Why do investors want to buy T-bonds with a weak dollar,
an over leveraged banking system and a runaway deficit
backed by a fiat curency suppor

As far as I am concerned, ebay is ONLY good for having lots of coin pictures and checking what people are paying for individual items.

My personal horror story is bidding on a gold coin ( and winning the auction ) in early December and waiting 4 weeks for the coin to arrive, after sending a money order for quick payment. No coin.

I emailed the source several times and was told ( after several days waiting ) that the partner in the coin shop selling on ebay had mistakenly sold MY COIN over the Christmas holiday. Bummer.

I'm still waiting for a replacement coin, or reimbursement of my cost before I nail this guy and his internet business ( and this was a source that had about 130 positive, and zero negative feedback responses ) .

I don't know anything about this company, but they post their prices daily. Currently their buy price is above $5K for silver 90's.

http://golddealer.com/forecast.html

Yahoo down 53 in pre market trading

Gollum, please move the yen lever dowm a little all the way. It seems to be a little out of wack with the other currencies. Thanks!!

I've seen this manipulation talk thrashed about alot here at Kitco, and I am new here. I don't know if I believe there is manipulation. I tend to think maybe there is. The consensus seems to be that gold should go up, and CB manipulation keeps it down. Ok. The way I am looking at it, do you can vegetables? If you use a pressure cooker, it is important that you let it cool down before opening. There are two bad ways to open a pressure cooker. You can force it open while it is hot. If you do, there will be a blast of live steam that will cause very serious harm. The other bad way to open a pressure cooker is to hold it closed. To seal the relief valve and to fix the safety core tight. This is what the manipulation appears to be doing. They are sealing to pressure cooker tight, yet the heat is still on. If you "open" a pressure cooker in this way there is an explosion and it will kill whoever was holding the relief valve closed and very seriously harm everyone in the room. It won't matter if they were holding gold or not, the blast will be devestating. I very much hope that Kitcoites are wrong about manipulation. I think the pressure cooker will open once in my life, and that will be enough for me. We watch this pot sputter and hiss together, yes?

Silverbaron your link in ( Y2K preparedness - risk matrix ) is a good one.

At the same time, while looking at that site, I ran across the article about US Senate. It says that they have a significant problem, not paying bills, etc. due to a glitch in their Y2K project. This is not true. Yes they have a problem but the problem not Y2K related. They started upgrade to their financial system before Y2K project, upgrade is behind the schedule and running into glitches. These two ( financial system upgrade and Y2K ) are run as two independent projects, different contractors, etc. Yet, which one is blamed? Y2K!! It ain't so! I wonder how many other reported failings are not really Y2K related.

Can Brazil's market drop 10% in less than 10 minutes! Its going to be close. Stay tuned!!

A man on his way home from work at the Pentagon came to a dead
halt in traffic and thought to himself, "Wow, this traffic
seems worse than usual. Nothing's even moving."

He notices a police officer walking back and forth between the
lines of cars so he rolls down his window and asks, "Excuse
me, officer, what's the hold up?"

The officer replies, "The President just found out Starr has
delivered another report to Congress and he's all depressed.
He stopped his motorcade in the middle of the Beltway and he's
threatening to douse himself in gasoline and set himself on
fire. He says his family hates him and he doesn't have the
$33.5 million he owes his lawyers. I'm walking around taking
up a collection for him."

"Oh, really? How much have you collected so far?"

"I've got a lot of folks still siphoning. Right now, I have
about 300 gallons."

Due to the hiring of outsiders to run the market at discount prices, it took 12 minutes. Sorry folks. No new world record today. But don't fret. We may get another shot at it tomorrow!!

Up 3.6%, hope you all bought tickets to the show.

Also, in the first hour of trading volume on Feb. gold has exceeded yesterday's volume.

sf99h

gc99g

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/livechart?mode?symbols=+INDEX:$INX

Looks like everything is going to get cheaper today except for government debt.

Phenomenal article by Joe Salerno: re: 'Mises as a Social Rationalist'[PDF format], link at bottom of the page: http://www.mises.org/default.asp

Makes Hayek read like 'Liberty Lite'...

The PPT ran for cover ! and gold is ONLY down $3+
GW

It's pay-back time ... eat this, Rubin & Greengrinch!

Wonder how long they can sit on the lid of Y2K pressure for gold & silver, eh?

On the otherhand, I've got these piles & piles of SILVW ... worth almost as much as the US $ are we going to make the March 9th expiration date?

Spud, 1776 II

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

Hey Bart Fix this thing!

Chart loading fine, but disscusion line a no show.

HighRise

( From a reliable, source who got it from a very reliable source, who is VERY well connected with powerful asian leaders ( nothing to do with another etc. ) ) "These leaders want to see STABLE currencies".
I wonder where the real pressure is coming from at Hong Kong and in what direction it is pointed? Stable currencies? Got Gold?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics".
---Benjamin Disraeli ( Former British Prime Minister ( many moons ago ) ( for the historically challenged amongst us ) ;- ) )
"Let us be thankful for fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." ---Mark Twain ( Famous American Author ( Samuel Clemens ) - for the literary challenged amongst us )
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." ---Albert Einstein ( Famous Canadian hockey player - Albert/Albert/Albert! ( Stupid Canadian joke I just made up - for those that are wondering. ) )
"This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it". ---Ralph Waldo Emerson ( Guy who hides in the Sunday funnies - Waldo ) I wonder if Mr. Emerson would buy Gold these days if he were around?

Is this a massive fake-out? The internet tulips are bouncing back ... someone must want them pretty bad. I await the NASDAQ - Ebay merger announcment.

Damn the PPT! Damn them all to Hell!!

( EB, send me an avocado nepenthe )

Spud, defiant! GO SILVER! WALK IT TO RUBIN!

See http://www.ajpm.com/htbin/silver.cgi
Their buy price is $5200/$1000face bag

Russia criticizes new U.S. sanctions

MOSCOW ( AP ) - Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov sharply criticized the United States today for imposing sanctions against three Russian institutions accused of helping the Iranian weapons program.
``Using force and exerting sanctions against our organizations is counterproductive for Russian-American relations, which we consider very important,'' Primakov told reporters.

And the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the sanctions ``can only complicate Russian-American relations.''

``Any attempts to speak to us in the language of sanctions and pressure are absolutely unacceptable,'' the ministry said.

Gennady Zyuganov, whose Communist Party dominates the Russian parliament's lower house, called the U.S. action an ``interference into domestic affairs of a sovereign state.''

``The United States imagines itself a policeman who has the right to dictate its will not only to nations, but to single universities, scientific laboratories and labor collectives,'' he said.

U.S. National Security adviser Sandy Berger announced the economic sanctions in Washington on Tuesday, banning U.S. exports to the institutions and ruling out any U.S. government assistance or procurement contracts with them.

The three institutions affected are the Moscow Aviation Institute, the Mendeleyev Chemical Technical University and the Scientific Research and Design Institute of Power and Technology. The United States accused the institutions of failing to prevent leaks of nuclear and missile technologies to Iran, although it did not specify the charges.

Lev Ryabev, Russia's first deputy minister of nuclear power, said the U.S. officials provided no evidence of any Russian cooperation with Iran that breached international non-proliferation agreements.

Last week, President Boris Yeltsin tightened government controls over the export of Russian technology that may be used to develop missiles. Yeltsin amended and broadened the list of items that will be banned for export in order to prevent the proliferation of missile technologies, the presidential press service said. It did not name the items.

Ryabev denied accusations against the latter institution, which his ministry oversees.

Pavel Sarkisov, the head of the Mendeleyev Chemical Technical University, also dismissed the allegations. He said he and the head of the Moscow Aviation Institute had appealed to U.S. officials to come and see that they had no forbidden contacts with Iranians.

A spokesman for the Iranian Embassy in Moscow, speaking on condition of anonymity, said today that his country had no contact with the named institutions with the exception of students studying at Mendeleyev.

BTW - Thanks to J.B. ( if you're tuned in today ) in the Southwest for that Asian contact info!
"You can fool too many of the people too much of the time."
------- James Thurber
"Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end; then stop."
--- Lewis Carrol, from Alice in Wonderland.
I believe I finally found that brand of coffee that Mike S. drinks every morning ( Y2-A crisis - really Mike! ) , or was it that dried up black stuff from Indian territory? )

RSMI announced that they are going into the patent business, testing technologies, etc. Nothing here about selling assets, but since they only had a couple thousand in the bank 2 weeks ago, the money must have come from somewhere. Hunker down for the Grand Central Silver reverse splitorama...

Oh, and RSMI's back down to .12/.16 from .19/.21 yesterday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990112/royal_silv_1.html

Copyright 1999 El Borak inc. Makers of Son of a Beach brand plastic shovels. You'll want to hear your kids say, "It's a real Son of a Beach".

Europe is VERY red. Some more than 5%. Anyone really think Europe would get hit harder by the problems in Brazil? I DON'T THINK SO. Those crazy dipsters are back. I read on another thread that the problems in Brazil will set off another derivative crisis.

BTW, who was the "dealer" you had the eBay coin problem with?

TIA,

gunrunnr@nwfl.net

Magazine bill misguided: U.S.
Helps rich publishers, hurts Canadian culture,
official says

Wednesday, January 13, 1999
BARRIE McKENNA and HEATHER
SCOFFIELD
The Globe and Mail

Washington and Ottawa -- BARRIE
McKENNA
in Washington
HEATHER SCOFFIELD
in Ottawa

The Clinton Administration says Ottawa's
latest bid to shield magazines from foreign
rivals is a misguided attempt to help two
wealthy publishers, and will hurt Canadian
culture.

A day after the United States spelled out the
hefty price that Canadian exporters will pay
for Ottawa's protectionist policies, a senior
U.S. trade official stepped up the attack with
a blistering condemnation of the motives
underlying the proposed federal ban on
foreign split-run magazines.

"The bottom line is, this is an issue that has
nothing to do with culture and everything
about trying to protect powerful publishing
interests from competition," the official, who
spoke on the condition that he not be named,
told reporters in a conference call yesterday.

The official accused Ottawa of pandering to
two "inefficient" Canadian publishers --
Montreal-based Telemedia Inc. and Rogers
Communications Inc. -- at the expense of
Canadian readers and other domestic
publishers. Telemedia publishes Canadian
Living, TV Guide and Harrowsmith. Rogers
owns Maclean Hunter Ltd., publisher of
Maclean's and Chatelaine.

Instead, Ottawa should throw open the doors
to full foreign competition, he said.

"More Canadian stories will not be the result
of C-55," the official said of the bill now
before Parliament that would outlaw
Canadian advertising in so-called split-run
magazines.

"In fact, Canadian stories, Canadian input,
would be much more prevalent in a dynamic
magazine industry in Canada, where
publishers were willing to enter new niches to
attract new readers."

Split-run magazines are Canadian editions of
American publications, such as Sports
Illustrated, which have minimal Canadian
content, but actively solicit advertising in
Canada.

Previous federal legislation has made it
uneconomic for most U.S. publications to
publish split-run editions. Exceptions are
long-running Canadian editions of Readers
Digest and Time.

Those two publications are to be exempted
from any new legislation. A vote on Bill C-55
is expected next month.

One Canadian publisher at the centre of the
swirling controversy characterized the U.S.
claims about the magazine bill as
"mind-boggling."

"The claim that this is just for Telemedia and
Maclean Hunter is an outright lie," said
Telemedia executive Franois de Gasp
Beaubien, chairman of the political affairs
committee of the Canadian Magazine
Publishers Association. He said the boards of
the CMPA, with 300 members, and Canadian
Business Press, representing 150 members,
unanimously support the bill.

Mr. de Gasp Beaubien added he's confident
Ottawa won't back down in the face of U.S.
sabre-rattling.

On Monday, deputy U.S. trade representative
Richard Fisher spelled out four likely targets
of U.S. trade retaliation at a meeting with
Raymond Chrtien, Canada's ambassador in
Washington. The U.S. list, presented orally to
Mr. Chrtien, includes steel, wood products,
textiles and apparel as well as plastics.

The United States has vowed to push ahead
with the sanctions as soon as Bill C-55 is
enacted. Canadian officials have been told the
measures could hit $3-billion to $4-billion
worth of Canadian exports from these
sectors.

Yesterday, some of the potential victims of
the looming culture trade war warned they
won't tolerate being caught in the crossfire of
a dispute they did not provoke.

A spokeswoman for the Canadian steel
industry urged Ottawa to find some kind of
compromise. "It would be really unfortunate
if the U.S. were to retaliate at a time when
[members of] the industry on both sides of
the border are working together," said Jean
Van Loon of the Canadian Steel Producers
Association.

The industry has already made its concerns
well known to Ottawa, but it won't take
further steps until it sees how Ottawa plans to
handle the U.S. threats, Ms. Van Loon said.

The United States is believed to have singled
out the steel industry for punishment because
it is heavily concentrated in the Hamilton
riding of federal Heritage Minister Sheila
Copps, architect of the magazine bill.

Ms. Copps won't be deterred on her
proposed magazine legislation by threats of
retaliation from the U.S. administration, a
spokesman for the minister says.

"This is our right, as a country, to make
legislation, and we intend to go forward with
it," said Jacques Lefebvre, adding that Bill
C-55 will be the first piece of legislation to be
dealt with by the House of Commons when it
resumes sitting at the beginning of February.

The controversial bill is slated to receive third
and final reading, and then be passed on to
the Senate, where it will go through another
set of committee hearings before the Senate
votes on it.

An aide to Trade Minister Sergio Marchi said
the minister would not react until a U.S.
retaliation list is actually published. "This is
irresponsible and unnecessary to escalate this
issue in this manner," said Leslie Swartman,
the minister's spokeswoman.

Canada could appeal for relief through
NAFTA or the World Trade Organization, or
even hit back with sanctions of its own. But
Ms. Swartman would say only that Ottawa
has "many options" at its disposal.

indicated a shell company was forming. IMO Silver would have to move substantially for either issue to come into play so this move by RMSI may find and fill a void.

All:

Once again we are treated to an example of what supports the stock market and what could kill it. Here we have another 'deflationary' event. Brazil goes down the tubes, taking with it the world's 8th largest economy. Does the US equity market really care? Not much. Why? The usual, the bond market loves it.

US liquidity ( money and credit growth ) is not largely dependant upon the economic prosperity of the rest of the world. In fact, it could well be argued that it is inversely related to the economic health of the rest of the world. If no one else in the world is in need of credit, it becomes a very cheap item here in the US. If no one else is in need of 'stuff' then that too becomes a cheap item here in the US. This combination allows for very low interest rates which support large scale credit growth with 'low' inflation. This is nirvana for the stock market. Stock prices do best in periods of expanding multiples not in periods of expanding earnings.

As I opined yesterday, this 'deflationary' episode lacks the oomph of the prior collapses. The price of copper is virtually unchanged and the bond market has already given back half of its peak gains. My guess is that this will prove to be a very short lived rally in bonds. If this is the case, then and only then will the equity holders feel the pain that must surely come.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/99/0125/6302082a.htm

net trading mania, indeed :- )

hmm..... how many people will get their pants knocked off if the net goes down ( or merely slows down significantly ) during a heavy trading day?

The Electronic Telegraph reported today: "Germany risked a new clash with Britain over the pace of European integration by calling yesterday for the national veto to be removed in most EU decision-making. The effect of such a change would be that decisions in sensitive areas such as taxation would be taken by weighted majority voting instead of unanimously, as at present...The voting issue was raised by Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, when he outlined to the European Parliament his country's plans for its six-month EU presidency. Bonn would be pressing for the change at the Cologne summit in June, he said. It wished to keep unanimous voting only for changes to EU treaties. He said the EU would suffer 'an institutional heart attack' unless it took 'bold steps' towards full integration, which would give 'the Europe of the past, the Europe of nationalism and war', no chance in the future. Referring to conflicts in the Balkans, Mr Fischer said: 'Both alternatives are at present the reality in Europe.' These are seen by German politicians as proof of the horrors caused by national rivalry and the absolute need for integration."

My usual quote service could not pull up Grand Central this morning. Do you have news of a split, etc. which could explain this?

D.A.: Interesting, isn't it? The US markets will behave very differently when the 'ol bottom line gets hit -- earnings. I have a relative who works in the chemical industry, and he says that the US investors in South America read just like the fortune 500. This is much more serious for the US than the SEAsia crisis. This time there is alot more at stake.

Either the market mania has completely lost touch with reality, or they expect the IMF etal to bail Brazil out. I would guess that the US markets will wake up to reality within the next twelve months.

Do you have any idea how bad the European corruption crisis in the EC Commission is? Are we about to have another financial crisis there? Or could this be delayed?

In analogy with 1929 -- I think the US markets were driven to a bullish frenzy as the rest of the world deflated -- until the US was the only market left. Flight to safety, dropping commodity prices, dropping interest rates drove the US markets up -- for a time.

Looks like its 'deja vu al over again' as Casey Stengel would say.

The PPT were at work.

Check out INTC on:
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

Put it on 2 minutes and you can see the ticks showing intervention quite clearly.
From 9:40 till just after 10am.

See how the ticks are very deep and far out of kilter with normal trading???

DELL & MSFT looks the same even YHOO

I bet there are many more.

The Prem went from - 5 to +14 when fair value is about 8.
So they went and did some buying.

They only pick on the big market caps as that's where the leverage is with indexing.

Trust PPT - sure can....^o-o^

J.P. Morgan's plan to talk Gold down to $265 by the end of the next fiscal quarter, so that they and their fellow blood-sucking investment bankers and scum-sucking hedge funds can cut their recent Yen carry trade losses, will be foiled....soon.

( This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an article...soon )

I find your posts priceless. Thank you and keep em coming...

Thanks for your post ( 11:59 ) . I logged onto Kitco just now for the sole purpose of stating that I can see clearly with my own eyes as I watch the Market, that "Intervention" is clearly taking place today; Big Time.

AG-"Bubba, we've got serious problems in Brazil. You had better call for a national televised announcement to calm the fears out there."

RR-"Bubba, don't worry, we'll keep our end of the bargain."

Bubba-"AG & RR, you had better make sure this market stays propped up until this impeachment BS goes away or you will really feel my wrath."

AG & RR-" See ya, gumba."


Same old story, will the Lemmings follow WJC, AG and RR over the cliff?
"You betcha."

Congratulations! You may already be a winner of one new Grand Central Silver share ( GSLMD ) for every ten old Grand Central ( GSLM ) shares you own.

Grand Central did a 1-10 this morning and will be GSLMD for 30 days. New price bid 3/4 ask 1 1/2. I haven't seen it out on Yahoo, but it's a done deal.

My condolences.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Republican Congress ( tm ) brand inaction figures. "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy" decoder ring sold separately.

Can you believe it? The people who are keeping this bubble alive now will be looked at in the future as the cause of the worst depression ever. The stock market is driving the economy. That alone says we are in VERY serious trouble. My guess is that since the US Markets have been rescued from the abyss while the rest of the world is disintegrating, it will take some outside NON-economic event that the PPT will not be able to control that will take this market down. I wonder what that DRUDGE REPORT story is?

Let's just pretend for a second that the events that are unfolding now are similar to those that happened during the 20's and 30's. Foreign countries dropping like flies one by one until the US is the only one left standing, then it and Europe both head into the tank. My question is, how did the dollar do through all that ? Isn't that what deflation, falling stocks, bonds, falling real estate, etc, means ? That the dollar is becoming more valuable ? That appears to be what has happened in Japan as it slipped into and continues falling down the tubes, the Yen has just become stronger as time goes on.

Thanks for your kind response to my post this AM. Using your new ticker symbol, I was able to find the requested data. GSLMD split factor is 8.0; Closed yesterday at 7/64, now at 3/4. Also, a large volume of insider selling has been recorded on YAHOO under the old symbol.

Isn't this Mammoth Drudge Report/Story supposed to come out tomorrow?
Is there any other news as to when it is supposed to arrive?

...a Joke! It is obviously "intervened". I am amazed by this constant Market intervention and I can't believe that "Joe Sixpack" doesn't see it!

Clinton hails Jordan's mind, body, spirit
1.22 p.m. ET ( 1823 GMT ) January 13, 1999
WASHINGTON ( AP )  President Clinton today offered his good wishes to the newly retired Michael Jordan, and urged Americans to "take a day or two to ooh and ahh'' as they remember the exploits of the greatest basketball player of his time.

"We wish Michael Jordan well,'' the president said during a ceremony at which he announced a plan to help disabled people find jobs. "We admire him, we like him very much and we thank him for years of thrilling exploits.''

The president spoke while Jordan, 35, was announcing his retirement in a news conference at Chicago's United Center.

Clinton praised the Chicago Bulls star as a man of superior athletic prowess who "had a body that would do things no one else's would do'' and willed himself to accomplish anything he decided to do.

"In my life, I don't know if I ever saw another athlete with such a remarkable set of qualities of mind, body and spirit,'' Clinton said. "I think it's appropriate that the sports fans around America take a day or two to ooh and ahh, and hold their breath again, and be glad again.''

The president offered his salute to Jordan on behalf of himself and "my wife from Chicago.'' First lady Hillary Rodham Clinton was in her hometown today to dedicate a new epilepsy monitoring center at a hospital.

http://www.foxnews.com click on wires heading at top of page...

http://business.fortunecity.com/david/131/

Why, that would mean... intergalactic connectivity for the internet. Would Yahoo split at 1000?

Senators Fit To Be Tied Over Impeachment Pens
10:58 a.m. ET ( 1559 GMT ) January 13, 1999

WASHINGTON  U.S. senators last week signed oaths in President Clinton's impeachment trial using ceremonial pens emblazoned with the misspelled words "Untied States Senator.''

"There's a spelling error here. But it's kind of prophetic in a way,'' Sen. Frank Lautenberg, a New Jersey Democrat, told CNN's "Late Edition'' program on Tuesday as he waved one of the pens.

"It says 'untied senators.' Now, I don't know if that means untied from party allegiance or untied from predispositions,'' he added. "But it's kind of an interesting word game we could play with it.''

Senators pledged they would do impartial justice in the Clinton case and signed their names in an oath book when the proceedings opened last Thursday.

The Senate on Friday averted a possible showdown over the first presidential impeachment trial in 1868, approving a bipartisan plan that could allow for witnesses. Opening arguments in the trial begin on Thursday.

http://www.foxnews.com click on WIRES at top of page..

I'm not sure the Internet could handle the switch, just think, we'd have to go out and modify all the root domain name servers to handle the new intergalactic addresses. And think about all the conflicts that would fall out of that as the Earth based Yahoo went into court with the Venus based Yahoo to fight over brand names and trademarks. Goldbugs would have to change their tune and start worrying about a single Universal order that wanted a single galactic fiat currency backed by debt. The DNS names would be annoying.

http://www.yahoo.com.earth.sol.milky-way.universe
http://www.yahoo.com.venus.sol.milky-way.universe
--
Gollum: That's enough equity rally, can't you do something ?

I have never seen these two so disconnected.

Could this drop in AU be a rubber-band phenomenon that will snap back up quickly?

POG off 0.72%
XAU off 1.12%

XAU looks to be following the wake of "intervention".

http://www.goldmoney.com/silver.html

Brazil - forget not when Thailand devalued, they went down 10% then down almost 100%

A 10% devaluation is wishful thinking. It's "real" value will be established when the ramifications become clear.

Actually, the address I made up just now reminds me of the days when the Internet felt like magic, way back when Usenet news was a dream and people did public downloads by emailing around lists that contained all the public ftp sites and what they had to offer, before archie, before the web. The following address:

http://www.yahoo.com.venus.sol.milky-way.universe

That makes you feel like the net is magic again, that it would be beautiful to be able to send data through the Universal gateways to points unknown, sites that are on other planets with different cultures. That's exactly what this site felt like not a decade ago when it was amazing that you could send data to London in a matter of seconds.

http://www.westair-repro.demon.co.uk

on any thought of reverse splits. I have yet to see one work out for shareholders but do expect RANGY to be the exception. My trust is in John Disney on this. The OTC listing excuse has just been a smoke screen for a rash of this anti shareholder tactic.

How about something like this ?

http://www.shareintl.org/

I've met the man ( Benjamin Creme ) behind this story. Suffice it to say, IMHO he is no millenium times cult leader at all. Quite the reverse.

My mind is still open to whether or not this is for real, so to speak. Read the story with a similarly open mind yourselves.

Mint runs short of gold, silver coins
Y2K panic cited as contributing factor in
demand


By Jon E. Dougherty
 1999 WorldNetDaily.com

Because of unprecedented demand, the U.S. Mint has
announced they are out of certain types of gold, silver
and platinum coins and won't have any new ones
minted until spring.

"The five coin proof set, silver proof set and premier
silver proof set, and the 10 coin uncirculated set are
no longer available," said the Mint in an official
statement.

According to details published on the U.S. Mint
Website, sales of certain precious metal coins and coin
sets rose dramatically last year, surpassing the 1
million-ounce mark for the first time since 1987.

In August, the Mint said American Eagle gold bullion
had sold 1,025,000 ounces compared to about 489,000
ounces during the previous year, an increase of about
110 percent.

Mint officials believe the increased demand is likely to
remain high well into 1999.

"The intense interest in the 1998 sets promises to carry
over into the New Year as we introduce the first
annual sets containing 50 State Quarters," said Mint
Director Philip N. Diehl in a press release.

Robby Noel, co-owner of the Patriot Trading Group
-- a precious metals wholesaler -- said the demand
for gold and silver coins has gone up sharply because
of fears over the Y2K millennium bug and the
prospect for runs on cash and because of the
perception of instability in Washington with the
Clinton administration.

"If you look at units sold in gold there is an interesting
fact," Noel said. "At the start of 1998 when most
people thought Clinton was toast, sales went up
mainly for one ounce units As the country moved into
spring things cooled off politically and so did sales."

Noel pointed out that the Mint's own figures
substantiate another sharp increase in sales by
mid-summer because of concerns over the economic
calamities facing Russia, Asia and South America.

"Y2K awareness has also been a contributing factor,"
Noel said. "The smallest U.S. Eagle ( gold coin ) , the $5
tenth of an ounce unit, started to skyrocket," and that
unit is one of the most affordable.

Noel said that the price of precious metals reported
on Wall Street "has nothing to do with the real world
of precious metals," where gold and silver are traded
on paper and "players never have any intention of
taking delivery." Physical metal buyers -- in this case,
ordinary consumers -- who actually take possession
of the metals they buy is what has led to recent
shortages.

"Can the U.S. Mint keep up with demand? Maybe,"
he said, "but if  stockpiles are any indication the
answer is no."

Current gold holdings in the U.S. Treasury are about
260 million ounces, he said, but production is also
down because the prices are depressed. Consequently,
he explained, there is a phenomenon occurring where
gold and silver are relatively inexpensive at the retail
level even though demand is high and production has
fallen off.

"As for 1999, the prices ( retail customers pay ) may not
rise, per se, however premiums could explode," he
said. For example, a junk bag of silver, which should
be selling for about $3,700 is currently priced at $5,600.
"The price of silver has not changed yet, but the
supply and demand factors have caused a huge
premium increase," Noel said.

He also said the price of gold is typically very
"political." That's because governments traditionally
use the price of gold as an indicator of the people's
confidence in their paper currencies. "The dollar is a
perception of value" rather than an actual one, he
said.

"I have no doubt we will test this perception real
soon," Noel predicted. "The Euro ( the new unified
European currency ) is trying to sell perception after a
week and it doesn't look good yet. That's good news
for the dollar -- for now."

About the XAU; the market makers opened the gold
shares down considerably today; effecting the XAU which closed yesterday at....69.99....and opened this morning at....67.63.... The XAU seems to have made up a good amount of the drop caused by the market maker judgement of the gold shares. They can open any security points above or below the last closing price, based on experience. This could also be some early manip's for the PPT.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=t

Down to 250, massive washout then insider buying, most goldbugs will be long gone. Duration 2-3 years ,and they will gladly take the option money until that dog don't hunt.

About the XAU; the market makers opened the gold
shares down considerably today; effecting the XAU which closed yesterday at....69.99....and opened this morning at....67.63.... The XAU seems to have made up a good amount of the drop caused by the market maker judgement of the gold shares. They can open any security points above or below the last closing price, based on experience. This could also be some early manip's for the PPT.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=t

Date: Mon Jan 11 1999 12:59
Gollum ( The Fledgling ) ID#424140:
Janus wears two faces as he stands guard over the new born phoenix. With the birth, the falcon rests, it's task of air support over for the nonce, and the snake comes to the for.

That which was is no more, nothing is as before.

These are the times of lore, the times of legend, make no mistake.

The young fldgling moves fro it's nest three days hence.

About 7 points away from a new low.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ECRB&d=t

I've been watching these dips for the last year or so and from what I've seen the extremely deep ticks is the best example of intervention.

Those and the Prem acting wildly.

It''s like they're leaving a slimy trail behind them.

They like to target the biggest market caps as they can move the indexes the most and win back the publics confidence that the markets aren't in danger.

It's unusual for them to be doing it so early in the piece - the dow's barely come off it's high.
Normally they wait till the markets are lower and there's more fear present.

I'm not sure of the figures but Europe seemed to be off a lot more than at other times when the markets are falling hard.

I'd hazard a guess that there's a lot more nervousness out there than most realise. Perhaps some really bad news.

Som thing really rocked the boat that forced the PPT to intervene like they did.
We could well be on the verge of the big one.
Last Oct & Mar 98 and the Oct in 97 never played out like this.

Something serious is up....

Do you have a new homepage address?if yes please could you provide me with it?Thanks

In the 1920s, there was a new technology that allowed people to invest ( play ) in the stock market. Joe Sixpack could place an order instantly by telephone. That same technology caused a panic as people placed "sell" orders. ( Just like the net? )

One big difference: In the 1920s, the government had not yet figured out how to manipulate the economy. This time, theyll just crank-up the old printing presses to stimulate the economy. The result this time? Inflation. Is there ANYONE that believes the government wont try to spend our way out of ANY mess?

Y2K will cause the initial panic later this year. If you dont believe this, why isnt there ONE company ( or government agency ) that says its ready for Y2K. JUST ONE?

Social Security said that theyre systems were ready to PAY BENEFITS. They DID NOT say that they were ready to pay their employees, pay bills, send invoices, process applications......

Here's one example. By June, the US NRC will shut down 110 nuclear plants in the US. These produce 20% of the electricity in the USA, and NONE are ready for Y2K. The problem isnt in the plants. Its the computers that control the nationwide grid. The plants MUST have a source of external power to cool the reactors, even when the plant is shut-down. ( About ten years ago there was a major incident in Georgia when a Teamster backed his truck into a transformer outside the plant. The emergency generators would not start, and the guys in the control room had about 15 minutes to figure out how to obtain electricity through the plant next door! )

We're not going back to the "stone age", but there are going to be some major problems!

I posted the info on the golden eagles a few days ago.

Here's a more complete list.
http://www.usmint.gov/catalog/sold_out.cfm

APH: What's happening with silver? March hit 5.07 today before turning
somewhat. Is this the bounce you were expecting? ( IYHO of course )
I bailed out of some at 5.14; still holding my 4.95.

Well, at least next year when Realistic gets around to posting my 1999 predictions, they won't be 100 percent wrong. One of them came true today, who can say if the others will or not.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:46
Envy ( 1999 Predictions ) ID#219363:
Copyright 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sure, I'll take my chances *grin*. My 1999 predictions are: Gold and Oil haven't seen the bottom. Japan's Nikkei will hit 10000. South America will devalue. Interest rates will continue to fall. More trade barriers around the world. Increased violence in middle east and asia. More layoffs in manufacturing and production, especially in the United States, credit crunch in some sectors. Dollar will soar vs. everything. Real estate prices will fall especially in rural areas. Consumer confidence will be off. I think this will be the year of the dollar, the year you don't want to be making, mining, building, or selling stuff. This will be the year for cash. CRB could see 160, silver off a buck or more, new housing starts down. Increasing labor tensions around the world. That's what I think anyway.

I sold my Jan 625 puts this morning at 17 ( purchased at 5 ) , Crystal Ball I hope you hung in there. Bought the Jan 620 calls at 5, market should retest this weeks highs. Added to my March silver at 5.10 ( per previous post ) stop ( mental ) at 5.00. Offset my short gold and reversed long at 286, stop 284. Fox-Man, I do bonds but haven't in the last few weeks, I'll hold off on an opinon for now.

I sold my Jan 625 puts this morning at 17 ( purchased at 5 ) , Crystal Ball I hope you hung in there. Bought the Jan 610 calls at 5, market should retest this weeks highs. Added to my March silver at 5.10 ( per previous post ) stop ( mental ) at 5.00. Offset my short gold and reversed long at 286, stop 284. Fox-Man, I do bonds but haven't in the last few weeks, I'll hold off on an opinon for now.

The CBOE volatility Index........The VIX.X has recovered the huge move it made this morning, pulled back down and filled a gap on the chart and now is getting more volatile again.... This is a good short term term indicator as to reversals. Looks like another SQUALL is coming.
CoBra

I sold my Jan 625 puts this morning at 17 ( purchased at 5 ) , Crystal Ball I hope you hung in there. Bought the Jan 610 calls at 5, market should retest this weeks highs. Added to my March silver at 5.10 ( per previous post ) stop ( mental ) at 5.00. Offset my short gold and reversed long at 286, stop 284. Fox-Man, I do bonds but haven't in the last few weeks, I'll hold off on an opinon for now.

I sold my Jan 625 puts this morning at 17 ( purchased at 5 ) , Crystal Ball I hope you hung in there. Bought the Jan 610 calls at 5, market should retest this weeks highs. Added to my March silver at 5.10 ( per previous post ) stop ( mental ) at 5.00. Offset my short gold and reversed long at 286, stop 284. Fox-Man, I do bonds but haven't in the last few weeks, I'll hold off on an opinon for now.

That ain't Prince Albert your smoking!! Edgar Allen Gollam--

Interesting about the 110 nuke plants shutting down, can you document that? Funny how CNN is reporting that there aren't any planned shutdowns. In fact, the only place I've seen any mention of shutdowns is on WorldNetDaily, a "dubious" source at least.

How can the y2k panic not be good for Gold? Plenty of people spreading paranoia, after all.

For repeat posts

What happened to silver?

The spot 5.05 gap has been filled. See my post of last night @ 23:26. I know I am a new guy, but these markets are not new to me. This was called to the penny.

Here's a link about Nuke plant shutdowns.

http://members.aol.com/jrodman527/power.html

There was a recent incident in Scotland ( I believe at Christmas ) in which the nuclear generating plant was operating over a holiday with a reduced work force, and a terrific storm hit the plant. This caused the plant to go into an emergency shutdown, and because of the storm damage and lack of local infrastructure support, the backup generators running the emergency cooling pumps RAN OUT OF FUEL. It was only a short time before the system would have gone into meltdown, when it was rescued. This incident should have been a major wakeup point for Y2K.

This story was only on the net for one or two days, then it seems to have disappeared. As far as I know, it never hit the U.S. news media.

Would anyone here know the approximate total number of $1000 bags of 90% US silver coins that are on the market?

53% say banking system will be disrupted.
"Only" 38% believe there will be riots and social unrest.
"Only" 9% believe the world will end.

http://cnn.com/US/9901/10/y2k.poll/index.html

Whether perceived or real, when the sheople learn about what could happen, Y2K will not be a non-event.

Don Hays' Market Update -- January 13, 1999 Picture About Don Hays Click here for an archive of Don Hays Commentaries.If you would like to receive more information or talk with a Financial Consultant, click here to find our office nearest you.Today's Comments

Very obviously the stock market is really getting jolted today as the Finance Minister of Brazil has resigned, and their currency is for all practical purposes getting devalued this morning. This is a potential huge domino that will start the process again. In the last two months optimism has soared, with the advisory services registering 58% bullish sentiment last week ( this week's number released today ) and our equity put/call ratio indicator reached the highest level of optimistic speculation in relation to its normalized level in the last ten years. With this optimism, the S & P 500 moved to an extreme level of valuation as discussed in painful detail in Monday's comment.

In effect, with the wall of worry showing a lot of "wear and tear" and the valuation composite way out of kilter, the stock market has lost its shock absorber. With no shock absorber, every little pebble creates a shock that goes directly to the bones of those riding the vehicle. Today's huge Brazilian "devaluation" is a lot more than a pebble, but a huge boulder.

In my opinion, another huge boulder occurred over the weekend when creditors of the failed Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corp ( Gitic ) and Chinese officials called the creditors together and said "tough luck," you are under Chinese law, and that is whatever we want it to be. The confidence factor of those bankers who got caught up in the enthusiasm of China's fabricated press releases has had a rude awakening. This is a huge boulder.

And then there is Japan. Are you noticing the Nikkei Dow inching down toward a new low ( and fortunately for them, their market closed before the news from Brazil was released ) ? On Monday the yen had rallied to 108 against the dollar. That put another big problem for the Japanese officials trying to avoid a 1929 type of disaster. The strengthening yen created all kinds of immediate "knee-jerk" comments from US officials threatening Japan with major trade sanctions. What to do? On one hand they are trying to bail out their economy with huge government deficit spending, selling US and their own ( JGB ) government bonds to pay their bills, but that creates weakness in those two bond markets ( and a weak dollar. ) But then now comes big Uncle Sam that threatens massive reaction, so they have to buy dollars through US t-bills. What a mess! Round and round they go. First in one direction and then in another in a dizzy chase, but actually just digging themselves into a bigger ditch. This is a humongous boulder.

We believe that this is the beginning of the next round of dominoes falling, and this round will be worst than the last. As we discussed last week, when the world was celebrating the introduction of the Euro currency, and the German stock market was soaring, we believe this is very bad news for those European markets. They are export driven economies, and this news is bad for their banks. It is significant that right before all this occurred, the formerly very staid Deutsche Bank had purchased the high flying, derivative trading Bankers Trust. It is very significant that the German political environment has changed dramatically, with Gerhard Schroeder being elected Chancellor heading a new party for Germany that is much more liberal than Helmut Kohl's had been. But they did not win a clear majority of the votes, so they had to link up with an ultra-liberal Green party who utters words that sound like doing away with those dirty old corporations that are messing up their environment. Already their economic news appears to be losing its vigor with the unemployment rate moving back up to 10.8%. We also hear that Schroeder has big trouble from independent action by some of his cabinet appointments that he had to give to win the election. It is rumored that he gave them promises of independence in their arena. No one is in charge. So we suspect that with this new domino falling that compounds the problem even more. In our opinion, the German market is about to suffer from a big hangover from the celebration they had last week. This is very similar to the celebration that the Hang Seng index had in July 1987 when China took them over. Wow, what a headache they are feeling.

I guess we shouldn't worry. We have St. Greenspan, and St. Rubin and they will pull out another miracle. I'm not so sure that their halo can stand the heat.

Do you get the idea that the whole world stinks? Me too. We won't use the term Super-tanker, since someone else has already worn that one out, but we would say that the big old stretch Limousine has no shock absorbers, and this morning it is 4-wheeling through the canyon boulder fields. Fasten your seat belts.

As you know, our asset allocation model missed becoming much more defensive on Monday morning because the t-bill rate had dropped under the discount rate by .02%. With the extremes of valuation that caused us intense pain, but we chose to keep our allocation the same and remain very sensitive to upcoming action. Even more disturbing, that small decline in the t-bill rate most likely was an artificial result of temporary buying of t-bills trying to shore up the dollar. We are going to monitor that very closely, especially with no shock absorbers attached, and will take defensive action as required if our fail-safes look endangered. For those of you who cannot take the risk of 25% + declines in the market or individual stocks, we would advise setting strict 10% stop losses on your stock positions at this point.

back to top

From what I have seen, people seem to run to bonds in a fright to quality. Long bonds seem to party when stocks go down. So, lets say stocks fall 30 %. Long bond yields go to 4.25. Where is gold at ?? 200 or 400?

http://www.year2000.com/archive/survey.html

.

That's ancient history.

We're seeing lots of Y2K posts about the coming calamaties, that the nuke power plants will shut down, TEOTWAWKI will happen. Yet DOE's most recent quarterly report Jan 11, 1999 clearly stated that the nuke plants WILL NOT be shut down. Comments, anyone?

gold plummets euro goes up ....paper games from europe will be no different then paper games of the Fed, maybe even more insidious.

Euro is not gold linked in the slightest, may as well wipe your arse with it....two rolls of loo paper in the reserve "currency" toilet now...hurrah.

Euro wreck within the year, they couldn't have concocted a bigger f#$%up stategy if they tried. This will definitely pull the world into major depression....only a matter of time.....just what the gold frigging ones desire.

Time has arrived for major upheaval, parasites will be purged but will the body of humanity survive the poisoning?

Financiers and lawyers should be killed on sight....economists should be pitied for there stupidity.

Folks, this internet "thing" is so loaded with misinformation, speculation, and outdated materials ( especially about Y2K ) that I am giving up. That page by itself is based on wrong technical information ( or interpretation ) of correct technical info. E.g., GPS will not "expire", is not "controversial", etc..

Each of these "technical" presentations start with "imagine that " well, sorry, most of technical staff does not work on "imagination" but on hard facts and these are missing! It's interesting to see on Internet how many causal outsiders become more acknowledged technical experts than people who worked in a specific field for many years.

As usual, this post does not try to say that Y2K is non-event - I should know as I am spending the last few years of my life on it, however, sometimes you reach the point when "enough is enough"!!

I get the distinct feeling that it won't much matter whether the nuke plants shut down or not. It would have been like passengers arguing whether the Titanic's generators would keep the lights on while the ship slowly slips beneath the icy waves. Like the man said in many a spy thriller: "The situation is fluid..."

Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.67. The 233 day moving average is 29.72

XAU/Spot Ratio = .243. The 233 day moving average is .247

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990113/V000035-011399-idx.html

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

On Alan Greenspan:

"Greenspan has made the Federal Reserve and U.S. financial markets the laughing stock of financial history. His legacy is an absurd credit bubble that even Sakikibara of the Japanese MOF and Financial Times commentators criticize. Bailing out Meriwether, Mexico, Brazil, etc. by expanding credit every time there is a hint of a crisis is directly responsible for stock market giddiness and dollar/yen weakness.

"Greenspan and Rubin will go down in history as the Abbott and Costello of American financial history -

"Greenspan and Rubin will go down in history as the Abbott and Costello of American financial history -

"Greenspan and Rubin will go down in history as the Abbott and Costello of American financial history -

the irresponsible charlatans who let the party get so out of control that America blew its life savings on a stock market bubble right before the economy and markets went into the biggest post-WW2 economic contraction."

as they provide a yardstick upon which to guage the deluge of information being put out...it is virtually...nice pun huh...impossible to determine what will happen when the tiny TICK occurs...and the reason is quite simple...NOBODY knows how all the systems, etc. will interact...

DEar farfel,


Well there you go now...despite the dramatic sale of almost 70% of their reserves,
Aussieland is still retaining 80 tons. If gold were beocming as worthless as you seem to
contend, then you would think Aussieland would have dumped the whole load

*************************************************************************

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said gold was worthless. Otherwise I wouldn't hold any. I just said that I'm not expecting a rally anytime soon because of the uncertainty over european CB holdings.

*************************************************************************


Oh, really, well I don't seem to remember this major economic crisis you describe. Here in
sunny, warm, Los Angeles, I don't remember any hardship...no gas lines...no essential
commodity shortages...no bank failures...no notable stock market crash...no collapse in the
value of the American Dollar... nothing very dramatic happened here in AMERICA. When
the economic crisis hits America, the linchpin of the world capitalist system, then tell me just
how much more valuable paper articles of faith ( e.g., the American Buck ) will be relative to
hard assets with real intrinsic value.

*************************************************************************

This may come as a shock to you farfel, but America is not the centre of the world. Asia is in deep do-dos, Brazil has devalued, Russia has defaulted, etc etc. That is a crisis. And gold fell along with everything else.

*************************************************************************

America hasn't been saying what it will do with its gold...yet most people seem unconcerned.
Why should we be concerned with what Europe will do with its gold?

*************************************************************************

No-one is concerned with US gold because they haven't sold any for 20 years and won't becuase Greenspan believes in the stuff. What happens when he goes??

Europe on the other hand, has had steady sales for the last ten years. That's why everyone is talking about Europe.

************************************************************************

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990113/bl9.html

these guys are the largest supplier of programmable logic controllers in industry. These are the computers which run ladder logic programs monitoring critical systems, fire, gas sensing, reactor cooling water temperature, etc. Mostly they just sit there doing nothing until an emergency arises...which it hardly ever does, how ever if these systems are taken off line or suspect then the actual plant will be shutdown unless they decide to jump without the parachute and take their chances ( the plant managers that is ) .

Note the reassurance on nothing and the disclaimer twice as long.

http://www.modicon.com/

Personally I have commission programmed these machines in '90-'93 for North Sea BP oil rigs and British Nuclear Fuels. The paper work just to open the cabinets is horrendous, to modify a single "wire connection" requires a committee meeting. Generally they do not have date fields in the code but once in a while a desperate commisioning engineer may have found using a date counter fixed that persistent bug before the commissioning manager came down like a ton of bricks.....am I an expert, i don't think so but my guess is as good as the next guy.

My guess is they will not run these plants if the safety systems are suspect and these are the most conscientious corporate citizens, the more cavalier will just run anyway...maybe some interesting fireworks!...Piper Alpha all over... Expect major disruptions in oil and gas supplies, expect nuclear plants world over to be shutdown, generally these take months to take on and off line.

What really annoys me is that most of the "experts" will not just come and say, "we don't really know what will happen so systems will have to be shutdown", this is common practise in industry. They all know that they will have to shutdown or risk lives....but they will risk lives of the citizenry if they do shutdown en masse.

Perhaps there will be a new breed of "wild cat" operators willing to risk life and limb for the good of the over consuming energy greedy populace, US consumes 25% of world's energy output being only 4% of world's population....who's gonna hurt most from energy supply lockup?

All: Lets think like the NRC for a moment. Lets also assume that none of the nuclear power plants are y2k compliant at the current time. It takes time to completely shut down a nuclear power plant, and an external source of power is needed -- for months. Same is true for the start up. Alot of mass has to heat up and cool off. Much much more than one of those gas, oil or coal fired plants. And of course, failures/mistakes cannot be permitted with a nuclear power plant.

If the nuclear power plants are y2k compliant, we should be relieved somewhat, as they would then be less likely to fail than their conventional counterparts, many of which depend on reliable railroad deliveries of coal.

Conclusion: It makes alot of sense for the NRC to order the nuclear power plants to be y2k compliant by, say July 1999. That gives them time to shut down if the Utilities fail to meet compliance.

What does that mean for us? First -- the NRC is doing its job if this is so, even if they are assuring the public that there will be no nuclear shutdowns. Secondly, we will be able to find out months in advance of y2k that Nuclear power plants are being shut down, and prepare accordingly.

Just think about France, where most of their electricity is Nuclear.

By the way, there is talk coming out of professional circles that the El Nino is not yet over -- wouldn't it be interesting if we had another hot summer going into y2k? Brownouts galore, even without y2k effects? If as we suspect y2k problems begin soon, the public will not know the 'routine' brownout from the 'y2k-related' brownout. You can imagine what will happen, as the perception of a problem is often more important than the problem.

If I'm so wrong, why does the price of gold continue to fall in the wake of financial disasters all around the world??

I have it before me and it looks intact, can you give us a number for the current lower channel to be broken? Your opinion on today's Dow/A&P would be appreciated. Most importantly would you please let us know when the Dow makes you very uncomfortable? THANKS!

"MARKET UPDATE ( 1/13/99 ) Gold continued its trek south despite
the fact that stock markets around the globe are taking a pounding"

NY Precious Metals Review: Gold trims Brazil-driven loss

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Jan 13--After dropping to a 4 1/2 month low of $285 per ounce
early today on Brazil's defacto currency devaluation, Apr gold managed to
claw back some of its losses to settle down $2.30 at $287.00. Silver had
also slumped on the Brazil news, coupled with weakness in gold, with Mar
sliding to a 1-week low of $5.07 per ounce. Like gold, silver trimmed some
of its losses and Mar settled down 5.5c at $5.19.
* * *
The Brazil devaluation put pressure on the dollar, and while a weaker
dollar would normally support precious metals, it is not having this effect
because the yen did not moving higher, said James Steel, analyst at Refco.
"With European currencies up such as the Deutsche Mark and Sterling,
it's not supportive like a yen climb," said Steel.
Similarly, there was no "safe-haven" buying said one trader, noting
that Brazil's Real devaluation had followed on the heels of Wednesday's
negative news, effectively "deflating" market sentiment.
The real's trading band was widened in the defacto devaluation this
morning after the country's central bank president resigned.
"Brazil was bearish for gold--it's not perceived to be a safe haven.
Bonds were clearly the safe haven in this instance," he commented.
Another trader expressed frustration with gold's move on Brazil,
complaining that such a response was "foolish." "It's not a reason to sell
gold, but if people decide to sell it down, what can you do?" he said.
One source noted that concern could be brewing that the Brazil central
bank would have to dispose of some of its reserves if its financial
situation deteriorates.

you'll need to click on Year2000 results hypertext to get at what I'm on about.

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GOLD'S DELAY: There is usually a delay between a shock to the financial markets and a rally in gold. For example, the stock market began to decline on July 21 of last year, but gold initially fell along with the market until the end of August, after which it staged a strong surge. A similar situation occurred repeatedly in 1929-1937, in 1973-1974, in 1987-1988, and in late 1989. Not surprisingly, in the current unstable global economic environment, gold's initial reaction is to decline along with everything else. Therefore, there is currently an excellent buying opportunity ahead of gold's inevitable upward move.

http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/

Well there you are. As long as the Europeans are coy about what they're doing with their gold, the Andy Smiths of this world will continue to right articles like the following.


http://www.afr.com.au/content/990114/feature/feature1.html

The end of the gold era

By Stephen Wyatt

Nothing is stopping the demonetisation of gold. The
metal's key role as a monetary standard has been in
decline ever since the United States dropped the gold
standard in 1971, and its reduced status was highlighted
this month with the introduction of a major new currency,
the euro.

Still the second largest asset of the world's central banks,
gold did not rate a mention in the launch of the euro.
Never before in the history of major currency reform has
gold not played a prominent part. A sea change is
occurring in the gold market.

It seems we are "moving further away from metal money.
The residual role of gold has been undermined," said
Andy Smith, commodities analyst with Mitsui Metals in
London.

The attention of traders and analysts has been squarely
focused on the potential impact of the euro on the US
dollar as the world's omnipotent reserve currency; on the
value of other currencies relative to the euro and whether
Europe will be able to adequately harmonise policies,
especially on taxation, to give the euro longevity.

So what of the old common currencies -- gold and silver
? Do they have a place in the new euro world.

For silver, the game was up a century ago. Back in the
1870s silver lost its place in the global financial system.

In 1871, the silver standard or a bi-metallic standard
applied to the currencies used by 80 per cent of the
world's population. Within a decade, silver was
effectively demonetised.

"The monetary world as 95 per cent of people knew it
was obliterated," said Andy Smith.

This was a result of exploding silver mine production,
imploding Indian demand and an official stampede away
from silver as a reserve currency.

National treasuries, especially Germany, stopped buying
silver and started liquidating some of the silver they held.
In 1869 Norway transformed its reserves from silver to
gold. In 1871, Germany withdrew silver coins and
introduced gold Reichs Munze -- one tenth of this unit
was known as the mark. In 1873 the US suspended the
free coinage of silver as did the Latin Monetary Union in
1874.

The silver price crashed. It was all over for silver in just a
decade after 200 years of trading within a 3 per cent
range against gold. This left gold as the only metal to
back money in almost all countries.

Now with gold's lack of prominence in the new European
Monetary System and the abandonment of the gold
standard over the 20th century, analysts and traders are
asking whether gold might be repeating silver's 19th
century performance ?

"In 1870 international monetary front events seemed to
be unfolding for silver in a sequence uncannily close to
today's in gold," said Smith.

He points to an unstable monetary union in Europe back
then, with the UK outside looking in, European central
bank silver sales, a lingering faith that the "East" would
soak up any official ( treasury ) sales by the "West" and
modest supply deficits of silver in the 1870s ( excess of
fabrication demand over mine plus scrap supply ) that
were filled by official sales. Sound familiar ?

And the history of gold over this century shows its role in
the international monetary system has steadily weakened.
The gold standard was dropped by Britain in 1931, by
the US in 1971, the obligation to accept gold payment
amongst IMF members was removed in 1978, the Swiss
are diluting the gold backing of the Swiss franc, and
central banks ( Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium,
Australia and Austria ) have been steadily selling down
their gold holdings. Perhaps more importantly those
banks are no longer major buyers of gold.

Back in 1960 the world's central banks held about
two-thirds of the gold ever mined.

"For most of recorded history, State treasuries were
astonishingly acquisitive [of gold]," said Tony
Warwick-Ching of UK-based commodity research
group CRU International. "But now with the growth of
currency blocks, co-ordination and free convertibility, it
is difficult to see central banks as offering any sustained
demand for gold in the long-term," he said.

Now, with the launch of the euro, gold has been
marginalised.

For the past two years, the gold price tells this story. It
has fallen from $US415 ( $658 ) an ounce in early 1996
to $US290 today, after hitting 18-year lows of $US273
early last year.

The primary reason for gold price weakness is that the
market has been spooked by fears that the world's
central banks and multilateral agencies, which hold about
34,000 tonnes of gold, will steadily reduce their holdings,
just as they reduced their silver holdings, 100 years ago.

The European Monetary Union, the formation of the
European Central Bank ( ECB ) and the euro launch might
have had a significant impact on gold. In fact, it could
have been gold's saviour.

In the middle of last year the gold market was on edge
about just how the ECB might structure its reserves. A
significant gold holding as part of the ECB's asset
portfolio could have given gold a much needed face-lift
and raised its status back towards being a reserve
currency.

"Because EMU ( European Monetary Union ) will be a
major step in the evolution of the international monetary
system, the composition of the ECB's reserves is being
viewed with keen interest by those who toil each day to
produce and sell gold," said Robert Pringle of the World
Gold Council back then.

Many gold producers and some analysts felt gold might
rediscover a role in today's global financial system if the
European Union endorsed its role as a reserve currency.

But it was a fizzer. The ECB decided to hold 15 per cent
of its reserves ( 39.5 billion euros - $72.6 billion ) in gold.
At current market prices, the ECB will hold around 670
tonnes of gold, leaving nearly 12,000 tonnes of gold
reserves with the national central banks.

What will happen to that 12,000 tonnes of surplus gold?

Some analysts do not see the level of ECB gold reserves
as all that important. The World Gold Council -- a body
representing gold producers -- argues that the ECB ". . .
will have effective control over all of the reserves -- both
foreign exchange and gold -- of all of the member
countries". It is control that is important, not the amount
of gold held by the ECB.

This, says George Milling-Stanley of the World Gold
Council, is in the Maastricht Treaty itself.

But interpretations of Maastricht, like beauty, are often in
the eye of the beholder.

"The Maastricht Treaty is unclear on the level of control
over the reserve assets remaining with national central
banks," said Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst with
the Macquarie Bank group.

Right now the formation of the euro is more like another
episode in gold's demise as a reserve currency, rather
than a reprieve for gold and its demonetisation process.

"This single event will not alter the fact that the
mobilisation of gold is on. It's wishful thinking that this is a
simple event risk. The structural issues remain," said
Andy Smith of Mitsui Metals.

It's a long time since Isaac Newton, master of the mint of
England in 1717, fixed the price of the gold guinea, so
called because of the African elephant on it, to 20 silver
shillings. He did this to check the rise in the price of gold
as commerce and trade with the East expanded.

This was the beginning, albeit an unofficial one, of the
gold standard.

For the next 254 years gold dominated world financial
markets. But after Britain dropped the gold standard in
1931 and the US in 1971, gold has steadily lost its
financial status and moved from currency to commodity.

And the launch of the euro did nothing to enhance gold's
fading financial status.

APH - The crowd awaits. Prognostications Please! ( Especially Silver - for the moonman! )
tolerant1 and Spock - Be not troubled - The other-worldly travelers will soon send Gold soaring!
May The Force Be With You!

My, my, my, there certainly seems to be a lot of pessimism in the air. Perhaps we need a little demonstration of the power of the Phoenix.

Early in the morn, before the break of dawn.

We will celebrate the rising of the sun.

Date: Tue Jan 13 1998 21:35
glenn ( time to buy ) ID#376309:
For the first time in as long as I can remember I believe that the low is in for the metals. I'm buying gold stocks on the open wednesday and will be buying options also ( HM leaps and Gold calls ) . Gold's action looks real good. It's time to buy.

Date: Tue Jan 13 1998 18:32
farfel ( @LGB...YOUR 13:00 POST IS PREPOSTEROUs ( and it's wrong too ) ) ID#28585:
...In other words, gold's strength at this point is simply a future indicator, foreshadowing a substantive equities and bond collapse...

Date: Tue Jan 13 1998 03:42
farfel ( @Newtron re:23:44 POST...You've got it, man... ) ID#28585:
Stagflation is where we are headed...shades of the early '80's...and a meteoric gold blast unlike any other!

Does anyone know what's up with the PPI?

Can we celebrate this along with The end of the business cycle?

I'm not saying anything should be celebrated. I am suggesting that the investment decisions made by goldbugs should take into account the 'new paradigm'. It doesn't matter if you agree with the 'new paradigm' or not, just change your investment strategy.

If gold shows itself to be behaving like a sefety asset, then change your strategy again.

As much as goldbugs may hate it, they can't change the current attitude that gold is mainly a commodity.

Live Long and Prosper.

Modicon is not the largest supplier of PLCs worldwide... SIEMENS and MITSUBITSHI well outpace them....MODICON is so f'd up I can't even begin to describe it, and we don't use them. It will not be the PLC's that bring down the systems it will be the computer interfaces to them. Some of theses have been found to be stoppable at Y2.

Here are my credentials:

http://198.49.220.47/texis/si/sc/innovate/+QcleqX7DwBmeZ5o0Xwwww/full.html

treat it as a buying opportunity.
A caller to CNBC this morn typified how clueless & out of touch with reality that the majority of investors in this bubble really are. He called in for advice around 10 E. & sounded really panicked. Apparently he made a deposit on a house that will close in 3 months, so I guess he figured , in the meantime, why not put the money in the mkt & make 20-30%. He invested ( gambled ) the money yesterday, woke up this morning & the first thing he heard about was the Brazil devaluation & Dow down 200 points. Said he almost had a heart attack. The look of incredulity on Bill Griffith's face was priceless. Luckily for him, this mkt is harder to kill than Dracula & the NAZ was positive by 2:30.

Greed got the better of me this morn & once again cost me a substantial amount. I had shorted the new spdr tech fund yesterday just before the close & when I got up to check on the mkts I was up a considerable amount ( for me ) . I figured that there would be counter rallies but thought that NAZ would close down big today. Silly me, I forgot about the new pair of dimes & by 2 was even. For a while actually down.

This mania is out of control & with AGs hands tied I have no idea how far that they will be able to push the mkts. They have no fear & the PPT on their side.

I don't know if or when DRUDGE will release his story or what it is about, but I have remarked on here that if he said the story is "earthshattering" and also non-political, it leads me to believe it may involve finding some other intelligent life in the universe. To esotericist-- I have heard of "Maitreya". I spoke with someone that was involved in a group that believed in him. Curiously, one of the things that Maitreya predicted had to do with Japan sinking into a major depression that would pull the world down with it. Now before my fellow Kitcoites label me the next Ziva ( whom I still miss by the way ) my point is that "Western Civilization" has basically ended up pointing a loaded gun at this beautiful planet and unless we get some "outside" help in the form of either some Spiritual Beings, some other more highly evolved life form, or healing energies engulfing the planet, that gun will go off. This planet MUST be one of the Jewels of the Universe. It's just too beatiful to let it be completely destroyed.

Worthless paper is no 'new paradigm'. Just a different set of crooks and a different set of fools.

largest supplier of safety shutdown PLC's.
Many large conservative companies Shell, BP, BNFL, Arco, seemed to prefer Modicon back then because they were the oldest ( not necessarily the best ) but most proven. At this point the engineers doing the buying still had relay wiring diagrams whirling around in their heads as the best safety shutdown system....ironically the old relay shutdown systems are Y2K compliant!

That may well be the case. But if you think that is the case, then build your investment decisions accordingly.

Don't rely on FAITH. Make your decisions on REALITY.

Live Long and Prosper.

Your "I rest my case" repost of the writer's theory is open to interperetation. While what Andy Smith say about silver is factual, extrapolating that to gold is a reach. Did you miss out on the currency action of the past year? The paper is having a bit of diffuculty, and it seems to be worsening daily. I thought that the paper guys in the IMF said that Brazil was OK. That "money" is down the toilet, and it was all fixed up just three months ago.
The sappy taxpayers of the countries ( including Australia ) that ponied up tens of billions of dollars will just have to work harder to give value to the gommint paper of a profligate kakistocracy, that isn't even on their own continent. How many times has Brazil gone down in this century? When will the paper ever work? Tell me.
Andy Smith and the writer do not mention aything good about a gold standard. There are a few things that you, and he should consider:
It is portable, and recognisable any where in the world.
Currency exchange is idiot-simple. A sheet of paper can list all currencies.
Governments can't steal it by printing more.
It stands on its own. It isn't a debt of some entity.
Currency valuation is automatic. ( What could you do in 'stralia when the A$ was tanking? Buy USD? Then buy Yen, and, Swiss, and US,the A$? )
Gold protects the working class from machinations that they are powerless to control. The labor movement was solidly behind the hard money standard.
Gold defeats social control of the citzenry. That's why we have paper.
.
I'm certain that this forum can add many more reasons than these.

I'm with you Gollum. My gut says gold is about to rise also.

http://www.aut.sea.siemens.com/yr2k/index.htm

and rockwell chooses to baffle with BS. but actually has a detailed listing.

http://www5.software.rockwell.com/support/knowbase.nsf/9dc47c2a86607f2d86256365001169f5?SearchView

And ABB has a long list MOD300 systems can be made compliant with patches it is notable to report htat ABB specializes in power plant control as does Siemens. EAch of them have dedicated divisions to this purpose.

http://www2.abb.ch/GLOBAL/CHIBM/CHIBM007.NSF/ ( Library ) /Year+2000+Compliance

You've missed my point about that article. It doesn't matter what yoyu and I think. What matters is what the majority of finacial players think. And they would probably think like Andy Smith.

It doesn't matter if you agree with them or not, you just have to build your investment decisions accordingly.

Live Long and Prosper.

before I go out to dinner, which I will purchase with a federal reserve note, which the establishment will take on the FAITH that it can be redeemed for something of value, even though in REALITY it is inherently worthless. I don't know if the Confederacy coined any gold. If they did I am sure I could still buy something with it. Don't take any wooden nickels.

LL&P

OF COURSE the jackals bray their bray. That is what they do! Nearly everytime someone posts one of these Andy Smith type articles I take the time to read it, hoping on hope that it will have something new and interesting in it. You know what? They NEVER do. They are ALWAYS such obvious attempts to talk down Gold and mostly they do it by distorting facts and History, sometimes sublimely, sometimes so obviously that it is sickening to witness. The article you posted was intentionally crafted for one purpose. And was that purpose not obvious to those with eyes that can see? Yes. But that is not the intended audience. No, it was made to be read and pull the wool over the eyes of those creatures that already have wool over 99% of the rest of their body. ( If you need a clue they make a sound that goes something like this - Baa-ah-ahhahhhhhhh! )
I could take the time to point out about 20-30 various errors of fact, distortions and leading sentences that are intended to subtly brainwash, but those with eyes that can see can do this for themselves.
I really can't take this part though:
"It's a long time since Isaac Newton, master of the mint of
England in 1717, fixed the price of the gold guinea, so
called because of the African elephant on it, to 20 silver
shillings." ( Actually he fixed it to 21 shillings ) "He did this to check the rise in the price of gold
as commerce and trade with the East expanded." ( This may or may not be true, However the gold quinea was in use from 1663 onwards. So in reality this date of 1717 is merely the date that a ratio of 21/1 Silver to Gold became a standard for some time NOT the beginning of Gold's dominance in World trade. )

This was the beginning, albeit an unofficial one, of the
gold standard. ( Nope - only of the Gold/Silver bimetalism ratio. )

For the next 254 years ( here is the false premise based on 1971-1717 ) gold dominated world financial
markets." ( Gold dominated nearly ALL civilized countries as the money of choice for hundreds and thousands of years before the year 1717 - I guess this man has only read history books beginning in the year 1717. Seems to me that there just MIGHT have been a mention of its ( and Silvers ) use in biblical times and before. )
"But after Britain dropped the gold standard in 1931..." ( Did they really? Why was it so important - and remains so until this day - to have two daily fixings to determine the fiat price that gold will be bought and offered for each business day? ) "...and the US in 1971, gold has steadily lost its financial status..." ( Actually it was just after the US depegged its dollar from Gold that we had the most spectacular rise in the Price Of Gold - dare I say it - In The History Of The World! )
So, let's think about it. Has Gold REALLY lost its financial status? Then why is this guy and others like him constantly reminding us of this fact? If its really in the history books now, why do they waste so much time harping and not get on with something else?
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.
This one's for Andy Smith and all his clones:
"I must tell you that the supply of words on the world market is plentiful, but the demand is falling." ---Lech Walesa
This one's for ALL:
"If you can keep your head when all about you
are losing theirs . . . " ---Rudyard Kipling

Senate Threatens to Silence Greenspan" link:

http://nypostonline.com/business/2626.htm

Dow 20,000?

I agree, that article represents the typical thinking out there.
I, on the other hand, with the events I see unfolding around me, think
more and more that this is a conspiracy orchestrated to soak up cheap Gold ( and other assets ) around the world.
They did Asia, Russia, now they are salivating on the Latam countries.
However much Gold is being sold, someone is gladly buying it up, and the cheaper the better.
The manipulation machine is running in top gear.........

http://www.canoe.ca/FPNP/jan13_goldoutlook.html

Thanx to MoReGoLd and everyone else who replied today. Live Long and Prosper.

but it bears a look. The guy is funny, and thoughtful too.
There is a nice little essay in the middle of this that points out several paralells of the past.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Market/6749/

"The IMF is a Criminal Organization"

January 13, 1999
ANALYSIS-Knives out for IMF after Brazil devalues
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Brazil's crumbling currency pointed to spectacular problems for another International Monetary Fund lending deal Wednesday, infuriating critics who say the fund has made a global crisis worse.
 Economists said the IMF should have looked more closely at the value of Brazil's currency, the real, before putting together a $41 billion international rescue deal for the country in November.
 The package, viewed as a precautionary arrangement which would prevent incipient problems turning into crises, had given investors time to flee Brazil but had not solved the country's underlying economic woes, they said.
 "They are now sitting with not just egg on their face, but with a terrible financial crisis, the fifth consecutive failure of a major IMF bailout plan, starting with Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Russia and now Brazil," said Harvard economist Jeffrey Sachs, long a loud critic of the IMF.
 "The IMF, U.S. government and Brazil agreed on a strategy last fall that Brazil try to defend a very heavily overvalued exchange rate by using very, very high interest rates and try to combine that with budget cuts," he told Reuters Television.
 "The combination was sending Brazil right over the cliff in terms of a deep contraction."
 Economists say they will revise already-low forecasts for Brazilian economic growth down further to take account of the weaker currency -- the real fell by more than eight percent after the government widened the band in which the currency could trade.
 "I don't think they can push the currency back up, because it certainly was overvalued," said Cynthia Latta, principal U.S. economist at Standard and Poor's DRI, arguing that IMF loans gave investors time to take money out of a country.
 "They are spiraling into a crisis because the government is not going to take the drastic steps that are needed anywhere near soon enough to appease the international community."
 Ian Vasquez, of the libertarian Cato Institute, said the devaluation of the real showed the new international idea of devising rescue packages before a crisis erupted, rather than afterward, could not work.
 "New IMF money has in fact served as a sort of financial morphine to the Brazilian political system, allowing it to continue in its years of postponing the introduction of economic reforms," he said in a statement.
 The IMF rescue deal included tough Brazilian promises to rein in the country's budget deficit, and ministers insist they can still meet fiscal targets.
 But economists like Sachs have long been critical of IMF prescriptions of high interest rates and balanced budgets, describing them as the wrong medicine for countries fighting to stave off recession.
 The IMF says it has modified its recipes to take account of changing circumstances and maintains its programs are working in South Korea and in Thailand, where the collapse of the baht currency triggered problems around the world.
 It releases an internal document next Tuesday assessing its actions in Asia.
 The fund has had harsh words for Russia, where a $22 billion rescue deal failed in a matter of weeks after Russia devalued the rouble and defaulted on some domestic debts.
 The IMF says lending can only resume if Russia adopts more appropriate economic policies and a more realistic 1999 budget than the one currently trundling its way through parliament. Some Russian officials have hinted they might default on a broad range of debts if the IMF does not provide more cash.
 Russian economy chief Yuri Maslyukov is due to meet senior IMF officials in Washington Thursday and he and IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer are scheduled to address a seminar on Russian investment Friday.
 Brazil's problems center on the inability of the government to force the country's Congress to approve tough spending cuts. The situation went from bad to worse last week after the governor of a major state froze debt payments to the federal government.
 "The debt moratorium itself involved only a small amount of money, but it sent a clear signal that there would be significant opposition from state governors to the reform proposals," said Jeffrey Schott, from the Institute of International Economics think tank. "I would think that today's events would scare the living daylights out of Congress."
 But Schott said the situation in Brazil was very different from that in Russia. "I do not think there is the same view that money was being poured down a rat hole in Brazil as there was in Russia."

Kiwi, I never thought I'd be one saying "people, slow down on this Y2K problem campaign!" because I was always fighting "Y2K no-problem" camp. However, I see it turning into feeding frenzy and I don't think it is healthy.

You see, as anything else related to computers, nobody can "guarantee" that all systems will operate on a fault proof mode. It never happened, this industry is too immature to be "bug free". Nobody is willing to say "our systems will operate without any snags". Even more mature industries are not fault proof. Cars fail, energy supply fails without Y2k problem, etc., yet, we are asking people responsible for Y2K "compliance" to say "we guarantee that everything will work". So you see statements "things MAY fail". This is used by "Y2K gloom camp" turned into "everything will fail". This is what I have problem with, because "may" does not equate to "will". Second mistake is that despite the fact that we are making the progress and eliminating some of the "will fail for sure" to "may fail" and even to "will not fail", most of the "gloom" prediction and scenarios are based on the original premise tha "everything will go wrong".

You see, I am a halfway optimistic, and I can say that many things will not fail based on my working experience on Y2K problem. Sure, go ahead, make a sensible preparation for Y2K failures, however, don't plan for the "end of civilization" - this will not be happening!

As far as Nuke power plants and NRC, NRC rules are very strict ( and rightfully so ) . If you read them, you will find out that NRC should shut down plants if there is any uncertainty about safety operation of these plants. So, the shut down may occur, however, only after a lot of modeling of what may go wrong, and I have that "stinking" feeling that it may not happen after all. And, if that happens, it will be accompanied by a significant contingency plans and restriction of "unessential" use of energy so that it will not bring power grids into screeching halt.

JMHO - Miro

Does anyone have a URL for gold updating in europe?

Snowbird the channel lines you refer to are;
Dow Jan resistance 9825 Feb 9940
Jan support 7710 Feb 7780

The S&P march should move back up and at least test the 1290 highs perhaps by friday. If it breaks though the next resistance will be the 1340 area. If it fails we may be going into a protracted trading range between 9700 -7700 in the Dow.

Mooney, silver march has support at 4.95, on the up side the first barrier has been cleared and tested at 5.05-5.10, next resistance is approx. 5.80. I'm playing this from the long side but I'm not convinced the low is in yet.

Snowbird the channel lines you refer to are;
Dow Jan resistance 9825 Feb 9940
Jan support 7710 Feb 7780

The S&P march should move back up and at least test the 1290 highs perhaps by friday. If it breaks though the next resistance will be the 1340 area. If it fails we may be going into a protracted trading range between 9700 -7700 in the Dow.

Mooney, silver march has support at 4.95, on the up side the first barrier has been cleared and tested at 5.05-5.10, next resistance is approx. 5.80. I'm playing this from the long side but I'm not convinced the low is in yet.

been thinkin' it makes a lot of sense, especially now.

Following past url's on this board, it seems that 25 year old waiters
and 70 year old retired grandma's can now get a cheap PC, subscribe
w/E-Trade, and make small fortunes buying the dips. Works great in
this subsidized, manipulated stock market. Until the day...

...when the feeding frenzy ends. And only PM's and BEARX start to
climb. These day-traders, so scourned here now, may soon be our best
friends. -Regards

You set a record tonight for posts....all seemingly desperate pleas directed toward Kitcoites, the thesis being that gold investment is an exercise in futility.

I don't quite understand you. If you are truly a Gold Long, then why do you so eagerly press the gold short thesis? What basis of Vulcan logic compels you to shoot yourself in the foot?

Listen, we have some people over tonight for a hot, intense game of SCRABBLE...when we finish, I will try and logon in order to address the litany of comments you posted my way.

Thanks.

F*

Greenspan, Rubin and Camdesuss were arrested today and charged with criminal conspiracy and fraud, after financial markets around the world collapsed in a chain reaction, brought on by commercial bank and hedge fund bankuptcies directly connected to
"secret joint commodity market interventions" by the US Federal Reserve, the IMF and the Worlld Bank.

Who commissioned their widely reported press blurb? Do they counsult for the miners, or for the shorts?
I'd like to know who paid for this before I give it too much credence.
Perhaps they are putting their predictions on leaflets to be inserted in cash envelopes in the banks, and at Evangelical churches, and local miltia meetings. Free of charge, of course.
I do think that gommints that mint gold coin ought to include this statement with every coin that they sell. Or they should impress it on the rim of all newly minted coins. Sort of like the cigarette warning.

I too play the oex and was early on the sale of my puts and the
purchase of my calls and did not fair as well. I also believe
that this week will still prove us a blowoff, the thing is not
done yet. Short term is the game for me, except for mining calls.
I watch your trades and miss a lot but what I read is in the money.
I'm sure we all appreciate your take on the markets. Thanks.

greatest carnivals in history...

Just why is it that you are long on Gold?

SCHAUMBURG, Ill. ( AP ) -- Fourth-quarter earnings at Motorola Inc. were sliced in half from the year-ago period as the company continued to suffer from weak computer chip sales and Asian economic woes. Motorola beat Wall Street expecations, however. For the three months ended Dec. 31, Motorola earned $159 million, or 26 cents a share, compared to $321 million, or 53 cents a share, in the final quarter of 1997. Analysts surveyed by First Call Corp. had predicted earnings of 23 cents a share. Revenue for the fourth-quarter increased slightly to $8.34 billion, up from $8.28 billion in the year-ago period. The Schaumburg-based communications equipment manufacturer said cost-cutting measures, including a work force reduction of 17,000 employees, are starting to pay off and that strong digital telephone sales also are helping.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0l.htm
--
Here's your stock market. Motorola earnings cut in half from this time last year, yet the stock is trading 15$US/share higher than it was last year, about a dollar below it's 52-week high. Maybe shareholders should hold their breath and hope earnings get cut in half a few more times. Look at this graph and remember forever what you see.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=MOT&d=my

the gold bull market will only start after the long gold bulls start to tire and fall off their paths.......we must be getting close ..... negative press is coming from every direction......it must be time for the IMF to announce gold sales .... they lost 5 battles why not one more after brazil falls. Keep up the good work IMF we love ya.....go AU

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm
hope that helps
l_b

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm
hope that helps
l_b

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990113/bu2.html

Thanks for update - Like someone else just said tonight, we can't be on here all the time and sometimes we miss some important posts. Personally, although I predicted increased volatility right from the get go in '99, I was hoping that the Silver would make those lows some were hoping for in the $4.40-4.50 area later this Spring as I wanted to sell a property and institute the 10K Plan, ( or multiples thereof ;- ) ) , that we spoke of. However "Time waits for no man" is as true a saying now as it ever was.
Night All. Glenn. Where the heck are ya?

Freinds here in SoCalif buying property in New Mexico. Establishing
Y2K communes. Au manditory for admission.

This is only January.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- President Clinton tried to restore confidence in badly shaken financial markets on Wednesday after an abrupt devaluation of Brazil's currency called into question his strategy for dealing with the 18-month-old global economic crisis. Clinton said he and members of his economic team were monitoring the crisis in Brazil closely and had been in contact with Brazilian authorities, the International Monetary Fund and U.S. allies. "We have a strong interest in seeing Brazil, with whom we have worked on so many important things around the world, carry forward with its economic reform plan and succeed, and we certainly hope that they will," Clinton told reporters at the White House. Latin America accounts for 20 percent of U.S. export sales and increased trouble there could add to the burden of American factories and farmers who already have seen their Asian markets shrink. Last fall, with the financial crisis threatening to claim Brazil as its next victim, the administration convinced the IMF to try a new approach -- offering bailout money up front as a way of keeping nervous investors from fleeing developing nations rather than offering assistance only after a country's economy has been leveled.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0a.htm
--
Thank you Mr. Clinton, I feel reassured.

If Japan ( only owns 3% of reserves in gold ) would start buying gold on the market...or even from other CB's. How would it affect currency valuations in relitive trems to the Dollar? and would'nt it encourage third world contries to mine for more gold in exchange for Dollars? thust stimulating there own economies. gold back and even silver backed currencies would stabilize valuation swings. any comment on a gold peg?

"My word is as good as Gold," "Silence is Gold,""He is worth his weight in Gold" still seems to be a common verbage. But what does this really mean for investing in Gold?
Lately ( decades! ) , that meant lower prices and no true and easy understandable strategy for the accumulation of an obviously declining asset. No relationship seems to hold other than if anything happens, Gold will decline some more. The market goes up a lot, Gold goes up a little and then down some more. On the other hand, when the markets tank, gold tanks. Conspiracy? Why? The only real demand remaining seems to be Jewelry, some collecting, and some hyped up doomsters.
The selloff by Central banks only appears to be a logical consequence of the fact that Gold is no longer needed to get a transaction going. As long the paper trading represents some stuff we can exchange, there is no need for an universally accepted medium of exchange. And, the world is producing definetely enough stuff. As a matter of fact, this is what makes Gold cheap. More stuff for less money. More choices. Hang it around your neck, great!! Have some coins to look at. Great, too! But investment? For one thing, you can dollar cost average yourself straight to hell. Buy the dips? They are getting deeper and deeper. How could anybody advise on a prudent, growth oriented strategy for the accumulation of Gold that would make sense to the average investor? The question of what to get out of Gold investing after about 20 years is a hard one to answer. In the current climate, it could even be noticed that nobody speculates on any potential future increases in the price of the metal anymore.
At the end of the spectrum, there always remains the trader, possibly representing the only way to juggle Gold. Yet, if Joe Public doesn't buy, it will go down with history, numismatists, and some hard core nostalgic believers like I am myself.
Are there any real and tested strategies out there that could Gold make compete with other investments such as stocks and bonds? Can anybody tell me how I could base my retirement on Gold? If not, why should anyone invest in it? Only out of fear of the uncertain future in light of thousands of years past? Retirement based on the assumption that hell will break loose and you have food and shelter as an old man just because you had the foresight to put your money in Gold? Not really enticing for a positive and innovative mind in a modern world.

Any real thoughts other than emotions?

Sad to say, after days in the red, expiration rapidly approaching, and the 60 min fast stochastic approaching 10 late yesterday, I decided to get out without a loss, planning to buy Feb puts on the morning rally. When I saw Globex SPH9 down 27 this a.m., I nearly died !! Still, with ticks minus over 1300 early today and the p.m. OEX recovery, I'm expecting a big stock market rally tomorrow and the chance to establish Feb OEX puts relatively cheap. "He who turns and runs away, lives to fight another day."

http://www.foxmarketwire.com/011399/greenspan.sml

TORONTO ( AP ) -- Northern Telecom, Canada's largest high-tech company, said Wednesday it will close plants and eliminate up to 8,000 jobs in the next three years as it restructures to focus on Internet-related projects. The company, which has 80,000 employees worldwide, said it is shifting its focus from standard telephone equipment to cutting-edge voice and data networks using Internet technology.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1y.htm
--
Looks like 8000 Nortel folks will be joining up with the 17000 Motorola folks, a bunch of farmers, steel workers, etc. As overseas markets tank, demand drops, companies cut back, more of the same. When former Motorcola employee Joe Pak was asked what he thought of the situation he was quoted as saying "Would you like fries with that ?"

I'm here and I'm long gold right now. I'm Hoping we trade above $286.0 the rest of the week. My stop is at $283.50. I haven't had much luck from the long side lately so having me long here could be a bad omen!

"Since 1995, Argentina has introduced sweeping changes to its banking system -- its weakest economic point
at the time -- including a multi-billion dollar stand-by repurchase facility to help the system in case of trouble."

http://www.nando.net/business/story/body/0,1031,7408-12790-89911-0,00.html

LOS ANGELES ( AP ) -- Thousands of Asians have been lured to the U.S. territory of Saipan, where they are beaten and forced to live under guard in cramped, rat-infested quarters while making popular clothing tagged "Made in the USA," according to sweeping lawsuits that seek more than $1 billion. More than 50,000 people, mostly young women, have been recruited from China, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand with promises of good wages, only to wind up in sweatshops that "would make medieval conditions look good," plaintiffs' attorney William Lerach said Wednesday in Los Angeles. Saipan, a 13-mile-long tropical isle in the Northern Marianas, "is America's worst sweatshop," plaintiffs' attorney Al Meyerhoff said in New York City. Three lawsuits seek more than $1 billion in damages, disgorgement of profits and unpaid wages for conditions they claim have persisted for the past decade.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0m.htm

If Temple is right, your Feb Puts may work out well...

http://www.sellnow.net/freesite/1999/Adaily1.shtml

No news is bad news this time.
How do you keep such hours? G'nite
Hasta manana.
THUD

Thanx but I was looking for real time quotes from Swizerland.My system crashed....lost everything.

All: Please add to my list.

Bullish factors

1 ) Trade wars -- block deflationary effects of cheap goods, create shortages of goods currently being imported. Given that the US has shifted to a service industry with little manufacturing activity within US borders, the inflationary effects may be much more than we would expect. Internet-based information business will side step the trade wars and continue at low cost.

2 ) Competitive devaluations -- If Brazil continues devaluing, China and Europe will follow suit. The US will be forced to devalue the dollar eventually or our economy will be devoured by our trade deficits.

3 ) Increased imported energy costs -- The US and many other countries import a large fraction of their energy. As far as I can tell, trade wars will probably not increase energy costs given the number of producers. Perhaps some energy producers will throw in the towel, or get embroiled in war of some kind. Even Saudi Arabia is having hard times. Just imaginw what would happen if Saudi Arabia starts to shift in the direction of Iran, rather than the 'west'.

4 ) Creation of new preferably gold-backed currencies to compete with the US dollar. Then other countries will fell less need to prop up the US dollar. The EURO in its current form is not a threat.

Bearish Factors

1 ) Financial crises -- first SEAsia, now South America. Ie, currency devaulations in non-US countreis. Then Europe? These events appear more episodic than the above. Tsunami' to nimbly avoid, if possible.

2 ) CB Gold 'sales' -- The central banks, the IMF, or the gold producers will continue to 'sell' gold during financial crises as long as the gold market is much thinner than the US dollar market. The CB's will continue to dominate the gold market, as long as they hold considerable uncommitted gold assets, and the gold market is thin compared to the US dollar market. My guess is that they will lose control of the price of gold when the dollar value of the daily gold market approaches the dollar value of the US dollar market, and the CB's et all can no longer afford the manipulation.

I know how you felt. I follow Favors cycle work and Bradley indicator, his trading is to conservative for me,but his timing dates have been pretty good in 98. He had a market high 1/8, a low 1/13 and a rally into 1/20. That projected 1/13 low was a big reason I held on. Check him out.

Try this: http://www.quoteline.com/astmete.asp

What's up with the PPI today!

Try http://www.quoteline.com/astmete.asp

Yahoo! News
Top Stories headlines
Thursday January 14, 12:28 AM
http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19990114/news/916273680-7-1.html
( edited )
"More than 34 billion has been wiped off leading
shares in a global financial bloodbath"

fears of an economic meltdown

FTSE-100 Index down 183.5

Dealers ditched stocks-Brazil, teetering on the brink of
financial collapse

In a turn of events that highlights the global
nature of modern financial markets, investors
panicked after the head of Brazil's central bank
resigned

Dealers feared his successor's less hawkish
approach could steer the country towards
economic collapse.

This, in turn, would hit the rest of Latin America
and spread north through Mexico to the US, which
has invested heavily in the region.

~~~~~~~

"When Life Looks Like Easy Street, There Is Danger At Your Door..."
:Garcia & Hunter

The financial situation in the United States during the 1920's was characterized by an "inflation" of speculative values only.

It was a trader made situation. Prices of commodities remained low, despite the overpricing of securities on the exchange.

The purchasers did not expect their securities to pay dividends. The idea was to hold them awhile and sell them at a profit.

It had to stop somewhere, as Paul Warburg ( Member of the original federal reserve board of governors 1914-1918; president federal advisory council 1918-1928. ) remarked in March 1929.

Wall Street did not let it stop until the people had put their savings into these over-priced securities.

Then the spectacle of the President of the United States, Calvin Coolidge, acting as a shill for the stock market operators when he recommended to the American people that they continue buying on the market in 1927.

There had been uneasiness about the inflated condition of the market, and the bankers showed their power by getting the President of the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to issue statements that brokers' loans were not too high, and that the condition of the stock market was sound.

In March 1928, Roy A. Young Governor of the Board, was called before a Senate committee. "Do you think the brokers' loans are too high ?"; he was asked.

" 'I am not prepared to say whether brokers' loans are too high or too low," he replyed. " but I am sure they are safely and conservatively made."

Secretary of the Treasury Mellon in a formal statement assured the country that they were not too high, and Coolidge, using material supplied him by the Federal Reserve Board, made a plain statement to the country that they were not too high.

Yet the Federal Reserve Board issued on February 2 1929, a letter addressed to the Reserve Bank Directors cautioning them against the grave danger of further speculation.

1931- 1932, the Governors of the Federal Reserve Board saw the plight of the American people steadily worsening and did nothing to help them. At any time during those years the Federal Reserve Board could have acted to relieve this situation.

So much of the money normally used to pay rent and food bills had been sucked into Wall Street that there was no money to carry on the business of living.

The Federal Reserve System had the power to issue millions of dollars of money. Why did it not do so in 1931 and 1932 ?

The American people had to starve and suffer until March of 1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt and his crew of Wall Street bribers put some money into circulation. That was all there was to it.

The Federal Reserve began to buy Government securities at the rate of ten million dollars a week for ten weeks, and created a hundred million dollars in new money, which alleviated the critical famine of money and credit, and the factories started hiring people again.

Thankyou dear sir.This is exactly what I was looking for.God Bless.

Front page of todays Wall Street Joural had an article about Clinton threatening Japan about dumping steel.



Tom

supplysider@altavista.net

Oops! I left out two bullish factors for gold. So far there is little evidence that either of these two events will cause gold to move upward. With regard to WJC, it must be because he is still popular with the general public, who do not know what the House, and now the Senate know. It will be educational to see whether the Republicans will succeed in educating the public about WJC. If they fail, the Republicans may wind up toast in the next national elections. If they succeed, gold will rally until WJC steps down. My guess is that any EURO crises will not have much effect on gold during the first six months of the EURO -- the honeymoon phase.