Greetings Miro--Interesting y2k comments. Wonder if you had any thoughts about the international y2k situation. All the reports that I read are quite pessimistic. The US may not be in a position to offer any help to the rest of the world. ( anyone-- feel free to comment )

http://customer1.barchart.com/custom/midam/4658.htm

http://customer1.barchart.com/custom/midam/0041.htm Nena had a band, they played pretty music. I never understood the words except for alles dreht sich. And now I see things changing, but I do not know to where. Someone grok these charts for me, before I pull out all my hair.

I will post Stephen A. Ross' market principles once I have a free minute and retrieve my notes from work.

Did you know the Hunt brothers lost $3 billion in their silver investment fiasco? This shouldn't have bankrupted them, because they had assets at the time of $10 billion, but they were cornered by their creditors and forced to liquidate their real assets at fire sale prices, and eventually applied for protection from their creditors. This illustrates one of Steve's principles of forensic finance: "liquid debts always destroy illiquid assets."

hugs to all . . .
Steve

Greenspan, Rubin and Camdesuss have less chance of being arrested for criminal conspiracy than Joe Sixpack being hit by a meteorite while riding in the Lincoln Tunnel. However...........................,.............

All steady now.

Time for silver to continue UP.
And for gold to regain a little ground

GOLLUM. Where are you when we need ya ?

I think this was a WWII thing.

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Gold is probably the last choice that performance-minded investors would consider these days. It keeps going nowhere, as they say, while some Internet stocks zoom 50 times in a couple of years. In fact, the idea of buying gold is scorned by new-age investors as a cultural lag from a more primitive time, a relic in a world that has outgrown its fear of the unknown. But quietly, and with little of the commotion and promotion that accompanies high-tech stocks, investors with more prudent aspirations have been loading up on gold bullion coins, and making money doing it. According to the 1998 Collectors Universe, which monitors prices, a $1,000 investment in a basket of generic or common gold coins in 1970 would now have an average market value of close to $22,500. While that doesn't approach the two-year gains of Internet stocks such as Amazon.com -- which soared from $2.62 1/2 a share in 1997 to $185 recently -- it represents a 15 percent annual return versus a 60-year average 11 percent for stocks in general. More recent buyers of selected gold items have been doing even better, as quiet, insistent demand pushes up prices. Most of that demand is from small, savvy investors who doubt the staying power of the high-flyers.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0s.htm
--
Goldbugs made the AP wire.

99 Luftballoons

Auric
Amigo, perhaps America has 'helped' enough already. And, perhaps, the ROW would be happier without America's 'help'.
Just a suggestion from downunder.

that the Fed was to blame for the terrible devastation of the Great Depression. At the time people needed a scapegoat to blame for the event, and so they excoriated the Federal Reserve Bank and threw Hoover out of Office.

It has been claimed so often that the Fed failed to act quickly enough to 'halt' the contraction of the money supply, that people believe it without even imagining alternative explanations.

Contrary to the popular claims one hears that the Fed reacted too tentatively and too late, in reality the Fed reacted to the economic contraction furiously.

The only tool the Fed has to control the money supply is interest rates. The Fed lowered rates until they reached -0.25%. That's right: US interest rates reached an all-time record low of *negative* 1/4. This might sound like they were paying people to borrow their money, rather than gaining an income from it, and in one sense they were- they were that desperate to get money into circulation and boost the money supply. When the economy was contracting, though, and deflation was occurring, borrowing money at -0.25% meant that you were still losing. Borrowing money at -0.25% when inflation is -6% means that you are paying a real interest rate of 5.75%!

Even at -0.25% people wouldn't borrow money. There was literally nothing the Fed could do after that. It was a classic case of a deflationary spiral where the central bank was powerless to do anything about it.

The most recent example of a central bank being unable to cope with a deflationary contraction has been Japan. The Bank of Japan manipulated interest rates down to -0.25% ( plus a change, plus a ne change pas . . . ) and deflation continues unabated in Japan.

- Steve

Could it be that they are pumping up some stocks to keep investor inclination toward seemingly easy money, or is it a set up, to skin them live?

I haven't purchased coins in a few months and hadn't been keeping up with the prices, but after reading the AP wire I just posted, I checked. You know, the prices on coins are actually going up, despite what gold is doing. My gold broker told me during the summer that he couldn't keep eagles in stock, that people were buying them hand over first, and sure enough, they're up there a little bit. The shop I just checked had spot at 292$US/oz, and they were offering to purchase eagles at 298$US, sell 1-10 at 311$US and 11+ at 309$US. That's a better premium than they had this summer, if memory serves, which sometimes it doesn't. Same shop has silver eagles in quantities of 500 for 7.01$US which seems reasonable. Imagine, for about 3500$US you could have 500 silver eagles tucked away in your treasure chest. Actually, it'd have to be a pretty good sized treasure chest and you might need some help moving it. Go ahead with your bad self, pirate boy. Har !

Dear Aldebaron,seems like you and people like you paid the price of freedom for the rest of us.Thankyou from the bottom of my heart.

Jack: You mean the AP wire ? Sounded like a closet goldbug who wants to believe in the metal, but is afraid to say anything good about it without covering his ass to me. I don't think there were any subversive agendas behind the curtain.

Steve: I'm looking forward to that post.

I'm as paranoid as anyone her about Y2K.
The worst scenario imaginable is that la Nina continues into the winter in the northern hemisphere, and most everyone dies from lack of power and canned pork and beans.
The antipodeans lying on their beach chairs decide, over a few beers, to invade what's left of the US'nKanada.
I cannot continue this as the idea of NudeSealanders overrunning us from wooden rafts is far too much to contemplate.

Here's a piece for all you gold conspiracy theorists out there...

Inflation Manipulation

By A.Canon Bryan

The market for gold historically has not operated as a function of its fundamentals. On the other hand, gold has acted as a store of value which provides a hedge against adverse socio-political conditions. We look in the world around us and we see a global deflationary spiral; we see the world's only super military and financial power mired in a leadership question as well as a brisk police action in the Middle East, to say nothing of a challenge to it's reserve currency status; we see the collapse of major financial systems around the world, including Japan, Brazil, and Russia; we see a growing uncertainty with respect to a technical glitch which threatens the very status quo of orderly society.

These are all good examples of the symptoms that would tend to give gold extrinsic value. However, if this is true, then why is gold performing so poorly?

World authorities in gold consistently report that demand continues to soar to record levels, and that central banks, on a policy basis, have no particular desire to either accumulate or dispose of gold, save Switzerland. And yet price has stagnated. This means that even on a fundamental level gold should be performing.

An extremely brilliant trader used to tell me over and over, "the market never lies". Reluctantly, I came to accept this sagacious saying as being law. Extrapolating the ramifications of this onto the depressed market for precious metals over recent months, one is forced to make the following inference: there are unseen forces which have been, and may continue to, contribute to a burgeoning supply of gold in the marketplace.

The Financial Times of London has reported steady sales from Goldman Sachs. They also report that Goldman Sachs is the broker of choice for United States Treasury Chief, Robert Rubin. They do not, however, ever make the inference that the US Treasury could be on the short side of the gold market. Then there's Barron's, who won't let it's readers forget that Rubin is absolutely the button man for the US. As well, they wonder how the IMF and hedge funds can continue to be financed. And yes, they too, wonder about the bear market in gold. It seems to me that all the piecesof the puzzle are there, but the major publications refuse to put them together. Why?

It's no secret that hedge funds, particularly in the US, have suffered astronomic losses last year, betting on weak Yen and strong Rubles. It's also widely known and reported that the Fed is far and away the largest holder of gold in the world. As a matter of necessity, it would seem prudent for the Fed ( or the Treasury ) to have a ( secret ) policy to dispose

of gold - slowly, in order to finance floundering enterprises within. But there may another motivation for the US to sell gold.

The Fed - and the G7 it would seem - have gone out of their way to annihilate rates to their lowest levels in a generation, while at the same time maintaining the lowest unemployment for the same period. As a rule, high employment comes with a cost of inflation. But with low rates, how could there be inflation? Well, there is no inflation - there's deflation. At any rate, what are the best indicators of low inflation? Low interest

rates and low commodities prices; particularly gold. Would it not suit the US Fed, in the interests of creating a perception of low inflation, to manipulate the price of gold lower?

Why else would the US want to manipulate a perception of low inflation? The Barker Letter has reported previously that the US Dollar is a currency in trouble. With unthinkable debt levels, growing fiscal deficits, and fast disappearing global demand, no currency is safe from outright collapse. I believe the Fed understands this and wishes to artificially manipulate the perception of strength in the Greenback. This could never

happen, however, with any hint of inflation. I believe this further quantifies my theory of "Inflation Manipulation".

Gold, in the meantime, continues to be subject to constant unexplained downward pressure. Under this scenario, the gold price in US$ would not improve until the US$ began a significant decline; the supposition here being that a gold price in a control currency would not change, but quoted in a declining currency would improve.

These are things that the gold investor may wish to ponder.

Be careful out there

You have free access to our archives and information at The Daily Barkerletter website - http://www.barkerletter.com.

From Micheal Burke on S.I.:

Robert, You have to learn to think like a tech permabull:
Step 1. Get a frontal lobotomy.
Step 2. When something bad happens domestically, say that we are now a global economy.
Step 3. When something bad happens internationally, say that foreign sales don't matter.
Step 4. When eps decline, say that is history and focus on the future.
Step 5. When the future continues to crap out, ignore fundamentals and simply buy because they are going up.
Step 6. Always make certain that Mr. Greenjeans in Washington will print more money for idiots to gamble with.

MB

I thought about it but decided that I'd rather have
a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

tomo, I never paid much of any kind of price for freedom. Lots did of course, but as I get older I wonder if maybe they got ripped off. I'm 30, but I have relatives who are older and paid somewhat of a price. And of course they knew people who paid a very high price. ehhh... I don't want to talk about this.
Crystal Ball don't know if you like the music, but if you do I have a URL: http://www.nena.de/hp_g/html/real.shtml

Got Real
player that is...

An intact North America, Britain, and Antipodia, despite past sins, could be a life saver to the rest of the world.

The end.

Q...Why did UBS and Merill Lynch close down or cut back on their bullion operations?
A...The benefits packages to insure the lives of their golden bears made the bullion operations unprofitable. In other words it was cheaper to let them go.

Your information is invaluable and much appreciated.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990114/be.html

Chinese Finance

Investors Alarmed as Another Firm Bites the
Dust

More trouble in Guangdong

HONG KONG - Stocks of major Chinese-controlled companies trading here plunged Wednesday
amid fears that their lines of credit were drying up as a second state-controlled company stunned
investors by announcing that it was effectively insolvent, with debts far larger than expected.

Almost all Hong Kong-listed stocks of companies incorporated or doing business in China were
pummeled amid growing fears of a debt crisis on the Chinese mainland. The Hang Seng China
Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, fell 11.5 percent. The index
tracking ''red-chip'' stocks, those incorporated in Hong Kong but controlled in mainland China, fell
12.5 percent.

The perceived increase in the risk of lending to China, and the effect it could have on banks in Hong
Kong, extended to Hong Kong stocks as well. The benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 4.1 percent, to
10,273.77 points.

Investors sold stocks after a subsidiary of Guangdong Enterprises ( Holdings ) Ltd. announced that its
parent company had debts of $2.94 billion and could not make principal payments to creditors due by
April. More surprisingly, the subsidiary company, Guangnan ( Holdings ) Ltd., which is one of the
principal shippers of fresh food from China into Hong Kong, said it had debts of $391 million, at least
50 percent more than most analysts had expected.

Combined with news that Guangdong Enterprises was in serious financial trouble, the announcement
about Guangnan sent stocks plunging. Guangnan shares fell 53 percent, while shares of its sister
company, Guangdong Investment, fell 24 percent.

Chinese shares have been badly hit since the announcement Sunday that another government-owned
company that collapsed in October, Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corp., known as
GITIC, had nearly double the debts previously figured - more than $4 billion - and that foreign
creditors would not get preferential treatment by liquidators.

Nervousness over bankruptcy proceedings has now taken a toll on lending to many other Chinese
companies such as Guangnan. ''If not for the GITIC issue, they'd probably be able to keep
borrowing to roll over their debts,'' said Ken Luh, a China analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in
Hong Kong.

But now, he said, ''They probably don't even have working capital.''

''Investors no longer trust the so-called guaranteed earnings of China assets and just want to be free
of them,'' Stanley Ng, head of research at Mansion House Securities, told AFX.

For the Chinese companies, the timing is awful. A report late last year by Goldman, Sachs & Co.,
ironically now serving as an adviser to Guangdong Enterprises, said the parents of many red-chip
companies had ''borrowed aggressively'' over the past two years and put most of the proceeds into
the stock and property markets. ''Given the devastation to property and equity prices since the start
of the Asia turmoil,'' it said, ''the red chips must have accumulated huge unrealized losses.'' The
report estimated that the collective debt of the red-chip companies might exceed $12 billion.

There is growing concern about how the retreat of lenders and investors will affect the broader
economy of mainland China, which is already slowing. Last week, the Finance Ministry painted a
gloomy picture of Chinese economic prospects this year and said it would increase government
spending to try to bolster growth.

One of the many questions investors need answered is which of the several publicly traded
companies in the Guangdong Enterprises group will actually survive. On Tuesday, the Guangdong
provincial government said it would pump money into Guangdong Enterprises to help the company
pay debts.

''The Chinese government has to think through the ramifications of letting Guangdong Enterprises
fail,'' a senior analyst with a U.S. investment bank said. ''Forcing GITIC to fail was probably more
damaging to confidence in Hong Kong than they had envisioned. Letting Guangdong Enterprises fail
would be even worse.''

Kalina Ip, an analyst at ABN-AMRO Asia, said she was confident that most of the companies in the
Guangdong Enterprises Group would survive, but she pointed to another chronic problem with
mainland Chinese companies: How could a dull, predictable food business such as Guangnan have
accumulated such heavy debts - as much as 60 percent more than what most analysts had been lead
to expect?

''Nobody has any idea how they got the debt so high,'' she said. ''It seems to tell you that you can't
trust the published accounts.''

The tone of the company's announcements in Hong Kong newspapers Wednesday signaled a very
different and much more blunt attitude about the financial hornets' nest many Chinese companies are
now negotiating.

In a striking announcement, Sun Guan, the chairman of the food-shipping subsidiary Guangnan,
described the causes of his parent company's financial difficulties as: bad investment decisions that
did not take into account business risks; imprudent lending decisions without proper credit
evaluation; inappropriate accounting for various transactions and tardiness in recognizing
write-downs, and poor decisions regarding oversight, investment leverage and accounting policies.

In the past, investment analysts who have leveled much milder criticism at politically connected
companies, or even just rated them as a ''sell,'' have been fired for doing so.

Ominously for bankers with loans outstanding to the group, the Guangnan chairman also said, ''The
financial magnitude of these problems are still in the process of being determined.''

The announcement of Guangdong's problems, the result of a creditors' meeting the day before, were
the last thing that international bankers wanted to hear. Still fuming from China's peremptory
treatment of them at a GITIC creditors' meeting Sunday and what they see as a betrayal by China's
authorities in their the failure to repay GITIC's debts, they are fighting back the only way they know
how - by pulling in lines of credit and declining to roll over loans for working capital.

International Herald Tribune, Jan. 14, 1999

Actually, I checked around and it looks like Monex has silver eagles for 6.70$US in quantities of 500, an even better deal than the 7.01$US I was looking at earlier. Anyone know what the shipping charges are in the US ? Without shipping or the cost of the chest, that's about 3350$US for a pretty respectable pirate treasure. Har ! Probably need to fill it out with some 90 percent silver bags, some gold, and some bulk silver jewelry. Are there places around that sell bulk silver jewelry by weight ? That might be fun.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

I will not do that again.
It's amazing to see the level of theft that goes on in state-run companies.
P.S. The banks will not get bailed out by the taxpayers on these Chinese loans. It is politically impossible.

There's no question about it, the Japanese, the Germans etal., can easily outsell the US, even though their wage rates are higher. This implies that the so called production efficiencies ( what production? ) we supposed to have gained are a hoax, as is the official inflation rate.
The biggest hoax is that they have the world believing that the dollar is strong. All those poor countries who economies we ruined or took over recently with IMF help have been hornswaggled to convert their currencies into US Treasuries, which the US citizen will pay the interest on.

The bitches in china could't get credit if their dongs were bigger than King Kong's.............

email me if interested
gales@execpc.com

Question: How much silver is in a $1000 face bag? I'm trying to figure out the premium vs bullion.

Observer: The place I was looking at says, "Approximately 715 ounces of silver. Bag contains either 4,000 quarters or 10,000 dimes. Face value $1,000. U.S. coins minted prior to 1965". Pretty good amount of coinage there, fair amount of silver too.

ERLE: Thanks guy, how about posting it so everyone benefits ? : )

crazytimes ( Good article on manipulation.... ) posted that
article on "Inflation Manipulation By A.Canon Bryan" where he
suggests that there is a hidden or partially hidden influx of
gold saturating the market at all times to artificially keep
the price low.

I've reached the very same conclusion in my own pondering of
the mysteries of the yellow metal. But if this is true, doesn't
it mean that gold is the screaming "BUY" of the century? Does this
not mean that huge stocks of gold are being sold... to you and I...
at artifically low prices? I can understand why they would be
willing to make that sacrifice, but it's important to note that
it's a sacrifice only to those who are wise enough to buy gold
with both hands immediately.

The only other explanation that I have thought of is that gold has
simply lost it's luster in the hearts of men, and seems a useless
relic of a bygone era where financial matters where much more simple.
Hogwash!!! It's gold, and you know it. It's the king of metals.
Buy it now.

~Silas~

We have taken the business away from the Japanese based on price and quality. I cannot see any way that Germany can become competitive in many of the areas that they used to dominate. That includes war.
Their labor costs are far higher than the US because of the tax schemes and regulation of the labor. The US is rapidly approaching the confiscatory tax rates on the labor, but there is still a wide spread.

I'd post it, except it might be construed as solicitation, and I respect the limits on that activity here.
I am only a customer, and have no other connection with them.
It also matters a good deal whether you deal with the owner rather than general salespeople.

.

Thank's, info much appreciated!

ERLE; why has the US balance of trade always been negative with Germany and Japan at all dollar rates. By all dollar rates, I mean during periods when our dollar was weak or like the present when it is relatively higher. Something doesn't add up, it never has' IMO

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Asia's top three stock markets had a mixed reaction today to the panic set off by Brazil, with the Hong Kong and Singapore indexes falling sharply but Tokyo's posting a gain. Even the struggling dollar continued to jump in value against the yen, thanks to Japan's foreign exchange intervention and positive comments about the U.S. currency earlier this week. On Wednesday, a fierce selloff hit Wall Street on news of a dramatic currency devaluation in Brazil, an important U.S. trading partner and one of the world's top 10 economies. But stocks bottomed out quickly and partly recovered. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones industrial index stood 125.12 points, or 1.3 percent, lower at 9,349.56. In earlier trading, the Dow had been down as much as 261 points. The selloff occurred after Brazil's central bank chief resigned, and his successor allowed the country's troubled currency, the real, to fall nearly 8 percent against major world currencies. Although Brazil's action was not a surprise, it stirred fears that Latin America's largest economy could drag the entire region -- and maybe even the United States -- into a recession.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0w.htm

Your 08:35 of Dec. 13,1999 said it like it is and with few words. Made my day.

I was going to make a suggestion, but first I read the posting guidlines. My suggestion was within the guidelines, then I checked to see what products Kitco sells. I knew of wire, solder, plate grains, and Mounties, but I was surprised to see that Kitco sells some other coins as well. I am positive they were not listed last time I looked at the sell prices page. http://www.kitco.com/gold.sellbar.html I have decided that if I again buy gold coins and want coins that are on Kitco's list and if shipping price is decent, I will get them from Kitco. Thats an easy pledge for me to make as I invariably want something a bit different like Peso's or something. Also I didn't notice any Silver Eagles or Silver Maple leafs. Perhaps they will appear on the list soon? Anyhow perhaps it might be possible to get some of the coins that Kitco sells elsewhere a little cheaper, but I would hope that all of us including me ( I'm really cheap ) can keep in mind that the other companies don't provide servers usually to host such discussions as we have here. I often see complaints about Kitco being slow. And for me it is often very slow. If I were a big time purchaser of gold casting grains or silver wire or something maybe I might complain. As it is, slow or fast, I am getting a really good deal on the information I glean from Kitco.

Anyway my suggestion was that there appears to be nothing in the posting guidlines that would prevent a customer of a coin dealer from relating their experiances, provided they do not have a financial interest in the company they are talking about. I would imagine it would be extrodinarly impolite to publicly discuss companies that sell the same coins or products as kitco. There is a company I think I have gotten a good deal with on Silver Eagles and a decent deal on Philharmonic and 50 Peso coins. But honestly if Kitco were selling those coins, I would be happier to pay a few dollars extra. After all, I take so much from here and I contribute nothing of value.

P.S. I am pretty sure that Kitco's price on Maple Leafs is the best there is. So if you want Maple Leafs you have no excuse not to buy them from Kitco.

http://cnnfn.com:80/hotstories/economy/wires/9901/13/gold_wg/

For Wednesday 13th Jan calculated from data published in today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.66---------------0.85-------------1.09-----------------1.48
( Change ) ------ ( 0.00 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.02 ) ----------- ( - 0.03 )
Silver Lease Rate---1.05--------------1.93--------------2.76-----------------3.19
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.15 ) -------- ( + 0.20 ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) ------------ ( + 0.05 )

Lease Rates are also available at http://mitsui-gold.com After this week I will not be posting Lease rates at this time each day as calculated from the FT but will give the usual weekly summary Saturdays at 10:10 Kitco time.
If I see anything dramatic happening in the FT data during weekdays I will post it at once. Those who cannot do without a daily lease rate "fix" should try Mitsui.
Regards..............Dabchick

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil ( AP ) -- The sudden resignation of Brazil's Central Bank president and the subsequent currency devaluation rocked world financial markets, but may have actually spurred the government to reform its economy. The devaluation made Congress snap to attention Wednesday and approve some key reform measures deemed necessary to shore up the economy. "What happened should bring the president and his government closer to Congress and make approval of fiscal reform easier," said Brasilia-based political consultant Walder de Goes. "The government is meeting the demands of several segments." But some analysts fear the government was too timid and should have devaluated the currency by twice as much. Others wondered whether Brazil could hold the devaluation within the limits it set or whether the currency would continue the slide it started after Central Bank chief Gustavo Franco quit Wednesday. Franco's resignation caused the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Latin America's largest, to open an hour late. It plunged 10 percent within minutes, but recovered to close down 5 percent for the day, on news of Congress' reform measures.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0z.htm

My Vulcan Buddy Spock said...


Don't put words in my mouth. I never said gold was worthless. Otherwise I wouldn't hold any. I just said that I'm not expecting a rally anytime soon because of the uncertainty over european CB holdings.

******************************************************************

Farfel Says...

So just relax, Spock. Inevitably, the uncertainty will fade away.

--------------------------------------------

Spock Says....


This may come as a shock to you farfel, but America is not the centre of the world. Asia is in deep do-dos, Brazil has devalued, Russia has defaulted, etc etc. That is a crisis.

And gold fell along with everything else.

******************************************************************

Farfel says...

Spock, I hate to tell you this...but AMERICA IS the center of the world, insofar as the floating exchange rate system works. All world currencies are evaluated AGAINST the US Buck. In effect, the US DOLLAR is the New Gold. And so long as the US BUCK is a de facto God in world financial markets, then Gold will be weak.

What does that mean?

It means that, for now, the various crises you refer to ( Russia, Brazil, etc. ) are NOT crises here at home. Most middle-class Americans are still purchasing SUV's in droves, still putting fat steaks on their barbeques, still renovating their appreciating houses, etc.

It means that until REAL, undeniable crises appear right here in AMerica's backyard ( just like in the old days of Jimmy Carter's America when gold last went through the roof ) ...until Americans are truly confronted by "in your face" crises that affect adversely American lifestyles...then the US DOLLAR will remain king. Until such time, foreigners will continue to flock here and purchase their second and third homes...maintain their usual overseas banking accounts, etc....and ergo, keep the US Dollar propped up in value.

Spock, my thesis may sound chauvinistic...but it's true.

-------------------------------------------------
Spock Says...

No-one is concerned with US gold because they haven't sold any for 20 years and won't becuase Greenspan believes in the stuff. What happens when he goes??

Europe on the other hand, has had steady sales for the last ten years. That's why everyone is talking about Europe.

******************************************************************Farfel Says...

Excuse me, Spock, but did you say Greenspan believes in gold? Excuse me while I choke on my soup. Greenspan, who recently announced publicly that the Fed stood ready to mobilize gold in order to defend the global financial status quo, namely the hegemony of the American Dollar? Is it NOT evident to you that the Clinton Establishment and its Wall Street Masters are extremely anti-gold, providing constant spin against the metal, and probably would sell the entire Fort Knox holdings tomorrow if their hands were not tied by the Constitution?

God, we should all pray that Greenspan goes along with his entourage of Clintonite criminals, hopefully to be replaced by somebody who truly believes in free financial markets rather than the manipulated ones that have put the world into this egregious mess.

As far as Europe's steady sales this past decade, I am not so certain they are so steady...nor am I so concerned since I know that there are Central Bank buyers out there for the gold...NOT merely gold jewelry dealers in tiny downtown shops. Thus, I am actually more concerned that, if the international currency consensus falls apart for any reason, there may be a major Gold BUY PANIC, exacerbated by the huge short position in the metal!

The belief in precious metals great value and as a universal currency is atavistic, almost genetic, and will NOT be replaced by a mere several years of gold sales/leasing by various debt-ridden economies desperate to raise monies.

At least, that's IMHO.

Thanks.

Live Long and Thrive ( synonym for Prosper ) !

F*

Aldebaron
( You're in Taurus, yar? )
Brabo for your last post on buying_gold_coins@kitco.

That is one way we can say thank you to Bart for this great golf discussion site. ANOTHER way some posters and a few lurkers are saying thank you to Bart is by a simple donation, look for Kitco's address o. ANOTHER way is to help find banner advertisers. {Psssst...anyone want to buy a Castle in Scotland?}

When Kitco finally does an IPO and offers shares to us goldbugs, shortly thereafter announcing that kitco is e-tailing {what a horror of a word} gold, we'll all be richer than Crsus, or 70 year old grandmas and young waiters with pentiums.


Disclaimer:
The information presented herein, while not guaranteed by me, has been obtained from sources which have not in the past proved
particularly reliable.

Bid - Offer Price of 1-oz Krugerrands in the Financial Times as quoted by NM Rothschild every day this week so far is $294 - 298.
Regards.........Dabchick

I just read the J.P. Morgan prediction for gold to move toward $265 by March.

It makes you wonder what type of short position that investment house holds in the yellow metal. It must be enormous.

I really doubt that, despite the LTCM crisis, many of the major Wall Street Houses and hedge funds bothered to cover their shorts. Or if they did, they must have quickly re-shorted once they felt safe to do so.

Yet, this anti-gold spin ALWAYS arises whenever there is some international crisis, most recently Brazil. It is almost funny how they just pour it on, desperate to convince everyone that gold is a futile investment.

Will the negative spin win out in the end? I know you feel the force of the anti-gold Establishment is too powerful. Yet, take a look at soaring gold coin purchases in America...and I think there is the beginning of an amazing populist movement into the metals.

While Greenspan and Rubin man the American ship ( and hence the world financial status quo ) , I do tend to agree with you that gold will have trouble in the marketplace. But they are here today...and could easily be gone tomorrow. Since most Wall Street investors regard these guys as de facto MESSIAHS, then what happens when their Messiahs are no longer there? Panic maybe...and a shift in investor perception too?

Since you are a faithful gold long, do not be so quick to give up hope that your investment will benefit you in the end.

Stay the course, Spock, and you and your Vulcan brethren may truly live long and prosper.

Thanks.

F*

Dabchick
Thank you for your sterling work. I look forward to reading whatever you post. Your handle is one of the few words in Ingrish with the letters a, b, and c in alphabetical order.

I have a copy of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds to offer as a prize to the first poster who can tell us two other words having "abc" in alphabetical order. Ummm.... Extrapops has GOLDEN words, indeedy.

nytolTeddo

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990114/dc.html

http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990114/03/tech-insurance

Lots of thought inspirings posts this early Thursday. I think the idea of Kitco going public with shares sold to members is a great idea. Then we could all wirte here and promote our investment. The share price of Kitco could sit right there on the price board next to Radium. Bet it would change more often.

Oh poor good and silver. Going up in coin form as people purchase the metal in fear of Y2K, I believe. There will be a little overhead resistance come Jan 3 2000 if the world hasn't come unglued by then.

To ESCOTERISIST - sorry that my recommendation to sell Yahoo at the opening on Monday which turned out to $368 per share missed the actual top by more than 10%, proving once again you can not get out at the top.

On CLinton the trial starts tommorrow. My thought is that the market will digest the Brazialian turmoil while an abreviated trial takes place and tehen power on to new highs when Clinton gets off and the whole mess "is behind us." Leading to my perdiction of DOW 10,000 before Gold $315.

What is sad is that I can think of reasons for stock to go up and relate what factors will cause that to happen, but with gold nothing makes it go up. I was hoping silver might be different but now believe that with just in time inventories the religion there is no urge to stockpile while supplies are sufficiently ample to keep the pipe line full. Ray Hughes over on SI ( Gold Price Monitor and PAASF boards ) surmises that things won't get "tight" until visable inventores ( comex stocks ) are equal to 4-6 weeks worth of usage or 40-60 million oz by my rough estimate. From that point, in my opinion, we'll have a spike that will be satisfied in part by all the silver bought this year in anticipation of the big Y2K breakdown.

With recessionary fears spreading I doubt the CRB will avoid making new lows. And I'll go out on a limb since I'm feeling so bullish this morning and say "New Lows on the CRB before we see 203."

Am I the only person who doesn't believe that gold's fall from grace has anything to do with central bank manipulation, government conspiracies, cabals of PPT and gold short sellers working with mutual fund tycoons, etc ? I honestly believe the stuff just isn't being used as much as it was, that is, with economies around the world tanking, people just don't want it as much. Think about it, if you're getting fired from your job in Japan working for some big company, are you going to be buying as much gold, or as many sports cars, or any of the other things that are falling in value ? No way man, you're going to be saving money and you're going to stop spending, just like the folks in Japan are doing, and you would expect the Yen's value to increase as people hoarded it away in their back yards, just like what's actually happening. Gold also has industry uses, if companies are cutting back on production, won't that drive the price of gold down as they use less and less of it ? I think so. And jewelry, are the folks in these countries going out and buying as much jewelry as they were ? I doubt it, they're probably net sellers of the stuff, precious metals in general. It's happening with all the commodities, anything that gets dug up, grown, or drilled. Demand is dropping, but have the mines stopped producing ? No, they're digging it up the same as they always have. I could be wrong, I mean, I don't have any huge history in the gold market, but it seems to me that gold is doing what gold does, and that it'll turn around about the same time oil turns around, about the same time we start seeing some real price inflation. If this is deflation, shouldn't we expect gold to drop in price ? Isn't a drop in prices related to "stuff" the definition of deflation ? I think sometime between now and the end of all this the dollar will be doing exactly what the Yen is doing now, getting much stronger, and we'll see gold way down in the dump, not a huge stretch of the imagination, we just have to continue down the road we're already on.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au:80/finance/4320062.htm

I am rather intriqued by the negative gold perdictions that have recently been issued, particularly by investment houses that you wouldn't think would be interested.

Isn't this gold buying by the public ( or trading ) rather miniscule in the total gold supply picture. Hasn't the treasury minted 1-2 million oz of both gold and silver in the last year?? Anybody have the exact or nearly exact number. It's not huge. Coins have rallied because there is a finite supply. But that doesn't increase into gold mining profits. New gold coin issuance has been at records but isn't it rather a small amount in the big picture about equal to on medium size hedge funds position.

FARFEL you are on to a point - doesn't Greenspan's term end soon. Why do I think it is this April. Rubin and AG's departure would be a start - doubt it would be bullish for gold, nothing is bullish for gold except perhaps these investment houses coming out with bearish gold perdictions.

I am rather intriqued by the negative gold perdictions that have recently been issued, particularly by investment houses that you wouldn't think would be interested.

Isn't this gold buying by the public ( or trading ) rather miniscule in the total gold supply picture. Hasn't the treasury minted 1-2 million oz of both gold and silver in the last year?? Anybody have the exact or nearly exact number. It's not huge. Coins have rallied because there is a finite supply. But that doesn't increase into gold mining profits. New gold coin issuance has been at records but isn't it rather a small amount in the big picture about equal to on medium size hedge funds position.

FARFEL you are on to a point - doesn't Greenspan's term end soon. Why do I think it is this April. Rubin and AG's departure would be a start - doubt it would be bullish for gold, nothing is bullish for gold except perhaps these investment houses coming out with bearish gold perdictions.

As an example I give you the Motorola press release from earlier today. Here we have a company that uses gold in industry, making chips. Their earnings have been cut in half, they've let 17000 people go, and they cite falling demand in Asia as one of the primary reasons for their troubles. They just aren't going to need as much gold, period. Am I crazy here or what ? Chip manufacturers have just been eating it, and they aren't the only ones, lots of companies are having trouble with decreased demand, entire industries in fact. Steel isn't anything like gold, but steel is piling up on the docks, it does come from the ground, can't we assume that silver and gold, being mined just like iron might be having a little problem with demand too ? The same countries that have gold and silver as major exports also have steel, oil, etc, as exports. Have they cut back on production to push the prices up ? I doubt it. I dunno, maybe I just don't know what I'm talking about.

abacus alphabetical abcess

ABC n statement of fundmental facts
http://work.ucsd.edu:5141/cgi-bin/http_webster?method=exact?dex=ABC&db=*

Amen, now that's just about the way I would put it. Nice, very nice!!

Australia warned about offering financial assistance to Bougainville
Australia has been warned to be cautious when offering financial assistance to
organisations on Bougainville Island in PNG.

PNG's Opposition Leader, Bernard Narakobi says Australia, through its aid
agencies, is supporting organisations that are not instituted within PNG law.

He says while he supports financial assistance that aids the peace process on
Bouganville, such assistance might end up in the hands of military
organisations and groups.

Mr Narakobi has also asked Australians working on Bougainville to be impartial
and avoid compromising their positions.

He says he'll be making an official protest to the Australian government soon,
on the matter.

any thoughts

There is a lurkers heaven. Nice when someone types it for ya. I'm lousy on the keyboard, takes me forever to type this little ditty. Keep up the great work!!

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=1ym

South Africans down a percent tonight. Falling away from the 50 and 200 day moving average.

Envy, agree with you, industrial uses and applications of silver and gold must be falling. Investment demand is supposed to make up for that fall. I calculated the other day that if industrial usage for silver were to drop to zero - how much investment demand would be required to cover the drop and thus keep the price unchanged.

Lts see: 500 million oz times five dollars and oz equals $2.5 billion.

Gosh, the last time I checked the daily turn over in Yahoo was $4 billion dollars. So it would not take too many reoriented investment funds to take care of the fall in investment demand. But a reorientation would have to occur. Right now that would require the preception of greater prospects for inflation ( not likely ) , a much greater fear of a declining dollar, possible, but it hasn't worked yet, or a down turn in the stock market accompanied by a fall in the dollar - in that we have a chance - though some time down the line I think.

Before the metals will rally on increased investor demand, we have to see it in print. To get every last bear and fence sitter long stocks we must read: DOW HITS 10,000 ( before gold $315 )

The V.o.A. reports in its 10:00Z news broadcast that Mrs. Albright has publicly lectured the Chinese on their legal process with regard to politically active citizens and their sentencing and this in a get together to assert mutual amity of all places. If the report is correct, that is a very large mistake. Mrs. Albright has behaved as a cow in a diplomatic, ahh, china shop. She should have taken the advice of experienced diplomats before opening her mouth, China is not the U.S. This matter will not be forgotten in China. Mr. Greenspan, though arriving cap in hand, may find more mysterious ( to his pedestrian Western mind ) and now quite immovable impediments in the Middle Kingdom than he anticipated.

http://www.intrepid.com/~gary/trading/SP_Day_of_Week.html

devil makes a mean mix..........yall duck'n'hide

Looks like allot of Gann stuff. I'm color blind so.... a little hard to evaluate. Lotta work puttin' those lines in I would think. Anyway, looks like my stacks o' gold arent doing very well.

abcoulomb an electromagnetic unit
abcess

I say lets see a reinactment of the crime....oooh did I say that

With Brazil's problems the average person may need to sell gold . Another depressant for gold or another opportunity to buy cheap depending on point of view. Gold is cheap, the trick is to get folks to realize this and buy. Don't think this is going to happen. U.S. stk. mkt. and bonds will probably benefit again as money comes here.

It looks like the markets are being propped up again like an old nag at the race track. Holy man, I think your chart indicates that gold is going to take the high road rather than the low road. As Robert Frost said I came to two paths in the road, each diverging and I choice the past least traveled by. Surely those of us at Kitco realize that gold has not traveled that high road in several month. Since Merrill Lynch has concluded that gold is no long the world's store for value in crisis that is good enough for me to keep hording it and hoping against hope that ML does not excrement from wallpaper paste. These are tought times and this year will prove the mettle of investors.

I'm always amazed at the volume of typos and missing words which occur between my sceen and a Kitco posting. Sorry again for my misuse and abuse of the English language.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990114/fa.html

Even more about that devaluation in Brazil. No doubt that's going to blast gold all to hell before it's all over, along with everything else. Devaluation has one purpose, to give the country a better trade position. It does that by making imports more expensive and making exports cheaper and thus more attractive to the world's markets. That's just what it does. By all accounts Brazil didn't devalue enough, she'll have to do it again, and maybe again and again, it just a way for her to defend herself against an increasingly ugly trade situation. So fine, she did it and might do it again. The countries around her in South America will likely have to do the same thing to keep their trade position or better it. So what's all that mean for gold ? Well, I just glanced through an atlas here at the house that has all kinds of information about what natural resources the countries of the world have and I'm seeing tin, lead, silver, gold, oil, just about everything coming out of South America. By definition South America has just made all her exports cheaper, ain't no two ways about it. Didn't the Inca's of Peru have a bunch of gold, I'm betting they still mine it up there in those mountains. I know Chile has gold, Columbia too, besides all those pretty emeralds. Bolivia, I seem to remember they mine stuff, so does Brazil, Argentina too. I dunno, but I don't think it's looking too good for the home team. By definition Brazil just made everything she sells cheaper and that includes gold, oil, and whatever else leaves her borders.

This is the January 13, 1999 edition of The Barkerletter, published

in association with The Prospector Exploration and Investment

Bulletin.

Here's a piece for all you gold conspiracy theorists out there...

Inflation Manipulation

By A.Canon Bryan

The market for gold historically has not operated as a function of

its fundamentals. On the other hand, gold has acted as a store of

value which provides a hedge against adverse socio-political

conditions. We look in the world around us and we see a global

deflationary spiral; we see the world's only super military and

financial power mired in a leadership question as well as a brisk

police action in the Middle East, to say nothing of a challenge to

it's reserve currency status; we see the collapse of major financial

systems around the world, including Japan, Brazil, and Russia; we see

a growing uncertainty with respect to a technical glitch which

threatens the very status quo of orderly society.

These are all good examples of the symptoms that would tend to give

gold extrinsic value. However, if this is true, then why is gold

performing so poorly?

World authorities in gold consistently report that demand continues

to soar to record levels, and that central banks, on a policy basis,

have no particular desire to either accumulate or dispose of gold,

save Switzerland. And yet price has stagnated. This means that even

on a fundamental level gold should be performing.

An extremely brilliant trader used to tell me over and over, 'the

market never lies'. Reluctantly, I came to accept this sagacious

saying as being law. Extrapolating the ramifications of this onto

the depressed market for precious metals over recent months, one is

forced to make the following inference: there are unseen forces

which have been, and may continue to, contribute to a burgeoning

supply of gold in the marketplace.

The Financial Times of London has reported steady sales from Goldman

Sachs. They also report that Goldman Sachs is the broker of choice

for United States Treasury Chief, Robert Rubin. They do not,

however, ever make the inference that the US Treasury could be on the

short side of the gold market. Then there's Barron's, who won't let

it's readers forget that Rubin is absolutely the button man for the

US. As well, they wonder how the IMF and hedge funds can continue to

be financed. And yes, they too, wonder about the bear market in

gold.

It seems to me that all the piecesof the puzzle are there, but the

major publications refuse to put them together. Why?

It's no secret that hedge funds, particularly in the US, have

suffered astronomic losses last year, betting on weak Yen and strong

Rubles. It's also widely known and reported that the Fed is far and

away the largest holder of gold in the world. As a matter of

necessity, it would seem prudent for the Fed ( or the Treasury ) to

have a ( secret ) policy to dispose of gold - slowly, in order to

finance floundering enterprises within. But there may another

motivation for the US to sell gold.

The Fed - and the G7 it would seem - have gone out of their way to

annihilate rates to their lowest levels in a generation, while at the

same time maintaining the lowest unemployment for the same period.

As a rule, high employment comes with a cost of inflation. But with

low rates, how could there be inflation? Well, there is no inflation

- there's deflation. At any rate, what are the best indicators of low

inflation? Low interest rates and low commodities prices;

particularly gold. Would it not suit the US Fed, in the interests of

creating a perception of low inflation, to manipulate the price of

gold lower?

Why else would the US want to manipulate a perception of low

inflation? The Barker Letter has reported previously that the US

Dollar is a currency in trouble. With unthinkable debt levels,

growing fiscal deficits, and fast disappearing global demand, no

currency is safe from outright collapse. I believe the Fed

understands this and wishes to artificially manipulate the perception

of strength in the Greenback. This could never happen, however, with

any hint of inflation. I believe this further quantifies my theory

of 'Inflation Manipulation'.

Gold, in the meantime, continues to be subject to constant

unexplained downward pressure. Under this scenario, the gold price

in US$ would not improve until the US$ began a significant decline;

the supposition here being that a gold price in a control currency

would not change, but quoted in a declining currency would improve.

These are things that the gold investor may wish to ponder.

Be careful out there

You have free access to our archives and information at The Daily

Barkerletter website - http://www.barkerletter.com

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE RESOURCE SPECULATORS WE RECOMMEND YOU VISIT

WWW.PROSPECTOR-NEWS.COM FOR DAILY MINING NEWS.

Other sources at Moscow University say nothing happening

Shiver me timbers. Have used the red phone-direct linkup with
Auggie Busch Jr. Instead of using the fleet or nukes, we can
dump 10 truckloads of Budweiser ( 12oz.bottles ) off the Pacific
coast. Mexico to match with Corona & Dos Equis.

The invaders will never make it ashore, but may invade Central America.
Then they will control the bananas.

I know Argentia sold all of their CB gold about a year or so ago. I don't have a reference, but that was what got me interested in gold. They sold it all. I think Brazil dosn't have any gold either. Sure they got gold ore, but I just don't think those countries have very much gold to sell. I suppose will know in a few hours.
On a different note, that article just posted from yahoo.biz about london gold market? Did that make sense? why would India and China have financial turmoil because the price of gold goes down and they are big consumers? I may be confused, I just woke up, I was watching quote.com silver and I fell asleep. I wish I knew where that cigarette went. Must have put it out subconciously.

It's all a plot by the US to own the entire world it seems. As long as everyone is chasing the US Buck, and taking out massive loans, the US has you by the tail. Witness all the nations that have succumbed so far.
Their currencies are worthless against the US Buck, and they have given up most of their Gold to boot.
Im more convinced now than ever that the IMF is a criminal financial organization run by mobsters.
Ask yourself, who have they actually "Helped" lately. The answers are all in black and white.
All I know is the final result will be "VERY UGLY".......

It's more like if they have financial problems they won't such big consumers.

* The majority of America's 103 nuclear power plants have not even finished the assessment stage ( step one )
* 20 out of 66 nuclear power plants are expected to miss the June 30 remediation deadline
* Both the NERC and the NEI are avoiding the term, "compliant."
* US Secretary of Energy is concerned about lagging power utilities
* Rick Cowles says the industry is painting a ( false ) rosy picture
* The power industry is on a 15-70-15 curve. That means 85% would have problems
* Isolating from the power grid can cause blackouts in some areas
* Going back to manual operation of most power plants is impossible
* Supplies of critical replacement parts are backlogged, and some companies might not get them in time
* Emergency response technicians will be spread thin when power failures occur in 2000
* Power in other countries is likely to be worse-off than the United States
* The NRC will be forced to shut down nuke plants if they can't certify safe operation
* Y2K will likely bankrupt some electric utilities
* The Y2K-related loss of electricity will definitely have some economic impact

http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990113.htm

All,

It's been absent q long time here,missed a lot of teaching and infos.As usual,a bit story from me.....
Situations around South east Asia contries getting slightly better,except INDONESIA.The economy, politic tensions,conflicts during 1997 finacial crisis til now around the region easing lately.hoping the time will tell and cured the wounds.Back to the normal life.the peoples struggled to live in the way they are.Why not?It's used to be the Oriental Habit stand strongly after the incidents,such as the world war1& 2,the colonial interventions,opium war,vietnam war,....... ( sorry ) !
Dued to the long Christmas holidays,new year holidays and musliman festival,the "yellow metal " run out of stock!Even the refinery gold!We have to pay such high price to buy the refinery stuff.Since the currencies is weak still,we have to pay the expensive import things..!Anyway,as trader,we buy high and sell high!...

Ops...its hare year,...quite good and soft compared to the tiger year 98....Happy new year!The chinese new year probably 14/feb....gong xi fatt chai....

rgds,
JIN

Great to hear from you again, my family as well as I were
all concerned about you.
Keep well and keep posting.
Have a Happy Chinese and Christian, New Year.
Reify@sitcom.co.il

Quite interesting, really, all over the world non-players, the rabble, the street mob of investors, the common man, or woman, have been silently collecting and securing gold into empty coffee cans buried among their roses. The yellow commodity which popular media and Wall Street have been asiduously contemplating the demise of, attending to the wake of, lamenting the departure from its ability to be recognized as an ultimate cornerstone of VALUE, has been disappearing from coin shops, refinerys and National Mints at an amusing rate. It seems the rabble, those loud populi milling outside the gates below the boardrooms of the fiat barrons, have a hankering for cake a bit stronger than they imagined.

This puts the CBs and IMFs of the world on notice, dont think they havent.

Y2K, and her attendant calamities, will come and go. Impeachments and governmental flatulance will continue to dim the landscape of confidence the Fiats so wearily depend on.... like an old nag at the race track.

How long can the common folk of the world keep collecting the yellow thing before the Fiats realize there is a profit to be made? Ill tell you. They already have.

When the Euro has been shown to her place in the pecking order.
After the DOW crests 10,000, within a months time.
Sooner than anyone outside the INSIDE will anticipate.
Theyll throw some crumbs.

Envy - Good observation, re: gold consumption in these trying economic times. Could not the same be said for platinum?

Aldebaran ( Your 3:40 post ) and ERLE ( Your 2:35 post ) - AMEN!

Email me at cdevoto@abts.net I may be able to help on the yellow.

..We go down in FLAMES ..
to all

IN Zimbabwe .. Mugabe's Gommemt in its wisdom has
imposed a 5 % levy on all stock market transactions
and a 10 % levy on all real estate transactions ..
that should finish off the stock market...

IN RSA.. South Africa students took LAST PLACE
in a World Wide Science and Mathematics competition.
Singapore came first.

Due to the Furbee's internal audio record/playback capability,
they are to be banned from US military bases. - Bloomberg

Be very afraid! Say it's not so. The attack of the Furbees!

There is little doubt in my mind about the manipulation of inflation. As one looks at the deflationary spiral around the globe it becomes apparent
that the usuall result is currency devaluation.
This may sound simplistic, but when the talking heads walk in lock step
in proclaiming continued deflationary pressures in the U.S. my contrarian
inclinations search for the opposite truth. While a deflationary environment certainly exists, there is a profound lack of political and social will to endure the results. THE ONLY CHOICE WILL BE TO INFLATE! Current monetary policy in concert with a consistent line of propaganda is allowing continued pumping of money into the ailing patient while retaining demand for government borrowing at low rates.

A real timebomb hidden in this scenario is the fact that in order to manipulate deficit numbers the U.S. government has substantially shortened the maturity of obligations. In spite of Fed manipulation, interest rates will rise due to reduced demand as the truth becomes apparent to bond markets. This will bring stock and bond markets down togeather! The ONLY choice will be to pump the system.

Then the financial lepers who have been piling up the no longer relevent
metal and associated equities will suddenly be vindicated! Don't wait untill the signals become apparent.

EZ

Soros has been buying $/yen calls with strikes of 130 and 140 via a Swiss and UK name.

Iraq's Aziz says Kuwait belongs to the Iraqi people

BAGHDAD, Iraq ( AP ) - Iraq continued today to question Kuwait's legitimacy as a country, saying its land and coasts belong to Baghdad.
The harsh words from Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz appeared to be part of an ongoing series of verbal attacks against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which Baghdad blames for delaying an Arab League meeting on the Iraqi crisis.

Iraq had hoped that during the meeting, now rescheduled for Jan. 24, it would be able to capitalize on popular protests in the Arab world in the aftermath of the Dec. 16-19 U.S.-British airstrikes against Iraq.

Aziz described Kuwait's borders as ``a bombshell that may explode in the future.'' The comments were made in a front-page commentary, the last in a series of four articles Aziz has written for al-Thawra, the newspaper of the ruling Baath Party.

Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990. Its forces were driven out of Kuwait by a U.S.-led coalition in the 1991 Gulf War.

The invasion prompted the United Nations to impose sweeping trade sanctions against Iraq, which have devastated the country's economy.

Iraq also said today it would reject any solution to its current standoff with the United Nations that does not include a lifting of the sanctions.

France has put a proposal before the U.N. Security Council that calls for the lifting the oil embargo and the imposition of a new monitoring system aimed at preventing Baghdad from acquiring new weapons of mass destruction.

``Sanctions against Iraq in all their facets should be lifted immediately,'' the Iraqi leadership said in a statement after President Saddam Hussein met with his three top aides.

The statement by the official Iraqi News Agency listed several other demands, including subjecting Israel to a system of disarmament and weapons monitoring and making the United Nations forces, the United States and Britain pay reparations for the December raids.

In his previous commentaries, Aziz had defended the 1990 invasion. But in today's article, he did not threaten Kuwait with attacks nor say outright that Iraq rejects the sovereignty of the oil-rich emirate.

Aziz pointed out that Iraq had accepted Kuwait's borders in 1994 as part of a U.N. resolution but complained that the resolution was tailored ``to expand Kuwait's coasts at the expense of Iraq.''

Aziz said Kuwait's acceptance of the arrangement ``means that it intentionally wants to inflict more harm on Iraq and the Iraqi people who at the end of the day are owners of the land and the coasts.''

Iraq has long claimed that Kuwait was part of Iraq during the 400-year rule of the Ottoman Empire and was only separated from the country by the British earlier this century. Kuwait denies the claim.

Kuwait complained today to the Arab League about Aziz's comments, saying ``they are full of lies and deliberate fabrications of history.''

Iraq again began questioning Kuwaiti legitimacy shortly after the December airstrikes.

Until U.N. inspectors certify that Iraq is free of weapons of mass destruction, economic sanctions on Iraq cannot be lifted. But the weapons inspectors were withdrawn shortly before the airstrikes began and Iraq has vowed never to let them to return.

Meanwhile, Pentagon officials said two American warplanes fired missiles at Iraqi surface-to-air missile centers in two separate confrontations in the no-fly zone over northern Iraq today. It was the fourth day in a row that U.S. planes attacked Iraqi sites.

RUSSIA IN DEFAULT ON SOVIET-ERA DEBT
The credit agency Fitch IBCA on 13 January declared Russia's debt inherited from the Soviet Union in default, downgrading it from the level of CC to DD.

The failure of Vneshekonombank to make a $362 million interest payment on 2 December prompted the decision, according to an agency statement.

NEW FOREIGN INVESTMENT LAW IN PIPELINE
The Russian government is preparing a new version of the law on foreign investments, Deputy Economic Minister Vladimir Kossov told Interfax on 13 January.

CENTRAL BANK BAILS OUT PROMSTROIBANK
The Central Bank has granted a 1.5 billion ruble ( $66 million ) stabilization loan to Promstroibank, Interfax reported on 13 January, citing "sources close to banking circles." In exchange the Central Bank has received a 75 percent stake in the company.
JAC
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/1-rus.html

The premium on US 90% continues at a very high level. Do the math and figure how much more silver you can put in your horde by converting from 90% to .999 or some other form. I am supplying one of the end users of 90% and can pay big bucks for bag lots. Email me at lburns@hiwaay.net.

Date: Thu Jan 14 1999 00:50
Steve in TO ( 6Pak - people have continued to promote the idea . . . )
that the Fed was to blame for the terrible devastation of the Great Depression.

At the time people needed a scapegoat to blame for the event, and so they excoriated the Federal Reserve Bank and threw Hoover out of Office.

Steve, Thanks for your take, on my post of last night.

Yes, the subject of the 1930's depression, is very complicated, as is this days view of Golds' direction, and the reasons for golds' lack of positive action, considering, the present day, world financial mess eh!

Thanks Take Care.

Welcome back JIN and thanks for Asian micro-gold econ update! On a personal note your English has improved considerably in last year!
"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived foreward" ---Soren Kierkgaard
"Future. That period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true and our happinesss is assured." ---Ambrose Bierce, ( 1842-1914 )
"History repeats itself. That's one of the things wrong with history." ---Clarence Darrow

jumped by .15% and .20% respectively this morning. This can only mean
that spot POS is about to be hit by short selling. The question now
is should one load up on the dips, or stay out in these deflationary
times?

This is one of the cheapest forms of silver investment for the Y2Ker. It has the added advantage of having a monetary amount attached to it, which will give it added significance in the mind of Joe Blow.

As gold falls this will be one of the best PM plays and should reach 10000 a bag by Y2k But of course what do I know, but I have several bags just in case.

Glad to see your post...hope all is well with you and yours...

what happens if all the oh so sophisticated dipsters decide to short yahoo the same day?

Washington Post
January 13, 1999
Pg. 21

A Toy Story Of Hairy Espionage

NSA Bans Furby From Spy Agency's Premises

By Vernon Loeb, Washington Post Staff Writer

Move over, Aldrich Ames. The National Security Agency has targeted a new national security threat capable of blabbing secrets to U.S. adversaries: the Furby.

As harried parents scrambled in the weeks before Christmas to get their hands on these homely, high-tech cyberpets that supposedly repeat what they hear, the supersecret spy agency put out a "Furby Alert" on its internal intranet in early December and banned the Furby from Fort Meade.

"Personally owned photographic, video and audio recording equipment are prohibited items. This includes toys, such as 'Furbys,' with built-in recorders that repeat the audio with synthesized sound to mimic the original signal," the Furby Alert warned NSA workers. "We are prohibited from introducing these items into NSA spaces. Those who have should contact their Staff Security Officer for guidance."

What the punishment is for having a Furby on your desk at Fort Meade -- or how many Furbys actually are infesting NSA -- could not be immediately discerned. But with all transgressors under orders to turn themselves in, former NSA general counsel Stewart Baker speculated that "getting them [the Furbys] out is going to be almost harder than getting them in."

"You'd have to take them to the basement," Baker deadpanned, "and sweat them a lot."

Equipped with computer chips and the same kind of infrared transmitters and receivers found in TV remote controls, these $29.99 wonders ( sometimes going for much more ) speak, sleep, make weird noises and supposedly interact with their environment, repeating some of what they hear.

It's hard to imagine them divulging state secrets, but who knows more about pulling in what it hears than the NSA, which intercepts electronic communications around the world using satellites and other highly classified means.

NSA officials were worried, said one Capitol Hill source monitoring the intelligence community, "that people would take them home and they'd start talking classified."

Steven Aftergood, who directs the Federation of American Scientists' project on government secrecy, said he wasn't surprised that the NSA, which is nothing if not bureaucratic and secretive, had drawn the line on Furby.

"They can't simply say, 'Be smart, don't do anything to compromise security,' " Aftergood said. "There has to be a page in the security manual that says, 'No dolls with tape recorders.' "

Absolutely nil. The price of gold will trade in the range it has for the past year for many years to come. I am definetely convinced that the yellow metal is manipulated by our own government. The sad part of this is that it is at OUR expense. What will happen is when gold becomes so out of favor and the government has its substantial stock pile of the so called "precious metal", at that point the government will manipulate the price of gold in there favor. It is a NO WIN situation for the private investor owning gold or gold shares. Of course, unless you are a VERY VERY VERY patient investor and have no need of the funds you have tied up in owning a piece of the rock, perhaps in a few years you may be well rewarded for your patience.

Anyone know what his latest thoughts are? It would be appreciated. I can't get onto Avid Trader anymore.

I fail to understand why such views, as those held by Iraq as to ...Kuwaits legitimacy as a country,
voiced through the AP article posted on this forum by Cage Rattler, 10:04, fail to be vilified by my fellow kitcoites.
Everyone in the world knows what Kuwait is about and its historic place in the Baghdad firmament, both culturally and legally. That the British originally established the sovereign as an oil puppet is well known, or so one would imagine. That historically the geography of Kuwait, which might be considered the Texas of Iraq ( if it had ever been more than an out houst in the dunes before British establishment ) , was lopped from her mother by a latter day imperialist move by an exiting British influence, officially speaking, from the region.
Just as they dissected Israel from Palestine, they lopped off of Irag, just like that.
To listen to the AP characterising tje Iraqi sentiment as a continuance of their questioning ...Kuwaits legitamacy as a country, saying its land and coasts belong to Iraq. is laughable. Of course it does. That Tariq Azizz has harsh words concerning this issue are to be expected. Baghdad has never, ever, respected the British theft and never will. The signature to the 1994 accord was a situation weve all seen in the movies where the bad guys have the rancher beaten up and cornered in his ranchhouse. The boss of the gang is thrusting a pen in the face of the rancher saying ...come om, make it easier on yourself and your family...

The AP article makes mention of a characterization that ...Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990. Its forces were driven out of Kuwait by a U.S.-led coalition in the 1991 Gulf War. In Iraqs eyes they were reclaiming land stolen by foreigners.

The AP article makes mention of the historical ownership of the land referred to now as Kuwait only in passing with ...Iraq has long claimed that Kuwait was part of Iraq during the 400 year rule of the Ottoman
Empire and was only separated from the country by the British earlier this century. Kuwait denies the claim.

And then closes the issue with this cute and diligent squaching ..Kuwait complained today to the Arab League about Aziz's comments, saying ``they are full of lies and deliberate fabrications of history.''

And that ...Iraq again began questioning Kuwaiti legitimacy shortly after the December airstrikes.

Rubbish. Please look into the facts of before you post these creative fabrications of corprate-speak as they as though they might be some sort of gospel. Otherwise you unwittingly become an alarmist reactionary acting as an accomplice in these duplicities of political carnivalism.

My apologies to those Arabs out there in Kitcoland who may believe I have made too weak an argument. Please understand that my understanding of the Iraqi dilema is based on what little information I can resource here in the US, Very little as you are well aware, and some dim school days recollections of your regions recent and ancient history.

Meanwhile, Pentagon officials said two American warplanes fired missiles at Iraqi surface-to-air missile centers in two separate confrontations in the no-fly zone over northern Iraq today. It was the fourth day in a row that U.S. planes attacked Iraqi sites.

Peace.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!! The trial begins at 1:00 PM! Wonder what BC will say about the US in his STATE of the Union speech next Tuesday after the beginning of his defense before the Senate, the collapse of the Dow and the collapse of Brazil!

President Clinton will explain why we have to adopt the IMF austarity measures.

If the shorts are going to hit it, sometime in the next twenty minutes will give them their best effect untill this afternoon.

will the mkt start its normal recovery as the trial start gets closer ?

abnormal

Mental stops are telling me to bail on the AU stox... waiting for a miraculous turn-around by close ( not expecting it though )

Bundesbank chief opposes early euro cash debut
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0114/i_ap_0114_43.sml
FRANKFURT, Germany ( AP )
The president of Germany's central bank opposed calls for an early debut of euro coins and bills, saying it will take three years to mint the new European common currency, a newspaper reported Thursday.

Feb gold open int jumped over 8,000 contracts
Apr about 400 yesterday. Given that most of the trading was here ( 286.7 11:03 am ) or below, there are a lot of new shorts that are losing today. Most are going to be getting out of Feb in about two weeks. Wonder what will happen?

Gold chart looks like one of those double fake formations. Rounded bottom going higher ( first fake ) followed by a seeming continuation of the trend sharply lower ( second fake ) followed by the massive short covering rally by the trend followers. $300 gold before Feb. 318 before my dozen options expire.

A DOW Tumble won't ressurect GOLD. Not entirely unexpected anyhow.
Iraq low intensity shenanigans won't either. Nor affect oil.
Brazil / S. American woes might affect the US$ and DOW but not gold.
Nor a further Russian default situation. Discounted an
Nor , immediately, a Clinton eviction ( unlikely anyhow though still possible )

What might ?......

A bond meltdown. What will precipitate that ?

Inflation reappearing out of somewhere..... That will do it ! I wonder what combination of circumstances will lead inevitable to that ....

Y2K MIGHT... ( We all hope )

A Japanese / regional Gold-backed currency play could

An alien contact. But who would care anyhow. We'd all be in shock.

The Return of a world spiritual leader - my personal favourite !

An asteroid. ( Small one please GOD ! ) Where would we spend our profits !

A world war - starting in the middle east...Palestine due to declare statehood soon...

A bigger Muslim world conflagration - including Indonesia - Saddam is calling for this again...

A Pakistan-India mushroom cloud war

North Korea shooting off a ballistic missile or two. A 3 day retaliation turning it into a carpark would be yesterday's news too fast...

Any other clever ideas ?

Last I saw on Avid was that he was not feeling well and someone pissed him off last weekend and he has not been heard from since. I have been checking every night and have not seen him unless I have somehow missed his postings.
Has anyone else seen him about. If not, sure wish he would come back.

that was going to mint small ( 1/10 oz? ) gold coins? Mooney, Selby, anyone?

Someone earlier used the word, "extrinsic". I don't know why but this got me to thinking. One of the reasons I consider myself a gold bug is that I believe that there is extreme systemic risk for paper based assets. Then it occurred to me that paper assets draw their value from extrinsic forces, i.e. some outside institution or entity confers value upon the paper asset and the people trust this. When the trust breaks down ( moral hazard ) the value of the paper asset falls. Gold on the other hand derives its value from its intrinsic properties. The luster of gold, its use in industrial endeavor, its historic acceptance as value ( five millenniums ) , its inability to corrode, and for the man who wishes to spread his seed far and wide: a tool of romance. A man without gold runs the risk of being an economic slave. The man with gold is truly sovereign. The accepted global leadership knows this ancient truth very well. I believe they would like for the masses to forget this ancient truth.

Of course I worry that once the masses relearn this ancient truth - goldbugs could become the scourge of the earth. We would become the villains just like property owners became the villains whenever socialists or communists came to power. Remember it must be noted that men with bad instincts are more in number than the men with good instincts. A lot of people will be angry with those who can thrive in the coming environment. I believe the folks here at KITCO are the ones with good instincts.

Anyone remember when it was the same or less than gold?

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/99/0125/6302082a.htm

I've heard it all before, that gold has found it's stopping point.
It will thrash in the 280-310 range forever, perhaps dipping down
to 270 from time to time, but with no more excitement than that.

I think that this is a misunderstanding of how market manipulation
really works. I will concur that the market is artificially
depressed, but only at great expense by those who seek to depress it.
It's a sacrifice that they are making, and the beneficiaries of
the sacrifice are ONLY the investors who purchase gold while the
manipulators sell it under value.

If matters were to go on like this "forever" the manipulators will
run out of gold! They only thing that can truly devalue gold is
if gold loses it's appeal to the hearts of men. BALDERDASH!!! It's
gold, man. And you KNOW IT.

For those who question the value of gold, I beg to ask: what is
your prefered storehouse of value? A fistfull of fancy bonds,
printed on that fine intaglio paper? Hmmmm, very impressive. Or
perhaps you'd like to own some Emerging Markets bonds, like a big
fat chunk of Brazil's future? Go for it. And let's not forget
the stock market... heck, jump right in! Go grab up some eBay,
who cares if they show a profit? You'll find a bigger fool, no
doubt.

No thank you sir. Thank you, m'am. I'll stick with the yellow
metal. The old adage that "an ounce of gold will buy a fine suit"
is no longer true. It takes at least 3 ounces of gold today to
get a fine suit, and it's not because the cost of suits is going
up! It's because gold is cheap. I'm no rich man, but I can save
enough money in two weeks to buy an ounce, and my ounces are piling
up. The tiny cigar box which holds my savings now weighs more than
the shotgun which protects it. And I'm not selling.

~Silas~

I've heard it all before, that gold has found it's stopping point.
It will thrash in the 280-310 range forever, perhaps dipping down
to 270 from time to time, but with no more excitement than that.

I think that this is a misunderstanding of how market manipulation
really works. I will concur that the market is artificially
depressed, but only at great expense by those who seek to depress it.
It's a sacrifice that they are making, and the beneficiaries of
the sacrifice are ONLY the investors who purchase gold while the
manipulators sell it under value.

If matters were to go on like this "forever" the manipulators will
run out of gold! They only thing that can truly devalue gold is
if gold loses it's appeal to the hearts of men. BALDERDASH!!! It's
gold, man. And you KNOW IT.

For those who question the value of gold, I beg to ask: what is
your prefered storehouse of value? A fistfull of fancy bonds,
printed on that fine intaglio paper? Hmmmm, very impressive. Or
perhaps you'd like to own some Emerging Markets bonds, like a big
fat chunk of Brazil's future? Go for it. And let's not forget
the stock market... heck, jump right in! Go grab up some eBay,
who cares if they show a profit? You'll find a bigger fool, no
doubt.

No thank you sir. No thank you, m'am. I'll stick with the yellow
metal. The old adage that "an ounce of gold will buy a fine suit"
is no longer true. It takes at least 3 ounces of gold today to
get a fine suit, and it's not because the cost of suits is going
up! It's because gold is cheap. I'm no rich man, but I can save
enough money in two weeks to buy an ounce, and my ounces are piling
up. The tiny cigar box which holds my savings now weighs more than
the shotgun which protects it. And I'm not selling.

~Silas~

And it has financial ramifications:

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/32

Who WAS that masked man?

Manipulators running out of gold...

How so, they only deliver paper. The gold remains in the vault. It may even be sold again on another day. How much does the fed have? How much have they leased? Who's gonna audit?

Art Bell interviewed electrical industry insider Stuart H Rodman last
night ( 01/12/99 Tue/Wed ) . . He discussed the possible effects of Y2K on the power grid.
Art reserved all of his lines for people who work for power companys. The
result was quite insightful. Some callers indicated that while they were
telling the public that everything is fine, power company CEOs were
outfitting their houses to run on solar energy and consulting lawyers
concerning their liability if the grid goes down. Very interesting. You can listen to the show at on real audio at:

http://ww2.broadcast.com/artbell/archive99.html#jan99

Rodman didn't come on until the second hour of the show, so you can fast
forward through the first hour if you want.

Saddam Hussein to start a bun fight....

There's a great article about Gary at the following URL:
http://www.wired.com/news/news/culture/story/17193.html
Definately worth reading to anyone interested in what motivates y2k doom-and-gloomers.

---snip---

"Through his Web site he can help to fan
the flames of Y2K panic to create social
disorder so the social systems of the
world crash. It's out of the ashes of
those systems that he thinks the kingdom
will rise," says Frederick Clarkson, author
of the book Eternal Hostility: The
Struggle Between Theocracy and
Democracy.

The kingdom? Some sort of cultish
year-2000 prophecy, perhaps?

Nope. It's none other than the Kingdom of
God and the return of Jesus Christ,
events that North believes won't happen
until a Draconian biblical law is imposed
for a thousand years.

For North, there's no better way to pull
the plug on an ungodly society than
fanning the flames of Y2K panic.

---snip---

Year end has me rethinking my investments, I've had direct deposit into a gold mutual fund for about 14 months now. Hard to watch %500 percent gains in Internet bubble stocks while I'm looking at my yearly statement and a %30 loss of capital. I tell ya, if this y2k panic doesn't start moving gold off the shelves I might have to pick up some of them Yahoo shares. Buy the dips, right?
; )

ps: Good reading at the NRC site about nuke power plants. Check out http://www.nrc.gov

Down over 6% now. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^BVSP&d=1d

Central Banks hold and buy gold if it has no monetary value?

82% of large corporations expect to have 75% of their mission critical systems ready by 1/1/2000.

What about the other 25%? "They have contingency plans" or do they???

Can you run a "LARGE" corporation with 25% of its m/c systems down???

If 80% of *_ALL_of_the_large_US_corps_* have 25% of their m/c systems down can the economy actually function? How long?

What is the definition of "mission critical"?

Typically it is defined as a system which will shut down your enterprise if it is not operable.

If you had 100 mission critical systems

and 75 of them are compliant

will your organization

still operate?

I don't

think

so.


One must also take into account that these systems do not operate independently of each other. They are tied together in a web of data streams. If one system is good but is dependent on a bad system then the good system is dead as well.


Can you spell b-a-n-c-r-u-p-c-y? Of course you can!

1 ) Life is'nt fair.
2 ) The British & USGovts are corrupt, imperialistic, evil, immoral, renegade States.

Unfortunately, the average American is completely indoctrinated, & is somehow able to rationalize the deaths of 100s of thousands of Iraqi children & the miserable existance that millions of innocent people have been reduced to.

You are absolutely right, but making this case for Iraq seems like feeling sorry for Hitler and suggesting we should return Austria to the Third Reich.

Director of Bank supervision resigns for personal reasons...
Rumour ...Central Bank going to convert to a full trading REAL float...

nasdaq off 28

Wednesday January 13, 9:22 am Eastern Time
Note: this article has a followup with more information.

Rpt-Brazil'S Sao Paulo Bourse Halts Trade After
Bovespa Drops 10 Pct

( This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an article soon )

Out of Stocks into Bonds.
When will people WAKE UP ?

13:27 DOLLAR GAINS AGAINST EUROPEAN CURRENCIES; GOLD ALSO HIGHER.
13:21 U.S. PROSPOSES REMOVING U.N. CEILING ON IRAQI OIL SALES -- A.P.

for the man doth make eminently good sense! This trial WILL not only be the trial of the century, it will be the trial of the country and of the world economy! The TRUTH will hurt not only BC but every US citizen and every US dollar! BC will not survive the searchlight of what he's about to face! BRAZIL, IRAQ, KOSOVO, the ME, JAPAN, RUSSIA, N. KOREA, Y2K, the impeachment of William J. Clinton--the current confluence of events is most diabolical and untimely. and most fitting for the last year of the most troubling century in world history! From the ashes of the 20th century meltdown of truth, justice and the American way will come the nexus for a new world order--a world ordered on the truth, justice, reliablity and stability of GOLD! With the demise of BC will come the rise of AU!

If stocks take gas, why would you not want to have been positioned in cash and bonds? Do people here Really feel they will tank together simultaneously? Do you REALLY believe this based on action of the last couple of years?

Well now, son, thar's good volatility and thar's bad volatility, but the best kind of volatility is the kind that leaves your closing price looking good on the charts.

ME meltdown next?

Manipulators have "Allowed" Gold to rise 10 cents !!!

Here's what will make gold go up: Civil War in the US.

A battle between totaltarianism and liberty will unfold over the next few years. The political polarization has already taken place ( 2/3 for totaltarianism, 1/3 for freedom ) . The economic war has already begun. Fed manipulation ( sale ) of gold is just one battle. Gold breeds sovereign individuals. Who do you think is buying?? The shooting war will begin when our extra-constitutional government tries to confiscate gold and guns. It will spread rapidly to our own military community, as has the militia movement. Be afraid, be very very afraid.

Got Gold, Grub, Guns, and God?

I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees.

January 14, 1999

Fed official sees plenty of vigor in U.S. economy

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. economy is starting 1999 with plenty of momentum, and its vigor is unlikely to fade any time soon despite turmoil abroad, a Federal Reserve governor said Thursday.

"We have very, very scant evidence to date -- certainly not in the statistics and not in the anecdotal evidence -- that a slowdown is beginning to occur yet," Fed Governor Edward Kelley told Reuters in an interview.

He said it was too soon to gauge the threat posed by Brazil's currency crisis as he noted that strong domestic activity in the United States was so far offsetting slower growth internationally.

is increasing by the minute. Next shelf of support is down at 8695

The most public and visible of executives of our day is a public liar. BC lies and we eat the lies. We become accustomed to lies; accepting of them. Life becomes one lie after another. He is there because we are a people, a generation which tells lies and which lives a lie.

Self interest has the ascendency. No one blushes anymore. No one cares about something called the truth. Everything is image. We are more concerned with feelings than with reality. If the other person wants to hear 'X' then we say "X". If it will materially affect our place in the world we say "X" to protect oursleves. If things really are 'z' we will try whatever wording we can to make it SOUND like "X". We will all feel better and then go our own ways.

"Everything will be fine. He said, "X". "

"I feel better knowing he said, "X"."

~~~~~

Aesop's fable ended thus; "Distrust interested advise".

So you must ask yourself this:

If, in such a day in which we live, where lies are accepted as the common currency of social, commercial and political communication, where lies are not only tolerated but used with reward and success by the least to the greatest in this land, then who will tell the truth if the truth means acknowledging that great difficulties and disappointments await us all?

Who would say so if such admissions made one liable or admitted culpability?

Who would say so?

Then why do you insist on believing the lies of these people???

Good Morning from the hot 'n humid South Seas.

Seeing as how I didn't specify, as I intended, that the letters a,b and c should be together, both Aldebaron and Goldbaron win themselves a copy of Extrapops.
So, mes cheres barons, either post your email addresses or arrange for third parties to contact me.
Also I had no idea that abscess is spelt abcess in merkan ingrish.

I was looking for: ABCOULOMB, ABCHALAZAL, ABCAREE, CRABCAKE, DRABCLOTH, and the proper nouns BABCOCK and ABCOUDE ( city in the Netherlands )

All
NZ's Prime Minister, Jenny Shipley is due to have a meeting with Rubin this afternoon, I doubt she has her hand out. I find her speaking tones very matronising, I wonder if she'll make a dowdy appearance on merkan TV.

{coin a word a day}

With the Dow down 194 points, I cant keep from wondering
if WJC & RR will buy futures today to stem the downturn.

Questions on CBS right now is that if the DOW tanked by
1000/1200 points what would the Senate do? Rudman's
answer to Dan Rather was: They would probably wrap it
up in a hurry.

What a sad state of affairs when a President can get away
with crimes because the stock market, which has been
artificially manipulated for many months, may adjust to
realistic figures.

In any event, I would very much expect to see NO ATTEMPT
to halt the downtrend of stocks while the Senate is in session
to impeach this criminal President.

BUT....Will the attempts to keep GOLD in a trading range
continue. I think the answere is: YES. AG, RR and the
Central Bankers will continue to fight that battle which effects
them directly.

What day was, or is, January expiration on options ?

I think you missunderstood Cage Rattler's post.
But besides that, I'm sure many kitcoites agree with your opinion about America's war mongering policy against Iraq.
A lot of nonsense, even dangerous and genocidal nonsense is possible in this country.
Look at Madeleine, the daughter of Dracula. She never made publicly a secret out of her thirst for Iraqi blood. At a televised interview before the December bombings, I heard her justifying her blood thirst by saying, that when the bombing of Iraq would be executed, it could be expected by the devil ( i.e., Saddam H. ) , that he himself would kill his own coutrymen after such bombings, and present them to the world public as poor victims of US bombing.

She got away with this murderous nonsense. Nobody criticized her for it.
Where else is such murderous rottenness possible, expressed publicly by a leading politician?

About the 250,000 children, who have died in the meantime due to the sanctions, she said something like: You cannot put this guilt trip on me.
In other words: she gives a sh*t.

Since seven years the UN team tries to certify that there are or are no weapons of mass distruction and couldn't come up with any credible evidence but also not with any kind of sanction lifting certificate. They want an eternal job of researching Saddam's bedrooms for weapons of mass destruction and if they have reached this goal they will complain that he broke his duty for unconditional permission for research because they were not allowed to watch him at the men's room.

The guy in charge of y2k for Alaska ( a petty bureaucracy ) says " I have a problem with peoplewho are storing up food and ammunition, Alaskans have to hang together" That makes me afraid.

Watched the " Snitch" on Frontline couple of nights ago. Peopleare in prison for l o n g terms on the unsubstantiated testimony of guys " singing for thier supper" to get out of l o n g terms. 18 year old kids are going to jail for 30 years for a few grams of cocaine, we have put an army of them in jail...that makes me afraid.

Jurys are formed of well meaning, goodhearted, ignorant fools.. that makes me afraid.

The World is tetering on the brink of finnancial collapse and Sensenbrener is windbagging in the senate, pumped up with pompous legal jargon, and rightous indignation over behind the barn stuff. That makes me afraid.

As a nation we are minding everybodys business but our own. But my life has been a comedy of errors and I wiggled thru, we'll still get by, probably by the grace of a timid little god we don't even know.

The FedGov will simply buy it up.

Buy it ALL up. Who's to stop them? Who can question the actions of
the Federal Reserve? Nobody.

The Fed will end up owning the Dow 30 ... trillions of dollars pulled out of the market will wash over the American economy in a frenzy of inflation.

All that inflation hidden in the Dow index will manifest itself as a bleed-out of inflation.

Gold will be declared illegal & confiscated. Or at least, they'll try ( chuckle ) .

The Fed will then just start the whole mess all over again ... unless, of course, the American people repeat 1776 and put a definitive & final end to this cabal of would-be overlords.

Thomas Jefferson warned us that if we ever allowed the bankers to take over, our grandchildren would wake up slaves one day...

Spud

14:52 PPT PREVENTED FROM REACHING POSTS BY TRAFFIC

Sovereign...good stuff. ( Both times. )

"Thomas Jefferson warned us that if we ever allowed the bankers to take
over, our grandchildren would wake up slaves one day... "

Sorta like little toddling human alarm clocks?

babble...babble...babble...there is no line between news and entertainment...

If you know what day January expiration is, or was, could you post the date ?

January equity options expire at the close tomorrow, Jan. 15.

Found it at CBOE website, apologies for asking, "What is the expiration date? The last day ( in the case of American-style ) or the only day ( in the case of European-style ) on which an option may be exercised. For stock options, this date is the Saturday immediately following the third Friday of the expiration month; however, brokerage firms may set an earlier deadline for notification of an option buyer's intention to exercise. If Friday is a holiday, the last trading day will be the preceding Thursday."

A CELL PHONE CONVERSATION PICKED UP TODAY
IN WASHINGTON DC.

Mr. President, this is Robert. I have a check here for 2 million that
has been drawn against the fund that is used to support the US Dollar.
I need a counter signature so that we can stop this minor downward
"glitch" in the DOW. Can I hand carry it to you for your signature?

No, I don't think so this time Robert. Those old farts over in the Senate need to get the message: Let the DOW tank! A great howl will then come up from the 60% of the population that is playing the markets.
If the DOW tanks while I am on trial, it wont be my fault. The fault
will clearly lie with the Senate. Perhaps we should even be thinking of selling what ever futures we have that are, as yet, not expired.

It is indeed refreshing to be associated with the best of the "crusty individuals" and "salt-of-the-earth" folks who make up the Kitco group.

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil ( AP ) -- Trading was temporarily halted in Brazil's main stock market this afternoon after the index fell 10 percent, a day after its Central Bank president resigned and Brazil decided to let its currency slide against the U.S. dollar. Brazil's action raised fears that the 18-month-old financial crisis that has battered Asia and Russia had not gone away and could bring down other economies in Latin America. Traders also worry that U.S. multinational companies operating in Brazil could take a big profit hit. Sao Paulo's market, the largest in Latin America, was up early this morning after closing 5 percent lower Wednesday but turned steeply lower in the afternoon, setting off a circuit-breaker that automatically halted trading for 30 minutes. Traders said there were unconfirmed rumors that some local hedge funds were having problems, coupled with the resignation today of the Central Bank's director for banking system supervision, Claudio Mauch. Mauch said his resignation had been planned for months. In neighboring Argentina, Buenos Aires stocks that closed off 8.8 percent a day earlier had fallen 4.2 percent by the afternoon while Mexico's stock market was 0.6 percent lower at midday. Mexican stocks posted their ninth straight drop Wednesday, failing to register a single session with gains so far this year. The Central Bank, meanwhile, said today that about $2.3 billion in currency outflows had left Brazil the past two days.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn01.htm
--
Korondy, Thank you for 15 Jan

NRC draft contingency planning document states:

C. REGULATORY RESPONSE

As discussed in Section III, the nuclear industry is pursuing a program to identify and remediate Y2K issues that could affect facility operations. The program will incorporate effective contingency planning for reducing the risks associated with unanticipated Y2K-induced events. Despite these activities, there remains some risk that software-based systems, components,or equipment will still be subject to Y2K-induced events at key rollover dates that affect facility operations. These risks are primarily external to the plant and are of particular concern with regard to electric grid availability ( loss of offsite power ) . If such
events were to occur, to continue to operate the nuclear plant safely generating electrical power during the transitional period, the plant licensee may have to ( 1 ) take actions that depart from a license condition or a technical specification and ( 2 ) seek immediate approval from the NRC for such a departure from a license condition or technical specification. These actions may be in the best interest of maintaining public health and safety during the Y2K transition period.

The task force recognizes that the nexus between maintaining a reliable electric power grid and public health and safety is less clear and less direct than that which has traditionally been associated with NRC's statutory requirements under the Atomic Energy Act. However, because the potential impact of the Year 2000 problem is so widespread, the task force believes that failure to provide electricity to customers at this critical time may have adverse public health and safety consequences.

The potential for adverse impact on public health and safety results primarily from the fact that an unreliable grid can adversely affect NPP safety. An unreliable grid may result in a loss of offsite power at a NPP. A loss of offsite power requires NPPs to rely on their onsite sources of emergency power. Exclusive reliance on emergency power sources increases the overall plant risk from other, possibly Y2K-related, problems at the plant. In fact, probabilistic risk assessments frequently identify the loss of both onsite and offsite ac power, referred to as station blackout, as a situation that constitutes a major portion of the total plant risk.

In addition, failure to provide the electricity to the grid may also have an impact on public health and safety in a broader sense. For example, in mid-July 1995, a heat wave struck the upper Midwest and contributed to a number of fatalities in the Milwaukee and Chicago areas. Many of the fatalities were directly attributed to the heat, and involved people without access to air conditioning. A loss of the grid during this period would have likely resulted in an increased number of fatalities. In situations like this, grid reliability has a direct relationship to public health and safety.

In an effort to help ensure reliable power to the electric grid during the transitional period of the Y2K rollover date, as an important aspect of the protection of public health and safety in the broader sense discussed above, the task force recommends the following:

Licensees may invoke 10 CFR 50.54 ( x ) to maintain continued plant operation, providing the licensee determines that no significant safety concern results during a Y2K transition period of several days beginning on January 1, 2000.

- or -

The staff may provide a revised enforcement discretion policy specific to the Y2K transition period with specific guidance on those circumstances under which continued plant operation would be permitted and no significant safety concern results.

The NRC will provide support staff consisting of projects and enforcement personnel in the Operations Center to assist licensees in making prompt operability determinations during this transition period.

The NRC has determined that if the agency were to address Y2K issues affecting plant operability within the existing regulatory framework and procedures, continued safe operation of the facility could be necessarily adversely impacted, thereby potentially resulting in adverse impact on public health and safety by forcing an unnecessary plant shutdown. NRC approval for relief from a technical specification or license condition under current practices for notification of enforcement discretion would
be too cumbersome and unworkable given the desire for prompt action if the licensee determines that continued safe plant operation is possible.

The above options are currently under review and a final determination on the appropriate approach to address this issue will be made after consideration of stakeholder input.

http://www.nrc.gov/NRC/COMMISSION/COMS/com1998-036/y2kcplan.html

I think this says that the NRC will not unreasonably require all nuke plants ( NPP ) to be shut down on July 1. Too many fearmongers out there. What I expect is some localized, temporary power outages, phone outages, etc. What I also expect are cash, food, gas runs prior to the date, similar to the panic prior to hurricanes. Y2K will NOT be a non-event. But it will NOT be TEOTWAWKI.

The Department of Energy Y2K group is planning joint utility/phone interoperability testing to prepare for unexpected failures.

Let's ALL just exploit the hell out of the PPT's
"last thirty minute" interventions.

They CAN'T really let this market go down.

If they do - it's all over. Period.

Even if Clinter tried to save himself by trying
to "punish" the people via market crash - I think
there are others who would correct him.

Spud, buy gold, repudiate the Federal Reserve manipulators-shysters!

Bearish article on cnnfn.com at
http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/wires/9901/13/gold_wg/

---snip---
"Brazil was the main focus of attention today and the
dollar has benefited initially on the back of that and gold
has suffered. I guess there is a fear that Brazil will sell
gold to cover its shortfall," one dealer said.
...
"It is all adding up at the moment. You hear a bit of
not good news, bad news there...there is really no
reason for gold to go higher," one German dealer said.
---snip---

Tyro re: your 15:39
Well said. Enough legimate possibilities to be concerned about without fearmongering and paranoia.

Todays "Gary North" link:
http://nova.smu.edu/garynorth.htm
God, I love this guy.

Remaining in cash from June. Had bet some gambling money in June on PUT options and made a profit, rolled the profit back over into PUT options as a crash bet and kept the original money. It didn't work out that way, options expire tomorrow, quite worthless of course as they were out-of-the-money when I bought them. Jerry Favors is smart. He seems to think the market will break 10000 with a few points to spare, so I'll be back on market watch waiting for us to get up there so I can, again, purchase my PUT options for a possible crash. Not trying to make a few bucks on the options and not betting real money, waiting for the play that looks like a touchdown. Could be years, who knows, I'll be in cash until then. Who can say, things move fast in the big city.

Cardoso tells IMF that Brazil under control

BRASILIA, Jan 14 ( Reuters ) - Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso spoke with the first managing director of the International Monetary Fund Stanley Fischer Thursday and told him the country's economic crisis was under control, a presidential spokesman said.

( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Sold all AU MF shares - profit in question ( MF closing price... )
I suppose the XAU will now resume it's upward climb tomorrow...

Good luck.

If the god you serve is timid and little you are certainly not serving the God of the Bible. Read Hebrews 10:31. "It is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the living God". Unless, of course, we come to Him on His terms, which are, through His Son, Jesus Christ.

Because Jesus was meek and lowly when he came as our suffering saviour, does not mean that He will still be meek and lowly when He comes back ( very soon ) as "the Lion of the tribe of Judah", to rule with a rod of iron.

Gee, youd think the feds would be honest and say "we aren't sure what the hell were going to do", rather than paying lawyers to say that the issue is just "too cumbersome" for us to figure out. ( I wonder if they could define the word "sex" for Mr. Clinton? )

As I recall, Jeil's charts were calling for a major low for Gold at the end of January or early February. Would someone please post a link to his charts, and would anyone care to comment further about the likelihood of his prediction coming to pass, based on the chartwork of people other than Jeil?

Also, Allen, I appreciate your posts very much. The answer you called for is "b-a-n-k-r-u-p-t-c-y."%^ ) )

Let me warn you though, with pork prices at a 50 year low I hear farmers are turning them loose rather than take them to market. Brilliant pearls of truth like that is likely to cause an unwelcome stampede.

Too bad!

Ruthenium, Osmium, Yttrium, Rhodium... I think those are the rarer ones. I can never remember what they are used for, and I guess that I don't need to know. However, one poster recently listed uses for Rhodium, and I believe he left omitted a major use, that being for coating lenses for night-vision. Cadillac is coming out with a mind-blowing night-vision set-up for their year 2000 models. That, plus increased demand for military use and possibly Y2K use by both private and public parties, will increase the demand for Rhodium. Am I not correct in my thinking? I believe those are reasons that Rhodium, in the upper right portion of this screen, continues to go up in price. With those thoughts in mind, and believing that the rarer PGM's are found *only* with Platinum or Palladium, I have bought the penny stocks of north American producers/ explorers of same. I think that I am in a minority position, with that thinking. That's OK with me. I think I'm far ahead of the pack, buying shares for mere pennies. And later this month, those shares may trade even lower, if the Precious Metals go down in price. I see this as a *great* buying opportunity, arriving within the next several weeks.

Lightened up in XAU stocks, too, today. The So. African index and the XAU are now both below their 50 and 200 day moving averrages after the new year's bounce. When the XAU can rally when the DOW declines I'd be moved to get more aggressive. Silver over $5.25 is a key for me as well. I suppose tomorrow we'll see a rally back up to that level, especially since it is Friday.

But the inability of the metals and the miners to hold rallies with the financial background we have, tells me deflation is the bigger story, declining industrial demand is not being countered by an increase in investor net buying.

FULL TEXT-Agnico-Eagle noteholder warning
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990114/z3.html

IMF: Russian aid package abandoned, no plan yet for new one
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0114/i_ap_0114_64.sml
The first deputy parliament speaker, Vladimir Ryzhkov, said Thursday that Brazil's economic turmoil, coming on top of crises in Asia and Russia, could prompt the IMF to review its strategies for emerging markets.

"It is obvious that the financial methods once offered by the IMF have proved unfeasible and should be revised,'' Ryzhkov said, Interfax reported.

Jims - "We watch this Gold market together, No?"
Well, in the meantime I'll be watching for ANOTHER entry point...

Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.81. The 233 day moving average is 29.74

Where did they say, 'the issue is just "too cumbersome" for us to figure out.'?????

What I posted was a discussion by NRC that said that they were considering being flexible IF and when TSHTF to keep power on the grid.

Click on the link and READ the document. Not only are they remediating and TESTING the systems, but they are preparing for unknowns/contingencies. What I'm wondering, without inventing problems, is how much of this is real, and how much 'feel good.' Having spent lots of time reading Gov't reports, this looks like it's mostly real, without much feel good. Let's focus on the best real information, not fear-mongering. I think it will be bad enough as is. That's the problem when you can't trust the information that Gov't puts out. Some is truth, some isn't, and the trick is to figure out which is which.

All: Haven't seen the link posted for this yet:
http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1998/view1298.htm

Does anyone have an estimate of the total market cap of gold shares??

XAU/Spot Ratio = .240. The 233 day moving average is .247

in sympathy with the U.S. Forces who have been embarresed by Clintler's gay policies & otherwise weakened & humiliated by his misguided, self serving agendas.

Morbius--Although I don't agree with the partition of Kuwait, I understand that those things happen in the real world. What has really appalled me is the indifference & callousness that the western world, particularly the U.S., has displayed towards the Iraqi people.

COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Jan. 14

-- TOTALS
Gold 809,210 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 75,904,506 - 316,584 troy ounces
Copper 99,378 + 1,130 short tons

Spock, my Vulcan friend, I hate to see you feeling so glum about your gold investments. Since you are a self-professed devoted goldbug, I felt I would prepare a list of reasons why gold fails to respond to "crises" spreading across the world. Hopefully, once you consider this list, you will be encouraged to increase your long gold position:

1 ) NON- American World Crises -- Spock it doesn't matter what happens in Brazil or Russia or Indonesia or wherever. The average American investor today is the most insular creature on the face of the planet. Essentially, if he is not feeling direct negative effects from any of these purported crises, then as far as the average American is concerned, the crisis simply does NOT exist. It is merely printing on a newspaper, digit bits on a computer screen...it is science fiction and has no emotional impact. In fact, American investors are so emotionally removed from these events that the pain and suffering in these other lands can actually be intellectualized, revised, and "beautified," such that Americans will actually exult in these very negative events. Remember, when the Asian crisis broke forth, Wall Street analyst BULLS cheered for joy, explaining the wonderful deflationary benefits that would accrue to Americans through cheaper imports and ergo, lower inflation threats. The BULLS cheered even more the idea that wealthy Asians would soon park all their flight monies into the American markets. The American stock market and the American Dollar held a great celebration and ran themselves into a vertical mania of joy. Now, in perfect hindsight, why would any goldbug imagine that the Asia crisis should have been bullish for gold? Bullish for the dollar certainly, but NOT gold. Analogously, the Russian crisis, the Brazilian crisis, etc. can all be reinterpreted as wonderful opportunities for America through cheaper products and flight monies headed for American financial markets and the Dollar. The Canadian and Aussie de facto Dollar devaluations...all GREAT stuff because it means cheaper goods in America.
Remember, since America's manufacturing industry has, for all intents and purposes moved offshore, then diminished imports from foreign countries are not as important...and for those afflicted American manufacturers, they still benefit through cheaper imported raw materials and masses of increased liquidity provided by a government willing to "loan" them out of their crises.

2 ) Clinton Impeachment Threat -- the average American investor, aside from being very insular is also extremely cynical today. These investors truly doubt the likelihood of Clinton's impeachment and are convinced categorically that a deal has already been worked out in the Senate to exonerate the fellow. Moreover, the feeling is that if Clinton's out, Gore's in...and what's the big difference, especially since Rubin and Greenspan, America's financial Messiahs, stay on the job. So, the result is NO FEAR whatsoever, hence no conceivable flight to gold on that basis.

3 ) Iraqui War Threat -- again, Americans have never believed from square one that Iraq is a real threat against this country. They have no respect for Iraq's military threat and basically seem to think Iraquis are, at best, but a step more sophisticated than pig farmers. Every time the Iraqui War threat is raised in the media, most Americans let out one huge yawn, then go get themselves another beer from the fridge. Net Effect: gold languishes.

4 ) Inflation Threat -- since AMericans and foreigners continue to park so much of their aggregate net worth in the hyper-maniacal stock market, then this reality mitigates the amount of per capita consumption on the part of Americans. So, by keeping the stock market vertical, the government keeps the inflation in the stock market, rather than unleashing it upon the street. So long as American/foreign investors do NOT cash out, then inflation remains relatively low ( Especially threatening to America's future inflation rate are the huge numbers of Dollars held by foreigners, each Dollar representing a claim on US assets equal in value to those claims held by Americans ) . In any case, without an inflation threat, gold languishes.

5 ) Anti-Gold Establishment/Media War -- with every crisis that arises in the world, the American Big Media bombards the print and airwaves with spates of articles announcing future sales of gold and depictions of gold's imminent worthlessness...and also, of course, why BONDS are the only conceivable flight to safety. It is a form of constant brainwashing...and it is based on Skinnerian/Pavlovian theories...and IT works effectively upon the masses. However, remember one important thing....whenever a shrewd fellow is trying to get something from you, he usually tries ( quite desperately ) to convince you of its worthlessness so that you will part with it and at a cheap price. That's how 5% of the population manages to end up with 95% of the wealth in a capitalist system. So, as long as fellows like Warren Buffett, the Bronfmans, the Soroses, Rothschilds, etc. continue to hold/accumulate PM's, then I for one do not intend to dump my stash. Nor do I wish to part with my stash and make it easier for the J.P. Morgans, LTCM's, and other short sellers of gold to cover their huge positions.

Spock, for all the above reasons ( and many more ) , the DOLLAR maintains its faith with investors around the world. Americans and foreigners continue to believe in America as the land of neverending Paradise in the world. Until events manifest that undermine the perception of the American Dollar as the new gold equivalent, then the Buck rules.

The only way faith in the American Buck will be shattered is when truly negative events manifest in a notable way here in America ( e.g., commodity shortages, government services breakdown, etc. ) . Until they are right under the nose of Americans in such a manner that they cannot be denied, then the US Dollar ( the FALSE gold ) is It. And the Real Gold is NOT.

But SHOULD the US experience any facsimilie of the types of havoc going on in other lands all over the world, then the US Buck will be abandoned like a syphilitic whore on a Saturday night...as will bonds and stocks denominated in US BUCKS. At that point, total global currency turmoil will break out...and that will leave precious metals as stores of value UNTIL such time as a new, non-dysfunctional, viable ( hopefully logical ) world currency system is reconstructed from the ashes of the old...hopefully one that benefits the ENTIRE WORLD, not merely America.

I have arrived at the foregoing conclusions after a long, hard, costly education...like yourself, I used to believe that the OLD rules of the PM markets still applied. As such, I committed many errors of analysis over the past several years ( So, REALISTIC, old boy, discard ALL my former posts since MOST were based on faulty perceptions...THIS post here defines my current philosophy on today's PM markets ) .

It is never too late to learn, my Vulcan friend.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100h.htm
( this topic is NEVER off topic; I just wonder how long before
it is sold as a perfume )

Appreciate that Gary North link, that was funny. After reading that and hearing about Mr. North once or twice, however, I sort of feel sorry for the guy in a weird way. True, he's making paranoid crazy ravings about the end of civilization and all that, and certainly peace and tranquillity are what we want, but you have to admit he does speak to emotions well, I mean, he is a good writer. Warning ladies, I'm about to be sexist. I've always felt that men, somewhere back in their heart and mind, want bad things to happen from time to time, I don't know why that is. I guess every man has this childhood vision of being needed, of being prepared during an emergency, of having his blood race in the face of a big challenge. Guys are just stupid like that I guess. Something deep inside every man, no matter how tame they appear on the outside, seems to beg to be on the back of a racing bike leaning down into the curve with white lines flashing by his head. Something about a man makes him interested in weapons, something drives him to be competitive, wants him to overcome something that can't be accomplished, makes him seek success, makes him shoot for a goal that is larger than what the other guy did. Something about men just begs for the chance to pull off an amazing move at the last minute, or be smart enough to see it coming and to have been prepared for it. Somewhere in every man's heart he's hovering over his wife and his children with a sawed off shotgun defending them from the angry barbarians that have set their sights on destruction and pillage, and somewhere down in every man's heart there is a desire to be the barbarian, wishing he was out roaming the abandoned concrete jungle in search of his next kill, or wishing he was strapped into a parachute diving out the side door of an airplane. I don't know why, we're just silly I guess. Reading some of the y2k stuff makes me feel like there are a lot of men out there who would really enjoy seeing the world go to hell, a test of their skill, of their character, a return to basics, a chance to rebuild from scratch. Somewhere along the line men just seem to tire of civilization, maybe civilization just involves too many rules, maybe men just like to be in control of their own destiny. Maybe men just want the chance to be a hero. It leaves me feeling almost sorry for Mr. North for some reason. I guess it's because he's suspicious of the world and tries to explain things with his emotions instead of his mind, maybe because his views are just so extreme that you know he's going to look silly when the world doesn't work out his way. I guess it's really because somewhere along the way it seems he's stopped doing analysis of what's really there, and started preaching about what he would like things to be, and what he wants things to be doesn't seem to be a very nice thing. His writings are scary, because he speaks to the darker side of a man's heart, he speaks to the capacity every man has for destruction and chaos, instead of speaking to our vision of better things, of hope, and creative pursuits. In the words of Buckaroo Bonzai, "Wherever you go, there you are".

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

I'm not looking for help from lions, they obviously require servitude many are unwilling to submit too. Submission is the root of your answer, I don't see that as an option. Most people give lip service to religons ie I don't see many one-eyed Cristians, maybe they are all pure minded tho?

I"m think a small black fly is steering the course ( GOD ) but he is too timid to announce himself for fear of getting swated. He don't fit good in the pocket either. In any event the slightest study of history indicates we would be well advised to work on our own solutions, solutions which free us up to invest ourselves safely and freely as WE wish.

Maybe if you suck up to power, in your mind or for real, you create more problems than you solve. Cops and Army all mean trouble for guys like me, I can take care of myself here and......there.

This was posted on another Gold Site .... I believe others are starting to see the real problem and are asking for help. This request should be taken seriously.

( Atahualpa ) Jan 14, 17:22

One of Latin America's problems is the high level of dollarization of its economies. Almost all our reserves are in US$. To be honest, I have no idea how much gold there is as reserves. Let's say I am pretty close to a newly appointed economic advisor to a South American Minister of Economy. How should I approach him with the idea to increase the gold reserves, being a country that is continually boosting production and giving it away to the rest of the world at rock bottom prices ? Would this benefit the economy ? How ? Any ideas anyone ? This is serious.

Ahhhhh, that paper tiger!
If it weren't for trees, we would then be all broke?
Hold that tiger.....Hold that tiger.

Go SOMETHING!

"You set a record tonight for posts....all seemingly desperate pleas directed toward Kitcoites,
the thesis being that gold investment is an exercise in futility."

*************************************************************************

You've got it wrong again. I never said gold investing was an exercise in futility. I said that you should invest in gold as a commodity, not a monetary tool. The evidence bears out my thesis. If you had invested in gold at the start of the Asia crisis thinking that the turmoil would drive the POG up, you would have lost a sh*t load of money. It has fallen precipitously. Don't put words in my mouth.

*************************************************************************

"I don't quite understand you. If you are truly a Gold Long, then why do you so eagerly press
the gold short thesis? What basis of Vulcan logic compels you to shoot yourself in the foot? "

*************************************************************************

The foundation of logic is to accept evidence without emotional bias. If the evidence tells you that gold investing as a monetary asset is going to lose you money you accept it. You don't keep investing in it as a monetary tool just on FAITH that it will go up. It's a recipe for poverty.

I'm long because I foolishly believed that gold would perform as a safe haven. It has'nt. I haven't lost any money because the falling $A has shielded me from gold's fall. In short I listened to 'goldbugs'. The evidence has shown you to be wrong.

If you want to invest in gold, go for it. But do it as a commodity.

Where ever I go, there I am. Agreed, but try going to a remote place and living on an animal level thru all sorts of experiences. Then take a float plane out, then to a jet, then to a metropolitan city all in one day. You find the guy you are is very different from the guy you remember. I find a much enlarged subjective "headspace". Many more options, thoughts I never would have had without the change.

Fantasy directs our lives, gives us scripts to follow and we do. Only time you can really figure it out is after it's over, like religous idealism, or idealism of any kind for that matter.

How about we start our own "currency", the woro. A 5 gm gold piece. We can do it without permission using GOLD as our authority. I'd like to call it an ohm ( Aum ) , symbol w with a o on top?

When next can we do battle? At least neither bird crashed and burned ( again? ) .

Awaiting the challenge...when your strength returns, which, I suspect should be right soon.

FND is the 29th...come and get me kid! : ) : )

Tom

"Since you are a self-professed devoted goldbug"

I am not a goldbug farfel.

I don't BELIEVE in it.

I think a gold standard is silly.

I think Keynes was correct.

I am on the Left side of politics.

I call gold investing as I see it. Not as an act of faith.

I just bought some bullion on the logic that gold was at the time, at a twelve year low. Now its at an 18 year low. Hmmm... good decision.

When a business is no longer solvent it is put into liquidation and the bits sold off whoever aquires the bits ( cents on the dollar ) has a chance.

With countries that have been encouraged to borrow they do not go bust but get yet more money ( to be transfered straight back to the banks who lent them in the 1st place ) so they end up with yet more debt and the cycle goes on. ie the IMF gets more power.

"They" are not likely to do it ,but the best thing would be to burst the balloon ,ie not pay any interest ( a la Russe ) having made the decision "they" would be hero's ( with some at least ) and could trade/barter with their neighbors. ie stand up to the Bully.

Benefits: they could run their country ( difficult without credit but barter will work and they will in future think before "spending "future earnings" )

Guess there would be a problem though with whoever pulls the "ministers" strings try to visualise the whole of south America telling the IMF to get screwed.

Go er whatever takes your fancy

cpo
PS I hope you can rersuade them # there are far too many bullies around.

just think, now you don't have to worry about talking to them for
60 minutes while waiting for the rx to kick in.....

Spock said..

You've got it wrong again. I never said gold investing was an exercise in futility. I said that you should invest in gold as a commodity, not a monetary tool. The evidence bears out my thesis. If you had invested in gold at the start of the Asia crisis thinking that the turmoil would drive the POG up, you would have lost a sh*t load of money. It has fallen precipitously. Don't put words in my mouth.
----------------------

Farfel says...

Spock, if I am to invest in gold as a COMMODITY ONLY, then I MUST accept the gold short thesis that says, as a commodity, gold is NOT worth much more than 10 times the value of silver or around $50 an ounce. That is its purported commodity equilibrium value. So, the only way I can make money on gold then is to short it into the ground, right? Didn't you tell me you are NOT short gold?

-----------------------------------
Spock Says....

The foundation of logic is to accept evidence without emotional bias. If the evidence tells you that gold investing as a monetary asset is going to lose you money you accept it. You don't keep investing in it as a monetary tool just on FAITH that it will go up. It's a recipe for poverty.

-------------------

Farfel says....

Spock, I don't quite understand this strand of Vulcan logic. You tell me not to invest in gold on the LONG side since it is merely an exercise in FAITH. Yet, the corollary of this logic is that I really should NOT invest in the American Dollar ( a mere piece of paper backed only by the good FAITH of the US government ) and stocks and bonds ( ownership interests in corporations and governments backed, once again, only by the good FAITH of the issuers ) . Ultimately, isn't the surplus value of any item created by a mass preponderance of GOOD FAITH in the value of said item? IF so, then I think I will stick to gold, given the spate of international troubles seemingly descending upon these tranquil American shores.
----------------------------------

Spock says....

I'm long because I foolishly believed that gold would perform as a safe haven. It has'nt. I haven't lost any money because the falling $A has shielded me from gold's fall. In short I listened to 'goldbugs'. The evidence has shown you to be wrong.

----------------------------------

Farfel Says....

Well, Spock, the goldbugs have been wrong to date and over this past decade, it would have been difficult to make notable profits as a goldbug. However, the goldbugs' rationale is still worthy and defensible and unfortunately, if you believe that gold only has mere commodity value, then you MUST short the stuff immediately because it is well over-priced at these levels. On the other hand, if you see any rationale to the concept that it is the DOLLAR that is in egregious surplus today, then you best keep your gold long position. Even more compelling, with the huge gold short position held by major Wall Street institutions and hedge funds, then all that gold you are storing in your pantry is a much desired item since the shorts must cover with REAL PHYSICAL GOLD someday...and the statistics suggest that there isn't much of it available on the free market ( outside of the Central Bank vaults ) .
----------------------------------------
Spock says....

If you want to invest in gold, go for it. But do it as a commodity.

--------------------------

Farfel says...

Thank you, Spock, for granting me permission to continue in my errant ways. Call me deluded...but I will continue my LONG gold investments, NOT simply as a commodity, but also as a means of wealth preservation and augmentation owing to gold's potential role as an interstitial currency during troubled times that may visit American shores.

Oh, there's one other reason too....I want to be holding gold LONG the day that JP MORGAN is in a desperate frenzy to cover its short. Now THAT will be one satisfying day!

Live Long and Flourish ( synonym for "Prosper" ) .

Thanks.

F*

I have a source for Canadian silver dollars. They are over .6 oz of Ag.
The price for 200+ Qty is 3.50 USD each, which is .40 over the silver content. The dates are early 1960's, and the condition is Uncirculated.
Ron Paul Coins 1-800-982-7070. till 7:30 EST.
I don't know whether this is a good price, but it is a lot lower premium than US dollars.

Good question, no easy awnser. How about feeding the gold into the general circulation in the form of 5 gm coins. The gov gets the benefit and the population has posession. De Facto gold standard. Drawbacks are short-term reduction of flexibility ( chances to cheat ) , but the up-side is stability and that could be the greatest desiratum of all right around the corner.
That country might attract capital investment easily, a big plus.

JP MORGAN GOING TO $29 heavily laden with GOLD SHORTS?
( JOE ) Jan 14, 18:04

From a reliable web source, it has been reported that J.P Morgan was one of the biggest banks exposed to derivatives and heavy gold shorts - which is also among the positions their hedgefund clients hold.

Persistent rumours assert JP Morgan et al are STILL short a substantial amount of gold - which explains their less than objective opinion of gold prospects in 1999.

Apparently the 'market' believes this - as JP Morgan tumbled nearly $5 today to 102 - although it saw a low of 99 and change. Someone at this forum predicted the stock might finally bottom around 29. Well, its got a good start. And when the gold bull kicks in, JPM might do a freefall to 29.

So much for the once revered name of MORGAN. I will bet old JP is rolling over in his grave... shouting "sheeeez!"

Vronsky gave him a little bit. There are some good articles on real capital formation benefits of gold backed currency at FAME. Since they produce gold as part of the economy, maybe a WPA type program for the mining industry to restock gold supplies would help their economy recover while at the same time producing some restocking of the national treasuries reserves. This would be better than giving the stuff away in an already depressed gold market. In this way the devaluation of the currency would race against the strengthening aspects of increased reserves. Maybe this one is for ARAGORN III to shed light on. Turning on the bat signal. ARAGORN, or ANOTHER, USAGOLD might do this some justice.....and from the master himself

http://www.fame.org/research/library/AG-001.frame.htm

and the road to plenty....

http://www.fame.org/research/library/hsk-003g.frame.htm

and real capital formation....

http://www.fame.org/research/library/kr-001.frame.htm

So fine; short it. If that what it takes to make money go for it.

It appears that this argument has run its course. All I have to say is, if I'm so wrong, why is the POG continuing to fall?

Live Long and Prosper.

Orca: I will add a brief two cents to your dillemma. I know that Allen Greenspan alluded to the value of going to a gold standard in some of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and his presentations to that conservative society that has the Thomas Jefferson image as their logo -- the Cato Society. On mone of his sessions, he wistfully alluded to the golden years of the 1800's when so many nations were on a true gold standard.
It goes something like this -- they need a stable reserve currency that will not increase or decrease in value due to the idiocy of the fiat currency people who manipulate the US dollar or the EURO. Strangely enough, gold is being used behind the scenes as a currency right now as a proxy for the desires of the Central Banks. Gold would not be going down right now if it were not important ( actually what really is happening is that the CB actions with gold are propping up the fiat currencies ) .
What I am referring to is not something that would harm modern financial affairs -- M1, M2, M3 etc. would still exist. Only the monetary base would be strictly exchangeable in gold, a la the BIS. So modern banking practices would still be possible -- within reason. The tricky part ( over my head ) is how to set up rules so that the temptations of creating yet another fiat currency at a later time would not override common financial sense.
Just imagine how popular a country could become if even a portion of its money supply was firmly backed by gold! If a 'consitution' was set up to set up reasonable ground rules of how credit is created, and how the money supply can be expanded, this country would stand head and shoulders over its neighbors, and would attract much more business than it neighbors where their currencies keep floating into oblivion. Some faster than others.
An economist could probably be able to take a copy of the book I have, and figure out how to write that 'constitution' to minimize the eventual corruption of the currency. Hope this helps -- must go home -- real boss is asking where I am.

Remind me later to post to name of a book of which a great deal is about how a modern financial system can go back to a strict gold standard.

My thoughts are that the basic problem in Brazil doesn't have anything to do with the currency and using gold as a reserve isn't going to help. Brazil can value and/or devalue it's currency all it wants, but that's not helping the fundamental problem they're having right now. The problem they're having is that the world no longer wants what they're selling, that is, the world is slowing down and demand has dropped on commodities, etc, that Brazil exports. That combined with the fact that other countries have devalued their own currencies put Brazil into the situation where it was importing entirely too much stuff, and exporting not enough, an account deficit. Brazil has devalued to get rid of the trade imbalance. What Brazil needs is the same thing the rest of the world needs, more demand for goods and services. You can almost think about it like this: Whatever industries are having problems in Brazil, those industries are now making things the world doesn't need. That's not to say oil has become useless, but the amount of oil that is being drilled in Brazil IS useless, it's too much. The best thing the Brazilian folks can do, unless they think the world economy is going to turn around on a dime, is to start doing anything they can to put people to work doing something productive. Drilling oil is no longer productive work, it's busy work. The more idle the hands, the more problems Brazil will have down the line, because people don't like to sit still doing nothing, it saps their spirit. Busy work is the same as doing nothing. Raising hogs the world won't eat is the same as doing nothing. Drilling oil the world isn't going to burn is the same as doing nothing. Many countries in the past have put their people to work preparing and/or fighting wars, but I think it's a bad idea. But if you do nothing, if demand continues to drop and more people become idle, watch out, these are the makings of revolution and social unrest. Bottom line, imagine and future and get your people involved in building it.

Spock said...

So fine; short it. If that what it takes to make money go for it. It appears that this argument has run its course. All I have to say is, if I'm so wrong, why is the POG continuing to fall?

Live Long and Prosper.

--------------------------

Farfel says....

Spock, my Vulcan friend, we are living in very illogical times. Illogical US President. Illogical US stock market. Etc.

You ask me why the price of gold continues to fall?

I answer by asking you....

Why have the prices of Yahoo, Amazon, EBAY, etc. soared through the roof this past year...despite the absence of solid evidence that they will ever even a tiny fraction of estimated future earnings?

How can a company with $20 million of revenue and NO profits be worth around $20 billion?

You know the answer....

Mass hysteria, the ( hopefully temporary ) victory of the Illogical.

So, I will stay rooted upon the side of our old friend, Logic, while unfortunately, I fear you join the great, unwashed crowd of crazies IMHO.

Thanks.

Live Long and Blossom ( synonym for "Prosper" )

THanks.

F*

Jeil's recent chart shows both parts of a double bottom forming around January 20 and 25, and a nice increase right after that. I have some measure of faith in Jeil's charts because he uses all sorts of historical data.
------------------
Quick,,, name yet-the-latest poster whose energy is being sucked dry.

Orca -- It's not the gold, but gold can be a mighty anchor. It's the debt-based currency systems we all live under. I.E., can't spend a buck unless it has first been loaned into existence by a 'banker', and at usury, regardless of the amount of usury. When will nations learn that they DON'T NEED no damn bank lending money, when the nation, in its sovereign right, may print their currency with no strings attaCHED! The question then will be as to how 'just' they will be in doing so. Thus, making it all 100% backed/exchangable with the tangibleness of the metals is more than generally warranted. But unless the nation gets its hock out of water by stopping the insanity of borrowing ANYTHING from 'bankers', NOTHING will change!!!

It is a compelling case against the president. The only defense that could be made is to repeat the absurd and twisted arguments the House has exposed so well. How does that saying go..? That won't play in Peoria.

Oh yeah. 5.05 spot silver. Looks like it will hold.

Go Golf

I like the constitutional stuff to keep politicians amongst the honest working people. Further, the idea of refusal to pay and outright default, ( telling the IMF to get F'd ) reverting to an internally driven economy. Focusing on the needs within the country would send the IMF fronted bullys a good message. Hell at the same time they could just start selling dollars en-masse for gold or other needed goods; devalue their own currency from financing internal stimulus packages and internal consumption. Refusal to trade with the US would make US prices rise, and thier internal prices easier to afford for consumption an raise thier standard of living. Keynesian with a gold twist from internal commodity production.

What happened to you, man? You used to be so pro gold. Now it seems as if you can't say enough bad things about it. Buck up little camper and return to the faith. I would love to read one of you long winded "gold's place in the world" posts. While we don't always agree, I always get a hoot out of your writing. Please say that you are only playing devil's advocateyes?

Raul. Duke of huh?

it's like anything else we the "consumers" buy. Gold's in a deflationary slump ( spiral to some ) , The big fear of deflation is the opposite of inflation. With inflation, we buy it today because, due to past experiences ( we got hurt ) , we know it's going up tomorrow. With deflation, we learn that the stuff we bought yesterday, is cheaper today ( we feel the pain ) . So we wait, and wait...,and get use to waiting. This is what all the politicos and CB's are scared sh*t about. Just watch Japan, their in the early stages of that "terrible" thing called a deflationary spiral!! To Joe Six, gold is nothing special. Probably on the bottom of his shopping list. Eventually He'll buy, get burned, and wait...., and wait..., if he thinks he needs it. I know Kitcoites know all this stuff, but........have a good evening!

Envy -- Credit can ever go just so far without at least credit standards being lowered or beyond that, pure and simple debt forgiveness as debt MUST under a debt-based system increase or the system fails. Simple as that. Under the system, people simply have to run faster and faster in the rat maze just to keep their heads above water. Soon, that is not anymore possible. Thus, systems and economies crash and burn. And where was the governments in all of this? They were there spoon feeding the bankers! I think that ANY government that has done this is criminal! Governments should be held responsible for NOT supplying THEIR people with a sovereign method of payment. The peoples method of payment should not inherently be based upon debt, or the 'full faith and credit of....'! If their is too much supply of goods, then I would say that the people are not being adequately compensated for their labors whereby they cannot adequately participate in the economy AND they are also paying too much of someones loans to BANKERS!

Why OEX and not SPX puts?

Is expressed on this site. I too admire his market calls, and his simple approach. I also share some kinship with APH, having been a commodities broker in ANOTHER life. I still remember APH's post a couple months ago when he told of his anguish at making calls to his customers to tell them all their money is gone. My respect for him rose that day.

But people should remember that APH's strategy is a high risk approach to the market. Note how he never makes his market calls without detailing the stops in place. This is vital. Also, it seems as if APH has access to the markets on a 24 hour basis. This is a full time job, and hard to do if you already have one of those. It also seems as if he is trading strictly by technicals. I could be wrong on this, but I have followed his trades and can see exactly on the charts where he in developing his strategy. I would be very interested if APH would explain some of his methodology in his market calls. He never seems given to long or extra words, but I would be very interested to learn the process by which he makes his successful calls.

APH has been very good at calling some market moves. He has also been very wrong. The important thing to realize is how he accepts a bad trade for what it is, and dumps it when it turns bad. This is the only way to speculate in this market. Leave the emotion at home. Traders like APH, Glen, RJ, Oldman, and some others, have shown us that the most successful way to trade is to do it without the emotion. Who cares if you love gold? Investing in gold has nothing to do with love.

This is not meant to take away anything from APH or the others listed above. They are the best prognosticators of these markets I have ever seen, but is meant to help people recognize that this type of trading is risky and best done by those who can watch and access the markets all day long.

I traded a fair amount of gold and silver in my time. Never traded platinum in those days because there was no market for it. I tended to specialize in currencies and oil. You think the gold market makes no sense at times? Try oil in the Seventies. Anyway, just MHO.

Orca -- Ask the person this: Would you rather have your 'reserves' based upon the 'full faith and credit of the US', which is by far the biggest/largest debtor nation in the world and which relies upon exports to countries like yours for exports AND for the purchase of the US debt, for the percieved value of the dollar to stay afloat, or go to tangibility in the form of metals. 'Nuff said!

upon further investigation of the word abcess ( abscess ) , I must state that I spelled the word incorrectly. Therefore, I respectfully must decline the stated award. However, if Nick@C or Tol1 has an idea concerning this situation, I defer to them. I do look forward to another GOLDEN opportunity. TIA Fair and Square Bruce

I see what you're saying, but Brazil could stick with debt based fiat, use gold backed currency, issue gold and silver coins, or use pieces of a meteor that fell from the heavens and it wouldn't change the fact that she has too many people drilling oil. The world just doesn't need it, those people need to be doing something else. If the industry is left to it's own devices it will eventually let those people go, they'll hit the unemployment line, the government will fiddle around for a few years, and eventually demand will either pick up or those people will start doing something else. Why not put them to work doing something before they even hit the unemployment line, every town needs a new monument, museum, or maybe an intra-country fiber optics network. If you're going to print money anyway, might as well spend it into the economy.

Is very speedy tonight? Did Bart do something?

Is it fast for you too?

Raul Duke -- Fundamentals can be in place for a DAMN long time before a market moves. That's why technical-based traders are in and out of the market at maybe a moments notice. Hey, it's pretty cheap to change sides, and much more financially healthy and GRATIFYING!!! GO APH!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990114/ew.html

Envy -- Ah! Another WPA scene! Swell! How about if there is too much of something, that people simply find something else to do with their idle fingers. I don't NEED no stinkin' 'managed' economy. Do you? Do they? Is that what we started out with here? Is that what we need here any more than they need there? But GET the system off of a debt-based system and then see how it can simply explode in the things it can do!!! The supply/demand curve has a LOT to do with wages and debt. With debt, add the credit-wothiness equation. Take the latter and diminish it a bit and suddenly the indebted have no where to 'buy' more credit, and voila, all of sudden bancruptcy looms! 'Dollars' flow out. Hell, 'Rubins' fly out! HAR! What a concept for an economic system. Just based upon maybe ONE jerk somewhere in the system ( at either end! ) ! A debt-based monetary system will do what it was always ment to: Transfer the wealth of the nation/people to someone else. Amazing, ain't it....

Everyday I drive the same route and see the same behaviour...
With many others I sit for three minutes waitng for the green left turn arrow for our two lanes. The light finally comes and everyone throttles it through the turn. We now have four lanes of previously emptied traffic and they put the pedal to the metal. Geronimo! Aware of the irritatingly timed light at the next intersection, I hang back and watch them weave. Lanes are changed recklessly and lives are risked in this mindless dash to get ahead of the next person. Slowly, I join the group as the sit a cloud of exhaust at that next light. What was the point of all that risk and wasted gasoline? Very simple, the other guy was doing it.

Rhenquist? Wrenkissed? has to stand to ease his back pain?

He also has this lip licking thing going on, Is this guy thirsty? Just HOW thirsty is he? I want to know. I need to know.

To Eldorado: Damn fundamentals indeed! They bite like fleas, and make me itch.

Kitkat -- Generally, I find a goodly part of the problem to be caused by the 'pavement wasters'. You probably know of 'em: The type that seem to require a quarter mile of pavement in front of them to the next car; The ones who dawdle at the stop light when it finally turns green; The ones out there that do ANYTHING but drive while behind the wheel! Perhaps you might answer the question: ' Why are they out there in the first damn place'????????? It doesn't seem to be that they have a place to go or a time to get there.....................

now and future Goldbugs a must read at the cafe metropole:
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/scripts/forum.cfm?cfid=92574&cftoken=14860&forumid=10
Duke, I like your style,
Preacher, where are you?
JP.......hellooooooooo
Cyclist........missing you too
and of course APH , more, more
merci
l_b

Raul Duke -- "Damn fundamentals indeed! They bite like fleas, and make me itch. ". Yupper! They DO tend to do that! However, they DO tend to at LEAST make one to be at least 'interested'! The time then comes at hand and YOU are then cognizant! Awareness is where it's at.

Date: Thu Jan 14 1999 20:05
Raul Duke ( A lot of praise for APH ) ID#22852:

I would add one more GREAT poster and that is D.A.! I say!

Raul Duke -- Fundamental type of traders are like those who simply look through a wide angle scope a see something to shoot at. Those who are more 'technically' minded watch for the target to be at the cross hairs. That should provide a bit of an analogy. Be a 'rifle man'....

Atahualpa: First Peru must put a fair ( their own ) value on what an ounce of gold is worth. This means that Peru ignores whatever the US FED, the European CB, the IMF or the BIS says what their gold is worth.
Next your Central Bank pays all gold mining companies ( Peruvian and foreign ) in gold convertible Peruivian currency. Initially, this gold stays with your CB until Peru has enough to issue a gold coin. This gold should by law never be allowed to leave Peru except by 75% vote in referendum.
The foreign mining companies to repatriate the new convertible currency must buy foreign exchange reserves at your central bank. How much the foreign miners get will be a problem that your central bank will have to lend its support to. The bye-word may well be; Is Peruvian Gold worth more than International Fiat?
If fair value is not given internationally it would still allow for this money to be invested in Peru.
Another way of looking at it, if the foreign miners invest their gold convertible currency in Peruvian industry, the Peruvian gold producers will have little alternative. Thiscan only help Peru in the long run. Also, this gold convertible currency will go into Peruvian circulation, at the outset it will be illegal to use outside of Peru, in time may be allowed for transactions with neighbooring countries who are friendly to Peruvian aims.
As the Peruvian gold reserve builds up, the minting of gold coin for general circulation will have to take place.
Since at present, all international trade is conducted in fiat currencies, Peru would be justified in using its present -non convertible currency- and its foreign reserves for trade. Barter will always be available between neighbooring countries who have good relations and who see this as a struggle for sovereignty.
Atahualpa, I hope that just some of the above ideas are good, if so please think about them.

Indeed, neither has yet crashed and burned. In fact, it appears the Falcon has a bit more flying to do than I had thought he would.

It will soon enough be very apparant that the Phoenix was born the Christmas of '98, but we need more time on the charts yet to be able to point to where the new trend began.

For a while yet we experience the snake of volatility. Remember the time of the first wall?

I agree with what you're saying, but neither your vision of Brazil or mine was requested. Orca was asking what should be done on behalf of someone who apparently works with the head of Economics in Brazil, and I doubt very much that their view of a healthy Brazil is shared by either of us. From the governments point of view, I doubt they want a bunch of idle people running around the country unemployed. One of a government's goals is to continue being the government, to maintain it's own power.

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/zgold.gif

Being facetious of course, I'm happy to see those who value their paper so much posting here and exhorting the paper. HAR! Go ahead! Make the day that much brighter when it shall be seen for what it is ( when it flames, no doubt ) ! I can not understand how you can think that THAT day will not arive. Perhaps you all might explain your rational of the perpetual increasing indebtedness of all. But then again, perhaps you can't!!! You have a challenge to answer this!

their paper money to physical gold on demand. That way the bankers and governments would always have masters-the people.

Spock & Farful...............I was gonna try to write something clever to tell youse idjits to knock it off but decided not to. I will say one thing though............ ( besides YAWN ) .......

"SHUT THE FECK UP!!!!"


"SHEEEEEEESH!!!?!#!!" ( I'd rather read SPud going off on the PPT ;- ) )
that was two things... ( sorry )

away...to where the heart is...
oundforhome


go golf


Irvine Boy - I'll call ya maana...

Reify: Yes! D.A.! I knew there were some I left out. Maybe because he has been gone for so long. He only just returned a few days ago.

Eldorado: The analogy is a good one. There is a third type of trader though, the guy with the scatter gun. They toss up limits and puts and calls like clay pigeons. If the stops are tight and the outlook is sound, this can be a fun and profitable way to go. Make the losers cheap and the winners dear.
About the trial: We will now see Clinton's numbers fall. Who could look at those video tapes and not see a liar? Almost anything could happen now.

lady bug: first time its been called that..thanks

when you have been in a contest or battle for much longer than you would have thought to be physically possible, often the moment to put your adversary away becomes blurred between your original goal and the pressing need to survive. We are in that time now, and must stand back a moment and realize that the odds are now greatly in our favour to win. Gold will not go to 200 dollars and put all of the mines out of business because of deflation! Paper money is becoming worth less each day in ever increasing amounts. The other side realizes this and indeed they are the largest buyers of physical gold I would guess.They toy with the situation so that they can accumulate more and more off the backs of the peoples woes and hard times. Now is the time to go forward by taking ownership of gold which is the only way to cause reality to the inevitable situation. After all, there is really only so much of the stuff. But we have all become afraid and that is what they want and if you don't watch out they will push you back further and history clearly tells a story that you will then sell to them cheaply. Take your paper money and buy physical gold in a united way. Put a spear deep into their black hearts . If you truly came to win, the time is now. Each of you must look into yourselves and act accordingly. they are fierce and when the opportunity is there , you must act! By my word I will.

Envy -- Under a debt-based system, they shall get the un-employed anyway. Can't be otherwise! They are totally damned under a debt-based system or temporarily damned while they put a 'fine' fix in. But, damned they be, and it is up to them which way they go! One generally has to pay for their crime and a nation is at risk in that regard! Their route must be to FIX it proper, and to eliminate the possible re-introduction of the 'virus' to the best of their ability. It is NO ONE elses problem but THAT sovereign governments and that peoples to solve. If that government cannot see the forest for the trees, perhaps the people should absolve/desolve it and constitute one that can!!!

Cressy -- The times are one of competive devaluations, with paper gains to be made along the way. Competitve devaluations non-the-less. The value of savings go with what they can buy. But for the currencies, they can can still buy each other for plus/minus a percentage, even as they all really devalued, round-robin against each other. Might be 30% or so for the more 'valuable' ones. HAR! Stability aren't US! It's a speculative world VS. one based upon reality. So be it. Even tulips bloom for a few days! The physical commodity scene is a shambles because of the so-called indebtedness of whole nations and peoples and because reality doesn't seem to be inherent in anything anymore. Probably a good sign of the 29's.....

Your strength has taken a bit longer to return than anticipated. I feel you grow stronger now each passing hour.

Good fortune may well be smiling upon you. I am begining to feel a bit of the ( asian-russian-south american ) contagious flu. This may weaken me substantially, especially if a new strain appears....the american-europe flu...this one is deadly to all paper based life forms until a true rebirth.

PMSP

Tom

First let me repeat what i've said here before, I hate options! But the volatility has become so great one is forced to use them. I do the oex because the open interest and volume is far greater then the spx. As a result I only get ripped for a 1/4 point instead of a full point. I am trying something new in reguards to options. I'm trying to detect volume surges in individual stocks that may lead to carry though to higher prices. Once i find a stock, I want to pick it up near a strike price that is priced under a 1/2 and in the week before expiration. I bought 30 of the TKLC Jan 20 calls for 3/8 on Monday, it looked like it would run if it gets over 20. I was stopped out of my 610 calls at about break even, if the S&P can hold above yesterdays lows I'll give it another try tomorrow.

Gold, as commercials are "supposedly" still accumulating Gold at these lower levels...
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/

You said something about paper currency getting weaker and weaker every day, but that's not happening ! Today you can buy more with your paper currency than you've been able to buy in years. The dollar today buys you more gold, steel, hogs, cows, etc, than it's bought in a long time, that's why they keep saying things like "28 year lows" and such.

I'll have to break off the discussion and submit *grin*, it's gotten too complicated for me. To me it's real simple, demand has fallen. Brazil wouldn't be having any problems right now if oil was 30 bucks a barrel.

So, what do competive devaluations mean? It means that first, this group of nations shall devalue, then the second group shal have to devalue, and then the third group shall have to devalue. As I've said, credit for more debt can/shall only go so far. Peoples become impoverished! So, who is next to be devalued for the sake of 'exports'? I'll let you all answer that yourselves. but a clue, Who's left? What does that mean to commodities as for what we pay for them in our dollar? Probably a lot!

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A big drop in gasoline prices last year shrank U.S. inflation to the lowest level since the 1960s, and Americans responded to the increased purchasing power with a spending spree on autos and other retail goods. With a scant 0.1 percent rise in December, consumer prices rose just 1.6 percent for all of 1998, even less than the 1.7 percent increase in 1997, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the best back-to-back annual inflation performance since 1964-65. Meanwhile, retail sales -- representing a third of the nation's economic output -- surged 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said, an improvement over the 4.3 percent gain in 1997. "Consumers just aren't leaving this party," said economist Bill Cheney of John Hancock. "Buoyed by a strong job market, rising wages, low interest rates, almost nonexistent inflation, a soaring stock market ... they aren't even getting tired." Retailers got an added boost in December, when sales jumped 0.9 percent -- 2.5 percent for autos and 0.4 percent for everything else. For the year, auto sales increased 5.7 percent, despite strikes that halted General Motors' production in June and July. Auto companies sold 15.6 million cars and light trucks last year, the most in 12 years. The increase in Americans' appetite for consumption came at an opportune time, offsetting weaker export sales and factory production, the result of slumping demand in Asia and elsewhere around the world. Many economists are looking for the weakness to spread to the rest of the U.S. economy this year, slowing the growth in consumer spending for both services and retail goods.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0z.htm
--
The good news is that "inflation" will probably get a whole lot lower.

http://www.theage.com.au/daily/990114/bus/bus13.html

YAHOOO - we have a sale.
Foot loose and fancy free
No debt and no worries.

Why do you hate options?

xchanger: re your post of Jan 13 1999 22:29
Investment in gold, or anything else, had best exclude your "hard core nostalgic" beliefs! Trading is speculation, the portion of your money you take high risks with. Your statement, "In the current climate, it could be even noticed that nobody speculates [sic] on any future potential in the price of the metal anymore." Is obviously contrary to fact. To mention only one, gold mines , as any business does, make decisions all the time how to hedge ( or not ) their future production.
May I suggest one source of research on investing in gold? The American Institute for Economic Research of Great Barrington, Massachusetts, has published books and a newsletter for many years. They suggest percentages and kinds of gold investment appropriate for individuals according to age and total worth.

Envy -- Let's See now: Retail sales rise 5.1%, Consumer prices up 1.6% for the year, and everyone went into credit card debt that much more. Savings rates at negative numbers. GEE, I wonder where those figures came from! Must be from people buying 'tulips' and 'end of scenario' type of goods!

Is it me, or has anyone noticed that gold is never off more
than a dollar overseas but shortly after Comex opens it gets
slammed. J.P Morgan issued a forecast for $265 gold on Tuesday
( we fell $4.40 that day ) . They had nothing new. The fear of
Central Banks selling, Switzerland dumping and a general gold is
dead theme was their commentary. If I am not mistaken, it has
been reported or speculated that J.P Morgan was one of the
biggest banks exposed to derivatives and heavy gold shorts are
among the positions their hedgefund clients hold. HMmmmm......

Morbius - Trading is difficult enough trying to figure out the price moves with an option you have to figure out the time too. The novice trader is lulled into a false sense of security because their loss is limited. Most options expire worthless and the vast majority of traders never make money buying options. Ask yourself why the floor traders are out right selling options to collect premnium or doing some kind of exotic spread like butterflies. To be a long term successful options player you truely have to be a skilled trader, there are a few on Kitco who qualify I don't neccessarily consider myself one of them.

sharefin -- So if you were a large player in the short market, and had access to the media, how else would you trend the price south when it otherwise had no inclination to do so? BUY IT, The physical, if it can still be had!!! It won't be good for anyone else if the market goes up and there is NONE to be had!!! Shoot, there is hardly squat left of the coins anymore! Everyone is buying and NObody is selling them. More of the same occurring with what is left. Those that are left behind will be those that haven't been planning for the day for a LONG while! They will no longer even find any at cheap prices! A manipulated market, INDEED! This will turn into the upward spike of ALL upward spikes when the last paper nail is pounded and bent!!!

SINGAPORE ( AP ) -- A broker's typing error on a bank stock caused Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index to plunge 5.5 percent at Friday's opening before the trading house discovered its mistake and reported it to the Stock Exchange. A spokeswoman for the Stock Exchange of Singapore would not reveal which broker or company made the error while typing in a transaction on a locally issued share in Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. The spokeswoman, who asked not to be identified by name, said the broker typed in a share price of 30 Singapore cents ( 18 cents ) instead of 7.95 Singapore dollars ( about $4.73 ) . When the computer, detecting a possible problem, asked, "Would you like to continue?" the broker typed, "Yes," said the spokeswoman. "It was forced through. That's how a mistake can occur," she said. Such a drastic change in the share price of one of Singapore's top banks forced the main index to plunge.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn15.htm
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Oops.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Seeking to open home ownership to more Americans, mortgage giant Fannie Mae is offering new options that will make mortgage insurance cheaper for homebuyers who cannot afford large down payments. The new insurance options will save homebuyers who make small down payments $1,100 to $2,250 over the first 10 years of a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, according to Fannie Mae, a congressionally chartered, publicly traded company that buys mortgages from original lenders such as banks. It retains some of the mortgages in its portfolio and packages others into securities for resale to investors.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn13.htm
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Borrow more money, dammit.