Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 00:07 - ID#401460)
P&G New Product

"New Pantene Plus Pro-V Skinnerian Behavioral Conditioners offer a strong, long-lasting psychological hold, for healthier, shinier brains that are more manageable and easier to style and control," Procter & Gamble spokesperson John Dyer told reporters during a press conference at the company's state-of-the-art beauty salon and stimulus-response research facility in Cincinnati. "Our patented system of nutrients, moisturizers and behavioral modifiers gently shapes and conditions your psyche, guiding your behavior with a clearly defined set of rewards and punishments."


(Sun Jan 17 1999 00:13 - ID#343259)
Mountain of Debt
Cobra, to assist with your visualization of the US National Debt, I have prepared a little spreadsheet equating that sum of US debt into common denomonation US coins and bills. Sizes used had been measured by me in the past packed in boxes as they come from the mint, all except the clad Halfs, which was measured by flattening a bag and approximating as best I could. Perhaps these measurements are useful to others, even though it is US Centric. I am trying to upload the spreadsheet, but I don't know if it will work correctly. If it doesn't look for a followon post to get it right.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 00:21 - ID#343259)
Cobra 2nd Try

(Sun Jan 17 1999 00:32 - ID#343259)
Cobra Try #3

(Sun Jan 17 1999 00:47 - ID#39857)
what we eat for food and from the media......
should bring on plenty of suits in the
just gone vegan.....i don't have to worry
sorry if I offended any auricarnivorous folk

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Jan 17 1999 01:16 - ID#428218)
A coconut for the winner.......who could have said this....

``I love her for it, but our country should love her for it as well.''


(Sun Jan 17 1999 01:47 - ID#190411)
Haggis, I'm clueless.
Who did say that?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 01:52 - ID#190411)
Haggis, as a Scots nationlist I'd bet that
it is a red haired beauty with bright blue eyes.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 01:59 - ID#219363)
Your daughter sounds like a smart one. : ) Congratulations on raising her up right, no small thing winning a competition like that at such a young age. Also, thanks for the compliment.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 02:08 - ID#81124)
6pak Re: Milk - it's just the tip of the iceberg.
An important victory for the banning of this BGH hormone, but the battle is on many fronts.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 02:17 - ID#183109)
CompGeek Spreadsheet.

Nice spreadsheet! Any idea how many feet of gold that would be stacked on a football field?


(Sun Jan 17 1999 02:20 - ID#190411)
Envy, you are a gentleman.
There is a reason for this condition, Eh?
I am still contemplating the post that started this. How did you get the way that you are?
That's a rhetorical, and I will be introspective on this non-gold subject.
Carry on for Ol' Virginny, the land of my ancestors.

John Disney
(Sun Jan 17 1999 02:26 - ID#24135)
One Mans Opinion ..
Kitconian observations ..

1. Mike Sheller is right about impeaching Clinton.
2. Mike Sheller is right about markets.
3. Spock cant spell "uber".

beaming up .. who said "die young and leave a
beautiful corpse" ??

(Sun Jan 17 1999 03:20 - ID#257313)
Does anybody have the lease rate volatility vs. gold price volatility charts for the last 5 years?
Gold Hoarding; Physical Investment; Paper Investment; Gold Futures & Options Markets; Over the Counter Markets; Gold Hedging; Forward Selling; Forward Comex Sales; Forward Physical Sales; Gold Options; Floor Price Programs; Gold Loans; does anyone want to try and give the definitions to these terms? and now explain the reason for the low POG?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 04:29 - ID#255284)
It's pubic knowledge.....

I am not as smart as I thought. Somewhere in my mind, I believed I created the term merkin and merkan to describe our American cousins. Like, ya know, I thought I coined the term, originally, I certainly didn't know the word had been used before to describe Americans, neither did I know, till it was pointed out by [apo-loggies have forgotten who] that the word merkin has a dictionary meaning.

It turns out that "merkin" has been used before to describe the merkans, knowingly of its other meaning.....


The word "merkin" is one of the perpetual bad puns of the
Internet. It actually means "pubic wig" ( such wigs are used,
apparently, in the theatrical and film worlds as modesty devices in
nude scenes ) . It can also be a contrivance used by male
cross-dressers designed to imitate the female genitals, or, as Eric
Partridge delicately puts it, "an artificial vagina for lonely men".
The OED dates it 1617 in the sense "pubic wig"; the origin is

Then "merkin" was coined afresh to mean "an American", because it
sounds a bit like the half-swallowed pronunciation of "American" by
some Americans, particularly President Lyndon Johnson; and the fact
that it had a "naughty" meaning didn't hurt. Punning use of the
word dates back to at least the early 1960s. Bill Fisher writes:
"I'd guess multiple re-invention is going on here. When I was
fooling around with the Orange Blossom Playhouse in Orlando, FL,
about 1963, we were amusing ourselves with trying to change a word
here or there in the play 'Teahouse of the August Moon' -- without
really screwing anything up -- and one guy cracked the cast up one
night when instead of the line 'But ... but ... he's an American!'
he said 'But ... but .. he's a Merkin!' ( The cast had been
laughing for a week or two about the definition of 'merkin' that
someone had found in a dictionary. ) "

One of Peter Sellers' roles in Stanley Kubrick's 1964 film _Dr.
Strangelove_ was U.S. President Merkin Muffley. This gets two
risque' locutions past the censor at once, since "muff" is another
slang term for female genitals or pubic hair ( as in "muff-diving"
for cunnilingus ) . This name was presumably the work of Kubrick or
his scriptwriter Terry Southern. The film was based on the 1958
novel _Two Hours to Doom_ ( titled _Red Alert_ in the U.S. ) , by Peter
George, pseudonym of Peter Bryant ( 1924-1966 ) . The novel was
serious -- Bryant had served in the RAF -- and does not name the
presidential character. But when Kubrick filmed it as a satire,
Bryant was so convinced that he then re-novelized the film.

On Usenet, "merkin" is only a few years old. A few people recall ( a newsgroup dedicated to the writings of Terry
Pratchett, a British writer of humorous fantasy ) as the origin, but
Matthew Crosby ( ) writes: "I
believe I was the original person to use 'Merkin' in AFP ( certainly
it was my use of the word that started the large thread on it ) , and
I'm sure that 'Merkin' was being used before that as an underhand
insult. By me, if nothing else."

"Merkin" is now widely used on Usenet to designate Americans
( especially by non-Americans ) .

So,, fellas, the gloves are, wait a minute, the merkins are, wait a minute, you're all merkins again.

yuk yuk

(Sun Jan 17 1999 04:38 - ID#340344)
You are amazing. Simply amazing. No... *thoroughly* amazing.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 05:34 - ID#230376)
"Lead man holla" Harry Belafonte 1955 :"Lead man holla,yooooo ... all men folla ... down you go for the "merkin" dolla." Jamaican "work" song. First heard on honeymoon in Jamaica 1958. Go Gold !

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Jan 17 1999 06:03 - ID#428218)

Belive it or not, it is a commment made by BC concerning his good lady Hillary. Tears in her eyes......

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Jan 17 1999 06:29 - ID#428218)
A listing of Australia resource companies URL's

(Sun Jan 17 1999 07:26 - ID#39857)
look and see and let yourself free.....ommmmmmmmmm
Iraq proposes new world grouping to counter US domination

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has called for the creation of a new world
grouping to counter U-S domination.

In a speech to mark the eighth anniversary of the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein
said the policies of the U-S, Britain and their allies threatened the security and
stability of the world.

Meanwhile more than six thousand people have protested in Baghdad against
Washington plans to remove the cap on Iraqi oil exports.

The U-S has proposed that the ceiling on Iraqi oil sales be lifted but Baghdad
says it will reject any plan which doesn't lead to the immediate abolition of
long-term sanctions.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 07:34 - ID#39857)
look here's a simple piece advice.....check DRUDGE out now..
the alarm bells are ringing.....flashing lights
its out there...its great...its ...oh my.......

(Sun Jan 17 1999 07:44 - ID#411440)
@ africanminer: Yes Kitco has leaserate/POG patterns
back over 10 years at

It is VERY interesting stuff.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 07:49 - ID#40799)
Dr Ross Anderson, a leading millennium bug expert at
Cambridge University's computer security research centre, said:
"Personally, I plan to have food for three months, a working
well, three tons of propane gas and 400 litres of diesel."

(Sun Jan 17 1999 08:22 - ID#26793)
Brazil will suck Argentina, and American banks, into a black hole

(Sun Jan 17 1999 08:34 - ID#26793)
President of Argentina wants the U.S. dollar to replace all local currencies in S. America,1249,30006591,00.html?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 08:45 - ID#26793)
"Mr. Donnelly has a knack for predicting market downturns"

(Sun Jan 17 1999 08:51 - ID#69149)
...It is year-old news...It's "Monica Revisited"...slow news day I guess...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 08:51 - ID#26793)
"Can anyone seriously call this investing? . It's a gigantic parimutual operation"

(Sun Jan 17 1999 09:20 - ID#391172)
I called Mike's argument " legalistic", it is ain't it? I don't know what Molach? is but I don't cast anybody anywhere-so far. Sounds biblical and patriarchal, I'm a daddy but MY children grew up around me and left..average age about 16. Prepared I hope to cop[e with a world like Envy ( thank you for your 15:38 Envy ) describes. My kids have done OK, all healthy, happy non-goldbugs living for today people. My one rant was don't smoke,don't smoke, don't smoke from the time they could understand. They all smoked. 3 of 4 have quit tho.
I dislike Clinton as much as anybody probably, but I dislike this puritanical moralising to a legal beat even less. I do prefer our common barbarian heritage over the Christian thing, that could be a viable direction for us. I was raised Catholic,ugh, awk,yuk..took awihle to get out of that one. I liked Pearl Bucks wish for her children " not to be raise in the shadow of a great religon", makes a lot of sense to me.

"Die young and have a good-looking corpse" is a comment made by one of the characters in " Rebel Without a Cause". He died young, I don't think it helped his looks.

Peace Mike, you haven't lightened up yet. You will see a time when this doesn't seem important at all, probably ina couple of weeks.

By the way, my kids were raised to understand religon as a mental disease, to prepare them to be independent and clear-headed..that worked at least.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 09:29 - ID#224230)
In case this hasn't yet been posted....I love Monday's

Le Metropole members,

The following is a Le Metropole press release which has been sent to the financial media. If you have any contacts with the members of the press, it would be greatly appreciated if you could bring this press release to their attention.

In the next Midas du Metropole, I will be covering some of these issues.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron
Le Metropole>

January 17, 1999

Le Metropole Inc.
1079 Ocean Boulevard
Rye, New Hampshire, 03870

For Immediate Release


Bill Murphy
Le Metropole Inc.
603 433 9389

Peabody, Tice and Murphy Predict Coming Chaos in the Financial Markets

Three of the prominent contributors to have issued commentary, alerting Le Metropole members to severe financial market stress that looms on the very near horizon.

Charles Peabody is one of the most highly regarded banking analysts on Wall Street and is often quoted by Alan Abelson, Editor in Chief of Barrons. Peabody, in his recently posted commentary at the Hemingway Table:

" As for the fundamental themes, I shifted my emphasis earlier last fall when the Fed began to ease in an effort to bail out the capital markets and when the world's government bodies set out to rescue Brazil. As I state back then, significant changes in government policies will create unintended consequences and it is our job as analysts to anticipate when the next sea change will be"..After a brief Fed-induced rally, bank stocks are likely to resume their descent.I see no value in bank stocks and at current levels and expect at least two more years of price weakness and 60% to 80% of will unfold in the form of a CRASH".

David Tice is often seen on CNBC, articulating the bear case. He has a vast array of institutional clients and also is the portfolio manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, which was the number one performing mutual fund in the United States in the third quarter of last year. Tice, in his recently posted commentary at the Dos Passos Table:

"Recent data provide clear evidence that Japan and Asian economies are still in depression, Latin America is quickly sinking into recession and acute financial stress, European ( and particularly emerging East European economies ) economies are slowing rapidly, and the American manufacturing and agricultural sectors are faltering".

"The reality remains that the global crises has made it very close to home just as we have reached the climax of an unprecedented speculative mania and economic bubble. We are in the very early stages of a Latin American crises that will prove much more troubling for the US financial markets and economy than the bulls believe today".

Bill Murphy was written up in the Wall Street Journal in August 1988: "Trader Bill Murphy's Correct Call On Rise in Price of Copper Pays Off". He also thinks we are headed for financial market turmoil and believes that after many years of benign neglect, both the gold and silver markets are poised for dramatic bull market moves.

It is his opinion, the gold market has been controlled by "officialdom and their henchmen" for some time, but that there are very recent signs that times could be changing. In his commentary at the James Joyce Table, Murphy has presented a great deal of anecdotal evidence over a period of time that Goldman Sachs ( Secretary Treasury Rubin's former firm ) , for many reasons, has led a price capping attack on gold along with other New York financial institutions.

The first sign of a change of this environment was the recent break out in silver. Second, is a recent Goldman Sachs foreign exchange department release predicting a " a gold breakout". Third, is a Goldman Sachs conference call calling for a major fall in the dollar. Fourth, is the urging by U.S. officials to the Brazilians to devalue their currency after congratulating the Chinese for not doing so.

To review all this commentary:

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 10:52 - ID#348257)
ne'er do well
you done well anyhow

My friend, you misunderstand me. While I admit I have studied religions and their esoteric components more ways than perhaps even Joe Campbell, and have even participated in some briefly , I am NOT a "religionist." FAAAAAR from it. ( actrually, as an astrologer, many religionists might yearn to see me put to the stake ) . I believe that ALL religions are unfortunate aberrations of a universal Truth. That truth is ONE. Unfortunately, religions foster "the many" and can be intellectually and mentally limiting and politically and socially divisive.

On the other hand, they are somewhat of a "leaven" in a world where very little formal thought is given to any kind of uplifting and spiritualizing philosophy. So the world might be an even more precarious and barbaric place without religions, than with them. Sure - I know that's debatable, but it's a thought.

The way you have raised your kids sounds very much the way we raised our son. He was given the maximum freedom, as long as he obeyed 2 family rules - Stay in school, and don't do anything Self-destructive ( I guess smoking comes under that heading ) . Sure, I'm an old softie, and there was lots of room for "experimentation." Daddy did, why not junior? He turned out real good as far as I'm concerned, even tho he now lives as far away from us as possible ( China ) . ( ???? )

Anyhow, that all points up MY point - that there are standards that make for a better life for all, and we allow them to be chipped away at our peril. Yeah, I tend toward giving folks lots of rope myself, just like you. I just think that on certain public issues, we all have a right to certain expectations when we give other folks the privilige of making monumental decisions for us. Otherwise, why shouldn't John Gotti be president? Or Hepcat?

So, in a nutshell ( did someone call Sheller a nut? ) I am just saying that there IS some sort of universal intelligence and morality, above and beyond ( and permeating ) all religions. THAT is what I try to "worship" - I have as little use for "priests" as you. That was what my soapbox stand was directed toward. I gave my reasons. I hope they made sense in a civilized context. Otherwise, I don't judge WJC. For I am a lowly sinner as well...and yet a glorious spirit, a chip off the old "block" as it were, of cosmic grandeur. Sometimes I try to act like one. Sorry if I rankled you by the attempt. Maybe now if you went back and saw the social and political reasons for my stand, you will at least see where I was truly coming from.


(Sun Jan 17 1999 10:59 - ID#343259)
It would take a football field 19.72 feet high of dense gold at 300 USD/OZ to pay that national debt, or 2,135 feet ( 5 feet short of half a mile ) of silver at 5.10 USD/Oz. I am adding the gold and silver to the chart, and will repost but before I do, I'd like to know if anyone has seen how the US mint ships ( Gold ) Eagles. I have the measurements for a mint box of Silver Eagles ( 25 containers of 20 ounces each ) but need a similar for minted gold in quantity to keep the chart uniform. Any help appreciated.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:01 - ID#224230)
I've vacillated over the Clinton thang. But more recently come around to a view that his actions are symptomatic of a more pervasive malaise in the quality of moral leadership the USA ought to be displaying. And isn't. In many areas - talk shows etc.

Whilst I reacted negatively to seeing Henry Hyde over the last few months, his summation was stellar - no pun intended. NOT ! : )

Though he could have painted an even more compelling metaphor. One of a bridge in which the whole structure is supported by a single stone. At the top. Lose trust in that stone and the whole edifice is in danger. Whilst the POTUS is not at the top of the judiciary hierarchy branch of government - loss of trust in due to a flagrant disrespect for the solemnity of taking an oath - he is nevertheless at the top of the most powerful branch of government.

P.S. Any time for a little analysis of my question some weeks back ? : )

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:09 - ID#343259)
Polarbear more stats
If you were to take Silver Eagles, as they ship from the mint in 500 ounce containers, and stack them on a football field ( each green mint box measuring 14.75" x 8.25" x 4.75" ) , and putting the cost of each coin at 6.65 USD/Oz Coin, then the football field would be 1.98 miles high with boxes to measure that debt.

If anyone has accurate cubages of other reference points ( like the Empire State Building ) or other mind-graspable constructs, please post, and I'll work them into the table.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:15 - ID#368244)
A Little Knowledge Is A Dangerous Thing

In the end we awaken to find that we are like a sinking ship, our knowledge is but a thread in the robe of the master plan.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:23 - ID#370236)
What if........?
Been thinkin' again ( this usually means trouble ) .

How can we make a difference? How to activate the talents so apparent
here at kitco?

I'm serious folks. There are some remarkable minds here.
What if we tried to do something together?

What if we all picked a "" chat site and started to participate?
Then, what if those .com's all started to tank?
Then, what if we all started to mention GOLD & SILVER on those boards?

Could we redirect the hysteria toward the PM market?

Just kitcoites acting in unison. Could we affect the markets?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:24 - ID#20359)
Don't be nice to Sheller, he will get used to it and be unBEARABLE...
Mike call me...sitting at the phone with baited breath...tastes terrible

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:29 - ID#348257)
please be so kind as to pose the question again...I'm sorry, I got sidetracked -

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:30 - ID#348257)
answer yer fone

(Sun Jan 17 1999 11:46 - ID#224230)
Thanks Mike - The meat of my question was :-

"Influential and potent forces pouring in at this time from the great
stars and Betelgeuse and Sirius. To these two influences, the disciples of the world in the senior ranks of New Group of world servers definetely
react, and they produce a stimulation of the heart centre ( Betelgeuse ) and the Head Centre ( Sirius ) . the secondary effect of these energies is upon the mineral kingdom, particularly upon that peculiar product, gold, and that enigma, money."


"The earthly triplicity of Capricorn, Virgo and Taurus for a triangle of
material expression which is of profound interest as one studies it from
either the angle of the ordinary round of the zodiac, followed by average and underdeveloped humanity, or from the angle of the disciple wherin the path of zodical progress is reversed."

AAB atuff as you know. Anything worth noting coming up soon regarding Capricorn, Virgo and Taurus ??

I have gold options ON THE LINE !


Anything happening with these fixed stars in the immediate future ?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:10 - ID#432130)
@Mike Sheller 10:52
"I am an eye through which the universe can see itself, and know itself divine".

I studied like yourself and for many years I believed like yourself. The quote above is something I learned while studying "Universal Truth"; New Age Stuff, etc.

Later, I found that all religions are exactly the same, in that their "Philosophies" teach self growth, character developement, etc. All for the purpose of attaining such things as "Enlightenment", "Karma", etc, etc, etc. But then why is it that nobody attains these things? It is because they are unattainable by Man. Buddha spent three years sitting under a tree to try and answer that question. His conclusion? "Misery is the result of desire." If you stop "desire" you can attain that unattainable goal. As of yet, the world is not enlightened. Not that Buddha was wrong, but because humans cannot do without "desire".

After learning that, I studied all religions to see what they taught. The long and short of it is that they all teach that through "personal growth and character developement", etc, etc, etc. They all teach the same thing with different words.

There is one ( only one ) exception to that rule: Christianity teaches that you CANNOT attain these things because your very nature is flawed. ( Buddha came close to this understanding with his misery=disere revalation ) . Without getting into what you dont want to hear, Christianity teaches that you are not going to get there on your own; no way, no how. You need "Him" to guide you to where SO many have been fooled into thinking they can attain these things themselves, through esoteric studies and beliefs.

Kitco is not the place for this type of discussion, but you brought it up.

Ps/ I have no desire to burn you at the stake : )

(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:13 - ID#350194)
Time Capsule
I wonder what people 50 or 100 years hence will think of this society's intelligence when they look back to 1999 and read comments like this:
"...Around the world, the retirement of
Michael Jordan was front-page material, while the beginning of the first
impeachment trial of an elected President in U.S. history got undercard
billing....In fact judging by world reaction this week, the
retirement of Mr. Jordan is viewed by many as being far more notable than
the potential retirement of Mr. Clinton."
and "...Oil was down again, this time by $0.07 to
close at $10.79 per barrel ( 44 U.S. gallons? ) ." In other word's, ( as remarked on Kitco lately ) , Crude Oil is now selling much cheaper than bottled water or Coca-Cola ( sugar water ) .
and "President of Argentina wants the U.S. dollar to replace all local currencies in S. America".
For want of a better comment on the lunacy of our 'modern' world I offer this quote:
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." ---Francis Bacon

(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:28 - ID#20359)
gwyz, Namaste'...dig it...gulp and a puff to ya...I dunno, burning Sheller at the stake
might not be a bad idea with the right side-dish...Hmmm...Sheller Flamb...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:31 - ID#348257)
dear gwyz, I would not be so quick to decide that none have attained about which you speak. That it is not apparent to the world if and when some do, may not fit in with your desire to see such proof, but it may very well exist, and since you cannot hope to judge every soul and circumstance, you must leave that question open. Man is a fallen creature, who can recapture his immortal and pure state once again by treading the divine and universal path. It may and likely will take lifteimes, but no vicarious atonement will do it for you. The glorious ONE of whom you speak is an illustration of what we should be about - a cosmic role model if you will - and a destroyer of all legalisms pertaining to the walk with God. Acknowledgement that this being emanated and personified the divine, and that there is a higher state for man to attain to beyond the mere carnal nature, is one measure of man's acceptance by God of companionship on the walk to regeneration. But to think that because of one's alliance with, and worship of, a particular symbol of the process one will be chosen above all others whose symbols do not "qualify" in your estimation may be a slippery path indeed.

If we are to speak here of the philosophical import of gold as relates to money, let us also occasionally speak of TRUTH as it relates to "religion." It is profitable.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:32 - ID#348257)
A1 stake sauce?

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:37 - ID#348257)
one more very IMPORTANT thing -
if you go back and read my posts which stimulated your reply, I did not say that "esoteric studies and beliefs" in any way allowed one to attain any kind of spiritual transcendance or even development. I said, I thought, that the UNIVERSAL principles are the same for all. It matters not what you know or believe, if you are not TRUE to what you know and believe. This is the so-called Holy Spirit, or Sheckhinah, of God, speaking within. I agree wholeheartedlyt that guidance from THAT is the true path of development and regeneration, not what you know or what you believe.
But what you learn and what you have come to depend upon as your reality scaffolding can be very reinforcing to the process, especially if you need to satisfy your Reason. And Reason, along with Justice, is just another component of the voice of God.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:53 - ID#348257)
You quoted Alice Bailey:

"Influential and potent forces pouring in at this time from the great
stars and Betelgeuse and Sirius. To these two influences, the disciples of the world in the
senior ranks of New Group of world servers definetely
react, and they produce a stimulation of the heart centre ( Betelgeuse ) and the Head
Centre ( Sirius ) . the secondary effect of these energies is upon the mineral kingdom,
particularly upon that peculiar product, gold, and that enigma, money."


"The earthly triplicity of Capricorn, Virgo and Taurus for a triangle of
material expression which is of profound interest as one studies it from
either the angle of the ordinary round of the zodiac, followed by average and
underdeveloped humanity, or from the angle of the disciple wherin the path of zodical
progress is reversed."

My commentary:

Without sounding too biblically apocalyptic, the world is at an important crossroads. Our material development, while a blessing to all mankind, and in need of further extension to millions who have not, has become the sole driving force of humanity and its only significant preoccupation. The earthsign activity of which AAB spoke is at a fever pitch. Man must quickly determine what the true future of the race should be and how to efficiently and justly attain it, or we will smother ourselves in our SUV's, sneakers, and sports logos.
There is a monumental philosophical emptyness, pointed up especially by the political blandness and total eradsication of ideology for pragmatic opportunism. This is no way to run a railroad. There will be horrendous wrecks coming, not the least of which will be financial. We stand on the precipice of a fresh Dark Age. We have not gone irrevocably over the edge yet, but the gravel is rolling out from under our feet.

I think the members of the Lucis Trust ( or Foundation, or whatever it is these days ) put too much stock in the World Servers ( unless they mean computers? ) and the power of their thinking. Their actions have certainly been wanting, but perhaps I am being too difficult here. All the Bailyites I've known were very santimonious - they all thought THEY were the only members of the "club" with the real skinny, and I am sure they all thought of themselves as among the World Servers, etc. It is always better to think of onbeself as a nothing. Better for the world, better your one's self, and better for God.
I haven't seen a "spiritual" movement yet that promises to make a breakthrough into a reawakening of massconsciousness. But it will come. Let us hope its excesses are not too severe.

The heart and the head must combine for a compassionate, just, reasoned approach based on what we already know. If we can be responsible to what we have learned up until now ( and it is considerable ) we have a chance. But mankind must stress the mental and rational over the physical and material as an overriding value and the source of all progress. Otherwise the future is highly problematic.

But I'd better lighten up before I draw more flak around here.
As for gold & silver, what can I say. I am long shares and own bullion which I've been picking up here and there over the past year.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 12:59 - ID#26793)
Yeltsin rushed to hospital with bleeding ulcer

(Sun Jan 17 1999 13:06 - ID#26793)
Germany is losing a customer; sales to Russia drop 27%

(Sun Jan 17 1999 13:33 - ID#20359)
Governments have created a world of chaos...dislocations everywhere you look
and financial markets in shambles...the global elite, political elite... this then is their world...lies, under the table "deals" behind closed doors...the people worldwide kept in the dark as to Executive Orders, and criminal activities for the "good" of the people...horsepucky...

Clintler giving the Fate of the Union claptrap BS speech...he does not speak for the United States and he surely does not speak for the world...and without question...he is a poor example to speak to and for the next millenium...which by the way folks is:

Arthur C. Clarke Upset Over 2000 millennium
Article from

COLOMBO  Arthur C. Clarke, author of 2001: A Space Odyssey, feels so strongly about people calling next year a new millennium that he issued a public statement this week to correct them.

Because the Western calendar starts with Year 1, and not Year 0, the 21st Century and the Third Millennium do not begin until January 1, 2001, Clarke said in a statement received by Reuters Thursday.
Though some people have great difficulty in grasping this, theres a very simple analogy which should appeal to everyone. If the scale on your grocers weighing machine began at 1 instead of 0, would you be happy when he claimed hed sold you 10 kg of tea? Clarke questioned.
And its exactly the same with time. Well have had only 99 years of this century by January 1, 2000: well have to wait until December 31 for the full hundred.

Clarkes view has long been held by people who doubt that anyone else can count.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard, for example, made the same point in 1997  only to be called the party pooper of the century in newspapers.

Clarke said the psychological effect of the three zeros and the Y2K bug that will affect computers was much too powerful to be ignored.
So everyone will start celebrating at midnight December 31, 1999, Clarke said, adding that 2000 should be called the Centennial Year and 2001 the Millennial Year.

British-born Clarke, who has lived in Colombo for more than 30 years, is the author of scores of novels and science-fiction books and the creator of several documentaries.

In the last half century, many of Clarkes predictions have come true, including his then-controversial 1945 outline of a network of geo-stationary communication satellites.


(Sun Jan 17 1999 13:37 - ID#20359)
China...the bastion of freespeech and democracy...NOT!!!

(Sun Jan 17 1999 13:56 - ID#257313)
The Canadian Gold mountie buy back @ $310?
Does anyone understand what their intentions are? Are they going to buy back all the gold mounties @ the end of the year or what? Didnt Canadas CB sell most of its gold reserve? I suppose their using a Dollar reserve now? How do Canadians feel about this?

Thin Long & Hard On This
(Sun Jan 17 1999 14:21 - ID#359307)
@Tantalus Jan 17 1999 11:23
( What if........? ) May I suggest the IRC channel #daytraders on
Othernet ( ) in the half hour before market open
( 9.30 US or 14:30 GMT ) - you will find approx. 1000 stock market
traders there to hear the message about gold. Surprisingly,
when there is a pop up in the price of gold stocks
it is noted with interest there.

BTW, that should be "THINK long and hard..."

(Sun Jan 17 1999 14:29 - ID#29036)
pog and internet stocks...
no more complaining about pog...if you feel the need to sell, go
to eBay, where a credit suisse 1 oz bar has a current bid of
$360. golden eagles are going for as much as $325.
seems to me that this is not unlike the prices being paid
for internet stocks..there's always a greater fool out there

(Sun Jan 17 1999 14:44 - ID#288353)
Aurator.... re Merkin
Glad to hear the Canadian perjorative. The Aussies use rhyming slang ( originating from London cockneys ) and call 'em Septic Tanks, or just septics for short.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 14:44 - ID#370218)
Sheller...what you doin'...
RUMOR has it that your last post is part of Greenspeaks next Humphrey-Hawkins speach to Congress. RUMOR also has it you left out the part about the gold standard...tsk...tsk.: )

I keep reading his speaches and either the entire world currency structure is going to collapse or "they" will attend to fixing it before AG leaves town in April. Place your bets folk.

Greenspeak... and... and... and... and...

BTW...some really good posts this weekend, especially regarding gold and silver. get Disney to have Chris back off of $325 and then $238...ugh!


(Sun Jan 17 1999 14:49 - ID#370218)
I misspoke...not a gold standard...
a standard. That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it until May....odds now at 20 million to one.


(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:11 - ID#266105)

Durban Roodepoort Deep quarterly results on Thursday.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:12 - ID#402236)
"Gold is going up". "No, I think it's going down". "According to my charts, it's headed round, and

(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:16 - ID#20359)
TYoung,Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...yuz gots it allz wrong...Mike Sheller is a soup ignites as the beans help him wax poetic...his is a brave soul as he is a cerebral scout...a pioneer of thought...he is out there...not content to remain within the safety of specific belief jumps into the void not to land...but to see how far up he can go...

Real Money
(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:25 - ID#40881)
A bet on Gold is a bet against the U.S. dollar, This has not been a good bet lately. Gold will not soar until the dollar crashes. When it turns, I think everything will turn with it...the DOW, interest rates, consumer confidence and consumer spending. The catalyst could very well be the departure of AG.

It takes patience to be a goldbug.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:32 - ID#317193)
tol#1...and back at you...perhaps someday I can have a few brews...w/out permission...with you and Sheller. So as to soak up some of those THOUGHTS!

Rumpled...only and F-...well, guess it is better than expulsion...or is it?


(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:33 - ID#34459)
Timely Advice from John Bollinger.....
John Bollinger, Formally the FNN resident market technician, now a money manager in California has stated it better than most and he now says the end is very near.

This is the way it will turn out

(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:39 - ID#20359)
TYoung, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
look forward to it...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 15:58 - ID#224230)
I sense this too. South America Silver weighted perhaps. Asian Gold.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:05 - ID#300202)
U New Brunswick hicks are all alike. Go to B.C. & git a job will ya? If not-I kin fix u up in Ft. McMurray.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:09 - ID#348257)
BTW that Bollinger - liked his band! Snappy tunes.

SERIOUSLY THO: As for Greenspan and the Gold Standard, it occurred to me the other day, either in the shower, or in a dream, or at work, that PERHAPS AG and this low POG thing is all part of a brilliant plot not to dismiss gold as a monetary instrument, but to eventually ENTHRONE it once more!!!

Hear me out Kitcoites... AG and the cabal realize that the drastic evaporation of many trade barriers in this electronic age is leading to an evening of the living standards and productivity distribution throughout the world. If gold is to become the standard once again, it must start from a position of reasonably equitable distribution - at least relative to the emergence of so many newly prospering sections of the globe. The game is not just America, Canada, Japan and's everyone going for it now. Despite recent turmoil and floundering ( or fluking ) the future is surely one of continued expansion and economic progress and maturation for Latin America, Asia, China, Eastern Europe ( maybe, eventually, even Russia ) and someday Africa.

To pave the way for his dream of a gold standard, AG has doubtless been working with Central Banks everywhere to lower the POG through lease/sales that even Kitcoites complain has not moved the gold out of CB vaults much. So does that mean that the paper transactions are putting reasonably priced, easy to acquire gold into the coffers of national CB's? Where is that "sold" gold going? Especially if it ain't sold??? Then, when everyone has what is agreed are proper balances of gold relative to their international financial standing, the GOLD STANDARD can be introduced.

Am I crazy? I leave it up to the brilliant and erudite Kitcoites to see if there is any possibility my dream thought holds water.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:10 - ID#348257)
anytime you're on Long Island, let us know!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:12 - ID#348257)
Some Martian Chronicles
At the risk of overwhelming some, and angering others, while perhaps delighting a few, I would like to make a few astrological observations regarding nations that may be of some interest in anticipating coming events. After all, there is no denying that "investing" is all about calling the future, and this cannot be denied. Open minded folks should welcome every little clue.

So if you've a mind to read this, you might want to get out your calendars and make a few scrawls. As THC pointed out last night, astrology is NOT a "sure fire" means to knowing the future. If it was, I'd be posting this from my Villa in Costa Rica from the veranda of my 100 acre Hacienda. Astrology does, however, often uncannily spotlight time windows of probability. Often predicted activity does occur and may or may not come to light as reportable news. Sometimes a clandestine meeting by powerful interests that never comes to general attention is more significant than a devaluation, or explosion, or social trauma. Keep this in mind. Don't try to be judgemental ( like me ) , just be open for clues.

We want to watch Mars in this regard, inasmuch as it is fast-moving enough to be bringing some interesting aspects immediately ahead, while providing just that irritating "kick" to events that the Red Planet of "War", iron, and steel, and generally agitated activity, is known for. It was Mars that conjuncted S&P Future horoscope Pluto on the 15th last week, anticipating, or synchronizing ( if you will ) with a volatile market and the Brazilian devaluation ( Mars was ALSO conjuncting Brazil's Uranus ( ( no jokes now! ) ) on the SAME DAY - coincidence??? I don't think so ) .

So Mars may be doing its thing with Argentina when it conjuncts Argentina's natal horoscope Jupiter at 0 Scorpio on January 26, 27, 28. Not as earthshaking as a hit to Uranus or Pluto, but interesting nevertheless. Saludos!

Mars is sweeping across Turkey's Mercury/Saturn conjunction right now, and will line up with that nation's natal Sun on February 9th. The 2nd week in February might be one to watch concerning Turkey.

Couldn't wait, could you? Kuwait's Neptune is at 8 Scorpio. Everyone knows Neptune signifies Gas & Oil, among other things, and Mars conjuncting it from February 19-23 might just have some bearing on that commodity in Kuwait. But that is just an odds-on guess.

John Disney may want to be especially vigilant for the next 3 weeks as Mars transits S. A.'s Jupiter/Mercury/Venus combo from 27 - 29 Libra. Then again on February 11, 12, Mars hits S.A. Sun at 6 Scorpio. A little irritation here? Maybe good news for Geld?

Jupiter conjuncts Venezuela Pluto at 6 Aries Mid March. This might be expansionary, and benign. Perhaps good news for the source of Venezuela's greatest wealth - oil ( ? ) Any transit can be negative OR positive - only God really knows WHAT will happen when an astrological time window is activated. We can only watch and wait as the window approaches...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:21 - ID#348257)
I agree with you and contrarian. The prognostication record at Kitco has been abominable and the footloose and free making of investment calls should stop. I say only those Kitcoites whose calls are going to be absolutely correct should be allowed to post, while all others be condemned to merely lurk.
had enuf

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:26 - ID#317193)
My dream or yours...who invited who?
Sheller...youz was in my dream...or I was in yours...don't remember sleeping with you...are you a virgin? Never mind.

You express my THOUGHTS. However, the chance that the powers that be would give up the power to spend without limit to buy votes is against all odds. Then again, perhaps it will be the central bankers who pull the "fat" out of the fire before disaster? We watch and wait.

BTW uncle Al is coming for dinner...I'll ask. : ) : ) rumor/rumor/rumor

esotericist...our odds are so bad it makes the lottery look like a sure thing. It is my rumor and I'm sticking to it...'til May.


(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:27 - ID#20359)
I think financial experts should have to wear big red noses so we can identify the Clowns...

Cage Rattler
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:30 - ID#33182)
Is market breadth a measure of any use?
If the technology revolution is concentrating wealth to those corporations who are harnessing it most and even more to those who create it, sell it, etc. it SHOULD therefore be expected that many companies would be left in the dust and that market breadth, especially Nasdaq, would be weak.

I recently heard convincing arguments re the question of small cap underpreformance vs Big cap , the conclusion being it is not across the board small companies growing faster across the board but rather ( with many exceptions ) small companies trying to hold on against their bigger more technology adept why wouldn't small caps be losing in this technology driven age...

If one were worried about breadth one would have missed the complete bull market...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:35 - ID#20359)
Aussie's in disarray...,1088,8394-14440-102432-0,00.html

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:37 - ID#20359)
I don't know why NANDO links change when pasting is the Aussie thing...
Controversy surrounds new Australian olive pit spitting record

Copyright  1999 Nando Media
Copyright  1999 Agence France-Press

BRISBANE, Australia ( January 16, 1999 11:06 p.m. EST ) - An army captain set a new record at the Australian olive pit spitting championships Sunday, but not without controversy over whether a light cross-wind may have had aided in the heave.

Australian Olives marketing manager Chris Preston said judges were unsure whether Captain Doug Maddocks' 35-foot spit was assisted by a light cross-wind blowing at the Yallamundi olive plantation.

But Preston said the judges had decided to award Maddocks the title anyway and history will show a new Australian record was set Sunday after the soldier added six feet to last year's mark.

Maddocks was one of 40 competitors taking part in the championships which were part of an open day designed to showcase the olive plantation and attract investors.

Australian olive growers are setting their sights on the massive worldwide market for olive oil with conditions in some parts of the country considered ideal olive groves.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:40 - ID#20359)
Classic example of how Hollywood is all talk...they don't care as long as they get their way...
Thai enviromentalists protest DiCaprio movie

Copyright  1999 Nando Media
Copyright  1999 Agence France-Press

PHI PHI ISLAND, Thailand ( January 16, 1999 6:37 a.m. EST ) - Environmental campaigners opposed to the filming of Leonardo DiCaprio's new movie here mounted a protest Saturday at the mouth of an idyllic bay that they claim will be ruined by the shoot.

A boatload of campaigners voyaged to Maya Bay in Phi Phi island national park in southern Thailand to highlight their claim the film shoot of "The Beach" will damage the area's fragile ecosystem.

A police launch and around a dozen long-tailed boats guarded the entrance to the bay in which glorious white sands are framed by turquoise waters and a natural amphitheater of limestone cliffs.

Residents claim producers 20th Century Fox have churned up dunes and ruined the ecosystem of the beach by planting palm trees and ripping up vegetation.

Fox denies the charges, and has defeated two attempts to win injunctions from opponents who want shooting to be halted until a full court case in March.

Bangkok law lecturer Prinya Thaewanarumithkul, who was among protesters, questioned the legal basis of the government department which gave the go-ahead for filming.

"We are demanding a review of all activities of the forestry department and an end to filming," he said.

"We think what they have done to this national park is illegal."

A petition of 40 signatures of leading law professors would be sent to the agriculture minister asking the courts to stop filming, he said.

A Fox representative told protesters the security measures and filming were all being carried out according to law.

Thailand's Civil Court on Friday accepted a petition from island residents demanding Fox pay a $2.7 million bond against environmental damage.

The Hollywood giant has a week to produce counterarguments. The company has already paid a $138,800 bond against damage.

Fox and government officials say there will be no lasting environmental damage when the film crew packs up and goes home.

Luxury cabin cruisers floated offshore on the second day of filming for the movie Saturday and gear was unloaded from a cargo ship as residents planned to mount an evening protest against filming.

The row over the film has been brewing for months and has involved protests, sit-ins and a letter campaign in Thai newspapers.

"The Beach," based on Alex Garland's cult novel of the same name, tells the story of a traveler whose infatuation with Thailand leads him to a remote island inhabited by a community of displaced Westerners.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:43 - ID#317193)
Cage Rattler..yes and no...
During tax loss selling season in the US...NO. However, overall the market had better have more than 200-300 stocks going up to have a bull market. Breadth matters most about right now. Just as it mattered last year when breadth was bad after April...then we had May, June, July...and oops...down.

We is going up in the stock market...'til we go way down. Mark this prediction...February...down...March...down...April...down....May...down.See up in the last quarter. I don't even call this a rumor. Call Envy for the rest of us for gold/silver.

How's you weather.


Cage Rattler
(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:53 - ID#33182)
TYoung - thanks for the comments re breadth
Cape Town weather is boringly perfect! Cloudless days, blue seas, etc. etc.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 16:53 - ID#329186)
Mike Sheller (Gold standard) ID#348257

No you most certainly are not crazy.

Most of us accept that POG has been manipulated down.
Sales from one CB to another are probably just stories we speculate on Kitco as to where the 8,500 to 11,000 tonnes of short gold is,but as every thing on large trades is opaque ( pushed from 1 slot to another in either The BOE or federal depository ) and weeks or months after the event we are told that bank a has sold x tonnes !!! more fiction ?
All the "reserves" figs are trotted out unaudited.
I have given up trying to figure out what % of the Euro reserves are gold as it changes and again is not audited.

Could be there are a lot of arguments about who ends up with what ?,you know when thieves fall out etc!
again the best laid plans of mice & men..........
It would appear that there is a senario to handle all scares that should move POG up, for now anyway, most of this planet are in the dark re Y2K but that I feel will be the catylist.

When & where ? would you calculate a reintroduction from the date the Gold standard was abandoned? or started? over to you

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 17:06 - ID#348257)
CPO, Tolly
CPO: Brilliant suggestionabout looking at Gold Standard Abandonment chart! Thanks.

Tolly: Hollywood IS words...and pictures.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 17:14 - ID#411251)
@CAPER---I gots me a reel fine job, rite here in N.B. Got a lip lock on da Gov tit,
an I aint a lettin go!!

(Sun Jan 17 1999 17:18 - ID#20359)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...yea and verily...but...empty be the
words...the pictures no more than a hypocrisy of colors on a false canvas..

(Sun Jan 17 1999 17:54 - ID#300202)
You herring chokers r a lot brighter than dem dere capers. We cant figure out dis pogey stuff at all. Met a guy from Buctouche once who was involved in gold buggery and an anal ist like yerself.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:04 - ID#290215)
EEEEzzzzz up on dem east coast welfare basket cases,soooon de be taken over by the short on brain gang, de Qubecors den de all be taken over by de 6 nation natives ( Canadian Army ) .

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:04 - ID#20359)

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:08 - ID#20359)
read each and every one of these...what's wrong with this picture?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:10 - ID#20359)
But they do not ask what type of micro-chip...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:21 - ID#300202)
Take away dat dere Q-bec place & we got a quicker drive to Ft McMurray fer a job. Cudn't believe it-but on news tonite-Some Cdn Military on welfare. Pay raise commin' up before Y2K. Beefin' up the Militia here now also. 2nd biggest employer after the coal mines. Watched Chretien apologise ( out of the side of his mouth tonite ) -as during the Church Service at Peggy's cove ( Swiss Air Disaster ) -the word CHRIST was not permitted by Gov't Decree. Chretien stated it must have been a mistake. Ah yuh!

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:21 - ID#34883)

"METALS: Gold is in the process of entirely ceding its title as a safe haven
store of value, with its lackluster performance during the Brazil crisis"

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:34 - ID#254288)
More detailes info on the proposed Viceroy/Rayrock merger

A few words from the article. "monetary assets $106 million including $75 million cash". I assume this means Canadian - although Rayrock's cash assets were given in US $, have to do some checking here. The article

Also Aurizon producing at a record rate for 98, but they will take a non-cash writedown on their Mexican Property. Cash flow will not be effected and it probably has positive tax results. Hopefully someone will give them several million for this Mexican property, as it's a large tonnage, low grade copper/gold property and will require DEBT or more shares to make into a mine.

Looks like Dayton Mines is gonna make it and this is good for McWatters Mining who is now finding more deep resources/reserves at their Sigma Mine -this in addition to the near surface reserves of gold they've been finding there.

Interesting aside in the Northern Miner's -"Mining Markets and Investment News" column-
"Nickel prices gained a stunning 29 cents over the week, reaching US 2.09 per lb. on renewed hope that the economies of Southeast Asia might once again be on the upswing".

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:47 - ID#26793)
Finance officials having second thoughts that Brazil devaluation was good news.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 18:58 - ID#26793)
The new head of the Brazilian Central Bank has no idea what he is going to do

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:07 - ID#329186)
Mike Sheller ( just e-mailed you with a date US dropping cash) TBC ( to be confirmed)
I tried to post it here but got an HTML message wondered if you could help

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:16 - ID#335190)
Money @ Blood-money & Bride-money - Religious rites & Commerce Gold & Grain & Banking & Taxes
Origins of Money and of Banking

The history of credit and banking goes back much further than the history of coins. Nevertheless the story of the origins of money goes back even further still.

The origins of money in its various forms, and of banking, are discussed in a recent book:

Davies, Glyn. A history of money from ancient times to the present day, rev.ed. Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1996. 716 pages. ISBN 0 7083 1351 5

What is Money?

At first sight the answer to this question seems obvious; the man or woman in the street would agree on coins and banknotes, but would they accept them from any country? What about cheques?

They would probably be less willing to accept them than their own country's coins and notes but bank money ( i.e. anything for which you can write a cheque ) actually accounts for by far the greatest proportion by value of the total supply of money. What about I.O.U.s ( I owe you ) , credit cards and gold?

The gold standard belongs to history but even today in many rich people in different parts of the world would rather keep some of their wealth in the form of gold than in official, inflation-prone currencies.

The attractiveness of gold, from an aesthetic point of view, and its resistance to corrosion are two of the properties which led to its use for monetary transactions for thousands of years.

In complete contrast, a form of money with virtually no tangible properties whatsoever - electronic money - seems set to gain rapidly in popularity.

Causes of the Development of Money

In his preface the author writes:

"Money originated very largely from non-economic causes: from tribute as well as from trade, from blood-money and
bride-money as well as from barter, from ceremonial and religious rites as well as from commerce, from ostentatious ornamentation as well as from acting as the common drudge between economic men."

The Invention of Banking and Coinage

The invention of banking preceded that of coinage

In Egypt too the centralization of harvests in state warehouses also led to the development of a system of banking.

Written orders for the withdrawal of separate lots of grain by owners whose crops had been deposited there for safety and convenience, or which had been compulsorily deposited to the credit of the king, soon became used as a more general method of payment of debts to other persons including tax gatherers, priests and traders.

Even after the introduction of coinage these Egyptian grain banks served to reduce the need for precious metals which tended to be reserved for foreign purchases, particularly in connection with military activities.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:20 - ID#411251)
I'm sendin a telegram to da PM. I propose dat da rest of Canada work 5 extra hrs per week, an pay
more taxes. Dat way dey can increase our welfare + Uic salaries.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:20 - ID#329186)
Mike Sheller ( US Banks stop cash in April !!
Tried again in word hope it works

Visit January 12, 1999

I have copied part of the below article for your interest and consideration
as to what may be going on in the UK

Cashless in 1999?
Will the Banks put the "Squeeze" on us soon?
By Ken Raggio
[edited for length]

A close friend of mine was conducting a Y2k seminar in mid-November with
about 300 people in attendance. At the end of the session, a lady
introduced herself as a bank official at the largest bank in her state. My
friend asked her if her bank was ready for the Year 2000 computer crisis.

Her reply was very interesting. First of all, she said that every bank
employee had been instructed to answer all public inquiries by saying "Yes,
our bank is Y2K Compliant." Any employee who answered otherwise would be

Then she informed him candidly that their bank had already conducted two
Y2k tests on their computer systems. BOTH TESTS failed completely -- shut
down! So in spite of the public assurances that this huge bank is ready
for Y2k, they are plainly LYING to the public.

Secondly, she offered additional information. She said, "We have also been
informed that in April, 1999, WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE CASH!" What??
Friend, can you tell me why the largest bank in that state has informed
it's officers that it will not issue cash in April? I suspect that
something big is about to happen, and it's going to happen a whole lot
sooner than we think.

I just received a short email from one of my readers with a one-line
message;" My daughter works for ____ ( one of the largest banks on the East
Coast ) , and they have advised them to set aside enough cash for 3-6 months.
They say the bank could be closed for days at a time."

Recently, I went to a bank ( not my own ) to cash a check that was drawn on
that bank. I properly endorsed the check ( it was written to me ) , and
presented my driver's license with photo ID. The teller handed me an INK
PAD, and asked me to put my THUMB PRINT on the back of the check. I
refused to give my thumb print to cash the check. I insisted that she cash
the check without my thumb print. She said she could not. I asked to speak
to her manager.

Her manager came out and I told him that I considered the thumb print
requirement to be an invasion of my privacy. He told me that it was bank
policy, and he could not cash the check without my thumb print.

I asked to speak to the Branch Manager. They took me into his office. He
was a senior executive with the bank. I told him that I wanted to cash my
check. I told him that I had given the teller adequate endorsement and
identification, and I expected them to cash the check without my thumb

He instantly grew belligerent and informed me that if I didn't want to give
my thumb print that I could just go to another bank. I told him that I
didn't believe that it was necessary to have my thumb print to identify me.
He explained that it was company policy. I asked him what they were going
to do with my thumb print. He said that they were going to put it on
computer file.

I said that I didn't WANT my thumb print in their computer files. He
suggested I take my check somewhere else. I left immediately.

My point in telling you this is that we are getting closer and closer to a
banking system that increasingly invades the privacy and rights of its

This week's headlines included the story of the FDIC pushing Congress to
pass new laws requiring banks to report the banking activities of all their
customers. The public is outraged, but in the end, the FDIC will probably
get what they want. Every time we make a transaction that is a little
different than our established "pattern", our bank will be reporting us to
"Big Brother". It is an economic Gestapo. Economic sanctions is one of the
New World Order's more ingenious control tactics. Ultimately you will be
so outraged, you will wish you could get out of the system. Unfortunately,
you will not be able to do business outside the system.

The Gartner Group, a international consulting firm that has been on the
cutting edge of Y2K research, recently found that no less than 50% of all
businesses world-wide will experience mission-critical computer failures in
the Year 2000. Can you imagine the impact on society if HALF of all the
world's businesses collapse in the first half of 2000?

Friends, it's time to FAST, PRAY, and BELIEVE GOD for critical direction
for our lives in the weeks and months ahead.
Editors Note: It is also prudent and wise that these sort of stories should
be checked out before you believe them.
Who is Ken Raggio anyway, another so called shelf appointed prophet?
Issue date: 14 January 1999

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:22 - ID#26793)
Rudi Dornbusch offers financial advice to Brazil

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:29 - ID#219363)
Japan's Account Surplus Off 5.3 Pct.
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's broadest measure of trade fell in November, declining 5.3 percent from a year ago, the government said Monday. The current account surplus, unadjusted for seasonal factors, was at $10.6 billion in November, the Finance Ministry announced. The decline ended six straight months of monthly year-on-year increases in the surplus. The current account measures the difference between income from foreign sources and foreign obligations payable, excluding net capital investment. Japan has come under increasing pressure to revive its sluggish economy to import more goods and cap the surplus.
Nikkei up 200+ points, nearing 14000 on the upside.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:32 - ID#219363)
Are We Back to the Go-Go Days?
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- David L. Babson, a pioneer of modern stock market investing, demonstrated to a public scarred by losses during the Great Depression and wartime inactivity that money could be multiplied. After what they had been through, few investors in the late 1940s viewed the stock market as an opportunity for growth of capital. They were happy just to get their 6 percent dividends each year. Babson taught that dividends were good for preserving capital but that corporate growth could build capital into something more. He succeeded, and then the new "gunslinger" institutional managers caught on. Mutual fund managers churned huge amounts of money in and out of speculative small company shares. "Performance" became the name of the game. Speculate. Make money quickly. Take a ride on the go-go stocks. It provokes the question: Is something of the sort happening again?

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:33 - ID#348257)
CPO - your 19:20
got your e-mail. Glad you posted for all to see. A chilling Y2K-related communication.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:35 - ID#219363)
Brazil Crisis Renews Economy Threat
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A two-month calm in world financial markets vanished suddenly as Brazil became last week the latest victim of a revived global economic crisis. The fire wall that the Clinton administration and the International Monetary Fund had erected around Latin America's largest economy proved just as ineffectual as past efforts to contain the spreading contagion.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:36 - ID#348257)
Envy- AU GO GO
Everything cycles...all things move in cycles...yes, we are back to the go-go days of the late 60's. Nifty Fifty, etc. Only with a new face. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Actually, when all is said and done, all is right with the world.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:39 - ID#219363)
Ford To Shut Down Brazilian Factory
SAO PAULO, Brazil ( AP ) -- Unable to operate its plant with nearly 3,000 dismissed workers inside, the Brazilian subsidiary of Ford Motor Co. will shut down its factory until Feb.1, local media reported Sunday. Ford said in a statement the decision was made because of "the technical impossibility of resuming its operation with the daily presence of dismissed workers inside its installations." Another roughly 4,000 workers who were not fired were given paid leave, said the statement, distributed by Agencia Folha. For nearly two weeks, 2,800 Ford workers have been ignoring their pink slips, showing up every day for work in an effort to force the company to reconsider their dismissal.
Love 'em and leave 'em.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:42 - ID#219363)
@Mike Sheller
Amen, all is indeed right with the world.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:43 - ID#280222)
..heard a good quote today during Atl-Min game...
"The good ones get better."________________ This reminds me of

something an old commodities trader said when asked, "How do

bad traders transform themselves?" His answer, "They don't, because

that's something that good traders do."

Strad Master
(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:43 - ID#250297)
Brazil and the Global Economy
ALL: Found this article to be be really intersting and would like anyone with a handle on such things to comment. I must go now, but will return later to be enlightened. Many thanks:

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
January 18, 1999

Brazil's Message: Forget the Global, Think Local


* The decision to float Brazil's real triggered widespread fears
that another phase in a global economic crisis is about to begin.
Having passed through rounds of the Asian and Russian crises,
there is a sense that Brazil's devaluation is part of a greater
threat to the international economic system. We do not see this
as a global problem, but rather as a series of regional problems.
By devaluing, Brazil is clearing the decks of an essentially
healthy economy. With this finally out of the way, the long-term
investment atmosphere in Brazil actually improves. We not only
remain bullish on Latin America, but also are increasingly
convinced that to understand international economics forget the
global, think local.


The Brazilian decision to float the real shocked financial
markets around the world on Wednesday, triggering fears that
another round in the global crisis is about to begin. There was
a sudden sense that the resilience the world economy had shown
since the summer might have been illusory, and that a cancer in
the global economy was still gnawing away at its innards. For a
moment, it seemed that a legitimate panic was setting in. By
Friday, a very different sensibility was in place. The real had
fallen about 15 percent, which was not inconsiderable, but did
not represent a catastrophic implosion. The Sao Paolo stock
market rose 33 percent in one day's trading, while most of the
world's markets, save some in Asia, also surged. In a matter of
days, the world went from panic to confidence, with emotions
cycling as rapidly as markets.

The week's events were fascinating not only because of what they
told us about the resilience of the Brazilian economy in
particular and Latin American economies in general, but because
of what they told us about the global economy. To be more
precise, the events in Brazil are telling us that we are not
living in a world of global economies that are of one fabric, but
of geographically differentiated, highly fragmented economies.
Put another way, it is not a small world after all and CNN has
not created a global village. It is a very large and complex
world, and events in one part of the world may have very little
effect on things happening in other parts.

One of the foundations of the great fear of a global economic
meltdown is the feeling that the world economy is of a single
fabric and that whatever happens in one place immediately effects
things happening in other places. This sense of global
vulnerability has created a psychology constantly on the verge of
panic. Since at any moment something bad is happening somewhere
in the world, the global sensibility immediately generates a
sense of global vulnerability. Thus, Brazil's problems ( or
Russia's or Japan's or China's ) are immediately seen as a
harbinger of global disaster. There is a sense that there is an
intractable, global problem that simply cannot be solved and that
this represents a fundamental threat to the international
economic system. The proof: something is always going wrong

Now, in a peculiar contrarian sense, this is all to the good.
The hysteria of the month helps to deflate markets periodically
and keeps investors on their toes. For this reason, we hesitate
to debunk it, especially since it provides excellent buying
opportunities. However, there is, strictly speaking, no global
financial problem. Rather, there are a series of regional
problems, which, while they do influence each other, do not flow
from the same cause, cannot be solved by any single means, and do
not affect each other nearly as much as people believe. Things
may well be terrible in some parts of the world, but that does
not mean that the world as a whole is on the brink of

There are three regional crises:

* Asia: a crisis developing over the long-term, rooted in public
policies deliberately designed to prevent recessions, that has
permitted massive, systemic inefficiency and unacceptably low
rates of return on capital to undermine the long-term viability
of the region's economies. The problem is particularly severe in
Japan, which is among the few major markets to have declined
since September. Japan's problems are deep, intractable and
probably insoluble without a political smash-up. Nevertheless,
Japan and Asia's problems have had minimal impact on the U.S. and
Europe until now, and we see no reason why it should have a
greater effect in 1999 than it did in previous years.

* Russia: the inability of the Russian and other economies of the
former Soviet Union to convert from a command to a market
economy. Essentially, the cost of re-capitalizing the Russian
economy so that it can compete internationally outstrips the
ability of the economy to generate capital internally or attract
capital externally. As a result, any investment in the economy
fails because of a lack of infrastructure needed to support it.
The Russian situation means that German investors will experience
massive losses, but the news from Russia is well known and has
already been discounted.

* Brazil: a rapidly developing economy suffering from high
capital demand and tight capital supply, moving rapidly from
capital over-supply to under-supply as the result of quite minor
shifts in relationships. This rapid cycling is quite common in
early stage, hot economies -- as could be seen in Asia in the
1970s. It is not truly economic dysfunction as much as the
immaturity of the Brazilian economy. Having grown too rapidly, it
temporarily outstripped available domestic and international
credit. Not unlike the ASEAN countries in the late 1970s, the
periodic financial crises represent, in our view, growing pains
in an emerging region. The evidence is fairly straightforward:
floating the currency created a quite orderly devaluation and a
1/3 overnight rise in stock prices. Therefore, we believe that
Brazil's structural problems are probably not as deep-seated as
some might believe.

To summarize: Asia is old and tired, Russia never got into the
game, and Latin America is in an early take-off stage. Far from
being a single pattern of global instability, the crisis
represents a rotation between Asia as the "hot" region of the
world and the new emerging "hot" region, which is Latin America.
Russia is irrelevant.

There is obviously some connection between Latin America and
Asia, but it is important not to over-emphasize the connection.
Undoubtedly, psychological elements play a role. Investors
frightened by Brazil's problems will undoubtedly experience an
increased degree of caution when investing in Asia. This should
not be overestimated, however, since Asia has appropriately
frightened investors over a year. It is hard to imagine them
being more cautious. Moreover, the structural effect of Brazil
on the financial markets, in terms of contracting available
capital, is not going to be that significant. For some time,
there has been a great deal of hedging on Brazil.

The most important potential influence of the Brazilian market is
on the United States. The American economy is the major engine
driving the global economy. Asia's limited hopes for a recovery
are absolutely dependent on the ability of the American economy
to absorb more Asian exports. The United States increasingly
profits from Latin American trade and a Latin American economic
contraction might affect U.S. exports to the region. This could
push the American economy closer to recession, closing off any
hope for an Asian recovery in the next 12-24 months.

This is the most plausible connection between the Brazilian and
Asian crises, but it is not all that persuasive either. The
American economy is a roaring engine. The marginal effect of a
Brazilian or general Latin American contraction will hardly be
felt. There is no doubt that the United States is going to go
into a healthy, cyclical recession at some point. However, the
timing of that contraction will have to do with internal market
cycles rather than external events on the order of Brazil.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve has shown itself quite prepared to
respond to international crises by easing money supply. Since the
U.S economy is not showing serious inflationary signs, this may
happen again. Finally, international crises appear to
consistently strengthen the American economy by causing money to
flow into American markets in search of safety.

The Brazilian situation does not, therefore, strike us as a
worsening of the international situation. Rather, it strikes us
as a localized event rooted in the stage of the Brazilian economy
and, in some sense, a promising sign of long-term health in a
capital-hungry market undergoing the tremendous stresses of
early-stage expansion. Second, the net effect on psychology will
be minimal. Asia's market psychology cannot depress effective
demand for Asian investment vehicles much further. Finally, the
effect on the United States will not influence the fundamentals
driving the American economy.

The true challenge posed by Brazil to Asia is very different from
those being discussed. By devaluing, Brazil is clearing the decks
of an essentially healthy economy. With this out of the way at
long last, the long-term investment atmosphere in Brazil actually
improves. This poses a challenge for Asia, simply because, in the
long run, the devaluation makes Brazil a more effective
competitor for scarce resources with Asia. This is the ultimate
problem. Brazil can work its way through its problems and come
out stronger. Asia, much further along on its economic cycle, has
deeper, structural challenges that are not going to be solved any
time soon.

Asia's inability to solve its problems contrasts sharply with
Brazil's ability to take steps that actually matter. This is why
Brazil is a challenge to Asia and not because there is a single,
generalized malaise in the world economy. Asia's problems are its
own. Frankly, events outside have little impact on the course of
its problems. In the short term, events in Brazil contribute to
market hysteria, but they should have no long-range effect. In
the long-term, Brazil may become more competitive, but that is
only because of Asia's own weaknesses. The Brazilian crisis does
not really increase our level of concern for Asia as we have been
and continue to be at a maximum level of concern. Brazil doesn't
change that at all. What we are seeing is that there really
isn't a single global economy. Rather, there are a series of
regional and national economies, linked in some ways, but with
very separate fates. What happens in Asia does not necessarily
effect the United States very much. What happens in Brazil has
little effect on what happens in Russia.

From a policy standpoint, this is extremely important. The
strengthening of multinational institutions such as the
International Monetary Fund is predicated on the idea that the
growing interdependence of the world means that events in one
part of the world endanger economic well-being in other parts of
the world in dramatically new and dangerous ways. If this
premise is true, then it follows that institutions need to be
created to prevent the spread of economic dysfunction. If, on
the other hand, the premise is untrue, then the creation of
stronger international institutions might be worse than the
disease. To be more precise, an IMF with greater power might
spread the contagion, by promulgating global monetary and
financial policies predicated on non-existent global crises.

We are fascinated at how not only the Brazilian crisis but also
other regional crises have been regionally contained. The
geography of economic crisis has not only challenged myths of
globalization and economies without borders, but also reinforced,
in our mind, the essentially national and regional character of
economic activity. The Japanese market fell nearly a quarter of
its value since July. The American market is higher than it was.
Economic life seems to have a national and regional cast rather
than a global one. Brazil has a crisis. Elsewhere, life goes on
at its own pace and direction. This is important news.


To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates,
sign up on the web at,
or send your name, organization, position, mailing
address, phone number, and e-mail address to

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:47 - ID#391172)
Yeah well, I wouln't have answered anybodies post on WJC but you. I "know" you from aways back, I used to be George till something happened to my computer. I am in fundemental agreement with you on " spiritual" affairs. Could be it's the most important aspect of our lives, indiviually and collectively. We may have a spiritual awakening as a race before too long ( gold could even go up ) , so far "spiritual affairs" have been ethnic and culturally orientated and have been the basis for as much conflict and hatred as anything. The next time around must be racially inclusive. Period

I've got Campbells tapes, # 3 is most interesting, ordination by experience as opposed to "social ordination". Clinton has social ordination, for what it's worth, power at least but futile without oreintation. Ever try " I Ching"?0

(Sun Jan 17 1999 19:51 - ID#219363)
For Brazil's Poor, Life Stays Hard
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil ( AP ) -- Brazil's decision to sharply devalue its currency was a shock to world markets but registered little more than a dull thud in the life of Paulo Januario's family. "My son is 16 years old, where is he going to find work?" Januario, 41, a security guard on Rio's poor north side asked on Saturday. "My problem isn't Brazil's economy, it's my own economy and how I cope with everyday life." Januario is among the two-thirds of Brazil's 160 million people earning up to 390 reals a month. It doesn't matter much to him that last week's devaluation means he earns 17 percent less in dollar terms -- $270 today as opposed to $325 a week ago. Like most Brazilians, he is unlikely to buy dollars as a hedge against inflation or to travel abroad.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 20:05 - ID#221227)
The Rigging of Wall Street
Great article in THE BULLETIN with Newsweek. Oz Jan 19.
The Rigging of Wall Street by Max Walsh.
"SHORT-TERM GAIN..Evidence shows that the US markets were effectively manipulated last year, however eventually all bubbles burst"

The article covers a lot of the stuff I have read here over the last year or so, including the Plung Protection Team. The last paragraph says;

"Eventually all bubbles burst. But,as Japan demonstrates, this can take longer than anyone expects. The Nikkei went above 39,000 before the bubble was pricked. Now it is trading 60% below that level. And as Japan also demonstrated, the longer the bubble inflates, the more painful the bust."

Well done to The Bulletin. It's about time the Aussie punters got a glimpse of the truth.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 20:07 - ID#219363)
Ethical Question
I've got a slightly off-topic question, it could relate to gold mining, but it doesn't have to. I know this question has been asked recently because of the globalization of production, but I'm guessing it was probably debated back in colonial times as well. If you're going into the business of making widgets you're going to need a number of resources, you might need petro, wood, natural gas, access to shipping, any number of things, and one of the things you're going to need is man-power. Logic dictates that you put your plant in the place where all of those things come together in the best way, cheap, an area not prone to warfare, etc. The question is, is it ethical to put a plant in a third-world nation and pay low wages to the people who live there, wages that are low by US standards, but possibly high in local standards. I mentioned to my girlfriend that a US business person could open a shop overseas and could pay people there 300$US a month, etc, and her Christian nature kicked in and she started saying that she couldn't believe that people take advantage of people like that. I wonder though. It's easy to say it's wrong when a plant is making money in the US and moves it's operations overseas to increase it's profit margins, though I'm not even sure that's a bad thing. It's much more difficult to say that a plant that couldn't exist in the US because of labor costs could operate with a profit if it were started overseas, that it couldn't be profitable unless labor costs were cheaper than in the US. Do overseas workers get excited by making more than their neighbors, even if it is much less than they make in the US ? Or are the capitalists wrong, should the US firms pay "fair" US wages to everyone in the world. I'm curious what you guys think.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 20:09 - ID#254288)
Be it printing money or making cars

The fiat's never say Die.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 20:26 - ID#233199)
Market Opinions Please
Better to go long MAR gold options Tuesday or short Mar SPX??

Best guess wins accolades from all...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 20:57 - ID#432148)
Challenge to willy-nilly globalization...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:03 - ID#391172)
Ethical question
Business which operates outside the US or any other nation should be required to pay a tariff determined on hte taxes and fees an indiginous buisness must pay.

That would help socialized countries protect themselves somewhat and would not inhibit commerce that much.

The best ethical standard I know is " Don't do to others what you not have done to yourself ". That way you can still kill somebody and not violate a high ethical standard, only it becomes a sticky wicket when you consider it throughly. But still possible. I for one will not give up that perogative of nature but only under the strictist ethical standards exercise it, I'm a safe guy. Almost.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:11 - ID#304282)
CPO's 19:20 Revelations being fulfilled?
NO man will be able to buy or sell w/o the mark of the beast. Thankfully the church will be raptured before this is fulfilled.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:17 - ID#219363)
Thanks for the response. It's a tough one to me with no obvious easy answer. Say you've got a bunch of un-employed folks in the Phillipines ( because you do ) and they don't make much money as a general rule ( in my book here it says miners make 2,986 Phillippine pesos or 114$US per month, teachers make 119$US per month ) . You're going to start a textile plant, you've already decided that. You calculate your overhead for purchasing and moving raw materials, shipping product, building the plant in both the US and the Phillipines, etc. It costs you more to ship products from that country to their market in the US, but most other things cost less. What is a "fair" wage for the workers in the Phillipines ? Is it their average for the industry, you are after all brining more jobs to that country, or is it higher than their average, double, triple their average, or is it the same wage you would pay in the US for similar work ? I know it's not what you'd pay for similar work in the US, because if it were you might as well just building your plant in the US and be done with it. Their are many disadvantages to building a plant overseas as well, the laws are different, currency fluctuations, etc, so the wages of your workers aren't the only concerns. When does a worker's wage and his or her ability to negotiate a position stop being their own responsbility and start being the employers ? A pure capitalist would say that he's in the business of business, and that a worker's position to negotiate his salary is his own problem, but we've all seen where that can lead. A capitalist would say "I'll pay X, take it or leave it. If you leave it, there are 100 guys standing behind you in line". It's a difficult question I think. I like what you said but that doesn't help set a number.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:19 - ID#187109)



go golF

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:24 - ID#288264)
Good post from S.I.
Have you seen ( either referenced here, or on newsstands ) the U. S. News and World Report stories this week?

Are you aware that these valuations of the so-called Internet stocks are beyond anything ever seen before in the United States stock markets, and that to find anything similar you have to go back to the South Sea Bubble of about 1720? To say this is simply to make a true statement, calmly--not rhetoric, exaggeration, over-excitement, panic,outrage, or a desire for publicity. History is being made, and the most important part is probably not by what's going on in the Senate. The end of the world is not at hand, but something very remarkable is happening in the economic arrangements of the United States.

The shame is that John Kenneth Galbraith, Professor of Economics at Harvard for many years and author of _The Great Crash_, is in his nineties and although he recognizes what's going on, is not listened to, even though he has pronounced on this. If the President were not so taken up with other things, he might be listening to Galbraith, among others, towards whom his political and economic upbringing dispose him.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:34 - ID#284255)
Cashless in 1999?>


Cory Hamasaki WRP #107

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:46 - ID#284255)
Cory Hamasaki WRP #108

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:50 - ID#219363)
Brazil Crisis Bad for US Automakers
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The currency crisis that hit Brazil last week means bad news for automakers such as General Motors and Ford, whose operations there are already suffering from a deep recession. But many financial companies like Citigroup may not fare as badly because they have trimmed back their exposure in Brazil following earlier upheavals in Asia and Russia. For U.S. companies that have Brazilian operations which export -- such as the appliance maker Whirlpool -- the crisis creates conflicting factors that make their outlook uncertain. Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, is in the midst of economic stagnation and high unemployment stemming partly from the government's policy of keeping interest rates a sky-high 30 percent to attract foreign investors. To help keep those investments stable, the country has been spending millions in dollar reserves to prop up the value of its currency, the real. But investors worried about Brazil's future have been lately been exiting the nation in droves, causing the real to plummet. On Friday, the government temporarily abandoned its unsuccessful support of the real, allowing it to fall even further.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:54 - ID#187109) worries.......

Ka mate!Ka mate! First 'twas death

ka ora! ka ora! But now 'tis life again

Tenei te tangata puhuruhuru, Behold the brave man

Nana nei tiki mai Who saved me and

Whakawhiti te ra! Caused the sun to shine again

Aue upane! Aue Kaupane! I ascend to freedom,

Aue upane,kaupane, Up and up

whiti te ra! Into the light of the day


says it all.....

WAY away...


don't you worry 'bout no FOOD POISONING........... ( never happened ) ................. ( the BOKS ) ................ ( uh uh ) .................. ( ugh ) ..... ( burP ) ...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:54 - ID#413109)
Just browsing
Check these out----

See what conclusions you draw.
The other day I called for a turn in the Nikkei, my second
correct call ( just bragging ) , however what's significant is
that many of the asian markets, and some others like "Brazil"
and other S.American markets, have had sizable corrections, and
even though many haven't yet tested the bottoms or even made bottoms
they look, at least to me, to have a better chance for future up
moves than say the US, and Canadian, and Australian, and European
markets, which to me, all look toppy.

This doesn't mean that those that have had corrections couldn't go
down further, but it seems a lot of the problems they face have
already been discounted by years of selling.

Intersting no?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:56 - ID#432148)
Becker on willy-nilly globalization...
We will not stand for this race to the bottom. Instead, we want a trading system that recognizes workers as central to the economy and allows people to earn enough to actually buy the goods they produce. NAFTA has never lived up to the promises made by its supporters, and the sad fact is that workers in all three countries are the losers. It is in defense of working people in all three countries  Canada and the United States, where we have members, and Mexico where we do not  that we take this action.

We believe we will succeed and, as a result, NAFTA will be off the books. When that day comes, we will work with Senators from both parties to fashion a hemispheric economic treaty that will serve the interests not just of Wall Street and the bond market, but of workers, their families and communities throughout the North American continent  in Canada, Mexico and the United States.


(Sun Jan 17 1999 21:57 - ID#187109)
you are wise man...
Date: Sun Jan 17 1999 21:54
Reify ( Just browsing ) ID#413109:
Copyright  1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Check these out----

(Sun Jan 17 1999 22:00 - ID#187109)
an EN ZED performed the HAKA.....
in front of me.... it was good...mates ( I still like MiKe SheLLer ) ................. ( metal tokens in transit ) ...



(Sun Jan 17 1999 22:08 - ID#187109)
go golF

(Sun Jan 17 1999 22:11 - ID#288264)
Vacation Y2K........Lets go!!
January 1, 2000

Dear Valued Employee:
Re: Vacation Pay

Our records indicate that you have not used any vacation time over the past
100 year ( s ) . As I'm sure you are aware, employees are granted 3 weeks of
paid leave per year or pay in lieu of time off. One additional week is
granted for every 5 years of service.

Please either take 9,400 days off work or notify our office and your next
pay cheque will reflect payment of $8,277,432.22 which will include all pay
and interest for the past 1,200 months.

Automated Payroll Processing.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 22:29 - ID#371380)
That Ken Raggio link is pretty out there. Maybe I am wrong and people have embedded chips in their hands to use to debit their accounts for groceries, but is seems pretty whacked to me. If I am right, it certainly does not lend credence to Y2K understanding.

Chicken man
(Sun Jan 17 1999 22:38 - ID#341297)
SPW1(bear trap)
Smell a bear trap in the gold pit...what investment firm recommmended gold last week ( goldman Sachs? ) .well any way..why are "they" pushing gold all of a sudden? the little guy can make a buck?...Ha!..give me a break..I think the projection was 5-9% other words $15 to 27 gain...hardly worth it...

Unless the big boys want the price to so one might ask...easy...get the little guy to buy it here...they will more than likely be the seller to you...they know that the little guy probably will not use a stop on the down they start beating the price down..and when the little guy throws the towel in and sells his losing position the stand there ready to buy it..

FWIW i bought my 300 mar calls plan is to take $20 and then buy Apr 300 puts or 5.25 silver puts...

One strange bird...chicken man..

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:07 - ID#290215)
How many airlines are going to be flying on New Years Eve ( y2k ) .
Just love to be able to get a seat on that Concorde and celebrate all those New Years Eves.
At $75.000. U.S. I hear they are sold out.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:08 - ID#20359)
Gulp and a puff for Drudge eh...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:09 - ID#284255)
You are so right there.
There are now so many sites popping up on Y2k and running with the thread that I'm almost sick of the subject.
It has not been beaten to death - rather drowned under the weight of all who are now taking the catchcry and expressing their opinion on what's going on.

And I guess it's going to get a lot wackier yet.

Time for a holiday - time out....

Saying Goodbye, and Good Riddance to Silicon Valley

Lurker 777
(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:15 - ID#317247)
Dont worry, be happy! (Bob Marley)
I have made my bet and have averaged all my gold Phillies in at $303.50 per oz . I have Dec 99 290 PUTS ( $6.50 per oz ) to cover my downside risk. Total cost of my REAL GOLD with PUT option is $310 per oz. and with AJPM paying $10 over spot for bullion coins my total downside Risk is about 3%.
BUT I am now doubling my PUT option position and buying DEC 99 270 PUTS ( $4.00 per oz. ) . For every $1 gold goes above $314 or below $270 I make $1, multiplied by more GOLD than in your wildest dreams. YES, I
AM ALL IN! Hey Realistic, Gold will see $199 or $399 in 99.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:18 - ID#371380)
Do you all think they would be spending so much money to fix the airlines if the only day to worry about was 01.01.00? If that was it, it would have been cheaper to declare it a holiday and lose the revenue. Then they could have just restarted the databases fresh for the new millenium with four integer year codes.

Theres more there. Why were programmers the first to sound the alarm by starting to prepare? I think of programers as sort of passive or managerial type people comfortable being employed in a large organization. What would make that personality type panic?

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:26 - ID#20359)
TheMissingLink, Namaste' gulp and a puff to excellent question and a most
valid point...yup...uh huh...

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:33 - ID#284255)
Skinny - not me....
Luxury lodges lure rich

The Rich -- and possibly some of the famous -- are being asked to spend
almost half a million dollars to enjoy themselves in luxury New Zealand
lodges to celebrate the new millennium.

Safehaven New Zealand http//, a group of 20 of the
country's luxury retreats, aims to provide "oases of tranquillity" for
overseas guests as 1999 gives way to the year 2000.

The most expensive month-long lodge stay is being advertised for US$252,000
at a castle-like luxury lodge in New Zealand's Bay of Plenty, where a
number of internationally-known film-stars have stayed. Most lodges are
charging US$208,000 for the month's stay.

The offer to stay in the lodges from late December to late January is being
advertised through overseas companies and the Internet.

The group's New Zealand spokesman Ross Stewart
said a number of wealthy Americans were concerned about the year 2000
because it would be mid-winter. They were worried there might be crime and
civil disorder if the power went off.

"In New Zealand, it's not such a problem. It's warm, mid-summer, and if
the power goes off, it doesn't matter. People can pull out a barbecue."

As well as providing a "safe, secure and pleasant environment" for high
profile figures ( including international celebrities ) wanting to escape the
winter, guests can remain in contact with business associates.

Stewart said the appeal lay in the uncertainty of the millennium bug which
potentially could cause world-wide computer problems. He said a month was
a good length of time for holiday-makers to relax "while the millennium
crisis is taken care of".

For their money, guests will get peaceful surroundings including farmland,
heated swimming pools and lavish suites, along with gourmet cooking. ALL
meals and top New Zealand wines are included.

One major lodge owner, who has hosted 14 stars at New Zealand lodges, said
they relished fresh vegetables and lamb without fancy sauces. He serves
only local wines -- the most expensive being the 1996 Stoneleigh
Chardonnay, which won a supreme award in England, at US$37 ( NZ$70 ) per bottle.

"What these people want is home cooking with fresh vegetables and racks of
lamb fresh from the pan to the table. It's so relaxed. One of the stars
loved to watch me cook while she sipped cups of tea," he said.

This lodge, built on a bluff among 20 hectares of pasture and forests
dotted with deer, sheep and cattle, has commanding views of the Pacific
Ocean. It has a private helipad, in-house art gallery of New Zealand
artists, private lawn tennis court, library, a water spring and a private
trout stream.

The lodge offers candlelit five-course dinners specialising in fresh
seafood, lamb, venison and wines. Picnic hampers for special outings to
secluded spots would also be on the menu.

At another, three-year-old, country retreat, local products are again on
top of the wine list. Palliser Estate wines are priced at NZ$49 ( US$26 ) a
bottle and Te Mata Estate's Awatea Cabernet Merlot at NZ$55 ( US$30 ) .

The owners and hosts said the farmed game cervena [venison] served with
quince was one of its most mouth-watering delights. "We're here to spoil
people," she said. "We don't have any set timetable. The whole day is
structured around the guests."

At a major lodge in Canterbury in New Zealand's South Island high country,
Marlborough and Canterbury wines dominate but there is still Moet et
Chandon champagne at US$46 ( NZ$85 ) a bottle.

"One of our famous dishes is Japanese-style cooked venison," says the
owner, who runs the lodge with his wife.

Is it worth it?

Stewart "They have the entire place to themselves, their friends and
family for a whole month -- at a third of the price of something similar in
the United States."

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:35 - ID#169332)
@Mike Sheller -- re your "impeachment" post
I appreciate your statement of the case for impeachment. It is civilized and reasonable. To have not carried forward with the impeachment process would have been a step toward fascism, totalitarianism, statism etc.
We value, quite rightly, our principle of equal rights before the law. It's establishment was earned by sacrifice and effort. Let us remember that the principle of justice has always been present in some form in all civilized cultures. The notion that we are superior to past cultures, have "progressed," is based on ignorance and, worse, denial of the violence and barbarism that has afflicted all contemporary societies. The destructive use of science and technology has had tragic consequences, which need not have been so if our quality of civilized culture had risen and not declined. The nightmare continues, and the talk of the global village more often is manifested as global the name of "progress". Freedom is a daily choice. Progress can be up as well as down.

Compared to the governed, the leaders and governments are largely out of touch or, for various motives, committed to maintaining the status quo. Individuals and groups are more open to the real needs we face ; and are working to reform their societies everywhere. It does not seem unlikely to suppose that our nation will be reorganized radically: the infrastructure and the institutions are failing, and the will and capability of a centralized government to maintain and reform them is questionable. Perhaps a division into relatively independent regions, as groups of states that have common interests and economies, will offer a better basis for rebuilding. ( This has been debated in private and governmental think tanks for many years, as one of many possible prospects. )

I suggest we view this impeachment in the context of who we are and where we are. Presidents have been, always, symbolic figures, made-up images . We elect what we project, what we want. For many years we have been electing politicians who will tell us only what we want to hear, not to be responsible for the welfare of the nation. Lie and you get elected. Tell the truth and get lost. No matter that our generally ill-conceived foreign policy has made us vulnerable to severe setbacks. Or, that our domestic and economic policy promises a health care disaster, an educational wasteland and a chaos of default and bankruptcy. We will remember, one way or another, that a nation cannot survive without patriotism, and that we must pay for it.

Let us educate our children in the meantime. All cultures have known and taught that "we are all connected." Only recently, a few hundred years, have some civilizations forgotten that everything is related: plants, minerals, animals, the planets, the stars. The rational mind cannot perceive this: the conscious mind ( and the undeveloped child's mind ) does. Let us relearn consciousness, and not pervert our children's development of consciousness. If right relations among various countries ( economic, political, etc ) do not develop; if right relations among the different ( and evolving ) kingdoms of nature and the cosmos are not practiced, the human race will cease to have a reason to be. We all know this, really. We don't remember. If we are waiting for a Savior to come and sort things out, we aren't thinking very well! We have had the message, over and over. Maybe it won't require many individuals to let go the nightmare and learn to live in the present for many to begin. Just a few relaxed, balanced individuals who don't need to have all the answers or feel right all the time.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:44 - ID#284255)
TheMissingLink - it's because they know......better than anyone else.. ask Cory????
Another Myth, Balkanization of the Power Grid

The patronizing demeanor of the industry public statements via NERC really turns me off. They insult our intelligence. Perhaps for the next report, they can get President Clinton to appear on their behalf on TV. He can look into the camera, wag his finger at us and say, "Now you listen to me..."

Betting on low-tech gizmos, just in case

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:50 - ID#367411)
From Bill Murphy
Apologies to all for the length of this post, but I think it's worth making available:

Le Metropole>

January 17, 1999

Le Metropole Inc.
1079 Ocean Boulevard
Rye, New Hampshire, 03870

For Immediate Release


Bill Murphy
Le Metropole Inc.
603 433 9389

Peabody, Tice and Murphy Predict Coming Chaos in the Financial Markets

Three of the prominent contributors to have issued commentary, alerting Le Metropole members to severe financial market stress that looms on the very near horizon.

Charles Peabody is one of the most highly regarded banking analysts on Wall Street and is often quoted by Alan Abelson, Editor in Chief of Barrons. Peabody, in his recently posted commentary at the Hemingway Table:

" As for the fundamental themes, I shifted my emphasis earlier last fall when the Fed began to ease in an effort to bail out the capital markets and when the world's government bodies set out to rescue Brazil. As I state back then, significant changes in government policies will create unintended consequences and it is our job as analysts to anticipate when the next sea change will be"c..After a brief Fed-induced rally, bank stocks are likely to resume their descentc.I see no value in bank stocks and at current levels and expect at least two more years of price weakness and 60% to 80% of downside will unfold in the form of a CRASH".

David Tice is often seen on CNBC, articulating the bear case. He has a vast array of institutional clients and also is the portfolio manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, which was the number one performing mutual fund in the United States in the third quarter of last year. Tice, in his recently posted commentary at the Dos Passos Table:

"Recent data provide clear evidence that Japan and Asian economies are still in depression, Latin America is quickly sinking into recession and acute financial stress, European ( and particularly emerging East European economies ) economies are slowing rapidly, and the American manufacturing and agricultural sectors are faltering".

"The reality remains that the global crises has made it very close to home just as we have reached the climax of an unprecedented speculative mania and economic bubble. We are in the very early stages of a Latin American crises that will prove much more troubling for the US financial markets and economy than the bulls believe today".

Bill Murphy was written up in the Wall Street Journal in August 1988: "Trader Bill Murphy's Correct Call On Rise in Price of Copper Pays Off". He also thinks we are headed for financial market turmoil and believes that after many years of benign neglect, both the gold and silver markets are poised for dramatic bull market moves.

It is his opinion, the gold market has been controlled by "officialdom and their henchmen" for some time, but that there are very recent signs that times could be changing. In his commentary at the James Joyce Table, Murphy has presented a great deal of anecdotal evidence over a period of time that Goldman Sachs ( Secretary Treasury Rubin's former firm ) , for many reasons, has led a price capping attack on gold along with other New York financial institutions.

The first sign of a change of this environment was the recent break out in silver. Second, is a recent Goldman Sachs foreign exchange department release predicting a " a gold breakout". Third, is a Goldman Sachs conference call calling for a major fall in the dollar. Fourth, is the urging by U.S. officials to the Brazilians to devalue their currency after congratulating the Chinese for not doing so.

To review all this commentary:

January 15, 1998 - Spot Gold $286.90 up 10 cents - Spot Silver $5.12 down 4.5 cents

Special Commentary

We have identified Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan as the "Leaders of the Gold Selling Pack". We also believe, that for various reasons, U S officialdom and some highly visible financial entities have orchestrated the capping of the gold price to keep it below $300.

For months we have documented anecdotal evidence for you that this is so.
Recently, Goldman Sachs replaced John Corzine as its CEO. A new regime was installed. One of our more plugged in and astute members suggested to me at the time that there would be changes in Goldman policies. He told me right after the change of leadership was made to also look for a change in their gold shorting policies at some point, because if the gold loans are as dangerously large as we think they are, the newly appointed Goldman regime would not want to be caught heavily short in a gold buying panic. We have been on that alert. Until late yesterday we heard nothing, and saw nothing, but more Goldman selling.

We also suggested to you that if JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs were going to try and extricate themselves from their very large gold short positions ( along with some others in the "Crises Management Team" ) , they might first do everything they could to attract shorts to the market, so that when they wanted to start buying, the price would be a good deal lower and there would be willing sellers around that they could buy size from.

Then late yesterday, one of our members sent us the following:

"In a surprising departure from the brokerage community's neutral to bearish near-consensus on the future price of gold, Goldman Sachs' investment bank released its weekly FX report predicting that "the spot price of gold bullion is poised for an upside breakout." Part of the reason for such a prediction is their belief that the Australian dollar will rise sharply against the U.S. dollar, as it is close to breaking above a downward sloping trendline. A strengthening Aussie dollar will make Australian gold producers less eager to sell gold forward, as they will receive diminished U.S. dollar returns"

Midas did not know what to make of it. Was it a planted comment as a result of even the Financial Times knowing how short they were? Did they want to deflect some attention away from their shorting? It was time to do some checking around, so I called one of our Wall Street wizards, a Le Metropole member. It just so happened he was on a Goldman Sachs conference call. What a coincidence!

To my surprise and delight, the gist of the conference call is that Goldman Sachs said today that the dollar has to go down and go down a good deal. They see a good chance of our trade deficit ballooning to $20 billion per month at the rate things are going. The Brazilian devaluation and their allowing their currency, the Real, to float, can only exasperate the situation. A Brazilian soybean farmer now receives 30% more for his soybeans than a US farmer does. Thus, he can sell his soybeans to end users more cheaply than the US farmer can. This is not a happy day for US farmers as they are big losers - his soybeans are just not as competitive. US exports of soybeans have to suffer. It is not a happy day for other types of US merchants. Profit margins will be squeezed.
And this is the first week of the devaluation. The Thai Bhat, Indonesian Rupiah and Russian Ruble, all continued to devalue after their first round of devaluations. What if the Brazilian Real goes down 50 to 100% against the dollar? "Beggar Thy Neigbor" is now in full bloom. How does Mexico compete against Brazil? By the way, the Mexican Peso slid about 6% this week. How about US companies that have to compete against Mexican ones?

Then, there is the minor problem of Brazil's US demoninated debt which I understand was $275 billion last week. That has to be paid in dollars. The debt service went up 30% in a week. Two Brazil states are not paying their own government. Russia defaulted.

What if Brazil HAS to?

We, the US, are a debtor nation already and our debt is growing by leaps and bounds. Debt has to be serviced. According to Goldman, the servicing of our own debt is going to be a problem unless something is done about reducing it. Our trade deficit has to be reduced. It is already too high - $20 billion per month is unacceptable. The dollar must be depreciated to reduce this deficit.

Goldman Sachs is Secretary Treasury Rubin's former firm. You can be sure that if Goldman Sachs is putting out this commentary, it has Mr. Rubin's blessing, and most likely, his encouragement. The best way to start the selling of the dollar is to let the hedge funds and Wall Street insiders know what the next deal is. If I know this now, you can be sure the Wall Street big guns do too. The wink is on.

This also makes sense because you have the Japanese and Euro crowd calling for more stability in the exchange rates among the dollar, yen and euro. Maybe our Treasury officials and Fed are considering just that. If so, the dollar must be trashed first, according to Goldman. It must be trashed enough to erase our monthly trade deficit. Then, perhaps some acceptable range for the dollar, yen and euro can be structured.

This should be a very bullish development for the gold market. First, our assessment that Goldman and JP Morgan did whatever they could to break gold down so that they could buy gold in size at favorable prices, may be correct. Second, there should be some substantial gold buying coming from Goldman very soon. That should attract other "informed" buying. Maybe that is why the XAU is so steady. Third, it may encourage the Asian official sector to step up to the plate and buy many hundreds of tonnes of gold.
Why not? You can be sure that if I have knowledge of the Goldman Sach's conference call, they surely do. The Asian's dollar reserves are very large and their gold reserves are very small. Why not switch some of those dollar reserves into gold reserves - especially when you desire to have the Yen acquire reserve currency status. The greater gold backing the better. And why make 5% in US bonds if the currency is going to go down 15% from here. That is a negative 10% return. Worse, if the dollar is headed south, then the prices of bonds are probably headed south too. That represents another loss. It only makes sense that this "outed" information will bring the Asian official sector to the gold pits.

The Midas quotes- "Got them right where we want them" and " Fasten Your Seatbelts" are beginning to resonate. Up up and away for gold and silver. The bugler is blowing a bullish gold and silver tune. Tally Ho, Ray.

(Sun Jan 17 1999 23:53 - ID#284255)
Irrational exuberance - email chatter
There is fixed, and then there is tested.

It seems to me, based on conversations that I have had with active Y2K
project managers, that changing the code, some form of regression testing,
and putting the code back into production is considered, "fixed."

When I inquire about specific Y2K aged data testing, infrastructure
( Operating Systems, compilers, hardware, embedded devices, databases,
networks, etc ) testing, I get a wobbly response about that being done in
1999. As if this testing was extra or outside the definition of fixed for Y2K.

It reminds me of the old saying, "Declare victory and go home." Much of the
hard part of testing seems like it is still waiting out there in 1999. From
the reports on how much budget has been spent, it seems like much of the
work is being condensed without regard for how hard this comprehensive test
effort requires.

"The amount of testing you do is directly proportional to the time remaining."

This is why I am increasingly skeptical about the progress reports we are
getting from all sectors. I think when we inquire as to the relative
progress of Y2K projects out there, we must be specific about what the
organization's definition of "fixed" truly means. In my experience, the
hardest parts of the Y2K process is the preparing and execution of the
baseline, followed by the integration and testing of the "completed" code in
a Y2K-ready production infrastructure. It is at these two points where the
rubber meets the road.

Insufficient baseline preparation cannot be made up for in Y2K testing
because by definition, the baseline cannot be presented for comparison.
Putting code back into production after remediation and regression testing
only proves that it still works in the current time period. Some of this
type of thinking may be why we are not hearing much about 1999/01/01
failures. The code still has not been fully exercised in a "cross
millennium" condition where the system date has been set to, or moved ahead
of, 1999/12/31.

Additionally, code that has gone back into production "early" violates the
existing baseline and therefore requires some form of re-execution of the
baseline to capture changes being made to the code that will be later tested
for Y2K issues.

Only after executing aged data and infrastructure compliant testing should
there be any sense of accomplishment in Y2K. Anything less is "irrational