"....and gold shall rise, phoenix like, from the ashes..."

....good as gold in god's zone.

"She wrote me a letter, and I'm going home,
gonna buy me a ticket on a fast train,
maybe get on a aeroplane..."

Hello Kitco, you bunch of golden, shaggy, deadbeats, a tokin' an' pokin', fun at the world.

U.S. folly launches new missile race

By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
Intense efforts by the United States to prevent the spread of medium and
long-range missiles around the globe have failed. In the past two months, a
number of Third World nations have broken out of America's control regime, and
are rapidly deploying missiles capable of carrying nuclear, chemical, or biological
warheads over long distances - potentially even to North America.
According to U.S. intelligence, North Korea, which is supposed to be starving, is preparing to
test a second, multi-stage, medium range ballistic missile ( MRBM ) of the Taepo-dong series.
North Korea first tested this new system last fall, sending a missile soaring over Japan.
This crude but effective act of intimidation and blackmail provoked enormous consternation
and alarm in Japan, which suddenly found itself naked and vulnerable in the face of a potential
nuclear, biological, or chemical attack by the dangerously unpredictable North Koreans.
Yet the mere suggestion Japan might consider participating in a theatre anti-missile system
being developed by the U.S. produced howls of outrage from China, and the usual tirades
about "rebirth of Japanese militarism." Tokyo ran for cover.
China, which had lobbed missiles at Taiwan to discourage or intimidate the island's
independence-seekers, warned it would not tolerate deployment by Japan of defensive or
offensive strategic systems.
Meanwhile, it was recently revealed India is preparing to test an improved version of its
2,000-km range Agni MRBM. The new system, Agni-ER ( extended range ) , will be able to
carry a nuclear warhead 3,700 km, according to Indian defence officials, who claim the
Agni-ER will give India "critical leverage" over China. Data from U.S. spy satellites suggest
India is preparing a March test from its new missile range in the Bay of Bengal.
The Agni-ER has set off alarm bells across Asia. Pakistan, already well within range of India's
present Prithvi and Agni systems, is racing to deploy its own 1,500-km range MRBM Ghauri
missile. China is warning that India's Agni-ER represents a major threat, and a dangerous
escalation of the Asian arms race. Recent reports say China has decided to target more of its
nuclear-tipped MRBMs on northern India. Statements by India's defence minister that China
now constitutes "the main threat to India" have further heightened tensions in Asia.

Growing alarm
India's two-stage Agni-ER, and North Korea's Taepo-dong series, have also provoked
growing alarm in Washington. Some American experts believe the new Taepo-dong may soon
develop the range to hit U.S. bases in Okinawa, Hawaii, and Alaska. Addition of a third stage
on the Indian Agni-ER, or Taepo-dong, would eventually give these systems the capability to
strike the continental United States - and Canada - with nuclear warheads.
A recent classified U.S. defence department report concludes American aerospace firms,
notably Hughes, provided China with advanced missile launch and guidance technology that
may greatly improve the range, reliability and accuracy of China's small number of
intercontinental missiles ( ICBMs ) .
This incredible act of folly was the result of White House pressure on the U.S. commerce
department to release top secret data to China in return for large financial contributions by
mysterious Asian donors to President Bill Clinton's re-election campaign. Lenin was right when
he observed that capitalists would sell communists the rope with which to hang them.
While the potential strategic threat to North America grows, the U.S. Congress continues to
dither over development of a comprehensive, national anti-missile defence system. Congress
readily provided Israel with $1 billion to develop its Arrow anti-missile system, now in initial
deployment phase, but it has so far declined to fund an anti-missile defence for the United
States.

Enormous expense
Congress' reluctance stems in part from the enormous expense and technological problems of
defending even part of North America from ICBM attack. A second major factor is the
long-standing agreement with the Soviet Union, and now Russia, that neither side will deploy a
comprehensive anti-ballistic missile defence. Renunciation of this pact would very likely
undermine, if not kill, the series of strategic and conventional arms reduction agreements
between the two powers.
Russia has recently protested U.S. development of a theatre defence system against tactical
missiles, claiming this program could quickly be upgraded to a strategic defence umbrella that
would threaten the nuclear arms balance, and ignite a new strategic arms race.
The Russians are probably correct, and they certainly don't have the money to embark on a
new, hugely costly weapons race, or the deployable technology to sustain it. But the U.S. must
soon address the question of its growing vulnerability to non-traditional rivals. China and India
are far more a threat to one another than to the United States, yet in this world of nasty
surprises, their potential cannot be ignored or discounted. North Korea poses a very real,
urgent danger to both the U.S. and Asia.
The U.S. recently bombed Iraq's legal, short-range missile production plants to prevent
possible development of a medium-range system capable of reaching Israel. Then why does the
U.S. not attack North Korea's vastly more dangerous strategic missile program before it can
menace North America? Just as Israel destroyed Iraq's main nuclear reactor in 1981.
This is an extremely dangerous precedent, to be sure, but we are living in increasingly
dangerous times.

I bought The Brazil Fund on Fri ( BZF ) . I know that several good money mgrs have'nt given up on Brazil e.g. Mark Mobius. Brazil has many very good Cos that are well managed & profitable & have little debt. BZF's price-to-book is .4. Compare that to dell at 50.

I'm betting that somehow Brazil will get back on track. If things do deteriorate further, we have Allan the Printer on our side.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Rudiger Dornbusch, famed for predicting the Mexican peso crash in December 1994 and long a foe of Brazil's controlled currency regime, recommended a currency board system.

``I think there are only two ways out of the Brazilian crisis,'' Dornbusch told Argentine daily Clarin in an interview published Sunday.

``The first one is President ( Fernando Henrique Cardoso ) announcing this week a spectacular fiscal plan including instant privatization of all there is still pending for sale, and the other one is a currency board,'' he said.

Dornbusch said a currency board, or convertibility system, ''would unleash euphoria in Latin America.''

In a currency board system, monetary policy is effectively governed by the amount of foreign currency reserves at the central bank. This takes control of interest rates away from the central bank and indirectly forces the government toward sound macroeconomic policies like balanced accounts in order to draw foreign currency into the country.

Brazil spent about $30 billion to keep the real in its trading bands since September, when Russia's devaluation spread turmoil through the world. It is believed to have about $40 billion left, including $9 billion in international loans.

Other economists said the government should stick with a floating real and use fiscal reform as the new anchor of economic stability, despite having struggled to approve key cost-cutting measures over the last four years.

``The prevailing view in Wall Street and in Washington is that the Brazilians don't want to do their homework,'' Edmar Bacha, one of the architects of the strong real policy and now an investment banker in New York, told newspaper Estado de Sao Paulo. ``Congress must speed up voting on the fiscal and other reforms that are outstanding.''

Votes in Congress on key cost-cutting measures were due to begin Tuesday.

Gold/Silver backed....

Ka mate!Ka mate! First 'twas death

ka ora! ka ora! But now 'tis life again

Tenei te tangata puhuruhuru, Behold the brave man

Nana nei tiki mai Who saved me and

Whakawhiti te ra! Caused the sun to shine again

Aue upane! Aue Kaupane! I ascend to freedom,

Aue upane,kaupane, Up and up

whiti te ra! Into the light of the day


EB..... my eyes were opened by thee!

Got to replace Saddam. Going to head off deflation at the pass. The U.S. military/industrial complex will ensure that the S&P keeps growing at 20%
indefinitely. Well, O.K., we may have a few 50% declines.

TOKYO, Jan 18 ( AFP ) - The dollar slid against the yen in Tokyo
on Monday as investors took profits on the greenback, worried about
the spread of a new international economic crisis, dealers said.
The dollar was trading at 113.43-45 yen at 11:00 a.m. ( 0200 GMT )
after hitting a high of 114.55 yen. It was still down from 113.99
yen in New York late Friday.

hmmmm....did anybody in Japan vote for Mr.Summers to spend their money?
Wouldn't Merkans be pretty pissed if BOJ told congress how to spend taxes?....Do unto others.....anyone for dollar hegemony?
US bankers far exceed their mandate......in fact they never had one.

TOKYO, Jan 18 ( AFP ) - US Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence
Summers has warned a senior Japanese banking official that the
country's banks must ask for larger handouts of public money than
planned, reports said Monday.
In a letter to Hakuo Yanagisawa, head of Japan's Financial
Reconstruction Commission, Summers said Japanese banks have too
little capital, the Tokyo Shimbun and Nihon Keizai Shimbun said.
Under bank reforms passed last October banks here have been
encouraged to ask for injections of taxpayers' money to help them
write off bad loans and push up their dwindling capital.
Fifteen of the top banks have said they will ask for up to six
trillion yen ( 53 billion dollars ) . But Summers suggested 20 trillion
yen would be needed, the Tokyo Shimbun said.

This is going to be fun to watch.
Everybody wants currency controls. except USA.
According to www.mises.org commentary this is because the current mechanism allows US to export its inflation - currency controls and inflation being closely related.

WASHINGTON, Jan 16 ( AFP ) - Brazil is likely to let the value of
its currency continue to float in the free market, it emerged as the
country's president and central bank chief met with IMF officials
here this weekend.
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso believed that the decision
on Friday to let the real float without government intervention was
"very correct," one Brazilian minister said.
Cardoso "does not forsee any special changes in the area of
exchange rates," Telecommunications Minister Pimenta da Veiga added
Saturday.

kiwi
RU coming home? Let's have a Steinie, or a Mac's Gold on your way through Auckland. Praps Lefty Kiwi would like to join us.

The Rest of the world is crazy, mate, plum crazy.


You've got us going, mate, posting the haka again.

Kiwi
It's getting cheaper to live in Godzone, we had, ahhem, negative inflation in CPI In last 1/4. {Why can't the say deflation?} [CPI= Consumer Price Index]
vNEW ZEALAND: NZ INFLATION FLAT IN '98, Q4
SHOWS UNEXPECTED FALL. 22:22 GMT
From - REUTERS: Subject - NZBusNews: Date - 1999-01-17

WELLINGTON, Jan 18 ( Reuters ) - New Zealand December
quarter inflation figures on Monday came in much lower than
analysts had expected, with the headline Consumer Price
Index ( CPI ) falling 0.8 percent for the quarter, and CPI
excluding credit services ( CPIX ) falling 0.1 percent.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/Detail.cfm?ID=1162511&Page=2512

Sportsfans
BLACK. BLACK. BLACK.
http://www.nzrugby.com/nzrfu/Pages/NZRU/Allblacks/abhomesplash.htm

even the currency blind economeisters can recognise.

It disturbs me that only one nation ( Malayasia ) has leadership with the basic logic skills to percieve what is happening.

By sucking on the tit of US dollar reserves these countries stupidly import US inflation causing ruin in their own countries and sustaining the boom in the US.

There is only one obvious option, replace dollar reserves with gold.

When this point is reached, gold will go through US$1000 with ease and the US will face a depression like never before. This present US "miracle" boom has clearly been at the expense of many other nations and when the US dollar reserves are repatriated, the US economy will implode like the rotten shell game it is, and in conjuction with the ill-will of the used and abused nations US will not be popular ( bankers particularly ) .

At this point I fully expect the moneyed-media propaganda machine to go into overdrive and set to the task playing the violin strings of the Merkan sheople, and cook up "...one damn fine cause to go to WAR for all things that are good and apple pie..." and all that...you know the drill.

Gullibility is an affliction of the well-fed uneducated.

good and cold...sounds all-right....Sept.-Oct for good, sometime before for a visit p'raps.

What's the deal with the NZ Reserve Bank...do they have any real reserves...gold that is?
I emailed them but didn't get ( or expect ) a response.

I fear they maybe on the same hare-brain scheme that US has been doling out along with the burgers, fries 'n coke.....you buy our debt and we'll sell your souls to Goldman Sachs.

kiwi
remember the Think BIg Projects of Piggy Muldoon? Them and the Borrowing to pay for National Super got us into debt with the IMF.

kiwi
When I was talking to RBNZ a year or so ago, I asked them what would happen if there was deflation, I was met with dumb silence.

Our reserves are, as best as I remember, a mixture of currencies of our trading partners, that probably means Yen, Rupiah, Remimbi, Ringitt and Aussie Pesos.

YEah, you betta get hear before I buy all the gold. I figure that Nick@C has more gold than the RBNZ.

Just talked to Lefty, he's looking forward to a cold beer with you too, mate.

I have been talking to Aurator and understand from your previous posts that you are in Thailand , I would be grateful if you could Email me
at midas@pin.co.nz I would like to pick your brains about
something you maybe able to help me with .

Thankyou

Brian

Kiwi sez -"By sucking on the tit of US dollar reserves these countries stupidly import US inflation causing ruin in their own countries and sustaining the boom in the US."

Well, it's about time people starting realizing this. It become
obvious, I thought, when the Turkish stock market blew up shortly
after the Mexican peso meltdown in '94. The U.S. is blowing up
country after country to preserve its irrational economic beliefs.

That was sort of the point of the post I made a few days ago, i.e.
Rome receiving tribut from her conquered terror-tories. The U.S.
has become a plundering nation, not even any lipgloss on it now.

I'm not surprised that Russia, China and India are pursuing an
Axis-Powers-Like agreement to act against my country.

Big debts, huh?.....no gold then I suppose.

Now I wonder, if the US is willing to trade their debt for others gold, perhaps we could trade our Kiwi debt paper ( backed by good kiwi honour ) for their gold?

Seems fair to me, we give them our debt paper, they give us the gold to back our currency......they don't want the gold anyway, it's a relic, it doesn't perform economically, rah-rah-rah.....

Isn't it wondrous the many uses given to word "economic" these days.
Economic = efficient n'est-ce pas?

Centralised banking is then the epitomy of uneconomic activity, as proven by "communist" Soviet Union.

Beddy-byes...morning all up on top of the world....

did you know that when viewed from above the South pole the earth turns clockwise, but when viewed from over the North pole it turns anti-clockwise?....wierd isn't it?

In NZ therefore we are approaching the 2nd millenium BC...... ( not slick! )

Like water down a plug-hole
So are the days of our lives

Kiwi
Had to look at my globe for that one, my buckmister-fuller-livingry-picture-grocking didn't help me. Thank you for the flash of comprehension that blazed across the scorched sahara of my mind.

Which does water go down a plug'ole in your dunny?

And which way does the water go down the dunny at the equator?

Ane which way does the dollar go down the dunny?

Tuesday Jan 19, 1999 will be a big day. Maybe the big day. It's the day we settle the Clinton question. His State of the Union address, and the reaction to it, will make clear if he is going to stay or go. Once that is settled, the markets will be more free to reassert their natural course. Tomorrow, the markets begin to face up to problems long swept under the rug. Examples would include Latin American debt, Dow mania, and a growing number of antagonistic nuclear powers. Here goes-- stocks and bonds get hit for better than 10%, and Gold gains $15, by Jan 20.

When viewed from where I'm sitting it just sort of sits still. It's pretty neat, this big star goes across the sky every few hours, and water falls from the sky sometimes. One time not very long ago it all froze on the trees and was real pretty for a while, but the star melted it.

I wish I'd studied to be an economist - then again not...
But could someone with some background in this area analyse the following....

If defacto reserve currency dominance is allowing US to export inflation, WHAT SHORT TERM steps might the US next move to, to further its interests without having to continue to support the IMF in its repeated bailout-currency devaluation remedies - which other players in the world are getting wise to.

I'd like to think we might all go GOLD backed but cynically doubt it short term. But correct anticipation of the next move ( temporarily suspending our goldbug idealism ) would be profitable. What can they do SHORT of capitulation to fundamental laws of economy ? Where next ?

How are they going, ultimately, to stave of massive repatriation of US$ funds from the rest if the world if this farce continues ? With its inflationary effects : ) ( love it ! )

Will the Euro encourage/attract flight from other emerging markets - seen as too risky given the IMF-Keynsian regime in place ? Isn't that what the Euro is really about and thus understandably what a mooted Asian currency is similarly about ? Or are they pissing in the wind because their currency isn't backed by a coherent set of political ideologies - 10% plus unemployment in Europe is endemic....bunch of socialists....

But between now and then ?

And YES - as I ponder things, I have to conclude that the whole Clinton/Rubin/Greenspan thang is inextricably linked - that his 30% possibility of demise just might lead to a denouement.

Short of a nice little Middle East war, or Y2K woes, to cover up their collective hubris... what else in the coming months ? What beat does the clock tick to ?

Comments per-lease !

You blokes down under just don't have the picture. You go to your local bank and ask them to loan you some gold.................. ( ;-}

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Stock markets in Asia opened with a roar today, making sharp gains after Wall Street rebounded last week and fears of a financial meltdown in Brazil eased. Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore and Manila surged within minutes of opening today, though much of the early gains in some markets evaporated as the session continued.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0o.htm

BRASILIA, Brazil ( AP ) -- Brazil's decision last week to stop propping up its overvalued currency was a step toward overcoming a financial crisis that has overpowered the economy since August. The next step comes today, when the Brazilian government is expected to say whether it will continue to allow its currency -- the real -- to trade openly on foreign exchange markets. The Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper reported that the government will allow the real to float in relation to the dollar on a long-term basis, following the market's positive reaction to Friday's announcement that the government was abandoning temporarily its defense of the real. The report could not be confirmed. But The Washington Post reported in today's editions that "Brazilian sources" also said the government will allow the real to float.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0m.htm

about....US dollar hegemony.
Interesting question: what's next?
Last year, Rubin has repeatedly said he wants a high US$. This policy has ruined the Asian economies, but it has helped to keep inflation low in the US. Now, the Rubin-AG crowd seems to having understood that they ruin the world with this aggressive policy. So, what's next?

From the viewpoint of the "financial oligarchy" they could now do the exact opposite: devalue the dollar relative to the rest of the world. For the financial rulers of the world, I think it doesn't really matter. What matters to them is to rely on a direction and to know the direction well in advance. Then they can play the dollar north as well as the dollar south direction to their own advantage. This volatility game can proceed to a certain point. What then: they schedule the crash. And by knowing in advance they play the crash to their advantage.

Edward Griffin writes in his famous book, "The Creature from Jekyll Island" about the 1929 events, in the chapter "The Great Duck Dinner":

"Advance Warning for members only
Immediately after the meetings, the monetary scientists began to issue warnings to their colleagues in the financial fraternity to get out of the market. On February 6," ( i.e.,1929 ) ..."the Federal Reserve issued an advisory to its member banks to liquidate their holdings in the stock market. The following month, Paul Warburg gave the same advice in the annual report to the stockholders of his International Acceptance Bank. He explained the reason for his advice:
'If the orgies of unrestrained speculation are permitted to spread, the ultimate collapse is certain not only to affect the speculators themselves, but to bring about a general depression involving the entire country.'.....
John D. Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan, Joseph P. Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, Henry Morgenthau, Douglas Dillon - the biographies of all these Wall Street giants at that time boast that these men were 'wise' enough to get out of the stock market just before the Crash. And it is true. Virtually all of the inner club was rescued.... Wisdom, apparently, was greatly affected by whose list one was on."

Griffin also emphasizes that the general public was told at the same time that everything was honky-dory, just as the media do it now.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=3mm

Friendly chart - price and both averages converging at today's price level of 9750. Have to go with price action away from the moving averages, especially if one is not already fully invested.

__
_______________________________________________________________________
FishNet: Internet service for business and ministry http://www.fni.com/

*********************************************************
Y2kWatch News - Information for Education and Preparation
---------------------------------------------------------
Visit http://Y2kWatch.com/ January 18, 1998
*********************************************************

Dear Y2k Weatherman,

60 Minutes recently featured a lead story on a secret city
in Russia call Krasnoyarsk-26 located in Siberia. This
story was not about Y2k but about the fact that at this place
the Russians are still making weapons grade plutonium. What
makes this very relevant to the Y2k issue is that the Russians
CAN NOT shut down this reactor because it produces steam that
is used to heat the city of 100,000 people.

My wife and I have done missionary work in Russia and their
way of heating a city is a little different from us. In Russia
they provide heat to homes by steam produced from reactors or
coal fired steam plants. These reactors may provide the only
heat for millions of people who have no alternative way of
keeping alive in the harsh Russian winters.

Even if the Russian government were to see the danger and want
to shut down their reactors they can't because they would be
causing millions of their people to freeze to death in the middle
of their winter.

Y2k in Russia can be a very dangerous thing!

In His Service,
Jerry M.
Birmingham, AL

---

// Y2k Weatherman Commen

for the USD hegemony as a system for exporting US inflation to
the rest of the world? I don't get it. Using the USD as the
world reserve currency means other nations must keep their interest
rates high in order to suck in the USDs they need to hold in their
reserves. Thus the high interest rates ( always higher than in
the US ) would have the effect of turning off ( deflating ) their
economies. Would it not? It seems to me, that our present
world deflation is a function of the FED's having kept US real
interest rates too high for too long, and the effect has been
a bankrupting of economy after economy, with the IMF acting
as a kind of American vulture circling the globe, administering
the economic coup de grace with a final dose of austerity in
exchange for the same bundles of greenbacks that caused all the
difficulties in the first place. Isn't this what we have been
seeing? Deflation in the world, not exported inflation?

time frame! It is a classic E-wave bullish pattern from a double
bottom!

Think of the oil price which the citicens of these countries have to pay in their own currency. In US$ terms the oil price is deflated, in terms of Asian currencies, the oil rpice is inflated.
Only for those who pay with US$ it is cheap to buy in these countries.
Of course you are right, high interest rates, imposed by the idiotic dogma of free floating currencies, and high taxes, imposed by the IMF, strangle the economies. But the US$ paying consumers think prices are low. Not for the consumers in the Asian tiger countries, but for Merkans.

As I said - I'm no economist and would appreciate more analysis and enlightenment.

Look at this link - my source for analysis - which after many months of searching, appeared to me as the most straightforward rationale for what we're all experiencing.

http://mises.org/journals/fm/fm0198.asp#Bailout Mania

First the US exports its inflation, and then the resulting
collapse of the foreign economies causes deflation. It just
depends on where in the cycle one is.

Relying on a world reserve currency which is overvalued and
printed in excess quantities is deflating the entire world
economy nation by nation. This cycle will persist until
the world sends those excess dollars home. When the US
begins to deflate, I think the Fed will welcome this. The
question as always will be timing. How will we know when
the Fed. finally signals the call back of these dollars?
I think they will lower interest rates as the DOW bubble
eases off, and/or they will allow gold to rise.

I suspect the IMF has been running around the world with fist fulls
of greenbacks to lend to troubled countries in order to stop these
nations from buying gold to shore up their currencies, ie selling
USDs.

poor bears just have to bide their time and at the first sign of weakness kick arse.....thats the freeloading arse of goldilocks..
Latin America is a significant consumer of metals and gold could benefit from increased demand as a result of the economic crisis in Asia, Russia, and Brazil, but this is likely to be offset by a structural decline in demand that still exists.
Fed Beige Book....Wednesday.........Greenspinner addresses the "Come in Spinners"
On Globalisation, Marx said,.."dissolves old nationalities and pushes to the extreme the antagonism between the bourgeoisie ( the capital owning class ) and the proletariat. In a word, the system of commercial freedom hastens the social revolution".......Thus global free trade hurts the petty bourgeoisie as small businessmen are driven into bankruptcy by the predatory practices of the multinational monopolies and oligopolies. This forces the petty bourgeoisie down into the proletariat, increasing everyones misery and hastening REVOLUTION
Fact.....Australia records record level of bankruptcies a 4X increase on
the 1987 level......
And finally on this wonderful day....."the executive of the modern state is but a committee for managing the common affairs of the bourgeoisie"
paraphrased by John Cassidy ( New Yorker, 20/10/97 ) : "Politicians merely carry water for their corporate paymasters."

I don't know if high interest rates have the effect of deflating economies, as you put it. Read the piece :

One thing is however certain : the worlds financial system is not running smoothly - requiring ever increasing ( hu ) manual intervention. ( By the USA with, naturally, its own interests at heart - why not? )

Perhaps this is a case of "The opposite of a fundamental truth is an equally fundamental truth" or words to that effect.

I think it might have been Churchill who once remarked that he wanted a one armed economist to advise him - thus to prevent the inevitable "On the one hand, on the other hand" routine that passes for a science in this supposed discipline. This "science" of economics, dealing as it does with money - the prime motivator, seems all too prey by its practitioners to sophisticated mental and sometimes moral gymnastics.

Which way is the wind blowing now, in early 1999 ?

As I said - I'm glad I'm not an economist.

I'd finally conclude that "globalisation" is a catch all poorly thought through label which seems idealistically to imply equal opportunities for all but in practice is being seen as an excuse for the selfish perpetuation of USA's unnaturally long boom period - for whatever reasons - together with an implicit "this wonderful system is based on fundamental human rights and democracy" - the lack of which is the reason for your ( everybody else ) failure to be able to run a fabulous deficit/credit/market mania driven "economy".

Though this is not to say that the utterly corrupt, greedy and disgusting politics of S.E.Asia ( where I live ) is in any way "right" or "better" than the political system to which the US attempts to adhere. The whole tango in a function of US$ reserve currency dominance - reasons for the emergence of which I'll leave historians to analyse. There's no doubt the USA is doing something right. The world's most creative society. Bar none.

Enough ranting for one post. I'm sure I'm boring you by now.

Glad you "get it" . I kind of. but can't debate the opposite corner so to speak - which for me is a requirment to be able to really say I "get it".

Anyhow - now we're reading from the same script - back to my earlier question posted earlier.

If repatriation of those US$ is a prerequisite for an end to this cycle, what ( cynically ) might the US do to prevent such an occurence - beyond continual bailing out of emerging economies to keep the dance going?

- though prior to a return to the disciplines of a gold standard of some form....

As an "esotericist" keenly searching for causes rather than wasting time analysing effects, I adhere to a spiral-cyclic view of the evolution of mankind's understanding of the forces of nature and human nature.

i.e. I think it unlikely we'll return to the same place we left off when we left the gold standard, but rather a modified form - that may or may not include gold but ought to accomodte anything we've learned since departing from it.

But if gold is not to be a part of the new equation, an equally solid disciplinary anchor will need to be found. At least for a while while we regain our financial balance so to speak.

My "Gold bet" is that we MAY return, though albeit briefly, to a gold standard - something which will compell the financial masters of the planet to invent a new system - fairer to all - which will again free them from the somewhat restrictive shackles of such a link.

It's the fear of gold's "power", and the loss of their own that will move us forward. Hopefully we Kitcoites will see gold rule the roost long enough, say 2-3 years peaking to 1000US$ an ounce to pay for our excessive online time and phone bills !

And for me to buy my Ferrari Dino 1973 !! Brmmm Brmmm ! Ever heard one ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990118/eq.html

"Brazil's Central Bank announced Monday it would continue to let the embattled currency to float in currency markets, but added it would intervene should the real weaken abruptly."

Whatever next ??

Only for afficionados of Latin American Dancing.... I'm looking forward to the Pasa Doble.

Paso Doble originates from Spain. It developed on the basis of movements performed by the matadors during the bull fights. In Paso Doble the man ( matador ) is in focus more than in any other dance. The lady is left with playing a role of a cape ( "cappa" ) the red canvas of the torreador or a bull, depending on circumstances. The dance came into fashion around 1920.

That when the bull finally gets nailed.

To float the real means gradual devaluation. This again means lower coffee prices and lower sugar prices for the US$ paying US market and some other idustrialized countries. But Brazil has to pay back their foreign debt in US$ and not in real. That means another deflationary push for the US market. Doesn't it? But it also means higher "imported" inflation for Brazil. Doesn't it? And it also means a 30% lower standard of living for the Brazilians. All these countries have to work their a*** off to keep the inflation rate low for the US market.

I think it is a typical short term solution. It will stablilize temporarily the markets. But rather sooner than later Brazil will sink into a new crisis. Because from now on Brazil has to live with much worse conditions to earn the dollars to pay for their bebts. It's an accellerartion of the speed with which we approach the point of no return. So to say, this crisis is over, the next one is programmed to come much sooner.

It would be much more fun to observe this increasing volatility of the financial markets without the upcoming disturbances of Y2K.

Right. It is a time-buying exercise : hence all the comments round here regarding the RUBIN-GREENSPAN hegemony. With possible - though with Gore a constitutional next in line ( with close Wall Street connections himself ) - not necessarily a sure thang.

What I'm looking for is the first advanced signs of any paradigm shift in US policy political/economic thinking. Something that will signal - perhaps subtely - that their toes are getting warm on this subject.

What might that be ?
A political cul de sac ?
A supposed friendly country in trouble ?
A run on the pound sterling ( sterling silver !! ) ?
That Clinton thang. Witnesses called. "Did you both do a line of coke while you were giving the POTUS his BJ ?: kind of thing. Kaboom !

This week's noises from Argentina ( silver again ) that they thought everybody South of the Border ought to go US$ might be a veiled threat perhaps in some perverse fashion ?

one analysis I saw alluded to the B.I.S. NOT wanting the US dollar to remain as the world's reserve currency. Keep a close eye on those dudes... whatever games they might play.

And...WATCH for ructions with the Euro - or veiled threats of some kind of action which would precipitate US action.

Your earlier point about being on the list makes sense. Though a reversal of dollar values might be a high price to pay - certainly from a political P.O.V.

However, a conclusion which one has to draw is that TIMING is everything, and thus one needs to watch for preemptive moves in Europe of some nature, OR most subtle threats to force the US to advance its timing in these respects.

Then there are the Japs. Remember Hashimoto's threat to sell US treasuries....and buy gold instead. which story was partially suppressed to excluse the final "and buy gold" bit.

Stuff like that. Watch like a hawk. Then call your options broker and pounce.

There is a rumour of SOROS shorting the dollar - posted here, but not corroborated a day ago or so. Does anybody have anything on that ?

Comments ?

http://www.brw.com.au/newsadmin/stories/brw/19990118/986.htm

"It's getting so bad," he said, "that there are multinational companies in the steel industry moving their operations to Indonesia because the labor costs are `too high' in Calcutta," a city noted for its abject poverty.

Becker said the destruction of unionized industrial jobs is especially damaging to minorities who have used these jobs to lift themselves out of poverty.

worry about labeling it as inflation or deflation; a rose by any name
would smell as sweet. I like what someone else said yesterday; we
might think of all of these devaluations and IMF dealings as "tributes".
There is precedence for that label from Roman times.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990118/d1.html

Rhody, esotericist, and ALL - I remarked here at Kitco about two years ago that I believed that the US government ( the real one kiddies, the one that controls from behind closed doors ) have for years now been controlling the ebb and flow of the world economy to their advantage. Why not? It was a natural extension of the Cold War games in which the survival ( and supremacy ) of the United States was ( is ) the primary object. With focused determination, unlimited resources, ( including the use of supercomputers ) , and carte blanche, what was to stop them?
I believe that the catalyst that got the boys in control of the military/industrial complex focused on this enormous project was the near meltdown of the world's fiat economy in 1979/90. This was the wake up call and the rest of the world has been playing puppet to the master ever since. The effects of this interference are now apparent around the globe. The next phase is already preplanned. My wild ( ? ) guess is that, in the next stage, the American economy will be revitalised THROUGH the use of a weak dollar. Inflation will be allowed to return gradually as the American dollar is allowed to weaken incrementally over the next few years. As overseas currencies strengthen vis a vis the greenback and imports become more expensive, American manufacturing will recover lost ground due to low interest rates, low raw material prices, vastly improved manufacturing techniques, and relatively lower wages. Any disruption of the economy due to Y2K, while being a temporary setback, can only help this process as the population and surviving business' will also be demanding more secure supply lines. We will see the Global Economy suffer. Americans will look inward and 'Hunker Down'. The war will be won, the rest of the world be damned!
Does anybody really think that the American juggernaut has not taken action these last 20 years ( Since the 1979/80 meltdown ) to protect its perceived 'vital interests'?
"An objective without a plan is a dream." ---Douglas McGregor

SSRIF hit the BONANZA apparently......one hole over 1000g/ton!

Take a look.

THC

I'm a systems person, not a investment expert. Since Y2K is going to be a MAJOR problem for the whole economy, I'm invested in a PM mutual fund and some physical assets.

Anyone have any SPECIFIC advice how to leverage a few thousand dollars on PM options, futures, or other methods to speculate on PM prices? I'm experienced with stock options, but not commodities. Any thoughts, web sites, or symbols to look-up would be appreciated.

CPO@AU - Y2K Russian Info - I have a personal question. Would you please send me an email at slog@hotmail.com . Please put the word Kitco in the title so I can see it's not spam. Thanks!

doing something right. The world's most creative society. Bar none."

I think I should comment on this. The United States violted Bretton
Woods in 1971 when it went off the gold standard and allowed the USD
to float. Bretton Woods was rigged in favour of the US in any case,
which gurantees these 30 year episodic finacial crises. Is it doing
something right by cheating, because, that is what the US has been
doing? Is it creative to cheat for 25 years, drive the world to
the edge of depression, and then duck responsibility? Perhaps.
Anyone can win if they cheat. It just means they are playing a different game than everybody else.

The US, as the world reserve curency nation, can run year after year
current account deficits, and then just balance the books by printing
greenbacks. This is the violation. This is why the world is taking
steps to stop the travesty. This is why we see the creation of the
EURO DOLLAR. If you want to call this creative, OK, but I would not
call this doing something right.

This is how the US can afford to field 9 aircraft carriers, and shoot
500 million dollars in cruise missiles at Iraq in just 4 days, to kill
67 Iraqi soldiers. The world has paid for these creative episodes.
They paid the world greenbacks in exchange for bullets and death.
It must end. As gold bugs we guess ( hope ) it will end by a fall in
the dollar. The exported inflation will come home to the USA. The
party will end. It has been creative, but a creative cheat is not right.

Dear esotericist, there is nothing personal in this tirade, but right is
right, and creativity should not enter the picture. IMHO

Points taken. can this be done in a controlled fashion ? Over what timeframe ?

And most relevantly....whither gold then ?

My references to creativity were merely an aside - an observation that against this backdrop with which we are most familiar, a culture has been created in which creativity in many fields is amply rewarded. Many good people creating many good things from which we all benefit. They have nothing to do with this story of course.

All your comments stand - there being nothing creative in f#$?g up the lives of the other 4 billion souls on the planet.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_rockwell/19990118_xclro_the_crimin.shtml

but the timings are completely different! A perceived increase in
inflation leads to an almost immediate increase in POG, while deflation
must run down through a long process of defaults, unemployment and
despair to generate the spike in gold. At least this was the pattern
in 1930. We better all hope the Federal Reserve Board gets the
timing right, otherwise we could be looking at $140 gold and 3 or 4
years of misery before the powers that be get desparate enough to
manipulate gold up. Please tell me I'm wrong!

brain depravation. The USA is stretched so thin militarily it is terrifying...economically it is the single largest debtor in history and the world sees this and will drive the debt stake right through the heart of this false economy...this debt ridden service economybuilt on cooked numbers...lies...criminal activities and a US population that cares only about the false score board listed in their meaningless retirement accounts...tax returns and other ink on paper which only represents the debt service of a country that has forgotten to SAVE for a rainy day...folks...this financial storm would make a modern day Noah build an Ark of gold...this financial DOWN-pour will last far longer than 40 days and nightsfarfar longer

esotericist - I had typed into that last post that, of course gold would rise in my stated scenario, ( greenback falls, Gold rises = inflation in US, although it will be controlled to rise gradually ) , but erased that comment at the last moment. I see that Rhody is thinking that the present situation may well be resolved in the same manner that I suggest, only he seems to think that that will be the American's comeuppance, whereas I believe that it is the way they have planned it all along. The beauty of it is that while the US economy has been purchasing goods from around the world when their dollar was strong they will redeem those dollars when the dollar is weak.

An interesting article from yesterday's Associated Press http://www.bergen.com:80/biz/brazil17199901179.htm

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990118_xex_the_threat_t.shtml

On one hand Clintler speaks of doing the people's work...he says they understand him...sitting with his wife on sixty minutes say"they get it, the American people get it." That is a paraphrase of what he said but it will do.

But on Y2K secret Executive Orders and skulking government employees make secretive plans...

What a load of horsepucky...

This a frenzy of greed, as shortsighted as the two digit date, a paroxysm of the soon to be defunct twentieth century, the final revving of the engine as it sucks its last fumes, the final flickering of the candle that has exhausted its fuel.

T1 - T1 - Although the USA may be weaker now militarily than it was 20 years ago there have
been some improvements in the accuracy of the missiles! Besides, other countries have
also downgraded and the backwards ( militarily ) nations have not really improved so
what's your worry? Iran, Iraq, Argentina, Germany, etc. are NOT going to send over their
fleets of ships and planes to bombard and straf the sacred shores of NA. The only enemy capable of wagging war with the US has been internally humbled ( USSR ) . The only real danger to the US militarily is from internal terrorism. Prevention of that possibility is where money should be spent. As for the sucking of brains that goes on around the world daily I can only quote you a passage from the article that you just
posted to back up the Perceived ( ? ) Strength that the rest of the world feels. From the WorldNetDaily article you just posted ( at about 10:46 ) :
"...Even on the international level, no one is safe from the
criminal actions of U.S. government policy. Indeed,
U.S. foreign policy increasingly resembles the lawless
behavior of a rogue state. We were told that U.S. air
raids on Iraq last month were directed only at official
buildings and sites. But a new U.N. report, buried by
the U.S. media, reveals that the U.S. government has as
little regard for foreign private property as it does for domesic.
The bombs damaged an agricultural school and at least a
dozen other schools and hospitals ( including a maternity
hospital and an outpatient clinic ) . It wiped out the water supplies for 300,000 people in Baghdad. Bombs
destroyed an important steel factory, and smashed a rice
storehouse in Tikrit, north of Baghdad. In the Kurdish
north, an entire secondary school was blown to
smithereens.

There is a reason why international law has traditionally
forbidden these kinds of tactics. They are worse than
uncivilized. They are the actions of a terror state. And
coming on the heels of the senseless destruction of a
pharmaceutical factory in the Sudan, they illustrate why
the U.S. government has taken its place as the most
hated institution in the world. "
Please folks! Before I get any mail, that article was written by an American from Alabama. Check out T1's link for the full article.

http://detnews.com:80/1999/biz/9901/18/01180012.htm

http://nt.excite.com:80/news/pr/990115/ny-dcr-rates-brazil

USING TECHNOLOGY TO IMPROVE TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MPLOYEES
http://www.fed-training.org/workspace/executiveorder.asp

From
http://www.financenet.gov/financenet/start/whatis.htm

and he gave us USers the buck in return.... ( and our tithes are only running 10% ) ....soooooo....such a deal, baby.

Today, as we dumbly watch american primary resource industries financially raped and completely dismantled, the only thought that comes to my mind is.....Who's Next?. Who will be the next dead beneficiary of Greenspan's inflation exporting, pro-paper, strong buck, dollar addiction policy? Who's next to become uncompetitive?

American manufacturing...dat's whoooooooo. Say soooo long to smokestacks, baby. We pay our workers in dollars....the rest o' the world's workers get do-nutz. Loaded chinese Buicks will be $1500.

short 'dem american manufacturers...sell 'em if ya' gottem'.

http://www.michaelhyatt.com/survival.htm

Is this the other shoe?...Just when will Japan announce it's gold purchases?

Dollar's dominance is over, Miyazawa says [Jan 18]
TOKYO, Jan 18 ( AFP ) - The dollar's dominance in global markets
is over following the euro's launch, Japanese Finance Minister
Kiichi Miyazawa said Monday.
"The dollar's one-currency dominance is over," Miyazawa said in
an interview with Kyodo News.
Miyazawa said global currency issues would be discussed at a
Group of Eight summit in Cologne after the launch of the euro.
"The currency issue will be on the agenda of the Cologne
summit," Miyazawa said.
"I hope some ways ( to stabilize currency markets ) will come out
of the session. For now, I hope exchanges of information and policy
consultations will be promoted further though these may not grab the
headlines."
Miyazawa also said some steps needed to be explored at the
summit to prevent hedge fund operations involving large, unchecked
capital flows across borders from badly affecting emerging market
economies.

that made it to Canada. Why is there no coverage of this in the US newsmedia?
http://www.federal.com/jan18-99/Bloodgate

http://www.michaelhyatt.com/survival/chap12.htm

Nuthin' to do on Be Kind to negro..er,colored..er,black..er,African-americans day. OK,OK he did us a favor by spurring the decline of American apartheid, but then clowns like Jesse Jackson stepped in to screw it up.
Would have been nice to have ol' philandering MLK around, an American Mandela, who at least had a little nobility.


Why can't the rest of the world move the price of gold instead of having to wait for US?

Waiting to see how those 8,000 new shorts get out of Feb gold in next couple of weeks. Will they blink first?

Been trying to find a chart similarity to the monthly gold chart since 1978. Several seem to qualify--monthy soybeans, SM and BO 1972-88 all show the spike in 73 followed by a sideways market with three smaller spikes 77,80,83, a drop below the uptrending support line followed by another spike higher than the 3 previous small ones. Corn monthly 87-Jan 94 is probably the closest match possibility. This fifth spike carries higher than the three previous.

For gold monthly this fifth spike, if the chart varifies, would carry us in the $550 range probably within a year. If we folow the corn pattern, there would be a pullback into the 300s followed by a move to $1100-1500.

The failure of gold to move lower from here durig the past 14 months indicates solid demand and growing support. A lower move should have occurred in Aug. Instead, there was a strong recovery. We've broken the downtrend line from the 96 high and are bouncing down the top of the line. Any move over 295 in Jan or 291 in Feb will ignite the glowing coals. Those 8,000 new shorts are gonna get burned.

Now if "subversive" gold-bugs were to be put in prison ( or any other subversives for that matter ) it really isn't such a large step to begin harvesting semen, egg-cells, human guinea pigs, body hair, etc.....sounding familiar?

This guy is really, really dangerous in that he can work his genocidal tendencies into the framework of the "system", and perhaps even into his twisted moral belief system.

Why do the democrats not see how rotten he is?....he's playing them like a violin and they love him.....the democrats will not exist as a political force within a decade after this....if the US has coherent gubmint that is.

7 short years ago...it cannot carry on two simultaneous major military operations in two hemispheres...it is running out of spare parts for goodness sakes...in addition you left China, Iran, N. Korea off of the list of countries whose military is far stronger than it was 7 years ago...Pakistan and India flirting with the "my bombs bigger than yours scenario."

Clintler has sucker punched the American people and they are just too dumb to realize it or they have just not reacted to it yet...no matter how you cut it...Clintler has weakend America's military horribly...and created a massive police state at the same time...

More government is not the answer...Clintler is nothing but a product of the government and thinks government is the answer to everything and when the law of the land stands in his way he signs an Executive order or arrogantly spits in the laws face...and the American people...clap...

He has weakend the military who defends our country and Constitution while shredding the Constitution with every stroke of the pen or breath he takes...

I dont live in Canada so I wasnt worried about ice, which caused so much trouble last year. I dont live in Virginia so I wasnt worried about ice, which caused so much trouble last month. Nature delivered her Y2K preliminary script to Baltimore Thursday night. Snow and ice covered ground from the previous weekend began to become layered in thick ice. Not just the ground, everything that could get wet outside; trees, shrubs, lawn grass, electrical utility service wires. By Friday morning most of the precip had ended and I was heading off to work. Too bad I didnt leave earlier. At 8:00 AM the power winked off without much fanfare.
I broke out the candles and proceeded to build a fire in the fireplace. This fireplace is a standard size brick/mortar/ceramic flue built originally into the house with a glass door screen in front. The logs were burning brightly, the kids were watching the ice show out the window, the wife was grumbling about the second cancelled school day, and I was finally heading out to work. The drive was uneventful down I-70 and Route 29 to Columbia, MD, without school buses and soccer moms on the road I averaged 10 minutes off the normal drive time. Numerous phone call updates from wife told a less pleasant story. Even with constant feeding of logs into the fireplace, the temperature was dropping in the house. I wanted to go back to my snuggly warm SUV and listen to my newly burned Who Quadraphenia CDs.
In Maryland an estimated 300,000 customers lost power Thursday night and Friday morning. The outages were isolated to factors such as geography, power grid topology and proximity of frozen flora to the service lines. Some people never lost power. We began to seek those people. My in-laws became our first target. The wife packed up the kids and shipped them off to a warm apartment while I was at work. Great, thats three less things to worry about.
The drive back from work was an amazing trip through a surreal landscape of crystalline and white trees backlit by Sodium or Mercury vapor lamps. ( I prefer the cool blue of the Mercury vapors myself. ) The beltway was clear until I arrived in my neighborhood were the road icing began to bring traffic to a crawl. At my off-ramp things I saw large sections of houses which were completely dark. Pulling up my street I saw dozens of branches and limbs on the road, in yards and laying on houses and cars.
With noone to stoke the fireplace, the temperature in the house was 56 F. While this may seem like a reasonable temperature, it felt much colder. My house has natural gas heat and water heater. But the furnace requires electricity for the ignition and forced air fan. The water heater utilizes a non-electrical thermocouple with a pilot light. As long as there is a steady supply of water and gas it will operate normally. So I turned on the hot water faucet to a trickle throughout the house. The radiated heat from the hot water pipes to the faucet and the radiated heat from the waste water lines to the public sewer should prevent the cold water pipes from freezing. The small stack of Federal Reserve Notes provided no warmth.
The stove is gas fired but requires electricity for the pilot-less piezo-electric ignition. Kitchen match standby was used to start the fire under a large kettle filled with water. The large thermal mass of the water should help keep the temperature in the kitchen bearable. It didnt. The stove was built with a commercial range hood to vent the extra-large Btu burners on the Dynasty stove. The 8 inch exhaust duct has no damper on it and cold air was streaming into the house. The bottles of stored water provided no warmth.
Meanwhile the fireplace was generating pitiful amounts of useful heat as most of the heat was escaping up the chimney. My portable scanner was set to the repeating broadcast of NOAA whether radio that was predicting 20 F lows for the evening. The temperature in the house that evening was a balmy 50 F but I felt cold. After putting on several wool blankets and nestling in the room with the fireplace, I went to sleep. Uncomfortable, nose-still-cold, tossing and turning, listening to the deafening silence of no electrical appliance sleep. The St.Guadens 1 oz. and Liberty silver .999 fine maintained a temperature of 45 F but provided no warmth.
I was awakened to a bright sun streaming into the windows and a very cold house. I put on my boots and went outside to survey the damage. Apparently my neighbors tree limbs came crashing down on her electrical service feeder loop to her house. Ripping the wires off its mounting to the house and pulling the primary service wire strung across the utility poles off. Great a possible live wire in the backyard. My H&K USP 40 was still providing no warmth.
I placed the prerequisite consumer complaint to Baltimore Gas & Electric about a downed electric wire. They proceeded to give no clue as to when a crew may be sent. Saturdays weather was 48 F and sunny. Hopes were high. Chopped some more wood to keep busy. Minor Kitco lurking fever was setting in. The dried beans provided no warmth.
Saturday night was much the same as the night before. Miserable sleep. I have grown to love my constant temperature thermostat and working furnace and I want it back please. Sunday morning I awoke to the sound of a utility crew in the back yard. Whoopee! I could see the new primary line snug tight across the utility poles. But no power. I put on my coat and boots and went to investigate. These guys werent from BG&E they were from Georgia. They lit up the primary once when I was sleeping but it started a burn down the line. These were good ole boys and I offered them hot-coffee and doughnuts but they declined. A half-hour later the power came back online.
Two days. Just two days without electricity and I was psychologically exhausted. I am addicted to the Btu. There I said it. Now Y2K is taking on new meaning. If I had this much grief from the loss of just one out of four utilities, what could it be like for a scenario where the gas stops flowing, the public water stops flowing, the sewers back up and my precious electrical juice dries up.
My wife is now very interested in a backup generator in the backyard. I am thinking about that plus waste heat recycling to heat the house and take a hot shower. A high-efficiency wood stove, which uses Platinum catalysts for EPA emission efficiency, would be nice too.
Got gold, got grub, got guns. Need heat, electricity, water and waste facilities. Only 353 days left. Panic mode on.

News media ( Pravda ) won't investigate or print such stuff because it doesn't fit their image of the man. You have to be really twisted to do the things Clinton has done. It's the con artist syndrome--you really can't believe the nice man in front of you is that bad until convincing evidence points directly to him and not to his subordinates.
You won't even investigate because then everyone will think you are the really twisted one who is so hateful that you would believe such a thing about a man who cares so much.

Above all, nobody, including Repubicans wants Al Gore. 90% of media are Democrats who remember what happened to the Republican Party after Nixon resigned. Presently, the media figures the Clinton image, tarred as it is, will carry him through. Anything, ( blood scandal ) that doesn't fit the petty corruption and morals failure scale of badness--he really is a good person down deep--is not going to get in print.

Here's a few stories about the shortage of generators.
Probably about 1/2 of what I've seen today.


--------------------------

Honda Generators...
Date: Sun, 17 Jan 1999 01:43:36 GMT

What's up with the supply of new Honda generators? Yesterday, at
my northern California Authorized Honda dealer, I was informed
that Honda will not be shipping any more generators until June.
No explanation was given as to this disruption of supply.

Could it possibly be a large contract by someone who knows more
about the future than us?
http://www.remarq.com/default/transcript.pl?group=comp.software.year-2000%3A50043925&update=1772

--------------------------------------------------------------
Generators on hold for Guard and Red Cross in Kansas area?
Date: 1999-01-16

I just had a phone conversation with one of my sons who lives in Kansas, and he mentioned that he and a friend had gone to a recently opened Home Depot store, looking to buy a generator. They were told that the store had no generators for sale right now because they were all on hold for the National Guard and the Red Cross.

I fully realize this falls into the "unconfirmed" category of information, but you can discount it on that basis if you wish. Anyone else in the Wichita and surrounding area of Kansas who has encountered this?

------------------------------------------------
Response to Generators on hold for Guard and Red Cross in Kansas area?
Date: 1999-01-16

I found the Wichita generators story interesting for it might explain
what happened at a LOWES hardware store on the north eastside of
Indianapolis. On Jan. 10th this store had in stock on the floor about
60 5000watt gas generators at least 75 Keroheat 22,300 BTU kerosene
heaters and 6 100# propane tanks. Today which is the 16th I found not
one generator or propane tank on the floor! About 45 Keroheat units
remained. Now for one thing I have never seen that many generators or
kerosene heaters in one store anywhere or at anytime before;EVER! I
asked the salesperson working that area of the store what had
happened to all his stock. He replied that they simply had all been
sold. Let's see thats 60 generators at $499 each or about $30,000
worth sold in less than a week. I wonder who might have that kind of
buying power?? Here's the phone number to the store if anyone wants
to verify my story it's ( 317 ) 578-2200.

---------------------------------------------
Response to Generators on hold for Guard and Red Cross in Kansas area?
Date: 1999-01-17

I had a conversation with a large Honda dealer in the midwest on
Friday. He reported that the Honda Industrial Diesel Generators are
backordered for 4 months! The factory availability on the
non-diesel generators seems to be OK. The "little" guys that build
generators per order and sell them have been backordered for 6 months.
However, this is the first that I've officially heard about
backorders from a major.

Your story is similar to mine, except it was 5 days in October of 1996 and my son needed round-the-clock breathing treatments for athsma. Panic mode went on in 1996 but now I am done. I hope you have time.

Can I reprint your story in C.S.Y2K? I'm sure there are others who need to get the message...I will await your reply. Thanks.

Copyright 1999, El Borak, inc. Makers of Minnesota Viking ( tm ) brand choke chains, available in red and black. Plane tickets to Miami not included.

TORONTO ( AP ) -- The launch of a common currency in 11 European nations is fueling debate in Canada and Mexico over whether North America's three trading partners should adopt a comparable monetary union. But don't expect a NAFTA-style euro any time soon. Opinion among experts is sharply divided, and Canadian and Mexican leaders don't appear eager for swift action on what would be a politically contentious project. Even if they were eager, Washington might not be. U.S. Commerce Secretary William Daley said Thursday a North American monetary union is a "very long-term" prospect -- one that might warrant serious discussion "a hundred years from now." "We expect the euro to be a success," Daley said of the European Union's new currency. "That will not drive us to some other integration, currency-wise, with the countries that are our neighbors." But Canada's ambassador to Washington, Raymond Chretien, echoed the views of many Canadian economists when he said the possibility of a single currency "would have to be looked at" if the euro proves a long-term success.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1i.htm

I agree with MOST of what you say.
Not going to argue the Clinton slimeball thing with you. I think most Kitcoites have been hit with that rant ( true as it may be ) for so long that they are willing to sign anything, just so as not to have to read, listen, or debate it any longer. I am anyway - where do I sign?
Not going to argue the military might thing with you either, in fact I agreed that it is weaker. The only thing I argue with is SHOULD you worry about whether or not the US can consistently wage "two simultaneous major military operations in two hemispheres..." - IS THIS REALLY NECESSARY - "...for goodness sakes..."?
" ...in addition .... China, Iran, N. Korea" are not going to attempt to fly their Air Force or sail their Navy over here to attack NA ( good 'ol USA ) so what's the problem? Can you ever imagine in our lifetime ( even our grandchildren's ) that Pakistan or India OR China will launch nukes our way? No Way Jose!
I repeat. The ONLY military threat that the USA needs to worry about ( and that it is not capable of handling at this point in time ) is from Terrorism committed on American soil. This is where preventitive measures ( and money ) should be concentrated. ( And not via the hiring of 100,000 extra police officers. ;- ) )

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/01/18/MN48930.DTL

I am not so sure about Kitco's co-copyright though. Do we have to ask Bart first?

Generators is a subject I have been investigating for quite a while. Most of the units sold which are gasoline powered are not rated for prime use. Even those with cast iron cylinder sleeves and low-oil indicators/shut-offs are not designed for 24x7 service. The units I am seeking now will have the following specs.
-Diesel, three or more cylinders for a vibration reduced mechanism.
-Large oil sump for additional cooling ( may not need in dead of winter )
-Large oil filter and pump assembly.
-Large capacity battery start.
-Failsafe over/under voltage circuitry.

In addition, large diesel fuel storage facilities and generator shed.
The local Baltimore Onan dealer wants $14K for such a unit. I will seek out a used, recently serviced unit though.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990118/ko.html

NEOTWAWKI/El Borak
It's easier to beg forgiveness than ask permission.

Copyright on the Internet is mostly oxymoron.
BB

disagree with as China now has capabilities to strike the continental US...but over and above that an attack on the US does not have to mean military incursions to the USA itself...by attacking interests we have to sustain our "robust" economy, etc...it can easily be seen that we would be in for a most threatening situation if the ME becomes anything less than "pro" US...if the Chinese flex their muscles in the Panama Canal...China takes Taiwan...if N. Korea attacks S. Korea...and on and on...all these things are in place and could go from if to uh oh in no time at all...and Europe is still a basket case situation...look at the the headlines in the media over the past two years...and make no mistake that Russia could be a major threat to many different regions in a drop of the hat...

The threats to the interior of the USA have been in large part due to failed foreign policy and serve as an excellent facade to implement the police state mentality we now have in Washington...an FBI running rampant...intrusion into every banking transaction...National ID cards, etc....

It is a very precarious quilt the US has woven and we are just beginning to feel the consequences...

What is 24X 7 service? Won't one of the 5000 watt gasoline generators be sufficient to run your furnace and well water pump?

Even though I really doubt they would sue me, it's still better to ask permission than to step on someone's ( figurative ) toes. I know how I feel when people spam my blatherings all over the place...

Anyway, thanks for permission, I'm sure it will have an impact on someone.

Of course, it will show up under my "real" name. I'm a geek in another life, working on Y2K since June of 1996. Y2K compliant since Dec. 1998, with a full year for testing.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Spacoon and Sparmadillo brand canned sandwich meats. You don't wanna know.

seven days a week and or continuous operation...

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Spacoon and Sparmadillo brand canned sandwich meats.

Well yes, sort of. The situation I have just been through was not a systemic power failure. It was isolated. BG&E were able to get crews from neighboring states to help out. In a likely Y2K scenario the failure will be grid wide. So I am planning for a longer term outage. Gasoline engines just don't have the construction and operating characteristics which will make for a long term solution.

Brazil May Have Lost $2 Bln Defending Real on Futures Market
http://www.news.com/Investor/NewsItem/0,213,0~0~~~~INI~353954600~~~~,00.html

Money market traders estimated that Banco do Brasil was
responsible for about 80,000 of 100,000 of currency contracts
sold on the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange ( BM&F ) as
of last Tuesday, or about $8 billion worth.

Thanks. I am planning a move to Michigan and I'm considering what to buy for backup power. I was thinking of one of those gasoline powered 5000 continous watt backup generators. I think they run on a 10 hsp. motor and will need to be wired somehow so that the generator can provide power to selected circuits off of the main breaker box. I'm thinking of setting it up so that it will run the necessary utilities, water well and oil furnace, in case of powere outages. Does this sound like a good plan?

You guys got me interested with all your generator talk, so I called the local Lowes super-store or whatever they're calling it these days to ask them. The guy said they had two generators left. They're the 4500 watt ones with Honda motors, running something close to 900$US each. He said that they were trying to get some more in and hoped to have them in the next two weeks. He gave me some sales bit about the generators being updated to 6000 and 8000 watts. I ASSUMED that he was having trouble keeping them in stock so I worded the question in an odd way, I asked him WHY he was having so much trouble keeping them in stock. He said that all the power outages on the east coast have meant that the generators are being diverted away from our local store and sent into the areas that are having electrical problems. All FWIW.

Move to Phoenix. That's what I did. : )

BTW, misc.activism.militia carried a story that looked legitimate
but I haven't been able to confirm it - nuke explosion in Iran
detected by satellite. I know the Kitcorg collective will be
interested. I'd like to see a verification.

Once you get your Loew/Home Depot/Wall mart special at home. Don't forget to buy extra rebuild kits, fuel filters and after market extra large mufflers. A 70dB gasoline motor running all night is not conducive to a good nights rest or friendly neighbors. "Look he has power and we don't. Let's storm the castle!"

Actually it kinda makes you want to go get some generators and drive them up north where they're needed, in the hopes of being compensated for your humanitarian efforts of course. I don't think y2k is going to be much of anything, BUT, I agree with all the y2k talk if the power grid were to go down. US folks are addicted to power, our ant hill is organized around it, and all the ants need it to carry out their day to day duties. Bugs to the flame, I wouldn't want to be in a major city if the power were to tank.

Can the infrastructure in Pheonix absorb the huddled masses yearning to breathe free from the entire northern tier states. Be careful what you ask for...you just may get it.

Argentina considers using dollar as its currency
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0118/f_ap_0118_21.sml

Argentine President Carlos Menem has called on his economic team to study ways to replace the peso with the dollar in an attempt to protect the economy from future financial turmoil.

Menem said last week, amid Brazil's economic problems, that Argentina would not consider devaluing the peso no matter how severe conditions turned.

Phoenix only started growing in the 50's and 60's because of one thing:
Air Conditioning. Ever been in a power outage in Phoenix in June or July? It is not a pretty scenario. With increased population, and highways and buildings, the temperature gets to 130 or 140. A generator WILL NOT run your air conditioner. People die quickly in the extreme heat, especially if they are not accustomed to such conditions. There would be no escape except underground, where the temperature is a constant 67 F.. Not trying to scare anyone away, but just to point out that there is Cold and then there is HOT. ALso people get very hostile in overheated and overcrowded conditions.

just an observation from experience.

http://popularmechanics.com/popmech/homei/9803HIHIAP.html

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alt2.htm give it a little time to load...

Mr. Mooney, you are a little naive. You need to study your history. Try reading "The Tunnels of Cu Chi," and then see if other countries think it is feasible to attack the US. Clinton had given his blessing to the leasing of the closed Long Beach Naval Station to COSCO ( China Overseas Shipping Co., which is owned by the RED Chinese Government ) for $1.00. In the Tunnels of Cu Chi you get a first hand account of how a tiny country, North Vietnam, created havoc with the superior forces of the USA with only a few sappers. Do you even know what a sapper is? Well if Clinton had succeeded with his insane idea of letting the US's worst enemy on the planet, CHINA, have a base on our own soil, only the GOOD LORD would know what chaos China would have wrought. Personally, I believe Clinton has done more to undermine the security of the US than anyone in history, and he continues to do so. No one seems to care, so long as the stock market keeps breaking records. Well, my generation fought in Vietnam. Since I have no children & am on the down side of my life, I'm just going tosit back and watch this idiot generation get buried. They are doing a terrific job of digging their own graves.

I have access to data files ( *.omz ) for Omega TradeStation but I do not have a program to read these files - no, I don't have TradeStation or SuperCharts. I also have access to the API calls but don't really feel like writing code myself to read the data files myself.

Does anyone know of a program on the web that can read TradeStation data files so that the data can be imported into, say Excel, or something similar? TIA.

Greenspan Seen In Wait-And-See Mode On U.S. Rates
http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Full_Stories.html?Button=Get+Story&headline=6942955&template= http://www.wallstreetcity.com/news/template/TPL_headlines.asp

The thought that stock prices are getting out of control and may come crashing down at any moment, wiping out billions of dollars in stock market wealth that have fuelled robust domestic demand, is very much on the Fed's mind.

Rivlin has warned that current stock prices are ''extremely'' high, given that future corporate earnings, the key determinant of equity prices, are set to decline amid an economic slowdown.

I think you can get tradestation free for 30 days on the web, dunno.

but the Presidents day doesn't close the markets, or does it ??

I forgot to add. If you think other countries are afraid of the US, go into the Associated Press data base and do a search for "N. Korea," for the dates of December 3 & December 7, 1998. On the 3rd, N. Korea threatened to "blow up all U.S. territories" if we did not stop bugging N. Korea about nuclear arms inspections. On the 7th, they threatened to blow up all of Japan for the same reason. Then, on December 8th, new US spy satellite photos of N. Korea revealed additional missle deployment by N. Korea, and now there is information that the North Koreans have an extensive underground tunnel complex/system for what is believed to be the building & testing of nuclear warheads. They are really terrified of the USA.

I forgot to add. If you think other countries are afraid of the US, go into the Associated Press data base and do a search for "N. Korea," for the dates of December 3 & December 7, 1998. On the 3rd, N. Korea threatened to "blow up all U.S. territories" if we did not stop bugging N. Korea about nuclear arms inspections. On the 7th, they threatened to blow up all of Japan for the same reason. Then, on December 8th, new US spy satellite photos of N. Korea revealed additional missle deployment by N. Korea, and now there is information that the North Koreans have an extensive underground tunnel complex/system for what is believed to be the building & testing of nuclear warheads. They are really terrified of the USA.

IDT: Listen carefully to NTEOTWAWKI about getting rebuild kits. I once had to depend on a 5kw gas gen for a few months while I was waiting for power to be delivered to my property. I could not afford a battery system at the time and ended up running the gen about 10 hours a day. It died after 2 months of that kind of abuse and I started having problems with it after about 1 month.

If we do need to depend on our generators for any length of time the Briggs and Stratton repair guy is gonna be the most popular person in town. Make friends with him EARLY and be prepared to pay many chickens.

small nations taking on behemoths like the US & running rings around them.

Did you hear about Clinton's fiasco at the Palestinian-Israeli meeting last fall when he tried to trade the release of Jonathan Pollard for Israeli concessions?

There was an immediate reaction from intelligence community leaders, including several former DCI's. Pollard compromised US security worldwide, in particular, releasing details of every signal the NSA was ablr to monitor to the Mossad, who then sold it to the Soviet Union. The intelligence types said they would resign, go public with the details of Pollard's case, and attack Clinton in the media. Clinton had to back down in one of his most humiliating failures ever.

Details of the case are at http://www.jya.com/traitor.htm

Career intelligence people are convinced Clinton will sell out US security interests for any sort of political advantage, and they are sure he will release Pollard if he thinks he can trade him for a mideast peace breakthrough that would help him in the polls during his impeachment trial. Were you aware that the FBI did not inform the Clinton administration of their investigation of Chinese spying and influence peddling during the '92 & '96 election campaigns because they knew details would be passed on to the Chinese?

Listen guys I can put a hundred trucks on your door in two weeks ,send bank letter of credit and tell me where you want em. Some sizes and engine types might be out of stock.

A sapper is a soldier in the Royal Engineers, or I guess, the definition you intended, a person who digs saps i.e. concealed siege trenchs. Or perhaps you meant people who insidiously undermine a belief ( ....in gold? ) . Golly, now we are getting pretty close to home!

WWW.SMARTMONEY.COM ANSWER: Supply and demand now determine the value of a dollar. And, as of last Friday, supply and demand determine the value of the Brazilian real as well. When currencies float, governments have a few tools to affect their value: They can buy or sell currency in the marketplace, and they can raise or lower interest rates. But, international investors have ultimate control. ( Remember when George Soros broke the Bank of England? )

Turns out, the trouble with pegging our currency to the value of gold wasn't much different than Brazil's trouble with pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar: It resulted in an overpriced currency. Under the gold standard, units of currency could be converted into fixed amounts of gold. During the 1800s, many nations operated under the gold standard, says Robert Carbaugh, a professor of economics at Central Washington University. But by the 1900s the United States was the only remaining country using the gold standard, which was phased out in the U.S. in 1973.

"Many people liked the idea of a fixed exchange rate that the gold standard provided," Carbaugh says. It was especially appealing to anyone dealing in international trading, he says, because it eliminated the fear that currency instability could wipe out an investment. The problem with the gold standard was that while the exchange rate remained fixed, economic conditions continued to change. "The fixed price no longer reflected the economic realities," Carbaugh says. "By the 1970s we realized that at a fixed exchange rate, the dollar was greatly overvalued."

By letting go of the gold standard and letting the currency float, the U.S. was able to bring the value of the dollar closer to the reality of the free market. Same goes for Brazil, once the government unhinged the real from the U.S. dollar.

all of the excellent sales leads in the media and call/email/snailmail and make known said offer to the areas that cannot get the generators... it seems like it would be a marriage made in hardware heaven...

Web site or e-mail address for your offer? Diesel? 20kW?

NTEOTWAWKI - I'm not worried about everyone moving here. If they do,
it becomes an easier matter to talk my wife into moving to Portland,
or San Luis Obispo.

AZAU - Heat can kill, but Y2K will strike in dead of winter. By
the time summer rolls around in 2000, everything will be fixed. : )

And still no confirmation on the nuke detonation in Iran?

I posted this URL here once before a few months ago. I've been on their mailing list now about 6 years and they've always been good about prices, quality and delivery for the stuff I've bought. ( Once I bought a trailer from them and the UPS guy brought it to my front door in a zillion 70 pound packages! ) They have several pages of generators in their paper catalog-don't know what they have online. ( Any Lawyers out there? I am not responsible for your own stupid business dealings nor your mistakes after reading shopping info from the internet. ) http://www.northern-online.com/

I bought an automobile DC to AC power converter ( 300 watt ) for $50 dollars. Next December I will buy a BIG car battery ( or two ) and give them a full charge.

It will run just about any appliance, such as computers, TVs, Stereos, etc. However, a "Biggie" like a refrigerator will suck the battery dead in no time. With "reasonable use" it should last a couple of weeks.

Obviously this is a short time source of 120 volt AC electricity for those who are fully prepared for a blackout situation, and only need the device for convenience.

I bought an automobile DC to AC power converter ( 300 watt ) for $50 dollars. Next December I will buy a BIG car battery ( or two ) and give them a full charge.

It will run just about any appliance, such as computers, TVs, Stereos, etc. However, a "Biggie" like a refrigerator will suck the battery dead in no time. With "reasonable use" it should last a couple of weeks.

Obviously this is a short time source of 120 volt AC electricity for those who are fully prepared for a blackout situation, and only need the device for convenience.

I bought an automobile DC to AC power converter ( 300 watt ) for $50 dollars. Next December I will buy a BIG car battery ( or two ) and give them a full charge.

It will run just about any appliance, such as computers, TVs, Stereos, etc. However, a "Biggie" like a refrigerator will suck the battery dead in no time. With "reasonable use" it should last a couple of weeks.

Obviously this is a short time source of 120 volt AC electricity for those who are fully prepared for a blackout situation, and only need the device for convenience.

.

Which would offer better returns

Short Mar SPX ?

Long Mar Gold?

awaiting insightful commentary - i.e. Is it a bear trap in Gold headed out way?

Thanks...

ABX increased its bid for Argentina gold from $4.00 to $5.00/shr.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990118/og.html

They are parasitic entities that can only exist by indoctrinating & cheating the masses at home & all other govts are opponents, except the enemy of my enemy...that they continually are looking for ways to cheat. There is no doubt though, that the USG has elevated & perfected the cheating to a level undreamed of, even 10 yrs ago. By using attack dogs like Soros they are now able to manipulate & control the entire global financial system & virtually destroy any Country's currency at will. Thus the urgency & necessity of the Euro.

From the world Gold Council ... www.gold.org
News Release 13 January 1999

Euroland - the worlds largest gold holder


In the light of various speculative press reports concerning gold and this weeks
publication of the first reserves statement by the European Central Bank, the
Centre for Public Policy Studies of the World Gold Council is issuing this press
release to clarify the key issues. It is important to emphasise that the mere
publication of this reserves statement carries no implication for future gold sales
by either the ECB or the 11 individual EU member states which comprise
euroland.

LONDON - 8 January 1999 - The European System of Central Banks ( ESCB or
"Eurosystem" ) is now - as a consequence of the changes resulting from the
introduction of the euro - the worlds largest single holder of gold, easily
exceeding the amount held by the worlds previous largest holder, the US.
The ESCB consists of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) in Frankfurt and the
national central banks of the 11 countries ( note ) that have joined the European
Economic and Monetary Union ( EMU ) , under the terms of the 1992 Maastricht
treaty.
On 5 January the ECB published an initial balance sheet for the Eurosystem,
which will be updated weekly. It showed the ESCBs total gold holdings to be
worth euro99.6bn. The gold valuation used by the ESCB was set at euro246.368
per troy oz, equivalent to the London am fix on the morning of 31 December
( $287.45 ) . This valuation will be updated quarterly according to golds market
value on the last day of the preceding quarter. Euro99.6bn of gold was therefore
equivalent to 404.3m oz or 12,574 tonnes of gold. This is more than a third of all
the gold held by central banks and international monetary institutions ( around
34,000 tonnes ) .
The same balance sheet showed eurolands other foreign reserves ( ie foreign
currencies ) totalling euros227.4bn. Gold therefore makes up some 30.0 per cent
of eurolands total foreign reserves, a much smaller proportion than in the US,
which currently holds around 53 per cent of its reserves as gold.
The creation of the euro involved various changes in the gold holdings of EU
central banks, as follows:

Previously all EU central banks deposited 20 per cent of their gold and
foreign exchange holdings with the European Monetary Institute ( EMI -
the ECBs forerunner ) in exchange for ecu. These deposits were returned
at the end of 1998.
The 11 euroland central banks had together to transfer a total of
euro39.47bn of gold and foreign exchange reserves to the ECB. 15 per
cent of this - euro5.92bn - was in gold. This is equivalent to 747 tonnes
of gold at the price adopted by the ECB.
The amount each central bank had to transfer to the ECB was determined
according to its ECB shareholding.

While the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the national central banks will
remain in their possession, it is important to emphasise that - under the terms of
the Maastricht treaty - all gold and foreign exchange reserves are at the disposal
of the ECB. According to the Maastricht treaty, transactions above a certain limit
will be subject to approval by the ECB. Guidelines covering any gold and foreign
exchange transactions carried out by the former national central banks have been
adopted but have not, however, been published.
The largest individual gold holders within euroland - Germany, France and
Italy - have all confirmed in the recent past that they will not be looking to sell
any of their gold reserves.
Note: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. The four remaining members of
the EU - Denmark, Greece, Sweden and the UK - are not, for the time being,
participating.

Top 10 Central Bank and Financial Institutions
Gold Holdings




Gold holdings
tonnes

% share of gold* in
total reserves

1

Euro-system**
12,574

30.5%


of which:



Germany
3,469

N/A


France
3,024

N/A


Italy
2,452

N/A


Netherlands
1,012

N/A


ECB
747

15.0%


Others
1,870

N/A

2

United States
8,135

53.0%

3

IMF
3,217

...

4

Switzerland
2,590

38.3%

5

Japan
754

3.2%

6

United Kingdom
716

17.3%

7

Russia
446

33.5%

8

Taiwan
422

4.5%

9

China, Mainland
395

2.4%

10

India
357

10.9

The only thing that matters is interest rates. Higher rates are the only thing that will kill these equity mkts & I don't see that happening anytime soon. If one had just focused on that simple fact ( too simple for the great minds of Kitco ) one could have made big gains in safe stocks instead of hoping for a calamity to push up the POG. Ironically AU was just about the only sector I made any gains on at all.

It may have felt good to oppose the conventional thinking by being a contrarian, but I know in my case it cost me big by being short overvalued tech stocks that just kept getting more overvalued.

But don't give up now I finally succumbed last week & am long the SPDR Tech index. I made a sbstantial bet that when the net traders finally give up on the internut stocks, they'll pile into the big techs. Have a fairly close stop, so we'll see. Also have a bet on Brazil. That mkt was up 5% today.

I think betting on Brazil is a really bad idea, especially the equity markets. Look, it never fails, when something goes into the drink bargain hunters everywhere start thinking it's on sale and start buying it, but nothing sees a bottom when it's only just tanked. What next, Russian equities ? These things won't turn around in any significant way for years, ask goldbugs about gold, it can fall forever, it can fall until nobody thinks it can fall any longer, then it can fall further until it reaches historical lows, and then it can fall further. Brazil has problems, not a good time to be jumping on a sinking boat. Some real smart folks are going to start buying Internet stocks when they get back down to 30 and 50 bucks each, and they're going to watch it all fade away as they drop even further to 10 bucks, then 5, then 2, then pennies on the dollar. Look at what happened to Biotech, look what happened to Iomega, and they both tanked during a bull market. That's just my opinion.

More: Just look at the graph. If the world were to slip further into recession it could be years, it could be decades, before these countries turn around. Things move in cycles, but that doesn't mean you won't be sitting there with your money tied up in Brazilian stocks for the next 20 years waiting for them to turn around. Brazil may have lost 90 percent in her equities market, but she can lose 90 percent again! and again! and again! There are an infinite number of 90 percents that she could drop before it's all over. Look at the graph! It's a garage sale.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^BVSP&d=my

Any suggestions for a on-line brokerage that will let you buy/sell Commodities Options ( PM options, of course. ) I don't know why, but the big discount brokerages like Quick?illy, Schwab, Ameritrade, and the others don't do Commodities Options. Anyone found a big one that trades these? ( I'm a system person, and I am not comfortable with sending a check to a company I've never heard of! )

To invest modest amount for Y2K bump this year....anybody want to recommend a couple small cap, low priced common stocks, could be Canadian or ADR, prefer US companies but not SSC....will not hold your feet to the fire for results.

is loaded with some good stuff.
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/links.htm

I'm still considering your question of overseas manufacturing and US sales, it is basic and not thought out to my knowledge. Those which have something to gain see it one way, those to lose see it the other. The proper awnser isn't formulated by anybody, surprising, since it's so basic to our econoic survival. Those seekers of cheap labor contiune to export jobs unobstructed by US policy, odd isn't it, we don't have a national debate on this issue.

My experience with generators goes way back ( 18 years ) of nothing but generator power. I settled on yamaha 1000 wt gen for all uses eventually, just trimed my needs. They are very superior to Honda's , altho Honda's are OK. 5000 wt gens should be DIESEL, otherwise they will keep you busy trucking gas to them and for y2k purposes where are you going to get thwe gas??? Diesel stores well you can use #2 heating oil it's the same stuff. One poster mentioned 3 cyl engine for $10,000 and thats mighty fine but probably water cooled,eh, that's ok too but 1 cly engines that turn up 3600 rpm are smooth too and so are the 1800 rpm'ers. They are also air-cooled. Yanmars are ok, I've got one but haven't tested it since I hooked up to a utility pole last year. I love it, but I could go back to gens, rain water, and honey bucket without undue stress, being safe is the main thing, sometimes it's the only thing.

I agree entirely with the posters views on our relationship with China, we are compromised and for what, phiff. Clinton et all in our gov are fiddlin and gasin and being important. Isn't there anybody in the pentagon sitting on a cornflake? Where are the miltitary professionls, standing in line for federal handouts?

I've done all I can, got grub, got guns, got gold, but I love my countrymen and I dread what I think will be coming down.

See A Circle of Dominoes http://www.y2Knewswire.com/dominoes.htm#_Toc436214320
"For a sobering explanation of these complex interdependencies and an interactive projetion of potential outcome ( s ) should one or more systems fail." By Pam Blackstone Victoria Times Colonist article.

I apologize for the long post, but as far as I know, Margolis' articles aren't available at any web sites. Read it and weep:

- Steve


Foreign Correspondent

Inside Track On World News
By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
Eric Margolis ( margolis@foreigncorrespondent.com )

U.S. FOLLY LAUNCHES NEW MISSILE RACE
By Eric Margolis
January 17, 1999

Intense efforts by the United States to prevent the spread of medium and
long- ranged missiles around the globe have failed. In the past two
months, a number of third world nations have broken out of America's
missile control regime, and are rapidly deploying missiles capable of
carrying nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads over long distances -
potentially even to North America.

According to US intelligence, North Korea, which is supposed to be
starving, is preparing to test a second, multi-stage, medium range ( MRBM )
ballistic missile of the Taepo-dong series. North Korea first tested this
new system last fall, sending a missile soaring over Japan.

This crude but effective act of intimidation and blackmail provoked
enormous consternation and alarm in Japan, which suddenly found itself
naked and vulnerable in the face of a potential nuclear, biological, or
chemical attack by the dangerously unpredictable North Koreans.

Yet the mere suggestion Japan might consider participating in a theater
anti- missile system being developed by the US produced howls of outrage
from China, and the usual tirades about 'rebirth of Japanese militarism.'
Tokyo ran for cover. China, which had lobbed missiles at Taiwan to
discourage or intimidate the island's independence-seekers, warned it
would not tolerate deployment by Japan of defensive or offensive strategic
systems.

Meanwhile, it was recently revealed India is preparing to test an improved
version of its 2,000 km range Agni MRBM. The new system, AgniER ( extended
range ) , will be able to carry a nuclear warhead 3,700 kms, according to
Indian defense officials, who claim the Agni-ER will give India 'critical
leverage' over China. Data from US spy satellites suggests India is
currently preparing a March test from its new missile range in the Bay of
Bengal.

The Agni-ER has set off alarm bells across Asia. Pakistan, already well
within range of India's current Prithvi and Angi systems, is racing to
deploy its own 1,500 km MRBM Ghauri missile. China is warning that India's
Agni-ER represents a major threat, and a dangerous escalation of the Asian
arms race. Recent reports say China has decided to target more of its
nuclear-tipped MRBM's on northern India. Statements by India's Defense
Minister that China now constitutes 'the main threat to India' have
further heightened tensions in Asia.

India's two-stage Agni-ER, and North Korea's Taepo-dong series, have also
provoked growing alarm in Washington. Some US experts believe the new
Taepo-dong may soon develop the range to hit US bases in Okinawa, Hawaii,
and Alaska. Addition of a third stage on the Indian Agni-ER, or
Taepo-dong, would eventually give these systems the capability to strike
the continental United States - and Canada - with nuclear warheads.

A recent classified US defense department report concludes American
aerospace firms, notably Hughes, provided China with advanced missile
launch and guidance technology that may greatly improve the range,
reliability, and accuracy of China's small number of intercontinental
missiles ( ICBM's ) .

This incredible act of folly was the result of White House pressure on the
US Commerce Department to release top secret data to China in return for
large financial contributions by mysterious Asian donors to President
Clinton's re- election campaign. Lenin was right when he observed that
capitalists would sell communists the rope with which to hang them.

While the potential strategic threat to North America grows, the US
Congress continues to dither over development of a comprehensive, national
anti-missile defense system. Congress readily provided Israel with $1
billion to develop its Arrow anti-missile system, now in initial
deployment phase, but it has so far declined to fund anti-missile defense
for the United States.

Congress' reluctance stems in part from the enormous expense and
technological problems of defending even part of North America from ICBM
attack. A second major factor is the long-standing agreement with the
Soviet Union and Russia that neither side will deploy a comprehensive
anti-ballistic missile defense. Renunciation of this pact would very
likely undermine, if not kill, the series of strategic and conventional
arms reduction agreements between the two powers.

Russia has recently protested US development of a theater defense system
against tactical missiles, claiming this program could quickly be upgraded
to a strategic defense umbrella that would threaten the current nuclear
arms balance, and ignite a new strategic arms race.

The Russians are probably correct, and they certainly don't have the money
to embark on a new, hugely costly weapons race, or the deployable
technology to sustain it. But the US must soon address the question of its
growing vulnerability to non-traditional rivals. China and India are far
more a threat to one another than to the United States, yet in this world
of nasty surprises, their potential cannot be ignored or discounted. North
Korea poses a very real, urgent danger to the US and Asia.

The US recently bombed Iraq's legal, short-ranged missile production
plants to prevent possible development of a medium-ranged system capable
of reaching Israel. Then why does the US not attack North Korea's vastly
more dangerous strategic missile program before it can menace North
America? Just as Israel destroyed Iraq's main nuclear reactor in 1981.
This is an extremely dangerous precedent, to be sure, but we are living in
increasingly dangerous times.

Copyright: E. Margolis, January 1999
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Here's a couple which I've got and/or like:

Panther Resources ( PTHR ) : operating mine in Mexico, currently 200 tpd but expanding to 1000. http://www.pthr.com .15/.17

Atlas Mining ( ALSM ) : silver exploration and aquisition, they actually earned money ( 10 cents a share ) through contracting and timber sales. Have 1000+ acres in the silver valley. http://www.atlasmining.com .30/.40

If you're feeling real lucky, you might try Silver Trend Mining ( STRI ) http://www.trendmetals.com. They have a couple of mines and are exploring for PMGs in Idaho, I believe. At .02/.035, this one's a real gamble, but they just reorganized and have some good people on board.

A good place to start looking is http://www.pennaluna.com ( Pennaluna & Company ) , stockbrokers in Coeur d'Alene, ID. They have back issues of their newsletter online, some ( dated ) company profiles, everything a growing boy needs to make ( or lose ) money in the junior market.

These are all *real* speculative ( my favourite kind ) , and won't earn a lot from silver. But you could earn a lot from them if everyone else thinks they will earn a lot from silver, etc.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Hamster Hat brand custom pet clothing. It's not *for* your pet, silly. It's from him.

my friend's wife came home last week after listening to talk radio.
"what's all this to do about not being able to get k-y jelly after
the year 2000?" she asks him...he shook his head and walked away....

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990118_xex_the_threat_t.shtml

Lind Waldock-800-445-2000 is a good discount commodities broker for options on futures and straight futures contracts. Min. 5k to start. Maximum of $35.00 per contract traded.

I have been hearing from several sources including Monex, that silver is poised for a big move up to at least 6.50 per ounce, I am long silver, anybody else??

I went to the gun store, hadn't been there in ages. The owner had a wooden sign up behind the counter that said Bill of Rights at the top and proceeded through the section that explains the right to own weapons. On the counter there was a plastic rat with the label "bill" on the side with a post-it note. It's tail was caught in a mouse trap labeled "starr" with a piece of cheese labeled "monica". Gotta love the gun store. Anyway, in the course of purchasing a 22 auto pistol for target practice we talked and the owner said that he's had a few people through the store purchasing weapons and ammo because they'd heard Jerry Falwell talking about the Y2K computer bug as he called it. Anyway, I asked him what he thought of all that and he said he thought it was funny, he said that if we can build computers we can fix them. So there's the word from the street.

Oh well another slow day on Kitco, markets are closed so we need to talk about how Y2K will end civilization. All those stories dreamed up by intellectual prognosticators who think that civilization is equal to capability to turn on your TV, brows through the Internet and chat on the phone with you girlfriend.

I think, that to end of this civilization may be quite helpful so that people would go back to basic to realize what's really important. Maybe sitting by fireplace and reading through some history books would help to improve this "civilization as we know it"

Sorry folks, but I am getting tired of this "15 to 86% probability that Y2K will end "civilization". How ridiculous concept with setting so low standard for the human race.

"I went into the woods because I wanted to live deliberately,

to front only the essential facts of life,

to see if I could not learn what it had to teach,

and not when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."

Henry David Thoreau

Here is a link to an update about crashes occuring near eclipses. According to the analysis, sometime between Jan 25 and Feb 3, a crash may occur. If a crash or sharp downturn does happen, Steve Puetz is still right as the data does not suggest which lunar or solar eclipses will cause a crash, but that they have a very strong tendency to occur during those times. Steve Puetz is cited in this link.....

http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm

You hit on the one and only fundamental reason this bull market would turn into a long term bear market. Any event other then a hike in interest rates is just a blip in the market, even if Clinton is booted out it would be no more then a blip on the graph. I expect the Mar S&P to be pressing 1290 again this week.

terror that it is becoming...people across the country should already know what to do in an emergency...but nooooooooooooooooo...no advanced planning...of course folks that don't use smoke alarms or do drills in the middle of the night get what they deserve...pain...suffering...and many times...death...and I am not talking about the freak accident...no I am discussing the horrors of not having any comprehension about what to do in an "emergency." Or taking the time to think ahead and do just a "little" planning..."just in case."

Imagine what happens when Y2K hits and "possibly" causes electricity to be out for 30 days...IF...I say again...IF it happens...the US government...FEMA...the NG...the military...Red Cross...won't be able to address the problem on a national basis...sure they will try...most folks that try to help in emergencies usually are good decent folks...

But the people that do nothing...that do not prepare...that never perform the most simplistic actions designed to help themselves in an emergency will be a national...city...town...neighborhood...block to block burden...

Not too long ago Canada had some terrible storms and such...and recently here in the US people were confronted with emergencies...I will bet folks in the affected areas are far better prepared this time around and I would equally wager that folks that have plenty of time to prepare but have not...will be a burden when the emergency hits their community...

They just never learn and continue to think..."it won't happen here." For a few lousy dollars to be prepared for even a week would lighten the load immeasurably...

The US underground economy may be as much as 1 trillion $. Failure to account for this may be distorting economic statistics such as money supply and GDP. http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba273.html ( typing URL from memory, will repost if not correct )

What happened to EJ? I was gone over the holidays for a few weeks and

since I've been back I haven't noticed any of his posts. He used to

post quite regular.

Tolerant1, agreed, get prepared, "things" may happen. However, these "things" will not end our civilization.

to M. Albrights plan for a "New Order." And who said the USA is the only super-power...oh yeah...she did...things will deteriorate quickly from this day forth...mark it down on your calendars...yup...uh huh...I see this arrogance as a turning point...yup...uh huh...that bunch of Princeton and Harvard boys and girls in D.C. are going to get a rude awakening from the rest of the world...

Get readyget setinstant global mayhemlets seeboy O boy is America going to pay and pay dearly for thisit is a sadsad day

I may be a 'little' naive Frail but not all that much! ;- ) Korea's puffery is similar to Pakistan's and India's. Yes China is an enemy in sheep's clothing. Yes there are still dangers in the world.
Look back at my posts. I do not disagree that America has been badly served in recent times. 'Recent' being the last 45 years. Our main difference of opinion probably is that I believe that America has overstepped its own mandate ever since the end of the Korean War. ARE we getting a little off the Gold and economic focus of this forum? YEP.
At various times in the last two years I have practically begged people not to get into political discussion on this arena. Here I am, feeling that I'm getting dragged in, therefore I will make this post and sign off for the night, agreeing to disagree for now on certain points. It should be quite obvious to ALL, that with the thousands of backgrounds of the various participants, there will never be total agreement when it comes to politics ( or Manifest Destiny discussions ) around here.
Tolly - "...if the Chinese flex their muscles in the Panama Canal..." IS this a serious comment? If the Brits can set an example by sailing to the Falklands and kicking the Argentinians off those rocks which were so close to their own ( Argentine ) territory, do you seriously think that the US would not take immediate steps to counter Chinese aggression so close to home and on such a vital land mass. Did not US troops fly in and take Panama's former dictator right out of that swamp? Chinese attack anywhere in this Hemisphere? Give me a break!
I REPEAT, ONCE AGAIN:
"Can you ever imagine in our lifetime ( even our grandchildren's ) that Pakistan or India OR China will launch nukes our way? ( Even if they have a Mickey Mouse capability - would they use it? ) No Way Jose!
I repeat. The ONLY military threat that the USA needs to worry about ( and that it is not ( totally ) capable of handling at this point in time ) is from Terrorism committed on American soil. This is where preventitive measures ( and money ) should be concentrated."

Have a look at this article by Carolan: http://www.calendarresearch.com/bulltrap.htm


- Steve

a compulsion to lose money in the mkts. I've known for years that it's suicidal to fight the tape ( Marty Zweig ) & yet I find myself taking contrarian positions. Not fighting the tape has helped me with AU stocks--I caught most of the 2 big moves up last year--but for some crazy reason I fought against the tape for years & got killed by shorting the techs.

I think it comes down to greed. I look at those crazy P/Es & think about how much I would make if they got back to normal. The few times that I was ahead I held on after they reversed & headed higher because I just did'nt think it was possible.

I hope that I'll be able to catch the big move down when it finally comes. But I won't try to plan my life around it & will try to maintain discipline & keep emotion out of my decisions.

Sold 605 & 610 Calls on Friday. Right now, I feel March S&P 1290 could go the other way. Tuesday, Wednesday market may tell if the rest of January and first week of February is down or up.

i admit to being a novice, but i don't understand this "flight to
quality" business. with pm protection available, why would anyone
in his right mind purchase "debt" to protect his portfolio?

I'd heard about Ponzi schemes for years but had always thought that they must have been an acronym like EEOC, COBRA or SALT2. Well today on the History Channel there was a biography of Mr. Ponzi himself. So I looked him up on the net. Cool dude. Does he remind you of anyone? http://www.isrp.org/ponzi.html

I lied. I'm back. There you have it. In black and white if you ever have need to use. Mooney admitted that he lies on occasion. ( Of course it was entirely unintentional at the time, ;-0 . )
Miro - Thanks for reminding us of Thoreau's work. When I first read Henry David Thoreau's book about Walden Pond I was amazed at the calming effect that each chapter had on me as I read it slowly, a little bit each night, ( so as to make it last ) , at the end of the long working day. Karma.
Namaste.

Watch history and learn...its happening right before your very eyes...

I've taken time to think through the exportation of jobs from the US to foreign countries and note your thoughts about US policy not stopping the loss of jobs, and that there hasn't been much of a debate on the subject. After thinking about it, I don't think there is anything to be done. We're used to thinking about things from the US perspective, but if you really stand back and look at it from the global point of view, it's natural and will no doubt continue. We think of Nike as a US company that can be regulated with minimum wage laws, government policy on retirement plans, etc, but I see it a different way now. Nike and all of the other international companies have become just that, international, they aren't US companies anymore, they have moved beyond the control of the government. Any attempt by the US government to regulate these multi-national companies will only bring about a further loss of jobs, revenge by the multi-nationals for US arrogance. The US has moved into the same position that my little town in Virginia is in, it doesn't have the power it once did. The town I live in has to do what it can to attract companies into the area in an attempt to create jobs, or provide stimulus packages to create jobs, etc. We don't have the power to make a company do anything, we can't make a company provide jobs in our area. In fact, if my town isn't especially friendly to the companies that are considering starting up or moving to this area, they won't, and the town will be hurt as a result. I suspect that the multi-national companies have the US in the same position, they can essentially operate anywhere, they can move with relative ease, they move in and out of countries using their people as a work force, move finances around the world in reaction to political and financial environments at the time, shift their channels based on tax structures and rates, and put their stock on the world markets as they see fit. I believe the people running the global companies have indeed taken on a global perspective, the US has become one market, a market of 271 million people, part of a market world-wide that has 6 billion people in it. The US equity markets have become a single market out of a possible 50 which can handle equity and debt financing. The US legal system has become one of hundreds available for a home jurisdiction. So, what I'm saying is, after thinking about it, thinking about how I would view the world if I were in charge of a multi-national company, I think the US is afraid to push the limits too much, the US government is afraid to say that multi-national companies have no right to use workers in Indonesia to make sneakers. The international firms have grown beyond the scope and power of the US government, they have become entities of the world. After thinking about it from that perspective, I suspect that if the US government suddenly said that they were putting a new tax on financial transactions that was a large burden on business, the multi-nationals would just close their financial offices in the states and move them to Switzerland, or Monaco, or Belize, or anywhere else that they had a mind to move them. I think the large global companies have taken it out of the realm of art and made it into a science, a cold numbers game. A 10 cent rise in the minimum wage in the US moves through the computers and results in 1000 people losing their jobs in the US the next day and 1000 new jobs created in India the day after.

There are gaps to be filled on the Mar S&P near 1290, the S&P tends to fill the gaps in the direction of the major trend first. If 1290 stops the advance we could be in for a serve drop, if not next target wuld be 1340, I tried buying the Jan oex 610 at a 1/2 on Thurs, they got down to 7/8 which I thought was to expensive, I think Fri's close was 6 1/2, it doesn't pay to be shy in this market.

Every Second of Every Day! ( But they STILL will never launch. )

What's a CAFR? A Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Prepare to be stunned. This is a doozy.

You need real audio to listen to the following:
http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/98archives.stm
Choose the December 11th broadcast with Walter Burien

What's a CAFR? A Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Prepare to be stunned. This is a doozy.

You need real audio to listen to the following:
http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/98archives.stm
Choose the December 11th broadcast with Walter Burien

Can't listen to that on my webtv. Could you summarize the main points? Sounds pretty interesting.

Does'nt make much difference with Kitco.

do know the Chinese control both ends of the Canal...and N. Korea ain't no cream puff...its all in print right from the military...

should have read...can't...oops...

on with the Canal, and apparently neither does the government or the military or at least there appears to be some hard disagreements...one minute I am reading about China and the Canal, then the Southern Command says we've moved everything to Miami and it is not a tactical nor strategic problem anymore and of course the billions of dollars everybody and their brother's brother is fighting for...

So scratch this from history...totally...about the only thing concrete I can find on the canal, which everyone now agrees upon...is that it is still there...

Thanks for the analysis of S&P Calls. I have some Dow March Puts ( 88,72,68 ) . I may just sit tight until February, for these and not buy anything else ( indices ) .

The rule of law in the United States is what keeps these multinationals from moving. You certainly would not want to be based out of Indonesia and have the government nationalize you. Europe could be an option but they are very socialist in nature and would frown on exporting jobs.

The multinationals could form their own country like the Bahamas but they dont trust each other enough. No, it is the laws of the United States which gives a corporation the warm fuzzies. It is the laws which should restrict moving production overseas. Tariffs and subsidies are but the other side of the coin to allowing U.S. run factories overseas.

Why do we have minimum wage laws and OSHA and discrimination laws and workmans comp for U.S. citizens and then allow Nike to fire 8,000 Americans in order to break all U.S. labor laws overseas? Is it that we value the life of a Chinese worker less? If so, what about the American worker who had all these protections in his UAW job only to have to take a manual labor job after GM closes his factory and moves to South America? Where is his value?

This globalization is disharmonious to our previous policies. Or do we just believe that we have moved to a higher plane where others can do the dirty work leaving American workers to all become highly paid service and information workers?

In reality, it is the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich being subsidized by the American taxpayer and American legal system.

Steve