Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, and he is a Dem...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Mike Shelller: Isn't it fitting that WJC will support the markets with Social Security income 'tax' funds that have been going into the public coffers for as long as I can remember! I guess that means that the actions of the PPT have now been legitimized. They can 'come out' as they say in the vernacular.

Seriously, how does WJC expect to spend us into prosperity by putting nonexistent Social Security funds into the markets? This money is being used to keep the annual federal deficit from going into the red.

My take on this is that it is a political ploy with no substance. WJC and Congress will both play 'chicken' on this one -- each side waiting for the other side to make a substantive plan -- so that the other side can shoot it down. The Republicans are learning to play WJC's game.

Mike -- have you noticed what has been happening to the market breadth indicator? Steadily downhill since Spring 98. When the Internet/computer rally fizzles, there may be nothing else to step in and fill the gap.

I am beginning to think JP has it right -- that we are heading into a big-time deflationary mode given what is happening to the Commodity price index ( CRY0 ) -- it is testing its bottom once again. Perhaps the markets are anticipating future Brazilian or South American events. I find it hard to tell when the other shoe will fall.

JP: I maintain my healthy scepticism about which way gold will go if we have another major financial collapse. My guess is that the dollar price of gold will dip every time a ( non-US ) nation drastically devalues. Between devaluations, gold may go up, but it will be the Tsunami gold surfers ride of a lifetime -- with more than a lifetimes worth of potential wipeouts for the unwary.

Right now gold is not really rising in US dollar terms. But -- it is a better bet than commodities, and doing better every month -- mostly due to the downward trend of commodities.

I think the gold markets will have to wait for the next mini-rally in commodity prices. This one was cut short by the Brazil crisis.

The ill named "concience of the senate" ( an oxymoron, if there ever was one ) , has been hanging around Kitco. That was one topic this morning. -Too bad they are such dullards, and cannot get the drift of the golf posts.

chicknlickinman....

when the student is ready....the teacher will appear......


i've fished for 6 months with gullye foyle.....
only one was ready.....gullye was ready...
yet knew it not....

who? who here is ready for the future? chaos and flux
are around the next turn.....ALLABOARD!

do chickens have lips?

cherokee!;....reader.of.the.dictionary.tambien!

Tantalus
I say, old bean, who's a superb aurator? I dare say I am the only aurator, [unique, mois, and 'umble] I'll leave it up to you to add any epithet you choose.

Perhaps the words you are looking for is orator? From Latin orare= to speak, particularly to speak about prayer, in other words: to deliver a sermon.

aurator, from Au + orare, to speak, particularly to speak about gold, in other words: to deliver a speach.

Here endeth the lesson.

seems as though hillary clinton has suddenly
lost her zen for having rhodham publicized
as part of her 'official' name.

hillary rhodham clinton......

where art thou?

This Hollings dude has had so many miles of highways to nowhere built at our expense, that Pennsylvania has had to double it's road taxes to build fences to keep the West Viginia road crews from encroaching on the cornfields of their neighbor state.
He also has been instrumental in shifting the FBI projects to his state. That's bad for the non-governmental people of that state, not to mention the rest of us.

PLANTS SHOW THE MIDAS TOUCH to scientists going for gold.
Tim Radford. Science editor..

New Zealand scientists have proposed the ultimate garden richness..gold leaf. They have used a little salad plant called pot herb mustard to soak up gold from the soil & concentrate it.
All plants absorb trace elements as they grow,& a numbere are being tested for cleaning up industrially polluted soils in mining districts. A microbe called THIOBACILlus FERRO-OXIDANS is regularly used to concentrate copper ores from low grade ores. But this is the first time anyone has gathered gold with a sickle.
Robert Brooks & his fellow soil scientists from Massey university in NZ report in Nature Today, that they have identified "hyper accumulator" plants which take up 100 times as much of a particular element from the soil as other plants.
The scientists helped the process along by sprinkling a chemical called ammonium thiocyanate on soil from around the old Waihi goldfield on NZ North Isl. This turned the precious metal into a soluble substance that plants could take up.
They did tests with plants potted in compost dusted with gold. Several species were tried including chicory. Impatiens,better known as busy lizzy, & brassica juncea or pot herb mustard, a favourite for oriental stir frys. After 7 days of growth, the plants had their stems & leaves snipped off. The material was dried & assayed for gold.
All showed signs of the midas touch. But the brassica got the gold medal for hyper accumulation- one specimen soaked up 57 micrograms of gold per gram of dried plant. The scientists worked out the economics of what they called phytoeextraction. You could get 20 tons of plant tissue from a hectare of soil. More than $3500 would be needed to pepare the soil with ammonium thiocyanate, but with gold at $300/ ounce you would make money as soon as the plants concentrated the gold at the rate of 17 micrograms /gram of dried leaf.
Even chicory would do the trick, on old mine tailings. & you would make more money selling the rest of the plant for fuel

GOT GARDEN GLOVES????

From a Canadian Press article in my newspaper today.

By Kirk Makin

TORONTO - Federal government lawyers launch a high-stakes battle in the
Supreme Court of Canada Wednesday to uphold Revenue Canada's extraordinary powers to delve into citizens' financial affairs.

further into the article...

In a brief to the Supreme Court, Justice Department lawyers argue that even if the court rules special inquiries unconstitutional, they are justified in a system of government that depends so profoundly on tax revenue.

even further along...

Investigators can subpoena individuals and sieze documents in the course of an inquiry, despite the absence of any requirement to persuade an impartial judicial officer that they have reasonable and probable grounds for their demands. It is a power even police don't have.

In its 1997 ruling, the Federal Court of Appeal remarked in no uncertain
terms that Revenue Canada can use inquiries as a back-door method of
acquiring evidence in what is really a criminal matter - while at the same time avoiding the rigid safeguards that apply to actual criminal
investigations.

Well, I guess if a supreme court ruled it is legal to have child pornography, then why not for Revenue Canada to trample all over our personal rights. At least they are consistent in their stupidity.

Clintler's SS plan is a ponzi scheme?

from a very dumb kiwi ( I believe physical gold will one day be extremely valuable ) How dumb is that

Sometime ago ( maybe 20 months or so ) Nasa announced that they had discovered a lot of water on the moon and they could use it for fuel for spacecraft to visit other planets .
Helloooooo.... water is fuel ?????
Tesla and cold fusion ?????
surely not

Maybe this is why oil is cheap

What a bunch of arseholes are all politicians and all military .

We have just extradited from NZ a UK criminal for massive fraud he was producing conterfiet smart cards to enable people to view pay TV channels for free

He is a Hero

Citizens of the world ripped off by Telecoms , Sky TV , Power and water companies .etc etc


"Allons a la Patriots un Joer d'gloir et arrive "

sorry about my french

But this cycle ends with off with their heads ......

Bring on mademoiselle le guillotine

seeing that my brother married a maori lady I hereby claim the right to use the term "as good as Gold " under my families customary fishing rights as detailed in the special hithertofore undiscovered indecipherable unwritten Maori copy of the "Trick or Treaty of Waitangi" .

Kia ora

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/~www/opdpen.cgi

January 19, 1998 $5.493 Trillion
January 13, 1999 $5.612 Trillion
---------------
-$119 billion

What I think they could do would be to take the ice on the moon and put it in a greenhouse type building until it absorbed enough heat from the sun to become liquid.

Then they could generate electricity with solar cells ( or even use concentrated solar energy to boil some of the water and make steam and generate power that way ) . Then they could use the electricity to electrolyze the water into hydrogen and oxygen.

They could then put the 2 gasses into separate tanks outside of the greenhouse ( and shaded from the sun ) so the energy of the gas could radiate away ( yes, even in the vacuum of space - Mozel don't start with me :- ) ) until it reached almost absolute zero ( the temperature of space ) and it was in a liquid form.

They could then take this liquid hydrogen and burn it in the presence of the liquid oxygen and have basically the same rocket fuel they use now.

No Tesla or cold fusion.

Lefty
ROFL. Like the traditional trout and salmon fisheries, and the radio frequencies, Levi Strauss and Holdens. Give my regards to the whanau.

Didja see Lion breweries just bought out Mac's breweries?

But water is fuel.......
and they know it and so did Tesla
we are all being F...ked
and the planet is seriously ill

If that wasn't bribery I don't don't what is.

http://www.bday.co.za/99/0120/company/c11.htm

Macs gold is as good as .....
but I have to admit
my favourite ale is Black Mac

"We will save Social Security by investing it in the stock market"

Really Translates as:

"We will save the bubble stock market ( for the immediate benefit of my Wall Street buddies at Goldman, Merrill, Chase, Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, Lehman, LTCM, etc. ) by investing social security monies into it."

Thanks.

F*

.

Sorry, I missed your drift. I couldn't see your irony from here in Canada.

Have you heard of Yul Brown and Brown's Gas? Very interesting properties and it is just made out of water, but instead of keeping the Hydrogen and Oxygen separated, he allows them to stay mixed in their original ratios. Pure Brown's Gas won't explode, but rather implodes to go back to water at 1/1000 the volume of the gas. Oh, yeah, people use it to refine gold ore. ( had to stay on topic )

take care its Mother Earth looking after her own...read on..
PNG land owners threaten to shut down OK Tedi copper mine

Papua New Guinea land owners have threatened to shut down the OK Tedi
copper mine.

Richard Dinnen reports, the land-owners are angry at delays in reviewing an
agreement under which the mine operates.

The agreement between local land owners and the Papua New Guinea
Government sets out benefits the land owners receive for allowing mining on
their land. It should have been reviewed in 1996 and land owners say they've
waited patiently but the government shows no signs of beginning the review.
Land owners spokesman, Brook Pitalok, says the review must begin by the
end of the month or the mine will be closed. The OK Tedi mining company
has warned that shutting down the mine would be illegal. OK Tedi is no
stranger to controversy -- land owners previously took legal action against
parent company BHP over environmental damage.

Rang up my stockwatch portfolio of canadian jrs. this PM ...all green in noticeable volume..first time since last ..April...what is this, a trick?

But he reminded investors that gold, which soared to the $800 an ounce range in the hyperinflation of the late 1970s and which traded at $400 an ounce a few years ago, has been trading at $288 per ounce recently. Many people who dreamed of wealth from gold found instead they owned a wasting asset -- which paid no dividends and could be tough to store safely and sell.



"Gold has been a terrible investment because it has lost money relative to inflation," said Tedstrom.



until we are able to spend our gold accounts electronically ( gold visa ) ( e -gold ) etc. I believe gold will not have a future.



Have the Banks set up gold only accounts where currency can be drawn against the these accounts electronically with fractional charges ( not some 2-5% of transaction ) . Deposit gold the same way or deposit cash the same way. The banks could loan money against these assets earning interest income and paying a % to the customer. even loaning the gold to foreign CB's having the CB pay interest in local currency. I believe a great redistribution of gold among all nations and central banks needs to take place to really stabilize the currency markets. This will create a bigger market for gold ( possibly silver ) making it possible for people to invest in local currency and not have their investments eroded by inflation or devaluation.

FARFEL: I didn't hear the speech. Did he REALLY say "We will save Social Security by investing it in the stock market." I thought SS was already gutted in a shell game to pay for other social programs. Nonetheless, if there is actually mony to be invested, I hope cooler heads prevail on that one. Does Clinton really want everyone to lose all of their SS money in a stock market downturn? What a sign of a mania. Sheesh!

I'm guilty of paraphrasing the guy...Clintbone simply proposed that a PORTION of social security be invested in the stock market.

However, once a portion is approved, then over time, I would expect The Street will push to invest the entirety.

Farfel

P.S. Hi, Sam.

FARFEL: Even a portion is, to my way of thinking, a crackpot idea. Of course, I have somewhat libertarian leanings, so I think the whole of SS is a crackpot idea to begin with. Still, what's done with whatever money is curretly left in the SS fund is of grave importance to the remnant of those who might actually get anything back from it. To see it all get trashed just to keep the First Sociopath in office for two more years is a singular tragedy.

Wow! Did anyone comment on the Commitments of Traders Report that came out for Silver. Is it a typo? I don't think I've ever seen it move that much in one week. The commercial short to long ratio has been chugging along at about 2 to 1 recently. Last week it shot out of a cannon to almost 4 to 1. See the following link:

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/cmxsof.htm

My experience is that you pay attention to what the commercials are doing.

Strad: There is nothing in the SS Trust Fund but stinking IOU's.

fundaMETAList: That's what I thought. What would Clinton use to pump into the Stock Market. IOU's? Probably. Just print up some more cash, eh?
BTW - for ALL: thought this would be of amusing interest:

60 degrees - Californians put their sweaters on.
50 degrees - Miami residents turn on the heat.
45 degrees - Vermont residents go to outdoor concert.
40 degrees - You can see your breath
Californians shiver uncontrollably
Minnesotans go swimming.
35 degrees - Italian cars don't start.
32 degrees - Water freezes.
30 degrees - You plan your vacation in Australia.
25 degrees - Ohio water freezes
Californians weep pitiably
Minnesotans eat ice cream
Canadians go swimming.
20 degrees - Politicians begin to talk about the homeless
New York City water freezes
Miami residents plan vacation farther south.
15 degrees - French cars don't start
cat insists on sleeping in your bed with you.
10 degrees - You need jumper cables to get the car going.
5 degrees - American cars don't start.
0 degrees - Alaskans put on T-shirts.
-10 degrees - German cars don't start
eyes freeze shut when you step outside.
-15 degrees - You can cut your breath and use it to build an igloo

Arkansans stick tongue on metal objects
Miami residents cease to exist.
-20 degrees - Cat insists on sleeping in pajamas with you
politicians actually do something about the homeless
Minnesotans shovel snow off roof
Japanese cars don't start.
-25 degrees - Too cold to think
you need jumper cables to get the driver going.
-30 degrees - You plan a two week hot bath
Swedish cars don't start.
-40 degrees - Californians disappear
Minnesotans button top button
Canadians put on sweater
your car helps you plan your trip South.
-50 degrees - Congressional hot air freezes
Alaskans close the bathroom window.
-80 degrees - Polar bears move South
Green Bay Packer fans order hot cocoa at the game.
-90 degrees - Lawyers put their hands in their own pockets.
-100 degrees - Hell freezes over
Clinton finally tells all.

I agree the change in Silver commercial position is incredible. Further, I don't think they look at the technicals ( charts ) very much in their decision-making. OK, so what do they know that we don't know. What do they see in the immediate future that will have such an impact on the price of Silver? Is it likely that Argentina has large quantities to dump on the market? Or does Brazil? I believe Ted Butler says there are no large above-ground secret hoards. I think it was Martin Armstrong who stated there were large amounts held privately in London. Why would an actual hoard be a price-threatening situation now, while prices are low? A savvy holder would not want to dump a large amount on the market these days, which would only depress the price even further. Does anyone have ideas on this?

...at its high was worth 1/4 of the Australian All Ordinaries ( just reported on the noose ) .

That's a forking lot of books.
................................
Tulips anyone???

You forgot:

27 degrees -- beer freezes. Aussies panic.

I heard today that a large regional ( western U.S. ) trucking company has recently closed some terminals and laid off 200 drivers. ( Viking Freight )
The machine-shops in my immediate area, some of which cater to Silicon Valley, have all reported slowdowns and layoffs within the past three months. The labor shortage in California is fast-evaporating. Sales of Beanie Babies and their ilk have slowed tremendously, and Furbies seem like only a minor blip. Even my friend in Hong Kong says that he cannot get foreign orders for his products, and his business is down by two-thirds. [Side note: Sixty days ago my Hong Kong friend asked me to order two Kodak items for him, totalling over $US4000. I am embarrassed to be a citizen of the same country as Kodak is located. They and their imbecile "distributors" screwed around so long that now business is bad and the order has been cancelled. A chance to balance the trade a bit, and they blow it.] Every indicator I see tells me we are on the way down, folks. By the way, my friend's family owns a gold shop in Hong Kong, and they tell me that they have had only a handfull of inquiries about Platinum over the years, and there is currently no interest.

TITANIC VIDEO: Jack surrenders to an icy death.
CLINTON VIDEO: Bill goes home to Hillary.
........................
I'll take the frigid North Atlantic, thankyou.

...
...
I watched parts of the 'speach' today.
Strange how only a bit over 1/3rd of the audience stood and clapped.
United??? States of America.
..................................
They should have packed the audience with Amazon.com shareholders if they wanted everyone to stand up.

Buba's Tietmeyer says volatile, short term oriented money supply would pose risks; artificially low interest rates are a double edged sword; long term oriented money policy is key to boosting investment; stable exchange rates cannot be ordered by decree; doubts markets would believe in policy support for euro, dollar fx system; market transparency, supervision better ways to stabilize fx markets.

I am of the belief that what we see when we look at the commitment of traders is only part of the entire picture. Suppose for example those commericals bought alot of of silver and were stock piling it for future use. I can think of a number of reasons for accounting and balance sheet purposes why they might take out short positions to hold the price of their inventory fixed irregardless of where they thought the price of silver was going.

Additionally with all the derivative markets, options and so forth what we might be seeing is just one side of the trade for many of the commercial shorts.

The open interst numbers seem to suggest that commercials have sold to speculators during this rally over $5. On the gold side it appears that commericals have been buying while the public is shorting. What, gold is going to go up and silver down.??? The commericials have been on the bullish side in gold for a long time and the price is little changed - for silver the reverse is true though I think it has done a little better.

In silver there seems to be buying on the breaks back to around $5. I wouldn't be surprised to see that buying evaporate, suddenly, the stops get hit and we get a down spike giving agressive buyers the opportunity to average down, buying into the weak long panic on the cheap.

Bottom line: I think ( and frankly there is an element of hope in my reasoning ) that the commitment of traders is a key hole look at a bigger picture all of which is not for our viewing.

( 1/3 stand up and applaud ) .
........................
uh huh

http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/9812/end1227.ram

Newfoundland forecasted to lead 1999 @ 3.5%. British Columbia to go the other way. How quickly fortunes change. From have not to have. No more need to murder dem seals. Flipper pie continues as # 1 dessert.

http://www.cs.brown.edu/research/ai/dynamics/tutorial/Documents/CrackingWallStreet.html

Sure hope the tulips rally a little bit, I didn't get filled on any of my bids for PUT options yesterday and don't want to miss all the juicy downside potential. Broker, as always, thinks I'm doing the wrong thing, which I find comforting for some reason. Go Internet Tulips! At least for a few more days.

I read that same paper one day this summer, interesting. After thinking about it a bit, I figure all the fancy algorithms and AI applications that chew on the market just make for more efficiency. I've never believed all the stuff about the markets immediately discounting everything, that anything that was to be known could be known by looking at the market. I figure the more efficient the markets get, however, the closer they approximate reality. I would guess that the best traders of crop futures are probably watching models created out of sensor data attached directly to the plants, the plants probably tell the traders exactly how the crops will do for the year. It sort of takes the fun out of it. I'd like to read some more about another process I've heard about, one where you make associations with a single piece of data and figure out what a large system is doing, something like having a sensor that detects how many trains go by on the train tracks and using that to figure out how much steel is being created in Pittsburg.

Is there a large market for data that helps forcast price movements ? What I mean is, if you could put together a system that, say, made the gold market more efficient, would anyone be willing to pay for the data ? Say if you could deliver data that said exactly how many ounces were coming out of the ground, how they were being delivered, when, where, created models based on the data, etc, are there customers willing to pay for that kind of data ?

discussion on Kitco. It's true that Kitco posts should be about gold, and a lot of political discussion would be off track- but remember that, as Bill Buckler says, 'Gold is a Political Metal!'

Gold and oil are two commodities that are inextricably linked to politics, and I'm afraid one has to keep track of politics if one wishes to understand them.

- Steve

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnQvI0b8ZvdCYmdK2&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

New lows coming for the CRB? Dow 10,000 before gold $315??

The stock market bulls and deflationist might want to watch the Dollar Index. 93 critical line of support, currently at 94.50. Bonds would not look pretty if they were to take out and close below 125-27, currently at 126-8.

Till those points are broken the equity bull seems on firm ground and the silver and gold "pheonixes" ah what would you say...."grounded" like Iraq's airforce.????

In line with its newly announced policy of investing a portion of American taxpayers' Social Security money in the stock market, the US government is looking for portfolio managers.
Buyers of Junior Gold Shares need not apply.

Rest assured, however, that this scheme is not as menacing as it seems. Actually, when you think of it, that mere 24% of the funds tagged for the big board ( or the bulletin board as time goes on ) can be held cagily in reserve until Alan Greenspan makes some kind of remark like "Irrational Exuberance," or "Incorrigible Incontinence," or anything sounding vaguely like a reprimand and party pooper.

Then, after the Dow has dutifully plunged a few thousand points, Sam steps in with his buy orders.
A Federally created "Buying Opportunity."

Don't you feel reassured now?

Of course we all know what's going to happen. Down the road, after a few miscues, the Guv will be behind the 8 ball. Stox will be down, and everyone's SS account will be in deficit. Can't you just imagine the reports to Congress and the nation?

"While our E-Bay is down to about 18, and our AOL seems to be basing now at 10, we see this as temporary weakness and are issuing an "accumulate" directive, after mainytaining an aggressive "hold" for the past 3 years.

We are also very interested in beginning tentative purchases of the gold we sold several years ago. Now that the yellow metal has broken the $3,500 mark, we feel that a bull market may be in progress and that gold should be in everyone's portfolio, including your Social Security account."

Duane Archer's website has an interesting paper on market forecasting using cellular automata - you need to email him for a copy of the paper 'Is the Market a Computer?'. He appears to be a pioneer in this field.

Remember the 'Game of Life' where cells replicate, etc. Well, he seems to have a theory that maps this game to the markets via certain proprietary functions.

The site is at http://www.brjostan.com/

First of all, I want to own up to one of my worst calls in history - coffee.
My bullish call on coffee a couple of weeks ago was horrendous. The planet I was watching in the Coffee First Trade Chart DID do its work - only it seems to have been just the opposite of what I expected. The time windows work, only its often very presumptuous to try to guess HOW they'll work.

Longterm there is hope, but real-time this was a frightful blowout.

I will be very disappointed if Realistic does not feature this prediction sometime in the future in one of his/her reality checks. I think I've now earned an appearance in one of them.

Also, I must say, I am very disappointed in Kitcoites for not drinking as much coffee as possible to help make my prediction successful. Heaven knows I can't drink another drop!
I suspect all these Aussies and Canadians have been drinking tea and contributing to this debacle. I'll remember that.

Grounded but, strangely, still not buried.

D'accord mon ami, mais le chat 'Monica, Clinton' etc. tout les jours: vous j'assure, c'est betise. A cause de ce que dont nous sommes parle je devene fou. Appelez un taxi, s'il vous plait. Vite, Etienne! Achate d'or toujours! ( Et de l'argent! )
"It is almost impossible to overestimate the unimportance
of most things." ---John Logue

All I want to know from you regarding coffee, Mike, is what is that special brand you drink most days and where do you get it?

http://www.state.sd.us/governor/FILES/sos99c/transcript.htm

Y2k is at the bottom but his comments worth a read???

. Ive deliberately bit my lip for the last two years on this subject matter, and now we are down to 12 months. We face an absolute catastrophe in the world because of this problem. On the other hand, it may not be much of anything. The biggest problem is, we dont know. But dont take anybody lightly that tells you that the roof could come falling in. I can tell you today that if year 2000 hit today, the electric grid that serves South Dakota would go down. It would not stay up, and dont believe anybody that tells you it would. Now, by the year 2000, it might, but today it will go down. Year 2000 doesnt come in the middle of June when the temperature is decent. Its coming on December 31 in the middle of winter.

jims, ChasAbar: Thanks for the comments. I've watched these figures fairly closely over the past 2 years and my experience is that when the commercials short to long ratio moves to where it has now we get a big downdraft in silver within a 3 to 6 week period. Problem is I don't chart these numbers. Does anyone out there maintain a chart of the silver commitments?

at the risk of appearing effete before all of Kitco, I grind my own beans every morning - 2/3 Kenya AA, 1/3 French Roast.

Then I simmer it in a small pot with just enuf water for 1 1/2 cups of coffee ( the balance is for 85 year old Aunt Virginia who likes a demitasse in the a.m. ) and filter it through a "sock" ( cloth cone-shaped filter ) .
Sort of a combination Latin/American style I guess.

Now are you sorry you asked?

Has anyone read Firmages book now available on the net in the condensed version ??


http://members.aol.com/ufoseek/truth.htm

I am just at the end of part one

gold appears to be edging into that breakdown toward 280, while silver may follow to around 495.

Hopefully the 280ish area for gold will put in a triple bottom and set up for the rally we have all been awaiting.

Market TV: Someone just said on CNBC that "real interest rates" were at historic highs, what did they mean by that ? I thought interest rates were down there, that the lower rates were pretty low.

Cage Rattler: Wow, the Game of Life, that brings back memories. Those must be some pretty nifty cellular automata models if they're being used to model the market, break out the connection machine I guess. *grin*.

I'm thinking the CRB puts in a new low today, gold down. Also thinking the Internet stocks will be up today along with MSFT and all the other techs. I think gold will put in a new low, 280 won't hold.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

I think that means is the current interest rate - rate of inflation.

Thanks a bunch, you reminded me that I could look it up *grin*. Here's what the Barron's book has to say about "real interest rates".

REAL INTEREST RATE current interest rate minus inflation rate. The real interest rate may be calculated by comparing interest rates with present or, more frequently, with predicted inflation rates. The real interest rate gives investors in bonds and other fixed-rate instruments a way to see whether their interest will allow them to keep up with or beat the erosion in dollar values caused by inflation. With a bond yielding 10% and inflation of 3%, for instance, the real interest rate of 7% would bring a return high enough to beat inflation. If inflation were at 15%, however, the investor would fall behind as prices rise.

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook, Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2558096160-235

the moon would implode into Clitton....the heavy master of a sickly universe, indeed.
Awaken! and now the bloom has left the rose...the aroma has forgotten its friend, the java....and our silence earns us a cheating liar for our presidunce. why not embrace this age of ambivalence...listen, the nearing mockings of a buzzard.

aaaaaaaaaaheeeeeeeeee! sqwaque!

Mike - I just knew that you must drink some kind of high-test in the morning due to some of the stratospheric posts that you have made at this time of day. But what the heck has that got to do with FEET? BTW - Your spelling is atrocious.

During November and part of December we could get his Wave{s} of the Future{s}. Someone put on this discussion page the password to access his daily analysis on gold, the S&P, and bonds. Anyone know the new password, it was a pretty good report?

I've been a lurkin here a few months and find it mostly interesting.
Mssrs Gollum and his leavers etc, got to titter.
IMHAO [A for Amateur]and contrary to this morinings gloom, Silver looks like it's going to try and move forward a litle. We shall see.
Anyway,hello everyone!
Life should be full of strangeness, like a rich painting, enjoy.

CAFFE NOIR - That's strong coffee from the region where the Italian and French Riviera meet. ;- )

AMTRAK trains running the New York - Phili - Conn. section are electrified because folks don't like the diesel emmisions for the diesel- electric locos. The electrified corridor uses a 25,000 volt catenary overhead. I believe future plans have them going to a 50,000 volt overhead and new locomotives. I rode the train once down to Virginia. On the return trip, the electric loco had a breakdown and it took the train folks over an hour to firgure what 'wire' was burned ( it was the diameter of my wrist ) . Yep, it's pretty darn reliable... :- ) ) Sometimes they even clean the bathrooms. :~ )

and is applauded for 'his' ideas. Truely amazing. The stupid party does it again...

What is it exactly that makes you think "Silver looks like it's going to try and move forward a litle". Is it something in the volume or chart pattern? Just curious. Very interested at present in near term direction of Silver.

Realistic: BE SURE TO QUOTE ME ON THIS IN DECEMBER!!! People will panic for the same reason that these problems havent been fixed: They dont understand the issue.

The huge problem is in the financial systems. In the last ~20 years or so, financial folks have taken control of most companies. They rely heavily on their customized data and reports. There is ALWAYS tension and miscommunication between financial and systems departments. Most CIOs are afraid to give financial people any type of bad news. When the finance people want a new report completed next week, the CIO tells them "ok", and then it takes three months to complete. Same with Y2K, except this time its a much, much larger issue.

Ive never worked in South Dakota, but I know that the state of Texas ( and a few other states ) wont be ready for Y2K!

Other than the financial problems, there will be only some inconveniences due to Y2K. Elevators, security equipment, and building controls can be over-ridden with manual or local controls. Your office may get a bit hot or cold. You may have to take the stairs instead of the elevator. Your local bank may have to cut the safe open and put a full-time security guard on duty. A few of us may go to the hospital and cant get a CAT scan. ( Your car doesnt care about the date. )

If the electric grid goes down, THAT can be fixed. In a worse case scenario, theyll shut down the electricity in your area for 6 hours every day until they get it fixed. That would cut total demand by ~25%. I understand that phone networks arent terribly dependent on date functions, although there may be some intermittent problems.

I'm looking at various Stochastics: 30 and 60 min, day and weekly and it looks like it's trying to bounce up. One can hope, I have not earnt my leavers yet.

Well if you ask me, gold already has more bottoms than a roomfull of Hooter's Girls! Seriously, you might dig out your chart of the mid 1980's, 85-87 in particular and the present state of affairs begins to look familiar. I just hope it goes up to $450+ like it did then.

We had a temporary login/password which was gratiously supplied
by Silverbaron. Unfortunately, it has expired. I think the idea was
for Peter to give us a taste of what his commentary was like in hopes
of a few new subscriptions...

The grid can be fixed? I am worried about that. The grid won't matter unless the trains can get coal to the power plants or gas through the pipes. I mean I can believe that the grid may work or be fixable, but will they be able to feed the generators fuel? Will distribution really work?

http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

APH - a repost from last night:
I keep looking at this stock market and the worsening A/D chart, record bullish sentiment and toppy put/call ratios on one side, and the apparently solid long term downward trend in interest rates on the other. I was wondering

1 ) can this market fall in a big way caused by deteriorating breadth while rates are still trending lower?
2 ) the underlying premise of Elliott wave is swings of optimism and pessimism - do you give credence to this, or only
interest rates?
3 ) do you think Y2K is a wall against which this market will come unstuck? If so, that would appear to make leap puts a
good bet anywhere around these levels.
I would appreciate any comments you may have.

By Julia C. Martinez Denver Post Staff Writer

Jan. 20 - A Denver city official says city residents would be "prudent'' to stock up to four days' supply of food and water at the end of the year in case of year 2000 computer problems.

David J. Bufalo, Denver's point man on the so-called Y2K issue, also said it makes sense to have blankets, batteries and portable radios on hand as
Dec. 31 approaches in case critical computer systems fail. He said residents should prepare for the millennium the way they would "a severe snowstorm, when you're stuck in the house for a couple of days.''

"The world is not going to end, but there will be some disruptions,'' Bufalo said Tuesday. "It's just the prudent way to play it.''

More at:
http://www.denverpost.com/news/y2k/y2k0120.htm

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/murphy011899.html

servicing costs clearly are not sustainable indefinitely."

Gov't figures indicate that the Canadian CPI dropped from 1.2% down to
1.0 % last month. One percent in the threshold used by the Bank of
Canada to mark harmful deflationary trends in Canada.

Below 1% inflation, the prices in many consumer goods are actually falling, and consumers begin to perceive this and stop purchasing
in anticipation of even further price cuts. This feeds on itself
and collapses consumer demand and prices in a downward spiral.

The only remedy for this is a drop in interest rates to stimulate
consumer demand, but Canada cannot do this while the Federal Reserve
Board keeps American rates high. To lower in Canada is to place the
Canadian dollar at risk. So the world finacial crisis, as perpetrated
by the United States Federal Reserve Board is now deflating the American
economy's best foreign market. If the Market shrugged off the collapse
of Brazil, we shall see if they survive the meltdown of Canada.

Depression: coming to an economy near you.

I thought the Amtrak quip was a good one.
So many systems can be brought down by one breakdown within the system.
Auckland power and Melbourne gas excellent examples.
Also the San Franscisco power failure.

I suppose I'm just driving another nail into the coffin.

----
Year2000
Panic will be bad enough - yes and it's almost unavoidable.
It's already happening subtlely at the moment.
With gold, guns, grub and generators, it is quite evident.
Plus many other little sundry items.

In many places Y2k will only ammount to an insidious bug but I've a feeling that the greatest impact will come from offshore.
With 70% of the other contries in the toast category I think the real impact will not be felt to later - just like the Asia impact.

Wait till there is a flow on effect amongst these countries in their infrastructure, their commodities and their way of life.
Poverty has increased over 70% in Indonesia over the last year.
You can bet their productivity has fallen that much.

I'd guess that we'll have to wait till well into the second half of 2000 before we can start to glimpse some of the interconectivities and how they intereact with each other.

Y2k is not a US problem rather a global problem and the wave of problems unleashed will have a global effect.

And the lies keep slipping out.... political spiel..
Just like the stock and gold markets
Just how many people are being dupped....^o-o^

------------------
National Guard taken out of Y2K bills
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/tech/0120guard.asp

Y2K fixes on track, official says
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/tech/0115fixes.asp
"We're very confident in the overall state preparedness"

Even though Wisconsin is amongst the bottom 10 states

----
Foes Target 'Know Your Customer'
http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/17404.html
-----

What's going on...??
One sector of news that is very vague is the effects of Y2k on mining operations.
The few filtered pieces that have come out are not favourable.
Why not more or is the mining sector not newsworthy.

Already BHP and RIO have announced problems within their mining operations and are talking about shutting mines down.

Who's betting that their favorite little junior will survive the day???

http://www.gmlets.u-net.com/go/cc99/

Click on the cc99 - top right hand corner..

By Steve Lipsher Denver Post Staff Writer

Jan. 20 - Leadville's last operating mine, Asarco's Black Cloud, announced on Tuesday that it will shut down at the end of the month, spelling a sudden end to the historic and colorful industry that gave the region its identity for 140 years.
http://www.denverpost.com/business/biz0120.htm

tis morning, except for a bothersome increase in one year rates. This
may indicate some producer hedging. Silver showed minor increases
right across the board. This suggests tightening in the silver markets,
but not suficient to turn off the silver carry.

I'm sorry these comments are so vague but all my figures are at home,
and Kitco was down this morning when I attempted to post the lease
figures.

One month lease rates for both gold and silver are still below 1%.
With one month T-bills at about 4.5%, the forward rate is still 3.5%
and this means the gold/silver carry is still on. Some CBs are leasing
gold at near .5% one month rates.

Leasing gold at firesale prices to artificially enhance supply and
depress POG serves to artifically enhance the value of the USD.
The question is will the powers that be play this game until the
POG is driven to depression levels. Will the ECB let them?

WASHINGTON - While calling the
economy's current performance
"outstanding," Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed
worries Wednesday that the high-flying
stock market could be headed for a
tumble that could spell serious trouble
down the road. Greenspan, in testimony
before the House Ways and Means
Committee, did not directly indicate
whether the Fed would be changing
interest rates any time soon. But his
expressions of concern about the stock
market gave support to views that the
central bank is not likely to rush to cut
rates further unless global turmoil
triggers another severe downturn on
Wall Street.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/mds028.htm

Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% in stocks since 4/21/94
Graduated Strategy - 75% stocks, 25% money markets as of 12/21/98
Timing Strategy - 0% stocks, 100% money markets as of 1/19/99
SuperBear Strategy - 100% in money markets as of 12/14/98

// -- COMMENTARY -- //

The new year has been a volatile one for the stock market so far. The
first week of January saw a strong rally as the SP500 rose 3.9%. Last
week was almost a mirror image of the previous week, with the SP500
falling 5.4% through Thursday. Then on Friday the market rallied
sharply.

So where does this leave the market? On 12/31/98 our Timing Strategy
moved out of stocks and into money markets. This was primarily due to
weakening market internals in November and December. Those market
internals strengthened quite a bit in the last week of December and
during the rally in the first week of January. This was a strong

positive for the market, and the primary catalyst for the Signal
Strength to increase to 14 ( which caused the Timing Strategy to
move back into stocks ) .

Which leads us to last week's pullback. The drop was a quick reminder
that markets move in more than one direction, and it was not
unexpected. The market had rallied quite a long way since its last
little pullback in mid December. The big question is whether the
pullback was a minor bump in the market rally, or the beginning of a
more dramatic pullback. At this point, we are leaning towards the
former scenario. The market was pretty "overbought" going into that
pullback - it had simply come too far, too fast. The lows on last
Thursday had most of the earmarks of a good intermediate term bottom -
the kind that can launch us up to new highs. Couple that with the
strong market internals at the new highs in the first week of January,
and it looks like this market can go higher.

Now the market is still at a tricky spot, and our model certainly
reflects that - at 14 it is sort of sitting on the fence. The model's
Signal Strength could easily move several points in either direction.
Right now we suspect that the market is in good shape, and we expect
the Signal Strength will be moving up, not down.

I was especially shocked by Clintons plan to use taxes to match peoples savings for a federal matching funds program. What in the world is that? Where are the Republicans? Why dont they go into the public arena and mock these ideas for the socialism that they are? They keep quiet and try to defeat these measures in the dark back halls of congress but they dont appeal to the average American. No guts.

This was the most socialistic speech I have ever heard. Raise minimum wage. Government ownership of private corporations through the Social Security Equity Mutual Fund. Save Social Security. Fund Medicare. Save the baby boomer!

Steve

UNCONDITIONAL ACCEPTANCE
snip

We were standing in line, waiting to be served, when all of a sudden
everyone around us began to back away, and then even my husband did.
I did not move an inch...an overwhelming feeling of panic welled
up inside of me as I turned to see why they had moved.
As I turned around, I smelled a horrible "dirty body" smell,
and there standing behind me were two, poor homeless men. As I
looked down at the shortest gentleman, close to me, he was smiling.
His beautiful sky-blue eyes were full of God's Light as he searched
for acceptance. He said, "Good day" as he counted the few coins he
had been clutching. The second man fumbled with his hands as he stood
behind his friend. I realized the second man was mentally
deficient, and the blue-eyed gentleman was his salvation. I held my tears
as I stood there with them.

The young lady at the counter asked him what they wanted.
He said, "Coffee is all, Miss." because that was all they could
afford to be able to sit in the restaurant and warm up; they had
to buy something ..they just wanted to be warm. Then I really felt
it...a compulsion so great I almost reached out and embraced the
little man with the blue eyes. That is when I noticed all eyes in
the restaurant were set on me... judging my reaction. I smiled and
asked the young lady behind the counter to give me two more
breakfast meals on a separate tray. I then walked around the corner to the
table that the men had chosen as a resting spot. I put the tray on the
table and laid my hand on the blue eyed gentleman's cold hand. He looked
up at me, with tears in his eyes, and said, "Thank you." I leaned over,
began to pat his hand and said," I did not do this for you...God is here working
through me to give you hope." I started to cry as I walked away to
join my husband and son. When I sat down my husband smiled at me
and said, "That is why God gave you to me, honey....to give me hope."

snip
I graduated with one of the biggest lessons I would ever learn....
UNCONDITIONAL ACCEPTANCE.

Much love and compassion sent to each and every person
who may read this learn how to
LOVE PEOPLE AND USE THINGS - NOT
LOVE THINGS AND USE PEOPLE.
If you think this story has touched you in any way, please send
this to everyone you know.
May God bless you.

for gold.............. ( ohmy ) .

keep yer trigger fingers flexible..............V bottom ( ? ) .................

away......to w/w

nimble

tick-tock, tick-tock.........

It moved me *Big Time*, and I will pass it on. Thank you : )

But he reminded investors that gold, which soared to the $800 an ounce range in the hyperinflation of the late 1970s and which traded at $400 an ounce a few years ago, has been trading at $288 per ounce recently. Many people who dreamed of wealth from gold found instead they owned a wasting asset -- which paid no dividends and could be tough to store safely and sell.



"Gold has been a terrible investment because it has lost money relative to inflation," said Tedstrom.



Until we are able to transact our gold accounts electronically ( gold visa ) ( e -gold ) instead of hiding it under our matress etc. I believe gold will not have a future.



Have the Banks set up gold only accounts where currency can be drawn against the these accounts electronically with fractional charges ( not some 2-5% of transaction ) . Deposit gold the same way or deposit cash the same way. The banks could loan money against these assets earning interest income and paying a % to the customer. Even loaning the gold to foreign CB's and having the CB pay interest in local currency.

I believe a great redistribution of gold among all nations and central banks needs to take place to really stabilize the currency markets. This will create a bigger market for gold ( possibly silver ) making it possible for people to invest in local currency and not have their investments eroded by inflation or devaluation.

the-fin-who-shares....

the peopleo have no concept the service you freely give....
your posts help me remember my part in this up-coming issue....

y2k...

i worked for mobil oil ( 10yrs ) and houston lighting & power ( 2yrs ) ....

i installed the first electronic gas measurement devices for mobil in
'86. they control the transmission of natural gas into main trunklines
for processing and sale. the controllers are operated by set points
programmed into the electronic metering device.....the regulators have
safety set points for pressure and temperature extremes. if the pressure
of the pipeline exceeded 1075 psi the regulator would pneumatically close
the inlet valve...this in turn would cause all the gas wells in the field
which have high-pressure shut-downs, to react in a like manner and
AUTOMATICALLY close the wells....the wells in the field use a pneumatic
sensor and operator, and are independent of electronics....they can
be opened manually after the problem has been resolved.....ALL the other
fields feeding the main trunk-line would shut-down in a like fashion too.
these fields provide the plants with natural gas at constant pressure, temperature, specific gravity, and dew point... ( water content )

why would the pipeline ever exceed its' operating pressure?

i worked in HUGE cryogenic gas plants as well as in field ops....
some of these plants are 30+ years old....they process the gas
through distillation into ngl's such as methane, ethane, propane, and
butane--iso and normal--......these products in turn act as feed-stocks
for plastics, pharmaceuticals....etc...etc...these plants shut-down
when you sneeze! ANY minute change to ANY of the thousands of valves
controlled by an independent regulator.....or one networked to the
main computer, can cause an entire plant shut-down which takes days to
resolve and re-start.....when the old imbedded chips fail, they will
have to be FOUND.....YES...FOUND amongst the thousands of others.......
guess what? some of the schematics do not exist!

if the plants shut-down.....the fields shut-down.......if the fields
shut-down.....the plants shut-down......

working for houston lighting & power involved maintaining electrical
power plants BACK-UP FUEL SYSTEM as mandated by federal law....
we operated a pipeline that provided fuel oil to 7 generating plants
in the houston area.....ALL of the controllers we utilized ARE antiquated....these power plants ARE older than lazarus long! they
have imbedded chips out the kazoo!! ENTIRE DEVICES WILL HAVE
TO BE REPLACED in order to make the systems work....not just one chip
here...and one chip there.....no quick fix......

one device fails--- and creates and exponential down-stream bobble that
will blast the tettering beast into fibrillation....

don't be afraid of the lawn-mower blade!

y2k.......bullsh!t or fact.........all it takes is one ( 1 ) failure....
and the entire system crashes....forget the power grid.....they must
first fire the boilers to generate the electricity.....yar.....
it will never get to the grid!

cherokee!;....seeing.quite.clearly....an.for.miles.and.miles.and.miles..

the-fin-who-shares....

the peopleo have no concept the service you freely give....
your posts help me remember my part in this up-coming issue....

y2k...

i worked for mobil oil ( 10yrs ) and houston lighting & power ( 2yrs ) ....

i installed the first electronic gas measurement devices for mobil in
'86. they control the transmission of natural gas into main trunklines
for processing and sale. the controllers are operated by set points
programmed into the electronic metering device.....the regulators have
safety set points for pressure and temperature extremes. if the pressure
of the pipeline exceeded 1075 psi the regulator would pneumatically close
the inlet valve...this in turn would cause all the gas wells in the field
which have high-pressure shut-downs, to react in a like manner and
AUTOMATICALLY close the wells....the wells in the field use a pneumatic
sensor and operator, and are independent of electronics....they can
be opened manually after the problem has been resolved.....ALL the other
fields feeding the main trunk-line would shut-down in a like fashion too.
these fields provide the plants with natural gas at constant pressure, temperature, specific gravity, and dew point... ( water content )

why would the pipeline ever exceed its' operating pressure?

i worked in HUGE cryogenic gas plants as well as in field ops....
some of these plants are 30+ years old....they process the gas
through distillation into ngl's such as methane, ethane, propane, and
butane--iso and normal--......these products in turn act as feed-stocks
for plastics, pharmaceuticals....etc...etc...these plants shut-down
when you sneeze! ANY minute change to ANY of the thousands of valves
controlled by an independent regulator.....or one networked to the
main computer, can cause an entire plant shut-down which takes days to
resolve and re-start.....when the old imbedded chips fail, they will
have to be FOUND.....YES...FOUND amongst the thousands of others.......
guess what? some of the schematics do not exist!

if the plants shut-down.....the fields shut-down.......if the fields
shut-down.....the plants shut-down......

working for houston lighting & power involved maintaining electrical
power plants BACK-UP FUEL SYSTEM as mandated by federal law....
we operated a pipeline that provided fuel oil to 7 generating plants
in the houston area.....ALL of the controllers we utilized ARE antiquated....these power plants ARE older than lazarus long! they
have imbedded chips out the kazoo!! ENTIRE DEVICES WILL HAVE
TO BE REPLACED in order to make the systems work....not just one chip
here...and one chip there.....no quick fix......

one device fails--- and creates and exponential down-stream bobble that
will blast the tettering beast into fibrillation....

don't be afraid of the lawn-mower blade!

y2k.......bullsh!t or fact.........all it takes is one ( 1 ) failure....
and the entire system crashes....forget the power grid.....they must
first fire the boilers to generate the electricity.....yar.....
it will never get to the grid!

cherokee!;....seeing.quite.clearly....and.for.miles.and.miles.and.miles..

EB, my friend, this is Wednesday, not Friday. You're either two days
ahead of the rest of us or waaaaayyy behind! ( hmmm let's see, you
just got engaged to that beautiful girl..........hmmmmmmm...probably
the latter...?? )

280 should be broken to the downside, then a slow back and forth battle down to 250, I will add to my portfolio at 250. Who knows how low they are gonna push this thing.

Clinton is really a clown, he tells the farmer how sorry he is and what government programs he will enact to help the poor farmer.

I wonder how long its gonna take these dumb arses to realize that the Fed is the cause of their problems and are keeping prices depressed thru the use of derivative trading to keep inflation down--oh well the stock market must survive for the time being.

fin-who-shares@10:58.....

thank you sir..

your seat is always warm....the ssm awaits.

rising inverted head and shoulder being carved out.interesting

http://www.globetechnology.com/gam/Y2K/19990119/ROSFI.html

Banks and other federally regulated financial institutions have until the end of June to determine how prepared their borrowers and other lenders they deal with are for the potential year 2000 ( Y2K ) computer problem.

The toughest problem for banks, insurers and so on, may lie in determining how well inoculated their loan customers and "counterparties" -- other parties involved in, for instance, a derivatives transaction -- are against the millennium bug.

Borrowers and counterparties may fail because of lack of preparation, Mr. Le Pan said in his letter, and as a result, financial institutions face the risk of credit defaults.

***Know your customer***

-------
British select 'Ulysses' the novel for millennium
http://cnn.com/books/news/9901/19/ulysses/index.html

--
GOP Lawmakers Dispute Clinton on Y2K Delays in Social Security
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-01/17/231l-011799-idx.html

----
Vatican praying for bug-free millennium
http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19990120/financial/0916842853-0000004009.html

1 ) Yes the market could drop with interest rates trending lower. A big drop depends on your definition of big. At any time the Dow could head for the bottom of it's trading channel near 7700, this would be a drop of less than 20% and the market would still be in a bullish up trend with rates staying flat.

2 ) The E-waves give you a potential road map of how the market will travel within the current event driven environment. Sometimes that road is a super highway and other times it's a bunch of muddy back roads. If you read the map correctly the E waves can give you an idea in advance of when an event will occur but not tell you the event itself. Example, the ewave indicated a potential top in silver near 7.50 last year, the event that topped the move was the disclosure of Buffet's holdings just when the market hit 7.50. I was pretty sure the market was going to top near 7.50 but didn't know why. Now I think the reverse, a hike in interest rates will top the stock market long term but for the moment I don't when or from what price.

3 ) I think the effects on the US stock market from Y2K are way over blown. At worst it would put the market in a trading range between 9700-7700. The worst damage from YK2 will be over seas and those investors will put their money in the least effected area the US sending the mkt. higher. Personally I wouldn't touch the leaps; the premiums are so high the move would have to be emornous to make any money. But if you want to buy some puts wait for the mar snp to hit 1290 in the next couple days we should have some kind of pull back from there.
refer to: 1/18 20:34 & 22:30

Am honored to have a seat in the ssm. "lazarus long"??? I knew you were a Heinlein fan. Cherokee... you be the man!!!

Want to be a sovereign?
Got Gold?

All - Going generator shopping. Looks like I need 2-3kw size. Any suggestions? One thing that's important is weight and noise. I'd like to take it camping, too.

Year2000 - we all watch. Every clue, both positive and negative, about how this will shake out is important. I notice that ever so slowly, public officials change the story, now they are saying "stock a few days' worth, there will be some disruptions", where before they said it wasn't going to be a big deal. Conditioning the sheeple, gradually. I'm still expecting significant Y2K 'panic' in December 1999.

Gold, gold, so shiny and bright. . .
Looks like the price is getting more volatile.
Just like Rhodium . . . Bid 875, Ask 925

Sharefin - Thanks.

tyroknowingjustenoughtobedangerous

according to MSNBC on the web......

"Greenspan says economy 'sparkling'

But Fed chief warns high-flying stock market could be headed for a tumble

MSNBC NEWS SERVICES "

Wow, that sounds like a good reason for the DOW to go UP! Maybe Greenspan has lost his touch.

Cowgirl

Clipped form USAgold.....

"MARKET UPDATE ( 1/20/99 ) : Gold continued its sideways trek this
morning biding its time after a clarification from European Central Bank
president, Wim Duisenberg, that yesterday's report of a drop in
European gold holdings ( amounting to little over a ton ) was not a sale as
previously reported but an accounting adjustment. Bridge News reports
that Duisenberg "speaking to journalists here on the sidelines of a
reception...indicated that the 9 million euro drop in gold was not due to
any central banks sales of gold on the open market." Duisenberg's
comments were welcome news to gold advocates who see ECB as a
pro-gold institution with a firm hand on the rudder in terms of gold
policies. Such a sale would have been a blow to the hard won persona
crafted by the new central bank that it, not the national central banks,
was indeed the institution at the monetary helm in Europe....."

COMMENT: If the ECB were a "strong" monetary authority they would not be skulking around talking to journalists on the sidelines about backroom gold manipulations. "Gold is money and nothing else", therefore to be a strong monetary institution they need to be totally upfront about gold movements, they have to say the word "GOLD" out loud and upfront.
The ECB are just another paper mongering, usurous institution hiding behind the skirts of gold, hoping like hell they can keep the brainwashed unwashed and the braindead "media" in the dark. The ECB is gold weak and the Euro will be weak as a result.....SELL EURO....BUY GOLD.

the century. So what's up? Are all the local boys still asleep?

A $32 Trillion dollar composite government ownership in common stocks gives a whole new meaning to:

the federal budget deficit ( ha, what deficit? )
future taxation at all levels ( it seems we are being taxed for expenses that will be occuring into the next decade, because they sure don't need it today )
The plunge protection team. Hell, WE THE PEOPLE are the plunge protection team with that percentage of ownership. It is, after all, our tax money, wisely invested all these years.

Unfortunately "Wall Street Greed a la Bill Gates" is whats driving our society.
Financial Slavery has replaced what the Blacks had to indure in the US,
and now color has no bearing.
Profits before all else, humans can be replaced.
Im not saying capitalism is bad, but human greed has taken it to appocalyptic levels.
It will be very ugly once its all over.

The Euro has demonstrated what it is NOT, gold.

Wise people will not take nothing for something.

Oil will now bid for gold.

Sell euro, Sell dollars, Sell paper.

Buy Oil, Buy Gold.

I need warp power now!
Sorry Captain the dilithium crystals are really down to zero now.
We need to get out of orbit, impulse power now!
Sorry the impulse fuel cells are emtpy and the Mr. Fusion system is deader than Joe Dimaggio.
I want answers folks not problems. Spock stop crying over that illegal COMEX gold price datafeed and help out here.
Aye aye captain. It seems we need to replicate our propulsion methods using other means.
Fine, how do we do that?
We will need a heat source and a large quantity of water.
Thats it?
Yes sir.
Scan that moon over there for some water ensign!
Aye, aye captain. A large polar cap of water found sir!
Great , beam it into the cargo bay.
Now for that heat source. In ancient earth they used heavy metal isotopes which relinquished neutrons at a constantly declining rate to provide heat. Do we have any on board?
After a thorough search of the vessel only a plutonium powered hemispherically tipped cylinder was found in the bed-chamber of one of the female crew.
As you can see captain, by the sound of the slight humming noise and the angular oscillations this device is fully operational.
Splendid! Now whats next?
Well first we need a large mixing bowl from the galley and some garden hose. Ill cut a small hole in the middle of the mixing bowl and attach the hose. Next Ill extend the hose to the water filled cargo bay. Now Ill strap open this strange device to allow the heat from the isotope to heat the water in the garden hose just prior to where it exits the mixing bowl. Then well suspend the mixing bowl in the aft-pointing shuttle bay doors.
Great, now what?
Just turn this little valve here and viola.
Helm captain, we are showing positive movement at our desired course.
What is our ETA to starbase 9?
Captain, approxiamately 52,000 years.
Spock! You fool!
But captain, we are moving forward using this crude impulse engine built using an impulse method generally attributed to an earthling by the name of Sir Isaac Newton. The heat source caused the molecules to statistically exit the vehicle parrallel to our desired course thereby imparting an opposite motion towards our destination.
Fifty two thousand years? Dont we have any other methods?
If we could increase the amount of aft travelling molecules then we would gain in acceleration. What we need is a large source of hot gas. What I need now is some ancient audio transducer devices.
Great! Here are some ancient devices labelled Bose. Ill mount them in tandem to the mixing bowl and feed it this digitized feed from our computer archives.
America is working again. The promise of our future is limitless. But we cannot realize that promise if we allow the hum of our prosperity to lull us into complacency. How we fare as a nation far into the 21st century depends upon what we do as a nation today.
Captain! Helm reading warp 1, 2, 5, warp 8!
Good work Spock! How did ja do it man?
Well this audio feed is well known to contain the most concentrated hot air that could possibly exist in universe.
Outstanding!
...The best way to keep Social Security a rock-solid guarantee is not to make drastic cuts in benefits, not to raise payroll tax rates, not to drain resources from Social Security in the name of saving it. Instead, I propose that we make an historic decision to invest the surplus to save Social Security...
Warp 9 captain.

...so I could "prick" the bubble this "Placebo Bull Market" has created. You cannot imagine how much I would *personally* like to prick that "Fxqking" bubble!

: )

minerals in a colloidal suspension as well as minerals in pill form ( inorganic ) are not assimilated by the body to do it much good. As a matter of fact, it does the body harm as the unused minerals are deposited into the soft tissues and organs causing mineral toxicity and related disease. This is the reason for argyria ( the skin can turn grey when ingesting colloidal silver ) .

These products contain micron sized particles or larger.

For minerals to be assimilable ( bio-available ) and useful they have to be angstrom sized, and ionic/water soluable ( the form minerals have in vegetables and fruits, that is if the soil contained any minerals ) .

Gold happens to be superb for a number of conditions, including mental disorders. *smile*

But he reminded investors that gold, which soared to the $800 an ounce range in the hyperinflation of the late 1970s and which traded at $400 an ounce a few years ago, has been trading at $288 per ounce recently. Many people who dreamed of wealth from gold found instead they owned a wasting asset -- which paid no dividends and could be tough to store safely and sell.



"Gold has been a terrible investment because it has lost money relative to inflation," said Tedstrom.



Until we are able to transact our gold accounts electronically ( gold visa ) ( e -gold ) instead of hiding it under our matress etc. I believe gold will not have a future.



Have the Banks set up gold only accounts where currency can be drawn against the these accounts electronically with fractional charges ( not some 2-5% of transaction ) . Deposit gold the same way or deposit cash the same way. The banks could loan money against these assets earning interest income and paying a % to the customer. Even loaning the gold to foreign CB's and having the CB pay interest in local currency.

I believe a great redistribution of gold among all nations and central banks needs to take place to really stabilize the currency markets. This will create a bigger market for gold ( possibly silver ) making it possible for people to invest in local currency and not have their investments eroded by inflation or devaluation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990120/id_sunshin_1.html

Preliminary reports from Piriquitas look very good.

http://www.barney.co.za/reuters/jan99/gold20.htm

http://www.barney.co.za/reuters/jan99/gold20.htm

Gold made a little run, but was repelled by major resistence below 290.

Oh well, maybe tomorrow...

http://www.scdut.com/ password:idefix

of most appliances would have you running around all day plugging them in seperately. Surge wattage can double and even triple the size unit you need. Get an overhead valve engine unit with a large gas tank ( extended run they call them ) One good test to compare is just check the weight of different units, size for size. Honda is the best! Cost the most also.

A roll of Silver Eagles has attracted 17 bids and is going for $180 on Ebay today. Isn't that about $9 each? I love America.

I'm not sure about a roll, but a single coin can go for 9$US at an expensive shop, you can get them down in the 6.50$US range in quantity. For 180$US I can only assume people want a bunch.

Actually I thought there were 15 in each plastic container.

Latest merger. 3m and goodyear mmmgood

Speed
This in my mail this morning from Scambusters:

eBay Announces Five Initiatives to Deal with Fraud

There was a very interesting article on Friday ( January 15,
1999 ) in the "Wall Street Journal" called "How eBay Will Battle
Sham Bids, Mislabeling."

Susan Grant, an Internet fraud specialist at the National
Consumers League in Washington DC says her non-profit
organization gets 600 Internet fraud complaints a month. Since,
two thirds of these complaints involve online auctions, this is
an important topic for Internet ScamBusters.

According to Margaret Whitman, CEO of eBay, only 27 auctions per
million generate a fraud complaint to her company. Naturally,
eBay wants to drive that number down as low as possible.

Until now, the primary way of gauging a buyer or seller's
reliability on eBay has been the feedback from other members.
Members can submit evaluations about one another, which are
labeled as positive or negative. They are then tallied to
generate a score for each member. Ratings of plus 10 or better
are rewarded with a star. People who get scores of minus four or
worse are evicted from eBay.

According to the WSJ, the feedback system at eBay has at times
been strained. "Some users have pumped up their scores by
getting friends to submit positive feedback, even though they
haven't actually done business together on eBay." And some users
have not provided negative feedback because they've been afraid
that they'd get negatively evaluated in retaliation.

To improve its rating system, eBay is changing its score-keeping
formula so it only counts feedback related to actual
transactions. In addition, eBay is implementing these five
initiatives to reduce fraud:

1. Provide customers with free insurance against fraud or
mislabeling of goods, with a $25 deductible and $200 of
coverage.

2. Make it easier for customers to take advantage of independent
escrow services, especially for large transactions.

3. Allow users the option of having their identities verified by
an independent party, Equifax Inc.

4. Ban sellers from bidding in their own auctions.

5. Establish stronger sanctions against bidders who win an
auction and then don't pay for the item.

===============
27 frauds per million auctions? C'mon, someone pulling my leg.

A real Classic Head and Shoulders bottom in the Weekly XAU and the daily XAU. This is not going to take much longer. A nervous market in the Feb AU Gold for the last 6 days , less than a three dollar trading range. The break from here should be a decisive move either up or down. XAU say's the break will be to the upside. Nice XAU action today, went right down to a fibbonacci number and reversed up. I am resolute in my conviction, AU and the AU stocks are going to be much higher later in 1999.
CoBra

Like Gollum said, maybe tomorrow will be a good day for PM's. The
run UP did appear significant. Maybe there's a little caution coming
from those shorts. The Beige Book, along with Alan Greenspan's
comments today, paint a picture of continued labor tightness and
financial strains...Has deflation run its course all the way through
yet? If Gold takes off to the UP side, wouldn't this be signalling
inflationary fears by those who are now heavily "short" the PM'S?

Looks like the CRB is staying steady from yesterday. The Internet stocks must not be going up because I still haven't gotten filled on my PUT option bids. I still think ( hope ) the Internet folks come through for me, buy them guys! You know you still want them, at least push YHOO back up to 370$US.

Clintler is a virulent toothless whore who works for diseased pimps who hide in the shadows. Serving all that is foul and dishonorable in the world of Man

And from the lips of him, who serves those skulking in the shadows, vacuous diatribe spewed forth in front of a nation enamoured with a deranged stock market that has no soul. Their base lust for greed and avarice ignited even further by the empty promises, oozing from the lips of a toothless whore.

He who gutted a military for whom, in his own words he has the highest disdain. They for the most part cheered as he falsely appealed to their hypocritical sense of patriotism while he makes another self-serving promise to repair the damage done to our military for which he has had a strong and firm hand in weakening.

He displayed his specious character further with his gall and mendacious audacity to speak of the bravery of these fine men and women who serve and protect and addressing directly the widows of those who gave their lives in our Capitol. The entire audience being well aware of the confluence of his hiding, conniving and successful acts allowing him to malinger in England shirking his duty to his country.

Then the self-serving dirtbag turned his eye upon his next victim, the elderly. Uttering fatuous comments on poisoning even further a rotting and financially cancer ridden, failed government fund by investing it in a manner to make any decent man riled with disgust.

A hideous spectacle as he heaped praise on others, who have acted to protect, change or give the world something to look up to. Attaching himself like the diseased parasite he is to any host he can feed on to sustain his self-serving dementia.

The majority blinded by the light of these falsehoods bathe, deluded, in the heat of a fire created by a hollow now and an empty future. What they do not realize is that the light, which overwhelms them and the heat they feel represents the funeral pyre of their financial and social well being. And from the ashes as they come to their senses they will live in a world which can only be the stern, cold aftermath of false promises and a country that forgot the sanctity of humility.

The Volatility Index in the last 15 minutes has made a leap up, sombody out there is getting nervous.

Thanks! I know that the size is only good for 1 refrigerator ( or furnace blower ) at a time. Mostly what I want is something to take camping for use with my slide-in. Bonus is y2k insurance, just enough to keep the minimum. Since i live in the 'burbs, I will either 1/ have the unit stolen, 2/run out of fuel, or 3/get power back. Don't think a generator will last more than a couple of days, in any event. Too noisy, will draw too much attention.

Excellent post.

This is for information purposes only: I just recieved a truck of 5000 watt Briggs and Stratton commercial engines Retail $475 each.

Next week I will get a load of the same Generator with electric start low oil shutdown at $769 each.

Generators with Honda or diesel engines are becoming harder to get and are much higher. Forget about the giant warehouses and go to Your local hardware store { ACE] I hope ,and they will help in your selection.

I want to take a few moments this morning to discuss one key element behind our current prosperity--the rise in the value markets place on the capital assets of U.S. businesses. Lower inflation, greater competitiveness, and the flexibility and adaptability of our businesses have enabled them to take advantage of a rapid pace of technological change to make our capital stock more productive and profitable. I will argue that the process of recognizing this greater value has produced capital gains in equity markets that have lowered the cost of investment in new plant and equipment and spurred consumption. But, while asset values are very important to the economy and so must be carefully monitored and assessed by the Federal Reserve, they are not themselves a target of monetary policy. We need to react to changes in financial markets, as we did this fall, but our objective is the maximum sustainable growth of the U.S. economy, not particular levels of asset prices.

Commentary:The phrase hoisted by his own petard comes to mind. The Federal Reserve has levereged the wealth effect by making the economy too reliant on consumer spending and not wage increases or investment. By allowing our manufacturing base to have it's legs kicked out from underneath through globalization, but to maintain standard of living through cheap imports and low inflation, we have maximized all monetary and fiscal resources. Now there is no maneuver room. The fed has no choice but to protect the wealth effect in order to maximum "sustainable growth in the economy".

Indeed, some calculations support that perception. They suggest that the rate of return on capital facilities put in place during recent years has, in fact, moved up markedly. In part this may result from improved capital productivity--that is, the efficiency of the capital stock. In addition, we may be witnessing some payoffs from improved organizational and managerial efficiencies of U.S. businesses and from the greater education--in school and on the job--that U.S. workers have acquired to keep pace with the new technology. All these factors have been reflected in an acceleration of labor productivity growth.

Commentary: Exactly what Y2K inneficiencies will take away.

While discussions of consumer spending often continue to emphasize current income from labor and capital as the prime sources of funds, during the 1990s, capital gains, which reflect the valuation of expected future incomes, have taken on a more prominent role in driving our economy.

Commentary: Yeah like stock prices REALLY reflect future earnings potential! When the bow breaks, baby will fall....

We have some evidence from recent years that all or most of the decline in the saving rate is accounted for by the upper income quintile where the capital gains have disproportionately accrued, which suggests that the wealth effect has been real and significant.

Commentary: The distribution of income is shifting from the poor to the rich.

Thus, all else equal, a flattening of stock prices would likely slow the growth of spending, and a decline in equity values, especially a severe one, could lead to a considerable weakening of consumer demand.

Commentary: Uh oh, call in the Plunge Protection Team. It is in the national interest.

Despite brisk demand and improved productivity growth, corporate profits have sagged over recent quarters. This is attributable in part to some acceleration in labor compensation, but other factors have also been pressing, especially intensified competition and lower prices facing our exporters and those industries competing with imports. In these circumstances, businesses will feel under considerable pressure to preserve profit margins should labor costs accelerate further, or should the falling prices of commodity inputs, like oil, turn around. But, to date, businesses' evident pricing power has been scant. Either that would change and inflation could begin to mount or, if costs could not be recouped, capital outlays might well be cut back.

Commentary: Go gold! So what he is saying is that with the maximization of good fortune I described above, we have nowhere to go but severe inflation or deflation should market conditions change. I predict deflation.

The recent behavior of profits also underlines the unusual nature of the rebound in equity prices and the possibility that the recent performance of the equity markets will have difficulty in being sustained. The level of equity prices would appear to envision substantially greater growth of profits than has been experienced of late.

Commentary: Or else it is really just the 12% growth in money supply causing asset inflation. Thanks for dodging responsibility Easy Al.

In light of the importance of financial markets in the economy, and of the volatility and vulnerability in financial asset prices more generally, policymakers must continue to pay particular attention to these markets.

Commentary: Throw Social Security into the market.

The Federal Reserve's easing last fall responded to an abrupt stringency in financial markets and the effects that the consequent increased risk aversion was likely to have on economic activity going forward. We were particularly concerned about higher costs and disrupted financing in debt markets, where much of consumption and investment is funded. We were not attempting to prop up equity prices, nor did we plan to continue to ease rates until equity prices recovered, as some have erroneously inferred.

Commentary: So the market was discounting the new reality of debt default and Greenspan subsidized risk with rate cuts. The free market mechanisms which Greenspan spouts as making capitalism work is all lip service. The wealthy and the banks must be protected.

For productivity and standards of living to grow, not only must capital raised in markets be allocated efficiently, but internal cash flow, including the depreciation charges from the existing capital stock, must be continuously directed to their most profitable uses. It is this continuous churning, this so-called creative destruction, that has become so essential to the effective deployment of advanced technologies by this country over recent decades. In this regard, drift toward protectionist trade policies, which are always so difficult to reverse, is a much greater threat than is generally understood.

Commentary: Protectionism will hurt our own multinationals who go overseas to deprive other country's citizens of their workers rights in order to save money on wages. How can we slap tariffs on Chinese goods when Nike is over there manufacturing? It is Nike's effective deployment of assets overseas which would be hurt in a trade war. Then they would have to employ overpaid American CONSUMERS!

Protectionism was a threat to standards of living when capital asset values were low relative to income. It becomes particularly pernicious in a environment, such as today's, when that is no longer the case.

Translation: The rich with savings will be even more hurt than during the depression. Protectionism is good for those whose income is very important, like the poor and middle class. But we only deal in aggregate numbers so as long as the rich get richer faster than the poor get poorer, we look like we are improving the country's standard of living.

Steven

Looks as if the bottom dropped out of the DOW !!
After the huge rise to 9480+ today the DOW is now DOWN as we head for the close. Could this be the "major bull trap reversal" ?
AND Gold is looking good --- lots of activity at the close of the Feb
contract today. I am looking forward to tomorrow with Gollum !!!
GW

I was thinking about a Y2K generator but the fuel requirements dont seem to make sense in a Y2K environment in which you would need a generator.

Unless you plan to store massive amounts of fuel ahead of time, a generator running for eight hours will soak up 5-8 gallons of gasoline. If you plan on taking that five gallon container back and forth everyday to the gas station, what makes you think the gas stations will be able to keep gas in stock if the power companies cannot keep the grid from failing?

Steve

Silver's building a base and on longer term supply-demand factors OUGHT to be much higher.

Gold isn't expected lower than this in the face of worldwide currency volatility - weakness this week due to stories of very limited CB sales.

Both up today. Amazon.com off 16%

Dow down.

I think the worm has turned.

I feel in time I will come out of my shell...most assuredly so...

Principa non homines! ( principles, not men! ) Salud!

COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Jan. 20

-- TOTALS
Gold 808,401 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 75,475,382 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 99,819 + 67 short tons
*********************************************************************
Just a reminder, this Friday ( 22nd ) is LTD ( last trading day ) for
Feb Gold Options. Some volatility may be in store?

I am standing on the shoulders of giants looking backward and tugging on the cape of those looking forward............er........... ( whatever chopasacki says ) .............. ( ss's to my Tejs amigo... ) I DO mean THIS Friday..........like falling offa cliff........... ( KLUNK ) ............................. ( ugh ) . I'll try to be more vague next time ;- ) ....
cheers
away......back to grind
sellinggolF....er golD


APH is short too ( as well ) and they haven't stopped him out yet and he sees new lows AGAIN ( as well ) his 'work' has been saying it for quite some time.........as mine has ( as well ) ..............It may well be a VERY short bottoming proccess.....RJ has said MANY times here that there is a GREAT deal of FUND buying, etc. at the 270-280 levels...............so look for the WONDERFULL *V* bottom........unless, of course, you are looking at her bottom and ya miss the whole thing altogether.......... ( huh ) ?? You can bet JD has his finger on the trigger with ( drooy ) and a few other SA's and you can bet I will be there to jump on............I will be able to buy more TVX at below the Buck-fifty level........ ( ohmy ) ....

of course if it doesn't make new lows than we just have to watch it piddle-poop around this area for a while..............who said a pop to the 300 area soon?? I like it ( resistence at 302.50-308 areas ) ..............but then............piddle-poop time again........... ( ugh ) ........




ready?

A last minute rush to get into gold stocks and OUT of the Dow stocks at the close. The Volatility Index was acelerating upward at the close too. Tommorrow may be an interesting day. You may remember last Friday there were 8,500,000 oz. of shorts in the Feb AU COMEX Gold contract, YES, that was eight and one half million short oz. First notice day for the Feb AU is Jan 29th. Something is up.
CoBra

Anybody remember that term, If you traded Silver or Gold in the late 70's and early 80's this was a common occurrence. I don't think the PM markets are going to be forgiving when they start to move.
CoBra

Bought Feb PUTs against MSFT.

Feb Gold Options...

Wednesday January 20 9:49 AM ET

Arthur C. Clarke Warns Of Y2k Bug Chaos
By Rahul Sharma

COLOMBO ( Reuters ) - Science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke, at pains to point out that the new millennium does not start until 2001, says the so-called millennium bug could cause chaos in 2000.

``So many microchips all over the place that people have forgotten about have been quietly doing their job over the last decades, and suddenly ( in ) some obscure chip somewhere there will be a problem and it could be a serious problem,'' Clarke, author of ``2001: A Space Odyssey'', told Reuters Television on Tuesday.

``I think everybody would like to celebrate on 2000 and again on 2001, but may not be able to celebrate on 2000 because all sorts of services may be out.''

Clarke said there were already reports that some countries were braced for any calamity arising from computer chips, which run everything from household appliances to complex aviation systems, recognizing the year 2000 as 1900 and malfunctioning.

``This is another reason why it is best to wait until 2001 for the real celebrations,'' said Clarke, who this month issued a statement pointing out that the 21st century and the third millennium did not begin until January 1, 2001.

``They are not my views, I am just stating the fact. The Western calendar starts on January 1... there is no argument about it. If people don't see that it's their problem, not mine.''

Australian Prime Minister John Howard made the same point in 1997 -- only to be called the party pooper of the century in newspapers.

Clarke said Chicago had agreed to postpone its millennium celebrations to 2001 after taking his advice, but others were still reluctant.

Clarke said that 10 years ago he had described the 2000 bug in his book, ``The Ghost from the Grand Banks'', and added that while a few specialists woke up to the problem, it did not filter down to the general public until very recently.

``A tremendous effort is under way to solve this problem. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent... ( but ) we won't be sure until the day's past,'' Clarke said.

British-born Clarke, who has lived in the Sri Lankan capital for more than 30 years, is the author of scores of novels and science-fiction books and the creator of several documentaries.

In the last half century, many of Clarke's predictions have come true, including his 1945 outline of a network of geo-stationary communication satellites.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990120/tc/clarke_1.html

found it first on the Drudge Report...

maximus saludOs to YA!!! Meeeester T#1!!!

through the tips of your fingers, you have poured unto us a tonic truth......

and I shall welcome you soon to el ranchO de studio, prayerfully with the grindermOn of the lensed makings and da' aragOrnus III of the land O'hinter and we shall finally gaze upon the smoking mobile and laugh all'de'day'loooong standing on smashed beer can and gazing with dat' faraway jack.elamionius tribal eye.

g y p

MissingLink - Exactly! See my last post. OTOH, if we have a scenario with intermittent power supplies, a generator could be just what the doc ordered. Besides, I really do want one for camping!

Question: Is the Honda really worth the extra cost? How good are Coleman generators?

Tolerant1: Hamanski sure doesn't equivocate! Scary stuff!

Gold question: If the demand by the little people for coins continues into Y2k, how long will it be before it has an impact on spot gold,silver or stocks? How high has the premium gone?

When I was trading back in 1979 ( dec. ) I saw gold go limit up ( $25 ) for 4 days straight...between Christmas and New Years...it was amazing...$100 move in 4 days....I loved the action!!! At these prices, people were selling gold jewelry directly to the smelters...this also included silver...a lot of heirlooms of silver met the firery furnices!!!

I look forward to those moves still...but this time $100/day moves after the limits are moved up! So many people are calling for $150 gold now because of deflation...I find it interesting that financial predictions can change overnight by the stock market gurus'...all it takes is fear!

Got any fear laying around that we can borrow....maybe we should ask Latin America?...........

Eagles come from the mint in a 20 coin container. I have some and am watching silver spot seriously. But hey, at 9 bucks per eagle, it's a temptation now.

I have made a dozen purchases at Ebay and only returned one Morgan for being overgraded, but I got my money back so no foul. The feedback system does help police the action.

Agree completely, except for the deflation prediction. I predict inflation, for two reasons. First, when unemployment hits 15% or more, the US will be forced to stop importing cheap manufactured products from Asia. Second, the US government will start spending like crazy to prime the economic pumps. All of this will force investors into PM's.

The USA's "working classes" may come out of the Y2K crisis in better shape than before. There should be a strong demand for blue-collar skills ( like repairing cars and installing generators! ) . Power and manufacturing plants will need technicians to fix their systems. Security guards will be needed when the electricity goes out. Businesses that survive will need Admins to write checks and process paperwork that was formerly managed electronically...

APH - thanks for your insights.

Smithy

We are in a deflationary phase with commodity prices declining and profit margins for commodity producers being squeezed. The SPX is extremely over valued with a divident yield of 1.45%. Never in the history of markets has the SPX yield been so low. Can the SPX continue to rise ? Sure it can. Any thing is possible as long as you believe in the greater fool theory. The transportation index and the NYSE advance/decline line are refusing to confirm the Dow new high's. Gold sentiment is extremely bearish and Greenspan proclaims that the US economy is in an excellent shape. As deflation accelerates, US farmers will be out of business. Having grown on a farm I understand their problems and I feel for them. My life jacket is gold ,silver,treasury bills and cash to protect against the unknown and the chaos that lies ahead. Ultimately the US dollar will have to be backed by gold and silver and coins may be again in circulation. I believe that by the end of Feb gold will trade for about $320 and the XAU will be around 115. I could be wrong but the long term trend can't be worked off by any means. As someone said "The market will fool you first, and clobber you later". Remember , the public has better than 50% of ther assets in equities. If it was so easy to make money in equities, every person would have been wealthy, but it ain't reality.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/testimony/current/19990120.htm

No gold/silver standard...don't need it...AG will save the dollar/bond market/credit market...the stock market is expendable.

We watch this dollar market together. Yes!

Of course, he might be to late already...

Tom

Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.52. The 233 day moving average is 29.80

Thanks to everyone who posted. I was trying to catch up and found a great generator discussion on Monday afternoon Kitco.

Maybe it will be smarter to use a solar 12v battery charger, a couple of 12v batteries, a 300 w power converter, and put my FRN's into a wood stove.

BBML

XAU/Spot Ratio = .237. The 233 day moving average is .246

He said....

The Federal Reserve's easing last fall responded to an abrupt stringency in financial markets and the effects that the consequent increased risk aversion was likely to have on economic activity going forward. We were particularly concerned about higher costs and disrupted financing in debt markets, where much of consumption and investment is funded. We were not attempting to prop up equity prices, nor did we plan to continue to ease rates until equity prices recovered, as some have erroneously inferred.

-----------

What Greenscam Really Meant....

I am a hero in most Americans' eyes, if not the actual Messiah, Son of God. I plan to retire shortly and am adamant that American's continue to regard me as the living incarnation of Jesus Christ up until retirement day plus a few weeks ( when I will close escrow on that home I'm building in Tahiti ) . So, you can expect me to intervene in these markets regularly so long as I am in Fed Chair and my partner-in-crime, Robbing Rubin, remains at the helm of the Treasury.

Although there is little doubt that various companies such as Merrill, Chase, Lehman, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bear Stearns, etc. were facing severe losses from their LTCM derivatives exposure, I was determined then to make several speedy interest rates cuts, NOT from any inordinate desire to aid the failing equity prices of the reckless financial giants on Wall Street but rather the simple, sweet desire to SCREW those mental midgets stupid enough to short mainstream Wall Street stocks. Why else do you think I picked that last interest rate cut to fall the day before options expiration day? HARHARHARHAR! Did you see those pathetic, whining shorts run for cover? That'll teach anybody to believe in a level playing field in the financial markets of this country! Snort, snort, yuk, yuk!

Frankly, I also derived great joy in the manner in which I F*cked those foul goldbugs who dared to purchase precious metals in lieu of internet stocks and other assorted financial bubble offerings. They think that just because there is an aggregate 8000 ton short position in the gold market that this little fact will compel my hedge fund buddies to cover their butts someday! Ha, ha, ha! Not so long as I'm manipulating these markets, they won't!!

( fade out to raucous laughter )

Snort, snort, snort, swaaaaammmp.

-----------------------------

Thanks.

F*

I'm afraid that I must disagree with Kitcoite consensus on Social Security investment into equities. Finally Clinton has embraced an idea which makes sense.

1 ) This will require an accounting of funds, and investment of same, rather than just spending the incoming funds and pretending there's an SS surplus.

2 ) This is a U.S. retirement fund. Who among us would tolerate a pension, 401K, or retirement fund in the private sector which limited it's investment options strictly to U.S. Treasury's??

3 ) Historically, and no doubt in the future, equities will yield the most consistent high return....averaging above 11%, than any other investment.

Please spare me the usual tortured reasoning scenarios about how Gold hasn't actually lost 90% of it's inflation adjusted value over the past 2 decades while stocks rose 1000%... I don't buy into false premise reasoning. By any and all measures...the LONG haul investor is beter off in stocks.

"Central Bank of Vulcan Sells Remaining Gold"

STARFLEET HEADQUARTERS ( Reuters )
The Vulcan Central Bank taday announvced that it had sold its remaining gold reserves.

"We felt that our assetts would be better invested in interest bearing securites" said Bank Governor Uhura.

Today's sales announcement follows on the heals of last May's when the VCB sold one third of its reserves.

"The remaining two thirds have been sold, but we will still observe the gold markets for future weakness and buying opportunities" Governor Uhura confirmed today.

The sale is a big blow to intergalactic gold holders, as the VCB was one of the central banks who had previously shown faith in the yellow metal.

Dealers aren't expecting the sale to adversly effect the price however one dealer was quoted saying "this is a relection of the gold market today. Even previously strong supporters are wavering in support for the once noble metal.".

January 20, 1999 - Spot Gold $287 up 60 cents - Spot Silver $5.155 up 3 cents

"SCANDALE GOLD"

We are pleased to say that we have raised to the level of awareness about the "Goon Squad" and their activities. Queries have come back to us from everywhere:
"Could Goldman Sachs ( Secretary of the Treasury, Rubin's, former firm ) really be a part of a cabal that has been holding down the gold price?"

We will continue to sound off that we believe that this has been just such the case. We will do so as we try to "turn up the heat" on the interlopers that have created havoc for those in the gold industry. We also believe this "Goon Squad", and their cronies that has been led by Goldman Sachs, have muscled all their forces to knock the price of gold down one more time, so that they, and their fellow bullion dealer shorts, can begin to cover their massive gold short positions from strength, and not cover because they are forced to buy in a panic.

When Le Metropole opened its Caf doors last Labor Day Weekend, the price of gold was below $280 and the price of silver was $4.83. We were very bullish at the time and were calling for bull market moves. Midas commentary recruited David Niven, Anthony Quinn, Gregory Peck and James Darren to take out powerful central bank and producer selling resistance at $290. They did so and we thought the 19 year old bull market finally had began. But, every time gold poked its head above $300- WHACK. The trading patterns of both gold and silver started to look extraordinarily peculiar, unlike anything I have seen in my 25 years of watching commodity markets.

When Le Metropole opened, Midas du Metropole was a supply/demand man and was very bullish on his forecasts for the prices of gold and silver because the fundamentals looked so attractive.

The visible silver stocks continued to dwindle, the silver premiums in India were very strong as were the premiums of silver products ( silver coin bags ) . All of this was visible evidence that silver inventories were tight.

The gold mine supply for 1998 was 2529 tonnes according to GFMS, a leading trade organization. Demand for gold for 1998 is expected to be around 4159 tonnes. That means that there is a 1600 tonne natural deficit ( demand over mine supply ) that has to be filled by gold from scrap supply, the central bank coffers, forward hedge sales from producers, or leased gold. Gold can be leased and sold into the market place ( adding supply ) due to its cheap borrowing costs ( say .75% to 1.8% ) The resulting cash from the sale of the gold is then used for a variety of investment purposes. This is similar to what was done with loans borrowed in yen.

The yen carry trade was a big winner for years. It was fostered by incredibly low interest rates in Japan. Money was borrowed in yen and then invested in, say, US Treasury instruments. Our Treasury loved it as it supported our debt instruments, keeping interest rates lower than they would have otherwise been. It also has fostered the credit bubble that is fueling the stock market bubble. As long as the yen remained flat against the dollar, or did not gain against the dollar, this trade was a windfall winner for banking proprietary trading operations and the hedge funds. When the yen rose from 146 to 111 in the late summer, the yen carry trade soured for many of the Johnny Come Lately borrowers. Now, they had to face principal losses that skyrocketing their realized borrowing costs to 20% and more. AND, some of their risk free arbitrage trades also went amuck, compounding the situation. Voila-Long Term Capital Management.

The big boys scored early and big with the yen carry trade. If it could be done with yen, why not gold? The gold loans were similar to the yen loans in borrowing costs. As long as the price of gold did not take off ( so that the principal did not have to be paid back as a result of a much higher gold price and thus making the loan an expensive one ) , it was a winner.

In the old days, gold was only lent out to fabricators and producers by bullion dealers. That was before the golden age of gogo central bankers. Before the days
when they ( The Central Bank of Italy, for example ) began to invest in the likes of Long Term Capital Management. But, when the word leaked out ( the Wall Street "in crowd" always gets the "leaks" ) in the winter of 1996 that the central banks were going to be dumping some of their gold holdings, the bullion dealers and hedge fund jumped into bed together. The bullion dealers made money by encouraging the producers to hedge and by lending out their bullion to willing borrowers. One fed on the other, the gold supply hitting the market ballooned, the gold price collapsed. Not only did the borrowers have money at a very low borrowing cost, they had a bonanza windfall profit because they could pay back their loans with much cheaper gold.

All has been well for those playing this game. Until NOW. The price of gold has been trading around the low $290 area for about a year and one half now. Deflationary forces have taken hold and the bears have fostered the notion that there is no reason to own gold. "Look how lousy it acts and look at its lowly price" has been the commentary dished out to the press. Behind the scenes, however, there is entirely different wordspeak going on.

Remember that deficit. It is some 1600 tonnes. That means to keep the price of gold down here, the scrap people, central banks, gold borrowers and producers have to feed 1600 hundred tonnes of gold into the market place. But, times are a changing. Many producers are not so comfortable selling gold forward at these low prices ( gold supply thus reduced ) .

The pre EMU central bank selling is over for the most part. Dow Jones - Frankfurt - Jan. 7 -ECB Vice President Christian Noyer - " the national central banks ( ESCB ) will keep their gold holdings for the foreseeable future". The ECB has also made well reported statements that is has no plans to sell any of its 15% foreign exchange gold reserves in the formative stages of the creation of the euro.

That leaves the gold borrowing crowd and gold scrap people to feed the junkie bear habit and supply heavy tonnage of gold to the market place. The gold market has little transparency. No one really knows what is what. It is very, very hard to find out what the facts are in the gold market, especially about the gold loans. The best work on this subject was done by Frank Veneroso of Veneroso Associates. As a result of yoeman, Sherlock Holmes like. detective work, he has come to the conclusion that the gold loans have risen to 8,000 tonnes, or so. This is a big deal as gold mine supply in 1998 was only 2529 tonnes. If the shorts had, or wanted to cover, in a short period of time ( like they tried to do in the yen carry trade ) there is not a chance in China that they could do so. What is worse, many of the borrowers may have, or had, no idea, until recently, how large the gold loans have grown

The jig is up time, is here. Enter Long Term Capital Management. When this Nobel Prize winning led hedge fund blew up last fall, it was discovered that they had a big short gold position of say 300 tonnes that had been sold into the market place. Again, the proceeds were used to finance their "so called" riskless arbitrage trading positions. When the Fed and fellow financial institution big shots came in to bail them out to prevent a "systemic" financial crisis, they found out about their short gold position. What to do? A buyback of 300 tonnes, or so, in a short period of time would cause a sharp up spike in the gold price that already was moving up as a result of the serious collapse of this hedge fund. Thus, they arranged an "off market" transaction with someone, or someones, to let them out of the trade."

From here on in, the gold game changed a bit. The gold genie was let out of the bottle. As a result of this hedge fund fiasco, financial institutions everywhere began to scrutinize their investment practices and risk taking policies. What was good for the goose was not good for the gander anymore. John Corzine, CEO of Goldman Sachs has been canned, for example. A brand new day is evolving. We know from our banking sources that "risk management reviews" are the name of the game today. That is one reason why the credit spreads have not narrowed like the fed hoped they would when they cut US interest rates 3 times in a panics late last year. Risk lending is being curtailed. There is a coming liquidity crisis coming. That will call for even greater reduction in risk taking financial activities.

Back to the ranch. What is to be done about the gold loans? The Fed and the big shot financial boys in New York had to learn about the size and potential problem of the gold loans when they discussed it with each other during their scheme to bail out Long Term. I am absolutely convinced they found out how large the gold loans were, JUST in that group alone. Good grief, they must have collectively thought. They had to come to a conclusion to try and develop and exit game plan.

Maybe the plan ( not conspiracy ) went something like this:

1. Foster the notion that gold is a dead duck for the time being. Make sure that your highly respected analyst reports project dismal future gold prices. This will encourage producers to sell rallies and help to continue to attract gold borrowers for leased gold.

Whether planned or not, the gold price projections for 1999 by this "in crowd" are very uninspiring. We know for a fact that one of these heavyweight institutions TOLD their respected analyst to come up with a bearish projection.

2. Make sure that gold is available for forward hedging purposes to the producer community.

Whether planned or not, Goldman Sachs was running around last fall offering credit terms to producers ( South African in particular ) at previously unheard of credit terms. Practically, no credit restrictions at times, at all. Just do it.

3. Defend the $300 price area at all costs for the time being. Every time, gold breaks through $300, kill it. Defend your positions and discourage gold buying as it approached $300 in the future and encourage producer hedging right below $300. We will make sure the gold is available for any of you that need it to do so. Nice to have a little help from your friends. House Banking Committee, July 24, 1999 - Alan Greenspan - "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise".

Now, why did Alan Greenspan utter this in the first place? Gold traded at $385 for years and that did not bother anybody. What is he trying to protect? Why mention mobilizing gold reserves when gold is trading below $300?

Whether it was planned or not, the price of gold has been bombed every time it has reached, or tried to reach, the $300 area the past 6 months.

While Midas du Metropole is shouting this from the mountain tops: " if it looks like a duck, acts like a duck, trades like a duck, it is probably a duck", we are not the
only ones who are aware about the time bomb, explosive nature of the gold loan situation.

Bloomberg -Nov 26 - Sydney - " Normandy Mining Ltd. said it will realize 85 percent of the value of its forward gold sales booked over the next 10 years, giving it a profit of A$650 million. The Australian miner, one of the world's 10 largest gold miners, said it bought back 4.1 million ounces of its previously contracted gold sales, and says it replaced the sales with options. Reuters- Nov. 25 ( US time ) - Sydney - " The transaction will simultaneously eliminate potential bank counter party risk," Normandy said in a statement.

Why did Normandy even bring up "counter party risk"? What do they know?

The two most vociferous, and right on, pontificates of the bear case the past few years were Merrill Lynch and Union Bank of Switzerland. They encouraged their clients to go short and encouraged gold borrowing. They, more than anyone else, would have a very good idea of how large the gold loans have become. Whether planned or not, both have withdrawn from the gold derivative business. They were so right on the gold market. Why did they exit the gold derivative business? They were the bears' heroes!

Whether planned or not, 12 major banks chaired by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in early January formed a "Counterparty Risk Management Group" "with the intent of enhancing best practices in credit and market risk management. The policy group will develop standards for strengthened risk management practices". We realize this group was not just formed because of the gold issue, but why the need for it to be formed now? Is this not a "cabal planner" of sorts. Looks like a duck to me.

That there is a "cabal" to hold down the price of gold for a period of time really should be no surprise. They are all in cahoots together anyway- the Fed, the "plugged in" investment firms and the banks.

Bloomberg News - NEW YORK - Jan.18 - Partners at Long-Term Capital Management LP, the hedge fund that was taken over by 14 banks after losing more than $4 billion, are meeting with lenders, investors and regulators to explain their losses and pave the way for raising new money, people familiar with the fund said over the weekend..........The partners, led by John Meriwether, a former vice chairman of Salomon Inc., have spoken to about 20 institutions in Europe and the United States and will hold similar meetings in Asia........The 14 banks, including Goldman Sachs Group LP and Merrill Lynch & Co., bought 90 percent of Long-Term Capital for $3.6 billion in September with the agreement they would keep their money in the fund for no more than three years........ The firm was taken
over a little more than a month after Russia's default and devaluation in August, which caused many investors to abandon all but the safest securities and made many
of Long-Term Capital's market positions unsustainable. The fund, whose net assets have climbed about 14 percent since the banks took over Sept. 28, is now run by an oversight committee of six of the banks.

Why did Terry Smeeton, a top official at Bank of England who recently retired, completely clam up about the size of the gold loans when confronted? Why did a top executive of one of these 14 banks turn red when confronted about the same issue last weekend?

We, in the gold industry, only ask for a fair shake. We ask for full disclosure, ransparency of operations and some truthful answers about what is going on. So did CFTC Chairwoman Brooksley Born, who sent a letter of resignation yesterday to President clinton, because her efforts were thwarted in this area too.

PARTIAL REMARKS OF

BROOKSLEY BORN, CHAIRPERSON

COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION

UNKNOWN RISKS IN THE OTC DERIVATIVES MARKET"

SILVER USERS ASSOCIATION

WASHINGTON, D.C.

October 28, 1998

I am pleased to be asked to speak today to members of the Silver Users Association. Having represented a client in the cases and investigations relating to the 1980
manipulation of the world silver market by the Hunt brothers and others, I continue to have a special interest in the silver market.

Today, I would like to discuss recent events in the over-the-counter ( "OTC" ) derivatives markets and to share some thoughts about the appropriate role of
regulation in responding to them. The events surrounding the financial difficulties of Long-Term Capital Management L.P. ( "LTCM" ) raise a number of important
issues relating to hedge funds and to the increasing use of OTC derivatives by those funds and other institutions in the world financial markets.

LTCM is a hedge fund that was able to borrow billions of dollars based on the reputation of its principals and its profitable trading. It entered into enormous
positions in exchange-traded and OTC derivatives. When prices moved against it, it was on the verge of defaulting on its commitments. The Federal Reserve Bank
of New York encouraged its major creditors and counterparties -- many of the largest U.S. and European banks and investment banks -- to infuse $3.6 billion into
LTCM to prevent its collapse and the possible disruption of the global economy.

Most of the regulatory issues posed by the LTCM episode were raised by the Commission in its Concept Release on OTC Derivatives in May 1998, which initiated
the Commission's current study of the OTC derivatives market. The issues include lack of transparency, excessive leverage, insufficient prudential controls, and the
need for coordination and cooperation among international regulators.

1. Lack of Transparency

While the CFTC and the U.S. futures exchanges had full and accurate information about LTCM's exchange-traded futures positions through the CFTC's required
large position reports, no federal regulator received reports from LTCM on its OTC derivatives positions. Notably, no reporting requirements are imposed on most
OTC derivatives market participants. This lack of basic information about the positions held by OTC derivatives users and about the nature and extent of their
exposures potentially allows OTC derivatives market participants to take positions that may threaten our regulated markets or, indeed, our economy without the
knowledge of any federal regulatory authority.

Furthermore, there are no requirements that a hedge fund like LTCM provide disclosure documents to its counterparties or investors concerning its positions,
exposures, or investment strategies. It appears that even LTCM's major creditors did not have a complete picture. A hedge fund's derivatives transactions have
traditionally been treated as off-balance sheet transactions. Therefore, even though some hedge funds like LTCM are registered with the Commission as commodity
pool operators and are required to file annual financial reports with the Commission, those reports do not fully reveal their OTC derivatives positions.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT HAVE BEEN THE MOST PROMINENT CRITICS OF HER REVIEW OF
DERIVATIVES.

Did she resign because she was tired of talking to ducks that do not want their activities exposed? What kind of activities do they not want exposed? Is there a
smoking gun here?

Yes, " Something IS Rotten in the State of Denmark" and in Washington. The people in the gold industry are paying the price for the errant ways of the financial
community and what they have wrought. These ducks in Washington talk out of two sides of their mouths. They talk integrity, and practice hypocrisy and
skullduggery .

The " Goon squad" and fellow ducks had better start their buy backs soon though or they will be caught up in a "Scandale Gold" of epic proportions down the road.
The Asian official sector has been a big buyer of gold for reserve purposes to back a coming regional financial institution. Gold demand in India is soaring and the
very high premiums in Asia indicate public demand is roaring back in that part of the world. Gold and silver coin sales are rocketing because of the coming Y2K
concerns, etc. And, it is only a matter of time before one, or more, of the gold shorts break ranks for self preservation purposes.

It is also only a matter of a little time before the 19 year precious metal market ends and a substantial 5 year bull market begins. In Midas' opinion, the price of gold
will reach $405 by the end of the year and the price of silver will reach $9.78. Do not wait too long Cabal, to execute the rest of your plan; the exiting of your gold
short positions. Do not wait too long or you will pay dearly!

That is how Midas sees it. We only seek the truth and open www.lemetropolecafe.com to commentary from all quarters that possess insight on this matter. If our
observations are not correct, we want to know why they are not. In the same vane, if you agree with Midas, send this commentary to everyone you can think of in
the gold industry and to the press too. It is time to turn up the heat on the greedy gold shorts.

From: ( http://www.lemetropolecafe.com )

LGB,
I agree with you that stocks have been the place to be for the past 20 years. Gold has been about the worst place to be. I also agree that, following a correction in the stock market, unless that gets out of hand, stocks will continue to be the place to be.

I own some gold not because I expect to make money from it, but I keep it for a rainy day in the financial markets -- a very rainy day -- that may or may not ever happen. The current world financial system is based on contracts and confidence. It is a robust and exiting world, full of new innovation and opportunity and openness. I like it. It's a lot better than the pessimistic world of the 1970s I grew up in. But as we learned this past summer from Russia, parties of financial contracts will sometimes break them. Confidence drops, and capital disengages from the markets quickly. If the actions of governments and central banks are not as succesful next time as then, optimism can turn to sustained pessimism. At those times stocks are not the best investment. If the world financial system becomes chaotic, I will need my gold to live at a much reduced level than I enjoy today. Certainly this is not something I wish for. One does not wish for a rainy day.

What worries me about this particular period of expansion is its excesses, especially excess corporate and personal debt. The current rates of new debt creation assume that assets will continue to increase in value at the current rate. The fact is that they will not. The question is, how quickly will assets decellerate or reverse. As any business owner can tell you, a very fast-growing company that's financing expansion via debt can implode and go bankrupt if there's an unexpectedly rapid and excessive interruption in cash flow. While it appears that the Fed can guarantee the availability of fresh "cash" in the economy, this must be issued as debt through the banking system. And it's the banking system that's the most vulnerable to corporate debt.

So while I agree that stocks are the place to be, I'd argue that now is not the time to be in them. They are simply too expensive by any measure. Of course Greenspan said that years ago, and anyone who listened has missed out on a big run-up in the markets. He underestimated the impact of blind investment by millions of Americans in mutual funds and 401K plans, and how far optimism will take a market. How many folks get out with their profits is another matter.

The other issue is whether the government ought to be investing its citizens' money in the stock markets. Greenspan says no for philisophical reasons that I agree with: a market in which a major player is the government is not a free market. Once in the market, the government will have as hard a time drawing the line between investment and manipulation as have the HK, Brazilian, and Japanese governments. The temptation to preserve the investment when the market drops will be too much for any politician to resist. Anyway, as in HK, Japan, and Brazil, the market wins out in the end, and the government only loses its citizen's money.

Savage,
Thanks for the email. Great to hear from you. I've been busy as hell with my latest gig. I drop you an email about it. It's keeping me busy.

All,
Sorry about the few hit and run posts the last few months. Been travelling for a while. Hope everyone is well.

I-love-my-gold-and-hope-it's-never-worth-much

-EJ

He sorts out that buffoonery about Social Security and also explains that market earnings estimate shenanigan's, good read!
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

Your approval of the use of SS funds to buy equities has a few holes in it. The biggest is that the gommint spends all of the money now. Where are they going to get the money to put into equities? Issue treasury paper? Drive up rates for everyone else? Tank the markets with the resultant higher interest rates?

Archaeologist Finds Treasure Chest

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpnt14.htm

Clinton is putting in a larger funnel for the peoples money to flow to the financial-politico corrupt. The sad part here is that a mandatory contribution to these hooligans is now blatantly obvious, and the sheeple will let bastards rape them with out even a whimper. The siphoning of peoples' hard earned wealth was accomplished previously between the FED interventions in the equity markets, and holding the americans hostage with debt and excess government spending. While t the same time the political special interest groups prop up politicians who sponsor the appropriate legislation, and the politician/lawyer/insurance mafia demand conformance and tribute. Now with the addition of the SS pumping money directly out of peoples pockets and directing it to investments that are not of individuals choosing; the rip off has escalted to new and even greedier territory. I am sorry LGB, when the government directs my money in support of companies whose agends and exploitations are not of my choosing THAT is WHERE THE LINE MUST BE DRAWN. This is like depriving me of the only real vote I have left: the allocation of my capital in the capital market. This authoritarian investment is likely to grow into both a corrupt sponsorship of those companies and special interests of special interest to the politicials, and pure socialism. This method of investment is not consistent with the notion of democratic capitalism. All this, with the inefficiencies, and ineptitude of any publicly adminstered "investment" is only likely to line the pockets of the financial elite at the expense of the people. No, I will not argue with you on the value of the stock market, only with the real motives and the potential for more efficient corruption, and deprivation of personal investment freedom.

They would be better ( morally and efficiency wise ) off legislating a tax cut with a mandatory investment account ( with a tax deferrment incentive and % of income limit ) which is self directed with the default investment being T-bills.

Write your congressman, senator, and the president and protest this blatant usurpance of freedom.

units or did the ones for the higher price have a better motor and an
electric start? I see many of the 5000w economy units all over the place, the Honda's I understand are getting much harder to come by.

Check out the US Mint Web page

http:/www.usmint.gov

Last years coins sales have been revised upwards to 1.8395moz and note that January todate is already 15% above the whole of January last year.

Thanks for the ride.
I'll be up there with you riding the ether.....

------
Tyro
Check out some of the info on this page.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alt2.htm

Also I just found this site:
http://www.nbmc.com/

Worthy of a good browse.

----
MoReGoLd
If it all turns upside down it'll be very ugly.
Esp in the most populated areas where the masses have come to rely on being feed their daily dogma.
The angst of losing what one has come to expect will be most painful.

----
My 10:58 post makes me want to put down a few extra bags of rice.
Many will not look forward to preparing for their own survival.

In some ways a few extra supplies from those in the know could well go a long way.

I see so much talk coming out about the need for communities to become more community minded come Y2k.
The additional support we may need will have to come from within.

------
Boston Fed's Minehan dismisses Y2K fears
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/020/business/Boston_Fed_s_Minehan_dismisses_Y2K_fears+.shtml

Get over it.

Just heard AT&T is being classified as an "Internet" stock, should go to $500 per share real quick. Yeah right, like I just sold half of my Gold and Gold Stocks to buy into AT&T.

Over the long run yes the example fits.

But what if Y2k was a shocker or the financial markets crashed?
They have before and will again.
After all it's just a confidence game.

Now how would the masses fell if the Gov't put the SS money in and the markets tanked by 50%? This would be bad.

Perhaps they might get the timing right and put the money in after the crash?
Then this would be good.

But if they use the funds as a last resort to prop up the markets then this would be pure folly.

Wise made plans need lots of foresight.

And one aspect is very clear.
Your leader is prepared to stand up in front of his nation and keep his face straight as he lies.
We can argue the legal aspects of this but they don't change the facts.

I would be very dubious about following one like this.

Actions speak clearer than words and here we have the proof.
This man and his follies has to be removed.

I don't like to talk politics but this man speaks with a forked tongue and is not to be believed.

To gamble the future of our children for the sake of political success is despicable, but then many things he does, reek of this.

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/TFC/Mavens-IndustryOutlook.html?G=MarketMavensReport&T=Industry%20Outlook&A=Mavens-IndustryOutlook

get around them, baby.

Once again we see Kitco degenerating into a Bible studies group.

Live Long and Prosper.

Live Long and Prosper.

@PMF Thanks for putting up that post from Murphy. That was a great read!

short gold, compromise and prosper.

Your human side is showing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990120/bq3.html

My dear Mr Spock, may I suggest a Vulcan mind meld with a teddy bear.

Stu-Stu-Studio, don't go funnin everyone like that, we are all sour pusses and don't like no funnin.

Rack , the more expensive one has electric start and low oil shutdown,same engine. I am lucky in that I have a supply of natural gas and my own water well, and installed a 12 volt lighting system some years back. I plan on running my generator 8 hours once a week to refill about 5000 gal. of water storage capacity, and to recharge the batteries to my 12 volt system. Full time operation of a generator is only feasible if you have a fuel source such as natural gas. Let y2k come on, a country boy can survive!!!

I sense the Spockmon dropped some dough on the ol' gold standard, hence the bitterness. Me? Oh I'm down a quarter mil and athinkin' it's kinda' wild, baby....Hey! leetle miss dealer....hit me one more time! let's rumble....$9 oil, $250 gold......let's just see who's still here standin' in da' mornin'!

G&P to YA!!!

I commend you sir and have no doubt that you are right on. I for one would love to be a party to a lawsuit against these buggers.

Come on Kitco, send this to everyone including your congressman, lets serve notice that were mad as hell, and we ain't gonna take it no more.

( ap ) lEADVILLE'S LAST OPERATING MINE WILL CLOSE DOWN AT THE END OF THE MONTH, ENDING THE TOWN'S 140 YEAR-HISTORY OF HAULING LEAD, ZINC,GOLD AND SILVER OUT OF THE GROUND HIGH IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES. Gold is dead? Silver is dead? I still think Feb will be the low for the year. One of the Fed Gov's said today that the chance of deflation is zero for this year.

When did Greenspan take office and when is he done? I thought I remembered reading that he took office right before the '87 crash but I'm not sure. When does he finish? I was thinking about the ironies in life and that Greenspan might have come in with a crash as well as go out with a crash

STUDIO.R, You would be elected by a landslide, as the Ambassador of Kitco. You always bring a great energy with you whenever you appear on Kitco. Your gold portfolio is down quite a bit ( unless you are a billionaire ) and yet you bring no bitterness here, only positive energy.
One day our little RangitO will shine!! A puff and a gulp to YOU!!!

LGB: I will add something to the Social Security discussion. There is an easy solution to the problem -- 'can' social security, and replace it with a 403B or 401k or IRA type account. Let people manage their accounts, as long as they are gainfully employed. Most do anyway. And, if the government thinks we are dumb enough to squander our moneyu in the Stock Markets, why do they think is is better for them to squander it for us?

If the individual is not gainfully employed, the social security savings to date is put into a Federal Savings bond/Treasury bill, dollar for dollar. Every contribution accounted for.

Why won't this happen? Simple! How else can the US government raid the Social Security piggy bank like they did this year so that they could claim a surplus? And -- as I recall the National Debt went up 200 billion anyway ( despite the surplus ) . I shudder to think how much my Social Security contributions would be worth now if they were earning, say 5% annually. I just assume the worst, that I will never see my social security, and prepare accordingly.

You can forget WJC's proposal. He will wait for the Republicans to organize some sort of draft proposal, and then he will torpedo it. No one is serious about pulling the thoroughly addicted US government off the teat of Social Security.

Some here have suggested a bull market in gold will not get underway until the bond market starts trending down.
10/5/98 may have been a major long term bond market top. Prices have moved sideways to down since that date. The Dow Jones Utility Average lately has been showing signs of weakness, reinforcing the view that long term interest rates may have seen major lows.
One ( I'm willing! ) can argue that many stock indicies topped out a week or so ago. If so, would be extra reinforcement for a forthcoming gold bull move. In my view there is only one major, desireable technical condition so far absent the gold market --- a final frenzied climatic washout down move. Market action similar to the frenzied bond top on 10/5/98. On that day I recall clearly one of CNBC's commentators gushing irrationally "there were absolutely NO sellers of bonds out there"!

http://www.mvision.com/com/story.asp?front=true&story=1624&fixed=no
US BUDGET: Greenspan says more fiscal stimulus not needed

But he reminded investors that gold, which soared to the $800 an ounce range in the hyperinflation of the late 1970s and which traded at $400 an ounce a few years ago, has been trading at $288 per ounce recently. Many people who dreamed of wealth from gold found instead they owned a wasting asset, which paid no dividends and could be tough to store safely and sell.



"Gold has been a terrible investment because it has lost money relative to inflation," said Tedstrom.



Until we are able to transact our gold accounts electronically ( gold visa ) ( e -gold ) instead of hiding it under our mattress etc. I believe gold will not have a future.



Bring GOLD into the 21st century by having the Banks set up gold only accounts where currency can be drawn against these accounts electronically with fractional charges ( not some 2-5% of transaction ) . Deposit gold the same way or deposit cash the same way. The banks could loan money against these gold assets earning interest income and paying a % to the customer. Even loaning the gold to foreign CB's and having the CB pay interest in local currency.

I believe a great redistribution of gold among all nations and central banks needs to take place to really stabilize the currency markets. This will create a bigger market for gold ( possibly silver ) making it possible for people to invest in local currency and not have their investments eroded by inflation or devaluation.

All: I need a little help. 1981 Chevy Blazer 4WD just died -- costs $1000 US to repair with one year warrantee on transmission. All of the new US SUVs with size and tow/4WD capability cost approximately $30,000 US. Even the 4WD pickups cost about 30k. Despite my annoyance at fixing the Blazer yet one more time, $30,000 covers alot of repairs.

So -- the question is this -- do I gain by treading water 1-2 years, and repairing the Blazer? I do know it is y2k compliant -- all the electronic stuff has been disabled over the years. And -- during a y2k crisis, what would be easier to repair than a Chevy 305 V8 with 350 transmission?

I think prices and interest rates will go down -- she thinks the opposite.

I am asking a question we all have been talking about with serial devaluations all over the world, with some countries going through rising prices, and some going through dropping prices -- most with dropping standards of living.

So -- what do I do? Buy the new reliable vehicle now on a mountain of debt, or maintain the cheap, but somewhat unreliable 'antique'?

http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/body/0,1031,9483-16305-116232-0,00.html


Something starting to show...^o-o^

I've been convinced for some time that a financial crash is inevitable. Thought it was going to happen a lot sooner. My only question is, will something trigger it before y2k does? Still accumulating the G's ( Gold, gulps, grog... etc ) . New Topic-- I down about 8 diet cokes a day. Had a high school volunteer at work tell me how dangerous aspartime ( nutraSweet ) is. Even referenced a scientific article from Vibrant Health magazine! Supposed to cause one's mental functions to decline. Well, I informed that volunteer that I am burying Gold in my back yard, and am taking cash out of the bank and hiding it. Heh heh, you should have seen the look I got! Ahh aspartime, it does a body good!

Gee, weren't you buying on the last spike down, where XAU sat for a couple-O-days below 50?
Even now, the XAU doggies, and the other mongrels, except RANGYdog, have done better than SnP.
BTW, I got James Dines new year issue today. His calls on the internets have been nothing short of spectacular. He finally explained it to me so that I have a new respect for what some of the internet companies presage in enormous shifts of commerce.
His look to the future of internet commerce, and the technology, doesn't sit well with some of the "stick-in-the-mud" goldbugs around here, which I am in spades. The problem, is that I subscribed to his letter because the sky was falling. Well, it hasn't yet, and, that's his point.
He still is a hardcore GB, but he sees that there are currents and torrents that are changing the face of business.
We shouldn't ignore the opportunities that are here, just to focus on the eventual collapse of fiat money.

FIX the blazer. I own one outright. Paid cash for it. Stay out of debt, prices are going down. You are far better off consuming less and saving for your real needs. JOPO.

I rebuilt my '74 last year for
$1300us...a two sets of Ujoints
this year, next the gearbox...
still waaaay ahead $-wise, yep.
and with that 7foot beast, no one
gets too close on the highway.
and if it gets wrecked?
get another! that new rig will
drop in value as fast as a Tbill.
;' )
MHO, natch.
lets see...i got my rig for 'bout
7oz-AU, maybe 8oz...that wont even
insure a new rig in some places.
but hey, wait a few months and
only pay 3oz!
HaHaHaHa

with superior after-market parts...a suggestion put in an auxiliary 50 gallon fuel tank in it...yup...it won't be that long...there will be a zillion hardly used SUVs pick-up trucks for sale on the market at baragin prices...if you want to...I personally would not...

Or think of it this way...when the rest of the country is decimated you will be driving that "old" clunker and can sit and complain about the bad times without anyone being the wiser...and have an almost brand new rig to boot...offer a good mechanic the extra $ up front for a package deal...and see what the mechanic has to say...if you like the deal...give him half up front and the rest as it needs to be paid out until the truck is better than new...

on the rest of the vehicle. If you fix the tranny, will that do it for a good while? If you don't, what will you get for it anyway?
I'd say that there are vast numbers of SUV's coming off lease in the next year, which might flood the market. It seems as though this fad has been going for about three years; about the length of leases.
There are a lot of people that might not be able to carry the debt of these, now that there is a severe downturn in maufacturing, so there could be more supply on the barely-used market.
If the car is going to eat you alive, then dump it.

Personally I'm not spending a red cent on anything non essential till after Y2k.
I'm not willing to call the directions that things will head in.

Imagine if 15% of the workforce gets laid off - how many cheap cars will there be then.

We may find that many goods will deflate totally in value as the market place gets swamped with debtors trying to get out of debt by selling their assets.

Cash will be king but when does one buy.
My time frame is looking at a deflationary bottom coming in around 2005 approx.
It should coincide with a PM top.
Perhaps the brunt of the fall will happen much sooner but it may take that long till things start to turn around. 2007 at the latest?

As for interest rates.
What is happening in many OS countries when economics go sour?
Rates rise fast as risk is priced in.
Is the US too big to thwart these effects - I don't know.
Turn the power off for two months and find out.

So perhaps the last country standing may have low rates to stimulate it's economy but many others will see rates rise out of reach of the common man.
It is already happening and catching many out.
The worse the impact the higher the risk in lending.

Over all cash will be king and surplus cash may well give you great bargaining power.
Like the few in Asia who were buying Mercedes with a handful of gold coins.

If Y2k is a cruncher then many will have to sell much of what they own to settle there debts.
Already banks are reveiwing the credit worthyness of their customers.

Snoop around and find the person who has the greatest liability and the car of your choice and just wait patiently.
IMHO
-----
crazytimes
I think AG started a few weeks before the 87 crash.

I was surfing through the postings a few days ago and I read someone's account of their loss of power somewhere back east. I don't remember who the poster was but I want to thank them for putting things into perspective.

For the last 10 years I've made a lot of sacrafices including being away from home almost every weekend, driving an older car, living in an apartment, foregoing the vacations and living a relatively frugal lifestyle so I could pursue my dream.

After almost 10 years of hard labor I have almost completed my home in the high Sierras. I have a fairly good sized piece of land. So big in fact that I had never explored the lower 1/3 of it until last weekend.

On my way to this area I was confronted by 3-400 pound bear which I came upon quite by accident while exploring some rock formations. A little further I entered a very rugged area with a mountain stream running through it, complete with dozens of spectacular waterfalls coursing through canyons of solid granite.

I never knew this area existed and I doubt the owners I purchased this property from knew about it either due to it's inaccessibility.

My house is completely solar powered. I get my water from a mountain spring and heat is obtained simply by walking down a trail and picking up the fuel to be found lying everywhere around me.

I have always been bothered by the idea of being dependent on society for my survival and have walked a different path than my ciy friends.

Whatever happens, I am going to spend a lot of time in this world I have created. It is a little surprising to me to read postings about buying a generator or somehow modifying a suburban home to run off of solar, etc.

I am a little sad that it takes the threat of a disaster to force people to confront being self sufficient. There is so much knowledge that has passed from our fathers and grandfathers that is priceless and can never be recovered.

I am very disturbed, perhaps as much as anyone else residing at this site, by our political leaders actions. But to those who who are sickened by this daily parade of insanity I encourage you to search for a piece of property that you love and let it teach you the things that the rest of society seems to have forgotten.

No matter how hard I try I can't seem to interest the mountains in market discussions or political dialogue. The cities are owned by the same carneys who run the markets and everything else. Are these moldy little scraps of conveniences really worth fighting over? or risking one's life for?

The mountains are full of life and adventure. And maybe if you whisper just the right words to the lady in the mountain she will share some of her gold with you.

JTF : repair it I got a 1968 Malibu i exercise once a week . I'll be ready for the " Why Took A " crash !

Was reading you post and came to the line "Banks could loan money against gold savings accounts" ... ok, not verbatum but you know what I mean....

I just realized...the banks don't have money to lend,they only have gold to lend....where would the "money" come from unless it was "created" by some one ( Fed? )

this is exactly where some of the money was created to drive this strong tulip mania

Don't ever believe in handing over gold to a bank....don't think one would ever see it again

Thoughts?

I attribute my addiction to adversity to an unusual upbringing. I can say that I am most truly fearful of the coming of a day that has no fear. In that, this day could possibly be a strange harbinger of a time in life dominated by boredom, passiveness and contentment. This would be a naughty web about my soul and the soul of my people.

Regarding my positive nature and its natural affinity for our beloved gold......I remember back fourteen years when the bankers essentially gave away oil wells which they had confiscated from good men who had dug them. These banking men and women of supposed intellectual and financial understanding placed no future value on these relics.

I was happy to place my name on these wells. And as it turns out, these barbaric, "worthless" wells have allowed me to place my name on other fine things of interest. Today, I see GOLD and SILVER as having the same potential empowerment for the individual tough-minded enough to endure the slings and arrows of criticism, second GUESSING and unpopularity.

But as my dearly missed Dad, Big Collie, used to say "It's always good to have a leeetle cash around...just in case." So don't get in there toooooo deep...or someone else's name will be on your gold and silver when it's a goodly fun time to claim it.

The answer is NEITHER. If you are happy with an older vehicle that doesn't lose half its value in the first 30 months and yet the old vehicle is a bit of a 'clunker', what is the obvious answer? Simple. Search out a 'new' used vehicle that is similar to what you have but that is in much better shape and possibly with much lower mileage than your present one. Look around, they're out there. I bet you can find a real beaut for $5-6,000. There; best of both worlds. If you need to know where to send the golden eagle coin my e-mail is: moonstep@idirect.com
Oh yeah, don't forget to sell 'ol Bessie to some youngster who has a mechanical bent. Recycle and keep the $500. for your first 6 months gas.
350 - Good Engine. Two years ago I sold a 1976 Delta 88 Royale with a 350 and only 47,000 original miles. I had it only one year, ( Big Boat gas guzzeler ) , bought it from an 86 year old lady who had it since new and changed the oil every 6 months ( every 1,000 miles! ) , bought it for my 17 year old son to learn on. Had new muffler system just installed, tuned, good brakes, tires, A/C, everything. You could stand 10 feet from it and not be able to tell if it was running or not, it was that quiet. Sold it to a friend with a baby ( Big Boats are great protection for young families ) . AAR - The deals are out there. Support Mother Earth - Recycle. Support your family and put the extra money ( instead of buying that $30,000. computer car/truck ) into Silver and Gold!

Since SS is the exclusive province of govt and since stock ownership implies company ownership ...... doesn't that mean that the govt will then be become a business owner??? Is that really what we want or need?

The mere concept should ring bells from here to hell. Imagine the deepest of irresponsible pockets, connected to a brokerage industry of limitless greed and infinite political connivance ........ and no one is responsible for anything. Sounds good to me. ..... Where do I sign up? Oops. Guess I am already.

This suggestion, coming as it does, from a body of raw force exceeded in magnitude only by its sheer and inescapable incompetence, should absolutely chill the blood of any reasonable individual who was not born with his or ber head locked solidly in the gear up position. Never mind the fact that this same 'august' body is still, after 200 hundred years of existence, unable to display an accounting system that even comes within leagues of the standard and acceptable definition. i.e.: the present budget surplus, so called. .... Or how'bout: The IRS loses $11 billion and hasn't a clue where it went?

The mere fact that this dreadful scheme of investment will be run, by an idiot committee, for political advantage, at every conceiveable turn, and not by an individual for his personal gain should be enough to deter all but the most incorribeable of pollyannas. Just imagine, if you can, the flow of funds from the money masters to the political masters. Corruption of immense and unstoppable degree.

In short, it's mind boggling horse crap of the highest order. Something straight out of the asylum.

Since SS is the exclusive province of govt and since stock ownership implies company ownership ...... doesn't that mean that the govt will then be become a business owner??? Is that really what we want or need?

The mere concept should ring bells from here to hell. Imagine the deepest of irresponsible pockets, connected to a brokerage industry of limitless greed and infinite political connivance ........ and no one is responsible for anything. Sounds good to me. ..... Where do I sign up? Oops. Guess I am already.

This suggestion, coming as it does, from a body of raw force exceeded in magnitude only by its sheer and inescapable incompetence, should absolutely chill the blood of any reasonable individual who was not born with his or ber head locked solidly in the gear up position. Never mind the fact that this same 'august' body is still, after 200 hundred years of existence, unable to display an accounting system that even comes within leagues of the standard and acceptable definition. i.e.: the present budget surplus, so called. .... Or how'bout: The IRS loses $11 billion and hasn't a clue where it went?

The mere fact that this dreadful scheme of investment will be run, by an idiot committee, for political advantage, at every conceiveable turn, and not by an individual for his personal gain should be enough to deter all but the most incorribeable of pollyannas. Just imagine, if you can, the flow of funds from the money masters to the political masters. Corruption of immense and unstoppable degree.

In short, it's mind boggling horse crap of the highest order. Something straight out of the asylum.

Okay.....so we're a leetle bit craaaaaaaaazy......and a leeetle bit country toooooo. I tell my neighbors.....I've got a really bad gopher problemO. I recommend post hole banks for ALL!!!!!!!

Can we remember exactly how the Arab embargo was "orchestrated"? I see this as an ever-present possibility ( pre Y2K ) ....to "kick start" our precious. I would not want to be without gold right now...period.

un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!! as always.

If you email me I will advise you as personally, as I can.
Reify@sitcom.co.il

Hey - I go off line to answer JTF and come back on and post and find out everyone and his mother did the same! JTF hit the response jackpot! Listen. A lot said to fix it. That really depends on its present state and mileage. I spent $5,000 fixing an '82 a few years back due to the fact that I had fallen in love with the vehicle. BIG mistake. Fixed tranny first, then gas tank, muffler system, then water pump and some other stuff. Thought OK this is great, should last a while. BOOM - engine needed replacing. At that point I thought - what the heck - bought the exact same vehicle and had THAT engine transferred into my 'baby'.Next all the small things started going, you know, wipers, trim started leaking in the car wash, electronic things etc. One more winter and the rust was getting ridiculous. Sold my 'baby' for $400. to a friend who had the exact same vehicle as me only in worse shape. ( He took parts off of 'his' and put them onto 'mine'. ) At the time I let her go she had about 298,000 miles. Don't know what my friend has it up to! MORAL - Don't fall in love with your car/truck. Make an economic decision! Many people have lovingly maintained vehicles for many years ( often since new ) and then have to sell ( for one reason or other ) with low mileage. If this vehicle is 10-25 years old you can buy a reliable vehicle for very reasonable cost! Night ALL!

Date: Wed Jan 20 1999 21:22
Auric ( Studio.R ) ID#257312:
Copyright  1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I've been convinced for some time that a financial crash is inevitable. Thought it
was
going to happen a lot sooner. My only question is, will something trigger it before
y2k
does? Still accumulating the G's ( Gold, gulps, grog... etc ) . New Topic-- I down
about
8 diet cokes a day. Had a high school volunteer at work tell me how dangerous
aspartime ( nutraSweet ) is. Even referenced a scientific article from Vibrant
Health
magazine! Supposed to cause one's mental functions to decline. Well, I informed
that
volunteer that I am burying Gold in my back yard, and am taking cash out of the
bank
and hiding it. Heh heh, you should have seen the look I got! Ahh aspartime, it
does a
body good!
***************************************
EB writes:
I wouldn't touch a Diet Drink with an ingredient aspartame, nor do I like MSG much
either...................baaaaaaaaad stuff. For all you controversy/conspirational buffs, there
was something about wanting to get FDA approval to change the name of nutraSweet to
something else.................. ( hmmmmmmmmm ) ..................and one of the heads of FDA
quit his job and later started a $mil/yr job working in management
for........................yup...........related to..............nutrasweet.......................... ( LGB, would you call
this fringe stuff?? ) ............................... ( hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... I dunno
anymore.....................I just drink beer ( not light ) , tea, wine and water, tequila............................ ( not usually in
that order ;- ) ) ............ ( ohmy ) .
http://hsv.com/pub_serv/aspertim/index.htm
I do suggest one ANOTHER read this thoroughly..........indeedy.
---------------------------------------------------
away.......to home
done

Life is for living. Go for it. I'm conspiring to join you .... but not in the Sierra. More like the Blues of E. OR.

The President says we are rich, have lots of surplus, and he is bygod going to spend it. Congress will not stand in his way. Hell, they'll add their own pork. The public is sure not going to complain. The government is fixing to spend like there is no tomorrow. I don't see anything to stop them either.

A Valedictory from Bill.

Lazies and Jellymen,

As pressygent of our marbleless prepubic it is my purrpiss to undress you with inexactitudes
and utter pies we have cooked up. I subsex louts of monicas will not be explored in pubic.
Those purient about there, will see sex in my pleads and pants for internal understanding.
They pray I am despicably sordid spoiling a good skirt but please dismember when I am done
that every prestigent of our doubled republic knows about sex.
Not one has been a bachelor so in the end desember that I did know the drawback. It was her.
All the udders wore has beans that I have begotten.
It is bad - mad - cad - sad that a grate bleeder of this most gullible matron on birth - er earth,
had cause to muffer.
"Remember some of the things some of the time; some of the things afterward; and the good bits
when we are bored."
And another sex Prezidunit said, "Never let the Press Club no anything. The bastads always tell.
These are the bastads what dun me in."
The wimmin was - is wunderfool. She did not tell me she likes cigars.
I always sid wimmen must not smoke.
It is bad for their children.

A Valedictory from Bill.

Lazies and Jellymen,

As pressygent of our marbleless prepubic it is my purrpiss to undress you with inexactitudes
and utter pies we have cooked up. I subsex louts of monicas will not be explored in pubic.
Those purient about there, will see sex in my pleads and pants for internal understanding.
They pray I am despicably sordid spoiling a good skirt but please dismember when I am done
that every prestigent of our doubled republic knows about sex.
Not one has been a bachelor so in the end desember that I did know the drawback. It was her.
All the udders wore has beans that I have begotten.
It is bad - mad - cad - sad that a grate bleeder of this most gullible matron on birth - er earth,
had cause to muffer.
"Remember some of the things some of the time; some of the things afterward; and the good bits
when we are bored."
And another sex Prezidunit said, "Never let the Press Club no anything. The bastads always tell.
These are the bastads what dun me in."
The wimmin was - is wunderfool. She did not tell me she likes cigars.
I always sid wimmen must not smoke.
It is bad for their children.

I don't own any vehicles less than 10 years old. My plan is, keep them going a while longer unless the engine goes. It won't be long before a huge number of SUV's and all others go on the market cheap, and then cheap-er. Additionally, as unemployment rises, auto mechanics will be happy to do the work for less money, or maybe barter. I might be looking to buy a couple of three-year-old vehicles, fresh off their leases, but the bargains will be a while yet. And much better bargains will be had by buying direct from fully-paid-up owners who no longer justify their second or third vehicle. I think you will save many thousands of dollars by waiting 6 to 10 months. Go ahead and plow the $1000. into yours, and you will save much, much more than that by waiting on a larger purchase.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg
It looks to be breaking down somewhat.
I'd expect another couple of cycles before that last straw breaks.

--
What's happened to Quote.com - down and out???


----
Whispers from the grapevine.
Have some food and stores put away by the first week in April.
NERC tests could be more than most expect.

Want to be caught unprepared???

More info to be released late January.

JTF -- Couldn't help myself. A lot of it depends on how 'anxious' you are to just simply replace the Blazer with new looks and appearance. Most people just simply get tired of looking at an old beast that needs a lot of work: Seats, weather stripping, analog radio, Radiator/heater core on last legs, carpet dirt and stains that just won't come out; paint that is chipped, peeling, or just won't shine anymore. 100s of hours involved making it 'nice' again. Been there, done that. And it did make it look nice and run nice for a long while. Not just one, but several. Consider it as something to keep idle fingers and cash busy. Key word being 'idle'! Paying someone else to do it all is not necessarily economically feasible, unless it would be remade into THE vehicle YOU want to keep.
Next thing to consider is how much/many/cost of repairs you've put into it that may alleviate those potentials down the road a bit. ( You didn't say. ) I.E., Is a lot of stuff liable to go out soon? Is it worth the further pain? It might easily be said that in weighing all in the balance that it may easily be much more worthwhile in the exploration of something in much grander condition that is in the neighborhood of 10 years younger to begin with. It would NOT cost 30K, and it would NOT be new ( but new to you it would be ) . It does not mean it would not need repairs soon. It does mean that it might still be a more dependable set of wheels. You have to be the overall judge. A little due diligence is always warranted in any major ( minor? ) purchase. The only things on the used markets are those things that are about to break, those that are a little broke, and those that are real lemons. Be aware. Afterall, they ARE being sold for a reason, though there are also those who simply always trade in after a year or two. You'll pay big bucks for those though. At this point I recommend you further discuss the 'possibilities' with your wife. First, really decide about the current vehicle; 'yea or nay'. If nay, put your nose in the classifieds; your ears to the pavement; your voice of the matter to your friends and neighbors and see what might appear. Hope you don't really have to be too impatient/'MUST have wheels now'. Decent bargains typically go to those with the cash and patience. Best wishes...

a must read

Rehabing older vehicles is definitely the way to go for the unforseeable future. Too many black boxes and perishable electronic systems cram the firewall on modern cars and trucks. Right now though, I'm pondering how to harden some of my farm machines ( like generators ) against EMP--ElectroMagnetic Pulse, the circuit-stopping surge caused by a nuclear exchange.
Does anyone have a site or ideas about this problem?

As long as we're talking Vee-hickles*, member my car that was stolen and run over a bank in Tuakau? [You should see the cow] I had an agreed value insurance, so they insurance co couldn't dick me around with "depreciation" and current value. I went out and bought a new ( er ) Toyota {to replace the Fnord}. Pleased as I was with my choice, I was over the mn when my garage mate told me that a friend of his had paid 3 x the price for the same car 18 Months previous.

Like others here, I am deferring all major item purchases [and quite a few 'minor' items, save gold] for about 400 days.

Remember, NZ has just reported its first -ve increase in Consumer Price Index CPI in 40 years, and still the talking heads won't call it deflation.

Someone, please, what the hay is a SUV, and a CRV. I got the "V" bit. **

read somewhere that 75% ( high?..low? ) of silver production comes as a "by product" in the mining of another mineral ( copper zinc lead and ? )

if NERC shuts down the nuks...I belive they produce 20% of total supply...then we need to get rid of 20% of demand

Phelpes dodge has a mine in Silver City, New Mexico...afriend who use to a an accountant with them told me they used as much electricty as Tucson AZ ( pop. 600,000 ) ....don't think that the cities will be dark while the mines are working...

Question is ....how is this going to affect the $ of the poor mans gold?

zeke
If you're really worried about EMP from a nuclear exchange, why are you worried whether your tractor's still gonna run? You'll get no parts, no fuel and no grains inside one quarter.

KYAG.


ie

Kiss Your Arse Goodbye

Zeke -- Typically, a 'Faraday cage' would work. Essentially, that is surrounding, on all six surfaces, the area with a fine copper screen or solid surface, and properly grounding it. make sure the seams for door ( s ) are in proper contact. Any cables/circuitry protruding/connecting from/to it must also be shielded. I calculate it as a hopeless cause unless all is 'contained' therein until after an EMF pulse. I once read that the induced voltage magnitude/inch of wire was quite tremendous. Forget what the exact numbers were. But they were certainly more than our typical circuitry would ever withstand. Especially since our wiring is in feet/yards/miles! Even circuit boards have lots of inches of copper inteconnecting voltage sensitive/fusible circuitry.

State Controller Fears ``Ripple Effect'' of Y2K
Non-Compliant Companies

Connell Suggests California's Small Businesses Prepare Contingency
Plans

SAN JOSE, Calif.-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Jan. 20, 1999--State Controller Kathleen Connell Wednesday released a report by
her office raising concern that Y2K non-compliance by California's small and medium-sized companies could cause severe
negative financial repercussions in the state.

``While many California companies are well on their way to attaining Y2K compliance, we must beware of the weak links,
whose failure could have a choking effect on the state's commerce,'' said Connell, addressing a symposium at Oracle Corp.

``Many California businesses will encounter major disruptions in service due to the non-compliance of their vendors and other
entities they depend on. Resulting delays and diminished inventories, coupled with the threat of excessive litigation, could cost
the state billions of dollars -- adversely impacting our economy.''

Connell noted that surveys suggest that as many as 50 percent of the nation's data processing organizations will not have their
software Y2K-compliant by 2000.

This low level of compliance in many of California's small and medium-sized companies could result in lost orders, incorrect
billing and accounting, supply chain interruptions and other mishaps, causing a negative ``ripple effect'' throughout California's
economy.

``Small businesses' internal planning to be Year 2000-compliant will be critical to the state as we try to limit the amount of
damage done to California's fiscal condition,'' said Connell.

``Y2K preparedness should be a top priority for all companies, including small businesses. Any company dragging its feet on
this issue simply does not understand the magnitude of this universal phenomenon and could subject itself to serious damage,
even possible extinction in worst case scenarios.''

Connell also stressed the importance of public entities ensuring their own Y2K compliance. ``The Controller's Office assessed
its exposure to the Year 2000 bug. We've met the state's executive order, ahead of schedule, mandating compliance in our
mission-critical computer systems. We will continue to test our system's readiness throughout the year and assist business
partners in their Y2K preparations.''

Connell noted that no enterprise can be completely certain of conducting business as usual when Jan. 1, 2000, arrives. Her
report advises companies to assume everything is non-ready until proven otherwise. The success of an entity's survival may well
depend on the comprehensiveness of its contingency plan -- an emergency process that describes when the plan should be
executed, steps to be taken, and identifies work that must be completed in order for the plan to work.

``Companies should be prepared for the worst, and have a triage plan already in place to allocate resources where they are
needed first,'' she added.

The report also raised concern that ``opportunistic'' litigation may be thrust upon companies that have prepared for Y2K in
good faith but, due to factors beyond their control, still experience system failures.

The Controller raised the possibility that she may sponsor liability legislation to ensure that innocent California companies will
not be vulnerable to runaway litigation despite their best efforts to be Y2K compliant.

Note to editors: The full report is available at www.sco.ca.gov, or call 916/445-2636.

Ooops
Just realised that my penultimate post could be read as an endorsement for insurances over these turbulent times.
If the past is anything to go by, and it's all we've got, during the first major deflationary downwave there is any increased claim on insurance, much of this is fraudulent. However, there can be a run on insurance companies, just like there can be a run on banks.
IMHO, it is very prudent to check this financial strength of your insurer, though that might not help you at the end of the day. The practice by which Insurance companies "Lay-Off" the risk to each other can lead to an almost unwitting focussing of liability in some smaller Insurance companies. When Insurance companies fall, they fall like banks. {in Tuakau}

Got Dominoes?

Clintons people got Yeltsin elected now they are trying to control Israel's elections. James Carvel and the Democratic Party Pollster are at work again. By the way Carvel was in Argentina when the burglary occurred. He really gets around. He was on the Chinese Panama trip????

Speaking on Israel Radio Wednesday, Netanyahu said the burglaries may have been set up to embarrass him and his Likud Party.

``We witness, suddenly, a second break-in. The first was absurd but the second, in the same place, occurred while the FBI was watching,'' Netanyahu said. ``I hope that we aren't dealing with political provocations whose intent is to create false accusations.''
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100o.htm

HighRise

http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19990120/financial/0916856735-0000004303.html

Eldorado, I believe the Faraday Cage will work. Copper is so expensive retail, a full cage would be out of the question. The small box idea is a good one.
Aurator. Bye the bye, the tractor ( diesel of course ) is used to turn the Wenco 25kw generator--don't want it to shut down during the firestorm. It's on top of the ground; I'm in the bunker.

Donald posted sometime back that that vehicle production abilities of the world are/will be approx 50% more than current sales in the near future. With the Asian collapse and now South America I would be willing to bet vehicles will be cheaper in the future. If we get some sort of economic collapse you can buy a SUV for chump change. That is what I think will happen.
Just be sure you have the cash as bank loans might be hard to come by.

for an eager looking gold chart...
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ANGLY&d=1y

http://www.the-journal.co.uk/jnl-cfm/newsstory.cfm?storyno=81359

Given any event that includes EMP's; I think you will find that it's God's way of saying: "All bets are off".

http://www.the-journal.co.uk/jnl-cfm/news_story.cfm?StoryId=81351?cture=YES&Frame=Features