Perhaps it's just an ugly rumor
of companies of mighty strength
and just some foolish things they do
I want to say but I must not
Perhaps it's true perhaps it's not
If you perhaps like riddles do
then this here one might interest you
cbsh+ ( several billion ) +~ ( gears, leavers, ( calculus !integral ) ) +~ ( vampires, baseball, cricket? ) = ( red dimmed tide ) + ( more money than there is )
Seriously, I think the best argument for not buying a new 4WD SUV this year is that it is now reaching 'FAD' stage. In my Mid-America town, fully 1/4 of the 1999 Ford trucks on one of the truck dealers lots is 4WD- either Ford Explorer, F150, or Ford Sport version of Ford Explorer.
Oddly enough, the Toyota 4-runner ( probably the best ) is also about 30k, and so is the Toyota Tacoma. The Dodge place -- Dodge Ram, and Dodge Durango are 30k as well. Here's another interesting point -- I like buying 4x8 panels for occupational 'therapy' when not working -- lot of repair projects. None of the new SUV's can handle 4x8 panels with the back door closed and window open. Only the ol'81 Blazer can do this.
No matter how you ask the question, it comes out 30k. And -- all the dealers have about 4 car dealers per customer, all eager to make a deal with someone where 'money is no object'. Counted nearly 100 SUVS, in a 1/2 mile radius, if 2WD is included. The salesmen definitely cool off when you say you know vehicle option costs from the Net, want 5.9% interest rates, and would consider flying 1000 miles to save $10k. Some started with 9% rates!
What do I think about this when I could buy a Mercedes, Volvo, or Lincoln SUV's if I were nuts enough? Some had leather interiors as an option. Really odd when the 4 seater pickup 4WD costs the same as all the others. Leather for the pickup too if you want it. This SUV fad bubble is going to pop -- probably about the time the Furbies fizzle. And the markets?
I'm fixing the Y2k compliant ( by default ) 81 Blazer. I know this thing inside and out, and can just about fix it with my eyes closed. A 'good used' 4WD is asking for trouble, given what people do to them -- a new engine/transmission for a good used 4WD would cost 3x as much the same thing for my old heap.
By the way -- the old '56 imperial still works -- drove about 100k miles all over the US with it pulling a trailer. Got it for nothing. Still has twice the tow capability of the Blazer -- but absolutely lousy ground clearance. Nearly got stuck once 10 stories up in the spiral up ramp of a Seattle parking garage ( without trailer ) ! What I loved was passing all the other trailered vehicles on the long up hills. 300 horsepower- conservatively rated. 18MPG highway. Great for going up hill in San Francisco -- but absolutely scary going downhill. Terrible brakes. Nearly wound up in the SF Bay once.
Real Goods Trading Company is a great y2k store, because its stock has not really moved since they went public, and they have arguably the single best alternative energy source book available anywhere in the world. They are not particularly efficient wrt to making money, but y2K is going to be perceived as big enough an event to make it really fly! Perhaps others can come up with other Y2k stocks -- sadly Generac seems not to have gone public. Don't know about Kohler or Yanmar. Honda is too big for it to by Y2k -dependent. How about a Y2k compliant chip company? They probably got bankrolled without having to go public.
I figure a few more months at least before the next financial crisis. They come in bunches, and Brazilian dust seems to be settling at the moment. I'm waiting for the next downspike in precious metals.
I think Aldebaran is right -- that the way to go is natural gas or 500 gallon or so propane tank. Natural gas is much cleaner burning than gasolene, and much more easily stored without getting in trouble with the authorities. Easy to buy the tanks in my part of the world. Anyone know where to get parts/natural gas conversions for Generac? I would like to get a nice low noise muffler so that I don't wake up the neighbors. By the way, in the US the Utility deregulation has meant that utility repairmen may now need to come from out of state to fix your wires -- not good if all states in your neighborhood have a power problem at the same time.
To Gold by Some Investors
By TERZAH EWING
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Robert McKeeman isn't a typical gun-and-bunker kind of guy.
But the 44-year-old Harvard Business School graduate has one thing in
common with hard-core survivalists: He recently upped his investment in
precious metals because of the year 2000 problem.
Mr. McKeeman is entirely
reasonable when he discusses the
shift in his investments: It is a hedge,
says the Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.,
resident, something to protect his
investments in case there are
problems in the financial markets.
Specifically, he has increased the
proportion of his portfolio allocated to
gold and gold-mining stocks to 20%
from 5%.
"The rest of the world isn't taking the
issue seriously," he says, noting that
he arrived at that conclusion after
observing some other firms' Y2K preparations through his job. And while a
spate of recent publicity for the problem has heartened him, he says, "It's not
going to be the end of the world, but it won't have zero effects either."
Joining the More Paranoid
That is a far cry from the sentiments of the people in 999, when the
still-scattered peoples of Europe awaited 1000 in genuine fear of an
apocalypse. But the old concern has an echo in the new, technological
worry. And faced with Y2K, ordinary people, many of whom work in
high-tech industries, are joining the more paranoid in turning part of their
portfolios over to gold and other precious metals.
The year 2000 problem occurs when older computers that are programmed
for dates with two digits representing the year malfunction or shut down.
While they now read "99" as 1999, for example, they could interpret Jan. 1,
2000, as the year 1900.
There aren't any statistics available on how many investors are taking this
tack, but perhaps it isn't just coincidence that the U.S. Mint, which makes
bullion coins from gold, silver and platinum, had a record year in 1998, selling
more than 1.8 million ounces of gold American Eagle coins, the most since
the program's frenzied launch in 1986. And gold isn't the only coin selling
well. The mint temporarily has had to stop making its one-ounce silver coin
because the unusual level of demand has overwhelmed manufacturing
capacity at the firms that supply the mint with blank coins.
Precious-Metals Prices
Officials at Blanchard & Co., the country's biggest seller of
investment-grade coins, say their business, too, is benefiting. Christopher
Holton, director of marketing, estimates between 20% and 25% of the New
Orleans firm's 112,000 individual-investor clients expressed concerns about
Y2K last year. Since the beginning of January, which brought many
year-2000-related stories on television and in newspapers, he says,
Blanchard account executives report that 80% of the clients they talk to are
worried about the computer problem. The company recommends clients put
10% of total assets in gold, rare gold coins and other hard assets.
None of this has done much for precious-metals prices. In the past two
years alone, the price of gold has fallen more than $120 an ounce to
historically low levels. The February futures price at the New York
Mercantile Exchange's Comex division settled at $287.50 an ounce
Wednesday, near its lowest level in decades.
Gold buying related to the year 2000 is largely an American phenomenon,
says Philip Klapwijk, managing director at Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd.,
London. Most global gold traders are concerned instead with the market's
large issues, such as central-bank sales and lending of gold. Meanwhile,
silver and platinum prices, while not as weak as gold, haven't enjoyed any
Y2K-related spikes either. Some analysts, aware of year-2000-related gold
buying, say Y2K investors, ironically, could spark further precious-metals
bear markets if and when the problem is averted and investors turn around
and sell.
"What we may find is that if you get into the end of January or February
2000 and nothing happens, you're going to get a lot of that [Y2K] gold sold
back into the market," says James Steel, a commodity analyst with Refco
Inc. in New York. But Mr. Steel says he knows a lot of year-2000-related
gold buyers in Silicon Valley. "That's like when all the doctors quit smoking.
You knew it was really bad," he says.
Open Interest
He also points to the relatively high open interest, or number of open trading
positions, in December 1999 call options on gold at the Nymex. ( Call options
give their owners the right to buy the underlying commodity at a specified
price. ) Exchange statistics show total open interest in the December calls at
99,512 contracts as of Jan. 15, compared with 64,633 contracts for June
1999 calls and 31,856 contracts for June 2000 calls. Mr. Steel says, "In a
large measure, that's attributable to Y2K buying."
Options players aside, many of the Y2K precious-metals investors are part
of the group that is buying generators and stockpiling food. They say
precious metals could serve as a stop-gap currency if networks fail and
people can't draw on their bank accounts with checks or ATM cards.
Julie Ehlers, a 31-year-old West Orange, N.J., housewife and former
investment adviser, says she has bought krugerrands, South Africa's gold
bullion coins, and shifted most of her 401 ( k ) plan into short-term Treasury
bills and a precious-metals fund. Gold is actually more attractive because it
is at a historic low, she says. If the investment proves unnecessary, she
says, "all I'll have lost will be some interest at a bank, at most. In some of
the really ridiculous [Y2K] scenarios, this could save my life. That would be
bizarre and unlikely." But, she adds, "I'm spending less on this than on fire
insurance."
In other commodity markets:
LUMBER: A surprisingly strong U.S. housing report helped to send
Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures to their highest level in 16 months,
analysts and traders said. U.S. housing starts hit an 11-year high in
December, rising 3.5% in the month to an annual rate of 1.72 million units,
the Commerce Department reported. Economists had expected a more
modest rise of about 1%. The feverish pace of the U.S. housing market
points to continued strong demand in a rapidly tightening lumber market,
analysts said.
The CME's front-month March contract surged $10, its exchange-imposed
daily limit, at the opening Wednesday in response to the housing report and
held those gains to close at $348.70 per thousand board feet, its highest level
ever and the highest close for a nearby contract since September 1997. The
May contract rose its $10 limit, closing at $334 per thousand board feet.
In addition to the housing data, the market got a lift from a rallying cash
market. Random Lengths, a Eugene, Ore., newsletter considered the
industry's bible for cash pricing, printed a benchmark cash price of $316 per
thousand board feet in its midweek report, up $8 from Friday and up $13
from a week ago. But by the day's end, cash lumber sold for about $325 at
the mill level, with some producers asking as much as $338, traders said.
Wednesday was the second straight day in which March futures closed up
their daily limit, as supply worries intensify. "There's a whiff of panic in the
air," said Graham Dallimore, vice president at Global Futures Corp. in
Vancouver, British Columbia.
SUGAR: World raw sugar futures on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa
Exchange unit of the New York Board of Trade fell, as speculative
commodity funds continued the selling they began during Tuesday's fall. The
March contract dropped 0.17 cent to 7.52 cents a pound. Continued
uncertainty about the latest economic upheaval in Brazil, speculation that
Russia won't be as big a buyer as hoped, and weakening premiums for Thai
raw sugar are contributing to the market's gloomy tone, said Anthony
Compagnino, a trader with East Coast Options Services Inc. in New York.
HOGS: Lean hog futures and pork belly futures rose by their limit on the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange due to talk of export business that couldn't be
confirmed. The February hog contract rose two cents to 40.82 cents a
pound. "The hogs and the bellies traded on more rumor than fact," said
Chuck Levitt, analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "The trade
looked at stories indicating that Japan might be in the market for some less
expensive pork cuts, like bellies."
--David E. Parkinson, Janet Whitman and Robin K. Taylor contributed
to this article.
Return to top of page | Format for printing
Copyright 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
and gold will soar when the netstox crash........ ( N-O-T )
A little clue.....can you say p-r-o-f-i-t-t-a-k-i-n-g? They have taken back most of what they gave up this am...........on HUGE volume. These stox will not crash anytime soon and gold will not soar anytime soon and George Soros will still put his pants on one leg at a time and takes a sh!t just like everyone else..........soros schmoros.......
sheeeesh......
away......from wishful thinking
-------------------
"The market rallies 70 cents on reports of physical buying,
but it has a habit of falling $3.00 on the first sign of
trouble," said Scott Mehlman, bullion dealer with Credit
Lyonnais Rouse. "We still view any rally as a selling
opportunity."
Investment demand has been on a steady decline, he said.
"It's not really a political or inflation hedge anymore," he
said. "As long as production costs keep declining, there's no
reason to cut production. Fundamentally, you have to be
bearish."
---------------------
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2558121314-1e4
ASB.......... ( not so tomorrow ) ................ ( kerplunk ) ........................ ( ouch ) .......... ( ugh ) ....................... ( sob ) ...............
if'n ya can't beat 'em............... ( ? )
One thing for sure.....you can bet there will be sharks in the tank buying the netcrazestox soon.......the same ones who sold the bejeeesus out of 'em...........tomorrow? Today?? Monday? Hmmmmmmm.....it will happen...the run is not over. It has to reach such sick exhuberence and such lofty heights as to make the fall REAL BaaaaaaD....uh-huh. Numbers like 60% nowadays don't seem to bother people................. ( don't get me wrong, it bothers me ) .......hseehs.......
away........to the charts
go golf
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
