All:
I do try and go back to complete where we left off. This question was offered for thought:
" Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of "freely traded" "managed gold"? "
This question has more impact on the gold market of today than it did then! In days past, it was held as good knowledge that the US stopped gold backing to protect the dollar and keep gold from leaving to other shores.
But, in the same time frame, all central banks did sell gold to all persons, even the US. All treasuries held gold and dollars as reserves. To what end did the world financial system gain with the dollar off gold backing, and then allowed to "dirty float" against all currencies? Would the world not have been better off to find gold revalued to, say $300 and then begin a "dirty float"? Noone would have lost, and the inflation would have , at best, not have been worse!
Truly, I tell the reason for this action. The US oil companies knew that the cheap reserves were found. The governments knew this also. The only low cost oil reserves in the world at this time were in the Middle East, and their cost to find and produce was very low. It was known, that, in time, ALL oil would come from this land. As much higher US dollar prices were needed to allow exploration and production of other reserves, worldwide. But, how to get crude prices, up, when the Gulf States were OK to pump and produce in exchange for "gold backed dollars"? I will not name the gentlemen that brought this thinking to the surface in that era, but it was discussed. It was known that oil liked gold. It was known that "local oil" would be used up without higher prices. What if, the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, and gold was managed "upward" to say, $208 per ounce? The dynamics of the market would force oil to rise and allow for much needed capital to search for the higher priced oil that was known to exist! The producers would find shelter in gold even as the price of oil was increased in terms of a now "non gold dollar"! Price inflation would rise, but gold and oil would also increase. The dollar would continue to be used as the only payment for oil, and in doing so replace gold as the backing for this "reserve currency". All would be fair.
The war in 1973 and the Iran problem did make markets "overshoot", but all did work to the correct end. The result was "a needed higher price for a commodity that was, as reserves, in much over supply by the wrong countries"! It was known that the public would never have accepted this "proposition" as fair. To this end, we have come.
And it is from this end, that the gold markets are managed for today! I do now take you to my post to Junior:
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:58
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
" You state: "The USA/IMF and its'Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices." ?" Mr. Junior,
Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight" a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency" that it would bring. Bring this thought into focus and you will understand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from "falling"! You think long and hard on this! "
All:
Look now and see if the US dollar does not "fight" for a high oil price! In every way, the question of supply disruptions is shown as the need for other suppliers. But, other suppliers cannot produce at a lower price? If the gulf states are allowed to bring oil "down" to it's true "fair" production price, in terms of a "correctly higher revalued" gold price, the US dollar would no longer be priced and backed by oil. Any paper trading currency would do. I would say, "if the Euro is strong in gold, and crude oil is allowed to be devalued by gold at $10,000 to $30,000, then all other paper currency reserves held against the EURO would be , "for show?"
"The world is going off the dollar standard as the dollar is going off the oil standard ", find this event "in your time"! We watch this new gold market, together, yes?
REPLY:
Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 09:58
Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ) ID#246224
" So the Euro will be an alternative to this? Its creators must have known that this 'inflation' of the USA and LBMA markets was not liked by oil. When was this recognized? Was this at the time of the Gulf War ( as you have implied in the past ) ? How was it recognized or communicated to Europe? Certainly the Euro has been built with this 'market' in mind? "
Allen,
The link to my writing was broken during our discussion. Some items were lost. I do now understand your thoughts. I will now reply, "as able, over time".
The Gulf War was the last insult! It was viewed as an attempt to show an "unstable area", but the war itself was not intentional, events were "out of control".
We must grasp that all commerce is done, at least, in the US dollar concept of "valuations of real things". In this way, " the true value of the purchase of real money" is hidden from view! Persons will say in the future, "how could gold be $500 one day and $5,000 the next"? I tell you now, it is already past that level, as in "present reserve currency dealings" it is not seen! Consider, that in all that you do and think, your "western values" are of paper concepts. From your birth, real things are not used to cross value themselves! When the battle to keep gold from devaluing oil ( in direct gold for oil terms ) is lost, the dollar will find "no problem" with $30,000 gold, as it will be seen as a "benefit for all" and "why did noone see this sooner"?
Thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:57
sharefin ( How can this be? ) ID#284255:
ANOTHER
" How can they reprice gold to $30,000? "
Mr. Sharfin,
This question from you, it proves for my eyes what I have said. Indeed, if I viewed as a western person, gold money as $30,000 paper dollar credits, my thoughts would also show " this cannot be"! But, from another world, I view this US$ and say "how can it be of such value to all and have numbers as the stars in heaven"? Please understand, money as paper or metal is as "perception of value in the minds of people". If all the gold held by earth were placed in the hands as money, it would be used to revalue every "real thing" at a fair price. A tiny fraction of gold would buy much production of goods and services, on a basis equal for all men, not as a debt for later settlement, as currencies are now!
Thank you
REPLY,
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:26
Myrmidon ( @ Another ) ID#345268:
" the US will confiscate gold coins and bullion some day? "
Sir,
I think, that gold will be viewed as money by the USA government. It's new, much higher price will offer a "way out" from many economic sins. In that day, persons will not try to "buy" gold, as it will already be used "as currency". To ask, "how can one afford $30,000 gold" would sound as today as "how can anyone afford $30,000 in savings account"? One does earn money, not afford it, yes?
Thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 23:12
ALBERICH__A ( @Another: EURO - Who Defends Arabia ? ) ID#254112:
" I'm very interested in your thoughts about the future impact of the possibility of a temporarily imploding US economy, the breakdown of the US$ as a reserve currency, on the geopolitical situation, especially on the ME?"
Sir,
From the past, to this day, America has held the "reserve currency" for the world. In that time, it has been the economic fuel for all economies. This is as it should be. However, this fuel was supplied as debt, borrowed from the future of children yet unborn. Neither myself, or any other person should enrich their home by holding the assets that give "bondage upon future life". It is as a "trader" that plays any side, without recourse for who is destroyed! "An investment without honor brings no gain to ones life"!
When the dollar is displaced, it will be as a "leveling" of the world economy. A few will learn to walk without the luxury of holding a debt upon others, "as an asset for gain". But, for every one that is brought low, ten others will gain from the loss of this dollar burden. And when one gains more in life than before, that same does "buy more" and such will be the new engine for the world economy under a new currency. A golden future is "just ahead"!
We must wait to view this "geopolitical situation".
Thank you
REPLY,
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 00:01
EJ ( ANOTHER: what do you expect as the timetable for the shift?
EJ,
With or without the Euro, we will change in the next few years or less!
"Money does never change, as do dreams of wealth
So we search for our future, but find out true worth from the past"
I will be gone for a time.
Thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 15:20
oris ( Fred ) ID#238422:
"Is it possible that gold will rise to $30,000/oz in the period of nearest 10 years?"
If you say to yourself: "Yes, it's possible!" then ask yourself a question: "But why? But how?".
To All:
This question, is asked much! To this I also add "what price is money?
Many look to gold and say, "at $30,000, every mine would produce so much that the price will not last", and "with cost to produce below $1,000, all persons would mine gold"! I say, you look at gold and see only a commodity. As world oil currency, it will not be this way. To offer the question:
Your US$, it does cost only one cent or less to produce. It is also a paper commodity, yes? Does the world go into the "paper dollar business" because it can be sold for a dollar and produced for "one cent"? I ask the Mr. Sharfin, "who would buy or who could afford this "dollar" at such a price? Would not every person sell these "paper dollars" as they are priced so far above production cost? No. And the world, today, does produce these paper pieces as "to no end", yet all persons hold dollars for value! Even reserves!
When any commodity becomes money, the free market is not allowed to produce such without laws to govern that production. As any person, worldwide can produce dollars and sell them as a business, it is "against the law". In the time to come, it will be this way with gold also.
The true value of gold, as a monetary currency, in today's current US$ values, is over $30,000. If all currencies were destroyed, and gold only was used, this value would be higher. However, currencies will be used in the future, as today, only their value in trade will change. They will no longer be held as reserves, without gold at their side!
The time is not that far away for all to learn this, we watch these changes together, yes?
Thank you
Mr. LGB,
I did come to Kitco with only my "THOUGHTS" to share. This thinking was offered to all and is "as free as the wind". Even as my writings were discussed by many, I did never find you to be a "fraud" or a "hoxier", as your words were offered with "good intent". Please, find my words "of record" that were spoken against you, and show them, "here"?
I find not the reason for your purpose of speech! It offers a nature of "confrontation" and "disruption" for persons of "simple ways" and "thoughts", such as I. As you have your "direction for life", I have a "purpose in life".
I wish you the blessing, "to walk tall with wealth, for all your days", "that one may complete the journey that is given for all to travel". I do instruct "another" to send my "thoughts" where "ears do not bite"!
Good Luck!
Thank You
All:
Together, we can talk of this new gold market. In a day, or two, we will have much to discuss. I look forward to this.
The Kitco Co., it offers more to the world than a business, "it provides a stage for minds to meet"! This service is of much value to all, yes?
Thank You
Mr. Sharfin, I thank you for saving my posts. Now I ask you?
Please read these words and consider:
" What Is The Real Price Of Gold IN The Central Bank World?"
If we look back thru the writings of Another, we find an old post that says something to this effect, "You think I am a fool because I trade gold for thousands US$ an ounce". It was a strange statement, but stranger still that no one asked about this. In the very beginning of these "THOUGHTS", the point was offered that gold had increased "dramatically in value these past few years"! This thinking was offered, even as it's currency price was falling to new many year lows. I ask about it today, especially in light of the post of :
"Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 17:11
Aragorn III ( Some thoughts for A.Goose in regard to COMEX and G*O*L*D ) ID#212323"
It is indeed, a paper game Mr. Aragorn, but it is a game of "some advantage", if one can see clearly. The one that posts using SDRer, has shown many times how "Gold Value" is used in international trade. What cannot be seen is the value of gold in the "INTERBANK" world. Here is the realm of "true valuations" in paper currency terms. It is a real shocker for lesser eyes.
In this modern world, the current value of every asset is formed by a relationship of gold/currencies/oil. This cross relationship is the "very basis of our modern world banking system"!
Through this basis, all currencies are given value as the local government treasuries hold US$ as reserves. The US$ is given backing as it's government is guaranteed, that all crude oil, worldwide, will be settled in dollars. An oil reserve backing, if you will. And, the "value" that the "future supply of "currency traded "oil" imparts to the world economy, is guaranteed by an "INTERBANK paper gold MARKET" that values "physical bullion" in the Thousands!
I'll let Another explain:
But, how can this be, you ask? It is done, "right before your eyes" and we see it not! I ask you, if you have one ounce of gold, and sell it on the market for $300, it is worth $300, yes? Now, what if CB hold one ounce of gold, and sell it twenty times, that one ounce is now worth $6,000, no? The difference between you and CB? The persons that hold "interbank" IOU for gold, value it at the multiple of leases/sales made against reserves. This leverage, it is held for performance on bank part. The BIS, it force performance, on any economy! You ask Korea about gold, yes?
This is why oil can take a small amount of physical gold out of world supply, at current "freely traded", "managed prices", and hold it at a many times valuation. That is what gives this "new world gold market" much value in trade at high levels. Look even at your "Comex", and divide the daily volume by the "eligible stocks for delivery". That number ( perhaps three million ounces divided by 150,000 stocks, deliverable, times the spot close gives close, real world price of physical, $6,000. It follows close to paper trade on LBMA.
You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time.
Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please.
Thank you
ALL:
The current "paper gold market" is not a physical gold trading arena, as many here have observed and discussed. Truly, in every sense, it is a "currency market" as contracts are settled in the prevailing "currency values" of gold. It is through this process, that gold is purchased "as a stated value in currency terms", not in physical terms. It is known, that a switch to trading of gold to "physical terms" of the same volume as today, would not only bring a huge revaluation in price, it would also destroy the market. The large dealers of today, could not raise the reserves needed to trade a physical market of many thousands an ounce! It is this "possible switch" to "physical trading" that would drastically devalue all currencies, including oil, that much worries the CBs.
The US$ is soon to become a " regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold " and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things.
This change will occur before 2000, as it is beginning now, where no one can see!
As Another would say, "we watch this new gold market, together, yes", Yes!
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:51
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD
"then the true inflation of the US dollar over the last 20 years, since the last oil shock, would be clearly revealed"?
Mr. GCH,
Today, digital currencies are not to hold value, but to use for trade only. I do wonder why many were so worried for price inflation, as it cannot destroy value of a currency that holds not worth as paper? The dollar of your youth is not the same item. This modern paper is but a "receipt in commerce"! If a person holds a "paper trade receipt" as a savings for life, how can wealth be gained? Look to many lesser countries with currencies of many zeros, this paper is still in use. Gold has gained much in these hands and the economy still continues.
Many look to the Dow Jones, and see large gains! But, I say, gains in terms of what? World paper currencies? These gains are not of real things, nor can they ever be totally traded for real things! And, these gains, they come with great risk, yes? For my children, I hold no risk with gold!
Look now, as the CB money makers do now change the rules of engagement! Many zeros will be added to the present "world reserve currency" in "big rush" as the great digital gains of these past few years become as "dreams on a desert night"!
Thank you
Mr. Donald_A,
I have seen your view often. In this present world, it is a correct thought! But, perceptions of "capital" and what represents "capital" do change. Today, you use paper as a real value, and this debt currency is used to denominate the "worth of your assets" for your future. It is to say, "my savings, they equal the debt of my currency"! On this foundation, your production of goods and services are built. I submit, that without change, this economy will bring "beggars" into your family! We will not find this fate, gold will become "new money" and this money will buy much, with confidence. Yes, It is a matter of time.
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:04
Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:
Questions: Do you have a belief about whether the euro will be attractive to oil producers as an oil currency? If the price of gold in dollars begins to rise and the dollar also strengthens against other currencies, as you suggest, will not this accurate the purchase of gold by holders of other currencies?
Mr. Carl,
The partial backing of the Euro with gold is a resent thing. It was to be only 5% with the understanding that most "European" oil buys would be settled in Euro. The oil alone would give the Euro "reserve status". Now the BIS has worked to bring a possible "80%" of all world buys settled in Euro if 15% to 30% gold is held. This will bring the end of US$ holdings to act as reserves! In this way, the dollar price of gold would go to "no end"! This would further allow the Euro to become "top gun" as the US would even be forced to buy Euros to buy oil!
Many other currencies would come off the dollar standard as gold rises in their terms.
Make no mistake, all this will bring much pressure to gold mine operators. Mr. Carl, if you hold mine stock, you will stand behind many others when time to sell!
In a dual, it is best to move two steps to right, before one does turn and fire, yes?
thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:14
ForkLift__A ( Another ) ID#34194:
Will Iran stand for Saudi Arabia? Would they stand against the superpowers as equals in armaments? Would Kuwait be sensitive to such an alignment?
Mr. ForkLift,
I did not think we would ever see this. In the end, it may be seen that the "gold Dinar" may one day be a common currency for all the Gulf region. To this end, all will stand together! We must watch this possible change, as it could be a challenge to understand.
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:1
Pete ( All, ANOTHER-Who is selling gold? ) ID#222231
Mr. Pete,
These money printers, they do much and fool noone. "Follow in the footsteps of giants", as they take in real gold. Do so and the future will show your wisdom from today!
thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:44
Silverbaron ( ANOTHER ) ID#288295:
ANOTHER:In the past you have spoken of BIS gold purchases; can you tell us how much gold is owned by the BIS? Thank you.
Mr. Silverbaron, I will address a full post to this question. In a day or so. It is very interesting, this "Bank of Banks", yes?
thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:07
Myrmidon ( @ ANOTHER on "REAL THINGS" ) ID#339212:
Copyright © 1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"My question to you is this: The large anticipated rise of gold will it not be relative to currencies? Even if gold is priced relative to oil, even the price of oil is equated to currencies"?
Mr. Myrmidon,
The present digital money undervalues all real things in terms of "gold real money". This process hides the "current debt" that by default, encumbers all assets denominated in "digital currency"! It is to say " your wealth isn't as great as your currency says it is"!
For persons who "settle up" and convert to real things and gold, they have:
"taken two steps to the right, before the opponent has turned" In a Dual it is cheating, but in "life and death", it is a "good move", yes?
Thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:18
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( HERR ANOTHER! ) ID#431263:
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"why gold mining operators who pay their miners in devalued local currencies and sell production in US dollars will be harmed when gold revalues currencies? Won't gold be king at that point?"
Mr. GCH,
I think the governments will change the rules, just before you decide to sell. It is the way of life, yes? Is it not the "human nature" to rob the bank with the most money?
Time will prove all things!
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:25
Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:
"How do you see a company like for example Barrick, which holds "gold in the ground" in several countries"? Will each country simply take their gold? If gold is to held for the public good in the future, how would oil be purchased by private companies?
Mr. Carl,
See my last reply for the GCH. I think Barrick is a large bank and will require many good robbers! These government treasuries, good minds they have, I have seen!
Gold for the public good will be in the form of "money in the hand". A Dinar and a Euro for oil? We will see?
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:31
LIBERTY__A ( Gold mining stocks and their golden path! ) ID#263379:
Copyright © 1998 LIBERTY__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. Another,
"How do you envision gold availability at this level?
"can you be specific. Is this plan a viable one, and what caveats to you envision?
Mr. Liberty_A,
Sir, the plan is good, the question is, "how good is your broker"? Noone can know how this world change will come about, in specifics. The gold market may lock at $400? Or $4,000! When the public perception does come to understand, many entities I know of will not be buying "at the market" as your broker will. These ones, they will be "above the market", "well above the market"! Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen shows $475? I myself, as a country will be "there"! You sir, will stand well behind most in line.
I tell my children, as you may tell yours:
"when a thousand hungry lions fight for one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with what's in their belly"
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:38
JTF ( Only US gold mines confiscated? )
Mr. JTF,
Please see my
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:36
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:03
chas ( Another re currency flood ) ID#342282:
Mr. Chas, I do not understand your question?
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:32
BillD ( @ANOTHER ) ID#261269:
When would you expect these events to start moving the price of gold upwards?
Mr. BillD,
When the Cbs lose control. $360? Perhaps?
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:48
Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen ( USA ) /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Appearantly the percentage will be revealed in early May along with the naming of the president of the ECB. Do you expect that this will be when this begins to change?
The EURO is not done yet, much political fighting yet. It may change again, after May!
What do you see as the sign or evidence that the first phase has commenced ( digital currency units being exchanged for real things ) ? Similarly what do you see as the sign or evidence that the second phase of dumping the US Dollar has commenced?
See my post to BillD.
"I wonder what avenue these people will take to secure physical property since most commodity contracts are really just more paper?
A problem for persons that do todays work, tomorrow!
Do you see the 4080 delivery notices for gold at the COMEX as a sign of this type of effort to take delivery of physical metal? Since there is only enough gold to accomodate 1475 contracts what will happen to the rest???
I think, good minds will find a way to work this problem out. We will watch!
Thank You, Mr. Allen
ALL, I could not finish from last post. Have time and will continue now for a short time.
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 01:42
chas ( Another, rephrase of question ) ID#342282:
In reference to large volume oil producers' sales for currency ( paper ) , do they have to use this currency to buy the gold they prefer, or is there another method or methods to acquire the gold? The main question is, if there is another method"?
Mr Chas,
Yes. Many say, ME producers have no extra money for gold. They are in debt and "just making it". I say, they have much money, just not "your perception of money"! Many producers do not pump at "all out rate", and worlds largest proven reserves are in ground. In "gold market world", oil is wealth, and oil is money! It is the "good trade" to use "oil in ground" as backing to buy much paper "commitment for gold"! Future "currency" price of oil in ground is much unsure, but gold has world CB backing to be of great value, always! CB say, "your oil at $15 to $25, this is good as long as flowing", and say also " your oil pumps shut off, what price gold to turn back on?"
You see, in real world, gold is money, oil is money. But paper currency, it is only a receipt for commerce.
Thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:20
mozel ( @JTF ) ID#153102:
A man who dueled as ANOTHER proposes would have had no honor. He would have been shot down like a dog by the seconds. Without trustworthy, honorable seconds to enforce the law of dueling, there is not a duel, just a fight and shooting on sight.
Mr. Mozel,
You do understand the world, as it is, not as you are told! You thoughts offer much.
In the Duel of Gold and Currencies, this time, no seconds will stand! I think, they Duel also. But, your perception of 'Honor" I agree with!
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 03:38
Drifter ( ANOTHER'S Thoughts ) ID#270447Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:18
OLD GOLD ( ) ID#238295:
There will be ample time for holders of gold bullion and gold shares to sell their holdings for huge profits. Drifter was right on target here. Let's worry about getting POG to $350 this year. We have a long way to go on the upside before confiscation and/or taxation becomes a realistic concern.
Mr. Drifter and Mr. Old Gold,
If you search the "thoughts" posts provided by Mr. Sharfin, many of your conclusions are addressed. Many do feel that if "the gold mines were safe in the past", "they will be safe in the future". I submit this persons thinking for your consideration:
"The Western public has always thought of gold as money. Even after the 70s and 80s, most private investors held a small side thought, that gold was still, somehow dollar money. It was only during the late 80s and 90s that people started to completely lose the connection of paper spending money and gold. Clearly, all evidence shows that prior to the 90s and particularly prior to the 50s, the push was to change the publics thinking away from gold money, to paper currency as money. In this political climate, gold mine investments were the correct move, as the business of gold was encouraged over the usage of gold as money! That is why the metal was called in and the mines were untouched.
However, today, the change will be counter to the prevailing public opinion, that gold "is not money". The world debt system and currency exchange, as we have know it will implode and leave little room for political maneuvering. The governments will revalue gold and "demand" that the public carry it and use it! It will be the source of all gold, the mines, that will be controlled! That's Controlled, with a capitol "C", not confiscated!"
Mr. Old Gold,
Sir, I do read your writings and consider your thoughts!
Thank You
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:31
mozel ( @ANOTHER ) ID#153102:
" Was Gold Leasing by CB's an accidental mistake or an intentional mistake do you think?"
Mr. Mozel,
This world of money, it is a fierce one! I ask all, does anyone know a money manager with money for loan at 2%? No? Does not even the bank of Canada sell gold outright and receive "high" interest on cash? Is a CB that sells/leases gold dumb? NEVER!
If they sell gold, a way is clear to "bring gold back" for the nation! Canada has local mines, Australia has local mines, Belgium has South African mines! If they lease gold, it is for a purpose to buy "something" for the new supply to the market! The interest on the loan is for public view, as a "free gold loan" is not acceptable!
It truly started with Barrick, in Canada in the 80s. It was a "thin market", but grew big in oil. I think "intentional mistake" that was, as is said, "trial balloon"?
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 15:17
aurophile ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS ) ) ID#256326:
Many, perhaps all, of the mines will end up being owned by the lenders who have also lent mine management's rope for their own hanging. Although it is a special case, the Pegasus story is instructive in this regard.
Mr. Aurophile,
I think, in the years to come, many lenders, as Bullion Banks, will find much rope in great supply, offered to them, not the mines! These banks, are in middle with no way to settle, as national governments buy mine production! It is today, treasuries only can print currency, so will it be tomorrow that only government buy and give citizens real money, gold!
I will be gone for a time! We talk again, yes?
Thank You
Mr. TYoung,
Will the German government "sell" gold to the new ECB, or will they "transfer" it? A large difference, Yes? I send a post for this, this day.
Thank You
Mr TYoung:
Please read and consider this thinking person, as many do read your thoughts!
One must take this thought into consideration when deciding weather to hold dollars or the Euro. "The United States Government does not hold any reserves against it's currency". Truly, this can only be the case of the world reserve money. Indeed, all other currencies have reserves of US$ to back them, yet only the dollar has nothing! Yes, the USA does hold many billions in foreign exchange, to use in the defense of maintaining exchange rates against the dollar. However, these holdings are not reserves.
When the US government does not take in enough taxes to meet expenses, it sells treasury debt to make up the difference. When no one bids for this debt at an "acceptable" interest rate, the Federal Reserve bank buys the debt, outright! It gives printed cash to Washington and then, "holds the new treasury debt ( bond ) as backing for the issued cash!
Everyone understands the implications of this. Or do they? In reality, when the US government needs money, it doesn't sell debt! It "TRANSFERS" the obligation of it's citizens to pay future real production ( taxes ) as a "backing" for it's newly printed currency! As this process has been going on for decades, it has built up a debt of "real production payments" that it's citizens can never pay. Further, as the world reserve, this currency is held thru proxy "by every single person on this planet" that uses paper to trade anything!
It is true, that in times past when a currency is inflated ( over printed ) to a point of only 10% real gold backing, the government could revalue gold 90% upward and the currency was 100% backed again! A terrible blow to the holders of this paper, but at least the money system survived! Today, the worlds currency, the US$, by default, would require a gold price of many, many thousands to back it without using it's citizens as collateral! The only problem with this is the US gold stock is so small, that even at $10,000/oz, a large deflation would be necessary to decrease the outstanding US currency to this gold backing level!
Now, consider the Euro. It will have much real gold backing from the beginning. Even at 10% to 30%, the Euro will be the equivalent of a 100% gold backed dollar, when the world comes off the dollar standard! The selling of old dollar reserves, alone will reprice gold in US$ terms of at least $6,000/oz! It's present interbank reserve value.
Read the BONN report again:
""BT 1 APR 1998 BONN
Buba seen transferring gold to new Euro central bank
THE Bundesbank, which must provide about one-third of reserves of the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) , may decide to transfer most of its share in gold, providing a windfall for the German budget, analysts said.
Such a move would raise public confidence by backing the new currency with gold, and would support gold prices by reassuring investors the Bundesbank won't sell excess reserves on the market, an analyst said.
In addition, the transfer would be recorded at market prices, whereas the gold is now valued at less than one-third its market value. That would mean a multibillion-mark paper gain the government could book against debt.
"It would be a neat move," said Alison Cottrell, economist at PaineWebber International in London. "There's the psychology factor of the ECB holding gold, the government would benefit from a revaluation and it should, at the very least, put a floor under the gold price."
The European Central Bank will go into operation on Jan 1, the same day the euro becomes the currency for an expected 11 nations. Germany, because it's the European Union's largest economy and most populous country, will have to provide about one-third of the 50 billion Ecus ( S$86.5 billion ) the new bank will need in its role to set monetary policy.
The Bundesbank, Europe's largest holder of gold, has around 95 million ounces, valued on its books at 13.7 billion marks ( S$11.9 billion ) . The market value is about 55 billion marks.
A Bundesbank spokesman wouldn't comment on what the central bank's plans are, saying that won't happen until the member states for monetary union are named and the members of the European Central Bank are appointed. -- Bloomberg""
Mr. Young,
The German CB will not be selling gold to the new ECB for dollars! This "TRANSFER" will be in terms of "German Mark reserve requirements" that will soon be the "German Euro currency reserves"! Soon, European oil purchases will be made in, partial gold backed Euro's that "in US dollar terms", will be the same as 100% gold backed currency! As Another would say: Gold and oil will never flow in the same direction!
Sir,
you think long and hard on this: in USA , this paper currency, it show not the true wealth of persons assets!
Another
Thank You
All:
The Swiss, not dumb! There will come a time when gold and Euro are as "the same". Not in price or value, but as used for "real money". The Swiss will sell, just not as you think "sell". In that time, gold will be "transferred" to other Cbs as money or real reserves.
Money is not what you afford, you earn it! In the near future, gold money will buy more than dollar money, much more! It is as to compare a one dollar bill to a hundred dollar bill, both money, just one buys more!
Many think the only way gold can rise in dollar terms is if USA prints to many! Truly, they have printed to many already. Gold will rise in dollar terms, many thousands even if treasury inflates currency no more. This rise in price will cost London much! You have seen the Bank of England report of gold that does not come home?
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:13
aurophile ( ANOTHER ) ID#256326:
The US does not "back" its currency with specific reserves as other nations do ( of necessity ) as a matter of policy, but it does have the reserves of gold and foreign currency. The German move, if it happens, is simply accounting legerdemain ( ledger-demain? ) , and is no more meaningful in reality than the Federal Reserve's monetizing of US debt.
Sir,
This "matter of policy", it is without reason? If US$ is reserve for all other currencies, how can other currencies be held as reserve for US$? When one ask question, "does chicken back egg, or egg back chicken ", a good reply comes as "matter of policy? Yes?
You state:
" In the modern system, gold is of far less usefulness to a currency's essential value than the political, legal, and military "currency" of its issuer."
Sir,
Fifty years of modern history do not show this to be true. Political, legal and military "currencies" do come and go with the "Seasons", but "gold currency" did keep promise for citizens of changing times!
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:27
Auric ( EMU Question ) ID#255151:
Ok, let's say the EMU is 10% Gold backed. How do you know that in a year or two the CB of Europe won't change the rules in midstream. What's to stop them, say in the year 2000, from deciding that the EMU will only be 5% Gold backed? How firm is this promise?
Sir,
When physical gold trades by side of EURO, the rules will hold even at three fourths stream!
thank you
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:53
PrivateInvestor ( Another thinks ) ID#225283:
Another please tell me what you think of the current situation in the world oil markets. Countries such as Mexico are seeing 50% of all government revenues dry up as the price of oil continues to go south...The same must be true of our gold holding friends in the middle east...What are your prognostications???
Sir,
We are close to "much change". The oil reserves of the middle east show a history of value delivered for currencies of "broken promises"! The supply of oil was never the problem, only the "market of oil" in "what kind of money" that caused much distrust. Today, many try to understand oil thru a currency that cannot offer a final payment of true value. I tell you, supply and demand mean nothing in this relm. The "fight", is to bring oil down in US$ terms, then convert to an "open" partial gold payment. With gold priced correctly, oil would be very cheap for western, non producers. But, the owners of "local reserves" as Mexico, would suffer as gold would not be allowed for payment to them. The Euro, it could be the result of this war.
If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?
Much is still as "up in air", we watch for a while.
I must be gone for a time.
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 09:41
jonesy ( @ ANOTHER re. Gold Wars ) ID#251166:
In your last post ( today 00:39 ) you say, "If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?"Question: Re. Gold War -- What specific actions and reactions do you envision? In other words, What possible scenario ( s ) , blow-by-blow, may we look for in a Gold War?
Mr. Jonesy,
This battle of wealth began long before our eyes were open. It was born as a conflict of the human spirit. Many teach the way of "honest dealings" and "earn your own way", then force their neighbor to accept a currency debt receipt, as payment for "real commerce goods". The world reserve currency is held by "default" not choice. Today. every digital money is a product of the US$ by nature of "it being the book keeping reserve". To this extent, the US$ is the only world currency! To this end, noone can see the true size of the "mismatch" in gold as money in US$. No country, Japan included, can sell dollar reserves without destroying their own currency! The BIS does not recognize other currencies as reserves, as they are, in themselves, a dollar product!
This "new gold war", it will be as "none before". The BIS will bring gold into the $320 to $360 range for the Euro. The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$. At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. In this light, one can see why many large buyers have been taking in gold, as it is held in terms of value of "after the war". Not the traded price of today.
Sir;
Your life passes, thoughts change and a persons perception of value does mature. The world, today does also mature! You will find a new financial future, in a value from the past. The world will embrace gold as "a better inheritance for our children" for it has now become a "lifetime holding". It is "the human nature" to be social, and many will not see this "new future" until it "has use from others".
"it is the way of people, some are part of the future, as they become the history of the past"
Thank You
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 12:17
Haggis__A ( ANOTHER......... ) ID#398105:
This precise reason why the EURO has to be backed by GOLD. The boys on Wall Street and the USA will HAVE to fight this one. However, the key is for the Japanese and the Chinese currencies to be backed by GOLD. The Chinese may well be on their way, the Japanese a concern as they have as of July 97 0.5% of the Bank of Japan resources held in physical gold.
Mr. Haggis,
I think, China was buying a great deal of gold and gold commitments ( paper gold ) thru a HK trader. They became much of the "not enough physical gold " problem for the oil/gold trade. China dumped much of this paper and continued to take in gold even today. Japan is a story of "no happy ending" as they are seen as "not aligned with Europe" or the BIS way of things. The EURO may send Japan down with the USA dollar! Asia will be lead by China, as they do understand a "Euro world". The ECB does know that "all holes in earth, lead to china"!
Thank You
Mr. RJ,
As RJ, you are known here as a company, not a person! Were you a private citizen, your thoughts find backing from your name only! However, our words as known to all as the "ways of ones employer"! It is the way of the business world, yes? As a broker, you have chosen to represent a company on this forum. Does this company chose these words, and stand it's reputation "behind such"? In my world, no businesses would allow such public representation, as future and present clients would demand better control of thoughts. Indeed, send your writings to the owner of your desk, and ask, "what price do we demand for this advertising to the entire earth"?
Thank you
ALL:
I see the USAGOLD company has found the EURO important! One does ask, what will this currency look like? It is very clear, yes? See my Date: "Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:", and look to the BONN report! There the Germany does offer one answer. If they do "transfer" their reserves portion in gold, and Germany does make up one third of the reserves, then the Euro will have 30%+ gold backing by nature of Germany alone!
Also, Italy has shown the market of gold will be brought to $360 by nature of it's marking to this level. They state this publicly! They also ask for 30%+, publicly!
Also, the Bank of England does prepare it's public for this new gold market! A market that will deny the repayment of gold loaned, at US$ prices that will keep Bullion Banks alive! The Euro will be strong, indeed!
Also, the UBS does ask, "what will the Cbs do with all the left over gold"? I ask, "what will the Germans do with all the left over US$"? Truly, with the Euro about to win the price of oil, gold will grow large in the dollar!
As the BO England gold does not come home, the US$ reserves must "COME HOME"!
Thank You
As soon as able, I will write of the BIS.
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ALL:
Much is in progress now, and I must be away for a time. Will not post on April 04. Will write from another country if time will allow. There will be much thinking with gold, very soon. We will talk another time, yes?
Thank you