Mr. Kosares,
I wish to thank you for your effort in providing this forum. In this format, we explore this new gold market from another view. Perhaps, many will find they have considered "these changes" before they occur. Mr. Johan Campher had asked for improved "abbreviations and acronyms". Starting today, I hope to speak more clearly.
Thank You
Reply:
From George Cole:
ANOTHER: On Kitco some time ago you said that the BIS was seeking to nudge the gold price back into a $320-360 trading range. If this is so, why has the price fallen back to $300 after briefly touching $315?
Mr. Cole,
This question, it is important as many did not grasp the impact of the last Belgium gold sale. In the past many of my "Thoughts" were offered for open discussion and debate. When I posted that "a large purchase was in progress" and "we should see this in several days", the intent was to focus persons on the public announcement, soon to be released. I also offered that we would see $320 - $360. I add to this, for your question.
Many, not all, Central Banks offered gold loans in support of the expanding paper gold market. This major new trading market could not exist without some "addition" of existing gold, placed on the market from time to time. This addition of forward sales to the "existing physical gold market" expanded the "gold trading arena" .
Because the Central Bank loans and sales offered "credibility" to any outstanding "short gold paper", a large derivatives market was built around this "gold trading arena". The CBs, along with the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), wanted gold to fall into the low to mid $300 range as this made the dollar (US$) strong in gold. It also made much of the "old" gold paper "good for delivery" as the Bullion Banks could supply the physical by purchasing on the "outside market" at lower prices! Had many of the early paper buyers (year or so ago) called for delivery, there be no supply as the physical market was spoken for. A falling dollar gold price made good on past paper deals as existing private supply was made free. In this light, I think few do truly understand how much trading in done in the world "gold trading arena" by LBMA! To understand this, is to know, "the CBs could never supply it! To think that gold is not wanted or not traded or "is a dead asset", it does become the foolish thought, yes?
I think, over time, the gold derivatives market did "break" the control of the BIS. Gold is held by many world class entities, as a capital asset. These "Giants" did understand the purpose for $350 gold. In this range, the gold mining industry and many capital reserve gold assets would survive. Gold below $300 was not wanted, as even the BIS would be forced to move with the price much below $280. The last small gold war ended in the early 1980s, as the choice was to use the US$ or go to a gold based economy. No other reserve currency existed, and gold lost the war as all continued to buy dollar reserves.
Today, a new currency is formed. It offers a way to break the dollar valuation of gold without the total destruction of worldwide currency markets and economies. In time, oil producers can offer their low cost reserves at true valuations, that support industry and commerce in exchange for a revaluing of real money, gold, in a real currency, Euros!
The Belgium government did state " The National Bank does not intend to sell any further gold and this sale completes its programme of gold sales which started in 1989". Mr. Cole, in this statement you may read, that the "paper gold" of "the modern gold trading arena" will no longer be supported with "Euro Group Supply"! They did also state "After the start of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in January 1999 Belgium will hold close to 300 tonnes of gold which is expected to be equivalent to around one third of its external reserves"! Sir, you may also read this as, once the Euro is formed, all "new" sales of "external reserve gold" will be done in: EUROs! They will have little use to sell gold for US$ reserves as they will have "much of that currency" already.
As events progress, all/most "external gold reserves" of the "Euro Group Countries" will move towards the ECB and be settled in Euros. As gold will always be traded and denominated in the world currency that settles oil sales. Even Swiss gold will be sold to European Central Bank (ECB) for Euros for defense against the falling dollar. Yes, most dollar derivatives will fail as "worldwide gold trading in US$" stops from "contract default"! Will the dollar be weak in gold? Indeed, it may not exist as a market for gold!
The Belgium CB does also state "gold will continue to play a role in the international financial system"! Some say these CBs are fools because they lower the value of their own reserve asset. This is done as a new world reserve oil currency is produced. Perhaps the perception of value is an ever changing, fools game? And to this I ask, what kind of fools are we?
Yes, the Central Banks now look for $360. But in time, "that too will pass as swift clouds on a moon less night"
Thank You
ANOTHER
REPLIES:
From Lyle: Another, Much is beginning to be seen about the effects of hedging on the spot price of gold - to be more specific, that companies like ABX (Peter Munk) have destroyed the market. To be enabled to create a successful hedging program the cooperation to the holders of gold (CB's)must be necessary. Two questions
1) Is collusion possible (actual?).
2) Will non-hedged companies like NEM ultimately be gratified by their refusal to participate?
ANOTHER: Sir, To understand this process, one must see the mining companies for what they "do", not what they "are". These companies are in business not to make "gold", but to make "profits" in terms of currencies! As such, when currencies fail, the business and the profits do become destroyed, in shareholder terms. The modern "hedge" is a very much "all paper" operation. The mine does never see or touch the actual gold that is involved, nor can they know if physical gold was "actually sold". Find me the names of new physical gold buyers and show me here! I think you will look long and hard for this, without success, as much of this gold does lie "very still". After long search, what you may find will be a "paper deed" to gold, that is many times over "encumbered" from much use and travels through foreign hands!
Is collusion possible (actual?) In much of the world, what you call collusion, is "good business". However, on the producer side, this "good business" is to produce profit. On the lender side, the purpose is for changing currency valuations.
Will non-hedged companies like NEM ultimately be gratified by their refusal to participate? This question, you ask it with the mind of the past "physical gold market". Many investors buy "gold paper investments" today with the thought of the past as to be like the future. The conclusion of many years of gold manipulation will not offer the currency gains one seeks. Today, the entire "gold trading arena" requires a physical market and a much larger paper derivatives market for operation. If a mine sells only physical for currency profit, they will be hurt as the "physical settlement for US$s" market is destroyed! If they are hedged for currency profit, they will be hurt as the "derivatives settlement for US$s" market is destroyed. I think, perhaps, only physical coin and bullion dealers, that can convert to settle in Euros will still find a trading market. Please understand, this "gold trading arena", both physical and paper, will be subject to "GREAT" surges, up and down, in US$ pricing. The removal of the political "world dollar settlement" price of gold will revalue this asset in terms that noone of "western thinking" can understand. This "gold war" will leave a great landscape of burned and destroyed "gold companies" along with the investors who "stood for battle without real metal" as a shield!
Thank You
From PH in LA: Dear ANOTHER and Friend of ANOTHER, In Friend of ANOTHER's most recent post it was stated, "if everyone try's (sic) to spend their overseas dollars (presently Eurodollars), the US will no doubt invoke foreign exchange controls and most likely create a new currency." Can you clarify this? What do you mean by "everyone trying to spend their overseas dollars"? By buying gold? Also, what form would "currency controls" be likely to take? I assume that limits on dollars wishing to return to the United States would be set. Would limits be likely for US citizens? Would limits take the form of heavy taxation? Or would the "new currency to be created" take the form of distinguishing between domestic dollars circulated within the US and the eurodollars presently held as reserves by CBs?
In today's (June 4) post ANOTHER says that the market for gold in dollars might cease to exist. Does that mean that dollars would have to be traded for Euros before gold could be bought? Or conversely, would selling gold mean exchanging Euros for dollars after the sale? Or is he alluding to US government confiscation of gold (and silver?)? Or is this where currency controls would take effect? Restrictions (taxes) on dollars returning to the US from sale of Euros. Surely there will exist a market on which Euros can be exchanged for dollars for use in international trade, etc.?
Sincerely, PH in LA
ANOTHER: Sir, You ask, What do you mean by "everyone trying to spend their overseas dollars"? It is a very large question, yes? A simple answer would be: What else can a person of small wealth do with a currency but "spend it"! Outside your country, small persons, large traders and Central Banks hold the dollar, not for spending, but for the "reserves" and "store of value". It is held in much more quantity than exists inside your borders. Many of these persons think and know, that in last resort, the dollar, it can buy "oil" or "Gold" anywhere in world. In the real world, this is the "real backing" behind the dollar held in many lands! Today, the same "system" that makes this dollar "strong in gold and oil" does destroy the native currencies of many peoples! You may list for me, as perhaps the Canada, Mexico, Japan, Africas, all of Asia, come to mind! I ask you now, what gain these countries to maintain a "system" of "currency reserves", that breaks the local savings and economies? In a world that finds many nations "hungry" for a "reserve currency system" that correctly values "gold and oil" for the benifit of "local currencies", this Euro will change many thoughts.
In time, as the dollar does lose it's backing of oil and gold, thru a much higher price of these items, many "foreign dollars" will find "no other worth" but for "the spending of them for goods". The US economy cannot stand for these many digital units to "come home", as much will be the inflation should this result! I think, in this time, the great minds of your treasury will find many ways to "change the rules"! PH in LA, you have offered "some food for the thought" and "consideration" for them in your post. We watch this as it does progress, yes?
You ask, "Surely there will exist a market on which Euros can be exchanged for dollars for use in international trade, etc."? I find, the politics of gold will mature much differently than many feel. The transition from dollar reserve currency will bring a tremendous economic change for the country that issues this currency and it's world debt. In that time, the government will "encourage" citizens to hold an asset for personal "well-being" and "support", Gold! As the alternative will be the Euro, and this will be frowned upon. The gold will be seen as "American" and "walk tall with American Gold" and "carry your own weight, carry gold for the future of yourself and country"!
Remember, gold has a history many times your nations age. The last twenty years of transition do not represent the future of this world class money. I agree with what may be a common thought for local political gain, "follow in the footsteps of giants, and carry your future in both hands, carry gold"!
Thank you
From CMAX: ANOTHER, How pleasing to see you here. If I may ask again, there has been one question left unaddressed that I had posed to you many months ago..... that of your thoughts regarding the future % increase in the U.S. paper value of SILVER, as compared to gold. I appreciate your implication about WB having to maintain a certain face in a public company (thus obligating him to purchase silver), but maybe he decided that it may do better than gold? To my mind, it seems that gold and silver should rise TOGETHER and proportionally, no?
Thanking you in advance.
Cmax
ANOTHER: Sir, We meet again! I think, many buy the Silver (and platinum) for but one reason, it will increase always more percent than gold. It is always the thought of more leverage, yes? Even today, these metals have more use for the industry and find a better "concept of economic purpose" in the minds of investors. Many dealers say, this purpose is of better "investment reason" and as an aside, you also hold metal, like gold? I say, gold has "no investment reason" as it is "real money" that draws no interestfrom being "lent out". For this purpose, it is an asset that shows "the conclusion wealth" from our long life of investing in commerce! Given the option of investing for "economic purpose", there are and have been, many better items than silver (Dow Jones?). In future currency wars, silver will show a return, but it may prove as uncertain as the economy?
Remember, you buy "silver for purpose" but "trade currency for gold for conclusion". As the long history of gold does show, "time will prove all things".
Thank You
From Sam: BARON in May 6, 1998 article (HOT MONEY DOES NOT STAY IDLE LONG) on Gold-Eagle web site poses question of what happens to EMU currencies when Euro takes over. He strongly suggests 240 Billion of supplanted currencies will end up at the LBMA where 12 Billion in paper gold is traded daily. The arithmetic works out to an explosion in the gold price of US$300/oz (present day) to US$6000/oz if this 240 Billion in "hot money" finds its way to the LBMA. US$6000/oz is your figure for the present interbank value for gold. Is the RED BARON on to something ?
Please comment !
Also, For whatever percent backing by gold, will the Euro be convertible to physical gold, and by whom (i.e. all or limited) ?
Sam
ANOTHER: Sir, The history of "Hot" paper money does show it to "burn easily" from " much heat"! If you read my Thoughts in today's replies, we see much "fuel" in dollar derivatives trading in foreign markets. Much of this trading represents a "claim" on physical gold that may become "a transaction for physical gold" as dollar reserves are displaced. The $6,000 valuation of gold can only be true if currency deflation destroys enough dollars to bring it down to that range. Without deflation, the dollar will be devalued much lower than this (higher gold price)! Once the Euro is created and begins to effect world trade (late 1999 perhaps), the gold market will begin a transition as never before! I think it will be interesting to follow the politics of this change, yes?
Your question of Euro gold backing? The Euro will not be backed or fixed in gold. It will, as Michael Kosares (USAGOLD) notes, be the first "modern currency" to hold true "exchange reserves" in gold. It is important to understand that "exchange reserves" of gold are much more powerful a tool for currency defense than gold backing! In this system, gold must be traded in a "public physical market", in that currency, Euros! As such, the Euro can "devalue gold" (Euro price of gold falls) thereby making it strong in gold! In today's world, this will happen as a "strong Euro physical market" displaces and defaults " the old dollar settlement paper gold market"! The dollar will become"weak in gold"!
Thank You
Michael,
Another believes the BIS has actually entered the gold physical market. It was purchased through a Euro bank, not UBS and is continuing. It is not for the account of any country, but for BIS capital. They may announce this outright through the news services before he can write next week? My understanding is it was not for Japan! They were used as a diversion. For what purpose, I do not know? It could be they see the banks in Japan are about to fall under the capitol ratio rules as their market and economy takes a hit? The BIS may need the gold to cover any unpaid GF (gold Franc) reserve capitol due from BOJ? This is most likely the reason. Besides, during a crisis, it will be to late to patch up reserve ratios. If Asia falls before the Euro is in effect, Jan 1, it will take oil down with it in currency terms, along with an ensuing major reallocation of assets into gold.
This could get very intriguing!
FOA
Mr. Murphy,
I read at USAGold the "Frank Veneroso's Gold Commentary & Central Bank Watch" with much interest. It is good to see this market thru the eyes of others.
Mr. Kosares,
Your post of (6/23/98 Daily Market Report), it speaks of a market not of the past. I agree. Many persons in this industry try to analysis price movements using "supply and demand" of gold. This information is of public knowledge and shown to all. What cannot be seen is the "currency of gold" in the form of "derivative positions "market. The "supply and demand" in this trade, it is much different, yes? Many of these "positions" find not a beginning in the mine industry, but they do make the physical dollar price of the metal "much different"! The trading of this new currency as a form of "dollar/gold" cross was born in the Euro Central Banks. It was offered as a means to escape the "political" dollar valuations of major commodities. Oil?
The Central Banks make much news of their good use of gold thru lending and leasing. They often add an "also" to this thought in the form of "and this process adds liquidity to the market"! Many accept these statements as "for the mining industry", as it creates a good market for mining forward loans. I say, even the mine loans are part of the "adding of liquidity", as the "currency of gold" market is many times the "gold mined and sold as a commodity" market!
Some wish to see the "inside" of this "currency of gold" trading? It was somewhat shown to many with the LBMA trading volume. This volume has "no explanation" from any analysis? The "supply and demand", it does not work as "good reason" for this trading, yes? Soon, the true nature and use of this new gold market will be in "good view" with "good reason" for all to see. Even today, the Euro Group Central banks, thru the BIS are trading gold in Euros! I think Mr. Fava offers only the beginning of the fire that comes to London: ( a small part of this article)
"LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) London Bullion Marketing Association (LBMA) chairman Peter Fava earlier said in an interview with Reuters Television that he expected gold to reach $320 an ounce by the end of the year. Fava said this would be due to central banks becoming net buyers of gold."
Yes, the Euro already exists in the form of the currencies that are now part of the ECB. These currencies change little between themselves as Jan 1, 1999 approaches. This withdraw of "dollar liquidity" from the"currency of gold market" will begin to effect the dollar price of gold. It will be the "currency of gold" "derivative positions " that will be forced to convert to Euro positions, first! The existence of "exchange reserves" of gold in the ECB does increase the Euro currency value in dollar terms as the dollar falls against the "currency of gold derivative positions ". To hedge these positions, physical gold and Euros must be purchased. Today, the BIS does do both for ECB customers. No longer does the dollar price of gold fall for the benefit of oil, as the Euro has been chosen for oil settlement in future. The dollar price of oil will now move for a different story: "oil was priced to low in dollars and to high in ounces of gold"! I think, the price of gasoline will be a "good deal" in Europe soon.
We will now see China walk the trail to Berlin as the Japan does rush for the American dollar! Indeed, the Yen will seek much more US debt as they are , locked out! The Mr. Alan Greenspan will attend a board meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Tokyo next month. I think the markets will see "much change" of spirit after this meeting. It will be the end of the past and the start of the future for trading gold! We watch this new market together, yes?
6/24/98 Replies
From James Turk, Freemarket Gold & Money Newsletter: How did you come by the handle "ANOTHER"?
ANOTHER: Sir, It was found far in the past. The true value of gold was often taken from view, with purpose. Today, paper debt currency does price gold as little and value all other assets as much. History has proven that " your assets never offer a return as great as your paper money say it does". As such, in time real money does always bring a true gain. Many will find our wealth of the future has been with them always, in Another form, Gold!
Thank You
From Dr. Woods, MD:
The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theftwere thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.
-----NostradamusThis reminds me of the future predicted by "Another". Are the paper gold contacts issued without adequate physical gold backing by the London Bullion Exchange in "ANOTHER"'s postings and the wipeout of U.S. dollar denominated Treasury bonds actually predictions of Nostradamus in 1530.
ANOTHER: Sir, I see this conclusion does come thru history as " unchanged". It has always been in the minds of men to make gains at the expense of others. The past has shown that honest money must be taken from a person using force, today, our assets are removed as we sleep! I believe Mr. Kosares used this Notradamus quote in his book ABCs of gold, to make a betterpoint. We watch the outcome together, yes?
Thank You
From Zama: "Another" , thank you for your insight; I pretty well agree with most of what you say;ie. physical gold, but what of such a country as Norway: is their fiat money so undesirable? As the second largest exporter of "black gold" they look pretty good to me, and they might have an initial advantage in staying out of the EMU for the time being. What are your thoughts?
ANOTHER: Zama, I think Norway is a fine country and strong people, but do they not also use the US$ as a reserve currency? In the future, if they sell "black gold" for "real gold" or the Euro, all will be well, except their banking system will fail from dollar holdings! They be not dumb, and will reach for the true values as will all others. To add to your words I offer: They may experience the: initial "Disadvantage" in staying out of the EMU for the time being, but time does change many thoughts!
Thank You
Another
Mr. Michael Kosares,
These Thoughts for all!
The winds blow well on this cloudless night. All are asleep with the dreams of what tomorrow may bring. I have help to print these words for the future. Indeed, this be a "conversation of our Thoughts" for this quiet time of life. Yes, this is a fine evening to consider gold!
For many, the years have passed and this noble metal has not revealed the value it hides. Ones of western thought have held long and strong, with great demands that it should obtain a high price in American currency terms. Yet, in some two decades of time it was the dollar and paper investments that bring forth their hidden strengths. For you, this history has proven gold is without value in these modern world economies! I say, this thought is but a passing argument, as it is not "what we sell gold for, but rather how much gold can one buy" that produces wealth over time!
The last gold war of 1980 ended as the choice was between "gold as a currency" and the US dollar. The dollar was accepted as the world reserve and trading currency. Many did not believe this reserve would hold in the test of time. It was "expected" that from twenty years in the past, any inflation of dollar debt would send all persons in a run to gold. This be the "flaw" in thinking of many analysis and investors. For it was in this time that all the governments of the world began to "play a currency game". Yes, a contest for many, even most, but not all! This game was offered to the rich, the working and the poor. It was even for the wealthy to play as they watch to see who will remain the longest. But history has shown that as the sun sets in the east, so must also conclude games of men, these "games of chance".
Most citizens of this world have placed their life's efforts on one bet at the tables of Monte Carlo. Some wager for far into the future, but none will succeed. They bet, as you say, "the farm", even the full estate of the family on the only one outcome: " that paper currencies will continue to denominate the full value of their assets" and "continue to do so in a way that reflects the current relationship of paper assets against real things"!
Why must these private fortunes be lost to the "House of Carlo"? Why did they not run to gold in the long years that pass, as analysis believed? Why the "flaw" in thinking? I say, because the "game of currencies has not ended" and has produced "asset valuations" that would not exist if converted into real things. As such, the wealth of nations, that many believe they hold does not exist today, in dollar terms, nor will it exist tomorrow!
How long do persons continue to make these paper claims to "bonds", "stocks" and "currencies" that are produced in numbers as the leaves on the trees? These seasons of spring and summer of twenty years time, have offered a harvest to gather wealth that lasts for centuries. When the economy of the dollar, becomes as your "Autumn" and arrives suddenly, they will pause from this foolishness. In that time, the savings for the future of their children will be as these dried "leaves"of winter, blowing in the wind!
The wealth of gold, it does not change. It is hidden from view for the purpose of changing reserve currencies. The dollar has consumed the wealth of all who hold assets in these terms. The American debt is evidence of this consumption. The expansion of this debt now destroys the economies of countries that use the dollar as a reserve. The Euro will be forced to become a successful, hard reserve currency or "gold as a currency" will be backed by oil and take it's place! China and Arabia can force this outcome, as the Euro group will trade with China as the Japan has with America. China will devalue in time and break the American/Pacific economy as oil finds a "good price for commerce" in Euros. This is done as "intervention" into the oil markets, in dollar terms forces the oil price up! In this time the entire Euro Group /China / Middle Eastern economy will heat up to form the greatest demand for oil. All producers will rush to sell oil for Euros and dump dollars.
Gold will rise in dollar terms to values little understood to analysis of "supply and demand". As they know the commodity purpose for gold, little is thought of the "currency/wealth" purpose for gold. As "supply and demand" did not explain the dollar drop of gold for the past twenty years, it will not explain the dollar rise for the next decade! Soon, gold will rise "with the dollar", then the maker of your money will force this currency down in a effort to stop it from coming home.
Many do speak of supply and demand for reason of gold decline because of "extra leftover gold" held in ECB, however, they do not consider the "extra leftover currency reserves"? The Euro will hold forty to fifty billion in total exchange reserves, of that perhaps 15% in gold. This does leave perhaps forty billion in currency reserves to be held. The eleven Euro group countries now hold much more than forty billion in exchange currency. Do they sell these dollars at same time they sell leftover gold for dollars? I think all should talk to these new analysis about the "supply and demand" for dollars, not gold.
To close I offer the thought of a banker : "I would not sell gold for dollars when, as a district Central Banker, I could soon use it to purchase more Euros from the ECB. As all new local continent debt will now be issued in Euros, it is better to allow the new future Dollar / Euro exchange rate to pay old dollar debt. Yes, the coming American dollar inflation will make "good work" of this European debt problem, perceived by many to be "insurmountable! Even now as I ponder this thought, we may not even sell gold for Euros, as it is a true "exchange reserve" of our ECB! As oil will be priced in Euros, and a low dollar price of gold no longer necessary, perhaps, with it's future dollar value" increasing, I will purchase more gold with dollars for future payment of debt?"
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
Another
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not endorse, assert or stand behind the accuracy or reliability of opinions, advice or statements made by any of the participants of this forum. These postings do not purport to give legal, accounting or investment advice. For that the services of a competent professional aware of your specific situation must be sought. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals disclaims any personal liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any advice or information presented herein.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved
Michael: The article was from a conference that was just completed. You may contact the institute or visit their web page: http://www.aei.org/
This item came from the web site:
Also:
I have a person in Washington that could find out more about this. However, I think this excerpt (I sent you) is open knowledge. It just has a nice connection to European thinking in regards to the new currency. The Middle Eastern bullion holdings are well hidden from official records. They control the gold market through the London/European gold paper markets. It was the BIS that handed them the market when it created the Central Bank lending deals. They were the prime buyers right off the bat! I didn't understand until about a year ago, how they were gaining control without cash. The answer is they don't buy the paper gold with cash! The Bullion Banks take oil reserves as collateral for it. The money that ends up in the account for a typical mining company forward deal is really a loan against oil in the ground. That's why the CBs lend the gold so cheap, it's not for the mines, it's for the producers! Now you know how we buy cheap oil prices. The world thinks the CBs are doing this for a 1% return. Truth is, the mining industry is going to pay full interest in the end. It's one hell of a complicated affair, with the politics and all. Needless to say, as the events open up and expose some of this, the public is going to be very interested. As for the SNB selling half of their gold. If they do, it will be for Euros, you can bet on it!
Thanks
Friend of ANOTHER (FOA)