Foundational Gold Trail Commentary

The Inside Story on the Gold-for-Oil Deal that could Rock the World's Financial Centers

(Thu Sep 03 1998)

Replies (9/3/98):

From Stockdoc: Dear Mr. Kosares/ANOTHER, I am a stockbroker in Tacoma, Washington, and have been an avid follower of gold (my uncle started Strategic Investments, now Lexington Gold Funds, many years ago - so I come by my 'hard money' stance naturally). I have bought many gold equities for my clients over the years because I believed it was the conservative and prudent thing to do with a portion of their portfolios; only to have them gravely disappointed, and leaving me heartbroken. I am also finding myself feeling quite silly as I have watched the greatest bull market in history march on while my own portfolio is littered with money losing gold stocks.

My question, sirs, will gold stocks ever come to life, please? I read your website daily and look forward with great interest to your erudite updates. I wonder if by "paper" gold assets, you mean that gold stocks will not take part in the coming gold bull market. Any comment regarding gold stocks in general and specific mining companies in specific would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

ANOTHER: Mr. Stockdoc, I think, many looked in history of "performance" by gold stocks and reached for "events" that would happen again. However, the future of investing in "most paper gold assets" is not made with a short past that begins from only 1975! Perhaps, when persons add today's "performance" of gold stocks, they will view the future as: " truly, gold in the ground, this is a business, not the currency asset". If gold does rise slowly, these stocks will show a gain for a time.

However, never before in history has gold been cornered in currency terms. Not physical terms. Never before in history, has a world reserve currency, the dollar, been forced from a high gold valuation to a low gold valuation, along with a destruction of world gold market. Because gold is traded today, worldwide in dollar terms, the transition will destroy the capital assets of 99% of all mines. Please place yourself in " context of future events". Physical gold will not reach $30,000/oz because noone is buying it! It will come to this level because the dollar, today, is already inflated to level that will bring this price. The perception that this dollar is "no longer a good reserve", it will bring the flood of buying. This "already printed and in circulationtoday" currency will seek gold!

Governments will tax mines for the right to produce money and force them to sell production in terms of "whatever the new world reserve currency" is at that time. Euro? Because gold mines are the "unique" circumstance in world of investments, their owners will suffer a "unique" problem of definingwhat they really own!

Also, remember, gold will rise soon as world trading continues this course of change. However, at some point, when the dollar market is destroyed, noone will know the currency value of gold thru an official market. Paper gold will not do well as the currency world is at war! The true surge of gold in dollar terms will not show until perhaps a year has gone by. During this time of trouble, physical gold will prove to be "the investment and holding for a lifetime".

Thank You


From David: Friend of Another. Your thoughts that the Euro price for gold could be set at perhaps $6000. As the US is the largest holder of gold reserves, wouldn't even the suggestion of them selling gold keep a lid on the gold price.

ANOTHER: Mr. David, Again, please place yourself in this time of change. Perhaps many banks have failed and most governments may seem as "Russia today". In this time, the US will not sell it's official gold for such a low price.

"a young man cannot see the future thru the illusion of day, always in the night of life we find the clear path"

Thank You


From Gandalf the White: Hail MK, I certainly agreed with your AM post and was happy to see things going in the correct direction, UNTIL a few minutes ago when the NY Shorts removed about $2 from the Au Spot price ! Now a Question to you. Reading ANOTHER's latest message, (FIRST let me thank you again for making a sounding board for HE and Friend!) Does he no think that ONLY the "bullion type" gold will retain the realvalue ?

This would, I hope, include coins and other physical type items, BUT NOT mining company stocks and paper items such as XAU calls and options.

What are your thoughts on that concept.

ANOTHER: Gw, I would say, all forms of physical gold is good to own. Even the rare ones offer the "art form", yes? Even in war, the art work is looted first, then the jewels, and always food. I prepare for not the war of men, but the war of currencies! This conflict will bring forth a new concept for many: "western governments will encourage people to hold physical gold "! When the Euro has defeated the Dollar, citizens will be asked to use gold as a savings, for holding the Euro will be frowned on. Gold will not bring your "capital gains tax" as the mines will be taxed to compensate.

Yes, rare gold will be good, but not as liquid as "bullion type" gold.

Thank You


From Steve: On 8/10/98 Friend of Another commented that hyper inflation "will destroy virtually all gold based paper assets," and that "the contract system they deal with will not be functioning during this time." Could you help me understand the breakdown of the contract system on a global basis and why those companies with cash reserves will not be able to whether the initial economic system collapse and do you literally mean "zero" stock value for all gold stocks.

Do you foresee any interim period between now and hyper inflation where gold will go up enough to suggest that those holding gold paper assets will be able to sell at a higher value than the doldrums it presently holds?

Thank you for your insight.

ANOTHER: Mr. Steve, If you read my letters for today, I think this question is answered. Also, this new gold market is "ongoing" and "changing". The potential exists for the return of gold as the "only" reserve currency. This may result from a failure of the Euro, due to a massive upheaval. Oil states, they have the ability to force this outcome. During this result, all paper will burn and the world economy will start over. However, the BIS is buying gold for customer governments as they begin to lower the dollar. This action, began some months ago will bring gold up, perhaps to the middle $360 range. If the world paper markets do not destroy themselves, gold stocks may rise for a time. But, physical gold is the good hold for this time.

Thank You


From Johnson: Another, your comments are fascinating!I am a small investor who was lead to gold by way of the Y2K computer and embedded chips/ infrastructure global crisis. How do you think that figures in to your projections? Also, how can a small investor take advantage of this knowledge? Gold calls? Gold coins? If the US is heading for this apparent disaster gold will be confiscated as it was during the depression. How aboutmining stocks? I understand they have sold future production in order to stay open!

These are interesting but troubling times.

ANOTHER: Mr. Johnson, I add only this: Many savers consider "no need for the gold". As spoken to Mr. Kosares, I think these investors of "young eyes" do not know the value of this insurance. Please add the amount you pay for the "Western insurance" of all personal things. The Automobile, House, Health, Life and Other. What is the "return on this investment"? It cannot be known until time to collect, yes? Perhaps, a fortunate person will find "never a return".

The physical gold, this money insurance, it will be collected in future. In that time, the return will be easy to see.

Thank You


From Rod: Dear FOA (and/or Mr. Kosares), Upon reading your letter of 8/10/98 to Mr. Kosares, I have the following question. Is it not probable that, in the interest of preventing an administrative nightmare (not to mention the equivalent of another "drug business" in "black market" physical gold), the "powers-that-be" will create two forms of physical gold? One would be "street" gold (coins, jewelry, industrial products, natural resource reserves, etc.) valued approximately at current rates, the other would be "Central Bank" gold valued at some (high-"dollar") "reserve" exchange rate. The latter form of gold would NEVER leave the CB vaults in ANY WAY other than as "guaranteed genuine" paper certificates "directly representing" the physical metal).

The process of "reserve currency" conversion could happen "overnight" by deciding upon how much gold to take out of circulation and "pegging" the "exchange value" of all existing currencies at the same "point in time" (probably to the US dollar). Each currency would be "assigned" their relevant "share" of the CB gold "pool" at this time based on the current "value/amount" of that currency in "circulation". The process for a country to "add" to the "CB reserves" after the initial "creation" would need to be based on some "quantifiable" measure of the "true" increase in the "wealth" of the contributing nation (relative to the whole world?). Subsequent to this "point" all national currencies would "float" against the "CB gold-certificate reserve currency" based on the country's "economic health" [deja vu - shades of the "old" gold standard?].

The removal of the "CB" gold from circulation might cause a short-term spike in the price of "street" gold. However, "supply and demand" would soon find a true price for "street" gold. The current infra-structure for precious metals trading would not need to change since it could still be applied to the supply/demand for "street" gold.

Thank you for any commentary/enlightenment.

Rod Steel

P.S. A precise trace of radioactive isotope in each "bar" would segregate the two types and thus make it easy to tell if any "leaked" out of the CB vaults by "mistake".

ANOTHER: Mr. Steel, I add this to your thoughts. A currency losses value because persons do not want to use it for commerce or savings. During the times of "distress", this "value loss" does happen because citizens are selling the paper for other currencies or they are exchanging it for "things". In times past, a currency becomes "bad" because the government is no longer trusted to maintain the value of paper money. In your process, noone would take a paper gold receipt from a government if the gold could not be removed. Treasuries are known to cheat more than the once! If the paper receipts cannot bring gold, they become as "plain paper money". The Treasury say, "I print no more than amount equal to gold", but then they print more " as a temporary, emergency, measure", but then there be no end to emergencies, Yes?

My proposition: Revalue gold to represent all currencies. Perhaps many thousands US/oz. and all governments buy and sell gold for these currencies, in the open. In this outcome, we find no more "black market physical gold" than there be "black market physical currencies"!

Thank You


(Thu Sep 03 1998)

To All:

Will the Euro become as the dollar of days past?

If one hears the thoughts of present investors, they consider this new currency as "a horse to fat for the running"! I offer that life is but a series of choices that, in each case, expose the risk of saving our productive efforts for a later time. Each choice does hold the bad flavor if eaten in inappropriate combinations. Even the vintage history of wine does show the bad years of mistaken purchases.

Some make the great gamble by trading investments for profit by day. As the night of these assets approaches, they find the dull taste of gold as "a season for the food of others". It seems, only the hot spice of derivatives will fill them! Yet, suddenly, a conservative nature takes hold in discussion of currencies. These same then speak loudly of a "Euro of little future" with no backing. It is much overlooked that the dollar has held the dominate position, to this day, "with little backing! Even fifteen years have passed from a time that many said, " this dollar has the weight of debt and will fall soon". It has not, it did not! Noone did see that the weight of trillions was "of little luggage" for this dollar camel that found strength in Gold! A gold chart from 1970, turn it upside down for view, there we see the strong dollar beast. However, even gold will not support the lead pack animal that does become wild with power. It will be put down when the replacement arrives. Mr. Kosares, from my last letter you find the direction to unload this dollar, yes? It be time to remove your luggage, quickly! Events, "to defend a falling dollar", "in the form of rising interest rates", will show this as the currency soon to lose the backing of gold.

I think the mistake, for many, does come from their "eyes of youth". Even the old experienced mind does, at times, view the world with "eyes of trust". Few can, or will understand what makes a currency, a currency. Gold has not changed, nor has it lost it's place in the world as money. It is still the test of currencies, yesterday, today and tomorrow!

Thank You


Friend of ANOTHER
(Thu Sep 03 1998)


Poland and China are good customers for the BIS. This is real physical gold they are taking out of circulation, not the pay me back when you have a chance lease deals. They really do have the IMF/Dollar countries over the barrel. Under these conditions it's easy for them to drain the Canadian gold reserves. Soon, these goldless countries will be left with nothing but high yield US dollar treasury notes. Later, when new issues of this paper is yielding 15%-20% these Central Banks will wish for the day when they held an assetthat offered no return! Gold!

The world currency crisis is heading for resolution. I think most of the reallocation of reserve assets is complete. Now the war can commence. The Dollar NEEDS a lower gold price to keep it up. London tried to use the Russian gold story as an excuse to send it down. My understanding is that whatever collateral was freed up from the USSR , the BIS picked up for others. It left the brokers selling leases for almost nothing or 1/2% or so. No one was buying them so the rate just fell on no volume. This was a lucky move for them as the perception was that massive sales were taking place. I don't think the BIS wants to be seen as a currency destroyer so they are doing the buying quietly. Investors know now that $280 will come back rather quickly. I thought it would take a month or so!

Michael, I'm looking for a large default in the paper gold market. With the major CB only buying now something is about to give as the most extended shorts can not cover. A default is most likely part of a game plan to get the ball rolling. This spike in gold will no doubt crush the dollar. The next few months will offer the last period of time to roll out of dollar assets at a good price. Of course, all of this is my opinion from and for the most part, Another's.



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