USAGOLD Discussion - March 1999

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 00:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 2827)
Sir Peter of Ashershire
I enjoyed your Msg 2808 from 2/28. Your description of stock certificates functioning as a major currency shows you to be a knight of good perception--for it is the truth whether the investors perceive it or not! This idea makes for a good segue into some text I had written earlier this weekend, so I imagine now would be an appropriate time to type it. But first, this:
In your post you wrote,
"Now, on the fact that the manifestation of the inflated money supply has been in the paper economy. Back in November I and then Aragorn, pointed out that peoples money is not IN the market. The money went from the buyer to the seller of the stock, and then (or after more cycles of stock market "investment" ) into the "real" economy. So, is there really such a thing as inflation [and money--Aristo] in equities?"

I had shared your and Aragorn's view until this small change in perspective occurred to me just now. What you have said is, and remains, technically correct; nothing is "IN" the stock market--the money passes THROUGH to the seller. But I would suggest we consider this thought too: In a rising or otherwise promising stock market, the seller may tend to sit on the cash from his sale, keeping it as liquid cash, waiting the short while until it is to be reinvested in whatever he feels to be the newest promising stock. Arguably then, Peter (and Aragorn), I would suggest that in this regard someone may suggest (though not technically correct) that much of the nation's excess cash is tied up in the stock market. When stocks are no longer generally viewed as the best form in which to hold or risk one's wealth, this cash in limbo will flow elsewhere. As it chases around real goods, with the seller also spending his cash as quickly as received, the price inflation that everyone questions will become readily apparent to accompany the money supply inflation that has developed over recent years in the U.S.

This is a taste of the blurb I mentioned jotting down.
The dollar is a tired old man from whom we've asked too much. For too long the dollar has had to be all things to all people. Now, it is more important than ever to recognize the several props that became necessary subsequent to the golden legs being cut from under the dollar. Because it can no longer stand alone, enter Bonds on the left and Investments on the right--its crutches.

The modern dollar (following the global inflation of supply from 1930's to 1990's) has utterly lost its monetary capacity as a store of wealth/value, and it retains only the capacity of a medium of exchange.
Think of the cash dollar as spending-money. It is not something to be held for long in its pure form.
Think of Bonds as holding-money, the paper form in which people were intended to engage in "savings"-- to "store the value" of their modern fiat dollar. However, modern trading and speculative practices in the Bond markets has changed this. Volitility in relative values of global currencies (exchange rates) and shifting governmental policies has undermined this "store of value" element of Bonds.
Think of Investments as employing your cash in a career. With an Investment you are putting your money to work for one or more companies in the form of stock shares. This is not without risk! Your money may be injured or killed on the job. It may leave for work one morning and never return home. While it is away at work, you must accept that it is out of your hands entirely. The reason people subject their dollars to this risk is to supplement their own income (two careers are better than one(?)) because of the overall failings of the dollar's (and Bond's) failings as a store of wealth/value.

There would not be near the stressed foreign exchange, bond, and stock markets if all people would see the new dollar for what it is and react accordingly. I offer the solution in the form of a personal gold standard.
Use dollars only as a medium of exchange--that is ALL that they are!!
Stay away from Bonds--they are a false-prophet of value and profit!!
Use Investments in stocks only on that fraction of your wealth that you are willing to risk in a sane market--because sanity WILL RETURN to the markets.
Use Gold to consistently convert all excess monetary wealth. There are more and more people worldwide using this approach as they have already learned the hard lesson from a failed fiat currency. Gold is with only tiny effort a medium of exchange, or "spending-money." Gold is a Rock of Gibraltar form of savings or store-of-wealth/value. Any past manipulation of price is nothing but a GIFT to those who enter the gold standard now. Any manipulation cannot much longer bear up under the current stresses in the systems. For this reason, gold is also right now able to function as the safest of all possible Investments...your money will leave for work in the morning, and return many times multiplied in the evening. Spend what you like ON what you like, and leave the balance as gold.

The dollar is tired. Let him Rest in Peace. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 02:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2828)
Knights of the Round Table, stretch your legs on a walkabout!
I found a door down a passage I had never before travelled. Let there be no doubt that we are housed within the best of all castles! See for yourself...
Walk under the archway engraved "USAGOLD Home Page" and take the passage to the heavily constructed, locked, and guarded door marked "Product List". Don't worry...as a knight, the guards will greet you with honor and let you pass inside. Feast your eyes, my good men!
My, what an impressive testimony to our fine efforts and errantry we are assembling in our treasure room!! We are surely the wealthiest and most honorable castle in the land... "A toast! To living well and free at USAGOLD! Hear! Hear!" ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 08:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2829)
A world of news you can use
BRIDGE OVERNIGHT: PRECIOUS METALS:
Tokyo--Mar 1--Japan's foreign currency and gold reserves in February
totaled 221.470 billion, down $741 million from a month earlier, the
Finance Ministry said today. The current record high for reserves is
$228.385 billion marked in November 1997. By Bridge News, Story .697

Mumbai--Feb 27--India's gold imports may drop by 50-100 tons on expected
large mobilization of gold under the new gold deposit scheme announced in
the budget for 1999-2000 (Apr-Mar) today, according to M.L. Damani,
president of Bombay Bullion Exchange. Bridge News, Story .15069
New Delhi--Feb 27--Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today abolished
the special customs duty of 5% with effect from Sunday. However, the
special additional customs duty of 4% will continue. He also reduced the 7
existing rates of customs duty to 5 basic rates of 5%, 15%, 25%, 35% and
40%. Bridge News, Story .15032
New Delhi--Feb 27--Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today announced a
major gold mobilization program to draw gold jewelry from Indian households
and religious institutions. This will be largest effort to unlock thousands
of tonnes of gold from private custody in India, the world's largest gold
consumer. Bridge News, Story .15001

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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No further reproduction without written permission
USAGOLD
(03/01/1999; 08:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2830)
Today's Gold Market Update---Bonds Crater, Indian Government Asks Citizens to Give Up Their Gold
MARKET UPDATE (3/1/99): Gold was sideways in early trading with most currencies down against the dollar and June T-bonds plummeting in Chicago on heavy hedge fund selling. Late last week there were rumors that mega-speculator George Soros, the man who moves markets, was dumping his prodigious bond holdings. The selling seems to have carried over to this morning's market action. The weakness in the bond market has translated to weaker stocks in past sessions and trades will be watching to see if that will be the case today. If so, there could be a rapid drop in the DJIA. The weakness in bonds is probably what is keeping gold from following the cratering euro southward.

A political scheme hatched in India to persuade citizens to trade their gold for interest bearing paper was criticized by gold traders as too complex, while bankers in India applauded the government attempt to put distance between its citizens and their gold. Gold holders are being asked to exchange their gold for paper after which they will receive a return on the paper plus the return of the gold at the end of the term. These are essentially gold loans being made by the Indian people to the banks with the hope that they will receive the gold back at some point in the future. The scheme is not much different from the ones hatched by bullion banks in Britain, Euroland and the United States involving hedge funds, mining companies and central banks. The problem is this: Once Indians turn in their gold the banks will not keep it on deposit. They will sell it, or re-lend it. Once they do, the depositor faces the prospect of never seeing that gold again since the bank is essentially short selling the metal and hoping to replace it at some later date. Anyone who gives up their gold under such circumstances will deserve what they get: A piece of paper sorely devalued by term's end.

We know we have Indian readers who visit this site. Our advice: Hold tight. The scheme will not work. You are better off with your gold. For American and Europeans watching all this unfold, though it is an event far away geographically, it is not too distant financially. Most veteran gold owners understand that same type of schemes could be hatched in our own countries. Watch with interest and take notes. The same movie could be playing at a theater near you soon. When reading this morning's reports, something about it sounded eerily familiar. I couldn't help but compare the Indian situation with the Roosevelt gold confiscation of 1933. Indian bankers went out of their way to emphasize that the gold would kept in "safe custody." Of course, whatever we have to say here is not nearly as powerful as hundreds of years of Indian culture which would not allow individuals to give up the family fortune no matter what the bankers promise.

If you like this type of analysis you might like our newsletter now read and appreciated by over 8000 current and prospective gold owners. The latest issue is now available. It concentrates on a recapitulation and update on our New Four Horsemen of Apocalypse, and some interesting data on the boom in gold coin sales as Y2K preparation revs up worldwide. The latest News & Views concentrates on the Y2K problem and contains a helpful checklist of baseline preparations.

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Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 08:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2831)
$PREM.X leading the MKT down
The DOW and S&P are falling again today, while the XAU is trying to hold above the 60 level. The FORUM is giving my computer fits as it will not update correctly.
<:-)
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 09:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 2832)
The calm before the storm?
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Lower; Trade Selling in Plat., Silver

New York-March 1-FWN--...Gold trade was characterized as uneventful with no
special factors pushing it slightly to the downside. April's
pit-session range is just 50 cents, from $287.90 to $288.40.
Support was put at $285 and resistance at $290...

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 09:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2833)
The calm before the storm?
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Lower; Trade Selling in Plat., Silver

New York-March 1-FWN--...Gold trade was characterized as uneventful with no
special factors pushing it slightly to the downside. April's
pit-session range is just 50 cents, from $287.90 to $288.40.
Support was put at $285 and resistance at $290...

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

[A second attempt. The first post failed to arrive??]
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 10:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 2834)
Alert! From the tower we see a paper fire on the horizon. Here, too.
Bonds stumble; bears in charge
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET Mar 1, 1999

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys skidded...led by the bellwether
30-year, which slid over a point.
"...Selling from Asian accounts was witnessed in the intermediate sector
Monday and players said they were expecting more unloading of Treasurys
from mortgage-related players in a continuation of last week's trend.
Prices remain extremely vulnerable and appear ready to capitulate at the
drop of a hat. Friday could turn out to be a disaster if the employment
report shows, as many predict, that tightness in the labor market is
more pronounced than had been thought..."

To see it all, stats and ads and whatnot--
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990301/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

[At his request, I won't jinx a certain poster that called this long before the TownCrier's sources. We are in awe here in the tower.]
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 10:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2835)
ONLY way to get update
?
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 11:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2836)
The dollar rises on a foundation of hot air? Reason given for euro fall is justification for the contrary.
Euro continues slide to fresh record low in U.S.

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Europe's two-month old common currency hit
another record low on Monday as the U.S. economy continued to outperform
core Europe, where central bankers did not appear poised to help out by
lowering interest rates...

See it here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/m2.html

Also:
Monday March 1, 11:52 am Eastern Time
Dollar Tops 1.46 Swiss Francs, Highest Since August '98, on Strong U.S. Economy
(This is a headline-only alert)
Richard, Oregon
(03/01/1999; 11:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2837)
Nowhere Else To Go!
Peter A - I read with concern your post #2812. It seems you are saying that one should get everything out of the stock market & mutual funds. Is this correct? What if one is planning for a 3 to 5 year appreciation on their investment? I'm short on time. I look for your response later and maybe to explain myself more if required.
USAGOLD
(03/01/1999; 11:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2838)
TEST
Problems....
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 12:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2839)
At the end of it all, gold will be the last man standing
BLAIR SAYS EU SHOULD FOLLOW U.S.
Updated Mon�Mar� 1, 1999� 19:01 GMT
Prime Minister Tony Blair is set to tell his counterparts at the EU
Socialist parties' meeting in Athens Tuesday that Europe must learn
economic lessons from the US if it wants to achieve the dynamism
required to make the euro work. Blair will say the euro zone must take
into account in its policy-making the greater price competition and
openness in the US, according to a UK Press Association report. "You
simply cannot argue" with the fact that the US has lower unemployment
and higher growth, Blair will say.

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.bridge.com/
No further reproduction without written permission from Bridge News
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 12:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2840)
Kitco
Is kitco down?
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 12:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2841)
I mean the discussion forum. Their site is up but no
posts or...?
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 13:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2842)
There could be 2000 reasons for this news...
Mexico stocks resume trading after 3-hr failure

MEXICO CITY, March 1 (Reuters) - Mexico's stock market resumed trading
on Monday after a technical failure on its recently launched electronic
system shut down all trading for about three hours, dealers said.
As trading began again, stocks picked up their morning losing trend...

See if you can solve the mystery here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/yb.html
---------------------------------------

Fed to reassess risks at March 30 FOMC--McDonough

ALBANY, N.Y., March 1 (Reuters) -
..."Market interest rates, especially long-term intrest rates, have backed
up in the last two weeks -- mortgage rates and government securities and
private sector bonds. That will have in and of itself, a slowing effect
on the economy," Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough said.

"On the other hand, the purely domestic economy is so robust that we
could have some strain on resources,"...

Got resources? To see more--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/y9.html
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 13:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 2843)
Wait a minute...Doesn't "an increase in the interest rate" reveal a weaker dollar? See Real, see Rouble, see ad nauseam...
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Lower as Bond Yields, Dollar Rise

New York-March 1-FWN--Rising bond yields and a
strengthening U.S. dollar hurt the precious metals
complex today, sources here said. Profit taking was cited in
the silver, while floor contacts reported trade selling in
the gold and silver.
Declining U.S. Treasury bonds have meant an increase in
the interest rate, and this along with a stronger U.S.
dollar are hurting the precious metals, related Peter
Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.
The June Treasury bonds are 28/32 lower at 120 3/32,
and the dollar is up 0.37 Japanese yen at Y119.69, up 1.37
German pfennig at DM1.7946 and up 0.81 U.S. cent against the
euro at $1.0902.
"Basically, that's what's knocking us for a loop here
today," said Cardillo.
May silver lost 10.5 cents to settle at $5.5250. April
gold at one point traded down to $286.50, but recovered
enough to finish with a loss of just 60 cents to
$287.70.
"Actually, gold is holding up pretty good, in the face
of the 10-cent decline in silver," said Cardillo.
Meanwhile, a gold/silver dealer commented that there
was low volume in silver. "There was some profit taking on
the day," he said.
Gold was likewise quiet, he said.
Floor contacts reported some trade selling in both
metals, with a gold trader adding that some sell stops were
hit in gold, pushing the market to its session low shortly
after midday.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 13:40:18 MDT - Msg ID: 2844)
?
test
Voyager
(03/01/1999; 14:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2845)
Test
Test
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 14:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2846)
Today was three in a row !
Yes, the XAU index for the third session in a row fell through the 60 level mid-day and reversed and then closed above the 60 level. SJKaplan calls this action a bullish reversal! Things are coming to CRUNCH time. But, I am not sure if my heart can stand the pressure. (Just kidding.)
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 14:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2847)
Crier
I thought it goes like this.

1) Bond holders are selling because they think higher interest rates will see new bonds at greater yields, lowering the immediate market value of those that they now own so they liquidate.

2) Those higher interest rates increase the net investment flow into the country and therefore the stronger dollar.

It would be different if bonds were selling off because a weaker dollar was increasing the perception of higher risk.
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 14:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2848)
"Rivlin Says No Evidence So Far That Tight U.S. Labor Market Causing Inflation"
Ms. Rivlin's 'Inflation'...
Can you say "Animal Farm"? I knew that you could.
Thus endeth the lesson. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 15:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2849)
Richard, you asked for advice
One of the luxuries of publishing on the Forum is not being responsible for one's theories.

Post #2812 postulates the *possibility* that the first action of a market reversal at this point would be a diminishing inflow of funds causing prices to fall. That in turn would cause an increase in investors cashing out and thereby create a substantial sell off. That would cause a further reduction in new investment and so the cycle would accelerate. As many of us have pointed out, cashing out is dependent on new money coming in and that will only occur as and if people consider the lower prices a good buy. (Otherwise its just goodbye)

As to how the public *will* react? Well, you have just described yourself as the archetypical investor. So, if you want really good advice, ask yourself what will your response be to a flat market, to a sell off and to a rout? Then decide if you want to get a jump on yourself, so to speak.

Remember

"For knowledge complete,
You must sit at the feet,
Of the Wright Brother's flight instructor."
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 15:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 2850)
Peter and our ever-vigilant TownCrier
Occam's razor, me boys...Occam's razor.
I find it helpful to reduce a situation to the bare necessities...strip it down to the elemental Cause and Effect.

"What" causes "what" here? The perceptions of the dollar's current and future strength/value is what drives the boat. The Fed is inclined to raise their rates when they perceive there to be too many dollars sloshing around...too many WEAK dollars. The bond market often takes matters into their own hands. If they have a perception of a weak dollar, they will not be willing to hold bonds for a low rate of return on future weak dollars.
Peter, your first point recognizes this. Your second point, though...it cuts both ways, depending on whether the collective market sentiment for the future is optimistic or pessimistic. As the Crier point out...Russia, Brazil,...here we see your higher interest rates but do not see an increased net investment flow into those countries and thereby causing a stronger currency. Or else I'm looking at it all wrong.
Perhaps this is what you were driving at with your caveat: "It would be different if bonds were selling off because a weaker dollar was increasing the perception of higher risk."

Money was never supposed to be this difficult. Return to a gold standard and abolish fractional reserve lending, and you've got a helluva lotta out-of-work economists and financial consultants. Sounds fine by me. Occam's razor! ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 15:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2851)
Sorry, Sir Peter, I've only two cents to contribute. I leave the analysis for you Knights at the Round Table. A view of Brazil from my Tower:
Brazil shares surge at close as currency crashes

SAO PAULO, March 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian shares shot up at the close
Monday as the currency plunged to an historic low...
"The Bovespa is up because of the dollar appreciation, that's all," a
dealer at BancoCidade in Sao Paulo said.
The real currency ended at an all-time closing low of 2.15 per dollar as
dollars flew out of the foreign exchange market, which was already
suffering from low liquidity...

And from another source:
"Brazil is walking a precarious path through a minefield. And it is not yet clear
what its immediate economic future holds," Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin added.
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 16:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2852)
I believe this is a real-world example of what ET, Aragorn III, and The Stranger were discussing Sat. and Sun.
The Brazilian real fell to its lowest level since January's devaluation, as traders anticipated a scramble for dollars by companies repaying maturing debts.

The currency weakened 4.9 percent to 2.14 to the dollar, the biggest one-day drop in six weeks. The real slid as low as 2.16. Since the Jan. 13 devaluation, it has weakened 44 percent.

With about $1.7 billion in debts maturing this month and Brazil shut off from international capital markets, demand for a limited supply of dollars could drive the real lower still. "Over the length of the month, there's quite a bit of stuff coming due," said Edson Sarti, a Banco Credibanco foreign-exchange trader. "What we're seeing to day could be banks making dollar purchases in advance."

Sarti said the central bank's failure to act in the foreign exchange market today -- after intervening for three days last week -- may also have emboldened some banks to buy dollars, betting that they'd be able to sell them later at a profit.

The real futures contract expiring at the end of March weakened 4.20 percent to 2.12 per dollar.

In addition to selling millions of dollars to support the real, on Thursday and Friday, the central bank sent regulators to personally monitor trading at many banks. They didn't show up today, though, traders said. "There's a big tendency to try figuring out which level the central bank will come in at," Sarti said. "There's really a lot of speculation going on, so it's worrying when they don't act."

What's more, the currency decline raised concern that inflation, which already rose to a pace of 3.6 percent in February in one survey, could accelerate. "If the exchange rate stabilizes at a higher rate, like 2.2 or 2.3 to the dollar, and you have higher inflation, it will be more difficult to avoid indexation," Andre Loes, chief economist at Banco Bozano Simonsen in Brazil. "What is important is we don't want to see a big inflation figure for the month of March, like 7 or 8 percent. This would give the sensation of inflation going out of control."

That will further squeeze companies such as OPP Petroquimica SA. The petrochemical arm of the Odebrecht group, said today it paid $113 million to bondholders exercising an option demanding early repayment securities due to mature in 2004.

The high cost of those dollars was underlined when the Brazilian investment bankers' association reported today companies were unable to borrow any money abroad in the first two months, compared to $10.4 billion in the same period last year.

[As forwarded from a news wire report.]
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 17:05:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2853)
A word to the people of Japan
After a Senate panel hearing on the U.S. Social Security retirement hearing, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told reporters of his trip to Japan last week. "Japan certainly faces important challenges and Japanese authorities are very much aware of those challenges." Also, "They are very much determined to trying to do what we all agree is important, which is trying to bring about domestic demand-led growth."
-------------------
The surest way to do that is to invoke policy that erodes the purchasing power of the yen through time. The people realize in regard to their savings that they had better "Use it or lose it." Just like in U.S. over modern history.

Here is my tip to all those Japanese citizens that do not want to frivolously spend down their savings on assorted bric-a-brac. Buy gold. Your yen will leave your accounts to stimulate the demand side of the economy as the U.S. so desires of you, and your personal liquid wealth will be retained as you will now hold a superior form of savings--gold! ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 18:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2854)
April gold now $287.80...
If you guys and gals want to see a classic bounce off a lowering bollinger, pull up http://www.quote.com/livechartscom/livechart. Put in gc9j then on the bottom put in bollinger.

I forgot, you need to turn on 'all sessions' and candles. This will clearly show you what I am seeing.

At 12:30pm the POG went through $286.60 to $286.50. This then traded side-ways away from a lowering bollinger for 10-minutes then baboom up she went. This is IMO a classic bounce. To recognize this pattern is as good as gold -- a keeper skill.

Then notice how the bollinger bands are coming together now. It looks like the lower band will meet at $287.50 and then the price will probably lower through this for another up trend but not enough data yet. Quite the fascinating chart, eh?

Richard, Oregon
(03/01/1999; 18:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2855)
Aristotle - 03/31 #2828
Aristotle - You continue to bring wisdom, understanding, discernment and knowledge to this ever growing round table and as for me, a smile to my face and a chuckle to my tummy. Thanks!!
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 19:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2856)
Crier, Aristotle, Richard.
Comparing the current US economy to that of Russia or Brazil, is like comparing a ship encountering rough weather to the one beached in two pieces down the road here.

Russia consumed her infrastructure and capital base in an orgy of a profiteering, free-for-all liquidation. Brazil, having had a runaway "wheelbarrow" inflation, probably is in a similar but less devastated state.

The main danger facing the US economy is the resolution of the Cinderella stock market. The Bubble has been sustained by the low interest rates of the moment making the current PE ratios valid; just barely. This is the time bomb I was addressing yesterday, in #2812. My favorite description of this is (of course) from my msg.# 1150,4 Dec. P.M.

The "Tulip Bulb" phenomena is rampant, and the Ponzi scheme-pyramid game mechanics are the driving
force. The Market goes up despite the fundamentals because it is seen as continuously giving far greater return than other
"investments." These investors do not comprehend that their money has passed into the hands of the former stockholder, and
they now have only paper that they hope will be cashed out by someone else at a higher price. This has been the alchemy of
turning investors' "savings" into the sellers spending money, fueling the great economic boom. But, when the "savings" don't get
created by jobs and profits, who will the investors sell to? Greenspan and Co. have the tiger by the tail and still manage to chuck
another rate cut up front for the tiger to munch on. As long as this game can remain in play, the gold holder will see the profits
go by, but when the reality hits, the market won't be at the top, and the exits will already be crowded. So building a Gold
position now would be the better part of valor.

I am awaiting Richard's response, as our in house, resident stockholder, to give us a one man survey of what we might expect the public to do.
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 19:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2857)
Steve --- but look at the XAU chart
On the five min chart, XAU looks even better than the GC9J chart. YES, the time is drawing near. The stok and mo also are looking GREAT. Just what triggers the BLAST OFF into the upper levels is the ?QUESTION? !!! Ideas anyone?
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/01/1999; 20:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2858)
Hush! I Think I Hear Something
All sorts of things can cause bonds to sell off. But only one thing can bring on a bond bear market. Put your ear to the ground and listen carefully. Inflation is here.

So what if the dollar goes up against other currencies. That merely means that inflation expectations are even higher elsewhere. There is no mutual exclusivity between a rising dollar and falling treasuries prices.

SteveH
(03/01/1999; 21:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2859)
April gold now...
$287.80 and Canadian Silver Maple leaf now a whopping $15.00 on ebay:

1999 Mint Silver Maple Leaf Y2K 1 oz .9999 Item #71142321

Coins & Stamps:Coins:US:Gold
Currently
$15.50
First bid $8.00
Quantity
1
# of bids
9 (bid history) (with emails)
Time left
1 hours, 6 mins +

plus shipping of
$2.00

plus insurance of
$?

plus money order fee of $.80

Makes a whopping $19.00 plus per ounce.

Now that shows the demand for these puppies. And that isn't the only one. Next one now at $12.50, and $10.50 coming up soon for end of auction.

Incredible. And bidding is not closed yet.

Only a matter of time before paper silver follows. This pent up demand and thirst for physical will prove Another was right on the mark.

Goldfly
(03/01/1999; 22:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2860)
Hi Ho Silver! Away!!!
Uh, Lone Stranger, Goldfly see heap-big cloud of M3 blowing across valley.

Mmmm..... Look! People have yellow metal in hand- not get blown around!

Make Goldfly think...... me not take Wampum for pay now. No, you keep dumb mask..... me take some gold. Or maybe silver bullets? Or saddle?

Got ballast?
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 23:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 2861)
final test
Is it working yet?
Aristotle
(03/02/1999; 00:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2862)
Various and all knights
Richard,
It looks like someone carted up some of that treasure I discovered in the recesses of the castle to inspire us here at the Round Table. My only grievance is that now I can't bring myself to scroll down to the lower regions of the Forum page!

Gandalf and SteveH,
Our resident map masters! I was wondering...if we took all of your charts and arranged them in a single stack, I'll bet we could really roast some marshmallows for want of a match!
Also, can your charts answer me this: At the end of the day, when some of your lines intersected and some bounced and some did neither, is an ounce of gold still 31.103 grams?
Just some playful ribbing, guys. Every court needs a jester now and again to cartwheel through the room. Why, I cannot say. That is just the way it is. Keep up the good work :)

TownCrier,
Your two-cents-worth quips are the best entertainment bargain I've found. And your long Brazil story was a gem. A classic primer for those who want to know what happens when a nation's currency goes south. An excellent Case Study; required homework for all assembled knights whether at the table or standing at the periphery of the room just beyond the firelight.

Peter and The Stranger, (others= ET, turbohawg, A.III, backlash, Goldfly, T.Remital, Gold Dancer, AEL, No49, etc.)
It's good to have you heavyweights defending the castle while the others are out slaying dragons (at least that is what they'll tell us...we *know* they are really at the pub!).
Give some mindful consideration to our biggest challenge yet. When The Stranger had his ear to the Earth listening to the rumblings of 'inflation' (whatever THAT is!), I submit to you that you were also hearing the advancing troops of the Year 2000 invasion. I hope our remaining heavyweights return from slaying their steins to help man the walls on this one. I also hope we can locate some additional wisdom from those who have been busy polishing their armor in the corners.

Think of this as a theoretical exercise; no wrong answers. The 'facts' are worthy of the quote marks I've given them, and uncertainty rules the day. I believe that Y2K itself is worthy of a degree of preparedness, and therein lies the problem. In a world of small inventories and just-in-time deliveries, there is little chance that everyone can get everything that they would choose to have to attain their personal comfort-level of preparedness. The longer the bulk of the population waits "to buy a few things, 'just in case'", the smaller that chance becomes.
I believe manufacturing and agricultural industries will do well this year as they ramp-up production to meet this atypical demand. Would I invest in their stock in anticipation of this growth? Hell no, that is poor prioritization! Would I buy their products? Yes I would.

Banks are going to have a tough time of it, and I'd say they already are. I know of several examples where a person or business was denied a loan within the past few months that could have readily obtained one a year ago. On a personal note, I have an impeccable credit rating, and had a recent interest in obtaining a specific credit card that had introductory incentives that appealed to me. I applied...you guessed it...DENIED. Now remember, our fiat monetary system requires that new lending outpace loan repayments. Brothers of the Round Table, this has come to an end. Not only will the monetary sytem be perceived as 'In Jeopardy' due to the fractional availability of hard/paper currency, but the banking system itself is at risk from withdrawn capital reserves and increasing debt default. And remember from an earlier post that a dollar is only worth as much as the contract that gave it life. The asian contagion will arrive on our shore on gossamer wings in the guise of "Y2K Irrationality". At least that is what the federal officials and media will call it.

Do you know why the largest denomination bill is the $100 Federal Reserve Note? Sure, they might tell you it is a defense against the drug trade, but that is "Animal Farm" all over again. It was felt that smaller bills were a psychological advantage against a perception of the onging money supply inflation. In 1969, McKinley on the $500, Cleveland on the $1,000, Madison on the $5,000, Chase on the $10,000, and Wilson on the $100,000 ceased production. Will we see these bills re-emerge out of necessity? $100's simply can't be printed fast enough in the remaining months to represent the digital money on account.

A panic is not a prerequisite for big problems. Our current system is stretched so thin that normal precautions will, shall I say, 'break the bank.' There can be no denying the magnitude of this phenomenon. I recently received USAGOLD's newsletter, as I'm sure all of you did. Take a look at the page one graph of Gold Sales by the U.S. Mint. THAT, my dear fellows, is what I would call a runaway train. In all honesty, international economic and financial principles pale in comparison. There is no question in my mind where I would choose to see my friends hold their hard won wealth whether large or small. I'm already on a gold standard, so my position is one of "fascinated observer."

Whither gold, and whither banks? You tell me, O Knights noble at the Round Table assembled. ---Aristotle
el St.One
(03/02/1999; 01:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 2863)
Deflation and Gold
The following is the end of an article By Dr BOB ROBBS from Gold-Eagle.com via fiendbear.com

That the US has a foreign trade deficit running nearly $300 Billion this year will put strong
pressure on the dollar to devalue internationally.

There is another factor affecting gold. When it is held as a monetary asset of last resort and
when times get rough, this gold is liquidated. We saw that in Asia early last year. That's partly
why gold prices fell. Will that happen again? This is unknown, however should the West see
heavy deflation, I doubt there will be wholesale gold liquidations simply because very few
private parties in the West own much of it as a percentage of total assets. In fact, after the
big spike in the gold price in 1980, when an ounce hit $850, gold in the rich Western countries
has been relentlessly dishoarded by private hands. Do you know anyone with appreciable
assets in gold? I doubt you do. This is in stark contrast to Asian countries, where private
stashes form a monetary backbone for most people. Asians are now buying back much of the
gold dumped during those times. The last 3 months of 1998 saw the largest gold demand of
any quarter in world history, according to the World Gold Council who compiles such
statistics.

Statistics prove that in the long run, gold is a very stable medium to store wealth. Every
single fiat system devised since the 8th Century China has crashed and burned. The US dollar
has lost 90% of its value since 1950. Do you think the last 10% is sacred?

For those interested in the data of how gold has fared from 1560 to the present, read "The
Golden Constant" by Roy Jastrom, or read Dr. Dan Ascani's articles entitled "Gold in
Deflation" found at Gold Eagle: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/ascani021599.html

The purchasing price of gold has always reverted to the mean through the centuries. At
present the long-term value of gold is about $600 in today's dollars, giving you an idea of how
undervalued it is as an asset.


"Dr. Bob Dobbs"

28 February 1999
el St.One
(03/02/1999; 02:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2864)
Test
TEST
T. Remital
(03/02/1999; 06:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 2865)
choo-choo...
If you are getting bored with this small trading range of comex gold ...just remember
you are witnessing the end of 17 year bull mkt. in equities and a 19 year bear market in
precious metals. As the train pulls away from the station you should know that you may
not see these prices again for years..and years!!!! Trains don't turn at 60mph from a
station but gather speed as they pull away. JUST BE ABOARD!!!!!
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 07:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 2866)
HELP Webmaster Jeff
Tis not working well yet! Refresh not working. I have deleted ALL the Cache!
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 08:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2867)
T. Remital; Usal and ET
T.Remital, yours are good words to consider, though while you say this time will not be revisited for "years..and years!", I say this time will be seen "never again"!

ET and Usal: You've convinced me to put a stay on retirement plans. Would you accept an island vacation to Bahrain instead? Usal, I am in agreement with you regarding United Arab Emirites. I have a good friend from Dubai U.A.E. who is still there. I have not made that visit, but it is easy to imagine a place to be as good as its residents. All roads lead to Dubai...I must travel faster!
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 08:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2868)
Aristotle and the "mapmakers"
You are so correct, as usual. one oz. Troy = 31.103gms. YET ! BUT what is happening to those lines or candles give joy to the Hobbits TODAY after a long winter funk.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 08:05:58 MDT - Msg ID: 2869)
Apologies to U.A.E. (...Emirates)
Must not try to type while on the telephone!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2870)
A nice way to start your day
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Markets Bounce From Earlier Lows

New York-March 2-FWN--The precious metals complex
started out the day lower to steady here, but has since
moved to mostly higher.
April gold futures, which were earlier slightly softer
at $287.40, have bounced all the way to $290.50.
One floor source said the rally started on trade buying
by Goldman, Sachs, which encouraged short covering.
"The market is a little short. That's indicative of the
open interest these days, and was enough to get the shorts a
little nervous," this source said.
"So basically, we have trade buying causing some short
covering."
Another floor source cited buying by Morgan Stanley and
Cargill.
Resistance for the April gold was put at $291.10 and
$292.20, while support was put at $287.50 and $285.60.
May silver started softer, trading down to $5.4350, but
has since bounced as high as $5.58.
One gold/silver floor contact cited buying by J.
Aron.
"I think this morning they pushed it too hard," he
said. "It was probably yen- or currency-related...Now
they're buying it back."
The dollar is up 0.89 yen at Y120.60.
Another floor contact commented that locals were short
in silver, then buying emerged from Republic Bank, Milleneum
and York. This appeared to be mostly trade buying and
encouraged some short covering, he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
JA
(03/02/1999; 08:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 2871)
Steve H
Since we have not heard from you this morning I thought I would post the price of gold in your absence.
April Gold
Open High Low Last
288 290.5 287.4 289.4

This is just to let you know you are missed
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2872)
Read between the lines!
New York--Mar 1--While Republic New York Corp. announced today it would
restructure, exit certain businesses, and lay off employees, the company
said it would focus on "solidifying its leadership position in precious
metals and foreign exchange/banknotes." Bridge News, Story .19638

Palm Springs--Mar 1--London Metal Exchange chief executive David King said
today he has budgeted for a 10% decline in Exchange turnovers this year,
although in January, turnovers were actually up 2% over the previous year.
By Darcy Keith, Bridge News, Story .25092

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:40:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2873)
"Don't just stand there...DO something!"--Senators doing something...
Bennett, Dodd urge Y2K preparations

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Senate's leading experts on the Year 2000 computer problem...

...Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities, who also
appeared on CBS, said he is among a minority of economists who believe
the computer problem could cause a global recession with the breakdown
of inventory-control systems around the world...

...Bennett said one impact on the international economy could be "a flight
to quality" in which people remove money from countries where they feel
there's going to be an "infrastructure meltdown."
Bennett's report and CIA testimony to Congress last week pinpointed
poorer countries in general and Russia in particular as areas
ill-prepared for the millennium bug...

Peer into the future--
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncssun03.htm
USAGOLD
(03/02/1999; 09:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 2874)
Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Up on Strong Fundamentals; Brazil Back on Radar Screen
MARKET UPDATE (3/2/99): Gold bolted higher on short covering led by Goldman Sachs in New York, an 8% reduction in the COMEX gold stocks announced after the close yesterday (64,373 ounces), and weakness in stock markets around the world particularly in Europe and Latin America. FWN reports floor buying from Cargill and Morgan Stanley as well. The burst in activity in gold followed a quiet night overseas and could be a carryover from the inverted market we saw in late February. At that time gold was being delivered into the COMEX warehouse. Now it is being taken out. If one were to speculate what all the gold movements portend, the thought comes to mind that somebody is taking deliver -- and that somebody could be the American people who are buying gold coins in record numbers. Yesterday, we had another banner day at Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD with buyers coming into the market at all levels of participation. Most cite Y2K and a potential stock market drop for their purchases.

Meanwhile, the problems in Brazil have popped back up on the radar screen again. The real once again cratering with no hope in sight for stability. Joblessness has hit a record and promises only to get worse given the atypical IMF medicine these troubled economies are forced to swallow. Interest rates just hit 40%. And hyper-inflation grips the economy -- all of which adds up to another example of the inflationary depression aspects of the Asian contagion phenomena. The mess in Brazil prompted Armina Fraga, the new head of the Brazilian central bank, to lament at his recent Brazilian parliament confirmation hearing that "Our credibility really did fall in the last 18 months'' -- an understatement worth noting.

Well, that's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. We'll update if anything else surfaces. Have a good day.
JA
(03/02/1999; 09:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 2875)
Test
My previous post must have been zapped!
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 10:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2876)
Stock Market
Peter A - 03/01 #2856
One man survey of what I believe the public will do regarding the stock market - Well, I believe very much in what you stated in message #2812, 02/28:

"As the markets track over time at a diminished rate of growth, new investors come in at higher levels, and more people are seeing their holdings at little or no increase in value. The question is, when will this phenomena manifest itself in lessening the capital flowing into the market while simultaneously increasing the flow out of it? The beginning of the end of the "Bubble" will be, "Not with a bang, but with a whimper." Holders have gone down an emotional scale from euphoria to exuberance to confidence and will continue through complacency, nervousness, worry, fear and panic, possibly even to abject terror."

I believe it all, I guess just not as quick and maybe even as deep as you've eluded to. I liken it to a steam engine with a full head of steam, the very wealthy engineers. I see MUCH being spent and contrived to keep this market climb unending. There's too much to be lost and there's to much not to be gained. A 1929 type crash, I don't think so. The playing field is just too big, the stakes too high, and the players too many. I think in two to four years, it will appear as though it never happened. Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of little guys will loose and loose big, but the big guys won't. I don't know any more than you. This certainly gives me more food for thought (I'm a little guy).
rascal
(03/02/1999; 10:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2877)
Thanks from all goldbugs

I have been reading and enjoying the high quality of postings on this forum for months now. I sincerely thank you all for your continuing contributions. This is my first posting and hopefully I am not being too repetitious of thoughts that have been mentioned on this forum previously.
Overwhelming gratitude.
I feel an overwhelming sense of gratitude toward many individuals, companies, and institutions who are associated with gold. I am sending a gigantic thank you to all of you who are working so hard to see that the price of gold is being held down in a narrow range. On behalf of all the believers in gold who have been accumulating gold in all its forms at these bargain - once-in-a-lifetime - prices, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart. If you want to continue providing low-priced gold and gold-mining shares for us to purchase for another year or two, we will owe you an eternal debt of gratitude.
Thanks to all the speculators who are short.
I want to personally thank all of you speculators in paper gold for your willingness to continually take the risk of selling short in exchange for relatively tiny profits on your shorts as the trading range becomes narrower and narrower. I want to additionally thank you for not discovering that your profits from being long could be gigantic since there is almost no limit to how high a price can go. Keep up the good work. You are helping us goldbugs to accumulate and get ready. I even want to thank you gold shorts in advance for what you are going to do to make the coming bull move in gold really explosive. Thank you for being willing to suffer huge losses as you cover your shorts with the price of gold skyrocketing. Thank you for not noticing what is going on in the silver, platinum, and palladium markets which would give you a clue as to what you are going to be experiencing.
Thanks to all the Central Banks that sold gold.
I want to personally thank all of you Central Bankers who have forgotten the role that gold has played throughout history in the monetary systems of the world, and have chosen to recklessly sell your gold. Thanks for not bothering to study history. Thanks for giving us your precious gold while you are stuck with fleeting paper assets. Good luck in explaining your irresponsible actions at some future date.
Thanks to all the Central Banks that are leasing gold.
I want to personally thank all of you Central Bankers who have leased someplace between 3,000 and 14,000 tons of gold. It is truly a worthwhile contribution you have made in holding the price of gold down so that we goldbugs can continue to do our accumulation routine. Thank you for assuming this huge risk for such a small rate of return. Thank you for your blind-faith that you can overcome market forces. Thank you for being willing to assume the catastrophic risks associated with the price of gold suddenly zooming to a much higher level, and when this happens, thank you for being willing to explain why there were losses and defaults.
Thanks to all the investors in the high-flying stock market.
I want to personally thank all of you investors in the many over-valued sectors of the stock market. Please continue to base your investment decisions on the greater fool theory of investing. Thank you for not discovering the undervalued gold-mining stocks yet. We gold investors need a little more time to accumulate these shares at unheard of low prices. Thank you for not finding out that all the gold stocks in the world could be purchased for the market cap of just one of a number of listed stocks. Thank you for your willingness to buy over-valued stocks, because sometime in the future we will have some greater fool gold stocks to sell you. Thank you for not telling any wealthy investors that it would only take a small percentage of the flow of funds going into the stock market to move the gold market and gold shares to unprecedented heights. Please, investors, give us goldbugs a little more time to accumulate.
Thanks to the producers of gold
I even want to thank the gold-mining companies who seem to be working against their own best interests in selling gold forward. You are doing your part to hold the price of gold down so that we can buy more and more for a longer and longer period of time at these low prices. Your shareholders probably arent thanking you, because it is possible that you are depriving them of some well-deserved financial rewards. Anyhow thank you for having faith in the future of the gold industry. You certainly wouldnt be continuing to explore and develop new mines if you thought the price of gold was going to remain below $300.
Thanks to Alan Greenspan
I personally want to thank you, Alan Greenspan, for displaying irrational exuberance in your interest rate cuts last fall which have done much to encourage a debt and stock market bubble of dangerous proportions. This, along with your often quoted words about Central Banks being willing to sell gold, have really helped to keep the cap on the price of gold. Thank you for changing your position about the role of gold in the monetary system, or perhaps hypocritically pretending to change your beliefs. Your actions have done much to help us in our accumulation of gold at truly bargain prices.
Thanks to the short-sighted computer programers
I personally want to thank the computer programers who years ago laid the groundwork for our fast approaching Y2K crisis. This Y2K event is already having severe effects on the precious metals markets, and we still have 10 months to go. And you programers did this years ago before you even knew that the gold market would need a nudge this year. What foresight you possessed.

On behalf of the loyal believers in gold - the investors willing to put their faith in gold and gold-mining shares when they are greatly out-of-favor - I thank you one and all.
NORTH OF 49
(03/02/1999; 11:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 2878)
Who'ld-a-thunk it??!!
First, Sir Rascal, welcome to the FORUM.

This Round Table never ceases to amaze me. Up until this very moment, I really never thought of the numerous individuals and entities you mentioned as being "allies".

What a refreshing new perspective.

No49
Peter Asher
(03/02/1999; 12:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 2879)
Richard
This was the survey question. "As to how the public will react? Well, you have just described yourself as the archetypical investor. So, if you want really
good advice, ask yourself [what will your response be to a flat market, to a sell off and to a rout?]
AEL
(03/02/1999; 12:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 2880)
Michael
I like the new forum format -- whole day on one page, rather than
broken into a.m. and p.m. (an unneeded division, here). However,
I DID like the "Click Here to view yesterday's discussion" at the
TOP of the page (handy!). Could this be re-instated?

thx!
Aristotle
(03/02/1999; 12:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2881)
Two points
First Sir Peter, because you are sitting closest.
Your comments to Richard are a good reminder to us all that we are each, as you most eloquently phrase it, 'sitting at the feet of the Wright Brothers' flight instructor.' So true. Many answers may be learned by asking oneself.

Second, to Sir rascal, who has finished polishing his armor to a high golden shine, and has take a seat at the table. Well met indeed! Your synopsis gave me cause to double-check my calendar...we have so much to be thankful for I thought it must surely be November! You sound as one who has patted a gold coin or two upon your palm. May I guess that you are on a personal gold standard such a I? Either way, you are in good company here.

Extra Note..."So, Dr. Jones (No49), we meet again. Have you been busy raiding lost arks, temples of doom, or similarly occupied by other crusades?" ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 13:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2882)
Always remember, a Government's solution to everything is to throw more money at it
Summers - global storm clouds need time to clear
WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) - ...it may take time for the storm clouds that
have rocked Asia, Russia and Brazil to clear...
"The risks around the world are still very much tilted toward lack of
growth, spare capacity and slowdown -- rather than toward economic
overheating," Summers said in a speech to the National Association for
Business Economics. "Concerns are about excess supply not excess
demand. And in many places worries about rising prices have given way to
concern about falling prices"...

A short but sweet health report on the world is also given--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990302/1j.html
T. Remital
(03/02/1999; 13:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2883)
Any bets?
I hate to be negative but just looking at todays action ...I feel 300 au and 7400 dow are
within a week away... Lets have another contest MK.......
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 14:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2884)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: (note use of the term "massive"...we knew this to be true)
New York-March 2-FWN--Silver futures tumbled here today
on fund selling, with the move accelerated when stop-loss
orders were hit, market watchers said.
Gold, however, managed to finish slightly higher after
short covering.
The [silver] move appeared to be brought about by some fund
selling, said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer with LFG
Bullion Services.
"I believe this was just a washout where a couple of
large funds tried to get out at the same time, they ran into
stops and it dropped," said Kaplan.
Gold was helped by technically inspired short covering,
although it did give up some of its gains late in the
session. The April futures ended up 30 cents at $288.
Kaplan noted funds had been selling gold consistently
lately.
"Yet they have not been able to get spot gold under
$285," he said. "With the breakout of a minor downtrend line
on the daily charts, I would assume some of them finally
said 'OK, we're not going to get too much more out of this.'
So we've seen some short covering."
For April gold, "massive" support was put at $286 to
$286.50. Major resistance was put at $291.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Usul
(03/02/1999; 14:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2885)
Gold
Words from Joannes Agricola:

"One man will say that I am doing what another had already
done long ago, and that this process is so well known that
it is unnecessary to waste so much paper on it."

Like the alchemists of old, we seek the value of gold
ANOTHER knew this value, from long ago, do we follow?
All paper will become waste- let it become gold
Peter Asher
(03/02/1999; 15:22:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2886)
T.Remittal
I don't think a week will do it, how about two weeks?. The whittling away of recent market gains that I've been tracing is about 100 Dow points and 15 of the S&P 500, from what I would see as a break to the downside. My guess is that the "dipsters" will still feed the distribution sharks for a few more sessions before they discover they're the bait. Gold, I feel, needs some "safe haven seeking" from stock refugees to kick start it, then it's definitely a "Harley".

As to your third supposition, our host has staged contests at intervals from three to five weeks apart. Add to that data, recent news content regarding prize enticement and the three week interval seems to be most likely. However before investing in this prognosis we should wait for Steve to plot it on a weekly chart with a moving average and bollinger bands. (As Forum contests are a new issue, the various wave theories will not be needed). Also prudence would dictate soliciting a forecast from Gandalf's crystal ball.
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 16:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 2887)
COMEX Gold warehouse Stocks
(Usul, you are a tough act to follow)

They're nursing their aching backs at the COMEX warehouses these days. For the second straight day, over 60,000 Troy Ounces of the precious yellow metal have found somewhere else to call home.
To put that in perspective, at the Start of Business, the Scotia Mocatta, Morgan Guaranty, and Republic National depositories had a combined total of 675,593 Troy Ounces of Registered gold. Nearly 10% waved goodbye to their familiar walls as the day came to a close. The janitors at Scotia Mocatta will be in for a shock this evening will all the extra floor space to be swept and waxed, as the full 64,257 troy ounces were removed from that depository.

As it now stands, the COMEX Depositories hold 604,506 Troy ounces for the registered parties, 126,540 Troy ounces as eligible stock, for an eye-pleasing total of 731,046 Troy ounces gold.

While a tidy little sum by this reporter's standards, the fact remains that 'the showroom floor' is drifting a wee bit to the thin side.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's report.
From the S.M. COMEX Depository, this is TownCrier saying, "HELLO!"...HELLO....Hello...hello...(echoing for a really, really long time.)
NORTH OF 49
(03/02/1999; 16:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 2888)
Alas Aristotle, it's off to the Crusades
To be true, I have not stirred from my tent in a fortnight. (my God, now you've got ME buying into this Indianna fantacy!!)
I will, with heavy heart however, have to return to my current project in a very dismal Sakhalin Island, Russia, shortly. Tis not in search of pure gold, but alas, black gold that beckons me---well ok--let's face it, it's my job.

I say "with heavy heart", as I am somewhat incommunicado during my absence, and the thought of missing out on the upcoming excitement in the PM markets is quite distressing.
It will be with you Sir, that I proxy my torch.

No49
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 16:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 2889)
Words of the day
"It's time for Japan to think creatively about the best use of all the tools of fiscal and monetary policy to create an expectation of confidence and renewed growth," U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said, in making the strongest suggestion to date by a U.S. policy-maker that the Japanese government should expand its money supply. Summers told the National Association for Business Economics, "We all agree on the importance of price stability, but it is important to recognize that the goal of price stability means avoiding deflation as well as inflation."

"Considering the risks it faces, Japan's promised fiscal stimulus needs to be fully implemented and sustained over the next few years. Its boost to the economy should also be accommodated by monetary policy." U.S. officials have hinted they would like to see the BOJ step up purchases of government bonds, putting more currency into circulation.

These words speak for themselves. I've a question for the money holders, the savers, in these two nations...

got gold?
JA
(03/02/1999; 18:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2890)
Town Crier
I found your last post interesting. My understanding is that there are 12 troy ounces in a troy pound. Someone will need to help me on how many troy pounds in a ton but for now I will assume 2000. If they had 731,046 ounces that equates to 60,920 lbs. and about 30 ton. I think I could fit 30 ton of gold in my garage. I guess that's why they call it the heavy metal.

Which makes Greenspans comment all the more laughable, that banks were selling gold because of high storage costs.
The Stranger
(03/02/1999; 20:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2891)
JA
I hope you had a good time in Utah over the weekend. I went skiing at Deer Valley on Sunday. I told my daughter that I was sorry I didn't run into the President while he was up there. She said, "I'll bet you've got a thing or two to tell him, Dad."
"No," I said, "I just wanted to run into him."
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 20:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2892)
How will the public react?
Peter A - Well back to your 3/1 #2812 - Sorry for the misunderstood response. I believe that panic and stock market are often synonymous. They, the marketeers, like to overreact to just about anything. (Breathing stops when Greenspan speaks.) I believe the panic will occur as you stated. Slow simmer to a full boil, so to speak. Good point about sitting at the feet of the Wright Bros. We often just need to ask oneself, I just need to ask my wife! Ha! Well, back to my daily reading. Thanks.
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 20:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2893)
Gold Recall
Did I miss it or is there NO update to the gold recall (exchange for paper) in India? Anybody?
SteveH
(03/02/1999; 20:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2894)
Good read and must understand from Rhody...
...thanks JA for spot post. Was on but must have got sidetracked. Was fun watching gold rise today.


Date: Tue Mar 02 1999 17:32
rhody (@ BillD: The demand increased. How do I know?) ID#413307:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In every case where 1 month lease rates increased while
3,6, and 12 month rates held steady or decreased, spot POS
was hit by short selling the next day. This has happened in
virtually every instance. It's the pattern, not the mere
backwardation that is significant. The pattern is one month
goes up, and silver is hit next day. EVERYTIME.

This week is Biblical as an example of this phenomena.
One month lease rose 3% yesterday morning. Look what happened
to spot yesterday and today! EVERYTIME!

Sorry to be so late in answering. Rhody
SteveH
(03/02/1999; 20:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2895)
April gold now $288.00
argghh!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 21:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 2896)
JA----gold, and what it weighs
The easiest manner in which to deal with weights is to train yourself to ALWAYS think metric. A tonne is a tonne is a tonne. One Million Grams.
(you are right, there are 12 troy ounces per troy pound, and while a troy ounce weighs more than a standard ounce, the standard pound with its 16 little ounces weighs more than a troy pound)--so stick with metric and you'll never go wrong. All you need to remember is that there are 31.103 grams in a troy ounce.

Doing the math reveals there to be 32,151 troy ounces per tonne. One tonne of gold occupies about two cubic feet (1'x1'x2' in dimension) Cost of storage is not a problem. Cost of security...IS!! Why? Because it is GOLD!!!!!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 22:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2897)
COMEX follow up for JA
Sorry I neglected the end of your message.
The total COMEX inventories would be about 23 tonnes. If stored efficiently, the gold would occupy a space 10 feet by 10 feet by 4 to 5 feet high. A large walk-in closet would accommodate the volume.
Divided up equally among all U.S. residents, each person would get almost one-tenth of a gram, or in other terms, less than three-thousandths of a troy ounce.
POOF! All gone. Rather puts it all in perspective doesn't it?
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 22:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2898)
Sir Richard
I'll keep watch from the tower in that direction. This is not so much a gold recall as it is a scheme to get the gold savings out of the hands of the people (in exchange for interest bearing bonds) and put the gold into the hands that know what value means. I doubt the initiative will be that popular, as these people already know wherein the value lies. That is why they have the gold in the first place.
JA
(03/02/1999; 23:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 2899)
Stranger
Sorry' I don't always read my message before I hit sent and my fingers tend not to always put the "r" in your.
JA
(03/02/1999; 23:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2899)
Stranger
Yes, I had a great time and real nice visit with family. The weather was sunny and beautiful both Saturday and Sunday. It must have been a beautiful day on the mountain. Based on one of your previous posts, I had decided you timing in terms of equities investments is very good. Now I have decided you timing in picking ski days is very good as well. I have been skiing here in Idaho twice this year and both days it snowed all day with high winds at the top of the mountain.
I grew up in Utah but I don't believe Deer Valley was around back then, there was Alta, Brighton, and Park City and a few others.
I read in the paper while down there about Clinton's visit. I asked my brother why the governor didn't have him arrested for the major land grab in southern Utah just prior to the last election. An alternative would have been to call out the national guard and tell him he could refuel his plane but then would have to move on because Utah didn't want sex offenders running lose on it's ski slopes.


Town Crier

Looks like we are on the same wavelength, I went in to post this just as I saw your most recent post.

Your more precise measurements tell me that it's more like 23 tons of gold and it not only would fit in my garage, but it would actually fit in a small corner of my garage. It just doesn't sound like much gold in terms of the total scheme of things. In fact 731,046 ounces valued at $300 per ounce is only 219 million dollars worth. But then from what I have been reading here and other sites, apparently huge amounts of paper gold are being traded independent of the futures exchanges. The futures exchanges seem to be where the price gets manipulated. It is easy to see how that may be possible with such small amounts.
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 23:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2900)
Dipsters and Day Traders
The Hobbits and I have been surfing the hotlinks of the five million "Daytraders" and have seen that their charts are all starting to look "a little topheavy" to the guru, and "scalping" the high flyers for a one point profit during the day, is now the name of the game. Soon their chances at Russian Roulette may have the same odds. The crystal ball is unusually dark and cloudy now, small flashes of light are spasmodically emitted. Like ANOTHER said, "We shall watch this gold market together, Yes?"
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2901)
Hear ye! Hear ye! Hear ye! Now appearing at The Gilded Opinion...
Supplies Tighten Further, Rationing Begins by James Turk / Freemarket Gold & Money Report
...A recent memorandum from the US Mint to the distributors of American Eagle Gold and Silver bullion coins tells the whole story. To prepare their distributors for the bad news about rationing coming later in the memorandum, it starts out with a few statistics to justify their statement that the demand for coins is "unprecedented". The memorandum states that: "During the first six months of calendar year 1998, average monthly sales of American Eagle Gold Bullion coins were in the range of 96,500 ounces per month. The second half of the year, sales climbed to an average of 210,000 ounces per month. Sales in January 1999 alone were 266,500 ounces."..."Until our supply of American Eagle Gold and Silver coins exceeds the demand, we regret that we will need to go to an allocation system." Call it what you will, that means rationing.

Follow the links from the USAGOLD Home Page to access this very important report.
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2902)
Y2K -- It's not just for breakfast anymore.
U.N. Official: Arab States Not Ready For Y2k Bug
01:47 a.m. Mar 01, 1999 Eastern

... U.N. officials said airports, Egypt's Suez Canal and electricity networks could be hit and the highly-computerized oil refining and water desalination plants of the arid, oil-rich Gulf states were particularly at risk.
"If they should stop, then millions of people would have no power and no water to drink. This is the biggest challenge facing our region," he said...

See it all-- (better use Cut&Paste for this one!)--
http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a0235rittz-19990227&qt=y2k&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 2903)
China to Maintain Stable Currency--Zhu
...China's foreign exchange reserves reached a massive $145 billion at the end of last year, roughly equal to the country's overseas debts...
"We want to implement a steady monetary policy, appropriately increase money supply, grasp a strong level of financial control and adjustment and maintain stability in the value of the renminbi (yuan)," Zhu says.
One of the chief financial tasks this year will be to raise China's ability to repay foreign debt, he says, but gave no details...

Now I KNOW you want details. Find them here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/ct.html
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 02:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2904)
Japan Pushes Down Overnight Rates Near Zero [shades of A. Lincoln's greenbacks]
...Japan's central bank today added 400 billion yen ($3.32
billion) to the banking system, helping push down the overnight
loan rate between banks as low as 0.02 percent, below the
central bank's target level of 0.15 percent.
"The overnight call rate slipped to zero and they
indicated there will be more easing in monetary policy...
More yen supplied by Japan's central bank typically reduces
the currency's value, helping Japanese exporters while making
imports more expensive.
"Many people want to buy dollars because of speculation
Japan may further ease its monetary policy..."

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Oooo, paper and fire...a bad combo! Try to catch this story before it gets bumped from Top Financial News--
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 02:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2905)
The Heavyweight weighs-in...today's markets likely to react?
Billionaire Buffett sees danger in stock market

2.10 a.m. ET (0710 GMT) March 3, 1999
WASHINGTON � Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Tuesday the U.S. stock market had seen virtually unprecedented increases in recent years and was in a "dangerous" period that could see stock values drop sharply.

Stocks had risen "terrifically" over the past 15 years, driven higher by lower interest rates and rising return on equity, Buffett told the ABC News "Nightline" program.

"After a while the very act of stocks going up starts drawing in other people who get excited about the fact that their neighbor made some money ... and that's when you get into the dangerous periods," he said...

Pulling no punches at--
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0303/f_rt_0303_8.sml
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 04:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2906)
JA, I'm awake...
April gold now $287.80...whoops .90.

USAGOLD
(03/03/1999; 09:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2907)
Today's Gold Market Report: A Mexican Standoff at COMEX and the New Japanese Zero
MARKET UPDATE (3/3/99): Gold gave up most of its early gains in yesterday's session by end of day when silver nosedived due to heavy hedge fund selling. The fact that COMEX gold stocks came down another 64,257 ounces after the close yesterday did not seem to affect trading this morning except possible to put the bears in a cautious mind-set.

Hence the market is at a Mexican stand-off at the moment with bears defending what appears to be $290 ceiling and the bulls buying in what FWN yesterday called "massive" amounts
around the $287 mark. Bridge reported the following yesterday: "Traders said the move up today was not surprising after Monday's commitment's report revealed that hedgers/commercials held a huge 71,812 net-long position while speculators were at a 52-week peak at 70,065 net-short. Traders said they believe these extremes could portend a long overdue bullish move."

"There's no smoking gun as to why gold is up," said one trader, noting that gold has held up quite well despite a stronger dollar and stock market. "It's quite resilient." "The fundamentals are favoring precious metals," added an analyst. "In general, things are getting more positive." The trading range has narrowed considerably -- an indicator that we may see a breakout.

The dollar was higher against the yen this morning after a key Japanese interest rate sank to near zero. The interest rate drop was the direct result of the Bank of Japan flooding the money markets with cash, according to an early Reuters report this morning.

Silver lease rates came down slightly prompting yesterday's sell-off as well as weakness in today's early going.

That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting happens. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals.

Ask for Marie. Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet.
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 09:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2908)
Money & Market Matters
FX IN EUROPE - Yen fades on cue against dollar (Reuters 3/3/99)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/tw.html

National savings boost must be key goal-Greenspan (Reuters 3/3/99)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/rb.html

Greenspan repeats Social Security warning-
Investing in stocks won't help nation care for retirees (CBS 3/3/99)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/capitol.htx?dist=hdlnbug&source=blq/yhoo

Treasury prices retreat (CBS 3/3/99)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 10:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2909)
Gold in the News
London--Mar 3--UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown today restated
the UK government's support for a range of enhanced debt relief measures
for the world's poorest nations, including the sale of at least US $1
billion worth of IMF gold...Story .15281

London--Mar 3--Merrill Lynch analyst William O'Neill believes any sales of
gold by the International Monetary Fund would be "parceled out at a slow
pace that would probably not disturb the market."
"It is our view that IMF gold sales are overrated as a negative factor
for gold and other than their psychological impact, we do not see such
sales as a meaningful price influence," he said. Merrill pegs the range
over the next 60 days between $280 and $300. By Elise Shaw, Bridge News,
Story .14826

Johannesburg--Mar 2--South African gold producer Anglogold said today that
it had revised down its output forecast for the first quarter of 1999 to 52
tons of gold from the 55 tons it had expected to produce...By I-Net Bridge, Story .15721

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 13:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2910)
Test
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 13:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2911)
Closing N.Y. Metals -- FWN
Funds Sell Silver; Gold Little Changed
140242 GMT
New York-March 3-FWN--Silver futures continued to
retreat today on additional fund selling, sources here
said. Platinum also finished lower as it continues to
correct from a recent rally, while palladium eased in the
midst of a consolidation.
On the surface, gold appears to be uneventful,
finishing with a tiny gain despite the weakness in rest of
the complex. But one analyst wondered whether this just
might be the "calm before the storm," with gold possibly
getting set up for a short-covering rally.
Following Tuesday's weaker close and a soft start
today, several traders have pointed to fund selling--a view
reiterated by Tim Evans, senior commodities analyst with
Pegasus Econometrics.
May silver lost 7.8 cents to $5.2450.
He said the long liquidation was foreseeable in light
of the build-up of long positions by the reportable non-
commercial category.
"In effect, the funds were loaded to the gills with
silver," he said. "They were holding larger long positions
than they had during February of 1998, when the market
topped out at $7.50."
The key question for the market, said Evans, is whether
funds will completely liquidate or simply lighten up on
their positions, perhaps allowing silver a chance to recoup
some of its losses.
Despite the fall in silver, April gold held its own,
finishing with a slight gain of 30 cents to $288.30.
"Gold is churning sideways here," said Evans. "But
while it looks like nothing is going on, I think there is
potential here that this is the calm before the storm."
The most recent Commitment of Traders data showed that
funds have increased their net short position, he pointed
out. "That both cushions the downside and creates greater
upper potential on short covering."
While it's hard to forecast what might prompt a short-
covering rally, Evans pointed out that one possible trigger
could be the stock market. The cash S&P 500 index is
currently hovering not far above key support of 1,217, said
Evans. If this fails, some investors may opt to sell stocks
and buy gold, he continued.
Near-term resistance for April gold lies at Tuesday's
$290.50 high, followed by the Feb. 12 high of $292 and Feb.
2 high of $292.60.
"If we can get through this--and it's not that far
away--that basically means everybody who sold over the last
six weeks is now out of the money," said Evans. "At that
point, I think you have potential for a rally on the order
of $20 to $30."
He put support at last week's $286.50 low, the $285 low
of Feb. 16 and $284 low of Jan. 28. If these were to fail,
said Evans, he suspects any further downward move will be
limited because so many players are already heavily
short.
"I see potential we could get to a number like $283 or
$283.50 and have the market come right back up in our face,
because the market is heavily short here and will probably
only be able to attract a minor amount of incremental
selling."
A further indication that gold has some underlying
strength is the minimal amount of selling that has occurred
over the last couple of days while silver was "hit over the
head," said Evans.
"Gold is holding up well in an environment where the
other precious metals are under pressure," he said.
Furthermore, he said, gold might benefit from short
covering in silver that may now be possible after the
liquidation in this metal.
(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 15:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2912)
Goldman Sachs gearing up for a retry at an IPO
Think about it...
What clearer signal for a market top could you ask for? If anyone would have a sense for the ballpark, Goldman Sachs would. And naturally, they would essentially ring the bell and cash out. Food for thought. (I'd tend to say they are too late) ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 15:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2913)
News for the Bond Watchers. See esp. Argentina.
Treasurys hit by fear
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

Argentina would cash in US bonds if adopts dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/bat.html
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 18:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2914)
April gold now (down slightly) at
$287.70.

Just got done with my daily read.

Conclusion: Stock market is having trouble holding its own. Metropolecafe predicting a gold rally soon. Canola oil is made from the rape seed and that is what just happened to silver prices (raped). Greenspan warns of not putting money social security money into equities. ABC news things Gavleston, TX is doing right by not being in equities. Fed. study shows that people who make over 50K per year wouuld do better than those under 26K. Armstrong stings silver. Kaplan predicted drop in silver by COT estimates. Silver may be v- bottoming and Midas thinks this is a smoke screen to take attention away from a tightening gold market. Gold pundits are predicting a $20-30 move in the POG shortly. Goldman S. is breaking wind with rumors of an IPO and are rumored to be going long gold and looking for 25 million ounce of yellow. Mint has delivered over 98K ounces of Silver Eagles in first two days of March. One respected predictor of markets thinks VSE and gold are about to soar. Speaking of Soros, he thinks markets are overvalued and Greenspan warns of late-life investors to not take risks in Internet stocks. Silver lease rates are still high but golds are low. COT on gold is strong bullish in favor of gold as commercials are long with over 70K contracts and shorts 70k contracts: perfect situation for $30 runup. Mining juniors are holding their own on the VSE as they continue to remain steady or slightly up in face of a falling dow. Some think inflation is high and hidden in the stock market bubble. Panic index or whatever it is called is a -10 and usually pre-dates a market crash or large drop by two weeks. Other than that not much else going on. Did I miss anything?

And gold went to $287.90 while we were talking.

Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 18:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2915)
Please take the following with a grain of salt.
From: lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com
To: Gandalf the White
Subject: Bulletin !!! Major Gold Rally Imminent !!!
Date: Wednesday, March 03, 1999 1:15 PM


Le Metropole members,

A major gold rally is about to unfold. Our intelligence
network has informed us that the Asian official sector has,
indeed, been stepping up to the plate again and has been a buyer of physical gold. That is the reason the gold market has not collapsed under the weight of all the spec gold borrowings and short selling that has hit the market. The Asians love to buy on weakness and have been doing so with great stealth. The reason that the price of gold is going to ROAR UP any day now is that some producers have become very concerned about all this talk about collusion with
the bullion banks and are in the process of covering
hedges, to take on this gold borrowing and spec crowd.
These specs and gold borrowers are now massively short.
On Comex alone the large specs are net short 70,000
contracts. The OTC spec short position is many times that.
These mining companies are becoming increasingly nervous
about too close an association with the forces that are
holding down the price of gold.

The timing of this bull attack is imminent. A clue to all
of this is the plunge in the silver price. Why is silver tanking when the 1m silver lease rate is still at 7.5%. The gold lease rate is less than 1% for comparison's sake. We are assuming the "buyers" that we are talking about have some heavy gold tonnage to buy. The gold market is asleep. A way to create cover to buy gold in size without any "bells and "whistles" going off, is to crap out silver. That only brings on more demoralization in the precious metals arena and distracts market participants from noticing
the gold accumulation of the buyer. If we are correct,
the price of silver will go right back up again after
the buyers have finished their gold buying
( or short covering ) as they buy back their silver
short positions.

Goldman Sachs ( coincidentally ) has been a big gold
buyer this past week. I wonder why? They just went
on a road show to South Africa proclaiming their bearish
market outlook. Of course, they could be buying for a
client. What is important is that they are buying in size.
We suggest they know a change of short term strategy
is now being orchestrated. They are booking profits
on their short positions for their own account and, or,
for client accounts, before the avalanche of other
specs cover when the gold price breaches the $290 to $292
area to the upside. The price of gold could easily shoot
up to $315 as a result of a powerful short covering
rally.

We have been told by very well informed sources from
around the world that GATA is actually having some effect
in that we have raised the awareness level about
"collusive activities" in the gold market. This has
caused many uncomfortable questions to be asked.
The heat is on.

The gold price has turned up in foreign currency terms.
Often, that is a precursor of an upturn in the gold
price in dollars. Last September, Midas du
Metropole called on David Niven, James Darren,
Gregory Peck and Anthony Quinn to take out The
Guns of Navarone resistance at $290. They were our hereos
then as the bears were routed. We call them back
again and also have thrown in Indiana Jones and
Shaka, the great Zulu warrior, to help them.

So Be It !!!!

All the best,
Midas
=========
*****pick and choose the correct items and get rid of the chaf, and one will be ok. This may be considered to be advertising to the Sheeple and Dipsters --- Hope it works !
<;-)




Richard, Oregon
(03/03/1999; 19:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 2916)
Just talk!
MK- Nice look to the page although I'll miss the gold coin (in your face!)

TownCrier- (3/2 #2898) Yes, I know it's not a recall. I guess I was just trying to be nice and NOT call it a scheme. True, a scheme is a scheme and a thief is a thief. Why do I do that?

Rascal- (3/2 #2877) you are a "Thankful Dude! I honest could NOT of stated it better. Thanks for the words.
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 21:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2917)
If cries of gold is going to go boom is any indicator...
of the near-term price of gold then look at above. Reading tonight sure did raise the willies in the small of kneck regarding everyone thinking gold is going to rocket. Frankly, I am tired of too many false alarms. Let's get this straight for the record. If you think gold is going boom up, then tell us why, not just that it is going boom up. Answer these questions: why now and not last month or next month, do we get a penalty shot if you are wrong or just hold future opinions along with grains of salt in our pockets. If gold is going to go boom, tell us why, tell us when, and tell us what happens if it doesn't (first born child, next Elton John concert tickets, what?). Ok?!

BTW, how far do you think it is going to go up?

got humor!

Hey, I like the one about the right of bears to arm or was that the right to bare arms, or ... ;-)
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 21:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2918)
Aristotle needs an education
(First let me say to SteveH--'Great commentary!')

Somebody please take me to school. In Gandalf's recent post was the line, "On Comex alone the large specs are net short 70,000 contracts."
Can ANYONE attempt to explain that? For each Futures Contract entered, isn't it true that BOTH a buyer AND a seller have been anonymously paired in filling the order? Otherwise you are left with merely Open Interest. It is here that maybe some insight can be gleaned as to whether more would-be buyers lie in wait below the current Contract price, or more would-be sellers are perched in wait for the Contract to reach a higher price.
So, for each filled contract, a buyer and seller are paired one-to-one, and it is with them in which the counter-party risk lies. Want gold? Trust a stranger to deliver? I don't know what the rate is for the Gold Contracts specifically, but for Futures Contracts in general fewer than 2% actually result in the transfer of goods. The bulk are 'neutralized' or offset through filling a second contract that carries the opposite obligation...again, paired one-to-one with a counter-party. Where do we get "net short" on COMEX? Or is the operative word "specs", which means they are the only sellers to be found in this market, and when they seek to offset by turning into Contract buyers, there will be no other sellers to be found, and the new Contract price will make us all flash our pearly-whites?

Professor?? Your student awaits enlightenment. ---Aristotle
ET
(03/03/1999; 22:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2919)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - I'm an old futures trader so maybe I can help you. Traders are divided into three categories for reporting purposes; large speculators, commercials, and small traders. I believe it's still the case that the specs and commercials have to report their positions every two weeks. When it is said the specs are net short 70,000 contracts it means that as of the last reporting period there were 70,000 more contracts sold short than bought long amongst the total group of large speculators. Example for clarification; 50,000 contracts long, 120,000 contracts short. Many traders tend to watch what the large specs are doing and the trend of their position. It is their belief that the large specs tend to 'call' any impending change in trend. If the net short position were to change to net long in the next reporting period, many would consider this to be very bullish. Generally the bulk of the positions are held by the specs and the commercials, the small traders making up a small percentage of all contracts. This info is contained in a report called 'Commitment of Traders'. Hope this helps.

ET
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 23:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 2920)
ET--you are the man of the hour.
This element was news to me--"Traders are divided into three categories for reporting purposes; large speculators, commercials, and small traders." Thanks.

You can see from my post I originally thought the reporter was driving at COMEX having a "net short" bias, and after I talked my way through it, it dawned on me that maybe the focus was not so much on the "shortness of COMEX" (ha ha) but rather upon the position of the beast they were calling the large speculators. You, good Sir, confirmed my final suspicion, and I learned someting important--that the traders are categorized and monitored. So would you agree with me that the proper interpretation is that gamblers are selling and stable entities are buying?

"Squire! Saddle up fresh horses. I owe ET a pint at the pub." ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 23:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2921)
Final test
night all
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 23:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2922)
Aristotle's question
In addition to ET's fine answer, you might be interested in reading S.J.Kaplan's daily comments at WWW.goldminingoutlook.com were he bases much of his prognostications on the COT reports of which ET speaks. Thanks ET, please share more of your prior training with us.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 00:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2923)
THIS WEEK IN GOLD ***COMMENTARY FROM THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL***
Hear ye! Hear Ye!

George Milling-Stanley's WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (February 22 - February 26, 1999) has been delivered. Please follow the links via the USAGOLD Home Page to "This Week in Gold."
Items discussed are Chairman Geenspan's comment regarding gold as an inflation indicator; speculative short-selling on COMEX; India's many gold maneuvers; gold imports to Dubai; and Russian gold mining.
el St.One
(03/04/1999; 01:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2924)
Prophecies
Nostradamus: One of his visions, per an old USA Gold Letter, calls for a shortage of two metals between April and March is this the year? ( yes April and March)
SteveH
(03/04/1999; 03:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2925)
April gold STILL $287.60...
on the reading and tube front:

Monica was perky (perhaps too), great teeth, too much hair spray, intelligent, but somehow missed the "I shall not covet they neighbor's husband who is the President - 101" class. Also somewhat Naive at the beginning but now a millionaire and still Naive but at least she can pay her legal bill. Showed her lover as a smoothie with the act of seduction down to a T, but lacking in committment and honor. Said she became pregnant at some point but didn't recall if it was a 'first-child' (do recall that she didn't have interc...se though or sex, as she put it). Anyway abortion won.

Pres. was on C-Span just before Monica. Told Demos that country needed to pay down debt and save Medicare and SS with surplus. No argument here. Should have paid it down years ago. Paying down debt is right thing to do and Y2K friendly -- what is 50 billion dollars divided into 5 trillion, hmmm?

Silver might see a few more down days but generally per one pundit, "usually goes down three then up a bit." Today is day three.

Heard SA gold stocks are enjoying a few up days. How 'bout gold? OR, do we merely view the SA up-swing as an early indicator? That's what it is, an early indicator.

Long-term bonds -- I recall -- closed with a tad-higher rate yesterday. Isn't this an inflationary risk factor kind of thing?

Well, time for the gold-up-near-term-crowd to prove things right (for once) today. Good luck.

AEL
(03/04/1999; 06:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2926)
Y2K, cash, and the electronic economy

This is from one of the Y2K chat boards. Interesting. Any comments?

The following progression of events is essentially
inevitable now, simply based on the poll-recorded (facts!) percentages of people who say they will withdraw all or most of their bank accounts. Following is y2k best we can hope for (i.e. it may be worse, this is only 1999 stuff!):

- over 5% of population attempt to empty their accounts
- not enough cash to cover
- Clinton orders bank holiday
- demonetization of cash, you have until 1999-nn-nn to turn it in
- transition to all-electronic economy
- outcome branch: either y2k "road warrior" or electronic/fed
slave state, depending on how bad the code really turns out to be in 1999.

The above is now inevitable.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.
T. Remital
(03/04/1999; 07:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2927)
pardon me boy!!!
This could be a historic day ..the train just started to move..the last[ all aboard sounded ]..
this will be along journey upwards into the next century with many stops along the way to take
on more pasengers..
Aristotle
(03/04/1999; 07:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2928)
Good back-to-back posts
It would seem that AEL's post is the Cause, and T.Remital's post is the Effect. In anticipation of the 'human element' preceeding Y2K, and whatever follows, we can almost be sure of one thing...a proliferation of new RULES. Who can know what operational system the banks will adopt to get through this? One thing also is undeniable...the government's simple solution to nearly every problem is to try to throw money at it. What would that do to the value of the dollar? The only way to exercise a measure of control over your liquid wealth is to hold it in the form of gold. That much seems clear. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/04/1999; 07:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2929)
wow
The 30-yr T-Bond responded to the open of trade with a yield that spiked up to 5.719%. Somebody felt the need to unload.

Meanwhile, gold is on a race to the upside. Has anyone wondered why dollar/gold oz stays near $286.5 during trading around the world, and always makes its moves during New York trading? Check out the graph.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 08:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2930)
Today's Gold Market Report: Quiet Day, Market Guru Says Gold on Launchpad
MARKET UPDATE (3/4/99): Gold tracked sideways this morning as the euro descended the depths of hell. The dollar hit a three month high versus the yen. The ECB said it would leave rates alone so as not to send the euro into a fatal swoon. All in all, a bearish environment for the gold, yet it continues to hold its own in a very narrow range.

Top U.S. market timer and "Timer of the Year", Don Wolanchuk, in an interview at Stockhouse.com (Thank you, Stockhouse.com, for passing along your interview along with
your kind note.) said that "Gold will set an all-time high."

"In my view, " said Wolanchuk who has become something of a legend for his market calls, "gold has finished a 17-year bear market. It's ready to blast off....Everybody hates gold and all the metals and all the commodities. You can't have a bottom until everybody is out. And everybody is out of the gold sector." Wolanchuk goes on to say that inflation will be back and that gold we one of the greatest beneficiaries along with other natural resources and resource stocks. I am seeking permission from Stockhouse to reproduce the interview in full at the Gilded Opinion.

That's it for today. It has been generally a quiet morning with little in the way of news. We will update if anything interesting happens. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie. Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet.
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 09:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2931)
Gold-related trivia/news from around the world
Ottawa--Mar 3--Canada's international reserves fell US $1.09 billion in February to US $22.355 billion, the Finance Department reported today. Reserves a year earlier totaled US $21.310 billion. Official government operations increased reserves by $258 million. Gold holdings remained at 2.5 million ounces. Bridge News, Story .4821

Tokyo--Mar 4--Spot gold prices held above US $286 per ounce despite the stable US dlr/yen during the Asia trading time, while expectations of a further decline in the silver market also discouraged players from buying gold, dealers said. Spot palladium was weaker following the overnight tumble in the US market, but dealers hadn't changed bullish forecasts. Story .2200

Hong Kong--Mar 4--The US dollar continued its recent hop-skip-and-jump against the Japanese yen, managing to chalk up gains of more than 1 yen for the second consecutive day in Asia. The pair marked another high for the week at 122.78 with market players citing option-related levels and continued general uncertainty surrounding a recovery in Japan as directing the day's trade. The strong US dollar kept the euro under the gun after a heavy overnight session. By Paul Scanlon, Bridge News, Story .700

Johannesburg--Mar 4--South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange all-share index was up half a percentage point at midday as good institutional demand from both local and offshore players dominated the market. At 1200 local (1000 GMT) the JSE all-share index was 0.49% better and the all-gold index surged by 2.19%. By Tim Smart, I-Net Bridge, Story .1162

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/04/1999; 10:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2932)
test
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 10:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2933)
Y2K perspective that may prove useful to you. The more you know...
Beware the after shocks
http://www.brw.com.au/newsadmin/stories/brw/19990301/1359.htm

The Psychology of Anxiety and the Y2K Issue
http://www.bankinfo.com/year2000/anxiety.html

Combating Customer Paranoia . . . Before the Year 2000
http://www.bankinfo.com/year2000/paranoia.html
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 10:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2934)
****A CONTEST IS CALLED****HEAR YE! HEAR YE! TO THE CASTLE! A CONTEST IS CALLED*****
On the ramparts a loan figure can be seen pacing
His figure cut 'cross the leaden sky
Cape and hair blowing in the wind
one hand gripping his sheathed sword
the sun sets hidden 'hind a bank of clouds
evening draws and the hall is now brightened
within Elsinore's walls...
His gaze moves toward the infinite horizon
His troubled eyes cloak nothing
His careworn voice still firm but concerned:

"To Y2K or not to Y2K that is the question
Whether 'tis nobler in mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of power plant blackouts
And phones that do not ring and water that does not run
Or make preparations against them? To store: to bottle;
What next? And by a cache of gold to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks that assets
are heir to, 'tis a balance devoutly to be wished.

To prepare or not to prepare: Ay there's the rub;
For in preparation we find consolation; or do we?
For it is in the acts of our fellows that this web is spun around us
and nations beyond our grasp.
When we stop to look around us, must give us pause
That gives us calamity anew and not time enough to fend it
For who would bear the whips and scorns of computer breakdown
without a proper shield.
There is more to this than meets the crafty eye
some tangles that need discussion....."

This lonely, knightly figure moves off rampart to the warmth of the hall
where the knights and ladies have gathered near the table round.

"What say you of preparations? Of computers and assets lost.
Do we make our move now? Or do we wait for Winter solstice?
It is true that we can earn interest on our Treasury, or we can lose it all
in the flash of an electrode."

"So how prepare you? Or do you prepare at all?
Bonus points will be awarded for those who find interest
in the unforeseen event, for it seems as time moves forward
It is not the one time event that will haunt us
but the army of events that follow in the New Year's wake.
Will this be the year we face our sea of troubles or
The year when Christ and his saints slept (to steal a comely title)."

-----------------------------------------
So we call a Contest at this Table Round of posting at the FORUM -- posts confined to the topic above. You can speak whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends and.......Remember, Hamlet's tragic flaw was to hesitate to his ultimate demise. So knights and ladies, do not yourself hesitate!

Let the contest begin.

And in closing, the words of the Bard (one of the most famous passages in all of literature from the same play):

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry,
This above all: to thine ownself be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.

A tough guideline to follow in this age of debt, but there's wisdom here nevertheless. Onward, my fellow knights and goldmeisters. To borrow the phrase of our own missing bard:
"We watch this new gold market together, yes!" And.......We honor him with a seat kept empty at this table round in hope of his timely return. MK
Usul
(03/04/1999; 11:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2935)
Prophecies
Pr�s loing defaut de deux grands luminaires,
Qui surviendra entra l'Avril et Mars:
O quel chert�! Mais deux grands d�bonnaires
Par terre et mer secourront toutes pars.

- Nostradamus, Century III, Quatrain 5

In English:

Shortly after the shortage of the two metals
which will occur between April and March,
how expensive life will become! But two heads of state of noble birth
will bring help by land and sea.
Usul
(03/04/1999; 11:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2936)
Prophecies- April and March?
el St.One:- Your point about April and March, as opposed
to March and April, is interesting; does this mean, for
example, April 1999 to March 2000? Or is Nostradamus
simply contriving to rhyme March (of course, the original
rhyme is lost on translation to English). Nevertheless,
Nostradamus could conceivably have written a different
verse in rhyme had he intended to stress March to April.
I am inclined to favour March to April, perhaps meaning
that the shortage of metals will begin in this time period,
duration unknown.
A surprising number of Nostradamus verses have been
correlated with real historical events. However, not all
of them by any means and some of them seem incorrect.
So, let us keep an open mind, it will be interesting if the
current gold shortage at the US mint turns into something
on a grander scale in the next two months, but that
isn't meant to be investment advice.
Gold Dancer
(03/04/1999; 11:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2937)
Usul
Great post. I am inclined to take it exactly as stated.
April 1999 to March 2000 if only because that is what the
gold stock charts are telling me: The South African golds
up into March to May of 2000. This is going to be interesting to say the least. I do think we are getting closer by the week to blast off. It looks like this month
is recovery and April is blast off on the gold stocks. Your
or rather Nostra's prediction fits into this.

Lets be a little more patient; the gold party is about
to begin in earnest.

Of course I have thought this before and been wrong but
I still own all my gold etc. and even managed to move some
money around the markets into more RANGY at under $2. So
all has not been lost and the future is coming......

Go Gold and Go GATA.

Thanks, Gold Dancer

USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 12:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 2938)
Correction
'twould be nice if understood the uses of the words "lone" and "loan".....Oh boy. Try to ignore it......
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2939)
Know Your Customer' gete Judiciary hearing
WASHINGTON,DC--Thursday,March 4,will be a big day on Capitol Hill for those concerned about the proposed"Know Your Customer"rules,which have generated more than 140,000 opposition comments(with only 120 in support)to the federal agencies. These rules would force banks to spy on their customers and strip away the Fourth and Fifth Amendment protection of the U.S. Constitution.

At 10 am, the House Judiciary Committee's subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law will hold a hearing on the "Know Your Customer"regulations.Rep. Ron Paul(R,TX)will be testifying against the rules in support of his legislation,HR516,which would stop the proposed rules.His legislation already has the bipartisan support of 40 cosponsors.

Also on Thursday,the committee on Banking and Financial Services will begin work on HR10,which deals with financial modernization.Rep. Paul,along with Rep. Tom Campbell(R,Calif.)will introduce an amendment that would stop the"Know Your Customer" rules and prevent federal agencies from ever attempting such a move in the future.The amendment in the Banking Committee may be referred to as"Amendment 8."

Rep. Paul is a member of the Committee on Banking and Financial Services and was the first Member of Congress to speak in opposition to "Know Your Customer."

Reprinted without anybody's permission.

IMHO as I said on this forum a few months ago Rep Paul is a strong advocate for back to the Gold Standard,last presidential election nominated by the Libertarian Party for President,and my choice right now,for President in 2001.I think he would be the one to put things back together after Y2K...................beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2940)
(No Subject)
TEST
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2941)
TEST
Unable to post.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 2942)
Unable to post
Test
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 2943)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 2944)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2945)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2946)
Unable to post
Test--------March 4,1999
Peter Asher
(03/04/1999; 13:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2947)
beesting
Hit "reload" after you post and don't see it onthe Forum page
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2948)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2949)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2950)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 2951)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2952)
Unable to post
Haven't been able to post for the last 2 hours.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 14:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2953)
Unable to post
Sorry about that all the posts came up at the same time on my computer.
Ron Pauls speech today can be seen at:http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec99/kyc-hearing-calsc.htm


Again very sorry about all the space taken!
JA
(03/04/1999; 14:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2954)
beesting
It looks to me like you are posting just fine. I think I did the some thing the other day. When you can't see your post, hit refresh so you are looking at the latest posts.

IMHO stands for what?
Jeff
(03/04/1999; 15:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2955)
Test
Testing the posting of messages.

IMHO is Internet slang for 'In My Humble Opinion'
SteveH
(03/04/1999; 15:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2956)
April gold
While y'all can't find your posts, gold just crossed the $290 barrier overseas. You heard it. $290!

I even show a spike on quote.com to $291 but didn't hold. Let's hope Murphy was right. Let's get this thing rocking and rolling.

kaaaching!
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 15:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2957)
Closing N.Y. Metals: FWN: 142110 GMT
Firmer; Silver Up Slightly After Sell Off

New York-March 4-FWN--The precious metals finished
slightly higher to higher here today, although the
complex was described as generally quiet.
May silver managed a 2.8-cent gain to $5.2730 after
having sold off from a Tuesday high of $5.58 to a Wednesday
low of $5.17.
"It was pretty quiet, but we're finishing the day up
slightly on a bounce from the major sell off of the last two
days," said Glenn Toth, vice president with Commodity
Resource Corp. "There is really no news to speak of."
April gold, meanwhile, added $1.20 to settle at $289.50
in a market that sources say is remaining range-bound.
"It doesn't want to go out of its range," said Toth.
"We're up a little bit, but still below the high of a couple
of days ago ($290.50 on Tuesday). It's pretty much range-
bound...but mostly sideways."
A couple of floor traders reported that Goldman, Sachs
was a featured buyer again today and has been for a couple
of months now. One added that J. Aron was also a featured
buyer.
Toth put support for April gold at $286, with
resistance at $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
HopeingII
(03/04/1999; 16:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2958)
COMEX Gold
Down a further 69,150 oz as per a post
from KITCO. I did not verify.That's almost
200,000 oz in 4 days.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 16:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2959)
Closing COMEX Gold Inventory report
The COMEX Gold Depository at Scottia Mocatta was again the scene of much cursing and gnashing of teeth among goldbrick watchdogs. For the third time this week, they not only watched, but actually had to help move two tonnes of gold out the warehouse doors.
Today, the trend resumed after yesterday's one-day break. Over 69,118 troy ounces of Registered Gold inventory received marching orders from the owners. There was added excitement among the Eligible stocks when an exuberant 32 ounces were seen breaking ranks and leaving with their Registered brethren. One of the Daring Thirty-two, as they have come to be called, was heard to cry out as he passed through the heavy Scotia Mocatta doors, "The Sun! My God, I can see the Sun!"

The mood was more somber at Morgan Guaranty and Republic National, where guards saw to it that there was no similar exodus.

In total, the day started with 604,406 Registered ounces, and after the Registered stock at S.M. was reduced by HALF, the day ended with 535,288 ounces of Registered Gold all asking the not-so-rhetorical question, "When will I have my day in the sun?"
Reduced by the now legendary Daring Thirty-two, who proved that it pays to "Dream big, Grasshopper," the Eligible stock stands at a wistful 126,508 troy ounces. The movement represented nearly 10% of all COMEX gold inventory...leaving 661,796 hoping for a brighter tomorrow.

From the ever-more-spacious Scotia Mocatta vault, this is TownCrier warning you to "Keep your distance...they are likely to put you to work if you show up here tomorrow!"

Figures are courtesy of FWN and are used by permission. Commentary is a USAGOLD Round Table exclusive.
Richard, Oregon
(03/04/1999; 19:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2960)
Silver Prices in Mid 70s??
Mid 70s Silver/Gold Rush
Hey, can anyone give me some details on the silver price in the mid 70s?? I lived in Phoenix Az at the time and I remember seeing appliance ads(washer/dryer, etc.) in the paper for like $20-$60(??) in pre1964 quarters. I should of saved the ads, not into PMs at the time. Anybody know what years and do they recall similar ads?? Details??
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 19:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2961)
Merrill Lynch "Neutral" on Gold? What's Next? Also, Brazil Moves to Quell Inflation.
In the "You're Not Going To Believe This Category:

Merrill Lynch Goes from Negative to Neutral on Gold
New York--Mar 4--COMEX April gold futures settled up $1.20 at $289.50 per ounce, despite the dollar's jump to a 3-month high against the yen. Traders noted that one large trade house was a heavy buyer, which helped push gold to higher levels.
* * *
"It's one big player again. They have been the market and they are having their way with it," said one trader, noting that the company bought a tranche of 1,000 lots of gold at one point in today's session....

Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch, said that comments out of Switzerland, indicating that any gold reserve sales would not start until late 2000 or early 2001, were supported and have "alleviated some concerns."

It seems highly unlikely there will be significant European central bank sales and it's one reason why we've changed our rating in gold to neutral after having a negative rating for years," he said.

From Bridge News with permission. http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
-------------------------------

Brazil raises interest rates to 45% from 39% to stem inflation. (Bloomberg 3/4/99)
``Our role is to make sure price increases don't become permanent,'' said Arminio Fraga, a former fund manager for George Soros who now heads up Brazil's central bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&touch=1&T=markets_newsfeat99.ht&s=40052767

turbohawg
(03/04/1999; 19:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2962)
an excerpt ...
... from the InvesTech (Jim Stack) update tonight:

>As noted on Tuesday's hotline, inside research from a reliable source suggests that tomorrow's employment data will come out a LOT stronger than economists expect with over 350,000 new jobs created and the Unemployment Rate dropping to new lows. If so, it could mean a wild
Friday for both bonds and stocks. <

SteveH
(03/04/1999; 20:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 2963)
April gold now $289.40...
Ebay maple leaf with 2 hours to go:

1999 Mint Silver Maple Leaf Y2K 4 Eagle Lover
Item #71516380

Coins & Stamps:Coins:US:Gold




Currently
$11.50
First bid
8.00
Quantity
1
# of bids 5 (bid history) (with emails)
Time left 2 hours, 31 mins +


So who said silver is $5.21?

Reading: Today I learned COT still shows silver may go to 4.80 although it was up today a few cents. Gold showed a run up the upper bollinger came down to middle middle band and then rose again raising the upper bollinger in an upsweeping motion to then move sideways where it is now. Then somewhere in there someone bought something at $291 but nobody followed. I learned that China will probably devalue, Brazil may default, and Japan is looking to put a program in place to employ one million unemployed workers. Labor stats coming out tomorrow are likely to show a hotter than expected "low" employement rate meaning inflation is a danger. Long bond still flirting with highs or lows depending on if you mean rates or yields, but it is returning higher interest rates: meaning risk is being factored in. Gold is rising with the dollor are rising with the market. Crash index is a whopping -10 on a scale from I believe -10 to 10 where -10 means a crash is pretty much a foregone conclusion (like the China devaluation). Gold still likely to bounce and Merril Lynch has gone from negative to neutral on gold. Next thing won't you know, they will be saying the day's price increase beat expectations and then we know we have a ticket to the big game. VSE and VSE mining index were up for the day. The know your customer proposal by the FDIC will be undergoing a public hearing and is noted to have had over 140K negative letters or emails and only about 4 positive emails. Other than that not much else going on or is there? Peter, Gandalf, Aristotle, USAGOLD, and the rest of the pack what say you?

USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 20:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 2964)
Steve H....
Your summons serve as an excuse to get some things on the table resulting from today's activity, even though on the surface it seemed like pretty much a non-day.

I am struck with the fact that gold got clobbered at the $290-92 mark less than a month ago because of the heavy short selling by "one trader." Do you remember that? Some trader, presumably Goldman Sachs, "sold" 1000 contracts according to reports and killed what up til then had been a solid rally. Now we are told in tonight's Bridge report that that "one trader" had purchased 1000 contracts driving the market higher. In my mind there is very little question that it is the same firm filling its short it sold a few weeks earlier. The market serves up its own kind of retribution and there are those who respect that and read the bold handwriting now appearing on the wall.

At the same time I am intrigued with the large amount of gold moving out of COMEX warehouse stocks -- close to 200,000 ounces this week. This follows the first inverted market I have seen in gold in a decade -- at least the first that I noticed. What is going on? Somebody is taking delivery and that is perhaps what Merrill "We are now 'neutral on gold' Lynch and Goldmand Sachs have suddenly decided to react to. We heard from a top trader today that these deliveries are associated with the inverted market of last week.

I think we are in the midst of a sea change in the gold market, and though it is developing slowly, the signs are unmistakable. The insiders know it and that's why their public posture is changing.

At the same time, there is no doubt in my mind that the amount of education going on at this site (and others) as well as in a proliferation of newsletters has taken the public to the next level of understanding as to what is going on not just in the gold market but in "all" the markets. I was struck during the recent Greenspan testimony not just with the questions about gold manipulation, but also the questions about manipulation of the bond market as well. Isn't it extraordinary to you that these questions would be asked of a Fed chairman? It reflects how far the public has come -- how distrustful, indeed, how cynical in this highly amoral, cynical age.

A good section of the public would no more believe the press pablum that gold is held in a range because suddenly central banks were dumping it to pay their storage costs (as Mr. Greenspan would have us believe) than they would that the Federal Reserve was being run by alien force from Pluto.

The world is changing before our very eyes, Steve, and though some would choose to remain childlike in the face of it all hoping only that their credit card lines remain open, the stock market remain high and Friends not be taken off the air, there is a growing minority that understands that the country is in trouble -- morally, politically and economically.

Nuff said for one night. Keep the faith, gentle knight.

There is much excitement ahead of us.
Peter Asher
(03/04/1999; 20:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2965)
Steve
All I can add to your very well laid out scene is this. If "They" are going to coninue to launch "Counter Free Market Insurgecies" any more, it's now or never. It may be time for "Them" to go with the flow and ride the manipulation gravey train in a new direction. Just imagine Gold with these guys playing it to the upside.
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 20:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 2966)
News you can Use
Requires registration to FT.com/Financial Times (free). Go ahead, you'll do it eventually. Summaries are from the Crier.

HEADLINE--SUCRE: Government fails to halt slide

Ecuador's currency, the sucre, fell by 27 per cent yesterday...could it happen to you?
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q817d6.htm

HEADLINE-- JAPAN: Banks fear Y2K problems

Western banks are wary of exposure due to Japan's poor rating of Y2K compliance--in the third tier, fourth being the worst.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q804ba.htm

HEADLINE-- INDIA: Budget scheme to attract 'idle' gold

A voluntary "gold for interest-bearing paper scheme." Upon bond maturity the original weight of deposited gold is returned. A dubious scheme that is reminiscent of the U.S. Social Security program--redemptions dependent upon continuous deposits.
http://www.ft.com/search97cgi/vtopic?action=view&VdkVgwKey=%2Fapache%2Fdocs%2Fhippocampus%2Fq806d6%2Ehtm&DocOffset=1&DocsFound=174&QueryZip=%3CMany%3E%27gold%27&Collection=Coll2
Gandalf the White
(03/04/1999; 21:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2967)
Richard,Oregon --- Silver coins
If my memory is correct, twas 1981 when the Hunt Bro's made a try to corner the silver bullion market -- did very well until they tried to sell some and found that they were the only "buyers" around. Everyone else was pulling out the old sterling candle sticks and pre-'64 90% silver coins and selling them to the "melters". Silver coin offers moved up to the level just over 23 times face in the Seattle area. The Hobbits had been collecting the old silver dimes quarters and halves for years, and really went "allout" in the prior few months. They decided "NOW" was the time, and had me take in a "few" of those old heavy cloth Fed Reserve bags full of coins to the local buyer. He was an old time hockshop owner in the "Pike Street Market" that never had lost a dollar in his dealings. I knew him well as I had bought from him for years. Well that day the multiplier was 23 times face ! (THE high since that day long ago.) I emptied out the bags into his counting machine while he inspected the silver river flowing out of the stacks of coins. He smiled as he wrote out the check for $56,230., knowing that I would immediately take it to the bank on the corner, and bade me good luck. The next day the silver balloon popped and he never spoke to me again before he died. The Hobbits quickly determined that silver was not anything as good as GOLD and have been doing the same as the Comstock gold miners of the late 1800's and been tossing that grayish stuff out of their way for years. Memories !!
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 21:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2968)
Steve...and all
Let me add one more thing of which you are probably well aware of but please forgive me, if I state what already might be obvious. This is for the benefit of all posters and lurkers:

I learned very early in the gold trade that nothing in the fundamentals or technicals was as important as who was doing what to whom on a daily basis in the markets. That perhaps is what is so intriguing about them. Ultimately, the fundamentals and technicals come into play so they obviously cannot be ignored, but when you get up in the morning and head for that screen, it's a war and the traders know it, the moviemakers know it, and so do the people who are sincerely interested in understanding how these markets work.

We make certain that the FWN reports appear here at USAGOLD frequently and went out of our way to get permission to do so. Do you know why that is? You would never hear about Goldman Sachs being a big buyer of gold today from traditional sources because the general public could care less. But this means a great deal to those in the trade which make up the bulk of FWN's subscribers. So their report suddenly becomes valuable (watch their subscriptions go up tomorrow.) But it is valuable for one simple reason: It tells who is doing what to whom.

My concerns about gold manipulation going back for the past few years was based on this consideration. It was apparent that somebody was doing something to somebody, with gold acting as it was despite the fundamentals. So who, what and whom? It became a matter of flushing it out. We are now beginning to get some answers. As our understanding grows, the long bear market will recede.

We have built the foundation. Investors now know that gold is money and that it should be purchased for defensive purposes -- as a hedge. This was the theme of The ABCs of Gold Investing and that theme was arrived at after long and careful deliberation. This argument takes the wind out the shorts' propaganda. They can no longer tell us why gold isn't going to go up, because we no longer care. We simply want to survive the monetary nonsense being perpetrated against us.

More and more people everyday realize that they do not want to pay the price for the socialists' schemes. Now most can read Andy Smith's propaganda and understand it for what it is. This is not an objective market observor, but an analyst with an ax to grind. What's more many lay men could construct a viable opposing argument.

Are you beginning to see what I mean? Nothing....Nothing stands in the face of an idea whose day has come. And no amount of propaganda can overcome sound, intellectually arrived at understandings. We always knew it; we are just now beginning to see it in applied. I'm sure that with the advent of the internet, the proliferation of talk radio and other alternative media, other sacred cows will end up McDonald's fare.

Now I have said enough for one night. More some other time.
ET
(03/04/1999; 21:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2969)
Futures
Aristotle, GTW - if you have any questions about trading futures I'll be happy to advise. I've been trading them since 1987. Lost my ass the first couple of years but have done nicely since. I haven't been trading much other than the grains. There doesn't seem to be much logic in the markets right now. I don't expect the paper markets to go higher but at the same time I'm worried about a liquidity squeeze if they go south. It looks to me like they're doing their best to hold things where they are. The physical gold accumulation has got to be on everyone's mind and I think that is one reason the bond market is tanking. I think the fireworks are just beginning in the gold market. I've gotten three mails in the last week from friends wanting to know what and how to buy some large quantities, we're talking 401K money here. The herd seems to be on the verge of a stampede.

Aristotle wrote;

'So would you agree with me that the proper interpretation is
that gamblers are selling and stable entities are buying?'

It looks like a short squeeze to me. I don't see how the shorts can hang on in the face of this physical demand. They've got a lot of money on their side but this seems to be about wealth preservation so I believe this gold market is going to skyrocket. Beats me as to when but it would seem sooner rather than later. Y2k seems to be driving the timing of this move.

ET
Richard, Oregon
(03/04/1999; 22:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 2970)
Silver Coins!
Gandalf - Great story! I hope you took that check to market and "bought your weight in gold". 23X seems to agree with my memory. $10 in pre'64's became $230. But the ads I remember were when I lived in Phoenix, 1971 - 1977. Ive been in Oregon ever since and it wasn't here. Someone must have a chart of silver prices back then. Anyone else with details on the mid 70's silver ads in the newpapers? Washers and dryers I remember seeiing in ads for $10 to $20 in pre'64 silver coins.
JA
(03/04/1999; 22:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2971)
Jeff
Thanks- I had seen IMHO so many times I thought it was something I should know but was frankly a little embarrassed to ask.

ET
When You begin that futures trading class I would like to enroll. I have also been trading commodities off and on for about the same amount of time but never consistently made money.
Farfel
(03/04/1999; 23:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 2972)
Senator Richard Bryan CONFRONTS Rubin RE: IMF GOLD SALES!

MARCH 04, 18:42 EST Senator Against Selling IMF Gold
By TOM GARDNER
Associated Press

Writer RENO, Nev. (AP) � A proposal to sell some of the International Monetary Fund's vast gold reserves would be disastrous for Nevada's mining industry as well as the emerging countries the IMF is trying to help, Sen. Richard Bryan said Thursday. Putting additional gold on the open market would drive low prices even lower in an industry already reeling in Nevada and the West, the Nevada
Democrat said. ``We've had hundreds and hundreds of miners laid off,'' Bryan said in a telephone interview from Washington. ``It's had a real impact on Nevada families, on sales tax revenues. Entire communities in the mining areas of the state have been hurt,'' he said. The metal has languished in the $280-$290 an ounce range for months, below the break-even point for many mines. ``To put additional
downward pressure on the price of gold by selling from the International Monetary Fund's reserves could cause additional mine closings and major layoffs in the industry,'' the senator said. Bryan, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, met Tuesday night with Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to urge him to join in opposition to such a plan. ``He promised to take a look at it,'' Bryan said. The
senator said he also told the treasury secretary that such a selloff could harm poorer countries that produce gold. For example, mining represents 37 percent of Ghana's exports, 36 percent of Mali's and 24 percent of Guyana's, according to 1997 figures. Bryan said he got word this week from some
Nevada gold producers that the sale of IMF gold was back on the table. IMF spokesman William Murray said the suggestion has been floating around for several years. ``There have been notions kicking around among our shareholders, particularly the UK, back starting in 1992, to sell a modest
amount of IMF gold to help finance soft loans to the world's poorest countries,'' he said from Washington. `It's not a bailoutlike Russia or Brazil or Asian ountries,'' Murray said. IMF critics in Congress have opposed bailout efforts in the past. New Jersey Rep. Jim Saxton was among House Republicans who last year complained that the IMF should be selling off some of the gold reserves or borrowing from global capital markets rather than seeking aid from Congress. IMF's assets include more than 100 million ounces of gold. It has sold some of those reserves from time to time since the 1950s. One recent proposal called for the sale of up to 5 million ounces to help cover a financing gap
for a loan operation known as the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, Murray said. In the past, Japan and Germany, the two biggest IMF shareholders after the United States, have opposed touching to gold. Deputy IMF Director Stanley Fischer told Congress in September he opposed the sale of gold reserves because they provide assurances to members of the organization's financial viability. Murray
said Thursday that no sale of gold is imminent and that if it ever took place, it would occur over a period of time. ``It wouldn't be dumped on the market. We're not in the business of disrupting financial markets.'' The 182-nation IMF was created after World War II to keep an eye on the global monetary and economic system. Part of its role is to provide financial and technical assistance to countries that are under severe economic strain, Murray said. In addition to its potential effect on Nevada's No. 2 industry, which has seen some 1,800 layoffs in the past 15 months, Bryan doesn't think the proposal would work anyway. ``They're trying to ease the debt replacement problems, but these countries are so far in that there's no way they're ever going to be able to get themselves out,'' he said.
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2973)
There is no ONE thing...
"The world is changing before our very eyes" is what USAGOLD said recently. Might I provide a modification to that thought? I would say instead, "The world OF GOLD is changing before our very eyes"!
The world has indeed seen its days of changes over the last several decades...shifting balance of power, shifting national boundaries, and shifting sense of national purpose. Recent years have seen booming economies visit all neighborhoods. Today's economic basket cases were yesterday's envy of the world. With the arrival of the 1990's, the world attained "the best of times". Try to explain to your own satisfaction why "the worst of times" is an unwelcome visitor diligently making the rounds like an encyclopaedia salesman also running for public office.
Human history trained men to be mindful of their defense in a military aspect. Thankfully, that world is growing ever stranger to our modern thought. Small flare-ups of civil unrest seem out of place, and the world response, when deemed necessary, is akin to a business deal in the general perspective. This is a changed world, but further change is now on forced hold.
Keynes had a patch...a battle dressing for a wounded world. When the patient recovers, does not the bandage come off? The healthy patient would in his own fashion discover the cause of the rot that afflicts him, and defy doctors orders by removing the cast and bandage that has not been replaced or lifted in decades! The reek of a spreading gangrene is training men to once again be mindful of their defense--in an economic aspect. A strong foundation must be built of something more lasting than credit remittance and confidence.
There is no ONE thing that signals that this is the time the bandages come off. To witness the ill effects of a doctor's benign neglect of other patients is to say "Not me too!" Those who watched as their life's savings decayed in their fingers might be said to be victims of geography--suffering because they were citizens in a country that brought about their own currency destruction. I say instead they were victims of the old school of thought--reliance upon the national systems to ensure the common defense.
The new school of thought is taught by tough lessons. You have an opportunity to learn by those already schooled in hard knocks. The new school dismisses reliance upon the common defense by central authorities. Economics is the 'physics' of human behavior. INDIVIDUAL human behavior...interacting with other individuals toward what he deems best serves his needs. There is no excuse (other than habit of old school mentality) to be caught in dire economic straights when your 'geography' is visited in turn by the inevitable post-Keynesian currency rot.
Gold is your diploma from the New School. With gold, you will never be a victim of geography, or of misplaced reliance for the common defense...for YOUR defense.

There is no ONE thing, but the movement has begun. Like the first pebbles down the mountainside that grow to an avalanche, we are already seeing large rocks and falling trees. Many factors have come together, and the time is at hand...who can name the first stone? Perhaps Year 2000 has gelled the person's recognition of need for individual measures of defense. It is not difficult to stretch the thought from basic needs to the very foundation of the 'physics' of human behavior. How sound is YOUR money? This year shall pave the way for what is to follow...

got gold?
Farfel
(03/05/1999; 00:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2974)
ANALYSIS: SENATOR BRYAN CONFRONTS RUBIN OVER IMF GOLD....
Another brick in the construction of a roaring gold bull occurred when Richard Bryan confronted Treasury Sectretary Rubin over contemplated IMF gold sales.

Richard Bryan is a Democrat and a particularly powerful one at that...he is the senior member of the Senate Banking Committee and if Robbin Rubin's eager dreams for banking reform are to occur, then he best pay attention to Sen. Bryan's wishes. Rubin is trying to push through changes in national banking legislation that would allow banks to set up merchant trading subsidiaries that would fall directly under Treasury control. It is apparent that Bryan is telling Rubin in no uncertain terms: "START STIMULATING THE GOLD PRICE REAL FAST OR FORGET ABOUT MY VOTE!"

Even more interesting is this: if Bryan is agitating about the gold price, then he must be getting some major pressure from Nevada gold mining heavyweights such as Newmont, Battle Mountain, etc. Is it really possible the gold mining companies are finally awaking from their lengthy slumber and exerting their political muscle? Are they finally "Mad as Hell and Not About to Take It Anymore?" Sure seems like it!

In view of this latest development, I would not be surprised to see Rubin begin to back away from his inveterate, extreme, anti-gold maneuvres. If Rubin's hopes for increasing the power of the Treasury Dept. over the nations' banks are to be realized, he best let gold escape the yoke of market manipulations that artifically suppress its price.

This news development constitutes the best evidence to date that the political Establishment is ready to allow gold to run higher.

Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2975)
A good sign
I had not seen USAGOLD's 2968, nor ET's following 2969 before being called away, and the subsequent writing of my recent ramble. It would seem we are in fine agreement.

The rocks coming down the mountain grow larger...
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2976)
Farfel--
Any hour is a good one to meet with gold upon the table. I send my best wishes for the future you seek.
Your words: "This news development constitutes the best evidence to date that the political Establishment is ready to allow gold to run higher."
...just as the beachcomber rolling up his pant-legs is good evidence that he is ready to allow the tide to come in.

Have no fear, my friend, but have gold. It shall be a tide like no other.
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2977)
With good cheer we may ask, "Which is it?"
"A tide or an avalanche?"

Shall we say... they will meet in the middle. And all land will know the power of gold.
turbohawg
(03/05/1999; 02:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2978)
N & V
Michael, as always, the latest News & Views was info packed and an enjoyable read ... appreciated the up-to-date graph of the Brazilian (un)real vs gold as it joins the rubble and others in fiat currency hell.

Any idea how any gold stocks that may trade on the Bovespa are doing ?? I wonder if they're tracking physical or are caught up in the flight from paper.

Aragorn, regarding Msg 2973, just want to say 'well said'.

el St.One
(03/05/1999; 02:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2979)
Commidities school
ET you can enroll me also. I have had a go at commidities over the years. My trading can be summed up in a few words.

" Win a few, loose a bunch"

I go way back, Goodbody & Co. and E F Hutton if anyone remembers these brokers. Just a history side note, they disappeared when the markets went cold back in the 60's and 70's.

As for the Hunt Brothers market corner on silver 1979-1980 they had most of it, when the good ole boys changed the rules. The good ole boys were all short ( probably the same ones that are short Gold today) The g o b were really feeling the pain, so they had the rules changed in the middle of the game. They had the margain on Silver contracts increased from just a few % (10 or 20) to well over 50% maybe even 100%. The Hunts could not meet their margin calls so the whole thing came apart. I wish my memory was better, I got out real early, so I do not remember all the details.

Anyway ET save me a front row seat. el
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 04:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2980)
Hear ye! Hear ye! Now appearing at The GILDED OPINION...
In an interview with Stockhouse.com, "Timer of the Year" Don Wolanchuk announces the imminent Gold Bull.

Your review is requested--as with all additions to The GILDED OPINION--for further discussion at the Round Table. Follow the USAGOLD HomePage links, or use this GILDED OPINION link if you prefer...
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
SteveH
(03/05/1999; 05:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 2981)
What is $289.40?
April gold futures in overnight trading.

Some saying silver may still test 4.80.
SteveH
(03/05/1999; 05:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2982)
Misrepresentation
Please check out the pictures. Correct me if I am wrong but this is bullion only AND selling for almost double bullion. Perhaps a wee-bit of false advertising. For sure not a dollar:

1984 (1) Oz. U. S. Silver Eagle-Dollar Unc
Item #71587301
USAGOLD
(03/05/1999; 08:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 2983)
Today's Gold Market Report: Four Good Reasons for Gold to Make a Move
MARKET UPDATE (3/5/99): Several factors lined up in gold's favor over the past twenty four hours but the positive developments failed to move the yellow metal higher in early New York trading.

First, Comex gold warehouse stocks dropped 69,150 ounces yesterday making a total of nearly 200,000 ounces delivered in the past week. Some analysts associate the deliveries to
last week's inverted market wherein spot gold was selling at a premium to any future month -- a sign that investors want delivery on their futures' contracts. Though we have no way of knowing who is taking delivery and why, we believe that the big drawdowns are associated with the huge public demand for gold worldwide but particularly in the United States where a late demand surge in 1998 related to Y2K (+18%) made the U.S. one of the world's fastest growing gold markets.

Second, Bridge News reported late yesterday that the gold market action yesterday when gold finished up $1.20 was essentially being driven by one company that purchased 1000
contracts about mid-session. If you recall, when the gold rally was killed by short sellers about two weeks ago, the reports were that some short seller had sold 1000 contracts as the price pushed toward the $290 mark. Now it appears that same player is covering those shorts. If it is, it covering in a narrow, or perhaps even non-existent range, a less than subtle warning to all short players that the tide in the gold market could be shifting. So much so that Merrill "We're Bearish on Gold" Lynch changed their rating of gold from "negative" to "neutral." If the old saw that one should be measured by his or her enemies not friends, I've got to say I almost liked Merrill Lynch better when they were sitting on the other side of the fence lobbing hand grenades at us. Whatever happened to good old Ted Arnold anyway?

Third, according to an AP news report (Thanks Farfel) last night, the good Secretary of Treasuy, Robert Rubin, received a somewhat unpleasant yesterday from one Senator Richard Bryan of Nevada who, it appears, is not all that happy with all the noise coming out of the Treasury Department about potential International Monetary Fund gold sales. If you recall, it the vice president of the United States, Al Gore, who pitched the Davos conference of finance ministers recently on all the good reasons why the IMF should sell some of its gold. The finance ministers nodded their heads, expressed their appreciation for such interesting ideas, and then promptly tabled the discussion for another time. Well, Mr. Bryan happens to represent a gold mining state where some fairly powerful mining interests have operations and he did not take kindly to the administration's position. What's more he happens to be the ranking Democrat on the all-important Senate Banking Committee where Rubin must take his schemes for liberalizing the banking industry if we wants to make them law.

"We've had hundreds and hundreds of miners laid off,'' Bryan said in a telephone interview with Associated Press from Washington. "It's had a real impact on Nevada families, on
sales tax revenues. Entire communities in the mining areas of the state have been hurt...To put additional downward pressure on the price of gold by selling from the International Monetary Fund's reserves could cause additional mine closings and major layoffs in the industry... "He Treasury Secretary Rubin) promised to take a look at it."

Lastly, the Swiss legislature moved yesterday to delay any gold sales to 2001 or 2002 giving market players the feeling that the Swiss may not be as eager to sell those reserves as previously publicized.

So that's it for today. We are surprised that gold hasn't moved up and out of the range this morning. Perhaps that big buyer has either fully covered or will show up later in the session.

More later if warranted. Have a good weekend, my fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the newsletter.
ET
(03/05/1999; 09:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 2984)
JA and el

Thanks for the replies. I have a very conservative strategy and is the farthest thing from most people's idea of commodity trading. It works for me. I learned this in 1989 at a high school reunion from a fellow that founded Rand Financial in Chicago.

Read Murphy's 'Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets' so you have a good background in chart interpretation. Only trade the intermediate trend, never the short trend. This means you are only trading any given market maybe half the time at most. I generally trade the grains and I learned on corn because of it's low volatility. Don't go beyond corn until you can consistently make money at it. Never risk anymore than 10% of your total capital on any market. Capital preservation is the name of the game. Watch for a breakout either way from a period of consolidation and have a buy or sell order in for two contracts only. If the market moves your way buy or sell two more contracts everytime you have have made twice the margin of the first two and so on. ALWAYS keep trailing stops just below (if long) or above (if short) the previous short term low (if long) or high (if short). You want to be stopped out if the intermediate term trend starts to run out of gas. Then you wait for another opportunity. It's pretty simple but it takes patience and discipline. I've found that I catch the bulk of the move (the middle between 15% to 85% of the total move). Like I said, it's pretty conservative and I'm actually only in the market maybe half the time.

I'm not trading at all right now because I'm worried about the ability of the clearinghouses to cover if the overall financial system starts to come apart. If gold makes a move above say $350 I intend to wire my money out of my account. I've already removed most of it.

ET
beesting
(03/05/1999; 10:20:42 MDT - Msg ID: 2985)
Follow up on "Know Your Customer" proposal
Recieved by E-Mail last night! "Know Your Customer" dealt serious blow as house Banking Committee approves version of Paul-Campbell Amendment 8.
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press99/pro30499.kyc.htm

Mr.Aragorn III may I have permission to copy and repost msg.2973 Great Post!!!

Hope this posts O.K. We call the computer the BUBBLE MACHINE at my house because at times it foams at the mouth along with me................beesting
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 10:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 2986)
Beesting...for reprinting
I am honored that you would like to share my words with a larger audience. You are kind to ask! My goal is to assist where possible, so permission is granted with one request. Please include the "http://" link that appears in the forum address box to assist anyone so inclined for additional comments or questions. Is that too much? I hope you find these 'terms' to your liking. It seems the fair thing to provide this measure of recognition due to our 'Round Table' host. Perhaps we shall discover more knights!

I saw that you had computer difficulties yesterday. I shared your problem updating this forum for the past week. The solution I discovered last evening was to download a modern Internet Browser. My older version was failing to recognize new pages...as it appears was yours. My problem has been now solved. I hope this works for you.
USAGOLD
(03/05/1999; 12:22:04 MDT - Msg ID: 2987)
This Weekend's Contest: Rules and Suject Matter.
It's day two of the posting contest and I can see that all the meisters are biding their time and playing it close to the vest.

Just to reiterate the gist of this contest:

Those of us who have been in the industry for more years than we care to admit have always thought that the next bull market in gold would have a monetary disaster at its root. And to say the least, there is plenty of wood around to keep that fire burning. Nevertheless, it is not a dollar disaster that has fueled the big-runup in gold demand, but the computer bug. The question at the center of this contest is are you preparing for Y2K and why? If you are not preparing why? If you are preparing, how are you are preparing? Is gold playing a role and to what degree? Bonus points will be awarded to those who can weave the potential importance of some unforeseen event resulting from Y2K that will impact the world economy.

You can speak whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends and......

Let the contest begin!
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 13:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2988)
News you might use
HEADLINE: Central banks maybe overestimated 1990s inflation--March 5 (Reuters)

As you read this, you can almost see the bubble growing and hear the pressmen prepare for maximum output.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/xl.html

INTERVIEW-Fed's Kelley warns economy may overheat--March 5 (Reuters)

The Fed is not eager to allow conditions that foster "boom and bust." Only boom...?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/wg.html

HEADLINE: Post-jobs data US bond market rally seen temporary--March 5 (Reuters)

Bond prices are expected to resume their slide
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/zf.html

HEADLINE: Alert: International Y2K picture grim--March 05 (United Press International)

Short and to the point...Headline says it all.
http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnT9K0bebCZK5mtu&FQ=v%25upi&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25upi%0A
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 13:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2989)
Closing N.Y. Metals -- (FWN)
Gold Sandwiched by Dlr., Spread Unwinding

New York-March 5-FWN--Gold futures settled unchanged
here today, in a market apparently being helped by the
unwinding of long-silver/short-gold positions, but also held
in check by recent strength in the U.S. dollar, sources
said.
Gold continues to retreat as lease rates return to more
"normal" levels and a slow liquidation continues as prices
fall through support levels.
April gold settled at $289.50, where it left off on
Thursday.
While dollar/yen is down 0.67 yen today at Y122.80, it
is nevertheless up from a low of Y118.82 on Monday.
Strength in dollar/yen is not the reason for the
breakdown in silver, it nevertheless has at least been a
"restraint" on the gold, said Dave Meger, metals analyst
with Alaron Trading. Yet at the same time, he continued, he
has been somewhat "impressed" with the action in gold, since
there have been no downward breaks that might normally be
expected with a stronger dollar/yen.
"The other big effect on the market recently--
especially the last two or three days--is you've seen a lot
of silver/gold spread liquidation," he continued.
"A lot of traders and funds were long silver and short
gold....And now you're seeing a lot of silver selling and
gold buying, unwinding those spreads.
"Because of that effect supporting the gold, and the
dollar strength being the resistance, you've seen relatively
tight gold trade over the last handful of days," he
said.
Sources in the last couple of days have also pointed to
comments from a Swiss Finance Ministry spokesman suggesting
that a referendum on a revaluation and gold sales may be
combined with another vote next year. This has been viewed
as at least slightly supportive, since it would mean any
potential gold sales if the referendum even passes, which
would be pushed out to 2000 or beyond.
Significant resistance in cash gold is seen around
$290, which would be $291 to $291.50 for the April futures,
said Meger.
"If we see some closes above that price level, with the
amount of funds we have short in this market right now, you
could definitely see some short covering. However, I believe
it's going to take some dollar weakness and some other
factors to get gold up above that price level," he said.
Further resistance for April gold is seen around $292
to $293, then $298. Support was put at $287.10, $285 and
$282.
Meger commented that today's February U.S. employment
report did not appear to have any significant impact on the
metals, even though it sent the U.S. equity market
skyrocketing. Inflationary fears were calmed by a smaller-
than-expected 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings,
while non-farm payrolls rose a slightly greater-than-expected 275,000.
Ahead of time, Meger said, he suspected the metals
would be in a "no-win" situation with the jobs report. He
said he had expected a strong employment report to cause the
dollar to soar, which typically hurts the metals, while a
weak report would have physical demand forecasts.
"I think it was a non-event for the metals," he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2990)
COMEX Gold Depository musical chairs
Yesterday's removal of 69,118 troy ounces (Registered) from Scotia Mocatta was followed today by the arrival of 69,118 troy ounces (Registered) at Republic National. Did somebody want their gold housed closer to home?

Pooling Thursday and Friday, there was a net movement of 2,000 ounces out of COMEX, with additional shuffling of Registered gold at R.N. for Eligible gold at S.M.

Totals are by permission of FWN
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 2991)
NY Precious Metals Review: Bridge News--March 5
"There's no liquidity left in the [silver] market," said a trader. "It's irreparably
hurt. The majority who traded silver this year have gotten hurt." He said most
market players are switching their focus from silver to gold.
Meanwhile, Apr gold settled unchanged at $289.5 per ounce and is very well
supported despite the rally in the stock and bond markets, traders said. They
said there is good buying in gold offset by producer selling.
Traders said they are very bullish on gold and expect Apr to break out to
the upside to $292 in the near-term then $296.
"It's hard to think gold will go up when they're obliterating silver, but I
think it'll happen," one trader said.
-----By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2992)
Does anyone believe this portends well for the dollar's future?
HEADLINE: US inflation no longer a factor--March 5 (Reuters)

Fed Bank of Richmond President Broaddus says inflation no longer factors into economic decisions!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/85.html
Aristotle
(03/05/1999; 15:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 2993)
ET--Maybe you do, maybe you don't
I know you've said you deal primarily with grains, but since you are a significant step closer to the futures action than I am, you seem the likely candidate to field this question. Do you have any idea what percentage of the gold futures contracts result in actual delivery of goods? In other words, how many contracts involve a true price-hedger as opposed to a pure gambler/speculator?
Thanks for your previous response. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/05/1999; 16:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2994)
Good to be back!
I see from USAGOLD's post there is some metal to be had. Where else can you earn gold directly? Ahhhhhh...life is good.

In regard to the contest topic, I have been kept busy...checking my gold for embedded chips. My findings:

Y2K----very very bad;
GOLD---very very good.

I'm sure there will be an exciting array of insightful posts over the weekend, but none as eloquent in its simplicity. My fellow Knights, what say you throw in the towel right now and ship the treasure straight-away? :-)
---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/05/1999; 18:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2995)
To be Read by Impatient Gold Bulls Only
If you're waiting for a nasty drop in the stock market to prove you are right about gold, don't; not because it won't happen necessarily, but because IT DOESN'T NEED TO HAPPEN.

Remember, we are in a period of very rapid money creation throughout the world. Brazil has borrowed itself, and devalued itself, far beyond any ability to ever repay its massive debts. Prices there have ballooned above 40%(annual rate) in recent weeks. Japan, which is itself buried in debt, has finally begun to do the inevitable. The BOJ is buying government bonds in amounts that jolted their stock market into a 700 point gain today. Until things turn around, you can bet there will be lots more liquidity where that came from. Finally, money supply in the United States (bent on preserving exchange relationships with weak foreign currencies) exceeds all recent historical rates of growth.

To put it simply, we have to treat the nearly worldwide recession as if it were our own, or, the fear is, it soon will be.

But, the fact of the matter is, the U.S. is not in a recession, and, as such, rapidly expanding our money will inevitably result in inflation. The fact that it might also keep the stock market afloat is almost a given and has no bearing on whether gold is about to rise.

What DOES have a bearing on the future of gold however, is the bond market. Virtually all central banks keep U.S. dollars as a reserve currency, something to stand behind their own currencies and provide confidence. Most of these dollars do not sit idly. They earn interest by being held in the form of U.S. treasuries.
When these bonds decline in value, as they have recently, the various banks are left holding the bag. This is why there is so much talk about converting some of those reserves to gold. The whole world is attempting to reinflate, and, if they succeed, bonds are far less likely to retain their value than is gold.

Bond bulls argue that we are in a period of disinflation. They talked confidently about what a great buy bonds were this week. February was the worst single month for bonds in I don't know how many years, and yet today bulls were pointing to a one day bounce as proof they are right. Baloney. Bonds were badly oversold, and that's all. Anybody who thinks that the falling bond market, in the face of so much money creation, is just a fluke, is dreaming.

Nobody with a stake in bonds wants gold to go up. Such a move would signal reinflation and would cause central banks and many others to sell their bonds. The concomitant rise in long rates would vastly complicate the world's effort to achieve economic recovery. AND, because such selling of bonds might well result in replacing reserves with gold, the whole process might well feed on itself; bonds go down, buy some gold; gold goes up, sell some bonds, etc.

But what if the money growth, great as it is, is inadequate to compensate for all the money that is being destroyed - like when Brazil defaults, for example?

Well, if I were you, I would expect Brazil to default alright. But if you think you have seen money creation now, you ain't seen nothing yet. Let Brazil default. Let the hedgefunds slip toward the edge of oblivion, for that matter. Greenspan will be there, just like he was in 1987 and just like he was with LTCM. You can depend on it.

Thank you for reading all of this. Chances are you already understood everything I just said. Perhaps, you even disagree with it. But, I thought, on a day like to today, it might pay to review why we are here. I hope I didn't waste your time.


ET
(03/05/1999; 18:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2996)
Aristotle

I'm not sure I can tell you much about actual settlements. I don't really pay any attention to it. When it comes to trading I'm strictly a technical trader. I don't really pay any attention to the news regarding anything I'm trading other than I'm aware of the world in general. I figure all news is discounted and besides that, it's a lot easier. I do know that some markets like orange juice are almost all commercials. It wouldn't surprise me if the gold market was comprised mostly of commercials in terms of their hedging requirements but I don't really know.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/05/1999; 19:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2997)
Aragorn III and The Stranger's POSTS
Thank you both for your thoughts! Please keep the explainations coming as they clear the head of the vast amount of disinformation being spread by the Sheeple "shearers".
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/05/1999; 19:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2998)
Aristotle's "winning" post
The Hobbits are requesting the post to be ----REJECTED---!!! (Because you did not use enough words.) <;-)
Goldfly
(03/05/1999; 20:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2999)
Hey Stranger!
No, not a waste of time at all. A good clearly reasoned statement of what is understood only intuitively by others (like me.)

I've never liked the idea of a stock market crash, because that would be deflationary (uh, dollar and price?) But I do think it has to happen- The current valuations (on a number of stocks) are STUPID.

But I also think that when the gleam is off stocks, there is still going to be a huge pile of greenbacks looking for a home. They are going to want Yellow real estate.

Oh give me a hoooome, where I don't take a loan,
And there's no fear of Y-i-2K......
I'll trade all my stocks, for a few yellow rocks,
While the bond markets sagging all day.....

GF
Peter Asher
(03/05/1999; 21:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3000)
Goldfly
I learned that tune as the first song I ever sung at a very small age, with it being played,would you believe, on my "wind up" victrola. So I just sang it for Robin and of course sounded awful; but we loved the lyrics.
Peter Asher
(03/05/1999; 21:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3001)
Stranger
Your post couldn't have come at a better time. I had just finished digesting today's bi-monthly issue of "The Wall Street Underground" and was in a total funk. Nick Guarino is basically visualizing Asia and Brazil being the first part of a global domino sequence that will wipe out EVERYTHING. I was lying prostrate, trying to assimilate that forecast back to back with today's market mania and dragged myself to the keyboard, hoping for some form of mental salvation. It must have been Finally Friday Fatigue, because I had forgotten all about-- Greenspan!

Well, your analysis seems to be spot on, and I think I can now come up with more than 30 words on what, for me was the biggest surprise of the year: today's stock market.----Back in awhile---.

Peter A.
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 00:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3002)
Gandalf, Gandalf, Gandalf...
Surely keeping it to 10 words or less should be heralded as a major acheivement, particularly since I have been known to run-on a bit at times! My squire is already preparing a worthy space for the small treasure...
TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 00:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3003)
News you need. Especially the second one. And the first one.
Follow the links!

HEADLINE: Y2K shutdown of Gazprom could leave Russia in dark--March 5 (Reuters)

CIA analyst testified before Congress that certain failures were highly likely. This is REAL, folks.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/bdu.html

HEADLINE: China says deficit needed to keep economy churning--March 6 (Reuters)

***A MUST READ***Chinese Finance Minister said a "massive rise" (57%!) in the budget deficit would be required to keep economy and social problems in line.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/beg.html
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 00:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3004)
SIH9 **5.542** on Fri. close. This may be the week of change.
I imagine we all know the saying, "Be careful what you ask for; you may get it." Well when Michael asked what the biggest surprise of the year was, I thought, "None of this year's financial scene surprises me." Then this morning when I tuned in to the first hour of trade, I thought I was misreading the numbers. Oh sure, I told Steve last night that it was now or never, if "They" were going to run it again, and I had seen a late bulletin on Greenspan's alleged comments, but I was envisioning another run into the 9400 zone .

I've been trying to discern if the current chart patterns were starting to show distribution, and just yesterday I had a domestic discussion on the difficulty of distinguishing that from a pattern of consolidation. Well today's Dow chart looks like a raging bull. BUT, do this. Pull up the Quote. com live chart and set it on weekly (with candles for clarity). Now, it will start with the Dow, so keep your eye on the right-hand segment and make a little click-frame movie, going in the order of quantity. OEX, SPX, NYAX and COMPX . The broader the base of stocks in each average, the more the chart shows a rounded-over or even a pointed peak. Furthermore, the "record" high of today is only a DOW phenomenon.

Back about 1960, I read a stock market book by a fellow named Nye. He claimed that when the insiders wanted to, say, get out, they would run the Dow up, with the help of the floor specialists, while distributing all they could of everything else into a "rising" market. Now, at that time, a ten- million share day was headline news, so I don't have a clue if this is currently relevant. But something similar could be at work.

Other than that, there is the fact that at the moment the economy is humming along, and the invest-in-what-goes-up craze has plenty of money still feeding it. Well, "The bigger they come, the harder they fall." However, the inside money will park safely before the rush hour. So gold and silver should be making their move while things still look positive.

In the final battle, it will be Alan Greenspan versus a spooked public. Time WILL tell!
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 00:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3005)
Am I preparing? You'd better believe I'm preparing.

What really got my attention regarding Y2Kwas a report the CIA put out about a year ago, saying how there was no way that third world countries were going to pull through with their computer systems. Their infrastructure will simply cease to work. Entire countries (I'm extrapolating here) could simply vanish. The thought struck me at the time: If the same thing happens in the US, we'll have chaos. Even if it's only half as bad. Or a quarter�..

I work senior support at a medium-sized, manufacturing company. I work with computers all day long. Yesterday I finished my MCSE- Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer. (At least they didn't make me sign a paper saying I wouldn't represent myself as an "Engineer" like Novell did for my CNE.) I do know something about computers (Honest.) I have seen the chaos something relatively minor such as the mail server going down can cause. I don't have to be convinced of how persnickety and cantankerous computers are. If a computer isn't getting what it needs- down to the last and tiniest detail- it will simply shut down or spew garbage. It can take hours or days to figure out some idiocy like a misplaced capital letter or the like.

So anyway, I know computers too well. I don't trust them. I can accept the idea that a programing error could throw civilization off-course

The Preparations

Gold - According to my means
Silver - For smaller barter
Cash- Cash will be king, at least for a while, after the bank run.
Stocks- You've got to be kidding. The stock market scares me silly.

Food- Cases of canned beans, tuna, stews (Castlebury's is great! They blow Armour and Hormel out of the water. Cheaper too!) Speaking of water- I'm working on a static supply.

We've ordered about 1000 pounds of wheat/beans/rice/etc with a local co-op. In buckets, with the oxygen removers. Yeast, cinnamon, honey, cocoa powder, olive oil, peanut butter. Pounds and gallons. Some pasta and the usual suspects. A couple of grinders. One of them electric. (My wife had to have an electric grinder for the time being. Much easier.) Speaking of baking bread. Need some kind of heat source, right? Working on it.

We're looking at some dried foods, but aren't too sure.

Paper: A year's supply of diapers. (I have a three-month old) I'm guessing about a 6-9 month (and growing) supply of TP. Paper plates (no washing). Feminine stuff.

Guns- Well, that could be the subject of a whole 'nother post. Basically: not yet.

Car parts- None. I figure it's bad, with distribution breakdown. Cars won't get much use anyway. No gas.

Cleaning products: Somewhat.

No, no generator. At least not yet. I can't decide if being the only house on the street with power would be too showy. And then there is storing the fuel. I don't know��..

Kids- 4 of them. Oldest is 7. I'm trying to make known that things may not be like they are now without spooking them. I don't think they get it. I hope they never do.

Now, you may ask why would I monkey around with my MCSE if I think this is TEOTWAWKI???

Well, I'm actually hoping to use it as leverage to get out of our present situation. We are in a population center of about 2 million. The idea of sewage and garbage piling up in our street is not pleasant. The thought of marauders battling neighborhood militias is not sweet either. This second certification should make me that much more marketable; that businesses will be willing to part with quite a chunk of change to secure my services. (Pssst- you want to meet my resume?) I'd be looking be able to live a good ways outside a population center while still being able to find work. We'll see how it goes.

Besides that, I could be wrong. I hope I am. I hope I can get up Saturday morning and get some cold milk out of the fridge to put on my kids cereal and lead a normal life. If I am wrong then I won't have neglected providing for THAT future either. We'll eat our supplies. The grain will last for a couple of years. My wife loves to bake bread. She is actually looking forward to practicing with the wheat order we're getting in. If we do manage to move, we've always wanted a more rural setting anyhow. We'd be (at least generally) where we want to be.

Enough! To bed. Perchance to sleep�..

GF
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 00:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3006)
Minor Error Below
1st paragraph, 3rd sentance should read "two nights ago", not "last night"
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 01:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3007)
As simple as it sounds, most people don't "get" it.
Understanding the elemental aspects of money, that is. You, Stranger, obviously get it. (For that matter, most of those that find their way to gold pages such as this are light-years ahead of their neighbors.)

As twisted as it may seem, the performance of the stock market need have nothing to do with the world of gold--exactly as you have stated. The yen has weakened, and the Nikkei shot up 5% in yesterday's trading. Same thing recently in Brazil. On one day that the currency weakened dramatically, the Bovespa went skyward. TownCrier posted news the other day (Thursday?) wherein Ecuador's currency tanked in ONE DAY by 27% and naturally the market responded by a similar shot in the opposite direction. This should be expected, as stocks are real things (a percent ownership in the assets and operation of a real corporation), and we all know that the prices of real things go UP as the purchasing power of a currency goes down. There's a flaw, however, for the stock mavens that would like to envision this situation as the best of all worlds--getting general appreciation of stock during "good times", and an inflation hedge during currency decay. (Thanks Aragorn...borrowed that one from you!) The flaw is that while the *real* element of the corporation will justify the price increase during a collapse of the currency value, it must be remembered that these companies depend upon 'paying customers' for their profitability. When the currency tanks, these people's savings are wiped out, and they are not going to be very good customers again for a long time! It is only a short matter of time before the market traders see the resulting drain on corporate profits and sell the stock back down in price, making it worth less, and in devalued currency to boot!

If you hold bonds, you'll get exactly what you deserve. Don't play that game. Bonds are basically currency that is dressed up for the Prom.

The solution to so many problems is so simple! People must recognize first what money is, how it is created, and how it is similarly destroyed upon debt repayment. They must also appreciate how vulnerable its value is to manipulation or speculative attack. Sure, use it to pay bills. Sure, invest some of it in a solid company with an attractive valuation and risk/reward ratio. But by all means, don't ask too much of your currency. Always, always, always make the exchange for gold. This is the reality we are moving toward. You should convince yourself of the merits of this program. As more and more people participate, the exchange rate will require ever more dollars for a quantity of gold, and the 'value' of each gram of your gold savings will rise over time...like interest on a bond, but without the volatility and equivalent risks faced by the currency itself. (The current exchange rate is a gift that I marvel at monthly.)

So if the dreaded day arrives that your national currency is devalued in the eyes of the world, your stock portfolio will give you a measure of protection, but will always carry the inherent risk associated with the overall success of the business end of the operation. Holding bonds will be no better than holding cash. Much worse, in fact. Holding gold, however, will allow the day to pass as every other before it. It would be as though you were not a resident of the country that was so afflicted. The bulk of your wealth--your ability to afford your daily needs--survives intact.

When people hold gold bullion (not jewelry) in hand for the first time, a "light comes on" for more of them than not. They become like dry kindling touched by a glowing ember. A smoldering change of thought and perspective followed by a blaze of understanding. This happens faster in some than others, but it happens. May be seconds...may be months. It happens! Consider this...Y2K will be reponsible for putting more gold into more people's hands than the MODERN era has ever known before. There will be a change, and change is good! Thanks to Aragorn III and The Stranger for inspiration for this evening's presentation to the Round Table.

Life is good! If you disagree, you are doing it wrong. Live it on your own terms. Choose a gold standard, and enjoy the reward vested upon all those who started early. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 02:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3008)
Addendum to msg#3004
While as a technical observer, the 1st hour jump in the Dow may have been, to me, the biggest surprise this year, the fundamental behind it was probably the biggest surprise to analysts and economists in general. Specifically the .1% rise in payrolls rather than the expected .3%. Secondarily there was the slight unexpected rise in unemployment Which brings to mind the fact that the unemployment numbers are the least meaningfull of statistics, as they reflect CLAIMS, not numbers of people out of work.

SteveH
(03/06/1999; 07:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3009)
Rhody
Date: Sat Mar 06 1999 09:12
rhody (KKKK@ Mooney: you got mail. OK, then my final figure) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
should be about $US75 to $100 per oz. Fact is, it just does
not pay to mine silver for $5 per oz. In fact, there would
be only one or two straight silver mines operating at these
prices. Eighty percent of silver comes from by product base
metal mines. Because of the economic contraction, these mines
are scaling back. The question now arises, which falls faster,
mine production or silver consumption? So far consumption
is falling a little faster than mine production. But this
still gives us a supply shortfall approaching 200 million oz,
and total world stockpiles total only 360 million oz. So
1.8 years from now, world stock piles will be zero, and we will
still have an annual demand shortfall, and we will still have
a short overhang of 700 million oz and a lease overhang of
well over 1.6 billion oz. Even if you don't believe in the
lease overhang thing, the short overhang is equal to more than
one full year of mine production. Any way you look at it
1.8 years from now, the world demand will be 1.5 to 2.5 billion
oz and the total world supplies will be 600 million oz spread
over the production year plus what ever can be coaxed out of
hoarded supplies, some of which where purchased at $50 per oz
nearly 20 years ago.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 07:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3010)
Rhody (again!). Something we can sink our teeth into.
Gotta love it. Answers when and how much and why. All the rest of us gold-and-silver-will-go-uppers can learn a good lesson on how to do it. I did.


Date: Sat Mar 06 1999 08:38
rhody (A PRECIOUS METAL NIGHTMARE: If you bought silver in) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1980-81 at the abolute peak of silver prices ( $80 per oz ) and
held that silver to present, here's what you are looking at.
The present dollar is worth less than 50c in buying power, and
silver is approaching $5. So you would have a paper loss
of $75 per oz and an inflation loss double that to add insult
to injury. The real losses would be $150 per oz. plus lost
interest income. This is the stuff of nightmares, and yet
I know of posters on this forum who as of last year, still held
silver purchased back in the early 1980's!
Why am I bringing this horrible topic up right now? Well,
it's because we are now in exactly the opposite situation.
Silver is at 600 year lows. We can use nearly worthless 50
cent dollars to buy silver at 5 bucks at a time when silver
stockpiles will reach zero in less than two years. This means
that silver will likely return to its old valuation of $80 per
oz and that will be adjusted for inflation. This means silver
could reach US$175 per oz sometime in the next two years.
Feel better?
ET
(03/06/1999; 08:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3011)
Possible political aspects of y2k

This being a y2k weekend here, I thought I would post this analysis of the Senate's report. This was posted to csy2k this week following the Senate report and some revelations from a public planner in Michigan as reported at World Net Daily (www.worldnetdaily.com). I hope this formats correctly.

ET

Subject: Executive Order 12656 - post-Y2K dictatorship
Date: Fri, 5 Mar 1999 20:21:12 +0100
From: Anonymous
Organization: mail2news@replay.com
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000




Some of you who have seen the latest Worldnetdaily stories about Y2K (e.g.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_bresnahan/19990304_xex_what_fema_ha.sht
ml) are aware that they have found at least one source claiming that FEMA
is going to assume dictatorial powers in the wake of Y2K. The Bennett-Dodd
report (http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/reportcontents.html) on pages 98 and 99
strenuously denies any such marital law scenario:

"Our national security is dependent on our ability to assure continuity of
government, at every level, in any national security emergency situation
that might confront the nation. Executive Order 12656, the Assignment of
Emergency Preparedness Responsibilities, broadly outlines the role of
FEMA's director and the National Security Council in response to national
security emergencies. Executive Order 12656 defines a national security
emergency as 'any occurrence, including natural disaster, military attack,
technological emergency or other emergency, that seriously degrades or
seriously threatens the national security of the United States.' [ . . . .
]

"Numerous misguided rumors and outright falsehoods are being circulated in
some quarters on the Internet about the possibility of 'martial law' will
somehow be declared by the federal government in response to Y2K
emergencies. These rumors and falsehoods will serve only to incite
unwarranted public panic and to needlessly heighten public fear and
misunderstanding about the Y2K problem. Such irresponsible and reckless
speculation has no basis in fact, and it disregards the long history of our
nation's commitment to democracy and our own constitutional system of
government, which is grounded in the rule of law."

The curious thing about this strongly worded denial is that it is
self-refuting - note the reference to Executive Order 12656. Obviously,
the distinguished Senators are hoping that no one actually bothers to read
the Executive Order, for anyone who does will quickly realize that martial
law is precisely what E.O. 12656 contemplates. If you want to read the
blueprint for tyranny for yourself, it can be found at
http://www.ncs.gov/ncs/html/EO12656.htm (or, if you want to be slightly
more anonymous, go through http://www.anonymizer.com/open.html or
http://proxy.magusnet.com:8084/ first).

Basically, E.O. 12656 is a Reagan-era outline for federal control of the
economy (and law enforcement) under the direction of the National Security
Council, with particular sectors of the economy being parcelled out among
various departments and agencies and coordination between departments and
agencies being handled by FEMA. While it doesn't explicitly call for the
abolition of private property and self-ownership, E.O. 12656 presumes that
the federal government has the right to plan production, allocate resources
and labor, and fix wages and other prices. In other words, a private owner
would be little more than a state functionary, subject to a kind of
socialist central planning with a facade of meaningless private titles to
property to save the appearance of legality and legitimacy.

It is truly extraordinary that the authors of the Bennett-Dodd Report would
try to pass this off as something that is not an instance of martial law.
The essence of martial law is the suspension of individual rights in order
to preserve the state's existence; if your right to have exclusive control
over yourself and your property is negated under a "national security
emergency," then we are indeed talking about the imposition of martial law.
And who here has the slightest doubt that the military and the federalized
police forces will be used to impose FEMA's plans on those who refuse to
conform?

As for the constitutionality of this scheme, I think that most Americans
aren't going to care whether the feds can supply a legalistic
rationalization for tyranny or not - who cares about a sham-democracy or a
sham-constitution or a sham-rule of law when you are being asked to live
under a socialist police state? With politicians brazenly threatening to
implement E.O. 12656, the public should be afraid - very, very afraid.
turbohawg
(03/06/1999; 10:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3012)
catching up on recent posts
Lots of good ones. Stranger, excellent ... you make a great case for gold. I was pulling for you last week in your effort to run into that guy some call the president.

Peter, any chance you could glean a little from Gaurino's report for us ?? If so, perhaps some smelling salts close at hand would be in order.

ET, if the contention made in your Y2K post plays out, look for me in Galt's Gulch. If memory serves correctly, wasn't that somewhere in the area of USAGOLD's home base ?? Hmmm...

The latest Market Commentary from David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund: http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm.htm

ET
(03/06/1999; 11:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3013)
Preparation for y2k

As I've posted previously concerning this subject I'll reiterate a few thoughts. I've been following this issue for several years and have already made preparations for a worst case scenario. My problem has always been, what is a worst case scenario and how might it manifest itself? The issue breaks down into several aspects, all of which need to be considered when attempting preparations for an event of no historical precedence. Three areas concern me; physical infrastructure, economic and financial infrastructure, and political infrastructure.

Of these three I consider the economic aspects as being the most likely to affect, to the greatest magnitude, the average Joe. Since readers here understand the economic state of the world today I won't go into why a collapse of the monetary system would be so crushing. If all physical infrastructure were to remain in place, the current state of remediation around the world would result in huge losses in business efficiencies thus putting the entire loan structure which supports the monetary system at risk. Thus, a worst case scenario would mean that all paper assets would approach zero value draining the world of it's perceived wealth. Unemployment would be a huge problem as many goods and services would find no buyers. As to how to prepare for such a circumstance I would imagine storing items you would consume if you didn't have a job would be high on the list. Any excess fiat money would be best employed in some kind of hard money. Some thinking about what kind of job one would find in demand following a monetary collapse is also in order and attaining the equipment, capital and skills to have a shot at a new economy.

The second most likely problem in my opinion is the political infrastructure following a monetary collapse. I have no doubt in my mind that our leaders will make every attempt to maintain power and control. The 'continuance of government' will be their highest priority. What this actually will entail will likely be dictated by the severity of physical infrastructure problems and economic problems. As per my post concerning the analysis of the Senate's report, I harbor no illusions as to what our collectivist leaders are capable when their power is threatened. As to how to prepare for some kind of dictatorial fascism or worse I haven't a clue other than to speak out against any such ideas. I'm afraid our populace however would be very quick to plead to government for help engendering just the type of reaction those of us that covet our freedoms fear. The one positive aspect is that those who would wish to enslave others are at a huge numerical disadvantage. If policies of this type are coming than I would expect those that do prepare will be in a position to function outside the influence of any police state to some degree. The government needs popular support to remain in control and if enough are prepared that don't need their help than an economy will emerge outside their control. This is probably the best incentive to prepare.

I place physical infrastructure problems at the bottom of my list because I see much evidence that they will be mitigated for the most part. It is likely we will see problems but I don't foresee a complete loss of infrastructure for any great length of time if at all. I expect the power to work, the telecoms to work, and fuel to be available. Because of a monetary collapse however the prices might be very high for essential items. All this is not to say I haven't prepared for a complete collapse of physical infrastructure nevertheless. It is only prudent. Preparing not for just myself but others that won't is a high priority because of the possible political aspects.

I also wanted to address the issue of cash. I'm not a fan of running to the bank and yanking out all your cash and hoarding it. It is fine to yank it out and convert it to something other than cash but placing it in your mattress is probably a lousy idea for a couple of reasons. First, cash will hold no value if the banks are forced to close for lack of liquid cash. No vendor will accept it if he cannot turn around and use the banking system to purchase more goods. Secondly, the purchasing power of cash will likely deteriorate very quickly if the fed as expected will be producing money at very high rates to avoid a collapse of liquidity. One would be better served to buy hard assets allowing the cash to be returned to the banking system. As much as I believe this however does not confuse me about the reality of the situation. People will likely run to cash causing banks to ration it out. All in all, I don't see it as the best way to protect your assets. Conversion now makes more sense than waiting until everybody decides that might be the way to go.

In summary, I believe an economic collapse is likely the best case scenario. I don't see at this time how it is to be avoided. Not only will people panic but governments will also. Probably the best plan is to try to stay out of the way of both.

From chaos comes opportunity.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/06/1999; 11:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3014)
Thank you Aristotle for #3007
The ONLY way the Sheeple will get it is for the teachers to reiterate in similar methods the theme you have defined in message #3007. Your teachings, together with those of Aragorn III, The Stranger, MK of USAGOLD, Peter A., and the GOLDFLY will, when read be like the placing of the gold in the palm of a nonbeliever, and spark the light of knowledge. Oh, if only WE ALL could start placing the 1/10 oz. pieces in our friends hands as MK is doing. However, this method of reaching those Sheeple with the WORD is my only way, as I encourage friends and contacts to stop by the FORUM roundtable and partake of the GREAT wisdom found herein. Please all, do not hesitate to continue to ask the lurkers to join in the discussion and enhance the wide scope of learning. Communication is the "best" way of learning, as the self educated method is costly and at times HURTS when an error is confirmed. --- As always, COMMENTS are welcome.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 11:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3015)
Y2K shutdown of Gazprom could leave Russia in dark
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/bdu.html

CIA warns of possible "severe energy shortages" in Eastern bloc if natural gas pipeline Y2K'Od.

USAGOLD
(03/06/1999; 11:36:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3016)
Gandalf, my wizardrous friend....
You lure me out of my weekend hideaway to say this:

It is by the very presentation of your thoughts, ideas, opinions and analysis in this venue that you accomplish precisely that for which you hope :

The placing of gold in the right hands for the millennium.

To you and all posters (not just here but throughout the internet) we owe a debt of gratitude.

Onward, fellow knights and ladies of the Golden Court..... and shapers of this Table Round. Let us pursue the elusive grail of wisdom as friends and associates...

The contest advances.....
USAGOLD
(03/06/1999; 11:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3017)
Original Call to Contest....Lurkers, First Time Posters Welcome
On the ramparts a lone figure can be seen pacing
His figure cut 'cross the leaden sky
Cape and hair blowing in the wind
one hand gripping his sheathed sword
the sun sets hidden 'hind a bank of clouds
evening draws nigh and the hall is now brightened
within Elsinore's walls...
His gaze moves toward the infinite horizon
His troubled eyes cloak nothing
His careworn voice still firm but concerned:

"To Y2K or not to Y2K that is the question
Whether 'tis nobler in mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of power plant blackouts
And phones that do not ring and water that does not run
Or make preparations against them? To store: to bottle;
What next? And by a cache of gold to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks that assets
are heir to, 'tis a balance devoutly to be wished.

To prepare or not to prepare: Ay there's the rub;
For in preparation we find consolation; or do we?
For it is in the acts of our fellows that this web is spun 'round us and nations fly beyond our grasp.
When we stop to look around us, must give us pause
That gives us calamity anew and not time enough to fend it
For who would bear the whips and scorns of computer breakdown without a proper shield.
There is more to this than meets the crafty eye
some tangles that need untangling....."

This lonely, knightly figure moves off rampart to the warmth of the hall where the knights and ladies have gathered near the table round.

"What say you of preparations? Of computers and assets lost.
Do we make our move now? Or do we wait for Winter solstice?
It is true that we can earn interest on our Treasury, or we can lose it all in the flash of an electrode."

"So how prepare you? Or do you prepare at all?
Bonus points will be awarded for those who find interest
in the unforeseen event, for it seems as time moves forward
It is not the one time event that will haunt us
but the army of events that follow in the New Year's wake.
Will this be the year we face our sea of troubles or
The year when Christ and his saints slept (to steal a comely title)."

-----------------------------------------
So we call a Contest at this Table Round of posting at the FORUM -- posts confined to the topic above. You can speak
whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian
Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever
comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be
bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of
two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends
and....... Remember, Hamlet's tragic flaw was to hesitate to his ultimate demise. So knights and ladies, do not yourself
hesitate!

Let the contest begin.

And in closing, the words of the Bard (one of the most famous passages in all of literature from the same play):

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry,
This above all: to thine ownself be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.

A tough guideline to follow in this age of debt, but there's wisdom here nevertheless. Onward, my fellow knights and
goldmeisters. To borrow the phrase of our own missing bard:
"We watch this new gold market together, yes!" And.......We honor him with a seat kept empty at this table round in hope
of his timely return. MK
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 14:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3018)
Just Out


MIAMI, (Reuters) - Corporate America is "in very good shape"
to deal with the millennium bug and there is no need to stockpile
food or head for the hills come Dec. 31, the top U.S. stock
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990306/16/stocks-millennium regulator said Saturday.
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 15:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3019)
Turbohawg
I'm working on a monster Y2K post, then I'll get back to Guardino's latest. No surprises, just extreme cause and effect. He's kind of the Gary North of Wall Street.

Regarding "Galt's Gulch", I've got a plan I'll mention later.
T. Remital
(03/06/1999; 15:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3020)
Y2K
I think being in the mountains in a winter community of only 400 people may turn out to be a
blessing when Y2K arrives. To be prepared we will have enough food stored up to last
6 months and living next to a river will provide plenty of fresh water. The nearest large city
is 50 miles away so it will be possible to make three trips on a tank of gas if necessary
to pick up any additional supplies. If every thing shuts down we will live off the
land by fishing and hunting. There is plenty of wood for fire place and stove so cooking
will not be a problem. Candles and lanterns will be our eyes at night if we have no power. We
will always have a large store of toilet paper and other necessary items to last at least six months plus storage of gas and oil for outboard motors and parts for same. We will have duplicates of bank statements, life insurance policies and all documents that are computer
controlled. Cash on hand will be in small denominations with nothing over a $10 bill plus some
small gold coins (1/10) in a secure place. GOLD is the best preservation of wealth, but can also be used as a bartering vehicle if need be. GOLD is on the top of the list for trading value for value.

DON'TS: Don't flash coins or brag about holding them---do stay away from crowds---beware of fires as there will be many candle and smal stoves being usesd by your neighbors. Do keep ample medical supplies on hand for emergencies. Have a battery operated radio on hand to keep in touch with the outside world. Let us hope that Y2K is not a problem but WE HAVE BEEN WARNED. THE TIME TO START IS NOW------





TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 16:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3021)
Sometimes, it's all about reducing the RISK
I invite you to revisite Financial Times...you've been there before if you followed Thurday's news. Have your password ready, good Knights.

LTCM: Hearings likely to focus on reform--FT 3/3
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q805d2.htm

HEDGE FUNDS: US Congress to limit risks--FT 3/2
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q13aa66.htm
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 16:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3022)
Maybe frivolous, but definately fun!
In addition the the good discussions we have at the Round Table, one of the things I enjoy are the great names that we have in the room. Even when they aren't currently speaking, there is a comfort in knowing that the room is filled with a variety of good souls, ready to step out of the shadows if the need arises.

I would like to request a roll call, to last for the duration of this weekend. Those of you who have already spoken today are fine...unless you have some clever re-introduction you are wanting to make of yourself. I would simply ask that you noble, but silent knights in the wings simply step into the firelight and say Hello. Nothing further is required of you. And should you choose to make a longer, follow-up address to the group, all the better. But for now, I'd just love the see the variety of names walking about the castle!

Would any of the visible knights care to support my request? ---Aristotle
NORTH OF 49
(03/06/1999; 16:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3023)
Packing-just about out the door for Sakhalin
HERE! Keep my torch ablaze my friend

No49
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 17:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3024)
North of 49
Fare thee well, my Friend...whereEVER thee may fare!

I have enjoyed our all-too-brief association. Always carry a gold coin, Dr. Jones, and no scrape will be beyond your repair. All my best... ---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 17:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3025)
No49 and Aristotle
So long Northy. It sounds like you are off on a real adventure. Stay warm and don't forget to write.

Aristotle- I second your motion. I have only been at the round table for two months, and I also wonder about the following:
1.How many visitors/lurkers show up here in a normal day?
2.Who among the familiar posters are the old timers, and how long have they been here?

I visit two other gold forums(fori?) fairly often, but the commentary comes nowhere near the quality that exists here. I haven't posted anywhere else for that reason. Is this the same experience others are having? Anybody?
Aragorn III
(03/06/1999; 17:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3026)
Answering the Roll Call
Greeting to all as I pass through your warmest of halls. An errand awaits with small patience. I must ride. Keep my seat for my return!
The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 17:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3027)
Silver Tongue
Thanks for the tip on Flash Net. Unfortunately, I did not find a listing for them in the Salt Lake Yellow Pages. I wound up signing on with Earthlink(Sprint)and am hoping for the best. (For the record, MSN was awful). Anyway, I just wanted you to know that I appreciate the time you took to respond.

It was just killing me not to be able to get my USAGOLD fix whenever I needed it. I think I'll be okay now.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 18:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3028)
Aristotle
Hello.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 18:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3029)
Message from GATA
Le Metropole members,

GATA is pleased to announce that we are now ready to
make an all out effort to mobilize the gold community
to confront those that we believe may have colluded
to hold down the price of gold.

Our web site www.gata.org can be viewed on the
internet and explains what the Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee is about. As the construction of our internet
site has been completed, we are ready to accelerate
the contribution phase of our campaign.

This week we will be contacting gold companies around
the world to elucidate our position and solicit their
financial support. We will explain that we believe
various financial institutions in the U.S. have colluded
to hold down the price of gold. We intend to launch an
investigation into the Long Term Capital Management
bailout, the Counterparty Risk Management Group and
to other situations that have been brought to our
attention.

It is also our position that many of these financial
institutions are short hundreds of tonnes of gold as
a result of "gold carry" trade positions. We believe
that, as a group, their short positions are greater
than one year's mine supply. We believe they know this
is a very dangerous position to be carrying and that
is why they may have "colluded" to keep the gold price
from rising. It is our intention to expose the size
of this short position.

Second, we are going encourage everyone associated
with the gold community to support GATA. We would like
them to verbally announce their support, make a
financial contribution if possible and, if they have a
website, to set up a mutually beneficial link up to
www.gata.org.

It is our goal to raise the funds necessary to retain
the services of an anti-trust law firm that will
spearhead the investigation.

Thus far, we have had serious discussions with
Philadelphia based, Berger & Montague on the issues we
are raising. It is our goal to retain them as our
attorneys. The karma seems right. Senior partner,
Merrill Davidoff, became a member of
www.lemetropolecafe.com the day before I appeared on
CNBC in behalf of GATA. As a result of that appearance
on TV, committee members, John Meyer and Chris Powell
and I flew to Philadelphia to meet with Davidoff
and two other Berger & Montague attorneys.

Davidoff is extremely knowledgeable about the gold
market and has a very good grasp on the fundamentals
of the gold industry. His associate, Jerome Marcus,
has become somewhat of a legend in that he was
one of the behind the scenes brains in the Paula
Jones case for 5 years.
New York Times-Jan.23-"..Mr. Marcus drafted legal
documents and was involved in many of important
strategic decisions in her lawsuit....As much as
any of Ms. Jones's attorney's of record, Mr. Marcus
helped keep Ms. Jones's case alive in the courts".

Berger and Montague won a $2 billion settlement in
the Drexel Burnham/Michael Milken case, and, among
many other cases was, or is, a litigant in the Exxon
Valdez case, the Orange County case, one of the
tobacco cases and one of the holocaust cases.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee believes that
we have enough momentum now to raise the funds
necessary to retain a law firm of this caliber
and to carry our agenda forward.

We ask you for your support and contributions.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Chairman
GATA
backlash
(03/06/1999; 19:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3030)
Roll call - Present & accounted for
Aristotle; Good idea. As a member of this Golden Table for some six months, I am an infrequent poster, but a regular visitor. (Almost daily because it is just too much to try to catch up if one gets behind more than a day or two.) The knowledge gleened from such a group as this has been a true blessing as well as a pleasure. My best to all and my Y2K post is in the pot simmering. One mustn't rush a dish that should be properly aged.

Best Wishes bl
turbohawg
(03/06/1999; 19:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3031)
rising rates
Once upon a time, when debt matters were still important, it was reported that the Klinton administration had refinanced much of the national debt short term to take advantage of falling interest rates. Now with interest rates on
the rise, the question of how much of that debt is short term becomes really important. I'm trying to locate info to determine the current numbers. Perhaps someone at the Forum knows exactly where to go.

This comes from a May '96 Special Report by Martin Armstrong of the Princeton Economics Institute (PEI) on Clintonomics. It can be found at: http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

>What is really scary is that 70% of our entire national debt is now funded 5 years or less and 33% is funded 1 year or less. This is simply nuts! It is as if the nation is financing everything on a Visa Card.<

The implication is that sharply rising interest rates could quickly cause interest on the national debt to consume the budget and make it difficult or impossible to pay ... i.e. by betting wrong on the future direction of interest rates the US govt could become the LTCM of governments.

Who do you think would do the 'bailing out' then ?? How voluntary do you think it would be ??
Farfel
(03/06/1999; 19:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3032)
************ SILVER $5.87 on March 12**********************
The greatest economic surprise so far this year has been the EURO's indisputable failure to shine relative to the US DOLLAR. There was much speculation that the EURO would perform well initially given that various nations unhappy with America had given indications they would send Dollar reserves back to America and replace them with EURO's. One nation that made a great deal of noise about the issue was TAIWAN. The government there is incensed by America's increasingly cozy relations with mainland China.

What happened? Why has the EURO been such a dismal performer to date?

It seems there are several notable reasons:

First, America seems to have done its best to improve relations with countries that indicated they would supplant US Dollar reserves for EURO's. In Taiwan's case, for example, America is willing to send new missle systems to the country. It is that little fact that has heightened tensions between Mainland China and America once again.

Secondly, America has undermined the world perception that Europe can ever take care of its own affairs. Clinton's abrupt intrusion into the Kosovo mess is simply America's latest assertion of its power to solve European problems. As a result, the EURO suffers while the US Dollar reaps the benefits.

Thirdly, America's continuing assault on Iraq constitutes an implicit, subtle threat to those Middle Eastern nations that might be considering tossing out US Dollar reserves in favor of EURO's. By its military action, America implies that those Middle Eastern nations that do not "cooperate" with America might suffer the same fate as Saddam some day.

Finally, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, the EURO arrived on the scene at a time of global currency crises (most notably those in S.E. Asia and Russia) and suffered as a result. The sad reality is that fiat currencies (excluding the US Dollar) are suffering from a loss of confidence all around the world. As such, given that the EURO is an entirely new currency, European nations should have done whatever was necessary to distinguish it from all other fiat currencies (especially the US Dollar!). Creating an appearance of intrinsic value would have made the most sense...and this could have been accomplished by BACKING the EURO with a very hefty percentage of GOLD. If the community of nations had known that each EURO is unequivocally a 50% gold-backed currency, then the new money probably would have knocked the wind out of the US Dollar from square one. Moreover, the EURO would have been so popularly received that even the hallowed Swiss Franc would have suffered an immediate weakening, thereby compelling Switzerland to issue an immediate announcement of a future INCREASE in gold backing (instead of recent Swiss hints that gold-backing will be removedfrom the Franc).

I am convinced that the past two years' sales/leasing of gold by European nations has done nothing other than to convey the appearance of nations desperately seeking to bail water out of their sinking ships. It is analogous to wealthy heirs compelled to go into their closets and sell all the family treasures in order to keep themselves financially solvent. Countries that have been able to hold onto their gold or even augment gold reserves appear to be the countries whose economic affairs are in the best shape. Europe should have recognized this fact and strongly linked its new currency to the gold metal. Although the EURO's birth has been a disaster to date, it is NOT too late for Europe to rectify the problem and and send a strong message to the world, specifically, "The EURO will indeed fly because we are NOW categorically linking it to gold."


Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 19:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3033)
Stranger --#3025
Same experience, same opinion. I read Kitco's rules and was heavily put off by their attitude about cultural idiom etc. Also their "directory format" is unpleasent at best.
Richard, Oregon
(03/06/1999; 21:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3034)
Ditto on the Forum
Stranger & Peter A - Ditto on quality of this forum. I used to read others also, to provide myself with an education. But after lingering here, I found there was no reason to look elsewhere. The exchange here is great (often over my head). Posters are truly helpful and friendly and the level of expertise is consistently "excellent".
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 21:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3035)
Aristotle

YO!
JA
(03/06/1999; 21:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3036)
Stranger & Aristotle
I believe MK"s counter would give you some indication of how many people frequent this site. But whether it is the same people many times or different people I couldn't tell you. I typically frequent this site daily and only post when time permits. My experience is similar to what you have expressed in terms of the quality of this site. In the other gold posting sites I frequent, I find myself speed-reading and maybe finding a nugget of interest every sixth or seventh item. On this site I read most everything and occasionally will download some of the best. I believe this site has gathered some bright articulate posters, maybe that is why some have likened this gathering to King Arthur's Court or Knights of the Round Table. I would place you both in that category as well as many others. I believe I have learned much from my visits here.

Stranger- your post #2995 was a "downloader"
Aristotle- I am still chuckling about your Y2k post. I would have to agree with your assessment, Gold coins are Y2k compliant.

Steve- a very interesting point you made on the impact on buying silver at it's height. And I was moaning to myself last week about the recent price rise in American Silver Eagles before I had an opportunity to buy some more.

By the way, for those not aware the story of King Arthur's Court while fictional is believed to have been taken from ancient legends of a real live King who established such a Kingdom, he was beloved by his people and proclaimed principles of honor and integrity. But that is a story for another time.

Now I must go to work on my weekend contest posts. I suspect predicting the price of silver by next Friday will be difficult, I am anticipating a fair amount of volatility.
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 21:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3037)
ET- I disagree about the cash issue.
Of course businesses will accept cash. Especially small businesses. It is the only representation of wealth-transfer most would understand outside of electronic version of the "production chits." I bet they won't take a check or a credit card, in the chaos of a bank run, who could know it they'd ever collect? But cash is....is, uh, well- pardon the expression- "real."

Besides what else could they do? Just lock the door and go home?

But now that brings up another question. Would the USG then just turn around and ban the greenbacks? I doubt it. There is still too much of the economy that wouldn't be able to cope with an all-electronic money. Again, too many small businesses are not wired and couldn't be by year's end. Of course that may not matter, the feds could just forge ahead with their "contingency plans.' Damn the torpedoes.

At any rate, I still think having a month's worth of expenses in cash is a prudent move at this time. Business will not be able to move to a hard asset/barter system overnight, too many haven't a clue.

GF
Gandalf the White
(03/06/1999; 22:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3038)
*******SI9H****** $4.95
The biggest surprise this year (so far) in economics and finance for me has been the continued common belief in the USA, that what has continued to happen in Russia and Brazil this year, similar to that which began in Thailand in July of '97, and passed through Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, is thought NOT to be possible in the USA !!!! I and the Hobbits have seen what happened in Thailand before the crash and what the conditions are today, but that is another story for a later time. Let me say only, that it was and is not a happy story ! Chok Dee Krup
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 23:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3039)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part 1
By coincidence of life style, our family finds itself well along on Y2K prep. We're on 32 acres of meadow and timberland straddling a small white water river which is fed by year-round mountain streams. There is a 30-psi gravity water system and unlimited fire wood. Since we don't hunt (yet), we have deer that stop when I whistle. There is also an Elk heard that comes through. In addition to the house, there's a huge shop building with a smitty shed containing an old hand-crank bellows forge. (I've never used it, but ??).Since we are eleven miles from even a grocery store, we already live on one grocery run a week. Our immediate area is populated by dairy farmers, loggers and construction people who, like us, service the coastal second-home market. Lots of people here have wood heat, gravity water, gas or diesel storage tanks. and many have generators . Also, in the event of economic collapse, there would at least be local beef and dairy products. We're 70 miles outside Portland and past the open farm country, so we should be free from an influx of city folk in the event of chaos. (Which I personally do not expect). As Richard has recently mentioned, people in this whole region are used to power outages and landslide road blocks which last for days. If things do shut down, there won't be a large number of people impinging on a minority of those who are prepared. Even though I don't think there will be civil unrest and famine, we will be upgrading the areas of food storage, wood heat and cooking, and alternative power.

This subject is opening up so many sub topics, that I think I will post in three parts. For now I'll go over food, medical, shelter and energy. Later, I'll cover physical and financial security and, finally, surviving in the envisioned brave new world that follows.

A couple of weeks ago there was a brief exchange regarding food and nutrition, which is so controversial a subject that it would make a group of stock brokers and gold bugs appear to be friends and lovers. So let me say that when health nuts refer to nutrients, they're including enzymes, soil based organisms and all sorts of micro-god-knows-whats which are devastated by the high heat levels of canning. Our extensive research has led us to believe that the best long term storage items include grains, seeds, honey, olive oil, dry milk and all the freeze-dried vegetables you can afford. Additional items of value are yeast, nuts, "green" whole food concentrate powder, salt and spices, tea, beverage powders, and fresh foods such as potatoes, apples, etc. stored in a "root cellar." And, for meat eaters, some dried meat (jerky).

Medical, is another subject that people get apoplectic over. There are natural remedies ranging from colloidal silver water to home brewed herbal immune tonics. Even though we have personally handled everything from flu to life threat with nutrition and herbal medicine, I won't get into the subject on this Forum. One good source is http://www.healthfree.com.

Shelter and energy are interwoven, since alternative heat and cooking methods are floor-plan dependent. I recently completed a design where the forced air return intake was in the vaulted living room which had a small wood stove. 2000 sq feet was amply heated by the minimal electrical energy required to run the blower. We are currently researching every available wood stove for the ideal compromise between a viewable fire and cooking potential, both as a bread oven and for pots and pans. There's some pretty nice stuff available, but at a price. Also then, where do you put it? We have a gasoline generator, but will probably get a new model in a diesel. I'm hoping there is something that will have a steady enough output to run the computers. Diesel fuel may be stored more safely and much longer than gasoline, and ideally one would have a diesel-powered vehicle. In addition to the obvious reasons, it's a lot less likely to be siphon bait. One more thing is the dependency on a generator for refrigeration. In the 1960s, I spent summers in a beach community that had no electricity. We had old propane operated refrigerators, (along with built in coleman lamps). Does anyone know if such a thing exists these day's?

Basically our desire for a self sufficient life style, and a passion for privacy and breathing room, gave us a"leg up" for Y2K.

I'll be back tomorrow on defense and finance.

Peter A. ( and Robin on food and medical)

JA
(03/06/1999; 23:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3040)
A guess at the price of Silver
March Silver at the close on March 12th ****$5.10**** We all know that predicting commodity prices into the future is all a matter of understanding the relationship of price and time. For those of you wondering how I came up with the above price at the time MK dictated to us? I simply began by updating the March silver contract in my Ensign commodities charting program. I checked the Stocastics, a little oversold but I expect a little more downward pressure. Then I reviewed the bollinger bands, March silver closed at the bottom band yesterday but the low of the day was below that, which also would suggest a continuation of that trend. Then I tried to draw long term and short term cycles, then hit the cycle forecast tool, then looked at the Elliott Wave Swing Lines, then looked at the window envelopes, then checked out the Fibonacci price levels, then reviewed the Fibonacci time ruler and Gann time ruler, then I constructed the Gann lines, then hit the Japanese Candlesticks display key, then looked at the moving averages, then reviewed the volume and open interest, then looked at several oscillators and the point and figure chart, then the relative strength index, and then the William's %R index. And then I simply guessed!!!

The greatest surprise for me this past year has not been the extremely overvalued equities market, but rather the extreme measures that the Fed, the Central Bankers, and the Executive Branch of the government have been willing to take to keep it propped up. The timing of the rate cuts and the bringing together the major New York banks to salvage LTCM was so blatant, it is amazing to me there was not some huge public and congressional outcry. If these supposedly competing banks can have meetings to discuss how to salvage LTCM, what is to prevent them from discussing commodities, interest rates, currencies and any thing else that might be to their joint advantage. This says to me the Fed knows they have created a monster bubble so big that their options have been eliminated. All they can do now is try to manage the bubble even if it requires desperate approaches. Unfortunately the average citizen does not seem to care about upholding the laws of the land in terms of banks breaking anti-trust laws, or the behavior of the President, as long as the economy is seemingly healthy.

While stock valuations are at all time highs many are suggesting they are really understated. The large stock option programs that have proliferated in recent years, dilute the value of the stock and yet don't get counted as inflation numbers for government wage increase statistics. I also do not believe the government statistics take into account the increase in the practice of delivering more pay in the form of variable pay, such as bonuses, incentive programs, gainsharing plans etc. I believe there has been fairly significant inflation in wages in recent years but not in base pay which seems to get measured.

So they have Humpty Dumpty up on the wall in the form of a major equities goose egg. I suspect they will try to keep him up there until July. Prior to Humpty Dumpty� the fall off the wall, the major media will publish reports of citizens over-reacting to Y2k fears, they really won't be over reactions but probably some minor thing in some small town, but the media will incessantly focus on it like they did in Rodney King Affair ( which caused a riot by the way) until the people are lead to believe these "over reactive nuts" are about to cause major havoc to the stock market and the economy. The government and others will issue warnings and once the believe they have fixed the mindset of the people, then they will allow this Humpty Dumpty to fall and all the Kings horses and all the kings men won't be able to put him together again. At least not right away like was the case in the 1987 correction. This will allow the fed and central banks to put blame elsewhere and then try to propose a new system to the people. Maybe a one World Currency to go along with a One World Government? Who knows, that's one scenario, but many others could be played out. I may try to suggest several of those in my Y2K post.


The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 23:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3041)
ET and Peter
Thanks, ET.

Peter-That sounds like an awfully good life to me, buddy. You might not even notice the passing of the millennium if you aren't careful.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3042)
Stranger
I didn't give you all the data yet, see,there's this mortgage -----
onlychild
(03/07/1999; 00:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3043)
Aristotle: Here Sir!
Lurking almost daily, family emergency, no time to talk.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3044)
JA
I agree with you on the rate cuts. If we are including events before 1 Jan. then the singular surprise #1 would be the between meeting, out of the blue, interest rate cut, the day beore options expired. I'll bet a lot of put holders and call writers were very suprised
beesting
(03/07/1999; 00:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3045)
COINS *******$5.42*******-SILVER- Wild Guess
Aristotle thank you and ALL the others for the input,I would just like to second what JA just stated msg.3036.

A few THOUGHTS on Y2K:Having moved out of the city long ago 1983,because at that time I felt unsafe,I feel some cities could(worst case scenario)become war zones if major disruptions last more than a week.Paranoid law enforcement,vs out of work drunken masses could erupt into Watts Riots all over again. One thing I haven't seen mentioned before is recreational vehicles,campers,motorhomes,and trailers self contained would be an excellent way to wait out the storm,also portable if things get to hot in your neighborhood.Remember to fill the fuel tank,and have a good map of the back country. Don't laugh,but another thing I haven't seen mentioned is the lowly coconut.People in tropical climates have survived catastrophic typhoons and hurricanes subsisting mainly on coconuts.Coconuts don't spoil easily and contain up to a quart of refreshing uncontaminated water in their centers.A person can live on about 3 coconuts a day for a very long time.At my local market,they cost about $1.00 a piece.The hollow shell can also be used for a bowl.

Change of pace to coins,this is all from memory so I'm certain to be off quite a bit on dates.South Africa introduced(as far as I know)the first Gold coin tied directly to the Worlds spot price of Gold around 1967.At that time Americans were still not supposed to own Gold bullion.The K-Rand became very popular in countries where Gold ownership was lawful.In My Humble Opinion between 1967 and around 1981 the world was evolve-ing into a world wide Gold standard thru the K-Rand all by itself.What Happened! If any of you remember,and here I'm very fuzzy on dates,an economic boycott was initiated against South Africa because of racial policies in South Africa,again,IMHO this was a detraction to take the focus away from what was going on with Gold.The BIS and all the Central Banks of the world were losing control of the money.They had to do something drastic. Next,a plan was initiated to keep the people of the world off the Gold standard when conducting business with themselves,here is the plan:
Since CB's were and still are the largest holders of bullion in the world they would undermine the K-Rand by issue-ing bullion coins from selected spots around the Globe.But,the coins would not be uniform in amount of bullion content or denomination,therefore cause-ing each issue to have a different value and therefore disrupting the natural evolution of the worldwide Gold standard that had been started by the South African K-Rand.I submit,the majority of the people of the world,Chinese,Indians,Africans,Russians,Brazilians etc. etc. etc.would rather be on a uniform Gold Standard than a paper standard.The way to do it is for the people to demand a standardized,by weight,and bullion content'set of coins that in a few years could be recognized by anybody in the world.Our Bard ANOTHER stated this would never happen because Governments don't want control of the money ever again in the hands of the people.Food for thought..........beesting
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3046)
Test
last post attempt rejected.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 01:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3047)
beesting
Great item about the coconuts, told the family nutritionist, she said "marvelous". Food for thought, or rather, thought for food.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 01:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3048)
My hat is off...
Not long ago, with Jordan's loss the world, too, lost a good friend. This past day the mid-east faced the departure of another good soul...Bahrain's emir, Sheikh Isa. A three-month period of mourning, and a five-day financial and bank holiday have begun as of Saturday.

Five days...(would make me edgey if I were on a PAPER standard). I think the good folks of Bahrain can properly mourn with certain peace of mind.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 01:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3049)
JA 03/06 #3040
In the subject box: *****price of silver*****
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 01:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3050)
The Roll Call continues
Thanks to everyone who has answered the call thus far. So far all have been familiar friends. Well met, one and all!

I agree with the high praise for the quality of posts to be found here. As reluctant as I was to issue the call for roll, which is a bit off-topic, I thought it would help us all build a bit of comraderie (sp?) and help launch us into a brighter, more productive future. I have found that I possess a bit more information than I ever thought I did, and that the voyage of discovery (or should I say retrieval) is launched only when a question is posed as a motivator. Am sure many of you are exactly the same.
With a gold interest as the powerful tie that binds us together, the more vocal among us are becoming of one mind through the sharing of our thoughts and concerns. Before long, we will sit at this Round Table silently nodding and blinking at one another with little in the way of fresh news, opinion, or understanding. The education must continue. We need our silent friends to begin by answering the roll, and eventually by providing new thoughts or concerns for our general consideration and deliberation.

Beesting...agreed. The Medium of Exchange as printed by any given government need not stand in the way of the world moving toward a gold standard. The nice thing about the Krugerrand in particular among the bullion coins, and the U.K. Sovereign for that matter, is the absence of a legal-tender face value. Knowledge of its weight is all that is needed. If I were tasked today with the job of establishing a single currency for the world, I would laugh! My job is already done. It is gold. I would simply have to organize a PR campaign to remind the uninitiated. And what name would I give to the currency units? Why, 'grams' of course! ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 02:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3051)
ET and Goldfly...what will be the value of cash?
I'm rather enjoying this Y2K weekend. It really lets a guy stretch his intuitive imagination toward predicting an unprecedented condition of extraordinary magnitude.

I would say this issue regarding physical cash is one worthy of full consideration by the Round Table. I agree with so much that is posted here, sometimes I forget what has been my own thoughts, and what I have absorbed from others. Any information, once gained, is a permanent part of the new-me, so in the long run it doesn't matter, but it makes for difficult discussion in the short term. So forgive me today and henceforth for improper attribution of the original thought.

This issue though...it is fresh and the lines are (for now) clearly drawn, though I have not yet pick a side. I have been internally conflicted over this for several months already. What will be the future value of cash in light of Y2K? ET suggests it will be nearly without value; Goldfly says the opposite. I can envision a future wherein both are right, but at different times...ultimately I think I'd side with ET.

The banks WILL run out of cash. They are already plenty worried, and are training their employees in preparation for dealing with a panicy population. Maintaining a semblance of calmness and confidence is their primary Y2K battle plan. I wish them all the best. Back to reality...

When the physical cash is withdrwn from the system of commerce (mid-year?) we will have to get by solely on electronic-type payments; credit cards, and checks (which are electronically cleared through the Fed). Will people worry about the safety of their electronic accounts, and their continued viability after the clock strikes 2000? Will they have similar concerns about their stock portfolios? I suggest the answer is yes. Stocks will be sold off, and people will go on electronic shopping sprees...buying up everyting of value as a Y2K contingency plan. All of this money chasing limited goods will effectively remove all pricing 'rules' as we know them. Like Germany, 1923? Virtually unlimited demand on a very limited supply of goods. It will be a manufacturing heyday. The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about.
QUESTION: Will a dual pricing system develop? I doubt that institutional stores like Wal-mart could adapt to it. Maybe a Mom & Pop shop would have duel prices...to satisfy their personal desire for real cash. Mmmmmmmmmmmm...probably not. The value of money will be going down the tubes.

OK...now POST-Y2K. If the electricity is still on, can the dollar ever regain any respect after you've used $50 for one can of beans? Doubtful.
If the electricity goes down for a period of time, first of all, what store is going to be open to engage in a cash sale anyway? Most commerce will occur between real people in a world where suddenly everyone is an entreprenuer like in the good ol' days before corporations ruled the earth, and none of us were born. As far as cash goes, this is where Goldfly's position finds its best argument. The physical stuff will be all that there is...and there won't be much compared to all the electronic stuff that went ZAP!-Bzzzzt... But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power? Additionally, you could expect the Govt to fire up its emergency generators and continue to crank out bills as fast as they can. How will they ever find the strength to stop? "Give the people what they want!" they'll say. Now we've REALLY got Germany 1923! All the entreprenuers with something extra to sell will not sell it for something of uncertain value. Sorry Goldfly, I think I've just now convinced myself that the dollar is doomed, outright. Will I or do I plan to have some cash anyway? Of course (done deal). I'm prepared for all eventualities. How else could I manage the calmness that is me? Peter's wonderful position is the best way to secure one's lifetime of achievement. But if that opportunity is not feasible, or if you can have your cake and eat it too, then gold is for you. The ultimate portable property. "The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it."--T.B. Aldrich

I encourage everyone else to weigh in on this too. I'm inclined to believe that in my haste I have over-simplified and over-looked something that might change my mind on the paper dollar's future. It seems certain however, that any value it would have would first have to pass through hell and back. "Not an easy journey," says Dante. ---Aristotle
JA
(03/07/1999; 03:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3052)
Y2k post
I view Y2k like a worldwide tornado that has been spotted. What is not known is where it will set down or how extensive the damage will be. I think all would agree this is a little bigger than a whirl wind. I have never lived in tornado country but my understanding is they are fairly unpredictable, that seems to be the case with the Y2k issue, everyone knows there are issues and the date it will occur, but no one knows for sure the extent that it will affect their part of the country or the world for that matter, their employer, their neighbors or them personally. If we know a tornado is coming, even if we think it may likely miss us, it is simply not prudent to do nothing unless we are absolutely certain it will not come our way. No one seems to be absolutely certain about anything pertaining to Y2k.

Just to site an example the company I work for has a plant where they produce a number of phosphate products, the phosphate is mined up in the mountains and then feed into a pipeline leading to the plant 80 miles away. There are over 2,000 computerized systems, motors, embedded chips and other gadgets required to run the plant. If the plant shuts down and the pipeline gets backed up that can be a costly undertaking. But it is also a costly undertaking to shut down the plant and pipeline and then slowly start it all up again. What will the plant do? They don't know yet but one can imagine similar scenarios in hundreds of thousands of plants and systems all over the world. I am sure they will deal with similar issues in atomic energy plants (which I have read take 4 months and electricity to shut down), and transportation, and food processing plants, and everything else. What happens in our lives without computers? Not much these days.

Anyone had personal or Company computer problems? How often do the computer experts tasked to fix the problem get it right the first time?

If any one has experienced trying to figure out something as simple as a spread sheet with several macro's in it, then they realize it is sometimes almost easier to redo the whole thing oneself. Many of the programmers trying to make these systems Y2k compliant are trying to figure out what some previous programmer was doing. Not an easy task.

Lets say the computer and systems people do a good job and so there are only minor disruptions and they do not take long to fix.

Other Considerations

A point that has been widely discussed is that fear and panic could cause stress to our systems, particularly our financial systems that may cause more damage than the Y2k bug itself.

When people start to add up the cost of minor disruptions to the bottom lines of numerous corporations worldwide will they decide to get out of equities?

The World is full of people with extreme ideologies, some of which may find Y2k as an opportune time to attempt terrorist acts.

While Russia's economy is bankrupt much of their military infrastructure is still in place. Why? Do they still have plans for world Domination? An interesting read on this subject is "New Lies For Old" by Anatoliy Golitsyn a former KGB officer who says the tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the peace movement was all planned prior to it taking place. He actually wrote the book before it took place and predicted much of what has occurred. There was an article in last weeks wall street journal stating there have been numerous recent attempts at getting into the pentagon computers coming out of Russia. Why?

What about our own government are they beyond using Y2k for mischief? There is much written surrounding the Oklahoma City Bombing to suggest not. If Y2k is not a issue why all the National guard and FEMA exercises. Are the Executive Orders common sense preventative measures or written to increase Federal control?

This country is special, and I believe there are both scriptural blessings and warnings pertaining to this land. Many of the earlier settlers of this country came here to gain freedom of worship. The founders of this country intended to preserve those freedoms through the constitution. When the people follow the precepts of God they will prosper in the land. But when they are ripe in iniquity the story is not so favorable. Are we as a people now ripe in iniquity in this country?

So What am I doing?

First Trusting in God. Whatever happens whether big or small, it will be okay I am sure of that.

I find it interesting that many of the things being suggested for Y2k preparations my family began doing years ago. My church has for years encouraged it's members to store a years supply of food, clothes and fuel where it is legal and practical. This world is an uncertain place with ongoing natural disasters, potential unemployment, health problems or whatever. Depending on what part of the world we live in we may be subject to Hurricanes, Floods, Tornado's, severe winter storms, earthquakes, volcanoes or numerous other things one could come up with. It is only prudent to attempt to be prepared for what ever the world may dish out. We try to do that, not necessarily because of Y2K but because it is a prudent thing to do. I don't claim to know if Y2K will cause major disruptions or not but I tend to think that it is likely that at some point in time those preparations we have made over the years may be a critical to us and possibly our neighbors.

I am fortunate enough to live is a small community ( that's if 200,000 is considered small). I don't see the same level of potential problems that might occur in a major metropolitan area like New York or L.A.

While we have been working at what I call self sufficiency for some time we are still learning. I thought I might share a little of what we try to do. I should emphasize that the years supply of food is limited to what would be considered the basics. Water is the most critical because a person can live many days without food but only a few days without water. We store some water and have actually used it on several occasions in the past when we have had power outages. It helps to be able to flush the toilets when the power is out. We have our own septic tank so we do not have to worry about the city sewer backing up because the pumps are not working. As you know sanitation can become a problem so I thought It would be critical to be able to flush the toilets. You all probably remember the old bomb shelters during the cold war. I read recently that if people actually tried to live in them for more than several days the sanitation conditions would have been unbearable.

We store some water in 1 gallon, 5 gallon and 50 gallon drums. We have a little hand pump for the 50 gallon drums since they are a little heavy to poor. We are also fortunate enough to have our own well. I recently bought a generator, even though it would be difficult to store enough fuel to run a generator for very long. I thought the generator use might be limited run the well pump if need be or to keep the freezer going to attempt to preserve the contents. With the generator I am now less concerned about storing water. I know there are also hand pumps that one can buy on the market to pump a well and I thought I would look into those over the summer. My generator is gas but was talking to a friend last night at dinner and he said he bought a propane converter for his and they are not expensive and then you can use either. I will probably get a converter since propane is easier and safer to store.

A very basic food item that keeps a long time is wheat. We store wheat but try to use it in our meal preparation. We have a grinder and my wife makes whole-wheat bread about once a week. The wheat grinder has a hand pump or could be run off the generator as well. We use store-bought bread as well but the homemade is healthier and for some of our meals we prefer it by far. We also use whole wheat muffins, pancakes, scones and other items. If you want something green you can always sprout wheat, which is also very nutritious. Growing up we ate cracked wheat cereal but I grew a little tired of it. You want to store things you typically eat in your diet so any change is not too drastic.

We also store rolled oats which is a part of my wife's granola recipe, it's really good, much better than store bought. However some of the other ingredients such as the nuts and coconut do not store as long as the rolled oats. We store some other grains such as rice and popcorn as well. We can a fair amount of fruit each year, applesauce, peaches pears, jams and syrups. We also freeze and dry fruits and vegetables. Of course if the power went out the freezer food wouldn't last too long. But then in January it may be cold enough that I could just move it outside. We have a large food storage area and stock the shelves and try to rotate it regularly. If you are not doing this, a good way to get started is when you go to the store is just buy double of what you normally would. After you do this for a while your pantry is full. Then date it so you use the oldest first. I think I mentioned in a previous post that we were challenged several years back to go for two weeks without going to the store. We didn't do too bad, we all prefer real milk to powdered.

This may sound like a lot of food but I have six children and they all tend to eat. Actually three are in college, two away and one at home but they will all be home for the holidays.

We raise a large garden each year. If you add up the time spent it would be cheaper to buy the food at the store, but the quality of the food can not be replicated in the store. Tomatoes, corn and carrots from the garden are far superior to what you can buy at the store. In the summer there are times when the entire meal is from the garden and home production. There is a real positive feeling of accomplishment, self sufficiency that comes by living off much of what we grow (at-least during the summer months). Plus it's a great a great place to teach children how to work, weeds always grow.

I have a wood-burning stove, again I think our gas furnace is more efficient and less trouble but there is something about the warmth from a live fire, that forced air can't replicate. The wood burning stove has a flat top and could be used for cooking meals. We also have a barbecue grill, propane and gas camping stoves and Dutch ovens. You can bake bread in Dutch ovens. I used to be a Scout Master and so have a fair amount of camping gear. I plan to have a couple of extra cord of wood on hand.

We have a number of books on herbs and natural healing, I am learning that herbs can cure most ailments and without the side effects that often accompany prescription medicine. Now if you need to set a broken arm or leg you probably need a doctor herbs won't do that.

I have accumulated some gold and silver coins for barter and whatever comes up. I figure gold for the big stuff and silver for the small stuff. I plan to have some cash on hand.

Everyone in the family has a bicycle that could be used for transportation if we ran out of fuel and needed to run errands. And my daughter has a horse.

I also have 40 acres of farm ground out in the country that would support livestock and crops if need be. My mining partner told me that during the depression, the way his family survived is they grew row crops on some acreage in the country and then trucked it into the city and sold it. If worse came to worse maybe I could do that.

I think another prudent element of self sufficiency is to be out of debt. I am not there yet as I still owe on my house. Now if gold and silver stocks decided to make a significant move before the end of the year I might consider using the gain to pay off my house.

As a last resort I also have 40 acres of mountain property bordering 100 acres that my brother owns, there is a fair amount of game on the property and we are planting fish in a pond. The summers would be fun but the winters would be a little tough.

I am sure that is more than anyone wanted to hear so I am off to bed.





AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3053)
excuse me, folks...
testing

testing

testing

testing

testing
testing

SteveH
(03/07/1999; 10:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3054)
*****$5.55******Silver close on 12th
Biggest suprise in economics or finance so far this year? You could say that Brazil devaluation was the biggest suprise but then you might have to eat crow when China does the same. But these weren't suprises, for those in the know knew it would happen. No, the biggest suprise was the long term bond rates going up to around the 5.61% level. I believe most folks expected that it would drop, not rise. This one fact and this one fact alone will be the greatest determining factor of all factors on the dollar, the yen, and the gold carry trades. Why? Because it the long term bond is market driven and reflects the risk building in the bond market. Where goes bonds goes the rest. eom
AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3055)
bucks[1] and bucks[2]


Regarding Aristotle's (3/7/99; 02:55:36MDT - Msg ID:3051) ------

"All of this money chasing limited goods will effectively remove all
pricing 'rules' as we know them. Like Germany, 1923? Virtually
unlimited demand on a very limited supply of goods. It will be a
manufacturing heyday. The real economy will not slow down this year
as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand
as never before."

Right. Paradoxically, Y2K-induced tangibles buying will act as a
stimulant to a beleaguered real economy. In this way, if Y2K were not
an objective problem (i.e. if there were not in actuality billions of
lines of broken code), the Y2K-induced movement toward tangibles and
away from intangibles and electronic "assets" might actually save our
asses from a total collapse and long depression. Of course, even then
there would be wrenching disruptions (e.g. millions of ruined
"investors" clinging to amazon.com at $10, praying for a recovery),
but with the real economy supported so powerfully it might not be
catastrophic. I fear, however.....

"As far as cash goes, this is where Goldfly's position finds its best
argument. The physical stuff will be all that there is...and there
won't be much compared to all the electronic stuff that went
ZAP!-Bzzzzt... But again, how much respect can you have for a buck
that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?"

This thing is unprecedented and very difficult to think about. We
will have several $trillion of stock market and bond bloat, suddenly
seeking (or at least a some good deal of it seeking) physical cash,
metals and tangibles of all kinds. How would this actually work out?
That is, if ANYthing tangible -- including fiat bucks (the PHYSICAL
greenbacks, that is) -- is suddenly "where the action is"? And it is
worth noting that the supply of physical greenbacks is quite limited:
only about $450 billion (of which at least 2/3 is out of the country
and may have a very hard time getting back, post-Y2K) in circulation,
with about $200 billion in reserve. This is really chump change, in
the big picture. I wonder if it is possible, in an even
moderate-disruption post-Y2K world, to print and distribute money
fast enough (that is, print PHYSICAL money, mind you) to cause
inflation. Gary North has pointed out that the Bureau of Engraving
and Printing already operates 24x7, and that it takes 2-3 YEARS to
get delivery of a new intaglio press (the special presses that they
use for greenbacks). In other words, the system is already maxed-out
and without timely recourse in this world in which everything is
operating smoothly, all infrastructure is functional, etc. I suppose
they could trash the $5 and $10 plates and switch to $50 and $100,
but fast enough? What about distribution? What about that special
paper? What about....? And to top it off, keep in mind that entire
generations have now been brainwashed into thinking that greenbacks
are money, the only money (and, correspondingly, those generations
are utterly unaccustomed to thinking of gold and silver as money).

IN OTHER WORDS, could not popular perceptions, combined with a unique
(Y2K) set of circumstances, combined with the perennial need for
money of SOME/any sort, synergize to cause a quite novel and
unexpected outcome? Is it possible that we goldbu... er, goldHEARTS,
with our superior understanding and awareness of the "inevitable"
fall of the buck, may be outsmarting ourselves?

The answer requires a key distinction: where buck[1] = ELECTRONIC
bucks, and buck[2] = PHYSICAL greenbacks: the fate of the buck[1] IS
inevitable; the fate of the buck[2] is questionable, and depending on
the precise nature and extent of Y2K disruptions, could be very
favorable for a long time.

Me, I'm just more convinced than ever of the primacy of TANGIBLES
of any and every sort. Convert those symbols into actuals, I say.
Like oatmeal, It's the right thing to do.

AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3056)
"Hoarding" versus Stockpiling

Thought you all might be interested in a short essay I am preparing:


"HOARDING" versus STOCKPILING

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am concerned about the use of the pejorative "hoarding" to refer to
stockpiling or even any material preparation. I think that this is not only
counterproductive from the standpoint of Y2K preparation, but dangerous, as
it may precurse civil rights violations and worse.

Duncan Long remarks that "purchasing food when it is plentiful and storing it
for an emergency is not hoarding (despite what some government workers and TV
commentators might have you believe). Storing food during a time of plenty is
stockpiling. Hoarding will be done after a disaster when those who didn't
prepare strip grocery shelves and squirrel away the food for their own use"
(http://www.michaelhyatt.com/overview.htm). I agree, and I would add that
making a deposit each month in a savings account or in a mutual fund would
never be called "hoarding"; that would be called "prudent saving" or
"investing for the future". So it is with food and other consumables, as long
as you are accumulating it while there is still plenty for everyone.

Consider for a moment the subtle class-baiting in the "hoarding" epithet. Is
not the obscene concentration of wealth, everywhere evident, a most egregious
form of "hoarding", and indeed, is not capitalism itself a veritable
celebration of same? Through this lens, could anything be more absurd than
the depiction as greedy hoarders of individuals wishing to exchange a few
Federal Reserve Notes for things of real value? Are not hundred-billion
dollar hedge fund operators, currency speculators and other magnates of the
casino economy the real "hoarders"? And if you want to bring it down to
individual terms, is not the bidding-up of stock prices to absurd,
unsustainable levels (e.g. amazon.com at $200/share!) by millions of
speculators a form of hoarding? Their hoarding has made it difficult for
sensible investors to venture into stocks with any measure of confidence. The
prices are just too damn high.

Besides, the "hoarding" epithet disparages the concept of saving anything, as
though one would be remiss for not devouring or spending on the spot whatever
comes into one's posession. Would it be preferable, rather than putting by a
few essentials, to hurl oneself into the typical American consumption orgy --
beanie babies, "sport-utility" vehicles, Big Macs, cell phones, and heaps of
other trash, washed down with barrels of petrol. This orgy has gone on for
decades with scant protest; NOW, suddenly, prudent individuals get tarred as
"hoarders" for accumulating water and brown rice!

Further, this issue of "hoarding" probably will be seized upon by demogogues
seeking easy scapegoats when things heat up, and could become an excuse for
still more-intrusive state snooping, or worse. Ed Yourdon has remarked that
"stockpiling extra food in 1998 might be considered unnecessary or crazy, but
it could be labeled 'hoarding' in late 1999 and declared illegal"
(http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2ksafehaven.html). Indeed it could be.
"Hoarders" -- those who chose real goods over state-issued promissary notes
(cash, bonds) and especially electronic representations of same -- may even
find themselves held up as enemies of the people, and the stage will be set
for such outrages by those referring to stockpiling with the pejorative
"hoarding", or by describing any and all individual preparation efforts as
somehow selfish, anti-social or "dysergic". The irony in all this is that
precisely the opposite is true: personal preparation and stockpiling are,
regardless of individual motivations, inherently supportive of families,
neighborhood and community.

Here's why: Increased purchasing of food and other consumables now, and at
least through mid-1999, will filter through the system and increase supply of
finished goods. (The "invisible hand" has its uses, in a pinch.) Early
stockpiling will not deprive anyone else, and will actually INCREASE the
supply for others later. (There is even some evidence that this has begun to
happen; see: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/3508)

It is important to buy now while the Just-In-Time systems are functional and
have a chance to respond to your purchases. And it is likely that continuous
high demand through and beyond 1/1/2000 will have a salutary effect on
supplies well into the "crunch" period (later on in 2000), unless there are
catastrophic distribution problems. Remember that there is a huge overhang of
cheap bulk commodities (soybeans, grains, pork, sugar, etc.), available at
incredibly low prices, that are waiting to be incorporated into finished
goods. You can stimulate this production process in all its phases -- i.e.
you can support the real economy and help increase the supply of finished
goods for everyone -- by adding your money energy to the aggregate demand,
the sooner the better. Production and distribution systems, even if crippled
after the rollover, will respond to increased demand unless the
infrastructure melts down catastrophically (in which case all bets are off,
anyway).

(Of course the longer term goal is to move toward local materials and
finished goods, and away from dependence on non-local or foreign stuff. But
it will take time to develop local production methods and infrastructures;
probably 5-10 years, minimum. Meanwhile the only option is to support the
real economy as we find it today -- as much local stuff as possible,
supplemented with lentils from Minnesota, t-shirts from South Carolina,
whatever. On the other hand, if Y2K is "bad" enough, the conversion to local
sources may have to be compressed into a year or two... one of many potential
blessings.)

Well-prepared individuals will act to reduce the ultimate stress on the
system when and if the crunch comes. Having stocked-up early, they will be
out of the way (not out shopping and scrounging, adding to the congestion)
when the serious demand gets underway, and of course they will not be taking
away a share of (then-limited) finished goods. Well-prepared individuals will
be among those who do NOT have to rely on emergency rations and services from
the Red Cross, or FEMA, or whoever -- no doubt to the great relief of those
(then-swamped) organizations. And last but not least, such individuals will
have the wherewithall to lend a hand, share with others, and generally be an
asset rather than a liability to the community.

Whether or not the prepared will have the WILL to share with others is
another matter, one of individual conscience. But in any case being
well-prepared gives one the OPTION of behaving graciously, supporting
unprepared friends and family, and perhaps others in the neighborhood -- the
old, young, weak or sick -- as supplies allow. The well-prepared ones could
even wind up saving lives. Being without those options serves no one.

The issue of being well-prepared ought not be confused with the issue of
ownership, or the issue of who, ultimately, will use the stuff. (Consider:
you can GIVE IT ALL AWAY, retaining NONE for yourself, if that is what your
conscience dictates.) The point is to stock up now while supplies are
essentially unlimited and production and distribution are still plastic --
i.e. while your efforts are still NOT "hoarding".

Last, there is the subtler matter of the way in which preparedness and
stockpiling express a faith in the individual, family and community, and acts
to increase citizen empowerment, while implying less than perfect faith in
authority. This point was made excellently in the 12/22/98 issue of the "Y2K
Alert" (an email newsletter from alertsend@@y2knewswire.com):

Why has Y2K preparedness been so loudly scorned? Here's the answer:
because preparing for Y2K calls into question everything that big
business and big government wants you to believe about our country.
They want you to think the banking industry is strong. But if we all
pull out a little cash, the banking system crashes, revealing its
weakness. They want you to think the stock market is strong. But if
we all sell a few stocks, the market plummets and reveals its
weakness. The examples could continue, of course, but you get the
idea. PREPARING for Y2K is intellectually inconsistent with the
ideas government officials want Americans to hold.

Right. I would only volunteer that building up a reserve of things of real
value (as opposed to paper "money" or, worse, entries in some electronic
ledger) is HIGHLY intellectually inconsistent with the ideas government
officials, central bank ministers, and corporate lords want Americans to hold
-- inconsistent and perhaps even subversive. To question the value of the
state's promissary notes ("money") is to question the legitimacy of the state
itself, and that, of course, is the Ultimate Heresy.

-----------------

A bizarre endnote: I wrote the words "enemies of the people" (above) several
weeks back, before Peter De Yager -- a Y2K commentator -- actually used that
phrase to refer to people asking for their money from the banks!
Unbelievable. I knew it was going to happen; I had NO clue as to how FAST.
This is getting scary.


SteveH
(03/07/1999; 10:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3057)
Why too Kay? A simpleton's view.
I believe the road to Y2K will be the one trodden with the most risk.
Further, the international banking system is the one at most risk. For
the rest, I believe having two weeks worth of cash, food, and fuel will
be all that is necessary for a comfortable entry into the new year. Let
me explain.

Buy on rumor, sell on news. The traders amongst us know this adage. It
is true, isn't it? People talk of "the expectation is built into the
price" all the time. The road to Y2K is exactly the same thing. People
will expect the worst. They will stress the banking system and the food
system. Any Y2K elements will be stressed and then, on the day of the
event, people will wake up and say, "Hey, this isn't as bad as I
thought." Within weeks to a few months you will see ads in the bargain
corners of all communities with generators at fire sale prices, cases of
food being given to charities and churches, and Silver and gold coins
selling at a discount to the spot market -- this as people unwind their
preparatory stance to Y2K.

It is this trip to year-end that will be the most prolific eye-opener to
our banking system and to our food distribution channel. I envision
banks may take a few extra holidays and enforce cash withdrawal
limitations at ATM's (more strict than normal) and at teller's booths. I
believe the National government will introduce measures to ensure that
credit cards and checks are legal tender and must be accepted for all
debts public and private. They may even back up credit cards and checks
with something similar to an FDIC guarantee. If they can pull that off,
which I expect that they can, then the banking crisis may be averted. If
commerce looses faith in checks and credit cards then cash and precious
metal will assume greater importance and commerce will be harmed and
recovery slow.

Food distribution will be affected by Y2k. As people continue hoarding
food in greater numbers inventories in grocery distribution centers will
at first dwindle but if the suppliers to grocery chains gear up to
handle this we may actually see an increase in available long-term food
stuff. As the demand increases we should see this preparatory supply
knocked down in size and as the year-end approaches we will probably
receive news of major metropolitan areas whose 9-11's and IGA's can't
meet the demand and close their doors. This might incite some riots but
I believe these will be isolated cases. American's and Canadian's are
marvelously sharing people and I believe that most communities will join
forces to overcome and shortages caused by the Y2K event.

As the actual year 2000 enfolds, I believe companies who didn't
properly prepare for the Y2K and notably larger companies will be hurt
or put out of business due to their lack of preparation. I feel, though,
that the vast majority of small businesses will not be affected or
minimally affected by Y2K. Why? Because small business rely on modern
PC's and can easily adopt quicker than the mammoth companies who rely on
the miles of COBOL code that will be most affect by the Y2K event.

Government agencies who also rely on 'old code' will also be affected
but this won't end the services they provide merely slow it down.
Knowing governmental agencies as I do, I expect that they all have
contingency plans that they have prepared which will allow them to
provide their primary services in the event of computer failure. It
will merely slow down the dissemination of those services. The adage
"hurry up and wait" will become the moniker of the day.

So is Y2K going to be the big bad bully everybody thinks it will be?
Yes, in as much as it is a self-fullfilling prophecy, but no in that the
contingencies of those who are to be affected will get them by with
reduced services or no impact at all as people will learn to marvelously
adopt to what they thought would be Armageddon but only turned out to be
an exercise in "now what are we going to do with all this food?" Buy on
rumor and sell on news, eh?

SteveH
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 11:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3058)
Excellent!
Peter A, #3039 - Excellent Part 1 Y2K post. There are numerous posts which I will copy to a Y2K directory in WordPerfect for further review. The posts are creating some outstanding ideas and thought for myself. Propane equipment, I believe, can be found at RV parts dealers. Call first, there is a big one on I5 south of Portland near Wilsonville.
ET
(03/07/1999; 11:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3059)
Cash

Hey Goldfly and Aristotle. Yes, I've had this discussion over at csy2k with a few others. It is an interesting topic. The thread there originally started off as someone wanted to know when to take out all their cash to beat the crowd. It evolved into a discussion of cash in general and what it actually is.

To ascertain what might be the best idea concerning money and y2k, one must define what all forms of money are and how they might be affected by various scenarios. My view is that nearly all cash and credit in today's world is fiat. In other words, they require a functioning banking system to hold any value at all. Fiat is not inherently valuable as say gold, wheat or any other tangible asset. It is a representation of debt. It is stated on it's face as to what it actually is. It has value as a trading medium only if confidence in the system that supports it remains. It has no intrinsic value.

When put into the context of y2k, various scenarios come to mind but the one overriding concern is confidence. How is confidence maintained? Today, confidence is maintained by daily usage and the resulting purchasing power of the underlying fiat. If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets. It will suffer further devaluation if governments attempt to flood the world with more fiat without a performing loan to back it. Neither scenario above will help keep confidence in the purchasing power of fiat. Banks will do their best to instill confidence in customers ability to access fiat but will unlikely be able to instill confidence in it's purchasing power since this is beyond their control.

This is the reason I see no advantage in hoarding great sums of cash as a means for wealth preservation. As you mentioned Goldfly, it may retain some value as a trading medium initially (hence having a month's supply may be beneficial in some circumstances), but it is the least likely form of money to hold purchasing power.

Secondly, the nature of the monetary system will not support such a move to cash. Banks will have to ration cash. Does this imply that cash would be worth more? I don't think so. My checks or dedit cards would have equal purchasing power. As long as banks are open, cash will have the same purchasing power as any other fiat. If for some reason the banks were to close for any length of time, all fiat would become worthless as the system that supports it is no longer intact to facilitate it's use as a trading medium.

I would further contend that it is impossible for banks to go bankrupt in today's monetary system. This is a charade the bankers have foisted on us. Reserve requirements can be dropped to zero thereby making unlimited credit available. Of course, this would not help the purchasing power of cash either. As long as power and telcoms are up, the banks will likely be up, with only the purchasing power of their medium in question.

All in all, I see no advantage in hoarding cash. If the goal is to be able to pay bills, etc., then leaving your money in the bank will be just as useful and more convenient. If the goal is to preserve wealth, it is the worst choice of all. If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed. I would accept your gold or maybe your wheat if I needed it. In the end, the citizens will decide by their actions what fiat will be worth. In any case, I don't see it becoming more valuable than hard assets.

ET
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 11:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3060)
"We Will Always Remember"
Words from a patriotic song.

Most of you remember someone saying "The Challenger Exploded," "The Berlin Wall is down," "They just shot Kennedy." But I imagine not all of you are old enough to have heard what I did at the age of seven when a friend of my father's ran out from listening to the car radio, exclaiming, "The Japs are bombing Pearl Harbor!" That was the end of the world as we knew it, in many ways.

There may be some parallels here. I just read JA's superb post, and it seems that our dependency on computer technology is absolutely awesome. I had thought that a lot of functions could be bypassed at the pull of a handle or the turn of a wrench, but now I wonder.

When World War II hit there were very few synthetics. If the source country for something like rubber, for instance, became occupied, then there just wasn't any. We grew food in "Victory Gardens," huddled behind blackout curtains at night keeping warm in front of fires burning cannel coal. Dad put on winter gear and took shifts atop the town's tallest building, watching for enemy bombers.

Younger fathers went to war and young people everywhere enlisted, many who were under age lying to risk their lives. We had ration books for many foods and for gasoline, even for shoes, if things got worse. I remember on the radio, after a young Ricky Nelson had spilt the ketchup bottle, Harriet lamenting, "That was 18 points a bottle." If I wanted candy, I ate my cereal without sugar and put a teaspoon-full in a jar. Then when I had saved enough, I would boil it in water with vegetable dye to make my own.

So, we may enter a period where supplies are held up in production and delivery, burning wood for heat, hunkering down at night because there is no gasoline to waste going about. Some may stand neighborhood watch for thieves and vandals.

There was a buzz word back in '42, "Mobilization." That will be the key to solving Y2K.

Last week at the local Chamber of Commerce meeting, a subject was the struggling web site's failure to pop up on searches. Apparently the person responsible wasn't handling the problem, so the Chamber brought in some high school students who fixed up everything. (I noticed that one of the first "adult" chores my grandson mastered was the ability at age two to work all the buttons on the VCR).

I've already seen it suggested somewhere that the "Mobilization" to deal with the Y2K bugs could include recruiting computer savvy students to fight the battle against the hoard of enemy rows of abberated code.

Perhaps our salvation will once again be the army of our youth going out to fight the battle of this new World War. The machinery to produce and deliver will not have been bombed out this time, It will just need to be re-manned.

There's a philosophical quip that has passed down Robin's side of the family; "The Bible said it came to pass, it didn't say it came to stay."
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 11:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3061)
AEL, ET
Fantastic posts. What a day this is turning into on The Forum.

AEL, way back, I think during the Cuban Missle Crises, Time Magazine had a photo of a grocer who had made up extra large bags with a band of large letters around the top saying "Hoarder". Wonder what it did to his business?
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 12:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3062)
Steve
You came in at 5.55 and I logged in yesterday at 5.542. (#3004 @ 00:18) Just wondered if you noticed. I'm glad to be agreed with by the Forum chart master, maybe were right!!
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 12:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3063)
Steve
Your scenario in #3057 is the one I believe will most likley prevail. You have laid it out with great logic and perception.

Yet, when I read other more disaster oriented posts I get torn. I keep seeing Tyve in "Fiddler On the Roof" saying "On the one hand, --on the other hand,-- on the other hand---I have no more hands---"

However, I keep coming back to what you depicted as being most probable. Good job!
T. Remital
(03/07/1999; 13:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3064)
MAY THE BEST MAN WIN
I feel that the surprising event of late is the almost unoticed rise in the money supply in the
US. Of all the factors that can make or brake a economy this is one area out of control with
M-3 rising 20 billion just last week...It's like we are in a poker game and the banker is
manufacturing chips under the table .. decreasing the value of the chips on the table///You continualy hear that there is no inflation by the hot shots on wall street...JUST WAIT!!!!
****SI9H--5.025***** [close march 12]
T. Remital
(03/07/1999; 13:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3065)
LOST ---NOT FOUND
Just browsing around ...kitco #245238--GOLD MISSING IN FORT KNOX-- If enough people in
the financial world become suspect and put pressure on the FED by demanding a independent
audit of the supposed 262 million ozs. of gold in fort knox, GATA may find the real motive
for suppressing the price of gold . What are your thoughts on this ?





JA
(03/07/1999; 13:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3066)
*******$5.10****** price of March Silver on March 12th
Michael if this could be considered an addendum to post # 3040.

Richard, Oregon

Thanks, you read directions much better than I.
DxAu
(03/07/1999; 14:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3067)
'Dollarization'in Latin nations
That's the subject of an article in todays (3/7/99) San Jose
Mercury News (CA) which seems a worthwhile read. Sorry, I can't post the article but it might be available at www.mercurycenter.com sooner or later. It discusses the
possiblity of Argentina and perhaps much of Latin America
using the dollar as a defacto official currency. It would
seem to have the benifits of the euo but with the risks of
not being able to control interest rates related to it or
the local government being able to inflate/deflate it at
their whim. It also claims the US has $500 billion currency float with 2/3 of it outside the country. Thus we benefit roughly $20 billion a year in 'seignorage' which sounds pretty nice but that ignores the risk of having a lot of the float returned to us someday for whatever reason. TIA for your thoughts on all of this.
SteveH
(03/07/1999; 15:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3068)
Peter
Thanks. $5.55 was a mere coincidence. Price was more a guess than anything else.

Steve
eulu
(03/07/1999; 16:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3069)
******4.82******
Long time lurker--infrequent poster--seems I learn more by listening than by talking. Lurk daily--thoroughly enjoy the opinions expressed by the "prophets" that most frequently post on this "round table".

IMHO the most devastating event of the last year has to do with commodity depression and its resultant negative impact on inflation. When inflation is kept at bay by reduced prices of essential items such as food and energy, the end result will be devastating when these commodities return to their previous normal levels (whatever that may be) and we all have to pony up to pay "fair" prices. What will fall in value at that time to keep inflation at bay? With current commodity deflation, the full drop has not been passed through to the end user, but invariably, when prices reinflate, the price paid by the end user inflates commensurate with the commodity price increase, creating an overall further increase in price from commodity value to retail. Is inflation at bay???

Another concern is th ebalance of trade deficit. This is constantly referred to in terms of dollars. What about units? Imported goods are being purchased from countries primarily with devalued currencies. Consequently each dollar (US) is buying more units, consequenly the impact of this deficit (reduction in US factory output) is far more devastating than would appear on the surface. US primary employment stimulus today are service jobs, not production jobs. No one will have to beat us in aconflict, just shutdown the flow of critical "units" that we no longer manufacture and we are in trouble. We cannot fireup overnight to bring back home the production of goods that have been allowed to be manufactured overseas so as to give "our" consumers a better price on "units". Guess wherea lot of the money to stimulate the economy and the stockmarket has come from? Low "unit" consumer costs--hey, this even frees up more takehome $ for USG to get their hands on. THIS SCARES THE HELL OUT OF ME!!!!

WHOOPS--TIME TO GET BACK TO LISTENING!
Farfel
(03/07/1999; 17:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3070)
Y2K...Prepare, Prepare, Prepare...OR ELSE, Be Left Behind!
In my heart of hearts, I wish I could cast away my cynicism and believe in the ceaseless linearity of America's good fortunes this past decade. I wish I could join the bullish mania running rampant on Wall Street, safe in the certitude that all is truly well with America. If I could join the Pollyannas, then I would sleep so much better at night.

Yet, I cannot. No matter how hard I try, for reasons unknown to me, everytime I examine the current American condition, I see remarkable blemishes threatening to develop at a moment's notice into suppurating sores.

So, I remain an existentialist with a strong premonition that tomorrow will not be a replication of today, but will confront America with a multitude of new problems the country failed to address these past few decades, instead choosing to sweep them under the rug.

Even if Y2K proves to be a relative "non-event" with respect to America's infrastructure, unfortunately, the Pandora's Box has been opened, computer-phobia has been unleashed, and the "educated" segment of the public is undeniably nervous
There is no conceivable way now in which the fast developing mass anxiety can be placed back inside Pandora's Box. How can it?

If the President and his entire cabinet were to appear on every major TV network and assure everybody that Y2K is a mere trifle, who would believe them? After all, the country's chief executive stared a nation in the eye and lied through his teeth for over half a year?

Who is going to put their complete faith in the local police or military to ensure law and order during a Y2K crisis?
Simply go to a gun store (as I did recently here in Los Angeles)...and be amazed at the lengthy wait (over ONE hour) to buy guns, not to mention the unavailability of the most popular models.

Who will put their faith in the inviolability of America's US Dollar? After more than a year of witnessing one fiat currency collapse after another, who is not growing wary of paper money? Just head to your local coin dealer and discover his frustration and anger over his inability to secure various gold and silver coins from the US Mint. Coin rationing may allow gold/silver shorting speculators off the hook for now...but it's ultimate result will be to increase populist fears exponentially, thereby ensuring a PM coin BUY panic at some point in the future. If Americans are blocked in their attempts to buy Eagles or Maple Leafs, they will simply create a Black Market in those items...or else turn to Pandas, Krugerands, Koalas, Philharmonics, or whatever other hard currency is available. The government can only succeed in frustrating the public's appetites, but it cannot shut them down.

Try and buy electric generators or special packaged survivalist foods...there is a shortage of everything and the shortage itself is a Y2K crisis as it is tangible evidence of a national loss of confidence.

Y2K is shaping up to become America's equivalent of medieval Europe's Black Death. At that time, the very idea that a particular individual might be afflicted with the sickness caused people to ostracize the individual and take proper precautions against contamination. In other words, it did not really matter whether or not the person actually had the plague; only the POSSIBILITY that such a person was infected caused mass hysteria. Analogously, it is simply the POSSIBILITY of Y2K disruptions that are throwing an entire globe into a frenzy.

The first true test of Y2K problems is only six months away. On September 9, 1999, various computers will read that date as a message to shut down. Since embedded systems cannot be reprogrammed but must be replaced...since the interconnectivity of computer systems facilitates corruption from "sick" computers to "healthy" computers...then it seems hard to believe there will not be any notable problems.

So, for those who continue to believe that the Y2K problem is still so far away, their education is still incomplete.

What Y2K problem will surface that no one can foresee? What spontaneous development will trigger a panic? Again, I think it will actually have nothing to do with computers; rather, it will be some disaster related to the ANTICIPATION of Y2K problems. If I were to hazard a guess, I would suggest it might well be a domestic stock or bond market crash. Such an event would thoroughly undermine Americans' belief that their government has matters under control...and the contagion of doubt would metastasize into all other aspects of daily life.
Gandalf the White
(03/07/1999; 17:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3071)
Welcome "eulu"
Welcome and thanks for the slant on commodities! Looks as if you have the lowest SI9H quess so far. Even beat my low number.
<;-)
OverHerd
(03/07/1999; 18:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3072)
Hello
I have decided to post today for roll call purposes and since I never did properly introduce myself. I still haven't had a chance to read all of the posts from the past week. I am also not well educated on economic subjects so it takes awhile for some of the topics discussed to sink in.
I am a 35-year-old aircraft mechanic with a major US airline. I first became interested in precious metals after reading the book The Great Reckoning and realizing that I needed to start taking charge of my life. Things weren't going bad but always had this nagging feeling that there was more to life than I had previously assumed. I started calling around for coin prices when I reached CPM, I thought I was calling a local Minneapolis number so I was surprised that I had reached Denver, immediately I knew that my search had ended. It was something that can't be explained logically, just a gut feeling, but after dealing with Mike since '93 I know I made the right choice. We worked out a strategy that best suited my financial situation. Now when I sit down with my accumulated wealth I front of me, as I do occasionally, I get an eerie sense of calm.
I should also clarify my screen name, for I am not a rancher, it is more of an ideal that I strive to think and act on a higher level than I presently occupy.
Y2K- I stared planning about a year ago because I thought this was something that needed my attention and I believe the recent reports are indicating that it was a good move, but who knows? I have recently purchased an RV to live in, not just for Y2K, being in the aviation industry you sometimes get a chance to see the country- whether you wanted to or not. It is self-contained and can go a little while with out external services. If anybody's interested tl.com is a good place to look, it provided me with some good information. I have some food stored, prices at the market have made it easy enough for anyone to prepare.
One thing I would like to mention, I saw on CNN Headline news, they had a piece called the week in review. Part of that stated that the congressional committee said that Y2K would merely be a bump in the road, how they came to this conclusion I have no idea, it couldn't be further from the truth, but that may be why most people don't worry about it (Y2K). Sorry for being so long winded with so much unimportant information.
April gold seems to be at the breakout point that could bring it to 316 in the near term. At least that's my interpretation of the charts.
PS Stranger I use Prodigy here in Atlanta and it's worked out well for me.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 19:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3073)
Thanks for the well thought out cash posts, guys.
I need to take a longer moment to absorb all of the good info. I wanted to pause long enough to pass this along, since it is related to our Y2K discussions.
SEC Chairman Levitt was asked to rate America's corporate preparedness for Y2K on a scale of 1-10, with one being the best and ten being "head for the hills!" Levitt responded by picking one.

Can you say, "COMPLETE denial"? I knew that you could. I mean, C'mon! He could have been savvy enough to choose a three at least. Clearly, the battle plan is to discourage ANY element of individual preparation. In fact he went so far as to say so. As near as I can quote him, he said in regard to reports he's heard of people building supplies of food and water, "it could feed on itself and create a greater danger than the problem itself."

Wait a minute...WHAT problem? I thought he just said we were at a One rating? Something doesn't compute. Could it be the computers after 2000? But seriously, doesn't this start to reek of "Animal Farm"? Together with Peter's good historical account of large shopping bags being labeled "HOARDER".
What would they have had to say about this country's pioneers? Every bit of energy they had went toward accumulating supplies and food to ensure their survival through the next winter, drought, or whatever the hardship du jour was.

What is evil about taking control and responsibility for your own well being? They seem to prefer that we remain stupid and helplessly dependent upon the Govt for all that we have. This nation was argueably at its best in 1776 when it sat at the feet of the Wright Brothers' flight instructor. (isn't that right, Peter?) Well, I say the theory still holds today. A man is capable of identifying what is in his best interest, and our Constitution guarantees him the power to pursue it. Choosing to hold your monetary savings in gold is the first and simplest step in that right direction. (OverHerd, I like the way you think. Thanks for answering the roll call!) ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 20:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3074)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part II
My conclusion regarding cash for Y2K is to try not to need to buy anything. AEL really laid it out this morning on this. I think the only thing that most people cannot avoid having to buy is gasoline. Other than that, the composite knowledge circulating around these days should enable anyone to be fully supplied. A major portion of what most people spend money on, day to day, out of wallet, is things one doesn't have to have or do. Beyond that, the breakdown of bank or credit card companies is not going to prevent utilities, landlords, or mortgage holders from receiving checks. If they wish to demand cash, they will be deterred by the necessary armored car scenario. In addition, most receipt points aren't local these days. One idea is to pay out the first three months of one's mortgage in time to get a hard copy receipt. Besides the precaution of proof, it covers the possibility of a temporary income crash.

One thing I don't see mentioned is charge accounts. One might consider opening those with hardware stores and local lumber yards. Unlike the "Big Box" outfits, they have in-house accounts, and you don't have to be in business to have one.

Regarding the electronic transfer of funds, it could be disastrous to pay anything that way during Y2K. The payment could be debited to your account yet not be on record as having been received by the payee! I wouldn't pay anything that didn't result in a canceled check or a receipt in hand!! The "biggest lie" joke of next year will probably be, "The payment is in the e-mail." All sorts of people might try a financial version of, "The dog ate my homework."

It is a relief to see the stockpiling of cash being de-emphasized. One threat that I've been concerned with is that the criminal element will perceive anyone prepared for Y2K as holding large quantities of cash or coin. Even if you didn't have it, you might not be believed and could be in more danger than if you had it to hand over.

This brings up the subject of security. Many stories have been written by Robert Heinlein and others regarding post-apocalypse survival. The common theme is people forming up in groups and posting a sign saying, "Stop where you are and hail the house." The problem with hiding out in the middle of nowhere is that, if you can't be seen, neither can an attacker. When hurricanes have threatened eastern beach communities, people have held parties in the safer houses, moving to higher ground as the tide rose. (Now-a-days the government probably forcefully evacuates everyone. Can't you just envision being dragged out of your bolt-hole for your own protection from outlaw bands?). Anyhow, it would seem ideal for people to celebrate New Year's Eve grouped together in the best environment they can jointly come up with.

My feelings on gold for barter are that if things were so bad that you needed that function, it would be too dangerous to expose the fact that you had any. Remember, the vulnerability of hard asset money is what created banks in the first place. Gold, as an investment or storage of wealth, is another matter entirely. If I had any liquid equity, I would have every bit of it in bullion and coin, and I would safely store it. I'd rather have my gold temporarily out of reach in a safety deposit box, than permanently out of reach in the hands of a crook. I know there is private storage also, but is that truly safe in a collapse? Confiscation doesn't appear to me to be a threat, because there are too many people these days owning things. The officials wouldn't have enough tax-payers left to cover their salaries!
The big unknown is the amount of lost earnings that will be sustained by individuals and corporations due to down time. The means of production will remain intact, but the pivotal question is, who will own what when the dust settles?

The operative four letter word here is FEMA! Fiat action and regulation can and will be enacted to keep things running. In theory, if everyone had to produce and deliver now and get paid their free market exchange later; no one would starve or freeze. Not much fun, but it beats death and destruction. Opportunities for power play will be created by the interplay of debt, default, foreclosure and repossession. A lot will depend on how these affect the economic landscape.

On the personal level, the major item at risk is homes. Most are heavily mortgaged. The most depressing part in Nick Guardio's current newsletter is his statement that most home mortgages have a clause requiring payment-in-full on demand which takes affect if the appraisal value falls below the outstanding loan balance. The specter of banker-landlords receiving their tribute from a nation of tenants is truly gruesome. However the last time there was a great depression, a far smaller amount of the population were home owners. (I believe the current figure is 66%.) Just as Florida and one other state currently allow unlimited home equity to survive bankruptcy, it's not unthinkable that in a financial meltdown there might be a moratorium on principle residence mortgages. Which is the larger voting block � the home owners of the land or the stockholders of the lending institutions?

Tomorrow in part III, I'll try to conjure up a picture of the new economic world order.

Peter A.
ET
(03/07/1999; 20:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3075)
Aristotle

You wrote in part;

'What is evil about taking control and responsibility for your own well being? They seem to prefer that
we remain stupid and helplessly dependent upon the Govt for all that we have'.

This is the name of game, isn't it?

As you and others have noted, there is a tremendous disconnect between what we know the facts to be and what we are being told to do about it. I've suspected for the last couple of years that the last people that are going to tell you the truth about y2k will be the governments. They have absolutely nothing to gain and absolutely everything to lose. Farfel is correct in his assessment. The herd is turning. This is an exciting time to be alive.

ET
Ray Patten
(03/07/1999; 20:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3076)
Y2K updates:
Chevron Oil has admitted it won't fix all of its systems in time and that "Year 2000 business interruptions could prevent it from making and delivering refined products and producing oil and gas."

I have asked the company for a copy of their annual report so I can read all the details myself. The SEC is forcing all public companies to disclose to shareholders their Y2K preparedness.

Also, on the national news on Friday evening, it was reported that Coke-a-Cola plans on buying extra sugar toward the end of the year in case there are disruptions in world transportation next year.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 20:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3077)
Ray Patten
That is *pivotal* data about Chevron. One small piece of truth about Y2K, one giant step towards the rest of it.

The cat is out of the bag!!!
SteveH
(03/07/1999; 20:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3078)
Mike is going to have a tough contest to judge...
I am awed.


April gold moving up in overseas trading as we speak. Now $289.60, asking $289.80. $291 by morning anyone?

backlash
(03/07/1999; 21:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3079)
What to do AFTER
Just a little thing found while reading and keeping Y2K in the back of my mind and supplied for the amusement of all:

From Text:Money Daily No permission requested.

ARMAGEDDON! That seems to be cunsulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas's view of 2000. Challenger describes the next 100 years as "the new technology paralyzed millennium" (Y2K, of course) and takes a crack at predicting which occupations will be in heavy demand. Here are their picks (and the reason): Bartering Agents (shortage of cash), Private Security Officers (breakdown of local infrastructure, widespread panic), Survivalist Consultants (no food,no supplies, civil unrest), Y2K Realtors (a mass exodus from paralyzed cities will flood the countryside, and of course all the excapees will need relocation help), Y2K Therapists (people will need help coping with the "frustration and chaos" from the meltdown) and , last but not least, "Alternative Power Providers" (gotta cook the food that your Survivalist Consultant finds you.) Sorry, no advice about how to prepare for any of these lucrative careers.

Is/Was this a somewhat tongue-in-cheek joke? bl
backlash
(03/07/1999; 21:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3080)
Y2K Post Submission *****Mar.12 Silver - 5.10******
Ah-h-h-h-h - - The broth is thick and smooth, the meat content tender, and the spices just right. Gather round ye Knights of this table round for good helpings for all and to be shared with many. The table is set with a hardy, succulent Y2K stew steaming hot for those who wish to take their fill with a bit of knowledge. Please join with me.

Much has been shared at this table regarding Y2K, its implications, possibilities, and ramifications as applied to financial, economic, physical, and psychological consequences as the year 2000 approaches. Some of the prognostications see the event as being rather benign while others see catastrophe. As I approach a seventh decade of gaining knowledge, wisdom (hopefully), and experience on this planet, the conclusion I reach is this: Experience over time shows that the actuality of what occurs will be at neither extreme. Nick G. and Gary North serve well inasmuch as they are certainly waving the red flags and bringing much needed attention to the situation in a public way. However, that is just exactly what will keep things from being as bad as they would purport them to be.

Therefore, I am indeed making Y2K preparations. Not quite to the total extreme of moving to the hills and building a fortress, but definitely looking toward a possibility of a 'mini' cultural breakdown of our society as we know it. This mini breakdown would not be total anarchy, but rather a moderate level of marshal law imposition by the various levels of government in the US. This would likely apply to the bulk of the free nations of the world today. Specifically, Canada, most of Europe, Australia, England and a few others fall into this group. The rest of the countries are already, to one degree or another, in a state of marshal law, anarchy, or just pure chaos with no one in true control. I really don't know where Russia falls in the classification. In those cases, the Y2K problem will have little effect other than to disrupt aid (in its many forms) from the 'free' countries.

The more 'free' the country, the greater the possibility for social breakdown. Why? Because those are precisely the people are accustomed to having virtually unlimited freedoms and have not had to pay a price (in their memory span) to have an 'ownership' of those freedoms. This is where the panic will appear (if it does). Again, why? Many reasons. A foremost is that those who had to sacrifice much through world wars, depressions, famines and the like no longer are among us or are no longer the ones leading those who follow. Therefore, those who 'know' are no longer at the helm.

My preparations for Y2K began long before computers were even being used for much of anything. (Not that I realized it at the time.) Boy Scouting taught many useful skills that I now find very few know. First Aid, swimming, how to find North (day or night), fishing, hiking, plants (edible & poisonous), and so many more skills as well as discipline, morality, and service to their fellow man were cornerstones learned in Scouting. Also my father taught me to hunt. Yes, this includes using and understanding a firearm. But more importantly, he taught me the importance of compassion in the process of acquiring food in this manner. I don't sport hunt, I eat what I harvest in the field. Yes I know exactly what it feels like to take the life of an animal. It is not something everyone is able to do, but neither is it as barbaric as some would lead us to believe. Unless you are a vegetarian, you are eating food that someone had to kill. (Think about it).

Back to the subject: The second level of preparations for Y2K again were well before anyone had the foggiest notion of Y2K. In high school, I learned several trade skills that will serve me well after the Y2K shakeout occurs. Several other skills have been added over the years to the point that I have a unique bag of abilities to draw from. I can weld, do electrical wiring, install plumbing, pour and finish concrete, repair and/or rebuild vehicles (cars & pickups), and do virtually every odd job needed around the house. Oh yes, and cook well enough to survive.

The above Y2K preparations are absolutely impossible to achieve between now and the time they will potentially be needed. So, may I suggest before starting to stock up on money or gold:

Step #1. FIND SOMEONE(S) who have these skills/abilities and become close friends (not the artificial type of friend) if possible. Time is short and unfortunately it takes time to make this kind of friend if you are not already well down the road. As an alternative, gather a group of current friends and parcel out skills to be learned according to their abilities. START NOW!

Step #2. Lay back a reasonable supply of medicines, food, and a WAY TO PURIFY WATER! Storage of some water is a great idea, but if this thing stretches out very long, it will not be enough. Water may be available that is of unknown quality. You have it, but can't use it. Toilet paper and paper towels you really can get by without. Does anyone remember the days of cloth diapers that one washed and reused? Wash cloths and towels will get you through if you remember to stock up some soap, too.

Step #3. Durable, warm clothes is next on the list. This includes footwear and outerwear. Go to any outdoors type store like REI and you can find what you need. In lieu of access to such a store, get hiking boots/shoes, warm loose coats that can be layered with sweaters, and quality work type clothes.

Step #4. If power is a major concern, buy a generator. P.S. they are going fast and have waiting lists. If you don't have the money, pool together with others with the same concern and get at least a 5KW unit. Smaller ones are about useless.

Step #5. Alternate heat source for those in cold climates. This one can be a problem because too many people will misuse or misapply their 'alternate heat source' and wind up killing more people in fires than any other event short of war. In this area, please be very careful and know exactly how to use the device.


Now it is time to start looking at the money or gold or whatever else floats your boat.

Step #6. Put aside, in the local currency, three months worth of smaller denomination bills for use to buy essentials you don't have. Forget about the mortgage, car payment, and charge card bills when figuring out how much you need. Nobody is going to come get them for quite a while if this scenario occurs. I can't see hoarding more than six months worth at a maximum. If this thing is still going at that time the currency most likely will be useless anyway.

Step #7. Now you have the bare necessities covered. If you have any money left (and many will not) buy gold coins. They are of known content and most people can figure out what their approximate value is in their particular situation at that time.


This has now covered what 90% of the people can actually do and accomplish. The rest are those who have wealth (however nominal) that they can stash away. Call Mike and he can best help you from this point forward.


Other posts have so eloquently gone into the details of almost all of the the steps above and usually well beyond. The steps herein really are for the lurkers that don't have a clue where to start and other starters on the Y2K preparations. And particularly for those with limited financial capabilities. Each step, of course, has much more within it. Please refer to other posts.

Hopefully everyone has noticed that nothing has been mentioned about horrible word, GUNS! However, it should now be mentioned to complete the stew. Sadly it is the slightly bitter herb that adds a bit of a tang to the dish. If you do not own a gun and do not feel comfortable with one, DON'T GET ONE! For those who want one, get training from a certified trainer before purchasing anything. IMHO there is not much worse than someone that has a firearm and is scared of it or doesn't know how to use it properly. Want a gun? Then learn about it and respect it. Go to Step #1 and apply it here if there are any doubts in your mind.

Thank you fellow Knights of the Table Round for you indulgence. This long piece was something that has long been on my mind that I felt needed to be shared. If some part of it is of value, use it wisely and discard the rest. Time has been kind to me and it is now close to the time of passing the shield, helmet, armor, and sword to those younger Knights.

Best Wishes, bl
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 21:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3081)
*****$4.75***** Price of Silverrrrrrrrr!
I base my price on happenings this past week regarding the NEW stock market high, the announcement by Coke that they are stockpiling, the banana war with Europe and the new import tax threatened by the US. (I didn't catch the whole story on this banana/tax deal but it sounded as though Europe might get the short end of the stick.) All positives for the market and negatives for the heavy metals. But, who knows!!

Then. . . . My biggest surprise in economics and finance. . . . .
The lack luster performance of the Euro since day one. Europe seems to have rolled over, for the time being, when I thought they come out of the gate with a bang. Their competitor (US) has a tough act to follow and they've got their work cut out for the next several years.
The Stranger
(03/07/1999; 21:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3082)
OverHerd and eulu
I loved both of your posts. What a breath of fresh air. I hope to hear a lot more of your thinking.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 21:51:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3083)
Just out
http://nt.excite.com/news/u/990307/13/tech-science-y2k

Read this item!!
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 21:51:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3084)
Y2K Preparation -- Global Perspective

The failing infrastructure and institutions of the United States,and the lack of adequate spending and planning to correct the existing deficiencies has led me over the past several years to adopt a simpler lifestyle and to prepare to live a self-sufficient existence in a rural environment for an extended time, should general social conditions warrant.

Among the factors that cold lead to social breakdown are the
vulnerability of modern agriculture to long-term crop failure due to overuse of chemicals, depleting the soil's capacity to produce or survive and recover from severe weather conditions ; and overspecialization in a few seed types, highly at risk of being wiped out by disease. Another factor: There is the possibility of greatly increased and widespread incidence of infectious diseases
which antibiotics will not be able to control, in the United
States as well as poorer countries.

Whatever the effects of Y2K turn out to be, they should be
considered in the context of the existing trends described. Some specific preparations seem to be called for that would provide short-term self-sufficiency. Prudent preparations vary greatly according to community, climate, location, utility companies and so on. I will not detail my personal preparations here, as space is limited: I prefer to use it to express my concerns as to the overall effect Y2K may have on us all and which may prove to be quite profound. Before turning to that, I will add that among my personal preparations I have included some gold, silver and
silver coins, and several currencies (some in cash).

Will the cumulative effect of many isolated computer-related
failures throughout the world over the course of the year 2000 bring about a global recession? I have collected a few comments from others relating to this question:


"I've got my finger on the trigger. If I don't see any specifics ( on fixing the Y2K bug ) from the G8 by the middle of June, I'll sadly be raising the odds of a severe global recession from 60 percent to 100 percent."

Dr. Ed Yardeni, Chief Economist, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.

"This could have a huge impact on international trade, foreign investment, the global economy and even
national security�these countries are only now becoming aware of the Year 2000 problems and they lack the resources to fully address it."

William E. Kennard , Federal Communications Commission Chairman

"It always amazes me how the experts who talk on Y2k are always forwarding their perspective from their own countries standpoint... 99% of these experts are from the US, Canada,UK, Australia. All the countries who are at the top of the remediation list. Their perspectives
seem to be very narrow ...in this day and age where we have a global information highway I forsee many breakdowns. Not because of failures within these remediated countries, but from the domino effect of cascading failures in 70+% of the rest of the world. "

(Source Unknown)

I read that 54% of the world's natural gas is supplied from one plant in Russia. I haven't verified it. The question of the cumulative effect of isolated failures on a global world now dependent on technology will be answered over the course of next year. In the process, there may be much volatility in currencies, in the markets. It seems prudent to have some assets in gold.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 21:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3085)
Aristotle, 03/07 #3051
You said: "The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before." I think this may be an understatement, at best. Think about this, from now to the end on the year many people and companies (Coke I heard on Friday) will be 'stockpiling'. The demand on goods will be like never before. Demands on many manufacturing areas will be huge. Then, sometime after the first of the year, most everyone who stockpiled will be using their unused goods. Demands will crash and the economy will turn down until demand is re-established ('rebound').

This of course assumes Y2K had little or no effect and if it DID have a dramatic effect, manufacturing will still have problems. Either way, the very act of 'stockpiling' WILL create new challenges.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 22:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3086)
Y2K
Preparing for Y2K problems and why, how, gold?,

Y2K preparations ARE necessary for prudent people. It's no different than preparing for a winter storm and protecting what wealth you have. Common sense. What and how much you stockpile depends on your needs and circumstances and, to a greater degree, YOUR beliefs! Any preparedness is "getting back to basics" which is also what the realization of gold ownership is anyhow. A natural for most everyone here at the round table.

Threats to goods and services are recognizable to most. Believing this, we've chosen to build on what we already have from a deliberate attempt years ago to be 'out of the city' and afford ourselves with some level of independence.

Basic immediate needs are food, water, shelter, warmth, and clothing . . . . .
We'll have a calf in the pasture and maybe a hog for the summer. We'll confirm our inventory of wheat for the mill and stock-up on basic dry goods. Water supply could be interrupted, so we'll set aside some store bought stuff, just in case. (We have a distiller, so we could recycle what nature already provides to this beautiful land.) The roof doesn't leak so we're ok there. Heating with wood, 22 years, continues to endow us with the 'warmth and comfort' only six to eight cords and a stove can afford. The inventory will be set this summer! Clothing supplies will be audited also. Icing on the cake will be a couple of extra cans of gasoline for the generator. This would provide an extra level of comfort, should our power guys black us out for a period of time. (Power for the freezer or radio/tv has not been decided and may prove to be a no-brain-er at the time.) A special thought when determining what to stock will be "Would we use this anyhow?'. If no is the answer, we won't buy it. Be prepared! Must not forget our critters. Medical needs should be addressed along with our elderly mother.

And since we know better . . . . .
A stash of fiat may prove worthy, but just in case, tenths and quarters will do the trick. Pre-64 silvers could be worth their weight in gold to local merchants, since most don't know one end of an eagle from the other. We own gold! We practice 'safe wealth', no unprotected wealth for us.

Potential importance . . . . .
Pre-1933 $20 gold pieces will prove invaluable when/if our method of swapping dollars for goods and services collapses. Our world is highly dependant on paper as well as electronic money. Y2K promises to touch one or both. A run on paper seems inevitable even if Y2K doesn't touch the banks. With paper short AND digital dollars inoperable, gold, and only gold, will be king. What's your bet nothing happens? If your reasoning is like ours, you're ready for the next winter storm and you've protected what you've slaved to save.

Got Safe Wealth!
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 22:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3087)
Richard...demand for goods
I'm glad to hear you describe my warning as an understatement. I do not want to be type-cast as a doom-and-gloomer, and certainly don't feel that I'm anywhere close. I am far too calm for all that. I do feel the pinch of knowing that I cannot row this boat alone, however, and would be heartened to see a great many others make a move toward social independence. It is with THESE people wherein our hope for a bright future lies. When the going gets tough, it is such people that become leaders of men...leading by example, not by dominion.

Food for thought on this topic you've agreed with. The highly revered Michael Dell of Dell Computers said in regard to Y2K (paraphrased) "If you want a computer, you had better get one now, because there are no guarantees that we'll be able to produce them next year." Wow! That is a wake-up call to all the would-be internet-stock millionaires. ---Aristotle
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3088)
1999 Economic Surprises *******5.37******
The continuing expansion of the United States' economy, enhanced by consumer spending, has surprised many, prompting a concern over inflation and a rise in 30 Year Treasuries. I suggest this expansion, which has supported the dollar, is the most surprising economic news so far in 1999.

Nevertheless,we should keep in mind that earnings for the majority of companies have been declining for about a year. Long-term rates had begin to rise last August. Subsequent successive rate cuts by the Fed seem to have extended what might be called a "virtual" or bubble expansion, which seems to be creating more supply than is warranted.

Looking ahead, a rapid decline in the stock indices may prove surprising to a large number of stockholders, even though most stocks have not been increasing in value for quite some time.

Finally, a rise in the price of gold, oil and commodities over the course of 1999 also is not expected by most. However, a shift of investment to such real assets seems likely.
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3089)
1999 Economic Surprises *******5.33******
The continuing expansion of the United States' economy, enhanced by consumer spending, has surprised many, prompting a concern over inflation and a rise in 30 Year Treasuries. I suggest this expansion, which has supported the dollar, is the most surprising economic news so far in 1999.

Nevertheless,we should keep in mind that earnings for the majority of companies have been declining for about a year. Long-term rates had begin to rise last August. Subsequent successive rate cuts by the Fed seem to have extended what might be called a "virtual" or bubble expansion, which seems to be creating more supply than is warranted.

Looking ahead, a rapid decline in the stock indices may prove surprising to a large number of stockholders, even though most stocks have not been increasing in value for quite some time.

Finally, a rise in the price of gold, oil and commodities over the course of 1999 also is not expected by most. However, a shift of investment to such real assets seems likely.
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3090)
Apology- unintended double post (First: ***5.37***OK)
Waited and 'thought post not taken.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 23:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3091)
The Fed's proposed banking rules for Know Your Customer
The Senate killed it on Friday by an 88-0 vote. Hadn't seen anyone mention this, but I know it was on the minds of many.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 23:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3092)
Huh? Gold is rising on the Austalian/Hong Kong shift??
The last time I noticed such a freak occurrance, gold moved up over $10 in just a couple of days. Will history repeat?
Gandalf the White
(03/07/1999; 23:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3093)
IS this the spark that Au needs ?
A bearish key reversal on the NIKKEI index today in Japan.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 00:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3094)
Senate Hears Glum World Y2K Forecast
Washington-March 5-FWN
In one recent study of 72 nations, only five reported year 2000 upgrades of their electrical systems, six have completed work on their banking systems, eight have upgraded their telecommunications nets and four report air travel system upgrades. It is difficult to gauge the actual extent of year 2000 readiness, since many countries consider it a national security issue and refuse to share full information with the United States.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that there will be Y2K-related failures in every corner of the globe, some of which could prove harmful to U.S. interests," State Department Inspector-General Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers said today.

"It's almost like pulling on a ball of yarn," said James Woodward, whose company, Cap Gemini, handles year 2000 upgrades. "Companies start out thinking it's a simple technological problem, but the more they learn, the more alarmed they get."

As they attempt to increase public awareness of year 2000 risks, government officials must walk a fine line-- informing without alarming. A recent study found that businesses that sell bulk food, guns and emergency supplies like power generators have seen sharp increases in sales as the millennium approaches.

On the other side of the spectrum are countries that do not seem to be taking the problem seriously enough.
The State Department found countries from Europe to Africa to the Middle East that have not begun any major year 2000 upgrades. One European country, for example, established a year 2000 task force that did not hold its first meeting until this January. Many Arab-world countries believe they are not at risk because their computers follow the Muslim calendar, but the State Department reported that contact with Western-calendar computers could affect everything from oil exports to critical water desalination problems.

The State Department is advising citizens not to stockpile food or make a run on the banks for extra cash before the New Year. But it has issued an advisory for U.S. travelers in countries that may experience more severe Y2K problems.
Among other things, it warns that basic systems like utilities, transportation and health care may not be available and advises travelers to "consult with their insurance companies to ascertain that policies cover Y2K- related problems."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 02:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3095)
Round Table Roll Call
It occurred to me that some of our knights might only have posting access on a Monday-Friday basis, so in an effort to include them in the welcome to step forward and be recognized (a simple 'Hello' will suffice for this purpose, but if they get carried away, all the better!) I'd like to extend my previous invitation to include Monday also (or whatever day they happen to see the Call for Roll. ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 05:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3096)
April gold now...
$290!
USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 08:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3097)
Today's Gold Market Report....Challenging the top of range
MARKET UPDATE (3/8/99): Gold began the week on a strong note this morning
breaking out of its recent range in Europe. Reuters reports that "buying on the part of one
U.S. bank boosted prices. One trader was quoted as saying that "one of the American
houses has been buying in substantial amounts. It looks to me like a mine buyback." All
eyes will be on the $292 figure as that has acted as a ceiling in the gold market. The dollar
was also down in early trading contributing to the positive psychology for gold.

There wasn't much in the way of news this morning so it will be short report today. Short
covering has become an important aspect of this gold market and we will be watching for
mining companies, hedge funds, et al to cover more short positions as the strong worldwide
physical demand to hedge Y2K and potential dollar problems weighs heavily on investor
psychology. That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting develops. Have a
good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.

TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 08:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3098)
A wealth of insight into oil
"WHAT is the point of producing more oil and selling it for an unguaranteed
paper currency?" Abdurrahman Salim Atiqi, Kuwait's one-time oil minister--1973

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_ld5338.html
http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_sf1235.html
AEL
(03/08/1999; 09:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3099)
The State of the Herd

.... is surprisingly advanced:

March 3, 1999

Public Opinion on the Y2K Problem

By Frank Newport

Although a special report issued today by a Senate subcommittee on the Year
2000 Technology Problem suggested that the U.S. is not going to face
catastrophic problems at the end of the year, Gallup polling indicates that
many Americans are personally concerned and plan on taking specific actions
to protect themselves against the impact of possible Y2K issues. . . .

The American public, when asked about its confidence that a number of
different governments will have the problem fixed by the end of the century,
has most confidence in their state government. Seventy three percent of those
polled in a special USA Today/National Science Foundation poll conducted in
December said that their state government will have their systems fixed by
the year 2000. A slightly lower number, 68%, have confidence that their local
government and the U.S. government will have their systems fixed. Americans
have much lower confidence that governments outside of the U.S. will have the
problem fixed. Only 48% say they are confident that the industrialized
countries around the world will not be plagued by Y2K problems, and a very
low 18% say as much for the less developed countries. These perceptions are
significant, as some observers have pointed out the potential dangers if
countries with nuclear power plants or nuclear weapons lose control of them
due to Y2K issues.

The Senate report also highlighted the potential problems associated with
various industry segments across the country. The report highlighted the
health care industry as one with a particularly high potential for
significant problems, but only a relatively small number of Americans �33%-
say that they think it likely that hospital equipment and services will fail,
putting patients at risk.

Concern with banks is much higher, with 63% of Americans saying they think it
likely that banking and accounting systems will fail. After banks, Americans
are most concerned about air traffic controls systems (46% say they think it
is likely that these will fail, putting air traffic in jeopardy), food and
retail distribution systems (37% think these will fail), and "911" systems
(36% say these won't work).

Will Americans themselves be taking special precautions on or about January
1, 2000? Many will. When asked in the December poll about a series of
possible precautions they could be taking, 65% of Americans said they would
be obtaining special confirmation or documentation of bank accounts and other
financial records before the end of the year. Forty-seven percent said they
would avoid traveling on airplanes on or around January 1, and 31% said they
intended to withdraw and set aside a large amount of cash. Smaller numbers
said they would stockpile food and water, buy a generator or wood stove, or
withdraw all of their money from the bank.

If problems do occur, Americans feel that they are likely to last weeks if
not months, rather than days. Sixty eight percent said that such problems
would be likely to last for several weeks to a year, while only 15% said they
would last only a few days. Only 11% said, on the other hand, that they would
last for more than a year.

USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 09:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3100)
To All Goldmesters and Contestants from Far and Wide....
We enter the last day of the contest and "Oh what a contest it's been!" How am I supposed to pick a winner? A near impossible task.

The contest will be complete by the stroke of midnight tonight, so let's make this the final call to contest.

I would to like to remind all posters that on the silver price prediction, it must appear in the subject box surrounded by stars********. I wouldn't want somebody to get the right price and then have their prediction scrapped due to a rules formality. "T. Remittal" is one that needs to repost with his silver price in the subject box. If you got the right price and it wasn't in the subject box then a competitor could rightly say the rules were broken and it should be disqualified.

Those who do not know the subject matter and the rules for the contest can re-read USAGOLD message number 3017 for March 6, 1999.

Good luck, and may the best post win.
turbohawg
(03/08/1999; 09:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3101)
The nomad approach
It appears from reading through other's preparations that most or all are working Y2K plans into the life they already have rather than making major changes. That seems rational and in that regard my plans are no different. In fact, my plans are not Y2K specific but geared to dealing with the economic uncertainty on the horizon, and they should have me as prepared as possible if Y2K turns out to be more than I expect.

From what I gather, I'm probably the youngster of this group (33) so it stands to reason that some of my preps would be different because I'm at a different stage of life. My priority is to keep it simple. Hence, my objectives can be summed up in 2 words: mobility and liquidity.

Mobility: Economic strife may require moving to find opportunity. Therefore, I want to be in a position to pick up and go if I want to, meaning no anchors such as a house and mortgage, immediate family, or debt. No big deal ... my life is already centered around the freedom to pursue my passions.

Another aspect to consider is the prospect of domestic violence or a foreign adversary or terrorist group taking advantage of trouble in this country to launch some kind of attack that might make certain areas unliveable. I don't want to be bunkered down.

Given that my job has had me travelling a lot over the last several years, I know the country well and have friends, contacts, and potential contacts in many areas. Learning another language is something I'm trying to motivate myself to do as well (with limited success so far).

Liquidity: With the banking system at risk due to the financial bubble that already exists, I hope to be independent from it regardless of any Y2K problems that might crop it. I've already been converting from one broad category of assets to another. I'll not go into detail but everyone here probably understands. That means more than just having confidence that I can hold what I have in my hand tomorrow but also that I have the ability to move it somewhere else if necessary. I don't want to go too fast with this conversion, however, because betting on the market volatility is just too much fun.

Boning up on self protection measures fits into the picture too.

This approach has its drawbacks. If the worst happens and food becomes really expensive, I'm going to have no stockpile to lean on. Those of you who do will not only have something to eat but a form of currency. I'm considering a small investment in an isolated area near family where I could raise a little food but will wait to see what happens first.

On the flip side of all this, if Y2K comes and power goes down and people are out in the streets, firing up the grills and tapping the kegs, it could turn into one hell of a party !!!

T. Remital
(03/08/1999; 09:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3102)
******march silver 5.025*****
Sorry mike.I was shoveling snow instead of reading rules.
backlash
(03/08/1999; 11:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3103)
Party Time

Turbohawg -

Great idea! Leave it to the younger generation to see the bright side of things. You have made me re-evaluate the storeroom. A keg or two and a bottle or so would make fine provisions. Mind if I join the party?

bl
beesting
(03/08/1999; 11:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3104)
T.Remital #3065 Peter Asher#3060
Mr.T if I may call you that,the very same subject was discussed(was there any Gold at Fort Knox)here about 4 months ago.Findings seemed inconclusive!However since that time I did find out what government agency takes responsibility for the safe guarding of Gold at Ft.Knox**The U.S.Mint**check it out:
http://www.usmint.gov/facts/facts.cfm
Scroll down to mission and be as surprised as I was.

Peter'since you shared the horror of a war starting,I thought I'd share this. When I was 6 I got special permission to go to my friend Harry's house after school.Harry and I just started to play 1on 1 softball when his mother came running out of the house tears streaming down her cheeks.Harry THE WAR'S OVER(WW2)!Harry's mom grabbed harry in a bear hug and they went in the house,they forgot I was even there.You see Harry's dad was in the army somewhere overseas. As I walked home not really understanding what was going on,it seemed every car in town parked or running had the car horn stuck on full blast...seems like such a short time ago...........beesting
JA
(03/08/1999; 11:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3105)
Banks and Cash Reserves
In light of the discussion pertaining to cash and Y2k I thought the following to interesting.

http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990308.htm
Alchemist
(03/08/1999; 11:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3106)
********* Ag price 5.30**********
What to say? That is the question. First, thank you all for all the insite gained during the past year. I try to read on a daily basis so as not to miss anything. As mentioned by most others the depth of understanding by the members is exceptional and well explained to the general reader. Thanks
My sense on Y2K is that there will be many general interruptions but most on a fairly short term basis. Certain items will be scarse or non existent but will not halt the wheels of commerce. Prices will rise considerably, as I think this event will be the one to start the $'s decline as well as the markets. It is at this time that the euro will start to come more into the role as alternative global reserve currency.
I feel that we need to much more collectively,work toward sustainable economies, where local areas are much less influenced by happenings in other areas of the world. The globalization that we are currently experiencing has very much disrupted the local sustainable economies of the past. I think that beyond a certain point, quality of life starts to be reduced. The concept of sustainablity, although advocated by the UN, is contrary to what we are now experiencing, with the continued corporate concentration around the world. If we were truly sustainable I don't believe that there would need to be as much concern over Y2K. Sustainability does not mean isolation from world, only more control over items necessary to basic life, s.a food shelter, and love
Our family will prepare by probably a months supply of bulk grains, rice, beans etc. as well as canned fish and other protein sources. We are very close to a clean fresh water source so do not need to be concerned about that. We will have five gallons or so of kerosene for kerosene lamps, and a good supply of candles. We live in a farm community so should be able to continue to get dairy, fresh veggies eggs
I am slowly accumulating Maple leafs and have had junk silver coins from the days they were in circulation. I will have some small denomination bills, but not till Sept or Oct. Most of my banking is done through the local credit union, where I am well known by the manager. I believe that trying to keep money within the community, is again very healthy for the community and for its sustainability. I believe that there will be a slow deteoriation of the large urban areas, with more independent sustainable villages or small towns. With the advent of the internet, there will be less and less need to live in big cities, and more choice in rural living. One will not need to be cut off from the world or from those sharing ones world view. I think that Y2K will make more people think of alternatives. I think lots but don't get too much chance to express. Sorry if it seems rambly



TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 13:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3107)
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold rallies on short-covering
By Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--Mar 8--COMEX Apr gold futures ended up $3.2 at $292.7 after
hitting an 8-week high of $293.0 on short-covering. Dealers described today's
activity as mostly technically-motivated, with stops triggered at $291.5 and
$292.0 propelling gains until a second round of buy stops near $292.5 were hit
near the close.
More to follow...

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 13:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3108)
More Bridge News
Johannesburg--Mar 8--The South African Reserve Bank's holdings of gold
and foreign assets totalled 32.745 billion rand in February compared with
32.557 billion rand in January, the Bank said today. By I-Net Bridge, Story
.795

Taipei--Mar 8--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 4.564 tonnes in February,
compared with 5.821 tonnes a year earlier, the Finance Ministry announced
today. By Stephen Burstein, Bridge News, Story .6016

Sydney--Mar 8--Papua New Guinea is continuing negotiations with the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank on a financing package expected
to be in excess of the US $80-90 million discussed in 1997, Deputy Prime
Minister and Treasurer Iairo Lasaro told Bridge News. No final decision has
been reached on whether to push ahead with a proposed US dollar eurobond,
he said, expressing concern about both the cost and the impact it could
have on the country's financial system. By Sophie Hares, Bridge News, Story
.13808

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 14:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3109)
Ha ha ha...good double entendre, Town Crier..."More to follow!"
In your news, "...[gold] hitting an 8-week high of $293.0 on short-covering. Dealers described today's
activity as mostly technically-motivated, with stops triggered...propelling gains until a second round of buy stops near $292.5 were hit near the close.
More to follow..."

You've accidentally hit the nail on the head. This market is SOOOooooo short, that once the move is clear for all to see, not only today's activity (as reported) but ALL future activity will be "mostly technically-motivated, with [buy] stops triggered" by the shorts unwinding their positions. Will any be foolish enough to attempt to add to their short postion? "There are two types of shorts in this world, my friend; the quick, and the dead." See you at the funeral. ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 14:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3110)
Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Hits 2-month High on Fund Covering
New York-March 8-FWN--Gold futures settled sharply
higher here on a day when technical considerations
triggered some fund short covering, sources said. However,
contacts pointed out, the funds likely are still heavily
short, meaning more covering is possible if the market can
get through the next resistance level.
Silver futures also moved higher as some of the recent
long liquidation seems to have run its course, at a time
when lease rates still point to a generally favorable
fundamental outlook, sources said.
Platinum and palladium were described as trading within
thin ranges, perhaps getting some help from gold and
silver.
April gold closed with a gain of $3.20 to $292.70 and
traded as high as $293, its strongest level since $296.20
back on Jan. 12.
Gold managed to hold its own over the last few weeks
despite a sell off in May silver from a high of $5.81 on
Feb. 4 to a low of $5.13 on Friday.
Then today, some fund short covering entered the
market, apparently induced by technical considerations since
there did not appear to be any fresh fundamental news,
reported George Kleinman, president with Commodity Resource
Corp.
"There was some fund short covering and we went up to
the next resistance level, which is $293," he said.
"The big shorts have been the funds, and they're
still major shorts...We'd expect there to be more if we
have a sustained move above $293," he said.
The next target would be the January high of $296.50,
then around $302 to $303, he said. Support is anticipated at
previously failed resistance of $290.50, then $286.50.
Kleinman did note that volume appeared light today.
While there was not any breaking news today, Kleinman
noted that recently news reports indicated that Belgium's
central bank gold holdings had fallen from around 1,300 tons
a decade ago to around 300 now, but that no further sales
are planned. Kleinman offered the view that an end to the
selling may also be the case for other central banks tied in
with Europe's new single currency, the euro.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 15:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3111)
As promised, continuation of Bridge Gold Report
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold rallies on short-covering

"The gold market really had a taste for stops this morning, and later in the
day it was feeling around for some more," said one dealer. "The problem is
there's a few big dealers that might be waiting to sell any real volume that
comes in."
One large US trade house was said to be selling into the rally this morning,
but a burst of renewed buying late in the session brought Apr to the 8-week high
late in the session.
Dealers said gold also found support from today's higher CRB index and the
rally in crude prices, with a fairly steady performance in the US dollar against
the Japanese yen giving the market little reason to sell the precious metal.
Bill O'Neill, director of futures research for Merrill Lynch, said there's
more potential for short-covering in coming sessions.
"Gold has a big speculative short position, so long-term fundamentals aside,
I think there's potential to see the market spike up because we're getting into
levels where
these shorts are going to be uncomfortable," O'Neill said. "A lot of these
positions are on at levels not really too profitable at this point."
O'Neill, who recently changed his outlook on gold to neutral from bearish,
said Apr gold keeps stalling at resistance at $293-294, but the longer the
market keeps testing those levels, the greater the likelihood of a breakout.
"I would watch $293-294, because the more you get into that area, the more
you're going to start to get the very substantial spec shorts in trouble," said
O'Neill.
He added that fundamentally gold is showing some promise, as there are
perceptions that central bank sales will be less of an issue this year.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 15:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3112)
Ecuador ***NEWS FLASH*** Bank runs cause Bank Holiday
HEADLINE: Ecuador announces surprise holiday after bank panic--March 8 (Reuters)

We reported this drastic devaluation of 27% on Thursday. BANK RUNS FOLLOWED.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/56.html

HEADLINE: Ecuador bonds down as officials call bank holiday--March 8 (Reuters)

Related story.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/34.html

HEADLINE: Goldman builds up public relations area before IPO

Exiting at the top...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/bby.html
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 16:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3113)
A *must read* for a good wrap on Y2K weekend at the Round Table
I say again, a must read:

http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990308.htm

(Pssssssst...must read)
nugget101
(03/08/1999; 16:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3114)
********* Silver 5.265 **********
Good luck everybody.
THX-1138
(03/08/1999; 17:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3115)
Y2k
Hi.
Been lurking on this site for about a year. Wondered if I could get in on this silver thing. ****Silver $6.10****
Ok, thats out of the way.

I have noticed that some people have been saying that the first hint of Y2K will be in September. That is wrong. I work for the Government and have recently been told to build a contingency plan for Y2K assuming there is a threat of War on Jan 1, 2000. I attended the Y2K meeting to discuss this stuff last Friday. Here are the dates that the Government considers to be important.

1) 9 April 1999 (99th day of year...i.e. 9999 means end of file error on old computer programs)

2) 9 September 1999 (9/9/99...i.e. 9999 means end of file error on old computer programs)

3) 1 October 1999 (Start of Fiscal year 2000)

4) 1 January 2000 (Obvious Reasons)

5) 29 February 2000 (First leap day of the millenium, and could effect computers using Julian Dates)

6) 1 March 2000 (Day after the first leap day)

7) Every day after if computers uses Julian Dates.

Just thought I would let every one know.
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 17:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3116)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part 3
Part 1 is #3039--3/6, part 2, #3074--3/7, and #3039 earlier that day would actually fit in sequence
between them.

I hold that the primary stable datum of the Y2K aftermath will be that most things will still be in place, albeit not necessarily in the place we wished. Hopefully most things will have remained under the same ownership, despite the universal enthrallment with fiat money. It is probably a given that there will be less affluence for a while, a definite drop in "conspicuous consumption." This general alteration and displacement in the economic scene, however, will serve to enhance the growth potential of www commerce. Ongoing trends, such as direct sales and the ruralization of business, will be the way of things more than ever,. The small low-overhead business person with intelligence and ambition as major assets, will thrive in the new environment.

On the personal level we are preparing for change. I expect our current work of designing and building one-of-a-kind cedar-and-glass oceanfront homes will be quiet for awhile. While our technical capabilities can be applied to any kind of construction, I wouldn't try to predict anything in this field of commerce until we're out the other side of the millennium tunnel. For more reasons than just Y2K, Robin and daughter Lisa have been building a multi-facility dot- com business. Robin is a month or two out from launching a magazine/directory that will be well positioned for post-Y2K, and Lisa is already servicing several clients as a website designer. Once I know what the needs and wants of the new age residences are, I may put together a plan collection targeted for the brave new world, like "The Year 2000 Bolt-Hole Plan Book".

The time and form of the reestablished electronic infrastructure will depend on how the people of the nation and of the world rally to the cause. Posts on this Forum and other sites have visions that run the gamut from a decadent, lawless society waiting for an excuse to rape, pillage and burn, to a patriotic, all-for-one and one-for-all group of rugged individualists, who come together in times of crisis.

beestings response this morning(#3104 ) reminds me of the way society was in those World War II years. Almost everyone had a friend, lover, husband or father overseas and in harm's way. On what we called the "homefront," everyone had a part. As kids, we sold defense stamps in increments of 10 &25 cents to be glued into books to become $18.75 bonds ($25.00 @ 10 year maturity). In grade school, we gave a performance for the grownups with lyrics such as
"Get on, get on, get on the road to victory.
Get off, get off, get off the rusty dusty.
And get on, get on, get on the road to victory,
And buy another bond today."
(Maybe A.G. will bring it back with a rewrite.)
At the end of the show, a friend of mine came down the aisle in a hideous monster costume. He was the "Squander Bug," who wasted precious resources by buying unneeded things. The audience all booed and hissed.
In 4th grade, each kid learned how to knit. We made squares which were then stitched into afghans, blankets for soldiers in wheelchairs .

Gasoline rationing was, as I recall, the most restricting aspect of home life. Every car had an "A" sticker on the windshield. Business people who had to make sales calls also got a "B." And if you were totally on the road for work you got a "C." The slogan was, "Is this trip necessary?'

One other economic event I remember was during the first summer of the war. At a carnival at camp, we threw baseballs at pictures of that year's four villains � Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, and...John L. Lewis, head of the United Mine Workers! He had called a strike and was seen by everyone as a saboteur for crippling the "war effort."

So, how will the world of the new millennium respond to a similar situation, being deprived of the normal plentitude of life by a common enemy? Last night's news item about Chevron Oil, I believe, was the wake up call that has been needed for the complacent-heads to get out of their apathy beds and go to work. As more and more picture frames of the Millennium movie come into view (yesterday's data on True Value and Ace Hardware going into the Y2K business, for instance), the parallels to WWII are a bit uncanny.

There are also differences. Today's FEMA is not of the same government as the various agencies of the '40s and all the "Dollar-a-Year" business leaders who volunteered their working lives for the country. Today's populace is not the same close-knit patriotic America of that time. The term "Gung Ho" is Chinese for "pull together." Interesting how it has evolved into an expression of derision!

There is also from China, in the "I-Ching," an ideogram depicting the co-existence of crisis and opportunity. Such will be this new time.

backlash
(03/08/1999; 18:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3117)
***** 5.10 ***** Mar.12 Silver

Ah yes, another poster that read not the rules well! So this repost with the 'guesstimate' for the COMEX close.

The greatest surprise (? where is spell ck when I need it?) this year ('99) it appears to me is the DJIA. It was bad before, but this is worse.

There is absolutely no basis that I can find to justify this latest runup. Should one like to compare the P/E ratios versus yields, they are still way out of line. That is unless 30 years is a reasonable time frame in which to become 'whole' on the investment. In my earliest economic lesson, I learned that a sum of money invested at 6% annual return would double in just over 11 years. Right now there are instruments that do that well with virtually no risk (assuming $ stability) at all. Some of them are even Tax exempt. This being the case, then a some of money so invested would grow by a multiplier of over 6 in the same time frame.

Whew, just what makes this runup reasonable? Absolutely nothing! And yet look at the stampede to get on board. You bet, this is one whale of a surprise.

bl
USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 18:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3118)
THX 1138 and Nugget 101....
The silver price has to be in the subject box surrounded by stars*************. We need 30 words or more on the biggest surprise so far in 1999.

You guys didn't think you'd get off that easy, did you?
Magician
(03/08/1999; 19:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3119)
********3/12 Ag:5.55********
Greetings All,

Biggest surprise this year has got to be the lackluster
Euro market! Can anyone say impotent? Could I say
unimportant? First off, this looks bad to fiat money
everywhere, except for the bestial US$. You can bet
that gnomes, brits and deutsch will all pinch
their metal with tighter grip as euro slips down to even
parity with $. Of course during all this, new questions will be begging concerns as to which nation's CB wants to hold which nation's warehouse pile of Tnotes. Of course Europhiles will try to stick our Fed with a consumately large pile of their fresh Tnotes. Will our boys(&girls) bite? Not likely. Not even the Fed knows for sure if gold's heralded monetary role can be usurped (though they have made a convincing go of it). Get more than one cook in on this stew and it will definitely to go sour. But
can Bretton Woods be thrown into the bonfire of the vanities? Probably not until after we REALLY have a war.

No doubt the US$ prime rates will relax again this year in attempt to forestall the storm in world politics and monetary policies brooding on the horizon ever since loose money coupled with efforts at gold devaluation began. Possible, but unlikely is introduction of more lucrative Eurobonds. Euro represents a more solid alternative to the cotton candy $, but the market (surprise surprise) does not seem to trust this yet.

Perhaps this says more for the continued position that Gold and PMs have historically occupied despite leveraged shorts,
gold loans and oodles of bad press. The truth still is that despite the several years of organized hype, competing world currencies will never move far from premium values for PM's until their favorite currency reigns supreme and despite
popular opinion, this will never happen. US$ seems to come closer and closer to supremacy, but the world will sooner switch to gold or other commodity based currencies. One question is when will spot prices come back in line with the huge premiums individual dealers must currently charge? Of course this discrepancy only serves to hamstring the market action further. That there is a discrepancy is underreported and big news, but is no big surprise to me.

This forum has grown much in a short while.
Says much for pm'rs who all want to keep in touch with market forces! Leave it to the glint of PM dangled before
us to get me to come out of the cyberworks with an opinion. I am really enjoying that coin tied to a stick,
hope you enjoyed the ride!

Nudges and winks,
Mr. Magician

PS: Would love to receive that comp'd ABC's book! Could
definitely enjoy a read through Mr Kosare's perspectives.
Goldfly
(03/08/1999; 19:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3120)
*******Silver 5.60*********
I'd say the surprise of the year is that Brazil got caught flat-footed at the economic breakdown. Was there *anyone* who said "Naw, not Brazil. They'll be fine."???? For months pundits were telling us it was about to tank. There was certainly ample warning.

In another way though, it's no surprise. It's just typical of how governments operate. Dawdle and obfuscate. Nothing is actually done until they are in pain, then they screw it up worse. 50% interest rates. Think about that. A sure sign of NO productive economic activity, beyond bare essentials.

We are not immune. The truth is out there....

I have to stop, this is making me sick.....

GF
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 19:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3121)
April gold in overseas trading...
now $293.10. Bollinger bands for 10 minute trades are tight. Suspect breakout to $$295 overnight. This, I suspect, will light a fire upon some in the New York trading AM. If gold hits $293.30 in next hour, then next stop $295 (we hopes). Weekly chart shows upper bollinger band at $$301 and it (the price) is stepping up to the plate.

Bill Murphy says, "...Gold closed some $3.30 higher today and silver closed about 8 cents higher. The price of gold
has gone up every day since Midas put out
his "major gold rally imminent!" bulletin last
Wednesday. We HAVE RECEIVED FURTHER CONFIRMATION
that our reasons for this prediction are right
on the money."

So what does Bill know?

Looking good. Go gold.

Gold just hit $293.20. $300 coming soon to a market near you.

NORTH OF 49
(03/08/1999; 20:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3122)
VIA SATILLITE
I knew it! I knew it! I knew it!!!!!

I turn my back on the gold market for one lousy day and what happens??!! I miss it all.

Arrived in "The country formerly known as the Evil Empire" a bit ago and had the opportunity to plug into a satillite link to download and post, although at US$ 13.00 a min, it'll be brief!!

Aristotle and Stranger, thanks for the Bon Voyage,--38 hours in and out of "planes, trains, and automobiles" pretty much discounts the "Bon" though.

It seems that my fellow members are doing an admirable job of spurring the market on in my absence--maybe I should hit the Crusade trail more often--I feel so inadequate.

Will post as I am given the chance, which may be more often than I expected--everybody here seems to have a cellular phone, so I take that as a good indicator of communication modernization.

Keep up the good work fellow miesters. Man it's cold here!!

No49
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 20:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3123)
30 minute chart on www.quote.com bollinger shows gold
in breakout formation for $294.00 now.

Ask is $293.30.



SteveH
(03/08/1999; 20:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3124)
Holy cow batman!
$293.50, asking $293.60. Peter, you awake.

Get the beer and chips this puppy is better than the super bowl.

Did you see that one?!!!
Silver Tongue
(03/08/1999; 20:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3125)
Gold
Well my brothers and sisters gold is starting to lose a little of its tarnish. Today I was proud to be a gold holder and this evening the news continues to be bullish. Maybe our long drought is over. Maybe we are entering the land of milk and golden honey. I would liek to see about $25 tacked on quickly to the price of the yeller stuff. Makes me want to break out into song, "Old Yeller, Come Back Yeller". That's about as much as I remember. Go Gold and go often.
Richard, Oregon
(03/08/1999; 20:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3126)
Anybody Besides Me Having Trouble Keeping Up??
This is terrific. Sooooo much to read I can't keep up. MK really did it this time. And getting gold to go up on the last day of the contest, man he's good, really good. Back to reading!!
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 21:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3127)
Steve
Yes, yes, I'm here. Fighting for keyboard time with the female entrepreneurs.

I figured friday for a trend-line breakout, but it wasn't dramatic. Now we're way out there, with Asia on an ascending chart line.

Not too shabby!!
ET
(03/08/1999; 21:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3128)
*** SI9H - Friday Close - $5.475 ***

Since I didn't have a clue what silver might do I called my silver trading buddy Gary C. to get some idea what he thought. He's out of the market. He sees silver moving higher this week but not much. He didn't like the breakdown last week. He says the rest of his buddies are still short. He didn't have high confidence in this prediction. He said it could just as easily move lower by 20-30 cents.

ET
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 21:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3129)
At the risk of appearing premature...
Let me remind you of my post twenty-four hours ago:
------------
Aristotle (3/7/99; 23:17:40MDT - Msg ID:3092)
Huh? Gold is rising on the Austalian/Hong Kong shift??
The last time I noticed such a freak occurrance, gold moved up over $10 in just a couple of days. Will history repeat?
---------------
Well, me lads at this table round, the trend continues yet again. UP really well in 'stralia and Hong Kong.
This might not be the day, but then again, it might. One day WILL be the breathtaking move that will leave you cursing that you knew better and wished you'd acted soon. Not this knight...I'm already on a gold standard. And what a peaceful easy feeling it is. ---Aristotle
backlash
(03/08/1999; 22:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3130)
TownCrier

Thanks for the link to y2knewswire location. Just finished looking it over and it is most germaine to our Y2K discussions at this site. I add my endorsement of checking it out for everyone here.

bl
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 22:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3131)
Steve, Aristotle, Gandalf
Spot just went to $292.05
The Stranger
(03/08/1999; 22:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3132)
All is Well in Camelot Tonight...
Sleep soundly Knights of Table Round. Merlin hath done his magic well...
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 23:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3133)
Signing off
It is uncanny how by mid contest time, the news seemed to go on a Y2K frenzy.

The most applicable quote that might apply to our prescient host (and group) would be Bob Dylan's, "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing." They'll never make a case for Michael choosing contest topics based on insider information!

I can see my post title has turned out to describe the work of this whole group throughout this fantastic four day binge of reality, "Y2K, The Alignment of Data." And a major AU chart breakout for an aperitive

With extreme praise and affection for all,

Peter A.
Gandalf the White
(03/08/1999; 23:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3134)
GC9J --- WOWERS
Just returned from filing some more claims and what do I find but The Stranger, Steve, Peter and all have tied a rocket under the GC9J --- Just hit 293.7 with a 30 minute lag --- You may be right Steve and if the overnight price gets to 295 before it hits NY --- IT COULD BLAST LIMIT !!
Like Aragorn advised --- get your gold before it is toooo late. tick tick tock ---
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 23:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3135)
Magician--5.55
SteveH already has that number and I'm just below him at 5.542. Now ET's in @ 5.475 (which puts me in a .075 cent box).

GAAAAANDALF !! I need a 4 day lease or forward sale of your magic powder.
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 23:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3136)
*********silver to be $5.000********* What's silver? Does it bite?
Gold to get away, and silver will be sold as the only recourse??? I feel silly taking part in this because the only real question on my mind is "Silver? What's silver, eh?" I've never found much use for the stuff, although it sure polishes up like nothing else on earth. I have a silver ring I am partial to, but that's about as far as it goes.

The biggest surprise of the past year was the wholesale abandonment of the fundamental concept of value. Of the nations that haven't been summarily reduced by one form of the asian contagion or another, the national policies and individual investment decisions clearly demonstrate an unwavering preference to build Dollar Wealth rather than Real Wealth. Competitive devaluations are a good example. Why on earth would you choose to GIVE AWAY your nation's products and resources in exchange for a net gain in foreign currency? And yet we saw country after country willingly? yield to a devaluation so that competing imports were not to be obtained as cheaply as they otherwise might have been. For the purposes of this single post, my view is certainly simplistic, but given the choice of access to cheap real goods right now, vs. a larger quantity of cash of uncertain purchasing power into the future, I'd choose the goods each and every time. After all, that is what money is all about--swapping for the real goods you need to thrive. While those decisions are beyond the control of the people, look no further than the stock market mania in the U.S. vs. cheap commodities to convince yourself that the people share this same cash-lust. Will their well-demonstrated greed-driven decisions allow them to exit the market in time to spend those dollars on goods while the price is still right? Nope. The near-term future surprise will be the speed at which gold reveals its true value. Do I care? Not really, because I stand before you with feet apart, hands on hips, chest out, chin up, countenance of a calmness that inspires confidence...I am GOLD-MAN! with nary a fiat dollar to my name, living paycheck to paycheck paying all bills and converting the remainder to gold. Try it. You'll like it. (It sure beats writhing with the masses in some future self-determined financial obliteration).
The peace of mind is so complete, when a tree falls in the empty forest, indeed I hear it; and too, the accompanying sound of rousing applause by one hand clapping. Life is every bit as good as the control with which you choose to live it on your terms. Y2K is bad. Gold is good. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 00:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3137)
Gandalf...
Doesn't something give you the feeling that Aragorn already has all the gold he'll probably ever need? I doubt he's waiting for some magical price to 'buy'.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 00:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3138)
AEL and ET
I wanted to be sure that I properly thanked you both specifically for the well-considered opinions Sunday on the "value of cash"-question that I raised. I don't know that I can say that you are right, but I can say that we are in total agreement on the matter.
Some small stock of cash is prudent, but the bulk had best be tangibles, and gold would represent that portion that you would want to remain in a liquid, readily convertible form of wealth. Time to saw logs. (can't let that fallen tree go the waste!) ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 00:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3139)
My "vision" of Aragorn III
YES Aristotle, I envision Aragorn III being somewhat similar to the old comic book story of the Grandfather figure to Donald's three nephews (Huey, Dewey, and Louie). Remember the pictures of him sitting amoungst the piles of gold coins and bars. McScrouge Duck, if my memory is not failing me again. BUT, we all know that Aragorn III is the most sharing Goldheart of all. Come on A3, give us your encouragement again as the awaited for party may be about to begin. Like Aragorn III says, Got Gold ?
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 00:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3140)
Seeing lots of these lately
HEADLINE: Recent euro weakness due to strong dollar-Schioppa-- March 9 (Reuters)

Yet another in a string of news releases that state the euro's recent weakness is more an indicator of a strong dollar than of anything related to the euro.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bj.html
turbohawg
(03/09/1999; 01:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3141)
Backlash
Salud !!! You can join in anytime ... in fact, I say we kick it off early ... we need to start a countdown to the Y2K crash bash !!!
SteveH
(03/09/1999; 01:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3142)
Took a nap, drum rolls please...
$293.90 for April gold now. All technicals are go for a lift off.

Stochastics, check.
RSI, check.
MACD, crossing, check.
On balance volume, check.

T minus five hours and counting...tick, tock, tick, tock.......


Houston, all systems are a go.......
turbohawg
(03/09/1999; 02:00:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3143)
almost forgot
that's 297 days and counting till the big event ... crash or bash ??
SteveH
(03/09/1999; 05:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3144)
April ______ now ....
$294.20!
T. Remital
(03/09/1999; 06:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3145)
TOOT-TOOT
Very little to stop this train now..a few minor bumps
along the way,600 here we come...
The Stranger
(03/09/1999; 06:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3146)
We Have Lift Off!
8:30 A.M. in New York. Gold already up $2.10. Long bond already down 1/2 point. It sure is great to have you guys to share this with.

Gandalf- try Scrooge McDuck.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 07:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3147)
This phenomenon was referred to in a recent post
Having recently encountered this good summary, thought I'd pass it along for those not familiar with the report. I'm sure you'll make the connection.

The Hundredth Monkey--by Ken Keyes, jr.
The Japanese monkey, Macaca fuscata, had been observed in the wild for a period of over 30 years.
In 1952, on the island of Koshima, scientists were providing monkeys with sweet potatoes dropped in the sand. The monkeys liked the taste of the raw sweet potatoes, but they found the dirt unpleasant.
An 18-month-old female named Imo found she could solve the problem by washing the potatoes in a nearby stream. She taught this trick to her mother. Her playmates also learned this new way and they taught their mothers too.
This cultural innovation was gradually picked up by various monkeys before the eyes of the scientists.
Between 1952 and 1958 all the young monkeys learned to wash the sandy sweet potatoes to make them more palatable.
Only the adults who imitated their children learned this social improvement. Other adults kept eating the dirty sweet potatoes.
Then something startling took place. In the autumn of 1958, a certain number of Koshima monkeys were washing sweet potatoes -- the exact number is not known.
Let us suppose that when the sun rose one morning there were 99 monkeys on Koshima Island who had learned to wash their sweet potatoes.
Let's further suppose that later that morning, the hundredth monkey learned to wash potatoes.
THEN IT HAPPENED!
By that evening almost everyone in the tribe was washing sweet potatoes before eating them.
The added energy of this hundredth monkey somehow created an ideological breakthrough!
But notice.
A most surprising thing observed by these scientists was that the habit of washing sweet potatoes then jumped over the sea --
Colonies of monkeys on other islands and the mainland troop of monkeys at Takasakiyama began washing their sweet potatoes.
Thus, when a certain critical number achieves an awareness, this new awareness may be communicated from mind to mind.
Although the exact number may vary, this Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon means that when only a limited number of people know of a new way, it may remain the conscious property of these people.
But there is a point at which if only one more person tunes-in to a new awareness, a field is strengthened so that this awareness is picked up by almost everyone!

(from the book "The Hundredth Monkey" by Ken Keyes, jr. The book is not copyrighted and the material may be reproduced in whole or in part.) http://worldtrans.org/pos/monkey.html
ET
(03/09/1999; 07:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3148)
Aristotle, Peter

Aristotle - thanks for the kind words. It has been a fun weekend. I learned much. Hopefully this y2k thing will remain on the front burner here.

Peter - Ah, you've been boxed, but you've still got some room in there. I didn't post until late for fear of getting boxed also. I figured old Aristotle was lurking in the weeds and I noticed he posted right at the deadline. He's a sly one.

Well, it's off to Minneapolis for a couple of days. I'll look forward to returning to the forum. Thanks to all for an informative weekend.

ET
nugget101
(03/09/1999; 07:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3149)
From a Kitco post re monkeys
The Theory of the Hundredth Monkey Debunked



I was amused to see a reference to the myth of the Hundredth Monkey on your home page in the Cosmologies section.
The story about the miraculous transfer of new ideas amongst a colony of monkeys has been doing the rounds since
1979, but unfortunately is pure myth.

The origin of the tale is the 1979 Lyall Watson book, Lifetide. Watson has since confirmed he made the story up. In
1989, Watson said "It is a metaphor of my own making, based on very slim evidence and a great deal of hearsay. I have
never pretended otherwise."

True, a study of monkeys on Koshima island was undertaken in the 1950's by a group of Japanese anthropologists, and
potato washing was one of the behaviours observed. However, there is no evidence that the potato-washing was passed
on to other monkeys by anything other than simple observation of other monkeys. No monkeys on other islands
learned the trick "spontaneously" or "miraculously" Put simply, it never happened.

In essence, the whole report is folklore, encouraged by both Lyall Watson's book, and Ken Kesey's later 1982 book.

Of course, the truth or otherwise of this report does not disprove the underlying theory of "morphic resonance" as
Rupert Sheldrake terms it. In fact, I even find the theory somewhat attractive and believe the events of the Hundredth
Monkey are something that could happen.

However, I suppose my gripe is about this sort of stuff being passed off as "scientific fact". So long as it is presented as
myth or metaphor, I have no problems. I feel the same way when creationists try to convince me of the literal truth of
Genesis.

Anyway, just thought I'd blow off some steam. I'm not criticising your home page - I think it's great. Keep up the good
work.

GEK

Read the article that started all this: The Hundredth Monkey.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 08:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3150)
Nugget101 & ET
Nugget, thanks for providing the additional perspective on the critical-mass / monkey theory. We've seen this point reached in the stock market when the chart turned vertical a few years ago. Whether or not a fuzzy little island dweller washes its food or not, we need look no further than our personal human experiences to see where we are likely headed. Some things going up and some coming down (like tulips bitten by frost).

ET -- you'd be making a mistake to call me sly in regard to any motives or insight on my silver W.A.G. and the timing of the post. I'm sure that five-even is out of the ballpark of any neighboring predictions. The timing only represented a last minute decision to throw my hat in the ring...curious as to whether a W.A.G. would compare favorably to the careful analysis by many for familiar with the silver market. If my shooting from the hip costs someone else a hard-earned treasure, I would in good conscience defer the prize to them.
Back to counting monkeys...or not. ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 08:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3151)
Thanks McStranger
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/09/1999; 08:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3152)
Today's Gold Market Report: In Two Words. Short-Covering.
MARKET UPDATE (3/9/99): Gold moved solidly to higher ground this morning making
an 11 week high amidst high volume U.S. hedge fund short-covering. Yesterday there were
two bursts of short-covering in New York according to this morning's London Reuters
which knocked out technical resistance at the $292. level. Gold paused in Europe and then
bolted higher in the early going in New York on renewed short-covering from hedge funds.
Paul Nesbitt of T. Hoare and Co. stated that, "Another, higher close today will confirm that
we are very quickly going to test above the $299.00 level." One of the consistent opinions
we have heard from technical analysts here at USAGOLD is that when gold broke resistance
at $292 spot price there was not much in the way of resistance until we reached the $302
figure. Bridge News reports that one large U.S. trade house was selling into the rally
yesterday despite the already large short position in the yellow metal.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
JUMBOJIMBO
(03/09/1999; 09:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3153)
gold GOING up
THE US$ PRICE WILL SOAR SHORTLY; check out Bill Murphys "GOLD ANTI=TRUST ACTION". The shorts are on the run; the colluders are in disarray and its overdue GO GATA JUMBO JIMBO
backlash
(03/09/1999; 10:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3154)
Just Curious

Sir Gandalf, I happened to notice that each of your posts end with "<;-)" Does this mean something in particular? If so, would you mind sharing it? Maybe you explained it before my entry to this forum.

bl
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 11:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3155)
Hear ye! Let all of Earth bear impartial witness to these events
Many a knight, good and true, took aim at the target of March silver three days ere the ides.
Upon final inspection, which arrow will fairly come nearest the clout?
This royal subject was told to look for stars where stars should be; and an oration of thirty words--no less--would reveal the souls fit to toe the mark on the field of contest. Final judgement is reserved for the day appointed, yet look one and all upon these here that seem properly assembled:

Richard, Oregon (3/7/99; 21:38-MsgID:3081)
** 4.75 **

eulu (3/7/99; 16:22-MsgID:3069)
** 4.82 **

Gandalf the White (3/6/99; 22:59-MsgID:3038)
** 4.95 **

Aristotle (3/8/99; 23:56-MsgID:3136)
** 5.000 **

T. Remital (3/8/99; 09:59-MsgID:3102)
** 5.025 **

JA (3/7/99; 13:58-MsgID:3066)
** 5.10 **

backlash (3/7/99; 21:24-MsgID:3080)
** 5.10 **

backlash (3/8/99; 18:09-MsgID:3117)
** 5.10 **

Alchemist (3/8/99; 11:53-MsgID:3106)
** 5.30 **

pa kua (3/7/99; 22:52-MsgID:3088)
** 5.37 **

beesting (3/7/99; 00:21-MsgID:3045)
** 5.42 **

Peter Asher (3/6/99; 00:18-MsgID:3004)
** 5.542 **

ET (3/8/99; 21:31-MsgID:3128)
** 5.475 **

SteveH (3/7/99; 10:21-MsgID:3054)
** 5.55 **

Magician (3/8/99; 19:01-MsgID:3119)
** 5.55 **

Goldfly (3/8/99; 19:38-MsgID:3120)
** 5.60 **

Farfel (3/6/99; 19:25-MsgID:3032)
** 5.87 **

In observance of these events, only the King shall proclaim was is and never shall be. Appeals must be addressed accordingly with His Royal Majesty.
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 12:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3156)
"What is money?"
HEADLINE: Russia fails again to pay Canada for grain--March 9 (Reuters)

Russia misses its fifth payment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/zw.html

HEADLINE: Argentine shares open higher on Brazil-IMF deal--March 9 (Reuters)

Last paragraph mentions the Ecuador bank closures as a Monday through Thursday "national holiday" to deal with its currency crisis and rumors of foreign currency confiscations...some holiday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/ul.html
Clint H
(03/09/1999; 12:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3157)
backlash post 3154
A question directed to Sir Gandalf in post 3154, what does "<;-)" mean? The quality of the posts says it is not a dunce so it must be a Wizard.
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 19:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3158)
test
test
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 20:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3159)
Another test post
Posting should be back online soon.
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 20:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3160)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Pares Gains But Up on Tech. Bounce
New York-March 9-FWN--Gold was the lone gainer in the
precious metals complex today, drawing follow-through
buying from a technical bounce that occurred on Monday.
However, the market did pare its earlier gains on selling
pressure from a trade house that had been a buyer, sources
said.
Silver dipped when it was unable to penetrate
resistance, while platinum and palladium finished softer in
markets largely consolidating.
April gold, which closed last week at $289.50, got as
high as $295.50 today before pulling back to finish with a
70-cent gain to $293.40.
"There was upside follow-through from yesterday's
constructive technical performance," said Dave Rinehimer,
head of futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
Traders reported that there appeared to be fund short
covering both Monday, when April gold gained $3.20, and this
morning, when at its high it was up another $2.80.
"However, when we got up to the highs around the $295
area, we did see some selling pressure come out of a trade
house that has been a featured buyer over the last week or
so," Rinehimer said. "They had been a featured buyer when
the market was under $290 and started to do some selling
around $295 or so.
"I think that prompted some profit taking."
As for the gains in gold over the last couple of days,
Rinehimer said, "There haven't been any dramatic changes in
the fundamentals in this market. I think most of the move up
was technical in nature. And until the recent move up, the
market had been susceptible to short covering by the funds,
which I think we've seen recently."
A floor trader said the market broke up out of a price
channel when the April futures moved through the $291.50 to
the $292 area on Monday.
Both this trader and Rinehimer put resistance for April
gold at the Jan. 11 high of $296.50. "If we take that out,
we may go to $298 or maybe even $299," the trader said.
Resistance was put around $292.
Rinehimer said a key for gold will be the next
Commitment of Traders Report, as players look for any change
in the net position of the reportable non-commercial
category, which includes funds and which had been heavily
short in the last report.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 20:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3161)
Posting back online
Whew... posting is back online. There was a bug that popped up all of the sudden and it took me a long time to squash it. Everything should be back to normal. The only thing that I am not sure about is archiving. I have no good way to test it, so we will just have to wait and see how it goes tonight. If the archiving is not successful, I'll get it fixed tomorrow. Sorry about the trouble everyone.
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 20:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3162)
Clint H's answer to backlash's question
Yes Clint, the mark is the sign of the Wizard Gandalf of J.R.R.Tolkien's Middle Earth writings. The sign is a right eye winking, smiling Wizard, happy because of being amoungst the cadre of Goldhearts surrounding the FORUM Roundtable. "backlash", if you were to read the "Lord of the Rings" by JRRT, you would find many others that you know also. FRODO LIVES !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 20:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3163)
Thanks Jeff for squashing the "bug" !!
The whole evening without my dose of FORUM would be hard to take.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/09/1999; 20:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3164)
Salute to Jeff...
Thank you, my friend. For keeping the boiler stoked and the room warm. You are a tireless (though sometimes tired) and dedicated talent. You also know you're way around a computer. MK
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 21:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3165)
Y2K strikes the Round Table?
FOCUS-U.S., IMF still working on new credit plan--March 9 (Reuters)

Same tune, new singer. Borrowing money to pay back a loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bcw.html

HEADLINE: Currency board idea for Ecuador sets off debate--March 9 (Reuters)

Revealing comments into the nature of money
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bek.html

HEADLINE: Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval--(March 8) JOURNAL OF COMMERCE
http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm

HEADLINE: Y2K not OK for this investor--(March 9) CSM
http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/1999/03/08/text/p16s1.html
backlash
(03/09/1999; 21:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3166)
Thanks TownCrier for posting status.

Opps, sorry JA. I didn't review the late nite posts of the 7th, so did not realize 5.10 was taken. Too late now to change my projection; however, it is good to know that I just so happened to arrive at the same number as one so well studied in this field. I feel like I have already won just by being on the same number. You being the first Knight to this position, may I have the privilege of serving as your squire for the match? Let us watch and cheer together!

Good Luck. bl
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 21:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3167)
Here's a thought...
If a focused Round Table deliberation on Y2K has the ability to become manifested at the forum, what say we shift gears to talk about the potential impact of a very high price of gold?

Far be it for the likes of me to monitor and comment on each wiggle of the gold market, but you must admit, the novelty of a rising market holds a certain fascination. There will be up days and down days, but the trend as a whole has moved to favor the holders and not the accumulators. I hope you intend to make your move into gold soon if you are planning one.
So, having said that, I'd like to point out that following such a bold shift in the U.S. yesterday, gold did remarkably well oversees, and it is more remarkable that by day's end it ended over a half-dollar higher from the previous day. And yet again, the overseas markets are treating gold (so far) with the respect it deserves. It would seem that gold is poised now to demand higher prices, but don't be surprised by a valiant attempt by short sellers for one last hurrah. Foolish as we move further into Y2K awareness for the general population. ---Aristotle
Richard, Oregon
(03/09/1999; 21:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3168)
Comments!
Weighing In. . .

Aristotle, Goldfly, ET - You were discussing Value of Cash for several days. I just have a few comments only. I don't have time to write a book and I don't know that much.

Aristotle #3051 3/7 - "When the physical cash is withdrawn from the system of commerce (mid-year?) we will have to get by solely on electronic-type payments; credit cards, and checks (which are electronically cleared through the Fed)." [So you believe that ALL the physical cash will be hoarded, not 'spent' at all? I'm a small business owner and this would be disastrous, in all likelihood. I hope withdrawn cash would still be spent and you'd just go to the bank each day/week for your allocation. Remember the gas lines?]

"The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about." [This seems to be a prime statement (loses its purchasing) power you are basing all the rest of your thoughts on, yes/no? I ask, why will it loose it's purchasing power?]

{If we loose power, most businesses will be closed. No heat, computers, AC, freezers, etc. I'm NO convinced major problems will arise because of the severe need for service, ie. hospitals, nursing homes, groc stores.]

"But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?" [Why?? Maybe I'll have $10k in cash and will spend it. If digital is down, are you saying businesses won't take my cash?? If I'm open, I'll take cash in my store. A sale is a sale, period. This would allow me to pay MY employees partially in cash so they can buy what they need, in cash. Pass what there is along.]

ET 3/7 #3059 - "If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets." [How and/or why??]

" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed." [This would be BAD for all business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.]

I agree with all your thoughts for the most part but. . . . .I can't help but think we don't have a clear picture of what's going to happen. Something is NOT right, something is NOT seen at this time and will change your (our) thinking. . . . . IMHO. Really have enjoyed your thoughts.
Goldfly
(03/09/1999; 22:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3169)
Aristotle. A subject that perks up ones ears......

But define "A very high price."

$400? $500? $800? Four figures? Five?

GF
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 22:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3170)
Find that salt shaker, Goldfly !!
Here are Mr. Murphy's "slightly skewed" (IMHO) remarks.
Determine the wheat and toss out the chaff !!
====
From: Bill Murphy
To: Gandalf the White

Subject: Re: Midas du Metropole-gold up 4 days in a row
Date: Tuesday, March 09, 1999 8:37 PM

Midas du Metropole
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"
Q. Little Bear is in the 'doghouse'.
Which table do you think he'd be under ?
A. Gold, of course. But he is hopeful.
****Remind me to watch Little Bear more often.
Is this funny ?


March 9, 1999 - Spot Gold $292 up 70 cents - Spot Silver $5.24 down 4.5 cents

Technicals -

A fierce battle is on. Well, Caf� members: Indiana Jones, Shaka Zulu, James Darren, Anthony Quinn, Gregory Peck and David Niven did all that what we asked them to do - silence the "Guns of Navarone" resistance at $290. That was no small feat. That means that all those gold borrowers at the $290 level over the past two months are now underwater just a tad. While the battle for control of $290 was won by us in the short term, they will not give up the ghost without a further, fanatical fight. The trading volume on Comex today was a very heavy 110,00 contracts versus the 1999 daily average of 35,492 contracts. The intensity of the shorts to hold the line is why the price of gold sold
off today from today's high of $294.10. Goldman Sachs led a barrage of selling that took on spec short covering. The big surprise of the day was that the open interest yesterday went up 1741 contracts to a new recent high of 196,105 contracts. Most observers were looking for a big drop in the open interest as a result of spec short covering. The open interest increase is very good news. It means new longs have entered the long side. It also means
the gold borrowing shorts are having to get shorter to try and keep the gold price from rallying too far, too fast.
The gold game is just that right now- a game. We told you that Goldman Sachs was a big buyer last week. Was the market starting to get away from them as they have so much more buying to do? So they sat on it today, hoping to draw
in more sellers? Based on analyst comments after the close, it worked as most all were immediately bearish. The intrigue grows (see Goldman comment below). The fact that the price of gold sold off $2 from its high today is just an example of how intense this struggle over the gold price is going to be. It is one we think the shorts are going to lose and lose big. The already lost the battle of $290 at Navarone. Soon, they will lose the war and their effort to keep gold off the radar screen for the investment world.
We could easily get a first strike move to $340 in the months to come and then reach our $405 objective by year end. Silver is trading like a typical silver market after a liquidation. Normally, it takes two weeks for it to regain its composure and trend higher again. This time may be no different. Early in the day with gold moving up nicely, silver was sold off. Part of that was due to the unwinding of long silver/short gold spreads. In our opinion it is only a matter of time before silver resumes its upward price course. We still see $9.78 before the end of
the year.

Fundamentals -

"China denied a report by I.D.E.A., a consultancy, that the government set up a research committee to determine the timing of a devaluation. Still, mounting concern helped spur an outflow of funds large enough to prompt China to raise interest rates for U. S. dollar savings by almost 1
percentage point. Chinese investors are buying dollar-priced gold to protect their assets from a devaluation, traders said. "Every time there is any kind of currency crisis, it's good news for gold," said Tony Cadie, an analyst at Rice Rinaldi Turner & Co. in Johnannesburg."
According to John Brimelow the Tael premiums in Hong Kong do not confirm this Bloomberg story, but we thought you should be aware of it. The Hong Kong Tael premium was flat today.
The gold lease rates are still soft: .64 for one month and 1.02 for the six month. The Indian gold and silver premiums remain very firm. Gold-10.3% Silver-10.4%. These high rates bode will for the importing of both these
precious metals into India. To give you some idea of how gold demand was affected the Asian economic crisis, here is a tidbit: 30% of the goldsmith shops in Thailand shut down
last year. 6,000 closed down out of a total of 20,000. 1999 should be a turnaround time as demand is supposed to be very strong so far this year. The Chinese New Year buying was especially strong.
Theatre of the Absurd- from Daniel McConvey and Christy S. Ahn, both of Goldman Sachs, who do the precious metals research for that firm. We reported in the last Midas that the referendum to approve Swiss gold sales had been delayed from April 18 until next year by the Swiss Finance Ministry. We also said that we knew of great resistance of this proposal by the Swiss people in the countryside cantons. Yet, the news media (always negative about gold ) has been insinuating the gold sale was a fait accompli.
Goldman Sachs has been running around the world telling their clients how bearish the gold market is for some time now. They have been encouraging forward sales by producers and I would love to take a look at their own gold borrowing book. Any one want to guess on how many gold loans they took out at .7% to 1.5% for themselves or for clients? Until very recently, they had been big sellers for many, many months. Then yesterday they came out with a PRESS RELEASE saying that the delay of the Swiss gold sale announcement was a big deal. A PRESS RELEASE: "It could be very bullish news because the Swiss gold sales are such a big overhang in the market". Only Goldman made such a big deal out of this. In the same breath they say: "If this is true, we would view it as bullish for the gold market because our understanding is that the 2000 referendum could
be significantly more contentious both in timing and in content". Followed by: "Maintain market weight rating in gold sector and gold price forecasts of $290 gold in 1999 (what was that recent resistance price that our heroes
took out) and $300 in 2000 ( real bullish forecasts for their clients . The situation is far from clear and raises further questions". Give me a break. If this is not a cover for some other hidden agenda, I do not know what one is. Looks to me like this is some sort of reason they are
going to come up with why they are going to change their price forecasts down the road. DOLLARS TO DOUGHTNUTS, they will change their forecasts. They are in a bind. They have everyone short. They want out of the rest of their own shorts. They know the gold market is explosive now. So what to do? Put out this putrid pablem in a public forum so that they can use it as an excuse to change their mind. How many of the CAF� think that Goldman Sachs will tell their clients that they are changing their price forecasts BEFORE
THEY COVER THEIR OWN SHORTS. Nice honorable crowd we have here. It is very good news for us and shows how desperate the shorts have become.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares
There's really life in them there gold stocks. Some juniors have gone up 50% and more the past few days and the XAU has rallied too. Today, it closed flat at 64.93. However, the big cap gold stocks are suffering from negative gold commentary from most all of the prestigious gold analysts (Goldman, etc.). The reports about the price prospects for gold are so negative, or neutral, that the big money managers have shied away from buying the big caps to any great degree on this recent price run up. That means there is enormous pent up demand for these shares that should be unleashed in the near future when gold surprises mainstream Wall Street on a serious upside move. The highly regarded technician, Martin Pring declared a big picture breakout
for gold based on today's London fixes. For more on Martin Pring commentary-http://www.pring.com/rq6m5.htm.

The dollar index traded 99 today and has moved up sharply. The price of gold has been moving up with the dollar. Thus, the gold price in foreign currency terms is on a roll. In the last Midas we suggested to you that a move up in the price of gold in foreign currency terms often precludes a move up in dollar based gold. That has been the case so far again.

While Ted Arnold, famed gold bear analyst, was at Merrill Lynch he used to suggest that Warren Buffet had surely sold out his silver position. Now (at Prudential-Bache) he says Pru believes Buffet still has his position. Different firm, different commentary from T.A. "We would be amazed if he has managed to extricate himself without anyone if the market seeing it being done," he said (Reuters) He goes on. "Much of Buffett's silver sat in British warehouses, away from the more public glare of U. S. venues, which, helped build the impression of metal shortage". A major factor would be Indian demand, which Arnold said tailed off above $5.00 and disappeared come $5.50. Whither come Ted Arnold? Buffets sells, then Buffet has not sold anything.
He says "Indian demand disappeared", yet John Brimelow has tracked Indian silver demand every day these past months and NOT ONCE did the Indian premiums dip below a point that was not ample to encourage imports. We have the documentation on that. Of course, sticker shock pricing affects demand on quick price run ups, but to say it disappeared is just dead wrong. In conclusion, Arnold doubts that any prices above $6.00 can be sustained.
We will be all over him when the price of silver goes $7 bid. Midas cannot get ONE mainstream press person to give him the time of day about our reasons for a bullish silver price forecast. NOT ONE. Yet, just when gold starts to rear its head up who manages to subtly get Bloomberg's attention (Mar. 9)- Good old crybaby, Martin Armstrong, who is the biggest silver trader and most notorious short on Comex. This mega silver bear puts out his bearish spiel to the press and they eat it up. "Somebody tried to squeeze the market again in February. There were rumors from London that Warren Buffet bought more silver and pushed it up for
March. He would be nuts if he did ( yeah, Warren Buffet is nuts, right ) but it took the price up to a recent high of $5.81 an ounce. Somebody was involved. Lease rates went up dramatically". ( Martin take a look. They are still way up.)
"Quite frankly, unfortunately, there has been a kind of manipulation, professional trading in the silver markets. A lot of normal trading activity is not just there anymore�They're still in a deflationary mode, and despite the shananigans of a few players who keep trying to talk up the market into a bull market again, there has been no interest from the street". Martin- take out a Caf� membership. There is big interest in silver here and we live on streets. Midas thinks the price of silver is going to $9.78 in 1999. Your propaganda is getting old and so is your whining about "nobody is interested in commodities". Midas might be a nobody, but this "nobody" is interested. And Martin, while your at it, please give me your technical take
on the rising CRB Index and the surge in the price of oil. Maybe Martin is right. Maybe Midas is right. Stay tuned.
Midas would like all the GATA contributors to know that your contributions are going towards a cause that is history making already. I can say that because we are being fed fundamental information by some of the most informed people in the gold world as a result of the GATA visibility. These people want to help us and want GATA to succeed. As a result of that information, we put out our "major gold rally imminent" bulletin last Wednesday. Since that bulletin, gold has closed higher every day. The shorts
know that we are coming and all our efforts is already having some effect in their thinking. For future reference, remember this Reuters-March 8- notation-"One of the American houses has been buying substantial amounts. It
looks to me like a mine buyback," said one.


Midas
Bill Murphy ( Midas )
After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the 1998 Gold Book Annual.
Disclaimer notice: Midas du Metropole does not look like an investment advisor, nor is he one. Any comments about any gold and silver shares by Midas or any of the Cafe members are for your information and entertainment only. They should not be regarded as advice and should be treated like
comments passed on at any other Cafe. We are only relating as to what we like for our own accounts.
====
WOW He still must be in great shape as he sure is long-winded !!
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 23:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3171)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
The King's Council of Wisedom is reviewing the wealth of information brought forth during the five days past.

In the meanwhile, I should like to direct your attention to an update to these fair pages. Commentary from World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley is to be found as "WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (March 1 - March 5, 1999)."
Follow the links via the USAGOLD Home Page to This Week in Gold.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 23:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3172)
Reply to Goldfly (& Richard)
Goldfly--"Aristotle, A subject that perks up ones ears...
But define 'A very high price.'
$400? $500? $800? Four figures? Five?"

$1,200 seems like a reasonable place to start.

Richard, I'm preparing responses to your questions. I'm glad you are not accepting this info at first glance, because we can't have a dialog with only one side represented. Even though you said you are largely in agreement, a small degree of devil's advocacy is good for us all. Helps to sharped the thoughts and better account for the many variables. ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 01:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3173)
April gold now $293.00, firming
TA shows gold volume increased well above norm for last seven weeks with this week and last two, then six weeks ago and seven being the highest volume yet. Trading appears to be like a stock under heavy accumulation now. Stochastic, MACD, Relative Strength index, and On balance volume all show bullish indications. But the real kicker is the weekly bollinger shows that over the course of the next six weeks gold should extend up to its upper weekly bollinger that now sits at $301.
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 01:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3174)
Reply as promised to Richard...the projected value of the unit called "dollar"
[So you believe that ALL the physical cash will be hoarded, not 'spent' at all? I'm a small business owner and this would be disastrous, in all likelihood. I hope withdrawn cash would still be spent and you'd just go to the bank each day/week for your allocation.--R.]

Richard, this is a good example of Gresham's law in action, with the physical cash playing the role of the strong currency. When somebody enters your business to engage in a transaction, given a choice (as they would have if they pulled their cash early from the bank while still maintaining a checking account--like from a direct-deposit salary paycheck), they would opt to spend the electronic money and sit on the physical cash for a rainy day (post-2000). The very reason they pulled this cash from their accounts to begin with was in anticipation of the rainy-day need. And sure, if they completely DRAINED their accounts and had no other means with which to pay your bill, they would have NO CHOICE but to use their physical cash. You, in turn, would likely sit on it for similar reasons. Or the next guy would, etc.
And to your last point...if there was a weekly allocation to be had, it would be 'hoarded', while you spent the digital account-money to meet your needs during the remainder of 1999, with the goal likely being not to have any left at risk in the account during the rollover to 2000. Many people have this as a legitimate concern.

"The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about."--A. [This seems to be a prime statement (loses its purchasing power) you are basing all the rest of your thoughts on, yes/no? I ask, why will it lose it's purchasing power?--R.]

Richard, remember that this is all founded upon best conjecture. No absolutes. I could be wrong, certainly. But with ET on my side, what would be the odds of that? :-) YES, the argument is built upon the premise that the dollar-unit as a medium of exchange will lose its purchasing power based on the law of supply and demand. During the remainder of 1999, lots of dollars in the world (of limited use when you are trying to secure your future well-being in REAL terms) will be chasing around a small supply of generators, food, fuel, and other supplies deemed vital to the task at hand (survival?) The suppliers of these limited goods will be able to "name their price"! and hence, make the dollars lose purchasing power. What will the Govt do during this time? They are a big participant in the real economy, and they will be competing for goods also. They sure won't hesitate to spend into the red during the duration of 1999--they do so every year! If the timeframe were longer, you would likely see the appearance of ever larger denominations of currency as in Germany from 1919-1923, particularly the final year. But that's another issue. To answer your question directly, people won't want the money, they will want the things that money will buy--at any cost! And when beanie babies are the only things left on store shelves, this soon-to-be-ZAPPED digital money still in accounts will be directed in huge amounts toward anyone willing to take the final gamble and part with some of their gold to risk having this seemingly huge digital dollar 'profit' possibly survive the Y2K glitches. Tangibles will be king. Shop early!

[If we lose power, most businesses will be closed. No heat, computers, AC, freezers, etc. I'm NOT convinced major problems will arise because of the severe need for service, ie. hospitals, nursing homes, groc stores.--R.]
I would like to share your optimism, Richard. I some measure I do. However, wanting something and having it be so are not always paired as we would like. During the Ethiopian famines, there was a "severe need" for all that you mentioned, and yet people died. Apples and oranges, I know...but it kinda makes my point.

"But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?"--A. [Why?? Maybe I'll have $10k in cash and will spend it. If digital is down, are you saying businesses won't take my cash?? If I'm open, I'll take cash in my store. A sale is a sale, period. This would allow me to pay MY employees partially in cash so they can buy what they need, in cash. Pass what there is along.--R.]

Ok, Richard, we must both be clear that with digital money down, we are assuming we are now on the other side of 2000 and this horrendous competition for real goods has come to pass--with all the price inflation it portends. As a shop owner, if you were selling cans of soup during late 1999 for $50 per can, accepting checks, credit cards, or paper cash; why would your frame of mind allow a shift back to pre-panic prices? Tangibles would still be king. The dollar-unit as a viable medium of exchange has just been tossed upon the growing scrap heap of failed fiat world-currency experiments. Thirty years... not a bad run. Many expected much less!

"If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets."--ET [How and/or why??--R.]
" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed."--ET [This would be BAD for all business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.--R.]

Richard, I don't mean to horn in on ET's territory, but I've got a fine answer for you. Not many hours ago, our tireless TownCrier posted some news that contained this revealing article (see below). I suggest everyone read it as it presents some stark parallels between the going-down-in-flames Ecuador Sucre, and the seemingly invincible U.S. Dollar. The state of the banking system becomes everything to the viability of the currency. And that system is about to be tested in an unprecedented fashion. That might explain why at this early juncture, the U.S. Mint is already rationing P.M. coins out of necessity. Too many people have already "read the road ahead."

{{HEADLINE: Currency board idea for Ecuador sets off debate--March 9 (Reuters)
Revealing comments into the nature of money--Town Crier}}
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bek.html

I hope this proves helpful, or stimulates additional focused attention on this important matter. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 01:46:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3175)
SteveH, about your post just on the other side of 'War and Peace' here
I can totally see what you are describing and forecasting, and by which means. What I would like to know is this:
What happens to the 'Rules' that the technical traders live by when unprecedented forces come into play? I mean, with the thin supply of REAL GOLD (the kind you can fret over when it finds itself in your OTHER pocket), any degree of movement by the multitudes of regular folks into a gold-buying mood will destroy all technically driven buy and sell signals that the pro's use. Just like the internet stocks. Look at how many 'experts' lost their shirts by shorting them when they got 'too high too fast.' They kept going up, ever faster. And when the techies capitulated and covered their losing shorts, it drove the prices ever higher still.
Now, just think about the huge short position that gold is starting out with.

I think I speak for a friend when I say, "Got gold?" ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 05:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3176)
Aristotle
The scenario you describe would technically look like a very large bounce or gap in the chart then it would likely restart to be techically analyzable, but I know of know way to see ahead for such an event. I think folks are starting to go long gold as is evidence by the April contract numbers over the last seven weeks though.

It is ironic how it took gold two days to go five points up and 40 minutes to go down two. You might say it got Sach(ed).

April gold rising and am expecting $295 today again (depends on NY though). Currently $293.30, asking $293.50. $294.00 before NY maybe.
JA
(03/10/1999; 09:08:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3177)
Backlash
You didn't hurt my feelings, I was actually pleased to be in good company. While silver is above 5.10 now it still may have to retreat a little more before a move up. Of course If I were good at projecting commodity prices I would be wealthy. I typically tell people if you want to make lots of money in your investments do just the opposite of what I do and you will do just fine.
USAGOLD
(03/10/1999; 09:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3178)
Today's Gold Market Report: What's Morgan Stanley Up To? Could Chinese Central Bank Gold Purchases Turn Out to Be THE STORY in the Gold Market in 1999
MARKET UPDATE (3/10/99): Gold tracked sideways this morning apparently
attempting to catch its breath after the strong effort required to blow through the 292 upside
resistance figure. One of our sources* tells us that when gold hit the $295 figure, J.Aron in
New York was a "big seller." According to the same source the "major American bank
buying gold" referenced in gold reports the past few days is none other than Morgan
Stanley.

What should we read into this?

Over the years J. Aron has consistently led the charge in shorting gold, so this is nothing
new. It suggests, however, that the shorts are not ready to throw in the towel as some have
suggested. It is interesting though that on the other side of the equation, Morgan Stanley is
covering, and the big question in the gold market is "who are they representing?"

If you recall Morgan Stanley had been instrumental in persuading emerging nation central
banks to lease their gold. Are these same central banks now asking for their gold back in the
wake of the Asian contagion that has swept through those economies? Mr. Insider tells us
that the rumors circulating the floor with respect to Morgan Stanley range from covering for
an Asian central bank to the possibility of a large hedge fund covering. We go with the
former. We are uncertain of Morgan Stanley's role -- or if they even had one -- in the hedge
fund/gold carry trade debacle. As I recall they were not one of the banks involved in the
LTCM bailout. (If anybody has information to the contrary, please e-mail me and I will
clarify the matter here tomorrow.)

Gold market analysts will be watching to see if the short covering continues or if what just
transpired turns out to be an isolated event. Our guess is that with the changing tenor in the
gold market, there could be considerable covering in the future, as long as the strong
physical off-take continues. Physical offtake sets off all sorts of warning bells with the
shorts and there is little doubt that those short the market have still not shaken off the effects
of the inverted market of a few weeks ago. They have become ultra sensitive and that is why
the market did not take a dive yesterday when Aron led the bear charge. There was not much
follow through. In prior episodes, gold simply gave up and collapsed. This time it didn't.

In other gold news Bridge News passes along a Financial Times report that "China has been
told by a senior official at the national gold bureau that it should triple the ratio of gold held
in its foreign exchange reserves. The official argued China's reserves have become
excessively bloated with US dollars." Whether or not this revelation is tied to the reports
from Mr. Insider, we will leave to your discretion, but word travels quickly in gold circles
and nothing concerning the glittering yellow metal happens in a vacuum.

April gold hit $295.30 yesterday before selling off to close at $293.40. The rest of the week
should be very interesting. We invite you to stay tuned. Have a good day, fellow
goldmeisters.

*This new source for USAGOLD is actually an old friend of ours in the gold industry -- a
relationship that stretches over a fifteen year period. This individual knows everybody
who's anybody in the gold industry especially on the trading end. He has kindly consented
to becoming a regular source for this report. We will call him Mr. Insider.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 09:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3179)
MK's Mr. Insider -- and OUR OWN "Mr. Chartist"
Steve was right on the money again !! At 10:52 the APR Au broke out of the tight contraction of the Bol Bands and start its UPWARD movement !! WOW, with these two watching the "shop" all the Hobbits will have to do is debate with The Stranger and Aristotle as to the fine interpetations of the details. This is much more fun than watching the "boob tube" about the "Pres and Monica". Spoke today with a small business woman in Brazil about the devaluation of the Real and the doubling of value of an oz. of Au. She says that things are completely closed in the imports of goods and everyone is crossing their fingers. Reminds me of July + six months in 1997 Thailand !! Should we all be seeing these actions as precursers to what the future may be in the USA ?? Remember the old adage, "If one does not learn from history ---"
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 11:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3180)
From fringe to fad --
--- in one contest weekend. The hundredth monkey theory may have no scientific basis in fact but it seems to be operating in this instance. I mentioned Monday night, as our weekend event moved along, Y2K news Items started popping up like mushrooms after rain.Now our regional lumber chain just sent a notice for a major trade show with one of the seminars being "Y2K And You. Insure that your equipment and capabilities are compliant. A discussion on the potential impact of the year 2000 on your business and you."

The subject of the Internet fringe has now gone mainstream. America "99, having no "Everybody's doing it" game (other than the market) is jumping on this with both feet. I predict we are on the threshold of a new growth industry. Self sufficiency.



Michel! I"ll bring up the subject of P.M. coins, I imagine it's not yet on their agenda. (It's next Tuesday)
USAGOLD
(03/10/1999; 13:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3181)
Test
Just a test
KJS
(03/10/1999; 13:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3182)
Alan Greenspan: Old vs New

Will the Real Alan Greenspan Please Stand Up:

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/1999/march/greenspan.htm

www.capitalismmagazine.com/1999/march/greenspan.htm


Farfel
(03/10/1999; 13:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3183)
What's It All About, Alfie???? To Buy or Not to Buy GOLD.
I had breakfast with an extremely wealthy fellow today. He surprised me by calling me out of the blue a week ago and extending the invitation. He has strong ties to the Clinton government and various homes in the US and Switzerland. The subject of our discussion was a charity I had been involved with several years back (although I have since dissociated myself from the organization). As a member of the long suffering" gold investors' league, I will confess that I am not quite as charitable as I used to be. He asked me to breakfast in order to pick my brains about a project I suggested the charity pursue several years back. At that time, my proposal was summarily rejected but I was surprised how well he remembered it. Anyway, despite the VERY early morning hour, I agreed to meet with him.

Of course, whenever I meet with any businessman, it is usually inevitable that I will move the topic to gold at a certain point. Much to my surprise, the fellow informed me that he is a player in the market and has actively shorted gold for the past three years. He claimed to have made an EXTREMELY hefty sum, especially since he used the proceeds for a lot of hi-tech investment. When I asked him to explain how he knew to pursue such a profitable strategy, he did not answer, instead changing the subject.

Before breakfast ended, this time HE raised the subject of gold. He told me that "confidentially" it was time to bu gold and to do so in a very big way.

I expressed my doubts, noting the obvious, unrelenting government interference in the market and the Greenspan-Rubin duo's obvious desire to maintain the equities/bond bubbles and suppress the price of gold at any cost. Although I acknowledged that Y2K concerns are pushing gold sales higher, I imagined that US government intervention would ensure that gold's upspike would be limited and capped. From my perspective, although I had been a feverishly strong gold bull at one time, it now seemed the only logical strategy is to wait for the anti-gold Clinton regime to disappear before making a notable move into gold again.

He glared condescendingly at me as though he were listening to the thesis of a mere school child and he said, "Listen very closely...I can't tell you any specifics but gold is going to kick ass really soon and the move will blow your mind away. It has nothing to do with Y2K or any of that crap. The only guys preaching the Y2K BS don't know a damn thing about what's really happening in the market."

With that declaration, he grabbed the cheque, pulled out his credit card, and I realized our breakfast was over.

I told him that unless I knew the specific reasons why gold would go up, I did not see myself increasing my gold investments to any notable degree since I believed I would be asking to get my own "ass kicked."

As he got to his feet, he looked me dead in the eye and said (and I am only paraphrasing), "I'll tell you this much and it's true about today's gold market...when you have a business partner you've depended on for many years and you've been successful, then it's like a great love affair. But if one day you discover he's lying to you about everything and you're gonna end up the fall guy, then if you're really smart, you never show any anger. You just act as though everything's the same. You keep smiling at him every day, you continue doing business together as if nothing's changed, you never disagree on anything, you and the family go visit him and his family on weekends, and then when he least suspects it, then you go out and you cooly and quietly f__k him in the ass."

Although I have some theories, I still can't figure out the meaning of his message. It's been bugging me all morning.

Anybody have any suggestions?
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 13:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3184)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Platinum Suffers From Technical Weakness
New York-March 10-FWN--Platinum futures finished
sharply lower here today in a market that appears to be
suffering from technical weakness, with some sell stops
hit.
Otherwise, the precious metals complex was described as
relatively quiet, with gold continuing to consolidate above
an upside breakout level breached early this week, perhaps
getting a slight lift upward from weakness in the U.S.
dollar, sources said.
April gold added 80 cents to $294.20.
"Gold was just consolidating for the third day above
its technical breakout," said one trader, referring to a
surge on Monday when prices moved above $290.
"It's very range-bound. We have an options expiration
Friday, and until then we should stay between $290 and
$295."
Another trader commented that a softer U.S. dollar may
have helped gold futures some today. The dollar is down 1.25
Japanese yen at Y119.88.
May silver added 2.8 cents, but overall the metal was
described by one dealer as having "lost its luster."
"It's been abandoned; all the focus is on gold right
now," he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 14:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3185)
Bridge Gold News
NY Precious Metals Review:
Apr gold and May silver both saw an inside day, amid quiet and
lackluster trade. Apr gold's 80c uptick was somewhat positive, said traders,
noting that it could be consolidating before it repeats the rallies seen Monday and Tuesday.

London--Mar 10--China has been told by a senior official at the national
gold bureau that it should triple the ratio of gold held in its foreign
exchange reserves. The official argued China's reserves have become
excessively bloated with US dollars, UK national newspaper the Financial
Times reported today. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .14205

Tokyo--Mar 10--Profit-taking depressed spot gold following the overnight
late slip in the US market although a generally bullish sentiment prevented
a sharp drop in prices in Asia, dealers said. Heavy profit-taking on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange continued to weigh on spot platinum with no fresh
supportive factors. By Hiroyuki Fujiwara and Polly Yam in Hong Kong, Bridge
News, Story .2200

Frankfurt--Mar 9--Total gold assets registered by the European Central
Bank system were unchanged at 99.589 billion euros on Mar 5 compared with
the previous week. In its weekly financial statement, released today, the
ECB also said that euro-zone central bank foreign currency assets stood at
223.7 billion euros on Mar 5, down 1.5 billion euros from the week before.
Bridge News, Story .782

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 14:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3186)
Farfel's breakfast meeting comments
Please Farfel, remind me to NEVER play cards with you !!
<;-)
nugget101
(03/10/1999; 14:46:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3187)
Farfel
It appears to me that he might be referring to US foreign economic policy. Perhaps the rest of the world (europe, asia, mid east?) have felt that they have been forced to buy treasuries and dollars and now are prepared to sink the dollar. Perhaps by forcing the US to spend gold reserves to prop up the currency.

As an aside. The Discovery channel is having a story about Fort Knox tonight. Coincedence? Or are we subtly being fed a line that the US financial situation is solid? Think we will see piles of gold? I don't think so.
backlash
(03/10/1999; 14:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3188)
JA and Farfel

JA,

'tis I who feels honored to be in the company of one who possesses such fine knowledge. Does that mean that I may indeed be your squire in this contest most honorable?


Farfel,

A little tale to add to your post #3183 of a while ago.

Many years ago, my brother and I went to a racetrack (horse) for the first time. While there we ran into a man who was friends with my boss and I knew him to frequent the track very regularly. Likewise, it was known to me that he was "in" with the track and horse owners.

After a few amenities, we (being dumb as rocks at this) asked him for advice on betting. He rather dodged the query and chatted about other subjects for a minute. Then as he was leaving, he leaned over to the race sheet we had on the table, pointed to one particular horse in just one race and "suggested" that that was the only one he would waste any time on, and promptly walked away.

That horse was not particularly a long shot, but was well down on the tote sheet and presented rather a substantial payoff. Certainly not one that anyone would pick other than as a WAG. Guess what! You bet, a win ticket on that horse paid something on the order of 50:1.

No way in reason for that to have happened without some sort of previous knowledge. We did not see him the rest of the day.

Your tale has, to me, some very similar circumstances to my experience, and with a person of "inside" knowledge.

You asked for suggestions. TAKE MUCH HEED TO HIS COMMENTS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. Thank you for sharing that experience with this table round. I think that prognostications from this forum are about to come true. What to do?

***** BUY ALL THE GOLD YOU CAN GET YOUR HANDS ON *****


By the way, is there any chance that the 'business partner' your acquaintance alluded to as having lied could possibly be Uncle Bill?

Mike, you might well get ready for a landslide of business.

Best Wishes, bl
Voyager
(03/10/1999; 14:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3189)
Origional Forum Lurker
Gentlemen of this Fabulous Forum. I wish to thank all of you for your gold education. Being only an infant goldmiester (almost one year), the gold world is a far more complex than I ever imagined. In the 70's, I considered gold but did not have the knowledge or courage to make the move. However, I have been waiting since for another opportunity. Last year, thanks to the assistance MK, I "GOT GOLD". My question to the forum is what would you consider as the best asset allocation between gold, stocks/bonds, business, and personal assets? I very much liked the opinion that the market does not have to crash for gold to appreciate. P.S. When do you guys sleep?
The Stranger
(03/10/1999; 15:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3190)
Okay, Farfel....how 'bout this?
What a great post. Now we can all spend the rest of the evening mulling this mystery. Anyway here is my interpretation:

Start with awknowledging that "Alfie" has been a lot smarter than you have been lately. (That's OK, he's been a lot smarter than I have been, too). If so, then accept that, in his mind (and mine, too), your premise about:

..."the obvious, unrelenting government
interference in the market and the Greenspan-Rubin
duo's obvious desire to maintain the equities/bond
bubbles and suppress the price of gold at any cost"...

is FALSE.

Greenspan and Rubin are both very bright men, far more concerned with their place in history than in maintaining some hairbrained conspiracy that could never succeed anyway. The great frustration for both of these men is that they labor for a president who has taken credit for everything they have done, though he only went along with their policies for reasons of political expediency. (And this doesn't even consider how he has disgraced them with his personal behavior.)

There is only one secret I know that Grnspn/Rbn keep from the world, and it goes to what Alfie meant about the coming rally being much bigger than Y2K. That is the secret about the intentional return to higher inflation and rising interest rates. All of this is happening right when we are set to begin the next presidential election. Reinflation may be right for the world at this juncture, but it will preclude a Gore presidency. And, though Clinton might have normally been expected to participate in such policy, he's not getting that consideration this time. As Alfie might say, they are just going to f--k him in the a--.

As to the ostensible conspiracy to suppress gold prices, I would point out that the yellow metal hasn't behaved any worse than the rest of the commodity universe.

But, let's take heart, the worm has turned. Since Feb.26, energy prices have risen 11.8%. Grain prices have gone up 8%. You see, Farfel, to EVERYTHING there is a season, and that includes inflation. Your mistake with gold, if you made one, was in staying married to it.

That's one interpretation, anyway.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 16:10:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3191)
OILS relationship to GOLD
Oh, how I wish ANOTHER or FRIEND OF ANOTHER could help right now with there insight into this subject!!!
The New York Stockmarket hit a new all time high today:
Today's rally was driven largely by the OILS and the financials.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310149html
Gulf Arab producers said they favored a big cut in production.Oil producing countries could trim output and mop up a big glut.
At the local gas stations near my house,unleaded regular shot up 9 cents a gallon today.During the great Gold runup of the late 1970's,gasoline prices shot up at the same time Gold skyrocketed.Gold has started to act bullish,right now.
Could the recent meeting of the Gulf Arab Producers also have discussed an OIL for GOLD payment plan?????


NUGGET 101--Can't get discovery channel where we (live in the sticks no cable here)keep us informed about the Fort Knox Gold here.Thanks In Advance.

Mr.FARFEL could my post have anything to do with your meeting today.Also I like the:I don't care I'm buying more,themesong you initiated.............beesting
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 16:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3192)
Keep your fingers crossed
Nice start in Asia with spot up 20 cents.

Farfel I'll be right back, heavy thought's need spell-check.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 16:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3193)
GC9J -- Apr Au -- Afterhours trading
Looks good so far as is back to the top of today's trading range. BUT, the surprise is the SIZE of the Ask -- OVER 100 contacts !! Looks as if someone does not want GC9J to move very much without some MAJOR action.
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3194)
Farfel
It may be that for gold to have been brought so low there had to be a global insider agreement not to buy any until "the word" is given. But, somebody's cheating and the game's afoot. I still believe that to two biggest secrets in the financial world, are the REAL reasons that gold has been so low and the market so high.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 17:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3195)
The Big Guys Don't Trust Each Other.
Disclosure rules for Central Banks.
IMF,BIS eye rules on FOREX disclosure.
http:www.barney.co.za/reuters/mar99/forex10.htm

Comment:Wouldn't it be nice if investors knew what was going on also.Isn't that what capitalism is all about???Investors help mega-corporations get started by lending money thru the purchase of corporate paper,get informed on minor matters,then when behind the scenes discussions are made public,get left holding worthless or partially worthless paper if the actions taken effect the corporation in a negative way. We have a saying in the U.S."Whats Good For The Goose Is Good For The Gander Too." Which translates into:The largest investors should experience just as much RISK as small investors...............beesting
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3196)
Better English
Man does not make sense by spell-check alone.

I still believe that the two biggest secrets in the financial world are; the REAL reasons why gold has been so low, and the market so high.
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3197)
Better
Spot now + 45cents @ 7:10 PM EST.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 17:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3198)
I wish that guy ...beesting would speak more clearly.


In my last post I was refering to the IMF as a lender that should suffer risk exposure,of course they obtain their investable funds,in a much different manner than ordinary investors..TAXATION................beesting
Phoenix
(03/10/1999; 17:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3199)
motto for mo
don't get mad,
GET EVEN!

Got gold?
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 17:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3200)
Good evening all.
Fort Knox story on 8:00pm EST.

April gold now $294.50.

Frankly it is beginning to seem like the real thing. Lots of separate and similar indicators pointing to longs having their way with gold finally.

TA shows, especially on daily chart, that she is tracking up the upper bollinger. Gold seems poised for two four-day back to back up days, making tomorrow the eigth day. That aside, as long as she is tracking up and not moving sideways we are breaking new ground (yes I know that is obvious). It is a question of momentum now. Today's volume on April futures is most recent highest yet. Momentum has broken out of it pattern, sitting at 5.8. Stochastic is only two-thirds of the way to its turning point. Relative Strength index (RSI) is also breaking out of its long-term trend and with a positive angle of significant proportion. The MACD shows a .87 divergence (blue over red), this is not often seen. The historical MACD is almost off the chart or least highest seen on my chart in a while. And the On Balance Volume is showing accumulation extraordinaire. I see $296 tonight, on New York in the morgan (not the dollar), $298??

She is tracking a new high. It is different now.
**GOLD GOBBLER**
(03/10/1999; 18:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3201)
REPLY TO FARFEL - MSG ID 3183
Regarding "La Farfalla" Farfel's Alfie post,

It was a pleasure reading it and all your posts here at USAGOLD (including all your past posts at Kitco).

My first impressions are:

1. Alfie **respects** your views on the Gold market. So, I agree he was "picking" your brain, NOT for views on your charity project, but on Gold. Your project 3 years ago that was trashed is just like your forecast of Gold 3 years ago which was also trashed. He wanted you to understand that.

2. Gold has not changed hands among the big players. To the sheep of the fold, it appears that Gold has moved from the "BIG" fish to the "LITTLE" fish. The goal was always to accumulate more and more AU at the lowest possible prices. In reality and in truth, it is the LITTLE fish who sell their gold to the BIG fish.
Gold will rise not because of Y2K, or OIL, or WARS. It will rise when the order is given to recover the gold that has been Leased/Shorted through vehicles such as large hedge funds. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUCH HEDGE FUNDS ARE BIG FISH WHO PART OF THE "BIG" SCHOOL OF BIG FISH. THEY WILL DIE HAPPILY KNOWING THEIR BRETHERN DO NOT GO HUNGRY FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

3. The man getting F__Ked up the Ass is Clinton. In time, well after the fiat bubble bursts, history will record WJC as one of the worst Presidents the US has ever had. Right now, we visit WJC with our family. Everything is cosy, just rosy. But the time will come when he gets it real good with a rifle up his A-Hole SIDEWAYS!!!
Voyager
(03/10/1999; 18:07:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3202)
DISCOVERY CHANNEL
"THE REAL FORT KNOX" THE HIGHLY GUARDED FORTRESS HOUSES U.S. GOLD RESERVES. 8:00 PM PST
The Stranger
(03/10/1999; 19:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3203)
Alfie II
How about countries are tired of having American hedge funds destroy their currencies, and the American government (read "Al Gore") vocally supporting the hedge funds' right to do so? Maybe "f---ked up the A--" means dumping dollar bank reserves in favor of gold. Boy, wouldn't that create a rally!

Fox News is reporting tonight that the Clintons left Utah, and Bill went to Central America without Hillary, because, according to friends, they are having marital problems. Friends quote Hillary as saying, "Not only do I not want to sleep with him, I cannot stand to be in the same room with him."

If SHE abandons him, everybody does. Maybe we will get a resignation, after all.
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3204)
Fort Knox
Show interviewed at least two folks (one an ex-Treasury official and other a teanage gold inventory taker) and both said they handled the gold that was 27 lbs heavy per bar and dusty. The ex-Treasury official said he has even stood on the gold. Great shots of M1-A1 tanks too. $294.60 for April gold now.
Richard, Oregon
(03/10/1999; 19:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3205)
Aristotle, Just Some Comments
Aristotle 3/8 #3136 - You said "What's silver, eh? I've never found much use for the stuff, although it sure polishes up like nothing else on earth. I have a silver ring I am partial to, but that's about as far as it goes." I guess you missed Gandalf's post last week on his 1981 experience. Ash him for the story or post #.

Aristotle (3/10/99; 01:31:22MDT - Msg ID:3174) I must have left my comments a work so I respond later.
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3206)
April gold now $294.70.
Asking $294.80. Peter, Gandalf you folks awake?

SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3207)
An elliott wave view
from kitco:

Date: Wed Mar 10 1999 19:44
Cobra (Wave Update................) ID#34459:
Copyright � 1999 Cobra /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Have had a chance to look at the hourly XAU and the April and June AU futures, Today may have been the last opportunity to pickup AU and not have to chase it. AU and the XAU had traced out 5 waves up from March 1st until 11 AM yesterday and then it looks like a very nice ABC correction on the hourly charts since 11 AM yesterday through 3 PM today.
This may have been all the pause we will see before an all out assault begins on $300.00 AU Immediately. XAU and AU firmed nicly at the close today. Wave one advanced aproximately $7.00, wave 3 could do at least 1.618 times wave one ,or up to around $303.50 initialy. If we are going to see a 3 wave, we will recognize it without a doubt. I think we will see AU $320.00 before the first serious interuption later on. From my work, Two closes over $303.00 and we are in a real bull market again.
CoBra
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3208)
Oil leading gold higher (and DOW too, if you can believe it)
China rumors of tripling their gold reserves. Hmmm.

From the press:

Energy Rally Helps Lift Dow Industrials 79.08 To Record High


NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 climbed to new highs Wednesday as energy stocks rallied on hopes that major oil producers will agree to cut output to bolster weak oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79.08 to end at 9772.84, eclipsing the record close of 9736.08 set last Friday. The Chicago Board of Trade's Dow industrials March futures contract settled up 107 points at 9797.

Among broad-market measures, the S&P 500 climbed 7.00 to end at 1286.84, four points above the closing high set Monday. The NYSE index rose 3.55, the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 13.06, the Amex index gained 3.69 and the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks added 1.92.

On the Big Board, advancing issues outpaced decliners 5 to 4 on moderate volume of 833 million shares, while Nasdaq gainers edged losers by 12 to 11 on 936.7 million shares traded.

Bond prices were lower, pushing the benchmark 30-year Treasury's yield - which moves opposite to the price - up to 5.55% from 5.53% late Tuesday. The dollar fell about 1 1/4 yen and about 1/2 cent against the euro.

Among global markets, Japan's Nikkei index surged 2.5% to close above 15,000. Hong Kong finished with a 2% gain and Brazil's Bovespa index rebounded more than 3%.

Oil issues rocketed higher as reports from the Middle East pointed to more production cutbacks by oil-producing nations, sending crude-oil futures well above $14 a barrel. Halliburton jumped 4 3/16, while BP-Amoco, Chevron, Exxon, Mobil and Schlumberger all climbed about 3 1/4. Shares of Global Industries, an oilfield-services company, surged 1 5/16, or 23%. Atlantic Richfield gained 2 5/8 as Janney Montgomery upgraded its rating to "hold" from "sell."

DuPont was another prominent blue-chip gainer. The stock jumped 3 13/16 after having hit a 52-week low just last week. The chemical giant announced it is searching for partners in the pharmaceuticals industry and said it expects to cement at least one alliance by the end of this year. DuPont also said it will create a so-called tracking stock for its life-sciences business. Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on the stock to "accumulate" from "hold."

Financial stocks gained ground, as speculation about the need for further consolidation among international banks was fueled by BNP's hostile bid for fellow French banks Societe Generale and Paribas - a combination that would create the world's biggest banking group, with assets of more than $1 trillion. J.P. Morgan climbed 3 1/8, Mellon rose 2 5/16, BankBoston added 1 13/16 and BankAmerica rose 1 1/2. Citigroup finished up 1 1/2 as Morgan Stanley raised earnings estimates.

Consumer lender Household International jumped 4 points after saying it plans to repurchase some $2 billion of its stock.

Semiconductor and related issues rebounded after taking a beating Tuesday. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor index ended up 2.5%. Intel rebounded 1 9/16 after tumbling Tuesday on rumors that the company may miss first-quarter earnings projections. Lam Research shot up 4 3/8, or 14%, Texas Instruments rose 2 15/16, Broadcom climbed 2 5/8 and Applied Materials added 2 1/8.

However, software stocks were under the gun as Morgan Stanley Dean Witter downgraded Computer Associates stock to "neutral" from "outperform," citing concerns about near-term demand, a change in its business model and increased competition. CA shares skidded 5 1/16, or 13%, while BMC Software fell 1 3/4 and SAP dropped 1 1/8.

Industry giant Microsoft eased 7/16 as hopes waned that the company will reach a settlement of its antitrust case with the Justice Department.

In the computer sector, Compaq slid 1 3/16 atop the Big Board actives while Dell topped the Nasdaq most-actives list, slipping 3/4. IBM lost 11/16 and Gateway tumbled 5 9/16.

Telecom-equipment maker Northern Telecom jumped 4 points as AT&T selected the company as a potential supplier of advanced voice-switching systems, but rival Lucent Technologies shed 2 5/16 as it launched a $1.36 billion bond offering.

Prominent stocks in the Internet sector drew buyers. Amazon.com climbed 7 3/16, America Online rose 2 11/16 and Yahoo! gained 6 5/16 as Merrill Lynch began coverage of the sector with positive comments. Merrill has a near-term "buy" rating on AOL and rates Amazon.com and Yahoo! "accumulate."

Lycos raced ahead 13 3/4 after BancBoston Robertson Stephens repeated its "buy" rating on the Web-portal company as prospects grow that an alternate suitor to USA Networks may emerge. CMGI, which holds 20% of Lycos, fell 2 3/4.

Among other Internet issues, Go2Net surged another 6 7/8, but CNET gave back 4 3/16 after recent stellar gains and eBay slid another 11 3/16.

Besides the rally in DuPont and the energy stocks, other commodity-dependent Dow components also registered gains. Minnesota Mining jumped 2 11/16, Union Carbide climbed 1 3/8 and Alcoa rebounded a point. Sears Roebuck rose 1 5/16. However, AT&T lost 1 9/16 and Goodyear Tire fell 1 1/4.

Weak outlooks hit several individual stocks hard. PSS World Medical skidded 2 1/4, or 19%, after issuing a forecast for earnings below analysts' expectations. Fluor skidded 4 5/16, a day after it predicted weaker-than-expected fiscal-year earnings and announced 5,000 layoffs. And, a weak outlook from Personnel Group of America sent shares of the staffing-services company down 2 5/8, or 28%.

Copyright (c) 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 20:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3209)
Hear ye! Hear ye! A contest update is at hand!
Good knights of the Round Table!
Word has reached me that the King's chambers are alive with debate among the castle Elders; which contestant uttered the words most replete with virtue? The year 2000 debate was well manned, and the King must assure the accolades are properly delivered. The final pronouncement is scheduled, and will be made Friday at the time the silver arrows may be inspected for the truth of their mark. The King's treasurer's are even now preparing the precious metals for transfer to the rightful new owners. We await the appointed hour together!
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 20:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3210)
Steve
Right here! Spot was @ +.60 an hour ago, but GCJ9 is showing 150 ask @ 294.8 -- Well, spot wags the futures; doesn't it?
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 20:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3211)
Goldfly & Richard
Richard, I'm sorry if my message in question came across as disparaging silver. Not my intent. The operative word was "I've"...me, and no other. "I'VE not had use for it." (I'm gold to the core) That is not to say silver is without virtue, and of benefit to others. My oldest friend loves the stuff and uses it accordingly...and yet I've seen his thoughts turn lately to gold. "The horses are on the track!" Richard, it is ALWAYS my pleasure to have these discussions.

Goldfly...seems we've managed to shake off a bit of the Y2K discussion (which remains a good topic for additional discussions) and have focused more on the changing role of gold to command a higher price. Let the discussion flow...

As for the past few days, I am once again happy to note that the price of gold is continuing to be treated well in the hands of the 'Strines' (heavily accented 'Australians') and HK's overnight. This is a fundamentally different market than before. It would be too simplistic to expect a languishing price for much longer. ---Aristotle
JA
(03/10/1999; 21:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3212)
Backlash
Your post caused me to do a little research as I was not sure just where the squire fit in the scheme of things as they relate to Knights and Knighthood. I learned from my World Book encyclopedia (as you were already obviously aware) that a squire is basically a Knight in training. I also learned that any knight could bestow knighthood on another. Sometimes men were knighted on the field on battle, but the ceremony usually took place during times of peace.

Religious ceremonies became part of the knighting ceremony when the ideals of Christianity became more closely linked with knighthood. Chivalry was the knight's code of behavior. The code of chivalry grew with the songs of the minstrels. Their poems show that a true knight had faith and a deep love of the Christian religion. He defended the church and was ready to die for it. He loved the land of his birth and gave generously to all.

I have done a little work on researching my ancestry and discovered both knights and kings in several lines, which made a trip through Europe a year ago a little more interesting. I suggested to may wife that maybe I should lay claim to the Tower of London since William the Conqueror who built the inner tower is in one line. Of course thousands of people could make the same claim.

Now days we are fighting a different variety of dragons and I am not sure what it takes to become a knight on this site. I suppose that is up to MK, if I am a knight then I would bestow knighthood upon you. I really suspect I am still a squire and you are likely already a knight.

While I suspect it a mute point I would propose the following. He who has the gold makes the rules which would be MK, however I do not recall a rule that two people can not post the some price, thus if on Friday fate falls on us I would be more than willing to share the prize in the form of silver coin or whatever. If that is not an option, I would hereby suggest to MK that the Prize go to you, since I was fortunate enough to arrive at a projected gold price closest to the price of gold during the last contest. It's only fitting that MK's gold gets disseminated to many.
JA
(03/10/1999; 21:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3213)
Michael
Pertaining to your question of whether Morgan Stanley was one of the banks involved in the
LTCM bailout I do not recall. However I do remember that the Wall Street Journal had an article that not only named all the banks, but also who attended from each bank and where they sat at the table. I didn't keep a copy of the Journal issue, but that would be a place to look.

When reading the above mentioned Wall Street Journal LTCM article, I remember thinking it would be interesting to check how many of the attendees at the meeting were also members of the Council on Foreign Relations? Without knowing I would guess 80 to 100%.

Richard, Oregon
(03/10/1999; 22:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3214)
Aristotle Please!
Aristotle (3/10/99; 20:24:43MDT - Msg ID:3211)
Your message did NOT come across as disparaging silver. I just surmised you found it to not be worth YOUR interest as an investment tool. I took am honored to sit at this Round Table and never take it for granted nor speak ill of those who so freely give of so much.

Aristotle (3/10/99; 01:31:22MDT - Msg ID:3174)
First of all, thanks for your feedback. Re: para #2 - So it is your belief that there will be NO cash available after AOC day (all out of cash). True? Do I remember you or someone guessing mid summer?

Re: para #4 - "The suppliers of these limited goods will be able to "name their price"! and hence, make the dollars lose purchasing power. What will the Govt do during this time?" Why wouldn't PRICE controls be enacted as they were in the '70s?

Re: para #6 - "During the Ethiopian famines, there was a "severe need" for all that you mentioned, and yet people died." So you believe this could possibly happen in say, NYC or Chicago, or LA. Who really knows? I think looting and rioting would be a very big problem if, like you suspect, power is interrupted for any length of time in most cities.

Re: para #8 - Some how in the light of looting and rioting, these could prove to be the smallest of our problems.

Re: the last two paragraphs - your and ET's attitude seem to me (IMHO) to be (ultra)conservative, yes?? Do you believe your scenario will truly play out?? And, if so, would you list the sequence of events in short bullet type statements??
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 22:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3215)
Yes Steve, I am awake.
You must remember that you are three hours ahead of all us out here on the frontier. Just finished watching the Fort Knox show and tank training. SOOOOO, do we all think that the "yellow stuff" is all there and well protected ? What do you think of the LARGE ask size quantities on GC9J ?
Would it not be great to hear from FOA in the near future!!
<;-)
HopeingII
(03/10/1999; 22:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3216)
Michael
Yes, Morgan Stanley is one of the firms involved
in th LTCM bailout.
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 23:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3217)
Gandalf
Quote.com shows 63 ask,@294.9 @ 23:00 EST. MRIC shows Last sale @ 00:48 EST at that price
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 23:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3218)
Thanks Peter for the update !
Sure looks as if somebody does not wish to allow GC9J to be at 295. or better in the afterhours trading tonight !! BUT we shall see what happens tomorrow in NY after high noon.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/11/1999; 00:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3219)
Answering a small voice in the crowd
Isn't this the question faced by many these days?

Voyager--
"...the gold world is a far more complex than I ever imagined. In the 70's, I considered gold but did not have the knowledge or courage to make the move. However, I have been waiting since for another opportunity. Last year, thanks to the assistance MK, I "GOT GOLD". My question to the forum is what would you consider as the best asset allocation between gold, stocks/bonds, business, and personal assets? I very much liked the opinion that the market does not have to crash for gold to appreciate."

You are to be congratulated on your patience and timing. Perhaps you are approaching our round table as a master, and not as apprentice? I do not attempt to provide investment advice, but rather set a table that is truly yours for the choosing. If you take a seat with past influence to "Choose the soup, choose the soup!", I have succeeded if I do no more than have you question whether the good stock of yesterday's soup remains in the dish served up today.

I recall a similar dialog many months ago with Yellowbird(?) wanting the answers you seek. My advice remains the same. Invest in your self. Put your resources to work in areas over which you have knowledge and control. You will easily find that personal assets provide expected benefits with low risk. Only you will know what is the limit of your risk tolerance. I assume you work and think each day, attempting to produce in excess of your daily needs. This becomes your wealth. Should you choose to buy shares of company stock, their fate becomes your wealth's fate. If this company is a sure thing to thrive, are you the only person with such knowledge? If information is known to everyone, it becomes useless, as the opportunity is surely past.

Gold is "known" only to an enlightened few. This is good information! You have already discovered gold for a reason. Pursue that reason further in your thoughts. Imagine extremes, act in moderation. Understand that the price of gold will develop independent of the bidding of any man. A higher price reveals the collapse of centrally managed economies, and marks the return of something closer to free and open markets. The dollar is the key agent. When the dollar is not well managed, as revealed by a rising price of gold, the economy cannot be "managed". And as ever, the free market always knows what is best, so this development is to be welcomed. Gold will deliver your wealth safely to the other side.

Bonds will suffer a fate worse than the currency they support, for at the long day's end, it is only the currency you receive, with little flexibility--and loss potential--throughout the wait for maturity. Not all bonds (as with currency) are created equal. Choose wisely, or do not choose at all!

I shall conclude in preparing the table with this small word. Internationally, the falling dollar value of gold and crises of currencies has woken some sleeping giants. There is pain to be recognized, yet more pain to be avoided. Currency has played an active role. Imagine that! What was to be a safety net of a nation's people, the cash savings of life's excess labor and productivity, has become the very net to ensnare them. Enough! Though you do not see it, "Times...they are a'changin'". A new practice is the manner in which some important Central Banks view their gold reserves. The best practice internationally is now to regularly mark the gold value at market. Among others, but notably, the vast EU gold inventory will quarterly receive a revaluation...March 31 being the next such event. A rising value of gold holdings as priced in dollars will do well to support a national currency's virtue, would it not? Though not an ounce more be added to the reserves, the nation becomes wealthier in gold--regaining a measure of freedom from U.S./dollar hegemony.
The U.S. Treasury still values its gold stock at $42.2222 per troy oz. Should we guess the day this policy is altered openly with pomp and circumstance in an attempt at a show of wealth? Or is their something to hide, instead?

got wealth?
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 02:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3220)
News you can Use
HEADLINE: Lawson says ECB unlikely to permit gold sales-- March 11 (Reuters)

Said to help the strength of euro against the dollar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310/bje.html

HEADLINE: Banks Cautioned To Keep Reserves--March 10 (AP)

Regulators warn financial institutions to set aside enough reserves for losses from global financial turmoil
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990310/regulators_1.html

HEADLINE: Public panic seen a top Y2K risk -U.S. experts--March 10 (Reuters)

Experts worry about massive runs on banks, gas stations, mutual funds, and the like...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310/63.html
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 03:11:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3221)
Jeff
Just in case no one's noticed, we're still on yesterday's cache.
SteveH
(03/11/1999; 03:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3222)
April gold
Now $294.80. Trading in a tight on 30 minute chart from $294 to $295. No clear direction defined. Large offers on the ask but bids seem to onesies-twosies. My take is that partials are being sold and the price is showing remarkable staying power with accumulation taking place. I believe, imo, that gold is staging for next move up. See now ...it just hit $295 while I was writing this. Anyway that is my current take, with this add'l comment now. She has shown a direction. It should track $295 upper bollinger band a bit and do this all over again at a higher level. At some point, if the price continues its upward momentus journey, we should see a large one-day rise or a gap in the charts as shorts start really covering. Will that happen? Volume is the key, volume, volume, volume.

Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 03:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3223)
BEAKOUT ??
GCJ9 295.70 @ 2:01 PST
SteveH
(03/11/1999; 06:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3224)
April gold now
$295.80 and had hit $296.50. Still tracking up.

Peter, NY open will prove interesting, if not exciting.
JA
(03/11/1999; 06:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3225)
Power and influence of Internet
Several at this site have commented on the power of the Internet and it's ability to disseminate information quickly. I would fully concur and as an example of that, I read yesterday where World net Daily is the second busiest site on the Internet with 3-4 million hits a day. For the most part I find the news there to be less filtered than what one finds in the major news media. The Internet may be the fail-safe from Orwell's "1984"

For those who have not frequented the site the address is:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/

JA
(03/11/1999; 06:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3226)
Social Security and the National Debt
I was recently reading an article Social Security written by Ralph R. Reiland, published in the New American that had several interesting quotes as follows.

The Princeton Economic Institute contends that "Under today's terms, if you are under 55 you have a greater chance of being abducted by aliens than ever seeing your first Social Security check."

"There is no Social Security trust fund," explains Investor's Business Daily. "It's a myth. Those extra taxes are spent through the general budget the day they are received; the Treasury just puts an IOU in the "trust fund."

This shell game, while providing a crafty was for politicians to buy votes and gather campaign cash through higher government spending, has left the Social Security trust fund with no real assets to meet future obligations. "If the government was required to show its current unfunded Social Security and Medicare liability, the national debt would be $17 trillion, rather that the $5 trillion," explains Mark Weinberger, former Chief of Staff for the Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform. These unfunded liabilities-money that should have been saved, but wasn't-are the equivalent of $120,000 in debt for every household in American.

The "present value" of these unfunded liabilities, a measure of how much money would need to be invested today to finance future benefits, reports Daniel J. Mitchell, a Senior Fellow in Political Economy at the Heritage Foundation, is $5.2 trillion. "Collecting that much money today," says Mitchell, "Would require imposing tax rates of more than 100 percent on everyone in the country."

While I suspect the above information is not new to members of this round table, it bears repeating. I suspect this does not bode well for the dollar long term. What can the government do but inflate their way out of it? All the more reason to have some retirement money's in gold and gold stocks.

Farfel

I found your breakfast meeting conversation interesting and have some thoughts but will need to wait to put them to writing. I was kind of curious what type of business this person is in and how he knows Clinton? Maybe you can't divulge that!


USAGOLD
(03/11/1999; 08:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3227)
Today's Gold Market Report: Oil, China & Short Covering



MARKET UPDATE (3/11/99): Gold gained momentum today despite recent attempts by
short sellers to drive the market down over the past two sessions giving impetus to the
growing sentiment that gold is gearing up for a breakout. Adding to the positive view on
gold was a Bridge report out of Australia that Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of Britain's
Exchequer, does not expect any significant gold sales by European central banks. This might
be news to some, but it is not news to those who read this Daily Report. Thank you, Mr.
Lawson. Instead of MI-6, try the USAGOLD Daily Market Report. That aside, gold is being
propelled by three major developments: short covering associated with the strong worldwide
physical demand for gold (this spasmodic dog might actually be regaining control of its tail);
rising oil prices in the wake of reports that oil producing countries might actually do
something to save their market; and reports that China might be gearing up to make massive
gold purchases. Reuters reports this morning that funds were buying in Europe. (An
interesting aside: Reuters is now linking gold news with Berkshire Hathaway's page. Has
Warren gone to gold? More precisely, does Reuters think that Warren has gone to gold?) By
the way all of this is occurring with the dollar rising against major currencies.

A comment about last night's Discovery special report on Fort Knox: Don't you think that all
that military hardware is a bit much to protect a barbarous relic that should be stored in the
barn along with the pork bellies and soybeans?

That's it for today. We'll check in with Mr. Insider at some point today and report back later
either this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters

The March issue of News & Views is in the final stages of preparation. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 08:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3228)
News you can use
HEADLINE: Risks rising for U.S. economy, Rubin says--March 11 (Reuters)

Rubin says world situation is not sustainable economically or politically
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/n9.html

HEADLINE: U.S. Trade Deficit Surges to Record--March 11 (AP)

Massive waves of goods for paper threaten backlash
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/trade_3.html

HEADLINE: Ecuador banks seek reopening, strong gov't moves--March 11 (Reuters)

Nervous people want their money out in cash
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/n3.html

HEADLINE: Federal Judge Rules Against Banks--March 11 (AP)

Banks show true colors
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/credit_uni_1.html
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 09:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3229)
Take time out to Surf this webpage !
If you have not been able to visit with folk from around the world that have experienced the drop in value of there national currency, then you should visit this eye opening webpage. Thanks to Prof. Werner Antweiler of the Univ. of British Columbia in Vancouver are charts of most all currencies versus a great number of other currencies and including an oz. of Gold and/or Silver. This allows for some interesting comparisons. Prof. Werner has granted permission to reproduce these charts, provided that the source and copyright are acknowledged. I was intending to show a "montage" of charts depicting the change in amount of local currencies vs. one oz. of Gold, but quickly determined that my computing skill did not equal my intent. SOOOO, I am encouraging all to visit the webpage at "http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html", enter the parameters of chart desired, ( I choose the period from June, 1, 1997 to date, to see from the start of the Thailand devaluation, which was the first of the Tigers to fall.) Once you have set the parameters, you can flip between the different currencies. Very interesting results !! Take a look at what just happened to the Ecuadoran Sucre vs. an oz. of Au !! Also look at surprises like the Israeli New Shekels and of course the Russian Ruble and others.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/11/1999; 10:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3230)
An interesting development
Germany's finance minister, Oskar Lafontaine has resigned.
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 10:38:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3231)
Newsflash--euro rebounds on news
HEADLINE: Euro powers higher vs dollar as Lafontaine quits--March 11 (Reuters)

Rumors that Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had also threatened to resign; currency target zones are kaput.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/zk.html
beesting
(03/11/1999; 10:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3232)
The Sleeping Golden Bull Has One Eye Part Way Open.
Gold has been in a downward trend for 19 years,but all signs point to a reversal.Somebody bought 100,000 shares of Barrick Gold(NYSE ABX)at 18.625 which equals $1,862,000.Could it be a Mutual Fund? Barrick is one of the worlds largest Gold producers.Me,I'm buying physical........beesting
backlash
(03/11/1999; 11:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3233)
JA and Farfel

Re: Squire. You have done well in your research. The Knight in Training (KIT) functions in many ways to support the Knight to whom his support is pledged. Assisting in handling the armor, maintaining the weapons, advising of enemies, and general confidant were but a few of the duties of the squire. Likewise, he was to be ready to step into the fray should the Knight happen to fall in battle.

Though our battle is not on some grassy glade, the enemy and danger are no less imminent I feel. By loss of the economic battles being waged by fiat monies, true wealth and possibly freedom could well be lost also. Yet to quit at a time as this would surely be totally ruinous to the entire world.

As a fellow Knight of this table round or as a squire to serve (and serve well to the best of my ability), I happily stand shoulder to shoulder with all to attend this site to do battle with the forces that would improperly take from the people.


To a second point now. - - Ref.: Farfel's post of his breakfast meeting.

Did I fail to comprehend what was said in the Post? Indeed in my response, I alluded to the possibility the Her Klinton was the one that had lied to his 'business partner' and tried to pose it as a question, not as a fact. In Farfel's post, I saw nothing that said WHO it was. Further, I guess I totally missed the association of "Alphie" to Alan Greenspan. Boy am I dense! Are there not plenty of people in high places that would also fit the criterion of Farfel's story?

There again, is something being read into this that was not there? I, for myself, find it necessary to NOT read into a post that which is not clearly stated. Possibly that is why I miss some things. Oh, well. Farfel, I need some help. I feel I am sinking into the abyss of naivety.

Let us all get Gold and watch what happens.


Best Wishes. bl
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 11:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3234)
Meanwhile, back at the stock market,
The 100 millionth monkey has decided that he will be able to tell his grandchildren "I was there when the Dow hit 10,000."

Maybe this will be the grand climax of a mob psycology agreement which will now flame out at this high altitude, where there's not enough earnings to support share value life.
Terzi
(03/11/1999; 11:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3235)
Main Uptrend Started
Hi everybody! I am new here and I will be happy to share my ideas with you. Please apoligize me for my bad english.

To my opinion Gold has started it's main UP-trend. This trend will at least last 8 months. In few days we may see very SHARP UP MOVEMENTS. Before that happens, a pull back till 292-3 possible.
Terzi
(03/11/1999; 11:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3236)
Main Uptrend Started
Hi everybody! I am new here and I will be happy to share my ideas with you. Please apoligize me for my bad english.

To my opinion Gold has started it's main UP-trend. This trend will at least last 8 months. In few days we may see very SHARP UP MOVEMENTS. Before that happens, a pull-back 'till $292-3 possible.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 11:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3237)
Misspelling of English words
I hereafter promise to never again snicker at the errors of misspelled works !! "there" is not equal to "their" and the brain is not able to sound the alarm until AFTER the posting is made ! So please do not worry about misspelled words -- just so that the idea gets through -- but if the message is too confusing -- just ask for another version. Thanks all.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 11:59:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3238)
Welcome Terzi
For your info -- the message right after yours was not related to you, BUT my previous message about the Charts. Welcome from afar Terzi !!
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 12:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3239)
Assorted news to help plan your retirement
HEADLINE: US BUDGET: Caps off to Cardinals--March 11, (FT.com)
(Registration required, no charge)

Frank discussion of the budget problems.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q88a02.htm

HEADLINE: German finance minister Lafontaine resigns--March 11, (FT.com)

Commentary touching upon many matters.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q8a026.htm

HEADLINE: German finance minister quits
Euro, analysts cheer Lafontaine's departure--March 11, (CBS.MW)

Summary of details...money and politics.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/germany.htx?source=blq/yhoo

HEADLINE: Treasury Bond Prices Move Lower--March 11, (AP)

A simple primer for those needing a crash course on bonds. Very simple...
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/bonds_2.html
The Stranger
(03/11/1999; 13:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3240)
Welcome, Terzi!
Where are you from?
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 13:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3241)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Firmer; Follow-through Lifts Gold Again

New York-March 11-FWN--Gold futures continued to add to
their recent gains in follow-through buying after a
recent technical breakout, sources said.
Silver futures also firmed, but stopped near the upper
end of its range, in a market that is awaiting the annual
report of Berkshire Hathaway this weekend.
April gold settled with a gain of $1.30 to $295.50.
"A couple days ago we had a nice technical breakout up
through a trendline," said Dave Meger, metals analyst with
Alaron Trading. And that technical strength, which has
prompted fund short covering, is continuing, he related.
This breakout point surpassed earlier this week was
around $290 to $291 in the April futures, he said.
Meger also pointed out that gold has drawn some support
from recent gains in the Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar today
is down 0.42 yen at Y119.36.
Despite the recent gains in gold, said Meger, activity
has not been heavy. Thus, the market will be watching for
the next Commitments of Traders report to see just how much
the funds have gotten out of their short positions, he
continued.
Meger put support for April gold at the overnight
ACCESS low of $294, then $291.50. Support was put at the
overnight ACCESS high of $296.50, which matched the high for
the year so far from Jan. 11, then $298, followed by the
psychological $300 level.

May silver futures added 7.5 cents to close at
$5.343.
The biggest event for the market this week will be the
annual report scheduled for release this weekend from famed
investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, sources have
been saying all week. In February 1998, Berkshire Hathaway
announced it had accumulated 129.7 million ounces of silver,
and the market will be looking for any indications of what
might have happened to this metal.
As for the upcoming Berkshire-Hathaway report, Meger
said, "I really have a hard time believing the market is
going to take whatever he says as very bullish."
If it turns out that some or all of the metal has been
sold, said Meger, this may dash the confidence of bulls.
Players may ask themselves: "If Buffett has sold, shouldwe?"
Some might say that if by chance Buffett should have
sold all of his silver, it will allow the market to go
higher because there will be the potential a Buffett sale
will no longer be hanging over the market.
However, Meger said, because Buffett is viewed as a
reputable investor, "I believe it would be looked at as
negative from the fact that if Buffett doesn't believe it's
going higher, it's probably not."
Later, Meger added: "Probably the best thing for this
market is if he (Buffett) says nothing. That could give you
the idea he is maybe saying nothing because he is either
planning on buying more, or has done nothing with his
position and believes we could still move higher."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
beesting
(03/11/1999; 13:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3242)
Welcome Turzi
The one thing we all have in common is an interest in GOLD,and believe me none of us write perfect English all the time,I'm the worst,just ask my fellow Knights...........beesting
Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 18:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3243)
Silver Coins
Somebody help me with this. What silver coins would one consider worth saving, possibly for the junk silver bags? I thought 1964 and earlier nickles, dimes, quarters, halves, and silver dollars, but I don't think nickels are included. Help!
ReverendJimBaker
(03/11/1999; 18:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3244)
Not so stranger
Stranger, you and I just might have crossed paths before. I think you were confessing your sins. Am I right?

Decent day for gold stocks. POG held very firm. Tomorrow could be interesting with the morning economic report. Inflation, here we come! Back up those bonds!

The fake baker

Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 20:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3245)
Listening In
I believe maybe the second best thing about this Round Table is that you can lean over and listen to the discussion of other Knights. The best would be the experience, expertise, and wisdom of our senior level, most gallant, Knights (you know who you are).

Aragorn III (3/11/99; 00:25:40MDT - Msg ID:3219) - I listened in and enjoyed hearing your views on wealth from Voyager. Many people believe a 10-20% precious metal position is good. I personally have gone stronger. Thanks for your explanation, it's one I'll save as part of my "ABCs". Voyager - MK's "The ABCs of Gold Investing" is a great starter book.
Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 20:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3246)
Y2K Stuff
Something I just remembered - thoughts regarding Y2K.

I obtained a commercial fueling account. It was easy to obtain. They are open 24 hours per day (you can fill up in the dead of night) and they might have fuel (since they cater to the commercial crowd) when/if others don't. Cost is cheaper, diesel in predominant, and you deal directly with digital $s.

Peter A - did you find your propane refrig?
Farfel
(03/11/1999; 20:23:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3247)
Interpreting Mr. Mystical GOLD SHORT's Message
My own interpretation is this (although I EMPHASIZE it is merely a theory based upon a day's meditation chewing over Mr. Mystical Gold Short's "ambiguous" hostile message to me):

I think that some funds have been shorting gold on the coat-tails/advice of other funds or Wall Street institutions (or maybe even the Treasury itself?) for several years now. Owing to the nature of this concerted action, it truly has been a de facto cartel (similar to OPEC). They have been doing this with the understanding that they can make brain dead money (gold carry trade) with essentially zero negative repercussions. The big money, of course, is made in buying bonds and stocks with cheap gold loans. It's been a great, profitable game to date as the DOW near 10,000 proves. Much of this spec money has been obtained from gold loans and yen carry trade.

However, the architects of the gold-carry trade (maybe?) failed to inform other big co-conspirators about the imperative of coming up with the physical gold to cover the short positions...or suggested that it would be NO BIG DEAL to do so in the future. This assurance might have been based on the "guarantee" that most of the major CB's would have disgorged their gold reserves by this date (1999) in some kind of gold SELL PANIC that actually failed to materialize. There has been gold price weakness to date, BUT NOT gold price collapse.

Now, with the developing threat of certain CB's making huge gold purchases over the short-term, these coat-tailers are facing financial ruin??

Moreover, they are discovering that their gold carry trade "mentors" have already moved stealthily into the gold market these past several months to cover their short positions without having the decency to let them know. They are being left to hang out and dry.

So how do you f___k your cheating co-conspirators without drawing attention?"

You assure them that you will be there to support the great equities bubble just as you have always done in the past..but instead, you and several other big market player buddies (who have also been "unknowing" victims of the gold carry scam) orchestrate your own little stealth plan, specifically a MASSIVE ORCHESTRATED SELL PROGRAM into the equities market before your "traitorous" partners-in-crime have a chance to figure out who is doing the selling. Just before you pull this massive sell program, you establish or prepare huge short positions in key sectors and ready your Big Media contacts to blast negative news into the markets. Then, while the equities are collapsing in a huge panic sell, you cover your shorts in the gold markets, going long at the same time, financing all of this spec from the profits you are making from huge short positions in the general equities markets.

The major variable: just how much of Mr. Mystic's gold short position is capable of being covered at a profit? If there is a loss suffered (owing to rapidly escalating gold price on the back of a GOLD PANIC BUY), then do your gains shorting general equities outweigh the gold losses? The net result might be something of a wash for Mr. Mystic...but if nothing else, you succeed in bankrupting your former "partners in crime." aka "F___king them in the ass."

It's a convoluted theory but it is compatible with his advice to buy gold in a big way and dump all non-gold related equities ASAP.

That's all I can come up with. Any ideas from anybody?
Aristotle
(03/11/1999; 20:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3248)
Richard's question
Hi Richard
Ignore the nickels. With exception of a year hear or there, nickels have pretty much always been the same...copper-nickel alloy. The '64 and older dimes, quarters, etc are the silver alloy you're after. I'm sure there is someone here about that could tell you all of the specifics.

Regarding our discussion about cash with ET, you had some additional questions. You asked if the cash would be completely out of circulation on the day the banks drawers were emptied. Yes. As soon as it was perceived to be scarce, it would be saved/stashed and effectively removed from circulation. (Just like those 1964 and older silver coins!) Checks and credit cards would be used instead.

You suggested price controls in the event of an all out spending spree. I have a tough time envisioning that doing anything beyond aggravating the situation. Anything is possible, though.

Projected sequence of events? Well, if we accept that ANYTHING is possible (in terms of Govt intervention/interference in the free market), the only way to do this is with some assumptions in place. You asked if mine and ET's view was 'ultra conservative.' I'd say the conservativism is not so much our position as it is a necessity for predictive purposes...making assumptions that consistent with current realities. If the Govt changes the rules, then all bets are off.
If left to free market operations, I would expect the following to be precipitated by Y2K preparedness operations:
**Increased demand on tangibles...things you want are no longer offered at 'sale' prices. Stores charge 'full' prices, with upward price pressures.
**Banks experience run on cash.
**Spending sprees at stores. Checks and credit cards are the only method of payment.
**Prices climb. Gold price outpaces everything else.
**Shortages of goods that are in demand. Prices rise further.
**Stock market collapses with the falling demand for stock as people seek to move into tangible goods.
**All this prior to Halloween, 1999??
I shall leave the rest to your imagination, and to predicting the variations due to Govt attempts at controlling the free choices of citizens.

I hope this is suitable fodder for additional thought. Thanks for the discussion, Richard. ---Aristotle
Goldfly
(03/11/1999; 20:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3249)
Aristotle

Hey. Sorry to be incommunicado of late as regards your posit of a future high price of gold. Life presses in, and time cannot be bought- even with the coin of our sublime realm. While I'm on the subject of time, I must say that I am amazed at the depth and breadth of the output of this assembly of Equestrian Warriors. I'll echo the question: Do you guys ever sleep?

I would like to flesh out the notion of a high price of gold. Are you aquatinted with the ANOTHER archives? I'm not sure if it was the vaunted ANOTHER or a correspondent who calculated that the price of gold should stand at about $30k. (Does anybody really think that could be in the cards?) I've seen estimates that seem more reasonable stretch from $800 to $5,000. So your $1,200 fits right in there.

What would it mean? Well I know little about economics, so I tend to see thing simply. But I'm not sure that the ordinary commodities would necessarily try to keep up. It depends on what's driving gold at the time. If it is simple dollar inflation then yes everything would rise fairly evenly. On the other hand (Hey! I'm starting to sound like a real economist!) , if it is demand driven, then gold could fly and leave the rest clucking around on the ground.

The demand? Firstly, maybe Y2K. People are starting to get the idea that dollars may not be the ultimate store of value, let alone even function this time next year. But Y2K alone would probably only get us to the $6-800 range. Second, how about calling in some gold leases? That should be good for a BIG round of short covering. Or maybe China will make good on this latest rumor and buy a huge stash of metal. Either of those, coupled with Y2K, would take it to $1200-1600 easy.

Hmmmm, ok, picture this: Now what if we got BOTH of the later factors and on top of that a whole bunch of other CB's start thinking that China is on to something good? Hmmmmmm. Maybe that post in the ANOTHER archive is not too far-fetched. Then add to that a heaping helping of dollar inflation��ho boy��.

Gold? $30K? Wow.

Now, what would this mean to the local economy? Don't know. Except I'll say again that if it were demand driven, then it could be mostly transparent to the man on the street. ("Gee, wish I'da bought me some gold!")

Ok that's it for now. Life is doing another full court press. HTH with the discussion.

GF

PS��Before I posted, I read Farfel's latest. Throw some of that in the mix too��..


SteveH
(03/11/1999; 21:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3250)
April gold still $294.40 but...
in the 10 minute chart it is already moving across from a downward trending lower bollinger, meaning up to $296 or higher from here overnight (of course this is merely a guess based on charting). Gold's channel currently is now $294.20 to $296.20.

from GATA:

Boudewijn Wegerif � "GO GATA"
Moderator GATA Forum
- - - - -
CAN THE U.S. RETURN TO A GOLD STANDARD?
By Alan Greenspan
Published in the Wall Street Journal on September 1, 1981.

The growing disillusionment with politically controlled monetary
policies has produced an increasing number of advocates for a return to
the GOLD STANDARD - including at times President Reagan (the then
President-- GO GATA).

In years past a desire to return to a monetary system based on gold was
perceived as nostalgia for an era when times were simpler, problems less
complex and the world not threatened with nuclear annihilation. But
after a decade of destabilizing inflation and economic stagnation, the
restoration of a GOLD STANDARD has become an issue that is clearly
rising on the economic policy agenda.

A commission to study the issue, with strong support from President
Reagan, is in place. The increasingly numerous proponents of a GOLD
STANDARD persuasively argue that budget deficits and large federal
borrowings would be difficult to finance under such a standard. Heavy
claims against paper dollars cause few technical problems, for the
Treasury can legally borrow as many dollars as Congress authorizes. But
with unlimited dollar conversion into gold, the ability to issue dollar
claims would be severely limited. Obviously if you cannot finance
federal deficits, you cannot create them.

Either taxes would then have to be raised and expenditures lowered. The
restrictions of gold convertibility would therefore profoundly alter the
politics of fiscal policy that have prevailed for half a century.

DISTURBED BY ALTERNATIVES

Even some of those who conclude a return to gold is infeasible remain
deeply disturbed by the current alternatives.

For example, William Fellner of the American Enterprise Institute in a
forthcoming publication remarks "...I find it difficult not to be
greatly impressed by the very large damage done to the economies of the
industrialized world... by the monetary management that has followed the
era of (gold) convertibility... It has placed the Western economies in
acute danger."

Yet even those of us who are attracted to the prospect of gold
convertibility are confronted with a seemingly impossible obstacle: the
latest claims to gold represented by the huge world overhang of fiat
currency, many dollars. The immediate problem of restoring a GOLD
STANDARD is fixing a gold price that is consistent with market forces.

Obviously if the offering price by the Treasury is too low, or
subsequently proves to be too low, heavy demand at the offering price
could quickly deplete the total U.S. government stock of gold, as well
as any gold borrowed to thwart the assault. At that point, with no
additional gold available, the U.S. would be off the GOLD STANDARD and
likely to remain off for decades.

Alternatively, if the gold price is initially set too high, or
subsequently becomes too high, the Treasury would be inundated with gold
offerings. The payments the gold drawn on the Treasury's account at the
Federal Reserve would add substantially to commercial bank reserves and
probably act, at least temporarily, to expand the money supply with all
the inflationary implications thereof.

Monetary offsets to neutralize or "earmark" gold are, of course,
possible in the short run. But as the West Germany authorities soon
learned from their past endeavors to support the dollar, there are
limits to monetary counter-measures.

The only seeming solution is for the U.S. to create a fiscal and
monetary environment which in effect makes the dollar as good as gold,
i.e., stabilizes the general price level and by inference the dollar
price of gold bullion itself. Then a modest reserve of bullion could
reduce the narrow gold price fluctuations effectively to zero, allowing
any changes in gold supply and demand to be absorbed in fluctuations in
the Treasury's inventory.

What the above suggests is that a necessary condition of returning to a
GOLD STANDARD is the financial environment which the GOLD STANDARD
itself is presumed to create. But, if we restored financial stability,
what purpose is then served by return to a GOLD STANDARD?

Certainly a gold-based monetary system will necessarily prevent fiscal
imprudence, as 20th Century history clearly demonstrates. Nonetheless,
once achieved, the discipline of the GOLD STANDARD would surely
reinforce anti-inflation policies, and make it far more difficult to
resume financial profligacy. The redemption of dollars for gold in
response to excess federal government-induced credit creation would be a
strong political signal. Even after inflation is brought under control
the extraordinary political sensitivity to inflation will remain.
Concrete actions to install a GOLD STANDARD are premature.

Nonetheless, there are certain preparatory policy actions that could
test the eventual feasibility of returning to a GOLD STANDARD, that
would have positive short-term anti-inflation benefits and little cost
if they fail. The major roadblock to restoring the GOLD STANDARD is the
problem of re-entry. With the vast quantity of dollars worldwide laying
claims to the U.S. Treasury's 264 million ounces of gold, an overnight
transition to gold convertibility would create a major discontinuity for
the U.S. financial system. But there is no need for the whole block of
current dollar obligations to become an immediate claim. Convertibility
can be instituted gradually by, in effect, creating a dual currency with
a limited issue of dollars convertible into gold. Initially they could
be deferred claims to gold, for example, five-year Treasury Notes with
interest and principal payable in grams or ounces of gold. With the
passage of time and several issues of these notes we would have a series
of "new monies" in terms of gold and eventually, demand claims on gold.

The degree of success of restoring long-term fiscal confidence will show
up clearly in the yield spreads between gold and fiat dollar obligations
of the same maturities. Full convertibility would require that the yield
spread for all maturities virtually disappear. If they do not,
convertibility will be very difficult, probably impossible, to
implement. A second advantage of gold notes is that they are likely to
reduce current budget deficits.

Treasury gold notes in today's markets could be sold at interest rates
at approximately 2% or less. In fact from today's markets one can
construct the equivalent of a 22-month gold note yielding 1%, by
arbitraging regular Treasury note yields for June 1983 maturities (17%)
and the forward delivery premiums of gold (16% annual rate) inferred
from June 1983 futures contracts. Presumably five-year note issues would
reflect a similar relationship. A Risk of Exchange Loss The exchange
risk of the Treasury gold notes, of course, is the same as that
associated with our foreign currency Treasury note series.

The U.S. Treasury has, over the years, sold significant quantities of
both German mark - and Swiss franc denominated issues, and both made and
lost money in terms of dollars as exchange rates have fluctuated. And
indeed there is a risk of exchange rate loss with gold notes. However,
unless the price of gold doubles over a five-year period (16% compounded
annually), interest payments on the gold notes in terms of dollars will
be less than conventional financing requires. The run-up to $875 per
ounce in early 1980 was surely an aberration, reflecting certain
circumstances in the Middle East which are unlikely to be repeated in
the near future. Hence, anything close to doubling of gold prices in the
next five years appears improbable. On the other hand, if gold prices
remain stable or rise moderately, the savings could be large: Each $10
billion in equivalent gold notes outstanding would, under stable gold
prices, save $1.5 billion per year in interest outlays. A possible
further side benefit of the existence of gold notes is that they could
set a standard in terms of prices and interest rates that could put
additional political pressure on the administration and Congress to move
expeditiously toward non-inflationary policies.

Gold notes could be a case of reversing Gresham's Law. Good money would
drive out bad. Those who advocate a return to a GOLD STANDARD should be
aware that returning our monetary system to gold convertibility is no
mere technical, financial restructuring. It is a basic change in our
economic processes. However, considering where the policies of the last
50 years have eventually led us, perhaps there are lessons to be learned
from our more distant GOLD STANDARD past.
The Stranger
(03/11/1999; 21:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3251)
Producer Prices Tomorrow
Well, I see where gold is down about $1.20 this evening. Perhaps it is just hesitation ahead of the PPI. The street is looking for a DROP of .1% supposedly. These forecasts come from people who have more data than I have, but honestly, with oil up 30% lately, how can this be right?

Reverend Jim, you better start praying.
YGM
(03/11/1999; 22:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3252)
@ Farfel
Your breakfast meet has one promise in it for sure. You
have one very well connected person whom you know
made a big pass in shorting Gold, then tuned those profits to tech stocks, and now he likes Gold long in a big way.
So the way I look @ it is, you got probable solid
confirmation from the "Other" side of the playing field on
what we (most) already suspect. Like the Peruvian whom
I earlier exposed @ Gold Eagle forum the trail petered out.
And I added the story to my list of positives for Gold to
move big with all our other (many) signals. We unlike the
Sacketts (La'mour) can't track a trout up a muddy stream.
But it's fun to try.-----YGM
ps. Figured it was about time I used this password & paid
a visit to your good company. Regards to all- I read here
daily to my benefit. G' Nite-
onlychild
(03/11/1999; 23:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3253)
VIP Lurkers
Say fellas, do you suppose that A.G. or other high-ups lurk this site? They might just be reading the scuttlebutt each night before they plan their next move. Wouldn't that be a hoot!
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 23:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3254)
Steve --- Richard
Spot just jumped back up to -.60, looking better now.

Richard, the propane fridge is not at the top of the wish list, but I'll check it out when I venture forth from the protection of the deep forest. Thanks for the reference.
YGM
(03/11/1999; 23:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3255)
Gold Eagle forum monitors (if I remember correctly)
25-35 hits a day from Fed. Reserve building. We're all in
the bad books I imagine. GO GATA!
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 00:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3256)
HELP -- JEFF
Looks as if board is not rolling forward to today.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 00:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3257)
OOPS -- my clock must be fast !
Good night all. TGIF !
<;-)
el St.One
(03/12/1999; 01:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3258)
Dow 10,000
Just wondering out loud; when history really does repeat it's self. How poetic it will be if 1966 is repeated. Back then the Dow poked thru 1000 (by around 1%) for the first time but could not hold there, over the next 16 years it attacked 1000 four or five times got as high as 1050 or 1060. Most of the corrections were 40 to 60%. Dow did not go thru 1000 to stay until 1982. Maybe all those 0000 are a magnet, will the polarity reverese again when the market tries to add on an extra digit?

After 1966 it took 16 years to recover and go ahead.

After 1929 it took 24 years to recover.

Question; does anyone know how many of the current Dow 30 stocks were there before 29 crash?

Also same question about 1966.

I would guess less than 50% remain from 1966 and maybe 20% from 1929.
Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3259)
(No Subject)
Aragorn III

Thank you for your thoughts - from a fellow traveler of the pages and paths many times of Middle Earth.

A great question "got wealth?" Last year I began to look at my financial positions from a different perspective and came to the conclusion that nearly all of my wealth was on paper and 1's and 0's in computers.

Up until that point I was not very concerned as I have profited from the stock market over the past 20 years and our family small business has prospered. I had believed generally from the example of Ronald Reagan that our government (president, congress, federal, state, local) actually had in mind the best interest of the American People. Well, with the beginning of the disgraceful, disgusting, and shameless leadership of the wjc era, I soon realized that none of them could give a damn about the people that make this country great.

I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth. As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

Yes, it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in.

STAND FIRM KNIGHTS � ITS TAKES COURAGE TO DO WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN!!



Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3260)
GOT WEALTH?
Aragorn III

Thank you for your thoughts - from a fellow traveler of the pages and paths many times of Middle Earth.

A great question "got wealth?" Last year I began to look at my financial positions from a different perspective and came to the conclusion that nearly all of my wealth was on paper and 1's and 0's in computers.

Up until that point I was not very concerned as I have profited from the stock market over the past 20 years and our family small business has prospered. I had believed generally from the example of Ronald Reagan that our government (president, congress, federal, state, local) actually had in mind the best interest of the American People. Well, with the beginning of the disgraceful, disgusting, and shameless leadership of the wjc era, I soon realized that none of them could give a damn about the people that make this country great.

I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth. As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

Yes, it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in.

STAND FIRM KNIGHTS � ITS TAKES COURAGE TO DO WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN!!



Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3261)
OOPS
Am still getting the hang of this posting. Had to wake up my son to show me how to cut and paste from word.
Aragorn III
(03/12/1999; 03:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3262)
Sir Voyager
"...it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in."

So, I see that it is indeed as I suspected...'Choose the soup, choose the soup!'

"I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth."

You do realize that gold is your finest liquid proxy for true wealth--defined as the very items needed for life--shelter, food, etc. This 'highly liquid proxy' that is gold means simply that gold is readlily convertible to those things of true wealth as needed. You might rightly say that in such a circumstance, the gold is spent-- as it is your money! You have a good view, Voyager!

As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

ANOTHER is a man of wisdom, indeed! And I would offer this, as borrowed from another good Knight (Sir Isaac Newton, I believe), "If I have seen farther, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants."

The view does indeed improve when here at this Round Table!
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 06:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3263)
April gold on 30 minute chart show this potential:
Current $294.80. Could go for $295.60 by NY open. If it hits $296.20 then may prove up for day in NY. I suspect a concerted effort, though, to knock gold back to below $293 for Friday or Weekly close.

How 'bout this?

Date: Fri Mar 12 1999 00:21
Shek (Boardreader) ID#290264:
BR
I, like you found this tidbit extremely interesting. Apparently its just the two of us.

Date: Thu Mar 11 1999 17:44
Shek ( Kaplan says... ) ID#290264:
"The New York Mercantile Exchange announced Thursday that it will decrease the minimum required margin for
sellers of gold, silver, and copper options. The margin will be cut to $10 per contract for gold; down from $20; to
$10 from $31 for silver; and to $10 from $25 for copper."
*** Shek, this appears extremely important to me - moreso than the China gold purchase rumor. ... BR
T. Remital
(03/12/1999; 06:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3264)
Suspect***
You need a reason to buy a the top just like you need a reason to sell at the bottom..
this is how tops and bottoms are made. I have often wondered why the good news always
appears at the top and conversly the bad news always appears at the bottom.. Who are these
people at the commerce dept. that report to us the CPI and other statistics about our
economy? Can we trust them? Lets face it, their boss has already admitted to lying to the
nation...Are we being controlled ? Is there really no inflation? I Iook forward to GATA'S
investigation ,it may reveal some interesting data...
ET
(03/12/1999; 07:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3265)
Richard
Hey Richard - you wrote;

'ET 3/7 #3059 - "If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans
that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets." [How and/or
why??]'

The question is; where does fiat get it's 'value'? When you borrow money from the bank, the banker didn't need to have the money on hand to lend you. He creates it when you agree to pay it back over time with interest. The money is created via an accounting transaction and placed in your account for your use and it's value is to you whatever you decide to do with the money; buy a car, a computer, etc. The bank holds the loan to you as an asset on their books. The money is 'backed' by the assumption that you will pay it back to the bank over time. In other words, the newly created money is an evidence of your debt to the bank and holds value as long as you can pay it back with interest. The interest is the bank's profit. Now put this one transaction with the bank into the context of all money currently in existence. All money today was created in this fashion with one party agreeing to loan money and another party agreeing to pay it back with interest.

The problem with this idea is the 'with interest' part. The interest portion was never created by the bank. How is it possible for everyone to pay back the money they borrowed if overall the money to pay the interest was never created initially? This is overcome today by bankers always creating more credit (money creation), faster than loans can be paid back (money destruction). For this system to work (the money to hold value to you as a trading medium), more and more money on balance must be created or the original loans cannot be paid back 'with interest'. The money supply on balance must always grow or borrowers will be unable to perform on their loans which gave the money it's value initially.

If y2k or any circumstance effects the borrowers ability to repay the money to the bank, what happens to the value of the money? It will decline in value relative to hard assets. You give the money it's value by agreeing to repay but if your ability to repay declines, the banks assets decline with it. If everyone that has borrowed money cannot repay, what good is any of the money? It didn't exist before everyone borrowed it, and won't exist if everyone can't pay it back. Hard assets remain regardless. The banks will attempt to seize the hard assets to replace the lost monetary assets on their balance sheets. Do you see why the banks can't really lose regardless of what happens to the value of money? This is why banking is such a great business! Maybe the subject of another thread?

You wrote;

'" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for
payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed." [This would be BAD for all
business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.]'

It is not a matter of obtaining cash. It is a matter of obtaining something in value in your transaction. If I know that borrowers are not paying back loans, why would I want to accept an evidence of their debt in trade for a hard asset? If the entire loan structure collapses, why would anyone want to accept in payment an uncollectible debt? Money today does not represent a hard asset. It represents some third party's ability to service a loan.

You wrote;

'I agree with all your thoughts for the most part but. . . . .I can't help but think we don't have a clear
picture of what's going to happen. Something is NOT right, something is NOT seen at this time and
will change your (our) thinking. . . . . IMHO. Really have enjoyed your thoughts.'

Thanks. What is not known to most is what money is and how the ability to control it is the greatest power in the world. What's not right is that the citizens gave up the power to control the value of money to a group which has used this power to their advantage. If the monetary system remains intact, bankers benefit. If the monetary system collapses, bankers benefit. What's wrong with this picture?

Here is one of my favorite quotes;

'Always pay; for first or last, you must pay your entire debt. Persons and events may stand for a time between you and justice, but it is only a postponement. You must pay at last your own debt. If you are wise, you will dread a prosperity which only loads you with more'. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

ET
YGM
(03/12/1999; 08:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3266)
Bankers Trust To Pay $63.5 Million in Fines----
If you enjoy seeing Bankers getting taken down for
illegal activities then you obviously would wish the
SAME for those responsible for Gold manipulation
thru the derivatives market. IMHO the only way to
achieve this is for EVERYONE to support GATA!
Otherwise we may never have the truth exposed
and there will be no exposure or expediency to an
end of this blatant manipulation. When Gold gets
hammered like this AM: you'll hear alot of grumbling
in the ranks but who's really trying to do anything
about it?? Bill Murphy and GATA are the only sign
of hope on the near horizon. I use the old adage---
"If You're Not Part Of The Solution- You're Part Of
The Problem"
Why not get involved & help be part of the solution-
It feels Good to fight back. GO GATA!
Regards--Ken Reser; a concerned Yukon Gold Miner.
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 09:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3267)
Today's Gold Market Report: LBMA Gold Volumes at Record Low, China Rumors
MARKET UPDATE (3/12/99): Gold gave up some of its recent gains in today's early
going. This appears to be technically oriented book adjusting in advance of the weekend.
The London Bullion Market Association reported a significant drop of about 30% in
February's daily gold turnover to a record low of 26.7 million ounces. For those of you
who like your figures in tons that amounts to just under 850 tons per day. Gold Fields
Mineral Services puts annual mine production in the neighborhood of 2000 tons per year --
all of which fairly well summarizes the importance of paper trading to this gold market. The
one, half-way intelligent remark that could be made about LBMA's newly instituted
transparency is that the mud has now become clearer. The gold carry trade, if not out-right
winding down, has at least taken on a subdued quality -- more or less operating at a low
hum, if you will. With all the talk about European gold reserves being tightly contained by
the European Central Bank perhaps we are near to finding the key that will unlock the next
bull market in gold.

While we are on the subject of the ECB, what a difference a day makes (or better put, what a
difference a finance minister makes). The euro is up in the neighborhood of 2� since Oscar
Lafontaine packed up his personal belongings and departed the offices of the German
finance ministry. This also removes the threat of International Monetary Fund gold sales
(our regrets to UK's Office of the Exchequer) for the foreseeable future. Those of you who
do not follow these gold inner rumblings closely should be advised that the British have
pushed very hard for IMF gold sales to the point that they won over the Clinton
administration on the idea. Oscar Lafontaine who favored IMF gold sales was bucking the
Bundesbank which strongly opposes IMF gold sales. Germany for years has been the major
obstacle to U.S./British designs on IMF gold. Also, this is the same Clinton administration
that did everything it could to protect American defense capabilities after learning that
Chinese intelligence had infiltrated Los Alamos bomb building facilities -- everything except
fire the spy that had stolen the nuclear secrets. We always knew that it was difficult to get
fired from a government job, and after all this is a touchy, feely Democrat administration
(ahem). Their policies with respect to the one are about as reputable and well thought out as
they are with the other -- a remarkable though somewhat flawed consistency.

Mr. Insider tells us that one unconfirmed rumor making the gold market circuit is that this
gold rally, that lost a little of its steam this morning, is related to actual physical buying for
the Chinese central bank. This is the first we've heard of any fire to go along with all that
smoke coming out of China in recent months. He also reports very strong gold demand in
India with rumors in that country about the potentiality for another devaluation of the rupee.
It was a prior devaluation in India some years back that solidified India as the largest gold
market in the world. Devaluations tend to have a dramatically positive effect on local gold
prices. He also says that everybody is talking about the Berkshire Hathaway report which
will be released tomorrow morning. Everyone wants to know what Warren Buffett is up to.

Enough rambling.......Have a nice weekend, fellow goldmeisters.

The March issue of News & Views is in the final stages of preparation. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 09:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3268)
TEST
This is a USAGOLD test.
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 09:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3269)
WOW --- FOA is BACK !!!
My prayers have been answered ! We all sit at your feet and await your comments.
<;-)
Goldfly
(03/12/1999; 09:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3270)
Wait a second, Gandalf

It says *USAGOLD* test......

Let's see what happens.

(But I hope it IS.)
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 10:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3271)
Goldfly's warning
I too can hardly believe my eyes. I shall not call the Hobbits until confirmed, as if it were a false alarm, they would cut off my long white beard. We all shall await the arrival of FOA.
<;-)
ET
(03/12/1999; 11:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3272)
Aragorn
Hey Aragorn - great post.

You wrote in part;

'I have succeeded if I do no more than have you question whether the good
stock of yesterday's soup remains in the dish served up today'.

Isn't this the truth? To understand what might be the best course in the future requires an understanding of the previous course.

You wrote in part;

'I recall a similar dialog many months ago with Yellowbird(?) wanting the answers you seek. My
advice remains the same. Invest in your self. Put your resources to work in areas over which you
have knowledge and control. You will easily find that personal assets provide expected benefits with
low risk. Only you will know what is the limit of your risk tolerance. I assume you work and think
each day, attempting to produce in excess of your daily needs. This becomes your wealth. Should
you choose to buy shares of company stock, their fate becomes your wealth's fate. If this company
is a sure thing to thrive, are you the only person with such knowledge? If information is known to
everyone, it becomes useless, as the opportunity is surely past'.

Yes, one's self is the best investment. Knowledge is wealth. It becomes easier to see ahead when one has the knowledge to choose the best perspective of the past.

You wrote in part;

'What was to be a safety
net of a nation's people, the cash savings of life's excess labor and productivity, has become the very
net to ensnare them.'

Yes - your perspective of wealth is quite different from the majority. It's been my experience that when the vast majority believe they have discovered the secret of attaining great wealth they are undoubtedly wrong. Enormous wealth is achieved by few for just this reason. When wealth is improperly defined it becomes quite difficult to gather in your hand and hold for any length of time. Today's perceived wealth could be more properly defined as being built on a foundation of sand. Without a solid foundation wealth will shift with the winds of time.

Thanks for your contributions here Aragorn. They are much appreciated.

ET
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3273)
YAWN!
On a slow Friday, with all eyes transfixed upon the possibility of DOW 10,000, or D10K, this quite bit of news is about all there is. Will keep searching...

HEADLINE: Oil Chiefs Agree To Cut Production--March 12, (AP)

Effective April 1st--Two Million Barrels per day
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990312/oil_cuts_4.html
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3274)
The unofficial SI9H settlement winners
JA, backlash and Alchemist are looking at that settlement price of 5.20 and wondering what the desicion will be.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3275)
sshhhhh...
That wasn't quite the way to spell 'quiet.'

Gather 'round good Knights! The arrows have sped from the bows and judgement is at hand!
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3276)
OOPS the settlement was finallized at $5.32 !!!
SOOOOO it looks as the Alchemist is sitting on the POT !
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3277)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Mostly Lower, But Off Session Lows

New York-March 12-FWN--Precious metals closed mostly
lower here today, although off of session lows, as
bearish Producer Price Index (PPI) data pressured gold from
the outset, sources said.
April gold futures slipped to a 3-day low of $292.40
earlier today. Market players said that gold fell on a spurt
of fund selling, likely triggered in part by this morning's
weak February PPI.
The PPI fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% due to an
unwinding of the food and energy price surges seen in
January. "It reinforces disinflationary influences," said
James Steel, analyst at Refco. Gold is typically regarded as
an inflation hedge and tends to perform well during times of
higher inflation.
Traders noted that strength in the dollar against the
yen has also started to take its toll. "A stronger dollar
was the key behind the overnight pressure," said Steel.
One trader noted that there was also disappointed
selling in gold after it failed to join the early rally in
energy prices. April crude oil climbed to a fresh 4-month
high of $15.11 in early trade on news of an agreement by the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
non-OPEC countries to cut output by more than 2 million
barrels per day.
However, the energy market rally started to run out of
steam, with April crude trimming its gains and last quoted
at $14.54, up 23 cents. "As it fell back, this was more
bearish for gold," said one trader.
However, one source said traders wanted to keep April
gold in the $290-$295 range ahead of today's COMEX options
expiration. This likely helped gold to finish up from its
daily lows.
April gold settled $2.10 lower at $293.40.
While some players suggested that April gold's jump to
a fresh 2-month high of $296.50 Thursday was "overdone,"
others described today's retreat as profit taking ahead of
the weekend after recent gains. "It's a consolidation," said
one trader.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
ANOTHER
(03/12/1999; 13:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3278)
Test
This is a USAGOLD test.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 13:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3279)
Hello again!
Mr. Michael Kosares and ALL,

Hello again! I trust all is well with you? As you know, my absence was brought about by a personal family loss that has expanded my duties. Perhaps, in a month or two I will be able to again add to your Forum! I have several communications in need of sending, but little time to forward them. The Forum has been followed by myself and others. It has truly grown!

If able I will offer a rather long discussion from myself, containing bits of Another's private Thoughts. I hope THEY will be as interesting to others as it was for me? The markets are on a designed course, indeed!

It will be sent directly to you or posted, hopefully in the next week or two? Then I will be away for several weeks.

Thanks,
FOA

Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3280)
Goldfly -- did you see that ?
Look out for the rush of the Hobbits when they hear that BOTH FOA and ANOTHER are coming back to join us at the USAGOLD FORUM !! The good news will spread like wildfire.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3281)
Bridge Gold News
Bucharest--Mar 11--National Bank of Romania Chief Economist Valentin Lazea
today confirmed that the bank was engaged in talks with Swiss bank UBS over
a loan designed to boost its hard currency reserves using around 35 tonnes
of gold as collateral. By Vladimir Rodina, Bridge News, Story .13381

Mumbai--Mar 12--Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today said the gold
deposit scheme announced in the 1999-00 (Apr-Mar) federal budget would not
enjoy amnesty as demanded by a section of non-resident Indians, United News
India reported. Bridge News, Story .13738

London--Mar 12--The London Bullion Market Association said today that
average daily cleared turnover for silver in February was up by 30%
month-on-month to an average 277.3 million ounces, but was still down
substantially from 347.8 million in February, 1998.
Meanwhile, cleared gold turnover in February fell to a record low of
26.7 million ounces, down around 30% on levels seen in both February 1998
and February 1997. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .15206

New York--Mar 11--The New York Mercantile Exchange said today that it will
decrease the minimum margin for sellers of gold, silver and copper options
at the close of business Friday. The margin will fall to $10 from $20 for
gold; to $10 from $31 for silver and to $10 from $25 for copper. By Bridge
News, Story .16942

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/12/1999; 13:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3282)
LET THE DISCUSSIONS BEGIN!
wELCOME BACK FOA!!!!!I have a long post coming up,but that can wait till I give you a mental bear hug if that's acceptable behavior in your country..............beesting
Aristotle
(03/12/1999; 14:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3283)
FOA and ANOTHER--
Welcome...back! I am eager to make your acquaintance. ---Aristotle
Goldfly
(03/12/1999; 14:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3284)
Alllll RIGHT!!!!

FOA, good to hear from you! Looking forward to hearing your take on the current situation. Hope things are going well for you.

GF
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 14:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3285)
The Contest Winners....
Come gather at this table round, my fellow knights, as this monumental week comes to a close. Lift up your goblets to drink to our winning posters. It was formidable contest indeed. One that will ring in journals of this FORUM for all time. It was Y2K we came to understand and it was Y2K that fell under the weight of our mighty charge.

On the Y2K prob...........

Would somebody please get them to stop blowing those infernal royal trumpets?...........

As I was saying....On Y2K...The winners of those increasingly valuable U.S. Silver Eagles are:

1. The illustrious Turbohawg who understands the value of tipping one now and then.....for #3101...The Nomad Approach. Why not?

2. The sturdy backlash for #3080 who knows how to blend a pleasing broth

3. Sir Peter of Asherville for a triple comprehensive reference to which all can refer both now and in the future

And NOW.... for the glitttttttttttering gold -- the one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonics of unmatched Beauty and Resilience:

On the issue of Y2K......

Puhlease.............. those trumpets....Enough...

We once again have a tie.

The gold goes to:

Sir AEL for #3056...who made the distinction for us between "hoarding" and "stockpiling" -- a greater distinction than some would imagine given international governments' predilection to blaming its problems on "hoarders."

And........Thank you, trumpeters. (Blessed silence!)

ET...who definitely remains more earthbound than his handle would imply. For lucky message #3013. There is something very valuable to the thought that "governments can panic" -- a thought worthy of the gold.

Now let's move forward to the silver predictions on this day before the great one -- Warren Buffett -- announces to the world what he has done with all that silver.

The price prediction prize goes to Alchemist who landed just 2 small coppers short of being on the money. The gold is yours my prescient friend. What say you next?

The posting prize on "the biggest surprise of the year" goes to:

Farfel on the euro. Who would have guessed one lonely finance minister could hold up an empire's progress? Is that what's really going on? A strong post -- the type to which we are becoming accustomed to from Sir Farfel.

And............

The Magician....Once again it's the euro ( I guess you know where we are coming from.) He also in his magical way took us from thinking euro vs dollar to euro vs. gold. So will the Europeans go for gold? We shall see. A very strong entry to the FORUM, Magician. We look forward to more of the same. So what now with Mr. Lafontaine out of the way?

My fellow members of this table round, this was the best contest we could have hoped for. The judging was extraordinarily difficult. Much gold and silver lamentably is going out the door to these great thinkers and posters, but you have helped us all with your insights and the expense of time to share them. No prizes ever were better earned.

To all those who did not get a prize this time, there will be other contests, other tests of our mettle (or is that metal) to which we must respond.

Remember, at the beginning of the contest, I alluded to an empty seat kept at the table -- for an absent bard and fellow knight. Well, it seems both have returned -- FOA and ANTOHER. Page, please roll up another chair. The seats are now filled and I think this contest had something to do with it.

I want to welcome all our new posters over the past few days and invite all lurkers to join in this quest for the grail of wisdom.

Salud, my fellow knights! Now with the trumpets......Sound them til your hearts are content....
Usul
(03/12/1999; 14:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3286)
FOA
Welcome back! As I read of your personal loss, my thoughts are with you.
Rare indeed are those who can stimulate the thought processes, as you and Another have done... The nature of
the thoughts you have presented are such as to stretch the
mind; to cause the reader to search within and question
what seemed previously to be more simple... this is good.
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 15:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3287)
Test
Test
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 15:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3288)
Ecuador at week's end; Bridge Gold Report
HEADLINE: Ecuador faces austerity moves, freeze on deposits--March 12, (Reuters)

An ugly, ugly situation that could happen anywhere fiat money is used
http://cnn.com/WORLD/americas/9903/12/BC-ECUADOR.reut/


NY Precious Metals Review: Apr gold slumps $2.10 on fund sales
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
The PPI fell by a larger than expected 0.4% due to an unwinding of the food
and energy price surges seen in January. "It reinforces disinflationary
influences," said James Steel, analyst at Refco. Gold is typically regarded as
an inflation hedge and tends to perform well during times of higher inflation.
Traders noted that strength in both stock and bond markets today and the
recent strength seen in the dollar against the yen in recent weeks is starting
to take its toll. "A stronger dollar was the key behind the overnight pressure,"
said Steel.
One trader noted that there was also disappointed selling in gold after it
failed to join the early rally in energy prices. NYMEX Apr crude futures climbed
to a fresh 4-month high of $15.11 per barrel in early trade on news of an
agreement by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut output by more than
2 million barrels per day.
However, the rally started to run out of steam, with Apr crude trimming its
gains and it settled up 18c at $14.49. "As it fell back, this was more bearish
for gold," a trader said.
Despite patches of weakness, traders had predicted that Apr gold would not
see heavy losses because many players wanted to keep it in the $290-295 range
ahead of today's COMEX option expiration.
While some players suggested Apr gold's jump to a fresh 2-month high of
$296.50 Thursday was "overdone," others described today's retreat as
profit-taking ahead of the weekend after recent gains. "It's a consolidation," a
trader said, noting that he "wouldn't sell at these levels."
Recent talk that one large NY trade house has been conducting extensive
buying for Chinese interests has been supporting gold, traders said.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/12/1999; 15:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3289)
About the IMF the guys that say they want to sell GOLD.
WHAT IS THE IMF!
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/what.htm

The following is a bunch of notes I gathered while viewing the above URL.
182 countries have voluntarily joined the IMF to maintain a stable system of buying & selling their currencies so that payments in foreign money can take place between countries smoothly and without delay.
The IMF lends money to members having trouble meeting financial obligations.
The IMF has no effective authority over the domestic economic policies of it's members.
The IMF is a global monitoring agency.
Each currency has a value. ???
Purchasing foreign currency is a fact of life not only for tourists,but also for importers,banks,governments etc. before they can do business abroad.
On the great depression:A widespread lack of confidence in paper money led to a demand for GOLD beyond what national Treasuries could supply. A number of nations led by the United Kingdom,were forced to abandon the Gold standard,which for years gave money a known and STABLE value.Between 1929 and 1932 prices of goods(commodities)fell by 48% worldwide,and the value of international trade fell by 63%.
The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 was the beginning of the IMF.In 1946 operations started in Washington D.C. with 39 member countries.
Membership in the IMF is by a quota arrangement.
The U.S. owns 18.25% of the total quota(wealth)in the IMF.
The U.S. has provided about $35 Billion,Palau a small island has the smallest quota about $3.8 million.
The U.S. has 18% of voting rights or 265,000 votes.
Palau has 272 votes or .002% of voting rights.
Exchange Arrangements--Gives a long explanation on how countries calculate and set their own exchange rate and value of their own money.
A member country can withdraw 25% of it's quota money in GOLD or any convertible currency..(For those of you still with me,could this be a reason the Gold rich countries[U.S.] trying to sell IMF Gold?)
An IMF member earns interest on it's quota charge slightly below market rates.
Very good explanation of S.D.R.'s go to URL.
The IMF is currently training people from all over the world in their brand of econmic policy.


COMMENT:The largest debtor nation on earth is calling the shots concerning the IMF.The U.S. is in debt over 5 trillion dollars and who is responsible for paying the debt? Answer the U.S. taxpayer.These are strong words but'sounds to me if we don't get back on a worldwide Gold system soon,all taxpayers especially those who cannot vote themselves a pay raise,are nothing more than slaves!Enough money for subsistance and the rest goes to pay off government incurred debt.


Pardon me again for all the errors in my last post,when I get excited I have a bad tendency to forget to proof read............beesting
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 16:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3290)
Congratulations to all winners of the contest...
That was a tough one and you all deserve your rewards. My coin dealer buddy told me today: Steve, you know most of the people buying from me today are middle to later age. Young people, oh there is a few, aren't really buying gold and silver. Imagine that a 30-year old stock broker has never known a bear market."

OK.

How 'bout this?

Lawson says ECB unlikely to permit gold sales
PERTH, March 11 ( Reuters ) - The new European Central Bank is
unlikely to permit national European banks to sell gold reserves
in the near future, Central Europe Trust chairman Nigel Lawson
said on Thursday. ``For the foreseeable future, the ECB is not
going to permit gold sales by the other central banks of
Euroland,'' Lawson told the Australian Gold Conference. Lawson,
a former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, said gold sales by
countries in the European Union would undermine efforts to
build-up the strength of the new European currency, the euro,
against the U.S. dollar. He estimated that national European
central banks held about 40 percent of the world's gold
reserves, compared with 25 percent in the United States. Gold
sales would strenthen the U.S. dollar's role as the world's
currency, he said. Gold bank sales prior to the launch of the ECB
last year, namely by Belgium, which sold 70 percent of its
reserves and the Netherlands, which sold 40 percent of reserves,
were timed to pre-empt ECB policy against sales, Lawson said.
``They realised that once the European Central Bank came into
being, they would no longer have the freedom to do that,'' he
said.
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 16:57:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3291)
Test
Test
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 17:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3292)
Rhinoceros
Kaplan said today, "LIFE IN THE FAST LANE, SURELY MAKES YOU LOSE YOUR MIND: On Friday the P/E ratio on the S&P 500
closed down 0.08 at 34.34. On Thursday, March 11, 1999, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 touched a new all-time intraday
high of 34.65 (at 12:41 p.m. EST) before closing up 0.29 at 34.42. By almost any measure, including the ratios of price to
book, total market capitalization to GDP, and dividend yield to bond yield, the last time any equity market was so overvalued
was in London in 1720. Future generations will look back in amazement (and anger, if they're stuck with the paper).

Be sure to read (or attend) Eugene Ionesco's fabulous play RHINOCEROS, and decide if this doesn't exactly describe the
current state of the U.S. stock market. Very brief plot summary: One person after another turns into a rhinoceros. Read it, the
wordplay is quite humorous. Even if everyone else on your block has become a rhinoceros, do not capitulate!"

For more: www.goldminingoutlook.com
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 17:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3293)
TEST
TEST TEST
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 17:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3294)
Ok, if you want to be in the group better test
test
FARFEL.
(03/12/1999; 17:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3295)
Test
Test
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 17:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3296)
OK -- all, help me with the answer to R's Question on POG = $300.
Date: Friday, March 12, 1999 1:27 PM
Subject: GREAT News
>Hail Master Chartist
>The notice of forthcoming return of FOA to the USAGOLD FORUM was received today. This is the greatest news to Goldhearts in the last few months. --- even greater than the holding of support at the XAU 60 +/- level and the recent increase of the POG (Spot the dog). This is my last invitation to you, to at least lurk at the site and join in on the education as to the truth of the markets. I could really use your teachings ! BTW, I have not yet heard you say, MAJOR BEARISH KEY REVERSAL.
< ; - )>>
Gandalf the Goldheart

From: Ryan Thomas
To: Gandalf the White
Subject: Re: GREAT News
Date: Friday, March 12, 1999 2:54 PM

Key reversal? Might be close. I see it more in the tech then SP / DJ. Won't call it until I see it / it shows.
The thing I wonder about is this. Lets just say spot takes out 300. We KNOW thats a MAJOR MAJOR line and there is going to be some viscious short covering. IF spot breaks 300, I just can NOT see the major averages going up along with gold. I think if 300 is taken out, that spells major problems. Just-my-opinion. and until it does, its speculation on EVERYONES part. Today was almost predictable re: XAU ... wouldn't you say?
About the online site. --(USAGOLD FORUM)-- I'll be very honest. I don't have time enough in a day to do what I do. We do damn near around the clock.....maybe this weekend I'll check it out and I appreciate the invite. Have a great weekend.
Thanks
R.
====
SO --- here is my request for discussion, Ye Knights of the FORUM !! Let me hear your guidance.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 17:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3297)
SteveH...
You are in esteemed company.

Is anybody else out there having posting problems? If so, please e-mail me. MK
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 17:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3298)
RE: Deciphering the Breakfast Message (Continued)
Apparently, the commercials have switched and gone NET SHORT on the gold contracts. Very interesting.

Based on standard COT theory, this development is hypothetically VERY BAD NEWS for gold investors and should embolden and give much glee to gold shorts...EXCEPT I really think this might confirm my own theory from last night. Even today, I still am agonizing over Breakfast Man's elliptical reasoning behind his adamant recommendations and I still am not sure I figured it out. But the source is unimpeachable and coming from a guy connected to the inner circle.

FWIW I think the gold shorts are being "set up" for a major betrayal from one (or several) of their own...I think the stock market is also being set up for real disaster with all this 10000 hype. Some major hedge funds and Wall Street institutions are about to get screwed (I think) by fellow members of their "cartel" although they probably have no inkling of it. I base this theory on the fact that the gold short cartel CANNOT suffer any turncoats or it collapses like a sandcastle hit by an ocean wave...and analogously, the equities bubble cannot be supported if any heretofore notable, bullish Establishment funds or institutions spin on a dime and turn notably bearish tomorrow.

That's why I think he warned me to dump all non-gold equities immediately and buy gold like crazy. At least that's IMHO.

DISCLAIMER: I am just thinking aloud and NOT guaranteeing anything. I gave that up after my previous year's incorrect Pegasus analysis. SO PLEASE take this analysis with a grain of salt. But with this latest devlopment in the COT numbers, something is up.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 20:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3299)
Will Return!
To All:
I thank everyone for the warm welcome. Unfortunately, there is very little time to communicate.
As written earlier, I will be offering a discussion and consideration of views, along with some of
Another's recent "private Thoughts". My participation with the Forum will be of a limited nature
for, yet, many more weeks. During this period I will continue to learn from those that truly create
the real market of Gold, the writers of the USAGOLD FORUM! Thanks FOA
Peter Asher
(03/12/1999; 21:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3300)
Michael
Once again, thank you for the prize and the acknowledgment of relevant content that accompanied it. As a holder of a few Apr-295s, I had hoped for a gold, to take out the sting, but alas 't were not to be. Well, a silver here, a silver there, and pretty soon it's real money.

After posting all that content I've been left in the "lurk" all week playing catch-up with the task of earning a living. Two posters this week have said "when do you guys sleep?" I was going to say, "sleep?" but actually since I became a Forum poster, I pretty much quit renting videos.

Speaking of time constraint Michael, when your contest begets this amount of discussion you are so loaded up with reading our work that we are deprived of your wise and knowing input as host and moderator, this time for a full week. (Although I've noticed one of our newer posters has appointed himself your Squire in this endeavor.)

Oh yes, about my compulsion to buy a couple of calls instead of a real eagle. Bridge news just now had two interrelated items. Keeping the contracts range bound on option expiration day, and halving the margin on selling (writing naked?) Options. That doubles the potential to create paper gold out of thin air. I mean this is tissue paper. A gold option is a contract to buy a contract to buy gold at a specified price and date, backed by a minuscule margin and the writer's credit. Now the incentive will be even greater to squeeze the POG in a tight range. In the last five months 290 calls have worked out and 295s and 300, not. When the POG finally break out and runs, these guys are going to get wiped and I will love it. The new margin game will in the end, just intensify the pain.

Well, back to work, sleep, and pondering. By the way I have found contemplating posts the best form of "Counting sheep" ever.

Peter A.
beesting
(03/12/1999; 23:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3301)
More on the IMF.
The mission of the IMF seems a noble endeavor,help undeveloped nations build modern infrastructure to catch up with the developed nations. But lets examine this a little closer.
How is this paid for? Money is lent from the IMF to the government of the receiving undeveloped nation.The undeveloped nation with the help of the IMF,contrives a method of repayment from the unsuspecting local population'some form of taxation!!!
Many people in these countries don't even know(believe it or not)what the word taxation means.
Here are some excerpts from a book I have read.I will give the URL at the end of my post:
How to Identify Legal Plunder.Quite simply.see if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them,and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong.
There is in all of us a strong disposition to believe that anything lawful is also legitimate.The belief is also widespread that many persons have erroneously held that things are"just"because law makes them so.
It is impossible to introduce into society a greater change and a greater evil than this:The conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder.This and 33 pages more can be read at:
http://www.jim.com/jamesd/bastiat.htm
The Law by Frederic Bastiat.
One more thought,why does the IMF talk about selling Gold when the price is at historically low prices?Could it be just more hype on what a relic Gold is in the present world???Maybe ANOTHER can help us with this question........beesting
backlash
(03/12/1999; 23:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3302)
Award & Sleeeep. .. . .

Michael, many thanks for the kind words and especially the 'silver'. Hardly can see how mine got up there with all the superlative posts for this past week.

JA -
Second ain't bad, but next time let's do for #1, OK?

Oh yes, for those who wonder about the sleep. With this great group, it goes around the clock I think. When one goes down for a rest there is another ready to pick up the sword and shield and continue the battle. What was that about Squires?

bl
onlychild
(03/12/1999; 23:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3303)
beesting
Could it be that the IMF is simply a tool to expand the welfare state type of enslavement to the remainder of the world? If you keep everyone barefoot and pregnant then there is not much chance of anyone offering any opposition to your tyranny.
On the subject of Y2K, I have not heard anyone mention how we might continue to communicate. Will the web work? I would like to recommend that each of you run out and buy a UPS (uninterruptable power supply) for your computer. not only will it run your system for an hour or so without AC, it will also protect your system from the dirty power of a standby generator. Mine is an ACP brand and cost about $300.
That way if the web is up you can talk.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 00:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3304)
Sleep? The sun is always shining SOMEHWHERE in the world...
Like now...G'day, mates!

On the IMF, beesting, you said,
"One more thought, why does the IMF talk about selling Gold when the price is at historically low prices? Could it be just more hype on what a relic Gold is in the present world?"

I tend to look at it in a more revealing light. The IMF sprung out of the Bretton Woods agreement that put the world on a gold standard via the American dollar. The dollar was pegged to gold and all other currency was pegged to the dollar. The IMF functioned as sort of a payments clearinghouse in this gold money world. If a nation drifted from financial propriety, the IMF took up the slack until their financial house could be set in order again. When Pres Nixon grew alarmed that America was "living off its past savings" he effectively ended the gold standard and killed the IMF's reason for being.
But, like all government entities, once created they take on a life of their own, and the IMF was not going to go quietly into the night. The bobbed, they dodged, they weaved, and they are still around...essentially a bank oowned and operated by the countries that have put money into the operating reserves. At the time, gold was the only money, so the member countries can all lay a claim to their share of the IMF Gold.
When they talk of Gold Sales, I see this as the member countries' way of cashing out of their gold-paid membership, and substituting instead paper reserves. Basically, they all want their gold back. Can you blame them?

Some members want their gold back...and the term 'sale' is the most suitable term for them to describe the swap.

Wouldn't you be clamoring for a 'sale' too? Gold is clearly becoming too important an asset to have only rightful ownership of, but no hands-on control over. Yes...they want their gold back.

Do you have yours? ---Aristotle
Aragorn III
(03/13/1999; 01:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3305)
One does not talk abroad without bringing the message home...
Bimetallism is something not yet discussed at the round table. It seems the knights have no need to trouble with such trifles. That is well.

Date: Sat Mar 13 1999 03:19
Aragorn III (goldfever) ID#257254:
Copyright � 1999 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You have said:

...and we must insist on gold
and we must insuist on
silver...

"and we must insuist on silver"--that is where you have it wrong, my gold-hearted friend...and I don't make reference to the spelling.

Bimetallism will ever be the downfall of sound money. Gresham's law, my good man; it's called Gresham's law. You see, the ratio cannot be known and maintained. Pick ONE. Gold.

You must give up silver to the industrialists if you want to "save the world". It is that simple...standing on the shoulders of giants.

got gold?
Pete
(03/13/1999; 04:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3306)
"ANOTHER"
I've been away for a while and wondered if there was any discussion regarding the untimely disappearance of ANOTHER and FOA?

Something, IMHO, had to happen to ANOTHER's scenarios that were disconcerting, ergo their sudden departure. Mike, or anyone else, any theories or plausible explanations?

Best regards Gold Bugs,

Pete
ET
(03/13/1999; 08:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3307)
USAGOLD

Thank you. This award will be treasured. It will be displayed proudly atop my monitor alongside a memento given me by my father. I'm happy you found something of interest in my ramblings. Congratulations to all for providing such an informative weekend. I'm sure we will see many more. Thanks again.

ET
ET
(03/13/1999; 08:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3308)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - I agree with your assessment of the IMF. It years ago should have been abandoned but as you point out, it is always difficult to remove a bureaucracy once in place. I would imagine you are also correct in your assumption that member countries view the IMF gold stash as rightfully theirs. Repatriation might be a better term than 'sale'. With news that the German finance minister has resigned it would come as no surprise to me to see all countries attempt to load up on gold. The entire monetary system seems in jeopardy at this time and I cannot understand why any country would prefer a promise to pay over the genuine article.

ET
turbohawg
(03/13/1999; 08:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3309)
Michael
thank you for the prize ... I look forward to hoarding my lucre. You might be interested to know that I've found a hedge to the drawback of my strategy, the drawback being: >If the worst happens and food becomes really expensive, I'm going to have no stockpile to lean on.< I could get fat.

Beesting, interesting that you mention The Law by Frederic Bastiat. I just pulled that out the other day in order to give it another read. Excellent book ... still trying to find the time to get back to it.

Like others, I'm looking forward to the thought provoking insights and comments of Another and FOA.
SteveH
(03/13/1999; 08:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3310)
Posted this to the www.stockhouse.com miq forum
Souwester: yes, note the totally desparate measure we go to to justify holding a gold stock. It seems that underlying all of the
negativity of gold are these two assupmptions or, if you will, the a priori (that which is before):

1) Gold, despite all the negativity, is still held by most Central Banks and the net sales of gold from these banks hasn't really
been significant therefore gold really is the backing of all money, even though nobody want to admit same. In other words the
action of holding gold speaks louder than the words of saying one is going to sell gold.

2) After 18 years of a bear market, enough indicators exist to tell the moderately astute amongst us that something is about to
give in the commodity precious metal market. GOLD DOESN'T MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, IT MAKES MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND ALWAYS RETURNS TO ITS INHERENT VALUE EVENTUALLY. The game is about up. We
can taste it, see it, feel it, read it, but what we haven't done is experienced that event yet (except 18 years ago).

3) (maybe there are more than two a priori)What we have witnessed for 18 years is probably the largest net accumulation of
physical gold at bargain basement prices ever seen before. The accumulators have held or brought the prices down with the
paper market that stretches beyond International boundries and therefore finds rules and regulations actual suit their purposes
than hinders. Once the grand accumulation is over and the paper market no longer can support the gold carry trade, the gig will
be up and gold will make that dramatic move that we know, we sense, we feel is coming in gold and silver.

It will certainly be interesting to look back in a few years to see how this played out and why. As only history will bear witness
to what is really ocurring now.

Finally, the more negative we become, the lower the price, the more the smart money accumlates. That is why the price is
actually holding you know (IMO) at $274-$284: because the POG is at or probably actually slightly below production cost
and any moves below this price are met with heavy buying. So in a sense we can use our negativity as a thermometer. You will
know that the timing for a turnaround is when you become so disgusted that you will actually sell or want to very badly sell your
gold stocks for your internet or other high flyer stock. If you can resist that urge (every damn time it happens -- about four
times per day -- then you may actually be ready for the move. I think the move will probably be so dramatic though that it
might just kill the gold futures trade as deliveries will increase to the point that they can't keep or meet the demand. The rules
will change (reducing margin requirements being yet another indicator) to make the game last longer but in the end there will be
too little gold to deliver to too much paper. Our hope remains and will likely be that [gold stocks]will be a beneficiary of
said game for a while for us to benefit from it.

We know, we feel, we sense, we see this as high potential, but we just don't know when. I say soon. Patience.
ET
(03/13/1999; 09:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3311)
Farfel

Hey Farfel - I've been thinking about your conversation with your friend. Do you remember a comment by ANOTHER a long while back saying that the 'cat was out of the bag' or words to that effect? It would seem there are many cats hiding in bags out there. Market manipulators can only buck the real market for short periods before being overwhelmed by supply and demand. As Aragorn pointed out, a manipulated 'sure thing' has a limited life before the majority gets wind of what is actually going on. The herd has turned and the ability of manipulators to keep the cat in the bag apparently has reached it's limits. Your friend seems to have discovered that promises to pay are not the same as gold in your hand. This 'dollar-based' monetary system seems to be on it's last legs and those in the know are making the transition to whatever is next. With his political comments he seems to imply some kind of default is at hand. The question seems to be which parties will bear the brunt of this upcoming change? If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that many promises will be monetized to the detriment of those holding fiat. Could this explain the sudden surge in real assets?

ET
beesting
(03/13/1999; 09:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3312)
BIMETALLISM
Aristotle,very good analysis on why the IMF is hinting about Gold sales.I just can't believe the timing with the price of Gold so low.Maybe GATA will uncover some additional information.Msg.3304

ARAGORN III Msg.3305 ---Bimetallism-the use of two metals(Gold and Silver) jointly as a monetary standard with both constituting legal tender at a predetermined ratio.
Websters definition-had to look it up.
It seems it worked in the past until time caught up with the predetermined ratio.The free market,and human nature have a tendency to inflate all by them selves.Example-My job is more important than your job so I deserve more,or my product is better than your product so I should charge more.Eventually the predetermined ratio is destroyed,as history shows by the price of the metals being set by the free market system ever so slowly rising.(supply and demand)If we were to get on a Bimetallism system today,with Gold and Silver allowed to float,IMHO at first it would be chaotic untill the world understood how the system worked than it would work better than our present fiat system.Gasoline prices are a good example of a price floating system in effect right now.I'm absolutely for a bimetallic system.............beesting
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 10:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3313)
Beesting's Bimetal post
I believe beesting, that Aragorn III and I could agree to your bimetal conversion only if the Au to Ag ratio was set at a fixed ratio of say 30,000 to 5. I had long ago discussed the matter of holding both gold and silver with ANOTHER, and was given somewhat the same straight answer to not waste resources until you had enough of the REAL stuff of wealth being Au !! Thanks to both Aragorn III and ANOTHER have seen the light, and my vaults now have a golden glow, rather than the silver gleam. It is much warmer now.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 10:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3314)
OOPS
That should read: I have seen the light !!!!
sorry
<;-)

Alchemist
(03/13/1999; 10:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3315)
Thanks
Thanks again everyone for all the invaluable information that is being discussed. My learning curve this past year has been very high. I am trying to get a clearer picture of the power behind the scenes, as I believe that the real power remains mostly invisible to the general media. In a book I read a while back( don't remember the title, possibly the 'Rockerfellers' by Peter Collier and David Horowitz, there was mention that a very few (something like a half dozen or so controlled about 80% of the Wall Street Companies. I think that we have all heard that most depressions are orchestrated events, to enable a greater shift of power and control to the few. My sense is that gold stood in the way of the expansion of debt that was needed to bring us closer to a one world order. Also if everything becomes electronic, there will be no need for the physical. This will also enable closer scrutiny of all transactions ( with the hype of controlling the black market economy) by the few. Various derivitives and similiar instruments created in the last while would act like feedback mechanisms to lead to a self regulating system. Therefore no need for a barbaric relic like gold. I believe this plan has failed and the powers that be ( held mostly in the banking community) are in trouble. As was discussed, the IMF had the role of trying to regulate the flow of global capital. I think that it is failing miserably. About half the money that is lent to needing countries ( either World Bank or IMF money ) shifts to the bank accounts of the controlling elite and ends up offshore.
This money is then lent back to bail out the banking elite that were in trouble to begin with. The taxpayer is then left holding the bag, with a devalued currency and debt in American $'s. The people are worse of than ever before, with there economies in total shatters. Bring in investment (global corporations) to bail us out. This type of money does not stay local to support the local economies, but further concentrates the power in the controlling elite.
My areas of interest have been mostly of a spiritual nature and to try to understand why things are in such a mess ( although perfect as they are, if one truly understands the workings of consciousness). I do think that those at the top of the global power elite believe in the need to control the affairs of the world, and they see this in a positive light for everyone. However, I think that there is also some fundamental blinders in their thinking.
A few points I have been pondering : What is the relationship between the IMF and the BIS, are they working together or is one trying to control the other?
Also, I find it interesting that both Bush and Mulroney are on the board of directors of Barrick Gold, and that Bush jr. is feeling a need to get into political power in the US. Any comments?
This has probably wandered a bit off the general forum topics. Thanks Michael for the gold coin for coming up with the closest silver price and pressure me to sit at the table rather than stay in the shadows.
By the way my price came from first looking at the general chart range the last short while and seeing a fair size hole neat the $5.30 area, Being one interested in areas of spirit (numerology) and 8 being the number of money wealth, I chose the nearest 8 (5+3 on the digits). The Chinese love to have lots of 8's associated with their lives.
AEL
(03/13/1999; 11:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3316)
Mon Deux!
Would never have expected it! My modest contribution winning the
big one! THANKS, MK! Very kind of you. I'll call you soon. 'Sides,
it is high time I started ordering some metal from you folks... :)

PS: PETER ASHER: what number is your Allignment of Data Part III?
somehow I missed that installment... could not find... (and THANKS
for these excellent writeups... keepers!)
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 11:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3317)
On Breakfast with Alfie...
The monolith cracks. The free market is not a political agenda; it is an extension of the natural order. I do not impose my will on the markets; they impose it on me. Those who feel that they can control the markets ultimately end up with a filled lesson book and an empty bank account. The gold carry trade/shorting schemes have run the channel so near the cost of gold production that they are running out of players -- and running out of time. Many are becoming impatient. LTCM was the event that exposed how vulnerable the gold carry trade really was. People want out and they can't get out. So they think they're getting screwed. No, greed got them where they are. They're stuck. They deserve what they are going to get. What Farfel's friend is telling us in my opinion is that the scramble has begun and some big players smell blood in the water....Trouble is, it's probably their own.
AEL
(03/13/1999; 11:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3318)
PSS: Thanks to all
PSS: Thanks to everyone for a great round of posts. The last week
really has had all kinds of keepers. Good stuff. I toast to you all!

PSSS: Welcome back Another/FOA!
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 12:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3319)
Feedback - ET
ET (03/12/99; 07:54:04MDT - Msg ID:3265)
ET - Thanks for your post. I found I had to read it numerous times. . deep thoughts can lead to headaches. I'll save a copy in my ABCs.

Your whole explanation on "fiat money value" leans exclusively on continued creation of debt with the issuance of credit. Is there a conspicuous event /turning point in history that can be viewed as the starting point of an 'easy credit' mentality ? I remember back in 1963, while working for a local bank, Master and VISA (not first name I don't believe) cards first came out. Others were already out, AmEx & Dinners, but this must have been a started something else going.

So . . I would rationalize your assets lean toward gold rather than paper. I believe I have a much greater position in precious metals than most, although I'm not sure that would be consistent with those that post here. Ten to twenty percent seems to be for the "less conservative" gold investor. I just cannot put all my savings in gold for fear of the limited liquidity. I often wonder what I will do once the metals hit some "higher" value. I presume there will be a time to sell and enjoy some of the rewards, but the next few years seem to have "caution" written all over them. Thanks again.
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 12:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3320)
AEL
#3116 17:56 3/12, Thanks for the compliment
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 12:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3321)
beesting an All
About, "things are"just"because law makes them so." My definitive description of democracy is "A collective Anarchy, whereby 51% of the population can hold sway over 49%; limited only by the language of the Constitution, and the degree of intelligence and integrity manifested by the judiciary in enforcing it!
Farfel
(03/13/1999; 13:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3322)
Thoughts About Michael Kosares....
Just wished to post a public "Thank You" to Michael Kosares for recognizing my thoughts on the EURO. It is a nice gesture but unnecessary. By simply provding a FREE forum in which to express such ideas, he effectively rewards us on a daily basis.

Actually, I think somebody should award him a special prize for his own compelling, original thoughts concerning the PM markets.

But, for now, I hope the continued success of USA GOLD will be a sufficient reward for all his efforts.

The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 13:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3323)
Warren Buffet
I have just read Warren Buffet's remarks in the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. He does not comment on his silver holdings beyond saying that he will not comment. He does say that he has made some changes in the more "unconventional" side of his investments, but he doesn't specify.

See: www.berkshirehathaway.com

Boy, yesterday was a turkey... PPI DOWN .4%? Who'd a thunk? One TV network reported that gasoline went up a penny a gallon last week. With oil up 30% recently, I suspect there will be a lot more than one penny to worry about next month.

Airlines did it again yesterday....their second round of increases already this year. Whoever said the gov't. figures are not to be trusted (ET?), gets my vote.

Hey, I just had a pleasant thought. If we all wind up taking a beating in gold, we can survive on our Y2K preparations. (Just KIDDING...gee whiz, give me a break).

Anyway, this horse goes into a bar and the bartender asks him, "Why the long face?"
ET
(03/13/1999; 16:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3324)
Richard

Hey Richard - yes, the whole monetary system depends on increased net credit or it will collapse. I know of no individual event which first started us down this path. This type of thing goes back to the Roman Empire. Here in the US there have been various periods where credit has gotten out of hand leading to a collapse of purchasing power of the underlying medium. If any single event triggered today's situation it would likely be the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Since that date, the citizens have incrementally handed over control of the value of their money to bankers and the government. We as well as virtually every other country in the world have abandoned the gold standard. This of course was by design.

I have always been a hard money advocate. My father encouraged me at a young age to read all the economic and political thought I could. It has certainly helped me over the years see what is actually going on. 'Watch what they do, not what they say', is an idea that has served me well.

You wrote in part;

'I often wonder what I will do
once the metals hit some "higher" value. I presume there will be a time to sell and enjoy some of the
rewards, but the next few years seem to have "caution" written all over them.'

This is where our philosophy differs. You said in an earlier observation that Aristotle and myself seem to be 'ultra-conservative' in our investments. That is likely correct when measured against today's 'investments'. You mentioned above that when metals reach a higher value, you don't know what you will do. From my point of view, the beauty of metals is they always hold the same value, it is other investments that change. So yes, I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is not only a simple strategy but a worry free strategy. The bulk of my savings are in metals for this reason. I do trade other investments but only with a small amount of my savings. I've always found trading futures to be very challanging but some would say I trade too conservatively in that arena also. So be it. I can sleep well.

Thanks for your response. I do enjoy helping others to see through some of the things around them that appear nonsensical. I've had the benefit of many great teachers. It is to them that I owe any success I may have enjoyed.

Let me also add my thanks to MK for providing such a wonderful resource and his learned comments. I think MK has Greenspan pegged to a tee. I about fell out of my chair when Al said they sell gold because of the carrying costs. Next we will undoubtedly hear Al claim they lease gold to earn a profit for the American people thus keeping our taxes low.

ET
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 16:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3325)
Nebraska Silver: The Common Sense Economics of Warren Buffett
I wrote the article below about a year ago when the first announcement filtered into the markets that Warren Buffett had made a substantial silver purchase. It was published in "Money World" and "Physician Digest" magazines. This is the raw version before the editors cleaned it up.

I've always had great respect for the Sage of Omaha. The very fact that he runs probably the most successful mutual fund in history from Omaha, Nebraska instead of New York is impressive in itself.

Today he published his Berkshire Hathaway report on the internet and said that he's not going to say anything more about his silver holdings -- a typically down-home response to what's become a problem for him with all the speculation surrounding his silver holdings.

He did however appear Tuesday night on ABC's Nightline program and had some comments on the stock market bubble. He said that he U.S. stock market had seen unprecedented increases in recent years and was in a "dangerous" period that could see stock values drop sharply.

"After a while the very act of stocks going up starts drawing in other people who get excited about the fact that their neighbor made some money ... and that's when you get into the dangerous periods," he said. "You never know (when the bubble will burst)." You know that valuations are high, by historic standard. You know that the level of speculation is high, by any historic standards, and you now that it doesn't go on forever ... but you don't know when it ends."

The above was taken from a Reuters report published this morning. I think that last quote explains why he owns silver. I strongly suspect that he owns gold as well though I doubt you would ever get an admission -- not at this point. I thought you might enjoy the article below at a time when Warren Buffett is probably on your mind.

There were some questions about why FOA and Another might return now -- perhaps it has to do with a subject near and dear to this person's heart -- OIL!

Many thanks for tall the kind comments, e-mails, phone calls etc. It is an honor to sponsor this FORUM.
________________________

When you grow up in a farm state like Nebraska, you tend to take in the culture of the land. There are good years; there are bad years. Sometimes the land gives plenty. Sometimes the hail gets you, or the river goes over its banks and floods you out, or drought burns up the crops and there's nothing you can do about it, except hope that you have enough cash put away to plant next year. Farmers tend to pray a lot. They also tend to plan a lot. The land teaches common sense. And common sense dictates hedging your bets. You learn to plan for the bad years as well as the good because if you don't, you're not farming any more.
When Warren Buffett bought 20% of the world's institutionally stored silver with 2% of his Berkshire-Hathaway fund during the second half of 1997, he was exhibiting some of that Mid-western common sense that has made him a living legend. He was simply hedging his bets. By logical extension, Buffett could have purchased all the institutionally stored silver in the world with a mere 10% of the huge Berkshire fund. There is a lesson to be learned here -- a lesson the marketplace quickly grasped. Buffett has exposed for all to see just how much liquidity there is in today's equity investment markets and how dirt cheap the precious metals really are. In one fell swoop, he put the luster back on the metals, and simultaneously called into question the stability of posted values in the equities market.
So why did he do it? If a picture's worth a thousand words the accompanying graph is worth a million. The charts are drawn in constant dollars, meaning inflation has been factored into the analysis. As you can see, the stock market rise, looks almost reasonable in constant dollar terms. Simultaneously, gold (and by proxy silver) has remained range-bound in constant dollars. A value investor like Warren Buffett sees the "overvalued" market as a "sell" and the "undervalued" market as a "buy". As a result. he has gone to undervalued silver and neutral zero coupon bonds and shunned overvalued stocks.
Next question: If Buffett is in silver, will he go to gold as well? The unconfirmed rumor is that he already has. Adding support to this conjecture, oddly enough, is a very old speech delivered in 1948 -- 50 years ago -- resurrected by The Committee for Monetary Research and Education. It is a speech that was delivered to a group of Omaha businessmen by Howard Buffett, a four-term Congressman from Nebraska and the father of Warren. Howard Buffett went to great lengths in this speech to outline the role of gold in a free economy and its function with respect to holding down government spending and borrowing.
"In a free country," said the elder Buffett, "the monetary unit rests upon a fixed foundation of gold or silver independent of the ruling politicians (and is) redeemable for a certain weight of gold, at the free option and choice of the holder of paper money. Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion."
Congress never listened to Howard Buffett, of course, and now 50 years later the son finds himself buying silver (and possibly gold) to hedge the holdings of his enormous Bershire-Hathaway mutual fund -- one of the largest in the world. The sound money advocacy of the political father was transferred to the financier son. This leads to a final question that will probably have to go unanswered for the time being. Is there something more to Warren Buffett's diversification than seeing silver undervalued and stocks overvalued? Does he see a more sinister outcome on the horizon? In mid-1998 the Europeans will introduce their new gold-backed euro to compete with the fiat dollar weighed down by over $5.5 trillion in government debt. Historically debt of that magnitude is dealt with by cranking up the printing press. Simultaneously, rumblings from across the Pacific hint at the introduction of a yen-based Asian currency system. Is the Sage of Omaha preparing for the dollar being unceremoniously dumped as the world's reserve currency? If so, it is one of great ironies of financial history that the very economic destruction the father tried to prevent politically would have to be hedged so prominently by his famous son.
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 16:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3326)
Addendum....On Another and Buffett
I was going to develop this thought further:

"There were some questions about why FOA and Another might return now -- perhaps it has to do with a subject near and dear to this person's heart -- OIL!"

I was diverted and then didn't finish before I posted.

-----

The price of oil has risen rapidly as the very psychology of survival that caused the first cartel and oil crisis in the 1970s has been resurrected. Oil is a component in the price of nearly everything. I don't know what Another is thinking about these days, but I do know that the siege mentality that gave rise to the first oil cartel is back. Saudi Arabia is near devaluing its currency. Other oil states including Mexico and Venezuela are in financial straits. Nigeria is near collapse. I could go on but there's no need.

Their best recourse is to cartellize and push up oil prices. These first successes will be motivation for stronger action in the future. I, for one, wait with great anticipation to hear what Another and Friend of Another have to say about this "new oil market."

I keep getting this feeling that we are under-going a sea change in all markets and the way markets are being viewed. The timing for their return could not have been better.

This all ties into Warren Buffett -- his comments and his hedge -- circuitously. Oil will drive up prices. In that sort of environment, interest rates start rising and you now know where I'm going with this.......the stock market, it is well known, reacts violently and negatively to rising interest rates. This stock market has lived by interest rates; it will likely die by interest rates.

Sorry for leaving all this out in the intitial post.
The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 18:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3327)
Petro Perversity
A lot of smart people seem to think that OPEC is impotent. I am not so sure. It seems to me there is a lot of difference price-wise between a world that produces 2% too much oil and a world that produces 2% too little. Surely cash-starved petroleum exporters are capable of understanding this. They have before.

Our "best and brightest" prognosticators have been saying for 18 months that Asian contagion was on its way. Some still call for a slowdown. No wonder they think the oil price increase is just a bounce. None of them saw it coming in the first place.

The beauty of all this, to those who sit at this Round Table, is that oil is by far the most pervasive element of all in the calculus of inflation. Its impact is felt in the price of virtually EVERYTHING else. Yes, that includes gold.

Yet, daily the media feed us a constant diet of "experts" who see no sign of inflation. Sometimes I think I must be dreaming.
Aragorn III
(03/13/1999; 18:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3328)
Bimetallism...and free markets
Beesting...I will address only your specific comment "I'm absolutely for a bimetallic system", and will leave the details of bimetallism to others at this most worthy of tables.
I would like to see your wish granted, beesting. Successful implementation of bimetallism speaks of ONE THING ONLY...return of grassroots-driven free markets.

The reason: There is no effective manner to affix a meaningful term of Legal Tender (e.g. Dollar or Franc) to coins of different metal when the metal in the coin defines the value. Only at the rarest of times would the free market see equivalent inherent values upon two amounts of yellow and white coins, even though the tale of Legal Tender begs that they are equivalent. Careful selection of payment in one form over the other will always present an advantage to the payer. The equivalent-value gold/silver ratio is not fixed in time, rendering an institutional monetary system inherently unstable from day one! No single price marked by a shopkeeper could consistently return equivalent values when the payment has the gold vs silver option. Gresham's law will drive the strong coin to the smelters for greater payment in the weaker coin.

An observer of a successful system of bimetallism would witness in its SUCCESS that there is no institutional Legal Tender stamped upon bimetallic coins of the realm. Coins would likely be marked by weight, and shopkeepers would post two prices--one for payment in silver, one for payment in gold. These prices would be ever fluctuating as determined by the free market.
A trip through England's monetary past clearly reveals the nightmare of institutional bimetallism.

Choose instead for institutional return to sound money, founded on gold, coupled with free markets. Then, should visitors to the free market so agree upon a price other than "coin of the realm"--say silver, paper, or polished pebbles--wonderful! Such is the flexibility of free markets.

got simplicity?
TownCrier
(03/13/1999; 19:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3329)
News you can use

HEADLINE: Indonesia closes 38 banks among key reforms--March 13 (Reuters)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990313/z.html

HEADLINE: Two top Ecuadorean banks to merge--March 12 (Reuters)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990312/bjj.html

HEADLINE: Beyond Dow 10,000 Is Uncertainty--March 13, (AP)
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990313/weekly_wal_1.html
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 20:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3330)
ET - Nice To Talk Again!
ET (3/13/99; 16:03:32MDT - Msg ID:3324)
Your input is much appreciated. I'm still new at this and mechanical engineering/documentation was my forte, not economics. I did take an accounting class six years ago at the community college and really struggled with it. Debits were sometime minus but other times were plus. The same holds true for credits, minus and plus. Not readily understood by one with 30+ years in electro-mechanical engineering and configuration management (big words for a job I truly miss and enjoyed until I got into management, but that's another story).

Re: Selling precious metals at a higher value. It seems there are a number of posts lately regarding gold vs silver ownership. Gold appears to be number ONE but I haven't read them all and now I see many posts on Buffet. I need to read today's posts before commenting. Anyhow, why I brought this up again was that I have a number of MS64 Morgans which have appreciated to the point of making a profit, and obviously will go up even more in the coming months. But. . . . I wonder wether it's time to turn my Morgans into Eagles or pre-1933's. Will the Golden Goose that we cherish so much at this round table reward one better, in the long run, than those Silver Bullets we also appreciate? Ahhh . . . that's the question I seek an answer to.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 20:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3331)
Interesting...
Aragorn III, you are either pressed for time, or else have little patience for the bimetallism discussion because you see it as similar to a childhood discussion regarding which is brighter--the sun or the moon? My guess is the latter, as you need only to defer comments until time allows. But then, your patience is certainly not in question--given the depth with which you approach many of your posts. As you have deferred the details to those others at this table, I will gladly play master of ceremonies to any that would like to take this matter further.

Our past discussion of ownership turned up some interesting thoughts. Maybe this one will too. Anyone care to weigh in on the subject? My personal thoughts on the matter support only gold as a monetary device. I too would cite history for ample support of this position, and the arguement for simplicity and 'workability' (is that a word?) can't easily be dismissed.

Housekeeping....
beesting--in today's Msg 3312 you said you couldn't believe the IMF's lousy timing of hinting at gold 'sales' at a time when the price is so low. Actually, if you can buy into my earlier proposal, the current price is of no consequence as it is simply an effort for the IMF member countries to reclaim their own gold, swapping in its place their printed currencies...'like' for 'like,' so to speak; only, at the end of the day they will each have their own gold safely IN HAND! But I do agree it sends an ugly message to a gold market that might not share my view!!

Richard, I seem to recall the first incarnations of those credit cards to be MasterCharge and BankAmericard. ---Aristotle

ET
(03/13/1999; 21:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3332)
Richard

Hey Richard - I've got a son that is studying elec/mech engineering at Kansas. He wants to work for Sprint. He's trying to pick up a summer internship over there. You math whiz guys amaze me! I'm a sales manager for a firm in Tulsa distributing trucks and parts. Economics is just interesting stuff to delve into.

I'll have to defer to MK and his cronies at CPM when it comes to coins. All I know about them is they're fun to look at. I do own both gold and silver. I do agree with Aragorn that gold is the monetary standard with silver floating about it. Here's a side note for you; 'The Wizard of Oz' was a satirical description of the debate concerning between bimetallism versus a gold standard. The debate of that day was about the banker's wish to demonitize silver leaving just a gold standard. How things have changed! Remember; 'Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Follow the yellow brick road'.

Better days, yes?

ET


AEL
(03/13/1999; 21:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3333)
silver

Whoever has not already taken in Ted Butler's views on silver really ought to do so: http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/butlerndx.html

I'd like to hear his viewpoint refuted, if anyone is up to it.

----------------------

A tidbit from Butler that reminds me of our dear (all-the-paper-will-burn) friend Another:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/butler111498.html

With the real silver long-term situation so tight as to leave you
in awe; the last thing this market needs is the largest paper short
position in history. Given the historical precedence, when the
crunch comes, paper longs will not be able to convert to physical,
as their contracts proclaim. It is just not possible. There is too
much paper and too little real metal. In the crunch, at the watering
hole, paper won't hold up. Not COMEX paper, not any paper.
Then we will learn the difference between paper silver and silver.
I can't say when this will happen; only that it will happen. In fact, I
can guarantee it will be the biggest force majeur in history.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 21:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3334)
to Richard:
Just like ET, I am no expert in coins. Have a chat with MK's people.
I tend to look at Pre-'33 and other historic coins (gold OR silver) as little works of art...little Rembrandt's, little Monet's, little da Vinci's, etc.
I do have a nice assortment of this artwork in my savings...but given the choice to have the oil and canvas made out of "oil and canvas" (silver) or "money" (gold), the decision becomes an easy one for me to make. If this perspective is useless to you, I hope it made you smile at the very least. ---Aristotle

A handy summary (because this post was so LONG)

Y2K is bad,
Gold is good,
"Little artworks" are very nice,
Go for the gold!!
ET
(03/13/1999; 21:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3335)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - the debate concerning bimetallism evolved to such a degree in it's time because so many 'common' people only held silver because gold was so 'expensive'. They feared if the bankers were allowed to decouple silver's fixed convertibility to gold, the bankers would devalue silver versus gold robbing them of their assets. I'm telling you, you have to keep your eye on these bankers. They've got all kinds of tricks up their sleeves.

I agree that gold is the better monetary standard because it is much more rare. I have no reason to believe that silver wouldn't hold a comparable relational value to gold in the long run. It's significantly more rare than copper, zinc and nickel. It's also shinier!

ET
ReverendJimBaker
(03/13/1999; 22:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3336)
Stranger angle
Recent oil price increase will really be felt in next month's eco numbers. There's no way around it. And, with an economic rebound in developing countries, oil consumption will increase. There are some good factors (add in OPEC) coming together here.

Also, as the Japanese stock market continues to offer better returns, we should see additional US Bond sales.

What's the possibility that someone with some real pocket change does some serious gold buying early into this coming week to get a bit of a squeeze (short) started. Like the oil market, once it starts rolling uphill, anti-gravity may take over.

Bake
ET
(03/13/1999; 22:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3337)
Oil

I do have some questions concerning oil and y2k. There is currently some doubt about oil producing countries ability to export come Jan 1. Apparently remediation efforts are further behind than in some of the importing countries. Some claim Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico as well as other large producers may have great difficulty bringing their oil to market. I can see this turning into a mad scramble from here on out to be one of the countries that can export. I would expect prices to rise considerably generously benefiting those that can bring oil to market. The problem however I've found with all this y2k stuff is trying to get a handle on overall demand aspects. If the world starts to tumble into a financial abyss, demand could slow considerably, leaving oil producers with a glut of product. Then couple this with a collapse of the dollar. Where does all this leave the price of oil? It looks like this market could get very volatile towards the end of the year if not much sooner.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 22:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3338)
OK --- What about my question youall ?
I shall start with restating the Question ! If POG Spot the dog goes above $300., what effect will that have on the balloon market ? One thought is that the two are not directly related and can both go up at the same time, as we have seen resently. Another thought is that if the POG is going up and the Mkts down, that the dipsters and daytraders will become enamored with the new game on the block and jump on the bandwagon, switching out of the hot internet stocks and into the mining stocks. This could really cause a boom and bust reverse of roles. Of these two possibilities, I do not choose either !! I truly believe that the dipsters will not change their ways and will go down with the ship until they have been totally sheared of their wealth. The two items, as they really are not related directly may go in the same direction and may not. The reasons why gold will increase in value is as a store of wealth and to correct the paper gold game, while the Mkts will go down because of increasing interest rates and dropping corporate profits, together with the inability of the bankers to continuously increase the debt owed by the Sheeple.
OK --- now let me heard from the brain trust of Peter A., ET, The Stranger, Aristotle, Aragorn III, and all the others !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 22:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3339)
grammatical errors are my speciality as Angrit is not my first language !
sorry -- but I think you can get the drift !!
<;-)
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 22:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3340)
I Think You're Right!
Aristotle (3/13/99; 20:56:01MDT - Msg ID:3331)
Yes, I think you're correct. MasterCharge and BankAmericard. I can still see the bank president's office with everyone in there for a little Christmas party in 1965. He announced those two cards to everyone and then we got our bonus, a $5.00 bill. What an innocent time for me.
backlash
(03/13/1999; 22:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3341)
Morgans or Gold?
Richard, may I take a small stab at your question regarding whether to hold Gold Eagles, pre-33's, or your Morgans.

With MK's indulgence (hopefully he is watching over my shoulder to make sure I understand his teachings properly), it primarily depends on what you wish to accomplish with your holdings. Should your goal be to preserve wealth, it is clear in my mind that Gold is the only option. And particularly at this point in time. This position now breaks into two venues.

The first venue for Gold is bullion Eagles. Now for the situation for holding them. Should the wonderful Govt. decide to do it, they can make you turn the Eagles in to them at whatever rate of fiat currency they might decide at the time. Worse yet, this can be done by simple Executive Order by the President of the US. As case history and setting precident, FDR did this in 1933. Further, failure to comply yielded a penalty, as I recall, of 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine. This technique has become known as confiscation. Still, bullion coins are currentlly demanding the lowest premium over the price of gold and therefore are a bit less expensive.

Unfortunately, as recently posted on this forum, the US Mint is rationing its bullion coins. Small denomination coins, (tenths, quarters, and half oz.) are on waiting lists and, I suspect, are going at higher premiums than just last month. That is if you can get them at all. Read 'News and Views' to get a more in depth idea of availability. (Better yet, call Mike)

Pre 1933 gold coins are the second venue to hold gold. Why pre-33's? FDR did not want to cause a problem he could not handle and exempted the pre-33's from the Executive Order. This issue was discussed at great length on this forum some months ago and it may be worth your while to search the archieves to find it if you want more detail. Nonetheless, it is a widely held opinion (no guarantee) that they will be exempted again (probably as collectable this time) from confiscation. However, the pre-33's are becoming scarce and starting to demand higher premiums whenever they can be found. Again, this comes from Mike and several other sources.

Now to the Morgans. Nothing wrong with holding them per se. Just realize that their value will be tied to silver, not gold. Only in the realm of collectables would they be able to give you the same level of value at a later date, and then only if someone wanted them enough to pay you a premium for them. Will they spend in the event of a breakdown? At what value? It would seem that 'junk' silver would be as good an investment if you just want something to be able to spend, 'just in case'.

Now you have a short, crash course over your question. But, so far, just the facts. What do you want to achieve? Spending money - - so called 'junk' silver would be a good item.
Not worried about confiscation, bullion coins would be great. You may want to consider other than Eagles. How about Canadian Maple Leafs, Austrian Philharmonics, or even Chinese Pandas as alternatives?

Really conservative? Pre-33's are the ones in my opinion. As I am able, I have been collecting a few and putting them in the 'ole safe deposit box. By the way (for all who are still with this post), I have only been on this gold wagon for 9 months. All you veterans at this site, please feel free to correct any portion of this post that you find to be in error.

Oh yes, Richard, I too am an engineer (mechanical) and a small businessman for 27 years. Sadly I had NO economics education much less exposure to finance, gold, or markets. As a result I feel a bit intimidated by most of the posters at this site because of my lack of economic knowledge. Yet I feel a comfort from having survived nicely in this world and look forward to continuing my quest for that knowledge at this forum. Have I learned much!

Best Wishes, bl

P.S. Another and FOA, it was at your feet that I have gained much of my understanding and I wish to thank you both very much for the teaching. This likewise holds true for the many posters at this site. My thanks to all. bl
The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 23:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3342)
A Trio of Harbingers
Three recent events worth noting:

1.The breaking of support by U.S Gov't. Bond prices.
2.Japan's officially declared reinflation policy.
And now:
3.The rotation of leadership in the U.S. stock market away from techs and into oils and other inflation beneficiaries.

____________________________________________________________

ET- Your posts are among the best in the forum. They are always informative and lucidly written. Please forgive me for taking issue with something you said to Richard.

I quote, "I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is....a worry free investment."

ET, if I had exchanged my dollars for gold at virtually any time in the last 19 years and left them there, I'd be a poorer man today. Don't get me wrong, I am a screaming Gold Bull right now. But successful investing requires a lot of study and a lot of flexibility. Any man who simply ties down his steering wheel is bound to run off the road sooner or later.
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 23:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3343)
Aristotle, Gandalf
Aristotle, #3334. Didn't some fellow named Gates just shell out $30,000,000.00 for one of those "little paint and canvas things.?

Gandalf, #3338. Which way the wind blows will depend on whether the market peaks in an exhaustion high followed by an accelerated stampede, or, a meandering "fakeout" distribution top heralded as a consolidation. The policy makers will try and orchestrate the latter, which would allow those in the know to convert to other assets.

As long as the big green economic machine keeps churning out payrolls and salaries in excess of people's break-even cost-of-living and debt service, they will invest in something! The real bubble burst will occur when the inflow dries up.

Old, old story told in stock broker training class: Client buys obscure issue on tip. Stock goes up. Says, "Buy me more." Stock goes higher. Client sells all other stocks, buys huge block. Stock soon doubles. Mortgages home and business. Buys again. Sees stock has tripled. Calls broker. Says sell me out! Broker says, "To whom?"
Aristotle
(03/14/1999; 00:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3344)
"Like a heroin addict, the U.S. economy needs continued rises in asset prices to keep moving"
Wow...I'm outta that deal! A quote that says it all, from a bleak article predicting the near-future of Australia's economy based on forcasts of the world scene. Don't take my word for it...read this, the first news I was faced with upon loggin on:
(sheesh...I'm starting to sound like our good Town Crier!)


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990314/d.html
Aristotle
(03/14/1999; 02:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3345)
Looking back at recent posts
Dang! ET, I missed you by THAT much...(holding up thumb and forefinger with a small gap between). I logged out after my post. Agreed. Gotta watch those those bankers; they are an opportunistic flexible lot, just like the IMF...or cockroaches. :)

AEL...while I was away I coaxed my silver friend onto the topic of Ted Butler's view of things, and bimetallism, too. I wish all things in life were as easy as coaxing him into a silver discussion. He has a remarkable ability to tune out all distractions at the mention of the word. He was quite familiar with the gist of Butler's arguments, and as he began to unwind his tale of silver futures between proper attention to his pint of beer and lit cigarette, I got a word or two in edgewise...mentioning bimetallism. He stopped cold. I don't know if it was the beer, or maybe a rough week, but I had to lean away because I thought he was going burst. As near as I dare quote him, he said, "What the hell are you talking about?!" I tried to frame the issue with some context, but he carried on "Do you want to talk about SILVER, or not?" Again, me with the attempt at context, and him interrupting, "Look, they don't use salt, and they don't use clamshells anymore, do they? Well, do they?!" And me being gold to the core, I changed the direction with the briefest of words, as that was all I could ever work in while he talked of silver. I said (playing devil's advocate to my personal opinion) "So you'd agree that gold is dead, then, because 'They don't use clamshells anymore.'"
Well, that sobered him up faster than the original mention of silver. He said (with expletives omitted) "That's a different deal entirely and you know it. Have you heard of Fort Knox? Look, we can talk about money for the hundredth time, OR we can talk about silver,or oil, or 'beans--I don't care. Now, do you want to talk about SILVER or what?!"

The rest was an unecessary lesson in timing being everything in the futures markets, blah blah blah as my thoughts turned to gold, not wanting to mistake the gold coin in my pocket for something else as I assembled the right change for our table's waitress.

So there you have it, folks, one big silverbug's view that silver's day AS MONEY has come and gone. I didn't dare broach the subject of a possible Y2K worst-case-scenario barter system. But having been friends for many years now, I can predict that his short-tempered answer would have been "Anything goes. Been to Russia lately?"
The Stranger
(03/14/1999; 07:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3346)
Gandalf's Question
Gandalf- The average stock traded in the U.S. is down about 15% since the broad market peaked in April, 1998. The balloon you speak of exists in some of the WEIGHTED indices only. A quick look at the advance/decline line will verify that, in recent days, it has breached even the lows set at last year's Dow Jones Industrials' bottom(about 7400). And, ironically, even with the recent surge to 9900, the new low list has exceeded the new high list on most days.

So, when you speak of "dipsters" and "sheeple", I presume you mean those who are caught up in the pursuit of that narrowing group of stocks which has continued to rise. My own sense of things is that there will always be those who mistake their own good fortune for intelligence and wind up the poorer for it.

Fortunately, I don't have to know all the answers to grow my wealth. I only have to come up with one bankable strategy at a time. The current extreme commodity price situation, coupled with the very accomodative response by the Fed, suggests a looming recovery in tangible asset prices to me. For reasons often explained by the many knights at the Round Table, gold is merely the one tangible asset that should provide the greatest leverage.

While some great collapse in the stock market may be in the offing, I would hope not. Any sudden violent distruction of paper wealth, especially in this environment of depressed commodity prices, would not help the price of gold. People who are down to their last dollars will not buy precious metals. They will buy bread.

By the way, the same liquidity which may already be starting to float commodities, also buoys the stock market. Where we can get into trouble, as Aragorn mentioned yesterday, is if that liquidity drives interest rates high enough to cause an asset shift. But such a possibility may yet be pretty remote. In the 1987 experience, the dollar steadily declined, and bond rates steadily rose, but stocks didn't collapse until the long bond crossed 10%. Today it is only 5.5%

W
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 07:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3347)
Armstrong
Armstrong "...There is little doubt that the confidence of capital has been severely shaken if not stirred. There has
come that moment when the future takes shape but the majority chose to ignore the early signals of
change. Most will wait for the bolt of lightening to strike before they are prepared to accept that the
storm has truly arrived. The undertone of the marketplace has revealed that the foundation upon which
this bull market has been based is now crumbling silently beneath the marble floors. This foundation
has been undermined ever so gradually since the Russian default and the process has now reached the
critical stage of peril...."

http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/LQ031299.HTM

ET
(03/14/1999; 08:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3348)
Gandalf

Hey Gandalf - in answer to your question. I don't know what will happen but I'd sure like to see the etrade types jump on gold stocks. Wouldn't that be fun to watch! I do agree that most will just keep on doing what they've been doing regardless of the price of gold. The idea that gold is nothing more than a commodity is pretty ingrained out there in investment land, despite Buffett's move into metals. One day investors will realize that people cannot borrow themselves into prosperity and things will change. I don't know if that will be accompanied by a low gold price or a high gold price but I would assume that any liquidity problem in paper markets should drive hard assets higher on a relative basis. When the average investor realizes that gold continues to be money and not just a commodity is when the fireworks will start. I'm not sure what would trigger this realization.

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 09:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3349)
Stranger

Hey Stranger - thanks for your kind words.

You wrote in part;

'I quote, "I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is....a worry free
investment."

ET, if I had exchanged my dollars for gold at virtually any time in the last 19 years and left them
there, I'd be a poorer man today. Don't get me wrong, I am a screaming Gold Bull right now. But
successful investing requires a lot of study and a lot of flexibility'.

Yes - over the last 20 years or so you would appear correct but I'm not sure we're both on the same page. I suppose I separate my savings into two categories; those which I intend to keep regardless of market conditions and those which I'm willing to gamble with in search of high returns in dollars. The bulk I intend to keep are in metals, land, a home and other tangible vehicles. I don't expect the utility of these to change all that much in the future, hence I hold them for their steadiness in relative value to my needs. My other savings I can speculate with in various other investments both tangible and intangible. I do believe the gold standard has never left the real market but has only left the paper market. Although it would appear the last 20 years or so I am poorer relative to the paper markets, I would contend I am the same relative to the real market. At some point, these two markets will come back into equilibrium if history is any guide. At that time, I suspect the paper market will have to reconcile to the real market, not the other way around. My savings in metals will climb in paper terms to the point where they would be fully valued to the paper market. All 'losses' over the last 20 years would be reconciled.

I guess it is a different perspective. I've never been enamored with a monetary system based on another's debt. It is a poor substitute for a system based on real accumulated capital. It requires the confidence of millions to hold it's value while hard assets require no confidence at all. They simply exist. I'm willing to bet in the long term on the sure thing that hard assets exist rather than the not so sure thing that debt is a superior investment. Whether I see this reconciliation in my lifetime is unimportant as my heirs will see it sometime in the future. As long as we are able to retain property rights in this world, I'm confident my savings will never be lost. If we are unable to retain property rights than we both lose.

You wrote in part;

'Any man who simply ties down his
steering wheel is bound to run off the road sooner or later.'

Yes - I would be careful not to chain myself to any investment which can't be seen and touched on occasion. I am happy to invest in that which exists rather than that which is popularly perceived to exist. Perceptions change over time but what exists simply exists. Like I said, I can sleep at night. I realize that most today would consider me foolish to not take advantage of the current belief that bankers and governments are capable of planning an economy for the benefit of all. I look at the track record of these attempts in the past and I'm not impressed with the long term results. 20 years or so is a very short period of time to judge their efforts. We'll see what happens.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 10:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3350)
Thanks to The Stranger and ET
Both of you have given me the outlooks needed to think of other impacts on my thoughts. I shall see a much larger picture now, and be able to discuss the subject much better that the friend was able to discuss the subjects of MONEY and silver. THAT person is able to concentrate on the trading of a commodity and not be bothered with "unimportant" extranious matters !!!
<;-)
FOA
(03/14/1999; 11:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3351)
REALITY?
Good day to all! I offer this as a means to consider the world, in perhaps a way not seen before. It makes use of private discussions with Another, taken place during my absence from world affairs. His words are clearly separate from mine. Will anyone recognize from where the title
came? Please do interpret these words as indeed, I do also interpret yours!


"ON THE FRINGE OF REALITY"

We travel through this world with our own notions of value and worth. Often giving little thought as to what part external forces play to impact our final conclusions upon these ideals. Nor do we fully understand the concepts that shape these same ideals in the minds of others.

"Another: My friend, "this game of chess" you play it well, yes? As do I. Truly, we understand the "rules of contact" concerning gold. If one player does touch his "most valuable piece", he must move it! But, in what direction will the "king of gold" or the "queen of Euros" be moved?
Each positioning, it does create different perception of "value" for opponent."

Truly, in this light we can see that our concepts of value and worth are clearly governed through the positioning of assets by political players. They move a strategic asset to the right and all other things on the board are reevaluated. To the left, a different worth is considered. Consider now, that all pieces, in this chess game of worth, hold a changing value in the minds of people in all world economies. Oil, copper, steel, currencies, they are, everyday, priced as to their usefulness not only to the owners, but also in the strategic value they hold in the eyes of our opponents. Those with whom we wish to trade! Only the King is held as the final player. When an opposing political entity posses your king in checkmate, we lose the strategic advantage to play the game. A king of gold gives the government the ability to declare this money game void
and start completely over. A move not taken lightly by the opponents.

Now consider the currencies ONLY, their daily changing worth, the value they hold in daily world trade and their value to us in our business of living life? A clear thinking person must agree with the conclusion that this is only a game. Do these paper security contracts really hold any
value for your life, except in their acceptance by others in trade? If our government moved an important chess player only one space, our native currency could lose all value to others! In such an event would this item still hold value for you?
Because the trading of paper securities (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.) have become the only avenue for world economic activity, we are all compelled to play this game of chess. Like it or not, your very net worth is every day, in play! And, as such, we all watch for the next move on the board. Each, in his own quiet way, ready to act quickly and purchase the "next paper asset" that appears to hold value in trade. That is, before our neighbor beats us to it. Think now, is this the way of the free market and the democratic order that one was brought up to expect? Your life savings, not at risk of being lost, just at risk of being reevaluated to a lower level of importance in commerce.

But people, what if? What if this game of Dollar chess was quietly, out of sight, being lost? How will you know to move before others do if you cannot see the entire board? Confidence is a strange human emotion. It is fragile beyond compare. Many confuse "confidence in ones holdings" with "confidence in our judgment of others confidence"! There is a big difference. In other words, we depend on the judgment of others to protect the maintain the value of our assets. In seeking real security, our position of wealth is safe and fair as long as we can grasp how others are valuing our holdings! Openly, in the interaction of daily markets that we see "how others value what we have", thereby instilling our own confidence. But, In doing such, we take for granted one major premise, "we can see the entire playing field and all of it's players in the same light as others see it"! It is here that we approach a truth that, paper wealth today does occupy "the very edge of reality"!

"Another: It is asked that a dollar be strong in gold? It is done. These many years gold price is lowered. Brokers stand tall and say "we bring gold down" and "our judgment be correct". They hold the mind of "young boys" in early years, yes? Know them not their work was a biding for the central banks. They will come to know "good judgment" in short time. It is asked for another knight in the game? It is done better. A powerful queen comes for our use, this new Euro. Now they ask this Euro be strong in Oil. It will be done! Need dollar continue be held strong in gold? "my friend, old trees die long deaths, but die they will if water comes not" " this rain of oil will no
longer find your Washington Oak"

Today, we have come to the "edge of reality" in believing that our paper contracts (cash included) are actually more valuable than the the THINGS we buy with them! For most individuals and national governments, our net worth is denominated in contracts of Delivery. The cash in your pocket is a receipt for the delivery of one dollar. Your stocks are contracts for a share of the profits in a company. Bonds, cash in the bank (CDs included) are contracts for delivery of future cash. The only value found in all of these securities comes from selling them to
someone else. A game that is played using the value judgment of another. Take your time and think slowly through this. The laws of supply and demand are muted by the accepted concept that "paper securities can all be converted into real things at the present price of real things". In the
end, this is the value judgment that everyone basis their holdings of paper wealth on. The Thought that, "someone else wants my paper assets because THEY can convert them into the things THEY need at today's prices". How easily would this fragile confidence be shattered if suddenly the payment for these Things required "Things in payment"? Would this not create a realignment of the value judgment of paper, worldwide?

Consider oil? Supply and demand rules the price, you say? I say, that is your value judgment based on the supply and demand of oil as seen in dollar payment. Now, see the settlement of oil trades denominated in Euros only and require a payment of things to augment dollar settlements.
Suddenly, the price of oil changes radically even as the supply and demand stays the same! Because of this and at the same time, worldwide, the judgment of the value of Things as
expressed in paper contracts will changes! In this light we find that the excess capacity of our life's work, as stored in the value of paper assets is no longer worth the Real Things it could be traded for.

Here, one confronts the Reality that during our long life, we did not create as much excess worth from our endeavors as we thought. Truly, all these years the Western economies produced no more assets than many Third World Countries! I ask you, for the future, in what world class
money will you hold the savings of a lifetime? And more importantly, will others judge it to have value? Will you continue to "trade gold to make more paper currency" or "will you trade paper assets to acquire more gold"? Most will agree, the choice will impact one's net worth for the rest of their life!

"Another: It is to say, "these westerners are not as rich as there currency say they are"!"

Some day you will read in the financial pages: "It is in the value judgment of paper assets that
people found the lies."

"Gold, yesterday, today and tomorrow"

Thank You for reading, FOA
Alchemist
(03/14/1999; 11:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3352)
Wisdom
Welcome back FOA. It is very comforting to read your thoughts again. I have seen the USA likened to a teenager in relative maturity and Europe as the wiser elder. Your thoughts make me see this in more clarity. It helps one see the current events from a much broader perspective and through the eyes of an elder. Thanks
jinx44
(03/14/1999; 14:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3353)
FOA
Greetings

I am very pleased to see you and ANOTHER back at our humble table. I hope and believe that you are here for reasons of goodness and truth. Your thoughts and suggestions are quite powerful in their rational and simple style. I find they resonate strongly in my judgement and serve to educate me profoundly. Thank you.

That being said, I would like some perspective on the euro. Your post says the euro is closer to gold in spirit and value than any other currency save specie. The revaluation of all paper in the coming (depression?) times to THINGS OF VALUE will see the $US and (all?) others fall. Fine and good. What keeps the euro so strong? I have yet to read any statement or rule that ties the ECB gold reserves to any mechanism of convertibility except the current manipulated commercial markets. The reality that I see is it is only the good intentions of Europe's� largest socialist nations that back the euro. The fact that they possess 15% (how will we know???) of reserves in gold is not necessarily proof that they will give me any of that upon demand. I need some additional convincing, please.

But I must say that I do like the idea that all nations should openly hold gold and the value of their paper currency be judged on the amount of gold it will purchase. If the $US has 450 billion paper receipts in circulation and 262 million oz of gold in the vault (450B/262M=$1717.56 per oz.) then I would get 1oz from the government for turning in 1717.56 receipts (less a seignorage fee�kind of like paying the govt for making an ounce of gold carry more easily for the period of time I chose to hold paper). Yes, I know that the US is probably 25 Trillion in debt-lets leave that for ANOTHER time.

I think I could live with that. Cross currency rates would be merely arbitrage to help insure that if a nation didn't live up to its� promises, they would pay for it in the international markets. Gold would no doubt be issued in accepted fractional amounts to provide change for the paper.

Anyway, what about the political and social situation of the nations that support the euro? Germany and France have moved further left. Democratic socialism and its' euro isn't a dream date for my precious daughter gold. What HONEST mechanism in the market will make and keep the euro 'strong in gold'? I could really use an answer. I want to be a believer, honest.

I just can't trust communists of any stripe - - national socialists, democratic socialists, fabian socialists, marxists, maoists, fascists (yes, fascism is socialism, it is NOT right wing of any kind.) I think I'll just stick to the physical, thanks.
Clint H
(03/14/1999; 14:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3354)
Backlash post 3341
There are three things you mentioned in your post that can cause loss of sleep. They are bullion, confiscate and Safe Deposit Boxes. A degree of fear is attached to each.
The definition of bullion is "without form or artistic value" or "not in coin form." Bullion coins were created as an exception, a way to trade in small amounts of gold with little fear of counterfeiting. Legal tender coins fall under all nation's counterfeiting laws. They are also made in quantities that will preclude them being rare collectibles with a high premium.

Bullion coins have a daily posted value. Should the government choose to demand our gold in exchange for paper the value is stated in the market place. The government can take your property but you must be compensated fair market value. All bullion coins have the same basic value. They have no rare collectable coin value.

Rare collectable coins each have a value based on many factors, all based on subjective evaluations. Each coin must be evaluated separately. It would be difficult to value one coin at a time and arrive at a fair price in a reluctant sellers mind. Exempt.

Should one choose to "bet their bullion" by keeping it in a bank "Safe Deposit Box" consider what happened in 1933. The President made his announcement on Friday evening after all the banks had closed. All Safe Deposit Boxes were sealed. On Monday morning no person could open their box without an IRS agent present.

The government now believes that billions of untaxed and ill-gotten dollars are hidden in Safe Deposit Boxes. All dollars or gold that can't be explained or tracked is subject to confiscation or at the least heavy taxes. A double dip for declaring a gold recall.

Is klinton capable of such a dastardly deed? If he does it, it will be on a Friday evening or a bank holiday.

Got Gold? Betting your bullion on a Safe Deposit Box?

This is trite stuff compared to the post by FOA. I will look to the Noble Knights, Another, FOA and MK for the heavy thoughts.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 14:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3355)
Alchemist - Msg ID:3352)
Thanks for reading! More of your thoughts will, in turn, help to broaden my perspective.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 14:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3356)
jinx44 - Msg ID:3353)
I do have a reply for you. Will send it shortly. Thanks
Rod Michel
(03/14/1999; 15:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3357)
Thank You Gold bears and general manipulators!
Without your illegal collusionary activities in the gold market, I would not be able to add so much bullion to my collection of hard assets! I mean, so what you cost me my job as a geologist/prospector, but that is okay as most of us miners are multi-skilled professionals who have tremendous transferable skills to real life projects. Being so young (in my mid 20's) truly this is a blessing to trade in worthless fiat for physical golds. Sounds like a win-lose situation for me! You get the debt, I get the assets. Surely you can see the humor in this where you will be totally at the mercy of the rule makers (who own the physical gold) come time for your retirement, because you have believe the BIG LIE that is being peddled about precious metals being a 'burden' to own or not a good 'investment'. Hey I am actually amazed at how cheap gold really is after inflation has been factored in!!

Special thanks to Martin Armstrong for short selling so much silver!! Isn't it great that I can own silver for around $5.50 an ounce? You gotta love Warren Buffet, he is the man! We sure do in my generation. Our only concern is with stupid parents who are gambling away our inheritances in stocks, and putting the house up as collateral, Vegas sure has elvolved in the 90's.

Well gotta run, and remember the Golden Rule "He who owns the gold, makes the rules". And also 'ye soweth, ye repeath'.

Good Day to all and good luck in buying/selling your gold.

Rod Michel
Aragorn III
(03/14/1999; 15:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3358)
Comments to many
Clint H
Your message shows the problems, and perhaps frightens many from the resolve to find gold for their lives. I do not believe this to be your intended purpose. Perhaps you could show what solution you believe rises to the challenge? You did mention old coins and the peril of banks. Is that wherein the solution is to be found?

ET
Thanks for your words of agree some days ago. It remains the more you speak, the less I need type. Thank you for the rest you afford to a weary knight!

Aristotle
You have done well to see both sides. Your intuition and understanding brings honor to this round table.

FOA
Your words are most welcome again, old friend! The fresh perspective you bring, vital for the well-being of all gathered here, is found in these most important words:

'...Many confuse "confidence in ones holdings" with "confidence in our judgment of others confidence"! There is a big difference. In other words, we depend on the judgment of others to protect the maintain the value of our assets. In seeking real security, our position of wealth is safe and fair as long as we can grasp how others are valuing our holdings!...'

As all eyes have been on the euro, and challenged to find the gold therein, the larger view of the playing field has been neglected. It might be inferred from your message that the day is at hand in which oil seeks payment in euros. Could this be an undisclosed part of the important production agreement to take effect on April 1st?
I believe our poster Jinx44 is a good example of the common question to be begged "We cannot see it...what is it that makes the euro strong as you suggest, as clearly it is weak today?"
Isn't it true that the answer lies not in the euro's capacity in gold, but rather that salvation in the Dollar might only be found in gold? The question of euro strength need not look for any merit if oil seeks euros; the justification becomes of consequence no longer! It is revealed at such a time that the "judgment of others confidence" (as you say so well) has been shifted away from the dollar, and this house of cards would likely collapse under its own weight. At such a time only gold will preserve ones liquid wealth...the value to be determined either by the free market, or by a one-time act of congress re-establishing some permutation of the gold standard.
Your future thoughts shall be most welcome!
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 16:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3359)
Question for FOA
First FOA, a very warm welcome back the MK's FORUM !! It was drab for a great period after your crisis required your departure. ALL the Goldhearts prayed for you in your efforts and hoped for your return. Previously, we were taught that after the Euro was launched, it would fall in value to the US$ as many would be converting from the "OLD safe fiat money" to the new Euro. That action we have seen to a certain degree. You advise now that the Euro will become strong in OIL. We can see that as a forthcoming possibility, and that could therefore make the Euro strong in Gold also, IF the rules of payment for oil are changed.
FINALLY --- my Question --- Do you feel that the timetable for these events will be within MY lifetime ? Thanks in advance. Gandalf the Goldheart
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/14/1999; 16:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3360)
FOA and Another....
Welcome back, my friends. It is good to hear your voices again. It has been too long.....
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 16:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3361)
Thank you Aragorn III
Your comments and questions to FOA are similar to mine and easier to understand. As we were thinking along similar lines, I beleive that you must be able to type much faster than I. We await FOA's guidance.
<;-)
FOA
(03/14/1999; 16:17:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3362)
jinx44
jinx44,
Hello! Thank you also for your consideration. Your question: What keeps the euro so strong?

The Euro has not been strong, yet. The greatest hurdle for this new currency was just crossed, it was born! Every known Western power in the dollar economic world hurled against this new competitor for the reserve currency spot. Indeed, it is alive today and will impact the future
economic landscape for the next fifty years, at least.
jinx44, we have to understand that in today's modern world, currencies are not strong on their own. They are made week or made strong through usage. All of the same questions you asked about the Euro could also be asked of the dollar? I state them again in a dollar context: no statement or rule that ties the United States gold reserves to any mechanism of convertibility except the current manipulated commercial markets. ---- it is only the good intentions of
America's largest socialist states that back the dollar. --- The fact that the US possess 0% (how will we know???) of reserves in dedicated gold is not necessarily proof that they will give me any of that upon demand. --- California and Michigan have moved further left. Democratic socialism
and its' dollar isn't a dream date for my precious daughter gold --- !!! You see, all of these apply, yet the dollar has been very strong these many years.
For a modern currency to be strong, it must be used extensively to denominate trade. Truly, that is the only value of a digital currency. But why promote a digital currency such as the dollar or the Euro? The answer lies with the modern world, it's the only way we can trade globally in an efficient manner. Then we further ask, why promote the Euro over the dollar. Ironically, the very
prospect of free world trade, so fought for by the American Administration, is the condition that the IMF/dollar system cannot handle! The debt built up from all of the past, unfree, projectionist old world trade is killing the transition. The policy is to sell free trade and the narrow margins it produces as they shut down entire economies because the low profits cannot service the old debt. Do you follow the logic and the problem? This brilliant, modern free trade system and all of it's benefits cannot be implemented using the US dollar as a reserve currency. It shuts off commerce that in turn limits the use of commodities such as oil, metals, food and the like. Many hail the low price inflation in the US as a victory and ignore the intent other nations had in following "free
trade". That being to promote a world economy, not just a US economy.
Enter the Euro! Understand that the increased use of commodities is a good thing. It's not just for the purpose of making rising chart pattern so speculators can sell their calls! Commodity usage creates real things and helps the lives of real people. When citizens gain real productive
mechanisms, they hold real wealth. Some would have you believe that third world people are enriched by saving US treasury bonds, not true! The only way to increase world trade, with an eye on building new consumers in all countries, is to remove the overhang of "dollar settlement".
The US started the free trade movement but quickly backed away when it was realized that the US currency, backed by debt through the fractional reserve system, would suffer sever inflation in the transition. Government guarantees would require the treasury (and Fed) to print unbelievable
amounts of new currency to cover the unserviceable debt that Free Trade would create! Now, Europe is going to finish the job using a new currency to supplant "dollar settlement". The ECB has agreed to allow their gold to be "marked to the market" quarterly. IN doing so, oil will slowly be transitioned to settle in Euros as the dollar is lowered in value against gold. The benefit to oil will be the increased world demand that a Euro settlement Free Trade will create. Once this train begins, everyone will jump on it. Why? Because it will benefit the largest part of the world
population. The dollar will implode and gold will soar in dollar terms.

So you see, my friend, the world is changing! The evolving gold market isn't about shorts being squeezed, or manipulation by banks or lawsuits. It's much, much bigger than that! As Another so often puts it "we watch this new gold market together, Yes?" Yes! FOA
FOA
(03/14/1999; 16:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3363)
USAGOLD!
Michael,
Thanks for the welcome. I see many Thoughts and little time. Much to read here. Will try to reply, learn and commit to others as this free time allows. FOA
TownCrier
(03/14/1999; 16:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3364)
News on Sunday?
FOCUS-U.S. pours cold water on LatAm dollarisation--March 14 (Reuters)

U.S.DepTreasSec Summers warned such countries would lose flexibility in managing their economies. Do YOU like to be managed?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990314/bi.html
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 16:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3365)
April gold not trading yet, however,...
For FOA, it is not our business but how do you know what you say is true; why do you say what you say -- this knowledge would go far in helping us to better understand your message. Why?

First, you speak as an insider. Therefore we must assume you know what you know because it is part of an agenda of which you have a part, a part unlike ours, which is to understand your thoughts. Second, to give true merit to your thoughts is on our part faith, much like religion. "Believe it for it is true." I say, "Tell us how you know it to be true. Of whose agenda do you speak and why?

Finally, when? When will the Euro surplant the dollar? As Gandalf so eloquently stated, "...in my lifetime...?" Do you have a word on timing? When will the evidence show itself that says your words are true, here is the proof to supplant what until now has been "faith."

Thoughts?
The Stranger
(03/14/1999; 16:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3366)
FOA
Greetings to one whose reputation preceeds him. I just wish I had been at this Table Round long enough to have experienced your wisdom. Maybe then I could figure out what the heck you're talking about.
Shek
(03/14/1999; 16:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3367)
Another
MK,
As the owner of this DF you require of posters their name and address. This leads me to believe that you must know Another's identity.
Can you vouch for his 24K?
Alchemist
(03/14/1999; 17:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3368)
Wisdom of the elder
FOA


Thanks for the encouragement to express my thoughts. I have many thoughts but have little practice in expressing them. My view comes mainly from the eyes of consciousness and in the understanding of collective levels of these as viewed through the collective psyche of the nation state. One views history not as a linear progression through time but more as an unfoldment of consciousness. This gets played out through the individual , the couple, the group, the village, the town, the city, the state, the nation, the groupings of nations that align through various needs, and the earth. The ego perceives itself as a separate entity; as has the current scientific and technological paradigm led us to believe in a similar separate self. When one begins to view the affairs of the world more through the eyes of spirit, one sees more clearly what gives rise to these affairs and what needs are being expressed through them
Thus, as with the individual self, there is birth ,infant, child, youth, teen, young adult, midlife, and elder. North America's recent history has seen birth, infant, child, youth and is now at the stage of teen or young adult. NA was basically born from those of European decent. A similar view can be taken with the new EURO currency. It has always been said that teens should listen more to there elders, but is not usually the case. I believe that Another looks with the eyes of an elder.
I will post this now as I have to go. There was more but I lost it somehow.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 17:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3369)
Aragorn III, Gandalf the White
Aragorn III, Gandalf the White

Again, thank you both for your welcome. This reply may also be addressed to SteveH! Yes, in both your lifetime! And do consider that I do not even know your age!

It should be obvious to all that I am not a trader. I do not think Another is either. Most of the observations given are offered to instill a path to follow for research, not to direct. Most gamblers (traders) try to find private information and act on it before it is common knowledge. Greed is the main motivation, certainly not the expansion of ones knowledge or protection of wealth. We often see people blindly follow the words of others without creating their own logical conclusions. No one will ever successfully manage their family wealth in this manner. Indeed, many have used the leverage of paper precious metals (including the white metals) to create great losses of wealth. Yet, Another has always striven to put the average citizen into physical gold as a percentage of their net worth. If you follow in the footsteps of giants, you gain proportionately as do these conservative people. My agenda is found in offering others an agenda that will hold true in a changing world.
Follow the news, think for yourself, observe the outcome of events in a different light. I think you will find this an interesting story as it unfolds. Yes, it is slow, but it holds true! The game of chess has many outcomes, but the objective is always to complete the journey with all of your
pieces (wealth) intact! FOA
FOA
(03/14/1999; 17:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3370)
Thank You all!
I hope to return in a few days.
backlash
(03/14/1999; 17:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3371)
Clint H

Reference your post #3354

It is clear to me that I did an extremely poor job of communicating my point to Richard, OR regarding his question of his post #3330.

Thank you, Clint, for having read my post #3341 trying to answer his question of whether to hold his Morgan coins or go to the "Golden Goose" for a better return. And if so, how to hold it?

My post was not meant to propel Richard to bullion coins much less to bullion itself. Specifically I tried to point out the actual dangers in doing so, but you added more good points that I failed to mention. Further, 'Safe Deposit Box' was meant to refer to a safe storage place. I, too, agree that the bank may not be the ideal place, but there are other 'Safe Deposit Places' that are available.

However, the point of my response specifically was to answer his question of what to do. In a short statement, "Richard, do whatever best suits the goal(s) that you wish to achieve." The balance of the post was primarily for informational purposes in order to the one might make an informed decision.

Clint, it appeared to me that Richard was having a bit of a problem deciding whether to stick with silver or move to gold. I hope that both your and my information was helpful to Richard. Further, Clint, what I happen to have been able to accumulate will be of little consequence should the IRS find it in my personal safe deposit box at the bank. I have records of how it came into my possession, and by legitimate means I might add. Likewise, (if you will review my post) the form of gold possession I prefer is pre-1933 gold coins. They are of varied origin, some uncirculated, and even a few are graded. All this oriented around a supposition (right or wrong) that my holdings will qualify as collectables should events as you decribed occur.

Sorry that you missed the point of my post. Next time I will endeavor to be more clear.


FOA

Your posts of the past two days have been truly enlightening. I personally enjoy the concepts that you and ANOTHER impart to us students. Concepts and understanding will always support when current events and trials obscure the real picture. Please continue, your efforts are not in vain.

bl
ET
(03/14/1999; 19:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3372)
On Friend of Another's thoughts

I hope I'm not intruding in someone else's argument but I believe Friend of Another made some excellent points. Putting this analysis into proper perspective requires keeping in mind that oil comprises the majority of all commodity trades worldwide. It is essential for virtually everything that comprises the modern world and consequently those producing it have a vested interest in receiving something in return for their product. Until just now, the only thing they were able to attain has been dollars. It must also be remembered that dollars are not redeemable for gold or any other hard asset directly. They must be disgorged to realize any real value. The problem as Friend of Another stated is the massive amount of dollars in circulation versus what backs them, namely future tax revenues from the American public. The oil producers have had to accept a promise to pay from future taxpayers as payment for a real asset today. It is hardly surprising they find this situation untenable. They have apparently decided to align themselves with the Europeans in an effort to obtain something real for their real asset. They have proposed exchanging oil for gold or it's proxy, the Euro, rather than accept the dollar.

Friend of Another's other point about it being difficult to transcend to this situation is well taken. Most transactions are handled in dollars today and the delay we've witnessed in this transition has likely been caused by the reluctance to embrace a new medium until it has been tested so to speak. There were many questions concerning it's introduction that have now been answered and apparently some level of confidence has been achieved by those that would accept it in payment.

Being we are discussing oil, whatever happens from this point forward will have huge consequences for those that depend on dollars being accepted for payment. If the world adopts a new standard of payment for oil then the dollars that are out there will be of less use in the world of commerce. There will not be near the incentive to hold them as there is today. They will decline in value versus the Euro, oil, gold and any other real asset because their only value has been as a trading medium.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'For a modern currency to be strong, it must be used extensively to denominate trade. Truly, that is
the only value of a digital currency. But why promote a digital currency such as the dollar or the
Euro? The answer lies with the modern world, it's the only way we can trade globally in an efficient
manner. Then we further ask, why promote the Euro over the dollar. Ironically, the very
prospect of free world trade, so fought for by the American Administration, is the condition that the
IMF/dollar system cannot handle! The debt built up from all of the past, unfree, projectionist old
world trade is killing the transition. The policy is to sell free trade and the narrow margins it produces
as they shut down entire economies because the low profits cannot service the old debt. Do you
follow the logic and the problem'?

Supply driven by excess dollar creation has overwhelmed demand creating a situation where some economies cannot earn enough dollars to service their dollar denominated debt. This is the main problem with a debt-backed monetary system. If it doesn't grow, it folds.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'This brilliant, modern free trade system and all of it's benefits
cannot be implemented using the US dollar as a reserve currency. It shuts off commerce that in turn
limits the use of commodities such as oil, metals, food and the like. Many hail the low price inflation
in the US as a victory and ignore the intent other nations had in following "free
trade". That being to promote a world economy, not just a US economy.
Enter the Euro! Understand that the increased use of commodities is a good thing. It's not just for the
purpose of making rising chart pattern so speculators can sell their calls! Commodity usage creates
real things and helps the lives of real people. When citizens gain real productive
mechanisms, they hold real wealth. Some would have you believe that third world people are
enriched by saving US treasury bonds, not true! The only way to increase world trade, with an eye
on building new consumers in all countries, is to remove the overhang of "dollar settlement".'

A Mises fan, I love it! Perhaps we're not finished yet!

Yes, this huge debt is looking for some kind of reconciliation. Despite attempts by the US to export this debt, they have found it impossible to do. Apparently the world has had enough and the debt will be reconciled.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'The US started the free trade movement but quickly backed away when it was realized that the US
currency, backed by debt through the fractional reserve system, would suffer sever inflation in the
transition. Government guarantees would require the treasury (and Fed) to print unbelievable
amounts of new currency to cover the unserviceable debt that Free Trade would create! Now,
Europe is going to finish the job using a new currency to supplant "dollar settlement". The ECB has
agreed to allow their gold to be "marked to the market" quarterly. IN doing so, oil will slowly be
transitioned to settle in Euros as the dollar is lowered in value against gold. The benefit to oil will be
the increased world demand that a Euro settlement Free Trade will create. Once this train begins,
everyone will jump on it. Why? Because it will benefit the largest part of the world
population. The dollar will implode and gold will soar in dollar terms.'

Yeah - that's how I see it too! The game is over for the US and it's domination of world trade through its debt currency. The key phrase above is 'marked to the market'. Don't you just love it! Free markets are making a comeback!

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 20:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3373)
Storing bullion

As to the bullion storage question it seems the best place is in a foreign bank that specializes in such storage. It is not without risk but over time has proven to be secure. Always store your bullion where the richest store theirs. You may have to fly to the bank's location to open an account but from that point forward it is a matter of wire transfers and storage instructions. This eliminates most problems with holding bullion as well as instant convertibility and transfer to whatever currency is needed at the time. It's certainly worth considering for those that desire a safe, practical method of storage.

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 20:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3374)
Shek

Hey Shek - what are you doing over here? For those that don't know, Mr. Shek is an honored poster over at csy2k. He comes up with stuff that few others see. I hope you hang out here awhile.

As far as Another and his friend go, I'm a believer in judging people by what they write. Their thoughts jive with mine as far as how the world works and their assertion that the payments system is in transition makes sense to me. The truth, like y2k, will be in the pudding. If we start to see a steady climb in gold, oil and the Euro versus the dollar we'll know. At any rate, it makes total sense to me. My only concern with the whole strategy is y2k. I'd like to see this aspect of the oil situation addressed. Over at csy2k it still seems to be indeterminate.

ET
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 20:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3375)
April gold finally ...
$292.90. Weekly shows 300 next stop. Daily shows $287.00 as the lower bollinger will rise to meet a declining price at around $287.00. So might we see a v-down to $287 then a sharp rise to $300? Awaiting the NY open...

FOA,

Thanks for responding. I note the questions you answered, the when and the why. You just left out the how but then that isn't our business anyway.

Clint H
(03/14/1999; 20:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3376)
Backlash and Aragorn lll
Backlash, you did a fine job of making your points about gold and silver. I used your post to make additional points. Thanks.
Aragorn lll, Thanks for reminding me that stating a problem without solutions is not good. There is a fear that bullion could be recalled. There is also the possibility it will not. Confiscation fears should not dissuade anyone from collecting as much bullion as possible. If it is recalled compensation will be in dollars at market value. Immediately turn the cash into other forms of gold at then market value. Not having any voids this opportunity. I believe in also accumulating as much pre 33 gold as time and funds allow. This is not advice, it's my MO.
Bank Safe Deposit Boxes are not my thing. I would rather deal with the government with gold in my possession than with a bureaucrat on why they should give it back while we come to agreement on price.
Enough on this. The Noble Knights and ANOTHER have important things to say.
Richard, Oregon
(03/14/1999; 20:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3377)
GATA
Email/website address for GATA someone? Thank you!
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 20:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3378)
GATA
http://www.gata.org/
http://www.egroups.com/list/gata/
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3379)
Richard of OR.
try www.gata.org
Chok dee krup
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3380)
senility arrives
Sorry Richard, that was for Steve !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3381)
WOW -- Steve, you are the fastest draw in the West !
OR I am the slowest typist !
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/14/1999; 22:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3382)
Tickets please
Just wanted to remind everyone that tomorrow is a historic "preview of coming attractions" possibly playing next January at a theater near you. The Ecuador banks reopen after a week's shutdown and it should be "interesting times."
Voyager
(03/14/1999; 23:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3383)
Catching up on three days of forum
Question:
If gold coins were confiscated in 1933, and pre 33's were
exempted, what coins were confiscated?
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 01:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3384)
April gold now...
$292.60.
el St.One
(03/15/1999; 02:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3385)
FOA / ANOTHER
I also welcome you back. I appreciate your postings now more than ever. Now I am back to reading your post two or three times, hoping that I am not missing something, or reading something that is not there. I have been a beleiver for a long time, but it is great to have you reenforce my thinking. The sand in the timing glass is running low.

Again: Welcome back you both were missed el
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 03:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3386)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
It is requested that you direct your attention to the latest arrival at USAGOLD's The Gilded Opinion:

"The Equity Culture Revisited" as described by The Elliott Wave Theorist -- March 5, 1999

A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is presented that may frighten even the most intrepid of knights! Suggest you visit in pairs or small groups.

Please follow the links from the USAGOLD HomePage, or find it directly at:
http://www.usagold.com/EquityCultureEWT.html
Silver Tongue
(03/15/1999; 05:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3387)
Question re: Gold
I hope that someone can answer this question. I've read numerous sources stating to the effect that gold coins are selling like hotcakes in the USA and that coin dealers cannot keep up on the demand. On the other side of the coin (so to speak) we have the gold market breaking our hearts like it did Friday and probably will do today. If gold is dropping globally in price, how is it that gold coins increase in price and premium. It seems that one ought to track the other unless I am missing something. I'm not talking about collectibles, I'm talking about plain old bullion coins. It seems, as well, that with oil prices apparently turning around (due at least partially to the agreement to curtail production and distribution) that this would have the effect of sending gold prices north rather than south.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 06:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3388)
April gold tracking down lower
bollinger. Now $291.60. Arggh!
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 06:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3389)
Silver tongue.
Reason gold and silver coins are doing well is because they represent the true shortage of physical AND Y2K buying has excerbated the US mints ability to keep up demand. They have allocated coins out for reportedly six months. Subsequently coin dealers have very few 1/10th ounce gold Eagles and very few Silver US Eagles. Other coins are experiencing similar shortages although Canadian mint hasn't made any similar allocation announcements.

Reason paper gold is going down is because the commercial traders have gone net short in a matter of two days from what was a net long position. Some feel this could only happen from pure manipulation and price fixing. Others say that there is a large short position of 8,000 tons which is three years production and speculators will do anything to hold gold below $297.00.

Also, sell rules for margin calls were loosened by 50% thus making it easier to sell gold short, from 20% to 10%.

Free market will win eventually but it is very disheartening to be a gold stock investor and watch these paper games transpire with no impunity.

Y2K though may be the straw to be break the gold camels back, as physical demand may actually stress the system in a way it doesn't expect.
sadus
(03/15/1999; 07:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3390)
What was confiscated?
Voyager asks: If gold coins were confiscated in 1933, and pre 33's were exempted, what coins were confiscated?
~~~~~~

As Ayn Rand might say, it's time to rethink your assumptions. Pre-33 coins are EXACTLY what they *did* confiscate. The assumption these days is that those coins will not be confiscated this time around because they are now "numismatic." However, there are no guarantees.
Here is my opinion: Once the government (through executive order no less!) has made the decision to confiscate your property, all bets are off. You are now playing a guessing game of: "Will they confiscate this? Or will they confiscate that?" Not a very fun game! One thing for sure is that it demonstrates a lack of respect for property rights, and thus nothing can be "legally safe." Which means you want to store your wealth in such a fashion that it is untraceable and unconfiscatable. I've read that some 40% of the gold in 1933 was buried in backyards across the country, and never turned in.
There is one reason for optimism: in 1933, the population actually *had* gold, which gave the government an incentive to confiscate it. This time around, the government already has it all... except for a few goldbugs here and there. Confiscating gold could add a lot to the panic without much of a payoff in return.
Still, if you trust the banks or government to hold your gold for you, you will probably get what you deserve. A fool and his money are soon parted!
The moral of the story is that if you are paying 20% extra for your coins in order to get "pre-33" coins, that's a lot of money down the drain for what is a questionable benefit. Why not buy bullion, and get an extra 20%? You are probably going to have to hide it well anyway. Of COURSE the coin dealers will encourage you to buy something with a high premium...

USAGOLD
(03/15/1999; 09:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3391)
Today's Gold Market Report: Beware the Ides of March!
MARKET UPDATE (3/15/99): Beware the Ides of March! Gold continued its southerly
trek this morning in what most commentators are calling a "consolidation." For the most
part, the slide of the past two days is probably associated with the options expiry on Friday.
It seems that the funds and gold bears in general are re-establishing their short positions
today. There was a report on Friday out of Bridge News that "one large NY trade house has
been conducting extensive buying for Chinese interests." You will recall that it was reported
here last week that Morgan Stanley was a featured buyer of yellow metal last week during
the uptrending sessions, there was much speculation as to whom it was representing. We
still cannot be certain but this is at least intriguing.

Volumes were light overseas with reports of some producer selling in Asia and sympathetic
liquidations associated with the Berkshire Hathaway report on Saturday in which the fund
chose not to shed any light whatsoever on its silver holdings -- buy, sell, hold or lease. The
anti-gold set saw this as an opportunity to trash silver and gold, pile-on as sellers and run
both markets lower. Beware the Ides of March.

There were also incomplete reports circulating this morning that French president Chirac was
in favor of IMF gold sales as part of package to extend debt relief to developing countries.
On a positive note, the Lafonaine-less German Finance Ministry -- in what has to one of its
first acts under its newly appointed minister -- said Monday, according to Reuters this
morning -- that "Bonn supported international debt writeoffs for poorer countries, but would
only back sales of IMF gold with the approval of the Bundesbank.

All in all, its a mixed bag and to this observer none of these factors will be enough to change
the upward gold trend. However, we might want to prepare for the possibility of a few days
of downtrending. We tend to go along with this observation found in FWN's midsession
report: "The trend has been down anyway," said one dealer. "Then people didn't get any
positive news. I think it pulled back any buyers. There were some buyers in the market last
week. But now they know there is no favorable news and there is selling. I think buyers are
pulling back, realizing they're probably going to get better levels at which to buy it."

A couple Y2K asides: First, an ABC News poll released this morning says that one in three
Americans are taking steps to prepare for the year 2000 problem. 10% expect serious
disruptions in their lives. 45% "expect Y2K to cause some economic problems in this
country" and 22% expect them to be serious. 38% expect social disruptions. Second, what if
the greatest stock market mania in history were to be ended by a computer bug? Well, that's
just what could happen today if the DOW should poke through the 10,000 barrier. Computer
experts are warning that the 10,000 glee could all come crashing down if the computers
cannot handle the new number or if rogue buy/sell programs are triggered, according to just
weekend Reuters story. We run into the rapidly growing fear of the number 9999 once again
-- a number which many programs designed into systems an period to end a line of code. "If
the Dow Jones closes at 10,102," Reuters says, "some computers could read this as 102 or
1,010. This has the potential to either freeze systems or trigger automatic sell programs."

Beware the Ides of March!

The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 09:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3392)
Good information abounds at the Round Table!
Great weekend everyone! I will have to make extensive use of this weekend's archives. Pass the torch!

A quick comment for SteveH who said:
"Free market will win eventually..." [Right you are!] "...but it is very disheartening to be a gold stock investor and watch these paper games transpire with no impunity."
Right you are, again. A prolonged period like this (we are now into our second year at these price levels for gold) has the potential to bankrupt mining companies. This completely kills any chance of buying low and selling high. But this period of time is a blessing for the accumulation of gold metal instead of stock. The metal won't spoil or go bankrupt. It will still be standing when its price take the dramatic move upward that we all know is in the cards. Plus, accumulating gold has the added benefit of supporting the gold stocks than anyone might be unfortunate enough to have, hoping almost beyond hope that the company might hang on long enough to see the other side of this. And indeed some have already failed, while my metal remains the very picture of health (and wealth!)

You added:
"Y2K though may be the straw to be break the gold camels back, as physical demand may actually stress the system in a way it doesn't expect."

So true! And if the paper traders continue to turn a blind eye to the reality of the physical accumulation, we might expect to see the spot price of gold remain at $290 while the premium per one-ounce coin approaches that same amount, effectively doubling the REAL price of gold before year's end. From the figures I've seen, demand is truly incredible...unprecedented. I have had remote acquintances call me, from whom I've not heard in years, asking me how to go about getting some gold. Something is afoot, and it is larger than all of us. The fact that the price reflects the paper trader's faulty perceptions rather than reflecting the physical offtake is a gift to all of us that see the bigger view. Enjoy the show! ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 10:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3393)
can you say MANIPULATION ?
Please note that the $PREM.X today started out at over ten times higher levels than was see late last week. This as pushed the DOW and S&P toward the "magic" ? levels that the media wishes to see. BUT all is not looking well as the market as a whole, looks to be off from its last Friday close. XAU is holding the 62+ level while SPOT the dog is seeing some shorts try the same old game. This may be one of the last opportunities for "cheap" Au, and I shall not pass it up today. Et tu Goldfly ? BTW, this last weekend postings were "KEEPERS" -- is it not GREAT to have FOA back at the ROUNDTABLE !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 11:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3394)
APR Au ***GC9J
Just hit low of 288.5 at about 1PM NY time !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 11:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3395)
Well Steve -- Was that what you were looking for ?
Someone really dumped a load on Spot the dog and the GC9J April gold contract, BUT the "V bottom" appears to be formed as the recovery is taking place with HEAVY volumes !! What next Steve --- the 300 level today ?
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 12:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3396)
We Have Splashdown!
If, at first, you don't succeed...
JA
(03/15/1999; 13:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3397)
Backlash
It turns out we were real close on our price of March Silver we were just a trading day early. March Silver closed today at 511.30 But they say being close only counts in horseshoes and atomic bombs.

My experience trading commodities has been much the same, I can come pretty close to figuring the price, it's the time part that is difficult.

And so it is with Gold most at this site understand that it is undervalued, so the question is when will it be valued correctly? And what will cause it to be valued correctly?
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 13:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3398)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold, Silver Close Sharply Lower

New York-March 15-FWN--Comments from European officials
about potential International Monetary Fund (IMF) sales
of gold sent the yellow metal sharply lower here today,
sources said. Sell stops contributed to the losses.
Meanwhile, silver declined on apparent disappointment
that an annual report by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
did not give any clues on what happened to its position in
the silver market.
Also contributing to the softness in both markets was
some of the Commitments of Traders (COT) data Friday,
analysts said.
Platinum followed gold and silver lower, but is also in
a technical downtrend, contacts said.
April gold fell $5.80 to settle at $287.60.
Technically, the market turned lower after it was
unable to push upward through major resistance of $296.50
Thursday, said Dave Meger, metals analyst with Alaron
Trading.
"From that fall, the market never really recovered," he
continued. "We had a weak close Friday when we couldn't push
through there. And you're seeing continuation of that
today."
Also contributing to the downward move, Meger noted as
well as a number of traders earlier today, were overnight
comments about the IMF.
French President Jacques Chirac said there must be a
solution for the debt problem of poorer countries, "even if
that means selling off a part of the IMF's gold reserves."
He made his remarks at the annual meeting of the Inter-
American Development Bank in Paris.
In addition, Germany's finance ministry indicated it
would also favor such a plan, provided it had the support of
the country's central bank, the Bundesbank. This is
significant, Meger pointed out, because for a long time
Germany either was "on the sidelines" or else had been a
proponent of holding onto gold.
Sources commented that the issue of IMF sales, as well
as central bank sales, has been in the market for a long
time. "But every time they rehash that, it seems to have
some type of effect on this market," said Meger.
Along with this, Meger pointed out that Friday's COT
data showed that the category which includes funds added to
its net short position.
He added that the events weighing on gold today came in
the aftermath of a soft U.S. Producer Price Index report
that came out Friday.
Sources also noted stop-loss selling occurred as the
gold market slid today.
Meger put initial support for April gold at $286.50,
then $285 and $282. Resistance was put at $290 and
$291.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 13:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3399)
Grrrrrrrrrr...
I sure wish that days like this would coincide with my paydays! Who wants to bet that we see $305 when I settle my accounts at month's end? Grrrrrrrrrrr... ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 13:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3400)
Bridge Gold News
Moscow--Mar 12--The Central Bank of Russia is selling off all its palladium
reserves and plans no further purchases of the metal because its stocks are
not included in the forex/gold reserves, a senior CBR official said today.
"This is why we need no long-term export quotas," he said, denying media
reports the bank failed to receive a 10-year export quota for the metal.
By Sergei Padalko and Oleg Kirsanov, Bridge News, Story .15454

NY Precious Metals Review: May silver dn 3.9%, Apr gold dn 2%

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 15--COMEX gold and silver futures both slumped today, both
falling in waves of selling which culminated in lows made towards the end of the
session. May silver settled down 21.2c or 3.9% at $5.098 per ounce after
dropping to a 2 1/2-month low of $5.08, while Apr gold settled down $5.8 or 2%
at $287.60 per ounce after hitting a 2-week low of $287. The selloff was
triggered in silver, after Berkshire Hathaway's annual report, released
Saturday, disappointed some market players when it failed to provide any new
information on the company's silver positions.

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 14:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3401)
Notice that they are not parting with gold. Settlement is in cash.
HEADLINE: Spain, Austria to contribute to Nazi gold fund--March 15 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990315/5i.html
canamami
(03/15/1999; 14:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3402)
Day of Agony
Gold has been hammered mercilessly today, notwithstanding that the yen has appreciated considerably against the U.S. dollar (usually a good omen for the POG). The bottom line: the POG (denominated in $U.S.) just cannot seem to appreciate, no matter what. Nothing - not the introduction of the Euro, nor the market and currency volatility of the past year, nor the once much vaunted speculative short position - seems to be able to launch the gold rally. In the past two years, all these goldbugs' hoped-for "messiahs" have proven to be charlatans. If one views all paper and digital currency as passing ephemera, and gold as the only true money, the weakness in the POG is not a that serious a matter. However, if one is an investor in gold stocks, today is a stressful and dispiriting day. To modify Lincoln, "Will this pass?"

Any insights on what caused this awful day?
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 14:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3403)
canamami
In answer to your question, Somebody tried to prove something. The knights will kindly thank them and proceed to hand them their own head.

In the meanwhile, my condolences to those holding predominantly gold stocks. They have suffered far more acutely than all those with predominantly gold inventories.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 14:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3404)
Something Smells Rotten in Denmark...RE: GOLD & SILVER.
The enormous drop in gold and silver prices on the basis of NO NEWS and the sudden reversal in the COT strikes me as having the appearance of a potential set-up...however, NOT a set-up for gold long investors but rather a set-up for gold shorts.

The metals prices' radical price drop along with major analysts declaring the absolute certainty that DOW will reach 10000 this week smells fishy...again, a set-up??

Once again, I believe "Breakfast Man's" parable suggesting that members of the Wall Street inner circle are about to break ranks and screw over other members of the same inner circle is seeming more and more viable.

Meanwhile, I sit on the sidelines...no matter what way the wind blows, unfortunately, I will miss out as I am not taking a position one way or another yet.

However, I am watching developments with keen academic interest.
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 14:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3405)
Bridge Gold Report
Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch said the COMEX gold and silver continued to follow
recent patterns seen after option expirations by selling off today even though
Friday's option expired with "no fireworks."
Gold was hurt by silver's weakness, along with the general rout seen across
the commodities complex, which pushed the Bridge Commodities Research Bureau
index down to its lowest level since Mar 5. Apr gold's decline was attributed by
some to follow-through selling after Friday's $2.10 slide. Profit-taking ensued
Friday after Apr hit a 2-month high of $296.50 on Thursday.
"There's no particular reason for gold to fall, there's no particular news,"
said O'Neill, noting that commodities as a group were seeing a heavy selloff.
He said that liquidation of the nearby Apr contract also continues to weigh on
prices.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
The Thinker
(03/15/1999; 15:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3406)
Gold Short Position
There is a lot of talk about the huge gold short postions held by dealers, mines, hedgefunds, etc., but it seems the bigger story is who is on the other side of that position (the long side). Do they have deep pockets with the intention of taking physical delivery? I have not seen that question addressed. Can anyone enlighten me on that subject?
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 15:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3407)
Real things became cheap today
HEADLINE: Silver sinks on lack of fresh news from Buffett
Plus: CRB index falls 1.2 percent; Energy futures down
CBS MarketWatch--Mar 15, 1999

Everything Real is down
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/futures.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 15:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3408)
The Thinker's question
The stat I recall from three years ago was an average figure for all futures contracts in general. Only two percent represented legitimate price hedging by producers and consumers that concluded with delivery/receipt of the commodity. 98% of the contracts are passed back an forth among speculators. A VERY BIG TAIL wagging Gandalf's poor dog, Spot.
I don't know if gold futures are typical of the other futures on average. My hunch is that speculators play a much more significant role. More than 98%?!! HArd to imagine, isn't it? That is why physical offtake can be accomplished so cheaply; rules of physical 'supply and demand' do not set the price in the short term for the physical goods because they are oblivious to that comparably miniscule and seemingly insignificant element of the market.
BUT, and this is huge...over the long term these contracts must all be unwound. One long contract asking for delivery of a metal that is nowhere to be found...Whew!...at what price would cash be able to lay off the obligation to deliver? ---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 15:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3409)
canamami
I don't know that today was such a disaster. Look at the big picture. Gold is coming off a 19-year bear market. Turning the long term picture around will require a major shift in mass expectations away from disinflation and toward reinflation. We all want to just get on with it, but let's not be disappointed at every false start. For now, let's recognize this base-building for what it is.

A sudden report suggesting lower producer prices ought to be enough to disrupt any gold bull market as inchoate as this one. Do you take this as a sign that prices are about to fall? I wouldn't bet on it.

Today's flight from the metals included traders who saw what the PPI did on Friday and don't trust tomorrow's CPI to be any kinder. Many of them will be back as soon as higher paper prices, higher airline prices, higher gasoline prices, higher housing costs(motgages), etc. make themselves felt over the weeks to come.

So, hang in there my friend. Bullion prices are no lower today than in late '97, this despite having just survived the worst brush with deflation in your lifetime.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 15:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3410)
Yesterday's comments by FOA
After the opportunity to mull it over for a day, does anyone have any new thoughts or perspective of the Global Chess-match?

Does anyone think that maybe the LatAm talks of dollarization of their currencies is no more than a veil to liquidate bonds under non-threatening pretenses and to spend the dollars while the spending is good? Things are cheap in dollars NOW. Were the true intent to be disclosed, bonds would fall like a rock and dollars wouldn't buy much anymore. Kinda makes you wonder... After all, no nation would be so obtuse as to seriously place their future in the hands of a dollarization scheme; not in the face of a viable alternative. ---Aristotle
Gold Dancer
(03/15/1999; 16:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3411)
Farfel
I think I side with your observations in the gold market.
Could be a set up. I was happy to see the big drop today
not because I like seeing my portfolio go down but because
volitility precedes price movement.
After this week the price of gold should come back fast.
Then we will see the power of the longs IF it is out there.
Probably after options expiration!!!

The stock market is a different story. I give up in trying
to forcast its future. The bears have been wrong too long
to have credibility. That includes me.

So I just stick to the undervalued gold market and
await the move up. Today was UGLY in a beautiful sort of
way.

Thanks, GD
USAGOLD
(03/15/1999; 17:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3412)
Update....The Beat Goes On.....
The interesting thing about today's gold and silver sell-off was the lack of any substantial reason for it. I talked with several traders who said the market was essentially featureless. In the Bridge News report this afternoon, Roger Chaplin points out that Warren Buffett could have just as easily added to his silver holdings as subtracted based on his statements from Saturday. So where does the mainstream press justify its pretense that Buffett was the cause of the sell-off. It doesn't add up. In fact the one thing I could say without hesitation about Buffett's remarks is that he went out of his way to be obtuse. In the same Bridge report an analyst from Barclay's points out that if Buffett would have been liquidating some of his position something would have leaked. Nothing did.

As for gold, Merrill Lynch's Bill O'Neil said "There's no particular reason for gold to fall, there's no particular news." Even if you take the Chirac comment seriously, sophisticated market players know that it will take until next year before the subject can even be discussed in an actionable format, and even then it remains doubtful the sales will actually take place.

So why the nearly $6 drop? Not surprisingly, Mr. Insider tells me it was the bullion banks and commodity funds leading the selling. Morgan Stanley and J Aaron came into the market as sellers this morning early and there was piling on toward the end of the session from a variety of sources. Today's action looked hauntingly familiar. There have been several similar instances over the past few months -- one or two day big sell-offs where the shorts pick a price and then ancillary players pile in to drive it still lower. These usually turn out to be one or two day wonders and the market struggles back up again.

What I find odd about all the markets these days is that the only market phenomena Wall Street finds useful is momentum.... Fundamental analysis has no meaning not just in gold but in stocks as well. Technical analysis tells you nothing. It's become a joke. In any market! Wall Street houses could close up all of its research departments and nobody would even realize they were gone. All that matters is what the big traders are doing and all of them are playing follow the leader -- IN ALL MARKETS!

The only thing that matters is who is doing what to whom. The markets no longer reflect a plausible, quantifiable or justifiable reality. They've, in fact, become unreal. That is why I find the Elliot Wave Theory article over at the Gilded Opinion so interesting.

The choice for most investors is to either join the party, play along and hope for the best. (In which case I would earmark you a candidate for fleecing.) Or stand back and let nature take its course with a reliable stash of real money stored nearby. Perhaps it is the realness of gold that makes it such a comforting holding for the modern investor in this era of the greatest mania ever visited upon the face of the earth. Most sense that something is wrong.

By the way, because this move lacks anything close to a fundamental cause, I'm going to rate it another one-day wonder courtesy of Wall Street's big trading houses. At CPM the phones rang constantly today -- a very active Monday. I talked with several clients and whenever I mentioned that gold was down $6, they didn't particularly care. They have other concerns. The beat goes on.........

We could have a few more down days, but I think today was overdone....We could get another quick turnaround.

Oh boy....I hate it out here on the limb....
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 17:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3413)
S.J. Kaplan --- You gotta love this guy !!
Gold Mining Outlook by Steven Jon Kaplan
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com.
Updated @ 6:00 p.m. EST, Monday, March 15, 1999.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Ignore the traders' commitments--at your peril!
IT'S ONLY A PAPER MOON: On Monday the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 finished the day at a new all-time peak of 34.68, up 0.34, according to Dow Jones News. By almost any measure, including the ratios of price to book, total market capitalization to GDP, and dividend yield to bond yield, the last time any equity market was so overvalued was in London in 1720
COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities declined substantially on Monday, with precious metals closing lower except for palladium. Gold triggered numerous speculator sell stops highlighted by Friday's traders' commitments as it sank $5.80. Silver plunged 21.2 cents, platinum slumped $2.70, and palladium gained $1.55.
KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question (from Mr. Mike Ballanger): To what do you attribute Monday's collapse in the gold price? Answer: Whenever there are a large group of speculators who are long any commodity, there are likely to be sell stops that these speculators place to limit their losses. The location of these stops is usually easy to predict, so on any given day, traders who temporarily establish a short position can "gun" for the stops. As the first set of stops is triggered, their sell orders cause a cascading effect. This most often happens on Monday, though the reason for this calendar pattern is unclear. No doubt Friday's release of the traders' commitments made it clear to the world that
there were thousands of speculator long positions in gold that were vulnerable. In order to hit the maximum number of sell stops with the minimum amount of capital, traders usually wait until the highly liquid markets in Europe close before doing most of the damage. Such was certainly the case today.
*****Thanks SJK --- another lesson learned!
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 17:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3414)
Gold Dancer
Please don't blush, but I find a lot of wisdom in what you just posted. Sometimes serenity is hard for a trader to achieve. Usually, having done one's homework, is what makes the difference. Apparently, that describes you.

I wouldn't fret about having misjudged the stock market, either. The average American stock peaked last April and has declined about 15% since. The advance/decline line has lately been trading BELOW the levels of last year's DOW bottom at 7400. In fact, even as the DOW hit new all time highs today, most stocks were down.

I am afraid the same liquidity which will send prices (including gold) higher this year accounts for the continued strength in a minority of stocks. Your choice is either to chase those overpriced behemoths, buy into the declining remainder or find another way. Obviously, I believe you have selected wisely.
sadus
(03/15/1999; 17:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3415)
Today was great!
I don't know about you guys, but today was awesome for gold. I must have added at least 60 ounces to my portfolio.

A thought...I suppose you've all seen the Alan Greenspan article "Gold and Economic Freedom" linked at the bottom of the main page at gold-eagle. Here's a quick synopsis:

1) Government is large and powerful because it spends so much money.
2) Government is able to spend so much only because they deficit spend, borrowing the difference from the Fed.
3) The Fed is only able to loan this money because of their ability to create money.
4) This means that the ability of banks to create money is the direct cause/enabler of big government. Therefore, government hates Gold because it directly restricts the size of government.

I have realized, they don't care how you vote! With your money in the bank, you are already making the most effective vote you can make in favor of Global Socialism. After that point, does it matter if the Democrats expand government quickly or if the Republicans expand government slowly? You lose in the end either way.

Have you ever seen those people who go into McDonalds and order a Big Mac, Large Fries, and a DIET COKE? Seems rather stupid...what's the point of drinking a diet coke if you are going to gorge yourself on a fattening Big Mac?

That is what I think about those people who vote for smaller government but then put their money in the bank. They are essentially supporting the system that makes big government possible in the first place!

The problem was, where else can I put my money? If I put it in GOLD, I am unable to spend it without converting it back, and thus losing whatever I spent on the premium. I always had to budget: "Ok this money goes into gold, that money is for bills and groceries, etc."

There must be some way for me to store ALL my money as gold, but still be able to spend it directly out of that pot, in order to pay bills and day-to-day expenses. My own solution is that I am now using E-GOLD.COM as my bank! I'm not involved with e-gold other than as a happy customer, but I had to share my glee in being able to finally extract myself from the disgusting and fraudulent system of modern fractional-reserve banking.

Try it for a few paychecks, pay a few bills with it. Support gold... it will certainly support you. Just remember: from this point on, if you hold dollars, you are knowingly and deliberately choosing fiat over gold, even though you had a choice not to. Actions speak louder than beliefs.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 17:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3416)
April gold again at $287.60
See the silver eagles in this repost. I don't see how they can even post a price. Have you tried to buy any lately. Silver Eagles are NIS (NOT IN STOCK). Maple Leafs at MONEX are one-month out on delivery.

Date: Mon Mar 15 1999 13:25
moa (Bulk wholesale coin prices.) ID#269128:
Copyright � 1999 moa/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Selected coin prices Monday
Gold Coins
Bid Chg.
American Eagle, 1 troy oz. $307.10 off $ 3.00
American Eagle, .50 oz. $155.00 off $ 1.50
American Eagle, .25 oz. $78.90 off $ 0.80
American Eagle, .10 oz. $37.70 off $ 0.30
Austla. Kangaroo, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
Aus. Philharmonic, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
Maple Leaf, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
China Panda 1994, 1 troy oz. $307.10 off $ 3.00
Krugerrand, 1 troy oz. $298.70 off $ 2.80
U.S. Silver Coins $1000 face
value pre 1964 circulation. $5183.80 off $64.30
U.S. Silver Eagle, 1 troy oz. $7.70 off $ 0.09
U.S. Platinum Eagle, 1 troy oz. $381.80 off $ 1.60
Bulk wholesale prices. Source: M.T.B. Bank
sadus
(03/15/1999; 17:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3417)
To make my point more clear:
Just to clarify my point from my previous post:

A lot of people today (and in this forum) see gold as an investment, as something that competes with stocks. But we also know that gold is money, and thus it competes with dollars.

If you are able to choose gold over dollars, as money, are you? That is the freedom that e-gold gives to me.
PH in LA
(03/15/1999; 17:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3418)
Heartfelt Welcome Back to FOA and Another!
"So you see, the world is changing! The evolving gold market isn't about shorts being squeezed, or manipulation by banks or lawsuits. It's much, much bigger than that! As Another so often puts it "we watch this new gold market together, Yes?"

GREETINGS! FOA and Another, and welcome back after what seemed at times an interminable absence!

I, too, have absented myself from an active role in these discussions of late for the simple reason that comprehension in your absence has eluded me these several months. Interminable miniscule fluctuations in gold's price long ago became meaningless even as lawsuits were launched under the banner of "manipulation!" with gold obviously forced into compliance to protect those shorting it to its present historic low level. For some time, it has been obvious that there is nothing left of a free market in gold and/or silver. As USAGold eloquently comments: "The interesting thing about today's gold and silver sell-off was the lack of any substantial reason for it." I certainly don't pretend to understand anything worth commenting upon here, and have not felt like I have had any insights worth posting for some time. You and Another could not have returned at a better moment. The unceasing search for meaning that is served up daily to explain microscopic moves in gold and mindless oscilations in silver have grown all too stale. There must be more to the picture that we are missing. Let's hope that your renewed input can clarify a bigger picture. Until that happens, I for one (together with Farfel?) am standing aside.

PS. Does anyone have a URL yet on rumors of a large-scale resignation in the ranks of the EU Commission?
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 18:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3419)
PhD of LA's Question
The notices of the ECB at www.ecb.int/ have not posted any such items as of today.
<;-)
Phoenix
(03/15/1999; 18:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3420)
ANOTHER
Come out of the closet, o wise one.
He who speaks the truth, hides not his face.

Who are you?
Why is it that gold goes DOWN when you are UP?
beesting
(03/15/1999; 18:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3421)
Computers and Bimetallism
Aristotle and AragornIII: Continuing the discussion on bimetallism,there is one factor present in todays world that was not invented yet when the world,long ago enjoyed,the Gold and Silver standards--COMPUTERS!!! Computers are now interconnected to the point where modern society is panic stricken at the thought of breakdown.(Y2K) However,if we introduce a worldwide bimetallistic floating monetary system I think it could work because of the computer,after problems from Y2K are over.2001?? Computers calculate numerous trans-actions right now on a world wide scale.The next step as I see it would be for the computer to calculate the price of a given transaction converting the then current price of silver(smaller change)and Gold from world spot price in ounces or grams to the floating price of the product being bought.BINGO,we're on a world Gold and silver standard.Please don't jump all over me yet I'm sure many details would have to be worked out.Local businesses would have to program in their profit factors'sales taxes,etc.
My Gold mentor(since passed on)from many years ago had a favorite saying I'd like to share with the other Knights: Average people talk about people'smart people talk about things,and geniuses talk about ideas.

Voyager#3383 and backlash#3341 confiscation of Gold:The same mentor I mentioned above was involved in the Gold and mineral business as an assayer in New York City(possibly for the government)during time of confiscation,his words to me about confiscation went something like this:Gold by government decree was no longer to be used in every day transactions!Many company's had(especially in the western U.S.)minted their own Gold tokens to pay company employees when government money was not available(pre-1933 probobly late 1700's and 1800's)some are still around.Placer Gold was excepted in many places,just as it can be exchanged for paper money today.That was outlawed.
The major change according to my friend was, all newly mined Gold had to be sold to the government in exchange for government approved paper money at a government set price.A government agent was stationed at every working gold mine located on U.S.soil,to make sure this policy was implemented.This policy quite effectively shut down the than thriving Gold mining industry in the U.S.to this day.IMHO only the Government approved biggest mines are operating now.Similar to whats been happening in farmland USA today.

Mr.ANOTHER and FOA:To me sharing your thoughts,perceptions,projections, and insight on world economics,is as value-able as Gold,I can use this knowledge to plot mine and my family's course on the chessboard of life,as I so choose.A large THANK YOU!!!

Mr.Gandalf#3338:Your question,If the price of Gold goes above $300 what effect will that have on the stock market?
The picture that came to my mind when I thought about this question was a gigantic vehicle made of one pound paper blocks,each block represented one dollar,wallowing thru space,being propelled by new blocks being forced under the base,with so much weight movement is slow motion.Under the right conditions the blocks could be slowly removed,and repositioned,or the blocks could come crashing down.Gold $300 should't effect the vehicle to much,Gold $400,$500 or higher could get many blocks repositioned.From where I sit your guess is as good as mine.Hope an over active imagination doesn't offend anyone.............beesting
Phoenix
(03/15/1999; 18:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3422)
Whole EU executive committee just resigned.
European Commission to resign: source
BRUSSELS, March 16 (AFP) - The European Commission was Tuesday on the point of resigning en masse, a senior official said.
The source said Farm Commissioner Franz Fischler had already offered his resignation and that the other 19 commissioners would do so imminently.
The moves follow the publication on Monday of a damning report on the commission's handling of fraud.
The report, drawn up by a five-member panel appointed by the European Parliament, accused the commission of losing control over fraud and corruption in its ranks.

Comment: Euro is dead. ANOTHER great "prediction" just in time.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 18:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3423)
Test
Test
Ray Patten
(03/15/1999; 18:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3424)
A Y2K update & A CHALLENGE TO A QUEST!
Chevron Oil (CHV), quarterly report (10-Q), 11/6/98:
"Because of the scope of Chevron's operations, the company believes it is impractical to seek to eliminate all potential year 2000 problems befor they arise. As a result, Chevron expects that its year 200 assessment and corrections will include ongoing remedial efforts in the year 2000."

Marathon Oil (MRO), annual report (10-K), 3/8/99:
"The lack of accurate and timely year 2000 date impact information from suppliers of automation and process control systems and processes is a concern. Without quality information from suppliers, specifically on embedded chip technology, some year 2000 problems could go undetected until after January 1, 2000."

Conoco (COC), annual report (10-K), 2/26/99:
"In the plant systems area, all but two of the Company's business units have completed their inventory and assessment audits; the remaining units are expected to complete this work by the end of the second quarter of 1999. The Company is relying on vendor testing and certification with validation through limited internal testing and/or industry test results. Downtime for normally scheduled plant
maintenance will be used to conduct testing, with corrective action expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 1999."

Mobile Oil (MOB), quarterly report (10-Q), 11/12/98:
"There are, however, an almost infinite number of additional risks which are simply not assessable and for which, therefore, contingency plans cannot be developed. There are the risks of failure for year 2000 reasons of one or more systems or relationships with external agents which, individually, Mobile does not judge to be materially important but whose failure could trigger a cascade of other failures for year 2000 reasons, the combination of which could be materially important or could prevent Mobile from inplementing contigency plans it has developed. Such a combination of failures could also have a material adverse effect on Mobile's result of operation, liquidity and/or financial condition."

Exxon (XON), quarterly report, 11/12/98: Don't worry, be happy.

Texaco (TX), annual report (10-K), 2/25/99: Don't worry, be happy.

I CHALLENGE BY FELLOW GOLDEN KNIGHTS OF THE ROULD TABLE TO A QUEST!
Let us quest for the grail of truth about what the next near will bring us. Our government won't tell us, but this same government has decreed that all public companies must tell their shareholders what they are doing to prepare for the year 2000. As you can see from the above quotes, this is interesting reading. And it's all right here on the internet. If we each take an industry and report the results right here on this magical forum, in a few months, we could be the most informed group in the world about the year 2000. Search and Ye shall find.

THE MAP:
1. Go to: quote.yahoo.com (no www).
2. Get a 'basic' quote on your favorite company.
3. In the 'more info' box, click on 'profile'.
4. Click on SEC (raw filings).
5. Click on the latest 10-Q or 10-K reports and scroll down
to "Year 2000 Readiness".
6. Post all interesting quotes to your fellow GOLDEN KNIGHTS.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 19:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3425)
PH in LA....Europe in Chaos
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990315/19/news-eu

If the EURO collapses, you can be certain the Wall Street houses will
CROW over the positive benefits to the US Dollar and American stock and
bond markets. All that European flight money, you know.

What else is new? After all, Americans loved the Asian misery, they
laughed at the Russian horror, they rejoiced over the Brazilian
crisis...they'll just go into absolute over-the-top ecstasy at the
prospect that Europeans are also headed for disaster! That's just the
way things are in Clinton's "perverted" America...The more foreigners
eat SH_T, the happier (and richer) Americans become! Ain't life
grand?

However, the LAST thing America needs right now (from the perspective of
US exporters) is a strong Dollar.

Moreover, if the EURO should destabilize, thereby precipitating havoc in
European financial markets, then although there may be short term
benefits for the US Dollar and markets, unfortunately EURO collapse
could be the final straw leading to European financial market collapse.

It seems to me that if Europe goes down the tubes, then America will
find it impossible to maintain its special "oasis" status. With
Europeans pouring flight money into American markets, then
super-inflation/stagflation cannot be avoided. The dismal reality will
slap Americans in the face, despite any governmental distortions of PPI
and CPI.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 19:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3426)
Test.
Test Test.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 19:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3427)
TA
$285.50 bottom. Two -- maybe three -- more down days, then maybe four up days to around $290-$291 (that is what the tea leaves are saying, in my opinion).

Monthly chart shows gold actually to be in a move away from a lowering bollinger. It is quite possible (nothing is given in this game) that gold is actually in week one of five to six up weeks that could see gold at $310, and if not $310 then perhaps $300. If gold hits (not closes] $292.75 or higher this week at any point, then this would add one more data points to proving that theory.



April gold now $287.20.

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html#update
WhisperingLow
(03/15/1999; 20:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3428)
MAYBE MANIPULATION ISN'T ALWAY THE REASON FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES!
GOLD (& commodities), CASH, BOND & EQUITY MARKETS are constantly in competition for our investment dollars.

I posted this a few days ago as one reason why gold call buying might be increasing.

Let's say a person has a million invested with 10% of that in gold in the form of mutual funds (could be gold equities or physical). He sees downside risk on this exposure but requires the gold position as a hedge against a market or fiat currency crash. Also, he sees the equity market continue to outperform this gold position.

One solution might very well be to buy long-term out of the money relatively inexpensive call options on gold to match his position. This would give him the opportunity of liquidating his current gold hedge while allowing him the opportunity of reinstating that hedge with a cap limit for the period of time covered by the calls. This procedure would remove the potential downside risk and free up additional investment capital for more productive positions.

When equity markets continue to advance euphorically ... even the most solid gold bug might look in envy and decide to employ such a strategy. GOLD MIGHT TEMPORILY GO DOWN AS MONEY GETS ATTRACTED AWAY AND INTO EQUITIES.

Today gold looked vulnerable while both bonds and equities improved in value. It is only natural to expect some migration from (safe haven) to (join the party).

And meantime if we choose, we can have our own pary buying more gold on the dips.
Richard, Oregon
(03/15/1999; 21:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3429)
Morgans Anyone?
When I mentioned Morgans, I believe I opened the dialog box a little. What I am seeking is an opinion(s) to the following:

1) I have a number of MS64 Morgans which have appreciated nicely in the last year while gold, for the most part has been flat. I've considered trading the Morgans in for gold, either pre-1933s or bullion of some sort, but the Morgans, for this time anyhow, have out performed gold (my pre-33' have only gone up a little). I believe the Morgans would hold an "easily recognizable trading value" (Y2K), unlike double eagles, etc. If I wait say six months or so, the Morgans could command a considerable greater percentage than they do now but, . . . . . I may miss the gold explosion which most likely will blow the Morgans away. What to do?? Do I sound like I'm whining. Does anyone follow me and have an opinion?

2) Regarding confiscation and pre-33s, Morgans, bullion. Is it common belief here that pre-33s and Morgans would be safe under the previous "confiscation" decree but bullion would not? It is my understanding that initially all gold was to be confiscated but then an amendment exempted pre-33s?

3) If you did NOT have your pre-33s, Morgans, or bullion in a safe deposit BOX, would the G-men be able to confiscate your goodies, even under some stupid decree? Just wondering where to bury this stuff, you know. (How does that go, yea when they can pry my fingers off the handle, or something like that.)
turbohawg
(03/15/1999; 22:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3430)
EWT STU
This comes from tonight's Elliott Wave Theorist Short Term Update as written by Steve Hochberg, one of Prechter's analysts. Whichever way the move, there would be reasons to cheer.

>[April Gold] closed below $290 today suspending bullish prospects. This break appears to carry larger bearish significance for two reasons. First, the advance from the recent $284.30 low (Jan. 27) traced out a corrective pattern, which means the one larger trend remains down. Thus new lows beneath $284.30 should be seen, and this in turn places the late-August low of $270.75 in jeopardy, basis the spot price. Remember, as the newsletter has consistently outlined a break of the August low would forcefully signal that another leg down is underway in gold's larger bear market. There is no significant support until beneath $200. The second reason pertains to the latest release of the Commitment of Traders data by the CFTC. Page 9 of the March issue of EWT showed a chart that revealed the Commercials (the smart money) had recently pushed their net long position to levels that have usually resulted in moderate bounces. The latest figures released Friday evening, which encompass a small price bounce in the two weeks to March 9, show that the Commercials have sold a stunning 77,499 contracts to go from a net long of 71,812 to a net short of 5687. This aggressive selling of gold by the Commercials, coupled with a bearish wave pattern suggest that something big may be about to happen in this precious metal. Odds favor a decline. It would take an immediate rally that carries back above last Thursday's $296.20 high to revive bullish prospects.<
PH in LA
(03/15/1999; 22:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3431)
More Problems for the Euro?
For the sake of the Euro, I sure hope there is less to this story than meets the eye!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000283800036613&rtmo=Vqrq6MwK&atmo=hhhhhhhe&pg=/et/98/5/21/weuro21.html

Thursday 21 May 1998
A HIGH-security hologram stamp designed to protect 13 billion new euro notes from forgery has been stolen from an Air France jet, prompting fears that counterfeiters are already equipping themselves to flood Europe with fake euros.

The one-off original stamp, needed to make the holograms embedded in the euro notes when they are issued in January 2002, was entrusted to Air France in Paris by the Brink's security firm on May 12 and placed in the hold of the Paris-Munich flight AF 2522.

On arrival in Munich, Air France staff discovered that the small, 2lb parcel containing the stamp was missing and raised the alarm. A search of the plane yielded no clues and Air France says it cannot be sure if the package was taken in Paris, where the flight was delayed for 20 minutes, or in Munich.

Yesterday, an Air France spokesman confirmed that the company had been aware of the contents of the package, which was under "specific surveillance". The airline, which is legally responsible for the theft, has filed criminal charges against "persons unknown".

The stamp was made by Hologramme Industries, a small French firm near Marne-la-Valle�. It was on its way to a German company, based near Munich, which will be printing the first euro notes. Their introduction on January 1, 2002, represents an opportunity for any fraudster sharp enough to make a plausible copy of the high denomination 500 euro and 200 euro notes - which will be worth around �350 and �140 each.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000283800036613&rtmo=a45WBJ4J&atmo=HHHHHH8L&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/99/1/31/wmaf31.html&pg=/et/99/1/31/wmaf31.html

31 January 1999
THE Italian Mafia has printed millions of counterfeit euro banknotes which are already in circulation, police intelligence sources have told The Telegraph.

The disclosure is the first "concrete evidence", as one officer described it, that criminal gangs are stockpiling huge amounts of euros in order to flood the currency markets when the notes are officially brought into circulation in 2002.

Officers from Britain's National Criminal Intelligence Service, which gathers information about international crime, said that the emergence of fake notes so soon after the euro's launch this month confirmed what they have long feared - that the new European currency will be accompanied by a huge rise in money-laundering, counterfeiting and bank robberies.

The new evidence comes just weeks after Serge Bertholme, the treasurer of the Bank of Belgium, gave the most candid acknowledgment yet by a European central banker of the dangers the new currency poses because of its susceptibility to organised crime.

He told a conference organised by the London law firm Stephenson Harwood: "The risk for counterfeiting will be very high since the euro banknotes will be widely used. Organised crime is increasing and modern reproduction technology offers the opportunity to produce fairly good copies of any printed picture."

He said that the European Union's institutional framework for fighting forgers was "far from . . .satisfactory". Although the euro would circulate freely inside and outside the euro-zone, legislation and law enforcement agencies were nationally based. This "dramatically" increased the counterfeiting threat, Mr Bertholme admitted.

Italian police, who have been liaising with NCIS and Europol, the EU-wide police force, say that the fake notes have been designed using the website on the internet which contains details of the currency.

The notes are in circulation because many people in Italy believe they are already legal tender and have been duped into exchanging them for lire. Although the euro has been traded by banks since January 1, notes and coins will not be introduced until January 2002.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 22:55:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3432)
What does this say for the dollar?
"The risk for counterfeiting will be very high since the euro banknotes will be widely used. Organised crime is increasing and modern reproduction technology offers the opportunity to produce fairly good copies of any printed picture."

For so long the US dollars were so simplistic in design, and are so widely held...imagine the mountains of counterfeit bills that must be out there. A nation's problems are rarely unique.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 23:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3433)
Great quote beesting!
"Average people talk about people'smart people talk about things,and geniuses talk about ideas."

Also, I don't think you have this to fear at our fairest round table: "Please don't jump all over me yet..." I would hope that all ideas could be safely presented and discussed.
You must admit that it is ironic that the means (computers) in which remonetization of silver might possibly be made feasible as you propose, is generating large interest in the use of silver as money through their potential for FAILURE.
Definately ironic.
Since we are discussing ideas, why should the line be drawn at silver within this remarkable money algorithm. If adding silver is an improvement upon gold alone, wouldn't we be equally better off by the addition of copper, iron, tin, etc to the mix? A fair question, as I am simply extending your premise to yet other metals. If ONE is not enough, aren't ever-more better? Where do we reach diminishing returns? Shouldn't money be kept simple and functional if the possibility allows? Just questioning the tenets of life in these united States. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3434)
Ecuador
Intersesting outcome when Ecuador bank's reopened. From Exite news.

"But with over half of the banks' $8.6 billion deposits frozen for a
year under a new decree, bank deposits actually rose Monday
and the battered sucre closed 25 percent stronger against the
dollar."
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3435)
beesting
I first saw that quote in a comic strip around 1958. One guy says "great minds talk about ideas, average minds talk about events and little minds talk about people." Second guy says " what shall we talk about?" First guy (with S.E. grin) "lets talk about people" Your version sounds like a more recent politicaly correct variant.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3436)
Aristotle, PH.
Re #3431 & #3432. I could see something like this, in either currency, driving people into only transacting through their checkbook or debit and credit cards. Even in a rural environment we only use cash these days for fast food or movies it seems. Cash may become, like outhouses did, phone booths are, and the post office soon will be; something only the poor have to use.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 02:33:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3437)
beesting
Re post #3421--My perception of the desire for a gold or bi-metal standard was to keep values of exchange constant. One would then not lose their earned entitlement through the fluctutions of fiat money. However, you are, if I understand correctly, proposing an exchange system wherby what one receives for product or labor would be controlled by the rise and fall of gold and silver prices as determined by commodity trading.

In that scenerio, someone planning say, on closing a billion dollar skyscaper purchase or corporate takeover, could afford to manipulate the spot price in their favor,prior to closing the deal. And, of course, everyone's savings would be at the mercy of those commodity markets also. (Could be even worse than with common stocks).

For a P.M. standard to exist, those metals can not also trade in a free market. They must be sold only to the government at the prevailing "fiat" rate. Personally I think that a gold standard can be abused as much as any other form of recording the exchange of commerce. If governments have the will; they will create the way!
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 05:15:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3438)
April gold firming at $287.90
Reading: VSE and ASE Canadian exchanges announce merger, but where they go nobody knows (my guess is Vancouver, as they have a newly computerized trading system (of course computers can be moved, but not without disruptions, thus my opinion of it remaining in Vancouver. One-month and three-month lease rates both up, and according to some means shorting fodder a plenty. Frankly, though, I don't see it much below $285.50. Silver looking pretty cheap but their lease rates fell out of backwardization and now are in the black. Twenty EU officials quit or were fired. All in all a quiet day...heads up.
Phantom
(03/16/1999; 08:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3439)
Where do I find the most recent posts from FOA ?
I'm new here.
Greetings to all at this exciting site.
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 08:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3440)
Today's Gold Market: No good reason for yesterday's drop in PMs
MARKET UPDATE (3/17/99): Gold continued its downtrend this morning though the
slide was a bit more subdued than yesterday's drubbing. Silver, on the other hand, got taken
to the woodshed again this morning giving up another dime or so in its pricing. Yesterday's
action in gold was interesting not so much because the yellow metal was reacting with good
reason to some major market event, but because of the distinct lack of a good reason for it.

There was the announcement by French president Chirac that he might favor IMF gold sales
to help debt ridden emerging third world nations, but this announcement lacked resonance.
Any IMF sales are at least a year away from an actionable format, and both Germany and
Japan came out strongly against the sales right after Chirac made his statement. (One
wonders how long Chirac can make this sort of noise without being shouted down by the
gold loving French people. I don't expect this latest Chirac dalliance to go very far. After all
this is the land of one of history's greatest gold advocates, Charles De Gaulle, and the place
where just about everybody has a stash of gold under the mattress.)

No, gold went down because the big commodity funds and traders on Wall Street, led by
JAron and Morgan Stanley, according to our source, Mr. Insider, drove it down. They, I
would assume, have there own reasons for shorting gold so prominently. Mr. Insider says
that he finds it "very very educational that about 65,000 shorts were scared out by just a $7
or $8 rally in gold. Then, on Monday, the shorts came right back in when the news
benefited their opinion in the marketplace." Indeed, it is.

Bridge News published two important World Gold Council reports from Asia:

--- "China has the potential to become the world's largest gold market in the next century, if
deregulation of its gold market continues as the country's gold demand from the middle class
rises, the local South China Morning Post today quoted the World gold Council's manager
for China, Emily Li Yin-ming as saying."

--- "Gold demand in India, the world's largest consumer, will rise between 5% and 10% in
1999, but smuggling is also making a comeback, a World Gold Council official said today."

The European Central Bank reported this morning that its gold stock remained unchanged
for the week ending March 12 at E99.6 billion.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?



Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
T. Remital
(03/16/1999; 09:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3441)
choo-choo..
The big guys forced a good many little fellows to jump off the train this AM..Watch out for
a big reversal before the day is over..could be the last attack we will see against the pre-
metals ..as we make way to greater hieghts.
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 10:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3442)
Phantom's question
First of all, WELCOME Phantom, to the ROUNDTABLE !! you will find FOA's first post (after a long dry spell) at Message # 3268 on 3/12 ---- Lots of reading to date. Have fun and let us hear from you often.
<;-)
jinx44
(03/16/1999; 10:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3443)
jinx44
In the last week or so, I have watched the dealer premiums on Au and Ag eagles go up. Even if the manipulated bullion market goes nowhere or down, there continues to be a brisk trade in bullion coins. Is this the start of a two-tiered market?? One that reflects a more accurate picture of consumer demand for the metals? I hope so. It would be nice to see an increasing divergence between what the controllers say the metals are worth and what real people will pay.
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 10:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3444)
The Hobbits have gone back to bed.
The fireworks show is now over !!! The DOW has broken 10K at 10,001.78 --- XAU has dropped below 60 only to rebound again ! --- Spot the dog was inundated to fall to 281.50 before wiggling free to rebound again, and the APR Au contract was pounded with shorts to fall to 282.0 before the goldhearts were able to stop the drop. THAT WAS IT ! Now, the battle cry is heard from the forest and all free and thinking persons are preparing to each do their part to right the wrongs of the evil ones and rebuild the base of true value --- GOLD. The WAR IS NOW BEGUN. Listen and watch as the Ents begin to hum and slowly move toward the walls of dark repression. They will lead the battle.
<;-)
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 11:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3445)
Parsing Clinton's Recommendation of IMF Gold Sales...
Clinton said...

"Today I ask the international community to take actions which could result in forgiving $70 billion in global debt.
Our goal is to ensure that no country committed to fundamental reform is left with a debt burden that keeps it from meeting its people's basic human needs and spurring growth," he said.

What the Alleged Serial Rapist REALLY MEANS....

"God, I pray all the IMF countries forgive all that African debt! Then, someday, they might even forgive the America's surging National Debt as well...otherwise, we're Sh_T up a creek without a paddle!"

Clinton said...

he would work with G7 colleagues on a plan for "complete
forgiveness" of bilateral concessional loans, rather than rescheduling as is done at present, and forgiveness of up to 90 percent of bilateral non-concessional debt.

What the alleged serial rapist REALLY MEANS....

"Hell, if Americans were stupid enough to forgive all my crimes, then maybe these IMF nations will be just as stupid and forgive all that African debt. Let me see how far I can stretch this forgiveness crap! I'm on a roll, baby!

Clinton said....

He said Washington would support gold sales by the IMF to do its part and additional contributions by the United States and other countries to World Bank's Trust Fund to help meet the cost of the initiative.

What the alleged serial rapist REALLY MEANS...

"Hell, as long as nobody sells our US Treasury Bills, I'm all in favor of this debt forgiveness crap! Hey, I know what I'll do...I'll tell Chirac and Shroeder to sell gold, then Anerica'll buy the stuff, and hand over billions more of that green US paper sh_t in exchange. Harharhar....I just love to con all those sh_t- for- brains, EURO retards! Harharharhar....."
backlash
(03/16/1999; 11:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3446)
Phoenix - - Post#3420 3/15/99

Respect for others.

This, a precept that I think is securely protected by the Knights of this Table Round. IMHO, this site attracts a very wide scope of attendance both for lurking and posting. Around this world, many peoples do not have the security and freedoms enjoyed at the location of this forum. As a result, there are those residing in other countries that, for very good reasons, wish to retain anonymity. That is little to ask should one consider their potential position.

Therefore, trying to elicit information from others that they wish not to reveal could drive them from this site as a poster. Such a consequence could possibly remove the THOUGHTS of some highly revered posters at this site.

Personally, I do not wish to let my identity be known. Mike knows who I am and that is sufficient. If my postings are irrelevant and/or useless, they will be ignored and I will soon cease to post; if relevant, then discussion will ensue and validate the postings. It should be hoped that all postings would be judged based upon content rather than source. Indeed this site is rich in knowledge and information sufficient for much thought leading to understanding.

Phoenix, please do not take this personally. I am not picking on you, just trying to pose another point of view regarding the identity issue. As an aside, I happened to notice that just prior to the absence of Another and FOA, there were numerous speculative posts regarding their identities. Did it have anything to do with their absence? I don't know and chose not to speculate, but it was quite coincidental.

In the spirit of all good Knights, shall we respect each others' privacy and ponder our speculations individually.

Best Wishes. bl
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 12:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3447)
Goldman Sachs Going Public...But I'd Rather Buy Horse Manure

It goes without saying that Goldman Sachs and its "mentor,"
Treasury Secretary Robbin Rubin, have caused immeasurable damage to gold investors and commodity producers in general.
Thanks to their actions in the gold market, Goldman has successfully bankrupted numerous gold mining companies, thereby throwing tens of thousands of gold employees into the streets. However, the upside is this: the Goldman traders can now order a $1000 bottle of wine with every dinner on account of the enormous profits they have reaped from the gold carry trade.

Therefore, I am all too happy to trash this company mercilessly to all who ask my opinion of it. In fact, this morning, a millionaire aquaintance in Bev Hills asked me what I thought of the Goldman Sachs IPO, and I said "SELL IT SHORT LIKE YOU'VE NEVER SOLD SHORT BEFORE!" "HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF THE WORD, "INSOLVENCY?" "IS ABBEY JOSEPH COHEN A WOMAN OR IS SHE REALLY A HERMAPHRODITE?" etc, etc.

Various gold shorting institutions have spent the last few years spreading the most malicious negative, oft absurd gossip about gold and gold companies, to the significant detriment of gold investors. They have declared war on all goldbugs...and NOW I SAY IT IS PAYBACK TIME!

GOLDBUGS...your ship has finally arrived. No, I am not speaking of a gold bull (that still remains very much in doubt). I am saying that the GOLDMAN IPO represents a fabulous opportunity to let the world know what you really believe and feel about this company. Eye for an eye....let this company HAVE IT! I've already begun providing the most profound, erudite analysis of all this company's shortcomings...its various achilles heels, etc. They and their conspiring gold shorting brethren have wiped out a good deal of your net worth these last few years...it is now time to do likewise.

Yet, you need not resort to their dirty tactics....simply TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT GOLDMAN SACHS...that is sufficient.

I will begin by parsing a paragraph from a Goldman Sachs press release...

Goldman Tuesday filed with government regulators to become a public company through a $3.45 billion offering of up to 60 million common shares. This would represent about an 11 percent stake in the firm.

This change will allow us to secure permanent capital to grow; to share ownership broadly among our employees now and through future compensation; and to permit us to use publicly traded securities to finance strategic acquisitions that we may elect to make in the future," Jon Corzine and Henry Paulson Jr., the firm's co-chairman, said in a statement.

What Goldman REALLY MEANS is this:

We desperately need this IPO so we can use our publicly traded securities to finance the huge loans we've taken to sell the gold market short and prop up this bubble stock market these last few years. Unless we can get the IMF to unload their gold, then we don't have a hope in hell of covering our gold loans this year...and if this stock market falls apart before we get our IPO together, then we will be the first investment house to go under. We're moving AS FAST AS WE CAN ON THIS ONE, BABY!
Aragorn III
(03/16/1999; 13:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3449)
Peter Asher--msg 3437
I saw your thought, "In that scenerio, someone planning say, on closing a billion dollar skyscaper purchase or corporate takeover, could afford to manipulate the spot price in their favor..."

Think instead in this manner: Gold does not have a 'price' to be manipulated. Gold has only a 'weight'!
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 13:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3450)
Phoenix..
Bye Bye, Phoenix. Personal attacks are not allowed at this site -- the who's why's and wherefore's do not matter. No personal attacks....plain and simple. Funny we never heard much from you until now. As a matter of fact, you've made zero contribution here. Adios.
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 13:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3451)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold Tumbles After Clinton Imf Comments

New York-March 16-FWN--President Clinton today added
his name to the list of world leaders who are suggesting
that perhaps some International Monetary Fund gold reserves
should be sold to help provide debt relief to some of the
world's poor countries. And as a result, gold futures got
hammered for the second day in a row.
Silver also finished softer on more long liquidation as
lease rates continued to come down, and also continuing a
negative reaction to the lack of substantive news about the
metal in a Berkshire Hathaway report issued over the weekend.
April gold, which on Friday had traded as high as $296
and settled at $293.40, today tumbled as far as $282. The
contract settled with a loss of $3.70 to $283.90.
The yellow metal tumbled Monday when French President
Jacques Chirac commented that there must be a solution for
the debt problem of poor countries, "even if that means
selling off a part of the IMF's gold reserves." This view
was echoed Monday by the new German government, provided
that it was also supported by the Bundesbank.
Then gold fell some more today as President Clinton,
during a U.S.-Africa meeting in Washington, also suggested
that gold sales should be considered to provide for debt
forgiveness, a number of traders and analysts reported.
"The gold market is experiencing some renewed fund-type
selling in reaction to reported comments from President
Clinton that he would be in favor of IMF gold sales to fund
debt relief to poor countries," said Dave Rinehimer, head of
futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
He did note, however, that the market shouldn't have
been surprised since Vice President Al Gore earlier this
year had spoken in favor of such gold sales.
The recent news about possible IMF gold sales is coming
at a time when the market had already been working its way
back down after being unable to penetrate technical
resistance to the upside last week, commented Rinehimer.
But while the potential for IMF gold sales is the main
focus of the market, said Rinehimer, he offered the view
that the move is a "little bit overdone." If there are any
such sales, he said, officials will likely conduct them in a
manner that would avoid a major disruption in the market.
"I don't think they're going to dump 5 million ounces
of gold in the market. Even if it is approved, and that's
not going to happen overnight, the amount and timing would
be such that it shouldn't significantly alter the overall
supply in the market.
"I think they'd be conscious to spread out the sales
over a period of time to not disrupt the market."
He said the U.S. and European nations have significant
gold reserves and will not want to depress prices.
Rinehimer put support for April gold at $277, with
resistance at $287.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3452)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Gold hits 6 1/2-mo low on Clinton
By Darcy Keith and Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

New York--Mar 16--COMEX Apr gold settled down $3.7 at $283.9 after tumbling
to a 6 1/2-month low of $282.0 on remarks from US President Bill Clinton urging
the IMF to sell gold to help poor nations. May silver settled down 5.5c at
$5.043 after falling to a 2 1/2-month low of $4.955 early in the session, with
some players still seen liquidating positions on disappointment that Berkshire
Hathaway this past weekend failed to provide any new information on the
company's silver positions. Silver trimmed some of its losses into the close,
however, on feelings the sell-off might have been overdone.
* * *
Heavy sell stops were triggered in gold on the move past $285, accelerating
gold's sudden downturn following reports of Clinton's remarks, and pushing gold
through several support lines. COMEX locals were said to be the most aggressive
sellers.
Clinton today reiterated the long-held policy of the US of supporting
International Monetary Fund gold sales to help with poor nation's debt relief.
Clinton made the remark about gold during a speech at the State Department
concerning Africa. In outlining a series of steps to help African economies,
Clinton mentioned "support for gold sales by the IMF to do its part." (See story
.19121)
While US Vice President Al Gore has stated his support for IMF gold sales in
the past, this is believed to be the first time Clinton publicly voiced his support.
"It's not good news, but it's not a firm announcement," said one dealer.
"The market is concerned with the bigger implications of does this mean a
spillover change in policy for the US."

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3453)
Commission members resign
EU Hopes Crisis Will Kick-Start Reforms--March 16, (Reuters)

Resignation of all 20 members of the European Commission...NOT to be confused with the European Central Bank!
Lots of related links on this page.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990316/wl/europe_9.html
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3454)
More Bridge News on IMF Gold
An IMF spokesman confirmed today that the International Monetary Fund is
considering proposals for selling IMF gold reserves to raise funds for debt
relief to poor countries, but said no decisions have been made on timing.
US legislation from 1983 requires congressional approval of IMF gold sales,
if proceeds would benefit a specific group of countries. With its control of a
17% share of IMF votes, the US could block a move to sell gold, which requires
an 85% majority. (Story .20439)
Market watchers said Clinton's remarks spurred funds to go short and
liquidate positions. Some suggested Clinton's remarks sparked such a sell-off
because it closely followed French President Jacques Chirac's remarks earlier
this week on potential gold sales. Chirac called for solutions to tackle
multilateral debt of poor countries, including gold sales.
Ian MacDonald, executive vice president at MKS Finance, said that "leaders
are shooting themselves in the foot" because as the gold price goes lower, it
hurts the IMF and hurts developing countries, many of which depend on gold
production.
He said that with the fall in the gold price Friday, and the increase in
open interest, there had to be substantial selling into the market. While
central banks continue to deny sales, "if there are not direct gold sales,
someone somewhere is doing a large amount of mobilization," he maintained.
He said that when Gore made comments on IMF gold sales at the Davos meeting
earlier this year, there was so much opposition it didn't seem to have an affect
on the price. However, now that the French are saying that they will support
gold sales, it has spooked the market, he said.
"This market is still fundamentally weak and it looks like there are
more of these sales to come," said MacDonald. "It still smells and feels
like a bear market."
One source suggested gold has been on a downward spiral lately and Clinton's
comments only sped up the move to the downside. He added that the amount of gold
the IMF may sell would not be that significant anyway as it would be disposed of
over a long period of time. Also, it may take a long time for Congress to
approve the sale, if they choose to approve it at all, he said.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
The Stranger
(03/16/1999; 14:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3455)
From the Every Cloud has a Silver Lining Department...
Hey, did you guys notice what the mining stocks did today? The XAU was UP some .72, the last I looked (at 4PM NY time). Come to think of it, the stocks just weathered a $14/oz bullion drop rather well.

On another matter, I don't want to defend Phoenix. I don't have any idea who he is. I like the harmonious atmosphere in this room. I have never felt a greater sense of friendship anywhere. As a late arrival, however, I do share his apparent puzzlement over the near reverence with which we treat FOA and Another. Their names, the fact that they come in two instead of one, the way they fade in and out of communication, the speaking in parables, it all strikes me as kind of religious. I am not sure Another has even posted in the two months I have been here. Yet, the fact that he might even be thinking of posting seems to create an awful lot of excitement. Would some gentle knight please fill me in. I ask out of respect and affection for all.
sadus
(03/16/1999; 15:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3456)
Stranger...
FOA has served as a conduit for ANOTHER's thoughts. ANOTHER started posting, I think originally at Kitco. He posts anonymously but he has a very interesting theory. He has also made several specific predictions that later came true exactly as he said they would, and he talks as if he has some type of inside knowledge. I think some of his thoughts are posted on this site, linked from the front page. But if you really want to know what it's all about, get the book "Footsteps of Giants" that MK is selling.
Believe me it's worth it.
backlash
(03/16/1999; 15:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3457)
Stranger Post #3455

Agreed on the silver lining. Only wish it were gold, then again, maybe it is. We wait and see.

Your question regarding Another and FOA.

Mike, at my expense (please bill me), please send Stranger a copy of "In the Footsteps of Giants". Stranger, after reading the book, please spend some time to absorb the THOUGHTS and concepts presented therein. You may well not agree with all you read; however, there is much to contemplate. And much food for thought as well.

While I am not sure I agree with everything contained in the book, I truly appreciate the fact that concepts are presented in a different light than we have been used to seeing them. As time passes and I learn more on the subjects prsented at this forum, I must admit that I keep harking back to material presented by Another (and agreeing on more points). I perceive that Another falls into the 'Great Minds' category of thinkers as discussed in several posts of the last two days. He presents concepts and food for thought without forcing agreement. This, to me, is the sign of a truly good (no, GREAT) teacher.

You will need to go back to the earliest archieves available to get some of his/their postings before their absences. After you have read the book, please let me know what your thoughts are. Many of the Knights of this table honor Another and FOA for the teachings of their ideas inasmuch as they stimulate our thinking. Is that not the point anyway?

Good luck in your obvious quest for knowledge.

Best Wishes, bl
Phantom
(03/16/1999; 15:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3458)
Excitement about ANOTHER and FOA
Dear Stranger:
These two gentlemen are worth the excitement.
Personally, I have read "In the Footsteps of Giants" and followed their contributions at kitco.
It was especially the contributions of ANOTHER that I started to understand the importance of gold as money in the international financial markets.
Just now it only seems that the role of gold as the queen of all currencies is unimportant. That's part of the great manipulation of minds which is permanently happening.
Besides, these contributions put my attention to the Bank for International Settlement in Switzerland and it's role in the global financial markets.
The knoweledge with which ANOTHER speaks is authentic and original, coming from a spirit who knows what he is talking about. You don't learn these kind of insights at Universities, during seminars for economics.
beesting
(03/16/1999; 15:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3459)
Us-ing Metals for Money
Aristotle,I have been searching all day for my reference books explaining the old English system of weights of metals equal value in their old monetary system.I can't find my references.Grrrr.However,from memory it seems their system of weights and measures tied into their monetary system.Can anyone out there help to research this?

Putting that thought into the current discussion,"us-ing metals for money"Again,with planning I see this as a feasible plan us-ing the metric system,for a worldwide Gold based monetary system,and the magic of computers'satelites, and telephone systems to coordinate transactions.Keeping honesty and integrity as the most important part of the plan.World supply of physical available metal would determine coin prices(supply and demand)on a floating system much the same as the current U.S.gasoline prices at the pump right now.
For information purposes the largest Gold coin minted in my book of world coins is the: 10,000 YUAN .999 Gold Wt.156 ounces.How would you like to feel that jingling in your pocket.............beesting
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 15:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3460)
Beesting --- The Hobbits want mo info, PLEASE
This 10K Yuan coin of 0.999 Au ---- did you say one hundred and fifty-six oz. ? 13 (thirteen) Pounds ? please tell us of the dates of striking, the contents of both sides, the size and how many of these pocket breakers are available. Thanks in advance.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 16:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3461)
Question for Another received by e-mail...
Dear Mr. Kosares:
I hail from Alaska and mine placer gold.� I check your site frequently as I'm sure you can understand
my need to have an appreciation for the future of gold.� For a "little guy" like me, times are very dark.�
Your site is a lighthouse when it comes to gleaning the inner workings of the gold from how the
freeway of urban thought would have us think.� The gentleman known as Another has written that a
day may come when the government advises it citizens to hold gold and that mines will be taxed in such
a way so as to offset the resulting reduction in capital gains tax revenue.� My question to him is this:�
will such circumstances result in squeezing the small mines out of business for good?� Will such a
governmental pursuit be masked by an apparent victory for the naturalist and enviornmental lobby in
that only the largest miners with the deepest pockets will be able to afford the regulatory hoops
government will force miners to jump through in order to mine?� Will this move you speak of spell the
end for precious metals mining and precipitate a complete federal takeover of all state and private
lands?� If true, wouldn't that mean civil war, or, could it be that a world war would justify such a
course?
thank you
sjs
ps thank you for the monthly market report.� Excellent reading!�
Voyager
(03/16/1999; 16:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3462)
PRE 33'S
Sadus & Backlash

Thank you for your answers. Although in mu mind the question still remains. Perhaps MK could advise on confiscation.

Phoenix

You missed the point of this forum.

What is important is: what you are NOT who you are.
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 16:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3463)
With respect to my last post...
It might be fun to see how some of the other bright lights at this site might answer the question below and then we will see how Another answers it (should he choose to).

So have we to say to our friend from Alaska?
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 17:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3464)
Voyager....Confiscation
My seafaring, Viking friend...

The government confiscated gold bullion ( in brick form ) and left alone gold coins simply because it had difficulty determining what was rare and what wasn't. Under the constitution, Madison and Jefferson, remembering the confiscation of assets by the crown, made sure that an eminent domain clause appeared in the constitution. Thus the assets can not be forfeited without just compensation. The government's primary goal under Roosevelt was to stop the run on the banks that had already started and keep people from converting currency to gold. If you had money in a bank, you stood a good chance of losing it or being separated from it by bank closures. Gold, an asset which is "not" simultaneously someone else's liability, did not (does not) suffer the same disadvantage.

In depressionary or deflationary scenarios when assets are being incinerated by bankruptcy and general collapse in paper asset values, gold remains unshakeable and unassailable simply because it stands on its own as money of last resort, without assistance.** Roosevelt wanted to nip the run to gold in the bud -- hence the confiscation, his very first act as president and one of the first executive orders. The pre-1933 gold coins were a small irritation compared to what would have been caused if massive amounts of money would have moved into gold in the form of bullion and out of the monetary system. For that reason they exempted the coins and concentrated on stopping the big players from converting to gold. We hope the same common and judicial sense will be applied in any future confiscation thus the advice to convert current dollars to pre-1933 gold coins. As you already know, we can offer no gaurantees that this strategy would work. We simply hope that past precedent will carry the day.

By the way, the initial confiscation order went out in April, 1933 (if I remember correctly) and the exemption was a Christmas gift to gold holders having been issued December 26, 1933. So many good Americans had already turned in their gold at $20.67 per ounce long before the exemption was issued. As you know the government then upped the price to $35 after most of the gold was confiscated.

In the end, I believe that the small additional premium the investor pays to become an owner of pre-1933 European gold coins is a small price to pay for the additional level of insurance. I would add that at today's contrived prices the extra premium could very well be a non factor. In the month of January, 1999 the Brazilian real went from 350 per ounce of gold to 600 per ounce of gold in less than 15 days! As Aragorn III so eloquently stated (and won a one tenth ounce Philharmonic: It was like lightning in the night. We generally recommend at least half of one's gold holdings be in the form of pre-1933 gold coins. Many have gone beyond that figure.

** Even in Robert Prechter's dark scenario of a collapse he is predicting the DOW to go to 800 from 10,000 and gold from 285 to 185. I disagree with Mr. Prechter's views but he has given great study to the deflationary scenario. You can see that stocks go down by over 90% and gold goes down by not even half. You see the point I'm trying to make -- gold depreciates at less rate against not just stocks but real goods, thus it shines as a preserver of assets. For a real historical example, 1933 serves well. Gold actually went up (even though by government decree) while the price level collapsed. Those who had pre-1933 gold coins not only survived; they prevailed -- to steal a Nobel laureate's phrase.

More on this some other time and I trust that this answers your question.
Quixote
(03/16/1999; 18:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3465)
A question...
As I understand it, the argument runs that gold is the ultimate currency, a pure form of value which connot change or be manufactured. However, that argument seems based on the premise that people are rational enough to recognize this unique value of gold.

I don't find this to be the case, people are idiots.

What happens to the value of gold if the majority of people, concerned with acquiring basic necessities, don't recognize gold as a legitimate medium of exchange. What if they remain content, even patriotic, about fiat currencies?

Quixote
FOA
(03/16/1999; 18:36:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3466)
EURO!
I will be back in a few days to spend some time and discuss several of the views written here. PH-in-LA, you should, perhaps, stab the Euro again, it isn't dead yet! However, I do understand the skepticism.


NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - (PARTIAL PRINTOUT)
The euro, which had fallen as low as $1.0816, recovered to end above $1.09 in New York as traders began to take a generally positive view about the crisis in the EU.
bmacd
(03/16/1999; 18:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3467)
Good Reading
Hi all. I read a great article today, and would like to share it with you. The easiest way to get there.....
www.nationalpost.com, then click on Financial Post. Under Investing and Personal Finance is an article by Jonathan Chevreau about Gold Bugs finally having their day.
Haven't posted at all in ages (I miss it), but I'm still lurking when I can.
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 19:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3468)
April gold in green at $284.50
Ok, listen up everyone. I may be reaching here but TA shows gold in a shake-out maneuver and ramping up for a bounce over $300 as early as Tuesday next week but very likely in next two weeks, maybe three. Incredible (and gutsy) as that may sound, look at daily and weekly gold chart. She is showing the classic bounce maneuver. If weekly chart closes above $286 then that improves its chances. I can not offer the event or events that will precipitate this move but (barring anymore alleged flagrant manipulation of extreme measure) this is what the charts are saying, in my opinion. So, I would appreciate someone reminding me in a few weeks I said this and I am hoping I can say (and I bet you are too), "I told you so" and not "whoops, you win some, you loose some."

And this in from GATA:

Mailing-List: contact gata-owner@egroups.com
X-Mailing-List: gata@egroups.com
X-URL: http://www.egroups.com/list/gata/
Delivered-To: listsaver-egroups-gata@egroups.com
X-Originating-IP: [193.220.72.12]
From: "Go Gata"
To: gata@egroups.com
Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 16:23:34 PST
Subject: [GATA] VIEWPOINT: Don't Forget The Big Media

A GATA VIEWPOINT
by Farfel

GATA's plea for gold investors to mount write-in campaigns to senators,
congressmen, and gold mining executives is certainly a good start. Yet,
more fuel must be added to the fire.

GATA must also go after Big Media as well, particularly giants such as
CNBC that constantly purvey anti-gold agitprop to the public on both
conscious and subliminal bases.Start at square one: there is a
continuing debate as to whether or not gold is a financial reserve/de
facto currency or merely a commodity. If gold is to be considered a mere
commodity, then its price must fall a lot further. On the other hand, if
gold is still a pandemic currency, then its price is certainly far too
low.

So, it is no small thing that CNBC treats gold as a mere commodity in
its daily financial reports. The gold price is always listed with other
commodities (such as soybeans) and is never quoted under currencies.

When CNBC provides a daily quote on the value of the Yen, Euro, and
Pound, then why is the price of gold not listed at the bottom? After
all, gold is convertible to currencies all over the world... However,
one cannot say the same thing about cattle, for example.

Is it not preposterous to suggest that gold and copper are equivalent
items in terms of their respective functions in the global economy?

Do central banks hold copper reserves? Does the Bank of International
Settlements accept copper as a currency? No, but the same international
bank DOES accept gold francs.

CNBC's negative treatment of gold is a form of mass conditioning. It has
been going on for so long now that the general public accepts it as a
fact. When CNBC provides interviews with gold analysts, then why does it
always prefer to provide the "pro-gold" perspective from the World Gold
Council? In doing so,CNBC once again treats gold as a mere commodity.
After all, from the public perspective, what is the difference between a
trade group such as the WGC and the various trade organizations that
promote milk, pork, or tobacco.

For a proper pro-gold perspective, CNBC must seek out opinions from
Central Bank governors, currency traders, treasury officials, etc. Such
people would lend credence to the idea of gold as money, a financial
reserve, and pandemic currency. Yet, on CNBC, you will never hear
comments on gold from the "money creators" and their absence from the
debate reinforces the gold-as-mere-commodity theme. Instead, CNBC
prefers to trot out commodity traders at large Wall Street firms for
comments on gold.

No matter what they say (pro or con) about the metal, the very fact that
COMMODITY traders are always the ones making the comments tells the
world that, "gold is no longer money."

n conclusion, every time a Big Media outlet such as CNBC treats gold
like any other commodity, there should be a flood of protests from gold
investors. It should be strident, chronic, and forceful. The protest
should begin at square one.... get CNBC and its ilk to treat gold as a
currency.

Everytime CNBC reverts to treating gold as a mere commodity, LIGHTUP THE
SWITCHBOARDS AND SCREAM!! If such protests don't work, then the GATA
class action must also serve process against Big Media in its
unquestionable conspiracy with Wall Street investment houses to "talk
down" the price of gold.

If I were Mr. Murphy, I would let Big Media know that they too can
expect to be targets of GATA litigation unless they change their
collective tune. Maybe the warning itself will be sufficient to effect
change.

- - - - -

------------------------------------------------------------------------
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myego33
(03/16/1999; 19:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3469)
test
Hello all - SteveH relax already Lot's of predictions - the powers that be seem to be in control for now. Time equalizes all. No need for evangilism to each his own
PH in LA
(03/16/1999; 20:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3470)
Fleckenstein on the Euro (and Greenspan)
FOA:

No one could be more dismayed than I at the performance to date of the Euro vis � vis the dollar. At the same time, I am the first to recognize that its three-months-long existence does not even qualify as an eyeblink, as currencies go. Nevertheless, I look forward to your thoughts.

Since you are polite enough to acknowledge the existence of skeptics, I include a few words by Bill Fleckenstein (who was bullish on the Euro prior to its introduction) from his commentary today: "Scandal explains euro... I think quiet must be a moral victory for Europe, given that all 20 of the commissioners of the European Union resigned over reports of waste and fraud. I guess now we know one of the reasons why the euro has been such a dog - some of the key guys behind the scenes may have been corrupt. What a debacle. This has got to be the most disastrous introduction of a new currency in the history of the planet. Maybe this big housecleaning will set the stage for an attempt to put together policies and management of a real currency. If not, the euro is going to be out of business before the year is over."

On another note, I'm glad I'm not the only one who scratches his head at the obtuse utterances of our Federal Reserve Chairman. The following comment was also on Bill Fleckenstein's page today: "Getting a grip... Greenspan made a speech today that was on the tape. He suggested that "the U.S. still faces upside and downside risks." Well, I guess the chairman has a firm grasp of the obvious."

Amen! (http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/)
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 20:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3471)
RUSSIA confronts BRITAIN on GOLD! Things are Heating Up!

Just received this FAX from a friend in Canada (see below)...

No wonder Britain has been eagerly encouraging sales of gold recently. It's probably a case of, "HIDE THE EVIDENCE!" Much of the gold floating around "out there" is probably stolen Russian gold.

Still, I wonder why Russia is so eager to get back its gold? Don't they know it is nothing more than a barbaric relic? Wouldn't British Pounds suffice? Or even US bucks?

I guess not.

--------------------------
London, March 16 (Itar-Tass) -- The Bank of England announced on Monday that it sees certain unsettled financial questions dating 80 years back as "a subject of discussion" between the governments of Great Britain and Russia. The subject in question concerns a historical fact: Emperor Nicholas II sent to Britain gold and foreign currency worth 400 billion dollars in today's prices to buy weapons. No complete settlement was made between London and Russia and the money disappeared without a trace.

According to a Bank of England press service official, the Bank provides the safekeeping of all resources at its disposal that are state assets and is not empowered to comment on the situation with the czarist gold. The press service official noted that "this case must become a subject
for discussion between the leadership of Russia and the United Kingdom, the more so since precedents exist: a Soviet-British agreement was signed in London in February '67 on the settlement of disputes, including in the financial sphere."

According to the data with which Itar-Tass was provided by the British archives, the communique dated 13 Feb.'67 and the intergovernmental agreement recognized as "completely settled" all the mutual financial and property claims that originated in the period after Jan.1, '39. Pursuant to those documents, Britain recognized that half a billion
pounds sterling belonging to Moscow had been "found" in Britain and agreed to deliver goods to make up for the amount.

But the British archives have no records of any talks between Moscow and London on the czarist money. "Britain has received no Russian claims to the gold of Nicholas II," the Bank of England official said. She advised Itar-Tass to approach the Treasury and the Foreign Office, but the press services of the two ministries responded with "No Comment."

The British governmental and financial circles are now considering the Sunday Times publication which suggests that Russia will possibly file a claim for the missing gold against London very shortly. Should Moscow secure the return of at least one-third of the amount sought, then it
will be able to immediately pay off almost 150 billion dollars of its foreign debt.

It is a recognized fact that the Russian emperor exported part of his wealth for safekeeeping in Britain shortly before the Oct. 1917 revolution. British sources will not discuss the amount of the gold taken out of Russia at that time.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 21:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3472)
"Matchmaker, Matchmaker,make me a match"
How significant, today's quote regarding the IMF gold. "Even if it is approved, and that's not going to happen overnight, *the amount and timing would be such that it shouldn't significantly alter the overall supply in the market.*" How convenient for the massive short position out there, needing to buy the physical without getting caught out by a price run-up, This is a marriage made in "Rigged market heaven." The hedge funds buy the IMF gold and the POG remains stable. How fortunate that these two situation coincidentally occurred in the same time frame. If any heads of state or central banks were in fact involved in arranging any of this , why, they would actually be Heros.

Curses!!
"
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 21:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3473)
Farfel wins the "Hobbit's Award" for the best POSTS of the day !
Those were great ! Keep up the GREAT work, Farfel.
<;-)
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 21:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3474)
myego33
Great name!

It is not just me saying this:

Date: Tue Mar 16 1999 22:53
JP (If the reverse head and shoulders pattern in gold was completed we will see ) ID#250206:
the XAU above 90 within a few weeks. This pattern has very bullish connotations. The base is large enough to
support a very high gold price. Am I dreamimg ? No, my technical studies indicate an explosive move up once the
base is complete. Now, if today was the final high in the Dow, gold price will rise for sure as big money seeks
safety. We will find out over the next week or so. Only time will tell.

-end-

Kaplan:KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question: What do you think about today's action in the XAU versus the gold price? Answer:
Before every major rally in gold, the price of gold made a final intermediate bottom while the XAU outperformed the
yellow metal during its last dip. On Tuesday at 10:09 a.m. gold hit $281.25, 55 cents lower than its January 27 nadir of
$281.80, while the XAU hit an intraday level of 59.57, slightly below its March 1 intermediate-term bottom of 59.76,
before ending the day with a net gain. This is exactly the kind of technical behavior seen in 1992-1993, the last time
that gold shares more than doubled. In other words, today's activity was very bullish technically.

From RJ at http://members.home.net/rjgold/031699c.htm

KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question: What do you think about today's action in the XAU versus the gold price? Answer:
Before every major rally in gold, the price of gold made a final intermediate bottom while the XAU outperformed the
yellow metal during its last dip. On Tuesday at 10:09 a.m. gold hit $281.25, 55 cents lower than its January 27 nadir of
$281.80, while the XAU hit an intraday level of 59.57, slightly below its March 1 intermediate-term bottom of 59.76,
before ending the day with a net gain. This is exactly the kind of technical behavior seen in 1992-1993, the last time
that gold shares more than doubled. In other words, today's activity was very bullish technically.
beesting
(03/16/1999; 21:34:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3475)
Special message For Hobbits only !
The 10,000 Yuan Coin:
The side of the coin showing in my book has what looks like a coin(round)with a panda sitting on a branch of a tree.Above the Panda's left ear is the number 10000 and the chinese symbol for Yuan.This inner coin is circled by 10 other coins all showing different bear poses,all on one giant coin. From the book:
4,851.6000 g,.999GOLD,156.0000 oz AGW
10th Anniversary of Gold Panda issue
Obv: Temple of Heaven.
y# date mintage

358 1991 10pcs. --- Proof 180,000.

What's this coin worth if Gold goes to $1500 oz. and beyond?...........beesting
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 21:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3476)
Correction:
This from RJ:

Both silver and gold got way oversold in the last two days, and an up day is imminent.
Collapsing lease rates definitely cast a pall over silver, 'tis true, but these can and do change on
a dime. I still think a strong move up is the best bet. Silver will not break lower. There is a pretty
good inverse head and shoulders thingy developing in silver. The objective in a H & S formation
is the neckline, which is right at about 5.80 this go around. I think that is a good target to shoot
for. Let look at the chart, shall we?
beesting
(03/16/1999; 21:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3477)
NOSEDIVE
I haven't seen this posted yet.The Russian stockmarket crashed 39.06% TODAY!!!Thats gotta be one of the biggest one day drops in any market in history.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Check it out...........beesting
JA
(03/16/1999; 22:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3478)
Alaska Placer Miner
In answer to your question will the government try to drive you out of business as a small gold miner. Of course they will. They have been trying to drive you out of business for the last 10 to 15 years. The whole radical environmental agenda has very little to do with protecting the environment but must to do with taking property from the citizenry. This is true in logging, mining and farming. One must remember we are the largest debtor nation, our fiat currency has no real value, so the only thing of real value is the land what it holds and what it produces. Over the years I have worked some small gold mining claims and still have several. However, when the mining laws were changed several years ago, literally thousands of small claims in the western United States were forfeited back to the government. Small mining operations are almost non existent in my state. I tried to get an assay done several months back from a local assayer that I had done business with in the past. The telephone number had changed and after several calls I found he had closed up shop and moved all his equipment to his house and has not yet hooked it back up. He said since the government changed the fee structure to maintain mining claims the industry has basically become non-existent. He had something like two requests for assays for all of the previous year. Whereas some years prior he was doing hundreds of assays a week. The founding fathers never intended for the Federal Government to own land, in a free society it is critical that the land belong to the people. The powers that be are confiscating the land because that is as close as they can come to holding collateral for their fiat currency. The know their fiat currency holds little real value.

Now the fact that they are trying to take property from the citizens does not mean they will succeed. I believe that those that are successful in holding on to their property will one day be greatly rewarded. So hang in there I believe your day will come. I believe we are close to one of those points in history when radical shifts are about to occur.
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 00:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3479)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
The World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley's WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (March 8 - March 12, 1999) has now been posted at USAGOLD.

Follow the link to "THIS WEEK IN GOLD" via the USAGOLD HomePage.

The concluding comments regarding Russia are not to be missed.
Voyager
(03/17/1999; 01:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3480)
(No Subject)
Catching up on the roundtable. Wife in bed and kids asleeep. Enjoying a new cigar I found in a small store in the mountains called a Zino. Very smooth. Anyone else tried one?

Michael � Appreciate the direct and concise answer on the 33's. Glad I "got em".

Farfel � Enjoyed your analysis today. Shows how much truth can be said in satire. Concur on the Poster of the Day.

Regarding the possible sale of IMF gold to "reduce under developed countries debt". I believe that the IMF wants these countries to be in such chaos so their economies can be controlled. Much the same way Herr Klinton has divided and fractionalized the American people and to build his base of support on single issue groups and groups in his "debt."

You can bet that if these debts are eliminated, the IMF will be first in line to loan them the money over again. The money will naturally be stolen by the elite few, and none will reach the intended. How long will the taxpayers fall for this IMF theft? A long time.

Remember Newt's statement before the budget cave in last fall " I will be damned if that French communist will get another dollar." Congress then turns over 18 billion dollars right out of yours and my pockets to save the Brazilian economy. The Brazilians were so grateful they allowed their currency to float. How can I get an IMF loan?

Usul
(03/17/1999; 01:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3481)
EU Commissioners Resigned
In my view, this is the best outcome. If the report of the panel of independent experts accusing them of "losing control of the huge Brussels bureaucracy and turning a blind eye to widespread fraud and cronyism" had been followed by inaction and resistance on the part of those commissioners who were singled out, then the loss of confidence and trust that would entail would be bad for the euro. With this complete "spring cleaning" the markets can now look forward to a fresh start with the alleged rotten core completely replaced. As long as this proceeds well, the euro should do as well as is justified by the economic fundamentals (which may be a different story). One must also hope that any rottenness in the lower echelons can be dealt with expeditiously.
Incidentally, I sat next to one of those EU commissioners having a hair cut once, in a part of London, in 1997; how ironic that the whole lot has now gone for a "hair cut"...
Clint H
(03/17/1999; 02:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3482)
US$ vs Euro for oil

Did someone actually say that the Oil Cartel is going to start the heavy switch from the Dollar to the Euro on July 1? It seemed to me that FOA and Another were pretty calm about what is about to happen to the all-powerful dollar. Would this not truly establish the Euro? Can they afford a collapse of the Euro and a continuation of the US$?

Can a Noble Knight enlighten us Squires?
SteveH
(03/17/1999; 04:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3483)
Arpil gold now $284.30...
eom
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 05:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3484)
An aside to Farfel; an answer for Quixote
Farfel (3/16/99; Msg ID:3471) "Emperor Nicholas II sent to Britain gold ...disappeared without a trace."
It is singularly the ability of gold to contract time and space, for even I do sit here with a token element of this one-time wealth of Nicholas II...thought you might like to know at least this small portion found refuge in good hands!

Quixote (3/16/99; Msg ID:3465) "A question...gold is the ultimate currency...based on the premise that people are rational enough to recognize this unique value of gold. ... people are idiots ... What if they remain content, even patriotic, about fiat currencies?"

You must surely have a keen eye for windmills, as it seems you have only just now arrived from La Mancha. Welcome to this Round Table, Sir Don.
Your question is a fair one for consideration, recognizing that we do not live in this world alone. You, in particular, would know "all that glitters isn't gold", and you point out that perhaps the masses see much that glitters but they fail to make the distinction. "Where is the value in gold, if not found in the eye of the beholder?" you seem to be asking.

There is a full conversation to be had whether people choose to use fiat currency, or whether they have it forced upon them. I would suggest that the "forcing" need amount to little more than media propaganda--for which we certainly have no lack. When faced with an uncomfortable, unfamiliar, or uncertain situation, the typical response is to grasp onto anything offered close-at-hand having the semblance of security...just as the drowning man will clutch for the blade of a sword.

Consider this, also. It is said there is no need to lock the prison doors in Siberia. Once the Govt gets you there, their tough job is done. So it is with fiat currency. As the memory of freedom dims, the people grow content, perhaps even thankful(!) for the easy availability of this Govt institution.

Patriotic about fiat currencies? As "Our money is better than your money?" My impression is that the patriotism you suggest is something akin to the "Buy Bonds!" propaganda of the World War II era. I might say that much has since changed, and the price to be paid for bonds today is too high for nothing in return!

As we must operate among the larger population, with a view toward the future of gold we must ask your question "What is to be expected?" Take comfort in this, if nothing else; this same large population of "regrettable mentality" shares also the mentality of the herd. Where independent thought and action does not currently impel them to buy gold, neither are they in the position to sell it. These people do not affect the value of gold, and their perception of value is what they are shown it to be. The value of gold is set (and shown) for all the world by only those few of us who take an active interest in its exchange with that which functions as the popular medium-of-exchange (such as the U.S. dollar).

There is much current talk of price manipulation. When you consider the mechanics of trade, you will come to the conclusion that only for temporary, unstable periods may gold be 'priced' lower than the value at which the goldhearts perceive its value. In the free market, would-be sellers want the highest price, those who truly value gold won't sell but will continue to acquire at any price of paper, and those with no interest play no role in the market. The current phenomenon of institutional short-sellers overwhelming the market to cause a price depression has an unwinding that will wreak havoc to the up side...(unless they achieve the impossible by permanently "breaking the backs and spirits" of all those who would hold gold to a higher value). Factor in the "herd mentality" of a greed/panic driven population in the face of boldly rising gold prices, and I believe you will have the answer you seek. Good day to you, Sir Don of La Mancha!

got gold?
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 06:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3485)
To all who ponder IMF gold sales
There is more here than meets the eye!
If the need is to raise money for assistance of weak nations, you need only recall that modern money is easily created through the act of making a loan. If there is need for money, granting a loan is the natural solution.

Selling gold would only alter the form of IMF reserves from metal to paper. The member countries would still retain their proportional claim on these IMF held reserves. The gold sale would not raise any new money/value that they do not already hold, it would only reshuffle existing money...money that the current owner would prefer to exchange for IMF-held gold.
At the end of the day, would the IMF then GIVE the paper reserves to the weak nations? Or would they grant a loan? And if they granted a loan...why the need for the gold/reserve shuffle? As I mentioned at the start, this is the modern world of fractional lending and fiat currency, after all. The reason that is given for the sale justifies nothing...a ruse for a different purpose.

Yes, there is more here than meets the eye!
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 07:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3486)
IMF
Do not fear the boogie man of IMF gold sales. The proceeds of any such sales would never even be seen by the banks of the nations whose currencies have been wrecked by American hedge funds. No, that money would go almost directly to the big European and American banks that hold the debt of those weak nations. Once again the lesson will be "go ahead, make all the bad loans you wish, we will bail you out".

It is unfortunate, this proclivity for subsidizing bad business practices. It is also highly inflationary.
USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 08:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3487)
Today's Gold Market Update: IMF Gold Sales: The Mouse That Roared
For some reason I can't fetch today's report over to the Daily Market Report page so I'm hoping most will come over to read it.

Gold is up $1.70 at $284.80.

MARKET UPDATE (3/17/99) Having had a day to digest the Clinton announcement that he favored International Monetary Fund gold sales, the gold market reacted this morning to this news as no news and continued on its merry way with little notice. Despite heavy financial press ministrations attempting to drive the price lower, gold reacted pretty much the way it did during the mid-1970s when heavy gold sales by the United States and the IMF (nearly 1200 tons) did little but help fuel gold's frantic rally from the $100 level to well over $800 per ounce. The number bandied about this time are substantially smaller -- about 150 tons worth less than $1.5 billion, a small drop in a very large bucket of third world debt.
Two questions come quickly to mind: First, will the world's finance ministries allow a sale of their gold to bail out Wall Street's largest banks? Second, wouldn't it be wiser to get out of gold's way let it double or triple and then sell it to finance third economic immersion?
Gold's no-account behavior must distress people like Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton and their cronies in the leftist British government (which also favors IMF gold sales and has been beating that drum for longer than I can remember.) But the fact of the matter is that we still must have a vote on the issue. In fact we must have a number of votes on the issue, and the wily markets have now digested that small piece of political reality. It rosters like this: Congress must approve how the U.S. votes its 18% of the IMF votes. Similarly, the German government voiced opposition to the sales and said the German central banks would have to approve. The Bundesbank has repeatedly voiced disapproval of such sales labeling them a "scheme" at one point. The Japanese said that such sales need be approached "cautiously." Then you have the IMF vote itself which is not likely to occur for another year at the next big IMF conclave. So when you strip all the press rhetoric away from it, this latest round of anti-gold publicity has all the ferocity of the mouse that roared.
I will leave you with this quote from Grant's Interest Rate Observer which fits nicely with today's upside action despite the latest attacks on the yellow metal:
"Thus counting the euro, which has stumbled out of the gate (much to the satisfaction of the Continent's social democratic politicians, who regard a soft exchange rate as the next best thing to lower interest rates), two out of three major currencies are in downtrends. Some of the minor currencies are in flames. Yet the monetary asset that competes directly with the currencies is quoted near its 19-year low in U.S. dollar terms. We return to gold because the bullion bear market is even more self-satisfied, cocksure and overreaching than it was when we wrote about it last fall. It is a unique bear market."
We gold advocates are a hard headed lot and Grant describes us well. One final thought, then the day moves on: We have already had a dose of the Asian contagion in this country. It was called the 1970s. It is no coincidence to me that this talk of IMF gold sales would come now with the money supply soaring and the oil producing countries coming together to reduce oil output. That was what induced the IMF/U.S. gold sales in the 1970s. Could these events be unwittingly signaling a breakout? Don't forget bull market must scale a wall of worry in order to be born.
That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if anything of interest develops.
The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue, cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.
Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the newsletter.
PH in LA
(03/17/1999; 08:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3488)
IMF Gold Sale Threats
Aragorn III:

What, in your opinion, would be the "ruse for a different purpose" in all these smoke and mirror threats to "sell" the IMF's gold. After all, and as you say, if debt relief for poorer nations were really a priority, it would be easier to just "donate" some fiat currency created out of nothing for that express purpose.

Could it not more likely be an initial step in disbanding the IMF system while there is still time? for some obscure (at least to me) reason? For that would seem the likely outcome of such a move.

Unless such pronouncements are intended only as smoke and mirrors designed for spooking the herd. In which case such "gold sales" for that dubious "purpose" will never actually take place, will they?
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 13:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3489)
sadus, backlash, Phantom
Thanks, guys. I look forward to learning more about the predictions of these two sages. (Sorry I did not respond to your posts sooner. For some reason I had trouble getting into the castle last night).
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 13:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3490)
A Prediction
I am absolutely worthless at day to day predictions, but I'll make this one, anyway. Finally, tomorrow(I think), the CPI will be behind us. Then, good numbers or bad, the coast will be clear for the next recovery in gold. One of these days, very soon, I believe we will get the real thing. Meantime let's just call this market "Basel".

By the way, if you want to add a nice diversification to your portfolio...how 'bout Japanese stocks. As Japan reliquifies, their market should recover just like gold. You can quote me, if you like.

TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 13:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3491)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold, Silver Steady After Mon.-tues. Fall

New York-March 17-FWN--Gold and silver futures managed
to stop their recent tumbles, consolidating today and
ending the session little changed.
April gold futures dropped sharply on Monday after
French President Jacques Chirac suggested International
Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sales may be necessary to provide
debt relief to poor countries. Then gold tumbled some more
on Tuesday after President Clinton also made similar
comments that IMF gold sales may be needed for debt
forgiveness.
May silver, meanwhile, fell the last couple of days on
lower lease rates and in the aftermath of a weekend
Berkshire Hathaway report offering no clues on the company's
129.7 million-ounce stake in the silver market that was
announced in February of 1998.
But today, both metals finished with little change.
April gold added 20 cents to $284.10, and May silver dipped
a mere 0.3 cent to $5.04.
Glenn Toth, director of operations for Commodity
Resource Corp., said both metals appeared to be
consolidating in ranges.
A gold floor trader said the gold market was choppy,
with some players moving from the April to the June
contract.
The market ticked higher to $285.70 this morning, with
a couple of traders at the time commenting that it was
getting a slight bounce from a possible oversold condition
after a steep fall on Monday and Tuesday.
From the highs, however, some trade selling emerged,
another floor contact said.
"But there is really not a whole lot going on," this
floor contact noted. "We're basically stuck in a range here.
It's been very quiet."
After the Clinton and Chirac comments, Toth said he
suspects there likely will be sales of IMF gold.
"But that will be a long-term thing," he said. "With
the committees they're dealing with, it will take a long,
long time."
In the meantime, he characterized the gold and silver
markets as "demoralized."
"The gold and silver had some momentum going for them
(recently), and now that's been pretty much punctured."
Toth put support for May silver at Tuesday's $4.9550
low and support for April gold at Tuesday's $282 low. Both
markets fell so far, so quickly, that they may have to
establish a trading range before meaningful upside
resistance can be pegged, he continued.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
turbohawg
(03/17/1999; 14:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3492)
USAGOLD
Michael, your post yesterday brought a couple of things to mind.

Regarding the fact that in the '30's many lost their saving in bank failures ... My 82 y.o. great aunt, who I mentioned awhile back as one who lived thru the Depression and is old enough to recognize again the signs that led up to it, has a vivid memory of her father pacing the floor crying when he lost his life savings, $400, in the failure of a small bank in Arkansas. She's been warning her family that it could happen again, but they don't seem to be taking it too seriously.

Regarding Robert Prechter's ultra-bearish gold forecast ... As you know, Elliott Wavers always have alternate counts. One of Prechter's, and I believe it's his top alternate but I'm not currently where I can reference "At the Crest ..." , has gold at or near a bottom. Additionally, he's said that once gold makes it's bottom, it will be the buy of a lifetime and will never see that price again. If I were contemplating investing in gold for the first time, I don't think I would wait to see if Prechter's top count is the right one.
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3493)
Assorted Bridge Gold News
Berne--Mar 17--The Swiss Upper House today approved a modified bill that
would free 1,300 tonnes of excess gold reserves for sale, but, because of the
modification, the bill has to return to the Lower House for reconsideration.
This means a parliamentary consensus between the two houses has to be found
before the bill is put to the people in a referendum. Bridge News, Story .13270

Tokyo--Mar 17--Although bearish sentiment continued to dominate the market,
spot gold stabilized on light bargain-hunting and physical demand after a sharp
fall overnight, dealers said. Spot platinum was also sustained by bargain
hunting on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, they said. Story .2200

Canberra--Mar 17--Robert Guy, director of UK merchant bank NM Rothschild &
Sons Ltd., today called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to suspend gold
sales by individual central banks of member countries during a possible
gold auction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By Rieko Suda,
Bridge News, Story .26458

Washington--Mar 16--Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reaffirmed
today that the US economy, though very strong, appears "stretched in a
number of dimensions," which implies "considerable upside and downside
risks" to the US economic outlook. Greenspan, who was addressing the
Independent Bankers Association of America, attributed the
"accomplishments" of the domestic economy to influences that "may prove
transitory," but they are also tied to "a number of fundamental strengths"
indicating "more lasting benefits." By Edward Kean and Anne Maitrepierre,
Bridge News, Story .20005

Washington--Mar 16--President Bill Clinton today reiterated the long-
held US policy of supporting International Monetary Fund gold sales to help
ease poor nations' debt burdens. Clinton made the remark about gold during
a speech at the State Department concerning Africa. By Richard Cowan,
Bridge News, Story .19121

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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beesting
(03/17/1999; 14:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3494)
Does anyone beside me think there is a news blackout in progress?
Goldpark China(GKT.TO) a small Chinese mining company 36,057,500 shares had some coverage on a Yahoo news release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/zk.html
This company trades between .025 cents and .15 cents a share.My question is,why only negitive news concerning Gold and Gold Mining? I know we covered this before on this forum,but it's beginning to be to obvious.I haven't seen promotion of Gold anywhere except the Gold forums.After all this time some Country's haven't figured out yet that adding to Gold reserves strengthens currency's, selling Gold reserves weakens currency's.Look at past charts that show this.I guess I'm naive.Buy and hold Gold at bargain prices,is the word of the day..............beesting
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3495)
The World of TresSec Rubin
HEADLINE: Rubin warns Congress against debt limit curbs --March 17 (Reuters)

TresSec Robert Rubin say the option must be left available to create gobs of new money to counter recession. You must read this one!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/2j.html

HEADLINE: Rubin-global woes pose risk to U.S. economy--March 17 (Reuters)

Seeking stability...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/ps.html

HEADLINE: Rubin not attending APEC Malaysia meeting-Treasury--March 17 (Reuters)

Rumors of Rubin's retirement...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/u3.html
beesting
(03/17/1999; 14:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3496)
Lets start a positive rumer.
NEWS FLASH: The eccentric billionaire Scrooge McDuck announced today March 17,1999 that he is buying huge amounts of Gold at bargain basement prices to add to his overall long term wealth.When asked why he was doing this his reply was:How did I get so wealthy in the first place,answer,buy when everyone else is selling,and sell when everyone else is buying,and don't tell anyone else what I'm doing.Mr.McDuck has moved his operation offshore.The Hobbits helped me compose this.............beesting
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3497)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Apr gold steady amid Rubin comments
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 17--COMEX Apr gold futures settled up 20c at $284.10 per
ounce, steadying after Tuesday's slump to 6 1/2 month low. Gold stayed inside
Tuesday's range and showed little reaction to comments today by Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin. Rubin reiterated comments US president Bill Cliton's
made Tuesday, suggesting that the International Monetary Fund should sell gold
to help poor nations.
* * *
Rubin said that the IMF is expected to sell 5-10 million ounces of gold, or
about 5% of its gold holdings (story .20796) and noted that swapping some gold
for interest bearing notes would not hurt the IMF's credit status (story
.19799).
Gold sales to help fund debt relief for poor nations would be conducted to
minimize market impact and would require US congressional approval, Rubin said
(story .18961).
Whether congress agrees remains to be seen, although it does throw some
doubt into the whole IMF gold sales issue, said one trader. While a potential
congressional roadblock could be supportive for gold "it doesn't seem to be
reacting to upside news right now," said another trader. He noted that Rubin's
comments on the whole were probably quite bearish, but noted that the negativity
had already been priced into the market during Apr's "rather overdone" $3.70
slide Tuesday.
While today's gold price volatility was low, market players noted that there
was some reasonably heavy volume from dealers establishing new positions after
Tuesday's frenzied activity. "The market was dominated by good liquidity from
bank-type dealers but there was little outside customer action," said one
trader.
Some traders noted that after its big selloff Tuesday, gold may creep
higher, especially given that Apr crude futures settled up 59c at $15.05 per
barrel after hitting a 4 1/2 month high of $15.15.
"The energy market is perking up, the CRB is up--this could affect the [US
producer price index] next month and if gold spikes down this month it could be
a buy next month," said one trader.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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Aristotle
(03/17/1999; 14:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3498)
Improvement of a good idea
beesting, dump "eccentric" from your newsflash (replace with "respected") and your idea is huge winner. ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 14:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3499)
Question:
The German government says it is in favor of selling IMF gold but will accede in this regard to the wishes of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank. Bundesbank officials are against selling IMF gold.

Now that Robert Rubin Bill Clinton have revealed their support for selling IMF gold (in concert with the leftists of both Continental Europe and Britain), what says the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve?
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 15:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3500)
Smoot Hawley, Here We Come
Well, now they've done it. This afternoon, our venerable Congress voted import restrictions on steel. To those who struggle with the subject of economics, please place your eyeballs up very close to your screen: IT'S LIKE THEY JUST ANNOUNCED, "HEY, LET'S ALL PAY MORE FOR STEEL!"

MULTO INFLOTS-EE-OWE-NAY!

After hours gold trading indicates large buy orders being placed by Huey, Dewey and Louie!
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 15:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3501)
beesting started it !!
RUMOR
Today 3/17/99 the famous retired babyboomer rock stars, Huey, Dewey and Louie, grandnephews of the "respected" sage Scrouge McDuck
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 15:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3502)
after I was interrupted !
Huey, Dewey and Louie announced that they have doubled their percentage of mining stocks and sold off the likes of ebAY, Amozon, and the CiscoKid. Lifted with approval from the "HOBBITVILLE Rag".
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 15:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3503)
Public Information from the Fed Reserve Board
Remarks by Governor Edward W. Kelley, Jr.
Y2K and public confidence in the banking system
Before the Media Studies Center, New York, New York
March 10, 1999

"...I have reached the conclusion that, now that the country is at last aggressively addressing the problem, the most important single element in our successfully navigating through the challenges presented by the "millennium bug" is how the public responds to it. There are very few places in our national life where the statement that "attitude can affect outcomes" is so compellingly demonstrated as in the banking sector, particularly as we work to address Y2K."

"You will no doubt agree that the best way to engender a strong and positive public attitude is through open and candid discussion, which I would like to encourage by briefly addressing three key questions. First, what are the critical components of public confidence in the banking system, and how are the industry, its regulators, and the central bank working to earn public trust in the Y2K context? Second, what are we confident about and what are we concerned about? When the media assesses the financial risk element of the Y2K story, these may be appropriate places to start. And finally, what do we hope the media will do in the coming months? "

"...let me spend a moment on my thoughts about what the media might consider as this story is reported over the next 10 months... There is much work to be done in local communities and we hope the media will be a powerful voice in urging the public to seek legitimate information, maintain perspective, and act with common sense. Suggest calm attentiveness to preparations. Provide "how to" pointers and advice. Focus on contingency planning. Suggest and highlight sensible actions by small businesses. Encourage community leadership. Promote education about the problem. Hold opinion leaders and public services providers accountable for accurate, consistent flows of information. Accept that certain things are unknowable and do not agonize over that -- we deal with uncertainties every day without loss of confidence. If glitches occur or problems loom, report fully on them of course, but make sure to place the problem in an appropriate context. Balance and perspective are key.
Y2K gives reporters an extraordinary opportunity to do what they do best -- learn the facts, weigh the evidence, and inform the public. You have a nation of attentive readers and listeners who very much trust your expertise, and who will prepare for the rollover with your perspective in mind. Complete and reliable information is every bit as important to our country's success in preparing for Y2K as is all of the technical work that is being done."
-------------------------
This coaching comes as no surprise. Can you imagine a similar discussion (or many!) with the media many years ago to coach them how to report on monetary and gold stories? Can you see how it might evolve over time to what we have now with reporting of gold and public perception?
A sudden leveling of the playing field would price gold beyond your savings.
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 16:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3504)
Kaplan's prognostication
Gold Mining Outlook
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com.
by Steven Jon KaplanBack
Updated @ 5:00 p.m. EST, Wednesday, March 17, 1999

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Following a major bottom for gold, as may have been seen at 10:09 Tuesday morning, when gold shares stage a major rally, it often begins at 11:20 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday. Also, look for the stock market to crash early Monday morning as dreams of Dow ten thousand turn to dust. Stay tuned.
-----
SURE hope he is correct!
<;-)
AEL
(03/17/1999; 19:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3505)
attitude and outcome
Re Aragorn's #3503: Edward Kelley:
"There are very few places in our national life where the statement that 'attitude can affect outcomes' is so compellingly demonstrated as in the banking sector, particularly as we work to address Y2K."

Attitudes can indeed affect outcomes. Let's all maintain a proper Positive Mental Attitude. Or, as Gary North quipped (he DOES have a mordant way with words): Think and fix code!

But there is more to it than that. Kelley is of course (and entirely justifiably) scared about a massive loss of confidence in the banking system which is, after all, afloat shearly on account of confidence. So, naturally enough, he wants to frame things now in such a way as to suggest that those who are without confidence (or those who might lose confidence) are the CAUSE of the upcoming banking problems/collapse. In this connection I ran into a brilliant little tidbit on a Y2K board, for which I wish I could take credit. Keep these points in mind in the coming months, as Kelley is joined by a legion of other victim-blamers:

Y2k "panic" (enlightened self-interest and personal responsibility
for oneself and one's dependents) cannot cause "bank failure"
any more than passengers leaving a bus all at once can cause bus
failure. If a system is DESIGNED so that it can be felled by a rumor,
or by a free choice for non-participation that ever and always
exists, then you cannot blame the participants. One thing that
doesn't work about my bus analogy: a bus is usually a non-profit,
public utility. All banks, even the "Federal" reserve, are private,
profit-making ventures. Why should I be responsible for taking my
money out of the bank? Am I responsible for the failure of a
restaurant because I decide to eat at home? A store because I cease
to shop there? Vast fortunes, obscene profits, are made in banking,
which has been described, accurately, as "a license to print money."
Bankers control economies, sap wealth from poor to rich nations, use
their enormous power to interfere in public policy and "manage" the
democratic process. Don't tell me I need to "have faith" in THAT.
-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 04, 1999.
(http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Sl9)

YO!



USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 19:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3506)
The Latest from Gary North, Just Received
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

In January and February, there was a run on gold
coins, especially tenth ounce American eagles. The U.S.
Mint began rationing gold coins to wholesalers. Then,
without warning, the panic buying ceased.

It ceased about the time that the Senate's Special
Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem released its
report (March 2). The report is dated February 24. A
preliminary draft was released to the press that week.
Then Senators Dodd and Bennett made the rounds on the TV
news forums on February 28. They presented the Party
Line:

1. Prepare for a hurricane, not a collapse
2. Foreign nations will have big problems
3. U.S. electrical power is safe
4. The health care industry will have problems
5. Small businesses will have problems

In short, Y2K is going to be a problem, but not a
catastrophe in the U.S.

The report is less optimistic than the statements of
Bennett and Dodd. It summarizes the testimony that has
been presented to the committee over the past ten months.
What we learn is that there are big problems that must be
solved, and there is not much independently verified
evidence that these problems have been solved.

As for the argument that foreign nations -- Japan,
China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Germany -- will
have big problems, this is hardly comforting. These are
our major trading partners. If they cease exporting goods
to us, the U.S. economy will take a major hit in 2000 and
beyond. The international division of labor is far more
extensive today than it was in 1930. Yet a reduction of
world trade in 1930 led to the Great Depression.

Because you are on top of Y2K, you already know this.
The public does not. Your friends and neighbors cannot
hear the message for the noise. The message they hear is
colored by the spin that a frightened government is putting
on it. They do not want to hear that the days of wine and
roses are about to end. They do not want to believe that
their futures are going to be hard, the way things were
hard in the 1930's -- or worse.

When the great fear comes in 2000, the euphoria that
is universal in the U.S. today will evaporate. A great
fear will paralyze people. We are not familiar with this
level of fear. We have read Franklin Roosevelt's
rhetorical line, "We have nothing to fear but . . . fear
itself." We forget that this was nonsense in 1933, that
there was a great deal to fear: loss of a job, 6,000
bankrupt banks, lost homes, lost dreams, and an economy
that would not recover. It was terrible. Year after year,
it would not recover. The Roaring Twenties had not
prepared people for this.

We have had over four decades of roaring. We have not
lived in fear. There have been recessions and setbacks,
but nothing like the despair of the 1930's.

How do we prepare ourselves psychologically for a
decade of depression? How can we imagine it? It is beyond
our experience.

That's what I have been trying to do personally: get
prepared mentally. I moved out of a lovely home on a
suburban street. I moved to the sticks. I have bought
grains. I have sunk wells. I have restructured my life
and my finances on the assumption that the banks will not
make the deadline, that the welfare State will end.

Meanwhile, those around us are convinced that the
stock market will make them rich. It is not easy to keep
my mind focused on what I know to be true: Y2K is systemic.


THE ONLY RELEVANT COUNTER-ARGUMENT

I have heard them all: "they" will fix Y2K, American
ingenuity never fails, the free market can be trusted, the
stock market has not discounted it, this or that company is
compliant, it will be fixed on failure.

There is only one counter-argument that impresses me,
and I have not seen many critics use it: the y2k glitch is
not substantial. The erroneous century computation is too
limited to affect the vast majority of functions in
computer systems. Thus, y2k will hit, but almost nothing
will go wrong. Systems will not fail.

To persuade me, this argument would have to come from
mainframe programmers and electrical engineers working with
embedded chips. The rest of us are not skilled enough to
know. The problem is, the programmers are divided on the
question of the degree of disruption we can expect. Most
of them live in cities. Most are still on the job. But a
few have left town. They are scared.

Programmer Cory Hamasaki goes out on weekends to a
friend's ranch and works in the fields. In return, he has
been promised a corner of a cabin if y2k hits so hard that
the Washington, D.C. area becomes unlivable. Here is a
self-professed middle-aged man who is spending weekends
doing hard labor because he thinks he needs a fall-back
position.

He is not sure that y2k will shut down society. He is
sure that it will shut down computers in the nation's
government. He is not sure how big y2k will be. But he is
sure that it cannot be fixed.

I submit this to you as the rational position: it will
not be fixed. You must make your plans on this assumption.
I have been saying this since late 1996. I have not
changed my mind.

If the century date problem is not a major problem for
accounting and time-sensitive operations, then we need
programmers -- a lot of them -- to come before Congress and
show why this is so. But no such programmer has testified
so far.

Now, how bad will it be? I look at Citicorp's y2k
budget of $800 million to $925 million, and I conclude:
somebody in high places thinks y2k will be a big, big
problem if not fixed. Senior managers do not spend this
kind of money on small problems.

Most businessmen are not spending anything like this.
That is why Y2K will be disruptive in so many places. But
will it shut down entire industries? I look at the
division of labor, tied to just-in-time production and
just-in-time distribution, and I conclude: yes.

Yet almost every economist says it will be a bump in
the road. They are masters of studying the division of
labor and the price system, and they think things will be
fine. But they are not Austrian School economists. They
think in terms of a world that is self-regulating, a
machine. They do not understand that entrepreneurs can
make simultaneous mistakes, they way they did in the
1920's, investing in projects that could not be sustained
in the 1930's.

I contend that Y2K is such an overlooked error, one
that is not really believed even when it is known to exist.
This is why we see a rising U.S. stock market and gold
below $290.

The free market is not a self-correcting machine. It
is a social institution. This social institution is
subject to the mythologies of the era. If men believe that
prosperity is forever, that the stock market will grow at
10% per annum, decade after decade, when economic growth is
2% to 3% per annum, then they will not act in terms of a
threat to that compounding.

Y2K is a threat to compound growth because it is a
threat to the information system. It is a knife aimed at
the heart of an information society. It will foul the
data. It will make data unreliable. It will make
mandatory the independent verification of all digital data.
That will be like the Luddite's shoe in the 18th century
machine.

Y2K is the ultimate Luddite. This is how we had
better view it. A Frenchman's shoe (sabat, as in saboteur)
would shut down a production line temporarily. That will
be Y2K's effect: a million shoes tossed into a million
machines, shutting down a million supply lines.

These supply lines are our life-support systems.
Cities cannot do without them. The economy's warehouses
today are 18-wheelers. Shut them down for a month, and the
economy of the cities will die.

This is unthinkable. That's why your neighbors refuse
to think about it. There is no way for 100 million
households to prepare for the shutting down of the
production lines. The supply lines are stretched out
today. They are full. That is why the system is so
efficient. There is no slack. It is not possible for 100
million U.S. families to increase their purchases of
anything by 50%. To attempt to shift from buying new cars
to buying beans and rice would bankrupt the auto industry
and create riots in Sam's Club and Costco stores.

This is the grim reality of every society: society
cannot change except slowly. An individual can change
radically only if he changes alone or nearly alone. If he
is accompanied by millions of others, social institutions
will break down.

If half the population decided to go to church next
Sunday, they could not do it. There would be no room.
Even in Boston in 1660 -- the Puritan era -- church
buildings could accommodate less than a third of the city's
population. If we had mass revival next Saturday, the
churches would have to go to round-the-clock worship on
Sunday. The streets would be jammed, the parking lots
full. Most people could not get in.

Individuals can change their resource allocations
radically overnight only if very few of them attempt this.
This is the great Catch-22 of Y2K. The worse Y2K is, the
more sure is the Catch-22. There will be chaos. This has
been my message since late 1996. Don't be in the middle of
it. It will be bad enough on the fringes.

People will not believe the threat of Y2K because they
inherently recognize the truth of social stasis. A society
cannot adjust smoothly to a shutdown of its supply lines.
This is why the press last week dutifully cited John
Koskinen and the Federal Reserve System's Edward Kelley,
Jr., when they said not to stock up on medicines, food, and
currency. To do so as a nation is impossible. The just-
in-time supply lines would not tolerate it. To attempt it
today would bring panic tomorrow and gridlock the day after
tomorrow. People would discover that there is no way that
all of them can stock up.


THE DILEMMA OF DEMOCRACY

The democratic mind set says that if bad things must
happen to most people, good things are illegitimate for a
minority. This is why we have graduated income taxes and
heavy inheritance taxes.

In wartime, societies adopt rationing. The free
market's principle of allocation -- high bid wins -- is not
acceptable when it's a survival issue. In a lifeboat, the
high bid does not win. Majority vote wins -- or two people
with guns.

If Y2K is a life-and-death issue, then high bids will
not be allowed to win. We will have rationing and martial
law. People will demand this. The government is getting
ready for this.

This is why Y2K threatens long-run supplies. The free
market is what encourages increases in output and efficient
production. Martial law does not, since it is a form of
socialism.

The day that most people know that their lives are at
risk, the free market will become the black market. Theft
will begin, whether government-run or private. Social
order will break down when the division of labor breaks
down.

We no longer live in a society marked by self-
government and patience. We are a nation of short-run
people. That is why our savings rate is so low. In some
communities, law and order will prevail, but these
communities will be small. The more impersonal the
community, the more at risk it will be.

That is why you must begin to create community. But
people will think you are nuts. That is why I moved to the
country. I live in a small community. Some of the
neighbors think I'm crazy. I have been written up in two
regional newspapers as a Y2K survivalist. A reporter from
Houston knocked at my door last Saturday trying to get a
"Y2K survivalist kook in the sticks" story. Neighbors had
directed her to me. (My wife sent her away.)

Communities will be created in urban areas, but at the
expense of larger neighborhoods. People will park cars in
streets to block entrance into them, the same way the
Yonkers experiment has done with street-blocking pillars.
Crime will go down immediately. Community bonds will be
formed. But traffic patterns will get disrupted. Of
course, if gasoline is being rationed, that's nothing
crucial.

Your problem will be that you own assets. Are you
going to be a target for your neighbors? You must work to
create the awareness that your assets are a benefit to them
apart from their violence. For example, if you have a
solar panel, buy a solar battery charger and spend $200
on rechargeable batteries. Hand them out in 2000, or offer
to charge your neighbors' existing batteries for free.
Your solar panel is now worth defending.

Re-charge car batteries that can be used to operate CB
units. Your community will need communication. Hand-held
walkie-talkies, such as the Motorola Talkabout, are
important. Buy several of them.

By the way, buy your panels now. The supply lines are
getting very tight, even for British Petroleum panels. I
think they will be unavailable by early July. One company
that sells simple solar systems is Solar Extreme
(http://www.solarextreme.com).


DON'T GO BY YOUR STOMACH

People are not worried about Y2K today. This can
change -- will change -- in late 1999. Then you will be
facing the supply lines problem. You must have bought AND
INSTALLED your equipment by then. Skilled labor is scarce
now; it will be unavailable then.

When people get scared, supply lines will dry up. The
fact that you have doubts today about the severity of Y2K
is what gives you a short head start. You must act against
your stomach if your brain says that there is no reasonable
way out.

The less you feel like spending money to defend
yourself against Y2K's effects, the more preparations you
should make. Use your brain to overcome your emotions. If
you feel calm, take steady, systematic action. You must
allocate time and money each week. Steady as you go.

You will have to start sprinting in September.

END
Peter Asher
(03/17/1999; 20:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3507)
Michael
I've thought of Gary North as the extreme alarmist of Y2K, but barring extensive public perception of a non-event, (whether valid or not) this current essay is flawless
sheople
(03/17/1999; 23:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3508)
Hello, we've finally arrived.
Somebody peed in the punchbowl on Wall Street, where does the flock have to queue up to buy gold? Shepherds Rubin and Clinton are leading us to the promised land.
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 23:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3509)
RE: Last Post
MK there you are --- the Sheople have arrived !!! please take numbers and stay in que.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 01:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3510)
AEL & USAGOLD
Somehow we managed to function very well independently to create a 1-2-3 punch toward some degree of monetary/Y2K awareness yesterday afternoon. A pleasure to watch the puzzle pieces applied by many hands to complete the picture for all to view.
The 3506 post by USAGOLD is theoretically and philosphically directly on the mark. It is required reading for all. Though skeptics may scoff, the precarious design of operations and infrastructure remains true with or without exacerbations of Y2K.

Beware holding the type of money, easily printed, that may be tossed about in bundles by Governments attempting the easy and popular *solution* to such a nationwide problem.

got gold?
Mooski
(03/18/1999; 02:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3511)
Uff da - I hope this works...:)
Evenin!

I've been lurking for a few months, broke down and got me a password so that I can join in the discussion. By no means do I feel 'justified' to sit at the table, but just to offer my opinion from the sides.

(Small background: Cobol programmer, dozen or so years of experience, been working Y2K for the past 2 years, have my body weight in rice, soup and tuna stocked up...;)

I firmly believe that we are in a dual exchange rate for gold. There's the spot price, (hovering btwn 283-290, sit, stay, roll over. Good boy.) and the price that you and me pay for actual, physical gold.

Note the growing difference btwn spot and let's say 1oz American Eagles. That difference will grow the closer we get to Y2K. (And grow quite healthy to boot...)

The 'Central Bankers' will do whatever they can to keep gold within a very thin trading range, since 99.44% of the 'sheeple' pay attention (however limited) to the spot price of gold, but they will be unable to control the 'actual retail price' of physical gold.

And as more 'sheeple' wake up to the true laws of supply vs demand, the 'real' price will increase, WHILE THE SPOT PRICE REMAINS A NEAR CONSTANT.

Just my $.02, I've been wrong before. (I've got North Carolina beating UCLA to go the championship game...:(
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 04:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3512)
OIL
Oil prices are now up 50% in less than two months, more when measured in euros.

We watch this IN-FLOTS-EE-OWE-NAY together, no?
SteveH
(03/18/1999; 04:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3513)
Add your name to and send this letter...
to your Congressperson:

http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/cgi-bin/buildpage.cgi?state=ny (or whatever state you are in)

feel free to edit the letter to suit your taste.

Dear Congressman Saxton,

I am a shareholder in a gold mining company and (Put State or Country here) taxpayer. Recent events give me reason to believe that the price of gold is being manipulated to keep it under $297, which is at or below the cost of production. It doesn't take much to figure that out. As a technical trader (using statistics to trade) I see that the POG defies all attempts at analysis. Any other commodity or stock would not show a continued and repeated ceiling as gold does, it is statistically not possible. Upon further review it would seem that EVERY time the price of gold attains the price above $295, news stories are leaked to various major news organzization that this hord or that hord of gold will be sold. Here are but a few of those stories that only come out when gold threatens to rise above $297:

-- IMF gold sales to relieve third world debt.
-- Swiss gold sales.

I am sure you are more aware than I that Goldman Sachs is in a position of an apparent conflict of interest as they are shareholders in the Federal Reserve, Secretary Rubin worked there, they allegedly hold some third world debt, and they are reported to be one of the major forces behind the gold "shorting" that recently knocked the price of gold from $295 to $281 in two short days, when it had taken 11 days to rise to that level. Could it be that they are staunch supporters of IMF gold sales too?

Background. Pundits estimate that there is a three-year gold short position on world-wide commodity exchanges. In other words, three years of production from all gold mines in the world are known or suspected to be shorted on these exchanges (annual gold production is around 2300 tons). That means that should gold rise to a price of $320 per ounce on these exchanges that the worlds largest "short squeeze" would force all of this gold to be covered, a physical impossibility and one that would cause the price of gold to rise sky high (your guess is as good as mine as to how high that would be, $1000/oz?). It also means that should only a small fraction of these futures players take physical delivery of their contracts, the exchanges' deposits of gold would go to zero and again gold would be forced to rise. I believe this is called naked shorting as the paper doesn't equal the gold available to cover the paper should that need to occur.

One has to ask, how can this been allowed to happen? Obviously, it explains why the manipulators would want to keep the lid on gold. The act of naked shorting and market manipulation is illegal; they wouldn't be in the fix they are in if this activity had been stopped years ago.

Next. Of late, several countries' Central Banks have been leasing gold to gold bullion banks who in turn have been selling gold into the gold market. This practice of "leasing" gold, although helping to defray the storage costs of gold and earning a small rate of return, hurts the price of gold because it represents a virtually unlimited supply of "undeliverable gold" (because the Central Banks aren't actually delivering the gold) with which gold traders can short the market. Long Term Capital (LTCM) is a recent example of where a hedge fund had shorted an alleged 400 tons (400 TONS!) of gold. As you know, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a bail out of this fund as they felt its failure would have precipitated negative repricussions in US markets.

I certainly hope the US isn't leasing gold into the market to hold the price of gold down. Are we?

Who does this activity hurt? It hurts shareholders of all gold companies. It hurts employees of these companies as it is forcing many gold mining companies to close their doors or layoff tens of thousands of workers. It hurts our country because a few large players win, while the rest of us lose. Now it has gotten out of hand.

Finally, an organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action) group has been formed by Mr. Bill Murphy (lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com). Their cause is to expose the manipulation, put a stop to it, return the gold market to a free-market, and prevent it from happening again. I support their cause and urge you to do the same. Please help put a stop to the blatant price-fixing and attempts of capping the price of gold, it is hurting me as a gold-stock investor and it is hurting our free-trade commodity system. A few benfit at the cost of many, it is wrong and you have a chance through your office to stop this abuse and expose the manipulators and to offer regulations that would prevent naked shorting of gold that put us into this mess in the first place.




Sincerly,


your name

-end-

April gold at $284.50.
YGM
(03/18/1999; 05:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3514)
@ Steve H-- Way To Go. I only wish I could put it as well.
Jim Saxton will hopefully give GATA the leg up we've
worked so hard to achieve. Now The Media!!!!
High Regards for your E-Mail: YGM.
YGM
(03/18/1999; 05:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3515)
Congressman Ron Paul--
he's the one who asked Greenspan pointedly @Humphry/
Hawkins testimony if CB's were still buying & selling Gold.
He apparently owns some Gold related business. His
answer from Greenspan is still trying to be deciphered!
He might be another candidate for your E-Mail.

http://www.house.gov/paul/mail/welcome.htm

*** Finally now "maybe" Pandoras Box gets opened.--YGM.
SteveH
(03/18/1999; 05:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3516)
April gold now (still)...
$284.50.

Here is Congressperson Saxton's email address:

Jim.Saxton@mail.house.gov

Plus don't forget to send a copy of the letter to your own Representative and Senator.
T. Remital
(03/18/1999; 07:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3517)
WORTH READING
Date: Thu Mar 18 1999 09:09
tone (u.s. problem) ID#314132:
Copyright � 1999 tone/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved




The United Weimar Republics
The next financial crisis is knocking at the door. Stock and bond markets, currencies, interest rates and hedge positions have resumed their violent churning. Governments have lost control of their currencies which are sloshing around the globe like tsunamis and Greenspan is smilingly running behind the events.

World money supply and credit expansion have skyrocketed. Even in the more conservative G7 countries M3 money supply is increasing at an average of over 10%! Since Clinton's inauguration the currency in circulation in the USA has grown with 80%. Financial discipline has gone out of the window. Money corrupted the politicians and the politicians corrupted money. By flooding the economy with liquidity and cheap credit, tax collection is booming, budget deficits reduced and still enough left for the starving politicians to squander. What a financial paradise!

But just consider for a moment, that the US national debt in 1998 was US$364 billion and was serviced at exceptional low interest rates and think about it that roughly for each full point increase in interest rates the servicing of the national debt will be increased with U$ 60 billion, nearly wiping out the present budget surplus of U$ 70 billion. Greenspan might be more worried about the national debt servicing than about the well being of the economy when contemplating an interest increase! And what would happen if the 2/3rds of the 1998 tax revenues estimated to have been created purely by the financial asset bubble would fall away? No way we are going to see monetary deflation! Economic deflation and the financial bubble deflating, that yes! And might the economic and financial asset deflation decelerate faster, the government's printing presses and hyper-credit creation will keep outrunning them. The governments are only interested in balance sheet paper profits they can tax and don't care if profits are real or not. Human psychology has a lot to do with financial developments and tendencies. We are living in a violent, aggressive, restless and rapidly turning world where there is no time and place for deflation. Economists and analysts are looking too much at numbers and forget to take the vagrancy of human behavior into consideration.

Where are the good times that governments at the very beginning of the 20th century only presented 10% of GNP and not a present average of 45%! And that the financial sector in the same period went from less than 5% of GNP to now over 20% without even considering yet additional increase of its power!

The newly elected social government of Germany has recently added its voice to cheaper money to keep the economy going, to create jobs for their workers and keep their own jobs and party in power. Japan in the last few weeks has poured trillions of yen into the economy, which the economy refuses to absorb! Last week China stated that it will infuse all the needed liquidity to keep the economy growing ( to prevent social unrest ) . Russia has declared its intention to use the printing presses to pay its debts. Everybody is doing it! Everybody is overspending! However, besides being impotent to tell people what money is, the governments are also incapable to tell money where to go.

The USA is having a heyday: their growing money supply is not flowing into the everyday consumer economy but into the financial greed bubble and out of the country into the dollar-eager lap of the world, while the dollar bill for the ever increasing US imports is being withheld from presentation. The US 1998 trade deficit with the rest of the world stands at U$ 198 billion. On top of the commercial debts, over 35% of the US national debt is being held overseas.

Inflation is building up in the gathering financial asset thunderclouds and\ in the menacing frontal systems of foreign held IOUs, which can only hoped for to be paid back in the far future with zilch Mickey Mouse dollars. The government cupboards are full with zillions of national debt skeletons, today standing at officially U$ 5.65 trillion but with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid included nearer to U$ 10 trillion. The USA national debt is destined to skyrocket the moment interest rates will turn up again.

However, the present financial situation is far removed from the great depression of the thirties. That time the governments had still the discipline to take corrective measures and gold still reigned supreme in the background. Today corruption is ripe, leadership absent and gold and inflation have been declared dead by Kenneth Gooding of the Financial Times.

If we want to find a more appropriate parallel we should better look at the days of the Weimar Republic in the 1920-ties: Germany then was under the unbearable debt burden of war reparation obligations, with no chance to repay, no reserves, its productive capacity in shambles, its politicians quarreling and nobody wanting to invest. Hyper inflation resulted: In 1922 the average price level in Germany increased by 5000%, but taken between January 1922 and November 1923 the increase was several billion times. In my personal collection the highest denomination of that time is a bill of "5,000 million mark" - or in American numbers: 500 billion! When the money supply increased, it brought price increases and consequently the purchasing power of the workers and pensioners was reduced. So to forestall unrest the authorities turned again to the printing presses. Thus a vicious monetary spiral was entered. Not only did the central authority print money but so did each separate state, even municipalities did it. Later old bills were just stamped over with higher denominations as printing new bills became too expensive. Then the monetary system just collapsed and was followed a few years later by the Nazi dictatorship.

But there is a major difference between the old Weimar days and present day: The financial mess we are getting ourselves entangled into will not be a temporary one with all problems solved and forgotten soon. It is all part of the demise of the outdated structure the national power and financial politics of the 19th and 20th centuries. We are entering the 21st century and the birth of the Internet and globalization are heralding a new World Age with capital letters, the Age of an integrated global society, "The Humapan" ( free down load from ) .

Near all present day governments have accumulated astronomical debt burdens. Cheaper money means a lesser interest burden and inflation means paying debt off with depreciated money! More money in circulation means an inflated economy and more tax receipts. And what do we think corrupt politicians to stay in power will go for? Apres nous le deluge! Let's rename the United Nations "the United Weimar Republics"!

During their Weimar Republic, the Germans who had bonds lost all. The ones with industrial shares managed to save from thirty to fifty percent of their capital. And people who had gold under the mattress survived best till Hitler ordered its confiscation.

Maybe the people going for Wall Street are not so dumb after all. People going for bonds might become the suckers. And if you are going for gold be sure where you are going to keep it! Probably only a few countries will experience hyper-inflation. Several countries will end up somewhere between inflation and hyper inflation. But only few will escape inflation at all. The USA and the EU ( if it survives! ) will in all probability close their financial borders and establish strict internal financial controls. We even might come to see a "sperr-dollar" in the USA. Only once all debts will have been inflated away, or will have been forgiven - only then will the world be able to start anew.

But do you think that after a total collapse of trust in all what is paper money and paper credit at the end of the 20th century, that a free Humapan of the 21st century would go again for the same mistakes instead of axing government and banking power, getting rid of all the corrupt derivatives and rococo financial instruments which only serve to the advantage of the ones manipulating them and would a free world not go only for money with intrinsic value, like gold? Only a digitorial Compu-State, when given a chance, might try to force its citizens otherwise.

Hans Schicht
Lake Chapala, Mexico
March 18, 1999

Back to Editorials








------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 08:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3518)
Thanks, T. Remital
Thank you for recognizing and sharing a valuable commentary on the state of affairs. We are in a precarious position, indeed.

got hope?
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 09:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3519)
Today's Gold Market Report: What is it about gold that frigh Better put what is it about a rising gold price that frightens them so?tens them so?
MARKET UPDATE (3/18/99) The gold market is fairly quiet this morning thus far after
the IMF/Clinton/Rubin hulabaloo of the past two days -- much sound and fury signifying
nothing. What is incredible about all this is not so much this single event which has unfolded
before us for the past few days but the stubborn, consistent and unremitting pounding of
gold from the politicians in Washington, the traders on Wall Street and the financial press.
What is it about gold that frightens them so? Anyone who has even a cursory understanding
of the woeful international debt situation knows that even if the IMF sold all of its gold
tomorrow, it would do little to stem the enormous overhang of bad debt held by the
emerging nations of the world, or more importantly, improve their ability to turn the profit
necessary to redeem it. Better put, I suppose, is the question: "What is about a rising gold
price that frightens them so?"

Bridge News reports the following this morning:

"Canadian gold-mining giant Placer Dome Inc. said remarks from US president Bill Clinton
urging the International Monetary Fund to sell gold to fund poor nations should have little
negative impact on the gold market, as the IMF would only be selling a small amount of
gold. Nevertheless, Placer Dome maintains that the proposed sale of gold remains
detrimental to the gold market, as such comments may lead to increased speculative short
selling of gold."

All in all there wasn't much news this morning. We will update if anything interesting
occurs. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting occurs. Have a good day, my
fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 09:24:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3520)
Sorry.....
Headline should read:

What is it about gold that frightens them so? Better put, what is about a rising gold price that frightens them so?
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 10:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3521)
We aren't having fun yet!
Did someone say gold would make a move at 11:20 NY time? Well, "Be careful what you ask for, you may get it!"
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 10:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3522)
Aragorn III
You requested I think of gold in terms of weight, not price. Well, what would you choose between 1) A nice home in the country, or 2) sleeping under a bridge with a 60 pound pack of gold?
AEL
(03/18/1999; 10:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3523)
bank runs OK?

http://www.y2kculture.com/finance/19990317.bankruns.html

Who's Afraid of a Run on Banks?

By Declan McCullagh

March 17, 1999

Bank runs should be welcomed, not feared.

That's what the Ludwig von Mises Institute -- a bastion of Austrian
free-market economics -- says about bank runs in its April 1999 monthly
newsletter.

"They spur banks on to be more careful in the conduct of their business. We
need more, not fewer, of them," says Llewellyn Rockwell, president of the
institute, in an article titled "Y2K and the Banks."

"The [Y2K] bug has exposed a very real and deep infraction that has long
plagued the US banking system. Thanks to long-ago government interventions
that redefined a bank deposit as a loan, modern banks only hold a fraction of
the demand deposits in people's cash accounts. The rest is used as the basis
for extending and pyramiding loans," he writes.

Here's the inevitable kicker: "If too many depositors demand their cash at
once, which is their right, it would trigger a bank run, which in turn would
lead to the so-called contagion effect, and runs on other banks."

Keep in mind that Rockwell is a longtime critic of the
AEL
(03/18/1999; 10:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3524)
bank runs OK?

http://www.y2kculture.com/finance/19990317.bankruns.html

Who's Afraid of a Run on Banks?

By Declan McCullagh

March 17, 1999

Bank runs should be welcomed, not feared.

That's what the Ludwig von Mises Institute -- a bastion of Austrian
free-market economics -- says about bank runs in its April 1999 monthly
newsletter.

"They spur banks on to be more careful in the conduct of their business. We
need more, not fewer, of them," says Llewellyn Rockwell, president of the
institute, in an article titled "Y2K and the Banks."

"The [Y2K] bug has exposed a very real and deep infraction that has long
plagued the US banking system. Thanks to long-ago government interventions
that redefined a bank deposit as a loan, modern banks only hold a fraction of
the demand deposits in people's cash accounts. The rest is used as the basis
for extending and pyramiding loans," he writes.

Here's the inevitable kicker: "If too many depositors demand their cash at
once, which is their right, it would trigger a bank run, which in turn would
lead to the so-called contagion effect, and runs on other banks."

Keep in mind that Rockwell is a longtime critic of the current banking
system, in which the Federal Reserve encourages banks to lend out much, much
more money than they actually have in their vaults. (Banks no longer act like
storage lockers, where everyone can take out what they put in.) If everyone
wants their money at once, only those lucky enough to be first in line can
get it.

Unless, of course, the Federal Reserve steps in, which it has said it would
do. It seems ready to print up as much physical currency as necessary, which
would salve the worst fears of jittery customers.

Rockwell predicts that would cause problems: "The Fed would have to run the
printing press full time or they would go belly-up immediately. The result
would be a dramatic deflation followed by hyperinflation."

We disagree. Seems to us that once the newly-minted money enters the banking
system again -- either from relieved depositors or through indirect spending
on purchases -- the banks will repay their loans to the Fed and we'll be back
to normal.

That point aside, he's right to say that even with Fed intervention, Y2K
could get messy: "Despite the appearance of stability and soundness, then,
the foundations of modern banking are actually extremely precarious. It would
only take the right kind of crisis, or perceived crisis, to throw the entire
system into chaos."
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 10:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3525)
News you can use
HEADLINE: Record Jan U.S. trade gap may fuel protectionism--March 18 (Reuters)

First steel, now what? Closing doors to cheapest access to real goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990318/rs.html

HEADLINE: Japan Stocks Close Sharply Lower--March 18 (AP)

Interesting advice from the vice finance minister for international affairs...
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990318/japan_mark_2.html

HEADLINE: U.S. IRS working hard to avoid Y2K hitches-Rubin--March 18 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990318/te.html
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 12:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3526)
SMOKIN'
I asked a question of a friend of mine about oil prices and how they might impact Japan's efforts at recovery. I know some do not think Japan's difficulties pose a problem for gold, but I had my doubts. I was so pleased with his answer, I asked if he would share his thoughts with my friends at the Round Table. Unfortunately, his English is not so good, so he declined, but he authorized me to relay his thoughts. I will call him "Smoky".

Smoky said that higher oil prices and higher bond rates will actually help the Japanese economy. He argues that the Japanese people are "savings-rich" and that such circumstances are precisely what's required to get them spending again. Deflation expectations have kept money waiting for lower prices on just about all durables, including gold. Inflation expectations will do just the opposite. With so much pent-up demand in the Land of the Rising Sun, the impact of rising prices should actually be quite salutary.

Thanks, Smoky. I hope I did you justice.
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 13:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3527)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Slightly Mixed; Gold Tests Recent Low

New York-March 18-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished slightly mixed here today, with gold inching
lower in a market that appeared to be feeling out the low
for the week to see if it could find some support around
there, contacts said.
Silver also dipped slightly but was described as
largely consolidating, while platinum and palladium managed
modest gains.
April gold started out the session quietly, but
eventually eased to $282.10, stopping a dime short of the
$282 low from Tuesday after an early-week sell-off triggered
when French President Jacques Chirac and U.S. President Bill
Clinton suggested some International Monetary Fund sales of
gold should be considered to provide debt relief to poor
countries. April gold today settled with a 50-cent loss to
$283.50.
"Gold has fallen and it can't get up," said Tim Evans,
senior commodity analyst with Pegasus Econometrics.
He pointed out that Friday's Commitment of Traders
(COT) data showed that the funds had nearly completely
covered their heavy short position during a recent rally,
which took April futures to a high of $295.50 on March 9,
the effective date of the most recent COT data, and
eventually to $296.50 one week ago today.
"That surprised me because I would have thought
completely covering those positions would have driven the
market to perhaps $305 or $310, certainly higher than
$296.50," Evans said.
"The result of that is that $296.50 now looks like a
real ceiling for this market for the intermediate term. What
we've seen since that high is the fund selling coming right
back into the market and banging it back to these fresh
lows."
The market is technically bearish now that the April
futures have made new lows for the year this week.
Today, Evans said, the market was "checking out whether
the $282 low from Tuesday is good as even short-term support
for this market."
He offered the view this is likely "tentative" support,
putting additional levels at $278.50, then $274 to $276.
Resistance is anticipated at $285.70, previously failed
support of $286.50 to $287.40, a knot from $289 to $292.50,
then last week's $296.50 high.
"At this stage, we're much more confident of where the
resistance is...than where the support is," Evans said.
"We're not really oversold to the point where I'd be looking
at this thing as a bottom. Gold needs to prove itself."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 13:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3528)
Bridge Gold News
Moscow--Mar 18--The forex/gold reserves of the Central Bank of Russia Mar
12 were at US $11.4 billion, up $100 million from Mar 5, when they were at
$11.3 billion, the CBR announced today. Feb 26, the reserves were at $11.5
billion, up $100 million from the week before. Bridge News, Story .5453

Johannesburg--Mar 18--South Africa's Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.,
which supplies 28% of South Africa's platinum production and 21% of world
production, said today it has taken a 15% placement of shares in
Australia's Aquarius Platinum Ltd. Perth-based Aquarius will use the funds
to boost working capital for a major push to develop its 100% held in the
Marikana Platinum Project near Rustenburg in South Africa's North West
province, Aquarius said in a statement. By I-Net Bridge, Story .11647

Bucharest--Mar 18--The National Bank of Romania Governor Mugur Isarescu
said in a press interview today that nearly half of Romania's gold reserves
could be swapped for cash to sustain at least 6 weeks of imports following
the May-June peak payment of foreign debts. Bridge News, Story .11018

Tokyo--Mar 18--Japan's customs-cleared imports of non-monetary gold fell
56.0% on year in February to a preliminary 4.9 tonnes, the Ministry of
Finance announced today.

Washington--Mar 17--The International Monetary Fund should "swap" a certain
amount of its gold reserves for interest-bearing securities in order to
help fund multilateral debt relief for poor countries, US Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin said today. By Blair Pethel, Bridge News, Story
.19799

Washington--Mar 17--The International Monetary Fund is expected to sell 5-
10 million ounces of its gold holdings "over time," Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin said today. Rubin told reporters after testifying to a House
panel that it is possible the proceeds from such sales would be invested in
short-term Treasury bills. By John Lipold, Bridge News, Story .20796

The above are reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/18/1999; 14:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3529)
Time to Fight!!! -- The Low Price of Gold!
The following E-Mail was sent to Anglogold:
http://www.anglogold.com/
As a shareholder I would like to know why Anglogold and other major Gold producers are selling contracts on future Gold production into a depressed Gold market?
Wouldn't this have the effect of depressing the current world price of Gold further,which in turn has the effect of lowering the share price of your company.I understand all companies require additional funding from time to time to keep current operations running smoothly,however as a shareholder I feel this practice has a detrimental effect on the world price of my favorite investment GOLD.

Your response would be greatly appriciated.

This message was rejected by Anglogolds E-Mail,URL listed above,if any of you gallant Knights or Hobbits would like to forward this be my guest............beesting
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 14:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3530)
News for a larger view
HEADLINE: Europe wary after Dow hits 10K:
Europeans distrust punch-drunk U.S. investors--March 18 (CBS MarketWatch)

Recommended reading. Good for perspective.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990318/news/current/london.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

HEADLINE: More Russian window dressing--March 18 (CBS MarketWatch)

Another good one for worldwide perspective.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/moscow.htx?source=blq/yhoo

Strong signs for the crude oil sector--CBS MarketWatch
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/futures.htx?source=blq/yhoo
Gandalf the White
(03/18/1999; 14:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3531)
Your RIGHT beesting --- Tis time to FIGHT !!
After todays second breaking the euphoric level of 10K on the DOW (BUT not closing there), together the high level trashing of gold, for no real reason, the spirits of the Hobbits were at an all time low. Even lower than the August '98 period when the extreme lows for gold were reached ! Then whom should appear but Aragorn III and tell the Hobbits, "ITS PARTY TIME !!" The Hobbits yelled in unison, "WHAT ?", so Aragorn III told them to gather around and he would tell them a story of why it was Party Time. -- Fear not you Knights of the TableRound, if Aragorn III does not get a opportunity to also tell you why it is Party Time, I shall replay the tape of the story for all to hear. BUT right now I must saddle-up Shadowfax and headout to the woods the speak with Treebeard about the forthcoming battle.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 15:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3532)
Beesting, Gandalf and all....The Straight-Line Strategy
The best way to frustrate our adversaries is to continue doing what you have already done so well. Posting on sites like this one to help educate the general public about what is going on with gold -- this yellow metal that so comfortably finds itself at the center of this swirling storm. The greatest fear of the gold shorts is that substantial public demand for the physical metal will develop -- physical offtake which will thwart their ability to hold the price in check; physical gold that they will not be able to use to fill their huge short positions.

That is why they trot out these same stale old stories week after week, month after month, year after year -- stale old stories that contain only the smallest kernel of the truth. How many times in the past year have we heard about IMF gold sales? How many ounces have actually moved? How many times have we hear that the European central banks are going to dump their gold? How many ounces have actually moved? How many times have we heard about the Swiss central bank gold sales? How many ounces have actually moved? The financial press even had the audacity to run a story during the recent run-up that gold wouldn't stay high for long because the public was now dumping gold. Imagine that. While from other quarters we discovered that gold demand had run the U.S. mint dry of gold coins. As someone at the office said when they read the article: If you are going to lie at least make an attempt at making it believable. They do this to stymie the building gold demand. Who for a minute believes that Clinton and Rubin want to sell gold to assist third world countries? Not many.

The strategy to educate the public and create physical gold demand is also the straight line proposal: The shortest, quickest and most effective method of covering the distance between two points. And it's not just so that we thwart the schemes of the short sellers, it is also so that we help our fellows find protection against the thundering onslaught of the Four Horsemen we have talked about so often here:

Y2K

The Asian contagion

The introduction of the euro

The overvalued, mania driven stock market

Onward, my fellow knights!
beesting
(03/18/1999; 17:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3533)
Peter Asher msg.#3437 and Mooski#3511
Mooski,good post,I agree with your dual exchange rate for Gold.

Peter'sorry it took so long to respond to #3437.
I'm base-ing my judgement on an article written about 15 years ago about the Gold standard from inception to 1933 in the U.S.A.(searched,and searched can't find the article) From memory: The United States,while useing Gold and Silver as money experienced little or no inflation for over 100 years.But did experience some deflation in the years prior to 1933.Now,the question is does the total population of the U.S. enjoy more freedom and wealth now than they did in say 1899? Keeping in mind my measurement of wealth is in long term untaxed assets.I DON'T KNOW! I do know the American people no longer own their houses and land because of taxation.
Now,I didn't ask if we enjoy a higher standard of living,thats like compare-ing life as a teenager and life of a 90 year old.I can't think of anyway to research this but was there a higher percentage of(so called private) land ownership in 1899 or 1999 in the U.S.? As to the freedoms part of my question I'll just ask are there more laws around now or when you and I were boyscouts? IMHO each law thats passed takes away our freedom of choice.Please think about that,you don't have to agree.Anyway kind of got away from the Gold and Silver for money discussion.
One more point I'd like to add if we had a worldwide acceptance of Gold and Silver coins valued by weight instead of numeration it would be so much easier for millions of world travelers to understand pricing in foriegn lands.Also I don't think earned entitlements would be effected in any way,that depends on the issuer of the entitlement.
I'm buying more gold at these bargain prices..........beesting
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 18:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3534)
M.K.@USA GOLD
YOU ARE GOOD, MICHAEL!
DAMN IT, YOU ARE REALLY GOOD.
-----------------------------

One of my earliest investment lessons was in the summer of '82. I was 34 years old then. The DOW was around 800, below even its peak of 1966, (can you imagine?). That summer BUSINESSWEEK ran its now famous "Death of Equities" cover. I read the article carefully. I remember thinking in those days that the only way to make money in stocks was to trade. Bull markets were inherently temporary affairs. Stockbrokers were pushing limited partnerships and annuities (no kidding).

I had just bought the biggest house I could afford. After all, if you wanted to make real money in those days, you bought real assets. Well, I still live in that house. It appraised last year for a little more than double what I paid for it. In the meantime, the Dow has risen 12-fold. My stock portfolio has grown more than 100-fold. Gold, well, I won't rub it in.

Today, I manage millions for myself and for numerous others. I have learned a lot of lessons over the years, not least of which is the importance of humility. But I've also learned this: that to EVERYTHING in investing there is a season. Today's giddy stock market players would do well to remember that. So would today's disappointed precious metals investors. For reasons I have amply explained in these pages, as have many others, I believe we are at an important inflection point in world markets. Days like today don't change my thinking one bit.

GOLD IS DEAD. You hear it everywhere you turn. It's on the financial page. It's on the television. Perhaps a day like today drops you pretty low. Maybe it makes you wonder if buying gold wasn't the biggest mistake you ever made. Well, I've got news for you my friend. Your biggest mistake hasn't even happened yet. I've seen it so many times, I could give you examples long into the night. If you only remember one thing from what I have to say here, remember this: that your likely biggest mistake with gold, and mine too, for that matter, is going to happen when we sell it too soon.
bmacd
(03/18/1999; 18:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3535)
USAGold
I figure that the US government should by now be panic-striken and desperate to keep the price of gold down. With oil prices up 50% in a very short time span, assuming they stay even where they are now, it'll take what, three months for the PPI and CPI to reflect this, and then oops, there's the inflation that they've all been trying to laugh off for ages. No inflation, no need for gold. Hey, no rise in the POG, well then there can't be much fear of inflation then, so we can all relax. Hmmmm. I don't think so. Inflation will kill the goldilocks scenario for sure. In any case, there's too many nations broke due to the low oil prices, and I'm guessing that they're tired of being broke and playing a game.
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 18:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3536)
Stranger..."to EVERYTHING in investing there is a season..."
Thank you for your kind words, my friend.

Solomon, as I think you already know, was the first proponent of cycle theory and the first contrarian. He was a silver bug if memory serves. Ecclesiastes is where Solomonic wisdom resides (for those who might not know) -one of my favorite books in the Bible because it explains so much about the human condition and thus the markets. Funny how it still applies, don't you think, Stranger?

A time for every purpose under heaven............

You have handled yourself well, Stranger, both at this FORUM and in life. We are honored by your presence at this table round.
THX-1138
(03/18/1999; 18:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3537)
Thoughts and Rumors
A co-worker mine was talking with a coin dealer in Texas who said he was getting a large number of gold coin purchases with very large sums of cash. This coin dealer suspected that drug dealers were cashing in the new $20, $50, and $100 notes because they are traceable through that little thread woven in them. What better way to launder dollar bills than with none traceable gold coins, which are accepted anywhere in the world. I just thought this was an interesting theory that Drug Lords would be bleeding the U.S. Mint dry of gold coins.

I was also wondering if it is possible to purchase gold directly from the mining companies, even if it is unrefined. Does anyone know if that is legal/possible?
bmacd
(03/18/1999; 19:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3538)
As per usual
THis may have already been commented on, but I have to say it. With the run up in the POG last week, it was inevitable that the usual IMF sale rumors would hit the street again. More forceful this time, but then , hey, so was the price rise
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 19:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3539)
bmacd.....
It's been a long time, my lionhearted one. For those who don't know (and I do not mean to embarass you, my friend) bmacd holds an exalted position at this table having made the very first USAGOLD FORUM post. Thus...bmacd the lionhearted.

Ladies & Gentleman, I propose a toast. To bmacd!

Now. What of these money supply numbers? And I agree, when the price of oil begins to be factored into prices of goods and services, it will be difficult to hide the obvious.

This business of restricting oil production has blindsided the markets. No one seems to be paying attention, but we have not seen this level of co-operation among oil producers since the 1970s. And this time around, the motivating factor might cut even closer to the quick than in the 1970s because it seems to me we are not simply talking about improving the profit picture in the Gulf, we are talking about survival.

Do you think that FOA and Another are right? Do you think the producers will go for the euro?
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 19:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3540)
Let them eat cake!
"Aragorn III, You requested I think of gold in terms of weight, not price. Well, what would you choose between 1) A nice home in the country, or 2) sleeping under a bridge with a 60 pound pack of gold?"
(Do you have it raining, Peter? Otherwise I would be sleeping under the stars.)

I would offer you something else to consider--your own opportunity to choose...

Select the man with no cause to go hungry: he who has cake, or he who has only pictures of cake.

"If a picture is worth a thousand words, and this cake is worth 'so many' pictures on the open market, for what "picture-value" should I await before I eat?" But picture-value has no meaning in this context, as the appetite would be on a cake standard. So it would also be with a true gold standard, which was the topic at hand.

Uniform and unalterable, gold has only its weight to offer as a unit of account. It does not dance; it does not sing. It functions simply and elegantly as a standard of reckoning by greater or lesser amount. Such is money defined under a gold standard.

To answer you, of course I choose the house, Peter. At any time, in any language, any geography, sixty pounds should be enough...let the seller eat cake.

got milk?
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 19:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3541)
Peter and Aragorn III...
I hate to sound "Tory" about the whole thing but how about sleeping in the country home with 60#s of gold nearby?

Got canned food?

Aragorn says something to remember -- the first sentence for a great book:

"Uniform and unalterable, gold has only its weight to offer as a unit of account. It does not dance; it does not sing. It functions simply and elegantly as a standard of reckoning by greater or lesser amount. Such is money defined under a gold standard."
<