USAGOLD Discussion - March 1999

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 00:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 2827)
Sir Peter of Ashershire
I enjoyed your Msg 2808 from 2/28. Your description of stock certificates functioning as a major currency shows you to be a knight of good perception--for it is the truth whether the investors perceive it or not! This idea makes for a good segue into some text I had written earlier this weekend, so I imagine now would be an appropriate time to type it. But first, this:
In your post you wrote,
"Now, on the fact that the manifestation of the inflated money supply has been in the paper economy. Back in November I and then Aragorn, pointed out that peoples money is not IN the market. The money went from the buyer to the seller of the stock, and then (or after more cycles of stock market "investment" ) into the "real" economy. So, is there really such a thing as inflation [and money--Aristo] in equities?"

I had shared your and Aragorn's view until this small change in perspective occurred to me just now. What you have said is, and remains, technically correct; nothing is "IN" the stock market--the money passes THROUGH to the seller. But I would suggest we consider this thought too: In a rising or otherwise promising stock market, the seller may tend to sit on the cash from his sale, keeping it as liquid cash, waiting the short while until it is to be reinvested in whatever he feels to be the newest promising stock. Arguably then, Peter (and Aragorn), I would suggest that in this regard someone may suggest (though not technically correct) that much of the nation's excess cash is tied up in the stock market. When stocks are no longer generally viewed as the best form in which to hold or risk one's wealth, this cash in limbo will flow elsewhere. As it chases around real goods, with the seller also spending his cash as quickly as received, the price inflation that everyone questions will become readily apparent to accompany the money supply inflation that has developed over recent years in the U.S.

This is a taste of the blurb I mentioned jotting down.
The dollar is a tired old man from whom we've asked too much. For too long the dollar has had to be all things to all people. Now, it is more important than ever to recognize the several props that became necessary subsequent to the golden legs being cut from under the dollar. Because it can no longer stand alone, enter Bonds on the left and Investments on the right--its crutches.

The modern dollar (following the global inflation of supply from 1930's to 1990's) has utterly lost its monetary capacity as a store of wealth/value, and it retains only the capacity of a medium of exchange.
Think of the cash dollar as spending-money. It is not something to be held for long in its pure form.
Think of Bonds as holding-money, the paper form in which people were intended to engage in "savings"-- to "store the value" of their modern fiat dollar. However, modern trading and speculative practices in the Bond markets has changed this. Volitility in relative values of global currencies (exchange rates) and shifting governmental policies has undermined this "store of value" element of Bonds.
Think of Investments as employing your cash in a career. With an Investment you are putting your money to work for one or more companies in the form of stock shares. This is not without risk! Your money may be injured or killed on the job. It may leave for work one morning and never return home. While it is away at work, you must accept that it is out of your hands entirely. The reason people subject their dollars to this risk is to supplement their own income (two careers are better than one(?)) because of the overall failings of the dollar's (and Bond's) failings as a store of wealth/value.

There would not be near the stressed foreign exchange, bond, and stock markets if all people would see the new dollar for what it is and react accordingly. I offer the solution in the form of a personal gold standard.
Use dollars only as a medium of exchange--that is ALL that they are!!
Stay away from Bonds--they are a false-prophet of value and profit!!
Use Investments in stocks only on that fraction of your wealth that you are willing to risk in a sane market--because sanity WILL RETURN to the markets.
Use Gold to consistently convert all excess monetary wealth. There are more and more people worldwide using this approach as they have already learned the hard lesson from a failed fiat currency. Gold is with only tiny effort a medium of exchange, or "spending-money." Gold is a Rock of Gibraltar form of savings or store-of-wealth/value. Any past manipulation of price is nothing but a GIFT to those who enter the gold standard now. Any manipulation cannot much longer bear up under the current stresses in the systems. For this reason, gold is also right now able to function as the safest of all possible Investments...your money will leave for work in the morning, and return many times multiplied in the evening. Spend what you like ON what you like, and leave the balance as gold.

The dollar is tired. Let him Rest in Peace. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 02:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2828)
Knights of the Round Table, stretch your legs on a walkabout!
I found a door down a passage I had never before travelled. Let there be no doubt that we are housed within the best of all castles! See for yourself...
Walk under the archway engraved "USAGOLD Home Page" and take the passage to the heavily constructed, locked, and guarded door marked "Product List". Don't worry...as a knight, the guards will greet you with honor and let you pass inside. Feast your eyes, my good men!
My, what an impressive testimony to our fine efforts and errantry we are assembling in our treasure room!! We are surely the wealthiest and most honorable castle in the land... "A toast! To living well and free at USAGOLD! Hear! Hear!" ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 08:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2829)
A world of news you can use
BRIDGE OVERNIGHT: PRECIOUS METALS:
Tokyo--Mar 1--Japan's foreign currency and gold reserves in February
totaled 221.470 billion, down $741 million from a month earlier, the
Finance Ministry said today. The current record high for reserves is
$228.385 billion marked in November 1997. By Bridge News, Story .697

Mumbai--Feb 27--India's gold imports may drop by 50-100 tons on expected
large mobilization of gold under the new gold deposit scheme announced in
the budget for 1999-2000 (Apr-Mar) today, according to M.L. Damani,
president of Bombay Bullion Exchange. Bridge News, Story .15069
New Delhi--Feb 27--Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today abolished
the special customs duty of 5% with effect from Sunday. However, the
special additional customs duty of 4% will continue. He also reduced the 7
existing rates of customs duty to 5 basic rates of 5%, 15%, 25%, 35% and
40%. Bridge News, Story .15032
New Delhi--Feb 27--Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today announced a
major gold mobilization program to draw gold jewelry from Indian households
and religious institutions. This will be largest effort to unlock thousands
of tonnes of gold from private custody in India, the world's largest gold
consumer. Bridge News, Story .15001

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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No further reproduction without written permission
USAGOLD
(03/01/1999; 08:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2830)
Today's Gold Market Update---Bonds Crater, Indian Government Asks Citizens to Give Up Their Gold
MARKET UPDATE (3/1/99): Gold was sideways in early trading with most currencies down against the dollar and June T-bonds plummeting in Chicago on heavy hedge fund selling. Late last week there were rumors that mega-speculator George Soros, the man who moves markets, was dumping his prodigious bond holdings. The selling seems to have carried over to this morning's market action. The weakness in the bond market has translated to weaker stocks in past sessions and trades will be watching to see if that will be the case today. If so, there could be a rapid drop in the DJIA. The weakness in bonds is probably what is keeping gold from following the cratering euro southward.

A political scheme hatched in India to persuade citizens to trade their gold for interest bearing paper was criticized by gold traders as too complex, while bankers in India applauded the government attempt to put distance between its citizens and their gold. Gold holders are being asked to exchange their gold for paper after which they will receive a return on the paper plus the return of the gold at the end of the term. These are essentially gold loans being made by the Indian people to the banks with the hope that they will receive the gold back at some point in the future. The scheme is not much different from the ones hatched by bullion banks in Britain, Euroland and the United States involving hedge funds, mining companies and central banks. The problem is this: Once Indians turn in their gold the banks will not keep it on deposit. They will sell it, or re-lend it. Once they do, the depositor faces the prospect of never seeing that gold again since the bank is essentially short selling the metal and hoping to replace it at some later date. Anyone who gives up their gold under such circumstances will deserve what they get: A piece of paper sorely devalued by term's end.

We know we have Indian readers who visit this site. Our advice: Hold tight. The scheme will not work. You are better off with your gold. For American and Europeans watching all this unfold, though it is an event far away geographically, it is not too distant financially. Most veteran gold owners understand that same type of schemes could be hatched in our own countries. Watch with interest and take notes. The same movie could be playing at a theater near you soon. When reading this morning's reports, something about it sounded eerily familiar. I couldn't help but compare the Indian situation with the Roosevelt gold confiscation of 1933. Indian bankers went out of their way to emphasize that the gold would kept in "safe custody." Of course, whatever we have to say here is not nearly as powerful as hundreds of years of Indian culture which would not allow individuals to give up the family fortune no matter what the bankers promise.

If you like this type of analysis you might like our newsletter now read and appreciated by over 8000 current and prospective gold owners. The latest issue is now available. It concentrates on a recapitulation and update on our New Four Horsemen of Apocalypse, and some interesting data on the boom in gold coin sales as Y2K preparation revs up worldwide. The latest News & Views concentrates on the Y2K problem and contains a helpful checklist of baseline preparations.

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Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 08:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2831)
$PREM.X leading the MKT down
The DOW and S&P are falling again today, while the XAU is trying to hold above the 60 level. The FORUM is giving my computer fits as it will not update correctly.
<:-)
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 09:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 2832)
The calm before the storm?
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Lower; Trade Selling in Plat., Silver

New York-March 1-FWN--...Gold trade was characterized as uneventful with no
special factors pushing it slightly to the downside. April's
pit-session range is just 50 cents, from $287.90 to $288.40.
Support was put at $285 and resistance at $290...

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 09:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2833)
The calm before the storm?
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Lower; Trade Selling in Plat., Silver

New York-March 1-FWN--...Gold trade was characterized as uneventful with no
special factors pushing it slightly to the downside. April's
pit-session range is just 50 cents, from $287.90 to $288.40.
Support was put at $285 and resistance at $290...

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

[A second attempt. The first post failed to arrive??]
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 10:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 2834)
Alert! From the tower we see a paper fire on the horizon. Here, too.
Bonds stumble; bears in charge
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET Mar 1, 1999

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys skidded...led by the bellwether
30-year, which slid over a point.
"...Selling from Asian accounts was witnessed in the intermediate sector
Monday and players said they were expecting more unloading of Treasurys
from mortgage-related players in a continuation of last week's trend.
Prices remain extremely vulnerable and appear ready to capitulate at the
drop of a hat. Friday could turn out to be a disaster if the employment
report shows, as many predict, that tightness in the labor market is
more pronounced than had been thought..."

To see it all, stats and ads and whatnot--
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990301/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

[At his request, I won't jinx a certain poster that called this long before the TownCrier's sources. We are in awe here in the tower.]
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 10:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2835)
ONLY way to get update
?
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 11:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2836)
The dollar rises on a foundation of hot air? Reason given for euro fall is justification for the contrary.
Euro continues slide to fresh record low in U.S.

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Europe's two-month old common currency hit
another record low on Monday as the U.S. economy continued to outperform
core Europe, where central bankers did not appear poised to help out by
lowering interest rates...

See it here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/m2.html

Also:
Monday March 1, 11:52 am Eastern Time
Dollar Tops 1.46 Swiss Francs, Highest Since August '98, on Strong U.S. Economy
(This is a headline-only alert)
Richard, Oregon
(03/01/1999; 11:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2837)
Nowhere Else To Go!
Peter A - I read with concern your post #2812. It seems you are saying that one should get everything out of the stock market & mutual funds. Is this correct? What if one is planning for a 3 to 5 year appreciation on their investment? I'm short on time. I look for your response later and maybe to explain myself more if required.
USAGOLD
(03/01/1999; 11:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2838)
TEST
Problems....
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 12:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2839)
At the end of it all, gold will be the last man standing
BLAIR SAYS EU SHOULD FOLLOW U.S.
Updated Mon�Mar� 1, 1999� 19:01 GMT
Prime Minister Tony Blair is set to tell his counterparts at the EU
Socialist parties' meeting in Athens Tuesday that Europe must learn
economic lessons from the US if it wants to achieve the dynamism
required to make the euro work. Blair will say the euro zone must take
into account in its policy-making the greater price competition and
openness in the US, according to a UK Press Association report. "You
simply cannot argue" with the fact that the US has lower unemployment
and higher growth, Blair will say.

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.bridge.com/
No further reproduction without written permission from Bridge News
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 12:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2840)
Kitco
Is kitco down?
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 12:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2841)
I mean the discussion forum. Their site is up but no
posts or...?
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 13:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2842)
There could be 2000 reasons for this news...
Mexico stocks resume trading after 3-hr failure

MEXICO CITY, March 1 (Reuters) - Mexico's stock market resumed trading
on Monday after a technical failure on its recently launched electronic
system shut down all trading for about three hours, dealers said.
As trading began again, stocks picked up their morning losing trend...

See if you can solve the mystery here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/yb.html
---------------------------------------

Fed to reassess risks at March 30 FOMC--McDonough

ALBANY, N.Y., March 1 (Reuters) -
..."Market interest rates, especially long-term intrest rates, have backed
up in the last two weeks -- mortgage rates and government securities and
private sector bonds. That will have in and of itself, a slowing effect
on the economy," Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough said.

"On the other hand, the purely domestic economy is so robust that we
could have some strain on resources,"...

Got resources? To see more--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990301/y9.html
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 13:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 2843)
Wait a minute...Doesn't "an increase in the interest rate" reveal a weaker dollar? See Real, see Rouble, see ad nauseam...
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Lower as Bond Yields, Dollar Rise

New York-March 1-FWN--Rising bond yields and a
strengthening U.S. dollar hurt the precious metals
complex today, sources here said. Profit taking was cited in
the silver, while floor contacts reported trade selling in
the gold and silver.
Declining U.S. Treasury bonds have meant an increase in
the interest rate, and this along with a stronger U.S.
dollar are hurting the precious metals, related Peter
Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.
The June Treasury bonds are 28/32 lower at 120 3/32,
and the dollar is up 0.37 Japanese yen at Y119.69, up 1.37
German pfennig at DM1.7946 and up 0.81 U.S. cent against the
euro at $1.0902.
"Basically, that's what's knocking us for a loop here
today," said Cardillo.
May silver lost 10.5 cents to settle at $5.5250. April
gold at one point traded down to $286.50, but recovered
enough to finish with a loss of just 60 cents to
$287.70.
"Actually, gold is holding up pretty good, in the face
of the 10-cent decline in silver," said Cardillo.
Meanwhile, a gold/silver dealer commented that there
was low volume in silver. "There was some profit taking on
the day," he said.
Gold was likewise quiet, he said.
Floor contacts reported some trade selling in both
metals, with a gold trader adding that some sell stops were
hit in gold, pushing the market to its session low shortly
after midday.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 13:40:18 MDT - Msg ID: 2844)
?
test
Voyager
(03/01/1999; 14:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2845)
Test
Test
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 14:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2846)
Today was three in a row !
Yes, the XAU index for the third session in a row fell through the 60 level mid-day and reversed and then closed above the 60 level. SJKaplan calls this action a bullish reversal! Things are coming to CRUNCH time. But, I am not sure if my heart can stand the pressure. (Just kidding.)
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 14:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2847)
Crier
I thought it goes like this.

1) Bond holders are selling because they think higher interest rates will see new bonds at greater yields, lowering the immediate market value of those that they now own so they liquidate.

2) Those higher interest rates increase the net investment flow into the country and therefore the stronger dollar.

It would be different if bonds were selling off because a weaker dollar was increasing the perception of higher risk.
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 14:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2848)
"Rivlin Says No Evidence So Far That Tight U.S. Labor Market Causing Inflation"
Ms. Rivlin's 'Inflation'...
Can you say "Animal Farm"? I knew that you could.
Thus endeth the lesson. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 15:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2849)
Richard, you asked for advice
One of the luxuries of publishing on the Forum is not being responsible for one's theories.

Post #2812 postulates the *possibility* that the first action of a market reversal at this point would be a diminishing inflow of funds causing prices to fall. That in turn would cause an increase in investors cashing out and thereby create a substantial sell off. That would cause a further reduction in new investment and so the cycle would accelerate. As many of us have pointed out, cashing out is dependent on new money coming in and that will only occur as and if people consider the lower prices a good buy. (Otherwise its just goodbye)

As to how the public *will* react? Well, you have just described yourself as the archetypical investor. So, if you want really good advice, ask yourself what will your response be to a flat market, to a sell off and to a rout? Then decide if you want to get a jump on yourself, so to speak.

Remember

"For knowledge complete,
You must sit at the feet,
Of the Wright Brother's flight instructor."
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 15:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 2850)
Peter and our ever-vigilant TownCrier
Occam's razor, me boys...Occam's razor.
I find it helpful to reduce a situation to the bare necessities...strip it down to the elemental Cause and Effect.

"What" causes "what" here? The perceptions of the dollar's current and future strength/value is what drives the boat. The Fed is inclined to raise their rates when they perceive there to be too many dollars sloshing around...too many WEAK dollars. The bond market often takes matters into their own hands. If they have a perception of a weak dollar, they will not be willing to hold bonds for a low rate of return on future weak dollars.
Peter, your first point recognizes this. Your second point, though...it cuts both ways, depending on whether the collective market sentiment for the future is optimistic or pessimistic. As the Crier point out...Russia, Brazil,...here we see your higher interest rates but do not see an increased net investment flow into those countries and thereby causing a stronger currency. Or else I'm looking at it all wrong.
Perhaps this is what you were driving at with your caveat: "It would be different if bonds were selling off because a weaker dollar was increasing the perception of higher risk."

Money was never supposed to be this difficult. Return to a gold standard and abolish fractional reserve lending, and you've got a helluva lotta out-of-work economists and financial consultants. Sounds fine by me. Occam's razor! ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 15:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2851)
Sorry, Sir Peter, I've only two cents to contribute. I leave the analysis for you Knights at the Round Table. A view of Brazil from my Tower:
Brazil shares surge at close as currency crashes

SAO PAULO, March 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian shares shot up at the close
Monday as the currency plunged to an historic low...
"The Bovespa is up because of the dollar appreciation, that's all," a
dealer at BancoCidade in Sao Paulo said.
The real currency ended at an all-time closing low of 2.15 per dollar as
dollars flew out of the foreign exchange market, which was already
suffering from low liquidity...

And from another source:
"Brazil is walking a precarious path through a minefield. And it is not yet clear
what its immediate economic future holds," Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin added.
TownCrier
(03/01/1999; 16:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2852)
I believe this is a real-world example of what ET, Aragorn III, and The Stranger were discussing Sat. and Sun.
The Brazilian real fell to its lowest level since January's devaluation, as traders anticipated a scramble for dollars by companies repaying maturing debts.

The currency weakened 4.9 percent to 2.14 to the dollar, the biggest one-day drop in six weeks. The real slid as low as 2.16. Since the Jan. 13 devaluation, it has weakened 44 percent.

With about $1.7 billion in debts maturing this month and Brazil shut off from international capital markets, demand for a limited supply of dollars could drive the real lower still. "Over the length of the month, there's quite a bit of stuff coming due," said Edson Sarti, a Banco Credibanco foreign-exchange trader. "What we're seeing to day could be banks making dollar purchases in advance."

Sarti said the central bank's failure to act in the foreign exchange market today -- after intervening for three days last week -- may also have emboldened some banks to buy dollars, betting that they'd be able to sell them later at a profit.

The real futures contract expiring at the end of March weakened 4.20 percent to 2.12 per dollar.

In addition to selling millions of dollars to support the real, on Thursday and Friday, the central bank sent regulators to personally monitor trading at many banks. They didn't show up today, though, traders said. "There's a big tendency to try figuring out which level the central bank will come in at," Sarti said. "There's really a lot of speculation going on, so it's worrying when they don't act."

What's more, the currency decline raised concern that inflation, which already rose to a pace of 3.6 percent in February in one survey, could accelerate. "If the exchange rate stabilizes at a higher rate, like 2.2 or 2.3 to the dollar, and you have higher inflation, it will be more difficult to avoid indexation," Andre Loes, chief economist at Banco Bozano Simonsen in Brazil. "What is important is we don't want to see a big inflation figure for the month of March, like 7 or 8 percent. This would give the sensation of inflation going out of control."

That will further squeeze companies such as OPP Petroquimica SA. The petrochemical arm of the Odebrecht group, said today it paid $113 million to bondholders exercising an option demanding early repayment securities due to mature in 2004.

The high cost of those dollars was underlined when the Brazilian investment bankers' association reported today companies were unable to borrow any money abroad in the first two months, compared to $10.4 billion in the same period last year.

[As forwarded from a news wire report.]
Aristotle
(03/01/1999; 17:05:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2853)
A word to the people of Japan
After a Senate panel hearing on the U.S. Social Security retirement hearing, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told reporters of his trip to Japan last week. "Japan certainly faces important challenges and Japanese authorities are very much aware of those challenges." Also, "They are very much determined to trying to do what we all agree is important, which is trying to bring about domestic demand-led growth."
-------------------
The surest way to do that is to invoke policy that erodes the purchasing power of the yen through time. The people realize in regard to their savings that they had better "Use it or lose it." Just like in U.S. over modern history.

Here is my tip to all those Japanese citizens that do not want to frivolously spend down their savings on assorted bric-a-brac. Buy gold. Your yen will leave your accounts to stimulate the demand side of the economy as the U.S. so desires of you, and your personal liquid wealth will be retained as you will now hold a superior form of savings--gold! ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/01/1999; 18:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2854)
April gold now $287.80...
If you guys and gals want to see a classic bounce off a lowering bollinger, pull up http://www.quote.com/livechartscom/livechart. Put in gc9j then on the bottom put in bollinger.

I forgot, you need to turn on 'all sessions' and candles. This will clearly show you what I am seeing.

At 12:30pm the POG went through $286.60 to $286.50. This then traded side-ways away from a lowering bollinger for 10-minutes then baboom up she went. This is IMO a classic bounce. To recognize this pattern is as good as gold -- a keeper skill.

Then notice how the bollinger bands are coming together now. It looks like the lower band will meet at $287.50 and then the price will probably lower through this for another up trend but not enough data yet. Quite the fascinating chart, eh?

Richard, Oregon
(03/01/1999; 18:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2855)
Aristotle - 03/31 #2828
Aristotle - You continue to bring wisdom, understanding, discernment and knowledge to this ever growing round table and as for me, a smile to my face and a chuckle to my tummy. Thanks!!
Peter Asher
(03/01/1999; 19:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 2856)
Crier, Aristotle, Richard.
Comparing the current US economy to that of Russia or Brazil, is like comparing a ship encountering rough weather to the one beached in two pieces down the road here.

Russia consumed her infrastructure and capital base in an orgy of a profiteering, free-for-all liquidation. Brazil, having had a runaway "wheelbarrow" inflation, probably is in a similar but less devastated state.

The main danger facing the US economy is the resolution of the Cinderella stock market. The Bubble has been sustained by the low interest rates of the moment making the current PE ratios valid; just barely. This is the time bomb I was addressing yesterday, in #2812. My favorite description of this is (of course) from my msg.# 1150,4 Dec. P.M.

The "Tulip Bulb" phenomena is rampant, and the Ponzi scheme-pyramid game mechanics are the driving
force. The Market goes up despite the fundamentals because it is seen as continuously giving far greater return than other
"investments." These investors do not comprehend that their money has passed into the hands of the former stockholder, and
they now have only paper that they hope will be cashed out by someone else at a higher price. This has been the alchemy of
turning investors' "savings" into the sellers spending money, fueling the great economic boom. But, when the "savings" don't get
created by jobs and profits, who will the investors sell to? Greenspan and Co. have the tiger by the tail and still manage to chuck
another rate cut up front for the tiger to munch on. As long as this game can remain in play, the gold holder will see the profits
go by, but when the reality hits, the market won't be at the top, and the exits will already be crowded. So building a Gold
position now would be the better part of valor.

I am awaiting Richard's response, as our in house, resident stockholder, to give us a one man survey of what we might expect the public to do.
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 19:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2857)
Steve --- but look at the XAU chart
On the five min chart, XAU looks even better than the GC9J chart. YES, the time is drawing near. The stok and mo also are looking GREAT. Just what triggers the BLAST OFF into the upper levels is the ?QUESTION? !!! Ideas anyone?
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/01/1999; 20:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2858)
Hush! I Think I Hear Something
All sorts of things can cause bonds to sell off. But only one thing can bring on a bond bear market. Put your ear to the ground and listen carefully. Inflation is here.

So what if the dollar goes up against other currencies. That merely means that inflation expectations are even higher elsewhere. There is no mutual exclusivity between a rising dollar and falling treasuries prices.

SteveH
(03/01/1999; 21:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2859)
April gold now...
$287.80 and Canadian Silver Maple leaf now a whopping $15.00 on ebay:

1999 Mint Silver Maple Leaf Y2K 1 oz .9999 Item #71142321

Coins & Stamps:Coins:US:Gold
Currently
$15.50
First bid $8.00
Quantity
1
# of bids
9 (bid history) (with emails)
Time left
1 hours, 6 mins +

plus shipping of
$2.00

plus insurance of
$?

plus money order fee of $.80

Makes a whopping $19.00 plus per ounce.

Now that shows the demand for these puppies. And that isn't the only one. Next one now at $12.50, and $10.50 coming up soon for end of auction.

Incredible. And bidding is not closed yet.

Only a matter of time before paper silver follows. This pent up demand and thirst for physical will prove Another was right on the mark.

Goldfly
(03/01/1999; 22:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2860)
Hi Ho Silver! Away!!!
Uh, Lone Stranger, Goldfly see heap-big cloud of M3 blowing across valley.

Mmmm..... Look! People have yellow metal in hand- not get blown around!

Make Goldfly think...... me not take Wampum for pay now. No, you keep dumb mask..... me take some gold. Or maybe silver bullets? Or saddle?

Got ballast?
Gandalf the White
(03/01/1999; 23:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 2861)
final test
Is it working yet?
Aristotle
(03/02/1999; 00:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2862)
Various and all knights
Richard,
It looks like someone carted up some of that treasure I discovered in the recesses of the castle to inspire us here at the Round Table. My only grievance is that now I can't bring myself to scroll down to the lower regions of the Forum page!

Gandalf and SteveH,
Our resident map masters! I was wondering...if we took all of your charts and arranged them in a single stack, I'll bet we could really roast some marshmallows for want of a match!
Also, can your charts answer me this: At the end of the day, when some of your lines intersected and some bounced and some did neither, is an ounce of gold still 31.103 grams?
Just some playful ribbing, guys. Every court needs a jester now and again to cartwheel through the room. Why, I cannot say. That is just the way it is. Keep up the good work :)

TownCrier,
Your two-cents-worth quips are the best entertainment bargain I've found. And your long Brazil story was a gem. A classic primer for those who want to know what happens when a nation's currency goes south. An excellent Case Study; required homework for all assembled knights whether at the table or standing at the periphery of the room just beyond the firelight.

Peter and The Stranger, (others= ET, turbohawg, A.III, backlash, Goldfly, T.Remital, Gold Dancer, AEL, No49, etc.)
It's good to have you heavyweights defending the castle while the others are out slaying dragons (at least that is what they'll tell us...we *know* they are really at the pub!).
Give some mindful consideration to our biggest challenge yet. When The Stranger had his ear to the Earth listening to the rumblings of 'inflation' (whatever THAT is!), I submit to you that you were also hearing the advancing troops of the Year 2000 invasion. I hope our remaining heavyweights return from slaying their steins to help man the walls on this one. I also hope we can locate some additional wisdom from those who have been busy polishing their armor in the corners.

Think of this as a theoretical exercise; no wrong answers. The 'facts' are worthy of the quote marks I've given them, and uncertainty rules the day. I believe that Y2K itself is worthy of a degree of preparedness, and therein lies the problem. In a world of small inventories and just-in-time deliveries, there is little chance that everyone can get everything that they would choose to have to attain their personal comfort-level of preparedness. The longer the bulk of the population waits "to buy a few things, 'just in case'", the smaller that chance becomes.
I believe manufacturing and agricultural industries will do well this year as they ramp-up production to meet this atypical demand. Would I invest in their stock in anticipation of this growth? Hell no, that is poor prioritization! Would I buy their products? Yes I would.

Banks are going to have a tough time of it, and I'd say they already are. I know of several examples where a person or business was denied a loan within the past few months that could have readily obtained one a year ago. On a personal note, I have an impeccable credit rating, and had a recent interest in obtaining a specific credit card that had introductory incentives that appealed to me. I applied...you guessed it...DENIED. Now remember, our fiat monetary system requires that new lending outpace loan repayments. Brothers of the Round Table, this has come to an end. Not only will the monetary sytem be perceived as 'In Jeopardy' due to the fractional availability of hard/paper currency, but the banking system itself is at risk from withdrawn capital reserves and increasing debt default. And remember from an earlier post that a dollar is only worth as much as the contract that gave it life. The asian contagion will arrive on our shore on gossamer wings in the guise of "Y2K Irrationality". At least that is what the federal officials and media will call it.

Do you know why the largest denomination bill is the $100 Federal Reserve Note? Sure, they might tell you it is a defense against the drug trade, but that is "Animal Farm" all over again. It was felt that smaller bills were a psychological advantage against a perception of the onging money supply inflation. In 1969, McKinley on the $500, Cleveland on the $1,000, Madison on the $5,000, Chase on the $10,000, and Wilson on the $100,000 ceased production. Will we see these bills re-emerge out of necessity? $100's simply can't be printed fast enough in the remaining months to represent the digital money on account.

A panic is not a prerequisite for big problems. Our current system is stretched so thin that normal precautions will, shall I say, 'break the bank.' There can be no denying the magnitude of this phenomenon. I recently received USAGOLD's newsletter, as I'm sure all of you did. Take a look at the page one graph of Gold Sales by the U.S. Mint. THAT, my dear fellows, is what I would call a runaway train. In all honesty, international economic and financial principles pale in comparison. There is no question in my mind where I would choose to see my friends hold their hard won wealth whether large or small. I'm already on a gold standard, so my position is one of "fascinated observer."

Whither gold, and whither banks? You tell me, O Knights noble at the Round Table assembled. ---Aristotle
el St.One
(03/02/1999; 01:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 2863)
Deflation and Gold
The following is the end of an article By Dr BOB ROBBS from Gold-Eagle.com via fiendbear.com

That the US has a foreign trade deficit running nearly $300 Billion this year will put strong
pressure on the dollar to devalue internationally.

There is another factor affecting gold. When it is held as a monetary asset of last resort and
when times get rough, this gold is liquidated. We saw that in Asia early last year. That's partly
why gold prices fell. Will that happen again? This is unknown, however should the West see
heavy deflation, I doubt there will be wholesale gold liquidations simply because very few
private parties in the West own much of it as a percentage of total assets. In fact, after the
big spike in the gold price in 1980, when an ounce hit $850, gold in the rich Western countries
has been relentlessly dishoarded by private hands. Do you know anyone with appreciable
assets in gold? I doubt you do. This is in stark contrast to Asian countries, where private
stashes form a monetary backbone for most people. Asians are now buying back much of the
gold dumped during those times. The last 3 months of 1998 saw the largest gold demand of
any quarter in world history, according to the World Gold Council who compiles such
statistics.

Statistics prove that in the long run, gold is a very stable medium to store wealth. Every
single fiat system devised since the 8th Century China has crashed and burned. The US dollar
has lost 90% of its value since 1950. Do you think the last 10% is sacred?

For those interested in the data of how gold has fared from 1560 to the present, read "The
Golden Constant" by Roy Jastrom, or read Dr. Dan Ascani's articles entitled "Gold in
Deflation" found at Gold Eagle: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/ascani021599.html

The purchasing price of gold has always reverted to the mean through the centuries. At
present the long-term value of gold is about $600 in today's dollars, giving you an idea of how
undervalued it is as an asset.


"Dr. Bob Dobbs"

28 February 1999
el St.One
(03/02/1999; 02:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2864)
Test
TEST
T. Remital
(03/02/1999; 06:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 2865)
choo-choo...
If you are getting bored with this small trading range of comex gold ...just remember
you are witnessing the end of 17 year bull mkt. in equities and a 19 year bear market in
precious metals. As the train pulls away from the station you should know that you may
not see these prices again for years..and years!!!! Trains don't turn at 60mph from a
station but gather speed as they pull away. JUST BE ABOARD!!!!!
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 07:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 2866)
HELP Webmaster Jeff
Tis not working well yet! Refresh not working. I have deleted ALL the Cache!
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 08:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2867)
T. Remital; Usal and ET
T.Remital, yours are good words to consider, though while you say this time will not be revisited for "years..and years!", I say this time will be seen "never again"!

ET and Usal: You've convinced me to put a stay on retirement plans. Would you accept an island vacation to Bahrain instead? Usal, I am in agreement with you regarding United Arab Emirites. I have a good friend from Dubai U.A.E. who is still there. I have not made that visit, but it is easy to imagine a place to be as good as its residents. All roads lead to Dubai...I must travel faster!
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 08:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2868)
Aristotle and the "mapmakers"
You are so correct, as usual. one oz. Troy = 31.103gms. YET ! BUT what is happening to those lines or candles give joy to the Hobbits TODAY after a long winter funk.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 08:05:58 MDT - Msg ID: 2869)
Apologies to U.A.E. (...Emirates)
Must not try to type while on the telephone!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2870)
A nice way to start your day
Midsession N.Y. Metals: Markets Bounce From Earlier Lows

New York-March 2-FWN--The precious metals complex
started out the day lower to steady here, but has since
moved to mostly higher.
April gold futures, which were earlier slightly softer
at $287.40, have bounced all the way to $290.50.
One floor source said the rally started on trade buying
by Goldman, Sachs, which encouraged short covering.
"The market is a little short. That's indicative of the
open interest these days, and was enough to get the shorts a
little nervous," this source said.
"So basically, we have trade buying causing some short
covering."
Another floor source cited buying by Morgan Stanley and
Cargill.
Resistance for the April gold was put at $291.10 and
$292.20, while support was put at $287.50 and $285.60.
May silver started softer, trading down to $5.4350, but
has since bounced as high as $5.58.
One gold/silver floor contact cited buying by J.
Aron.
"I think this morning they pushed it too hard," he
said. "It was probably yen- or currency-related...Now
they're buying it back."
The dollar is up 0.89 yen at Y120.60.
Another floor contact commented that locals were short
in silver, then buying emerged from Republic Bank, Milleneum
and York. This appeared to be mostly trade buying and
encouraged some short covering, he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
JA
(03/02/1999; 08:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 2871)
Steve H
Since we have not heard from you this morning I thought I would post the price of gold in your absence.
April Gold
Open High Low Last
288 290.5 287.4 289.4

This is just to let you know you are missed
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2872)
Read between the lines!
New York--Mar 1--While Republic New York Corp. announced today it would
restructure, exit certain businesses, and lay off employees, the company
said it would focus on "solidifying its leadership position in precious
metals and foreign exchange/banknotes." Bridge News, Story .19638

Palm Springs--Mar 1--London Metal Exchange chief executive David King said
today he has budgeted for a 10% decline in Exchange turnovers this year,
although in January, turnovers were actually up 2% over the previous year.
By Darcy Keith, Bridge News, Story .25092

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 08:40:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2873)
"Don't just stand there...DO something!"--Senators doing something...
Bennett, Dodd urge Y2K preparations

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Senate's leading experts on the Year 2000 computer problem...

...Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities, who also
appeared on CBS, said he is among a minority of economists who believe
the computer problem could cause a global recession with the breakdown
of inventory-control systems around the world...

...Bennett said one impact on the international economy could be "a flight
to quality" in which people remove money from countries where they feel
there's going to be an "infrastructure meltdown."
Bennett's report and CIA testimony to Congress last week pinpointed
poorer countries in general and Russia in particular as areas
ill-prepared for the millennium bug...

Peer into the future--
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncssun03.htm
USAGOLD
(03/02/1999; 09:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 2874)
Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Up on Strong Fundamentals; Brazil Back on Radar Screen
MARKET UPDATE (3/2/99): Gold bolted higher on short covering led by Goldman Sachs in New York, an 8% reduction in the COMEX gold stocks announced after the close yesterday (64,373 ounces), and weakness in stock markets around the world particularly in Europe and Latin America. FWN reports floor buying from Cargill and Morgan Stanley as well. The burst in activity in gold followed a quiet night overseas and could be a carryover from the inverted market we saw in late February. At that time gold was being delivered into the COMEX warehouse. Now it is being taken out. If one were to speculate what all the gold movements portend, the thought comes to mind that somebody is taking deliver -- and that somebody could be the American people who are buying gold coins in record numbers. Yesterday, we had another banner day at Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD with buyers coming into the market at all levels of participation. Most cite Y2K and a potential stock market drop for their purchases.

Meanwhile, the problems in Brazil have popped back up on the radar screen again. The real once again cratering with no hope in sight for stability. Joblessness has hit a record and promises only to get worse given the atypical IMF medicine these troubled economies are forced to swallow. Interest rates just hit 40%. And hyper-inflation grips the economy -- all of which adds up to another example of the inflationary depression aspects of the Asian contagion phenomena. The mess in Brazil prompted Armina Fraga, the new head of the Brazilian central bank, to lament at his recent Brazilian parliament confirmation hearing that "Our credibility really did fall in the last 18 months'' -- an understatement worth noting.

Well, that's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. We'll update if anything else surfaces. Have a good day.
JA
(03/02/1999; 09:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 2875)
Test
My previous post must have been zapped!
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 10:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2876)
Stock Market
Peter A - 03/01 #2856
One man survey of what I believe the public will do regarding the stock market - Well, I believe very much in what you stated in message #2812, 02/28:

"As the markets track over time at a diminished rate of growth, new investors come in at higher levels, and more people are seeing their holdings at little or no increase in value. The question is, when will this phenomena manifest itself in lessening the capital flowing into the market while simultaneously increasing the flow out of it? The beginning of the end of the "Bubble" will be, "Not with a bang, but with a whimper." Holders have gone down an emotional scale from euphoria to exuberance to confidence and will continue through complacency, nervousness, worry, fear and panic, possibly even to abject terror."

I believe it all, I guess just not as quick and maybe even as deep as you've eluded to. I liken it to a steam engine with a full head of steam, the very wealthy engineers. I see MUCH being spent and contrived to keep this market climb unending. There's too much to be lost and there's to much not to be gained. A 1929 type crash, I don't think so. The playing field is just too big, the stakes too high, and the players too many. I think in two to four years, it will appear as though it never happened. Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of little guys will loose and loose big, but the big guys won't. I don't know any more than you. This certainly gives me more food for thought (I'm a little guy).
rascal
(03/02/1999; 10:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2877)
Thanks from all goldbugs

I have been reading and enjoying the high quality of postings on this forum for months now. I sincerely thank you all for your continuing contributions. This is my first posting and hopefully I am not being too repetitious of thoughts that have been mentioned on this forum previously.
Overwhelming gratitude.
I feel an overwhelming sense of gratitude toward many individuals, companies, and institutions who are associated with gold. I am sending a gigantic thank you to all of you who are working so hard to see that the price of gold is being held down in a narrow range. On behalf of all the believers in gold who have been accumulating gold in all its forms at these bargain - once-in-a-lifetime - prices, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart. If you want to continue providing low-priced gold and gold-mining shares for us to purchase for another year or two, we will owe you an eternal debt of gratitude.
Thanks to all the speculators who are short.
I want to personally thank all of you speculators in paper gold for your willingness to continually take the risk of selling short in exchange for relatively tiny profits on your shorts as the trading range becomes narrower and narrower. I want to additionally thank you for not discovering that your profits from being long could be gigantic since there is almost no limit to how high a price can go. Keep up the good work. You are helping us goldbugs to accumulate and get ready. I even want to thank you gold shorts in advance for what you are going to do to make the coming bull move in gold really explosive. Thank you for being willing to suffer huge losses as you cover your shorts with the price of gold skyrocketing. Thank you for not noticing what is going on in the silver, platinum, and palladium markets which would give you a clue as to what you are going to be experiencing.
Thanks to all the Central Banks that sold gold.
I want to personally thank all of you Central Bankers who have forgotten the role that gold has played throughout history in the monetary systems of the world, and have chosen to recklessly sell your gold. Thanks for not bothering to study history. Thanks for giving us your precious gold while you are stuck with fleeting paper assets. Good luck in explaining your irresponsible actions at some future date.
Thanks to all the Central Banks that are leasing gold.
I want to personally thank all of you Central Bankers who have leased someplace between 3,000 and 14,000 tons of gold. It is truly a worthwhile contribution you have made in holding the price of gold down so that we goldbugs can continue to do our accumulation routine. Thank you for assuming this huge risk for such a small rate of return. Thank you for your blind-faith that you can overcome market forces. Thank you for being willing to assume the catastrophic risks associated with the price of gold suddenly zooming to a much higher level, and when this happens, thank you for being willing to explain why there were losses and defaults.
Thanks to all the investors in the high-flying stock market.
I want to personally thank all of you investors in the many over-valued sectors of the stock market. Please continue to base your investment decisions on the greater fool theory of investing. Thank you for not discovering the undervalued gold-mining stocks yet. We gold investors need a little more time to accumulate these shares at unheard of low prices. Thank you for not finding out that all the gold stocks in the world could be purchased for the market cap of just one of a number of listed stocks. Thank you for your willingness to buy over-valued stocks, because sometime in the future we will have some greater fool gold stocks to sell you. Thank you for not telling any wealthy investors that it would only take a small percentage of the flow of funds going into the stock market to move the gold market and gold shares to unprecedented heights. Please, investors, give us goldbugs a little more time to accumulate.
Thanks to the producers of gold
I even want to thank the gold-mining companies who seem to be working against their own best interests in selling gold forward. You are doing your part to hold the price of gold down so that we can buy more and more for a longer and longer period of time at these low prices. Your shareholders probably arent thanking you, because it is possible that you are depriving them of some well-deserved financial rewards. Anyhow thank you for having faith in the future of the gold industry. You certainly wouldnt be continuing to explore and develop new mines if you thought the price of gold was going to remain below $300.
Thanks to Alan Greenspan
I personally want to thank you, Alan Greenspan, for displaying irrational exuberance in your interest rate cuts last fall which have done much to encourage a debt and stock market bubble of dangerous proportions. This, along with your often quoted words about Central Banks being willing to sell gold, have really helped to keep the cap on the price of gold. Thank you for changing your position about the role of gold in the monetary system, or perhaps hypocritically pretending to change your beliefs. Your actions have done much to help us in our accumulation of gold at truly bargain prices.
Thanks to the short-sighted computer programers
I personally want to thank the computer programers who years ago laid the groundwork for our fast approaching Y2K crisis. This Y2K event is already having severe effects on the precious metals markets, and we still have 10 months to go. And you programers did this years ago before you even knew that the gold market would need a nudge this year. What foresight you possessed.

On behalf of the loyal believers in gold - the investors willing to put their faith in gold and gold-mining shares when they are greatly out-of-favor - I thank you one and all.
NORTH OF 49
(03/02/1999; 11:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 2878)
Who'ld-a-thunk it??!!
First, Sir Rascal, welcome to the FORUM.

This Round Table never ceases to amaze me. Up until this very moment, I really never thought of the numerous individuals and entities you mentioned as being "allies".

What a refreshing new perspective.

No49
Peter Asher
(03/02/1999; 12:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 2879)
Richard
This was the survey question. "As to how the public will react? Well, you have just described yourself as the archetypical investor. So, if you want really
good advice, ask yourself [what will your response be to a flat market, to a sell off and to a rout?]
AEL
(03/02/1999; 12:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 2880)
Michael
I like the new forum format -- whole day on one page, rather than
broken into a.m. and p.m. (an unneeded division, here). However,
I DID like the "Click Here to view yesterday's discussion" at the
TOP of the page (handy!). Could this be re-instated?

thx!
Aristotle
(03/02/1999; 12:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2881)
Two points
First Sir Peter, because you are sitting closest.
Your comments to Richard are a good reminder to us all that we are each, as you most eloquently phrase it, 'sitting at the feet of the Wright Brothers' flight instructor.' So true. Many answers may be learned by asking oneself.

Second, to Sir rascal, who has finished polishing his armor to a high golden shine, and has take a seat at the table. Well met indeed! Your synopsis gave me cause to double-check my calendar...we have so much to be thankful for I thought it must surely be November! You sound as one who has patted a gold coin or two upon your palm. May I guess that you are on a personal gold standard such a I? Either way, you are in good company here.

Extra Note..."So, Dr. Jones (No49), we meet again. Have you been busy raiding lost arks, temples of doom, or similarly occupied by other crusades?" ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 13:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2882)
Always remember, a Government's solution to everything is to throw more money at it
Summers - global storm clouds need time to clear
WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) - ...it may take time for the storm clouds that
have rocked Asia, Russia and Brazil to clear...
"The risks around the world are still very much tilted toward lack of
growth, spare capacity and slowdown -- rather than toward economic
overheating," Summers said in a speech to the National Association for
Business Economics. "Concerns are about excess supply not excess
demand. And in many places worries about rising prices have given way to
concern about falling prices"...

A short but sweet health report on the world is also given--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990302/1j.html
T. Remital
(03/02/1999; 13:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2883)
Any bets?
I hate to be negative but just looking at todays action ...I feel 300 au and 7400 dow are
within a week away... Lets have another contest MK.......
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 14:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2884)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: (note use of the term "massive"...we knew this to be true)
New York-March 2-FWN--Silver futures tumbled here today
on fund selling, with the move accelerated when stop-loss
orders were hit, market watchers said.
Gold, however, managed to finish slightly higher after
short covering.
The [silver] move appeared to be brought about by some fund
selling, said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer with LFG
Bullion Services.
"I believe this was just a washout where a couple of
large funds tried to get out at the same time, they ran into
stops and it dropped," said Kaplan.
Gold was helped by technically inspired short covering,
although it did give up some of its gains late in the
session. The April futures ended up 30 cents at $288.
Kaplan noted funds had been selling gold consistently
lately.
"Yet they have not been able to get spot gold under
$285," he said. "With the breakout of a minor downtrend line
on the daily charts, I would assume some of them finally
said 'OK, we're not going to get too much more out of this.'
So we've seen some short covering."
For April gold, "massive" support was put at $286 to
$286.50. Major resistance was put at $291.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Usul
(03/02/1999; 14:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2885)
Gold
Words from Joannes Agricola:

"One man will say that I am doing what another had already
done long ago, and that this process is so well known that
it is unnecessary to waste so much paper on it."

Like the alchemists of old, we seek the value of gold
ANOTHER knew this value, from long ago, do we follow?
All paper will become waste- let it become gold
Peter Asher
(03/02/1999; 15:22:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2886)
T.Remittal
I don't think a week will do it, how about two weeks?. The whittling away of recent market gains that I've been tracing is about 100 Dow points and 15 of the S&P 500, from what I would see as a break to the downside. My guess is that the "dipsters" will still feed the distribution sharks for a few more sessions before they discover they're the bait. Gold, I feel, needs some "safe haven seeking" from stock refugees to kick start it, then it's definitely a "Harley".

As to your third supposition, our host has staged contests at intervals from three to five weeks apart. Add to that data, recent news content regarding prize enticement and the three week interval seems to be most likely. However before investing in this prognosis we should wait for Steve to plot it on a weekly chart with a moving average and bollinger bands. (As Forum contests are a new issue, the various wave theories will not be needed). Also prudence would dictate soliciting a forecast from Gandalf's crystal ball.
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 16:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 2887)
COMEX Gold warehouse Stocks
(Usul, you are a tough act to follow)

They're nursing their aching backs at the COMEX warehouses these days. For the second straight day, over 60,000 Troy Ounces of the precious yellow metal have found somewhere else to call home.
To put that in perspective, at the Start of Business, the Scotia Mocatta, Morgan Guaranty, and Republic National depositories had a combined total of 675,593 Troy Ounces of Registered gold. Nearly 10% waved goodbye to their familiar walls as the day came to a close. The janitors at Scotia Mocatta will be in for a shock this evening will all the extra floor space to be swept and waxed, as the full 64,257 troy ounces were removed from that depository.

As it now stands, the COMEX Depositories hold 604,506 Troy ounces for the registered parties, 126,540 Troy ounces as eligible stock, for an eye-pleasing total of 731,046 Troy ounces gold.

While a tidy little sum by this reporter's standards, the fact remains that 'the showroom floor' is drifting a wee bit to the thin side.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's report.
From the S.M. COMEX Depository, this is TownCrier saying, "HELLO!"...HELLO....Hello...hello...(echoing for a really, really long time.)
NORTH OF 49
(03/02/1999; 16:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 2888)
Alas Aristotle, it's off to the Crusades
To be true, I have not stirred from my tent in a fortnight. (my God, now you've got ME buying into this Indianna fantacy!!)
I will, with heavy heart however, have to return to my current project in a very dismal Sakhalin Island, Russia, shortly. Tis not in search of pure gold, but alas, black gold that beckons me---well ok--let's face it, it's my job.

I say "with heavy heart", as I am somewhat incommunicado during my absence, and the thought of missing out on the upcoming excitement in the PM markets is quite distressing.
It will be with you Sir, that I proxy my torch.

No49
Aragorn III
(03/02/1999; 16:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 2889)
Words of the day
"It's time for Japan to think creatively about the best use of all the tools of fiscal and monetary policy to create an expectation of confidence and renewed growth," U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said, in making the strongest suggestion to date by a U.S. policy-maker that the Japanese government should expand its money supply. Summers told the National Association for Business Economics, "We all agree on the importance of price stability, but it is important to recognize that the goal of price stability means avoiding deflation as well as inflation."

"Considering the risks it faces, Japan's promised fiscal stimulus needs to be fully implemented and sustained over the next few years. Its boost to the economy should also be accommodated by monetary policy." U.S. officials have hinted they would like to see the BOJ step up purchases of government bonds, putting more currency into circulation.

These words speak for themselves. I've a question for the money holders, the savers, in these two nations...

got gold?
JA
(03/02/1999; 18:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2890)
Town Crier
I found your last post interesting. My understanding is that there are 12 troy ounces in a troy pound. Someone will need to help me on how many troy pounds in a ton but for now I will assume 2000. If they had 731,046 ounces that equates to 60,920 lbs. and about 30 ton. I think I could fit 30 ton of gold in my garage. I guess that's why they call it the heavy metal.

Which makes Greenspans comment all the more laughable, that banks were selling gold because of high storage costs.
The Stranger
(03/02/1999; 20:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2891)
JA
I hope you had a good time in Utah over the weekend. I went skiing at Deer Valley on Sunday. I told my daughter that I was sorry I didn't run into the President while he was up there. She said, "I'll bet you've got a thing or two to tell him, Dad."
"No," I said, "I just wanted to run into him."
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 20:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2892)
How will the public react?
Peter A - Well back to your 3/1 #2812 - Sorry for the misunderstood response. I believe that panic and stock market are often synonymous. They, the marketeers, like to overreact to just about anything. (Breathing stops when Greenspan speaks.) I believe the panic will occur as you stated. Slow simmer to a full boil, so to speak. Good point about sitting at the feet of the Wright Bros. We often just need to ask oneself, I just need to ask my wife! Ha! Well, back to my daily reading. Thanks.
Richard, Oregon
(03/02/1999; 20:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2893)
Gold Recall
Did I miss it or is there NO update to the gold recall (exchange for paper) in India? Anybody?
SteveH
(03/02/1999; 20:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2894)
Good read and must understand from Rhody...
...thanks JA for spot post. Was on but must have got sidetracked. Was fun watching gold rise today.


Date: Tue Mar 02 1999 17:32
rhody (@ BillD: The demand increased. How do I know?) ID#413307:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In every case where 1 month lease rates increased while
3,6, and 12 month rates held steady or decreased, spot POS
was hit by short selling the next day. This has happened in
virtually every instance. It's the pattern, not the mere
backwardation that is significant. The pattern is one month
goes up, and silver is hit next day. EVERYTIME.

This week is Biblical as an example of this phenomena.
One month lease rose 3% yesterday morning. Look what happened
to spot yesterday and today! EVERYTIME!

Sorry to be so late in answering. Rhody
SteveH
(03/02/1999; 20:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2895)
April gold now $288.00
argghh!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 21:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 2896)
JA----gold, and what it weighs
The easiest manner in which to deal with weights is to train yourself to ALWAYS think metric. A tonne is a tonne is a tonne. One Million Grams.
(you are right, there are 12 troy ounces per troy pound, and while a troy ounce weighs more than a standard ounce, the standard pound with its 16 little ounces weighs more than a troy pound)--so stick with metric and you'll never go wrong. All you need to remember is that there are 31.103 grams in a troy ounce.

Doing the math reveals there to be 32,151 troy ounces per tonne. One tonne of gold occupies about two cubic feet (1'x1'x2' in dimension) Cost of storage is not a problem. Cost of security...IS!! Why? Because it is GOLD!!!!!
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 22:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2897)
COMEX follow up for JA
Sorry I neglected the end of your message.
The total COMEX inventories would be about 23 tonnes. If stored efficiently, the gold would occupy a space 10 feet by 10 feet by 4 to 5 feet high. A large walk-in closet would accommodate the volume.
Divided up equally among all U.S. residents, each person would get almost one-tenth of a gram, or in other terms, less than three-thousandths of a troy ounce.
POOF! All gone. Rather puts it all in perspective doesn't it?
TownCrier
(03/02/1999; 22:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 2898)
Sir Richard
I'll keep watch from the tower in that direction. This is not so much a gold recall as it is a scheme to get the gold savings out of the hands of the people (in exchange for interest bearing bonds) and put the gold into the hands that know what value means. I doubt the initiative will be that popular, as these people already know wherein the value lies. That is why they have the gold in the first place.
JA
(03/02/1999; 23:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 2899)
Stranger
Sorry' I don't always read my message before I hit sent and my fingers tend not to always put the "r" in your.
JA
(03/02/1999; 23:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2899)
Stranger
Yes, I had a great time and real nice visit with family. The weather was sunny and beautiful both Saturday and Sunday. It must have been a beautiful day on the mountain. Based on one of your previous posts, I had decided you timing in terms of equities investments is very good. Now I have decided you timing in picking ski days is very good as well. I have been skiing here in Idaho twice this year and both days it snowed all day with high winds at the top of the mountain.
I grew up in Utah but I don't believe Deer Valley was around back then, there was Alta, Brighton, and Park City and a few others.
I read in the paper while down there about Clinton's visit. I asked my brother why the governor didn't have him arrested for the major land grab in southern Utah just prior to the last election. An alternative would have been to call out the national guard and tell him he could refuel his plane but then would have to move on because Utah didn't want sex offenders running lose on it's ski slopes.


Town Crier

Looks like we are on the same wavelength, I went in to post this just as I saw your most recent post.

Your more precise measurements tell me that it's more like 23 tons of gold and it not only would fit in my garage, but it would actually fit in a small corner of my garage. It just doesn't sound like much gold in terms of the total scheme of things. In fact 731,046 ounces valued at $300 per ounce is only 219 million dollars worth. But then from what I have been reading here and other sites, apparently huge amounts of paper gold are being traded independent of the futures exchanges. The futures exchanges seem to be where the price gets manipulated. It is easy to see how that may be possible with such small amounts.
Gandalf the White
(03/02/1999; 23:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2900)
Dipsters and Day Traders
The Hobbits and I have been surfing the hotlinks of the five million "Daytraders" and have seen that their charts are all starting to look "a little topheavy" to the guru, and "scalping" the high flyers for a one point profit during the day, is now the name of the game. Soon their chances at Russian Roulette may have the same odds. The crystal ball is unusually dark and cloudy now, small flashes of light are spasmodically emitted. Like ANOTHER said, "We shall watch this gold market together, Yes?"
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2901)
Hear ye! Hear ye! Hear ye! Now appearing at The Gilded Opinion...
Supplies Tighten Further, Rationing Begins by James Turk / Freemarket Gold & Money Report
...A recent memorandum from the US Mint to the distributors of American Eagle Gold and Silver bullion coins tells the whole story. To prepare their distributors for the bad news about rationing coming later in the memorandum, it starts out with a few statistics to justify their statement that the demand for coins is "unprecedented". The memorandum states that: "During the first six months of calendar year 1998, average monthly sales of American Eagle Gold Bullion coins were in the range of 96,500 ounces per month. The second half of the year, sales climbed to an average of 210,000 ounces per month. Sales in January 1999 alone were 266,500 ounces."..."Until our supply of American Eagle Gold and Silver coins exceeds the demand, we regret that we will need to go to an allocation system." Call it what you will, that means rationing.

Follow the links from the USAGOLD Home Page to access this very important report.
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2902)
Y2K -- It's not just for breakfast anymore.
U.N. Official: Arab States Not Ready For Y2k Bug
01:47 a.m. Mar 01, 1999 Eastern

... U.N. officials said airports, Egypt's Suez Canal and electricity networks could be hit and the highly-computerized oil refining and water desalination plants of the arid, oil-rich Gulf states were particularly at risk.
"If they should stop, then millions of people would have no power and no water to drink. This is the biggest challenge facing our region," he said...

See it all-- (better use Cut&Paste for this one!)--
http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a0235rittz-19990227&qt=y2k&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 01:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 2903)
China to Maintain Stable Currency--Zhu
...China's foreign exchange reserves reached a massive $145 billion at the end of last year, roughly equal to the country's overseas debts...
"We want to implement a steady monetary policy, appropriately increase money supply, grasp a strong level of financial control and adjustment and maintain stability in the value of the renminbi (yuan)," Zhu says.
One of the chief financial tasks this year will be to raise China's ability to repay foreign debt, he says, but gave no details...

Now I KNOW you want details. Find them here--
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/ct.html
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 02:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2904)
Japan Pushes Down Overnight Rates Near Zero [shades of A. Lincoln's greenbacks]
...Japan's central bank today added 400 billion yen ($3.32
billion) to the banking system, helping push down the overnight
loan rate between banks as low as 0.02 percent, below the
central bank's target level of 0.15 percent.
"The overnight call rate slipped to zero and they
indicated there will be more easing in monetary policy...
More yen supplied by Japan's central bank typically reduces
the currency's value, helping Japanese exporters while making
imports more expensive.
"Many people want to buy dollars because of speculation
Japan may further ease its monetary policy..."

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Oooo, paper and fire...a bad combo! Try to catch this story before it gets bumped from Top Financial News--
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 02:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2905)
The Heavyweight weighs-in...today's markets likely to react?
Billionaire Buffett sees danger in stock market

2.10 a.m. ET (0710 GMT) March 3, 1999
WASHINGTON � Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Tuesday the U.S. stock market had seen virtually unprecedented increases in recent years and was in a "dangerous" period that could see stock values drop sharply.

Stocks had risen "terrifically" over the past 15 years, driven higher by lower interest rates and rising return on equity, Buffett told the ABC News "Nightline" program.

"After a while the very act of stocks going up starts drawing in other people who get excited about the fact that their neighbor made some money ... and that's when you get into the dangerous periods," he said...

Pulling no punches at--
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0303/f_rt_0303_8.sml
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 04:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2906)
JA, I'm awake...
April gold now $287.80...whoops .90.

USAGOLD
(03/03/1999; 09:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2907)
Today's Gold Market Report: A Mexican Standoff at COMEX and the New Japanese Zero
MARKET UPDATE (3/3/99): Gold gave up most of its early gains in yesterday's session by end of day when silver nosedived due to heavy hedge fund selling. The fact that COMEX gold stocks came down another 64,257 ounces after the close yesterday did not seem to affect trading this morning except possible to put the bears in a cautious mind-set.

Hence the market is at a Mexican stand-off at the moment with bears defending what appears to be $290 ceiling and the bulls buying in what FWN yesterday called "massive" amounts
around the $287 mark. Bridge reported the following yesterday: "Traders said the move up today was not surprising after Monday's commitment's report revealed that hedgers/commercials held a huge 71,812 net-long position while speculators were at a 52-week peak at 70,065 net-short. Traders said they believe these extremes could portend a long overdue bullish move."

"There's no smoking gun as to why gold is up," said one trader, noting that gold has held up quite well despite a stronger dollar and stock market. "It's quite resilient." "The fundamentals are favoring precious metals," added an analyst. "In general, things are getting more positive." The trading range has narrowed considerably -- an indicator that we may see a breakout.

The dollar was higher against the yen this morning after a key Japanese interest rate sank to near zero. The interest rate drop was the direct result of the Bank of Japan flooding the money markets with cash, according to an early Reuters report this morning.

Silver lease rates came down slightly prompting yesterday's sell-off as well as weakness in today's early going.

That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting happens. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals.

Ask for Marie. Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet.
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 09:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2908)
Money & Market Matters
FX IN EUROPE - Yen fades on cue against dollar (Reuters 3/3/99)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/tw.html

National savings boost must be key goal-Greenspan (Reuters 3/3/99)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/rb.html

Greenspan repeats Social Security warning-
Investing in stocks won't help nation care for retirees (CBS 3/3/99)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/capitol.htx?dist=hdlnbug&source=blq/yhoo

Treasury prices retreat (CBS 3/3/99)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 10:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2909)
Gold in the News
London--Mar 3--UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown today restated
the UK government's support for a range of enhanced debt relief measures
for the world's poorest nations, including the sale of at least US $1
billion worth of IMF gold...Story .15281

London--Mar 3--Merrill Lynch analyst William O'Neill believes any sales of
gold by the International Monetary Fund would be "parceled out at a slow
pace that would probably not disturb the market."
"It is our view that IMF gold sales are overrated as a negative factor
for gold and other than their psychological impact, we do not see such
sales as a meaningful price influence," he said. Merrill pegs the range
over the next 60 days between $280 and $300. By Elise Shaw, Bridge News,
Story .14826

Johannesburg--Mar 2--South African gold producer Anglogold said today that
it had revised down its output forecast for the first quarter of 1999 to 52
tons of gold from the 55 tons it had expected to produce...By I-Net Bridge, Story .15721

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 13:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2910)
Test
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 13:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 2911)
Closing N.Y. Metals -- FWN
Funds Sell Silver; Gold Little Changed
140242 GMT
New York-March 3-FWN--Silver futures continued to
retreat today on additional fund selling, sources here
said. Platinum also finished lower as it continues to
correct from a recent rally, while palladium eased in the
midst of a consolidation.
On the surface, gold appears to be uneventful,
finishing with a tiny gain despite the weakness in rest of
the complex. But one analyst wondered whether this just
might be the "calm before the storm," with gold possibly
getting set up for a short-covering rally.
Following Tuesday's weaker close and a soft start
today, several traders have pointed to fund selling--a view
reiterated by Tim Evans, senior commodities analyst with
Pegasus Econometrics.
May silver lost 7.8 cents to $5.2450.
He said the long liquidation was foreseeable in light
of the build-up of long positions by the reportable non-
commercial category.
"In effect, the funds were loaded to the gills with
silver," he said. "They were holding larger long positions
than they had during February of 1998, when the market
topped out at $7.50."
The key question for the market, said Evans, is whether
funds will completely liquidate or simply lighten up on
their positions, perhaps allowing silver a chance to recoup
some of its losses.
Despite the fall in silver, April gold held its own,
finishing with a slight gain of 30 cents to $288.30.
"Gold is churning sideways here," said Evans. "But
while it looks like nothing is going on, I think there is
potential here that this is the calm before the storm."
The most recent Commitment of Traders data showed that
funds have increased their net short position, he pointed
out. "That both cushions the downside and creates greater
upper potential on short covering."
While it's hard to forecast what might prompt a short-
covering rally, Evans pointed out that one possible trigger
could be the stock market. The cash S&P 500 index is
currently hovering not far above key support of 1,217, said
Evans. If this fails, some investors may opt to sell stocks
and buy gold, he continued.
Near-term resistance for April gold lies at Tuesday's
$290.50 high, followed by the Feb. 12 high of $292 and Feb.
2 high of $292.60.
"If we can get through this--and it's not that far
away--that basically means everybody who sold over the last
six weeks is now out of the money," said Evans. "At that
point, I think you have potential for a rally on the order
of $20 to $30."
He put support at last week's $286.50 low, the $285 low
of Feb. 16 and $284 low of Jan. 28. If these were to fail,
said Evans, he suspects any further downward move will be
limited because so many players are already heavily
short.
"I see potential we could get to a number like $283 or
$283.50 and have the market come right back up in our face,
because the market is heavily short here and will probably
only be able to attract a minor amount of incremental
selling."
A further indication that gold has some underlying
strength is the minimal amount of selling that has occurred
over the last couple of days while silver was "hit over the
head," said Evans.
"Gold is holding up well in an environment where the
other precious metals are under pressure," he said.
Furthermore, he said, gold might benefit from short
covering in silver that may now be possible after the
liquidation in this metal.
(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 15:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 2912)
Goldman Sachs gearing up for a retry at an IPO
Think about it...
What clearer signal for a market top could you ask for? If anyone would have a sense for the ballpark, Goldman Sachs would. And naturally, they would essentially ring the bell and cash out. Food for thought. (I'd tend to say they are too late) ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/03/1999; 15:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2913)
News for the Bond Watchers. See esp. Argentina.
Treasurys hit by fear
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990303/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

Argentina would cash in US bonds if adopts dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990303/bat.html
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 18:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 2914)
April gold now (down slightly) at
$287.70.

Just got done with my daily read.

Conclusion: Stock market is having trouble holding its own. Metropolecafe predicting a gold rally soon. Canola oil is made from the rape seed and that is what just happened to silver prices (raped). Greenspan warns of not putting money social security money into equities. ABC news things Gavleston, TX is doing right by not being in equities. Fed. study shows that people who make over 50K per year wouuld do better than those under 26K. Armstrong stings silver. Kaplan predicted drop in silver by COT estimates. Silver may be v- bottoming and Midas thinks this is a smoke screen to take attention away from a tightening gold market. Gold pundits are predicting a $20-30 move in the POG shortly. Goldman S. is breaking wind with rumors of an IPO and are rumored to be going long gold and looking for 25 million ounce of yellow. Mint has delivered over 98K ounces of Silver Eagles in first two days of March. One respected predictor of markets thinks VSE and gold are about to soar. Speaking of Soros, he thinks markets are overvalued and Greenspan warns of late-life investors to not take risks in Internet stocks. Silver lease rates are still high but golds are low. COT on gold is strong bullish in favor of gold as commercials are long with over 70K contracts and shorts 70k contracts: perfect situation for $30 runup. Mining juniors are holding their own on the VSE as they continue to remain steady or slightly up in face of a falling dow. Some think inflation is high and hidden in the stock market bubble. Panic index or whatever it is called is a -10 and usually pre-dates a market crash or large drop by two weeks. Other than that not much else going on. Did I miss anything?

And gold went to $287.90 while we were talking.

Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 18:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2915)
Please take the following with a grain of salt.
From: lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com
To: Gandalf the White
Subject: Bulletin !!! Major Gold Rally Imminent !!!
Date: Wednesday, March 03, 1999 1:15 PM


Le Metropole members,

A major gold rally is about to unfold. Our intelligence
network has informed us that the Asian official sector has,
indeed, been stepping up to the plate again and has been a buyer of physical gold. That is the reason the gold market has not collapsed under the weight of all the spec gold borrowings and short selling that has hit the market. The Asians love to buy on weakness and have been doing so with great stealth. The reason that the price of gold is going to ROAR UP any day now is that some producers have become very concerned about all this talk about collusion with
the bullion banks and are in the process of covering
hedges, to take on this gold borrowing and spec crowd.
These specs and gold borrowers are now massively short.
On Comex alone the large specs are net short 70,000
contracts. The OTC spec short position is many times that.
These mining companies are becoming increasingly nervous
about too close an association with the forces that are
holding down the price of gold.

The timing of this bull attack is imminent. A clue to all
of this is the plunge in the silver price. Why is silver tanking when the 1m silver lease rate is still at 7.5%. The gold lease rate is less than 1% for comparison's sake. We are assuming the "buyers" that we are talking about have some heavy gold tonnage to buy. The gold market is asleep. A way to create cover to buy gold in size without any "bells and "whistles" going off, is to crap out silver. That only brings on more demoralization in the precious metals arena and distracts market participants from noticing
the gold accumulation of the buyer. If we are correct,
the price of silver will go right back up again after
the buyers have finished their gold buying
( or short covering ) as they buy back their silver
short positions.

Goldman Sachs ( coincidentally ) has been a big gold
buyer this past week. I wonder why? They just went
on a road show to South Africa proclaiming their bearish
market outlook. Of course, they could be buying for a
client. What is important is that they are buying in size.
We suggest they know a change of short term strategy
is now being orchestrated. They are booking profits
on their short positions for their own account and, or,
for client accounts, before the avalanche of other
specs cover when the gold price breaches the $290 to $292
area to the upside. The price of gold could easily shoot
up to $315 as a result of a powerful short covering
rally.

We have been told by very well informed sources from
around the world that GATA is actually having some effect
in that we have raised the awareness level about
"collusive activities" in the gold market. This has
caused many uncomfortable questions to be asked.
The heat is on.

The gold price has turned up in foreign currency terms.
Often, that is a precursor of an upturn in the gold
price in dollars. Last September, Midas du
Metropole called on David Niven, James Darren,
Gregory Peck and Anthony Quinn to take out The
Guns of Navarone resistance at $290. They were our hereos
then as the bears were routed. We call them back
again and also have thrown in Indiana Jones and
Shaka, the great Zulu warrior, to help them.

So Be It !!!!

All the best,
Midas
=========
*****pick and choose the correct items and get rid of the chaf, and one will be ok. This may be considered to be advertising to the Sheeple and Dipsters --- Hope it works !
<;-)




Richard, Oregon
(03/03/1999; 19:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 2916)
Just talk!
MK- Nice look to the page although I'll miss the gold coin (in your face!)

TownCrier- (3/2 #2898) Yes, I know it's not a recall. I guess I was just trying to be nice and NOT call it a scheme. True, a scheme is a scheme and a thief is a thief. Why do I do that?

Rascal- (3/2 #2877) you are a "Thankful Dude! I honest could NOT of stated it better. Thanks for the words.
SteveH
(03/03/1999; 21:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 2917)
If cries of gold is going to go boom is any indicator...
of the near-term price of gold then look at above. Reading tonight sure did raise the willies in the small of kneck regarding everyone thinking gold is going to rocket. Frankly, I am tired of too many false alarms. Let's get this straight for the record. If you think gold is going boom up, then tell us why, not just that it is going boom up. Answer these questions: why now and not last month or next month, do we get a penalty shot if you are wrong or just hold future opinions along with grains of salt in our pockets. If gold is going to go boom, tell us why, tell us when, and tell us what happens if it doesn't (first born child, next Elton John concert tickets, what?). Ok?!

BTW, how far do you think it is going to go up?

got humor!

Hey, I like the one about the right of bears to arm or was that the right to bare arms, or ... ;-)
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 21:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2918)
Aristotle needs an education
(First let me say to SteveH--'Great commentary!')

Somebody please take me to school. In Gandalf's recent post was the line, "On Comex alone the large specs are net short 70,000 contracts."
Can ANYONE attempt to explain that? For each Futures Contract entered, isn't it true that BOTH a buyer AND a seller have been anonymously paired in filling the order? Otherwise you are left with merely Open Interest. It is here that maybe some insight can be gleaned as to whether more would-be buyers lie in wait below the current Contract price, or more would-be sellers are perched in wait for the Contract to reach a higher price.
So, for each filled contract, a buyer and seller are paired one-to-one, and it is with them in which the counter-party risk lies. Want gold? Trust a stranger to deliver? I don't know what the rate is for the Gold Contracts specifically, but for Futures Contracts in general fewer than 2% actually result in the transfer of goods. The bulk are 'neutralized' or offset through filling a second contract that carries the opposite obligation...again, paired one-to-one with a counter-party. Where do we get "net short" on COMEX? Or is the operative word "specs", which means they are the only sellers to be found in this market, and when they seek to offset by turning into Contract buyers, there will be no other sellers to be found, and the new Contract price will make us all flash our pearly-whites?

Professor?? Your student awaits enlightenment. ---Aristotle
ET
(03/03/1999; 22:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2919)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - I'm an old futures trader so maybe I can help you. Traders are divided into three categories for reporting purposes; large speculators, commercials, and small traders. I believe it's still the case that the specs and commercials have to report their positions every two weeks. When it is said the specs are net short 70,000 contracts it means that as of the last reporting period there were 70,000 more contracts sold short than bought long amongst the total group of large speculators. Example for clarification; 50,000 contracts long, 120,000 contracts short. Many traders tend to watch what the large specs are doing and the trend of their position. It is their belief that the large specs tend to 'call' any impending change in trend. If the net short position were to change to net long in the next reporting period, many would consider this to be very bullish. Generally the bulk of the positions are held by the specs and the commercials, the small traders making up a small percentage of all contracts. This info is contained in a report called 'Commitment of Traders'. Hope this helps.

ET
Aristotle
(03/03/1999; 23:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 2920)
ET--you are the man of the hour.
This element was news to me--"Traders are divided into three categories for reporting purposes; large speculators, commercials, and small traders." Thanks.

You can see from my post I originally thought the reporter was driving at COMEX having a "net short" bias, and after I talked my way through it, it dawned on me that maybe the focus was not so much on the "shortness of COMEX" (ha ha) but rather upon the position of the beast they were calling the large speculators. You, good Sir, confirmed my final suspicion, and I learned someting important--that the traders are categorized and monitored. So would you agree with me that the proper interpretation is that gamblers are selling and stable entities are buying?

"Squire! Saddle up fresh horses. I owe ET a pint at the pub." ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 23:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 2921)
Final test
night all
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/03/1999; 23:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2922)
Aristotle's question
In addition to ET's fine answer, you might be interested in reading S.J.Kaplan's daily comments at WWW.goldminingoutlook.com were he bases much of his prognostications on the COT reports of which ET speaks. Thanks ET, please share more of your prior training with us.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 00:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2923)
THIS WEEK IN GOLD ***COMMENTARY FROM THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL***
Hear ye! Hear Ye!

George Milling-Stanley's WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (February 22 - February 26, 1999) has been delivered. Please follow the links via the USAGOLD Home Page to "This Week in Gold."
Items discussed are Chairman Geenspan's comment regarding gold as an inflation indicator; speculative short-selling on COMEX; India's many gold maneuvers; gold imports to Dubai; and Russian gold mining.
el St.One
(03/04/1999; 01:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2924)
Prophecies
Nostradamus: One of his visions, per an old USA Gold Letter, calls for a shortage of two metals between April and March is this the year? ( yes April and March)
SteveH
(03/04/1999; 03:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 2925)
April gold STILL $287.60...
on the reading and tube front:

Monica was perky (perhaps too), great teeth, too much hair spray, intelligent, but somehow missed the "I shall not covet they neighbor's husband who is the President - 101" class. Also somewhat Naive at the beginning but now a millionaire and still Naive but at least she can pay her legal bill. Showed her lover as a smoothie with the act of seduction down to a T, but lacking in committment and honor. Said she became pregnant at some point but didn't recall if it was a 'first-child' (do recall that she didn't have interc...se though or sex, as she put it). Anyway abortion won.

Pres. was on C-Span just before Monica. Told Demos that country needed to pay down debt and save Medicare and SS with surplus. No argument here. Should have paid it down years ago. Paying down debt is right thing to do and Y2K friendly -- what is 50 billion dollars divided into 5 trillion, hmmm?

Silver might see a few more down days but generally per one pundit, "usually goes down three then up a bit." Today is day three.

Heard SA gold stocks are enjoying a few up days. How 'bout gold? OR, do we merely view the SA up-swing as an early indicator? That's what it is, an early indicator.

Long-term bonds -- I recall -- closed with a tad-higher rate yesterday. Isn't this an inflationary risk factor kind of thing?

Well, time for the gold-up-near-term-crowd to prove things right (for once) today. Good luck.

AEL
(03/04/1999; 06:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2926)
Y2K, cash, and the electronic economy

This is from one of the Y2K chat boards. Interesting. Any comments?

The following progression of events is essentially
inevitable now, simply based on the poll-recorded (facts!) percentages of people who say they will withdraw all or most of their bank accounts. Following is y2k best we can hope for (i.e. it may be worse, this is only 1999 stuff!):

- over 5% of population attempt to empty their accounts
- not enough cash to cover
- Clinton orders bank holiday
- demonetization of cash, you have until 1999-nn-nn to turn it in
- transition to all-electronic economy
- outcome branch: either y2k "road warrior" or electronic/fed
slave state, depending on how bad the code really turns out to be in 1999.

The above is now inevitable.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.
T. Remital
(03/04/1999; 07:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2927)
pardon me boy!!!
This could be a historic day ..the train just started to move..the last[ all aboard sounded ]..
this will be along journey upwards into the next century with many stops along the way to take
on more pasengers..
Aristotle
(03/04/1999; 07:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2928)
Good back-to-back posts
It would seem that AEL's post is the Cause, and T.Remital's post is the Effect. In anticipation of the 'human element' preceeding Y2K, and whatever follows, we can almost be sure of one thing...a proliferation of new RULES. Who can know what operational system the banks will adopt to get through this? One thing also is undeniable...the government's simple solution to nearly every problem is to try to throw money at it. What would that do to the value of the dollar? The only way to exercise a measure of control over your liquid wealth is to hold it in the form of gold. That much seems clear. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/04/1999; 07:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2929)
wow
The 30-yr T-Bond responded to the open of trade with a yield that spiked up to 5.719%. Somebody felt the need to unload.

Meanwhile, gold is on a race to the upside. Has anyone wondered why dollar/gold oz stays near $286.5 during trading around the world, and always makes its moves during New York trading? Check out the graph.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 08:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2930)
Today's Gold Market Report: Quiet Day, Market Guru Says Gold on Launchpad
MARKET UPDATE (3/4/99): Gold tracked sideways this morning as the euro descended the depths of hell. The dollar hit a three month high versus the yen. The ECB said it would leave rates alone so as not to send the euro into a fatal swoon. All in all, a bearish environment for the gold, yet it continues to hold its own in a very narrow range.

Top U.S. market timer and "Timer of the Year", Don Wolanchuk, in an interview at Stockhouse.com (Thank you, Stockhouse.com, for passing along your interview along with
your kind note.) said that "Gold will set an all-time high."

"In my view, " said Wolanchuk who has become something of a legend for his market calls, "gold has finished a 17-year bear market. It's ready to blast off....Everybody hates gold and all the metals and all the commodities. You can't have a bottom until everybody is out. And everybody is out of the gold sector." Wolanchuk goes on to say that inflation will be back and that gold we one of the greatest beneficiaries along with other natural resources and resource stocks. I am seeking permission from Stockhouse to reproduce the interview in full at the Gilded Opinion.

That's it for today. It has been generally a quiet morning with little in the way of news. We will update if anything interesting happens. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie. Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet.
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 09:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 2931)
Gold-related trivia/news from around the world
Ottawa--Mar 3--Canada's international reserves fell US $1.09 billion in February to US $22.355 billion, the Finance Department reported today. Reserves a year earlier totaled US $21.310 billion. Official government operations increased reserves by $258 million. Gold holdings remained at 2.5 million ounces. Bridge News, Story .4821

Tokyo--Mar 4--Spot gold prices held above US $286 per ounce despite the stable US dlr/yen during the Asia trading time, while expectations of a further decline in the silver market also discouraged players from buying gold, dealers said. Spot palladium was weaker following the overnight tumble in the US market, but dealers hadn't changed bullish forecasts. Story .2200

Hong Kong--Mar 4--The US dollar continued its recent hop-skip-and-jump against the Japanese yen, managing to chalk up gains of more than 1 yen for the second consecutive day in Asia. The pair marked another high for the week at 122.78 with market players citing option-related levels and continued general uncertainty surrounding a recovery in Japan as directing the day's trade. The strong US dollar kept the euro under the gun after a heavy overnight session. By Paul Scanlon, Bridge News, Story .700

Johannesburg--Mar 4--South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange all-share index was up half a percentage point at midday as good institutional demand from both local and offshore players dominated the market. At 1200 local (1000 GMT) the JSE all-share index was 0.49% better and the all-gold index surged by 2.19%. By Tim Smart, I-Net Bridge, Story .1162

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/04/1999; 10:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2932)
test
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 10:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2933)
Y2K perspective that may prove useful to you. The more you know...
Beware the after shocks
http://www.brw.com.au/newsadmin/stories/brw/19990301/1359.htm

The Psychology of Anxiety and the Y2K Issue
http://www.bankinfo.com/year2000/anxiety.html

Combating Customer Paranoia . . . Before the Year 2000
http://www.bankinfo.com/year2000/paranoia.html
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 10:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2934)
****A CONTEST IS CALLED****HEAR YE! HEAR YE! TO THE CASTLE! A CONTEST IS CALLED*****
On the ramparts a loan figure can be seen pacing
His figure cut 'cross the leaden sky
Cape and hair blowing in the wind
one hand gripping his sheathed sword
the sun sets hidden 'hind a bank of clouds
evening draws and the hall is now brightened
within Elsinore's walls...
His gaze moves toward the infinite horizon
His troubled eyes cloak nothing
His careworn voice still firm but concerned:

"To Y2K or not to Y2K that is the question
Whether 'tis nobler in mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of power plant blackouts
And phones that do not ring and water that does not run
Or make preparations against them? To store: to bottle;
What next? And by a cache of gold to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks that assets
are heir to, 'tis a balance devoutly to be wished.

To prepare or not to prepare: Ay there's the rub;
For in preparation we find consolation; or do we?
For it is in the acts of our fellows that this web is spun around us
and nations beyond our grasp.
When we stop to look around us, must give us pause
That gives us calamity anew and not time enough to fend it
For who would bear the whips and scorns of computer breakdown
without a proper shield.
There is more to this than meets the crafty eye
some tangles that need discussion....."

This lonely, knightly figure moves off rampart to the warmth of the hall
where the knights and ladies have gathered near the table round.

"What say you of preparations? Of computers and assets lost.
Do we make our move now? Or do we wait for Winter solstice?
It is true that we can earn interest on our Treasury, or we can lose it all
in the flash of an electrode."

"So how prepare you? Or do you prepare at all?
Bonus points will be awarded for those who find interest
in the unforeseen event, for it seems as time moves forward
It is not the one time event that will haunt us
but the army of events that follow in the New Year's wake.
Will this be the year we face our sea of troubles or
The year when Christ and his saints slept (to steal a comely title)."

-----------------------------------------
So we call a Contest at this Table Round of posting at the FORUM -- posts confined to the topic above. You can speak whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends and.......Remember, Hamlet's tragic flaw was to hesitate to his ultimate demise. So knights and ladies, do not yourself hesitate!

Let the contest begin.

And in closing, the words of the Bard (one of the most famous passages in all of literature from the same play):

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry,
This above all: to thine ownself be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.

A tough guideline to follow in this age of debt, but there's wisdom here nevertheless. Onward, my fellow knights and goldmeisters. To borrow the phrase of our own missing bard:
"We watch this new gold market together, yes!" And.......We honor him with a seat kept empty at this table round in hope of his timely return. MK
Usul
(03/04/1999; 11:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 2935)
Prophecies
Pr�s loing defaut de deux grands luminaires,
Qui surviendra entra l'Avril et Mars:
O quel chert�! Mais deux grands d�bonnaires
Par terre et mer secourront toutes pars.

- Nostradamus, Century III, Quatrain 5

In English:

Shortly after the shortage of the two metals
which will occur between April and March,
how expensive life will become! But two heads of state of noble birth
will bring help by land and sea.
Usul
(03/04/1999; 11:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2936)
Prophecies- April and March?
el St.One:- Your point about April and March, as opposed
to March and April, is interesting; does this mean, for
example, April 1999 to March 2000? Or is Nostradamus
simply contriving to rhyme March (of course, the original
rhyme is lost on translation to English). Nevertheless,
Nostradamus could conceivably have written a different
verse in rhyme had he intended to stress March to April.
I am inclined to favour March to April, perhaps meaning
that the shortage of metals will begin in this time period,
duration unknown.
A surprising number of Nostradamus verses have been
correlated with real historical events. However, not all
of them by any means and some of them seem incorrect.
So, let us keep an open mind, it will be interesting if the
current gold shortage at the US mint turns into something
on a grander scale in the next two months, but that
isn't meant to be investment advice.
Gold Dancer
(03/04/1999; 11:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2937)
Usul
Great post. I am inclined to take it exactly as stated.
April 1999 to March 2000 if only because that is what the
gold stock charts are telling me: The South African golds
up into March to May of 2000. This is going to be interesting to say the least. I do think we are getting closer by the week to blast off. It looks like this month
is recovery and April is blast off on the gold stocks. Your
or rather Nostra's prediction fits into this.

Lets be a little more patient; the gold party is about
to begin in earnest.

Of course I have thought this before and been wrong but
I still own all my gold etc. and even managed to move some
money around the markets into more RANGY at under $2. So
all has not been lost and the future is coming......

Go Gold and Go GATA.

Thanks, Gold Dancer

USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 12:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 2938)
Correction
'twould be nice if understood the uses of the words "lone" and "loan".....Oh boy. Try to ignore it......
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2939)
Know Your Customer' gete Judiciary hearing
WASHINGTON,DC--Thursday,March 4,will be a big day on Capitol Hill for those concerned about the proposed"Know Your Customer"rules,which have generated more than 140,000 opposition comments(with only 120 in support)to the federal agencies. These rules would force banks to spy on their customers and strip away the Fourth and Fifth Amendment protection of the U.S. Constitution.

At 10 am, the House Judiciary Committee's subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law will hold a hearing on the "Know Your Customer"regulations.Rep. Ron Paul(R,TX)will be testifying against the rules in support of his legislation,HR516,which would stop the proposed rules.His legislation already has the bipartisan support of 40 cosponsors.

Also on Thursday,the committee on Banking and Financial Services will begin work on HR10,which deals with financial modernization.Rep. Paul,along with Rep. Tom Campbell(R,Calif.)will introduce an amendment that would stop the"Know Your Customer" rules and prevent federal agencies from ever attempting such a move in the future.The amendment in the Banking Committee may be referred to as"Amendment 8."

Rep. Paul is a member of the Committee on Banking and Financial Services and was the first Member of Congress to speak in opposition to "Know Your Customer."

Reprinted without anybody's permission.

IMHO as I said on this forum a few months ago Rep Paul is a strong advocate for back to the Gold Standard,last presidential election nominated by the Libertarian Party for President,and my choice right now,for President in 2001.I think he would be the one to put things back together after Y2K...................beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2940)
(No Subject)
TEST
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2941)
TEST
Unable to post.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 2942)
Unable to post
Test
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 2943)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 2944)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 12:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 2945)
Unable to post
Testing...........beesting
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2946)
Unable to post
Test--------March 4,1999
Peter Asher
(03/04/1999; 13:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2947)
beesting
Hit "reload" after you post and don't see it onthe Forum page
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 2948)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2949)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2950)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 2951)
Somethings Wrong!
I am unable to post and I lost some previous posts.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 13:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2952)
Unable to post
Haven't been able to post for the last 2 hours.
beesting
(03/04/1999; 14:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2953)
Unable to post
Sorry about that all the posts came up at the same time on my computer.
Ron Pauls speech today can be seen at:http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec99/kyc-hearing-calsc.htm


Again very sorry about all the space taken!
JA
(03/04/1999; 14:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2954)
beesting
It looks to me like you are posting just fine. I think I did the some thing the other day. When you can't see your post, hit refresh so you are looking at the latest posts.

IMHO stands for what?
Jeff
(03/04/1999; 15:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2955)
Test
Testing the posting of messages.

IMHO is Internet slang for 'In My Humble Opinion'
SteveH
(03/04/1999; 15:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2956)
April gold
While y'all can't find your posts, gold just crossed the $290 barrier overseas. You heard it. $290!

I even show a spike on quote.com to $291 but didn't hold. Let's hope Murphy was right. Let's get this thing rocking and rolling.

kaaaching!
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 15:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 2957)
Closing N.Y. Metals: FWN: 142110 GMT
Firmer; Silver Up Slightly After Sell Off

New York-March 4-FWN--The precious metals finished
slightly higher to higher here today, although the
complex was described as generally quiet.
May silver managed a 2.8-cent gain to $5.2730 after
having sold off from a Tuesday high of $5.58 to a Wednesday
low of $5.17.
"It was pretty quiet, but we're finishing the day up
slightly on a bounce from the major sell off of the last two
days," said Glenn Toth, vice president with Commodity
Resource Corp. "There is really no news to speak of."
April gold, meanwhile, added $1.20 to settle at $289.50
in a market that sources say is remaining range-bound.
"It doesn't want to go out of its range," said Toth.
"We're up a little bit, but still below the high of a couple
of days ago ($290.50 on Tuesday). It's pretty much range-
bound...but mostly sideways."
A couple of floor traders reported that Goldman, Sachs
was a featured buyer again today and has been for a couple
of months now. One added that J. Aron was also a featured
buyer.
Toth put support for April gold at $286, with
resistance at $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
HopeingII
(03/04/1999; 16:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2958)
COMEX Gold
Down a further 69,150 oz as per a post
from KITCO. I did not verify.That's almost
200,000 oz in 4 days.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 16:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2959)
Closing COMEX Gold Inventory report
The COMEX Gold Depository at Scottia Mocatta was again the scene of much cursing and gnashing of teeth among goldbrick watchdogs. For the third time this week, they not only watched, but actually had to help move two tonnes of gold out the warehouse doors.
Today, the trend resumed after yesterday's one-day break. Over 69,118 troy ounces of Registered Gold inventory received marching orders from the owners. There was added excitement among the Eligible stocks when an exuberant 32 ounces were seen breaking ranks and leaving with their Registered brethren. One of the Daring Thirty-two, as they have come to be called, was heard to cry out as he passed through the heavy Scotia Mocatta doors, "The Sun! My God, I can see the Sun!"

The mood was more somber at Morgan Guaranty and Republic National, where guards saw to it that there was no similar exodus.

In total, the day started with 604,406 Registered ounces, and after the Registered stock at S.M. was reduced by HALF, the day ended with 535,288 ounces of Registered Gold all asking the not-so-rhetorical question, "When will I have my day in the sun?"
Reduced by the now legendary Daring Thirty-two, who proved that it pays to "Dream big, Grasshopper," the Eligible stock stands at a wistful 126,508 troy ounces. The movement represented nearly 10% of all COMEX gold inventory...leaving 661,796 hoping for a brighter tomorrow.

From the ever-more-spacious Scotia Mocatta vault, this is TownCrier warning you to "Keep your distance...they are likely to put you to work if you show up here tomorrow!"

Figures are courtesy of FWN and are used by permission. Commentary is a USAGOLD Round Table exclusive.
Richard, Oregon
(03/04/1999; 19:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 2960)
Silver Prices in Mid 70s??
Mid 70s Silver/Gold Rush
Hey, can anyone give me some details on the silver price in the mid 70s?? I lived in Phoenix Az at the time and I remember seeing appliance ads(washer/dryer, etc.) in the paper for like $20-$60(??) in pre1964 quarters. I should of saved the ads, not into PMs at the time. Anybody know what years and do they recall similar ads?? Details??
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 19:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 2961)
Merrill Lynch "Neutral" on Gold? What's Next? Also, Brazil Moves to Quell Inflation.
In the "You're Not Going To Believe This Category:

Merrill Lynch Goes from Negative to Neutral on Gold
New York--Mar 4--COMEX April gold futures settled up $1.20 at $289.50 per ounce, despite the dollar's jump to a 3-month high against the yen. Traders noted that one large trade house was a heavy buyer, which helped push gold to higher levels.
* * *
"It's one big player again. They have been the market and they are having their way with it," said one trader, noting that the company bought a tranche of 1,000 lots of gold at one point in today's session....

Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch, said that comments out of Switzerland, indicating that any gold reserve sales would not start until late 2000 or early 2001, were supported and have "alleviated some concerns."

It seems highly unlikely there will be significant European central bank sales and it's one reason why we've changed our rating in gold to neutral after having a negative rating for years," he said.

From Bridge News with permission. http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
-------------------------------

Brazil raises interest rates to 45% from 39% to stem inflation. (Bloomberg 3/4/99)
``Our role is to make sure price increases don't become permanent,'' said Arminio Fraga, a former fund manager for George Soros who now heads up Brazil's central bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&touch=1&T=markets_newsfeat99.ht&s=40052767

turbohawg
(03/04/1999; 19:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2962)
an excerpt ...
... from the InvesTech (Jim Stack) update tonight:

>As noted on Tuesday's hotline, inside research from a reliable source suggests that tomorrow's employment data will come out a LOT stronger than economists expect with over 350,000 new jobs created and the Unemployment Rate dropping to new lows. If so, it could mean a wild
Friday for both bonds and stocks. <

SteveH
(03/04/1999; 20:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 2963)
April gold now $289.40...
Ebay maple leaf with 2 hours to go:

1999 Mint Silver Maple Leaf Y2K 4 Eagle Lover
Item #71516380

Coins & Stamps:Coins:US:Gold




Currently
$11.50
First bid
8.00
Quantity
1
# of bids 5 (bid history) (with emails)
Time left 2 hours, 31 mins +


So who said silver is $5.21?

Reading: Today I learned COT still shows silver may go to 4.80 although it was up today a few cents. Gold showed a run up the upper bollinger came down to middle middle band and then rose again raising the upper bollinger in an upsweeping motion to then move sideways where it is now. Then somewhere in there someone bought something at $291 but nobody followed. I learned that China will probably devalue, Brazil may default, and Japan is looking to put a program in place to employ one million unemployed workers. Labor stats coming out tomorrow are likely to show a hotter than expected "low" employement rate meaning inflation is a danger. Long bond still flirting with highs or lows depending on if you mean rates or yields, but it is returning higher interest rates: meaning risk is being factored in. Gold is rising with the dollor are rising with the market. Crash index is a whopping -10 on a scale from I believe -10 to 10 where -10 means a crash is pretty much a foregone conclusion (like the China devaluation). Gold still likely to bounce and Merril Lynch has gone from negative to neutral on gold. Next thing won't you know, they will be saying the day's price increase beat expectations and then we know we have a ticket to the big game. VSE and VSE mining index were up for the day. The know your customer proposal by the FDIC will be undergoing a public hearing and is noted to have had over 140K negative letters or emails and only about 4 positive emails. Other than that not much else going on or is there? Peter, Gandalf, Aristotle, USAGOLD, and the rest of the pack what say you?

USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 20:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 2964)
Steve H....
Your summons serve as an excuse to get some things on the table resulting from today's activity, even though on the surface it seemed like pretty much a non-day.

I am struck with the fact that gold got clobbered at the $290-92 mark less than a month ago because of the heavy short selling by "one trader." Do you remember that? Some trader, presumably Goldman Sachs, "sold" 1000 contracts according to reports and killed what up til then had been a solid rally. Now we are told in tonight's Bridge report that that "one trader" had purchased 1000 contracts driving the market higher. In my mind there is very little question that it is the same firm filling its short it sold a few weeks earlier. The market serves up its own kind of retribution and there are those who respect that and read the bold handwriting now appearing on the wall.

At the same time I am intrigued with the large amount of gold moving out of COMEX warehouse stocks -- close to 200,000 ounces this week. This follows the first inverted market I have seen in gold in a decade -- at least the first that I noticed. What is going on? Somebody is taking delivery and that is perhaps what Merrill "We are now 'neutral on gold' Lynch and Goldmand Sachs have suddenly decided to react to. We heard from a top trader today that these deliveries are associated with the inverted market of last week.

I think we are in the midst of a sea change in the gold market, and though it is developing slowly, the signs are unmistakable. The insiders know it and that's why their public posture is changing.

At the same time, there is no doubt in my mind that the amount of education going on at this site (and others) as well as in a proliferation of newsletters has taken the public to the next level of understanding as to what is going on not just in the gold market but in "all" the markets. I was struck during the recent Greenspan testimony not just with the questions about gold manipulation, but also the questions about manipulation of the bond market as well. Isn't it extraordinary to you that these questions would be asked of a Fed chairman? It reflects how far the public has come -- how distrustful, indeed, how cynical in this highly amoral, cynical age.

A good section of the public would no more believe the press pablum that gold is held in a range because suddenly central banks were dumping it to pay their storage costs (as Mr. Greenspan would have us believe) than they would that the Federal Reserve was being run by alien force from Pluto.

The world is changing before our very eyes, Steve, and though some would choose to remain childlike in the face of it all hoping only that their credit card lines remain open, the stock market remain high and Friends not be taken off the air, there is a growing minority that understands that the country is in trouble -- morally, politically and economically.

Nuff said for one night. Keep the faith, gentle knight.

There is much excitement ahead of us.
Peter Asher
(03/04/1999; 20:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2965)
Steve
All I can add to your very well laid out scene is this. If "They" are going to coninue to launch "Counter Free Market Insurgecies" any more, it's now or never. It may be time for "Them" to go with the flow and ride the manipulation gravey train in a new direction. Just imagine Gold with these guys playing it to the upside.
TownCrier
(03/04/1999; 20:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 2966)
News you can Use
Requires registration to FT.com/Financial Times (free). Go ahead, you'll do it eventually. Summaries are from the Crier.

HEADLINE--SUCRE: Government fails to halt slide

Ecuador's currency, the sucre, fell by 27 per cent yesterday...could it happen to you?
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q817d6.htm

HEADLINE-- JAPAN: Banks fear Y2K problems

Western banks are wary of exposure due to Japan's poor rating of Y2K compliance--in the third tier, fourth being the worst.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q804ba.htm

HEADLINE-- INDIA: Budget scheme to attract 'idle' gold

A voluntary "gold for interest-bearing paper scheme." Upon bond maturity the original weight of deposited gold is returned. A dubious scheme that is reminiscent of the U.S. Social Security program--redemptions dependent upon continuous deposits.
http://www.ft.com/search97cgi/vtopic?action=view&VdkVgwKey=%2Fapache%2Fdocs%2Fhippocampus%2Fq806d6%2Ehtm&DocOffset=1&DocsFound=174&QueryZip=%3CMany%3E%27gold%27&Collection=Coll2
Gandalf the White
(03/04/1999; 21:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 2967)
Richard,Oregon --- Silver coins
If my memory is correct, twas 1981 when the Hunt Bro's made a try to corner the silver bullion market -- did very well until they tried to sell some and found that they were the only "buyers" around. Everyone else was pulling out the old sterling candle sticks and pre-'64 90% silver coins and selling them to the "melters". Silver coin offers moved up to the level just over 23 times face in the Seattle area. The Hobbits had been collecting the old silver dimes quarters and halves for years, and really went "allout" in the prior few months. They decided "NOW" was the time, and had me take in a "few" of those old heavy cloth Fed Reserve bags full of coins to the local buyer. He was an old time hockshop owner in the "Pike Street Market" that never had lost a dollar in his dealings. I knew him well as I had bought from him for years. Well that day the multiplier was 23 times face ! (THE high since that day long ago.) I emptied out the bags into his counting machine while he inspected the silver river flowing out of the stacks of coins. He smiled as he wrote out the check for $56,230., knowing that I would immediately take it to the bank on the corner, and bade me good luck. The next day the silver balloon popped and he never spoke to me again before he died. The Hobbits quickly determined that silver was not anything as good as GOLD and have been doing the same as the Comstock gold miners of the late 1800's and been tossing that grayish stuff out of their way for years. Memories !!
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/04/1999; 21:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 2968)
Steve...and all
Let me add one more thing of which you are probably well aware of but please forgive me, if I state what already might be obvious. This is for the benefit of all posters and lurkers:

I learned very early in the gold trade that nothing in the fundamentals or technicals was as important as who was doing what to whom on a daily basis in the markets. That perhaps is what is so intriguing about them. Ultimately, the fundamentals and technicals come into play so they obviously cannot be ignored, but when you get up in the morning and head for that screen, it's a war and the traders know it, the moviemakers know it, and so do the people who are sincerely interested in understanding how these markets work.

We make certain that the FWN reports appear here at USAGOLD frequently and went out of our way to get permission to do so. Do you know why that is? You would never hear about Goldman Sachs being a big buyer of gold today from traditional sources because the general public could care less. But this means a great deal to those in the trade which make up the bulk of FWN's subscribers. So their report suddenly becomes valuable (watch their subscriptions go up tomorrow.) But it is valuable for one simple reason: It tells who is doing what to whom.

My concerns about gold manipulation going back for the past few years was based on this consideration. It was apparent that somebody was doing something to somebody, with gold acting as it was despite the fundamentals. So who, what and whom? It became a matter of flushing it out. We are now beginning to get some answers. As our understanding grows, the long bear market will recede.

We have built the foundation. Investors now know that gold is money and that it should be purchased for defensive purposes -- as a hedge. This was the theme of The ABCs of Gold Investing and that theme was arrived at after long and careful deliberation. This argument takes the wind out the shorts' propaganda. They can no longer tell us why gold isn't going to go up, because we no longer care. We simply want to survive the monetary nonsense being perpetrated against us.

More and more people everyday realize that they do not want to pay the price for the socialists' schemes. Now most can read Andy Smith's propaganda and understand it for what it is. This is not an objective market observor, but an analyst with an ax to grind. What's more many lay men could construct a viable opposing argument.

Are you beginning to see what I mean? Nothing....Nothing stands in the face of an idea whose day has come. And no amount of propaganda can overcome sound, intellectually arrived at understandings. We always knew it; we are just now beginning to see it in applied. I'm sure that with the advent of the internet, the proliferation of talk radio and other alternative media, other sacred cows will end up McDonald's fare.

Now I have said enough for one night. More some other time.
ET
(03/04/1999; 21:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2969)
Futures
Aristotle, GTW - if you have any questions about trading futures I'll be happy to advise. I've been trading them since 1987. Lost my ass the first couple of years but have done nicely since. I haven't been trading much other than the grains. There doesn't seem to be much logic in the markets right now. I don't expect the paper markets to go higher but at the same time I'm worried about a liquidity squeeze if they go south. It looks to me like they're doing their best to hold things where they are. The physical gold accumulation has got to be on everyone's mind and I think that is one reason the bond market is tanking. I think the fireworks are just beginning in the gold market. I've gotten three mails in the last week from friends wanting to know what and how to buy some large quantities, we're talking 401K money here. The herd seems to be on the verge of a stampede.

Aristotle wrote;

'So would you agree with me that the proper interpretation is
that gamblers are selling and stable entities are buying?'

It looks like a short squeeze to me. I don't see how the shorts can hang on in the face of this physical demand. They've got a lot of money on their side but this seems to be about wealth preservation so I believe this gold market is going to skyrocket. Beats me as to when but it would seem sooner rather than later. Y2k seems to be driving the timing of this move.

ET
Richard, Oregon
(03/04/1999; 22:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 2970)
Silver Coins!
Gandalf - Great story! I hope you took that check to market and "bought your weight in gold". 23X seems to agree with my memory. $10 in pre'64's became $230. But the ads I remember were when I lived in Phoenix, 1971 - 1977. Ive been in Oregon ever since and it wasn't here. Someone must have a chart of silver prices back then. Anyone else with details on the mid 70's silver ads in the newpapers? Washers and dryers I remember seeiing in ads for $10 to $20 in pre'64 silver coins.
JA
(03/04/1999; 22:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 2971)
Jeff
Thanks- I had seen IMHO so many times I thought it was something I should know but was frankly a little embarrassed to ask.

ET
When You begin that futures trading class I would like to enroll. I have also been trading commodities off and on for about the same amount of time but never consistently made money.
Farfel
(03/04/1999; 23:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 2972)
Senator Richard Bryan CONFRONTS Rubin RE: IMF GOLD SALES!

MARCH 04, 18:42 EST Senator Against Selling IMF Gold
By TOM GARDNER
Associated Press

Writer RENO, Nev. (AP) � A proposal to sell some of the International Monetary Fund's vast gold reserves would be disastrous for Nevada's mining industry as well as the emerging countries the IMF is trying to help, Sen. Richard Bryan said Thursday. Putting additional gold on the open market would drive low prices even lower in an industry already reeling in Nevada and the West, the Nevada
Democrat said. ``We've had hundreds and hundreds of miners laid off,'' Bryan said in a telephone interview from Washington. ``It's had a real impact on Nevada families, on sales tax revenues. Entire communities in the mining areas of the state have been hurt,'' he said. The metal has languished in the $280-$290 an ounce range for months, below the break-even point for many mines. ``To put additional
downward pressure on the price of gold by selling from the International Monetary Fund's reserves could cause additional mine closings and major layoffs in the industry,'' the senator said. Bryan, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, met Tuesday night with Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to urge him to join in opposition to such a plan. ``He promised to take a look at it,'' Bryan said. The
senator said he also told the treasury secretary that such a selloff could harm poorer countries that produce gold. For example, mining represents 37 percent of Ghana's exports, 36 percent of Mali's and 24 percent of Guyana's, according to 1997 figures. Bryan said he got word this week from some
Nevada gold producers that the sale of IMF gold was back on the table. IMF spokesman William Murray said the suggestion has been floating around for several years. ``There have been notions kicking around among our shareholders, particularly the UK, back starting in 1992, to sell a modest
amount of IMF gold to help finance soft loans to the world's poorest countries,'' he said from Washington. `It's not a bailoutlike Russia or Brazil or Asian ountries,'' Murray said. IMF critics in Congress have opposed bailout efforts in the past. New Jersey Rep. Jim Saxton was among House Republicans who last year complained that the IMF should be selling off some of the gold reserves or borrowing from global capital markets rather than seeking aid from Congress. IMF's assets include more than 100 million ounces of gold. It has sold some of those reserves from time to time since the 1950s. One recent proposal called for the sale of up to 5 million ounces to help cover a financing gap
for a loan operation known as the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, Murray said. In the past, Japan and Germany, the two biggest IMF shareholders after the United States, have opposed touching to gold. Deputy IMF Director Stanley Fischer told Congress in September he opposed the sale of gold reserves because they provide assurances to members of the organization's financial viability. Murray
said Thursday that no sale of gold is imminent and that if it ever took place, it would occur over a period of time. ``It wouldn't be dumped on the market. We're not in the business of disrupting financial markets.'' The 182-nation IMF was created after World War II to keep an eye on the global monetary and economic system. Part of its role is to provide financial and technical assistance to countries that are under severe economic strain, Murray said. In addition to its potential effect on Nevada's No. 2 industry, which has seen some 1,800 layoffs in the past 15 months, Bryan doesn't think the proposal would work anyway. ``They're trying to ease the debt replacement problems, but these countries are so far in that there's no way they're ever going to be able to get themselves out,'' he said.
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2973)
There is no ONE thing...
"The world is changing before our very eyes" is what USAGOLD said recently. Might I provide a modification to that thought? I would say instead, "The world OF GOLD is changing before our very eyes"!
The world has indeed seen its days of changes over the last several decades...shifting balance of power, shifting national boundaries, and shifting sense of national purpose. Recent years have seen booming economies visit all neighborhoods. Today's economic basket cases were yesterday's envy of the world. With the arrival of the 1990's, the world attained "the best of times". Try to explain to your own satisfaction why "the worst of times" is an unwelcome visitor diligently making the rounds like an encyclopaedia salesman also running for public office.
Human history trained men to be mindful of their defense in a military aspect. Thankfully, that world is growing ever stranger to our modern thought. Small flare-ups of civil unrest seem out of place, and the world response, when deemed necessary, is akin to a business deal in the general perspective. This is a changed world, but further change is now on forced hold.
Keynes had a patch...a battle dressing for a wounded world. When the patient recovers, does not the bandage come off? The healthy patient would in his own fashion discover the cause of the rot that afflicts him, and defy doctors orders by removing the cast and bandage that has not been replaced or lifted in decades! The reek of a spreading gangrene is training men to once again be mindful of their defense--in an economic aspect. A strong foundation must be built of something more lasting than credit remittance and confidence.
There is no ONE thing that signals that this is the time the bandages come off. To witness the ill effects of a doctor's benign neglect of other patients is to say "Not me too!" Those who watched as their life's savings decayed in their fingers might be said to be victims of geography--suffering because they were citizens in a country that brought about their own currency destruction. I say instead they were victims of the old school of thought--reliance upon the national systems to ensure the common defense.
The new school of thought is taught by tough lessons. You have an opportunity to learn by those already schooled in hard knocks. The new school dismisses reliance upon the common defense by central authorities. Economics is the 'physics' of human behavior. INDIVIDUAL human behavior...interacting with other individuals toward what he deems best serves his needs. There is no excuse (other than habit of old school mentality) to be caught in dire economic straights when your 'geography' is visited in turn by the inevitable post-Keynesian currency rot.
Gold is your diploma from the New School. With gold, you will never be a victim of geography, or of misplaced reliance for the common defense...for YOUR defense.

There is no ONE thing, but the movement has begun. Like the first pebbles down the mountainside that grow to an avalanche, we are already seeing large rocks and falling trees. Many factors have come together, and the time is at hand...who can name the first stone? Perhaps Year 2000 has gelled the person's recognition of need for individual measures of defense. It is not difficult to stretch the thought from basic needs to the very foundation of the 'physics' of human behavior. How sound is YOUR money? This year shall pave the way for what is to follow...

got gold?
Farfel
(03/05/1999; 00:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 2974)
ANALYSIS: SENATOR BRYAN CONFRONTS RUBIN OVER IMF GOLD....
Another brick in the construction of a roaring gold bull occurred when Richard Bryan confronted Treasury Sectretary Rubin over contemplated IMF gold sales.

Richard Bryan is a Democrat and a particularly powerful one at that...he is the senior member of the Senate Banking Committee and if Robbin Rubin's eager dreams for banking reform are to occur, then he best pay attention to Sen. Bryan's wishes. Rubin is trying to push through changes in national banking legislation that would allow banks to set up merchant trading subsidiaries that would fall directly under Treasury control. It is apparent that Bryan is telling Rubin in no uncertain terms: "START STIMULATING THE GOLD PRICE REAL FAST OR FORGET ABOUT MY VOTE!"

Even more interesting is this: if Bryan is agitating about the gold price, then he must be getting some major pressure from Nevada gold mining heavyweights such as Newmont, Battle Mountain, etc. Is it really possible the gold mining companies are finally awaking from their lengthy slumber and exerting their political muscle? Are they finally "Mad as Hell and Not About to Take It Anymore?" Sure seems like it!

In view of this latest development, I would not be surprised to see Rubin begin to back away from his inveterate, extreme, anti-gold maneuvres. If Rubin's hopes for increasing the power of the Treasury Dept. over the nations' banks are to be realized, he best let gold escape the yoke of market manipulations that artifically suppress its price.

This news development constitutes the best evidence to date that the political Establishment is ready to allow gold to run higher.

Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2975)
A good sign
I had not seen USAGOLD's 2968, nor ET's following 2969 before being called away, and the subsequent writing of my recent ramble. It would seem we are in fine agreement.

The rocks coming down the mountain grow larger...
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 2976)
Farfel--
Any hour is a good one to meet with gold upon the table. I send my best wishes for the future you seek.
Your words: "This news development constitutes the best evidence to date that the political Establishment is ready to allow gold to run higher."
...just as the beachcomber rolling up his pant-legs is good evidence that he is ready to allow the tide to come in.

Have no fear, my friend, but have gold. It shall be a tide like no other.
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 00:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 2977)
With good cheer we may ask, "Which is it?"
"A tide or an avalanche?"

Shall we say... they will meet in the middle. And all land will know the power of gold.
turbohawg
(03/05/1999; 02:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2978)
N & V
Michael, as always, the latest News & Views was info packed and an enjoyable read ... appreciated the up-to-date graph of the Brazilian (un)real vs gold as it joins the rubble and others in fiat currency hell.

Any idea how any gold stocks that may trade on the Bovespa are doing ?? I wonder if they're tracking physical or are caught up in the flight from paper.

Aragorn, regarding Msg 2973, just want to say 'well said'.

el St.One
(03/05/1999; 02:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 2979)
Commidities school
ET you can enroll me also. I have had a go at commidities over the years. My trading can be summed up in a few words.

" Win a few, loose a bunch"

I go way back, Goodbody & Co. and E F Hutton if anyone remembers these brokers. Just a history side note, they disappeared when the markets went cold back in the 60's and 70's.

As for the Hunt Brothers market corner on silver 1979-1980 they had most of it, when the good ole boys changed the rules. The good ole boys were all short ( probably the same ones that are short Gold today) The g o b were really feeling the pain, so they had the rules changed in the middle of the game. They had the margain on Silver contracts increased from just a few % (10 or 20) to well over 50% maybe even 100%. The Hunts could not meet their margin calls so the whole thing came apart. I wish my memory was better, I got out real early, so I do not remember all the details.

Anyway ET save me a front row seat. el
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 04:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 2980)
Hear ye! Hear ye! Now appearing at The GILDED OPINION...
In an interview with Stockhouse.com, "Timer of the Year" Don Wolanchuk announces the imminent Gold Bull.

Your review is requested--as with all additions to The GILDED OPINION--for further discussion at the Round Table. Follow the USAGOLD HomePage links, or use this GILDED OPINION link if you prefer...
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
SteveH
(03/05/1999; 05:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 2981)
What is $289.40?
April gold futures in overnight trading.

Some saying silver may still test 4.80.
SteveH
(03/05/1999; 05:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2982)
Misrepresentation
Please check out the pictures. Correct me if I am wrong but this is bullion only AND selling for almost double bullion. Perhaps a wee-bit of false advertising. For sure not a dollar:

1984 (1) Oz. U. S. Silver Eagle-Dollar Unc
Item #71587301
USAGOLD
(03/05/1999; 08:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 2983)
Today's Gold Market Report: Four Good Reasons for Gold to Make a Move
MARKET UPDATE (3/5/99): Several factors lined up in gold's favor over the past twenty four hours but the positive developments failed to move the yellow metal higher in early New York trading.

First, Comex gold warehouse stocks dropped 69,150 ounces yesterday making a total of nearly 200,000 ounces delivered in the past week. Some analysts associate the deliveries to
last week's inverted market wherein spot gold was selling at a premium to any future month -- a sign that investors want delivery on their futures' contracts. Though we have no way of knowing who is taking delivery and why, we believe that the big drawdowns are associated with the huge public demand for gold worldwide but particularly in the United States where a late demand surge in 1998 related to Y2K (+18%) made the U.S. one of the world's fastest growing gold markets.

Second, Bridge News reported late yesterday that the gold market action yesterday when gold finished up $1.20 was essentially being driven by one company that purchased 1000
contracts about mid-session. If you recall, when the gold rally was killed by short sellers about two weeks ago, the reports were that some short seller had sold 1000 contracts as the price pushed toward the $290 mark. Now it appears that same player is covering those shorts. If it is, it covering in a narrow, or perhaps even non-existent range, a less than subtle warning to all short players that the tide in the gold market could be shifting. So much so that Merrill "We're Bearish on Gold" Lynch changed their rating of gold from "negative" to "neutral." If the old saw that one should be measured by his or her enemies not friends, I've got to say I almost liked Merrill Lynch better when they were sitting on the other side of the fence lobbing hand grenades at us. Whatever happened to good old Ted Arnold anyway?

Third, according to an AP news report (Thanks Farfel) last night, the good Secretary of Treasuy, Robert Rubin, received a somewhat unpleasant yesterday from one Senator Richard Bryan of Nevada who, it appears, is not all that happy with all the noise coming out of the Treasury Department about potential International Monetary Fund gold sales. If you recall, it the vice president of the United States, Al Gore, who pitched the Davos conference of finance ministers recently on all the good reasons why the IMF should sell some of its gold. The finance ministers nodded their heads, expressed their appreciation for such interesting ideas, and then promptly tabled the discussion for another time. Well, Mr. Bryan happens to represent a gold mining state where some fairly powerful mining interests have operations and he did not take kindly to the administration's position. What's more he happens to be the ranking Democrat on the all-important Senate Banking Committee where Rubin must take his schemes for liberalizing the banking industry if we wants to make them law.

"We've had hundreds and hundreds of miners laid off,'' Bryan said in a telephone interview with Associated Press from Washington. "It's had a real impact on Nevada families, on
sales tax revenues. Entire communities in the mining areas of the state have been hurt...To put additional downward pressure on the price of gold by selling from the International Monetary Fund's reserves could cause additional mine closings and major layoffs in the industry... "He Treasury Secretary Rubin) promised to take a look at it."

Lastly, the Swiss legislature moved yesterday to delay any gold sales to 2001 or 2002 giving market players the feeling that the Swiss may not be as eager to sell those reserves as previously publicized.

So that's it for today. We are surprised that gold hasn't moved up and out of the range this morning. Perhaps that big buyer has either fully covered or will show up later in the session.

More later if warranted. Have a good weekend, my fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the newsletter.
ET
(03/05/1999; 09:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 2984)
JA and el

Thanks for the replies. I have a very conservative strategy and is the farthest thing from most people's idea of commodity trading. It works for me. I learned this in 1989 at a high school reunion from a fellow that founded Rand Financial in Chicago.

Read Murphy's 'Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets' so you have a good background in chart interpretation. Only trade the intermediate trend, never the short trend. This means you are only trading any given market maybe half the time at most. I generally trade the grains and I learned on corn because of it's low volatility. Don't go beyond corn until you can consistently make money at it. Never risk anymore than 10% of your total capital on any market. Capital preservation is the name of the game. Watch for a breakout either way from a period of consolidation and have a buy or sell order in for two contracts only. If the market moves your way buy or sell two more contracts everytime you have have made twice the margin of the first two and so on. ALWAYS keep trailing stops just below (if long) or above (if short) the previous short term low (if long) or high (if short). You want to be stopped out if the intermediate term trend starts to run out of gas. Then you wait for another opportunity. It's pretty simple but it takes patience and discipline. I've found that I catch the bulk of the move (the middle between 15% to 85% of the total move). Like I said, it's pretty conservative and I'm actually only in the market maybe half the time.

I'm not trading at all right now because I'm worried about the ability of the clearinghouses to cover if the overall financial system starts to come apart. If gold makes a move above say $350 I intend to wire my money out of my account. I've already removed most of it.

ET
beesting
(03/05/1999; 10:20:42 MDT - Msg ID: 2985)
Follow up on "Know Your Customer" proposal
Recieved by E-Mail last night! "Know Your Customer" dealt serious blow as house Banking Committee approves version of Paul-Campbell Amendment 8.
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press99/pro30499.kyc.htm

Mr.Aragorn III may I have permission to copy and repost msg.2973 Great Post!!!

Hope this posts O.K. We call the computer the BUBBLE MACHINE at my house because at times it foams at the mouth along with me................beesting
Aragorn III
(03/05/1999; 10:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 2986)
Beesting...for reprinting
I am honored that you would like to share my words with a larger audience. You are kind to ask! My goal is to assist where possible, so permission is granted with one request. Please include the "http://" link that appears in the forum address box to assist anyone so inclined for additional comments or questions. Is that too much? I hope you find these 'terms' to your liking. It seems the fair thing to provide this measure of recognition due to our 'Round Table' host. Perhaps we shall discover more knights!

I saw that you had computer difficulties yesterday. I shared your problem updating this forum for the past week. The solution I discovered last evening was to download a modern Internet Browser. My older version was failing to recognize new pages...as it appears was yours. My problem has been now solved. I hope this works for you.
USAGOLD
(03/05/1999; 12:22:04 MDT - Msg ID: 2987)
This Weekend's Contest: Rules and Suject Matter.
It's day two of the posting contest and I can see that all the meisters are biding their time and playing it close to the vest.

Just to reiterate the gist of this contest:

Those of us who have been in the industry for more years than we care to admit have always thought that the next bull market in gold would have a monetary disaster at its root. And to say the least, there is plenty of wood around to keep that fire burning. Nevertheless, it is not a dollar disaster that has fueled the big-runup in gold demand, but the computer bug. The question at the center of this contest is are you preparing for Y2K and why? If you are not preparing why? If you are preparing, how are you are preparing? Is gold playing a role and to what degree? Bonus points will be awarded to those who can weave the potential importance of some unforeseen event resulting from Y2K that will impact the world economy.

You can speak whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends and......

Let the contest begin!
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 13:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 2988)
News you might use
HEADLINE: Central banks maybe overestimated 1990s inflation--March 5 (Reuters)

As you read this, you can almost see the bubble growing and hear the pressmen prepare for maximum output.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/xl.html

INTERVIEW-Fed's Kelley warns economy may overheat--March 5 (Reuters)

The Fed is not eager to allow conditions that foster "boom and bust." Only boom...?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/wg.html

HEADLINE: Post-jobs data US bond market rally seen temporary--March 5 (Reuters)

Bond prices are expected to resume their slide
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/zf.html

HEADLINE: Alert: International Y2K picture grim--March 05 (United Press International)

Short and to the point...Headline says it all.
http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnT9K0bebCZK5mtu&FQ=v%25upi&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25upi%0A
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 13:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 2989)
Closing N.Y. Metals -- (FWN)
Gold Sandwiched by Dlr., Spread Unwinding

New York-March 5-FWN--Gold futures settled unchanged
here today, in a market apparently being helped by the
unwinding of long-silver/short-gold positions, but also held
in check by recent strength in the U.S. dollar, sources
said.
Gold continues to retreat as lease rates return to more
"normal" levels and a slow liquidation continues as prices
fall through support levels.
April gold settled at $289.50, where it left off on
Thursday.
While dollar/yen is down 0.67 yen today at Y122.80, it
is nevertheless up from a low of Y118.82 on Monday.
Strength in dollar/yen is not the reason for the
breakdown in silver, it nevertheless has at least been a
"restraint" on the gold, said Dave Meger, metals analyst
with Alaron Trading. Yet at the same time, he continued, he
has been somewhat "impressed" with the action in gold, since
there have been no downward breaks that might normally be
expected with a stronger dollar/yen.
"The other big effect on the market recently--
especially the last two or three days--is you've seen a lot
of silver/gold spread liquidation," he continued.
"A lot of traders and funds were long silver and short
gold....And now you're seeing a lot of silver selling and
gold buying, unwinding those spreads.
"Because of that effect supporting the gold, and the
dollar strength being the resistance, you've seen relatively
tight gold trade over the last handful of days," he
said.
Sources in the last couple of days have also pointed to
comments from a Swiss Finance Ministry spokesman suggesting
that a referendum on a revaluation and gold sales may be
combined with another vote next year. This has been viewed
as at least slightly supportive, since it would mean any
potential gold sales if the referendum even passes, which
would be pushed out to 2000 or beyond.
Significant resistance in cash gold is seen around
$290, which would be $291 to $291.50 for the April futures,
said Meger.
"If we see some closes above that price level, with the
amount of funds we have short in this market right now, you
could definitely see some short covering. However, I believe
it's going to take some dollar weakness and some other
factors to get gold up above that price level," he said.
Further resistance for April gold is seen around $292
to $293, then $298. Support was put at $287.10, $285 and
$282.
Meger commented that today's February U.S. employment
report did not appear to have any significant impact on the
metals, even though it sent the U.S. equity market
skyrocketing. Inflationary fears were calmed by a smaller-
than-expected 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings,
while non-farm payrolls rose a slightly greater-than-expected 275,000.
Ahead of time, Meger said, he suspected the metals
would be in a "no-win" situation with the jobs report. He
said he had expected a strong employment report to cause the
dollar to soar, which typically hurts the metals, while a
weak report would have physical demand forecasts.
"I think it was a non-event for the metals," he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 2990)
COMEX Gold Depository musical chairs
Yesterday's removal of 69,118 troy ounces (Registered) from Scotia Mocatta was followed today by the arrival of 69,118 troy ounces (Registered) at Republic National. Did somebody want their gold housed closer to home?

Pooling Thursday and Friday, there was a net movement of 2,000 ounces out of COMEX, with additional shuffling of Registered gold at R.N. for Eligible gold at S.M.

Totals are by permission of FWN
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 2991)
NY Precious Metals Review: Bridge News--March 5
"There's no liquidity left in the [silver] market," said a trader. "It's irreparably
hurt. The majority who traded silver this year have gotten hurt." He said most
market players are switching their focus from silver to gold.
Meanwhile, Apr gold settled unchanged at $289.5 per ounce and is very well
supported despite the rally in the stock and bond markets, traders said. They
said there is good buying in gold offset by producer selling.
Traders said they are very bullish on gold and expect Apr to break out to
the upside to $292 in the near-term then $296.
"It's hard to think gold will go up when they're obliterating silver, but I
think it'll happen," one trader said.
-----By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/05/1999; 15:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 2992)
Does anyone believe this portends well for the dollar's future?
HEADLINE: US inflation no longer a factor--March 5 (Reuters)

Fed Bank of Richmond President Broaddus says inflation no longer factors into economic decisions!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/85.html
Aristotle
(03/05/1999; 15:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 2993)
ET--Maybe you do, maybe you don't
I know you've said you deal primarily with grains, but since you are a significant step closer to the futures action than I am, you seem the likely candidate to field this question. Do you have any idea what percentage of the gold futures contracts result in actual delivery of goods? In other words, how many contracts involve a true price-hedger as opposed to a pure gambler/speculator?
Thanks for your previous response. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/05/1999; 16:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 2994)
Good to be back!
I see from USAGOLD's post there is some metal to be had. Where else can you earn gold directly? Ahhhhhh...life is good.

In regard to the contest topic, I have been kept busy...checking my gold for embedded chips. My findings:

Y2K----very very bad;
GOLD---very very good.

I'm sure there will be an exciting array of insightful posts over the weekend, but none as eloquent in its simplicity. My fellow Knights, what say you throw in the towel right now and ship the treasure straight-away? :-)
---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/05/1999; 18:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 2995)
To be Read by Impatient Gold Bulls Only
If you're waiting for a nasty drop in the stock market to prove you are right about gold, don't; not because it won't happen necessarily, but because IT DOESN'T NEED TO HAPPEN.

Remember, we are in a period of very rapid money creation throughout the world. Brazil has borrowed itself, and devalued itself, far beyond any ability to ever repay its massive debts. Prices there have ballooned above 40%(annual rate) in recent weeks. Japan, which is itself buried in debt, has finally begun to do the inevitable. The BOJ is buying government bonds in amounts that jolted their stock market into a 700 point gain today. Until things turn around, you can bet there will be lots more liquidity where that came from. Finally, money supply in the United States (bent on preserving exchange relationships with weak foreign currencies) exceeds all recent historical rates of growth.

To put it simply, we have to treat the nearly worldwide recession as if it were our own, or, the fear is, it soon will be.

But, the fact of the matter is, the U.S. is not in a recession, and, as such, rapidly expanding our money will inevitably result in inflation. The fact that it might also keep the stock market afloat is almost a given and has no bearing on whether gold is about to rise.

What DOES have a bearing on the future of gold however, is the bond market. Virtually all central banks keep U.S. dollars as a reserve currency, something to stand behind their own currencies and provide confidence. Most of these dollars do not sit idly. They earn interest by being held in the form of U.S. treasuries.
When these bonds decline in value, as they have recently, the various banks are left holding the bag. This is why there is so much talk about converting some of those reserves to gold. The whole world is attempting to reinflate, and, if they succeed, bonds are far less likely to retain their value than is gold.

Bond bulls argue that we are in a period of disinflation. They talked confidently about what a great buy bonds were this week. February was the worst single month for bonds in I don't know how many years, and yet today bulls were pointing to a one day bounce as proof they are right. Baloney. Bonds were badly oversold, and that's all. Anybody who thinks that the falling bond market, in the face of so much money creation, is just a fluke, is dreaming.

Nobody with a stake in bonds wants gold to go up. Such a move would signal reinflation and would cause central banks and many others to sell their bonds. The concomitant rise in long rates would vastly complicate the world's effort to achieve economic recovery. AND, because such selling of bonds might well result in replacing reserves with gold, the whole process might well feed on itself; bonds go down, buy some gold; gold goes up, sell some bonds, etc.

But what if the money growth, great as it is, is inadequate to compensate for all the money that is being destroyed - like when Brazil defaults, for example?

Well, if I were you, I would expect Brazil to default alright. But if you think you have seen money creation now, you ain't seen nothing yet. Let Brazil default. Let the hedgefunds slip toward the edge of oblivion, for that matter. Greenspan will be there, just like he was in 1987 and just like he was with LTCM. You can depend on it.

Thank you for reading all of this. Chances are you already understood everything I just said. Perhaps, you even disagree with it. But, I thought, on a day like to today, it might pay to review why we are here. I hope I didn't waste your time.


ET
(03/05/1999; 18:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 2996)
Aristotle

I'm not sure I can tell you much about actual settlements. I don't really pay any attention to it. When it comes to trading I'm strictly a technical trader. I don't really pay any attention to the news regarding anything I'm trading other than I'm aware of the world in general. I figure all news is discounted and besides that, it's a lot easier. I do know that some markets like orange juice are almost all commercials. It wouldn't surprise me if the gold market was comprised mostly of commercials in terms of their hedging requirements but I don't really know.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/05/1999; 19:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2997)
Aragorn III and The Stranger's POSTS
Thank you both for your thoughts! Please keep the explainations coming as they clear the head of the vast amount of disinformation being spread by the Sheeple "shearers".
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/05/1999; 19:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 2998)
Aristotle's "winning" post
The Hobbits are requesting the post to be ----REJECTED---!!! (Because you did not use enough words.) <;-)
Goldfly
(03/05/1999; 20:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 2999)
Hey Stranger!
No, not a waste of time at all. A good clearly reasoned statement of what is understood only intuitively by others (like me.)

I've never liked the idea of a stock market crash, because that would be deflationary (uh, dollar and price?) But I do think it has to happen- The current valuations (on a number of stocks) are STUPID.

But I also think that when the gleam is off stocks, there is still going to be a huge pile of greenbacks looking for a home. They are going to want Yellow real estate.

Oh give me a hoooome, where I don't take a loan,
And there's no fear of Y-i-2K......
I'll trade all my stocks, for a few yellow rocks,
While the bond markets sagging all day.....

GF
Peter Asher
(03/05/1999; 21:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3000)
Goldfly
I learned that tune as the first song I ever sung at a very small age, with it being played,would you believe, on my "wind up" victrola. So I just sang it for Robin and of course sounded awful; but we loved the lyrics.
Peter Asher
(03/05/1999; 21:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3001)
Stranger
Your post couldn't have come at a better time. I had just finished digesting today's bi-monthly issue of "The Wall Street Underground" and was in a total funk. Nick Guarino is basically visualizing Asia and Brazil being the first part of a global domino sequence that will wipe out EVERYTHING. I was lying prostrate, trying to assimilate that forecast back to back with today's market mania and dragged myself to the keyboard, hoping for some form of mental salvation. It must have been Finally Friday Fatigue, because I had forgotten all about-- Greenspan!

Well, your analysis seems to be spot on, and I think I can now come up with more than 30 words on what, for me was the biggest surprise of the year: today's stock market.----Back in awhile---.

Peter A.
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 00:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3002)
Gandalf, Gandalf, Gandalf...
Surely keeping it to 10 words or less should be heralded as a major acheivement, particularly since I have been known to run-on a bit at times! My squire is already preparing a worthy space for the small treasure...
TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 00:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3003)
News you need. Especially the second one. And the first one.
Follow the links!

HEADLINE: Y2K shutdown of Gazprom could leave Russia in dark--March 5 (Reuters)

CIA analyst testified before Congress that certain failures were highly likely. This is REAL, folks.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/bdu.html

HEADLINE: China says deficit needed to keep economy churning--March 6 (Reuters)

***A MUST READ***Chinese Finance Minister said a "massive rise" (57%!) in the budget deficit would be required to keep economy and social problems in line.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/beg.html
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 00:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3004)
SIH9 **5.542** on Fri. close. This may be the week of change.
I imagine we all know the saying, "Be careful what you ask for; you may get it." Well when Michael asked what the biggest surprise of the year was, I thought, "None of this year's financial scene surprises me." Then this morning when I tuned in to the first hour of trade, I thought I was misreading the numbers. Oh sure, I told Steve last night that it was now or never, if "They" were going to run it again, and I had seen a late bulletin on Greenspan's alleged comments, but I was envisioning another run into the 9400 zone .

I've been trying to discern if the current chart patterns were starting to show distribution, and just yesterday I had a domestic discussion on the difficulty of distinguishing that from a pattern of consolidation. Well today's Dow chart looks like a raging bull. BUT, do this. Pull up the Quote. com live chart and set it on weekly (with candles for clarity). Now, it will start with the Dow, so keep your eye on the right-hand segment and make a little click-frame movie, going in the order of quantity. OEX, SPX, NYAX and COMPX . The broader the base of stocks in each average, the more the chart shows a rounded-over or even a pointed peak. Furthermore, the "record" high of today is only a DOW phenomenon.

Back about 1960, I read a stock market book by a fellow named Nye. He claimed that when the insiders wanted to, say, get out, they would run the Dow up, with the help of the floor specialists, while distributing all they could of everything else into a "rising" market. Now, at that time, a ten- million share day was headline news, so I don't have a clue if this is currently relevant. But something similar could be at work.

Other than that, there is the fact that at the moment the economy is humming along, and the invest-in-what-goes-up craze has plenty of money still feeding it. Well, "The bigger they come, the harder they fall." However, the inside money will park safely before the rush hour. So gold and silver should be making their move while things still look positive.

In the final battle, it will be Alan Greenspan versus a spooked public. Time WILL tell!
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 00:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3005)
Am I preparing? You'd better believe I'm preparing.

What really got my attention regarding Y2Kwas a report the CIA put out about a year ago, saying how there was no way that third world countries were going to pull through with their computer systems. Their infrastructure will simply cease to work. Entire countries (I'm extrapolating here) could simply vanish. The thought struck me at the time: If the same thing happens in the US, we'll have chaos. Even if it's only half as bad. Or a quarter�..

I work senior support at a medium-sized, manufacturing company. I work with computers all day long. Yesterday I finished my MCSE- Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer. (At least they didn't make me sign a paper saying I wouldn't represent myself as an "Engineer" like Novell did for my CNE.) I do know something about computers (Honest.) I have seen the chaos something relatively minor such as the mail server going down can cause. I don't have to be convinced of how persnickety and cantankerous computers are. If a computer isn't getting what it needs- down to the last and tiniest detail- it will simply shut down or spew garbage. It can take hours or days to figure out some idiocy like a misplaced capital letter or the like.

So anyway, I know computers too well. I don't trust them. I can accept the idea that a programing error could throw civilization off-course

The Preparations

Gold - According to my means
Silver - For smaller barter
Cash- Cash will be king, at least for a while, after the bank run.
Stocks- You've got to be kidding. The stock market scares me silly.

Food- Cases of canned beans, tuna, stews (Castlebury's is great! They blow Armour and Hormel out of the water. Cheaper too!) Speaking of water- I'm working on a static supply.

We've ordered about 1000 pounds of wheat/beans/rice/etc with a local co-op. In buckets, with the oxygen removers. Yeast, cinnamon, honey, cocoa powder, olive oil, peanut butter. Pounds and gallons. Some pasta and the usual suspects. A couple of grinders. One of them electric. (My wife had to have an electric grinder for the time being. Much easier.) Speaking of baking bread. Need some kind of heat source, right? Working on it.

We're looking at some dried foods, but aren't too sure.

Paper: A year's supply of diapers. (I have a three-month old) I'm guessing about a 6-9 month (and growing) supply of TP. Paper plates (no washing). Feminine stuff.

Guns- Well, that could be the subject of a whole 'nother post. Basically: not yet.

Car parts- None. I figure it's bad, with distribution breakdown. Cars won't get much use anyway. No gas.

Cleaning products: Somewhat.

No, no generator. At least not yet. I can't decide if being the only house on the street with power would be too showy. And then there is storing the fuel. I don't know��..

Kids- 4 of them. Oldest is 7. I'm trying to make known that things may not be like they are now without spooking them. I don't think they get it. I hope they never do.

Now, you may ask why would I monkey around with my MCSE if I think this is TEOTWAWKI???

Well, I'm actually hoping to use it as leverage to get out of our present situation. We are in a population center of about 2 million. The idea of sewage and garbage piling up in our street is not pleasant. The thought of marauders battling neighborhood militias is not sweet either. This second certification should make me that much more marketable; that businesses will be willing to part with quite a chunk of change to secure my services. (Pssst- you want to meet my resume?) I'd be looking be able to live a good ways outside a population center while still being able to find work. We'll see how it goes.

Besides that, I could be wrong. I hope I am. I hope I can get up Saturday morning and get some cold milk out of the fridge to put on my kids cereal and lead a normal life. If I am wrong then I won't have neglected providing for THAT future either. We'll eat our supplies. The grain will last for a couple of years. My wife loves to bake bread. She is actually looking forward to practicing with the wheat order we're getting in. If we do manage to move, we've always wanted a more rural setting anyhow. We'd be (at least generally) where we want to be.

Enough! To bed. Perchance to sleep�..

GF
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 00:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3006)
Minor Error Below
1st paragraph, 3rd sentance should read "two nights ago", not "last night"
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 01:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3007)
As simple as it sounds, most people don't "get" it.
Understanding the elemental aspects of money, that is. You, Stranger, obviously get it. (For that matter, most of those that find their way to gold pages such as this are light-years ahead of their neighbors.)

As twisted as it may seem, the performance of the stock market need have nothing to do with the world of gold--exactly as you have stated. The yen has weakened, and the Nikkei shot up 5% in yesterday's trading. Same thing recently in Brazil. On one day that the currency weakened dramatically, the Bovespa went skyward. TownCrier posted news the other day (Thursday?) wherein Ecuador's currency tanked in ONE DAY by 27% and naturally the market responded by a similar shot in the opposite direction. This should be expected, as stocks are real things (a percent ownership in the assets and operation of a real corporation), and we all know that the prices of real things go UP as the purchasing power of a currency goes down. There's a flaw, however, for the stock mavens that would like to envision this situation as the best of all worlds--getting general appreciation of stock during "good times", and an inflation hedge during currency decay. (Thanks Aragorn...borrowed that one from you!) The flaw is that while the *real* element of the corporation will justify the price increase during a collapse of the currency value, it must be remembered that these companies depend upon 'paying customers' for their profitability. When the currency tanks, these people's savings are wiped out, and they are not going to be very good customers again for a long time! It is only a short matter of time before the market traders see the resulting drain on corporate profits and sell the stock back down in price, making it worth less, and in devalued currency to boot!

If you hold bonds, you'll get exactly what you deserve. Don't play that game. Bonds are basically currency that is dressed up for the Prom.

The solution to so many problems is so simple! People must recognize first what money is, how it is created, and how it is similarly destroyed upon debt repayment. They must also appreciate how vulnerable its value is to manipulation or speculative attack. Sure, use it to pay bills. Sure, invest some of it in a solid company with an attractive valuation and risk/reward ratio. But by all means, don't ask too much of your currency. Always, always, always make the exchange for gold. This is the reality we are moving toward. You should convince yourself of the merits of this program. As more and more people participate, the exchange rate will require ever more dollars for a quantity of gold, and the 'value' of each gram of your gold savings will rise over time...like interest on a bond, but without the volatility and equivalent risks faced by the currency itself. (The current exchange rate is a gift that I marvel at monthly.)

So if the dreaded day arrives that your national currency is devalued in the eyes of the world, your stock portfolio will give you a measure of protection, but will always carry the inherent risk associated with the overall success of the business end of the operation. Holding bonds will be no better than holding cash. Much worse, in fact. Holding gold, however, will allow the day to pass as every other before it. It would be as though you were not a resident of the country that was so afflicted. The bulk of your wealth--your ability to afford your daily needs--survives intact.

When people hold gold bullion (not jewelry) in hand for the first time, a "light comes on" for more of them than not. They become like dry kindling touched by a glowing ember. A smoldering change of thought and perspective followed by a blaze of understanding. This happens faster in some than others, but it happens. May be seconds...may be months. It happens! Consider this...Y2K will be reponsible for putting more gold into more people's hands than the MODERN era has ever known before. There will be a change, and change is good! Thanks to Aragorn III and The Stranger for inspiration for this evening's presentation to the Round Table.

Life is good! If you disagree, you are doing it wrong. Live it on your own terms. Choose a gold standard, and enjoy the reward vested upon all those who started early. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 02:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3008)
Addendum to msg#3004
While as a technical observer, the 1st hour jump in the Dow may have been, to me, the biggest surprise this year, the fundamental behind it was probably the biggest surprise to analysts and economists in general. Specifically the .1% rise in payrolls rather than the expected .3%. Secondarily there was the slight unexpected rise in unemployment Which brings to mind the fact that the unemployment numbers are the least meaningfull of statistics, as they reflect CLAIMS, not numbers of people out of work.

SteveH
(03/06/1999; 07:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3009)
Rhody
Date: Sat Mar 06 1999 09:12
rhody (KKKK@ Mooney: you got mail. OK, then my final figure) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
should be about $US75 to $100 per oz. Fact is, it just does
not pay to mine silver for $5 per oz. In fact, there would
be only one or two straight silver mines operating at these
prices. Eighty percent of silver comes from by product base
metal mines. Because of the economic contraction, these mines
are scaling back. The question now arises, which falls faster,
mine production or silver consumption? So far consumption
is falling a little faster than mine production. But this
still gives us a supply shortfall approaching 200 million oz,
and total world stockpiles total only 360 million oz. So
1.8 years from now, world stock piles will be zero, and we will
still have an annual demand shortfall, and we will still have
a short overhang of 700 million oz and a lease overhang of
well over 1.6 billion oz. Even if you don't believe in the
lease overhang thing, the short overhang is equal to more than
one full year of mine production. Any way you look at it
1.8 years from now, the world demand will be 1.5 to 2.5 billion
oz and the total world supplies will be 600 million oz spread
over the production year plus what ever can be coaxed out of
hoarded supplies, some of which where purchased at $50 per oz
nearly 20 years ago.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 07:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3010)
Rhody (again!). Something we can sink our teeth into.
Gotta love it. Answers when and how much and why. All the rest of us gold-and-silver-will-go-uppers can learn a good lesson on how to do it. I did.


Date: Sat Mar 06 1999 08:38
rhody (A PRECIOUS METAL NIGHTMARE: If you bought silver in) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1980-81 at the abolute peak of silver prices ( $80 per oz ) and
held that silver to present, here's what you are looking at.
The present dollar is worth less than 50c in buying power, and
silver is approaching $5. So you would have a paper loss
of $75 per oz and an inflation loss double that to add insult
to injury. The real losses would be $150 per oz. plus lost
interest income. This is the stuff of nightmares, and yet
I know of posters on this forum who as of last year, still held
silver purchased back in the early 1980's!
Why am I bringing this horrible topic up right now? Well,
it's because we are now in exactly the opposite situation.
Silver is at 600 year lows. We can use nearly worthless 50
cent dollars to buy silver at 5 bucks at a time when silver
stockpiles will reach zero in less than two years. This means
that silver will likely return to its old valuation of $80 per
oz and that will be adjusted for inflation. This means silver
could reach US$175 per oz sometime in the next two years.
Feel better?
ET
(03/06/1999; 08:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3011)
Possible political aspects of y2k

This being a y2k weekend here, I thought I would post this analysis of the Senate's report. This was posted to csy2k this week following the Senate report and some revelations from a public planner in Michigan as reported at World Net Daily (www.worldnetdaily.com). I hope this formats correctly.

ET

Subject: Executive Order 12656 - post-Y2K dictatorship
Date: Fri, 5 Mar 1999 20:21:12 +0100
From: Anonymous
Organization: mail2news@replay.com
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000




Some of you who have seen the latest Worldnetdaily stories about Y2K (e.g.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_bresnahan/19990304_xex_what_fema_ha.sht
ml) are aware that they have found at least one source claiming that FEMA
is going to assume dictatorial powers in the wake of Y2K. The Bennett-Dodd
report (http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/reportcontents.html) on pages 98 and 99
strenuously denies any such marital law scenario:

"Our national security is dependent on our ability to assure continuity of
government, at every level, in any national security emergency situation
that might confront the nation. Executive Order 12656, the Assignment of
Emergency Preparedness Responsibilities, broadly outlines the role of
FEMA's director and the National Security Council in response to national
security emergencies. Executive Order 12656 defines a national security
emergency as 'any occurrence, including natural disaster, military attack,
technological emergency or other emergency, that seriously degrades or
seriously threatens the national security of the United States.' [ . . . .
]

"Numerous misguided rumors and outright falsehoods are being circulated in
some quarters on the Internet about the possibility of 'martial law' will
somehow be declared by the federal government in response to Y2K
emergencies. These rumors and falsehoods will serve only to incite
unwarranted public panic and to needlessly heighten public fear and
misunderstanding about the Y2K problem. Such irresponsible and reckless
speculation has no basis in fact, and it disregards the long history of our
nation's commitment to democracy and our own constitutional system of
government, which is grounded in the rule of law."

The curious thing about this strongly worded denial is that it is
self-refuting - note the reference to Executive Order 12656. Obviously,
the distinguished Senators are hoping that no one actually bothers to read
the Executive Order, for anyone who does will quickly realize that martial
law is precisely what E.O. 12656 contemplates. If you want to read the
blueprint for tyranny for yourself, it can be found at
http://www.ncs.gov/ncs/html/EO12656.htm (or, if you want to be slightly
more anonymous, go through http://www.anonymizer.com/open.html or
http://proxy.magusnet.com:8084/ first).

Basically, E.O. 12656 is a Reagan-era outline for federal control of the
economy (and law enforcement) under the direction of the National Security
Council, with particular sectors of the economy being parcelled out among
various departments and agencies and coordination between departments and
agencies being handled by FEMA. While it doesn't explicitly call for the
abolition of private property and self-ownership, E.O. 12656 presumes that
the federal government has the right to plan production, allocate resources
and labor, and fix wages and other prices. In other words, a private owner
would be little more than a state functionary, subject to a kind of
socialist central planning with a facade of meaningless private titles to
property to save the appearance of legality and legitimacy.

It is truly extraordinary that the authors of the Bennett-Dodd Report would
try to pass this off as something that is not an instance of martial law.
The essence of martial law is the suspension of individual rights in order
to preserve the state's existence; if your right to have exclusive control
over yourself and your property is negated under a "national security
emergency," then we are indeed talking about the imposition of martial law.
And who here has the slightest doubt that the military and the federalized
police forces will be used to impose FEMA's plans on those who refuse to
conform?

As for the constitutionality of this scheme, I think that most Americans
aren't going to care whether the feds can supply a legalistic
rationalization for tyranny or not - who cares about a sham-democracy or a
sham-constitution or a sham-rule of law when you are being asked to live
under a socialist police state? With politicians brazenly threatening to
implement E.O. 12656, the public should be afraid - very, very afraid.
turbohawg
(03/06/1999; 10:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3012)
catching up on recent posts
Lots of good ones. Stranger, excellent ... you make a great case for gold. I was pulling for you last week in your effort to run into that guy some call the president.

Peter, any chance you could glean a little from Gaurino's report for us ?? If so, perhaps some smelling salts close at hand would be in order.

ET, if the contention made in your Y2K post plays out, look for me in Galt's Gulch. If memory serves correctly, wasn't that somewhere in the area of USAGOLD's home base ?? Hmmm...

The latest Market Commentary from David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund: http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm.htm

ET
(03/06/1999; 11:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3013)
Preparation for y2k

As I've posted previously concerning this subject I'll reiterate a few thoughts. I've been following this issue for several years and have already made preparations for a worst case scenario. My problem has always been, what is a worst case scenario and how might it manifest itself? The issue breaks down into several aspects, all of which need to be considered when attempting preparations for an event of no historical precedence. Three areas concern me; physical infrastructure, economic and financial infrastructure, and political infrastructure.

Of these three I consider the economic aspects as being the most likely to affect, to the greatest magnitude, the average Joe. Since readers here understand the economic state of the world today I won't go into why a collapse of the monetary system would be so crushing. If all physical infrastructure were to remain in place, the current state of remediation around the world would result in huge losses in business efficiencies thus putting the entire loan structure which supports the monetary system at risk. Thus, a worst case scenario would mean that all paper assets would approach zero value draining the world of it's perceived wealth. Unemployment would be a huge problem as many goods and services would find no buyers. As to how to prepare for such a circumstance I would imagine storing items you would consume if you didn't have a job would be high on the list. Any excess fiat money would be best employed in some kind of hard money. Some thinking about what kind of job one would find in demand following a monetary collapse is also in order and attaining the equipment, capital and skills to have a shot at a new economy.

The second most likely problem in my opinion is the political infrastructure following a monetary collapse. I have no doubt in my mind that our leaders will make every attempt to maintain power and control. The 'continuance of government' will be their highest priority. What this actually will entail will likely be dictated by the severity of physical infrastructure problems and economic problems. As per my post concerning the analysis of the Senate's report, I harbor no illusions as to what our collectivist leaders are capable when their power is threatened. As to how to prepare for some kind of dictatorial fascism or worse I haven't a clue other than to speak out against any such ideas. I'm afraid our populace however would be very quick to plead to government for help engendering just the type of reaction those of us that covet our freedoms fear. The one positive aspect is that those who would wish to enslave others are at a huge numerical disadvantage. If policies of this type are coming than I would expect those that do prepare will be in a position to function outside the influence of any police state to some degree. The government needs popular support to remain in control and if enough are prepared that don't need their help than an economy will emerge outside their control. This is probably the best incentive to prepare.

I place physical infrastructure problems at the bottom of my list because I see much evidence that they will be mitigated for the most part. It is likely we will see problems but I don't foresee a complete loss of infrastructure for any great length of time if at all. I expect the power to work, the telecoms to work, and fuel to be available. Because of a monetary collapse however the prices might be very high for essential items. All this is not to say I haven't prepared for a complete collapse of physical infrastructure nevertheless. It is only prudent. Preparing not for just myself but others that won't is a high priority because of the possible political aspects.

I also wanted to address the issue of cash. I'm not a fan of running to the bank and yanking out all your cash and hoarding it. It is fine to yank it out and convert it to something other than cash but placing it in your mattress is probably a lousy idea for a couple of reasons. First, cash will hold no value if the banks are forced to close for lack of liquid cash. No vendor will accept it if he cannot turn around and use the banking system to purchase more goods. Secondly, the purchasing power of cash will likely deteriorate very quickly if the fed as expected will be producing money at very high rates to avoid a collapse of liquidity. One would be better served to buy hard assets allowing the cash to be returned to the banking system. As much as I believe this however does not confuse me about the reality of the situation. People will likely run to cash causing banks to ration it out. All in all, I don't see it as the best way to protect your assets. Conversion now makes more sense than waiting until everybody decides that might be the way to go.

In summary, I believe an economic collapse is likely the best case scenario. I don't see at this time how it is to be avoided. Not only will people panic but governments will also. Probably the best plan is to try to stay out of the way of both.

From chaos comes opportunity.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/06/1999; 11:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3014)
Thank you Aristotle for #3007
The ONLY way the Sheeple will get it is for the teachers to reiterate in similar methods the theme you have defined in message #3007. Your teachings, together with those of Aragorn III, The Stranger, MK of USAGOLD, Peter A., and the GOLDFLY will, when read be like the placing of the gold in the palm of a nonbeliever, and spark the light of knowledge. Oh, if only WE ALL could start placing the 1/10 oz. pieces in our friends hands as MK is doing. However, this method of reaching those Sheeple with the WORD is my only way, as I encourage friends and contacts to stop by the FORUM roundtable and partake of the GREAT wisdom found herein. Please all, do not hesitate to continue to ask the lurkers to join in the discussion and enhance the wide scope of learning. Communication is the "best" way of learning, as the self educated method is costly and at times HURTS when an error is confirmed. --- As always, COMMENTS are welcome.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 11:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3015)
Y2K shutdown of Gazprom could leave Russia in dark
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990305/bdu.html

CIA warns of possible "severe energy shortages" in Eastern bloc if natural gas pipeline Y2K'Od.

USAGOLD
(03/06/1999; 11:36:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3016)
Gandalf, my wizardrous friend....
You lure me out of my weekend hideaway to say this:

It is by the very presentation of your thoughts, ideas, opinions and analysis in this venue that you accomplish precisely that for which you hope :

The placing of gold in the right hands for the millennium.

To you and all posters (not just here but throughout the internet) we owe a debt of gratitude.

Onward, fellow knights and ladies of the Golden Court..... and shapers of this Table Round. Let us pursue the elusive grail of wisdom as friends and associates...

The contest advances.....
USAGOLD
(03/06/1999; 11:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3017)
Original Call to Contest....Lurkers, First Time Posters Welcome
On the ramparts a lone figure can be seen pacing
His figure cut 'cross the leaden sky
Cape and hair blowing in the wind
one hand gripping his sheathed sword
the sun sets hidden 'hind a bank of clouds
evening draws nigh and the hall is now brightened
within Elsinore's walls...
His gaze moves toward the infinite horizon
His troubled eyes cloak nothing
His careworn voice still firm but concerned:

"To Y2K or not to Y2K that is the question
Whether 'tis nobler in mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of power plant blackouts
And phones that do not ring and water that does not run
Or make preparations against them? To store: to bottle;
What next? And by a cache of gold to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks that assets
are heir to, 'tis a balance devoutly to be wished.

To prepare or not to prepare: Ay there's the rub;
For in preparation we find consolation; or do we?
For it is in the acts of our fellows that this web is spun 'round us and nations fly beyond our grasp.
When we stop to look around us, must give us pause
That gives us calamity anew and not time enough to fend it
For who would bear the whips and scorns of computer breakdown without a proper shield.
There is more to this than meets the crafty eye
some tangles that need untangling....."

This lonely, knightly figure moves off rampart to the warmth of the hall where the knights and ladies have gathered near the table round.

"What say you of preparations? Of computers and assets lost.
Do we make our move now? Or do we wait for Winter solstice?
It is true that we can earn interest on our Treasury, or we can lose it all in the flash of an electrode."

"So how prepare you? Or do you prepare at all?
Bonus points will be awarded for those who find interest
in the unforeseen event, for it seems as time moves forward
It is not the one time event that will haunt us
but the army of events that follow in the New Year's wake.
Will this be the year we face our sea of troubles or
The year when Christ and his saints slept (to steal a comely title)."

-----------------------------------------
So we call a Contest at this Table Round of posting at the FORUM -- posts confined to the topic above. You can speak
whatever is on your mind, but only on-subject posts will be considered for the prize -- a sparkling one tenth ounce Austrian
Philharmonic and three U.S. silver eagles to the runners-up.

There will also be a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic prize for this (and watch out, here comes the curve): Whoever
comes the closest to predicting the price of March silver on the COMEX at the close March 12th. The prediction must be
bracketed in the "Subject" box with *********** or it will not count. That post must also contain thirty words or more on what the biggest surprise in economics and finance has been so far this year. Another silver prize will be given for the best post on that subject.

The contest will run from this moment forward 'til the stroke of midnight in the mountains on March 8th. Of course, posters can enter in both categories but they must be in separate posts. No mixing and matching.

FIRST TIME POSTERS ARE WELCOME. As a matter of fact we will reward first time posters with their choice of one of
two books -- either "The ABCs of Gold Investing" by M. Kosares -- A primer on gold ownership -- or "In the Footsteps of Giants" -- the early internet postings of the prophetic entity, ANOTHER. Just post and e-mail us your request and we will get it out to you.

FIRST TIME REGISTRANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO JOIN IN. We will be monitoring the site for registrations and will get passwords out as quickly as possible.

And so we gather at this table in pursuit of the golden grail of wisdom...Sharpen your wits, my friends
and....... Remember, Hamlet's tragic flaw was to hesitate to his ultimate demise. So knights and ladies, do not yourself
hesitate!

Let the contest begin.

And in closing, the words of the Bard (one of the most famous passages in all of literature from the same play):

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry,
This above all: to thine ownself be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.

A tough guideline to follow in this age of debt, but there's wisdom here nevertheless. Onward, my fellow knights and
goldmeisters. To borrow the phrase of our own missing bard:
"We watch this new gold market together, yes!" And.......We honor him with a seat kept empty at this table round in hope
of his timely return. MK
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 14:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3018)
Just Out


MIAMI, (Reuters) - Corporate America is "in very good shape"
to deal with the millennium bug and there is no need to stockpile
food or head for the hills come Dec. 31, the top U.S. stock
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990306/16/stocks-millennium regulator said Saturday.
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 15:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3019)
Turbohawg
I'm working on a monster Y2K post, then I'll get back to Guardino's latest. No surprises, just extreme cause and effect. He's kind of the Gary North of Wall Street.

Regarding "Galt's Gulch", I've got a plan I'll mention later.
T. Remital
(03/06/1999; 15:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3020)
Y2K
I think being in the mountains in a winter community of only 400 people may turn out to be a
blessing when Y2K arrives. To be prepared we will have enough food stored up to last
6 months and living next to a river will provide plenty of fresh water. The nearest large city
is 50 miles away so it will be possible to make three trips on a tank of gas if necessary
to pick up any additional supplies. If every thing shuts down we will live off the
land by fishing and hunting. There is plenty of wood for fire place and stove so cooking
will not be a problem. Candles and lanterns will be our eyes at night if we have no power. We
will always have a large store of toilet paper and other necessary items to last at least six months plus storage of gas and oil for outboard motors and parts for same. We will have duplicates of bank statements, life insurance policies and all documents that are computer
controlled. Cash on hand will be in small denominations with nothing over a $10 bill plus some
small gold coins (1/10) in a secure place. GOLD is the best preservation of wealth, but can also be used as a bartering vehicle if need be. GOLD is on the top of the list for trading value for value.

DON'TS: Don't flash coins or brag about holding them---do stay away from crowds---beware of fires as there will be many candle and smal stoves being usesd by your neighbors. Do keep ample medical supplies on hand for emergencies. Have a battery operated radio on hand to keep in touch with the outside world. Let us hope that Y2K is not a problem but WE HAVE BEEN WARNED. THE TIME TO START IS NOW------





TownCrier
(03/06/1999; 16:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3021)
Sometimes, it's all about reducing the RISK
I invite you to revisite Financial Times...you've been there before if you followed Thurday's news. Have your password ready, good Knights.

LTCM: Hearings likely to focus on reform--FT 3/3
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q805d2.htm

HEDGE FUNDS: US Congress to limit risks--FT 3/2
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q13aa66.htm
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 16:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3022)
Maybe frivolous, but definately fun!
In addition the the good discussions we have at the Round Table, one of the things I enjoy are the great names that we have in the room. Even when they aren't currently speaking, there is a comfort in knowing that the room is filled with a variety of good souls, ready to step out of the shadows if the need arises.

I would like to request a roll call, to last for the duration of this weekend. Those of you who have already spoken today are fine...unless you have some clever re-introduction you are wanting to make of yourself. I would simply ask that you noble, but silent knights in the wings simply step into the firelight and say Hello. Nothing further is required of you. And should you choose to make a longer, follow-up address to the group, all the better. But for now, I'd just love the see the variety of names walking about the castle!

Would any of the visible knights care to support my request? ---Aristotle
NORTH OF 49
(03/06/1999; 16:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3023)
Packing-just about out the door for Sakhalin
HERE! Keep my torch ablaze my friend

No49
Aristotle
(03/06/1999; 17:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3024)
North of 49
Fare thee well, my Friend...whereEVER thee may fare!

I have enjoyed our all-too-brief association. Always carry a gold coin, Dr. Jones, and no scrape will be beyond your repair. All my best... ---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 17:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3025)
No49 and Aristotle
So long Northy. It sounds like you are off on a real adventure. Stay warm and don't forget to write.

Aristotle- I second your motion. I have only been at the round table for two months, and I also wonder about the following:
1.How many visitors/lurkers show up here in a normal day?
2.Who among the familiar posters are the old timers, and how long have they been here?

I visit two other gold forums(fori?) fairly often, but the commentary comes nowhere near the quality that exists here. I haven't posted anywhere else for that reason. Is this the same experience others are having? Anybody?
Aragorn III
(03/06/1999; 17:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3026)
Answering the Roll Call
Greeting to all as I pass through your warmest of halls. An errand awaits with small patience. I must ride. Keep my seat for my return!
The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 17:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3027)
Silver Tongue
Thanks for the tip on Flash Net. Unfortunately, I did not find a listing for them in the Salt Lake Yellow Pages. I wound up signing on with Earthlink(Sprint)and am hoping for the best. (For the record, MSN was awful). Anyway, I just wanted you to know that I appreciate the time you took to respond.

It was just killing me not to be able to get my USAGOLD fix whenever I needed it. I think I'll be okay now.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 18:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3028)
Aristotle
Hello.
SteveH
(03/06/1999; 18:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3029)
Message from GATA
Le Metropole members,

GATA is pleased to announce that we are now ready to
make an all out effort to mobilize the gold community
to confront those that we believe may have colluded
to hold down the price of gold.

Our web site www.gata.org can be viewed on the
internet and explains what the Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee is about. As the construction of our internet
site has been completed, we are ready to accelerate
the contribution phase of our campaign.

This week we will be contacting gold companies around
the world to elucidate our position and solicit their
financial support. We will explain that we believe
various financial institutions in the U.S. have colluded
to hold down the price of gold. We intend to launch an
investigation into the Long Term Capital Management
bailout, the Counterparty Risk Management Group and
to other situations that have been brought to our
attention.

It is also our position that many of these financial
institutions are short hundreds of tonnes of gold as
a result of "gold carry" trade positions. We believe
that, as a group, their short positions are greater
than one year's mine supply. We believe they know this
is a very dangerous position to be carrying and that
is why they may have "colluded" to keep the gold price
from rising. It is our intention to expose the size
of this short position.

Second, we are going encourage everyone associated
with the gold community to support GATA. We would like
them to verbally announce their support, make a
financial contribution if possible and, if they have a
website, to set up a mutually beneficial link up to
www.gata.org.

It is our goal to raise the funds necessary to retain
the services of an anti-trust law firm that will
spearhead the investigation.

Thus far, we have had serious discussions with
Philadelphia based, Berger & Montague on the issues we
are raising. It is our goal to retain them as our
attorneys. The karma seems right. Senior partner,
Merrill Davidoff, became a member of
www.lemetropolecafe.com the day before I appeared on
CNBC in behalf of GATA. As a result of that appearance
on TV, committee members, John Meyer and Chris Powell
and I flew to Philadelphia to meet with Davidoff
and two other Berger & Montague attorneys.

Davidoff is extremely knowledgeable about the gold
market and has a very good grasp on the fundamentals
of the gold industry. His associate, Jerome Marcus,
has become somewhat of a legend in that he was
one of the behind the scenes brains in the Paula
Jones case for 5 years.
New York Times-Jan.23-"..Mr. Marcus drafted legal
documents and was involved in many of important
strategic decisions in her lawsuit....As much as
any of Ms. Jones's attorney's of record, Mr. Marcus
helped keep Ms. Jones's case alive in the courts".

Berger and Montague won a $2 billion settlement in
the Drexel Burnham/Michael Milken case, and, among
many other cases was, or is, a litigant in the Exxon
Valdez case, the Orange County case, one of the
tobacco cases and one of the holocaust cases.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee believes that
we have enough momentum now to raise the funds
necessary to retain a law firm of this caliber
and to carry our agenda forward.

We ask you for your support and contributions.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Chairman
GATA
backlash
(03/06/1999; 19:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3030)
Roll call - Present & accounted for
Aristotle; Good idea. As a member of this Golden Table for some six months, I am an infrequent poster, but a regular visitor. (Almost daily because it is just too much to try to catch up if one gets behind more than a day or two.) The knowledge gleened from such a group as this has been a true blessing as well as a pleasure. My best to all and my Y2K post is in the pot simmering. One mustn't rush a dish that should be properly aged.

Best Wishes bl
turbohawg
(03/06/1999; 19:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3031)
rising rates
Once upon a time, when debt matters were still important, it was reported that the Klinton administration had refinanced much of the national debt short term to take advantage of falling interest rates. Now with interest rates on
the rise, the question of how much of that debt is short term becomes really important. I'm trying to locate info to determine the current numbers. Perhaps someone at the Forum knows exactly where to go.

This comes from a May '96 Special Report by Martin Armstrong of the Princeton Economics Institute (PEI) on Clintonomics. It can be found at: http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

>What is really scary is that 70% of our entire national debt is now funded 5 years or less and 33% is funded 1 year or less. This is simply nuts! It is as if the nation is financing everything on a Visa Card.<

The implication is that sharply rising interest rates could quickly cause interest on the national debt to consume the budget and make it difficult or impossible to pay ... i.e. by betting wrong on the future direction of interest rates the US govt could become the LTCM of governments.

Who do you think would do the 'bailing out' then ?? How voluntary do you think it would be ??
Farfel
(03/06/1999; 19:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3032)
************ SILVER $5.87 on March 12**********************
The greatest economic surprise so far this year has been the EURO's indisputable failure to shine relative to the US DOLLAR. There was much speculation that the EURO would perform well initially given that various nations unhappy with America had given indications they would send Dollar reserves back to America and replace them with EURO's. One nation that made a great deal of noise about the issue was TAIWAN. The government there is incensed by America's increasingly cozy relations with mainland China.

What happened? Why has the EURO been such a dismal performer to date?

It seems there are several notable reasons:

First, America seems to have done its best to improve relations with countries that indicated they would supplant US Dollar reserves for EURO's. In Taiwan's case, for example, America is willing to send new missle systems to the country. It is that little fact that has heightened tensions between Mainland China and America once again.

Secondly, America has undermined the world perception that Europe can ever take care of its own affairs. Clinton's abrupt intrusion into the Kosovo mess is simply America's latest assertion of its power to solve European problems. As a result, the EURO suffers while the US Dollar reaps the benefits.

Thirdly, America's continuing assault on Iraq constitutes an implicit, subtle threat to those Middle Eastern nations that might be considering tossing out US Dollar reserves in favor of EURO's. By its military action, America implies that those Middle Eastern nations that do not "cooperate" with America might suffer the same fate as Saddam some day.

Finally, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, the EURO arrived on the scene at a time of global currency crises (most notably those in S.E. Asia and Russia) and suffered as a result. The sad reality is that fiat currencies (excluding the US Dollar) are suffering from a loss of confidence all around the world. As such, given that the EURO is an entirely new currency, European nations should have done whatever was necessary to distinguish it from all other fiat currencies (especially the US Dollar!). Creating an appearance of intrinsic value would have made the most sense...and this could have been accomplished by BACKING the EURO with a very hefty percentage of GOLD. If the community of nations had known that each EURO is unequivocally a 50% gold-backed currency, then the new money probably would have knocked the wind out of the US Dollar from square one. Moreover, the EURO would have been so popularly received that even the hallowed Swiss Franc would have suffered an immediate weakening, thereby compelling Switzerland to issue an immediate announcement of a future INCREASE in gold backing (instead of recent Swiss hints that gold-backing will be removedfrom the Franc).

I am convinced that the past two years' sales/leasing of gold by European nations has done nothing other than to convey the appearance of nations desperately seeking to bail water out of their sinking ships. It is analogous to wealthy heirs compelled to go into their closets and sell all the family treasures in order to keep themselves financially solvent. Countries that have been able to hold onto their gold or even augment gold reserves appear to be the countries whose economic affairs are in the best shape. Europe should have recognized this fact and strongly linked its new currency to the gold metal. Although the EURO's birth has been a disaster to date, it is NOT too late for Europe to rectify the problem and and send a strong message to the world, specifically, "The EURO will indeed fly because we are NOW categorically linking it to gold."


Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 19:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3033)
Stranger --#3025
Same experience, same opinion. I read Kitco's rules and was heavily put off by their attitude about cultural idiom etc. Also their "directory format" is unpleasent at best.
Richard, Oregon
(03/06/1999; 21:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3034)
Ditto on the Forum
Stranger & Peter A - Ditto on quality of this forum. I used to read others also, to provide myself with an education. But after lingering here, I found there was no reason to look elsewhere. The exchange here is great (often over my head). Posters are truly helpful and friendly and the level of expertise is consistently "excellent".
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 21:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3035)
Aristotle

YO!
JA
(03/06/1999; 21:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3036)
Stranger & Aristotle
I believe MK"s counter would give you some indication of how many people frequent this site. But whether it is the same people many times or different people I couldn't tell you. I typically frequent this site daily and only post when time permits. My experience is similar to what you have expressed in terms of the quality of this site. In the other gold posting sites I frequent, I find myself speed-reading and maybe finding a nugget of interest every sixth or seventh item. On this site I read most everything and occasionally will download some of the best. I believe this site has gathered some bright articulate posters, maybe that is why some have likened this gathering to King Arthur's Court or Knights of the Round Table. I would place you both in that category as well as many others. I believe I have learned much from my visits here.

Stranger- your post #2995 was a "downloader"
Aristotle- I am still chuckling about your Y2k post. I would have to agree with your assessment, Gold coins are Y2k compliant.

Steve- a very interesting point you made on the impact on buying silver at it's height. And I was moaning to myself last week about the recent price rise in American Silver Eagles before I had an opportunity to buy some more.

By the way, for those not aware the story of King Arthur's Court while fictional is believed to have been taken from ancient legends of a real live King who established such a Kingdom, he was beloved by his people and proclaimed principles of honor and integrity. But that is a story for another time.

Now I must go to work on my weekend contest posts. I suspect predicting the price of silver by next Friday will be difficult, I am anticipating a fair amount of volatility.
Goldfly
(03/06/1999; 21:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3037)
ET- I disagree about the cash issue.
Of course businesses will accept cash. Especially small businesses. It is the only representation of wealth-transfer most would understand outside of electronic version of the "production chits." I bet they won't take a check or a credit card, in the chaos of a bank run, who could know it they'd ever collect? But cash is....is, uh, well- pardon the expression- "real."

Besides what else could they do? Just lock the door and go home?

But now that brings up another question. Would the USG then just turn around and ban the greenbacks? I doubt it. There is still too much of the economy that wouldn't be able to cope with an all-electronic money. Again, too many small businesses are not wired and couldn't be by year's end. Of course that may not matter, the feds could just forge ahead with their "contingency plans.' Damn the torpedoes.

At any rate, I still think having a month's worth of expenses in cash is a prudent move at this time. Business will not be able to move to a hard asset/barter system overnight, too many haven't a clue.

GF
Gandalf the White
(03/06/1999; 22:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3038)
*******SI9H****** $4.95
The biggest surprise this year (so far) in economics and finance for me has been the continued common belief in the USA, that what has continued to happen in Russia and Brazil this year, similar to that which began in Thailand in July of '97, and passed through Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, is thought NOT to be possible in the USA !!!! I and the Hobbits have seen what happened in Thailand before the crash and what the conditions are today, but that is another story for a later time. Let me say only, that it was and is not a happy story ! Chok Dee Krup
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/06/1999; 23:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3039)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part 1
By coincidence of life style, our family finds itself well along on Y2K prep. We're on 32 acres of meadow and timberland straddling a small white water river which is fed by year-round mountain streams. There is a 30-psi gravity water system and unlimited fire wood. Since we don't hunt (yet), we have deer that stop when I whistle. There is also an Elk heard that comes through. In addition to the house, there's a huge shop building with a smitty shed containing an old hand-crank bellows forge. (I've never used it, but ??).Since we are eleven miles from even a grocery store, we already live on one grocery run a week. Our immediate area is populated by dairy farmers, loggers and construction people who, like us, service the coastal second-home market. Lots of people here have wood heat, gravity water, gas or diesel storage tanks. and many have generators . Also, in the event of economic collapse, there would at least be local beef and dairy products. We're 70 miles outside Portland and past the open farm country, so we should be free from an influx of city folk in the event of chaos. (Which I personally do not expect). As Richard has recently mentioned, people in this whole region are used to power outages and landslide road blocks which last for days. If things do shut down, there won't be a large number of people impinging on a minority of those who are prepared. Even though I don't think there will be civil unrest and famine, we will be upgrading the areas of food storage, wood heat and cooking, and alternative power.

This subject is opening up so many sub topics, that I think I will post in three parts. For now I'll go over food, medical, shelter and energy. Later, I'll cover physical and financial security and, finally, surviving in the envisioned brave new world that follows.

A couple of weeks ago there was a brief exchange regarding food and nutrition, which is so controversial a subject that it would make a group of stock brokers and gold bugs appear to be friends and lovers. So let me say that when health nuts refer to nutrients, they're including enzymes, soil based organisms and all sorts of micro-god-knows-whats which are devastated by the high heat levels of canning. Our extensive research has led us to believe that the best long term storage items include grains, seeds, honey, olive oil, dry milk and all the freeze-dried vegetables you can afford. Additional items of value are yeast, nuts, "green" whole food concentrate powder, salt and spices, tea, beverage powders, and fresh foods such as potatoes, apples, etc. stored in a "root cellar." And, for meat eaters, some dried meat (jerky).

Medical, is another subject that people get apoplectic over. There are natural remedies ranging from colloidal silver water to home brewed herbal immune tonics. Even though we have personally handled everything from flu to life threat with nutrition and herbal medicine, I won't get into the subject on this Forum. One good source is http://www.healthfree.com.

Shelter and energy are interwoven, since alternative heat and cooking methods are floor-plan dependent. I recently completed a design where the forced air return intake was in the vaulted living room which had a small wood stove. 2000 sq feet was amply heated by the minimal electrical energy required to run the blower. We are currently researching every available wood stove for the ideal compromise between a viewable fire and cooking potential, both as a bread oven and for pots and pans. There's some pretty nice stuff available, but at a price. Also then, where do you put it? We have a gasoline generator, but will probably get a new model in a diesel. I'm hoping there is something that will have a steady enough output to run the computers. Diesel fuel may be stored more safely and much longer than gasoline, and ideally one would have a diesel-powered vehicle. In addition to the obvious reasons, it's a lot less likely to be siphon bait. One more thing is the dependency on a generator for refrigeration. In the 1960s, I spent summers in a beach community that had no electricity. We had old propane operated refrigerators, (along with built in coleman lamps). Does anyone know if such a thing exists these day's?

Basically our desire for a self sufficient life style, and a passion for privacy and breathing room, gave us a"leg up" for Y2K.

I'll be back tomorrow on defense and finance.

Peter A. ( and Robin on food and medical)

JA
(03/06/1999; 23:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3040)
A guess at the price of Silver
March Silver at the close on March 12th ****$5.10**** We all know that predicting commodity prices into the future is all a matter of understanding the relationship of price and time. For those of you wondering how I came up with the above price at the time MK dictated to us? I simply began by updating the March silver contract in my Ensign commodities charting program. I checked the Stocastics, a little oversold but I expect a little more downward pressure. Then I reviewed the bollinger bands, March silver closed at the bottom band yesterday but the low of the day was below that, which also would suggest a continuation of that trend. Then I tried to draw long term and short term cycles, then hit the cycle forecast tool, then looked at the Elliott Wave Swing Lines, then looked at the window envelopes, then checked out the Fibonacci price levels, then reviewed the Fibonacci time ruler and Gann time ruler, then I constructed the Gann lines, then hit the Japanese Candlesticks display key, then looked at the moving averages, then reviewed the volume and open interest, then looked at several oscillators and the point and figure chart, then the relative strength index, and then the William's %R index. And then I simply guessed!!!

The greatest surprise for me this past year has not been the extremely overvalued equities market, but rather the extreme measures that the Fed, the Central Bankers, and the Executive Branch of the government have been willing to take to keep it propped up. The timing of the rate cuts and the bringing together the major New York banks to salvage LTCM was so blatant, it is amazing to me there was not some huge public and congressional outcry. If these supposedly competing banks can have meetings to discuss how to salvage LTCM, what is to prevent them from discussing commodities, interest rates, currencies and any thing else that might be to their joint advantage. This says to me the Fed knows they have created a monster bubble so big that their options have been eliminated. All they can do now is try to manage the bubble even if it requires desperate approaches. Unfortunately the average citizen does not seem to care about upholding the laws of the land in terms of banks breaking anti-trust laws, or the behavior of the President, as long as the economy is seemingly healthy.

While stock valuations are at all time highs many are suggesting they are really understated. The large stock option programs that have proliferated in recent years, dilute the value of the stock and yet don't get counted as inflation numbers for government wage increase statistics. I also do not believe the government statistics take into account the increase in the practice of delivering more pay in the form of variable pay, such as bonuses, incentive programs, gainsharing plans etc. I believe there has been fairly significant inflation in wages in recent years but not in base pay which seems to get measured.

So they have Humpty Dumpty up on the wall in the form of a major equities goose egg. I suspect they will try to keep him up there until July. Prior to Humpty Dumpty� the fall off the wall, the major media will publish reports of citizens over-reacting to Y2k fears, they really won't be over reactions but probably some minor thing in some small town, but the media will incessantly focus on it like they did in Rodney King Affair ( which caused a riot by the way) until the people are lead to believe these "over reactive nuts" are about to cause major havoc to the stock market and the economy. The government and others will issue warnings and once the believe they have fixed the mindset of the people, then they will allow this Humpty Dumpty to fall and all the Kings horses and all the kings men won't be able to put him together again. At least not right away like was the case in the 1987 correction. This will allow the fed and central banks to put blame elsewhere and then try to propose a new system to the people. Maybe a one World Currency to go along with a One World Government? Who knows, that's one scenario, but many others could be played out. I may try to suggest several of those in my Y2K post.


The Stranger
(03/06/1999; 23:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3041)
ET and Peter
Thanks, ET.

Peter-That sounds like an awfully good life to me, buddy. You might not even notice the passing of the millennium if you aren't careful.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3042)
Stranger
I didn't give you all the data yet, see,there's this mortgage -----
onlychild
(03/07/1999; 00:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3043)
Aristotle: Here Sir!
Lurking almost daily, family emergency, no time to talk.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3044)
JA
I agree with you on the rate cuts. If we are including events before 1 Jan. then the singular surprise #1 would be the between meeting, out of the blue, interest rate cut, the day beore options expired. I'll bet a lot of put holders and call writers were very suprised
beesting
(03/07/1999; 00:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3045)
COINS *******$5.42*******-SILVER- Wild Guess
Aristotle thank you and ALL the others for the input,I would just like to second what JA just stated msg.3036.

A few THOUGHTS on Y2K:Having moved out of the city long ago 1983,because at that time I felt unsafe,I feel some cities could(worst case scenario)become war zones if major disruptions last more than a week.Paranoid law enforcement,vs out of work drunken masses could erupt into Watts Riots all over again. One thing I haven't seen mentioned before is recreational vehicles,campers,motorhomes,and trailers self contained would be an excellent way to wait out the storm,also portable if things get to hot in your neighborhood.Remember to fill the fuel tank,and have a good map of the back country. Don't laugh,but another thing I haven't seen mentioned is the lowly coconut.People in tropical climates have survived catastrophic typhoons and hurricanes subsisting mainly on coconuts.Coconuts don't spoil easily and contain up to a quart of refreshing uncontaminated water in their centers.A person can live on about 3 coconuts a day for a very long time.At my local market,they cost about $1.00 a piece.The hollow shell can also be used for a bowl.

Change of pace to coins,this is all from memory so I'm certain to be off quite a bit on dates.South Africa introduced(as far as I know)the first Gold coin tied directly to the Worlds spot price of Gold around 1967.At that time Americans were still not supposed to own Gold bullion.The K-Rand became very popular in countries where Gold ownership was lawful.In My Humble Opinion between 1967 and around 1981 the world was evolve-ing into a world wide Gold standard thru the K-Rand all by itself.What Happened! If any of you remember,and here I'm very fuzzy on dates,an economic boycott was initiated against South Africa because of racial policies in South Africa,again,IMHO this was a detraction to take the focus away from what was going on with Gold.The BIS and all the Central Banks of the world were losing control of the money.They had to do something drastic. Next,a plan was initiated to keep the people of the world off the Gold standard when conducting business with themselves,here is the plan:
Since CB's were and still are the largest holders of bullion in the world they would undermine the K-Rand by issue-ing bullion coins from selected spots around the Globe.But,the coins would not be uniform in amount of bullion content or denomination,therefore cause-ing each issue to have a different value and therefore disrupting the natural evolution of the worldwide Gold standard that had been started by the South African K-Rand.I submit,the majority of the people of the world,Chinese,Indians,Africans,Russians,Brazilians etc. etc. etc.would rather be on a uniform Gold Standard than a paper standard.The way to do it is for the people to demand a standardized,by weight,and bullion content'set of coins that in a few years could be recognized by anybody in the world.Our Bard ANOTHER stated this would never happen because Governments don't want control of the money ever again in the hands of the people.Food for thought..........beesting
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 00:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3046)
Test
last post attempt rejected.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 01:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3047)
beesting
Great item about the coconuts, told the family nutritionist, she said "marvelous". Food for thought, or rather, thought for food.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 01:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3048)
My hat is off...
Not long ago, with Jordan's loss the world, too, lost a good friend. This past day the mid-east faced the departure of another good soul...Bahrain's emir, Sheikh Isa. A three-month period of mourning, and a five-day financial and bank holiday have begun as of Saturday.

Five days...(would make me edgey if I were on a PAPER standard). I think the good folks of Bahrain can properly mourn with certain peace of mind.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 01:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3049)
JA 03/06 #3040
In the subject box: *****price of silver*****
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 01:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3050)
The Roll Call continues
Thanks to everyone who has answered the call thus far. So far all have been familiar friends. Well met, one and all!

I agree with the high praise for the quality of posts to be found here. As reluctant as I was to issue the call for roll, which is a bit off-topic, I thought it would help us all build a bit of comraderie (sp?) and help launch us into a brighter, more productive future. I have found that I possess a bit more information than I ever thought I did, and that the voyage of discovery (or should I say retrieval) is launched only when a question is posed as a motivator. Am sure many of you are exactly the same.
With a gold interest as the powerful tie that binds us together, the more vocal among us are becoming of one mind through the sharing of our thoughts and concerns. Before long, we will sit at this Round Table silently nodding and blinking at one another with little in the way of fresh news, opinion, or understanding. The education must continue. We need our silent friends to begin by answering the roll, and eventually by providing new thoughts or concerns for our general consideration and deliberation.

Beesting...agreed. The Medium of Exchange as printed by any given government need not stand in the way of the world moving toward a gold standard. The nice thing about the Krugerrand in particular among the bullion coins, and the U.K. Sovereign for that matter, is the absence of a legal-tender face value. Knowledge of its weight is all that is needed. If I were tasked today with the job of establishing a single currency for the world, I would laugh! My job is already done. It is gold. I would simply have to organize a PR campaign to remind the uninitiated. And what name would I give to the currency units? Why, 'grams' of course! ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 02:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3051)
ET and Goldfly...what will be the value of cash?
I'm rather enjoying this Y2K weekend. It really lets a guy stretch his intuitive imagination toward predicting an unprecedented condition of extraordinary magnitude.

I would say this issue regarding physical cash is one worthy of full consideration by the Round Table. I agree with so much that is posted here, sometimes I forget what has been my own thoughts, and what I have absorbed from others. Any information, once gained, is a permanent part of the new-me, so in the long run it doesn't matter, but it makes for difficult discussion in the short term. So forgive me today and henceforth for improper attribution of the original thought.

This issue though...it is fresh and the lines are (for now) clearly drawn, though I have not yet pick a side. I have been internally conflicted over this for several months already. What will be the future value of cash in light of Y2K? ET suggests it will be nearly without value; Goldfly says the opposite. I can envision a future wherein both are right, but at different times...ultimately I think I'd side with ET.

The banks WILL run out of cash. They are already plenty worried, and are training their employees in preparation for dealing with a panicy population. Maintaining a semblance of calmness and confidence is their primary Y2K battle plan. I wish them all the best. Back to reality...

When the physical cash is withdrwn from the system of commerce (mid-year?) we will have to get by solely on electronic-type payments; credit cards, and checks (which are electronically cleared through the Fed). Will people worry about the safety of their electronic accounts, and their continued viability after the clock strikes 2000? Will they have similar concerns about their stock portfolios? I suggest the answer is yes. Stocks will be sold off, and people will go on electronic shopping sprees...buying up everyting of value as a Y2K contingency plan. All of this money chasing limited goods will effectively remove all pricing 'rules' as we know them. Like Germany, 1923? Virtually unlimited demand on a very limited supply of goods. It will be a manufacturing heyday. The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about.
QUESTION: Will a dual pricing system develop? I doubt that institutional stores like Wal-mart could adapt to it. Maybe a Mom & Pop shop would have duel prices...to satisfy their personal desire for real cash. Mmmmmmmmmmmm...probably not. The value of money will be going down the tubes.

OK...now POST-Y2K. If the electricity is still on, can the dollar ever regain any respect after you've used $50 for one can of beans? Doubtful.
If the electricity goes down for a period of time, first of all, what store is going to be open to engage in a cash sale anyway? Most commerce will occur between real people in a world where suddenly everyone is an entreprenuer like in the good ol' days before corporations ruled the earth, and none of us were born. As far as cash goes, this is where Goldfly's position finds its best argument. The physical stuff will be all that there is...and there won't be much compared to all the electronic stuff that went ZAP!-Bzzzzt... But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power? Additionally, you could expect the Govt to fire up its emergency generators and continue to crank out bills as fast as they can. How will they ever find the strength to stop? "Give the people what they want!" they'll say. Now we've REALLY got Germany 1923! All the entreprenuers with something extra to sell will not sell it for something of uncertain value. Sorry Goldfly, I think I've just now convinced myself that the dollar is doomed, outright. Will I or do I plan to have some cash anyway? Of course (done deal). I'm prepared for all eventualities. How else could I manage the calmness that is me? Peter's wonderful position is the best way to secure one's lifetime of achievement. But if that opportunity is not feasible, or if you can have your cake and eat it too, then gold is for you. The ultimate portable property. "The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it."--T.B. Aldrich

I encourage everyone else to weigh in on this too. I'm inclined to believe that in my haste I have over-simplified and over-looked something that might change my mind on the paper dollar's future. It seems certain however, that any value it would have would first have to pass through hell and back. "Not an easy journey," says Dante. ---Aristotle
JA
(03/07/1999; 03:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3052)
Y2k post
I view Y2k like a worldwide tornado that has been spotted. What is not known is where it will set down or how extensive the damage will be. I think all would agree this is a little bigger than a whirl wind. I have never lived in tornado country but my understanding is they are fairly unpredictable, that seems to be the case with the Y2k issue, everyone knows there are issues and the date it will occur, but no one knows for sure the extent that it will affect their part of the country or the world for that matter, their employer, their neighbors or them personally. If we know a tornado is coming, even if we think it may likely miss us, it is simply not prudent to do nothing unless we are absolutely certain it will not come our way. No one seems to be absolutely certain about anything pertaining to Y2k.

Just to site an example the company I work for has a plant where they produce a number of phosphate products, the phosphate is mined up in the mountains and then feed into a pipeline leading to the plant 80 miles away. There are over 2,000 computerized systems, motors, embedded chips and other gadgets required to run the plant. If the plant shuts down and the pipeline gets backed up that can be a costly undertaking. But it is also a costly undertaking to shut down the plant and pipeline and then slowly start it all up again. What will the plant do? They don't know yet but one can imagine similar scenarios in hundreds of thousands of plants and systems all over the world. I am sure they will deal with similar issues in atomic energy plants (which I have read take 4 months and electricity to shut down), and transportation, and food processing plants, and everything else. What happens in our lives without computers? Not much these days.

Anyone had personal or Company computer problems? How often do the computer experts tasked to fix the problem get it right the first time?

If any one has experienced trying to figure out something as simple as a spread sheet with several macro's in it, then they realize it is sometimes almost easier to redo the whole thing oneself. Many of the programmers trying to make these systems Y2k compliant are trying to figure out what some previous programmer was doing. Not an easy task.

Lets say the computer and systems people do a good job and so there are only minor disruptions and they do not take long to fix.

Other Considerations

A point that has been widely discussed is that fear and panic could cause stress to our systems, particularly our financial systems that may cause more damage than the Y2k bug itself.

When people start to add up the cost of minor disruptions to the bottom lines of numerous corporations worldwide will they decide to get out of equities?

The World is full of people with extreme ideologies, some of which may find Y2k as an opportune time to attempt terrorist acts.

While Russia's economy is bankrupt much of their military infrastructure is still in place. Why? Do they still have plans for world Domination? An interesting read on this subject is "New Lies For Old" by Anatoliy Golitsyn a former KGB officer who says the tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the peace movement was all planned prior to it taking place. He actually wrote the book before it took place and predicted much of what has occurred. There was an article in last weeks wall street journal stating there have been numerous recent attempts at getting into the pentagon computers coming out of Russia. Why?

What about our own government are they beyond using Y2k for mischief? There is much written surrounding the Oklahoma City Bombing to suggest not. If Y2k is not a issue why all the National guard and FEMA exercises. Are the Executive Orders common sense preventative measures or written to increase Federal control?

This country is special, and I believe there are both scriptural blessings and warnings pertaining to this land. Many of the earlier settlers of this country came here to gain freedom of worship. The founders of this country intended to preserve those freedoms through the constitution. When the people follow the precepts of God they will prosper in the land. But when they are ripe in iniquity the story is not so favorable. Are we as a people now ripe in iniquity in this country?

So What am I doing?

First Trusting in God. Whatever happens whether big or small, it will be okay I am sure of that.

I find it interesting that many of the things being suggested for Y2k preparations my family began doing years ago. My church has for years encouraged it's members to store a years supply of food, clothes and fuel where it is legal and practical. This world is an uncertain place with ongoing natural disasters, potential unemployment, health problems or whatever. Depending on what part of the world we live in we may be subject to Hurricanes, Floods, Tornado's, severe winter storms, earthquakes, volcanoes or numerous other things one could come up with. It is only prudent to attempt to be prepared for what ever the world may dish out. We try to do that, not necessarily because of Y2K but because it is a prudent thing to do. I don't claim to know if Y2K will cause major disruptions or not but I tend to think that it is likely that at some point in time those preparations we have made over the years may be a critical to us and possibly our neighbors.

I am fortunate enough to live is a small community ( that's if 200,000 is considered small). I don't see the same level of potential problems that might occur in a major metropolitan area like New York or L.A.

While we have been working at what I call self sufficiency for some time we are still learning. I thought I might share a little of what we try to do. I should emphasize that the years supply of food is limited to what would be considered the basics. Water is the most critical because a person can live many days without food but only a few days without water. We store some water and have actually used it on several occasions in the past when we have had power outages. It helps to be able to flush the toilets when the power is out. We have our own septic tank so we do not have to worry about the city sewer backing up because the pumps are not working. As you know sanitation can become a problem so I thought It would be critical to be able to flush the toilets. You all probably remember the old bomb shelters during the cold war. I read recently that if people actually tried to live in them for more than several days the sanitation conditions would have been unbearable.

We store some water in 1 gallon, 5 gallon and 50 gallon drums. We have a little hand pump for the 50 gallon drums since they are a little heavy to poor. We are also fortunate enough to have our own well. I recently bought a generator, even though it would be difficult to store enough fuel to run a generator for very long. I thought the generator use might be limited run the well pump if need be or to keep the freezer going to attempt to preserve the contents. With the generator I am now less concerned about storing water. I know there are also hand pumps that one can buy on the market to pump a well and I thought I would look into those over the summer. My generator is gas but was talking to a friend last night at dinner and he said he bought a propane converter for his and they are not expensive and then you can use either. I will probably get a converter since propane is easier and safer to store.

A very basic food item that keeps a long time is wheat. We store wheat but try to use it in our meal preparation. We have a grinder and my wife makes whole-wheat bread about once a week. The wheat grinder has a hand pump or could be run off the generator as well. We use store-bought bread as well but the homemade is healthier and for some of our meals we prefer it by far. We also use whole wheat muffins, pancakes, scones and other items. If you want something green you can always sprout wheat, which is also very nutritious. Growing up we ate cracked wheat cereal but I grew a little tired of it. You want to store things you typically eat in your diet so any change is not too drastic.

We also store rolled oats which is a part of my wife's granola recipe, it's really good, much better than store bought. However some of the other ingredients such as the nuts and coconut do not store as long as the rolled oats. We store some other grains such as rice and popcorn as well. We can a fair amount of fruit each year, applesauce, peaches pears, jams and syrups. We also freeze and dry fruits and vegetables. Of course if the power went out the freezer food wouldn't last too long. But then in January it may be cold enough that I could just move it outside. We have a large food storage area and stock the shelves and try to rotate it regularly. If you are not doing this, a good way to get started is when you go to the store is just buy double of what you normally would. After you do this for a while your pantry is full. Then date it so you use the oldest first. I think I mentioned in a previous post that we were challenged several years back to go for two weeks without going to the store. We didn't do too bad, we all prefer real milk to powdered.

This may sound like a lot of food but I have six children and they all tend to eat. Actually three are in college, two away and one at home but they will all be home for the holidays.

We raise a large garden each year. If you add up the time spent it would be cheaper to buy the food at the store, but the quality of the food can not be replicated in the store. Tomatoes, corn and carrots from the garden are far superior to what you can buy at the store. In the summer there are times when the entire meal is from the garden and home production. There is a real positive feeling of accomplishment, self sufficiency that comes by living off much of what we grow (at-least during the summer months). Plus it's a great a great place to teach children how to work, weeds always grow.

I have a wood-burning stove, again I think our gas furnace is more efficient and less trouble but there is something about the warmth from a live fire, that forced air can't replicate. The wood burning stove has a flat top and could be used for cooking meals. We also have a barbecue grill, propane and gas camping stoves and Dutch ovens. You can bake bread in Dutch ovens. I used to be a Scout Master and so have a fair amount of camping gear. I plan to have a couple of extra cord of wood on hand.

We have a number of books on herbs and natural healing, I am learning that herbs can cure most ailments and without the side effects that often accompany prescription medicine. Now if you need to set a broken arm or leg you probably need a doctor herbs won't do that.

I have accumulated some gold and silver coins for barter and whatever comes up. I figure gold for the big stuff and silver for the small stuff. I plan to have some cash on hand.

Everyone in the family has a bicycle that could be used for transportation if we ran out of fuel and needed to run errands. And my daughter has a horse.

I also have 40 acres of farm ground out in the country that would support livestock and crops if need be. My mining partner told me that during the depression, the way his family survived is they grew row crops on some acreage in the country and then trucked it into the city and sold it. If worse came to worse maybe I could do that.

I think another prudent element of self sufficiency is to be out of debt. I am not there yet as I still owe on my house. Now if gold and silver stocks decided to make a significant move before the end of the year I might consider using the gain to pay off my house.

As a last resort I also have 40 acres of mountain property bordering 100 acres that my brother owns, there is a fair amount of game on the property and we are planting fish in a pond. The summers would be fun but the winters would be a little tough.

I am sure that is more than anyone wanted to hear so I am off to bed.





AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3053)
excuse me, folks...
testing

testing

testing

testing

testing
testing

SteveH
(03/07/1999; 10:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3054)
*****$5.55******Silver close on 12th
Biggest suprise in economics or finance so far this year? You could say that Brazil devaluation was the biggest suprise but then you might have to eat crow when China does the same. But these weren't suprises, for those in the know knew it would happen. No, the biggest suprise was the long term bond rates going up to around the 5.61% level. I believe most folks expected that it would drop, not rise. This one fact and this one fact alone will be the greatest determining factor of all factors on the dollar, the yen, and the gold carry trades. Why? Because it the long term bond is market driven and reflects the risk building in the bond market. Where goes bonds goes the rest. eom
AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3055)
bucks[1] and bucks[2]


Regarding Aristotle's (3/7/99; 02:55:36MDT - Msg ID:3051) ------

"All of this money chasing limited goods will effectively remove all
pricing 'rules' as we know them. Like Germany, 1923? Virtually
unlimited demand on a very limited supply of goods. It will be a
manufacturing heyday. The real economy will not slow down this year
as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand
as never before."

Right. Paradoxically, Y2K-induced tangibles buying will act as a
stimulant to a beleaguered real economy. In this way, if Y2K were not
an objective problem (i.e. if there were not in actuality billions of
lines of broken code), the Y2K-induced movement toward tangibles and
away from intangibles and electronic "assets" might actually save our
asses from a total collapse and long depression. Of course, even then
there would be wrenching disruptions (e.g. millions of ruined
"investors" clinging to amazon.com at $10, praying for a recovery),
but with the real economy supported so powerfully it might not be
catastrophic. I fear, however.....

"As far as cash goes, this is where Goldfly's position finds its best
argument. The physical stuff will be all that there is...and there
won't be much compared to all the electronic stuff that went
ZAP!-Bzzzzt... But again, how much respect can you have for a buck
that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?"

This thing is unprecedented and very difficult to think about. We
will have several $trillion of stock market and bond bloat, suddenly
seeking (or at least a some good deal of it seeking) physical cash,
metals and tangibles of all kinds. How would this actually work out?
That is, if ANYthing tangible -- including fiat bucks (the PHYSICAL
greenbacks, that is) -- is suddenly "where the action is"? And it is
worth noting that the supply of physical greenbacks is quite limited:
only about $450 billion (of which at least 2/3 is out of the country
and may have a very hard time getting back, post-Y2K) in circulation,
with about $200 billion in reserve. This is really chump change, in
the big picture. I wonder if it is possible, in an even
moderate-disruption post-Y2K world, to print and distribute money
fast enough (that is, print PHYSICAL money, mind you) to cause
inflation. Gary North has pointed out that the Bureau of Engraving
and Printing already operates 24x7, and that it takes 2-3 YEARS to
get delivery of a new intaglio press (the special presses that they
use for greenbacks). In other words, the system is already maxed-out
and without timely recourse in this world in which everything is
operating smoothly, all infrastructure is functional, etc. I suppose
they could trash the $5 and $10 plates and switch to $50 and $100,
but fast enough? What about distribution? What about that special
paper? What about....? And to top it off, keep in mind that entire
generations have now been brainwashed into thinking that greenbacks
are money, the only money (and, correspondingly, those generations
are utterly unaccustomed to thinking of gold and silver as money).

IN OTHER WORDS, could not popular perceptions, combined with a unique
(Y2K) set of circumstances, combined with the perennial need for
money of SOME/any sort, synergize to cause a quite novel and
unexpected outcome? Is it possible that we goldbu... er, goldHEARTS,
with our superior understanding and awareness of the "inevitable"
fall of the buck, may be outsmarting ourselves?

The answer requires a key distinction: where buck[1] = ELECTRONIC
bucks, and buck[2] = PHYSICAL greenbacks: the fate of the buck[1] IS
inevitable; the fate of the buck[2] is questionable, and depending on
the precise nature and extent of Y2K disruptions, could be very
favorable for a long time.

Me, I'm just more convinced than ever of the primacy of TANGIBLES
of any and every sort. Convert those symbols into actuals, I say.
Like oatmeal, It's the right thing to do.

AEL
(03/07/1999; 10:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3056)
"Hoarding" versus Stockpiling

Thought you all might be interested in a short essay I am preparing:


"HOARDING" versus STOCKPILING

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am concerned about the use of the pejorative "hoarding" to refer to
stockpiling or even any material preparation. I think that this is not only
counterproductive from the standpoint of Y2K preparation, but dangerous, as
it may precurse civil rights violations and worse.

Duncan Long remarks that "purchasing food when it is plentiful and storing it
for an emergency is not hoarding (despite what some government workers and TV
commentators might have you believe). Storing food during a time of plenty is
stockpiling. Hoarding will be done after a disaster when those who didn't
prepare strip grocery shelves and squirrel away the food for their own use"
(http://www.michaelhyatt.com/overview.htm). I agree, and I would add that
making a deposit each month in a savings account or in a mutual fund would
never be called "hoarding"; that would be called "prudent saving" or
"investing for the future". So it is with food and other consumables, as long
as you are accumulating it while there is still plenty for everyone.

Consider for a moment the subtle class-baiting in the "hoarding" epithet. Is
not the obscene concentration of wealth, everywhere evident, a most egregious
form of "hoarding", and indeed, is not capitalism itself a veritable
celebration of same? Through this lens, could anything be more absurd than
the depiction as greedy hoarders of individuals wishing to exchange a few
Federal Reserve Notes for things of real value? Are not hundred-billion
dollar hedge fund operators, currency speculators and other magnates of the
casino economy the real "hoarders"? And if you want to bring it down to
individual terms, is not the bidding-up of stock prices to absurd,
unsustainable levels (e.g. amazon.com at $200/share!) by millions of
speculators a form of hoarding? Their hoarding has made it difficult for
sensible investors to venture into stocks with any measure of confidence. The
prices are just too damn high.

Besides, the "hoarding" epithet disparages the concept of saving anything, as
though one would be remiss for not devouring or spending on the spot whatever
comes into one's posession. Would it be preferable, rather than putting by a
few essentials, to hurl oneself into the typical American consumption orgy --
beanie babies, "sport-utility" vehicles, Big Macs, cell phones, and heaps of
other trash, washed down with barrels of petrol. This orgy has gone on for
decades with scant protest; NOW, suddenly, prudent individuals get tarred as
"hoarders" for accumulating water and brown rice!

Further, this issue of "hoarding" probably will be seized upon by demogogues
seeking easy scapegoats when things heat up, and could become an excuse for
still more-intrusive state snooping, or worse. Ed Yourdon has remarked that
"stockpiling extra food in 1998 might be considered unnecessary or crazy, but
it could be labeled 'hoarding' in late 1999 and declared illegal"
(http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2ksafehaven.html). Indeed it could be.
"Hoarders" -- those who chose real goods over state-issued promissary notes
(cash, bonds) and especially electronic representations of same -- may even
find themselves held up as enemies of the people, and the stage will be set
for such outrages by those referring to stockpiling with the pejorative
"hoarding", or by describing any and all individual preparation efforts as
somehow selfish, anti-social or "dysergic". The irony in all this is that
precisely the opposite is true: personal preparation and stockpiling are,
regardless of individual motivations, inherently supportive of families,
neighborhood and community.

Here's why: Increased purchasing of food and other consumables now, and at
least through mid-1999, will filter through the system and increase supply of
finished goods. (The "invisible hand" has its uses, in a pinch.) Early
stockpiling will not deprive anyone else, and will actually INCREASE the
supply for others later. (There is even some evidence that this has begun to
happen; see: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/3508)

It is important to buy now while the Just-In-Time systems are functional and
have a chance to respond to your purchases. And it is likely that continuous
high demand through and beyond 1/1/2000 will have a salutary effect on
supplies well into the "crunch" period (later on in 2000), unless there are
catastrophic distribution problems. Remember that there is a huge overhang of
cheap bulk commodities (soybeans, grains, pork, sugar, etc.), available at
incredibly low prices, that are waiting to be incorporated into finished
goods. You can stimulate this production process in all its phases -- i.e.
you can support the real economy and help increase the supply of finished
goods for everyone -- by adding your money energy to the aggregate demand,
the sooner the better. Production and distribution systems, even if crippled
after the rollover, will respond to increased demand unless the
infrastructure melts down catastrophically (in which case all bets are off,
anyway).

(Of course the longer term goal is to move toward local materials and
finished goods, and away from dependence on non-local or foreign stuff. But
it will take time to develop local production methods and infrastructures;
probably 5-10 years, minimum. Meanwhile the only option is to support the
real economy as we find it today -- as much local stuff as possible,
supplemented with lentils from Minnesota, t-shirts from South Carolina,
whatever. On the other hand, if Y2K is "bad" enough, the conversion to local
sources may have to be compressed into a year or two... one of many potential
blessings.)

Well-prepared individuals will act to reduce the ultimate stress on the
system when and if the crunch comes. Having stocked-up early, they will be
out of the way (not out shopping and scrounging, adding to the congestion)
when the serious demand gets underway, and of course they will not be taking
away a share of (then-limited) finished goods. Well-prepared individuals will
be among those who do NOT have to rely on emergency rations and services from
the Red Cross, or FEMA, or whoever -- no doubt to the great relief of those
(then-swamped) organizations. And last but not least, such individuals will
have the wherewithall to lend a hand, share with others, and generally be an
asset rather than a liability to the community.

Whether or not the prepared will have the WILL to share with others is
another matter, one of individual conscience. But in any case being
well-prepared gives one the OPTION of behaving graciously, supporting
unprepared friends and family, and perhaps others in the neighborhood -- the
old, young, weak or sick -- as supplies allow. The well-prepared ones could
even wind up saving lives. Being without those options serves no one.

The issue of being well-prepared ought not be confused with the issue of
ownership, or the issue of who, ultimately, will use the stuff. (Consider:
you can GIVE IT ALL AWAY, retaining NONE for yourself, if that is what your
conscience dictates.) The point is to stock up now while supplies are
essentially unlimited and production and distribution are still plastic --
i.e. while your efforts are still NOT "hoarding".

Last, there is the subtler matter of the way in which preparedness and
stockpiling express a faith in the individual, family and community, and acts
to increase citizen empowerment, while implying less than perfect faith in
authority. This point was made excellently in the 12/22/98 issue of the "Y2K
Alert" (an email newsletter from alertsend@@y2knewswire.com):

Why has Y2K preparedness been so loudly scorned? Here's the answer:
because preparing for Y2K calls into question everything that big
business and big government wants you to believe about our country.
They want you to think the banking industry is strong. But if we all
pull out a little cash, the banking system crashes, revealing its
weakness. They want you to think the stock market is strong. But if
we all sell a few stocks, the market plummets and reveals its
weakness. The examples could continue, of course, but you get the
idea. PREPARING for Y2K is intellectually inconsistent with the
ideas government officials want Americans to hold.

Right. I would only volunteer that building up a reserve of things of real
value (as opposed to paper "money" or, worse, entries in some electronic
ledger) is HIGHLY intellectually inconsistent with the ideas government
officials, central bank ministers, and corporate lords want Americans to hold
-- inconsistent and perhaps even subversive. To question the value of the
state's promissary notes ("money") is to question the legitimacy of the state
itself, and that, of course, is the Ultimate Heresy.

-----------------

A bizarre endnote: I wrote the words "enemies of the people" (above) several
weeks back, before Peter De Yager -- a Y2K commentator -- actually used that
phrase to refer to people asking for their money from the banks!
Unbelievable. I knew it was going to happen; I had NO clue as to how FAST.
This is getting scary.


SteveH
(03/07/1999; 10:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3057)
Why too Kay? A simpleton's view.
I believe the road to Y2K will be the one trodden with the most risk.
Further, the international banking system is the one at most risk. For
the rest, I believe having two weeks worth of cash, food, and fuel will
be all that is necessary for a comfortable entry into the new year. Let
me explain.

Buy on rumor, sell on news. The traders amongst us know this adage. It
is true, isn't it? People talk of "the expectation is built into the
price" all the time. The road to Y2K is exactly the same thing. People
will expect the worst. They will stress the banking system and the food
system. Any Y2K elements will be stressed and then, on the day of the
event, people will wake up and say, "Hey, this isn't as bad as I
thought." Within weeks to a few months you will see ads in the bargain
corners of all communities with generators at fire sale prices, cases of
food being given to charities and churches, and Silver and gold coins
selling at a discount to the spot market -- this as people unwind their
preparatory stance to Y2K.

It is this trip to year-end that will be the most prolific eye-opener to
our banking system and to our food distribution channel. I envision
banks may take a few extra holidays and enforce cash withdrawal
limitations at ATM's (more strict than normal) and at teller's booths. I
believe the National government will introduce measures to ensure that
credit cards and checks are legal tender and must be accepted for all
debts public and private. They may even back up credit cards and checks
with something similar to an FDIC guarantee. If they can pull that off,
which I expect that they can, then the banking crisis may be averted. If
commerce looses faith in checks and credit cards then cash and precious
metal will assume greater importance and commerce will be harmed and
recovery slow.

Food distribution will be affected by Y2k. As people continue hoarding
food in greater numbers inventories in grocery distribution centers will
at first dwindle but if the suppliers to grocery chains gear up to
handle this we may actually see an increase in available long-term food
stuff. As the demand increases we should see this preparatory supply
knocked down in size and as the year-end approaches we will probably
receive news of major metropolitan areas whose 9-11's and IGA's can't
meet the demand and close their doors. This might incite some riots but
I believe these will be isolated cases. American's and Canadian's are
marvelously sharing people and I believe that most communities will join
forces to overcome and shortages caused by the Y2K event.

As the actual year 2000 enfolds, I believe companies who didn't
properly prepare for the Y2K and notably larger companies will be hurt
or put out of business due to their lack of preparation. I feel, though,
that the vast majority of small businesses will not be affected or
minimally affected by Y2K. Why? Because small business rely on modern
PC's and can easily adopt quicker than the mammoth companies who rely on
the miles of COBOL code that will be most affect by the Y2K event.

Government agencies who also rely on 'old code' will also be affected
but this won't end the services they provide merely slow it down.
Knowing governmental agencies as I do, I expect that they all have
contingency plans that they have prepared which will allow them to
provide their primary services in the event of computer failure. It
will merely slow down the dissemination of those services. The adage
"hurry up and wait" will become the moniker of the day.

So is Y2K going to be the big bad bully everybody thinks it will be?
Yes, in as much as it is a self-fullfilling prophecy, but no in that the
contingencies of those who are to be affected will get them by with
reduced services or no impact at all as people will learn to marvelously
adopt to what they thought would be Armageddon but only turned out to be
an exercise in "now what are we going to do with all this food?" Buy on
rumor and sell on news, eh?

SteveH
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 11:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3058)
Excellent!
Peter A, #3039 - Excellent Part 1 Y2K post. There are numerous posts which I will copy to a Y2K directory in WordPerfect for further review. The posts are creating some outstanding ideas and thought for myself. Propane equipment, I believe, can be found at RV parts dealers. Call first, there is a big one on I5 south of Portland near Wilsonville.
ET
(03/07/1999; 11:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3059)
Cash

Hey Goldfly and Aristotle. Yes, I've had this discussion over at csy2k with a few others. It is an interesting topic. The thread there originally started off as someone wanted to know when to take out all their cash to beat the crowd. It evolved into a discussion of cash in general and what it actually is.

To ascertain what might be the best idea concerning money and y2k, one must define what all forms of money are and how they might be affected by various scenarios. My view is that nearly all cash and credit in today's world is fiat. In other words, they require a functioning banking system to hold any value at all. Fiat is not inherently valuable as say gold, wheat or any other tangible asset. It is a representation of debt. It is stated on it's face as to what it actually is. It has value as a trading medium only if confidence in the system that supports it remains. It has no intrinsic value.

When put into the context of y2k, various scenarios come to mind but the one overriding concern is confidence. How is confidence maintained? Today, confidence is maintained by daily usage and the resulting purchasing power of the underlying fiat. If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets. It will suffer further devaluation if governments attempt to flood the world with more fiat without a performing loan to back it. Neither scenario above will help keep confidence in the purchasing power of fiat. Banks will do their best to instill confidence in customers ability to access fiat but will unlikely be able to instill confidence in it's purchasing power since this is beyond their control.

This is the reason I see no advantage in hoarding great sums of cash as a means for wealth preservation. As you mentioned Goldfly, it may retain some value as a trading medium initially (hence having a month's supply may be beneficial in some circumstances), but it is the least likely form of money to hold purchasing power.

Secondly, the nature of the monetary system will not support such a move to cash. Banks will have to ration cash. Does this imply that cash would be worth more? I don't think so. My checks or dedit cards would have equal purchasing power. As long as banks are open, cash will have the same purchasing power as any other fiat. If for some reason the banks were to close for any length of time, all fiat would become worthless as the system that supports it is no longer intact to facilitate it's use as a trading medium.

I would further contend that it is impossible for banks to go bankrupt in today's monetary system. This is a charade the bankers have foisted on us. Reserve requirements can be dropped to zero thereby making unlimited credit available. Of course, this would not help the purchasing power of cash either. As long as power and telcoms are up, the banks will likely be up, with only the purchasing power of their medium in question.

All in all, I see no advantage in hoarding cash. If the goal is to be able to pay bills, etc., then leaving your money in the bank will be just as useful and more convenient. If the goal is to preserve wealth, it is the worst choice of all. If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed. I would accept your gold or maybe your wheat if I needed it. In the end, the citizens will decide by their actions what fiat will be worth. In any case, I don't see it becoming more valuable than hard assets.

ET
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 11:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3060)
"We Will Always Remember"
Words from a patriotic song.

Most of you remember someone saying "The Challenger Exploded," "The Berlin Wall is down," "They just shot Kennedy." But I imagine not all of you are old enough to have heard what I did at the age of seven when a friend of my father's ran out from listening to the car radio, exclaiming, "The Japs are bombing Pearl Harbor!" That was the end of the world as we knew it, in many ways.

There may be some parallels here. I just read JA's superb post, and it seems that our dependency on computer technology is absolutely awesome. I had thought that a lot of functions could be bypassed at the pull of a handle or the turn of a wrench, but now I wonder.

When World War II hit there were very few synthetics. If the source country for something like rubber, for instance, became occupied, then there just wasn't any. We grew food in "Victory Gardens," huddled behind blackout curtains at night keeping warm in front of fires burning cannel coal. Dad put on winter gear and took shifts atop the town's tallest building, watching for enemy bombers.

Younger fathers went to war and young people everywhere enlisted, many who were under age lying to risk their lives. We had ration books for many foods and for gasoline, even for shoes, if things got worse. I remember on the radio, after a young Ricky Nelson had spilt the ketchup bottle, Harriet lamenting, "That was 18 points a bottle." If I wanted candy, I ate my cereal without sugar and put a teaspoon-full in a jar. Then when I had saved enough, I would boil it in water with vegetable dye to make my own.

So, we may enter a period where supplies are held up in production and delivery, burning wood for heat, hunkering down at night because there is no gasoline to waste going about. Some may stand neighborhood watch for thieves and vandals.

There was a buzz word back in '42, "Mobilization." That will be the key to solving Y2K.

Last week at the local Chamber of Commerce meeting, a subject was the struggling web site's failure to pop up on searches. Apparently the person responsible wasn't handling the problem, so the Chamber brought in some high school students who fixed up everything. (I noticed that one of the first "adult" chores my grandson mastered was the ability at age two to work all the buttons on the VCR).

I've already seen it suggested somewhere that the "Mobilization" to deal with the Y2K bugs could include recruiting computer savvy students to fight the battle against the hoard of enemy rows of abberated code.

Perhaps our salvation will once again be the army of our youth going out to fight the battle of this new World War. The machinery to produce and deliver will not have been bombed out this time, It will just need to be re-manned.

There's a philosophical quip that has passed down Robin's side of the family; "The Bible said it came to pass, it didn't say it came to stay."
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 11:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3061)
AEL, ET
Fantastic posts. What a day this is turning into on The Forum.

AEL, way back, I think during the Cuban Missle Crises, Time Magazine had a photo of a grocer who had made up extra large bags with a band of large letters around the top saying "Hoarder". Wonder what it did to his business?
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 12:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3062)
Steve
You came in at 5.55 and I logged in yesterday at 5.542. (#3004 @ 00:18) Just wondered if you noticed. I'm glad to be agreed with by the Forum chart master, maybe were right!!
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 12:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3063)
Steve
Your scenario in #3057 is the one I believe will most likley prevail. You have laid it out with great logic and perception.

Yet, when I read other more disaster oriented posts I get torn. I keep seeing Tyve in "Fiddler On the Roof" saying "On the one hand, --on the other hand,-- on the other hand---I have no more hands---"

However, I keep coming back to what you depicted as being most probable. Good job!
T. Remital
(03/07/1999; 13:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3064)
MAY THE BEST MAN WIN
I feel that the surprising event of late is the almost unoticed rise in the money supply in the
US. Of all the factors that can make or brake a economy this is one area out of control with
M-3 rising 20 billion just last week...It's like we are in a poker game and the banker is
manufacturing chips under the table .. decreasing the value of the chips on the table///You continualy hear that there is no inflation by the hot shots on wall street...JUST WAIT!!!!
****SI9H--5.025***** [close march 12]
T. Remital
(03/07/1999; 13:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3065)
LOST ---NOT FOUND
Just browsing around ...kitco #245238--GOLD MISSING IN FORT KNOX-- If enough people in
the financial world become suspect and put pressure on the FED by demanding a independent
audit of the supposed 262 million ozs. of gold in fort knox, GATA may find the real motive
for suppressing the price of gold . What are your thoughts on this ?





JA
(03/07/1999; 13:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3066)
*******$5.10****** price of March Silver on March 12th
Michael if this could be considered an addendum to post # 3040.

Richard, Oregon

Thanks, you read directions much better than I.
DxAu
(03/07/1999; 14:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3067)
'Dollarization'in Latin nations
That's the subject of an article in todays (3/7/99) San Jose
Mercury News (CA) which seems a worthwhile read. Sorry, I can't post the article but it might be available at www.mercurycenter.com sooner or later. It discusses the
possiblity of Argentina and perhaps much of Latin America
using the dollar as a defacto official currency. It would
seem to have the benifits of the euo but with the risks of
not being able to control interest rates related to it or
the local government being able to inflate/deflate it at
their whim. It also claims the US has $500 billion currency float with 2/3 of it outside the country. Thus we benefit roughly $20 billion a year in 'seignorage' which sounds pretty nice but that ignores the risk of having a lot of the float returned to us someday for whatever reason. TIA for your thoughts on all of this.
SteveH
(03/07/1999; 15:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3068)
Peter
Thanks. $5.55 was a mere coincidence. Price was more a guess than anything else.

Steve
eulu
(03/07/1999; 16:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3069)
******4.82******
Long time lurker--infrequent poster--seems I learn more by listening than by talking. Lurk daily--thoroughly enjoy the opinions expressed by the "prophets" that most frequently post on this "round table".

IMHO the most devastating event of the last year has to do with commodity depression and its resultant negative impact on inflation. When inflation is kept at bay by reduced prices of essential items such as food and energy, the end result will be devastating when these commodities return to their previous normal levels (whatever that may be) and we all have to pony up to pay "fair" prices. What will fall in value at that time to keep inflation at bay? With current commodity deflation, the full drop has not been passed through to the end user, but invariably, when prices reinflate, the price paid by the end user inflates commensurate with the commodity price increase, creating an overall further increase in price from commodity value to retail. Is inflation at bay???

Another concern is th ebalance of trade deficit. This is constantly referred to in terms of dollars. What about units? Imported goods are being purchased from countries primarily with devalued currencies. Consequently each dollar (US) is buying more units, consequenly the impact of this deficit (reduction in US factory output) is far more devastating than would appear on the surface. US primary employment stimulus today are service jobs, not production jobs. No one will have to beat us in aconflict, just shutdown the flow of critical "units" that we no longer manufacture and we are in trouble. We cannot fireup overnight to bring back home the production of goods that have been allowed to be manufactured overseas so as to give "our" consumers a better price on "units". Guess wherea lot of the money to stimulate the economy and the stockmarket has come from? Low "unit" consumer costs--hey, this even frees up more takehome $ for USG to get their hands on. THIS SCARES THE HELL OUT OF ME!!!!

WHOOPS--TIME TO GET BACK TO LISTENING!
Farfel
(03/07/1999; 17:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3070)
Y2K...Prepare, Prepare, Prepare...OR ELSE, Be Left Behind!
In my heart of hearts, I wish I could cast away my cynicism and believe in the ceaseless linearity of America's good fortunes this past decade. I wish I could join the bullish mania running rampant on Wall Street, safe in the certitude that all is truly well with America. If I could join the Pollyannas, then I would sleep so much better at night.

Yet, I cannot. No matter how hard I try, for reasons unknown to me, everytime I examine the current American condition, I see remarkable blemishes threatening to develop at a moment's notice into suppurating sores.

So, I remain an existentialist with a strong premonition that tomorrow will not be a replication of today, but will confront America with a multitude of new problems the country failed to address these past few decades, instead choosing to sweep them under the rug.

Even if Y2K proves to be a relative "non-event" with respect to America's infrastructure, unfortunately, the Pandora's Box has been opened, computer-phobia has been unleashed, and the "educated" segment of the public is undeniably nervous
There is no conceivable way now in which the fast developing mass anxiety can be placed back inside Pandora's Box. How can it?

If the President and his entire cabinet were to appear on every major TV network and assure everybody that Y2K is a mere trifle, who would believe them? After all, the country's chief executive stared a nation in the eye and lied through his teeth for over half a year?

Who is going to put their complete faith in the local police or military to ensure law and order during a Y2K crisis?
Simply go to a gun store (as I did recently here in Los Angeles)...and be amazed at the lengthy wait (over ONE hour) to buy guns, not to mention the unavailability of the most popular models.

Who will put their faith in the inviolability of America's US Dollar? After more than a year of witnessing one fiat currency collapse after another, who is not growing wary of paper money? Just head to your local coin dealer and discover his frustration and anger over his inability to secure various gold and silver coins from the US Mint. Coin rationing may allow gold/silver shorting speculators off the hook for now...but it's ultimate result will be to increase populist fears exponentially, thereby ensuring a PM coin BUY panic at some point in the future. If Americans are blocked in their attempts to buy Eagles or Maple Leafs, they will simply create a Black Market in those items...or else turn to Pandas, Krugerands, Koalas, Philharmonics, or whatever other hard currency is available. The government can only succeed in frustrating the public's appetites, but it cannot shut them down.

Try and buy electric generators or special packaged survivalist foods...there is a shortage of everything and the shortage itself is a Y2K crisis as it is tangible evidence of a national loss of confidence.

Y2K is shaping up to become America's equivalent of medieval Europe's Black Death. At that time, the very idea that a particular individual might be afflicted with the sickness caused people to ostracize the individual and take proper precautions against contamination. In other words, it did not really matter whether or not the person actually had the plague; only the POSSIBILITY that such a person was infected caused mass hysteria. Analogously, it is simply the POSSIBILITY of Y2K disruptions that are throwing an entire globe into a frenzy.

The first true test of Y2K problems is only six months away. On September 9, 1999, various computers will read that date as a message to shut down. Since embedded systems cannot be reprogrammed but must be replaced...since the interconnectivity of computer systems facilitates corruption from "sick" computers to "healthy" computers...then it seems hard to believe there will not be any notable problems.

So, for those who continue to believe that the Y2K problem is still so far away, their education is still incomplete.

What Y2K problem will surface that no one can foresee? What spontaneous development will trigger a panic? Again, I think it will actually have nothing to do with computers; rather, it will be some disaster related to the ANTICIPATION of Y2K problems. If I were to hazard a guess, I would suggest it might well be a domestic stock or bond market crash. Such an event would thoroughly undermine Americans' belief that their government has matters under control...and the contagion of doubt would metastasize into all other aspects of daily life.
Gandalf the White
(03/07/1999; 17:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3071)
Welcome "eulu"
Welcome and thanks for the slant on commodities! Looks as if you have the lowest SI9H quess so far. Even beat my low number.
<;-)
OverHerd
(03/07/1999; 18:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3072)
Hello
I have decided to post today for roll call purposes and since I never did properly introduce myself. I still haven't had a chance to read all of the posts from the past week. I am also not well educated on economic subjects so it takes awhile for some of the topics discussed to sink in.
I am a 35-year-old aircraft mechanic with a major US airline. I first became interested in precious metals after reading the book The Great Reckoning and realizing that I needed to start taking charge of my life. Things weren't going bad but always had this nagging feeling that there was more to life than I had previously assumed. I started calling around for coin prices when I reached CPM, I thought I was calling a local Minneapolis number so I was surprised that I had reached Denver, immediately I knew that my search had ended. It was something that can't be explained logically, just a gut feeling, but after dealing with Mike since '93 I know I made the right choice. We worked out a strategy that best suited my financial situation. Now when I sit down with my accumulated wealth I front of me, as I do occasionally, I get an eerie sense of calm.
I should also clarify my screen name, for I am not a rancher, it is more of an ideal that I strive to think and act on a higher level than I presently occupy.
Y2K- I stared planning about a year ago because I thought this was something that needed my attention and I believe the recent reports are indicating that it was a good move, but who knows? I have recently purchased an RV to live in, not just for Y2K, being in the aviation industry you sometimes get a chance to see the country- whether you wanted to or not. It is self-contained and can go a little while with out external services. If anybody's interested tl.com is a good place to look, it provided me with some good information. I have some food stored, prices at the market have made it easy enough for anyone to prepare.
One thing I would like to mention, I saw on CNN Headline news, they had a piece called the week in review. Part of that stated that the congressional committee said that Y2K would merely be a bump in the road, how they came to this conclusion I have no idea, it couldn't be further from the truth, but that may be why most people don't worry about it (Y2K). Sorry for being so long winded with so much unimportant information.
April gold seems to be at the breakout point that could bring it to 316 in the near term. At least that's my interpretation of the charts.
PS Stranger I use Prodigy here in Atlanta and it's worked out well for me.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 19:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3073)
Thanks for the well thought out cash posts, guys.
I need to take a longer moment to absorb all of the good info. I wanted to pause long enough to pass this along, since it is related to our Y2K discussions.
SEC Chairman Levitt was asked to rate America's corporate preparedness for Y2K on a scale of 1-10, with one being the best and ten being "head for the hills!" Levitt responded by picking one.

Can you say, "COMPLETE denial"? I knew that you could. I mean, C'mon! He could have been savvy enough to choose a three at least. Clearly, the battle plan is to discourage ANY element of individual preparation. In fact he went so far as to say so. As near as I can quote him, he said in regard to reports he's heard of people building supplies of food and water, "it could feed on itself and create a greater danger than the problem itself."

Wait a minute...WHAT problem? I thought he just said we were at a One rating? Something doesn't compute. Could it be the computers after 2000? But seriously, doesn't this start to reek of "Animal Farm"? Together with Peter's good historical account of large shopping bags being labeled "HOARDER".
What would they have had to say about this country's pioneers? Every bit of energy they had went toward accumulating supplies and food to ensure their survival through the next winter, drought, or whatever the hardship du jour was.

What is evil about taking control and responsibility for your own well being? They seem to prefer that we remain stupid and helplessly dependent upon the Govt for all that we have. This nation was argueably at its best in 1776 when it sat at the feet of the Wright Brothers' flight instructor. (isn't that right, Peter?) Well, I say the theory still holds today. A man is capable of identifying what is in his best interest, and our Constitution guarantees him the power to pursue it. Choosing to hold your monetary savings in gold is the first and simplest step in that right direction. (OverHerd, I like the way you think. Thanks for answering the roll call!) ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 20:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3074)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part II
My conclusion regarding cash for Y2K is to try not to need to buy anything. AEL really laid it out this morning on this. I think the only thing that most people cannot avoid having to buy is gasoline. Other than that, the composite knowledge circulating around these days should enable anyone to be fully supplied. A major portion of what most people spend money on, day to day, out of wallet, is things one doesn't have to have or do. Beyond that, the breakdown of bank or credit card companies is not going to prevent utilities, landlords, or mortgage holders from receiving checks. If they wish to demand cash, they will be deterred by the necessary armored car scenario. In addition, most receipt points aren't local these days. One idea is to pay out the first three months of one's mortgage in time to get a hard copy receipt. Besides the precaution of proof, it covers the possibility of a temporary income crash.

One thing I don't see mentioned is charge accounts. One might consider opening those with hardware stores and local lumber yards. Unlike the "Big Box" outfits, they have in-house accounts, and you don't have to be in business to have one.

Regarding the electronic transfer of funds, it could be disastrous to pay anything that way during Y2K. The payment could be debited to your account yet not be on record as having been received by the payee! I wouldn't pay anything that didn't result in a canceled check or a receipt in hand!! The "biggest lie" joke of next year will probably be, "The payment is in the e-mail." All sorts of people might try a financial version of, "The dog ate my homework."

It is a relief to see the stockpiling of cash being de-emphasized. One threat that I've been concerned with is that the criminal element will perceive anyone prepared for Y2K as holding large quantities of cash or coin. Even if you didn't have it, you might not be believed and could be in more danger than if you had it to hand over.

This brings up the subject of security. Many stories have been written by Robert Heinlein and others regarding post-apocalypse survival. The common theme is people forming up in groups and posting a sign saying, "Stop where you are and hail the house." The problem with hiding out in the middle of nowhere is that, if you can't be seen, neither can an attacker. When hurricanes have threatened eastern beach communities, people have held parties in the safer houses, moving to higher ground as the tide rose. (Now-a-days the government probably forcefully evacuates everyone. Can't you just envision being dragged out of your bolt-hole for your own protection from outlaw bands?). Anyhow, it would seem ideal for people to celebrate New Year's Eve grouped together in the best environment they can jointly come up with.

My feelings on gold for barter are that if things were so bad that you needed that function, it would be too dangerous to expose the fact that you had any. Remember, the vulnerability of hard asset money is what created banks in the first place. Gold, as an investment or storage of wealth, is another matter entirely. If I had any liquid equity, I would have every bit of it in bullion and coin, and I would safely store it. I'd rather have my gold temporarily out of reach in a safety deposit box, than permanently out of reach in the hands of a crook. I know there is private storage also, but is that truly safe in a collapse? Confiscation doesn't appear to me to be a threat, because there are too many people these days owning things. The officials wouldn't have enough tax-payers left to cover their salaries!
The big unknown is the amount of lost earnings that will be sustained by individuals and corporations due to down time. The means of production will remain intact, but the pivotal question is, who will own what when the dust settles?

The operative four letter word here is FEMA! Fiat action and regulation can and will be enacted to keep things running. In theory, if everyone had to produce and deliver now and get paid their free market exchange later; no one would starve or freeze. Not much fun, but it beats death and destruction. Opportunities for power play will be created by the interplay of debt, default, foreclosure and repossession. A lot will depend on how these affect the economic landscape.

On the personal level, the major item at risk is homes. Most are heavily mortgaged. The most depressing part in Nick Guardio's current newsletter is his statement that most home mortgages have a clause requiring payment-in-full on demand which takes affect if the appraisal value falls below the outstanding loan balance. The specter of banker-landlords receiving their tribute from a nation of tenants is truly gruesome. However the last time there was a great depression, a far smaller amount of the population were home owners. (I believe the current figure is 66%.) Just as Florida and one other state currently allow unlimited home equity to survive bankruptcy, it's not unthinkable that in a financial meltdown there might be a moratorium on principle residence mortgages. Which is the larger voting block � the home owners of the land or the stockholders of the lending institutions?

Tomorrow in part III, I'll try to conjure up a picture of the new economic world order.

Peter A.
ET
(03/07/1999; 20:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3075)
Aristotle

You wrote in part;

'What is evil about taking control and responsibility for your own well being? They seem to prefer that
we remain stupid and helplessly dependent upon the Govt for all that we have'.

This is the name of game, isn't it?

As you and others have noted, there is a tremendous disconnect between what we know the facts to be and what we are being told to do about it. I've suspected for the last couple of years that the last people that are going to tell you the truth about y2k will be the governments. They have absolutely nothing to gain and absolutely everything to lose. Farfel is correct in his assessment. The herd is turning. This is an exciting time to be alive.

ET
Ray Patten
(03/07/1999; 20:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3076)
Y2K updates:
Chevron Oil has admitted it won't fix all of its systems in time and that "Year 2000 business interruptions could prevent it from making and delivering refined products and producing oil and gas."

I have asked the company for a copy of their annual report so I can read all the details myself. The SEC is forcing all public companies to disclose to shareholders their Y2K preparedness.

Also, on the national news on Friday evening, it was reported that Coke-a-Cola plans on buying extra sugar toward the end of the year in case there are disruptions in world transportation next year.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 20:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3077)
Ray Patten
That is *pivotal* data about Chevron. One small piece of truth about Y2K, one giant step towards the rest of it.

The cat is out of the bag!!!
SteveH
(03/07/1999; 20:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3078)
Mike is going to have a tough contest to judge...
I am awed.


April gold moving up in overseas trading as we speak. Now $289.60, asking $289.80. $291 by morning anyone?

backlash
(03/07/1999; 21:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3079)
What to do AFTER
Just a little thing found while reading and keeping Y2K in the back of my mind and supplied for the amusement of all:

From Text:Money Daily No permission requested.

ARMAGEDDON! That seems to be cunsulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas's view of 2000. Challenger describes the next 100 years as "the new technology paralyzed millennium" (Y2K, of course) and takes a crack at predicting which occupations will be in heavy demand. Here are their picks (and the reason): Bartering Agents (shortage of cash), Private Security Officers (breakdown of local infrastructure, widespread panic), Survivalist Consultants (no food,no supplies, civil unrest), Y2K Realtors (a mass exodus from paralyzed cities will flood the countryside, and of course all the excapees will need relocation help), Y2K Therapists (people will need help coping with the "frustration and chaos" from the meltdown) and , last but not least, "Alternative Power Providers" (gotta cook the food that your Survivalist Consultant finds you.) Sorry, no advice about how to prepare for any of these lucrative careers.

Is/Was this a somewhat tongue-in-cheek joke? bl
backlash
(03/07/1999; 21:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3080)
Y2K Post Submission *****Mar.12 Silver - 5.10******
Ah-h-h-h-h - - The broth is thick and smooth, the meat content tender, and the spices just right. Gather round ye Knights of this table round for good helpings for all and to be shared with many. The table is set with a hardy, succulent Y2K stew steaming hot for those who wish to take their fill with a bit of knowledge. Please join with me.

Much has been shared at this table regarding Y2K, its implications, possibilities, and ramifications as applied to financial, economic, physical, and psychological consequences as the year 2000 approaches. Some of the prognostications see the event as being rather benign while others see catastrophe. As I approach a seventh decade of gaining knowledge, wisdom (hopefully), and experience on this planet, the conclusion I reach is this: Experience over time shows that the actuality of what occurs will be at neither extreme. Nick G. and Gary North serve well inasmuch as they are certainly waving the red flags and bringing much needed attention to the situation in a public way. However, that is just exactly what will keep things from being as bad as they would purport them to be.

Therefore, I am indeed making Y2K preparations. Not quite to the total extreme of moving to the hills and building a fortress, but definitely looking toward a possibility of a 'mini' cultural breakdown of our society as we know it. This mini breakdown would not be total anarchy, but rather a moderate level of marshal law imposition by the various levels of government in the US. This would likely apply to the bulk of the free nations of the world today. Specifically, Canada, most of Europe, Australia, England and a few others fall into this group. The rest of the countries are already, to one degree or another, in a state of marshal law, anarchy, or just pure chaos with no one in true control. I really don't know where Russia falls in the classification. In those cases, the Y2K problem will have little effect other than to disrupt aid (in its many forms) from the 'free' countries.

The more 'free' the country, the greater the possibility for social breakdown. Why? Because those are precisely the people are accustomed to having virtually unlimited freedoms and have not had to pay a price (in their memory span) to have an 'ownership' of those freedoms. This is where the panic will appear (if it does). Again, why? Many reasons. A foremost is that those who had to sacrifice much through world wars, depressions, famines and the like no longer are among us or are no longer the ones leading those who follow. Therefore, those who 'know' are no longer at the helm.

My preparations for Y2K began long before computers were even being used for much of anything. (Not that I realized it at the time.) Boy Scouting taught many useful skills that I now find very few know. First Aid, swimming, how to find North (day or night), fishing, hiking, plants (edible & poisonous), and so many more skills as well as discipline, morality, and service to their fellow man were cornerstones learned in Scouting. Also my father taught me to hunt. Yes, this includes using and understanding a firearm. But more importantly, he taught me the importance of compassion in the process of acquiring food in this manner. I don't sport hunt, I eat what I harvest in the field. Yes I know exactly what it feels like to take the life of an animal. It is not something everyone is able to do, but neither is it as barbaric as some would lead us to believe. Unless you are a vegetarian, you are eating food that someone had to kill. (Think about it).

Back to the subject: The second level of preparations for Y2K again were well before anyone had the foggiest notion of Y2K. In high school, I learned several trade skills that will serve me well after the Y2K shakeout occurs. Several other skills have been added over the years to the point that I have a unique bag of abilities to draw from. I can weld, do electrical wiring, install plumbing, pour and finish concrete, repair and/or rebuild vehicles (cars & pickups), and do virtually every odd job needed around the house. Oh yes, and cook well enough to survive.

The above Y2K preparations are absolutely impossible to achieve between now and the time they will potentially be needed. So, may I suggest before starting to stock up on money or gold:

Step #1. FIND SOMEONE(S) who have these skills/abilities and become close friends (not the artificial type of friend) if possible. Time is short and unfortunately it takes time to make this kind of friend if you are not already well down the road. As an alternative, gather a group of current friends and parcel out skills to be learned according to their abilities. START NOW!

Step #2. Lay back a reasonable supply of medicines, food, and a WAY TO PURIFY WATER! Storage of some water is a great idea, but if this thing stretches out very long, it will not be enough. Water may be available that is of unknown quality. You have it, but can't use it. Toilet paper and paper towels you really can get by without. Does anyone remember the days of cloth diapers that one washed and reused? Wash cloths and towels will get you through if you remember to stock up some soap, too.

Step #3. Durable, warm clothes is next on the list. This includes footwear and outerwear. Go to any outdoors type store like REI and you can find what you need. In lieu of access to such a store, get hiking boots/shoes, warm loose coats that can be layered with sweaters, and quality work type clothes.

Step #4. If power is a major concern, buy a generator. P.S. they are going fast and have waiting lists. If you don't have the money, pool together with others with the same concern and get at least a 5KW unit. Smaller ones are about useless.

Step #5. Alternate heat source for those in cold climates. This one can be a problem because too many people will misuse or misapply their 'alternate heat source' and wind up killing more people in fires than any other event short of war. In this area, please be very careful and know exactly how to use the device.


Now it is time to start looking at the money or gold or whatever else floats your boat.

Step #6. Put aside, in the local currency, three months worth of smaller denomination bills for use to buy essentials you don't have. Forget about the mortgage, car payment, and charge card bills when figuring out how much you need. Nobody is going to come get them for quite a while if this scenario occurs. I can't see hoarding more than six months worth at a maximum. If this thing is still going at that time the currency most likely will be useless anyway.

Step #7. Now you have the bare necessities covered. If you have any money left (and many will not) buy gold coins. They are of known content and most people can figure out what their approximate value is in their particular situation at that time.


This has now covered what 90% of the people can actually do and accomplish. The rest are those who have wealth (however nominal) that they can stash away. Call Mike and he can best help you from this point forward.


Other posts have so eloquently gone into the details of almost all of the the steps above and usually well beyond. The steps herein really are for the lurkers that don't have a clue where to start and other starters on the Y2K preparations. And particularly for those with limited financial capabilities. Each step, of course, has much more within it. Please refer to other posts.

Hopefully everyone has noticed that nothing has been mentioned about horrible word, GUNS! However, it should now be mentioned to complete the stew. Sadly it is the slightly bitter herb that adds a bit of a tang to the dish. If you do not own a gun and do not feel comfortable with one, DON'T GET ONE! For those who want one, get training from a certified trainer before purchasing anything. IMHO there is not much worse than someone that has a firearm and is scared of it or doesn't know how to use it properly. Want a gun? Then learn about it and respect it. Go to Step #1 and apply it here if there are any doubts in your mind.

Thank you fellow Knights of the Table Round for you indulgence. This long piece was something that has long been on my mind that I felt needed to be shared. If some part of it is of value, use it wisely and discard the rest. Time has been kind to me and it is now close to the time of passing the shield, helmet, armor, and sword to those younger Knights.

Best Wishes, bl
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 21:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3081)
*****$4.75***** Price of Silverrrrrrrrr!
I base my price on happenings this past week regarding the NEW stock market high, the announcement by Coke that they are stockpiling, the banana war with Europe and the new import tax threatened by the US. (I didn't catch the whole story on this banana/tax deal but it sounded as though Europe might get the short end of the stick.) All positives for the market and negatives for the heavy metals. But, who knows!!

Then. . . . My biggest surprise in economics and finance. . . . .
The lack luster performance of the Euro since day one. Europe seems to have rolled over, for the time being, when I thought they come out of the gate with a bang. Their competitor (US) has a tough act to follow and they've got their work cut out for the next several years.
The Stranger
(03/07/1999; 21:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3082)
OverHerd and eulu
I loved both of your posts. What a breath of fresh air. I hope to hear a lot more of your thinking.
Peter Asher
(03/07/1999; 21:51:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3083)
Just out
http://nt.excite.com/news/u/990307/13/tech-science-y2k

Read this item!!
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 21:51:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3084)
Y2K Preparation -- Global Perspective

The failing infrastructure and institutions of the United States,and the lack of adequate spending and planning to correct the existing deficiencies has led me over the past several years to adopt a simpler lifestyle and to prepare to live a self-sufficient existence in a rural environment for an extended time, should general social conditions warrant.

Among the factors that cold lead to social breakdown are the
vulnerability of modern agriculture to long-term crop failure due to overuse of chemicals, depleting the soil's capacity to produce or survive and recover from severe weather conditions ; and overspecialization in a few seed types, highly at risk of being wiped out by disease. Another factor: There is the possibility of greatly increased and widespread incidence of infectious diseases
which antibiotics will not be able to control, in the United
States as well as poorer countries.

Whatever the effects of Y2K turn out to be, they should be
considered in the context of the existing trends described. Some specific preparations seem to be called for that would provide short-term self-sufficiency. Prudent preparations vary greatly according to community, climate, location, utility companies and so on. I will not detail my personal preparations here, as space is limited: I prefer to use it to express my concerns as to the overall effect Y2K may have on us all and which may prove to be quite profound. Before turning to that, I will add that among my personal preparations I have included some gold, silver and
silver coins, and several currencies (some in cash).

Will the cumulative effect of many isolated computer-related
failures throughout the world over the course of the year 2000 bring about a global recession? I have collected a few comments from others relating to this question:


"I've got my finger on the trigger. If I don't see any specifics ( on fixing the Y2K bug ) from the G8 by the middle of June, I'll sadly be raising the odds of a severe global recession from 60 percent to 100 percent."

Dr. Ed Yardeni, Chief Economist, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.

"This could have a huge impact on international trade, foreign investment, the global economy and even
national security�these countries are only now becoming aware of the Year 2000 problems and they lack the resources to fully address it."

William E. Kennard , Federal Communications Commission Chairman

"It always amazes me how the experts who talk on Y2k are always forwarding their perspective from their own countries standpoint... 99% of these experts are from the US, Canada,UK, Australia. All the countries who are at the top of the remediation list. Their perspectives
seem to be very narrow ...in this day and age where we have a global information highway I forsee many breakdowns. Not because of failures within these remediated countries, but from the domino effect of cascading failures in 70+% of the rest of the world. "

(Source Unknown)

I read that 54% of the world's natural gas is supplied from one plant in Russia. I haven't verified it. The question of the cumulative effect of isolated failures on a global world now dependent on technology will be answered over the course of next year. In the process, there may be much volatility in currencies, in the markets. It seems prudent to have some assets in gold.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 21:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3085)
Aristotle, 03/07 #3051
You said: "The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before." I think this may be an understatement, at best. Think about this, from now to the end on the year many people and companies (Coke I heard on Friday) will be 'stockpiling'. The demand on goods will be like never before. Demands on many manufacturing areas will be huge. Then, sometime after the first of the year, most everyone who stockpiled will be using their unused goods. Demands will crash and the economy will turn down until demand is re-established ('rebound').

This of course assumes Y2K had little or no effect and if it DID have a dramatic effect, manufacturing will still have problems. Either way, the very act of 'stockpiling' WILL create new challenges.
Richard, Oregon
(03/07/1999; 22:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3086)
Y2K
Preparing for Y2K problems and why, how, gold?,

Y2K preparations ARE necessary for prudent people. It's no different than preparing for a winter storm and protecting what wealth you have. Common sense. What and how much you stockpile depends on your needs and circumstances and, to a greater degree, YOUR beliefs! Any preparedness is "getting back to basics" which is also what the realization of gold ownership is anyhow. A natural for most everyone here at the round table.

Threats to goods and services are recognizable to most. Believing this, we've chosen to build on what we already have from a deliberate attempt years ago to be 'out of the city' and afford ourselves with some level of independence.

Basic immediate needs are food, water, shelter, warmth, and clothing . . . . .
We'll have a calf in the pasture and maybe a hog for the summer. We'll confirm our inventory of wheat for the mill and stock-up on basic dry goods. Water supply could be interrupted, so we'll set aside some store bought stuff, just in case. (We have a distiller, so we could recycle what nature already provides to this beautiful land.) The roof doesn't leak so we're ok there. Heating with wood, 22 years, continues to endow us with the 'warmth and comfort' only six to eight cords and a stove can afford. The inventory will be set this summer! Clothing supplies will be audited also. Icing on the cake will be a couple of extra cans of gasoline for the generator. This would provide an extra level of comfort, should our power guys black us out for a period of time. (Power for the freezer or radio/tv has not been decided and may prove to be a no-brain-er at the time.) A special thought when determining what to stock will be "Would we use this anyhow?'. If no is the answer, we won't buy it. Be prepared! Must not forget our critters. Medical needs should be addressed along with our elderly mother.

And since we know better . . . . .
A stash of fiat may prove worthy, but just in case, tenths and quarters will do the trick. Pre-64 silvers could be worth their weight in gold to local merchants, since most don't know one end of an eagle from the other. We own gold! We practice 'safe wealth', no unprotected wealth for us.

Potential importance . . . . .
Pre-1933 $20 gold pieces will prove invaluable when/if our method of swapping dollars for goods and services collapses. Our world is highly dependant on paper as well as electronic money. Y2K promises to touch one or both. A run on paper seems inevitable even if Y2K doesn't touch the banks. With paper short AND digital dollars inoperable, gold, and only gold, will be king. What's your bet nothing happens? If your reasoning is like ours, you're ready for the next winter storm and you've protected what you've slaved to save.

Got Safe Wealth!
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 22:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3087)
Richard...demand for goods
I'm glad to hear you describe my warning as an understatement. I do not want to be type-cast as a doom-and-gloomer, and certainly don't feel that I'm anywhere close. I am far too calm for all that. I do feel the pinch of knowing that I cannot row this boat alone, however, and would be heartened to see a great many others make a move toward social independence. It is with THESE people wherein our hope for a bright future lies. When the going gets tough, it is such people that become leaders of men...leading by example, not by dominion.

Food for thought on this topic you've agreed with. The highly revered Michael Dell of Dell Computers said in regard to Y2K (paraphrased) "If you want a computer, you had better get one now, because there are no guarantees that we'll be able to produce them next year." Wow! That is a wake-up call to all the would-be internet-stock millionaires. ---Aristotle
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3088)
1999 Economic Surprises *******5.37******
The continuing expansion of the United States' economy, enhanced by consumer spending, has surprised many, prompting a concern over inflation and a rise in 30 Year Treasuries. I suggest this expansion, which has supported the dollar, is the most surprising economic news so far in 1999.

Nevertheless,we should keep in mind that earnings for the majority of companies have been declining for about a year. Long-term rates had begin to rise last August. Subsequent successive rate cuts by the Fed seem to have extended what might be called a "virtual" or bubble expansion, which seems to be creating more supply than is warranted.

Looking ahead, a rapid decline in the stock indices may prove surprising to a large number of stockholders, even though most stocks have not been increasing in value for quite some time.

Finally, a rise in the price of gold, oil and commodities over the course of 1999 also is not expected by most. However, a shift of investment to such real assets seems likely.
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3089)
1999 Economic Surprises *******5.33******
The continuing expansion of the United States' economy, enhanced by consumer spending, has surprised many, prompting a concern over inflation and a rise in 30 Year Treasuries. I suggest this expansion, which has supported the dollar, is the most surprising economic news so far in 1999.

Nevertheless,we should keep in mind that earnings for the majority of companies have been declining for about a year. Long-term rates had begin to rise last August. Subsequent successive rate cuts by the Fed seem to have extended what might be called a "virtual" or bubble expansion, which seems to be creating more supply than is warranted.

Looking ahead, a rapid decline in the stock indices may prove surprising to a large number of stockholders, even though most stocks have not been increasing in value for quite some time.

Finally, a rise in the price of gold, oil and commodities over the course of 1999 also is not expected by most. However, a shift of investment to such real assets seems likely.
pa kua
(03/07/1999; 22:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3090)
Apology- unintended double post (First: ***5.37***OK)
Waited and 'thought post not taken.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 23:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3091)
The Fed's proposed banking rules for Know Your Customer
The Senate killed it on Friday by an 88-0 vote. Hadn't seen anyone mention this, but I know it was on the minds of many.
Aristotle
(03/07/1999; 23:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3092)
Huh? Gold is rising on the Austalian/Hong Kong shift??
The last time I noticed such a freak occurrance, gold moved up over $10 in just a couple of days. Will history repeat?
Gandalf the White
(03/07/1999; 23:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3093)
IS this the spark that Au needs ?
A bearish key reversal on the NIKKEI index today in Japan.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 00:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3094)
Senate Hears Glum World Y2K Forecast
Washington-March 5-FWN
In one recent study of 72 nations, only five reported year 2000 upgrades of their electrical systems, six have completed work on their banking systems, eight have upgraded their telecommunications nets and four report air travel system upgrades. It is difficult to gauge the actual extent of year 2000 readiness, since many countries consider it a national security issue and refuse to share full information with the United States.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that there will be Y2K-related failures in every corner of the globe, some of which could prove harmful to U.S. interests," State Department Inspector-General Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers said today.

"It's almost like pulling on a ball of yarn," said James Woodward, whose company, Cap Gemini, handles year 2000 upgrades. "Companies start out thinking it's a simple technological problem, but the more they learn, the more alarmed they get."

As they attempt to increase public awareness of year 2000 risks, government officials must walk a fine line-- informing without alarming. A recent study found that businesses that sell bulk food, guns and emergency supplies like power generators have seen sharp increases in sales as the millennium approaches.

On the other side of the spectrum are countries that do not seem to be taking the problem seriously enough.
The State Department found countries from Europe to Africa to the Middle East that have not begun any major year 2000 upgrades. One European country, for example, established a year 2000 task force that did not hold its first meeting until this January. Many Arab-world countries believe they are not at risk because their computers follow the Muslim calendar, but the State Department reported that contact with Western-calendar computers could affect everything from oil exports to critical water desalination problems.

The State Department is advising citizens not to stockpile food or make a run on the banks for extra cash before the New Year. But it has issued an advisory for U.S. travelers in countries that may experience more severe Y2K problems.
Among other things, it warns that basic systems like utilities, transportation and health care may not be available and advises travelers to "consult with their insurance companies to ascertain that policies cover Y2K- related problems."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 02:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3095)
Round Table Roll Call
It occurred to me that some of our knights might only have posting access on a Monday-Friday basis, so in an effort to include them in the welcome to step forward and be recognized (a simple 'Hello' will suffice for this purpose, but if they get carried away, all the better!) I'd like to extend my previous invitation to include Monday also (or whatever day they happen to see the Call for Roll. ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 05:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3096)
April gold now...
$290!
USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 08:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3097)
Today's Gold Market Report....Challenging the top of range
MARKET UPDATE (3/8/99): Gold began the week on a strong note this morning
breaking out of its recent range in Europe. Reuters reports that "buying on the part of one
U.S. bank boosted prices. One trader was quoted as saying that "one of the American
houses has been buying in substantial amounts. It looks to me like a mine buyback." All
eyes will be on the $292 figure as that has acted as a ceiling in the gold market. The dollar
was also down in early trading contributing to the positive psychology for gold.

There wasn't much in the way of news this morning so it will be short report today. Short
covering has become an important aspect of this gold market and we will be watching for
mining companies, hedge funds, et al to cover more short positions as the strong worldwide
physical demand to hedge Y2K and potential dollar problems weighs heavily on investor
psychology. That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting develops. Have a
good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.

TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 08:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3098)
A wealth of insight into oil
"WHAT is the point of producing more oil and selling it for an unguaranteed
paper currency?" Abdurrahman Salim Atiqi, Kuwait's one-time oil minister--1973

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_ld5338.html
http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_sf1235.html
AEL
(03/08/1999; 09:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3099)
The State of the Herd

.... is surprisingly advanced:

March 3, 1999

Public Opinion on the Y2K Problem

By Frank Newport

Although a special report issued today by a Senate subcommittee on the Year
2000 Technology Problem suggested that the U.S. is not going to face
catastrophic problems at the end of the year, Gallup polling indicates that
many Americans are personally concerned and plan on taking specific actions
to protect themselves against the impact of possible Y2K issues. . . .

The American public, when asked about its confidence that a number of
different governments will have the problem fixed by the end of the century,
has most confidence in their state government. Seventy three percent of those
polled in a special USA Today/National Science Foundation poll conducted in
December said that their state government will have their systems fixed by
the year 2000. A slightly lower number, 68%, have confidence that their local
government and the U.S. government will have their systems fixed. Americans
have much lower confidence that governments outside of the U.S. will have the
problem fixed. Only 48% say they are confident that the industrialized
countries around the world will not be plagued by Y2K problems, and a very
low 18% say as much for the less developed countries. These perceptions are
significant, as some observers have pointed out the potential dangers if
countries with nuclear power plants or nuclear weapons lose control of them
due to Y2K issues.

The Senate report also highlighted the potential problems associated with
various industry segments across the country. The report highlighted the
health care industry as one with a particularly high potential for
significant problems, but only a relatively small number of Americans �33%-
say that they think it likely that hospital equipment and services will fail,
putting patients at risk.

Concern with banks is much higher, with 63% of Americans saying they think it
likely that banking and accounting systems will fail. After banks, Americans
are most concerned about air traffic controls systems (46% say they think it
is likely that these will fail, putting air traffic in jeopardy), food and
retail distribution systems (37% think these will fail), and "911" systems
(36% say these won't work).

Will Americans themselves be taking special precautions on or about January
1, 2000? Many will. When asked in the December poll about a series of
possible precautions they could be taking, 65% of Americans said they would
be obtaining special confirmation or documentation of bank accounts and other
financial records before the end of the year. Forty-seven percent said they
would avoid traveling on airplanes on or around January 1, and 31% said they
intended to withdraw and set aside a large amount of cash. Smaller numbers
said they would stockpile food and water, buy a generator or wood stove, or
withdraw all of their money from the bank.

If problems do occur, Americans feel that they are likely to last weeks if
not months, rather than days. Sixty eight percent said that such problems
would be likely to last for several weeks to a year, while only 15% said they
would last only a few days. Only 11% said, on the other hand, that they would
last for more than a year.

USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 09:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3100)
To All Goldmesters and Contestants from Far and Wide....
We enter the last day of the contest and "Oh what a contest it's been!" How am I supposed to pick a winner? A near impossible task.

The contest will be complete by the stroke of midnight tonight, so let's make this the final call to contest.

I would to like to remind all posters that on the silver price prediction, it must appear in the subject box surrounded by stars********. I wouldn't want somebody to get the right price and then have their prediction scrapped due to a rules formality. "T. Remittal" is one that needs to repost with his silver price in the subject box. If you got the right price and it wasn't in the subject box then a competitor could rightly say the rules were broken and it should be disqualified.

Those who do not know the subject matter and the rules for the contest can re-read USAGOLD message number 3017 for March 6, 1999.

Good luck, and may the best post win.
turbohawg
(03/08/1999; 09:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3101)
The nomad approach
It appears from reading through other's preparations that most or all are working Y2K plans into the life they already have rather than making major changes. That seems rational and in that regard my plans are no different. In fact, my plans are not Y2K specific but geared to dealing with the economic uncertainty on the horizon, and they should have me as prepared as possible if Y2K turns out to be more than I expect.

From what I gather, I'm probably the youngster of this group (33) so it stands to reason that some of my preps would be different because I'm at a different stage of life. My priority is to keep it simple. Hence, my objectives can be summed up in 2 words: mobility and liquidity.

Mobility: Economic strife may require moving to find opportunity. Therefore, I want to be in a position to pick up and go if I want to, meaning no anchors such as a house and mortgage, immediate family, or debt. No big deal ... my life is already centered around the freedom to pursue my passions.

Another aspect to consider is the prospect of domestic violence or a foreign adversary or terrorist group taking advantage of trouble in this country to launch some kind of attack that might make certain areas unliveable. I don't want to be bunkered down.

Given that my job has had me travelling a lot over the last several years, I know the country well and have friends, contacts, and potential contacts in many areas. Learning another language is something I'm trying to motivate myself to do as well (with limited success so far).

Liquidity: With the banking system at risk due to the financial bubble that already exists, I hope to be independent from it regardless of any Y2K problems that might crop it. I've already been converting from one broad category of assets to another. I'll not go into detail but everyone here probably understands. That means more than just having confidence that I can hold what I have in my hand tomorrow but also that I have the ability to move it somewhere else if necessary. I don't want to go too fast with this conversion, however, because betting on the market volatility is just too much fun.

Boning up on self protection measures fits into the picture too.

This approach has its drawbacks. If the worst happens and food becomes really expensive, I'm going to have no stockpile to lean on. Those of you who do will not only have something to eat but a form of currency. I'm considering a small investment in an isolated area near family where I could raise a little food but will wait to see what happens first.

On the flip side of all this, if Y2K comes and power goes down and people are out in the streets, firing up the grills and tapping the kegs, it could turn into one hell of a party !!!

T. Remital
(03/08/1999; 09:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3102)
******march silver 5.025*****
Sorry mike.I was shoveling snow instead of reading rules.
backlash
(03/08/1999; 11:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3103)
Party Time

Turbohawg -

Great idea! Leave it to the younger generation to see the bright side of things. You have made me re-evaluate the storeroom. A keg or two and a bottle or so would make fine provisions. Mind if I join the party?

bl
beesting
(03/08/1999; 11:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3104)
T.Remital #3065 Peter Asher#3060
Mr.T if I may call you that,the very same subject was discussed(was there any Gold at Fort Knox)here about 4 months ago.Findings seemed inconclusive!However since that time I did find out what government agency takes responsibility for the safe guarding of Gold at Ft.Knox**The U.S.Mint**check it out:
http://www.usmint.gov/facts/facts.cfm
Scroll down to mission and be as surprised as I was.

Peter'since you shared the horror of a war starting,I thought I'd share this. When I was 6 I got special permission to go to my friend Harry's house after school.Harry and I just started to play 1on 1 softball when his mother came running out of the house tears streaming down her cheeks.Harry THE WAR'S OVER(WW2)!Harry's mom grabbed harry in a bear hug and they went in the house,they forgot I was even there.You see Harry's dad was in the army somewhere overseas. As I walked home not really understanding what was going on,it seemed every car in town parked or running had the car horn stuck on full blast...seems like such a short time ago...........beesting
JA
(03/08/1999; 11:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3105)
Banks and Cash Reserves
In light of the discussion pertaining to cash and Y2k I thought the following to interesting.

http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990308.htm
Alchemist
(03/08/1999; 11:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3106)
********* Ag price 5.30**********
What to say? That is the question. First, thank you all for all the insite gained during the past year. I try to read on a daily basis so as not to miss anything. As mentioned by most others the depth of understanding by the members is exceptional and well explained to the general reader. Thanks
My sense on Y2K is that there will be many general interruptions but most on a fairly short term basis. Certain items will be scarse or non existent but will not halt the wheels of commerce. Prices will rise considerably, as I think this event will be the one to start the $'s decline as well as the markets. It is at this time that the euro will start to come more into the role as alternative global reserve currency.
I feel that we need to much more collectively,work toward sustainable economies, where local areas are much less influenced by happenings in other areas of the world. The globalization that we are currently experiencing has very much disrupted the local sustainable economies of the past. I think that beyond a certain point, quality of life starts to be reduced. The concept of sustainablity, although advocated by the UN, is contrary to what we are now experiencing, with the continued corporate concentration around the world. If we were truly sustainable I don't believe that there would need to be as much concern over Y2K. Sustainability does not mean isolation from world, only more control over items necessary to basic life, s.a food shelter, and love
Our family will prepare by probably a months supply of bulk grains, rice, beans etc. as well as canned fish and other protein sources. We are very close to a clean fresh water source so do not need to be concerned about that. We will have five gallons or so of kerosene for kerosene lamps, and a good supply of candles. We live in a farm community so should be able to continue to get dairy, fresh veggies eggs
I am slowly accumulating Maple leafs and have had junk silver coins from the days they were in circulation. I will have some small denomination bills, but not till Sept or Oct. Most of my banking is done through the local credit union, where I am well known by the manager. I believe that trying to keep money within the community, is again very healthy for the community and for its sustainability. I believe that there will be a slow deteoriation of the large urban areas, with more independent sustainable villages or small towns. With the advent of the internet, there will be less and less need to live in big cities, and more choice in rural living. One will not need to be cut off from the world or from those sharing ones world view. I think that Y2K will make more people think of alternatives. I think lots but don't get too much chance to express. Sorry if it seems rambly



TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 13:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3107)
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold rallies on short-covering
By Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--Mar 8--COMEX Apr gold futures ended up $3.2 at $292.7 after
hitting an 8-week high of $293.0 on short-covering. Dealers described today's
activity as mostly technically-motivated, with stops triggered at $291.5 and
$292.0 propelling gains until a second round of buy stops near $292.5 were hit
near the close.
More to follow...

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 13:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3108)
More Bridge News
Johannesburg--Mar 8--The South African Reserve Bank's holdings of gold
and foreign assets totalled 32.745 billion rand in February compared with
32.557 billion rand in January, the Bank said today. By I-Net Bridge, Story
.795

Taipei--Mar 8--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 4.564 tonnes in February,
compared with 5.821 tonnes a year earlier, the Finance Ministry announced
today. By Stephen Burstein, Bridge News, Story .6016

Sydney--Mar 8--Papua New Guinea is continuing negotiations with the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank on a financing package expected
to be in excess of the US $80-90 million discussed in 1997, Deputy Prime
Minister and Treasurer Iairo Lasaro told Bridge News. No final decision has
been reached on whether to push ahead with a proposed US dollar eurobond,
he said, expressing concern about both the cost and the impact it could
have on the country's financial system. By Sophie Hares, Bridge News, Story
.13808

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 14:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3109)
Ha ha ha...good double entendre, Town Crier..."More to follow!"
In your news, "...[gold] hitting an 8-week high of $293.0 on short-covering. Dealers described today's
activity as mostly technically-motivated, with stops triggered...propelling gains until a second round of buy stops near $292.5 were hit near the close.
More to follow..."

You've accidentally hit the nail on the head. This market is SOOOooooo short, that once the move is clear for all to see, not only today's activity (as reported) but ALL future activity will be "mostly technically-motivated, with [buy] stops triggered" by the shorts unwinding their positions. Will any be foolish enough to attempt to add to their short postion? "There are two types of shorts in this world, my friend; the quick, and the dead." See you at the funeral. ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 14:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3110)
Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Hits 2-month High on Fund Covering
New York-March 8-FWN--Gold futures settled sharply
higher here on a day when technical considerations
triggered some fund short covering, sources said. However,
contacts pointed out, the funds likely are still heavily
short, meaning more covering is possible if the market can
get through the next resistance level.
Silver futures also moved higher as some of the recent
long liquidation seems to have run its course, at a time
when lease rates still point to a generally favorable
fundamental outlook, sources said.
Platinum and palladium were described as trading within
thin ranges, perhaps getting some help from gold and
silver.
April gold closed with a gain of $3.20 to $292.70 and
traded as high as $293, its strongest level since $296.20
back on Jan. 12.
Gold managed to hold its own over the last few weeks
despite a sell off in May silver from a high of $5.81 on
Feb. 4 to a low of $5.13 on Friday.
Then today, some fund short covering entered the
market, apparently induced by technical considerations since
there did not appear to be any fresh fundamental news,
reported George Kleinman, president with Commodity Resource
Corp.
"There was some fund short covering and we went up to
the next resistance level, which is $293," he said.
"The big shorts have been the funds, and they're
still major shorts...We'd expect there to be more if we
have a sustained move above $293," he said.
The next target would be the January high of $296.50,
then around $302 to $303, he said. Support is anticipated at
previously failed resistance of $290.50, then $286.50.
Kleinman did note that volume appeared light today.
While there was not any breaking news today, Kleinman
noted that recently news reports indicated that Belgium's
central bank gold holdings had fallen from around 1,300 tons
a decade ago to around 300 now, but that no further sales
are planned. Kleinman offered the view that an end to the
selling may also be the case for other central banks tied in
with Europe's new single currency, the euro.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 15:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3111)
As promised, continuation of Bridge Gold Report
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold rallies on short-covering

"The gold market really had a taste for stops this morning, and later in the
day it was feeling around for some more," said one dealer. "The problem is
there's a few big dealers that might be waiting to sell any real volume that
comes in."
One large US trade house was said to be selling into the rally this morning,
but a burst of renewed buying late in the session brought Apr to the 8-week high
late in the session.
Dealers said gold also found support from today's higher CRB index and the
rally in crude prices, with a fairly steady performance in the US dollar against
the Japanese yen giving the market little reason to sell the precious metal.
Bill O'Neill, director of futures research for Merrill Lynch, said there's
more potential for short-covering in coming sessions.
"Gold has a big speculative short position, so long-term fundamentals aside,
I think there's potential to see the market spike up because we're getting into
levels where
these shorts are going to be uncomfortable," O'Neill said. "A lot of these
positions are on at levels not really too profitable at this point."
O'Neill, who recently changed his outlook on gold to neutral from bearish,
said Apr gold keeps stalling at resistance at $293-294, but the longer the
market keeps testing those levels, the greater the likelihood of a breakout.
"I would watch $293-294, because the more you get into that area, the more
you're going to start to get the very substantial spec shorts in trouble," said
O'Neill.
He added that fundamentally gold is showing some promise, as there are
perceptions that central bank sales will be less of an issue this year.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 15:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3112)
Ecuador ***NEWS FLASH*** Bank runs cause Bank Holiday
HEADLINE: Ecuador announces surprise holiday after bank panic--March 8 (Reuters)

We reported this drastic devaluation of 27% on Thursday. BANK RUNS FOLLOWED.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/56.html

HEADLINE: Ecuador bonds down as officials call bank holiday--March 8 (Reuters)

Related story.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/34.html

HEADLINE: Goldman builds up public relations area before IPO

Exiting at the top...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990308/bby.html
TownCrier
(03/08/1999; 16:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3113)
A *must read* for a good wrap on Y2K weekend at the Round Table
I say again, a must read:

http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990308.htm

(Pssssssst...must read)
nugget101
(03/08/1999; 16:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3114)
********* Silver 5.265 **********
Good luck everybody.
THX-1138
(03/08/1999; 17:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3115)
Y2k
Hi.
Been lurking on this site for about a year. Wondered if I could get in on this silver thing. ****Silver $6.10****
Ok, thats out of the way.

I have noticed that some people have been saying that the first hint of Y2K will be in September. That is wrong. I work for the Government and have recently been told to build a contingency plan for Y2K assuming there is a threat of War on Jan 1, 2000. I attended the Y2K meeting to discuss this stuff last Friday. Here are the dates that the Government considers to be important.

1) 9 April 1999 (99th day of year...i.e. 9999 means end of file error on old computer programs)

2) 9 September 1999 (9/9/99...i.e. 9999 means end of file error on old computer programs)

3) 1 October 1999 (Start of Fiscal year 2000)

4) 1 January 2000 (Obvious Reasons)

5) 29 February 2000 (First leap day of the millenium, and could effect computers using Julian Dates)

6) 1 March 2000 (Day after the first leap day)

7) Every day after if computers uses Julian Dates.

Just thought I would let every one know.
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 17:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3116)
Y2K, The Alignment of Data. Part 3
Part 1 is #3039--3/6, part 2, #3074--3/7, and #3039 earlier that day would actually fit in sequence
between them.

I hold that the primary stable datum of the Y2K aftermath will be that most things will still be in place, albeit not necessarily in the place we wished. Hopefully most things will have remained under the same ownership, despite the universal enthrallment with fiat money. It is probably a given that there will be less affluence for a while, a definite drop in "conspicuous consumption." This general alteration and displacement in the economic scene, however, will serve to enhance the growth potential of www commerce. Ongoing trends, such as direct sales and the ruralization of business, will be the way of things more than ever,. The small low-overhead business person with intelligence and ambition as major assets, will thrive in the new environment.

On the personal level we are preparing for change. I expect our current work of designing and building one-of-a-kind cedar-and-glass oceanfront homes will be quiet for awhile. While our technical capabilities can be applied to any kind of construction, I wouldn't try to predict anything in this field of commerce until we're out the other side of the millennium tunnel. For more reasons than just Y2K, Robin and daughter Lisa have been building a multi-facility dot- com business. Robin is a month or two out from launching a magazine/directory that will be well positioned for post-Y2K, and Lisa is already servicing several clients as a website designer. Once I know what the needs and wants of the new age residences are, I may put together a plan collection targeted for the brave new world, like "The Year 2000 Bolt-Hole Plan Book".

The time and form of the reestablished electronic infrastructure will depend on how the people of the nation and of the world rally to the cause. Posts on this Forum and other sites have visions that run the gamut from a decadent, lawless society waiting for an excuse to rape, pillage and burn, to a patriotic, all-for-one and one-for-all group of rugged individualists, who come together in times of crisis.

beestings response this morning(#3104 ) reminds me of the way society was in those World War II years. Almost everyone had a friend, lover, husband or father overseas and in harm's way. On what we called the "homefront," everyone had a part. As kids, we sold defense stamps in increments of 10 &25 cents to be glued into books to become $18.75 bonds ($25.00 @ 10 year maturity). In grade school, we gave a performance for the grownups with lyrics such as
"Get on, get on, get on the road to victory.
Get off, get off, get off the rusty dusty.
And get on, get on, get on the road to victory,
And buy another bond today."
(Maybe A.G. will bring it back with a rewrite.)
At the end of the show, a friend of mine came down the aisle in a hideous monster costume. He was the "Squander Bug," who wasted precious resources by buying unneeded things. The audience all booed and hissed.
In 4th grade, each kid learned how to knit. We made squares which were then stitched into afghans, blankets for soldiers in wheelchairs .

Gasoline rationing was, as I recall, the most restricting aspect of home life. Every car had an "A" sticker on the windshield. Business people who had to make sales calls also got a "B." And if you were totally on the road for work you got a "C." The slogan was, "Is this trip necessary?'

One other economic event I remember was during the first summer of the war. At a carnival at camp, we threw baseballs at pictures of that year's four villains � Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, and...John L. Lewis, head of the United Mine Workers! He had called a strike and was seen by everyone as a saboteur for crippling the "war effort."

So, how will the world of the new millennium respond to a similar situation, being deprived of the normal plentitude of life by a common enemy? Last night's news item about Chevron Oil, I believe, was the wake up call that has been needed for the complacent-heads to get out of their apathy beds and go to work. As more and more picture frames of the Millennium movie come into view (yesterday's data on True Value and Ace Hardware going into the Y2K business, for instance), the parallels to WWII are a bit uncanny.

There are also differences. Today's FEMA is not of the same government as the various agencies of the '40s and all the "Dollar-a-Year" business leaders who volunteered their working lives for the country. Today's populace is not the same close-knit patriotic America of that time. The term "Gung Ho" is Chinese for "pull together." Interesting how it has evolved into an expression of derision!

There is also from China, in the "I-Ching," an ideogram depicting the co-existence of crisis and opportunity. Such will be this new time.

backlash
(03/08/1999; 18:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3117)
***** 5.10 ***** Mar.12 Silver

Ah yes, another poster that read not the rules well! So this repost with the 'guesstimate' for the COMEX close.

The greatest surprise (? where is spell ck when I need it?) this year ('99) it appears to me is the DJIA. It was bad before, but this is worse.

There is absolutely no basis that I can find to justify this latest runup. Should one like to compare the P/E ratios versus yields, they are still way out of line. That is unless 30 years is a reasonable time frame in which to become 'whole' on the investment. In my earliest economic lesson, I learned that a sum of money invested at 6% annual return would double in just over 11 years. Right now there are instruments that do that well with virtually no risk (assuming $ stability) at all. Some of them are even Tax exempt. This being the case, then a some of money so invested would grow by a multiplier of over 6 in the same time frame.

Whew, just what makes this runup reasonable? Absolutely nothing! And yet look at the stampede to get on board. You bet, this is one whale of a surprise.

bl
USAGOLD
(03/08/1999; 18:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3118)
THX 1138 and Nugget 101....
The silver price has to be in the subject box surrounded by stars*************. We need 30 words or more on the biggest surprise so far in 1999.

You guys didn't think you'd get off that easy, did you?
Magician
(03/08/1999; 19:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3119)
********3/12 Ag:5.55********
Greetings All,

Biggest surprise this year has got to be the lackluster
Euro market! Can anyone say impotent? Could I say
unimportant? First off, this looks bad to fiat money
everywhere, except for the bestial US$. You can bet
that gnomes, brits and deutsch will all pinch
their metal with tighter grip as euro slips down to even
parity with $. Of course during all this, new questions will be begging concerns as to which nation's CB wants to hold which nation's warehouse pile of Tnotes. Of course Europhiles will try to stick our Fed with a consumately large pile of their fresh Tnotes. Will our boys(&girls) bite? Not likely. Not even the Fed knows for sure if gold's heralded monetary role can be usurped (though they have made a convincing go of it). Get more than one cook in on this stew and it will definitely to go sour. But
can Bretton Woods be thrown into the bonfire of the vanities? Probably not until after we REALLY have a war.

No doubt the US$ prime rates will relax again this year in attempt to forestall the storm in world politics and monetary policies brooding on the horizon ever since loose money coupled with efforts at gold devaluation began. Possible, but unlikely is introduction of more lucrative Eurobonds. Euro represents a more solid alternative to the cotton candy $, but the market (surprise surprise) does not seem to trust this yet.

Perhaps this says more for the continued position that Gold and PMs have historically occupied despite leveraged shorts,
gold loans and oodles of bad press. The truth still is that despite the several years of organized hype, competing world currencies will never move far from premium values for PM's until their favorite currency reigns supreme and despite
popular opinion, this will never happen. US$ seems to come closer and closer to supremacy, but the world will sooner switch to gold or other commodity based currencies. One question is when will spot prices come back in line with the huge premiums individual dealers must currently charge? Of course this discrepancy only serves to hamstring the market action further. That there is a discrepancy is underreported and big news, but is no big surprise to me.

This forum has grown much in a short while.
Says much for pm'rs who all want to keep in touch with market forces! Leave it to the glint of PM dangled before
us to get me to come out of the cyberworks with an opinion. I am really enjoying that coin tied to a stick,
hope you enjoyed the ride!

Nudges and winks,
Mr. Magician

PS: Would love to receive that comp'd ABC's book! Could
definitely enjoy a read through Mr Kosare's perspectives.
Goldfly
(03/08/1999; 19:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3120)
*******Silver 5.60*********
I'd say the surprise of the year is that Brazil got caught flat-footed at the economic breakdown. Was there *anyone* who said "Naw, not Brazil. They'll be fine."???? For months pundits were telling us it was about to tank. There was certainly ample warning.

In another way though, it's no surprise. It's just typical of how governments operate. Dawdle and obfuscate. Nothing is actually done until they are in pain, then they screw it up worse. 50% interest rates. Think about that. A sure sign of NO productive economic activity, beyond bare essentials.

We are not immune. The truth is out there....

I have to stop, this is making me sick.....

GF
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 19:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3121)
April gold in overseas trading...
now $293.10. Bollinger bands for 10 minute trades are tight. Suspect breakout to $$295 overnight. This, I suspect, will light a fire upon some in the New York trading AM. If gold hits $293.30 in next hour, then next stop $295 (we hopes). Weekly chart shows upper bollinger band at $$301 and it (the price) is stepping up to the plate.

Bill Murphy says, "...Gold closed some $3.30 higher today and silver closed about 8 cents higher. The price of gold
has gone up every day since Midas put out
his "major gold rally imminent!" bulletin last
Wednesday. We HAVE RECEIVED FURTHER CONFIRMATION
that our reasons for this prediction are right
on the money."

So what does Bill know?

Looking good. Go gold.

Gold just hit $293.20. $300 coming soon to a market near you.

NORTH OF 49
(03/08/1999; 20:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3122)
VIA SATILLITE
I knew it! I knew it! I knew it!!!!!

I turn my back on the gold market for one lousy day and what happens??!! I miss it all.

Arrived in "The country formerly known as the Evil Empire" a bit ago and had the opportunity to plug into a satillite link to download and post, although at US$ 13.00 a min, it'll be brief!!

Aristotle and Stranger, thanks for the Bon Voyage,--38 hours in and out of "planes, trains, and automobiles" pretty much discounts the "Bon" though.

It seems that my fellow members are doing an admirable job of spurring the market on in my absence--maybe I should hit the Crusade trail more often--I feel so inadequate.

Will post as I am given the chance, which may be more often than I expected--everybody here seems to have a cellular phone, so I take that as a good indicator of communication modernization.

Keep up the good work fellow miesters. Man it's cold here!!

No49
SteveH
(03/08/1999; 20:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3123)
30 minute chart on www.quote.com bollinger shows gold
in breakout formation for $294.00 now.

Ask is $293.30.



SteveH
(03/08/1999; 20:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3124)
Holy cow batman!
$293.50, asking $293.60. Peter, you awake.

Get the beer and chips this puppy is better than the super bowl.

Did you see that one?!!!
Silver Tongue
(03/08/1999; 20:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3125)
Gold
Well my brothers and sisters gold is starting to lose a little of its tarnish. Today I was proud to be a gold holder and this evening the news continues to be bullish. Maybe our long drought is over. Maybe we are entering the land of milk and golden honey. I would liek to see about $25 tacked on quickly to the price of the yeller stuff. Makes me want to break out into song, "Old Yeller, Come Back Yeller". That's about as much as I remember. Go Gold and go often.
Richard, Oregon
(03/08/1999; 20:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3126)
Anybody Besides Me Having Trouble Keeping Up??
This is terrific. Sooooo much to read I can't keep up. MK really did it this time. And getting gold to go up on the last day of the contest, man he's good, really good. Back to reading!!
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 21:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3127)
Steve
Yes, yes, I'm here. Fighting for keyboard time with the female entrepreneurs.

I figured friday for a trend-line breakout, but it wasn't dramatic. Now we're way out there, with Asia on an ascending chart line.

Not too shabby!!
ET
(03/08/1999; 21:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3128)
*** SI9H - Friday Close - $5.475 ***

Since I didn't have a clue what silver might do I called my silver trading buddy Gary C. to get some idea what he thought. He's out of the market. He sees silver moving higher this week but not much. He didn't like the breakdown last week. He says the rest of his buddies are still short. He didn't have high confidence in this prediction. He said it could just as easily move lower by 20-30 cents.

ET
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 21:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3129)
At the risk of appearing premature...
Let me remind you of my post twenty-four hours ago:
------------
Aristotle (3/7/99; 23:17:40MDT - Msg ID:3092)
Huh? Gold is rising on the Austalian/Hong Kong shift??
The last time I noticed such a freak occurrance, gold moved up over $10 in just a couple of days. Will history repeat?
---------------
Well, me lads at this table round, the trend continues yet again. UP really well in 'stralia and Hong Kong.
This might not be the day, but then again, it might. One day WILL be the breathtaking move that will leave you cursing that you knew better and wished you'd acted soon. Not this knight...I'm already on a gold standard. And what a peaceful easy feeling it is. ---Aristotle
backlash
(03/08/1999; 22:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3130)
TownCrier

Thanks for the link to y2knewswire location. Just finished looking it over and it is most germaine to our Y2K discussions at this site. I add my endorsement of checking it out for everyone here.

bl
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 22:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3131)
Steve, Aristotle, Gandalf
Spot just went to $292.05
The Stranger
(03/08/1999; 22:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3132)
All is Well in Camelot Tonight...
Sleep soundly Knights of Table Round. Merlin hath done his magic well...
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 23:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3133)
Signing off
It is uncanny how by mid contest time, the news seemed to go on a Y2K frenzy.

The most applicable quote that might apply to our prescient host (and group) would be Bob Dylan's, "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing." They'll never make a case for Michael choosing contest topics based on insider information!

I can see my post title has turned out to describe the work of this whole group throughout this fantastic four day binge of reality, "Y2K, The Alignment of Data." And a major AU chart breakout for an aperitive

With extreme praise and affection for all,

Peter A.
Gandalf the White
(03/08/1999; 23:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3134)
GC9J --- WOWERS
Just returned from filing some more claims and what do I find but The Stranger, Steve, Peter and all have tied a rocket under the GC9J --- Just hit 293.7 with a 30 minute lag --- You may be right Steve and if the overnight price gets to 295 before it hits NY --- IT COULD BLAST LIMIT !!
Like Aragorn advised --- get your gold before it is toooo late. tick tick tock ---
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/08/1999; 23:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3135)
Magician--5.55
SteveH already has that number and I'm just below him at 5.542. Now ET's in @ 5.475 (which puts me in a .075 cent box).

GAAAAANDALF !! I need a 4 day lease or forward sale of your magic powder.
Aristotle
(03/08/1999; 23:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3136)
*********silver to be $5.000********* What's silver? Does it bite?
Gold to get away, and silver will be sold as the only recourse??? I feel silly taking part in this because the only real question on my mind is "Silver? What's silver, eh?" I've never found much use for the stuff, although it sure polishes up like nothing else on earth. I have a silver ring I am partial to, but that's about as far as it goes.

The biggest surprise of the past year was the wholesale abandonment of the fundamental concept of value. Of the nations that haven't been summarily reduced by one form of the asian contagion or another, the national policies and individual investment decisions clearly demonstrate an unwavering preference to build Dollar Wealth rather than Real Wealth. Competitive devaluations are a good example. Why on earth would you choose to GIVE AWAY your nation's products and resources in exchange for a net gain in foreign currency? And yet we saw country after country willingly? yield to a devaluation so that competing imports were not to be obtained as cheaply as they otherwise might have been. For the purposes of this single post, my view is certainly simplistic, but given the choice of access to cheap real goods right now, vs. a larger quantity of cash of uncertain purchasing power into the future, I'd choose the goods each and every time. After all, that is what money is all about--swapping for the real goods you need to thrive. While those decisions are beyond the control of the people, look no further than the stock market mania in the U.S. vs. cheap commodities to convince yourself that the people share this same cash-lust. Will their well-demonstrated greed-driven decisions allow them to exit the market in time to spend those dollars on goods while the price is still right? Nope. The near-term future surprise will be the speed at which gold reveals its true value. Do I care? Not really, because I stand before you with feet apart, hands on hips, chest out, chin up, countenance of a calmness that inspires confidence...I am GOLD-MAN! with nary a fiat dollar to my name, living paycheck to paycheck paying all bills and converting the remainder to gold. Try it. You'll like it. (It sure beats writhing with the masses in some future self-determined financial obliteration).
The peace of mind is so complete, when a tree falls in the empty forest, indeed I hear it; and too, the accompanying sound of rousing applause by one hand clapping. Life is every bit as good as the control with which you choose to live it on your terms. Y2K is bad. Gold is good. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 00:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3137)
Gandalf...
Doesn't something give you the feeling that Aragorn already has all the gold he'll probably ever need? I doubt he's waiting for some magical price to 'buy'.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 00:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3138)
AEL and ET
I wanted to be sure that I properly thanked you both specifically for the well-considered opinions Sunday on the "value of cash"-question that I raised. I don't know that I can say that you are right, but I can say that we are in total agreement on the matter.
Some small stock of cash is prudent, but the bulk had best be tangibles, and gold would represent that portion that you would want to remain in a liquid, readily convertible form of wealth. Time to saw logs. (can't let that fallen tree go the waste!) ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 00:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3139)
My "vision" of Aragorn III
YES Aristotle, I envision Aragorn III being somewhat similar to the old comic book story of the Grandfather figure to Donald's three nephews (Huey, Dewey, and Louie). Remember the pictures of him sitting amoungst the piles of gold coins and bars. McScrouge Duck, if my memory is not failing me again. BUT, we all know that Aragorn III is the most sharing Goldheart of all. Come on A3, give us your encouragement again as the awaited for party may be about to begin. Like Aragorn III says, Got Gold ?
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 00:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3140)
Seeing lots of these lately
HEADLINE: Recent euro weakness due to strong dollar-Schioppa-- March 9 (Reuters)

Yet another in a string of news releases that state the euro's recent weakness is more an indicator of a strong dollar than of anything related to the euro.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bj.html
turbohawg
(03/09/1999; 01:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3141)
Backlash
Salud !!! You can join in anytime ... in fact, I say we kick it off early ... we need to start a countdown to the Y2K crash bash !!!
SteveH
(03/09/1999; 01:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3142)
Took a nap, drum rolls please...
$293.90 for April gold now. All technicals are go for a lift off.

Stochastics, check.
RSI, check.
MACD, crossing, check.
On balance volume, check.

T minus five hours and counting...tick, tock, tick, tock.......


Houston, all systems are a go.......
turbohawg
(03/09/1999; 02:00:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3143)
almost forgot
that's 297 days and counting till the big event ... crash or bash ??
SteveH
(03/09/1999; 05:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3144)
April ______ now ....
$294.20!
T. Remital
(03/09/1999; 06:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3145)
TOOT-TOOT
Very little to stop this train now..a few minor bumps
along the way,600 here we come...
The Stranger
(03/09/1999; 06:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3146)
We Have Lift Off!
8:30 A.M. in New York. Gold already up $2.10. Long bond already down 1/2 point. It sure is great to have you guys to share this with.

Gandalf- try Scrooge McDuck.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 07:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3147)
This phenomenon was referred to in a recent post
Having recently encountered this good summary, thought I'd pass it along for those not familiar with the report. I'm sure you'll make the connection.

The Hundredth Monkey--by Ken Keyes, jr.
The Japanese monkey, Macaca fuscata, had been observed in the wild for a period of over 30 years.
In 1952, on the island of Koshima, scientists were providing monkeys with sweet potatoes dropped in the sand. The monkeys liked the taste of the raw sweet potatoes, but they found the dirt unpleasant.
An 18-month-old female named Imo found she could solve the problem by washing the potatoes in a nearby stream. She taught this trick to her mother. Her playmates also learned this new way and they taught their mothers too.
This cultural innovation was gradually picked up by various monkeys before the eyes of the scientists.
Between 1952 and 1958 all the young monkeys learned to wash the sandy sweet potatoes to make them more palatable.
Only the adults who imitated their children learned this social improvement. Other adults kept eating the dirty sweet potatoes.
Then something startling took place. In the autumn of 1958, a certain number of Koshima monkeys were washing sweet potatoes -- the exact number is not known.
Let us suppose that when the sun rose one morning there were 99 monkeys on Koshima Island who had learned to wash their sweet potatoes.
Let's further suppose that later that morning, the hundredth monkey learned to wash potatoes.
THEN IT HAPPENED!
By that evening almost everyone in the tribe was washing sweet potatoes before eating them.
The added energy of this hundredth monkey somehow created an ideological breakthrough!
But notice.
A most surprising thing observed by these scientists was that the habit of washing sweet potatoes then jumped over the sea --
Colonies of monkeys on other islands and the mainland troop of monkeys at Takasakiyama began washing their sweet potatoes.
Thus, when a certain critical number achieves an awareness, this new awareness may be communicated from mind to mind.
Although the exact number may vary, this Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon means that when only a limited number of people know of a new way, it may remain the conscious property of these people.
But there is a point at which if only one more person tunes-in to a new awareness, a field is strengthened so that this awareness is picked up by almost everyone!

(from the book "The Hundredth Monkey" by Ken Keyes, jr. The book is not copyrighted and the material may be reproduced in whole or in part.) http://worldtrans.org/pos/monkey.html
ET
(03/09/1999; 07:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3148)
Aristotle, Peter

Aristotle - thanks for the kind words. It has been a fun weekend. I learned much. Hopefully this y2k thing will remain on the front burner here.

Peter - Ah, you've been boxed, but you've still got some room in there. I didn't post until late for fear of getting boxed also. I figured old Aristotle was lurking in the weeds and I noticed he posted right at the deadline. He's a sly one.

Well, it's off to Minneapolis for a couple of days. I'll look forward to returning to the forum. Thanks to all for an informative weekend.

ET
nugget101
(03/09/1999; 07:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3149)
From a Kitco post re monkeys
The Theory of the Hundredth Monkey Debunked



I was amused to see a reference to the myth of the Hundredth Monkey on your home page in the Cosmologies section.
The story about the miraculous transfer of new ideas amongst a colony of monkeys has been doing the rounds since
1979, but unfortunately is pure myth.

The origin of the tale is the 1979 Lyall Watson book, Lifetide. Watson has since confirmed he made the story up. In
1989, Watson said "It is a metaphor of my own making, based on very slim evidence and a great deal of hearsay. I have
never pretended otherwise."

True, a study of monkeys on Koshima island was undertaken in the 1950's by a group of Japanese anthropologists, and
potato washing was one of the behaviours observed. However, there is no evidence that the potato-washing was passed
on to other monkeys by anything other than simple observation of other monkeys. No monkeys on other islands
learned the trick "spontaneously" or "miraculously" Put simply, it never happened.

In essence, the whole report is folklore, encouraged by both Lyall Watson's book, and Ken Kesey's later 1982 book.

Of course, the truth or otherwise of this report does not disprove the underlying theory of "morphic resonance" as
Rupert Sheldrake terms it. In fact, I even find the theory somewhat attractive and believe the events of the Hundredth
Monkey are something that could happen.

However, I suppose my gripe is about this sort of stuff being passed off as "scientific fact". So long as it is presented as
myth or metaphor, I have no problems. I feel the same way when creationists try to convince me of the literal truth of
Genesis.

Anyway, just thought I'd blow off some steam. I'm not criticising your home page - I think it's great. Keep up the good
work.

GEK

Read the article that started all this: The Hundredth Monkey.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 08:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3150)
Nugget101 & ET
Nugget, thanks for providing the additional perspective on the critical-mass / monkey theory. We've seen this point reached in the stock market when the chart turned vertical a few years ago. Whether or not a fuzzy little island dweller washes its food or not, we need look no further than our personal human experiences to see where we are likely headed. Some things going up and some coming down (like tulips bitten by frost).

ET -- you'd be making a mistake to call me sly in regard to any motives or insight on my silver W.A.G. and the timing of the post. I'm sure that five-even is out of the ballpark of any neighboring predictions. The timing only represented a last minute decision to throw my hat in the ring...curious as to whether a W.A.G. would compare favorably to the careful analysis by many for familiar with the silver market. If my shooting from the hip costs someone else a hard-earned treasure, I would in good conscience defer the prize to them.
Back to counting monkeys...or not. ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 08:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3151)
Thanks McStranger
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/09/1999; 08:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3152)
Today's Gold Market Report: In Two Words. Short-Covering.
MARKET UPDATE (3/9/99): Gold moved solidly to higher ground this morning making
an 11 week high amidst high volume U.S. hedge fund short-covering. Yesterday there were
two bursts of short-covering in New York according to this morning's London Reuters
which knocked out technical resistance at the $292. level. Gold paused in Europe and then
bolted higher in the early going in New York on renewed short-covering from hedge funds.
Paul Nesbitt of T. Hoare and Co. stated that, "Another, higher close today will confirm that
we are very quickly going to test above the $299.00 level." One of the consistent opinions
we have heard from technical analysts here at USAGOLD is that when gold broke resistance
at $292 spot price there was not much in the way of resistance until we reached the $302
figure. Bridge News reports that one large U.S. trade house was selling into the rally
yesterday despite the already large short position in the yellow metal.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
JUMBOJIMBO
(03/09/1999; 09:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3153)
gold GOING up
THE US$ PRICE WILL SOAR SHORTLY; check out Bill Murphys "GOLD ANTI=TRUST ACTION". The shorts are on the run; the colluders are in disarray and its overdue GO GATA JUMBO JIMBO
backlash
(03/09/1999; 10:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3154)
Just Curious

Sir Gandalf, I happened to notice that each of your posts end with "<;-)" Does this mean something in particular? If so, would you mind sharing it? Maybe you explained it before my entry to this forum.

bl
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 11:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3155)
Hear ye! Let all of Earth bear impartial witness to these events
Many a knight, good and true, took aim at the target of March silver three days ere the ides.
Upon final inspection, which arrow will fairly come nearest the clout?
This royal subject was told to look for stars where stars should be; and an oration of thirty words--no less--would reveal the souls fit to toe the mark on the field of contest. Final judgement is reserved for the day appointed, yet look one and all upon these here that seem properly assembled:

Richard, Oregon (3/7/99; 21:38-MsgID:3081)
** 4.75 **

eulu (3/7/99; 16:22-MsgID:3069)
** 4.82 **

Gandalf the White (3/6/99; 22:59-MsgID:3038)
** 4.95 **

Aristotle (3/8/99; 23:56-MsgID:3136)
** 5.000 **

T. Remital (3/8/99; 09:59-MsgID:3102)
** 5.025 **

JA (3/7/99; 13:58-MsgID:3066)
** 5.10 **

backlash (3/7/99; 21:24-MsgID:3080)
** 5.10 **

backlash (3/8/99; 18:09-MsgID:3117)
** 5.10 **

Alchemist (3/8/99; 11:53-MsgID:3106)
** 5.30 **

pa kua (3/7/99; 22:52-MsgID:3088)
** 5.37 **

beesting (3/7/99; 00:21-MsgID:3045)
** 5.42 **

Peter Asher (3/6/99; 00:18-MsgID:3004)
** 5.542 **

ET (3/8/99; 21:31-MsgID:3128)
** 5.475 **

SteveH (3/7/99; 10:21-MsgID:3054)
** 5.55 **

Magician (3/8/99; 19:01-MsgID:3119)
** 5.55 **

Goldfly (3/8/99; 19:38-MsgID:3120)
** 5.60 **

Farfel (3/6/99; 19:25-MsgID:3032)
** 5.87 **

In observance of these events, only the King shall proclaim was is and never shall be. Appeals must be addressed accordingly with His Royal Majesty.
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 12:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3156)
"What is money?"
HEADLINE: Russia fails again to pay Canada for grain--March 9 (Reuters)

Russia misses its fifth payment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/zw.html

HEADLINE: Argentine shares open higher on Brazil-IMF deal--March 9 (Reuters)

Last paragraph mentions the Ecuador bank closures as a Monday through Thursday "national holiday" to deal with its currency crisis and rumors of foreign currency confiscations...some holiday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/ul.html
Clint H
(03/09/1999; 12:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3157)
backlash post 3154
A question directed to Sir Gandalf in post 3154, what does "<;-)" mean? The quality of the posts says it is not a dunce so it must be a Wizard.
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 19:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3158)
test
test
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 20:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3159)
Another test post
Posting should be back online soon.
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 20:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3160)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Pares Gains But Up on Tech. Bounce
New York-March 9-FWN--Gold was the lone gainer in the
precious metals complex today, drawing follow-through
buying from a technical bounce that occurred on Monday.
However, the market did pare its earlier gains on selling
pressure from a trade house that had been a buyer, sources
said.
Silver dipped when it was unable to penetrate
resistance, while platinum and palladium finished softer in
markets largely consolidating.
April gold, which closed last week at $289.50, got as
high as $295.50 today before pulling back to finish with a
70-cent gain to $293.40.
"There was upside follow-through from yesterday's
constructive technical performance," said Dave Rinehimer,
head of futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
Traders reported that there appeared to be fund short
covering both Monday, when April gold gained $3.20, and this
morning, when at its high it was up another $2.80.
"However, when we got up to the highs around the $295
area, we did see some selling pressure come out of a trade
house that has been a featured buyer over the last week or
so," Rinehimer said. "They had been a featured buyer when
the market was under $290 and started to do some selling
around $295 or so.
"I think that prompted some profit taking."
As for the gains in gold over the last couple of days,
Rinehimer said, "There haven't been any dramatic changes in
the fundamentals in this market. I think most of the move up
was technical in nature. And until the recent move up, the
market had been susceptible to short covering by the funds,
which I think we've seen recently."
A floor trader said the market broke up out of a price
channel when the April futures moved through the $291.50 to
the $292 area on Monday.
Both this trader and Rinehimer put resistance for April
gold at the Jan. 11 high of $296.50. "If we take that out,
we may go to $298 or maybe even $299," the trader said.
Resistance was put around $292.
Rinehimer said a key for gold will be the next
Commitment of Traders Report, as players look for any change
in the net position of the reportable non-commercial
category, which includes funds and which had been heavily
short in the last report.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Jeff
(03/09/1999; 20:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3161)
Posting back online
Whew... posting is back online. There was a bug that popped up all of the sudden and it took me a long time to squash it. Everything should be back to normal. The only thing that I am not sure about is archiving. I have no good way to test it, so we will just have to wait and see how it goes tonight. If the archiving is not successful, I'll get it fixed tomorrow. Sorry about the trouble everyone.
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 20:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3162)
Clint H's answer to backlash's question
Yes Clint, the mark is the sign of the Wizard Gandalf of J.R.R.Tolkien's Middle Earth writings. The sign is a right eye winking, smiling Wizard, happy because of being amoungst the cadre of Goldhearts surrounding the FORUM Roundtable. "backlash", if you were to read the "Lord of the Rings" by JRRT, you would find many others that you know also. FRODO LIVES !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 20:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3163)
Thanks Jeff for squashing the "bug" !!
The whole evening without my dose of FORUM would be hard to take.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/09/1999; 20:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3164)
Salute to Jeff...
Thank you, my friend. For keeping the boiler stoked and the room warm. You are a tireless (though sometimes tired) and dedicated talent. You also know you're way around a computer. MK
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 21:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3165)
Y2K strikes the Round Table?
FOCUS-U.S., IMF still working on new credit plan--March 9 (Reuters)

Same tune, new singer. Borrowing money to pay back a loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bcw.html

HEADLINE: Currency board idea for Ecuador sets off debate--March 9 (Reuters)

Revealing comments into the nature of money
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bek.html

HEADLINE: Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval--(March 8) JOURNAL OF COMMERCE
http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm

HEADLINE: Y2K not OK for this investor--(March 9) CSM
http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/1999/03/08/text/p16s1.html
backlash
(03/09/1999; 21:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3166)
Thanks TownCrier for posting status.

Opps, sorry JA. I didn't review the late nite posts of the 7th, so did not realize 5.10 was taken. Too late now to change my projection; however, it is good to know that I just so happened to arrive at the same number as one so well studied in this field. I feel like I have already won just by being on the same number. You being the first Knight to this position, may I have the privilege of serving as your squire for the match? Let us watch and cheer together!

Good Luck. bl
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 21:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3167)
Here's a thought...
If a focused Round Table deliberation on Y2K has the ability to become manifested at the forum, what say we shift gears to talk about the potential impact of a very high price of gold?

Far be it for the likes of me to monitor and comment on each wiggle of the gold market, but you must admit, the novelty of a rising market holds a certain fascination. There will be up days and down days, but the trend as a whole has moved to favor the holders and not the accumulators. I hope you intend to make your move into gold soon if you are planning one.
So, having said that, I'd like to point out that following such a bold shift in the U.S. yesterday, gold did remarkably well oversees, and it is more remarkable that by day's end it ended over a half-dollar higher from the previous day. And yet again, the overseas markets are treating gold (so far) with the respect it deserves. It would seem that gold is poised now to demand higher prices, but don't be surprised by a valiant attempt by short sellers for one last hurrah. Foolish as we move further into Y2K awareness for the general population. ---Aristotle
Richard, Oregon
(03/09/1999; 21:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3168)
Comments!
Weighing In. . .

Aristotle, Goldfly, ET - You were discussing Value of Cash for several days. I just have a few comments only. I don't have time to write a book and I don't know that much.

Aristotle #3051 3/7 - "When the physical cash is withdrawn from the system of commerce (mid-year?) we will have to get by solely on electronic-type payments; credit cards, and checks (which are electronically cleared through the Fed)." [So you believe that ALL the physical cash will be hoarded, not 'spent' at all? I'm a small business owner and this would be disastrous, in all likelihood. I hope withdrawn cash would still be spent and you'd just go to the bank each day/week for your allocation. Remember the gas lines?]

"The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about." [This seems to be a prime statement (loses its purchasing) power you are basing all the rest of your thoughts on, yes/no? I ask, why will it loose it's purchasing power?]

{If we loose power, most businesses will be closed. No heat, computers, AC, freezers, etc. I'm NO convinced major problems will arise because of the severe need for service, ie. hospitals, nursing homes, groc stores.]

"But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?" [Why?? Maybe I'll have $10k in cash and will spend it. If digital is down, are you saying businesses won't take my cash?? If I'm open, I'll take cash in my store. A sale is a sale, period. This would allow me to pay MY employees partially in cash so they can buy what they need, in cash. Pass what there is along.]

ET 3/7 #3059 - "If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets." [How and/or why??]

" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed." [This would be BAD for all business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.]

I agree with all your thoughts for the most part but. . . . .I can't help but think we don't have a clear picture of what's going to happen. Something is NOT right, something is NOT seen at this time and will change your (our) thinking. . . . . IMHO. Really have enjoyed your thoughts.
Goldfly
(03/09/1999; 22:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3169)
Aristotle. A subject that perks up ones ears......

But define "A very high price."

$400? $500? $800? Four figures? Five?

GF
Gandalf the White
(03/09/1999; 22:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3170)
Find that salt shaker, Goldfly !!
Here are Mr. Murphy's "slightly skewed" (IMHO) remarks.
Determine the wheat and toss out the chaff !!
====
From: Bill Murphy
To: Gandalf the White

Subject: Re: Midas du Metropole-gold up 4 days in a row
Date: Tuesday, March 09, 1999 8:37 PM

Midas du Metropole
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"
Q. Little Bear is in the 'doghouse'.
Which table do you think he'd be under ?
A. Gold, of course. But he is hopeful.
****Remind me to watch Little Bear more often.
Is this funny ?


March 9, 1999 - Spot Gold $292 up 70 cents - Spot Silver $5.24 down 4.5 cents

Technicals -

A fierce battle is on. Well, Caf� members: Indiana Jones, Shaka Zulu, James Darren, Anthony Quinn, Gregory Peck and David Niven did all that what we asked them to do - silence the "Guns of Navarone" resistance at $290. That was no small feat. That means that all those gold borrowers at the $290 level over the past two months are now underwater just a tad. While the battle for control of $290 was won by us in the short term, they will not give up the ghost without a further, fanatical fight. The trading volume on Comex today was a very heavy 110,00 contracts versus the 1999 daily average of 35,492 contracts. The intensity of the shorts to hold the line is why the price of gold sold
off today from today's high of $294.10. Goldman Sachs led a barrage of selling that took on spec short covering. The big surprise of the day was that the open interest yesterday went up 1741 contracts to a new recent high of 196,105 contracts. Most observers were looking for a big drop in the open interest as a result of spec short covering. The open interest increase is very good news. It means new longs have entered the long side. It also means
the gold borrowing shorts are having to get shorter to try and keep the gold price from rallying too far, too fast.
The gold game is just that right now- a game. We told you that Goldman Sachs was a big buyer last week. Was the market starting to get away from them as they have so much more buying to do? So they sat on it today, hoping to draw
in more sellers? Based on analyst comments after the close, it worked as most all were immediately bearish. The intrigue grows (see Goldman comment below). The fact that the price of gold sold off $2 from its high today is just an example of how intense this struggle over the gold price is going to be. It is one we think the shorts are going to lose and lose big. The already lost the battle of $290 at Navarone. Soon, they will lose the war and their effort to keep gold off the radar screen for the investment world.
We could easily get a first strike move to $340 in the months to come and then reach our $405 objective by year end. Silver is trading like a typical silver market after a liquidation. Normally, it takes two weeks for it to regain its composure and trend higher again. This time may be no different. Early in the day with gold moving up nicely, silver was sold off. Part of that was due to the unwinding of long silver/short gold spreads. In our opinion it is only a matter of time before silver resumes its upward price course. We still see $9.78 before the end of
the year.

Fundamentals -

"China denied a report by I.D.E.A., a consultancy, that the government set up a research committee to determine the timing of a devaluation. Still, mounting concern helped spur an outflow of funds large enough to prompt China to raise interest rates for U. S. dollar savings by almost 1
percentage point. Chinese investors are buying dollar-priced gold to protect their assets from a devaluation, traders said. "Every time there is any kind of currency crisis, it's good news for gold," said Tony Cadie, an analyst at Rice Rinaldi Turner & Co. in Johnannesburg."
According to John Brimelow the Tael premiums in Hong Kong do not confirm this Bloomberg story, but we thought you should be aware of it. The Hong Kong Tael premium was flat today.
The gold lease rates are still soft: .64 for one month and 1.02 for the six month. The Indian gold and silver premiums remain very firm. Gold-10.3% Silver-10.4%. These high rates bode will for the importing of both these
precious metals into India. To give you some idea of how gold demand was affected the Asian economic crisis, here is a tidbit: 30% of the goldsmith shops in Thailand shut down
last year. 6,000 closed down out of a total of 20,000. 1999 should be a turnaround time as demand is supposed to be very strong so far this year. The Chinese New Year buying was especially strong.
Theatre of the Absurd- from Daniel McConvey and Christy S. Ahn, both of Goldman Sachs, who do the precious metals research for that firm. We reported in the last Midas that the referendum to approve Swiss gold sales had been delayed from April 18 until next year by the Swiss Finance Ministry. We also said that we knew of great resistance of this proposal by the Swiss people in the countryside cantons. Yet, the news media (always negative about gold ) has been insinuating the gold sale was a fait accompli.
Goldman Sachs has been running around the world telling their clients how bearish the gold market is for some time now. They have been encouraging forward sales by producers and I would love to take a look at their own gold borrowing book. Any one want to guess on how many gold loans they took out at .7% to 1.5% for themselves or for clients? Until very recently, they had been big sellers for many, many months. Then yesterday they came out with a PRESS RELEASE saying that the delay of the Swiss gold sale announcement was a big deal. A PRESS RELEASE: "It could be very bullish news because the Swiss gold sales are such a big overhang in the market". Only Goldman made such a big deal out of this. In the same breath they say: "If this is true, we would view it as bullish for the gold market because our understanding is that the 2000 referendum could
be significantly more contentious both in timing and in content". Followed by: "Maintain market weight rating in gold sector and gold price forecasts of $290 gold in 1999 (what was that recent resistance price that our heroes
took out) and $300 in 2000 ( real bullish forecasts for their clients . The situation is far from clear and raises further questions". Give me a break. If this is not a cover for some other hidden agenda, I do not know what one is. Looks to me like this is some sort of reason they are
going to come up with why they are going to change their price forecasts down the road. DOLLARS TO DOUGHTNUTS, they will change their forecasts. They are in a bind. They have everyone short. They want out of the rest of their own shorts. They know the gold market is explosive now. So what to do? Put out this putrid pablem in a public forum so that they can use it as an excuse to change their mind. How many of the CAF� think that Goldman Sachs will tell their clients that they are changing their price forecasts BEFORE
THEY COVER THEIR OWN SHORTS. Nice honorable crowd we have here. It is very good news for us and shows how desperate the shorts have become.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares
There's really life in them there gold stocks. Some juniors have gone up 50% and more the past few days and the XAU has rallied too. Today, it closed flat at 64.93. However, the big cap gold stocks are suffering from negative gold commentary from most all of the prestigious gold analysts (Goldman, etc.). The reports about the price prospects for gold are so negative, or neutral, that the big money managers have shied away from buying the big caps to any great degree on this recent price run up. That means there is enormous pent up demand for these shares that should be unleashed in the near future when gold surprises mainstream Wall Street on a serious upside move. The highly regarded technician, Martin Pring declared a big picture breakout
for gold based on today's London fixes. For more on Martin Pring commentary-http://www.pring.com/rq6m5.htm.

The dollar index traded 99 today and has moved up sharply. The price of gold has been moving up with the dollar. Thus, the gold price in foreign currency terms is on a roll. In the last Midas we suggested to you that a move up in the price of gold in foreign currency terms often precludes a move up in dollar based gold. That has been the case so far again.

While Ted Arnold, famed gold bear analyst, was at Merrill Lynch he used to suggest that Warren Buffet had surely sold out his silver position. Now (at Prudential-Bache) he says Pru believes Buffet still has his position. Different firm, different commentary from T.A. "We would be amazed if he has managed to extricate himself without anyone if the market seeing it being done," he said (Reuters) He goes on. "Much of Buffett's silver sat in British warehouses, away from the more public glare of U. S. venues, which, helped build the impression of metal shortage". A major factor would be Indian demand, which Arnold said tailed off above $5.00 and disappeared come $5.50. Whither come Ted Arnold? Buffets sells, then Buffet has not sold anything.
He says "Indian demand disappeared", yet John Brimelow has tracked Indian silver demand every day these past months and NOT ONCE did the Indian premiums dip below a point that was not ample to encourage imports. We have the documentation on that. Of course, sticker shock pricing affects demand on quick price run ups, but to say it disappeared is just dead wrong. In conclusion, Arnold doubts that any prices above $6.00 can be sustained.
We will be all over him when the price of silver goes $7 bid. Midas cannot get ONE mainstream press person to give him the time of day about our reasons for a bullish silver price forecast. NOT ONE. Yet, just when gold starts to rear its head up who manages to subtly get Bloomberg's attention (Mar. 9)- Good old crybaby, Martin Armstrong, who is the biggest silver trader and most notorious short on Comex. This mega silver bear puts out his bearish spiel to the press and they eat it up. "Somebody tried to squeeze the market again in February. There were rumors from London that Warren Buffet bought more silver and pushed it up for
March. He would be nuts if he did ( yeah, Warren Buffet is nuts, right ) but it took the price up to a recent high of $5.81 an ounce. Somebody was involved. Lease rates went up dramatically". ( Martin take a look. They are still way up.)
"Quite frankly, unfortunately, there has been a kind of manipulation, professional trading in the silver markets. A lot of normal trading activity is not just there anymore�They're still in a deflationary mode, and despite the shananigans of a few players who keep trying to talk up the market into a bull market again, there has been no interest from the street". Martin- take out a Caf� membership. There is big interest in silver here and we live on streets. Midas thinks the price of silver is going to $9.78 in 1999. Your propaganda is getting old and so is your whining about "nobody is interested in commodities". Midas might be a nobody, but this "nobody" is interested. And Martin, while your at it, please give me your technical take
on the rising CRB Index and the surge in the price of oil. Maybe Martin is right. Maybe Midas is right. Stay tuned.
Midas would like all the GATA contributors to know that your contributions are going towards a cause that is history making already. I can say that because we are being fed fundamental information by some of the most informed people in the gold world as a result of the GATA visibility. These people want to help us and want GATA to succeed. As a result of that information, we put out our "major gold rally imminent" bulletin last Wednesday. Since that bulletin, gold has closed higher every day. The shorts
know that we are coming and all our efforts is already having some effect in their thinking. For future reference, remember this Reuters-March 8- notation-"One of the American houses has been buying substantial amounts. It
looks to me like a mine buyback," said one.


Midas
Bill Murphy ( Midas )
After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the 1998 Gold Book Annual.
Disclaimer notice: Midas du Metropole does not look like an investment advisor, nor is he one. Any comments about any gold and silver shares by Midas or any of the Cafe members are for your information and entertainment only. They should not be regarded as advice and should be treated like
comments passed on at any other Cafe. We are only relating as to what we like for our own accounts.
====
WOW He still must be in great shape as he sure is long-winded !!
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/09/1999; 23:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3171)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
The King's Council of Wisedom is reviewing the wealth of information brought forth during the five days past.

In the meanwhile, I should like to direct your attention to an update to these fair pages. Commentary from World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley is to be found as "WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (March 1 - March 5, 1999)."
Follow the links via the USAGOLD Home Page to This Week in Gold.
Aristotle
(03/09/1999; 23:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3172)
Reply to Goldfly (& Richard)
Goldfly--"Aristotle, A subject that perks up ones ears...
But define 'A very high price.'
$400? $500? $800? Four figures? Five?"

$1,200 seems like a reasonable place to start.

Richard, I'm preparing responses to your questions. I'm glad you are not accepting this info at first glance, because we can't have a dialog with only one side represented. Even though you said you are largely in agreement, a small degree of devil's advocacy is good for us all. Helps to sharped the thoughts and better account for the many variables. ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 01:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3173)
April gold now $293.00, firming
TA shows gold volume increased well above norm for last seven weeks with this week and last two, then six weeks ago and seven being the highest volume yet. Trading appears to be like a stock under heavy accumulation now. Stochastic, MACD, Relative Strength index, and On balance volume all show bullish indications. But the real kicker is the weekly bollinger shows that over the course of the next six weeks gold should extend up to its upper weekly bollinger that now sits at $301.
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 01:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3174)
Reply as promised to Richard...the projected value of the unit called "dollar"
[So you believe that ALL the physical cash will be hoarded, not 'spent' at all? I'm a small business owner and this would be disastrous, in all likelihood. I hope withdrawn cash would still be spent and you'd just go to the bank each day/week for your allocation.--R.]

Richard, this is a good example of Gresham's law in action, with the physical cash playing the role of the strong currency. When somebody enters your business to engage in a transaction, given a choice (as they would have if they pulled their cash early from the bank while still maintaining a checking account--like from a direct-deposit salary paycheck), they would opt to spend the electronic money and sit on the physical cash for a rainy day (post-2000). The very reason they pulled this cash from their accounts to begin with was in anticipation of the rainy-day need. And sure, if they completely DRAINED their accounts and had no other means with which to pay your bill, they would have NO CHOICE but to use their physical cash. You, in turn, would likely sit on it for similar reasons. Or the next guy would, etc.
And to your last point...if there was a weekly allocation to be had, it would be 'hoarded', while you spent the digital account-money to meet your needs during the remainder of 1999, with the goal likely being not to have any left at risk in the account during the rollover to 2000. Many people have this as a legitimate concern.

"The real economy will not slow down this year as many of the experts have predicted. Real goods will be in demand as never before. So here you sit, watching as the physical cash loses its purchasing power while all this digital money sloshes about."--A. [This seems to be a prime statement (loses its purchasing power) you are basing all the rest of your thoughts on, yes/no? I ask, why will it lose it's purchasing power?--R.]

Richard, remember that this is all founded upon best conjecture. No absolutes. I could be wrong, certainly. But with ET on my side, what would be the odds of that? :-) YES, the argument is built upon the premise that the dollar-unit as a medium of exchange will lose its purchasing power based on the law of supply and demand. During the remainder of 1999, lots of dollars in the world (of limited use when you are trying to secure your future well-being in REAL terms) will be chasing around a small supply of generators, food, fuel, and other supplies deemed vital to the task at hand (survival?) The suppliers of these limited goods will be able to "name their price"! and hence, make the dollars lose purchasing power. What will the Govt do during this time? They are a big participant in the real economy, and they will be competing for goods also. They sure won't hesitate to spend into the red during the duration of 1999--they do so every year! If the timeframe were longer, you would likely see the appearance of ever larger denominations of currency as in Germany from 1919-1923, particularly the final year. But that's another issue. To answer your question directly, people won't want the money, they will want the things that money will buy--at any cost! And when beanie babies are the only things left on store shelves, this soon-to-be-ZAPPED digital money still in accounts will be directed in huge amounts toward anyone willing to take the final gamble and part with some of their gold to risk having this seemingly huge digital dollar 'profit' possibly survive the Y2K glitches. Tangibles will be king. Shop early!

[If we lose power, most businesses will be closed. No heat, computers, AC, freezers, etc. I'm NOT convinced major problems will arise because of the severe need for service, ie. hospitals, nursing homes, groc stores.--R.]
I would like to share your optimism, Richard. I some measure I do. However, wanting something and having it be so are not always paired as we would like. During the Ethiopian famines, there was a "severe need" for all that you mentioned, and yet people died. Apples and oranges, I know...but it kinda makes my point.

"But again, how much respect can you have for a buck that just a short time earlier lost its purchasing power?"--A. [Why?? Maybe I'll have $10k in cash and will spend it. If digital is down, are you saying businesses won't take my cash?? If I'm open, I'll take cash in my store. A sale is a sale, period. This would allow me to pay MY employees partially in cash so they can buy what they need, in cash. Pass what there is along.--R.]

Ok, Richard, we must both be clear that with digital money down, we are assuming we are now on the other side of 2000 and this horrendous competition for real goods has come to pass--with all the price inflation it portends. As a shop owner, if you were selling cans of soup during late 1999 for $50 per can, accepting checks, credit cards, or paper cash; why would your frame of mind allow a shift back to pre-panic prices? Tangibles would still be king. The dollar-unit as a viable medium of exchange has just been tossed upon the growing scrap heap of failed fiat world-currency experiments. Thirty years... not a bad run. Many expected much less!

"If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets."--ET [How and/or why??--R.]
" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed."--ET [This would be BAD for all business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.--R.]

Richard, I don't mean to horn in on ET's territory, but I've got a fine answer for you. Not many hours ago, our tireless TownCrier posted some news that contained this revealing article (see below). I suggest everyone read it as it presents some stark parallels between the going-down-in-flames Ecuador Sucre, and the seemingly invincible U.S. Dollar. The state of the banking system becomes everything to the viability of the currency. And that system is about to be tested in an unprecedented fashion. That might explain why at this early juncture, the U.S. Mint is already rationing P.M. coins out of necessity. Too many people have already "read the road ahead."

{{HEADLINE: Currency board idea for Ecuador sets off debate--March 9 (Reuters)
Revealing comments into the nature of money--Town Crier}}
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990309/bek.html

I hope this proves helpful, or stimulates additional focused attention on this important matter. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 01:46:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3175)
SteveH, about your post just on the other side of 'War and Peace' here
I can totally see what you are describing and forecasting, and by which means. What I would like to know is this:
What happens to the 'Rules' that the technical traders live by when unprecedented forces come into play? I mean, with the thin supply of REAL GOLD (the kind you can fret over when it finds itself in your OTHER pocket), any degree of movement by the multitudes of regular folks into a gold-buying mood will destroy all technically driven buy and sell signals that the pro's use. Just like the internet stocks. Look at how many 'experts' lost their shirts by shorting them when they got 'too high too fast.' They kept going up, ever faster. And when the techies capitulated and covered their losing shorts, it drove the prices ever higher still.
Now, just think about the huge short position that gold is starting out with.

I think I speak for a friend when I say, "Got gold?" ---Aristotle
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 05:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3176)
Aristotle
The scenario you describe would technically look like a very large bounce or gap in the chart then it would likely restart to be techically analyzable, but I know of know way to see ahead for such an event. I think folks are starting to go long gold as is evidence by the April contract numbers over the last seven weeks though.

It is ironic how it took gold two days to go five points up and 40 minutes to go down two. You might say it got Sach(ed).

April gold rising and am expecting $295 today again (depends on NY though). Currently $293.30, asking $293.50. $294.00 before NY maybe.
JA
(03/10/1999; 09:08:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3177)
Backlash
You didn't hurt my feelings, I was actually pleased to be in good company. While silver is above 5.10 now it still may have to retreat a little more before a move up. Of course If I were good at projecting commodity prices I would be wealthy. I typically tell people if you want to make lots of money in your investments do just the opposite of what I do and you will do just fine.
USAGOLD
(03/10/1999; 09:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3178)
Today's Gold Market Report: What's Morgan Stanley Up To? Could Chinese Central Bank Gold Purchases Turn Out to Be THE STORY in the Gold Market in 1999
MARKET UPDATE (3/10/99): Gold tracked sideways this morning apparently
attempting to catch its breath after the strong effort required to blow through the 292 upside
resistance figure. One of our sources* tells us that when gold hit the $295 figure, J.Aron in
New York was a "big seller." According to the same source the "major American bank
buying gold" referenced in gold reports the past few days is none other than Morgan
Stanley.

What should we read into this?

Over the years J. Aron has consistently led the charge in shorting gold, so this is nothing
new. It suggests, however, that the shorts are not ready to throw in the towel as some have
suggested. It is interesting though that on the other side of the equation, Morgan Stanley is
covering, and the big question in the gold market is "who are they representing?"

If you recall Morgan Stanley had been instrumental in persuading emerging nation central
banks to lease their gold. Are these same central banks now asking for their gold back in the
wake of the Asian contagion that has swept through those economies? Mr. Insider tells us
that the rumors circulating the floor with respect to Morgan Stanley range from covering for
an Asian central bank to the possibility of a large hedge fund covering. We go with the
former. We are uncertain of Morgan Stanley's role -- or if they even had one -- in the hedge
fund/gold carry trade debacle. As I recall they were not one of the banks involved in the
LTCM bailout. (If anybody has information to the contrary, please e-mail me and I will
clarify the matter here tomorrow.)

Gold market analysts will be watching to see if the short covering continues or if what just
transpired turns out to be an isolated event. Our guess is that with the changing tenor in the
gold market, there could be considerable covering in the future, as long as the strong
physical off-take continues. Physical offtake sets off all sorts of warning bells with the
shorts and there is little doubt that those short the market have still not shaken off the effects
of the inverted market of a few weeks ago. They have become ultra sensitive and that is why
the market did not take a dive yesterday when Aron led the bear charge. There was not much
follow through. In prior episodes, gold simply gave up and collapsed. This time it didn't.

In other gold news Bridge News passes along a Financial Times report that "China has been
told by a senior official at the national gold bureau that it should triple the ratio of gold held
in its foreign exchange reserves. The official argued China's reserves have become
excessively bloated with US dollars." Whether or not this revelation is tied to the reports
from Mr. Insider, we will leave to your discretion, but word travels quickly in gold circles
and nothing concerning the glittering yellow metal happens in a vacuum.

April gold hit $295.30 yesterday before selling off to close at $293.40. The rest of the week
should be very interesting. We invite you to stay tuned. Have a good day, fellow
goldmeisters.

*This new source for USAGOLD is actually an old friend of ours in the gold industry -- a
relationship that stretches over a fifteen year period. This individual knows everybody
who's anybody in the gold industry especially on the trading end. He has kindly consented
to becoming a regular source for this report. We will call him Mr. Insider.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 09:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3179)
MK's Mr. Insider -- and OUR OWN "Mr. Chartist"
Steve was right on the money again !! At 10:52 the APR Au broke out of the tight contraction of the Bol Bands and start its UPWARD movement !! WOW, with these two watching the "shop" all the Hobbits will have to do is debate with The Stranger and Aristotle as to the fine interpetations of the details. This is much more fun than watching the "boob tube" about the "Pres and Monica". Spoke today with a small business woman in Brazil about the devaluation of the Real and the doubling of value of an oz. of Au. She says that things are completely closed in the imports of goods and everyone is crossing their fingers. Reminds me of July + six months in 1997 Thailand !! Should we all be seeing these actions as precursers to what the future may be in the USA ?? Remember the old adage, "If one does not learn from history ---"
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 11:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3180)
From fringe to fad --
--- in one contest weekend. The hundredth monkey theory may have no scientific basis in fact but it seems to be operating in this instance. I mentioned Monday night, as our weekend event moved along, Y2K news Items started popping up like mushrooms after rain.Now our regional lumber chain just sent a notice for a major trade show with one of the seminars being "Y2K And You. Insure that your equipment and capabilities are compliant. A discussion on the potential impact of the year 2000 on your business and you."

The subject of the Internet fringe has now gone mainstream. America "99, having no "Everybody's doing it" game (other than the market) is jumping on this with both feet. I predict we are on the threshold of a new growth industry. Self sufficiency.



Michel! I"ll bring up the subject of P.M. coins, I imagine it's not yet on their agenda. (It's next Tuesday)
USAGOLD
(03/10/1999; 13:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3181)
Test
Just a test
KJS
(03/10/1999; 13:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3182)
Alan Greenspan: Old vs New

Will the Real Alan Greenspan Please Stand Up:

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/1999/march/greenspan.htm

www.capitalismmagazine.com/1999/march/greenspan.htm


Farfel
(03/10/1999; 13:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3183)
What's It All About, Alfie???? To Buy or Not to Buy GOLD.
I had breakfast with an extremely wealthy fellow today. He surprised me by calling me out of the blue a week ago and extending the invitation. He has strong ties to the Clinton government and various homes in the US and Switzerland. The subject of our discussion was a charity I had been involved with several years back (although I have since dissociated myself from the organization). As a member of the long suffering" gold investors' league, I will confess that I am not quite as charitable as I used to be. He asked me to breakfast in order to pick my brains about a project I suggested the charity pursue several years back. At that time, my proposal was summarily rejected but I was surprised how well he remembered it. Anyway, despite the VERY early morning hour, I agreed to meet with him.

Of course, whenever I meet with any businessman, it is usually inevitable that I will move the topic to gold at a certain point. Much to my surprise, the fellow informed me that he is a player in the market and has actively shorted gold for the past three years. He claimed to have made an EXTREMELY hefty sum, especially since he used the proceeds for a lot of hi-tech investment. When I asked him to explain how he knew to pursue such a profitable strategy, he did not answer, instead changing the subject.

Before breakfast ended, this time HE raised the subject of gold. He told me that "confidentially" it was time to bu gold and to do so in a very big way.

I expressed my doubts, noting the obvious, unrelenting government interference in the market and the Greenspan-Rubin duo's obvious desire to maintain the equities/bond bubbles and suppress the price of gold at any cost. Although I acknowledged that Y2K concerns are pushing gold sales higher, I imagined that US government intervention would ensure that gold's upspike would be limited and capped. From my perspective, although I had been a feverishly strong gold bull at one time, it now seemed the only logical strategy is to wait for the anti-gold Clinton regime to disappear before making a notable move into gold again.

He glared condescendingly at me as though he were listening to the thesis of a mere school child and he said, "Listen very closely...I can't tell you any specifics but gold is going to kick ass really soon and the move will blow your mind away. It has nothing to do with Y2K or any of that crap. The only guys preaching the Y2K BS don't know a damn thing about what's really happening in the market."

With that declaration, he grabbed the cheque, pulled out his credit card, and I realized our breakfast was over.

I told him that unless I knew the specific reasons why gold would go up, I did not see myself increasing my gold investments to any notable degree since I believed I would be asking to get my own "ass kicked."

As he got to his feet, he looked me dead in the eye and said (and I am only paraphrasing), "I'll tell you this much and it's true about today's gold market...when you have a business partner you've depended on for many years and you've been successful, then it's like a great love affair. But if one day you discover he's lying to you about everything and you're gonna end up the fall guy, then if you're really smart, you never show any anger. You just act as though everything's the same. You keep smiling at him every day, you continue doing business together as if nothing's changed, you never disagree on anything, you and the family go visit him and his family on weekends, and then when he least suspects it, then you go out and you cooly and quietly f__k him in the ass."

Although I have some theories, I still can't figure out the meaning of his message. It's been bugging me all morning.

Anybody have any suggestions?
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 13:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3184)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Platinum Suffers From Technical Weakness
New York-March 10-FWN--Platinum futures finished
sharply lower here today in a market that appears to be
suffering from technical weakness, with some sell stops
hit.
Otherwise, the precious metals complex was described as
relatively quiet, with gold continuing to consolidate above
an upside breakout level breached early this week, perhaps
getting a slight lift upward from weakness in the U.S.
dollar, sources said.
April gold added 80 cents to $294.20.
"Gold was just consolidating for the third day above
its technical breakout," said one trader, referring to a
surge on Monday when prices moved above $290.
"It's very range-bound. We have an options expiration
Friday, and until then we should stay between $290 and
$295."
Another trader commented that a softer U.S. dollar may
have helped gold futures some today. The dollar is down 1.25
Japanese yen at Y119.88.
May silver added 2.8 cents, but overall the metal was
described by one dealer as having "lost its luster."
"It's been abandoned; all the focus is on gold right
now," he said.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 14:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3185)
Bridge Gold News
NY Precious Metals Review:
Apr gold and May silver both saw an inside day, amid quiet and
lackluster trade. Apr gold's 80c uptick was somewhat positive, said traders,
noting that it could be consolidating before it repeats the rallies seen Monday and Tuesday.

London--Mar 10--China has been told by a senior official at the national
gold bureau that it should triple the ratio of gold held in its foreign
exchange reserves. The official argued China's reserves have become
excessively bloated with US dollars, UK national newspaper the Financial
Times reported today. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .14205

Tokyo--Mar 10--Profit-taking depressed spot gold following the overnight
late slip in the US market although a generally bullish sentiment prevented
a sharp drop in prices in Asia, dealers said. Heavy profit-taking on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange continued to weigh on spot platinum with no fresh
supportive factors. By Hiroyuki Fujiwara and Polly Yam in Hong Kong, Bridge
News, Story .2200

Frankfurt--Mar 9--Total gold assets registered by the European Central
Bank system were unchanged at 99.589 billion euros on Mar 5 compared with
the previous week. In its weekly financial statement, released today, the
ECB also said that euro-zone central bank foreign currency assets stood at
223.7 billion euros on Mar 5, down 1.5 billion euros from the week before.
Bridge News, Story .782

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 14:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3186)
Farfel's breakfast meeting comments
Please Farfel, remind me to NEVER play cards with you !!
<;-)
nugget101
(03/10/1999; 14:46:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3187)
Farfel
It appears to me that he might be referring to US foreign economic policy. Perhaps the rest of the world (europe, asia, mid east?) have felt that they have been forced to buy treasuries and dollars and now are prepared to sink the dollar. Perhaps by forcing the US to spend gold reserves to prop up the currency.

As an aside. The Discovery channel is having a story about Fort Knox tonight. Coincedence? Or are we subtly being fed a line that the US financial situation is solid? Think we will see piles of gold? I don't think so.
backlash
(03/10/1999; 14:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3188)
JA and Farfel

JA,

'tis I who feels honored to be in the company of one who possesses such fine knowledge. Does that mean that I may indeed be your squire in this contest most honorable?


Farfel,

A little tale to add to your post #3183 of a while ago.

Many years ago, my brother and I went to a racetrack (horse) for the first time. While there we ran into a man who was friends with my boss and I knew him to frequent the track very regularly. Likewise, it was known to me that he was "in" with the track and horse owners.

After a few amenities, we (being dumb as rocks at this) asked him for advice on betting. He rather dodged the query and chatted about other subjects for a minute. Then as he was leaving, he leaned over to the race sheet we had on the table, pointed to one particular horse in just one race and "suggested" that that was the only one he would waste any time on, and promptly walked away.

That horse was not particularly a long shot, but was well down on the tote sheet and presented rather a substantial payoff. Certainly not one that anyone would pick other than as a WAG. Guess what! You bet, a win ticket on that horse paid something on the order of 50:1.

No way in reason for that to have happened without some sort of previous knowledge. We did not see him the rest of the day.

Your tale has, to me, some very similar circumstances to my experience, and with a person of "inside" knowledge.

You asked for suggestions. TAKE MUCH HEED TO HIS COMMENTS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. Thank you for sharing that experience with this table round. I think that prognostications from this forum are about to come true. What to do?

***** BUY ALL THE GOLD YOU CAN GET YOUR HANDS ON *****


By the way, is there any chance that the 'business partner' your acquaintance alluded to as having lied could possibly be Uncle Bill?

Mike, you might well get ready for a landslide of business.

Best Wishes, bl
Voyager
(03/10/1999; 14:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3189)
Origional Forum Lurker
Gentlemen of this Fabulous Forum. I wish to thank all of you for your gold education. Being only an infant goldmiester (almost one year), the gold world is a far more complex than I ever imagined. In the 70's, I considered gold but did not have the knowledge or courage to make the move. However, I have been waiting since for another opportunity. Last year, thanks to the assistance MK, I "GOT GOLD". My question to the forum is what would you consider as the best asset allocation between gold, stocks/bonds, business, and personal assets? I very much liked the opinion that the market does not have to crash for gold to appreciate. P.S. When do you guys sleep?
The Stranger
(03/10/1999; 15:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3190)
Okay, Farfel....how 'bout this?
What a great post. Now we can all spend the rest of the evening mulling this mystery. Anyway here is my interpretation:

Start with awknowledging that "Alfie" has been a lot smarter than you have been lately. (That's OK, he's been a lot smarter than I have been, too). If so, then accept that, in his mind (and mine, too), your premise about:

..."the obvious, unrelenting government
interference in the market and the Greenspan-Rubin
duo's obvious desire to maintain the equities/bond
bubbles and suppress the price of gold at any cost"...

is FALSE.

Greenspan and Rubin are both very bright men, far more concerned with their place in history than in maintaining some hairbrained conspiracy that could never succeed anyway. The great frustration for both of these men is that they labor for a president who has taken credit for everything they have done, though he only went along with their policies for reasons of political expediency. (And this doesn't even consider how he has disgraced them with his personal behavior.)

There is only one secret I know that Grnspn/Rbn keep from the world, and it goes to what Alfie meant about the coming rally being much bigger than Y2K. That is the secret about the intentional return to higher inflation and rising interest rates. All of this is happening right when we are set to begin the next presidential election. Reinflation may be right for the world at this juncture, but it will preclude a Gore presidency. And, though Clinton might have normally been expected to participate in such policy, he's not getting that consideration this time. As Alfie might say, they are just going to f--k him in the a--.

As to the ostensible conspiracy to suppress gold prices, I would point out that the yellow metal hasn't behaved any worse than the rest of the commodity universe.

But, let's take heart, the worm has turned. Since Feb.26, energy prices have risen 11.8%. Grain prices have gone up 8%. You see, Farfel, to EVERYTHING there is a season, and that includes inflation. Your mistake with gold, if you made one, was in staying married to it.

That's one interpretation, anyway.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 16:10:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3191)
OILS relationship to GOLD
Oh, how I wish ANOTHER or FRIEND OF ANOTHER could help right now with there insight into this subject!!!
The New York Stockmarket hit a new all time high today:
Today's rally was driven largely by the OILS and the financials.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310149html
Gulf Arab producers said they favored a big cut in production.Oil producing countries could trim output and mop up a big glut.
At the local gas stations near my house,unleaded regular shot up 9 cents a gallon today.During the great Gold runup of the late 1970's,gasoline prices shot up at the same time Gold skyrocketed.Gold has started to act bullish,right now.
Could the recent meeting of the Gulf Arab Producers also have discussed an OIL for GOLD payment plan?????


NUGGET 101--Can't get discovery channel where we (live in the sticks no cable here)keep us informed about the Fort Knox Gold here.Thanks In Advance.

Mr.FARFEL could my post have anything to do with your meeting today.Also I like the:I don't care I'm buying more,themesong you initiated.............beesting
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 16:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3192)
Keep your fingers crossed
Nice start in Asia with spot up 20 cents.

Farfel I'll be right back, heavy thought's need spell-check.
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 16:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3193)
GC9J -- Apr Au -- Afterhours trading
Looks good so far as is back to the top of today's trading range. BUT, the surprise is the SIZE of the Ask -- OVER 100 contacts !! Looks as if someone does not want GC9J to move very much without some MAJOR action.
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3194)
Farfel
It may be that for gold to have been brought so low there had to be a global insider agreement not to buy any until "the word" is given. But, somebody's cheating and the game's afoot. I still believe that to two biggest secrets in the financial world, are the REAL reasons that gold has been so low and the market so high.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 17:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3195)
The Big Guys Don't Trust Each Other.
Disclosure rules for Central Banks.
IMF,BIS eye rules on FOREX disclosure.
http:www.barney.co.za/reuters/mar99/forex10.htm

Comment:Wouldn't it be nice if investors knew what was going on also.Isn't that what capitalism is all about???Investors help mega-corporations get started by lending money thru the purchase of corporate paper,get informed on minor matters,then when behind the scenes discussions are made public,get left holding worthless or partially worthless paper if the actions taken effect the corporation in a negative way. We have a saying in the U.S."Whats Good For The Goose Is Good For The Gander Too." Which translates into:The largest investors should experience just as much RISK as small investors...............beesting
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3196)
Better English
Man does not make sense by spell-check alone.

I still believe that the two biggest secrets in the financial world are; the REAL reasons why gold has been so low, and the market so high.
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 17:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3197)
Better
Spot now + 45cents @ 7:10 PM EST.
beesting
(03/10/1999; 17:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3198)
I wish that guy ...beesting would speak more clearly.


In my last post I was refering to the IMF as a lender that should suffer risk exposure,of course they obtain their investable funds,in a much different manner than ordinary investors..TAXATION................beesting
Phoenix
(03/10/1999; 17:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3199)
motto for mo
don't get mad,
GET EVEN!

Got gold?
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 17:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3200)
Good evening all.
Fort Knox story on 8:00pm EST.

April gold now $294.50.

Frankly it is beginning to seem like the real thing. Lots of separate and similar indicators pointing to longs having their way with gold finally.

TA shows, especially on daily chart, that she is tracking up the upper bollinger. Gold seems poised for two four-day back to back up days, making tomorrow the eigth day. That aside, as long as she is tracking up and not moving sideways we are breaking new ground (yes I know that is obvious). It is a question of momentum now. Today's volume on April futures is most recent highest yet. Momentum has broken out of it pattern, sitting at 5.8. Stochastic is only two-thirds of the way to its turning point. Relative Strength index (RSI) is also breaking out of its long-term trend and with a positive angle of significant proportion. The MACD shows a .87 divergence (blue over red), this is not often seen. The historical MACD is almost off the chart or least highest seen on my chart in a while. And the On Balance Volume is showing accumulation extraordinaire. I see $296 tonight, on New York in the morgan (not the dollar), $298??

She is tracking a new high. It is different now.
**GOLD GOBBLER**
(03/10/1999; 18:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3201)
REPLY TO FARFEL - MSG ID 3183
Regarding "La Farfalla" Farfel's Alfie post,

It was a pleasure reading it and all your posts here at USAGOLD (including all your past posts at Kitco).

My first impressions are:

1. Alfie **respects** your views on the Gold market. So, I agree he was "picking" your brain, NOT for views on your charity project, but on Gold. Your project 3 years ago that was trashed is just like your forecast of Gold 3 years ago which was also trashed. He wanted you to understand that.

2. Gold has not changed hands among the big players. To the sheep of the fold, it appears that Gold has moved from the "BIG" fish to the "LITTLE" fish. The goal was always to accumulate more and more AU at the lowest possible prices. In reality and in truth, it is the LITTLE fish who sell their gold to the BIG fish.
Gold will rise not because of Y2K, or OIL, or WARS. It will rise when the order is given to recover the gold that has been Leased/Shorted through vehicles such as large hedge funds. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUCH HEDGE FUNDS ARE BIG FISH WHO PART OF THE "BIG" SCHOOL OF BIG FISH. THEY WILL DIE HAPPILY KNOWING THEIR BRETHERN DO NOT GO HUNGRY FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

3. The man getting F__Ked up the Ass is Clinton. In time, well after the fiat bubble bursts, history will record WJC as one of the worst Presidents the US has ever had. Right now, we visit WJC with our family. Everything is cosy, just rosy. But the time will come when he gets it real good with a rifle up his A-Hole SIDEWAYS!!!
Voyager
(03/10/1999; 18:07:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3202)
DISCOVERY CHANNEL
"THE REAL FORT KNOX" THE HIGHLY GUARDED FORTRESS HOUSES U.S. GOLD RESERVES. 8:00 PM PST
The Stranger
(03/10/1999; 19:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3203)
Alfie II
How about countries are tired of having American hedge funds destroy their currencies, and the American government (read "Al Gore") vocally supporting the hedge funds' right to do so? Maybe "f---ked up the A--" means dumping dollar bank reserves in favor of gold. Boy, wouldn't that create a rally!

Fox News is reporting tonight that the Clintons left Utah, and Bill went to Central America without Hillary, because, according to friends, they are having marital problems. Friends quote Hillary as saying, "Not only do I not want to sleep with him, I cannot stand to be in the same room with him."

If SHE abandons him, everybody does. Maybe we will get a resignation, after all.
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3204)
Fort Knox
Show interviewed at least two folks (one an ex-Treasury official and other a teanage gold inventory taker) and both said they handled the gold that was 27 lbs heavy per bar and dusty. The ex-Treasury official said he has even stood on the gold. Great shots of M1-A1 tanks too. $294.60 for April gold now.
Richard, Oregon
(03/10/1999; 19:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3205)
Aristotle, Just Some Comments
Aristotle 3/8 #3136 - You said "What's silver, eh? I've never found much use for the stuff, although it sure polishes up like nothing else on earth. I have a silver ring I am partial to, but that's about as far as it goes." I guess you missed Gandalf's post last week on his 1981 experience. Ash him for the story or post #.

Aristotle (3/10/99; 01:31:22MDT - Msg ID:3174) I must have left my comments a work so I respond later.
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3206)
April gold now $294.70.
Asking $294.80. Peter, Gandalf you folks awake?

SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3207)
An elliott wave view
from kitco:

Date: Wed Mar 10 1999 19:44
Cobra (Wave Update................) ID#34459:
Copyright � 1999 Cobra /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Have had a chance to look at the hourly XAU and the April and June AU futures, Today may have been the last opportunity to pickup AU and not have to chase it. AU and the XAU had traced out 5 waves up from March 1st until 11 AM yesterday and then it looks like a very nice ABC correction on the hourly charts since 11 AM yesterday through 3 PM today.
This may have been all the pause we will see before an all out assault begins on $300.00 AU Immediately. XAU and AU firmed nicly at the close today. Wave one advanced aproximately $7.00, wave 3 could do at least 1.618 times wave one ,or up to around $303.50 initialy. If we are going to see a 3 wave, we will recognize it without a doubt. I think we will see AU $320.00 before the first serious interuption later on. From my work, Two closes over $303.00 and we are in a real bull market again.
CoBra
SteveH
(03/10/1999; 19:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3208)
Oil leading gold higher (and DOW too, if you can believe it)
China rumors of tripling their gold reserves. Hmmm.

From the press:

Energy Rally Helps Lift Dow Industrials 79.08 To Record High


NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 climbed to new highs Wednesday as energy stocks rallied on hopes that major oil producers will agree to cut output to bolster weak oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79.08 to end at 9772.84, eclipsing the record close of 9736.08 set last Friday. The Chicago Board of Trade's Dow industrials March futures contract settled up 107 points at 9797.

Among broad-market measures, the S&P 500 climbed 7.00 to end at 1286.84, four points above the closing high set Monday. The NYSE index rose 3.55, the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 13.06, the Amex index gained 3.69 and the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks added 1.92.

On the Big Board, advancing issues outpaced decliners 5 to 4 on moderate volume of 833 million shares, while Nasdaq gainers edged losers by 12 to 11 on 936.7 million shares traded.

Bond prices were lower, pushing the benchmark 30-year Treasury's yield - which moves opposite to the price - up to 5.55% from 5.53% late Tuesday. The dollar fell about 1 1/4 yen and about 1/2 cent against the euro.

Among global markets, Japan's Nikkei index surged 2.5% to close above 15,000. Hong Kong finished with a 2% gain and Brazil's Bovespa index rebounded more than 3%.

Oil issues rocketed higher as reports from the Middle East pointed to more production cutbacks by oil-producing nations, sending crude-oil futures well above $14 a barrel. Halliburton jumped 4 3/16, while BP-Amoco, Chevron, Exxon, Mobil and Schlumberger all climbed about 3 1/4. Shares of Global Industries, an oilfield-services company, surged 1 5/16, or 23%. Atlantic Richfield gained 2 5/8 as Janney Montgomery upgraded its rating to "hold" from "sell."

DuPont was another prominent blue-chip gainer. The stock jumped 3 13/16 after having hit a 52-week low just last week. The chemical giant announced it is searching for partners in the pharmaceuticals industry and said it expects to cement at least one alliance by the end of this year. DuPont also said it will create a so-called tracking stock for its life-sciences business. Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on the stock to "accumulate" from "hold."

Financial stocks gained ground, as speculation about the need for further consolidation among international banks was fueled by BNP's hostile bid for fellow French banks Societe Generale and Paribas - a combination that would create the world's biggest banking group, with assets of more than $1 trillion. J.P. Morgan climbed 3 1/8, Mellon rose 2 5/16, BankBoston added 1 13/16 and BankAmerica rose 1 1/2. Citigroup finished up 1 1/2 as Morgan Stanley raised earnings estimates.

Consumer lender Household International jumped 4 points after saying it plans to repurchase some $2 billion of its stock.

Semiconductor and related issues rebounded after taking a beating Tuesday. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor index ended up 2.5%. Intel rebounded 1 9/16 after tumbling Tuesday on rumors that the company may miss first-quarter earnings projections. Lam Research shot up 4 3/8, or 14%, Texas Instruments rose 2 15/16, Broadcom climbed 2 5/8 and Applied Materials added 2 1/8.

However, software stocks were under the gun as Morgan Stanley Dean Witter downgraded Computer Associates stock to "neutral" from "outperform," citing concerns about near-term demand, a change in its business model and increased competition. CA shares skidded 5 1/16, or 13%, while BMC Software fell 1 3/4 and SAP dropped 1 1/8.

Industry giant Microsoft eased 7/16 as hopes waned that the company will reach a settlement of its antitrust case with the Justice Department.

In the computer sector, Compaq slid 1 3/16 atop the Big Board actives while Dell topped the Nasdaq most-actives list, slipping 3/4. IBM lost 11/16 and Gateway tumbled 5 9/16.

Telecom-equipment maker Northern Telecom jumped 4 points as AT&T selected the company as a potential supplier of advanced voice-switching systems, but rival Lucent Technologies shed 2 5/16 as it launched a $1.36 billion bond offering.

Prominent stocks in the Internet sector drew buyers. Amazon.com climbed 7 3/16, America Online rose 2 11/16 and Yahoo! gained 6 5/16 as Merrill Lynch began coverage of the sector with positive comments. Merrill has a near-term "buy" rating on AOL and rates Amazon.com and Yahoo! "accumulate."

Lycos raced ahead 13 3/4 after BancBoston Robertson Stephens repeated its "buy" rating on the Web-portal company as prospects grow that an alternate suitor to USA Networks may emerge. CMGI, which holds 20% of Lycos, fell 2 3/4.

Among other Internet issues, Go2Net surged another 6 7/8, but CNET gave back 4 3/16 after recent stellar gains and eBay slid another 11 3/16.

Besides the rally in DuPont and the energy stocks, other commodity-dependent Dow components also registered gains. Minnesota Mining jumped 2 11/16, Union Carbide climbed 1 3/8 and Alcoa rebounded a point. Sears Roebuck rose 1 5/16. However, AT&T lost 1 9/16 and Goodyear Tire fell 1 1/4.

Weak outlooks hit several individual stocks hard. PSS World Medical skidded 2 1/4, or 19%, after issuing a forecast for earnings below analysts' expectations. Fluor skidded 4 5/16, a day after it predicted weaker-than-expected fiscal-year earnings and announced 5,000 layoffs. And, a weak outlook from Personnel Group of America sent shares of the staffing-services company down 2 5/8, or 28%.

Copyright (c) 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
TownCrier
(03/10/1999; 20:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3209)
Hear ye! Hear ye! A contest update is at hand!
Good knights of the Round Table!
Word has reached me that the King's chambers are alive with debate among the castle Elders; which contestant uttered the words most replete with virtue? The year 2000 debate was well manned, and the King must assure the accolades are properly delivered. The final pronouncement is scheduled, and will be made Friday at the time the silver arrows may be inspected for the truth of their mark. The King's treasurer's are even now preparing the precious metals for transfer to the rightful new owners. We await the appointed hour together!
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 20:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3210)
Steve
Right here! Spot was @ +.60 an hour ago, but GCJ9 is showing 150 ask @ 294.8 -- Well, spot wags the futures; doesn't it?
Aristotle
(03/10/1999; 20:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3211)
Goldfly & Richard
Richard, I'm sorry if my message in question came across as disparaging silver. Not my intent. The operative word was "I've"...me, and no other. "I'VE not had use for it." (I'm gold to the core) That is not to say silver is without virtue, and of benefit to others. My oldest friend loves the stuff and uses it accordingly...and yet I've seen his thoughts turn lately to gold. "The horses are on the track!" Richard, it is ALWAYS my pleasure to have these discussions.

Goldfly...seems we've managed to shake off a bit of the Y2K discussion (which remains a good topic for additional discussions) and have focused more on the changing role of gold to command a higher price. Let the discussion flow...

As for the past few days, I am once again happy to note that the price of gold is continuing to be treated well in the hands of the 'Strines' (heavily accented 'Australians') and HK's overnight. This is a fundamentally different market than before. It would be too simplistic to expect a languishing price for much longer. ---Aristotle
JA
(03/10/1999; 21:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3212)
Backlash
Your post caused me to do a little research as I was not sure just where the squire fit in the scheme of things as they relate to Knights and Knighthood. I learned from my World Book encyclopedia (as you were already obviously aware) that a squire is basically a Knight in training. I also learned that any knight could bestow knighthood on another. Sometimes men were knighted on the field on battle, but the ceremony usually took place during times of peace.

Religious ceremonies became part of the knighting ceremony when the ideals of Christianity became more closely linked with knighthood. Chivalry was the knight's code of behavior. The code of chivalry grew with the songs of the minstrels. Their poems show that a true knight had faith and a deep love of the Christian religion. He defended the church and was ready to die for it. He loved the land of his birth and gave generously to all.

I have done a little work on researching my ancestry and discovered both knights and kings in several lines, which made a trip through Europe a year ago a little more interesting. I suggested to may wife that maybe I should lay claim to the Tower of London since William the Conqueror who built the inner tower is in one line. Of course thousands of people could make the same claim.

Now days we are fighting a different variety of dragons and I am not sure what it takes to become a knight on this site. I suppose that is up to MK, if I am a knight then I would bestow knighthood upon you. I really suspect I am still a squire and you are likely already a knight.

While I suspect it a mute point I would propose the following. He who has the gold makes the rules which would be MK, however I do not recall a rule that two people can not post the some price, thus if on Friday fate falls on us I would be more than willing to share the prize in the form of silver coin or whatever. If that is not an option, I would hereby suggest to MK that the Prize go to you, since I was fortunate enough to arrive at a projected gold price closest to the price of gold during the last contest. It's only fitting that MK's gold gets disseminated to many.
JA
(03/10/1999; 21:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3213)
Michael
Pertaining to your question of whether Morgan Stanley was one of the banks involved in the
LTCM bailout I do not recall. However I do remember that the Wall Street Journal had an article that not only named all the banks, but also who attended from each bank and where they sat at the table. I didn't keep a copy of the Journal issue, but that would be a place to look.

When reading the above mentioned Wall Street Journal LTCM article, I remember thinking it would be interesting to check how many of the attendees at the meeting were also members of the Council on Foreign Relations? Without knowing I would guess 80 to 100%.

Richard, Oregon
(03/10/1999; 22:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3214)
Aristotle Please!
Aristotle (3/10/99; 20:24:43MDT - Msg ID:3211)
Your message did NOT come across as disparaging silver. I just surmised you found it to not be worth YOUR interest as an investment tool. I took am honored to sit at this Round Table and never take it for granted nor speak ill of those who so freely give of so much.

Aristotle (3/10/99; 01:31:22MDT - Msg ID:3174)
First of all, thanks for your feedback. Re: para #2 - So it is your belief that there will be NO cash available after AOC day (all out of cash). True? Do I remember you or someone guessing mid summer?

Re: para #4 - "The suppliers of these limited goods will be able to "name their price"! and hence, make the dollars lose purchasing power. What will the Govt do during this time?" Why wouldn't PRICE controls be enacted as they were in the '70s?

Re: para #6 - "During the Ethiopian famines, there was a "severe need" for all that you mentioned, and yet people died." So you believe this could possibly happen in say, NYC or Chicago, or LA. Who really knows? I think looting and rioting would be a very big problem if, like you suspect, power is interrupted for any length of time in most cities.

Re: para #8 - Some how in the light of looting and rioting, these could prove to be the smallest of our problems.

Re: the last two paragraphs - your and ET's attitude seem to me (IMHO) to be (ultra)conservative, yes?? Do you believe your scenario will truly play out?? And, if so, would you list the sequence of events in short bullet type statements??
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 22:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3215)
Yes Steve, I am awake.
You must remember that you are three hours ahead of all us out here on the frontier. Just finished watching the Fort Knox show and tank training. SOOOOO, do we all think that the "yellow stuff" is all there and well protected ? What do you think of the LARGE ask size quantities on GC9J ?
Would it not be great to hear from FOA in the near future!!
<;-)
HopeingII
(03/10/1999; 22:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3216)
Michael
Yes, Morgan Stanley is one of the firms involved
in th LTCM bailout.
Peter Asher
(03/10/1999; 23:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3217)
Gandalf
Quote.com shows 63 ask,@294.9 @ 23:00 EST. MRIC shows Last sale @ 00:48 EST at that price
Gandalf the White
(03/10/1999; 23:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3218)
Thanks Peter for the update !
Sure looks as if somebody does not wish to allow GC9J to be at 295. or better in the afterhours trading tonight !! BUT we shall see what happens tomorrow in NY after high noon.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/11/1999; 00:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3219)
Answering a small voice in the crowd
Isn't this the question faced by many these days?

Voyager--
"...the gold world is a far more complex than I ever imagined. In the 70's, I considered gold but did not have the knowledge or courage to make the move. However, I have been waiting since for another opportunity. Last year, thanks to the assistance MK, I "GOT GOLD". My question to the forum is what would you consider as the best asset allocation between gold, stocks/bonds, business, and personal assets? I very much liked the opinion that the market does not have to crash for gold to appreciate."

You are to be congratulated on your patience and timing. Perhaps you are approaching our round table as a master, and not as apprentice? I do not attempt to provide investment advice, but rather set a table that is truly yours for the choosing. If you take a seat with past influence to "Choose the soup, choose the soup!", I have succeeded if I do no more than have you question whether the good stock of yesterday's soup remains in the dish served up today.

I recall a similar dialog many months ago with Yellowbird(?) wanting the answers you seek. My advice remains the same. Invest in your self. Put your resources to work in areas over which you have knowledge and control. You will easily find that personal assets provide expected benefits with low risk. Only you will know what is the limit of your risk tolerance. I assume you work and think each day, attempting to produce in excess of your daily needs. This becomes your wealth. Should you choose to buy shares of company stock, their fate becomes your wealth's fate. If this company is a sure thing to thrive, are you the only person with such knowledge? If information is known to everyone, it becomes useless, as the opportunity is surely past.

Gold is "known" only to an enlightened few. This is good information! You have already discovered gold for a reason. Pursue that reason further in your thoughts. Imagine extremes, act in moderation. Understand that the price of gold will develop independent of the bidding of any man. A higher price reveals the collapse of centrally managed economies, and marks the return of something closer to free and open markets. The dollar is the key agent. When the dollar is not well managed, as revealed by a rising price of gold, the economy cannot be "managed". And as ever, the free market always knows what is best, so this development is to be welcomed. Gold will deliver your wealth safely to the other side.

Bonds will suffer a fate worse than the currency they support, for at the long day's end, it is only the currency you receive, with little flexibility--and loss potential--throughout the wait for maturity. Not all bonds (as with currency) are created equal. Choose wisely, or do not choose at all!

I shall conclude in preparing the table with this small word. Internationally, the falling dollar value of gold and crises of currencies has woken some sleeping giants. There is pain to be recognized, yet more pain to be avoided. Currency has played an active role. Imagine that! What was to be a safety net of a nation's people, the cash savings of life's excess labor and productivity, has become the very net to ensnare them. Enough! Though you do not see it, "Times...they are a'changin'". A new practice is the manner in which some important Central Banks view their gold reserves. The best practice internationally is now to regularly mark the gold value at market. Among others, but notably, the vast EU gold inventory will quarterly receive a revaluation...March 31 being the next such event. A rising value of gold holdings as priced in dollars will do well to support a national currency's virtue, would it not? Though not an ounce more be added to the reserves, the nation becomes wealthier in gold--regaining a measure of freedom from U.S./dollar hegemony.
The U.S. Treasury still values its gold stock at $42.2222 per troy oz. Should we guess the day this policy is altered openly with pomp and circumstance in an attempt at a show of wealth? Or is their something to hide, instead?

got wealth?
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 02:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3220)
News you can Use
HEADLINE: Lawson says ECB unlikely to permit gold sales-- March 11 (Reuters)

Said to help the strength of euro against the dollar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310/bje.html

HEADLINE: Banks Cautioned To Keep Reserves--March 10 (AP)

Regulators warn financial institutions to set aside enough reserves for losses from global financial turmoil
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990310/regulators_1.html

HEADLINE: Public panic seen a top Y2K risk -U.S. experts--March 10 (Reuters)

Experts worry about massive runs on banks, gas stations, mutual funds, and the like...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990310/63.html
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 03:11:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3221)
Jeff
Just in case no one's noticed, we're still on yesterday's cache.
SteveH
(03/11/1999; 03:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3222)
April gold
Now $294.80. Trading in a tight on 30 minute chart from $294 to $295. No clear direction defined. Large offers on the ask but bids seem to onesies-twosies. My take is that partials are being sold and the price is showing remarkable staying power with accumulation taking place. I believe, imo, that gold is staging for next move up. See now ...it just hit $295 while I was writing this. Anyway that is my current take, with this add'l comment now. She has shown a direction. It should track $295 upper bollinger band a bit and do this all over again at a higher level. At some point, if the price continues its upward momentus journey, we should see a large one-day rise or a gap in the charts as shorts start really covering. Will that happen? Volume is the key, volume, volume, volume.

Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 03:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3223)
BEAKOUT ??
GCJ9 295.70 @ 2:01 PST
SteveH
(03/11/1999; 06:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3224)
April gold now
$295.80 and had hit $296.50. Still tracking up.

Peter, NY open will prove interesting, if not exciting.
JA
(03/11/1999; 06:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3225)
Power and influence of Internet
Several at this site have commented on the power of the Internet and it's ability to disseminate information quickly. I would fully concur and as an example of that, I read yesterday where World net Daily is the second busiest site on the Internet with 3-4 million hits a day. For the most part I find the news there to be less filtered than what one finds in the major news media. The Internet may be the fail-safe from Orwell's "1984"

For those who have not frequented the site the address is:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/

JA
(03/11/1999; 06:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3226)
Social Security and the National Debt
I was recently reading an article Social Security written by Ralph R. Reiland, published in the New American that had several interesting quotes as follows.

The Princeton Economic Institute contends that "Under today's terms, if you are under 55 you have a greater chance of being abducted by aliens than ever seeing your first Social Security check."

"There is no Social Security trust fund," explains Investor's Business Daily. "It's a myth. Those extra taxes are spent through the general budget the day they are received; the Treasury just puts an IOU in the "trust fund."

This shell game, while providing a crafty was for politicians to buy votes and gather campaign cash through higher government spending, has left the Social Security trust fund with no real assets to meet future obligations. "If the government was required to show its current unfunded Social Security and Medicare liability, the national debt would be $17 trillion, rather that the $5 trillion," explains Mark Weinberger, former Chief of Staff for the Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform. These unfunded liabilities-money that should have been saved, but wasn't-are the equivalent of $120,000 in debt for every household in American.

The "present value" of these unfunded liabilities, a measure of how much money would need to be invested today to finance future benefits, reports Daniel J. Mitchell, a Senior Fellow in Political Economy at the Heritage Foundation, is $5.2 trillion. "Collecting that much money today," says Mitchell, "Would require imposing tax rates of more than 100 percent on everyone in the country."

While I suspect the above information is not new to members of this round table, it bears repeating. I suspect this does not bode well for the dollar long term. What can the government do but inflate their way out of it? All the more reason to have some retirement money's in gold and gold stocks.

Farfel

I found your breakfast meeting conversation interesting and have some thoughts but will need to wait to put them to writing. I was kind of curious what type of business this person is in and how he knows Clinton? Maybe you can't divulge that!


USAGOLD
(03/11/1999; 08:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3227)
Today's Gold Market Report: Oil, China & Short Covering



MARKET UPDATE (3/11/99): Gold gained momentum today despite recent attempts by
short sellers to drive the market down over the past two sessions giving impetus to the
growing sentiment that gold is gearing up for a breakout. Adding to the positive view on
gold was a Bridge report out of Australia that Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of Britain's
Exchequer, does not expect any significant gold sales by European central banks. This might
be news to some, but it is not news to those who read this Daily Report. Thank you, Mr.
Lawson. Instead of MI-6, try the USAGOLD Daily Market Report. That aside, gold is being
propelled by three major developments: short covering associated with the strong worldwide
physical demand for gold (this spasmodic dog might actually be regaining control of its tail);
rising oil prices in the wake of reports that oil producing countries might actually do
something to save their market; and reports that China might be gearing up to make massive
gold purchases. Reuters reports this morning that funds were buying in Europe. (An
interesting aside: Reuters is now linking gold news with Berkshire Hathaway's page. Has
Warren gone to gold? More precisely, does Reuters think that Warren has gone to gold?) By
the way all of this is occurring with the dollar rising against major currencies.

A comment about last night's Discovery special report on Fort Knox: Don't you think that all
that military hardware is a bit much to protect a barbarous relic that should be stored in the
barn along with the pork bellies and soybeans?

That's it for today. We'll check in with Mr. Insider at some point today and report back later
either this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters

The March issue of News & Views is in the final stages of preparation. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 08:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3228)
News you can use
HEADLINE: Risks rising for U.S. economy, Rubin says--March 11 (Reuters)

Rubin says world situation is not sustainable economically or politically
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/n9.html

HEADLINE: U.S. Trade Deficit Surges to Record--March 11 (AP)

Massive waves of goods for paper threaten backlash
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/trade_3.html

HEADLINE: Ecuador banks seek reopening, strong gov't moves--March 11 (Reuters)

Nervous people want their money out in cash
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/n3.html

HEADLINE: Federal Judge Rules Against Banks--March 11 (AP)

Banks show true colors
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/credit_uni_1.html
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 09:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3229)
Take time out to Surf this webpage !
If you have not been able to visit with folk from around the world that have experienced the drop in value of there national currency, then you should visit this eye opening webpage. Thanks to Prof. Werner Antweiler of the Univ. of British Columbia in Vancouver are charts of most all currencies versus a great number of other currencies and including an oz. of Gold and/or Silver. This allows for some interesting comparisons. Prof. Werner has granted permission to reproduce these charts, provided that the source and copyright are acknowledged. I was intending to show a "montage" of charts depicting the change in amount of local currencies vs. one oz. of Gold, but quickly determined that my computing skill did not equal my intent. SOOOO, I am encouraging all to visit the webpage at "http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html", enter the parameters of chart desired, ( I choose the period from June, 1, 1997 to date, to see from the start of the Thailand devaluation, which was the first of the Tigers to fall.) Once you have set the parameters, you can flip between the different currencies. Very interesting results !! Take a look at what just happened to the Ecuadoran Sucre vs. an oz. of Au !! Also look at surprises like the Israeli New Shekels and of course the Russian Ruble and others.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/11/1999; 10:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3230)
An interesting development
Germany's finance minister, Oskar Lafontaine has resigned.
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 10:38:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3231)
Newsflash--euro rebounds on news
HEADLINE: Euro powers higher vs dollar as Lafontaine quits--March 11 (Reuters)

Rumors that Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had also threatened to resign; currency target zones are kaput.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/zk.html
beesting
(03/11/1999; 10:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3232)
The Sleeping Golden Bull Has One Eye Part Way Open.
Gold has been in a downward trend for 19 years,but all signs point to a reversal.Somebody bought 100,000 shares of Barrick Gold(NYSE ABX)at 18.625 which equals $1,862,000.Could it be a Mutual Fund? Barrick is one of the worlds largest Gold producers.Me,I'm buying physical........beesting
backlash
(03/11/1999; 11:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3233)
JA and Farfel

Re: Squire. You have done well in your research. The Knight in Training (KIT) functions in many ways to support the Knight to whom his support is pledged. Assisting in handling the armor, maintaining the weapons, advising of enemies, and general confidant were but a few of the duties of the squire. Likewise, he was to be ready to step into the fray should the Knight happen to fall in battle.

Though our battle is not on some grassy glade, the enemy and danger are no less imminent I feel. By loss of the economic battles being waged by fiat monies, true wealth and possibly freedom could well be lost also. Yet to quit at a time as this would surely be totally ruinous to the entire world.

As a fellow Knight of this table round or as a squire to serve (and serve well to the best of my ability), I happily stand shoulder to shoulder with all to attend this site to do battle with the forces that would improperly take from the people.


To a second point now. - - Ref.: Farfel's post of his breakfast meeting.

Did I fail to comprehend what was said in the Post? Indeed in my response, I alluded to the possibility the Her Klinton was the one that had lied to his 'business partner' and tried to pose it as a question, not as a fact. In Farfel's post, I saw nothing that said WHO it was. Further, I guess I totally missed the association of "Alphie" to Alan Greenspan. Boy am I dense! Are there not plenty of people in high places that would also fit the criterion of Farfel's story?

There again, is something being read into this that was not there? I, for myself, find it necessary to NOT read into a post that which is not clearly stated. Possibly that is why I miss some things. Oh, well. Farfel, I need some help. I feel I am sinking into the abyss of naivety.

Let us all get Gold and watch what happens.


Best Wishes. bl
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 11:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3234)
Meanwhile, back at the stock market,
The 100 millionth monkey has decided that he will be able to tell his grandchildren "I was there when the Dow hit 10,000."

Maybe this will be the grand climax of a mob psycology agreement which will now flame out at this high altitude, where there's not enough earnings to support share value life.
Terzi
(03/11/1999; 11:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3235)
Main Uptrend Started
Hi everybody! I am new here and I will be happy to share my ideas with you. Please apoligize me for my bad english.

To my opinion Gold has started it's main UP-trend. This trend will at least last 8 months. In few days we may see very SHARP UP MOVEMENTS. Before that happens, a pull back till 292-3 possible.
Terzi
(03/11/1999; 11:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3236)
Main Uptrend Started
Hi everybody! I am new here and I will be happy to share my ideas with you. Please apoligize me for my bad english.

To my opinion Gold has started it's main UP-trend. This trend will at least last 8 months. In few days we may see very SHARP UP MOVEMENTS. Before that happens, a pull-back 'till $292-3 possible.
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 11:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3237)
Misspelling of English words
I hereafter promise to never again snicker at the errors of misspelled works !! "there" is not equal to "their" and the brain is not able to sound the alarm until AFTER the posting is made ! So please do not worry about misspelled words -- just so that the idea gets through -- but if the message is too confusing -- just ask for another version. Thanks all.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/11/1999; 11:59:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3238)
Welcome Terzi
For your info -- the message right after yours was not related to you, BUT my previous message about the Charts. Welcome from afar Terzi !!
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 12:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3239)
Assorted news to help plan your retirement
HEADLINE: US BUDGET: Caps off to Cardinals--March 11, (FT.com)
(Registration required, no charge)

Frank discussion of the budget problems.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q88a02.htm

HEADLINE: German finance minister Lafontaine resigns--March 11, (FT.com)

Commentary touching upon many matters.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q8a026.htm

HEADLINE: German finance minister quits
Euro, analysts cheer Lafontaine's departure--March 11, (CBS.MW)

Summary of details...money and politics.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/germany.htx?source=blq/yhoo

HEADLINE: Treasury Bond Prices Move Lower--March 11, (AP)

A simple primer for those needing a crash course on bonds. Very simple...
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990311/bonds_2.html
The Stranger
(03/11/1999; 13:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3240)
Welcome, Terzi!
Where are you from?
TownCrier
(03/11/1999; 13:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3241)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Firmer; Follow-through Lifts Gold Again

New York-March 11-FWN--Gold futures continued to add to
their recent gains in follow-through buying after a
recent technical breakout, sources said.
Silver futures also firmed, but stopped near the upper
end of its range, in a market that is awaiting the annual
report of Berkshire Hathaway this weekend.
April gold settled with a gain of $1.30 to $295.50.
"A couple days ago we had a nice technical breakout up
through a trendline," said Dave Meger, metals analyst with
Alaron Trading. And that technical strength, which has
prompted fund short covering, is continuing, he related.
This breakout point surpassed earlier this week was
around $290 to $291 in the April futures, he said.
Meger also pointed out that gold has drawn some support
from recent gains in the Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar today
is down 0.42 yen at Y119.36.
Despite the recent gains in gold, said Meger, activity
has not been heavy. Thus, the market will be watching for
the next Commitments of Traders report to see just how much
the funds have gotten out of their short positions, he
continued.
Meger put support for April gold at the overnight
ACCESS low of $294, then $291.50. Support was put at the
overnight ACCESS high of $296.50, which matched the high for
the year so far from Jan. 11, then $298, followed by the
psychological $300 level.

May silver futures added 7.5 cents to close at
$5.343.
The biggest event for the market this week will be the
annual report scheduled for release this weekend from famed
investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, sources have
been saying all week. In February 1998, Berkshire Hathaway
announced it had accumulated 129.7 million ounces of silver,
and the market will be looking for any indications of what
might have happened to this metal.
As for the upcoming Berkshire-Hathaway report, Meger
said, "I really have a hard time believing the market is
going to take whatever he says as very bullish."
If it turns out that some or all of the metal has been
sold, said Meger, this may dash the confidence of bulls.
Players may ask themselves: "If Buffett has sold, shouldwe?"
Some might say that if by chance Buffett should have
sold all of his silver, it will allow the market to go
higher because there will be the potential a Buffett sale
will no longer be hanging over the market.
However, Meger said, because Buffett is viewed as a
reputable investor, "I believe it would be looked at as
negative from the fact that if Buffett doesn't believe it's
going higher, it's probably not."
Later, Meger added: "Probably the best thing for this
market is if he (Buffett) says nothing. That could give you
the idea he is maybe saying nothing because he is either
planning on buying more, or has done nothing with his
position and believes we could still move higher."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
beesting
(03/11/1999; 13:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3242)
Welcome Turzi
The one thing we all have in common is an interest in GOLD,and believe me none of us write perfect English all the time,I'm the worst,just ask my fellow Knights...........beesting
Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 18:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3243)
Silver Coins
Somebody help me with this. What silver coins would one consider worth saving, possibly for the junk silver bags? I thought 1964 and earlier nickles, dimes, quarters, halves, and silver dollars, but I don't think nickels are included. Help!
ReverendJimBaker
(03/11/1999; 18:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3244)
Not so stranger
Stranger, you and I just might have crossed paths before. I think you were confessing your sins. Am I right?

Decent day for gold stocks. POG held very firm. Tomorrow could be interesting with the morning economic report. Inflation, here we come! Back up those bonds!

The fake baker

Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 20:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3245)
Listening In
I believe maybe the second best thing about this Round Table is that you can lean over and listen to the discussion of other Knights. The best would be the experience, expertise, and wisdom of our senior level, most gallant, Knights (you know who you are).

Aragorn III (3/11/99; 00:25:40MDT - Msg ID:3219) - I listened in and enjoyed hearing your views on wealth from Voyager. Many people believe a 10-20% precious metal position is good. I personally have gone stronger. Thanks for your explanation, it's one I'll save as part of my "ABCs". Voyager - MK's "The ABCs of Gold Investing" is a great starter book.
Richard, Oregon
(03/11/1999; 20:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3246)
Y2K Stuff
Something I just remembered - thoughts regarding Y2K.

I obtained a commercial fueling account. It was easy to obtain. They are open 24 hours per day (you can fill up in the dead of night) and they might have fuel (since they cater to the commercial crowd) when/if others don't. Cost is cheaper, diesel in predominant, and you deal directly with digital $s.

Peter A - did you find your propane refrig?
Farfel
(03/11/1999; 20:23:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3247)
Interpreting Mr. Mystical GOLD SHORT's Message
My own interpretation is this (although I EMPHASIZE it is merely a theory based upon a day's meditation chewing over Mr. Mystical Gold Short's "ambiguous" hostile message to me):

I think that some funds have been shorting gold on the coat-tails/advice of other funds or Wall Street institutions (or maybe even the Treasury itself?) for several years now. Owing to the nature of this concerted action, it truly has been a de facto cartel (similar to OPEC). They have been doing this with the understanding that they can make brain dead money (gold carry trade) with essentially zero negative repercussions. The big money, of course, is made in buying bonds and stocks with cheap gold loans. It's been a great, profitable game to date as the DOW near 10,000 proves. Much of this spec money has been obtained from gold loans and yen carry trade.

However, the architects of the gold-carry trade (maybe?) failed to inform other big co-conspirators about the imperative of coming up with the physical gold to cover the short positions...or suggested that it would be NO BIG DEAL to do so in the future. This assurance might have been based on the "guarantee" that most of the major CB's would have disgorged their gold reserves by this date (1999) in some kind of gold SELL PANIC that actually failed to materialize. There has been gold price weakness to date, BUT NOT gold price collapse.

Now, with the developing threat of certain CB's making huge gold purchases over the short-term, these coat-tailers are facing financial ruin??

Moreover, they are discovering that their gold carry trade "mentors" have already moved stealthily into the gold market these past several months to cover their short positions without having the decency to let them know. They are being left to hang out and dry.

So how do you f___k your cheating co-conspirators without drawing attention?"

You assure them that you will be there to support the great equities bubble just as you have always done in the past..but instead, you and several other big market player buddies (who have also been "unknowing" victims of the gold carry scam) orchestrate your own little stealth plan, specifically a MASSIVE ORCHESTRATED SELL PROGRAM into the equities market before your "traitorous" partners-in-crime have a chance to figure out who is doing the selling. Just before you pull this massive sell program, you establish or prepare huge short positions in key sectors and ready your Big Media contacts to blast negative news into the markets. Then, while the equities are collapsing in a huge panic sell, you cover your shorts in the gold markets, going long at the same time, financing all of this spec from the profits you are making from huge short positions in the general equities markets.

The major variable: just how much of Mr. Mystic's gold short position is capable of being covered at a profit? If there is a loss suffered (owing to rapidly escalating gold price on the back of a GOLD PANIC BUY), then do your gains shorting general equities outweigh the gold losses? The net result might be something of a wash for Mr. Mystic...but if nothing else, you succeed in bankrupting your former "partners in crime." aka "F___king them in the ass."

It's a convoluted theory but it is compatible with his advice to buy gold in a big way and dump all non-gold related equities ASAP.

That's all I can come up with. Any ideas from anybody?
Aristotle
(03/11/1999; 20:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3248)
Richard's question
Hi Richard
Ignore the nickels. With exception of a year hear or there, nickels have pretty much always been the same...copper-nickel alloy. The '64 and older dimes, quarters, etc are the silver alloy you're after. I'm sure there is someone here about that could tell you all of the specifics.

Regarding our discussion about cash with ET, you had some additional questions. You asked if the cash would be completely out of circulation on the day the banks drawers were emptied. Yes. As soon as it was perceived to be scarce, it would be saved/stashed and effectively removed from circulation. (Just like those 1964 and older silver coins!) Checks and credit cards would be used instead.

You suggested price controls in the event of an all out spending spree. I have a tough time envisioning that doing anything beyond aggravating the situation. Anything is possible, though.

Projected sequence of events? Well, if we accept that ANYTHING is possible (in terms of Govt intervention/interference in the free market), the only way to do this is with some assumptions in place. You asked if mine and ET's view was 'ultra conservative.' I'd say the conservativism is not so much our position as it is a necessity for predictive purposes...making assumptions that consistent with current realities. If the Govt changes the rules, then all bets are off.
If left to free market operations, I would expect the following to be precipitated by Y2K preparedness operations:
**Increased demand on tangibles...things you want are no longer offered at 'sale' prices. Stores charge 'full' prices, with upward price pressures.
**Banks experience run on cash.
**Spending sprees at stores. Checks and credit cards are the only method of payment.
**Prices climb. Gold price outpaces everything else.
**Shortages of goods that are in demand. Prices rise further.
**Stock market collapses with the falling demand for stock as people seek to move into tangible goods.
**All this prior to Halloween, 1999??
I shall leave the rest to your imagination, and to predicting the variations due to Govt attempts at controlling the free choices of citizens.

I hope this is suitable fodder for additional thought. Thanks for the discussion, Richard. ---Aristotle
Goldfly
(03/11/1999; 20:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3249)
Aristotle

Hey. Sorry to be incommunicado of late as regards your posit of a future high price of gold. Life presses in, and time cannot be bought- even with the coin of our sublime realm. While I'm on the subject of time, I must say that I am amazed at the depth and breadth of the output of this assembly of Equestrian Warriors. I'll echo the question: Do you guys ever sleep?

I would like to flesh out the notion of a high price of gold. Are you aquatinted with the ANOTHER archives? I'm not sure if it was the vaunted ANOTHER or a correspondent who calculated that the price of gold should stand at about $30k. (Does anybody really think that could be in the cards?) I've seen estimates that seem more reasonable stretch from $800 to $5,000. So your $1,200 fits right in there.

What would it mean? Well I know little about economics, so I tend to see thing simply. But I'm not sure that the ordinary commodities would necessarily try to keep up. It depends on what's driving gold at the time. If it is simple dollar inflation then yes everything would rise fairly evenly. On the other hand (Hey! I'm starting to sound like a real economist!) , if it is demand driven, then gold could fly and leave the rest clucking around on the ground.

The demand? Firstly, maybe Y2K. People are starting to get the idea that dollars may not be the ultimate store of value, let alone even function this time next year. But Y2K alone would probably only get us to the $6-800 range. Second, how about calling in some gold leases? That should be good for a BIG round of short covering. Or maybe China will make good on this latest rumor and buy a huge stash of metal. Either of those, coupled with Y2K, would take it to $1200-1600 easy.

Hmmmm, ok, picture this: Now what if we got BOTH of the later factors and on top of that a whole bunch of other CB's start thinking that China is on to something good? Hmmmmmm. Maybe that post in the ANOTHER archive is not too far-fetched. Then add to that a heaping helping of dollar inflation��ho boy��.

Gold? $30K? Wow.

Now, what would this mean to the local economy? Don't know. Except I'll say again that if it were demand driven, then it could be mostly transparent to the man on the street. ("Gee, wish I'da bought me some gold!")

Ok that's it for now. Life is doing another full court press. HTH with the discussion.

GF

PS��Before I posted, I read Farfel's latest. Throw some of that in the mix too��..


SteveH
(03/11/1999; 21:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3250)
April gold still $294.40 but...
in the 10 minute chart it is already moving across from a downward trending lower bollinger, meaning up to $296 or higher from here overnight (of course this is merely a guess based on charting). Gold's channel currently is now $294.20 to $296.20.

from GATA:

Boudewijn Wegerif � "GO GATA"
Moderator GATA Forum
- - - - -
CAN THE U.S. RETURN TO A GOLD STANDARD?
By Alan Greenspan
Published in the Wall Street Journal on September 1, 1981.

The growing disillusionment with politically controlled monetary
policies has produced an increasing number of advocates for a return to
the GOLD STANDARD - including at times President Reagan (the then
President-- GO GATA).

In years past a desire to return to a monetary system based on gold was
perceived as nostalgia for an era when times were simpler, problems less
complex and the world not threatened with nuclear annihilation. But
after a decade of destabilizing inflation and economic stagnation, the
restoration of a GOLD STANDARD has become an issue that is clearly
rising on the economic policy agenda.

A commission to study the issue, with strong support from President
Reagan, is in place. The increasingly numerous proponents of a GOLD
STANDARD persuasively argue that budget deficits and large federal
borrowings would be difficult to finance under such a standard. Heavy
claims against paper dollars cause few technical problems, for the
Treasury can legally borrow as many dollars as Congress authorizes. But
with unlimited dollar conversion into gold, the ability to issue dollar
claims would be severely limited. Obviously if you cannot finance
federal deficits, you cannot create them.

Either taxes would then have to be raised and expenditures lowered. The
restrictions of gold convertibility would therefore profoundly alter the
politics of fiscal policy that have prevailed for half a century.

DISTURBED BY ALTERNATIVES

Even some of those who conclude a return to gold is infeasible remain
deeply disturbed by the current alternatives.

For example, William Fellner of the American Enterprise Institute in a
forthcoming publication remarks "...I find it difficult not to be
greatly impressed by the very large damage done to the economies of the
industrialized world... by the monetary management that has followed the
era of (gold) convertibility... It has placed the Western economies in
acute danger."

Yet even those of us who are attracted to the prospect of gold
convertibility are confronted with a seemingly impossible obstacle: the
latest claims to gold represented by the huge world overhang of fiat
currency, many dollars. The immediate problem of restoring a GOLD
STANDARD is fixing a gold price that is consistent with market forces.

Obviously if the offering price by the Treasury is too low, or
subsequently proves to be too low, heavy demand at the offering price
could quickly deplete the total U.S. government stock of gold, as well
as any gold borrowed to thwart the assault. At that point, with no
additional gold available, the U.S. would be off the GOLD STANDARD and
likely to remain off for decades.

Alternatively, if the gold price is initially set too high, or
subsequently becomes too high, the Treasury would be inundated with gold
offerings. The payments the gold drawn on the Treasury's account at the
Federal Reserve would add substantially to commercial bank reserves and
probably act, at least temporarily, to expand the money supply with all
the inflationary implications thereof.

Monetary offsets to neutralize or "earmark" gold are, of course,
possible in the short run. But as the West Germany authorities soon
learned from their past endeavors to support the dollar, there are
limits to monetary counter-measures.

The only seeming solution is for the U.S. to create a fiscal and
monetary environment which in effect makes the dollar as good as gold,
i.e., stabilizes the general price level and by inference the dollar
price of gold bullion itself. Then a modest reserve of bullion could
reduce the narrow gold price fluctuations effectively to zero, allowing
any changes in gold supply and demand to be absorbed in fluctuations in
the Treasury's inventory.

What the above suggests is that a necessary condition of returning to a
GOLD STANDARD is the financial environment which the GOLD STANDARD
itself is presumed to create. But, if we restored financial stability,
what purpose is then served by return to a GOLD STANDARD?

Certainly a gold-based monetary system will necessarily prevent fiscal
imprudence, as 20th Century history clearly demonstrates. Nonetheless,
once achieved, the discipline of the GOLD STANDARD would surely
reinforce anti-inflation policies, and make it far more difficult to
resume financial profligacy. The redemption of dollars for gold in
response to excess federal government-induced credit creation would be a
strong political signal. Even after inflation is brought under control
the extraordinary political sensitivity to inflation will remain.
Concrete actions to install a GOLD STANDARD are premature.

Nonetheless, there are certain preparatory policy actions that could
test the eventual feasibility of returning to a GOLD STANDARD, that
would have positive short-term anti-inflation benefits and little cost
if they fail. The major roadblock to restoring the GOLD STANDARD is the
problem of re-entry. With the vast quantity of dollars worldwide laying
claims to the U.S. Treasury's 264 million ounces of gold, an overnight
transition to gold convertibility would create a major discontinuity for
the U.S. financial system. But there is no need for the whole block of
current dollar obligations to become an immediate claim. Convertibility
can be instituted gradually by, in effect, creating a dual currency with
a limited issue of dollars convertible into gold. Initially they could
be deferred claims to gold, for example, five-year Treasury Notes with
interest and principal payable in grams or ounces of gold. With the
passage of time and several issues of these notes we would have a series
of "new monies" in terms of gold and eventually, demand claims on gold.

The degree of success of restoring long-term fiscal confidence will show
up clearly in the yield spreads between gold and fiat dollar obligations
of the same maturities. Full convertibility would require that the yield
spread for all maturities virtually disappear. If they do not,
convertibility will be very difficult, probably impossible, to
implement. A second advantage of gold notes is that they are likely to
reduce current budget deficits.

Treasury gold notes in today's markets could be sold at interest rates
at approximately 2% or less. In fact from today's markets one can
construct the equivalent of a 22-month gold note yielding 1%, by
arbitraging regular Treasury note yields for June 1983 maturities (17%)
and the forward delivery premiums of gold (16% annual rate) inferred
from June 1983 futures contracts. Presumably five-year note issues would
reflect a similar relationship. A Risk of Exchange Loss The exchange
risk of the Treasury gold notes, of course, is the same as that
associated with our foreign currency Treasury note series.

The U.S. Treasury has, over the years, sold significant quantities of
both German mark - and Swiss franc denominated issues, and both made and
lost money in terms of dollars as exchange rates have fluctuated. And
indeed there is a risk of exchange rate loss with gold notes. However,
unless the price of gold doubles over a five-year period (16% compounded
annually), interest payments on the gold notes in terms of dollars will
be less than conventional financing requires. The run-up to $875 per
ounce in early 1980 was surely an aberration, reflecting certain
circumstances in the Middle East which are unlikely to be repeated in
the near future. Hence, anything close to doubling of gold prices in the
next five years appears improbable. On the other hand, if gold prices
remain stable or rise moderately, the savings could be large: Each $10
billion in equivalent gold notes outstanding would, under stable gold
prices, save $1.5 billion per year in interest outlays. A possible
further side benefit of the existence of gold notes is that they could
set a standard in terms of prices and interest rates that could put
additional political pressure on the administration and Congress to move
expeditiously toward non-inflationary policies.

Gold notes could be a case of reversing Gresham's Law. Good money would
drive out bad. Those who advocate a return to a GOLD STANDARD should be
aware that returning our monetary system to gold convertibility is no
mere technical, financial restructuring. It is a basic change in our
economic processes. However, considering where the policies of the last
50 years have eventually led us, perhaps there are lessons to be learned
from our more distant GOLD STANDARD past.
The Stranger
(03/11/1999; 21:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3251)
Producer Prices Tomorrow
Well, I see where gold is down about $1.20 this evening. Perhaps it is just hesitation ahead of the PPI. The street is looking for a DROP of .1% supposedly. These forecasts come from people who have more data than I have, but honestly, with oil up 30% lately, how can this be right?

Reverend Jim, you better start praying.
YGM
(03/11/1999; 22:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3252)
@ Farfel
Your breakfast meet has one promise in it for sure. You
have one very well connected person whom you know
made a big pass in shorting Gold, then tuned those profits to tech stocks, and now he likes Gold long in a big way.
So the way I look @ it is, you got probable solid
confirmation from the "Other" side of the playing field on
what we (most) already suspect. Like the Peruvian whom
I earlier exposed @ Gold Eagle forum the trail petered out.
And I added the story to my list of positives for Gold to
move big with all our other (many) signals. We unlike the
Sacketts (La'mour) can't track a trout up a muddy stream.
But it's fun to try.-----YGM
ps. Figured it was about time I used this password & paid
a visit to your good company. Regards to all- I read here
daily to my benefit. G' Nite-
onlychild
(03/11/1999; 23:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3253)
VIP Lurkers
Say fellas, do you suppose that A.G. or other high-ups lurk this site? They might just be reading the scuttlebutt each night before they plan their next move. Wouldn't that be a hoot!
Peter Asher
(03/11/1999; 23:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3254)
Steve --- Richard
Spot just jumped back up to -.60, looking better now.

Richard, the propane fridge is not at the top of the wish list, but I'll check it out when I venture forth from the protection of the deep forest. Thanks for the reference.
YGM
(03/11/1999; 23:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3255)
Gold Eagle forum monitors (if I remember correctly)
25-35 hits a day from Fed. Reserve building. We're all in
the bad books I imagine. GO GATA!
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 00:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3256)
HELP -- JEFF
Looks as if board is not rolling forward to today.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 00:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3257)
OOPS -- my clock must be fast !
Good night all. TGIF !
<;-)
el St.One
(03/12/1999; 01:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3258)
Dow 10,000
Just wondering out loud; when history really does repeat it's self. How poetic it will be if 1966 is repeated. Back then the Dow poked thru 1000 (by around 1%) for the first time but could not hold there, over the next 16 years it attacked 1000 four or five times got as high as 1050 or 1060. Most of the corrections were 40 to 60%. Dow did not go thru 1000 to stay until 1982. Maybe all those 0000 are a magnet, will the polarity reverese again when the market tries to add on an extra digit?

After 1966 it took 16 years to recover and go ahead.

After 1929 it took 24 years to recover.

Question; does anyone know how many of the current Dow 30 stocks were there before 29 crash?

Also same question about 1966.

I would guess less than 50% remain from 1966 and maybe 20% from 1929.
Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3259)
(No Subject)
Aragorn III

Thank you for your thoughts - from a fellow traveler of the pages and paths many times of Middle Earth.

A great question "got wealth?" Last year I began to look at my financial positions from a different perspective and came to the conclusion that nearly all of my wealth was on paper and 1's and 0's in computers.

Up until that point I was not very concerned as I have profited from the stock market over the past 20 years and our family small business has prospered. I had believed generally from the example of Ronald Reagan that our government (president, congress, federal, state, local) actually had in mind the best interest of the American People. Well, with the beginning of the disgraceful, disgusting, and shameless leadership of the wjc era, I soon realized that none of them could give a damn about the people that make this country great.

I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth. As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

Yes, it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in.

STAND FIRM KNIGHTS � ITS TAKES COURAGE TO DO WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN!!



Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3260)
GOT WEALTH?
Aragorn III

Thank you for your thoughts - from a fellow traveler of the pages and paths many times of Middle Earth.

A great question "got wealth?" Last year I began to look at my financial positions from a different perspective and came to the conclusion that nearly all of my wealth was on paper and 1's and 0's in computers.

Up until that point I was not very concerned as I have profited from the stock market over the past 20 years and our family small business has prospered. I had believed generally from the example of Ronald Reagan that our government (president, congress, federal, state, local) actually had in mind the best interest of the American People. Well, with the beginning of the disgraceful, disgusting, and shameless leadership of the wjc era, I soon realized that none of them could give a damn about the people that make this country great.

I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth. As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

Yes, it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in.

STAND FIRM KNIGHTS � ITS TAKES COURAGE TO DO WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN!!



Voyager
(03/12/1999; 01:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3261)
OOPS
Am still getting the hang of this posting. Had to wake up my son to show me how to cut and paste from word.
Aragorn III
(03/12/1999; 03:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3262)
Sir Voyager
"...it is an easy path to follow after one has become enlightened to gold, but from my own experience the mainstream of wall street will do everything possible to hinder and discourage one from discovering where to begin the journey. The reaction from all the brokers/investment advisors was you are nuts to buy gold, and did their best to talk me out of making the biggest financial mistake of my life. This discussion is still on going as they are firmly committed to reminding me of all the dangers there in."

So, I see that it is indeed as I suspected...'Choose the soup, choose the soup!'

"I came to the conclusion that gold was the only true and real way to preserve wealth."

You do realize that gold is your finest liquid proxy for true wealth--defined as the very items needed for life--shelter, food, etc. This 'highly liquid proxy' that is gold means simply that gold is readlily convertible to those things of true wealth as needed. You might rightly say that in such a circumstance, the gold is spent-- as it is your money! You have a good view, Voyager!

As Another asks, "If you are one of 'small worth�, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you it is an easy path to follow!"

ANOTHER is a man of wisdom, indeed! And I would offer this, as borrowed from another good Knight (Sir Isaac Newton, I believe), "If I have seen farther, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants."

The view does indeed improve when here at this Round Table!
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 06:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3263)
April gold on 30 minute chart show this potential:
Current $294.80. Could go for $295.60 by NY open. If it hits $296.20 then may prove up for day in NY. I suspect a concerted effort, though, to knock gold back to below $293 for Friday or Weekly close.

How 'bout this?

Date: Fri Mar 12 1999 00:21
Shek (Boardreader) ID#290264:
BR
I, like you found this tidbit extremely interesting. Apparently its just the two of us.

Date: Thu Mar 11 1999 17:44
Shek ( Kaplan says... ) ID#290264:
"The New York Mercantile Exchange announced Thursday that it will decrease the minimum required margin for
sellers of gold, silver, and copper options. The margin will be cut to $10 per contract for gold; down from $20; to
$10 from $31 for silver; and to $10 from $25 for copper."
*** Shek, this appears extremely important to me - moreso than the China gold purchase rumor. ... BR
T. Remital
(03/12/1999; 06:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3264)
Suspect***
You need a reason to buy a the top just like you need a reason to sell at the bottom..
this is how tops and bottoms are made. I have often wondered why the good news always
appears at the top and conversly the bad news always appears at the bottom.. Who are these
people at the commerce dept. that report to us the CPI and other statistics about our
economy? Can we trust them? Lets face it, their boss has already admitted to lying to the
nation...Are we being controlled ? Is there really no inflation? I Iook forward to GATA'S
investigation ,it may reveal some interesting data...
ET
(03/12/1999; 07:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3265)
Richard
Hey Richard - you wrote;

'ET 3/7 #3059 - "If the effects of y2k in any way undermine the borrowers ability to repay the loans
that created the fiat initially then the fiat will decline in value relative to hard assets." [How and/or
why??]'

The question is; where does fiat get it's 'value'? When you borrow money from the bank, the banker didn't need to have the money on hand to lend you. He creates it when you agree to pay it back over time with interest. The money is created via an accounting transaction and placed in your account for your use and it's value is to you whatever you decide to do with the money; buy a car, a computer, etc. The bank holds the loan to you as an asset on their books. The money is 'backed' by the assumption that you will pay it back to the bank over time. In other words, the newly created money is an evidence of your debt to the bank and holds value as long as you can pay it back with interest. The interest is the bank's profit. Now put this one transaction with the bank into the context of all money currently in existence. All money today was created in this fashion with one party agreeing to loan money and another party agreeing to pay it back with interest.

The problem with this idea is the 'with interest' part. The interest portion was never created by the bank. How is it possible for everyone to pay back the money they borrowed if overall the money to pay the interest was never created initially? This is overcome today by bankers always creating more credit (money creation), faster than loans can be paid back (money destruction). For this system to work (the money to hold value to you as a trading medium), more and more money on balance must be created or the original loans cannot be paid back 'with interest'. The money supply on balance must always grow or borrowers will be unable to perform on their loans which gave the money it's value initially.

If y2k or any circumstance effects the borrowers ability to repay the money to the bank, what happens to the value of the money? It will decline in value relative to hard assets. You give the money it's value by agreeing to repay but if your ability to repay declines, the banks assets decline with it. If everyone that has borrowed money cannot repay, what good is any of the money? It didn't exist before everyone borrowed it, and won't exist if everyone can't pay it back. Hard assets remain regardless. The banks will attempt to seize the hard assets to replace the lost monetary assets on their balance sheets. Do you see why the banks can't really lose regardless of what happens to the value of money? This is why banking is such a great business! Maybe the subject of another thread?

You wrote;

'" If the worst case should happen, and we lose power and telcos, I would not take your cash for
payment as the underlying monetary system would have collapsed." [This would be BAD for all
business, but why the collapse? Just because you can't get all the cash YOU need?.]'

It is not a matter of obtaining cash. It is a matter of obtaining something in value in your transaction. If I know that borrowers are not paying back loans, why would I want to accept an evidence of their debt in trade for a hard asset? If the entire loan structure collapses, why would anyone want to accept in payment an uncollectible debt? Money today does not represent a hard asset. It represents some third party's ability to service a loan.

You wrote;

'I agree with all your thoughts for the most part but. . . . .I can't help but think we don't have a clear
picture of what's going to happen. Something is NOT right, something is NOT seen at this time and
will change your (our) thinking. . . . . IMHO. Really have enjoyed your thoughts.'

Thanks. What is not known to most is what money is and how the ability to control it is the greatest power in the world. What's not right is that the citizens gave up the power to control the value of money to a group which has used this power to their advantage. If the monetary system remains intact, bankers benefit. If the monetary system collapses, bankers benefit. What's wrong with this picture?

Here is one of my favorite quotes;

'Always pay; for first or last, you must pay your entire debt. Persons and events may stand for a time between you and justice, but it is only a postponement. You must pay at last your own debt. If you are wise, you will dread a prosperity which only loads you with more'. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

ET
YGM
(03/12/1999; 08:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3266)
Bankers Trust To Pay $63.5 Million in Fines----
If you enjoy seeing Bankers getting taken down for
illegal activities then you obviously would wish the
SAME for those responsible for Gold manipulation
thru the derivatives market. IMHO the only way to
achieve this is for EVERYONE to support GATA!
Otherwise we may never have the truth exposed
and there will be no exposure or expediency to an
end of this blatant manipulation. When Gold gets
hammered like this AM: you'll hear alot of grumbling
in the ranks but who's really trying to do anything
about it?? Bill Murphy and GATA are the only sign
of hope on the near horizon. I use the old adage---
"If You're Not Part Of The Solution- You're Part Of
The Problem"
Why not get involved & help be part of the solution-
It feels Good to fight back. GO GATA!
Regards--Ken Reser; a concerned Yukon Gold Miner.
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 09:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3267)
Today's Gold Market Report: LBMA Gold Volumes at Record Low, China Rumors
MARKET UPDATE (3/12/99): Gold gave up some of its recent gains in today's early
going. This appears to be technically oriented book adjusting in advance of the weekend.
The London Bullion Market Association reported a significant drop of about 30% in
February's daily gold turnover to a record low of 26.7 million ounces. For those of you
who like your figures in tons that amounts to just under 850 tons per day. Gold Fields
Mineral Services puts annual mine production in the neighborhood of 2000 tons per year --
all of which fairly well summarizes the importance of paper trading to this gold market. The
one, half-way intelligent remark that could be made about LBMA's newly instituted
transparency is that the mud has now become clearer. The gold carry trade, if not out-right
winding down, has at least taken on a subdued quality -- more or less operating at a low
hum, if you will. With all the talk about European gold reserves being tightly contained by
the European Central Bank perhaps we are near to finding the key that will unlock the next
bull market in gold.

While we are on the subject of the ECB, what a difference a day makes (or better put, what a
difference a finance minister makes). The euro is up in the neighborhood of 2� since Oscar
Lafontaine packed up his personal belongings and departed the offices of the German
finance ministry. This also removes the threat of International Monetary Fund gold sales
(our regrets to UK's Office of the Exchequer) for the foreseeable future. Those of you who
do not follow these gold inner rumblings closely should be advised that the British have
pushed very hard for IMF gold sales to the point that they won over the Clinton
administration on the idea. Oscar Lafontaine who favored IMF gold sales was bucking the
Bundesbank which strongly opposes IMF gold sales. Germany for years has been the major
obstacle to U.S./British designs on IMF gold. Also, this is the same Clinton administration
that did everything it could to protect American defense capabilities after learning that
Chinese intelligence had infiltrated Los Alamos bomb building facilities -- everything except
fire the spy that had stolen the nuclear secrets. We always knew that it was difficult to get
fired from a government job, and after all this is a touchy, feely Democrat administration
(ahem). Their policies with respect to the one are about as reputable and well thought out as
they are with the other -- a remarkable though somewhat flawed consistency.

Mr. Insider tells us that one unconfirmed rumor making the gold market circuit is that this
gold rally, that lost a little of its steam this morning, is related to actual physical buying for
the Chinese central bank. This is the first we've heard of any fire to go along with all that
smoke coming out of China in recent months. He also reports very strong gold demand in
India with rumors in that country about the potentiality for another devaluation of the rupee.
It was a prior devaluation in India some years back that solidified India as the largest gold
market in the world. Devaluations tend to have a dramatically positive effect on local gold
prices. He also says that everybody is talking about the Berkshire Hathaway report which
will be released tomorrow morning. Everyone wants to know what Warren Buffett is up to.

Enough rambling.......Have a nice weekend, fellow goldmeisters.

The March issue of News & Views is in the final stages of preparation. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 09:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3268)
TEST
This is a USAGOLD test.
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 09:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3269)
WOW --- FOA is BACK !!!
My prayers have been answered ! We all sit at your feet and await your comments.
<;-)
Goldfly
(03/12/1999; 09:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3270)
Wait a second, Gandalf

It says *USAGOLD* test......

Let's see what happens.

(But I hope it IS.)
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 10:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3271)
Goldfly's warning
I too can hardly believe my eyes. I shall not call the Hobbits until confirmed, as if it were a false alarm, they would cut off my long white beard. We all shall await the arrival of FOA.
<;-)
ET
(03/12/1999; 11:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3272)
Aragorn
Hey Aragorn - great post.

You wrote in part;

'I have succeeded if I do no more than have you question whether the good
stock of yesterday's soup remains in the dish served up today'.

Isn't this the truth? To understand what might be the best course in the future requires an understanding of the previous course.

You wrote in part;

'I recall a similar dialog many months ago with Yellowbird(?) wanting the answers you seek. My
advice remains the same. Invest in your self. Put your resources to work in areas over which you
have knowledge and control. You will easily find that personal assets provide expected benefits with
low risk. Only you will know what is the limit of your risk tolerance. I assume you work and think
each day, attempting to produce in excess of your daily needs. This becomes your wealth. Should
you choose to buy shares of company stock, their fate becomes your wealth's fate. If this company
is a sure thing to thrive, are you the only person with such knowledge? If information is known to
everyone, it becomes useless, as the opportunity is surely past'.

Yes, one's self is the best investment. Knowledge is wealth. It becomes easier to see ahead when one has the knowledge to choose the best perspective of the past.

You wrote in part;

'What was to be a safety
net of a nation's people, the cash savings of life's excess labor and productivity, has become the very
net to ensnare them.'

Yes - your perspective of wealth is quite different from the majority. It's been my experience that when the vast majority believe they have discovered the secret of attaining great wealth they are undoubtedly wrong. Enormous wealth is achieved by few for just this reason. When wealth is improperly defined it becomes quite difficult to gather in your hand and hold for any length of time. Today's perceived wealth could be more properly defined as being built on a foundation of sand. Without a solid foundation wealth will shift with the winds of time.

Thanks for your contributions here Aragorn. They are much appreciated.

ET
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3273)
YAWN!
On a slow Friday, with all eyes transfixed upon the possibility of DOW 10,000, or D10K, this quite bit of news is about all there is. Will keep searching...

HEADLINE: Oil Chiefs Agree To Cut Production--March 12, (AP)

Effective April 1st--Two Million Barrels per day
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990312/oil_cuts_4.html
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3274)
The unofficial SI9H settlement winners
JA, backlash and Alchemist are looking at that settlement price of 5.20 and wondering what the desicion will be.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3275)
sshhhhh...
That wasn't quite the way to spell 'quiet.'

Gather 'round good Knights! The arrows have sped from the bows and judgement is at hand!
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3276)
OOPS the settlement was finallized at $5.32 !!!
SOOOOO it looks as the Alchemist is sitting on the POT !
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3277)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Mostly Lower, But Off Session Lows

New York-March 12-FWN--Precious metals closed mostly
lower here today, although off of session lows, as
bearish Producer Price Index (PPI) data pressured gold from
the outset, sources said.
April gold futures slipped to a 3-day low of $292.40
earlier today. Market players said that gold fell on a spurt
of fund selling, likely triggered in part by this morning's
weak February PPI.
The PPI fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% due to an
unwinding of the food and energy price surges seen in
January. "It reinforces disinflationary influences," said
James Steel, analyst at Refco. Gold is typically regarded as
an inflation hedge and tends to perform well during times of
higher inflation.
Traders noted that strength in the dollar against the
yen has also started to take its toll. "A stronger dollar
was the key behind the overnight pressure," said Steel.
One trader noted that there was also disappointed
selling in gold after it failed to join the early rally in
energy prices. April crude oil climbed to a fresh 4-month
high of $15.11 in early trade on news of an agreement by the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
non-OPEC countries to cut output by more than 2 million
barrels per day.
However, the energy market rally started to run out of
steam, with April crude trimming its gains and last quoted
at $14.54, up 23 cents. "As it fell back, this was more
bearish for gold," said one trader.
However, one source said traders wanted to keep April
gold in the $290-$295 range ahead of today's COMEX options
expiration. This likely helped gold to finish up from its
daily lows.
April gold settled $2.10 lower at $293.40.
While some players suggested that April gold's jump to
a fresh 2-month high of $296.50 Thursday was "overdone,"
others described today's retreat as profit taking ahead of
the weekend after recent gains. "It's a consolidation," said
one trader.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
ANOTHER
(03/12/1999; 13:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3278)
Test
This is a USAGOLD test.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 13:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3279)
Hello again!
Mr. Michael Kosares and ALL,

Hello again! I trust all is well with you? As you know, my absence was brought about by a personal family loss that has expanded my duties. Perhaps, in a month or two I will be able to again add to your Forum! I have several communications in need of sending, but little time to forward them. The Forum has been followed by myself and others. It has truly grown!

If able I will offer a rather long discussion from myself, containing bits of Another's private Thoughts. I hope THEY will be as interesting to others as it was for me? The markets are on a designed course, indeed!

It will be sent directly to you or posted, hopefully in the next week or two? Then I will be away for several weeks.

Thanks,
FOA

Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 13:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3280)
Goldfly -- did you see that ?
Look out for the rush of the Hobbits when they hear that BOTH FOA and ANOTHER are coming back to join us at the USAGOLD FORUM !! The good news will spread like wildfire.
<;-)
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 13:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3281)
Bridge Gold News
Bucharest--Mar 11--National Bank of Romania Chief Economist Valentin Lazea
today confirmed that the bank was engaged in talks with Swiss bank UBS over
a loan designed to boost its hard currency reserves using around 35 tonnes
of gold as collateral. By Vladimir Rodina, Bridge News, Story .13381

Mumbai--Mar 12--Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha today said the gold
deposit scheme announced in the 1999-00 (Apr-Mar) federal budget would not
enjoy amnesty as demanded by a section of non-resident Indians, United News
India reported. Bridge News, Story .13738

London--Mar 12--The London Bullion Market Association said today that
average daily cleared turnover for silver in February was up by 30%
month-on-month to an average 277.3 million ounces, but was still down
substantially from 347.8 million in February, 1998.
Meanwhile, cleared gold turnover in February fell to a record low of
26.7 million ounces, down around 30% on levels seen in both February 1998
and February 1997. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .15206

New York--Mar 11--The New York Mercantile Exchange said today that it will
decrease the minimum margin for sellers of gold, silver and copper options
at the close of business Friday. The margin will fall to $10 from $20 for
gold; to $10 from $31 for silver and to $10 from $25 for copper. By Bridge
News, Story .16942

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/12/1999; 13:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3282)
LET THE DISCUSSIONS BEGIN!
wELCOME BACK FOA!!!!!I have a long post coming up,but that can wait till I give you a mental bear hug if that's acceptable behavior in your country..............beesting
Aristotle
(03/12/1999; 14:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3283)
FOA and ANOTHER--
Welcome...back! I am eager to make your acquaintance. ---Aristotle
Goldfly
(03/12/1999; 14:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3284)
Alllll RIGHT!!!!

FOA, good to hear from you! Looking forward to hearing your take on the current situation. Hope things are going well for you.

GF
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 14:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 3285)
The Contest Winners....
Come gather at this table round, my fellow knights, as this monumental week comes to a close. Lift up your goblets to drink to our winning posters. It was formidable contest indeed. One that will ring in journals of this FORUM for all time. It was Y2K we came to understand and it was Y2K that fell under the weight of our mighty charge.

On the Y2K prob...........

Would somebody please get them to stop blowing those infernal royal trumpets?...........

As I was saying....On Y2K...The winners of those increasingly valuable U.S. Silver Eagles are:

1. The illustrious Turbohawg who understands the value of tipping one now and then.....for #3101...The Nomad Approach. Why not?

2. The sturdy backlash for #3080 who knows how to blend a pleasing broth

3. Sir Peter of Asherville for a triple comprehensive reference to which all can refer both now and in the future

And NOW.... for the glitttttttttttering gold -- the one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonics of unmatched Beauty and Resilience:

On the issue of Y2K......

Puhlease.............. those trumpets....Enough...

We once again have a tie.

The gold goes to:

Sir AEL for #3056...who made the distinction for us between "hoarding" and "stockpiling" -- a greater distinction than some would imagine given international governments' predilection to blaming its problems on "hoarders."

And........Thank you, trumpeters. (Blessed silence!)

ET...who definitely remains more earthbound than his handle would imply. For lucky message #3013. There is something very valuable to the thought that "governments can panic" -- a thought worthy of the gold.

Now let's move forward to the silver predictions on this day before the great one -- Warren Buffett -- announces to the world what he has done with all that silver.

The price prediction prize goes to Alchemist who landed just 2 small coppers short of being on the money. The gold is yours my prescient friend. What say you next?

The posting prize on "the biggest surprise of the year" goes to:

Farfel on the euro. Who would have guessed one lonely finance minister could hold up an empire's progress? Is that what's really going on? A strong post -- the type to which we are becoming accustomed to from Sir Farfel.

And............

The Magician....Once again it's the euro ( I guess you know where we are coming from.) He also in his magical way took us from thinking euro vs dollar to euro vs. gold. So will the Europeans go for gold? We shall see. A very strong entry to the FORUM, Magician. We look forward to more of the same. So what now with Mr. Lafontaine out of the way?

My fellow members of this table round, this was the best contest we could have hoped for. The judging was extraordinarily difficult. Much gold and silver lamentably is going out the door to these great thinkers and posters, but you have helped us all with your insights and the expense of time to share them. No prizes ever were better earned.

To all those who did not get a prize this time, there will be other contests, other tests of our mettle (or is that metal) to which we must respond.

Remember, at the beginning of the contest, I alluded to an empty seat kept at the table -- for an absent bard and fellow knight. Well, it seems both have returned -- FOA and ANTOHER. Page, please roll up another chair. The seats are now filled and I think this contest had something to do with it.

I want to welcome all our new posters over the past few days and invite all lurkers to join in this quest for the grail of wisdom.

Salud, my fellow knights! Now with the trumpets......Sound them til your hearts are content....
Usul
(03/12/1999; 14:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3286)
FOA
Welcome back! As I read of your personal loss, my thoughts are with you.
Rare indeed are those who can stimulate the thought processes, as you and Another have done... The nature of
the thoughts you have presented are such as to stretch the
mind; to cause the reader to search within and question
what seemed previously to be more simple... this is good.
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 15:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3287)
Test
Test
TownCrier
(03/12/1999; 15:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3288)
Ecuador at week's end; Bridge Gold Report
HEADLINE: Ecuador faces austerity moves, freeze on deposits--March 12, (Reuters)

An ugly, ugly situation that could happen anywhere fiat money is used
http://cnn.com/WORLD/americas/9903/12/BC-ECUADOR.reut/


NY Precious Metals Review: Apr gold slumps $2.10 on fund sales
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
The PPI fell by a larger than expected 0.4% due to an unwinding of the food
and energy price surges seen in January. "It reinforces disinflationary
influences," said James Steel, analyst at Refco. Gold is typically regarded as
an inflation hedge and tends to perform well during times of higher inflation.
Traders noted that strength in both stock and bond markets today and the
recent strength seen in the dollar against the yen in recent weeks is starting
to take its toll. "A stronger dollar was the key behind the overnight pressure,"
said Steel.
One trader noted that there was also disappointed selling in gold after it
failed to join the early rally in energy prices. NYMEX Apr crude futures climbed
to a fresh 4-month high of $15.11 per barrel in early trade on news of an
agreement by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut output by more than
2 million barrels per day.
However, the rally started to run out of steam, with Apr crude trimming its
gains and it settled up 18c at $14.49. "As it fell back, this was more bearish
for gold," a trader said.
Despite patches of weakness, traders had predicted that Apr gold would not
see heavy losses because many players wanted to keep it in the $290-295 range
ahead of today's COMEX option expiration.
While some players suggested Apr gold's jump to a fresh 2-month high of
$296.50 Thursday was "overdone," others described today's retreat as
profit-taking ahead of the weekend after recent gains. "It's a consolidation," a
trader said, noting that he "wouldn't sell at these levels."
Recent talk that one large NY trade house has been conducting extensive
buying for Chinese interests has been supporting gold, traders said.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/12/1999; 15:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3289)
About the IMF the guys that say they want to sell GOLD.
WHAT IS THE IMF!
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/what.htm

The following is a bunch of notes I gathered while viewing the above URL.
182 countries have voluntarily joined the IMF to maintain a stable system of buying & selling their currencies so that payments in foreign money can take place between countries smoothly and without delay.
The IMF lends money to members having trouble meeting financial obligations.
The IMF has no effective authority over the domestic economic policies of it's members.
The IMF is a global monitoring agency.
Each currency has a value. ???
Purchasing foreign currency is a fact of life not only for tourists,but also for importers,banks,governments etc. before they can do business abroad.
On the great depression:A widespread lack of confidence in paper money led to a demand for GOLD beyond what national Treasuries could supply. A number of nations led by the United Kingdom,were forced to abandon the Gold standard,which for years gave money a known and STABLE value.Between 1929 and 1932 prices of goods(commodities)fell by 48% worldwide,and the value of international trade fell by 63%.
The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 was the beginning of the IMF.In 1946 operations started in Washington D.C. with 39 member countries.
Membership in the IMF is by a quota arrangement.
The U.S. owns 18.25% of the total quota(wealth)in the IMF.
The U.S. has provided about $35 Billion,Palau a small island has the smallest quota about $3.8 million.
The U.S. has 18% of voting rights or 265,000 votes.
Palau has 272 votes or .002% of voting rights.
Exchange Arrangements--Gives a long explanation on how countries calculate and set their own exchange rate and value of their own money.
A member country can withdraw 25% of it's quota money in GOLD or any convertible currency..(For those of you still with me,could this be a reason the Gold rich countries[U.S.] trying to sell IMF Gold?)
An IMF member earns interest on it's quota charge slightly below market rates.
Very good explanation of S.D.R.'s go to URL.
The IMF is currently training people from all over the world in their brand of econmic policy.


COMMENT:The largest debtor nation on earth is calling the shots concerning the IMF.The U.S. is in debt over 5 trillion dollars and who is responsible for paying the debt? Answer the U.S. taxpayer.These are strong words but'sounds to me if we don't get back on a worldwide Gold system soon,all taxpayers especially those who cannot vote themselves a pay raise,are nothing more than slaves!Enough money for subsistance and the rest goes to pay off government incurred debt.


Pardon me again for all the errors in my last post,when I get excited I have a bad tendency to forget to proof read............beesting
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 16:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3290)
Congratulations to all winners of the contest...
That was a tough one and you all deserve your rewards. My coin dealer buddy told me today: Steve, you know most of the people buying from me today are middle to later age. Young people, oh there is a few, aren't really buying gold and silver. Imagine that a 30-year old stock broker has never known a bear market."

OK.

How 'bout this?

Lawson says ECB unlikely to permit gold sales
PERTH, March 11 ( Reuters ) - The new European Central Bank is
unlikely to permit national European banks to sell gold reserves
in the near future, Central Europe Trust chairman Nigel Lawson
said on Thursday. ``For the foreseeable future, the ECB is not
going to permit gold sales by the other central banks of
Euroland,'' Lawson told the Australian Gold Conference. Lawson,
a former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, said gold sales by
countries in the European Union would undermine efforts to
build-up the strength of the new European currency, the euro,
against the U.S. dollar. He estimated that national European
central banks held about 40 percent of the world's gold
reserves, compared with 25 percent in the United States. Gold
sales would strenthen the U.S. dollar's role as the world's
currency, he said. Gold bank sales prior to the launch of the ECB
last year, namely by Belgium, which sold 70 percent of its
reserves and the Netherlands, which sold 40 percent of reserves,
were timed to pre-empt ECB policy against sales, Lawson said.
``They realised that once the European Central Bank came into
being, they would no longer have the freedom to do that,'' he
said.
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 16:57:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3291)
Test
Test
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 17:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3292)
Rhinoceros
Kaplan said today, "LIFE IN THE FAST LANE, SURELY MAKES YOU LOSE YOUR MIND: On Friday the P/E ratio on the S&P 500
closed down 0.08 at 34.34. On Thursday, March 11, 1999, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 touched a new all-time intraday
high of 34.65 (at 12:41 p.m. EST) before closing up 0.29 at 34.42. By almost any measure, including the ratios of price to
book, total market capitalization to GDP, and dividend yield to bond yield, the last time any equity market was so overvalued
was in London in 1720. Future generations will look back in amazement (and anger, if they're stuck with the paper).

Be sure to read (or attend) Eugene Ionesco's fabulous play RHINOCEROS, and decide if this doesn't exactly describe the
current state of the U.S. stock market. Very brief plot summary: One person after another turns into a rhinoceros. Read it, the
wordplay is quite humorous. Even if everyone else on your block has become a rhinoceros, do not capitulate!"

For more: www.goldminingoutlook.com
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 17:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3293)
TEST
TEST TEST
SteveH
(03/12/1999; 17:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3294)
Ok, if you want to be in the group better test
test
FARFEL.
(03/12/1999; 17:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3295)
Test
Test
Gandalf the White
(03/12/1999; 17:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3296)
OK -- all, help me with the answer to R's Question on POG = $300.
Date: Friday, March 12, 1999 1:27 PM
Subject: GREAT News
>Hail Master Chartist
>The notice of forthcoming return of FOA to the USAGOLD FORUM was received today. This is the greatest news to Goldhearts in the last few months. --- even greater than the holding of support at the XAU 60 +/- level and the recent increase of the POG (Spot the dog). This is my last invitation to you, to at least lurk at the site and join in on the education as to the truth of the markets. I could really use your teachings ! BTW, I have not yet heard you say, MAJOR BEARISH KEY REVERSAL.
< ; - )>>
Gandalf the Goldheart

From: Ryan Thomas
To: Gandalf the White
Subject: Re: GREAT News
Date: Friday, March 12, 1999 2:54 PM

Key reversal? Might be close. I see it more in the tech then SP / DJ. Won't call it until I see it / it shows.
The thing I wonder about is this. Lets just say spot takes out 300. We KNOW thats a MAJOR MAJOR line and there is going to be some viscious short covering. IF spot breaks 300, I just can NOT see the major averages going up along with gold. I think if 300 is taken out, that spells major problems. Just-my-opinion. and until it does, its speculation on EVERYONES part. Today was almost predictable re: XAU ... wouldn't you say?
About the online site. --(USAGOLD FORUM)-- I'll be very honest. I don't have time enough in a day to do what I do. We do damn near around the clock.....maybe this weekend I'll check it out and I appreciate the invite. Have a great weekend.
Thanks
R.
====
SO --- here is my request for discussion, Ye Knights of the FORUM !! Let me hear your guidance.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/12/1999; 17:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3297)
SteveH...
You are in esteemed company.

Is anybody else out there having posting problems? If so, please e-mail me. MK
Farfel
(03/12/1999; 17:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3298)
RE: Deciphering the Breakfast Message (Continued)
Apparently, the commercials have switched and gone NET SHORT on the gold contracts. Very interesting.

Based on standard COT theory, this development is hypothetically VERY BAD NEWS for gold investors and should embolden and give much glee to gold shorts...EXCEPT I really think this might confirm my own theory from last night. Even today, I still am agonizing over Breakfast Man's elliptical reasoning behind his adamant recommendations and I still am not sure I figured it out. But the source is unimpeachable and coming from a guy connected to the inner circle.

FWIW I think the gold shorts are being "set up" for a major betrayal from one (or several) of their own...I think the stock market is also being set up for real disaster with all this 10000 hype. Some major hedge funds and Wall Street institutions are about to get screwed (I think) by fellow members of their "cartel" although they probably have no inkling of it. I base this theory on the fact that the gold short cartel CANNOT suffer any turncoats or it collapses like a sandcastle hit by an ocean wave...and analogously, the equities bubble cannot be supported if any heretofore notable, bullish Establishment funds or institutions spin on a dime and turn notably bearish tomorrow.

That's why I think he warned me to dump all non-gold equities immediately and buy gold like crazy. At least that's IMHO.

DISCLAIMER: I am just thinking aloud and NOT guaranteeing anything. I gave that up after my previous year's incorrect Pegasus analysis. SO PLEASE take this analysis with a grain of salt. But with this latest devlopment in the COT numbers, something is up.
FOA
(03/12/1999; 20:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3299)
Will Return!
To All:
I thank everyone for the warm welcome. Unfortunately, there is very little time to communicate.
As written earlier, I will be offering a discussion and consideration of views, along with some of
Another's recent "private Thoughts". My participation with the Forum will be of a limited nature
for, yet, many more weeks. During this period I will continue to learn from those that truly create
the real market of Gold, the writers of the USAGOLD FORUM! Thanks FOA
Peter Asher
(03/12/1999; 21:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3300)
Michael
Once again, thank you for the prize and the acknowledgment of relevant content that accompanied it. As a holder of a few Apr-295s, I had hoped for a gold, to take out the sting, but alas 't were not to be. Well, a silver here, a silver there, and pretty soon it's real money.

After posting all that content I've been left in the "lurk" all week playing catch-up with the task of earning a living. Two posters this week have said "when do you guys sleep?" I was going to say, "sleep?" but actually since I became a Forum poster, I pretty much quit renting videos.

Speaking of time constraint Michael, when your contest begets this amount of discussion you are so loaded up with reading our work that we are deprived of your wise and knowing input as host and moderator, this time for a full week. (Although I've noticed one of our newer posters has appointed himself your Squire in this endeavor.)

Oh yes, about my compulsion to buy a couple of calls instead of a real eagle. Bridge news just now had two interrelated items. Keeping the contracts range bound on option expiration day, and halving the margin on selling (writing naked?) Options. That doubles the potential to create paper gold out of thin air. I mean this is tissue paper. A gold option is a contract to buy a contract to buy gold at a specified price and date, backed by a minuscule margin and the writer's credit. Now the incentive will be even greater to squeeze the POG in a tight range. In the last five months 290 calls have worked out and 295s and 300, not. When the POG finally break out and runs, these guys are going to get wiped and I will love it. The new margin game will in the end, just intensify the pain.

Well, back to work, sleep, and pondering. By the way I have found contemplating posts the best form of "Counting sheep" ever.

Peter A.
beesting
(03/12/1999; 23:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3301)
More on the IMF.
The mission of the IMF seems a noble endeavor,help undeveloped nations build modern infrastructure to catch up with the developed nations. But lets examine this a little closer.
How is this paid for? Money is lent from the IMF to the government of the receiving undeveloped nation.The undeveloped nation with the help of the IMF,contrives a method of repayment from the unsuspecting local population'some form of taxation!!!
Many people in these countries don't even know(believe it or not)what the word taxation means.
Here are some excerpts from a book I have read.I will give the URL at the end of my post:
How to Identify Legal Plunder.Quite simply.see if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them,and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong.
There is in all of us a strong disposition to believe that anything lawful is also legitimate.The belief is also widespread that many persons have erroneously held that things are"just"because law makes them so.
It is impossible to introduce into society a greater change and a greater evil than this:The conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder.This and 33 pages more can be read at:
http://www.jim.com/jamesd/bastiat.htm
The Law by Frederic Bastiat.
One more thought,why does the IMF talk about selling Gold when the price is at historically low prices?Could it be just more hype on what a relic Gold is in the present world???Maybe ANOTHER can help us with this question........beesting
backlash
(03/12/1999; 23:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3302)
Award & Sleeeep. .. . .

Michael, many thanks for the kind words and especially the 'silver'. Hardly can see how mine got up there with all the superlative posts for this past week.

JA -
Second ain't bad, but next time let's do for #1, OK?

Oh yes, for those who wonder about the sleep. With this great group, it goes around the clock I think. When one goes down for a rest there is another ready to pick up the sword and shield and continue the battle. What was that about Squires?

bl
onlychild
(03/12/1999; 23:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3303)
beesting
Could it be that the IMF is simply a tool to expand the welfare state type of enslavement to the remainder of the world? If you keep everyone barefoot and pregnant then there is not much chance of anyone offering any opposition to your tyranny.
On the subject of Y2K, I have not heard anyone mention how we might continue to communicate. Will the web work? I would like to recommend that each of you run out and buy a UPS (uninterruptable power supply) for your computer. not only will it run your system for an hour or so without AC, it will also protect your system from the dirty power of a standby generator. Mine is an ACP brand and cost about $300.
That way if the web is up you can talk.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 00:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3304)
Sleep? The sun is always shining SOMEHWHERE in the world...
Like now...G'day, mates!

On the IMF, beesting, you said,
"One more thought, why does the IMF talk about selling Gold when the price is at historically low prices? Could it be just more hype on what a relic Gold is in the present world?"

I tend to look at it in a more revealing light. The IMF sprung out of the Bretton Woods agreement that put the world on a gold standard via the American dollar. The dollar was pegged to gold and all other currency was pegged to the dollar. The IMF functioned as sort of a payments clearinghouse in this gold money world. If a nation drifted from financial propriety, the IMF took up the slack until their financial house could be set in order again. When Pres Nixon grew alarmed that America was "living off its past savings" he effectively ended the gold standard and killed the IMF's reason for being.
But, like all government entities, once created they take on a life of their own, and the IMF was not going to go quietly into the night. The bobbed, they dodged, they weaved, and they are still around...essentially a bank oowned and operated by the countries that have put money into the operating reserves. At the time, gold was the only money, so the member countries can all lay a claim to their share of the IMF Gold.
When they talk of Gold Sales, I see this as the member countries' way of cashing out of their gold-paid membership, and substituting instead paper reserves. Basically, they all want their gold back. Can you blame them?

Some members want their gold back...and the term 'sale' is the most suitable term for them to describe the swap.

Wouldn't you be clamoring for a 'sale' too? Gold is clearly becoming too important an asset to have only rightful ownership of, but no hands-on control over. Yes...they want their gold back.

Do you have yours? ---Aristotle
Aragorn III
(03/13/1999; 01:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3305)
One does not talk abroad without bringing the message home...
Bimetallism is something not yet discussed at the round table. It seems the knights have no need to trouble with such trifles. That is well.

Date: Sat Mar 13 1999 03:19
Aragorn III (goldfever) ID#257254:
Copyright � 1999 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You have said:

...and we must insist on gold
and we must insuist on
silver...

"and we must insuist on silver"--that is where you have it wrong, my gold-hearted friend...and I don't make reference to the spelling.

Bimetallism will ever be the downfall of sound money. Gresham's law, my good man; it's called Gresham's law. You see, the ratio cannot be known and maintained. Pick ONE. Gold.

You must give up silver to the industrialists if you want to "save the world". It is that simple...standing on the shoulders of giants.

got gold?
Pete
(03/13/1999; 04:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3306)
"ANOTHER"
I've been away for a while and wondered if there was any discussion regarding the untimely disappearance of ANOTHER and FOA?

Something, IMHO, had to happen to ANOTHER's scenarios that were disconcerting, ergo their sudden departure. Mike, or anyone else, any theories or plausible explanations?

Best regards Gold Bugs,

Pete
ET
(03/13/1999; 08:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3307)
USAGOLD

Thank you. This award will be treasured. It will be displayed proudly atop my monitor alongside a memento given me by my father. I'm happy you found something of interest in my ramblings. Congratulations to all for providing such an informative weekend. I'm sure we will see many more. Thanks again.

ET
ET
(03/13/1999; 08:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3308)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - I agree with your assessment of the IMF. It years ago should have been abandoned but as you point out, it is always difficult to remove a bureaucracy once in place. I would imagine you are also correct in your assumption that member countries view the IMF gold stash as rightfully theirs. Repatriation might be a better term than 'sale'. With news that the German finance minister has resigned it would come as no surprise to me to see all countries attempt to load up on gold. The entire monetary system seems in jeopardy at this time and I cannot understand why any country would prefer a promise to pay over the genuine article.

ET
turbohawg
(03/13/1999; 08:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3309)
Michael
thank you for the prize ... I look forward to hoarding my lucre. You might be interested to know that I've found a hedge to the drawback of my strategy, the drawback being: >If the worst happens and food becomes really expensive, I'm going to have no stockpile to lean on.< I could get fat.

Beesting, interesting that you mention The Law by Frederic Bastiat. I just pulled that out the other day in order to give it another read. Excellent book ... still trying to find the time to get back to it.

Like others, I'm looking forward to the thought provoking insights and comments of Another and FOA.
SteveH
(03/13/1999; 08:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3310)
Posted this to the www.stockhouse.com miq forum
Souwester: yes, note the totally desparate measure we go to to justify holding a gold stock. It seems that underlying all of the
negativity of gold are these two assupmptions or, if you will, the a priori (that which is before):

1) Gold, despite all the negativity, is still held by most Central Banks and the net sales of gold from these banks hasn't really
been significant therefore gold really is the backing of all money, even though nobody want to admit same. In other words the
action of holding gold speaks louder than the words of saying one is going to sell gold.

2) After 18 years of a bear market, enough indicators exist to tell the moderately astute amongst us that something is about to
give in the commodity precious metal market. GOLD DOESN'T MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, IT MAKES MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND ALWAYS RETURNS TO ITS INHERENT VALUE EVENTUALLY. The game is about up. We
can taste it, see it, feel it, read it, but what we haven't done is experienced that event yet (except 18 years ago).

3) (maybe there are more than two a priori)What we have witnessed for 18 years is probably the largest net accumulation of
physical gold at bargain basement prices ever seen before. The accumulators have held or brought the prices down with the
paper market that stretches beyond International boundries and therefore finds rules and regulations actual suit their purposes
than hinders. Once the grand accumulation is over and the paper market no longer can support the gold carry trade, the gig will
be up and gold will make that dramatic move that we know, we sense, we feel is coming in gold and silver.

It will certainly be interesting to look back in a few years to see how this played out and why. As only history will bear witness
to what is really ocurring now.

Finally, the more negative we become, the lower the price, the more the smart money accumlates. That is why the price is
actually holding you know (IMO) at $274-$284: because the POG is at or probably actually slightly below production cost
and any moves below this price are met with heavy buying. So in a sense we can use our negativity as a thermometer. You will
know that the timing for a turnaround is when you become so disgusted that you will actually sell or want to very badly sell your
gold stocks for your internet or other high flyer stock. If you can resist that urge (every damn time it happens -- about four
times per day -- then you may actually be ready for the move. I think the move will probably be so dramatic though that it
might just kill the gold futures trade as deliveries will increase to the point that they can't keep or meet the demand. The rules
will change (reducing margin requirements being yet another indicator) to make the game last longer but in the end there will be
too little gold to deliver to too much paper. Our hope remains and will likely be that [gold stocks]will be a beneficiary of
said game for a while for us to benefit from it.

We know, we feel, we sense, we see this as high potential, but we just don't know when. I say soon. Patience.
ET
(03/13/1999; 09:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3311)
Farfel

Hey Farfel - I've been thinking about your conversation with your friend. Do you remember a comment by ANOTHER a long while back saying that the 'cat was out of the bag' or words to that effect? It would seem there are many cats hiding in bags out there. Market manipulators can only buck the real market for short periods before being overwhelmed by supply and demand. As Aragorn pointed out, a manipulated 'sure thing' has a limited life before the majority gets wind of what is actually going on. The herd has turned and the ability of manipulators to keep the cat in the bag apparently has reached it's limits. Your friend seems to have discovered that promises to pay are not the same as gold in your hand. This 'dollar-based' monetary system seems to be on it's last legs and those in the know are making the transition to whatever is next. With his political comments he seems to imply some kind of default is at hand. The question seems to be which parties will bear the brunt of this upcoming change? If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that many promises will be monetized to the detriment of those holding fiat. Could this explain the sudden surge in real assets?

ET
beesting
(03/13/1999; 09:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3312)
BIMETALLISM
Aristotle,very good analysis on why the IMF is hinting about Gold sales.I just can't believe the timing with the price of Gold so low.Maybe GATA will uncover some additional information.Msg.3304

ARAGORN III Msg.3305 ---Bimetallism-the use of two metals(Gold and Silver) jointly as a monetary standard with both constituting legal tender at a predetermined ratio.
Websters definition-had to look it up.
It seems it worked in the past until time caught up with the predetermined ratio.The free market,and human nature have a tendency to inflate all by them selves.Example-My job is more important than your job so I deserve more,or my product is better than your product so I should charge more.Eventually the predetermined ratio is destroyed,as history shows by the price of the metals being set by the free market system ever so slowly rising.(supply and demand)If we were to get on a Bimetallism system today,with Gold and Silver allowed to float,IMHO at first it would be chaotic untill the world understood how the system worked than it would work better than our present fiat system.Gasoline prices are a good example of a price floating system in effect right now.I'm absolutely for a bimetallic system.............beesting
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 10:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3313)
Beesting's Bimetal post
I believe beesting, that Aragorn III and I could agree to your bimetal conversion only if the Au to Ag ratio was set at a fixed ratio of say 30,000 to 5. I had long ago discussed the matter of holding both gold and silver with ANOTHER, and was given somewhat the same straight answer to not waste resources until you had enough of the REAL stuff of wealth being Au !! Thanks to both Aragorn III and ANOTHER have seen the light, and my vaults now have a golden glow, rather than the silver gleam. It is much warmer now.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 10:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3314)
OOPS
That should read: I have seen the light !!!!
sorry
<;-)

Alchemist
(03/13/1999; 10:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3315)
Thanks
Thanks again everyone for all the invaluable information that is being discussed. My learning curve this past year has been very high. I am trying to get a clearer picture of the power behind the scenes, as I believe that the real power remains mostly invisible to the general media. In a book I read a while back( don't remember the title, possibly the 'Rockerfellers' by Peter Collier and David Horowitz, there was mention that a very few (something like a half dozen or so controlled about 80% of the Wall Street Companies. I think that we have all heard that most depressions are orchestrated events, to enable a greater shift of power and control to the few. My sense is that gold stood in the way of the expansion of debt that was needed to bring us closer to a one world order. Also if everything becomes electronic, there will be no need for the physical. This will also enable closer scrutiny of all transactions ( with the hype of controlling the black market economy) by the few. Various derivitives and similiar instruments created in the last while would act like feedback mechanisms to lead to a self regulating system. Therefore no need for a barbaric relic like gold. I believe this plan has failed and the powers that be ( held mostly in the banking community) are in trouble. As was discussed, the IMF had the role of trying to regulate the flow of global capital. I think that it is failing miserably. About half the money that is lent to needing countries ( either World Bank or IMF money ) shifts to the bank accounts of the controlling elite and ends up offshore.
This money is then lent back to bail out the banking elite that were in trouble to begin with. The taxpayer is then left holding the bag, with a devalued currency and debt in American $'s. The people are worse of than ever before, with there economies in total shatters. Bring in investment (global corporations) to bail us out. This type of money does not stay local to support the local economies, but further concentrates the power in the controlling elite.
My areas of interest have been mostly of a spiritual nature and to try to understand why things are in such a mess ( although perfect as they are, if one truly understands the workings of consciousness). I do think that those at the top of the global power elite believe in the need to control the affairs of the world, and they see this in a positive light for everyone. However, I think that there is also some fundamental blinders in their thinking.
A few points I have been pondering : What is the relationship between the IMF and the BIS, are they working together or is one trying to control the other?
Also, I find it interesting that both Bush and Mulroney are on the board of directors of Barrick Gold, and that Bush jr. is feeling a need to get into political power in the US. Any comments?
This has probably wandered a bit off the general forum topics. Thanks Michael for the gold coin for coming up with the closest silver price and pressure me to sit at the table rather than stay in the shadows.
By the way my price came from first looking at the general chart range the last short while and seeing a fair size hole neat the $5.30 area, Being one interested in areas of spirit (numerology) and 8 being the number of money wealth, I chose the nearest 8 (5+3 on the digits). The Chinese love to have lots of 8's associated with their lives.
AEL
(03/13/1999; 11:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3316)
Mon Deux!
Would never have expected it! My modest contribution winning the
big one! THANKS, MK! Very kind of you. I'll call you soon. 'Sides,
it is high time I started ordering some metal from you folks... :)

PS: PETER ASHER: what number is your Allignment of Data Part III?
somehow I missed that installment... could not find... (and THANKS
for these excellent writeups... keepers!)
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 11:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3317)
On Breakfast with Alfie...
The monolith cracks. The free market is not a political agenda; it is an extension of the natural order. I do not impose my will on the markets; they impose it on me. Those who feel that they can control the markets ultimately end up with a filled lesson book and an empty bank account. The gold carry trade/shorting schemes have run the channel so near the cost of gold production that they are running out of players -- and running out of time. Many are becoming impatient. LTCM was the event that exposed how vulnerable the gold carry trade really was. People want out and they can't get out. So they think they're getting screwed. No, greed got them where they are. They're stuck. They deserve what they are going to get. What Farfel's friend is telling us in my opinion is that the scramble has begun and some big players smell blood in the water....Trouble is, it's probably their own.
AEL
(03/13/1999; 11:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3318)
PSS: Thanks to all
PSS: Thanks to everyone for a great round of posts. The last week
really has had all kinds of keepers. Good stuff. I toast to you all!

PSSS: Welcome back Another/FOA!
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 12:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3319)
Feedback - ET
ET (03/12/99; 07:54:04MDT - Msg ID:3265)
ET - Thanks for your post. I found I had to read it numerous times. . deep thoughts can lead to headaches. I'll save a copy in my ABCs.

Your whole explanation on "fiat money value" leans exclusively on continued creation of debt with the issuance of credit. Is there a conspicuous event /turning point in history that can be viewed as the starting point of an 'easy credit' mentality ? I remember back in 1963, while working for a local bank, Master and VISA (not first name I don't believe) cards first came out. Others were already out, AmEx & Dinners, but this must have been a started something else going.

So . . I would rationalize your assets lean toward gold rather than paper. I believe I have a much greater position in precious metals than most, although I'm not sure that would be consistent with those that post here. Ten to twenty percent seems to be for the "less conservative" gold investor. I just cannot put all my savings in gold for fear of the limited liquidity. I often wonder what I will do once the metals hit some "higher" value. I presume there will be a time to sell and enjoy some of the rewards, but the next few years seem to have "caution" written all over them. Thanks again.
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 12:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3320)
AEL
#3116 17:56 3/12, Thanks for the compliment
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 12:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3321)
beesting an All
About, "things are"just"because law makes them so." My definitive description of democracy is "A collective Anarchy, whereby 51% of the population can hold sway over 49%; limited only by the language of the Constitution, and the degree of intelligence and integrity manifested by the judiciary in enforcing it!
Farfel
(03/13/1999; 13:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3322)
Thoughts About Michael Kosares....
Just wished to post a public "Thank You" to Michael Kosares for recognizing my thoughts on the EURO. It is a nice gesture but unnecessary. By simply provding a FREE forum in which to express such ideas, he effectively rewards us on a daily basis.

Actually, I think somebody should award him a special prize for his own compelling, original thoughts concerning the PM markets.

But, for now, I hope the continued success of USA GOLD will be a sufficient reward for all his efforts.

The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 13:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3323)
Warren Buffet
I have just read Warren Buffet's remarks in the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. He does not comment on his silver holdings beyond saying that he will not comment. He does say that he has made some changes in the more "unconventional" side of his investments, but he doesn't specify.

See: www.berkshirehathaway.com

Boy, yesterday was a turkey... PPI DOWN .4%? Who'd a thunk? One TV network reported that gasoline went up a penny a gallon last week. With oil up 30% recently, I suspect there will be a lot more than one penny to worry about next month.

Airlines did it again yesterday....their second round of increases already this year. Whoever said the gov't. figures are not to be trusted (ET?), gets my vote.

Hey, I just had a pleasant thought. If we all wind up taking a beating in gold, we can survive on our Y2K preparations. (Just KIDDING...gee whiz, give me a break).

Anyway, this horse goes into a bar and the bartender asks him, "Why the long face?"
ET
(03/13/1999; 16:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3324)
Richard

Hey Richard - yes, the whole monetary system depends on increased net credit or it will collapse. I know of no individual event which first started us down this path. This type of thing goes back to the Roman Empire. Here in the US there have been various periods where credit has gotten out of hand leading to a collapse of purchasing power of the underlying medium. If any single event triggered today's situation it would likely be the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Since that date, the citizens have incrementally handed over control of the value of their money to bankers and the government. We as well as virtually every other country in the world have abandoned the gold standard. This of course was by design.

I have always been a hard money advocate. My father encouraged me at a young age to read all the economic and political thought I could. It has certainly helped me over the years see what is actually going on. 'Watch what they do, not what they say', is an idea that has served me well.

You wrote in part;

'I often wonder what I will do
once the metals hit some "higher" value. I presume there will be a time to sell and enjoy some of the
rewards, but the next few years seem to have "caution" written all over them.'

This is where our philosophy differs. You said in an earlier observation that Aristotle and myself seem to be 'ultra-conservative' in our investments. That is likely correct when measured against today's 'investments'. You mentioned above that when metals reach a higher value, you don't know what you will do. From my point of view, the beauty of metals is they always hold the same value, it is other investments that change. So yes, I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is not only a simple strategy but a worry free strategy. The bulk of my savings are in metals for this reason. I do trade other investments but only with a small amount of my savings. I've always found trading futures to be very challanging but some would say I trade too conservatively in that arena also. So be it. I can sleep well.

Thanks for your response. I do enjoy helping others to see through some of the things around them that appear nonsensical. I've had the benefit of many great teachers. It is to them that I owe any success I may have enjoyed.

Let me also add my thanks to MK for providing such a wonderful resource and his learned comments. I think MK has Greenspan pegged to a tee. I about fell out of my chair when Al said they sell gold because of the carrying costs. Next we will undoubtedly hear Al claim they lease gold to earn a profit for the American people thus keeping our taxes low.

ET
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 16:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3325)
Nebraska Silver: The Common Sense Economics of Warren Buffett
I wrote the article below about a year ago when the first announcement filtered into the markets that Warren Buffett had made a substantial silver purchase. It was published in "Money World" and "Physician Digest" magazines. This is the raw version before the editors cleaned it up.

I've always had great respect for the Sage of Omaha. The very fact that he runs probably the most successful mutual fund in history from Omaha, Nebraska instead of New York is impressive in itself.

Today he published his Berkshire Hathaway report on the internet and said that he's not going to say anything more about his silver holdings -- a typically down-home response to what's become a problem for him with all the speculation surrounding his silver holdings.

He did however appear Tuesday night on ABC's Nightline program and had some comments on the stock market bubble. He said that he U.S. stock market had seen unprecedented increases in recent years and was in a "dangerous" period that could see stock values drop sharply.

"After a while the very act of stocks going up starts drawing in other people who get excited about the fact that their neighbor made some money ... and that's when you get into the dangerous periods," he said. "You never know (when the bubble will burst)." You know that valuations are high, by historic standard. You know that the level of speculation is high, by any historic standards, and you now that it doesn't go on forever ... but you don't know when it ends."

The above was taken from a Reuters report published this morning. I think that last quote explains why he owns silver. I strongly suspect that he owns gold as well though I doubt you would ever get an admission -- not at this point. I thought you might enjoy the article below at a time when Warren Buffett is probably on your mind.

There were some questions about why FOA and Another might return now -- perhaps it has to do with a subject near and dear to this person's heart -- OIL!

Many thanks for tall the kind comments, e-mails, phone calls etc. It is an honor to sponsor this FORUM.
________________________

When you grow up in a farm state like Nebraska, you tend to take in the culture of the land. There are good years; there are bad years. Sometimes the land gives plenty. Sometimes the hail gets you, or the river goes over its banks and floods you out, or drought burns up the crops and there's nothing you can do about it, except hope that you have enough cash put away to plant next year. Farmers tend to pray a lot. They also tend to plan a lot. The land teaches common sense. And common sense dictates hedging your bets. You learn to plan for the bad years as well as the good because if you don't, you're not farming any more.
When Warren Buffett bought 20% of the world's institutionally stored silver with 2% of his Berkshire-Hathaway fund during the second half of 1997, he was exhibiting some of that Mid-western common sense that has made him a living legend. He was simply hedging his bets. By logical extension, Buffett could have purchased all the institutionally stored silver in the world with a mere 10% of the huge Berkshire fund. There is a lesson to be learned here -- a lesson the marketplace quickly grasped. Buffett has exposed for all to see just how much liquidity there is in today's equity investment markets and how dirt cheap the precious metals really are. In one fell swoop, he put the luster back on the metals, and simultaneously called into question the stability of posted values in the equities market.
So why did he do it? If a picture's worth a thousand words the accompanying graph is worth a million. The charts are drawn in constant dollars, meaning inflation has been factored into the analysis. As you can see, the stock market rise, looks almost reasonable in constant dollar terms. Simultaneously, gold (and by proxy silver) has remained range-bound in constant dollars. A value investor like Warren Buffett sees the "overvalued" market as a "sell" and the "undervalued" market as a "buy". As a result. he has gone to undervalued silver and neutral zero coupon bonds and shunned overvalued stocks.
Next question: If Buffett is in silver, will he go to gold as well? The unconfirmed rumor is that he already has. Adding support to this conjecture, oddly enough, is a very old speech delivered in 1948 -- 50 years ago -- resurrected by The Committee for Monetary Research and Education. It is a speech that was delivered to a group of Omaha businessmen by Howard Buffett, a four-term Congressman from Nebraska and the father of Warren. Howard Buffett went to great lengths in this speech to outline the role of gold in a free economy and its function with respect to holding down government spending and borrowing.
"In a free country," said the elder Buffett, "the monetary unit rests upon a fixed foundation of gold or silver independent of the ruling politicians (and is) redeemable for a certain weight of gold, at the free option and choice of the holder of paper money. Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion."
Congress never listened to Howard Buffett, of course, and now 50 years later the son finds himself buying silver (and possibly gold) to hedge the holdings of his enormous Bershire-Hathaway mutual fund -- one of the largest in the world. The sound money advocacy of the political father was transferred to the financier son. This leads to a final question that will probably have to go unanswered for the time being. Is there something more to Warren Buffett's diversification than seeing silver undervalued and stocks overvalued? Does he see a more sinister outcome on the horizon? In mid-1998 the Europeans will introduce their new gold-backed euro to compete with the fiat dollar weighed down by over $5.5 trillion in government debt. Historically debt of that magnitude is dealt with by cranking up the printing press. Simultaneously, rumblings from across the Pacific hint at the introduction of a yen-based Asian currency system. Is the Sage of Omaha preparing for the dollar being unceremoniously dumped as the world's reserve currency? If so, it is one of great ironies of financial history that the very economic destruction the father tried to prevent politically would have to be hedged so prominently by his famous son.
USAGOLD
(03/13/1999; 16:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3326)
Addendum....On Another and Buffett
I was going to develop this thought further:

"There were some questions about why FOA and Another might return now -- perhaps it has to do with a subject near and dear to this person's heart -- OIL!"

I was diverted and then didn't finish before I posted.

-----

The price of oil has risen rapidly as the very psychology of survival that caused the first cartel and oil crisis in the 1970s has been resurrected. Oil is a component in the price of nearly everything. I don't know what Another is thinking about these days, but I do know that the siege mentality that gave rise to the first oil cartel is back. Saudi Arabia is near devaluing its currency. Other oil states including Mexico and Venezuela are in financial straits. Nigeria is near collapse. I could go on but there's no need.

Their best recourse is to cartellize and push up oil prices. These first successes will be motivation for stronger action in the future. I, for one, wait with great anticipation to hear what Another and Friend of Another have to say about this "new oil market."

I keep getting this feeling that we are under-going a sea change in all markets and the way markets are being viewed. The timing for their return could not have been better.

This all ties into Warren Buffett -- his comments and his hedge -- circuitously. Oil will drive up prices. In that sort of environment, interest rates start rising and you now know where I'm going with this.......the stock market, it is well known, reacts violently and negatively to rising interest rates. This stock market has lived by interest rates; it will likely die by interest rates.

Sorry for leaving all this out in the intitial post.
The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 18:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3327)
Petro Perversity
A lot of smart people seem to think that OPEC is impotent. I am not so sure. It seems to me there is a lot of difference price-wise between a world that produces 2% too much oil and a world that produces 2% too little. Surely cash-starved petroleum exporters are capable of understanding this. They have before.

Our "best and brightest" prognosticators have been saying for 18 months that Asian contagion was on its way. Some still call for a slowdown. No wonder they think the oil price increase is just a bounce. None of them saw it coming in the first place.

The beauty of all this, to those who sit at this Round Table, is that oil is by far the most pervasive element of all in the calculus of inflation. Its impact is felt in the price of virtually EVERYTHING else. Yes, that includes gold.

Yet, daily the media feed us a constant diet of "experts" who see no sign of inflation. Sometimes I think I must be dreaming.
Aragorn III
(03/13/1999; 18:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3328)
Bimetallism...and free markets
Beesting...I will address only your specific comment "I'm absolutely for a bimetallic system", and will leave the details of bimetallism to others at this most worthy of tables.
I would like to see your wish granted, beesting. Successful implementation of bimetallism speaks of ONE THING ONLY...return of grassroots-driven free markets.

The reason: There is no effective manner to affix a meaningful term of Legal Tender (e.g. Dollar or Franc) to coins of different metal when the metal in the coin defines the value. Only at the rarest of times would the free market see equivalent inherent values upon two amounts of yellow and white coins, even though the tale of Legal Tender begs that they are equivalent. Careful selection of payment in one form over the other will always present an advantage to the payer. The equivalent-value gold/silver ratio is not fixed in time, rendering an institutional monetary system inherently unstable from day one! No single price marked by a shopkeeper could consistently return equivalent values when the payment has the gold vs silver option. Gresham's law will drive the strong coin to the smelters for greater payment in the weaker coin.

An observer of a successful system of bimetallism would witness in its SUCCESS that there is no institutional Legal Tender stamped upon bimetallic coins of the realm. Coins would likely be marked by weight, and shopkeepers would post two prices--one for payment in silver, one for payment in gold. These prices would be ever fluctuating as determined by the free market.
A trip through England's monetary past clearly reveals the nightmare of institutional bimetallism.

Choose instead for institutional return to sound money, founded on gold, coupled with free markets. Then, should visitors to the free market so agree upon a price other than "coin of the realm"--say silver, paper, or polished pebbles--wonderful! Such is the flexibility of free markets.

got simplicity?
TownCrier
(03/13/1999; 19:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3329)
News you can use

HEADLINE: Indonesia closes 38 banks among key reforms--March 13 (Reuters)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990313/z.html

HEADLINE: Two top Ecuadorean banks to merge--March 12 (Reuters)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990312/bjj.html

HEADLINE: Beyond Dow 10,000 Is Uncertainty--March 13, (AP)
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990313/weekly_wal_1.html
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 20:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3330)
ET - Nice To Talk Again!
ET (3/13/99; 16:03:32MDT - Msg ID:3324)
Your input is much appreciated. I'm still new at this and mechanical engineering/documentation was my forte, not economics. I did take an accounting class six years ago at the community college and really struggled with it. Debits were sometime minus but other times were plus. The same holds true for credits, minus and plus. Not readily understood by one with 30+ years in electro-mechanical engineering and configuration management (big words for a job I truly miss and enjoyed until I got into management, but that's another story).

Re: Selling precious metals at a higher value. It seems there are a number of posts lately regarding gold vs silver ownership. Gold appears to be number ONE but I haven't read them all and now I see many posts on Buffet. I need to read today's posts before commenting. Anyhow, why I brought this up again was that I have a number of MS64 Morgans which have appreciated to the point of making a profit, and obviously will go up even more in the coming months. But. . . . I wonder wether it's time to turn my Morgans into Eagles or pre-1933's. Will the Golden Goose that we cherish so much at this round table reward one better, in the long run, than those Silver Bullets we also appreciate? Ahhh . . . that's the question I seek an answer to.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 20:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3331)
Interesting...
Aragorn III, you are either pressed for time, or else have little patience for the bimetallism discussion because you see it as similar to a childhood discussion regarding which is brighter--the sun or the moon? My guess is the latter, as you need only to defer comments until time allows. But then, your patience is certainly not in question--given the depth with which you approach many of your posts. As you have deferred the details to those others at this table, I will gladly play master of ceremonies to any that would like to take this matter further.

Our past discussion of ownership turned up some interesting thoughts. Maybe this one will too. Anyone care to weigh in on the subject? My personal thoughts on the matter support only gold as a monetary device. I too would cite history for ample support of this position, and the arguement for simplicity and 'workability' (is that a word?) can't easily be dismissed.

Housekeeping....
beesting--in today's Msg 3312 you said you couldn't believe the IMF's lousy timing of hinting at gold 'sales' at a time when the price is so low. Actually, if you can buy into my earlier proposal, the current price is of no consequence as it is simply an effort for the IMF member countries to reclaim their own gold, swapping in its place their printed currencies...'like' for 'like,' so to speak; only, at the end of the day they will each have their own gold safely IN HAND! But I do agree it sends an ugly message to a gold market that might not share my view!!

Richard, I seem to recall the first incarnations of those credit cards to be MasterCharge and BankAmericard. ---Aristotle

ET
(03/13/1999; 21:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3332)
Richard

Hey Richard - I've got a son that is studying elec/mech engineering at Kansas. He wants to work for Sprint. He's trying to pick up a summer internship over there. You math whiz guys amaze me! I'm a sales manager for a firm in Tulsa distributing trucks and parts. Economics is just interesting stuff to delve into.

I'll have to defer to MK and his cronies at CPM when it comes to coins. All I know about them is they're fun to look at. I do own both gold and silver. I do agree with Aragorn that gold is the monetary standard with silver floating about it. Here's a side note for you; 'The Wizard of Oz' was a satirical description of the debate concerning between bimetallism versus a gold standard. The debate of that day was about the banker's wish to demonitize silver leaving just a gold standard. How things have changed! Remember; 'Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Follow the yellow brick road'.

Better days, yes?

ET


AEL
(03/13/1999; 21:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3333)
silver

Whoever has not already taken in Ted Butler's views on silver really ought to do so: http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/butlerndx.html

I'd like to hear his viewpoint refuted, if anyone is up to it.

----------------------

A tidbit from Butler that reminds me of our dear (all-the-paper-will-burn) friend Another:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/butler111498.html

With the real silver long-term situation so tight as to leave you
in awe; the last thing this market needs is the largest paper short
position in history. Given the historical precedence, when the
crunch comes, paper longs will not be able to convert to physical,
as their contracts proclaim. It is just not possible. There is too
much paper and too little real metal. In the crunch, at the watering
hole, paper won't hold up. Not COMEX paper, not any paper.
Then we will learn the difference between paper silver and silver.
I can't say when this will happen; only that it will happen. In fact, I
can guarantee it will be the biggest force majeur in history.
Aristotle
(03/13/1999; 21:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3334)
to Richard:
Just like ET, I am no expert in coins. Have a chat with MK's people.
I tend to look at Pre-'33 and other historic coins (gold OR silver) as little works of art...little Rembrandt's, little Monet's, little da Vinci's, etc.
I do have a nice assortment of this artwork in my savings...but given the choice to have the oil and canvas made out of "oil and canvas" (silver) or "money" (gold), the decision becomes an easy one for me to make. If this perspective is useless to you, I hope it made you smile at the very least. ---Aristotle

A handy summary (because this post was so LONG)

Y2K is bad,
Gold is good,
"Little artworks" are very nice,
Go for the gold!!
ET
(03/13/1999; 21:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3335)
Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - the debate concerning bimetallism evolved to such a degree in it's time because so many 'common' people only held silver because gold was so 'expensive'. They feared if the bankers were allowed to decouple silver's fixed convertibility to gold, the bankers would devalue silver versus gold robbing them of their assets. I'm telling you, you have to keep your eye on these bankers. They've got all kinds of tricks up their sleeves.

I agree that gold is the better monetary standard because it is much more rare. I have no reason to believe that silver wouldn't hold a comparable relational value to gold in the long run. It's significantly more rare than copper, zinc and nickel. It's also shinier!

ET
ReverendJimBaker
(03/13/1999; 22:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3336)
Stranger angle
Recent oil price increase will really be felt in next month's eco numbers. There's no way around it. And, with an economic rebound in developing countries, oil consumption will increase. There are some good factors (add in OPEC) coming together here.

Also, as the Japanese stock market continues to offer better returns, we should see additional US Bond sales.

What's the possibility that someone with some real pocket change does some serious gold buying early into this coming week to get a bit of a squeeze (short) started. Like the oil market, once it starts rolling uphill, anti-gravity may take over.

Bake
ET
(03/13/1999; 22:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3337)
Oil

I do have some questions concerning oil and y2k. There is currently some doubt about oil producing countries ability to export come Jan 1. Apparently remediation efforts are further behind than in some of the importing countries. Some claim Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico as well as other large producers may have great difficulty bringing their oil to market. I can see this turning into a mad scramble from here on out to be one of the countries that can export. I would expect prices to rise considerably generously benefiting those that can bring oil to market. The problem however I've found with all this y2k stuff is trying to get a handle on overall demand aspects. If the world starts to tumble into a financial abyss, demand could slow considerably, leaving oil producers with a glut of product. Then couple this with a collapse of the dollar. Where does all this leave the price of oil? It looks like this market could get very volatile towards the end of the year if not much sooner.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 22:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3338)
OK --- What about my question youall ?
I shall start with restating the Question ! If POG Spot the dog goes above $300., what effect will that have on the balloon market ? One thought is that the two are not directly related and can both go up at the same time, as we have seen resently. Another thought is that if the POG is going up and the Mkts down, that the dipsters and daytraders will become enamored with the new game on the block and jump on the bandwagon, switching out of the hot internet stocks and into the mining stocks. This could really cause a boom and bust reverse of roles. Of these two possibilities, I do not choose either !! I truly believe that the dipsters will not change their ways and will go down with the ship until they have been totally sheared of their wealth. The two items, as they really are not related directly may go in the same direction and may not. The reasons why gold will increase in value is as a store of wealth and to correct the paper gold game, while the Mkts will go down because of increasing interest rates and dropping corporate profits, together with the inability of the bankers to continuously increase the debt owed by the Sheeple.
OK --- now let me heard from the brain trust of Peter A., ET, The Stranger, Aristotle, Aragorn III, and all the others !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/13/1999; 22:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3339)
grammatical errors are my speciality as Angrit is not my first language !
sorry -- but I think you can get the drift !!
<;-)
Richard, Oregon
(03/13/1999; 22:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3340)
I Think You're Right!
Aristotle (3/13/99; 20:56:01MDT - Msg ID:3331)
Yes, I think you're correct. MasterCharge and BankAmericard. I can still see the bank president's office with everyone in there for a little Christmas party in 1965. He announced those two cards to everyone and then we got our bonus, a $5.00 bill. What an innocent time for me.
backlash
(03/13/1999; 22:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3341)
Morgans or Gold?
Richard, may I take a small stab at your question regarding whether to hold Gold Eagles, pre-33's, or your Morgans.

With MK's indulgence (hopefully he is watching over my shoulder to make sure I understand his teachings properly), it primarily depends on what you wish to accomplish with your holdings. Should your goal be to preserve wealth, it is clear in my mind that Gold is the only option. And particularly at this point in time. This position now breaks into two venues.

The first venue for Gold is bullion Eagles. Now for the situation for holding them. Should the wonderful Govt. decide to do it, they can make you turn the Eagles in to them at whatever rate of fiat currency they might decide at the time. Worse yet, this can be done by simple Executive Order by the President of the US. As case history and setting precident, FDR did this in 1933. Further, failure to comply yielded a penalty, as I recall, of 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine. This technique has become known as confiscation. Still, bullion coins are currentlly demanding the lowest premium over the price of gold and therefore are a bit less expensive.

Unfortunately, as recently posted on this forum, the US Mint is rationing its bullion coins. Small denomination coins, (tenths, quarters, and half oz.) are on waiting lists and, I suspect, are going at higher premiums than just last month. That is if you can get them at all. Read 'News and Views' to get a more in depth idea of availability. (Better yet, call Mike)

Pre 1933 gold coins are the second venue to hold gold. Why pre-33's? FDR did not want to cause a problem he could not handle and exempted the pre-33's from the Executive Order. This issue was discussed at great length on this forum some months ago and it may be worth your while to search the archieves to find it if you want more detail. Nonetheless, it is a widely held opinion (no guarantee) that they will be exempted again (probably as collectable this time) from confiscation. However, the pre-33's are becoming scarce and starting to demand higher premiums whenever they can be found. Again, this comes from Mike and several other sources.

Now to the Morgans. Nothing wrong with holding them per se. Just realize that their value will be tied to silver, not gold. Only in the realm of collectables would they be able to give you the same level of value at a later date, and then only if someone wanted them enough to pay you a premium for them. Will they spend in the event of a breakdown? At what value? It would seem that 'junk' silver would be as good an investment if you just want something to be able to spend, 'just in case'.

Now you have a short, crash course over your question. But, so far, just the facts. What do you want to achieve? Spending money - - so called 'junk' silver would be a good item.
Not worried about confiscation, bullion coins would be great. You may want to consider other than Eagles. How about Canadian Maple Leafs, Austrian Philharmonics, or even Chinese Pandas as alternatives?

Really conservative? Pre-33's are the ones in my opinion. As I am able, I have been collecting a few and putting them in the 'ole safe deposit box. By the way (for all who are still with this post), I have only been on this gold wagon for 9 months. All you veterans at this site, please feel free to correct any portion of this post that you find to be in error.

Oh yes, Richard, I too am an engineer (mechanical) and a small businessman for 27 years. Sadly I had NO economics education much less exposure to finance, gold, or markets. As a result I feel a bit intimidated by most of the posters at this site because of my lack of economic knowledge. Yet I feel a comfort from having survived nicely in this world and look forward to continuing my quest for that knowledge at this forum. Have I learned much!

Best Wishes, bl

P.S. Another and FOA, it was at your feet that I have gained much of my understanding and I wish to thank you both very much for the teaching. This likewise holds true for the many posters at this site. My thanks to all. bl
The Stranger
(03/13/1999; 23:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3342)
A Trio of Harbingers
Three recent events worth noting:

1.The breaking of support by U.S Gov't. Bond prices.
2.Japan's officially declared reinflation policy.
And now:
3.The rotation of leadership in the U.S. stock market away from techs and into oils and other inflation beneficiaries.

____________________________________________________________

ET- Your posts are among the best in the forum. They are always informative and lucidly written. Please forgive me for taking issue with something you said to Richard.

I quote, "I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is....a worry free investment."

ET, if I had exchanged my dollars for gold at virtually any time in the last 19 years and left them there, I'd be a poorer man today. Don't get me wrong, I am a screaming Gold Bull right now. But successful investing requires a lot of study and a lot of flexibility. Any man who simply ties down his steering wheel is bound to run off the road sooner or later.
Peter Asher
(03/13/1999; 23:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3343)
Aristotle, Gandalf
Aristotle, #3334. Didn't some fellow named Gates just shell out $30,000,000.00 for one of those "little paint and canvas things.?

Gandalf, #3338. Which way the wind blows will depend on whether the market peaks in an exhaustion high followed by an accelerated stampede, or, a meandering "fakeout" distribution top heralded as a consolidation. The policy makers will try and orchestrate the latter, which would allow those in the know to convert to other assets.

As long as the big green economic machine keeps churning out payrolls and salaries in excess of people's break-even cost-of-living and debt service, they will invest in something! The real bubble burst will occur when the inflow dries up.

Old, old story told in stock broker training class: Client buys obscure issue on tip. Stock goes up. Says, "Buy me more." Stock goes higher. Client sells all other stocks, buys huge block. Stock soon doubles. Mortgages home and business. Buys again. Sees stock has tripled. Calls broker. Says sell me out! Broker says, "To whom?"
Aristotle
(03/14/1999; 00:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3344)
"Like a heroin addict, the U.S. economy needs continued rises in asset prices to keep moving"
Wow...I'm outta that deal! A quote that says it all, from a bleak article predicting the near-future of Australia's economy based on forcasts of the world scene. Don't take my word for it...read this, the first news I was faced with upon loggin on:
(sheesh...I'm starting to sound like our good Town Crier!)


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990314/d.html
Aristotle
(03/14/1999; 02:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3345)
Looking back at recent posts
Dang! ET, I missed you by THAT much...(holding up thumb and forefinger with a small gap between). I logged out after my post. Agreed. Gotta watch those those bankers; they are an opportunistic flexible lot, just like the IMF...or cockroaches. :)

AEL...while I was away I coaxed my silver friend onto the topic of Ted Butler's view of things, and bimetallism, too. I wish all things in life were as easy as coaxing him into a silver discussion. He has a remarkable ability to tune out all distractions at the mention of the word. He was quite familiar with the gist of Butler's arguments, and as he began to unwind his tale of silver futures between proper attention to his pint of beer and lit cigarette, I got a word or two in edgewise...mentioning bimetallism. He stopped cold. I don't know if it was the beer, or maybe a rough week, but I had to lean away because I thought he was going burst. As near as I dare quote him, he said, "What the hell are you talking about?!" I tried to frame the issue with some context, but he carried on "Do you want to talk about SILVER, or not?" Again, me with the attempt at context, and him interrupting, "Look, they don't use salt, and they don't use clamshells anymore, do they? Well, do they?!" And me being gold to the core, I changed the direction with the briefest of words, as that was all I could ever work in while he talked of silver. I said (playing devil's advocate to my personal opinion) "So you'd agree that gold is dead, then, because 'They don't use clamshells anymore.'"
Well, that sobered him up faster than the original mention of silver. He said (with expletives omitted) "That's a different deal entirely and you know it. Have you heard of Fort Knox? Look, we can talk about money for the hundredth time, OR we can talk about silver,or oil, or 'beans--I don't care. Now, do you want to talk about SILVER or what?!"

The rest was an unecessary lesson in timing being everything in the futures markets, blah blah blah as my thoughts turned to gold, not wanting to mistake the gold coin in my pocket for something else as I assembled the right change for our table's waitress.

So there you have it, folks, one big silverbug's view that silver's day AS MONEY has come and gone. I didn't dare broach the subject of a possible Y2K worst-case-scenario barter system. But having been friends for many years now, I can predict that his short-tempered answer would have been "Anything goes. Been to Russia lately?"
The Stranger
(03/14/1999; 07:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3346)
Gandalf's Question
Gandalf- The average stock traded in the U.S. is down about 15% since the broad market peaked in April, 1998. The balloon you speak of exists in some of the WEIGHTED indices only. A quick look at the advance/decline line will verify that, in recent days, it has breached even the lows set at last year's Dow Jones Industrials' bottom(about 7400). And, ironically, even with the recent surge to 9900, the new low list has exceeded the new high list on most days.

So, when you speak of "dipsters" and "sheeple", I presume you mean those who are caught up in the pursuit of that narrowing group of stocks which has continued to rise. My own sense of things is that there will always be those who mistake their own good fortune for intelligence and wind up the poorer for it.

Fortunately, I don't have to know all the answers to grow my wealth. I only have to come up with one bankable strategy at a time. The current extreme commodity price situation, coupled with the very accomodative response by the Fed, suggests a looming recovery in tangible asset prices to me. For reasons often explained by the many knights at the Round Table, gold is merely the one tangible asset that should provide the greatest leverage.

While some great collapse in the stock market may be in the offing, I would hope not. Any sudden violent distruction of paper wealth, especially in this environment of depressed commodity prices, would not help the price of gold. People who are down to their last dollars will not buy precious metals. They will buy bread.

By the way, the same liquidity which may already be starting to float commodities, also buoys the stock market. Where we can get into trouble, as Aragorn mentioned yesterday, is if that liquidity drives interest rates high enough to cause an asset shift. But such a possibility may yet be pretty remote. In the 1987 experience, the dollar steadily declined, and bond rates steadily rose, but stocks didn't collapse until the long bond crossed 10%. Today it is only 5.5%

W
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 07:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3347)
Armstrong
Armstrong "...There is little doubt that the confidence of capital has been severely shaken if not stirred. There has
come that moment when the future takes shape but the majority chose to ignore the early signals of
change. Most will wait for the bolt of lightening to strike before they are prepared to accept that the
storm has truly arrived. The undertone of the marketplace has revealed that the foundation upon which
this bull market has been based is now crumbling silently beneath the marble floors. This foundation
has been undermined ever so gradually since the Russian default and the process has now reached the
critical stage of peril...."

http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/LQ031299.HTM

ET
(03/14/1999; 08:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3348)
Gandalf

Hey Gandalf - in answer to your question. I don't know what will happen but I'd sure like to see the etrade types jump on gold stocks. Wouldn't that be fun to watch! I do agree that most will just keep on doing what they've been doing regardless of the price of gold. The idea that gold is nothing more than a commodity is pretty ingrained out there in investment land, despite Buffett's move into metals. One day investors will realize that people cannot borrow themselves into prosperity and things will change. I don't know if that will be accompanied by a low gold price or a high gold price but I would assume that any liquidity problem in paper markets should drive hard assets higher on a relative basis. When the average investor realizes that gold continues to be money and not just a commodity is when the fireworks will start. I'm not sure what would trigger this realization.

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 09:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3349)
Stranger

Hey Stranger - thanks for your kind words.

You wrote in part;

'I quote, "I believe that holding an investment in which the value never varies is....a worry free
investment."

ET, if I had exchanged my dollars for gold at virtually any time in the last 19 years and left them
there, I'd be a poorer man today. Don't get me wrong, I am a screaming Gold Bull right now. But
successful investing requires a lot of study and a lot of flexibility'.

Yes - over the last 20 years or so you would appear correct but I'm not sure we're both on the same page. I suppose I separate my savings into two categories; those which I intend to keep regardless of market conditions and those which I'm willing to gamble with in search of high returns in dollars. The bulk I intend to keep are in metals, land, a home and other tangible vehicles. I don't expect the utility of these to change all that much in the future, hence I hold them for their steadiness in relative value to my needs. My other savings I can speculate with in various other investments both tangible and intangible. I do believe the gold standard has never left the real market but has only left the paper market. Although it would appear the last 20 years or so I am poorer relative to the paper markets, I would contend I am the same relative to the real market. At some point, these two markets will come back into equilibrium if history is any guide. At that time, I suspect the paper market will have to reconcile to the real market, not the other way around. My savings in metals will climb in paper terms to the point where they would be fully valued to the paper market. All 'losses' over the last 20 years would be reconciled.

I guess it is a different perspective. I've never been enamored with a monetary system based on another's debt. It is a poor substitute for a system based on real accumulated capital. It requires the confidence of millions to hold it's value while hard assets require no confidence at all. They simply exist. I'm willing to bet in the long term on the sure thing that hard assets exist rather than the not so sure thing that debt is a superior investment. Whether I see this reconciliation in my lifetime is unimportant as my heirs will see it sometime in the future. As long as we are able to retain property rights in this world, I'm confident my savings will never be lost. If we are unable to retain property rights than we both lose.

You wrote in part;

'Any man who simply ties down his
steering wheel is bound to run off the road sooner or later.'

Yes - I would be careful not to chain myself to any investment which can't be seen and touched on occasion. I am happy to invest in that which exists rather than that which is popularly perceived to exist. Perceptions change over time but what exists simply exists. Like I said, I can sleep at night. I realize that most today would consider me foolish to not take advantage of the current belief that bankers and governments are capable of planning an economy for the benefit of all. I look at the track record of these attempts in the past and I'm not impressed with the long term results. 20 years or so is a very short period of time to judge their efforts. We'll see what happens.

ET
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 10:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3350)
Thanks to The Stranger and ET
Both of you have given me the outlooks needed to think of other impacts on my thoughts. I shall see a much larger picture now, and be able to discuss the subject much better that the friend was able to discuss the subjects of MONEY and silver. THAT person is able to concentrate on the trading of a commodity and not be bothered with "unimportant" extranious matters !!!
<;-)
FOA
(03/14/1999; 11:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3351)
REALITY?
Good day to all! I offer this as a means to consider the world, in perhaps a way not seen before. It makes use of private discussions with Another, taken place during my absence from world affairs. His words are clearly separate from mine. Will anyone recognize from where the title
came? Please do interpret these words as indeed, I do also interpret yours!


"ON THE FRINGE OF REALITY"

We travel through this world with our own notions of value and worth. Often giving little thought as to what part external forces play to impact our final conclusions upon these ideals. Nor do we fully understand the concepts that shape these same ideals in the minds of others.

"Another: My friend, "this game of chess" you play it well, yes? As do I. Truly, we understand the "rules of contact" concerning gold. If one player does touch his "most valuable piece", he must move it! But, in what direction will the "king of gold" or the "queen of Euros" be moved?
Each positioning, it does create different perception of "value" for opponent."

Truly, in this light we can see that our concepts of value and worth are clearly governed through the positioning of assets by political players. They move a strategic asset to the right and all other things on the board are reevaluated. To the left, a different worth is considered. Consider now, that all pieces, in this chess game of worth, hold a changing value in the minds of people in all world economies. Oil, copper, steel, currencies, they are, everyday, priced as to their usefulness not only to the owners, but also in the strategic value they hold in the eyes of our opponents. Those with whom we wish to trade! Only the King is held as the final player. When an opposing political entity posses your king in checkmate, we lose the strategic advantage to play the game. A king of gold gives the government the ability to declare this money game void
and start completely over. A move not taken lightly by the opponents.

Now consider the currencies ONLY, their daily changing worth, the value they hold in daily world trade and their value to us in our business of living life? A clear thinking person must agree with the conclusion that this is only a game. Do these paper security contracts really hold any
value for your life, except in their acceptance by others in trade? If our government moved an important chess player only one space, our native currency could lose all value to others! In such an event would this item still hold value for you?
Because the trading of paper securities (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.) have become the only avenue for world economic activity, we are all compelled to play this game of chess. Like it or not, your very net worth is every day, in play! And, as such, we all watch for the next move on the board. Each, in his own quiet way, ready to act quickly and purchase the "next paper asset" that appears to hold value in trade. That is, before our neighbor beats us to it. Think now, is this the way of the free market and the democratic order that one was brought up to expect? Your life savings, not at risk of being lost, just at risk of being reevaluated to a lower level of importance in commerce.

But people, what if? What if this game of Dollar chess was quietly, out of sight, being lost? How will you know to move before others do if you cannot see the entire board? Confidence is a strange human emotion. It is fragile beyond compare. Many confuse "confidence in ones holdings" with "confidence in our judgment of others confidence"! There is a big difference. In other words, we depend on the judgment of others to protect the maintain the value of our assets. In seeking real security, our position of wealth is safe and fair as long as we can grasp how others are valuing our holdings! Openly, in the interaction of daily markets that we see "how others value what we have", thereby instilling our own confidence. But, In doing such, we take for granted one major premise, "we can see the entire playing field and all of it's players in the same light as others see it"! It is here that we approach a truth that, paper wealth today does occupy "the very edge of reality"!

"Another: It is asked that a dollar be strong in gold? It is done. These many years gold price is lowered. Brokers stand tall and say "we bring gold down" and "our judgment be correct". They hold the mind of "young boys" in early years, yes? Know them not their work was a biding for the central banks. They will come to know "good judgment" in short time. It is asked for another knight in the game? It is done better. A powerful queen comes for our use, this new Euro. Now they ask this Euro be strong in Oil. It will be done! Need dollar continue be held strong in gold? "my friend, old trees die long deaths, but die they will if water comes not" " this rain of oil will no
longer find your Washington Oak"

Today, we have come to the "edge of reality" in believing that our paper contracts (cash included) are actually more valuable than the the THINGS we buy with them! For most individuals and national governments, our net worth is denominated in contracts of Delivery. The cash in your pocket is a receipt for the delivery of one dollar. Your stocks are contracts for a share of the profits in a company. Bonds, cash in the bank (CDs included) are contracts for delivery of future cash. The only value found in all of these securities comes from selling them to
someone else. A game that is played using the value judgment of another. Take your time and think slowly through this. The laws of supply and demand are muted by the accepted concept that "paper securities can all be converted into real things at the present price of real things". In the
end, this is the value judgment that everyone basis their holdings of paper wealth on. The Thought that, "someone else wants my paper assets because THEY can convert them into the things THEY need at today's prices". How easily would this fragile confidence be shattered if suddenly the payment for these Things required "Things in payment"? Would this not create a realignment of the value judgment of paper, worldwide?

Consider oil? Supply and demand rules the price, you say? I say, that is your value judgment based on the supply and demand of oil as seen in dollar payment. Now, see the settlement of oil trades denominated in Euros only and require a payment of things to augment dollar settlements.
Suddenly, the price of oil changes radically even as the supply and demand stays the same! Because of this and at the same time, worldwide, the judgment of the value of Things as
expressed in paper contracts will changes! In this light we find that the excess capacity of our life's work, as stored in the value of paper assets is no longer worth the Real Things it could be traded for.

Here, one confronts the Reality that during our long life, we did not create as much excess worth from our endeavors as we thought. Truly, all these years the Western economies produced no more assets than many Third World Countries! I ask you, for the future, in what world class
money will you hold the savings of a lifetime? And more importantly, will others judge it to have value? Will you continue to "trade gold to make more paper currency" or "will you trade paper assets to acquire more gold"? Most will agree, the choice will impact one's net worth for the rest of their life!

"Another: It is to say, "these westerners are not as rich as there currency say they are"!"

Some day you will read in the financial pages: "It is in the value judgment of paper assets that
people found the lies."

"Gold, yesterday, today and tomorrow"

Thank You for reading, FOA
Alchemist
(03/14/1999; 11:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3352)
Wisdom
Welcome back FOA. It is very comforting to read your thoughts again. I have seen the USA likened to a teenager in relative maturity and Europe as the wiser elder. Your thoughts make me see this in more clarity. It helps one see the current events from a much broader perspective and through the eyes of an elder. Thanks
jinx44
(03/14/1999; 14:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3353)
FOA
Greetings

I am very pleased to see you and ANOTHER back at our humble table. I hope and believe that you are here for reasons of goodness and truth. Your thoughts and suggestions are quite powerful in their rational and simple style. I find they resonate strongly in my judgement and serve to educate me profoundly. Thank you.

That being said, I would like some perspective on the euro. Your post says the euro is closer to gold in spirit and value than any other currency save specie. The revaluation of all paper in the coming (depression?) times to THINGS OF VALUE will see the $US and (all?) others fall. Fine and good. What keeps the euro so strong? I have yet to read any statement or rule that ties the ECB gold reserves to any mechanism of convertibility except the current manipulated commercial markets. The reality that I see is it is only the good intentions of Europe's� largest socialist nations that back the euro. The fact that they possess 15% (how will we know???) of reserves in gold is not necessarily proof that they will give me any of that upon demand. I need some additional convincing, please.

But I must say that I do like the idea that all nations should openly hold gold and the value of their paper currency be judged on the amount of gold it will purchase. If the $US has 450 billion paper receipts in circulation and 262 million oz of gold in the vault (450B/262M=$1717.56 per oz.) then I would get 1oz from the government for turning in 1717.56 receipts (less a seignorage fee�kind of like paying the govt for making an ounce of gold carry more easily for the period of time I chose to hold paper). Yes, I know that the US is probably 25 Trillion in debt-lets leave that for ANOTHER time.

I think I could live with that. Cross currency rates would be merely arbitrage to help insure that if a nation didn't live up to its� promises, they would pay for it in the international markets. Gold would no doubt be issued in accepted fractional amounts to provide change for the paper.

Anyway, what about the political and social situation of the nations that support the euro? Germany and France have moved further left. Democratic socialism and its' euro isn't a dream date for my precious daughter gold. What HONEST mechanism in the market will make and keep the euro 'strong in gold'? I could really use an answer. I want to be a believer, honest.

I just can't trust communists of any stripe - - national socialists, democratic socialists, fabian socialists, marxists, maoists, fascists (yes, fascism is socialism, it is NOT right wing of any kind.) I think I'll just stick to the physical, thanks.
Clint H
(03/14/1999; 14:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3354)
Backlash post 3341
There are three things you mentioned in your post that can cause loss of sleep. They are bullion, confiscate and Safe Deposit Boxes. A degree of fear is attached to each.
The definition of bullion is "without form or artistic value" or "not in coin form." Bullion coins were created as an exception, a way to trade in small amounts of gold with little fear of counterfeiting. Legal tender coins fall under all nation's counterfeiting laws. They are also made in quantities that will preclude them being rare collectibles with a high premium.

Bullion coins have a daily posted value. Should the government choose to demand our gold in exchange for paper the value is stated in the market place. The government can take your property but you must be compensated fair market value. All bullion coins have the same basic value. They have no rare collectable coin value.

Rare collectable coins each have a value based on many factors, all based on subjective evaluations. Each coin must be evaluated separately. It would be difficult to value one coin at a time and arrive at a fair price in a reluctant sellers mind. Exempt.

Should one choose to "bet their bullion" by keeping it in a bank "Safe Deposit Box" consider what happened in 1933. The President made his announcement on Friday evening after all the banks had closed. All Safe Deposit Boxes were sealed. On Monday morning no person could open their box without an IRS agent present.

The government now believes that billions of untaxed and ill-gotten dollars are hidden in Safe Deposit Boxes. All dollars or gold that can't be explained or tracked is subject to confiscation or at the least heavy taxes. A double dip for declaring a gold recall.

Is klinton capable of such a dastardly deed? If he does it, it will be on a Friday evening or a bank holiday.

Got Gold? Betting your bullion on a Safe Deposit Box?

This is trite stuff compared to the post by FOA. I will look to the Noble Knights, Another, FOA and MK for the heavy thoughts.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 14:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3355)
Alchemist - Msg ID:3352)
Thanks for reading! More of your thoughts will, in turn, help to broaden my perspective.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 14:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3356)
jinx44 - Msg ID:3353)
I do have a reply for you. Will send it shortly. Thanks
Rod Michel
(03/14/1999; 15:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3357)
Thank You Gold bears and general manipulators!
Without your illegal collusionary activities in the gold market, I would not be able to add so much bullion to my collection of hard assets! I mean, so what you cost me my job as a geologist/prospector, but that is okay as most of us miners are multi-skilled professionals who have tremendous transferable skills to real life projects. Being so young (in my mid 20's) truly this is a blessing to trade in worthless fiat for physical golds. Sounds like a win-lose situation for me! You get the debt, I get the assets. Surely you can see the humor in this where you will be totally at the mercy of the rule makers (who own the physical gold) come time for your retirement, because you have believe the BIG LIE that is being peddled about precious metals being a 'burden' to own or not a good 'investment'. Hey I am actually amazed at how cheap gold really is after inflation has been factored in!!

Special thanks to Martin Armstrong for short selling so much silver!! Isn't it great that I can own silver for around $5.50 an ounce? You gotta love Warren Buffet, he is the man! We sure do in my generation. Our only concern is with stupid parents who are gambling away our inheritances in stocks, and putting the house up as collateral, Vegas sure has elvolved in the 90's.

Well gotta run, and remember the Golden Rule "He who owns the gold, makes the rules". And also 'ye soweth, ye repeath'.

Good Day to all and good luck in buying/selling your gold.

Rod Michel
Aragorn III
(03/14/1999; 15:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3358)
Comments to many
Clint H
Your message shows the problems, and perhaps frightens many from the resolve to find gold for their lives. I do not believe this to be your intended purpose. Perhaps you could show what solution you believe rises to the challenge? You did mention old coins and the peril of banks. Is that wherein the solution is to be found?

ET
Thanks for your words of agree some days ago. It remains the more you speak, the less I need type. Thank you for the rest you afford to a weary knight!

Aristotle
You have done well to see both sides. Your intuition and understanding brings honor to this round table.

FOA
Your words are most welcome again, old friend! The fresh perspective you bring, vital for the well-being of all gathered here, is found in these most important words:

'...Many confuse "confidence in ones holdings" with "confidence in our judgment of others confidence"! There is a big difference. In other words, we depend on the judgment of others to protect the maintain the value of our assets. In seeking real security, our position of wealth is safe and fair as long as we can grasp how others are valuing our holdings!...'

As all eyes have been on the euro, and challenged to find the gold therein, the larger view of the playing field has been neglected. It might be inferred from your message that the day is at hand in which oil seeks payment in euros. Could this be an undisclosed part of the important production agreement to take effect on April 1st?
I believe our poster Jinx44 is a good example of the common question to be begged "We cannot see it...what is it that makes the euro strong as you suggest, as clearly it is weak today?"
Isn't it true that the answer lies not in the euro's capacity in gold, but rather that salvation in the Dollar might only be found in gold? The question of euro strength need not look for any merit if oil seeks euros; the justification becomes of consequence no longer! It is revealed at such a time that the "judgment of others confidence" (as you say so well) has been shifted away from the dollar, and this house of cards would likely collapse under its own weight. At such a time only gold will preserve ones liquid wealth...the value to be determined either by the free market, or by a one-time act of congress re-establishing some permutation of the gold standard.
Your future thoughts shall be most welcome!
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 16:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3359)
Question for FOA
First FOA, a very warm welcome back the MK's FORUM !! It was drab for a great period after your crisis required your departure. ALL the Goldhearts prayed for you in your efforts and hoped for your return. Previously, we were taught that after the Euro was launched, it would fall in value to the US$ as many would be converting from the "OLD safe fiat money" to the new Euro. That action we have seen to a certain degree. You advise now that the Euro will become strong in OIL. We can see that as a forthcoming possibility, and that could therefore make the Euro strong in Gold also, IF the rules of payment for oil are changed.
FINALLY --- my Question --- Do you feel that the timetable for these events will be within MY lifetime ? Thanks in advance. Gandalf the Goldheart
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/14/1999; 16:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3360)
FOA and Another....
Welcome back, my friends. It is good to hear your voices again. It has been too long.....
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 16:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3361)
Thank you Aragorn III
Your comments and questions to FOA are similar to mine and easier to understand. As we were thinking along similar lines, I beleive that you must be able to type much faster than I. We await FOA's guidance.
<;-)
FOA
(03/14/1999; 16:17:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3362)
jinx44
jinx44,
Hello! Thank you also for your consideration. Your question: What keeps the euro so strong?

The Euro has not been strong, yet. The greatest hurdle for this new currency was just crossed, it was born! Every known Western power in the dollar economic world hurled against this new competitor for the reserve currency spot. Indeed, it is alive today and will impact the future
economic landscape for the next fifty years, at least.
jinx44, we have to understand that in today's modern world, currencies are not strong on their own. They are made week or made strong through usage. All of the same questions you asked about the Euro could also be asked of the dollar? I state them again in a dollar context: no statement or rule that ties the United States gold reserves to any mechanism of convertibility except the current manipulated commercial markets. ---- it is only the good intentions of
America's largest socialist states that back the dollar. --- The fact that the US possess 0% (how will we know???) of reserves in dedicated gold is not necessarily proof that they will give me any of that upon demand. --- California and Michigan have moved further left. Democratic socialism
and its' dollar isn't a dream date for my precious daughter gold --- !!! You see, all of these apply, yet the dollar has been very strong these many years.
For a modern currency to be strong, it must be used extensively to denominate trade. Truly, that is the only value of a digital currency. But why promote a digital currency such as the dollar or the Euro? The answer lies with the modern world, it's the only way we can trade globally in an efficient manner. Then we further ask, why promote the Euro over the dollar. Ironically, the very
prospect of free world trade, so fought for by the American Administration, is the condition that the IMF/dollar system cannot handle! The debt built up from all of the past, unfree, projectionist old world trade is killing the transition. The policy is to sell free trade and the narrow margins it produces as they shut down entire economies because the low profits cannot service the old debt. Do you follow the logic and the problem? This brilliant, modern free trade system and all of it's benefits cannot be implemented using the US dollar as a reserve currency. It shuts off commerce that in turn limits the use of commodities such as oil, metals, food and the like. Many hail the low price inflation in the US as a victory and ignore the intent other nations had in following "free
trade". That being to promote a world economy, not just a US economy.
Enter the Euro! Understand that the increased use of commodities is a good thing. It's not just for the purpose of making rising chart pattern so speculators can sell their calls! Commodity usage creates real things and helps the lives of real people. When citizens gain real productive
mechanisms, they hold real wealth. Some would have you believe that third world people are enriched by saving US treasury bonds, not true! The only way to increase world trade, with an eye on building new consumers in all countries, is to remove the overhang of "dollar settlement".
The US started the free trade movement but quickly backed away when it was realized that the US currency, backed by debt through the fractional reserve system, would suffer sever inflation in the transition. Government guarantees would require the treasury (and Fed) to print unbelievable
amounts of new currency to cover the unserviceable debt that Free Trade would create! Now, Europe is going to finish the job using a new currency to supplant "dollar settlement". The ECB has agreed to allow their gold to be "marked to the market" quarterly. IN doing so, oil will slowly be transitioned to settle in Euros as the dollar is lowered in value against gold. The benefit to oil will be the increased world demand that a Euro settlement Free Trade will create. Once this train begins, everyone will jump on it. Why? Because it will benefit the largest part of the world
population. The dollar will implode and gold will soar in dollar terms.

So you see, my friend, the world is changing! The evolving gold market isn't about shorts being squeezed, or manipulation by banks or lawsuits. It's much, much bigger than that! As Another so often puts it "we watch this new gold market together, Yes?" Yes! FOA
FOA
(03/14/1999; 16:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3363)
USAGOLD!
Michael,
Thanks for the welcome. I see many Thoughts and little time. Much to read here. Will try to reply, learn and commit to others as this free time allows. FOA
TownCrier
(03/14/1999; 16:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3364)
News on Sunday?
FOCUS-U.S. pours cold water on LatAm dollarisation--March 14 (Reuters)

U.S.DepTreasSec Summers warned such countries would lose flexibility in managing their economies. Do YOU like to be managed?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990314/bi.html
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 16:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3365)
April gold not trading yet, however,...
For FOA, it is not our business but how do you know what you say is true; why do you say what you say -- this knowledge would go far in helping us to better understand your message. Why?

First, you speak as an insider. Therefore we must assume you know what you know because it is part of an agenda of which you have a part, a part unlike ours, which is to understand your thoughts. Second, to give true merit to your thoughts is on our part faith, much like religion. "Believe it for it is true." I say, "Tell us how you know it to be true. Of whose agenda do you speak and why?

Finally, when? When will the Euro surplant the dollar? As Gandalf so eloquently stated, "...in my lifetime...?" Do you have a word on timing? When will the evidence show itself that says your words are true, here is the proof to supplant what until now has been "faith."

Thoughts?
The Stranger
(03/14/1999; 16:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3366)
FOA
Greetings to one whose reputation preceeds him. I just wish I had been at this Table Round long enough to have experienced your wisdom. Maybe then I could figure out what the heck you're talking about.
Shek
(03/14/1999; 16:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3367)
Another
MK,
As the owner of this DF you require of posters their name and address. This leads me to believe that you must know Another's identity.
Can you vouch for his 24K?
Alchemist
(03/14/1999; 17:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3368)
Wisdom of the elder
FOA


Thanks for the encouragement to express my thoughts. I have many thoughts but have little practice in expressing them. My view comes mainly from the eyes of consciousness and in the understanding of collective levels of these as viewed through the collective psyche of the nation state. One views history not as a linear progression through time but more as an unfoldment of consciousness. This gets played out through the individual , the couple, the group, the village, the town, the city, the state, the nation, the groupings of nations that align through various needs, and the earth. The ego perceives itself as a separate entity; as has the current scientific and technological paradigm led us to believe in a similar separate self. When one begins to view the affairs of the world more through the eyes of spirit, one sees more clearly what gives rise to these affairs and what needs are being expressed through them
Thus, as with the individual self, there is birth ,infant, child, youth, teen, young adult, midlife, and elder. North America's recent history has seen birth, infant, child, youth and is now at the stage of teen or young adult. NA was basically born from those of European decent. A similar view can be taken with the new EURO currency. It has always been said that teens should listen more to there elders, but is not usually the case. I believe that Another looks with the eyes of an elder.
I will post this now as I have to go. There was more but I lost it somehow.
FOA
(03/14/1999; 17:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3369)
Aragorn III, Gandalf the White
Aragorn III, Gandalf the White

Again, thank you both for your welcome. This reply may also be addressed to SteveH! Yes, in both your lifetime! And do consider that I do not even know your age!

It should be obvious to all that I am not a trader. I do not think Another is either. Most of the observations given are offered to instill a path to follow for research, not to direct. Most gamblers (traders) try to find private information and act on it before it is common knowledge. Greed is the main motivation, certainly not the expansion of ones knowledge or protection of wealth. We often see people blindly follow the words of others without creating their own logical conclusions. No one will ever successfully manage their family wealth in this manner. Indeed, many have used the leverage of paper precious metals (including the white metals) to create great losses of wealth. Yet, Another has always striven to put the average citizen into physical gold as a percentage of their net worth. If you follow in the footsteps of giants, you gain proportionately as do these conservative people. My agenda is found in offering others an agenda that will hold true in a changing world.
Follow the news, think for yourself, observe the outcome of events in a different light. I think you will find this an interesting story as it unfolds. Yes, it is slow, but it holds true! The game of chess has many outcomes, but the objective is always to complete the journey with all of your
pieces (wealth) intact! FOA
FOA
(03/14/1999; 17:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3370)
Thank You all!
I hope to return in a few days.
backlash
(03/14/1999; 17:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3371)
Clint H

Reference your post #3354

It is clear to me that I did an extremely poor job of communicating my point to Richard, OR regarding his question of his post #3330.

Thank you, Clint, for having read my post #3341 trying to answer his question of whether to hold his Morgan coins or go to the "Golden Goose" for a better return. And if so, how to hold it?

My post was not meant to propel Richard to bullion coins much less to bullion itself. Specifically I tried to point out the actual dangers in doing so, but you added more good points that I failed to mention. Further, 'Safe Deposit Box' was meant to refer to a safe storage place. I, too, agree that the bank may not be the ideal place, but there are other 'Safe Deposit Places' that are available.

However, the point of my response specifically was to answer his question of what to do. In a short statement, "Richard, do whatever best suits the goal(s) that you wish to achieve." The balance of the post was primarily for informational purposes in order to the one might make an informed decision.

Clint, it appeared to me that Richard was having a bit of a problem deciding whether to stick with silver or move to gold. I hope that both your and my information was helpful to Richard. Further, Clint, what I happen to have been able to accumulate will be of little consequence should the IRS find it in my personal safe deposit box at the bank. I have records of how it came into my possession, and by legitimate means I might add. Likewise, (if you will review my post) the form of gold possession I prefer is pre-1933 gold coins. They are of varied origin, some uncirculated, and even a few are graded. All this oriented around a supposition (right or wrong) that my holdings will qualify as collectables should events as you decribed occur.

Sorry that you missed the point of my post. Next time I will endeavor to be more clear.


FOA

Your posts of the past two days have been truly enlightening. I personally enjoy the concepts that you and ANOTHER impart to us students. Concepts and understanding will always support when current events and trials obscure the real picture. Please continue, your efforts are not in vain.

bl
ET
(03/14/1999; 19:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3372)
On Friend of Another's thoughts

I hope I'm not intruding in someone else's argument but I believe Friend of Another made some excellent points. Putting this analysis into proper perspective requires keeping in mind that oil comprises the majority of all commodity trades worldwide. It is essential for virtually everything that comprises the modern world and consequently those producing it have a vested interest in receiving something in return for their product. Until just now, the only thing they were able to attain has been dollars. It must also be remembered that dollars are not redeemable for gold or any other hard asset directly. They must be disgorged to realize any real value. The problem as Friend of Another stated is the massive amount of dollars in circulation versus what backs them, namely future tax revenues from the American public. The oil producers have had to accept a promise to pay from future taxpayers as payment for a real asset today. It is hardly surprising they find this situation untenable. They have apparently decided to align themselves with the Europeans in an effort to obtain something real for their real asset. They have proposed exchanging oil for gold or it's proxy, the Euro, rather than accept the dollar.

Friend of Another's other point about it being difficult to transcend to this situation is well taken. Most transactions are handled in dollars today and the delay we've witnessed in this transition has likely been caused by the reluctance to embrace a new medium until it has been tested so to speak. There were many questions concerning it's introduction that have now been answered and apparently some level of confidence has been achieved by those that would accept it in payment.

Being we are discussing oil, whatever happens from this point forward will have huge consequences for those that depend on dollars being accepted for payment. If the world adopts a new standard of payment for oil then the dollars that are out there will be of less use in the world of commerce. There will not be near the incentive to hold them as there is today. They will decline in value versus the Euro, oil, gold and any other real asset because their only value has been as a trading medium.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'For a modern currency to be strong, it must be used extensively to denominate trade. Truly, that is
the only value of a digital currency. But why promote a digital currency such as the dollar or the
Euro? The answer lies with the modern world, it's the only way we can trade globally in an efficient
manner. Then we further ask, why promote the Euro over the dollar. Ironically, the very
prospect of free world trade, so fought for by the American Administration, is the condition that the
IMF/dollar system cannot handle! The debt built up from all of the past, unfree, projectionist old
world trade is killing the transition. The policy is to sell free trade and the narrow margins it produces
as they shut down entire economies because the low profits cannot service the old debt. Do you
follow the logic and the problem'?

Supply driven by excess dollar creation has overwhelmed demand creating a situation where some economies cannot earn enough dollars to service their dollar denominated debt. This is the main problem with a debt-backed monetary system. If it doesn't grow, it folds.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'This brilliant, modern free trade system and all of it's benefits
cannot be implemented using the US dollar as a reserve currency. It shuts off commerce that in turn
limits the use of commodities such as oil, metals, food and the like. Many hail the low price inflation
in the US as a victory and ignore the intent other nations had in following "free
trade". That being to promote a world economy, not just a US economy.
Enter the Euro! Understand that the increased use of commodities is a good thing. It's not just for the
purpose of making rising chart pattern so speculators can sell their calls! Commodity usage creates
real things and helps the lives of real people. When citizens gain real productive
mechanisms, they hold real wealth. Some would have you believe that third world people are
enriched by saving US treasury bonds, not true! The only way to increase world trade, with an eye
on building new consumers in all countries, is to remove the overhang of "dollar settlement".'

A Mises fan, I love it! Perhaps we're not finished yet!

Yes, this huge debt is looking for some kind of reconciliation. Despite attempts by the US to export this debt, they have found it impossible to do. Apparently the world has had enough and the debt will be reconciled.

Friend of Another wrote in part;

'The US started the free trade movement but quickly backed away when it was realized that the US
currency, backed by debt through the fractional reserve system, would suffer sever inflation in the
transition. Government guarantees would require the treasury (and Fed) to print unbelievable
amounts of new currency to cover the unserviceable debt that Free Trade would create! Now,
Europe is going to finish the job using a new currency to supplant "dollar settlement". The ECB has
agreed to allow their gold to be "marked to the market" quarterly. IN doing so, oil will slowly be
transitioned to settle in Euros as the dollar is lowered in value against gold. The benefit to oil will be
the increased world demand that a Euro settlement Free Trade will create. Once this train begins,
everyone will jump on it. Why? Because it will benefit the largest part of the world
population. The dollar will implode and gold will soar in dollar terms.'

Yeah - that's how I see it too! The game is over for the US and it's domination of world trade through its debt currency. The key phrase above is 'marked to the market'. Don't you just love it! Free markets are making a comeback!

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 20:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3373)
Storing bullion

As to the bullion storage question it seems the best place is in a foreign bank that specializes in such storage. It is not without risk but over time has proven to be secure. Always store your bullion where the richest store theirs. You may have to fly to the bank's location to open an account but from that point forward it is a matter of wire transfers and storage instructions. This eliminates most problems with holding bullion as well as instant convertibility and transfer to whatever currency is needed at the time. It's certainly worth considering for those that desire a safe, practical method of storage.

ET
ET
(03/14/1999; 20:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3374)
Shek

Hey Shek - what are you doing over here? For those that don't know, Mr. Shek is an honored poster over at csy2k. He comes up with stuff that few others see. I hope you hang out here awhile.

As far as Another and his friend go, I'm a believer in judging people by what they write. Their thoughts jive with mine as far as how the world works and their assertion that the payments system is in transition makes sense to me. The truth, like y2k, will be in the pudding. If we start to see a steady climb in gold, oil and the Euro versus the dollar we'll know. At any rate, it makes total sense to me. My only concern with the whole strategy is y2k. I'd like to see this aspect of the oil situation addressed. Over at csy2k it still seems to be indeterminate.

ET
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 20:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3375)
April gold finally ...
$292.90. Weekly shows 300 next stop. Daily shows $287.00 as the lower bollinger will rise to meet a declining price at around $287.00. So might we see a v-down to $287 then a sharp rise to $300? Awaiting the NY open...

FOA,

Thanks for responding. I note the questions you answered, the when and the why. You just left out the how but then that isn't our business anyway.

Clint H
(03/14/1999; 20:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3376)
Backlash and Aragorn lll
Backlash, you did a fine job of making your points about gold and silver. I used your post to make additional points. Thanks.
Aragorn lll, Thanks for reminding me that stating a problem without solutions is not good. There is a fear that bullion could be recalled. There is also the possibility it will not. Confiscation fears should not dissuade anyone from collecting as much bullion as possible. If it is recalled compensation will be in dollars at market value. Immediately turn the cash into other forms of gold at then market value. Not having any voids this opportunity. I believe in also accumulating as much pre 33 gold as time and funds allow. This is not advice, it's my MO.
Bank Safe Deposit Boxes are not my thing. I would rather deal with the government with gold in my possession than with a bureaucrat on why they should give it back while we come to agreement on price.
Enough on this. The Noble Knights and ANOTHER have important things to say.
Richard, Oregon
(03/14/1999; 20:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3377)
GATA
Email/website address for GATA someone? Thank you!
SteveH
(03/14/1999; 20:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3378)
GATA
http://www.gata.org/
http://www.egroups.com/list/gata/
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3379)
Richard of OR.
try www.gata.org
Chok dee krup
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3380)
senility arrives
Sorry Richard, that was for Steve !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/14/1999; 20:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3381)
WOW -- Steve, you are the fastest draw in the West !
OR I am the slowest typist !
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/14/1999; 22:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3382)
Tickets please
Just wanted to remind everyone that tomorrow is a historic "preview of coming attractions" possibly playing next January at a theater near you. The Ecuador banks reopen after a week's shutdown and it should be "interesting times."
Voyager
(03/14/1999; 23:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3383)
Catching up on three days of forum
Question:
If gold coins were confiscated in 1933, and pre 33's were
exempted, what coins were confiscated?
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 01:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3384)
April gold now...
$292.60.
el St.One
(03/15/1999; 02:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3385)
FOA / ANOTHER
I also welcome you back. I appreciate your postings now more than ever. Now I am back to reading your post two or three times, hoping that I am not missing something, or reading something that is not there. I have been a beleiver for a long time, but it is great to have you reenforce my thinking. The sand in the timing glass is running low.

Again: Welcome back you both were missed el
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 03:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3386)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
It is requested that you direct your attention to the latest arrival at USAGOLD's The Gilded Opinion:

"The Equity Culture Revisited" as described by The Elliott Wave Theorist -- March 5, 1999

A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is presented that may frighten even the most intrepid of knights! Suggest you visit in pairs or small groups.

Please follow the links from the USAGOLD HomePage, or find it directly at:
http://www.usagold.com/EquityCultureEWT.html
Silver Tongue
(03/15/1999; 05:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3387)
Question re: Gold
I hope that someone can answer this question. I've read numerous sources stating to the effect that gold coins are selling like hotcakes in the USA and that coin dealers cannot keep up on the demand. On the other side of the coin (so to speak) we have the gold market breaking our hearts like it did Friday and probably will do today. If gold is dropping globally in price, how is it that gold coins increase in price and premium. It seems that one ought to track the other unless I am missing something. I'm not talking about collectibles, I'm talking about plain old bullion coins. It seems, as well, that with oil prices apparently turning around (due at least partially to the agreement to curtail production and distribution) that this would have the effect of sending gold prices north rather than south.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 06:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3388)
April gold tracking down lower
bollinger. Now $291.60. Arggh!
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 06:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3389)
Silver tongue.
Reason gold and silver coins are doing well is because they represent the true shortage of physical AND Y2K buying has excerbated the US mints ability to keep up demand. They have allocated coins out for reportedly six months. Subsequently coin dealers have very few 1/10th ounce gold Eagles and very few Silver US Eagles. Other coins are experiencing similar shortages although Canadian mint hasn't made any similar allocation announcements.

Reason paper gold is going down is because the commercial traders have gone net short in a matter of two days from what was a net long position. Some feel this could only happen from pure manipulation and price fixing. Others say that there is a large short position of 8,000 tons which is three years production and speculators will do anything to hold gold below $297.00.

Also, sell rules for margin calls were loosened by 50% thus making it easier to sell gold short, from 20% to 10%.

Free market will win eventually but it is very disheartening to be a gold stock investor and watch these paper games transpire with no impunity.

Y2K though may be the straw to be break the gold camels back, as physical demand may actually stress the system in a way it doesn't expect.
sadus
(03/15/1999; 07:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3390)
What was confiscated?
Voyager asks: If gold coins were confiscated in 1933, and pre 33's were exempted, what coins were confiscated?
~~~~~~

As Ayn Rand might say, it's time to rethink your assumptions. Pre-33 coins are EXACTLY what they *did* confiscate. The assumption these days is that those coins will not be confiscated this time around because they are now "numismatic." However, there are no guarantees.
Here is my opinion: Once the government (through executive order no less!) has made the decision to confiscate your property, all bets are off. You are now playing a guessing game of: "Will they confiscate this? Or will they confiscate that?" Not a very fun game! One thing for sure is that it demonstrates a lack of respect for property rights, and thus nothing can be "legally safe." Which means you want to store your wealth in such a fashion that it is untraceable and unconfiscatable. I've read that some 40% of the gold in 1933 was buried in backyards across the country, and never turned in.
There is one reason for optimism: in 1933, the population actually *had* gold, which gave the government an incentive to confiscate it. This time around, the government already has it all... except for a few goldbugs here and there. Confiscating gold could add a lot to the panic without much of a payoff in return.
Still, if you trust the banks or government to hold your gold for you, you will probably get what you deserve. A fool and his money are soon parted!
The moral of the story is that if you are paying 20% extra for your coins in order to get "pre-33" coins, that's a lot of money down the drain for what is a questionable benefit. Why not buy bullion, and get an extra 20%? You are probably going to have to hide it well anyway. Of COURSE the coin dealers will encourage you to buy something with a high premium...

USAGOLD
(03/15/1999; 09:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3391)
Today's Gold Market Report: Beware the Ides of March!
MARKET UPDATE (3/15/99): Beware the Ides of March! Gold continued its southerly
trek this morning in what most commentators are calling a "consolidation." For the most
part, the slide of the past two days is probably associated with the options expiry on Friday.
It seems that the funds and gold bears in general are re-establishing their short positions
today. There was a report on Friday out of Bridge News that "one large NY trade house has
been conducting extensive buying for Chinese interests." You will recall that it was reported
here last week that Morgan Stanley was a featured buyer of yellow metal last week during
the uptrending sessions, there was much speculation as to whom it was representing. We
still cannot be certain but this is at least intriguing.

Volumes were light overseas with reports of some producer selling in Asia and sympathetic
liquidations associated with the Berkshire Hathaway report on Saturday in which the fund
chose not to shed any light whatsoever on its silver holdings -- buy, sell, hold or lease. The
anti-gold set saw this as an opportunity to trash silver and gold, pile-on as sellers and run
both markets lower. Beware the Ides of March.

There were also incomplete reports circulating this morning that French president Chirac was
in favor of IMF gold sales as part of package to extend debt relief to developing countries.
On a positive note, the Lafonaine-less German Finance Ministry -- in what has to one of its
first acts under its newly appointed minister -- said Monday, according to Reuters this
morning -- that "Bonn supported international debt writeoffs for poorer countries, but would
only back sales of IMF gold with the approval of the Bundesbank.

All in all, its a mixed bag and to this observer none of these factors will be enough to change
the upward gold trend. However, we might want to prepare for the possibility of a few days
of downtrending. We tend to go along with this observation found in FWN's midsession
report: "The trend has been down anyway," said one dealer. "Then people didn't get any
positive news. I think it pulled back any buyers. There were some buyers in the market last
week. But now they know there is no favorable news and there is selling. I think buyers are
pulling back, realizing they're probably going to get better levels at which to buy it."

A couple Y2K asides: First, an ABC News poll released this morning says that one in three
Americans are taking steps to prepare for the year 2000 problem. 10% expect serious
disruptions in their lives. 45% "expect Y2K to cause some economic problems in this
country" and 22% expect them to be serious. 38% expect social disruptions. Second, what if
the greatest stock market mania in history were to be ended by a computer bug? Well, that's
just what could happen today if the DOW should poke through the 10,000 barrier. Computer
experts are warning that the 10,000 glee could all come crashing down if the computers
cannot handle the new number or if rogue buy/sell programs are triggered, according to just
weekend Reuters story. We run into the rapidly growing fear of the number 9999 once again
-- a number which many programs designed into systems an period to end a line of code. "If
the Dow Jones closes at 10,102," Reuters says, "some computers could read this as 102 or
1,010. This has the potential to either freeze systems or trigger automatic sell programs."

Beware the Ides of March!

The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 09:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3392)
Good information abounds at the Round Table!
Great weekend everyone! I will have to make extensive use of this weekend's archives. Pass the torch!

A quick comment for SteveH who said:
"Free market will win eventually..." [Right you are!] "...but it is very disheartening to be a gold stock investor and watch these paper games transpire with no impunity."
Right you are, again. A prolonged period like this (we are now into our second year at these price levels for gold) has the potential to bankrupt mining companies. This completely kills any chance of buying low and selling high. But this period of time is a blessing for the accumulation of gold metal instead of stock. The metal won't spoil or go bankrupt. It will still be standing when its price take the dramatic move upward that we all know is in the cards. Plus, accumulating gold has the added benefit of supporting the gold stocks than anyone might be unfortunate enough to have, hoping almost beyond hope that the company might hang on long enough to see the other side of this. And indeed some have already failed, while my metal remains the very picture of health (and wealth!)

You added:
"Y2K though may be the straw to be break the gold camels back, as physical demand may actually stress the system in a way it doesn't expect."

So true! And if the paper traders continue to turn a blind eye to the reality of the physical accumulation, we might expect to see the spot price of gold remain at $290 while the premium per one-ounce coin approaches that same amount, effectively doubling the REAL price of gold before year's end. From the figures I've seen, demand is truly incredible...unprecedented. I have had remote acquintances call me, from whom I've not heard in years, asking me how to go about getting some gold. Something is afoot, and it is larger than all of us. The fact that the price reflects the paper trader's faulty perceptions rather than reflecting the physical offtake is a gift to all of us that see the bigger view. Enjoy the show! ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 10:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3393)
can you say MANIPULATION ?
Please note that the $PREM.X today started out at over ten times higher levels than was see late last week. This as pushed the DOW and S&P toward the "magic" ? levels that the media wishes to see. BUT all is not looking well as the market as a whole, looks to be off from its last Friday close. XAU is holding the 62+ level while SPOT the dog is seeing some shorts try the same old game. This may be one of the last opportunities for "cheap" Au, and I shall not pass it up today. Et tu Goldfly ? BTW, this last weekend postings were "KEEPERS" -- is it not GREAT to have FOA back at the ROUNDTABLE !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 11:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3394)
APR Au ***GC9J
Just hit low of 288.5 at about 1PM NY time !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 11:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3395)
Well Steve -- Was that what you were looking for ?
Someone really dumped a load on Spot the dog and the GC9J April gold contract, BUT the "V bottom" appears to be formed as the recovery is taking place with HEAVY volumes !! What next Steve --- the 300 level today ?
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 12:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3396)
We Have Splashdown!
If, at first, you don't succeed...
JA
(03/15/1999; 13:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3397)
Backlash
It turns out we were real close on our price of March Silver we were just a trading day early. March Silver closed today at 511.30 But they say being close only counts in horseshoes and atomic bombs.

My experience trading commodities has been much the same, I can come pretty close to figuring the price, it's the time part that is difficult.

And so it is with Gold most at this site understand that it is undervalued, so the question is when will it be valued correctly? And what will cause it to be valued correctly?
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 13:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3398)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold, Silver Close Sharply Lower

New York-March 15-FWN--Comments from European officials
about potential International Monetary Fund (IMF) sales
of gold sent the yellow metal sharply lower here today,
sources said. Sell stops contributed to the losses.
Meanwhile, silver declined on apparent disappointment
that an annual report by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
did not give any clues on what happened to its position in
the silver market.
Also contributing to the softness in both markets was
some of the Commitments of Traders (COT) data Friday,
analysts said.
Platinum followed gold and silver lower, but is also in
a technical downtrend, contacts said.
April gold fell $5.80 to settle at $287.60.
Technically, the market turned lower after it was
unable to push upward through major resistance of $296.50
Thursday, said Dave Meger, metals analyst with Alaron
Trading.
"From that fall, the market never really recovered," he
continued. "We had a weak close Friday when we couldn't push
through there. And you're seeing continuation of that
today."
Also contributing to the downward move, Meger noted as
well as a number of traders earlier today, were overnight
comments about the IMF.
French President Jacques Chirac said there must be a
solution for the debt problem of poorer countries, "even if
that means selling off a part of the IMF's gold reserves."
He made his remarks at the annual meeting of the Inter-
American Development Bank in Paris.
In addition, Germany's finance ministry indicated it
would also favor such a plan, provided it had the support of
the country's central bank, the Bundesbank. This is
significant, Meger pointed out, because for a long time
Germany either was "on the sidelines" or else had been a
proponent of holding onto gold.
Sources commented that the issue of IMF sales, as well
as central bank sales, has been in the market for a long
time. "But every time they rehash that, it seems to have
some type of effect on this market," said Meger.
Along with this, Meger pointed out that Friday's COT
data showed that the category which includes funds added to
its net short position.
He added that the events weighing on gold today came in
the aftermath of a soft U.S. Producer Price Index report
that came out Friday.
Sources also noted stop-loss selling occurred as the
gold market slid today.
Meger put initial support for April gold at $286.50,
then $285 and $282. Resistance was put at $290 and
$291.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 13:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3399)
Grrrrrrrrrr...
I sure wish that days like this would coincide with my paydays! Who wants to bet that we see $305 when I settle my accounts at month's end? Grrrrrrrrrrr... ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 13:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3400)
Bridge Gold News
Moscow--Mar 12--The Central Bank of Russia is selling off all its palladium
reserves and plans no further purchases of the metal because its stocks are
not included in the forex/gold reserves, a senior CBR official said today.
"This is why we need no long-term export quotas," he said, denying media
reports the bank failed to receive a 10-year export quota for the metal.
By Sergei Padalko and Oleg Kirsanov, Bridge News, Story .15454

NY Precious Metals Review: May silver dn 3.9%, Apr gold dn 2%

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 15--COMEX gold and silver futures both slumped today, both
falling in waves of selling which culminated in lows made towards the end of the
session. May silver settled down 21.2c or 3.9% at $5.098 per ounce after
dropping to a 2 1/2-month low of $5.08, while Apr gold settled down $5.8 or 2%
at $287.60 per ounce after hitting a 2-week low of $287. The selloff was
triggered in silver, after Berkshire Hathaway's annual report, released
Saturday, disappointed some market players when it failed to provide any new
information on the company's silver positions.

The above are reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 14:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3401)
Notice that they are not parting with gold. Settlement is in cash.
HEADLINE: Spain, Austria to contribute to Nazi gold fund--March 15 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990315/5i.html
canamami
(03/15/1999; 14:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3402)
Day of Agony
Gold has been hammered mercilessly today, notwithstanding that the yen has appreciated considerably against the U.S. dollar (usually a good omen for the POG). The bottom line: the POG (denominated in $U.S.) just cannot seem to appreciate, no matter what. Nothing - not the introduction of the Euro, nor the market and currency volatility of the past year, nor the once much vaunted speculative short position - seems to be able to launch the gold rally. In the past two years, all these goldbugs' hoped-for "messiahs" have proven to be charlatans. If one views all paper and digital currency as passing ephemera, and gold as the only true money, the weakness in the POG is not a that serious a matter. However, if one is an investor in gold stocks, today is a stressful and dispiriting day. To modify Lincoln, "Will this pass?"

Any insights on what caused this awful day?
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 14:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3403)
canamami
In answer to your question, Somebody tried to prove something. The knights will kindly thank them and proceed to hand them their own head.

In the meanwhile, my condolences to those holding predominantly gold stocks. They have suffered far more acutely than all those with predominantly gold inventories.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 14:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3404)
Something Smells Rotten in Denmark...RE: GOLD & SILVER.
The enormous drop in gold and silver prices on the basis of NO NEWS and the sudden reversal in the COT strikes me as having the appearance of a potential set-up...however, NOT a set-up for gold long investors but rather a set-up for gold shorts.

The metals prices' radical price drop along with major analysts declaring the absolute certainty that DOW will reach 10000 this week smells fishy...again, a set-up??

Once again, I believe "Breakfast Man's" parable suggesting that members of the Wall Street inner circle are about to break ranks and screw over other members of the same inner circle is seeming more and more viable.

Meanwhile, I sit on the sidelines...no matter what way the wind blows, unfortunately, I will miss out as I am not taking a position one way or another yet.

However, I am watching developments with keen academic interest.
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 14:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3405)
Bridge Gold Report
Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch said the COMEX gold and silver continued to follow
recent patterns seen after option expirations by selling off today even though
Friday's option expired with "no fireworks."
Gold was hurt by silver's weakness, along with the general rout seen across
the commodities complex, which pushed the Bridge Commodities Research Bureau
index down to its lowest level since Mar 5. Apr gold's decline was attributed by
some to follow-through selling after Friday's $2.10 slide. Profit-taking ensued
Friday after Apr hit a 2-month high of $296.50 on Thursday.
"There's no particular reason for gold to fall, there's no particular news,"
said O'Neill, noting that commodities as a group were seeing a heavy selloff.
He said that liquidation of the nearby Apr contract also continues to weigh on
prices.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
The Thinker
(03/15/1999; 15:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3406)
Gold Short Position
There is a lot of talk about the huge gold short postions held by dealers, mines, hedgefunds, etc., but it seems the bigger story is who is on the other side of that position (the long side). Do they have deep pockets with the intention of taking physical delivery? I have not seen that question addressed. Can anyone enlighten me on that subject?
TownCrier
(03/15/1999; 15:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3407)
Real things became cheap today
HEADLINE: Silver sinks on lack of fresh news from Buffett
Plus: CRB index falls 1.2 percent; Energy futures down
CBS MarketWatch--Mar 15, 1999

Everything Real is down
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/futures.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 15:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3408)
The Thinker's question
The stat I recall from three years ago was an average figure for all futures contracts in general. Only two percent represented legitimate price hedging by producers and consumers that concluded with delivery/receipt of the commodity. 98% of the contracts are passed back an forth among speculators. A VERY BIG TAIL wagging Gandalf's poor dog, Spot.
I don't know if gold futures are typical of the other futures on average. My hunch is that speculators play a much more significant role. More than 98%?!! HArd to imagine, isn't it? That is why physical offtake can be accomplished so cheaply; rules of physical 'supply and demand' do not set the price in the short term for the physical goods because they are oblivious to that comparably miniscule and seemingly insignificant element of the market.
BUT, and this is huge...over the long term these contracts must all be unwound. One long contract asking for delivery of a metal that is nowhere to be found...Whew!...at what price would cash be able to lay off the obligation to deliver? ---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 15:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3409)
canamami
I don't know that today was such a disaster. Look at the big picture. Gold is coming off a 19-year bear market. Turning the long term picture around will require a major shift in mass expectations away from disinflation and toward reinflation. We all want to just get on with it, but let's not be disappointed at every false start. For now, let's recognize this base-building for what it is.

A sudden report suggesting lower producer prices ought to be enough to disrupt any gold bull market as inchoate as this one. Do you take this as a sign that prices are about to fall? I wouldn't bet on it.

Today's flight from the metals included traders who saw what the PPI did on Friday and don't trust tomorrow's CPI to be any kinder. Many of them will be back as soon as higher paper prices, higher airline prices, higher gasoline prices, higher housing costs(motgages), etc. make themselves felt over the weeks to come.

So, hang in there my friend. Bullion prices are no lower today than in late '97, this despite having just survived the worst brush with deflation in your lifetime.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 15:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3410)
Yesterday's comments by FOA
After the opportunity to mull it over for a day, does anyone have any new thoughts or perspective of the Global Chess-match?

Does anyone think that maybe the LatAm talks of dollarization of their currencies is no more than a veil to liquidate bonds under non-threatening pretenses and to spend the dollars while the spending is good? Things are cheap in dollars NOW. Were the true intent to be disclosed, bonds would fall like a rock and dollars wouldn't buy much anymore. Kinda makes you wonder... After all, no nation would be so obtuse as to seriously place their future in the hands of a dollarization scheme; not in the face of a viable alternative. ---Aristotle
Gold Dancer
(03/15/1999; 16:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3411)
Farfel
I think I side with your observations in the gold market.
Could be a set up. I was happy to see the big drop today
not because I like seeing my portfolio go down but because
volitility precedes price movement.
After this week the price of gold should come back fast.
Then we will see the power of the longs IF it is out there.
Probably after options expiration!!!

The stock market is a different story. I give up in trying
to forcast its future. The bears have been wrong too long
to have credibility. That includes me.

So I just stick to the undervalued gold market and
await the move up. Today was UGLY in a beautiful sort of
way.

Thanks, GD
USAGOLD
(03/15/1999; 17:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3412)
Update....The Beat Goes On.....
The interesting thing about today's gold and silver sell-off was the lack of any substantial reason for it. I talked with several traders who said the market was essentially featureless. In the Bridge News report this afternoon, Roger Chaplin points out that Warren Buffett could have just as easily added to his silver holdings as subtracted based on his statements from Saturday. So where does the mainstream press justify its pretense that Buffett was the cause of the sell-off. It doesn't add up. In fact the one thing I could say without hesitation about Buffett's remarks is that he went out of his way to be obtuse. In the same Bridge report an analyst from Barclay's points out that if Buffett would have been liquidating some of his position something would have leaked. Nothing did.

As for gold, Merrill Lynch's Bill O'Neil said "There's no particular reason for gold to fall, there's no particular news." Even if you take the Chirac comment seriously, sophisticated market players know that it will take until next year before the subject can even be discussed in an actionable format, and even then it remains doubtful the sales will actually take place.

So why the nearly $6 drop? Not surprisingly, Mr. Insider tells me it was the bullion banks and commodity funds leading the selling. Morgan Stanley and J Aaron came into the market as sellers this morning early and there was piling on toward the end of the session from a variety of sources. Today's action looked hauntingly familiar. There have been several similar instances over the past few months -- one or two day big sell-offs where the shorts pick a price and then ancillary players pile in to drive it still lower. These usually turn out to be one or two day wonders and the market struggles back up again.

What I find odd about all the markets these days is that the only market phenomena Wall Street finds useful is momentum.... Fundamental analysis has no meaning not just in gold but in stocks as well. Technical analysis tells you nothing. It's become a joke. In any market! Wall Street houses could close up all of its research departments and nobody would even realize they were gone. All that matters is what the big traders are doing and all of them are playing follow the leader -- IN ALL MARKETS!

The only thing that matters is who is doing what to whom. The markets no longer reflect a plausible, quantifiable or justifiable reality. They've, in fact, become unreal. That is why I find the Elliot Wave Theory article over at the Gilded Opinion so interesting.

The choice for most investors is to either join the party, play along and hope for the best. (In which case I would earmark you a candidate for fleecing.) Or stand back and let nature take its course with a reliable stash of real money stored nearby. Perhaps it is the realness of gold that makes it such a comforting holding for the modern investor in this era of the greatest mania ever visited upon the face of the earth. Most sense that something is wrong.

By the way, because this move lacks anything close to a fundamental cause, I'm going to rate it another one-day wonder courtesy of Wall Street's big trading houses. At CPM the phones rang constantly today -- a very active Monday. I talked with several clients and whenever I mentioned that gold was down $6, they didn't particularly care. They have other concerns. The beat goes on.........

We could have a few more down days, but I think today was overdone....We could get another quick turnaround.

Oh boy....I hate it out here on the limb....
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 17:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3413)
S.J. Kaplan --- You gotta love this guy !!
Gold Mining Outlook by Steven Jon Kaplan
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com.
Updated @ 6:00 p.m. EST, Monday, March 15, 1999.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Ignore the traders' commitments--at your peril!
IT'S ONLY A PAPER MOON: On Monday the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 finished the day at a new all-time peak of 34.68, up 0.34, according to Dow Jones News. By almost any measure, including the ratios of price to book, total market capitalization to GDP, and dividend yield to bond yield, the last time any equity market was so overvalued was in London in 1720
COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities declined substantially on Monday, with precious metals closing lower except for palladium. Gold triggered numerous speculator sell stops highlighted by Friday's traders' commitments as it sank $5.80. Silver plunged 21.2 cents, platinum slumped $2.70, and palladium gained $1.55.
KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question (from Mr. Mike Ballanger): To what do you attribute Monday's collapse in the gold price? Answer: Whenever there are a large group of speculators who are long any commodity, there are likely to be sell stops that these speculators place to limit their losses. The location of these stops is usually easy to predict, so on any given day, traders who temporarily establish a short position can "gun" for the stops. As the first set of stops is triggered, their sell orders cause a cascading effect. This most often happens on Monday, though the reason for this calendar pattern is unclear. No doubt Friday's release of the traders' commitments made it clear to the world that
there were thousands of speculator long positions in gold that were vulnerable. In order to hit the maximum number of sell stops with the minimum amount of capital, traders usually wait until the highly liquid markets in Europe close before doing most of the damage. Such was certainly the case today.
*****Thanks SJK --- another lesson learned!
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/15/1999; 17:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3414)
Gold Dancer
Please don't blush, but I find a lot of wisdom in what you just posted. Sometimes serenity is hard for a trader to achieve. Usually, having done one's homework, is what makes the difference. Apparently, that describes you.

I wouldn't fret about having misjudged the stock market, either. The average American stock peaked last April and has declined about 15% since. The advance/decline line has lately been trading BELOW the levels of last year's DOW bottom at 7400. In fact, even as the DOW hit new all time highs today, most stocks were down.

I am afraid the same liquidity which will send prices (including gold) higher this year accounts for the continued strength in a minority of stocks. Your choice is either to chase those overpriced behemoths, buy into the declining remainder or find another way. Obviously, I believe you have selected wisely.
sadus
(03/15/1999; 17:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3415)
Today was great!
I don't know about you guys, but today was awesome for gold. I must have added at least 60 ounces to my portfolio.

A thought...I suppose you've all seen the Alan Greenspan article "Gold and Economic Freedom" linked at the bottom of the main page at gold-eagle. Here's a quick synopsis:

1) Government is large and powerful because it spends so much money.
2) Government is able to spend so much only because they deficit spend, borrowing the difference from the Fed.
3) The Fed is only able to loan this money because of their ability to create money.
4) This means that the ability of banks to create money is the direct cause/enabler of big government. Therefore, government hates Gold because it directly restricts the size of government.

I have realized, they don't care how you vote! With your money in the bank, you are already making the most effective vote you can make in favor of Global Socialism. After that point, does it matter if the Democrats expand government quickly or if the Republicans expand government slowly? You lose in the end either way.

Have you ever seen those people who go into McDonalds and order a Big Mac, Large Fries, and a DIET COKE? Seems rather stupid...what's the point of drinking a diet coke if you are going to gorge yourself on a fattening Big Mac?

That is what I think about those people who vote for smaller government but then put their money in the bank. They are essentially supporting the system that makes big government possible in the first place!

The problem was, where else can I put my money? If I put it in GOLD, I am unable to spend it without converting it back, and thus losing whatever I spent on the premium. I always had to budget: "Ok this money goes into gold, that money is for bills and groceries, etc."

There must be some way for me to store ALL my money as gold, but still be able to spend it directly out of that pot, in order to pay bills and day-to-day expenses. My own solution is that I am now using E-GOLD.COM as my bank! I'm not involved with e-gold other than as a happy customer, but I had to share my glee in being able to finally extract myself from the disgusting and fraudulent system of modern fractional-reserve banking.

Try it for a few paychecks, pay a few bills with it. Support gold... it will certainly support you. Just remember: from this point on, if you hold dollars, you are knowingly and deliberately choosing fiat over gold, even though you had a choice not to. Actions speak louder than beliefs.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 17:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3416)
April gold again at $287.60
See the silver eagles in this repost. I don't see how they can even post a price. Have you tried to buy any lately. Silver Eagles are NIS (NOT IN STOCK). Maple Leafs at MONEX are one-month out on delivery.

Date: Mon Mar 15 1999 13:25
moa (Bulk wholesale coin prices.) ID#269128:
Copyright � 1999 moa/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Selected coin prices Monday
Gold Coins
Bid Chg.
American Eagle, 1 troy oz. $307.10 off $ 3.00
American Eagle, .50 oz. $155.00 off $ 1.50
American Eagle, .25 oz. $78.90 off $ 0.80
American Eagle, .10 oz. $37.70 off $ 0.30
Austla. Kangaroo, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
Aus. Philharmonic, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
Maple Leaf, 1 troy oz. $303.50 off $ 2.90
China Panda 1994, 1 troy oz. $307.10 off $ 3.00
Krugerrand, 1 troy oz. $298.70 off $ 2.80
U.S. Silver Coins $1000 face
value pre 1964 circulation. $5183.80 off $64.30
U.S. Silver Eagle, 1 troy oz. $7.70 off $ 0.09
U.S. Platinum Eagle, 1 troy oz. $381.80 off $ 1.60
Bulk wholesale prices. Source: M.T.B. Bank
sadus
(03/15/1999; 17:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3417)
To make my point more clear:
Just to clarify my point from my previous post:

A lot of people today (and in this forum) see gold as an investment, as something that competes with stocks. But we also know that gold is money, and thus it competes with dollars.

If you are able to choose gold over dollars, as money, are you? That is the freedom that e-gold gives to me.
PH in LA
(03/15/1999; 17:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3418)
Heartfelt Welcome Back to FOA and Another!
"So you see, the world is changing! The evolving gold market isn't about shorts being squeezed, or manipulation by banks or lawsuits. It's much, much bigger than that! As Another so often puts it "we watch this new gold market together, Yes?"

GREETINGS! FOA and Another, and welcome back after what seemed at times an interminable absence!

I, too, have absented myself from an active role in these discussions of late for the simple reason that comprehension in your absence has eluded me these several months. Interminable miniscule fluctuations in gold's price long ago became meaningless even as lawsuits were launched under the banner of "manipulation!" with gold obviously forced into compliance to protect those shorting it to its present historic low level. For some time, it has been obvious that there is nothing left of a free market in gold and/or silver. As USAGold eloquently comments: "The interesting thing about today's gold and silver sell-off was the lack of any substantial reason for it." I certainly don't pretend to understand anything worth commenting upon here, and have not felt like I have had any insights worth posting for some time. You and Another could not have returned at a better moment. The unceasing search for meaning that is served up daily to explain microscopic moves in gold and mindless oscilations in silver have grown all too stale. There must be more to the picture that we are missing. Let's hope that your renewed input can clarify a bigger picture. Until that happens, I for one (together with Farfel?) am standing aside.

PS. Does anyone have a URL yet on rumors of a large-scale resignation in the ranks of the EU Commission?
Gandalf the White
(03/15/1999; 18:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3419)
PhD of LA's Question
The notices of the ECB at www.ecb.int/ have not posted any such items as of today.
<;-)
Phoenix
(03/15/1999; 18:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3420)
ANOTHER
Come out of the closet, o wise one.
He who speaks the truth, hides not his face.

Who are you?
Why is it that gold goes DOWN when you are UP?
beesting
(03/15/1999; 18:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3421)
Computers and Bimetallism
Aristotle and AragornIII: Continuing the discussion on bimetallism,there is one factor present in todays world that was not invented yet when the world,long ago enjoyed,the Gold and Silver standards--COMPUTERS!!! Computers are now interconnected to the point where modern society is panic stricken at the thought of breakdown.(Y2K) However,if we introduce a worldwide bimetallistic floating monetary system I think it could work because of the computer,after problems from Y2K are over.2001?? Computers calculate numerous trans-actions right now on a world wide scale.The next step as I see it would be for the computer to calculate the price of a given transaction converting the then current price of silver(smaller change)and Gold from world spot price in ounces or grams to the floating price of the product being bought.BINGO,we're on a world Gold and silver standard.Please don't jump all over me yet I'm sure many details would have to be worked out.Local businesses would have to program in their profit factors'sales taxes,etc.
My Gold mentor(since passed on)from many years ago had a favorite saying I'd like to share with the other Knights: Average people talk about people'smart people talk about things,and geniuses talk about ideas.

Voyager#3383 and backlash#3341 confiscation of Gold:The same mentor I mentioned above was involved in the Gold and mineral business as an assayer in New York City(possibly for the government)during time of confiscation,his words to me about confiscation went something like this:Gold by government decree was no longer to be used in every day transactions!Many company's had(especially in the western U.S.)minted their own Gold tokens to pay company employees when government money was not available(pre-1933 probobly late 1700's and 1800's)some are still around.Placer Gold was excepted in many places,just as it can be exchanged for paper money today.That was outlawed.
The major change according to my friend was, all newly mined Gold had to be sold to the government in exchange for government approved paper money at a government set price.A government agent was stationed at every working gold mine located on U.S.soil,to make sure this policy was implemented.This policy quite effectively shut down the than thriving Gold mining industry in the U.S.to this day.IMHO only the Government approved biggest mines are operating now.Similar to whats been happening in farmland USA today.

Mr.ANOTHER and FOA:To me sharing your thoughts,perceptions,projections, and insight on world economics,is as value-able as Gold,I can use this knowledge to plot mine and my family's course on the chessboard of life,as I so choose.A large THANK YOU!!!

Mr.Gandalf#3338:Your question,If the price of Gold goes above $300 what effect will that have on the stock market?
The picture that came to my mind when I thought about this question was a gigantic vehicle made of one pound paper blocks,each block represented one dollar,wallowing thru space,being propelled by new blocks being forced under the base,with so much weight movement is slow motion.Under the right conditions the blocks could be slowly removed,and repositioned,or the blocks could come crashing down.Gold $300 should't effect the vehicle to much,Gold $400,$500 or higher could get many blocks repositioned.From where I sit your guess is as good as mine.Hope an over active imagination doesn't offend anyone.............beesting
Phoenix
(03/15/1999; 18:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3422)
Whole EU executive committee just resigned.
European Commission to resign: source
BRUSSELS, March 16 (AFP) - The European Commission was Tuesday on the point of resigning en masse, a senior official said.
The source said Farm Commissioner Franz Fischler had already offered his resignation and that the other 19 commissioners would do so imminently.
The moves follow the publication on Monday of a damning report on the commission's handling of fraud.
The report, drawn up by a five-member panel appointed by the European Parliament, accused the commission of losing control over fraud and corruption in its ranks.

Comment: Euro is dead. ANOTHER great "prediction" just in time.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 18:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3423)
Test
Test
Ray Patten
(03/15/1999; 18:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3424)
A Y2K update & A CHALLENGE TO A QUEST!
Chevron Oil (CHV), quarterly report (10-Q), 11/6/98:
"Because of the scope of Chevron's operations, the company believes it is impractical to seek to eliminate all potential year 2000 problems befor they arise. As a result, Chevron expects that its year 200 assessment and corrections will include ongoing remedial efforts in the year 2000."

Marathon Oil (MRO), annual report (10-K), 3/8/99:
"The lack of accurate and timely year 2000 date impact information from suppliers of automation and process control systems and processes is a concern. Without quality information from suppliers, specifically on embedded chip technology, some year 2000 problems could go undetected until after January 1, 2000."

Conoco (COC), annual report (10-K), 2/26/99:
"In the plant systems area, all but two of the Company's business units have completed their inventory and assessment audits; the remaining units are expected to complete this work by the end of the second quarter of 1999. The Company is relying on vendor testing and certification with validation through limited internal testing and/or industry test results. Downtime for normally scheduled plant
maintenance will be used to conduct testing, with corrective action expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 1999."

Mobile Oil (MOB), quarterly report (10-Q), 11/12/98:
"There are, however, an almost infinite number of additional risks which are simply not assessable and for which, therefore, contingency plans cannot be developed. There are the risks of failure for year 2000 reasons of one or more systems or relationships with external agents which, individually, Mobile does not judge to be materially important but whose failure could trigger a cascade of other failures for year 2000 reasons, the combination of which could be materially important or could prevent Mobile from inplementing contigency plans it has developed. Such a combination of failures could also have a material adverse effect on Mobile's result of operation, liquidity and/or financial condition."

Exxon (XON), quarterly report, 11/12/98: Don't worry, be happy.

Texaco (TX), annual report (10-K), 2/25/99: Don't worry, be happy.

I CHALLENGE BY FELLOW GOLDEN KNIGHTS OF THE ROULD TABLE TO A QUEST!
Let us quest for the grail of truth about what the next near will bring us. Our government won't tell us, but this same government has decreed that all public companies must tell their shareholders what they are doing to prepare for the year 2000. As you can see from the above quotes, this is interesting reading. And it's all right here on the internet. If we each take an industry and report the results right here on this magical forum, in a few months, we could be the most informed group in the world about the year 2000. Search and Ye shall find.

THE MAP:
1. Go to: quote.yahoo.com (no www).
2. Get a 'basic' quote on your favorite company.
3. In the 'more info' box, click on 'profile'.
4. Click on SEC (raw filings).
5. Click on the latest 10-Q or 10-K reports and scroll down
to "Year 2000 Readiness".
6. Post all interesting quotes to your fellow GOLDEN KNIGHTS.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 19:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3425)
PH in LA....Europe in Chaos
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990315/19/news-eu

If the EURO collapses, you can be certain the Wall Street houses will
CROW over the positive benefits to the US Dollar and American stock and
bond markets. All that European flight money, you know.

What else is new? After all, Americans loved the Asian misery, they
laughed at the Russian horror, they rejoiced over the Brazilian
crisis...they'll just go into absolute over-the-top ecstasy at the
prospect that Europeans are also headed for disaster! That's just the
way things are in Clinton's "perverted" America...The more foreigners
eat SH_T, the happier (and richer) Americans become! Ain't life
grand?

However, the LAST thing America needs right now (from the perspective of
US exporters) is a strong Dollar.

Moreover, if the EURO should destabilize, thereby precipitating havoc in
European financial markets, then although there may be short term
benefits for the US Dollar and markets, unfortunately EURO collapse
could be the final straw leading to European financial market collapse.

It seems to me that if Europe goes down the tubes, then America will
find it impossible to maintain its special "oasis" status. With
Europeans pouring flight money into American markets, then
super-inflation/stagflation cannot be avoided. The dismal reality will
slap Americans in the face, despite any governmental distortions of PPI
and CPI.
Farfel
(03/15/1999; 19:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3426)
Test.
Test Test.
SteveH
(03/15/1999; 19:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3427)
TA
$285.50 bottom. Two -- maybe three -- more down days, then maybe four up days to around $290-$291 (that is what the tea leaves are saying, in my opinion).

Monthly chart shows gold actually to be in a move away from a lowering bollinger. It is quite possible (nothing is given in this game) that gold is actually in week one of five to six up weeks that could see gold at $310, and if not $310 then perhaps $300. If gold hits (not closes] $292.75 or higher this week at any point, then this would add one more data points to proving that theory.



April gold now $287.20.

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html#update
WhisperingLow
(03/15/1999; 20:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3428)
MAYBE MANIPULATION ISN'T ALWAY THE REASON FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES!
GOLD (& commodities), CASH, BOND & EQUITY MARKETS are constantly in competition for our investment dollars.

I posted this a few days ago as one reason why gold call buying might be increasing.

Let's say a person has a million invested with 10% of that in gold in the form of mutual funds (could be gold equities or physical). He sees downside risk on this exposure but requires the gold position as a hedge against a market or fiat currency crash. Also, he sees the equity market continue to outperform this gold position.

One solution might very well be to buy long-term out of the money relatively inexpensive call options on gold to match his position. This would give him the opportunity of liquidating his current gold hedge while allowing him the opportunity of reinstating that hedge with a cap limit for the period of time covered by the calls. This procedure would remove the potential downside risk and free up additional investment capital for more productive positions.

When equity markets continue to advance euphorically ... even the most solid gold bug might look in envy and decide to employ such a strategy. GOLD MIGHT TEMPORILY GO DOWN AS MONEY GETS ATTRACTED AWAY AND INTO EQUITIES.

Today gold looked vulnerable while both bonds and equities improved in value. It is only natural to expect some migration from (safe haven) to (join the party).

And meantime if we choose, we can have our own pary buying more gold on the dips.
Richard, Oregon
(03/15/1999; 21:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3429)
Morgans Anyone?
When I mentioned Morgans, I believe I opened the dialog box a little. What I am seeking is an opinion(s) to the following:

1) I have a number of MS64 Morgans which have appreciated nicely in the last year while gold, for the most part has been flat. I've considered trading the Morgans in for gold, either pre-1933s or bullion of some sort, but the Morgans, for this time anyhow, have out performed gold (my pre-33' have only gone up a little). I believe the Morgans would hold an "easily recognizable trading value" (Y2K), unlike double eagles, etc. If I wait say six months or so, the Morgans could command a considerable greater percentage than they do now but, . . . . . I may miss the gold explosion which most likely will blow the Morgans away. What to do?? Do I sound like I'm whining. Does anyone follow me and have an opinion?

2) Regarding confiscation and pre-33s, Morgans, bullion. Is it common belief here that pre-33s and Morgans would be safe under the previous "confiscation" decree but bullion would not? It is my understanding that initially all gold was to be confiscated but then an amendment exempted pre-33s?

3) If you did NOT have your pre-33s, Morgans, or bullion in a safe deposit BOX, would the G-men be able to confiscate your goodies, even under some stupid decree? Just wondering where to bury this stuff, you know. (How does that go, yea when they can pry my fingers off the handle, or something like that.)
turbohawg
(03/15/1999; 22:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3430)
EWT STU
This comes from tonight's Elliott Wave Theorist Short Term Update as written by Steve Hochberg, one of Prechter's analysts. Whichever way the move, there would be reasons to cheer.

>[April Gold] closed below $290 today suspending bullish prospects. This break appears to carry larger bearish significance for two reasons. First, the advance from the recent $284.30 low (Jan. 27) traced out a corrective pattern, which means the one larger trend remains down. Thus new lows beneath $284.30 should be seen, and this in turn places the late-August low of $270.75 in jeopardy, basis the spot price. Remember, as the newsletter has consistently outlined a break of the August low would forcefully signal that another leg down is underway in gold's larger bear market. There is no significant support until beneath $200. The second reason pertains to the latest release of the Commitment of Traders data by the CFTC. Page 9 of the March issue of EWT showed a chart that revealed the Commercials (the smart money) had recently pushed their net long position to levels that have usually resulted in moderate bounces. The latest figures released Friday evening, which encompass a small price bounce in the two weeks to March 9, show that the Commercials have sold a stunning 77,499 contracts to go from a net long of 71,812 to a net short of 5687. This aggressive selling of gold by the Commercials, coupled with a bearish wave pattern suggest that something big may be about to happen in this precious metal. Odds favor a decline. It would take an immediate rally that carries back above last Thursday's $296.20 high to revive bullish prospects.<
PH in LA
(03/15/1999; 22:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3431)
More Problems for the Euro?
For the sake of the Euro, I sure hope there is less to this story than meets the eye!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000283800036613&rtmo=Vqrq6MwK&atmo=hhhhhhhe&pg=/et/98/5/21/weuro21.html

Thursday 21 May 1998
A HIGH-security hologram stamp designed to protect 13 billion new euro notes from forgery has been stolen from an Air France jet, prompting fears that counterfeiters are already equipping themselves to flood Europe with fake euros.

The one-off original stamp, needed to make the holograms embedded in the euro notes when they are issued in January 2002, was entrusted to Air France in Paris by the Brink's security firm on May 12 and placed in the hold of the Paris-Munich flight AF 2522.

On arrival in Munich, Air France staff discovered that the small, 2lb parcel containing the stamp was missing and raised the alarm. A search of the plane yielded no clues and Air France says it cannot be sure if the package was taken in Paris, where the flight was delayed for 20 minutes, or in Munich.

Yesterday, an Air France spokesman confirmed that the company had been aware of the contents of the package, which was under "specific surveillance". The airline, which is legally responsible for the theft, has filed criminal charges against "persons unknown".

The stamp was made by Hologramme Industries, a small French firm near Marne-la-Valle�. It was on its way to a German company, based near Munich, which will be printing the first euro notes. Their introduction on January 1, 2002, represents an opportunity for any fraudster sharp enough to make a plausible copy of the high denomination 500 euro and 200 euro notes - which will be worth around �350 and �140 each.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000283800036613&rtmo=a45WBJ4J&atmo=HHHHHH8L&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/99/1/31/wmaf31.html&pg=/et/99/1/31/wmaf31.html

31 January 1999
THE Italian Mafia has printed millions of counterfeit euro banknotes which are already in circulation, police intelligence sources have told The Telegraph.

The disclosure is the first "concrete evidence", as one officer described it, that criminal gangs are stockpiling huge amounts of euros in order to flood the currency markets when the notes are officially brought into circulation in 2002.

Officers from Britain's National Criminal Intelligence Service, which gathers information about international crime, said that the emergence of fake notes so soon after the euro's launch this month confirmed what they have long feared - that the new European currency will be accompanied by a huge rise in money-laundering, counterfeiting and bank robberies.

The new evidence comes just weeks after Serge Bertholme, the treasurer of the Bank of Belgium, gave the most candid acknowledgment yet by a European central banker of the dangers the new currency poses because of its susceptibility to organised crime.

He told a conference organised by the London law firm Stephenson Harwood: "The risk for counterfeiting will be very high since the euro banknotes will be widely used. Organised crime is increasing and modern reproduction technology offers the opportunity to produce fairly good copies of any printed picture."

He said that the European Union's institutional framework for fighting forgers was "far from . . .satisfactory". Although the euro would circulate freely inside and outside the euro-zone, legislation and law enforcement agencies were nationally based. This "dramatically" increased the counterfeiting threat, Mr Bertholme admitted.

Italian police, who have been liaising with NCIS and Europol, the EU-wide police force, say that the fake notes have been designed using the website on the internet which contains details of the currency.

The notes are in circulation because many people in Italy believe they are already legal tender and have been duped into exchanging them for lire. Although the euro has been traded by banks since January 1, notes and coins will not be introduced until January 2002.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 22:55:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3432)
What does this say for the dollar?
"The risk for counterfeiting will be very high since the euro banknotes will be widely used. Organised crime is increasing and modern reproduction technology offers the opportunity to produce fairly good copies of any printed picture."

For so long the US dollars were so simplistic in design, and are so widely held...imagine the mountains of counterfeit bills that must be out there. A nation's problems are rarely unique.
Aristotle
(03/15/1999; 23:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3433)
Great quote beesting!
"Average people talk about people'smart people talk about things,and geniuses talk about ideas."

Also, I don't think you have this to fear at our fairest round table: "Please don't jump all over me yet..." I would hope that all ideas could be safely presented and discussed.
You must admit that it is ironic that the means (computers) in which remonetization of silver might possibly be made feasible as you propose, is generating large interest in the use of silver as money through their potential for FAILURE.
Definately ironic.
Since we are discussing ideas, why should the line be drawn at silver within this remarkable money algorithm. If adding silver is an improvement upon gold alone, wouldn't we be equally better off by the addition of copper, iron, tin, etc to the mix? A fair question, as I am simply extending your premise to yet other metals. If ONE is not enough, aren't ever-more better? Where do we reach diminishing returns? Shouldn't money be kept simple and functional if the possibility allows? Just questioning the tenets of life in these united States. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3434)
Ecuador
Intersesting outcome when Ecuador bank's reopened. From Exite news.

"But with over half of the banks' $8.6 billion deposits frozen for a
year under a new decree, bank deposits actually rose Monday
and the battered sucre closed 25 percent stronger against the
dollar."
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3435)
beesting
I first saw that quote in a comic strip around 1958. One guy says "great minds talk about ideas, average minds talk about events and little minds talk about people." Second guy says " what shall we talk about?" First guy (with S.E. grin) "lets talk about people" Your version sounds like a more recent politicaly correct variant.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 01:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3436)
Aristotle, PH.
Re #3431 & #3432. I could see something like this, in either currency, driving people into only transacting through their checkbook or debit and credit cards. Even in a rural environment we only use cash these days for fast food or movies it seems. Cash may become, like outhouses did, phone booths are, and the post office soon will be; something only the poor have to use.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 02:33:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3437)
beesting
Re post #3421--My perception of the desire for a gold or bi-metal standard was to keep values of exchange constant. One would then not lose their earned entitlement through the fluctutions of fiat money. However, you are, if I understand correctly, proposing an exchange system wherby what one receives for product or labor would be controlled by the rise and fall of gold and silver prices as determined by commodity trading.

In that scenerio, someone planning say, on closing a billion dollar skyscaper purchase or corporate takeover, could afford to manipulate the spot price in their favor,prior to closing the deal. And, of course, everyone's savings would be at the mercy of those commodity markets also. (Could be even worse than with common stocks).

For a P.M. standard to exist, those metals can not also trade in a free market. They must be sold only to the government at the prevailing "fiat" rate. Personally I think that a gold standard can be abused as much as any other form of recording the exchange of commerce. If governments have the will; they will create the way!
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 05:15:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3438)
April gold firming at $287.90
Reading: VSE and ASE Canadian exchanges announce merger, but where they go nobody knows (my guess is Vancouver, as they have a newly computerized trading system (of course computers can be moved, but not without disruptions, thus my opinion of it remaining in Vancouver. One-month and three-month lease rates both up, and according to some means shorting fodder a plenty. Frankly, though, I don't see it much below $285.50. Silver looking pretty cheap but their lease rates fell out of backwardization and now are in the black. Twenty EU officials quit or were fired. All in all a quiet day...heads up.
Phantom
(03/16/1999; 08:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3439)
Where do I find the most recent posts from FOA ?
I'm new here.
Greetings to all at this exciting site.
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 08:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3440)
Today's Gold Market: No good reason for yesterday's drop in PMs
MARKET UPDATE (3/17/99): Gold continued its downtrend this morning though the
slide was a bit more subdued than yesterday's drubbing. Silver, on the other hand, got taken
to the woodshed again this morning giving up another dime or so in its pricing. Yesterday's
action in gold was interesting not so much because the yellow metal was reacting with good
reason to some major market event, but because of the distinct lack of a good reason for it.

There was the announcement by French president Chirac that he might favor IMF gold sales
to help debt ridden emerging third world nations, but this announcement lacked resonance.
Any IMF sales are at least a year away from an actionable format, and both Germany and
Japan came out strongly against the sales right after Chirac made his statement. (One
wonders how long Chirac can make this sort of noise without being shouted down by the
gold loving French people. I don't expect this latest Chirac dalliance to go very far. After all
this is the land of one of history's greatest gold advocates, Charles De Gaulle, and the place
where just about everybody has a stash of gold under the mattress.)

No, gold went down because the big commodity funds and traders on Wall Street, led by
JAron and Morgan Stanley, according to our source, Mr. Insider, drove it down. They, I
would assume, have there own reasons for shorting gold so prominently. Mr. Insider says
that he finds it "very very educational that about 65,000 shorts were scared out by just a $7
or $8 rally in gold. Then, on Monday, the shorts came right back in when the news
benefited their opinion in the marketplace." Indeed, it is.

Bridge News published two important World Gold Council reports from Asia:

--- "China has the potential to become the world's largest gold market in the next century, if
deregulation of its gold market continues as the country's gold demand from the middle class
rises, the local South China Morning Post today quoted the World gold Council's manager
for China, Emily Li Yin-ming as saying."

--- "Gold demand in India, the world's largest consumer, will rise between 5% and 10% in
1999, but smuggling is also making a comeback, a World Gold Council official said today."

The European Central Bank reported this morning that its gold stock remained unchanged
for the week ending March 12 at E99.6 billion.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue,
cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style
mystery surrounding the yellow metal?



Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
T. Remital
(03/16/1999; 09:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3441)
choo-choo..
The big guys forced a good many little fellows to jump off the train this AM..Watch out for
a big reversal before the day is over..could be the last attack we will see against the pre-
metals ..as we make way to greater hieghts.
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 10:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3442)
Phantom's question
First of all, WELCOME Phantom, to the ROUNDTABLE !! you will find FOA's first post (after a long dry spell) at Message # 3268 on 3/12 ---- Lots of reading to date. Have fun and let us hear from you often.
<;-)
jinx44
(03/16/1999; 10:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3443)
jinx44
In the last week or so, I have watched the dealer premiums on Au and Ag eagles go up. Even if the manipulated bullion market goes nowhere or down, there continues to be a brisk trade in bullion coins. Is this the start of a two-tiered market?? One that reflects a more accurate picture of consumer demand for the metals? I hope so. It would be nice to see an increasing divergence between what the controllers say the metals are worth and what real people will pay.
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 10:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3444)
The Hobbits have gone back to bed.
The fireworks show is now over !!! The DOW has broken 10K at 10,001.78 --- XAU has dropped below 60 only to rebound again ! --- Spot the dog was inundated to fall to 281.50 before wiggling free to rebound again, and the APR Au contract was pounded with shorts to fall to 282.0 before the goldhearts were able to stop the drop. THAT WAS IT ! Now, the battle cry is heard from the forest and all free and thinking persons are preparing to each do their part to right the wrongs of the evil ones and rebuild the base of true value --- GOLD. The WAR IS NOW BEGUN. Listen and watch as the Ents begin to hum and slowly move toward the walls of dark repression. They will lead the battle.
<;-)
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 11:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3445)
Parsing Clinton's Recommendation of IMF Gold Sales...
Clinton said...

"Today I ask the international community to take actions which could result in forgiving $70 billion in global debt.
Our goal is to ensure that no country committed to fundamental reform is left with a debt burden that keeps it from meeting its people's basic human needs and spurring growth," he said.

What the Alleged Serial Rapist REALLY MEANS....

"God, I pray all the IMF countries forgive all that African debt! Then, someday, they might even forgive the America's surging National Debt as well...otherwise, we're Sh_T up a creek without a paddle!"

Clinton said...

he would work with G7 colleagues on a plan for "complete
forgiveness" of bilateral concessional loans, rather than rescheduling as is done at present, and forgiveness of up to 90 percent of bilateral non-concessional debt.

What the alleged serial rapist REALLY MEANS....

"Hell, if Americans were stupid enough to forgive all my crimes, then maybe these IMF nations will be just as stupid and forgive all that African debt. Let me see how far I can stretch this forgiveness crap! I'm on a roll, baby!

Clinton said....

He said Washington would support gold sales by the IMF to do its part and additional contributions by the United States and other countries to World Bank's Trust Fund to help meet the cost of the initiative.

What the alleged serial rapist REALLY MEANS...

"Hell, as long as nobody sells our US Treasury Bills, I'm all in favor of this debt forgiveness crap! Hey, I know what I'll do...I'll tell Chirac and Shroeder to sell gold, then Anerica'll buy the stuff, and hand over billions more of that green US paper sh_t in exchange. Harharhar....I just love to con all those sh_t- for- brains, EURO retards! Harharharhar....."
backlash
(03/16/1999; 11:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3446)
Phoenix - - Post#3420 3/15/99

Respect for others.

This, a precept that I think is securely protected by the Knights of this Table Round. IMHO, this site attracts a very wide scope of attendance both for lurking and posting. Around this world, many peoples do not have the security and freedoms enjoyed at the location of this forum. As a result, there are those residing in other countries that, for very good reasons, wish to retain anonymity. That is little to ask should one consider their potential position.

Therefore, trying to elicit information from others that they wish not to reveal could drive them from this site as a poster. Such a consequence could possibly remove the THOUGHTS of some highly revered posters at this site.

Personally, I do not wish to let my identity be known. Mike knows who I am and that is sufficient. If my postings are irrelevant and/or useless, they will be ignored and I will soon cease to post; if relevant, then discussion will ensue and validate the postings. It should be hoped that all postings would be judged based upon content rather than source. Indeed this site is rich in knowledge and information sufficient for much thought leading to understanding.

Phoenix, please do not take this personally. I am not picking on you, just trying to pose another point of view regarding the identity issue. As an aside, I happened to notice that just prior to the absence of Another and FOA, there were numerous speculative posts regarding their identities. Did it have anything to do with their absence? I don't know and chose not to speculate, but it was quite coincidental.

In the spirit of all good Knights, shall we respect each others' privacy and ponder our speculations individually.

Best Wishes. bl
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 12:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3447)
Goldman Sachs Going Public...But I'd Rather Buy Horse Manure

It goes without saying that Goldman Sachs and its "mentor,"
Treasury Secretary Robbin Rubin, have caused immeasurable damage to gold investors and commodity producers in general.
Thanks to their actions in the gold market, Goldman has successfully bankrupted numerous gold mining companies, thereby throwing tens of thousands of gold employees into the streets. However, the upside is this: the Goldman traders can now order a $1000 bottle of wine with every dinner on account of the enormous profits they have reaped from the gold carry trade.

Therefore, I am all too happy to trash this company mercilessly to all who ask my opinion of it. In fact, this morning, a millionaire aquaintance in Bev Hills asked me what I thought of the Goldman Sachs IPO, and I said "SELL IT SHORT LIKE YOU'VE NEVER SOLD SHORT BEFORE!" "HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF THE WORD, "INSOLVENCY?" "IS ABBEY JOSEPH COHEN A WOMAN OR IS SHE REALLY A HERMAPHRODITE?" etc, etc.

Various gold shorting institutions have spent the last few years spreading the most malicious negative, oft absurd gossip about gold and gold companies, to the significant detriment of gold investors. They have declared war on all goldbugs...and NOW I SAY IT IS PAYBACK TIME!

GOLDBUGS...your ship has finally arrived. No, I am not speaking of a gold bull (that still remains very much in doubt). I am saying that the GOLDMAN IPO represents a fabulous opportunity to let the world know what you really believe and feel about this company. Eye for an eye....let this company HAVE IT! I've already begun providing the most profound, erudite analysis of all this company's shortcomings...its various achilles heels, etc. They and their conspiring gold shorting brethren have wiped out a good deal of your net worth these last few years...it is now time to do likewise.

Yet, you need not resort to their dirty tactics....simply TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT GOLDMAN SACHS...that is sufficient.

I will begin by parsing a paragraph from a Goldman Sachs press release...

Goldman Tuesday filed with government regulators to become a public company through a $3.45 billion offering of up to 60 million common shares. This would represent about an 11 percent stake in the firm.

This change will allow us to secure permanent capital to grow; to share ownership broadly among our employees now and through future compensation; and to permit us to use publicly traded securities to finance strategic acquisitions that we may elect to make in the future," Jon Corzine and Henry Paulson Jr., the firm's co-chairman, said in a statement.

What Goldman REALLY MEANS is this:

We desperately need this IPO so we can use our publicly traded securities to finance the huge loans we've taken to sell the gold market short and prop up this bubble stock market these last few years. Unless we can get the IMF to unload their gold, then we don't have a hope in hell of covering our gold loans this year...and if this stock market falls apart before we get our IPO together, then we will be the first investment house to go under. We're moving AS FAST AS WE CAN ON THIS ONE, BABY!
Aragorn III
(03/16/1999; 13:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3449)
Peter Asher--msg 3437
I saw your thought, "In that scenerio, someone planning say, on closing a billion dollar skyscaper purchase or corporate takeover, could afford to manipulate the spot price in their favor..."

Think instead in this manner: Gold does not have a 'price' to be manipulated. Gold has only a 'weight'!
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 13:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3450)
Phoenix..
Bye Bye, Phoenix. Personal attacks are not allowed at this site -- the who's why's and wherefore's do not matter. No personal attacks....plain and simple. Funny we never heard much from you until now. As a matter of fact, you've made zero contribution here. Adios.
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 13:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3451)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold Tumbles After Clinton Imf Comments

New York-March 16-FWN--President Clinton today added
his name to the list of world leaders who are suggesting
that perhaps some International Monetary Fund gold reserves
should be sold to help provide debt relief to some of the
world's poor countries. And as a result, gold futures got
hammered for the second day in a row.
Silver also finished softer on more long liquidation as
lease rates continued to come down, and also continuing a
negative reaction to the lack of substantive news about the
metal in a Berkshire Hathaway report issued over the weekend.
April gold, which on Friday had traded as high as $296
and settled at $293.40, today tumbled as far as $282. The
contract settled with a loss of $3.70 to $283.90.
The yellow metal tumbled Monday when French President
Jacques Chirac commented that there must be a solution for
the debt problem of poor countries, "even if that means
selling off a part of the IMF's gold reserves." This view
was echoed Monday by the new German government, provided
that it was also supported by the Bundesbank.
Then gold fell some more today as President Clinton,
during a U.S.-Africa meeting in Washington, also suggested
that gold sales should be considered to provide for debt
forgiveness, a number of traders and analysts reported.
"The gold market is experiencing some renewed fund-type
selling in reaction to reported comments from President
Clinton that he would be in favor of IMF gold sales to fund
debt relief to poor countries," said Dave Rinehimer, head of
futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
He did note, however, that the market shouldn't have
been surprised since Vice President Al Gore earlier this
year had spoken in favor of such gold sales.
The recent news about possible IMF gold sales is coming
at a time when the market had already been working its way
back down after being unable to penetrate technical
resistance to the upside last week, commented Rinehimer.
But while the potential for IMF gold sales is the main
focus of the market, said Rinehimer, he offered the view
that the move is a "little bit overdone." If there are any
such sales, he said, officials will likely conduct them in a
manner that would avoid a major disruption in the market.
"I don't think they're going to dump 5 million ounces
of gold in the market. Even if it is approved, and that's
not going to happen overnight, the amount and timing would
be such that it shouldn't significantly alter the overall
supply in the market.
"I think they'd be conscious to spread out the sales
over a period of time to not disrupt the market."
He said the U.S. and European nations have significant
gold reserves and will not want to depress prices.
Rinehimer put support for April gold at $277, with
resistance at $287.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3452)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Gold hits 6 1/2-mo low on Clinton
By Darcy Keith and Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

New York--Mar 16--COMEX Apr gold settled down $3.7 at $283.9 after tumbling
to a 6 1/2-month low of $282.0 on remarks from US President Bill Clinton urging
the IMF to sell gold to help poor nations. May silver settled down 5.5c at
$5.043 after falling to a 2 1/2-month low of $4.955 early in the session, with
some players still seen liquidating positions on disappointment that Berkshire
Hathaway this past weekend failed to provide any new information on the
company's silver positions. Silver trimmed some of its losses into the close,
however, on feelings the sell-off might have been overdone.
* * *
Heavy sell stops were triggered in gold on the move past $285, accelerating
gold's sudden downturn following reports of Clinton's remarks, and pushing gold
through several support lines. COMEX locals were said to be the most aggressive
sellers.
Clinton today reiterated the long-held policy of the US of supporting
International Monetary Fund gold sales to help with poor nation's debt relief.
Clinton made the remark about gold during a speech at the State Department
concerning Africa. In outlining a series of steps to help African economies,
Clinton mentioned "support for gold sales by the IMF to do its part." (See story
.19121)
While US Vice President Al Gore has stated his support for IMF gold sales in
the past, this is believed to be the first time Clinton publicly voiced his support.
"It's not good news, but it's not a firm announcement," said one dealer.
"The market is concerned with the bigger implications of does this mean a
spillover change in policy for the US."

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3453)
Commission members resign
EU Hopes Crisis Will Kick-Start Reforms--March 16, (Reuters)

Resignation of all 20 members of the European Commission...NOT to be confused with the European Central Bank!
Lots of related links on this page.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990316/wl/europe_9.html
TownCrier
(03/16/1999; 14:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3454)
More Bridge News on IMF Gold
An IMF spokesman confirmed today that the International Monetary Fund is
considering proposals for selling IMF gold reserves to raise funds for debt
relief to poor countries, but said no decisions have been made on timing.
US legislation from 1983 requires congressional approval of IMF gold sales,
if proceeds would benefit a specific group of countries. With its control of a
17% share of IMF votes, the US could block a move to sell gold, which requires
an 85% majority. (Story .20439)
Market watchers said Clinton's remarks spurred funds to go short and
liquidate positions. Some suggested Clinton's remarks sparked such a sell-off
because it closely followed French President Jacques Chirac's remarks earlier
this week on potential gold sales. Chirac called for solutions to tackle
multilateral debt of poor countries, including gold sales.
Ian MacDonald, executive vice president at MKS Finance, said that "leaders
are shooting themselves in the foot" because as the gold price goes lower, it
hurts the IMF and hurts developing countries, many of which depend on gold
production.
He said that with the fall in the gold price Friday, and the increase in
open interest, there had to be substantial selling into the market. While
central banks continue to deny sales, "if there are not direct gold sales,
someone somewhere is doing a large amount of mobilization," he maintained.
He said that when Gore made comments on IMF gold sales at the Davos meeting
earlier this year, there was so much opposition it didn't seem to have an affect
on the price. However, now that the French are saying that they will support
gold sales, it has spooked the market, he said.
"This market is still fundamentally weak and it looks like there are
more of these sales to come," said MacDonald. "It still smells and feels
like a bear market."
One source suggested gold has been on a downward spiral lately and Clinton's
comments only sped up the move to the downside. He added that the amount of gold
the IMF may sell would not be that significant anyway as it would be disposed of
over a long period of time. Also, it may take a long time for Congress to
approve the sale, if they choose to approve it at all, he said.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
The Stranger
(03/16/1999; 14:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3455)
From the Every Cloud has a Silver Lining Department...
Hey, did you guys notice what the mining stocks did today? The XAU was UP some .72, the last I looked (at 4PM NY time). Come to think of it, the stocks just weathered a $14/oz bullion drop rather well.

On another matter, I don't want to defend Phoenix. I don't have any idea who he is. I like the harmonious atmosphere in this room. I have never felt a greater sense of friendship anywhere. As a late arrival, however, I do share his apparent puzzlement over the near reverence with which we treat FOA and Another. Their names, the fact that they come in two instead of one, the way they fade in and out of communication, the speaking in parables, it all strikes me as kind of religious. I am not sure Another has even posted in the two months I have been here. Yet, the fact that he might even be thinking of posting seems to create an awful lot of excitement. Would some gentle knight please fill me in. I ask out of respect and affection for all.
sadus
(03/16/1999; 15:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3456)
Stranger...
FOA has served as a conduit for ANOTHER's thoughts. ANOTHER started posting, I think originally at Kitco. He posts anonymously but he has a very interesting theory. He has also made several specific predictions that later came true exactly as he said they would, and he talks as if he has some type of inside knowledge. I think some of his thoughts are posted on this site, linked from the front page. But if you really want to know what it's all about, get the book "Footsteps of Giants" that MK is selling.
Believe me it's worth it.
backlash
(03/16/1999; 15:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3457)
Stranger Post #3455

Agreed on the silver lining. Only wish it were gold, then again, maybe it is. We wait and see.

Your question regarding Another and FOA.

Mike, at my expense (please bill me), please send Stranger a copy of "In the Footsteps of Giants". Stranger, after reading the book, please spend some time to absorb the THOUGHTS and concepts presented therein. You may well not agree with all you read; however, there is much to contemplate. And much food for thought as well.

While I am not sure I agree with everything contained in the book, I truly appreciate the fact that concepts are presented in a different light than we have been used to seeing them. As time passes and I learn more on the subjects prsented at this forum, I must admit that I keep harking back to material presented by Another (and agreeing on more points). I perceive that Another falls into the 'Great Minds' category of thinkers as discussed in several posts of the last two days. He presents concepts and food for thought without forcing agreement. This, to me, is the sign of a truly good (no, GREAT) teacher.

You will need to go back to the earliest archieves available to get some of his/their postings before their absences. After you have read the book, please let me know what your thoughts are. Many of the Knights of this table honor Another and FOA for the teachings of their ideas inasmuch as they stimulate our thinking. Is that not the point anyway?

Good luck in your obvious quest for knowledge.

Best Wishes, bl
Phantom
(03/16/1999; 15:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3458)
Excitement about ANOTHER and FOA
Dear Stranger:
These two gentlemen are worth the excitement.
Personally, I have read "In the Footsteps of Giants" and followed their contributions at kitco.
It was especially the contributions of ANOTHER that I started to understand the importance of gold as money in the international financial markets.
Just now it only seems that the role of gold as the queen of all currencies is unimportant. That's part of the great manipulation of minds which is permanently happening.
Besides, these contributions put my attention to the Bank for International Settlement in Switzerland and it's role in the global financial markets.
The knoweledge with which ANOTHER speaks is authentic and original, coming from a spirit who knows what he is talking about. You don't learn these kind of insights at Universities, during seminars for economics.
beesting
(03/16/1999; 15:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3459)
Us-ing Metals for Money
Aristotle,I have been searching all day for my reference books explaining the old English system of weights of metals equal value in their old monetary system.I can't find my references.Grrrr.However,from memory it seems their system of weights and measures tied into their monetary system.Can anyone out there help to research this?

Putting that thought into the current discussion,"us-ing metals for money"Again,with planning I see this as a feasible plan us-ing the metric system,for a worldwide Gold based monetary system,and the magic of computers'satelites, and telephone systems to coordinate transactions.Keeping honesty and integrity as the most important part of the plan.World supply of physical available metal would determine coin prices(supply and demand)on a floating system much the same as the current U.S.gasoline prices at the pump right now.
For information purposes the largest Gold coin minted in my book of world coins is the: 10,000 YUAN .999 Gold Wt.156 ounces.How would you like to feel that jingling in your pocket.............beesting
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 15:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3460)
Beesting --- The Hobbits want mo info, PLEASE
This 10K Yuan coin of 0.999 Au ---- did you say one hundred and fifty-six oz. ? 13 (thirteen) Pounds ? please tell us of the dates of striking, the contents of both sides, the size and how many of these pocket breakers are available. Thanks in advance.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 16:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3461)
Question for Another received by e-mail...
Dear Mr. Kosares:
I hail from Alaska and mine placer gold.� I check your site frequently as I'm sure you can understand
my need to have an appreciation for the future of gold.� For a "little guy" like me, times are very dark.�
Your site is a lighthouse when it comes to gleaning the inner workings of the gold from how the
freeway of urban thought would have us think.� The gentleman known as Another has written that a
day may come when the government advises it citizens to hold gold and that mines will be taxed in such
a way so as to offset the resulting reduction in capital gains tax revenue.� My question to him is this:�
will such circumstances result in squeezing the small mines out of business for good?� Will such a
governmental pursuit be masked by an apparent victory for the naturalist and enviornmental lobby in
that only the largest miners with the deepest pockets will be able to afford the regulatory hoops
government will force miners to jump through in order to mine?� Will this move you speak of spell the
end for precious metals mining and precipitate a complete federal takeover of all state and private
lands?� If true, wouldn't that mean civil war, or, could it be that a world war would justify such a
course?
thank you
sjs
ps thank you for the monthly market report.� Excellent reading!�
Voyager
(03/16/1999; 16:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3462)
PRE 33'S
Sadus & Backlash

Thank you for your answers. Although in mu mind the question still remains. Perhaps MK could advise on confiscation.

Phoenix

You missed the point of this forum.

What is important is: what you are NOT who you are.
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 16:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3463)
With respect to my last post...
It might be fun to see how some of the other bright lights at this site might answer the question below and then we will see how Another answers it (should he choose to).

So have we to say to our friend from Alaska?
USAGOLD
(03/16/1999; 17:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3464)
Voyager....Confiscation
My seafaring, Viking friend...

The government confiscated gold bullion ( in brick form ) and left alone gold coins simply because it had difficulty determining what was rare and what wasn't. Under the constitution, Madison and Jefferson, remembering the confiscation of assets by the crown, made sure that an eminent domain clause appeared in the constitution. Thus the assets can not be forfeited without just compensation. The government's primary goal under Roosevelt was to stop the run on the banks that had already started and keep people from converting currency to gold. If you had money in a bank, you stood a good chance of losing it or being separated from it by bank closures. Gold, an asset which is "not" simultaneously someone else's liability, did not (does not) suffer the same disadvantage.

In depressionary or deflationary scenarios when assets are being incinerated by bankruptcy and general collapse in paper asset values, gold remains unshakeable and unassailable simply because it stands on its own as money of last resort, without assistance.** Roosevelt wanted to nip the run to gold in the bud -- hence the confiscation, his very first act as president and one of the first executive orders. The pre-1933 gold coins were a small irritation compared to what would have been caused if massive amounts of money would have moved into gold in the form of bullion and out of the monetary system. For that reason they exempted the coins and concentrated on stopping the big players from converting to gold. We hope the same common and judicial sense will be applied in any future confiscation thus the advice to convert current dollars to pre-1933 gold coins. As you already know, we can offer no gaurantees that this strategy would work. We simply hope that past precedent will carry the day.

By the way, the initial confiscation order went out in April, 1933 (if I remember correctly) and the exemption was a Christmas gift to gold holders having been issued December 26, 1933. So many good Americans had already turned in their gold at $20.67 per ounce long before the exemption was issued. As you know the government then upped the price to $35 after most of the gold was confiscated.

In the end, I believe that the small additional premium the investor pays to become an owner of pre-1933 European gold coins is a small price to pay for the additional level of insurance. I would add that at today's contrived prices the extra premium could very well be a non factor. In the month of January, 1999 the Brazilian real went from 350 per ounce of gold to 600 per ounce of gold in less than 15 days! As Aragorn III so eloquently stated (and won a one tenth ounce Philharmonic: It was like lightning in the night. We generally recommend at least half of one's gold holdings be in the form of pre-1933 gold coins. Many have gone beyond that figure.

** Even in Robert Prechter's dark scenario of a collapse he is predicting the DOW to go to 800 from 10,000 and gold from 285 to 185. I disagree with Mr. Prechter's views but he has given great study to the deflationary scenario. You can see that stocks go down by over 90% and gold goes down by not even half. You see the point I'm trying to make -- gold depreciates at less rate against not just stocks but real goods, thus it shines as a preserver of assets. For a real historical example, 1933 serves well. Gold actually went up (even though by government decree) while the price level collapsed. Those who had pre-1933 gold coins not only survived; they prevailed -- to steal a Nobel laureate's phrase.

More on this some other time and I trust that this answers your question.
Quixote
(03/16/1999; 18:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3465)
A question...
As I understand it, the argument runs that gold is the ultimate currency, a pure form of value which connot change or be manufactured. However, that argument seems based on the premise that people are rational enough to recognize this unique value of gold.

I don't find this to be the case, people are idiots.

What happens to the value of gold if the majority of people, concerned with acquiring basic necessities, don't recognize gold as a legitimate medium of exchange. What if they remain content, even patriotic, about fiat currencies?

Quixote
FOA
(03/16/1999; 18:36:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3466)
EURO!
I will be back in a few days to spend some time and discuss several of the views written here. PH-in-LA, you should, perhaps, stab the Euro again, it isn't dead yet! However, I do understand the skepticism.


NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - (PARTIAL PRINTOUT)
The euro, which had fallen as low as $1.0816, recovered to end above $1.09 in New York as traders began to take a generally positive view about the crisis in the EU.
bmacd
(03/16/1999; 18:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3467)
Good Reading
Hi all. I read a great article today, and would like to share it with you. The easiest way to get there.....
www.nationalpost.com, then click on Financial Post. Under Investing and Personal Finance is an article by Jonathan Chevreau about Gold Bugs finally having their day.
Haven't posted at all in ages (I miss it), but I'm still lurking when I can.
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 19:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3468)
April gold in green at $284.50
Ok, listen up everyone. I may be reaching here but TA shows gold in a shake-out maneuver and ramping up for a bounce over $300 as early as Tuesday next week but very likely in next two weeks, maybe three. Incredible (and gutsy) as that may sound, look at daily and weekly gold chart. She is showing the classic bounce maneuver. If weekly chart closes above $286 then that improves its chances. I can not offer the event or events that will precipitate this move but (barring anymore alleged flagrant manipulation of extreme measure) this is what the charts are saying, in my opinion. So, I would appreciate someone reminding me in a few weeks I said this and I am hoping I can say (and I bet you are too), "I told you so" and not "whoops, you win some, you loose some."

And this in from GATA:

Mailing-List: contact gata-owner@egroups.com
X-Mailing-List: gata@egroups.com
X-URL: http://www.egroups.com/list/gata/
Delivered-To: listsaver-egroups-gata@egroups.com
X-Originating-IP: [193.220.72.12]
From: "Go Gata"
To: gata@egroups.com
Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 16:23:34 PST
Subject: [GATA] VIEWPOINT: Don't Forget The Big Media

A GATA VIEWPOINT
by Farfel

GATA's plea for gold investors to mount write-in campaigns to senators,
congressmen, and gold mining executives is certainly a good start. Yet,
more fuel must be added to the fire.

GATA must also go after Big Media as well, particularly giants such as
CNBC that constantly purvey anti-gold agitprop to the public on both
conscious and subliminal bases.Start at square one: there is a
continuing debate as to whether or not gold is a financial reserve/de
facto currency or merely a commodity. If gold is to be considered a mere
commodity, then its price must fall a lot further. On the other hand, if
gold is still a pandemic currency, then its price is certainly far too
low.

So, it is no small thing that CNBC treats gold as a mere commodity in
its daily financial reports. The gold price is always listed with other
commodities (such as soybeans) and is never quoted under currencies.

When CNBC provides a daily quote on the value of the Yen, Euro, and
Pound, then why is the price of gold not listed at the bottom? After
all, gold is convertible to currencies all over the world... However,
one cannot say the same thing about cattle, for example.

Is it not preposterous to suggest that gold and copper are equivalent
items in terms of their respective functions in the global economy?

Do central banks hold copper reserves? Does the Bank of International
Settlements accept copper as a currency? No, but the same international
bank DOES accept gold francs.

CNBC's negative treatment of gold is a form of mass conditioning. It has
been going on for so long now that the general public accepts it as a
fact. When CNBC provides interviews with gold analysts, then why does it
always prefer to provide the "pro-gold" perspective from the World Gold
Council? In doing so,CNBC once again treats gold as a mere commodity.
After all, from the public perspective, what is the difference between a
trade group such as the WGC and the various trade organizations that
promote milk, pork, or tobacco.

For a proper pro-gold perspective, CNBC must seek out opinions from
Central Bank governors, currency traders, treasury officials, etc. Such
people would lend credence to the idea of gold as money, a financial
reserve, and pandemic currency. Yet, on CNBC, you will never hear
comments on gold from the "money creators" and their absence from the
debate reinforces the gold-as-mere-commodity theme. Instead, CNBC
prefers to trot out commodity traders at large Wall Street firms for
comments on gold.

No matter what they say (pro or con) about the metal, the very fact that
COMMODITY traders are always the ones making the comments tells the
world that, "gold is no longer money."

n conclusion, every time a Big Media outlet such as CNBC treats gold
like any other commodity, there should be a flood of protests from gold
investors. It should be strident, chronic, and forceful. The protest
should begin at square one.... get CNBC and its ilk to treat gold as a
currency.

Everytime CNBC reverts to treating gold as a mere commodity, LIGHTUP THE
SWITCHBOARDS AND SCREAM!! If such protests don't work, then the GATA
class action must also serve process against Big Media in its
unquestionable conspiracy with Wall Street investment houses to "talk
down" the price of gold.

If I were Mr. Murphy, I would let Big Media know that they too can
expect to be targets of GATA litigation unless they change their
collective tune. Maybe the warning itself will be sufficient to effect
change.

- - - - -

------------------------------------------------------------------------
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myego33
(03/16/1999; 19:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3469)
test
Hello all - SteveH relax already Lot's of predictions - the powers that be seem to be in control for now. Time equalizes all. No need for evangilism to each his own
PH in LA
(03/16/1999; 20:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3470)
Fleckenstein on the Euro (and Greenspan)
FOA:

No one could be more dismayed than I at the performance to date of the Euro vis � vis the dollar. At the same time, I am the first to recognize that its three-months-long existence does not even qualify as an eyeblink, as currencies go. Nevertheless, I look forward to your thoughts.

Since you are polite enough to acknowledge the existence of skeptics, I include a few words by Bill Fleckenstein (who was bullish on the Euro prior to its introduction) from his commentary today: "Scandal explains euro... I think quiet must be a moral victory for Europe, given that all 20 of the commissioners of the European Union resigned over reports of waste and fraud. I guess now we know one of the reasons why the euro has been such a dog - some of the key guys behind the scenes may have been corrupt. What a debacle. This has got to be the most disastrous introduction of a new currency in the history of the planet. Maybe this big housecleaning will set the stage for an attempt to put together policies and management of a real currency. If not, the euro is going to be out of business before the year is over."

On another note, I'm glad I'm not the only one who scratches his head at the obtuse utterances of our Federal Reserve Chairman. The following comment was also on Bill Fleckenstein's page today: "Getting a grip... Greenspan made a speech today that was on the tape. He suggested that "the U.S. still faces upside and downside risks." Well, I guess the chairman has a firm grasp of the obvious."

Amen! (http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/)
Farfel
(03/16/1999; 20:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3471)
RUSSIA confronts BRITAIN on GOLD! Things are Heating Up!

Just received this FAX from a friend in Canada (see below)...

No wonder Britain has been eagerly encouraging sales of gold recently. It's probably a case of, "HIDE THE EVIDENCE!" Much of the gold floating around "out there" is probably stolen Russian gold.

Still, I wonder why Russia is so eager to get back its gold? Don't they know it is nothing more than a barbaric relic? Wouldn't British Pounds suffice? Or even US bucks?

I guess not.

--------------------------
London, March 16 (Itar-Tass) -- The Bank of England announced on Monday that it sees certain unsettled financial questions dating 80 years back as "a subject of discussion" between the governments of Great Britain and Russia. The subject in question concerns a historical fact: Emperor Nicholas II sent to Britain gold and foreign currency worth 400 billion dollars in today's prices to buy weapons. No complete settlement was made between London and Russia and the money disappeared without a trace.

According to a Bank of England press service official, the Bank provides the safekeeping of all resources at its disposal that are state assets and is not empowered to comment on the situation with the czarist gold. The press service official noted that "this case must become a subject
for discussion between the leadership of Russia and the United Kingdom, the more so since precedents exist: a Soviet-British agreement was signed in London in February '67 on the settlement of disputes, including in the financial sphere."

According to the data with which Itar-Tass was provided by the British archives, the communique dated 13 Feb.'67 and the intergovernmental agreement recognized as "completely settled" all the mutual financial and property claims that originated in the period after Jan.1, '39. Pursuant to those documents, Britain recognized that half a billion
pounds sterling belonging to Moscow had been "found" in Britain and agreed to deliver goods to make up for the amount.

But the British archives have no records of any talks between Moscow and London on the czarist money. "Britain has received no Russian claims to the gold of Nicholas II," the Bank of England official said. She advised Itar-Tass to approach the Treasury and the Foreign Office, but the press services of the two ministries responded with "No Comment."

The British governmental and financial circles are now considering the Sunday Times publication which suggests that Russia will possibly file a claim for the missing gold against London very shortly. Should Moscow secure the return of at least one-third of the amount sought, then it
will be able to immediately pay off almost 150 billion dollars of its foreign debt.

It is a recognized fact that the Russian emperor exported part of his wealth for safekeeeping in Britain shortly before the Oct. 1917 revolution. British sources will not discuss the amount of the gold taken out of Russia at that time.
Peter Asher
(03/16/1999; 21:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3472)
"Matchmaker, Matchmaker,make me a match"
How significant, today's quote regarding the IMF gold. "Even if it is approved, and that's not going to happen overnight, *the amount and timing would be such that it shouldn't significantly alter the overall supply in the market.*" How convenient for the massive short position out there, needing to buy the physical without getting caught out by a price run-up, This is a marriage made in "Rigged market heaven." The hedge funds buy the IMF gold and the POG remains stable. How fortunate that these two situation coincidentally occurred in the same time frame. If any heads of state or central banks were in fact involved in arranging any of this , why, they would actually be Heros.

Curses!!
"
Gandalf the White
(03/16/1999; 21:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3473)
Farfel wins the "Hobbit's Award" for the best POSTS of the day !
Those were great ! Keep up the GREAT work, Farfel.
<;-)
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 21:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3474)
myego33
Great name!

It is not just me saying this:

Date: Tue Mar 16 1999 22:53
JP (If the reverse head and shoulders pattern in gold was completed we will see ) ID#250206:
the XAU above 90 within a few weeks. This pattern has very bullish connotations. The base is large enough to
support a very high gold price. Am I dreamimg ? No, my technical studies indicate an explosive move up once the
base is complete. Now, if today was the final high in the Dow, gold price will rise for sure as big money seeks
safety. We will find out over the next week or so. Only time will tell.

-end-

Kaplan:KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question: What do you think about today's action in the XAU versus the gold price? Answer:
Before every major rally in gold, the price of gold made a final intermediate bottom while the XAU outperformed the
yellow metal during its last dip. On Tuesday at 10:09 a.m. gold hit $281.25, 55 cents lower than its January 27 nadir of
$281.80, while the XAU hit an intraday level of 59.57, slightly below its March 1 intermediate-term bottom of 59.76,
before ending the day with a net gain. This is exactly the kind of technical behavior seen in 1992-1993, the last time
that gold shares more than doubled. In other words, today's activity was very bullish technically.

From RJ at http://members.home.net/rjgold/031699c.htm

KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question: What do you think about today's action in the XAU versus the gold price? Answer:
Before every major rally in gold, the price of gold made a final intermediate bottom while the XAU outperformed the
yellow metal during its last dip. On Tuesday at 10:09 a.m. gold hit $281.25, 55 cents lower than its January 27 nadir of
$281.80, while the XAU hit an intraday level of 59.57, slightly below its March 1 intermediate-term bottom of 59.76,
before ending the day with a net gain. This is exactly the kind of technical behavior seen in 1992-1993, the last time
that gold shares more than doubled. In other words, today's activity was very bullish technically.
beesting
(03/16/1999; 21:34:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3475)
Special message For Hobbits only !
The 10,000 Yuan Coin:
The side of the coin showing in my book has what looks like a coin(round)with a panda sitting on a branch of a tree.Above the Panda's left ear is the number 10000 and the chinese symbol for Yuan.This inner coin is circled by 10 other coins all showing different bear poses,all on one giant coin. From the book:
4,851.6000 g,.999GOLD,156.0000 oz AGW
10th Anniversary of Gold Panda issue
Obv: Temple of Heaven.
y# date mintage

358 1991 10pcs. --- Proof 180,000.

What's this coin worth if Gold goes to $1500 oz. and beyond?...........beesting
SteveH
(03/16/1999; 21:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3476)
Correction:
This from RJ:

Both silver and gold got way oversold in the last two days, and an up day is imminent.
Collapsing lease rates definitely cast a pall over silver, 'tis true, but these can and do change on
a dime. I still think a strong move up is the best bet. Silver will not break lower. There is a pretty
good inverse head and shoulders thingy developing in silver. The objective in a H & S formation
is the neckline, which is right at about 5.80 this go around. I think that is a good target to shoot
for. Let look at the chart, shall we?
beesting
(03/16/1999; 21:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3477)
NOSEDIVE
I haven't seen this posted yet.The Russian stockmarket crashed 39.06% TODAY!!!Thats gotta be one of the biggest one day drops in any market in history.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Check it out...........beesting
JA
(03/16/1999; 22:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3478)
Alaska Placer Miner
In answer to your question will the government try to drive you out of business as a small gold miner. Of course they will. They have been trying to drive you out of business for the last 10 to 15 years. The whole radical environmental agenda has very little to do with protecting the environment but must to do with taking property from the citizenry. This is true in logging, mining and farming. One must remember we are the largest debtor nation, our fiat currency has no real value, so the only thing of real value is the land what it holds and what it produces. Over the years I have worked some small gold mining claims and still have several. However, when the mining laws were changed several years ago, literally thousands of small claims in the western United States were forfeited back to the government. Small mining operations are almost non existent in my state. I tried to get an assay done several months back from a local assayer that I had done business with in the past. The telephone number had changed and after several calls I found he had closed up shop and moved all his equipment to his house and has not yet hooked it back up. He said since the government changed the fee structure to maintain mining claims the industry has basically become non-existent. He had something like two requests for assays for all of the previous year. Whereas some years prior he was doing hundreds of assays a week. The founding fathers never intended for the Federal Government to own land, in a free society it is critical that the land belong to the people. The powers that be are confiscating the land because that is as close as they can come to holding collateral for their fiat currency. The know their fiat currency holds little real value.

Now the fact that they are trying to take property from the citizens does not mean they will succeed. I believe that those that are successful in holding on to their property will one day be greatly rewarded. So hang in there I believe your day will come. I believe we are close to one of those points in history when radical shifts are about to occur.
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 00:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3479)
Hear ye! Hear ye!
The World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley's WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY (March 8 - March 12, 1999) has now been posted at USAGOLD.

Follow the link to "THIS WEEK IN GOLD" via the USAGOLD HomePage.

The concluding comments regarding Russia are not to be missed.
Voyager
(03/17/1999; 01:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3480)
(No Subject)
Catching up on the roundtable. Wife in bed and kids asleeep. Enjoying a new cigar I found in a small store in the mountains called a Zino. Very smooth. Anyone else tried one?

Michael � Appreciate the direct and concise answer on the 33's. Glad I "got em".

Farfel � Enjoyed your analysis today. Shows how much truth can be said in satire. Concur on the Poster of the Day.

Regarding the possible sale of IMF gold to "reduce under developed countries debt". I believe that the IMF wants these countries to be in such chaos so their economies can be controlled. Much the same way Herr Klinton has divided and fractionalized the American people and to build his base of support on single issue groups and groups in his "debt."

You can bet that if these debts are eliminated, the IMF will be first in line to loan them the money over again. The money will naturally be stolen by the elite few, and none will reach the intended. How long will the taxpayers fall for this IMF theft? A long time.

Remember Newt's statement before the budget cave in last fall " I will be damned if that French communist will get another dollar." Congress then turns over 18 billion dollars right out of yours and my pockets to save the Brazilian economy. The Brazilians were so grateful they allowed their currency to float. How can I get an IMF loan?

Usul
(03/17/1999; 01:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3481)
EU Commissioners Resigned
In my view, this is the best outcome. If the report of the panel of independent experts accusing them of "losing control of the huge Brussels bureaucracy and turning a blind eye to widespread fraud and cronyism" had been followed by inaction and resistance on the part of those commissioners who were singled out, then the loss of confidence and trust that would entail would be bad for the euro. With this complete "spring cleaning" the markets can now look forward to a fresh start with the alleged rotten core completely replaced. As long as this proceeds well, the euro should do as well as is justified by the economic fundamentals (which may be a different story). One must also hope that any rottenness in the lower echelons can be dealt with expeditiously.
Incidentally, I sat next to one of those EU commissioners having a hair cut once, in a part of London, in 1997; how ironic that the whole lot has now gone for a "hair cut"...
Clint H
(03/17/1999; 02:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3482)
US$ vs Euro for oil

Did someone actually say that the Oil Cartel is going to start the heavy switch from the Dollar to the Euro on July 1? It seemed to me that FOA and Another were pretty calm about what is about to happen to the all-powerful dollar. Would this not truly establish the Euro? Can they afford a collapse of the Euro and a continuation of the US$?

Can a Noble Knight enlighten us Squires?
SteveH
(03/17/1999; 04:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3483)
Arpil gold now $284.30...
eom
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 05:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3484)
An aside to Farfel; an answer for Quixote
Farfel (3/16/99; Msg ID:3471) "Emperor Nicholas II sent to Britain gold ...disappeared without a trace."
It is singularly the ability of gold to contract time and space, for even I do sit here with a token element of this one-time wealth of Nicholas II...thought you might like to know at least this small portion found refuge in good hands!

Quixote (3/16/99; Msg ID:3465) "A question...gold is the ultimate currency...based on the premise that people are rational enough to recognize this unique value of gold. ... people are idiots ... What if they remain content, even patriotic, about fiat currencies?"

You must surely have a keen eye for windmills, as it seems you have only just now arrived from La Mancha. Welcome to this Round Table, Sir Don.
Your question is a fair one for consideration, recognizing that we do not live in this world alone. You, in particular, would know "all that glitters isn't gold", and you point out that perhaps the masses see much that glitters but they fail to make the distinction. "Where is the value in gold, if not found in the eye of the beholder?" you seem to be asking.

There is a full conversation to be had whether people choose to use fiat currency, or whether they have it forced upon them. I would suggest that the "forcing" need amount to little more than media propaganda--for which we certainly have no lack. When faced with an uncomfortable, unfamiliar, or uncertain situation, the typical response is to grasp onto anything offered close-at-hand having the semblance of security...just as the drowning man will clutch for the blade of a sword.

Consider this, also. It is said there is no need to lock the prison doors in Siberia. Once the Govt gets you there, their tough job is done. So it is with fiat currency. As the memory of freedom dims, the people grow content, perhaps even thankful(!) for the easy availability of this Govt institution.

Patriotic about fiat currencies? As "Our money is better than your money?" My impression is that the patriotism you suggest is something akin to the "Buy Bonds!" propaganda of the World War II era. I might say that much has since changed, and the price to be paid for bonds today is too high for nothing in return!

As we must operate among the larger population, with a view toward the future of gold we must ask your question "What is to be expected?" Take comfort in this, if nothing else; this same large population of "regrettable mentality" shares also the mentality of the herd. Where independent thought and action does not currently impel them to buy gold, neither are they in the position to sell it. These people do not affect the value of gold, and their perception of value is what they are shown it to be. The value of gold is set (and shown) for all the world by only those few of us who take an active interest in its exchange with that which functions as the popular medium-of-exchange (such as the U.S. dollar).

There is much current talk of price manipulation. When you consider the mechanics of trade, you will come to the conclusion that only for temporary, unstable periods may gold be 'priced' lower than the value at which the goldhearts perceive its value. In the free market, would-be sellers want the highest price, those who truly value gold won't sell but will continue to acquire at any price of paper, and those with no interest play no role in the market. The current phenomenon of institutional short-sellers overwhelming the market to cause a price depression has an unwinding that will wreak havoc to the up side...(unless they achieve the impossible by permanently "breaking the backs and spirits" of all those who would hold gold to a higher value). Factor in the "herd mentality" of a greed/panic driven population in the face of boldly rising gold prices, and I believe you will have the answer you seek. Good day to you, Sir Don of La Mancha!

got gold?
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 06:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3485)
To all who ponder IMF gold sales
There is more here than meets the eye!
If the need is to raise money for assistance of weak nations, you need only recall that modern money is easily created through the act of making a loan. If there is need for money, granting a loan is the natural solution.

Selling gold would only alter the form of IMF reserves from metal to paper. The member countries would still retain their proportional claim on these IMF held reserves. The gold sale would not raise any new money/value that they do not already hold, it would only reshuffle existing money...money that the current owner would prefer to exchange for IMF-held gold.
At the end of the day, would the IMF then GIVE the paper reserves to the weak nations? Or would they grant a loan? And if they granted a loan...why the need for the gold/reserve shuffle? As I mentioned at the start, this is the modern world of fractional lending and fiat currency, after all. The reason that is given for the sale justifies nothing...a ruse for a different purpose.

Yes, there is more here than meets the eye!
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 07:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3486)
IMF
Do not fear the boogie man of IMF gold sales. The proceeds of any such sales would never even be seen by the banks of the nations whose currencies have been wrecked by American hedge funds. No, that money would go almost directly to the big European and American banks that hold the debt of those weak nations. Once again the lesson will be "go ahead, make all the bad loans you wish, we will bail you out".

It is unfortunate, this proclivity for subsidizing bad business practices. It is also highly inflationary.
USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 08:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3487)
Today's Gold Market Update: IMF Gold Sales: The Mouse That Roared
For some reason I can't fetch today's report over to the Daily Market Report page so I'm hoping most will come over to read it.

Gold is up $1.70 at $284.80.

MARKET UPDATE (3/17/99) Having had a day to digest the Clinton announcement that he favored International Monetary Fund gold sales, the gold market reacted this morning to this news as no news and continued on its merry way with little notice. Despite heavy financial press ministrations attempting to drive the price lower, gold reacted pretty much the way it did during the mid-1970s when heavy gold sales by the United States and the IMF (nearly 1200 tons) did little but help fuel gold's frantic rally from the $100 level to well over $800 per ounce. The number bandied about this time are substantially smaller -- about 150 tons worth less than $1.5 billion, a small drop in a very large bucket of third world debt.
Two questions come quickly to mind: First, will the world's finance ministries allow a sale of their gold to bail out Wall Street's largest banks? Second, wouldn't it be wiser to get out of gold's way let it double or triple and then sell it to finance third economic immersion?
Gold's no-account behavior must distress people like Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton and their cronies in the leftist British government (which also favors IMF gold sales and has been beating that drum for longer than I can remember.) But the fact of the matter is that we still must have a vote on the issue. In fact we must have a number of votes on the issue, and the wily markets have now digested that small piece of political reality. It rosters like this: Congress must approve how the U.S. votes its 18% of the IMF votes. Similarly, the German government voiced opposition to the sales and said the German central banks would have to approve. The Bundesbank has repeatedly voiced disapproval of such sales labeling them a "scheme" at one point. The Japanese said that such sales need be approached "cautiously." Then you have the IMF vote itself which is not likely to occur for another year at the next big IMF conclave. So when you strip all the press rhetoric away from it, this latest round of anti-gold publicity has all the ferocity of the mouse that roared.
I will leave you with this quote from Grant's Interest Rate Observer which fits nicely with today's upside action despite the latest attacks on the yellow metal:
"Thus counting the euro, which has stumbled out of the gate (much to the satisfaction of the Continent's social democratic politicians, who regard a soft exchange rate as the next best thing to lower interest rates), two out of three major currencies are in downtrends. Some of the minor currencies are in flames. Yet the monetary asset that competes directly with the currencies is quoted near its 19-year low in U.S. dollar terms. We return to gold because the bullion bear market is even more self-satisfied, cocksure and overreaching than it was when we wrote about it last fall. It is a unique bear market."
We gold advocates are a hard headed lot and Grant describes us well. One final thought, then the day moves on: We have already had a dose of the Asian contagion in this country. It was called the 1970s. It is no coincidence to me that this talk of IMF gold sales would come now with the money supply soaring and the oil producing countries coming together to reduce oil output. That was what induced the IMF/U.S. gold sales in the 1970s. Could these events be unwittingly signaling a breakout? Don't forget bull market must scale a wall of worry in order to be born.
That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if anything of interest develops.
The March issue of News & Views is now being prepared for mailing. The words intrigue, cabal, conspiracy, espionage appear in this month's issue. Why all John Le Carre-style mystery surrounding the yellow metal?

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.
Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the newsletter.
PH in LA
(03/17/1999; 08:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3488)
IMF Gold Sale Threats
Aragorn III:

What, in your opinion, would be the "ruse for a different purpose" in all these smoke and mirror threats to "sell" the IMF's gold. After all, and as you say, if debt relief for poorer nations were really a priority, it would be easier to just "donate" some fiat currency created out of nothing for that express purpose.

Could it not more likely be an initial step in disbanding the IMF system while there is still time? for some obscure (at least to me) reason? For that would seem the likely outcome of such a move.

Unless such pronouncements are intended only as smoke and mirrors designed for spooking the herd. In which case such "gold sales" for that dubious "purpose" will never actually take place, will they?
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 13:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3489)
sadus, backlash, Phantom
Thanks, guys. I look forward to learning more about the predictions of these two sages. (Sorry I did not respond to your posts sooner. For some reason I had trouble getting into the castle last night).
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 13:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3490)
A Prediction
I am absolutely worthless at day to day predictions, but I'll make this one, anyway. Finally, tomorrow(I think), the CPI will be behind us. Then, good numbers or bad, the coast will be clear for the next recovery in gold. One of these days, very soon, I believe we will get the real thing. Meantime let's just call this market "Basel".

By the way, if you want to add a nice diversification to your portfolio...how 'bout Japanese stocks. As Japan reliquifies, their market should recover just like gold. You can quote me, if you like.

TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 13:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3491)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold, Silver Steady After Mon.-tues. Fall

New York-March 17-FWN--Gold and silver futures managed
to stop their recent tumbles, consolidating today and
ending the session little changed.
April gold futures dropped sharply on Monday after
French President Jacques Chirac suggested International
Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sales may be necessary to provide
debt relief to poor countries. Then gold tumbled some more
on Tuesday after President Clinton also made similar
comments that IMF gold sales may be needed for debt
forgiveness.
May silver, meanwhile, fell the last couple of days on
lower lease rates and in the aftermath of a weekend
Berkshire Hathaway report offering no clues on the company's
129.7 million-ounce stake in the silver market that was
announced in February of 1998.
But today, both metals finished with little change.
April gold added 20 cents to $284.10, and May silver dipped
a mere 0.3 cent to $5.04.
Glenn Toth, director of operations for Commodity
Resource Corp., said both metals appeared to be
consolidating in ranges.
A gold floor trader said the gold market was choppy,
with some players moving from the April to the June
contract.
The market ticked higher to $285.70 this morning, with
a couple of traders at the time commenting that it was
getting a slight bounce from a possible oversold condition
after a steep fall on Monday and Tuesday.
From the highs, however, some trade selling emerged,
another floor contact said.
"But there is really not a whole lot going on," this
floor contact noted. "We're basically stuck in a range here.
It's been very quiet."
After the Clinton and Chirac comments, Toth said he
suspects there likely will be sales of IMF gold.
"But that will be a long-term thing," he said. "With
the committees they're dealing with, it will take a long,
long time."
In the meantime, he characterized the gold and silver
markets as "demoralized."
"The gold and silver had some momentum going for them
(recently), and now that's been pretty much punctured."
Toth put support for May silver at Tuesday's $4.9550
low and support for April gold at Tuesday's $282 low. Both
markets fell so far, so quickly, that they may have to
establish a trading range before meaningful upside
resistance can be pegged, he continued.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
turbohawg
(03/17/1999; 14:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3492)
USAGOLD
Michael, your post yesterday brought a couple of things to mind.

Regarding the fact that in the '30's many lost their saving in bank failures ... My 82 y.o. great aunt, who I mentioned awhile back as one who lived thru the Depression and is old enough to recognize again the signs that led up to it, has a vivid memory of her father pacing the floor crying when he lost his life savings, $400, in the failure of a small bank in Arkansas. She's been warning her family that it could happen again, but they don't seem to be taking it too seriously.

Regarding Robert Prechter's ultra-bearish gold forecast ... As you know, Elliott Wavers always have alternate counts. One of Prechter's, and I believe it's his top alternate but I'm not currently where I can reference "At the Crest ..." , has gold at or near a bottom. Additionally, he's said that once gold makes it's bottom, it will be the buy of a lifetime and will never see that price again. If I were contemplating investing in gold for the first time, I don't think I would wait to see if Prechter's top count is the right one.
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3493)
Assorted Bridge Gold News
Berne--Mar 17--The Swiss Upper House today approved a modified bill that
would free 1,300 tonnes of excess gold reserves for sale, but, because of the
modification, the bill has to return to the Lower House for reconsideration.
This means a parliamentary consensus between the two houses has to be found
before the bill is put to the people in a referendum. Bridge News, Story .13270

Tokyo--Mar 17--Although bearish sentiment continued to dominate the market,
spot gold stabilized on light bargain-hunting and physical demand after a sharp
fall overnight, dealers said. Spot platinum was also sustained by bargain
hunting on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, they said. Story .2200

Canberra--Mar 17--Robert Guy, director of UK merchant bank NM Rothschild &
Sons Ltd., today called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to suspend gold
sales by individual central banks of member countries during a possible
gold auction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By Rieko Suda,
Bridge News, Story .26458

Washington--Mar 16--Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reaffirmed
today that the US economy, though very strong, appears "stretched in a
number of dimensions," which implies "considerable upside and downside
risks" to the US economic outlook. Greenspan, who was addressing the
Independent Bankers Association of America, attributed the
"accomplishments" of the domestic economy to influences that "may prove
transitory," but they are also tied to "a number of fundamental strengths"
indicating "more lasting benefits." By Edward Kean and Anne Maitrepierre,
Bridge News, Story .20005

Washington--Mar 16--President Bill Clinton today reiterated the long-
held US policy of supporting International Monetary Fund gold sales to help
ease poor nations' debt burdens. Clinton made the remark about gold during
a speech at the State Department concerning Africa. By Richard Cowan,
Bridge News, Story .19121

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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beesting
(03/17/1999; 14:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3494)
Does anyone beside me think there is a news blackout in progress?
Goldpark China(GKT.TO) a small Chinese mining company 36,057,500 shares had some coverage on a Yahoo news release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/zk.html
This company trades between .025 cents and .15 cents a share.My question is,why only negitive news concerning Gold and Gold Mining? I know we covered this before on this forum,but it's beginning to be to obvious.I haven't seen promotion of Gold anywhere except the Gold forums.After all this time some Country's haven't figured out yet that adding to Gold reserves strengthens currency's, selling Gold reserves weakens currency's.Look at past charts that show this.I guess I'm naive.Buy and hold Gold at bargain prices,is the word of the day..............beesting
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3495)
The World of TresSec Rubin
HEADLINE: Rubin warns Congress against debt limit curbs --March 17 (Reuters)

TresSec Robert Rubin say the option must be left available to create gobs of new money to counter recession. You must read this one!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/2j.html

HEADLINE: Rubin-global woes pose risk to U.S. economy--March 17 (Reuters)

Seeking stability...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/ps.html

HEADLINE: Rubin not attending APEC Malaysia meeting-Treasury--March 17 (Reuters)

Rumors of Rubin's retirement...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990317/u3.html
beesting
(03/17/1999; 14:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3496)
Lets start a positive rumer.
NEWS FLASH: The eccentric billionaire Scrooge McDuck announced today March 17,1999 that he is buying huge amounts of Gold at bargain basement prices to add to his overall long term wealth.When asked why he was doing this his reply was:How did I get so wealthy in the first place,answer,buy when everyone else is selling,and sell when everyone else is buying,and don't tell anyone else what I'm doing.Mr.McDuck has moved his operation offshore.The Hobbits helped me compose this.............beesting
TownCrier
(03/17/1999; 14:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3497)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Apr gold steady amid Rubin comments
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 17--COMEX Apr gold futures settled up 20c at $284.10 per
ounce, steadying after Tuesday's slump to 6 1/2 month low. Gold stayed inside
Tuesday's range and showed little reaction to comments today by Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin. Rubin reiterated comments US president Bill Cliton's
made Tuesday, suggesting that the International Monetary Fund should sell gold
to help poor nations.
* * *
Rubin said that the IMF is expected to sell 5-10 million ounces of gold, or
about 5% of its gold holdings (story .20796) and noted that swapping some gold
for interest bearing notes would not hurt the IMF's credit status (story
.19799).
Gold sales to help fund debt relief for poor nations would be conducted to
minimize market impact and would require US congressional approval, Rubin said
(story .18961).
Whether congress agrees remains to be seen, although it does throw some
doubt into the whole IMF gold sales issue, said one trader. While a potential
congressional roadblock could be supportive for gold "it doesn't seem to be
reacting to upside news right now," said another trader. He noted that Rubin's
comments on the whole were probably quite bearish, but noted that the negativity
had already been priced into the market during Apr's "rather overdone" $3.70
slide Tuesday.
While today's gold price volatility was low, market players noted that there
was some reasonably heavy volume from dealers establishing new positions after
Tuesday's frenzied activity. "The market was dominated by good liquidity from
bank-type dealers but there was little outside customer action," said one
trader.
Some traders noted that after its big selloff Tuesday, gold may creep
higher, especially given that Apr crude futures settled up 59c at $15.05 per
barrel after hitting a 4 1/2 month high of $15.15.
"The energy market is perking up, the CRB is up--this could affect the [US
producer price index] next month and if gold spikes down this month it could be
a buy next month," said one trader.

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
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Aristotle
(03/17/1999; 14:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3498)
Improvement of a good idea
beesting, dump "eccentric" from your newsflash (replace with "respected") and your idea is huge winner. ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 14:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3499)
Question:
The German government says it is in favor of selling IMF gold but will accede in this regard to the wishes of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank. Bundesbank officials are against selling IMF gold.

Now that Robert Rubin Bill Clinton have revealed their support for selling IMF gold (in concert with the leftists of both Continental Europe and Britain), what says the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve?
The Stranger
(03/17/1999; 15:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3500)
Smoot Hawley, Here We Come
Well, now they've done it. This afternoon, our venerable Congress voted import restrictions on steel. To those who struggle with the subject of economics, please place your eyeballs up very close to your screen: IT'S LIKE THEY JUST ANNOUNCED, "HEY, LET'S ALL PAY MORE FOR STEEL!"

MULTO INFLOTS-EE-OWE-NAY!

After hours gold trading indicates large buy orders being placed by Huey, Dewey and Louie!
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 15:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3501)
beesting started it !!
RUMOR
Today 3/17/99 the famous retired babyboomer rock stars, Huey, Dewey and Louie, grandnephews of the "respected" sage Scrouge McDuck
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 15:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 3502)
after I was interrupted !
Huey, Dewey and Louie announced that they have doubled their percentage of mining stocks and sold off the likes of ebAY, Amozon, and the CiscoKid. Lifted with approval from the "HOBBITVILLE Rag".
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/17/1999; 15:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3503)
Public Information from the Fed Reserve Board
Remarks by Governor Edward W. Kelley, Jr.
Y2K and public confidence in the banking system
Before the Media Studies Center, New York, New York
March 10, 1999

"...I have reached the conclusion that, now that the country is at last aggressively addressing the problem, the most important single element in our successfully navigating through the challenges presented by the "millennium bug" is how the public responds to it. There are very few places in our national life where the statement that "attitude can affect outcomes" is so compellingly demonstrated as in the banking sector, particularly as we work to address Y2K."

"You will no doubt agree that the best way to engender a strong and positive public attitude is through open and candid discussion, which I would like to encourage by briefly addressing three key questions. First, what are the critical components of public confidence in the banking system, and how are the industry, its regulators, and the central bank working to earn public trust in the Y2K context? Second, what are we confident about and what are we concerned about? When the media assesses the financial risk element of the Y2K story, these may be appropriate places to start. And finally, what do we hope the media will do in the coming months? "

"...let me spend a moment on my thoughts about what the media might consider as this story is reported over the next 10 months... There is much work to be done in local communities and we hope the media will be a powerful voice in urging the public to seek legitimate information, maintain perspective, and act with common sense. Suggest calm attentiveness to preparations. Provide "how to" pointers and advice. Focus on contingency planning. Suggest and highlight sensible actions by small businesses. Encourage community leadership. Promote education about the problem. Hold opinion leaders and public services providers accountable for accurate, consistent flows of information. Accept that certain things are unknowable and do not agonize over that -- we deal with uncertainties every day without loss of confidence. If glitches occur or problems loom, report fully on them of course, but make sure to place the problem in an appropriate context. Balance and perspective are key.
Y2K gives reporters an extraordinary opportunity to do what they do best -- learn the facts, weigh the evidence, and inform the public. You have a nation of attentive readers and listeners who very much trust your expertise, and who will prepare for the rollover with your perspective in mind. Complete and reliable information is every bit as important to our country's success in preparing for Y2K as is all of the technical work that is being done."
-------------------------
This coaching comes as no surprise. Can you imagine a similar discussion (or many!) with the media many years ago to coach them how to report on monetary and gold stories? Can you see how it might evolve over time to what we have now with reporting of gold and public perception?
A sudden leveling of the playing field would price gold beyond your savings.
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 16:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3504)
Kaplan's prognostication
Gold Mining Outlook
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com.
by Steven Jon KaplanBack
Updated @ 5:00 p.m. EST, Wednesday, March 17, 1999

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Following a major bottom for gold, as may have been seen at 10:09 Tuesday morning, when gold shares stage a major rally, it often begins at 11:20 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday. Also, look for the stock market to crash early Monday morning as dreams of Dow ten thousand turn to dust. Stay tuned.
-----
SURE hope he is correct!
<;-)
AEL
(03/17/1999; 19:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3505)
attitude and outcome
Re Aragorn's #3503: Edward Kelley:
"There are very few places in our national life where the statement that 'attitude can affect outcomes' is so compellingly demonstrated as in the banking sector, particularly as we work to address Y2K."

Attitudes can indeed affect outcomes. Let's all maintain a proper Positive Mental Attitude. Or, as Gary North quipped (he DOES have a mordant way with words): Think and fix code!

But there is more to it than that. Kelley is of course (and entirely justifiably) scared about a massive loss of confidence in the banking system which is, after all, afloat shearly on account of confidence. So, naturally enough, he wants to frame things now in such a way as to suggest that those who are without confidence (or those who might lose confidence) are the CAUSE of the upcoming banking problems/collapse. In this connection I ran into a brilliant little tidbit on a Y2K board, for which I wish I could take credit. Keep these points in mind in the coming months, as Kelley is joined by a legion of other victim-blamers:

Y2k "panic" (enlightened self-interest and personal responsibility
for oneself and one's dependents) cannot cause "bank failure"
any more than passengers leaving a bus all at once can cause bus
failure. If a system is DESIGNED so that it can be felled by a rumor,
or by a free choice for non-participation that ever and always
exists, then you cannot blame the participants. One thing that
doesn't work about my bus analogy: a bus is usually a non-profit,
public utility. All banks, even the "Federal" reserve, are private,
profit-making ventures. Why should I be responsible for taking my
money out of the bank? Am I responsible for the failure of a
restaurant because I decide to eat at home? A store because I cease
to shop there? Vast fortunes, obscene profits, are made in banking,
which has been described, accurately, as "a license to print money."
Bankers control economies, sap wealth from poor to rich nations, use
their enormous power to interfere in public policy and "manage" the
democratic process. Don't tell me I need to "have faith" in THAT.
-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 04, 1999.
(http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Sl9)

YO!



USAGOLD
(03/17/1999; 19:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3506)
The Latest from Gary North, Just Received
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

In January and February, there was a run on gold
coins, especially tenth ounce American eagles. The U.S.
Mint began rationing gold coins to wholesalers. Then,
without warning, the panic buying ceased.

It ceased about the time that the Senate's Special
Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem released its
report (March 2). The report is dated February 24. A
preliminary draft was released to the press that week.
Then Senators Dodd and Bennett made the rounds on the TV
news forums on February 28. They presented the Party
Line:

1. Prepare for a hurricane, not a collapse
2. Foreign nations will have big problems
3. U.S. electrical power is safe
4. The health care industry will have problems
5. Small businesses will have problems

In short, Y2K is going to be a problem, but not a
catastrophe in the U.S.

The report is less optimistic than the statements of
Bennett and Dodd. It summarizes the testimony that has
been presented to the committee over the past ten months.
What we learn is that there are big problems that must be
solved, and there is not much independently verified
evidence that these problems have been solved.

As for the argument that foreign nations -- Japan,
China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Germany -- will
have big problems, this is hardly comforting. These are
our major trading partners. If they cease exporting goods
to us, the U.S. economy will take a major hit in 2000 and
beyond. The international division of labor is far more
extensive today than it was in 1930. Yet a reduction of
world trade in 1930 led to the Great Depression.

Because you are on top of Y2K, you already know this.
The public does not. Your friends and neighbors cannot
hear the message for the noise. The message they hear is
colored by the spin that a frightened government is putting
on it. They do not want to hear that the days of wine and
roses are about to end. They do not want to believe that
their futures are going to be hard, the way things were
hard in the 1930's -- or worse.

When the great fear comes in 2000, the euphoria that
is universal in the U.S. today will evaporate. A great
fear will paralyze people. We are not familiar with this
level of fear. We have read Franklin Roosevelt's
rhetorical line, "We have nothing to fear but . . . fear
itself." We forget that this was nonsense in 1933, that
there was a great deal to fear: loss of a job, 6,000
bankrupt banks, lost homes, lost dreams, and an economy
that would not recover. It was terrible. Year after year,
it would not recover. The Roaring Twenties had not
prepared people for this.

We have had over four decades of roaring. We have not
lived in fear. There have been recessions and setbacks,
but nothing like the despair of the 1930's.

How do we prepare ourselves psychologically for a
decade of depression? How can we imagine it? It is beyond
our experience.

That's what I have been trying to do personally: get
prepared mentally. I moved out of a lovely home on a
suburban street. I moved to the sticks. I have bought
grains. I have sunk wells. I have restructured my life
and my finances on the assumption that the banks will not
make the deadline, that the welfare State will end.

Meanwhile, those around us are convinced that the
stock market will make them rich. It is not easy to keep
my mind focused on what I know to be true: Y2K is systemic.


THE ONLY RELEVANT COUNTER-ARGUMENT

I have heard them all: "they" will fix Y2K, American
ingenuity never fails, the free market can be trusted, the
stock market has not discounted it, this or that company is
compliant, it will be fixed on failure.

There is only one counter-argument that impresses me,
and I have not seen many critics use it: the y2k glitch is
not substantial. The erroneous century computation is too
limited to affect the vast majority of functions in
computer systems. Thus, y2k will hit, but almost nothing
will go wrong. Systems will not fail.

To persuade me, this argument would have to come from
mainframe programmers and electrical engineers working with
embedded chips. The rest of us are not skilled enough to
know. The problem is, the programmers are divided on the
question of the degree of disruption we can expect. Most
of them live in cities. Most are still on the job. But a
few have left town. They are scared.

Programmer Cory Hamasaki goes out on weekends to a
friend's ranch and works in the fields. In return, he has
been promised a corner of a cabin if y2k hits so hard that
the Washington, D.C. area becomes unlivable. Here is a
self-professed middle-aged man who is spending weekends
doing hard labor because he thinks he needs a fall-back
position.

He is not sure that y2k will shut down society. He is
sure that it will shut down computers in the nation's
government. He is not sure how big y2k will be. But he is
sure that it cannot be fixed.

I submit this to you as the rational position: it will
not be fixed. You must make your plans on this assumption.
I have been saying this since late 1996. I have not
changed my mind.

If the century date problem is not a major problem for
accounting and time-sensitive operations, then we need
programmers -- a lot of them -- to come before Congress and
show why this is so. But no such programmer has testified
so far.

Now, how bad will it be? I look at Citicorp's y2k
budget of $800 million to $925 million, and I conclude:
somebody in high places thinks y2k will be a big, big
problem if not fixed. Senior managers do not spend this
kind of money on small problems.

Most businessmen are not spending anything like this.
That is why Y2K will be disruptive in so many places. But
will it shut down entire industries? I look at the
division of labor, tied to just-in-time production and
just-in-time distribution, and I conclude: yes.

Yet almost every economist says it will be a bump in
the road. They are masters of studying the division of
labor and the price system, and they think things will be
fine. But they are not Austrian School economists. They
think in terms of a world that is self-regulating, a
machine. They do not understand that entrepreneurs can
make simultaneous mistakes, they way they did in the
1920's, investing in projects that could not be sustained
in the 1930's.

I contend that Y2K is such an overlooked error, one
that is not really believed even when it is known to exist.
This is why we see a rising U.S. stock market and gold
below $290.

The free market is not a self-correcting machine. It
is a social institution. This social institution is
subject to the mythologies of the era. If men believe that
prosperity is forever, that the stock market will grow at
10% per annum, decade after decade, when economic growth is
2% to 3% per annum, then they will not act in terms of a
threat to that compounding.

Y2K is a threat to compound growth because it is a
threat to the information system. It is a knife aimed at
the heart of an information society. It will foul the
data. It will make data unreliable. It will make
mandatory the independent verification of all digital data.
That will be like the Luddite's shoe in the 18th century
machine.

Y2K is the ultimate Luddite. This is how we had
better view it. A Frenchman's shoe (sabat, as in saboteur)
would shut down a production line temporarily. That will
be Y2K's effect: a million shoes tossed into a million
machines, shutting down a million supply lines.

These supply lines are our life-support systems.
Cities cannot do without them. The economy's warehouses
today are 18-wheelers. Shut them down for a month, and the
economy of the cities will die.

This is unthinkable. That's why your neighbors refuse
to think about it. There is no way for 100 million
households to prepare for the shutting down of the
production lines. The supply lines are stretched out
today. They are full. That is why the system is so
efficient. There is no slack. It is not possible for 100
million U.S. families to increase their purchases of
anything by 50%. To attempt to shift from buying new cars
to buying beans and rice would bankrupt the auto industry
and create riots in Sam's Club and Costco stores.

This is the grim reality of every society: society
cannot change except slowly. An individual can change
radically only if he changes alone or nearly alone. If he
is accompanied by millions of others, social institutions
will break down.

If half the population decided to go to church next
Sunday, they could not do it. There would be no room.
Even in Boston in 1660 -- the Puritan era -- church
buildings could accommodate less than a third of the city's
population. If we had mass revival next Saturday, the
churches would have to go to round-the-clock worship on
Sunday. The streets would be jammed, the parking lots
full. Most people could not get in.

Individuals can change their resource allocations
radically overnight only if very few of them attempt this.
This is the great Catch-22 of Y2K. The worse Y2K is, the
more sure is the Catch-22. There will be chaos. This has
been my message since late 1996. Don't be in the middle of
it. It will be bad enough on the fringes.

People will not believe the threat of Y2K because they
inherently recognize the truth of social stasis. A society
cannot adjust smoothly to a shutdown of its supply lines.
This is why the press last week dutifully cited John
Koskinen and the Federal Reserve System's Edward Kelley,
Jr., when they said not to stock up on medicines, food, and
currency. To do so as a nation is impossible. The just-
in-time supply lines would not tolerate it. To attempt it
today would bring panic tomorrow and gridlock the day after
tomorrow. People would discover that there is no way that
all of them can stock up.


THE DILEMMA OF DEMOCRACY

The democratic mind set says that if bad things must
happen to most people, good things are illegitimate for a
minority. This is why we have graduated income taxes and
heavy inheritance taxes.

In wartime, societies adopt rationing. The free
market's principle of allocation -- high bid wins -- is not
acceptable when it's a survival issue. In a lifeboat, the
high bid does not win. Majority vote wins -- or two people
with guns.

If Y2K is a life-and-death issue, then high bids will
not be allowed to win. We will have rationing and martial
law. People will demand this. The government is getting
ready for this.

This is why Y2K threatens long-run supplies. The free
market is what encourages increases in output and efficient
production. Martial law does not, since it is a form of
socialism.

The day that most people know that their lives are at
risk, the free market will become the black market. Theft
will begin, whether government-run or private. Social
order will break down when the division of labor breaks
down.

We no longer live in a society marked by self-
government and patience. We are a nation of short-run
people. That is why our savings rate is so low. In some
communities, law and order will prevail, but these
communities will be small. The more impersonal the
community, the more at risk it will be.

That is why you must begin to create community. But
people will think you are nuts. That is why I moved to the
country. I live in a small community. Some of the
neighbors think I'm crazy. I have been written up in two
regional newspapers as a Y2K survivalist. A reporter from
Houston knocked at my door last Saturday trying to get a
"Y2K survivalist kook in the sticks" story. Neighbors had
directed her to me. (My wife sent her away.)

Communities will be created in urban areas, but at the
expense of larger neighborhoods. People will park cars in
streets to block entrance into them, the same way the
Yonkers experiment has done with street-blocking pillars.
Crime will go down immediately. Community bonds will be
formed. But traffic patterns will get disrupted. Of
course, if gasoline is being rationed, that's nothing
crucial.

Your problem will be that you own assets. Are you
going to be a target for your neighbors? You must work to
create the awareness that your assets are a benefit to them
apart from their violence. For example, if you have a
solar panel, buy a solar battery charger and spend $200
on rechargeable batteries. Hand them out in 2000, or offer
to charge your neighbors' existing batteries for free.
Your solar panel is now worth defending.

Re-charge car batteries that can be used to operate CB
units. Your community will need communication. Hand-held
walkie-talkies, such as the Motorola Talkabout, are
important. Buy several of them.

By the way, buy your panels now. The supply lines are
getting very tight, even for British Petroleum panels. I
think they will be unavailable by early July. One company
that sells simple solar systems is Solar Extreme
(http://www.solarextreme.com).


DON'T GO BY YOUR STOMACH

People are not worried about Y2K today. This can
change -- will change -- in late 1999. Then you will be
facing the supply lines problem. You must have bought AND
INSTALLED your equipment by then. Skilled labor is scarce
now; it will be unavailable then.

When people get scared, supply lines will dry up. The
fact that you have doubts today about the severity of Y2K
is what gives you a short head start. You must act against
your stomach if your brain says that there is no reasonable
way out.

The less you feel like spending money to defend
yourself against Y2K's effects, the more preparations you
should make. Use your brain to overcome your emotions. If
you feel calm, take steady, systematic action. You must
allocate time and money each week. Steady as you go.

You will have to start sprinting in September.

END
Peter Asher
(03/17/1999; 20:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3507)
Michael
I've thought of Gary North as the extreme alarmist of Y2K, but barring extensive public perception of a non-event, (whether valid or not) this current essay is flawless
sheople
(03/17/1999; 23:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3508)
Hello, we've finally arrived.
Somebody peed in the punchbowl on Wall Street, where does the flock have to queue up to buy gold? Shepherds Rubin and Clinton are leading us to the promised land.
Gandalf the White
(03/17/1999; 23:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3509)
RE: Last Post
MK there you are --- the Sheople have arrived !!! please take numbers and stay in que.
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 01:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3510)
AEL & USAGOLD
Somehow we managed to function very well independently to create a 1-2-3 punch toward some degree of monetary/Y2K awareness yesterday afternoon. A pleasure to watch the puzzle pieces applied by many hands to complete the picture for all to view.
The 3506 post by USAGOLD is theoretically and philosphically directly on the mark. It is required reading for all. Though skeptics may scoff, the precarious design of operations and infrastructure remains true with or without exacerbations of Y2K.

Beware holding the type of money, easily printed, that may be tossed about in bundles by Governments attempting the easy and popular *solution* to such a nationwide problem.

got gold?
Mooski
(03/18/1999; 02:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3511)
Uff da - I hope this works...:)
Evenin!

I've been lurking for a few months, broke down and got me a password so that I can join in the discussion. By no means do I feel 'justified' to sit at the table, but just to offer my opinion from the sides.

(Small background: Cobol programmer, dozen or so years of experience, been working Y2K for the past 2 years, have my body weight in rice, soup and tuna stocked up...;)

I firmly believe that we are in a dual exchange rate for gold. There's the spot price, (hovering btwn 283-290, sit, stay, roll over. Good boy.) and the price that you and me pay for actual, physical gold.

Note the growing difference btwn spot and let's say 1oz American Eagles. That difference will grow the closer we get to Y2K. (And grow quite healthy to boot...)

The 'Central Bankers' will do whatever they can to keep gold within a very thin trading range, since 99.44% of the 'sheeple' pay attention (however limited) to the spot price of gold, but they will be unable to control the 'actual retail price' of physical gold.

And as more 'sheeple' wake up to the true laws of supply vs demand, the 'real' price will increase, WHILE THE SPOT PRICE REMAINS A NEAR CONSTANT.

Just my $.02, I've been wrong before. (I've got North Carolina beating UCLA to go the championship game...:(
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 04:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3512)
OIL
Oil prices are now up 50% in less than two months, more when measured in euros.

We watch this IN-FLOTS-EE-OWE-NAY together, no?
SteveH
(03/18/1999; 04:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3513)
Add your name to and send this letter...
to your Congressperson:

http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/cgi-bin/buildpage.cgi?state=ny (or whatever state you are in)

feel free to edit the letter to suit your taste.

Dear Congressman Saxton,

I am a shareholder in a gold mining company and (Put State or Country here) taxpayer. Recent events give me reason to believe that the price of gold is being manipulated to keep it under $297, which is at or below the cost of production. It doesn't take much to figure that out. As a technical trader (using statistics to trade) I see that the POG defies all attempts at analysis. Any other commodity or stock would not show a continued and repeated ceiling as gold does, it is statistically not possible. Upon further review it would seem that EVERY time the price of gold attains the price above $295, news stories are leaked to various major news organzization that this hord or that hord of gold will be sold. Here are but a few of those stories that only come out when gold threatens to rise above $297:

-- IMF gold sales to relieve third world debt.
-- Swiss gold sales.

I am sure you are more aware than I that Goldman Sachs is in a position of an apparent conflict of interest as they are shareholders in the Federal Reserve, Secretary Rubin worked there, they allegedly hold some third world debt, and they are reported to be one of the major forces behind the gold "shorting" that recently knocked the price of gold from $295 to $281 in two short days, when it had taken 11 days to rise to that level. Could it be that they are staunch supporters of IMF gold sales too?

Background. Pundits estimate that there is a three-year gold short position on world-wide commodity exchanges. In other words, three years of production from all gold mines in the world are known or suspected to be shorted on these exchanges (annual gold production is around 2300 tons). That means that should gold rise to a price of $320 per ounce on these exchanges that the worlds largest "short squeeze" would force all of this gold to be covered, a physical impossibility and one that would cause the price of gold to rise sky high (your guess is as good as mine as to how high that would be, $1000/oz?). It also means that should only a small fraction of these futures players take physical delivery of their contracts, the exchanges' deposits of gold would go to zero and again gold would be forced to rise. I believe this is called naked shorting as the paper doesn't equal the gold available to cover the paper should that need to occur.

One has to ask, how can this been allowed to happen? Obviously, it explains why the manipulators would want to keep the lid on gold. The act of naked shorting and market manipulation is illegal; they wouldn't be in the fix they are in if this activity had been stopped years ago.

Next. Of late, several countries' Central Banks have been leasing gold to gold bullion banks who in turn have been selling gold into the gold market. This practice of "leasing" gold, although helping to defray the storage costs of gold and earning a small rate of return, hurts the price of gold because it represents a virtually unlimited supply of "undeliverable gold" (because the Central Banks aren't actually delivering the gold) with which gold traders can short the market. Long Term Capital (LTCM) is a recent example of where a hedge fund had shorted an alleged 400 tons (400 TONS!) of gold. As you know, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a bail out of this fund as they felt its failure would have precipitated negative repricussions in US markets.

I certainly hope the US isn't leasing gold into the market to hold the price of gold down. Are we?

Who does this activity hurt? It hurts shareholders of all gold companies. It hurts employees of these companies as it is forcing many gold mining companies to close their doors or layoff tens of thousands of workers. It hurts our country because a few large players win, while the rest of us lose. Now it has gotten out of hand.

Finally, an organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action) group has been formed by Mr. Bill Murphy (lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com). Their cause is to expose the manipulation, put a stop to it, return the gold market to a free-market, and prevent it from happening again. I support their cause and urge you to do the same. Please help put a stop to the blatant price-fixing and attempts of capping the price of gold, it is hurting me as a gold-stock investor and it is hurting our free-trade commodity system. A few benfit at the cost of many, it is wrong and you have a chance through your office to stop this abuse and expose the manipulators and to offer regulations that would prevent naked shorting of gold that put us into this mess in the first place.




Sincerly,


your name

-end-

April gold at $284.50.
YGM
(03/18/1999; 05:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3514)
@ Steve H-- Way To Go. I only wish I could put it as well.
Jim Saxton will hopefully give GATA the leg up we've
worked so hard to achieve. Now The Media!!!!
High Regards for your E-Mail: YGM.
YGM
(03/18/1999; 05:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3515)
Congressman Ron Paul--
he's the one who asked Greenspan pointedly @Humphry/
Hawkins testimony if CB's were still buying & selling Gold.
He apparently owns some Gold related business. His
answer from Greenspan is still trying to be deciphered!
He might be another candidate for your E-Mail.

http://www.house.gov/paul/mail/welcome.htm

*** Finally now "maybe" Pandoras Box gets opened.--YGM.
SteveH
(03/18/1999; 05:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3516)
April gold now (still)...
$284.50.

Here is Congressperson Saxton's email address:

Jim.Saxton@mail.house.gov

Plus don't forget to send a copy of the letter to your own Representative and Senator.
T. Remital
(03/18/1999; 07:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3517)
WORTH READING
Date: Thu Mar 18 1999 09:09
tone (u.s. problem) ID#314132:
Copyright � 1999 tone/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved




The United Weimar Republics
The next financial crisis is knocking at the door. Stock and bond markets, currencies, interest rates and hedge positions have resumed their violent churning. Governments have lost control of their currencies which are sloshing around the globe like tsunamis and Greenspan is smilingly running behind the events.

World money supply and credit expansion have skyrocketed. Even in the more conservative G7 countries M3 money supply is increasing at an average of over 10%! Since Clinton's inauguration the currency in circulation in the USA has grown with 80%. Financial discipline has gone out of the window. Money corrupted the politicians and the politicians corrupted money. By flooding the economy with liquidity and cheap credit, tax collection is booming, budget deficits reduced and still enough left for the starving politicians to squander. What a financial paradise!

But just consider for a moment, that the US national debt in 1998 was US$364 billion and was serviced at exceptional low interest rates and think about it that roughly for each full point increase in interest rates the servicing of the national debt will be increased with U$ 60 billion, nearly wiping out the present budget surplus of U$ 70 billion. Greenspan might be more worried about the national debt servicing than about the well being of the economy when contemplating an interest increase! And what would happen if the 2/3rds of the 1998 tax revenues estimated to have been created purely by the financial asset bubble would fall away? No way we are going to see monetary deflation! Economic deflation and the financial bubble deflating, that yes! And might the economic and financial asset deflation decelerate faster, the government's printing presses and hyper-credit creation will keep outrunning them. The governments are only interested in balance sheet paper profits they can tax and don't care if profits are real or not. Human psychology has a lot to do with financial developments and tendencies. We are living in a violent, aggressive, restless and rapidly turning world where there is no time and place for deflation. Economists and analysts are looking too much at numbers and forget to take the vagrancy of human behavior into consideration.

Where are the good times that governments at the very beginning of the 20th century only presented 10% of GNP and not a present average of 45%! And that the financial sector in the same period went from less than 5% of GNP to now over 20% without even considering yet additional increase of its power!

The newly elected social government of Germany has recently added its voice to cheaper money to keep the economy going, to create jobs for their workers and keep their own jobs and party in power. Japan in the last few weeks has poured trillions of yen into the economy, which the economy refuses to absorb! Last week China stated that it will infuse all the needed liquidity to keep the economy growing ( to prevent social unrest ) . Russia has declared its intention to use the printing presses to pay its debts. Everybody is doing it! Everybody is overspending! However, besides being impotent to tell people what money is, the governments are also incapable to tell money where to go.

The USA is having a heyday: their growing money supply is not flowing into the everyday consumer economy but into the financial greed bubble and out of the country into the dollar-eager lap of the world, while the dollar bill for the ever increasing US imports is being withheld from presentation. The US 1998 trade deficit with the rest of the world stands at U$ 198 billion. On top of the commercial debts, over 35% of the US national debt is being held overseas.

Inflation is building up in the gathering financial asset thunderclouds and\ in the menacing frontal systems of foreign held IOUs, which can only hoped for to be paid back in the far future with zilch Mickey Mouse dollars. The government cupboards are full with zillions of national debt skeletons, today standing at officially U$ 5.65 trillion but with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid included nearer to U$ 10 trillion. The USA national debt is destined to skyrocket the moment interest rates will turn up again.

However, the present financial situation is far removed from the great depression of the thirties. That time the governments had still the discipline to take corrective measures and gold still reigned supreme in the background. Today corruption is ripe, leadership absent and gold and inflation have been declared dead by Kenneth Gooding of the Financial Times.

If we want to find a more appropriate parallel we should better look at the days of the Weimar Republic in the 1920-ties: Germany then was under the unbearable debt burden of war reparation obligations, with no chance to repay, no reserves, its productive capacity in shambles, its politicians quarreling and nobody wanting to invest. Hyper inflation resulted: In 1922 the average price level in Germany increased by 5000%, but taken between January 1922 and November 1923 the increase was several billion times. In my personal collection the highest denomination of that time is a bill of "5,000 million mark" - or in American numbers: 500 billion! When the money supply increased, it brought price increases and consequently the purchasing power of the workers and pensioners was reduced. So to forestall unrest the authorities turned again to the printing presses. Thus a vicious monetary spiral was entered. Not only did the central authority print money but so did each separate state, even municipalities did it. Later old bills were just stamped over with higher denominations as printing new bills became too expensive. Then the monetary system just collapsed and was followed a few years later by the Nazi dictatorship.

But there is a major difference between the old Weimar days and present day: The financial mess we are getting ourselves entangled into will not be a temporary one with all problems solved and forgotten soon. It is all part of the demise of the outdated structure the national power and financial politics of the 19th and 20th centuries. We are entering the 21st century and the birth of the Internet and globalization are heralding a new World Age with capital letters, the Age of an integrated global society, "The Humapan" ( free down load from ) .

Near all present day governments have accumulated astronomical debt burdens. Cheaper money means a lesser interest burden and inflation means paying debt off with depreciated money! More money in circulation means an inflated economy and more tax receipts. And what do we think corrupt politicians to stay in power will go for? Apres nous le deluge! Let's rename the United Nations "the United Weimar Republics"!

During their Weimar Republic, the Germans who had bonds lost all. The ones with industrial shares managed to save from thirty to fifty percent of their capital. And people who had gold under the mattress survived best till Hitler ordered its confiscation.

Maybe the people going for Wall Street are not so dumb after all. People going for bonds might become the suckers. And if you are going for gold be sure where you are going to keep it! Probably only a few countries will experience hyper-inflation. Several countries will end up somewhere between inflation and hyper inflation. But only few will escape inflation at all. The USA and the EU ( if it survives! ) will in all probability close their financial borders and establish strict internal financial controls. We even might come to see a "sperr-dollar" in the USA. Only once all debts will have been inflated away, or will have been forgiven - only then will the world be able to start anew.

But do you think that after a total collapse of trust in all what is paper money and paper credit at the end of the 20th century, that a free Humapan of the 21st century would go again for the same mistakes instead of axing government and banking power, getting rid of all the corrupt derivatives and rococo financial instruments which only serve to the advantage of the ones manipulating them and would a free world not go only for money with intrinsic value, like gold? Only a digitorial Compu-State, when given a chance, might try to force its citizens otherwise.

Hans Schicht
Lake Chapala, Mexico
March 18, 1999

Back to Editorials








------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 08:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3518)
Thanks, T. Remital
Thank you for recognizing and sharing a valuable commentary on the state of affairs. We are in a precarious position, indeed.

got hope?
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 09:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3519)
Today's Gold Market Report: What is it about gold that frigh Better put what is it about a rising gold price that frightens them so?tens them so?
MARKET UPDATE (3/18/99) The gold market is fairly quiet this morning thus far after
the IMF/Clinton/Rubin hulabaloo of the past two days -- much sound and fury signifying
nothing. What is incredible about all this is not so much this single event which has unfolded
before us for the past few days but the stubborn, consistent and unremitting pounding of
gold from the politicians in Washington, the traders on Wall Street and the financial press.
What is it about gold that frightens them so? Anyone who has even a cursory understanding
of the woeful international debt situation knows that even if the IMF sold all of its gold
tomorrow, it would do little to stem the enormous overhang of bad debt held by the
emerging nations of the world, or more importantly, improve their ability to turn the profit
necessary to redeem it. Better put, I suppose, is the question: "What is about a rising gold
price that frightens them so?"

Bridge News reports the following this morning:

"Canadian gold-mining giant Placer Dome Inc. said remarks from US president Bill Clinton
urging the International Monetary Fund to sell gold to fund poor nations should have little
negative impact on the gold market, as the IMF would only be selling a small amount of
gold. Nevertheless, Placer Dome maintains that the proposed sale of gold remains
detrimental to the gold market, as such comments may lead to increased speculative short
selling of gold."

All in all there wasn't much news this morning. We will update if anything interesting
occurs. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

That's it for today. We will update if anything interesting occurs. Have a good day, my
fellow goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 09:24:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3520)
Sorry.....
Headline should read:

What is it about gold that frightens them so? Better put, what is about a rising gold price that frightens them so?
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 10:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3521)
We aren't having fun yet!
Did someone say gold would make a move at 11:20 NY time? Well, "Be careful what you ask for, you may get it!"
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 10:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3522)
Aragorn III
You requested I think of gold in terms of weight, not price. Well, what would you choose between 1) A nice home in the country, or 2) sleeping under a bridge with a 60 pound pack of gold?
AEL
(03/18/1999; 10:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3523)
bank runs OK?

http://www.y2kculture.com/finance/19990317.bankruns.html

Who's Afraid of a Run on Banks?

By Declan McCullagh

March 17, 1999

Bank runs should be welcomed, not feared.

That's what the Ludwig von Mises Institute -- a bastion of Austrian
free-market economics -- says about bank runs in its April 1999 monthly
newsletter.

"They spur banks on to be more careful in the conduct of their business. We
need more, not fewer, of them," says Llewellyn Rockwell, president of the
institute, in an article titled "Y2K and the Banks."

"The [Y2K] bug has exposed a very real and deep infraction that has long
plagued the US banking system. Thanks to long-ago government interventions
that redefined a bank deposit as a loan, modern banks only hold a fraction of
the demand deposits in people's cash accounts. The rest is used as the basis
for extending and pyramiding loans," he writes.

Here's the inevitable kicker: "If too many depositors demand their cash at
once, which is their right, it would trigger a bank run, which in turn would
lead to the so-called contagion effect, and runs on other banks."

Keep in mind that Rockwell is a longtime critic of the
AEL
(03/18/1999; 10:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3524)
bank runs OK?

http://www.y2kculture.com/finance/19990317.bankruns.html

Who's Afraid of a Run on Banks?

By Declan McCullagh

March 17, 1999

Bank runs should be welcomed, not feared.

That's what the Ludwig von Mises Institute -- a bastion of Austrian
free-market economics -- says about bank runs in its April 1999 monthly
newsletter.

"They spur banks on to be more careful in the conduct of their business. We
need more, not fewer, of them," says Llewellyn Rockwell, president of the
institute, in an article titled "Y2K and the Banks."

"The [Y2K] bug has exposed a very real and deep infraction that has long
plagued the US banking system. Thanks to long-ago government interventions
that redefined a bank deposit as a loan, modern banks only hold a fraction of
the demand deposits in people's cash accounts. The rest is used as the basis
for extending and pyramiding loans," he writes.

Here's the inevitable kicker: "If too many depositors demand their cash at
once, which is their right, it would trigger a bank run, which in turn would
lead to the so-called contagion effect, and runs on other banks."

Keep in mind that Rockwell is a longtime critic of the current banking
system, in which the Federal Reserve encourages banks to lend out much, much
more money than they actually have in their vaults. (Banks no longer act like
storage lockers, where everyone can take out what they put in.) If everyone
wants their money at once, only those lucky enough to be first in line can
get it.

Unless, of course, the Federal Reserve steps in, which it has said it would
do. It seems ready to print up as much physical currency as necessary, which
would salve the worst fears of jittery customers.

Rockwell predicts that would cause problems: "The Fed would have to run the
printing press full time or they would go belly-up immediately. The result
would be a dramatic deflation followed by hyperinflation."

We disagree. Seems to us that once the newly-minted money enters the banking
system again -- either from relieved depositors or through indirect spending
on purchases -- the banks will repay their loans to the Fed and we'll be back
to normal.

That point aside, he's right to say that even with Fed intervention, Y2K
could get messy: "Despite the appearance of stability and soundness, then,
the foundations of modern banking are actually extremely precarious. It would
only take the right kind of crisis, or perceived crisis, to throw the entire
system into chaos."
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 10:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 3525)
News you can use
HEADLINE: Record Jan U.S. trade gap may fuel protectionism--March 18 (Reuters)

First steel, now what? Closing doors to cheapest access to real goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990318/rs.html

HEADLINE: Japan Stocks Close Sharply Lower--March 18 (AP)

Interesting advice from the vice finance minister for international affairs...
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990318/japan_mark_2.html

HEADLINE: U.S. IRS working hard to avoid Y2K hitches-Rubin--March 18 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990318/te.html
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 12:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3526)
SMOKIN'
I asked a question of a friend of mine about oil prices and how they might impact Japan's efforts at recovery. I know some do not think Japan's difficulties pose a problem for gold, but I had my doubts. I was so pleased with his answer, I asked if he would share his thoughts with my friends at the Round Table. Unfortunately, his English is not so good, so he declined, but he authorized me to relay his thoughts. I will call him "Smoky".

Smoky said that higher oil prices and higher bond rates will actually help the Japanese economy. He argues that the Japanese people are "savings-rich" and that such circumstances are precisely what's required to get them spending again. Deflation expectations have kept money waiting for lower prices on just about all durables, including gold. Inflation expectations will do just the opposite. With so much pent-up demand in the Land of the Rising Sun, the impact of rising prices should actually be quite salutary.

Thanks, Smoky. I hope I did you justice.
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 13:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3527)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Slightly Mixed; Gold Tests Recent Low

New York-March 18-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished slightly mixed here today, with gold inching
lower in a market that appeared to be feeling out the low
for the week to see if it could find some support around
there, contacts said.
Silver also dipped slightly but was described as
largely consolidating, while platinum and palladium managed
modest gains.
April gold started out the session quietly, but
eventually eased to $282.10, stopping a dime short of the
$282 low from Tuesday after an early-week sell-off triggered
when French President Jacques Chirac and U.S. President Bill
Clinton suggested some International Monetary Fund sales of
gold should be considered to provide debt relief to poor
countries. April gold today settled with a 50-cent loss to
$283.50.
"Gold has fallen and it can't get up," said Tim Evans,
senior commodity analyst with Pegasus Econometrics.
He pointed out that Friday's Commitment of Traders
(COT) data showed that the funds had nearly completely
covered their heavy short position during a recent rally,
which took April futures to a high of $295.50 on March 9,
the effective date of the most recent COT data, and
eventually to $296.50 one week ago today.
"That surprised me because I would have thought
completely covering those positions would have driven the
market to perhaps $305 or $310, certainly higher than
$296.50," Evans said.
"The result of that is that $296.50 now looks like a
real ceiling for this market for the intermediate term. What
we've seen since that high is the fund selling coming right
back into the market and banging it back to these fresh
lows."
The market is technically bearish now that the April
futures have made new lows for the year this week.
Today, Evans said, the market was "checking out whether
the $282 low from Tuesday is good as even short-term support
for this market."
He offered the view this is likely "tentative" support,
putting additional levels at $278.50, then $274 to $276.
Resistance is anticipated at $285.70, previously failed
support of $286.50 to $287.40, a knot from $289 to $292.50,
then last week's $296.50 high.
"At this stage, we're much more confident of where the
resistance is...than where the support is," Evans said.
"We're not really oversold to the point where I'd be looking
at this thing as a bottom. Gold needs to prove itself."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 13:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3528)
Bridge Gold News
Moscow--Mar 18--The forex/gold reserves of the Central Bank of Russia Mar
12 were at US $11.4 billion, up $100 million from Mar 5, when they were at
$11.3 billion, the CBR announced today. Feb 26, the reserves were at $11.5
billion, up $100 million from the week before. Bridge News, Story .5453

Johannesburg--Mar 18--South Africa's Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.,
which supplies 28% of South Africa's platinum production and 21% of world
production, said today it has taken a 15% placement of shares in
Australia's Aquarius Platinum Ltd. Perth-based Aquarius will use the funds
to boost working capital for a major push to develop its 100% held in the
Marikana Platinum Project near Rustenburg in South Africa's North West
province, Aquarius said in a statement. By I-Net Bridge, Story .11647

Bucharest--Mar 18--The National Bank of Romania Governor Mugur Isarescu
said in a press interview today that nearly half of Romania's gold reserves
could be swapped for cash to sustain at least 6 weeks of imports following
the May-June peak payment of foreign debts. Bridge News, Story .11018

Tokyo--Mar 18--Japan's customs-cleared imports of non-monetary gold fell
56.0% on year in February to a preliminary 4.9 tonnes, the Ministry of
Finance announced today.

Washington--Mar 17--The International Monetary Fund should "swap" a certain
amount of its gold reserves for interest-bearing securities in order to
help fund multilateral debt relief for poor countries, US Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin said today. By Blair Pethel, Bridge News, Story
.19799

Washington--Mar 17--The International Monetary Fund is expected to sell 5-
10 million ounces of its gold holdings "over time," Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin said today. Rubin told reporters after testifying to a House
panel that it is possible the proceeds from such sales would be invested in
short-term Treasury bills. By John Lipold, Bridge News, Story .20796

The above are reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
(03/18/1999; 14:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3529)
Time to Fight!!! -- The Low Price of Gold!
The following E-Mail was sent to Anglogold:
http://www.anglogold.com/
As a shareholder I would like to know why Anglogold and other major Gold producers are selling contracts on future Gold production into a depressed Gold market?
Wouldn't this have the effect of depressing the current world price of Gold further,which in turn has the effect of lowering the share price of your company.I understand all companies require additional funding from time to time to keep current operations running smoothly,however as a shareholder I feel this practice has a detrimental effect on the world price of my favorite investment GOLD.

Your response would be greatly appriciated.

This message was rejected by Anglogolds E-Mail,URL listed above,if any of you gallant Knights or Hobbits would like to forward this be my guest............beesting
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 14:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3530)
News for a larger view
HEADLINE: Europe wary after Dow hits 10K:
Europeans distrust punch-drunk U.S. investors--March 18 (CBS MarketWatch)

Recommended reading. Good for perspective.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990318/news/current/london.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

HEADLINE: More Russian window dressing--March 18 (CBS MarketWatch)

Another good one for worldwide perspective.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/moscow.htx?source=blq/yhoo

Strong signs for the crude oil sector--CBS MarketWatch
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/futures.htx?source=blq/yhoo
Gandalf the White
(03/18/1999; 14:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3531)
Your RIGHT beesting --- Tis time to FIGHT !!
After todays second breaking the euphoric level of 10K on the DOW (BUT not closing there), together the high level trashing of gold, for no real reason, the spirits of the Hobbits were at an all time low. Even lower than the August '98 period when the extreme lows for gold were reached ! Then whom should appear but Aragorn III and tell the Hobbits, "ITS PARTY TIME !!" The Hobbits yelled in unison, "WHAT ?", so Aragorn III told them to gather around and he would tell them a story of why it was Party Time. -- Fear not you Knights of the TableRound, if Aragorn III does not get a opportunity to also tell you why it is Party Time, I shall replay the tape of the story for all to hear. BUT right now I must saddle-up Shadowfax and headout to the woods the speak with Treebeard about the forthcoming battle.
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 15:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3532)
Beesting, Gandalf and all....The Straight-Line Strategy
The best way to frustrate our adversaries is to continue doing what you have already done so well. Posting on sites like this one to help educate the general public about what is going on with gold -- this yellow metal that so comfortably finds itself at the center of this swirling storm. The greatest fear of the gold shorts is that substantial public demand for the physical metal will develop -- physical offtake which will thwart their ability to hold the price in check; physical gold that they will not be able to use to fill their huge short positions.

That is why they trot out these same stale old stories week after week, month after month, year after year -- stale old stories that contain only the smallest kernel of the truth. How many times in the past year have we heard about IMF gold sales? How many ounces have actually moved? How many times have we hear that the European central banks are going to dump their gold? How many ounces have actually moved? How many times have we heard about the Swiss central bank gold sales? How many ounces have actually moved? The financial press even had the audacity to run a story during the recent run-up that gold wouldn't stay high for long because the public was now dumping gold. Imagine that. While from other quarters we discovered that gold demand had run the U.S. mint dry of gold coins. As someone at the office said when they read the article: If you are going to lie at least make an attempt at making it believable. They do this to stymie the building gold demand. Who for a minute believes that Clinton and Rubin want to sell gold to assist third world countries? Not many.

The strategy to educate the public and create physical gold demand is also the straight line proposal: The shortest, quickest and most effective method of covering the distance between two points. And it's not just so that we thwart the schemes of the short sellers, it is also so that we help our fellows find protection against the thundering onslaught of the Four Horsemen we have talked about so often here:

Y2K

The Asian contagion

The introduction of the euro

The overvalued, mania driven stock market

Onward, my fellow knights!
beesting
(03/18/1999; 17:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3533)
Peter Asher msg.#3437 and Mooski#3511
Mooski,good post,I agree with your dual exchange rate for Gold.

Peter'sorry it took so long to respond to #3437.
I'm base-ing my judgement on an article written about 15 years ago about the Gold standard from inception to 1933 in the U.S.A.(searched,and searched can't find the article) From memory: The United States,while useing Gold and Silver as money experienced little or no inflation for over 100 years.But did experience some deflation in the years prior to 1933.Now,the question is does the total population of the U.S. enjoy more freedom and wealth now than they did in say 1899? Keeping in mind my measurement of wealth is in long term untaxed assets.I DON'T KNOW! I do know the American people no longer own their houses and land because of taxation.
Now,I didn't ask if we enjoy a higher standard of living,thats like compare-ing life as a teenager and life of a 90 year old.I can't think of anyway to research this but was there a higher percentage of(so called private) land ownership in 1899 or 1999 in the U.S.? As to the freedoms part of my question I'll just ask are there more laws around now or when you and I were boyscouts? IMHO each law thats passed takes away our freedom of choice.Please think about that,you don't have to agree.Anyway kind of got away from the Gold and Silver for money discussion.
One more point I'd like to add if we had a worldwide acceptance of Gold and Silver coins valued by weight instead of numeration it would be so much easier for millions of world travelers to understand pricing in foriegn lands.Also I don't think earned entitlements would be effected in any way,that depends on the issuer of the entitlement.
I'm buying more gold at these bargain prices..........beesting
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 18:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3534)
M.K.@USA GOLD
YOU ARE GOOD, MICHAEL!
DAMN IT, YOU ARE REALLY GOOD.
-----------------------------

One of my earliest investment lessons was in the summer of '82. I was 34 years old then. The DOW was around 800, below even its peak of 1966, (can you imagine?). That summer BUSINESSWEEK ran its now famous "Death of Equities" cover. I read the article carefully. I remember thinking in those days that the only way to make money in stocks was to trade. Bull markets were inherently temporary affairs. Stockbrokers were pushing limited partnerships and annuities (no kidding).

I had just bought the biggest house I could afford. After all, if you wanted to make real money in those days, you bought real assets. Well, I still live in that house. It appraised last year for a little more than double what I paid for it. In the meantime, the Dow has risen 12-fold. My stock portfolio has grown more than 100-fold. Gold, well, I won't rub it in.

Today, I manage millions for myself and for numerous others. I have learned a lot of lessons over the years, not least of which is the importance of humility. But I've also learned this: that to EVERYTHING in investing there is a season. Today's giddy stock market players would do well to remember that. So would today's disappointed precious metals investors. For reasons I have amply explained in these pages, as have many others, I believe we are at an important inflection point in world markets. Days like today don't change my thinking one bit.

GOLD IS DEAD. You hear it everywhere you turn. It's on the financial page. It's on the television. Perhaps a day like today drops you pretty low. Maybe it makes you wonder if buying gold wasn't the biggest mistake you ever made. Well, I've got news for you my friend. Your biggest mistake hasn't even happened yet. I've seen it so many times, I could give you examples long into the night. If you only remember one thing from what I have to say here, remember this: that your likely biggest mistake with gold, and mine too, for that matter, is going to happen when we sell it too soon.
bmacd
(03/18/1999; 18:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3535)
USAGold
I figure that the US government should by now be panic-striken and desperate to keep the price of gold down. With oil prices up 50% in a very short time span, assuming they stay even where they are now, it'll take what, three months for the PPI and CPI to reflect this, and then oops, there's the inflation that they've all been trying to laugh off for ages. No inflation, no need for gold. Hey, no rise in the POG, well then there can't be much fear of inflation then, so we can all relax. Hmmmm. I don't think so. Inflation will kill the goldilocks scenario for sure. In any case, there's too many nations broke due to the low oil prices, and I'm guessing that they're tired of being broke and playing a game.
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 18:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3536)
Stranger..."to EVERYTHING in investing there is a season..."
Thank you for your kind words, my friend.

Solomon, as I think you already know, was the first proponent of cycle theory and the first contrarian. He was a silver bug if memory serves. Ecclesiastes is where Solomonic wisdom resides (for those who might not know) -one of my favorite books in the Bible because it explains so much about the human condition and thus the markets. Funny how it still applies, don't you think, Stranger?

A time for every purpose under heaven............

You have handled yourself well, Stranger, both at this FORUM and in life. We are honored by your presence at this table round.
THX-1138
(03/18/1999; 18:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3537)
Thoughts and Rumors
A co-worker mine was talking with a coin dealer in Texas who said he was getting a large number of gold coin purchases with very large sums of cash. This coin dealer suspected that drug dealers were cashing in the new $20, $50, and $100 notes because they are traceable through that little thread woven in them. What better way to launder dollar bills than with none traceable gold coins, which are accepted anywhere in the world. I just thought this was an interesting theory that Drug Lords would be bleeding the U.S. Mint dry of gold coins.

I was also wondering if it is possible to purchase gold directly from the mining companies, even if it is unrefined. Does anyone know if that is legal/possible?
bmacd
(03/18/1999; 19:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3538)
As per usual
THis may have already been commented on, but I have to say it. With the run up in the POG last week, it was inevitable that the usual IMF sale rumors would hit the street again. More forceful this time, but then , hey, so was the price rise
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 19:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3539)
bmacd.....
It's been a long time, my lionhearted one. For those who don't know (and I do not mean to embarass you, my friend) bmacd holds an exalted position at this table having made the very first USAGOLD FORUM post. Thus...bmacd the lionhearted.

Ladies & Gentleman, I propose a toast. To bmacd!

Now. What of these money supply numbers? And I agree, when the price of oil begins to be factored into prices of goods and services, it will be difficult to hide the obvious.

This business of restricting oil production has blindsided the markets. No one seems to be paying attention, but we have not seen this level of co-operation among oil producers since the 1970s. And this time around, the motivating factor might cut even closer to the quick than in the 1970s because it seems to me we are not simply talking about improving the profit picture in the Gulf, we are talking about survival.

Do you think that FOA and Another are right? Do you think the producers will go for the euro?
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 19:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3540)
Let them eat cake!
"Aragorn III, You requested I think of gold in terms of weight, not price. Well, what would you choose between 1) A nice home in the country, or 2) sleeping under a bridge with a 60 pound pack of gold?"
(Do you have it raining, Peter? Otherwise I would be sleeping under the stars.)

I would offer you something else to consider--your own opportunity to choose...

Select the man with no cause to go hungry: he who has cake, or he who has only pictures of cake.

"If a picture is worth a thousand words, and this cake is worth 'so many' pictures on the open market, for what "picture-value" should I await before I eat?" But picture-value has no meaning in this context, as the appetite would be on a cake standard. So it would also be with a true gold standard, which was the topic at hand.

Uniform and unalterable, gold has only its weight to offer as a unit of account. It does not dance; it does not sing. It functions simply and elegantly as a standard of reckoning by greater or lesser amount. Such is money defined under a gold standard.

To answer you, of course I choose the house, Peter. At any time, in any language, any geography, sixty pounds should be enough...let the seller eat cake.

got milk?
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 19:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3541)
Peter and Aragorn III...
I hate to sound "Tory" about the whole thing but how about sleeping in the country home with 60#s of gold nearby?

Got canned food?

Aragorn says something to remember -- the first sentence for a great book:

"Uniform and unalterable, gold has only its weight to offer as a unit of account. It does not dance; it does not sing. It functions simply and elegantly as a standard of reckoning by greater or lesser amount. Such is money defined under a gold standard."
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 19:28:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3542)
THX-1138
You do not want to buy gold directly from a mining company because:

A. You don't know what you are getting when you put greenbacks on the table and the seller pushes that chunk of metal toward you.

B. You will not be able to sell that gold without an assay

If you knew the extent to which the industry went to get merchandisable gold in the form of coin into your safe or safety deposit box, you would be very impressed.

Stick with well-known internationally liquid gold coins like Eagles, Philharmonics, Maple Leafs, et al and leave the miner bars to the professionals.
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 19:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3543)
beesting
How did you know I was a boy scout. That really takes me back! I remember the merit badge book still had the making of crystal radio sets. Yes we have a higher standard of living; materialistically. Culturally though, its really gone down hill. Many more people do 'own' their own homes but pay for them over and over again in property taxes. ANY tax that is levied against something you have, rather than a transaction you make, is thievery by majority rule. That is, other than taxing real estate to pay for the creation and maintenance of the infrastructure to service it. I said many weeks ago that the essence of democracy in this era is "I vote to tax you." As to more laws? Aaagh! Don't like what somebody's doing, pass a law against it. Remember what Michael said about citizen government? Too bad he's not running as the libertarian candidate.

Now back to the point we got away from. I was objecting to your depicting a P.M. standard subject to a valuation controlled by the Spot market. A monetary system using coins (and even notes) denominated in metric weight would appear to be the panacea for the economic chaos of today. (Think of all the currency traders that would have to work for a living if that occurred.) I think that's what Aragorn was saying in his response to me about this, but as many of us know, Middle Earth people love riddles and his one liner was certainly that. It wasn't till now, while answering you, that I figured out what he meant.

I love this Forum. ----

Peter A.
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 19:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3544)
USAGOLD
M.K.- Sir, You are my mentor.
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 19:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3545)
Sorry to keep you waiting, PH in LA.
"Aragorn III: What, in your opinion, would be the "ruse for a different purpose" in all these smoke and mirror threats to "sell" the IMF's gold. After all, and as you say, if debt relief for poorer nations were really a priority, it would be easier to just "donate" some fiat currency created out of nothing for that express purpose.">

If only it were so easy! Fiat money cannot be "donated" into existence without destroying its value. The contract to repay the loan, paying back more than was lent, is what gives a dollar its only value to be found--that someone must work to reclaim enough dollars for payback. The prospect of freely given money destroys all pretext of the value it would command from others also expecting free money. But if the interest rate demanded is too high, it becomes impossible to service the debt, and the many defaults similarly undermine the dollar's value. Such is the razor's edge to be walked by a fiat currency.

<"Could it not more likely be an initial step in disbanding the IMF system while there is still time? for some obscure (at least to me) reason? For that would seem the likely outcome of such a move.">

Indeed! That would be the natural first step...but I won't hold my breath! But whatever the reason, if IN FACT they DO ultimately exchange some gold reserves for interest bearing paper, you can be sure that they would not miss the opportunity to characterize the method and reason in a manner that also serves this next thought you've offered.

<"Unless such pronouncements are intended only as smoke and mirrors designed for spooking the herd. In which case such "gold sales" for that dubious "purpose" will never actually take place, will they?">

They might, but other than damaging effects from accompanying propaganda, the net effects from real supply and demand would be zero. The world would not be flooded with gold, as a "buyer" already lies in wait. Aristotle offered some good thoughts recently in this regard. I hope you saw them. If not, imagine the thoughts of the IMF member nations who for years have a claim on this gold proportional to their membership share, and yet do not have it literally in their grasp. Talks of gold sales, (and perhaps the real thing...swap for paper) serves the dual purpose of 1) anti-gold propaganda at a critical time of unprecedented personal demand, and 2) a means to repatriate this gold. In any event, the pretense of helping poor nations is a ruse. If more is afoot than calculated propaganda, you may rest assured that "someone" has specific vital designs on that gold, and no other source is to be found, anywhere! As a non-sovereign entity, the IMF may be the most easily shaken free of its gold.
TownCrier
(03/18/1999; 20:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3546)
Hear ye! SECOND time's a charm!
HEADLINE: Goldbugs may have their day: Old safe haven is cheap while stocks are at record highs--March 16 (National Post)

Our good knight, bmacd called our attention to this fine article on Tuesday. This exact link will take you there in case you did not at the time follow his advice. A fine place to visit...you might even rub elbows with the King of the Castle. Rumor has it he's been there himself.
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost.asp?s2=investing&s3=personalfinance
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 20:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3547)
Aragorn and PH......
Sorry, my fellow knights for jumping in the middle of these conversations. But if I may be so bold...this statement by Aragorn:

"If more is afoot than calculated propaganda, you may rest assured that "someone" has specific vital designs on that gold, and no other source is to be found, anywhere! As a non-sovereign entity, the IMF may be the most easily shaken free of its gold."

This is an extremely important consideration. I will add to your conversation by reminding you that the the London Gold Pool drained the United States of two thirds of its gold reserve to defend the $35 price and all that gold moved from American coffers to European. The subsequent sales in the mid-1970s both from the U.S. Treasury and the IMF coincided with gold legalization in the United States and were supposedly earmarked to meet demand for American consumers who now had the right to own gold for the first time since 1933. This gold went to Europe and the Gulf. It would not surprise me to discover that this recent talk of IMF sales was nothing more than a ploy to move more gold in the direction of those who are not all that confident about the future value of the dollar -- perhaps across the Pacific. An inordinate proportion of the gold contributed to IMF came out of the U.S. Treasury holdings if memory serves, but I remember neither the proportion nor the mechanisms which house it. In fact I received a very good question from one of our readers today on this subject. I have asked his permission to post the question. If I get it, I will post it for consideration and possible attention from anybody who can shed light on the technical aspects of the IMF hoard. It should not be overlooked that all this noise about IMF sales first arose at the G-7 meeting recently in Europe. The connections to a potentially weakened dollar cannot be dismissed.

PH...I wanted to mention that it is great to have you back after a long abscence. You add much to this discussion.
SteveH
(03/18/1999; 20:31:05 MDT - Msg ID: 3548)
discussion and April gold in the green at $284.20
Two points:

Time is near for the gold bull of all time. The anti-gold camp has shown their cards. We see who the big players are.
They are in dire straights to hold it back.

Could it be that money is focusing more and more into (is it 30 stocks?) that make the DOW and the ??? stock that make the NASDAQ indexes. All other stocks with few exceptions appear down or low. It is a narrow-based end of the bull. Money is focused on continuing confidence in equity by those measures reported in media. DOW up (others down), all is well at eight bells. Ding-ding ding-ding ding-ding ding-ding. I read a change in sector now to oil the move did make. Oil, black gold, is first, then the yellow.

PH in LA
(03/18/1999; 20:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3549)
Thanks for your reply, Aragorn! Your words are always well worth waiting for!
And Thanks, Michael, for your greeting. It feels good to be back, although I can't hope more than that my questions from time to time serve to help focus the finer minds assembled here.

PS. Does a post with subject only (nothing inserted into the message box) get lost in cyberspace? That seems to have just happened to one of mine.
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 20:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 3550)
Steve ?????
"All other stocks with few exceptions appear down or low"

Dow, S&P 100& 500, COMPX & NYAX all made new highs today. Only the Russell 2000 is down, just shy of 9% below peak.
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 20:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 3551)
Stranger...
And you, sir......mine.
The Stranger
(03/18/1999; 21:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3552)
Peter
Those are weighted indices, Peter. They are heavily skewed to the stocks with the largest capitalizations. The "average" American stock peaked 11 months ago on April 15. Today, that "average" stock is close to where it was when the Dow bottomed in late summer, near 7400.
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 21:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3553)
Riddles, Peter! You should have seen the original version!
------------------------
Which is less apt to go hungry; he who has cake, or he with only pictures of cake?
Let them eat cake!

got milk?
------------------------
But I decided that it would be too obscure for general consumption. I'm happy to see that the text added as an afterthought brought some pleasure to our Host. A measure of reassurance that I am not an altogether untolerable burden.

Though obvious by now, the key to unlock the message is:

"Cake represents gold. 'Pictures of cake' represent a dollar's price on gold.
Gold by itself is enough."

I really do not know what "got milk?" means, but I see it on advertisements here and there. Have I fallen prey to Madison Avenue?
Gandalf the White
(03/18/1999; 21:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3554)
LOVE IT !!!
<;-)
Aragorn III
(03/18/1999; 21:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 3555)
SteveH, and USAGOLD
SteveH..."You are CORRECT, Sir!"

USAGOLD...In regard to your uncertainty, if memory serves me correctly, the U.S. proportion is 18% in the IMF. Beyond that...???(shrugging shoulders)
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 21:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3556)
Various
Sir Peter of Asherville.....I wanted to say that this FORUM gains much from your presence as well as your love for it. You make the thinkers think and the readers read. There is much to this inert and glittering yellow metal, is there not?

Steven H....Thank you again for your consistent presence here as well as your consitent advocacy. It does not go unnoticed by your fellow posters.....

AEL...My eye went right to that Llewellyn Rockwell article on the banks and fractional reserve banking in this months von Mises letter......It's a good one for the fundamentals -- short and sweet. I will call and ask if we can post it tomorrow if I get some time. I think all should see it. This potentiality for the printing presses running day and night to supply currency made me think of the Weimar Republic.

TRemital....What about the Nightmare German inflation? Is that possible here in your view? Bob Prechter told me the other day that it this is a debt bubble not a currency bubble. He says there's a difference. Had some strong arguments. What do you think, my wise and experienced friend?
Aristotle
(03/18/1999; 21:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3557)
Great evening at the Round Table!
Did anyone take advantage of the past couple of days to exercise (or test for the presence of) their FREE WILL?

I think you all know to what I am referring...
USAGOLD
(03/18/1999; 21:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3558)
Gandalf...O wizardrous one....
I have a question. Did Treebeard have anything interesting to impart?
Aristotle
(03/18/1999; 21:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3559)
Not that I'm big on technicals...
Remember a few months ago, and again a couple weeks ago when I gave the small alert that gold look poised to move upward, and it did immediately each time by ballpark $10 over only a three day period or so?
Well, I'm getting the exact same signals, so if all is as it was before, tomorrow will be a big UP day by the time they go home in New York--to sip Martinis and ponder the meaning of it all.
Gandalf the White
(03/18/1999; 22:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 3560)
The Stranger and USAGOLD's questions, and Peter's comment
Peter A. --- If you think Aragorn III speaks in riddles, you should speak with Treebeard the Ent. WOW, I'm still trying to figure out what he was telling me about tonight.
Something about the black and yellow colors mixing and the the sheeple being told to follow a rainbow. -- I'm still working on it. Help me out here, MK !!!
Stranger --- Treebeard also told me about seeing 96 Hobbits returning from the market yesterday eve, each with a bulging knapsack. As I know that Hobbits can not carry much weight, I calculate that each would be carrying about 100 grains. I also noticed this morning that Hobbitville bank reserves increased about 6,000 more dead presidents.
Goldfly --- Has anyone seen Goldfly ? Did he go on that long trip to the sandbox to see his friends?
<;-)
Peter Asher
(03/18/1999; 22:18:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3561)
Michael
This is a "percieved savings bubble!" To put a weeks worth of planned post notes into one sentence for the moment: The economy is being stimulated by stock sellers spending other peoples "savings." (That being the funds of the stock purchasers)

P.S. Check your E-mail.
Gandalf the White
(03/18/1999; 22:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 3562)
SPOT the dog
Spot the dog has jumped up a full $ downunder and in HK.
Aristotle -- please see my note to The Stranger -- Tks.
<;-)
sheople
(03/18/1999; 22:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3563)
We've almost made it!
DOW 10,000 and then we can all buy gold and retire to the promised land, Geenspan and Rubin have shown us the rainbow, now for the streets lined with GOLD.

Where do we flock for the gold?
turbohawg
(03/18/1999; 22:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3564)
A Query for the Knights
Still trying to piece together Another's story. Last fall, a post pointed out that the story had been constructed along the gold supply/gold demand/oil supply equation ... missing was any consideration of the gold demand variable. ET brought it up again last week. FOA touched on it for the first time upon his return the other night, but only in a general way.

But isn't oil demand critical ?? When the debt bubble pops on a worldwide scale, oil demand is going to plummet. What kind of power are the oil producers going to have in such a climate ?? Trying to reconcile the answer to this question with Another's predictions has vexed the hell out of me.

And if the oil cabal has a plan to change the oil trade from dollar based to euro based, why doesn't Another just spell it out, timeframe and all ?? Why don't the govts of the oil producing states officially announce their intent ??

FOA has made the point at least twice now that the planned move of the oil suppliers out of the dollar and into the euro is not so much about moving to a strong currency as it is about moving to a less weak currency, one without the debt overhang. But how is that going to alter the oil demand dynamic once the bubble pops ?? When the world economic engine locks up, how can they sell oil in any currency if nobody can buy it ??

After re-checking my premise about a month ago and asking myself if there could be a situation where oil demand didn't matter, a scenario has come to mind that I want to run thru the Forum.

If such a plan exists, and they were to announce it, would they not be cutting off their nose to spite their face ?? If they announced said intentions, would not all nations quickly move to the euro ?? Would that not pop the world dollar reserve debt bubble, effectively shutting down the US consumer market in particular, and sharply curtailing oil demand ?? They have no need to make such a significant policy maneuver now. They can take their dollars for oil and convert them into whatever they want to, including gold at a low dollar price. Furthermore, were they to take action that collapsed the world economy, wouldn't they be the one's receiving the brunt of the blame ??

So then, at what time would such a move have the least effect on oil demand while freeing them from any blame for a collapse ?? When would the oil demand variable be as close to a constant as it will ever be ?? Is it not AFTER the debt bubble has burst, when demand has hit it's low ?? And isn't it at this time that the transistion from one currency to another would cause the least monetary turmoil in the world ??

This scenario leads to the conclusion that the timing of the move is set not to a date but to an event, and after, not before. The dollar may actually be strong at that moment in a flight to liquidity. But the move of oil to the euro would cause the dollar to do it's best rubble impersonation. Then, the only protection for those whose wealth is dollar denominated is gold.

Does this one potential scenario not answer the vagueness of the timing question, the apparent lack of concern for oil demand, the missing announcements or rumors from official sources of their intent, and the reason for Another's continued self-assured admonishments to invest in gold ??

While much transitory thought has been put into solving this puzzle over the last few months, I'm sure there are holes in this answer . But perhaps it can serve to help us get closer to the truth (if not too ridiculous). Knights ??
turbohawg
(03/18/1999; 23:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3565)
USAGOLD
Michael, please allow me to follow your lead and boldly jump into your conversation.

>TRemital....What about the Nightmare German inflation? Is that possible here in your view? Bob Prechter told me the other day that it this is a debt bubble not a currency bubble. He says there's a difference. Had some strong arguments. What do you think, my wise and experienced
friend?<

Because the expansion of the money supply during this cycle of history relies on the expansion of credit, it would seem that hyperinflation is out of the question on the front end. Some quick numbers, in no particular order of importance:

The aggregate money supply is about $6T ... the currency supply is about $650B (10%), counting the extra $200B the Fed says it has stashed in case of a run. That leaves $450B now in circulation, with 2/3 of that, $300B, outside the US, or about $150B in circulation in the US.

With the value of the entire US, stocks + real assets, about $20T and US govt debt + future obligations about $20T (source: Prechter's At the Crest ...), the US would have to sell everything at today's prices to get just about even, not counting other things.

Other things: $140T in world derivative postions, with $40T traced directly to US institutions. US consumer debt: $1.3T with personal bankruptcies setting records the last few years. Margin debt at record levels (can't recall figures).

Looked at from another perspective: Total cash in circulation ~ $650B --- Total 'savings' in stock market ~ $12T ... what if everyone wants their money ?? From your News & Views --- banks have on hand 1.6% of total deposits ... what if everyone (or just a few more) wants their money ??

With the velocity of money being such as it is, credit can contract far faster than the Fed can create it. They learned that once in the '30's. In light of all this, doesn't deflation seem inevitable, recent inflationary indicators notwithstanding ??

But when the bubble pops and the credit contraction viciously sets in, the Fed's only recourse to expand the money supply then will be to print more paper dollars. And that's when hyperinflation becomes a real threat, on the back end.

Well, that's the way this observer sees it anyway. Despite being known of late for missing some calls on timing regarding the US stock market (and hitting many others), I think Prechter has nailed it.

Sorry for butting in ... I'll go to my corner.
Gandalf the White
(03/19/1999; 00:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3566)
Hobbits Award for GREAT posts
Goes to Turbohawg for those DEEP thoughts and questions.
<;-)
Aristotle
(03/19/1999; 00:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 3567)
turbohawg...powerful posts, those.
Try to hang around the Round Table a bit more, would ya? My head is about ready to hit the pillow. I'll be giving the OPEC thing more thought, as you've requested.

I'm going to chime in on Michael's topic with B.P. "...this is a debt bubble not a currency bubble. He says there's a difference. Had some strong arguments. What do you think...?"
Seeing what Bob's position is, the statement of arguments shows me what Michael's position probably is. I can see why they both had different postions to support, because at this time, both are correct.

We have a currency bubble. No doubt about it. It is a fiat currency, and fiat currency springs to life from lending...an extention of credit...DEBT...call it what you like. We therefore have a debt bubble. The two go hand in hand. Can't have a currency bubble without the debt bubble when you are dealing with fiat money.

Now here is where it gets really ugly. As the business/economic cycle slows, and the new borrowing of money does not outpace the repayments of old debt, the currency bubble collapses (due to the money destruction phenomenon when bank loans are repaid), but the debt bubble can't fully collapse, because more money is owed (thanks to the interest on the loan) than was created in the first place!

(((VERY IMPORTANT****if ANYONE does not understand what I mean by the money destruction during loan repayment, please ask. This is a very important phenomenon than is vital for you all to understand.)))

The currency bubble is like a time-release capsule. The new money is created instantly upon the signing of the loan. It collapses over time as the re-payments are stretched out over the life of the loan. At the bitter end, everyone is competing for the last remaining dollar to apply to his outstanding debt. The money is gone but the debt remains which is equivalent to the cummulative compounded interest over the lives of the original individual loans since the beginning of the nation's fiat currency. Let me tell you, brother, it adds up!

At the end, assuming people choose bankruptcy over the prospect of borrowing money to service past debts, they is no money, people are bankrupt, and banks are insolvent.

Only Gold remains; a permanent and viable money supply as a means to conduct commerce when all else is bleak. It never gets destroyed because it came with the universe and is ours for the using. It is not borrowed from thin air with the condition that it must be returned to thin air like fiat currency/bank loans are. The only thing that makes fiat money valuable is this very thing...that it exists via contract to be repaid with interest, and the principle destroyed in the process. Taken as a collective, banks create TEMPORARY currency, but they create PERMANENT debt.

So Michael, right now you are both right. Given enough time, only Bob will be right. But who will be holding the gold, the only money remaining on Earth?

Now you all know the REAL reason I am living on a personal gold standard. Y2K simply makes things interesting.

Funny, isn't it? That the Wall St. "experts" talk about gold being dead because inflation is dead, or that gold is only good as a hedge against inflation. HA! In a deflation, it becomes the only money left standing, baby!!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/19/1999; 00:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3568)
Turbohawg and ALL!
Thank you for the numbers to crunch teeth into. 12 trillion of stock equity out of 20 trillion total asset value? Very interesting. Nobody owes anybody a dime of that 12 trillion. That's stock bought and paid for, the money is spent! Those stock holders have their "Piece of the rock", their shares in the means of production, and that's it. If no one wants to buy those shares, well hey guys, go to work! You've got the factories, the willing workers, the raw materials, if you can obtain them by pay or by promise: "Roll-em."

Everybody get it? There's no DEBT in that 12 trillion.

The real problem here is that all those people 'thought' they had 12 trillion dollars of savings. What happens when they realize they do not???
FOA
(03/19/1999; 05:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3569)
Turbohawg and ALL
I hope to be here all day March the 20. Another should send in for discussion around 6:00 Atlantic Time. WE can ALL talk about Gold, Euro and OIL! Good post Turbohawg!
SteveH
(03/19/1999; 06:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3570)
April gold $283.90...
Silver on cusp of $5.00.
The Stranger
(03/19/1999; 06:36:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3571)
turbohawg
I thought we already put that myth about the Fed's failure in the 30's to bed.

turbohawg
(03/19/1999; 06:42:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3572)
oops
this statement from Msg# 3565 >From your News & Views --- banks have on hand 1.6% of total deposits< should read 1.16%, not that it makes any real difference.

Glad others found something of interest from Msg# 3564 and 3565. Looking forward to more discussion here later ... got to head out to the real world of working for a living.
turbohawg
(03/19/1999; 06:45:58 MDT - Msg ID: 3573)
Stranger
so did I ... but no time this morning for slaying that dragon ... maybe over the weekend.

Note: a great reference is America's Great Depression by Murray Rothbard.
The Stranger
(03/19/1999; 06:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3574)
Prechter
Just for the record: if Robert Prechter has any money left, he has not followed his own terrible advice over the years. While no man's voice should be stilled for past mistakes, we should take care who we cite as experts.
NORTH OF 49
(03/19/1999; 07:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3575)
Hope this wierd satillite connection works
Sorry for short post, but situation somewhat tense over here--not so tense that I felt that the following site should be reviewed. A "MUST" read.

www.house.gov/banking/31799pau.htm

No49
T. Remital
(03/19/1999; 08:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3576)
HISTORY DOES REPEAT
I believe pog @300 will be more impacting than dow 10.000 only because the majority
of people don't expect gold to move up. It is also my opinion that people will look back
on this day and wish they had purchased gold instead of ridding the massacure after the
bubble breaks. Most of you do not remember the 1929 crash. IT was a disaster, the same
euphoria is evident in todays market that existed then. One interesting note ..In 1930 the
pog went from 20.75 to35.00 yet Homestake minning went from $ 20.00 to $500.00 at the
same time people were jumping out of windows ,because of their losses in other stocks. In
1929 the big fuel for cause of drop was 10% margin] Today it will probably be a
combination of mutual funds, and derivatives all heading for the same door at the same time.
A RISKY PREDICTION...Look out for a big reversal in financials VERY SOON..
SteveH
(03/19/1999; 08:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3577)
North of 49'
I agree, but let's save people the effort of changing URL's:

Statement from US Rep. Ron Paul on
Clinton Administration Proposal that the IMF sell-off
gold holdings

"The Clinton Administration's proposal for the International Monetary Fund to sell some of their gold holdings should be
rejected outright as misguided and historically offensive.

"I am pleased Rep. Jim Saxton's Joint Economic Committee has today criticized the proposed gold sales, stating in a press
release that it 'will accommodate more IMF loans, subsidies, and moral hazard problems.' A renewed IMF would further
distort the market pricing of credit and aid the transfer of wealth from taxpayers to a few select groups: officials of inept, and
often corrupt and brutal, governments; already over-paid international bureaucrats who don't pay taxes themselves; and Wall
Street fat cats.

"In short, the debt relief proposal is an admission of failure of the IMF's 'paper gold' policies. The IMF pushes irresponsible
monetary policies with ever-larger debt burdens on client countries. These policies only exacerbate human suffering around the
world as citizens of poor countries suffer the burden of a higher cost of government, higher cost of capital and reduced
economic growth.

"This is a prime example of harming nations with the very mechanism which purports to be helping them. For example, Ghana
is one of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) the debt relief proposal is meant to help. However, 40% of Ghana's
total exports come from gold whose price would fall. Such a move will also destabilize Nelson Mandela's South Africa, which
is the largest producer of gold in the world. Needless to say, producers of gold in the United States will be similarly hard hit.

"It is ironic that proponents of U.S. membership in the IMF argue we have a claim to an asset. However, by selling off the
IMF's only real 'assets,' any possible value to the US evaporates.

"It should not be forgotten that the money the U.S. used to pay our initial contribution to the IMF came from the 'paper profit'
of President Franklin Roosevelt's forced confiscation of gold from the American people. The gold that the U.S. government
transferred to the IMF should be returned to the American people, from whom it was forcibly taken.

"I am so amazed by the cavalier attitude toward the American people and the citizens of countries around the world, that I
today introduced HR1147 to withdraw the US from the IMF and HR1148 to abolish the Federal Reserve."
USAGOLD
(03/19/1999; 08:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3578)
Today's Gold Market: Oligarchial Thievery, Robert Rubin and (again) the IMF
MARKET UPDATE (3/19/99) Gold improved slightly this morning on reports of "good"
physical demand in Europe overnight. Concern about IMF gold sales began to fade as more
market players began to realize that if these liquidations were to occur they would be in the
distant future and over the opposition of both Germany and Japan -- a difficult obstacle for
the pro-sales British/American contingent.

Along these lines, an interesting set of circumstances emerged about the IMF in testimony
from Treas. Sec. Robert Rubin yesterday before a congressional panel. Rubin testified that
loan monies sent to Russia out of the IMF last summer "may have been siphoned-off" by the
wealthy Russian oligarchs. It seems a huge flow of cash went out of Russia at the time the
loan proceeds were distributed into Swiss bank accounts and from there God knows where.
Now, Russian prime minister Primakov will arrive in Washington to pick up the upcoming
$22 billion IMF gratuity, or "loan installment," if you prefer IMF verbiage.

It seems that Clinton/Rubin have it in mind to raid the IMF gold hoard to help finance the
oligarch's thievery -- not to mention the thievery of other "politicians" around the world. In
what has to be one of the most astonishing betrayals of public trust, this writer has seen in
his long career reporting on economic/financial events, the New York Times says that
Primakov might get the loan because "there is pressure on the IMF to lend Russia just
enough money to allow it to pay back several billion dollars that it owes to the fund in
coming months."

Now...let me see if I understand this: The IMF is pressuring the IMF to lend money to
Russia so that it will pay back money Russia owes the IMF -- unless of course the oligarchs
should happen to bleed the money off before it gets turned around. This is not just
astonishing; it is quite literally unbelievable. The hazy picture as to why the Clinton
administration would be so vocal in its support of IMF gold becomes a bit clearer. But why
bother with the formality of sales and loans and all that paperwork. My suggestion would be
just to send the oligarchs the bullion. I'm sure they would make good use of it.

Through all of this, it is not difficult to understand why gold physical gold demand is up.
It's as if the Three Stooges were in charge of U.S. economic policy -- the absurdity is nearly
over-whelming. Maybe that's it....Perhaps they are just clowning around, the short skit will
end, and we will return to a reality where banking and austerity return as words that are used
next to each other. And we discover it was all one of those illogical, silly dreams that all of
us have from time to time.

Other than the fiasco just outlined, there isn't much happening in the markets except the Dow
ignoring reality in its own version of March Madness. Dow 20,000 or bust! Go Gonzaga!

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
Aragorn III
(03/19/1999; 09:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3579)
Information for the Public
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks on before the Futures Industry Association, Boca Raton, Florida--March 19, 1999

[...]Almost all the time investors adopt strategies that seek profit only in
a relatively long- term context, fostering the propensity for
convergence toward equilibrium that ordinarily characterizes financial
markets. But from time to time (and quite possibly with increasing
frequency) the resulting propensity toward convergent equilibrium has
given way as investors suffer an abrupt collapse of comprehension of,
and confidence in, future economic events. Risk aversion accordingly
rises dramatically and deliberative trading strategies are replaced by
rising fear-induced disengagement. Yield spreads on relatively risky
assets widen dramatically. In the more extreme manifestation, the
inability to differentiate among degrees of risk drives trading
strategies to ever more liquid instruments. Strategies become so
tentative that traders want the capacity to reverse decisions at minimum
cost. As a consequence, even among riskless assets, illiquidity premiums
rise dramatically as investors seek the heavily traded "on-the-run" issues.

History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly,
most often with little advance notice. They are self-reinforcing
processes that can compress into a very short time period. Panic market
reactions are characterized by a dramatic shift to maximize short term
value, and are an extension of human behavior that manifests itself in
all forms of human interaction--a set of responses that does not seem to
have changed over the generations. I defy anyone to distinguish a
speculative price pattern for 1999 from one for 1899 if the charts
specify neither the dates nor the levels of the prices.

-----------------
Or 1929 for that matter. Isn't that right, T.Remital?

got gold?
TownCrier
(03/19/1999; 09:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3580)
From Bridge News
Moscow--Mar 19--Russia is expected to produce 106 tonnes of gold this year,
7% less than in 1998, but the output is likely to increase to 125-130
tonnes in 2000, a jump of 18-23%, Chairman of the Union of Gold Producers
Valery Boiko said. He added that the decline in production was caused by
the fact that the government stopped financing gold producers in 1998,
while the new practice of commercial banks financing gold production was
taking time to become truly effective. By Sergei Padalko, Bridge News,
Story .12895

Reprinted with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Phantom
(03/19/1999; 09:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3581)
Michael Kosares': Today's Gold Market: Oligarchial Thievery, Robert Rubin and (again) the IMF
This is the best analysis of what's going on at the financial markets.
Yesterday I wrote to Congressman Saxton that the IMF doesn't deserve to hold gold on behalf of the American people or behlaf of any other people which aspires to act upon honest values and it should be withdrawn instead of giving permission to sell it.
Gandalf the White
(03/19/1999; 09:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3582)
WOW --- What a day --- and it has only begun !!
Wish I could stay and watch the DOW close under the 10K mark, never to return to that lofty five digits again in my lifetime. Wish I could stay and study the GREAT posts for the remainder of the day. Happy to see that N49 is able to watch FOA and ANOTHER from afar. Thanks Aristotle for really nailing the Prechter DEBT question. Even the Hobbits are able to now understand that answer. Now the Hobbits really liked "The Three Stooges" labeling, but wonder just where AG will align himself ? The Hobbits are looking forward to this weekend and the wisdom of FOA and ANOTHER. Well I am off to take care of a few Orcs today, and will return tired and bloody (Orc blood only) to receive the teachings of FOA and ANOTHER. Please keep my seat at the TABLEROUND as there seems to be many lurkers now joining the Knights assembled. The more the merrier!! A larger table, PLEASE MK !!
<;-)
USAGOLD
(03/19/1999; 10:19:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3583)
A Private E-Mail from TH...Posted with Permission
As a regular to your Site ; thought i would 'toss in my two cents worth' if it is helpful; To understand this we have to understand who is the real monetary power in Washington and whatare his core beliefs ?

It is none other than Mr. Greenspan of course and when Rubin and Clinton speak, they believe they are uttering Greenspans' CW. (conventional wisdom) ; Years ago as a budding economist Greenspan achieved the conviction that there is a 'two-way street' correlation between the Gold Price and Inflation; therefore one of his weapons to subdue
inflation (without reduced domestic cost) is to help manipulate circumstances and events to achieve a lower Gold Price; much less consequential domestically for him and the
'minions' who utter his credo; However, even Mr. Greenspan has been late to the party in understanding the New Economy and its' amazing effects on US productivity; the real contributor to lower US Domestic inflation; The consequence of this is that Gold is and will become a 'commodity' in
its' own right and will become less consequential in its inflation linkage high or low; In other words, as true demand for Gold from emerging economic Giants, particulary China and India takes root over the next few years, the Gold price will become very responsive on the upside and there will be no cause or effect whatsoever on US or World Inflation; Then the IMF and its advisors will woefully regret their short sightedness if they sell at current prices; Thought you might be interested;



beesting
(03/19/1999; 12:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 3584)
People in high places may be watching this Forum----GOOD!!!!
Yesterday March 18,1999 I tried to send an E-Mail to Anglogold and posted it here for all to see,today March 19,1999 a news release from Bobby Godsell CEO of Anglogold the worlds largest Gold producer:
Bobby Godsell CEO of Anglogold said in an interwiew today:Anglogold may go into the retail business,if we can make money for our shareholders,why not? Our purpose is to make money for our shareholders,maybe we can do that by retailing Gold.
Could you sell 10-Tola bars or wafer bars or GOLD BY THE GRAM to individuals in the west? The question was asked:
Mr. Godsells answer--The thing is nobody has tried.Perhaps someone should try.World Gold production is 2,400 tons but consumption exceeds that by 1,100tons each year.
Mr. Godsell is emphatic that he does not see Gold as a commodity--I view Gold as a product.If we cannot market this product than we are absolutely bloody useless!
The entire article can be seen at:
http://barney.co.za/news/mar99/anglo19.htm


An additional news release from South Africa concerning U.S. Senator Bryan(Dem)from Nevada U.S.A. opposing IMF Gold sales.

Why do I have to go to South Africa by cyberspace to get news about major opposition view points concerning Americans????

A record 8.86 million OZ. of Gold were drawn from Nevada soils(U.S.) in 1998 making the state the number 3 Gold producer in the world behind South Africa and Australia.While production was up 1 million troy ounces from 1997 income remained flat because of depressed prices. Nevada mines have laid off at least 1200 workers in the last year. Complete article at:
http://www.barney.co.za/news/mar99/gold18.htm


Looks like the start of a tsunami(great tidal wave)for GOLD..........beesting
USAGOLD
(03/19/1999; 13:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 3585)
Rubin Rumors
We are hearing rumors from all sorts of different sources in the gold market that Robert Rubin has already resigned and that Clinton will make the announcement at 4pm eastern time after markets have closed. THIS IS A RUMOR. UNCONFIRMED.
Aristotle
(03/19/1999; 13:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3586)
Don't HANG me! (2 outta 3 ain't bad)
Here's a blast from the recent past (half a day ago, last night)

"Aristotle (3/18/99; 21:50:47MDT - Msg ID:3559)
Not that I'm big on technicals...
Remember a few months ago, and again a couple weeks ago when I gave the
small alert that gold look poised to move upward, and it did immediately
each time by ballpark $10 over only a three day period or so?
Well, I'm getting the exact same signals, so if all is as it was before,
tomorrow will be a big UP day by the time they go home in New York--to
sip Martinis and ponder the meaning of it all."

Well, here we are with a rock-steady price, and a good opportunity to swap paper assets for real assets to gain a little peace of mind throughout the weekend. Do you ever get the feeling when you are toying with a gold purchase...waiting for the right time...and the weekend arrives and you're still sitting on a mound of paper...do you ever get that fidgety feeling by the time Sunday arrives that if you had it to do all over again you woulda done the deal?
Yeah...I hate that feeling.

Happiness is having a mailman who complains of chronic back pains. ---Aristotle
TownCrier
(03/19/1999; 13:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3587)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Higher; Gold, Silver Consolidate

New York-March 19-FWN--Gold and silver futures
consolidated here today, although they both managed to
finish with modest gains in the aftermath of heavy sell-offs
at the beginning of the week.
April gold finished with a $1 gain to $284.50. The
market was described as quiet, however, with the April
futures confined to a narrow $1.50 range between the
overnight ACCESS and day session.
"Obviously, the overall lingering fundamental news
right now is the continuation of the fallout from the
commentary on Monday about potential IMF sales," said Dave
Meger, metals analyst with Alaron Trading.
On Monday, French President Jacques Chirac commented
that poor countries need debt relief, even if it means
selling International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold. The German
government also indicated support for this concept, provided
that the Bundesbank agreed.
Then on Tuesday, U.S. President Bill Clinton echoed
that IMF gold sales should be considered to provide debt
forgiveness. The net result is that the April futures fell
from a close last Friday of $293.40 to a low Tuesday of
$282.
"But now that we have gone through this washout period
in the gold, you're getting some consolidation-type trades,"
said Meger. He noted that the area from $282 to $284 appears
to be "relatively supportive for the time being."
He put the initial support for April gold at $282, then
listed further downside levels of $279 and $275. Resistance
was put at $285.20 and $287.50.

Meger noted there was little reaction to probably the
biggest piece of news in the silver market today--the
increase of 1,750,714 troy ounces in COMEX warehouse stocks,
reported after Thursday's close. This brought the total to
80,996,228.
Overall, this total is still low by historical
standards, but nevertheless is up from the 72 million to 75
million area where it had been not long ago.
"It's losing its tightness appeal," said Meger.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/19/1999; 14:20:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3588)
FWN Closing Energies
April crude oil futures, which are set to expire on
Monday, also strengthened at the closing. Crude oil rose to
a high of $15.28 up 28 cents and closed at $15.24. It fell
to a low of $14.85 earlier today.
Today's initial market weakness followed some profit
taking and long liquidation ahead of next week's
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
meeting. Analysts had said this morning's weakness could not
persist because traders and investors would be unwilling to
hold short positions until after the OPEC summit.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
(03/19/1999; 15:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3589)
Can't swing a cat without hitting a dead bond around here
HEADLINE: Treasurys fall apart: Pending supply upsets market--March 19 CBS MarketWatch

Rubin's retirement expected sooner rather than later, bonds tank for other reasons.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990319/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo

HEADLINE: Banks divided on debt restructuring--March 19 CBS MarketWatch

Learn all about nearly worthless paper--5 cents on the dollar!
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/moscow.htx?source=blq/yhoo
TownCrier
(03/19/1999; 16:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3590)
News you can use
HEADLINE: Russia needs reforms for IMF deal to work-Clinton--March 19 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990319/7d.html

HEADLINE: Clinton says hopes Rubin will stay in office--March 19 (Reuters)

Rubin and Greenspan in the future
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990319/51.html

HEADLINE: US CREDIT OUTLOOK--No spring bloom for T-bonds--March 19 (Reuters)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990319/7x.html
bmacd
(03/19/1999; 18:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3591)
USAGOLD, Turbohawg, TownCrier
Hi all, reading last nights posts after I wimped out. Michael....thank you, much appreciated, I am honored. To TownCrier, thank you for the correct link. I'm hopeless with that stuff! Being a female, I always figure, maybe if I 'draw' a map.....It was a great article to read.
Now to USAGold, and Turbohawg re gold, oil and the Euro, well here's my 2 pennies. Believe me, I much admire Another and FOA, so I could never really disagree with anything they say, or have said. They're wiser than I. I certainly agree that transfer to the Euro, is great as the Euro is not debt backed. I know as well as many, that too much debt will literally kill. Well Turbohawg, even when this debt bubble comes crashing, oil will still be purchased. The world will not stop forever, that's not human nature. Any growth will need energy, and that's still oil and other commodities. I really question that the oil price problem over the last couple of years was really over supply, except for those few storage areas, but more a game. Likely, when the debt problem really hits the fan, it'll cave in the one debt ridden currency that's been responsible for so much manipulation, ie the US dollar. I'm not saying, others won't be in trouble too, but the USD will take the huge whack. I'm from Canada, I'm sure the Canuckbuck will get hit too, as we're massively in debt. (I have such a tough time controlling my anger when I discuss politics with people who bash anyone who wants to cut expenses in government. What are these people missing, this country is flat broke..wake up and smell the stale coffee). Mind you , we're resource based, so our markets may be OK as countries rebuild, but I stray. This is the whole idea behind switching to Euro, I believe. It's not debt based and therefore will not be crushed in a debt crush. Asia already crumbled, they may be the leaders of new growth. They'll need oil. By the way, if debt ridden currencies finally do crumble, gold will do just fine. Maybe people will trade real gold for oil. Back to sticks and stones.
bmacd
(03/19/1999; 18:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3592)
Aristotle
Ooops, should have read further before I posted. Much of what I was driving at, you covered beautifully in your #3567 post.
bmacd
(03/19/1999; 19:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3593)
USAGOLD, Turbohawg, TownCrier
Hi all, reading last nights posts after I wimped out. Michael....thank you, much appreciated, I am honored. To TownCrier, thank you for the correct link. I'm hopeless with that stuff! Being a female, I always figure, maybe if I 'draw' a map.....It was a great article to read.
Now to USAGold, and Turbohawg re gold, oil and the Euro, well here's my 2 pennies. Believe me, I much admire Another and FOA, so I could never really disagree with anything they say, or have said. They're wiser than I. I certainly agree that transfer to the Euro, is great as the Euro is not debt backed. I know as well as many, that too much debt will literally kill. Well Turbohawg, even when this debt bubble comes crashing, oil will still be purchased. The world will not stop forever, that's not human nature. Any growth will need energy, and that's still oil and other commodities. I really question that the oil price problem over the last couple of years was really over supply, except for those few storage areas, but more a game. Likely, when the debt problem really hits the fan, it'll cave in the one debt ridden currency that's been responsible for so much manipulation, ie the US dollar. I'm not saying, others won't be in trouble too, but the USD will take the huge whack. I'm from Canada, I'm sure the Canuckbuck will get hit too, as we're massively in debt. (I have such a tough time controlling my anger when I discuss politics with people who bash anyone who wants to cut expenses in government. What are these people missing, this country is flat broke..wake up and smell the stale coffee). Mind you , we're resource based, so our markets may be OK as countries rebuild, but I stray. This is the whole idea behind switching to Euro, I believe. It's not debt based and therefore will not be crushed in a debt crush. Asia already crumbled, they may be the leaders of new growth. They'll need oil. By the way, if debt ridden currencies finally do crumble, gold will do just fine. Maybe people will trade real gold for oil. Back to sticks and stones.
bmacd
(03/19/1999; 19:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 3594)
Rubin
For all who haven't read Bill Fleckenstein today, in particular Rubin's quote..www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap
Mooski
(03/19/1999; 21:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3595)
March Madness
Booga!

NCAA March Madness: First off, USAGOLD, be careful when you say, 'Go Gonzaga'. I'm a Gophers fan... (Grrr... Had them going to the Sweet 16... I will still cheer them on against UConn. Gotta love those Cinderalla teams...) I love March Madness. Dickie V, I can live without BAY-BEE!

Financial March Madness: With the Dow bouncing around 10K, we all hold our breath on just how high the thing can go. (20,000 or bust!)

bmacd brings up a good point - Canada has the natural resources to recover. The United States is now a 'service economy', whatever that is...

So when things go 'boom', I'd rather be in Canada for the long haul than in the US, since it would seem that the road to recovery would be easier up in the Great White North.

(But I'd bring a few dozen cartons of smokes with me for bartering purposes. Sorry folx, Camels are worth more than Krugerrands up there...:)

Goofy prediction/Dow March Madness: If the Dow can maintain 10K, the POG won't hit $300. ONCE the Dow drops under 9500, then the POG will hit $300. (Assuming that the Three Stooges stop their March Madness...)
USAGOLD
(03/19/1999; 21:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3596)
bmacd...Tribute...
This is off subject but I wanted to say something about going to see "Shakespeare in Love" tonight. I cannot remember the last time this happened, but I have to say that I was stunned as I walked out of the movie theater. I was speechless with the quality of this film. Gwyneth Paltrow was unbelievable -- one of the finest performances by an actress I have ever seen. Her recitations of passages from Romeo and Juliet gave me goosebumps. The actor who played Shakespeare ( I cannot remember his name), my wife tells me, did not get mention for an academy award -- a ripoff. He brought the move home. In the last scene he read the beginning passages of Twelfth Night which ranks in my mind as one of the finest pieces of writing in the English language. This recitation alone was worth going out of your way for. All in all, I must say the movie showed me a side of the bard which I truly appreciate. For this man, the words flowed as naturally as the birds singing in the morning -- perhaps the greatest writing talent who has ever lived. Like Mozart only he used the written word. (The director made much of his ink-stained hand.) Go see it if you haven't, bmacd. It's the worth going out of your way for.
onlychild
(03/19/1999; 21:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3597)
Dow 20,000
Gentlemen, I had an interesting conversation yesterday that I want to pass along. My grandpa (a goldmeister ) left this world recently and entrusted me with tending to his affairs. I sat yesterday and talked at length with his long time friend and broker who is now a Senior Vice President for Solomon Smith-Barney. I instructed him to liquidate all of Grandpa's assets because I am jittery about the market at 10,000. He told me that "10,000 is here to stay, this is the future." He then proceeded to show me some statistics he had been studying. It seems that the top 40 stocks in the S&P 500 create 90% of the gains. SSB has a stock portfolio plan that monitors the best 20 out of those 40. If a stock performs then they buy more, if not they dump it (sort of a catch 22 the way I see it). The more they buy then the more they buy. And I know that SSB isn't the only institution doing this. I questioned the fact that if everyone is chasing the same 20 stocks won't they become greatly overvalued? He told me "All we have to do is keep the money flowing into the market"��..No s�t! I'm no rocket scientist, but that has to end someday. Seeing the look on my face, he pulled out a chart that tracked the number of people age 55 in the US. Their research has shown the that over the years the dow rises and falls in direct proportion to the amount of people age 55. According to SSB's graph the dow will hit 20,000 somewhere around the year 2006. Since this graph was for internal use only, it extended several years past 2006. The bad news is that the back side of 2006 looks like the west face of Devil's Tower. It appeared to me that in the two years following the 2006 peak that their projection was a return to dow 8000! I don't think I was supposed to notice that. I have always been a bit astounded at "educated" men thinking that this growth is sustainable. The fact is that they're not as na�ve as I thought. The folks at the top are already well aware of when to bail out. Look out Joe Investor! The big boys are going to rip out your sphincter and use it for a rubber band around a roll of worthless stock certificates! My personal guess is there will be a decline before year's end but their chart apparently doesn't take Y2K or the Asian Contagion into account. Since I'm a food-storing, gold-hoarding, gun-slinging paranoid nut, I'll just sit back and watch the show. "We watch this new market together, yes?"
onlychild
(03/19/1999; 22:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 3598)
Gentlemen
Sorry bmacd, "and ladies". No voice, no face, hard to tell gender. How many females sit at this table? I thought about cracking a joke about getting me a beer, but didn't figure it would be well received.
Peter Asher
(03/19/1999; 23:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 3599)
beesting!! Ligtbulb and Egg
That's delayed light bulb in my head and egg on my face. For not observing the obvious about gold and silver money being coined by weight and pegged to the Spot market. What Spot market? The one that sells a gram of gold for a one gram gold coin? How did we miss that?
SteveH
(03/20/1999; 04:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3600)
I like this one...


Michael Butler

Ferndale, Washington

March 19, 1999

mbutler@nas.com

To the Editor:

President Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin are
currently proposing the sale of $1.5 to $3.0 billion
worth of IMF gold reserves for the purpose of debt
forgiveness to benefit the world's poor. I believe that the
stated purpose of this proposed sale is in fact a cynical
fraud; rather its real purpose is to depress and control
the price of gold for the benefit of their friends.

The IMF has no gold reserves. All IMF gold is owned by and
pledged by member countries in a double
accounting scheme for reserve purposes. This is why congress
must approve the sale of any IMF gold � it's really U.S. gold
owned by the citizens of the United States. The real
purpose of the sale of U.S. gold reserves through the
IMF is to set a precedent for raids on U.S. reserves in the
future; in other words another piggy bank to be raided
any time someone dreams up a politically high-minded
scheme.

I will first address what the Clinton administration and other
concerned parties stand to gain by selling gold
reserves because the first principle of investigation is "look
to
the motive". The concerned parties who will benefit are not
the world's poor; rather they are hedge funds,
investment houses, bullion dealers, stock speculators and the
Clinton administration.

Last fall the public was introduced to the term "yen-carry
trade" in the aftermath of the Long Term Capital
Management ( LTCM ) debacle in which the U.S. Federal
Reserve played a central role in bailing out LTCM's investors.
Hedge funds or others seeking risky-but-cheap
cash for speculation purposes could borrow Japanese yen
at interest rates below one percent. LTCM would convert the
yen to dollars ( or rubles ) for speculation purposes
and hope to repay the loan later at less than borrowed
cost as long as the yen continued to fall in value relative to
the dollar. You will recall that the yen-carry trade blew
up last fall when the yen appreciated 15% in one
week against the U.S. dollar. This necessitated a bailout by
the fed because, had LTCM liquidated its positions in
the market, the U.S. stock market would have crashed.

It is not well known that there is also a gold-carry trade
similar to the yen-carry trade that is currently used by
speculators in the same manner. Years ago central banks
started lending their gold to producers ( miners ) so that
they could hedge against a future drop in the price of gold.
The central banks receive a low interest rate, around
0.7 to 1.2 percent today, and are repaid later with mined
gold. An unfortunate side effect for these mining
companies is that this hedging also tends to keep the price of
gold down.

In the 1990's speculators saw these gold loans as a ready
source of cheap off-balance-sheet cash. They
borrowed gold from the central banks through the intermediary
services of bullion dealers and sold it into the market. These
speculators are different from the mining companies
because they must go back into the market in the
future to buy gold with which to repay the loan. They are, in
effect, speculating that the price of gold will not go up.


As long as the price of gold stays low borrowers can repay the
loan with cheap gold in the future. If the price of
gold goes up however, they will all need to rush to
cover, driving the price of gold up further. The result would
be more LTCM's. In fact, LTCM had borrowed
around 300 tons of gold by last fall which the Fed helped
them resolve in an off-market transaction so as not to
increase the gold price.

Presently it is estimated that the total amount of gold
borrowed from central banks, including our Fed, is between
3000 and 8000 tons. Total annual gold production is
only 2550 tons! Actually no one really knows the correct
amount because the world's central banks, including our
Fed, do not disclose the amount of their gold reserves
which are out on loan, hence at risk. If the price of gold
rose significantly it might be impossible for all of the
borrowers to buy enough gold to repay their loans, causing
default. Central banks that have placed their reserve assets
at risk for a tiny return might have to face credulous
taxpayers.

Bullion banks benefit from this gold-carry trade because they
make enormous profits as intermediaries between
the central banks and gold borrowers. The real beauty
and tragedy of this scheme versus the yen-carry trade is that
should the gold price rise, all the borrowers need to
do is borrow more gold and sell it in the market to
depress the price. Unfortunately this process is perilous and
doomed to failure in the long run, hence a new scheme
to mobilize the world's gold reserves in the interest
of a perpetual-motion negative-interest-rate borrowing scheme.

Who else benefits from the sale of U.S. gold reserves other
than hedge funds, investment banks, bullion dealers
and speculators? The answer is the Bill Clinton, the
Democratic party, the U.S. Fed, and any government with loose
monetary policy. As long as the price of gold,
now at an 18 year low, remains depressed it is seen as
evidence of low inflation. Conversely if the gold price rises
it will place pressure on the Fed to increase interest
rates, thereby perhaps causing both stocks and Bill
Clinton's polls to decline.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department stand to gain
by a low gold price because it lowers CRB and
inflation statistics, thereby improving the Fed's
"report card".

This week there has been an orchestrated raid on the price of
gold led by Goldman Sachs, the bullion banks and
others ( gold is down $14 in one week! ) . It is interesting
to note the coincidence of this successful raid with press
announcements pushing the sale of IMF gold by Jacque
Chirac ( Monday ) , Bill Clinton ( Tuesday ) , and Robert
Rubin ( Wednesday ) . This is unprecedented. Given Robert
Rubin's relationship with Goldman Sachs it also
implies collusion in terms of timing because the foundation
for
this raid was laid last week in the futures markets prior to
these announcements. Collusion in an effort to control
the market price of a commodity violates U.S. antitrust
law.

Bill Clinton's stated purpose, debt forgiveness for poor
countries, is a cynical fraud. Why not just forgive some
IMF debts or reduce the interest rate paid by developing
countries to the IMF? The IMF gave Brazil alone some $40
billion. What's another billion here or there? The
proposed sale only involves between $1.5 and $3.0 billion
dollars in gold. The answer should be obvious � this is a sham
proposal with an ulterior motive, the depression and
control of the gold price. How many miners in Africa,
South America, Central America, Mexico and Indonesia are out
of work because of depressed metals prices? If
Bill Clinton really wanted to help the poor then he
would stop attempting to depress the price of gold.

The sale of 5 to 10 million ounces of "IMF" gold is a
triviality, an amount traded in one morning in London. The
market could easily absorb this. The fact is that this
week's orchestrated remarks by Jacque Chirac, Bill Clinton and
Robert Rubin have done more to depress the
price of gold than the proposed sale would. However, this
sale would be but the start of an ongoing raid by the IMF on
its member countries� reserves at a time when world
governments are printing money at an unprecedented
rate. The U.S. M3 money supply increased at an annual rate in
excess of 11% in the last six months alone (
source: Grant's Interest Rate Observer ) .

Please notice that Robert Rubin said the timing of the sales
would be spread out so as not to affect the market. I
am more likely to believe that the sale timing would be
coordinated with Goldman Sachs and others who perpetrated this
week's gold raid.

If the U.S. Congress approves this first precedent of gold
sales by the IMF I predict the following results:

( 1 ) It will be a signal to owners of stocks in mining
companies to divest themselves of these shares, putting more
miners in Africa, the Americas and Asia out of work.

( 2 ) The speculation community involved in the gold-carry
trade will be given a green light to recklessly charge
ahead, resulting in more LTCM's in the future.

( 3 ) The price of gold will continue to gradually decline
over time, helping prop up the U.S. stock market bubble a
while longer, benefiting Bill Clinton's poll numbers in
the short term but disastrous to the economy in the long term.

( 4 ) There will be many more IMF gold sales in the future.
All, of course, with a high-minded save-the-waifs
rationale, but in fact nothing but a sham to eliminate our
reserves over time in the interest of political expediency.

I believe it would be enlightening if the following questions
were asked of Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan in
future congressional hearings:

Have the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Treasury lent any of
their gold reserves? How much? To whom?

What did Alan Greenspan mean last summer when he stated in
hearings "the price of gold cannot rise as long as
central banks stand ready to lend gold"? Is this not
illegal price fixing in violation of U.S. antitrust law?

-end-

Gold appears to be on track for $300 in next two weeks or so. Weekly gold closed horizontally away from a steeply falling bollinger indicating bounce coming.
Silver Tongue
(03/20/1999; 05:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 3601)
Thanks Steve
Thanks for posting that article about gold leasing. It is one of the more understandable explanations of the problem I've read. Interesting and irritating all at the same time. One thing is certain Clinton cares about as much for the poor as he does everyone else which is zilch despite his high sounding rhetoric. This makes me long for Y2K; at least we will have a new and hopefull better president. The last 7 years have been like fingernails on a blackboard.
Goldfly
(03/20/1999; 06:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 3602)
Perhaps to set the stage for FOA's arrival.......
Saturday March 20 7:29 AM ET

Wall Street's Ride May Run Into Oil Slick

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is giddy after the Dow Jones industrial average zoomed to the magic 10,000 level for the first time but an oil price explosion could make investors think twice about pushing stocks any higher.

The market is keeping an eagle eye on oil. Prices have shot up some 40 percent to five-month highs after 13 global producers agreed to cut output by two million barrels per day. Their goal is to siphon unwanted oil from the world market.

The producers have so far succeeded in lifting prices from the cheapest levels since 1973. Oil hovers at $15 a barrel, up from a depressed $11 last December.

For the past five years, the stock market has had a near vertical climb, buoyed by low interest rates and even lower inflation, thanks in part to oil prices, which are cheaper than bottled water.

``A jump in oil prices would certainly bring back worries about inflation,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. ``It's clearly a big concern for the stock market.''

Oil prices have worked miracles for the United States, allowing inflation to stay dormant and igniting the greatest bull market ever.

Indeed, the U.S. economy and Wall Street have been rocking while the rest of the world economies have been roiling in a state of turbulence.

But a sharp rise in energy prices would put the American economy at tremendous risk because it could fuel inflationary pressures, or at least give the perception of rising prices.

The results would be a steady erosion of stock prices once investors grow fearful that nearly everything will cost more.

``For the first time in quite some time, a risk to the ongoing inflationless prosperity of the United States has arisen in the form of rising crude oil prices,'' says Allen Sinai at Primark Decision Economics.

``If sustained, price inflation would be affected, much as price deflation was induced by the declines in crude oil prices and energy costs over the past two years,'' he said.

Joe and Jane Consumers are already feeling the impact of the oil pact that was hammered out just weeks ago by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers to skim off oil from the marketplace.

The price of gasoline has soared more than 5 cents a gallon since the beginning of March. The Department of Energy says car owners should keep their safety belts on, bracing for more shocks at the gas pumps

Energy is a big ticket item for the United States, which consumes one-quarter of the world's oil. A leap in oil prices would be particularly bad news for those gas-guzzling, yuppie assault vehicles, or SUVs, which have been selling at a faster pace than cars.

For the countries dependent on oil sales, it's been a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

The world is awash in oil and desperate producers have resorted to selling more oil to make up for falling prices. The slide in oil has been a nightmare for Mexico, which has rejigged its budget three times to reflect the freefall in oil revenues.

Meanwhile, OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which relies on oil for three-quarters of its revenues, has lost billions of dollars. For every dollar drop in the price of a barrel of oil, the Saudis lose $2.5 billion a year.

``Oil is a scary commodity because it is the most widely used commodity by a long shot,'' Johnson said. ``It goes into almost all products that are made and, therefore, oil sets the cost structure of nearly every company.''

He said an upward push on the companies' production cost could do a lot of damage to their earnings.

``Right now, most companies are making money and recovering their costs, but a jump in oil would come at a time when they are starting to emerge from an earnings problem,'' Johnson said. ''It would be very bad news for earnings as well bad news for stock prices.''

But the companies that are caught in a cost squeeze would struggle to raise prices and pass on their higher operating expenses in today's very competitive global economy.

Oil market shocks have never been good for stocks. The 1973 Arab oil embargo and 1979/80 Iranian revolution both stunned the market.

Johnson said that upward pressure on wholesale prices could also touch off an interest-rate response from the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve, which would rattle the stock market.

``There is a reasonably strong chance that it could invite the Federal Reserve to take back one of the reductions in interest rates that it made last year,'' he said.

And as the Wall Street saying goes: Bull markets don't die of old age. They are slaughtered by Fed rate hikes.

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 27.20 at 9,903.55 after spiking briefly through the 10,000 milestone. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 36.96 at 2,421.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 4.70 at 1,299.29. http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990320/ts/stocks_32.html
FOA
(03/20/1999; 07:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3603)
GOLD: YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROW!
Hello!

In a very broad view, the governments have never stopped trading gold. For many years it has been treated just like any other world currency. Why? Because it is one! Yes, just like the Yen, Dollar, Mark, etc., Gold the currency is manipulated for it's Ability to affect the "value Judgment"
people place on all paper currencies. Jump back to: FOA (3/14/99; 11:17:14MDT - Msg ID:3351), with this line of thinking we can see that digital currencies are truly a State of Mind!
And, among Central Bankers, (BIS in particular) gold is the key in this world game of money chess. Forget all the visual physical sales and leasing of gold as a negative for the market. This metal is brought and sold no different than the foreign currencies the CBs hold. Investors keep
complaining about the "War on Gold" and the "Manipulation of Gold", yet these very actions Prove that gold has an important currency/reserve function!
So why are investors so unhappy and applying lawsuits? Because they are on the wrong Long side of the Gold market. The ones that have lost the most have applied the wrong value judgment to gold. They have invested in Gold the Commodity not Gold the currency! If there has been any
manipulation of the public mind set, it was here. Somewhere, in the last twenty years, people were sold on the idea that, unlike paper money that cannot be mined from the ground, gold can and everyone should play it like a commodity! Buy shares, futures, options and the like. Yet, all the
while pushing the money value of gold as the reason to justify it as a commodity trade! However, somewhere in the sales pitch, no one mentioned that this world currency had an important part to play in stabilizing dying paper currencies like the dollar!
You see, contrary to what some Western investors think, a large contingent of world reserve currency holders wanted to see the dollar made strong in gold. These people reap the real benefits of buying More Gold with less dollars! They even secure long term commitments (using proven reserves not current cash flow) to take delivery of far future physical gold while the price is low in dollar terms. It is in no small way that this function has improved, not only the demand for dollar based trade settlement worldwide, but the concept that it has gold value. Sure the process is
unsustainable if everyone tries to convert, but most trading of digital currencies is for commerce, not conversion. The process of enhancing the value of the dollar in Gold is a short term fix in a much larger scope of change!
I find it curious that some world investors are on the correct long side of gold investing while so many others are on the wrong side and losing money?? Perhaps it is after all, our concept of money is just the value judgment of others. One day oil is 10 a barrel $US and gold is 300 $US,
the next day oil is 50 and gold is 3000! Yet the only thing that has changed is the Value Of Gold As A Currency and the Dollar State Of Mind.

I will build on this throughout the day and discuss with anyone interested. Turbohawg, let's talk about this oil supply and demand? I sent your post to Another. I think he will write something for you around 6:00PM Atlantic Time (I think) FOA
FOA
(03/20/1999; 07:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3604)
Return?
I should return in appx. one hour. thanks
bmacd
(03/20/1999; 08:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3605)
onlychild
You're right, very hard to tell gender!! For the record...jokes are jokes, please never hold back on my account.
myego33
(03/20/1999; 09:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 3606)
coin money
Where does it say "coin money and regulate the value thereof" BTW one post alluded to selling point for gold after it increased in value. ??????
Goldfly
(03/20/1999; 09:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 3607)
Silver Tongue- Long for Y2K? That's what you say now.......

Yesterday
We had a party and we sang away
Now I envy those who squirreled away
Oh, I believe in Y2K

Suddenly,
There are no banks, or water, or TV
And they've declared a state emergency
Oh, Y2K is cramping me

Now the power grid's down, for how long, I couldn't say
Guess they told us wrong, now I long for yesterday......

Yesterday
Lies and obfuscation were the way
Now the Devil is the one to pay
Oh, I believe in Y2K

GF
myego33
(03/20/1999; 09:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 3608)
Strategic Reserve
US bought how much oil for the Strategic
reserve at how many $ per barrel? Talk about manipulation. After all why would anyone want to give up life to serve in government folly? Could it be that there is a return somehow!!
Goldfly
(03/20/1999; 09:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 3609)
For Another
Another,

Perhaps you could give us some insight on oil producers and the Y2K issue. Is it considered to be a problem? Are preperations being made? Do you expect any impact to production and distribution?

I suppose this could be relevant to the worldwide supply/demand issue.

Also, it was recently posted here that a major oil company has declared that it won't be completely functional come Y2K. Is this a concern to you?

GF
PH in LA
(03/20/1999; 09:52:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3610)
Call to Arms: May the discussion begin!
FOA:

Your opening remarks (Msg.#3603) are, as usual, well-expressed and thought-provoking. But the insight that it is gold that ultimately gives value to currencies, which in turn are left to serve as a useful medium of exchange "for trading only" does not completely free us from the need for eternal vigilance over the "value judgement" held by others.

For as we "travel this road we call life" there are many real things wanting besides the limited usefulness offered by the beauty and durability of gold: Real things like food, shelter, yea, even entertainment, amusement and self-expression that make the journey so interesting. Understanding that life's excess production can best be stored in gold still implies that one be constantly aware of the "value judgement of others" to preserve the "final conversion", indeed the "trancendental conversion" (as in "immune to time", a quality that real storage of production must include) from "trading value" to real, necessary, and life-enhancing things.

For this we peer together into the future and ponder the "chess moves in secret games already made" which have "enhanced the value of the dollar in Gold as a short term fix in a much larger scope of change". Your own understanding of the role of the Euro in this "much larger scope of change" is, of course, critical to our vigilance over "the perception of others' value judgements". It is also of utmost importance that we seek insight into the timeframe implied in your understanding.

Why has the Euro been so weak? One might have expected that others (as in the markets) would already be deducing the "secret moves" and re-evaluating the value of the dollar accordingly.

And:

Do you know (or wonder) if there was substance in Aragorn's conjecture that the oil accords, which have been reported as production cuts to take effect on April 1, also include agreements to begin pricing oil directly in Euros? One might expect to see such a monumental change in policy begin modestly, without great fanfare. Are the oil producers ready to put their hand on this mighty "chess piece"?

Many here look forward to your discussion with great intensity and interest.
FOA
(03/20/1999; 10:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3611)
REPLY?
PH in LA: I am working on a reply.

Goldfly: I am sure he will discuss this.

thanks
AEL
(03/20/1999; 10:06:49 MDT - Msg ID: 3612)
coming clean...
A most interesting suggestion from Merrill Jenkins:

http://members.aol.com/FTUN/SOLUTION.html

SOLUTION TO CRISIS

Specifically, I propose we do not permit our nation to be sacrificed on this "Treadmill to Financial
Oblivion", but that we rescue it now by accepting the fact of bankruptcy. Consider the Fed. "Notes"
held by their holders as valid claims upon the remaining wealth in the hands of the Fed."Note"
issuers. Audit that remaining wealth and auction it off bank by bank, holding company by holding
company, allowing the holders of Fed. "Notes" to bid freely. Those who will accept less as
'SETTLEMENT OF CLAIM' will bid highest. Those who wish greater 'SETTLEMENT OF
CLAIM' will bid lowest. This procedure would guarantee, to all holders, a greater return than if all
Fed."Notes" were allowed to become worthless. This procedure would be more equitable than a
deflationary exchange that would rob all Fed."Note" holders and allow the 'BANKRUPT' to retain
title to all the loot gained by their issuance.

Immediately upon a successful bid all Fed. "Notes" or demand de posits represented by check
would be destroyed until the books were clear.

This proposed 'REVERSAL' of the Legal Tender Acts would guarantee the most honorable and
most equitable bankruptcy proceeding under the conditions that exist. Bank presidents, as well as all
employee holders of the monetized debt currency would be permitted to bid at the auctions. Only
that wealth, STILL REMAINING, that was acquired by the creation and initial issuance of the
monetized debt currency would be forfeit by the bankrupt.

That wealth which is NOT REMAINING has been lost forever and can not be retrieved. No
purpose would be served by retribution. All the irretrievable wealth lost to the non-bank public
should be considered, by them, as their cost of education. Never again should the non-bank public
allow themselves to become unaware of their responsibility to be constantly alert.

It should be realized that it took many generations (life-times) to develope and 'perfect' this HOAX.
The exact purpose or intention of it's founding bankers has been gradually obscured over time and is
lost to us today. Whether it was altruistic or personal greed we cannot punish the ORIGINAL
instigators, and it would be impossible to prove EVIL INTENT on the part of the present day
perpetrators of the HOAX. Modern bankers are themselves victims of the NOAX as well. The
entire world's population is to some degree a victim of this "money" HOAX. The implementation has
been so gradual and subtle that very few will accept the existence of the HOAX even now. The
bankers actually involved in the HOAX are not aware of the true significance of what they are doing.

"I doubt that monetization of debt has been a conscious act(were they unconcious?) on the part of
Government or on the part of the Federal Reserve System." DARRYL R. FRANCIS Former
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

BY-MERRILL JENKINS,SR. (from "EVERYTHING I HAVE WAS THEIR$")

RETURN TO Money+Fiat Page
USAGOLD
(03/20/1999; 11:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 3613)
Notes & Quotes from the World Gold Council


IMF Gold: Boon or Not?
Business Day, South Africa � March 18, 1999

President Clinton has suggested that the IMF's gold be sold to write off poor countries' debts,
and French president Jacques Chirac has apparently endorsed the idea. But the gold market's
reaction - a fall of $9/oz - shows just how risky such a move might be. If the price drops this
far on loose talk, where might it fall with actual sales?
�����Clinton and, to a lesser extent, Chirac have not thought through the consequences.
Arguably this is not the way to help the heavily indebted poor countries.
�����More than half of the 41 countries in receipt of assistance happen to be gold producers.
Gold provides 37% of Ghana's exports, for example, and 36% of Mali's. If IMF sales led to a
drastic decline in the metal's price, the effect would be catastrophic for some and could well
push others over the edge into poverty traps. These countries are not going to be helped out
of their difficulties simply by hand-outs. They also need help in getting their economies into
shape, crucially with bolstering their export performances.
�����As for the practicalities, the IMF may not be able to embark on gold sales easily. The
gold is the IMF's, but selling it needs approval of the fund's governing body, with an 85% Yes
vote from the executive board. Discussion of the issue in the IMF would become public
knowledge with potentially debilitating effects on gold's price.
�����Worse, perhaps, would be the position of the US which controls 17.5% of the IMF
executive vote. Congress, not the Clinton administration, decides on how that vote is
registered. And while a Republican-dominated Congress remains disenchanted with the
Clinton administration, it might find it hard to go along with his grandstanding. In a nutshell,
the US Congress has an effective veto of such an IMF action.
�����There can be no doubt that initiatives are needed to help these countries. But other
options could be less disruptive for those poor economies that depend on gold. The IMF
could, for example, use its creditworthiness to underpin a bond issue that would be earmarked
for debt relief.
�����Clinton has raised hopes without giving much thought to the consequences. He should
stop shooting from the hip and take proper aim at the poor countries' needs.

---------------------------

IMF Gold Sale Could Hurt Poor
Reuters � March 16, 1999

The World Gold Council (WGC) believes a sale of some of the IMF's gold reserves to fund
debt relief for the world's poorest countries could in fact hurt those it was designed to help,
its chairman said. WGC Chairman Don Morley told Reuters the plan, promoted on March 15
by French President Jacques Chirac, was not necessarily the best way to assist heavily
indebted countries. "One of the issues is that quite a few of them are potential gold producers
and if this had some negative impact on the price, it may do more harm to them than good," he
said.
�����Chirac recently told a meeting in Paris that the IMF might sell some of its $30 billion
gold reserves to help fund a debt relief drive for the world's poorest states. Morley said gold
producers clearly had a self-interest and would prefer the gold did not come back on the
market, but he said the WGC believed money for such debt relief could be raised elsewhere to
leave gold as an "asset of last resort". "I don't think the World Gold Council would ever say
gold should never be sold, I think we question whether this is quite the circumstance or
whether there are other ways of solving this problem," he said.
�����Morley, who is finance director of Australian gold producer WMC Ltd., said he
understood the IMF could sell about five million ounces of gold, or 160 tonnes. He said a
decision to sell down would obviously have some impact on the gold price, but the WGC
hoped any sale would be managed carefully. "Consumption of gold is largely fixed, so if you
increase supply it has got to have some impact on price," he said. He said if the disruption
was minimal it should not affect output from Australia or its neighbor, Papua New Guinea. "I
can't say that 160 tonnes by itself is going to cause a mine closure but�I would much prefer
it didn't (come on to the market) because at some stage or other all of this extra selling
pressure does influence producers," he said.
�����Morley said the drop in the gold price following Chirac's statement showed it was read
as a "negative" for gold, although he will be conscious of when they do make their sales that it
would be at a time when the market is better able to absorb the gold as opposed to a period of
weakness," he said. Morley said any decision to sell IMF reserves was still not a fait
accompli, with approval required from member nations. "I think the administration in the U.S.
has indicated some support�(but) I don't think you could assume Congress is in favor of it"
he said. "We have a way to go before any final decision is made".

---------------------------

IMF Says Gold Sales Would Need U.S. Congress Backing
Reuters � March 16, 1999

The International Monetary Fund cannot make any decision on selling gold until its biggest
shareholder, the United States, is authorized by Congress to approve the sale, an IMF
spokesman said on Tuesday. The spokesman said the IMF had not yet made any decision or
set any date to discuss sales from its gold stockpile of 103 million ounces.

------------------------
Australian Analyst Calls Gold Drop Over - Reaction
Reuters � March 16, 1999

A drop in the gold price after French President Jacques Chirac said the IMF might sell some
of its reserves was an over-reaction which was also related to other issues a senior gold
analyst said. Keith Goode of Bell Securities in Sydney said that he expected the price to come
back up to around U.S. $290 an ounce and that even if the IMF did sell down, it would do so
in a managed way. "I think there were a number of issues that caused it to fall as quickly as it
did," he told Reuters.
�����"I think it's a bit of an over-reaction�a case of 'wrong place, wrong time'," he said.
Goode said he saw no impact on Australian gold producers if the IMF did decide to sell down
part of its reserves. "They are not going to just dump 100 tons on the market because if they
dump 100 tons�and kill the gold price, then they kill the euro," he said, noting gold
represented 15 percent of the European Central Bank reserves.

---------------------------

Old Money for a New Era
Grant's Interest Rate Observer � March 12, 1999

We return to gold because the bullion bear market is even more self-satisfied, cocksure and
overreaching than it was when we wrote about it last fall (and also, to venture another
possible motive, because your editor is a die-hard investor in mining shares). It is a unique
bear market. As far as we know, it is the only one in which government agencies provide what
is known in the trade as the borrow. It's the central banks � 80 of them, more or less � that
constitute what amounts to the gold market's stock loan department. They lend the gold that
the short-sellers sell.
�����Sentiment toward the barbarous relic has deteriorated even from the familiar state of
revulsion, to something like a patronizing contempt. Suspense has gone out of gold
speculation, it being widely understood that no significant rally is possible so long as central
banks are lending bullion and producers and hedge funds are selling it. Volatilities recently hit
lows, and the bulls -- the self-respecting ones, at least -- have learned to keep their mouths
shut. As the bull stock market has become institutionalized, so has the bear gold market. At
the risk of appearing inflexible, or worse, dim, we are still bullish.
�����Possibly, you are impartial. If so, the reason to read along is that gold has earned the
benefit of the doubt as a monetary medium. It was money in ancient Byzantium, and it is
money today in India and Indonesia. The demand for physical bullion set a record in the
fourth quarter, according to the World Gold Council. At the very least, the poetry of the
situation is appealing: an asset once coveted now scorned (at least on Wall Street); a
fire-resistant form of money almost entirely displaced by the combustible kind; an asset
bound to appreciate when (as seems to us inevitable) the figurative stock of the world's
central banks is marked down to where it belongs, which, we think, is at a generous discount
to book value. To hazard a guess at the price of the figurative stock of central banks today, we
would say three times book.
_____________________________

Reprinted with the permission. All rights reserved. No further reproduction with the permission of

The World Gold Council
1 rue de la R�tisserie
CH-1204 Geneva 1
Switzerland
USAGOLD
(03/20/1999; 11:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 3614)
Correction:
The bottom of Notes & Quotes is supposed to read:

Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved. No further reproduction without the permission of

The World Gold Council
1 rue de la R�tisserie
CH-1204 Geneva 1
Switzerland

Just a little confusing....Oh well...It's Saturday and I just tried to get the sprinkler system running. It is dry here and very warm........What kind of a summer are we going to have if it stays like this?
FOA
(03/20/1999; 11:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3615)
REPLY TO PHinLA
PHinLA:
Hello! If we look back at my "FOA (3/14/99; 16:17:55MDT - Msg ID:3362)" a broad outline begins to take shape with respect to the Euro. But, when searching for the end result of this world money chess game we have to apply all of the players in the contest. Let me expand:
If we can agree that oil is the most important world commodity then we can conclude that the "reserves of inground oil" constitute the real foundation for all future commerce. The owners of these reserves are very aware that any mispricing of oil (in real terms) can and does lead to
disruptions in the world trade. However, mispricing is not just a function of "the price" of oil but also how oil is priced, as in; What medium of exchange is it denominated? It was understood some time ago that the $US would indeed become "debted out" as digital currencies go. It was the logical conclusion to the world reserve money being removed from the gold exchange standard. If you have read Another, then you understand that the dollar was moved off gold, in 71 as a US strategic play to force the Middle eastern oil up in dollar price. This would allow the marginal reserves occupying friendly US nations to produce without competing against the "low cost" reserves that were soon to dominate world production. Thus giving the Western economic
structure breathing room to continue functioning on an IMF/dollar based settlement system, even while off the gold standard. We arrive at the final result today, with the dollar so expanded that it is failing the "free trade conversion" the world so craves. Entire countries are economically impaired in an effort to maintain the fictional valuations of "US assets"! (again please read FOA #3362)
The strategy to counter this outcome started with the formation of the ECU (European Economic Unit). It was started in the early eighties as a precursor to the now existing EURO. As Another said before, it took at least ten years longer than anyone thought, but it's here. In no small
way has this been responsible for the 18 year (gold bear market, as some would call it) upward revaluation of the dollar by the BIS. It was the longest "stop gap measure" I have ever known to exist! A tremendous success by any standard, to keep the dollar stable for such a time. Many
think it was "good old American know how" that did it. Well, now we will see "who knows how" as the world unwinds all of this dollar debt!
The Euro, in and of itself will never be a true reflection of the social and economic functions in the Pan European Arena. Much the same way as the global use and valuation of the dollar was truly never a reflection of the Real America! A true world reserve digital currency is maintained by usage in trade settlement and Gold Currency Valuations. As it is, this is created through BIS
manipulations of foreign exchange (dirty float) and "official money flows out of all non reserve currencies into gold (CB deals)". You have but to look at most native currency gold price charts to see how the dollar is benefited. The converse of this will show the Euro as the future stable gold pricing mechanism. However, we have never, in modern world affairs, had a world reserve currency of the current dollar scope removed from a supported gold valuation. The chart of the dollar in gold will be incredible for the short time that it is allowed to express the obvious. Then the controls will begin!

To answer your question: "Why has the Euro been so weak? One might have expected that others (as in the markets) would already be deducing the "secret moves" and re-evaluating the value of the dollar accordingly."
PH, please allow that this is not a "New York day trade", but rather a world money transformation that will affect you "down to the shoes on your feet". The current change in the
nature of Arabia should be telling! I'll let Another describe, later. Also, history usually documents that the most earth moving events were obvious, all along, but no one believed them!
And, Yes, I do think that the oil markets are going for the Euro, at least in Pan European trade for now!

I will offer more a little later, thanks for reading FOA
Phantom
(03/20/1999; 11:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3616)
The value of gold relative to fiat currencies (like the US$)
FOA, ANOTHER:
I have the feeling that the price relation between gold and fiat currencies is very important, especially in the current phase of global finacial markets being dominated by the US$ as the "only" reserve currency.
I think it is not enough to say, the obvious manipulation to keep the gold price down, measured in US$, is only of concern for investors who are long on the "wrong side of gold".
This manipulation of keeping the gold price down is politically one of the most important events which we can observe on the finacial markets.
It has actually severla reasons, of which one of them FOA metioned in his last post: to make gold cheaper in terms of US$ so the financial oligarchs can buy more gold for less dollars.
But besides this, I think the most important reason is the obvious rivalry (i.e., "war on gold") between the private international bankers who own the FED and who therefore own the monopoly to create dollars out of thin air on the one side and gold on the other side.
It is in the vital interest of these bankers (- the true rulers of the western world -) to teach other countries that the dollar as a reserve currency is worth to hold and a better idea to hold as currency reserves than gold. They hate gold, because in times of financial uncertainty and volatility at the financial markets the CBs of the world could easily turn away from the dollar and turn to gold.

But in one important point I agree with FOA: for small investors the best advice is to buy physical gold instead of commodity futures. From an educational viewpoint I agree with what he said. But besides this education to emphasize the importance to buy physical gold, we should not forget to analyse the reason for the "war on gold" which is part of the reality which we are priviledged to observe in these extremely exciting times in which we are living.
Gandalf the White
(03/20/1999; 11:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 3617)
FOA --- help
Please FOA, go slow, as the old and feebleminded of the Goldhearts, such as I with the training of an engineer, need to think in complete details. HAVE I understood correctly your statement by inserting the items setforth in [brackets] ? OR have I made it incorrect ? --- You said:
----
"You see, contrary to what some Western investors think, a large contingent of world reserve currency [MIDDLE EAST] holders wanted to see the dollar made strong in gold. These people reap the real benefits of buying More Gold with less dollars! They even secure long term commitments (using proven [OIL] reserves not current cash flow) to take delivery of far future physical gold [FORWARD SELLING OF OIL FOR FUTURE GOLD DELIVERY TO EUROPEAN PARTIES ] while the price is low in dollar terms. It is in no small way that this function has improved, not only the demand for dollar based trade settlement worldwide, but the concept that it has gold value."
----
****Thanks for allowing me to see through non-Western eyes and attempt to understand.
GW <;-)
USAGOLD
(03/20/1999; 11:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3618)
Message for FOA and all.....
I am getting quite a few e-mails with questions and comments on the oil/gold relationship, euro, etc., as well as other questions for Another and FOA.

I will post them as permissions come back to do so.

Those of you who want to ask questions and make comments by e-mail:

First let me say that I very much welcome the questions/comments and I am happy to post them for FOA and Another's consideration.

Second, in the interest of time and effort saved, please send along your permission to post your e-mail at the FORUM. I have no way of knowing whether you just want me to understand your thinking or that you have authored something for public consumption, or something that you want to go directly to Another and/or FOA. I thank you for this accomodation in advance.

As the permissions come back, FOA, I will post these questions and comments. Thank you.
Questions & Comments for Another/FOA by E-Mail
(03/20/1999; 13:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 3619)
GOLD for OIL.....A Brilliant Manipulation!!!!!!!!!
The PRICE of "OIL goes UP" and the PRICE of "GOLD goes DOWN". It so simple,
no wonder we did not see this. We have just viewed the making of History. Gold
was used to "MAXIMIZE" the recent dramatic RISE in OIL PRICES.

Five months ago, if you were an oil producer, it cost about 26 Barrels of
Oil to buy 1 OZ of Gold. Today it costs about 19 Barrels of Oil for 1 OZ of
Gold.

It has been questioned by everybody: who benefits the most by the recent
downward Manipulation of Gold?

It seems rather obvious, it is the oil producers, as they will receive more
Gold than Dollars for their Barrel of Oil if they take payment in Gold
instead of USD or convert USD to GOLD.

A rather brilliant Manipulation [and so very simple] and its rather
interesting that ANOTHER has showed up again right in the middle of "this new
price of GOLD for OIL." And it happemed so quickly, no wonder Heads of State
were talking GOLD down. And don't forget there is one very small middle east
country that is one of the largest GOLD centers/brokers in the world. We will
never see these transactions, OIL dollars to GOLD.

JADE
Questions & Comments for Another/FOA by E-Mail
(03/20/1999; 13:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 3620)
Texas Oil Patch Rumors
There are two rumors floating the Texas oil patch beyond ordinary interest. One is that the old Aramco "set-up" will be re-established in Saudi Arabia with the blessing of Crown Prince Prince Abdullah. This will be to develop new oil only. Mobil-Exxon,Chevron, Texaco, Arco, Phillips and Conoco will participate on the American side. The other is that Russia might join OPEC; contact was made recently through Kuwait according to my source.

Can you enlighten us what the impact of these developments would be on oil and gold? Have you heard anything about these rumors making the circuit down here in the Texas oil patch?

Name witheld by request.
AEL
(03/20/1999; 14:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3621)
Goldfly: your 3607
ROTFLMAO!

thought of several enhancements... how about:

Suddenly,
gold is twice the price I used to pay,
now I need a place to hide away,
Oh I believe, in Y2K
FOA
(03/20/1999; 14:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3622)
REPLY
Phantom,
Hello! I enjoyed the commits in your post (#3616). Your statement, "This manipulation of keeping the gold price down is politically one of the most important events which we can observe on the financial markets." is so very true! I am taken by how many investors completely underestimate the time cycle that the dollar is entering. It is truly old when considered in unbacked paper currency history. Many of the games being played today, in financial markets, would not be
considered if the players really grasped the enormity of the problem.
Your analysis of the international banking community should conclude, that bankers have also played fast and loose in a changing currency exchange environment. Many of the thinkers that dominate the US Federal Reserve may indeed lose the very game they created.
You say; "extremely exciting times in which we are living"! Indeed! FOA
The Stranger
(03/20/1999; 14:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 3623)
Oil/Gold
Most oil exporting nations, including Saudi Arabia, have lately had to struggle just to stay current on their dollar-denominated debt. Where was all this gold when Suharto's Indonesia collapsed? Why did Mexico need a bailout? Why did the Saudi's need to ask Dhubai for a loan last year? More to the point... why did Dhubai turn them down? In Latin America, regimes come and go, and yet no one reveals this vast international conspiracy? Oh, not all exporters are in on it? Then why aren't the outsiders getting a higher dollar price for crude than are the insiders?

Jade- superimpose any multi-year chart of oil and gold, and then say that when one moves up, the other goes down.

Manipulation? Yes. Short sales? Yes. Supersecret conspiracies that would require the co-operation of thousands of people around the world, don't add up, and would most assuredly fail in the end, anyway? No.

Can we get back to reality?
FOA
(03/20/1999; 14:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 3624)
REPLY
Gandalf,
We meet again! In your post ( #3617), I would add to your brackets to read [Middle East and many others]. Perhaps the Central Bank Of China, a BIG TRADER that has had a lot to do with the evolution of the present gold market. I think, after a long absence (year or so) that BIG TRADER is about to reenter the gold market with a concerted effort, now that the Euro question has finally been resolved.
In your bracket, [FORWARD SELLING OF OIL FOR FUTURE GOLD DELIVERY TO EUROPEAN PARTIES ], let's say that one option may be the selling of gold to the ECB for Euros! We shall see! thanks FOA
FOA
(03/20/1999; 14:57:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3625)
REPLY
Jade,
Hello! It is so very simple. Yet people stumble over the concept because most western investors don't value gold as a currency. They play it as a commodity and cannot grasp the importance of holding it as long term money. In reality, if you follow my earlier post that oil is the present value
foundation for this modern industrialized world, one must agree that it is the ultimate currency! In the context of real human things that we can touch and feel, oil is worth perhaps $200 a barrel.
Your present 19 barrels of oil now represent a 3,800 $US dollar value, a value we will return to soon! Thanks for reading FOA
Goibniu
(03/20/1999; 15:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 3626)
Question for FOA/Another

I am interested in the outrage that we see being fomented by writers on the Internet over allegations of the manipulation of the price of gold. I understand that this is a matter of perception, and those who have felt the need of such action may not have the vantage point that you do. Economic obfuscation is an esoteric art and no amount of education will allow one to pierce its veils. One must be allowed into the den to see how the fox lives. In one way those who have reached a point of even being able to see that outrage is appropriate are at least soaring high above the flocks headed to the slaughter.

My question for you is this: How do you view this ground swell movement in the larger scheme of things?

I have spent my life fascinated by gold's role in the collective psyche of humankind. For thousands of years societies far more spiritually advanced than ours worshipped gold for its God-like attributes. It represents something permanent and real, immutable and immortal. Perhaps it is because of the exalted position of gold as the quintessence of good in our collective psyche that we feel such anger at the disparagement its manipulators have subjected it to lately.

It is no coincidence that the ancients chose gold to represent the sun for both have the same universal appeal and significance to all human beings. If someone tried to control the sun for their own economic gain no matter how high the stock markets rose as a result of their machinations, no matter how soothing their reasoning, we would all know in our hearts that this was not right. For this reason, no matter what level of economic understanding we are at, it seems to me that each of us should do our best to make this issue as visible as possible. It is a primordial need. This reckless experiment of the past twenty-seven years has brought us to the collective boiling point.

I have read Another's words and your words carefully and I have deep respect for your economic understanding. You appear to have been allowed into the fox's den and yet appear to see the other side as well and are therefore perhaps best qualified to adjudicate the larger scheme. To me this movement seems natural and right and very important. Do you agree?
FOA
(03/20/1999; 15:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 3627)
USAGOLD--TEXAS OIL?
Texas Oil Patch,
Well, I have been in Houston and I can tell you that Oil Rumors are as numerous as rifles in the back of Pick-up-trucks! Weather they are doing in-fill drilling or opening up new proven reserves, the remake of Aramco underscores one point. The Arabian reserves are still the most important in the world! With Saudi overproduction at 8 mills/day, they were able to virtually shut down all new
potentials. The Caspian basin, as big as it is, was almost written off! The same applies to many other finds, so called "middle east killers". I might add that the offer to develop was also extended to European firms. I bet, that in the future the cost of drilling will be much cheaper in Euros than dollars? We shall see.
The middle eastern reserves, as currently priced in dollars, leaves them unable to service debt and even gives the appearance of going under! In reply I add; Why do we think the price of gold needed to be lowered in dollars, if not to appease this inoperable situation. The finances of this region are but in a transitory state. Reprice oil in Euros and watch the dollar collapse, then reexamine the balance sheet. The value of those massive reserves will overwhelm all debt!
As Euro oil settlement proceeds, watch for all producers, worldwide, to join OPEC! The US congress will no doubt have to pass laws (again) to prevent their native reserves from being sold at Euro rates. The chess game continues! thanks FOA
FOA
(03/20/1999; 15:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3628)
My thinking.
The Stranger,
I have an observation. I covered some of your items (#3623) in my post to Texas OIL. My question is, Who in their right mind would lend gold using high priced production reserves as collateral? Reserves such as Mexico, that can be made immobile with the turn of a desert valve?? Is this a super secret conspiracy? No, just the inner workings of free trade. All we have to do is open the books at the LBMA and see where all the gold commitments are assigned. They trade more gold than exists. Some entities are on the long side and they are not committed to it because it's a commodity used for watches and rings! Keep your eye on this as it unfolds, Mr. Stranger.
We will get back to reality!

Thanks for the Forum commit, FOA
Questions & Comments for Another/FOA by E-Mail
(03/20/1999; 15:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 3629)
When will the price of gold go up? The rumor is June, and that is logical
From reading much on your website, and the gold-eagle forum, here is a
most interesting formulation: The rumor at the gold bullion markets is
that the price of gold will finally be set free in June, 1999. It is
also rumored that the European Central Bankers are responsible for
keeping the price of gold down now. If the goal is to give "the friends
of the euro" time to exchange their US dollars for euro reserves at the
best possible exchange rate, then a six month window of opportunity
would be logical. Keep the price of gold down and the US dollar strong
until the exchanges can be made. Then in June let the price of gold and
the euro begin to rise, and the dollar weaken. Many recent events
support the June rumor--Goldman Sachs IPO in May, and the recent
recovery of oil prices.
FOA
(03/20/1999; 15:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3630)
WAITING?
ALL, I am waiting for Another's items, but nothing yet? I will continue to reply in a short while. Goibniu, in an hour or so. Thanks
bill5577
(03/20/1999; 16:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 3631)
GATA Goes to Washington


The outrage and awareness of the recent obvious
manipulation of the gold market is growing. The
highly regarded "Privateer" in Australia is as
outraged as we are.

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html, is his address.

Here is a portion of what he had to say about the
subject:

"The announcement that the margin requirements on
Gold options would be halved came on May 11. On
Monday, President Chirac of France suggested that
the IMF sell Gold to help the poor. On Tuesday,
President Clinton agreed with him. On Wednesday,
Robert Rubin did too. By the end of the week,
everyone who is anyone, including Mr Camdessus of the
IMF, had chimed in with words to the effect of:
"What a good idea! Why didn't I think of that?"

Yes, I know - Give me a break!

The "threat" to sell IMF Gold is a very old one. It
crops up at fairly regular intervals and has been
doing so for many years now. By itself, this threat
would not have been enough to knock the $US Gold price
down as far as it has fallen this week. But combine
it with the fact that Gold "shorts" have had the price
of their insurance (using options) halved, and it did
the trick.

If you have been following this commentary for any
length of time, and you think that the "Preamble"
above about Gold being "governed" is in any way
fanciful, the events of the past week should, at the
very least, have you re-examine your conclusion.

A very fine thinker named Ayn Rand once made a very
good point which applies perfectly to the shenanigans
in the Gold markets over the past week.

"Don't bother to examine a folly - ask yourself only
what it accomplishes."


If you are of the opinion that Gold doesn't matter,
that it has nothing to do with the financial system,
which can get along far better without it, then the
"folly" has accomplished its purpose. It is obvious
that the global financial "powers that be" are scared
to death of Gold. If you have no idea why they should
be, then the "folly" has accomplished its purpose.

The problem of this particular folly is that the
manipulation of the Gold price keeps bringing Gold
itself to the attention of anyone who wonders why it
is deemed so necessary to trash the price. If you want
something ignored, don't keep bringing attention to
it. The financial "powers that be" would far prefer that
method, but apparently, the situation was such that
they feared they couldn't risk "benign neglect".

The "Captain" of the Privateer is correct and GATA
thinks they have just made a big mistake and we intend
to take it to the financial "powers that be".

Allow me to tell you a bit more about my conversation with
the Staff Director for the Joint Economic Committee
in the U.S. Congress. He told me that the Committee
was at "war" of sorts with the Treasury, headed up
by Robert Rubin, former top dog at Goldman Sachs.
Jim Saxton's website for the Joint Economic Committee is
www.house.gov/jec and explains many of their positions.

They do not like certain ways the IMF is operating and
disagree with a decent amount of the IMF's policies. From a
tactical standpoint they know they can only focus on
certain issues with their "war" with the Treasury. The
IMF gold sale proposal is one that they have chosen to
highlite the errant ways of the IMF. They feel it can
be a lightening rod for them. Your letters to
Congressman Saxton proved that.

They are scheduling a meeting for myself as GATA's
representative for mid April ( after the Easter recess )
with Jim Saxton and some others so that we can present
our views on what is really going on in the gold market.
They have visited http://www.gata.org and are very interested
to know more about us. We have a real opportunity here
to expose the gold manipulation that is occurring right
now to some very powerful people in the United States
Congress. I will do my best to convey what many of you
have put in writing and just to tell them the truth.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
GATA Chairman









Phantom
(03/20/1999; 17:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 3632)
Test
Test
Questions & Comments for Another/FOA by E-Mail
(03/20/1999; 17:36:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3633)
The Possible "Catalyst" to go for Manipulation.
If you look at the EURO In Gold over the last couple of months you see Gold
had run up over 11% in Euros. Could it have been that the oil producers had
threatened to go to the Euro as an alternate for payment for Oil if the US did
not do something about low Oil Prices. It looks like it worked, as you can see
a sharp drop in the Euro Gold price back a couple of weeks ago prior to the
sharp break in the USD price of GOLD. The question is what happens next in this extremely high stakes poker game.


JADE
Aragorn III
(03/20/1999; 17:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 3634)
The Great Escape!
FOA, thank you for your thoughts. It is very clear that much of the world is resource- and labor-rich, and yet drowning in an attempt to service past dollar-denominated debt. And while dollars grow stronger, debt service becomes more difficult for those who must earn dollars to make these repayments.

You have now shown what has been engineered for the coming Great Escape from this debt-trap. The small person would indeed do well to travel along this path made by Giants. At this point these giants do not worry overmuch about debt service, as their thoughts and efforts turn to gold. And as these giants alter their pricing terms to ANYTHING other than dollars (euros, for example!) the value of the dollar will plummet, and dollar prices of real goods will skyrocket, all while the numerical figure of the giants' dollar-denominated debt remains unchanged. The giants may then easily repay the debt in full with only minimal production of real goods or gold!

Aristotle offered a good recent post describing currency bubbles and debt bubbles. As these large debts are remitted, the currency is then striken from the ledgers...it is essentially "destroyed". Depending upon how other nations choose to spend the fruits of their overproduction, the U.S. could be in for two drastically different scenarios. If the nations choose to service their debt, the U.S. is in for MASSIVE currency deflation, and gold will be the only remaining currency at the end of the day. Should these nations choose instead to engage in a massive shopping spree on the shores of the U.S., the U.S. is in for MASSIVE currency inflation, and gold will be the only viable currency at the end of the day. It is interesting that when we walk in the footsteps of Giants, we see perhaps two directions of travel, and yet they both lead to the same doorstep at a house of gold!

It is good to discover the sun is not shining because one finds himself to be in the very shadow of Giants on this trip through life.

got gold?
turbohawg
(03/20/1999; 17:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3635)
FOA
I appreciate the offer of discussion and am looking forward to Another's reply. Due to spending the day travelling (currently in the middle of a 2 week business trip ... stood on the Four Corners the other day), I'm coming in late to all of the inspired posting today ... trying to get my arm's around the many thoughts ... that sometimes takes awhile. Will work on that while taking care of other business and will check in later this evening.
FOA
(03/20/1999; 18:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3636)
REPLY
To: "little guy", from Alaska, USAGOLD(3/16/99; 16:49:03MDT - Msg ID:3461) and Goibniu (#3626)
Hello, both of you! "little guy", Your question is to Another, but it ties in with my reply to Goibniu, so here are both in one.
Gold mining is a business like any other. You mine it as cheap as possible for the express purpose of Selling It for Paper currency. The small miner does it to earn a living and the major miner does it for the shareholders. No one is in the business to mint legal coins, influence foreign
exchange rates or save the financial system. To the miner, gold is a commodity business not a currency business. The risks are obvious and the same as, say an oil company. That being that someone may unload, physical product or future product securities onto the market and drive the price below production. The problem with gold mining is that many, many publicly traded companies bandwagoned on the idea / trend of offering investors mining stock as a substitute for gold currency (physical bullion and coins). This has had the multiyear effect of driving the perceived value of everything from IPOs to seasoned companies, through the roof! That is, with respect to their value based on profits. (see my earlier post today).
The world currencies tumble in value because of manipulation, yet no one is filing lawsuits because of it. So When the gold currency falls against the dollar, every one that brought a gold stock on the perceived notion that it was a substitute for gold wants their money back? If it is manipulation that is unjust, what about all of the millions of people that are buying gold at a huge discount? Did not this "great manipulation" benefit them? So what if the scheme went the other way and gold rose tremendously, thereby forcing the dollar holders (big investor and small
investor alike) to pay a much higher price for physical, and the miners making great gains? Will the lawsuits still be filed? You see, the problem stems from leverage players making a commodity bet using the mines as a vehicle, while hoping the play piggybacks on the currency play in gold! It
didn't happen.
Truly, the sad fact is that most of the major miners are not gold bugs, they are mine bugs with only the intention of raising the PE ratio through a good story that will, in fact eventually leave them out of the game. The coming change in the world financial structure will value gold as such that any in ground reserves will be confiscated through taxes! We will not lose a world reserve currency system, without all the heart ache that implies and still allow the reserves of GOLD the MONEY to go untaxed. Unjust, perhaps. But no more so than closing the gold window in the early seventies.
In this modern day, we cannot go into the gold mining business and declare the dollar will fall because of a lack of GOLD backing, and then expect everyone to just eat their loses on US government issued debt! Be wary of the precedent you create, it may come back at you.

thanks for reading FOA
The Stranger
(03/20/1999; 18:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3637)
FOA
Sir - I fear you have missed my point. You ask, "who would lend gold using high priced production reserves as collateral?" If your elaborate scenario were correct, no one would have to. Those nations not in on the scheme would either garner a higher dollar price for their crude or capture a greater share of world markets. As to the rest, cornering gold is going to be some feat for those already having difficulty meeting their paper obligations. Evidence comes a lot closer to suggesting that these very nations have been liquidating gold to pay their bills.

The above shouldn't dishearten anybody here at the Round Table. These are the temporary circumstances which account for the temporary low gold prices. You see, Japan, Europe and America aren't the only ones with a stake in reinflation. OPEC has a stake in it, too. WE ALL DO!

As to your suggestion that oil be "repriced in Euros", I am sure you realize that it is, every business day.

Sir, I mean you no disrespect. I have just this week read "In the Footsteps of Giants" (Thankyou backlash). It is clear that you and your friend are both possessed of enormous intellect. Eighteen months ago, with Asian economies imploding and oil at $20, your ideas no doubt seemed profound. Today we face new realities, yes?
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 18:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 3638)
Question for FOA
FOA (03/20/99; 11:34:12MDT - Msg ID:3615)"You have but to look at most native currency gold price charts to see how the dollar is benefited. The converse of this will show the Euro as the future stable gold pricing mechanism. However, we have never, in modern world affairs, had a world reserve currency of the current dollar scope removed from a supported gold valuation. The chart of the dollar in gold will be incredible for the short time that it is allowed to express the obvious. Then the controls will begin!"

My question to you, Good Sir--a most welcome addition to the Round Table, is in regard to the final two sentences. Human Behavior being what it is (greed driven, in large part), I'm sure that many would want to sell their gold during this "short time that it is allowed to express the obvious." What I conclude from your statement is that the resulting "controls" will in some part diminish the PEAK exchange rate between gold and the dollar. Many people will no doubt still be trying to by gold even at the peak prices, much as we see them now still buying shares of the Dow Jones 30 Industrial stocks.

Wouldn't it be more politically suitable for the "controls" to lie in wait, and lock-in when the desired price is reached, thereby ensuring no animosity between people who would have otherwise bought at the peak only to see themselves lose "dollar value" at the hands of the new government "controls"? That would REALLY give GATA something to cry about! At any rate, I think people would do well to only sell gold on an as-needed basis like they would with any rainy-day savings.

I will simply maintain my current operating scheme: Working to pay for all monthly needs and expenses, and swapping the leftover dollars for gold. That puts me on a "gold standard" that increases my monthly weight of new gold contribution as the dollar price of gold falls (of which I believe we have seen the last), and conversely, increases the real-world value of my accumulated savings as the dollar price of gold rises. Nice plan, eh? ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
(03/20/1999; 19:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3639)
Aristotle...
I just wanted to say that your statement -- "We have never, in modern world affairs, had a world reserve currency of the current dollar scope removed from a supported gold valuation." -- puts you in good company. Both Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan have made similar statements (for which they will be eternally remembered in gold circles).

This fiat money system is an untried experiment -- an hypothesis to which the world's finance ministers awake each morning and combine a new ingredients with an already potent brew.

I must add....that I love your down-home practicality.

To you and all the good knights of this table round, I pledge this debt of honor: We shall as one find the golden grail of truth.........Onward, my friends!
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 19:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 3640)
To USAGOLD
After clicking the 'Post Message' button, you almost certainly found the reason to declare to the heavens, "Doh!" (ala Homer Simpson).
That brilliant phrasing of a phenomenon I know so well is properly attributed to FOA--the first portion of my post being a repeat of his for reasons of context.

Messrs. Volker and Greenspan, and all others who can be called 'initiated' in matters of money must surely share this awareness to their eternal unease.

This fiat system of currency is truly a grand, unprecedented experiment. It seems to me that the petri dish labelled "U.S. Dollar" is about to be chucked into the incinerator like so many bad seeds. ---Aristotle
Peter Asher
(03/20/1999; 20:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 3641)
FOA, Aristotle, Stranger, Aragorn, Michael!
FOA: Your 'Reply #3636' was a welcome statement. I have had similar thoughts but have been to timid to post what might have been an unpopular viewpoint.

Aristotle: do your really think 'They' would be politically concerned about "ensuring no animosity" or giving a care to what GATA is crying about? I have feared from the git-go that legally GATA will be a paper tiger, although the roar of whistle blowing will have much value to the 'cause'.

Aragon: #3634, well said. One less post for me to write. The big riddle is which of those roads gets taken?

Got rid of your Bonds?

Stranger: "They" are already cornering it, Who do you suppose is buying this discounted gold. If there wasn't a COVERT demand for it there wouldn't be a need for this massive assault on the marketplace. When the cornering is complete "They will then release the shackles that hold the POG 290 bound. After that, only your fortuneteller knows for sure. (Double entendre' intended.)

Michael; In the midst of this mind bending Forum day, the Sovereigns came. We all had a great "Reality check" as everyone clamored to hold them, pouring them from one hand to the other while saying, How much for you best draft horse sir?" or "Will this purchase passage to the New World?"

All: forgive me if I ramble a bit, I had a tooth pulled today!
USAGOLD
(03/20/1999; 20:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 3642)
FOA and Aristotle...
Seems I should think twice before drawing my sword.....oh boy! Sorry, my fellow knights.

Questions & Comments for Another/FOA by E-Mail
(03/20/1999; 20:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 3643)
Question:
This dialog has been great- I have been logging on repeatedly to keep up.
This stuff is mind boggling to me. My question is this- What does the regular
Joe do to protect his modest wealth and possible gain some ground? Invest in
physical gold only? In this coming change will shares in gold mining
companies play a role in the little guys chance to protect or realize gains?

Woodburner
Gandalf the White
(03/20/1999; 20:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3644)
What a day !!! Thanks FOA
PS: Peter A. --- Sure hope it was not a wisdom tooth ! Night all - more Orcs need attention tomorrow. SO early to bed.
<;-)
The Stranger
(03/20/1999; 20:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 3645)
Peter Asher
Thank you for your question, Peter. You ask, "who do you suppose is buying this discounted gold?"

Answer: From the sound of things, you are, Peter. I hope you keep it up. I believe there are millions more of us yet to come.

Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 20:54:55 MDT - Msg ID: 3646)
Hi Peter
You are probably right they 'They' (being the US Govt) won't be overly concerned about the political fallout (animosity) from any effort to save the dollar which would result in a direct and open Govt manipulation that brings the gold/dollar exchange rate down from the expected peak mentioned. They would certainly have much bigger concerns than the squawkings of those who bought higher, prior to the manipulations/"controls."

Saw your mention of Sovereigns. I'm sure they have quite taken your mind off of your missing tooth. Gold in hand has a remarkable ability to help you deal with troubles. Just ask our most errant knight, Dr. Jones (North of 49).

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
ANOTHER
(03/20/1999; 20:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 3647)
REPLY TO: turbohawg (3/18/99; 22:30:26MDT - Msg ID:3564)
Mr. Turbohawg,
I read with interest, this thinking of oil demand! It is, as you say "the outcome of least desire"! Search the world, my friend and find me the result of present economic downturn? Is it not the dollar structure and debt it be built high upon? Oil demand is broken from dollar default, not less requirement of oil for manufacturing need. Future true valuation of all US dollar assets does show the equity lies low from present expressions of value. We see this froth in Dow Jones, yes? It is as the foam upon the ocean after the wind of much churning. Soon to become the calm sea of major loses for investors in this storm! The loss of this value, thru currency settlement change would indeed benefit world and harm only excess in America. Other nations would find much demand for products of local production, if priced in new currency that brings no default.
My friend, the drive to save oil demand does also save world commerce! This move to Euro, it is done for benefit of all and the one world we share! The devaluation of present reserve currency does bring loss of IMF environment and asset impairment for some, however, it finds freedom for
production expansion in the home of many, many more!
"the demand for oil is as the demand of humans for things, define this demand and you will number the need for oil"
Thank You
Another
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 21:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 3648)
another question for FOA
I thought you might be able to offer some additional insight into any hidden agendas behind the IMF gold-sale proposals. They are being publicly trumped up as a means to raise money to help poor nations. Aragorn suggests there is "more than meets the eye" as this proposed sale would, in the end, have no net effect on IMF reserves except to swap gold value for paper value. The new money received by poor nations would be created at the time of new loan, and therefore the "reserve swap" makes no logical sense for this publicly stated purpose. Can you shed any light on this? Or is it all loose talk to try to keep the would-be gold buyers off balance? ---Aristotle
NORTH OF 49
(03/20/1999; 21:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3649)
And the beat (thunder) goes on
Grettings all!

To be sure, I have enjoyed the posts of today, at least those that I was able to receive. Unfortunatly, we are suffering such a beating from iceflow that the satillite dish keeps getting knocked off track,leaving me with several instances of colorful checkerboards on my laptop.

I have to admit though, the depth of todays posts leaves me wondering how things became so complicated after my input at the production level.

Pretty scary here--offshore in the Sea of Okhotsk. Presently have about 15' of ice coming at us at about 5 MPH. The structural engineers assure us that the facility is good for it, but of course, they are issuing those assurances from the mainland. I think I enjoyed dealing with land core analysis a hell of a lot better than this offshore stuff. If Clinton, Rubin, or Greenspan think they have power, they need to come out here and watch chunks of ice the size of an average house being tossed about like mini-marshmallows!! That, my friends, is real power!! The whole facility vibrates constantly and the sound of unending thunder permiates the air. I am getting way too old for this crap!!

Back to topic. I have (and, come-on now, the rest of you have too) been snooping around a couple of the other forums, checking out the various views. I do consider USAGOLD home though. The views are everything from Wolanchuks' "DJIA to the moon!" to North's "man the bomb shelters". It all reminds me of a mentor of several years ago--a geoligist from Texas, with that typical southern laid back approach to everything. In one rather contraversial core program we addressed, he opened the analysis procedure with the statement--"well son, now we sort out the flysh-t from the pepper."

Funny how that seems so appropriate now.

No49
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 21:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 3650)
A hearty welcome to ANOTHER!
You are a most anticipated and welcome guest at this Round Table. It is good to hear your *voice* in these halls again.
My prior questions were directed to FOA, but your appearance gives cause for a redirection. Any thoughts on my gold savings plan as mentioned earlier, or the IMF mentioned just now? Thanks for your time, good Knight! ---Aristotle
ANOTHER
(03/20/1999; 21:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 3651)
rEPLY TO: Goldfly (3/20/99; 9:42:02MDT - Msg ID:3609)
Mr. Goldfly,
In the past, this computer problem did bring "no concern". This day, it is now "the concern" for all! Perhaps, it does bring "the slow day" for "the tired family", a benefit for some, yes? For others, great loss.
"such is the life we live, on this modern road, untraveled and undefined"
Thank You
Another
The Stranger
(03/20/1999; 21:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3652)
ALL
Regardless of the material in question, there is only one true measure of supply and demand, and that is price. It is understandable that investors, long disappointed by the failure of their dreams, might succomb to rationalization. "Gold is down because it is really up" roughly describes the one we are hearing here today.

Before long, I believe we will all be rewarded, not because some convoluted international conspiracy is about to crumble, but because disinflation has run its course. The same disinflation/deflation that has punished so many members of this forum over the years, has now pushed whole nations over the edge. Does anybody doubt that, were commodity prices in general allowed to decline much further, our own nation might eventually follow?

But take heart. When currencies are being inflated (or reinflated), as they are today, higher prices for nearly everything are sure to come. As time goes by, the desire to rationalize will dissolve into self-satisfaction.
Peter Asher
(03/20/1999; 21:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 3653)
Another
The 'Cause' of this or any other economic downturn, is spending borrowed capital on non-producing activity. All subsequent monetarist number crunching is the study and analysis of the result of the initial squandering, and it's exacerbation by profiteering on the relative values of exchange between individuals and nations. I get a glimmer here, in the current IMF attention having gone mainstream, that this recent spate of squandering has not gone unnoticed.

As in all of history, it will be a battle between the good guys and the bad guys.

Keep your gold!
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 22:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 3654)
"Howdy, Stranger!" (That cracks me up every time)
Nothing requires that we must all be in agreement on all things, so don't concern yourself too much with my disagreement with your single thought here as regards conspiracy. Where we differ is that you apparently see much that has been presented as a grand conspiracy that is either about to end or be revealed (as GATA is hoping for).
I don't see it the presentation today as something that implies conspiracy, but rather as something that agrees with your position of market forces...but with maybe a twist or two.

When the dollar was taken off the gold standard in 1971, the oil producers (I mention them specifically because they had such a prominant position as NET EXPORTING nations) quickly discovered over the course of a decade that trying to convert dollars to gold via the open market was much more difficult than through the US Treasury's gold window. A rising gold price brought competing purchasers out of the woodwork.
It was found that through implementation of gold derivitives and futures markets the natural market forces could be used in a self-reinforcing cycle to ever drive down the price of gold. It is much easier to buy gold in a falling market, as people see holding it as a losing proposition. Who do you think has been taking the buy side of the futures postions when it is quite clear these past two decades which direction the price was to be driven by market forces? That's right...the same people that caused the price to rise throughout the seventies. They kept on buying, but switched from gold ready-to-deliver to gold still-in-the-ground. And if bullion banks played a role in smoothing out the irregularities if a reversal was prematurely at hand, so be it. I am much more "gold rich" for it!

It would seem that the euro introduction is the watershed event to bring this downward market-driven trend to an end, and cause it to head in the other direction...at least when priced in dollars.

Aragorn's post earlier today really helped me to see this tail end of the business much more clearly. So you see, Stranger, we are in agreement on the fundamentals, but not in the regard that the term 'conspiracy' need be invoked in regard to these discussions. But thanks for keeping us all honest, and enticing me to share these thoughts. Your friend, ---Aristotle
FOA
(03/20/1999; 22:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3655)
LAST REPLY!
Aristotle (03/20/99; 21:07:40MDT - Msg ID:3648)

Aristotle,
I am at a disadvantage because Another is (I believe) off-line. I will reply to your #3648 and bid good day for several weeks. Upon return, I will make an effort to regularly check in and post on this forum.
The IMF gold sales are only talk. They would sell it in a second if it were theirs to sell. The real problem comes from the fact that the "laundry boys" (international gold dealers and brokers) over did the selling and leasing. For a long time they were doing the work of the CBs, then they just kept at it until completely underwater. It was Another, some long time ago that first said the gold short position was around 13,000 to 14,000 ton. This was when 3,000 was first being discussed. Now I read more estimates in the 13 to 14 range. Don't worry, it will never, ever be covered in
any way except cash settlement. Mostly in Euros? They will most likely receive loans, but it will financially destroy them. Last year, right after the Belgian announcement bringing to light the last of the CB leasing, it was expected that the loss of physical supply would create a rush to settle and drive the gold price back into the mid $300 in the first wave of defaults. It didn't happen! Even
with the birth of the Euro, and the possibility of cash Euro settlement, they didn't cover. It has become so large that the paper just keeps getting shuffled from one entity to another. We will know when it starts, as the Euro will spike first, then gold will begin it's climb.
All of this may have been slowed, waiting for the EU clean up. With the old guard out, the official money will begin to roll in. This year? I think this summer. Either way, it's going to be something to observe. thank you all for this discussion. FOA
Goldfly
(03/20/1999; 22:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 3656)
ANOTHER

Thank you for your reply....

GF
Aristotle
(03/20/1999; 22:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 3657)
Thank you! FOA
Thank you for your time and a very well considered reply. I too must depart, but only for a few hours, not weeks like you. Your seat will be reserved for your return! ---Aristotle
The Stranger
(03/21/1999; 00:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3658)
Aristotle
Thank you for your friendship. I do wonder if I am not making myself about as popular as a man getting up in church to argue the death of God. Even if I could prove my views, what's to be gained? Here at the Round Table, all of us foresee the same result anyway. Mightn't I, in fact, be dismissed as an habitual iconoclast? I hope not.

Anyway, I will attempt to answer your question about who is doing the buying. Having examined the performance of gold lately, I am convinced that Peter Asher is doing most of it. But markets run on momentum, and long running bear markets can take time to turn around. I expect Peter will find himself running with the herd soon enough.

Aristotle, I like you, too.

**********************************************************
North of 49-
Northy, I don't know what you do or whether you can even read me, but you sure have got my imagination going, buddy.

Aristotle
(03/21/1999; 01:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 3659)
"Howdy, Stranger!" (har har har...snicker...)
Don't be so hard on yourself, you are a very welcome addition to the Round Table. If you weren't already a knight, your accolades (which is a tap of the blade in receiving knighthood) surely would have been given upon presentation of your post about the Stock Market not needing to fall for gold to have its day. I've shared that idea, but your presentation was the best I've come across.

You can add my name to Peter's on the list of current gold buyers.

I can help you out a bit with Dr. (Indiana) Jones/North of 49. It looks like he is still North of the 49th parallel, because the Sea of Okhotsk is north of Japan, west of Kamchatka which lies between him (and his offshore drilling post) and the frigid waters of the Bering Sea. Although it sounds like his own waters are plenty chilly. If he took my advice upon departing, he can be found with a gold coin in his pocket...though I doubt he needed my advice for that coin to be there. His past adventures have proven the helping powers in holding gold. And that's about all I know about our most intrepid knight errant.

I hope your day is a good one! ---Aristotle
ET
(03/21/1999; 08:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 3660)
Stranger, Aristotle
Hey you guys - good to see some critical thinking.

Stranger wrote today in part;

"Thank you for your friendship. I do wonder if I am not making myself about as popular as a man
getting up in church to argue the death of God. Even if I could prove my views, what's to be gained?
Here at the Round Table, all of us foresee the same result anyway. Mightn't I, in fact, be dismissed
as an habitual iconoclast? I hope not."

Not through these eyes anyway. I am not in full agreement with anything written here either. Best to keep an open mind.

Stranger wrote yesterday;

"Regardless of the material in question, there is only one true measure of supply and demand, and that
is price. It is understandable that investors, long disappointed by the failure of their dreams, might
succomb to rationalization. "Gold is down because it is really up" roughly describes the one we are
hearing here today."

Yes, to some degree this is always to be avoided. It occurs to me the difference of opinion is not over price but valuation. I tend to view things from the point of view that gold doesn't change in value as it is a real asset. What is used to measure it's value in today's accounting seems to change all the time. The same could be said for oil.

Stranger wrote;

"Before long, I believe we will all be rewarded, not because some convoluted international conspiracy
is about to crumble, but because disinflation has run its course. The same disinflation/deflation that
has punished so many members of this forum over the years, has now pushed whole nations over the
edge. Does anybody doubt that, were commodity prices in general allowed to decline much further,
our own nation might eventually follow?"

The real economy must be regarded separately from the monetary system if any attempt at understanding is to be achieved. There seems to be no doubt that the world's debt has reached unsustainable levels and must be reconciled one way or another. We've heard some opinions on how this might transpire but to this point is only opinion. The effects of this reconciliation will be felt in the real economy to some degree affecting the supply and demand you mention. The price will be affected by both supply and demand features but also by overall monetary valuation. I don't see any of this as a conspiracy but simply the evolution of a debt-money system at the end of its road.

Stranger wrote;

"But take heart. When currencies are being inflated (or reinflated), as they are today, higher prices for
nearly everything are sure to come. As time goes by, the desire to rationalize will dissolve into
self-satisfaction."

Yes, the result will be the same. I am not in agreement with some views regarding the constancy of oil demand under any circumstances. Long term yes, but short term no. A reconciliation of debt will have detrimental effects on oil demand for whatever period it takes for this to be completed. We could very possibly see a huge increase in the price of oil in dollars bringing about a huge decrease in demand thus limiting the overall price change in dollars. A sudden loss of perceived wealth worldwide will also do nothing for oil demand. Well, I'll keep my eyes open and watch what happens. We may all be surprised how this works its way out. Thanks for your thoughts.

ET




USAGOLD
(03/21/1999; 08:49:50 MDT - Msg ID: 3661)
Farewell for now...
I would like to thank Another and FOA for gracing this table with their presence yesterday. It was an interesting day to say the least.

A thought in passing:

"There are very few human beings who receive the truth, complete and staggering, by instant illumination. Most of them acquire it fragment by fragment, on a small scale, by successive developments, cellularly, like a laborious mosaic." --- Anais Nin

And that is why we gather here, my friends, in search of this shimmering, golden grail.

I want to thank all for their presence here this weekend. It is you who make this FORUM a magnet for goldmeisters from around the world.
NORTH OF 49
(03/21/1999; 10:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 3662)
Things really not as bad as one's imagination can dictate
Greetings (spelled it right this time) to Aristotle, Stranger and all.

Wee hours in the morning here-17 off of MST. Yes Stranger, I can read you--never miss anyone's post if at all possible. It is hartwarming to know that someone is thinking of you when off in semi-isolation. This is a rare treat to be able to post. It took a couple of weeks to figure out how to do it. Initially, I was having a hard copy of the posts choppered out here for entertainment. 48 hours late was better than not at all. Then this budding (I refer to him as the "hacker") comm man became interested in what I was into, and next thing I know I have two things: One, a live link to USAGOLD, and second --a new goldmiester!!

Aristotle, thankyou for your thoughts. I did carry a piece of gold with me--an interesting story in itself. Sometime during my last tour over here in Jan. I was talking to my wife and she informed me that a 1/10 Harmonic had arrived at the house, compliments of Mr. MK for my contribution to what I assume was a contest that I was unaware I had entered. I have been a bit bashful to ask what it was for fear of looking the fool. I was, in my defense though, quite incommunicado during that time.

I can assure you though, Russian immigration officials had NO difficulty in recoginzing gold when it went through the metal detector upon my arrival. They didn't get real excited about it but were curious why I had it in my possession. I simply explained that it was a gift from some dear friends--accepted.

Stranger, I am but a simple rock hound-- a geologist (and a somewhat dated one at that) I seem to gravitate to the petro field due mostly to the more active nature of it. I do have my heart more into metallurgy, as--well basically there is much more freedom and, lets face it--it's safer!!

Proffessional ethics prevent me from going too much into detail about my assignment, but if you are interested in the location, there is a site on the public domain that gives an interesting description of the project:

www.argonautics.com/Projects/Argo_mol.htm

You may recall an earlier post of mine in which I was critical of the finicial viability of the project. Again, if you're interested, it is a public item:

http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/ArticCircle/seej/russia/fineberg1.htm

Well, my friends, I am sorry I can't offer the indepth econ-analysis that prevails here. I am new to that area of the arena. I read--I think I understand, and next thing I know, a counter theory surfaces that makes just as much good sense to me. It will come.

Adios all

No49
PS: Aristotle:--as always, your perception prevails, my handle does refer to the 49th.
PH in LA
(03/21/1999; 10:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 3663)
A few thoughts engendered by yesterday's discussion.

It was great to learn that Another, FOA and their unique analysis of the world gold situation are alive, well, and still viable. Trying to understand their thoughts has occupied my thinking since stumbling onto Another's THOUGHTS when he used to post at that other forum. Like Butch and Sundance, I have asked myself "who are those guys, anyway?" Since Another and FOA have stated on many occasions that their thoughts "are for all" and "offered for discussion" it should be clear that I intend them no disrespect by the following:

Another, especially, has been portrayed as an "insider" with supposed specific knowledge about the inner workings of oil production, central banks, gold transactions, etc. At the same time, detractors have claimed that his THOUGHTS are merely based on common knowledge; knowledge available to all: That he offers nothing that is not known from other sources.

Without reaching definitive conclusions on these two points of view, I submit that what Another offers is wisdom. "Truth...acquired fragment by fragment, cellularly, like a laborious mosaic" as Michael so aptly quotes Anais Nin. Understanding of commonly-known facts. As FOA wrote to me yesterday: "history usually documents that the most earth moving events were obvious, all along, but no one believed them!" Indeed, they lacked understanding of the facts that were all around them!

Of noteworthy significance to me was FOA's admission that "after the Belgian announcement bringing to light the last of the CB leasing, it was expected that the loss of physical supply would create a rush to settle and drive the gold price back into the mid $300 in the first wave of defaults". Another's famous prediction at that time was that "a sale by a large entity would send a message...bringing the gold price above $320 by next week." In the same breath, FOA speculates that "all of this (ie defaults, price rises, etc) may have been slowed, waiting for the EU clean up. With the old guard out, the official money will begin to roll in. I think this summer."

Interestingly, the recent resignation of 20 members of the EU Commission, including revelations of corruption in high circles hit most of us like Aragorn's "lightening in the night". Bill Fleckenstein seemed to concur on Friday: "I think quiet must be a moral victory for Europe, given that all 20 of the commissioners of the European Union resigned over reports of waste and fraud. I guess now we know one of the reasons why the euro has been such a dog - some of the key guys behind the scenes may have been corrupt." And obviously, it came as a surprise to Another, also. This is definitely not the reaction of an "insider"! It is clear that Another himself, while "watching this new gold market, together" is in the process of "acquiring truth fragment by fragment, cellularly..."

Certainly, this is as it should be! And yet more indication that Another and his understanding is real. And definitely worth taking note of!

Yes indeed! I do feel privileged to "watch this gold market, together" with them. Thank you FOA and Another! We look forward to your safe and speedy return!
The Stranger
(03/21/1999; 10:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 3664)
Aristotle and ET
Aristotle... I am nearly thunderstruck that you recall a post of mine from so many days ago. In so doing, you honor me.

I am still new enough here not to have fully distinguished who is saying what, though I am making progress. I know, for example, that Gandalf makes me laugh (court jester?), and that M.K. truly has the wisdom of Arthur. You are certainly among the greatest presences in the room, and I strive to absorb your thinking.

Thanks for filling me in on Northy. I myself spent a summer on an offshore rig many years ago. Funny I did not figure it out.

ET... thanks for addressing some of my remarks. Thanks also for your comment about world debt conditions.

I have no doubt that we have entered an era of bleeding heart economic mismanagement. Everybody, it seems, is now too big to fail. In the rush to put out every fire, we interfere with the very process of creative distruction that is the foundation of growth in the world. If we could agree that the help, when given, goes to the innocently impoverished we might abide by it anyway. But it doesn't. Instead, it either goes to the oligarchs, as in the case of Russia, or it reverts to the banks that made the bad loans to begin with. This is a hell of a way to run a railroad. The more ill-advised the loan, the more interest the bank can charge in transactions that are virtually guaranteed by the taxpayer. At first, this process creates overcapacity and deflation. Later, it brings debasement of the currency and, you and I hope, higher precious metals prices.

Forgive me, ET, for trying to get in my two cents worth. I have added nothing to your already keen grasp of these matters, I know. It is just so frustrating. I feel like I see a tsunami coming, but nobody will listen. That expains, I suppose, the fulfillment I get from visiting this forum. Here, everybody says, "yeah, I see that too." Perhaps it is true what they say about misery loving company.

Gandalf the White
(03/21/1999; 10:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 3665)
Interesting-- N49
I had trouble finding it, but my grandson showed me how -- so here it is. I knew you were a "rock pounder" when you told about separating the flystuff from the pepper in the cores. <;-)
----
ARGONAUTICS Marine Engineering
- naval architects - marine surveyors -
- heavy-lift transportation consultants -

MATING OF THE "MOLIKPAQ"
In March through May of 1998, ARGONAUTICS Marine Engineering was part of a multi-national team of specialists, involved in the mating operation of the
Molikpaq rig onto a purpose built Spacer structure in Okpo, Korea. The Molikpaq, a bottom founded, mobile arctic caisson type rig, has been refurbished by Daewoo Heavy Industries, Ltd. in Okpo, Korea for installation
offshore Sakhalin. Since this new location is in deeper waters, a 16 m high steel structure was designed and built to increase the rig's hull depth. This "Spacer" was built in sections at the Amur Shipbuilding Plant and assembled in
Bolshoi Kamen. The octagonal, donut shaped 15,000 t Spacer measured 110 x 110 m and was outfitted with 3 stability towers. A hydraulic operated valve system was installed for gravity ballasting. The Ballast Control Container was mounted on the center buoyancy tower. Upon completion in Russia, the Spacer was towed to the Daewoo Heavy Industries, Ltd. shipyard for final preparations and testing before the mating operation. On May 23, the Spacer was towed out to the carefully selected mating site and
moored to a spread of pre-installed anchors and winch barges. A work barge, outfitted with generators and compressors (providing the compressed air needed for deballasting) was hooked up to the center tower. The Spacer was slowly submerged by flooding the main ballast tanks while maintaining trim and heel control with the corner tanks.

On May 26, the Molikpaq was towed to the mating site and connected to the anchored winch barges. While monitoring the position relative to the submersed Spacer with underwater cameras, the Molikpaq was slowly winched into position against 3 stoppers. Once in position, the Spacer was deballasted, lifting the 43,000 t Molikpaq out of the water. Final position of the Molikpaq was confirmed to be within 5 mm, well within the 50 mm tolerance. The mated units were unmoored and towed back to the yard for welding of the Molikpaq bottom to the Spacer pedestal tops and completion of the refurbishing. Sail away to Sakhalin
is set for early August, 1998.

The project scope included (but was not limited to):
Attending and working as a member of the mating Task Force Team; Reviewing of all engineering output and procedures; Providing operational input for the procedures; Design of safe and workable ballast/deballast procedures for the Spacer submersion; On-site training of the Daewoo ballast team; Supervision of the actual Spacer ballast and Molikpaq mating operations.
---
THAT IS a huge drilling platform. which window is your room?
NORTH OF 49
(03/21/1999; 11:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 3666)
oops!!
Correction to second URL (seems uppercase does matter!!)

http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/ArcticCircle/SEEJ/Russia/fineberg1.htm
sorry
No49
Peter Asher
(03/21/1999; 13:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 3667)
Power to the People
STRANGER: Re < The more ill-advised the loan, the more interest the bank can charge in transactions that are virtually guaranteed by the taxpayer.> This is an interesting and relevant parallel, to a situation I encountered last year.

A letter appeared in the Oregonian in which a home owner complained that he had received a bid of $20,000.00 for a remodeling project and was up to $50,000.00 out of pocket and it was still uncompleted. He proposed that all Contractors be required to contribute to a fund to reimburse people who suffered his kind of misfortune. (He even had the audacity to say that all contractors should be responsible for the improprieties of their "Peers".)

I had never in my life written to a newspaper, (they'll never print my letter, right?). But I was so 'Hot' I did it anyway. I pointed out that if this was done, everyone could seek out low ball bidders desperate for work, and then get made whole by the fund. I brought up how some builders in dire straights will be willing "to work for cash flow", and I also said these guys were certainly "Not my peers." There was more, but basically I tore this guy apart and as the Oregonian is a bit of a "Feel good" newspaper I figured they'd never print it. Well, four day's later, there was my letter!

My point here is that your statement that I reprinted above is VERY significant! Society these days has embraced a viewpoint of, having some larger group of someone-elses be responsible for misfortunes they have created for themselves. Let me insert here my comment last night to Another. . What I'm seeing is the issue being taken on by GATA is a specimen segment of a larger destructive activity. The repetitive global "bailouts", are not that at all. These loans are analogous to flying out to the life boat and rescuing only the guy holding the gun.

If the rumblings in media and congress intensify sufficiently for Joe Taxpayer to see that it's his Ox- leather wallet that's being gored, maybe the gold issue can be carried along in a greater tidal swell of outrage. Maybe we will be surprised, as I was with my letter. So let's get "Hot" about it!

Peter A.
Ray Patten
Y2K UPDATE

From Jim Lord's "Y2K Reality Watch" newsletter (www.SurviveY2K.com):
"Many don't realize how the electrical system is totally dependent on the telephone system. The three electrical grids (Eastern, Western and Texan) are monitored and controlled by a network of computers connected together by the phone system. No phones--no grid. The reverse is also true, no electricity--no phones. A large-scale failure in either will produce a serious failure in both. Here's a statement from the North-American Electrical Reliability Council (NERC) report: Electrical power systems are highly dependent on microwave, telephone, VHF radio and satellite communications. If the control centers are the 'brains' of the electrical grids, communications systems are the 'nervous system'. One large electric utility may use as many as 40 or 50 telephone companies in several states."

Telecommunications is the Achilles Heel of the electrical grid. Unfortunately, the electrical industry can't even test this critical component. It is no longer technically possible to do so. There isn't enough time. There aren't enough people. The engineers don't have the training. There's not enough equipment. There's no test plan. It simply can't be done. From the NERC report: It will not be practical to perform extensive integrated testing with external voice and data communications service providers. Telephone service providers cannot provide live circuits for end-to-end testing."

"Nobody owns the electrical grid. It is a voluntary technical arrangement that has served us well--until now. Except for pricing, this is a largely unregulated industry.
The federal government does not monitor, regulate or control the grid. Nor does any technical or professional group. The industry itself, in its thousands of entities, performs that task. Again, from the NERC report: Who's in charge of the electric industry's Y2K program? In an industry that has about 3200 organizations in North America, that's a tough question."

"A lengthy CBN interview of Rick Cowles, the foremost Y2K electrical expert, opened my eyes to a strategy that is very likely to be used. (The interview is available at www.cbn.org/y2k/cowles.htm.) From the interview: Every electric company has some really large commercial loads--a steel mill, an oil refinery, a large production facicity, a big office building, on interruptible contracts. In other words, they pay less money for their power because they allow the electric company to cut them off if there isn't enough power to go around or if there's problems. One of the strategies that they're looking at right now is cutting off those interruptible loads. They would do this to keep a
problem in a refinery or something from introducing a fault into the transmission network or taking more power than is available."

"The bottom line is we're going to sail into totally uncharted waters next January. We won't know if things are going to work until we get there."

got Gold? got hand generator?
The Stranger
Peter
"Day after day,
Alone on a hill.
The man with the foolish grin
Is keeping perfectly still.

Nobody listens to him,
They all think that he's just a fool.
And he never gives an answer...

The fool on the hill
Sees the sun going down,
And the eyes in his head
Watch the world spinning round."

My apologies to Paul McCartney for any errors. I draw his lyrics from a faded memory.

Peter, did you know he once dated Mary Asher, Peter's brother?
The Stranger
Error
Make that "sister". (My head is full of stuff like that).
TownCrier
News you can Use...a bonus on a slow Sunday afternoon
HEADLINE: Fears of US protectionism rise with trade deficit--March 21 (Reuters)

Record trade deficits raise protectionist pressures...all this while "Times are good!" Prices
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990321/p.html
------------
HEADLINE: OPEC Expected To OK Production Cuts--(AP)

OPEC meeting Tuesday in Vienna, Austria to keep crude prices climbing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990321/opec_1.html
------------
HEADLINE: Y2K could affect flow of U.S. oil imports--(CNN)

FEMA recommends keeping car gas tank half full...Gee wiz!!
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9903/21/bigpicture.y2k.hln/
------------
HEADLINE: Bull Market Mixes Fact and Fancy--(AP)

The wheels come off the bandwagon.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990321/ticker_tal_1.html
------------
HEADLINE: Warning: Solar Flares May Cause More Havoc Than Y2K--(Reuters)

Just when you thought Y2K was enough to worry about...
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990319/tc/britainy2k_2.html
------------
HEADLINE: Gearing up for the gold rush--(CNN)

Heading into the great unknown.
http://cnn.com/TECH/specials/y2k/stories/y2k.goldrush/
Peter Asher
Stranger
Yes, I flip things around just like that. It's age related, but I like to think of it as cache overload, from all the wisdom we're stashing away. That's why its equally important on the Forum to eliminate false data as well as acquiring truth.

Those lyrics remind me of the Fool Card in the Tarot, where supposedly he alone knows that the cliff crumbling away beneath his next step will solidify by the time he sets his foot down.

It got real quite here this afternoon, I wonder if everybody else got waumped with this God-awful flu going around. I hear they closed the highschool down the forest from us because it was endemic! Anyone else hit by this, try and log in with a 'me to!'

My son-in-law, the conspiracy advocate, say's it the government experimenting with spreading airborne virus. Supposedly a slew of contrails were seen over the Bakersfield sky @ 6000 feet, and it takes 30,000 to make a vapor trail.

I don't subscribe to this kind of theory usually, but this is the worst we've been hit in decades. It started with the little ones last weekend, clobbered the 20 some-things early in the week, and knocked us "grown-ups" out last night. I'd welcome any and all accusations of paranoia on this!!
Peter Asher
Spot on Kitco
Up $1.05 @ 7:09 PM, NY
Aristotle
Things are quiet...toooooo quiet.
Not even to be interrupted by the sound of flu-launched lunches around these parts, Peter.

My task for the day has been assembling paperwork...soon to discover whether the numbers play nicely with each other, or whether tax-day will hold an unwelcome surprise. The next few hours will tell the tale. Wish me luck, fellow knights, for these are the tasks that try men's souls.

Speaking of taxes (and to keep this on topic), I've got a brief thought regarding gold. You will notice when you exchange dollars for gold--no sales tax. You will notice when you hold your gold wealth through the years--no property tax. Compare that to your car or house. Think about what would happen if you failed to pay your property tax. What would happen to your house? Seems that 'ownership' is not everywhere the same. As we've discussed before, you don't own the dollars in your wallet. And you can only make use of your house or car so long as you pay the annual tax- 'rent.' Gold, on the other hand, is yours absolutely, to do with as you please, owned outright--no questions asked. The ultimate portable property, the ultimate liquid wealth.

Gold. Get you some.
With that, I'm off to crunch through 1040's... ---Aristotle

Thanks to all you knights for the very kind words lately. Nice to know my electronic presence doesn't irritate. Maybe it is more a reflection of the company I keep...birds of a feather... Elsewhere I'd surely have problems. Hey, have you ever wondered why they don't have Fiat-Money Forums? Maybe they do. Eeeeeeeeeuw! That thought gives me the heebie-jeevies. Think of THOSE birds...
Peter Asher
Aristotle
When you said " these are the times that try men's souls", you gave me a long awaited opening for the quip, 'Because of too many souls who try men's times'! About sales and property taxes on "you know what", bite your tongue, don't give any lurking Feds. ideas.

P.S. lunch is fine, my master herbalist is pumping me full of Echinecea, cayenne and 'C', It's the Immune tonic with the horse radish I'm resisting taking. Seriously though, this stuff is magic, very little symptoms, just TOTAL wipe-out.
Clint H
Thanks!!
Saying thank you to MK, Another and FOA somehow does not seem to be enough. However it is all I can do at this time. The lead taken by Aragorn lll, Gandalf The White, Steve H, Aristotle, Turbohawg, Jinx44, The Stranger and others has made the last three days priceless in education and understanding.
Thanks so much for sharing so freely your knowledge and understanding of complex world issues. We who desire this education stand in awe.
Understanding of the present can enhance the future. You guys have done me and my family a great service.
Thanks!
David Linkley
Another Another
Posted at Kitco/

Date: Sun Mar 21 1999 19:03
Mike Sheller (Another Another?) ID#348257:

I happen to klnow a friend of a friend who has a business associate who is a passing acquaintance of a friend of Another . This person says that because of security reasons, and his important position in a strategic foreign nation, there is another Another who often appears in place of Another at various state functions and public affairs. This other Another is prepared to give up his life for Another, if the other should require it, or be singled out for an attempt at retribution. From who this retributive danger might come in another matter entirely.
beesting
Peter Asher ---- Aristotle
Peter, hope you don't have what my wife both got.Came back from the South Pacific end of Jan.not feeling to well,but able to half way function.It got worse,and lasted about 4 weeks,did a little bit of normal yard clean up,BAM,flat in bed for a day & half.Ten more days to recoop from that.Back to normal now,but wife missed 2 months work.

Aristotle,About 3 years ago I checked with an IRS agent to see if I was legal,and I was.We Started a small Gold coin purchase plan with the intention of reselling at a profit when Gold went up.Obtained the necessary business licenses for a small business,and bought coins. How was I to know Gold was going to go down'still waiting for customers to meet my price.ALL LEGAL!! Once you sell you are supposed to declare it on your tax forms(profit or loss)also,when you start the business your not supposed to hoard.I'd never dream of doing that.
For all of you IRS agents, my wife keeps a 44 magnum under her pillow for protection,bullet impact will penetrate an engine block.Got Gold?...............beesting

beesting
Correction
First sentence of last post should read Wife and I.
SteveH
April gold now $284.50
Just got Netscape 4.51. System hasn't crashed since. About an hour now. Darn bugs.

see FOA (03/20/99; 11:34:12MDT - Msg ID:3615) especially: "...The chart of the dollar in gold
will be incredible for the short time that it is allowed to express the
obvious. Then the controls will begin!"

Interpretation -- gold will rise sky high ($30K per ounce perhaps) then nationalized as national resource, including mines. Trading ramifications. Physical better as mining stocks may rise, slow, then fast but eventually stop trading as they are absorbed. Time span from start to finish unknown. OR, don't hold mining shares too long or let greed get in way.

Any other thoughts?

Words definitly connote an insider or knowledgeable position.
ET
Stranger

Hey Stranger - it is frustrating isn't it? It seems we spend countless hours trying to figure out what is going on when actually most of it is just plain corruption. From top to bottom it is endemic in the system. Not only are the government and banking officials corrupt but they have done one hell of a job corrupting the general populace. People appear to disregard charges of bribery, theft, perjury and even treason and murder. It's starting to look more and more like the Roman empire in it's decadence and apathy. I surely hope when the bubble bursts the people return to their senses but I'm starting to believe a couple of generations have been corrupted so thoroughly as to be beyond redemption. I'm afraid I hold out little hope that a lawsuit or a 'write your congressman' campaign will have any effect upon the situation. In the end, the costs of ignoring this corruption will be born by taxpayers as they always have.

"The trouble about man is twofold. He cannot learn truths that are too complicated; he forgets truths that are too simple". - Rebecca West

I suspect the above applies to our current situation. The people have forgotten the simple truths and will pay the price of their forgetfulness. The big crash is coming buddy. That's the simple truth, wouldn't you say? Thanks for your thoughts as always.

ET
Gentleman at USAGOLD
TEST
TEST
The Stranger
ET, Clint H and Roberto
ET- something BIG is coming. That's for sure.
Clint- thank YOU, my friend, and thanks to everybody for a stimulating weekend.
And thank you, Roberto Benigni for making me laugh and cry at the same time. Yes, Life IS VERY beautiful.
Aristotle
Emerging from the dungeon
Not that anyone cares, but I've completed my annual bookwork. No big surprises. Everything came out about even. So with that onerous task behind me, I ask for the general indulgence of the Round Table as I attempt to decompress in my favorite hall and in the company of friends. Nothing like a light-hearted ramble about Gold to relax the senses. So here goes...where, I have no idea.

Peter's Sovereigns, beesting's "non-hoard" ;-) and Dr. Jones' (Northy) world-traveling philharmonic (that originated from this hall, guys!!) made me think about my own growing pile of splendor. My mix of bullion to Pre-'33s is about 66% bullion, 33% pre-'33s. My bullion coins is a pleasing mix of everything the world has to offer. I have more philharmonikers than anything else, but I'm sorry to say my collection is not nearly as impressive as the pile pictured on USAGOLD's product page. All in good time! My predominant pre-'33 is the French 20 franc gold coin--angels and roosters. With the passage of time I find I get more enjoyment out of the real historic circulation coins (pre-'33s). They have more character than the bullion. Thanks to Michael's good connections, the beautiful 5 peso Argentino has become the most recent new addition to my variety of golden pre-'33s. You would like them Peter...nearly identical in size with the sovereigns. Hey, in regard to Aragorn's point on measuring gold value on the basis of weight alone, did you notice that those sovereigns bear absolutely no face value? I'm sure he likes those coins for that very reason. Am I right, Big Guy?

Speaking of Agrentinos, has anyone heard anything about that old "threat" of Agentina maybe selling its remaining gold? I haven't heard a thing. Maybe the talk of Argentina sales, Swiss sales, and IMF sales are all just talk to keep the buyers at bay. FOA seemed pretty sure that the IMF gold was going nowhere anytime soon. My hunch is that we are seeing the final days of dirt-cheap gold. (I promise never-again to use the words 'dirt' and 'gold' in the same sentence. Yikes! Twice in one paragraph, even! Maybe these parentheses give me diplomatic immunity...?)

My past (unpublished) guess for the high that the DOW would reach before the bear began to bite was 10,170. Did we see the peak on Friday intraday at 10,070 (plus or minus)? Time will tell. Gold was up a buck on Friday, it appears to be up another buck right now in overseas trading. My totally worthless guess (for entertainment purposes only) is that gold will move at LEAST three bucks in by day's end in New York on Monday. Did anyone experience during this weekend that "anxious feeling" I described on Friday? The feeling that you wished you'd bought then rather than wait for the uncertain start to a new week?

Hey Dr. Jones, way out there on the frigid Okhotsk...give my regards to our new goldhearted friend! I'm glad he enjoys our thoughts. Really enjoyed hearing about you having hard copies of the Round Table minutes being delivered to you. You are not forgotten, my friend! I'm glad to hear that we aren't, either! Don't lose that coin! Punch a hole through it and put it on a cord if you have to. Especially because you said it came from this very castle. I have some of the castle's treasure on my keyboard rich now...for inspiration.

OK, I'm feeling better now. A pillow awaits...though one not quite as lumpy as beesting's good spouse apparently uses! Got .44 Magnums? I hope she's even-tempered, beesting!

bmacd...while I can't recall for certain, just in case, I'm sorry for any time past that I may have have said he, him, his, Sir, etc in your regard. Who'd have known?? Thanks for your presence at this Table. And thank you for the recent praise of my post. I hope this particular ramble doesn't undo any favorable impression I may have earned in the past!

This warning comes a bit late: feel free to make liberal use of the scroll button for this post.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
An excellent Freudian slip!
"I have some of the castle's treasure on my keyboard rich now...for inspiration."

Right you are, ol' boy..."right" you are! ---A.

SteveH
April gold again...
$284.80.
SteveH
April gold by TA rights should cross $286.00 today...
perhaps higher...(cross not close, close would be good).
Penny Nichols
COST OF GOLD
Saturday's postings by FOA and ANOTHER and the various dialogues between them and some of our "knights" were very impressive and I feel that we have been exposed to truths that would not have been available to us "non insiders" in any other way. Thank you all for the education and thanks to MK for making it possible!

I feel like I want to buy physical with both hands, but I have one basic question. We tell each other that the price of gold is close to the cost of production and we are presently able to buy gold at a discount, "cheap", etc. Does anyone reading this have any information regarding the true cost of gold after refining? I am about to get very serious. Thank you for any input!!

Penny
Aristotle
Penny--for your thoughts...
The cost involved in refining is part of the cost of production...otherwise you're holding only ore of unknown gold-quality and quantity. Some mines can bring up the ore and refine into gold bricks cheaper than others. A few are making profits even at these prices. It has been estimated that the average cost of production for mines worldwide is in this ballpark price.
Additional expenses in production may be incurred in refining ultra-fine gold--like .99999 fineness instead of .999 or .9999. Stamping into coins adds yet additional expense--something that is factored into the premium you pay above spot value.

So, in the simplest terms in answer to your question, you are right now able to get gold with very little of your expense going as "profits" to miners, refiners, minters, or anyone else in the chain from Earth to your doorstep. You are pretty much getting the good stuff at cost. As are the rest of us!
Hope this helps. ---Aristotle
ET
Water

Here is a story from Jim Lord via North's site. Not exactly what we would all like to hear. I hope it formats correctly.

ET

Story follows;

Date:
1999-03-20 09:59:38
Subject:
Major Water Crisis Looms, Reports Government Conference
Link:
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9912.htm
Comment:
Jim Lord reports on a meeting of U.S. and Canadian officials. The
topic was water.

As many as 30 million Americans will be without water in January.

The economic consequences would be horrendous. If 30 million people
are scrambling to get water, they will not be spending money on
normal items. This would create major disruptions in business
expectations.

I have kept hammering on this: shelter and water are the first problems
we will have to deal with next winter. If you're in the north, shelter;
otherwise, water.

You must get your water problems solved before you deal with any
other aspect of y2k. Take care of water.

This is from Westergaard's site (March 22).

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

More than thirty million people in the United States are likely to be
without water after January 2000. Nearly two thirds of those affected
will be in the big cities.

This bleak assessment was delivered during an American-Canadian
meeting held on February 22, 1999 to discuss "Cross-Border Y2K
Issues." At the meeting it was revealed that ten percent of large urban
water suppliers in the United States are not expected to be Y2K
compliant when the Year 2000 date transition occurs.

The minutes of the joint meeting indicate that John Koskinen, Chair of
the President's Council on Y2K Conversion, "�admitted that water
is�problematic."

A recent U.S. Senate report on Y2K indicates that, "Approximately
seventy-five percent of the American public is served by (such) large
community water systems. (Only)�eighty-nine percent of the
community public water systems serving populations ranging from
100,000 to 1 million people expect to have Y2K compliance work
completed on time."

The water situation for small and medium communities is even more
grim. Nearly one fourth (23%) of the 51,000 such systems are not
expected to achieve Y2K compliance in time according to information
released at the joint American-Canadian conference.

These figures show that over nineteen million metropolitan users and
eleven million rural users would be in jeopardy of not having sufficient
water when the new year begins. Waste treatment, which depends on
the availability of water, would also be at risk.

These are not the only concerns about the nation's water supply. The
availability of electricity and telecommunications are both critical to the
water industry. According to the Senate Y2K Committee, at field
hearings conducted last December,

"With very few exceptions, the ability of the water utilities to supply
fresh, clean drinking water and to effectively treat wastewater is
linked directly to the utilities' ability to obtain a continuous and reliable
source of electric power�While some water and wastewater utilities
can generate their own electricity in the event of a power outage, the
ability to do so for an extended period of time would depend upon the
availability of a steady supply of diesel or other alternative fuel to
power the utilities' independent generators."

Local government ownership and operation of most water supply and
waste treatment facilities is also a serious factor. Recent studies and
congressional hearings indicate that many city and county governments
are significantly behind in Year 2000 preparation work.

The prospect of thirty million people without water is mind numbing.
The combined metropolitan areas of Boston, Dallas, Detroit,
Philadelphia, Seattle and Washington DC have thirty million people.

Can it be imagined for a moment that the Red Cross and FEMA are
capable of managing an event of this overwhelming magnitude? What
incredible resources would have to be marshaled to distribute a gallon
of water per person per day to thirty million people? Where will the
trucks come from? Where will we put the refugees? Into what rivers
and lakes will the raw sewage from thirty million people flow? What
economic devastation will ensue? How many will die?

And how foolish is a three to five day supply?

This issue is unlike the continuing debate over a nationwide electrical
blackout. NERC says this and Gary North says that. In this case, John
Koskinen and Senator Bennett are the alarmists and they have a
simple but horrifying message. One of every ten metropolitan water
companies will not be Y2K compliant.

The only problem is they are whispering "Fire" in a crowded theater.

My Tip for this Week is to store several times as much water as you
think you will need. Indeed, store as much as you can. And keep your
eyes on the water issue as it unfolds. If the government's numbers are
correct, water will end up being the core issue of Y2K. Also, give your
local water and sewage authorities a jingle. I'm sure they'll be glad to
hear from you. . . .
Link:
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9912.htm
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Slow Start; All Eyes on Oil
MARKET UPDATE (3/22/99) Gold got off to a slow start as the potential for IMF sales
for all intents and purposes fell off the radar screen. There was a report that a German
government agency had proposed that IMF gold sales be placed on the agenda at the next G7
meeting but this news failed to undermine market activity in the early going. On Friday,
Bundesbank president Tietmeyer once again voiced the German central bank's opposition to
the sales and this seemed enough to nullify the Schroeder's government's abnormal
preoccupation with the IMF metal.

The markets are now waiting for the big players next move with some thinking it will be to
move gold North in what could turn out to be a delayed reaction to rising oil prices. OPEC
ministers are meeting in Vienna this week to ratify supply limits they are confident will end
the current oil glut. Oil prices have responded by approaching the $15 level from just below
$10. The oil ministers are looking to move oil to the $18 area and keep it there -- a move
which could release inflationary pressures globally. The group led by Saudi Arabia's deep
cuts received a shot in the arm this morning when Russia pledged to cut its production by
100,000 barrels per day.

Other than that gold related news is scant this morning. Have a good day, fellow
goldmeisters.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
TownCrier
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE:........your mission, should you choose to accept it--
You've probably already heard that Henry Kissinger announced at a millennium metting in D.C. that he intended to withdraw all his money from the bank before 2000. You can read more here.

First, you must register at UK's The Sunday Times (free)--
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/registration2f.html

Then, see the Business Life Section of the March 20 issue (Click on Back Issues)
OR---once registered in the Times, you can navigate directly to the article by pasting the link below into your browser's address window...then ENTER!

HEADLINE: Headaches start as the bug bears down on banks--March 20 (The Times)
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/03/20/timbizbli02004.html?2215803

And follow-up story linked at the bottom
HEADLINE: Midnight and it's as bad as it gets--March 20 (The Times)

This seems like a lot to do...but it is worth your trouble. (I couldn't find this sensitive story in American press)
TownCrier
Bridge Gold News
Analysts at UK stockbroker T Hoare and Co. believe the
"foundations are being laid for a recovery in the gold market, purely on a
fundamental basis," and have forecast an average spot gold price of US $320
per ounce for 1999 and $340 in 2000, up from $294.23 in 1998. T Hoare said
it was "looking to this year as a year of recovery and longer-term
consolidation thereafter." By Gavin Maguire, Bridge News, Story .18688

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Articles which prohibit
members from pegging currencies to gold ignore the fact there are sound
economic reasons why some countries would find this advantageous, Dick Ware
of producer-representative body, the World Gold Council's center for public
policy studies, said today. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .16214
[As already reported on USAGOLD's "The Gilded Opinion"]

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Penny Nichols
ARISTOTLE YOUR MSG ID #3689
Aristotle:
Thank you so much for your input about the cost of gold! You mentioned "ball park price" but did not include one. Did you have one in mind that you intended to list?
Thanks.

Penny
T. Remital
a metal note...
Have you noticed copper today? Often copper will lead
gold and silver!!!!
Diewarzu
Price of Production...
Penny,

About 6 months ago I read in the Wall Street Journal that the WORLDWIDE average production cost for gold was around $317.00/oz. I don't know if that info is still current. I have seen someone else post recently something to the effect of $294-$296/oz. Hope this info helps.
Aristotle
Penny--sorry that my message was cryptic.
When I said "average cost of production for mines worldwide is in this ballpark price", I was referring to this current ballpark that the spot price has been in for the past days/weeks/months. That is to say...$285. I'm glad you asked for clarification. No need for mysteries here.

I hope your day is a pleasant one! ---Aristotle
Aristotle
Well, there you have it!
Thanks, Diewarzu!

I guess gold is currently more attractive than I thought. Didn't think that was possible...

Gotta have it, you know. ---Aristotle
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Firmer in Quiet Trading

New York-March 22-FWN--Silver futures led the precious
metals higher today, in generally lackluster trading.
Silver futures firmed on short covering today, sources
said. The ability to hold above the $5.00 area, basis May
futures, encouraged the bulls, contacts said.
A lack of fresh news kept gold rangebound, contacts
said.
"The gold is just steady right now after last week's
sell off," said one analyst. He said the increased
likelihood of IMF gold sales continues to limit buying
interest at present. However, the analyst said countries'
timing and the amount of the sales would be spaced out
enough so that the overall supply of gold would not be
impacted that much.
April gold has solid support at the $282.00 level,
with resistance seen at $285.70.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
Bridge Market Review
NY Precious Metals Review
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 22--April gold shrugged off news from Japan's leading newspaper, Nihon
Keizai Shimbun, that a draft proposal by Germany for the upcoming meeting of the
Group of Seven industrialized nations includes the sale of 5-10 million ounces of International
Monetary Fund gold. (Story .10460)
Another report said the draft proposal prepared for the G7's June summit in
Cologne, Germany said that plan calls for an IMF sale to reduce debts of poor
countries. Gold has come under pressure over the last week as IMF sales have
started to seem more likely.
Apr gold fell to a 6 1/2-month low of $282 last Tuesday when US President
Clinton urged the IMF to sell some of its gold.
However, traders said Apr's climb today to a 5-day high of $285, was
probably an extension of Friday's short-covering rally after last week's big
fall.
Gold was also helped towards the end of the session on some late buying in
crude futures and silver, although the main tranche of the crude rally came
after the 1430 ET close--too late to have a marked effect on gold.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Peter Asher
More questions than answers!
When the market was at Dow 5000, well, X number of dollars would be required to buy the daily volume. Now at Dow 1000, (leave aside for the moment that many stocks have not doubled, and in the other direction that daily volume has increased, this is a very general look at things) Twice as much money must be moving into the market each day as there was a few years ago. If 'the public' has not as a whole, doubled their investment amount, then where is this money coming from?,

And why?
Peter Asher
Correction
That was Dow 10,000, of course. Still a little viral dmentia here.
Aristotle
Here is a start on an answer for you, Peter...
...or else it might help reevaluate the question. I clipped this from Town Crier's post yesterday. It is a good article that shows fairly well that the DOW numbers are as much fiction as they are fantasy. (I meant to say it that way--for those who might think 'fact' was intended.)

I hope this helps a bit. It was an interesting piece to read. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
Yeah, yeah...I know...
here's the link as promised:

HEADLINE: Bull Market Mixes Fact and Fancy--(AP)

The wheels come off the bandwagon.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990321/ticker_tal_1.html
TownCrier
News you can peruse
HEADLINE: OPEC Is Poised to Cut Output, Lift Oil Prices--March 22 (New York Times)

Good account...free registration with NYTimes is necessary though.
http://www.nytimes.com/auth/login?Tag=/&URI=/library/world/global/032299opec-meet.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Y2K Gloom May Bring On the Doom--March 22 (Washington Post)

The real deal...on page A1!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/frompost/march99/panic22.htm
Penny Nichols
Cost of Gold
Aristotle

My reason for trying to determine the cost of gold is that I am contemplating a significant (for me) purchase of gold instead of dilly dallying around, and I was trying to estimate the downside risk. To rephrase my question:- How low could the spot price go before the miner does not want to sell anymore? Do you have any feel for such a figure? Thanks for your patience and any help!

Penny
Aristotle
Good questions, Penny
It is a safe bet to say that many of the miners delivering their gold to market these days are getting paid much more than the current spot price of $285. The reason is that many have hedged their prduction profits on the futures markets by selling forward at a time when the price was much higher. (It can be argued that this practice has directly resulted in (or at least aggravated) the price declines that we are currently benefiting from as gold buyers, but that is another story.) Many mines (that didn't lock in high futures contracts) have already scaled back or ceased production. There are only a very few mines in the world that can mine profitably under $200/ounce. I'd say it is a safe bet that supply and demand will not let gold get significantly cheaper than it is right now. Frankly, I'm surprised (and pleased!) that we've visited the low $280's again.

OK, so if the mines aren't profitable at these levels (280), surely they didn't forward sell at these prices, so how did we get here? The exuberant speculators (hedge funds, mostly) in their youthful arrogance have single-handedly decided gold to be a dead asset, with prices to move in only one direction...further down. So they sell gold futures contracts (that they don't have gold with which to back.) They expect to realize a profit by buying an offsetting contract at a lower price. But the million dollar question is...WHO on EARTH is going to be selling at ever lower prices?? They will have no one to buy from, and will find themselves competing with us current buyers. With all this buying and no selling, supply and demand laws tell you the price has but one direction to go, and it isn't down. And gold is funny this way, but a significantly rising price tend to bring more buyers out of the woodwork...propelling it ever higher. And with Y2K generated interest growing weekly, it is only a matter of time. And if/when OPEC looks to the euro for petroleum settlements..."Katie, bar the door!" ---Aristotle
Clint H
ET post 3681

ET, your post #3681 is right on target about the effects of corruption. A sad situation.
Your statement reminds me of the statement "Don't let your mad get your money." By the time this works it's way thru the court system, the game may be over. The effort and money spent chasing damages may be for naught. Damages, if there are any, may go unpaid.
On the flip side this is a unique time in history. The opportunity we now have did not exist before the last depression because the price of gold was fixed. Once the events of the next few months have played out (did Steve H say $30K per ounce? #3680) this unique combination of circumstances may not exist for another 100 years.
The game is from today on. Lost profits because of past actions are lost.
Y2K is a huge plus in one regard. It may be a trigger that starts the collapse. If so, it brackets a time frame for events that were going to happen in the next 10 years anyway. If one holds gold and can bracket a time frame, is that a plus?
Did someone use the term "dirt cheap?" This combination of events is unique in history, "dirt cheap gold," OPEC, the EURO,the credit bubble and Y2K. Does this hold opportunity?
ET
Peter

Hey Peter - a possible answer to your question.

You wrote;

"When the market was at Dow 5000, well, X number of dollars would be required to buy the daily
volume. Now at Dow 10000, (leave aside for the moment that many stocks have not doubled, and in
the other direction that daily volume has increased, this is a very general look at things) Twice as
much money must be moving into the market each day as there was a few years ago. If 'the public'
has not as a whole, doubled their investment amount, then where is this money coming from?,

And why?"

I'm not sure your supposition that twice as much money is moving in daily. It would seem twice as much money has entered the market since the Dow was at half this level. It would take twice as much money as has entered to this point to double it again. Does this sound correct? This is off the top of my head but seems correct to me.

I'm not sure volume is the measure you are looking for. Stocks can change hands all day long at high rates of volume but this won't necessarily signify more net money in the market. It is also probably a good idea to examine the actual composition of the averages and how they might have changed over the years. There is certainly a tendency to drop the losers and add the winners. I hope this helps.

ET
ET
Clint

Hey Clint - good to hear from you. Aristotle mentioned the dirt cheap prices I think. Yes, all this corruption has allowed those with the desire to buy gold at the marginal cost of production. It ain't gonna get any cheaper than this. Your observation that this time frame is bracketed is right on the money. Are Dec calls still showing the big open interest? Thanks for your thoughts.

ET
Peter Asher
Aristole! (ET I'll be right back)
Just got an "expired item" on that reference. Wanna give us a "book report"
Peter Asher
ET -- Like minds again!
Cruising rural Highway #101 is a good way to get the brain in gear. On the way home I figured out that possibility, namely that people are going in and out of stocks twice as fast as they were a while back Wouldn't it be a hoot if it turned out that the final stage of the great Bull Market, turned out to be all those players selling their stock to each other?

Remember the quip I made a few months ago about "running around in ever decreasing circles, at an ever increasing rate of speed, until one runs up their own --- and disappears?"
Silver Tongue
Pit
Peter, you last post brings to mind a game my family and I enjoy playing. That is pit. You try to corner a commodity but you don't want to get stuck with the bear or the bull. This market may turn out to be just like the game. If you are trading and waiting for the other fellow to blink, better watch out when the cards are shown that you don't end up with the bear.
Aristotle
Give it another try
Peter, I tested the link and it worked just now. It really is a nice little piece of work...give it another try.

ET touched on the importantant element of DOW 10,000--the formula can (and has) change on a "whim." It could easily be much higher or much lower based on the formula modifications.

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990321/ticker_tal_1.html
ET
Silver

Bloomberg is showing silver up 33 cents to 5.445 on the overnight quotes. Gold unchanged. Bloomberg is notorious for faulty quotes. Can anyone verify this?

ET
The Stranger
ET
Kitco is showing $5.09
Ray Patten
CPT and the Gold futures:

Let me first explain why my opinion of this subject may be worth considering. My full time commodity futures trading career lasted from 1967 to 1989. My work since then is less taxing on my nervous system than being on the exchange floor. I still follow and trade the futures, but less intensely.

It has been said that our government established a "Crash Prevention Team" sometime after the 1987 crash. The purpose was obvious...prevent the market from making another 'mistake' like October, 1987. There are only 2 markets where I can see any evidence that they trade. One is the S&P futures. They are the people that brought you the big rallies in the last half hour of trading on Fridaays in the fall of 1998. They were successful and made many $ for some government department.

The only other market that I can see that they trade is the Gold futures. It was pointed out to me in the early '90's that something funny was going on, so I began recording the weekly Committment of Traders reports in December of 1993. (Faxed anywhere on request.) Over all these years, it turns out that the commercials were selling any and all contracts that the commodity and hedge funds wanted to buy...and visa-versa. This doesn't fit the pattern of most commercial trades. For instance, in silver the commercials are almost always short and the funds are long. The Gold commercials were are always fading the funds. Since most funds use moving average systems to trade, the government just stands there and sells it to them. They know their own power. And they have made a lot of money in the process. However, in 1997, they probably lost money even though they were heavily short at the top. They were long most of the way down. This fact convinces me that their goal is stability and not price determination.

It took me a long time to figure out that "the commercials" might be our government trying to stabilize the price of Gold. But the minds of central bankers work much faster than mine. They realized that if the price of Gold was going to be stabilized forever, they could lease it out at 1% and make some lunch money. Every time the lease rates went up, they beat it down with more leasing. The totals being leased now are said to be many years production. Fast minds are not always accurate.

This last rally is a good example of bureaucrats at work. They let the funds cover about 60,000 shorts without going over the magic 297 price. But they had to call in their big guns to talk to the media about IMF Gold sales. They must be getting worried.

What are the implications of this? First, it is going to be very hard to rally Gold very much. If the market rallies a bit and the funds decide to buy 75,000 contracts, the market probably won't go over about 310. Second, there seems little possibility of seeing the 250 area. The only sellers are the funds and they have been taken care of. The eventual Gold rally will hapen because of physical tightness or because China or Japan decide to buy. The market should be easy to buy up to about 400. After that the government might decide to cover its shorts too.

I want to emphasize that I have no direct knowledge of the Crash Prevention Team. My opinions are deduced from behaviour over many years. When they drag me into court for disclosing their little secret, I will show the judge my 6 years of Committment of Traders reports.

To get the Committment of Traders report for Gold, go to: www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmsf.htm. It comes out every other Friday afternoon.
Peter Asher
Aristotle
Thanks, it worked that time. I guess it all comes out to the most valid market forecast ever made,"If it doesn't go up, it"ll go down!" But, quips aside; buyers want these stocks. Why they want them at these prices is what mystifies us. Yet, history has shown us this phenomena of financial "mob psychology" before. Sooner or later, some hardball statistic such as oil induced re-inflation, will be like the explosion next to the cattle herd. That's gonna be one heck of a stampede, pardner!
The Stranger
Peter Asher and ET
Yes, Peter, I remember the remark about running around in circles and then going up your butt. It was addressed to me and turbohawg and someone else as I recall. I was just getting started here. I thought you were serious, and I had a devil of a time trying to pull it off.

The great paradox I like about the stock market is that nobody has one red cent in it. I guess that is how markets sometimes crash. People think they can just take their money out, as though it were water in a pond.
SteveH
April gold now ...
$284.70. Gold did hit $285 today. Well, one dollar off. "You win some, you lose some." But trend was correct, eh?

Gold still looking strong. TA showing possible two to four more up days before leveling action with $287 to $290 now in site, maybe higher.

Penny. Gold at current level is only 3.9 percent above its 18 year historic low. Most here believe gold will hold $282 near term and be range bound $282 to $297 until some major player aka Buffett or country e.g. Japan begins a buying spree in ernest. Technically gold would break out above $300 but she is being held down hard. This affects technical or analytical outputs but doesn't negate their influence.

The Stranger
Ray
I know you are not omniscient, but your post is so intriguing, I am prompted to ask when we might see $400. Any thoughts.

Impatient in Salt Lake City
SteveH
Reality check, over...
Silver eagle soon up on ebay:

$11.50 plus $3.00 shipping or a whopping $14.50 per coin!!!!

1999 1oz .999 ***SILVER*** Eagle **Y2K??**
Item #80466065

Coins & Stamps:Coins:US:Gold




Currently
$11.50
First bid
$0.01
Quantity
1
# of bids
13 (bid history) (with emails)
Time left
25 mins, 3 secs
Location
Findlay Ohio
Started
03/19/99 20:11:24 PST
(mail this auction to a friend)
Ends
03/22/99 20:11:24 PST
(request a gift alert)

Seller
golden-eye (188)
(view comments in seller's Feedback Profile) (view seller's other auctions) (ask seller a question)

High bid
threestupidcats (5)

Payment
Money Order/Cashiers Checks, Personal Checks
Shipping
Buyer pays fixed shipping charges, Seller ships internationally, See item description for shipping charges


Seller assumes all responsibility for listing this item. You should contact the seller to resolve any questions before bidding.
Currency is U.S. dollars (US$) unless otherwise noted.

Description


This auction is for the All-American Investment. A 1 ounce United States Silver Eagle, minted and backed for
weight and content. With the current political and GLOBAL economic uncertainties, yet alone the UNFIXABLE
Y2K computer problem, Silver has the possibility to be one of the best investment of the year. Silver is on the
move upward. I have these beautiful bullion coins in stock so there is NO delay in shipping. Since people started
to prepare for the Y2K, the availability of these one ounce bullion coins are hard, if not impossible to find at
*reasonable* prices. Don't delay.... bid today.... US insured shipping is 3.00 for one 1.00 for each additional coin
(10.00 max. Check out my GREAT feedback and other auctions..
Peter Asher
Stranger
Thanks, I needed that. nothing like humor to mollify a rotten cold. About your difficulty in that maneuver, you might try George Lucas's Light and Magic Works, they can figure out a way. Or, just keep following the markets and you'll se it in real time eventually.
Richard, Oregon
Aristotle - Gold Purse
Aristotle (3/22/99; 0:17:52MDT - Msg ID:3684) - Thanks for a little peek into your purse of gold. While it's nice to hear how others have established and divided their 'wealth protection', it becomes a very personal thing and something not easily shared. This is probably the best of format to talk since our knight's outfit (what's the correct word for it?) cleverly disguises our true identity.

I have pretty much followed MK's advice for my purse. A little bullion, some pre-33s, and some silver. I, like you, have some Philharmonics I purchased from MK (nice guy don't you think!). I also have some numismatic pre-33 $20s, a choice bit of history I enjoy viewing. Also picked up an ounce of Eagle quarters and a good number of Eagle tenths (which I though I would sell toward the end of the year, just for profit). And of course, my aforementioned silver Morgans. I'm unsure of the percentage breakdown, it's never been 'that' important to me. I've thought of redeeming the Morgans for bullion or some other gold, but have not yet felt 'the price is right'.

I liked your comment "I have some of the castle's treasure on my keyboard right now...for inspiration." Your idea of carrying a piece all the time, not sure what or how (don't want to pass it you know!) but I like the idea. Suggestions?

Timeless treasure, created with the universe! Thanks for sharing. I enjoyed the chat. Richard

PS - Made a difficult decision last week. Cashed in most of our mutual fund for cash. My wife and I had similar feelings at the same time so when I asked for her advice, she already knew what I was talking about. Oh, difficult from the standpoint of the very nice ride this bull market has provided us and to jump off, well it was time. Got the check today, now what should I do with this money? Suggestions?
beesting
RAY PATTEN
Read your post 3 times,but it occurred to me what Government agency could possibly be involved in this.Department of treasury? Than I saw the URL!
www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmsf.htm

Doesn't---DEA---Stand for Drug Inforcement Agency????What is this a sting operation of some kind????

All of us are law abiding knights discussing the future of Gold in a respectable manner.Your welcome to join us in the disscussion if you so wish,but get our computers hooked up to that URL No Thank You!!!!!............beesting
Goldfly
Doing my best Elvis....

Thank ya. Thank ya all for your kind attention....

I'd like to dedicate this one to my friend AEL.
AEL brother.... I love ya man- don't ever change....

Now remember, this goes Gee-A-Tee-A...Thank ya...Thank ya

Yesterday
That was when the shorts could have their way
The price of Gold was held in their sway
Oh, I believe G.A.T.A

Suddenly,
Demand's quadruple what it use to be
But there's no stocks at COMEX you see
Oh, give markets transparency

Now the chips are down, to be wrong, it wouldn't pay
Gold's had for a song, I'll go long G.A.T.A.....

Yesterday
Gold was half the price it is today
And tomorrow's going the same way
Oh, I believe G.A.T.A

GF
Peter Asher
Richard, since you asked,---
First of all, it sounds like you don't have enough gold. You are half way through the wise process of not trying to make a profit on investments that run with the pack. This is a time to think in terms of storage of value sufficient to carry you up to the point you think there will be a viable economy again. When you first became a poster, you asked a similar question, and I suggested you talk with Michael about which form of coin had the least premium over bullion.

Once you've acquired a safety net, you could peruse investments that would do well in Y2K and also in the different word that follows it. What ever happens, people are going to be moving out of the cities in greater and greater numbers. You have mentioned you have a store and sound like your an Oregon 'hobby farmer'. That's a good start. However, I don't know if your in dry or wet country. But if you read yesterdays posts, you know that water may be as good as gold. (By the way, Bull run is allegedly total gravity flow, so I don't think you or I will be threatened by hordes of desiccated masses swarming out of Portland, demanding a drink at gun point. Never-the-less, If your 'invest for profit purse' is of proper size, you might look into building a place out in the coast range for use, sale or rental during or after Y2K.

Where we are, the ground is a giant sponge. Streams every where all winter, and in the dry season any major cleft in the geology creates year round flows as the water keeps draining out of the rock walls. We sold a lot last summer and the buyer made it contingent on locating water. He used a "Witcher. I've always doubted the validity of that 'science, But out here everyone believes in it. When we had to tie in a sub-division down in Seal Rock, the district manager came out with a bent wire and found the buried main where they had expanded the highway over it. Anyhow, when the Water Witcher came out here, he wound up placing little marker flags all over the place. I would still be in doubt, but he taught Robin how to do it. She swears you can rely feel the twig or wire moving into alignment with the underground flows. I sure wish we could create another lot for Y2K, but with 32 acres in 20 acre zoning its impossible in this state, as you probably know. The scarcity of these properties due do our land use laws is why I think 'vertical wet land' is a good Y2K and beyond 'cover crop'.

By the way if you or any other member of the posting team need data on building gravity water systems, relay me an E- mail through Michael. I don't know if there is any written info on this, I learned everything from the multiple systems built here by the original owner. The challenge is that they have to work in flood or trickle.
Peter Asher
Two typos below
Word should be world and rely should be really. I really shouldn't rely on my own proof reading, or the world will know I mistyped the word. OK, OK, I'll go to bed!
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
More moves towards Euro
In today's London Evening Standard:

"Abbey National scored another first this week with an
unprecedented issue of preference shares denominated in
euros. Though British banks have issued this type of
capital in dollars before, in order to match dollar lending,
Abbey's e100 million was the first in Europe's new single
currency."
Aristotle
Richard...hadn't heard from you and was getting concerned.
Thanks for checking in!
Looks like Peter gave you some good advice. My only addition would be to convey to you my own rule of thumb regarding "how much gold is enough?" You will know. You just will. Like eating dinner...you know when you've had enough. You will acheive a certain peace of mind and can put your focus and energies on other things. So, if you find yourself asking whether you have enough gold as a fraction of your savings...you probably don't! Only you will know what is right for you.

Carrying gold...nothing fancy or intriguing here--I simply toss a 1913 20 franc French gold coin in my pocket. It makes a good prop for some converstions, but primarily is something that I enjoy having around...like a charm. It reminds me that I am truly living life on MY terms, not someone else's.

Penny--if you are still around, I have since been told by a reliable friend that $317/oz represents the average cost of gold production worldwide. So thanks again to Diewarzu yesterday for info that was both timely AND accurate. I hope you read Ray Patten's message last night. It reveals more of what I was telling you regarding futures and gold prices.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Rangebound Trading, Middle East Physical Demand
MARKET UPDATE (3/23/99) Gold continued to meander this morning looking for an
excuse to go in one direction or the other. Reuters reports strong Middle East physical
demand -- probably a response to the prospect of sustained higher oil prices. Quite frankly, I
have not heard or seen a report on gold in a long time that pointed to "strong Middle East
demand" -- a phrase we used to see daily in gold reports from gold's halcyon years during
the 1970s.

The dollar is stronger against the euro this morning on selling by one major European bank,
according to FWN, and general weakness in advance of a major EU conclave in Berlin later
this week. The DOW is being led lower (down 139) by weakness in financial and tech
stocks.

Comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa that his country would not
oppose International Monetary Fund gold sales failed to affect today's trading. The
consensus among gold analysts is that the IMF sales will be modest if they occur and will
not have a strong impact on gold's pricing.

In other gold news, traders tried to take gold through the resistance figure of $285,
according to Bridge News this morning, but lack of follow through in Asia kept the price
rangebound. OPEC ministers signed the accord today in Vienna that will cut their oil
production by 2.1 million barrels per day -- a move hailed by many oil analysts as a strong
move toward ending the worldwide oil glut which in turn would be a positive for gold. On
the Y2K front, an interesting report over the weekend published by the London Sunday
Times has the gold market abuzz. It seems that Henry Kissinger made a public statement at a
Millennial Conference in Washington D.C. that he will be removing his money from the
banking system before the year 2000. Simultaneously, Britain was shocked when a top
government official went public with a disclosure that many of Britain's top banks will not
be ready the year 2000 and could cause hardship among Britain's bank depositors.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Barring some type of sunrise, gold is likely to stay
within this range today.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
TownCrier
News to take your mind off the crumbling Wall St.
"The shortest meeting in history. Everyone agreed. Good atmosphere."--Libya's oil minister Abdalla Salem El-Badri

New spirit of cooperation among OPEC (Associated Press)
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990323/opec_5.html
---------------
HEADLINE: Gold firm in early Europe on Middle East demand--March 23 (Reuters)

Good demand for gold kilo bars in Mid-East
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990323/ff.html
----------------
beesting
USAGOLD was right-----Alan Greenspan is a Gold Advocate!
For many months now I have been following the posts of USAGOLD and AragornIII and they have always hinted strongly that Mr.Greenspan believed in the Gold standard,but I didn't know how they arrived at this conclusion.Well I found the reference.I have taken the liberty of posting a few passages.

Gold and Economic Freedom
by Alan Greenspan
In richer,more civilized societies,the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity,usually a metal.More important the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and therefore always in demand and will always be acceptable. The term"luxury goods" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value 'such a good is easily portable;For instance,an ounce of Gold is worth half a ton of pig iron.
Gold is durable,portable homogeneous,divisible,and therefore,has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Thus,under a GOLD standard,a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth.
When Gold is accepted as a medium of exchange by most or all nations,an unhampered free international Gold standard serves to foster a world wide division of labor and the broadest international trade.
The Gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending(the hallmark of the welfare state.)

This and much more can be found at:
http://www.fame.org/research/library/AG-001.frame.htm
Capitalism the Unknown Ideal pages 96--101.Written 1967.

Comments:Mr.Greenspan in 1967 believed strongly in the Gold standard,he is surrounded by people that are anti-Gold.As far as the news releases I saw last week, Mr. Greenspan did NOT endorse IMF Gold sales,and he may be the most powerfull economic force on the planet.
Past Congresses,Senate's,and Presidents,have the American taxpayers so deeply in debt,over 5 trillion dollars,and now because of greed,the America, of the People,by the people,for the people,may be crumbling into oblivion.
Chairman Mao of mainland China said in the 1950's:
The capitalistic form of Government is based on GREED!!!!

Food for thought..................beesting

USAGOLD
Beesting...
Just a short note to add an observation that might advance your thinking along these lines:

I also think that Alan Greenspan views himself as something of a stand-in for the gold standard. For better or worse, I sometimes get the imporession that he attempts to mimic how he believes gold would react given a particular set of micro and macro economic circumstances. Some would call this a particularly malignant form of hubris; others would characterize it as the best the man can do under these historical circumstances. Whatever you believe, a case could be built that consciously or not, Alan Greenspan sees himself as the quixotic and romantic hero of the two great Ayn Rand novels -- the lonely figure who stands with a drawn sword against the forces of ignorance and statism. I have never seen Alan Greenspan as the evil and vile force that some consider him. I wouldn't be suprised that should he retire some day and continue writing and thinking that we would discover that Alan Greenspan would advocate either a gold standard or some form of a currency board. I have nothing to base this on, except a hunch drawn from his consistent public posture with respect to free markets and the value of money. There is a story in investment market circles that Alan Greenspan's views about inflation and money were formed at an early age when his family's wealth was destroyed by the Weimar Republic hyper-inflation. I have never seen this story verified, but it makes a great deal of sense.

I know that this post will get some hackles up especially with the dollar money supply skyrocketing. Keep in mind that I never said that Alan Greenspan was incapable of making a mistake.

I only try to shed a little new light on a very complicated personality. So what say you fellow knights and thinkers:

A malignant form of hubris......... or

The best he can do under these historical circumstances.........or

Something else?
beesting
USAGOLD
Thank You for your insight and the use of this forum to express inner thoughts concerning Gold and economics.Much humble gratitude from this age-ing knight........beesting
Peter Asher
Michael
I'd say he does the best he can under the cicumstances. That includes though, my supposition that the REAL MOUs are invisible. Who does A.G. answer to? Also, I would say he's trying to keep a hundred million 'bigger fools' from destroying themselves, not egging them on.
USAGOLD
Peter...
Funny you should ask about who Alan Greenspan answers to. Watch for an upcoming Gilded Opinion piece that answers that question and more. It is now in preparation. The answer may surprise you and all the knights.

Also, with respect to 100,000,000 "greater fools", that theory is about to be tested. Make no mistake. This move in the DJIA is related to the oil question -- a crack in the DOW's armor. The market anticipates... and if I am reading this correctly, it is now anticipating the twin menaces of price inflation and rising interest rates.

Got parachute?
Aristotle
Take a look
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

Does anyone agree with me that noon today in New York was the final folly by the speculative shorts...the last failed attempt to break gold lower? I tend to think these prices will never be seen again. Don't get me wrong; the price won't go straight up. But there likely WILL NOT be anything cheaper in the offing.

This is a departure from the past two years...gold did not break down when the DJIA did. Ok, well, yes it did when London closed for the day exactly at noon, but it fully recovered for a gain over yesterday's close, even as the DOW slid further.

Any thoughts from you Technical Analysis people?
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Gold steady after fund driven slump
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 23--COMEX Apr gold futures settled little changed, at
$284.70 per ounce, after a choppy session. After making an early climb to a
6-day high of $285.60 per ounce, it then plunged mid-session on heavy fund
sales. Traders said that gold continued to explore its recent range, noting that
it seemed to run out of momentum on both the way up and the way down.
"Gold is locked in a tight range and there is no momentum in either
direction," said Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch.
Traders said that gold may have gained some support from the fall in US
equities and also as the dollar slid from its earlier highs against the yen.
The Dow Jones Industrial average was down 250 points, or 2.5%, at 9641.42
at 1539 ET, while the dollar was at 118.30 yen at after reaching a 5-day high of
118.76 overnight.
One trader suggested that after climbing up from the 6 1/2 month low of
$282 gold dropped to last week, it had "exhausted" itself. "Gold couldn't break
higher and it's exploring its recent range," he said.
Traders noted that gold continues to come under pressure from talk that the
International Monetary Fund will look to sell some of its gold. Finance Minister
Kiichi Miyazawa told Bridge News overnight he is not opposed to proposals
prepared by Germany to allow the IMF to sell up to 10 million ounces of its gold
reserves in order to provide
debt relief to the world's poorest nations. (Story .23890)
Apr gold fell back to the 6 1/2-month low last Tuesday when US President
Clinton urged the IMF to sell some gold.
However, O'Neill pointed out that gold's selloff on the IMF news was
possibly overdone. He said that it was a knee-jerk reaction, given that the IMF
is planning to sell very little of its reserves and these sales will not be
immediate and should be accomplished over a long time period.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Penny Nichols
THANKS (re Cost of gold)
Aristotle, Diewarzu, & Steve H
Thanks to all of you for your input on cost of gold in answer to my question! Where else could I have gotten expert reliable advice like this? One thing for sure--you have convinced me that I can't get hurt too badly buying at this time.
Penny
el St.One
TYPO
MK What type of sunrise should we be looking for?
Sorry; I could not let that typo slide by.



That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Barring some type of sunrise, gold is likely to stay
within this range today.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
The Stranger
USAGOLD
Michael- The more I get to know you, the more impressed I get with your understanding. Yes, absolutely, I agree that stocks (and bonds too, for that matter) are warning of higher inflation. I also agree that A.G. is a good and intelligent man who can be trusted to act in what he considers to be the best interests of hard working Americans. I would not go so far, however , as to imply that recent monetary policy may have been a mistake. With weak exports and weak pricing posing a very real threat, what choice other than rapid money expansion has he had? I cringe just thinking about where gold might be, for example, had he not chosen this course.

Fortunately for farsighted gold investors, he is not likely to reverse direction until recovering commodity prices are a fait accompli. By then, a hell of a gold rally should be unavoidable.

This all seems so simple, and yet hardly anybody on Wall Street seems to understand it.
TownCrier
For anyone waiting for the FWN Closing N.Y. Metals,
See below. They used the Bridge report. Maybe their reporter is sick? Or too busy carting home his gold purchase?
SteveH
A friend sent me this...
What do you all think?

"This is so confusing. Let me see if I have this straight.

One, you have the Federal Reserve orchestrating deals to bail out hedge
funds in order to give member banks who are overexposed in underperforming
derivatives time to recover. This has been widely reported in the news.

Two, you have the Fed colluding to keep the price of gold below $290 in
order to give member banks time to cover their gold short positions. This
is the GATA conspiracy theory.

Three, you have the Fed colluding to suppress the price of oil by making up
the difference between what is paid in $US for a barrel of oil with gold to
Arabian oil producers. This is according to A and FOA, who think that gold
and oil will become the valuation basis for all future world trade rather
than $US, which has become a fiat currency. While the OPEC countries have
been experiencing economic hardship with oil trading at below $13/barrel for
so long, to the point that many have had to go into debt in order to
maintain their respective welfare states. I have read articles in the WSJ
(propaganda?) that talk about the fact that in these oil rich sheikdoms
their citizens do not work, they have to bring in Indians and other
foreigners to do the menial jobs and the high tech jobs. And yet they are
masterminding the ultimate world-wide return to a gold standard.

Meanwhile, back on the continent, the Euro, which took longer to put
together than anyone expected, and which will not be supported by the Brits,
and may or may not be supported by the Germans, but will be supported by the
other socialist countries that can't seem to get over the fact that they
lost their former empires, because they think it may enable them to resolve
their inflation and unemployment and debt problems without having to endure
the pain that a free market imposes. Of course, the Euro will be pegged to
a gold standard.

But, there is not enough gold coming out of the ground to cover all the
leases, the short positions, AND pay the Arab oil states (but not the
Venezuelans or Mexicans or Iraq), not to mention the attempts to build
hoards by the Asians.

And, in my opinion, the fundamental currency of exchange is fast becoming
information. The more you know, the more you are worth. Just look at your
business. All trade is a form of barter. The only thing currency really
does is give the traders, the barterers, a means of calibrating the value of
each component of the trade. It just makes trade easier. If A and FOA are
right, and all the gold in the world ends up in the hands of a few, then how
do those few benefit? They will still have to pay for knowledge, from the
people who repair their limos to the people who operate their missile
guidance systems, to the soldiers that try to protect them from the invading
Allied armies.

This is all too confusing."
Aragorn III
SteveH, I hope to address some of your friend's thoughts this evening.
In the meanwhile, perhaps ET will beat me to it? And then, perhaps you had words for your friend, Steve?
TownCrier
First story sums up the day--
"Everyone seems scared to death"--a Wall St. analyst

Emotionally driven DOW is running on fumes...inflation cited
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990323/9c.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Senate Unhappy With Trade Deficits--March 23 (AP)

Protectionism...coming to pricetags near you.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990323/steel_trad_1.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Russian debt sinks after Primakov cancels US trip--March 23 (Reuters)

Hopes dwindle to get fresh cash from IMF
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990323/5p.html
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye!
Now appearing for your reading pleasure...An update of The World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley's WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY.

Take a trip through the castle...follow the links to "This Week in Gold" via the USAGOLD Home Page.
Farfel
GOLD...the Slow, Steady Shift into the New Gold Paradigm...
I've read various comments from goldbugs who express shock that, given the precarious nature of things in the world, gold is once again NOT reacting.

On the other hand, I am not the least bit surprised. After studying the gold market closely the last few years and going through a goldbug "trial by fire," I now have a PhD in understanding the factors imperative to creating the next gold super-bull. That is why I continue to sit on the sidelines, awaiting the key event that causes societal paradigm shift. That it will happen is certain, but the timing is anybody's guess.

There are a variety of reasons for gold's malaise today and another list of factors needed to create a genuine gold bull:

1) No gold bull until an "impending" Serb war is regarded as a real threat by the average American investor. The ultra-bull market of the Nineties has left Americans with a general feeling of invincibility. Nothing of any negative consequence resulted in America from the various battles in Iraq...why should Serbia be any different? Ask most Americans if they genuinely fear any dire effects from a war in Serbia. The answer is certain to be negative. There is no fear in America today and until fear exists, there will be no flight to gold.

2) No gold bull on the basis of the stock market falling a mere 200 points. In percentage terms, it is inconsequential...once again, most Americans have seen it before and view the drop as a non-event. They are simply waiting for the government to "do its thing again," lower interest rates, buy S & P futures, and save the day as usual. The average investor will continue to yawn until a tremendous 1000 + point drop occurs in a single day WITHOUT any notable retracement immediately thereafter. The psychological effect of such a drop would be notable, particularly if it does not quickly retrace. It would strongly suggest the government either does not intend to intervene to support the market...or the government interventions occuring are ineffective.

3) No gold bull until the bond market falls in equal proportion to the falling stock market. As long as bonds remain reasonably steady, then they will continue to be perceived as the proper flight to safety. Only with severe, simultaneous stock and bond weakness will gold experience a strong bull as it will be the only remaining flight to safety.

4) No gold bull until the US Dollar experiences a sharper decline in order to convince foreign investors that neither US stocks nor US bonds are capable of providing sufficient returns to overcome the US currency risk. Once the Dollar experiences a true abrupt drop, then foreign investors will be inspired to repatriate funds. Since these foreign funds provide a bedrock to the current Amerian bull market, then the sudden cracks will prove disastrous.

5) No gold bull until the various gurus and political leaders who have created the Great Nineties BUBBLE Bull market are discredited. What this means is that analysts such as Abbey Joseph Cohen and Acampora must make short-term predictions that prove to be categorically false...and the investing public must immediately recognize the errors in their predictions. Conversely, notable gold exponents must have their predictions confirmed and validated. The political leaders must take the nation down paths that are so nefarious that a fully employed population will not suffer their devious machinations (a Serbian War? Revival of the Military Draft?). Once the average investor realizes that the once venerated gurus and leaders do NOT have all the answers and solutions, they will race to embrace those things once denounced (such as gold). At the same time, they will discard those things once perceived to be precious (internet stocks).

6) No gold bull until existential events occur on a regular basis. People will no longer feel secure if the linearity of their lives is disrupted (Y2K). When a person flicks on a light switch every day, he expects light. If darkness occurs on a random basis, then insecurity develops.

7) No gold bull until the true reasons behind the politicians concerted, relentless efforts to cap the price of gold are exposed to the public (via GATA, etc.). The public must understand that the gold market is subverted, not for humanitarian reasons such as "African aid," but rather for reasons concerning personal enrichment (saving LTCM's wealthy investors). Once the public recognizes the false basis of the regular anti-gold propaganda fed its way, they will scoop gold up in such quantities as to undermine all gold short speculators' efforts.

8) No gold bull until a strong revolt within the American Establishment occurs, thus provoking major wealthy figures and institutions to buy PM's in quantity and take significant positions against the existent gold shorting speculators' cartel. (This conflict may already be occuring).

Although I could continue this litany, I would suggest the preceding eight points are the major things to consider in light of today's disappointment with gold's performance.

There is a gold bull developing. It involves a significant societal psychological shift and, for that reason, it is occuring at a glacial pace. Patience is required.

Meanwhile, physical purchases at these prices are the key to applying pressure to the gold short cartel. Buy and take possession. That's what I'm doing.



Clint H
Steve H post 3744
EURO's for oil

When a nation establishes a new currency it must be make official. Declaring that the new currency is good for paying all taxes usually does the trick. If it will pay taxes it will exchange for goods so the next person can pay their taxes. A start.

What would truly establish the EURO? What would make it believable?

OPEC still exists.
OPEC is getting stronger.
Russia joins OPEC?
Other oil rich but cash poor nations join OPEC.
OPEC controls most of the worlds oil production.
Oil is the single most important commodity in the world.
OPEC declares that only EURO's will be accepted in exchange for oil.

Would the EURO need any more than this to become the new world currency?
Just a thought.
Gandalf the White
Let us hear it again in different words. The Hobbits understand it !
You have got to LOVE this guy !
----
Gold Mining Outlook
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com.
by Steven Jon KaplanBack Issue List
Updated @ 6:40 p.m. EST, Tuesday, March 23, 1999.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: There is almost always a zone of delay between the early stages of a major stock market decline and the heart of a rally in gold shares. We are currently in that zone.

KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question (from Brett Boal): Why do you predict that the price of gold will rise, if the demand for gold will rise about as fast as the supply?
Answer: Actually, the World Gold Council's numbers show that demand for gold will rise more quickly than the supply, but the difference is likely to be only a few percent per year. In general, over very long periods of time, the supply/demand balance for gold is roughly at equilibrium. Therefore, the price of an ounce of gold tends to remain the same in terms of purchasing power, such as the number of commodity baskets that can be purchased with a single ounce of the yellow metal. The primary reason for my bullishness on gold is connected with the fact that around the world gold is priced in U.S. dollars. The dollar
has been able to remain generally strong against most major currencies over the past decade, though only because of the hyper-inflated U.S. stock market. Strongly overvalued U.S. equities have had the following two key effects, which are closely related: they have created a temporary, artificial demand for U.S. assets (including stocks, real estate, and Treasuries); and they have created a temporary, artificial demand for the U.S. dollar. This stronger dollar has caused inflation to remain low at the same time that valuations of U.S. real estate and corporate market capitalizations are high. The economic boom caused by the hyperinflated equity market has also caused low unemployment and other signs of a boom era. Thus, the U.S. economy looks like a marvel of success rather than the abject failure that it really is, as measured by hard facts like an all-time record corporate and personal debt as a percentage of assets, an all-time record U.S. trade gap (the U.S. is by far the world's largest debtor nation), and a nearly all-time record low savings rate. Once the U.S. stock market accelerates its decline, as it has actually been doing since the Russell
2000 peaked on April 22, 1998 (it is down more than 20% since then), and this downturn becomes clearly evident to investors worldwide (in other words, the Nifty Fifty/Dow join along), the value of all U.S. assets and the dollar will collapse. The lower dollar will trigger increased inflation. Lower corporate assets will make the high ratio of corporate debt to assets even higher (as companies' stock prices fall, their absolute debt load will of course stay constant), thus causing a recession. The recession will pull down the dollar further, which will cause a continued decline in stock and real estate prices, which will pull down the dollar still further, and so on. All of the upside excesses of the past decade will be reversed. The less purchasing power the dollar has, the fewer baskets of commodities can be purchased with any fixed number of dollars, and therefore the higher the price of gold will be, even assuming that there is no increase in demand relative to supply. In real life, of course, the fact that gold will be one of the few truly liquid assets that is
rising in price while everything else is falling apart, will itself create its own demand, thus pushing up the price further. Over many years, of course, the supply for gold will rise to meet this increased demand (and its sharply increased price), but since it takes three to five years for a gold mine to go from initial exploration to full production, the gold rally is likely to last for quite some time. Eventually, the recession will become steep enough that the U.S. will be forced to import less, and the dollar cheap enough that the U.S. will be able to export more, thus improving the trade gap, which will slowly
reverse the entire process. Thus is the nature of the economic cycle.
*****same message (in simple words) AND SJKaplan does not even mention Y2k OR ANOTHER !
<;-)

The Stranger
Steve H
Point One- True

Point Two- False. Greenspan isn't having nightmares about inflation right now. He's having nightmares about deflation. If you don't believe me just watch the money supply. As to the poor hedge funds that need his co-operation in unwinding, we should be so lucky. In case nobody noticed, we are the ones who are on the ropes.

Point Three- False. A and FOA as you call them (or, more probably, him) have been spreading that crap for two years in bahalf of Saddam Hussein. Saddam would just love to lead the entire arab world, but he knows now that it can only be done from within. Creating mistrust of the Saudis is the only weapon he has left. Meanwhile, anybody who reads the paper should have figured out by now that none of the OPEC countries are in any position to corner anything right now,except maybe oil. I raised this point with FOA on Saturday in post #3623 and, having no answer, he left the room. By the way, that post still waits for rebuttal from anyone who would care to try.

Point Four- Look for the Brits to join, but not until more of the socialism has been rung out of Euroland. 15% gold backing is good, but not enough when European economies are weakening.

Point Five-Mostly true.

Point Six- False premise. A and FOA, whoever "he" is, is wrong.
Gandalf the White
The Stranger
Dearest Stranger, I loves ya, but sometimes you are dead wrong ! BTW "A and FOA" are two separate persons! You and everyone else may have their own opinions on any subject, but some things are sacred to the Hobbits and you are getting close to a need for an apology. We shall see what happens in the future, WHEN it happens. Then we can see whom is correct. NOT the court jester! GANDALF
<;-)
NORTH OF 49
What have I created!!
Good morning to all ( I spose to most, it's good evening)
A couple or three days ago I posted my location (isolated) and my ability to access USAGOLD (limited). I owe my link to a young communications engineer (26) who reminds me so much of myself, (30 years ago) full of whiz and vinigar, bulletproof, and all that S-man stuff. The guy has a voracious appitite for knowledge and has zeroed in on the GOLD arena with a vengance.

I have directed him to ANOTHER'S archives which he consumed like a locust, and (ok, I admit it) I directed him to a couple of other forums that examine the glittering world of gold.

Of course, dealing with him is like dealing with a spring hare. He wants to know where ANOTHER'S website is, he wants to know how to contact FOA---even wants his telephone number---(oh to be young again). Consequently, I have been trying to throw water on the fire, pressing the fact that fundamental knowledge comes incremental--tell that to the Testosterone Kid.

All was somewhat under control until this morning (sorry-evening) when some derogatory posts aimed at ANOTHER showed up on the "other" forum. An interesting event then took place. He scrolled down my bookmarks to the offending forum and hit "DELETE"--to my amazement his comment was "we don't need that crap anymore"

It used to be "out of the mouths of babes", is it now "through the eyes of the next generation?"

No49




Gentleman at USAGOLD
Oil for Gold Mathematics
The OIL/Gold Exchange rate has been on average from 1968 to 1998 at the
ratio of 21 to 1 [21 Barrels of Oil to 1 OZ of Gold. During the period 1986 to
1998 the exchange rate rose to 26.5 to 1 on average. With the recent
manipulation of the Gold price downward to the 284-282 level and the recent
quick rise of oil price to 15.25 per Barrel, the exchange rate has
dramatically moved to Oils favor at 18.6 to 1. This is a Sea Change Event and
there is no doubt as to the benefits for Oil. Oil now has the opportunity to
accumulate Gold at a substantial discount [per the Oil/Goild Exchange rate]
into the near further. The strong demand for Gold in the Middle East today
verifies that Oil has now started to accumulate the Gold. When Gold eventually
rises [or the Oil/Gold exchange normalizes] [ which would be considered the
back end of the deal] the gold they have accumulated will "again" add
substantially to the profit in this incredible transaction now in progress. It
is obvious this opportunity has been engineered by "Heads of State" to re-
liquefy the Middle East producers using Gold as the ultimate [and hidden]
vehicle in this transaction [as Middle East producers ONLY Except Gold or
USD's to Purchase Oil]. Rather Brilliant. And when the Oil/Gold exchange rate
normalizes and Oil moves to 18 per Barrel, we will probably see 400 Gold.

JADE
Richard, Oregon
Aristotle - Peter A
Aristotle - Nice discussion last weekend, often over my head so I just sat-back an listened. You pros did quite well, I enjoyed and got educated.

Peter A - Thanks for your post (3727). I probably do ask the same question - I'm new at this and have many years with a different mentality regarding investing and economics. Be patient, I may be thick headed, no I'm not, just very cautious. I've lost $s in the market, not a real good player. Sooo . . this is all new to me and I must not let fear or eagerness rule.

I'm outside Portland quite a distance and I can see the coastal range from my place. Twenty-two years here, and I've raised all four meat groups on this land. Not a farm or ranch, just small. I love the country. I picture you somewhere in the coastal range, probably on the way to Lincoln City.

A neighbor has a natural spring and pipes it across the back of my place to his, about � mile. When he returns this spring, I plan to ask him about tapping into his pipe, should the need arise.

Thanks for your comments and patience.
The Stranger
GANDALF
I do owe you an apology. The "court jester" remark was in poor taste. I only meant that your posts often bring a smile to my face. When you didn't respond, I thought 'oh, oh', I hope he doesn't think I don't take him seriously. I do take you seriously, and I ask your forgiveness for an act that, on second thought was just plain rude. You deserve better, and I hope I am still your friend.

As to the veiled duality theory regarding FOA/ANOTHER, please notice that I did say "probably". For that, I do not apologize. I would remind everybody that the table here is ROUND, as in having no sides. Let's also remember that if our search for the truth requires that some things cannot be questioned, we might as well shut this down and go back to watching television every night.

Gandalf, I would like to hear any specific objections you might have to my ideas regarding ANOTHER/FOA and their/his oil/gold theory. What do you think?

Your strange friend.
Goldfly
Howdy Stranger!! [Aristotle, now you STOP that!!!! You've got me doing it!]
I thought FOA answered pretty well in #3627 and #3628. True he didn't reply to your subsequent post, but that just seemed to be a reposit of your earlier point.

Saddam Hussein???....Huh? Propaganda?...What? Whoa, whoa- back up now. Please explain.

Your post are generally thoughtful and clearly understood, but this seems to be getting a bit dis-jointed.

GF

Goldfly
No49!!
Things seem to have quieted down over there, eh?? Glad to hear it!

Hey, that remindes of a joke.

You know how they got the name for Canada?

Three guys were sitting around trying to figure out what the first letter of the name should be:

Guy 1: "C", eh?

Guy 2: "N", eh?

Guy 3: "D", eh?

Rimshot! Da-dum-ting!

GF

TownCrier
Who Owns and Controls the Federal Reserve?
Do foreigners have command of the New York Fed to manipulate U.S. monetary policy for their own purposes and global political goals, namely the establishment of the sinister New World Order?

This subject is explored in the essay by Dr. Edward Flaherty/University of Charleston now appearing at USAGOLD's The Gilded Opinion. You may find it comforting that American citizens still seem to have some control over the political/economic process in this country, and that the economic future seems not to be in the hands of an overly powerful cabal of international bankers. The central bankers as a group wield considerable influence, no doubt, but they are not beyond constitutional control or potential reform. The author provides very convincing evidence that this is the case. That constitutes hope for gold hearts at this table and across the land.

Hear ye! Hear ye!
Take a walk through the castle, following the links to "The Gilded Opinion" from the USAGOLD Home Page. Or be magically transported forthwith:
http://www.usagold.com/FederalReserve.html
Gandalf the White
More discussion with The Stranger
Apology accepted ! YES indeed, we can present different views and discuss them here at the TABLEROUND without fear of a mace coming over the table. Fear not, I carry no weapons, (except for a few spells). [Remember that donkey spell I used in Russia, Goldfly ? ] You speak of some people touting a Iraq political line. This could not be further from the truth. I have a great number of friends in the M.E. Mr. S.H. of Iraq is not in that group, as I do not know him, but if I did, he still would not be in that group. Few I know outside of Iraq think "kindly" of Mr. S.H. of Iraq. Most ignore him. Might you be speaking of what you know not ? Please, let us not waste time and brainpower on such matters. Let us discuss important items, such as the first break in the dam of the equity markets, and the forthcoming military clashes in Kosovo and Serbia. Please advise what impacts on the POG these will make. Onward toward the battle, Knights.
<;-)
NORTH OF 49
GOLDFLY , "eh"--it's a dead giveaway isn't it?
Thanks for the giggle--hadn't heard that one before. Strange, the "eh" is pretty internationally recognized as a confirmed Canuck presence. I am from the western reagion, and it doesn't seem to surface as much there except for in the military. I do catch myself popping it out from time to time, but for the most part it seems to be an eastern phenomenom.
By the way, speaking of our military, I'm told that we have more employees at Revenue Canada (our version of the IRS) than we have in the armed forces. I feel so secure.

No49
The Stranger
Goldfly
Thanks for your reaction. Perhaps 3623 isn't as clear to others as it is to its author. If so, I apologize.

The heart of 3623, if I may paraphrase myself, goes to Another's portrait of manipulative oil exporters (or more specifically, manipulative Saudis) capable of dictating markets. This image of greedy arabs holding all the macroeconomic cards was prevalent in America's xenophobic '70s, but it eludes reality today.

Think about it. Almost all exporters of oil are now in deep doodoo, debtwise. You know that, Goldfly, just as well as I do. The Saudis are no exception. If they demanded gold for oil, buyers would turn to somebody who doesn't demand gold. That "somebody" would then either get a better dollar price or greater market share as a result. There is no evidence I know of that this has happened. Do you know of any?

I grew up in the oil business (you and me, North of 49). I have travelled all over the Middle East. For a number of years I even lived there. My father was once Texaco's top executive in Libya. The Saudis are a PAPER TIGER. They are a big nation with very few people and a BIG budget deficit. They are incapable of defending themselves and today they live in utter terror of Saddam. Though they can NEVER say so publicly, they are a defacto client state of the U.S.A. and probably will be for many years to come.

Another's theories require an Arabia and an OPEC with geopolitical leverage that, at this time, they simply do not have. Yet, somehow, Another has managed to convince some very bright people otherwise, perhaps even you. Obviously, he is no fool. So I am left to conclude that he is either crazy or has some political motive. Viewed in that light, the reference to Iraq becomes a compliment.

To FOA's credit, he answered an awful lot of questions Saturday. Perhaps he was just too tired, so late in the day, to properly address mine. But, I do not agree with your suggestion that he did.

Goldbugs, collectively, are sometimes viewed as wacko, head for the hills types that don't always put sufficient thought into what they do. Anyone willing to spend a little time at USAGOLD will quickly find out what a distortion that image is. I am proud to be here. I have learned a TON since coming here. But I know what rings true to my ear and what does not. Another may deserve every one of his followers, but I'm afraid I am not going to be one of them.
The Stranger
Gandalf
Thanks, Gandalf. I was posting when you posted, but perhaps my remarks to Goldfly are just as easily addressed to you.
Peter Asher
Goldfly
That's as bad as the one about the three guys who discovered a curved yellow troprical fruit, commenting on the taste to each other. Touche'
Peter Asher
With reluctance and trepidation
I've held of on this post for months, but its time has come.

Check me out on this arithmetic. The difference between an average price of $ 15.00 a day per bbl. and the $30.00 the Saudis allegedly want made up in gold, would require an oz. of gold at $300.00, for each 20 bbl. That's 250,000 oz., or 7.8 tons per day! Or 32 tons per day for all of OPEC. However, did I see something in 'Footsteps' about counting the weight at a much higher price?

Even at $3000 an oz., the .78 ton would have to come from somewhere, did some one say it's from the Fed, today? How much gwas, or is in Fort Knox?
Goldfly
Stranger- Point taken
Ah geo-political wrangling. Now there's a topic I'd like to sink my teeth into. But it's late, my wife isn't feeling well and I've got a sinkload of dishes to do. (Whine, whine whine.) But I can sum it up! Are you ready?

Politics makes strange bedfellows. Economics makes whores. When you put the two together, you get some high priced whores.

Yes that's extreme. I'm displaying a general garment here, and I'm not accusing anybody of anything. But, people are going to act in their own best interests.

What you say is true- It wouldn't due for the Saudis to alienate Uncle Sam (Why do you suppose Hussein still lives? I was sure after he scudded Israel, he had less than a year to live. I personally would not want to be a target of the Mossad. But somebody's palms are getting greased BIG TIME.)
However, the US is not the only player on the block. And if we lose a war in the near future, we could be perceived as being unable to stand in harms way for SA. Then what? I bet some people wearing flowing robes are losing sleep over that idea....

Then what if Hussein *does* get taken out? What would take his place? Then there's the Russians who have an interest in Iraq. Then there is Iran. If Iraq is weakened, what could Iran do? And the Chinese!! They are buddying up to Iran and they could be looking to use a big bunch of oil in this coming century.

And besides that, in the 70's, OPEC *DID* have us with our tongues hanging out. If they can piece it together as they've started to recently..... who knows?

OK, I thought this was going to be quick. But my point is: It isn't as simple as the Saudis better not cross us or we'll fix 'em. Maybe they think that if they play along with the New Order they can get by and still mollify the US with some kind of sweetheart deal. I dunno......

Now, (oh brother, there's more) having said all that, I don't necessarily subscribe to the oil/gold/euro scenario. Because I just don't know. But it does make a good peg to hang your hat on, and if somebody is just making this up, then they are REAL GOOD at it.

Dishes. Dishes, dishes, dishes.

GF
The Stranger
Goldfly
You won't see this tonight, because you are up to your elbows, as it were. But thanks for facing me on these matters. As always, what binds all of us is a powerful belief that good fortune is headed our way. I hope your wife feels better in the morning.

Your friend,
Stranger
The Stranger
Peter
Your arithmetic checks out just fine with me. You've got me wondering, 'Why didn't I think of that?'

'night, everybody!
Gentleman at USAGOLD
If the Saudis are going to make a move on Gold, then its going to be now.

The Gold/Oil Exchange rate is sitting at a 14 year low in favor of OIL at 18.8 bls to 1 oz Gold. They can take their fiat electronic USD's and buy physical all day. They can then sit and gold back their currency. That would be a rather nice position. We have Oil and now Gold These people are smart and play the long game [not qtr to qtr like here]. So lets sit back and see if they make their move. It has been guessed here on many of the Gold Forums that the Saudis have already aquired a very large hoard of Gold over the years [5000 tons]. They may very well knock down many many 100 tons before you or I get wind of it.

JADE
Peter Asher
Richard
Two things I want to bring up. First, debt. If your still carrying a Mortgage, you might want to pay it out into the future a bit. If we have a deflationary collapse and there is no moratorium for personal residences, than anyone who is further down the foreclosure list will be gotten around to in ten years. That's what we're doing. We acquired a large debt to turn the dwelling into a showpiece for our work, and would be in deep ---- if the dollar tanked domestically . I just think that if that happened, most every one else in this debtor nation would be in the same situation, and "they" will have to come up with something other than 'National Bankruptcy Day.' Nevertheless, I would pay it off if I could. We just got enough Coins to cover a couple of months emergency. Which brings me to subject number two. Remember in my big Y2K 3 part essay, I said that "Your gold is better off in the vault of a closed Bank than in the hands of a crook." The only gold I keep at home is my little contest coin, Rather than a 44 Magnum under the pillow, I like the armament carried by the Trooper that would answer the banks burglar alarm. As for home and hearth, I don't know about your area but I have paranoid, trigger happy, little old ladies for neighbors, who challenge people in normal times. If our area gets "flatlander" visitors in a Y2K panic, they'll probably plug anybody who slows down below 20 mph!

One other thing. Since you apparently have live food grazing or clucking around you might want to have some well armed house guests next January. We certainly aren't going to be just "us".

Mind you, I don't personally think there is going to be that kind of a break down. The means of production are not going to be destroyed as in a War They aren't going to have to rebuild physical things.. It will be as if half the labor force, in this case the electronic robots, don't show up for work for a month or two. However, the media, which for the last year ignored or negated the threat, may now blow it up into an end of the world alarm, to sell copy.
Peter Asher
Jade
They, The Saudis, more likely have to support the national standard of living they became accustomed to at $30 + per barrel. There probably isn't any "discretionary" income to buy the gold with.
sheople
buckle up lambs
gonna get a little rough from here on in.
Russia mobilising tactical nuclear weapons.
beesting
Interpretation
If I may be so bold as to jump into this current discussion about last Sat. nights discussion.My interpretation of the oil for Gold swap thru the EURO was just that.The Gulf oil producing states take payment for oil to the 11 Countries on the EURO standard in 15% Gold backed money the EURO.My opinion, they may cut oil supplies to countries who pay in dollars simply because at some point in time they may want to cash in EURO'S for the 15% Gold content,a more durable substance than paper.I think what ANOTHER and FOA were saying is (and I may be wrong) When the other oil producing countries,over a period of time'see the effect of Gold entering the Gulf oil producing states they will follow suit and eventually accept only Gold backed Euro's in payment for oil.The effect of Gold entering a country has the tendency of strengthening their local currency in relation to the currencies of the rest of the world.It also,again over a period of time,would make the price of Gold rise in every currency including Dollars and if a foreign debt is owed in Dollars would take less local currency to pay off the debt.Example:If it takes $30,000 of my money ($U.S.)to buy a new car it only takes the equivalent of $10,000 Kuwait peices of paper to buy the same car.Their currency is more valuable world wide than mine.Does this make sense?.......beesting
Peter Asher
sheople
Nothing on Cnn or Exite, what's you scource?
turbohawg
Hey Stranger
Whether you're right or wrong on your take of Another and FOA, count me as one other who sees a need to challenge more of what they say. That took place more in the short time they were here last week than it ever did before, at least here at the Forum (the Kitco dialogue preceded me). In the post last Thurs, I did my best to come up with a best case scenario that could make sense of Another's predictions. With his reply Saturday, he shot that scenario down cold, and in the process, left me incredulous.

>Oil demand is broken from dollar default, not less requirement of oil for manufacturing need.< What about the Marxist/economic interventionist govts that make a fiat currency possible (and necessary) in the first place ?? A new world reserve currency would do little to change, for instance, the perpetual recession in the socialist European countries that leads to 10%+ annual unemployment and artificially low oil demand.

>Future true valuation of all US dollar assets does show the equity lies low from present expressions of value. We see this froth in Dow Jones, yes? It is as the foam upon the ocean after the wind of much churning. Soon to become the calm sea of major loses for investors in this storm! [so far so good] The loss of this value, thru currency settlement change would indeed benefit world and harm only excess in America. Other nations would find much demand for products of local production, if priced in new currency that brings no default.<

I was preparing a detailed response that took him to task on his view that only the US would suffer, but PH in LA's post suggesting that Another may be similar to us, taking public info and interpreting it rather than being an insider, encouraged me to just let it slide (plus my time has been very limited). Suffice it to say that not only would a significant part of oil demand go away in the most important US market in a dollar collapse, but given that much of the production of the rest of the world depends on the health of the US economy, a lot of that demand would be lost as well. No, not forever. But what happens in the interim (bankruptcy, war, revolution) could be a killer for the oil producers.

Even if Another does have access to inside info, that doesn't mean he could correctly interpret what would happen as a result of a move of oil from the dollar to the euro. Nevertheless, he's an entertaining read.

I know what you mean when you say "I do wonder if I am not making myself about as popular as a man getting up in church to argue the death of God". There have been times when I thought my posts went over like a terd in the punchbowl. Hopefully, dissenting views will always be welcome ... we would be doing each other no favors if we were nothing but 'yes' men/women ... if we all agreed, I probably wouldn't need to get my daily USAGOLD fix.
Peter Asher
Help !!
Has anybody got a confirmation or negation, on the nuclear item? We are trying to find out if our daughter left the other day on a possible trip to Duesseldorf, and won't know till morning, so we are a bit Freaked Out!!!
turbohawg
Peter
check the Drudge Report: http://www.drudgereport.com/
Peter Asher
Whew !!
According to the information available to TASS, in case the situation takes
an unfavorable turn for Russia, the Ministry is "preparing proposals on
possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of
Byelorussia."

Thanks Turbo, "preparing proposals" is not "mobilizing."
SteveH
April gold ?
browser won't go to quote.com, hangs her up bad. Others take up flag for now.

My friend's note to me sure seems to have sparked lots of opinions. I cut lots of them to forward along. What I like about the email was it was from a person who has read "In the Footstep of Giants" and choice pass-alongs from various sites but is also an ardent observer of life from mid-America. So the post was a compilation of thought not biased by daily fixes of Kitco or usagold or others, rather doses of Wall Street Journals with a few emails on goings-on in the gold ethereal world. I thought that the post hit relevence square in the eye. So our responses both direct and on the perimeter will please this person, I am sure.
jinx44
Beesting at 15%
Reference your post of yesterday---"My opinion, they may cut oil supplies to countries who pay in dollars simply because at some point in time they may want to cash in EURO'S for the 15% Gold content". I have posited this question too, and don't feel I have ever received a good answer.

I have yet to receive any confirmation that the ECB will give up ANY gold if you want to cash in euros. They will take gold in exchange for euros but it is a one-way street. They have gold backing but no convertability to gold. The euro is just another fiat currency like the dollar, but without the debt associated with it. Hence, if the OPEC nations switch to the euro for oil settlement, the demand for the euro will far outstrip the supply. This demand is what I see bolstering the euro, not the 15% gold "backing". It is not a perfect currency, it just doesn't have the debt baggage the $US has. That is its' secret.

Comments?
T. Remital
Timming is everything!!!!
Didn't I hear that GOLDMAN SACHS is planning a IPO sometime soon? It seems strange
that Abbey Cohen of the same firm tells the world that the Dow is heading for 10.300
before the end of the year, the day after the Dow slips over 200 pts. What's the mater
Abbey? are you afraid of missing out again?...
The Stranger
jinx44
I think an OPEC switch to the Euro is very plausible. However, with so many other variables affecting currency valuation, such as relative rates of inflation, economic growth and so on, I do not have the courage to predict Euro vs. dollar.

One other point: Opec oil doesn't normally sell to countries. It sells to international oil companies. Opec would have difficulty denying delivery to selected nations.

By the way, how or why the oil companies have kept the secret of history's greatest transfer of gold from their stockholders is beyond me. If the theory were true, I suspect there would be a lot of law suits coming.
TownCrier
Morning News
HEADLINE: Fed expected to add reserves via system RPs--March 24 (Reuters)

Getting the money "out there"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990324/ob.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Brazil borrows at 44.9 pct in technical move--March 24 (Reuters)

At 45% interest, you know it is not worth much. Who's next?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990324/ie.html
------------
HEADLINE: Asian Stock Prices Tumble--HONG KONG March 24 (AP)

SEAsia revisited...Nikkei and Hang Seng each lose 3%
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990324/asian_mark_1.html
------------
HEADLINE: Market learned from LTCM problems-Fed's Meyer--March 24 (Reuters)

Whole banking system susceptible to risk from huge private investment funds
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990324/pl.html
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Safe haven buying and rising oil prices
MARKET UPDATE (3/24/99) Gold tracked sideways again today. Yesterday the metal
traded as down as much as $2 before rallying near the close to stay even on the day. There
seems to be support around the $282 level. Some saw the end of session up-tick as linked to
safe-haven buying related to the Kosovo crisis. If you agree with the presumption that most
of yesterday's activity in all markets was linked to an impending rise in oil prices, as I do,
then you might consider yesterday's stock market slide, as well as gold's recovery,
indicative of the start of a much deeper trend that could alter the course of all markets. But
we have had these false starts before and the next few trading days will be telling whether or
not yesterday was a one day wonder or the start of something more considerable. As it is, a
rising oil prices are not something to casually dismiss. Oil plays a role in the pricing of just
about everything in the modern economy, and rising oil means a generally rising price level,
followed by rising interest rates and trouble for stocks and bonds. Much of what has gone in
the past few days seems eerily familiar to those of us who lived through the 1970s -- the gas
lines, price controls, raging inflation and interest rates -- and, by the way, a gold price that
went from $35 to $875 in less than a decade. For the moment though, it seems those price
levels must remain a fond memory, as the shorts seem to have a firm grip on this market.
When gold tried to rise yesterday, there was heavy hedge fund selling, according to last
night's Bridge News report. Seems the shorts and professional traders must protect their
positions with ever-growing tenacity or face the consequences of a runaway market. Why
else would they be so quick on the trigger? Not to worry. The bulls -- and by that I mean
millions of ordinary citizens around the world -- can find comfort in the fact that the
professional on Wall Street and in London have handed them the opportunity to purchase
currency insurance at bargain basement prices. And judging by the figures on gold coin
sales, and reports from the nation's gold brokerages, the public is taking them up on it.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if warranted.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
Jade
Test
TEst
AEL
turbohawg:
Dissenting views will always be welcome with me!

I hope the rest of the gang here feels the same way.
AEL
PS:
We (goldhearts) ARE the dissenters, remember?
AEL
The Other Y2K Problem (Japan)

http://www2.gol.com/users/png/

A Special Financial Report

The Other Year 2000 Problem

The world's largest financial institution is facing a ticking timebomb.

The largest financial institution in the world is the Japanese Postal
Savings System. It was created in the mid 1960's as a convenient and safe
system for "ordinary people" to invest in time deposits. In return, the
government benefited from the steady cash deposits.

The original concept was that small-lot depositors would create a small
financial institution. Japan was not a wealthy nation then and Japanese
banks and government ofiicials continually drummed the concept of save,
save, save to the Japanese consumer. And save they did. Today, the
outstanding balance of Postal Savings is about 250 trillion yen (~U.S.$2.2
trillion). Those are trillions not billions.

You rarely see trillion dollar numbers thrown around because those kinds of
numbers are reserved for people like Alan Greenspan when he talks
about...whatever it is he talks about. I think he talks about gross
domestic products. So, most people associate the phrase "trillions of
dollars" with Alan Greenspan which means most of you are asleep right now.

The sheer size of Postal Savings makes it capable of affecting the entire
global financial picture should any drastic changes occur. The basic
financial intruments of Postal Savings are 10-year fixed-rate deposits. If
you think back ten years ago, Japan was at the height of it's financial
power and the inflated bubble economy.

In 1990, the Postal Savings was offering compounded annual yields of over
8.5% on ten-year deposits. Japanese "ordinary people" poured about
$1trillion into the system. They subsequently withdrew about 40%, but the
remaining balance with interest will come to maturity in 2000.

Starting in 2000, people will be lining up at post offices to redeem their
10-year bonds. Since rolling over into new fixed-rate Postal Savings
deposits will yield only about 0.2% interest, I expect most will want to
put their money elsewhere. How much are we talking about here? Well, we're
talking about an Alan Greenspan amount of money...about $1 trillion
dollars.

I know you're sleepy, but stay with me here. $1 trillion is about the same
as the GDP's of Canada and Mexico combined.

So can you imagine all these Japanese housewives lined up at post offices
with their savings books, asking for over 20% of Japan's GDP...in cash?

"Okane wo misete kudasai" (Show me the money)

Now, the question is...where is the money? Obviously the money is
"invested." The problem is that much of it is "invested" in what are called
"special corporations." Special corporations are businesses set up by the
government bureaucrats to be run by former and retired bureaucrats. It is
estimated that these special corporations have lost over $500 billion by
allowing retired bureaucrats to pretend to be businessmen.

The Japanese government plan is to "hope" only half of the people want
their money. Then perhaps they can sell $500 billion of more bonds to pay
for the redemption of the first bonds. Bond prices could skyrocket for such
a scheme.

If that isn't enough, consider that next year companies are required to
report the status of employee retirement funds. Currently, Japanese
companies are not required to disclose this information. Many very large
companies do not have the abiity to meet their pension obligations to
Japanese baby boomers who devoted their lives to companies in exchange for
their retirement money.

The disclosure of corporate pension shortfalls could provoke 75% or more of
Postal Savings investors to cash in their time deposits at maturity. There
just isn't enough money to cover that scenario.

I have never been able to visualize a scenario that would prompt Japan to
sell it's massive holdings of U.S. Treasury Bills. I'm starting to see a
scenario now.


TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! If you missed the announcements yesterday...
The latest USAGOLD updates:

This Week in Gold--weekly commentary by the World Gold Council.

ALSO

"Who Owns and Controls the Federal Reserve?"--another in-depth essay at The Gilded Opinion.

Please visit both rooms in the castle. Walk to the USAGOLD Main Hall (Home Page) and you will be shown the way--a simple quest for both Knights and Squires alike.
Jade
Peter Asher
That would make a good argument, but they have only seen 30 dollar oil in 3 years. 1980-1981-1982. The average over the last 30 years has been 21 and if it you look at the prices year by year they run in the 15-19 dollar range. About right where we are now. What I have proposed here has nothing to do with the Euro. This is an engineered plan [no doubt by Rubin] to add fresh liquidity using Gold as an option to increase the percentage in the play. It also buys Rubin time [friends of Rubin] to unwind some of their Gold Shorts before the time runs out. So they are killing two birds with one stone, with that stone being Gold at 282-286. Also I would add, if we can not really figure out if Buffet still holds his Silver, how are we going to see 200-400 tons run thru Dubai into Saudi or some dumb Central Bank handing over 100's of tons in trade for electronic fiat USD's. I think these oil producers are a little smarter than we give credit. They have survived the insanity that rules in that part of the world over the last 30 years.
beesting
jinx44 Stranger and all.
Need some help here'stayed awake half the night trying to trace in my mind the path of Gold from refinery to wherever it ends up.I don't think large amounts(tons) of Gold ever leaves vaults.If the Gulf oil producers collect and are able to hold on to enough Euro's that could cause a shortage of Euro's forcing the printing of more Euro's and causing the Euro countries to either buy or cough up more physical Gold to back them.
The U.S. dollar is so spread out over the entire world,if they ever all came home at once, hyper-inflation.The Euro was launched to compete with the dollar as an international currency.I think supply and demand,up to a point controls values of currency's also.
Now,what I'm having a hard time with'say an oil producing country wants to buy Gold on the open market(large amount) pays for it in any fiat money,can they take physical delivery?? My understanding is most large amounts of Gold never leaves storage facilities.There may be as few as 10 storage facilities secure enough to handle tons of Gold world wide.If this is true,isn't that how the hedge funds were able to create more paper Gold than exists physical Gold? This leads to the assumption that countries that have physical Gold not in their possession right now,with the world situation what it is,may be getting very worried about the safety of their Gold hoards.Comments welcome.........beesting
The Stranger
AEL
Three great posts, my friend. #3788 is simply marvelous. Just to prove I stayed awake, however, I'll bet the author meant bond YIELDS would skyrocket in the fourth paragraph from the bottom.
PH in LA
Looking for perspective on Another's THOUGHTS
Turbohawg:

Your's reference to my post almost seems to be the only proof that it was read at all, which gladdens my heart. However, let me comment on your interpretation that I think "that Another may be similar to us, taking public info and interpreting it rather than being an insider".

It should come as no surprise if I charactarize Another's point of view as one of the most important voices at this forum. But by this I do not mean to make him into a diety whose word should be enshrined in a bible and never questioned. On the contrary: Another's words spark almost more questions than they offer in answers (a quality I admire and almost expect in a thoughtful disertation.) However, I usually find it more fruitful to focus my own thinking on interpretation rather than looking for disagreement.

By this I mean to say that it is all too easy to seek out the appearance of contradiction and then use it to negate the totality of his thought, much of which meanwhile remains poorly understood. This technique of intellectual slothfulness was used to smear Another on that other forum, eventually driving him (along with many other good minds) away. LGB's pitiful attempt at logic went something like: "I have been to the middle East; I know how people are there, and this guy is not from the Middle East. Therefore, everything he says is worthless." Nothing was accomplished by that campaign except to make room for the forum's domination by weak, flaccid minds who offer little beyond mindless, continous diatribes against public figures and flippant comments about nearly everything else.

My post to which you referred was intended to focus on Another's source of information and his intellectual thought processes. Not to weaken his argument or to disprove his thesis. Just as it is easy to look for contradiction to disprove the totality of his thought, the converse is true: It is even easier to put one's faith in the expert; thereby relieving one of responsibility for thinking for one's self. The "expert insider" is thereby expected to pronounce on Y2K, Texas oil capacity, European political questions, the situation in Yugoslavia, China, you-name-it, etc. This is patently unproductive, even dangerous to one's own intellectual integrity.

Another obviously appears to know what he is talking about. As readers and thinkers, we ought to be very certain we understand exactly what that is. And then pitch our comments and disagreement at the whole of his thought. Not at isolated misinterpretations. And this includes taking into account that "Footsteps of Giants" were his thoughts at that time. Not everything written there applies to today. And that's the hard part...distinguishing what does from what doesn't!

In a word: Understanding!

Understanding...just exactly what Another does so well! And, like all profound thinkers, what he ultimately wants us to do, too.
The Stranger
beesting
Just caught your thought-provoking post, which is addressed to me and to the room. Unfortunately, I am out the door right now. I promise to give it the attention it deserves when I return. Thanks.
Aristotle
Amazing
Even as NATO launches its first attack against Yugoslavia, TresSec Rubin declares in a speech that the U.S. Dollar will remain "very much the world's currency" despite the euro.

Wasn't the company line just a short three weeks ago, "we will manage the dollar solely with America's interests in mind"? So why the renewed interest in being the World's Currency? eh? Hmm? Huh? Getting nervous perhaps? Because, brother, if the world doesn't need it, it doesn't do us much good, now, does it?

Swappin' dollars for the REAL world currency--GOLD. Get you some. ---Aristotle
turbohawg
PH in LA
point well made ... I apologize to you if it seemed like my reference to your previous post mischaracterized the whole thing. As is now obvious, it made me think and resulted in a change of action on my part.

Incidentally, I read every single post when I have a chance ... lots of good ones that I choose not to comment on simply to not clutter up the Forum ... so if no one comments, don't think that no one was paying attention ... you can bet at least one person read it and thought about it.
The Stranger
Yet Another Apology from Big Mouth
Yesterday I referred to one of Another's ideas as crap. I ask FOA, Another and the entire forum to forgive me. It is not unlike me to lose control in this manner, and I promise to try to do better next time. Again, my apologies to all.
crazybouttampa
I.M.F. gold
I was wondering if anyone knows WHERE all that I.M.F. gold is stored, and if an audit has ever been conducted. What's to prevent the gold being "double counted" from central bank supplies?
The Stranger
beesting
In that your post is, in part, addressed to me, I will comment only, as I am not qualified to provide you with a thorough response.

I question your premise about oil exporters accumulating large amounts of Euros or gold. Still, I think we can determine how such wealth might be stored by examining how wealth is being stored today. This is the part I am not qualified to answer, as I simply do not know. But, I believe many of these governments actually feel safer having their wealth OUTSIDE the country. Some Gulf states, in particular, are thinly populated countries for whom domestic gold storage might act as an inducement to those thinking of overthrowing their governments. I don't know how much gold Kuwaitis had on hand in 1990, for example, but I suspect it isn't their's anymore.

Perhaps someone else is better equipped to respond.
turbohawg
AEL
yes, I do remember ... and as Stranger noted the other day in his own words, it's nice to have a place to go to discuss the things we see unfolding but most others seem oblivious to.

By the way, if anyone has not checked out AEL's Y2K/Gold/Crash related sites, they're well considered and info packed and can be found at:

http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/realcomm.htm
http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/realchek.htm
http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/goldbear.htm
http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/y2kstock.htm
http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/crisisv1.htm
http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/crisisv2.htm
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Gold down despite strikes vs Serbs
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 24--COMEX Apr gold futures settled down 60 cents at $284.10
per ounce after an inside day's trading, showing little reaction to news late in
the session that the US and NATO had started airstrikes against the Serbs.
Silver, platinum and palladium also settled lower in subdued markets.
"People are holding back--there was good movement last week and now it's
just consolidating," said one trader. He said that players could be taking a
"wait-and-see" attitude after Apr gold's fall to a 6 1/2 month low of $282 on
Mar 16.
"The Kosovo thing could be keeping people from doing anything--they probably
want to see if the problem lasts, or if it will be over quickly," he said. He
noted that if it hurts US relations with Russia, which is opposed to the
airstrikes, it may eventually spur a price rally.
US and NATO allies started airstrikes today against Serbs in order to hurt
the Serb military's ability to threaten the ethnic Albanians in the
Serb-controlled province of Kosovo. The
strikes were made after Serbs continued to refuse to sign a peace accord.
One trader commented that if there had been no gut reaction to the Kosovo
situation, gold was probably not going to get any kind of a boost. Sometimes
gold gets a boost from such events, because, as a physical asset, it is regarded
as a safe-haven in times of crisis.
However, the trader noted that gold prices could have been pressured after
crude futures fell back sharply after reaching almost a 6-month high this
morning. He suggested that the dollar's rebound from this morning's slide
against the yen was also erosive for gold prices.
One trader said that there is "really nothing happening," noting that the
push and pull factors in gold right now have essentially left it little-changed.
However, he noted that the fear the IMF will sell a portion of its gold
assets is still a cloud on the horizon.
US president Clinton's urging the IMF to sell off a portion of its gold to
help poor nations pushed Apr gold to last week's 6 1/2 month low.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Gandalf the White
PH in LA's message #3793
Thanks for the "let us think" challange! And now one knows why I refer to you as "the PhD of LA". Let us discuss any and all thoughts and items of interest to Goldhearts in calm and proper language. Thereby, we can all learn, think and choose what we each wish to believe. Most likely no one believes everything that I do, as no one has done all the stupid things that I have, and still managed to be alive and in one whole, but aged piece. Really like to hear of the real world experiences of all the travelers.
<;-)
Aristotle
Rah! Rah! Sis-Boom-Bah!!
"Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sach's chief market strategist on Tuesday raised her 1999 targets for the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average based on a the profit growth outlook.
At the same time that Cohen, a noted bull, raised her stock price targets, she lowered her earnings estimate for the S&P 500 after 1998 results came in weaker than she had expected." [Huh? Wha? Higher prices with lower earnings?? Based on "the profit growth outlook"?? More like, based on herd mentality. The sheep run both directions, sweetheart.]

"Cohen raised her 1999 S&P 500 index target to 1325 after previously estimating it would reach a range of 1275-1300. She said she now expects the Dow Industrials to hit 10,300 by the end of the year, up from a previous forecast of 9,850." [Oh, she's good... she's veeeeeery good... This is shameless window dressing for an IPO that will ring the bell to signal the market top if in fact it has not already come and gone.]
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Precious Metals
For the second straight day, FWN used the Bridge Report. So if you were holding your breath, see below and exhale.
jinx44
I stole this shamelessly from Cory Hamasaki's site. If you're still not sure about y2k?
bsting--you're next.

**************************************

-- What will happen --
I've been looking for a concrete example that will explain why SHMUEL, InfoMagic, Bill Hoyt, Ed Yourdon, Steve Heller, and others are worried about Y2K. At the last WDC Y2K representatives from several law firms spoke and one of them cited an excellent example.
Some background - I've written about the situation with PhyCor, Physician's Corporation, a Tennessee paperwork handling and finance company that came into this area and sold some docs a bill of goods.
To be fair, there is merit in the concept of turning office assets into cash and letting someone else handle the paperwork required by insurance, Medicare, etc.
When everything works, it works.
But in the case of PhyCor, something went horribly wrong and a cash flow crisis erupted in Maryland's medical community. Docs closed offices and laid off personnel. Not my problem, not your problem, and not a matter of life and death; unless you notice a lumpy-bumpy where there wasn't one before. Not a problem unless it's your doc who closed his office and you let the lumpy-bumpy go an extra few months or so.
Who wants to go to a strange doc and have them poke around your special body parts, the parts with both utilitarian and entertainment value? Let it go too long and you might be hearing about metastasizing cells, have to listen to your family sobbing. But that's the PhyCor story.
The lawyers spoke about Oxford Health. I checked them out, here's the deal. Oxford was a high flying medical insurance company, sharp marketing, figured out how to work the docs and companies that wanted to offer a good health plan to their employees. The Oxford stock was a rocketship.
Something went horribly wrong.
According to the lawyers and news clippings, Oxford attempted to switch database systems in mid stream. The technical details are sketchy but they had software problems for a year that involved losing transactions, not issuing bills, failing to pay the docs for services, and other accounting errors.
Some denialists like to pretend that any system can be fixed in, oh, 3 hours, maybe a half day on the outside. Oxford flubbed around for a year. In fact, there seemed long periods of time, weeks or months, during which Oxford thought its systems were working but they weren't.
Litigation, bankruptcy, people sucking lemons to make faces at each other. Oxford's stock price collapsed, jobs were lost, and somewhere in all that, there was certainly at least one person who said, ah, this lumpy-bumpy in my special body part, I'll put off getting it checked out until my insurance is working again.
Say this to yourself, read it out loud if necessary, everything else was working; the power was on; telcos, fuel, no programmer crisis but still the IT shop at Oxford was in paralysis for a year.
Please denialist butt-heads, don't argue with me. Tell the people who lost money, lost insurance coverage, lost their jobs, and maybe lost a loved one, that the Oxford insurance problem was just hype, a trick by consultants to grab for the bucks. Please give us proof that Oxford insurance did not have those problems, use your big-brain, that's what it's for, shoot, shoot the coke machine with your brain.
Until you can do that. Sit. Don't Speak.

TownCrier
One-stop shopping for gold and internet news
HEADLINE: Dines' golden rule: Buy the Internet--CBS MarketWatch

An interesting interview with James who is having the time of his life with internet stocks. This longtime goldbug says many currencies are antiquated instruments that are cruising for a bruising, and he's hoping gold doesn't take the punchbowl away from this party.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990323/news/current/stwatch.htx?dist=hdlnbug&source=blq/yhoo
jinx44
Beesting
I agree about countries being nervous. Their gold is held hostage. Your point about euro creation: I think that the ECB would tell the CBs to ante up X more tons of gold or perhaps go to the market and buy gold with new euros or extra dollars. This means that 270 euros = 1oz fine. If they can print paper and trade it for gold..........wait, isn't that the whole point??? Get Gold, now.
T. Remital
GA DAY MATES
You mates down under see the new day before we do , you also can get a good look at the
start of the precious metal mkt. before we see the sun come up. In reading some of your
posting on kitco it is obvious that you are in a quandry about the manipulation of gold
that is taking place...your not alone. We have heard that LTMC could be short 1000
tons of gold through loans,derivites, or contracts. When A.GREENSPAN came to the
rescue with the help of INV Bankers such as Goldman,Merrill etc. The big manipulation
started to unfold.They have done everything under their power to keep a lid on the POG from
rising, at the expense of the mining industry, the CB,S and the many investors who have
been robbed of a free market enviorment. TIME IS RUNNING OUT..they can't keep your
hand on the lid much longer. The forces of nature are about to win out, GATA may help,
but the big thing now is the huge demand for gold that is taking place daily..The hedge
fund managers didn't figure on the little guys, in mass, buying up gold as fast as they can.
The only way the hedge fund mgrs. can protect themselves now is to BUY GOLD PRODUCERS.
We may have seen the start of this today!!! The XAU closed up today, on top, even though
the price of gold and silver declined. We are not looking at small potatoes here--If the price
of gold advanced to just $320 per oz LMTC would lose ONE BILLION $.[no wonder they want
to keep the lid on] ..wish we could meet at the pub to talk more about this..hang in there.


Aristotle
Response to IMF question
crazybouttampa (3/24/99; 12:49:24MDT - Msg ID:3798)--I.M.F. gold
"I was wondering if anyone knows WHERE all that I.M.F. gold is stored, and if an audit has ever been conducted. What's to prevent the gold being "double counted" from central bank supplies?"

The IMF holds 3,217,341 kilograms of gold (103.4 million fine ounces) at designated depositories (the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is a likely candidate!), valued in the IMF's financial statements at SDR 3.6 billion on the basis of SDR 35 per ounce (except for a minor amount accepted by the Fund in 1992 in partial settlement of a member's overdue obligations, and valued at the then-prevailing market price). Valued at current market prices, the IMF's holdings amount to almost $30 billion. These holdings represent the balance of the IMF's stock of gold after the gold auctions and the restitution of gold to members in the period 1976-80. While gold is reflected as an asset in the IMF's balance sheet, it is not used in the Fund's operations and transactions. According to Article V, Section 12 (b) of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, any transactions in gold by the IMF require an 85 percent majority of the total voting power of the IMF. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices; it may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations to the IMF at an agreed price on the basis of prices in the market at the time of acceptance. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions, e.g., loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral, and the IMF does not have the authority to buy gold. What's to prevent "double counting" by CB's? If one is inclined to double count, why stop there? The CB's might as easily lie outright about their individual gold holdings. We must hope that fraud is not the rule of the day.
Jade
Gentlemen, for your information.
There is a new book that just hit the bookstores on Goldman Sachs [same title]. There are about 20 pages regarding GS's Gold operations. These 20 pages are a must read. You will be amazed at GS's incredible level of expertise and all encompassing power in the Gold markets. When GS goes long this Gold market, I would not want to be short.
Aristotle
Jade, thanks for the tip.
However, when Goldman Sachs sees fit to go long in the gold market, they will be have to satisfy themselves with a position in paper only.
You see, my 'broker' is Goldfilled Sacks, and Goldfilled Sacks says, "You're too late if you haven't already secured delivery. If you are mindful of supply and counterparty risk, you soon realize that tomorrow is promised to nobody."

I sure do like my 'broker!' ---Aristotle
Jade
Detailed Calculations for the Gold/Oil Exchange Rate
Gold/Oil Exchange Rate for the years 1968 to 1998. These calculations are approximate.

Oil in USD per Barrel [Avg. for Yr]�.Date�.Gold Price [Avg. for Yr]�.Gold/Oil Exchange Rate [Barrels of Oil per 1 OZ Gold]
2.7...1968�..38..14
2.7...1969..�41..15
2.7...1970..�36..13.5
2.7...1971..�40..14.9
3�..1972�..58..19.3
5�..1973�..97..19.4
10.�.1974�159..16
11�..1975�161..14.6
12.5...1976�124�9.9
14�..1977�147...10.5
15�. 1978�193....13
20�..1979�306�20.4
30�..1980�612�18
32�..1981�460�14.3
27�..1982�375�14
25�..1983�424�17
24�..1984�360�15
22�..1985�317�14.4
14�..1986�367�26.2
15�..1987�446�29.7
14�..1988�436�31.1
15�..1989�381�25.4
17�..1990�383�22.5
15�..1991�362�24.1
14�..1992�343�24.5
13�..1993�359�27.6
12.5.. 1994�384�30.7
13�..1995�384�29.5
14.5...1996�387�26.6
14�..1997�325�23.2
13�..1998�305�23.46
11.5..Dec98...297�25.8 Averages for Months
12.8..Jan99�287�22.4
12.3..Feb99�287�23.3
Event [Gold manipulation downward and rise in Oil]
15.25.Mar99�282-284�18.6..18.5
Average is 21-1 for 1968-1999�Average for 1986-1999 is 26.5 to 1. The exchange rate as of mid March has now shifted to Oils favor. Again when we see Oil at 17-18 and the exchange rate normalizes back to a historical average we will no doubt see 400+ Gold.

PH in LA
Back from the limb!
For whatever it's worth: No confirmation in the following for the manipulation advocates among us. On the other hand, it does demonstrate a certain logic. Of course, we might well keep in mind that last Friday, Kaplan went way out on a limb and made one of those regretable adolescent "calls" for a major DOW crash at the open on Monday. "300 Dow points down in the first hour of trading" was the way he put it. (No pun intended!) Didn't happen. Maybe he was drunk, snorting something exotic, or...? It did seem very uncharactaristic of him at the time.

"KAPLAN'S CORNER: Question: Why does gold not seem to respond to news the way it used to? Answer: One can travel for many miles on interstate highways without actually seeing thousands of wildflowers that are growing by the side of the road. In order for gold to react to news, or more accurately, to seem to react to news, there has to be a critical mass of investors who have become disenchanted with the stock market and are seriously considering or have already put money into alternative investments such as gold and its shares. This critical mass must be alert to the price of gold and ready to buy or sell it on short notice. Since most investors today are convinced that the stock market is the place to be, very few people even have any idea what the price of gold is, or has been recently, and couldn't care less. Therefore, gold is unlikely to have a strong reaction to any particular news event. This has generally been the case during equity bull markets. In bear markets, or during periods of time when a significant percentage of investors believe that we may be in a bear market for equities, gold will react because investors will buy or sell the yellow metal and/or its shares with much more enthusiasm. Gold reacted most strongly to news from 1973 through1982; it is no coincidence that this coincided with the greatest bear market since the Depression."

http://www.investor1.com/topframe_kaplan.html
AEL
PH in LA, #3793:

"...the forum's domination by weak, flaccid minds who offer little beyond mindless, continous diatribes against public figures and flippant comments about nearly everything else."

GEE that sounds like some chat boards that I know!

Which I why I always come back here.... :)
Richard, Oregon
Appreciation/Liquidity
I don't believe I've read a post here regarding gold bullion vs numismatic grades as to appreciation and liquidity. Does anyone know of any post, data, or study? What I (think) know at this time:
a) bullion has a 7% premium when bought (spot price when sold?)
b) numismatic grades have a 28% premium when bought and sold
c) Au bullion pieces have remained flat to down slightly over the last several years
d) Au & Ag numismatic grades have increase in value over the last several years
e) numismatic grades have no reporting requirements (IRS1099) by the buyer when sold, bullion does when over 25 oz
f) liquidity of bullion verses numismatic grades are equal(?)

Does anyone have information or comments? I'd be interested to learn more if it strikes a cord with anyone. If not, I'll just sit down!
Peter Asher
Too all Forum Experts
Last night I posted up some quantitative analysis on the 'gold for oil deal', the subject of 'Footsteps of Giants'. Other than Strangers cheery arithmetical agreement, there hasn't been a peep so far. Does anyone recall if, in "Footsteps", Another did say something about valuing gold at a much higher Dollar price for purposes of the "Deal"

If so, would the deal be quantitatively possible?

If possible, who pays out the gold out of who's pocket

And, depending on that answer, would there. be a correlation between this, and stories about Fort Knox gold being missing?

I hope I haven't chucked out an overly Hot Potato on the table. Or served up a dinner of roast sacred cow. But to mix a couple of metaphors, "If the truth fits, wear it".
Peter Asher
That was --
3/23/99; 21:39:40MDT - Msg ID:3765)
With reluctance and trepidation
SteveH
April gold (will have to switch soon to ?june?)...
now $283.70. Might see $284.70 overnight.

Some answers or guesses for Richard, Oregon:

Appreciation/Liquidity
I don't believe I've read a post here regarding gold bullion vs numismatic grades as to appreciation and liquidity. Does anyone know of any post, data, or study? What I (think) know at this time:
a) bullion has a 7% premium when bought (spot price when sold?). Depends on seller. Local dealer will charge more than national dealer. Local dealer most always charges tax, mail orders do not charge tax, except if you live in their state.

b) numismatic grades have a 28% premium when bought and sold. Depending on coin and grade, in other words rarerity and condition. 28% might only apply to specific grade and coin.

c) Au bullion pieces have remained flat to down slightly over the last several years. Gold has been trending down for last two years or so. With that, of course, so has bullion pieces. A bottom of about $272 was reached last year early on and has not been broken, meaning gold is trading with 5% or so of its bottom. You can't say that about the stock market, which is just about the inverse of gold.
d) Au & Ag numismatic grades have increase in value over the last several years. Most especially in the last year.

e) numismatic grades have no reporting requirements (IRS1099) by the buyer when sold, bullion does when over 25 oz. I read a whole article on this. I believe more of the reporting is on the buy side of non-US coins. For example, and correct me if I am wrong, $10k worth of 1998 gold eagles or silver eagles don't require a 1099b(?) but krugerrands would. There is more too it. I looked for my doc that I saved and it went buy-buy somewhere.


f) liquidity of bullion verses numismatic grades are equal(?). Bullion would seem easier in my opinion. Top price on numismatic requires a fair and well-attended auction.

USAGOLD
Question/Comment by E Mail Tonight
This option has over 57,000 contracts of open interest....In ten years of
observation I've never seen more tham 15 to18K of oi in a gold call
option....got any ideas? A calendar spread?? I'd like to think it's a small
portion of a very large spec's position for a manpulation sometime this year
if we get another financial crisis...positions on the london and Swiss
exchanges could be anticipated also. I'm sure the myth of a big trader who
could get a move to 5,6,800 dollars started must be a recurring fantasy of
gold bugs....but I must say this much oi is a curiosity. As for me I
instituted a perpetual gold hedge about 3 yrs. ago.I just bought 100 1999 $400
gold calls for 20 cents an oz. So for $2000 and commisions I'm covered till
Nov. 12th just in case Western Civization as we know it decides to come to an
ignominious end.Screw gold stocks...what could I buy for 3 G's? few hundred
shares? If I luck out and gold goes just to $500 I got a million dollar trade.
Gimme a hollar if you have anything on that $300 call- Thanks, Richard
Quixotic1
How much is that Slab in the window???
Steve H, and All,
In response to your inquiry, I did an informal historical beta plot on numismatic gold coins, with data going back as far as Coin Dealer NewsLetter(CDNL) would allow. I sent to CDNL for their reprints, to obtain the data first hand. On a spreadsheet, I did a comparison for graded 2 �, 5 and 10 Indians, $20 Saints, as well as about 10 better date $20. Saints. I tried to find reliably data for MS62 thrum MS65 grade of coins. I plotted data from before the last boom/peak(6/89), thru till 1 year after peak, just to get a better sense of the dynamics of the runup and subsequent blowoff.
I've had some very interesting observations about the chart. In general, it seems that the better grading of coin, the greater the beta during the peak. Also, and perhaps more interesting, the better date Saints, in general went up less % at that point in time, but they had much better post bubble price staying power.
The long and short of it, buy the best grade that you can afford, or purchase better date coins. I did this little comparison back in '98, but I brought it out of the closet to add justification for people when making purchase allocation decisions.
If any one is interested in seeing this spreadsheet, please email me, and I'll get it out ASAP. ucc1_207@yahoo.com
I'm a very long-term student of this sight, but haven't posted in the past. Normally, the serfs eat outside with the peasants. I'll stick to the eavesdropping on the Round Table. Great job that you scholars do. I just want to say THANK YOU. It's truly an inspiration for all who drink of the trough�.Gary

Gold for the good guys !
Gandalf the White
Re: Peter's question
somehow I got the idea that the crude oil "contract" was for a set low price per barrel -- plus gold based on the price of say $30,000. per oz. This would not be anywhere near your large quantity of physical. Does this make sense to you ? Whom is the buyer?- I have no idea. From where does the physical come?- I have no idea. your comments please.
<;-)
Peter Asher
Jade, AEL, ET, One thing led to another here.
Jade: Whatever time the Saudis were getting whatever price for their oil was not really my point. My understanding is that they, like the rest of the planet, are living beyond their means at the moment. Therefore, they wouldn't have funds for gold hoarding, unless they raided the national "grocery jar".

The storage of value in gold, requires one to have some unspent value available to store.

Oil trades in the marketplace. Producers sell it by whatever deal they can achieve with users who desire it. Maybe next week the best deal for some producers of oil may be 50 cumquats or 100 oranges per barrel. Or maybe a couple of thousand barrels for an SAM missile. The marketplace may never again trade gold for oil at its historic rate, or maybe it will.

Suppose the world collapsed back to basics. You (and certainly Aristotle) may have by then accumulated a substantial stored value in gold. I, on the other hand would probably have prepared for that eventuality by acquiring a wheatfield, a stone grinder and an oven. Unless you use some of that gold to acquire the means to produce something for exchange, I will eventually have all your gold and still have my wheatfield, grinder and oven.

So let's move on now to AEL's lovely reality check regarding the Japanese postal bonds.

I am fascinated how similar this is to the WWII War Bond. These were 'pay interest at maturity' 10- year instruments where you paid out $75.00 for a bond of $100 face value. After the war, as the maturity date came up, the government tried to get people to keep them longer and have the redemption value increase over time according to a table of value that I believe was printed on the back. Basically, perpetual IOUs until cashed. They also came up with new issues, which they then called 'Savings' bonds, to replace (or create) the money paid out in redeeming the War Bonds.

Bonds, stocks, Savings accounts, money market funds and CD's all have in common the simple, but I think often overlooked, fact that the money which purchased them has been SPENT! The most paramount factor in mankind's economic life is what that money gets spent for. When government spends on welfare, social programs or weapons; nothing which can pay back anything can be produced as a result of that expenditure. Likewise, when individuals spend borrowed money for things that are consumed, such as food or movie tickets, no productive capability is created.

Believe it or not, in the 1940's people who bought things on time payments were considered "the poor". Houses were mortgaged, but that was pretty much it. As the post-war economy got revved up, auto loans became socially accepted, and then appliances. However, in those days, the loan spans were definitively shorter than the life spans of the products. Since the convenience and the personal labor saving which was derived from possessions allowed one to produce more in life, there was still some productive payback, even from consumer credit.

I think the moment in time when the world began to go hell in an economic handbasket was when the banks came up with the Vacation Loan. I was a young man at the time, no more interested in economics than I was in an old age home. But I remember thinking, "I don't believe this! They're going to lend money for something that will be gone before the loan's paid back!" What once made no sense is now considered totally logical. That, by the way, is the key to the dwindling spiral of our society. Getting people to accept as normal, that which a sound and sane mind would reject out of hand.
ET: That's what's happening to these generations you were referring to the other day. Ever hear the expression "Values Neutral"? It's what the New World Order folks are having the shrinks put into our school systems to create a nation of psychopathic "Epsilons" who won't have the ethics or the intelligence to use the law of the land to defend themselves against the Masters of the Universe.

All our analysis of monetary function will be to no avail if we don't get a grip on the underlying activities of those who wish to create their wealth by the enslavement of everyone else. Take a starved man, feed him well, chain him to a Galley Oar and only whip him occasionally. He may perceive he's doing better!
Peter Asher
Jade, AEL, ET, One thing led to another here.
Jade: Whatever time the Saudis were getting whatever price for their oil was not really my point. My understanding is that they, like the rest of the planet, are living beyond their means at the moment. Therefore, they wouldn't have funds for gold hoarding, unless they raided the national "grocery jar".

The storage of value in gold, requires one to have some unspent value available to store.

Oil trades in the marketplace. Producers sell it by whatever deal they can achieve with users who desire it. Maybe next week the best deal for some producers of oil may be 50 cumquats or 100 oranges per barrel. Or maybe a couple of thousand barrels for an SAM missile. The marketplace may never again trade gold for oil at its historic rate, or maybe it will.

Suppose the world collapsed back to basics. You (and certainly Aristotle) may have by then accumulated a substantial stored value in gold. I, on the other hand would probably have prepared for that eventuality by acquiring a wheatfield, a stone grinder and an oven. Unless you use some of that gold to acquire the means to produce something for exchange, I will eventually have all your gold and still have my wheatfield, grinder and oven.

So let's move on now to AEL's lovely reality check regarding the Japanese postal bonds.

I am fascinated how similar this is to the WWII War Bond. These were 'pay interest at maturity' 10- year instruments where you paid out $75.00 for a bond of $100 face value. After the war, as the maturity date came up, the government tried to get people to keep them longer and have the redemption value increase over time according to a table of value that I believe was printed on the back. Basically, perpetual IOUs until cashed. They also came up with new issues, which they then called 'Savings' bonds, to replace (or create) the money paid out in redeeming the War Bonds.

Bonds, stocks, Savings accounts, money market funds and CD's all have in common the simple, but I think often overlooked, fact that the money which purchased them has been SPENT! The most paramount factor in mankind's economic life is what that money gets spent for. When government spends on welfare, social programs or weapons; nothing which can pay back anything can be produced as a result of that expenditure. Likewise, when individuals spend borrowed money for things that are consumed, such as food or movie tickets, no productive capability is created.

Believe it or not, in the 1940's people who bought things on time payments were considered "the poor". Houses were mortgaged, but that was pretty much it. As the post-war economy got revved up, auto loans became socially accepted, and then appliances. However, in those days, the loan spans were definitively shorter than the life spans of the products. Since the convenience and the personal labor saving which was derived from possessions allowed one to produce more in life, there was still some productive payback, even from consumer credit.

I think the moment in time when the world began to go hell in an economic handbasket was when the banks came up with the Vacation Loan. I was a young man at the time, no more interested in economics than I was in an old age home. But I remember thinking, "I don't believe this! They're going to lend money for something that will be gone before the loan's paid back!" What once made no sense is now considered totally logical. That, by the way, is the key to the dwindling spiral of our society. Getting people to accept as normal, that which a sound and sane mind would reject out of hand.
ET: That's what's happening to these generations you were referring to the other day. Ever hear the expression "Values Neutral"? It's what the New World Order folks are having the shrinks put into our school systems to create a nation of psychopathic "Epsilons" who won't have the ethics or the intelligence to use the law of the land to defend themselves against the Masters of the Universe.

All our analysis of monetary function will be to no avail if we don't get a grip on the underlying activities of those who wish to create their wealth by the enslavement of everyone else. Take a starved man, feed him well, chain him to a Galley Oar and only whip him occasionally. He may perceive he's doing better!
Aristotle
To Richard from the USAGOLD e-mail
I hope this strategy works for you, my friend. But my presence at this forum would have no purpose if I failed to bring a concern to your attention, and anyone else's with a similar strategy.
If your goal is to raise cash, stop reading now and move on to another post that may be more productive for you...I would only be wasting your time.
Still reading? Ok, either you are 1) curious, 2) bored, or 3) interested in more than cash. I will elaborate (in the event that 1 or 2 is your position) before moving on to address my concern.
I would never attempt to tell anyone how to raise cash. Their choice of career, gambling, stocks, futures, options, crime, etc is purely their own business. Trading gold futures or options is in this realm...something people utilize to try to raise cash. Maybe it will succeed, maybe it won't. Fine with me.

From your statement, "I'm covered...in case Western Civization as we know it decides to come to an
ignominious end" I get a sense that you are after more than cash. You would be after the stability that gold offers. Herein lies my concern. If Western Civ. comes to an ignominious end, is your options counter-party going to make good on their obligation to sell you 10,000 ozs gold for $4,000,000? Will you have the money to pay? Or are you going to sell the 100 contracts immediately at the higher spot price, and keep the cash difference? Again, this gets back to raising paper cash, and I have no comment, except this...In your example, you suggest maybe that gold would be $500 (in an end of Western Civ scenario?? or simply a best case scenario to raise cash?) and it would net you a million dollar cash profit. What value might a cashiers check for1,000,000 United States Federal Reserve Notes find in such a world?

Please don't misinterpret my comments as negative in any fashion. It is just that on this forum, and I think I may speak for the majority of the knights here, we see physical gold as the end, not the means. Cash is raised by whatever means uniquely suits each of us, and our excesses are held in gold. This is because we see the horizon over the heads of the herd, and the dollar does not look so good in the distance. Gold is durable money and currently undervalued relative to real things; the dollar is not, by either account. ---Aristotle

PS. to Quixotic 1--Good heavens, Man! You work far too hard to be eating at the trough. Take a chair at the table.
Peter Asher
Addendum to tonights sermon
It seems that the only way to truly 'save' money, is to stash fiat notes or precious metals in a vault. Any form of investment that pay's a return, is subject to the obligation or marketability of the paper 'receipt.' An FRN is not in my opinion an IOU. All the government owes on them is making change.

'Legal Tender' is a note that obligates (in normal times) a vendor of goods or services to deliver to you, price subject to negotiation. It would be possible in a social breakdown, that a Stock certificate in a farm or shoe factory, could have value whereas an FRN didn't. However, in a breakdown, nothing is really predictable. Normal economic times, barter society, two different worlds.
Mooski
AEL - You are God
You hit the scenario right on the head. (Japan needs, oh 500 Billion USD to cover obligations from their Postal 'bonds', and would need to cash in their massive holdings of US Treasury bonds.)

Let's take this scenario, throw in Y2K panic, and stir, shall we?

Once Y2K failures (which are occuring) start heating up, and the sheeple realize that the banks have a measly 2 percent cash on hand for the demand deposits (and that's being generous), the lines will form.

Now, start showing pictures on CNN of nervous depositors lining up outside banks, closed ATM machines, bankers wetting their pants, and stock footage of the (literal) printing press at the Bureau of Engraving.

When do the Japanese start asking for their money? Or better yet, how?

The value of physical FRN's (what are given to skittish depositors) will soar. The value of electronic FRN's (what are given to the Japanese) will plummet.

I've always believed that the price of gold will drop (a tad) when the sheeple wake up, (due to the 'scarcity' of FRN's) and when the supply of FRN's starts getting back towards demand, then gold will skyrocket.

My question to everyone is how will gold play with this Japanese angle? And how will this play out if/when these events happen simultaneously?

-Le grand vache
Aragorn III
SteveH, The Stranger, Goldfly, and turbohawg: Oil, Gold, & the Dollar
Unanticipated projects eclipsed my original intent to offer some thoughts to SteveH (3/23/99; 15:07:41MDT - Msg ID:3744), and so much has transpired since that I cannot possibly deliver that which was intended with a hope of aiding the general understanding. I will press on and hope for the best.

The first of several points raised by Steve's friend is of the Fed "orchestrating and colluding". So it would seem. Perhaps. Perhaps instead, "They work hard so you don't have to!" Banks predate central banks. Ancestor banks in the U.S. set new standards of wayward practice, visiting much ruin on unsuspecting or ill-informed customers. Fractional reserve lending has always been the downfall, even as the dollar was defined in gold! The primary evil perpetrated by Congress with the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 was not so much the creation of the Federal Reserve System of Banks--the immediate purpose of which was to bring order to the chaotic free-for-all of fly-by-night banks across the land. No, the primary evil was escalation of the degree to which fractional reserve lending could occur--even on a gold standard--for now the Government itself had a lender from which it could borrow money that was not there. You see were this has led. Do not cry overmuch for Nixon's action in 1971 to end the last vestige of the Gold Standard. Such a Standard was, and ever will be, meaningless if concurrent with fractional lending.

The finger must point in all directions to find the blame. Any bank alone or united is powerless. It takes a borrower to complete the fraud. Why do they not insist on hard money? Why does the Govt allow fractional reserve lending? The Fed need not create a dime. Your Main Street banks create more than enough to ensure our eventual ruin.

There are many that do not favor Fed Chairman Greenspan. Surely this view is held by those that see the future and know that the dollar is not in it. You are the brilliant minority, my friends. The Fed does not serve at the pleasure of the brilliant, for the brilliant can surely look to their own affairs. No, the Fed serves the least common denominator...the unsuspecting, the ill-informed customer of the dollar institutions. Ask yourself, would the U.S. population be better served by a currency that traveled the path of the Ruble, the Sucre, the Real, the Peso, the Lira?

Savings in the bank can do no better than suffer the ravages of fractional lending, but your brilliance must allow you the recognition that it could also suffer much, much worse! That day will come. Your frustration is that your brilliance was early to recognize the end of game, and preparations left you out of the easy money on Wall Street. Don't be suddenly stupid. Gold right now IS the EASY MONEY!!

Chairman Greenspan, appointed during the Reagan administration is exactly the man a gold heart would want at the helm. Do not blame him for the inflationary effects of fractional lending. Credit him instead for using his gold heart ideals to attain a perspective and understanding that has maintained a semblance of value to an instrument that is being propelled headlong into oblivion through forces quite beyond the Chairman's control. Remember, the finger points in all directions in the assignation of blame. Yet in the face of the many agents of the dollar's demise, Mr. Greenspan stands as the option proposed by our good host at USAGOLD--a one man substitute for a gold standard. And remember, even a gold standard itself does not hold up in the face of fractional lending and exuberant markets. Witness 1929. I have nothing to gain in an attempt to defend the Chairman, except to prevent the unnecessary delays of my fellow knights tilting at windmills, or slaying the ally on the field of battle. I say again, your brilliance has indeed served you well, for gold is the easy money. Look nowhere else.

What is OPEC up to? What is the euro for?

Surely you are not so inclined to think your brilliance is not distributed around the world? You have an exit strategy--gold. Or rather, a Survival strategy. You are not alone. But recognize that national concerns are not the same as individuals' concerns. You have options not available to nations, and nations have options not available to you. The euro. In the past I have explored the many sides of the euro, some as pure exercise. "This is not the gold standard of your fathers" I've said before. This remains true. It shall be a contractual currency, unencumbered as is the dollar with debt that cannot be serviced. Yet in its euro price gold will display its true value.

What folly is it to suggest that a body is impoverished that commands a position atop a commodity needed the world over. Impoverished, no. In dire need of contract renegotiation to undo past mismanagement? Yes. Much like the United States renegotiated its debts in 1971 by saying "no more gold shall be paid to settle accumulated dollar-denominated debts". Dollars at that point became very cheap and easy to come by. OPEC is in the position to do likewise, though they will say "no more oil will be paid to settle accumulated dollar-denominated debts". By pricing oil in euros, the U.S. will find that euros are not easy to obtain as the U.S. is a net importing nation. And what more need will any net exporting nation have for U.S. Dollars as balance of trade when oil requires euros? Suddenly, the outside world is not eager to accept any few dollars for its real products. Exchange rate of the dollar falls, and all countries use these newly cheap dollars to settle all accumulated dollar-denominated debts. That is the exit strategy of nations. The U.S. will be at a disadvantage until it achieves meaningful balance of trade. It cannot continue to print its primary export value. This will not kill the future demand for oil. The world is a much larger place than 50 united States, and any group of nations would be equally happy to rise to the occasion to be the fat consumer of of last resort.

These are the few remaining days of easy money. I suggest you use them wisely. Here's a hint...gold is the universal currency. Here's another hint...

got gold?
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye!
Now appearing at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinion:
"The Financial Bubble" by Rep. Ron Paul, Texas,
as adapted from remarks from Congressman Paul on February 2, 1999, at the opening of the first session of the 106th Congress.

"The Constitution is clear that the Congress has responsibility for guaranteeing the value of the currency. No authority has ever been given to create a central bank. Creating money out of thin air is counterfeiting, even when done by a bank that the Congress tolerates..."

Please follow the Gilded Opinion links from the USAGOLD HomePage, or be transported directly there--

http://www.usagold.com/RonPaul.html

Discussion is welcome upon your safe return.
SteveH
April gold now...
$284.10.

I am in awe Aragorn III. I passed it along to my friend.

Penny Nichols
Aragorn III post
Aragorn III
Your message 3827 was a thing of beauty! Thank you!
Penny
Clint H
A heart felt thanks
Aragorn lll, Aristotle, Peter Asher
Many accolades are due for your postings this AM. All we can do is say thanks.
NORTH OF 49
Aragorn III post 3827
Your analysis offered in the subject post will be a tuff act to follow indeed. Thankyou for making the day (ok, night here) somewhat brighter. For this layman, to be able to understand the whole picture, it is a chore, to be sure. You Sir, have moved the process forward by light years.

I can hardly wait for our new squire over here to arise and read it also. He won't be worth a hoot for anything else for the rest of the day, but that's the price of progress.

Thanks again

No49
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Down in Quiet Trading
MARKET UPDATE (3/25/99) Gold dipped this morning subdued rather than stimulated
by the bombing in Kosovo, and a report that jobless claims had reached a 25 year low.
Reuters reports that book-squaring in Japan and India had a dulling effect on the gold market
and that "looming Islamic, Christian and Jewish holidays were draining liquidity from the
markets and dealing operations in the major centers for physical gold demand."

One area of interest to gold traders worldwide as the Balkan crisis ramps up will be Russia's
reaction to the NATO attacks. Russia has several IMF loan payments coming due in the near
future and Treasury Secretary Rubin has consistently lobbied for further loans to Russia to
pay the old loans. If Russia should decide to retaliate to the Kosovo operations by refusing
to pay or negotiate on new loans, it could ignite a new round of the Asian contagion malaise.
Russia has already reneged on grain loans to Canada -- so default is not an out-of-bounds
consideration for economic policy makers.

There wasn't much in the way of gold news this morning. One trader commented that today
has been the quietest day in the gold market so far this year.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if warranted.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
Gandalf the White
WOW -- What a day at the USAGOLD FORUM !
Thank you all --- Esp. thou Aragorn III
This is GREAT ! Keep the education coming. Jump in here MK and expand the great day.
<;-)
Peter Asher
Robin E-mailed this to Michael & he requested we post it
Speech by
Charlton Heston at Harvard


Editor's Note: Charlton Heston
addressed the topic 'Winning the
Cultural War' at the Harvard Law School
Forum, February 16, 1999. Here is the
text of that speech:



By Charlton Heston

I remember my son when he was 5,
explaining to his kindergarten class what
his father did for a living. "My Daddy," he
said, "pretends to be people." There have
been quite a few of them. Prophets from
the Old and New Testaments, a couple of
Christian saints, generals of various
nationalities and different centuries,
several kings, three American presidents,
a French cardinal and two geniuses,
including Michelangelo.

If you want the ceiling re-painted I'll do
my best. There always seem to be a lot of
different fellows up here. I'm never sure
which one of them gets to talk. Right now,
I guess I'm the guy.

As I pondered our visit tonight it struck
me: if my Creator gave me the gift to
connect you with the hearts and minds of
those great men, then I want to use that
same gift now to re-connect you with your
own sense of liberty ... your own freedom
of thought ... your own compass for what is
right.

Dedicating the memorial at Gettysburg,
Abraham Lincoln said of America, "We
are now engaged in a great Civil War,
testing whether this nation or any nation so
conceived and so dedicated can long
endure."

Those words are true again. I believe that
we are again engaged in a great civil war,
a cultural war that's about to hijack your
birthright to think and say what resides in
your heart. I fear you no longer trust the
pulsing lifeblood of liberty inside you ...
the stuff that made this country rise from
wilderness into the miracle that it is. Let
me back up. About a year ago I became
president of the National Rifle
Association, which protects the right to
keep and bear arms. I ran for office, I was
elected, and now I serve ... I serve as a
moving target for the media who've called
me everything from "ridiculous" and
"duped" to a "brain-injured, senile, crazy
old man." I know ... I'm pretty old ... but I
sure thank the Lord ain't senile. As I have
stood in the crosshairs of those who target
Second Amendment freedoms, I've
realized that firearms are not the only
issue. No, it's much, much bigger than that.
I've come to understand that a cultural war
is raging across our land, in which, with
Orwellian fervor, certain acceptable
thoughts and speech are mandated.

For example, I marched for civil rights
with Dr. King in 1963 -- long before
Hollywood found it fashionable. But when
I told an audience last year that white
pride is just as valid as black pride or red
pride or anyone else's pride, they called
me a racist.

I've worked with brilliantly talented
homosexuals all my life. But when I told
an audience that gay rights should extend
no further than your rights or my rights, I
was called a homophobe.

I served in World War II against the Axis
powers. But during a speech, when I drew
an analogy between singling out innocent
Jews and singling out innocent gun
owners, I was called an anti-Semite.

Everyone I know knows I would never
raise a closed fist against my country. But
when I asked an audience to oppose this
cultural persecution, I was compared to
Timothy McVeigh.

From Time magazine to friends and
colleagues, they're essentially saying,
"Chuck, how dare you speak your mind.
Peter Asher
Cach limits, hope we get the rest here, Start, on post below
From Time magazine to friends and
colleagues, they're essentially saying,
"Chuck, how dare you speak your mind.
You are using language not authorized for
public consumption!"

But I am not afraid. If Americans believed
in political correctness, we'd still be King
George's boys-subjects bound to the
British crown.

In his book, "The End of Sanity," Martin
Gross writes that "blatantly irrational
behavior is rapidly being established as
the norm in almost every area of human
endeavor. There seem to be new customs,
new rules, new anti-intellectual theories
regularly foisted on us from every
direction. Underneath, the nation is roiling.
Americans know something, without a
name is undermining the nation, turning the
mind mushy when it comes to separating
truth from falsehood and right from wrong.
And they don't like it."

Let me read a few examples. At Antioch
college in Ohio, young men seeking
intimacy with a coed must get verbal
permission at each step of the process
from kissing to petting to final copulation
... all clearly spelled out in a printed
college directive.

In New Jersey, despite the death of several
patients nationwide who had been infected
by dentists who had concealed their AIDS
--- the state commissioner announced that
health providers who are HIV-positive
need not. .. need not ... tell their patients
that they are infected.

At William and Mary, students tried to
change the name of the school team "The
Tribe" because it was supposedly insulting
to local Indians, only to learn that authentic
Virginia chiefs truly like the name.

In San Francisco, city fathers passed an
ordinance protecting the rights of
transvestites to cross-dress on the job, and
for transsexuals to have separate toilet
facilities while undergoing sex change
surgery.

In New York City, kids who don't speak a
word of Spanish have been placed in
bilingual classes to learn their three R's in
Spanish solely because their last names
sound Hispanic.

At the University of Pennsylvania, in a
state where thousands died at Gettysburg
opposing slavery, the president of that
college officially set up segregated
dormitory space for black students.

Yeah, I know ... that's out of bounds now.
Dr. King said "Negroes." Jimmy Baldwin
and most of us on the March said "black."
But it's a no-no now.

For me, hyphenated identities are
awkward ... particularly
"Native-American." I'm a Native
American, for God's sake. I also happen to
be a blood-initiated brother of the
Miniconjou Sioux. On my wife's side, my
grandson is a 13th-generation Native
American ... with a capital letter on
"American."

Finally, just last month ... David Howard,
head of the Washington D.C. Office of
Public Advocate, used the word
"niggardly" while talking to colleagues
about budgetary matters. Of course,
'niggardly' means stingy or scanty. But
within days Howard was forced to
publicly apologize and resign.

As columnist Tony Snow wrote: "David
Howard got fired because some people in
public employ were morons who (a) didn't
know the meaning of 'niggardly,' (b) didn't
know how to use a dictionary to discover
the meaning, and (c) actually demanded
that he apologize for their ignorance."

What does all of this mean? It means that
telling us what to think has evolved into
telling us what to say, so telling us what to
do can't be far behind. Before you claim to
be a champion of free thought, tell me:
Why did political correctness originate on
America's campuses? And why do you
continue to tolerate it? Why do you, who're
supposed to debate ideas, surrender to
their suppression?

Let's be honest. Who here thinks your
professors can say what they really
believe? It scares me to death, and should
scare you too, that the superstition of
political correctness rules the halls of
reason.

You are the best and the brightest. You,
here in the fertile cradle of American
academia, here in the castle of learning on
the Charles River, you are the cream. But I
submit that you, and your counterparts
across the land, are the most socially
conformed and politically silenced
generation since Concord Bridge.

And as long as you validate that ... and
abide it ... you are-by your grandfathers'
standards-cowards. Here's another
example. Right now at more than one
major university, Second Amendment
scholars and researchers are being told to
shut up about their findings or they'll lose
their jobs. Why? Because their research
findings would undermine big-city mayor's
pending lawsuits that seek to extort
hundreds of millions of dollars from
firearm manufacturers.

I don't care what you think about guns. But
if you are not shocked at that, I am shocked
at you. Who will guard the raw material of
unfettered ideas, if not you? Who will
defend the core value of academia, if you
supposed soldiers of free thought and
expression lay down your arms and plead,
"Don't shoot me."

If you talk about race, it does not make you
a racist. If you see distinctions between the
genders, it does not make you a sexist. If
you think critically about a denomination,
it does not make you anti-religion. If you
accept but don't celebrate homosexuality,
it does not make you a homophobe.

Don't let America's universities continue
to serve as incubators for this rampant
epidemic of new McCarthyism. But what
can you do? How can anyone prevail
against such pervasive social subjugation?

The answer's been here all along. I learned
it 36 years ago, on the steps of the Lincoln
Memorial in Washington D.C., standing
with Dr. Martin Luther King and two
hundred thousand people.

You simply ... disobey. Peaceably, yes.
Respectfully, of course. Nonviolently,
absolutely. But when told how to think or
what to say or how to behave, we don't.
We disobey social protocol that stifles and
stigmatizes personal freedom.

I learned the awesome power of
disobedience from Dr. King ... who
learned it from Gandhi, and Thoreau and
Jesus and every other great man who led
those in the right against those with the
might.

Disobedience is in our DNA. We feel
innate kinship with that Disobedient spirit
that tossed tea into Boston Harbor, that
sent Thoreau to jail, that refused to sit in
the back of the bus, that protested a war in
Vietnam.

In that same spirit, I am asking you to
disavow cultural correctness with massive
disobedience of rogue authority, social
directives and onerous law that weaken
personal freedom.

But be careful ... it hurts. Disobedience
demands that you put yourself at risk. Dr.
King stood on lots of balconies. You must
be willing to be humiliated ... to endure the
modern-day equivalent of the police dogs
at Montgomery and the water Cannons at
Selma. You must be willing to experience
discomfort. I'm not Complaining, but my
own decades of social activism have taken
their toll on me. Let me tell you a story.

A few years back I heard about a rapper
named Ice-T who was selling a CD called
"Cop Killer" celebrating ambushing and
murdering police officers. It was being
marketed by none other than Time/Warner,
the biggest entertainment conglomerate in
the world. Police across the country were
outraged. Rightfully so-at least one had
been murdered. But Time/Warner was
stonewalling because the CD was a cash
cow for them, and the media were
tiptoeing around it because the rapper was
black. I heard Time/Warner had a
stockholders meeting scheduled in Beverly
Hills. I owned some shares at the time, so
I decided to attend.

What I did there was against the advice of
my family and colleagues. I asked for the
floor. To a hushed room of a thousand
average American stockholders, I simply
read the full lyrics of "Cop Killer" --
every vicious, vulgar, instructional word.


"I GOT MY 12 GAUGE SAWED OFF
I GOT MY HEADLIGHTS TURNED OFF

I'm ABOUT TO BUST SOME SHOTS
OFF
I'm ABOUT TO DUST SOME COPS
OFF..."

It got worse, a lot worse. I won't read the
rest of it to you. But trust me, the room was
a sea of shocked, frozen, blanched faces.
The Time/Warner executives squirmed in
their chairs and stared at their shoes. They
hated me for that. Then I delivered another
volley of sick lyric brimming with racist
filth, where Ice-T fantasizes about
sodomizing two 12-year old nieces of Al
and Tipper Gore. "SHE PUSHED HER
BUTT AGAINST MY ...."

Well, I won't do to you here what I did to
them. Let's just say I left the room in
echoing silence. When I read the lyrics to
the waiting press corps, one of them said
"We can't print that." "I know," I replied,
"but Time/Warner "s selling it."

Two months later, Time/Warner
terminated Ice-T's contract. I'll never be
offered another film by Warners, or get a
good review from Time magazine. But
disobedience means you must be willing to
act, not just talk.

When a mugger sues his elderly victim for
defending herself ... jam the switchboard
of the district attorney's office. When your
university is pressured to lower standards
until 80 percent of the students graduate
with honors ... choke the halls of the board
of regents. When an 8-year-old boy pecks
a girl's cheek on the playground and gets
hauled into court for sexual harassment ...
march on that school and block its
doorways. When someone you elected is
seduced by political power and betrays
you ... petition them, oust them, banish
them. When Time magazine's cover
portrays millennium nuts as deranged,
crazy Christians holding a cross as it did
last month ... boycott their magazine and
the products it advertises.

So that this nation may long endure, I urge
you to follow in the hallowed footsteps of
the great disobediences of history that
freed exiles, founded religions, defeated
tyrants, and yes, in the hands of an aroused
rabble in arms and a few great men, by
God's grace, built this country.

If Dr. King were here, I think he would
agree.

Thank you.
USAGOLD
An Eerie Calm....For Gandalf, a wonderful and wizardrous member of this Table Round
The one thing I find striking about these markets today is the prevailing eerie calm -- as if the fact that we have gone to war in the Balkans is a side event of no consequence. Or perhaps the calm in the markets has to do with the fact that investors and professionals do not know how to react.

At the moment we have the euro tracking sideways. The prevailing wisdom is that it would tank as a result of the NATO air strikes. The dollar is sideways as well. The prevailing wisdom is that it would jump higher. Gold, too, is looking for direction, not reacting as some might think it should. The stock market is reacting to war the way it reacts to everything else -- by going up. (Wall St. can thank the investment gods for the creation of the mutual fund and the concentration of the nation's investment wealth in the hands of a few promoters who never saw a stock market they didn't like. In essence, it's buy the dips or get fired. I'd buy the dips too. Remember Honest Jeff Vinik.)

Yesterday, I had the good fortune to discuss the Balkan situation with an erudite Hungarian who came to this country in 1956 when Russian tanks rolled into that country to quell an attempt at self-determination. He called to get my read on the situation. His feel was that gold might not have been moving yesterday but that it would once the Europeans understood there would be economic ramifications to the U.S. action.

What is lost in all this is something I brought up in this morning's report: The Russian Reaction and it is in the Russian reaction where the complicated economics of the situation fester. The Russian News Agency Itar-Tass reports this reaction in the realm of the Bear:

"PRESIDENT YELTSIN ordered an end to Russia's co- operation with Nato yesterday because of its air strikes against Yugoslavia, saying he was "deeply outraged". Years of understanding between Russia and the West appeared to be in jeopardy as Moscow systematically dismantled its carefully constructed links with Nato.

If the conflict grows, Mr Yeltsin said in a statement, it would give Russia the right to take "adequate measures, including of a military character, to ensure its own and general European security". Nato's operation was "outright aggression" a "violation of all norms of international law".

Russia's military commanders pledged to raise their units' state of readiness on the first news of the start of bombing raids. Nato faced a "second Vietnam", this time in Europe, one warned."

In another report, Yeltsin was quoted as saying "Russian has a number of extreme measures in store, but we decided not to use them so far"

If Bill Clinton had deliberately wanted to thump the war drum in Yeltsin's ear, he couldn't have done a better job. The U.S. goes into the Balkans to "save face"; what will the Russians do now to "save face." In my view, Europe could very well be the first to recognize the degree to which the Balkans will affect the world economy, and they could very well go to gold. (Already air travel and freedom of movement has been curtailed in Euroland, as the atmosphere of war settles again across the 20th century's greatest battleground.) If they do, the shorts on Wall Street will have their hands full. Will Russia enter the war directly? We think not but they will make certain that the NATO involvement becomes protracted if there is not a quick resolution. On my way to the office this morning, I heard a report on the radio that rumors float Europe that there will be a massive ground assault in the Balkans by NATO troops. Perhaps, that is where the comment about a European Viet Nam has its root.

What if Yeltsin decided to retaliate economically. All he would have to do is default on the upcoming IMF loan payments and it would throw Wall Street and the world economy into chaos. Mr. Clinton plays a dangerous game, indeed.

As it is the markets for now probably see this as a re-run of other Clinton escapades -- a quick show of force, tomahawk them good and hard, and then withdraw. But is that what's really going on?

As I go to "Post Message", gold is recovering -- down now only 70� after being off as much as $2.00 on the day and silver has gone positive. Crude oil has also gone positive.

I will leave further discussion in your capable hands, my fellow goldmeisters. After a very quiet morning, the return phone messages are starting to pile up again.

We watch this Balkan War together.
USAGOLD
Thank you Robin And Peter.
I asked that you present Mr. Heston's speech here so that young people who frequent this site, and who are the most directly affected by the politically correct oppression, can see the thinking of an elder in our community who can share some of his experiences and the world vision derived thereof. By this, they now have in their possession a well-honed argument to use in their battle with the New McCarthism. My compliments to Mr. Heston on an important speech, and my apologies, to you, my friends, for the posting trouble.

Parents of late high school and college age children are encouraged to pass the speech along, or make a copy and place discreetly on their child's study desk. There is no more important understanding of what we are as Americans than to know that we have the right to free speech, free thought and reasonable action. They ( and we ) do not have to succumb to others doing their thinking for them (us).
TownCrier
Nice one, Aragorn. Russia would like to get in on that deal.
Moscow-March 25-FWN/UPI--Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny
Primakov says International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief
Michel Camdessus will arrive in Moscow on Saturday for a
three-day visit to discuss the possible release of loans to Russia.

Primakov said he had spoken with Camdessus and that
"everything is fine," indicating the sensitive loan
negotiations were on track despite the Kosovo crisis and
Russia's strong opposition to Washington's decision tolaunch air strikes.

Primakov had been due to meet Camdessus in the United
States this week, but the talks were called off when the
Russian premier abruptly canceled his trip Tuesday night
over the imminent NATO attack on Yugoslavia, returning to Moscow.

Russia desperately needs to receive several billion
dollars in IMF loans to pay interest on its foreign debt and
bolster its cash-strapped treasury.

Economists fear Russia will default on its foreign debt
within weeks if the IMF fails to approve disbursement of the
loan, frozen since last August's financial meltdown in Russia.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Peter Asher
On the other hand
Having squandered their productive capability and needing, not just relief from debt,but goods and services from the still working economy of the west. ---- "We have extreme measures in reserve...but we have
decided not to use them. We are above that. On the
moral level we are superior to the Americans,"
President Boris Yeltsin said.

Primakov confirmed that the head of the International
Monetary Fund would visit Moscow this weekend
for more talks on further loans and told a government
meeting Russia would not allow its indignation over
the air strikes to alter its economic policy or do
serious harm to relations with the West".
Peter Asher
Crier, Well Met!
Our two posts read perfectly in sequence, top to bottom
TownCrier
Bridge (& FWN again) NY Precious Metals Review
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 25--Apr gold settled down $1 at $283.10 per ounce after slipping
lower to equal last week's 6 1/2 month low of $282. "It's not operating under
great volume, but there's a recovery in stocks and strength in the dollar," said
James Steel, analyst at Refco. He noted that the "vigorous stock market rally is
robbing gold of any strength." Also, disappointment with gold's lack of
reaction to the Kosovo crisis was possibly contributing to the selling, he
added.

However, one trader said flatly that there is "zero correlation to the Dow
and political events," with another agreeing and suggesting gold fell on
"Apr-Jun rollover and a little bit of producer selling."

Steel adds that "gold hasn't recovered from the Chirac-Clinton statements
last week. Nothing since then given reason to buy gold." US president Clinton
urged the International Monetary Fund to sell some of its gold last week to help
poor nations, helping push Apr gold to a 6 1/2 month low. French president Jacques
Chirac had also called on the IMF to sell some of its gold. Traders noted that
Apr gold continues to see strong support at today's $282 low.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Goldfly
Mooski- I like AEL too......

But you meant he is "Good"???? Yes?

GF
Peter Asher
9 Hours and Counting
This production-advocating, freeloader-chastising, tax-loop-hole-hunting, free enterprise-praising writer, is going to be ENTITLED to the dole. Still alive at 65!!

Hey Gandalf, are you already there? What's it like to get a little back?
Gandalf the White
Peter, How I look at IT
I paid into it when $ were dear. NOW, I look at it as over three gold pieces a month, and hold them dearly. LOVING IT !
<;-)
USAGOLD
Peter and Towncrier....
It seems the early reports of Yeltsin's comments were deficient by a sentence or two...a sentence or two that make all the difference. These matters remain far from settled in my view -- despite the comments from both sides. Perhaps the Balkans War assures that Russia gets it loan; perhaps it assures default. Perhaps it assures no resolution. No doubt it complicates the matter. Obviously, time is of the essence. It was only a few days ago that Primakov made the most famous U-turn in diplomatic history. Camdessus now plays mountain to Primakov's Mohammed.
Gandalf the White
Happy BIRTHDAY Peter !!
Maybe Goldfly can whipup a poem for all of us to celibrate your #65 ! Things just get better ! CONGRATULATIONS
<;-)
The Stranger
Happy Bithday, PETER!
This explains the wisdom.
The Stranger
OOPS!
Birthday
Peter Asher
Stranger, Gandalf
Thanks for the well wishes. Are you familiar with "The Spoon River Anthology" by Edgar Lee Masters? It's a fictional collection of epitaphs from gravestones, in a fictional version of Lincoln's home town, as I recall. It is also performed as a musical play, with actors getting up and reciting a particular character's cognition, as he looks back on his life from the grave. Each epitaph is a paragraph, with the last phrase being a philosophical one liner. The show has some beautiful folk songs, one of which I feel is the greatest thing ever written about marriage. Maybe you've heard it.

Oh the river is wide,
I can't get o'er.
And neither have I,
The wings to fly.
Give me a boat,
That can carry two.
And I shall sail,
My love and I.

On Masters' own grave stone is written the closing lines of one of his characters, "I pass you world, like an orange to a child". I think of that line often when one of you on the Forum produces one of your great posts.

Stranger: Your remark brought this all to mind because my favorite line from Masters' work is, "Genius equals wisdom plus youth."
The Stranger
I leaned my back against an oak...
Yes, Peter, I do know that song. As a matter of fact, I often sing it while playing my guitar. It is a favorite of mine and of my wife's.

I did not know about Masters or his tombstone before this. I just turned 51 on Monday and I do sometimes already think about the act which he likens to passing an orange. I used to think a man's purpose ought to be to leave his mark on the world. But as I've aged, I've wondered if perhaps it should be just the opposite. This old "orange" is so close to perfection, I wonder if one shouldn't clean up after himself, as though his life had been nothing more than a week in the forest.

As for the "child" I have raised three of them, all girls. As hokey as it sounds, they are my real gold.

I hope your life is every bit as wonderful as it sounds.
Jade
Todays Gold/Oil Exchange Rate

Oil in USD per Barrel [Avg. for Yr]�.Date�.Gold Price [Avg. for Yr]�.Gold/Oil Exchange Rate [Barrels of Oil per 1 OZ Gold]

24�..1984�360�15
22�..1985�317�14.4
14�..1986�367�26.2
15�..1987�446�29.7
14�..1988�436�31.1
15�..1989�381�25.4
17�..1990�383�22.5
15�..1991�362�24.1
14�..1992�343�24.5
13�..1993�359�27.6
12.5 1994�384�30.7
13�..1995�384�29.5
14.5.1996�387�26.6
14�..1997�325�23.2
13�..1998�305�23.46
Following are averages for Months
11.5..Dec98.297�25.8
12.8..Jan99�287�22.4
12.3..Feb99�287�23.3
EVENT [Manipulation downward of Goldand recent rise in Oil]
15.25.Mar99�282-284�18.6..18.5

*** 15.7�. 3/25/99�283�.18.02 ***
Today the Gold/Oil Exchange improved further in Oils favor at 1-18. The last time this exchange rate was this lopsided was back in 1985. If the exchange rate were at its "very most" recent average of "23" [where it should be], then Gold would be trading at 361 today. When this massive short position unwinds, Gold will take off like a space shuttle loaded with nitro. I've got my Gold, and you better believe it's the physical kind.

Peter Asher
Stranger, re # 3854
No, no, no, not hokey at all. The philosopher L. R. Hubbard, whose massive works are based on the knowledge that we go from life to life as the same spiritual individual, losing the "carbon-oxygen- motor" body, and its incredible organic computer brain in the process. When I have the thoughts you have just expressed, I think of this quote, "What is death after all, but the loss of one's friends."
Richard, Oregon
God Bless America!!
SteveH (3/24/99; 21:21:47MDT - Msg ID:3818)
Thanks for you input. It helped to clear things for me. I've found a local dealer who beats national dealers price plus you save any shipping and handling charges. He also gives a quantity discount. It PAYS to shop around (you may be able to buy an extra tenth or two).

Regarding reporting requirements - according to MK's ABCs, 25 oz or more in Krugerrands, Mex Onzas, Platinum bars, Maple Leafs. 100 oz in Palladium bars, 1000 oz in silver bars, and 1 kilo (32.15 troy oz) in gold bars. Also $1k in 90% silver bags.

I don't know if you wanted all that but it was interesting to review again for me.

Every day I take in fiat $s in exchange for product. Ho, hum.... Today I traded fiat $s for Amer GOLD Eagles. What a deal! Probably the ONLY thing you can buy from the US government and get MORE than you pay for. Isn't life grand!! God bless America!!
TownCrier
World Gold Council "Facts...Gold...Facts"
New WGC advertisement focuses on February's "Gold Demand Trends" Fourth Quarter/Year-end issue. The ad ran in The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Toronto Globe & Mail, Australian Financial Review & South African Business Day on Thursday, 25 March 1999.

(This ad was third in a series)

1998 was a year marked by a growing appreciation for the role of gold as a monetary asset. Around the globe last year, demand for gold as an investment recorded strong gains.

* In the United States, private investment in gold bullion coins grew spectacularly to a record 75 tonnes - more than doubling 1997's level.
* US gold purchasers cited financial-market volatility, rising concern over the Y2K computer bug, and increasing investor recognition of the importance of portfolio diversification.
* In Japan, the "Big Bang" financial reforms triggered renewed interest in gold's value in portfolio diversification - resulting in a 29% annual growth in investment demand.
* Demand for gold as an investment also grew in the world's emerging economies. In India, where gold is one of the principal forms of holding private wealth, demand grew 11% over 1997 - marking the fourth consecutive year that gold demand set a record high.
* And in the Asian countries hardest hit by the financial crisis earlier in 1998 (including Thailand, Indonesia and Korea), gradual recovery brought strong growth in bar and coin demand - up 21% for the year.

The story of the past decade has been all about the accumulation of wealth. The story now is about the preservation of that wealth. Increasingly, investors around the world are turning to gold.

Source: Gold Demand Trends - No. 26, World Gold Council
25 March 1999
Copyright � 1999 World Gold Council
All Rights Reserved--Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission
Richard, Oregon
Happy Birthday Peter!
Peter A - Happy Birthday! May you have many, many more! Gold(en) years, yes!

This is a memorable day. In addition to your 65th birthday, my neighbor is eighty today. My wife's dad past away today in 1986, and I joined the Army in 1965. Many memories for this day! I hope yours was GREAT!
SteveH
Friend of SteveH (has a nice ring, no) says...
[note: I passed along your comments and friend returned this]

"This is an education. I understand and agree that fractional lending,
regardless of standard, is a house of cards that will ultimately collapse.
I also believe that Greenspan is doing his best to maintain order in the
face of chaos. But, how can the euro be "unencumbered by debt" ? Every
"euro" nation is deeply in debt, now denominated in euros rather than lire,
francs, etc. So, if the value of the dollar relative to world currencies
declines, won't that mean that U.S. goods exported to Europe and Asia will
no longer be as expensive? Is not the fact that the U.S. is a net importer
of goods a function of the high cost of U.S. goods in other countries as
well as the relatively low cost of imported goods here? When the dust
settles, doesn't it follow that the U.S. will become a net exporter? And
barter/trade predates banks. Do you really think that ultimately you will
be paid for services and purchase goods with gold? Or, do you think that in
the period before the dust settles, you will sell your gold for euros or
dollars?"
NORTH OF 49
Many Happy Returns Peter Asher
After reading your thoughts (no, I am not clairvoyant) for several months now, I see you as a kind and gentle soul. A romantic, a philoshopher, and an individual not satisfied with the status quo. You have taught me much. Although, until now, I was not aware of your age, I suspected from your posts that you had witnessed more that most. You have given me inspiration for the future. I do not have the benefit of the years of exposure to the world of finance--in retrospect, it seems I've spent most of mine slapping mosquitos, or trudging through mud. I don't regret it, but it seems it has taken it's toll on my family. I calculate this "frontierism" has cost me close to a third of my life with my family. That is a hardship in any language. Even now, as Russia devorces itself from NATO, being a citizen of one of the attacking nations in Kosovo, I wonder what my chances will be of a sane (if at all) departure from this land of such diversified cultures. I can only hope for the best. It's not like I haven't been here before. Evacuated out of Iran in '78, eascaped through Jordon from Kuwait just as Saddam came blasting in, out of the Congo two years ago, just in front of the reble forces---now this. Used to be exciting, now---it just plain frightens me.
I's sorry if I'm off topic for a Gold Forum, but about three days ago, someone here (and I'm ashamed to say I can't remember who it was) stated they wanted to hear about our life's adventures. Well, this is mine--in the trenches so to speak. Believe me, whoever it was that stated "there are no athiests in foxholes" made the understatement of the decade!!

No49
SteveH
April gold now...
$283.40. Weekly chart shows $299 revised target out a few weeks, daily shows $294.50-$296 possible within seven to ten days. Still on track.

ET
Drugs and Kosovo

Everybody needs to read this story from the London Times. If this is indeed the case, corruption has reached epic proportions.

http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/03/24/timfgneur01012.html?1124027

ET
Goldfly
Peter....
Happy birthday! And many returns.....

Ok, but how old are you really? I mean, when I talk about something I did 10, 20, or 30 years ago, I stop short. There is no way it can be so! I'm still a teenager! (Yeah... yeah, that's it!)

You sound like you have too much on the ball to be ready to draw a pension.

BTW..... You mentioned L. Ron Hubbard. To save bandwith and not get WAY of subject; much of what I might want to say would probably be found here:

http://www.entheta.net

GF
Mooski
Goldfly
Hmmm... In retrospect, perhaps I am correct. (!) The scenario presented was awfully good. (And please note that it was at about 4am Omaha time when I posted it, and I have a 'day job' Uff da...

But as I was driving home from work, I started thinking about the future price swings of gold with AEL's scenario with Y2K and now Kosovo thrown in.

(Since I live in Omaha, I only had 20 minutes in my car to think about it... One nice thing about here, you can get anywhere to anywhere anytime in 20 minutes, including rush hour. Maybe Warren B doesn't like traffic either? :)))

Could we see FRN$200 American Eagles while the spot price is at it's (fixed) 280-290 price?

-Le Grand Vache
Aristotle
News & Views and gold coins
I received the March newsletter yesterday. Really enjoyed it!
Some of you may remember my discussion of my assorted gold savings. Looking at the coins pictured in the newsletter, and on the Products page here in the "Castle," I am painfully aware that I don't have any German Marks or Dutch Guilders. I am intrigued particulary by the Dutch Guilders.
Does anyone at the Round Table have any experience with these coins? I'm interested in their diameter compared with the others, and their hue. I'm sure you've all noticed that the alloys used from nation to nation and through time changes the gold-tone from yellow to brassy. I'm curious where these fall in the spectrum. Anyone?

Thanks in advance. I'm turning in. (Great post this a.m., A. III!) ---Aristotle

PS. Have a great birthday tomorrow, Peter! Hey Dr. Jones, glad to see you are regularly at the table! You should give our new young Goldhearted squire a chance to say Hi and share some thoughts! You are a fine mentor to have opened this door to him at such a fine age! His life will be richer for his independent thinking. Well done! out there over the cold waters of the Okhotsk.
Peter Asher
North of 49
If that item posted by ET is what's behind this, it's about money not national pride. Your job is probably much more important to them than international grudges
el St.One
Aristotle
The Holland gold coin (Dutch guilder)
10 Guilders called the Wilhelmina 1911-1933
Weight .2163 troy oz
21.6 karats .900 fine
Fine Gold content .1947 troy oz
Diameter 22.3 mm

Brit. Sovereign 22.0 mm
22 karat
.2354 troy oz fine gold

I have info on most coins but nothing on any German coins.
SteveH
April gold now...
$281.80. Sure making it hard to reach $299.00.
SteveH
April gold now...
$282.00 (now we're talking, not).

This is interesting.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An end to Federal Reserve Board?
Rep. Paul sponsors bill
to abolish economy's policeman

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Stephan Archer
� 1999 WorldNetDaily.com

In an attempt to spur on public discussion about how to handle impending dips in the nation's economy, Rep. Ron Paul, R-TX, introduced a bill that would repeal the Federal Reserve Act and abolish the Federal Reserve Board, an entity which the congressman blames for the negative aspects of the country's economic cycles.
H.R. 1148, which was referred to the Committee on Banking and Financial Services last week, has a general plan for the phasing out of the Federal Reserve Board. Although Paul doesn't believe the bill will pass, it is his hope that the bill will bring the problem of the country's national debt and the impending recession to the forefront of political discussion.

Paul believes that the current Federal Reserve Board system has been the reason for much of the nation's economic problems in the past, including the Great Depression, and wants to go back to a money system as described in the U.S. Constitution.

"I believe in sound money, that is, constitutional money," Paul said. "The Constitution says that we must have commodity money such as silver or gold. It's something that Alan Greenspan agreed with most of his life, and it's still something he has a lot of sympathy for." Paul went on to say that, although the nation is enjoying an economic "boom" now, it won't last forever. According to Paul, what happened to Japan's economy will eventually happen in the U.S., and the only way to fix it would be to get rid of the Federal Reserve Board that creates "money out of thin air."

Paul explained that, in the 1800s, the U.S. followed a gold standard that kept the nation's economy generally stable. Problems that did occur tended to creep in because the nation drifted away from the gold standard.

Now there is no gold standard, and money can literally be created "out of thin air" to bolster the economy. Paul referred to this creation of money as "counterfeiting" and believes that it will eventually come back to haunt the U.S. as the existing units of money lose their value thus creating inflation.

Paul also explained that government officials like the creation of money from nothing because it enables them to finance the deficit while bragging about a budget surplus in spite of the $113 billion which was added to the national debt last year.

"All this is, is the creation of a huge, financial bubble which is going to end," said Paul. "Someday, we'll have to address the subject of why this (financial) problem came to be."

If his bill were to pass, Paul told WorldNetDaily the government would be forced to get money by doing what most Americans do already -- save it. No more printing of paper money would be allowed because there wouldn't be any more Federal Reserve Board to do it. At the same time, the national debt would be reduced by half a trillion dollars since a good portion of the national debt is owed to the Federal Reserve Board which would have been abolished, he said.

Paul said that a good number of people across the nation already support the idea of a bill that would abolish the Federal Reserve Board, but he wants more people to be educated about the subject. Only when a majority of the U.S. population knows about the happenings within the Federal Reserve Board does he believe a bill such as H.R. 1148 will catch on and have a chance of being ratified by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Summarizing his belief about the issue, Paul said, "If one is interested in preventing all inflation, deflation, business cycles such as booms and busts, recessions, depressions and unemployment, you must get rid of the central management of money because it is the engine of the inflation which produces the recession."
turbohawg
up late catching up
It was great to see Cong Ron Paul's remarks posted in the Gilded Opinion. He's one of a kind in our philosophically-challenged Congress. For the Ayn Rand fans, you might be pleased to know that her thinking was/is a major influence in his life.

Peter, hope you had an awesome birthday ... Thanks for posting the speech by Heston, another unique individual.

Aragorn, very insightful ... as always, I enjoyed reading what you had to say.
turbohawg
SteveH
super article !! It appears Cong Paul is getting out in front of the inevitable bust, positioning the sound money/individual freedom argument to fill the void and counter the 'failure of capitalism' propaganda that is sure to occur.

You really don't sleep, do you ??
Penny Nichols
Aristotle- Foreign Gold Coins
Aristotle:
Since you expressed an interest in foreign gold, I think you would like the following story:

A few years back, I bought through the mail, a Roman gold SOLIDUS from the period 457-474 AD in mint condition. When it arrived it was so bright'shiny and blemish free that I immediately became suspicious and thought "they did it to me again".

I then called one of the most prestigious coin dealers in the country and asked to speak with an expert grader. When we were connected, I said " I bought from another firm (not yours) the coins described above, but it was so good that I want to know if you think that it could be genuine or is some guy in New Jersey banging them out?"

He chuckled and said no, it is genuine and the reason for it is that in those days an army had to carry coins with them to pay the soldiers. They did not pay by check or direct deposit. Very often the emperor had to have new coins minted for the campaign. When they prepared to go into battle, they buried the treasure chest and if they lost the battle, the location of the treaury very often also got lost.

Generations later, someone is excavating for a cellar, well, etc. or we come around with metal detectors and VOILA!
Penny
The Stranger
North of 49 and Friend of Steve H
Northy-Hang in there, Dr. Jones. You are not alone!

FOSH-Great first (indirect) post. So far, I agree with your reasoning. Of course, we don't really need the dollar to achieve worthlessness to be rewarded for our gold. We just need a little inflation. In a world afflicted with all sorts of overcapacity, this alone may be a tall order. But we look at the rapid growth of money stock, and we expect things will turn our way before long.
PH in LA
Check this out!
This guy is very good at what he does! His predictions have been right on lately.


Date: Fri Mar 26 1999 10:05
rhody (LEASE RATES FOR FRI. MAR. 26 FROM MITSUI: Look out below!) ID#408236:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GOLD ( CHANGE )
1 MONTH 1.09% ( +.20 )
3 MONTH 1.10% ( +.25 )
6 MONTH 1.16% ( +.15 )
1 YEAR 1.63% ( +.05 )

THE BIG JUMP IN BOTH ONE AND 3 MONTH LEASES INDICATES A HUGE SHORT ATTACK ON GOLD. THESE PEOPLE ARE SO ARROGANT THEY ARE BORROWING 3 MONTH GOLD TO ASSIST THE ONSLAUGHT. LOOK OUT BELOW.

SILVER
1 MONTH 2.94% ( +.50 )
3 MONTH 3.25% ( - )
6 MONTH 4.06% ( - )
1 YEAR 4.53% ( - )

BECAUSE OF THE ONE MONTH JUMP IN SILVER LEASES YOU SILVERBUGS OUT THERE WILL BE HAPPY TO HEAR THAT SILVER HAS ALSO BEEN SINGLED OUT FOR SOME ATTENTION BY SHORTS TODAY. NOTICE THAT NO OTHER TERM SHOWED AN INCREASE. SINCE SILVER IS IN SHORT SUPPLY, THERE IS MORE HESITATION TO SHORT THIS PM. THERE IS SOMETHING VERY SERIOUS BREWING IN FINANCIAL MARKETS IF THE CABAL WOULD ORCHESTRATE THIS SORT OF CAMPAIGN.
Aristotle
el St. One and Penny
e.S.O.--thanks for the diameter and fineness specs. Very helpful.

Penny--great story. I imagine that SOLIDUS was fairly pricey. I've seen pictures and would love to have one! All my gold is as old as your coin is, but their SHAPES are not nearly as old! Gold is history, and the shapes tell the tale. ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report
MARKET UPDATE (3/26/99): Today's downtrend is a carryover from yesterday's
market action which was characterized by end of year book-squaring in India and Japan
along with essentially idle markets in most of the other gold centers due to various religious
and ethnic holidays coming up next week.

Mr. Insider tells us that traders were already bracing for "exaggerations in every small move
in the market." Another trader quoted by Reuters mused that this could be a bear trap. I
would not be surprised if this afternoon's closing reports contained references to major fund
short-selling in New York. One thing the short-siders do not want is a general conviction to
develop that the public will go to gold in the face of the Balkan War instead of the dollar.
Better to knock the price down now than let the momentum crowd begin to throw its weight
behind the yellow metal.

Too, if you read today's Reuters and Bridge reports (as well as other mainstream media) on
various markets, you will see that a determined effort is made to convince the public that
gold is not the "safe-haven" of choice. Rather, they say, (and you guessed it), U.S.
Treasuries is the place to go if you fear for the safety of your capital. All this effort to thwart
an inert yellow metal that our opponents say is a barbarous relic and just a commodity of no
real use to anybody. That being so, you have to wonder why all this blood, sweat and tears
is necessary.

The public, though, has a different view and that is what unnerves the Wall Street crowd and
the unquestioning financial press that lays at its feet -- and that's why all the propaganda is
necessary. Main Street is attracted to gold. Wall Street, the financial press, the politicians
and bureaucrats hate it -- as was so demonstrably apparent by the recent statements by
Clinton/Gore when they called for IMF gold sales "to help debt laden third world countries."
Today the Canadians joined the "Sell the IMF Gold Choir" -- and simply re-worded the
same tired rhetoric we heard from Clinton/Gore a few weeks ago. So it goes, as it has gone
for quite some time. It will be interesting to see what happens in the gold market as the
repercussions from the Balkans flow through the markets. As it is the euro and gold are both
getting clobbered in early trading.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if warranted.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
USAGOLD
As promised....Fund Selling...Please see Today's Gold Market Report
From FWN's Midsession report on gold:

Sources said London spot gold came under pressure this
morning from fund selling and by mid morning London time the
$282 support level had been breached, triggering a series of
stop loss sell orders which dragged levels down to test
support at around the $281 level. By the end of the morning,
the market was picking up downside momentum at a quoted
$280.35-281.05.
ET
Peter

Hey Peter - a good friend of mine once pointed out to me that wars are always fought for only one reason - money. The drug business is a huge business and control of this business and it's profits has been the cause of most wars the last few decades. It should come as no surprise that the current war would be no exception. Lots of money in that white powder.

ET
Richard, Oregon
Ignorance Is Not Always Bliss
OK, in today's market report, "I would not be surprised if this afternoon's closing reports contained references to major fund short-selling in New York" indicates to me that funds are purposely selling gold short (selling but NOT delivering) JUST to drive or hold the price down. AND, most likely some other fund is purposely buying this (phoney gold) short gold (since there has to be a buyer in order to sell) JUST to keep the price down, fully knowing they have NO intention of taking delivery and that it IS a phoney transaction. Is that called long buying? Is my thinking somewhat correct? It would appear that sooner or later, this would catch up with itself, sort of a self fulfilling prophecy now that actual, REAL HONEST gold buying is occurring at an ever increasing pace due to the four reasons MK speaks of. Yes? Time to educate a squire a little more please. What a scam! They deserve to loose BIG.
ET
Steve
Hey Steve - I thought I might add my 2 cents to your friend's questions. Sorry for the tardy response. I travel quite a bit and just returned last night.

You wrote;

"What do you all think?

This is so confusing. Let me see if I have this straight.

One, you have the Federal Reserve orchestrating deals to bail out hedge
funds in order to give member banks who are overexposed in underperforming
derivatives time to recover. This has been widely reported in the news."

Yes - loans must continue to grow or the system collapses. The Fed has no choice in the matter. The problem the Fed has is that it cannot control where the money goes after it is created.

"Two, you have the Fed colluding to keep the price of gold below $290 in
order to give member banks time to cover their gold short positions. This
is the GATA conspiracy theory."

I would probably look at it as a consensus. Considering the fact that half the world is already in a depression, it would serve no purpose for the dollar to be perceived as weak at this time. The money that is being created to fight this depression would seek hard assets if the currencies were to be perceived as weak. Some paper currency must appear strong at any cost or the system will implode. Gold cannot be allowed to rise against the dollar.

"Three, you have the Fed colluding to suppress the price of oil by making up
the difference between what is paid in $US for a barrel of oil with gold to
Arabian oil producers. This is according to A and FOA, who think that gold
and oil will become the valuation basis for all future world trade rather
than $US, which has become a fiat currency."

The only reason that oil producers have had problems with pricing is that oil is in chronic oversupply. This is the main flaw I see in their argument. They state that oil will find higher value in the future but they don't address the issue that much of the demand has been created by the debt based monetary system. If this system collapses, whether it be the dollar or all the fiat currencies including the Euro, demand for oil will go down the tubes with it. Their scenario depends on a slow transition to a gold proxy currency so as not to bring down demand during this transition. At this time I don't see this as highly likely but I'll reserve judgment.

"While the OPEC countries have
been experiencing economic hardship with oil trading at below $13/barrel for
so long, to the point that many have had to go into debt in order to
maintain their respective welfare states. I have read articles in the WSJ
(propaganda?) that talk about the fact that in these oil rich sheikdoms
their citizens do not work, they have to bring in Indians and other
foreigners to do the menial jobs and the high tech jobs. And yet they are
masterminding the ultimate world-wide return to a gold standard."

Yes, it would seem they are as much a victim of this monetary system as anyone else. This whole scenario they outline would be great if it can be accomplished but we'll have to see if it plays out the way they believe. I think y2k has thrown a monkey wrench into this plan as well as others.

"Meanwhile, back on the continent, the Euro, which took longer to put
together than anyone expected, and which will not be supported by the Brits,
and may or may not be supported by the Germans, but will be supported by the
other socialist countries that can't seem to get over the fact that they
lost their former empires, because they think it may enable them to resolve
their inflation and unemployment and debt problems without having to endure
the pain that a free market imposes. Of course, the Euro will be pegged to
a gold standard."

The debt will be reconciled at some time. It is inevitable. It is arrogance on any government's part that they can somehow plan a strategy that will allow this to be painless. It isn't possible. You can't borrow your way to prosperity.

"But, there is not enough gold coming out of the ground to cover all the
leases, the short positions, AND pay the Arab oil states (but not the
Venezuelans or Mexicans or Iraq), not to mention the attempts to build
hoards by the Asians."

Yes, this fact alone would make you believe gold is worth much more than currently perceived.

"And, in my opinion, the fundamental currency of exchange is fast becoming
information. The more you know, the more you are worth. Just look at your
business. All trade is a form of barter. The only thing currency really
does is give the traders, the barterers, a means of calibrating the value of
each component of the trade. It just makes trade easier. If A and FOA are
right, and all the gold in the world ends up in the hands of a few, then how
do those few benefit? They will still have to pay for knowledge, from the
people who repair their limos to the people who operate their missile
guidance systems, to the soldiers that try to protect them from the invading
Allied armies."

I don't know that this is what they are saying. They seem to be saying that oil should be paid for with something real and efforts are being made by some to change the payment system. Whether this can be accomplished without destroying demand is another story.

"This is all too confusing."

Yes, but it remains important to keep things in the proper perspective. The real economy functions on strict supply and demand while the monetary system does not. It appears to me that the real economy over the past century has seen demand inflated by this monetary system and any attempt at reverting to a hard money system would have the consequence of destroying that demand that relies on the current system remaining intact. It is an interesting problem oil producers face. It is my current view that oil will not fare any better than other commodities in a worldwide depression of the real economy. It's price in any fiat currency would be a direct function of the underlying government/bank policies. Gold is independent of both. It's value does not change, only it's price.

ET
AEL
for the record...
Thanks, folks, for the kind words recently. (me, "god"?!?!? ha!)

Note that most of my contributions are mere clippings of items from elsewhere on the web -- not original thought/writing. Really, I am still very much the newbie in all this... in contrast, say, to Aragorn or MK (and some others), who obviously have devoted years or even decades to reading and careful thinking about all this (money/economy) stuff. My hat is off to the REAL intellectual leaders around here...
TownCrier
News you can use..."easy money" and bank failures...
HEADLINE: Europe gold at six-month low on central bank talk--March 26 (Reuters)

"There's been a touch of the funnies going on in the lending market," said one London dealer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990326/rr.html
----------
HEADLINE: NY gold hits contract low early on hedge selling--March 26 (Reuters)

Seaching for the cause...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990326/j3.html
---------
HEADLINE: Ecuador minister denies talk of new bank holiday--March 26 (Reuters)

One of Ecuador's five largest banks has failed this week
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990326/ms.html
----------
HEADLINE: Most IMM currencies fall, Russia severs NATO ties--March 26 (Reuters)

Currency stats...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990326/o4.html
----------
The Stranger
Richard re#3880
Richard, yes, your idea about phoney trades is theoretically possible. It is illegal, however, in every market that I know of.

I think today's action should be a reminder to all of us that the shorts aren't in as much trouble as we have so frequently postulated. Clearly, they are in control of this gold market and deserve credit for their prescience.

Today is the kind of day that really tests the courage of the longs. An apparent break in support, like this, can often wash out the weakest hands. I keep thinking of Lt. Dan from "Forrest Gump" strapped to the mast and yelling at the heavens, "Storm? You call this a storm? This ain't no storm." Count me as one of those strapped to the mast.

Incidentally, virtually always, great bull markets begin with a scary wash out. A look at a chart of the XOI oil stock index is instructive. A few weeks ago, the bottom appeared to be falling out of it when, suddenly, it turned up and took off like a roman candle. I've seen this behavior so many times in my career that I would describe it as the norm.

Lastly, I would point out that a short-lived rally in bonds appears to have ended this week. Once again, bond yields and oil prices are in gear on the upside. This portends favorably for the goldmeisters.
Aristotle
Hey Townie,
Your subject line reminded my of Aragorn's excellent observation:

"Savings in the bank can do no better than suffer the ravages of fractional lending, but your brilliance must allow you the recognition that it could also suffer much, much worse! That day will come. Your frustration is that your brilliance was early to recognize the end of game, and preparations left you out of the easy money on Wall Street. Don't be suddenly stupid. Gold right now IS the EASY MONEY!!"

With a war going on in one corner of the world, this could seem like a really long weekend. Today's gold market offering is too good to be true. In the past 18 months I can only recall gold closing below $280 for combined total of about a week's worth of days--last August, and the prior Spring. With Y2K around the corner, unprecedented public demand for gold coins, an irrational tempting of fate on Wall St, a war, OPEC flexing muscles, South American bank failures, Russian aggravation with U.S. ...today is a gift to metal buyers everywhere from the paper traders that set the prices.
Now let's see... payday isn't 'til next week... I've got some careful planning to do in order to cart away some of this Castle's treasury. This day of real Easy Money is giving me a good leg-up on my own castle. ---Aristotle

Gold. Get you some.
Gandalf the White
WOW --- WHAT a comeback on the XAU
The last ten minutes were a Goldheart's dream !! Looking good.
<;-)
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
June down $3.50 after contract high
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Mar 26--COMEX active Jun gold futures settled down $3.50 at
$281.70 per ounce after slumping to a contract low of $280.80, while the nearby
Apr contract settled down $3.40 after falling to $278.50, which was also a
contract low. Gold was hurt as Canada, a major gold producer, unexpectedly urged
the International Monetary Fund to sell a portion of its gold reserves. Gold
prices were also undermined by the dollar's jump against other currencies and a
conclusive break of $282 support by the Apr contract.
Gold dropped in a delayed reaction to comments late Thursday by Canada Prime
Minister Jean Chretien, who urged the International Monetary Fund to sell gold.
Traders said that Chretien's comments were particularly bearish, because they
ran contrary to the notion that gold-producing countries would be against such
sales (story .27380).
One trader commented that the Canada statements were "another nail in gold's
coffin," after President Clinton had last week said the IMF should sell some of
its gold to help poor nations. French president Jacques Chirac had also called
on the IMF to sell some of its gold and there is talk that Germany is also
softening its stance to the idea of IMF gold sales.

However, James Steel, analyst at Refco said that much of today's fall is
"related to the vigorous dollar rally which is no doubt Kosovo related."
He said that because the crisis has tended to weaken the Euro, the best
alternative is to buy dollars and sell euros and gold. He noted that buying gold
and selling dollars is not being seen as a viable option.

As a dollar-denominated commodity, gold prices typically edge lower when the
dollar climbs against other currencies. One trader noted that given gold is
supposed to be a safe haven in times of trouble, some of the selloff was
prompted by disappointment with its ability to rally as the Kosovo crisis
escalated.
The US and its NATO allies have launched air raids against the Serbs after
they refused to sign a peace accord with ethnic Albanians in the Serb province
of Kosovo.
Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch said that in addition to concern with
the potential for IMF sales, members of European Central banks continue to put
pressure on the European Central Banks to allow them to sell gold reserves.
"Everyone is concerned about IMF sales and about Swiss sales in 2000," he said.
He noted that today there was also a break down in technicals, and with "the
chart picture getting ugly," he predicts there will be a downside bias.
Traders noted that talk circulating in the market that a mining company had
made large sales on the forward markets had also helped to push down prices.
Some traders suggested that these sales came from Australian mining companies.
"There were a couple of producers in Australia who got a little panicked and put
some gold into the London market, but not here in New York," said one trader.
"It was not that large, but was enough to raise eyebrows," he said.
Meanwhile, one trader summed up the whole day's gold action: "It's
basically a combination of a whole lot of things." He noted that there were
"more good reasons to sell gold than to buy it."


Ottawa--Mar 26--Canadian Finance Minister Paul Martin today said that the
idea of the IMF selling gold to finance the debt-relief is an idea that's
"making its way" through international circles. He said the number of
countries eligible for debt-relief under the IMF's regime could be doubled
from the current 6, and "substantially increased beyond that" at a later
time. By Vipal Monga, Bridge News, Story .24082

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Peter Asher
ET
In the movie, 'Reds', Warren Beaty/Johnn Reed, the reporter has just returned from the WWI trenches. He's at some big dinner event, and is introduced and the audience told, "John is going to tell us what this war is all about." So he stands up before this large group (Portland Club or whatever) and say's "Profits", and then sits down.
sadus
You guys don't wanna miss this...
http://www.theonion.com/onion3406/yeltsinejected.html

Sorry, I'd post the article, but the pictures are important.
Aragorn III
Reply to Friend of SteveH requesting a followup to my (3/25/99-- Msg ID:3827)
"This is an education. I understand and agree that fractional lending,
regardless of standard, is a house of cards that will ultimately collapse."

As that day arrives, we see the cardtable beneath the U.S. house being kicked and bumped by too many chairs and too many knees and feet. A product of bad planning and poor management after the music stopped in 1971.

"But, how can the euro be "unencumbered by debt"?"

Look carefully here... I said "...unencumbered as is the dollar with debt that cannot be serviced", the final three words being the distinction. This is borne out in past posts and all that follows. Much of the world's development potential is kept in a back-seat to losing efforts at debt service to dollar denominated contracts. The U.S. itself has $5.5 trillion in its own debt to service. To simply repudiate this debt is to destroy the dollar outright. To pay in full using dollars is impossible as has been well-explained in the past. To settle this claim with real things requires many real and available things indeed. Or it requires every ounce of gold reported to be held by the Treasury to be valued at $20,000 each and submitted to the lender for payment in full. Such is the value of the dollar, upon settlement of accounts in this simple example. On such a day your cash savings will buy nothing, as all real things will recognize this low value of the dollar; caused by decades of borrowing from the future to live now.

"Every "euro" nation is deeply in debt, now denominated in euros rather than lire,
francs, etc. So, if the value of the dollar relative to world currencies
declines, won't that mean that U.S. goods exported to Europe and Asia will
no longer be as expensive?"

It means your U.S. cash savings will diminish accordingly. You must recognize and maintain the difficult distinction between exchange rates and fair market value(price) of goods. Unless U.S. companies/workers are willing to settle for less "real" profits/wages, the prices will rise to reflect both the lesser world value of the currency, and the true quality of the product being marketed.

"Is not the fact that the U.S. is a net importer
of goods a function of the high cost of U.S. goods in other countries as
well as the relatively low cost of imported goods here?"

No. The U.S. runs a trade deficit on goods and service because it CAN. Dollars have been sought and used by others for oil (and for savings in one form or another).

"When the dust settles, doesn't it follow that the U.S. will become a net exporter?"

Yes, if oil requires some form of currency that the U.S. possesses no direct means to print as needed itself.

"And barter/trade predates banks. Do you really think that ultimately you will
be paid for services and purchase goods with gold? Or, do you think that in
the period before the dust settles, you will sell your gold for euros or
dollars?"

Daily commerce using gold remains a messy business. It won't be used directly. But even now, gold measures the currencies� value. Just as you might cash a check, or "break" a $100-bill for convenient shopping, so too does golden wealth find its ability to do business neatly. I need only ask, "What does the seller require for settlement? (How does he name his price?) Euros? Dollars? TBA?"

My thanks to all for such kind commendation.
Richard, Oregon
Stranger - Back At You
Thanks for your reply. It would seem at first glance that a 'shorting mentality' could go on endlessly as long as the all players agree to make it work, NEVER taking delivery and each taking their turn as promised. But, since real demand in 1998 was up considerably and continues that trend in 1999, sooner or later somebodies going to have to deliver some real gold to the market. Where is all this gold that is actually being purchased coming from? Maybe they can convince central banks to sell some gold. But every time that is mentioned, the price drops further. If I were a central bank, I think I really want the price as high as possibly so as to reduce the amount of physical gold to make up say x# of $s. And if they continue to tell people that gold is a bad investment, maybe the people will stop their darn buying. But that doesn't seem to be working so maybe if they just suggest central banks sell occasionally, that may work. All this maneuvering seems to have little to no effect on buyers who just think gold is worth buying. The maneuvering has only reduced the price making it cheaper to buy that bullion. Like I said last night, gold now is probably the ONLY thing you can buy from the government and get MORE than you pay for. Anyhow, just some thoughts. There are good sides to this down market. I guess we'll just need to keep buying cheap gold. And if it continues to go down, just cash in those T bills and buy more.
bmacd
(No Subject)
Well, it used to be annoying that the minute gold started to move up on price, out came the IMF sale rumors ,like clockwork. Now, it's almost funny. Something's going on in this market. The last couple of times gold moved ahead, the rumors were really fast and furious. It's almost to the point of an orchestration to keep them coming, to make the drop in price (short selling) look legitimate. Honestly, if the IMF really were to sell the small amount of gold that has been proposed, does anyone here really think that the gold price will tumble? I doubt it. In a sick way, it may help it, making it even more obvious how worthless paper currencies are. As for Paul Martin and PM Chretian, give me a break. For a smart man, Martin has made some pretty dumb statements lately, and Chretian has made a political career as PM by standing for and doing nothing. Russia misses payment after payment, and this stuff never comes out, but NOW the IMF should sell the gold?! Canada is a resource nation too, great idea guys...keep those proces low.
JA
sadus
Yelsin post. Surely that must be some kind of a joke?
turbohawg
PH in LA
Could it be that those lease figures indicate that someone is betting a stock market collapse is imminent ?? A stock market collapse would be at least short term deflationary and would likely drive gold lower. Does somebody know something ?? If that's the case, it appears we won't have to wait long for an answer.
USAGOLD
"Europe gold at six-month low on central bank talk..."
I would like to direct the attention of this illustrious table round to the details of this very strange Reuters report that accompanied today's plummeting gold market.

For the url see TownCrier below.

We have all been forced to endure, as bmacd, just pointed out these repetitive stories of central bank gold leasing which usually force the gold market lower. But this Reuters story introduces something totally new: Central bank gold borrowing! "One bank," says a London dealer, "has borrowed about three million ounces in the last couple days, which is an awful lot of gold." The activity has driven up gold interest rates -- usually a sign of rising, not falling, gold prices.

Excuse me, but I find that intriguing. Why would a central bank borrow gold?

Beyond that simple statement of a fact, there are some rather blurry speculations that some central bank "sold last week in the drop fromm $288". And what? Borrowed the gold down here to square the short? Such speculation is beyond any G-7 central bank mandate I know of. Also, some central bank "might have decided 40 basis points (rise in gold interest rates) wasn't enough to justify lending." And what? Withdrew its gold from the market forcing some central bank borrower to scramble for other gold to borrow? From some other central bank?

And how does all this translate to gold nosediving today?

"A touch of the funnies going on in the lending market?"

Indeed...
The Stranger
Richard
I don't know what the rules are, if there are any rules, for hedge funds, derivatives trading, etc. I know, when you short a stock, your broker is required by law to get 50% margin up front. I would be surprised if CB gold leasing arrangements don't similarly require some collateral. If so, then, theoretically, there is a limit to how deeply short a lessee get. Perhaps somebody here in the forum knows if this is so.

Though we speak of them collectively, the shorts probably result from different types of strategies, many of them fully hedged. But, I know one thing, everyone of them is a latent buy order that, sooner or later, will be executed.
SteveH
comments
Gold still on track for $300 in next few weeks, imo. Why? TA shows classic symptoms for bounce intact, we are just now seeing the stops hit. Next we will se a a few days of consolidation, then boom. Gold doesn't sit still long. It moves either one way or the other. She is going to get bored here. Fundamentals demand it. Here are the indicators that support this:

-- COT net long in a big way again.
-- Negative talk of gold at all time high.
-- Too much physical being bought at this level.
-- DOW rally is too narrow.
-- More and more record lows on broader markets.
-- Commodity index rallying.
-- XAU basing.
-- VSE beginning its bull market, heavily resource laden.
-- Mining stocks basing and ready for move up.
-- Price of oil rising.
-- War.

These are but a few reasons to support this day's gold price as maybe the last great buying opportunity as when no one can say a positive thing and stuanch gold bugs have exited their positions then it is time. We wait.


Answer this:

Is leased gold delivered?
Does lease gold remain with the lessor?
If it is not delivered, is there ever a time when it would have to be delivered?
Is leased gold repaid in gold or money?
Who, specifically, is the real lessor of gold, the CB or bullion bank?
PH in LA
Rhody's Lease-rate Work (over at that other forum)
Bmacd:

I, personally do not really pretend to fully understand all the intricacies of gold (& silver) leasing. However, I have noticed that Rhody has been consistently calling in advance every drop just before it happens. He claims to do this by watching the lease rates.

For anyone seeking technical understanding of the underlying fundamental reasons for his success, I recommend following closely his posts and the explanations he usually includes with them. His work seems like some of the most worthwhile short-term predictions on gold and silver I have been seeing lately.
PH in LA
Oil and the CRB index...inflation coming?
Everyone:

Light crude closed over $16 today. Also, I saw reference to a breakout in the CRB index yesterday and today. Since oil has recently been under $10 this kind of rise, if sustained should be expected�to impact the CRB which is designed to be a leading indicator of price inflation to come. Since oil (and the cost of transportation) is built into the price of virtually everything in our civilization, we WILL soon be seeing higher prices everywhere we look. This will not be good for the stock market (or the bonds). It will be what holding gold is all about.
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye!
Your presence is requested in the room of The Gilded Opinion to view the latest update. Mr. David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund provides a counterpoint to Fed Chairman Greenspan's recent comments on the utility of derivativesin financial markets.

Mr. Tice offers: "What was not appreciated in Asia or Russia then, and what is certainly not understood in our market today, is that only individual market participants can hedge exposure with derivatives, not the entire market. If much of the market attempts to use derivatives for hedging, there is simply no one with the resources to take the other side of the trade. If no one takes the other side, the only way to hedge is to sell securities and, when the crisis begins, prices collapse as derivative-related selling simply overwhelms the market place. With about $14 trillion of stock market value in the US today, the market is too large for significant amounts of risk to be "unbundled", as Mr. Greenspan likes to say. Indeed, who has the resources to "insure" against a 25% market correction that would involve stock market losses of $3.5 trillion? The answer is no one."

Please take a walk to the USAGOLD HomePage, then gain access to the article in its entirety via the link to The Gilded Opinion. Your comments are invited upon returning to the Round Table.
beesting
Sir---Peter!
Would like to make an elequent statement about your special day,but eloquence eludes me so it's just a plain:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!


And many more..........beesting
HopeingII
Gold Manipulation
I am getting so beaten up that I emphasise
at the outset, that this post may amount to nothing
more than wishful thinking on my part. In any event,
I offer up the following for this fine tables consideration.

Not all who visit this site believe the Gold
manipulation theory. I for one do believe it whole
heartedly. This post then is based entirely on the
presumption that the price of Gold is being manipulated.

Having said that, would it then not be reasonable
to conclude that "THEY", the manipulators, are in fact in
one of two positions.

(1) They are in "TOTAL" control of the POG and
can manipulate it in either direction entirely at will. They
have nothing to fear, no one and nothing can thwart them. or

(2) They are not in "TOTAL" control, and events
could transpire to their detriment. In other words, they
could quite possibly lose control.

In view of what we have witnessed during the past
two weeks, I believe THEY are in position # 2.
Furthermore, I believe THEY are getting closer each
and every day to losing control. In fact, it appears to me
that THEY "KNOW" full well that the POG will very soon
be on the rise and THEY are taking what hopefully is
one of their last "kicks at the cat". Trying to minimise
the damage so to speak. Why do I think this is the case ?

A baseball team does not bring in a "PINCH HITTER"
when the game is going in their favour. In the past two weeks
we have seen a number of "PINCH HITTER�S". This
incredulous proposition of selling IMF Gold to help the poor
is more full of holes than Swiss Cheese, I need not even
elaborate. But, just look at who stepped up to the plate,
The president of France, Al Gore, Bill Clinton and just
yesterday, Jean Chretien. Curious isn't it, the IMF can
arrange to extend 41 Billion dollars to Brazil without any
fanfare whatsoever, no big deal, done in a matter of weeks
but the sale of IMF Gold to the tune of maybe 3 Billion
to help unnumbered poor countries and which would take
many months if it ever happens has to be broadcast to the
world, over and over and over again. What a crock.

There seems to be an almost desperate attempt to
drive the POG down at the present time. Why ? Perhaps
because there are simply too many factors converging
to drive the price higher and "THEY" know they can't
keep the lid on much longer. Recent developments that
are positive for Gold.

- According to the World Gold Council, Gold
demand was at a record high in the fourth
quarter of 1998.

- Gold Coin sales are sky rocketing, the U.S.
mint is rationing coins.

- The Coin demand is no doubt due to Y2K
concerns and will without doubt increase
as 1999 progresses. If Coins are unavailable,
bars and so on will be in demand.

- The Chinese have on more than one occasion
stated that they should (and probably will)
increase their Gold reserves.

- Oil prices have increased significantly as of
late, an inflationary indicator if there ever
was one.

- GATA, the manipulation of Gold is beginning
to be exposed.

In conclusion, the above mentioned developments that are positive for Gold did not exist or were not generally known as little as three months ago. Perhaps the pressure is building and "THEY" are in danger of losing control.
What do you think ?

beesting
WHO OR WHAT IS PULLING THE STRINGS.
Will the real Wizard of Oz please show himself/herself!!
Doesn't it seem odd that 5 of the worlds top officials all announce on different days the same thing.Sell IMF Gold!
Canadian Prime Minister-Jean Chretien.
Canadian Finance Minister- Paul Martin.
U.S.President- Bill Clinton.
U.S.Treasury Secretary-Robert Rubin.
French President-Jacques Chirac.

These men all have one thing in common,they are surrounded by"Yes Sir" people,and suddenly they are saying"Yes Sir" to someone or something.Could it be the"Bank For International Settlements"? Could it be "the Rothschild cartel"? Do any of these men sit on the executive board of the IMF? The question is who or what is powerful enough to control these men? Who is next,Prime Minister of Japan? Australia? Many unanswered and baffling questions.Any and all opinions welcomed.
Mr.ANOTHER or FOA can you comment on these questions???
Thank You.............beesting
beesting
HopeingII #3902

Was writing as you were posting'sorry I didn't mean to copy you. Seems to me a major event is brewing in the economic world. We watch together............beesting
The Stranger
Test
Test
canamami
Cryptic Gold Posts, and Kosovo
There have been cryptic comments on various internet fora, generally about some economic event(s) which will favourable impact on gold and which the posters will soon explain, said event(s) to occur as early as Monday or at least within a the next couple of weeks. (See, for example, Kaplan's site as well as some posts on the "Dutch Central Bank" on SI, among others).

I subscribe to the theory that anything worth saying should be said simply and intelligibly; otherwise, it's not worth saying. When someone gets cryptic, to me it usually means they're spreading nonsense or disinformation, or trying to pass off a half-baked idea as haute cuisine.

That being said, there have been a number of posts to this effect which I have encountered in my weekend surfing, so perhaps there's some fire underlying the smoke. I'm not vouching for anything or taking a position (don't have the background to seriously assess these comments, even if they were clearly set out), but I'm just providing this info to other USAGOLD members as a heads-up.

Off-Topic: In a previous employment, I had to do moderately intensive research on the Balkans, and to deal with people from that area. Every major group can accuse every other major group of committing atrocities against it at some point in the past several centuries. It is a region of dysfunctionally long memories; what happened centuries ago matters. Otherwise sane and moral people can become rabid when issues of ethnic history and politics are raised. As for the Russians' support of the Serbs, think of how old-stock English Canadians, Americans (esp. of British ancestry), Anzacs and the Brits view each other: not truly as foreigners, but part of the broader Anglo-American community. The reaction thus is not based solely on intelligence and justice, but on blood ties and shared history and culture. See, for example, how the Brits supported Canada against the rest of the EU, during the so-called "fish war" with Spain, even though Canada was technically in the wrong. To steal from Churchill: For honourable reasons, we in the West have unwisely sown the wind; we shall reap the whirlwind.
The Stranger
Steve H, HopeingII and beesting
Steve- What is COT?

HopeingII and beesting- I agree. Keeping inflation and interest rates low is a preoccupation of any sane national leader. Jawboning evidently works, or at least it did last week. But it can't work forever. Hopeing's "holding down the lid on a boiling pot" metaphor is certainly apt.

I don't get the characterization of the shorts as "desperate", however. I picture them more as "gleeful" at the moment. I know I would be.

The Stranger
canamami
I am going to remember that "spreading half-baked ideas as haute cuisine" remark for a very long time. If you are not a published writer, you ought to be.

Perhaps I am still new here, but I do not know the sites you mentioned. Can you help me find them?
bill5577
Midas du Metropole:Silence of the Lambs-Hannibal Lechter Lives!
Midas du Metropole
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"

March 26, 1999 - Spot Gold $279.50 down $3.40 - Spot Silver $5.09 down 2 cents

Technicals -

The gold market has broken down as the recent new resistance point of $285 was not penetrated to the upside on a closing basis. The lousy price action at that level encouraged new selling as the open interest is on the rise again and now stands at over 173,000 contracts as of yesterday.

The Commitment of Traders Report, released after the close, shows that the funds were ying yanged perfectly by the colluders and are building short positions again after being run in just two weeks ago. The large specs, as of last Tuesday, are now short 54,000 contracts and the commercials are long again, to the tune of about 55,000 contracts. Unbelievable! Percentage wise, the specs are probably more short now than they were one month ago as the open interest is 20,000 contracts less. The funds were big, big sellers again today and squad leader, Goldman Sachs, was a huge buyer, taking in its previous shorts, and who knows, maybe even going long here.

The last 3 Commitment of Traders Reports are the most amazing and unusual that any of us have ever seen. The large specs went from 70,000 contracts net short to flat to most likely another 70,000 net short again as of today's close. Nothing like has ever happened before( that any of us can recall ) in such quick fashion and, in our opinion, could only have occurred as a result of "Goon Squad Collusion".

It now looks the price of gold will rally back to the $288-$290 area in the weeks ahead, which is a key gold borrowing point. The big question is, have the colluders made enough money in the past weeks and engineered the price to go low enough so that they now have orchestrated an exit strategy and again, who knows, maybe even decided to go long for the big play on the upside. Or, will these guys pull the same slam dunk maneuver all over again. Have no clue on that one. We do know that Goldman Sachs has an IPO coming up and the partners have a big pay day ahead in the months to come.

Aside from that, bear talk is everywhere and with good reason. The gold price is suffering from one of the biggest orchestrated onslaughts in the history of markets. Today, it was Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretian doing his part, saying that "the IMF should sell 10 million ounces of its gold reserves", which is at the high end of the 5 to 10 million ounce range. Translation: gold has not broken sufficiently yet, so officialdom calls on Canada to follow Clinton, Chirac and crew. There are calls by many for market transparency. This is it ( though not exactly what www.transparency.de had in mind ) - orchestration of bearish talk regarding gold of the most transparent kind.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, silver is holding $5 and the gold market pummeling in sterling fashion. Our sources continue to tell us that there is massive buying interest all around the $5 area and that is why silver is not breaking down like gold. Silver is not being manipulated like its sister metal is at the moment. Neither is oil which has rallied 60% off of its lows. Remember how bearish the pundits were when oil traded at $10? Oil's price weakness was a reason giving for the poor precious metals performance. How does that apply now? How about the CRB? It closed at 192.67, making a new recovery high. Hardly a bearish precious metals indicator. Where is the deflation talk and that reasoning for a bearish gold market?

Egregious is the best word I can think of when it comes to the gold market manipulation- egregious. Silver has different dynamics right now and its future shines. It appears it is gathering strength to make a run at $5.80 which will surprise Martin Armstrong and his bear camp followers. We will still be very surprised if silver does not trade at $9.78 before the end of this year.

Fundamentals -

Silence of the Lambs - Hannibal Lechter Lives!

( Insert Gold Mining Companies in place of Lambs )

Preface - Reuters - Toronto - March 23, 1999 - "A trace of panic entered the ranks of small gold producers in Canada where the growing possibility of mine closures and bankruptcies blight a horizon already darkened by low bullion prices�.The slow demise of Kirkland, Washington-based gold producers Royal Oak Mines Inc. which operates gold mines in Ontario, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories, highlights the troubles of junior players in the gold sector."

In the face of obvious manipulation of the gold market, the silence of the gold mining companies is deafening. Midas will try and point out what is going on here and what GATA, who is Jody Foster in this analogy, is going to try and do about it.

Hannibal Lecther is your friendly bullion banker, who encourages the producers to sell forward and makes his fees for doing so. Hannibal is also the one who is making gold bullion available to the rest of his firm's investment operations for financing purposes and encourages other financial institutions to borrow gold at low 1%, or so, interest rates. This game has been going on for some time now and is fostered by bearish analyst reports from these same financial entities. Those reports serve to demoralize gold market participants even further, causing more forward sales and the cycle goes on.

Here is a recent example of that we mean. Yesterday, we were told by one of our sources that Bear Stearns was selling gold for the purpose of gold carry trades. Short term lease rates shot up about 20 basis points ( 25% ), so someone was out there borrowing gold in size and dumping it into the market place. Today, John Ryding, Bear Stearn's economist was on CNBC making repeated references to the gold market and how its low price shows there is no inflation and how it is such a good barometer that all is well.

This gold lending and borrowing scheme has been a bonanza for the Wall Street insiders and for those in on the wink . In essence, they have been able to borrow money almost for free to invest in Treasuries, stock markets, and sophisticated derivative plays ( a la Long Term Capital Management ).

Of course, the game is only a winner (and the loan being almost a free one ) if the price of gold does not go up to any great degree. As we have said many times before, if that occurs, an almost free loan could become one of the most expensive in history. As we believe that there is a natural supply/demand deficit of some 1600 tonnes ( approximately 4129 tonnes of demand over 2529 tonnes of mine supply ) the lending game is becoming a little hairier to play. The 1600 tonne deficit must be met by producer forward sales, scrap supply, central bank sales, or gold lending schemes.

Hannibal Lechter can only thrive " with a little help from his friends" for the devouring of most of the gold market participants to continue. That is why we believe they have colluded together to keep the price down. It is one big "cabal" playing the same game and consorting to punish the market to satisfy their greedy appetite.

Thus, they recruit "friends" like the producers and urge them so sell forward. It has been a viscous, endless cycle the past few years. To be blunt, here is where the problem lies, "Hannibal" is an "animal". The bullion bankers give the gold companies their lines of credit to operate. Many of the gold companies know what is going on here, but are afraid to do anything about it for fear that their credit lines might be severed or reduced. What is worse, is that we think certain gold companies know exactly what is going on and are, in some ways, are in bed with Hannibal. They have taken this knowledge and have hedged to the max, thus profiting in many ways from this dreadful situation. In the meantime, the sustained low gold price is destroying exploration companies and other higher cost gold producers. Thus, certain of these gold producers have become "Hannibals the Cannibals" ( perhaps unintentionally ), and are picking off their own by corporate aquisitions of cheap gold resources. As each month passes without a substantial rise in the gold price, the situation for many gold companies will grow more dire and the "Cannibals" lusty appetite to devour other weakened gold firms will grow, even if unwittingly.

What a nightmare! A few gold companies have told us they might be afraid if they support GATA, that the U.S. government will sic the environmental authorities after them and their gold mining properties. What was done and threatened to those that dared speak against President Clinton has had its effect in the land. What have we come to? Is this now the United States of China? - where individuals and companies are afraid to speak out and react to wrong doings for fear of own government squashing their lives and livelihood. A revolting development.

Well, GATA ( and with our Jody Foster type efforts ) is going to do something about this mess. Regarding the gold companies: we are very sympathetic to their problems at the moment. We are alerting them to our activities, www.gata.org, our concerns, and our intentions to give some support to their industry and to shareholders that believe in the role of gold and the gold companies.. For the most part thus far, they have been very receptive to our calls and have assured us, they will follow us closely. That is all we ask for at this point in time. In the near future, we are going to ask for their support. If they cannot give it to us publicly, they can give it to us anonymously. They will be for us, or not for us. Black or white. That simple. The collusion in the gold market has gone on too long and is too serious now for gold miners around the world, gold company shareholders and certain gold companies to do any pussyfooting around. Time is of the essence.

In the meantime, GATA is methodically marching forward. Yesterday, Chris Powell, John Meyer and I flew to Philadelphia to meet with Merrill Davidoff and Jerome Marcus of Berger & Montague, GATA's future attorneys. GATA is so very, very lucky. Merrill Davidoff is extremely knowledgeable about the gold market and follows it very closely. He has also won many BIG, well known cases. Jerome Marcus is a tiger, too. Philadelphia Magazine just wrote a story about him and his behind the scenes role in the Paula Jones case. As John Meyer said on the way back, "this guy is so good, he strategized a way to win a judgement in a case that had been thrown out of court". As you are all aware, there are many details that we cannot get into in a public forum. Our attorneys would prefer we say nothing at all, but they also know that we need to mobilize support and enthusiasm for GATA. That cannot be accomplished in a vacuum, so I will lay out as much as I can for you.

We should officially retain Berger & Montague very soon. That will coincide with our intention to retain Edelman Public Relations Worldwide. We will then announce that we are launching an investigation into the activities of various bullion banks and financial institutions that we believe have colluded to hold down the gold price. We intend to dig up additional evidence of collusive activities that will bolster the evidence that has come to us already.

Remember, the attack plan we laid out in Shaka�..Zulu. It calls for the formation of a diamond formation that will turn into an enveloping horn. At the front of the diamond, will be our efforts in the legal area. While engaging the manipulators head on with our legal, investigative efforts, our left and right flanks will fan out and engage the colluders from the sides.

On the left flank, will be our PR effort to counter the negative publicity officialdom spin meisters are pitching at the media. We will let the investment world know that we believe they gold borrowing speculative crowd is short over 3,000 tonnes of gold and that is more than one year's mine supply. We will pound away at the fact that this is a very dangerous situation and could cause some economic chaos for the financial markets if the size of this speculative short position is not sharply reduced. Our purpose will be to focus on this issue to draw attention to the precarious situation of the gold lenders and gold borrowers. We hope that by raising investment community awareness of the vulnerability of the shorts, that other big players in the investment world will begin to want to take them on. Remember, future longs will have the natural supply/demand deficit and Asian official sector buying as allies. We have been told that certain bullion banks have already become a bit nervous about GATA's activities. It is our goal to make them really sweat.

We also want to alert the public as to the harm this activity is causing certain poor, but mineral rich, African countries. Thus, we will oppose IMF gold sales, for the reasons we have already explained to you in previous Midas commentary. We intend to state our case to some members of the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress sometime in April and will attempt to bring other sympathetic politicians up to speed as to the shenanigans going on in the gold market.

The right flank activity will be our efforts to solicit the support of the gold mining companies and, in time, to alert gold company shareholders as the stance by individual companies on the issues raised by GATA. The GATA Committee members all own shares in gold companies. We cannot see any point investing in a gold company that is contributing to holding down the price of gold needlessly ( might as well invest in a tiddlywink company someplace else where there is hope and there is at least a chance for the share price to go higher ). That is not to say we do not appreciate what hedging has done and can do for certain gold producers ( that subject for a different time ). However, if they feel compelled to hedge, even at these horrendous price levels, they can still support the efforts of GATA. Already, we have received feedback that some of them agree with us about collusive price activity but continue to hedge because they know what is going on. We hope all the gold companies will give us their support in one way or another.

The back of the horn is open and is where the shorts can retreat and scurry for safety by buying back their positions. To take on some of the most powerful financial interests in the history of world is a formidable task, but one that we can win because we believe we have the truth on our side. But this battle can only be won with the support of many and a building of momentum so the "real" story of the gold market is heard around the world.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares

The XAU continues to meander, but 60 support has held like a rock and it rallied strongly at the close today to finish at 60.76 down only 1.18. Thus, the XAU joins silver in a stark divergence from the bullion breakdown.

Ironically, as Midas was preparing today's commentary, Caf� member, Jerry, sent me this wonderful letter and expression of his feelings. What timing! It is to the gold industry. Jerry, I hope some of our members send your letter to some of those would be "giants".

For Whom The Bell Tolls

(A Leadership Question)

I think back to a day when gold was a welcome addition to any portfolio. I think back to a day when ownership represented security and peace of mind. I think back to a day when conscience and integrity ruled, and giants held these values high for all to see.

Time and technology have changed this industry like many industries, which is good; yet the impacting change that occurred in the leadership of your companies, is sadly to say... poor. It is the inherent values of company leaders that have shaped this industry and turned it into what it is...and what it has become...bankrupt, manipulated and leaderless.

Who within the industry speaks for it? Who within this industry is willing to stand up and fight for it? Are there no giants within the ranks? Analysts speak for your industry and you BELIEVE, Bullion Banks speak for your industry and you ACT. Your industry is a technical and fundamental anomaly...it defies all logic. Your silence is as perplexing as the problem itself. The gold industry in reality is nothing more than an extension of the banking industry...BELIEVE IT!


You are not victims in all of this, but willing or unwilling perpetrators. This could not happen over the collective voices of company leaders raising the alarms. Gold leasing through Bullion Banks services the financial community, not your industry for which it was designed. You know this and accept the rules at the very expense of your industry. I have yet to see in print one company leader rise to the moment, challenge the rhetoric and explain the real facts. Gold is short thousands of tons, you know this better than anyone. You are witnesses to a rape and have done nothing to stop or expose it.

The next industry conference you attend where analysts are projecting $295 gold prices through the year 2000 ask them: How can this be if supply is running behind ever increasing demand and the estimated physical short is 3-5 years global production? The next time your friendly Bullion Bank calls to urge "locking in" that lofty $290 price, ask them the same question. The next time you speak to the press on company or industry matters, let them know the facts as well. Let one amongst you stand and quickly the rest will follow.

...TAKE YOUR INDUSTRY BACK!

Unless change comes from the top and within, this industry is doomed to suffer many years into the future and there will be none to blame but yourselves. Use your time and efforts well, take stock of the moment. As I write, many of you will not be around as early as next year, such is the state of your industry and the high price of your advisors. "The news always follows the tape" and someday soon a book will be written explaining how this happened for all of the wrong reasons. If you "believe in truth, stand and be strong, let grace fight the battle and sin dies here. " Stop this! Stop it now! The "Bell Tolls For Thee".

Jerry

Jody Foster



Bill Murphy ( Midas )

ET
Stranger

COT = Commitment of Traders. The report issued every two weeks designating the position held by various groups of futures traders.

ET
ET
Hopeing

Hey Hopeing - I think your analysis is accurate. I would suspect that the gold held by the IMF is needed in the marketplace to cover some short positions. By announcing their intentions they are able to further depress the paper price making it easier to cover.

I think you are absolutely right about the fact these people have lost control of the market. They seem to be scrambling to keep it stable but market forces are starting to overwhelm them. The IMF hoard seems to be the last big pile of gold not controlled by some individual sovereign. I don't see any country's central bank now deciding to sell the public treasury for fiat currency. I would in fact expect the opposite. Y2k has got them all freaked out. A panic is in the air.

ET
The Stranger
ET
Thanks, ET.
USAGOLD
Thoughts for a Saturday Morning.....
bmacd..there was something else about your post last night that gives me pause -- the past about Canada.

How is it that a gold producing country like Canada which attracts capital from all over the world for its gold mining industry (and a very large percentage of the overall capital imported) decides to publicly trash gold by calling for IMF sales?

Picking up where Cananami leaves off, the heart of the matter in the former colonies is the fear within the power structure that the people will go to gold over paper and undermine the foundations of British socialism in all English speaking countries.

This is essentially the question before us: Do we want to continue on this track of debt, deficits and dirty money and bear its consequences in some sort of final cataclysm, or do we want to stanch the wounds now by returning to sound money and restore the various constitutions in these lands -- including Britain?

There are those who would argue that these systems have operated to the society's overall advantage. We have made reasonable progress and life is essentially good. With this I will not quarrel. But at what price? Do we not sacrifice stability tomorrow for luxury today?

At the same time a society that is systemically flawed forces all sorts of cut and paste, bubble-gum and paper clip repairs (both politically and economically) in order to keep it functioning. This activity, of course, makes Clinton/Blair type politicians look good because they make it a point to act as if they are really doing something for the people when all they are really doing is applying a little chewing gum to the offending apparatus and making it appear as if it's repaired. By this they keep their jobs and remain in power and get to pontificate some more about solving the very problems they created.

A corrupt and corrupting system is generally the result (the Roman example) of all these machinations. At some point, the system collapses by the weight of the corruption alone -- as we are witnessing all over the world today -- and the ordinary people most directly suffer the consequences of institutional failure. I read an essay on the fall of Rome years ago which concluded the reason for Rome's failure in the end came down to influential Romans believing that Rome wasn't worth saving -- an interesting thesis but now I cannot find the article.

Institutional failure, of course, is the message of the Asian contagion. The system's fear -- and rightly so -- is that the contagion gets out of the control and infects First World countries like the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia. In some of these countries, the first symptoms of the disease have already emerged. Thus the international thrust is not to help the third world countries sucked into this vortex, but to make sure that the financial institutions in the first world don't get pulled into the whirlpool themselves. That's why the IMF loans generated barely touch down in the receiving countries that they are wired back to banks in New York, London, et al. One of Michel Camdessus' missions this weekend will be to insure that the upcoming Russian loans get returned to the international banks and are not siphoned off by the Russian oligarchs for their own Swiss bank accounts. (An example of the corruption mentioned above.) Few in the Western press, even raise the corruptive, immoral practice of making an international loan to a country like Russia knowing that they will default, and then laying a tax on the American people in order to cover the default.

This talk of IMF sales -- this concerted effort on the part of British speaking countries -- is an example of this corruption, not so much financial corruption, but moral and spiritual corruption. Not one of these leaders made this decision based on their understanding of the role of gold in the world's monetary affairs, or on the basis of what the small amount of money raised will actually do for the emerging nations involved, but for base political reasons having to do with the rescue of Western banks and keeping them from suffering the consequences of their poor decisions. Ultimately, the price of these rescues will be paid by the taxpayers of these countries in true, regressive socialist fashion. There comes a point where taxation or its sister malady -- inflation -- takes a large enough proportion of our collective incomes, that the people begin to believe that this society is not worth saving. It seems though that current political leadership in all these countries is content to dump that problem on our children's and grandchildren's generations -- to me the great sin of the last two generations.

One more point: Previous IMF gold sales were conducted in rising markets. These are contemplated in a static to falling market. Why is that? In my view both the earlier sales in the 1970s and the current sales are meant to serve a singular purpose: To meet expanding gold demand that results from the public's displeasure with and fear of these government's political and economic policies. By meeting that demand, the price is kept from rising. A rising gold price would be a strong indicator to the population at large that the displeasure and fear already mentioned have gone beyond groundswell status to something socially and economically significant.

USAGOLD
Addendum...
In the last paragraph, I should have said that the gold sellers "believe" the sales will hold down the price. In the 1970s gold rose rapidly despite the sales of both the IMF and the U.S. Treasury.
Jade
The "Long and Short of It"

Gold/Oil Exchange Rate. These calculations are approximate.

Oil in USD per Barrel [Avg. for Yr]�.Date�.Gold Price [Avg. for Yr]�.Gold/Oil Exchange Rate [Barrels of Oil per 1 OZ Gold]

14�..1988�436�31.1
15�..1989�381�25.4
17�..1990�383�22.5
15�..1991�362�24.1
14�..1992�343�24.5
13�..1993�359�27.6
12.5.. 1994�384�30.7
13�..1995�384�29.5
14.5...1996�387�26.6
14�..1997�325�23.2
13�..1998�305�23.46
11.5..Dec98...297�25.8 Averages for Months
12.8..Jan99�287�22.4
12.3..Feb99�287�23.3
Event [Gold manipulation downward and rise in Oil]
15.25.Mar99�282-284�18.6..18.5

Friday
15.9..3/6/99�..279�..17.55

Average is 21-1 for 1968-1999�Average for 1986-1999 is 26.5 to 1. Today the exchange rate has "again" advanced to Oils favor. Over the last four weeks the spread between Oil and Gold has widended to "an eye popping 30%".

Now lets take a peak at the inner workings of the deal this grey Friday morning�..High atop a gleaming blue skyscraper in midtown Manhattan are the ever most famous "Goldbum and Sack" offices. On one of the upper most floors you will find a vast room which contains Goldbums Gold & Commodities trading desk, Hunched over a vast array of computer monitors are Mack and his boss discussing the latest action in the New Deal. "Boss, look at this", as Mack stares intently at one of the many monitors. This one in particular is showing just two lines of blinking text, one red and the other green, "the Saudi's have pumped up that oil price to almost 17 bucks already", [Boss] "yeah I told you they'd hold their end of the deal, and we kept our end, ya see how I hammered Gold back down to 279". [Mack] "Yeah, that was pretty good boss, we went long a couple of weeks back and everyone hoped on, and then you did that reversal thing and caught all 'em all long again. And coming up with that Long Oil Short Gold spread was pure genius. It takes those square heads in equities a whole year to make what you made in month". [Boss] "Yeah, and getting those Saudi's to go along on the deal was a stroke of luck. Enough bulling around, now get those LTCM idiots on the phone and tell 'em to start unwinding their 500 tons, I want our 300 Mil back we had to loan those Bozos to bail them out. And then call that central banker I was telling you about. I know he's dumb enough to sell the 600 tons he's been talking about. Those Saudis are going to be calling me any minute now to hand over that Gold we promised to get em. And they said it had to be the real stuff, none of that paper garbage. And you know I can't hold this Gold price down forever, I heard from Rob that the Goldbugs are hopping mad and they got something called GATA that smells a big rat". Later that Friday, morning the Reuters news service reports new Central Bank Gold Sales are again rumored in the market.

Half way around the world, in a vast Middle East desert, is the ever sprawling palace of the Oil Kings. In one of those rooms with 30-foot ceilings, overstuffed chars and telephones everywhere, the old King who has lived through five Yankee presidents is barking orders to one of his senior finance ministers�.."Fisal, get those Goldbum fellows on the phone again, I want that Gold now. I sure never thought they'd get that Gold back down to 279. Those 600 tons are sure going to come in handy. When they pop Gold back up, we'll be up an extra 2 Billion on the back end. Afterwards call the BIS, tell them we have the Gold and were going to show 200 tons. Deposit 50 tons each in each in four your cousin's banks. After fractionalization we'll be up 14 Bil with 400 tons in reserve. Spend a billion to clean up that y2k mess in the production and off loading facilities. Who ever thought we could use 2% of our new income stream over the next 9 months to buy the Gold? Goldbum said something about the CB's always lease the Gold and when they offered some real Fiat, they jumped on the deal. So who said we needed the IMF. And Fiscal, I want to start cutting back our other fiat holdings as fast as possible. Use Dubai to convert to Gold. I'm afraid that Yankee fiat may turn down soon, and I sure don't want to be holding that paper bag. And Fisal, stop staring at me and get moving"
USAGOLD
Jade...
Your last post? Dynamic. I have always been a fan of financial thrillers.

Please take your esteemed chair at this table round. We welcome your future input and stats on gold for oil.
USAGOLD
Repairs...
We are no back up and running. Sorry for the inconvenience.
SteveH
Stranger
COT=Committment of Traders. Net long positions in gold held by Commercial traders usually means the market will go up soon. Usually speculators will do the opposite. So a net long position by speculators on gold would mean the price of gold futures is likely to go long. COT for commercials is high on the long side currently. So gold is likely to go up in price soon.
HopeingII
USAGOLD
Michael and Marie,

I just retrieved yesterday's mail and recieved
my copy of "In the Footsteps of Giants".

Thank you so very much, I am now assured
a most interesting and enjoyable week-end.
Peter Asher
For your reading reading pleasure
/ From the inbox of the Y2k Weatherman //
>
> Dear Y2k Weatherman,
>
> I've been on top of the Y2K situation for about a year now and have
> been working within my two communities (I live in one town of about
> 2000 and work in another of about 250) to encourage preparation
> "for the worst while hoping for the best." I am THE resident
> government official in town so I took it upon myself to establish a
> Y2K Information Public Bulletin Board at my office and have been
> posting new material to it every day or two. I've also worked with
> other community leaders to get the ball rolling on Cassandra
> Project-like plans to provide for the elderly, disabled, etc.
>
> When I first became aware of the magnitude of the issue, I passed on
> a Gary North taped interview to a friend. His reaction was: " North
> is too extreme for me and I don't believe all the systems will fail.
> However, what I do believe is that if even one-quarter of what he
> predicts comes to pass, this society will be in chaos." The reason
> he gave is that people nowadays are living extremely fragile
> emotional lives. There is no longer toughness or resiliency in
> people. They are hyper, high-strung, self-centered, immature, and
> volatile. Any little upset in their lives turns into a towering
> rage. Don't get their morning cappuccino, miss their train, find
> someone beat them to their parking space and they burst into an
> infantile tantrum.
>
> He related an incident he had witnessed only a week or so earlier.
> He was at the mini-mart and noticed a man pulled up to pump some
> gas. He waited for the clerk inside the store to manually reset the
> gas pump, but for some reason the clerk didn't notice him or was
> preoccupied with another customer or the reset mechanism wasn't
> working, etc. So the gas customer yelled at the clerk to reset the
> pump once or twice. When that didn't happen, he slammed the gas
> nozzle on the ground, shouted obscenities at the clerk inside the
> store (who obviously couldn't hear him), jumped in his car and
> squealed his tires out of the station (almost colliding with another
> vehicle) as he drove off at top speed. My friend's view is, the
> computers won't destroy the society, but the population's reaction
> to the glitches will.
>
> I'm afraid that I'm beginning to agree with him. I didn't get a
> chance to vote in your poll, but I would have voted 6 or 6.5--THEN.
> Ask me now and I'll tell you 8.5 to 9. Why? The answer is what
> happened during your vacation.
>
> You went away. There was a glitch in your new information provider
> (eGroups). Some people received some unwanted e-mail. I supposed a
> few people had their systems clogged up with extra messages. You
> weren't available to immediately solve their little problem. So what
> happened? They panicked. They flew into little snits. They soared
> into big snits. The blew up. They unsubscribed. I'll show you,
> Weatherman. Take that, Weatherman. I remember some of the messages:
> "THIS HAS TO STOP" "Stop this immediately." "Unsubscribe me
> IMMEDIATELY." "Stop this now". Panic in Y2K City. Do something! Do
> anything! This has to stop! I can't stand it any longer--it has been
> going on for 2 days now and I am ready to commit suicide (or
> murder). Oh woe is me, what am I ever going to do with all this
> e-mail! It must be a plot against me. Stop it now! Do you hear me!
> DAMN YOU, STOP IT!!!!
>
> I thought it very ironic that people who are supposedly reading your
> free information service and getting mentally, emotionally and
> spiritually prepared for possible chaos could not deal with a little
> disorder in their lives. What are these fools going to do if the
> lights go out for a month, the phone is down and they can't buy any
> milk at the store because there isn't any milk and there isn't any
> store?
>
> I'm 58 years old. I was an infant and small child during WWII. But I
> do remember the sacrifices people made. Rationing. Victory gardens.
> Blackouts. My 2 oldest brothers enlisted, served in combat and the
> younger one was killed. My next oldest brother enlisted, got to boot
> camp and was discharged when they discovered he was handicapped. He
> wanted to do his part even though he couldn't raise his right arm
> over his head.
>
> After the war, I remember my brothers' friends who came back. Some
> were "shell-shocked". Some had been wounded or injured or lost
> limbs. Lots of mothers had little flags in their windows indicating
> a son or daughter in service. No one complained. No one collected
> welfare. No one beat someone up over a parking space. Guys used
> their GI bill to finish high school or go to trade school or
> college. My oldest brother served in the Navy in the South Pacific,
> got discharged after the war and then enlisted in the Army Reserves.
> He was worried about the Russians. His unit got called up to Korea,
> but the truce happened before he left the states.
>
> I see some of this happening in 2000. But I don't see much of it.
> Maybe 5 % or the population are willing to sacrifice to serve
> others, while the other 95% are going to just go bananas. Rioting,
> looting, fighting, whining, stealing, complaining, taking advantage
> of the weak, etc. I don't like what I see. People now are
> self-centered. Period. That says it all. "Unsubscribe me now or I'll
> sue you and take everything you own." There is little behavioral
> difference between adults and infants in the world today.
>
> Hope I'm wrong. Don't think I am, though. And, yes, thank you THANK
> YOU, Weatherman, for publishing your newsletter. Your time and
> effort are not wasted.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> A Y2kWatcher
>
> ---
>
> ===
> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> + Are you ready for Y2k? Visit http://Y2kWatch.com +
Peter Asher
A personal note
First of all I want to thank everyone for their birthday wishes. Actually, when I said "entitled to the dole" I meant just that. Other than Medicare, I do not intend to draw on the funds that the Fed has so graciously printed for me, purely for selfish reasons though. If one waits till their 70th birthday, they get a larger monthly payment, but more importantly, there is then no penalty if you continue to work.

I have a personal belief that to truly retire, to cease to exchange with others, is the real beginning of the ageing process. Maybe that's a selective viewpoint from one who doesn't have to answer to the environment of a 'job', where one is a cog in someone else's wheel, but I would never be able to stop thinking of architectural design concepts, any more than I could stop thinking of everything we talk about on the Forum.

Besides that, I'm sure everyone knows that social security (what a misnomer!) Is basically grocery money. What a world that would be, if when you hit a certain age you could actually kick back and live on the government. Read that as 'other people's money'. No, this particular birthday was just a time reference to a major debt issue at hand.

By the way, we did dinner and movie last night and saw 'October Sky'. It's totally true, exceptionally well written as a screenplay, and at the end, there are real life film clips of the true characters; both as they are now and at the time of the story. If your in a real funk about the hand basket we're riding to hell in, it's a good film to make you feel better.

Farfel
What is GOLDMAN SACH's Role in $Canadian/$Aussie Carry Trades?
On the "eve" of Goldman Sach's IPO, it is worth discovering certain
facts particularly relevant to the various Canadian and Australian
posters on this forum.

Although there are certainly questions concerning Goldman's role
in the gold carry trade, they are muted by the simple fact that only a
small percentage of the population today are gold investors. It is
difficult to get potential investors in the Goldman IPO incensed about
Goldman's gold short activities when the vast majority of such investors
do not give a damn about gold. Period.

On the other hand, tens of millions of people living in Canada
and Australia would certainly be interested in discovering Goldman's
role in the Canadian and Aussie Dollar carry trades. I think they would
be notably interested on the basis that such carry trades NECESSITATE
continued weakness in both currencies. Investment houses that target
currencies such as the Canadian and Australian Dollars, borrowing
monies in these currencies for investment speculation in Wall Street
financial instruments, must ensure that those currencies fall in order
to pay back their speculative loans in cheaper currencies. Otherwise,
there would be no profits derived from such carry trades. Moreover,
these two currency carry trades are said to be ESSENTIAL in maintaining
America's bond and stock market bubbles.

All Canadian and Australian investors SHOULD receive FULL
disclosure pertaining to Goldman's activities in the currency carry
trades. They should receive such disclosure PRIOR to the GOLDMAN IPO in
order to assess properly whether or not they should put a single dollar
into such an IPO.

After all, would Canadians and Australians wish to invest in any
investment house that is devoted to undermining the economic strength,
integrity, and independence of their respective countries?

Do Canadians fondly remember the early Nineties when the Canadian
Dollar was worth US$.90 (now worth only US$.66)? How do Australians
feel today about the collapse of their Dollar? Do they regret the fact
they cannot afford to buy today many American goods and services
essential to their lives? If Canadians and Aussies thought a purchase of
Goldman stock would assist in devaluing their respective currencies
another 25% over the next year or two ( as some notable currency
speculators are forecasting ) , would they buy this stock?

So, not only must Goldman fully disclose its role in the gold
carry trade previous to its IPO, it must also satisfy potential Canadian
and Aussie investors that it has suspended and will not continue bear
raids on their two currencies.

Goldbugs should enlighten all potential foreign investors in the
Goldman IPO about this particularly compelling issue. It might make them
think twice.
The Stranger
Steve H
Thanks, Steve. I remember reading at one point last year that the commercials had begun tilting toward the long side. I understand why that is bullish. I just didn't know there were periodic reports that were accessible to mortals. CAN YOU BE COUNTED ON TO PASS THIS INFORMATION ON EVERY TWO WEEKS, or can you advise where I might find it?

Also, in that I don't know what to compare it to, just how bullish is this latest number?

Lastly, how come you're always up in the middle of the night? (Do you feel like you're being grilled?) You're usually the first person to "talk" to me every morning.

TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye!
Now apperaring at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinion...
"Paper vs. Metal" by James Turk / Freemarket Gold & Money Report

Following a noble comparison and contrast between Microsoft shares and gold ounces, Mr. Turk goes on to conclude:
"...the impact on the Gold price from the forward selling by the mining companies is no different than that of the short sellers. It puts downward pressure on the Gold price, and we have seen that downward pressure at work over the past several years as the short position of speculators and the hedge position of mining companies has mushroomed....In the final analysis, it is the physical Gold that matters, not the varied and numerous paper representations of Gold. The reason of course is delivery....What will happen when all the shorts in Gold seek to cover? The price will skyrocket. Let the short sellers take warning..."

Please give this text your attention by following the links to The Gilded Opinion via the USAGOLD HomePage, or be transported directly where the action is--

http://www.usagold.com/PapervsMetalTurk.html

Be sure to return to the Round Table for additional discussion. Your quest awaits!
Peter Asher
Do we want to talk about this war? Opinion please
A NATO official added that the purpose was not
to kill soldiers as such, but "if there happens to be
a crew in a tank, well that's that."

Well, that's succinct enough! This is starting to appear like a life imitates art situation of a Clancy genre'novel. Why doth our spokesmen protest so strongly about sending in ground troops. Is it politically correct for air strikes that 'might' cause loss of life, while avoiding the 'real thing' of hand to hand combat?


There is a common factor in the Kosovo war and the gold war. Illogical madness? Rape,pillage and burn? I try to be the group optimist on Forum, but I'm feeling a little challenged today.

I can't figure out how much is due to what's happening to those people over there, or due to what we are failing to do to stop it.
Aristotle
Hi Peter
I don't know about others, but this little war has sorta taken some wind out of my sails. I'm having a hard time getting my arms around it, so to speak. While I have an opinion on people dying for whatever cause, I haven't come to a conclusive opinion on this war because all information is first filtered through the propaganda machines on both sides. To be honest, I don't know if outside intervention was absolutely necessary, and if it was, who and how remain open to debate.
So that I'm not wasting USAGOLD's space, I'll make this relevant to gold. I've seen the news footage of the people fleeing Kosovo. Imagine if you had to decide what 98% of your life's "things" had to be left behind because you and your children can only carry a limited amount. How do you attempt to start over? What happens to banks and exchange rates of besieged nations? This is clearly one more fine example of the power of gold to make you a sovereign individual. As long as you retain the ability and wherewithal to pick up and go, having the product of your excess labour stored in highly portable and internationally accepted Gold makes the business of rebuilding your life infinitely more do-able. Reminds me of the story Michael Kosares tells at the beginning of his book (ABC's of Gold Investing--which is an excellent piece of work I might add. Has anyone else had a chance to read it? I was in Barnes & Noble Bookstore today and happened to see a copy on the shelf, but my copy is better. I don't know if I got special treatment as a Round Table poster, but when I ordered my book, it arrived signed by the author! Thanks Michael!) Anyway, back to the story...Michael described in his "A is for Asset Preservation" chapter a tale of a South Vietnamese family that escaped the fall of Saigon with little more than a few personal belongings and their wealth in gold. Had they fled to America with paper money, what success would they have had using that form of "wealth" to start rebuilding their lives?

Vietnam, and likely Kosovo...think of the refugees that are fortunate enough to have their wealth in Gold. Amazing, isn't it, that a small cache of yellow metal may make all the difference to some people's future prosperity? Meanwhile, a majority of Americans scoff at gold as a non-performing asset. Hah! I'd say that gold gives the performance of a lifetime!! I will never be without it. The reasons are endless as human history. ---Aristotle
sadus
IRS Criminal Investigator: Income Tax Unlawful!!
I just logged onto the forum, expecting to see feverish discussion on the subject of Joseph Bannister. Not seeing anything, I am compelled to post on this topic.

Bannister is an agent with the IRS Criminal Investigation Division. One day while driving in his car, he heard a "tax protester" on the radio, who was describing the basic philiosophy of the "tax protest" movement. The gist of it was that "tax protesters" are, in fact, IN AGREEMENT with income tax law. They are not protesting the law at all! In fact, they believe that the law does not actually make Americans liable to file an income tax return or to pay any income tax, and thus they are merely COMPLYING WITH THE LAW AS WRITTEN.

Bannister, a trained accountant who carried a gun for the IRS for over five years, had been well-indoctrinated by the IRS that tax protesters were kooks. He decided to research it out himself so that he could "shoot down" the claims of "tax protesters" by arguing from a position of well-researched knowledge.

What he found shocked him. After two years of research, he discovered:

1) The Income Tax is completely voluntary and there is no law requiring an American citizen, living and working in the United States, to file a tax return or to pay any income tax at all!!!!!

2) The Income Tax does NOT go to pay for any government services. Rather, it serves to pay the interest on the national debt!

Bannister wrote a 90 page report documenting his research, including information from the Constitution, the Internal Revenue Code, the IRS manual, and citing a number of court cases. He turned it over to his IRS superiors, asking that it be circulated as high in the organization as necessary until someone could give him some kind of response. He wanted to know where he was wrong, so that he could enforce the law properly. Alternately, if he was correct, he wanted confirmation so that he could stop enforcing non-existent law. After the report circulated in the highest levels of the IRS in Washington D.C., the IRS refused to provide any response, and asked for his resignation!

Fellow knights, this is late breaking news. The story of Bannister was just broken in WorldNetDaily (URL below). He just resigned on Feb 25th of this year! This man carries a lot of credibility, he is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. He has a wife and children, and he has just given up a secure, $80,000+ career for this act of principle. We are well aware of the incestuous relationship between the IRS and the Federal Reserve. This man needs to become a household name and quick, before the story becomes stale. I'm expecting it to be a large topic of discussion on talk radio come Monday, and it needs to be circulated on internet forums and across email to all of our friends and family.

Do we not have a right to ask our representatives why Joe Bannister is being refused a response to his diligent research? Don't we all deserve an answer to his expert questioning? Isn't it reasonable that the IRS simply produce a law that shows we are liable to pay this tax?

Of course, no such law exists. It would be unconstitutional. The IRS has always said the tax is voluntary, because it truly is. Please pass this URL and story on to everyone you know.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990326_xex_irs_special_.shtml
Aristotle
taxes
sadus, thanks for passing that story along. Very much of what is wrong in America today is a result of some departure from the Constitution through subterfuge in one form or another. Your comment does not surprise me--"Isn't it reasonable that the IRS simply produce a law that shows we are liable to pay this tax?" because it is also true that they cannot produce a document that Defines what a Dollar is. Under the Constitution, the Dollar is defined as a specific weight of precious metal. Today it is nothing more than a unit of unknown makeup that is specified in nearly all contracts under the terms of settlement. Personally, I prefer knowing what I'm getting. A free person has a right to contract however they best see fit. Choose gold. It's real. ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
sadus' message #3927 re: US Income Tax
May I suggest that by the 4/15/99 date, that you file a tax form and worry about the outcome of this matter later. That way we do not have to be sending you hard copies of the FORUM in Leavenworth.
<;-)
sadus
Aristotle
Thank you for your note. Being a fan of Rand, I am also a big fan of the historical Aristotle, especially for his contributions to the study of philosophy and ethics.

To those few not versed in what our own Aristotle is referring to, a "dollar" is defined in law as 371.25 grains of fine silver. The Constitution specifically prohibits our current form of monetary system. Which is to say:

1) It requires that gold and silver be used as money
2) It allows Congress to mint this money and set a standard of weights and measurements. (But grants no monopoly in this respect.)
3) It specifically prohibits bills of credit.
4) It specifically prohibits legal tender laws.

An important thing I'd like to point out is that the Federal Reserve act HAS been passed into law, and it allows the above travesties to occur. The law is unconstitutional, but it *does* exist. The distinction I am drawing is that there IS NO LAW WHATSOEVER that makes you liable to file a tax return or pay an income tax. In other words, the Internal Revenue Code as it stands today, though complex and incoherent, is NOT unconstitutional because it does NOT make you liable to pay an income tax. Such a law was passed once in the 1890's and it was quickly overturned by the Supreme Court.

I strongly urge everyone to read the story of Joe Bannister and circulate it amongst everyone you know. He is a monumental discovery with huge credibility, and he needs to become a household name. To Gandalf: note that Bannister himself doesn't recommend that you stop filing, because the IRS may very well go after you (although there are so many millions of non-filers now that they cannot nail them all.) Rather, Bannister merely wants to educate the public on the fact that the law requiring them to file and pay is NONEXISTENT. The point here is to promote awareness of the law and the fraud that is being perpetrated.

To Aristotle again: In reference to your statement "Choose gold," I would like to state for the record that I have completely converted 100% of my finances to gold. We have always argued in this forum that gold is money, not just a mere commodity. I don't just believe that, I live by it! All of my income is stored as gold, and every payment that I make comes directly out of that pot of gold. I do not hold a single Federal Reserve Note in my name and I probably never will again. I no longer live the hypocrisy of voting for smaller government while at the same time supporting the infinite expansion of government, through voluntary use (and therefore implicit condonement) of the fiat monetary system. After all, as long as they have the power to create money, they do not care how you vote. How many Knights at this table still signal their approval of fiat by owning and using it?

I would describe for you the mechanism which enables me to use gold, with such ease, for 100% of my finances, but I have already done so in a previous post, and I don't want to appear as (too much of) a shill.

I leave you with some quotes on Fiat:

Money is the most important subject intellectual persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it is widely understood and its defects remedied very soon.
Robert H. Hemphill, former credit manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Gold in the hands of the public is the enemy of the state.
Adolf Hitler

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks...will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered...
-Thomas Jefferson

History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance.
-James Madison

The borrower will be the servant of the lender.
-Holy Bible

Despite these warnings, Woodrow Wilson signed the 1913 Federal Reserve Act. A few years later he wrote:
I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men. -Woodrow Wilson

By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
-John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920. Keynes was one of the fathers of modern economics, and a great enemy of the gold standard.

Let me also mention that John Kennedy had introduced a system of silver-based money just prior to his assassination. LBJ promptly dismantled it.

travbfree
(No Subject)
test
onlychild
Travelling
After browsing today's posts, a question came to me that some of you may like to comment on. The refugees fleeing the Serbs brought this to mind. I have always felt a bit insucure leaving the country with nothing in my pocket besides USD's and plastic. Does anyone here travel with gold? If so what are the complications? Do you hide it or declare it? How much of it will go through a metal detector without setting it off?
On the tax thing: I know a group of individuals that tried to slide on filing, and they lost everything they owned. The IRS will confiscate bank accounts, real estate and personal property without due course of law, and right or wrong they will leave you destitute so that others can observe and take heed not to F--- with them. You will be holding a "Will work for legal assistance" sign on a busy street corner. They can tie up your assets so long that your children will turn to dust before the matter is resolved. I contracted for many years for the IRS, I have met the power hungry ego-maniacs that they hire. My advice is lay low, find all the legal loopholes you can, and hope that their fiat system comes crashing down around them soon.
Gandalf the White
onlychild's post
GREAT post onlychild --- I am looking forward to hear about the amount of gold of travelers too. Rules to amount of value taken into foreign countries is usually $10K before having to declare the currency. HOWEVER, some countries do not allow import of ANY gold without declaration and tariff.
<;-)
travbfree
Where the train goes...
Y2K...question.

Is Y2K a stepping stone??? A 'glitch in the system', being fueled unwittingly by the fears of the doomsdayers, who are creating concern enough to send the masses rushing to 'draw their savings' before the midnight bell dawns 2000. Would they receive more than a 'reality check'?? A reminder they truly are servants to the lender??? Would this 'pinching' of the banking industry become just cause for a wholly electronic monetary system? (Y3K compatable no doubt) Who doesn't know it's comming eventually? Has the banking industry ever enjoyed the cost of cash? Would the Richest man in Babylon control the whole planet? Would this fiat free society cover thier funny yellow shorts by proclaiming themselves a bullion illiterate state? (Gold doesn't 'do' telephone lines, nor does the general public have the sensibilities to own or use it).

Would this book be titled 'A Good Day on Wall Street'?

I've no plans to write such a book, I think the ending would be worse than the beginning but the thoughts of this senario have passed through my mind as I've been reading a few of these discussions over the past few weeks.
Peter Asher
Sadus
Can you give more data on the JFK silver money system?
Clint H
Sadus #3930
onlychild- good post

Sadus, when the high diver has his toes on the edge of the board is a poor time to give him a push. It is apparent to all that he is about to descend. Don't waste the effort.
Countless resources have been expended over the past 80+ years fighting this windmill. A lifetime spent on this cause will not generate wealth, only deplete resources.
Time spent in a manner taught by these noble knights will help build wealth. Time will reveal the fallacy of the present banking system. The future will hold a different system. Time will reveal how to best use the accumulated wealth carried forward into the new system.
Oil is the most important commodity in the world with gold being second. Time is the most precious commodity to an individual. With tme we create all other things. Use it wisely.
Accumulating gold could do it.
canamami
Replies
Stranger, Thank you for your kind comments. The Kaplan site is http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
It also includes daily changes to the COT on the Comex. The posts from SI I recall are those from a poster with the Internet identity of Lucretius Taurus, found on the "Dutch Central Bank" and "Waiting for the Kahuna" threads on SI. The site is http://www.techstoks.com/ I have also come across other similar posts, but did not note the relevant information.

Farfel, Thank you for your insight on Goldman's possible manipulation of the $Can and $Aus. I may be showing my investment inexperience, but is not the basis for the gold and yen carry trades the low interest/lease rates associated with yen and gold. The need to suppress gold flows from the need to manage currency fluctuation risk, because fluctuations could wipe out any benefits from low interest rates, and in fact cause a loss. On the other hand, I believe interest rates in Canada and the US are roughly comparable, so Goldman may be engaging in currency manipulation as part of its ordinary FOREX operations, but not a carry trade per se. Again, I speculating as a novice here, so I may be way off base.
ET
Peter

Hey Peter - no retiring for me either. Concerning Kennedy, it has long been rumored that the reason he was assassinated was this issue of money. He had intended to do away with the Federal Reserve and the CIA. You know what he and his brother got for their troubles. I always thought it a cruel joke and a subtle reminder to all about jacking with those that control the money that Kennedy's likeness appeared on the first non-silver quarter. After considering all the evidence concerning the reason for his death I still feel this is the most likely. What were we saying about all wars being economic in nature?

ET
SteveH
Libor or not Libor
From Kitco (but first: Stranger, www.goldminingoutlook.com is one source of COT info):

Date: Sat Mar 27 1999 23:29
Dabchick (lakefoil........your 19:30 on Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright � 1999 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You asked....."which way does the influence go in precious metal lease rates - lease rates affect price or vice versa or does it fluctuate"
In my opinion there is a lot of loose talk about the effect that lease rates have on the PM markets. I do not pretend to have the answer, and I hope that Ted Butler and RJ will resume their debate on this topic before too long, because I want to know the answer to your question myself.
FWIW, I don't see how you can "lease" gold unless you have some gold to "lease". The term "lease" in the context of the PM markets referred originally to the process ( as I understand it ) whereby a gold miner who had proven reserves in the ground ( but no fiat with which to pay workmen to get it out of the ground for him ) would sell it "forward" for fiat and use that fiat ( cash ) to pay the men to dig it out. It was a cheaper way to finance the operation than borrowing the fiat at the going rate ( eg LIBOR ) .
One reason why I laboriously post the LIBOR and the MGLR each day instead of just the Lease Rate is in a forlorn hope that people will see that if you want to borrow gold, you don't pay the Lease Rate...........you pay the MGLR = Mean Gold Lending Rate. If you are a Central Bank that is lending gold to the Bullion Banks, you don't get paid the Lease Rate by the Bullion Bank, you get paid the MGLR = Lending Rate. The lease rate is simply a measure of the "cheapness" of a gold-miner's financial arrangement with his Bullion Bank.
As in all Markets, it is Supply and Demand which affects price. If demand for gold goes up relative to supply, the price goes up, and vice versa. Likewise, in a "Futures" market, "perception" of what is likely to happen to a price of ( eg gold ) in the future is what determines its future price. The Gold Lending Rate ( MGLR ) is derived directly from the market's perception of that future price , and that in turn inversely affects the so-called "Lease" rate because the "Lease" rate is simply the difference between the rate ( at which fiat can be borrowed in the money market ) , and the MGLR. ie Lease Rate = LIBOR minus MGLR.
The current, blatant, downward manipulation of the gold price relative to fiat is simply achieved by flooding the gold market with gold. This over-supply is achieved by convincing ( as I understand it, mainly the smaller ) CB's to lend out their gold to speculators who have been convinced by A Greeenspan that borrowing it from the CB's for short periods at a time can be profitable to them.
Confused ???????????? I am ! But on the whole I think we have to view Lease rates as an effect rather than as a cause of anything.
Regards...........Dabchick
ET
Peter

Hey Peter - after posting my last message it occured to me that Kennedy was on the halve. I'm afraid my brain is working at one quarter speed this morning.

ET
USAGOLD
E-mail Question for Farfel...
Do you believe, or think it is even likely, that the real reason to
depress the $Canadian and $Aussie was to get both countries to "cough
up" their gold reserves, which they clearly did do, in response in part
at least to their depressed currencies? The question would be, who
bought their gold? I would expect that G Sacks may know that also.

Name witheld by request.
onlychild
Repost from late saturday night, in case you missed it.
After browsing today's posts, a question came to me that some of you may like to comment on. The refugees fleeing the Serbs brought this to mind. I have always felt a bit insucure leaving the country with nothing in my pocket besides USD's and plastic. Does anyone here travel with gold? If so what are the complications? Do you hide it or declare it? How much of it will go through a metal detector without setting it off?
On the tax thing: I know a group of individuals that tried to slide on filing, and they lost everything they owned. The IRS will confiscate bank accounts, real estate and personal property without due course of law, and right or wrong they will leave you destitute so that others can observe and take heed not to F--- with them. You will be holding a "Will work for legal assistance" sign on a busy street corner. They can tie up your assets so long that your children will turn to dust before the matter is resolved. I contracted for many years for the IRS, I have met the power hungry ego-maniacs that they hire. My advice is lay low, find all the legal loopholes you can, and hope that their fiat system comes crashing down around them soon.
The Stranger
canamami and SteveH
Thanks, guys.
woodsman
James Turk remarks again
A thought for all, take a look at www.lemetropolecafe.com post of 3/27 at the Dos Passos table. It tells the story of Ed Durrell who tried to get an audit of Tsy gold holdings but never got a straight answer. Then Turk tells of a friend who believes that LBJ may have secretly sold most of this gold in London in early l968 to stop dollar redemtion pressures only to find that it was all swallowed up at $35 and the ploy failed. Shortly thereafter the Bretton Woods Agreement was ended and a "two-tiered system" introduced. Perhaps this would explain some of the unexplainables.about this market. Woodsman.
sadus
Clint H / Peter Asher
Clint H: Thank you for your post. I think you misunderstand my intentions. I am neither becoming a tax protester nor urging those in this group to do so. Even Joe Bannister recommends against it, saying that the IRS may very well try to nail you for doing that (albeit illegally.)

Bannister's goal (and mine) is merely to spread the truth as far and wide as possible. This is an incredible opportunity... An agent from the IRS Criminal Investigative Division has spent 2 years researching tax law and written a report which states that there IS NO LAW which makes us liable to file a return or to pay the income tax. He asked his superiors to show him the law that he is enforcing, and they refused, instead asking him to resign.

This man has huge credibility. He's not asking people to stop paying taxes. Rather, he is trying to spread the word. He gave up his career to do this. Can we not assume, in the absence of a response from the IRS, that his report is correct? This is breaking news, these events have just transpired. People should be talking about them. The story should be spread to our friends and family until Joe Bannister becomes a household name. Nothing will be done about our tax law until the people are at least made aware that the law itself doesn't even exist! I was not aware of this fact myself and I am certainly glad that I found out.

Knowledge is a good thing. As goldbugs, we are also interested in spreading awareness about the Federal Reserve itself. I don't know how many people I've asked "do you know where our money comes from?" And they have absolutely no idea. How many people know that the Fed creates our money and then loans it to us at interest, thus giving us a system where the rate of credit expansion must increase indefinitely, periodically punctuated by periods of deflation/depression and property confiscation? If people were only AWARE that this is going on...

And of course, the income tax and the Federal Reserve are relatives of the closest incestuous sort. They were created in the same year, and the tax itself is only necessary to pay the interest on the national debt to the Federal Reserve!! Even if we do nothing about it, awareness of the truth about these two institutions can have a large effect on the public. And don't we all have a right to know? The media certainly doesn't intend to tell us!

Peter Asher: JFK signed Executive Order 11.110 on June 4th 1963, which issued a silver-backed, debt-free currency. I believe the dollars were meant to be traded one-for-one for Federal Reserve Notes. He created, in cash, $4,292,893,825 of United States Notes. Several months later, he was "made a public example of," on the anniversary of the original meeting on Jekyll Island. For those who have not read "The Creature from Jekyll Island" you can get a copy from the John Birch Society. Only one day after Kennedy was assassinated, the money he issued was called out of circulation and eventually destroyed. The executive order still exists today and could be invoked at any time, by any President who wishes to end up dead.

So you see, you only have to kill a few of them and the rest will stay in line!

On the subject of awareness, keep these quotes in mind:

Rothschild, a London Banker, wrote a letter saying "It [the Central Bank] gives the National Bank almost complete control of national finance. The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class... The great body of the people, mentally incapable of comprehending, will bear its burden without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical [contrary] to their interests."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Elect, elect, elect, tax, tax, tax, spend, spend, spend, for the people are too damned stupid to understand."
Harry Hopkins, aide to Franklin D. Roosevelt

Perhaps this shines new light on the push to create a national education system?
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Introducing a Cashless Society in Nigeria (Oil and Gold Producer)
My apologies for the length of this article. I stumbled onto it in an African Daily Newspaper and it just goes to show how far the Beast is stretching his/her/their hand.


Business Vanguard
Developing the Nigerian payment system towards a Cashless economy
By Babajide Rogers

IN the 1999 budget presentation, the Federal Government announced its determination to further discourage the use of
cash by encouraging the chequeing habit. The fact that this featured in the budget pronouncement is an evidence of the importance government attaches to the payment system. Nothing less is expected as money is the heart of the financial system of any nation. The financial system as in any economy serves as a pivot for economic growth and the vehicle on which real sector performance is hinged.

Without a sound and reliable financial system, there cannot be an efficient economy. The developmental phenomenal in the financial sector is therefore positively linked to the
happenings in the real sector.

However, a major barometer for measuring a sound financial system is the efficiency of the payment system. The payment system represents the mechanism for the settlement of personal and business transactions. A sound and efficient payment system must necessarily be characterised by reliability, security, fastness and confidence. This is why
over the years the human race has consistently been striving towards improving on the existing payment mechanism in order to achieve the above mentioned characteristics.
Starting from the barter system to cowries, manilla, ivory, etc and other forms of payment and then to cash, cheques, transfers etc, payment system has now moved to electronic purse and other forms of sophisticated funds transfer e.g. Credit card, Debit card, Automatic Teller Machine (ATM), etc.

It is my objective in this paper to critically review the payment system in Nigeria as a payment mechanism as we approach the turn of the century. This paper is divided into
six parts. Part I is the introduction. Part 2 reviews the issue in payment system.

Part 3 examines the trends in payment solution in Nigeria while part 4 looks at the imperative of cards system as payment instrument in Nigeria. Part 5 concludes the discussion.

Issues in payment system
========================
The payment system in any economy represents one of its nerve centres. It provides the link between the real sector and the financial sector. A vibrant payment system coming
on the heels of a vibrant banking industry will undoubtedly accelerate economic growth.

Three distinct broad means of payment mechanism or instruments of settling financial obligations have been identified:

a) Cash i.e. currency notes and coins
b) Non-cash instruments including paper-based
instruments such as cheques, drafts, debit/credit
notes etc.

c) Electronic and card systems such as Automated Teller
Machines (ATM), Debit Card, Credit Card and all forms
of Payment Card.

The dominance of any of these three in any economy indicates
the level of development and sophistication of the financial system of such an economy. For example, an economy where cash represents the dominant settlement mechanism is an underdeveloped economy whereas an economy where the use of electronic payment is prevalent can easily said to be
developed. In the same manner, experience has shown that efficiency and cost are closely linked with the type of payment system. For instance, the most inefficient and costliest payment system is cash transactions while the most efficient and least costly is the Cards System.

For decades, cash has been the major means of settling financial obligations. Even in the primitive era, one product or the other had always represented money. As the world advances, innovations are introduced to what can be accepted as money. Most of these innovations focus on
acceptability and convenience. Thus, over the ages, there has been the recognition that money or cash has its own costs.

In the modern day economy, notes and coins represents cash, which are produced by the state at cost. These costs include currency and coin issuing to the issuing authority including the cost of production, storage,processing, distribution and security.
As a matter of fact, it has always been said that the cost
of printing certain notes and coins is greater than their intrinsic values.

Cash also carries a lot of cost for holders and financial institutions. These associated cost include the cost of insurance and security (escort staff, policemen, etc). Other costs that are now peculiar to us are the currency sorting fees (which is now N5,000 per box charged by the CBN) and the cost of infrastructure (fuel, motor-vehicles, note counting machines, etc) as well as manpower requirements.
Again, with high velocity of money, currency printing is even more frequent because the currency notes have to be replaced more often. This is with the attendant cost implication especially for manpower and equipment depreciation.

One fundamental issue in our economy is that a large proportion of cash is always outside the banking system thereby weakening the effect of monetary policies. It thus creates problems for monetary management and inflation control. This is because the large proportion of money outside the banking system makes planning difficult and estimation or projection inaccurate.

On the part of individuals, the needless phenomenon of moving around with boundless or bags of cash is very dangerous and inconvenient especially considering the amount of money one needs to carry in the face of small currency denominations, inflation and currency depreciation.

Cash economy encourages high incidence of armed robbery and in most cases, warrants extra security costs. When armed robbers attack at home, office or even on the road, the first object of demand is cash. Traders have paid dearly for this with some loosing their precious lives, their entire
business capital and others their investments. It has also precipitated a number of accidents on our highways.

Paper Payment Instruments
=========================
The introduction of paper instruments was a step above cash system. Instruments in this category include cheques, drafts, money and postal orders as well as other forms of
bills of exchange. The clearing system plays a critical role in this arrangement and remains the main mechanism of settling payment obligations by individuals and businesses through their bankers. Unfortunately, the incidences of fraud, forgery and dud cheque diminish the rate and level of acceptability of these instruments as means of payment settlement. Inability to honour due obligations has made the use of other non-cash instruments like postal order, luncheon vouchers, fuel vouchers, etc unpopular in Nigeria. Moreso, the problems associated with our clearing system are such that there is delay in obtaining value arising from a number of reasons.

The Card System - The Plastic Money
===================================
However, the payment mechanism worldwide has greatly been enhanced following the introduction of the electronic funds transfer and cards system. Apart from the direct link
established among the bank branches on-line in real time, the use of card is now in vogue.
The ATM offers 24-hours service for a wide range of services including but not limited to cash withdrawal, balance inquiry, movement of funds among accounts, cash deposit
and cheque settlement with other forms of financial obligations. In view of the problems associated with cash and non-cash instruments, the world is moving away from a cash society to the world of plastics, "the cashless society". In the advanced economies, banking practices are characterised by electronic banking backed up with great giant strides in communications. The race towards a cashless society has commenced and next millennium would definitely be dominated by this.

Trends in payment solution in Nigeria
=====================================
The payment system in Nigeria has not witnessed the required and expected changes vis-a-vis the contemporary phenomenal in the global financial markets. A cursory look at the journey so far would confirm this.

Commercial banking activities came to the area now known as Nigeria in 1892. The second bank was not established until 1917. These two banks monopolised the industry until 1933 when the third and the first indigenous bank was established. As at the time the CBN was established in 1959, only 8 banks were in operation. With the establishment of CBN, growth became fairly rapid with four banks established that same year alone.

It was the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) introduced in 1986 by the Babangida administration that revolutionalised the banking system in Nigeria. Licensing
of banks was deregulated. By 1991, the number of banks (commercial and merchant) had risen to about 120. In addition to these are the Community Banks, the People's
Bank of Nigeria and the mortgage institutions and other non-bank financial institutions e.g. the finance houses. All these impact the payment system.

However, the financial industry ran into troubled waters in the early 1992 leading to distress in the sector and climaxing in the collapse of many non-bank financial
institutions and withdrawal of licences of about 32 banks to date. It is not necessary here to reopen discussion on the issue of distress. It is sufficient to note that this event
exacerbated the problem of crisis of confidence in the financial system.

I have gone down memory lane to bring to the fore the fact that crisis of confidence remains one single factor for high dependence on cash transactions in Nigeria, even with all its attendant implications and costs.

The declining confidence in the financial system explains the dual observed trends of high level of cash outside the banking system and the volume of cash transactions even
within the banking industry. In 1986, currency in circulation was N5.7 billion, moving to
N96.1 billion in 1994 and N144.8 billion in 1997. In the same manner, currency outside the banking system was N5.2 billion in 1986, increased to N36.8 billion in 1992 and had moved to N107.1 billion in 1997. One significant observation is that while 91 per cent of the money in circulation was outside the banking system in 1986, 94 per cent was the situation in 1994 and 92 per cent in 1996 implying that there was no noticeable improvement over a ten-year period. With this high level of the ratio of money outside the banking system to total money supply, the use of cash relative to other payment instruments in settling financial obligations is among the highest in the world. Thus the dependence on cash subsists. I would like to confirm that there is a high level correlation between the confidence in the banking system and the proportion of money held by the non bank public.

In the same manner, the use of non-cash instruments especially cheques has remained insignificant in transacting business over the years in Nigeria. The value of chequeing
transaction was N24.2 billion in 1985 from 6.6 million worth of instruments. By 1994, the value had risen to N530 billion from 10.3 million worth of instruments. A significant improvement was noticed in the value of transactions in 1996, which stood at N1.13 trillion although the number of instruments was 11.38 million. Surprisingly, there was a
decline in the value of clearing transaction in 1997 to N1.12 trillion and number of instruments was 8.8 million. However, a good index of performance is to look at this
vis-a-vis the GDP which has confirmed the value of cheque transaction to be insignificant.

The Federal Government through the regulatory agencies and monetary policies made concerted efforts to enhance the use of non-cash instruments in Nigeria. The promotion of the establishment of Discount Houses, the establishment of the Nigerian Interbank Settlement Systems (NIBSS) and the introduction of the Magnetic Ink Character Recognition (MICR) represented efforts in the direction of enhancing vibrancy in money market activities. In more specific terms, a number of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms have over the years been introduced in the clearing system which have resulted in systematic bringing down of number of days to obtain value through the clearing system.

Again there have been legislations to buoy the confidence in the use of cheques to settle transactions. The Dishonoured Cheque (Offences) Decree No. 44 of 1997, the Bannkruptcy Act of 1979 and the Failed Banks (Recovery of Debts) and Financial Malpractices in Banks Decree No. 18 of 1994 represent the attempt, among other measures, to deal with the incidence of dud cheques, problems of bad loans and fraud and generally move towards sanitising the banking industry and restoring public confidence.

At the operators� level, a number of innovations and facilities have been introduced to improve on efficiency in the payment system. The introduction of hi-tech automation for on-line in realtime transactions, Saturday banking, extended banking hours, etc are among specific steps taken individually by banks to enhance turn-around time, banking
habit and chequeing system. On our part at Gulf Bank of Nigeria Plc, we have introduced the Gulf Supranet System which offers Home/Office Banking Services, Telephone Banking Services and Electronic Card Products, among others.

All these notwithstanding, there are still a number of challenges that would continue to hinder the efficiency and the confidence of the banking public on the present payment
system.

Industrial actions, amongst others, by employees of banks like the one recently witnessed in the CBN which crippled the clearing system and by extension the payment system for seven days, would continue to hamper efficient payment
system. Other factors include the political and macro-economic environment, infrastructural defeciencies, etc.

In view of all these problems and limitations, one major option open to us is to move with the world. The world's advanced economies have commenced the journey towards a cashless economy. Nigeria should now begin an aggressive campaign towards the same direction. Hence the adoption of the Electric Purse or the Cards System is inevitable.

Plastic money as payment instruments
=====================================
Cards and the card system originated in the US in the early 50's. By the end of the '60s, it has spread to France and Germany. It is now rapidly spreading across the world. However, this means of payment is relatively unknown in sub-Sahara Africa. Initially, it started as credit cards but has not gained more applications.

In Nigeria, the introduction of the electronic purse scheme was pioneered by Allstates Trust Bank through ESCA (Electronic Smart Card Account) in 1995. Since then, Diamond Bank and New World Merchant Bank have also ventured into the
cards scheme. However, their efforts have not had significant impact on the payment system in Nigeria.

There are now many varieties of plastic card. Plastic cards can take the form of any of credit cards, debit cards, cheque/bank guarantee cards, smart cards, electronic purse or even a multi-functional one.

The Electronic Purse involves the storing of money value independent of a bank account. This card can be loaded with cash either by the use of Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) or through a bank's branch. The purse therefore holds an electronic equipment of cash and can be used to obtain cash or settle payment obligations in shops, hotels, supermarkets, restaurants, fuel stations, hospitals, etc. Thus, the use has spread into payment for transactions, health care, public transport and communications.

This payment system is able to minimise the problems identified with cash and payment non-cash instruments and it is of great benefit to customers, merchants and the economy.

Its advantages over these are legion. Firstly, it eliminates cash counting process in the outlets where it is used with the attendant implications of stamping out cash pilferage,
enhance efficiency and reduce waiting time as transaction involving large amount of money are concluded in seconds.

The card system guarantees safe movement of large of money. The security of the card is always high requiring of embodying image and/or signature verification and Personal
Identification Number (PIN) verification. The issue of currency counterfeiting also becomes a thing of the past.

Furthermore, card system is capable of reducing fraud involving movement of cash and cash payments thereby minimising the rising level of crime and the threat to physical carrying of cash. Also, it guarantees immediate value for services rendered rather than waiting for clearing days.

Where the system is run together by a number of banks, it affords the card carrier either the opportunity to withdraw or load money at any branch of any bank in the scheme. It
is therefore easily carried, ready for use anywhere and ideally meets the needs of today's mobile information society.
The card system is very convenient as there is no need for police escorts, security vans, note counting machines, etc. Also, there is no reason for note counting, currency
sorting, etc. It is also not heavy to carry and customers can load their card to the maximum allowable limit depending on the use and type of cards.

In a situation where card is used to effect payment for goods and services, it provides numerous advantages too to the merchants. It saves their time and cost as no counting
of cash is involved. Theft, armed robbery, cash shortages and pilferages, cash handling costs, etc are all eliminated. It also reduces costs such as the purchase of counting
machines and fake currency detection equipment.

For the entire economy, the card system prolongs the life of currency in circulation due to reduced usage. It also leads to improved security as armed robbery and other fraudulent tendencies are reduced. In addition, it introduces vibrancy into the payment system and by extension the economy.

Further observation made is that such a payment system requires a minimum infrastructural level. It has been argued that the card system is a sophisticated mechanism requiring highly developed communications, accounting, clearing and
settlement systems that are lacking in our own economy. Our economy is characterised by poor infrastructure especially telecommunications.

When this is added to the fact that the environment is fraught with high incidence of fraud and financial mal-practices, it becomes easy to note that he introduction of the card system in this kind of environment may require high capital outlay.

Furthermore, questions have been raised as to the security of the system and how fraud-free it is. Question as to what happens if the card is lost, strays into a wrong hand
or the cardholder is dead. Other issues are legal in nature.

These are just few of the many problems that have been identified. However, all these are no insurmountable problems if the financial system is ready to go ahead with the scheme. There is need for banks to come together to forge ahead. The formation of the consortium to promote Valucard is a welcome development. There is also the
association formed by some banks to introduce Gemcard into the Nigerian market. The Nigerian banking industry is already acquiring the sophistication witnessed among its
counterparts in the developed countries. It is certain that if we come together and with the level of computerisation going on in the industry there cannot be any problem in
evolving this.

The financial system has recorded significant progress in electronic transfers through the Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS). Evolving a settlement/clearing and administration system that will be efficient is therefore not in doubt. What is required is the support of the government and the regulatory authorities.

Conclusion
==========
As a matter of priority, there is need to provide infrastructural facilities especially in the area of communications and indeed appropriate legislation and support that would enhance the confidence of the banking public in these products. Nigeria and indeed Africa cannot afford to be left behind on this journey towards a cashless society. I firmly believe that the cards system is the way to the future of the payment system in Nigeria.

Thank you for your attention.
TownCrier
Sunday news (after you've caught up on Gilded Opinion updates!)
HEADLINE: WALL ST WEEK AHEAD - Treading the FOMC minefield--March 28 (Reuters)

Good summary of current affairs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990328/bw.html
-----------
HEADLINE: Fed to keep U.S. rates on hold as economy thrives--March 28 (Reuters)

Uncertainty rules the day; economy on a razor's edge.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990328/8.html
-----------
HEADLINE: Stock Valuations Continue To Amaze--March 28 (AP)

Dow up more than 50% since Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" warning
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990328/ticker_tal_1.html
-----------
beesting
Gandalf and Onlychild.
Question was asked has anybody tried to carry Gold in or out of the country of thier domain?
As a personal experiment in 1996 I carried 2 1/10th ounce Gold Panda's in my wallet, value at the time about $110.00 retail.
All Airports had metal detectors'some Airports multiple metal detectors.I never declared any Gold to any customs agents anywhere,and assumed for such a small amount it wasn't necessary to declare it,as I had no intention of selling or bartering with it.
Itinerary: San Francisco to Hawaii to American Samoa to Western Samoa to New Zealand,And back again the same route.Total of at least 10 times thru metal detectors.Results:
Not one time did the detectors sound an alarm!!! Conclusion: either 1/10th ounce Gold coins are to small to detect or the metal detectors are designed to pick up steel,iron,copper, and other industrial metals only.Since the price of a Kilo Gold bar is currently under $10,000 I would assume it is not illegal to hand carry it out of the U.S. with out reporting it.(See Gandalfs post on reporting requirements.)All countries have different rules and regulations on everything tho, so I would try my best to check the rules and regs.on your final destination before departure from home base.

Upon my arrival in New Zealand I did learn where to convert my coins into local New Zealand Fiat currency,price was about the same as U.S.Fiat currency.None of the airports objected to many metal objects in my hand carry luggage,they did want to inspect however.Hope this helps.
I would like to know if anyone has shipped Gold internationally,and what are the requirements in and out of the U.S.A.? Thanks In Advance.............beesting
Aristotle
Forms of money
sadus, WAC, and Travbfree have recently posted things had contained a common theme: Forms of money. I want to explore that a bit. WAC and Travbfree, you will find relevance to your ideas or concerns in my dialog with sadus.

First of all, sadus...you are a person after my own heart! 100% Gold! (by the way, as a demonstration of respect, I shall endeavor to always spell Gold using a capital "G." I noticed in the Gilded Opinion piece "Paper vs. Metal" that James Turk does the same thing (for the same reason?))
Almost all funds over which I have discretionary power is held in the form of Gold, as I've elaborated in the past. But convenience can't lightly be dismissed, and it isn't "selling out" to personally use FRN's as appropriate. Say for example your closest buddies all go to the local watering hole to discuss Gold and whatnot over a few pints. How do you pay the tab and tip the waitress if you don't have the denomination of money they require? The form of the money becomes an issue too, depending on the size of the bill. Cash works well for small amounts, and checks or plastic for larger amounts. I know you are a proponent of e-gold (tm), and I've come to my own conclusion that D. Jackson and company have their heads bolted on right. They could easily be one of us. I would trust them more than I would trust any so-called "respectable banker" out there. But I would not have ALL of my eggs in that basket. What if Y2K makes that money as inaccessible as any other? Granted, with e-gold there will not be a problem with a run on the bank...all money on deposit is actually there to cover 100% withdrawal requests. But if the power grid or telecommunications go off-line....Phfffffffffftt! You wealth is safe, yet inaccessible. I do see the e-gold (tm) system as the future of banking, but unless I couldn't possibly arrange safe storage closer to home, I wouldn't have ALL my Gold wealth in the e-gold system. I'd have just enough there to meet my transactional needs--similar to the situation today were people don't have all of their cash in a checking account, but rather, just enough.
For the same reasons that we each choose Gold as whatever percentage of our wealth, we would also want to have some of that Gold in a form that we could READILY lay our hands on--wouldn't you agree?

Keeping the e-gold(tm) system in mind is helpful when reading the Nigerian article posted by WAC. Some people tend to misidentify where the various faults lie. Electronic money, for example, isn't a bad thing necessarily. In fact, as sadus has found, it is electronics that allow him to use his Gold very easily for daily transactional needs. When transactions take place between e-gold(tm) users, the electronic payment is nothing more than a transfer of title over the specified amount of Gold. Similarly, modern electronic banking conveniently transfers control of dollars from one account to another (notice I did not say ownership or title?). It should be agreed by everyone that modern electronics have paved the way for a return to using Gold as common money. The true fault lies with the "commodity" being swapped during transfers, not the transfer process itself. The fault lies with the dollar, and the fact that its supply can be increased easily through fractional lending by banks...ALL banks, not exclusively the Fed.
Bill Murphy's good post yesterday, and James Turk's essay on The Gilded Opinion both showed how producer hedging and speculator short selling has been taking a toll on Gold much like fractional reserve lending. The supply has been artificially expanded, and the day of reckoning can be quite unsettling for those who did not anticipate its arrival. When the people demand some settling of accounts (likely in anticipation of Y2K), and Gold and the dollar go head to head to square the books, the dollar will surely be the big loser. ---Aristotle
Aragorn III
To beesting
You may be interested to learn that I recently concluded an international transfer of gold from the Central Bank of Latvia. Although I cannot illuminate the issue of shipping requirements. I do know that this gold passed through customs, quite properly, as currency. The shipment arrangements were the bank's, not mine, so your question remains unanswered in detail, if not in substance. What will certainly be of interest to you and to all other knights is that this gold is internationally valued at $335 per troy ounce, even as the small person may find delivery through unofficial channels (such as is to be found at USAGOLD or others) at $280 per ounce. "Interesting", to say nothing more. Let us quote ANOTHER knight with unified voice... "We watch this new gold market together, yes?"
SteveH
April gold now...
$280.00 (up!)
Gandalf the White
To Goldfly
Remember, Goldhearts, NEVER QUIT !
--
When things go wrong, as they sometimes will,
When the road you're trudging seems all uphill,
When funds are low and debts are high
And you want to smile, but you have to sigh,
When care is pressing down a bit,
Rest if you must, BUT do not you QUIT !

Success is failure turned inside out --
Silver lines the clouds of doubt,
And you can never tell how close you are,
It may be near, when it seems so far.
So, stick with the fight when you're hardest hit --
It's after things seem worst, RAINBOWS glow, so you must NOT QUIT.
====
Anonynous
<;-)
beesting
AragornIII
Thanks for the quick illuminating reply.It seems we do indeed have a two tiered Gold market.World Spot plus a $55.00 per ounce markup and that may be just the beginning.
We all watch this new Gold market together..........beesting
Aragorn III
to beesting
Yes. We do get a glimpse that the international institutions of any consequence do not hold the dollar so dear as one might be led to believe by the published price in the New York Times.
To pick up crumbs at a 20% discount to the "big shoppers" is worth the effort of stooping, do you agree? I have found this advice to be of service: keep your back straight, and bend at the knees, not at the waist!
Mooski
Two Tiered gold prices
Evenin!

The 'dual' (spot vs physical) market that is now starting to become (obviously) in effect is nowhere near FRN$55.

I would say that the difference works out to about FRN$25-30. (And hey, an extra 1/10 or 1/4 oz Eagle when making a minor purchase is always helpful...)

The more I think about it, the more I realize that we may see a THREE Tiered gold price (for a short time), during a Y2K induced bank run.

Price one - Our favorite controlled Spot Price. Btwn 280-290.

Price two - The POG if you want to use a check, credit card, or bank wire transfer. Pry around 1000-2000.

Price three - The POG if you have actual, physical dollar bills. Pry around 200-250.

Then when the physical supply of FRN's start meeting supply, then we'll go back to a dual tiered gold price. (What, the spot price won't be manipulated anymore?)

-Vache
Price two -
Aristotle
Exchange Rates and Gold "Purchases"
Wake up! (not you, me. The Shawshank Redemption is being shown on late night TV--a great movie that I can't allow myself to miss. Hope, dreams, and freedom!)

I have a rhetorical question for the round table. It deserves your attention and consideration, and if someone feels compelled to offer comments, all the better.
Anyone keeping score knows that my payday approaches with the end of the month. They also know that it is directly deposited into my checking account, where most of my monthly bills are automatically withdrawn. I reserve enough Convenience Cash to meet the month's worth of trivial- and entertainment-type expenses, and the remaining funds are converted to Gold without hesitation.

Here's my question: There are probably a fair number of people out there who see the value in having Gold, but they haven't yet "purchased" any in the hopes of better prices. What's the deal?? (See, I TOLD you it was a rhetorical question!)

This is the way it is. Gold is REAL, permanent money; whereas dollars, pesos, yen, rubles, etc are simply temporary imitations of money--though granted, some are better than others. One doesn't buy Gold like one buys groceries. It is more like a currency exchange. Think of it that way.

OK, now that we're on the same page, when your own payday arrives, do you tell your company "No, wait! Don't pay me until I can check the exchange rates of the dollar versus the peso, the ruble, the yen, or whatnot. I don't want my pay unless or until the dollar is as low as it will ever get." Of course you don't say that. In fact, you probably can't get paid fast enough to suit your liking. Paid in a temporary, substandard currency. Imagine that! Doesn't it naturally follow, that after your dollar-denominated bills are paid, you would then want to complete the payday process for REAL, doing the currency exchange for Gold? So what do you do to make up for past paydays left unconverted to the real deal? Well, my friends, you've lucked out and face the best opportunity of your lifetime...because it just so happens that the dollar is high versus all else, and Gold is as low as its been (vs. the dollar) in twenty years. So if you DO pause to first ask "Is Gold as low as it will ever get?" The answer comes back "It's definitely close!" But then, why ask? It's payday! Just TAKE the "easy money!"

Gold. Get you some. (And be sure to wink and nod to the Castle's treasury guards...they've been expecting you. They already know me by sight.) ---Aristotle
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Gold in Survival Kit
Is it true that the US service personnel's survival kit consists of about $1500 in physical Gold, as well as protein tablets, elctronic gadgetry etc. I am told the Gold is for bribing the locals in foreign lands. Would not the 'mighty' US $ serve the same purpose?
SteveH
April gold now...
higher, now at $280.40, was $280.60 earlier. Now at top of 10-minute bollinger cycle band, but at the abosolute bottom of the lower daily bollinger band. Top is still $295.00!
Aristotle
Survival Kit
WAC,
I last read about these survival in Michael K's "ABC's" book of Gold investing. I don't have it within reach at the moment, but I recall there being at least two different kits...one for european operations, and one for SEasian ops. I think the gold in the european kit consists of some sovereigns and a gold watch, whereas the asian kit has some gold taels and rings or a chain.
As you've probably already guessed, the gold is to be used whenever money is needed for bribes or purchase of needed goods during any escape or evasion ground manuevers that become necessary. Gold whispers in the dark, whereas greenbacks shout "HEY! I'm the American you are all looking for!" I wonder if having the Gold close at hand in these survival kits ends up having an insidious effect of turning the pilots into Goldhearts later in life?

By the ways, when things are slow at the Round Table, I have found that the archives are great for a "fix", just pick a date at random. And if you are travelling or otherwise can't get to a computer, I've found that the "ABC's" book is equally good for a fix! ---Aristotle
Aristotle
gads! error-ridden.
must...find...coffee.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Gold up. Option expiry. Good news from Anglogold. More on CB borrowing.
ARKET UPDATE (3/29/99): Gold bounced back this morning in nervous London
trading associated with option expiry there. Lease rates came down a hair as some gold
found its way to the market. On Friday, Reuters quoted one London trader as saying that
some central bank could have been borrowing gold -- an intriguing and perhaps bullish turn
of events if true. Today all traders will admit to is "some central bank activity without being
precise as to its nature. ``Our bet is on a sizable intervention by a central bank, though
whether this is a swap, a collateral deal or an outright sale is not yet clear,'' it added. "I've
got the feeling that we have found a base for now although the market is very nervous,''
said one London dealer.

In an interesting development announced by Bridge News this morning, "The world's
largest gold producer, South Africa's Anglogold, is to embark on market development
activities in partnership with the World Gold Council (WGC) and other agencies to market
gold. In its 1998 annual review, released today, Anglogold said it has set aside US $21
million annually for market development in gold." Anglogold has been one of the mining
firms with a strong hedge position and this could signal a change in the philosophy at the
South African giant's corporate headquarters. This move by Anglo is probably associated
with the change of leadership at WGC and the new strategy to emphasize gold ownership for
asset preservation purposes. There has been some talk of Anglogold marketing its own coin
directly to the public in competition with U.S. Eagles, Austrian Philharmonics, Canadian
Maple Leafs, etc.

FWN reports that dealers in New York are awaiting open interest figures on Friday's trading
which featured very heavy volumes. Friday's volume was estimated at 102,000 ounces by
one trader. Simultaneously, the commitment of traders report shows that commercials are
heavily long again -- an indicator that the price trend might turn up again. What can be said
in gold's behalf after Friday's showdown is that it held up well in the face of large sales.
Mr. Insider tells us that some central bank borrowed gold, but probably borrowed it to sell
it. If that's true, I would like to understand what motivated the wheel spinning. To what
end? I think there is probably more to this than meets the eye and we will watching the wire
for more information on the situation as the day moves forward.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if warranted. Have a good day.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

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newsletter.
Aristotle
A big week, this one.
OPEC's production limits take effect April 1st, and the ECB marks their Gold valuation for the next quarter at the March 31 market price. Does anyone recall what value has been in use by the ECB since December 31st? ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
some fun from Kaplan's goldminingoutlook.com
El Gato Gordo--A Fat Cat Looks at Gold (An Exclusive Interview)
We have the special privilege today of being able to interview El Gato Gordo, also known as the Fat Cat of Gold. El Gato Gordo is generally unwilling to give interviews, and has lately been busy with several projects, so we truly
appreciate the time he has donated to us as a special guest of Gold Mining Outlook. Of course that is not his real name, which he wishes to keep anonymous.

GMO: Good morning, El Gato. Thank you for joining us today. What is your opinion about the current state of the gold market?
El Gato: Geez, it's hard to tell what to think, there's so much collusion that it's hard to see the forest for the trees. For example, Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin are trying to keep the price of gold down, and they have enlisted the top brokerages on Wall Street to help them out.
GMO: Exactly how does this collusion work?
El Gato: They borrow as much gold as they can from central banks, then they dump it on the market. That's it in a nutshell.
GMO: When I borrow money from a bank to purchase a house, I have to make monthly payments to the bank. Don't these borrowers have to repay the gold periodically to the central banks, and wouldn't this be gradually pushing up the price?
El Gato: Look, don't try to confuse me with the facts. Collusion is collusion. Maybe it's a special loan they don't have to actually pay back, they get some kind of under the table payment in Swiss bank accounts, or a villa and a yacht, or whatever. It's some kind of a pyramid scheme, I think they started with Greenspan's wife's gold necklace and from that one necklace they're up to over a
trillion dollars in gold loans. These guys can use margin like we can only dream of.
GMO: I see. How do recent developments in world stock markets affect the gold price?
El Gato: I don't know, I've been too busy lately promoting my web site to notice what all these different markets are doing. Right now we're planning to sue President Clinton for not buying enough jewelry for his family.
GMO: Do you think it will go to trial?
El Gato: Actually, we're willing to settle for a Chai bracelet worn by Chelsea at photo ops, and a 24-carat gold collar for Socks.
GMO: Any other developments in the works?
El Gato: Oh, yeah, I was having breakfast with President Bush and President Ford the other day, when who should walk in but Billy Gates. If we could just get him to use one ounce of gold as a promotional offer with each new copy of Windows 98, then just imagine what could happen. Billy seemed to like the idea but he wanted to toss it around with my old pal Warren Buffett first. They invited me
to lunch but I already had a tennis date with Jean Chretien and Peter Munk. Canadian doubles, of course.
GMO: Did either of them reveal anything new?
El Gato: Oh, sure, lots of stuff. We're lobbying the Parliament up there to tie the Canadian dollar to the price of a can of Labatt's. It's not exactly the gold standard, but you have to start somewhere. In fact, I would appreciate it if you would give me like twenty bucks toward the cause, I could really use it.
GMO: Sorry, I left my wallet at home, but I'm glad to hear you have something brewing. Any final thoughts?
El Gato: Yeah, it saves a lot of wasted effort looking at charts and fundamentals and all that stuff if you stay bullish on everything all the time like I do.
GMO: Thank you very much for your time.
----
<;-)
Gandalf the White
BTW, that post was WITH Kaplan's permission !
<;-)
Goldfly
ECB Gold
The ECB balance sheet from 3/19/99 shows that they are holding 99 billion Euros in Gold. If one knew how many ounces the Central Banks were holding...... Come on, somebody with the numbers on the CB hoard do the math!

Also it shows that there are 327 billion Euros in circulation. Hey, 30% backing.... cool.

But Aristotle, unless they are really looking to shake things up, I don't expect any change here, do you?

GF
Aristotle
Hey Gandalf
It looks like Kaplan served up a roast sliced so thin it is nearly transparent. Now if I could only somehow figure out what his position is on the underlying grounds for GATA...

;-)
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Y2K May put shine on Gold
This extract is from a European Evening Paper:




Bonds in for a jolt if Y2K worry
puts a shine back on gold

by RICHARD MORRISSEY

Everyone agrees: gold is in a bear market. If central
banks aren't busy lending the once-precious commodity
to hedge funds and other short-sellers, they are
looking instead at ways of offloading their holdings.

Politicians have also been talking gold down, with
Pres-ident Clinton joining Britain and France in
calling for IMF gold sales to help reduce the debts of
poorer nations.

Three years ago, gold was brushing $420 an ounce.
Following these latest calls for IMF sell-offs, it has
fallen to $283, close to the 19-year low of $275 set in
August last year when deflation fears were at their
peak.

Behind the plunging prices lies the general theme of
demonetisation of gold, where it is no longer seen as a
significant store of value. This has combined with
massive central bank sales, hedge-fund shorting and the
backdrop of a weak environment for commodities
generally over the past two years.

At this point, gold has been written off as not telling
us anything about inflation, and bond markets are
treating the commodity as pretty much an irrelevance.

Such an overwhelming consensus of opinion can be
correct but is prone to shocks that can trigger sharp
unexpected price movements. The recent swift upward
movement in the oil price, which has put on 20% over the
past three weeks on the latest effort by Opec to control
production and the hugely surprising turnaround in the
Japanese yen last autumn are testimony to the degree to
which the consensus can be wrongfooted.

The same could surely happen to gold, especially since
the infamous hedge funds have been aggressively
borrowing gold from central banks and then shorting the
market in a "one-way bet" - just as the yen had
appeared to be.

What could turn gold around? The bulls' case for gold,
at least in the short term, lies with Y2K - that
worries over a possible banking system collapse, or
worse, over the millennium, could enhance the
attraction of gold as a store of value. Retail demand
for gold has already risen by about 30% because of Y2K.

If this stockpiling continues to gather pace, it just
could unsettle bond investors who, although relaxed
right now about commodities generally, are aware that
several members of the Federal Reserve's Policy
Committee refer to gold as a lead indicator of
inflationary pressures. A combination of a stronger oil
price and a turnaround from very de-pressed levels in
gold could look more than just a coincidence.

Bond investors - especially those involved in the US
Treasury market - have already been fretting about
stronger growth than originally ex-pected so far this
year.
Firmer commodities could tip the current state of
equilibrium around a 5.5% long bond yield in favour of a
move higher. The stock market's biggest fear - a rate
interest rise by the Federal Reserve - could also come
into the fray as a meaningful worry.

� Associated Newspapers Ltd., 29 March 1999

http://www.standard.co.uk
Aristotle
Goldfly. No, no expected changes...
just simple math. They will adjust the valuation buy taking the March 31 price applied to the Gold reserves--which won't have changed in weight.

With the euro/dollar exchange rate as it is, we might see the ECB Gold reserve INCREASE in euro value even in the event that it might possibly decrease in dollar value. We'll have to see what the next two days bring. Unfortunately, there isn't enough precision in your figures to do the math for the Dec 31 price. (or at least, I should say I haven't run the numbers for significant figures)
beesting
Anglogold getting $401.24 per ounce for Gold in the ground!!
WHAT IS THE REAL PRICE OF GOLD???

Press release from Anglogold March 29,1999:

In the latter part of 1998,hedge cover(GOLD IN THE GROUND) for Anglogold's South African operations was rebuilt to a total of 255 tons spread over 10 years at an average price of R80,369rand per kilogram. In 1999,Anglogold intends to maintain this level of hedgeing,and actively manage forward sales contracts. Full report at:
http://www.barney.co.za/reuters/mar99/anglogold29.htm

All you math whizzes out there,please check my math.

$1.00 U.S.dollar=6.23 South African Rand.

1 Kilogram=1000 grams.

31.103 grams per ounce-World coins book page 24.

1000 grams divided by 31.103 = 32.151239 ounces of Gold in a kilogram.

R80,369 divided by 32.151239 ounces=2499.717 Rand per ounce.

2499.717Rand per ounce divided by 6.23 Rand per Dollar(todays price)=$401.23868 or $401.24 Dollars per ounce.

This is an average price received for contracted Gold reserves in the ground.If todays price is roughly $280.00 per ounce for mined and refined Gold whoever is buying at $401.24 Dollars per ounce is lose-ing $121.24 Dollars per ounce. Am I missing something??? Why would anyone pay $401.24 Dollars per ounce for unmined Gold when they can buy it today at $280.00 Dollars per ounce??? Possible answer:They're paying for it today in paper thats going to depreciate significantly in value in relation to Gold in the future. Get your future wealth in Gold today at bargain basement prices.............beesting
TownCrier
News you can use
QUOTE: "To be sure, things haven't looked this good since 1928"--Mar 29, CBS Marketwatch

Four reasons to get out now.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990320/news/current/zapman.htx?source=blq/yhoo
-----------
HEADLINE: Fed to keep rates steady amid healthy U.S. economy--March 29 (Reuters)

Steady as she goes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990329/wc.html
-----------
HEADLINE: Emerging debt up, market cheers Russia/IMF news--March 29 (Reuters)

West throws Russia a bone.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990329/vk.html
-----------
HEADLINE: Bonds slip as stocks sizzle--Mar 29, CBS MarketWatch

No "flight to quality" to help floundering bonds, new home sales fall, potpourri of news.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990329/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo
----------
QUOTE: It's that credit thing that gets them in trouble. "It's not a healthy fuel we've got fueling this healthy economy,"--Mar 26, CBS MarketWatch

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990326/news/current/personal.htx?source=blq/yhoo
----------
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
New York-March 29-FWN--
July platinum fell to a low of $362 late in the session
and settled with a loss for the day of $12.40 to $362.50.
June palladium fell $5.25 to $362.75.
There did not appear to be any fresh fundamental news
driving either market, reported William O'Neill, director of
futures research with Merrill Lynch.
Meanwhile, June gold gained 60 cents to $282.30.
Gold was not able to get much of a bounce from Friday's
heavy sell off, with growing concern in the market about
potential for selling by European central banks,
particularly amid worries of possible International Monetary
Fund (IMF) sales and with the Swiss planning a referendum on
gold sales, related O'Neill. News reports today suggested
that a number of euro-zone central bankers may seek to sell
gold prior to potential sales from the IMF and Switzerland,
before prices fall any further.
"That put a lid on any rally attempts today," said
O'Neill. He added that both the gold and silver markets seem
to have "sell-the-rally" mentalities.
"The one thing that has helped gold over the first
quarter has been the lack of central bank selling," said
O'Neill. "But if we're going to see a renewed pattern (of
sales), it would be a clear negative."
He added that other factors hurting gold lately have
been renewed strength in the U.S. dollar and continued
strength in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
having traded above 10,000 again today.
Support for June gold was put at $280, while resistance
was listed at $286.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
More news to peruse
Knight Ridder Newspapers--"The federal government, concerned that consumers are afraid banks will collapse or have computer problems on the first day of the year 2000, is planning a media blitz to put people's fears to rest."

Over half of U.S. population believes banking system will fail.
http://www.bergen.com/biz/y2kbanks19990329.htm
------------
HEADLINE: Russia Won't Cooperate on Y2K Bug--March 29, (AP)

Fallout from Kosovo
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/19990326/wl/y2k_kosovo_russia_1.html
------------
HEADLINE: Getting the mail through Y2K--March 27, 1999 (CNN)

Postal Service making no guarantees
http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9903/27/y2k.postoffice/
-----------
TownCrier
Important site...in case you missed it the first time offered a month ago
THE TRUTH ABOUT RESERVE LEVELS

Covers much of what has been discussed at USAGOLD
http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990308.htm

Peter Asher
Sadus and All
Sadus: Thank you for the reply on the JFK Silver, It's a much more believable reason for the assassination than the various theories that are widely discussed.

After reading the Heston speech, I had thought of suggesting a 'draft' Moses for president, campaign; (he'd be better than the last actor we had), but right away thought of JFK and his brother. We'd just be setting him up. Maybe not every one agrees with the magnitude of what he said, but to me, he shoveled 20 years of pseudo-philosophical horse manure out of barn of public opinion, and wasn't even sweating when he was finished!

I got the speech thanks to Turbohawg turning me onto the Drudge report, and Robin simultaneously received it from a cousin in Salt Lake. Between the two of them and their forwarding, and the subsequent forwarding some of those people have reported back to us, and the logical assumption that vast numbers of others have likewise broadcast it across their lists of correspondents, I believe this particular message has spread faster and further than the Mellisa Virus.

I know it won't affect the gold conspiracy or the money supply directly, but if we're ever going to have a better world, it won't come from the decisions made by "A" students in brainwashing #101.

YGM
@ Farfel
With all due respect to Dr. Gary Matthews for his support
of GATA, and his close association w/ Bill Murphy, I must
state that "I" fully support your Gata egroups comments as
to the shareholder revolt by owners of Barrick, Anglogold
and other Gold Hedging stocks. I don't think we need
chain ourselves to the furniture like the greenpeacers but
Goldbugs "DO NEED" publicity to combat all the negativity
and blatent bad press coupled with the many, many
misconceptions that abound in the Gold arena. Personally
my E-Mails have been working overtime for 3 months to
some recognizable avail & success. Regards:YGM
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
Jun gold settled up 60c at $282.3 per ounce on "unenthusiastic
(dealer) short covering," according to a trader. "Someone is not letting it go
up." He said he had expected gold to rally today, "but instead it is very
oversold...Gold will rally on short covering, but I'm not sure when that'll
happen."
Gold remained unfazed by news that Canada Prime Minister Jean Chretien had
urged the International Monetary Fund to sell some of its gold to help poor
nations and reports that Finance Ministry official Giorgio Dhima said that
Switzerland wanted to cap potential gold sales by the IMF at 5 million ounces.
Ronald Cambre, chairman, CEO and president of Newmont Mining Corp. told
Bridge News today that if the International Monetary Fund wants to help
undeveloped countries, it should give them gold to help them stabilize their
currencies. He said that he had been in talks with the US Congress, the Gold
Institute and the World Gold Council about this proposal (Story .19015).
Some players said the market is already accustomed to the threat of IMF
sales and is unaffected by the news.
"Gold is running out of steam," one trader said. "It is the most
disappointing asset of the decade, and it's not doing anything to shed that
title."

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
SteveH
April gold now...
$282.00 again.

How much fiscal energy does it take to close the DOW above 10,000? Who would spend that kind of money and what is the motivation?
Gold Wheels
Help GATA help you!
To all GATA members, volunteers and gold buffs:
Can you help us?
We all know how important it is to get the word out about the GATA cause, to increase awareness and to raise funds for our legal representation. As individuals, each of us is scattered throughout the four corners of the earth. We are men and women, of various beliefs, race and cultural backgrounds. Yet we have a common purpose in that we desire GATA to succeed.
At this precise moment in time, each one of us is aware of at least one company that needs to hear about GATA. It may be a Gold Mine, a precious metals stock fund, a commodities dealer, conservative newsletter, coin or bullion dealer, precious metals WEB site, anything that relates to the metals market or has a strong public voice about fairness under the law. Surely, each of us knows at least one firm that needs to hear the GATA message. Oh, and let's not forget our state representatives in the senate and congress(USA).
Please, take a moment out of your busy schedules and write us who these folks are. We need a Company name, type of business, name of president or chief financial officer, e-mail and regular mailing address, phone number if you have it handy. Email this info back to GATA as soon as possible, so that letters and emails can be prepared and sent. Regarding the state senators and representatives. We can write them however, nothing counts more than these people hearing from their own people in their own jurisdiction. Would you be willing to write them yourself (with or without our help)? Let us know that too.
On behalf of all the members of GATA, THANK YOU! We shall succeed!
(Gold Anti-Trust Action committee at www.gata.org)
SteveH
Watch what you say...

Medical Resorts sues chat site and posters

Medical Resorts International Inc MDRE
Shares issued 30,928,592 Mar 29 close $0.09
Mon 29 Mar 99 Street Wire
STOCKHOUSE AND ANONYMOUS POSTERS FACE $6-MILLION SUIT
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
Feeling that Medical Resorts International was the target of ongoing false
and malicious statements posted to an Internet discussion site operated by
StockHouse Media Corporation, president Robert Talbot requested that
StockHouse provide the names and addresses of the offending posters. "They
told us to get a court order," Mr. Talbot said. That is precisely what
Medical Resorts did, launching a $6-million suit against StockHouse and two
anonymous posters in the process.
The statement of claim filed by Robert Talbot and Medical Resorts
International in the Court of Queen's Bench of Alberta in Edmonton names
StockHouse Media Corporation, StockHouse.com, John Doe 1 also known as
Peter41, and John Doe 2 also known as Waitnsee, as defendants. The suit
claims various damages including damages for defamation, negligent
misrepresentation, and exemplary damages. Among other things, Medical
Resorts alleges that "the Defendants Peter41 and Waitnsee have wrongfully
made the false and malicious statements against the Plaintiffs, which were
published by the Defendants Stockhouse Media and Stockhouse.com, with the
intention of causing shareholders to sell their shares in the Plaintiff
Medical Resorts and to purchase shares in companies that the Defendants are
promoting or in which they have a direct interest." StockHouse has not
filed a statement of defence.
In a subsequent hearing before Madam Justice D. Sulyma on March 9, Medical
Resorts obtained a court order requiring Stockhouse Media Corporation to
"produce and surrender to the Plaintiffs all information in their
possession pertaining to the identification of the Defendants, JOHN DOE 1
also known as PETER41 and JOHN DOE 2 also known as WAITNSEE including
however not limited to proper names, addresses, telephone numbers, other
aliases, internet e-mail addresses, application and credit information." It
was also ordered that StockHouse cease publishing and remove all posts on
the Medical Resorts bulletin board authored by Peter41 and Waitnsee or any
other of their aliases. StockHouse has not complied with the order.
On March 19, a notice of motion was filed that an application would be made
on Friday, March 26 for an order citing StockHouse in civil contempt for
failing to obey the March 9 order to disclose the information regarding the
anonymous posters and to remove their posts. StockHouse did not make an
appearance at the hearing on Friday.
Mr. Talbot says that he is prepared to take this "all the way" and that the
case will likely result in the institution of some standards regarding
Internet posting. "A lot of these people are real brave when they're hiding
behind anonymity," he says. He notes that the court order compels
StockHouse to divulge all of the aliases of the named posters. He is
convinced that the same individuals using different aliases are responsible
for other negative posts regarding the company. According to Mr. Talbot,
StockHouse is "thumbing its nose" at Alberta judges by not obeying the
order. He states that Medical Resorts has "asked for certain remedies" the
nature of which he would not disclose, adding, "If we get them, StockHouse
are not going to be very happy campers."
A call to StockHouse's president Jeff Berwick last Friday was returned by
the company's vice-president Mark Crowder who would not comment on specific
matters related to the legal action. He did remark that the sensitive issue
of anonymity will probably surface more often as the Internet is
increasingly used by people looking for investment information. According
to Mr. Crowder, StockHouse had just received the notification regarding the
order to disclose the identity of the posters and it had been passed on to
the company's lawyer, Brian Kaminski. Mr. Crowder said that Mr. Kaminski
was quite surprised that Medical Resorts had obtained the court order. A
call to Mr. Kaminski of the law firm Bell Spagnuolo on Friday afternoon was
not returned.
Anonymity is fiercely defended by posters using Internet stock discussion
sites, and attempts or threats to uncover the identities of posters are
often met with a deluge of protest from other discussion site participants.
The anonymity of posters is also of some concern to many of the companies
who host discussion forums. Sites such as StockHouse, which derive a large
part of their revenue from advertising, face stiff competition to attract
'hits' or visitors to the site. The more hits, the better able the company
is to sell advertising and the more exposure for its fee-based offerings,
such as the pay-per-view newsletters carried by StockHouse. According to a
Feb. 8 article in The Australian published during Mr. Berwick's promotional
tour in Australia, StockHouse is the top financial site in Canada, boasting
about 100 million hits per month. Whatever the number of hits, many are
made by posters and 'lurkers' who follow some of the more controversial
threads where anonymous posters spin out yarns, often with little regard
for fact.
Becoming embroiled in a multi-million dollar lawsuit might be of more
concern to StockHouse, especially at this time, than protecting the
identity of what several of its users, particularly participants in the
active Medical Resorts thread, consider to be a couple of nuisance posters.
Again according to The Australian, StockHouse is planning multiple exchange
listings, including Nasdaq and the Australian Stock Exchange, within the
next six to 12 months and such a suit could have unwanted ramifications for
that quest. Moreover, a San Francisco investment firm is purportedly
conducting a $6-million placement in advance of the Nasdaq listing and a
legal action might turn potential investors away. StockHouse apparently
turned its attention to Nasdaq after having its listing application
declined by the Alberta Stock Exchange in September 1998, largely over
concerns about the company's stock discussion forum. Mr. Berwick has
acknowledged that the message boards were once under scrutiny by U.S. and
Canadian securities regulators who feared that they allowed the possibility
for the release of insider information or fraudulent information.
While protecting anonymity, increasing 'hits', and the quest for an
exchange listing may be StockHouse's primary objectives, the number of
publicly traded companies taking action against anonymous posters and the
sites that host discussion forums is growing. In July 1998, troubled Philip
Services reacted to a spate of negative and, in some instances, threatening
Internet discussion site posts by obtaining a court order obliging a number
of ISPs to reveal the identities of several anonymous posters. In September
1998, ASE-listed Hampton Court Resources took the unusual step of
responding to Internet hype by issuing a press release cautioning investors
about false rumours circulating on chat sites. Many of those rumours were
initiated by an anonymous StockHouse poster. In October 1998, Medinah
Energy, a small U.S. mining company launched a suit naming the Internet
pseudonyms of posters the company contended were making false and
defamatory statements on message boards. In December 1998, Nasdaq listed
American Eco Corporation, was awarded punitive damages of $500,000 (U.S.)
and direct damages of $75,000 in a lawsuit against a poster hiding behind
an alias while posting falsehoods about the company. In the same suit, the
former chief financial officer of the company, David Norris, was awarded a
total of $7.75-million in punitive and direct damages.
Whether in Canada or the United States, litigation can be expensive.
Medical Resorts is a small medical services and health tourism company
deriving most of its revenue from its resort on the Caribbean island of
Anguilla which caters to dialysis patients. For the six months ended
December 31, 1998 the company reported a net income of $180,684 from
operating revenue of $492,950. Nonetheless, Mr. Talbot is adamant that he
is committed to pursuing the matter. He was encouraged by the fact that
Medical Resorts was awarded costs in its court appearance on Friday. Mr.
Talbot said he did not know what amount had been awarded but the company's
lawyer had just returned to the court to have the judgment registered. The
company's solicitor is Robert Burgener, a director of Medical Resorts.
(c) Copyright 1999 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.canada-stockwatch.com
Aristotle
Hey, SteveH, help me pop the corks on these Champagne bottles!
DOW 10,000. Yippeee! Thirty stocks and a fancy equation that does much more than add the end of day share prices of those industrial stocks.

What kind of funds does it take to keep the Dow where it is? Theoretically, not much. Regardless of intraday prices and volumes, all you need is one share--the last one of the day--to be traded at the appropriate value, replayed for each of the Dow Industrials.

But realistically, what can we attribute this to? Index funds. For the past few years, holders of IRA's, 401k's, etc have seen the Index mutual funds consistently outperform the rest of the field. Naturally, the people say "Me, too!" and shift their allocations to the index funds. With ever more of the investment money being forced fed into the 30 stocks that are factored into the Index (regardless of their individual business performance), it really has nowhere to go but up. Until it comes down. (Similar deal for the S&P 500)
TownCrier
Y2K and electricity
Will Y2K Turn the Lights Off?--March 29, Westergaard

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9913.htm
Aristotle
Reality check
Anyone that serious feels they are missing out on an opportunity of a lifetime with a Dow investment should consider doing two things. First, go ahead and invest some money in an Index fund...no one is stopping you. Try it. See how well you sleep at night, knowing the uncertainties of Y2K, war, and OPEC, will be there when you wake up. Maybe you'll decide once and for all that it is not good timing for you and your wealth right now.

Second, before you invest anything, take a look at the Dow chart appearing in the Gilded Opinion essay "The Equity Culture Revisited". It will likely be the only reality check you need to keep you grounded and economically responsible. ---Aristotle
SteveH
Aristotle
It would seem that until 2008 when Baby Boomers retire from babydom that things will look up then for S&P and DOW 30. What could possibly alter that trend and stick? Every other stock index in half? Or gold at 500? Or or or (funny how or is gold in French).

Champaigne is a tad bitter.

SteveH
Armstrong and GATA
from GATA:

Dear fellow-members of GATA,


Last week the Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chretian, added his voice
to the chorus, "The I.M.F. should sell some of its gold to help the poor
countries." He did so probably well knowing that if the money-rich are
really so concerned about the money-poor countries, they would be seen
to be for holding gold, not for giving it away at today's price. As
Prime Minister of a gold-producing country, Jean Chretian must know that
what is needed is a rise in the price of gold, which will bring with it
a general rise in commodity prices, and so generate economic relief not
just for miners everywhere, but for the money-poor world as a whole.

So why has he joined the chorus against gold? Well, there was an
interesting question at the Gold-Eagle discussion group yesterday
(28 March from 16.00): "What is Goldman Sach's Role in $Canadian/$Aussie
Carry Trades?" Yes, this IS a very interesting question. Along with the
money Goldman Sachs and others may have made from knocking down the
Canadian and Australian dollars � as has already been made from knocking
down the South African Rand, Russian Rouble and Brazilian Real . . .
anyway, along with the dollars Goldman Sachs and other investment houses
may have made for themselves and their clients from playing down the
gold-producing countries' currencies, there is the whiff (or a stink
perhaps) of economic blackmail here.

While twiting along with the chorus of big league politicos, "The I.M.F.
must sell some of its gold to help the poor!" was Jean Chretian perhaps
also muttering under breath, "And now lay off the Canadian dollar
please, boys."

And let us ask while we are about it, what has been the real reason
behind Canada and Australia off-loading some of their gold reserves? The
CB gold sales and all the hype around these sales has been so obviously
against the interests of the Australian and Canadian gold mining
industries, the pressure to sell must have come from elsewhere.

With Canada and Australia together now supplying the world market with
almost as much gold as South Africa, one is entitled to ask: What is the
difference between a whiff and a stink here? Answer: Hard evidence that
somebody has been spreading s**t talk through the corridors of political
and central bank power, right round the world, and particularly the gold
producing countries, to the effect that "The Masters of the Universe"
are able and ready to reduce the national currency of any country that
does not play down gold with them to toilet paper worth.

Is there anybody out there with hard evidence to back this suggestion?

- - - - -
Of course, we know that there is another, more obvious factor at work to
make the politicos anxious to please the Wall Street Masters of the
Universe. There is the fact that, by the nature of the gold carry trade
and where that trade is at now, they and their central bank governors
are going to end up with something worse than egg on their faces when
the price of gold rises, as it inevitably will � some day.

The fact is, once one starts selling short on any carry trade, one is
inclined to borrow more and more to ensure that supply stays ahead of
demand. In other words, there is a compulsion to borrow and sell more at
the time of purchase for repayment of earlier borrowings, to ensure that
the purchase (of one's own sales, talking group-wise!) is going to be a)
at a good price, and b) camouflaged. Therefore, it is not just greed
that has led to there now being a very large overall short position. And
the game has now reached the stage where all involved must be fearing an
awesome bear squeeze, which will not just knock the wind out of Wall
Street, but also seriously embarrass central bankers.

Since the central banks have been the lenders for the carry on trade, it
follows that they are going to do whatever the borrowers tell them to do
to keep the gold price from rising � INCLUDING LISTENING TO AND ACTING
ON THE IDEA THAT GOLD HAS HAD ITS DAY AS MONEY.

- - - - -

Having established good cause why the politico bullshit merchants and
central bankers are finding it necessary to play down and write off
gold, lets go on to consider how effectively they appear, at this moment
in time, to be doing so. And how even more effective GATA will need to
be to counter them.

New GATA member, Dennis of Ottawa, shared the feeling of many members I
am sure, when he wrote:

"My wife just exclaimed to me 'gold is down $3.15'. I don't know.
Someone is hammering it. I hope it doesn't go all the way to the $100
basement as some 'gold technicians' are predicting. Sure as God made
little apples, the day we sell bullion is the day it will turn around!"

I responded: "Dennis � take heart. Those people who are predicting that
gold will go all the way down to $100 haven't taken GATA into account.
That goes for Princeton Economics International, too. In answer to my GO
GATA e-mail to them of 23 March, Bruce Pugesek
replied for PEI that their forecast calls for gold to sink to the $200
range by mid-2000 -- after which they anticipate 'a gold bull into 2003
and perhaps 2007 with the price of gold moving to $1000'. Well, I refuse
to be discouraged. GATA will take this as a challenge."

There is no question that PEI has been remarkably accurate with many of
their forecasts. And if they are proved right about their more immediate
forecast of a Dow Jones crash on April 8 into 9, then we at GATA and
goldbugs generally are going to be so strongly challenged, we are either
going to come through from nowhere as winners, or be knocked right out.
And nobody is going to knock out a team of 200 GO GATA goldbugs � so! We
are going to win by honing in on and exposing why Wall Street, the
Treasury Department, the Fed and most central banks have committed
themselves to writing off gold AGAINST OPEN MARKET TRENDS AND THE PUBLIC
INTEREST.

Let us consider the market facts: There is a growing demand for gold in
India and elsewhere in Asia. There is a 60 percent up of oil off its
lows. There is a massive 1,600 tonne gold supply/demand deficit. . . all
this speaks for a gold price of from $350 to $400. But the computer
models show that Wall Street will not buy into this AND that the central
bankers will go on supporting the big investment houses as they work
against open market trends. In other words, the central bankers are
willing to see gold bought and sold at much lower than realistic market
prices, while pretending to be for a free market.

What GATA has to show is that it is not an open world market that is
determining the price of gold, but a closed market run by a cabal � a
cabal now stuck with a ridiculously high level of gold shorts � a cabal,
therefore, that is compelled to more gold carrying; therefore to putting
more pressure on politicos and central bankers � a cabal, therefore,
that is determined to ensure an ever-greater flow of gold from the
vaults of central banks into private hands, at a closed market price
that is against the interests of the peoples that the banks are supposed
to be serving.

- - - - -
Now the curious thing is, after the first letter from Princeton
Economics International, advising me that the price of gold will bottom
at $200 around the middle of next year, there came a second letter, now
from Martin Armstrong, as if to reinforce the point.

"There is no conspiracy against gold," he wrote. "The conspiracy is
against paper money. The reason why the Euro is only an electronic form
of money for the next 4 years, is because this is an attempt to move to
purely an electronic currency using debt and credit cards. It is hoped
that by eliminating circulating currency is any form, that government
will be able to eliminate the underground economy and collect what they
believe to be there just tax quota.

"Gold has simply been demonitized by the central banks and its
liquidation will continue. They have no plan to ever return to a gold
standard and hence its demonitzation continues through its liquidation.
Gold has ceased to be a monetary base unit of value and it has simply
become an investment.

"Gold declined in value against stocks between 1924 and 1929. It rose in
value between 1929 and 1932, declined again between 1932 and 1934 before
it was officially revalued by FDR. During the Depression, gold was cash.
It acted in the same manner as cash acts today during any liquidity
crisis. The value of money rises whenever the value of tangible assets,
including stocks, decline."

I responded:

Dear Martin Armstrong,

"Thank you very much for your letter. It goes to the heart of the gold
price issue, and I assume that it reflects the Princeton Economics
International attitude to gold.

"I would ask you to consider this: If there is an ideological commitment
to demonitize gold, as you imply, then there is a commitment to see that
it happens, by collusive means if it comes to that, even against the
will of the majority of the people of the world and the market.

"GATA is commited to stopping the rot through the law courts. As we draw
public attention to the issue, we anticipate a groundswell movement
against demonetizing gold.

"Also, have you considered how the movement to demonitize gold in the
West is opening the way for Islam and the East -- India and China
particularly -- to start a counter-movement; and thereby gain economic
and cultural acendancy in the long-term."

- - - - -
Well, I don't expect PEI will make much of that -- yet.
No, not until we have retained Berger and Montague and filed a lawsuit
against the colluders. Then PEI will have a new factor to programme into
the computers: the possibility that central banks will stop conniving at
anti-market gold dealings.

With what results? One cannot say other than that in mid-2000
the gold price will be considerably up and not down from where it is
now.

Your comments on this offering would be appreciated.

GO GATA, Go Gold.

Boudewijn Wegerif (Bodwin)
Moderator GATA E-mail Group
PS:
Bill Murphy has just received this E-mail from GATA member Jerry: "A few
moments ago I had a conversation with Mr. John Devlin. He is with the
Investor Relations at Bema Gold. Mr. Devlin is aware of GATA but to my
surprise stated that Bema has received no correspondence from
Shareholders urging Bema to support GATA. Mr. Devlin personally
recommends that shareholders contact Bema in this regard. Come on Bema
shareholders get those e-mails off. As a matter of fact, even if you are
not a shareholder, drop them a line anyway. Let Bema know what you think
about the obvious manipulation of Gold.
HopeingII
Bema Gold
Come on Boys and Girls.

Lets send Bema a note urging them to support
GATA. We should be e-mailing all Gold miners
whether we are shareholders or not. GATA
can use all the help they can get.
HopeingII
Bema Gold
Bema can be e-mailed at ir@bemagold.com
Penny Nichols
Federal Reserve
After reading various recent posts regarding our Federal Reserve, Kennedy, etc., it is finally beginning to sink into my brain, the stupid arrangement that, we the people, have let happen.
Do other countries such as Germany and Great Britain have a counterpart to the Fed or do they issue money directly (without bonds) such as Lincoln and JFK attempted to do?
Penny
SteveH
June gold now...
$281.80



from kitco:


Date: Mon Mar 29 1999 22:58
rhody (LEASE RATES FOR MON.MAR. 29 FROM MITSUI COMEX.) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GOLD ( CHANGE )
1 MONTH .94% ( -.15 )
3 MONTH 1.00% ( -.10 )
6 MONTH 1.16% ( - )
1 YEAR 1.60% ( -.03 )

A significant weakening in short term leases indicates avoidance
of the gold market by the gold carry boys for today.

SILVER
1 MONTH 2.19% ( -.75 )
3 MONTH 3.25% ( - )
6 MONTH 3.81% ( -.25 )
1 YEAR 4.50% ( -.03 )

There was pronounced weakening of one month lease rates indicating
withdrawl of short term borrowing, and hence slackening of silver
carry activity. The overall pattern is one of slackening demand
and increased liquidity. Although rates are still firm, there
is no sign of a silver bull here. Neither is there a lot of interest
in borrowing short term silver. This implies that either specs
think silver will rise ( it makes little sense to borrow silver at
low prices that may have to be replaced at higher prices ) or that
bond prices ( 1 month T bills are bought with the proceeds of the
borrowed silver sale ) are falling, or will fall.
I have given up waiting for lease rates to rise to the point
where the carry trades becomes uneconomic. I think this market
perversion will be killed by collapsing bonds, not rising lease
rates. I suspect the lease rates can be manipulatd to artificial
values to encourage borrowing. I think we should pay very
close attention to Gollum's comments on the bond market.
The other condition that ends the lease game is no stockspiles
available to lease. In the case of gold, this could take 14 yrs
of leasing plus sales. In the case of silver we have 27 months
of stockpiles remaining. I estimate each of the 333 million oz
of silver remaining is sold an average of 50 times each year
in the paper trade. This is creating the illusion that there
is 50 times as much silver as there actually is. This illusion
ends when the last CB reaches for the last ounce and the 51st
guy takes delivery. There you have it. Leasing and the
derivatives market have created the illusion of abundant silver
even at prices at 600 year lows. Buy silver and take delivery.
Each delivered ounce has the weight of 50.
Aristotle
Penny's question
"Do other countries such as Germany and Great Britain have a counterpart to the Fed?"

Yes. National Central Banks and money creation are all slight variations of a common theme. That makes it all the more unsettling to watch one currency after another lose its purchasing power, wiping out the cash savings of the citizens. Precious little stands between any given national currency and this same destiny. That is where an enduring currency (or asset, if you prefer) like Gold saves the day, and saves your savings. ---Aristotle.
TownCrier
Assorted financial news
FOMC--What is the Fed looking at?--March 30 (Reuters)

What's on everyone's mind
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/nz.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Germans Get New Finance Minister--(AP)

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990330/germany_fi_1.html
-------------
HEADLINE: Dow Falls From 10,000; Down 102.12--(AP)

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990330/wall_stree_3.html
-----------
HEADLINE: Goldman Sachs: Canada economy vulnerable--March 30 /CNW/

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/pd.html
----------
TownCrier
Interesting site to expand your gold-money perspective
The Islamic Dinar

http://users.netmatters.co.uk//murabitun/The_Islamic_Dinar.html
YGM
DOES GATA STAND ON FIRM GROUND???
If some of you ever wonder if Gata has it right concerning
Gold Manipulation you need to read my 10:56 post @
Gold/Eagle Forum. If you haven't previously read this info
it will boggle your mind!!! YGM.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: The Industry Fights Back!
MARKET UPDATE (3/30/99): Gold penetrated $280 today in a southerly trek
accompanied by little in the way of fresh news. The market seems to be still reeling from the
political barrage aimed at it by Western politicians including Bill Clinton and Canada's
Chrestian when they called for IMF gold sales. Another factor that will affect the market all
week is the slowdown in key gold trading markets because of the upcoming Christian,
Jewish and Moslem religious holidays. I find it most interesting that after all these years at
this lonely outpost fighting the good fight in behalf of gold, that finally reinforcements are
beginning to show in the form of some industry heavy-weights determined to put the lustre
back on gold's public image. They are a sight for sore eyes. For too long, the anti-gold
crowd in Washington, New York and London has had its way with gold and the
unremitting, unanswered attacks on the yellow metal. Though the constant barrage in the
press has not done the damage hoped by gold's opponents, it has done some "collateral"
damage among those who do not take the time to study the concept of "money" and why
gold hold's such a special place in that pantheon. Now the industry has decided to fight
back, and by God, it's about time.

In a Reuters report published yesterday Gordon Wylie of South African gold producing
giant, AngloGold, said, " Up until now we've sat and waited to see what happens with the
gold price. We'd like to be involved in determining what the gold price will be." AngloGold
, the world' largest producer, will kick in $21 million per year to stimulate worldwide gold
demand.

Also, as published by Bridge News: "In her first public appearance since she took her
position as director and CEO of the World Gold Council 6 days ago, Haruko Fukuda called
upon the need for a re-examination of the relationship between paper money and gold.
Speaking here at the Gold and Silver Institutes annual conference she said that the WGC
would work on this issue over the coming years, and promised 'to promote this debate in
earnest.'"

And where have you heard this before: "The International Monetary Fund wants to help
undeveloped countries, it should give them gold to help them stabilize their currencies,
Ronald Cambre, chairman, CEO and president of Newmont Mining Corp., told Bridge
News today. He said that he had been in talks with the US Congress, the Gold Institute and
the World Gold Council about this proposal." You heard it here at the time the all the
rumblings started about IMF gold sales. If the IMF were solely interested in helping the third
world countries they would do as Mr. Cambre suggests. The fact that they don't displays an
ulterior motive. In my estimation that motive has to do with the public relations value of
these announcements and fear mongering in an attempt to keep the public from "running to
gold."
What the anti-gold crowd does not understand is no-one on the pro-gold side of the fence is
calling for a mass exodus out of paper assets into gold. We simply advocate prudent
diversification as a hedge against economic disaster -- a centuries old practice.

One more comment on another subject and then it's on to other projects scheduled for today.

The Los Angeles Times ran a story about the on-going Russian/IMF loan negotiations that
raises some troubling questions about what exactly it is that the IMF is trying to accomplish
there. Russian is asking for an additional $8 billion in loans. The IMF offering $4.8 billion.
But it isn't the wrangling that is troublesome but the whole aura surrounding these
negotiations. The $4.8 billion represents "the amount Russia needs to make payments on it
debts this year to the IMF and prevent a default..." Once again we encounter this Alice and
Wonderland circular logic that is so aggravating to those who see the taxpayer ultimately
paying the price for these bailouts. Here we have the IMF loaning money to Russia so that
Russia can pay back the IMF for a previous loan. This is no different than paying off one
credit card with another. What are the prospects of ever getting off this spinning roulette
wheel? Michel Camdessus purports to be a banker. What honest, forthright banker would
make a loan like this when you know you have little chance of being paid back? The loan
you are making will not go into the economy to improve prospects of payment. It simply
goes back to the IMF or to the international lenders who made the bad loans in the first
place.

Adrian van Eck made the following comment in his most recent Money Forecast Letter. It
sums things up: "The IMF...has destroyed half the national economies in the world with its
incredibly inept combination of bad advice and too-generous bailouts for speculators caught
in firestorms of their own making. What the hedge funds have not accomplished with
aggressive short selling and 100-to-one leverage, the IMF has managed to complete for them
with policies that include cutbacks at 50% per year and higher, and - as a cherry-on-top-the
Sundae - sharp boosts in taxes on a populace already in the dirt."

He recommends gold as a maelstrom gathers on the financial horizon:

"Some central banks already have bare floors in their gold vaults and can do no more than
shoot their mouths off and try to talk private Gold buyers out of protecting themselves with
the still scarce yellow metal. Gold is moving into stronger hands...as private citizens who do
not trust their own governments and Central banks assume correctly that the last 4000 years
proves Gold is better to hold than currency, whether it be paper or electronic money...."

"One of these days -- as happened in the 1970's -- the World will rebel against tons of U.S.
Dollars being created and dumped in their laps. They will switch to the new Euro of the
Japanese yen...As this happens the Dollar itself will unwind all the disastrous devaluations
we have caused elsewhere, putting the Dollar back in a more reasonable relationship with
money from South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, and
yes, even Ecuador..the latest casualty of a combined assault by American hedge funds and
the IMF."

All of which ties neatly into the first half of this report.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. If you have any questions about today's report you
can post them either at the FORUM where I am sure you will generate response from some
of our posters, or e-mail me and I will do my best to respond in future Daily Reports.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
USAGOLD
YGM...GATA, et al
With all due respect, if you wish to post something for USAGOLD readers, please post it here. Under our rules, advertising and promotions however veiled are cause for code deletion. Thank you for your co-operation. I pay for advertising at The Gold Forum site because I believe it is unfair to disguise advertising as posting. I am sure you understand where I'm coming from YGM. Perhaps your post was innocent? If so I apologize in advance.
ss of nep
Re: Msg Id # 3991
Also see

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q1/1999_03/990324.123437.silverbar.htm

and

http://www.murabitun.org/
turbohawg
interesting chart ...
... from the Privateer: Dow/Treasury debt comparison

http://www.the-privateer.com/usdebt/dow-debt.html
Aragorn III
A nice chart, turbohawg.
Due to the workings of the fiat system, the Treasury debt has nowhere to go but up. We should see they cannot borrow money to settle this debt without the borrowed money taking its place in debt. As was explained in today's market report--trying to pay one credit card with another. But here it would be more like trying to pay one credit card with itself!

All of this inflated money supply is not really *in* the stock market, but rather, it is hovering in limbo, circling like vultures over the next potential meal among the dying herd.

When the markets lose their appeal, this money will not circle for long in these narrowly defined quarters of Wall Street. It will go shopping elsewhere, turning to real things. "Money" that would want to remain as money would find gold sooner than later.
TownCrier
World Gold Council speaks
HEADLINE: WGC says pensions are untapped market for gold--March 30 (Reuters)

"This is one way of guaranteeing you won't lose it."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.html
YGM
USA GOLD-- Very Sorry
Yes this was not intentional. I do this periodically when I
have a long post as I cannot master the art of cutting
and pasting. I'm just a computor illiterate Gold miner
driven by anger and frustration of late. Next time I'll do
the right thing and post entire comments at USA and
Kitco. Thanks for your great site and the ability to speak
out. Regards Ken Reser-- YGM.
USAGOLD
YGM...
It's OK. Thanks for your forthrightness. My apologies if I came off too harsh. We are in concert. Onward, my fellow knight.
beesting
More on Taxpayer supported IMF loans to Russia!
IMF worried about Russian Central Bank Offshore funds-Rubin.

Washington,March 30-The new framework deal between Russia and the IMF will reflect IMF concerns about reports that the Russian Central Banks Funds had been managed by an offshore company,U.S.Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Tuesday.Full report at:
http://biz.yahoo .com/rf/990330/uw.html

Lets eximine the implications of this news release:
An offshore company,which enjoys the same immunity from any and all Government scrutiny'similar to Hedge Fund Giant LTCM may have control of Russia's purse-strings. Russia opposes NATO intervention in the Balken conflict and(according to news releases)is supporting the Serbian military.Could some of the money lent by the IMF be used for military means?
This would mean taxpayer money from Americans is being used to support American involvement,and at the same time American taxpayer money may be being used by oppose-ing forces in the conflict!! This is the same IMF that wants so much to destabilize the worlds economy by the selling and denounce-ing of real money--GOLD!! Also,if we're going to speculate,maybe this is tied to the report a few weeks ago about Russia's involvement in the London Gold Market.More food for thought............beesting
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Lower; Technical Weakness in Silver

New York-March 30-FWN--Silver futures settled lower
here today on technical weakness, sources said. Platinum
continued its recent decline brought about by funds getting
out of the market, and palladium followed.
Gold's dip was linked to technical considerations in
light trade.
Silver was hurt by a technical failure on Monday,
explained Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer with LFG
Bullion Services.
The metal also may have been hurt some by a recent rise
in in COMEX warehouse stocks on fears that they may keep
building, even though they remain historically low. Data
released after Monday's close showed a build of 600,306 troy
ounces to 80,214,820 troy ounces.
"This is still a very low amount, but the fact is they
have risen from the 71 million or 72 million area to the 80
million-ounce area," Kaplan said. "But if you look at this
historically, five years ago, there were 300 million to 400
million ounces in depositories."
June gold slid $1 to $281.30, with Kaplan
characterizing today's activity as largely technical in thin
trading conditions.
"We're in a position now where you have Islamic,
Christian and Jewish holidays coming, along with a long
weekend and the end of the quarter," he said. "The markets
are incredibly thin, and it's very important to note that.
Any flow of orders will move the markets more than it should."
As for technical levels, Kaplan said, "If the $278 area
in cash--which is $280 in the June--does not hold, we will
certainly go to $275 in the cash. If that does not hold,
you're probably looking at the low $260s."
He put resistance for the June futures at $283.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
Second one is very good.
HEADLINE: Bonds jump; Fed stands pat--March 30, CBS MarketWatch

Fed funds rate kept at 4 3/4 percent
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990330/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo
---------
HEADLINE: Kosovo crisis seen bolstering case for steady Fed--March 30 (Reuters)

READ THIS! Full of good thoughts. "War, in addition to being hell, is inflationary."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/34.html
--------
backlash
Russian IMF Loans
beesting (post #4001)

Sorry, but your "Food for thought" post really got my attention and I think I am going to have cranial indigestion. If indeed we are paying for both sides of this blasted conflict, it is no wonder we are "damned if we do and damned if we don't". Good observation! Any ideas on what to do about it?

BTW, this just triggered a recall question from several days back. Why is it that the IMF has to 'loan' Russia the money in order for Russia to repay a previous IMF 'loan'? Years ago when it was necessary for my company to get funds from the bank, a loan (the real kind) was made to the company and the proper paper work and promissory notes completed. [Everything looks good so far, right?] Okay, at the end of 90 days (the usual length of notes) do you think that the bank then 'loaned' me more money to do whatever I wanted to do with it and pay interest on the first note if I wished to? NOT ON YOUR LIFE ! ! They wanted me to pay ALL of the interest accrued to date PLUS a reduction on the principle and THEN they would let the balance of the note ride for another 90 days. (And there were a few 'ifs' attached to that scene, too.)

What is wrong with the IMF doing the same thing? I can find absolutely no basis for giving anyone that owes money more without a whale of a good reason. Where is the good reason here?

Okay, okay. - - I give! What possessed me to think that good fiscal policy could possibly be applied to such a grand undertaking? To the stocks for a fortnight for being so naive! beesting, methinks you are right.

Best Wishes, bl
Gold Wheels
USAGOLD Manager
I understand we are not to tout other sites but surely you are ok with the GATA site arn't you?
They are the only folks out there trying to halt the gold suppression through an anti-trust law suit. They are non-profit, have no commercial agenda, simply want to stop the price from dropping into the cellar.
canamami
Japanese Year End
A poster on SI put forward this theory. The equity crash to start the gold bull will start after tonight. Tonight, the Japanese financial year end occurs. After tonight, the Japanese CB has no reason to keep the yen low. The chain reaction then starts, and will quickly accelerate. Bonds will be the first safe haven, followed by the gold bull. I don't necessarily accept this thesis, but it was novel enough to share.
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
By Tina Petersen and Darcy Keith, Bridge News
Jun gold followed silver's weaker tone today, settling down $1 at $281.3 per
ounce on fund selling. "The longs are getting very cautious," said a trader.
Added another: "Gold looks weaker. For the near term, it remains vulnerable to short selling."
He said some see gold's next technical objective as being $272-275, but he expects gold to be rangebound
in the near-term at $275-295. "Over the short term, I don't expect prices to
jump out of that range."
A few players said they expect a volatile week ahead of the Easter holiday.
One trader said he does not expect many to remain long over the holiday. "Easter
has bought unpleasant surprises for the longs in the past."
However, another said he expected heavy short covering ahead of the weekend.
"There's a lot of selling around. Gold is extremely oversold right now."

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Quixote
YGM
it is disturbing to find that 95% of federal reserve derivatives are held by only eight banks, and the small amount of capital actually involved, but does J.P. Morgan actually hold a controlling interest?
USAGOLD
Gold Wheels...
We have a policy here of no advertising or promotion. I do not bend on the rules for one simple reason: If I bend here, and lower the bar, then the next guy comes along and says "Hey, you lowered it for him; Lower it for me too." Pretty soon, the FORUM becomes little more than a message board for every cause on the internet -- and you know and I know that internet causes are legion. It would lead to chaos. Whether or not it's a "for profit" or "non-profit" organization is a side issue.

We have a very good FORUM here -- a table round where all gather in good spirit and harmony knowing that not one is taking advantage over another. Many who post here have businesses of their own or web sites of their own. The same rules apply to them. Let's keep it that way. This FORUM is here for the discussion of important ideas relative to gold not promotion of any type. We attract some of the top posters on the internet and for good reason. They perceive this as a serious site for serious gold investors. That doesn't mean we can't have fun and that every single post has to be on subject. Most of us know the dividing line between good taste and pushing the envelope. I think most of the posters here want to keep things the way they are.

GATA is an issue here not a cause. If it is to be discussed, it should be discussed in the context of larger issues, or the issues it embraces. If I start getting the impression that this is becoming a GATA site, or anything close, I will start deleting codes. Be forewarned.

It's a matter of use over abuse; good taste over crass commercialism -- no matter the cause. I ask all to use good judgment and adhere to this in the spirit of the rules promulgated long before GATA came along.

Thank you.
Michael Kosares
PH in LA
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Leasing and short sales

An interesting discussion has been taking place today (for a change) over at that other forum and I thought would be interesting to many here. I hope I don't contravene any strictures against promoting other sites by presenting this material in the following format. Please be assured that I have no such intention. It seems like the kind of discussion that would be more likely found here. And it would certainly be especially interesting to hear further comments from FOA and Another on the subject. I remember that they were very informative about the mechanics of gold leasing when the subject came up here several months ago. From his comments, it would appear that of the following conversants, it would probably have especially behooved RJ to have taken notice of that discussion. Anyway, here are the comments: (The URLs can be pasted one by one into the "open location" window of your browser.)

RJ: 3/28/99
http://members.home.net/rjgold/archive/032899h.htm

Ted Butler: 10:25
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q1/1999_03/990330.102545.ted_butle.htm

RJ: Today
http://members.home.net/rjgold/archive/033099.htm

Dabchick: 15:47
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q1/1999_03/990330.154720.dabchicke.htm

Ted Butler: 17:10
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q1/1999_03/990330.171045.ted_butle.htm

Rhody: 17:24
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q1/1999_03/990330.172456.rhodyeeee.htm
USAGOLD
Addendum....
I should add to my previous post that I have seen nothing yet in the posting here that would lead me to taking drastic action. So far, everything has been in good taste and to the general advancement of knowledge for all. MK
beesting
To Backlash
Reference your post #4004 concerning IMF loans to Russia,who in turn could be supporting Serbia in the Balken conflict.
The question to me was,"any idea on what to do about it."

I'm just an old Goldbug who has scratched in the ground a little bit, panned a little bit,own a few Gold stocks,own a few Gold coins and Gold bars,and not really qualified to try to change the world.

However,if you want to be an activist these are a few things you might think about doing:Talk to everybody in a nice way about your views,if you're in the U.S. write or talk to your local congress person or U.S. Senator.
E-Mail the IMF on your views.
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
When you get their homepage scroll down to comments,this is their E-Mail.
E-Mail congressman Ron Paul he has publicly stated he is opposed to U.S. involvement in the Balkens.
http://www.house.gov/paul/index.html

Also in your fine post,you described a typical loan for your business.
All business loans that I've ever heard of require some sort of collateral from the borrower to secure the loan,the collateral is usually something higher in value than the loan itself.I think the IMF is issuing unsecured loans with money raised from taxpayers,in case of default the taxpayers are the real losers.
The borrowing nations are supposed to pay back the loans from their taxpayers...Russians refuse to pay taxes from what I've read!
Now,if Russia defaults the IMF lends more money till their broke(IMF) or can seize Russian held assets.I don't know if Russia has any billion dollar assets out of their own country,but this seizure act would surely provoke another cold war and maybe worse.
If it was me in charge of IMF I'd let Russia default on their IMF loans and put a LIEN on their mining industry's future production,with an emphasis on Gold production,and natural resource future production extracting the monies owed from the sale of their products on the international market in an orderly fashion to pay off loans that were previously defaulted loans.
Russian Gold is just as good as anybody else's........beesting
ET
Cops and y2k

Here is an interesting site for an overview of how some police are viewing the y2k problem. It is extensive but worth the read.

http://www.copsrus.com/y2k.ad.lt

ET
jinx44
PH in LA --RJ's 3/30 on Ashanti leasing:
Thank you so much for the URL's. I liked RJ's comments about the forward hedging at Ashanti. I can agree that some hedging can be used for operating cash when the industry is in a slump. The key would be to not hedge more than you can swallow in the future. For example, if next years production is 100% hedged, they are working ALL YEAR LONG on last years cash. What pays for operations, etc. if every ounce goes to the lender?? Also, what if gold's price is $2000 next year - their stock would tank. They would be the only kid on the non-hedging block to get skipped at Christmas. If Ashanti is smart, they would write the contract so they would be paying back in $US instead of oz's.

In general, the article made me feel a little better about the hedging community. I hope there are more companies like Ashanti. The one thing I can't quite get my mind around is who set this up in the first place?? If this is an orchestrated effort by a disciplined group, then they must be goldbugs because the last man standing will be standing on a big pile of gold!
turbohawg
Money Supply Growth
A few weeks ago, the Fiend SuperBear did one of his daily commentaries on the tremendous growth in the money supply since early '95. As noted here before, I find it awfully coincidental just how closely that growth tracks Klinton's troubles. Below is most of a letter I was inspired to write by the Fiend's analysis.

>Klinton lost Congress in Nov '94, and as detailed in Year of the Rat, thought he was done. Dick Morris convinced him that a massive ad campaign, which would require massive spending of money they didn't have, begun immediately and right up through the '96 election would keep him in office. It was during this time that he took large amounts of illegal campaign cash from the Riady family, the same family that earlier had funneled money to Webb Hubbell to buy his silence, and as Klinton's payback to the Riady's, led to the placement of John Huang in the Commerce dept at the highest level he could without having to get Senate confirmation ... and the secrets subsequently went to flowing.

I believe that the surge in the money supply starting in early '95 was deliberate in order to pacify voters in what was really an economy that was slowing leading up to the '96 presidential election. Klinton managed to win the election, but then his mounting scandals became a threat to his power, which meant continued pump priming would be necessary for him to keep the mass of voters apathetic and the impeachment sharks at bay.

The Fed is supposed to be independent of political influence. But given that Fed easing often coincides with presidential election years, we already know that isn't true.

As a result of this collusion and Klinton's maniacal desire for power, we now have a monetary bubble of unprecedented extremes. This bubble, combined with the sale of sensitive US secrets and diversionary bombings around the world, places this country in a very precarious and dangerous situation, and it's all about keeping Klinton's ass in control.<

turbohawg
a couple of excerpts ...
... from Don Hays' market commentary at http://www.wheatfirst.com/mktcom/dailyupdate.htm

>And then there is the big problem, China. We have been the lone voice in the wilderness for much of the last year, expecting China to be forced to devalue their currency. But now reality is starting to set in there as well. Beijing gave their first hint of things to come last week, when
they formed a special team to study the impact of a possible devaluation of their currency. The reports are that their exports have plunged 10-25% in the last year, as the devaluation of other competing currencies in Asia Pacific has damaged their competitiveness. In conjunction with the recent pullback of financiers, as a result of the Gitac bankruptcy proceedings, we believe the artificial economic growth that has been reported in China is about to crumble, for all the world to see. That will cause a devaluation of their currency that will quickly spread to the rest of the world, especially Germany.<

>Money supply has sharply declined in the last few weeks from its historic binge of prior months. Since we believe that this excessive money supply is the fuel that has driven this big-cap bull market, this withdrawal of funds is a very big negative for the next few months. The 13-week annualized growth of M2 has dropped from a growth near 13% in November of last year to only 4.83% now, and apparently headed much
lower. In the last 4 weeks it is in a negative growth mode. For the important MZM aggregate of money supply, the 13-week growth has dropped from its 20%+ growth rate of November 1998, to 8.6% in the latest release. It appears that the Fed is ready to test this bull-market patient that it put on the money-supply breathing machine last fall. Will it be able to sustain its life once the plug is pulled? The next month's stock action should answer this question.<
sadus
so many things to say! YGM, GATA, Aristotle, Encryption, Digital Cash
First of all, YGM, welcome to this forum! YGM is a generous contributer to the Gold-Eagle forum, and we are fortunate to have him here to share his wisdom with us. YGM, I spent nearly a decade in Fairbanks, Alaska, and shall I say, it was quite a "character building" experience! You must be currently enjoying the relief of Break-up? Temperatures in the 50's above?

Let me say for the record that YGM is not involved with GATA, other than as an optimistic supporter... as should be us all.

To Aristotle:
Sorry I did not respond to your post sooner, things came up. Hopefully without appearing to be a shill for e-gold, let me address your points. Let me re-iterate that I am nothing other than a happy customer.

>But convenience can't lightly be dismissed, and it isn't "selling out" to
>personally use FRN's as appropriate. Say for example your closest buddies
>all go to the local watering hole to discuss Gold and what not over a few pints.
>How do you pay the tab and tip the waitress if you don't have the
>denomination of money they require?

I pay all my bills by instructing e-gold to mail a check to the payee. The dollar amount is deducted from my Gold, based on the current market price. ===>For spending money around town, I pay with a credit card. I then pay off the card each month with an e-gold "check." Thus, the credit card behaves like a debit card: as if the money were coming directly out of my Gold. If I really needed fiat cash, I could get it off of the card from an ATM. But so far I have not had such a need.

>I know you are a proponent of e-gold (tm), and I've come to my own conclusion
>that D. Jackson and company have their heads bolted on right. They could easily
>be one of us. I would trust them more than I would trust any so-called "respectable
>banker" out there.

Yes, they are truly Goldhearts. Like us, they see Gold as "money" and not as a "commodity". And they provide the mechanism to make this convenient. Also, notice the "Examiner" page on their website which provides more transparency than any bank.

>But I would not have ALL of my eggs in that basket. What if Y2K
>makes that money as inaccessible as any other? Granted, with e-gold there will not be
>a problem with a run on the bank...all money on deposit is actually there to cover 100%
>withdrawal requests. But if the power grid or telecommunications go off-line....Phfffffffffftt!
>You wealth is safe, yet inaccessible.

It is true that e-gold is not a "be-all, end-all." Rather, they are merely a gold-based competitor to the banking system. In the event of a (y2k related?) collapse of society, you would still want to make sure you withdrew your wealth first, whether it was stored in e-gold or in a conventional fiat-bank. But as you have pointed out, at least, unlike a bank, they would be capable of supporting a 100% withdrawal!

Just think of it as an alternative to your bank, nothing more. I do not store all of my money (gold) in e-gold. Rather, I merely use it as a place to deposit paychecks and pay bills. In lieu of a bank.

>I do see the e-gold (tm) system as the future of banking, but unless I couldn't possibly
>arrange safe storage closer to home, I wouldn't have ALL my Gold wealth in the e-gold
>system. I'd have just enough there to meet my transactional needs--similar to the situation
>today were people don't have all of their cash in a checking account, but rather, just enough.
>For the same reasons that we each choose Gold as whatever percentage of our wealth, we
>would also want to have some of that Gold in a form that we could READILY lay our hands >on--wouldn't you agree?

Correct: "a bird in the hand beats two in the bush." I think we can all agree that nothing is superior to Gold in the hand! I only find e-gold useful as a substitute for the bank. A place to deposit my paycheck and a place from which to pay my bills.

The mere act of holding gold in the palm of your hand can be, psychologically, a life-altering experience. For those who don't know what I mean, order some from USAGOLD and experience the joy! It is truly a God-designed form of solid wealth.

"The Gold is mine, and the Silver is mine, saith the Lord."

>[...] Some people tend to misidentify where the various faults lie. Electronic
>money, for example, isn't a bad thing necessarily. In fact, as sadus has found, it is
>electronics that allow him to use his Gold very easily for daily transactional needs. When
>transactions take place between e-gold(tm) users, the electronic payment is nothing more
>than a transfer of title over the specified amount of Gold. Similarly, modern electronic
>banking conveniently transfers control of dollars from one account to another (notice I did
>not say ownership or title?). It should be agreed by everyone that modern electronics have
>paved the way for a return to using Gold as common money. The true fault lies with the
>"commodity" being swapped during transfers, not the transfer process itself.

You have struck upon a vein of brilliance when you say, "The true fault lies with the 'commodity' being swapped...not the [electronic] transfer process itself." EXACTLY!!!!

ENCRYPTION

Let me elaborate on that point. First I must give some background on the field of encryption (I am in the software industry, which is why I have recently relocated to some rural farm land.) Everyone knows that encryption allows you to make data unreadable to others. What you may not know is that the current, freely-available encryption makes your data unreadable even to national governments. (Download your free copy of pgp 6.0.2 from www.pgpi.com !!)

In the old days, you would encrypt a piece of data using a 'key'. The recipient of this data would then need the same key in order to decrypt the data and read the message. The problem is, how do you safely send the key to the recipient without it being intercepted? Normally this is accomplished by the "man with a suitcase handcuffed to his wrist," something which doesn't make convenient the desired, everyday use of encryption.

The solution is "public key encryption." The idea is that there are now two keys. Any message encrypted with either key can then be decrypted *only* with the corresponding key. (It is mathematically impossible to determine one key from the other.) You simply keep one key private, and make the other key public. Any message encrypted with your public key is now readable only with your private key (and vice versa.) Now I can encrypt a message to your public key, and you are the only person in the world who can read it, using your private key.

(DIGITAL SIGNATURES==>)Conversely, if you encrypt something with your private key, only your public key can decrypt it. Thus, using your public key, I can verify mathematically that you are actually the person who signed a specific message. I also have verification that the message has not been tampered with since you signed it.

The above concepts describe the capabilities and benefits of encryption technology, both the privacy aspects and the (digital signature) authentication/verification aspects. PLEASE, if it is not totally clear to the reader, go back and read the previous two paragraphs again! The concepts are incredibly simple, and it is amazing the number of people who do not understand what encryption is capable of. To be clear:

1) I can write a message, intended for a specific recipient, and ONLY that recipient can read the message. Even national governments cannot read it, no matter how much money they spend trying.

2) The recipient can verify, mathematically, that I am actually the sender of the message. He can also verify that the message has not been tampered with since I signed it.

(MY POINT==>)The implications of this readily available technology are enormous! Using encryption and digital signatures, a system of DIGITAL CASH can be devised, which provides a DIGITAL TRANSPORT MECHANISM that is both UNTRACEABLE and ANONYMOUS. Fellow Knights, *this* is why the government is desperate to outlaw this arcane branch of mathematics!!! Not only does it hide communications from them, but it provides mathematically secure methods of exchanging wealth! The transport mechanism can be used to trade Gold!

The joke goes (apologize for crudeness), "why does a dog lick his balls?" ==> "Because he can." Similarly, many of the government's actions towards Gold and money have been "because they can," and there wasn't much we could do about it. Now, this table is turned! There is nothing THEY can do to stop ME from trading Gold worldwide, in an anonymous and untraceable manner!!

Of course, e-gold(tm) does not currently provide digital cash, but any 3rd party with an e-gold account could set up such a system and provide for the collapse of the government! There is an excellent "strong crypto" article on this very topic at forbes.com for those who are interested in searching that site for more information.

Sorry to run so long with this post...it might even require several reads. But once the implications of this technology become clear, you can see why it is so important and so powerful. And you can see why it is your patriotic duty to use encryption in your day-to-day life. Not because each individual transmission requires the protection, but because we must make this technology a mundane part of normal life in order to assert our rights and power. Only then will the true benefits of encryption become visible to all. After all, someone very powerful is currently trying to ban it, for a reason!

It is my intention, as a programmer, to devise such a system for the anonymous, untraceable exchange of real Gold. An extra layer upon the benefits already provided by e-gold. Use encryption! Download PGP and generate yourself a key pair!
Peter Asher
Beesting, Backlash
I thought a reprint of this post would be germane to your discussion today.

Peter Asher (11/1/98; 12:42:49MDT - Msg ID:875)
Happy Halloween
Just in time to celebrate the current holiday! The trick of default and devaluation was deflected
by the treat of 95 billion dollars in IMF loans. So, Nations A, B, and C turn money over to
Nations E, F, and G to pay creditors. The funds keep changing hands, circulating the global
scene as ledger entries, earning interest as they go.

I remember, as a teenager, one friend saying to another to whom he owed money, "I'd rather owe
it to you than do you out of it."

As long as you call a loan "a loan", it's not in default. All debt gets "squared off" by (a) the earnings of increased production facilitated by the new capital, (2)confiscation of tax payers' money or (3) default. Therefore if, for example, the contributing nation spends less on, say, welfare, in order to hand over funds to the receiving nation, who then increases production capability, things could get better. But, if potential productive capital is depleted in order to lend it to other nations for various squanderers' activities, then things get worse. Sooner or later, original debt and the growing interest balance due will overwhelm the system.>>>>>

In a high- finance fiction novel I read recently, a character referred to "building up enough debt so that your creditors can't afford to bankrupt you." When you get to having a major western power as a debtor, default is simply not an option. Imagine gigantic Russia, virtually starving to death, paying for its last food shipment by selling its last nuke to 'you know who', just as a piece of it all. How they all got here is beyond logic. It can only be explained by forces we can barely conceive of, helping themselves to the wealth.,

So, now the first lenders hand off the debt to the IMF. After they're on the ropes, "They" will come up with something even worse, and more ludicrous, to pass on that debt baton.

All we can do as individuals, is make sure we have a chair to sit in when the music stops. One guess as to what it should be made out of!
ET
Ed Yourdon's latest y2k essay

Here is the link to Yourdon's latest essay concerning the government's reco for a three day problem. Yourdon has been writing about y2k for years.

http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kdangerous.html

ET
SteveH
June gold now...
$281.10 (oh...hum [large yawn].

I read the leasing posts listed by URL earlier. I read the GATA stuff too. Good information all.

I just find it damned frustrating to see all the BS in the markets. Makes you wonder whose in charge, eh?

YGM
@sadus
Thanks for your welcome but I've posted many times here over the past 2 mo. I guess you may have missed them.
As for my not being involved with Gata you're very wrong
sir! I was one of the first bunch of pledgers (3 0z AU) and
have been involved from the outset. As a matter of fact it
was suggested by Gata chair Bill Murphy that I might
consider a position w/ a number of other members to sit on
an advisory board. This I declined as I am gone thru-out
the summer & consequently out of touch. So how does one
become more involved w/ Gata than this. I mean no
offence to you but you stated "for the record" and I and
the Gata executives know different.---YGM
sadus
YGM
>As for my not being involved with Gata you're very
>wrong sir! I was one of the first bunch of pledgers
>(3 0z AU) and have been involved from the outset.

My apologies, what I meant was that you are not actually a representative of GATA itself, here to advertise your own organization, but rather that you are a fellow Goldheart who happens to have donated to the cause (as I assume we all have? Right guys?) I apologize if I was wrong about that. But my point was that we are all Goldbugs, we all root for GATA, and most of us have problem sent them a gram or two...you included.

As for how I could have missed your posts here for the past 2 months, I must be a real idiot! I have certainly taken note of them on gold-eagle. Great contributions!
-S
sadus
correction
finger-tied tonight...

>problem sent them a gram or two

should be: probably sent them a gram or two
YGM
@sadus
Thanks and sorry my own self. I think the moon or the price
of PMs gives many of us Goldbugs a little of the ladies PMS
I know I'm just a little too touchy of late. Apr. 1 will tell
some new tales maybe??? Best Regards YGM
** and yes it's getting close to +50 here in Yukon.
Peter Asher
North of 49
We haven't heard from you in several days, hope everything is OK. A special thanks for your warm birthday comments last Thursday. (Was that your last post or did I miss one)
Aristotle
sadus
Never before have two people used so words to convey the sentiment, "We are in agreement." I can't imagine the volumes that would follow if we were fundamentally in opposition. Seriously though, nice post. While I thought I was as gold-hearted as it gets, YOU sir, are over the top! Wish the world had more like you.

You mentioned being a software developer, and that you "naturally" had some rural land. Is it your professional opinion that Y2K will be more than a bump in the road? And to put yourself really out on a limb, what would be your estimated time of recovery...how soon with the infrastructure shake off the bugs? Don't worry, I won't track you down and "slap you silly" if time proves you wrong by a day or so. I know...an impossible question. ---Aristotle
SteveH
This is better...
June gold now...$281.90.

Life is good (ok better).
TownCrier
Everyone wants to print the reserve currency these days
Japan's aid to Asia seen making yen more global--March 31 (Reuters)

Japan's efforts to bolster the yen's status as a global currency
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990331/dp.html
SteveH
June gold now...
$281.40.

Dininformation?

Date: Wed Mar 31 1999 07:16
General (Larry Edelson of Safe Money pushes for $200 and lower gold again.....) ID#365216:
Copyright � 1999 General/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Clinton and Chirac endorse IMF gold sales

Get ready for $200 gold - or lower!

When we first turned bearish on gold and silver, we got a barrage of mail from unhappy
people in the industry.

Gold dealers said we were hurting their business. One newsletter editor ( who also
sells coins on the side ) said we "upset his subscribers." Their basic attitude: "How
dare you, a long-time silver and gold bug, turn bearish on the precious metals when it's
OBVIOUS to EVERYONE that they're going up."

Our answer was simple: Deflation. Plus gold sales by the IMF.

Now, it's happening. We have deflation. It's confirmed. There's no turning it around.
Plus, we have more confirmation of IMF gold sales.

Both President Clinton and French President Jacques Chirac are now advocating that
the International Monetary Fund sell its gold reserves. Even if the IMF sells only 10%
of its reserves, that huge new supply alone could drive gold down to $200 an ounce.

Already, gold has begun to fall, down more than $15 in two short days. Now, it's
dangerously close to breaking the important $275 support level.

The Real Reasons Behind Gold Sales

The IMF is going to be selling gold allegedly to help poor countries overburdened with
escalating debts. But that's just the PR spin.

The real reason is that the worldwide deflation we've been telling you about is wrecking
the economies - whether rich or poor - which the IMF is currently supporting all over
the world.

The IMF loans are huge ... and getting a heck of a lot bigger as the deflation in
commodities and basic resources destroys the earning power of these once-strong
economies. It's a bottomless pit that no amount of gold sales can fill. Yet now that the
IMF has started down this primrose path, there's no turning back, no limit in sight to
the volume of gold sales ahead.

Bottom line: As long as deflation continues, our gold target remains intact - $180 -
$200 per ounce.

How can you profit from the decline?

Answer: Sell short Barrick Gold ( ABX - NYSE ) . ( See Mr. Speculator for details. )

Meanwhile �

Many subscribers still cling to silver.
I think that's a mistake.

Warren Buffett now agrees with us. His just- released financial statements indicate
he's dumped most of his 130-million-ounce silver stash.

The silver market, which has already been sinking for weeks, plummeted when this
news hit. It's crashed through the psychologically important $5 area and is now
headed toward the $4.50 - $4.75 range.

If that breaks - as I suspect it will - silver will fulfill my forecast for a tumble below $4.

There's just too much silver floating around the world. Demand is dropping like a stone.
And now even the world's supposedly staunchest silver defenders could be exiting the
market entirely.

If you haven't followed my advice and liquidated your mining shares, don't wait any
longer. Get out now. Tell your broker to sell any silver shares you own at current
market prices.
Aristotle
Ya know what, Steve? I believe that guy...
because he wears a bow tie.

Sheeeeeeesh. ---Aristotle
The Stranger
I Beg His Pardon
I read Buffet's annual report. He revealed NOTHING about his silver holdings.
The Stranger
Boy, Steve, You've Got Me Going Now
Worldwide deflation? I'd like to see some numbers. Which countries have recently experienced deflation, either in money supply or in general pricing? Japan is the only one I can think of, and they just announced they are going to monetize some of their debt. Edelson, if you are out there, please give us just one example.
USAGOLD
Today's Report: Interesting Statements from Terry Smeeton
MARKET UPDATE (3/31/99): Gold tracked sideways in the early going this morning
responding to a weaker dollar and lack of activity in world gold markets associated with the
upcoming religious holidays. Terry Smeeton, former head of Bank of England's foreign
exchange desk and now a director of Standard Bank, says that "fears of central bank sales
could be overdone." According to the Reuters report this morning which featured Mr.
Smeeton, "80% of official gold reserves were in developed countries, most of them
controlled by European Central Bank, the United States, the IMF and Switzerland. "While
this in itself doesn't necessarily reduce the possibility of sales for those areas, " said
Smeeton, "it does mean that the threat of unexpected and disruptive sales is reduced." It was
also reported in that same article that the Swiss National Bank had outstanding gold loans in
1998 of 187 tons, up from 99 tons a year earlier.

Bridge News reporting on the same speech in Phoenix by Terry Smeeton reports the
following:

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) should oversee the central bank gold lending
market, said Terry Smeeton, non- executive director of Standard Bank London Ltd.
Smeeton was head of the foreign exchange division, Bank of England, until his
retirement in April1998. "I would propose that this role should fall to the BIS and it
would be an appropriate issue for the new Financial Stability Forum proposed at last
months G7 meeting," he said, speaking at the Gold and Silver Institute annual meeting
here.

Getting back to the potential IMF gold sale situation, it is interesting to note that if the IMF
were to sell the full ten million ounces of gold proposed by Clinton & Co. it would net the
IMF roughly $3 billion. If the IMF were to sell all of its gold, it would net about $30 billion.
The Brazilian bailout of late last year was $42 billion alone and Brazil is expected to repay
$100 billion in international loans this year. When you take into account the virtual black
hole of third world debt, a problem the international community has wrestled with
increasingly over the past five years, these gold sales will not have their intended effect
assuming the purpose is what the politicians have publicly announced. Clearly, all the sword
brandishing with respect to these proposed sales has an ulterior purpose not made public by
G-7 politicians.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. If you have any questions about today's report you
can post them either at the FORUM where I am sure you will generate response from some
of our posters, or e-mail me and I will do my best to respond in future Daily Reports.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie.

Or Click on Order Forum below to receive a Free information packet which contains the
newsletter.
NORTH OF 49
Last minute details
You are so very welcome Sir Peter. I try to stumble through life, at the very least, by stating only that which I mean.
I guess you are right, it has been since Thursday ( you have to remember that's Friday here) since I posted last. I am down to one more week on this 23K sq. meter man-made steel island, and as always, the workload seems to accelerate just as I am trying to decellerate! Been cranking up some really wierd hours, leaving the ole brain a little fuzzy for the level of intellectual input deserving of this Forum and its' members. Even at my age, I am getting pretty excited about getting on that "ole smoker headed east"!
Some of my colleagues seem to have traversed in and out of local customs and immigration without incident, so I am hoping for the same treatment.
Well, it's been a 18 hour shift, so will bid all goodnight and trust that you will all give gold a boost today (if there was ever a time to exercise those psychokinetic talents--today's the day)

No49
Aristotle
Venting
SteveH, I must admit that your morning "news" post has left me feeling riled, but have no fear, I never shoot the messenger.

I simply don't see how a lifeform that was capable of a daVinci, a Mozart, or a Newton, is also capable of such as we see demonstrated here. Where's acumen in a statement such as this: "Even if the IMF sells only 10% of its reserves, that huge new supply alone could drive gold down to $200 an ounce"? 10% of the IMF's gold represents but 1% of the istitutionally held gold on Earth. And the price would fall by one-third if this reached the market?? Take a look at Wall St. How often do you see companies offer new stock issues that exceed 1% of shares outstanding? Does the price plummet by one-third? Or better yet, look at the active stocks...what percentage of their total shares do we see traded in the daily volume basis? Certainly much more than one percent! In some instances I've seen daily volume exceed the total number of shares outstanding...and the price finished much HIGHER at the end of the day. Give me a break. Any further discussion of an ominous Gold "overhang" is complete bunk. If you want a perspective on a real "overhang", look at M2, and look at the Treasury debt. Truly awesome.

OK, deflation. So what. I happen to be in the camp that sees a global deflation afoot (though certainly not WITHIN this country's borders), but there are many good people that see otherwise. Fine. Let's just play along with deflation for a moment. Any deflation inspired selling that would bring Gold below $200 would have to be the last act of a very desperate man/country. This kind of distress-selling of Gold would have to come from sources that are in dire need of cash to service their loan obligations and that also happen to HAVE GOLD TO SELL. Who's left with significant amounts of Gold that can be pinched by hard times? Anyone with Gold now has it to survive the massive waves of loan defaults and bankruptcies that would surely accompany such as deflation as is suggested. When the banks go bad, the money turns sour, also. Further, in such a deflation, what would happen to a very profit-oriented Wall St.? Wouldn't distress-selling of assets to raise cash first take its toll on the stock market? After all, EVERYBODY has stocks to sell. The Dow would sooner see 2,000 than Gold would see $200. And consider also the Fed's certain effort to reinflate...lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing in such a scenario, and outright spending by the federal government. I'm sorry, but your money is no good here anymore.

No one can say with certainty where the price will turn. Maybe we've already seen it at $275. (Actually, we've already seen it in 1935 at $35.00) One thing is for certain. In this global economic environment, Gold is fundamentally better than a fiat dollar at any price range. I'm doing "currency exchanges" today just as I've done in the past, and I will continue into the future until it becomes unnecessary due to a return to sound monetary systems. Should someone "sell" Gold at more favorable exchange rates in the future due to whatever scenario, I will eagerly accept their generous offerings. I have no problem with cheaper Gold. I do have a problem with "expert analysis" so ill-conceived that even I can punch holes through which you could drive trucks (delivering my cheap Gold, no doubt!) ---Aristotle
Aristotle
Check this out
T-Bonds got suddenly worth less (worthless?) at 10:00 EST, gold got shinier past noon, and oil is pushing $17. A great one page summary of the charts.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htm

Aristotle
"Rubin Says Core of Russia Problem Is Corruption and Bad Financial, Legal Sectors"
Hey, whaddya know...they're just like us!
JA
Deflation
Steve's Deflation post. First off, I figure that anyone who would write an article like Edelsen's, with such distorted generalizations is probably bought and paid for. I truly believe that recent events in terms of encouraging IMF gold sales , suggests the shorts have great influence but they are also getting desperate.

Interesting, my boss gave me a book last week to read titled Deflation. I am only a third of the way into it but this author is talking about deflation in price of items such as computers and commodities. He is not suggesting we will experience a reduction of the money supply.

Others are saying the market is down today because of renewed inflation concerns. See below

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990331/vr.html

What I am learning is that many of the so called analysts could significantly improve their skills by spending some time at this round table.
Peter Asher
Lively morning here.
Ari: great job at "venting" some fresh air into the room. Edelson was sure blowing alot of smoke. He should get a writers' award for that beauty, not a Pulitzer though, His category of writing competes for a prize called the Nebula. (That's Sci-Fi).

'Coincidently', Spot jumped as high as + $2.00 this morning. Maybe this guy's a perfect contrarian foil to bet against.

North of 49: Good to hear your OK. Don't worry about crossing any border, anyone who knows how to get Black Gold out of the ground is as good as, well, gold, to any authority.
TownCrier
News
HEADLINE: Hard for stock performance to continue-Gramlich--March 31 (Reuters)

Short and sweet.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990331/zp.html
------------
HEADLINE: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to boost inflation--March 31 (Reuters)

Our neighbor's house
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990331/2b.html
-----------
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
Gold Firm

New York-March 31-FWN--The precious metals complex
ended the session mixed here today. Gold and platinum
managed gains, while silver and palladium lost ground.
June gold added 60 cents to $281.90 but at one point
traded as high as $282.80.
"Gold looks a little bullish in terms of the short-term
outlook," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst with
Pegasus Econometrics. "We're staging a little bit of an
outside-up reversal day.
"The market is a little oversold. The rise in open
interest confirms that there are a lot of speculative shorts
built up in this market."
Still, said Evans, gold remains in a "long-term
downtrend," with prices not getting much help from any
fundamental factors.
Evans put resistance around previously failed support
near $284 to $285, then $287.70.
"I would say the market probably needs to climb above
$290 to generate much in the way of stronger, more
substantial short covering," he continued. "There are a lot
of shorts here, but they are fairly comfortable, I think, in
terms of their average entry price. It's probably only above
$290 that you'd see them bailing out of their positions or
potentially reversing to the long side."
He put support at today's $280.60 low, then $278.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
beesting
The $280 Gold barrier ----and miscreant information concerning GOLD.
Mr. ANOTHER stated many months ago that $280 U.S. was the bottom price for Gold,in his opinion.So far he's been right on the money.Why this barrier? One of the reasons I come up with is the math.At $280 Gold per ounce X 32,150 troy ounces(1 ton)=$9,002,000 or roughly 9 million per ton,it's much easier to figure price per ton,there are obviously many more reasons for the $280 figure.

Miscreant means-unbelieving- from Websters Dictionary.

The question is why, are the world leaders trying thier best to discredit Gold?
The U.S.public in a one year period bought more Gold than ever before in 1998,-470 tons-or 4 billion 30 million dollars worth.
Now lets tie in the overpriced stockmarket to the price of Gold.If only one very large stockholder or Mutual fund decided to cash out their stock holdings or add stability to thier portfolio with a say 5 billion dollar investment,in physical Gold,there could be an immediate spike up in the price of physical Gold by 25% or more.The Hunt brothers in the 1970's made a killing in silver doing this.The Gold shorts have made their killing already,using this same strategy in the opposite direction.

The reason for the misinformation,world leaders know if one 5 billion dollar investment in Gold happens forcing the price of Gold to spike up others heavily involved in the stock market will follow,causing stocks to plummet in dollars,that in turn will cause a world flight from dollars and a partial collapse of the worlds monetary system as we know it.Current world leaders are deathly afraid of this scenario thats why the miscreant information concerning Gold.
I know this is probably redundant information for all you Knights,but it maybe helpful for squires.

North of 49, I spent a year in Hokkaido way back when, the best King Crab in the world are plentiful in your area,have a safe trip home...........beesting
jls
IMF Gold Sale
It seems to me that the IMF and its' Gold Sale is much like
a man with a muzzleloading flintlock facing two Indians 50
yards away each armed with a spear and a tomahawk. They are
reluctant to charge because they don't know which one he will shoot. He doesn't want to shoot because he knows the
unshot Indian can cover the 50 yards and kill him before
he can reload. So he derives more benefit from the threat
of shooting than by actually shooting.
This isn't a perfect comparison because we have no way
(yet) of getting rid of the IMF. But if the IMF actually
sells the gold they are threatening to sell they will then
have to develop another threat...and creditable threats of
this magnitude don't appear to be readily available.
TownCrier
Learn a little about your dollar
Bridge US FX Review:

Dollar/yen ended lower as traders liquidated long dollar positions in a
thin market and stop losses were triggered with UK and US banks noted as
players.
Traders were said to buy substantial amounts of dollars overnight on market
talk that there would be increased demand for dollars with the start of the new
financial year. Dollar/yen climbed, but failed to reach the key 121.00 level in
Asia. The dollar started its
fall as the demand for dollars did not actually materialize.
"Everybody said that once the Japanese fiscal year was over, there was going
to be demand for dollar/yen after recent yen repatriation, but when there was
not, we went lower," said Ben Strauss, senior trader at Julius Baer.
Doubts over whether Japan's Ministry of Finance would continue to talk down
the yen into the new fiscal year may also have weighed on the dollar.
In a speech today on the global economy, US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
said that the global crisis was still evident, particularly in
Japan. He predicted a continuation of solid growth and low inflation for the US.
However traders had heard this from Rubin before and markets did not react.
The market also shrugged off a second revision of US Q4 GDP which came in
lower, at +6.0% versus an expected +6.1%.
The pair retraced slightly from the low in the afternoon with bids by US
banks in anemic trade ahead of the long weekend. Some Japanese banks were said
to be not actively trading in the US session with the fiscal year-end in Japan.

Euro/dollar ended higher, supported by the dollar's drop against the yen and
mounting speculation of an ECB rate cut at their council meeting on Apr 8.
However traders noted a thin market ahead of the long weekend with the pair
edging lower in afternoon trade as traders squared up long positions.
Talk in the market of French and German bids and stops triggered at $1.0780
and $1.0810, led the pair to the day's high of $1.0821.
"It is dollar weakness more than euro strength," said Kathy Jones,
currency analyst at Prudential Securities.
Providing some assistance to the euro were comments from new Belgium
central bank governor and European Central Bank member Guy Quaden. He was
reported to have not ruled out a rate cut next week. It would depend, he said,
on growth and price trends.
The Swiss National Bank was said to be on the bid for euros around $1.0710.
Some linked this talk to its annual report, which repeated that it had switched
some of its dollars for EU currencies last year, with some traders suggesting
there might be more to do.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
News for the muse
HEADLINE: Experts say inflation, not growth, matters to Fed--March 31 (Reuters)

Read this. Learn what is not known...or understood by the Fed.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990331/41.html
------------
beesting
correction to post#4042
Should read: The U.S.public in a one year period bought more Gold than ever before in a one year period--in 1998.
Hope that makes better sense.Glad there's no fines for literary goof-ups here. I'd be broke...........beesting
SteveH
I had a good laugh...
when I read the reaction to that Edelson post. My reaction to it was incredulous BS. I am glad to see others with the same reaction.

So the XAU was up 3 points or so today. ABX volume very high. Junior stocks beginning to show penny-stock runs again: three I follow tripled, of which one went up 10 times. VSE and VSE mining index up when biggies were down. Gold up (as predicted), but has more to go for my previous TA analysis to hold any water. Still expecting 297-299 in next few weeks. Merrill Lynch, I read, is predicting $305 gold for year 2000. More gold has been delivered this year than last many (purposefully vague). Negative comments on gold at all time high. Threats of IMF golds sales subsided. GATA getting closer to filing suit. DOW down 127 today.

And June gold is now $282.00!
bill5577
Focus on the Doughnut and Not on the Hole

March 31, 1999 - Spot Gold $279.80 up 80 cents - Spot Silver $4.97 down 4 cents

Technicals -

Here we go again. The large speculators continue to pile into the gold market as the Comex open interest rose again today to 187,558 contracts as of last night's close. It has been going up all week. At the same time, Goldman Sachs and crew were very heavy buyers on the spike down in the gold price early this morning and they came in again as heavy buyers around mid day. The big sellers today were notorious funds such as John Henry and Moore Capital.

The scene is more and more reminiscent of that of a month ago when we reported to you that Goldman Sachs was a heavy buyer of gold around the $285 area. At the time, we came out and said, "major gold rally imminent", as we had other information that told us a rally was coming.

The recent action the past few days confirms the Midas commentary of last Friday that it is our opinion that a rally up to the $288 to $290 area is in the works. What we don't know is ( we did not last time either ) is whether the manipulation game is coming to an end and this orchestrated move down was to set up a massive short covering program; or, whether we will see the same slamming of the gold market, once again, after the large specs have covered. A clue might be to watch for the rate of speed that the price of gold goes up when the large specs start to cover in earnest. The last time we went up 6 days in a row, but they were labored moves, small daily price advances. That big spec short covering was met by the "squad" and friends. That became very evident when the subsequent Commitment of Traders Report was released. If we shoot up fast in the weeks to come on $4 and $5 up days, it might indicate a change is in the wind.

On the surface, the silver close today is bearish. But, just as we feel the breakdown of the XAU was a bear trap, we think the same of the silver market. We say so because it feels like the specs are really going after silver from the short side after being long for quite a period of time. After a recent 24,000 contract liquidation and a significant price retreat, the open interest went up 3061 contracts yesterday to 78,563 contracts on an 11 cent down move. Today's follow through down move probably brought in more spec shorts.

Physical demand for silver remains firm around the world and the premiums in India are a high 11.4%. The bullish consensus is only 26. The silver lease rates have come way down, but are still higher than normal. The Comex silver warehouse stocks sit at just under 80 million ounces and do not tell us much at the moment.

Early this week, the base metals in London took a beating. That may have encouraged big specs to try the short side in the silver market. We think it will fail and the price of silver will try again to break $5.80 on the upside.

Fundamentals -

Focus on the doughnut and not on the hole

Charles Peabody, John Meyer ( GATA Treasurer ) and I have been kicking around some big picture themes that we think will have a big impact on the gold market in the weeks and months to come. In essence, we think the demand for gold is about to skyrocket.

The bond, commodity and stock markets are approaching key inflexion points or have been there already. Long time Caf� followers know that Charles Peabody was one of the few Wall Street analysts ( there was only one other ) that late last Fall called for a 6% handle on the bond market this year. This call gets better by the day. He pointed out to me today that the 5.75 yield point stands at a downtrend line that extends all the way back to 1981. At the moment, few investors have seemed to care about the bond yield backup and most are saying yields are headed back down. But even more important than that, Charles says the "White Hand" always seems to appear at the right time, every time, to save the markets. Those that have faded the "White Hand" over the years have not done well. If bond yields break 5.75 on the upside it might signify that "White Hand" is gone for some reason and that is likely to cause a panic of sorts in the stock market as market participants realize all at once that a change is at hand.

The price of oil traded at $17 per barrel today and the CRB Index has rebounded sharply and traded as high as 193.20 today, before profit taking in the grains sent it lower on the day. Since most market participants are focusing on deflation, they do not seem to care much about any commodity price rises.

That takes us to gold. We have noted time and again how economists and analysts point to a dull retreating gold market as a sign that all is well in financial land. "White Hand" has fostered this perception through various means as we all know. WE certainly realize that "White Hand" has made his presence known in the gold market for some time now. It is all part of a manipulation process that is going to come apart at the seems at some point and cause financial AND economic chaos when it all unravels.

We are looking for that chaos some time this spring and another derivative blow up of some kind. As that occurs, some of the manipulators of the gold market are likely to panic and could try and cover their shorts. That might be quite a scene. Word is seeping back to us that the spec gold short position is now considerably LARGER than the 3,000 tonnes we have been touting ( yearly mine supply in 1998 was only 2529 tonnes ). That is so, we hear because the lending of gold to "financial greed mongers" is now out of hand ( that is the feedback we received via a source who spoke with a central banker who is in the know ) Woe to those that have played this greedy gold borrowing game a bit too long. The time bomb is ticking louder and louder again.

The Dow was clobbered today in another failed attempt to stay above 10,000. The technicals in the stock market are horrendous. And yesterday, Priceline.com, a company that has been in existence only 11 months and lost $35 million, had an IPO that was not of this earth. It opened at 16, flew to 85, and settled at 69. The market cap of this company, which places certain airline tickets successfully only 12% of the time, is greater than United, Continental and Northwest Airlines. Mindblowing, and one of the great signs of stock market excess that I have ever seen or ever heard of. Pepsi Bottling, a money maker for eons had an IPO today, and it did not even close at its syndication price.

The point of going into all of this is that we may be at a very important time in history regarding markets. The market that never goes down - the stock market - might tumble sharply and the market that never goes up - gold - might soar! So keep your on the big picture donut and not on that black hole that has been staring us in the face for so long.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares

The XAU broke 60 support on very light volume. It looks to us like a bear trap as it roared back today to close at 59.75, up 3.31. The XAU shares traded much heavier volume today on the up move than on the sell off. Not only that, the XAU has had a tendency to sell off with the general market in the past, but did not do so today. The XAU should be the place to be in the weeks to come. A close above 60 would be very bullish technically.

From the Montreal Gazette, Sat. March 27- "Chretien rocks gold"

"Canadian mining companies and communities will pay for Prime Minister Jean Chretien's proposal to have the IMF sell 10 million ounces of gold to help poor countries, mining industry representatives said�..Underlying the industry's vulnerability, McWatters Mining Inc. said yesterday it was "temporarily suspending underground operations at its Sigma-Lamaque complex in Val d' Or, throwing 300 miners out of work."

GATA has a call into The Mining Association of Canada.

A rare positive gold comment- Dow Jones - Mar.31 - Brussels - with Belgian National Bank Governor, Guy Quaden:

Quaden also shed some light on market speculation that central banks in the euro zone are eager to sell some of their gold reserves, ahead of planned gold sales by the IMF and the Swiss National Bank.

The 11 national central banks in the euro zone have nearly 12,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults, not including the 750 tonnes they have transferred to the ECB.

Gold market participants are concerned that the ECB and the national central banks might dump some of this large cache on the market to raise funds for their revenue-hungry governments.

Quaden said that the ECB has "no intention to sell gold now" and that future ECB-led sales are "not foreseen". He said that the sale of gold by any national central bank must take place in close consultation with the ECB.

Of course there is the usual negative commentary that the mainstream press just loves to print. From Peter Cardillo, Director of Research at Westfalia Investments Inc., a New York advisory firm. He managed to let the press know that he felt the prospect of International Monetary Fund gold sales is increasing. He estimated that IMF could sell between 15 million ounces and 25 million. "That's enough to overhang this market," he said.

Where do they come up with these numbers? We are not even sure they will occur in the first place and the Swiss "want IMF gold sales capped at 5 million ounces". Yet, Peter Cardillo manages to get the mainstream press to print this sort of thing.

Speaking of the Swiss. They stated in the annual report that it had 187 tonnes of gold on loan at the end of 1998. At year's end the average period to maturity of the lending agreements that had been concluded was around 4.5 months. This gold lending produced a yield of 1.9 percent in 1998.

This is the phrase that kills me. It is the same one that every official uses when talking about central bank sales or leases: "Gold lending takes place in a relatively narrow market. In order not to disrupt prices, the National Bank conducts it cautiously and lends only a modest part of its gold holdings." "Its partners are first-class domestic and foreign banks and securities houses".

Three important points here. Of course the gold market cannot be disrupted. There is no market to disrupt. These characters ( many bullion banks are doing the same thing ) lease and lease and lease after selling and selling. Physical demand soaks up the selling, but gradually is overwhelmed and we have $280 gold. There is no market to disrupt because they suffocate every rally and this is a good reason why the volatility in the gold market is so incredibly low.

The second point of importance is the comment about who they lend to as being first class; this is gradually becoming one of the great lies - like the check is in the mail, etc. The Central Bank of Italy invested in what they thought was a first class investment house too, Long Term Capital Management. They were so first class that investing in them put the world's financial system at "systemic risk". Is the Swiss National Bank that much more clever? I think not. John Brimelow just informed me that in 1998, they reduced their dollar exposure in favor of the D Mark and Swiss Franc, which was the wrong the to do and cost them a bundle.

Midas has been riding hard on Goldman Sachs for some time now and I think for good reason. This may be one of the most arrogant outfits in the history of markets. Caf� members may, or may not, feel the same way. Our own Greg Pickup noted the following that appeared in Derivatives Week ( I hear the subscription is some $2,000 ) and is a story written after the 14th International Swaps and Derivatives Association annual general meeting in Vancouver last week:

Early Termination Worries Vexes Members

"The difficulties of early termination of derivatives when a counterparty has filed for bankruptcy-such as Peregrine Investment Holdings-was one of the subjects of an unscheduled session. Participants discussed the difficulties of getting market valuations for outstanding positions when a major player defaults. They also took the opportunity to discuss when the fall-back loss method-self-certifying the value of outstanding contracts--should be implemented.

Dealers expressed concern that calling for prices could reveal the contents of their trading book. Robert Mancini, of Goldman Sachs, outlined solutions such as breaking up the book and including dummy trades as a red herring."

Gimme me a break! Goldman Sachs says: phony the books to prevent fair disclosure in a time of crisis- just when honest appraisals are critical. What they will do for "their book"? It is no surprise to our camp that this type of thinking IS Goldman Sachs. What's a little manipulation of the gold market? So what! Standard Operating Procedure.

On that line, another tidbit crossed our deck today. Right before the gold market broke from the $294 area and right before the very bearish Commitment of Traders Report was released 2 and 1/2 weeks ago, Goldman Sachs told a prominent mining company the gold price was going down. The mining company exec was very surprised because he said the specs were so short. Goldman told the mining company that they had covered completely and liquidity ( gold available to dump on the market ) just happened to be everywhere.

Jody Foster has made a note of this for the files. Speaking of "Silence of the Lambs�.Hannibal Lechter Lives", I just found out yesterday Hannibal Lechter really is back and will continue his adventures in a sequel. The sequel, "Hannibal", will be released June 8 by Delacorte Press and readers will supposedly learn some of the motivation for his cannibalism. Jody Foster, GATA investigator, will know where to find Hannibal this time. Just have to visit the "friendly bullion bankers"!


Bill Murphy ( Midas )

searching
Gold Coin Sales
This is my first time posting to this Forum. I do not have a back ground in Gold so my questions may seem basic to some of you. With the demand for gold coins going through the roof, and the appearence that this is only the start of the demand for coins due to Y2k, why is gold not increasing? Also do you think that this will continue as is or will a time be reached where Gold will have to go up regardless of government or private intervention to control prices?
Jade
What IMF Gold?????
Posted at Kitco 3/27/99 "the IMF has no Gold reserves. All IMF Gold is owned by and pledged by member countries in a double accounting scheme for reserve purposes. This is why congress must approve the sale of IMF Gold" or in other words "the Gold their talking about is our Gold". We sure blew our chance at getting rid of Klinton and his gang of crooks [who are doing a good job of destroying this country]. I sure hope GATA nails Rubin and his cronies over at GS.
onlychild
$200 Gold
Bring it on baby! I'm ready, I'll sell everything I own to cash in on that action. Hey, Big Brother are you listening? We'll take all you can send our way! This will make LBJ's follies look like a Girl Scout cookie sale!
USAGOLD
Over the Hump....It's Wednesday, fellow meisters.......... A Call to Contest. Read On!
We have just completed our biggest month in history at CPM/USAGOLD. Wouldn't know it looking at the price. It is one of the great anomalies of late 20th century history that gold firms around the nation would be showing record volumes and the price of gold simultaneously would have all the appearances of a non-event. Believe me, March was not a non-event.

bill 5577.....Thank you for your continued presence at this FORUM. You add much to our discussion. We should all take note that the price of oil is reflecting that the producers are serious about higher oil prices -- a new fact of life in all markets. The action in XAU is also worth noting -- a sign that big money is moving into gold. Chretien is not sure which country he represents. Canadian's can be as proud of him as American's are of Clinton -- who in my view will go down as the worst president in American history. From this end, it was revealing that Switzerland is even lending gold. I might be behind the curve on this but it was news to me. Perhaps the gnomes are not as smart as we think they are -- or perhaps they have mastered the art of the iron-clad contract. Otherwise, they are likely to end up with a lap full of fiat after giving up hard, glittering gold.

Searching...Welcome to the far end of the investment galaxy -- to this honorable post where the goldmeisters gather at a table round in search of at least a palatable portion of the truth. You ask the ultimate question and I will let my chivalrous friends offer their own brand of guidance. To answer, your final query: Gold can be defeated but it cannot be destroyed. Buy the physical and store it as a protection against economic breakdown. When the failure of fiat becomes apparent, gold will spike. Though we do not when we do know that those who own it and have it near, reap the gain. For the perpetrators of fiat, those who reap the wind; reap the whirlwind.

Jade...Once again I thank you for your important presence at this table. You are right. It is our gold. I have already contacted my Senator, the good Wayne Allard, and he is one of us. Is your Senator a meister as well?

jls...You have drawn a clean and a rock-solid bead on the situation. One by one, these favorite fictions carried by our adversaries turn to dust in their hands. The public no longer believes this nonsense....believe me.

Beesting.....Thank for your consistent and wise presence. I heard recently that Dell -- the computer maker -- made $2.1 billion in sellling computers and $3.1 billion in derivative related speculation in its stock. At least tulips had an essential value -- the beauty of the bloom. In the modern stock market, all you have is the hope and prayer for a big sucker than you were -- not a very comfortable realization no matter where you stand in the pecking order. Scary?

I have added a Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse for the Apil News & Views (Just completed). Any guesses what it is?

In fact let's make it a contest. Let's call a gathering of the knights and ladies -- a contest to determine what this menacing Fifth Horseman could be. For a glittering and comforting talisman -- a one-tenth ounce gold Austrian Philharmonic -- what is this Fifth Horseman and why? At least 30 words. You must not only make the right guess; you must offer a good argument why. You can try as many time as you like. All entries must be marked with the stars ***** so we can identify it as an entry.

This Fifth comes galloping over the hill to join the other Four -- Y2K, the Asian Contagion, the Overvalued Stockmarket and Euro Introduction -- and it is not a pretty sight....So though you draw your sword and your prepare for its onslaught, you must also recognize it for what it is.

We will have three runners-up to make it interesting. They will get the silver U.S. Eagles and they could win without identifying this Horseman but simply making a strong post.

The contest starts now and ends Sunday midnight, April 3.

To make it interesting we will add another one-tenth ounce gold Philharmonic to the knight or lady who guesses, or comes closest to, the closing Comex gold price on the
April contract for next Friday -- April 9. All guesses must be posted by midnight Sunday, April 3. Please mark the price guesses with a row of number signs on either side for easy identification -- ########.

Good luck, my fellow Knights and may the best posts win.
YGM
USA Gold & All You Knights
Another GREAT Day here! I'd love to get involved w/ some
of the discussions, but barely have time to read & run.
Had email from B.M. (gata) & things are going to happen
soon. Apparently we're (Gata & Members) really
stirring things up. (This from CEO of Big Mining Co)
Have to go back to do battle with fools & disinformation
specialists elsewhere. Thanks for letting me drop by to
relax a bit thru the day.--YGM
Go Gata-
Gandalf the White
****The #5 Horseman
Away far in the distance is seen a small figure riding a dark steed. The sounds of the horse's hooves can not be yet heard over the howl of the wind, but it can be seen that the Horseman is headed in the same direction as the other four Horsemen identified by the leader of the Goldmeisters. All wonder whom he is as he comes slowly closer to the present day's afflictions. "Who has a glass ?" yells one old Hobbit, and several younger ones run off to fetch a glass. The youngest returns first with a glass of water, and the old Hobbit, thanking him, pats him on the head and drinks the water. Another returns with a brass expanding tube glass and hands it to the old Hobbit. He expands the glass to its fully opened condition an peers through to find the far off solitary figure. "DRAT" exclaims the old Hobbit, and passes the glass back to young Hobbit. "You with the young eyes look there and discribe the rider, as my eyes are to old to focus at that distance." The young Hobbit takes a long look and says, "Tis a tall rider, all dressed in black." "Black boots, black riding outfit, black cape, (flowing around him as the horse trots along) and a black hat." exclaimed the young Hobbit. "Define his features !", replied the old Hobbit. "OK --- sharp features, and a rough weathered complexion", replied the young Hobbit. "And a mark on his hat !" exclaimed the young Hobbit. "WELL ?" exclaimed the bunch of Hobbits in unison. "It is a big red letter", advised the young Hobbit.
"OK, I can now guess," said the old Hobbit. "We are now going to be in deep duedo", muttered the old Hobbit, as he went to tell Gandalf. "INFLATION is headed our way", he was heard to mutter as he departed.
----
WHY is THE BIG I coming ? -- you ask ! --- simple -- After many years of only flowing out -- the US$ are starting to come home and here at home the Fed is still pumping out the paper notes to cover the inboundries problems of Y2k US banks. The proof is seen in the falling US$ and increase in bond yields. INFLATION is the #5 Horseman.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
#######GC9J settle on Friday Apr 9th
Here is something for you all to shoot at ! 287.50
<;-)
searching
Fifth Horseman
The Fifth Horseman must be the manipulation of the price of Gold By the CB's, IMF and the Governments of the world. One of the biggest falacies of Governments is their belief that they can control the natural market forces by artificial price intervention. They believe they can control the price of products by manipulting the supply, in this case Gold. But as history has shown time and time again this only works for a short time. You can not control the natural market. As we all know when the natural market catches up, after an attempt to control it, the correction can be swift and devastating do to its attempt to make up for lost time.
HopeingII
***** THE FIFTH HORSEMAN IS *****
OIL. Perhaps more correctly it is the recent run-up
in the price of oil. Soon we shall see the resultant
increase in commodity prices. Whether it be grains,
livestock or natural resources, all will be more
expensive in the coming months. This is where
INFLATION is conceived. It is the months of
gestation and ultimately the birth itself that will
spook the markets.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.