USAGOLD Discussion - April 1999

SteveH

(04/01/1999; 19:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4088)

GATA is good. Let it be. imo

Here is an example of a GATA note that I received. You be the judge but I believe it is relevant AND timely.

Dear friends of GATA and Gold,

I am very pleased to bring you the following letter and information from
GATA member Richard Harmon about Congressman Ron Paul, the 14th District
in Texas that Ron Paul represents, and his statement of support for
Congressman Saxton on the I.M.F. gold sales issue. The whole deserves
careful reading.

1. RICHARD HARMON'S CALL ON GATA SUPPORTERS

We must each write our representatives in Washington expressing our
support for Congressman Ron Paul's HR-1147 to withdraw the US from the
IMF & HR1148 to abolish the Federal Reserve.

The economic situation in our land is out of control and the Federal
Reserve system is out of touch with everything held dear to our way of
life! This organization exists not to assure a strong economy and
currency, rather only to perpetuate the banking and finance industries.
Currently around 90 percent of the natural resource recovery industry in
our nation is unprofitable! Our farmers must exist in a state of welfare
support, abject poverty or both! Our steel industry is near dead. Near
every manufacturing and production job in our country has been
subcontracted from a larger company to a smaller one(with lesser
employee benefits) or exported to another country. The only sectors of
this "best economy of history" which are really doing well are the
service and finance / banking.

Dr. Greenspan dearly loves to use the quote "Creative Destruction" when
we (who write his paycheck) "hit a bump in the road" and lose our
careers, homes, farms, and family businesses. It matters not to him when
a well paid mining, production, or manufacturing worker must go to work
in a 7-11 or delivering pizza - from his way of thinking - these are
good things. When we then have our homes repossessed; as long as the
bank can again sell that home at a profit these are great happenings, as
the debt cycle is perpetuated and their cronies in banks continue to get
their paychecks.

When, though, a major bank, brokerage, or large hedge fund speculator
makes a bad bet or can no longer manipulate the markets so as to
maintain their parasitic existence and extortionate compensation, are
these market occurrences as equally constructive? No. Our Federal
Reserve, and our leaders in the White House have determined, in their
greater wisdom, the livelihood of a middle class miner, manufacturing
worker, or oil field worker is lesser value to our society than that of
the bloodsucking banker! The Federal Reserve rushes to their aid citing
"systemic risk".

When one invested in this protected banking industry is about to lose
money, this presents a "systemic risk" and "moral hazzard" can be
overlooked and a bail-out is brokered. When a foreign land imports
steel, cars, or electronics below raw material costs our Congress is
cautioned by these "Masters of the Universe" against "protectionist
policies". When a precious metals mine goes bankrupt these (self
professed) Gods see this as "creative destruction" and the market
manipulations which brought about this "moral hazard" are not only
ignored, but rewarded!

When the Federal Reserve no longer remembers for whom they and the
bankers work it is time we as a people practice their use of words. We
must overlook any "systemic risk". We must rid ourselves of the Federal
Reserve and the IMF, only then will we learn the true worth of the
concept of "creative destruction"! I wonder how Dr. Greenspan will like
the unemployment line?

2. ABOUT THE 14th DISTRICT OF TEXAS, WHICH
CONGRESSMAN RON PAUL REPRESENTS

This is not a gold mining area, so Ron Paul's views and actions are
based only on truth and not in the "pork barrell" for jobs & money for
his home area. Texas mines nearly no precious metals.

More about the district:
The 14th Congressional District of Texas stretches from the Gulf Coast
outside Houston almost to Corpus Christi, through Victoria and past
Austin, into Blanco County. The District loops around Austin, to
Williamson County, through Snook, down to Katy, then to Surfside in
Brazoria County. In all, the district encompasses more than 22,000
square miles.

The 14th District has the distinction of being, literally, where Texas
began. The first capital of the Republic of Texas was located in
Brazoria County, Texas. And Texas' founding father, Stephen F. Austin,
was from the small town of Jones Creek, located outside of Freeport.

In addition, one of the great battles for Texas Independence took place
in Gonzales County. Further, before being overpowered at Goliad, Colonel
Fannin had been at the Refugio Mission, which was located in what is now
Refugio County. More than 40 Texans died there because he was unable to
send them reenforcements.

Besides the 14th District's rich history, it is also home to a rich
diversity of economic interests. From the petrochemical companies and
rice farmers along the coast, to ranchers and cotton growers inland,
from small businesses to oil producers, the district represents not only
a cross-section of Texas' economy, but is vital to the nation.

3. SOME OF RON PAUL'S KEY BELIEFS:

Property should be owned by people, not government.

All voluntary associations should be permissionable -- economic and
social.

The government's monetary role is to maintain the integrity of the
monetary unit, not participate in fraud.

Government exists to protect liberty, not to redistribute wealth or to
grant special privileges.

The lives and actions of people are their own responsibility, not the
government's.

4. CONGRESSMAN RON PAUL'S STATEMENT
ON THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL
THAT THE IMF SELL-OFF GOLD HOLDINGS

"The Clinton Administration's proposal for the International Monetary
Fund to sell some of their gold holdings should be rejected outright as
misguided and historically offensive.

"I am pleased Rep. Jim Saxton's Joint Economic Committee has today
criticized the proposed gold sales, stating in a press release that it
'will
accommodate more IMF loans, subsidies, and moral hazard problems.'
A renewed IMF would further distort the market pricing of credit and aid
the transfer of wealth from taxpayers to a few select groups: officials
of inept, and often corrupt and brutal, governments; already over-paid
international bureaucrats who don't pay taxes themselves; and Wall
Street fat cats.

"In short, the debt relief proposal is an admission of failure of the
IMF's 'paper gold' policies. The IMF pushes irresponsible monetary
policies with ever-larger debt burdens on client countries. These
policies only exacerbate human suffering around the world as citizens of
poor countries suffer the burden of a higher cost of government, higher
cost of capital and reduced economic growth.

"This is a prime example of harming nations with the very mechanism
which purports to be helping them. For example, Ghana is one of the
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) the debt relief proposal is meant
to help. However, 40% of Ghana's total exports come from gold whose
price would fall. Such a move will also destabilize Nelson Mandela's
South Africa, which is the largest producer of gold in the world.
Needless to say, producers of gold in the United States will be
similarly hard hit.

"It is ironic that proponents of U.S. membership in the IMF argue we
have a claim to an asset. However, by selling off the IMF's only real
'assets,' any possible value to the US evaporates.

"It should not be forgotten that the money the U.S. used to pay our
initial contribution to the IMF came from the 'paper profit' of
President Franklin Roosevelt's forced confiscation of gold from the
American people. The gold that the U.S. government transferred to the
IMF should be returned to the American people, from whom it was forcibly
taken.

"I am so amazed by the cavalier attitude toward the American people and
the citizens of countries around the world, that I today introduced
HR1147 to withdraw the US from the IMF and HR1148 to abolish the Federal
Reserve."

>From http://www.house.gov/banking/31799pau.htm
Also, to see this and Ron Paul's other great proposed
legislative actions go to:
http://www.house.gov/paul/welcome.htm

Peter Asher

(04/01/1999; 19:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4089)

Thanks for speaking out on that. I have the same consideration and was a little hesitant to speak out. (Besides which, we actually had that strange yellow ball out in the sky today and I just came in from making the most of it.) GATA is most probably positive for the gold market, but my message to it's promoters is "Got your data, know how to find you, I'll call you!

bill5577

(04/01/1999; 20:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4090)

All due respect-I will not tone it down-I will step it up

USA Gold people,

Since we began GATA, our biggest defamers have come from those that are supposedly those that have an interest in the gold market.
Only Michael Kosares has come out publicly giving us some recognition. We have learned from other gold family types that private needs pre-empt what should be discussed. We thank MK very much for giving us recognition in his latest News and Views. It is our intention to support his gold coin business in a big way. That is the bonus one gets for big picture thinking and not delving into "Mickey Mouse" parochial thinking.
Why are we attacked for trying to galvanize those that feel there is no hope?

It is a rational thought that everyone who comes to USAGOLD has some sort of interest in the price of gold going up. We are becoming a vehicle for that to happen. Yet, GATA puts up a very positive piece about what is going on, and instead of good feedback, the first thing we get is to pipe down. PHOOEY on you. Not only will we not pipe down, WE intend to sound out even louder. If Mike cuts me off, so be it.
How can you prefer Hannibal Lechter to Jody Foster? Why? If you think what we are doing is just for us, fine. We recruit you to help in the hundreds of hours we spend at this to reveal some truth about what is really going on in the gold market. Join us in our gratis effort to right a big wrong. Stand up and be counted or go to a different forum than USAGOLD.
All the best,
Bill Murphy

SteveH

(04/01/1999; 20:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4091)

Here is another fine example of great info

Do you really think this isn't relevant? I most certainly do. Look at what Armstrong is reported to have said: $200 gold, yet $1000 by 2003. BTW. The VSE and VSE mining were up substantially today. Many penny's are running anew with the Spring season. Most refreshing.

But first:

I listened to two ham radio guys talking about the economy today. Here is what they said.

Ham1 said, "How are your investment whatevers doing?

"My fidelity is up 1% for the year. At least it hasn't gone negative yet," Ham2 said.

"I am 60% in cash and 40% in stocks right now."

Ham2 replied, "I plan on getting heavier into cash in November and then wait for the market to drop 3000 points and then buy back with a vengeance."

"Yeah, me too. When people wake up and realize that Y2K wasn't that bad they will get back in with a vengeance," said Ham1.

"I was listening to this guy on the radio and he was saying he was convinced that the Y2K event itself won't be bad at all but that the banks and stock market would have major problems because of the expectation," said Ham2.

"Yeah," said Ham1, "That is why I will be mostly cash soon and will put my money into bonds or a money market account or something safe like that. That way my powder will be dry for the bargains."

My comments: I noted they made no mention of gold or gold equities. Both seemed to feel safe in pulling completely out until November of the year. Both believed that the DOW would only fall 3000 points at the most and that would be the greatest buying opportunity of all time. They both conceded that the DOW and banks would suffer major consequences, not from the effects but the fear of the effects of Y2K. Remember these were just two average Joe's talking on public Amateur Radio airwaves about their perception of Y2K and stocks and money. They represent middle American opinion as it stands now. I'd say they were more well informed than most. They had not actually experienced a stock loss as of yet but seemed to be gearing up by consoling themselves that they could get out with their cash by year end. Most interesting conversation.

Here is another note I got from GATA. You be the judge. Post or not to Post GATA stuff. I vote YOU BET.

Dear fellow members of GATA,

A few days ago, in a commentary The Challenge Facing GATA, I shared how Princeton Economics International has forecast that gold will sink to the $200 range by mid-2000 -- after which 'a gold bull into 2003 and perhaps 2007 with the price of gold moving to $1000' is anticipated. I had received the information from GATA member Bruce Pugesek, who is a subscriber to the PEI service, not part of the outfit, as I had thought.

I also shared how Martin Armstrong, who is from PEI, reinforced the down on gold in an e-mail in which he let me know that the conspiracy is not against gold but against paper money. "The reason why the Euro is only an electronic form of money for the next 4 years," he wrote, "is because this is an attempt to move to purely an electronic currency using debt and credit cards."

Martin Armstrong went on to state emphatically, "Gold has simply been demonitized by the central banks and its liquidation will continue. They have no plan to ever return to a gold standard and hence its demonitzation continues through its liquidation. Gold has ceased to be a monetary base unit of value and it has simply become an investment."

I asked for and received responses to this from GATA members.

Ian Shaw put PEI's forecasting into perspective. He sent me an extract from a London seminar given by Martin Armstrong on 14 May1997, which shows that "forecasting is not an exact science and no one has a monopoly on success in this department, including PEI."

Ian wrote, "The extract relates to gold only, but I suggest you pick up the whole transcript at PEI's website in the section entitled 'transcripts' in the left hand section. The comments on oil are particularly interesting." He went on to ask, "Since the transcript still appears on PEI's website, does it reflect their current thinking and, if so, how do they reconcile it with their present predictions on gold and other commodities?"

This is what Martin Armstrong had to say about Gold in May 1997:-

"In the 1970s wheat prices peaked in 1974 and crude oil peaked at that time, however, gold did not peak until 1980 at the end of the entire inflationary cycle. Most people in the gold market are currently extremely bearish. We see central bank selling and producer selling, etc. From a timing basis gold does look as though it is likely to continue to fall going into early next year (1998) before we will see a change in trend. We see that many producers are making the wrong mistakes at the right time again. In Australia gold is currently below production costs and we are seeing a great deal of forward selling by the producers at this time. Accordingly, this is putting a huge short position in the market. Once we get closer to EMU we will also see the central bank selling dissipate.

"The one thing that we see at this stage that is very encouraging for gold is the fact that it appears as though it has made its low in terms of all currencies. Gold made a low in terms of US $'s in 1985 and just finally hit its low in terms of yen and European currencies in 1995. We have always found that the difference between a bull market and a mere reaction is very clear. A bull market is something that takes place in terms of all currencies. An example of a reaction is when gold rallied to $500 in 1987 in terms of US $'s. If you look at a chart of gold in terms of D marks you will not find this rally. So it appears that the lows are finally in place and we just need to see the sentiment begin to change. As I mentioned earlier, we will begin to see more and more concerns over EMU, taxation levels, social program funding. All of these concerns combined with help change the sentiment towards gold. One of the reasons gold rallied from $280 in 1982 to $500 within three months was rumors of social security going bust and also rumors that Chase Manhattan was going to go bust that summer.

"Gold does not rally due to inflation. Our research has shown that gold declines with steady incremental inflation. All the major rallies in gold have taken place during periods of uncertainty. Gold is not a hedge against inflation and never has been. Instead gold is a hedge against uncertainty. So we believe that 1998 is going to be the turning point for gold and it should then continue higher into around the 2003 time period. Again, our forecast might sound a bit crazy but our computer is showing that gold could reach at least $1000 and perhaps even $1200. If you consider that the 1980 high adjusted for inflation is around $2000 today, so in nominal terms reaching the $1000 level is only a 50% retracement. If we do see a real crisis in confidence going into 2003, we could then possibly see $4000 to $5000 gold because the value of currency at that time will also be in question.

"I don't believe that this is a doom and gloom scenario for the future. If you understand how capital moves and where it is going, you can make a lot of money. You simply have to realize that it is going to be a major factor in the markets over the next several years. If you continue to trade based on the old fixed exchange rate theories, you are going to be caught on the wrong side of the market every time.

"The marketplace has become very fluid. I believe that by 2003 we will be headed towards some type of global fixed exchange rate system or some type of world currency similar to the old gold standard. Companies and governments will no longer be able to handle the foreign exchange fluctuations. I also believe that after 2003 we may be able to experience the same type of economic stability that we enjoyed during the pre-World War II period."

- - - - -
So what happened between May 1997 and whenever it was that PEI revised its forecast. Judging from what Farfel has written with regard to Martin Armstrong's letter it would seem that M.A. has joined the "goon squad" going short on gold.

Farfel writes:

When the man states that there is no conspiracy against gold, it is
analogous to Himmler declaring that there are no concentration camps in Germany. After all, Armstrong IS part of the "gold short cartel" and certainly one of its leading mouthpieces in his relentless efforts to
expose gold's current severe "overvaluation."

Yet, in his own unique way, he is "charitable" to long suffering
goldbugs. He is willing to acknowledge the existence of conspiracies,
although in this case, he declares there is a conspiracy against paper
money with the ultimate aim of "doing away with the underground economy" in order to increase the collection of taxes.

Of course, by stating that the global economic powers wish to do away with paper money, it naturally follows that they particularly would like to do away with the clunky precious metals (as money). So, the logic of his argument dictates that we accept that gold is certain to drop in price...and drop very hard (all the way to $200 in the short term!). However, lest goldbugs become unduly disenchanted by his pessimistic prediction of gold's price, he offers them a glimmer of hope in stating that gold should rise to $1000 by the year 2003!

Now, don't ask me by what bizarre logic he figures gold will resurrect
itself from its dive to $200, especially since he declares that the
global economic powers are intent upon demonetizing the metal. If such demonetization were to occur, then conceivably 40,000 tons of gold would be sold into the market as a commodity by Central banks, enough metal to supply normal world demand for the next fifteen years.

Despite the fact that the Bank of International Settlements transacts in
gold francs, Armstrong insists that gold is no longer a monetary base
unit of value; rather, it is now simply an investment. Yet, given his
certitude that gold is heading for 200 shortly, he must certainly regard
it as one hell of lousy investment.

In effect, Armstrong speaks fluently in a language formerly known as
Orwellian "Doublespeak" but in contemporary American parlance, now known as "Clintonese." It is essentially impossible for him to discuss gold in rational, intelligent terms without introducing all variety of contradictory, oxymoronic concepts. The only reason Armstrong insists gold will fall to 200 has more to do with protecting his precious metal short positions than in any true belief in the prattle he spouts.

I think Armstrong is fundamentally an intelligent fellow who, along with his PEI clientele, got involved on an increasingly grand scale in the gold/silver carry trades. Most likely, they probably embarked down the PM shorting road in the belief that these carry trades would ensure a continuous stream of profits that could be used sometime in the future to repurchase much cheaper metals in order to close out their loans.

What they never counted on were the complications that the year, 1999, would present to their scheme....specifically, exponential increases in PM demand owing to Y2K concerns.... a potential stock/bond market crash causing a flight from paper to assets possessing intrinsic value.... a Balkan War with the potential to create a Russian/Chinese rejection of US Dollar holdings in favor of increased PM holdings... a developing international paranoia that might conceivably culminate in a desperate, "Every Central Bank for Itself!" scenario.

No doubt this is a critical, "left field" year for Armstrong and his PM
shorting friends. The calm, prosperous linearity of the Nineties seems to be falling apart in this most unusual, turbulent, pre-Millenial
year. In such a volatile environment, it takes a lot of (forgive my use
of this word) CONSPIRACY to keep the gold price moving in a downward path. Yet, for Armstrong and friends, it is imperative the metal fall in value. My own guess is that gold at 200 is probably the price at which the metal shorts feel complete capitulation will occur by all goldbugs, at which point they can swoop in and obtain at least 8000 tons of metal (via failed producers and Central Bank panic sales) in order to cover their enormous gold loans accumulated over this decade via usage of esoteric gold-based derivatives. Of course, once those loans are covered, then it will "make sense" to run the price of gold back to $1000 or higher. Hence, Armstrong's declaration that gold will see $1000 in the year 2003 or shortly thereafter.

- - - - -
To the lighter side, Glen Williams wrote:

Holy cow batman!! thieves are plundering gotham city! i hope pei is wrong about the price of gold. i am getting a bit depressed about the negative slant on gold. i have had a dream where gold shot up $40 from 283 to 323, but no indication of that so far in reality. all of your efforts are much appreciated to get a handle on this slimy mess and expose it! (for otherworldly thoughts on gold moving up see www.dreamtime.net).

Well, let's hope your dream comes true soon, Glen.

- - - - -
In The Challenge Facing GATA commentary, I also wrote about the Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chretian, adding his voice to the chorus, "The I.M.F. should sell some of its gold to help the poor countries."

Ken Reser, the Yukon Gold Miner, was so angry about this, he immediately e-mailed to Preston Manning the leader of the official opposition here in Canada. "I sent him a very long and detailed account of Gata and my feeling on Jean Cretiens' support of IMF Gold sales, along with facts regarding ex P.M. Brian Mulroneys' selling off of Canada's gold reserves before becoming a director of Barrick Gold.

"I have advised Preston Manning that the Reform Party of Canada needs to have the Finance critic get an education on the workings of Gold. If raised in the house of commons, Canada's Gold Reserves being sold off could be the biggest can of worms the Liberals and Tories ever faced. We'll see how Reform respond as this is my third and most extensive exposure of these matters to Manning. He has replied before but nothing further was said. Now I have others following my lead with the emails to Reform and he might take the bait yet!!!!!!

- - - - -
Then Jim Lindsey and Doc Gary Matthews emailed me that Ronald Cambre, the chairman, CEO and President of Newmont Mining has made strong representations through the media that if the International Monetary Fund really wants to help undeveloped countries, it should give them gold to help them stabilize their currencies. Cambre has let it be known that he has had talks with the US Congress, the Gold Institute and the World Gold Council about this proposal.

I hope to be able to bring you more information about this soon.

- - - - -
Good friends, it is Maudy Thursday and my focus is shifting to what is for me of ultimate importance � the unfinished business of Jesus, reflected this Easter weekend in the crucifying situation in Kosovo.

I remain, for God and Gold
yours truly,

Boudewijn Wegerif (Bodwin)
Moderator GATA E-mail Group

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Peter Asher

(04/01/1999; 20:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4092)

Steve

Thanks for the printout on Ron Paul. Imagine an election platform with the slogan "Heston and Paul, Will fix it all."

Unfortunately, for people to get in a position of real power, they have to be backed financially and editorially by the very interests that they oppose in their intentions to create a sane and ethical society. I read recently that a 'remake' was in the works, of a 52 year old movie called "Meet John Doe", which stared Gary Cooper. It's about a guy like Ron Paul who captures the hearts and minds of the people and is on the threshold of victory when------( I won't give it away).

Beware of wolves in sheople clothing!!

High Density

(04/01/1999; 21:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4093)

test

gold is good

Goldfly

(04/01/1999; 21:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4094)

Aragorn....

You gonna make-a me blush!!

Thanks.

GF

Peter Asher

(04/01/1999; 21:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4095)

This is cute

If I read this on Forum, then I apologize for the redundancy, but Robin got it the other day from her vast Y2K sources. Allegedly, FEMA removed their long standing recommendation that people keep two weeks emergency supplies for emergencies such as blizzards hurricanes and such. And then replaced that with a recommended emergency supply level for Y2K of --- 2 or 3 days! You read that right, it was not a misprint!

Aristotle

(04/01/1999; 22:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4096)

To High Density--

I'd say the results of your assay are quite correct.
Gold IS good. ---Aristotle

Richard, Oregon

(04/01/1999; 22:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4097)

##### $289.50 #####

Peter A - Voyager - I like the Oregon Round Table meeting idea. I'll pickup some of that fresh Oregon Salmon and grill it to perfection. Or maybe just a good steak and a Widmer beer. Nice to hear from others hear in the great green state. Rain to date in the west Willamtte Valley 31.50" with winds peak to 45mph out of the SSW. Got rain!

YGM

(04/01/1999; 22:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4098)

@ Peter

Peter the most glaring reason Gov't and all their agencies
downplay Y2K is to preserve the stability of Banks. Myself
I had not given this much thought. But a couple months
ago a friend, who is an IT Technician in Ottawa for Fed
Gov't (y2k upgrades) told me it has everything to do w/ the Banks. You know the $1.17 story for every $100.00 of deposits. This only became glaring once he said it. Check
out latest BIS press release on year 2000. Near page
bottom see (in blue) The Supervisory Contingency
Planning Process. (click it)

3 main concerns they have are--
--Business disruption
--Erosion or loss of confidence by depositors & Bank runs
--Increased risk of asset deterioration, Bankruptcies and
insolvency.

http://www.bis.org/press/index.htm

"GO GATA"---YGM

YGM

(04/01/1999; 22:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4099)

Looks like you hit a nerve or two elsewhere already.
Gold forums should all welcome Gata. It is all about
Gold so why not.-- Join the ranks of those trying to fight
back .Whether Quixote kills the windmill or not at least
we will have tried!!! ---YGM
GO GATA.

High Density

(04/01/1999; 23:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4100)

****$274.70****

GOLD, after a week of comatose, is going back to last summers 20 year low.

YGM

(04/01/1999; 23:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4101)

High D

Where did you get that price?
Kitco shows 280.40

High Density

(04/02/1999; 00:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4102)

****THE FIFTH HORSEMAN IS INFLATION****

The four horseman of the apocolypse have revealed their identities. They ride their mounts with arrogance. They keep not to the shadows anymore. And the eyes of all see them.
In America a new age of liberalism was born with their new president. He invited his countrymen to forget their common sense, and follow his. Sensing their eagerness, the first horseman appeared. He became known as the master of the stock market mania.
After awhile another horseman came. This horseman needed no invitation, for he was a hunter. He watched his prey from the innards of a typhoon and struck his unsuspecting asian victims with complete surprise, one after the other, to the pleasure of the first horseman and the dollar he so prized.
The third horseman had been there from the beginning and never chose to be revealed. His mount was quiet as the morning mist, but for a few men who rang the alarm, y2k would have never been known until it was too late.
The fourth horseman was young and full of life, yet wise beyond his years. His allegiance was to the europeans, who had made him their new currency.
So, today, the four horseman ride with gusto. Maybe you have seen them in your city. Maybe you've heard a goldmeister speak of their coming. Well my friend, they are here. The wisest of the goldmeisters speak of another horseman, unknown to the first four, although he is rightfully their master. He is inflation, and there are tales that he and his mount have set foot on their path and are headed your way. People should have seen him coming sooner, they will say, for all along he mastered the stock market mania with an ever increasing premium being placed on the ownership of stock. Yet people paid more and more for more and more. The Japanese, and the others who have been devastated by the coming of the horseman, may help inflation to flourish by letting fly their vast stocks of dollar reserves, so they may come home eventually, to roost in oblivion. And there is WAR, the master of all horseman to ever come, and its pleasant breeding grounds for inflation. The adventures of the american military over the past decade will have to be addressed, and paid for.
It is said by some that the vast debt may not be repaid on time, and russia may answer to this, as may others. These are the signs of inflation, the final horseman of the century. A word from the wise: protect your wealth. Buy Gold!!!

Silver Tongue

(04/02/1999; 05:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4103)

High Density

Very nice work on your previous post. I personally am persuaded that the severe retraction of the paper market is immenent. If there was ever a house of cards, this is it. I am putting my 401(k) money ( which is not already in gold mutual funds-for which I have suffered losses over the last few years as well as the ridicule of those in the plan who are boasting 40% yearly increases) in a government securities mutual fund until after the first of the year. I suspect that at that point a big drop in the market will occur at which point I intend to evaluate what is available then. I have made the mistake of putting most of my free assets into the gold market and instead of making money I have beeen pistolwhipped by the gold manipulation which has occurred time and time again over the past several months.

Jon

(04/02/1999; 05:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4104)

y2k

Both Canada and State of New York started fiscal year 2000 yesterday with no computer problems.

(04/02/1999; 06:49:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4105)

Bill

Hey Bill - as I suspected when I made my post, it might be misinterpreted. I have absolutely no problem with GATA and it's goals. If you have read my previous posts you would realize we share the same philosophy. My problem with your post was the attempted commercialization of this forum for whatever reason. It matters not to me what you are soliciting contributions for, simply it is my view that this type of activity is not the purpose of this forum. Simple as that. If every post turns into some kind of solicitation for some cause or another I will indeed find another forum as this will have turned into just another place to put your ads. Unless I'm mistaken, USAGOLD does not solicit business on it's own forum. If I misinterpreted your intentions, my apologies.

To reiterate, I enjoy your commentaries and wish you luck in your cause in which I agree. My reference to toning it down refers to the solicitations and offers of merchandise for sale. In my opinion this is not the place for that. Sorry if that wasn't clear. Thanks for your consideration.

ET

(04/02/1999; 07:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4106)

YGM

Hey YGM - as I mentioned to Bill, you are entitled to support any cause you like. I've been contributing to many forums for years and I've seen what happens when they become a place to obtain free advertisement. Here is a recent example from a previous post;

shop.theglobe.com * One Stop Shopping * Free Shipping in the U.S.!
Live Personal Shopper * Satisfaction Guaranteed * No Hassle Returns!
Accessories, Apparel, Gourmet, Jewelry, Kids, Outdoors, Sports, More!
http://clickhere.egroups.com/click/7

eGroup home: http://www.eGroups.com/list/gata
Free Web-based e-mail groups by eGroups.com

Do you see the problem here? What if soon we have the Vatican here soliciting contributions for Catholicism? How about the US Treasury here promoting it's next bond auction? Before long the forum will become one big yahoo with fewer and fewer ideas actually being debated and more and more causes soliciting contributions or hawking merchandise. Sorry, but that's not for me. You may disagree. At any rate, thanks for your response.

ET

The Stranger

(04/02/1999; 08:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4107)

Your Tax Dollars at Work

The Russian Navy sails for the Adriatic while Clinton asks the IMF to sell our gold in part so that Russian sailors can get paid. Is it just me, or what?

Hasn't Russia already cost the American taxpayer enough in this century? Why don't we tell those ne'er-do-wells where they can stick it? As Aristotle would probably say...sheeeeeesh!

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 08:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4108)

Today's Gold Market Report: Market Closed

MARKET UPDATE (4/2/99): Markets are closed today. There will not be a report.

I would like to wish all a Happy Easter/Passover. May God bless and keep all the
goldmeisters.

See you here, Monday.

Call 800-869-5115 for a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Ask for Marie. The April
issue introduces a Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse to join the other Four -- Y2K, Asian
Contagion, Euro Introduction and Overvalued Stocks.

Also join us at the USAGOLD FORUM where a contest is in progress (all weekend) in
which our esteemed contestants and posters -- old and new -- speculate on the identity of this
Fifth menacing Horsemen. Please join us for the fun and interesting conversation.

Alchemist

(04/02/1999; 10:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4109)

******April9gold GC9M******* #####Fifth Horseman######

First gold close $288.80
The Fifth Horseman the American Dollar
I believe that we will see during the coarse of the year a major drop in the dollar which will trigger a state of emergency. This can be blamed on the Y2K crisis but Y2K will not be the actual cause. It will enable the introduction of a new currency unit (new dollars) with the implementation of a dual system, leaving offshore dollars offshore. This new dollar will be backed by a certain value of gold.

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 10:17:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4110)

Post for a Snowy Day: On the Importance of the World Gold Council Announcement of Pension Fund Gold Purchases

I don't know if anybody has spoken to this issue over the past couple of days here, but I thought I would make an attempt at raising its significance. It's a snowy Good Friday here in Denver with one of those heavy tree breaker snowstorms parked over this golden city at the foot of the Rockies. We won't be going anywhere today, and the markets are closed today; so if this snowstorm insists on parking overhead making moving about problematic, I'm going to park myself at the FORUM.

Sometime back I wrote a magazine article for Money World which also appeared in News & Views that discussed the relative importance of converting a portion of your stock market winnings to gold as a way of preserve thing asset appreciation obtained there. As a matter of fact, when we (my publisher and I) developed the subtitle to "The ABCs of Gold Investing" -- "Preserving Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership" -- I envisioned a cautious and bewildered stock/bond investor going to the bookstore on a day like today, encountering the subtitle and thinking there might something worthwhile between those red and gold covers.

I wrote this in the Money World article: "In early 1997 (even before the latest run-up) stock markets around the world were substantially overvalued by any reasonable standard -- particularly U.S. stocks. At the same time, investors from all walks of life were reportedly pouring their life savings into a market that was never meant as a savings vehicle -- but a market for distributing speculative risk. The dangers were apparent -- in fact bigger than life."

Recently the United States government reported that the U.S. savings rate was 0% -- you read that right -- 0%. It doesn't take a Louis Ruykeyser to see that one: American savings are largely in the form of grossly overvalued stocks, and two: The public is virtually tapped out -- a warning sign to any prudent investor.

Well, the World Gold Council, in a report that has gone largely unnoticed in gold circles, announced a breakthrough of enormous significance -- U.S. pension funds have begun moving to gold as a protection for their wealth and a means to preserving the profits they have already accumulated in the great stock market run-up of the 1990s.

In the small study I did for the article already mentioned I made a very simple and direct comparison between two portfolios starting with $100,000: One was invested completely in stocks beginning in 1971 (the last time we a major correction in stocks) and the other invested 70% and 30% in gold. I then tracked these portfolios through 1979.

By 1972 the diversified portfolio had already exceeded the value of the 100% gold as stocks fell and gold began its long ascent (by the way after over a decade of artificial price manipulation by the United States and Great Britain). By 1974 the 30% invested in gold had become worth the same amount as the 70% invested in stocks. By the end of the period, the diversified portfolio was worth $334,500. The all-stock portfolio was worth $111, 775. I used the DJIA index to develop a sub-index. I used the London average gold price (which for 1979 was $300) and not the $875 peak.

This is indeed a remarkable discovery and a set of facts and figures that totally undermines the arguments of gold opponents that the shiny yellow is a useless and barbarous relic in the modern era that should be cast in the silo along with corn and soybeans.

It now appears, according to a report by the World Gold Council, that others have begun to see the today's situation in the equities market much the way I did when the article was written. According to a Reuters article published March 30, "...U.S. pension funds bought at least 100 tons of gold in the last two years as insurance against volatile equity markets, providing gold producers a strong untapped market for the beleaguered metal."

100 tons of metal exceeded the heavily publicized Australian sale of 80 tons. It equals the equally well-publicized potential Swiss sale of 130 tons a year. In a market stretched to its supply limit by over-leasing and hedging schemes, a trend like this in the other direction could spell plenty of trouble for the bullion banks, mining companies and small central banks that feed at the carry-trade trough. And this is just a beginning.

"With $7 trillion in assets stashed in U.S. pension funds, increased sales of gold to pension managers could help lift the world gold market from the doldrums and provide a
safeguard against sales of gold by central banks," WGC chief portfolio strategist Richard Scott-Ram said at the Investing in the Americas mining conference in Miami Beach. "I think we can take it a long way. If they (pension funds) put well under 1 percent of their assets in gold, that's a lot of gold," Scott-Ram said. ``It could transform the gold market."

Indeed. If gold advocates are looking for a foil to the carry trade, this could very well be it. I can remember not that long ago some gold stock enthusiasts pointing out that the capitalization of Coca Cola alone equaled that of the world's top mining companies. Applying the same principle to the physical gold market, if fund managers began a move to gold it would the gold price through the roof in a matter of months given the momentum, crowd psychology that permeates today's investment markets.

Then something very interesting was mentioned at the bottom of the article that all private gold investors should very seriously take to their golden hearts:

Quoting directly from the Reuters article: "Scott-Ram said the World Gold Council, the industry's sales arm, was actively marketing gold to pension managers as a reliable hedge that can actually increase a portfolio's total return by reducing volatility, allowing a fund manager to then put equity assets in riskier investments with a potentially higher return."

In case it hasn't registered let me be direct: If the World Gold Council is even moderately successful in this active marketing, it could very easily push small gold investors out of the market. The bullion going to make coins will instead go in brick form to major funds -- and not just pension funds, but mutual funds as well, attempting to hedge their overblown equity holdings.

I don't know that the article mentioned weighed in these discussions, but it very well could be copied and filed in the "Prudential Management" folder. The article is title appropriately enough "The Golden Constant" -- and if you haven't read it, call our offices and we will be happy to send a copy.

Recently, onlychild made a post here I found particularly relevant. The discussion had gotten around to the prospects for $200 gold -- the result of a deflationary collapse. onlychild said:

"$200 Gold Bring it on baby! I'm ready, I'll sell everything I own to cash in on that action. Hey, Big Brother are you listening? We'll take all you can send our way! This will make LBJ's follies look like a Girl Scout cookie sale!"

He expresses a widespread sentiment among gold accumulators. I keep coming back to the concept of counting our blessings for today's gold price. We are able to buy cheap insurance. Throughout the gold sales of the 1960s shrewd investors and European central bankers accumulated the metal quietly and patiently, while the attempt was made to keep the dollar at 35 to the ounce of gold. Now a similar exercise has been undertaken, this time primarily through the use of paper derivative instruments (whether or not it is driven by government or speculators or whomever is inconsequential. What matters is that you and I as investors can pick up currency cheap.

All the goldmeisters should seriously consider what it would mean to them if the World Gold council were even moderately successful not just in terms of a rising price, but a plummeting supply of those glittery - little - yellow - coins we have all become so fond of.

I will leave you with this though out of The Golden Constant article:

"There is an old formulation that an ounce of gold will always buy a quality new suit not matter the value of the currency." At the present a "quality" new suit (depending upon where you buy your suits) is priced in the $600 range making gold substantially undervalued. Even with the dollar's current strength, if we simply imputed to gold the change in value of the world's major currencies vis-a-vis the dollar, gold should be in the $500 range or better.

The full Reuters/WGC story is at:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.html

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 10:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4111)

Editors...A Small Tribute

My apologies for the grammatical errors, left out words etc below. I am lost without my editors when I write the more serious pieces -- George Cooper, here in Denver, who has an acute eye for the technical, grammatical,etc; and Michelle Berberet at MoneyWorld magazine -- the finest content editor I have ever worked with.

Richard, Oregon

(04/02/1999; 10:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4112)

*****Fifth Horseman*****

I believe the fifth horseman to be inflation. A world wide inflation, but there's something more to this inflation than just run-of-the-mill increases in the cost of goods and services. AsY2K has become the catalyst for unprecedented gold buying, the increase in the price of oil will trigger a run to inflation as we've not observed in many years. Competition in business high, every cost is cut to the bone. Oil will be the one item that will shift the delicate balance to the inflation side. The small hole in the dike NOW has a reason to open wide. Oil has an effect on the manufacture AND delivery of nearly every item on the free market. The stock market will reflect oil price increases. There is no escaping it, like a thief in the night. You awoke this morning and it has already begun.

High Density

(04/02/1999; 11:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4113)

The last snow of winter is a good thing.

At an early age we inhabitants of the northern latitudes learn to watch the signs in the weather. The last snow of winter is a joyous event! I too am better off today at the computer, as the last snow of winter falls outside. Soon, the warm sun of spring, and another golden summer to come!
Silver Tongue, I am sorry to hear of your pistolwhipping. I too know folks with especially "mobile" 401(k)'s that allow them to move monies from mutual fund to mutual fund. I have always cocked my head when listening to these people tell of their financial adventures. Sure, they do well, as your colleagues have done. But their winnings exist only on paper and until they have "cash in hand" it is but an imaginary dream.
USAGOLD-interesting about the defensive positioning of pension funds and the like. This is a wise avenue to pursue for the WGC. I have definitely taken note of several "talking heads" over the past year or so that are recommending their clients defensively position their portfolio's and to do so with GOLD as well as Gold equities.
We may end up watching these fund managers set the tempo for the gold market in the near term!

Arizona Hiker

(04/02/1999; 11:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4114)

******April9gold GC9M****** #####Fifth Horseman#####

Before making a few comments, the contest considerations:

Gold will close at 286.

As any WCW fan knows, the Fifth Horseman is Arn Anderson (sp?) (smile)
Actually, I believe the Fifth Horseman is inflation. It was curious to watch the market's positive reaction to the recent PPI/CPI data and to listen to the talking heads on CNBC telling me that energy prices were down during the reporting period.

Of course, at the time the report came out, energy prices were already going parabolic and anyone should have been able to figure out that the inflation data was even more "rear view mirror" than usual.

In my neck of the words (Mesa, Arizona) gasoline prices have literally sky rocketed. In the space of 6 weeks, I went from paying .85 per gallon for regular unleaded to 1.28 per gallon. That's called a 50.5% increase in six weeks, folks.

anyone trying to send their kids to a private grade school or in the market for a new automobile, or staying at a hotel can tell you that there is quite a bit of inflation and that the government lost their ability to accurately track it long ago.

actually, they are probably quite content to misreport the numbers -- keeping a lid on COLA adjustments for the folks on social security, while continuing to bring in significant tax revenues.

I would like to comment on the recent post concerning the possible diversification into gold on the part of pension funds. three statements in the report, I believe, bear further scrutiny.

1. "... if fund managers begin a move to gold it would (send) the gold price through the roof in a matter of months..."

While this would be nice for all of us, let us remember that it is unclear whether the fund managers would be willing to continue to add to gold positions at higher quotations. It is also unclear at what price levels they would exit such hedges.

In addition, public buying of gold has already increased quite dramatically, with no upward price pressure noted.

2. "...it could very easily push small gold investors out of the market..."

who is to say what additional supply would become available at a higher quotation. if demand on the part of the pension fund managers was dramatic, would it not provide extra incentives for central bankers to part with additional supply, especially to the extent that the quotation was firmer?

I think you are assuming here that the supply will remain fairly constant and that could prove to be a very misguided assumption.

3. "marketing gold...as a reliable hedge that can actually increase a portfolio's total return by reducing volatility, allowing a fund manager to put equity assets in riskier investments with a potentially higher return."

I think you can make a strong argument for gold's ability to hedge a portfolio in general... to suggest, however, that it would allow you to more successfully make riskier equity investments is not clear. we have all seen in recent years, for example, the disparity in the performance between large and small caps.

I support the efforts of the World Gold Council but I think we need to be careful when it comes to projecting the resulting benefits from this program -- especially when it is unclear to what extent fund managers will choose to hedge with gold in the first place.

One more thought before closing. While I support the efforts of GATA, I am quite suspect of theories which are grounded on conspiracy or manipulation of the markets.
Why?

First, if this is a conspiracy, it is becoming a very well advertised one. It belies the very nature of a conspiracy.

Second, we are all familiar with government intervention in the currency markets. It is quite common for a central banker to try to temporarily halt the slide in a currency, for example, with intervention. But it is short lived. The intervention can not stop the currency (or commodity, or equity) from going where it belongs; rather, it can simply make that move a more orderly one.

If gold demand truly outstripped supply, the price would move higher. I can't get away from this fundamental supply/demand relationship.

Hopefully there will come a day (sometime soon I pray) when the demand will pick up to an extent that any selling is quickly absorbed and any intervention designed to keep the price of gold down would be, at best, temporary.

Careful, though, about reaching conclusion regarding which events will bring this scenario into play. Pension fund buying? maybe. maybe no.

In the meantime, talk of conspiracy, manipulation etc. says more about the current psychology among gold bulls. We are tired and battered and so we turn to any corner, trying to find an explanation why price is not in sync with our world view.

The silver lining is that this is behavior typically found at market bottoms... the bottom being carved out now is long and old. The longer gold languishes and builds a base under $300, the more powerful the eventual up move will be. Then talk of conspiracy and manipulation will be long forgotten.

Good luck to my fellow gold bulls. Beyond the ridge, the first rays of dawn emerge.

High Density

(04/02/1999; 13:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4115)

ARIZONA HIKER

Good points to keep in mind while analyzing golds inevitable advance.

Clint H

(04/02/1999; 13:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4116)

#### Fith Horseman ####

The Fifth Horseman will be the gold shorts.

If the bottom of the market is at $280 or there about, the gold shorts are truly in trouble. If one starts at a market price of $400 there is a lot of room to keep selling short each time there are high price contracts to cover. Drive the price down and the purchaser lets the contract expire. Plenty of room. The only problem is that it takes more new contracts at lower prices to cancel contracts that are due. Each time this is done, money is made on expired contracts but the short exposure gets larger.
Did bill5577 (post 4048) say there are something like 187,558 short positions? If the price can't be hammered down at settlement time there will be a mild panic amongst the professionals. I think they are already scared.
At the bottom all one can do is slide around. If we are at the bottom, the shorts will have to cover soon. The price goes up. This will be front page news because some may default. The young inexperienced fund managers will start a run to be the first to get loaded up with the yellow stuff. They did it to the stock market They will rush to gold.
Less than 3% of the population has even one gold coin. 97% of Americans have never held a gold coin in their hand in their life. If another 3% of Americans start buying gold the supply would be overtaxed. That's with just 6% of the population buying.
Add to this the panic buying by 8 thousand fund managers and there is a serious supply problem. A serious supply problem is only a problem to those who did not plan ahead. Those with gold will make the rules.
All the above is down the tubes if Armstrong is right about gold sliding to $200. The shorts will still have room to operate. They will dig deeper holes.
Just a thought.

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 13:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4117)

Y2K and the I.R.S.

I have heard that much of the recent efforts at reforming the IRS are a direct response to the fact that they are woefully out-of-sync with Y2K readiness. In an attempt to function AT ALL after the millennium, they are undergoing radical changes in policy and procedure to maintain their ability to generate revenue for the Federal government. Their primary concern is that they will have lost their past ability to track millions of individual incomes, dividends, capital gains, etc, putting them in a vulnerable state.

Apparently, this is the proposed new tax form for the new millennium that is the front-runner as a stop-gap measure until the IRS gets on its feet again.
_________________________________________________
*1040 EZ-2-DO TAX FORM*
----------------------------

1. How much money did you make? . . . . . . . $____________

2. Send it to us. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TOTAL $____________

U.S. Gov't. Form 8765309
_________________________________________________

YGM

(04/02/1999; 13:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4118)

Just got to your post. I see your point re advertising. I
don't like the add on either. Pure Gata info as long as
it doesn't get repetitious & overwhelming is good in
my opinion. I find Y2K information gets wrongly ignored &
disscounted by the accompanying offers to sell related
products. I just hope that everyone who has an interest
in Gold be a little tolerant of Gata supporters as we have to
fight two opponants at once. One for credibility and others
who will soon be named in a court of Law. I can only say
that most of us mean no disrespect as long as we get
a little back. This you have shown. Thanks for that--YGM
*Go GATA*

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 13:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4119)

ClintH and gold stats--

One of my favorite gold stats really hammers home the scarcity of gold:
If all of the gold ever mined in the history of the world were to be evenly distributed among every living person on Earth today, you would get only about two-thirds of an ounce...approximately the equivalent of three British Sovereigns.
Kinda hard to believe that you could obtain your "birth-right" quantity of gold for only 200 dollars. I would like to know what each person's "fair share" would be of the world's paper currency supply--total M2 of all nations. I'll bet it is a lot more than $200!!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

YGM

(04/02/1999; 13:51:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4120)

My Lack of Understanding

is really bugging me! If anyone could enlighten me
as these stats are hard to figure out when you have no
experience with this side of the Gold markets.
The Tokyo Comm Exchange in the members open interest
section, shows massive short side positions by Sumitomo,
Mitsubishi, and Mitsui & Co. What I want to figure out is
(besides the whole damn thing) what is the difference
between the Total & Net Positions??
http://www.tocom.or.jp/
Any clarity would be much appreciated!--YGM

Jeff

(04/02/1999; 14:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4121)

Test

Just doing a little tune-up. -Jeff

Jeff

(04/02/1999; 14:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4122)

Test Again

Testing again. -Jeff

Jeff

(04/02/1999; 14:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4123)

Test Again - Last did not work

http://www.usagold.com-Jeff

Jeff

(04/02/1999; 14:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4124)

Test Again - Last did not work

http://www.usagold.com-Jeff

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 14:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4125)

Just as all roads lead to Rome,

all links lead to the Home Page.

Kinda cool...
(now quit it!)

:-)

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 14:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4126)

Hey fellow Knights, do you know what this means?

We're going to have active links at the Round Table!

Michael, you're the best! (Good luck, Jeff, we're behind you!) ---Aristotle

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 15:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4127)

Arizona....

To continue with the discussion:

My numbers correspond to your points, each well-taken:

1. I am operating under an assumption, rightly or wrongly, that fundamental and/or technical considerations take a back seat to momentum these days -- the madness of crowds. In other words, I will pose it as a question: Can the mania psycology spill over to gold? These fund managers tend to run in groups from one thing to another, if (and I too emphasize the "if") they run to gold together the pressure on the thin gold supply would be heavy.

If you look at Buffett's entrance into the silver market as a template, he took up 20% of the warehoused silver with 2% of his fund. By logical extension, he could have purchased all the above ground silver with 10% of his fund -- an astonishing consideration since this is just one of many investment funds.

As for the selling, I agree we do not know at what price levels they would sell. At the same time, we do not know how these buyers will view gold when they incorporate it in their holdings. I for one believe that Buffett -- based on his history -- is a long term holder as a hedge. Who's to say there are not enough out there like Buffett to make a difference.

If you will note carefully the World Gold Council approach, they emphasize the monetary aspects over the commodity. Therefore, they will not be pushing gold purchases for quick and easy profits. Also, as you can see, we are talking two entirely markets when we talk of individuals and the funds -- going back to the Berkshire example, the funds have massive purchasing power which will dwarf what's already occurred.

2. Yes, it would. But sales have been dramatically over-played as Terry Smeeton, the former forex desk manager at Bank of England, pointed out this past week. If leases are what you are referring to, this remains the great "X-Factor" in the gold market. We do not have any figures as to what proportion of the cb gold has already been leased and how much is available. I wish I could provide a better answer but I cannot. We have heard that 8000 tons have already been leased and we have seen figures as high as 12000 tons, but we don't for sure that either one of these figures is accurate, nor do we know the terms. You also have the inverse of your proposition. What if central banks decide to accumulate gold as has recently been the rumblings from China?

3. That's a WGC comment not mine, but I see what they are trying to say. Money managers are always looking for ways to justify more risk and better return. I don't know if I agree with it, but I can understand why they would present this argument to a portfolio manager. And, yes, I agree this whole idea of fund buying remains at the moment, except for 200 tons, in the realm of theory.

All in all, Arizona, I can see your point about getting overly excited about this prospect. We have all been disappointed before. At the same time, the World Gold Council just got word from Anglogold, the world's largest mining company, that it is willing to make $20 million plus annual commitment to building the market for investment gold. The whole package is exciting to those of us in the gold business who have watched nothing happen in that arena for a decade or more. I also think that the World Gold Council has developed the right message.

I, for one, think we are in for some exciting times. To me, it all comes down to a public relations war between the bulls and the bears for the hearts and minds of the typical investor and fund manager. So far the bears have had a clear playing field with the press in their corner for better than a decade. Now the industry is fighting back. It's about time we have had some help from the big guns on that score. I believe it is a going to make a difference.

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 15:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4128)

WGC Says Pensions Are Untapped Gold Market

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.html

Test: Hope I don't freeze the Forum.

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 15:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4129)

WGC Says Pensions Are Untapped Gold Market

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.htmlThis is way cool!

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 16:38:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4130)

Can it be both ways?

I must confess, I have been more than a bit puzzled by the totality of the information projected by GATA. Maybe someone could clear this up for me.
I see the insidious, negative spin by the media as the single most destructive element in the free gold market today. An uneducated public, or worse--a brainwashed public, is not going to participate efficiently for the "proper" functioning of a capitalistic, free-market society. How was that line...'they don't need to lock the prison doors in Siberia'? Something like that. An unnaturally manipulated people will not recognize and seek that which is in their best interest. I would suggest that the media's role is the closest thing to a conspiracy against gold to be found in this whole affair. It should be attacked, and attacked hard, because it is wrong. Destructive and wrong.

Here is my primary point of confusion. GATA correctly points out the huge short position in Gold, and that when it unwinds, gold will skyrocket. They SAY this, making no bones about it. Everyone says it, and it is quite true. That is how markets work. Prices are pressured lower by Selling, and pressured higher by Buying. Where's the conspiracy? Wouldn't we expect to see low prices at the end of the road of many years of Gold short-selling in all forms (outright, leasing, forward hedging, etc)? We are at the end of the road. Or are we? Manias know no bounds. Just as exuberant investors chase the DOW ever higher in hopes of a greater fool to buy them out, surely exuberant Gold-shorters have equally lost touch with reality. These situations do not go on forever. The savvy investor sees them for what they are and capitalizes. Gold is very cheap, and one is well-served by acquiring Gold.

To buy mining stocks is to gamble on the Company's ability to weather this storm of unpredictable duration. It is NOT the same as buying Gold.
Two years ago Alan Greenspan created quite a stir when he publicly commented that the market investors seemed "irrationally exuberant." And yet here we are, higher still, two years later. Could Gold go lower? Of course it could. But it becomes ever harder for the sellers to outnumber the buyers at this price range and under the current bleak world scenario. Considerably more downside direction is very, very hard to imagine.

OK, so if we are all clear that tremendous historical short-selling has brought Gold's price to its present lows, and that the unwinding of the shorts will have the opposite effect, albeit in a dramatic fashion, wherein lies the conspiracy? Where's the manipulation? Aren't these all lawful market operations?
Now, if GATA were instead claiming that the eventual unwinding of the short position would drive the price still lower, THEN you'd have yourself a "manipulation" to rightfully investigate. Which is it?

Cheap Gold benefits all those who want an exit strategy from the dollar (or any other fiat currency). My impression is that GATA is an avenue for disgruntled mining stock holders (YES, even I have more mining stock than I care to admit...down 90%!). But until you can show me that mines haven't contributed to this situation through forward sales of their own, the argument is going to fall upon deaf ears. Could my mining companies go bankrupt? Of course! But let's hope the forward price they've locked in is enough to get them though this trough...after all, isn't that why they sold early, and sold often, along with everyone else in a self-fulfilling nightmare? --aggravated, of course, by speculators and hedge funds who recognized the trend and said, "Me, too!!"

I've said before, and maybe I'm wrong, but I believe that MOST of the USAGOLD knights are here because we recognize Gold as the natural and safe alternative to the dollar. We do whatever we can to earn dollars, and protect those earnings through an exchange for Gold. It takes time to earn money, and during that time we need to live in the real world. What good would it do to hope that the dollar crashes and burns tomorrow? That much sooner we would be forced to become Gold spenders rather than Gold savers. That day will arrive, but why hope for it? Hope instead for monetary reform that will do away with the present ills of the system and return as gracefully as possible to hard money, uninflateable by fractional reserve lending. Acquiring Gold now will serve you quite well on that day, too.

To profit on mining stock amounts to little more than "getting a buck," a buck that won't buy you as much Gold as you could have gotten in the current era of "no mining profits." So why not continue to earn dollars elsewhere with which to enjoy the favorable exchange rate for Gold that we have today? To wish for higher Gold prices in order to earn a buck on mining stock is pretty-much self defeating. You'll need the Gold someday, not the buck.

So what is it, market forces or manipulation? It will end on its own someday, and you won't like it when it does. Having Gold will make it easier. ---Aristotle

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 16:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4131)

Links......

Knights and Ladies:

We now have direct links! Is that what they are called? And its ready to go. When you go to the Posting Page, you will see the "Link" box. Please take a moment to read the instructions.

Thanks, Jeff. You've done it again. The Castle Tinkerer is truly a worker of wonders. Now we have a new, finely honed weapon to use in our quest of the golden grail of truth.............

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 16:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4132)

I have to try the new links thingy...

**GTE Advises Bank Customers to Withdraw Money before 2000**
http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=804

"spokesman for the California Bankers Association, called the advice 'irresponsible and ignorant.� He said banks have been working since 1996 to fix the Y2K problem"

Oh yeah? Well what about these people that have been working their WHOLE LIVES to earn that money in the first place? Sheeeeeeeeesh! ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 16:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4133)

GTE Advises Bank Customers to Withdraw Money before 2000

http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=804Oops, I needed to 'Refresh' my Post page...the link box wasn't there in the cache version.

Aristotle

(04/02/1999; 16:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4134)

Cool!

We're in the "Big Time" now, boys!

Gold...Gold...more Gold!

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 17:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4135)

Aristotle.....

You make an excellent point. We very rarely get complaints about the price of gold remaining in this range from actual gold buyers. They spend most of the time talking about the Five Horsemen with us and wanting to know the best acquisition strategy and what their product choices are. What's even more interesting is the level of repeat business we are getting now and have had for years despite the nearly frozen price. Your analysis is spot on.

We've also had the occasional tragic stories of investors who overcommitted in either the gold stock market or options and futures and lost a bundle. By the way, you can bet there is a Fifth Horseman for real and he isn't of my making; he is the choice of some of the more astute investors who bring up this new visage when they call.

By the way, I don't know if I ever said this to you, but I appreciate your consistent presence here. You are truly a well-studied and logical knight as your name would indicate.

Richard, Oregon

(04/02/1999; 19:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4136)

MK - Questions Please

I've enjoyed your comparison study very much (stocks vs stock/gold). I know I've read it before today, maybe in ABCs or News & Views. Since your study was done before the current twenty year slump in gold's price and the most recent conspiracy theory, have you ever thought of picking-up where you left off (in time)? The market bubble would truly change the picture but we all know that picture is about to take a big hit all side of the head. I, for one, would encourage you to continue to pursue the truth! I appreciate your determination and honesty. Thank you for this forum. Richard

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 20:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4137)

Richard...

To do that study, I was looking for anything that would be remotely comparable to our own time. The primary concern was finding a period when the stock market corrected radically enough for that event to have significance in the present. I picked the 1970s because (1) that was the last significant stock market correction, and, (2) in monetary/economic terms the circumstances were roughly comparable to today's. I could have gone back to the 1920's but to me that period carried a deflationary bias while today's carries one that is inflationary, or disinflationary depending upon how you prefer to define these phenomena. So I thought the 1970s a better comparison. It is not so much important to us, as gold investors, to know "when" a paradigm shift will occur, but "what happens" once the paradigm shift does occur. That will tell us how to allocate our assets. I do not think today's disinflationary, or inflationary depression, tilt is much different from what happened in the 1970s except in degree and the length of time required for the cylce to resolve itself. Once you have acquired the ability to manipulate the economy through money supply and interest rates, you can sometimes prolong a cycle timewise to such a degree that observers forget that the economy is even cyclical. Are we not in such times now? The fact of the matter is that all cycles resolve themselves at some point. There really is no new paradigm. With respect to the analysis presented in "The Golden Constant", the point is that when the cylce resolves itself it will likely resolve itself in the very same way it did in the 1970s. The historic parallels are numerous, and I won't go into them now. I will just say that, in my view, we can learn much from what was a successful approach in the various Asian contagion nations for private investors, and what was not. We can also learn a great deal from what was a successful strategy in the 1970s. There is little doubt that those who diversified with gold and waited for the cycle to assert itself were very successful from an asset preservation point of view. Those who tried to "play the game" watched with futility as their assets disappeared. The various graphs we have published of gold priced in the Asian Contagion currencies is proof of the pudding.

The Stranger

(04/02/1999; 20:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4138)

YGM

Perhaps "total long" means what it says, and "net long" means longs minus shorts. I have never traded a commodity future, but I think those who do are sometimes long in one month and short in another. This is what I believe is called a "spread", and, while it greatly reduces how much the investor can make, it also greatly reduces his risk. I am really not qualified to answer your question, but I didn't want you to think you were being ignored.

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 20:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4139)

Richard...

I might add two final sentences to that analysis.

"The gold strategy was a remarkably simple approach to protecting one's assets -- a no brainer in the popular parlance. It was also remarkably effective.

The Stranger

(04/02/1999; 20:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4140)

M.K.

Talk about historic parallels too numerous to mention, we were just reminded of another one today. The Labor Dept. announced that unemployment is now 4.2%, "the lowest since 1970". 1970 is, coincidentally, the last time we had money expansion as great as it has been over the last year or so. Interestingly, the peak gold price was still TEN YEARS and over 2000% away.

USAGOLD

(04/02/1999; 20:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4141)

I can see, Stranger,

that we are on the same page, or better put, our pencil rests on the same point on all those graphs. Thank you for that input.

All the great thinkers on cycle theory -- Schumpeter, Kondratieff, Elliott -- failed to work "time" into their models with any degree of success. Prechter tried to bring Fibonacci into the analysis for timing purposes and unfortunately it has not worked (as much as I wish it would have. It is so neat, clean and elegant. And by the way, I still think that Prechter is close to something important.) Dealing with Time/Timing will be the next big breakthrough in economic theory. We need an Einstein! But for us mere mortals attempting to apply all this theory to our portfolios, one thing rings loud and true -- a medium to long term strategy that incorporates "diversification" in the portfolio overcomes much in the way of failure in economic theory with respect to timing. In my view, and I learned this from quite of few successful old-timers, simply diversify and let the times take their course. Those who try to time/trade these cycles can produce much good conversation, but they usually produce little more in terms of success beyond what a simple diversification would have achieved (and with a lot less loss in the number of brain cells).

NORTH OF 49

(04/02/1999; 21:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4142)

####MGC 286.50### Fifth Horseman (see below)

After reading all the excellent posts here indicating the various choices of the feared Fifth Horseman, my first reaction was "aawwhh maaaaannn--all the good ones are gone!"
Then, after tossing a few ideas around in my noggin for a while, the thought occured to me---"what would happen if one threw all these bright perceptions into a blender and mushed'em up geal good?" After a good whirling, I slid my concoction under the glass to see what had surfaced--not a pretty sight!! To my amazement, after the deed was done, it wasn't an event that I spied--nor a person, or anything specific for that matter. I had created a catalyst! A catalyst that attacked normal human behaviour (if such a thing exists), rendering it a shell of its' former self.

I saw people, who would normally stand patiently waiting their turn at an ATM, pushing and shoving--wrestling each other to the ground to get to these monetary idols.

I saw people usually of positive nature, hating their brothers and neighbours for the store of food that they had the foresight to accumulate.

I saw rational people driving their cars over sidwalks and curbs, sending pedestians fleeing for their lives because the traffic lights were all flashing red.

I saw honest, law abiding people turn to petty crime because the cash they were able to scrounge up would no longer buy them the goods needed to survive.

I saw people in transit, searching for work because their jobs were lost to a outsource program.

I saw people breaking down the doors of their brokerage firms, with worthless paper in their hands and murder in their hearts.

What I saw made me stop looking!!

But now, we must classify this horrific specimen---this Fifth Horseman. I choose to name it ***IRRATIONAL ADVERSE HUMAN REACTION***, an entity I dare say even the other Four Amigos pussyfoot around.

No49

turbohawg

(04/02/1999; 22:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4143)

Peter and Richard, OR ... and $200 gold

Regarding yesterday's posts, you guys are making me miss your part of the country ... I've travelled it a lot over the last several years, particularly the Willamette Valley area of Albany and Newberg, and on up to Longview, WA. Since it's always been spring or fall when I was out there, the weather was usually great ... it's beautiful country ... hiked Mt St Helens on one of those trips. When in Albany, it's a must to stop in the Buzzsaw, a restaurant sitting right alongside the Willamette River, and have the blackened salmon with their excellent spinach salad and, of course, a Widmer Heffeweizen or Thomas Kemper Weizenberry. Man, I'm making myself hungry. Bigfoot has, so far, eluded me ... maybe a few more Heffeweizens would help.

As for $200 gold, there would be no complaints from this corner. The foundation would be laid for the Bank of Turbohawg ... make that the Bank of TurbohAug.

The Stranger

(04/02/1999; 23:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4144)

M.K.and Diversification

Michael, perhaps like you, I am old enough to remember when having 5% of one's investment portfolio in gold was conventional wisdom. What a difference that practice would make were it commonly applied today.

Unfortunately, or fortunately as the case may be, I am not built to diversify. Having done the work of figuring where I think the elephants are, I have, through long practice, shown a propensity to go after those elephants; this to the near exclusion of all the other animals in the jungle. While this approach has, at times, kept me awake nights, it suits my personality to a T.

As to the question of undue risk, I believe that an investor can invest in one thing at a time and still achieve more diversity over his lifetime than one who simply buys ten things and holds them forever. What he loses on one outing, he can make up on the next. He also avoids the frustration of ever having his gain in one position simultaneously erased by loss in another.

This may make me sound like a novice investor who's got more testosterone than money, though, of course, I am not. Nonetheless, I think you are right to recommend that the average Joe, whoever he is, diversify. Right now, Japanese stocks and GOLD strike me as being among the most underappreciated assets in the world. Both probably deserve consideration by anyone seeking ballance. But, as for me, I own them to the exclusion of everything else, and I'd be miserable doing it any other way.

onlychild

(04/03/1999; 01:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4145)

######CG9J $282.50 ######

Well I noticed that Gandalf got the fifth horseman up on his mount faster that a shotgun start at a bass tournament. I am inclined to agree. However, that would'nt win me much now would it? Actually I think that inflation will be the effect of an obvious underlying cause ****the price of oil**** Everything from cradle to grave has the price of oil built into it somewhere. Even the thing we hold so dear: Gold. If the Earth is to reliquish it's tenacious hold on our beloved ore, much energy is required. I can't think of one item that I own that would be valued the same regardless of oil prices. Of course not all things move in the same direction as oil: In the face of $2.00 gasoline my Suzuki 1000 would be worth considerably more, while my '78 DeVille 425ci would fetch a bit less. But generally speaking the price of anything new, whether a loaf of bread or an office building, will rise lock step with oil. Maybe we're all chasing the wrong natural resource. What would it be like if Aristotle was an oil bug? Oil, get you some. (just kidding)

YGM

(04/03/1999; 03:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4146)

###CG9J=$290.25### *******5 th Horseman*******

The Fifth Horseman of the Appocolypse is drawn by two
horses over the land. He's the Beasts Deciple driving the
chariot of Greed and Death. His horses move slowly out of
the mists of the netherworld, his face hidden from all as he
spreads seeds from his Masters endless source. Over the
Changers of Money and Merchants of War he whispers to
each. For eons he's traveled long and far, but the end is
in sight. Mankind has been lulled by complacency and the
blindness of the times. His lips twist grinning, as he savours
his thoughts. Few men will be wary, many more not
prepared.
The Master is pleased and hastens him forth. This New
Millenium man calls 2000, is his goal to reign!
Will Mankind, he wonders, soon worship the Mark of The
Beast?

(04/03/1999; 06:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4147)

Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - great post! The market is the market.

You wrote;

'Here is my primary point of confusion. GATA correctly points out the huge short position in Gold, and
that when it unwinds, gold will skyrocket. They SAY this, making no bones about it. Everyone says it,
and it is quite true. That is how markets work. Prices are pressured lower by Selling, and pressured
higher by Buying. Where's the conspiracy? Wouldn't we expect to see low prices at the end of the
road of many years of Gold short-selling in all forms (outright, leasing, forward hedging, etc)? We are
at the end of the road. Or are we? Manias know no bounds. Just as exuberant investors chase the
DOW ever higher in hopes of a greater fool to buy them out, surely exuberant Gold-shorters have
equally lost touch with reality. These situations do not go on forever. The savvy investor sees them for
what they are and capitalizes. Gold is very cheap, and one is well-served by acquiring Gold.'

Yes, this looks like a buying opportunity to me. History tells us this will not go on indefinitely. This would seem a wise strategy. It is hard to say whether we are near the end. I am sure however that this mania will not go on forever. No 'new era' stuff for me. Thanks Aristotle.

ET

The Stranger

(04/03/1999; 07:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4148)

###### $279 ######

Good Luck, Everybody!

(04/03/1999; 07:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4149)

North of 49

Hey North of 49 - I hope everything is going well for you. I enjoyed your post.

You wrote in part;

'But now, we must classify this horrific specimen---this Fifth Horseman. I choose to name it
***IRRATIONAL ADVERSE HUMAN REACTION***, an entity I dare say even the other Four
Amigos pussyfoot around.'

This is what I see also. However, I'm not sure it is 'irrational'. Sounds rational to me. Aristotle pointed out that people are simply ignorant of what goes on around them. When they learn the truth they will act in accordance with their beliefs. Going down to fetch their money sounds rational to me even if they don't understand what happened to the money itself. Mises wrote in 'Human Action' that all actions are rational to the person committing the action regardless of the truth of the premises they act upon.

You sure see a lot for a guy out in the middle of 'nowhere'.

ET

USAGOLD

(04/03/1999; 07:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4150)

All: Contest......Please see clarification below

I would like to remind all poster plus all the newbies pulling up a chair to this table round, that we are having a contest this weekend to identify the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse -- the other four being Y2K, the Asian Contagion, Euro Introduction and the Overvalued Stock Market. To win the gold you must not only correctly identify this menacing apparition on that distant hill beyond the castle walls, you must tell us why in more than 30 words.

The Knights and Ladies are also invited to post the closing price for the COMEX Gold June on Friday April 9. This is also good for the gold.

For details I direct you to the discussion over the past two days. There are posts from USAGOLD about the contest.

**********I want to make sure that there is not a misconception about the contest. Just because somebody has already chosen the same Fifth Horseman that you have, doesn't mean you can't choose it too. The contest winner will not only identify this Fifth Horseman, he/she will make a convincing and eloquent enough post to catch the attention of our esteemed panel of judges.

Good luck, my fellow knights and ladies. Let the Contest proceed...........

North of '49: That was a strong post and a keeper as far as I'm concerned, but if you were under the impression that you couldn't pick something because another poster already had, go ahead and post again. It's your call.

David Linkley

(04/03/1999; 08:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4151)

Iraq Says Western Planes Bombed Key Oil Facility

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990403/ts/oil_iraq_2.html BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Western warplanes Friday bombed and destroyed a key control center of the main pumping station used by Iraq to export oil..............�

Thanks for the links, Michael. This anchorman is here to stay.

David Linkley

(04/03/1999; 08:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4152)

RUPERT Murdoch's News Corporation today delivered a stark warning on the potential impact of the millennium bug

http://finance.uk.yahoo.com/news/19990402/businessday/busstory130027.html"At risk operations include satellite transmission and communications systems, which would hit its television networks and cable services........."

(04/03/1999; 08:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4153)

War as the fifth horseman

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_keyes/19990402_xcake_wars_own_p.shtml
'War is not the answer ...' - Marvin Gaye

But is likely the reason for more gold buying. I won't attempt to add anything to Alan Keyes' column; it says it all.

ET

Column follows;

War's own peculiar logic

Despite frequent assurances from American
officials that the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia
would be "limited," it is difficult to see how in any
respect the effort has been conceived or executed
with a serious view to keeping it "limited." It is not
even clear that Bill Clinton is making any pretence
that the war is to be limited. While we are
distracted for a time with claims that nothing
beyond air war is contemplated, everything
actually happening on the ground is pushing us
toward a moment of decision to escalate this
action. We will choose between sitting by and
watching as, according to our government, tens of
thousands of people are killed, or sending in
ground forces.

Which option do you think our leaders have in
mind? It is not difficult to guess, particularly now
that we know that it was our president's decision
to ignore the advice he was being given by his
own intelligence people that led to this moment of
dangerous choice.

So let's assume that events continue to unfold as
appears they are, and NATO deploys several
hundred thousand troops on the ground in
Europe in a war that goes on for quite a while.
Even if we are successful, we will end up with a
protectorate in the heart of Europe staffed by U.S.
troops. I don't think we yet realize the implications
of this for our whole way of life. Such a
development will mean that we are moving away
from the republican period into an imperial period
of American history.

Taking on such responsibilities will lead to a
strengthening of the executive, damage to the
underpinnings of our representative government,
and an illegitimate empowerment of our national
leaders to mobilize the forces of patriotic
chauvinism against anyone who disagrees with
what they are doing. If you doubt the force of
these latter passions, just look at Mr. Milosevic's
popularity ratings since we started our bombing.
We should not doubt the usefulness to statists at
home of these standard left-wing tactics -- to
advance their domestic agenda by treating
opponents of that agenda as enemies who serve
the purposes of those they are fighting in military
adventures abroad. President Clinton is
manufacturing the precedents and foundations of
such a situation right now, and I don't believe for
a moment that its domestic implications are lost on
him.

War and the emotions it elicits have a logic of their
own. In the course of human affairs, that logic has
often gotten beyond the control of the people who
have unleashed it. When you let slip the dogs of
war, they don't necessary obey you when you try
to call them back. Incidents occur that inflame and
escalate the passions on all sides, until finally the
emotion itself becomes the reason for prosecuting
the war.

Our intervention supposedly is to stop a conflict
that has, and has had for centuries, precisely those
characteristics. In the Balkans, the history of war
itself -- the emotions involved and the killings that
have occurred, the mass and forced emigrations --
have become themselves the cause of the
continuing conflict. No people is immune to this
process, and we won't be either if we permit
ourselves to become deeply involved in it.

There are some simple truths that we should
always remember. War is sometimes a harsh
necessity in human affairs. For that reason, we
had better study it hard, digesting both its realities
once undertaken, and the realities that lead to it.
Anyone who deals with government affairs had
better not play games with war, but be as deadly
serious about it as he can be. For it is deadly
serious business. That means going beyond
wishful thinking that everyone should get along.
Such wishes, however nice, are no substitute for
policy. Those who really care about humanity will
think very hard about war. They will reflect
deeply upon the great respect the statesman must
give to war, understanding how dangerous and
dreadful it is when necessary.

A soldier learns over time to have a similar respect
for his weapon, as something that may save his
life, or destroy him if he doesn't understand, or
respect, or use it properly. The statesman must
have that same sense of ambiguous respect for
war; Bill Clinton doesn't have this respect, and
many of our other policy-makers appear not to
have it either. But we shouldn't draw the sword
unless we mean to use it, and use it well. We can
never afford to draw it carelessly and stupidly.

We shouldn't have drawn it this time, because this
Administration hadn't thought through the
consequences, and now confronted with them, is
clearly not prepared to accept those consequences.
But having embarked on this course, and having
gotten in over our head, we have two choices: We
can follow the reckless advice of Senator Lugar
and go for broke. Or we can decide before it goes
too far that we won't extend this ill-conceived
military adventure any further. We are still at a
point where that wise reconsideration is possible,
but we won't be for long.

This is why it is so important that we let our
representatives know that we insist that they be
thoughtful and responsible in the days ahead.
Trying to restrain the frenzy that Clinton is hoping
to whip up over this war is essential to ensure that
we think it through clearly and don't get
stampeded into tragic errors. These are matters of
life and death. The awful cost of our willingness to
tolerate incompetence and misjudgment will be
the awesome destruction of human life. We are
citizens. And insofar as we can influence these
matters, we are morally responsible to do the best
job we can to inform ourselves and bring to bear a
responsible judgment, so that our representatives
hear from us in a way that moves things in the
right direction.

The profound implications of the decisions being
made right now should be kept in mind by those
who are moving to defend the President's so-called
policy. It should be clear to anyone that the
situation in the Balkans is extremely complex.
Reducing it to an emotional morality play of a
mini-Hitler against the world is a grave disservice.
The unreasoned support of Senator Lugar and
other Republicans for this simplistic account will
contribute to the willingness of Clinton and others
to commit us further to a policy that has
incalculably serious consequences.

It is true that we must have a component in our
foreign policy that aims at building and promoting
respect for human rights. We cannot just sit on
our hands while human life and human dignity
are being destroyed around the world. We must
do our best to effectively improve those situations.

But this objective must be pursued with the
greatest care, and with the greatest amount of
forethought we can muster. Otherwise we risk
re-introducing into the world elements that can be
severely dangerous to any hopes for real peace. If
we are seeking a world in which pretexts for
aggression are largely contained, then we must
aim at a world in which we do not allow one
country's assertions of human rights abuses to
become justification for aggression against
another, unless abuses are on such a scale that the
assessment is inescapably of crimes against
humanity itself.

What NATO today says about Yugoslavia, and
what Muslim states might say tomorrow about
Israel, or what others might say about strife within
the Sudan or Sri Lanka, are not things we can
control. Peoples and governments are going to
express opinions, often contradictory, about the
actions of these governments. If we give these
governments permission to back their opinions
with military force, then those regions of historical
dispute will suffer the predations of any adversary
or faction with military might. We will, in fact,
have returned the international arena to the
principle of "might makes right" precisely because
of an incompetent pursuit of the right.

Because of this, a certain degree of formalism in
our international affairs is important. We must
protect the precedent that borders will not be
violated or aggression committed simply because
the power exists to do so. Overwhelming reason
must be offered if these forms are to be violated --
and NATO has not offered such reason, at least
not according to a safe standard of what the
threshold ought to be for justifying military
aggression.

Real crimes and real horrors have been committed
in Yugoslavia. But this statement could be made
about both sides in this conflict, and about the
violence that has characterized the region as a
whole. Further, the situation fits the classic
definition of a civil war. In this it is unlike previous
conflicts in the region, when the various sides
were being used as chess pieces by larger powers
to play out their rivalry and even to create strife
that might be to their advantage. Until NATO
took the extremely ill-advised step of bombing
Yugoslavia, we were dealing with the challenge of
containing the effects of a true civil conflict so
those effects wouldn't jostle neighboring regions.
But the conflict did not make it necessary that
those effects would magnify into a genuine,
region-wide conflict.

Now, of course, as a result of the NATO bombing,
the cascade has begun. The flood of refugees is
introducing destabilizing influences into
neighboring countries. The war itself is producing
new grievances between the combatants -- such as
the question of the treatment of the three
American prisoners. I believe that the situation is
now likely to escalate into a region-wide conflict.

We are talking, now, about war in Europe. How
many of us thought we would be thinking about
that any time soon? With the Cold War over, we
have been tempted to think that foreign policy
would reduce to the management of our
international economic pursuits. Instead, we are
faced with war in Europe and the possible
mobilization of Russian military power.

Our political leaders are assuming, apparently,
that this will remain just be a conflict between
NATO and Yugoslavia, and that no other
elements will involve themselves. But that assumes
that all the variables, including the political
situation in Russia and other parts of the former
Soviet Union, stay the same. This seems a very
unwise assumption to me. They had better be
right. Because if they are wrong, then we are
backing into the very situation that for several
decades we worked so hard to avoid by following
policies both firm and tempered.

Our leaders are basing their assumption entirely
on the notion that the Russians are weak and
dependent on our money, and that, despite some
bluster to save face, nothing serious will come of it.
They believe the Russians are in no position
actually to respond. I think that the Yeltsin
government is, in fact, in that position. But I
wonder why our leaders assume that the Yeltsin
government can't simply be overthrown in a wave
of Russian pride and resentment once it is stirred
up enough by our pummeling of one of Russia's
traditional "little brothers" in Yugoslavia.
Napoleon learned, to his grief, that such old
Russian patriotism is something to be reckoned
with, once it starts to move.

In order to survive the years since the Second
World War, we have had to maintain a delicate
balance between toughness on the one hand, and
awareness, on the other hand, of the enormous
stakes involved every time we draw the sword.
The current Clinton policy is a combination of
recklessness and incompetence that is the most
dangerous combination imaginable. If its
incoherent underlying assumptions do lead to
major miscalculation, it could tumble us into
World War III.

Our current leaders are deluding themselves with
the thought that those risks are no longer there,
that we no longer live in a world where a nuclear
exchange with the Russian bear could be right
around the corner. But those arsenals are still
there. And even if in a shambles, Russian military
might is sufficient to require a whole lot of war
before we would be able to put it down.

We have allowed the end of the Cold War to make
us reckless. And this is exactly the kind of danger
one would have expected from those like Bill
Clinton who have been under the idiotic delusion
that the end of the Cold War meant that we no
longer had to worry about military threats. Isn't it
interesting that the very people who, several years
ago, were talking about how to spend the "defense
dividend" are now mobilizing our military power
for a war in Europe that has the most awful
implications?

One of the dangers of war is indeed that it
develops its own emotional logic. The reactions
that people have to the things that happen in war
-- such as large-scale killing -- become themselves
the reasons for waging war. This logic is one of the
reasons that wars are so terrible and are so
difficult to end. When we seek to end a
conflagration that has been burning for a long
time, fueled by that very runaway logic of war, we
had best take special care not to become prey to it
ourselves.

But the Clinton Administration now is clearly
trying to whip up an emotional frenzy so that the
move to ground troops will be accepted. I believe
that they do plan to put in ground troops, and
that Bill Clinton is lying about that. Meanwhile,
the propaganda media is being maneuvered in the
hope of generating passions that will support
what the Administration has probably viewed all
along to be the inevitable use of ground forces. Bill
Clinton is a wonderful front man for this policy,
because he will lie with no shame at all about this
as about everything.

The inadequacies of Bill Clinton, of course,
contribute to the danger of the moment. The high
duties of the commander in chief don't fit well
with the low character of the man we have put in
that office. He may soon be leading us through a
major confrontation with the Russians, among
other enormous challenges. These are his duty
because of the office he so ignobly holds. These
challenges will occur in the immediate wake of
months and months in which we were told that
the only thing that mattered was that Bill Clinton
was doing such a "great job" in his role at home.
We should have been focusing on the implications
of Bill Clinton's oath-breaking, lack of integrity,
and disrespect for the Constitution, within the
context of his role. We didn't pay attention to
those questions at the time, and now we are going
to pay the price.

A perverse poetic justice is unfolding. We have
permitted the moral balkanization of America at
the hands of Bill Clinton and his friends, and now
we are finding ourselves drawn into the strange
project of trying to Americanize the Balkans by
force. In a moral sense, Clintonism balkanizes
America, depriving us of our common foundation
of moral truth, principle and judgment, and
turning us into squabbling, competing groups.
And now, using military force, the Clintonites are
attempting the equally irrational task of
homogenizing a factionalized Europe.

We all need to be praying hard that these leaders,
including those in Russia, will have the wisdom to
resist being carried away by the terrible logic that
could be unleashed by these events. I am praying
every morning and every night that God will
somehow, in His wisdom, keep us from this brink.
Because men are playing with things that are
much larger than they are, and they are doing so
with a degree of recklessness that it puts the whole
world in great danger.

SteveH

(04/03/1999; 08:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4154)

Manipulation?

Aristotle's points are well made, to wit: the current market in gold may not be manipulation but market forces playing themselves out.

Manipulation seems to be that nagging feeling you get when you can't see all that is taking place but what you do see seems to be coming from under the corner of the rug. Is there more dirt where that came from? So lifting the carpet back will expose the dirt, but knowing where the carpet edge begins seems to be the problem. Here are the dustballs, dirt, and dredge fodder that has surfaced that points to manipulation but doesn't or can't of itself prove manipulation:

Bre-X properties in Indonesia report the world's largest non-producing gold deposit in history. Turns out to be a virtually complete fraud due to fraudulent lab reports. Property is eventually exposed and kills the gold mining exploration funding business for several years. Juniors and penny's tumble in some cases 90 or more percent. This is a large negative impact on gold's already tarnished image from being in an 18-year bear market.

Consistent and high correlation of negative gold news stories alledging the sale of large stockpiles of gold every time gold tries to rally beyond $314 then $297. No real evidence of major gold sales actually proven.

Overseas trading in gold seems to offset the New York trading where it becomes obvious and curious but not proveable that gold is bolster overseas but beatup in New York.

Certain gold tradng houses seem to be engaged in heavy shorting operations at the same time Negative news stories are released. Same houses seem to be recognized as having ex-employees placed in key government positions that would appear to favor these firms. Same firms appear to be part owners of the Fed, which recently orchestrated a bail-out of LTCM, which was a hedge fund that was allegedly short 400 or so tons of gold.

COMEX policy to lower margin requirements in the case of gold short sales. This change in policy made it easier and less financially stressful to short gold. Here is a case of a rule change favoring shorting activity.

Certain heads of state recently made public statements encouraging the sale of gold from the IMF reserves to help poor countries. This was at a time of a recent gold high of $296. It took gold approximately 11 days to reach $296 and less than three days to hit the low $280's after these comments.

Gold leasing (or as I prefer "gold [f]leasing) practices of certain Central Banks (although knowing which ones seems impervious to only the most priveledged eyes) to lend gold to bullion banks or mines who then sell the gold into the market appears to be a rigged game where only those who can figure out the rules win. The lending rates used to lend gold allows a small profit and little apparent risk for those who have a ticket to play. The apparent manipulation seems to be hidden in the adjustment of rates that make it profitable. It seems these move daily to keep the game going. Gold up, change the rates, Gold down change them again. This one phenomenum seems to be the major factor in the lease of gold trade. But I can't figure out if the rates follow the market or make the market. Obviously if they make the market then manipulation is proven. So undertanding who and why the rates are set would highlight the game or so it would seem. Yet why is this so unclear? Could it be the international nature of gold trading not making gold trading an easy market to regulate?

A common thread appears to run through each of these factors. That thread is simply that it appears to happen consistently in an orchestrated and predictable manner and it only seems to benefit those who have a ticket to the game or who short the market. If manipulation were obvious then obviously it would be there for all to see, but it seems that subtle and all-to-easy rules, news, and rates favor the short end of the market. Yet it has raised enough eyebrows that the Dick Tracies (GATA) of goldum want to unearth and expose what underlies this mysterious gold market place. So Aristotle, yes it may be just the market action at play but from my point of view, the negative market action is being helped along by some awfully obvious and convenient press, exhange, and government allies. The question is do these make the market (manipulation) or does the market make these (no manipulation)?

David Linkley

(04/03/1999; 08:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4155)

Dollar's Rally Against Yen Expected to Be Capped as Money Flows Into Japan

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topsum.html?s=012b2087dcad976106fdbc8a37cea047"After months of shunning Japanese investments, global portfolio managers are easing back in....."

USAGOLD

(04/03/1999; 09:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4156)

Steve H...

Your strong analysis reflects much time spent organizing the circumstantial evidence. Unfortunately, we might not have a smoking gun until a crash occurs and we see who stands there holding a handful of useless paper chits. I think some of the problem here is in defining "manipulation" and "conspiracy" -- you can have one without the other and what appears to be a conspiracy could ultimately turn out to be nothing more than individual groups pursuing what they see as their own own vital interest independent of each other. Aristotle's point, if I am reading him correctly, is that what happens if there is a sudden change in heart and this herd begins to run in the other direction? A conspiracy implies that that has little or no chance of happening because of the complicity of the institutions involved including the Federal Reserve and the government. A manipulation implies that it could happen because there is no such complicity and other players, perhaps at another address on Wall Street, see opportunity and weakness that can be exploited. If so, it wouldn't be the first or the last time that happened on Wall Street. Don't forget that the Sumitomo/Copper affair turned out to be a conspiracy of one when it was revealed. Your analysis offers much to be considered at this table round. Thank you for posting it.

David Linkley

(04/03/1999; 09:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4157)

POLL-Dollarization no easy fix for Latin America

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990329/me.html ``Dollarization would eliminate the possibility of governments cheating the people by printing money,'' said Argentine economist Marcelo Romano.

Linkley comment: Not that the U.S. Federal Reserve would ever resort to the printing press or anything. Did they find this guy under a cabbage leaf or something?

Gandalf the White

(04/03/1999; 10:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4158)

surfing gems

Friday April 2, 5:00 PM
Assets sale planed as BP Amoco and Arco merge
OIL giant BP Amoco has finalised terms of its .8 billion (�16 billion) takeover of Atlantic Richfield, a move that will catapult the group into number one position in the global oil and gas production league. BP Chief executive Sir John Browne said some billion of assets had been earmarked for disposal after the deal, largely in Alaska.
With a market capitalisation of billion, the enlarged group - which is to retain the BP Amoco name - will be second only in value to the merged US giant Exxon-Mobil. Royal Dutch Shell will be number three. In an all-share transaction, BP is offering 0.82 of its American depositary
shares for each Arco share. Based on BP's closing price of .44 on 26 March - before news of the talks leaked - the terms represent a premium of 26% for Arco shares.
Shares in both have soared since news of the deal and the terms represent a 13% premium on last night's closing price. BP slipped 201/2p to 1028p today. The Arco deal, which will result in some 2000 job losses, is the latest move in the wave of consolidation sweeping the industry.
Coming just months after BP's merger with Amoco, it is seen as a coup for Browne. He said the deal was "a compelling strategic fit of quality assets" and predicted cost savings of billion by 2001. These come on top of million of savings already targeted by Arco. "For BP Amoco, the strategic rationale for this deal is the immense potential it offers for future growth," said Browne. In Britain, Arco will add gas and oil production equivalent of more than 100,000
barrels a day from fields that are complementary to BP's North Sea operations. Browne revealed the first approach for the deal had come from Arco, in January. In a joint statement, Browne and Arco chairman Mike Bowlin said: "Against the background of uncertain oil prices and the increased competitive pressure across the sector, it is clear the uniquely complementary operations of our companies can compete more effectively together than apart." The speed with which BP moved to integrate Amoco, where there have already been sweeping cutbacks, is seen as a blueprint for Arco. The lion's share of the cost savings - million - will come from exploration and production.There will be million from refining and marketing and million axed from corporate costs. Most of the 2000 jobs will be cut in the US but around 200 will go in Britain. (This is London Business Day)
*****Does anyone remember the Richfield Oil Co. ? Do you hear ANYONE saying anything about this takeover ? Is this the way that the US of A becomes a little bit "smaller" ?
Makes one think a little more, Ay ?
<;-)

NORTH OF 49

(04/03/1999; 11:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4159)

Rational--Irrational--Ying-Yang!!??

ET, your comments on my choice of the Fifth Horseman are probably the esence of what I love about this Forum--alternative viewpoints. From my perspective, I am interpreting the (assumed) actions of the masses as acts of irrationality. Not because I am all-knowing, but because of a wider understanding I have acquired through a: my job, and b: this Forum. On the other hand, your point is quite valid, as viewed through the eyes of Joe Public.

"You have my money which I feel is in jeopardy--I want it and I want it now!!"

"The traffic lights aren't working! I have to get across this traffic somehow--someway!"

"You have food--I don't. My problem is your fault."

Etc. etc. All very rational scenarios, in the eyes of the beholder. Not so rational in the eyes of the Patrolman standing off to the side.
Ones decisions and opinions are generally formed through the information presented to them. This information can be three dimensional as it were, and can be viewed quite differently depending on which toadstool one is sat upon.
I can recall a few years ago, being sent to a management course in Dubai, that was designed to inspire alternative thinking. Sort of a problem solving seminar. Of course, I have forgotten most of it, but one event sunk in, to be forever welded in my brain. The instructor presented us with an almost abstract black and white print. If you really concentrated on it, it became clear that if you used black as the background, and white to determine the subject, a cameo of a beautiful young lady appeared. On the other hand, if you used white as the background and black for the subject matter, a rather grotesque cameo of a witch-like character came to view. It was amazing to me that a full 25% of the attendees were unable to bring either one, or the other into focus. Very clever--wish I had kept it (ok--I so wish I could remember what I did with it).

MK, thankyou for the opportunity to have another go at unmasking the Fifth Horseman. I doubted very much at the time that I was "onto" him, but it was just something that I wanted to present to possibly stir up some "alternative thinking"--mission accomplished!

No49

turbohawg

(04/03/1999; 12:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4160)

Gandalf

In the AP version of the BP Amoco/Arco deal as printed in Friday's Houston Chronicle, there were some interesting comments attributed to Arco's Bowlin.

>In a February speech in Houston, Arco Chairman Mike Bowlin declared the "the last days of the age of oil" had begun.<

and ...

>In the February speech to a Houston gathering of oil industry leaders, Bowlin said the demand for oil would diminish in the next century as the demand for low-polluting energy grows.
"Nations of the world that are striving to modernize will make choices different from the ones we have made. They will have to. And even today's industrial powers will shift energy use patterns," he said.<

Makes one think a little more, indeed.

Richard, Oregon

(04/03/1999; 13:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4161)

Is This Correct??

I am unable to just left mouse button (lmb) directly on an internet address in a post and have my pc go to that site. I AM able to lmb and hold and drag the address to the MSE address window, then release, and have it go to the site. Is this the way it works for everyone else?

Richard, Oregon

(04/03/1999; 14:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4162)

Picture This Gold-Bugs!

The new King of the Ashantis, Nana Kweku Duah, has begun initiation rites in the central Ghanaian city of Kumasi. By tradition, the Queen Mother - an all-important figure in Ashanti matrilineal society - will introduce the King to the sacred place where the Golden Stool, or throne, is kept.
The Ashanti king's Golden Stool is formed from solid gold, mined from a part of Ghana which is still one of the world's richest gold-producing areas.
Ahhhhhh.........

Peter Asher

(04/03/1999; 15:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4163)

Richard

If I doble click with LMB directly on the new blue URL's I get the item.

I like your idea of a local Round Table salmon bake, call me,you can find me in the appropriate yellow page listing, or get the number from Michael.(The white pages will give you a dedicated Fax#)

David Linkley

(04/03/1999; 15:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4164)

6000 to 8000 NATO Troops Going to Albania

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/040499kosovo-rdp.html"We will not let you down," Prime Minister Tony Blair told the refugees in a British television interview today. "We will make sure that you are able to return to your homes, and live in your homes in peace," he said. "That is our promise to you and we will carry it out."

jls

(04/03/1999; 16:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4165)

*******The Fifth Horseman*******

We noticed the 5th horseman after the first 4 passed. We did not recognize him: neither his horse, his pennant, nor
his colors identified him. Knowing not whether he was friend nor foe we sent a messenger to him, asking him to come and speak with us. We watched him as the messenger departed and finally approached him. He had never galloped
his horse as had the first 4 horsemen, but proceeded at a casual, even relaxed, pace. If he carried any weapons we
could not see them. As our messenger approached, he stopped. They spoke briefly. Then both proceeded at the
same casual pace toward us and soon arrived. We had noted
that the unknown horseman in fact carried no weapons, but
appeared entirely devoid of care or concern, and while glancing at us smiled as a powerful warrior king might smile
at children at play.
The 5th horseman gave greeting, saying "Hail, O Great King
and proud knights. I am come at your summons. What will
you have of me?"
We answered, "We would know if you ride with the 4 horsemen who preceeded you and spread chaos and destruction
here? We would know your name and your purpose here as well. What answer have you?
The 5th horseman answered, "I will tell you full, all that
you have asked and more beside. When I have finished if you
yet have questions, ask that all may be reavealed.
He continued: "My name is Hubris. I am like a seed, lying quietly until fertilized by the attitudes of mankind.
Then I sprout and fulfill my destiny. It is my destiny to
awaken the first 4 horsemen and loosen them on their steeds
to fulfill their destinies...rampage, destruction, chaos, to
sow pain, regret, anguish, fear, poverty,...I could go on and on...but you understand.
I have 3 cousins...you need not see them as you see me...
you already know them. One is named Arrogance and he is generally overweening. Another is named Certitude, and frequently what he does is unwarranted. The last is named
Pride, she is very clever and appears as a mirror in which
you see in the best possible light whatever you want to see...greed appears as thrift...treachery appears as judicious self-interest...lying appears as truth newly attired...violence upon others is merely self-defense. Mankind loves this mirror. They spend a lot of time before
it just prior to being destroyed. That is why we have a
saying that Pride goeth before a fall. She is very clever.
Neither the 4 horsemen, nor my cousins, nor myself can
exist where prudence, humility, charity and faith in Him who
created not just this world but the entire Universe abide...
where these abide we cannot exist. We know this to be true,
but even so we do not worry about it overmuch...we have always existed somewhere...first I blossom, then the others.
I must now depart your company, stronger and more optimistic than before. We are nearing the destruction of
your hothouse kingdom and when its' destruction is complete
you will not find Hubris here anymore. I will have sprouted
elsewhere...the earth of mankind is very fertile."

Aristotle

(04/03/1999; 17:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4166)

Manipulation vs. the market

Thanks, SteveH, for your excellent summary of our current and past state of affairs with respect to the Gold market.

Before I go further, allow me to confess...there IS manipulation, and I would know; I am behind ALL of it--to drive the price ever lower in order to better facilitate my efforts to obtain as much Gold as possible over a span of time. But 'manipulation' is such an ugly word. Let's call it 'astute marketing' instead. Just as Madison Avenue uses its powers of persuasion to legally increase the demand and profitability for its clients' products, so too may marketing be used for the opposite effect. Prices aren't directly or illegally manipulated, but instead it is the mindset of the players involved that are influenced, or 'manipulated' if you will. I invite everyone to join with me in snapping up this cheap Gold during these last remaining days of my soon-to-expire marketing contract.

But seriously, the silver lining here--as the storm clouds darken the days of those precious few mining companies that didn't forward sell their production (bless them for their nobility)--is that Gold can be added to your pockets, month after month, at outstanding bargain prices. If the irrational selling mania continues (thanks to the temporary negative mindset of the market-makers falling victim to the aforementioned influence-marketing scheme) we may see yet further bargains in the offing. I have mentally written off my Gold mining stock as a bad investment. After all, it is not shares of a company that will matter in the years ahead, but ounces of Gold. My mistake was in equating the one with the other.

Steve, you've listed a very useful summary. Anyone looking at this big picture could see the same conclusion, and as they also jump in on the short side of Gold, the trend feeds upon itself. Gold manages to reach the depths of $270's even as the DOW tests the heights of 10,000. You said, "Consistent and high correlation of negative gold news stories alleging the sale of large stockpiles of gold every time gold tries to rally beyond $314 then $297. No real evidence of major gold sales actually proven." Just as the DOW-maniacs hearken to the cry "Buy the dips!" every time the DOW visits temporary lows, doesn't it also stand to reason that anti-gold-mentalists will see a rally as a selling opportunity. Natural market forces, given the preponderance of anti-gold propaganda over the years.

And we all know the reason for the propaganda. For the past thirty years the governments of the world have been trying a GRAND EXPERIMENT in using fiat currency. Since 1971, the people have had to endure (and many succumbed to) constant propaganda and other efforts to maintain confidence (and viability) in paper money. Certainly, those in the mining industry singularly suffer as a result. I would think GATA would do very well to embrace this realization, and either lobby for a return to sound money on behalf of the operating mining companies, or else as for a government hand-out of fiat money as compensation for being the side of the experiment that HAD to suffer during the duration.

Gold is on the opposite end of the lever from fiat monies. Take heart in this...the fulcrum is very, VERY near to the end whereon sit the dollars. It takes a lot of dollars, and a lot of confidence, and a lot of constant attention in the "care and feeding" of a fiat money to maintain the balance with a little bit of Gold. Gold has the natural and inherent leverage. The experiment is coming to an end, the white lab-coats are coming off, the battle has been lost. It is just that the people don't know it yet. The markets operate on momentum, and those who continue to sell Gold that they have for paper, or worse, short-sell Gold that they don't have in the expectation that all is as before, they are in for a rude surprise.

If the internet has done nothing else, it has facilitated a new era of understanding. As people look for answers to the many problems in life, the ubiquitous dollar and all of its flaws will find its way to the fore. And there is no intelligent discussion of money itself that does not include Gold. I'm not saying that Gold is a substitute for hard work, or an intelligent investment in a company that produces a worthwhile product at a profit. I am saying that Gold is the proper and natural form of capital in which to hold your excess productivity and capital gains.

Steve, a tool that seems to be used lately in efforts by "the Powers" to maintain the success of this fiat system (which is clearly benefiting lately by riding the coat-tails of a manic stock market) is one thing that you didn't mention (or else I read over it without comprehension -- I'm sorry). I would chime in that it is especially egregious. You touched on it in your line that I quoted above...except that thought was Price-driven. What I have in mind is the Gold-sale announcements that are consistently trotted out (regardless of Gold price) whenever the stock market has suffered a string of losses and is poised on the brink for the BIG FALL. Announcements of sales (remember the infamous Swiss announcement one crucial October day?) certainly helps my efforts of Gold acquisition, but by God, how many people (sheeple) have been cruelly tricked from following through with a smart, self-preservation move into real money (Gold) as a safe haven? I'll take the cheap Gold, but the consequence for others is just wrong! Will I fall victim to North of 49's rioting and (ir)rational masses? Because clearly, I am the obvious beneficiary of years of negative Gold-sentiment being propagated by the Govt and the press.

To conclude, you said "So Aristotle, yes it may be just the market action at play but from my point of view, the negative market action is being helped along by some awfully obvious and convenient press, exchange, and government allies." We are in complete agreement, here Steve. But given the Fiat Experiment, I don't think you need to chalk overmuch to mere coincidence. But here is the question GATA supporters will have to face...Were they, or were they not, net beneficiaries of a relatively strong and stable dollar throughout the past years? If in fact they put EVERYTHING into mining stocks, their case is much like the smokers who claimed that their innocent and unknowing pursuits were callously observed and allowed by a tobacco industry that knew the truth of the matter all along...compensation is due (or at least some courts have ruled as such). Lastly, Steve, you said "The question is do these make the market (manipulation) or does the market make these (no manipulation)?" I think it is like the Chicken and Egg question. Each one can be found to be propagated by the other. Which came first? 1971 is the answer. Now the question is, can a case be made for CRIMINAL propaganda/manipulation? I simply don't want a bunch of good gold hearts to be spinning their wheels to the left when a good firm path lies to the right. The World Gold Council seems to have finally come around to the right way of thinking. GATA would do well to echo their postion, cause the market will set itself right long before any lawsuit will yield satisfaction. I don't feel that I'm disagreeing with you, Steve, so I hope that this doesn't come across that way. I feel like you and I are on the same team. I simply felt that your good dissertation of events/facts was worthy of a an attempt to round out the discussion with a dissertation of impressions (even if they are limited to one man's biased perspective--mine!)

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Tomcat

(04/03/1999; 17:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4167)

Aristotle, Steve H, and USA Gold

This is my first post. May I say that I am held in awe by the competence and respect for one another that members bring to the table. As such, I am hesitant to post. I know not of gold but I am learned enough in Y2k to know that very few individuls had a perspective on y2k based on facts. However, the Fed does have this perspective and this might shed some light on the picture of gold's supposed manipulation.

Aristotle, Steve H and USA Gold have discussed manipulation and conspiracy. It certainly looks on the surface that one or both are present. However, because I am inclined toward Steve H's opinion I must admit that my opinion only weakens me because, when one is dealing with the absence of fact, opinion can lead one astray. With that in mind consider the following model that could explain the apparent control of gold prices.

Fact #1. Central banks have, for some time now, known about Y2k and most importantly, they have know the size of the remediation problem. They are, after all, the overseers of the remediation.

Fact #2. The Central Banks know that status of the bank remediation and testing. Except for embedded chips, the Central Banks really know more about the systemic aspect of Y2k than any other agency. They can predict what will happen better than most. Unlike most firms and governments, the Fed has facts about thousand of banks.

Fact #3: The Y2k status of the US banks is second to none. I am not saying the US banks are in good shape or bad shape. It is the relative condition of US banking compared to other banks in other countries that is very strong.

Supposition: Suppose now that the Fed and several other Central Banks come to the conclusion that the US government, the US banks, and the US industrial base are going to play a very strong role in the international Y2k recovery. What if the US is in control of the y2k recovery?

Might the relative strength of the US banks and the US economy be such that the dollar will grow much stronger compared to other currencies?

Based on this relative strenth and control, these CBs might be making their gold judgements on the future relative strength of the dollar. Based on this alone, they, not the public, could be making a slow but steady, non manipulative, run for the dollar!!

Could it be that while the CBs claim that a depositor is luny for wanting currency, they are strengthing their own dollar position?

TownCrier

(04/03/1999; 17:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4168)

Russia lashes out at "barbaric" bombing of Belgrade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990403/n.htmlSentiment: in place of thugs exterminating individuals, we now have armies exterminating a nation.

Gandalf the White

(04/03/1999; 17:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4169)

Welcome TOMCAT

I sure do not know if I should head for the hills cause of Y2k, or just sit it out with the larder that the Hobbits have set aside and get fatter ! Looks as if GOLDFLY was right in seeing that Horseman named WAR getting closer and closer --- Thats for the faster links MK --- looks as if the "TOWN Crier" is going to have a GREAT time. "Mr. Linkley" is doing good too. With all the deep thoughts and education, I am starting to get a head ache. --- OH, now I remember --- I forgot to eat today cause of reading all this GREAT stuff. Time out ! -- I will be back shortly.
<;-)

Aristotle

(04/03/1999; 18:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4170)

Tomcat, you are a welcome addition to the Table

I appreciate your contribution, especially to Y2K as it relates to banks. I think that very matter is causing a good many people (bankers, mostly) a lot of sleepless nights. The introduction of reasonable uncertainty into the system will cause a run on the limited supply of paper money. And while nothing else has been fundamentally changed with respect to the operation of banks or the nature of the dollar, the problem will propel people to seek understanding, and they will discover the "man behind the curtain" as in The Wizard of OZ.

This was a very thought-provoking notion, "Supposition: Suppose now that the Fed and several other Central Banks come to the conclusion that the US government, the US banks, and the US industrial base are going to play a very strong role in the international Y2k recovery. What if the US is in control of the y2k recovery? "

I'm sure that the US and its banks are more than willing to pay a bit now to reap a larger reward later. The "paying now" amounts to doing whatever possible to ensure that the people don't lose confidence in the banking system, and that nothing will propel them into the discovery of "the man behind the curtain." Maybe the thought is, "If we have to give up a significant amount of our Gold today to maintain the illusion, so be it; we will thereby survive to a future day where we can buy it all back--and then some--with the money we create at the stroke of a pen!"

I can't help but think of the George Bernard Shaw quote found in Michael's ABC's:
"You have to choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the government. And with all due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

Poetic! ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/03/1999; 18:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4171)

It's Time To Think Earnings Again

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990403/weekly_wal_1.htmlNow that the Dow 10,000 party is over, investors are returning to a more sobering concern: Did companies earn enough in the first quarter to justify their stratospheric stock prices?
And do earnings yesterday guarantee prosperity tomorrow?

Aristotle

(04/03/1999; 18:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4172)

Hey ET--Thanks for the pat on the back.

Never expected, but always appreciated!
Same "thanks" to USAGOLD. Made my day.

Peter Asher

(04/03/1999; 19:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4173)

"The Final Battle"; Led by the ### 5th Horseman, OIL ###

This allegory draws on things that may not be known to all.
1) In The Lord of the Rings, the Dark Lord is named Sauron,
2) There is a chant about the 'One Ring of Power'.
3) Mussolini was known as El Duche', His speeches were often cheered by the chanting of Duche', Duche', Duche'.

The horsemen of the financial Apocalypse have gathered with their legions to plan the 'Final Battle.' The great hall is guarded by its hosts, the ORC's (Oil Reserve Countries).

Their leader enters the hall. He is clothed head to toe in shiny (slightly slimly) ink-black garb. A lifetime of working with and in the noxious environment of his power requires him to wear a helmet and mask, both to hide the ravages on his skin and to enable his damaged lungs to breath. He is known by many names. To the followers of the sage, Lucas, he is known for the source of his power as Petrorich Vader. To the followers of Tolkien, he is known for the price devastation that he creates, The Lord Soar-on.

He faces the four other horsemen and commences to speak, "You, Asian Contagion, have done your task well. You have decimated the economies of a multitude of nations and left them terribly wounded and struggling to heal. Unfortunately the enemy was stronger than we had anticipated and did not succumb to the losses that ravaged his marketplace. His propaganda machine was unbelievably successful in creating powerful legions of Dipsters, who repetitively rallied and overwhelmed our onslaughts against the skin of the bubble created by our noble warrior, Stock Market. Even then we might have prevailed had it not been for the failure of our soldier, Euro!"

As the Dark Lord's visage turns to him, Euro's hands go to his throat as if he is experiencing a choking sensation. The hall falls silent for a long moment as all within know what is happening. Then Euro appears to recover and the High Lord continues, "You have permitted your Legions to fall into disarray, It was by working together as one that they would have become powerful. However, you may still redeem yourself! Certain advantages to us have occurred, due to your failure to drive down the value of the Dollar. The greater purchasing power of the enemy's currency has enabled us to acquire more of everything we wish, except from the enemy, himself. This includes of course, Gold! This will make us stronger in the end. When the time comes again, Euro, you will not fail!"

Again Euro grabs his throat as if choking and the hall waits until it passes. The Dark Lord continues, "Now you, Stock Market, hear me well! For several seasons I have waged a major feint in the ongoing battle. I have permitted the enemy to obtain my power for fewer of his dollars. But quantitatively we have still won. What matter that we gave him more of our vast resources for but a short while? Helped by Euro's failure, we have accumulated great wealth and they are now, more than ever, dependent on the Dark Side."

"The enemy has been lulled into complacency by the ease with which he has obtained our power. He has gorged himself on huge quantities of SUVs, forgetting the lessons of twenty years ago. He is now, with his expanded economy, more dependent on our power than ever before. He cannot survive without me. HE MUST HAVE OIL OR PERISH!!"

The great hall shakes with waves of cheering as all realize that triumph is theirs for the taking. Quite returns, and the Lord continues, "Now, Stock Market, here is what we will do. I am reducing the amount of power that I will permit them to have, and I will claim a greater number of their dollars in return. What will occur at first is that their flows to other endeavors will diminish. Your preliminary price-drop skirmishes will be met by their thinning ranks of Dipsters. However, the reality of our onslaught will become apparent from the earnings reports on the results of our battle. The remaining forces will flee in terror, trampling each other. It will be a slaughter never before seen in the history of financial warfare! All your labors, Stock Market, to create a bigger bubble, will be rewarded by this spectacular defeat of our enemy. He will never recover!"

Again the hall is filled with frantic cheering as the legions savor their imminent victory. Their leader goes on, "As more and more of the enemy's remaining resources are spent to acquire the Dark Power, there will be fewer of his own people for his production facilities to sell to. He will then have to debase his Dollar to unheard-of levels in order to sell to the rest of the world. He will be able to afford only the basic needs of life, especially OUR OIL."

The Dark Lord returns his gaze to Euro, who's hand goes halfway to his throat before realizing nothing is happening. Again the Lord speaks, "This is the moment, Euro, when you WILL strike! You will become the currency for which we will trade our Oil. We will have spent our dollars on the dollar- cheap gold, some of which we might exchange with you to increase your power over the enemy. Now they will be completely at our mercy. More and more of their product will be used as tribute to us for what little we hand them. What gold they have left, will be of no avail. (In fact, some of our intelligence indicates that after they have been fooled out of their IMF stake, they may have none.) You, Euro, will become the power with which we will buy them out. Their farms and forests, their corporations, will be for us mere tokens of expense as their collapsed stock prices and deflated properties go begging for the crumbs we will trade for them."

Murmurs of approval circulate the hall as all contemplate the spoils of battle. The speech continues, "They will fight mightily to repel the onslaught. They will recruit countless new dollars to fight the battle. But these new deflated dollars will have no power. They will be untrained and poorly armed soldiers on the field of battle. They will perish in the wind of the holocaust that we have launched against them. This is certain because we have the invincible weapon that will guarantee the outcome!"

The Dark Lord turns to Y2K and raises his hand in salute. Y2K steps up to the lower platform and the hall goes wild. Over and over they chant, "Two-K, Two-K, Two-K, Two-K!"

The Lord gestures for silence and says to Y2K, "You are the ultimate weapon! They know of your existence, and they know of the moment of your attack. Yet they can do nothing until you have struck. Only then can they attempt to rally forces against you and it will be too little and too late. Our other forces will have wrecked havoc. The momentum of our battle will be upon them. Their counterattacks will be as wind blowing waves against the tide! All their rations and ammunition will have been consumed. They will have no production with which to create or purchase more. They will owe everyone unpayable sums and will need years of struggle to regain a normal potential for trade . Throughout all this, their domestic sources of the Power will still be insufficient, and we will continue to receive tribute from them. The might of the black gold, the Dark Side, will have triumphed!"

"All of you, go forth now on our final mission. I will lead the way!"

The Horsemen and their legions File out of the hall, their war chant reverberating as they go,

"One Fluid to rule Them all,
One Fluid to find them;
One Fluid to bring them all,
And in the darkness bind them."

Copyright 4/ 99 by Peter Asher

USAGOLD

(04/03/1999; 19:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4174)

Miscellaneous.....

Tomcat, jls.......Welcome to this table round. Two well-constructed, noble posts. Pull up your chairs; we've been waiting for you. The flagon is passed........fill your glasses!

TownCrier, David Linkley...Thanks for the news we can use!

Aristotle...I always read your stuff with a smile......Thank you.

Onward Knights and Ladies...I never thought this Fifth Horseman would inspire so much pure artistry. The contest advances, as does our common knowledge.

And my fellow knights is not the exiled princess from Yugolavia (now on Larry King) a formidable force and a foxxxxxxxxx? Quite a contrast to good ole Larry -- intellectually and visually .....whoaaaaaa. Sorry Larry.

USAGOLD

(04/03/1999; 19:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4175)

Gandalf, Gandalf, Gandalf

Please........Get something to eat! One does not live by the internet alone. Greetings, my good friend, good to see you here tonight.

(04/03/1999; 20:31:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4176)

Town Crier

Hey TC - my sentiments exactly.

You wrote;

'Sentiment: in place of thugs exterminating individuals, we now have armies exterminating a nation.'

Yes, NATO, a formerly defensive organization, has transformed itself into a politically correct enforcement arm of the elite. This is a troubling development. Invasion of what we knew as 'sovereign' nations is apparently now acceptable. What does everyone think of this situation? I'm starting to believe this is a 'trial balloon' of sorts. Considering the bombardment of war propaganda on the airwaves here in the US, it seems we are being gauged as to our acceptance of this doctrine. MSNBC is almost 24x7 'Kill the Dictator'. Where are the war protestors? Where is the rational thought? Have we been completely corrupted?

ET

USAGOLD

(04/03/1999; 20:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4177)

ET...

How quickly we have gone from the "Sbining City on the Hill" -- Athens -- to a Modern Rome -- to be feared for our military might but not respected for our ideas and philosophy.

I am sorry to say that, but tonight I am not proud of my country. How could I be? It is Easter and this is going on.

Sorry for going off subject.

(04/03/1999; 20:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4178)

Peter

'Again Euro grabs his throat as if choking and the hall waits until it passes.'

ROTFLMAO! You have a devious mind Mr. Asher.

ET

Gandalf the White

(04/03/1999; 20:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4179)

"I'm BACK" <;-)

Revitalized and surfing again. Man is the web dry and bitter today ! Only here at the TableRound is the atmosphere warm and thought provoking. GREAT story there Peter of the House of Asher. Good thing you copyrighted it too, as my crystal ball shows literary agents lurking about the FORUM. Have you received any contracts via email, like GOLDFLY did ? keep them coming you lurkers, come on in, the water is fine.
<;-)

NORTH OF 49

(04/03/1999; 21:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4180)

Yikes!!!

Holy Smokes Peter!! Does this mean I'm sleeping with the enemy??!!

No49

(04/03/1999; 21:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4181)

USAGOLD

Yeah MK, this is a sorry situation. If this continues it will undoubtedly become one of your horsemen. Although this seems a political war at this time, I believe it is 'the' political war. If this becomes acceptable then we are in deep ca-ca. This is our new Viet Nam, so to speak. I don't find people supporting this action but rather total apathy. I somehow think there will be a price to pay for this attitude.

Happy Easter MK, and thanks again for providing this forum.

ET

Goldfly

(04/03/1999; 21:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4182)

ET- A trial baloon?

If this is a trial baloon, they picked an awful place to launch it. This is mountainous terrain, not see-for-miles flat and treeless Iraq.

An axiom of war is "You cannot occupy territory with air power." If he has any interest in doing so, Milosevic can turn that place into a meat grinder.

As USAGOLD has pointed out now and previously; we are getting too much like ancient Rome: hedonism, debauchery, hubris(HEY JLS! GREAT PIECE!), and..... military adventurism in places where they really had no business. The time may not be long, in fact may already be here, when not enough people are going to give a hoot one way or the other.

I've been saying for years the the USA has been getting along on it's reputation. The current leadership in DC has squandered it.

What's next? What's left? What can be salvaged?

GF

(04/03/1999; 21:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4183)

Goldfly

Hey Goldfly

'If this is a trial baloon, they picked an awful place to launch it. This is mountainous terrain, not
see-for-miles flat and treeless Iraq.'

I'm not sure winning the 'war' is the goal. This seems more to me like an effort to put down dissent. 'Get on the team' or we're going to make your life miserable.

I don't know what is actually going on here Goldfly, but everything I do know about this doesn't add up. There seems to be something seriously askew with this picture the media is painting for us.

ET

Goldfly

(04/03/1999; 21:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4184)

Gandalf- My agent!

Quick! Where do I sign? Have you been holding out on me?

beesting

(04/03/1999; 22:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4185)

######$292.10#######

http://bizyahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.htmlLike to comment on the news release:
WGC says pensions are an untapped market.
http://bizyahoo.com/rf/990330/w8.html

U.S.pension funds bought at least 100 tons of Gold in the last 2 years. If pension funds put 1% of their assets in Gold,thats a lot of Gold.

I see this as an extremely good thing for the whole Gold industry it may cause supply side economics to finally kick in and raise the price of Gold to astronomical heights,which is what I thought was the goal of all Gold bugs.
Here are my reasons:

Prolonged higher Gold prices would cause an upsurge in new Gold mining operations, and exploration and eventually more annual Gold production.

Because of prolonged higher Gold prices some jewelery would be melted down,bringing more new Gold to market.

The whole earth is a virtual Gold mine untapped ,the earth is 2/3 ocean and scientists have proven 1 cubic mile of ocean water contains tons of Gold,but the current low price of Gold makes the extraction process unprofitable.

Currently there is an operation in South Africa (East Rand Gold & Uranium Co) that is operating a profitable slimes treatment of Gold tailings. This process would be done worldwide if the price of Gold goes up,putting more Gold into worldwide annual production figures.

In summary, in my opinion,with current technology not available in Gold's real hay-days (1849's)(1898's) current production could go up ten-fold if the price of Gold went way past realistic levels.($30,000 per ounce).

As far as the current shortage of bullion coins in the U.S. does anyone here think the U.S.Government would put a cap on production of new coins to conserve existing Gold reserves being sold at ridiculously low prices? If Gold plummets to $200.00 per ounce for an extended period of time, the quota for new coin production may be zero!!

Have a Happy Easter............beesting

pa kua

(04/03/1999; 22:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4186)

*****Fifth Horseman on a stag****

The Fifth Horseman? In a word, "Stagflation" (which may become an "Inflationary Depression" next year) evidenced by
a decline of the US dollar,a rise in long-term interest
rates, and an acknowledged recession in the US Economy. After over a year of declining profits and share prices of most companies, there will be an increase in the prices of real assets and the shares of related companies.Defense-related stocks will likely be in demand.

backlash

(04/03/1999; 22:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4187)

******* THE FIFTH HORSEMAN - - INFLATION ********** ########## 285.60 ###########

Indeed, indeed, INFLATION is the name of the fifth horseman. There can be little doubt in my mind that this is the identity of the shrouded figure. AZ Hiker, Richard, High Density, and G the W you are all quite correct in your choice and I wish to join you in this choice.

Why inflation ? And is it yet the master all the horsemen ? Yes it is, but why ? The question posed was what was the fifth horseman that is now driving people to Gold. Inflation is the driving force.

People have been exposed to the Y2K Horseman and, with at least nominal success, the government and media have done a reasonably good job of assuaging the fears of the bulk of the populace. For those not persuaded, they have long since been preparing for this horseman. (Just look at the past few months postings at this site archives if you need verification.) Included in their preparations have been the acquisition of the 'warm' metal; therefore, that run was already in progress.

The Asian Contagion Horseman has affected everyone else, but not the US (at least not officially), yet. Fearing this horseman has been little basis (as the public sees it) to move to gold. So far at least, and no clear reason to do so at this time.

The Stock Market Horseman is in charge, and capably so with the media and spin meisters' help, of demonizing gold so no one is ready to race away from this evil one, either.

The well heralded introduction of the Euro Horseman is now spent. (For the time being, that is.) With the euro trading lower and lower vs. the US$, what is there to fear from this shadow ?

Enter the FIFTH HORSEMAN ! INFLATION ! - - - What does each of the original four horsemen have in common with the others to one degree or another ? Yes, the Fifth Horseman. So, then, is the new horseman an entity unto himself or an composite aberration of features from the original FOUR ? Weeelllllll, yes and no. (thought you would like that answer) . . Yes, inasmuch as this horseman can be totally independent of any other and a horrendous force to be reckoned with individually. (Look back to the '70's and see what happened as a good example.) And no, because he can easily slide into the cloak of any of the other horsemen to aid and abet the demise spread by each and all of his compadres.

Now, the 'why' INFLATION is the fifth horseman.

Restlessness and unease embrace the people. Confusion and uncertainty surround Y2K, the Asian contagion, the Euro, and the 'irrational exuberance' of the stock market. Experts abound regarding each issue, some saying one thing and others saying exactly the opposite. Too much is happening with inadequate explanation to or comprehension by the average person.

This all leads to the logical conclusion: What do they fear most ? INFLATION, because most people have seen it (to some degree or another) and are scared to death of it thanks to 'you know who'. What is blasted to the public continually about the economy ? Yes indeedy, "INFLATION IS UNDER CONTROL" ! This is what Mr. Joe Average blue collar worker has been bombarded with continually. Now he senses that everything is NOT under control; therefore, 'Inflation' must be right at the doorstep. Nothing wrong with that thinking. [After all, THEY are the ones that linked the logic of inflation being under control (whatever that means) with security and a personal 'comfort zone'.] This new rush is not from the old time goldhearts, but from newbies who are starting to get frightened by the cacophony of events that are not well explained and which they do not understand. And EVERYONE knows Gold is a hedge against inflation or at least one fine security blanket during international troubled times.

Basically I think that they don't know just what it is they fear. The survival "fight or flight" instinct is coming to the surface. They do not know what to do or even what (or who) the enemy is and they want to find some sort of safe haven.

Is it not ironic that a basic instinct is now driving so many to the 'security blanket' of gold? And I suspect that a great number of them do not even know 'why' gold is their answer. It just appears to be the only safe port and they either see or sense a tremendous storm coming soon.

We who sit at this noble table have such a true privilege to know much of the who's, what's, and why's associated with each of the now FIVE Horsemen. This is the knowledge that serves well its students.

Fellow Knights, please excuse the lack of eloquence so well presented by so many of you. I deem it a great honor to be afforded at seat at the table to absorb knowledge from so many. This submission is rather simple, yet I believe it captures the spirit of the human condition. Fallible, curious, fearful, optimistic, and protecting.

Much has been, and needs to be, said regarding the horsemen. Still, sometimes an overview and broad scope understanding of the inter relationships of the horsemen seems in order.

Best Wishes, bl

NORTH OF 49

(04/03/1999; 22:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4188)

On a somber note

MK, ET, Town Crier, Goldfly, and all, as most of you know, I am presently assigned to an offshore operation in Russia, which gives me the privilege of a "street-level" view of the Russian citizens' opinion of this debacle in the Balkins.

I can only listen, as the three ironclad rules of international consulting are:

1. Don't talk about politics
2. Don't talk about religion
3. Don't talk about money

From the input that has been volunteered to me though, these people are as afraid of Yeltsin getting involved in this conflict as most people are in the west. They seem to see him as very unstable, and not entirely in control of the affairs of the country. At least three of the people I work with had friends or relatives come home from Afghanistan in body bags. These people are no more interested in fighting a war they don't understand than a lot of the posts showing up from a western origin.

As Vladimir, a technician here stated to me, "we have no food, no coal, I haven't been paid for two years. The only people with these luxuries are the politicians and the mafia who are usually the same people. If they want to go to war--let them go!!"

I don't think patriotism would make Letterman's Top Ten list here.

No49

Peter Asher

(04/03/1999; 22:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4189)

What be ROTFLMAO. That line you quoted is a parody on Star Wars where Darth Vader uses his power of the 'dark force'to punish failure by underlings, sometimes completing the process.

pa kua

(04/03/1999; 22:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4190)

******Gold 286.75******

Peace and Good Luck to all.

Peter Asher

(04/03/1999; 22:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4191)

North of 49

Which side of the OPEC fence are your guys on? They may be in the same soup we are,trying to produce there way out of dependency.

Please realize that I was depicting a war counsel of one side of the battle. I am now contemplating what we have for Jedi Knights on our side, along with the potential for the American people to be heroic "Frodos'. Hint, our Light Sabers will be microwave satellites.

Goldfly

(04/03/1999; 23:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4192)

##### June Gold 283.30 ######

Untill somebody shakes gold out of it's slumber one guess is as good as another, but you guys in the 290's are dreaming.

Happy Easter all!!

GF

The Stranger

(04/03/1999; 23:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4193)

Tomcat First, Then ET

Tomcat...Marvelous post. I hope you plan to stick around, friend. You bring welcome depth to the Round Table.

I think your point about y2k-inspired dollar confidence makes all the sense in the world. I don't doubt that all sorts of money managers are thinking the same thing you are. As Jan.1 draws closer, many will, no doubt, find the dollar to be their currency of choice. Fortunately for them, or unfortunately, as the case may be, there is no shortage of dollars out there.

Now, ET... about Kosovo: This thing has just begun, and it is already an ugly mess. Sheeeeesh! (Sorry, Aristotle). I think the point needs to be made, however, that one cannot even run a peaceful neighborhood, much less a world, without an active constabulary on the beat. We Americans want control over which countries have access to which weapons. We seek sanctions against nations that proliferate. We bomb Iraq, not because they invaded Kuwait nine years ago, but because we wish to stop them from developing some of the very same weapons we ourselves have had for many years. Would anyone in this room have it any different? Is not the very survival of mankind ultimately at stake?

ET, you aver that "invasion of what we knew as 'sovereign' nations is apparently now acceptable". But, if we are going to dictate the extent to which others may provide for their own defense, do we not bear a profound moral obligation to come running when any society seeks the destruction of another? Clearly, there is no one else who can do the job.

No, I think a better question is: do we command sufficient moral authority to be the arbiter of who lives and who dies in this volatile world? That question alone is the best argument one can make for why the current president should have been removed from office.

In short:
Does the situation in Kosovo indicate an important failure of American foreign policy? ...Yes!
But, do we have any business being the "Cops of the World" in the first place?...I submit to you that we have no business not. To do otherwise would be a craven and despicable act.

Goldfly

(04/03/1999; 23:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4194)

Darth Asher

Peter, ROFL= rolling on the floor laughing- I'll let you figure out the rest of ET's.

ORC!!! ROFL! ROFL!

GF

NORTH OF 49

(04/03/1999; 23:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4195)

Peter Asher

I'll try and give you what I percieve as Russias role in this oil game--remember, I am only a "hired gun" and this is a very secretive business. I'm sure that Stranger is much better versed to answer your question than I.

From what I understand, Russia is the biggest world producer of oil. Production and exploration technology are huge barriers for her though. As far as their role within OPEC--personally, I don't think they give a damn what OPEC thinks or does. They are so far in debt here that with the price of crude starting to show some life, I am seeing incredible amounts of money being thrown at a project that IMHO, will take two decades to recover costs. I wouldn't make that statement if it were not already available to the public. This just isn't a petro rich area--I don't understand why the effort isn't being directed towards a more profitable land based operation on the mainland.
They have done some goofy things here in the past. One very promising field was literaly destroyed through a recovery technique called "water-injection". Basically, if there isn't enough gas pressure to lift the crude, it is displaced with high pressure water. This is all well and good, as long as the crude isn't paraffin based, and the water used to displace isn't from a 45 degree F local river!! Froze it tighter than a bulls' butt in fly season!!!

As far as producing their way out of dependency, in a round about way I would agree, but I think it would be more to increase exports than to decrease imports.

No49

PS: I'm going to have to see the movie again to keep up with your inspiring writings

HLime

(04/03/1999; 23:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4196)

******* THE FIFTH HORSEMAN - - Au ********** ########## 274.10 ###########

I see it. Brighter than the noon day sun. A light that
will shine the way for those that will see it just as it
rises above the horizon. If you wait till it rises too
high it will start burning all paper. Yes my friends gold
will make an excellent fifth columnist for the other
horsemen.

Harry

Peter Asher

(04/03/1999; 23:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4197)

Goldfly, ET.

Goldfly, thanks for the clue, got the rest.

ET, thanks for the compliment.

When I started that piece, I was trying to create allegory out of analysis, but as I worked on it, the analysis began to derive from the allegory. Interesting tool.

Gandalf the White

(04/04/1999; 00:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4198)

HLime's Horseman

WOW, Henry, I had never thought of Gold in that way.
Welcome and give us some more of your thoughts.
<'-)

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 00:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4199)

Stranger

As is often the case, you and I agree when several others may lean away from our perception. It is horrifying to see the destruction being vented upon the historic infrastructure of Yugoslavia. It is frightening to see the potential for "brinkmanship" rearing its ugly head again, and threatening to embroil the world. You are so right that the biggest threat of all is the lack of character and sanity regarding the 'clown in chiefs clothing'.

Yet what else can we do? The reports of the horrors being perpetrated cannot possibly be mere propaganda. The ground action seems inevitable and yet that's what soldiers are trained for. It is their job. There are two things that could go horribly wrong though.

After the attack on Pearl Harbor, Admiral Yamamoto made his famous statement, "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a great resolve." It wasn't the American soldier he was afraid of, it was 'Rosie the Riveter.' If a conflict becomes a covert battleground for larger interests, it may be the supply of armament that will determine the outcome. Then we have not a war, but an arms race. As a Poster said earlier, when you loose the dogs of war you cannot necessarily call them back.

The other threat that can derive from police action, is Police State. In a one world government, you can no longer "vote with your feet." The precepts of sovereign nations and democratic governments beholden to the populace become ever more crucial to our survival.

We have rushed in where angels fear to tread, and we must therefore be careful of our steps.

A sad event for Easter Sunday, but it is a day of hope.

Peter A.

(04/04/1999; 00:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4200)

Price of Gold April 9th ****285.6**** 5TH Horseman War

When Michael introduced the subject for this weekend's contest, two things came to mind, Inflation and War. There are signs of price inflation finding it's way into the economy such as yesterday's local paper which carried an article talking about 2 dollar a gallon gasoline in California. However, I thought when customers call and purchase gold, and Michael asks Why? I suspect people are becoming alarmed with our president's actions in Kosovo and the potential for escalation into a major war. Anyone who has studied history knows that in times of War the currencies typically get inflated and gold becomes more precious. I am suggesting the fifth horseman is Wars and Rumors of War.

Below are several reasons for alarm over President Clinton's actions.

In studying Clinton's past, it seems that he made a number of trips to Moscow during the Viet Nam War. He spent time at Oxford and was likely indoctrinated in the Cecil Roades School of One World Government.

While in office Clinton has severely weakened our Military, both from a morale and asset standpoint.

During the Viet Nam war he dodged the draft, and while that war was handled poorly, at least we knew we were fighting communists. When on several recent occasions Clinton was willing to drop "Wag the Dog" bombs, it makes this action in Kosovo extremely suspect.

Last week the papers were reporting we are running out of missiles and have no replacements in the works. And should we replace them the Clinton Administration wants to contract with Russia to build them even though Lockheed and others in this country have superior technology. The question that comes to mind is whether Clinton is purposely trying to deplete our arsenal?

A number of authors have suggested the Soviet Empire has not completely disintegrated as the western press and leaders keep telling us. But rather it is restructuring, rearranging, reorganizing and rearming preparatory to its final thrust for world domination.

Anatoliy Golitsyn in "New lies for Old" and "Perestroika Deception" says that the Soviets are simply using Lenin's approach where he quotes Sun Tsa as follows:

"We advance through retreat�.when we are weak, we boast of strength, and when we are strong, we feign weakness." While I believe it is clear that Russia is economically weak, a number of authorities state that have continued to maintain their military, continue to build civil defense systems, they continue to develop germ and chemical warfare and that they have not complied with weapons destruction treaties.

Golitsyn a KGB defector who warned us prior to the events occurring that the USSR would collapse and the Berlin wall would come down as a way of getting the west to disarm.

Another author Jeffrey Nyquist wrote "The Origins of the Fourth World War" and in that book he suggests Russia has been planning a surprise nuclear attack against the US.

Mikhail Gorbachev said in 1987 & 1989 respectively

"In October 1917, we parted with the old world, rejecting it once and for all. We are moving toward a new world, the world of communism. We shall never turn off that road."
"Through restructuring (perestroika) we want to give socialism a second wind. To achieve this, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union returns to the origins and principles of the Bolshevik Revolution, to the Leninist ideas about the construction of a new society."

While most American's believe the cold war is over, both Russia and China have expanded their nuclear arsenals in recent years.

Russia and China both seem to be probing our defenses. The news carried an article several weeks ago about a computer in Russia breaking into Pentagon computers. It seems that whatever the Clinton Administration didn't sell to the Chinese for campaign contributions, they allowed spy's to provide to the Chinese. Why do these country's go to the effort of obtaining this information if they have no intentions of ever using it?

Nyquist predicted in 1998 that authorities in Russia would deliberately implode their own economy to advance their political and military agendas. Interesting now it looks like IMF money's were misappropriated by Russian leaders and at the same time Russia's economic collapse is being blamed on the west and thus increases the risk of war.

Another Russian defector Stanislav Lunev in his book "Through the Eyes of the Enemy" suggests that Russia is continuing to plan for War, and that Nuclear, Biological and chemical weapons would be deployed.

Russia nuclear arsenal is dependent on computers and yet they do not have moneys to fix the Y2K problem. Their approach is to fix upon failure. One concern that has been expressed is that their weaponry is as good as it will get, since Y2k will make much of it obsolete, and so they would be tempted to us it before they lose it to Y2k defects.

Well I could go on but I am finding I don't have the time to read long posts and I suspect that is true with others as well.

(04/04/1999; 00:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4201)

Price of Gold April 9th ****285.6**** 5TH Horseman War

(04/04/1999; 01:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4202)

Backlash

Sorry, we just must think alike. I actually wrote down all the predicted prices for gold prior to beginning my post, but by the time I actually finished and posted, there you were.

(04/04/1999; 01:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4203)

Peter Asher

It seems to me that from past posts you are somewhat into herbs. Well it just so happens that there are times when gold alone can't cure my heartburn. ( that was just so Michael would think I am still on topic) If you are aware of or run across an herbal remedy for heartburn I would be interested.

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 07:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4204)

Gandalf the White

Sir Gandalf. Thank you for you welcome.

Your insights on oil are helpful. They envoke a question which keeps coming to the fore of my thoughts but to which no answered has been forthcoming.

That we know the ememy let us assume that we are they. Let us assume that we have the power to control both gold short sales and oil barrel prices. Let us clandestinely meet. Who would be our allies? How would we change the the barrels per ounce ratio to our favor? Who would we use to execute our evil intentions in the market place?

(04/04/1999; 09:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4205)

Stranger

Hey Stranger - thanks for the lengthy response.

You wrote;

'Now, ET... about Kosovo: This thing has just begun, and it is already an ugly mess. Sheeeeesh!
(Sorry, Aristotle). I think the point needs to be made, however, that one cannot even run a peaceful
neighborhood, much less a world, without an active constabulary on the beat. We Americans want
control over which countries have access to which weapons. We seek sanctions against nations that
proliferate. We bomb Iraq, not because they invaded Kuwait nine years ago, but because we wish
to stop them from developing some of the very same weapons we ourselves have had for many
years. Would anyone in this room have it any different? Is not the very survival of mankind ultimately
at stake?'

I don't think what you describe is the case here. To my knowledge Serbia was not developing mass weaponry or attempting to export their political philosophy. This area of the world has seen conflict for hundreds of years and I wouldn't be surprised if it lasted hundreds more. What is our place here?

'ET, you aver that "invasion of what we knew as 'sovereign' nations is apparently now acceptable".
But, if we are going to dictate the extent to which others may provide for their own defense, do we
not bear a profound moral obligation to come running when any society seeks the destruction of
another?'

The first problem I see is our determination to dictate to others. Is this not the same 'Imperialism' we claim to deplore in others? Our country was founded on the exact opposite philosophy.

'Clearly, there is no one else who can do the job.'

You assume this job needs doing but I'm afraid I don't.

'No, I think a better question is: do we command sufficient moral authority to be the arbiter of who
lives and who dies in this volatile world? That question alone is the best argument one can make for
why the current president should have been removed from office.'

'In short:
Does the situation in Kosovo indicate an important failure of American foreign policy? ...Yes!
But, do we have any business being the "Cops of the World" in the first place?...I submit to you that
we have no business not.'

This is where we'll have to disagree. Some people are going to fight no matter what you or I might think of their actions. I don't believe this is our concern nor will it ever be.

'To do otherwise would be a craven and despicable act.'

I consider what NATO is doing a craven and despicable act. If invasion of 'sovereign' nations is now to be the order of the day, where does this stop? Are people not allowed to live the way they please under this sovereignty the same way we choose to? I see us holding no moral high ground here. This is plain and simple Imperialism and I'm afraid I'll never find this right. Thanks for the response Stranger.

ET

(04/04/1999; 09:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4206)

Peter

Hey Peter - sorry about the internet slang. I did love your story.

You wrote:

'Yet what else can we do? The reports of the horrors being perpetrated cannot possibly be mere
propaganda.'

Where is the evidence of these 'horrors'? If these horrors actually existed to the extent we are being told, why weren't these people fleeing before we got involved? To me, this doesn't add up. Serbia's government may be dictatorial in nature but I've seen nothing to make me believe the Serbs aren't just being demonized to justify NATO's actions.

'The other threat that can derive from police action, is Police State. In a one world government, you
can no longer "vote with your feet." The precepts of sovereign nations and democratic governments
beholden to the populace become ever more crucial to our survival.'

Yes, I agree completely. This is what I see threatened with this action. This action has all the hallmarks of a one world government attempting to consolidate power. This would be a much greater evil, yes?

From my point of view, NATO has perpetrated more misery on these people than the Serbian government ever could have imagined. We are being fed a line of bs as far as I'm concerned and we should be asking why. Thanks for the response Peter.

ET

(04/04/1999; 10:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4207)

All

I've enjoyed the posts this weekend and it seems there is no shortage of horsemen. Aside what has been mentioned, I'm surprised no one has mentioned the derivatives situation. This would seem to be as big a potential problem as any other and perhaps explains some of the massive manipulation we are now seeing. Has anyone seen anything recently regarding the banks exposure today as compared to say a year ago when this manipulation seemed to increase so much? Is there any unwinding going on or have they bid this up even further?

ET

TownCrier

(04/04/1999; 10:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4208)

The Privateer Speaks Out on Balkan War

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html "As is now almost universally recognized everywhere, including the U.S. itself, this is an American
War. More specifically, it is Mr Clinton's war."

"There is not the slightest chance that the other members of NATO would have started the air campaign over Kosovo. The U.S. did that, and the other NATO members, especially the continental European ones, had the choice of going along or dissolving NATO on the spot."

searching

(04/04/1999; 11:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4209)

Russia

JA I couldn't agree more but there is one extra twist that may be added.

A lot of people say to me that Russia can't do anything as far as the war goes because they need us and a lot of other countries to help them with their financial problems. Have we lost site that the Russian system has virtually collapsed. Russia can do more damage to us and the West without even firing a shot. All they have to do is to come out publicly and say they will not pay back any of the loans they owe if we continue with the war. That would reverse the presure from them to the rest of us. Remember their economy is gone for all practical purposes so such a move can't hurt them much more but it sure could create havic with the world financial markets. Can I have the expertise from some of you on this position?

David Linkley

(04/04/1999; 11:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4210)

NYTimes - Stock Investor "What Me Worry?" Attitude Ignores World Concerns

http://www.nytimes.com/library/financial/sunday/040499market-watch.html"While the euro tumbled on bulletins from the front, the Dow ended the week up 10 points, at 9,832.51. Its relative ebullience in the face of horrors overseas seemed oddly disconnected, at best."

Linkley comment: Wall Street guilt? A new phenomena for Goldilocks market.

YGM

(04/04/1999; 12:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4211)

@ ET (Banks and Derivatives Exposure)

http://www.geocities.com/~CyclePro/Charts/SP500-Articles/DerivExpo.htmLots of information Here!
I won't bore anyone by posting these figures here as I've
already done so before (here? or at other forums), but
they show that a 10-11% move could Bankrupt the
likes of Goldman Sachs etc.
The figures given boggle the mind. Many supposedly
sound Banks could become insolvent very quickly.
Hope this helps your quest for info. Regards-YGM

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 12:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4212)

As our bodies age, they fail to produce sufficient 'digestive enzymes'. Supplements for this are basically food concentrates with some of the components coated to delay release until reaching the part of the digestive tract where they would naturally be delivered. I use NOW brand Super Enzymes, which contain Hydrochloric Acid, Bromelain, Ox Bile, Pancreatin, Papain and Pineapple. This isn't an instant total relief solution, but the results start to show right away, and in a few days there is really a difference. After awhile, one can forget for a day or two and not notice. For instant relief, I use Activated Charcoal tablets. The other end of it is, as we get older, we can't practice food abuse as much. There is a lot more on this, Robin has been studying the subject of nutrition for 30 years and is still learning. In fact the body of data itself is expanding. Also, you have to cull truth from fantasy. Get our phone # and E-mail from Michael or Marie, and give us a holler.

(Robin's note: Peter had a hiatal hernia, which of course gave him a lot of heartburn (gas coming back up from the stomach). He started taking only Pancreatin type enzymes in the beginning � no hydrochloric acid or bile. This created a tremendous improvement in his symptoms. Later, he switched to the Super Enzymes. The other important data is that when you put concentrated proteins (such as meat) and concentrated carbohydrates (such as sugar or fruit) into your stomach AT THE SAME TIME, you give your stomach a terrific challenge because different substances are required to digest these foods. So you start a war in there, and the result is gas, which often comes up as heartburn, or simply a bellyache.

PS: Contemplating nuclear Armageddon could give anyone heartburn!

Peter A.

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 12:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4213)

Cut Paste and Save

I just learned a valuable lesson. (one post to late) When Robin wrote her note to JA, I deleted what I felt was unnecessary and embarrassing personal history. Then the computer acted up, and I had to reclaim the document from the folder. The catch is if you haven't saved, after a delete, you get back the undeleted version. Lesson #2, (which I think a lot of us have trouble with) is proof reading *After* pasting into the posting box.

Red faced, but stalwart as ever,

Peter

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 12:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4214)

Searching

The problem Russia faces isn't just what they owe. They need more! Bankruptcy doesn't pay unless it leaves you enough materiel to function and recover. I believe that if Russia had to start from square one at this point, she'd be economically dead in the water.

searching

(04/04/1999; 13:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4215)

Russia

Peter - Thanks for the input I agree, I just hope that Russia has enough common sense to see this., also and not to act emotionally. After all they are planning to cut off our help on Y2k regarding their nukes which seems illogical to me. Also I understand that they are drafting 170,000 men for the Army which I assume is their threat to enter the war. If they enter the war with troops we probably will cut off any future financial aid to them anyhow. Any way you look at it this is potentially a much worse situation than heir Klinton ever dreamed of. Although I have contended that ever since Monica he has had a burning desire to be remembered for something else in history besides Monica Gate as his only legacy. The next few weeks will be interesting at least.

TownCrier

(04/04/1999; 13:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4216)

Saudi oil minister meets U.S. executives in Riyadh

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990404/bd.htmlOil business

USAGOLD

(04/04/1999; 14:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4217)

The Last Few Hours of the Fifth Horseman Contest

We come to the last few hours of the contest. This Fifth Horseman has become the subject of much speculation among the knights and ladies as well it should. This is a menacing rider indeed -- one who has struck fear in the heart of the market before. Now he appears again.......There on the hill! Look at his elegant, well-bred mount; his ghostly visage. For nigh on three days past we have watched in wonder. Who is this dark figure? For certes, this matter of identity demands resolution.

Evening approaches, my friends, as the high afternoon fades -- Let us return to the well-lit hall, and gather at this table round, to pursue these elusive truths. It is Eastertide....Let the feast begin! But bring not the guards from their appointed places at the rampart walls...

Below: The "Call to Contest" for those who might be just now taking their seat at the table.
__________________

A Call To Contest.......
Off in the distance, atop a the hill beyond our castle walls.......what is this visage? Who is this fearful rider who canters in line with the other Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse --

Y2K
Asian Contagion
Overvalued Stocks
Euro Introduction

?

He indeed is a black knight, Gandalf, and the menacing heraldry of his armour adds an even more frightening aspect.
And what his presence portends for all is the subject of this contest.

All the Knights and Ladies are called to a contest of wits and discourse as we gather 'round this table for the equinox -- the feasts of rebirth and renewal.

The contest is this: To identify this Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse and in thirty words or more tell us why he appears so threatening.

.........After thinking about it overnight, each knight or lady gets one post on the subject, instead of unlimited tries. Those who have already posted their identification of this ghostly visage can post again or re-post their first try.........

The winning poster will not only identify this Fifth Horseman, he or she will offer the best post as to why. The winning poster will receive a glittering one-tenth ounce Philharmonic gold coin. There will be three runners-up each receiving the hard to come by U.S. Silver Eagle.

Please indicate Fifth Horseman posts with stars *****in the subject box.

To make it interesting, we add another one tenth ounce gold prize, for the individual who comes nearest the closing price of gold on the **June
contract** Friday, April 9, 1999.

***This is a change from the original call to contest prompted by the fact that MRCI is not posting the June contract. This will make it easier for all to follow.
Those who have already posted prices should make a new post with a new price. Please be aware of what others have posted as a price. The first one to claim a price is the one who owns it.

Please indicate your price with number signs #########
in the subject box.

Lastly, all who post for the first time will receive a free book: Either the ABCs of Gold Investing or In the Footstep of Giants (Another's early posts). Your choice. Just post and then e-mail us with your request.

Gandalf the White

(04/04/1999; 14:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4218)

More -- TOMCAT

No answers yet, TOMCAT --- BUT lots more input to think about ! Did you see the post about the two US Oils meeting with the Saudi Prince TODAY. Well here is another interesting item to think about. This is "VERY INTERESTING", as some little guy in the bushes used to say.
---
Sunday April 4, 2:55 pm Eastern Time
France's Elf signs Iran oilfield deal
PARIS, April 4 (Reuters) - A consortium led by French oil giant Elf Aquitaine and Canada's Bow Valley Energy Ltd. has
signed an agreement with the National Iranian Oil Co. to develop the offshore Balal oilfield, Elf said on Sunday. It said the overall cost of the project was estimated at $300 million. ``First oil from Balal of around 40,000 barrels a day is planned for 2001,'' it said in a statement.
The United States has frowned on French oil investments in Iran in the past, but Washington has refraining from applying sanctions envisaged in U.S. legislation aimed at discouraging companies from doing business with Libya and Iran. A French foreign ministry spokesman said France does not recognise the legality of the extra-territorial reach of the U.S. legislation. ``Elf is free to sign contracts in Iran if it wants. It's a commercial decision,'' the spokesman said. Elf said the Balal field lies 100 km south of Lavan Island in the Gulf at a depth of 70 metres and has recoverable reserves estimated at 100 million barrels of good quality oil. ``The contract is of a buy-back nature, which provides for the consortium to be reimbursed and paid in the form of crude oil from the field,'' it said, adding the term of the contract was about six years. == Reuters Limited
--- Stolen from the web by Hobbits that wish to know -- WHAT is HAPPENING ??? READ "1984" anyone ? Looks as IF we are headed toward Company OIL --- Is Company Electricity and Company FOOD soon to raise their heads ?
<;-)

YGM

(04/04/1999; 14:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4219)

#####$292.20#####

I'll go for a long shot!!

longj

(04/04/1999; 14:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4220)

*********Fifth Horseman----USURY DEBT*********

The fifth horseman is USURY DEBT...

The original four horseman are:

death

pestilence

famine

and america's favorite...war....

The fifth horseman is also a favorite of the American
landscape...It is known as debt....This
will be the consumer of all of the believers in the fiat system
and will reach beyond into the
bond and securities markets to snatch affluent investors into
the paper inferno.....Disguised
with fiat currency systems this invader fosters a sense of well
being and then hits the carrier
suddenly, and with warning.....but the carrier is already too
far addicted to stop their usury
ways. This horseman will produce hunger like PESTILENCE and
FAMINE. USURY DEBT
will provide the DEATH of the FIAT system now held in esteem.
Yes, debt will prove more
devastating than WAR. The best armor that can protect us is real
money, an armor plate of
GOLD or platinum, IMHO.

The Stranger

(04/04/1999; 14:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4221)

ET and Russia

ET- I don't know why you and I always come down at odds on things... different life experiences, perhaps. I respect your point of view about Kosovo. I, myself, wonder how high a price Americans should be asked to pay to defend those who have somehow neglected their own best interests. Nonetheless, I stick by everything I said in my previous post. I will not bore the table by pursuing this issue into one of Peter's ever tightening circles that leads you know where.

I must say, however, that many, many, MANY Americans have given their lives in foreign wars. If some consider that American imperialism, then so be it. But I think I shall wait until I actually see evidence of an emperor before calling it so.

Russia- the mouse that roared!

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 14:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4222)

Purposes for the war in Serbia

Here are some possible purposes for the war in Serbia: 1. To condition our people and other nations to the a new NATO force that is based on agression rather than defense.
2. To firm up the command hierarchy within the NATO countries; follow the US or collapse NATO.
3. To assure that the NATO countries stay within NATO. Now they have some reasons to stay in NATO; before Serbia
NATO's purpose was vague and weak.
4. To keep the sheeple in the "Strike out at the bad guys" frame of mind. Have you noticed that very few people question the integrity of our warlike actions. 5. To bring conflict closer to home! The closer to home war is, the more threat there is. The more threat, the more reason to "temporarily" restrict freedoms.
6. The UN experiment did not result in a global police force. Finally, after all of these years, the beginning of such a police force exists. Will it be challenged?

I suspect that the CBs and oil powers of the NATO countries are much closer than many have heretofore thought. Will a more tightly bound NATO couple the euro to the dollar more?

Aragorn III

(04/04/1999; 14:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4223)

An appropriate pause

*****Peter Asher (4/3/99; 19:36:07MDT - Msg ID:4173)
*****"The Final Battle"; Led by the ### 5th Horseman, OIL ###

A remarkable post, Peter. You wove the threads together to form a tapestry worthy of any king's hall. Your words are always read with keen interest, and your presence here is a treat.

beesting--"...raise the price of Gold to astronomical heights, which is what I thought was the goal of all Gold bugs."
Actually, my right honorable friend, the proper goldbug of history was in support of the hard money gold standard. I also believe that the term goldbug came to be used in a disparaging manner. That is why I prefer to use the term Goldheart to describe my position and those who share it. As before, a high dollar-price is not my concern as is the return of proper valuation of gold versus all things. With gold as savings, the dollar price is not so important if you find yourself in Bolivia, Belarus, or Borneo. Its relative valuation is everything.

Aristotle--"Gold is on the opposite end of the lever from fiat monies. Take heart in this...the fulcrum is very, VERY near to the end whereon sit the dollars. It takes a lot of dollars, and a lot of confidence, and a lot of constant attention in the "care and feeding" of a fiat money to maintain the balance with a little bit of Gold. Gold has the natural and inherent leverage. The experiment is coming to an end, the white lab-coats are coming off, the battle has been lost. It is just that the people don't know it yet. The markets operate on momentum, and those who continue to sell Gold that they have for paper, or worse, short-sell Gold that they don't have in the expectation that all is as before, they are in for a rude surprise."

Important thoughts that I could not state with near the clarity as you have.

Goldfly--"I've been saying for years the the USA has been getting along on it's reputation. The current leadership in DC has squandered it."

Hello, old friend. Interestingly, the very same could be said for the dollar itself. Past abuses have taken the good life it once had, and inertia keeps the corpse in motion as we see it today. It will not be pleasant to see it hit the wall. Fortunately, gold allows one an early exit from the inevitable unpleasantries.

(04/04/1999; 15:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4224)

Stranger

Hey Stranger - if everyone agreed all the time it would be a boring forum, eh? Having lost a friend and a family member to these 'wars' I suppose I do take a very hard look at the reasons and motives behind these conflicts. I'm of the Viet Nam age and undoubtedly that war had a huge influence on me and my view of governments. We'll see how this whole thing plays itself out. Someone mentioned in another post that this is Clinton's war. I don't think Clinton does anything he's not told to do. Keep an open mind Mr. Stranger.

Yours in neverending disagreement,

ET

Heh-Heh. Happy Easter.

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 15:27:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4225)

Aragorn III

Your kind words are most appreciated, as I regard you as our most exacting post critic. No flub ever seems to escape your eagle eye as you gaze down from the parapets of Minas Tirath.

(04/04/1999; 15:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4226)

YGM

Hey YGM - thanks for the link. It really makes you want to go out and purchase some banking stocks doesn't it? Who'd a thought we would ever see this level of speculation? No wonder the markets trade so strangely these days.

ET

YGM

(04/04/1999; 15:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4227)

Stong Arguement For Reasons or Existence of "Manipulation"

http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htmIn a Nutshell/ 2nd Q 1998

Percent of Capital Exposure to Risk Based Capital. (Banks)
J.P. Morgan-----------728%
Bankers Trust--------373%
Chase--------------------334%
CitiBank-----------------194%
1st Chicago------------175%

**If Chase or JPM lost approx. 10% in their Deriv Exposure
they're Bankrupt!! Fini-Toast-History!

**JPM owns controling Share of Fed Reserve (private sh.)

**This info and more will give those who say there is no
manipulation in the markets some new light to work in!

**Anyone who researches this type of info should realize
why "LTCM" was bailed out. The Dow and all other Hedge
Funds were at risk if LTCM went down.---YGM.

YGM

(04/04/1999; 15:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4228)

@ ET

The previous link was for you mainly. W/ it you can compare from 4th Q 95 to 4th Q 98.

YGM

(04/04/1999; 15:59:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4229)

Clairification (me again!!)

I'd just like to clarify a point here. Gata is NOTjust comprised of a bunch of Gold Share owners who are PO'd at prices of their stock. Also involved are Miners who unlike those on the farms (who are at least getting subsidies for the marketing mistakes and manipulation of the goods they
produce) are recieving naught but long unemployment
lines. GATA serves all facets of the Gold Industry except
those doing the suspected manipulation!!--YGM.

SteveH

(04/04/1999; 16:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4230)

Fifth Horseman

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

Bonds and week dollars. As the dust first appears on the edge of our
time, the horsemen's presence is first seen. First they appear as one
but soon it is clear that not one, not two, but five horsemen
approach. On the back of the fifth horse is one rider but I see that
she, it is a horsewomen, caries a heavy satchel. I can see them with
my Leica binoculars. Their capes fly in the wind of the ride bouncing
and flying, gravity and wind in slow motion. The fifth horse's
nostrils flare more than usual because of the extra weight. I can't
see what it is she might be carrying. Wait, I seen green paper
escaping into the dusty cyclones of wind and capes. As the horses pass
peasants and noblemen no one seems to bend over to see the eschewing
debris. But I am curious and afraid. I want to know what she carries
and why these horsemen and one horsewomen come into my home and what
their portage is. Now they are so close that I put my Leica's down and
I back up facing the road where they will soon pass. I keep backing
until my back touches a tree, I crouch and move behind the tree low to
see but hopefully not be seen by this ominous charge of five. They
swiftly pass in a cloud of thundering hooves and flying divots of dirt
and dust. Now I see the green debris is from a bag labeled US Dollars
and a cape with the moniker 'Bond' emblazoned in yellow thread and I
finally understand who these horsemen and one horsewomen are. They are
returning home and with them comes fear and change. The fifth horse
and its rider carry back dollars that have been in other countries. I
pick one up and look at it. It is one-hundred dollar bill but I
quickly loose it from my fist as I know that by the time I spend this
dollar it will have no value. For when these horsemen and one
horsewomen arrive at tales end all dollars will have returned to an
unwelcome home. I pick up the Leica to my eyes and watch them ride to
the distant horizon beyond which their destination lies. The dollars
carried home will be of little value. They carry the risk of a rising
bond and falling dollar returning to a home that doesn't really
welcome them back.
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Julia

(04/04/1999; 16:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4231)

Testing, MK, ANOTHER and FOA, All

MK - Hi! Just trying out my new password. Couldn't turn down the opportunity to try to figure out the 5th horseman. More later. You've made some nice changes to the Forum since I posted last. I like being able to read the whole day's postings at one time now. And the link feature is great. Thanks for being there for us. Still snowed in? Sounds wonderful to me. It's 85 degrees here.

All - Brave Knights and Ladies! Keep up the good fight. Busyness has prevented me from writing here in a long time but I've been reading your wonderful posts. As has been the spirit of this Round Table since I've been coming here, you speak words from great thoughts. I see there are many new thinkers here too. We should not fear Alzheimer's with the depth of brain wave exercises we do at this table, yes? Hey, maybe we can patent some way to harness all these brain waves for powering our lives during Y2K?

ANOTHER and FOA - I see you came back for awhile. Sorry I missed you. Hope you will write again soon. I soak up the thoughts from your wonderful spirits and minds like a sea sponge and mix them with my own only to release them into my life to see where they lead me. I love this road we travel together watching gold.....and oil, yes?

Thank you all. I'll post more later. Julia

Aristotle

(04/04/1999; 17:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4232)

Hello Yukon Gold Miner

I just tuned in and your post was the first thing I saw. A quick scan of the preceeding posts supports my suspicion that your comments are probably directed toward a couple of my posts yesterday and earlier.

Your comparison of gold miners with farmers and their subsidies is a great addition to the discussion. It provides yet another level to my limited example of the smoker vs. the tobacco industry. I hope you are not frustrated with my earlier comments, because as they were written I did not envision an interpretation considerably at odds with what you've recently stated. Simply put, I wondered what would become of manipulation arguements when the market made its eventual turnaround. Wouldn't the case dissolve, as manipulation would not facilitate anything approaching natural market cycles to the upside? Given an 8-year bull market in stocks, and a 19-year bear market in gold, it is very easy to beleive in good faith that patience has allowed a clinical diagnosis of manipulation, when in fact 'hastiness' has won the day.

Back to the farmer comment. In my post I allowed for the notion of some form of recompense for the producers that clearly were put on the losing side of the equation when the world governments embarked on their vigilant campaign to instill a system of fiat currency. However, I don't think that government subsidies are the right answer. They go against the grain of everything that Gold stands for. What good is Gold that is "underwritten" by a government handout? The solution is to detatch from the dollar altogether. Show it for what it is--an emperor with no clothes. Rather than borrowing cash from a bank for startup costs, and then forward-selling the requisite amount of future production to "collateralize" the loan, use another approach. Contract directly with Caterpillar and others for the necessary equipment in exchange for future payment directly in Gold. In essence, they become partners or shareholders in the mining company. Cut the banks directly out of the picture. Sovereign nations all hold Gold in their treasuries, so why not also sovereign companies and sovereign individuals? ---Aristotle

Camel

(04/04/1999; 17:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4233)

***********

The fifth Horseman rides a chariot of fire. He has set the earth on fire and a great pall of smoke hangs over the land.He has hurled his storms against the southern seas.He has smashed the ice like little bits of glass crushed by a small boy.He has altered the seasons from their appointed course. He has poisened the seas and let the waters flow over the dry land.

The last century has been the warmest in recorded history reversing a one thousand year cooling trend.Eight of the ten warmest years in recorded history have occured in the last decade. Temperatures have spiked to record highs all over the globe setting off vast fires in Borneo, Brazil, Mexico and Florida that could not be put out.

Both the North and South Poles are melting raising the specter of increasing sea levals and coastal flooding around the world. In 1995 the Larson Ice Shelf at the South pole collapsed and disappeared releasing a 2500 sq. mile. iceberg, about the size of Delaware. Computer modeling suggests that the larger Larson B Ice Shelf will collapse in 1999.

Researchers from the European Alps to Greenland, from the Arctic to thr Antarctic report rapidly decreasing glaciation,reduced ice core deapths, and dininished ice shelf formation around the poles.Melting of the tundra in Canada and Siberia threaten to release vast additional quantities of CO2.

Expansion of the volume of the oceans due to increasing temperatures further threaten to raise sea levals potentially fooding world coastlines which are the most heavily populated and heavily insured areas of the globe causing a vast economic catastrophy.

Worldwide weather conditions exhibit extreem volitility and insurance companies report a tripling of weather related insurance claims in the last decade. Munich Re which moniters insurance claims worldwide reports 50,000 deaths and 90 billion property damage in 1998 from weather related catastrophy.

Changing reagonal weather patterns threaten to return dust bowl conditions to the midwestern United States and push prime agricultural areas northward into Canada.

Highly sensitive indicator species such as coral reefs are dieing at an alarming rate and migration of species from their traditional range is common.

Increasing water temperatures around the coastlines threaten to unleash a wide range of microbial disease affecting both human and aquatic species.

The world consumes about 72 million barrels of oil a day releasing vast quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere. These flows continue completely unabated with volumes predicted to increase over the coming decades

The fifth Horseman is climate change and ecological collapse caused by global warming.

I don't have a background in finance but my personal opinion is that the price of gold won't increase dramatically untill things get so bad that the general public thinks that gold is the best way to preserve their wealth over a 10 or 25 year period of social upheaval and catastrophy.

If such a thing ever did to come to pass I expect most everyone here would gladly give up all their gold to have things return to the way they are today.

USAGOLD

(04/04/1999; 17:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4234)

Welcome back....

Julia, who some of the knigts and ladies remember as Yellowbird (I hope I haven't broken a confidence.)....Ye of the lyric and thoughtful posts of yore. I was hoping you would decide to return to your esteemed seat at this table. I look forward to your interpretation of this Fifth Horseman. Yes, Another and FOA were here for a day or two. They promise to be back in April -- this time we hope for an extended stay. The snow was a wet, spring visitor that soon fled. Everything's turning green in a hurry here in east Denver. Hope you decide to stay for awhile this time.

USAGOLD

(04/04/1999; 17:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4235)

First Time Posters....

We have had quite a few first time posters this weekend. I want to remind our first time posters to e-mail us their book selection and we will get it out to you.

David Linkley

(04/04/1999; 17:53:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4236)

US Diverts Jets From Iraq to Europe

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-US-Iraq.html"U.S. planes did not fly over the northern ``no fly'' zone Sunday, the 15th straight day of no flights."

Linkley comment: Do mice play while the cat's away?

turbohawg

(04/04/1999; 17:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4237)

KYC beast not dead yet

PRIVACY NEWS UPDATE #3
--------------------------------
THANK YOU AGAIN!
for supporting our ongoing effort
to stop "Know Your Customer".
--------------------------------
You are receiving this update because you registered at the
DefendYourPrivacy.com web site. We strive to respect your time, and are planning no more than one brief update per week. However, if you do not want to receive further updates, please use the unsubscribe directions at the end of this message.
--------------------------------

IN THIS UPDATE:

1) FDIC & other agencies withdraw Know Your Customer rule --
but KYC lives on in the Bank Secrecy Act
2) Assistant Director of Federal Reserve Board says KYC is NOT dead
3) Flood of e-mail credited with stopping Know Your Customer
4) New online petition being launched to repeal existing
Know Your Customer requirements
5) Quote of the week

--------------------------------

Here's what's going on in the fight against "Know Your Customer" regulations:

1) FDIC & other agencies withdraw Know Your Customer rule --
but KYC lives on in the Bank Secrecy Act

As anticipated, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (the "Agencies") officially voted on March 23, 1999 to withdraw their proposed Know Your Customer rule. This means that, thanks to your help, we have won Round One of the fight.

However, in a statement released after the meeting, the Agencies reaffirmed their "...long-standing support for the anti-money laudering provisions of the Bank Secrecy Act."

As it turns out, the Bank Secrecy Act compliance manual of the Federal Reserve still requires banks to implement a Know Your Customer program, even though the new KYC regulation has been withdrawn. (Check out the "spy manual" on their web site, http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/SupManual/)

According to a recent survey by the American Bankers Association, over 88 percent of US banks already have Know Your Customer policies in place. In early March, the ABA called on regulators to not only withdraw the proposed
Know Your Customer rule, but to dismantle the existing requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act as well.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) has introduced HR 518, The Bank Secrecy Sunset Act, which would repeal the existing Bank Secrecy Act reporting requirements that led to Know Your Customer. (See #4 below.)

2) Assistant Director of Federal Reserve Board says
Know Your Customer is NOT dead.

A banker who attended the Mid Atlantic Compliance Conference March 18-19 reported the following comments by Richard Small, Assistant Director of the Federal Reserve System, at a session on KYC:

"Is Know Your Customer dead? No, I don't think it is dead. Do I think there will be a regulation? No. I would like to develop some broad based guidance [but] no one is going to let me talk about it for six months."

Small went on to say that they would have to repackage it differently, such as "Enhanced guidance for reporting suspicious activity." He said they'll have to be careful how they re-package it, saying, "It's a marketing issue." He indicated that any future proposal would not be called "Know
Your Customer" and would not use the phrase "customer profiling."

3) Flood of e-mail credited with stopping Know Your Customer

"The FDIC's chairman, Donna Tanoue, said the huge volume of e-mail drove the decision to withdraw the [KYC] proposal," reported Rebecca Fairley Raney of the New York Times in a March 24, 1999 story (please see http://DefendYourPrivacy.com/nyt_2.htm). This suggests that the influence of e-mail on public policy decisions is growing. Some other quotes from the article:

"It's important to note that a number of these e-mails were customized." Tanoue said. "They came from the heart."

"Typically the comments we hear are packaged in Washington -- and these [e-mail comments] came from all over America," said Steve Katsanos, a spokesman for the FDIC. "We think it's pretty neat," he said of the Internet-based interaction. "You might well count on this being a standard procedure."

"The e-mail and the traffic to the FDIC's Web site was driven through media reports on the issue in traditional media and through an online advocacy campaign [http://www.DefendYourPrivacy.com] sponsored by the Libertarian Party."

"Ultimately ... people used the party's advocacy site to send 171,000 comments to the FDIC -- about 83% of the e-mail that was sent."

The success of this cyber-campaign has also been noted in articles and editorials in other major print publications such as The Washington Post, The Chicago Sun-Times, the Kansas City Star and The Arizona Republic as well as in leading online publications such as WorldNetDaily.com,
Wired.com and CBS.MarketWatch.com. Visit the Media Coverage page at http://www.DefendYourPrivacy.com for links to these and other articles about the campaign and Know Your Customer.

4) New online petition being launched to repeal existing
Know Your Customer requirements

DefendYourPrivacy.com is preparing to launch a new online petition to repeal existing Know Your Customer requirements. The petition will be directed to individual members of Congress and will ask them to co-sponsor the Know Your Customer Sunset Act (HR 516) and the Bank Secrecy Sunset Act
(HR 518). HR 516 already has over 50 co-sponsors.

Passage of these bills would repeal all existing Know Your Customer reporting requirements, and prevent similar regulations from being imposed in the future. For more information on both bills, check out our new
"Legislation" page at http://www.DefendYourPrivacy.com.

An announcement and pass-along message for friends and family will be sent out as soon as the petition page is up and running, which will probably be in about a week.

5) Quote of the week - Editorial, Indianapolis Star

"That such a rule [KYC] would even have been proposed should be of great concern to every freedom-loving American.

"These are the tactics employed in socialist countries such as China and the old Soviet Union where the denial of personal privacy, individual property and freedom of speech are fundamental tools for the economic and political control of large captive populations.

"Fortunately, many Americans were outraged at this proposal. Much of the credit must go the the Libertarians. Of some 253,000 e-mail messages, letters, and faxes to the FDIC, more than 170,000 were ... generated by the party's DefendYourPrivacy.com Web site."

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 18:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4238)

Camel

I was wondering when that subject would make it to the Round Table. On the "things to do if I can' list, I have contacting someone I know who spent several months on a scientific research camp on the southern ice about 12 years ago. I want to get a trustworthy 'take' on a story I read a few months back, that a piece of that ice mass may come loose which would raise the ocean either 20 feet or 20 meters, I'm not sure which. When I first read it I thought it said 20 centimeters and then did a double take. It seemed like a story that would have had a lot of follow through, but it just disappeared .

Contemplating the effect of such an event makes most of what we discuss here pale by comparison. Think of how many coastal metropolises rest on land less than 20 feet and ,God forbid 60 feet, above sea level

YGM

(04/04/1999; 18:12:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4239)

Aristotle--

No my fellow Gold believer we're not at odds. Your posts are not taken wrong but it did remind me that I've heard it
said occasionaly that it's all (gata) about whining gold
stock owners so your thoughts just inspired a little
bit of clarification for those that may think along this vein.
Regards: YGM
ps: no subsidizing this miner just give us back free and
unfettered markets. Go Gold.

Aragorn III

(04/04/1999; 18:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4240)

SteveH and Peter Asher

SteveH--"The dollars carried home will be of little value. They carry the risk of a rising bond and falling dollar returning to a home that doesn't really welcome them back."

...returning to a home that doesn't really welcome them back... Bravo. As striking as this thought may be to some, as preposterous as it might seem, you, Good Sir, have correctly forecast the future with brevity and elegance.

Perhaps you (and all others) would please lend your capable minds to this challenge. I ask for assistance in my tutorage to others. I am confident you have all heard the important distinction of gold--"Gold is the only currency that is not simultaneously someone else's liability." I have been at a loss to represent that sentiment in other words more easily grasped by impatient persons. And what do we say to the certain protests of the likes of Sirs Sadus and Aristotle who would be quick to point out they they owe no servitude to any dollar. Perhaps the answer is not in the gold they hold, but in owing no debt? Then couldn't we all do without gold, and continue to hold dollars as our Servants rather than Masters--simply by avoiding debt? No! Because the dollar comes to life when borrowed as a debt owed in the future. The value in the dollar is only found in the dutiful fulfilment of the contract to deliver future dollars.

Sir Searching said presciently, "Russia can do more damage to us and the West without even firing a shot. All they have to do is to come out publicly and say they will not pay back any of the loans they owe if we continue with the war. That would reverse the presure from them to the rest of us. Remember their economy is gone for all practical purposes so such a move can't hurt them much more but it sure could create havic with the world financial markets."

Perhaps this is where we may find the answer I seek. Gold is the only currency whose value does not rely upon the precarious hope that debt-payment contracts are consistently honored the world over. Gold is not weakened by any number of defaults or bankruptcies.

By the way, Russia must start from square one, with a return to the economic fundamentals and a gold standard. They tried to "hit the ground running". This is not possible when the basic tools of capitalism, notably a currency that is in demand as a valuable "commodity". If the currency does not work, the economy does not work, and the people need not work. I have posted in the past that a viable fiat currency cannot happen overnight. "Square one" (and there is no shame staying there) is a gold standard currency.

Peter, be assured that my "exacting...eagle eye" as you suggest is always the best intentioned...the eye of an engineer watching as a foundation is carefully built upon which all else will stand. Brick by brick all is kept firm through discussion and clarification. We are all bricklayers, supervisors, and engineers...Knights of this fine Round Table.

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 18:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4241)

Gandalf the White and Town Crier

Thanks for both of your posts on oil.

As we get closer to year 2000 many countries and oil producers will realize that they need help in remediation; especially with embedded systems. There will be great leverage gained by the y2k compliant oil companies who have large y2k medic teams ready to be airlifted to the afflicted oil producers.

In 2000, the border tensions will be high and it might not be easy to send in teams of engineers without troops to accompany them. The price to pay might be much more than the cost of engineers.

When the digits hit the fan, the God of Technology, GOT, will bestow grace to the oil elite. Y2k will produce opportunities for compliant oil firms to make headway and expand their control amongst the non-compliant.

Note that in times gone by the last sentance above might have read. The great wave of sinning will produce opportunities for those that have been cleansed to make headway and expand their control amongst the unclean.

Aragorn III

(04/04/1999; 18:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4242)

Sir Tomcat

Your chair for too long sat vacant. I am pleased to see it now filled.

TownCrier

(04/04/1999; 18:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4243)

*** READ THIS *** Kazak State Won't Support Currency

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990404/kazakstan__1.htmlKazakstan's Prime Minister Nurlan Balgenbayev announced on national tv today that (just like Ecuador not long ago) the currency would be allowed to float.
``That's why we are making this responsible statement, being aware of (the impact of) our action and hoping to ... increase our gold and currency reserves.''
(Aragorn--this is your "lightning in the night," coupled with "moving to square one." Amazing!)

(04/04/1999; 19:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4244)

Aragorn

Hey Aragorn - sounds to me like you've summed it up well.

'Gold is the only currency whose value does
not rely upon the precarious hope that debt-payment contracts are consistently honored the world
over. Gold is not weakened by any number of defaults or bankruptcies.'

The problem with trying to explain the monetary system to others is this concept that currency today is simply debt. It is a difficult thing for most to grasp. I've found the best way to explain the system to others is to separate the real economy from the monetary system. I've always started out with this question; what is real and what is perceived to be real? From this context, it becomes clear to most how the system works. Most people I've encountered believed that things were much more complicated than they actually are. They quickly realize debt is not the way to go either privately or publically.

ET

Richard, Oregon

(04/04/1999; 19:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4245)

Peter A & JA

Peter A - Thanks for the input on the internet link and then viewing the linked page. While mine did not work that way, it reminded me of why. My son loaded a beta version of MS-IE and that was obviously one of the many bugs, I also could not block text to copy to a word processer or print more than 11 pages. Soo. . . . I downloaded the latest from MS and bang, it works great. Thanks to MK for this nice feature. I'll forward my email address to MK if you'd like to communicate directly about getting together sometime.

JA - Peter's Robin advice regarding Super Enzymes sounds great to me also. I'll have to find a source. But, I have used Pro-Biotics Acidophilus for some time and, with continous digestive problems, one capsule a day works great. Maybe Robin could comment on this product.

beesting

(04/04/1999; 20:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4246)

To Aragorn III and Aristotle,also an extra beesting tidbit.

Aragorn III post# 4223; As usual your use of the proper terminology in the English language is highly appreciated. I will henceforth delete Goldbug from my vocabulary and use Goldheart instead,and the "Hard Money Gold Standard" would lead to,"Proper Valuation of Gold Versus All Things." Which leads to my,"SECONDING OF THE MOTION" made by SIR Aristotle post #4232:
Sovereign nations all hold Gold in their treasuries'so why not also soverign companies and sovereign individuals. GREAT LINE!!!

Tidbit-April 15th is fast approaching and here in the U.S. that date is the deadline for filing income taxes.Something unheard of before 1913. The fiat money collected by taxation is responsible for all the good things being accomplished by the U.S. Government(you make your own list) and all the bad things being accomplished by the U.S. Government(again you make the list)
Lets look at our own lists and see if the good things outweigh the bad things.
If the majority of taxpayers feel the good things do outweigh the bad things than it should be life as usual in the good old U.S.A.
If on the other hand the majority of taxpayers feel the bad things outweigh the good things,and that thought gains momentum----WATCH OUT!!!!----Taxation pays for all U.S.Government expenditures worldwide and is supposed to be governed by the people of the U.S. thru the electoral process.

Since this weekend is a little off the subject of Gold I would like to toss a potential ignition of an Apocalyptical event on the table.

Taxpayers be allowed to designate where their tax money is spent.Isn't it the taxpayers money until it is spent anyway? Combine this thought with Aragorn III's Hard Money Gold Standard,and think long and hard about it.........beesting

turbohawg

(04/04/1999; 20:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4247)

Aragorn

As one who can empathize with your challenge, I've found one way to make inroads at helping others understand the nature of our money is to explain that our govt, in order to spend money it doesn't have, sells bonds. Many of those bonds are sold to the Fed, which simply prints up the money to buy them (as you know). This point almost invariably leads to the question: "But isn't that counterfeiting ??" When that question is asked, a light bulb has come on ... the value of counterfeit money is intuitive to all.

And that point leads to the next point. How are those bonds guaranteed ?? By the income tax ... by our future earnings ... as one friend remarked,"they've got a lien on my future, on my kid's future."

While these points don't automatically make the case for gold, they help get from here to there. Hope this helps.

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 20:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4248)

(No Subject)

Aragorn III
Sir Aragorn, I am honored at your welcome. May I acknowledge you with a brevity.

Long ago a beautiful woman of station challenged a common-man about his love for gold. In his discomfort he rushed to say that the kings money was like a handsome but untrustworthy man of the court who no woman could trust. He told her that gold was like a man who was true to his heart and dedicated to only one woman.

She paused. Surprised by his answer, she asked him to tell her more. He went on to say that he struggled to be an honest man and that gold reminded him of a purity. A purity he saw in his father who had little but was true to his word and family. He hoped to live up to the honor of his father's name.

She then told him that she had been searching for a man of wealth and had just found one. Disappointed the youth asked who the man of good fortune might be. She smiled and in search for the right words, she looked away.

Failing to find the right words, she reached for his hand.

Julia

(04/04/1999; 20:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4249)

***** The 5th Horseman

As the golden light rises in the east, growing hotter in its climb over the distant hill, five horses and their masters appear at the peak, pausing there to survey the world . The Few , from below, recognize four of them as Y2K, Asian Contagion, Overvalued Stocks and Euro Introduction. But the fifth remains a mystery.

The fearless five converge on the hill from different directions, meeting curiously at the same time. There is no leader among them, no general, no master plan. But as with the right combination of elements, the wind blows into a hurricane reaking havok in the world, so these warriors gather more power as they converge and ride together. When they are through, no one will be left untouched by their power.

Silently, they canter together down the hill.
Only The Few below see all five dark silhouettes pressed against the spectacular powerful array of warmth and life behind them. They call out to others, pointing to the approaching figures. But their voices are mocked and the people pay no attention. "We're happy," they say," Leave us alone with your visions."

All but The Few are blinded by the "menacing heraldry" of the mysterious black knight's armour as he rides toward the world. His armour is polished to the reflection of a mirror and he rides with pagentry and ceremony . His presence intoxicates all but The Few so that the people ignore the dangers posed by the other four. He is a pompous assassin who mesmerizes his victims and himself with immitations of prosperity and while the people are blinded by the reflection of the golden sun in his armour, he steals their wealth. All the while they celebrate, drunken on greed and lust.

As he rides closer,TheFew recognize his snout sticking out from under the armour that hides him. They become suspicious and begin to question him. But quickly, he sheds his shiny armour and rolls into a ball for protection.

The Few point to him and cry out in one voice, "It's the Hedgehog. The creature is bailing out. Kill him!!!!" But the spines are many and sharp. Even though he loses a few , he is well protected and soon is able to crawl away and hide in the hedge where he and others like him conspire to steal again.

The fifth horseman is hedging.

This was great fun. Thank you.
Julia

Julia

(04/04/1999; 20:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4250)

***** The 5th Horseman

Julia

(04/04/1999; 20:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4251)

***** The 5th Horseman

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 20:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4252)

Aragorn

AS I recall. you missed the contest weekend of Feb 13-17. In post # 2400 I stated:

Another way to say this is that, Gold is money bought and paid for, whereas paper money is not yet redeemed. Or, paper money acknowledges that earnings have been created, whereas Gold represents the conversion of those earnings to real (storable) value.

Earnings that have been created but not yet redeemed are a debt from society to the individual. When he has converted that debt to gold, he now has that most liquid of all assets, precious money metal; which will survive any default of the society he earned his credit from.

I wish I could condense all this into a single cohesive statement, but it does, I think, cover the concept.

PS: I'm not refering here to the 'counterfeit' unearned paper money that gets loaned into existence.

backlash

(04/04/1999; 20:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4253)

Like Minds and Fantastic Forum !

JA, my friend and fellow Knight, we do indeed and in fact think much alike. Eerily so, I might add. Does this not make twice that we have posted the same price guestimate without any collaboration? (Or was it ET last time? I forget, age I guess). Even more amazing is the fact that I, too, contemplated the same two adversaries that you chose between. Inflation or War. Your case for War as the Fifth Horseman was well presented and better than what I would have done. Good Luck !

However, as you noted, War will eventually generate inflation for the winner. Unstated was deflation for the looser. What is scary is that they could be vice-versa under the right circumstances.

Please post another guesstimate for the June Au price before the deadline. I think that by the rules, since I was first, I cannot choose a different figure.

FANTASTIC FORUM

Ahhh ! Knights Gandolf the White, Peter Asher, Goldfly, and beesting your eloquence in presenting your postings leave me in complete awe. Even without a bit of the Goldheart within me, it would be nigh well impossible to leave my seat at this table because of your fantastic presentations. As an engineer, writing is not one of the R's taught in school. Strictly for a study in writing, you make this forum par excellence. Though there are many more Knights outstanding in their writings, you set us all the highest standard. Thank you.

Lest we forget, MK sits at the head of the table when it comes to the most clearly presented thoughts (though there are quite a few other Knights exceedingly close behind). Couple that with his thorough knowledge of our subject and his uncanny ability to cut through the chaff to get to the core of the issue and it is evident why MK is there. My thanks to you Mike for such apt leadership on this quest for truth and knowledge. The Knights of this table clearly exhibit a fantastic knowledge, harmoniously presented, as I have never seen before.

Fill the tankards to the brim and a rousing toast to all ! !

Best Wishes, bl

(04/04/1999; 20:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4254)

Aristotle

Hey Aristotle,

'Sovereign
nations all hold Gold in their treasuries, so why not also sovereign companies and sovereign individuals?'

Have you read Davidson and Rees-Mogg? Their latest (I think) is 'The Sovereign Individual'. Great book as well as their others. They have a lot of interesting thoughts about the future and how it might work out. Their first, 'Blood in the Streets', is one of my favorites.

ET

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 20:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4255)

Aragorn

Capitalizing AS was a typo, not an emphasis. I'm not 'getting it' about typing directly into the posting box

SteveH

(04/04/1999; 21:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4256)

What is meant by monetary jewellry?

http://fgmr.com/gold.htmSee subject question.

backlash

(04/04/1999; 21:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4257)

OPPS and Julia

Type 100 times:

GANDALF,GANDALF,. . . . . .
Sorry, but typing wasn't taught in engineering school either.

WELCOME JULIA

Your eloquence is pressing right up there with GANDALF (got it that time), Peter, et. al. . . WOW what a group!

Best Wishes, bl

SteveH

(04/04/1999; 21:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4258)

pass through

FRANKFURT, Germany (Reuters) - A former Federal Reserve governor was quoted Sunday as predicting a fall in U.S. share prices and saying a Dow Jones index of 6,000 to 7,000 points would be a realistic level.

``That depends of course on how rapidly and how low share prices fall. But I am convinced that the
consequences will be all the more harmless the sooner the bubble bursts. I think a Dow of 6,000 to
7,000 points represents a realistic level.''

Lindsey said that if the Dow fell by 3,000 or 4,000 points the paper assets of U.S. households would shrink by about 4 trillion dollars and consumption would weaken commensurately.

DOW fall precipitated by higher interest rates.

The importance of YGM's posting demanded the emphasis of a repost synopsis.

SteveH

(04/04/1999; 21:18:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4259)

site address

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19990404/bs/germany_lindsey_2.htmleom

SteveH

(04/04/1999; 21:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4260)

Great post at Kitco

must read:

Date: Sun Apr 04 1999 23:15
Chad C. Meek (JP , YOU ARE CORRECT) ID#344392:
Copyright � 1999 Chad C. Meek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Inflation is the least credible of all of the economic scenerios. It is just that NO-ONE wants to believe that the economic system would or for that matter be allowed to deflate because of the dire consequences to
EVERY FINANCIAL INSTITUTION.

We are already experiencing stealth hyperinflation that has already been occuring and transported to our Bond and Stock exchanges over the last 3 years. How else can anyone in their right minds explain Dow 10,000 ?

Even though Japan/Asia Inc. have shown a small bleep on their Economic EKG. They are a far cry from getting back to 50 % ( SO WHAT ) of what they lost from their historical highs. This is with Billions upon Billions of reinflation units/ tricks including 0% INTEREST as well as spending Coupons to jump start their economies.

The money creators have been busy since just after the Iraqi conflict when oil prices shot up the preceeding year. The fed has been busy
pushing on the string here in the U.S. by looking the other way on lending standards for their human resources ( THE COMMON MAN ) through the banks who have lent way beyond the common mans abilty to repay in a nomal life span.

A political fed who not only feared deflation from a natural Kondratieff cycle but an aberation in higher energy prices was faced with a delima. How were they going to keep wages realtive to allow sustained moderate growth without having labor and commodities prices get out of their CONTROL creating STAGFLATION.

The answer was first to Give EVERYONE UNDERSECURED CREDIT
instead of a raise. This allowed most everyone to buy a house for $ 100,000.00 dollars only instead of having to put down 20% or
$ 20,000.00 you could put down 5% or $ 5,000.00.This allowed
the common-man to purchase other products such as furniture and clothes. keeping him at the factory while expanding the over all economy
at a controled rate while recapturing some of this in taxes by closing most
every tax loop. Remember when you could deduct interest that you paid on your credit cards without having to put your house up as collateral?

Then "they" went on an Ad campain showing a beutiful Girl on a
Caribbean Beach and the message was Clear, YOU DONT NEED
TO EARN A VACATION YOU CHARGE IT "VISA"

This is why we first got friendly consumer credit counseling services,
easy credit solutions at the car delearships and now finally Pandemic Persoanl BANKRUPTCIES ( mainly chapter 7s ) which have increased exponetially over the last three years.

When people go bankrupt contrary to popular belief they dont go out and do it all over again. THEY CANT and these people get taken out of the consumer loop on a deeply psychological level and instead of buying Norstroms they buy Wall Mart. Instead of buying a Jeep Cherokee they buy a used Chrysler. All the consumer fluff is in the process of being shaken out How could they possible entice these people back into the retail loop?

The most fearful of deflation is the Federal Government including ALL Branches and its pseudo sub-branches Federal Reserve/Banking. There will be a mass exodus from the citys/industry to open lands and in the end communal subsistence living that was evident in the last depression.

All of this would equate to 80% less dependence on them which would
factor Government Employees into the economic blackhole.

The fear of DEFLATION NOT INFLATION is the Why" they" have voraciously attacked an archaic useless metal such as Gold which has been an worldwide historical standard of value since antiquity.

Debt instruments are the best of all worlds for 'them" because they hold and control value and POWER over those who own them. They can pay the small interest by issuing more paper ( PONZI ) . But when you buy a bond you are paying the full value UP FRONT. And besides if things got bad enough they could either print more fractional dollars to those who reedeem them or declare a "Banking Holiday" of Sorts and pay them some form of script. What would be the bondholders recourse?.
The government does not and WILL NEVER have the same CONTROL OVER GOLD and SILVER.

Corporate registered securities offer the government in my estimation 50%
of the same control as Bonds. This is the primary reason why we have
more Highly Controlled Regulated Mutual Funds then Actual Companys
trading. And this is why it is very difficult to get stocks trading as the government sub-regulators ie., Exchanges, Nasd, Sipic, and MUTUAL FUND Managers act as gatekeepers because they are under the magnifying glass of the Federal and State regulators.

One advantage that stocks still have over Bonds is that if you take physical posession of the stock certificate it still can be transfered very much like an open title to car. Bearer Bonds have not been around for
10 years.

I concede that there initailly could be a blip on inflation when redemptions begin but closely there after you will see that window closed
as all of that VALUE has already been captured and distributed in the various wars on poverty,vietnam, bosnia, serbia, asia, roads and dams
over the last 50 years.

Julia

(04/04/1999; 21:42:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4261)

Ooooops and backlash

Sorry. I see my post stuttered. I'll catch on I promise.

Thanks backlash. Such an esteemed place as you give to me...well, I don't know what to say except thank you. You and the others know sooooo much more than I will ever hope know about money and gold and economics. My life is blessed just to lurk here and enjoy your thoughts. Thanks again. Julia

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 21:44:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4262)

Richard

Robin said that the pro-biotic acidophilous is exactly the right item. (We use it extensively) But to qualify the data, that is for establishing intestinal flora for ideal digestion in that area. When you have a lower abdomen belly ache, its an intestinal problem. Heart-burn on the other hand is a stomach problem, and that's where the enzymes come in.

Meanwhile, let's move the nutritional discussion to private E- mail. I suppose we could say we all have the Yugoslavian Flu, but I don't think it's what Michael had in mind for the site.

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 21:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4263)

Michael

You have thrown down a mighty challenge to us in this contest as we must not only choose and describe a 5th horseman; we must analyze what you perceive that to be. Also, I can't help wondering if there is a hidden riddle here and you've got some surprise up your sleeve.

I hope you will at least tell us the 'punch line' at the stroke of midnight!

(04/04/1999; 22:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4264)

Peter Asher

I suspected you would be helpful in terms of herbal options and you did not disappoint I plan to take you up on the offer and contact Michael for your e-mail address.

(04/04/1999; 22:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4265)

Backlash

Your memory actually serves you well, this is the second time we picked the same price target. My first impulse was to change my price to 185.5, but then I thought that gives you very little room on the downside. There are some advantages to posting the price late.

YGM

(04/04/1999; 22:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4266)

The ULTIMATE PRIZE of the Wall St Manipulators:

http:www.islandnet.com/~ncfs/maisite/imf-16.htmAnd it's not all Gold!
This in fact is the pillaging of the worlds weakest CBs'
also being conducted in part by some of the Financial
Institutions I named earlier today in the Derivatives
Exposure posting. Excellent read ( & reread)------YGM.
**Financial Warfare**

(04/04/1999; 22:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4267)

Price of Gold ****285.10****

Michael, please consider the above my revised price for the contest since Backlash beat me to the 285.60 number.
Thanks

YGM

(04/04/1999; 22:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4268)

Grrrrr!

http://www.islandnet.com/~ncfs/maisite/imf-16.htmMust be time to call it a day. If you've never read this in
entirety all should IMHO--YGM

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 22:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4269)

The fifth horseman

The four horseman ride together well. Their arraogance and their false pride grows as they wreak more destruction.

Before they deal their final blows, the gods have told them that they are to join forces with another most destructive horseman. As they ride to meet their partner in death, they try to guess who he is.

Euro says. "I hear that he has brought riches to the poor, hospitals to the sick, and even guns to the weak. How can the gods put us with him?"

Y2k asserts, "Tis worse, oh brothers of evil. I know that he has brought the automatic-brain to all lands and empowered them with modern might. Tis my power that will destroy what he has wrought. How can we trust one of good will?"

Overvalued Stocks gives more of a clue. "For all the good you have heard of him I have been told that I could not live without him and that he is the source of my sustainance. If he so supports my evil bowels he must indeed be evil himself."

Asian Contagion sees a horseman on the horizon. He is surrounded by the common man and industrial magnates. They are all reaching to him. Their hands are held open and they are in want of more. What he has they cannot get enough of. They smile at him, speak kindly of him. He provides for them and as they leave they ridicule him and act as if they don't need him.

As the four horsman approch the crowd, they disperse in fear. Only the single horseman awaits them. The fift horseman.

"Aye my fellow warriors. Finally we join to bring forth our destruction. I am honored by the presence of such evil."

"We are here to join you on order of the Gods." says Euro. "However, we trust not of thee. We are fighting the very wealth you helped create. How is it that the gods have chosen you to join us. Prove your evil to us or be gone".

"Yes Euro, son of death. Says the fifth horsesman. "Yes, my friends to be. That, I may join you, please ride with me and see the destruction I have wrought"

The five move out across the globe. The fifth horsesman showe them a form of destruction that they never expected: Highly trained workers who were unemployed, filled wearhouses with rotting goods, idle factories, mountains of unmilled ore. The story is the same: surpluses everywhere.

"We see" said the four horseman, "but how did you create such wealth that would rot. And, oh evil brother, who may you be?

With a sense of pride the fifth horseman rises in his saddle and replied, "I, my evil brothers, am "The Fractional Reserve Lender".

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 22:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4270)

Sir ET, you asked:

"Have you read Davidson and Rees-Mogg? Their latest (I think) is 'The Sovereign Individual'. Great book as well as their others. They have a lot of interesting thoughts about the future and how it might work out. Their first, 'Blood in the Streets', is one of my favorites."

I agree. Davidson and Rees-Mogg are truly unique. In their first, 'Blood in the Streets' they go into the history of the use of force and how it has evolved. I feel that this principle plays a very important role in the future stability of the dollar.

In the 19th century weapon developments kept markets open for the British Empire. Today, global markets are being underminded by the very lending process that brought them into existance. Furthermore, small countries have real power to market and to harm. The force that NATO is trying to execute today might turn out to be a display of impotence and open the door to more conflict.

The value of gold will be proportional to the degree of border conflicts and trade barriers. The trade barriers are coming and with it, a rise in the POG.

Say you more on Davidson and Rees-Mogg?

jinx44

(04/04/1999; 23:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4271)

Tomcat--your 4222--Reasons for being in Kosova

hedbone 'nected to da nekboneAnother reason to be in the Balkans..............

This from a leftist perspective, but who can doubt the relevance of the information? When (and if) Kosovo is "liberated", who winds up in control of the mines? Anyone who might be making campaign contributions? Remember the movers and shakers of the NWO are just as amused by the rantings of the "leftists" as they are by the rantings of "right wing extremists" -- as long as the two blame each other and continue to fail recognize their common serfdom. ICE
******************************************************
Subject: The Serbian Cash Register A real Eye Opener

Via Workers World News Service Reprinted from the July 30, 1998 issue of Workers World newspaper
------------------------- Kosovo: 'The war is about the mines' By Sara Flounders

Wars are at root about economics, and the rapidly expanding war in Kosovo is no different. So why have millions of dollars in high-tech weapons suddenly become available to the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army by way of the U.S. and Germany?
A July 11 report by New York Times Balkans bureau chief Chris Hedges describes the KLA's new arsenal�"the latest anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft weapons. These weapons are shifting the balance of power toward the KLA, which is funded fully by outside sources, mostly from the U.S. and Germany.
The KLA is "fed by recruits, money and arms from outside Serbia," Hedges confirms. It has an "inexhaustible supply line," he reports.
"Rebel soldiers, in full uniform with the red and black patch of the Kosovo Liberation Army, pull thick wads of German marks from their pockets. There are also signs that the arrival of dozens of former professional soldiers as well as some mercenaries are turning the ragtag band into a viable military force of several thousand fighters." In fact, the KLA is primarily a mercenary army funded by the kind of shadowy sources that have long been associated with U.S. and German intelligence services. It is a contra army.
Kosovo is often portrayed in the media as an isolated mountainous region that's poor and without resources. It might seem, from these accounts, to be an area of interest only to those who live there.
The New York Times, for example, has carried dozens of such articles by Chris Hedges in the last six months. Only once, on July 8, did Hedges write about the real wealth of Kosovo�"the Stari Trg mining complex. It was a tip-off that something more was at stake in this war.
Hedges' visit to the Stari Trg mining complex is an eye opener. He describes the glittering veins of lead, zinc, cadmium, gold and silver in Stari Trg. According to Hedges, "The sprawling state-owned Trepca mining complex, the most valuable piece of real estate in the Balkans, is worth at
least $5 billion." According to the mine's director, Novak Bjelic, "The war in Kosovo is about the mines, nothing else. This is Serbia's Kuwait�"the heart of Kosovo.
... In addition to all this, Kosovo has 17 billion tons of coal reserves." The whole world knows and observed firsthand in the war against Iraq to what horrendous extent the Pentagon was willing to go in order to guarantee
control of the oil wealth of Kuwait. But the enormous mineral wealth of Kosovo is never publicly discussed by U.S. United Nations Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, President Bill Clinton or the Pentagon generals. They
speak only of "self-determination" of the Albanian population of Kosovo. Of course, they never mention what U.S.-imposed "self-determination" means.
It means colonization under the guise of "liberation," like what the U.S.did to Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Philippines a hundred years ago.
An Internet search for reports on the mines of Kosovo�"the Trepca mining complex or Stari Trg�"turned up only the one article by Hedges and a small piece in the June 22 Wall Street Journal. All other mentions are in metallurgical journals. How could this vital fact be omitted from all
discussion of what is at stake in Kosovo? It is comparable to describing Kuwait and the oil-rich Gulf states as barren deserts. The wealth of Kosovo is greater than the rich veins of ore in the mines. Hedges describes the mining complex: "The Stari Trg mine, with its warehouses, is ringed with smelting plants, 17 metal treatment sites, freight yards, railroad lines, a power plant and the country's largest battery plant."
The labor power of millions of workers throughout socialist Yugoslavia built this mining complex into the powerhouse it is today. It was their wealth that was invested in developing the complex. It belongs not just to those who live in Kosovo, but to the workers of all Yugoslavia. The
Yugoslav web site www.yugo slavia.com describes Trepca as the "richest lead and zinc mines in Europe." Lignite deposits in the Kosovo mines are, according to experts, sufficient for the next 13 centuries. The capacity
of the lead and zinc refineries ranks third in the world.
Miners work round the clock, day and night, in six-hour shifts. According to the mine director, "In the last three years we have mined 2,538,124 tons of lead and zinc crude ore and produced 286,502 tons of lead and zinc and 139,789 tons of pure lead, zinc, cadmium, silver and gold." Although
the average person watching the news in the evening has never heard of Stari Trg, it has been a prize changing hands for two thousand years. The wealth of Stari Trg is legendary. Precious metals were mined there more than 2,000 years ago, first by the Greeks, then by the Romans.
These mines were the grand prize in the Nazi occupation of the Balkans after Germany grabbed control from the British. The mines have great industrial and military importance. The Nazis used batteries produced there to power their U-boats. Today submarine batteries are still made there. Profits from these mines are helping to keep the Yugoslav Federation afloat.
U.S. and UN sanctions imposed on Serbia and Montenegro, the two remaining republics of Yugoslavia, have taken an enormous toll. Without investment credits, loans for financing industry, imports and exports, the economy has
been stifled. Inflation has weakened the currency. The mines, which once were the largest employer in the province, have also been affected. The most important words in Hedges' article are the description of the complex
as "state owned." Throughout this decade, as the capitalist market has swept over the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, socialist Yugoslavia has attempted to resist privatization of its industry and natural resources. To break this resistance, the Western
imperialist countries played a major role in the breakup of socialist Yugoslavia.
This huge complex of mines, refining, power and transportation in Kosovo may well be the largest uncontested piece of wealth not yet in the hands of the big capitalists of the U.S. or Europe. The industry, natural resources and transportation of all the former Soviet republics, the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, and the secessionist republics of Yugoslavia are now being rapidly privatized. No one within the region has the wealth
or connections to finance capital to buy controlling shares of these vast state-owned industries. The major Western corporations are gobbling these industries up.
While the fate of some industries is still in negotiation, the lending and credit conditions of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank require the breakup of all state-owned industries. This is true for the oil and natural gas wealth in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea as well as the diamond mines of Siberia.
The decision on who will own or have controlling interest in the 22 mines and the many processing plants of the Trepca complex will be made by whoever wins the armed struggle raging in Kosovo. NATO domination on the ground would put U.S. corporations in the best ownership position.
Nationalist strife advances their position. Although being forced to privatize in order to survive in today's global
market, Yugoslavia has tried to control the process and to propose Balkan regional development.
According to the June 22 Wall Street Journal, the Yugoslav Federation is in negotiations to sell shares in the Trepca mining complex. Forced by the economic crisis, they have been negotiating with a Greek investor�"Mytilineos Holdings SA�"for partial ownership. The former manager of the mines, Byrhan Kavaja�"who is now allied with the opposition to the
Yugoslav government�"has written to all corporations dealing in soft metals to tell them not to make agreements with the Yugoslav government. Kavaja says that once a new government is in power, all past decisions on ownership will be invalidated. The opposition will make "new agreements." Who is likely to be the beneficiary of these agreements?
The progressive movement in the U.S. and throughout Western Europe must be at the forefront in explaining that the billions of dollars spent on the U.S./NATO occupation of the region is not in the interests of any of the
people of the Balkans. Nor is it in the interests of poor and working people in the U.S. or Europe. The war is destroying all that was built through collective ownership and collaboration in the Balkans. This war will mean higher taxes and even more cuts in social programs in the U.S and
Europe. But the billions of dollars in profit will go to a few wealthy stockholders in the U.S. or in Western Europe.
- END -

jinx44

(04/04/1999; 23:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4272)

Camel--more about the weather

Since it's late Sunday, I figured I could get away with another long post................

At a remote facility ringed with barbed wire, a brand-new array of 36 antennas rises from the black spruce forest that stretches hundreds of miles across central Alaska. Completed last December and now undergoing testing, the antenna field is the visible part of a powerful and sophisticated high-frequency radio transmitter designed to transform areas of the upper atmosphere into the equivalent of huge lenses, mirrors, and antennas.
This little-known Pentagon-sponsored radio-physics project, called the HIGH-FREQUENCY ACTIVE AURORAL RESEARCH PROGRAM (HAARP), is officially intended to expand knowledge about the nature of long-range radio communications and surveillance using the fluctuating ionosphere [see "Way Up In The Ionosphere"], the portion of the upper atmosphere extending from 35 to 500 miles above Earth's surface.
According to program manager John L. Heckscher of the Phillips Laboratory at Hanscom AFB, Massachusetts, potential military applications of the HAARP research include developing Department of Defense technology for detecting cruise missiles and communicating with submarines. "Although HAARP is being managed by the Air Force and Navy, it is purely a scientific research facility that poses no threat to potential adversaries and has no value as a military target," he says.
But that's just the publicly announced part of the program. HAARP also has a secret agenda: pursuing more exotic military goals, such as locating deeply buried weapons factories thousands of miles away - and even altering the local weather above an enemy's territory.
A 1990 internal document obtained by Popular Science says the program's overall goal is to "control ionospheric processes in such a way as to greatly improve the performance of military command, control, and communications systems." It provides a description of the following applications:
* Injecting high-frequency radio energy into the ionosphere to create huge, extremely low frequency (ELF) virtual antennas used for earth-penetrating tomography - peering deep beneath the surface of the ground by collecting and analyzing reflected ELF waves beamed down from above * Heating regions of the lower and upper ionosphere to form virtual "lenses" and "mirrors" that can reflect a broad range of radio frequencies far over the horizon to detect stealthy cruise missiles and aircraft. * Generating ELF radio waves in the ionosphere to communicate across large distances with deeply submerged submarines.
And, patent documents filed during an earlier research effort that evolved into the HAARP program outline further military applications of ionospheric-heating technology:
* Creating a "full global shield" that would destroy ballistic missiles by overheating their electronic guidance systems as they fly through a powerful radio-energy field.
* Distinguishing nuclear warheads from decoys by sensing their elemental composition.
* Manipulating local weather.
When the full HAARP facility is constructed, it will include several sensing and analysis systems. At its heart is the antenna field, which now is a demonstration version of a larger planned array named the ionospheric research instrument (IRI), which will include 360 antennas. The IRI is designed to temporarily modify 30-mile diameter patches of the upper atmosphere by exciting, or "heating," their constituent electrons and ions with focused beams of powerful, high-frequency radio energy. A household analogy would be a microwave oven, which heats dinner by exciting the foods water molecules with microwave energy.
Earth-penetrating tomography is a startling potential use of ionospheric heating. The method would work by beaming radio energy into the Auroral electrojet, the curved, charged- particle stream formed at high latitudes where the solar wind interacts with Earth's magnetic field. The radio energy then disperses over a large areas through duct-like regions of the ionosphere, forming a virtual antenna that can be thousands of miles in length.
Such an ELF antenna can emit waves penetrating as deeply as several kilometers into the ground, depending on the geological makeup and subsurface water conditions in a targeted area. Aircraft or satellites stationed overhead would then collect the reflected ELF waves and relay them to computers at a processing station, where subsurface inhomogeneities that trace the outlines of structures such as underground weapons facilities can be imaged. North Korea and Iraq, where buried nuclear weapons labs are believed to exist, would be prime candidates for earth-penetrating tomography surveillance.
Virtual lenses and mirrors will be generated in the ionosphere, if the IRI works as intended. By precisely warming a patch of the lower ionosphere, the IRI reduces its density relative to the surrounding atmosphere. An "ionospheric lens" thus formed can in turn focus a radio beam into the upper ionosphere. Normally, most high-frequency radio waves broadcast from the ground are absorbed or scattered in the lower ionosphere, and few of them reach such high altitudes.
Next, the focused radio beam excites a patch of the upper ionosphere to form a virtual mirror. Finally, a radio-communication signal broadcast by the IRI, focused through the lens and reflected from the mirror, can be directed far over the horizon.
Virtual lenses and mirrors could also be used to scan a blanket of very low frequency (VLF) radio waves transmitted by an over-the-horizon radar. Although they reflect little VLF energy, stealth aircraft can appear from above as "holes in the blanket," thus betraying their position.
Proprietary phased-array transmitting, steering, and pulsing techniques built into the IRI will permit rapid aiming of the radio-frequency beam in any direction, and at angles as low as 30 degrees above the horizon. This "oblique heating" ability enables HAARP to form virtual lenses or mirrors at distances of more than 1,000 miles from the transmitter.
Deeply submerged submarines can receive secure messages through ELF radio communication. But the antenna needed to generate a desirable transmission frequency such as 30Hz must be more than 1,200 miles long. Real estate parcels this shape are hard to come by on the ground, but not in the air. As in the case of earth-penetrating tomography, high-frequency radio energy transmitted into the Auroral electrojet can form a submarine communications ELF antenna thousands of miles long. Consequently, HAARP can beam ELF waves at nearly any portion of the Northern Hemisphere by using oblique heating.
The full global shield is an exotic proposal for an Earth-encompassing shell of high-speed electrons and ions that would be generated by a much more powerful version of HAARP. Any missile or warhead passing through the protective shell would explode. Or, a "soft-kill" weapon system using ELF waves produced by HAARP heating could be used to overload power-distribution grids and destroy unshielded microelectronics using electromagnetic pulse energy similar to that released by a high-altitude nuclear explosion.
Real nuclear warheads and decoys, or the constituent materials of unfamiliar satellites, could be remotely distinguished in flight by bathing them in accelerated electrons. Analyzing the electromagnetic signal returns would reveal their elemental composition.
Weather manipulation may be possible by building an ionospheric heater a thousand-fold more powerful than HAARP. Differential heating of areas of the atmosphere could induce local weather conditions, such as floods or droughts, useful to the military. Smooth seas might suddenly be raked by treacherous squalls, creating or denying a tactical advantage.
Other elements that will be installed at the HAARP facility include a 120-foot diameter incoherent-scatter radar dish, a Laser Detection and Ranging Device (LIDAR), a magnetometer, and other optical and infrared instruments designed to analyze low-level light emissions induced in IRI-heated regions of the ionosphere. In all, HAARP's assemblage of transmitters, receivers, computers, and advanced signal-processing methods places it on the cutting edge of high-energy radio-physics research.
The program is managed by the USAF Phillips Laboratory and the Office of Naval Research. Equipment is supplied by Advanced Power Technologies, a Washington, D.C. based subsidiary of E-Systems of Dallas, a longtime maker of electronics used in ultra-secret projects such as signals-intelligence satellites and the PRESIDENTS e-4B "doomsday plane," which is designed to serve as an airborne White House in the event of nuclear war.
Initial work on HAARP was begun in the mid-1980s by Atlantic Richfield Corp.'s subsidiary, ARCO Production Technologies Corp., and its then-president, physicist Bernard Eastlund. ARCO wanted to find an on-site demand for the enormous amounts of Alaskan natural gas it owns. So it cooked up an energy-intensive idea.
Eastlund worked under contract for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (now called ARPA) and was awarded three patents - one of which was classified until 1991 - for inventions dealing with ionospheric modification. One pf the most grandiose systems described in his patents is a 40-mile square, HAARP-like radio transmitter that would have used huge amounts of electric power generated by turbines burning natural gas drawn from the vast North Slope reserves. "Full global shield" was conceived to wipe out the guidance systems of missiles in flight anywhere in the world.
"I founded and led the ARCO program until 1987," Eastlund says. "About that time Edward Teller visited Robert Hirsch, the ARCO vice president who had hired me. I don't know the direct results of that discussion, but shortly thereafter new [secret] initiatives began which I was not privy to, and I declined further involvement."
Teller is a co-designer of the hydrogen bomb and was the arch-proponent of the now-abandoned X-ray laser - the centerpiece of Ronald Regan's Star Wars missle-defense program. Asked about his involvement in the beginnings of HAARP, Teller responded "I have no idea about that. I don't remember anything about it."
Although it is much smaller than a "full global shield" system, Eastlund says, "HAARP is the perfect first step toward a plan like mine. Advances in phased-array transmitter technology and power generation can produce the field strength required. The government will say it isn't so, but if it quacks like a duck, and it looks like a duck, - there's a good chance it is a duck."
Advanced Power Technologies president Ramy Shanny declined to comment on Eastlund's claims. And the Defense Department is making no effort to dispel the impression that Eastlund's story might sound a bit like science fiction. "HAARP certainly does not have anything to do with Eastlund's thing, that is just crazy,: says Heckscher. "What we have here is a premier scientific research facility with military applications."
Richard Williams, a physical chemist and consultant to the Sarnoff Laboratory at Princeton University, sees things differently. "Eastlund is an inetllectual ace and a technologically savvy guy," he says, "though there is a bit of Dr. Strangelove in him."
Speculation and controversy surround the question of whether HAARP's 1.7 gigawatts (1.7 billion watts) of effective radiated power in the 2.8 to 10 mHz frequency range might cause lasting damage to Earth's upper atmosphere. By comparison, the energy level is more than 3,000 times greater than the biggest commercial AM radio transmitters.
"HAARP will dump enormous amounts of energy into the upper atmosphere. We don't know what will happen," says Williams. "My concern is its effect on a global scale - you can't localize the effects. With experiments on this scale, irreparable damage could be done in a short time. The immediate need is for open discussion. To do otherwise would be an act of global vandalism."
Eastlund himself observes that "There has never been a transmitter of this power in this frequency band. It would be wise to assess its impact."
The 440 page HAARP environmental-impact statement filed by the Air Force says that the normally upward-directed IRI transmissions can raise the internal body temperature of nearby people; ignite road flares in the trunks of cars; detonate aerial munitions that use electronic fuses; and scramble aircraft communications, navigation, and flight control systems.
Program officials insist that the facility will operate safely during the four or five 14-day transmitting "campaigns" scheduled yearly. An integral part of HAARP design is a system programmed to automatically cease transmitter operation if nearby aircraft are detected. The chain-link fence is designed to keep visitors from ending up in the path of a low-angle beam.
For decades, high-frequency heaters around the globe have been operated by researchers studying how the injection of radio energy affects the ionosphere, and the process by which the upper atmosphere recovers from the disturbance. These include transmitters in Tromso, Norway, which are operated by Germany's Max Planck Insitute; Nizhny-Novgorod, Russia, and Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan, which are manned by Russian scientists; and U.S. facilities at Arecibo, Puerto Rico, and Fairbanks, Alaska.
HAARP's power output - nearly twice that of any other ionospheric heater - combined with the rapid beam-steering ability and broad frequency range of its transmitter, will permit IRI to modify higher-altitude areas of the ionosphere from greater distances than ever. A bank of six 2.5 megawatt, 3,600-horsepower diesel generators powers the IRI prototype, while the rest of the facility taps electricity from a nearby power line.
Some prominent experts are unmoved by talk of HAARP's possibly dire effects. The dean of American space scientists, James Van Allen, professor of physics at the University of Iowa and discoverer of the Earth-girdling radiation belts that bear his name, says "Every time you turn on a radio transmitter you modify the ionosphere. HAARP will perturb the ionosphere markedly for an hour, or maybe even a day, or perhaps at most a month. I don't see any deleterious effects other than on local communications."
Van Allen says five decades of research have given him a feeling for the minute scale of influence humans have on the cosmos. "There is nothing that we as men can do that does not pale in comparison to the forces of nature."
Alfred Y. Wong, professor of physics at UCLA and director of the high-power active-simulation ionospheric heater - HAARP's little brother - located in Fairbanks, Alaska, simulates ionospheric conditions in an atmospheric chamber at his Los Angles laboratory. The device subjects electrons and ions to high-frequency radio heating, replicating the effects of HAARP. "We understand most of the fundamental mechanisms that underlie ionospheric heating. In chamber simulations we've conducted very detailed studies with reproducible results. We put probes in the chamber to study this. We found no negative effects," he says.
Wong believes HAARP could be used for environmental mitigation efforts, such as accelerating chlorine atoms into interplanetary space to prevent them from degrading Earth's vital upper-atmospheric ozone layer. Though he acknowledges potential offensive military uses of HAARP, Wong believes no harm will occur from its operation. "I don't see any problems, only surprises," he says. "That's why we do research."
Others harbor a strong distrust of the program. A local organization called No HAARP firmly opposes the project on environmental and communications-disruption grounds. "This is not good science," contends retired ARCO Production Technologies employee Claire Zickuhr, who leads the group. "They have no idea what this thing could do to the ionosphere. To put this in the hands of the military scares the hell out of me."
HAARP has proceeded full-steam ahead since its inception in 1990. The total amount of money spent over the past six years exceeds $58 million and may reach nearly $200 million by the end of the decade, when the installation is scheduled to be completed. The effort is a "congressional special-interest program," meaning that supporters in Congress request funds for it on behalf of the Air Force and Navy.
Sen. Ted Stevens (R. Alaska) is a staunch supporter of the program. Other Alaska state officials, however, have not been briefed about HAARP by the military. Asked about the program, a spokesman for Gov. Tony Knowles replied, "We have no idea what you are talking about." State Rep. Jeanette James, whose district surrounds the HAARP site, has repeatedly asked Air Force officials about the project and has been told "not to worry," she says. "My gut feeling is that it is frightening. I'm skeptical. I don't think they know what they are doing."
This is not the last we will hear of HAARP. Whether or not the program's sponsors understand its long-term effects, they appear to feel that the potential for useful military payoffs makes it worth taking some political heat - although they may not have expected to attract any attention way out back in Alaska's sub-Arctic taiga.

WAY UP IN THE IONOSPHERE
The atmosphere near Earth's surface is composed of a soup of neutral atoms and molecules of various gases, mostly nitrogen and oxygen. Things are different in the rarefied ionosphere, where the Sun's ultraviolet and X-ray radiation transforms these particles into ions and free electrons through the process known as ionization.
Radio communications are profoundly affected by the ionosphere, which can variously reflect, distort, or absorb radio signals, depending on their frequency and other conditions. Sometimes listeners around the world can hear a high-frequency, shortwave broadcast that has "bounced" off the ionosphere. Similarly, AM radio broadcasts that don't carry very far during the day can sometimes be received much farther away at night, when the ionosphere's reflectivity increases.
The ionosphere is a notoriously changeable medium for radio transmission. It varies with the day-night cycle, in response to perturbations in Earth's magnetic field, and particularly during periods of sunspot activity, when high-frequency and very low frequency radio communication may become impossible, and power-grid failures on the ground can even occur.
Since there are so few atmospheric particles in the ionosphere, our normal concept of temperature doesn't work. Up there, temperature is an expression of how excited or "hot" the electrons are. Electron temperatures range between -130 degrees F. and 302 degrees F. across the ionospher's four layers, which extend from 35 to 500 miles in altitude.
The local heating effect of the HAARP transmitter is expected to raise electron temperature by 40 degrees F. according to the Air Force, and to endure as long as three months.

Tomcat

(04/04/1999; 23:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4273)

jinx44

Sir jinx44, my gratitude for this post is beyond words. I searched the internet and found nada. Not so for you. You struck gold. Stolen gold. Or gold that is in the midst of a hold-up!

Aragorn III

(04/04/1999; 23:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4274)

Kazakstan...another glimpse at the future

Most worthy TownCrier, your Msg ID:4243 on the development in Kazakstan was indeed a vital delivery of news. While you seem to credit me with a sort of otherworldly power to see the future, I must confess that I knew nothing of Kazakstan's imminent plan to change course...acquiring new gold rather than spending it in defense of a failing fiat currency. So while your credit is misplaced in that I had no knowledge of Kazakstan, you will however see this play acted out on many stages on many stormy nights . The script is clearly written, but the troupe's travelling itinerary, when and where, is not known by others until the circus comes to town! I left to find more news on this front, but was unsuccessful. Please keep us informed.

got gold?

Trico

(04/04/1999; 23:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4275)

####Gold price as of April 9th

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/post.htmlWill drop to $278.75

Peter Asher

(04/04/1999; 23:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4276)

### $276,70 ###

The following will explain why I am going to call $276.70 for GCM9 next Friday.

We on Forum have been expounding on how whatever "They" are up to in pounding down gold, it presents an incredible buying opportunity. Well maybe we're all reading from the same sheet of music here. Gold has been so Black PR'd, that I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of physical is being stashed away as prices decline. Maybe the paper shorts are the suckers that are being manipulated themselves. When the real Masters have all the hard stuff, they'll call of the propaganda campaign and it won't just be the gold space shuttle insulation that gets launched into outer space.

I can see it now: "Aug 1st 1999, Late breaking news has just revealed that LTCM, BIS and several other undisclosed major Banks have pledged !0 million dollars to GATA to push the law suit against unknown parties who have conspired to manipulate Gold"!!

Hey Gandalf! Where's that literary agent, I've got this plot -----

Aragorn III

(04/05/1999; 00:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4277)

Horsemen of the Apocalypse

These five horsemen that generate the move of good men and women toward gold--Y2K, Overvalued Stocks, Asian Contagion, euro competition, and the return of OPEC, will have little consequence when compared to the coming of the SIXTH horseman...one that we must welcome with open arms. The return and triumph of the independent human spirit!

Peter Asher

(04/05/1999; 00:20:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4278)

Jinx44 -- beesting

Jinx: Now all someone has to do (How 'bout James Bond's nemeses, Goldfinger) is set up one of those things in Patagonia and melt that Antarctic Ice Cap. First of course they'll lock up the future oceanfront property in Nevada, The Carolina Piedmont, Lyon, France, etc. etc. Seriously though, these guy's are way out of control. We need to cut their purse strings.

beesting: Your tax plan would wipe out the great democratic game of "I vote to tax you." How will the freeloaders survive?

How about this: Congress gets set up with two branches . One votes all the tax laws into existence. The other votes all spending bills by referendum of all the voters, whose votes are weighted by the amount of tax they pay. It's the ultimate check and balance, yes?

Aragorn III

(04/05/1999; 00:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4279)

question from SteveH on monetary jewelry

Monetary jewelry is the most apt name for the gold wealth as it is held in India and similar regions. Rather than bullion coins or bars, this nearly pure gold is fashioned into bracelets, pendants, and necklaces; and is valued by weight-- as distinct from jewelry in the U.S, which is known as fashion jewelry.

YGM--I followed your recent link and do agree that it is worth the time required. There is much there not easily dismissed, and is to ignored only at one's own peril. Having adequate gold wealth renders this mean business into a bedtime story in which we may safely observe the plight of Hansel and Gretel. There be witches in these woods.
got gold?

el St.One

(04/05/1999; 00:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4280)

GOLD****288.80*****for Fri 4/9/1999 June close

I have been thinking about the trigger (5th Horseman ) for some time now. I beleive it will be ********conspiracy*****. Not the one everyone is talking about, I'm am advocating a buying conspiracy. If all of us GOLD Bugs start buying a 1/2 oz of GOLD every month, and spread the word, and each of us get one more person to buy a 1/2 oz of Gold each month and they in turn, each get one more buyer etc etc. You know the old pyramid scheme, only every body in our up line and our down line wins.
How many months will the good ole boys take the heat.
I have done my part so far this year, looking to indoctrinate my April subject. **el**

Aragorn III

(04/05/1999; 00:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4281)

Peter, I am gathering loose threads

Seeing you here I will quickly mention my thanks for your earlier response to my question. You brought my attention to a post I might have missed during my apparent absence on a "contest weekend". I wanted to assure you (and all) that the Round Table discussions are far too important to let absence take its toll. As a wandering torch bearer I am a common sight to the skeletons, the rats, and the hunch-shouldered scholars also found as common sights within the archives. I read it it all, my good friend. I trust that many other knights have tripped those dark yet valuable halls.

Aragorn III

(04/05/1999; 02:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4282)

A clear lesson for your children, or for your curious friends

ET, beesting, turbohAug, and Tomcat

Thank you for the replies. You words have been duly noted to my future advantage.

Let me share with you one of my best tools to teach others one aspect of the troubling nature of the present monetary system. I give them blank scraps of paper and tell them they represent all banks (Central Bank or Main St.--it does not matter). In this simple, but elegant example, they create money by signing their autograph upon a slip of paper. They may only create this money under a loan agreement in which the borrower must pay it back with interest, and that to avoid prosecution on counterfeiting charges, all money they create must be treated as temporary accounting units--to be stricken from the ledgers as the loan is settled.

To keep it simple, use 50% interest...borrowing any two must repay three. Upon repayment, the bank must destroy the evidence--the principle Two that they have on record as a book entry , but may retain the Third as their honest profit (because surely this Third dollar is an honest dollar for which the bank may claim innocence--after all, it destroyed the Two it created--"Who knows where the borrower obtained this third dollar?", they ask with a wry grin and wink at the auditors and fellow bankers.)

You play the customer(s) to the bank. Borrow two "autographs" and try to pay back three. It can't be done. Borrow two more, then pay back three to settle the first loan. Now you have one, but you owe three on this second loan. The bank destroys the first Two of principle created, and keeps the One from interest. To pay off your second loan, you borrow two more and give all three to the bank. Now the bank tears up the principle Two from the second loan, and keeps the One from interest. The bank has now earned, and still holds two dollars. You hold no dollars but owe three for the third loan. So you borrow four (for which you will owe six) and use three to settle the third loan. The bank destroys the Two, keeps the Third, and now holds a total of three dollars in profit.

You see the folly in borrowing, and now try to EARN your way out of debt. (Remember, you now hold One, but owe Six on that fourth loan.) You wash the bank's windows, you paint the bank's walls. You are paid three dollars to raise your total to four. Now you hold ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD, including money earned through honest labor, but you still owe it all to the bank, plus a fifth and sixth dollar that you must borrow or else default on your loan. It is impossible to earn these dollars, as no one has a dollar to pay you.

Explore this all that you wish with your "banker" friend. Money must be borrowed into creation before it can be earned by others. As discussed in my earlier post, it must always be paid back to retain its semblance of value. Successful repayment is contingent upon additional borrowing to outpace repayment...a pyramid scheme of ever-increasing debt. Your friend must now recognize that the two probable ends are equally undesirable. The dollar either dies in unacceptable inflation, or else the sytem collapses upon itself. Gold is the means to escape. Honest labor brings gold from the hills, and honest labor entices this gold to circulate, endlessly changing hands. It need never be returned to the hills. It is a stable and permanent money supply. It has no rival. It will return to prominence by people tending to their own best interest. Do you know what a Continental is? Perhaps the day will come when they won't know what a dollar means, either. But the sun has never set on gold, nor will it ever.

got permanence?

el St.One

(04/05/1999; 02:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4283)

Daylight saving time

I see my post was a little late forgot about time change. I tried to post a similar message but it never appeared. Hope this is not a duplicate.

el St.One

(04/05/1999; 02:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4284)

Same

Last 2 post In limbo????????????????0227MDT

Farfel

(04/05/1999; 03:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4285)

*****Fifth Horseman********** ######## $301.00 #############

Michael, I've just returned from Canada and discovered your latest creative contest idea. Although I am unsure whether or not I am posting pre-deadline, nevertheless, I will take a crack at it. If nothing else, the contest theme is so compelling, I cannot ignore it.

In discovering the Fifth horseman, it is imperative to understand the essential characteristics of this entity....first, it must be something that is completely of a left field nature. Americans are fearless today, their brains numbed by huge amounts of Prozac and other feel-good pharmaceuticals, not to mention the longest Bull market of the century. Moreover, the financial Establishment has identified a long litany of potential threats to the global financial status quo. In each case, the same Establishment has developed compelling counter-arguments as to why people need NOT fear any of these potential threats. From the Y2K bug to Greenspan's sudden death to the new EURO, the government and Big Media offer a variety of compelling, soothing rationalizations as to why these phenomena need not be fatal and, in fact, might even prove to be beneficial. Hence, the Fifth Horseman must be "something" completely unexpected...something that NOBODY has ever conceived as a real possibility...something akin to alien invasion! In its extreme left field nature, the Fifth Horseman will be so startling as to not allow the Establishment sufficient time to concoct a means of dispelling the fear of the new Horseman's arrival.

Secondly, the Fifth Horseman must be truly scary. It must be a thing that, upon first glance and without a single scintilla of intellectualization, simply terrifies people to their core, despite all governmental assurances that "everything will be OK." This Fifth Horseman would be so frightening that it would undermine the foundations of those things (such as the American Dollar) thought to be invincible in our world.

I do not believe the Fifth Horseman is War, at least not the Balkan War in its current incarnation. This European war is no more than an abstraction for most Americans. They do not feel its negative effects and, in all likelihood, will never feel them unless the conflict notably broadens.

So, I nominate TERRORISM ON WALL STREET as the Fifth Horseman. In its totally unexpected nature and real visceral impact, it would satisfy the conditions of being a true left field event and a very scary one at that. Who would ever expect it? Nobody ( I NEVER see it discussed anywhere in the Media as a potential threat to the great Bull Market). Who would perpetrate it? I don't know. From Serbs to despondent commodity producers, there are a long list of potential malcontents. No matter who the perpetrators might be, such spontaneous, unpredictable terrorism would inflict enormous, real physical and psychological damage to the bullish purveyors of New Era, "Don't Worry, Be Happy" ideology. If atrocity and real, undeniable anguish visit the workplace/homes of America's "bubble producers," then I think the many overexuberant abstractions supporting America's financial mania would dissipate instantly into the concrete reality of blood and tears.

SteveH

(04/05/1999; 03:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4286)

June gold now...

$282.00 in overseas trading.

This just in from GATA:

Dear fellow members of GATA,

This Easter weekend has been a time to reflect; as many of you have been
reflecting, I am sure.
With Art Bell, for example: "The World is not a nice place and OUR BOMBS
will not make it so." ( http://www.artbell.com/kosovo.html )

Or along these lines of Albert Einstein: "I know not with what weapons
World War III will be fought, but WorldWar IV will be fought with sticks
and stones."

I am no Einstein, no Art Bell; just a teacher of money values watching
the world go to war down a debt money chute. And here in this Easter
reflection, wanting to
1. name the colluders who are ruining the world economically,
2. encourage GATA members to beat debt with gold as money.

Most people now know, all that passes for money today is debt money; if
everybody paid off their debts, if they could, there would be no $s,
etc., in circulation. And therein lies the root cause to the mess the
world is in. "Who goeth a borrowing goeth a sorrowing," said Benjamin
Franklin truly. Almost all the world is sorrowing today.

One can go far on a lie, till caught out. And money-wise, from the
beginning of fractional reserve banking, that has been the way of it.
There have been incredible gains in technology and wealth creation; all
based on a lie � a lie that became more and more bare-faced, open and
ugly from August 1971, when gold no longer had to be put on the counter
to cover purchases in $s and $ exchanges anywhere in the world.

When Nixon did the dirty on gold in 1971, there was some $20 billion
dollars worth of currency exchanged daily; now there is well over a
trillion $s worth of currency exchanged daily, of which less than five
percent is to cover actual trade and services. The rest is for what is
called speculation, but should be called currency-wrecking � directed at
the wrecking of every currency ultimately, but the dollar itself, in the
cyber accounts of eventually just a few hundred players, using a few, a
very few banks and investment houses.

I have been slow in coming to the first of the two points I want to make
in this reflection, but now I am there and ready to name the colluders.

On March 1, the Financial Times reported that the world's leading 10
investment banks have almost doubled their share of "fee-based and
advisory business" in the global capital markets since 1990. According
to the Stern Business School in New York, they now have 77 percent of
the market.

The growing concentration of market share in the hands of the top banks
has coincided with an explosion in the global capital markets during the
1990s, the Stern study showed; from a total volume of less than $1,500
billion at the start of the decade to almost $4,000 billion last year.
The top 20 investment banks increased their share of global capital
markets business from 80 percent in 1990 to 97 percent last year.

The findings, which are based on statistics from Securities Data, the US
information group, showed that the top 10 banks are Goldman Sachs,
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, Credit
Suisse First Boston, Warburg Dillon Read, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan,
Chase Manhattan and Lehman Brothers.

"There is still a lot of juice in this business," said Roy Smith,
professor of international business at Stern, and co-author of the
report. "You can foresee a situation where there are just 10 or 12
banks, instead of 20 accounting for almost all the market."

Aha, I thought, remembering the first Scandale Gold, of 20 January 1999,
by Midas at the Cafe (www.lemetropolecafe.com), which led to the
founding of GATA two days later. For Bill Murphy, as Midas, wrote there:

"Twelve major banks chaired by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in early
January formed a 'Counterparty Risk Management Group' 'with the intent
of enhancing best practices in credit and market risk management. The
policy group will develop standards for strengthened risk management
practices'. We realize this group was not just formed because of the
gold issue, but why the need for it to be formed now? Is this not a
'cabal planner' of sorts."

Of course the Counterparty Risk Management Group is a cabal and planning
-- a cabal to dominate the global capital (for which read "debt") market
entirely - - a cabal to ruin the world.

With $4,000 billion, if you focus it, you could buy the total combined
household, enterprise and government debt of Sweden FIFTY TIMES OVER; or
you could take over the gross international reserves of every country in
the world TWICE OVER, including all 33,400 tonnes of gold held by the
central banks of the world at end 1997, at the then market price of
$290.02 an ounce (Source: World Bank Development Report- 1998/99).
Obviously not such power of focus is vested in the Counterparty Risk
Management Group � but. . . have we not seen "capital" flow out of Asia,
and then back in, with first devastating then harrowing effect? -- with
earnings to the Group on the "in" as well as the "out", no doubt. And
the same with Brazil.

As George Soros put it in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives
Committee on Banking and Financial Services in September 1998, "Instead
of acting like a pendulum financial markets have recently acted more
like a wrecking ball, knocking over one economy after the other." That
accurately reflects the power of the Counterparty Risk Management Group
to ruin the world � and incidentally grin and bear down on gold.

"There are no free markets, they are obviously all rigged," Robert
Chapman, Editor of The International Forecaster wrote in an essay called
Derivatives Mess (12 December 1998). In the essay he reckoned "off the
balance sheet" derivatives from all sources world-wide to be $140
trillion (i.e. $60 trillion � i.e. just one and a half years of world
economic activity � more than Alan Greenspan acknowledges). How much of
that has been generated off the balance sheets by the members of the
Counterparty Risk Management Group, I wonder. (Source:
www.intforecaster.com/index.html ).

Mr. Greenspan has claimed that "derivatives are mainly a zero sum game:
One counterparty's market loss is the other counterparty's market gain."
David Tice put him right at Le Metropole Cafe last week. "We doubt too
many government officials or citizens in Asia, Russia or Brazil would
see derivatives in such a positive light," he wrote. "When the Ruble
collapsed, the Russian banks also collapsed and defaulted on their
derivative obligations. It became one big derivative fiasco. "

As the Dow Jones could soon become one big derivative fiasco. Tice
believes that the Dow's run to 10,000 was much related to derivative
trading and options expiration, and that derivatives will be a major
factor in the coming US stock market decline. "With the coming crisis it
will become obvious that losses for our financial system and economy
will be anything but "a zero sum game"!

"One major negative event and it is over," wrote Robert Chapman in
Derivatives Mess. Over for the Counterparty Risk Management Group, too,
if GATA follows through relentlessly in exposing how the Group's credit
and market risk management is against the public interest and antitrust
laws.

Sadly, collusion is so all-pervasive through the "financial market", it
is still accepted as a fact of life and "a problem" rather than as
something actually illegal, to be challenged, as GATA is challenging it.

Challenging with what consequence? And here I come to the second point I
want to make in this reflection. The outcome of our action must also see
the end to debt money and the reinstatement of gold as money; through it
being bought up by ordinary people � GATA People � as shamed central
banks disperse it.

"PEOPLE HAVE TO BUY GOLD, NOT THE IDIOTIC CENTRAL BANKS FOR GOLD TO
BECOME A STORE OF VALUE," GATA Member Chris Diethelm has written,
entirely correctly.

"If people would use gold to reduce the perpetuated interest on debt
they carry gold will be used for a useful function," he writes. "I have
used gold as collateral to get 5% interest on land purchases where
without it I would have to pay 10%. This has reduced my cost of the
property over time to pay for the initial cost of gold. People have to
buy gold, not the idiotic central banks for gold to become a currency
and a store of value. We in USA are too smart to figure this out. We
love perpetuated debt. You people have a good cause but are helping the
central banks."

I don't quite see how GATA is helping the central banks, but I do take
the point that the bottom line to the GATA exercise must be to maintain
gold as money, and that this purpose is NOT served by fretting over the
central banks and the IMF playing footloose with gold. Bankers have
misused gold from the beginning. In the bank vaults, gold has been the
generator of debt through fractional reserve banking, not money � and
now gold is being lent to bullion dealers as a commodity, not as money.

The subject is well covered in Wither Gold, the prize-winning essay by
Antal E. Fekete, posted at www.fame.irg/research/library/af-001-b.htm. I
quote:

"Rumours about the death of the gold standard are grossly exaggerated.
In 1930 Keynes. . . in his book A Treatise On Money. . . made a
convincing case that dispersal of gold from fewer to more numerous hands
has always been instrumental in promoting the monetary qualities of the
yellow metal. But Keynes went on to prophesy that the exact opposite
would take place (through the rest of) the 20th century. . . What he
referred to was the weaning of the public from the gold coin, the
concentration of gold in the central bank vaults, and the unprecedented
increase of bank notes in circulation. . . However Keynes' prophesy
concerning gold's future fell short of the mark. Keynes failed to
foresee the coming of the third (and so far the greatest) dispersal of
gold a generation after his death in 1947. It took the form of a great
official gold dumping, ushered in by the U.S. Treasury gold auctions in
1974, followed by further auctions of central bank under the aegis of
the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Later the auctions were suspended
� possibly because it was belatedly realized that the U.S. Treasury and
the IMF had made themselves the laughing stock of the world. They were
throwing away their most reliable asset in exchange for irredeemable
promises to pay � at ludicrous prices to boot. . . (Yet) the third
dispersal of gold is still continuing. It may be confidently predicted
that the ultimate effect will be the same as that of previous historic
dispersals: a reconfirmation of gold's position as the paramount
monetary asset of the world."

Vronsky (www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/vronsky022299.html) makes the
same point in an editorial of 22 February 1999, in which he shows how
central bank gold sales have been buying signals in the market rallies
of 1968 to 1975, 1979 to 1980 and 1993. "Central Bank gold selling
peaked at the beginning of 1968, whence gold rose from about $40 to
$180� Central Bank gold selling peaked at the beginning of 1979, whence
gold rose from about $210 to $675. . . Central Bank gold selling peaked
at the beginning of 1993, whence gold rose from about $325 to $405." The
rise in the third rally was constrained as a result of Goldman Sachs
turning bearish from the time Robert Rubin left the firm to become
Treasury Secretary, I suggest --see Red Baron essay
(www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/baron021199.html) of 11 February.

- - - - -
To conclude the reflection:

1. There is no question that the world is being ruined economically,
with consequent warfare, by a stupendous collusion that is against U.S.
anti-trust laws.
2. There is no question that the dispersal of gold from central bank
vaults to ordinary people, West and East, is the best way to ensure
gold's continuance as money after the inevitable crash.
3. With gold as money in the hands of ordinary people, as it already is
in India and other countries of Asia, there is a chance of bringing
economic, ecological and social harmony into play on earth.

Therefore, GATA should be putting more effort into educating westerners
into buying and using gold, like Chris Diethold is doing, and Asians
have long been doing, as an integral aspect of its Gold Anti-trust
Action.

>From tomorrow I will start to catch up on compiling the many messages I
have received from GATA members into E-MAIL CAMPAIGN and VIEWPOINT
postings.

GO GATA, go gold,

Boudewijn Wegerif (Bodwin)
Moderator GATA E-mail Group.

(04/05/1999; 05:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4287)

A quick post

Hey Tomcat - I wish I could elaborate some on Davidson & Rees-Mogg's theories but I'm out the door for a few days and will return later this week. Their concept of mega-politics is truly fascinating.

Jinx & Peter - Jinx, thanks for doing our homework for us. Peter and I had speculated earlier in the week that wars are fought primarily for economic reasons and you have discovered the prize. How ironic it turned out to be a mine containing among other metals, gold and silver. Thanks again for discovering the true rational behind this action in the Balkans.

Thanks to all for an enlightening weekend. Jinx, in my opinion you win the prize for the most enlightening post. Isn't this a great forum!

ET

T. Remital

(04/05/1999; 06:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4288)

*****june gold 289.50*****

http/www.tadkit@jps.netIhave been out of town for awhile..but I feel the stock
market is about to go over the edge and gold will start
it's long journey north..

Tomcat

(04/05/1999; 07:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4289)

Aragorn III

Thank you, knight of knowledge, for the gift to our fair children. I must, however, confess theft of this game for myself. It is I who am the child. It is I who has learned the lesson of the master. If this one game were known to the children of the world gold would rise to its crowning glory.

Tomcat

(04/05/1999; 08:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4290)

Farfel

Regarding you post where you said"

"the Fifth Horseman must be truly scary. It must be a thing that, upon first glance and without a single scintilla of intellectualization, simply terrifies people to their core, despite all governmental assurances that "everything will be OK." This Fifth Horseman would be so frightening that it
would undermine the foundations of those things (such as the American Dollar) thought to be invincible in our world."

Brilliant!

USAGOLD

(04/05/1999; 08:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4291)

Today's Gold Market Report: Week Off to a Slow Start

MARKET UPDATE (4/5/99): Gold opened the week a bit wobbly with London closed
and most waiting for the market to lead the way. The stronger dollar is contributing to gold's
subdued activity. All in all there isn't much to go by as the week gets off to a slow start.

One development of interest to gold investors was the recent announcement by the World
Gold Council U.S. pension funds have begun purchasing gold. WGC reports that "at least
100 tons of gold" were purchased by the funds in the last two years as "insurance against the
volatile equity markets." That volatility could increase this week as a number of signal flares
will go up in the market about the upcoming corporate earnings reports. The older line blue
chips which comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a flat to down year in 1998
according to Fortune magazine. This could have an effect on stock trading as the bad news
wends its way through the markets.

That's it for today. If you would like to receive an information packet which includes a free
copy of our widely read newsletter on gold, News & Views, please click on the order form
below, or call 800-869-5115 and ask for Marie.

USAGOLD

(04/05/1999; 09:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4292)

Contest Extended after a Memorable Weekend

We will extend the contest to 5pm MDT to afford all the traveling knights and ladies making their way back to the castle after the Easter/Passover weekend a chance to participate.

It has truly been another memorable weekend. I cannot remember a time -- in the already illustrious history of this FORUM -- where the participants have been so challenged and have answered the call so competently. If a university is a collection of buildings erected around a library, then we are a collection of student/teachers (each a student; each a teacher) gathered around an idea. Gold has always symbolized something in the collective conscious beyond other material goods. It is the key to our "frozen desire"; the carriage of our sovereign freedom; and the sturdy bridge to our future security. As faith anchors the spiritual side of our natures; so gold anchors the material.

We move on, my fellow travellers, in the pursuit of the golden grail of knowledge and wisdom - one day and one contest at a time.

Time allowing I will be back to comment on the Fifth Horseman tonight after the contest is completed.

----------

For those wondering about the contest rules:

The Last Few Hours of the Fifth Horseman Contest
We come to the last few hours of the contest. This Fifth Horseman has become the subject of much speculation among the knights and ladies as well it
should. This is a menacing rider indeed -- one who has struck fear in the heart of the market before. Now he appears again.......There on the hill! Look at
his elegant, well-bred mount; his ghostly visage. For nigh on three days past we have watched in wonder. Who is this dark figure? For certes, this matter
of identity demands resolution.

Evening approaches, my friends, as the high afternoon fades -- Let us return to the well-lit hall, and gather at this table round, to pursue these elusive
truths. It is Eastertide....Let the feast begin! But bring not the guards from their appointed places at the rampart walls...

Below: The "Call to Contest" for those who might be just now taking their seat at the table.
__________________

A Call To Contest.......
Off in the distance, atop a the hill beyond our castle walls.......what is this visage? Who is this fearful rider who canters in line with the other Four
Horsemen of the
Apocalypse --

Y2K
Asian Contagion
Overvalued Stocks
Euro Introduction

?

He indeed is a black knight, Gandalf, and the menacing heraldry of his armour adds an even more frightening aspect.
And what his presence portends for all is the subject of this contest.

All the Knights and Ladies are called to a contest of wits and discourse as we gather 'round this table for the equinox -- the feasts of rebirth and renewal.

The contest is this: To identify this Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse and in thirty words or more tell us why he appears so threatening.

.........After thinking about it overnight, each knight or lady gets one post on the subject, instead of unlimited tries. Those who have already posted their
identification of this ghostly visage can post again or re-post their first try.........

The winning poster will not only identify this Fifth Horseman, he or she will offer the best post as to why. The winning poster will receive a glittering
one-tenth ounce Philharmonic gold coin. There will be three runners-up each receiving the hard to come by U.S. Silver Eagle.

Please indicate Fifth Horseman posts with stars *****in the subject box.

To make it interesting, we add another one tenth ounce gold prize, for the individual who comes nearest the closing price of gold on the **June
contract** Friday, April 9, 1999.

***This is a change from the original call to contest prompted by the fact that MRCI is not posting the June contract. This will make it easier for all to
follow.
Those who have already posted prices should make a new post with a new price. Please be aware of what others have posted as a price. The first one to
claim a price is the one who owns it.

Please indicate your price with number signs #########
in the subject box.

Lastly, all who post for the first time will receive a free book: Either the ABCs of Gold Investing or In the Footstep of Giants (Another's early posts). Your
choice. Just post and then e-mail us with your request.

Aristotle

(04/05/1999; 09:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4293)

ET and Beesting, (and SteveH)

I'm glad you both saw the sense in my question/statement "Sovereign nations all hold Gold in their treasuries, so why not also sovereign companies and sovereign individuals?" Let me direct your attention to Steve's GATA report this morning. Hurrah! With this single post my entire outlook has shifted to VERY favorable light upon their approach. The comments were well considered targeting Gold as money, and the positive effects of having it dispursed among many hands. I'm sure everyone would agree that money is the most widely held commodity, and it needs to be, or else commerce does not occur efficiently. I hope they do not stray far from the important fundamentals outlined in this mornings post. Cheers and applause!

ET, I have read The Sovereign Individual by JD Davidson and Lord W Rees-Mogg. I find their forecasting premise (reaction to violence) to be particularly insightful and valid.

Isn't it interseting to hear the media all latch onto the word 'sovereign', in regard to NATO attacking a sovereign nation? What other kind of nation IS there? What other kind of free-thinking PERSON is there? I would think that the operative word they would focus on is not the issue of 'sovereignty', but rather of NATO 'ATTACKING' (as opposed to their charter as a defensive alliance.)
Actually I'm glad that the term 'sovereign' is getting its day in the sun. People need to become comfortable with the meaning of that word and apply it to themselves and their affairs.
Now the focus needs to be on the 'attack' element. NATO...tsk, tsk, tsk...what are you DOING??!

Robert Sturgeon

(04/05/1999; 09:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4294)

***** Fifth Horseman

The Fifth Horsemen gently crests the easy hill, his lance festooned with a green banner carrying Dollar signs ($). Behind him comes his horde, his army of depositors, each desperate to withdraw a few thousand Dollars from their fractional reserve banks. He pauses and laughs and urges his unknowing pawns forward. The first few get cash, the rest get blood.

Why? Very low interest rates to depositors, Very little vault cash, Y2k on the horizon. Individual logic overwhelms collective security; the soothing voices of calm are drowned in the sudden realization that the last will be lost; the house of cards (and electronic account balances) comes toppling down.

(04/05/1999; 09:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4295)

Peter Asher, Stranger, ET

In reading your comments on the war in Kosovo. I wanted to share another perspective. Every American that believes in our constitutional form of government should be violently opposed to our involvement in that conflict. Our founding fathers established this country under a rule of law , which says only congress has the right to declare war. That is not being followed and the approach Clinton took is unconstitutional.

Our founding fathers had learned through many years of history that Kings had the power to declare war to usually for their own power and gain and to the detriment of the citizens of both sides of the conflict.

Clinton is not a King and should be impeached for this action along with many others that he has taken. The American people for the most part, are only being told what the major media wants them to hear. The are not being told that the KLA who will benefit greatly from the Nato action is a political terrorist group that deals in narcotics and has ties to Bin Laden.

I am pleased to say that our Idaho congressman understands this issue correctly and has discussed the issues in much more detail. I refer you on to an article she wrote, that same site has other articles that paint a different perspective of the Kosovo issue.

http://www.jbs.org/tna/1999/04-26-99/illegal_war.htm

http://www.jbs.org/tna/1999/03-15-99/kosovo.htm

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 10:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4296)

Most IMM currencies lower early in light trade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990405/ja.htmlRead only if you are bored. Slow, post-holiday economics news.

CoBra(too)

(04/05/1999; 10:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4297)

####the fifth horseman####

So far four apocalyptic horsemen have been identified, still the very roots of todays global economic imbalances have been scarcely touched.
While in economic terms - measured in gnp data allegedly only 30% of the global economy are negatively impacted by the recent currency turmoil - , though this probably translates to 70% of world population suffering the severe effects of US $ dominated world reserve currency. Notwithstanding the inherent weakness of also being the largest debtor nation in the world, the supremacy of the greenback is disturbing, to say the least.
Mankind is and always has and will be driven by underlying twin factors, namely, GREED & FEAR, or vice versa.
The majority is already experiencing fear, while having lost their live savings and ability to recuperate under the $ fiat system, will not forever endure and therefor challenge the few, who are amassing unsustainable riches by greed on account of the masses.
Fear and greed, together, again will dwarf all horsemen, which have surfaced so far and will lead the historically unprecedented fiat monetary system,with no real anchor to value to oblivion.

I will not venture on short term opinions on the gold price, though I foresee an explosive bull market long term.

CoBra (too)

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 10:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4298)

Kazak State Won't Support Currency

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990404/kazakstan__1.htmlVery important repeat of yesterday's Report from the Tower for all those who may have missed it. Kazakstan no longer spending gold reserves to support their national currency, choosing to let it float, and to increase reserves of gold instead.
"...we are making this responsible statement, being aware of (the impact of) our action and hoping to ... increase our gold and currency reserves."

There has been little more reported since this story broke yesterday.

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 10:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4299)

Helping JA with the links

http://www.jbs.org/tna/1999/04-26-99/illegal_war.htm1 down, 1 to go

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 10:18:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4300)

Helping JA with the links

http://www.jbs.org/tna/1999/03-15-99/kosovo.htmdone.

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 10:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4301)

Kazakstan...maybe keeping their own gold?

Moscow--Apr 1--In 1998, Kazakhstan produced 8.9 tonnes of refined gold and
535.8 tonnes of refined silver, down 8.2% and up 37.5% on the year
respectively, the Interfax news agency reported, quoting Minister for
Energy, Industry and Trade, Sergei Lyadov. Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

T. Remital

(04/05/1999; 11:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4302)

********TRUTH******

The fifth horseman to come on to the scene is the TRUTH ---Somthing we have had very
little of.. Needless to say ..From the President all the way down to CB spoksmen the
message has been far from the truth , It is about time for a change.

The Stranger

(04/05/1999; 12:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4303)

Thanks, JA. I checked out the URLs you posted.

I don't really have much to add to what I have already said. I am a Vietnam Era person, however, who would go to Canada before I would fight for this coward president who is a bald-faced LIAR. Those who voted to keep him in office have only themselves to face on this one.

Julia

(04/05/1999; 13:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4304)

Michael*****Clarification on The Fifth Horseman

Michael, Last night I went to bed thinking ,"I don't know how to really say what I meant." Today I read Michel Chossudovsky's article, Financial Warfare, from YGM's post #4268 and he put it into words for me. Hedging is only a part of what I fear is happening along with Y2K, Asian Contagion, Overvalued Stocks and Euro Introduction. I have clarified the ending here.

As the golden light rises in the east, growing hotter in its climb over the distant hill, five horses and their masters appear at the peak,
pausing there to survey the world . The Few , from below, recognize four of them as Y2K, Asian Contagion, Overvalued Stocks and
Euro Introduction. But the fifth remains a mystery.

The fearless five converge on the hill from different directions, meeting curiously at the same time. There is no leader among them,
no general, no master plan. But as with the right combination of elements, the wind blows into a hurricane reaking havok in the world,
so these warriors gather more power as they converge and ride together. When they are through, no one will be left untouched by
their power.

Silently, they canter together down the hill.
Only The Few below see all five dark silhouettes pressed against the spectacular powerful array of warmth and life behind them. They
call out to others, pointing to the approaching figures. But their voices are mocked and the people pay no attention. "We're happy,"
they say," Leave us alone with your visions."

All but The Few are blinded by the "menacing heraldry" of the mysterious black knight's armour as he rides toward the world. His
armour is polished to the reflection of a mirror and he rides with pagentry and ceremony . His presence intoxicates all but The Few so
that the people ignore the dangers posed by the other four. He is a pompous assassin who mesmerizes his victims and himself with
immitations of prosperity and while the people are blinded by the reflection of the golden light in his armour, he steals their wealth. All
the while they celebrate, drunken on greed and lust.

As he rides closer,TheFew recognize his snout sticking out from under the armour that hides him. They become suspicious and
begin to question him. But quickly, he sheds his shiny armour and rolls into a ball for protection.

The Few point to him and cry out in one voice, "It's the Hedgehog. The creature is bailing out. Kill him!!!!" But the spines are many
and sharp. Even though he loses a few , he is well protected and soon is able to crawl away and hide in the hedge where he and
others like him conspire to steal again.

The Fifth Horseman is "Financial Manipulation" riding on his arrogant, snorting steed, "Speculative Instruments."

Hope I haven't broken any rules of the contest by clarifying what I was trying to say. I am educated and experienced in Interior Architecture and my interests are in the Arts and Wholistic Medicine. It has only been at this table that a burning desire to understand world finances has been seeded. Sorry It takes me awhile to express what I feel and think as I listen to all of you.
Thanks, Julia

Buena Fe

(04/05/1999; 13:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4305)

#####The Fifth Horseman#####

Woe.. what great posts this forum does generate! My compliments and respect to all, especially M.K.. May truth, wisdom and Grace always adorn this hall!!

OK, to the CORE (heart) of the issue... (IMHO of course)

From my perspective the first horseman to the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, ............. are all orchestrated/directed by the same character "The Lawless One". A dark rider in deed, he is the father of all lies, a blood thirsty creature burning with envy, consumed with fear to such an extent that he can't help but ooze it out every where he goes. (And yes he is extraterrestrial in a sense, better described as immaterial). In fact as I ponder this I believe you could call "fear" one of his principle "steads". He hates mankind with such passion that their destruction is his unilateral goal. The institutions of men "Political" - Presidents, UN, NATO, etc., and "Financial" - Banking, IMF, WTO, etc., (dare I even suggest one of the most sublime/subtle....Religion) are all just usable/disposable vehicles through which he pits men against men, family against family, nation against nation, with the end game being uniform throughout = "DEATH".
Hee Hee.... here is where it gets good, his reign of terror is almost over!, yet before his end (which is certain) he will throw everthing within his arsenal at us. It is sure to be a painful period, with much chaos & bloodshed unfortunately, but in the end the "PRINCE OF PEACE" shall appear with sword drawn and judgement declared, to usher in an eternal Kingdom. YeeHa.... comeon LORD lets gettim!
The only weapons he has no defence against are faith, hope and love!
Got FAITH? Get Some!!

Gandalf the White

(04/05/1999; 13:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4306)

Julia and (by some) aka Yellowbird

Happy to see you back at the TableRound ! Meese thinks dat Youse are just the one for whom Michael has been looking ! Dis place sure needs organizing and redecorating ! Tis dark and drab and the TableRound needs lots mo chairs. Please liven it up with youse's abilities -- a touch of Gold color in the wallcoverings would be my suggestion.
Send me the bill ! Thanks GW
<;-)

USAGOLD

(04/05/1999; 13:55:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4307)

Julia......

No problem. It's a better ending.

Even those who pay no attention to these markets whatsoever can say confidently: "Something's wrong. This cannot go on." Their instincts are telling them to beware. Most of those who call themselves experts have been shaking their heads in disbelief since the stock market went past 5000. But that is the nature of manias, isn't it?

I put an Ed Stein cartoon in the upcoming newsletter of two brokers standing on the ledge in New York. One jumps off but, instead of plummeting to the street below, he goes up -- like a rocketship. The other says "Wall Street is not what it used to be." True enough: Wall Street is not what it used to be.

nugget0

(04/05/1999; 14:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4308)

the 5th horseman

THE fifth horseman is called vengeance
he was planted among you from birth,
he is the sleeper...the electronic warrior.
his mission was to plant the fatal seeds
throughout your computer systems....
these will bear fruit an hour BEFORE midnight...
on the last day of this year, 1999.
He left the com lines open in his place of
employment so the infection could be
transmitted, ensuring total chaos...

nugget101

(04/05/1999; 14:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4309)

********* gold 283.65 **********

Quixote

(04/05/1999; 14:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4310)

##### $ 281.05 #####

canamami

(04/05/1999; 15:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4311)

Fifth Horseman

Hello everybody.

I'd like to thank MK for extending the deadline, to allow those of us returning from the holidays to participate.

Introduction

My candidate for the Fifth Horseman of the Fiat Apocalypse, ushering in the Golden Age of Gold is: Eurasian resurgence - specifically, I am referring to the economic, cultural and political resurgence of Japan in particular, the Far East in general, China, India and Russia. These areas have enormous human capital and natural resources, but presently are suffering greatly. Their people want to ameliorate their situations desperately, and will soon begin to do so. This resurgence will set into motion a string of consequences which will lead to the dethroning of the $U.S., and accord to gold a significant role in the ensuing world order. The result will be a substantial increase in the POG as expressed in $U.S. I will develop this thesis herein.

Japan

First, I will describe Japan's role in my scenario, whose role in the short-term is probably most important. I believe the old post-war Japan is dying, and a new re-invigorated Japan is waiting to be (re)born.

First, the old, corrupt, crony-based political system is collapsing. This system - a form of secretive, neo-feudal politics grafted onto a democratic structure - is in its death throes, and is being replaced by a more modern and transparent political culture. The LDP now faces an opposition capable of unseating it and, to survive in this new environment, the LDP is becoming more democratic. If it doesn't, it will perish. (In any event, the LDP can no longer serve as the hub connecting the spokes of the old order.) In short, a more open and democratic Japan is being born and, consequently, the U.S. is losing one of its comparative advantages vis-a-vis Japan.

Second, the reforms in the political system will lead to reforms in the economic system. The political-bureaucratic-managerial oligarchy - the breeding-ground of cronyism, bail-outs and destructive central planning decisions - will not be able to survive in the new order. The Japanese have suffered for too long, and finally are taking action to alleviate their sufferings. The new, more democratic Japan will soon deal with its banking crisis, which is the ultimate and discrediting failure of the old oligarchy. (By way of analogy, defeat in the Falklands' War constituted the ultimate discrediting of the Argentine military government, and led to the democratization and eventual liberalization of Argentina). The resolution of the banking reforms will signal the (re)birth of the new Japan. This new, more open Japan will require accurate information to govern itself. In particular, the new, freer but more vulnerable Japanese businessmen will need accurate market information to make intelligent economic decisions. They will demand that the true cost of capital be made manifest, as cheap capital from the government-cum-oligarchy will no longer be there. Thus, Japanese interest rates will rise, a trend which will be exacerbated by the inflation which will flow from the current increase in the Japanese money supply, coupled with the repatriation of capital to Japan. In short, the old Japan Inc. is dying, discredited by its colossal screw-ups, and a more free-market Japan will arise, one which requires accurate economic information which only a free market will provide.

Third, the Japanese will become freer and more creative as individuals, and a society. The pessimism of the war generation (defeat) and first post-war generation (excessive self-denial and regimentation, necessary for rebuilding and development but dysfunctional now) will be replaced by a more optimistic outlook. Also, the demise of lifetime employment means the Japanese will be forced to develop what Keynes called the "animal instincts of the entrepreneur". The acquisition of these "animal instincts" will be married to the excellent personal values of the Japanese - a formidable combination. Although more freedom will lead to some increase in dysfunctional behaviour, Japanese crime, drug-use, marital break-up and illegitimacy rates will not even remotely approach those of the U.S. The economic costs of these cultural weaknesses must not be under-estimated, nor should the economic value of their absence.

Resurgent societies require capital. Unlike most of the Far East, the Japanese already have lots of capital - sitting right now in U.S. investments. Resurgent and emerging societies provide excellent investment opportunities, as opposed to mature, self-satisfied societies which have lost or are losing their "life-force". Guess which societies will soon be resurgent and emerging? Guess which are mature and self-satisfied? I will return to Japan later in this post.

Far East (outside Japan)

This is too broad and diverse an area for a truly common analysis. However, most of these countries are committed to pursuing a policy of economic growth. Most are undergoing political transformations of some sort to a more open and democratic system, which generally leads to a more open market, including fairer competition and less cronyism. There is a symbiotic and mutually reinforcing cultural component to these desires for economic and political renewal. In short, these generally are emerging societies, not tired societies. They need capital but, unlike Japan, have none. (Of course, this is not uniformly true; for example, the little Chinas - Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore). Countries which need capital are loathe to export it. Hence, there may be a temptation to repudiate or cancel repayments of loans - both interest and capital - or to proscribe the repatriation of profits. Private corporations laden with foreign debt could be allowed to go bankrupt (as any country is permitted to allow corporations to do) without inviting retaliation. This could impact on the value of First World financial stocks, etc., and enhance gold's role as a safe haven. These countries could still provide an attractive high risk investment to investors, providing competition to U.S. investments, which could help the POG.

China

Although China is not moving towards political pluralism, it is attempting to weed out corruption and regularize its legal system, government administration and its private economy. The economy has recently been slowing down, though this is still a country determined to move forward. As an emerging country, it is loathe to export capital, though it can still provide an attractive investment to high risk investors. The Chinese are successful entrepreneurs in all countries except mainland China itself, but this is changing. If an accommodation with Taiwan can be reached, Taiwanese capital and know-how will be unleashed on and have access to its natural market.

China's particular importance flows from its size, which now translates into military and economic power. China has massive foreign reserves, especially $U.S. There may be economic reasons to diversify into gold. However, China has political reasons to buy gold with $U.S. It wants to end the unipolar, U.S.-as-sole-superpower era, partly because its elite wants China to eventually be the dominant power. China's ambitions will end the peace dividend, increasing U.S. military expenditures and thereby harming the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar, and increasing the POG. (Note Clinton's desire to build an ABM system, which is contrary to SALT, but which reflects the current multi-polar nuclear reality). The Chinese are also fond of gold as individuals, and their leadership appears to share this sentiment. China is the one country for whom gold purchases made with $U.S. may make economic, political and cultural sense.

India

India is somewhat similar to China. It is a populous emerging country. Its leaders are politically ambitious, and are pursuing a somewhat militaristic course. There is also a desire to end American hegemony. (India tended to be a Soviet ally during the Cold War). Like the Chinese, Indians like gold. However, the Indian government hates it because it represents an export of capital (anathema to an emerging country), owing to India's lack of gold reserves. The Indian government therefore is unlikely to act in a manner beneficial to gold, though individual Indians will attempt to buy more and more gold as they become wealthier. Indian military expansion may contribute to an increase in U.S. military spending.

Russia

Russia possesses enormous human capital, in a very well-educated population. It also possesses incredible natural resources. Liberalization has not been a success, and the Russians will turn to a strongman (I predict Lebed) to restore order. Order is a pre-requisite to economic growth. Pinochet is Lebed's hero. Russia will not become communist again, nor do I anticipate that it will abandon the structures of democracy. (A strongman and a democracy are not incompatible; even in a mature democracy like Canada, former Prime Minister Trudeau achieved his greatest popularity when he imposed quasi-martial law).

There is a good chance Russia will repudiate its debt, and rely on its own human and natural resources to rebuild itself. In a few years, investors will forget the repudiation, and invest again. However, in the short term, the Russian repudiation will shake First World markets. This will help gold. Also, a Russian repudiation means that Russia will not sell off gold to pay off debt. It may sell gold to finance current purchases, but not existing debt. This could help the POG. If the Russians use their resources for themselves, in some sort of autarky, this will help commodity prices, helping the POG. Russia's desire to be a power again will further kill the "peace dividend", weakening the $U.S.

Conclusion

Times have been turbulent around the world, particularly economically. In turbulent times, money flows to a safe haven. The United States is the ultimate safe haven. It has a stable political and judicial system. It has a highly developed economy, and an elaborate system of protecting investors. It deals fairly with foreign investors. It is militarily unassailable. The rest of the world acquiesced in its world leadership because it exercised power responsibly, though in the case of China the acquiescence probably flowed from an inability to challenge the U.S. At the same time, Europe was going through a period of economic reorganization, and Japan was in a cultural, economic and political depression. The U.S. was the only place to be. The world's wealth thus flowed to the U.S., driving up the U.S. dollar, driving down commodity prices, and generally fueling a boom of unique mixture - simultaneous high share prices (as measured by the major indexes), low interest rates and no price inflation to speak of.

This influx of foreign capital coincided with a demographic bulge in the U.S. - the boomers hitting their high saving, low spending years. Well, where to put this money? The Motley Fool had the answer: Index Funds! Why, you were guaranteed to match the market, with the benefit of a low MER. You couldn't go wrong! In under thirty years, the boomer generation which transcended history
graduated from "plastics" to "index funds". The influx of boomer money created cost-push asset inflation in the stocks comprising the major indexes. Throw in the influx of foreign money, and the wisdom of the Fool could not be questioned. To a generation of expanding hips and paunches, and declining libido, it was better than sex.

The trouble is, there's a fatal flaw to the theory. And the error is this: When one invests, one becomes an player, not merely a spectator. What one does affects the outcome. Thus, the flood of money into the index funds created a world-historical asset inflation in the big name stocks. George Gilder, an innovative thinker who also synthesized the best of Rand and traditional morality, teaches us: Inflation is like radio static, garbling the market's messages. He was writing of price inflation, but I submit the same is true of asset inflation. The high index valuations deceive investors,causing them to believe that the market is the place to be. They also mask underlying weaknesses in U.S. cultural values, and the U.S economy.

The current market valuations are based on a best case scenario situation. The pillars are low price inflation, low interest rates, boomer money flowing into the market, foreign (especially Japanese) money flowing into the market, and low military spending flowing from unquestioned U.S. leadership. Should one of these pillars fail, the entire edifice comes crashing down.

I believe the first pillar to crumble will be the resurgence of the powers I described above, especially Japan. Japan will soon snap out of its cultural, political and economic depression. In fact, it's happening right now. To finance its resurgence, it will repatriate its capital. A huge amount of money will be sucked out of the U.S., driving down the major indexes. Also, U.S. interest rates will rise, in an attempt to staunch the flow of money out of the U.S., and further driving down index valuations.

As the phony boom was supported by these mutually supporting pillars, the collapse of one will contribute to the collapse of them all. The boomers will become unnerved. Things won't straighten out like they're supposed to, like they did in the fall of '98. The precious, johnny-come-lately boomer savings will continue to decline in value. The received wisdom will be questioned. Maybe the Fool is a fool after all. The boomers will panic. The markets will crash.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch called the international community, U.S. unipolarism is being questioned (the Chinese and the Russians never much liked it in the first place). Billy Boy doesn't have the touch with the world situation like he does with the ladies. Even friendly countries are questioning the recent exercises of U.S. military power. What if the U.S. administration decides they want to intervene in our affairs someday? Clinton intervened in Haiti at the behest of the U.S. Black Congressional Caucus, when no overriding U.S. interest was at stake, and no compelling good guys/bad guys moral situation existing. What if some interest group decides our country should be invaded? Who wants to exist at American sufferance? The world begins to accept the need for a countervailing power. China steps up to the plate. Part of the strategy is to sell U.S. dollars for gold, a true trans-national asset.

Cheap oil prices constitute part of the commodity pillar of the unipolar boom. OPEC has succeeded in raising the price, for the time being. In turn, this drives up price inflation, which drives up interest rates, which drives down index valuations, which weakens the U.S. dollar, etc.

The bottom line is this: Gold is less valuable in a unipolar world, dominated by one country both economically and militarily. This is especially true when the U.S. is the dominant power. The U.S. itself was untouched by war. There was no need to flee invading or occupying armies. The U.S. has the world's most stable political, judicial and economic system. The U.S. dollar has never been, and will never be, disestablished as a national and international currency. Americans, the world's wealthiest people during the boom, saw and see little reason to hold gold, especially when times are good.

The shift to a multi-polar world will see a shift in wealth and power to the peoples of Asia. Increasing oil prices will put more money in the hands of the oil states, also. These people value gold more highly than Americans. Consequently, as these people become wealthier, the grassroots demand for gold will increase, contemporaneous with a decline in the $U.S.

On an official level, gold will acquire a new role as an impartial, trans-national arbiter among competing major currencies. At present, the world's currencies are valued in the light of and in relation to the U.S. dollar. However, even in the years of U.S economic hegemony, the U.S dollar was valued in the light of the gold ounce. The gold ounce was not valued in the light of the dollar. This little tidbit illustrates gold's primordial role as an arbiter of competing currencies. Gold's future role will be as the impartial, trans-national standard by which currencies are judged. All currencies will be measured in the light of the gold ounce, a necessary function because when national currencies compete to be the reserve currency (as happened between sterling and the U.S. dollar in the 1920's), there is great volatility. Gold may serve to minimize unnecessary volatility.

Finally, I do not believe the Fed and the ECB will prevent gold from serving this role, by dumping their gold reserves. The shift in economic power back to Asia will be so palpable that manipulations of the gold price will not hide the underlying reality. Moreover, if gold is valuable, this will benefit the ECB and the Fed, who hold the world's largest gold reserves. Moreover, the U.S. has the potential to be the world's leading low-cost gold producer, so there will be an incentive not to interfere with gold. In addition, groups like GATA may inoculate gold from such manipulation in the future, by generating preventative publicity.

Summary

The Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse will be the re-emergence of Eurasia, especially Japan, and the ensuing multi-polar world.

canamami

(04/05/1999; 15:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4312)

June Gold - April 9, 1999

**********$283.90***********

canamami

(04/05/1999; 16:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4313)

*****Fifth Horseman - Post 4311*****

I just noticed that I should have posted "****" on post 4311; it was intended for the contest.

To clarify, when I said that the U.S. dollar is measured in relation to the gold ounce, I meant to say that the gold ounce, not the dollar, is the constant. The gold ounce always stays the same; it is the dollar value which fluctuates. Contrariwise, when comparing the $Can. to the $U.S., the $U.S. is the constant, while the $Can. fluctuates.

TownCrier

(04/05/1999; 16:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4314)

F(YA)WN(!) Closing N.Y. Metals

New York-April 5-FWN--Silver futures slid on technical
selling here today, with sell stops triggered, while gold
also ended up softer on light fund selling, sources
reported.
The June gold futures contract slid $1.70 to
$280.30.
"There seemed to be some light fund selling," said one
analyst, adding that some technical weakness set in when the
June futures moved through last week's $280.60 low.
Another contact said there might have been some
influence from a firmer U.S. dollar, which has gained 1.05
yen to Y121.76.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

YGM

(04/05/1999; 17:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4315)

IMF Info Site

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htmGold in The I.M.F.

YGM

(04/05/1999; 17:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4316)

Another good site--

http://www.aci.net/Kalliste/As w/ Financial Warfare page site (MAI) I like to post
some of these sites from time to time as there are many
who are not aware--Yet!
* This one belongs to J. Orin Grabbe

jim nickles

(04/05/1999; 17:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4317)

#####june gold close april 9th ######

I guess 299.95

Silver Tongue

(04/05/1999; 17:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4318)

Price of gold April 9

I don't see it surging before April 9. My number for June Gold is $284.15

The Stranger

(04/05/1999; 18:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4319)

canamami

WOW! WHO ARE YOU, MAN? That is the BEST thing I have read ANYWHERE, EVER! PLEASE DON'T STOP!

Aragorn III

(04/05/1999; 18:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4320)

Canamami...a thorough and lucid post.

Though you make it look as natural as breathing, your efforts are recognized and appreciated.

Goldhearts should take a step back and consider perhaps ALL of the mentioned "horsemen" are poised to ride down like thunder in one degree or another. Poised atop a small rise, I have one foot upon the closed lid of a chest that contains the physical manifestation of all my past deeds and labors. Honest work, honestly rewarded. To flee is a foreign notion, for the weight would not allow success. But the "burden" is not so. Rather, it is a comfort--even as the dust cloud grows near and the razor hooves blur the division between earth and air. As the terrific cacophony of the ruinous onslaught swells to envelope my vulnerable outpost, I rest my hand lightly upon the hilt of my golden blade. As I exhale, the leading edge of the roaring, jagged and churning destruction enters my circle of reach...and time stands still; sound ends. I did not brace for impact, I did not draw my sword. I endured...with the same fierce determination as an old man feeding breadcrumbs to birds from a park bench. Frame by frame the motion, but not sound, was restored to the hell-bent host as it silently, almost gracefully accommodated my encroachment within its tangled ranks. As time rolled on, its full speed upon approach was again matched; and as the last of the mass passed me by untouched, the deafening din was resumed as it carved a scarred path of havoc into the land beyond. The flowering stem of an insignificant plant growing near the heel of my boot as I stood looking down would surely never comprehend its rare fortune in the company it found that day. I shouldered my life and embarked on my trek across the racked and ruined landscape, leaving the delicately petaled stem to sway in the breeze under the warm sun. There lies hope in its seeds.

got gold?

USAGOLD

(04/05/1999; 19:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4321)

cananami...

I just now had the time to read your extraordinary post. Top to bottom, I find both the logic and presentation compelling. No question the Asian situation is in transition and your analysis reminds me of the Asian junxtaposition of danger and opportunity. I will add a small point to consider that has occupied me the past few days as the U.S. invovlement escalates in the Balkans. If the United States persists in this depletion of limited military resources, we could see a stripping of U.S. power strategically to the point that the playing field is leveled between Russian, China and the United States...........Then what?

As it is, I dip my standard to you, cananami. See this sword raised high in salute. I hope we hear more from you and on a regular basis.

USAGOLD

(04/05/1999; 19:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4322)

Sorry....canamami

I got your handle wrong.

YGM

(04/05/1999; 19:48:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4323)

@canamami- Very, Very Profound Posting--

Where does one sign up for tutoring in your economics and
writing (self-expression) classes???---- I will be watching
closely for your future writings, as will many others I'm sure.
I hope you keep it up!--YGM

Tomcat

(04/05/1999; 19:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4324)

Propping up weakened currencies and the POG

Occassionally you hear about a country selling gold to to prop up their currency. Today there was an article about this happening in Kazatstan. Thanks to TownCrier for his post.

Does anyone know if this is a common event? If many countries become weaker economically, will there be more selling of gold to prop up their currencies? The logic seems to say, that weakened currencies create a drop in the POG. Could someone critique this view or expand on it.

The Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse

(04/05/1999; 20:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4325)

A Word to My Friends....

It is I who you seek.
It is I who you wish to identify.
I am here.
I am a component of all that you use; all that you understand.
When you go to the gas station, I am there.
When you to the grocery story, it is I who drives higher the price of all you buy.
When you shop a piece of clothing, it is I who causes the first tag to be covered and now a higher one to appear.
Rocketing interest rates, collapsing stocks, cratering bond values -- all are my progeny.
Price inflation?
I AM price inflation!
I am your lifeblood.
You can no more live without me than the blood that courses through your veins.
Watch.
I am the chief component of all your inflation indices; a factor in all your economic planning.
Already you can see me change your way of life.
Now it is I who calls the economic agenda.
When you look to your disastrous trade deficit, look again. It is now beyond your control.
When you look to your government debt, look again. It is now once more out of control
And your dollar? Ha! You amuse me!
I am your Fifth Horseman.
I am Rising Oil.
And I am here.

backlash

(04/05/1999; 21:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4326)

jinx44 (4/4/99; 23:08:52MDT - Msg ID:4272)

Re: your post regarding HAARP

Most enlightening indeed ! I wish to pass your post on to one friend who is highly interested in that venture. Unfortunately, I think he has received more speculation and inuendo than facts. He most assuredly will inquire of the validity of your post. Could you please give me some data on where you got the information or your qualifications for posting the information. I personally found it to be logical and reasonable without a perceivable bias. Likewise the presentation was straightforward and presented both sides of the controversial points. Thanks in advance.

Best Wishes, bl

P.S. - canamami for Secretary of State! A much better understandiing of the world than the one we have now.

Peter Asher

(04/05/1999; 21:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4327)

FYI

My daughter has received this E-mail and is sending it to her full address book. I have no opinion on this.----Peter

Dear Friends,
>
> I normally do not indulge in e-mail chain letters. In case this is
> something you would like to participate in, I am making an exception in
> this case.
>
> >THE GREAT "GAS OUT"
> >It's time we did something about the price
> >of gasoline in America! We are all sick and
> >tired of high prices when there are literally
> >millions of gallons in storage.
> >Know what I found out? If there was just
> >ONE day when no one purchased any
> >gasoline, prices would drop drastically.
> >The so-called oil cartel has decided to
> >slow production by some 2 million barrels
> >per day to drive up the price. I have decided
> >to see how many Americans we can get
> >to NOT BUY ANY GASOLINE on one
> >particular day!
> >Let's have a GAS OUT! Do not buy any
> >gasoline on APRIL 30, 1999!!!!!
> >Buy on Thursday before, or Saturday after.
> >Do not buy any gasoline on FRIDAY,
> >APRIL 30, 1999.
> >Wanna help? Send this message to
> >everyone you know. Ask them to do the same.
> >All we need is a few million to participate in
> >order to make a difference.
> >
>

High Density

(04/05/1999; 22:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4328)

Greetings to the Forum!

Gold. It is of the earth. Pure. Eternal.

To Tomacats query I would say this: Do the Kazaks have business to do in their country still? Financial obligations to fulfill? Indeed they must. The Indonesians had business last year, too. So did the Thai's and the rest of the Tiger nations. Yet their currencies went POOOOF! Those participants in those economies that HAD GOLD were able to continue to participate! The value of those currencies with respect to the dollar went in the toilet, but the value with respect to gold went to the sky! So they sold their gold in order to continue to participate in their economies. That is what anybody would do when faced with financial obligations in their worthless, wallpaper currency--sell your stash of gold, and quite possibly, SATISFY THE OBLIGATION!!

I am no economist, but I understand what those who were prepared for the armageddon of asia did, at least those that were prepared with gold. By weathering the storm with the assistance of gold I'm sure their are many SUCCESS stories over there!

This is my first post. I thank USA GOLD and Michael for an excellent venue. Michael, this is good business. Your company is one of the most important financial outlets in the country. Your offer of a free book to go along with an interesting web site to visit is very, very good business! My sincere compliments to you, and to all the interesting folk who post.

Here in the states, I think we are in a stretch of years where the low gold price represents a unique opportunity to buy and accumulate. By all rational measures, every ounce bought at these prices ought to be only half an ounce! But its not. These days are really a very, very unique opportunity. When the CHANGE comes, it will be damaging to those caught unprepared.

One final thought. I forget how much the Persian Gulf adventure cost in toto. Was it $100 billion? Whatever it was, it was a world financial partnership, with the U.S. (who else?) providing the lions share of hard assets, and the major economies paying their fair share. For example, I recall the Japanese kicked in some $7 billion. Now, the Clinton regime has entered into a major military operation without any financial partners! This cost, along with all the rest of the regimes military extravaganzaa's, is going to be a tremendous burden. The debt is delicate. Yeah, this guy is going in the history books, but not the way he wants.

I fill my glass with wine. Goodnight.

YGM

(04/05/1999; 22:09:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4329)

Billions For Bankers-

http://www.norfed.org/debtfor.htmDebt For The People. (NORFED Site)

NORTH OF 49

(04/05/1999; 22:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4330)

Peter Asher

I was surprised, I guess even amazed at your post with the "chain letter", as two identical versions showed up here "in the middle of nowhere" over the weekend.

The power of this internet system is truly awesome!! After linear, then exponential, what comes next--vertical??

Sixteen hours, twenty-two minutes and forty-eight,--seven, --six seconds and I'll me making my own linear trail outa here!!! Is that rational or irrational thinking??

No49

Peter Asher

(04/06/1999; 00:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4331)

Challenge to the 5th Horseman!

The people of America are aware of your march upon them and they know they are in grave danger. They suffer from the famous truth, "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it." However, their history also tells of rising up from the ashes of devastation to renew their power and conquer that which has nearly overwhelmed them. When you last struck, they rallied by driving slower. They bought smaller vehicles (from another of your enemies). They allowed their members to pay less tribute in return for heating their homes and water with the sun. They have lessened their dependency on the dark side by creating vast arrays of winged towers at which even the great Quixote would marvel.

This time your power is indeed greater and this nation's peoples more weak and foolish. But do not think this assures your victory!

We have a mighty king who sits a throne in a modern mile-high Camelot. He and his powerful Round Table of knights bring words of truth and wisdom to all the land. Even as you go forth to do battle, they have built a foundation of defense by directing the multitudes to arm themselves with hoards of the metal of the Gods. When your onslaught debases their dollar, it will have no effect upon these mighty ramparts.

Through their Forum, and others throughout the land, The force of light will be revealed. On the verdant plains north of their capital city lie the fortresses of their Jedi Knights. One is known as NASA, another as CSC, and there are more. Since your last assault, they have made great progress in creating Light Sabers to be placed in the sky. These microwave satellites will beam down the sun's own life blood and send it coursing through veins of red metal throughout the land. Other redoubts have bred new steeds which have no need of your dark force, for they live on the electrons of the light itself.

At first, your attack will appear to be victorious. Decades of complacency have weakened their resolve. But these people become strong when threatened as a whole, and they amaze the gods themselves with the power that emanates from common cause.

This will not occur at once, but word will spread. The more havoc you wreck upon them, the more powerful they will become! They will rise above their folly of spending their productive energies on war, pleasure, and the appeasement of the slothful. They will come to see that this capability should be flowed to the establishment of "The Final Frontier."

The heavens will come to Earth. The power of the angels will course throughout the land, heating and lighting their homes and nourishing their steeds as they rest for the night. The old will give way to the new.

You, Oil, may plunge us into night. But we will have our day!

For the sun also rises!

Copyright 4/5/99 by Peter Asher

Peter Asher

(04/06/1999; 00:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4332)

North of 49

Rational for you and emotional for all of us. Let us know as soon as you are home, safe and sound

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 01:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4333)

Exxon ,Mobil to pursue Saudi bid-WSJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990406/bd.htmlSaudi Arabia has been encouraging Western oil companies to invest in its energy business.

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 01:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4334)

Kazakstan Currency Plummets

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990405/kazakstan__1.htmlPanicky conversion of Kazak deposits to hard currency by bank customers

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 01:14:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4335)

Russian Crisis Pushes US Firms Out

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990405/russia_us__2.htmlBrief currency discussion...dollars and rubles

SteveH

(04/06/1999; 03:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4336)

Two worthy posts from that other forum

from kitco:

oh and June gold now...$280.40

Date: Mon Apr 05 1999 21:39
D.A. (specs and such) ID#7568:
Copyright � 1999 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ted:

My definition of speculator in a commodity market, would be one that takes on price risk in the market with no attendant business function. I would not regard miners, or fabricaters, as speculators, even if they do alter their price risk in the market, because their positions always run counter to their natural exposure in the market. One does not hear of gold mining companies buying gold on the open market to stockpile in the event of a price increase.

I agree with you that when central banks take on the role of speculators then something is gravely amiss. Central banks are not supposed to be profit centers, like some forex desk at a bank. I am also hugely disturbed by the 'too big to fail' mantra. When nothing is allowed to break, it greatly increases the odds that the whole thing will go south.

The implicit and explicit guarantees to the financial system made by governments is probably the single biggest 'policy' mistake made collectively by governments of the world. We have seen this magic at work in SE Asia and Japan.

Getting back to gold, silver and the leasing game. As far as I know, the silver leasing market is much, much smaller than the gold leasing market. While there is a certain amount of material available to borrow and sell into the market, by and large, it is hard to borrow great quantities of silver. My bullish case for silver over the past few years has been the obvious one of declining inventories amidst a continual supply/demand deficit. The fundamentals shifted pretty strongly off the whole Asian debacle, to a point where the market was probably in balance over the past 18 months. If the global economy continues the healing process, then the rebound in demand will likely push the market back into deep deficit and the game will begin anew.

The price pattern for silver is odd, given that there has definitely been a very large drawdown in stocks. However, this by itself is not enough to hang ones hat on the leasing / manipulation theory. The pattern of commodity markets in general in the 1990's, is that commodities that get in short supply do not react until extremely late in the stock drawdown. Even though the documentation of the declines is public knowledge, the commercial users never ever react to potential shortages. They only show up when the cupboard is almost bare. For examples one need only look back at coffee, lumber, natural gas, corn, and palladium to see this in action. There was clearly no great leasing scam going on in these markets, yet they all reacted the same way, from near historic lows, to blowout highs in under a years time.

The silver market is most definitely manipulated, but only in the short term. The sport is generally to wait until a few of the trendfollowing funds pile in on one side of the market, and then run the market against them trying to hit their stops. This has been going on for quite some time.

In the FWIW department the risk, return numbers in sub $5 silver are very good indeed. I can't imagine the stuff going under the 93 low of 3.65 which gives about $1.25 on the downside. The upside is way higher than that. I haven't owned any of the stuff since it broke 5.40 on the downside last spring/summer but that is going to change very shortly. Other than the relentless rise in the dollar there are not a lot of negatives for silver.

No doubt that unless something big and ugly comes down the pipe, central banks will never again hold as much physical gold as in the past. The 'loans' will never be payed back in gold but in currency. Somewhere along the line central banks will anounce huge 'sales' of gold to the people who borrowed the metal. No physical gold will move, but the leases will be booked as the sales that they really are. Don't think of the loans as loans but as sales with a defered payment in currency, and an unexercisable gold call option attached. When the CB's have finished 'loaning' because there is none left, then a very large bull market in gold will be underway. Until then, who knows.

I wish that I had some more insight into these markets but to date no one no one has consulted me before they begin to buy or sell

Date: Mon Apr 05 1999 21:35
HighRise (ABX, I just received my report.) ID#401460:
Copyright � 1999 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Some observations:

ABX - Barrick Gold
Not Y2K compliant. And doesn't really care.

International Advisory Board
Senator Howard H. BakerJr.
Sec. of the Treasury USA?
Vernon E, Jordon, Jr. The President of the USA's best friend.
Senior Partner with Robert Strauss, former Sec. State USA
President George Bush no longer on the list

ABX has an unsecured credit line of one billion dollars at LIBOR +0.15%.
NOTE: "As at December 31, 1998 and 1997, no amounts were drawn under the credit agreement."

When you think about this, why raise the price of gold if the money needed to mine is so plentiful and cheap. Raising the price of Gold would mean that inflation or cost of money is going up. "$43 million of interest was capitalized to properties in development" and they didn't even touch the one billion LOC.

Company is using Derivative trades as hedging. "Long term written call options, which can be converted into spot deferred contracts at the strike price in the event the option is exercised, are designated and accounted for as hedges of future production." "Premiums received are recognized in gold sales at the designated date." And the company is making money in a down gold market! "costs should fall to $125/ounce" they have 48 million ounces that are profitable at a gold price of $300 per ounce."Enough said,

My guess is that they are using derivatives "not for trading purposes" but to lower the cost per ounce, sounds like the same thing to me. If it smells like a goat's a** it probably is a Goat's a**.

Gold may stay below $300 / ounce for some time if the majors are able to produce and make money below that point. This allows them to gobble up smaller producers. ABX has a billion dollar war chest it hasn't even touched.

HighRise

SteveH

(04/06/1999; 06:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4337)

June gold now...

$280.50, but was $280.70 on NY open.

Goldfly

(04/06/1999; 08:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4338)

Mr. Fifth Horseman

http://park.org/Kazakhstan/horse.html
Do you foresee grocers lining their meat counters with horsemeat as happened in the late 70's?

If so, I have a phalanx of old warhorses to auction off!

GF

USAGOLD

(04/06/1999; 09:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4339)

Today's Gold Market Report -- Some Insights

Market Update (5/6/99)....We have technical problems today getting the Daily Report over to the server, so I will post today's report here. Not that there's much in the way of news to report. There was just a flash wire on Reuters that Yugoslavia has just declared a unilateral cease fire. There was no story just a headline, so we don't know the details.

Gold is up 60� on the news and the euro is recovering as well after hitting a seven month low yesterday. The dollar is in retreat against most major currencies in today's early going. Reuters quotes Wolfgang Wrxesnick, metals analyst for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Franfurt as saying, "Now that we have broken previous support at $282.00, I do not see a lot of support on the downside until we reach the August lows, and that's really the problem. Fundamentally, I still think it's not justified but it's a fund play again and the technical side supports them."

Some newspapers and wire services are reporting that the news of a potential Swiss gold sale have hit the market hard. The Swiss plan to sell 1300 tons of gold over a ten year period beginning sometime after 2000, if (and this is a big "if") a referendum is approved by Swiss. In the first instance we do not know that the referendum will pass in a country where a large proportion of citizens own gold for asset preservation purposes; and secondly, if it does, occur it will bring only a small amount of gold to the market annually -- about 130 tons. In a more rational time, these sales andor hoped for sales would be treated for what they are -- non-events.

No, it isn't the Swiss situation or the IMF situation that has moved gold in a southerly direction, it is a momentum selling triggered by the big hedge funds along with international bank and brokerage firm forex departments. The Swiss and IMF news simply provides convenient cover for these operations and the financial press continues to be all to willing to go along with the charade.

The steady anti-gold mantra of Bill O�Neil at Merrill Lynch (which seems to appear in some major gold report somewhere almost daily) continues to have all the tone and tenor of a sales pitch directed toward the central banks to sell or lease their gold. What does this sound like to you? "Our indications." O�Neill tells Bridge News, "are that [European central banks] might like to at least have the option to sell gold this year, given that there could be IMF and Swiss sales in 2000," he said. Very likely that is probably part of a report he received from one his crew of brokers that work on the central banks daily in an effort to persuade them to sell or lease gold. When you understand this, his daily comments begin to make quite a bit of sense. Has anyone ever heard Bill O�Neil say something positive about gold? There's a reasons for this.

I think it is important for gold investors to understand that the gold lending (and sales) business is commission driven and you cannot garner those commission unless you persuade somebody to sell or lease. I recently heard an estimate from a good source that 30% of the gold leased has gone to speculative entities like LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) which cannot pay the gold back through legitimate gold acquisition activities, but can only pay it back if their speculative gambles pay off. What some of the firms which promote these "opportunities" will have to come to gip with at some point along the way is that the gold "well" is not bottomless. There will come a point where the central banks will say we can't go any further.

Since we don't have the numbers -- they are a closely guarded secret except for Switzerland's recently announced 187 tons leased -- we are shooting in the dark and don't know when that day will come. When you hear the steady mantra from people like Merrill's Bill O�Neil with its hint of desperation, you get the impression that somebody at the world's largest brokerage firm is under the same inpression I am.

More later if the news in the Balkans causes a change in market psychology.

Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 10:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4340)

Bridge Gold News

Bucharest--Apr 6--National Bank of Romania Chief Economist Valentin Lazea
today said the planned gold-for-cash swap had been held up by the
reimbursement of nearly $1 billion of bonds maturing in May and June. Lazea
referred to the gold reserve as being on "negative pledge." By Vladimir
Rodina, Bridge News

Sydney--Apr 6--The US dlr/yen's fallback in Asia today sent spot gold
prices rebounding slightly in thin trading, dealers said. A public holiday
in Hong Kong continued to subdue Asian trading, they said. By Rieko Suda,
Bridge News

Mumbai--Apr 5--Some Indian state-owned banks along with a foreign
consultant will set up a gold assaying unit to assess the purity of gold in
the local market, officials at the State Bank of India and Corporation Bank
said. By Beverly Mathews, Bridge News

New York--Apr 5--While not yet a bull market, the commodities complex has
seen the lows for this cycle, with the complex as a whole being pulled
higher by improving sentiment in oil, according to a monthly report by UK
brokers GNI. "Overall, there has been a sufficient turnaround in the global
economy to warrant the categorical statement that we have seen the lows in
commodity prices for this cycle," GNI said in its April Commodity
Perspective report. By Ross Allen, Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 11:05:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4341)

U.S. growth cannot support world economy-Summers

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990406/sg.htmlCrisis from lending too much money that did not generate capacity to repay.

YGM

(04/06/1999; 11:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4342)

Another Excellent Gold Site

http://www.angelfire.com/de/goldmine/Josh Wright has an excellent site here w/ many links. I
wish all the Gold Advocate sites would link each others sites & we can unite & be stronger w/ the sharing of info.
IMHO--YGM

beesting

(04/06/1999; 12:47:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4343)

International Blackmail!

http://www.barney.co.za/reuters/april99/reserves6.htmThe following is a news release from the Central Bank of South Africa:

Combined Gold & foreign exchange reserves rose R200 million in March to R32.9 billion from Feb. R32.7 billion. The bank said its outstanding OVERSOLD POSITION in the forward book was $24.2 billion,down from $24.4 billion in Feb.

The Rand lost around 1/3rd of it's value versus the U.S. dollar last year after it was TARGETED BY SPECULATORS amid a general crisis in emerging markets. The Reserve Banks oversold position ballooned from $18 billion at the end of May(1998) to more than $25 billion in Aug. as the currency crisis hit.

Lets analyze these news releases(one more to follow):
First,Rand reserves are shown in local fiat currency-Rand.
Second,Outstanding oversold position in the forward book--Means amount we owe,or debt position. Debt position is carried on the books in $--This means U.S. fiat dollars.
Lets do a currency conversion: $24.2 billion X 6.16(current exchange rate:$1 = R6.16) = R149.072 billion.
Debt R149.062 billion minus Reserves R32.7 billion =MINUS R116.362 billion. Not anywhere near the U.S.'s debt.But I wouldn't to owe it.

Next,what do the words "targeted by speculators" imply?
It means hedge funds SHORTED the currency in the futures market driving down the value. Sound familiar???

Lets add a few things together; South Africa is the worlds largest Gold producer,derive-ing much of their Foreign Reserves from the sale of Gold(see my next post)They owe over 116 billion Rand in foreign exchange--TO HEDGE FUND AND HEDGE FUND BACKERS!!! If the price of Gold rises substantially in U.S. Fiat dollars less Gold has to be repaid on international debts as local currencies gain in value. IMHO this is the reason Gold keeps getting hammered by massive short selling driving the price down.Also see my next post............beesting

beesting

(04/06/1999; 12:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4344)

Proof of a strong demand for physical Gold.

http://www.barney.co.za/news/april99/reserves6.htmNews release states: Non residents have remained net buyers of South African financial assets.
Financial assets means GOLD and other things South Africa produces.............beesting

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 13:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4345)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Futures Helped by Softer Dollar

Futures World News - April 06, 1999 14:49
New York-April 6-FWN--The precious metals complex ended the session mostly firmer here today. Gold was helped by weakness in the U.S. dollar, while platinum was hurt by continued fund selling, sources said.

June gold closed with a gain of $1.50 to $281.80.

"I think the key to gold's modest turnaround today was the dollar," said William O'Neill, director of futures research at Merrill Lynch. "The dollar has been under a lot of pressure as the day has developed, and that has turned things around.

"The dollar had been hurting gold recently."

Euro/dollar has broke above resistance at $1.0800 and buy stops were hit, after an initial rise in the euro that was sparked by news that Serb TV had reported Yugoslavia had declared a unilateral ceae-fire, according to forex market reports.

So far today, the dollar is down 1.33 U.S. cents at $1.0844 against the euro, down 2.20 German pfennig at DM1.8039 and down 1.00 Japanese yen at Y120.73.

O'Neill added that gold was also helped by some short covering by the funds, particularly as the June futures moved through Monday's $282 high to a high for today of $282.80.

Support for June gold was put at $278.50, while resistance was pegged at $283.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 13:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4346)

WAR News: Yugoslavia declares cease-fire, West says bombings will go on

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnWMgWbSbyta2mdy&FQ=yugoslavia&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20yugoslavia%0ADefSec Cohen said that the Serb cease-fire idea is "not only completely unacceptable but it's absurd."
What a cowboy... (no offense intended to cowboys)

YGM

(04/06/1999; 14:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4347)

@ Beesting

http://www.egroups.com/list/gata/I wonder if you would send your last two posts to Gata
egroups. They would be "Greatly" appreciated.--YGM

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 14:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4348)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review

Jun gold up after Mon contract low
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Apr 6--COMEX Jun gold futures settled up $1.50 at $281.80 per
ounce, rebounding from Monday's $279.10 contract low. Traders said that gold had
become oversold amid Monday's low volume session, made thin by the absence of
London traders, due to a UK holiday.

One trader suggested that gold "shouldn't have seen such a selloff" given
that physical demand remains steady. However, Ian MacDonald executive president
at MKS Finance (USA) Inc, noted that gold remains stuck in its recent trading
range. Despite today's slight recovery from the lows, the "overall direction
appears to be down and there's no reason to suggest the market's turning at this
point--there's no reason to change the current course," he said.
Gold prices have been under downwards pressure in recent weeks, as many
world leaders, including US president Bill Clinton, have urged the International
Monetary Fund to sell some of its gold to help poorer nations.
Monday's stronger US dollar and US equities market also put pressure on
gold. Some players fear that sales from gold producing countries like Australia
and South Africa could be seen if the US dollar continues to climb against other
currencies. The dollar stayed strong today, but did not build on Monday's
1-month high against the yen.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 15:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4349)

Japan slow to return to US bonds in new fiscal yr

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990406/08.html***Important information...Japan's waning interest in U.S. Treasuries.***

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 15:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4350)

BBC--Kazakhstan's currency tumbles

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the%5Feconomy/newsid%5F312000/312759.stmBest coverage found on this since Sunday.

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 15:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4351)

The Growing of a Tulip in South Sea Soil...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_145000/145986.stmWhat does Jack do when he comes back down the beanstalk?
...chop...chop...

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 16:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4352)

BBC: What is hedging anyway?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_179000/179918.stmHedging 101...take yourself to school with this beginner's guide to derivatives.

TownCrier

(04/06/1999; 16:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4353)

U.S. claims victory in banana dispute with EU

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990406/7o.html100 percent tariffs to be imposed by the U.S. are now in the works for various European Union imports. $$$...

Aristotle

(04/06/1999; 16:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4354)

Something is not right, here.

A quote from the daily news in regard to the Serbian announcement of a unilateral ceasefire in Kosovo--"NATO responded with caution to the ceasefire announcement. The U.S. and Britain quickly rejected a ceasefire and vowed to intensify NATO bombing until Belgrade meets demands."

U.S. and Britain...I thought I knew you. As Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid asked at the end of it all--"Who ARE these guys?" Sheeeeeesh!

Gold is the only bright spot of the day. Get you some. ---Aristotle

USAGOLD

(04/06/1999; 16:50:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4355)

The Fifth Horseman Revealed

http://www.usagold.com/FifthHorseman.htmlI must tell you first of all that the choice for the Fifth Horseman was made long before the contest began and it was made by clients calling and asking questions about it for the past several weeks.

Seconcly, I must say something about this Fifth Horseman that has been the subject of such deep and reasoned discourse at the site over the past several days:

Please note that I call the Horseman "Rising Oil". Not OPEC. Not the oil producers. Not the oil conglomerates. Not the oil industry. Just the commodity itself and the fact that its price has escalated rapidly. There is a reason for this. The oil producers worldwide, particularly what we call the OPEC cartel, have been largely responsible, knowingly or not (and deliberately or not) for the strong growth in the industrial economies for over a decade now. The road to prosperity had been paved with cheap oil. In my view, that is all about to end and for a very good reason: The cheap oil has also driven these producing economies -- particularly Saudi Arabia -- to the wall. Just before this last round of producer talks began, several stories appeared in Western financial pages, that many of the oil producing countries were near bankruptcy, devaluation, and social failure -- fertile ground for the likes of Saddam Hussein. They acted because they had to act. They acted to save their own economies.

I do not consider what I think is about to happen to be the fault of the oil producers. They have absorbed our inflation rate and money printing for a long time. At the same time, there is little doubt they will be demonized both in the press and by the American public once gasoline prices start up and the price of just about everything else goes up with it.

Those who chose price inflation as the Fifth Horseman were close. I thought some of the posts on War were so strong that I thought about adding a sixth Horseman.

It was a great contest. And this one -- more than any other -- represented to me the type of thing that I hoped would happen when I inaugurated this FORUM. A high level of intelligent discussion among reasonable men and women with the ultimate goal being the advancement of our collective knowledge and wisdom. Those who say that the American public can only stand information in sound bites and childishly explained at that, don't know what they're talking about.

Please go to the url above to see some interesting graphs which contributed to choosing "Rising Oil" as the Fifth Horseman. There is more to this angry visage than meets the eye. The article is meant to be an introduction. I am sure those seated at this Table Round can add substantially to this humble beginning.

Onward, my fellow knights and ladies.

The winners will be announced later in the week. There is much still to ponder before choosing the winners.

YGM

(04/06/1999; 16:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4356)

@ Aristotle--Maybe This Is What's Wrong!

http://www.serbia-info.com/news/1999-04/04/10496.htmlUncomfirmed, but in Serbian News and Greece--
19 U.S. soldiers bodies being secretly returned.
* If this is true there will be hell to pay in many directions.

SteveH

(04/06/1999; 18:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4357)

Midas

June gold $281.90...

This from Bill Murphy:

A Mini Midas-

There has been very little fundamental news to speak
of in the precious metals arena as the Easter holiday
is really a 5 day getaway for market participants.
Greg Pickup's piece, Pop Goes the Weasel, subtly
reveals why the gold market could take off, just when
almost absolutely no one is looking, or prepared, for
that to happen. It may not be tomorrow, but it is
building. I will talk about this in the next Midas.

However, there really is one very positive item to report
to you and that is that the open interest on Comex as of
yesterday rose 8,720 contracts to a new recent high of
198,374 contracts. We know for a fact that it was the funds
( Great Lakes )that sold yesterday and the bullion banks
( JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank )were buyers.
What is startling is that the this open interest increase
occurred yesterday on a trading volume of only about
18,000 contracts. The gold market was driven down $2
but recovered most of that today.

In the last two Midas du Metropole commentaries, we
suggested that a gold rally to $288-$290 was in the cards.
Since we first made that suggestion, the open interest has
soared 23,000 contracts as the specs keep piling in, yet
the gold price is 50 cents higher. The CFTC Commitment of
Trader Report on Friday will no doubt reveal an incredibly
net short large spec position and also show that the
commercials are very, very long.

Some of the buyers the past 10 days are some of those that
we believe have colluded to keep the price of gold down for
many months. On the last gold price run up, this same crew
was long too ( though not quite this long ) and they ran
in the shorts, but quickly reversed course in concerted
fashion. After running in the specs, they smothered the
market driving the price of gold down again. That induced
the specs to get out of new longs and pile in on the
short side. One of the big ying yangs of all time.

It would appear that a strong rally is in the cards, but
as we said in the last Midas, are they just setting up
the specs again, or has the game changed? Have they
orchestrated the gold market enough and had their pounds
( tonnes ) of flesh? If that is the case then the
price of gold should rally $50 to $330. We should see
that in the price action of the market. Or, are they
just playing with the market one again and setting up
the spec trading crowd not in on "the fix".

If we are right that the gold borrowing crowd and
gold speculative crowd is short 3,000 tonnes of gold
in toto, someone, sometime is going to go after that
unsustainable, long term position. Was all this
talk by government officials bearish pep talk offered
to the media to encourage the specs to sell so that
the bullion banks could finally reduce their exposure?
Did they know what was coming with Kosovo? Don't know.

All we can do is monitor the market very closely and look
for clues that might give us the answers.

Meanwhile, silver was trashed yesterday and recovered a bit
today. The trade was a very big buyer today and while it
looks a bit ugly, we are as bullish as ever on this market.
When silver is ready to move, it will move up like a
jack rabbit scurries across a prairie.

Le Metropole Cafe

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron

beesting

(04/06/1999; 19:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4358)

To YGM

You have my permission to pass on my posts # 4343 and 4344 to interested parties,but please give the USAGOLD URL,and remember those posts were speculation on my part based on two news releases.Does the context of the posts make sence to you? Enjoy Gold............beesting

beesting

(04/06/1999; 19:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4359)

When Gold goes up I'm going to hire a proofreader!

SENSE!!!

The Stranger

(04/06/1999; 19:47:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4360)

Oil Prices

"The cheap oil has also driven these producing economies --
particularly Saudi Arabia -- to the wall." Michael, am I reading you wrong, or are you saying you no longer buy the gold for oil theory?

SteveH

(04/06/1999; 20:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4361)

Ode d'Another

from you know where. Do we see parallels here?

Date: Tue Apr 06 1999 18:00
Silverbaron (The Sting - an oldie but a goodie) ID#290456:
Copyright � 1999 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Repost of an artice from Dennis Birch, 1997-1998

THE STING
Mr. Johnston's Letter to his Sons!
( The Sting & Ponzi Scheme! )
Mr. Johnston is a retired financial analyst in his
eighties who has learned and lived through times
most of us only read about. A letter he had
written to his sons was provided to me by one of
my Canadian business associates. I was so
intrigued with the letter I contacted Mr. Johnston
and had a lengthy phone conversation with him on
this subject. Someone is always number one
( currently the US ) and there are many who
"wannabe" number one ( the BIS ) as outlined in his
letter. It has a tinge of "conspiracy" to the
rationale but regardless, the underlying facts and
scenario are quite accurate in my opinion. Look
back at my previous comments on "conspiracy"; it
makes no difference whether there is actually a
"conspiracy" or not as the facts speak for
themselves.
* * * * * * * *
Houston, Texas
July 15, 1997
My Dear Sons:
This is about "The Sting". This is about the sting
that will smash the Great Bull Market. This is
about the sting that will derail the gravy train.
The sting is already in place and its trigger has
already been pulled. The sting merely has to
unfold. The public suspects nothing.
A sting is a confidence game in which the victim
is deliberately set up to believe that he cannot
lose, that he has a bird's nest on the ground.
Then at the last moment the trap is sprung, and
his dreams of riches turn to rags. This sting was
made in Japan, with a strong assist from
Switzerland.
To get a better idea of the Swiss Connection, we
have to look at the Bank for International
Settlements ( BIS ) in Basel. he BIS is the Central
Bank's central bank. It was formed in 1930 to
handle the collection of German war debt following
World War I. Its members are the central banks of
the industrial world, such as the Bank of England,
the German Bundesbank, the Federal Reserve Bank,
the Bank of Japan, and so on. It is almost
certainly the most powerful financial institution
in the world. Never once in its long history has
it ever had to ask for help from any government.
A definite coolness exists between the BIS and the
United States. This goes back to the Bretton Woods
Conference in 1944, held to set up the machinery
for resuming world business after World War II.
Even though this conference established the
gold-backed U.S. dollar as the only reserve
currency, the U.S. did everything it could to
torpedo the BIS and give sole power to the
American sponsored International Monetary Fund.
The war was not over in 1944, but the combatants
still got together and defeated this U.S. grab. In
the final showdown, the Europeans and Japan never
completely trusted the U.S.
As the years went by, the BIS suspicions were
justified. The U.S. began to abuse its reserve
currency role by simply printing dollars. American
companies began to buy control of businesses all
over the world. In 1971, President Nixon took the
dollar off the gold standard, and introduced the
novel idea of floating currencies. Meanwhile, the
U.S. national debt began to increase each year,
until it now stands at about $5.5 Trillion, an
astronomic amount that can ever, ever be repaid.
It was clear that the U.S. was out of control.
Along about 1972, I began to spend a great deal of
time and effort in studying the BIS and its
agenda. The first thing I found was that although
the U.S. had turned its back on gold, the BIS were
aggressively buying it. By 1990, the BIS were by
far the largest holder of gold, with more than one
billion ounces. This amounts to an outright corner
on gold.
The next thing I learned is that the BIS are
extremely closemouthed. It keeps a low profile.
Its favorite M/O is the sneak attack. They have
their own word for this � "coup". Their ideal coup
is one where the victim is taken by surprise, and
does not even know what hit him. The BIS tries to
leave no fingerprints. Thus their coups often
become perfect crimes.
The third thing I learned was that the BIS had two
ironclad objectives. Both were so bold that they
would take your breath away:
1 ) To destroy the Soviet Union, as a threat to
world peace.
2 ) To destroy the dollar as the worlds reserve
currency.
We all know that the Soviet Union collapsed in
1989. This was done by the BIS without firing a
shot. They simply loaned large sums of money to
the Soviets, and then called the loans. Just a
routine castration! A simple foreclosure. This is
how they got the Russian gold.
The second goal, of bringing down the dollar as a
reserve currency, has not yet been reached, but I
believe it soon will be. This brings us to the
present sting operation.
If you are going to derail the dollar and the
Great Bull Market, you better bring a pretty big
checkbook. The new money coming into the mutual
funds is running about $20 billion a month. Unless
you can top that kind of buying pressure, you
don't have a chance. How in the world do you shoot
down an animal that big and that powerful? In my
opinion, the BIS and its Japanese partners have
come up with an ingenious answer. It is big enough
to work. It goes like this:
The sting began two years ago, in August 1995,
when a rash of bad loans and insider scandals
brought the Japanese banks to their knees. The BIS
became alarmed, and advised the Japanese to lower
their loan rates to �%. This created an enormous
gap between the low Japanese rate and the 6-�%
U.S. rate. Into this gap poured speculators from
Japan and everywhere else. The speculators would
borrow yen in huge amounts. They would then sell
the yen, and put the proceeds into U.S. paper,
thus making an enormous, guaranteed return. This
came to be known as the "Yen � Carry Trade". This
yen � carry trade has been going on for over two
years, in virtually unlimited volume. It created a
huge demand for U.S. bonds, which in turn
sustained a huge and unprecedented bull market in
stocks.
In a similar fashion, the Japanese and others
found that they could do the same thing with gold
and this came to be known as the "Gold � Carry
Trade". The speculators could borrow gold at about
1%, sell the gold, and then invest the proceeds in
U.S. paper, with a huge guaranteed return. How
delightful! How delicious! But how lethal!
I say lethal because this yen � carry, gold �
carry Ponzi scheme has created a "potential short
squeeze of colossal magnitude". ( Michael Belkin,
"Strategic Investments", May 14, 1997 ) Sooner or
later, these fantastic leveraged schemes must be
unwound. The gold and the yen which were borrowed
and sold short will have to be bought back; and
the bonds that were bought with borrowed money
will have to be sold. The totals involved are
probably well over a trillion dollars, or far
beyond the mutual funds yearly take. Anything
could trigger the debacle. As long as gold keeps
going down or the yen keeps going down, no
problem. As long as bonds keep going up, no
problem. But once gold starts to rise, or the yen
starts to rise; or once bonds start to fall, these
huge positions would be unwound. There would be a
run for the exits, and the panic would feed on
itself. Margin calls would ruin the leveraged
speculator in short order. There would be no way
to stop the carnage. All it will take is a coup to
start the waterfall.
We had the coup on June 24, 1997, though it was
only vaguely understood at that time. The Japanese
Prime Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto, told a luncheon
meeting at Columbia University, "I hope the U.S.
will engage in efforts and in cooperation maintain
exchange stability so we will not succumb to the
temptation to sell off Treasury bills and switch
our funds to gold".
In a matter of minutes, the NYSE collapsed, and
the Dow-Jones closed down 192 points in a
mini-panic. The victim's saw the trap for the
first time! Then the media and Wall Street fell
all over each other trying to control the damage,
saying Hashimoto was misquoted, etc., etc. The
various exchanges staged a desperate anti-gold
raid, and soon had gold down to 12-year lows. The
Street breathed a sigh of relief and returned to
its summertime siesta.
But the damage was done. Now look at the mess that
confronts the big-time gamblers. We now have gold
at new lows and the bonds at new highs. Surely,
this is a speculator's dream come true � well,
isn't it? No, this is The Sting. The yen � carry
and the gold � carry is still in place, and they
still have to be unwound. The temptation Hashimoto
mentioned now becomes unbearable. The Japanese
cannot resist the chance to sell the bonds near
their highs, or the chance to buy gold near its
low. Do you imagine that the bonds will stay high
or that gold will stay low? No way! The unwinding
begins to feed on itself, and the 5000 mutual
funds and all their friends will be unable to do a
single thing about it. That's what you mean by The
Sting.
I have no idea whether Mr. Hashimoto was acting on
his own, or whether his words were part of a
larger plan. I know one thing, though. This guy is
no innocent babe in the woods. Before he became
the Prime Minister, he was Japan's Finance
Minister. He knew the ropes. He knew the big
wheels at BIS. He knew all about yen � carry and
gold � carry. He was telling his people that the
game was over. Remember that these are the
friendly little folks who gave us Pearl Harbor and
the kamikaze! For just a fleeting second there,
when Hashimoto spoke, the thought flashed across
my mind that the Japs had just won World War II.
Another thought � the Japs could acquire gold in a
different way. They could sell our bonds and buy
the EMU, the new European currency that the BIS
are sponsoring to replace the dollar. The EMU is
expected to be a package combination of gold and
paper.
So there you have the anatomy of the greatest
sting in history. It is real. It is in place. It
cannot be stopped. It can only feed on itself and
get more and more desperate as the shorts are
squeezed to death. And best of all for the BIS,
the fingerprints on it are not Swiss � they are
Japanese. Call this the "Karate Chop".
Think about this, and call me with your reactions.
There is more to this story. Stay tuned.
Much love, Dad"
* * * * * * **
Mr. Johnston's letter was written last July. I
don't want to be redundant but this is the reason
I have been telling you in the past that we are in
the transition from intangible financial assets to
tangible real assets.

Dennis Birch's RESOURCE STOCK DIGEST
2658 Del Mar Heights Road, Suite 425, Del Mar, CA
92014
http://www.gigweb.com

SteveH

(04/06/1999; 20:36:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4362)

Good stuff here, indeedy!

http://members.home.net/rjgold/comments.htm This guy is a PM dealer (PM=Precious Metals).

USAGOLD

(04/06/1999; 20:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4363)

Stranger........

Some interesting stats for you with respect to dollar production:

1. Money supply growth is the highest we have seen in 16 years. Since late 1997 MZM has grown consistently at a doublt digit rate. The growth rate now = 12% while GDP has grown at roughly 4%. In other words, we are inflating and in a big way. I heard today that it was reported that we had a huge increase in Money Supply last week (though I don't have the exact numbers at my finger tips).

2. The foreign holding of U.S. dollars has skyrocketed in recent years -- now at well over $250 billion.

3. Meanwhile net foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries has collapsed and the the trend line on foreign holdings as a % of total privately held U.S. debt has broken to the downside --significantly. This reflects Japan and the Gulf States retreating from the dollar market.

4. In other words, much of the money supply should be seen as hot money coming from Fed monetization of Treasury debt unable to find an external market and has nowhere to go now but into higher prices on goods, like oil, like gold. If I see this, others more astute than I see it as well.

Under the circumstances, what better way to retaliate against an organized attack on your currency than by organizing a cartel which is essentially an attack on the dollar?

Stranger, let's look at the other side of the same coin.
Do you think that the resurrection of the cartel and the higher price might not be proof of Another's view? How much of this has to do with a move to the euro? Could the Gulf States have gone as far as they could in staying with the dollar, and decided now was the time to abandon that policy?

I leave this as a discussion point with the FORUM.

Hopefully, Another will address the matter upon his return. We haven't really heard from him in depth since all of this happened -- since the oil price skyrocketed. Could it be that the oil for gold has broken down? Don't forget there was a formula in which the dollar and gold played a role. Perhaps the gold flow is no longer what it was.

I don't know. I'm just speculating and don't want to speak for Another who is fully capable of speaking for himself.

Aristotle

(04/06/1999; 22:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4364)

Tomcat--I'll take a stab at your questions

Tomcat (4/5/99; 19:53:55MDT - Msg ID:4324)
"Propping up weakened currencies and the POG
Occassionally you hear about a country selling gold to to prop up their currency. Today there was an article about this happening in Kazatstan. Thanks to TownCrier for his post.

"Does anyone know if this is a common event? If many countries become weaker economically, will there be more selling of gold to prop up their currencies? The logic seems to say, that weakened currencies create a drop in the POG. Could someone critique this view or expand on it?"

On your first point, a careful reading of that Sunday article reveals that Kazakstan has now stopped selling Gold (and other foreign exchange reserves) in an attempt to prop the currency, having decided that it was a losing proposition. They have decided to increase their gold and forex reserves, instead. So, we've got to salute them for this step in the right direction.

"Selling" forex reserves is a very common event, notably if a nation's currency is trading an undesirably low exchange rates. The nation will sell some of its forex "savings" (foreign exchange reserves = other nations' currencies + gold) to purchase its own currency on the foreign exchange markets. This direct participation in the Supply and Demand world of currencies has the expected impact on the currencies' "prices" (exchange rates.) Many of the smarter nations [smarter--in my opinion] hold onto their gold as the reserve of last resort.

Here's an example. If Japan feels its yen is valued too low, it might use some dollars to buy yen. This results in the exchange rate strengthening of the yen vs the dollar, and depending on the scale of the forex trading, the yen may as a result rise relative to all currencies, and the dollar may fall relative to all. The U.S. might counter this if necessary by buying up all these dollars. If they use yen, there is no net change. If they use swiss francs, then the dollar strengthens while the S.franc weakens. And so on around the world. Pretty dumb, huh? At the turn of the century most of the nations were on a gold standard (hence all of those great little pre-1933 gold coins of the world shown on MK's Product page), so this forex stuff was a non-issue. Countries would trade all matter of imports and exports priced in gold, and any balance of trade was then settled in gold. All they needed was a scale.

In regard to your final questions, when a country's currency goes south, the most tragic loser is the common man, because his savings is suddenly diminished. He can avoid this by the no-brainer act of choosing Gold as his form of savings. Will more countries be selling Gold to prop up their currency? Seems to me the distress selling should be at an end. Countries, once foolish, are now getting wise. Kazakstan for example. If we were to witness the asian contagion all over again, I doubt that we would see any significant amount of Gold mobilized across country borders. Some nations are content to let the currency weaken because it helps their businesses that are net exporters. The factory workers do not get raises, so the cost of production is constant (in local currency), and upon exporting they make a killing on the new exchange rates. If some propping is necessary, I would think the central banks would be loathe to piss away their gold when fiat reserves are available for that purpose that are, after all, not fundamentally different than their own failing currency.

I apologize for just cranking this out. Someone else could give it much more thorough treatment, but with the spare moment I have, I thought any answer was better than no answer to your question. Sorry for the delay. ---Aristotle

The Stranger

(04/06/1999; 22:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4365)

M.K.

Michael, believe me I couldn't possibly agree with your first point about money supply growth and inflation more. Your remarks echo precisely what has been my main thesis in this forum going back to my very first post (#1817/1-14-99/p). In fact this issue was my entry for Fifth Horseman.

Despite the above, I must confess that I was a little bit jarred by the fourth quarter productivity numbers, which grew by 4% over 1997. 4% growth in productivity and 4% growth in GDP and 12% growth in MZM, one is only left with room for 4% inflation, as I figure it...not a level likely to compel millions to turn to gold. My guess is, however, that productivity numbers are so good, in part, because employers are short-handed in this economy and are pressing workers to carry a heavier workload. If this is true, those same workers are going to start asking for wage increases soon, if they haven't already done so.

As to the oil price increase being proof of Another's view, my answer is yes, that is if you think so. You are MUCH more familiar with Another's view than I am. When I asked if you were having a change of heart, I was referring specifically to what I understand to be his primary theory. I believe he has proposed that oil exporting nations, and specifically Saudi Arabia, have been using the GUISE of lower oil prices to enrich themselves with gold. If this has, in fact, been his position, it would appear to be contradicted by your statement that "cheap oil has driven these producers...to the wall."

I have never had the opportunity to question Another about how these deeply-indebted oil producer's had the clout to pull off so grandiose a scheme. I did ask FOA during his recent visit. I did not get an answer.

About conversion to the Euro: As far as I can see, Opec has not even changed PRICES, much less currencies. What they have changed is production levels. The market has done the rest. As to currencies, I can't figure out what difference choice of currency makes, providing it is freely convertible. You could probably enlighten me on this.

Meantime Michael, three cheers for YOUR choice of oil price increases as the Fifth Horseman. As always, your thoughts, well-considered and well-expressed, light the way for the rest of us.

Tomcat

(04/06/1999; 23:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4366)

Aristotle

Thank you sir for more than an expected response. I agree that the time of distress selling might be near or at it's end.

What will occur in the first 6 t0 8 months of the year 2000 when many y2k unprepared countries take it in the shorts? It would seem that after their forex moves to bolster their currency they would then move to selling gold. The CBs would also attempt to get back any gold that they had loaned out. After the dust settles, it looks like the nations that withstood the y2k storm could wind up with more gold and the y2k lightweights could wind up with less.

In addition to changing the POG, y2k could also change the distrubution of ownership of gold. If Japan, Britain, and the Euro countries really weakened due to y2k, it could precipite the Sting operation on the dollar mentioned in Steve H's post.

Peter Asher

(04/06/1999; 23:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4367)

Michael

I've gone through your write-up on rising oil several times, and everything seems to parallel the scenario I depicted in the Allegory, up to the point where the plug gets pulled on the stock market. Rising oil costs certainly will trigger price inflation, but I keep trying to envision what happens when consumer spending seizes up.

1) Oil drives up the price of everything.
2) The same rate of dollar-spending patronizes fewer products, thereby creating more competition, which lowers prices in less favored goods. Unless, while the wheels are still turning, more funds go directly into spending instead of investment. Still, the oil-induced increases in the cost of basics would put a damper on discretionary purchases.
3) The Fed is faced with a conundrum. Price inflation clamors for a rise in interest rates while lower corporate earnings and a stalled or falling stock market makes a case for lowering.

So what happens at that point?

In the 70's inflationary recession, people had buying and borrowing power. The momentum of that time was expressed by the slogan, "Buy appreciating assets with borrowed money and pay it back with cheaper dollars." The stock market was not a bubble at all then. What is different now is that most of America's savings are an illusion that only has substance as long as new personal savings can feed the old. I guess we could say it's not a Goldilocks market; it's an Aladdin's Lamp phenomenon.

Therefore, I keep coming back to: Rising Oil begets inflation, begets crash, begets deflation. There won't be any money to patronize the higher prices, and then with a little help from our friend Y2K, it all falls down.

Please regard this post as one big question: Is this scene plausible???

SteveH

(04/07/1999; 04:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4368)

June gold now...

...still...$282.10.

Where is everybody?

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 07:25:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4369)

I can't speak for 'everybody,' Steve, but I'm right here.

Can you confirm this? My recollection is that gold is not trading this week on the Chinese/Hong Kong market due to a holiday of some sort. Yes, no, or a combination of the two?

SteveH

(04/07/1999; 07:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4370)

Aristotle

It is trading in Nuevo York and is at $282.20 but did have high of $282.60 (June gold of course). Re: Hong Kong, can't say except trades have registered throughout the night since 4:30pm EST yesterday leading me to believe that more than just London and Australia were open. HTH (hope that helps).

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 08:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4371)

Today's Market Report: Short Covering, Interesting Activity at the COMEX Warehouse

MARKET UPDATE (4/7/99): Gold moved sideways in early trading taking a cautious
stance after yesterday's strong advance off of contract lows. Traders were attributing
Tuesday's strong market to short covering. One trader told Bridge News that "gold
shouldn't have seen such a selloff" given the continued strong physical demand. Reuters
reports this morning that London dealers are concerned that shorts might be back at some
point for more covering of the same degree that sent gold up $7 in early March. "As
COMEX open interest figures continue to climb on gold," said one London dealer, the
possibility of a short covering rally increases.

Another clue that could unlock the mysteries in the currrent gold market is the fact that some
30,000 ounces of gold were put into the COMEX warehouse on Monday, only to be
removed yesterday. This is the same type of activity that occurred during gold's last rally
that eventually caused an inverted market. An inversion occurs when the most current
month registers a price above any future month. It usually signals that some market
participants are taking delivery on their contracts. We have said before here that these
deliveries are associated, in our opinion, with the strong demand for gold coins on the part
of investors preparing for Y2K, hedging an over-valued stockmarket, as well as lingering
concerns about emerging nation economic problems that might strain international lending
institutions.

IN BRIEF......MZM, or monetary base, is growing at a double digit rate -- 12%....
Simultaneously, net foreign purchases of Treasuries has plummetted by nearly 80% since
the 1997 highs.............The two phenomena together suggest that the Fed could be
monetizing the debt and forcing hot money into the economy -- very inflationary...........
The Richebacher Letter (3/99)....."Asset bubbles and resulting bubble economies always
have one and the same root cause: credit growth vastly in exess of economic activity, as
measured by the growth in in nominal gross national product.".............Gross National
Product is growing at roughly a 4% clip. Total bank credit is now growing at a 28% clip
and total credit market debt is running in the $260 billion range............For those who
think that the British royal family is at the heart of a vast conspiracy to control the political
and economic direction of the English speaking countries consider this: Tony Blair,
Britain's prime minister, "ordered" Prince Charles to shut down the royal web site for his
vigorous denunciations of genetically modified crops. "The prince refused point blank, "
said Alexander Cockburn in an editorial that appeared recently in the Rocky Mountain
News................Steve Hanke, the economist from Johns Hopkins who has advised
many of the emerging nations on how to protect their currencies from HFFI (Hedge Fund
Forex Invasion), says that "In five years, most of the economic activity in Latin America
will be dollarized."........And what happens when one of those country's economies tanks:
Does Alan Greenspan get to bail them out at U.S. taxpayer expense?.......The Richebacher
Letter: "It was a shocking failure by the international financial community to recognize the
Asian bubble. We have just the same as regards the U.S. economy."........If you want to
know why the Republican Party backed off of going after the Clinton administration on
Chinagate, go to this morning's Washington Times for some answers......Apparently the
transfer of military technology has been going on since 1988 during George Bush's
watch.............. The dollar is up this morning against most currencies. Stocks are up.
Crude down slightly................. That's it for today. Happy trails until tomorrow, my
fellow goldmeisters. MK

PLEASE REMEMBER: IT IS YOUR PURCHASE OF GOLD FROM CENTENNIAL
PRECIOUS METALS/USAGOLD THAT NOURISHES THESE PAGES.

YGM

(04/07/1999; 09:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4372)

Steve H

Your posting of THE LETTER certainly gives one food for
thought! It may be pertinent to note that the B.I.S. cut off
all loans to U.S. Based and all Off-Shore Hedge Funds
about 4 months ago. Definately falls in line w/ theme of
the letter. BTW- I printed it for prosterity sake (the letter)
It has much credibility in my mind.---YGM

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 09:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4373)

Hear ye! hear ye! Knights and Ladies...

The marksmen have let fly their arrows. Which among them will strike nearest this Friday's close of the June gold contract? Let us watch as these arrows fly their steady course while the target moves about! His Majesty, the King, shall name and award the victor on Friday when the target has been revealed to all.

$274.10 HLime (4/3/99; 23:34)
$274.70 High Density (4/1/99; 23:27)
$276.70 Peter Asher (4/4/99; 23:51)
$278.75 Trico (4/4/99; 23:42)
$279.00 The Stranger (4/3/99; 7:35)
$281.05 Quixote (4/5/99; 14:44)
$281.90 HopeingII (4/1/99; 13:44)
$282.50 onlychild (4/3/99; 1:37)
$283.30 Goldfly (4/3/99; 23:13)
$283.65 nugget101 (4/5/99; 14:40)
$283.90 canamami (4/5/99; 15:50)
$284.15 Silver Tongue (4/5/99; 17:55 **deadline?*)
$285.10 JA (4/4/99; 22:17)
$285.60 backlash (4/3/99; 22:21)
$286.00 Arizona Hiker (4/2/99; 11:56)
$286.50 NORTH OF 49 (4/2/99; 21:26)
$286.75 pa kua (4/3/99; 22:43)
$287.50 Gandalf the White (3/31/99; 21:34)
$288.40 Diewarzu (4/1/99; 10:09)
$288.80 Alchemist (4/2/99; 10:15)
$288.80 el St.One (4/5/99; 0:40)
$289.50 Richard, Oregon (4/1/99; 22:12)
$289.50 T. Remital (4/5/99; 6:26)
$290.25 YGM (4/3/99; 3:38)
$291.25 nugget101 (4/1/99; 18:43)
$292.10 beesting (4/3/99; 22:11)
$294.50 SteveH (4/1/99; 0:17)
$299.95 jim nickles (4/5/99; 17:36 **deadline?*)
$301.00 Farfel (4/5/99; 3:02)

IN ADDITION...the Council of Elders is deliberating the many warnings and scouting reports we've received in regard to the identity of the Fifth Horseman. We expect the King to reward the most able sages or scouts on the morrow. We are told the Treasury is active with the preparations. "Bring up the precious metals!"

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 10:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4374)

YGM, Steve H, and Dad

Let's assume the BIS and Japan are setting the US banks up for "The Sting". It would be hard to believe that the Fed, JP Morgan, et al are just going to sit back and accept this with a happy face "Golly gee guys, you sure snookered us this time. But we'll get you next time".

Gold, dollars, and investments are guarded by counter actions, guns, force and if need be, death. If someone tries to hold you up, you have the option to blow him away. This option of force is rarely taken. But the fact that the potential to destroy is present will always be a factor with which Stingers must contend. This is one of the main tenets of "Blood in the Streets" by Davidson and Ross-Mogg.

If a run started on treasury notes, and it could not be easily countered or stopped, the Fed would, I am sure, alter or stop trading long enough to make a strong counter move; like emposing trade barriers or the threat of an oil embargo, etc.

Japan, whether it likes it or not, is still dependent on and subserviant to the potential of the USA's economic and brute force.

I post this in the hope that we do not take "Dad's Letter" seriously without first searching for evidence and debating the issue. If Dad is right, we are headed for a lot more that a rise in the price of gold.

Example: Assuming there is a sting in place, one counter that could be made would for the US to drive the yen down with Y2k by being uncooperative with y2k testing and implementation of international banking lines.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 10:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4375)

"Howdy, Stranger"

The Stranger, in your (4/6/99; 22:51:37MDT - Msg ID:4365) post to M.K., you said plenty of fine things, but one thing in particular that I'd like to comment on:

"About conversion to the Euro: As far as I can see, Opec has not even changed PRICES, much less currencies. What they have changed is production levels. The market has done the rest. As to currencies, I can't figure out what difference choice of currency makes, providing it is freely convertible. You could probably enlighten me on this."

It got my attention simply because I had just had a related post to Tomcat. See my (4/6/99; 22:16:52MDT - Msg ID:4364). Sure, OPEC could continue to price petroleum in dollar terms. But if they want euros (or gold) at the end of the day, doing the forex swaps with this freely convertible dollar would have the same net impact as charging in euros or Gold in the first place. The Face (appearance) would remain the same as today if their price stayed as dollars, but the Body (effect) would be different. Just as with a nation's Forex interventions, this conversion of currencies would plunge the dollar and raise the target currency's (or commodity's) exchange rate. Like I said to Tomcat, "This direct participation in the Supply and Demand world of currencies has the expected impact on the currencies' "prices" (exchange rates.)"

Hope your day is a Golden one! ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 11:35:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4376)

Fed buys coupons for second time on Wednesday

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990407/tw.htmlBehind the scenes...where money comes from (in case you didn't know.)

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 11:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4377)

Double speak

http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990407/12/tech-y2k-media Actually, its double speak about double speak.I don't know whether to laugh or cry on this one

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 11:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4378)

Tomcat

< like emposing trade
barriers or the threat of an oil embargo, etc.>

Wasn't that what Pearl Harbor was all about? I hope we're not doomed to repeat history here.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 12:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4379)

The Stranger: An Interpretation of Another and FOA's View

Stranger: "As to the oil price increase being proof of Another's view, my answer is yes, that is if you think so. You are MUCH more familiar with Another's view than I am. When I asked if you were having a change of heart, I was referring specifically to what I understand to be his primary theory. I believe he has proposed that oil exporting nations, and specifically Saudi Arabia, have been using the GUISE of lower oil prices to enrich themselves with gold. If this has, in fact, been his position, it would appear to be contradicted by your statement that "cheap oil has driven these producers...to the wall."
-------
MK: Stranger, I am a traveler and interpreter of events just like you. The "deal" as Another outlined, and if my understanding is correct, involves a certain ratio of dollars per barrel of oil with gold as a kicker to balance the scales so to speak. The kicker, in Another's analysis, was compensation for losses the oil producers might take by holding dollars for future use.

As I think you are already aware, currency has two primary functions: One as a means of exchange and the other as a store of value. It is the store of value function -- or better put, the perceived future value of stored currency -- that is quite often forgotten when analyzing people's (and nations') intentions and actions. If a holder of a currency believes that its future purchasing power is questionable, that holder might consider exchanging it now for something with a better chance of future value. It must be very difficult to be a holder of dollars these days when you know the Fed is printing money like there is no tomorrow. You turn to the stock market and there is no value there. You turn to the Treasuries' market and you see nothing but the value of your asset going up in inflationary smoke.

Now, what if simultaneously, you perceive that the future value of the dollar is questionable but you are still being offered the same weight of gold for the same amount of oil? The adjustment -- the balance -- would then have to be achieved by raising the dollar price. Now you are receiving the same amount of gold and more dollars for the same amount of oil. I don't think the ratios involved were ever etched in stone as far as Another was concerned. They only could be assuming an endless supply of gold at current prices and as far as I know the philosopher's stone is still a myth. YGM's post stating that the BIS had cut off large gold flows four months ago, true or not, speaks to this same issue and may be at work here as well.

Now. On to the question of why Saudi Arabia (for example) would have economic problems despite the "oil for gold" deal. I think the entire international economic structure was jolted by the Asian contagion beyond what even we realize, who spend so much time trying to get our arms around it. Exports even at the lower prices still caused a dwindling of profits flowing back to the oil producers. It matters not from a business point of view whether or not you are receiving gold or dollars in payment for your oil. All that matters is the level of sales and profits. The currency question as discussed above is another question entirely. If you are not making money, you aren't making money. Period.

Saudi Arabia and others apparently haven't been making any money. Demand is down. What recourse do they have? You can pump all the oil you have in reserve, but if there is no one there to buy it, you can't make a profit. They took what I believe is their only course of action to keep the fields open -- cartellize and push up prices so that you are getting more money per barrel of oil.

So you see they are two different problems. This latter I would classify as a business problem, i.e. How do I up my profits? The other a financial problem, i.e., How do I keep the money I make?
--------------

Stranger: "I have never had the opportunity to question Another about how these deeply-indebted oil producer's had the clout to pull off so grandiose a scheme. I did ask FOA during his recent visit. I did not get an answer. About conversion to the Euro: As far as I can see, Opec has not even changed PRICES, much less currencies. What they have changed is production levels. The market has done the rest. As to currencies, I can't figure out what difference choice of currency makes, providing it is freely convertible. You could probably enlighten me on this."

MK: As I said in the first part of this post, it matter s a great deal when you intend to store that currency for future use. All oil today is priced in dollars, but as Another and Friend of Another have said, some day soon it will be priced in euros as well, if it hasn't already. (I'm not if euro's are being used in oil payments.) What this means is that when the oil producer takes payment, he no longer has to worry about exchange value if he takes a currency the future of which he has some confidence in. As for how these deeply indebted countries had the clout to pull this off, I would attribute to simple need of both parties: The world needs oil and the producers need a form of reliable payment. Necessity is the Mother of Invention.
-------------

Stranger: "Meantime Michael, three cheers for YOUR choice of oil price increases as the Fifth Horseman. As always, your thoughts, well-considered and well-expressed, light the way for the rest of us. "

MK: Thank you. I don't know if this is the way Another or FOA would answer you. This is my interpretation. Time and again, they have surprised me with the depth of their information, knowledge and analysis as they've shed new light on old understandings.

As for my acceptance of Another's analysis as described In the Footsteps of Giants, although I rate it highly plausible, logical, even compelling to me personally, I have no way of knowing whether or not it has been the operative quid pro quo. If the analysis we have seen on gold leasing, especially the high number of ounces transacted, is true -- and I have every reason to believe it is -- then that gold has gone somewhere. Much of it has gone into private (strong) hands but a great deal has to have gone elsewhere. The question is "Where?"

I would like to beg Another and FOA's indulgence in posting this. As I have said, I do not mean to speak for them and I hope they are not offended by this attempt to answer your question, Stranger.

Another and FOA: I hope my attempt does not unduly restrain you from answering Stranger's question in your own words.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 12:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4380)

Peter and all....

Even though I am trying to take a few days away from the office, I will be here from time to time. As part of my plans, I will attempt to answer your recent post to me this afternoon or tomorrow, Peter.

Clientele: If you have it in mind to place an order this week, please contact Marie Wednesday and Thursday and George Cooper on Friday. I leave you in their able hands.

Questions of a market and/or esoteric nature can be posted here and I will do my best.

All: If there's anything you would like to discuss I will be here off and on for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

I will not be taking phone calls.

Thanks. MK

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 12:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4381)

With respect to my conversation with The Stranger....

By the way, if anyone else would like to jump into this feel free.

PH in LA are you sailing or surfing today?

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 13:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4382)

from Peter's Y2K article (the link)

"The problem with a lack of information is the less you know the more you naturally assume the worst."
That's odd... ...the Stock market sure hasn't had that problem.

yet. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 13:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4383)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals

Firmer But Locked Into Narrow Ranges

New York-April 7-FWN--For the most part, the precious
metals spent a quiet session trading in fairly narrow
ranges, although all managed gains.
June gold futures closed up 50 cents at $282.30, while
May silver futures were up 1.2 cent at $4.960.
. Gold and silver futures traded in narrow ranges--
June gold from $281.60 to $282.60 and May silver from $4.935to $4.985.
"They just seem to be holding at these levels," saidone gold/silver dealer.
"It was very quiet here, with only a buck range in the
gold," echoed another.
Contacts said both metals seem to be consolidating,
waiting for some development to jar them back intomotion.
One trader put support for June gold around $280.30,
with resistance at $282.90. Support for May silver was
pegged at $4.90, with resistance around $5.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 14:37:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4384)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review (and gold news)

. Jun gold settled today up 50c at $282.3 in light volumes. One dealer said
there may be some "predatory" trading going on, with some players trying to
press some short-covering, although so far they have only had very limited
success.
The dealer contended that, technically, there is "a little gap" to be filled
up on the upside, but if that doesn't get filled soon, gold is likely to soon
retrace.
One analyst noted that open interest has gone up sharply in gold, and funds
are extremely short, so if more momentum to the upside is seen it could trigger
some active short-covering.
"But fundamentally there's nothing to get bullish about," the analyst said.
"There are still fears of central bank sales lurking over the market, and the
inflation picture remains subdued."

Moscow--Apr 7--Russia's Doveritelny and Investitsionnyi Bank (DIB) plans to
export at least 15 tonnes of gold and 80 tonnes of silver this year, a
senior bank official said today. The official said the bank received on Mar
24 a license from the Trade Ministry to export gold and silver bars, and
plans to start exporting gold in May. By Sergei Zhavoronkov, Bridge News

Taipei--Apr 7--Gold reserves held by Taiwan's Central Bank of China stood
at 13.57 million ounces at the end of March, the CBC said in a statement.
Bridge News

Seoul--Apr 7--South Korea's Korea Futures Exchange (KOFEX) in Pusan is
scheduled to launch trading of won-denominated gold futures contracts on
Apr 23, a KOFEX spokesman said today. By Dong-Won Suh, Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Jade

(04/07/1999; 15:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4385)

So what does OIL do??

OPEC production at 12/98 was running around 27.4 Million Barrels a Day [MBD] with Saudi representing about 8.1 MBD. Prior to OPEC's success in lifting the price, OIL had dropped to a range of $10-12 a Barrel. Or from a cash flow point of view $270-328 Million US Dollars a day. The new cut in production is estimated to be around 2 MBD which brings output to about 25.4 MBD for the Cartel. Oil today dropped to about $16 a Barrel, still in a very nice trading range. Now lets look at the Cartels cash flow again at $16 Oil and 25.4 MBD�..That's about $406 million a day. Now that's a pretty dramatic increase in cash flow by anyone's measure. So that brings us back to the question, where do you park a "good percent" of this widening river of USD's for safe keeping. Well I imagine they have thought about this hard and long. First, they could leave it in USD's. But, think about the risk. If the dollar tanked 3-7% or more, then a fairly good amount of the increased cash flow would vaporize electronically into thin air. So then maybe equities, but you'd have to be crazy with a market as overvalued as the U.S. or shaky as Europe. So what's next, a basket of currencies or slide into the EURO. But think about the currency markets over the last two years. Pretty scary. You could lose much more than 5-10% over a weekend. So you keep thinking that your trading your "only real asset" for a currency you think may have a possible problem in the near further, and "you cannot afford another set back at this time". There sure are not too many choices out there at this moment. I think its time to make a call to your friends over at the BIS.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 15:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4386)

"Would you?"

Nothing is quite as subdued as a Gold discussion when the DOW is on a bender. What gives?
If I were to tell you that investing in an Index Fund would be as addictive as nicotine-laced cocaine, would you do it? And that--while laughing all the way--you'd surely ride atop that maniacally-powered rocket straight to the moon, but would not ever be able to eject, would you do it? And that you'd be helpless baggage as it plummetted back down to visit the very bowels of the Earth, would you do it?

Ahhhhhhh...Gold. Life is a beach. Swirl your iced cocktail, put your feet up, and enjoy the show. ---Aristotle

Jade

(04/07/1999; 15:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4387)

AOL

While the DOW made its big run in the last hour of trading, AOL, the king of the NET stocks, tanked almost 7%. This may very well be the first crack in the glass floor. Martin Armstrong, who is not one of my favorites, is calling for a major turning point in the markets around April 9. I still do remember his July 20 call last year. He hit the date as dead center as you can get. His site and most recent story are located at www.pei-intl.com

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4388)

Dollar ends US mixed eyeing Kosovo, Dow, ECB rates

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990407/bb7.htmlHeadline says it all...

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4389)

Oil price jump fuels no inflation fears at Fed

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990407/baa.htmlYou should give this one a good once-over...the world needs oil more than it needs talking heads.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 16:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4390)

Jade, ol' pal...

Hearing no objections, I'd say you've just elected yourself as the Castle Bookkeeper and Numbers Cruncher. Keep 'em coming, and thanks for the calc's. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4391)

BBC World: Africa--Rwanda buries genocide victims

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_313000/313522.stmPerspective: Where was NATO during this?

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 16:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4392)

Peter Asher

"Wasn't that what Pearl Harbor was all about? I hope we're not doomed to repeat history here."

Yes, Peter. That was the point I was trying to make. A multi-billion dollar sting operation would be answered with a response of similar magnitude. The letter from Dad implied an very big sting.

To me the essence of the message was that their was going to be a 'coup' to not only dislodge the dollar from its position but this coup would also replace the men who hold the power associated with the dollar. My opinion is that wars are fought over much smaller issues.

Dad's letter made me wonder what we are really on to regarding the manipulation of gold. First I thought it was due to a few greedy BC and dealers.

Then I realized that these short positions are really large and that the value of the dollar was being controlled at all costs. If it collapses then so does the house of cards.

Then GATA.

And now. with Dad's letter, we are talking about a coup to take control of this planets monetary standard and system!

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4393)

Full text of Yugoslav cease-fire offer

http://news2.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/monitoring/newsid%5F313000/313071.stmRead this. When the 'bad guy' offers to lay down his gun, asking nothing on the part of others, where does the 'good guy' find latitude to "reject the offer"??? Aristotle would surely say "Sheeeeesh!"

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4394)

Amazon forest loss estimates double

http://news2.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_313000/313795.stmTrees needed for pulping into billions of stock certificates. With chainsaw in hand, Andre says, "the deforestation business is booming! Thanks, Wall Street!"

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 16:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4395)

Because the EU has favored its former colonies for banana imports, dumbness ensues...

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990407/eu_us_bana_2.html"The WTO on Tuesday authorized the United States to impose $191 million in 100 percent tariffs on European goods -- anything from sweaters to handbags and coffee makers."

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 17:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4396)

Peter...

In my view, one of the reasons for creating the Fed was to abrogate the business cycle. In one era, it fights inflation (you notice though that it does not fight "asset" inflation, justs complains about it). In another, it fights deflation. What we have ended up with now is both occurring at the same time -- what we variously label stagflation, disinflation and in its extreme inflationary depression. So the Fed "fights" both at the same time -- financial schizophrenia. So Alan Greenspan comes to work each morning without a policy -- simply reacting to whatever set of stimuli is being presented -- fighting inflation one day, deflation the next. The problem, of course, is that he makes a mistake and we plummet into the deflationary abyss, or burn in an inflationary fire, or catch our own version of the Asian contagion. Some say it's pretty much up to Alan Greenspan which way this goes. If he wants to, he can raise interest rates a few points and send this stock market reeling. He can leave things the way they are and continue monetizing debt until we are caught in an inexorable price inflation. Others say external forces are going to make the decision for him, i.e. the bond market, the oil cartel, etc. Hence we have the 1970s all over again only worse.

To me the oil price hike is a watershed event because it is going to force quite a few hands around the world and possibly even the hand of the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve.

I know I haven't answered your question but simply raised more dust, but, Peter, I don't think there is an honest answer to your quesiton. What I just posed could very well be where we are at and all we can do is sit back and watch. I liked Aristotle description of a course of action in his earlier post -- that beach and a tall cold one sounds fairly attractive (though I prefer mountains to beaches).

If an individual owns gold, he/she cares not what the Fed chairman elects to do except from an academic point of view.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 17:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4397)

Sheeeeesh!

Townie, you are right in that 4393 post. Imagine jogging with your friends in the park, and you say to your buddies,"I'll catch up to you...I've gonna pause to tie my shoe, and not kick this nice doggie."
Does it make any sense for the others to say "NO! We reject your offer!"?
So, you CAN'T not kick the dog?? Huh? Wha?
That cease-fire proposal looked like an in-house directive on operations, not a demand upon NATO. What "offer" is NATO rejecting? Gimme a break. ---Aristotle

Oh yeah...
Gold. Get you some. (Gotta stay on topic, you know.)

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 17:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4398)

Jade...

Very interesting figures. Thanks for posting them. It will be interesting to see what the next move will be on their part. Another and FOA had talked about some type of deal int he works between the Gulf states and Europe. Saudi Arabia was just recently admitted to BIS. In my view, they won't completely dump the dollar, but try for some type of balance between it and the euro. The monarchies still have to worry about Saddam Hussein who spends a large amount of his time propagandizing his neighbors' populations about the virtues of his brand Islamic fundamentalism/nationalism and why they should get shed the monarchies. It won't happen if the economy gets better. As I said, there's much at stake here.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 17:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4399)

Hey MK

Nice touch. No one said it had to be a TROPICAL beach. The edge of a pristine mountain lake on a sunny day works fine. But you've gotta have a well stocked cooler, and a basket of sandwiches within easy reach of your lawn chair or hammock.

'Cause see, if your wealth is represented by Gold, that would truly be a stress-free outing. Otherwise, your get-a-way would be wracked with fretting and cries of "My kingdom for a Wall Street Journal!" Sheeeeesh. Who wants THAT?

Gold. It does a psyche good. ---Aristotle

YGM

(04/07/1999; 17:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4400)

USA GOLD

http://www.bis.org/press/index.htmSorry it's not my habit to make statements like that (BIS)
(loans to hedge funds) but I couldn't find it at the time in
BIS Bulls--t. I wasn't stating gold loans as it just says loans.
None the less this is significant as these measures are only
now being reported. I took it to mean they were cut off
some months ago. Look in BIS Quarterly Review Mar8/99,
Press Release. Line 9 paragraph 3.

Quote--- In particular, credit lines to entities in United States
and certain Carribean Centers, where some Major Hedge
Funds are located were not renewed. End Quote.

**Entire reveiew is enlightening and alot of doubletalk.
What else could one expect!----YGM

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 17:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4401)

Jade...

I didn't complete my thought there, but maybe it was implied. Just in case, the Gulf States won't shed the dollar completely because they need U.S. military protection against Saddam Hussein and the Iranians at the moment, and who know whom else in the future.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 17:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4402)

YGM...

Here's a good one for you:

Who is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt per the U.S. Treasury Department Quarterly Report?

Bet you don't know.

Those who read News & Views and remember, please don't give it away!

Everybody else make your guesses. Just for fun!

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 17:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4403)

Post-y2k reconstruction and the value of the dollar and gold

World War II provided the stage for the dollar to become the international currency. Many people have said that it was winning the war that allowed the the US and the dollar to gain such influence.

Not so. After the war, Europe, Japan, Russia were physically and ecomnomically devestated. America did not just take control; it bought control.

It bought control with the Marshal Plan, which in today's terms would probably be measured in trillions. America's financing and execution of the the post-war reconstruction was probably the largest investment in history. It might have resulted in the largest return on investment as well. The return was the planet's financial standard and system with an open door to most markets. In retrospect, the post war period was a period of unprecedented opportunity.

Could such an opportunity occur again? If y2k wreaks a broad international destruction and if, as some believe, the US come through stronger (relatively speaking) then the US will be able to finance and execute the post-y2k reconstruction.

Most of China's software has been pirated and they have hardly started their assesment let alon their remediation, testing and implementation.

Europe is not in good shape y2k-wise. Russia is worse off. The Saudiis are behind. Japan got a late start. South Korea....It goes on and on.

Let's assume that it is the old USofA again at the lead of reconstruction effort.

What would this do to the dollar? To gold? If some foriegn CB system fails but ours does not, would that CB temporarily use the dollar to hold the fort? Would weakened countries hold onto their dollars and compete for dollars?

Is it possible that both the dollar and gold would rise together?

Jade

(04/07/1999; 17:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4404)

YGM

My bet is that merry ole England is holding the largest percentage of our debt. Its sort of a NATO thing.

YGM

(04/07/1999; 17:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4405)

Treasury Debt--

Well finding out at their (Treas) site is like the Vaults of
Ft Knox. So --- as a guess---
I would venture it is "JAPAN"

Jade

(04/07/1999; 18:09:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4406)

Who are the potential buyers??

My background has somewhat of a sales slant to it. So I always question, who are the real potential buyers. With that statement, the short list excluding the citizens of the world seems be the following:
1. Japan
2. China
3. A couple of the Mid East Oil producers.

Each one these entities has the cash or foreign reserves to make the deal. So who will step to the plate first or who may already be up to bat??? A number of reasons for each one of these entities to make a play in Gold have been proposed here on the forum over the last few weeks. I wonder how long they can hold out before they make their move as the present price of Gold must be very tempting. Could there be an event that gets them to make their move? My guess is that a break in the dollar could be that event. Any other ideas???

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 18:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4407)

Tomcat, you've got a good bean atop your shoulders,

How about working out an answer to your questions as if you were the international consultant, and then tell us all what we might expect to see happen as a result. You'll amaze yourself with your grasp of the situation--just put yourself in the shoes of the various parties. Good luck! ---Aristotle

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 18:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4408)

Crier

The Marshall plan Era was very neatly summed up by a famous cartoon of the time.Some revolutionary types are plotting in a basement and the caption is: I know, let's declare war on them; then they'll re-habilitate us!

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 18:51:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4409)

Whoops

That was a response to Tomcat.

TownCrier

(04/07/1999; 19:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4410)

Hear ye! Hear ye! This Week in Gold is now updated

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlWeekly Commentary from The World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley has been provided to USAGOLD for the past week's major events shaping opinion in the gold market.

You are excused from the Round Table only long enough to review and form an opinion. Meet back here for discussion.

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 19:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4411)

Bingo!

Townie, thanks for the warning. This is what I've been waiting to see:

"The European Central Bank conducted its first quarterly revaluation of its foreign exchange and gold holdings. Due to currency movements, its gold holdings were revalued up from 99.589 billion euros to 105.32 billion euros."

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 19:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4412)

Peter and Tomcat...

There was also a movie with the same theme called "The Mouse That Roared." Good ole Peter Sellers. As a sovereign individual, Peter and Tomcat, do you think I could declare war on the United States, and.............

Better yet, let's do it as a sovereign FORUM. We would take some of that IMF gold for the bailout... Yes we would.... Pure .999 mellow yellow metal in nice neat little kilo bars..... Please forward our request to Al Gore and consider us defeated...

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 19:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4413)

E Mail from Christine...

Is it conceivable that there may be a three-pronged attack on the dollar
by euro supporters as we speak. Many here have probably heard of the
rumor going around that gold will finally be allowed to rise in June,
1999 (for those of us who believe that the price of gold has been
actively manipulated downward, esp by the European CB's). The three
pronged attack against the US dollar would be 1) European CB's stop or
at least reduce their leasing of gold starting in June, 1999, thereby
allowing the price of gold to start moving up, perhaps dramatically.
2)The oil cartel starts raising the price of oil in March, 1999, further
pressuring the US dollar. 3)The Japanese finally get the Nikkei and
yen moving in spring of 1999, also pressuring the dollar. If the price
of gold does start to move up soon (say June, 1999), could these three
events be a more closely orchestrated attack on the US dollar by euro
supporters than we realize.

---Christine

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 19:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4414)

Aristotle...

How do you read that ECB news? Gold has gone up in euros?

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 19:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4415)

You struck upon something, MK!

We are a sovereign forum! (Composed of sovereign individuals.)

Mental exercise for all: imagine that as a goldheart, you are in the position of the European Central Bank...sitting on all of that Gold. Are you particularly pleased that the "price" is now higher? After all, it reflects upon your currency being weaker.

Now, put yourself back in your own shoes. What do you want, higher prices, or MORE GOLD?

Go for the Gold! ---Aristotle

Jade

(04/07/1999; 19:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4416)

Aristotle

So what your saying here, is if they curtail the leasing, the European CB Gold comes back home. In essence, the Euro becomes further backed in Gold. It really looks like a true Gold War could break out.

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 20:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4417)

USAGOLD

USAGOLD, what an idea!

Let me extend it a tad. Let's form our own Soverign Internet Nation, SIN. Yes, we will all be SINNERS.

We can start by forming a gold backed CB, an Internet CB, we'll call it the ICB. Each of us could be a branch bank and our personal gold holdings would be the first deposits. The only problem is if we don't use a fractional reserve system then there might not be a need for a central bank!

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 20:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4418)

Peter Asher

Re: "The Marshall plan Era was very neatly summed up by a famous cartoon of the time.Some revolutionary types are plotting in a basement and the caption is: I know, let's declare war on them; then they'll re-habilitate us!"

Looks like the Soviets saw the cartoon. :)

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 20:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4419)

There's a good thought, Jade.

And as the contracting parties in the original Gold loan endeavor to lay hands on metal to satisfy their obligations, suddenly it is Gold that is in demand and hard to come by, not the 'precious' dollar. As I've come to learn from Aragorn III, it is obligations of contract that value can be found where it might not otherwise exist. The US dollar is a prime example of a current beneficiary of contract. After all, it doesn't even have INHERENT value to begin with. Gold at least has that. And as entities come to require Gold in the settlement of contract obligations (whether it be trading the king of commodities, or as outright pricing denominator (money!)), Gold will find a value far beyond what we might perceive its inherent value to be.

Hey MK, I can't help but keep thinking about our beach/mountain lake exchange. Do you know what I like about you beyond your grasp of economic affairs? I like what your "calling" has been for the past two+ decades. You literally sell "piece of mind." At least that is how I have come to view Gold. Life is too short to fret over complicated investment strategies that are always one step from the brink of collapse.

Ahhhhhh...breathe in the air. Rattle those ice cubes, and grab another sandwich. ---Aristotle

The Stranger

(04/07/1999; 20:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4420)

Howdy, Aristotle!

I've been out building a fence all day and apologize for making you wait for your response.

I have just read your #4375(today) and reread, per your suggestion, your #4364(yesterday). If you are not an economics professor, you probably ought to be. I very much appreciate your taking the time to address my remarks.

Ari, the reason I did not draw the same conclusion on this matter that you did is because I understand the Saudi's to have been experiencing negative cash flow of late. This would mean that money coming in is right back out the door again anyway. I know that, if the production cutbacks hold, this will probably change, but for the last eighteen months or so, that's the way it has been. Am I still confused?

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 20:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4421)

Aristotle ?

Was that spelling philisophicaly intentional? Gold (pieces of) brings piece of mind rather than peace of mind

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 20:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4422)

Christine, grab a password and join the table!

You have a good grasp on things in would seem. Here's the evidence from today alone that supports your three postions:

>>1) European CB's stop or at least reduce their leasing of gold starting in June, 1999, thereby allowing the price of gold to start moving up, perhaps dramatically<<

Evidence: (from TownCrier's World Gold Council report)
"Terry Smeeton, former head of Foreign Exchange at the Bank of England, said: "The central banks of Euroland are not going to be a significant source of supply for a long time, if at all." He also commented: "Large sales of gold by 'Other Europe', while not impossible, seem rather improbable." Echoing other recent calls for greater transparency in central bank dealings, Mr Smeeton proposed that this should be extended to activity in gold lending: "Central banks involved in the gold leasing and swaps markets should agree to make regular quarterly returns to the Bank for International Settlements in Basle of the amounts and maturities that they have outstanding to individual counterparties, so that the size of, and exposures in the market can be accurately measured.""

No doubt you are already aware that the Gold holdings will quarterly be revalued to reflect the fair market value. As I've demonstrated one side of the coin each to MK and Jade on my two recent posts...put them together for the whole picture. Euro "price" of Gold doesn't mean so much to the ECB as does its relative value against all things. Best case scenario is the "price" in euros to remain relatively stable versus Gold as the purchasing power of Gold bursts shackles and flexes its muscles.
---------------
>>2)The oil cartel starts raising the price of oil in March, 1999, further pressuring the US dollar.<<

Evidence: self evident!
---------------
>>3)The Japanese finally get the Nikkei and
yen moving in spring of 1999, also pressuring the dollar.<<

Evidence: (two of today's headlines from Econ News)
"Foreigners net buyers of Japan stocks via 12 foreign securities houses"
&
"SanFran Fed's Parry says worst may be over for Japan"
& one from yesterday posted here...
Japan slow to return to US bonds in new fiscal yr
-----------------
Now, if you don't grace our table with your presence, I shall be hurt, because I didn't reveal anything you didn't already know. All this work was simply to prove that your thoughts are a welcome addition to the group. Got it? Got Gold? (***snicker***) ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 20:51:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4423)

You are a sharp one, Peter!

I didn't think anyone would catch that, even with the giant clue, "literally," hanging in front of it as the biggest apparent malaprop of the day's commentary.

Kudos! I hate seeing good ones go wasted. ---Aristotle

onlychild

(04/07/1999; 21:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4424)

Aristole

Right you are about the peace of mind! Since I have aquired my little hoard I have been much easier to live with. I actually belive the stuff is more potent than Ritalin, and maybe Viagra too! It affects everyone differently.

Camel

(04/07/1999; 21:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4425)

Peter A.-Sea levels

I think I may have read the same article concerning a possible 20 foot sea level increase caused by the meltimg of the Antarctic ice shelfs and I think you are well advised to seek authoritative information.

I was able to look into it enough to determine that a sea level increase of that magnitude is not thought to be "imminent" in that it isn't likely to occur in the next year or even the next five years, but something is definately happening, and if current trends continue possibly in the next 20 years sea levels might begin to increase in a dramatic way.

A good map of Antarctica ( if you can find one) will tell the story. The major land mass of the continent is surrounded by a number of ice shelfs of great antiquity.The two largest of these, the Ross, and the Ronnie-Filcher cover two huge bays approching the size of the Gulf of Mexico. In adition there are a number of smaller ice shelfs such as the Larson and the Wordie covering an area approximately the size of a small New England state(4800sq miles), and it is these smaller ice shelfs that are breaking up.The Wordie collapsed in the 1980s and the LarsonA broke up in 1995.

The greatest temperature increases that have occured over the last few decades have occured at the Poles, about4.5degrees , and it is feared that if these patterns contine or even increase that the two larger ice shelfs, the Ross and the Ronnie will suffer the same fate as the Larson.

However it is not even the the loss of these two large ice shelfs that is the problem because for the most part they are already submerged under water and if they were to break up their volume of water probably would not cause a devastating sea level increase.

The problem is that they serve as a plug for vast quantities of ice that sit above the continent and which would otherwise flow directly into the sea dramatically and rapidly raisiing world sea levels.

I dont think anyone really has a definitive time line on these events,but suffice it to say that once they are set in motion it would be very difficult to stop.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 21:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4426)

Aristotle....The best indicator is

Those who own it, keep it. (Unless of course you happen to be a central bank.)

In the past year I have talked to a great many investors distraught about what's going on in the U.S. economy especially the political aspects. I always tell people when they get to this point to simply accumulate whatever amount of gold they feel comfortable with and go on with their lives. There really isn't a great deal any of us can do about most of this. So do something for yourself. Buy some protection, sit back and watch the show. (Didn't you just say something like that, Aristotle?)

On the other side of things, I simply enjoy talking about this stuff. If I didn't, I would be in big trouble, wouldn't I?

Thanks Aristotle and I do appreciate your attitude.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 21:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4427)

Jade and YGM....

On your guesses on the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries....

As McLaughlin would say:

Britain..........Wrrrrrrrrrrong!.

Japan...........Wrrrrrrrrrrong!

Though those are the two most people guess. Anyone else want to try before I spill the beans?

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 21:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4428)

Michael, Et, Ari, Aragon. and All

Than you for the response. I've wiped of that dust and am going to get back on my pet 'hobby horse', the market bubble. We have as an empirical fact that rising oil prices results in price increases in everything else. We have as virtual certainty that this will result in less funds for the stock market on the inflow side and lower earnings simultaneously creating more pressure to sell them. So here's Greenspan in the position of a farmer with all the chickens come home to roost, a fox in the hen house, and he's got only a sawed of scatter gun that will blow a hole in everything if he pulls the trigger. If he doesn't fire, the fox will eat the chickens.

Interesting that everyone calls the market condition a bubble, not a balloon. Balloons can deflate but go try and deflate a bubble!

Now moving on to that horrendous expansion of the money supply you mentioned. Where is it going? It has to get lent into existence. I'm going to try to answer my own question for a start..I haven't a clue as to how much of the gross market 'worth' is being carried by Margin credit. Could this account for a lot of this dollar flood. Certainly as the market rises that quantity expands with it.

This could be the big time bomb that blows the economy out of the water. If (when) stock prices fall dramatically, people who invested on margin will not lose some of their savings, they will be wiped out. Furthermore, if it comes down fast enough, even the margin lenders will be hit.

My conclusion is, if A.G. and the Gang can't keep Humpty Stock Market on the wall, all else pales by comparison. But hey, I'm not an economic expert, so maybe I've got it all wrong here. What do the rest of you guys think?

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 21:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4429)

T- Bill Guess

Or recall. Saudi??

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 21:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4430)

The Aristotle Challenge

The question was: What would happen to the value of the dollar and the POG if there was in international y2k collapse and the US, which got by with less damage than most, got to finance and execute the post-y2k reconstruction.

Per your will Sir Aristotle, I will humbly put forth my best attempt to answer the question.

Lets assume the simplist case. All banking systems except for the those in the US fail.

International commerce stops. So does all war (noone to finance the war machines). Since, the US banks in these countries work, the US offers to each country that they may temporarily use the US banks.

Inside each country the holders of US treasury notes, US currency, US assets and gold are the only people with that can use the banking system. They become the immediate elite.

For those without US assets or gold, barter is the only alternative. The demand for the dollar and gold become so strong the banks find themselves in more control than they want or now how to manage. Gold becomes the dream currency but since only about one ounce exists per person, silver becomes more and more valuable.

As time goes on, new goverments start to emerge, and start to issue their own currency which cannot compete with the dollar. The dollar now goes into conflict with the new goverments objectives. Some governments go back to the dollar, some reject it and fail.

The only solution for the countries is to borrow large sums from the US, which by now, is running low on printing presses.

While all this is happening, gold and silver become the master of the merchant. The black markets are then driven by gold first, silver second, and then the dollar.

Back home, is the US, the dollar is so inflated that one need to take out a mortgage to buy a cup of coffee. The good news is that all debts are paid off and every american is debt free. The bad news is that their aren't any amercians who can pay their 10 million dollar taxes. The Fed get the gracious idea to lend these wonderful hardworking Americans money to continue.

However, those Americans who were holding gold in the bowels of their back yards have now become the american financial elite.

MK expands into an international gold outlet chain: MK ULTRA. Aristotle goes into partnership with the Saudiis and gains all their oil assets based no a Forex scheme that he invented. TownCrier takes over the Murdochs publishing chain. Dad and his two son's somehow wind up in control of the BIS.

Thirty years pass. The Fed is about to give congress a briefing. A hush runs through the crowd. Hundreds kneel to the floor in respect to the master who is about to arrive. Slowly, the chamber doors open, trumpets blast, King Greenspan.....

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 21:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4431)

Peter...

Saudi's?

Wrrrrrrrrong!

Gandalf the White

(04/07/1999; 21:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4432)

Guesses and comments

1) Germany
2) More Tomcat MORE !
Knight all as I must leave early to slow the Nazguls AGAIN !
<;-)

Goldfly

(04/07/1999; 21:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4433)

I always figured Nippon....

How 'bout the Fed?

GF

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 21:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4434)

USAGOLD

Ok, who is super conservative and wants no conflict and has money, lots of it, and like to hedge both ways. Hey, how about the Swiss?

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 22:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4435)

Goldfly

Goldfly, that was great. I'm still cracking up. The Fed! Foriegn. Brilliant!

The Stranger

(04/07/1999; 22:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4436)

M.K.

Michael, why you would spend so much time communicating with a crank like me is beyond my comprehension. I keep thinking I'm going to be ushered right out the door, if I don't quit challenging everything that gets said around here. Anyway, I thank you for your forbearance, and I especially thank you for taking the time to respond to me so thoroughly in your remarks made earlier today.

It occurs to me that my most recent post to Aristotle might just as well have been addressed to both of you. I should have read your remarks before responding to his.

I usually do a lot of investigating before I risk my money on something. I have only owned gold (mining stocks) once before, in 1993-94 (I made a LOT of money, too, by the way). Now I am in them again, obviously. But I find it fundamentally impossible to own gold, or anything else for that matter, if it is to be for reasons based upon rumors or theories. I am just not built that way.

I think it is great, for example, that Y2K approaches. Anything that might get ANYBODY to buy gold is okay with me. But, even if Y2K is everything we fear, it can't, by itself, very well help gold much beyond next January. Not, that is, unless we are expecting a near collapse of civilization. And what if gold does almost nothing between now and then? Are we all supposed to say, "gee, I guess I was wrong," and sell?

This is one reason why I prefer to disbelieve "oil for gold". In fact, as often as I have predicted the resurgence of OPEC, I would even advise caution with our new fifth horseman. What if the production cutbacks don't stick? What Venezuela or Indonesia start cheating again. Then do we accept defeat and sell?

It seems to me that the real reason for owning gold today transcends the temporary influences mentioned above. And, it is so compelling, that I almost have to restrain myself from mortgaging my house to buy even more (God, help me!). You, yourself have discussed it twice in the last 24 hours. Money Growth! We are up to our eyeballs in it. And if, to quote Milton Friedman..."inflation is a MONETARY phenomenon", then we have most certainly got some headed our way. Now, THAT is something I can "get my arms around".

onlychild

(04/07/1999; 22:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4437)

Concealed carry vote

In our election yesterday the people of Missouri were given the opportunity to vote on a concealed weapons law. It was supported by most of the state with the exception of St. Louis whose voters were able to override the remainder of the population. (Maybe a few dead folks voting down there, often times these important issues bring them back to voice their opinion). But I have to stand back and wonder, with all this coverage on Kosovo, how can people vote down a proposition that would give them defense? Does anyone think that the Serbs would be commiting these atrocities if the populus were armed? I know that seems a far cry from the situation at hand, but I still want everyone to consider it. Before anyone thinks our government is beyond genocide, do a little research on the hell that Andrew Jackson's Indian Removal Act unleashed. You know what they say about the reason for studying history.

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 22:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4438)

Who owns America?

Gandalf......Wrrrrrrrrrong!

Goldfly.......Wrrrrrrrong!

Tomcat.........Wrrrrrrrrrong!

USAGOLD

(04/07/1999; 22:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4439)

The correct answer is........

Carribean Banking Centers

Goldfly

(04/07/1999; 22:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4440)

Ooooooh Foriegn......

Sorry, missed that. (DOH!)

But we *are* a newly declared Sovreign Nation.....

Anyway.....Ok, who's got money? The Swiss? Well....nahh....

The Russians?....Ha! oho hahahahaha... Wouldn't
that be a corker?

The Chinese? Nah!

Miami? (Oooooooooo)

Canada! No, no, no, no.

I'll bet Gandalf is right. Germany!

GF

Goldfly

(04/07/1999; 22:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4441)

Carribean Banking Centers!!!! That was my next guess!!!

really

really it was

honest

GF

Jade

(04/07/1999; 22:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4442)

T-Bills

No wonder the BIS won't loan the hedge funds anymore money.
Their sitting on top of all the debt. Now I suppose all the Fort Knox Gold is in Cuba.

YGM

(04/07/1999; 22:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4443)

MK--Or Anyone?

So does this mean if the Funds get taken down because of
Derivatives Exposure they have to sell U S Notes or Bonds
or other Gov't Debt instruments. If LTCM had collapsed
would they have held T-Bills etc in Assets? If this is the
case I'd say we're up to about 6 or more different darts
coming at the bubble!---YGM
(this web gets more tangled every week that goes by)

Tomcat

(04/07/1999; 22:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4444)

Goldfly

Goldfly, I still like your original answer the best.

I thought you were being facetious and implying that the Fed is actually controlled by foriegn banks.

Gandalf the White

(04/07/1999; 23:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4445)

Take that further,Tomcat

Educate me as to who does own the FED ! Is membership a secret club ? 12 Regional Fed Banks --- who are the owners and officers ? I'll bet that the 12 "banks" have made far more millionaires than MSFT, Amazon and the other "local nurds" have made in the Seattle area !
<;-)

Peter Asher

(04/07/1999; 23:07:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4446)

Michael, Who'da thought

I didn't even realize those were an entity. However that fact raises a lot of questions. The first one being that maybe we're not under the redemption gun as much as we thought ???

Jade

(04/07/1999; 23:17:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4447)

Peter

Or worse yet, we have a new group who really knows how to pull the trigger. Nothing like a little hedge fund blackmail. This sure is going to be one hellava year!!

Aristotle

(04/07/1999; 23:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4448)

Sorry for starting so many conversations then departing.

I had to take a brief turn "swinging in the hammock and enjoying the show." (Yes MK, that was something I recently said.)

Tomcat...bravo! Loved what you did in rising to the challenge, especially the ending! YeeHaa!

Onlychild...thanks for your additional thoughts. They confirm a universal truth.

Stranger...I somehow missed your reply prior to sandwich munching and hammock-swaying departure. Let me compose some thoughts for you in a little bit...gotta re-read in order to intellegently respond. But let me say this now--I've a good feeling for the way you are wired, given your discription of your investment strategy (decide what it the most likely winner and put all your eggs in that basket.) So this advice will be very tough for you to take. Buy some Gold. Just a little bit so that you don't feel like you are betraying your internal investment guideposts. I would suggest contacting MK for five coins...specifically the French 20 franc roosters. They are nearly a fifth ounce in weight, so will cost you a paltry $300(approx.) These coins are beautiful, and five will give you the satisfaction of making a little stack, and hearing them 'clink' in the palm of your hand. Take a moment to read onlychild's post to me for confirmation. You will definately experience a small transformation in thought, and achieve a clarity of mind and spirit. It's true! Think of this as a very cheap experiment in probing the portion of your subconscious that is still a "stranger."

Anyone who hasn't OWNED at least a small bit of monetary gold (Gold jewelry does not have the same effect, not even close!), has no idea what I'm saying here, and can't imagine what they are missing regarding the sense of calm and peace of mind. Everyone else knows EXACTLY what I'm talking about. Isn't that RIGHT, fellows? Feel free to chime in. Tell us all about your first discovery of monetary Gold, and what happened to your perspective on life on Earth subsequent to that Gold ownership.

Stranger, you are a vital member of our Table. Never question your welcome here. If you start getting out of line, believe me, I'll reach over and thump some sense back into you! Now do me a favor and get that leettle bitty stack o' beeyoooteefull French roosters. If they have no other effect on you, at the least they will help prop up your mining investments, and will give you a physical connection to this Castle and the Round Table that we all frequent in good spirit and cheer.

I'll post this, then take a look at the points nearer to your heart. Back in a bit. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 02:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4449)

GOLD: Romania attempts to fulfil dreams

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qa636e.htmGold in the news. Nothing particularly Earth-shattering. You need to register (free) to visit the Financial Times.

SteveH

(04/08/1999; 03:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4450)

June gold now...

$282.50.

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 05:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4451)

Stranger...than fiction

I got tied up with a project that took more time than I expected, so your reply is going to be delayed a bit, Stranger. Just thought I should let you know since I said a follow-up was due in short order.

It was a Gold-related project, though! (had to throw that in to keep this on topic. How sad is that??) ---Aristotle

NORTH OF 49

(04/08/1999; 08:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4452)

The Eagle Has Landed

with tailfeathers intact. Gone fish'n!

No49

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 09:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4453)

Welcome home, good buddy!

Glad to have you back safely on our end of the Earth, Dr. Jones!

The Stranger

(04/08/1999; 09:55:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4454)

Sheeeeeesh!

Ari, forget what I said about economics professor. You should be a GOLD MERCHANT!

I am going to hold on your suggestion for the time being. Most of my savings are in gold-related investments already. From here on out, we are talking grocery money. I am going to have to see the momentum turn our way before spending that.

Uptrends! Get us one!

The Stranger

(04/08/1999; 10:03:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4455)

PPI

Gold is down $.40 right now. Couldn't hold this morning's bounce. The long bond is up about half a point. March PPI is due out tomorrow. Hasn't anybody noticed gasoline prices yet? Sheeeesh! (Howdy, Aristotle).

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 10:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4456)

Today's Market Report: Britain Lowers Lending Rate

MARKET UPDATE (4/8/99): Gold moved slightly higher in early trading as the dollar
retreated against most currencies. The European Central Bank meets today amidst
speculation that it may reduce rates. The Bank of England announce a .25% rate cut. Oddly
the British stock market reversed itself after the announcement and began a retreat. If the
ECB follows suit then all eyes will be on the Fed in the coming weeks to see if it will
follow suit. The money supply is already growing at a double digit rate and the dollar's
strength.

In Brief..........In Ethiopia's remote Gobele desert a pride of lions and pack of hyenas are
vying for supremacy. Reuters reports that six lions and 30 hyenas have died. Bill Clinton is
meeting with his advisors to determine which side the United States should take and
whether or not NATO bombers should be sent to the region................Ethnic and
religious violence has erupted all over Indonesia...............How often have you heard of
unscrupulous web site operators attempting to get parents names and addresses by enticing
children to fill out various forms. Well guess who came under heavy criticisms at a recent
press briefing unveiling a web site that did precisely that? The Al "I-Invented-the-Internet"
Gore for President campaign. Can you believe it? The Gore campaign quickly backtracked
and removed the offending form.(See Washington Post article)...According to a
Washington Post/ABCNew Poll 57% of Americans are in favor of the use of U.S. and
allied ground troops if the Balkan bombing fails to force Milosevic to the peace
table.........A diver who spent 30 years looking for gold in World War I shipwreck off the
Irish coast finally found it -- all $3.2 million worth.............That's it for today, fellow
gold meisters.

If you would like to receive a free copy of our newletter News & Views, please click on
form below and we will send it to you. For a teaser on this month's letter go to The Gilded
Opinion and read the Fifth Horseman where you will find some interesting charts on the
relationship between oil prices and inflation.

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 10:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4457)

Add on...

Somehow the last part of the report got cut off. Here it is:

The money supply is already growing at a double digit rate and the dollar's strength has wreaked havoc with the import/export picture. The U.S. Trade Deficit is at record levels with no relief in sight.

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 10:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4458)

"Howdy, Stranger."

"Most of my savings are in gold-related investments already. From here on out, we are talking grocery money."

When it was characterized as putting all eggs in one basket, who'd woulda thought the operative word was 'ALL'! Sounds like you had better take out an egg or two and fry 'em up for lunch.

Ok, so put the 5-coin peace-of-mind plan on hold. An empty belly takes priority.

You are totally over-the-edge GUNG-HOoooooooo! (sheesh!)I hope those companies work out for you, and all those eggs turn into fuzzy yellow chics. OK, so the metaphor got outta hand... ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 11:02:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4459)

Priceless...

Well done, MK.
"In Ethiopia's remote Gobele desert a pride of lions and pack of hyenas are
vying for supremacy. Reuters reports that six lions and 30 hyenas have died. Bill Clinton is
meeting with his advisors to determine which side the United States should take and
whether or not NATO bombers should be sent to the region..."

Goldfly

(04/08/1999; 11:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4460)

Tomcat- The Fed and foriegn ownership

http://www.cofc.edu/~flaherty/own.html
I had been under the impression that the Fed WAS owned by foriegners (CB's), however before I made such an assertion on this august forum, I figured I should check my sources.

I found the contraty at the above link. Of course, he could probably stand some checking too.

GF

Gandalf the White

(04/08/1999; 12:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4461)

Nice Surfing Goldfly !

That is a very good START on the discussion of the FED.
<;-)

T. Remital

(04/08/1999; 12:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4462)

HOPE NOT

http://38.201.154.103/articles/?a=1999/4/8/73748Date: Thu Apr 08 1999 10:15
Shek (Gold and Russia) ID#290264:
"Russia appears to be hoarding food, fuel, gold, and other commodities - an essential preparation for a major war. Despite claims of poverty and famine, Russia is stockpiling millions of tons of food and urging its people to buy gold. It is interesting to note that the Kosovo crisis began just as the last shipments of billions of dollars of Western food aid reached Russia."

You may not like what you see here*****

Return to Kitco Homepage

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 12:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4463)

Gandalf and Goldfly

http://www.usagold.com/FederalReserve.htmlYou numbskulls! (And I can call you that 'cause I luv you guys.)

Why'd ya surf all over the web when that info was in the next room? Granted, the pints of ale are all in here, but C'mon! Surely you've accidentally stumbled into that one on your way the the little knight's room.

Tsk...tsk...tsk... ---Aristotle

Gandalf the White

(04/08/1999; 13:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4464)

WHAT ?? There is more to USAGOLD than the FORUM ?

Thanks for removing the blinders Ari, tunnel vision is so confining. BUT, Goldfly was checking out the SOURCE of that post !
<;-)

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 13:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4465)

Hear ye! Hear ye! ...Stop the **fanfare**--they can't hear me!

His Majesty the King has sent his messenger to deliver these good tidings while he is far afield with the Masters. Judgment has been rendered by the Council of Elders, and the report is that the deliberations went long into the night for days.

Behold! The precious metal is at hand! Each and every report by you various, most noble knights and ladies was as an adornment to be added to the Hall of Treasures. Congratulations are due to all of the participating advisors.

But alas! Precious metal is indeed precious, and cannot be awarded to all deserving of such fine reward. The task to award the Grandest of Prizes, Gold from within these walls, was made possible by the finest of margins. Over days of worthy council, it was foretold by only three wise men that RISING OIL PRICES (distinct from his kinsman, INFLATION) was indeed the Fifth Horseman as that menacing figure approaching from the lands beyond.

The GOLD prize has been awarded to Sir onlychild, who in his good wisdom conveyed the key sentiment that the PRICE OF OIL is built into everything that touches our sovereign lives, from day's beginning to day's end. We had best take heed of the Fifth Horseman!

Precious silver gifts were to be given to those three with tales of particularly distinguished merit, whether for the advice therein, or the enthrallment with which they held their audience. My Good Company, there was no chaff to be separated from the wheat. Everyone is worthy of recognition. The King has declared that such noble advisors must be consulted often, and we shall do this again, soon!

But to the three...hairs could not be split finely enough, and four had to be chosen. Stand forward, Sir Goldfly...who started the exchange well with captivating news of WAR! Stand forward, Sir High Density...who wove together an equally captivating account of each of the five horsemen, told in high style, for the likes of which we have so often praised Sir Goldfly, the bard. Stand forward, Sir Peter Asher...who spun a rich fabric of many-colored threads, some familiar, some fantastic. And finally, step forward, Sir canamami...who delivered a considered counsel on the level of a London Economist statesman.

The Kingdom is wealthier for the knowledge you have all shared. Let us continue our day with peace and goodwill for all those who continue to grace this castle. "Never was a finer group assembled," His Majesty was heard to say.

Until tomorrow...we shall await the revelation of our most skilled marksman for the week!

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 14:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4466)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals

New York-April 8-FWN--Silver futures finished with a
loss here today, although it was linked to a lack of
buying interest rather than any aggressive selling, sources
said. Gold and platinum finished slightly higher while
palladium lost ground.
June gold added 40 cents to $282.70.
"Gold was relatively quiet with some range-bound trade
today," said Meger. Prices are now pulling back after a
rally off trendline support last week of $279.10, he
continued.
The dollar has pulled back some lately, which tends to
benefit precious metals, after it had initially firmed in
the aftermath of NATO air raids due to the Kosovo crisis, he
added.
"I do view this (gold) market as being in an oversold
condition below the $280 level," Meger said.
He noted that the bearish news appears to already be
factored into gold, in particular comments from French,
German and U.S. officials last month suggesting some
International Monetary Fund gold sales may be necessary to
help fund debt relief for poor countries.
"With all of this factored into the market, one would
believe the $275 to $280 level to be good support for the
market, basis that June contract," said Meger.
More specifically, the analyst put support for June
gold at $280.30, $279.50 and $276. Resistance was listed at
$283.50, $284.40 and $286.40.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 14:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4467)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Apr 8--COMEX
Jun gold settled up 40c at $282.70 per ounce after creeping up to a 9-day
high of $283.50. Traders said that gold was largely rangebound and lackluster,
but noted that it was continuing to see bits and pieces of short-covering and
bargain hunting after its drop Monday to a contract low of $279.10.
One trader noted that a large trade house had been a seller earlier today,
but then "later on turned buyer."

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Peter Asher

(04/08/1999; 14:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4468)

I'ts all so logical, huh?

Yahoo announces earnings for the quarter of 11c vs. 2c and the stock doesn't go up. So, the annual P/E went from 20,000:1 to 'only' 1900:1 and here's the analysis:

"It's buy on the rumor, sell on the news," Peter
Coolidge, senior equities trader at Brean Murray,
said when asked why the stock was not more
buoyant on the good report.

I'm glad we have brilliant people like Mr. Coolidge to explain these mysteries to us.

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 14:28:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4469)

Clinton says China too slow improving human rights

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990408/bam.htmlNow what's he gonna do? Bomb 'em??

TownCrier

(04/08/1999; 14:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4470)

European Bank Cuts Interest Rates

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990408/germany_in_2.htmlTHE news of the day.

(04/08/1999; 14:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4471)

The FED

http://www.norfed.org/debtfor.htmGoldfly
Dr. Edward Flaherty author of the article "Who Owns and Controls the Federal Reserve" posted in USA Gold's Gilded Opinion sounds to me like a paid apologist for the FED. The FED was established in 1913 after a secret meeting held between US and European Bankers (Rothchilds and Warburgs) and several members of congress. The FED today continues to be highly secretive in its dealings and has never been audited. The name is deceptive in that it is a private organization not part of the Federal Government and holds not reserves but rather debt for the people. We know it was born in Conspiracy. (see The Creature from Jekyll Island, by G. Edward Griffin) so at what point in time did it quit conspiring against the people? YGM shared the above post earlier in the week, maybe for balance Michael should place this in the Guilded opinion. Michael, I realize your Guilded Opinion posts are typically much more concise. Over the years a number of members of congress have spoken out against the FED and proposed legislation to abolish it, the latest being Congressman Ron Paul.

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 16:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4472)

http://www.usagold.com/RonPaul.htmlHave you seen this at the Gilded Opinion?

Tomcat

(04/08/1999; 16:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4473)

Aristotle, Gandalf, and Goldfly Gandalf and Goldfly

I want to thank you for leading me to the Fed Ownership article. However, another side of me, TP, which stands for Tomcat's Paranoia is very upset with you. Here is a replay of a conference between me and TP.

Tomcat's Paranoia (TP): "Don't believe that stuff about the FED. The FED is a conspiracy and nothing is going to change my mind."

Tomcat: "What are you so upset about?"

TP: "Upset! I'll tell you why I am upset. I'm about to be put out to pasture. The international bankers, Bilderbergers, the CFR, the FED, the New World Order, ...man that's my lifeblood. If you believe Edward Flaherty's artice then I'm dead meat....and... and... I'll quit! Ya, I'll quit."

Tomcat: "Whoa old buddy. We've been together a long time. Why don't you go see if Elizabeth is doing that handsome weighlifter. She was eyeing his biceps last night.

TP: Great idea! I just know she can't be trusted. Did you see him looking back at her...

Peter Asher

(04/08/1999; 17:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4474)

Error in post # 4468

Committing the sin of sarcasm must have dulled my brain. The true numbers are that The P/E of Yahoo went from 7500:1 to 1400:1. Fortunately I made this error outside of trading hours, so no one was swayed from availing themselves of this incredible buying opportunity.

(04/08/1999; 17:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4475)

USA GOLD

Yes, I did see that, but had forgotten about it. I am pleased to admit it provides the balance I was looking for.
I guess that is why I frequent this site, I learn from the information that is shared.

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 17:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4476)

Conspiracy

Hey JA, you've now got me wondering if I might be some sort of product of a conspiracy. My mother is an American with direct ties to "agents" of Germany and England, meanwhile my father is himself a european "agent" permanently restationed to America. I can only imagine the knowing glances and secretive trysts that took place prior to the engagement and contracts that eventually led to my creation out of nothing...born unto debt, as it were. Kinda makes me want to re-evaluate my whole existence. You just can't trust those Europeans any further than you can throw them. :)

I'll definately concede the point that banking with fractional reserves is fraudulent activity--putting bankers in league with con-artists. But banks pre-dated the Fed, and they would certainly be happier to have the Fed and its regulatory capacity off of their backs. The thing that bites about Central Banks in general is that they provide enough stability to an otherwise unstable business paradigm (fractional reserve lending), that we are forced to deal with a system at this date that otherwise would have failed under the rigors of natural business demands years ago. The Fed simply ups the ante.
And if I'm wrong?? Hey, I've got lots of gold today that I could not have possibly acquired under another scenario.
If some stuffed-shirt european banker shows up at my door telling me I must do push-ups because he now "owns" me, I swear I'd die laughing on the spot! ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 17:43:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4477)

JA...you said it, Brother.

Balance is the key. Anything else should be fixed, or used for entertainment purposes only. :)

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 17:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4478)

Investment advice from the House of Rothschild circa mid to late 19th Century

"....hold a third of one's wealth in securities (bonds), a third in real estate; and a third in jewels and artworks, to treat the stock exchange like a cold shower (quick in -quick out); ...leave the last 10% to someone else..."

From Niall Ferguson's "House of Rothschild: Money Prophets 1798 - 1848"

Another insight:

"One exception to the rule (the 18th Century nation state's reputation as high risk investments) was the British state, which since the later seventennth century had developed a relatively sophisticated system of public borrowing (the national debt) and monetary management (the Bank of England). Another exception was the small German state of Hesse-Kassel, which was effectively run by its ruler at a profit through hiring out of his subjects as mercenaries to other states. Involvement in the management of his huge investment portfolio was one of the first steps Mayer Amschel Rothschild took in order to become a banker rather than a mere coin dealer (his original business)."

The Rothschilds did not make their initial fortune in lending money to governments and collecting interest. They made it in brokering the debt to investors.

From "House of Rothschild": "What determined the ups and downs of the nineteenth century bond market? The answer to this question is central to any understanding of the history of the Rothschild bank. Obviously, short term economic factors played an important part -- in particular, the conditions for short term borrowing and the appeal of alternative private securities. But the most important factor was political confidence: the confidence of investors (and especially big market making investors like the Rothschilds) in the ability of bond issuing states to continue to meet their obligations -- that is to pay the interest on the bonds."

Tomcat

(04/08/1999; 18:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4479)

http://www.cofc.edu/~flaherty/audit.html

Regarding your statement: "The FED today continues to be highly secretive in its dealings and has never
been audited."

This link is to an article that seems to be well researched and shows a history of FED audits. The author is Dr. Edward Flaherty.

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 19:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4480)

Another Great E-Mail from Christine...Got a code?....

Thank you Aristotle for your considerate response, and to MK for taking
the time to post my question/hypothesis. I have been reading here for
several months and have picked up many insightful analyses. I have one
other hypothesis that perhaps someone(s) may have a response, insight,
or even to share a similar viewpoint: Is it possible that the apparent
euro/ US dollar conflict is really a calculated battle being controlled
by yet another higher level of wealth and power. If this were the
case, I doubt all the players in the euro/US dollar conflict would be
aware the conflict is rigged. To me there are many disparate events
that don't make sense unless "another layer " is added into the
hypothesis. One huge "disparate event" is Alan Greenspan himself. He
surely must recognize what is going on in the US market and economy, and
yet he seems completey unperturbed or worried, as if everything is
wonderfully on track . Perhaps from his viewpoint, everything in the
US and world economy is exactly where desired. Greenspan's cohorts are
not likely the US government per se, but may be affiliated with the US
government. " Tomcat" here commented that a strong attack on the US
dollar is the kind of action that starts BIG wars. That is exactly one
of the great mysteries about the euro/US dollar conflict that has
baffled me for months. IMHO, the euro might prevail for a shorttime, but
it is simply not a viable long-term solution or strategy for numerous
reasons. Perhaps the only way to resolve such inherent
deficiencies/inadequacies is to conclude that the euro/dollar conflict
is not entirely real to all players at all levels, but is something of a
staged drama to set the stage for the next act, which I can only imagine
as some kind of powerful gold-backed international currency. Why a
gold-backed currency? Perhaps to prevent SIN and SINNERS (am only half
kidding on this part--loss of political/economic control via the
internet may be a big issue for the powerful and most wealthy)..Thanks
for any thoughts. Christine

USAGOLD

(04/08/1999; 19:33:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4481)

Christine...

By the way, I agree. I think we are headed toward a gold backed international currency...OUT OF NECESSITY. The experiment to replace gold with "enlightened human judgement" is a miserable failure. Right Indonesia? Right Brazil? Russia? Mexico? Argentina? Thailand? The Phillipines? China? Japan? Korea? And on and on?

Right United States?

I watch Mr. Iodrag Ilic ask Larry King if they enjoy Yugoslavia's tragedy and my heart goes out to him. The well fed, sheepishly smiling, politically correct representatives of the U.S. press don't know what to say to this man. The very intelligent exiled princess from Yugoslavia is conspicuous by her abscence.

It's called: "Let's sell this war to the American people". It's not working.

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 20:16:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4482)

Christine, Christine...

You really ought to get a password. And that is not just patronizing drivel. You probably have a wealth of interesting thoughts waiting to be uncorked. So far I like what I'm seeing.
Your comments and questions, together with JA, and Tomcat, and all the others that ponder depths of our freedom or potential thraldom to the unknown and unseen control/will of others takes me back to the second part of Tolstoy's W&P epilogue. My memory is fuzzy, but it explores an individual's freewill, the power of the masses, and the essence of the mass will finding a conduit through the individual who rises to power simply because he/she embodies the collective will of the population. I highly recommend this 40 page section as a stand-alone reading assignment to everyone that hasn't the time or will to read War and Peace in its entirety. It helped me shape my thinking in regard to the ability of individual "leaders" to shape the world to their personal will. It can't be done.
Individually, we are as free as we choose to be; and collectively, well, we've gotten what we've asked for.

Grassroots is where it all rests. If you put gold into the hands of the grassroots, we'd rule ourselves and thereby rule the world. Pretty exciting stuff, isn't it?!

Gold. Fertilizer for the grassroots. Get you some. ---Aristotle

PS. Hey MK--whether requested or not, send Christine a password to post. Odds are excellent she'll use it. Won't you, Christine. (notice no question mark)

Aristotle

(04/08/1999; 20:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4483)

Gads...

I still owe Stranger a reply, and I'm totally shot. Last night was a very late one filled with projects, so tonight the logs must be sawed...earlier and longer than usual. My heavy eyelids offer no room for arguing the matter.

Tiiimmmmmmmberrrrrr! zzzzzzzz ---Aristotle

backlash

(04/08/1999; 21:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4484)

How about this as a solution?

Clinton says China too slow improving human rights>

. . . .Therefore he could consider selling them more of our technology. Surely that will change their minds. Sheeeeesh (Sorry Aristotle, but I just could't help it.)

Best Wishes,bl

SteveH

(04/08/1999; 21:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4485)

Congrats to contest winners...

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/The above link is mucho bueno reading.

OBTW:June gold is now $282.30

Peter Asher

(04/08/1999; 21:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4486)

Michael

"Some familiar, some fantastic". You said in your gracious award post. I reviewed my piece and concluded that by fantastic you meant this part??

I recall awhile back, that the Japanese where using their strong Yen to cheaply buy all sorts of American businesses and real estate, including about half of Hawaii. There was some clamoring in congress to pass laws against foreign ownership of real estate I think, and maybe more. Whatever it was, it faded away because after all it was MONEY. About the same time the British financier Goldschmidt, bought out Crown Zellerbachs' timberland (A substantial chunk if Oregon) and later sold it back to us for triple the value. I'm a little vague on all the details of this but that's the general idea of what I recall.

So, if the dollar tanks and Overseas Investors have inflated buying power, they're not going to buy Chevys are they? What I'm suggesting is that if a situation occurred whereby we were substantially more susceptible to our assets being acquired than the time of the poor Dollar-Yen ratio, well than a massive asset takeover could threaten. Especially if the price of corporate shares had fallen drastically. Now maybe that would be scarey enough to actually create some legislative protection!

What I was trying to do with that allegory (aside from the irresistible urge to have fun casting Oil as Darth Vader) was take the chain of events further into the future than the return of Oil fed Inflation.

What might turn out to really be fantastic is what Greenspan & Co. will come up with to try and prevent this.

Peter Asher

(04/08/1999; 21:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4487)

Steve

Thanks for URL. He's sure playing my song! Nice to have some hard numbers to go with it. I've got more, but I've also got the same eyelid problem as Aristotle, so like, later!

(04/08/1999; 21:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4488)

Aristotle

I must admit you have a keen sense for Humor, They say laughter is good for the soul. Well your posts have been good for my soul, they help to remind me not too take things too seriously. I can just picture you writing some of this stuff with a grin on your face and a twinkle in your eye. And you say it's all because you hold gold!

Actually my ancestors came from Europeans countries as well. Many of them came here to pursue religious freedom, some fought in the revolutionary war. When I meet these people in the next life, I don't want to be guilty of taking their sacrifices for granted or squandering the freedoms they fought for. I think there are good people in all nations of the world. However, historically this nation has been blessed because of the freedoms we have enjoyed as expressed in the constitution.

(04/08/1999; 21:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4489)

Steve H

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/We must be thinking alike, I found of particular interest the portion of Bill Fleckenstein's article that discusses the amount of debt creation that was necessary to generate a rather nominal growth in GDP. Almost $5 of debt creation was necessary to generate $1 GDP.

(04/08/1999; 22:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4490)

(No Subject)

http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/Quote from Steven Jon Kaplan

"On Thursday, April 8, 1999, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 moved up 0.45 to end at a new all-time closing high of 35.64, according to Dow Jones News. By almost any measure, including the ratios of price to book, total market capitalization to GDP, and dividend yield to bond yield, the last time any equity market was so overvalued was in London in 1720. Some London 1720 benchmarks have already been overtaken in recent weeks, leaving the 1637 Holland tulipmania as the only historic extreme not yet exceeded. Future generations will look back in amazement (and anger, if they're stuck with the paper)."

onlychild

(04/08/1999; 22:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4491)

Thanks MK

Huh? What? Sir Onlychild? Somebody musta slapped me with a sword when I wuz'nt lookin'. Knighthood.....cool! Now I can set my sights on higher goals, maybe King! Thanghugh, thanghughverymuuush. Did I sound like The King?
The choice of rising oil price came fairly easy, but maybe that's because I've been pissed off for the last four weeks as I've watched the price of unleaded go from .75 to 1.05 per gallon. I've been having flashbacks of 1979/80 (was'nt driving yet in '73 or '74, so I don't recall that one as well)Anyway, I hate to say it but, here we go again. It's like being the victim of an armed robbery, you feel so helpless as you watch someone run off with your money.

By the way I'd like to solicit comments from the table on the new system that allows people to know if you're online anywhere on the planet.
Thanks again MK, where else but in the good old US of A.

Goldfly

(04/08/1999; 22:44:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4492)

Oh-oh...

Looks like I opened up a can of worms this afternoon. Listen guys, don't get me wrong: I'm no FoF (Fan of Fed.) It's just that it looks like I have been misinformed and was about to spread that misinformation. No good can come from basing my position (or my paranoia) on fallacies, right?

USAGOLD- thanks for the silver medal! I'm pleased to think that I contribute something considered to be worthwhile at this table of profound and extraordinary THOUGHTS!

GF

Gandalf the White

(04/08/1999; 23:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4493)

Sir Onlychild's question

Is it ICQ of which you speak ?
<;-)

(04/09/1999; 00:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4494)

Tomcat

I read the Dr. Flaherty article you referenced. I still think he is a paid apologist for the FED. My cursory reading of the article suggests the following.

1913 to 1921 he says audits were conducted by the Treasury Department, thats like having a business partner audit your books.

1921- he says GAO created to audit the "Board" IMHO If one only audits what occurs in Board Meetings it would be easy to overlook most of what is happening in the business.

1933-1952 He says the federal Reserve Banks audit the Boards Books, How convenient, no bias there. We would all do a thorough job if assigned to audit our bosses.

1952-1978 The Board employ's firms to audit itself. Doesn't sound very independent to me.

1978 Congress passed the Federal Banking Agency Act which puts FED back under GAO. He say's over 100 audits have been conducted. He refers to performance audits and gives several examples, it sounds like a discussion of how the actions of the FED impact other businesses.

Dr. Flaherty was candid enough to mention the exemptions to the Scope of GAO Audits as indicated below:

Exemptions to the Scope of GAO Audits
However, the GAO does not have complete access to all aspects of the
Federal Reserve System. The Federal Banking Agency Audit Act of 1978
stipulates the following areas are to be excluded from GAO inspections:

(1) transactions for or with a foreign central bank, government of a foreign country, or nonprivate international financing organization;

(2) deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy matters, including discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, open market operations;

(3) transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee; or

(4) a part of a discussion or communication among or between members of the Board of Governors and officers and employees of the Federal Reserve System related to items.

It sounds to me like all the areas where mischief in the bank is likely to occur is exempt from the audit.

Dr. Flaherty convinced me that audits of the Board's Books have occurred. It now appears a more correct statement on my part would have been an "through independent audit of the Federal Reserve Bank" has never taken place.

SteveH

(04/09/1999; 04:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4495)

June gold now...

moving on up...

$283.60.

Was talking to my accountant with who I have shared many years of acquantence. One said, "Hey, you still in those gold stocks?"

They knew I had lost money last year in them. "Yes, why?"

"You know you are going to loose more money?" one said.

"Why is that?"

"Commodity prices are going down," he said.

"Oh, looks like oil is up."

"In real-term dollars it is actual cheaper than in the early 70's."

"I suppose gold is too, some people say we are in a deflation," I offered.

"More people are beginning to believe so."

They know I believe that gold will go up soon.

"Look around you, inflation isn't dead. In fact, look at what food and medicine cost you, and look at the stock market. What is the P/E there now?

He said, "Around 30 to 34 to 1 or so."

"Is that normal?"

"No."

"What is normal?" I said.

"About 14 or 15 to 1," he replied.

"So you think the DOW will just keep on trucking?"

"Well let me show you this."

He got down a hard brown covered book with lots of text and graphs showing the market performance in large, medium, and small-sized companies from around 1917. It was obvious from all the graphs that stocks had consistently gone up with short dipster periods but by and large he showed how a diversified portfolio in large-cap stocks would have faired well since then. I tried to find large periods of down spikes and found periods of a years that had definite down angles and flat spots but overall the charts showed quite the rise. Without be as smart as I wanted to be. I offered, "So you're saying that being in just one industry such as gold, I am depriving myself of this longer term appreciation that you are showing me and that I would be better off in a mutual fund?"

He said, "Pretty much."

I thought, well gold and gasoline typically have long periods of flat or declining prices but then spike heavily upwards to then repeat itself. I envisioned the rise from $35 to $170's in in the early 70's, the rise from the $170's to the $800's in the late '70's, and I thought about the idea of other countries whose currencies were devalued and where gold saved some people from loosing a goodly portion of their wealth. Further, I thought the reason I was in gold stocks now was because I might be smarter (or stupider) being in an industry that just might be the next bull market. But something happened in the discussion that changed the direction of discourse.

"I always enjoy the wide variety of discussions we have have when I come over gentlemen. Thanks for the bad news on my taxes. I am glad you are more confident than I about our economy because frankly it scares me. See ya."

Clint H

(04/09/1999; 05:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4496)

Steve H (4495)

Steve H, I enjoyed your post. May I comment on "In real-term dollars it is actually cheaper than in the 70s."

We hear and read the term "In real-term dollars" in a lot of places but it is usually as an end of discussion type use. I wonder what this one would look like if he actually put a dollar figure to the "In real-term dollars."

SteveH

(04/09/1999; 05:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4497)

June gold now...

http://members.home.net/rjgold/archive/1999q2/040899.htm$282.80. Thanks Clint H. Yes, it would be nice to know his definition of of the amount. I left that discussion with the thought that there was something missing that didn't get resolved at the core. It was as though we talked cliches but truth walked by us without paying a visit. I convinced them of nothing and they not of me. Yet, truth is truth and irrespective of the comments, time will reveal all.

Let me see if I understand this CB sets money aside in a separate storage area or vault in London. Commercial bank pays CB money. Commercial bank has set aside gold to repay CB, but sells CB gold to other bank who sells it to brokers, dealers, etc. who in turn invest or speculate. Yet if broker doesn't defaults, then bank 3 defaults, bank 2 defaults but bank 1 doesn't default because they have stash of gold equal to gold deposited in London that didn't leave depository. Bank 1 in string (the commercial that is a partner) would seem to have to bite bad debt and return gold to CB that didn't leave CB London vault. So why didn't commercial bank1 just sell their gold? Seems that somewhere in here someone has to pay gold back except this scheme seems like it would only work in falling price gold market as if price rose, the trade would become unprofitable as the pay back would greater than any gain.
So if the 8000-14,000 tons of gold that has been reported to have been lent out needs to be returned this explanation would then indicate that the commercial bank1 would be left returning all this collateral gold on storage (the 8000-14000 tons, right!) and eating the bad debt from defaulting bank 2, bank3, and broker. Am I missing something or is there a different explanation? Thoughts?

This text is borrowed from:http://members.home.net/rjgold/archive/1999q2/040899.htm

"...When a CB leases gold, it is "swapped" for dollars with a commercial bank, with the CB reciving US dollars in full payment. The actual transaction would be from one metal account in London to another. What separates this from being labeled an outright sale is the distinction that it is gold which must be repaid. No Central Bank lends gold directly to the large bullion houses. These commercial banks make the deal with the bullion houses. But the gold never leaves the vault of the lending CB, nary an ounce. But where indeedy does the gold come from, eh? Yeah, eh��.
Well.......�

Even though the vast majority of a central bank's reserves are in their own vaults, some significant amounts will be on deposit in a gold account in London, or Zurich. The CB swaps its gold for dollars with the commercial bank. This bank may in turn swap the metal with another bank (Mr. Spranz told me there are usually at least three banks involved, but could be several more). Somewhere along the line, the gold is swapped into a bank who also owns physical gold of their own in a Zurich account. This gold is then leased to the kind folks at Goldman Sachs, et al.
Is this new or old gold in the banks account in Zurich? Well, a mixture of both new production and repaid gold loans, but this is the tradable stuff. Now Goldman can go right out and sell that gold and buy bonds if it chooses, but this does not mean they are no longer on the hook to the lending bank. They must pay the gold back to the lender, or a cash payment which is determined by adding the cost of the lease, added to the cost of replacing the gold, so that the lending institution is left with proceeds in the amount of the original deal. Although some folks like to believe that these banks just let all this gold out willy nilly, it is probably safer to believe that these loans are fully collateralized. Although each loan may be structured differently, one must trust in the immutable law of nature which descibes the reluctance of any bank to give up funds without security.
What if the borrower defaults on the loan? The collateral pledged to the lender is seized and consumed in the pay back of the loan. This next point is important: At all steps along the way, right up to the actual industrial consumer actually consumes the stuff, the gold is retrievable. Any wrenches in the works of the deal and the original lender (the CB) can go after the gold and have it returned to their account. The safeguards built into the system favor the big, and they don't come bigger than CBs and the largest and most conservative commercial banks.
By the way, Mr. Spranz explained that only the most trusted and conservative commercial banks can ever borrow the gold from the CB. There is a short list, and if you ain't on it, you gets no gold. He called these banks "partners" in the transaction, and explained that the bulk of the risk is shifted to the couterparty of the deal. This leaves the CB is the strongest seat, which is a throne they are indeedy accustomed to. Any further "swapping" done twixt banks also shifts the risk to the new couterparty.
OK, back to a default, let's say that the gold is gone, and the company who borrowed it is insolvent and unable to pay anything back. This is the bogeyman which seems to frighten TB and some others, but what really happens then? The bank who lent the gold is, how do you say in precise banking terms�� screwed. But the CB is not screwed in the least�. How is this so?
The CB will only "swap" gold with commercial banks on the condition that the physical gold is returned to their own Zurich account. Nothing else will suffice. The borrowing bank MUST have the amount of gold present and ready for repayment at all times. Not an ounce is leant to a commercial bank, who cannot prove they have the gold, segregated and ready, with which to repay the CB. Any gold leant out must therefore be quite distinct and apart from the gold held in reserve to repay the swap. This commercial may swap with that one, and so on down the line until one actually does a lease, but the original couterparty is the original borrowing bank.
This puts the risk very low to the CB itself. Much lower than the risk which is assumed everyday in currency exchanges. There is risk to be had by loaning the gold, but it is way down the line and, in all cases, is less risky than the bread and butter of any international bank: foreign currency transactions. Thus the CB has turned a costly thing to hold into a performing asset and all hail the wisdom and
are happy. So segregated are CB transactional gold holdings and official gold reserves, that the Austrian Mint may not use any of the gold in the Austrian CB's own account in London to mint the Philharmonic coin. Reserves are sacrosanct.
One point in which I had a hard time with was the notion that this leasing does not suppress prices. This was put to me a couple of times, but I rebelled. Only outright sales into the market can be said to have a depressing effect on the market, the claim goes, all the rest is shuffling and bookwork. I am not buying into this, as it defies some basic notions of market realities. Perhaps the CB can make the claim that no additional gold is reaching the market, but perceptions carry strong, and leasing can hardly do anything but suppress prices, if only by fear alone.
So, there are safeguards aplenty built into this house of cards which TB sees as blowing down in the first strong gust. The metal he was so worried about is safe and sound within the CB's vault. Reserves are intact. And all these folk who TB calls scams and frauds have already thoroughly thought through any and all of the catastrophes he may have imagined. It is their job to think it all through, but TB seems to think he is way smarter than all those folks. When I point out he may indeedy be not, he gets angry at me. But I did not make the world so...."

Goldfly

(04/09/1999; 06:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4498)

SteveH- June Gold now 283.00

Looking good....

Steady as she goes helmsman.

GF

Tomcat

(04/09/1999; 06:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4499)

The merchant of mystery

Much attention is given to the short side of the gold market, to unfairness, and to evil dealers of trade. I don't discretit this attention. In fact, I'm one of those who is concerned with this short activity.

How can any student of greed and gold ignore that the bubble engineers would go to such an extreme to build such a golden facelift for the dollar?

But for every short sale their is a buyer. Perhaps, my fellow students, the underlying intention of the short-fellows is to help their partners in crime, the long-fellows. Perhaps the short-fellows are the long fellows.

I am neither versed nor skilled in currency trading. But of y2k I'm founded enough to know that a great international confusion is at the door. It is not that many currencies will be devalued. Many won't even be traded!

The day is coming when the CBs will scream for the return of their gold and blame its absence on someone. Will they be the victims of a crime engineered by themselves? Are they also on the other side of the playing field, with a non CB moniker, buying the gold? In other words, is the short sale a mechanism to transer ownership of the gold to the powers that be.

After the confusion has entered, the sound of the gun and the clashing of the sword will be heard by those holding their worthless currencies. Trust will be in short supply.
But off, afar, someone will be sitting on a safety chest built of gold. When the confusion and distrust is at its peak he will arrive, this savior of the moment. He is the new merchant of stability, the new merchant of trust. He is the gold-backed New Millenium Banker.

So in our quest for the grail of truth. Let us not ignore the merchant of mystery who is preparing for y2k as would a seasoned survivalist. By buying gold, by the ton!

The Stranger

(04/09/1999; 07:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4500)

PPI

Oil prices up 50% in the last 2 months and the government reports .2% PPI increase (flat, ex food and energy) this morning. Somebody has got some explaining to do.

YGM

(04/09/1999; 07:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4501)

USA Gold

Where would one find the info that substantiates the fact
that Carribean Hedge Funds are the largest holder of US
debt? If S. African Gov't debt is held by Hedge funds as per
beestings previous posts then I have to wonder how much
Debt they hold over Aus & Canada. Seems like an ideal
scenario for acquiring leverage to obtain more Gold loans
& Gold sales from these Countries CBs. (Blackmail if you
will ??)----YGM

JCTex

(04/09/1999; 08:03:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4502)

THE STRANGER and the PPI

Surely you do not think that YOUR guvment would lie to you!

YGM

(04/09/1999; 08:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4503)

Tomcat

Somewhere within the mystery lies the answer.
Your scenario is as credible as any IMHO--YGM.

TownCrier

(04/09/1999; 08:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4504)

More Gasoline Price Hikes Predicted

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990409/gasoline_f_1.htmlCrude expected to rise further.

USAGOLD

(04/09/1999; 09:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4505)

Today's Market Report: Gold at Two Week High Recovering from Lows

MARKET UPDATE (4/9/99): Gold, still recovering from its lows and at a two week
high, was again marginally higher this morning as the dollar retreated in early trade. A
Reuters report that Russian President Yeltsin has ordered strategic missiles to be aimed at
NATO countries threw water on the Euro-party in progress over the larger than expected
rate cut there -- .5%. Later reports were sketchy as to whether or not Yeltsin had actually
re-aimed the missiles, but oil responded by moving higher on that news and a report by the
International Energy Agency that world oil stockpiles would be drawn down sharply by the
end of the year. Meanwhile the U.S. Labor Department reported today that producer prices
were up 0.2% in March driven by increases in oil and energy goods.

In London, gold rose briefly on the Yeltsin missile news then settled back. "The rise was
purely on the NATO news. The market is short, oversold and expecting a short-covering
rally at some point,'' said one London dealer. Today is option expiry day on the New York
COMEX and strange things have been known to happen as options expire. We shall see
what the day brings. FWN reports "some" fund selling this morning. All in all, the gold
market remains quiet on the international scene.

The April News & Views will be going out to the current and prospective clientele of
Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD. If you are interested in receiving a free trial
subscription of our newsletter, please go to ORDER(INFO PACKET, ETC.) or contact Marie
at 1-800-869-5115 and we will send it to you.

In Brief..........(4/9/99) Apparently the signed, sealed and delivered agreement between
the IMF and Russia on future loans is not the cinch it was thought to be be a week. Treas.
Sec. Robert Rubin said "The IMF has entered into a preliminary, or tentative, agreement
and there is a lot of work left to do.".......In my view the markets are much more sensitized
to the Russian situation that the mainstream press would allow. Keep an eye on the equity
markets over the next few days.....................Don't look now, but the Japanese stock
market is surging higher as its economy sinks deeper into the tank. Why? Foreign money.
Tons of it pouring into the Nikkei..........................In AP report this morning tells of
wealthy taxpayers puttin their IRS taxes due on credit cards to earn flyer miles. Yes,
Virginia, you can now pay your taxes by calling the IRS and using American Express,
Mastercard, Visa and Discover......What a country!.....................In what remains
probably the most under-reported, un-emphasized developments of the Balkan War, NATO
has stationed 8000 troops in harms way at the Albanian/Kosovar border ostensibly to deal
with the worsening refugee problem. (See London Electronic Telegraph article) This is the
same border where artilley fire was exchanged last night. The combatants according to AP
were "unknown"....................Russia is sending three more war ships to the Balkans
region........The Drudge Report says that Serbia could use chemical warfare against NATO
ground troops if they are used in the region. The American Federation of Scientists
confirms four chemical weapons plants in former Yugoslavia...............In the wave of
interest rates cut sweeping the globe, Hong Kong became the latest participany lowering its
rate a quarter point...........That's it for today. Have a good day and a good weekend, my
fellow goldmeisters.

Goldfly

(04/09/1999; 10:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4506)

June Gold 283.3.......The latest at MRCI

Onlychild.....Nugget101

I love you guys......

BUT YOU CAN'T HAVE MY GOLD!!!!!

GF

Aristotle

(04/09/1999; 11:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4507)

Hey Goldfly, and others, too!

Looks like onlychild has gotten some gold of his own. Congratulations! And same to you, Goldfly (the bard!), and the other metal winners.
I can't believe I forgot to take a shot at today's gold price. I would have guessed ballpark $286. Oh well.

JA--sounds like you've got me pegged, spot on! Thanks for the thoughts.

Interest rates...are falling all over the world, except in the countries who are fighting to keep their currencies alive. The nations' lowered interest rates do not reflect (poorly) on the nature of their currencies as much as it reflects upon their economies being sluggish (Canada, Australia, Euroland, etc.), or else a high-minded attempt at long-term stability.

This all makes sense to me. 2% represents sustainable development, and a fiat currency only has a prayer of avoiding a deflationary collapse (of the money supply) at a low rate. (Thanks go out to Aragorn for the simple demonstration using a friend's autographs as money.)

If the Dollar were As Good as Gold, then why must the Fed offer a Premium incentive for anyone to hold the dollar long-term? To me, there is a HUGE difference between sustainable rates of 1-3 percent, and anything higher than four. The dollar seems to be moving squarely into the realm of the southbound currencies.

It should come as no surprise that the interest rate is nearly always under 2% when charged on Gold currency. Yes, interest rate on Gold currency...THAT is what it is. Don't be confused by the terms "lease rate" and "leased Gold." The Big Players don't want to use terms that would tip you off that you are being gipped using paper money while they use Gold money. They would have you think that Gold was something else...say, raw material for jewelry. Ha!

We have an temporary money supply that can be measured as M1, M2, etc.,which is useful in monitoring the effects of the fractional reserve lending devices.

Similarly (but superior!) there is a real, permanent money supply (Gold) that can be measured, lent, and borrowed. Should we think of the Gold supply as G1, G2, etc to monitor how much Gold is being traded above and beyond the Base Permanent Supply? You can be sure the Big Players know exactly what amount is real and what amount has been temporarily created through fractional-type lending. Or rather, lending in name, but not in body. As a borrower, you think you have the Gold (on paper), but it never leaves the lender's vaults.

Don't worry about a dollar-supply deflation ( and its effect of depressing prices including Gold.) They can counter that with simple printing schemes and whatnot. Worry instead about the coming Gold-supply deflation. When the books are squared (Euroland has ceased new Gold lending), many will find that much of what was thought to be a Gold "overhang" will go POOF! It will appear to be the rarest thing on Earth...which is kinda funny when you think about it, because IT IS!

I hope this helps propel all of our sharp minds into a good weekend of thought. Just don't let your steaks and hamburgers burn on the grill as you ponder such a brave new world that holds a proper perception of Gold!

Get you some. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/09/1999; 11:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4508)

Dollar lower at US noon after erratic morning moves

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990409/y5.htmlRussia rattles sabres. Currency traders want to go into this weekend without a stocked "warchest"

onlychild

(04/09/1999; 12:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4509)

Aristotle

I find that I must disagree with your thought on Gold being the rarest thing on earth. It would seem to me that the rarest comodity on this planet is good sense!
C'mon $282.50

ss of nep

(04/09/1999; 12:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4510)

More Conspiracy Theory

Chris / Christine, pass me the Thorazine .....

This Conspiracy stuff is driving me up the wall.

Even, as others have said, if this stuff is half true,
then there is reason to go nuts ......

http://members.tripod.com/watcher2k/order1.html

The Conspirators Hierarchy - Committee of 300

corelates too well with the Protocols of Zion, which

appears to have been published first.

So, read at the above URL.

Comments on this stuff are desired.

What is true ?

I do not actually believe that the truth is possible to find.

If there is a conspiracy then if it has been going on for a
couple of centuries then the trail to the perpetrator(s) is
more than likely never to be uncovered.

or

Is it possible that THEIR game plan is so near completion
that THEY no longer need to hide it ?

Confuse the populations,
destroy the structure of the family / society,
trash the enconomies,
destroy the currencies,
destabilize international relations,
de-populate,
abolish private ownership / confiscate whats left over.

Take a close look at the ends of your arms and
ensure there are strong hands there.

Ask yourselves,

how will we survive under FASCISM

coming soon to a neighbourhood near you !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

USAGOLD

(04/09/1999; 13:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4511)

YGM...FYI...

My source is the most recent issue of the Treasury Bulletin, December, 1998:

U.S. Liabilities to Foreigners

Carribean Banking Centers......$455,258,000,000
United Kingdom.................$228,494,000,000
All other Europe...............$276,232,000,000
Japan..........................$153,686,000,000
All other Asia.................$136,000,000,000
All other countries............$188,989,000,000

Total........................$1,438,715,000,000

Carribean Banking Centers includes Bahamas, Bermuda, British West Indies, Netherlands Antilles and Panama

USAGOLD

(04/09/1999; 13:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4512)

YGM...Please Note:

Those are Caribbean Banking Centers not Caribbean Hedge Funds.

USAGOLD

(04/09/1999; 13:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4513)

Also...

Sorry for getting the spelling wrong on "Caribbean".

TownCrier

(04/09/1999; 13:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4514)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Lifted by Worries About Russia and Kosovo

New York-April 9-FWN--The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)
finished the session firmer here today, with short
covering cited in both platinum and palladium. Also, sources
said, there were worries about the future of Russian
shipments if the country should become more involved in the
Kosovo crisis, as was suggested by some of the initial
reports that came out of Russia today.
These Russian worries also lent a hand to gold and
silver prices, with dealers wanting to limit their short
positions ahead of the weekend, sources said.
Earlier today, there were reports saying Russian
President Boris Yeltsin would not allow NATO ground troops
to enter Yugoslavia unanswered. Also, Russian parliamentary
speaker Gennady Seleznyov had reportedly said Yeltsin had
threatened to retarget Russian missiles at NATO countries
involved in the air campaign.
Since, however, Moscow has denied the missile report.
Also, White House officials have said Russia has offered
them assurance that it will not become militarily involved
in the Kosovo crisis.
Gold and silver were also lifted by what one source
referred to as Russian "tough talk." Many players did not
want to go home for the weekend short due to the
uncertainty. Thus, they decided to cover their positions, he
explained.
June gold added 70 cents to $283.40, while May silver
added 4.5 cents to $4.93.
"Initially overnight, gold was bid up and silver was
firmer, along with the PGMs, on the Russian tough talk,"
said the trader.
During the course of the day, gold and silver did dip
from time to time, however.
"There seemed to be some good fund selling in the gold
that led us down to a $281.30 low (basis June)," he said.
"We had some good trade and fund selling in the silver
that took us down below the $4.88 level (Thursday's low in
the May contract) a couple of times. I thought once we were
below it the second time, we might crack. But again, some
folks did not want to stay short. If it wasn't for that, we
might be a lot lower."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

ss of nep

(04/09/1999; 13:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4515)

USAGOLD - Msg ID # 4511

What is the relationship amoungst those
owning the US DEBT ...

According to Msg Id # 4511

UK holds 228 B
Carribean banking Interests 455 B

now

Carribean banking Interests

MINUS the Panama

MINUS Dutch Antilles

= UK

Thinking outside the BOX

Sooooooo,

Who is it that won the

War Of In(dependents)

Pun intended

Who depends upon whom ?

Aristotle

(04/09/1999; 14:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4516)

"owning the US DEBT" . . . .BUZZZZZZZ "Oh, so sorry! Next contestant please..."

"Be sure to watch that board, folks--'owning the US DEBT' can't be done, as proven on previous shows. They CAN own your BUTT, though; that is, if you don't assert your claim as a sovereign individual. Be sure to hold your liquid wealth as Gold. Thanks for playing!"

"Tune in NEXT TIME as Aristotle gets told 'Mind your own damn business."

...just having some fun...pay no mind to the hunched over man dragging the heavy sacks... (That would be me.) ---Aristotle

ss of nep

(04/09/1999; 14:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4517)

USAGOLD - Msg ID # 4511 -- Continuation

Now I was of the opinion that JAPAN & CHINA held the
bulk of the US $ DEBT.

My info for that point of view is approx. 2 years old.

So, either the source of that info was wrong

or

Japan & China have been dumping ????????????

There has been a lot of talk over the past 2 weeks or so
of Japan and China wanting to or actually converting
reserves of US $ DEBT to EURO's and/or GOLD

So,
the current question becomes

Does anybody out there have data on the US $ DEBT
held by Japan & China obout 2 years ago ??????

SteveH

(04/09/1999; 14:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4518)

no subject

No message...oh...I forgot...

This was posted in retort to RJ's post below about Leasing...

Date: Fri Apr 09 1999 14:04
sam (RJ and leasing -- wrong wrong wrong.) ID#28882:
Copyright � 1999 sam/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I just got off the phone with a senior trader at a large bullion bank. I went through some of RJ's latest contentions with him. ( See http://members.home.net/rjgold/archive/1999q2/040899.htm )

In particular:

"No Central Bank lends gold directly to the large bullion houses."

Totally untrue. My friendly dealer himself borrows gold directly from a CBs.

"But the gold never leaves the vault of the lending CB, nary an ounce."

Totally untrue.

"Even though the vast majority of a central bank's reserves are in their own vaults, some significant amounts will be on deposit in a gold account in London, or Zurich."

Not true. Almost one quarter of all CB gold is held at the NY Fed; most of this is owned by European CBs and is readily available for leasing. Please refer to figure 32 in the 1998 GMFS Gold Book.

"The CB will only "swap" gold with commercial banks on the condition that the physical gold is returned to their own Zurich account. Nothing else will suffice. The borrowing bank MUST have the amount of gold present and ready for repayment at all times."

Untrue

Aristotle

(04/09/1999; 14:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4519)

ss of nep--I'll see what I can dredge up for you from the 'net

but don't hold your breath...

YGM

(04/09/1999; 14:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4520)

USA GOLD

Thanks for the info and I stand corrected Banks not Funds

Aristotle

(04/09/1999; 15:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4521)

Grrrrrrrrrr....

Wish you hadn't posted that, Steve. I sure sleep better at night under the pretense that the story as conveyed by RJ is close to the actual workings of the machine.

If it is completely wrong, then I really can't come to easy terms with this world I'm living in. The potential Gold-deflation (that I tried to describe earlier) would become so enormous and devastating that I had better be getting a safe FOR my safe, and hire a security team. It won't be pretty when the knot fails and the pins shear off.

So far, we've got one postion vs. another. I tend to fall in RJ's camp. If the Gold has left the vault, to report otherwise is an outright fraud. I've got some other reasons, but at the moment, my agitation by these new developments has placed me decidedly off-balance. Maybe we can explore this deeper throughout the course of the weekend. Anyone else care to toss something on the table? ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/09/1999; 15:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4522)

Hear ye! Hear ye!

The target has finally been revealed...
"June gold settled up 70c at $283.40 per ounce today"

And the closest arrows have found their mark...

$282.50 onlychild (4/3/99; 1:37)
$283.30 Goldfly (4/3/99; 23:13)
$283.65 nugget101 (4/5/99; 14:40)
$283.90 canamami (4/5/99; 15:50)

Methinks the outcome is clear, but we await word from the King.
Perhaps he found the Carnival ale to his liking, and has thus been delayed in the third tent from the right?

Tomcat

(04/09/1999; 15:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4523)

Old Words of Wisdom From Alan

This is from my internet notes. I'm sure it is nothing new for the verterans of the table. Nevertheless, I felt it is worth posting because each time I read it, I increase my committment to gold and to the philosophy of financial integrity that is expressed by the members of the table.

"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit.... In the absence of the
gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holdings illegal, as was done in the case of gold.... The financial policy of the welfare state requires
that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.... [This] is the shabby secret of the welfare statist's tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."

Alan Greenspan in an article he wrote in 1966

Tomcat

(04/09/1999; 16:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4524)

JA, Regarding the FED and whether it has been audited.

Great response! You are more thorough than I, sir.

You said: "It now appears a more correct statement on my part would have been an "through independent audit of the Federal Reserve Bank" has never taken place."

I agree. BTW, are government agencies independently audited?

In any case, JA, we are a tad closer to the truth. Thank you.

Aristotle

(04/09/1999; 16:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4525)

Thanks for the refresher, Tomcat.

Good words with which to enter the weekend.

ss of nep

(04/09/1999; 16:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4526)

RE: A : Msg ID:4515

Pun intended
however
No overall insult intended,
I do not insult, everyone has something to teach me.

I hope your sack is filled with gold and not too heavy
for you to endure.

Now what was that song ?

BACK IN THE USSR

Who is driving the war around Kosovo ? ( rhetoric)

The US( Klintner ) ( NOT the people !) and the UK ( NOT the people !) !!!

All other NATO entities do not do other than what
they are TOLD to do.

Now then, Klintner has himself indicated that
by the time a politician gets into the seat he/she
is aware that he/she is a puppet.
( sorry I don't know verbatim statement )

So, who is pulling the puppet strings ????

Throughout history, those sitting on the THRONES
of Europe have had their aristocracy sanctioned by
the VATICAN !!! ( or there was WAR )

NOW, the THRONES of Europe today that have any
Secular power are those of the so called Black Nobility,
the UK and the Hapsbergers ... .

Now, throughout the demise of all FIAT currency
STATES since the collapse of the Roman Empire

who/what has retained their/its wealth ? ( rhetorical )

ANSWER: The VATICAN.

? The VATICAN and a minimum of 1500 years of
collecting the GOLD, the weath of nations gathered
in the form of tithes, and the price of commintting
that which THEY define as sin ( you CAN buy allowance
to sin )

So, throughout disscussions on gold there is next to no
talk on this particular infleunce.

The Vatican claims that its wealth belongs solely to God and that anyone who would pronounce any claim to it is anathema, however, the purposes to which this wealth has been put/used throughout history are of such a sordid sort that it is hard to believe that they have have anything to do with anything Godly.

And so, the question remains

Who's Zoom'in Who

Oh, by the way THEY know who I am
and you can too, just by looking up
old posts. ( Prozac please )

HopeingII

(04/09/1999; 16:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4527)

ss of nep

In an article over at the gold-eagle site written july 14 1997
by "Oracle", he claims Japan was holding "approximately"
300 Billion U.S. Treasury debt. If true and Japan is now
holding 153.6 Billion it would appear they have dumped
almost 50 %. Didn't find anything on China's holdings.

USAGOLD

(04/09/1999; 17:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4528)

Here's to the Winners.......

All right....All Right...Let's cool it with the trumpets. I appreciate the enthusiasm but please. Do we have to go through this everytime we have a contest? ....Ahhhhh blessed peace and quiet. Thank you.

Now, Goldfly, you are certainly the well-laden knight. One for the Fifth Horseman entry and now the glittering gold for getting sooooooo close on the June contract today. I am surprised. You missed it by ten cents. You need to work on that...............

Marie....To the vaults. Find this man his metal...Drat. I hate giving up this stuff. I know. I know, Marie, I'm supposed to I sound happy about this. Believe me, I'm trying.

Now Sir onlychild, my good friend and fellow knight. You have a good eye and good instincts, kind sir. You now have some gold coming your way...To the ramparts, the raiders draw nigh.........all the chiefs are in disarray.

Marie, gold to Sir onlychild. Please. Off with it before I change my mind.

To all thanks for the great weekend. I had a good time, too. I thought that was the best contest we've had so far. All are to be congratulated.

To the winners...Lift up your glasses.

And to all, we'll do it again soon.

OK. Now... with those infernal trumpets! Let the evening begin.......I go to supervise the Treasury debit..uggggggh!

My thanks for TownCrier for filling in for me.

Peter Asher

(04/09/1999; 17:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4529)

ss of nep re-#4510, your link

http://members.tripod.com/watcher2k/order1.htmlYou have opened up THE can of worms with this URL! Much of what is claimed by the writer has, and is, coming to pass. Much of it fortunately is known by many people and groups. The situation with the schools and drugs is being fought vigorously. We contribute what little we can to one of those groups that has, I believe, a few hundred people who have singularly, as individuals, each contributed more that the total GATA defense fund. Even the most secretive conspiracy is still only a group of people. Their efforts can be challenged by other groups of people.

Opt out of the system that brainwashes the masses at every opportunity. Especially the public school system. Just yesterday the Oregon legislature passed a new charter school bill. The pet argument against it was that only the elite will be able to afford the time to be involved in these schools and everyone else will be 'denied' them. Not true of course, but it's saying (If I can't have her, no one can) The Governor will probably veto on the grounds that "It takes pressure away from doing something about all the schools" That argument has been used around the country for decades to stop people from being involved with their children's education. This is, of course, all BS propaganda from the conspiracy folks, but they are not omnipotent.

In 1969, there was no Internet, we the thinking people have more power than ever before. Maybe that means 'They' will make a move on the freedom of the Web. So what. We do not live in a world
ruled by the successors of Hitler and Stalin, which is not to say they aren't trying.

George Lucas, from an interview in the May issue of Wired magazine Q "Have you ever been tempted by the dark side" A." Everyone has a dark side within, so there is a constant struggle to do the right thing. The good side is compassion and caring about other people, the dark side is greed and self-centeredness." � May the Force be with us!

Tomcat

(04/09/1999; 19:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4530)

Aristotle

Sir, could you expand part of of your post of today to C=Goldfly. I am not questioning it's veracity, I am trying to understand it. I don't have a good handle on the meaning of: dollar-supply deflation, gold-supply deflation, overhang, etc.

You wrote: "Don't worry about a dollar-supply deflation (and its effect of depressing prices including Gold.) They can counter that with simple printing schemes and whatnot. Worry instead about the coming Gold-supply deflation. When the books are squared (Euroland has ceased new Gold lending), many will find that much of what was thought to be a Gold "overhang" will go POOF! It will appear to be the rarest thing on Earth...which is kinda funny when you think about it, because IT IS!"

Goldfly

(04/09/1999; 20:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4531)

Squire!! Fetch me that arrow. It's shaft cannot be true!

Lord Michael, I thank you. Indeed, the true mark did elude me. While I inspect the timber of mine arrow, I see that it has in it, no warp.

I assert, (If you Sire will allow me to indulge in a further dissertation on the dark art of conspiracy: which hath, at this table, already crossed the threshold of absurdity): that Gandalf the White did purvey unto me a mixture labeled STOMP POWDER, which was not of a pure state. This would account for the mysterious rise at the very late stage of the contest

Indeed, I was compelled to ROOT DOWN the price of the June Contract. Not being of an indecisive nature, I found such vacillation in myself to be most disagreeable. ('Twould also cause me to suspect the motives of any person who might aim their dart below the current mark of our realms' most splendid and agreeable metal.) Whilst I did deride those who had set their mark high, I now understand: You were at all times cheering on our Golden Friend!

But the end did come out well. Gandalf, all is forgiven, you may come out from behind the tapestry there. In the future, please take more care in the execution of your science. Perhaps there were other unseen hands who did adulterate the homogeneity of your work.

I remain Sire, your Troubadour, Goldfly

Goldfly

(04/09/1999; 20:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4532)

Squire!! Fetch me that arrow. It's shaft cannot be true!

Lord Michael, I thank you. Indeed, the true mark did elude me. While I inspect the timber of mine arrow, I see that it has in it, no warp.

I assert, (If you Sire will allow me to indulge in a further dissertation on the dark art of conspiracy: which hath, at this table, already crossed the threshold of absurdity): that Gandalf the White did purvey unto me a mixture labeled STOMP POWDER, which was not of a pure state. This would account for the mysterious rise at the very late stage of the contest

Indeed, I was compelled to ROOT DOWN the price of the June Contract. Not being of an indecisive nature, I found such vacillation in myself to be most disagreeable. ('Twould also cause me to suspect the motives of any person who might aim their dart below the current mark of our realms' most splendid and agreeable metal.) Whilst I did deride those who had set their mark high, I now understand: You were at all times cheering on our Golden Friend!

But the end did come out well. Gandalf, all is forgiven, you may come out from behind the tapestry there. In the future, please take more care in the execution of your science. Perhaps there were other *unseen hands* who did adulterate the homogeneity of your work.

I remain Sire, your Troubadour, Goldfly

Goldfly

(04/09/1999; 20:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4533)

Squire!! Fetch me my spectacles!

I'm begining to see two of everything!

(Perhaps I shall lay off the grog...)

GF

Gandalf the White

(04/09/1999; 21:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4534)

Goldfly's intoxication with FREE Gold !

Goldfly, You done gone and caught a good dose of Goldfever !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/09/1999; 21:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4535)

Antidote for STOMP POWDER is a "built-in" addition !

Not to worry, Goldfly, the delayed antidote will become active in three days ! It shall have a treble effect of the down draft and a much longer lasting length of action. LOOK OUT ABOVE !!! LAST CALL for "cheap" Gold !!! GET IT NOW.
<;-)

beesting

(04/09/1999; 21:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4536)

Bits and Pieces of Info.

USAGOLD,you're information has been so accurate to this point,that I had to hit refresh on my computor to make sure before I posted.
On your 4511 post name-ing the Caribbean Banking Centers there was one small group of islands omitted; The Cayman Islands, according to a recent article in the London Times(about 2 weeks ago) Grand Cayman, largest island in the group,is the WORLDS fifth largest financial center.
Rankings not necessarily in order: New York*London*Tokyo*Hong Kong* and Grand Cayman.

Lets look at a map.
The Cayman Islands are located off the west coast of Cuba, many miles from Mexico, not to many miles from Cuba.
Now, look at the map a little closer'see Guantanamo thats where the U.S. Navy is located.
Do you think the Cayman Islands pays for protection?
U.S. taxpayers pay for some weird stuff. Got Gold??........beesting

onlychild

(04/09/1999; 22:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4537)

2001

I discovered something interesting while playing with my old VHS video camera. when I advanced the date to 2000 it did just fine. I was impressed that a ten year old camera would be Y2K compliant......NOT SO FAST BUCKAROO! When I advanced the date another year I found myself at 1901. So this whole thing may not unfold on 1-1-00, it may in fact return on 1-1-01! Does anyone have any input on this? Either way I have 5G protection: Gold, Guns, groceries, generator, gasoline.

Oregon Geezer

(04/10/1999; 07:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4538)

onlychild re: video camera and date

Try setting your video camera to the year 1972. The days and dates should work out just fine. As long as you know that "1972" is really 2000, who cares? This tip came from someone who set his VCR to 1972.
The Oregon Geezer

Oregon Geezer

(04/10/1999; 08:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4539)

The old mouse in the corner

I've been lurking, listening and learning is this site like an aged mouse in the corner of a room full of giants. Though most of the arcane language goes way over my head, I have learned and understood some things.

About 10 years ago I retired from the school biz and life has been pretty good for this old geezer. I threw off the last shackle when I sold my last piece of rental property a month or so ago. I did this in advance of Y2K and the possibility of being stuck with an empty condo and a mortgage. Let the money lenders find someone else. As soon as possible I sent a few thousand bucks to CPM and, on Michael's advice, bought some 1/5 oz. pre-1933 uncirculated coins. I had four reasons: 1. Preservation of part of my assets, 2. No reporting requirements, 3. Confiscation is remote given the history of 1933, and, 4. Ease of use of small coins in buying and barter.

I'm small potatoes in this gold business, there may be others out there who are in the same boat and might find something here of interest. You heavy hitters may find this all quite dull. I'm newly minted in this gold business (sorry 'bout the pun) as I was burned several years ago. On the advice of a certified financial planner I invested in gold stocks and limited partnership real estate. As these stocks headed for the basement, I bailed out at a great loss as soon as I saw the handwriting on the wall. I would have been better off putting my bucks in a passbook savings account. Live and learn. If I could find that damned planner, I'd introduce him to my Kimber model 1911 .45 cal. ACP.

Next year I'll get hosed by the IRS over capital gains taxes and a huge chunk of my profits will be dragged kicking and screaming inside the Beltway where they will be put to work studying the "Effects of the Non-use of Deodorants in the Design of Indoor Theaters" or somesuch. My CPA will very soon calculate the expected taxes and anything left over will go back into gold.

The gumment appears to oppose the private ownership of gold and at the same time tries to appease us when it comes to Y2K --- don't panic, don't "hoard" (aka stockpile), and for sure trust us. Yeah, right. This is the same gumment that cannot account for $3.4 billion of spending and equipment according to the General Accounting Office as reported in the "Washington Times" a week or so ago. I would not believe or trust that bunch of bandits if my life depended upon it and it does. Thank you very much, but I'll take care of myself and my wife. I've been working and planning for the past year and new we are pretty much self-sufficient --- food, funds, firearms, medical supplies, etc. --- despite the fact that we life in a suburb.

I want to thank all of you for your vast knowledge and especially the advice, knowledge and support of M.K. His "ABCs" book is a must read and a treasure of information and advice.

Having spoken, the Oregon Geezer falls silent.

Oregon Geezer

(04/10/1999; 08:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4540)

The old mouse in the corner

Oregon Geezer

(04/10/1999; 08:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4541)

The old mouse in the corner

(04/10/1999; 08:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4542)

Hey Bob

Hello Bob Sturgeon. I saw you snuck a post in there. Good to see you here, you're wisdom is invaluable.

All - Bob is a good friend of mine that happens to be a genuine cotton-picker from the left coast. I've been chatting with Bob for several years and we've had plenty of discussions about gold, etc. Welcome to the forum Bob and I hope we see more of you.

ET

(04/10/1999; 08:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4543)

USAGOLD

Hey MK - an excellent observation.

You wrote;

'4. In other words, much of the money supply should be seen as hot money coming from Fed
monetization of Treasury debt unable to find an external market and has nowhere to go now but into
higher prices on goods, like oil, like gold. If I see this, others more astute than I see it as well.'

Yes, what else can they do but monetize this debt? We are now buying our own debt. Looks like the end of the game is nearly here.

ET

(04/10/1999; 09:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4544)

Peter

Hey Peter - you wrote;

'Now moving on to that horrendous expansion of the money supply you mentioned. Where is it
going? It has to get lent into existence. I'm going to try to answer my own question for a start..I
haven't a clue as to how much of the gross market 'worth' is being carried by Margin credit. Could
this account for a lot of this dollar flood. Certainly as the market rises that quantity expands with it.

This could be the big time bomb that blows the economy out of the water. If (when) stock prices fall
dramatically, people who invested on margin will not lose some of their savings, they will be wiped
out. Furthermore, if it comes down fast enough, even the margin lenders will be hit.

My conclusion is, if A.G. and the Gang can't keep Humpty Stock Market on the wall, all else pales
by comparison. But hey, I'm not an economic expert, so maybe I've got it all wrong here. What do
the rest of you guys think?'

Yes, this would seem to be the case. All this money is looking for a home and the stock market appears to be the investment of choice. Japan's stock market is attracting a lot of this money also. I used to subscribe to Kurt Richebacher's newsletter and one thing among many others I learned was to watch the flow of funds. If the new money being created is not flowing into US debt instruments any longer than it will show up somewhere else. Equities and commodities seem to be being bid up with the Fed soaking up the rest through monetization. I guess the American taxpayer is the lender of last resort. You are right; if the flow of funds stops seeking equities, then all that is left is monetization and the ensuing collapse of the dollar. This indeed appears to be the Fed's last stand.

ET

Goldfly

(04/10/1999; 09:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4545)

Hey ET, some more on "Why Kosovo?"

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_doggett/19990409_xcjdo_what_natos.shtmlThe final paragraphs of an editorial at WorldNetDaily

.........

One final question. Have you noticed how
pro-war Democrats have suddenly become?

They didn't want to go to war when Saddam
Hussein invaded Iraq. [GOLDFLY NOTE: uh, I guess
he means Iran] They didn't want to help
free the sovereign nation of Kuwait. They did
nothing when more than 1,000,000 Africans
were killed in civil wars in Rwanda, Burundi,
Zaire, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Why are they
hell bent to intervene in a dirty little civil war
between the KLA and Milosevic that had only
killed 2,000? What's their real goal?

Too many wolves are running around in
sheep's coats for me to believe anything that
NATO says. Something else is going on, and it
has nothing to do with humanitarianism.

David Linkley

(04/10/1999; 11:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4546)

Reuters(4/10/99) Gold, Oil Up on Yeltsin War Remarks

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19990410/bs/commodities_136.html``Otherwise there will be a European war for sure and possibly a world war,'' Yeltsin said.

Peter Asher

(04/10/1999; 14:31:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4547)

ET and All

ET: thanks for the response. -- I'm going to indulge in further elaboration of this particular phenomenon, since it appears to me to be the lynch pin of the whole paper asset quagmire in which we are currently wallowing.

Stocks are different from bonds and savings in that they carry no obligation for anyone to repay anything in particular to the stockholder. While the possibility of default or bank failure is always present, the holder of a bond or CD has an entitlement to his original principle. The stockholder, on the other hand, only has title to 'a piece of the action'. The threat to the survival of the economy in the event of a major market setback is that most stockholders perceive their investment to be similar to a bond or CD as regards their equity.

There are several ramifications to this fact, but the one I am focused on is that the major portion of the savings of the investing public represents no DEBT, by anyone, to anyone!

So here is this massive sum of 'savings' which has passed through the market and which has been spent. Along the way, it has picked up the addition of all the margin loan funds, which also were converted into consumption or other assets. Technically, all of this outflow is one-way and gone, since both the invested funds and the margin money are totally dependent for their replacement on new funds, which would have to be earned and invested by new stock purchasers. Theoretically, the whole quantity could be nulled. The only part that would even be in default would be the unrecovered margin money.

It's the potential magnitude of this possible event that keeps me hammering away at it.

Peter Asher

(04/10/1999; 14:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4548)

Market Anecdote #1

The following depicts one of the many factors which would make a market crash so devastating.

SALEM, Ore. (AP) -- Thanks largely to a hot stock market,
some veteran Oregon teachers and other public employees
are enjoying pension checks that are larger then the salaries
they got while working. Under the current Money Match program, employers must
match employees' retirement accounts dollar for dollar. The
soaring stock market, where retiree funds are invested, has
made retirements expensive for employers

Any pension plan which has been totally managed by the above strategy has the potential to be reduced down to nothing. Note also that it would be desirable to the former employers for such an event to occur.

TownCrier

(04/10/1999; 15:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4549)

U.S. YIELD CURVE -- Rubbing up against rich levels

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990409/5t.htmlVirtually nonexistent chance that the Federal Reserve will lower the current 4.75 percent federal funds rate any time soon, 2-yr Treasuries said to be expensive

TownCrier

(04/10/1999; 15:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4550)

US poised to test air traffic control for Y2K bug

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990410/bh.htmlKeep your eyes on the Denver skies

TownCrier

(04/10/1999; 15:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4551)

Euro capital market a "solid choice"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990410/bn.htmlEuro said to be performing as expected, recent dollar-strength surprising

Peter Asher

(04/10/1999; 16:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4552)

A Letter From Next Summer

Dear Harry:

Just wanted to send a 'thank you' note for the help you gave us in achieving our dream home at the beach. The summer weather has been fantastic out here. It's hard to believe that in five months we'll be hunkered down waiting for the stroke of midnight to tell us if the fears about Y2K will come to pass. Of course, owning the home free and clear makes the millennium a lot less threatening.

You know Harry, if it hadn't been for you, we'd've been heavily mortgaged owning this place. We only had enough for the lot when we put the money into that stock three years ago. That's why we're so grateful to you for coming along and paying us two and a half times as much for it. I'm sorry to hear that it's back down to where it was when we purchased it. Gee, I sure hope you didn't buy on margin.

Well, Harry, you still have two arms and two legs and you still have your job, don't you? We haven't been following the domestic news lately. We sold the rest of our stocks and put everything into gold. Then when that tripled we rolled it over into those new Chinese industrial investment bonds. They pay great interest and are guaranteed by a government with a gold-backed currency and the largest reserves of untapped natural resources in the world. Great opportunities out there Harry. Maybe you can try again, that's the American way!

Don't you just love this country!

Sincerely, your friend, Joe.

Copyright 4/10/99 by Peter Asher

Robert Sturgeon

(04/10/1999; 18:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4553)

Who, me?

ET-
Thanks for the compliments, but I don't know that I have much to add here. I am certainly an advocate of the gold standard. I just don't see it happening anytime soon. I hate to burst everyone's bubble, but I don't see gold going anywhere but down- unless, of course, we have some kind of political/economic/military catastrophe.

A wise man of my acquaintance owns quite a bit of gold, and he hopes it never becomes very valuable.

SteveH

(04/10/1999; 18:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4554)

all from GATA

"AND ON THURSDAY APRIL 8, BILL MURPHY (AS MIDAS) FOLLOWED UP WITH:

One of the brightest minds I know that is associated with the gold
industry ( in this case, not my former colleague, Frank Veneroso )
told me this morning that his numbers show that there are 10,000
tonnes of shorts out there right now when you add up the totals from
the producer forward sales, OTC participant short sellers, trend
following Comex shorts, gold borrowing shorts and writers of gold
calls.

10,000 tonnes of gold is almost 4 times that of the 1998 mine supply
and is about 1/3 of all the gold reserves in the central banks. My
former associate, Frank Veneroso, who wrote the 1998 Gold Book Annual
came up with an 8,000 tonne number about two years ago. As Frank
thinks there is a larger natural supply/demand deficit than almost
anyone else, it is most likely that he also thinks a 10,000 tonne
number is reasonable right now."

Seems to support my claim that gold should get close to $300 in next week or so (said it would be two or three weeks about two weeks ago). Still expecting.

USAGOLD

(04/10/1999; 19:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4555)

Gold Leasing and Greg Norman....

Royal Oak is bankrupt. It owes $5 million in gold to Bank of Nova Scotia. Bank of Nova Scotia, in turn, owes $5 million in gold to some un-named central bank. Here's our chance to understand the gold leasing game. Any ideas what happens next? Let's hear the possibilities from this august table. By the way, I've got Greg Norman in the green jacket sweepstakes. Why? The man can putt as demonstrated on #12 today. Also, he's got that look in his eyes.

Aristotle

(04/11/1999; 01:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4556)

A Universal Truth

I had to spend the day doing Gold and economics research and was particularly struck by the a disturbingly consistent quality shared by all those whom reside in the anti-gold camp. In an attempt to put my observations and feelings into words, I arrived at this universal truth:

The man that argues against Gold has as little of what is called "human" about him as does the computer (or page) that gives 'voice' to his thoughts.

Get human...get Gold. You'll live better for it. ---Aristotle

Oregon Geezer

(04/11/1999; 01:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4557)

Apology to all

(The Geezer attempts to wipe egg off his face)
Boy howdy, am I ever sorry about the multiple postings of my message. This is what happens when an idiot (me) gets his mitts on a computer.

Y2K tip: If you have the gold and I have the gun, I'll have both the gold and the gun. Be prepared.

SteveH

(04/11/1999; 07:52:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4558)

Derivative exposure from...

http://www.geocities.com/~CyclePro/Charts/SP500-Articles/DerivExpo.htmThis is a quote from the above site for the full text click to the above:

The following table demonstrates the breakdown by category of risk exposure for the 8 banks with the highest derivative positions held. The columns have the following meanings: Assets is the total assets of each bank, Derivs is the total derivative exposure (all expirations), One Year is the total derivative exposure that expires in less than one year, Equity is the banks exposure to the stock markets, and 30% Corr is the amount of derivative loss if the stock markets suffer a 30% correction within one year.

Bank Assets Derivs One Yr Equity 30% Corr
Chase 367B 8,299B 3,635B 7.8B -2.3B
JPMorgan 281B 7,447B 2,487B 53.9B -16.2B
Citicorp 331B 3,299B 2,067B 13.8B -4.1B
NationsBk 308B 2,325B 331B 8.5B -2.5B
Bk Trust 172B 2,203B 963B 17.8B -5.3B
Bk Amer 264B 1,709B 781B 0.4B -0.1B
1st Chicago 120B 1,199B 469B 4.5B -1.3B
Bk of NY 63B 264B 19B n/a n/a

One you can see, if Chase were to suffer a 10% loss in the derivative exposure which expires in less than one year, their entire asset base would be wiped out. For JPMorgan it would only take an 11% loss to wipe out their asset base.

SteveH

(04/11/1999; 08:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4559)

Rhody on gold leasing (awesome info)

Here is yet another but more traditionally understood view of leasing. Note Rhody believes this year will be the year of settlement. So we have disscussion of rules and timeline for fallout. I don't think many of us argue with the logic. The problem has always been when and what the trigger would be. Seldom does an airplane crash due to just one problem. It is usually two or more unrelated problems whose hidden relationship only becomes apparent after a crash. So too are gold pilots turning off and ignoring alarms in many areas. This can be seen now. What can't be seen is the trigger that joins the separate problems into the crash-causing event.

"Co-pilot, turn off that damned alarm. Let's start our takeoff roll. Tower this is flight gold, ready for taxi...."

Tower: "Flight gold, taxi to runway 282, you are cleared for takeoff, make your departure heading Y2K, stay at or below 300."

Here's Rhody...

Date: Sun Apr 11 1999 07:01
rhody (@ Summicron: Sorry to be so slow replying, but my server) ID#411440:
Copyright � 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
was down. Gold and silver leases are payable in gold and silver
and so is the interest. That is, if you borrow 100 oz from a
CB ( through the intermediary of a bullion bank ) then you would
owe the 100 oz back plus 1.46 oz of gold at the end of a year
at present rates. When gold is borrowed, it is sold, and the
cash used to buy T-bills for the period of the lease. If you
borrow gold for one month, then it costs .67% gold interest and
a T-bill can be purchased earning 4.93% with the proceeds.
The difference between the gold interest and the T-bill rate
represents the profit in what is called the "gold carry trade".
Additional profit is usually available when the gold is repurchased on the spot market for return to the CB, as the repurchase price has beenn
lower on average for the past 18 years. Hence the gold carry is
a constant short sell on the gold market.

See "sam"'s post at 16:24 yesterday for more. Sam has
seen more of these leases than I have. Generally the interest
is in metal, not paper. Why would a CB want paper? Since they
print the stuff, they know what its true value is. Paper shrinks,
while gold is gold. Gold is money. Paper is currency. If you
borrow money, then money must be returned.

I would estimate the present leasing volume at 1000 to 1200
tonnes per year. Very little of this gold is being returned.
The borrowers merely roll over the lease. At the moment, this
must mean that 30 to 140 tonnes of present annual gold production
is being consumed just to float existing gold loans. If lease
rates were to go to just 10%, then we are talking 300 to 1400
tonnes of gold. But total annual production is only 2550 tonnes
with total consumption at 4000 plus tonnes. If the gold overhang
can't be covered in the open market, then it is rolled over, with
a corresponding surge in lease rates. But we are now at a point
where the overhang is so large that even the interest on the roll
overs can not be supported by present supplies of gold. This is
why we are hearing so much about IMF gold sales and Swiss gold
sales as the manipulators become frantic to supply their gold
carry. The carry is becoming rather burdensome.
If lease rates jump to 10%, then annual gold consumption will
jump to as much as 5500 tonnes, yet gold production will
be below 2500 tonnes. Why do I say below 2500 tonnes? I think
the growing shortage in supply will manifest itself in lease
rate increases initially, but the spot price will languish.
This will put more and more gold producers out of business.
This has been the pattern for 15 years in gold and silver.
Patterns eventually do break down if they are illogical.
The gold and silver carry is quite profitable right now. It is
also incredibly dangerous for the participants. I think we
shall see just how dangerous this year.

Tomcat

(04/11/1999; 08:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4560)

Could gold leasing be a winning game for the CBs?

The mining companies are into the forward sales game. Is it possible that the leasing contracts are written in a way if the lease is not paid back in gold to the CB then the CB gets stock or controlling interest in the mine itself?

The Invisible Hand

(04/11/1999; 10:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4561)

June Futures

http://www.usagold.comThere's a lot of discussion in this forum on the June futures.

The discussion revolves around the price.

The Financial Times "reported" (i.e. this could be deducted from its commodities page) on April 10 that the total volume of the London Gold Comex on April 09 was 21,970 and that of these 21,970 contracts, 20,746 were for the June contract.

This means that everybody (i.e. the shorts) want/s gold in June. So gold should move in June.

OK., as far as that I can follow. There comes, this Forum and the Forum discusses only the price which was lower than $ 284 on Friday, whereas the cash price would be $ 281, I think. A difference of three box, hmmm.

How does the Gold Future Market work? Can anybody explain to me why you're so enthusiastic about a three box rise? What am I missing?

Gandalf the White

(04/11/1999; 11:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4562)

The Invisible Hand's question

Welcome to the FORUM Invivible Hand --- The activity that you speak of was related to a "Contest" -- ie. a marketing technique by the owner of the web page to encourage lurkers to become involved and share ideas. As part of the game to guess the Friday settlement of the June Gold contract, one had to explain in thirty words or more, WHY they felt that they price they set forth was to be the true number. Maybe we all went overboard a "little" and that action hid the main activity at the FORUM, -- Sharing of views and discussion of items of interest to ALL Goldhearts. From your post, it appears to me that you are a Chartist and use the "box of one $" on the Gold charts --- IF SO --- Tell us all what you see in your charts. And again Welcome !
<;-)

(04/11/1999; 11:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4563)

Peter

Hey Peter - you wrote;

'So here is this massive sum of 'savings' which has passed through the market and which has been
spent. Along the way, it has picked up the addition of all the margin loan funds, which also were
converted into consumption or other assets. Technically, all of this outflow is one-way and gone, since
both the invested funds and the margin money are totally dependent for their replacement on new
funds, which would have to be earned and invested by new stock purchasers. Theoretically, the whole
quantity could be nulled. The only part that would even be in default would be the unrecovered margin
money.'

Yes, people have been conditioned to believe that these stock funds are the same as savings which can be tapped in the future as needed. I have a friend that is spending his new found stock market wealth via credit cards today. I've had no luck convincing him that he is actually using margin debt to finance his purchases. I've told him he would be better off just selling his stocks but he fears tax consequences. I think he is typical. He thinks he's cutting a fat hog here by avoiding taxes until later but actually has gotten in way over his head. I think the tax implications of stock market investing are as much to blame for this bubble as anything.

ET

YGM

(04/11/1999; 11:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4564)

SteveH

Quite mind boggling stats re: Bank Der. Exp. "IMHO" people should inform the unknowing public (Bank Shareholders and Clients) of these numbers and the potential for these same Institutions Collapse, thru the letters to Editor section of W.S.Journal or other financial newspapers.--YGM.

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 11:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4565)

Invisible Hand

IH, I think the reason we get excited about a three dollar rise in gold can be traced to the lyrics of a Gordon Lightfoot song, ..."I get feeling Better When I'm Feeling No Pain." In other words we get excited when the price is not dropping. That's the excitement I feel. Our day will come in spades but not today, probably.

(04/11/1999; 12:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4566)

Invisible Hand

Hey Mr. Hand - welcome to the forum. You wrote in part;

'The Financial Times "reported" (i.e. this could be deducted from its commodities page) on April 10 that
the total volume of the London Gold Comex on April 09 was 21,970 and that of these 21,970 contracts,
20,746 were for the June contract.'

Most trading in futures contracts is in the most nearby contract. As the June contract nears expiration, these contracts will be rolled to the August contract and most trades will then be in the August contract.

'This means that everybody (i.e. the shorts) want/s gold in June. So gold should move in June.'

Not necessarily for the above reason. A better measure of sentiment would be the Commitment of Traders report which looks at different groups of traders and shows which are net long or net short. Short term sentiment can also be judged using a combination of volume and open interest.

'How does the Gold Future Market work?'

You might want to grab a copy of Murphy's 'Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets'. It's more or less the bible of futures trading. Unfortunately you won't find anything in there concerning this gold leasing business which apparently is keeping the price down.

ET

Aristotle

(04/11/1999; 12:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4567)

To Oregon Geezer

Hey, we've got quite a nice representation at the Table from Oregon. Is it something in the water, or are you people just more freedom-minded than the rest of the States? Glad to have you here. Don't worry about the multiple posts--it happens to all of us sooner or later.

I wanted to comment on your advice: "Y2K tip: If you have the gold and I have the gun, I'll have both the gold and the gun. Be prepared."
'Be prepared for all possibilities' is good advice, including the criminal element. I simply wanted to add to that bor a litle balance, lest people conclude that a gun purchase, creatively exploited, can be substituted for Gold purchases. In a lawless society, the lifespan of criminals will be considerably less than it is today. Capital punishment would likely be applied to a whole host of threatening criminal actions...shoot first and ask questions later. Having some means of protection is good advice, but the odds are slim that an armed bandit will ever come knocking on your door to demand Gold...his license to breathe would have already been revoked long before he reached your house. Such a society does not tolerate those who do not play nicely with others. ---Aristotle

(04/11/1999; 12:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4568)

Goldfly

Hey Goldfly - congrats on your new wealth. Much deserved.

Regarding Kosovo, it appears we are now to be subjected to further propaganda in an attempt to put American forces on the ground in Yugoslavia. I've noticed the last week the new 'polls' indicating everybody wants to commit forces to this conflict. I've been wondering if these poll respondents are the same ones that also think taxes are too low.

In my travels the last week, I listened to quite a bit of talk radio, particularly in the Ohio region. The calls were almost universally against the NATO action. I got to hear a couple of people from Yugoslavia discussing the situation and it was quite different than what we've been told. Both of these people believe that the war is economic in nature with NATO wanting to control the land and the economic resources located there. One guy was very well versed on the drug situation in Albania. Both thought the KLA to be nothing more than drug-running Marxists.

ET

(04/11/1999; 12:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4569)

USAGOLD

So you like Norman, eh?

I'm sticking with Jose Maria. Best front runner in golf. Isn't this the best golf tournament?

ET

Quixotic1

(04/11/1999; 13:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4570)

A preparedness thought for the day...

Aristotle & All--- I'd like to add some of my thoughts about your prognostication during a trend toward a lawless society. If one places any credence on the lessons learned in Russia after the breakup, criminal activity seemed to flourish almost geometrically. I think the underground economy and organized crime would rule by default. We already have an established powerbase for all levels of organized crime. They are inexorably rooted throughout society, law enforcement (ha), and government.

We have the opportunity to examine a case study on the "worst case scenario" of Y2K possibilities. Just heed the plight of the displaced refugees involved in the Kosova action. I would certainly not put all my eggs into one basket, and the big basket wouldn't be my home. Think about it, if you were to be displaced from your home, what resources would be available? I know a lot of people that are very well prepared, as long as they're not displaced. Just a preparedness thought for the day�

All, IMHO, of course�Gold for the good guys�Gary

NORTH OF 49

(04/11/1999; 13:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4571)

USAGOLD: You wrote

in part: "Royal Oak is bankrupt. It owes $5 million to Bank of Nova Scotia. Bank of Nova Scotia, in turn, owes $5 million in gold to some un-named central bank. Here's our chance to understand the gold leasing game. Any ideas what happens next?"

Well, to be honest, you haven't the chance of a snowball in a sauna of getting the answer out of me, but as it happens, my next door neighbour is a manager for a small Bank of Nova Scotia branch. Consequently, I printed off your post and, just like "Tim the Toolman", conducted an impromptu board meeting over our mutual fence--I say "board meeting", because I have a good deal of my meagre worth lodged with his establishment.

The answer, or more the reaction I got was less than inspiring--To quote: "Oh my God, it's started!!"

To which I, understandably, replied "Just what the devil do you mean 'Oh my God, it's started'? He just said, "I'll make some calls in the morning and get back to you."

You know, up until that moment, my day was going really good.

No49

USAGOLD

(04/11/1999; 15:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4572)

Northy...

I wonder why. $5 million is not what I would call a major sum for Bank of Nova Scotia.

Central banks do not take collateral directly in these deals. The bullion banks, as counterparties, usually have a Settlement Line (consisting usually of liquid securities) that they've essentially pledged in case of a default. In this case, the Bank of Nova Scotia will have to cover the deal and then hope to recover in the bankruptcy court or receivership. This means they will have to come up with the bullion. None of these guys would want to force the central bank to rely on the Settlement Line. That's how you get blackballed in the small world of gold bullion trading.

If he's concerned about finding $5 million in gold, we've got a problem far worse than anything I imagined. But that can't be it, can it?

Needless, to say his reaction is interesting.

Aristotle

(04/11/1999; 15:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4573)

Dr. Jones & Quixotic One

Welcome home, Indie! Your conversation with the neighbor...thanks for sharing!! Boy, if THAT doesn't make you nervous, nothing will. Grab your hat and bull whip, my friend, the adventure is about to begin!

I also had a chat with an employee of a rather large local bank. Working to my advantage was the setting. I had joined a friend to meet with some others at the Grand Opening of a new sports bar on Friday. Once there I was introduced to several new people, and over the course of conveersation and drinks, it was revealed that the woman sitting across from me worked for this lending institution.

I inquired if she was aware of any concerns by customers about Y2K. She was cheerful and candid, given the atmosphere, and fully indulged my further questioning. She explained that, so far, the customers have not been of much concern...she said there were maybe ten that she could recall having significant worries. I did not ask if those ten pulled their money, or what made them otherwise memorable out of thousands of customers. Surely more than ten have at least mentioned Y2K, wouldn't you think? If not, then we have not even seen the tip of the iceberg in regard to the demand for Gold.

She said Y2K is a huge concern of management, and they have very frequent meetings about it. When I suggested that the problem was that less than 2% of all money was actually in printed dollar form, she confirmed that that was indeed the problem and source of immediate concern. I asked if there were any restrictions upon making cash withdrawls, and she said at any given time they could handle up to $10,000, but any more would require a week's wait for them to order the required amount from the district or regional Fed bank. That week would seem like an eternity if events were getting dicey ($#!t hitting the fan), wouldn't it? Just like waiting for your Gold to be delivered after ordering it.

Two percent applies to the money supply only, not to the virtual money that is represented by Wall St's market capitalization (stock price multiplied by outstanding shares). Yikes! Why live on the edge when you don't have to? There is no margin of tolerance in the financial system for prudent people to take prudent precautions. The cash will go first to all those that acted early, then the rest will be left chasing rising Gold prices with their remaining checking accounts. I stongly doubt, in an environment of failing confidences resulting from something so basic as a bank's inability to pull cash from a drawer, that people will be inclined to plough additional money into stocks. Good luck finding that "greater fool" to buy you out...just like in Peter's letter the other day from Joe to Harry.

Kosovo is a blessed distraction for the public in the eyes of the banks. Why should the media report on Y2K when there is a juicy WAR to report? Use the opportunity to get some prudent share of cash, and roll your stock profits into Gold delivered to your door.

Quixotic 1-- Great advice about not putting all your eggs into one basket, your house, in the event that displacement will wreck the basket. Gold is the perfect asset, because it is the ultimate portable property--a flexible, indestructible "basket."
Glad to have you at the Round Table! ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/11/1999; 16:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4574)

Bank of Nova Scotia

MK--How about if I give them your number? You did a fine job supplying the Dutch Guilders I was after. (Some of the knights may remember my past inquiries about them. They arrived Saturday and I am quite please with this welcome addition to my stock of Portable Property. They are pleasantly proportioned, thickness vs. diameter, and with their milled edge they look nice in a stack. The angels and roosters remain tough to beat, though.)
You can assure the B. of N.S. that my inventory is not available to bail their butts out of the coming jam. ---Aristotle

USAGOLD

(04/11/1999; 16:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4575)

Tomcat/Royal Oak situation

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q2/1999_04/990410.130135.selbyeeee.htmI think I probably answered your question in my post to North of 49. It falls back on the bullion banks. And I doubt that the central banks or bullion would want to be in the mining business. Perhaps one of our lawyers could walk us briefly through the possible outcomes of a bankruptcy proceeding. I doubt gold loans will be settled by Royal Oak in metal, however.

Let's take this a step further:

In my view, the loans to the mining companies, though dangerous in themselves, are nowhere near as dangerous as the loans to the hedge funds. In the case of Long Term Credit Management the rumor in the gold market is that 1000 tons are at risk. Think what would happen if the bullion bank(s) was/were forced to go into the market for that amount. One estimate I heard of hedge fund exposure is 30% of the gold loaned. It could be higher. These loans are purely speculative. There's no getting the gold out of the ground for hedge funds and the one's who are getting it out of the ground have a large chunk of it already earmarked for loan repayment. There's a great deal of difference between filling a gold order on paper and filling in in hard yellow metal. What we have here is the image of the snake eating its tail. At some point, the feast is over.

I have posted the Royal Oak story url above, if any of our lawyers care to give interpret the legal situation for us.

This is another related url:

http://www.vancouversun.com/newsite/business/2467419.html

USAGOLD

(04/11/1999; 16:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4576)

Aristotle...

Now that you have that gold, perhaps you would consider lending it at 1% APR to Bank of Nova Scotia. They will send you back a fine piece of paper with their corporate seal on it and signed by a vice president. If the world comes crashing down around us, don't worry they'll pay you back. Honest. It might take them awhile though........I would be happy to act as a counter party for a small fee --- say 10%?

SteveH

(04/11/1999; 17:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4577)

The Great Lease Debate continues

from kitco again. But before I post this interesting post from Dabchick, consider that we have seen at least three different peoples' view of gold leasing and to my mind three different interpretations. Obviously obfuscation obliterates obtuse knowledge. Per Dabchick's remarks he points out that the lease rate is the difference in the current Libor minus the lending rate that leaves the "lease" rate or difference of the two. It is clear to me anyway that gold leasing would seem profitable only in a steady or declining gold market. Thus the continueing slam against gold. Here's Dabchick:

*

Date: Sun Apr 11 1999 17:26
Dabchick (rhody....your 07:01 today in reply to summicron's 12:10 of Saturday 10th April) ID#258195:
Copyright � 1999 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have been reading the contributions to the Great Leasing Debate with much interest, as I feel there is a lot to be learnt from it. However, I am still having difficulty ( as has often been the case in the past ) with your remarks about LEASE rates. It appears to me that you always assert that anyone wanting to borrow gold from a CB does so at the Lease rate. WELL, THEY DON'T. They borrow it at the gold LENDING rate.
Whereas you assert in your reply to Summicron that they can borrow gold at 1.46%, you are plain wrong because the current gold LENDING rate for 1-year gold loans is NOT 1.46%. It is 3.76%. That is to say, after borrowing 100 oz for 1 year they have to pay back to the CB not just 101.46 oz, but 103.76 oz.

Likewise, you assert that if you borrow gold for 1 month, then it costs just an annualised rate of 0.67 %. WRONG AGAIN. If you want to borrow gold for just 1 month, you pay an annualised rate of 4.27%. That is to say, after borrowing 100 oz for 1 month, you have to pay back not just 100.0558 oz, but 100.3558 oz

Thirdly, you asserted in your 10:11 Sat 10th April to Ted Butler ( and it appears this is what aroused summicron's query ) that
..........." if lease rates go to 75%, then the annual gold interest on 3000 tonnes will be 2100 tonnes."
In my view, this is utter nonsense.
If lease rates go to 75%, that can only happen where the gold FORWARD rate ( = gold Contango = gold LENDING rate ) is MINUS repeat MINUS 70% ( at current money rates of about 5% ) .
That is to say, if Lease rates go to 75%, the CB's will ( in theory ) be PAYING YOU an annualised rate of 70% TO BORROW their gold.

In my view your utterances on this subject betray a serious misunderstanding of what lease rates are, and their function in the gold markets.

Now I freely admit I am no expert on this topic, and I had hoped that an expert would come in before me here. Please tell me if I am hopelessly wrong and lost myself. I admit to ignorance, but what you have said to ted butler and summicron simply runs contrary to common sense. If anyone else disagrees with what I have said here, please put me straight.
Humbly yours,
Regards............Dabchick

SteveH

(04/11/1999; 17:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4578)

June gold hits...

$284.00 in overnight trading.

Peter Asher

(04/11/1999; 17:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4579)

Not the usual Sunday night!!

Have you guy's seen MRCI?? S&P dn 18.5 DJI dn 138 AU up .6

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 18:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4580)

Globex

It looks like DOW and NASDAK are tanking badly in overseas market, making one happy to have his 60 cent/ oz. increase in gold. We are due for a paper correction and I fear when it hits it will be a doozy. It might even take Mom and Pop America out of the market. Right now, everyone is an expert.

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 18:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4581)

Peter Asher

Peter, you scooped me. We must have seen the news at the same time. This might be ugly before morning.

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 18:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4582)

Peter Asher

Peter, you scooped me. We must have seen the news at the same time. This might be ugly before morning.

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 18:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4583)

Peter Asher

Peter, you scooped me. We must have seen the news at the same time. This might be ugly before morning.

Silver Tongue

(04/11/1999; 18:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4584)

Woops

Sorry to studder. My last post didn't look like it was posting. Next time I'll give it some time. Its what come from old age and geezerhood.

David Linkley

(04/11/1999; 18:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4585)

LTCM hedge fund threatened with eviction-Newsweek

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990411/ch.htmlNEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Long Term Capital Management
(LTCM), the huge hedge fund whose near collapse threatened thestability of global markets last year, is being threatened with eviction by its landlord in a dispute over some $3 million in rent, according to the weekly news magazine Newsweek.

Linkley comment: How much do they have out in gold loans?

Christine

(04/11/1999; 18:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4586)

gold leasing and other conspiracies

Hi Steve H and all --just a few comments re gold leasing from Steve earlier today, and about conspiracies re:gold leasing, and when will it stop so gold can rise I have mentioned this idea in several e-mails--one possible trigger to stop gold leasing could be that the European central banks could reduce or even stop gold leasing as a part of a concerted attack on the US dollar. The theory is that the US dollar is artificially high now and will fall dramatically compared to the euro when gold rises. The euro has its 15% gold reserves, and a much lower proportion of debt than the US dollar. Actually, some may have heard of the rumor (first brought to attention by YGM) that has been going around gold circles. The rumor is that the POG will finally be allowed to start rising in June, 1999. This rumor first appeared in Feb.1999. It has always been baffling as to why June. I have speculated that June, 1999 would make sense if you think the euro forces would need some time after the introduction of the euro in Jan to get all desired US dollar reserves exchanged to euros at the best possible exchange rate, before allowing the euro to strengthen relative to the US dollar. (However, I am not an advocate of the euro and believe that it might prevail for a time, but its long-term chances are not good for alot of reasons.) Conspiracies can be as small as "manipulation" or "maneuvering." This huge fiat currency mess does not make any sense to me. How did it get to these unbelievable proportions. I cannot understand how intelligent central bankers having way more knowledge than myself could ever have let things get to this disastrous condition. I keep thinking, they cannot be that stupid. There has to be more to this that I do not understand or see. Chris

Peter Asher

(04/11/1999; 19:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4587)

Silver Tongue & All

If you are on The Forum first, and go from there to Post, then after your post has been whisked away, hit your *reload *and you should see that your post is there

Peter Asher

(04/11/1999; 19:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4588)

Big link, may not fit the box

http://www.europe.cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9904/11/moneyline_trans/This could be the trigger!!

Compaq report a 'disaster' PC maker's earnings warning
could pressure broader market, analyst says.

http://www.europe.cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9904/11/moneyline_trans/

Jade

(04/11/1999; 23:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4589)

Heating Up!!

Overnight the Dollar is down against the Yen. Fear entered the Japan market as the overnight futures have the S&P DOWN over 20 and NASDAQ DOWN over 40. We may very well have put a top in the Dow last week. This could be the crossroads. As we all know Gold could move here also due to the Long Commercials on COT's report Friday. We may be stepping into a very hot week.

Gandalf the White

(04/11/1999; 23:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4590)

Hey Goldfly !!!

Did youse use dat whole bag of STOMP POWDER ? I can not hold back the rising vibes of Au tonight. Looks as if the DOW, S&P and NAS are taking a DEEP DIVE tomorrow. Where is Gollum when one needs him ?
<;-)

Aristotle

(04/12/1999; 02:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4591)

Education through discussion...

Aristotle: "The person of wisdom and achievement may be verified through their predominant ownership of Gold."

Pupil: "So I've been told. But I fail to see the truth of the matter. Please explain."

A: "What is a dollar?"

P: "Huh?"

A: "What is it? What does it mean?"

P: "What do you mean, 'What's it mean?'?"

A: "Just answer the question."

P: "It doesn't *mean* anything."

A: "My point exactly. Now, tell me about Gold."

P: "Huh?"

A: "What does it mean? What is it?"

P: "Whaddaya mean?"

A: "C'mon...work with me here."

P: "It doesn't *mean* anything either, does it? It simply is what it is."

A: "My point exactly."

P: "Wait a minute. I know you favor gold. But I fail to see how your "point" gives gold the edge."

A: "Surely you are kidding...what part did you miss?"

P: "Huh?"

A: "Look, in the purest sense, the dollar *means* nothing. It is a number with no substance. (I see you nodding...that is good.) Any element of "meaning," or value, that you attach to it is its only claim to an identity. Surely you'll admit that you are more readily capable of holding something in contempt than esteem, especially when that 'something' is actually nothing."

P: "Of course, that is all quite true. And what of gold?"

A: "In the purest sense, it is what it is, defined only by weight. More is more, and less is less. Its scarcity earns respect for the skill and labor that brought it to your hand. More is more, and less is less."

P: "Quite true. Please continue."

A: "Unlike the dollar, Gold is immune to physical abuse, and any sentimental abuse is reflected perfectly, revealing the flawed mentality or weak character of that source of the unwarranted disparagement."

P: "I can see now why you hold gold in the higher regard. The man who argues against gold has less of what can be called 'human' about him than the metal itself. Thank you for your patience."

A: "Remember, Knowledge that is left unapplied claims no distinction from Ignorance -- Where are you going?"

Pupil: "To exchange my dollars for gold. This is one student that can think for himself, and does not need everything to be spelled out for him."

Aristotle: "I applaud your achievement and wisdom."

SteveH

(04/12/1999; 02:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4592)

June gold now making its move...

higher at $284.70.

SteveH

(04/12/1999; 03:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4593)

$284.70 will appear as a gap up in

June gold trading when NY opens signalling renewed bull interest and likely sparking further gains.

Gold TA per Goldfvr showing strong reverse head and shoulder pattern that if gold chose to straighten out its shoulders would reach $390.

Weekly TA showing upper bollinger ready to cross under $300 but also shows gold coming off declining lower bollinger that imo shows gold will rise to meet lowering upper bollinger some where in the mid to high $300's soon.

Oregon Geezer

(04/12/1999; 05:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4594)

To Aristotle

Thank you for your reply (message 4567).
What I intended by the gold/gun comment was to illustrate the prudence of personal defense against any potential thief. The statement could have read: If you have the (put anything in this space --- gold, food, fuel, etc.) and I have the gun, then I'll have both the (whatever) and the gun. I suggest this for those who are completely defenseless and have valuable resources and assets. I agree that a gun is no substitute as an either or for gold; I suggest that people have both in advance of the problem. Ordinary people can become really strange under trying circumstances.
I am not surprised that there is a good representation in this forum from Oregon. Even though we are pinched between California and Washington state, there is a good number of us who are damned independent and fed up liberalism both on the local and national venues. Sadly, there are not enough of us to vote the rascals out.
Oregon Geezer

T. Remital

(04/12/1999; 05:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4595)

CHUG CHUG>>>>

SHORTS ON THE RUN....it will be no picnic in the gold market as those who are short gold
or owe gold on a lease deal will be facing a limited supply when they want to cover..To add
to this mix ..there are producers that have sold forward that may be faced with the
inability to deliver agaist their contract .They have been warned many times at this forum
about the state of the mkt.The train is ready to shift gears...Station 400 may be a short
time away..>>>>>>

Skraeling

(04/12/1999; 08:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4596)

barring a horrific catastrophe, gold will always stay low

Much as I like the shiny stuff (and I own a wee bit) I honestly think gold is going nowhere--face it, given all governments' insatiable desire for total economic control, the use of gold as currency is their worst nightmare--they want us all "digitized" so that every cent is accounted for. The public at large has become so unused to gold that they really have no clue what it's worth, outside of a jewelry context. The powers that be will never let gold go anywhere, and the only way it will is in some dystopic "Mad Max" future scenario. But if that ever happens the best metal to own will be Pb--in the form of buckshot and hollowpoints.

USAGOLD

(04/12/1999; 08:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4597)

Today's Gold Report...Strong Advance Dollar Related

MARKET UPDATE (4/12/99): Gold advanced impressively in today's early going on
reports of a massive dollar selloff. Most of the news services are reporting that international
investors began selling dollars after yesterday's report that Compaq, the computer maker,
will be reporting earnings far below Wall Street expectations. We warned that this might be
the case last week -- as the earnings season unfolds and investors and money managers
discover that current earnings will not be what they hoped for. The dollar was soft in
Europe, according to Reuters, because investors there fear "a fall in U.S. stocks could hurt
the country's economy and prompt foreign investors to quit its markets." One trader as
reported saying that "This is the doomsday scenario for the market." Gold is also getting a
boost internationally from reports that Russian might be getting directly involved in the
Balkan War. There is tremendous pressure within Russia to help its Serbian brethren in the
Balkans. The London Bullion Market Association reported a 6% rise in gold turnover in
March to 28.5 million ounces from 26.7 million in February.

If you would like to receive a free copy of our widely circulated newsletter, News &
Views, please go to our ORDER FORM or contact Marie at 800-869-5115.

In Brief.....Reuters reports that China will increase its euro holdings despite its recent
weakness. Chinese officials say the drop of around 9% against the dollar was "temporary
and no implications for a long term trend..................The euro is up against the dollar
this morning and analysts are attributing the strength to this logic: With interest rates going
down, the European economy will be stronger than the U.S. thus attracting foreign
capital.................Stock markets around the globe tumbled overnight in anticipation of a
major selloff on Wall Street. As we go to fetch this over, NASDAQ is down 32.54 and the
Dow 49.40.....................Top creditors are trying to force Royal Oak Mines into
bankruptcy. Part of Royal Oak's loan package is a $5 million gold loan from Bank of Nova
Scotia....

�

YGM

(04/12/1999; 09:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4598)

@ Skraeling--Hang in there buddy!

Don't give up the fight before you hear the bell. It's tolling,
can't you hear it? These guys around here can do wonders
for defeatest attitudes. Things are not always as they seem.
Maybe you're watching too much CNBC. Go Gata!
The tide WILL turn with a vengence soon. IMHO.--YGM.

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 10:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4599)

Read this to see what drives the world: Bananas and 800-pound gorillas

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990412/caribbean__1.htmlFor America, the issue is U.S. firms' stake in the global economy. For Europe, it's partly a moral debt to people they enslaved. And for islanders, it's a humbling quest for a place in the sun.

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 10:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4600)

Japanese Bank Fails

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_316000/316777.stmMore said to be on the brink of collapse.

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 10:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4601)

Pro-euro fightback begins

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/newsid_315000/315948.stmSupporters coming off the bench.

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 12:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4602)

Mexico peso accelerates slide on Ortiz comments

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990409/0p.htmlDominos

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 13:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4603)

The IMF and the Balkan Crisis...good reading on an otherwise slow day.

April 8, 1999

Memo To: Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: A Polyconomics Report, Six Years Ago

When the Clinton administration began six years ago, it came onto the scene during the middle of a chess game in the Balkans that had begun several years earlier. Perhaps your predecessor, Warren Christopher, had a grasp of how the game began, but I doubt he took the trouble to understand the forces that wormed their way into the Balkans that led to the rot back then... and today. Polyconomics took the trouble to look back to the origins of the ethnic strife that began in 1987, discovering the destabilizing influence of the International Monetary Fund as the primary culprit. Criton Zoakos, then of my staff, wrote the following letter to our clients on May 5, 1993. It is one of many pieces we've written over the years on the continuing Balkan crisis. On the theory that if you don't know why something broke, it becomes difficult to fix and stay fixed, I send you this copy of our 1993 letter and hope it helps you realize that where swords will not work in that part of the world, ploughshares will.

* * * * *
The IMF and the Balkan Crisis (May 5, 1993)

In 1987, the old Yugoslavia, with all its tragic failings, was still a functioning state. The International Monetary Fund then took over economic policy, implementing a number of all too familiar shock therapies: devaluation, a wage freeze, and price decontrol -- designed on the Harvard/MIT economic textbook principles meant to drive the wage rate down to a level where it would be internationally competitive. As the economy contracted from this shock, revenues to the central government declined, triggering pressure from the IMF to raise taxes to balance the budget. As always, this led to a further weakening of the once strong Yugoslav new dinar, which in 1986 was still worth $22.

These centrifugal forces began to tear at the federation, with the richer provinces of Croatia and Slovenia objecting to being drained of resources by the poorer provinces. Just as the USSR splintered as the IMF browbeat the Gorbachev government into a ruble devaluation, Yugoslavia broke into pieces as ethnic and religious rivalries were reasserted in an attempt to control the rapidly shrinking pool of resources. As in Russia today, where the IMF textbook shock therapy is again being used, the peoples' money capital had been extinguished and the population left impoverished. On average, the dinar was devalued by one order of magnitude each year. As in Russia, inflation was driven by the price of oil being pushed ever higher in a fruitless attempt to reach world levels. By December 1989, the dinar had fallen in value by 200 times, to 11 cents from $22. Hyperinflation became evident in December 1991 as the dinar fell to one-half cent of value by the following summer, to the present 0.003 cents. Hyper-unemployment accompanied the hyper-inflation. [In Russia, the ruble has now lost 200 times its value of 1987, roughly where the Yugoslav dinar was in December 1989, not quite yet at the point of a hyperinflation that would in all likelihood produce a breakdown of civil authority.]

When the IMF shock therapy hit Yugoslavia, the initial form of social disorder was not ethnic friction but massive and repeated strikes and other labor actions. As late as 1988, an enterprising U.S. journalist deployed in Belgrade had difficulty finding evidence of ethnic passions and reported: " 'I would be a Serb, a Bosnian, anything - an Uzbekistani - I'd make my eyes slanted, if I'd have money,' says a Belgrade taxi driver named Zoran, stretching the skin around his eyes with his fingers to make his point." Ordinary people turned into ethnic monsters only after all their options for a normal economic life were destroyed. "Ethnic cleansing" arrived only after "shock therapy" had done its work. Finally, on December 14, 1992, when dinar devaluation reached the IMF's theoretical ideal of infinite percent with the dissolution of the state that used to issue dinars, civilized life ended and was replaced by a "natural state of war," as political philosopher John Locke predicted would invariably happen when organized government disappears from a people's life.

Now, the same Western intellectuals who cheer IMF shock therapies propose the further extinction of the last remnants of organized government in Serbia under the blows of the proposed allied air strikes. This will produce not less violence but more -- precisely because of the further extinction of organized power. Once this happens, the United Nations and others will discover that instead of trying to stop a war of tanks, artillery batteries, aircraft, and chains of command, they will have to deal with a war in which crazed populations kill each other with knives, clubs or their bare hands.

The logic of the proposed air strikes falsely presumes that the crippled Serbian government in Belgrade has the power to impose its will on such Bosnian Serb leaders-of-the-moment as Radovan Karadzik and that, in turn, quixotic figures like Karadzik have the power to impose their will on the rank-and-file of armed Bosnian Serbs. In fact, Belgrade and Karadzik command attention from the armed Serbian rank-and-file only when they serve the logic of the post-civilization "state of war."

Karadzik, as the Bosnian Serbs' putative leader, signed the May 2 Athens accord accepting the Vance-Owens Plan only 48 hours after he had called it "suicidal for the Serbian nation" during an interview with the Deutsche Presse Agentur. For most of April, Karadzik had tried to convince the Bosnian Serb parliament to accept the plan, although suicidal, by arguing that the alternative, i.e., systematic allied bombing of neighboring Serbia, would destroy the only still existing organized state of the Serbian nation.

Following the Athens agreement, battlefield reports from throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina indicate that Serbian field commanders do not consider themselves bound by Karadzik's signature. The fighting will continue not until all sides complete their "ethnic cleansing," but until organized government is restored. In the meantime, the other shoe will fall during May 15 and 16, when the Serbian population in Bosnia holds its referendum on the Vance-Owens Plan -- which is widely expected to be soundly rejected.

On what grounds should the United Nations ignore the Bosnian Serbs' referendum? When the Croatian people held their referendum for independence on May 19, 1991, the world community bowed to their will and recognized Croatia; when the Slovenians did the same, the U.N. again complied. Why is the Clinton Administration on the Serbs' case, pretending that Croats and Bosnians are innocent victims? While media headlines throughout April were filled with preparations for military action against Serbs, the greatest atrocities -- according to reports from the International Red Cross -- were perpetrated by Bosnian Muslims against Croats.

If the Clinton Administration bombs Serbs and arms Bosnian Muslims as it proposes, the levels of violence will only escalate. U.N. ground troops will be confronted with 10 million Serbs settling down to long-term partisan warfare, Bosnian Muslims reinforced by battalions of Iranian-armed and financed mujaheddin, and vengeful Catholic Croats. The entire Balkan peninsula will be one monstrously large Beirut at the mercy of anarchistic ethnic and religious militias. The Serbs will hate the U.N.-U.S. peacekeeping force because of the bombings; the Croats will hate it because it armed the Bosnian Muslims; the Bosnian Muslims will also hate it because they will be under the sway of Muslim fundamentalist mujaheddin armed and financed by Iran. Our presence there will be similar to the U.S. Marines' presence in Beirut in 1982. Our moral outrage at the atrocities Beirutis were perpetrating against each other was no less than our outrage at the present Balkan atrocities. Yet, Ronald Reagan, a proud President under whose watch Soviet Communism was defeated, saw no choice but to leave when we brought home more than 200 Marines in body bags.

Sen. Dennis DeConcini [D-NM], chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and an advocate of the use of force in Bosnia, appeared Monday on CNN's "Crossfire," rejecting the argument of Rep. Robert Torricelli [D-NJ] that we should not use force unless we know where that will lead. In a letter to DeConcini yesterday, Jude Wanniski noted: "Bob Torricelli seems closer to reality in arguing it is a slippery slope. The last thing we should do is put troops on the ground. Leave it to some madman to get his hands on a tactical nuclear weapon and we'd lose as many troops in an afternoon as we did over several years in Vietnam."

Rather than playing futile military games, we believe the only constructive route is to undo the destruction wrought by the IMF's shock therapy. The starting point, we have suggested, is to reverse the IMF policies that have pointed Russia and the rest of the ruble area toward economic and political disintegration. With the collapse of communism in Moscow two years ago, The Wall Street Journal asserted editorially that the IMF was now the single most destructive force on earth. The Fund, for the most part controlled by the international banks through their influence at the U.S. Treasury, is truly the satanic force that precipitated the crisis in the Balkans. Until it is somehow neutralized, ethnic cleansing, atrocities and civil war around the world will continue to lay claim to America's blood and treasure.

Criton Zoakos

[Clients: You have our permission to circulate this report beyond your institution if you wish. We are having an extremely difficult time getting our perspective on Bosnia and Russia broadcast through established media. JW]

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 13:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4604)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals

Mostly Higher; COT Report Helps Gold

New York-April 12-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished firmer here today, with gold helped by
Commitments of Traders (COT) data showing the funds heavily
short and prompting thoughts that a short-covering rally may
occur as a result, sources here said.
Silver started out firmer on the coattails of gold, but
backed off when the market was not able to maintain its
momentum above $5, sources said.
June gold added $1.10 to $284.50 but early today traded
as high as $286.20.
"Gold is looking perky on a technical basis," said Tim
Evans, senior commodity analyst at Pegasus Econometrics.
"The Commitments of Traders report which came out Friday
showed a heavy net short exposure in the reportable non-
commercial category. So the funds are heavily short
here."
The COT data showed that as of April 6, the large non-
commercial category--which includes funds--was short 97,713
contracts and long only 9,350, for a net short position of
88,363.
"It's not just at a moderately high level, but it's at
a pretty extreme level," said Evans. "So that does create
potential for pretty significant short covering."
Echoed Patrick Magilligan, vice president with
Prudential Securities: "If you're short that much, you could
get a decent short-covering rally."
And this in turn may have prompted some players to
start covering positions, before the market lost its
momentum and pared its gains, Magilligan added.
Initially today, gold was also supported by overnight
weakness in equities, with the S&P 500 futures sharply lower
ahead of the open on Wall Street after a profit warning from
Compaq on Friday.
"That had stocks opening sharply weaker and created
some support for gold," said Evans. "We've given back some
of those gains (in gold) as the stock market has recovered,
but it is still looking fairly constructive here in terms of
building a case for a move to the upside."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as low as
10,096.69 this morning, but has since rebounded sharply and
is now up 130.98 points for the day at 10,304.82.
Evans put minor resistance at today's $286.20 high,
with more resistance anticipated at the $287.70 high of
March 23. A break of these levels would leave the market in
a position to pursue the $298.20 high of March 11.
He put support at Friday's $283.40 close, then $283
even, Friday's $281.30 low, then the April 5 low of
$279.10.
"We did spend eight or nine sessions that we
consolidated between $279.10 and $283 even," said Evans.
"That now looks like at least interim-basis support under
this market."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

Skraeling

(04/12/1999; 13:33:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4605)

@YGM

Thanks for the pep talk, Yukon. If it all hits the blades the way everyone says, I think I'd like to be up your way instead of down here in the big apple.

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 13:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4606)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold up $1.1, trims early gain

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Apr 12--COMEX Jun gold futures settled up $1.10 at $284.50 per
ounce, trimming their gains after jumping to a 2 1/2 week high of $286.20 early
in the session. Gold had climbed on short-covering after Friday's commitment of
traders data showed that short positions had increased heavily. However, after
the initial jump higher, the session quietened and gold fell from its highs on
disappointed trade selling, said market players.
COMEX commitments of traders data released after the market closed Friday
showed short positions increased over 1 million ounces to 9,771,300 ounces from
Mar 30 to Apr 6 (story .2107).
One trader noted that some players were "taking pre-emptive action" to cover
shorts because they feared a short-covering rally. "It's a sort of
self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.
Today's rally was a followup to Friday's short-covering, following Jun gold's
dip to a contract low of $279.10 Monday last week.
Traders noted that gold's inability to build on this morning's gains led to
disappointed trade selling, although volume was thin and "no big players were
participating," said one trader.
"The stock market took cente rstage and it's still the best game in town," he
said. Some traders suggested that the US equities climb around midday after an
early slump may have put a lid on gold's short-covering rally.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

YGM

(04/12/1999; 14:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4607)

@Skraeling:

If I were in NY or any other place S of 49 or even S of 60
I'd be packing and whistling North To Alaska. If Russia
starts to Glow Green I'm outa luck unless I can move fast.
When it comes down to it, who feels totally safe anymore?
But a gun and a bag of Gold can work miracles for those
with strong survival instincts. Helps out in the interim in
terms of the confidence of knowing you're prepared for the
worst also. Want an AK travel brochure?? I hope for the
best myself and prepare for the worst. Maybe I'll be hand
mining in the Bolivian Andes next year! Best of Luck to
you in NY.---YGM

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 14:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4608)

Banks repair the Y2K bug, but still fear year-end panic

http://www.bergen.com/biz/bankmm19990411.htmBanks are especially vulnerable to Y2K-related alarms

Arizona Hiker

(04/12/1999; 17:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4609)

Now even the gold bugs are gripped by self-doubt

It has been wonderful to read all the "gloom-and-doom" and hand-wringing on Kitco today. As I recall, late last summer when the gold stocks finally got off the mat, the Kitco crowd was quick to announce the "second-coming."

This time, even with the COT numbers in our favor and the gold sector once again beginning to rally off key support, there is widespread disbelief. Most "goldies" have been so bruised and battered at this point, they can only watch the start of this race with one eye open and all fingers and toes crossed.

Sadly, when the real rally comes, a lot of these folks will sell into the first minute of consolidation or pull-back, fearing that gold is ready to once again head straight down the chute.

Yes friends, even the choir is not listening to the preacher at this point. This is further anecdotal evidence of what I already believe -- that the recent washout in gold and mining stocks (encompassed by the crash and the triple bottom) has been more severe in both price and sentiment than the previous bottoms of the past twenty years.

As a pundit once said, at key turning points in the market, "the train leaves the station empty." How true. The gold train, I believe, may have just left the station and the passenger compartments are quite empty.

My gut tells me that the near-term move might be a lot better than most expect.

Aristotle

(04/12/1999; 19:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4610)

Glum moods, bears and bulls

Hi Arizona Hiker,
I've noticed that the mood on a Gold forum corresponds more directly (inversely proportional) with the performance of 30 industrial stocks (the DOW) moreso than the changing price of Gold. Take today for example..."HELLO!" < < < Hello > > > < < < hello . . . . hello. . . hello . . . The DOW rocketed, while the Gold price moved up nicely from Friday... and people are glum! Seems that the only thing that will put a smile on many of the gold faces is a plunging DOW. My hunch is that the typical DOW Index Fund owner does not gage his or her happiness based on what Gold did on any given day, so what's the deal, fellows? I would think we'd be the last group to have a nasty mean streak. Do what you must to enjoy your own life, and don't second guess yourself; don't measure your success and happiness by someone else's yardstick. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 19:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4611)

WGC News Release: Swiss Gold -- On Hold

LONDON/ZURICH: Monday 12 April 1999
The tussle over the proposed sales of gold and the desire among the Swiss people to make an international humanitarian gesture versus the impulse to conserve the wealth of the country for domestic purposes may well create further paralysis in any move to sell gold. Widespread fears that Switzerland will shortly start to sell large quantities of its gold are unfounded, says the World Gold Council in a new publication, Switzerland's Gold.

The Swiss electorate will be voting in a referendum on Sunday, April 18, to change the country's constitution. If this is approved, the constitutional link between the Swiss franc and gold will cease to exist, though it ceased to operate as a de facto arrangement many years ago.
Assuming the referendum is approved, it will pave the way for legislation to remove the link and, furthermore, it will also remove the constitutional barrier which prevents the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from selling any gold.
However, in a 10-point summary of the background to the proposed changes, Gary Mead, head of research at the WGC's Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS), says that even on the assumption that the referendum passes and that the necessary constitutional and legal changes are approved, the need to gain political agreement for the detailed process may hold up significant gold sales.

Switzerland currently holds 2,590 tonnes of gold in its official reserves and is the fourth largest holder of gold after the central banks of the Eurosystem, the United States and the IMF. It has been proposed that up to 1,300 tonnes of Swiss gold could be sold over a prolonged period, with the proceeds from some 500 tonnes used to fund a 'Solidarity Foundation' to help under-privileged peoples around the world, while those from the remainder would be used to finance projects in Switzerland.

"Several legislative and political hurdles must be surmounted before any gold can be sold," says Mead. "The SNB and the Finance Ministry have made their recommendations but how they are practically implemented will be a parliamentary decision, and one fraught with uncertainty."

The creation of the Solidarity Foundation will have to be approved via another referendum and opinion is deeply divided over it. There is also still disagreement over how the other 800 tonnes could be used, more than 18 months after the proposal to sell some gold was first aired.

"According to the SNB, any sale of gold could only follow a decision by a majority of the Swiss parliament as to what to do with the proceeds. In Switzerland such decisions depend upon the achievement of a prior consensus outside parliament among a wide variety of political constituencies," says Mead.

Another factor is the general election scheduled for October this year, which may further delay the planned legislative timetable.

"Although there is determination among some senior Swiss politicians and within the SNB to sell some gold, it is evident that the debate as to the purposes of the proceeds from such sales is at a very early stage. Without that debate being settled, gold disposals of any kind are highly unlikely," says Mead.

Press release reprinted at USAGOLD courtesy of the World Gold Council

CoBra(too)

(04/12/1999; 19:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4612)

self doubt

At times self doubt tends to become self fullfilling prophecy - particularily at times, when everything seems to be in place to herald certain (dead certain) moves in a clear direction - yet the opposite outcome (again, like today)proves our hopes and wishes obsolete. Devastating to our ego's as I have to admit to myself.
Without indulging into manipulation and conspiracies, though I feel there is room for doubt, I would rather rationalize where we stand in terms of todays markets. Fundamentals are of no concern, we seem to live in a virtual world, where the only acceptable reality is virtual reality (dot com). Even CNBC is telling us to buy IT Tech. stocks on (any) dips, at least today they didn't pressure us on CPQ (much appreciated).
Most of the world markets are facing reality - The new record highs on Wall Street seem "virtual reality" on a global printing press virtual reality US $ hegemony, built on crumbling credit pillars of trust towards the last resort consmer and superpower of virtual wealth,while rapidly losing credi(t-rating)bility globally.
IMHO, the POG is only one, though important factor in the overall equation of the "$-(Fiat)Standard", there may be forces, scorched by its supremacy in a floating system of currencies, which may feel a parameter for real (if comparative in reality ) value is imperative. The 28 yrs of $ fiat standard are falling apart as a system totally inept to govern the world's economic and social needs.
There is only one parameter, accepted through milleniums by mankind to arbiter true and lasting value. Why did we ever discard this only true measurement of value and stability for virtual assets?
Greed and fear - when gold again, as it will eventually, takes over the greedy (few)will fear, while humanity and sanity will again reign the world.

Pathetic in a way - still hope its our G-bugs turn. Forgive my mediocre English - trying hard - take care
CoBra(too)

TownCrier

(04/12/1999; 19:49:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4613)

WGC Gold Notes & Quotes--April 1999

IMF Gold Sales Set for Struggle in Congress
Reuters � March 18, 1999
The idea of selling gold from IMF reserves is set to face opposition in the U.S. Congress and lawmakers may call for IMF reforms as a condition for approving any sales, a senior lawmaker said. Jim Saxton, likely to be confirmed as vice chairman of Congress's Joint Economic Committee in the coming weeks, said there was no broad congressional backing for the idea of selling gold, a proposal floated by President Bill Clinton as a way to fund debt relief for poor countries.
��"There is no broad support for it. It is not an issue that has been discussed at any length by the congressional leadership or by most members of Congress," Saxton, a Republican from New Jersey, told Reuters Television. Saxton, long a fierce critic of the International Monetary Fund, said Congress might link approval of the sales to additional reforms at the lending institution. "We will be pursuing reforms as we proceed to consider this question of whether the IMF should sell gold," he said.
��The U.S. administration fought long and hard last year to persuade Congress to approve the release of $18 billion in new funding for the IMF, which has been struggling to cope with financial crises in Asia, Russia and Latin America. The money was approved only after acrimonious debate and after financial turmoil in Brazil raised the specter that the world's economic problems could spread to hit the still-booming United States. The bill including the cash appropriation for the $18 billion said the money was conditional on U.S. pressure on other members to reform and open up the secretive IMF.
��Previous legislation, approved when Congress agreed to a previous increase in IMF resources in 1983, says Congress must give the green light to the sale of gold from the IMF's 103 million ounce reserve, if this gold is used for purposes such as debt relief which benefit a specific group of countries. Gold sales would also have to be approved by other IMF member countries, although the United States, which has 18 percent of the votes at the lending institution, would be able to block any decision on its own. An IMF spokesman said that the fund had yet to set a date to debate the idea of gold sales. "No decision has been taken and no decision on the actual timing of any sales can be taken in view of the need for the U.S. executive director to the IMF to secure congressional authorization for the sale of gold by the fund," he said.

Bombay Seen Winning Back Gold Trade With Tax Cut
Reuters � March 22, 1999
A proposed reduction in the Maharashtra state sales tax on bullion will help Bombay win back business from rival market centres, Indian jewelry exporters and industry officials said on Monday. Higher local taxes have eroded Bombay's kingpin position in the bullion business, with much of India's gold imports being routed to the city via other centres like Ahmedabad, in the neighboring state of Gujarat.
��The government of the western state of Maharashtra, of which Bombay is the capital, proposed to lower the sales tax on bullion to 0.5 percent from two percent in the state budget for 1999/2000. "We are not going to increase overall imports, but we will cut into the import business of Ahmedabad," said Ramesh Ganesan, head of trading and commodity finance at ABN-Amro Bank.
��India, the world's largest gold consuming country, imports almost all its requirements. "The bullion tax cuts are progressive steps and we now see it happening in most states," said Derrick Machado, financial institutions manager at the World Gold Council (WGC) in Bombay. "With the expected launch of gold banking in India, there are now eight to ten states having uniform tax rates," he said. Indian banks are seeking clearance to begin gold deposit schemes, and some have started issuing gold loans in a drive to mobilize the huge amount of funds lying unproductive in private hands. The government of the southern state of Tamil Nadu last week reduced the general sales tax to 0.5 percent from two percent and exempted bullion from a turnover tax.
��India's official gold imports rose to 614 tons in 1998, up 17 percent from the previous year, WGC figures show. A number of bullion imports centres have mushroomed in India in the last few months with Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Banglalore and Hyderabad accounting for the bulk of the imports. "I expect competition to come in a big way for us since we will no longer be enjoying the tax advantage over Bombay," said Sunip Nitin Chokshi, partner at Girish Kumar Chokshi & Sons, leading bullion importers in Ahmedabad. The Indian government liberalized import regulations in October 1997 allowing a cluster of banks and nominated agencies to import and sell gold in the local market.

Gold and International Tensions
Blanchard and Co., Christopher Holton � March 25, 1999
Gold has often been called the "crisis commodity" because it often outperforms other investments during periods of international tensions. The very same factors that would cause other investments to suffer cause the price of gold to rise. Recently, it has been argued that tensions now have a muted effect on gold and that gold has been replaced by the dollar as a safe haven during crisis periods. Most recently, many traders have been quoted in the financial press claiming that, because gold has not shot up due to Operation Allied Force, it no longer has a role for investors as a safe haven during international crisis. Most traders today have no experience whatsoever with world crisis. Three times over the past 25 years, during periods of truly serious international tensions involving military conflict, gold proved to be vital to investment portfolios. Because the world is a dangerous place today, you should take these lessons from history and include gold in your portfolio.
��For example, gold did exactly what it was supposed to do during the Gulf War. During the period of uncertainty before the allied attack, its price climbed 14.8% from $351/oz. to $403/oz.--while stocks were falling. When very soon after Desert Storm began it became obvious that allied forces were likely to be overwhelmingly successful against Iraqi forces, the uncertainty was gone. Not surprisingly, gold fell $24 per ounce on the first day of Desert Storm. Stocks soared. The sudden turnaround had nothing to do with gold losing its status as a safe haven. It was more a tribute to the astonishing effectiveness of allied planning and the high level of training and boldness that seemed unusually common among the fighting men and women of our armed forces.
��The same situation exists with regard to Kosovo and the conflict with the Serbs. The operation lacks the uncertainty that has historically been associated with gold's role as a safe haven. From the very start of Operation Allied Force, no one expected the Serbs to pose an overwhelming threat to anyone outside of their limited theater of operations. NATO's 1995 conflict with the Serbs in Bosnia demonstrated that Serb forces had neither the will nor the means to deal with a U.S.-led NATO air campaign. After all NATO aircraft returned safely from their sorties on the first day of the operation, any worries about a militarily unsuccessful operation were extinguished. Moreover, despite Russian protests, Russia quickly stated that they had no intention of taking "extreme measures" or using force as a result of NATO's "violation of international law." Therefore, the threat of a wider conflict evaporated before it ever developed momentum. Because there is no real danger to the world economy, financial markets, or balance of power associated with the conflict in Kosovo, there is no need for gold to serve as a safe haven.
��This would almost certainly not be the case in a variety of other possible scenarios:

* What if a major civil war erupted in Russia?
* What if India and Pakistan came to blows?
* What if terrorists succeeded in obtaining nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons?
* What if the regime in Saudi Arabia became destabilized and sympathetic to the Islamic fundamentalist cause?

��Any one of these scenarios would shock the financial markets and, with the U.S. military stretched beyond its limits already with commitments around the globe, the Free World may not be able to react effectively to some of these threats.
��This is just one of many reasons that investors need to hold gold as an insurance policy against unexpected negative events.

Widespread Central Bank Gold Sales Seen Unlikely
Reuters � March 31, 1999
Although the fear of the gold sales from central banks has cast a pall over the market in recent months, those fears may be unfounded to some degree, according to Terry Smeeton, a director of Standard Bank and former head of the Bank of England's foreign exchange division. While central bank gold sales are possible from developing countries, such countries account for only a small fraction of world reserves.
��"Approximately 80 percent of the world's gold reserves are in the hands of the developed countries and is under the control of just four separate authorities," Smeeton said in a speech at the Gold and Silver Institute's annual meeting. "While this in itself doesn't necessarily reduce the possibility of sales from those areas, it does mean that the threat of unexpected and disruptive sales is reduced. While you can't rule out gold sales from the central banks of developing nations, this only accounts for approximately 20 percent of the world's reserves. And I don't think such sales will be enough to really affect the market," he added.
��"I think it's fair to say that in recent weeks the fears that there might be large sales from the Euroland central banks have eased. The ECB has moved swiftly to establish control over the national central banks in matters of reserve management. Unpublished rules are in place whereby national central banks wishing to undertake any significant reserve diversification operations . . . need first to obtain the agreement of the ECB, and I think it is clear that in relation to gold transactions, such permission is unlikely to be forthcoming," he said.
��Smeeton said European countries outside of the EU collectively hold 1,100 tons of gold. "These countries are not subject to the centralized policies of the ECB and may therefore be thought more likely candidates for selling�But it is important to bear in mind that all of these countries are, if the Euro becomes a significant currency, likely to wish to join in the early years of the next century." Such entries need to be approved by the existing members "and pre-emptive sales of gold might well be interpreted as an unfriendly act."

Republished at USAGOLD by permission of the World Gold Council

Jade

(04/12/1999; 21:17:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4614)

This week has just started.

"This thing could be setting everyone up". Below I have quoted from M. Armstrong's most recent post at his site www.pei-intl.com. As I have stated previously, Armstrong is not one of my favorites, but his group does have the knack at picking major turning points in the equity markets, as he did pick the previous July 20 date last year.

"Another interesting aspect about the opening and closing patterns around important tops is that the vast majority of the final days of a rally actually close HIGHER and may often close near the high of the day. This pattern appears to be the hallmark of a lack of shorts and a concentration of longs. This has been the pattern for April 8th. This was even true in both 1929 and 1987"

SteveH

(04/12/1999; 21:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4615)

June gold now ...

$284.60.

I've said enough.

turbohawg

(04/12/1999; 21:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4616)

Jade

yep ... looks like a good time to buy a few lottery puts.

Goldfly

(04/12/1999; 22:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4617)

North of 49

Northman!

Any word from your neighborhood banker?

GF

beesting

(04/12/1999; 23:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4618)

Some good news for all Goldhearts.

Just received an annual report from Anglogold, many beautiful pictures of Gold in every shape and form.
On page 38 is a picture of the new 10 Tola bars, five of them with Anglogolds Lion Logo etched on the front. Doesn't say whats on the back side. Here's the caption:

Anglogold is selling its Gold directly into Dubai in ten Tola bars with a purity of 99,99 per cent--with the Asian jewellery market as the intended customer.

My comments:Did some research, 10 Tola Bars weigh 3.746 ounces or 116.51183 Grams.(troy weight) Should be selling around $1200.00 at todays prices,plus markup.
Imagine if this was the Indian or Chinese currency of the future.............beesting

Richard, Oregon

(04/13/1999; 00:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4619)

Can't Sleep!

Well it's late or early depending on how you look at it. Oh, that ALSO and especially pertains too Gold ownership also!

Nice to see someone else here from Oregon. Welcome! Oregon is a Concealed Weapons Permit state and there are many, many around. State permits issued by the counties.

Well, back to catching up on my reading. Thanks to everyone on their wonderful post(s) with many ideas and insites you just can't buy. A Goldheart at heart . . . . Richard

SteveH

(04/13/1999; 04:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4620)

Richard, me neither

June gold now $284.50.

More from Dabchick on gold lending (leasing):

Date: Tue Apr 13 1999 05:30
Dabchick (@sam...your 17:32 yesterday re the relationship between the Lease rate and the Lending rate.) ID#258195:
Copyright � 1999 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sam, thank you for your response. You wrote:
"If the money rate is constant, then lease rates correlate directly with lending rates; i.e. the higher the lend rate, the higher the lease rate. Yes? Now, the money rate, relative to the lend rates, have been constant over the course of the period shown. This would seem to imply the lease rate spikes also inferred a lend rate spike, contrary to what you say. Is this analysis correct?"
Unless you mean that a lease rate spike UP infers a lend rate spike DOWN ( which I agree with ) , I have to say that, in my view, this analysis of yours is NOT correct. In fact, I think it is the opposite of correctness!! ..............As I said in my 16:43 yesterday, the formula is:
Money rate MINUS Lending rate equals Lease Rate.
That is to say, with the Money rate virtually a constant, if the Lending rate goes up, the Lease rate goes down, and vice versa. For examples, look at these data of 1-month annualised silver rates. ( I have chosen silver rather than gold because it is prone to more extreme movements than gold ) . The figures are the actual ones at the London close from the 15th day of each of the last 4 months:
Date--------------15 Dec----------15 Jan----------15 Feb-----------15 Mar 99
$LIBOR---------------5.59--------------4.94-------------4.94-----------------4.94
Silver Lending Rate----4.06-------------3.95-----------[-11.0]---------------1.25 ( Note minus sign for 15 Feb )
Silver Lease Rate------1.53------------ 0.99-----------15.94--------------- 7.44
As you know, the Lease Rate is obtained by deducting ( algebraically ) the Lending rate from the Money rate ( $LIBOR in these examples ) . That is to say, whenever the Lend rate goes up, the Lease rate goes down. And as it is an algebraic deduction, whenever the Lending rate is algebraically negative, as happens whenever you get Backwardation on the Futures markets like you did on 15th Feb, the Lease rate soars.
Don't forget that the Lending rate is virtually the same as the "Forward" rate. It is related directly to the gold futures markets ( such as the Comex ) . Whenever the Forward rate ( also called the Contango when it is positive ) goes up because the Futures markets such as Comex perceive that the future price of gold ( relative to spot ) ought to be higher, the Lending rate follows suit and goes up in line with the Forward rate.
I hope this all makes sense, but please say so if you disagree.
In its original usage, the term "Gold Lease rate" was first used to describe a financing operation which was advantageous to miners with proven reserves which they could lease out before they were mined, to get cheap finance to mine them.
Since that time, sloppy use of the word in circumstances where the use of the word LENDING is more appropriate has caused a lot of confusion. This confusion may well have been exploited by Alan Greenspan to further his own aims for his fiat dollars. IMHO.
Regards...........Dabchick

Richard640

(04/13/1999; 05:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4621)

gold calls

The 1999 December $390 gold call on the Comex has over 58,000 contracts of open interest. I have not seen more than 15 to 18K of o.i. in any call the last ten yrs. If it were investors hedging for the millenium you would think they would be in the year 2000 Feb.$400 calls selling for 40 & 50 cents an oz. The $390's go for 20 to 40 cents an oz. I hold 100 1999 Dec.$400 calls bought at 20 cents an oz. or $2000 and commission. If on a panic, gold hits $500 before Nov. 12th, I'll have a million dollar trade. That's better than LTCM leverage at 500 to one. I intend to keep a perpetual gold hedge like this on...after a 17 yr. bear mkt. gold's gotta go someday. If not I can write off half my losses so my net cost is a coupla G's a year for the cheapest, best risk/reward trade on the financial landscape today. Wanna think small-nothing wrong with that- for a big $400 or $500 and commissions you can buy 10 of the year 2000 Feb.$400 calls for $400 or $500 and comissions-thats a call on 1000oz. of gold at $400 until the 2nd Friday in January. $500 gold would give you $100,000 or 200 to one leverage. Afraid to lose all that big premium? Then be my guest and buy 1000 of the physical for $290,000. Until then, Richard P.S. see Don Wolanchuk's prediction on this web-site. He sees gold taking out the old high because of a burst of global prosperity. A great contrarian call and event, if to happen that way because we (that includes me, guys) all expect gold to zoom after a crash.

T. Remital

(04/13/1999; 06:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4622)

POP///

The bubble is about to burst...only a matter of days now.. They will all be heading to the
exit at the same time..Gold will prevail 10--20$ moves every day..CNBC will have egg on
it's face..won't know how to report this action..HANG ON!!!!

USAGOLD

(04/13/1999; 08:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4623)

Today's Gold Market Report: Traders Looking at Positive Technical Picture; Swiss Sales Not a Threat

MARKET UPDATE (4/13/99): Gold continued its uptrend this morning holding on to
gains in New York garnered overseas. Standard Bank of London reports Australian
producer buy-back in Hong Kong overnight. Gold stayed firm in London and the bullish
trend carried over to New York trading. Standard Charter says "Dealers were looking for a
major short covering rally following Friday's Commitment of Traders Report which
showed that as of April 6th the Funds holding record short positions of 91,690 contracts
(9.1 Mio oz), up 32,797 contracts (3.2 Mio oz) from the previous report two weeks
before."

The World Gold Council reported yesterday that "Widespread fears that Switzerland will
shortly start to sell large quantities of its gold are unfounded." The World Gold Council is
based in Switzerland. A proposal to sell roughly 1300 tons of gold will go to voters April
18. If approved the sale would be stretched over a decade long period so as not to disrupt
the market. At the same time there are major legislative hurdles that must be cleared before
the actual sales take place most notably the parliament must reach agreement as to how the
proceeds are to be spent, according to the World Gold Council's Gary Mead.

If you would like to receive a free copy of our widely circulated newsletter, News &
Views, please go to our ORDER FORM or contact Marie at 800-869-5115.

In Brief (4/13/99).....CPI came in .2% higher. Economists were expecting
.3%...........Serb troops moved into Albania overnight taking a border post and occupying
a village....The Globe and Mail ran a story on Royal Oak yesterday reporting that creditors
are fighting like "vultures over the corpse of the mining company." Concludes the report
"Royal Oak's common shareholders, meanwhile, will be left with little more than a
bloodstain where their former investment." As we have said many time on these pages,
whereas mining companies in some cases provide opportunity for stock investors, shares
are no substitute for hard metal, as Royal Oak shareholders can verify..............A judge
today gave Royal Oak five days to figure out a way to stay out of receivership when a
consortium of U.S. note holders ponied up an additional $2.1 million in loans to keep it
afloat...................Saudi Arabia told customers in Japan and South Korea that their oil
supplies would be cut in May. The International Energy Association that current oil stocks
of 500 million barrels would drop by 330 million barrels by the end of the
year.........Those comforting CPI numbers might become troublesome before fall
arrives...................That's it for today. Have good day, fellow goldmeisters. MK

NORTH OF 49

(04/13/1999; 09:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4624)

Goldfly

I, like you, was looking forward to a continum of my original conversation with the BNS (Bank of Nova Scotia) manager, however, he has been quite conspicuous by his absence since our Sunday encounter.
I should point out that his area of endeavor lies in a predominantly farming area, and to be real honest, he has had very little to get optimistic about lately. I hope to see him this afternoon, and maybe after a Molson Canadian (or two) over the back fence, we can arrive at a basis for his alarming reaction to Royal Oak.

No49

Aristotle

(04/13/1999; 10:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4625)

Stock vs Metal

MK, Your comment on mining companies vs. metal in today's market report was an important one. Being someone who has a share of mining stock that gives new meaning to the term 'worthless,' my heart goes out to everyone who has a stack of Royal Oak company paper. My growing cache of coins has no similar risk, and has become the foundation of my growing sense of independence and insight into the human condition/meaning of life. (The Goldhearts know exactly what I am referring to.)

So I'll echo MK's warning to anyone toying with investments in mining stocks. Be careful, and KNOW what it is you want. If you are hungry and in need of bread, you don't invest in General Mills as a substitute. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/13/1999; 10:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4626)

Ferguson sees progress on Y2K, but more needed

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990413/qc.html"I don't think...," he said.

Yep, that sounds reassuring enough for me and my family's well being!!

beesting

(04/13/1999; 12:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4627)

From Australia

http://www.brw.com.au/newsadmin/stories/brw/19990322/1628.htmA very good article. The author thinks the spot price of Gold is being controlled by the U.S. Federal Reserve System.

Is it???.........beesting

Aristotle

(04/13/1999; 13:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4628)

When the financial or stock markets get toppy and weak, pull out your PROP...prop...Propaganda!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990413/9f.htmlU.S. urges IMF gold sales to fund debt relief

Hey Townie, I "SCOOPED" you on this one!
They must feel that Stocks and Bonds are in for a test of confidence if they have to drag out this tired old spectre of 'news' to sully Gold's good shine.

Hey beesting, look at it this way...The Fed can't do anything about Gold, because Gold is Gold, immutable. But they can (and do) use every trick in the book to facilitate the continuing perception that the dollar is a viable form of money. And we must admit that they have succeeded admirably. But the beast grows so large it becomes unmanageable, and woe is he that failed to use those strong dollars to buy real things when they had a chance.

For anyone who wants to convert to real things and still maintain flexibility for future purchases, Gold fills the bill. You can't sell off a bit of your new car or land or house in order to purchace a jetski next summer. Gold stands ready to serve that purpose. Swapping Gold for dollars or euros or yen to make a purchase is no different than breaking a Hundred Dollar Bill at a bank before trying to shop at a candy store.

IMF and Gold...SHEEEEEESH! prop, prop, prop up the dollar... (everybody sing it!) prop, prop, propaganda!

beesting

(04/13/1999; 13:06:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4629)

New news release on IMF Gold sales.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990413/9f.htmlWho or what is responsible for these news releases??? ......beesting

beesting

(04/13/1999; 13:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4630)

To ARISTOTLE

SCOOPED me on it,but 2 heads working together is better than one, IMHO.......beesting

TownCrier

(04/13/1999; 13:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4631)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Near Steady-higher; Cot Helping Gold

New York-April 13-FWN--For the second straight day,
gold futures were lifted here by improved sentiment
because of the huge net-short position of the funds revealed
in the most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) Report,
sources here said.
The rest of the precious metals complex finished with
little change, although silver had to recover from early
fund selling.
June gold added $1.10 to settle at $285.60.
Over the last couple of days, traders and analysts have
been pointing to the COT report released late Friday, which
showed funds were short a net 88,363 contracts.
"The path of least resistance is to the upside near
term, because of Friday's Commitment of Traders Report,"
said Dave Rinehimer, head of futures research at Salomon
Smith Barney. "That's helped the market stabilize a bit and
reduce selling pressure.
"After the recovery we've seen from the $280 level,
we're closer to hitting buy stops to the upside than to sell
stops on the downside," he said.
Buy stops could be activated if the June futures can
get through resistance around $287.50, he commented. Support
for the June contract was put at $282.70.
Overall, said Rinehimer, he views the move in gold as
"a correction after the downmove to the $280 area."
He added that the recent fall to just below $280 was
probably exaggerated, occurring after the U.S. and French
presidents suggested International Monetary Fund gold sales
should be considered to help fund debt relief to poor
countries, and due to worries that more central banks may
seek gold sales since the Swiss are pursuing a referendum to
do so.
"Down in the low $280s, we've seen some pretty good
demand emerge," said Rinehimer. "That should continue to be
the case, unless we see the dollar strengthen significantly."
May silver settled with a 1-cent gain to $4.9050,
after it initially fell to a low for the year of$4.8250.
"It couldn't get much above the $5 level yesterday, and
that brought in some selling pressure," said Rinehimer. As
did traders earlier today, he reported some fund selling has
occurred.
"It's basically struggling to stabilize a bit. The
downside potential from where we're at will likely hinge on
demand from India and whether these lower prices stimulate
some buying interest.
"There doesn't seem to be concerns about near-term
supply tightness. I think we'll continue to oscillate around
this $5 level," he said.
"Possibly, the firmness in commodity prices might be
helping silver a bit today, although we're certainly not
making any big moves in the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau
index)," he added.
The CRB index is currently up 0.57 point at 189.08.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

Aristotle

(04/13/1999; 13:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4632)

news releases

beesting, I imagine that just as every company has a PR (public relations) division, the various government agencies, the Fed, etc, all have PR people that simply issue the desired Press Releases as necessary for the intended effect. Or else they call the Reuters newsdesk and ask for an eager reporter looking for his or her daily quota of news. Then they proceed to fill the reporter's head with the daily dose of propaganda.

If the government suddenly started printing red money to circulate along side the dollar, or if some start-up regime started floating its own currency into your world of daily transactions, would you ever accept one as payment? So why do you accept the dollar, which is an upstart that has supplanted the Gold and silver money required by our Constitution?
Oh, THAT's right...because you all have debts to pay that require these same dollars. That is understandable and forgivable.
But when you finally manage to claw your way out of debt, don't make yourself a slave to a currency unit that no more than a fragile fiat dollar, easily manipulated by the issuing party to THEIR advantage over yours. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/13/1999; 14:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4633)

U.S. Treasuries down late in session

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990413/bb0.htmlBad news regarding some Japanese buyers... Remember, you heard it here first.

Magician

(04/13/1999; 15:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4634)

Help break the house of cards!

Is RYO problems a sign of a soft underbelly in gold market soon to be gutted by greedy creditors almost as prepared to eat their young?

I think that mining companies are going to be the dominoes to tumble at the behest of world hegemony, if they do not collectively pursue a campaign of counterpropaganda. Disseminating the following information could possibly be a real scare to a market starved for real information.

It seems to me that there is still an over supply problem extant on gold markets somewhere. It is in mine co interests to cut down on production, preserve capital and assets. Why operate a mine as the price of the stuff heads down?

Why in this wired world can't a new consortium of mining co's be formed to pass quotas on production everywhere?
The mere threat is bound to produce the desired effect.

Send this off to your favorite mining interest.

beesting

(04/13/1999; 15:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4635)

Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt---by-Tennessee Ernie Ford.

A great song many years ago.
This may be old news, but it was new to me.
Went into the local supermarket, bought groceries and decided to pay by credit card.The clerk asked,debit or credit? I said credit.
Apparently, now in place of food stamps(U.S.Government issued vouchers for food)[for all who don't live in the U.S.] the U.S. Government has issued plastic cards which suffice for fiat dollars towards the purchase of food items only.Low income people qualify.
The Government reimburses the store owner in fiat dollars for the cost of the food sold in fiat dollars, collected from,you know who, -the U.S. Taxpayer-.
Now the question is; Can food be eaten faster than fiat dollars be created? I saw lines of what looked like heavy eaters in the supermarket.

Lets jump to U.S. Farmers; unable to make a decent living at what may be the most important occupation on the planet(producing food)because of prices set in the food futures markets(a paper market). Does this sound familiar to Gold producers and others in production industries?
Back to the Farmers, so that the farmer doesn't give up farming(and seek employment on Wall Street) the U.S. Government "subsidizes"(big word for gives taxpayer money) Farmers, artificially keeping U.S. food prices down at the local supermarket.(The U.S.enjoys the cheapest food prices in the world,beleive it or not.)

All this Government spending of taxpayer fiat dollars gives the impression(to the rest of the world) that quality of life is better in the U.S. So what happens? The workers of the world invest in U.S. stockmarkets, sending stock prices ever higher.
The U.S. taxpayer, stuck between a rock and a hardplace!

Ask yourself this question; Upon my death'should I burden my heirs(loved ones) with my own debt plus unpayable Government debt, or a secret stash of physical Gold hidden from Government agents prying fingers..........beesting

Aristotle

(04/13/1999; 15:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4636)

A simple parallel to help understand the War against Yugoslavia

Somebody please identify if this has a substantial error, and modify as necessary.

In this parallel, Canadians will represent Albanians, and USA will represent Yugoslav, while Kansas shall represent Kosovo. (This is not an ethnic slight. I have Canadian friends that I love dearly, and have friends--maybe a relative or two--in Kansas. I am not aware of what makeup my group of friends' ancestries would entail in regard to Yogoslav or Albanian...I'm sure there is a mixture of both.)

Imagine that over the years a large group of ethnic Canadians have settled in Kansas. Over time, they come to feel that the system of government in the USA is not to their liking, and they yearn for their independence. Some of the bolder Canadians form a Kansas Liberation Army (known as the KLA) and have frequent clashes with the Kansas State patrolmen, sheriffs, and city policemen. Some altercations are worse than others, and there are ocassional shootouts and death.

A precipitating event occurs when the KLA engages in a surprise attack on a county sheriff's department, killing the sheriff and deputies. The law enforcement community is incensed, and crack down on a village that is known to be an operational base for the KLA. In their anger, they go overboard and kill every single Canadian found in the village. Of course, the actual details of the slaughter are not available for further judgement.

This gets international press, and the law enforcement agents of Kansas (sanctioned by the USA) look like a bunch of thugs (perhaps justifiably) in the eyes of the world. Euroland says enough is enough, and threatens airstrikes unless the USA can come to peaceful terms with Kansas!

At a fancy retreat held in France, one side or the other balks at various attempts at compromise, and the USA gets painted in the role of 'Bad Guy.' As the attacks continue back and forth between the Kansas ethnic Canadians who initiated the Kansas Liberation Army (KLA) on one side versus the law enforcement officials and now National Guard on the other, there are deaths on both sides. The Canadians locally perceived as the source of the problem in this movement to liberate Kansas are intimidated by the police and national guard to give it up or (preferably) go back to Canada. The bands of KLA, when found, are usually wiped out, causing their mothers and wives much weeping of tears. NAturally, you can imagine the general animosity this breeds among American Kansans and ethnic Canadian Kansans who founded the KLA.

In all of this, the leader of the USA gains the international reputation of Adolph Hitler while euroland and NATO tries to foster popular support to launch airstrikes against the USA for its atrocities. Sure enough, the trigger happy NATO commanders start bombing all of the known headquartes of the Kansas state patrol, sheriffs, police, and national guard. Then they escalate their bombing to include Strategic Air Command (SAC) in Omaha, other significant USA military bases, and finally federal buildings in Oklahoma City, Denver, Portland, and ultimately Washington D.C.

NATO treatens to have the USA president and various military leaders brought up on charges of War Crimes. Then, the airstrikes are raised to a new level. While USA military men sit in their own USA tanks, manuevering on their own USA soil, minding their own USA business, NATO sends in some ugly planes to kill those tanks and their young contents...ala "Saving Private Ryan."

Meanwhile, Kansas has become a very unpleasant place to be, not only for the National Guard, but for ALL residents, INCLUDING the ethnic Canadians who had no interest whatsoever with a liberation movement or the KLA in the first place! As these people flee to safer land, the world media takes notice and casts further blame for this hardship on the USA and its leader. So the international resolve is strengthened, and the bombing continues.

Now let's unwind the parallel and ask the question, "What business does USA-led NATO have bombing Yugoslavia over the clashes that have resulted between its internal peace-keeping military forces and the ethnic Albanian-led Kosovo Liberation Army???!!
Sure, the clashes have been brutal and retaliations have been dire, but C'mon!! This is NATO action is totally out of line. Shouldn't international forces instead be assisting in the apprehension and punishment of the KLA, not the "parent nation" that is threatened by the KLA acts of violence? And then conduct investigations into the police brutality directed at innocent civilians, whether Albanian or otherwise.

Perhaps the gangs in Los Angeles could learn a lesson from this...band together into a Liberation Army and seek international assistance on the grounds of police brutality and ethnic cleansing. Gimme a break! NATO and the USA is WAY over the line on this one...or else I have my story wrong. Which is it?

And while my parallel is subject to debate, this final thought is not. Fiat money was created, and is ideally suited for exactly these imprudent government-sanctioned endeavors. No one would part with their hard-earned Gold to fund such foolishness. Show your moral character by making that fiat money disappear--pay off loans, withdraw cash from banks, and swap the bulk of it for Gold. Enough is enough. ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/13/1999; 16:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 4637)

extra gold for the magician

I totally agree with your comments about the need for counterpropaganda, though perhaps we could call our side of the story simply "The Truth."

You suggested the possibility of using production cuts (such as OPEC tries to do off and on). I think that speaks to a broader issue, and that is the propagandists misrepresentation that there is a huge oversupply of Gold in the world, notably, the Central Bank reserves that "overhang" the market.

Let's begin our campaign for The Truth right now. First of all, these are BANKS. They do not hold that Gold as warehouse inventory for the future fabrication of jewelry. They hold it because it is internationally recognized and used as money.

Further, on the issue of oversupply...
Picture an olympic size swimming pool filled with cash, and picture a small pail of water sitting next to it. The pail of water represents all of the Gold that has ever been mined in the history of the world, and the pool of cash represents, obviously, the cash. Annual mining of new Gold is nothing more than an eyedropper amount. It does nothing to alter the reality of the huge CASH OVERHANG compared to the amount of REAL MONEY (Gold) that is in the world. If the reality cannot be changed, then obviously we must target the perception. "Counterpropaganda" as you call it. "The Truth" as I call it. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/13/1999; 16:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4638)

Bill Gates becomes first man to top $100bn

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/your_money/newsid_314000/314426.stmGates made about $4,566,000 for every hour of the past year.
Think about this: What would this man be willing to pay to have his lawn mowed? At $4,566,000/hour income, the sky is the limit if he doesn't want to do it himself. How much gold would he pay for the same job? Now think about your government along these same lines...

TownCrier

(04/13/1999; 16:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4639)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold up $1.1 on dealer buying

By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Washington--Apr 13--COMEX Jun gold futures settled up $1.10 at $285.60 per
ounce on dealer buying. Traders said gold technically looks good but lacks the
follow-through to bring it back up to $290.
Traders said Jun gold continued to react to Friday's COMEX commitments of
traders data that showed short positions increased over 1 million ounces to
9,771,300 ounces from Mar 30 to Apr 6. "That is still helping to fuel this boost
higher," one trader said.
Market players said they anticipate Jun remaining rangebound at $284-286 in
the near-term but expect it to reach $290 in the next few weeks. "If we can
close above $287, then we should be able to hit $290; and then if we can get to
$296, maybe we'll get to $300," one trader said.
However, another trader held a more bearish picture of the near-term market:
"It's hard to get too excited even though it's up. Gold really lacks
follow-through. There aren't enough players to get it going."
In the news, proposals from various G7 countries for financing debt relief
for the world's poorest countries need further details to more the issue
forward, William Schuerch, US Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for
International Development, Debt and Environmental Policy said today (Story
.25341).
The Clinton administration has proposed the International Monetary Fund sell
as much as 10 million ounces of its gold reserves to fund its debt relief
program for poor countries.
US law requires congressional approval of IMF gold sales if the proceeds
would benefit a specific group of countries.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

THX-1138

(04/13/1999; 17:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4640)

CNBC GOLD/SILVER REPORT

Was watching CNBC and they had a report about people purchasing Gold and Silver coins and stocking up on canned foods for Y2K. Then they trotted out some financial guy who basically said that buying precious metals was foolish.
My first thought was "Great another source for GATA to use after the story of US FED asking for IMF sales today."

(04/13/1999; 17:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4641)

Aristotle

http://www.jbs.org/tna/1999/03-15-99/kosovo.htmYour analogy of the war in Kosovo is consistent with my understanding. The only thing I might add is the KLA has ties to terrorists and is supported with monies from narcotics deals according to the above post. It all sets a very bad precedent.

THX-1138

(04/13/1999; 17:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4642)

Bill Gates and his fortune

What would happen if Bill Gates decided to purchase all the Gold in the COMEX warehouse? It looks to me like it would take less than 1% of his fortune to do it.

USAGOLD

(04/13/1999; 18:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4643)

A short note on IMF gold sales...

If the International Monetary Fund were to sell all of its gold -- 103 million ounces or 3200 tons -- it would raise about $30 billion to "help emerging countries with their debt problem." The Brazilian bailout late last year was $42 billion. Articles I have read state that Brazil will be faced with the prospect of $100 billion in international loans coming due this year. And this is just one country.
In other words, the 300 tons the Clinton administration wants to sell is a drop in proverbial bucket.

I challenge this FORUM to dig into your own files and post your own examples of debts due this year.

Gandalf the White

(04/13/1999; 18:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4644)

Debts due 4/15/99

The Wiz owes his Uncle Sam mucho of them dead Presidents on or before 4/15/99 ! Was that what you were thinking of MK?
<;-)

(04/13/1999; 19:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4645)

Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - we'll have to start the 'Aristotle's Gun and Pawn' chain come the depression. We could deal in real things, eh?

You wrote in part;

'Oh, THAT's right...because you all have debts to pay that require these same dollars. That is
understandable and forgivable.
But when you finally manage to claw your way out of debt, don't make yourself a slave to a currency
unit that no more than a fragile fiat dollar, easily manipulated by the issuing party to THEIR
advantage over yours.'

Yes, if people want to get rid of this bunch all they need to do is stop borrowing money. Like magic, they'll disappear! It's still a free market.

ET

beesting

(04/13/1999; 19:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4646)

Personal debt

As Gandalf just stated we owe a pile of dead presidents,due to an unexpected change in earnings for 1998.
Paying with credit card! Work twice as hard,to enjoy fruits of labor less.
TAXATION THE ROOT OF ALL EVIL!!!........beesting

(04/13/1999; 19:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4647)

Aristotle

Hey Aristotle - your Kosovo comments are indeed on the money. I do reside in Kansas and so far haven't seen many Canadians around. I'll keep my eyes open.

You wrote in part;

'And while my parallel is subject to debate, this final thought is not. Fiat money was created, and is
ideally suited for exactly these imprudent government-sanctioned endeavors. No one would part
with their hard-earned Gold to fund such foolishness. Show your moral character by making that fiat
money disappear--pay off loans, withdraw cash from banks, and swap the bulk of it for Gold.
Enough is enough.'

Yes, if one had to swap many ounces of gold for a cruise missile, I doubt we would see this happening at all. Great post.

ET

beesting

(04/13/1999; 20:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4648)

Fantasy Land.

What I would like to do(if I'm able to) is, overpay enough taxes in 1999 to get a tax refund in 2000,than demand payment in Gold or Silver as per:

Constitution of the United States:
Article. I.
Section. 10.
make any Thing but Gold and Silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; (capital letters are included in my copy of the Constitution)

Than if the Government refuses to pay my refund(a Government debt) in anything but Gold or Silver,drag the Government into court on the grounds that they have violated the Constitution........Hey, if we get about a million or more people doing this do you think it would work?........beesting

NORTH OF 49

(04/13/1999; 21:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4649)

Bank of Nova Scotia, Royal Oak, 5 Mill in Gold Etc, Etc

Goldfly/USAGOLD
I find myself in somewhat of a compromising situation (like that's never happened before!!). After talking with my Bk of NS Mgr neighbour this afternoon, I have determined that we have a new "lurker", compliments of the hard copy that I handed over the fence last Sunday. So, now I find myself commited to follow up on a previous post, but having the subject of that post looking over my shoulder (if so--Hi TH--by the way lardass, it wasn't me that backed over your garbage can last night!) Fortunately, I don't have any loans under his authority!
Seriously though, I asked him if he wouldn't mind joining in on the FORUM, as an experienced player in this fiat $ business, but he felt it would be inapporpriate to do so. Even after I explained that he could submit posts as Joe Smutz from Timbuctoo, he still felt it would compromise his integrity--classy guy.
To the core. He indicated that his initial concern was basically that when gold starts to pull headlines (especially when a national bank has to come up with it to cover a bad loan) it tends to pull the increasing number of "nervous nellies" out of equities to the old standby hedge--you guessed it--gold. He is very nervous of this 10,000 plus DJIA--in his words--"it's the most valuable piece of air on the planet". He personally has most of his retirement tied up in stocks--primarily BNS, and a chunk of stock options of the same origin (I'm reading this into the conversation--my bank manager just isn't going to reconcile over our fence!!). If the Dow pops--so goes the TSE.
As far as Royal Oak goes, evidently there is a food fight going on between Trilon Financial, who feel their first loss is likely to be their smallest loss (and wants a receiver and an auctioneer in there NOW) AND a group of American Bond holders who still hold out a glimmer of resurecting whats left of RO. No matter the outcome, he claims the lent (leased--whatever) gold, most likely never physically left the vaults of the lending CB--it's all just a paper transaction. He said "we'll just eat the paper--it's happened before, it'll probably happen again', how appetizing!!
MK--He was very impressed with your procedural observations--his comment--"the guy knows his stuff".

No49

SteveH

(04/13/1999; 21:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4650)

Peter, Aristotle, USA, the rest of you...are you awake...

http://business.fortunecity.com/wrigley/585/Markets/COT.htm#GoldBiggest COT long of last two years. Chart shows it clear as a bell. Study and learn, near perfect inverse relationship. That means it won't be long for a drive north.

Jade

(04/13/1999; 21:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4651)

On the other side of the World.

The dollar is under pressure again tonight against the yen, falling close to 119. The globex is down some tonight but nowhere near Sunday night. If we open up on the upside, we could head down again and open the breach slightly more.

As to Gold, the manipulation of the price should be considered "High Treason". The rise in price we know that should be takeing place right now, would stand as a warning of a great storm approaching. Without this storm warning, a vast number will no doubt die a slow finanical death due to the tremendous greed of just a few. I guess history always repeats itself. And I'll tell you....I have lots of GOLD.

Goldfly

(04/13/1999; 22:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4652)

Uh-oh... Now the POG is going to drop 15 points tomorrow

http://www.cnn.com/NATURE/9904/13/grabbing.algae.ap/
"We have had some discussions with gold mining companies for biomining gold out of ore"

They are just pulling out ALL the stops, aren't they?

GF

Arizona Hiker

(04/13/1999; 22:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4653)

Odds and Ends

First...might be nice to acknowledge that those COT charts are courtesy of a fellow who goes by the name of "Sharefin"... a frequent poster on KITCO and creator of a website which probably has more precious metal links than available anywhere else. definitely worth a look-see.

Second... according to figures available on the RJ Gold site, the average low price for gold during the calendar year (since 1986) is $344. The average price $375.
The average yearly price range $69.00

This year's low has been $278. Add $69.00 and you get to $347... interesting right about at the average low. To get to that point from here would require a move of approximately $62.00 or 21.7%

with leverage of at approximately 3.5 times in the senior mining stocks, a 21.7% move in physical gold should move a stock like NEM approximately 76%.

Conclusion... first, notice how far south we are of even the average low price, since '86. second, a climb back to the low would still be quite significant for both physical gold and the mining shares at this juncture.

re: those COT charts... when looking at those charts, notice that imbalances on the long side did not always result in robust rallies in physical. and recall that a few weeks back we had an imbalance to the buy side which was erased with a paltry rally.

I want a rally too...but careful about what is going to propel it. I do find it interesting, however, that the commercials are loading up ahead of the swiss referendum... a good sign.

final thought... for Aristotle... man, you are really stretching. i have a feeling that your conclusions are easier to reach from your easy chair, in the protected confines of the U. S. of A. If you, or your relatives were in Kosovo, perhaps you would find it in your heart to reach a much different conclusion, yes?

The Stranger

(04/13/1999; 23:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4654)

Morgan Stanley Gold Mining Conference

I just got in from New York where I attended the Morgan Stanley Gold Mining Conference. I had a chance to hear and ask questions of upper-management from Barrick, Newmont, Placer Dome and several others. Also present were M.Stanley prognosticators. All in all, it was a fascinating meeting. I am exhausted right now, but I will try to post some of what I learned in the next day or so.

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 00:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4655)

Arizona Hiker

Depends. What if they were ethnic Kosovars? Yugoslav to the core? etc...

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 00:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4656)

Arizona Hiker--part II

I fear that the brevity of that last post may give a false impression that I am angry or otherwise not giving you question full consideration. Not at all.

Currently there are three Americans who were minding their own business on logistical operations ouside of Kosovo (in Macedonia?) when they got lost(?) and subsequently captured by Yugoslavian forces. The got beat up, and everyone here fears for their lives...to the extent that our President got on national TV to say that they were innocent of any possible charges against them, and they had best be freed unharmed OR ELSE. Turn the page...
Now we have a passenger train full of Yugoslavs minding their own business on their own soil when NATO airstrikes succeed in blowing the thing and its precious contents right off the rails. Where was their equal time? Where was their Presidential appeal for good treatment on the basis of innocence? It would seem that on the right hand we hold life precious, and on the left, we can dismiss losses as a consequence of war...as long as those innocent losses are on the other side.

As I was very careful to point out in my parallel story, I'm not claiming to have shown the true intricacies of the conflict, and my story remains open to modification by others to better help us all grasp the major subplots and understand the perspective of the parties involved. Clearly, the USA and NATO are properly represented in the role of a most unwelcome outsider. If success is achieved in the *liberation* of Kosovo under NATO supervision and occupation, how long will it be before the KLA wages war against the occupying NATO forces to drive them out and thus complete the Liberation? Why don't we hear about ethnic Kosovars seeking to liberate Kosovo?

I am still searching for these answers, and the general media is of no help whatsoever.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 01:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4657)

Hear ye! Hear ye!

http://www.usagold.com/SwissGoldWGC.htmlNow appearing for your edification at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinion, "Switzerland's Gold." In this commentary by the World Gold Council, the upcoming vote for the consitutional referendum is carefully explained insofar as it affects the fate of the national gold reserves.

Click on the link above, or take the scenic route via the USAGOLD HomePage to the Gilded Opinion.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 01:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4658)

Banks Undergo 'Time Travel' for Y2K

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990414/y2k_banks_1.htmlRead between the li(n)es

Oregon Geezer

(04/14/1999; 03:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4659)

India may be in trouble

I've seen any number of references to India and gold here. From the BBC today it appears that the Indian government may be in big trouble as a major player in the collation may withdraw its support and thus cause a crisis in the 13-month old government. What this will do to their gold reserves and plans I have no idea. Better minds than mine may have the answer.

Oregon Geezer

(04/14/1999; 03:42:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4660)

To beesting re: message #4648

Gumment folk not following the provisions of the Constitution? Why, I never heard of such a thing. This must be something new, right? (grin)

SteveH

(04/14/1999; 04:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4661)

June gold...

$285.50, asking $286.00. Slow rise in the dawn.

Turning, for them who pass, the common dust
Of servile opportunity to gold.
Desultory Stanza.

William Wordsworth 1770-1850

(04/14/1999; 05:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4662)

The Mine in Kosovo

http://www.sightings.com/politics2/motive.htm
Here is a NY Times article and some commentary concerning the reason for the war in the Balkans.

ET

(04/14/1999; 05:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4663)

Stratfor's Latest Asian Analysis

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/041299.asp
Here is the current analysis from Stratfor concerning Asia and the relationships emerging following the economic collapse.

ET

(04/14/1999; 07:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4664)

Y2K and Credit Card Purchases

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990414_xex_banks_seizin.shtml
Banks are now harassing y2k suppliers via their credit card payment systems. I suppose precious metal dealers will be the next targets.

ET

USAGOLD

(04/14/1999; 09:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4665)

Today's Gold Market Report: Sideways Action; Short Covering Potential

MARKET UPDATE (4/14/99): Gold was sideways this morning in New York with the
potential for high volume short covering still underscoring market activity. Reuters reports
this morning that hedge and commodity funds are short 9.16 million ounces -- an all-time
high position that will need to be covered at some point. Rumblings out the Clinton
administration yesterday about IMF gold sales were largely ignored by the gold market. If
the International Monetary Fund were to sell all of its gold -- 103 million ounces or 3200
tons -- the proceeds would amount to about $30 billion at current prices. The Brazilian
bailout late last year amounted to $42 billion -- and that was only one of many countries in
desperate financial straits. As Congressional hearings begin on Capitol Hill, many in the
Congress are wondering just how effective gold sales would be in attacking the emerging
debt problem. There will also be questions how these sales will effect third world countries
dependent on gold exports like South Africa.

If you would like to receive a free copy of our widely circulated newsletter, News &
Views, please go to our ORDER FORM or contact Marie at 800-869-5115.

In Brief (4/14/99)....The IMF issued a warning about the state of affairs in Indonesia
where the economy continues to deteriorate saying the country faces "considerable
risks"................ Bank of Japan voted yesterday to maintain its low interest rate
policy......London Evening Standard: "Doom and gloom have been replaced on the
corporate earnings front by good and getting better as American investors await a blizzard
of earnings beginning this week with anticipation that the numbers will justify stratospheric
share prices. US companies performed dismally in 1998. Overall, corporate profits fell by
more than 2%. Earnings for the biggest Fortune 500 outfits were down. Operating profits
for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 were weaker than overall economic
growth.".............Overheard in line to get a burrito yesterday for lunch: "Yea, I just come
down here and trade all day. I wake up at 7:15 and get the CNBC picks of the day and I
buy them. Then I come down here, park myself in front in front of the screen and
watch.".........Pretty cool. Why work for a living when you can play the markets all the
day in this hardly-ever- a-down-day fantasy land where the need for expertise is
non-existent? Like falling off a log......................... Drudge Reports that the Los
Angeles is preparing a front page story that U.S. bombs hit a bus station and children's
playground....................Reuters reports: "Russian bank Rossiisky Kredit has failed to
pay more than $10 million of Eurobond interest that fell due on March 29, bondholders in
London said on Friday. "........In another Reuters report this morning, Japanese life
insurance companies are now shunning foreign currency bonds thus boosting the yen....As
we go to fetch this over the yen is up strong in today's early going......That's it for today,
fellow meisters. MK

Arizona Hiker

(04/14/1999; 10:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4666)

Response to Aristotle

Greetings...

First, a little background. I served in the U.S. Marine Corps and currently work for a major defense contractor. It might surprise folks to learn, then, that I am not a "hawk."

As someone once said, "No one prays for peace more than a soldier." There is a lot of truth to that.

My maternal grandfather...the man I most admire...was a Prisoner of War for 3 years. All of my grandparents fled a Europe in chaos, arrived in the U.S. with basically nothing and were happy for the chance to have their children live the American dream. They all became flag waving patriots.

The situation in the Balkans is, admittedly, extremely complex. Granted, one has to be careful about conclusions you reach on the basis of media reports...even those obtained by a free press.

I consider the soldiers prisoners of war. To demand their release was to simply play to the camera -- but do not let it obscure the primary issues. The civilians who are losing their lives (on the train or elsewhere) -- it is a terrible tragedy. I mourn their passing as much as I mourn the plight of innocent civilians in kosovo.

For better or worse now, we are involved in the conflict and many innocent lives are at stake. Very few of those who are paying the highest price have anything to do with the KLA (just as few of those who pay the price in Ireland have anything to do with the IRA).

There are many ways to handle disagreements among people. The Yugoslavian response in Kosovo is outrageous and IMHO inhumane.

Certainly reasonable people can disagree on many issues related to this conflict. But I find your "Kansas" commentary very fast and loose and it is the kind of thing I here from a lot of folks here living the good life.

"Gee, they were terrorists anyway...why don't we just ignore it and get back to watching the markets, playing on the internet and shopping for that new SUV."

I would feel the same way I do if there were half a million Iranians or Yugoslavians or Chinese living out in the elements without food. They need our help and I, for one, am happy to extend it to them.

Let history judge whether Mr. Clinton's actions escalated the conflict or the tragedy. Right now, they need help.

Peter Asher

(04/14/1999; 10:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4667)

Arizona Hiker

That sums it up just fine. How 'bought you and I get some of those tape watchers to cover our Mortgages etc. and we go over there and build some tent cities or whatever.

Peter Asher

(04/14/1999; 11:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4668)

Crier, Michael, Steve,

Anyone know if this Gold tank is news related?

The Invisible Hand

(04/14/1999; 11:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4669)

In Brief (4/14/99)

http://www.usagold.comAfter having given the facts as follows:

buy them. Then I come down here, park myself in front in front of the screen and watch.>,

In Brief (4/14/99) commented as follows:

If I may play the devil's advocate, can anybody explain to me what kind of expertise you need to buy one ounce gold coins?

In his Welcome message Gandalf the White speculated on 4/11/99 that I was a Chartist and that I used the "box of one $" on the Gold charts. Gandalf went on to ask, in the event that this was the case, what I saw in my charts. My use of box was what I think to be the slang for dollar, my appologies for this. I don't know what a Chartist is. If Chartist has something to do with past performance of an investment, let me tell you that my first teacher in the investment world was Harry Browne who taught that past performance is no guide to future performance. My present teacher, Doug Casey, seems to have 'vaguely' similar views. My interest in gold is that it provides a standard for human behaviour. Is that yearning for a standard an expertise? Perhaps!

The Invisible Hand

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 11:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4670)

Thoughts for Arizona

Thanks for your elaboration, but from your response I am no closer to enlightenment on the need for outside military strikes against Yugoslavia. I am, however, aware that you and I have much in common. My immediate family can lay claim to two proud Marines. Further, I need look no further than my own close realtives to see firsthand the plight of innocents being driven out of their homes and country as refugees fearing for their lives--two losing theirs.

Given that, one might think I would tend to align my sympathies with the refugee side of any conflict. I'm not that shallow. Given enough information, I can draw a conclusion and form an opinion, but even then it is not one carved in stone.

Only this past week have I felt comfortable enough in my easy-chair with the gathered information to judge whether NATO should be striking Yugoslavia. They should not. As to who are the more culpable in bringing about the pre-strike bloodshed, KLA or police forces, the jury is still out. Yesterday JA posted an article that does not paint the KLA in very favorable light. That is a side you do not see in the popular media.

Bombing Yugoslavia--destroying a nation's infrastructure and some of its citizens lives--is a desparate act by desparate people. To do it under the guise of compassion humanitarianism speaks of hypocracy in a larger degree than I would care to admit is possible by our country. I'm sure Oregon Geezer would tell me to cease being so naive.

You said in your concluding remarks, "Let history judge whether Mr. Clinton's actions escalated the conflict or the tragedy. Right now, they need help." Isn't that a better example of "fast and loose" positions? The judgement by historians is of little comfort to those killed or displaced on all sides by the NATO strikes. "Right now, they need our help." We have much in common, my Arizona friend, and with this I DO agree. Help IS in order. But bombs do not help in this case.

It would be a bad turn of events to let such an exceptional Gold discussion forum depart significantly from the subject of Gold. I don't think we gain much here by choosing sides or casting blame. Discussions of duration and possibility for escalation are appropriate, as such a destabilizing event as War tends to take its toll on currencies. My original post was primarily intended (however "fast and loose" it may have been) to help set the general understanding of the broad issues. All knights were invited to supplement or correct as necessary. With better understanding, we could then anticipate or speculate, "whither Gold?" For the time, I stand on my original concluding remarks. 'And while my parallel is subject to debate, this final thought is not. Fiat money was created, and is ideally suited for exactly these imprudent government-sanctioned endeavors. No one would part with their hard-earned Gold to fund such foolishness. Show your moral character by making that fiat money disappear--pay off loans, withdraw cash from banks, and swap the bulk of it for Gold. Enough is enough.' ---Aristotle

YGM

(04/14/1999; 11:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4671)

Peter Asher

http://www.webpal.org/Gas.htm Peter, probably because of the news that Germany has
a peace plan for Kosova. War won't make Au go up, but
lack of one is a good excuse for it to go down. It's just
another one of the driven spikes in the Hedge Funds
coffin and personally I've learned to ignore them and stay
very focused on the bigger picture and also on the serious
newer revelations on Y2K. Thanks to this forum and Gold
Eagle I might add for this focus. Here is a link NOT to be
ignored on Y2K. Regards: YGM

jinx44

(04/14/1999; 12:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4672)

Jinx to Hiker---Keep walking!

You seem to have swallowed the party line in one gulp and the hook is protruding at the other end. Don't bomb on Ramadan but go ahead on Orthodox Easter? Have you read about the Trpca mining complex in Kosovo? It's only worth $1.5 trillion to the victor. That couldn't be why NATO is making an illegal undeclared war on the Serbs, could it?? Of course not. Where was WJC in 1993 when the Serbs were being cleansed? They weren't worth $1.5 trillion, so fugedaboudit, right?? You are being sheared by the Sheares of all independant thought and action. You are working for their war machine and seem to make no apologies. You are just the kind of robot they need. Have you paid your taxes on time?? I hope you don't live in Tucson.

jinx44

(04/14/1999; 12:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4673)

Aristotle and the KLA

Reference your KLA comment---. "Yesterday JA posted an article that does not paint the KLA in very favorable light. That is a side you do not see in the popular media."

Our ever prescient Dept of State declared the KLA a fundamentalist islamic narco-terrorist group 2 years ago. Now we are on their side? NATO should be bombing DC instead.

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 12:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4674)

Answer for the Invisible Hand

Your question--"can anybody explain to me what kind of expertise you need to buy one ounce gold coins?"

The expertise required is akin to what is needed by a person driving a car in which he is unaware that the fuel gage is broken with the needle stuck permanently on full.

The person must recognize that after many miles, something is amiss, and have the understanding that the car is destined to run out of fuel at some unknowable point in the near future.

How much expertise is needed to stop for gas while the car engine is still running? The answer to that is exactly how much expertise is also needed to buy Gold coins. ---Aristotle

Arizona Hiker

(04/14/1999; 12:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4675)

Hello Jinx

I am being "sheared of all independent thought and action..." yes, that is clearly why I am a gold-bug, right? I can see that you are all for independent thought and action, so long as it does not conflict with your own thoughts on a subject.

As I said, the issue is complex and reasonable people can disagree on many of the issues surrounding the conflict.

You sound like you are hunkered down in the bunker... safe from those in the government and media who are constantly at work plotting their next conspiracy. So many conspiracies...so little time.

You and Mr. Murphy, fighting the last good fight. Making the world safe for us "sheep."

BTW,,, keep ranting and raving in your posts. It makes your arguments so much more powerful.

Arizona Hiker

(04/14/1999; 13:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4676)

Aristotle

We agree then, to disagree. That is cool. I bid you peace.

A little aside regarding today's gold/share market:
The price action today in RANGY illustrates why it can be useful to hold mining shares in addition to physical metal.
Just an oberservation.
Interesting too to see the downdraft in the NASDAQ and the upside in the narrow list of DJIA stocks. The narrow list--always the last to peak and the last to crash. Shouldn't be long now.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 13:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4677)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Lower; Imf News, Tech. Weakness Hurt Gold

New York-April 14-FWN--Renewed worries about
International Monetary Fund (IMF) sales of gold sent
prices of the yellow metal lower here today, when the
initial downward move triggered technical selling, sources
said. Other precious metals followed gold lower.
As gold prices fell, traders and analysts cited
comments from an IMF official saying the prospect of sales
seems to be gaining momentum. This comes after French
President Jacques Chirac and U.S. President Bill Clinton
both suggested last month that IMF gold sales should be
considered to provide debt relief to poor countries.
There are those who suggest that fears of IMF and
central bank sales tend to be overdone, maintaining that
they would be far in the future and that officials would be
careful not to hurt the market too much or they would be
shooting themselves in the foot.
Still, headlines about potential sales tend to result
in weaker prices.
June gold, which had been working higher the first two
days this week on fears of short covering due to the massive
net-short position of funds revealed in Friday's Commitment
of Traders Report today turned south again, settling with a
loss of $2.40 to $283.20.
"Everyone was reacting to the headline on the IMF
sales," said one trader. "It's not a question of if they'll
sell, but the amounts.
"All of the trade houses dumped it."
Dave Meger, analyst with Alaron Trading, also pointed
to the IMF story.
"Somebody suggested it's not a question of if it would
be sold, but when it would be sold," he explained. "There
were still hopes out there that this would not be done...It
crushed it down through some significant support areas."
Echoed still another contact: "It broke down
technically after a story out from the IMF that knocked it
down. It's not a question of if they're going to sell gold,
but when. That knocked the gold down through support."
Meger pointed out that the IMF officials' comments came
after a number of industry and African officials had lobbied
at a U.S. congressional hearing Tuesday against IMF gold
sales, maintaining that this would end up hurting many poor
countries, since so many rely on mining.
Prior to today, gold had been holding up well lately
from a technical standpoint, said Meger. However, he pointed
out that the June futures retraced upward to the bottom end
of a congestion range from last month near $286, before the
pullback began.
Initial support for June gold was put at $282.80, even
though the price did dip as far as $282.40 at one point
today. Other downside levels were listed at $280, then $277
Resistance was put at today's $286.10 high, then
$288.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

USAGOLD

(04/14/1999; 13:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4678)

Invisible Hand/Stock Speculators

There comes a point when that sort of thing cheapens the labors of all those who produce something. How many of those guys have taken out a 125% mortgage on their home, borrowed on their credit cards to the hilt and dumped everything into this stock frenzy? Don't forget the stock markets were originally intended as a means to distribute speculative risk -- not a proxy for hard work and saving. As for gold coins, I have yet to have a client view gold ownership as a substitute for hard work, but then again gold isn't in the manic phase at the moment. I don't expect you to agree with me, Invisible Hand. As a matter of fact with all the budding George Soros'in the world these days, my view has become a bit old-fashioned.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 13:35:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4679)

U.S. presses Europe to overhaul sluggish economies

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990414/73.htmlIncredible...

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 13:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4680)

to USAGOLD

Hey, pal! Judging from your response to Invisible Hand "There comes a point when that sort of thing cheapens the labors of all those who produce something. How many of those guys have taken out a 125% mortgage on their home, borrowed on their credit cards to the hilt and dumped everything into this stock frenzy?", I'd say you're in agreement with my Msg 4674 response characterizing the fuel gage as stuck on full. Methinks this baby is running on fumes. Arizona has it right about the narrow list (DJIA) being the last to crash. Right now it is going up only because it is going up.
The problem with my car analogy is that when this "car" (rising stock market) runs out of gas, it won't gently coast to a stop like a real car. It will be crunched into a little cube like at a scrap yard, with all the little passengers still inside. Bleh!!

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 13:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4681)

"Goldman's Cohen says U.S. stock rise warranted"

Sheeeesh! They drag that carcass out with the same frequency and purpose as IMF Gold sale announcements. Gimme a break.

(I hope I didn't overstep the boundaries of decorum with this one.)

T. Remital

(04/14/1999; 13:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4682)

What goes up must---!!!

A good reversal in nasd and dow--If we can get Rubin
and Greenspan to take their foot off the Gold brake..we
can start the show...

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 14:27:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4683)

Hi T. Remittal

I think that what we've been seeing thus far HAS BEEN "The Show." When they 'take their foot off the Gold brake,' we will be turned out of the theatre to return to the grim streets of reality. This is fine, because Gold does its best in the Real World. The Dollar is just a fancy puppet act that fades from importance when the lights come up and the curtain falls. Thus endeth The Show.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 14:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4684)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold down $2.4 after 5-day low

By Melanie Lovatt and Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New york--Apr 14--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $2.40 at $283.20 per
ounce after slipping to a 5-day low of $282.40. Traders said that gold fell on
sales from trade houses and banks, triggered by continued negative sentiment.
They noted that concern was growing over proposals to sell IMF gold and that the
market was becoming jittery ahead of Sunday's Swiss referendum on the abolition
of the gold-franc peg.
Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch, said that gold sentiment was dented
by statements from IMF Deputy Managing Director Alassane Ouattara, reported by
Reuters. Ouattara said that a majority of countries were leaning towards
agreeing on IMF gold sales to help indebted nations.
He said that the question was how much would be sold, not whether the sales
would take place.
O'Neill said that there is also "growing evidence" that central banks are
gearing up for more sales, and talk that producer sales would become more
aggressive. He said that today's dip in crude oil prices and the Commodity
Research Bureau index dip helped erode gold prices.
"Everyone is negative and talking about potential sales," said one trader,
summing up the overall mood in the gold market.
Another said that if Sunday's Swiss referendum abolishes the gold-franc peg,
it will lead to heavy sales. "Even if these are conducted in a market-sensitive
manner and over a period of time, it will hurt sentiment," he said.
Traders also said that while gold has been enjoying a short-covering rally
since Friday's commitment of traders report showed heavy short-positions, Jun's
inability to break convincingly above $286 led some to reverse their course and
sell it off.
One noted that with US equities continuing to climb during today's COMEX
gold trading session, as seen in the all-time high made by the Dow Jones
industrial average, gold was being sidelined by investors. He said that there
are "too many other investment vehicles," noting that there are few reasons to
buy gold.
However, one trader said that gold's pullback today was simply made because
the buying "ran out." He said that "dealers came in to sell, along with some
funds, took out stops and caught some people flat-footed."
Meanwhile, at a US congressional hearing Tuesday, the gold industry voiced
objections to a proposal by the International Monetary Fund sell some of its
gold reserves to aid debtor countries. Representative Edward Royce (R-Calif.),
who chairs the Africa subcommittee for the US House Committee on International
Relations, echoed the industry's concerns that IMF sales would pressure gold
prices and hurt poor countries that produce gold.
Also Tuesday, William Schuerch, US Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for
International Development, Debt and Environmental Policy said proposals from
various G7 countries for financing debt relief fo
r the world's poorest countries need further details to more the issue forward.
"The (IMF and World Bank) are very focused on this issue," Schuerch told
reporters following testimony before a House International Relations
subcommittee on US proposals to fund debt relief for sub-Saharan Africa.
Although there have been many public statements by officials from G7
countries advocating different proposals, "we need work by individual countries
to flesh out the proposals," Schuerch said.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 14:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4685)

Again to T. Remital...

Oops. I guess I gave your name an extra "t" because your sentiments are always 'T'-rrific!

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 15:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4686)

Dollar woes continue because Bond buying abates

Hong Kong--Apr 14--The US dollar extended its recent falls against the
Japanese yen today in Asia to hit a fresh 12-day low of 118.93 amid news
reports in the early morning that 5 of Japan's major life insurance
companies plan to reduce their foreign bond holdings. By Paul Scanlon,
Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

CoBra(too)

(04/14/1999; 17:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4687)

IMF Gold Sales

Mid march the big guns called for gold sales of the IMF reserves to assist poor nation's debt problem.Today it is treasury assistant secretary William Schuerch and IMF's deputy manager Allas(in-)sane Ouattara,echoing the calls of their masters.
Why, are they running out of time or out of ammo? What's the hurry - since most of the poor countries are allegedly Sub Saharan and mostly gold producers like Ghana, Mali et al they just might solve the problem by defaulting altogether on devastating gold revenues (40% of Ghana's exports)before they potentially get rescued to their final detriment by tese guys.

Today at least we've closed the gap in the XAU, but probably are in the process of opening a down gap?
Talking about gaps -Rangy saved my day! Accumulation time for gold assets continued .... forever.
go gold!

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 18:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4688)

Hear ye! Hear ye! "This Week in Gold" has now been updated

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlCommentary from The World Gold Council/George Milling Stanley is now available at USAGOLD for your review and comment. Click on the link above, or take the scenic route to "This Week in Gold" via the USAGOLD HomePage.

We'll see you back at the RoundTable!

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 18:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4689)

World economic models

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_fn7756.htmlRead this is you have the time. The top does not always stay there.

(04/14/1999; 18:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4690)

YGM

Hey YGM - how's it going? That link you gave has been thoroughly discussed at csy2k and Yourdon's and some feel it is just bs. The guy turned out to have one patent on a computer chess game after claiming to hold many patents. The use of anonymous engineers and the overall style of the piece left much to be desired from a credibility viewpoint. Paul Davis had an excellent analysis of this piece over at Yourdon's.

ET

YGM

(04/14/1999; 18:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4691)

Thanks for the insight. Getting so you can't believe either
side of this y2k thing. Well I'm already as prepared as I
can be so l guess like Gold I'll just try to be patient and
wait for the paint to dry! ---YGM.

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 18:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4692)

Is America's boom over?

http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/econ113us.htmlFirst in a two-part commentary

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 18:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4693)

Is an economic meltdown really on the way?

http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/econ115us.htmlSecond part of the commentary

TownCrier

(04/14/1999; 18:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4694)

Vietnam, Kosovo and media hypocrisy

http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/upfront.htmlThe media gets tough with the media.

Silver Tongue

(04/14/1999; 20:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4695)

DOW

Today's activity in the market was most interesting. The DOW struggled like a drowning swimmer to stay afloat and barely did at the end of the day. The Naseq and S & P activity would indicate that tomorrow or Friday the DOW is going to drop like a rock. I would stick my neck out here and predict that by the close on Friday the DOW will be back down to the 10,000 level on its way to a much lower level. This is a tired market. I am not particularly wanting the DOW to tank since I finally put a small token investment into the equity market. However, I think the frenzy is about to unravel like a cheap suit. I am just hoping that when it does the gold shares will maintain their value and the gold will stand tall in the economic saddle and ride off into the sunset.

(04/14/1999; 20:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4696)

YGM

Hey YGM - yeah, it is difficult to discern the wheat from the chaff. From what I can gather concerning y2k, it is this; the world is about to change. As to how severely, no one knows. I am expecting a bigtime depression and that's what I'm preparing for. Glad to hear you've prepared and I hope others are following suit. It looks like real money might make some kind of comeback here.

ET

Goldfly

(04/14/1999; 21:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4697)

You guys may think I'm sick.

Or you might say: "He finally gets it!"

I'm actually starting to enjoy this market inanity.

I've reached the point that when I see Gold claw it's way up a few bucks- I KNOW it's going to lose it all in one day! (Pah! One HOUR!) I feel like the character in _1984_ when the news was telling of one side getting the upper hand in the war, he could SEE the counter-attack as though it were drawn out on the map. Then sure enough, a few days later- there it was!

IT"S JUST SO PREDICTABLE.

But I know how to end this. GATA has it all wrong. What we need to do is ally ourselves with the environmentalists and stop all the logging. Then the SHORTS will run out of PAPER with which to cover the market and they're done for!

BRILLIANT! Aristotle why didn't you think of this? Oh yeah, you guys like your cheap gold.. That's true, I do appreciate the fact that I was able to get in on the ground floor. I've only been closely following the Gold market for about a year. You guys that have been in it up to your armpits for so long.... How have you been able to stand it? The patience of Job, man....

Ok. My next step is to REALLY start rambling, so I'll sign off here.

Go PAPER
(People Against Paper Effected Rallies)

Trees- go hug you some.

GF

SteveH

(04/14/1999; 22:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4698)

Goldfly

Great idea. Cut off the source of paper.

How 'bout this for an idea. What if a Ralph Nader type person sold the idea to people via the Internet that they can protest or reward various actions of institutions by buying or selling gold and silver. Hey, don't like smoking in public, buy two-ounces of silver. Don't like using animals as labratory test subjects, buy a 1/10 ounce of gold. Don't like paying so much in taxes, buy 2 ounces of gold.
Do like the way taxes are lowered, sell a gold philharmonic. Might catch on then a measure of disatisfaction can be measured from the reports disclosing current buying and selling activity in pm's. Just a crazy idea too. (:-) But a great way to measure satisfaction.

Forgot. June gold somehow back to $283.20.

YGM

(04/14/1999; 22:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4699)

Y2K and a Northerners Perspective (w/ no TV or Computer)

Thought some might relate to this short story:

Today having recieved a call from a Yukon logger and
owner of a Hwy. Lodge (about some equipment I'm selling)
we got on the subject of Y2k. To my surprise without the
aid of a computer or TV (no cable in those hills) he has
achieved basically the same opinions on Y2K as most of
us here and G Eagle forum. In fact he and his wife, sons
and their families are selling the Lodge if possible, at the
earliest opportunity and are currently getting prepared w/
food storage etc. They feel there will be little traffic due to
gasoline shortages and financial problems curbing the
tourist traffic, not to mention drastic declines of R. Estate
values. Now we switched to Gold in our discussion and
low and behold he's right in there once again with extreme
understanding of where Gold is headed and why.
I think this just goes to show that not everyone need
follow the main stream barrage of media hype to have a
very good insight into what goes on in the world. Maybe
an unclouded rational mind works better. I for one think
I'll start being more selective about what I take to heart
and head from the internet----YGM

The Stranger

(04/14/1999; 22:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4700)

Notes From Morgan Stanley's Gold Mining Conference 5-13-99

Remarks made by Harold Kamins, Managing Director of Commodity Trading. [Among Kamins's responsibilities is overseeing the bullion banking activities of the firm. He employs a team of sales people who actively seek and transact gold hedging business.]

CHALLENGES
-Gold is the hardest of all commodities to evaluate because the market is so opaque. (for example: CB sales are often unknown until months afterwards).
-Investors have far more options for hedging now than they used to. This means more competition for gold among traders.
-Most important challenge to the market now is turning negative investor psychology around.
-The failure of gold to respond to wildly volatile forex markets last year was a bad omen for goldgugs. BUT, at the time, deflation was on everyone's mind.
-Most bearish sign for gold in the past year has been the failure to mount a significant rally even at times when COT indicated enormous short covering was taking place.
-Commitment of Traders report is an unreliable indicator. Do not expect short specs to power the market higher. History shows that specs don't have so great an impact on price. Too much trading is done away from the market and doesn't show up in COT numbers. Better to place your bets on underlying fundamentals.
-Gold pays you to be short. It offers a very cheap means of financing. CBs and mining co.s are paid for performance. You cannot blame them for trying to maximize returns. Anyway, so far, they have been right.
-Morgan Stanley's numbers indicate that, while the gold short position is large currently, it is actually smaller than 18 months ago when prices were at $350. They do not see the explosive growth in shorting that is so often talked about.

OPPORTUNITIES
-Over the past year, believe it or not, gold has actually outperformed all of the major commodities indices.
-Gold fundamentals look better this year than last,i.e.:
little or no CB sales, demand is up, improved world economic outlook causing less dishoarding, impact of lower exploration spending.
-Gold is the most complacent of all the commodities markets right now. Confidence that it will stay down or decline further is very widespread. In such an environment, any rally to $300 or so could result in a runaway market.
-Recent heavy options activity could result in a lot of physical buying to cover positions.

(Stranger's note: I will try to post more of what was said, at this week's conference, tomorrow. I know that some of this will find disagreement at the Round Table. Some of it will be too familiar to be of much value. I post it because I believe it worthwhile to know what was discussed.)

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 22:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4701)

Looking good!

Hi Guys!
Great posts this evening. I just got in from doing some paperwork. In addition, I ran across an old News & Views Special Report that I hadn't previously found the time to read in its entirety. It was about "The Nightmare German Inflation." It was a good reality check to read it after my paperwork was finished. Maybe MK should consider posting it online on his Gilded Opinion pages for anyone that hasn't had a chance to review this important historical information. What say you, MK?

Goldfly, your post made me take a moment for whimsical reflection on things in general. In that light, here's an assignment for everone: Divide your number of Gold ounces by 32,151. This will reveal your total Gold holdings in terms of TONNES, just like the Big Boys. Thank God for decimal points!

Tonnes. Get you some. ---Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 23:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4702)

Aristotle & Stranger

Stranger- Thanks for sharing the information from your conference, I am sure it cost some in both time and money, so you are giving us a real bargain.

Aristotle- I did just as you suggested and divided my gold ounces but the number you suggested. Unfortunately, I don't get a whole number yet.

Aristotle

(04/14/1999; 23:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4703)

JA...Alas, neither do I

So in the meanwhile I am grateful for decimal points and (not too many zeros) to measure the Aristotle Fortune in terms of tonnes.

If the small number gets you down, multiply the result by 100 to express your personal Treasury as a percent of One Tonne. Trust me, it looks better, and you will be the envy of the neighborhood.

Tonne. Get you one. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 02:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4704)

The "Real" Y2K Problem

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9915.htmGovernment's current Y2K strategy has nothing to do with computers, focusing instead on controlling you and your passions

A must read.

Oregon Geezer

(04/15/1999; 04:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4705)

TownCrier message 4704

Thanks for the tip on the Jim Lord story. What he says is what I've been saying for the past year. Yup, a must read.

Oregon Geezer

(04/15/1999; 05:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4706)

India vote

The BBC reported today that the Indian government will schedule a no confidence vote soon. As a large holder of gold, what, if anything, will this have on the gold market?

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4707)

Ecuador says could create dollar-pegged currency

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990414/boj.htmlIf Ecuador repairs its banking sector and reaches fiscal balance it could introduce a new currency pegged to the dollar. Scary.
Out with the old, in with the new! (Got old? Got gold?)

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4708)

Swedish crown to fall as EMU support gone

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990414/bc2.htmlSwedish currency weakens as new Finance Minister is not nearly as pro-EMU as Asbrink was, who quit Monday. Scary.
Out with the old, in with the new!!

Christine

(04/15/1999; 08:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4709)

Morgan Stanley's Gold Mining Conference--ID4700

Morning. Thanks to Stranger for sharing this information. Am curious as to how others here will respond. I would like to quote from "Monetary Gold Mismanagement in the Twentieth Century-Part 2" by Joseph Miller who says this way better than I could: "Central benkers and welfare statists have always been opposed to the discipline gold places on their inflationary tendencies, and the higher the price, the more they hate and fear gold. These central bankers are very shrewd. They reckoned that it was silly to let megabyte money flow to gold when they had a weapon to counter the tendency. What they have done is wage a PROPOGANDA war against gold at the same time they have made certain that gold prices responded weakly to crises events that historically caused the price of gold to rocket upward...by selling gold into the marketplace during a crisis...or to make statements that a central bank(s) was planning to sell their monetary gold..." Probably Morgan Stanley has its share of gold shorts.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4710)

New crisis watchdog looks at hedge funds, banks

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990414/bkm.htmlNew group of international regulators have hedge funds and offshore investment centers in the spotlight after Long-Term Capital Management was rescued at the last minute over fears that its likely losses could destabilize the whole world financial system. Scary.
Out with the old, in with the new!!

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:29:03 MDT - Msg ID: 4711)

U.S. Treasuries fall early amid sudden heavy sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/os.htmlHeadline says it all. Scary.
Out with the old, in with the new!! (Got Bond-alternatives?)

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4712)

Goldman suddenly keen on metals and mining...(base metals)

Alert: Goldman Ups Reynolds Metals to Market Outperform From Market Underperform
Alert: Goldman Ups Phelps Dodge to Trading Buy From Market Underperformer
Alert: Goldman Ups Southern Peru Copper to Mrkt Perform From Mrkt Underperform
Alert: Goldman Ups Inco to Trading Buy From Market Performer
Alert: Goldman Ups Kaiser Aluminum to Mrkt Performer From Mrkt Underperformer
Alert: Goldman Ups Alcan Aluminium to Market Outperformer From Market Performer
Alert: Goldman Upgrades Alcoa to Trading Buy From Market Perform

Christine

(04/15/1999; 08:50:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4713)

New crisis watchdog looks at hedge funds, banks

The group of international regulators will include central bankers and financial ministries. It appears that this may be like sending the fox into the hen house to "regulate it". I don't doubt that hedge funds and offshore banking centers are destabilizing financial markets, but IMHO they are likely doing this with at least the passive if not active cooperation of the proposed regulatory agencies. "Crockett said his teams would also look at the activities of offshore investment centers, which are usually not subject to the same regulation as other centers." I have very ordinary law abiding acquaintances who now have bank accounts off shore so as to regain some privacy of their personal financial business. (I mean the acquaintances are conservative business people, not drug dealers, not crooks.) The government is losing control via the freedom of the internet--this is a huge threat to existing governments and powers that be.

Aristotle

(04/15/1999; 08:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4714)

Christine, glad to have you aboard!

Excellent find! You have managed to neatly summarize in one paragraph much of what we've all been kicking around for weeks, if not months. Let me buy you a beer. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 08:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4715)

Nato pilot bombed refugees

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_319000/319943.stmNato admits one of its F-16 pilots bombed and killed refugees after mistaking them for Serb military units in Kosovo. Scary.
Out with the old, in with the new!! (Got friends? Who needs enemies?!)

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 09:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4716)

Today's Gold Market Report: Shorts Should Send a Thank You Card to IMF Deputy Director

MARKET UPDATE (4/15/99): Gold appeared to be recovering quickly from yesterday's
downdraft in today's early going. Lately, the unexpected, unexplained spates of selling are
met the next day by equally unexpected and unexplained spates of buying. Yesterday we
were told by the financial press that the gold's weak showing had been the result of
concerns over IMF sales and/or Swiss sales and a deluge of central bank sales (if Bill
"I've-never-seen -a-gold-market-I-liked" O'Neil of Merrill Lynch is to be believed). Today
gold is up, we are told, because the size of the IMF sales are an unknown and they won't
be until the end of the year anyway. So today IMF sales have become a non-factor and the
market is recovering.. I should think that the shorts should send along a nice Thank You
card to the Deputy Manager of the International Monetary Fund for conveniently creating
yesterday's gift-wrapped covering opportunity with some less than business-like comments
about future gold sales. Standard Bank of London had this to say about the situation:
"Certainly this (IMF sales) isn't 'new news' as IMF gold sales have long been a question of
when rather than if and is largely 'in the price'." Standard Charter was correct as the market
recovered on the open in New York this morning. Standard Charter also reports heavy
Mid-East physical purchases when the price dropped.

In Brief (4/15/99)........This morning's newspapers carried stories of the refugee convoy
bombing with the United States vigorously claiming that Yugoslavian forces ,not U.S.,
were responsible for the slaughter. Just a little over an hour ago, Reuters reports NATO
admitting one of its bombs hit the convoy and killed 64 people...................Before the
U.S. involvement began in Kosovo, Milosevic had the blood of 2000 people on his hands.
How many have been killed by the United States and its NATO allies in retribution for these
2000? This is the old "We have to kill you to save you" refrain we heard so often during the
Viet Nam War.................. Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer yesterday refused to
comment on the German central bank's position on IMF gold sales...........The Japanese
Ministry of Finance announced today that it would continue to push for international
regulation of hedge fund activity. ``There is now an international consensus that some kind
of regulation is needed to prevent highly leveraged funds from having a devastating impact
on an economy,'' said a MOF official...............Iran announced today that it would cut its
oil production 10% this month and by 12% for the rest of the year.........Financial Times
reports: "Arminio Fraga, the president of Brazil's Central Bank, is to appear as the first
witness before a Senate commission investigation into allegations of insider dealing in
currency markets. Mr Fraga and Luiz Carlos Alvarez, the Central Bank's director of
banking supervision, will appear on Thursday to answer charges that some local banks
were warned in advance of the decision to allow the real to devalue in January, enabling
them to make large profits. "............MK

If you would like to receive a free copy of our widely circulated newsletter, News &
Views, please go to our ORDER FORM or contact Marie at 800-869-5115.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 09:03:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4717)

Buffett says US stocks 'too expensive'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_319000/319996.stmThe legendary US investor, Warren Buffett tells the BBC that US stocks are overvalued - and warns private investors to put their cash elsewhere.

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 09:06:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4718)

Question for Another....by E-mail

Dear Sir,(Another),. I live in the Land
of the Plenty, some have it All, and the
Rest don't have any. There are the "Queen
Bees" and the "Worker Bees", I am one of
the "Worker Bees". I have managed to save
$4000. U.S. Dollars, would you recommend
I keep the F.R.Notes, or,..buy Gold or
Silver...? Thank You, and God Bless.
Bill.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 09:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4719)

World Bank agrees to Russia loan

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_319000/319888.stmThe IMF and World Bank loans would enable Russia to meet at least some of its foreign debt payments. Scary.
Out with the old (debt), in with the new!!

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 09:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4720)

Rouble at record low; Kazakhstan's currency

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_312000/312000.stmIn case you missed this last week. Scary.
My kingdom for stable, reliable money! (See also the two 'Relevant Stories' on the right margin)
Out with the old, in with the new!!

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 09:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4721)

Headlines only...story to follow later?

Alert: Imf Gold Debate Centers on Whether to Sell 5 Mln or 10 Mln Ounces-policy Chief - Reuters - Thu 11:00am
Alert: Imf Policy Chief Says Imf Members Taking More Favorable Stance on Gold Sales - Reuters - Thu 11:00am

(04/15/1999; 09:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4722)

Some thoughts on the day

TownCrier

Thanks for keeping us up on daily events with less effort. I want to get me one of those Russian loans where you get more if you default.

Also the posts from the New Australian by Gerard Jackson would suggest he sees our economy and the actions of our President a bit more clearly than many Americans.

Arizona Hiker
Today's news would suggest that we do not need to wait for History to speak to Clinton's actions in Kosovo. It would seem that NATO is now Killing the people that Clinton claimed we were trying to save.

Add to that the reports that have surfaced that our Administration was told in advance that thousands of Albanians would be driven out if we attacked, and yet a decision was made to do it anyway.

No this is not a humanitarian effort. Follow the money to find the real reasons behind this war.

(04/15/1999; 09:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4723)

An additional thought

It would seem the rollercoaster ride of a market just went over the peak, everybody in the front car raise your hands for the exhilarating ride down. The fact that tomorrow is an options expiration day could make the ride a little more eventful.

With this going on the rollercoaster operator down below is trying to depress the price of gold at all costs.

The Stranger

(04/15/1999; 10:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4724)

Morgan Stanley Gold Mining Conference, Installment#2

The second featured speaker at the conference was Steve Roach. Steve is the firm's Chief Economist and a Managing Director. He has been a prominent reinflationist and bond bear throughout the turmoil of the last eighteen months.
He spoke about the macro forces which he sees affecting commodity and bond prices in the months ahead.

Deflation has now been assumed by all the various financial markets. It is already in the prices, even though it is NOT about to happen. 1999 is a year of healing for the world economy. By year end, world growth(Stranger's note- I believe he means ex-U.S) will be 2.4%; first half 2000 should be about 3.25%. In March alone, Morgan Stanley raised growth rate estimates for 8 different countries.

Three forces at work in late '98 contributed to this recovery:
1. Reduction in G-7 interest rates (still continuing).
2. Buying power boost from disinflation.
3. IMF bailouts to Indonesia, Korea, Russia, Brazil and Thailand is adding about 1/2% to world GDP growth.
These three influences combined have acted just like a worldwide tax cut. Because of cause and effect time lag, we haven't really seen the results yet, but we will in second half of '99.

Above growth forecast makes following assumptions:
1. G7 CBs accomodate.
2. No global credit crunch.
3. Brazil, last shoe to fall(contagion is halted).
4. Asia has decoupled from Japan.
5.Y2K meltdown is a hoax. Too widely advertised at this point to be a shock. Repair is a lot further along than many believe (and it has cost a lot less).

INFLATION
Yield curve- Treasury prices currently indicate a general inflation expectation over the next 9 years of 1.1%. Average CPI last 40 years is 3.5%. Clearly bonds are priced for a deflation scenario.
Five points against deflation argument:
1.Last time (1930s) saw a shrinkage in money supply. This time, we have the most rapid worldwide money growth in many years.
2.Fallacy of historical precedent. Deflationists argue that the deflation of the 1890s actually was good for the economy. Maybe true in a manufacturing economy but very untrue in a service economy.
3.Talk of too much productive capacity in the world overlooks the demand side of the equation. Non-Japan Asia produces 23% of world GDP growth but accounts for 65% of growth in demand.
4.Services prices rose 2.8% in U.S. last year. Services account for more than 60% of the economy.
5. Friedman-"Inflation is first and always a monetary phenomenon." Money supply in the past year has grown at TWICE the growth of nominal GDP, again, opposite what happened in the great depression.

Summary- World economy picking up. Inflation premiums in all markets are unusually low. (Stranger's note- Over the past 18 months money was forced to go to the few areas where it either felt safe due to size, blue chips, or where there was dependable growth, technology. With the world economy recovering, there is no longer any need to pay horrendous prices to be where the action is. If Roach is right, the real opportunities now are going to be in the areas where expectations have been the lowest in the recent past. Obviously this includes inflation beneficiaries. It does NOT include bonds, banking stocks, pharmaceuticals, internet stocks and so on).

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 10:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4725)

April 15 Memo: Propaganda Wars #3--The Big Lie and Yugoslavia

http://www.polyconomics.com/Good perspective on media propaganda from a good judge of the media--former Associate Editor of The Wall Street Journal.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 10:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4726)

Most IMM currencies fall sharply at midsession

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/4c.htmlCurrencies (and their Masters) vying for supremacy.
IMF gold sales are mentioned.

Magician

(04/15/1999; 11:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4727)

Aristotle, re: knocking down the house of cards

Greetings Aristotle and All,

Let me start be saying that I believe the protracted situation of depressed metals prices is a creation of not just leveraged shorts, leasing, etc, but first and foremost a product of manipulated imagination.

Aristotle, you used this example to illustrate the ratio
of gold production to gold supply to cash in the world:
Picture an olympic size swimming pool filled with cash, and
picture a small pail of water sitting next to it. The pail of water represents all of the Gold that has ever been mined in the history of the world, and the pool of cash represents, obviously, the cash. Annual mining of new Gold is nothing more than an eyedropper amount.

First, may I say, if this metaphor is fair, the current majority in the market must believe that there is a smaller pool (much larger than a bucket) sized amount of gold available for cash/gold conversion. Indeed with forwarding/lending/leveraged shorting, the market players may have come to believe this. I do not argue with this swimming pool metaphor, except to point out a fact with this question:

When in written history has the "eyedropper" amount of yearly mining production ever been voluntarily cut off or at least reduced? Furthermore, when have mining interests ever even seriously discussed this extreme possibility?

Let me repeat here, that Royal Oak is one of a series of mining co's standing to fall like dominoes if some kind of collective attempt at jolting the market is not made.

In my original post, I using some irony when I stated that there appears to be an oversupply of gold on the market. However, looking at the extended price depression, this appears to be somewhat true, in the sense of a market supply/demand dynamic fundamental. My point is that the threat of a supply cut would have a psychological effect in our direction. I called it "counter" propaganda because it counters propaganda such as threats of IMF and CB sales. It may or may not have to be "true". I personally don't know if a consortium of mines would trust each other enough to actually cut production, but I do "know" that the idea of a consortium threatening such cuts would grab market attention. Hopefully there are folks more connected to the mining community who could weigh in on this idea!

The truth you point out, Aristotle, in the supply of cash vs. supply of gold is that the market has been hoodwinked to believe gold is in more bountiful supply than it is in reality. I believe the collective big noise of mining interests would cause market players to re-examine "the fundamentals" and what they push on others as the "truth".

Mage

Arizona Hiker

(04/15/1999; 12:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4728)

No House of Cards

In looking over the annual reports I have recently received from companies such as NEM, ABX, PDG, and AU... they are anything but a house of cards.

Indeed...in a very difficult environment they are reducing debt, adding to their resource base, increasing cash flow and reducing their production costs.

They will emerge from this period as strong as ever and beautifully leveraged to the upside which is directly in front of us.

shares in the senior mining stocks will continue to outperform physical by a country mile during this rally.
Check the percentage gain in gold today.

Multiply by 3 to 3.5
That is the typical leverage for a senior mining stock. NEM and AU are beating that normal leverage by 100% today. That will become common place on the way up.

Yes, it is a beautiful day to own mining stocks. The weak sisters were shaken out in one afternoon and the rally is proceeding on schedule.

BTW, JA... if you know how to wage an air campaign of this magnitude with zero collateral damage, let me know.

Yes... a beautiful day to live to in the safe, secure confines of the United States. Thank you U.S. Military, Industrial Establishment.

Have a great day, all.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 12:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4729)

Nasdaq halts Alta Gold shares pending info

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/z6.htmlAlta Gold said it had filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.

jinx44

(04/15/1999; 13:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4730)

AZ Hiker

Thank you for the comments on my rant. We certainly are together in gold and that is good. As for the bunker, yes. I have done my military stint and am deeply suspicious of the USG and the major media. That is why I am on the net for information and insight. I have been a party in the past to the manipulation of the truth for “patriotic” causes(haven’t we all?). I have been a stupid dupe of the powers that be, carrying a gun and doing their work on things I now regret. I do not trust them�"any of them. They don’t care about the individual, only the state. Seems to me that is the difference between freedom and communism, the individual or the state. The last three African countries I ‘worked’ in have turned to marxism. The last two in central America are still proxy stooges for the US. I believe that it can happen here. It is happening here. I am angry that the country my ancestors came to as an escape from oppressive government has turned into that same oppressive arbitrary force. Alexis de Toqueville said that America is great because it is good. When it is no longer good, it will cease to be great. Guess what??

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 14:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4731)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Up; Covering Lifts Gold

New York-April 15-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished firmer here today, with gold helped by short
covering. Silver was lifted by fund buying and follow-
through strength from other metals.
The June gold futures rose $2.10 to settle at
$285.30.
A couple of traders reported today that short covering
occurred in the gold futures. Sources did note there were
comments about the potential for International Monetary Fund
(IMF) sales of gold that were helped and inhibited prices at
various times during the day.
Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer with LFG Bullion
Services, reminded that last Friday's Commitment of Traders
Report showed that funds and large speculators were short
9.16 million ounces.
"I think this is the most anyone has seen in like 20
years," he continued. "So the funds are massively short, and
you have the Swiss vote coming up on Sunday to delink the
Swiss franc from the gold price. Whenever you have this many
shorts, it tends to be very supportive."
The potential for IMF sales of gold, to fund debt
relief for poor nations, had caused prices to fall on
Wednesday when an IMF official indicated the concept seems
to be gaining momentum.
But today, pointed out Kaplan, German Bundesbank Deputy
President Juergen Stark said the status of IMF gold reserves
was not on the agenda for international meetings later this
month. Also, said Kaplan, Bundesbank President Hans
Tietmeyer said the issue of IMF sales was not on the agenda
of an April 27 meeting of the IMF interim committee.
This contributed to the short covering, said Kaplan,
since otherwise "the market is anticipating the worst
here."
Some of the gold buying today came from dealers, who
seemed to be buying metals across the board, said William
O'Neill, director of futures research at Merrill Lynch. Then
there was some producer selling into the rally.
Both O'Neill and a trader, however, noted that gold was
inhibited somewhat again today when another IMF official
suggested sales of gold reserves were gaining momentum and
might even begin later this year. The trader indicated that
remarks by Jack Boorman, the IMF policy chief, prompted the
June contract at one point to fall to its pit-session low of
$283.50, even though it finished the day with a gain of
$2.10 to $285.30.
"That's inhibiting the market," said O'Neill, although
he added that gold still "had a reasonably steady tone."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 14:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4732)

Federal Reserve money supply report- Apr 15

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/bh7.htmlFor the number munchers out there. The world's smallest table of big numbers.

TownCrier

(04/15/1999; 15:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4733)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold up $2.1

By Tina Petersen and Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--Apr 15--COMEX Jun gold futures settled up $2.10 at $285.30 per
ounce after jumping to a high of $285.90 this morning. In a choppy session, it
climbed higher on trade and dealer buying, but was then knocked down from its
peak on fund selling, triggered in part by yet more bearish news from
International Monetary Fund officials.
Traders said gold traded higher in the morning on trader and dealer buying
but then slipped lower following news that consensus is growing among IMF
members to sell a portion of its gold reserves to raise money for debt relief,
with most proposals indicating sales of 5 million ounces or more, said Jack
Boorman, the head of the IMF's Policy and Review Department. The long-running
issue could finally be decided at the IMF's spring meetings this month, Boorman
said today.
However, the weakening from the IMF news was short lived on continued
further buying. One trader noted that these vacillations in the market "tell us
the market is illiquid"
One analyst said that technicians have lowered their technical objectives to
about $275 on gold and $4.75 on silver. However, while some predict gold and
silver will revisit recent lows, most said they don't expect the markets to hit
those levels.
"They may test recent lows, but it seems that these markets have upward bias
over the next couple of weeks," said a trader. Another bullish trader agreed,
predicting that silver could reach $5.20 and gold $300 in the next few weeks.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Gandalf the White

(04/15/1999; 15:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4734)

Not to worry about the IMF sale of 5 million oz.

Billy Gates said he would drop in his weekly allowance and pick it all up for the Goldhearts !
<;-)

YGM

(04/15/1999; 15:55:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4735)

GATA -- Achieves $50,000.00 Mark.

http://www.gata.org/ Berger/Montague will now be retained and a Public
Relations Firm will start on a campaign of expose's to the
masses on the current Gold Markets etc. A Gata member
might post the entire E-Mail from Bill as my cut and paste
is disabled. A formal announcement from Gata will be
made shortly.--YGM

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 16:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4736)

TownCrier and All...A Currency War?

It's fascinating to me, Townie, the amount of spin being applied to the IMF situation by its spokesmen and the United States, Great Britain and Canada.

The rift within NATO's ranks grows by the day. On one side you have Germany, and I am guessing much of the EU, trying to find a way to stop the fighting in the Balkans, and stop the gold sales out of the IMF. On the other side, you have the English speaking countries pushing to deepen the conflict and sell off IMF gold. We should not forget that the ECB houses strong gold reserves, while BUSAC (Britain, USA, Canada) have been anti-gold for a long time.

Is it just me, or do others see these two issues as dividing the Western alliance? Not even the reporters seem to be able to get the story straight in either venue. I thought it was odd that NATO would essentially reject the German peace plan out of hand. Isn't Germany part of NATO? In the Bridge report (directly below), the spin is that the IMF will sell gold. In the FWN report (below that), Lenny Kaplan relays news that gold sales aren't even on the agenda according to Bundesbank.

So what is really going on? Why all the noise? And why is the IMF and press so insistent about these sales? Can it be that we are getting to the end of the road here on the long bear market in gold? As Kaplan says there hasn't been a short position this large in 20 years. Perhaps the thick fog of propaganda is no longer enough to keep a lid on the gold price -- or the failure of the Balkan War for that matter.

Don't forget, too, the Japanese are pushing hard for international regulation of hedge funds (read derivatives trading), and that it has been Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin who have consistently defended the LTCMs of the world to the extent of engineering a bailout for LTCM late last year. As gold investors we should not take this developing rift in the West lightly. It could be the surface waves of much a deeper volcano roiling underneath.

This rift appears likely to widen, and now with the euro in place, that widening is both politically and economically sustainable for Euroland. If this upcoming IMF meeting in Washington is a delicate affair, it will be a great surprise to me. There's too much going on, and when you start putting the pieces together, what we might come into focus is the first major battle in a currency war between the euro and the dollar.

Something to consider.

Christine

(04/15/1999; 16:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4737)

Gold USA--"A currency war"

A currency war? I agree it is a real possibility. Some of us have suspected for awhile that it could be further ratcheted up in June, because of the rumor that has been circling for months that the price of gold will finally be allowed to start to rise in June, 1999. For along time the June date didn't make any sense until we connected it with the euro. Also, the timing of Iran's announcement today that they will be cutting oil production 10-12% is IMHO very suspect. Many oil stocks were up 5% today. Perhaps oil is to provide the cover when gold makes its big move--to cover all their tracks of manipulation. They will be able to say, "gold is just reacting to the big change in oil prices and impending inflation"

The Stranger

(04/15/1999; 17:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4738)

Prices

Airfares were increased again the other day. They are now up 10% on average in just three months.

The publishers of Gary Shilling's book, "Deflation", recently raised the price 15%.

The Stranger

(04/15/1999; 17:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4739)

Christine or Anybody

Please forgive me. I am still new to cyberese. What does IMHO stand for?

Christine

(04/15/1999; 17:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4740)

Gold USA--A split between the English speaking and EMU members of NATO

You suggest there may be a fault line developing in Nato. Your observations are something that has worried me for awhile. I don't think I've shared here the very strange article I came across in Forbes, April 5, l999 issue. Unfortunately it is not accessible online. It is, "Superstate--Why Britain Should Join America" by "renowned British historian Paul Johnson". The fairly lengthy article proposes in some detail how the U.S., Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand could and should be combined into one large country, with Britain becoming roughly 10 new U.S. states and so on. I found the timing and premise of the article disturbing to say the least. There are several other pieces of information that seem to potentially tie in with such a scenario, but I have spread enough paranoia for one day. I honestly do hope I am a goldbug with an overactive imagination.

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 17:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4741)

Responses:

Christine: When rising oil shows up in the indices, all sorts of nasty things are likely to happen. The crazy aunt in the attic will become the talk of the neighborhood.

The Stranger: That was great. The book titled "Deflation" repriced 15% higher....Can I use that in News & Views? With full credit of course.

I see that Canada's prime minister is having second thoughts about selling IMF gold. Perhaps, Royal Oak and other mine operators in his country nearly going belly-up unhinged his loyalty to the IMF cause. Nothing like a cold shower in the morning to get the mental juices flowing.

Christine

(04/15/1999; 17:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4742)

The Stranger--IMHO

Hello. I am fairly new too. I may be using it wrong. IMHO, I've thought it meant -in my humble opinion.?

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 17:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4743)

Christine:

Interesting. I would like to see that article.

With all this talk of dollarization, nothing would surprise me anymore. One would think that there would be many in Australia, Canada and Britain who would not want to give up their sovereignty to the Beltway crowd. I would think twice about that one -- though I don't think Tony Blair would mind making Britain the 51st state. Come to think of it Christine, isn't Britain having trouble keeping Scotland and Wales in the United Kingdom?

I think to a large degree the old British Empire still lives with power now leveraged through the United States. I'm still trying to decide whether that's good or bad. When it comes to the national British view on money and gold, I'm not in their camp. I believe in hard money. They have been the great purveyors of paper money thanks to Keynes. Now we are spun in a web of our own design. At the same time, I am able to voice my opinion like this because of rights accorded me stretching all the way to the Magna Carta. So there's good and bad.

I have met many Brits, Canadians and Australians over the years, as well as South Africans. I have several as clients and business associates. I have to say that I very much like them as people and friends.

The Stranger

(04/15/1999; 17:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4744)

Yes and Thanks

Yes, M.K., you have my blanket permission to use anything I ever say at the Round Table.

Thanks, Christine. IMHO you are a great addition to the dialogue around here.

(04/15/1999; 17:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4745)

Stranger

I had to kind of chuckle on your question about IMHO, since I had the same question several months ago. You see it so often on the internet that you think you should know the answer. I think I went for 2 or 3 months looking for the translation somewhere before I developed the courage to ask. The answer I got was the same as Christine gave below.

THX-1138

(04/15/1999; 18:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4746)

Mines Closing

Well it looks like the Gold bears are their own worst enemies. They dropped the price of Gold so low that they are putting their own Gold suppliers out of business. With the mine in Washington State failing and now Alta Gold, how many more will follow. Can anyone tell me if Alta gold had a hedging program and how much they owed and to whom? There doesn't seem to be any need for an organized reduction in Gold production. Just put the mines out of business and the supply is cut off. prices then would rise.

The story about Australia, Britain, and New Zealand joining the USA is kind of frightening to think about. All those countries have banned gun ownership (Don't know if New Zealand has). If all those socialist politicians were added to the US government, then God help American gunowners.

Aristotle

(04/15/1999; 19:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4747)

Hey, let's not be so hard on Australia, at least.

At the moment, they are treating our blonde friend quite nicely...UP half a buck.

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 19:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4748)

THX1138

Good question on Alta. The announcement was made today, wasn't it? Also, the name of the bullion bank making the loans would be nice to know too (assuming there were loans).

By the way, what does THX1138 refer to, if I am not asking an impolitic question?

USAGOLD

(04/15/1999; 19:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4749)

Sorry THX....

I note that you already asked the question "owed to whom?"

The Stranger

(04/15/1999; 20:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4750)

Thanks, JA

You always make me feel like I have a friend in Idaho.

hornet

(04/15/1999; 20:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4751)

irrational manipulation

http://www.usagold.comGreetings to all. This is not only my first post at this forum, but my first anywhere. Please be understanding. I have been tuning in to this site for the past few weeks and can say that the quality of the discussions is inspiring. Much of the talk about market manipulation I can relate to. I have seen firsthand the sheer power and arrogance of wall street. When there is enough capital behind a bet/trade, they are tough to beat. But, as I recall throughout much of 1994, when the tide turned on the massive levered bond trade there was blood everywhere. Just last year we again saw what can happen when too many market participants/hedge funds play follow-the-leader and put their collective wisdoms in the same baskets. But not to fear, a wink from the fed, and all is well. The "Street" is playing with fire I believe in it's preoccupation with suppressing the POG. Market forces are against them, and as this year progresses, it will become far more difficult to play this game. The implications of higher gold prices are horrible for wall street, and they'll go kicking and screaming. But, they will succomb. Once a very important IPO is out of the way, the tide may turn for good. Keep your chins up! Gold is coming back with a vengence. Keep the faith-be patient for a bit longer. Thanks for your time. I'll keep in touch.

beesting

(04/15/1999; 21:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4752)

WHAT HAPPENED!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uhttp://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^MTMS&d=1b

Can someone give the correct numbers for the Moscow stock exchange?
These 2 sites show the Russian index going from 635.09 to 6 today, a drop of 629 points.
Has to be a mistake or Russia just nationalized 99% of all companies in Russia.
Also Japanese stock index not listed at above URL.Anybody have answers?...........beesting

Silver Tongue

(04/15/1999; 21:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4753)

Stuck my neck out

Well I stuck my neck out yesterday predicting a precipitous drop in the DOW by Friday clsoe. It looks like my head may be dropping into the economic basket awaiting fools who dare believe the market is too high. I was very impressed today with gold's movement up. Interesting indeed that the old whine "Central Bank Gold Sales" only dashed the ferver of the fledling gold market for about an hour and then upward and onward again. This is good news indeed. Now we have to deal with Friday which has for quite sometimes been an enemy to goldbugs. If it should spurt again upward tomorrow, then I would have to guess that gold calls are coming in vogue and gold shorts are getting squeezed in their briefs--truly a nasty thing to contemplate. The market is feeling right for a rally in gold, one that doesn't just drop back after working its way up by the fingernails only to drop back with a dull thud to mother earth from which it was spawned.

THX-1138

(04/15/1999; 21:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4754)

USAGOLD

My name refers to the first film made by George Lucas. It is about a man (THX1138) who works/lives in a society of consumers. All the people are drugged out of their minds to be more easily controlled. He stops taking drugs and the government starts to persecute him. He basically ends up fleeing for his life and heads above ground to a new day and life. I thought it kind of poetic symbolism to my breaking away from the fiat debt system of the current government system and my turning to "real money", Gold.

SteveH

(04/15/1999; 21:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4755)

June gold now...

www.goldminingoutlook.comat $285.50.

Kaplan says the negativism in the gold trade (and the short position) are at all time highs. For those (and other) reasons he states it is extremely bullish for gold, as he feels that when everybody has gone home is when gold's rise will commence.

New topic. I agree that there seems to be a heightened determinination to discredit gold. The Sunday Suisse Referendum should prove quite interesting.

Aristotle

(04/15/1999; 21:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4756)

Magical One (no, not you, Gandalf, but you are free to listen in)

You seem to remain enamoured to the idea of mines coordinating production cuts to bring about a rise in the price of Gold. A bold idea to be sure, but probably not the best tool for the job. Only insofar as the production-cut stunt would generate publicity, (not to mention the miners' need to cover their outstanding Gold loans with cash rather than metal!) the miners would not be in a more favorable position as their metal (and source of profits!) would not be moving from the ground. This cut-back scheme does not work as it does with oil, because oil is consumed and must ever be replaced--supplied through new production by the producers. With Gold, only those holding the limited above-ground stock, (the "pail" in my early example), would be rewarded.

This relative comparison holds together rather well...swimming pool of existing currency, pail of existing Gold, and an eyedropper of new annual Gold production. I can't imagine that cutting off those few precious drops would affect anyone moreso than the pandemonium created for the mines that have contract obligations to deliver metal on Gold loans that they likely used to finance their startup operations.

You are absolutely right that the psychological element is the fundamental one. The supply is not. The supply is already so small it would rationally justify much, much higher prices already today. The problem is that current psychology is predomintly negative, warped, or ambivalent. 'Negative' applies to those who have metal and sell it. 'Warped' applies to those who are content to use paper with the word 'Gold' printed on it as a substitute for metal. And 'ambivalent' applies to those that take no net position in the Gold market, and therefore provide no pricing pressure up OR down.

This net psychology might best be viewed as The Psychology of the Dollar. Such a preciously small amount of Gold can remain priced low in dollars only for as long as the population's net psychology is willing to trust in the dollar for their future security. This would all be fine, except that the fragility makes it unacceptibly unsustainable. (See my past discussion with Pupil regarding the inclination to hold 'nothing' in contempt rather than esteem.)

It all simply boils down to perception and marketing. The Dollar, with the efforts of the Government, big business, and media, has been on the receiving end of a very powerful and successful marketing campaign...to the necessary exclusion of Gold. Fortunately for us Goldhearts, nature abhors this imbalance of smoke-and-mirror trickery. (Maybe 'Nature' is what MAKES us Goldhearts?) Your conclusion is valid. But while supply isn't THE biggist issue, its perception as an oversupply certainly is one of the many props the dollar marketers utilize to keep the dollar on its legs. They know all-too-well that the dollar cannot stand on the same stage if Gold were ever to be discovered by the audience and assisted out of the ochestra pit. Personally, I think the music has been quite delightful these past few years. ---Aristotle

Jade

(04/15/1999; 22:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4757)

Big move in the Yen/Dollar tonight.

The Dollar dropped into the 117 Yen range In Japan tonight.
This is a 2 Yen move. Something will crack loose tommorrow as this will be seen as a major move. If the dollar continues to loose ground over the next few weeks, it will spell further doom for the equity markets here, as foreign Capital will not want to be trapped with a declining Dollar.

Aristotle

(04/15/1999; 22:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4758)

Miscellaneous

Hornet, I'm not sure where Gandalf is. He's a pretty reliable Welcome Wagon. In his absence, "Welcome!"
I agree with your thoughts about that very important IPO. In fact, I've characterized it as the nearest thing a market could hope for as far as a clear sign...someone ringing the bell at the top of the bull market. Thank you Goldman Sachs. And 'thank you' to the rest of the mesmerized masses who stood paralysed in awe of DOW 10,000 for the past 4,000 points, allowing me to fullfil my own vision of a personal brokerage I refer to as Goldfilled Sacks. Cheap Gold, courtesy of everyone who did not add buying pressure to a thin physical market.

Beesting...I don't know why the Nikkei got pulled? New national regulations that don't want the publicity of something they anticipate to be an ugly fall in the near future? Just as the highly visible DOW has gone up simply on its merits of going up, the reverse direction can lay claim to the same momentum. Just guessing.

Russia? Gotta be a glitch.

THX-1138...have you tried my suggestion posted last night to compute your Gold holdings as tonnes, or percent of One tonne? Give it a whirl. I don't ever "mark to market" my Gold holdings. I only measure them by weight. For variety, do the whole spectrum of units. Expressed in grams you feel rich ('cause the number is so big), which is ironic, because expressed in tonnes makes you feel rich, too (thanks to the word 'tonne,' despite the puny number in front!)
Havin' fun with Gold. That's what it's all about! Warren Buffet said as much at the end of that BBC article.

Steve..."I agree that there seems to be a heightened determinination to discredit gold. The Sunday Suisse Referendum should prove quite interesting."
The more I have studied the facts, the less I feel the Swiss have an agenda to discredit Gold. Their referendum is viewed by much of the world as a general constitional 'update' wherein Gold is but an unnoticed detail. But of course, those in the world that really DO want to discredit Gold seize upon this Swiss info and trot it out time and time again as needed. The Swiss are probably as peeved about it as we are. Check out this excerpt from our good friends at the World Gold Council:

On April 18, the Swiss electorate votes on a new constitution which
changes very little of substance in the old constitution, but is based
on a common legal system and current language. The old constitution
was based on an 1874 document with hundreds of amendments
and affected by numerous laws and executive decrees.
The new "monetary policy" article (Article 99) specifically mentions
gold as a required part of the Swiss National Bank's reserves. By
omission, Article 99 clarifies, in a constitutional sense, the delinking
of the Swiss franc and gold that has existed de facto since 1936 and
that the Swiss agreed to by joining the IMF in 1992. [the IMF prohibits members from pegging their currency to gold--Aristotle]

Further:

This evolution started in 1971, when � following the demise of the
Bretton Woods system � legal obligations to convert the Swiss franc
to gold were suspended, due to the 'currency turbulence� of a floating
exchange rate system. That same year, a government decree set the
value of the Swiss franc at SFr142.90 ($96.40) per troy ounce of gold.
While that was thought an appropriate level at the time, this is
obviously considerably below current market prices. Since 1971, the
SNB has been legally permitted to buy and sell gold only within
+/-1.5 per cent of this officially-set price. With the collapse of the
dollar-gold exchange standard in the early 1970s, the international
price of gold has been well above this official fixed rate; no Swiss
sales or purchases of gold have been possible since that time.

So hopefully with this I have demonstrated that this story has been 'spun' for all it is worth by the fiat-currency camps. Two outcomes for Monday are possible...a short spike down for Gold in reaction to the news, marking the final days of the Gold bear market, or else she heads onward an upward in an acknowledgement that the bottom is already in because no significant 'threats' remain. ---Aristotle

Aragorn III

(04/15/1999; 23:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4759)

Aristotle and all other noble men and ladies

Please do notice the specific wording used in that history..."That same year, a government decree set the value of the Swiss franc at SFr 142.90 per troy ounce of gold."

Does this sound peculiar? It is how money should be understood, as it once was well known in history. An ounce of gold is not there for the changing. It is quite constant--whether you are standing in Switzerland, France, the U.S., Brazil, or Russia. Only the names of the local currencies change to reveal your location. To define its currency's name and value, as demonstrated by Switzerland above, each country decreed the value of the currency with respect to fixed gold weight. Coins are then minted accordingly, and notes redeemed accordingly.

But these days we watch as all things float against all things, while some sink and breathe the good air never again. Gold remains a tight ship, even as the seas are littered above and below with paper; while some of green color have taken a flight of fancy--perhaps now a bit too close to the sun.

got gold?

turbohawg

(04/16/1999; 00:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4760)

beesting

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.htmlThey're still tracking Japan over at Bloomberg.

SteveH

(04/16/1999; 06:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4761)

June gold hits $286.60 in overnight

...trading. Now $286.00.

Reading: Gold over $286 could trigger short stops, propelling gold higher. World Gold Council fights back, says Swiss Gold sale's threat not as big a threat as one would expect. One-month silver lease rate up about .3, indicating a potential short-attack on silver today. Drudge says military asking Pres. for 30K reservists. Oil stocks rising, Asia rising, gold and silver rising. Goldman recommends base metal stocks. GATA reports they have retained law firm...and the painted ponies go up and down (Joni Mitchel)

Christine

(04/16/1999; 06:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4762)

Currency war

London, April 16 (Bloomberg)--The euro sank to the lowest level against the dollar since its January inception as hopes for an end to the war in Kosovo dimmed after US President Bill Clinton pledged to step up NATO attacks on Yugoslavia. "The war could add to stresses and strains in the coming months" in Europe, said Simon Rubinsohn, who helps oversee $16 billion at Capel-Cure Sharp. "It will impede trade and growth performance. You've got to favor the dollar."

Oregon Geezer

(04/16/1999; 06:43:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4763)

Tomb it may concern: Money scam warning

A friend of mine in Cleveland sent me a message about someone he knows who got a phone call that was nothing less than an attempt to scam him. The caller said that he represented the target's bank and it was having difficulity meeting the requirements to be Y2K compliant. He said that the bank's customers would need to transfer their accounts to a bond account specifically designed to protect customers' money until the bank would be Y2K compliant. He further stated that to verify that he was talking to the proper account person the target would have to confirm personal information, account numbers and a verbal authorization to transfer the funds to this special bond account. The target person asked the caller to tell which banks he used. The caller could not do so and the target hung up.
The caller's phone number could not be identified but the area code was identified as 248 --- around Detroit.
Be aware. Be prepared.

Clint H

(04/16/1999; 08:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4764)

IMF GOLD SALES- The ripoff

IMF GOLD SALES
Each time I see something written about IMF gold sales it is attached to the words "to reduce the DEBT of poor countries." If one reduces DEBT they pay off loans. If the IMF sells gold to reduce debt, all the money goes to the lenders. No money goes to the POOR COUNTRY. No food is put on a table. Only the lenders are made whole at the expense of the rest of us. How does this help the poor country?
This looks like a way to raid the IMF gold stock in order to empty the vault before the rest of the world realizes what is really happening.
I wish someone would reduce my debt so I could borrow enough to pay the interest on what debt I have left. Now, how am I going to buy food next week......mmm?
Just a thought. Does anyone agree?

Gandalf the White

(04/16/1999; 08:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4765)

XAU

"Up, Up, and Away in my Yellow Balloon"
<;-)

Christine

(04/16/1999; 08:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4766)

Currency war

Reguarding war in Kosovo (Worldnetdaily-April 16)--"A quarter of the river commerce in Europe is stalled on barges stuck behind the toppled bridges now blocking the Danube--thus putting all of Europe hostage to this madness."

(04/16/1999; 08:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4767)

Kosovo

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_excomm/19990416_xex_clinton_and_.shtmlA somewhat lengthy but fairly good discussion of the implications of the war in Kosovo

Aristotle

(04/16/1999; 09:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4768)

Clint H, agreed!

A market economy is only going to thrive in proportion to specialization and division of labor; each person doing something that others are not doing, and then using the market economy to deal for the items needed in exchange for those produced.

If the money is no good (i.e. not trusted) then the system breaks down, each man becoming an island unto himself. The good quality of the money, coupled with the Rule of Law, are the two biggest elements needed for a market society to thrive. Surely this is our goal, to be ruled by markets (and freewill) rather than by dictators and tyrants.

If the IMF truly wanted to HELP, they would tell each of these heavily indebted poor countries straight up that their money is no good, and that they must return to a Gold standard will full currency convertibility. If the country's treasury has no Gold upon which to launch the new currency standard, then perhaps the IMF in its goodwill gesture would GIVE them enough Gold to get the ball rolling. Or else make a Gold loan to be repaid as it is replaced by the country's new-found productivity and trade surpluses with the rest of the world.

The sale of IMF Gold that has been bandied about is a pure sham as you've recognized it to be. ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 09:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4769)

Greenspan to testify on dollarization on Thursday

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990416/od.htmlIf emerging markets choose to adopt the U.S. dollar as the official currency, America will get a free ride (unless the emerging banks also retain the power to create)

USAGOLD

(04/16/1999; 09:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4770)

Today's Gold Market Report: Good Week for Gold Draws to Close

MARKET UPDATE (4/16/99): Gold continued its advance in New York this morning
after gaining from short covering in London and Asia overnight. As reported here
previously, the last Commitment of Traders report had the short position in gold at an all
time high of 9.16 million ounces. One trader pointed out that this is the largest short
position in 20 years. This is relevant to gold traders because at some point that position
needs to be squared. Concerns about IMF sales (which the German Bundesbank reports
will not be on the IMF agenda in its meeting later this month ) and the Swiss gold
referendum (which has more to do with a constitutional adjustment in that than it does gold
sales) faded over the past two days and all the anti-gold publicity emanating from the IMF
and the Clinton/Blair/Martin administrations has had little effect on the price. This in turn
caused a scramble starting yesterday afternoon to cover shorts. All in all it has been a good
week for gold despite the repeated attempts by its opponents to spoil the party.

Gold is also being sparked by a strong XAU (Gold Stock Index) that moved 7.62% higher
yesterday. Standard Bank London says that the XAU "looks set to break a five month
downtrend. As gold equities tend to move ahead of the underlying metal this will offer a ray
of light to the beleaguered gold bulls."

Another positive factor for gold has been the strengthening yen and the appearances of a
policy change in Japan wherein large financial firms have curtailed foreign bond purchases
and instead have begun to park their money in Japanese securities.

If you would like to receive a free copy of our widely circulated newsletter, News &
Views, please go to our ORDER FORM or contact Marie at 800-869-5115.

In Brief (4/16/99).....Warren Buffett warned in London yesterday that "...equity
valuations at least in the U.S. generally are fairly full and I would not advise anybody in the
US that came in to some money right now, to rush into the equity market.".......... The
NASDAQ is down hard again this morning with internet stocks taking a brutal
beating..........A Toles/ Buffalo Evening News cartoon this morning shows Milosevic
sitting at his desk in a bombed out building with pen in hand muttering, "Okay, Okay. I'm
writing a check to the Clinton Campaign Committee.".............. Bridge News reports
"UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said today that he "confidently" expected
the IMF to sell-off US $1 billion of gold this year to help with debt reduction for the
poorest countries." Please note the time frame has been moved up to sometime this year.
Previously, the rhetoric had the public believing the sales were imminent. And $1 billion?
Give me a break. That won't put a dent in the debt. C'mon, Gordy, care to tell us the real
story?......................... There are reports this morning that the ECB has entered the
market in support of the euro -- thus far to no avail. .......................Alan Greenspan
will testify before Congress next Thursday on "dollarization".....Oil moved over the $17
per barrel mark in early trading..........A court appointed monitor today recommended that
Royal Oak -- in hawk to the tune of $600 million -- be auctioned off to the highest bidder.
Under these circumstances gold loans are likely to paid in currency not gold. The bullion
banks originally making the gold loans will be forced to puchase gold to pay back the
central banks from which the gold was borrowed. Royal Oak has four operating mines in
Canada and over 1000 employees..... Perhaps the Royal Oak debacle had some effect on
Prime Minister Martin's change of heart on IMF gold sales. Yesterday he made the very
politic statement that if the IMF decides to authorize gold sales at its upcoming Interim
Committee meeting in Washington, those sales must be done in such a way as to not disrupt
the gold market......That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters.... Have a good
weekend....MK

NORTH OF 49

(04/16/1999; 09:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4771)

USAGOLD--Martins' promotion

I could be wrong, but I got a feeling that Jean Cretien is gonna be really ticked about losing his job.

No49

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 10:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4772)

Treasury Bond Prices Continue Fall

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990416/bonds_1.htmlExtending a retreat into a fourth straight session is about all that needs ' be said.

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 10:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4773)

European gold holds firm, silver steady

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990416/qu.htmlGood report...portrays IMF gold and Swiss referendum in proper context, if you can believe that!

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 10:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4774)

FOCUS-Nations warm to IMF gold sales,date in doubt

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/bog.htmlRead about it for yourself. I say...SOMEBODY is needing that gold. Don't try standing in line for it!

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 10:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4775)

Swiss Gold - On Hold

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990415/world_gold_1.htmlThis stuff you already know from your time at the Round Table and visits to the USAGOLD Gilded Opinion.

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 10:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4776)

Canada's Martin cautious on IMF gold sale plan

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990415/bs1.htmlStacks and stacks of "yellow cash" can't be created or replaced with the stroke of a pen

YGM

(04/16/1999; 11:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4777)

@North of 49

How are the "Majority" of Canucks going to feel about
having Alan RockHead or Paul 'the shipping magnate'
Martin for the next P.M.? If I remember right the Liberals
Cretien won last time w/ only 37% of the popular vote.
The Reform Party has to be better than these guys IMHO.
---YGM
"Go Gata" & email Monte Solberg til his computer melts!!!

USAGOLD

(04/16/1999; 12:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4778)

Media Release: GOLD FIELDS RESPONDS TO HEDGING RUMOURS

I just received the following press release from good friend, Cheryl Martin of Gold Fields Limited Johannesburg SA. It speaks for itself. We have all seen the rumors in various press reports about Gold Fields' forwarding/hedging program. The firm is apparently fed up with the false rumors, and makes this attempt to put a stop to them.

Cheryl Martin gives permission in advance to post the following at your discretion. By the way, Chris Thompson, the new chairman of Gold Fields Limited, was a recent founder of the Emerging Markets Gold Fund and formerly was a resident of Denver, Colorado for the past 15 years. So now we have a Coloradan in Johannesburg heading up the second largest gold mining company in the world. Mr. Thompson is a fellow goldmeister.

Cheryl Martin/North America
303-298-0762
goldflds@gte.net
------------------------

Media Release:
GOLD FIELDS RESPONDS TO HEDGING RUMOURS

JOHANNESBURG, 16 APRIL 1999 - - Chris Thompson, Chairman of Johannesburg-based, South African gold producer, Gold Fields Limited, today announced that, other than regular sales of production, the company has made no new forward sales of gold whatsoever during 1999.

Thompson said that the company had found it necessary to make this statement in response to persistent allegations that Gold Fields had recently sold large amounts of gold forward.

"These rumours appear to be emanating from New York-based bullion dealers," said Thompson.

"The seeming explanation for these unfounded and persistent rumours is a desire by the short end of the market, or dealers, to talk the gold price down. We do not wish to be associated with these efforts," he said.

Gold Fields Limited is one of the world's largest, low-cost producers of gold, with anticipated proven reserves of 96 million ounces and annual production of four million ounces during 1999/2000. It trades on the Johannesburg and London Stock Exchanges under the symbol "GFL" and , currently, in the US, on the OTC market under the symbol "GDFDY".

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 12:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4779)

Greenspan warns against rising U.S. protectionism

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990416/1e.htmlSpot on, Ol' chap.

Aragorn III

(04/16/1999; 13:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 4780)

Why sample the dish when you may eat the meal?

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/current/19990416.htmHere, read the basis for TownCrier's "Cliff's Notes". The Fed Chairman tells it as it is, but with one flaw, a concept I know he understands too well. Perhaps he is to be forgiven on the grounds of time constraints or cognition of audience tolerance. I assure you this message would be enhanced if delivered to this august body. Such is your hint.

Can you spot the "flaw" in these thoughts that otherwise ring true?

got time?

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 13:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4781)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals

New York-April 16-FWN--The precious metals complex
ended the session slightly higher, with silver
benefitting from technically oriented buying, while gold
firmed but then backed down from earlier gains on end-of-the
week profit taking.
"Silver is above the $5 mark for the second day in a
row," said George Kleinman, president of Commodity Research
Corp. "So we've seen some technical buying."
June gold got as high as $286.70 in the overnight
ACCESS trade and $286.60 in the day session, but pulled back
slightly on profit taking to end with a modest rise for the
day of 30 cents to $285.60.
"Today's action was in pretty low volume," said
Kleinman. "The market has made some pretty solid gains since
it made its major low about two weeks ago....There was a
little weekend profit taking.
"Today's high was the highest level we've had since the
end of March (on the 24th), so at the end of the week you
would expect to see some profit taking."
Another contact reported that gold initially firmed
overnight, beginning with short covering in Asian hours.
Both this source and Kleinman said the yellow metal might
have been helped by rising equity prices of gold companies,
often seen as an indicator of metals prices.
The XAU index of gold and silver companies is up 3.19
at 66.62.
Kleinman put support for June gold at $283.50, then
$279. Resistance is expected initially in layers around
$286.50 to $287.50, with major resistance at $292 and$298.
This weekend, there is a Swiss referendum to sever the
link between the Swiss franc and gold. The expectation is
that it will pass, said Kleinman.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

Christine

(04/16/1999; 14:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4782)

Missing barrels, paper barrels, illusion of oil glut

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/html/speech_noia.htm"Surviving the Energy Crisis: Paper Barrels, Missing Barrels, the Illusion of Technology and Depletion", by Mathew Simmons. Ted Butler pointed this out as outstanding analysis. Written by oil insider, well-researched, argued and documented. Argues that there has not been an oil glut, that the figures are wrong. Much smoke and mirrors with oil as with gold. (Oil stocks up big today.)

Magician

(04/16/1999; 15:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4783)

Aristotle, re: Gold Production cuts

From your last post, I can tell we are agreed on almost all points but one. I am not enamoured of the idea of actual gold production cuts. You state the disadvantage that this has to the bottom line of the mining co. I fully agree that this is not a logical thing for individual mining interests.

I do remain enamoured of the device of this idea as used in the gold market and industry to become a new threat to overhang the market and especially those who are ignorant of the fundamentals. The value of this idea is in it's use in a giant game of chicken, as fiats continue to make threats of sales that overshadow the market.

Mining co's would not have to actually put production cuts into practice, but they would definitely need to consider this action with as much publicity and fanfare possible.

I also believe that in this year of 1999, such an announcement is more likely to have the desired impact than if it were to come out in years following our pre-millenial madness leading up to 2000.

Just imagine how the mainstream press might respond to this threat. They might just have to enter into an explanation similar to your swimming pool metaphor that describes the "eyedropper" inflow of gold production. This is, however, one of the simple facts the public is not supposed to hear in order to perceive gold in abundance. This would be a check on paper as king and perhaps checkmate if done in 1999.

Finally, let me try to place some context if this measure seems extreme. The PoG is not going to touch $300 this year if Bilgerbergers and Rothschilds can help. They want mines to fail right and left so that their buyers can pick them up for fiat pocket change. The temporary game of "tarnishing gold" does not end until PoG hits around the $235 range and/or many more mining co's roll over. We all "know" that the PoG will one day step into an elevator. "They" will forestall the real market as far past the millenium as possible to "keep paper king" while mines can be taken over with a few entries in various spreadsheets.

Threatened mines can try to counter in this propaganda campaign against gold, or like Royal Oak, maybe they could just hope for the best.

Magician

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 15:35:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4784)

Euro erases losses at U.S. close on short covering

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990416/ba5.htmlIf losses can be erased on short covering, does it not stand to reason that the original losses were CAUSED by the placement of the short position in the first place?

Same holds for gold. Look no further for the cause of price movements, the speculators make the market!

Aristotle

(04/16/1999; 15:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4785)

From Townie's prior newslink...incredible...

"The market has become used to selling the euro, and now the Kosovo crisis is bringing problems closer to Europe's door than America's" & "The fact we're off the record lows just means people have been taking back some short positions." SHEEEEEESH!

I believe that boy is ON to something, along with MK's and Christine's talk of currency wars. The market gets into a habit, like selling gold or selling euros, and when they so eggregiously overstep the fundamentals, the Hell to be paid is so severe that outside help is needed to keep the entire fiat tapestry from unwinding. If the dollar were ever to gain downside momentum as a weak currency, it is all over!

IMF drops bombs to keep Gold in check, while NATO drops bombs to keep euros in check.

Do I dare allow myself to believe this? AARRRRGH! Flee the system--you can't trust the market movers with your puny well-being! Get Gold and thumb your nose at the misguided miscreants. Take back a measure of personal independence from others. ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/16/1999; 15:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4786)

Hey Magi...bravo, and bravo again.

"...they would definitely need to consider this action with as much publicity and fanfare possible."

Fanfare...yes, that's good. Fanfare.

"This would be a check on paper as king and perhaps checkmate if done in 1999."

Ahhhhh, yes. The incredible leverage of Timing! We are dealing with forces now that no small number of men or spin masters can contain. The cracks in the dike are already seeping water... ---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/16/1999; 16:07:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4787)

Greenspan faces anti-inflation dissent at Fed

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990416/74.htmlComprehensive, and worth your time to digest to form an opinion.

USAGOLD

(04/16/1999; 16:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4788)

Christine & Oil...

Christine, I didn't want to let your observation about oil being a convenient cover and excuse for the coming dollar weakness without offering this in support:

What you suggest is precisely what happened in the 1970s. "Big Oil" and "OPEC" took the blame for rampant inflation and the runaway gold price. The politicians (including the Fed) and Wall Street conveniently shifted the blame.

CoBra(too)

(04/16/1999; 16:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4789)

Topping signs - for bubbles

Had dinner with a some guys from Ned Davis Research tonight in Vienna and discussed value indices in past 6 bull market peaks. A topic they have commented in their April 15. chart of the day.
Today I've found on Bill Murphy's Metropolecafe a short article from "Professor v. Braun - The rocket school of economics" stating the following: A dilemma of serious proportions is beginning to appear in the mutual funds money management. While being at the forefront of the stockmarkets meteoric rise to record new highs, finally cracks are beginning to appear in the "what me worrry" attitude that has characterized the current approach to what could loosely described as value investing.
The dilemma is best described as where do we put our clients money. As Index's begin to fall and the day trader craze begins to wane the reality of the dangers of investing in what is truly a bubble will become apparent......
.... The bull is no longer suffering from constipation. On the contrary, that truly great laxative, pure fear, is beginning to take effect. ... coincidences posted at more or less the same time ... Gotta wait for GS IPO on May 3rd.? or is it grace to June, as was mentioned on this site?

In the latest Barrons Alan Abelson quotes skeptical Warren Buffet on manipulative (or is it creative) accounting on restructuring and mergers.
Earnings do have problems, now probably for two years already - but who cares it's not relevant to market performance anymore! - since we're so far out of whack anyway.
Final question: Could anyone on this sophisticated round table tell me what the female equivalent of a bull is? You may need B**ls, Abby. In the late seventies there have been two, the Aden sisters, of them on the gold side.
Pardon moi for long post.

Personally, I (gut)feel the fortune of POG et al looks a lot more friendly today.POG was riding a wall of worries facing the barrage of rhetorics of IMF, CB and Swiss Au sales over the last weeks and still closing up. XAU action
underpinning positive outlook. May just this time make it work!

- thanks to Tietmeir, Goldfields et al

Christine

(04/16/1999; 16:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4790)

We may have oil shortages as soon as summer

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/html/speech_noia.htm"Surviving the Energy Crisis : Paper Barrels, Missing Barrels, the Illusion of Technology and Depletion," by Mathew Simmons. This article is very long, the author is technologically very sophisticated (ie oil technology), and convincing. One of his many important conlusions, at end of article: "The irony of having our first taste of petroleum shortages in 20 years hitting home as early as this summer is the angst this would trigger throughout America. And if it happens, everyone will immediately blame the domestic oil industry for creating this mess. Sadly, both the domestic oil industry and OPEC were innocent bystanders and were rapidly becoming insolvent as this whole mess played out." I know that this forum has often focused on the impending world decline of oil. This author verifies the thinking about that. He also state that this last 2 1/2 years of articially low oil prices has been caused by oil shorting on NYMEX. The articially low prices have actually done damage to the industry, and will likely bring about oil shortages sooner than otherwise. And the blame will be in the wrong direction.

USAGOLD

(04/16/1999; 16:35:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4791)

This Morning's Report....

I want to thank all our Canadian posters and lurkers who e-mailed me regarding my promotion of Mr. Martin to prime minister. Sorry about that. Mr. Chretien is the prime minister. Needless to say, either one or both would be well-served to give some consideration to what the resource businesses, including gold, can do for Canada's flagging national income, as should their anti-gold counterparts in the United States.

Christine

(04/16/1999; 16:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4792)

MK Price of oil to act as cover for gold to suddenly rise

Hello MK. No kidding. From the conclusions in this oil article, we are going to get cover for the POG to skyrocket. Right now I'm very angry about the apparent manipulation of everything in sight.

CoBra(too)

(04/16/1999; 16:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4793)

relative new poster - l.t. lurker

@ Michael Kosares,
Thank you, sir, for a great site to learn and exchange ideas
on the favourite topic we all seem to share.

May your days be golden and all your nights have a silver lining. (sorry, sounds awful- still mean it).

Looking forward to tomorrows comments -

An (g)old(en) goldbug smelling spring ...

Also want to pay hommage to never-resting YGM, who will know of the Saga of Bralorne, Pioneer Gold Mines in B.C. in the 30-ies (been early member of Mida's Cafe and (small) supporter of GATA).
AS we say =Glueck auf= the miners "HI"...

USAGOLD

(04/16/1999; 17:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4794)

Cobra...

Thank you for your kind comments and for participating at this table round where we all take a seat in pursuit of golden grail of wisdom. I have taken great interest in your remarks and thank you for sharing your own hard-won wisdom with us all.

All...Another snowstorm here. A blizzard on April 16.

YGM

(04/16/1999; 18:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4795)

(No Subject)

Cobra Read your post and thank you for your kind words of
support. I have been lucky to have had access to what
amounts to a wealth of knowledge from posters at this site
and USA Gold Archives and M.Ks' insights. It has been a
winter of new discoveries thanks to the computer with
which I have the common love/hate relationship. But this
forum and that of Gold Eagle and Kitco surely have been
beneficial to many, even this house bound miner who
found a very worthwhile and so far, rewarding cause in
Gata and the common goal of seeing Gold viewed by
others in a new light. I remember Braelorne as my uncle
worked there but it was a little before my time. I'll have to
buy a book now as I know it had quite a history.
Best Regards: Ken --YGM

(04/16/1999; 20:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4796)

All

Some mighty fine thoughts today. Great info and insights.

Clint wrote in part;

'This looks like a way to raid the IMF gold stock in order to empty the vault before the rest of the world
realizes what is really happening.'

This would seem to make sense, wouldn't it? Grab it while the gettin's good.

USAGOLD wrote in part;

'A court appointed monitor today recommended that
Royal Oak -- in hawk to the tune of $600 million -- be auctioned off to the highest bidder.'

Yup, the main fringe benefit from running the price of gold down. There's a method to this madness.

Magician wrote in part;

'The PoG is not going to touch
$300 this year if Bilgerbergers and Rothschilds can help. They want mines to fail right and left so that
their buyers can pick them up for fiat pocket change.'

Hey - Magician sees it the same way. We should be buying gold mines! The XAU the last few days would indicate somebody is buying gold mines.

Aristotle wrote in part;

'IMF drops bombs to keep Gold in check, while NATO drops bombs to keep euros in check.'

Could be some merit to this. I personally think this war is about money. I heard today the Serbs have routed all the people from around the town closest to the big mine so they can 'dig in' and defend this area. In spite of the manipulation and propaganda, when it gets right down to it, everybody in the world thinks alike. Grab the gold, eh?

CoBra(too) wrote in part;

'Final question: Could anyone on this sophisticated round table tell me what the female equivalent of a
bull is?'

A bullet, of course.

Christine wrote in part;

'I know that this forum has often focused on the impending world decline of oil. This author
verifies the thinking about that. He also states that this last 2 1/2 years of articially low oil prices has
been caused by oil shorting on NYMEX. The articially low prices have actually done damage to the
industry, and will likely bring about oil shortages sooner than otherwise. And the blame will be in the
wrong direction.'

Hey Christine - now this is an interesting thought. I don't believe I've ever heard anyone posit this theory. You, me and the author are all tired of the manipulation of everything.

Thanks to all for some great THOUGHTS!

ET

NORTH OF 49

(04/16/1999; 20:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4797)

YGM

Sorry for the delay in responding--took the ole thunderstick out this afternoon and blasted some holes in some paper (as Ari would probably say-"it's the Jones' thing to do)

As for the majority of Canucks' feelings about Rock or Martin aspiring to the position of Prime Minister, in western Canada, the thought would be met with pure horror!! Rock has destroyed every portfolio that he has come in contact with--a total incompetent. Martin is a shrewd businessman, but a pro at spending OPM (other peoples' money). He balanced the budget and applied a pitance to the national debt, not enough to enen put a dent in the interest, but now he feels all mankind should pay homage to his accomplishments. I guess I'm being hard on the guy, but I don't think a country should be run any differently than a successful business. To survive in business, you need follow only one rule--"spend less than you earn". Simple enough concept, but only been accomplished so far by the Govt. of Alberta.

You are correct in that the Liberals got in with only 37% of the popular vote or thereabouts (actually Chretien got in with even less than that in his own riding--go figure), and we're likely stuck with the incompetency until the two parties on the right quit squabbling and aim their efforts in the same direction. As the situation exists, the vote of the right is split quite effectively down the middle, or somewhere in between.

I think that's why I spend so much time out of the country--I just cringe when I see what these people are doing to this great country, including tripping over themselves to firesale the country's gold reserve--idiots!! Pure and simple idiots!!

Of course, my western opinion is probably met with great distain in the east, and the good folks up there with you in the Yukon think we're all nuts--must be something in the water.

Don't have to e-mail Monty Solberg (Reform Finance Critic), he just lives down the road from me. He has the tenacity of a Bulldog (not unlike yourself) but alas, he has a tall mountain to climb indeed. The Liberals have a majority of the Parlimentary seats, so can pretty much thumb their noses (which they do with much glee) at Monte whenever he goes on the attack. You can only keep yourself in power by giving money away for so long, then WOOF!! the house of cards comes down. Strange---this conversation is starting to sound somewhat familiar!!

No49

YGM

(04/16/1999; 20:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4798)

North 49

Well you just blew me away w/ the neighbor thing!!! You
see that skinney bulldog tell him I'm still waiting for his
response. Just kidding. Hope you can put a fire under him
anyway. Yes ---Unite the Right shall be the call next time
around. Regards to you: Ken Reser.(just so you know who
he (Solberg) better pay attention to)---YGM
Go Gata.
Ps. The local paper wants to do a story on Gata & Canadas
Gold Reserves etc, and I'd like to speak kindly of Reform.

SteveH

(04/16/1999; 21:19:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4799)

The ultimate gold leasing theory from you know where:

Date: Fri Apr 16 1999 10:41
Frail (Interesting Piece on Gold Leasing ) ID#338304:
Copyright � 1999 Frail/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This short reply was written in response to the excellent article written on December
16, 1998 by Ted Butler regarding the leasing of both gold and silver.

Ted Butler is correct to suggest the procedure of leasing both gold and silver at this
time because the joint venture of Banks, Brokerage Houses and Mining companies
[BBM] that have historically leased ( sold short ) these hard assets is about to come to
an end. Why must this practice end soon? Everyone ( credit worthy enough to lease
hard assets ) who could have possibly leased such hard assets has already done so!
No one leases gold or silver to a third party unless they can be assured that they will
be able to get these assets back. The BBM's have already leased and sold these
assets into the cash markets to obtain cash in order to finance speculative currency,
equity and derivatives trading operations or to hedge their precious metals cash flows
until such time as these markets begin to rise. The tip-off that the BBM's have
exhausted their potential leases of gold and silver was when LTCM had to use
the FRB to bail itself out instead of just borrowing or leasing precious metals
and selling the hard assets for cash to cover their emerging market and
trading losses.

So what happens now? I suggest the following scenario may unfold over the next ten
years.

1.From 1998 through 1999 strong long-term holders ( Buffett, Soros, and others )
start to accumulate gold and silver at these levels or lower levels if the markets
will accommodate, while the public is forced out of their long positions or even
sells short based on possible planted or unfounded news stories. Short-term
day-traders ( on or off the floor ) keep trading and make some profits or take some
losses. Probable trading range for Gold = $200 to $340; Silver = $3.00 to $7.50
over the next 12 months ( most likely a down move first in a deflationary
environment followed by an explosion upward ) .

2.Above $345 Gold and $8.00 Silver, sometime after Y2K the short sellers ( those
who leased ) begin to panic and start to cover any remaining sales or hedges put
on. Of course they will not sell or lease anymore. Long-term holders still hold
their positions. Short-term investors start to buy while the public looks on, waiting
for a pullback in which to buy. Day-traders still buy and sell to scalp some profits
or take some losses. BBM's stop any new leasing programs.

3.Above $500 Gold and $20.00 Silver ( Y2K+1 ) the public starts to nibble in these
markets as the brokerage houses start to write positive articles. They need
volume since the stock market will have dropped off as the Internet stocks are
getting slaughtered. The public would like to buy more gold and silver but the
relative prices seem too high, so they are looking for a price pullback in which to
buy. The day-traders still scalp profits and take losses. Gold and Silver mutual
funds become particularly hot, based on their past 12 month performance and
money inflows from the sale of other stock market investments. Long-term
holders still hold their core investment positions in bullion but start to see their
long-term holdings of Gold and Silver stocks reach areas of over-extension. This
will result in secondary offerings and new issues of stock being offered.

4.At $850 Gold and $50 Silver ( Y2K+2 ) all of the previous short sellers are out of
the market or bankrupt. The public, still looking for the pull-back that never came,
watches from the sidelines in the futures markets ( margins have gone from
$1,500 to $100,000 a contract ) . Instead, they buy the gold and silver stocks in
earnest. Day-traders still trade but at subdued levels, staring in disbelief. The
volume of contracts traded in the futures markets decline, but the gold and silver
stocks are red-hot. News stories circulate about how the French, Swiss,
Middle-Eastern, Japanese and Chinese banks are buying Gold to preserve the
purchasing power of their currencies.

5.News stories continue to circulate ( Y2K+3-4 ) about major fraud at some banks
and brokerage houses which can't cover their derivative and short positions in
the Gold and Silver markets and might default on leasing programs to Central
Banks and the U.S. Treasury. An audit of all U.S. Treasury Gold and Silver
holdings is ordered by the U.S. Senate. News comes out that shorts have no
Silver to deliver on Comex. Gold soars to $1,300 an ounce and Silver to $100 an
ounce. Trading in Gold and Silver grinds almost to a halt. The public and
day-traders are out of the market. Buffett offers 20 million ounces of Silver to a
consortium of industrial users at $144 an ounce. Soros issues a secondary
offering of 1,000,000 shares of Apex Silver at $100 a share ( after a 10 for 1
split ) . Both offerings are oversubscribed. Long-Term investors continue to keep
their core holdings.

6.After 5 years ( Y2K+5 ) in the planning stage ( plans started in 2000 ) , large mining
companies begin to bring on stream their developed Gold and Silver mines.
Prices have stabilized and are now going up or down in tandem with the money
supply and consumer prices. Meanwhile, by Y2K+10, Russia and China
( Mainland and Taiwan are now combined ) follow the Middle-Eastern and
Southeast Asia countries onto the Gold Standard and become instant economic
success stories for the 21st Century. Prices are now averaging $3,450 Gold
and $300 Silver per troy ounce. Puzzling, no one ever mentions the
uselessness of Gold and the overabundance of Silver anymore.

This is the scenario as I see it. Regards and best wishes.

December, 1998

Edwin J. Sheldon, Chief Market Strategist & CEO ( Ag Bug )
Sheldon Capital Management, LLC
Manager of Sheldon Diversified Fund, LLC ( No-Load Hedge Fund in Formation )

NORTH OF 49

(04/16/1999; 21:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 4800)

YGM

Oops! Maybe I should clarify what I meant by "down the road from me" --where I live, your dog can run away and two days later you can still see him. Monte is about 60 miles (a short distance here), and I do see him on occasion on local tv, but have only spoke to him once. Guess it's time to make that twice "eh"?

No49

SteveH

(04/16/1999; 21:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4801)

The for what it is worth post:

Conclusion: After having read everything I could read on this site, on Another, on kitco, on gold-eagle, on paper, and in the press for the last year, here is what I conclude:

Large global multi-fronted campaign against gold and silver to shake loose all physical metal at rock-bottom prices now coming to a dramatic end as oil, XAU, and other commodities (leading indicators all) now show that a bottom may be in and its only a matter of time before all that has been down will be high and all that is high will be low. The global cross-over is happening now and the large volumes in the NASDAQ and DOW confirm that dumb money is taking the place of smart money, which seems to just now be making a move into commodities thus the rise in oil sector stocks, base-metal stocks, and now the XAU.Goldman seems to have recommended base-metals and where do they go the next day or so? Up. Seems they may be playing both ends of this market. Anyone care to add?

SteveH

(04/17/1999; 06:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4802)

The trend is your friend:

http://www.canoe.ca/FP/hanley.htmlSentiment towards base metals and commodities is coming about.

Oregon Geezer

(04/17/1999; 06:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4803)

India shuts down

The 13-month old government of India is in the terlit. By just one vote it lost a confidence vote according to the BBC today. I have read here and other places that India is a major holder of gold reserves. Anyone have a guess as to the effect of the no-confidence and possible release/sales of that gold?

The Stranger

(04/17/1999; 08:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4804)

SteveH

Hi, Steve. Yes, I would care to add.

I think we are seeing a tectonic shift of the investment landscape here. Because the nearly worldwide recession coincided with the explosion of interest in getting onto the internet, we have been in a period where money was coming out of almost everything else and going mostly into technology. Given the resulting valuation imbalances, it only makes sense that, once the recession began to end, those capitol flows would reverse.

Commodities have seemed almost free for the taking lately. The conventional wisdom was that growth in America would begin to slow to reflect what was going on elsewhere. This was the week that the conventional wisdom began to unravel. In the weeks to come, an awful lot of novice traders are likely to become very frustrated. They will not understand why their favorite big tech names aren't working anymore. I suspect many who trade over the internet are going to wipe themselves out. Prediction: worst performing stocks between now and year-end: on-line brokers.

Despite all of the ranting about manipulation, commodities, including gold, have performed just about as one might have expected, against a dollar that was threatening deflation. But, thanks to agressive money growth, that threat is gone now. 1998 may, for many years, be seen as a rare opportunity to have bought inflation beneficiaries, including gold, at deflation era prices.

I was particularly intrigued by Christine's remarks about a possible gasoline shortage this summer. Wouldn't it be sweet indeed to see the tables turn so quickly and so thoroughly. I don't know if it is likely to happen, but I can just picture people turning in their gas guzzling SUVs for more fuel efficient transportation. Ah, yes. Nothing lasts forever, nothing that is, except for...

David Linkley

(04/17/1999; 08:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4805)

Royal Oak board quits, firm in receivership

http://www.globeandmail.ca/gam/ROB/19990417/ROAKK.htmlWitte and directors resign as debt cripples company;
miner unable to find rescue plan

Jon

(04/17/1999; 08:58:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4806)

gold mining stocks

why are major gold mining stocks moving up? gold is languishing at low 280s. I would sincerely appreciate comments. thanks.

David Linkley

(04/17/1999; 09:05:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4807)

OPINION -- Real Reasons for War in Balkans?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_excomm/19990416_xex_clinton_and_.shtml"As far as the American taxpayers are concerned, well, forget
about the balanced budget -- if it really existed to begin with --
or using that 'surplus' to 'save' Social Security. It's already
been spent. If the Republicans manage to retake the White
House, they'll be left with a military and fiscal mess ... the
true legacy of William Jefferson Clinton. That's if he doesn't
invoke executive power during some staged crisis and cancel
the next election so he can further subvert due process and
remain in power indefinitely."

David Linkley

(04/17/1999; 09:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4808)

OPINION -- The Courtier Press

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_bock/19990416_xcabo_americas_c.shtml "The tendency of most of the media, especially those based in
the Imperial City, to be what some of us have called a
'courtier press,' dancing attendance and showering flattery
on the powerful rather than afflicting the comfortable, is a
pattern of long standing and is part of the reason for this
almost unquestioning endorsement of the war. It should
also be noted, however, that beyond the impulse to cozy up
to power -- to take care not to offend long-term sources and
leakers without appearing to be too much of a toady -- most
of the media and the people who inhabit the media have a
strong vested interest in wars."

David Linkley

(04/17/1999; 09:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4809)

Sen. Bob Bennett's Y2K Warning: Further Breakdowns in Third World

http://www.sltrib.com/04161999/utah/98381.htm"Dire effects are
predicted in developing countries. . . . The fears of stockpilers and survivalists in some
countries are not totally unfounded: There exists the likelihood of regional economic and civil
unrest in regions already experiencing political instability, runaway inflation and food and
supply shortages."

-- Sen. Robert Bennett

David Linkley

(04/17/1999; 09:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4810)

Linkley's Saturday Comment

I have posted some news you probably did not see in your local morning newspaper. The question is being asked around Washington and other places "Why is the mainstream press almost universally in favor of this rapidly escalating disaster in the Balkans?" Below I try to provide some answers. There are those who say, and perhaps rightly so, that the press has not played a role like this -- in trumping up a war -- since the hey-day of William Randolph Hearst, yellow journalism and the Spanish American War. We will see where it gets us. Though it appears the press has abandoned its traditional obligation, there are others both inside and outside the ranks of the press with a more incisive view. They say in so many words it is an ill wind that blows no good -- especially when it comes from the editorial rooms and studios of the nation's major media.

Gandalf the White

(04/17/1999; 10:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4811)

Oregon Gezzer's Question on India

Not to fear Gez, Tis not the country India that holds the vast amount of Au, tis the PEOPLE ! Not jewelry grade, but almost the real stuff is worn by most everyone. Then the big stuff is kept in the safe place for FAMILY protection.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/17/1999; 10:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4812)

Sorry Geezer --- eyes and fingers not communicating yet this morning

need a spell checker, Would that help even me ?
<;-)

The Stranger

(04/17/1999; 11:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4813)

Jon's Question

Jon- If you notice, it is not just gold mining stocks taking off. It is anything that would benefit from stronger economic growth. The oils, the copper miners, the steels, paper stocks, building materials, heavy equipment, etc. This is because of a change in perception that is taking place, which is explained in my post earlier today.

Investing in gold mining stocks gives one leverage. When gold drops sufficiently in price, some gold shares can go to ZERO. Conversely, when gold rises, even by just a little, gold miners profits normally rise exponentially. All this is another way of saying that the stocks offer greater reward, but at greater risk.

Because of this potential, gold shares almost always begin to rise ahead of bullion when a new bull market in gold is just beginning.

SteveH

(04/17/1999; 12:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4814)

***Flash***

My local coin dealer buddy to me today, "In the first two weeks of April, I have sold 25% of last years gold sales."

I said, "You mean to tell me what you sold in the last two weeks equals 25% of all the gold you sold last year?"

"Yes."

-end-

FOA

(04/17/1999; 13:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4815)

RETURN

Hello to all!
I have returned and will now remain involved with this forum for many, many months. The period of time immediately before us will offer the most exciting developments to world financial assets ever experienced. For all of us, "Change" is the lifeblood of human experience. Our written
history is the very record of the most important changes that impact current events. Towards this end, many books will be filled with interpretation of how the financial landscape so quickly evolved! Together, at this site, we will discuss these dynamic events and their true meaning, as
they unfold. I can tell you, today, the stage is set and the actors are ready to assume their positions. The drama of the century is about to begin!
I must take time to read the past discussions. Will return a bit later.

FOA

Christine

(04/17/1999; 14:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4816)

What was Greenspan talking about?--protectionism?

Good afternoon all. FOA, everyone here, much of what I now think was formed by prior lurking here, and reading old posts by FOA & Another, so owe much gratitude to those here. Picked up an interesting idea (not mine) that I would like to share reguarding what Greenspan was talking about in his comments about protectionism. The comments were baffling to me and probably others. What protectionism? Given the flood of cheap imports into this country for years, with really very little protectionist response, what could he be talking about? Perhaps he was referring to the failure of Congress to approve the Chinese admission into the WTO. I have read elsewhere that those who really run things are both eager to take advantage of the Chinese economic potential, as well as fearful that they will advance independently, out of "their" control.

Usul

(04/17/1999; 14:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4817)

This Protectionist Trend

As we know, Alan Greenspan has spoken out against protectionism. Yet imports continue to flood in,
as Christine points out. The scope of protectionist
action is, at this point in time, truly limited.
However, it is not the scale of protectionism at this
moment that counts, rather, it is the rising tide that
right now breaks no riverbanks, but that suggests the
flood to come. The true protectionism, as in the
1930s, will come after the crisis. We see now only
the first stirrings.

Tyler Rose

(04/17/1999; 15:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 4818)

Welcome Back FOA!

You have been missed! I look forward to your contributions to the discussions here. Tyler Rose

CoBra(too)

(04/17/1999; 15:39:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4819)

congress vs IMF

Happy to see some first signs of opposition towards the IMF Gold sales barrage. Tietmeier of BuBa, Canada's Martin and now some heavyweights in the US Congress are starting to question the wisdom of the IMF actions of late and, what's probably more important IMHO the integrity of an internationally subsidised institution as lender of last resort to member countries in need of a bailover (never-out). The experience for some of the "charity" receivers was closer to bailunder (sounds like blunder?).

@ M.K. Thank you for warm welcome, will try to stay tuned and share as everyone on this forum has done so freely.
@ ET - Thanks for your explanation - "bullet" seems logical in this case. Most appreciated-though still can't figure out at which end of the barell the addressee (nice neutral word)will bite same?
@YGM- Pls e-mail me at frram@netway.at - will provide you with the most extensive history on the Bralorne-Bridge River
District (just recently updated) via Vancouver or else call Lou or David Wolfin at 604-682 3701 and also ask for update on the new situation there.

Since I haven't been to proud of my small country's politics lately (Austria -8 million people-only 500 km or 265 miles) north of Kosovo - I am very proud of my country-wo-men today donating the equivalent of US $15 million in a week to a program "Neighbour In Need", which was also a huge success in helping the refugees in the Bosnian ethnical cleansing of the same Slobo Milosevich. We've had about 6 million refugees coming to our country since 1956 (Hungarian revolt)to date and about 800.000 have stayed permanently. I guess we've always been a Central European melting pot lastly to our benefit, like in the States and Canada.

Again thanks to warm wellcome and sorry for long (mostly off topic)post.

Christine

(04/17/1999; 16:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4820)

ET Thank you so very much. I am definitely a gold bullet

Hey Cobra--Only vampires need to be afraid of gold bullets no one else ;-)))

SteveH

(04/17/1999; 16:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4821)

some ideas

I told my friend the coin dealer, "You know the ratio of one ounce of gold to the DOW is somewhere's near 36 coins to one DOW."

"I don't follow ratios," he said.

"Think about that. Back in what, 81', was it, the DOW was about 800 or 1000? Now its 10,000. The same ratio of an ounce of gold was probably close to 1 to 1 or 2 to 1 anyway. What does that tell you?" I asked.

"That something has got to give, probably the DOW or the price of gold," he replied.

"Or both," I said.

Using that same logic it would seem that $3000 per ounce of gold wouldn't be an unrealistic number. Then if the DOW adjusted to 6000 and gold was at $3000 that would give a 2 to 1 ratio again. Looked at another way, during the first part of the century before gold was made illegal to possess by Roosevelt gold was around $20.00. Then after it was made illegal it was changed to $35 per ounce. In 71' (I believe) Nixon relegalized it and gold traded free and was no longer married to the official price of $35 per ounce. It quickly rose to the 170's or a five time increase. If gold were to rise five times from its current level that would be $1500. Then in 1979-80, gold rose to a historic $800 per ounce or 22 times its previous $35 level. Since then gold has drifted back to $284 today with numerous spikes well above the current level. In fact the average price of gold is in the mid $300's currently. Were gold to rise to 22 times its current level that would price gold at $6,248 per ounce. Had somebody asked you, do you gold (at $20, $35, or $170 would be $350 or even $800, what would they have said? Yes, I could see it happening, or would they say, no way? Well I ask you, do you see gold at $3,000 or $6,000?

You may read into the above that gold travels in levels for years before moving up or down. It doesn't seem to drift but jump (it seems to drift down but not up). That is an astute observation and one that may bode well in the near future: a jump to a higher level. Time is short, it seems.

Aragorn III

(04/17/1999; 16:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4822)

Protectionism

Christine, Usal provided a good answer upon which I cannot improve beyond adding the strength of support. Perhaps you would like examples of this rising tide? Look to the steel industry this past season, and look to the collateral damage to be realized from this recent "banana war". 100% tariffs to be imposed on many things european--and not bananas!

Protectionism may be used to battle on many fronts, not limited to at-home job security (as demonstrated by steel).
Rising prices taken alone may speak of demand in excess of supply, or else they may speak of a weakening currency. There is no shame in the forces of supply and demand, but how might a nation hide from its citizen's eyes the embarrassment of its failing currency? Through the smoke of legislation and politics of trade agreements! When the people ask the question "Why do our imports cost twice this day what they cost only yesterday?", they come to accept that the "rules" have been changed, and do not lay the blame at the feet of the currency.

All things "paper" are subject to change, and past performance does not guarantee the future. Real goods write the script and set the stage upon which paper actors may live or die. Choose gold for your liquid wealth--it has the power of production, giving direction to all others. Beware of paper--an actor that without a stage and production can be no more than a street performer seeking handouts.

Christine

(04/17/1999; 17:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4823)

What is source of Greenspan's protectionist concern

Usul, Aragon III--actually, your responses were my first choice response. I hope you are correct. I introduce an alternative only because I think we live in very dangerous times. I strive to discover the truth. That is it. I think it can be helpful to have as many intelligent eyes and ears attuned as possible to the likely very dramatic changes unfolding. I sincerely hope I am wrong about alot of things, other than that gold is about to regain its rightful value.

The Stranger

(04/17/1999; 17:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4824)

Addendum

Steve- If I am not mistaken, gold and the DJIA were about one to one just briefly in 1932 also, at $35. In the 67 years since, gold has grown about 8 fold; stocks, 300 fold. NOTHING else I know of has been as poor a long term investment as gold, except short term treasuries or savings accounts. We've got a lot of catching up to do.

The Stranger

(04/17/1999; 17:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4825)

CoBra(too)

I don't recall seeing your posts before, so I guess either you are new, or I am losing my memory. Anyway, I went to gymnasium in Wien at the Americanische Schule in 1964-66. As far as I am concerned, you live in paradise. My compliments on your English which is indistinguishable from everone else's around here.

Aristotle

(04/17/1999; 17:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4826)

Gold on Earth, in the hands of Central Banks and Governments

In reply to Oregon Geezer and other interested people, these are the top national Gold holdings (India is only 10.) The first number is the weight expressed in tonnes, and the second number is the percentage share of Gold in total forex reserves (with gold valued at $287.45 per troy oz (which was the London am fix on 31.12.98 --the valuation used by the ECB throughout the First Quarter.) This data was obtained from Centre for Public Policy Studies, World Gold Council, and despite ongoing forex operations by some of the weaklings, should be still pretty close to today's actual values.

Gandalf had it right. In India, it is the PEOPLE who have the Gold. Any government instability will only result in the Gold held both nationally and individually to be held even more dear.

1 Euro-system . . . . 12,574 . . . . . . . (30.5%)
of which: � �
� Germany . . . . . . . . 3,469 . . . . . . . . (N/A)
� France . . . . . . . . . . 3,024 . . . . . . . . (N/A)
� Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,452 . . . . . . . . (N/A)
� Netherlands . . . . .1,012 . . . . . . . . . (N/A)
� ECB . . . . . . . . . . . . . .747 . . . . . . . . (15.0%)
� Others . . . . . . . . . . .1,870 . . . . . . . . (N/A)

2 United States . . . . 8,135 . . . . . . . (53.0%)

3 IMF . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,217 . . . . . . . . . (N/A)

4 Switzerland . . . . . 2,590 . . . . . . . . (38.3%)

5 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . 754 . . . . . . . . . . (3.2%)

6 United Kingdom . . . 716 . . . . . . . . . (17.3%)

7 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . 446 . . . . . . . . . (33.5%)

8 Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . 422 . . . . . . . . . (4.5%)

9 China, Mainland . . . . 395 . . . . . . . . (2.4%)

10 India . . . . . . . . . . . 357 . . . . . . . .(10.9%)

11 Venezuela . . . . . . . . 304 . . . . . . . (19.1%)

12 Lebanon . . . . . . . . . . 287 . . . . . . . (28.3%)

13 BIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 . . . . . . . . . (N/A)

Converted to dollar terms, the world's foreign exchange reserves amount to $1.750 Trillion in paper form, and $309 Billion in Gold metal form (at today's market price). Of these reserves earmarked for forex operations, Gold represents 15%. Please recall that forex reserves are but a puny fraction of the outstanding money supply to begin with, so compared to world money supply, Gold in the official sector comprises MUCH less than than a 15% share. But in VALUE terms, Brother, the Gold is ALL THERE IS!!!! Hope this is helpful to some of you great Knights and Ladies. It is my pleasure to be of assistance to a Table that has given me so much in the past. ---Aristotle

USAGOLD

(04/17/1999; 19:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4827)

Welcome back, FOA and Another....

The circle is now unbroken.

With everything that's going on, I am very interested to hear what both of you are thinking these days and I am honored that you have the time to spend seated at this table. I think there is much going on beyond what meets the eye. I look forward to hearing where your THOUGHTS have led you in this time of abscence from this Table Round -- as do we all. So, my prescient friends, where do we go from here?

Knights and Ladies, we all sense that something out of the ordinary is in progress. Though we may not know always what that is intellectually, we at least understand intuitively that something is going on -- and I am certain I am not the only one who senses this. Let us strive to define what it is we are facing in the coming months and what we intend to do to help ourselves and our families. I cannot help but think that we have come to a major crossroads. What happens from here on out will be of immense importance to all of us. I can only hope that this FORUM will serve as a place where we can learn and understand at least a little better the times in which we find ourselves. I, for one, feel honored at the presence of this fine group of thinkers at this Table Round. Let us proceed as friends and compatriots in this Great Quest for Truth and Wisdom.......This pursuit of the Golden Grail.

FOA

(04/17/1999; 19:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4828)

OIL!

ALL:
I have been reading many of the fine articles written here over the last several weeks. This forum has grown and many thanks are given to Mr. Michael Kosares for providing it. Rather than commit on the older posts, today, I will just jump in here with what Christine has offered.

Christine, hello! I read the "Missing barrels, paper barrels, illusion of oil glut" article linked to your post. It was an excellent piece by Mr. Mathew Simmons. It certainly does offer hard evidence that many of the conclusions reached by public thinkers are incorrect. How many times have we heard that oil is just a commodity, subject to the same supply and demand pressures as
other items used in everyday life? I think much of the blame can be laid at the feet of high level financial analysis that control much of the mainstream media highlight. These well educated figures are often dominated by "technical analysis" analysis and consider that the price of anything at the close is the correct conclusion. As it is, if oil trades at $2.00 then that must represent all the factors that come to bear and therefore, crude oil is indeed worth only $2.00 a barrel. This is true enough, except that "political encouragement" is never accepted as a component in these "factors", rendering their analysis to be out of context. Therefore, in real life, one of the real forces that would create this fictional $2.00 value are considered something irrelevant or impossible in modern society! These "Missing barrels" and "paper barrels" are indeed part of the western economic equation. Why would a society that accepts digital paper currency as money find paper oil a problem? I think that anyone that reads this forum would agree that cheaper oil has given them a higher living standard today than they would have had if oil was $100. How would you
stand today if oil had continued upwards right after the Gulf War in the early 90s? Yet, the realities of Real supply and demand have not changed from the time of that event. Even thought Mr. Simmons article deals with the latest several year history, it can be used as an example of
how oil is politically priced. "Another" pointed out some time ago that the over production by Arabia (8 million+) did not occur because demand required it, rather it was "politically purchased". This was the bane of failure for many investors in the oil and gold mining industry. Their financial loss was truly used to purchase time! A purchase that benefited many more than it hurt. Today, we come to the end of this international currency chess game. Again, I make this conclusion from Another's Thoughts. In the spring of last year, the world economic system could purchase no more time. When the European Central Banks decided to cycle down the assignment of gold as an inducement for low priced oil in dollar terms, the world was going to change. In the
process of building a fort of refuge around Europe, the BIS has locked the Euro to gold by not allowing any more sales. Nor will they allow it to fall below $280US! When the dollar debt, worldwide, begins it's crash, all commodity settlement will rush to the Euro. What will make the dollar fall? A worldwide dollar inflation, induced by a soaring oil price, created by the non settlement of oil in dollars! Yes, just as Mr. Simmons showed you that the oil glut is not real, but a paper game, so will the price of gold show:
"you westerners are not as rich as your currency say
you are".

Christine and all, perhaps we can discuss this further? Then I would like to offer some thoughts such as " An Economy Biased On Paper Currency Inflation And Commodity Price Deflation Will Lead To Financial Disaster". Thanks

Aragorn III

(04/17/1999; 21:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4829)

Strongest possible endorsement

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/html/speech_noia.htmI must echo the words of FOA, and encourage all to visit this link. Although this is a long document, and although the oil business may be of little initial concern to many Goldhearts, it is not to be missed. As a Goldheart, you have found gold for a reason...it is of profound monetary importance for all modern human life. This is true of oil also. Much that is discussed in this oil commentary of supply, demand, and pricing carries over into gold, and will surely become more obvious in the coming days. You will smile and wink as the events on stage unfold if you allow yourself to first become knowledgable in the workings behind the curtains.
Christine, I raise a toast, and accolades to you for this important commentary. Rarely does an opportunity arise that one may hand over to someone such an encompassing education as may be done through this one commentary. I say again, it is not to be missed.

got time?

The Stranger

(04/17/1999; 22:21:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4830)

The Simmons Speach

Once again, the similarities between the current period and the early '70s is almost eerie.

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 03:58:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4831)

Ok I read it, pheww! A long one but here is the short of it.

110 million barrel per day non-opec supply with 10% per annum depletion rate means oil supply must increase by 83 million barrells per day for oil industry (non-opec) to stay level with current demand. Cost of maintaining flat supply of oil is 16 to 20 dollars per barrel to just recover or break even on exploration costs. Harm of oil at $10 per barrell has been to make it impossible for some of 24 best of class non-opec oil producers to keep up with exploration and production as there a very few world class large oil fields. Today many recent discoveries are fast life boutique fields that require lots of rigs and more manpower that $10 oil makes impossible to fund. Conclusion: oil shortages mid-term and into summer in US possible. Cause: cheap oil in first quarter. Solution: stabilize POO at $18-$20 plus per barrell. Effect: $1.50 regular gas cost. Increase in price of goods dependent upon oil for delivery. Inflation, rising price of gold, etc.

Cage Rattler

(04/18/1999; 05:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 4832)

Test

Oregon Geezer

(04/18/1999; 05:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4833)

Bunker mentality

http://www.newsmax.com/According to an article from London there is a Y2K bunker that has been constructed on the 23rd floor of a building near the World Trade Center in New York City. Seems like gumment bunkers are springing up all over. But, we the great unwashed, are expected to remain calm, don't "hoard" and trust the gumment. Riiiight.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(04/18/1999; 11:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4834)

Enforced Aliyah

Over the past 3 years, there as been a very strong rise in nationalism worldwide.I will just give an example of 3 incidents, but there are a lot more.

Bulgaria
========
About 3 years ago, 500,000 so called Ethnic Turks were discouraged from staying in Bulgaria and promptly sent back to Turkey. Now, when I heard this, I thought that maybe they were refugees from Turkey, recently arrived in Bulgaria. It transpires that they had been residing in Bulgaria for 400 years. With that length of time, I would have described them as Bulgarians and not Ethnic Turks.

Indonesia
=========
Recently, the Ethnic Chinese members of Indonesia were dislodged from Indonesia. These people have been in Indonesia for generations, most of them have never been to China, and they most certainly do not speak any Chinese. However, there is no denying that they are of Chinese descent, and were incidentally, the backbone of the Indonesia economy.

Kosovo
======
We are all currently witnessing the situation of the Ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. It transpires that some of these fellows had previously worked in Germany and Switzerland for years and years, returning "home" with quite healthy savings, in many cases > DM 500,000. They have now lost everything and currently begging for bread in Macedonia, Albania etc.

I have 2 questions:

1. Can this happen elsewhere, specifically, the United Kingdom and the USA. Does anyone envisage a situation whereby, for example, the Englishman will want his land back and foreigners out?

2.I have learnt from this site that the world financial structure is undergoing a tremendous change, that could be quite violent. How does one move physical Gold from country to country.?

Thank you.

The Stranger

(04/18/1999; 11:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4835)

Simmons Speach

I asked my father, a lifelong major-oil-company executive, to take a look at Simmons' speech. He e-mailed me the following reaction:

David,
�� Thank you for directing me to this article.� It presents a viewpoint
which is undoubtedly true.� I cannot critique the numbers or estimates but,
even if these were adjusted, the effect would only be to correct the date
when forecasts come to pass and not the eventual outcome.
�� Depletion is a subject I am most aware of as an ex-reservoir engineer.
It is difficult to believe that anyone in the industry has forgotten this
factor as the author states.� It permeates every discussion of forward
planning.� A major problem with all reserve and production numbers is the
lying which goes on.� There are many reasons why none of the published
figures have real value, because there are simply so many good reasons for
false figures.� Crediting technology for additions is wrong in most cases.
In far earlier days a driller used to carry a pad of footage made while
making hole so he could miss an hour or a tour and still report on his logs
that drilling was continuous.� He screwed up the records and made nonsense of
the stratigraphy which later men would scratch their heads over, but who
cared?� This reserve� business is like that.
�� Ultimately the world will exhaust it's reserves and oil will no longer
power our activities, but when?� Sooner rather than later. The effect will be
the biggest financial upheaval in history, the impoverishment of nations,
and probably major wars to fight over what remains.� I had hoped that these
events would be delayed past my, or your time, but who knows?
�� DAD

TownCrier

(04/18/1999; 11:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4836)

Bay Street Beat: All that glitters is gold again

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990418/ba.htmlYou gotta like the headline, you gotta like the contents:
"I think we're going up from here -- and I'm talking multi years."

Peter Asher

(04/18/1999; 12:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4837)

Close, but no cigar

http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990418/14/swiss-goldHer's the data on the Swiss vote

NORTH OF 49

(04/18/1999; 14:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4838)

Oil Pricing

Mr Simmons' projections should not be taken lighty, as reservoir depletion is an exponential fact of crude production life. I must state, however, that I have not seen a huge amount of failure to recognize this factor in the limited production potential work that I have been involved with.

All "upstream" estimates or "proven reserves" (an ambiguous statement at best) are generally inflated. This is part of a process known in the industry as "gold-plating". All Oil Companies have responsibilities to governments through taxes, royalties, PSA's (production sharing agreements), permits, and a host invironmental issues. These same companies also have financial commitments to their shareholders. As senior management of a large Oil Company, who do you spose they tend to lean towards supporting? A government that can dream up endless means to achieve a greater piece of the pie, or to its shareholders who supply the lifeblood to keep the wheels greased--money?

To operate by the book, well, you would probably see a lot fewer Oil Companies, and for sure, a lot less exploration. Where's the incentive? The Oil Company commits huge amounts of risk capitol, hoping for a return--at what risk to the government? On the other hand, upon success, guess who is first on the scene with both hands out?

Enter the creative accounting maneuver called "gold-plating". (at least that keeps it on topic) It's no secret--the State of Alaska has had to litigate no less than 60 cases over the last 16 years to recover $4.8 billion in revenue. But at what cost? It costs money to hide it--it costs money to recover it. It certainly makes the legal community happy I'm sure!

To conclude, Mr. Simmons feels that it costs $20 to produce a barrel of oil. Given my limited knowledge on what I have just stated, I don't dispute depletion, however, I am somewhat suspect to the CTP (cost to produce) figure. There are far, far too many financial games being played to specifically state "the CTP of a barrel of oil is "X" amount of dollars, because in most cases, there is a generous portion of smoke and mirrors involved. (IMVHO)

No49

TownCrier

(04/18/1999; 15:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4839)

Swiss narrowly approve revamped constitution

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1012.htmSame story, different version

TownCrier

(04/18/1999; 15:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 4840)

Euro-zone financial markets to shut Dec 31

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990417/bm.htmlEurope gives Y2K the benefit of the doubt

USAGOLD

(04/18/1999; 16:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4841)

Eight Topics of Consideration Following the Swiss Vote

1. This sale has been already factored into gold's pricing to a large extent though you may see a gut check down move the first part of this week. If it occurs, this will be the final washout on gold and it will be temporary. It's going to take considerably more than 130 tons of gold per year for the next decade to blow a hole in the gold market.

2. The shorts will take this opportunity to hammer gold mercilessly from a pubic relations point of view but it won't work. Demand will remain high.

3. Sales like this can have an initially (but in this case the jury's out since they will be stretched over a ten year period) depressing effect but just like the IMF and U.S. Treasury sales of the 1970s, once the market gets used to this gold being there it will have the net effect of it not being there. It could be that the price depression in gold has already occurred and is now well behind us. Even tonight's after-hours market will be important in setting the tone for the rest of the week.

4. Of far deeper consequence are the rising oil price, the exaggerated growth of the U.S. money supply, and the potential for a severe deficit problem (even this year) if the Balkans become a quagmire, and if the U.S.economy backs off this torrid pace (thus reducing federal government revenue).

5. The Europeans will be loathe to back any IMF gold sale with the Swiss vote and potential sale now a reality. Don't forget if gold is pushed down significantly the ECB is one of the most directly effected since they have such a high proportion of their reserves in gold They will not want to do gold any more damage than has already been done.

6. It is still difficult for me to believe that the Swiss will actually sell this gold. We are at least one year away from the first ounce hitting the market and maybe more. What foreign currency would they prefer to have on reserve over gold? The dollar? The euro? Ultimately this question needs to be dealt with and there will be some very astute people doing the questioning. This vote was not the final battle on the gold question -- a situation that I think will become painfully evident to those pushing for these sales as we progress through the next twelve months.

7. Those of us who have who own physical metal might find ourselves with a buying opporunity at ridiculously low prices. But then again, where is the actual physical metal going to come from to keep the price down? Again, I think any down draft will be shortlived.

8. My advice would be to stay the course and do not allow your thinking to change as a result of the Swiss sale and all the publicity that will be generated starting this afternoon and tonight. This has all the appearances of an attempt by Switzerland to throw a monetary olive branch the direction of the European Monetary Union. In essence they are saying: "We will not let the Swiss franc remain so strong a currency that the franc will become a "safe haven" threat to the euro." The Swiss are playing a high level political game attempting to show Europe it will not be a threat to the new EU.

We shall see what the future brings. I thought I would pass along some of the thoughts going through my mind on this beautiful Sunday afternoon in the Rockies. I will be adding to my holdings of pre-1933 European gold coins if the price drops. Come to think of it, I will be adding to my holdings of pre-1933 gold coins if the price goes up.

On Friday, we battled a blizzard to get home from the office. Today, I renewed by annual battle with that despicable little white ball -- nine holes in 70 degree weather. Life goes on, no matter what the Swiss do with their gold.

CoBra(too)

(04/18/1999; 16:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4842)

Switzerland Gold and Int'l. Oil

A Reuters headline Swiss approve Gold Sales is IMO again misleading and biased. The referendum, which today was approved not even by a vast majority was predominantly about
amendment of the constitution, which for 125 y's basically didn't change. The goldlink of the SFR was outdated in effect since 1936. In order for the SNB to sell gold another referendum will be called in either 2000 or 2001 as I understand.

The excellent and enlightening insights re. oil over the last days remind me of the dire warnings of the Club of Rome back in 1980, who called for dwindling oil reserves, as well as running short of any number of natural resources. These at the time rational sounding concerns have been voiced at the peak of the most severe postwar inflationary era. 20 years later no one seems concerned by this topic, while it may unfold more viciously than ever, since investment in the resource area was almost stagnant. May it be the spin doctors experiment of free floating (in the sense of freely spinning printing presses) currencies was only at the trial stage?

@ Stranger - I have only started posting a couple of weeks ago, since I couldn't muster enough courage to intrude on such a knowledgeable table. Your years in Vienna must have been at the Amer. School in the exclusive 19th. district, dubbed Cottage. Ever come back to this part of the world pls let me know.
Thank you for your kind words on Vienna and my linguistic (I still feel "in-")capabilities. Servus mein Freund!
@Christine - apologies for my female bull (quip)- directed at USS GS's Abbey only.

CoBra(too)

(04/18/1999; 16:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4843)

Re Swiss Referendum

Dear M.K.,
while I was laboriously tiping out my last post you beat me with a much more comprehensive and fundamental analysis. Thank you!

USAGOLD

(04/18/1999; 16:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4844)

Important Add-On.....

I would like to add another consideration as part of #8 below:

Somebody ( James Turk? Farfel? Sorry. Can't remember. ) recently mused that if the Swiss move to lessen the safe haven status of the Swiss franc, it could have the effect of driving European money that historically has gone to the SwFr in monetary emergencies to gold instead. This could be unexpected result of today's vote. By the way, that change of status is effective today, not one year from now. Any European investors considering a hedge now have only gold to turn to as a legitimate alternative to paper money. The Swiss franc has already damaged its reputation.

USAGOLD

(04/18/1999; 16:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4845)

Cobra...

Please don't let me stop you. We all would like to hear the European view. You are going to get me in trouble with the knights and ladies seated at this table.

ANOTHER

(04/18/1999; 17:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4846)

THOUGHTS!

ALL,
Today my friends, this game of money, it does move to the center of focus? Many do bet the fortunes of life that this outcome will pass as "a quiet night"! It will not.
For weeks, months, days and years we have spoken of changes that come. It is of the future we have thought and forward in the many miles we have seen. Together, this new gold market was observed, by us, indeed, as a people. A strange beast it be, for many the thinker looked
backwards to see forwards as was their custom. Devoured they were as this new market did arrive, without warning, from the future!
Other thinkers, they were short and make much profits as they did ride on the "coattails" of a much larger monetary transition. The early gold was real, as a grand purpose it did have and that purpose is complete. To this day these bullion houses and traders have not the idea why their
profits were of great size. A great show is made of their analysis and reason, as supply and demand is still on the side of selling say they! Little is seen, for they have completed the task of major rulers and the "coattails" offer "ride" no more. Today, their short gold paper is supported by governments and does move from coast to coast to retain value. It seems fools beget fools and this lineage is without end! For these, the old thoughts of out fathers will be as a new truth is to be learned. Now oil will rise and the world oil currency will rise by 100 times. How so will they now explain this new supply and demand, a demand so great, it must also, have come from the future, not the past! Think they this Swiss gold be for pawns? Not this modern gold. It be bid for by kings and queens as the ECB and BIS will be first and last.
For one year this paper gold residue is held, even as the lenders make good no more. This residue of 10,000 to 14,000 tonne will never see physical gold! Settle they be forced to do as BIS always clears it's name. Perhaps a loan of Euros at six dollarsUS to one Euro will help? With
gold at $3,000+ it be the smaller write-off, no?

Gold is held in many lands in pockets of wealthy men. In the future, only the poor sole will count his gold in paper terms, terms and dreams that blew into the wind.

"some hold the very sun and know little pain, for in true life, strong hands never burn"

We watch this new gold market together, yes?

thank you
Another

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 17:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4847)

June gold opens $285.50?

Now $285.30, asking $285.50...whoops now $285.00...$285.10...make up your mind will ya!

Anyway June gold is now trading. BTW, watched Paine Weber CEO talking on Moneyline. Says lots of young investors, who represent new money, are big into the online trading. He says, "This is good for the future...."

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 17:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4848)

observation

Another is back. So is FOA. Timing? Away for a while while things got direction. Direction is clear, A and FOA are back. Signal? Maybe. Gold is now at $285.50.

What I believe Another is saying is paper won't pay, get physical and get it quick. Times they are a changing.(Dillon?)

Bid 284.70, ask $285.50? Seems someone wants it down and someone wants it up. We'll check back later for results.

Silver Tongue

(04/18/1999; 17:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 4849)

Another

Its good to hear from Another again. His veiled and hazy philosphy is interesting to contemplate and attempt to dissect. The interplay between gold and black gold is indeed an engima wrapped tightly around a conundrum.

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 17:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4850)

observation (again)

Another, you say, "...We watch this new gold market together, yes?"

Isn't this a change from when you said, "We watch this gold market together?" OR, is my memory failing? If it is not failing then this is the signal. The market in gold is new (bull as in run?) and your predictions have begun to be born, no?

Farfel

(04/18/1999; 18:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4851)

ANOTHER....Too Weird for Words.....

I am sorry if its seems disrespectful but I just can't help but crack up when I read ANOTHER's messages.

I think some of the thoughts have potential intellectual resonance...but the manner of conveying them is so "TV KUNG FU" style that one really has to wonder whether or not gold shorts plant this oddball stuff to make gold investors appear to be a collection of complete whackos.

I am sorry but I think MR. ANOTHER does more harm than good to the arguments for holding gold.

If I were ANOTHER, I would hire a speech translator to convey his thoughts in a straightforward fashion rather than the oft absurd elliptical style he utilizes.

No doubt he would garner far more respect that way.

Sorry if this offends or is simply too blunt.

CoBra(too)

(04/18/1999; 18:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 4852)

CH (Confederation Helvetica) &Thoughts

Dear M.K.,
Absolutely no chance. I would agree 110% to Your insight and well stated points, including addition. `I will try to post
opinions of CH friends tomorrow.
I have been mesmerized by thoughts of ANOTHER and FOA. (read up some of their opinions @ library). Expressing one's (subconcious) ideas and beginning to form crude opinons of the state of economic and political (basically economic too) affairs of this world, which most probable would be dismissed by the mainstream as lunatic "visions" in todays new age environment.
The boldly expressed elucite and digestible 'thoughts' of both A & FoA, though extreme in their consequences, have an inherent quality of ultimate insight.

Much appreciated - FRR

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 19:00:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4853)

Gold a moving

June gold is $285.90. Could hit $287 overnight.

Gandalf the White

(04/18/1999; 19:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 4854)

WOW -- Steve GC9M is ALIVE !

not like watching paint dry anymore --- IT IS ALIVE and the asks are running fast --- big gaps are showing tween the last trade and the asks ! should be a GREAT Monday
To ANOTHER --- THANKS for your posting -- I can read you without any problem -- do not stop posting for any reason -- others will soon learn how to read THOUGHTS !
<;-)

SteveH

(04/18/1999; 19:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 4855)

Gold a moving

Gandalf, could hit $287 in a few minutes.

Christine

(04/18/1999; 19:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4856)

Euro, oil, gold @FOA,Another, and all

On issues relating to oil I agree strongly with you FOA and Another as far as the impending long-term decline in supply of oil and rise in price. There will be some rough transitions. However, the U.S. is strong in energy natural resources, and the U.S. will convert itself to synfuels, natural gas, and even new nuclear power power plants. Nuclear power technololgy has come along way since the 70's. I believe (correct me please if I am wrong about this) that Euroland as a whole has significantly less available alternative energy resources than many other regions including the U.S., so I can speculate that Euroland is particularly concerned about energy issues. On the issue of the euro currency, I must part company with what you are saying. For one thing, I am a U.S. citizen and am not wishing the failure of the U.S. currency for that reason alone. Although I agree that because of the gold derviative shorting you are referring to, we may see some dramatic changes in the price of gold and the relative value of euro coming up soon. However, I can not agree that the euro will succeed in the end. Quite honestly I believe we are already in a very real currency war as we speak between the $US and euro. The powers that be that back the U.S. dollar are not without resources. My saying this is not in any away supporting what is going on, as I think both sides are completely lacking in any morality or concern for ordinary citizens in what they are doing. Finally, in response to the frequent observation that oil prices have been held down to give the world more time to prepare for the oil crisis, I can't see that any preparing has been done for the oil crisis. These last 2 1/2 years of completely absurd low oil prices have only done damage via deluding everyone into thinking there is plenty of oil. IMHO, prices were likely held down to facilitate preparations for introducing the euro. Lastly, I will and have defended the oil cartel as not responsible for this mess--the owners of the oil should get proper compensation. Go gold. The world will survive with new energy sources. But not if we start a whole bunch of wars over this.

AEL

(04/18/1999; 19:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4857)

Farfel: Complete Whackos

Obviously, gold investors ARE "a collection of complete whackos" -- viewed thru the lens of prevailing dogmas. That's what makes us such an endearing bunch. :)

Expecting Another to change his (her?) style of communication to eliminate odd verbal idiosyncracies would be like asking Jimmy Durante to get a nose job so as to accomodate conventional expectations as to what a nose is "supposed" to look like.

Another, if you are listening: Don't change a thing! Talk to us, and come as you are.

-- Alan

Aristotle

(04/18/1999; 20:08:08 MDT - Msg ID: 4858)

A Re-examination of Money

No one would offer a strong argument against Survival being of prime importance in a man's life. Survival is effected through meeting two essential physical needs: adequate Nutrition (food), and Protection against physical harm (clothing, shelter, warmth, self-defence). Only after these needs are satisfied can energies be devoted to other pursuits.

Why, then, do we see such an obsession for the pursuit of money, seemingly to the exclusion of all else? Without a doubt you have already answered this question--'Through the singular pursuit of Money, all of life's many survival-needs may be subsequently satisfied through purchases using that Money.'

OK, so what IS Money? To be sure, it must be something important to survival if all other elements needed for survival are willingly traded or sold in exchange for Money. After all, what sane person in a free market would lessen their security by yielding up marginal food surplus in exchange for something of LESSER value? The Price is adjusted by the seller to reflect equivalency. Similarly, the buyer has a notion of the value of his Money, and may accept or decline the seller's goods on the same grounds of percieved equivalency.

Due to the need for divisibility for various transactions, Food (notably grain) and Fossil Fuel (notably oil) would seem best suited serve the Monetary role as we have just defined. Personal experience reveals that this is not convenient on an individual basis, and human experience through the ages settled upon Gold as the most uniquely qualified element to function in the role of Money. For the sake of brevity, I will not here recount human history to prove this point--as I've already been told I tend to be a bit 'wordy.'

'Not so!', you counter, 'we use dollar-denominated Federal Reserve Notes for money these days.'
That, my friend, is a dangerous illusion. I will attempt to explain. Let's revisit the previous paragraph.

Grain and Oil were the first choices for Money, but due to limitations and requirements for individual convenience, Gold became money in a development that remains one of mankind's greatest unsung achievements. Now, if we remove the limitations of the individual--as we are free to do through the advent of the nation-state--the sheer scale of transactions facilitate nearly any variety of real goods serving as Money in something that closely resembles international barter. Ultimately Grain and Oil take the fore among the largest and the industrial nation-states. Out of necessity, however, Gold retains its role as the ultimate Money even on the national scale, as many smaller nation-states do not have either Grain or Oil in surplus to offer in trade, and the convenience of Gold is not to be shunned for bridging barter-gaps and settling balance-of-trade.

'So what of this paper cash money?' In a bold move to pacify and control its citizens, governments embarked on a pursuit for the better mouse trap...seeking the most effective way to gain a measure of control through central management of the national economy. By replacing the Natural Universal Currency (Gold Money) with fiat money subject to government and central bank controls, they now had a dog on a very short leash. Citizens are free to use this new money at their own risk in their attempt to facilitate their increased odds for survival. How far we've now come from Food, Fuel, or their Natural Proxy, Gold! The risk is evident. In using fiat money you have put your eggs into a basket that you don't hold. The economy can now be managed to your personal disadvantage for what seems to suit the government best. Your fiat money is allowed to inflate and deflate, but inflation is ever the government's easy cure for all that ails the economy. You should not be surprised to find your basket of eggs dashed against the rocks or empty upon future examination. Take a quick trip through history to see that this DOES happen...Mexico, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Germany, Russia, France, and a host in SE asia. You will note that not all of these are Third World countries.

But don't we see paper money trade on the international scene? Yes, indeed, because individuals and companies don't limit their activities to within their nation-state borders. To keep this game alive at home, it must have a life abroad, too. And just as these Managed Currencies are managed at home to benefit the nation-state, they are managed abroad for the same effect. And believe it or not, some weak nation-states fall into the same trap of naivete as individual citizens do; that of trusting overmuch the fiat currency of another nation, or else trusting their own will always be honored in international circles. In completeing this international illusion that paper is money, exchange rates are set based upon the expectation of the issuing nation-state's citizens to provide something of value per unit upon redemption. The currency's ability to buy Grain, Oil, or Gold (Real Money) in the national market reveals its value, and facilitates that day's exchange rate calculations.

So generally, nation-states do not participate in this same obsessive pursuit of Money that we see in the individual. Nation-states inevitably pursue the ultimate objectives for survival; the food, the fuel, the building supplies, NOT money. Certainly not Cash Money--they all know exactly what it is. When Money is needed, Gold is looked to as the numeraire, the standard measure of value for settlement. Your Paper Money does not reveal the value of real things, but rather real things (notably Gold) reveals the current temporary value of your paper.

Gold. Get you some (real money.) ---Aristotle

The Stranger

(04/18/1999; 21:53:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4859)

IMF Gold Sales

April 19, 1999

IMF Is Expected to Win Approval
To Sell Gold to Finance Debt Relief

By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund, at the meeting next
week of world finance ministers who oversee the lender, is likely to win
authorization to sell some of its $29.25 billion worth of gold to finance debt
relief for the world's poorest countries.

But the so-called interim committee, which will consider the idea April 27,
probably won't specify when or how much of the IMF's 103 million troy
ounces might go on the block. The committee represents IMF member
countries and guides the organization's policies; the panel's endorsement of
a sale makes it all but certain to take place.

IMF managers have recommended selling five million ounces, while the
U.S., the IMF's biggest backer, would support a sale of as much as 10
million ounces.

Global momentum is building for more generous reductions of developing
nations' debts to governments of rich countries, the IMF and World Bank.
Activists, including charities and church groups, argue that such huge debts
hinder economic progress, and that debt-relief programs are too skimpy.

Even the IMF and World Bank admit the programs "may not be
significantly reducing debt service from current levels paid," according to
an IMF/World Bank document reviewed by the IMF's board of directors
on Friday.

Debt-Relief Proposals

In recent months, seven wealthy countries have put forth separate
debt-relief proposals. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown
said last week that his government supports at least $1 billion in gold sales.
Germany, long opposed to IMF gold sales, is still undecided but has
"slightly relaxed" its position, Finance Minister Hans Eichel said Friday.

And last month, U.S. President Clinton called on industrialized countries,
the World Bank and the IMF to provide poor nations with an additional
$70 billion in debt relief, funded partly by gold sales. Leaders of the Group
of Seven major industrialized nations will probably settle on a unified
debt-relief plan at their summit in Cologne, Germany, in June.

The question, however, is how to pay for relief without reducing other aid.
"Replacing new aid by an equivalent amount of debt relief might achieve
debt sustainability, but could be seen as a cruel hoax if it did so without
providing any gain in resources available for poverty reduction," the
IMF/World Bank document said.

IMF gold holdings, provided by member countries decades ago to help
establish the financial solidity of the multilateral lender, are a tempting
resource. The IMF's stash is second only to the 262 million ounces held by
the U.S. government. At the current price of about $284 an ounce, a
10-million-ounce IMF sale would generate $2.8 billion.

Opposition in Congress

Such a sale, however, would require approval from the U.S. Congress,
where lawmakers critical of IMF rescues of Brazil and other troubled
nations are already voicing their opposition. "I don't think Congress should
or will provide quick, unqualified approval for IMF gold sales," Rep. Jim
Saxton, a New Jersey Republican who sits on the Joint Economic
Committee, said after Mr. Clinton announced his support for gold sales.

Although gold traders have been expecting an influx of IMF metal for
some time, IMF officials want to be careful not to drive its price down
suddenly, disrupting markets and cutting revenues for developing countries,
such as South Africa, that produce gold.

"We do have to take care, and we are concerned about any market
implications that a decision to sell gold may have," Jack Boorman, a senior
IMF official, said last week.

PH in LA

(04/18/1999; 22:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4860)

Greetings (with special note to Farfel)

How the forum has changed since I last posted here! (For the better, Michael) A new computer (with the usual configuration hassles, etc) and many personal projects have taken up much of my time of late. My absence has been my own loss; but I do hope to be here more often in the future.

Please, Farfel. You (along with everyone here) are more than entitled to your own thoughts. While we are interested in your reactions to ANOTHER's thoughts, that interest tends far more towards reactions to his ideas rather than to critiques of his writing style.

Your last post reminds me more of old LGB than of the best of Farfel that I always enjoy reading. I, for one, count ANOTHER and FOA as central figures to this forum, as much when they post, as when they do not. In my book, they (as much as anyone else posting here) are welcome to phrase their ideas in any style they so choose.

Proclaiming lack of disrespect in your own post does not equate with respect, something that everyone posting here deserves.

Aristotle

(04/18/1999; 22:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4861)

A Re-examination of Respect

Farfel,
As a regular participant at this most civil of forums (we don't affectionately call it The Round Table without reason), I am perplexed by the motive or justification behind your Msg 4851 to ANOTHER. This is a worldly forum at which we gather to share thoughts, opinions, and news about Gold, money, and anything closely related. The last I knew this was not an exclusive club open only to those that can lay claim to, or give the impression of speaking english as a first language. Its only membership requirements are civility and substance. Any individual capable of politely delivering a message related to the business of the Table is welcome to express their thoughts. It has been my observation that this Table is far more tolerant to attacks on Gold than it is to attacks on individuals. To suggest that someone's spelling, punctuation, grammar, or outlook renders them unworthy of participation is completely without merit or support by this general assembly of knights, squires, ladies, wizards, minstrals, and whatnot. Although I generally offer little in the manner of Technical analysis, I contribute what I thoughts with civility and at the continuing tolerance of others. I am certain that were I to undermine the respect due to others, I'd likely find myself on the outside looking in. I urge you to take notice of the prevailing Code of Conduct while in these Halls. Kind regards. ---Aristotle

Aristotle

(04/18/1999; 22:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4862)

Posting requirements

I'm glad typing speed isn't one of them, because I am obviously slower than PH in LA. Consider my post to be a Second to the Motion for observance of our Golden Code of Conduct concerning respect due to others. ---Aristotle

beesting

(04/18/1999; 23:21:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4863)

none

test

backlash

(04/18/1999; 23:36:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4864)

WELCOME BACK !

Just a short post before retiring. Having just caught up on almost a weeks' postings, my mind is in sort circuit. Wow what a bunch of super posts.

Another -
Welcome back! It is good indeed to 'hear' your THOUGHTS again. Much food for thought (oops, . . pun intended)

FOA -
Welcome back, also. You too place events in a different context.

Christine (#4856) -
YES, YES, YES. Well stated. Although I have not had time to read the full article on the oil bit, oil prices have been disproportionately low for a very long time and it is time for things to change. That is if we want any more oil.

Farfel (#4851) -
My friend, I must take issue with this referenced post. If you happen to find Another's presentations too "Kung Fu", feel free not to read them. However, to pan his postings out of hand smacks closely of censorship IMHO. Please offer your differences of opinion on issues so that all here may see and then decide for ourselves. Further, not all here at this site are of the 'English as a first language' persuasion. I personally have no problem with Another's command of the language though I must admit I need to digest the information over time to understand the intended meaning. Rather yet, to understand the new or different paths that my thinking has been directed toward. Methinks you to be an exceedingly bright person with perhaps a bit of youthful impetuousness.

beesting

(04/18/1999; 23:37:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4865)

Question for ANOTHER or FOA.

http://users.netmatters.co.uk//murabitun/Return/Noframes/00return.htmlIn the above URL it seems some people would like to return to a Gold and Silver monetary system.

My question is: In your part of the world do the small people(common people) use Gold and Silver in transactions with each other,in exchange for market goods?
Are there collectors of Gold coins,Gold bars,Tola bars,and commemorative coins?

Thank you in advance..........beesting

backlash

(04/18/1999; 23:45:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4866)

TALK ABOUT BEING SLOW - -

Not to worry Aristotle, I am slower than everyone. Yes, but I do get there eventually and as usual, PH was first.

Didn't mean to be piling on Farfel, I am just a slow typer, typist, whatever.

Best Wishes, bl

beesting

(04/19/1999; 00:21:36 MDT - Msg ID: 4867)

To AragornIII

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/current/19990416.htmSorry I've taken so long to answer your question: Can you spot the flaw in Mr. Greenspans speech? Above URL.
Had posting problems.

My guess at the flaw in the speech is; Mr.Greenspan goes on and on about competitiveness in all trade areas, market place, workforce, production, etc. but he as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve,(IMHO) has done his best to create a monopoly of the fiat money payment system worldwide.Using the U.S.Dollar as the internationally accepted medium of exchange,instead of Gold...FWIW(for what its worth)........beesting

SteveH

(04/19/1999; 02:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 4868)

Finally june gold is moving for $287, now...

$286.40. Asks are in the 40 - 46 contract range, bids in the 20's. This is seems higher than normal.

Wall Street Journal article seems a tad irresponsible. Headline isn't substantiated, in fact author supports the opposite conclusion much better when he quotes Mr. Saxton. Influence peddling at its finest. Farfel ought to see if he could get a letter to editor in the WSJ about that one, no?

Aristotle

(04/19/1999; 05:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4869)

An attempt at a helpful summary...Oil, pricing, and parallels with Gold

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/html/speech_noia.htm[My comments are in these brackets, while "Quotes" are taken from the very source of much discussion this weekend...]

Surviving the Energy Crisis: Paper Barrels, Missing Barrels, the Illustion of Technology and Depletion
National Ocean Industries Association 27th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. March 27, 1999
� Matthew R. Simmons. (You may download or view this speech, but please give credit for any portions of this speech used directly or indirectly.)
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/html/speech_noia.htm

[I hope this summary reveals only the vital elements for those who don't have the inclination to sift through the more technical oil biz info. Throughout this summary, you will likely notice a remarkable parallel between oil and Gold, particularly in regard to perceptions and pricing. As you read, mentally substitute 'Gold' for 'oil' (It should be obvious, though, where this would not specifically hold.) Comments not related to pricing are simply things you should know for general understanding of how the world works.]

"If there is any excuse to why so few analysts even understood this issue, the drop in oil prices was so violent that most people simply assumed the world had to be in the midst of an oil flood.
... otherwise, the price would not be so low. As I read this pathetic plea, my response was that it represented a classic case of circular logic. We might have accidentally created a gigantic house of mirrors where bad data creates shorts on oil contracts, which brings prices down, which creates even more bearish data!"

"This technology myth has been repeated so often that most energy writers are certain it is true. The Economist writer arguing that we were possibly heading to $5 oil had clearly heard this story from too many seemingly knowledgeable people to even question whether the story had a grain of truth.
... Let me assure all of you that there is nothing normal about $10 oil. This price is far too low and quickly destroys virtually any oil producer's incentives to keep supply in place.
There are no "well-placed participants" for an era of $10 or lower oil just as there are no car manufacturers who can produce fine autos for $10,000 a car. The economics could work for a few of the Middle East producers if they have no social costs to absorb. But, to a country like Saudi Arabia, social costs are as real as overhead is to Exxon or Shell. So, $10 per barrel oil does not work anywhere. It simply destroys the oil industry."

[*****OK, now this section is the real key****]

"If the oil glut is possibly an illusion, and if the real cost to produce oil is far higher than $10 per barrel oil allows, then why did the industry suffer through the worst collapse ever? The answer is simple. We now live in an era of paper barrels. Oil prices are set on the floor of the NYMEX. Whatever the paper barrel prices end up each day becomes the de facto cash price for oil almost every day.

While few industry analysts really understand how paper barrels work, they are now the industry's pricing mechanism, for better or for worse. There is also a remarkable series of data points showing the impact that the hedge and commodity funds, who actively bet on oil, have had in influencing paper barrel oil prices.

Over the course of the past two-and-one-half years, in the few times when the funds had a net long position in NYMEX crude contracts, oil prices had risen, generally by a wide margin. Conversely, when they changed their view and turn back into net short holders, oil prices fell, often by a lot. Whether this makes any sense is an entirely different matter. But, the data is straightforward and hard to refute.

In the world of paper barrel pricing, oil could drop to $5 per barrel. In fact, paper barrel prices could go anywhere. The system has no circuit breakers. There is not even the mechanism to only short an oil contract on an up-tick, like exists in the rules of shorting common stocks. But, paper barrel pricing only lasts until supply and demand meet. Then, fundamentals regain the lead. Real physical supply and demand constraints always win out over paper markets. Oil prices would have ultimately have risen, even had OPEC not engineered this week's production cuts, because $10 oil will have a savage effect on the world's current oil supply."

[This next section is shades of our Fifth Horseman weekend. Notice the 20 year flashback--a time when Gold was priced at its all-time high.]

"The irony of having our first taste of petroleum shortages in 20 years hitting home as early as this summer is the angst this would trigger throughout America. And if it happens, everyone will immediately blame the domestic oil industry and OPEC for creating this mess.
Sadly, both the domestic oil industry and OPEC were innocent by-standers and were rapidly becoming insolvent as this whole mess played out. If it happens, it is all because oil fell to $10 per barrel. The real villains turn out to be the illusions of technology, the "IEA's infamous Missing Barrels", the NYMEX paper barrels..."

[Notice how interchangable Gold and oil are in this final section...knowing that Gold's usefulness is found in its funtion as money, par excellence, which greases the wheels of the world economy--powered in turn by oil!]

"I have heard the oil business described as just another commodity so often that I finally decided to look up what the definition of a commodity is. According to the Concise Oxford Dictionary, a commodity is one of two things. It is either an article or raw material that can be bought and sold, in contrast to a service. Its second definition is 'a useful thing.'
It turns out that most everything we buy is simply a commodity in one form or another: Microsoft's software, personal computers, diamond rings, and even cars. However, hydrocarbons might rank as the world's most precious, costly and certainly most useful commodity, even exceeding the Internet!"

YGM

(04/19/1999; 07:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 4870)

Farfel & #4851

Sorry, I don't have a speech translator and none of the
talents of Hemingway, but I will say "Opinions are Like
Ass_oles" Everybody Has One! --- Why not attack the
Message instead of the Messenger!!--YGM

Cage Rattler

(04/19/1999; 07:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 4871)

re Simmons oil speech

FWIW, a colleague of mine mentioned that his reports, writings have been very bullish crude for several years, since crude was 20$ then 27$ then 11$ now 17$. I'm not questioning the sincerity or the validity of his points.

The Stranger

(04/19/1999; 09:01:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4872)

Farfel

Perhaps Farfel is being a little hard on our friend Another. I don't think Farfel's problem is really with Another, however. All of us create posts of dubious worth from time to time (witness this one, perhaps). What rankels is the exaggerated reverence accorded by so many of our local true believers to posts that are overlong and deliberately vague, what the noble canamami once referred to as "half baked ideas served up as haute cuisine".

USAGOLD

(04/19/1999; 09:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4873)

Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Up Despite Swiss Vote

MARKET UPDATE (4/19/99): Gold advanced again this morning despite yesterday's
Swiss vote to water down gold-backing on the franc. The Asian led the buying with Europe
weighing in also on the positive side. London was up nearly $1 in overnight trade. Also,
there were reports out of Rep. Jim Saxton's office that proposed IMF gold sales will have a
rough go of it in the Congress. Saxton heads up the all important Joint Economic
Committee which will hold hearings on the legislation. Trades in Europe and Asia were
taking into account that if the Swiss sales do occur following the complicated Constitutional
vote taken Sunday, it won't be for at least a year and then the Swiss central bank will sell
about 130 tons per year over a decade long period, so as not to disturb the overall market.

The following was reported by Bridge News this morning. "The Swiss National Bank will
not begin selling any of its excess gold reserves after Swiss voters approved the new
constitution in Sunday's referendum, SNB spokesman Werner Abegg said. Through the
poll the Swiss franc's peg to gold is abolished. 'At the very earliest, gold sales will only be
possible in the first half of 2000. And even when we are allowed to, we will proceed very
cautiously, taking the market situation into account,' he said.

In other news, Chris Thompson, Chairman of South African based Gold Fields Ltd -- the
world's second largest gold miner -- echoed concerns raised here on several occasions
about false rumors and propaganda planted in the financial press as a means to holding
down the gold price. His firm has become the target of rumor-mongering in the gold market
in recent weeks, and on Friday Gold Fields decided it was time to do something about it.
Thompson said that his company had found necessary to respond to allegations that it has
recently forwarded a large amount of gold. It was simply untrue. Said Thompson, "These
rumors appear to be emanating from New York based bullion dealers...The seeming
explanation for these unfounded and persistent rumors is a desire by the short end of the
market, or the dealers, to talk the gold price down."

As we have said many times here, you must read the gold stories in the mainstream press
critically. Quite often it is the major Wall Street firms that have the press' ear and it is these
same major firms in many cases that have established the greatest short position in gold on
record. Many of the people quoted daily in the most widely read gold reports have an ax to
grind and all too often the financial press allows them to grind away without questioning
their objectivity. Gold Fields, I believe, is one of many mining firms that has been
victimized by these practices as well as their stockholders. Mr. Thompson's reaction is the
first, but probably not the last, among the world's top mining companies. More and more
mining firms will begin to realize the source of their discomfiture as better informed
stockholders press upon them the need to act against the out of control short side of the
market. Some balance in the reporting is not only healthy; it is required.

Standard Charter London says: "...gold is steady this morning and looks set to test the
100-day moving average just above $285. If broken it would signal a move to the 200-day
MA at $288.

In Brief (4/19/99).....The euro is plummeting today and this may be having an indirect
effect on the gold price. European money which has always viewed Switzerland as a safe
haven, must now look twice. It is not lost on the more astute in Europe that part of
Switzerland's watering down of gold backing could be the equivalent of throwing a
monetary olive branch the way of the new European Central Bank. What they are saying in
effect is that they do not want the franc to be a safe haven alternative to the new euro. This,
in turn, enhances gold's traditional status as the safe haven currency of choice........All
very interesting continental politics.................Royal Oak has gone into receivership and
the board has resigned..........................Serbs and Albanians exchanged gun fire at
their border last night -- an indicator that the war might move onto Albanian soil. Speaking
of Albania, Hillary Clinton is planning a trip there to see the misery first-hand.........CPM
Precious Metals Investor (not related) says that "These (1970s) IMF and U.S. gold sales
totaling 42.1 million ounces, coincided with largest increase in gold prices in history. The
fact that this much gold came into the market at that time did no limit prices. In fact, the way
in which these sales were handled -- public auctions -- generally is believed to have
contributed to the rise in gold prices, by serving as a focal point for international attention
on gold.".........USAGOLD Comment: Perhaps that is the psychology at work in today's
market..................................Bridge News reports that in the Asian gold market
overnight short covering was triggered as soon as the price dropped in reaction to the Swiss
vote -- a strong indicator that gold might be in the midst of a solid
turnaround..........Interesting in the Bridge News version of the Gold Fields story, no
mention was made of the bullion firms in New York they feel are responsible for spreading
false rumors............The strong rally in base metals is being proffered by some as a
portent of good things to come in commodities across the boards.........MK

If you would like to receive our newsletter FREE of charge, please go to the ORDER
FORM. The latest edition is now ready for distribution. If you do not receive the
newsletter, you might not want to miss this month's issue which covers the oil situation as
it relates to the gold market.

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 12:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 4874)

Euro embattled at US midday as ECB pledges neglect

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990419/3a.htmlShowing little concern, Euro managers seemingly giving the dollar all the rope it needs...

T. Remital

(04/19/1999; 12:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4875)

strike up the band---

The STAGE is now set for-- BULL MARKET IN GOLD--DOW IS IN A BLOW OFF--NASD SINKING---
THE MONEY IS GOING TOWARD RESOURCE STOCKS---INFLATION WILL RETURN IN A BIG WAY---

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 12:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4876)

Euro sinks on Kosovo fears

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/events/the_launch_of_emu/euro_latest/newsid_323000/323303.stmSuggestions that huge US balance of payments deficit will eventually weaken the dollar

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 12:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 4877)

Eurozone deficit pledge

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_321000/321404.stmSetting the house in order

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 12:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4878)

Nato 'may have killed refugees'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_323000/323165.stmUncertainty rules the day, instilling public confidence(?)in all that NATO does

The Stranger

(04/19/1999; 13:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4879)

T. Remital

I'm with you, pal. It has been a long time coming.

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 13:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4880)

FWN SNB: No Swiss Gold Sales Before H1 2000, Despite Lifted Peg

By Conny Lotze, Bridge News
Zurich-April 19--The Swiss National Bank will not begin
selling any of its excess gold reserves after Swiss voters
approved the new constitution in Sunday's referendum, SNB
spokesman Werner Abegg said. Through the poll the Swiss
franc's peg to gold is abolished.
"At the very earliest, gold sales will only be possible
in the first half of 2000. And even when we are allowed to,
we will proceed very cautiously, taking the market situation
into account," he said.
Abegg said although Sunday's vote lifted the franc-gold
link, other legislative hurdles would still have to be
overcome before any gold sales can be initiated.
The crucial law that will allow gold sales for the
limited use of the cantonal and federal government coffers
is called the "monetary and currency law." This will in
effect allow the SNB to revalue its 2,590 tonnes of gold
reserves at near-market prices and free them to be sold.
The bill to this law will proceed through parliament
this fall and is likely to come to a conclusive vote in
parliament's winter session.
Then, 90 days have to pass, during which opponents of
the law can collect 50,000 signatures and initiate a
referendum on the law. If no such move occurs, the law goes
into effect.
In the past, the franc's peg to gold meant that the
Swiss National Bank's gold reserves had been fixed in 1932
at a price of 4,595 francs per kilogram (around US $96 per
ounce at current exchange rates). For the central bank that
meant it had to hold 2,590 tonnes of gold in reserves in
order to cover the required 40% of notes in circulation.
However, the requirement that 40% of notes in
circulation needed to be backed by gold reserves was already
reduced to 25% in a revision of the National Bank Law in
June 1997.
Although the SNB obviously held more than enough gold to
fulfill this requirement, it was not allowed to sell gold
because of the franc's peg to gold in the constitution.
This was lifted with Sunday's vote. A separate monetary
article, describing in detail how excess gold should be
dealt with, will later be inserted in the constitution.
This monetary article is separate and different from the
"monetary and currency law" in that it will determine what
to do with excess gold that is not used by the cantonal and
federal governments. It will require a referendum to be
passed and added to the constitution.
Once this is passed, the government could go ahead and
initiate a law to create the humanitarian Solidarity
Foundation, which it wants to finance with the sale of 500
tonnes of gold.
The Solidarity Foundation is separate from the so-called
Holocaust Fund, which is a privately administered fund to
help Holocaust victims and their heirs.

A TENTATIVE TIMETABLE RELATING TO POTENTIAL GOLD SALES:
--Jun 1999: Draft amendment allowing use of gold sales
receipts for non-public purposes put to
parliament. Approval paves way for mandatory referendum.

--Jun 1999: Parliament begins deliberation on new monetary
and currency law: Allows gold sales for public
coffers only.

--Dec 1999: Parliament could pass new monetary and currency
law. Referendum optional depending on level of
opposition.--Mar/Apr 2000: If no referendum on the monetary and
currency law was initiated in past 90 days,
the SNB could legally begin to sell gold.

--Mar 2000: Referendum on separate currency reform in
constitution: Approval would allow gold sales to
finance non-Swiss beneficiaries, such as the
humanitarian Solidarity Foundation.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 13:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4881)

FWN Closing N.Y. Metals

New York-April 19-FWN--The precious metals complex
ended the session on firmer footing here today, with the
biggest gains coming in silver and palladium.
Gold managed a slight gain despite Swiss approval of a
referendum to sever the link between the metal and the Swiss
franc, with contacts explaining that this was largely
factored into the market.
May silver added 11 cents to $5.15.
"I think silver is benefiting from some of the overall
strength in the base-metals sector that we've seen lately,
with copper and aluminum moving up," said William O'Neill,
director of futures research for Merrill Lynch. In the last
10 days, May copper has bounced from an April 9 low of 62.80
cents to a high today of 70.50, a 12.26% gain.
Silver has also been boosted by technical factors,
explained O'Neill.
"We went through some moving-average resistance around
$5.14 today," he said. "We're getting to areas where
technical buying is coming into play. It's more of a
technical play than anything else, but the recent strength
in the base metals is also affecting that market."
June gold added 70 cents to $286.30 despite the Swiss
vote severing the link between the Swiss franc and gold.
"The gold market is doing nothing," said O'Neill. "It's
just sitting in a very tight range.
The Swiss referendum is seen as the first step toward
the government's plans to sell roughly 1,300 metric tons of
gold, although certain legislative measures must still be
approved before this can occur.
A Swiss National Bank spokesman said at the "very
earliest," gold sales would not be possible until the first
half of 2000. "And even when we are allowed to, we will
proceed very cautiously, taking the market situation into
account," said the spokesman, Werner Abegg.
O'Neill said gold was not hurt by the Swiss referendum
result, because "that was fully discounted. Everyone knew
that was going to pass...And the actual sales wouldn't take
place until (at least) a year from now. They still have to
go through another legislative phase before it is officially
approved."
The Merrill Lynch official put support for June gold at
$284 and resistance at $288.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

MarkeTalk

(04/19/1999; 13:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 4882)

NASDAQ Plummets

The rout evident today in the NASDAQ stocks (primarily inhigh flying internet stocks) started last Wednesday. They've tried to pump this balloon back up since Wednesday to no avail. Look out!

Here's a heads up for future bear markets in this highly leveraged paper asset environment:

There always comes a day when the piper must be paid. The traders -- big and small -- are getting margin calls. Having no back-up resources to talk about, the traders are forced to liquidate. This sell-off is likely to feed off itself and prices are likely to plummet. CNBC just had a News Flash that the NASDAQ is experiencing its second worst selloff in hisory -- Now down 135+ and falling fast.

Look up! What's that in the sky? Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Noooooooooooooooooo....it's a falling safe. Margin calls are not restricted just to the NASDAQ. This NASDAQ phenomenon will spill over to the DOW.

Get some gold.

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 14:09:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4883)

Brazil's foreign reserves fall $137 mln Friday

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990419/7h.htmlBiggest one-day drop since daily reporting of reserves began March 4th, 1999

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 14:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4884)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News New York--Apr 19--
Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch, noted that silver was participating
in the general strength seen in base metals like copper and aluminum. There was
strong speculative buying and silver is looking positive from a chart
perspective after moving over $5.15, the 40-day moving average, he said.
"We're seeing a bottom in copper and aluminum and silver is reflecting that
optimism," O'Neill noted. As an industrial metal, silver can sometimes part
company with gold and react to big swings in base metal prices.

He noted that gold lagged behind silver today, partly because the dollar has
stayed strong against a number of other currencies. He said that there are also
"various expectations" of sales by the International Monetary Fund, Swiss, other
central banks and producers.
Nevertheless, gold showed little reaction to Sunday's Swiss referendum which
approved a reform of the country's constitution, including the abolition of the
franc-gold peg. While some suggest that the full impact of the referendum, which
is another step in the freeing of 1,300 tonnes of gold for possible sale, has
not yet hit the market, others said Sunday's step was already priced in until
more news on the timing of the sales emerges.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $286.3, up 70c; RANGE: $286.5-284.6

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 14:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4885)

War and Gold

Moscow--Apr 19--Russian President Boris Yeltsin said today Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic would not capitulate over NATO strikes on
Yugoslavia. He said he was going to tell US President Bill Clinton about
this on the phone today.

Seoul--Apr 19--Trading of South Korea's gold futures jumped 300% to 529,947
contracts during a trial run held Apr 6-14 compared with the previous trial
run, according to Korea Futures Exchange (KOFEX)

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 15:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 4886)

The Embedded Processor SECONDARY Clock Problem

http://www.webpal.org/Gas.htmA special treatment of the Y2K problem for the technical-minded among us

YGM

(04/19/1999; 15:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4887)

Beach & Confirmation on Secondary Clocks and Y2K.

http://www.webpal.org/BEACH1.htmAlot of KNOWLEDGABLE confirmation on this theory of
Secondary Clocks and Information Layering in Embedded
Chips. Y2K will be devastating to Refineries if this scenario
holds true, not to mention ALL factories.---Yardini and his
predictions of recession will prove to be a very humble
understatement.IMO!---YGM

YGM

(04/19/1999; 15:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 4888)

T. Crier

Are you sending out telepathic signals or what. I posted before reading. Good combination of posts and timing tho!
--YGM.

The Stranger

(04/19/1999; 15:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4889)

XAU

The XAU index of gold mining stocks is up 23% in just seven sessions. Bullion is up about 4%. This comes, as T. Remital says, as part of an overall move toward resource stocks. If fears of currency collapse or Y2K or any of the other usual suspects were to blame, wouldn't bullion have led the rally?
No, this is about the only horseman that will really matter in the end- the return of inflation, brought to you in the same manner it always has been, by aggressive monetary expansion.

If you own physical gold, do not despair. Soon all of us will share in this new bull market. But if anyone still believes we face deflation and financial meltdown, please speak now or forever hold your peace. After all, if you don't understand what is happening, how will you know when to sell?

YGM

(04/19/1999; 15:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4890)

Christine, Another and Others:

I have been loosely following your Oil related posts and
others of late. Have you considered that by cutting back
on the flow of oil ( if Refineries are in fact doing so) they
not only are able to drive prices up but also find leeway
to stockpile reserves prior to fall /99 and potential impact
of Y2K and Refinery shutdowns.--YGM

Aristotle

(04/19/1999; 15:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4891)

End-of-day 'snapshots' fail to tell the story

The DOW takes a blow to its midsection and drops to its knees in a heap, but you'd never know that from the final number (-53).
Volume was huge. A lot of people moved a lot of product today (1.2 billion shares).
Where the unwritten story is found is in the intraday numbers. People showed up this morning buying with a vengence, driving the DOW up 272 points(!), and that's what would have been in all the headlines had the market day ended shortly past noon. But it wasn't to be. Some measure of common sense returned, and people wanted out. From that noon high, the DOW easily gave away 325 points in the remaining half day. The headlines should read:

"DOW Drops 325 in Biggest Washout Seen in 1999"

The Nasdaq had no trouble writing its own unambiguous headline today. "Nasdaq Falls over 5.5%"

---Aristotle

TownCrier

(04/19/1999; 16:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 4892)

Internet stocks crash to earth

http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/the_economy/newsid_323000/323301.stmOdd. You knew this would happen, but your friends didn't.

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 19:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 4893)

Aristotle's camera sees differently than mine !

(As my camera saw the slaughter.) The DOW started out the day being pushed up by the Brokers and Floor Traders while the dipsters watched --- when the DOW was up over a 100 points the dipsters could stand it no longer and jumped in with both feet ! the DOW reached 200+ and the Brokers and Floor Traders started laying off big sizes of lots as the frenzy reached its peak. When the dipsters were nearly all fat and broke, the Brokers and Floor Traders started short selling on upticks to hold the peak a little longer. Then when the maximum shearing of the sheeple had been obtained, the Brokers and Floor Traders just went out to lunch and let the rest of the action of the day take care of itself. It DID, and when the Brokers and Floor Traders returned from the LONG lunch to find that the DOW was now down 90 points, they jumped back in to short sell on upticks for desert, and brought the DOW up to only a 50 point drop for the day. What do you think will happen tomorrow at the opening --- DOWN ? Now would not that be a surprise ? Step right up to be sheared Sheeple !!! I have my camera ready !
<;-)

Camel

(04/19/1999; 19:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4894)

Personal attacks

I for one am very interested in hearing what Another and FOA have to say and don't appreciate all the snipping and personal attacks. Its hard enough to do anything anyway but if you have to put up with that kind of garbage, why even bother.

FOA

(04/19/1999; 19:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 4895)

THE NEW BULL MARKET!

Aristotle Hello!
Your post (4/19/99; 5:16:35MDT - Msg ID:4869) pointed out the most compelling part of his speech. As he said:
" Whatever the paper barrel prices end up each day becomes the de facto cash price for oil almost every day."
It brings to light a key component of how modern commodity values are set. No, not all items, just the most important ones. Paper oil, paper copper, paper gold, they all are manipulated much the way currencies are. Just understanding this to be true brings us closer to grasping how our new economic world works! Most young investors today, follow "technical analysis" and supply/demand" factors when studying the merits of commodity based companies (be they gold/silver stocks or oil stocks). Yet they become shocked to see these enterprises stumble as their product is manipulated, in the face of, what should be positive trends.
The old story always told us that real things rise in price as the currency is inflated. Yet, today the dollar has been inflated off the map and commodities fall in price. The old structure was changed not when the dollar became the chief reserve currency, but when it became the only
money that settled MAJOR commodities, worldwide. This trend began in the early 70s and has accelerated to the end time of today. In doing so, futures no longer responded to the underlying supply/demand of product, but reacted more so to the supply and demand for dollars!
I repeat. It has been the norm for world currency markets to be manipulated for many years. What we have come to today, is that major commodity futures are held and sold as a proxy for the underlying currency of the country of origin, not the actual product! This is abstract reasoning
for a modern world, I know. However, it is the only way you can inflate a world currency during a bull economic run without the citizens dumping it. In no small way gold and oil are very much part of this. They are so economized by the currency markets that the economy could shrink 50% and
their real value still must rise by a large multiple. Truly, we must understand that the demand for gold was off the charts years ago! Long before US citizens started their current coin buying spree. Oil and gold prices in US$ have fallen as investors have increasingly opted to carry the forward loans of these products instead of the actual item in storage. Again, this is how a government "economizes" a commodity by contracting it in "inflated currency" securities.
Now, today, we see the start of the greatest financial transition in history! That being, the collapse of a Global world currency reserve in terms of real things! Do not confuse this with the dollar strength against other money as all other world currency must by design be based on dollar
reserve and settlement. No, this downfall will come about as investors attempt to redenominate their commodity holdings into another reserve, the Euro! Why? Because the real value (and dollar price) of oil is about to be shown, worldwide as the Euro is given a major percentage of oil contract settlement! When events show how week the dollar truly is in oil terms, all other commodities will follow. Gold, the only true oil currency, will rise as never before! Many will
argue that this metal has no value for use at these new prices! True, for jewelry use it will be useless, but as the currency of Kings and wealthy citizens, it will be Priceless! The drama is about to begin!

Good Luck, my friend FOA

The Stranger

(04/19/1999; 20:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4896)

Gandalf

Gandalf, I missed you today. I wondered if maybe you were off on vacation or something. Anyway, glad to see you are still around.

There is another explanation for what happened today that may also be of interest. The market has finally run out of new IRA deposits. The contribution deadline was April 15. The exact same thing happened last year on the exact same date- April 19. People don't always realize what's pushing things up. I suspect many were in there buying this morning not knowing that the flow of new money had already abated.

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 20:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4897)

FOA's Bull Market in Oil announcement

FOA -- Was the Freudian slip of a "week" dollar to indicate that the length of time before the start of THE SHOW is about a "weak" ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 20:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 4898)

"Hi" there Stranger !

Yes, I was out slaying Orcs and have returned just in time to see the shearing begin. I had forgotten about sending in all those dead exPresidents and the depleation of the IRA's having an annual effect ! Thanks for reminding us all. Tis nice and warm around the RoundTable now -- so I shall just sit and await FOA's and ANOTHERS eye opening truths as THE SHOW begins. Do not all rush for the seats at the same time as Goldfly and Aragorn III fill the doorway quite well.
<;-)

NORTH OF 49

(04/19/1999; 20:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 4899)

Not feeling well

Banker neighbour looking a little pale this evening--doesn't want to talk about it.

No49

SteveH

(04/19/1999; 20:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 4900)

Somebody please post june gold price, I can't get to it.

Thanks.

SteveH

(04/19/1999; 20:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 4901)

I don't like the looks of this...angst increasing...

The s..t is about to hit the proverbial fan. Anybody else have this gut feeling?

These words are omens: Many will
argue that this metal has no value for use at these new prices! True, for jewelry use it will be useless, but as the currency of Kings and wealthy citizens, it will be Priceless! The drama is about to begin!

SteveH

(04/19/1999; 20:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4902)

North of 49

Get him to talk (nicely of course), we gots to know.

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 20:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4903)

GC9M for Steve

Unch at 286.3 range 286.2 to 286.5 fair volume
BUT someone dropped a load on SPOT the dog downunder/and-or in HK over a $ loss but rebounded well to about - 0.20
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 20:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 4904)

GC9M for Steve

Unch at 286.3 range 286.2 to 286.5 fair volume
BUT someone dropped a load on SPOT the dog downunder/and-or in HK over a $ loss but rebounded well to about - 0.20
<;-)

SteveH

(04/19/1999; 20:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4905)

Gandalf, way to go.

Still say $287 is possible tonight, or was that last night?

Gata retains firm.
FOA & Another are back with more urgent messages than ever before.
COT at all time high to the positive.
Oil moving up.
Balkans not settled.
Commodities including silver rising.

Is it time?

Gandalf the White

(04/19/1999; 20:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4906)

North of 49

Get out the cans of BLUE, Ay
Loosen his tongue !!!
<;-)

NORTH OF 49

(04/19/1999; 21:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 4907)

Ok-Ok--she's a dirty job

but I guess somebody's gotta do it!

No49

(04/19/1999; 22:35:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4908)

Todays events

What a shocker! I actually thought we would see a big drop in the market last Friday, and when we didn't I thought, Okay I was wrong one more time. This morning I caught an early plane to the other side of the state for meetings and was away from a computer and the markets for most of the day. While waiting to begin a meeting I happened to pass a computer screen that showed the Dow up 250, I remember thinking this is beyond lunatic stage! I get home this evening and after planting most of my garden come in and check on just where it all ended up. I look up Yahoo and see the Dow down 50 points! If today's action doesn't go down as a key reversal day from a technical standpoint, I don't know what will! Even the Internet stocks on the NASDAQ achieved a little bit of sanity today. This all happened with large maybe record volume numbers. I suspect a few people out there are pondering how to deal with those margin calls that will be coming bright and early in the morning. It is times like these that gold ownership provides some comfort. I have basically been out of the equities markets since March/April of 1998 with the exception of some Gold Stocks so while I was feeling pretty good last September/ October when I loaded up a little more, it hasn't been too fun since. We may now be at a point in time when the real value of gold begins to get some recognition again.

NORTH OF 49

(04/19/1999; 22:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 4909)

Back from the front!

Sheeesh!! Been a lot of things in my lifetime, but this is the first crack at being a mercenary.

Only had time for a brief encounter with the subject Banker, as we both have early appointments tommorrow, but his big concern is that the markets have "lost momentum." Now this is not an irrational guy, and it's not like he's a novice trader or anything. He is worried that we ARE at a junction here, and that the investing public is not geared up or experienced enough to deal with such a transition that may be about to take place. "Nobody knows how to protect capitol anymore--it's just been too easy to make money for the last ten years."

I can see what it is that he's not saying. We both live in a small town. Are you ready for this??--POP. 189!) How does this guy, who knows everybody in town, belongs to a couple of service clubs, golfs with the residents----how does this guy knock on their door and say "Joe we have a serious problem with your arrear mortgage." He has been the banker here for years, and I feel he is really scared for the welfare of some of the people that have been drawn into this rollercoaster. He seems to have a fear of assuming the role of one of the "Horsman" through no fault of his own.

Added to that, he is a bit of a tech analyst, and feels that his beloved Bank of Nova Scotia stock is toying at failing fifth wave. To that end, he apparently dumped some today. I asked him if he just parked cash and he said--and get this guys and gals "No I rolled it into our precious metal fund."

Now, folks, is that what you wanted to hear or what!!!

No49

Christine

(04/19/1999; 22:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4910)

Gold, euro--@ FOA, Aristotle, all

Aristotle--Thanks for your good summary of the Simmons article--I read the whole article--but your summary made it much clearer. FOA--thank you for sharing your views in such a forthright manner. If your information is certain,I will put my vote in for June as the time we will see the European CB's set the POG free and we really start to see the big move. After thinking about it for awhile, I accept that as FOA suggests, the whole oil cartel may be acting in concert to support the euro. It appears that the oil cartel has just recently made an orchestrated move to also set the price of oil free now that the euro has been launched. Again, the timing of these things does support what FOA is saying. The rest of what I have to say is just rudimentary in my mind yet, and cannot be well-argued, but maybe will trigger a pro or con response in someone else that will shed light. For many reasons I cannot accept that "the powers that be" are planning that the euro will be the ultimate world currency. I believe we are living in a time of great deception upon us all, regardless of nationality. We will all be harmed in the end if we do not become more aware. I do think that the euro may function as an intermediate step to pressure other nations into political/financial unions that use a common electronic currency. What are the biggest threats to the most powerful governments/financiers going forward that would motivate them to orchestrate such a scheme as I am suggesting? The threats would be the decline of oil supply, Asia and specifically the Chinese government, and the internet. The internet has been projected by many as a future cause of the decline of the political and financial power of governments. Has anyone seen anything on how the powerful may be expected to react to the internet. Those with great political/financial power cannot be expected to just passively stand aside and hand over their control.

Aristotle

(04/20/1999; 00:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 4911)

Ahhhhhhhh...take a DEEP breath.

Overall, a great day. Gold was immune to the Swiss news, and the markets gave us all that cheap thrill that only a goldheart can know. Is that sad, or what??

Gandalf, I'd say our cameras recorded the action in a very similar manner. Isn't this is what my film showed when developed?
'The headlines should read:
"DOW Drops 325 in Biggest Washout Seen in 1999"

The Nasdaq had no trouble writing its own unambiguous headline today. "Nasdaq Falls over 5.5%"'

Christine, thanks for the compliment, and thank YOU for taking my advice and joining the Table.

FOA, my friend, you sure make me jumpy! The words are thrilling for what they entail, but I'm not sure if my years of cheap Gold acquisition is a habit I can easily part with. As you might well imagine, I have gotten quite fond of that regular influx of ounces into my personal treasury. At the end this inexpensive Gold heyday, I'm sure that my final assessment will be that my treasure is O' so small, yet represents my life's stored productivity, and handsomely rewarding my choice of Currency.

I am inclined to think that when Gold starts its move, it will be in such great demand that nearly overnight it will not be available. That is what makes me jumpy, and is why I try to warn my friends that the time to by Gold is well in advance of The Move. Due to the supply chain and delays built into the ordering process, I can easily imagine giving MK a call only to be told there is no hope of laying hands on the Gold, or else being told a week later that the suppliers have all reneged on their deliveries. I think that would be the most helpless feeling in the world, and the point at which a paper dollar would be the most reviled thing on Earth.

The calm with which the ECB watches and lightly remarks upon the falling euro speaks volumes in support of your comments. Much like a poker player that knows he has an unbeatable hand, there is careful work to be done in placing the bets before the final victory dance on the table. Might the euro's drop against the dollar actually be advantagous for the final position--to spend away the massive dollar holdings in the foriegn exchange reserves for any combination of euros, Gold, etc.? It would seem that just as oil and Gold have been driven to their low levels by short sellers, the euro has travelled that same path with the same guide. When the time comes to square the books, the world will seem awash in dollars chasing around preciously rare euros, Gold, and oil. World trade wins while the dollar answers for its past mistakes.

The individual survival plan for anyone having their wealth denominated in dollar terms can be summed up in two phrases.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Aragorn III

(04/20/1999; 00:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4912)

Correcting the flaw in Fed Chairman Greenspan's Trade and Technology speech

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/current/19990416.htmbeesting, well done! By your words you have identified "the U.S.Dollar as the internationally accepted medium of exchange,instead of Gold" to be the flaw in the speech. Let us take another look at this good speech, and we shall supply the omitted element for the benefit of our friends. I have excerpted only the points necessary to convey the message, and use the popular convention that my own interjections are within [brackets].

"The evidence is overwhelmingly persuasive that the massive increase in world competition--a consequence of broadening trade flows--has fostered markedly higher standards of living for almost all countries who have participated in cross-border trade. I include most especially the United States."

[This comment, 'I include most especially the United States' sets the stage for this "flaw of omission", but assures us the Chairman does indeed understand this element omitted upon conclusion.]

"This is the process by which wealth is created incremental step by incremental step. It presupposes a continuous churning of an economy in which the new displaces the old."

"But the adjustment process is wrenching to an existing workforce made redundant largely through no fault of their own. It may be argued that all workers should have the foresight to recognize long-term job opportunity shifts and move in advance of obsolescence. This regrettably is a skill not in great abundance--among business managers or the economists who counsel them as well as among workers."

"Typically, antidumping duties are levied when foreign average prices are below [local] average cost of production."

"Thwarting competition, by placing barriers to imports, will prevent the needed transitions of the productive capital stock of the United States and other nations that enable it to continuously concentrate on producing those goods and services most desired by consumers."

"I regret that trade policy has been inextricably linked with job creation. We try to promote free trade on the mistaken ground that it will create jobs. The reason should be that it enhances standards of living through the effects of competition on productivity."

[Here the Chairman demonstrates his good understanding and proper focus on *real things*. Access to goods at the lowest possible price by an entire population should be recognized by policy makers as more beneficial to a nation than are artificial props to benefit a minority sector of industry which results in unnecessary higher prices for all. Strategic issues aside, should access to low cost materials be denied to a population solely to support those local few endeavoring at high-cost production? To be sure, petroleum falls in this category. In contrast, the U.S. could be the undisputed low-cost producer of the world's grain if farmers are assured access to petroleum from the low-cost producer. On a personal scale, imagine if you were not allowed to shop at the cheapest store in your city, or hire the low-cost contractor outside your neighborhood.]

"It is difficult to find credible evidence that trade has impacted the level of total employment in this country over the long run. Indeed, we are currently experiencing the widest trade deficit in history with a level of unemployment close to record lows."

"It is the relative balance of supply and demand in a competitive market economy that determines the mix of employment. When exports fall or imports rise, domestic demand and relative prices have invariably adjusted in the long run to leave total employment relatively unaffected. As economists like to say, all imports are eventually paid for with exports."

[Here we start to see the beginning of the "flaw of omission". Consider that the U.S. exports a great deal of dollars to pay for its imports, benefiting "most especially the United States" An exported good represents the offsetting (and mutually beneficial) payment-in-full for an import. Exporting dollars does not represent payment-in-full until such time as those same dollars are spent/redeemed for goods.]

"I also regret that...our trade laws and negotiating practices are essentially adversarial. They presume that a trade concession extracted from us by our trading partners is to their advantage at our expense, and must be countered.
Few economists see the world that way. And I am rash enough to suggest that we economists are correct, at least in this regard: trade is not a zero sum game."

[Here is where the Chairman commits a flaw of omission. If speaking to our Round Table, there is no doubt it would have been the focus, rather than the omission, of his speech. With the comment that trade is not a zero sum game, the Chairman implies that a gain to one party does not entail a loss to the counterparty. They both benefit, as they each trade for what they lack. However, as I touched on earlier, this does not hold as firmly when one party settles its balance of trade in fiat dollars. One country gets real goods today in exchange only for paper units that have an immediate and pervasive trend toward devaluation. When eventually redeemed, it is nearly certain that they buy fewer goods than they would have at the time of the original trade. Such is the benefit enjoyed by the U.S. and any other nation that finds itself in the enviable position that its notes are accepted by their net-exporting partners in settlement of trade, to the offsetting detriment of these net exporting trade partners. Hence, a zero sum game is only maintained if, for example, oil is traded for grain or for gold. If traded for paper, the time-value losses while holding the currency upsets the zero sum. To be sure, the Chairman did not lightly sweep this under the mat. He favors a gold standard for the same reasons he favors open trade.]

"If trade barriers are lowered by both parties, each clearly benefits. But if one lowers barriers and the other does not, the country that lowered barriers unilaterally would still be better off having done so."

"For these reasons, I am concerned about the recent evident weakening of support for free trade in this country. Should we endeavor to freeze competitive progress in place, we will almost certainly slow economic growth overall..."

[That which we have seen offered by ANOTHER and FOA...to see it come to pass will certainly involve dramatic changes in the seating arrangement at the world table. Old beggars may become choosers, while the life of ease may find it becomes necessary to work once again. Only if trade is kept open may we have hope for the least troublesome transition. While they do say, "All is fair in love and war", I say instead, "All is fair in open markets!"]

got freedom?
got gold?

The Invisible Hand

(04/20/1999; 02:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4913)

Euro - What's the fun?

http://www.usagold.com
I suppose this Forum agrees with me that Nixon was wrong in 1971 to "abolish" what remained of the link between the US dollar and gold. The reasoning is that paper has no value except governmental fiat. But at least, the US dollar still exists in paper.

Here comes the euro. People on the westcoast of the Northern Atlantic (that's the east- and westcoast of North-America) seem very enthusiastic about it being backed by gold. Over here, in euroland, this gold backing is something unknown, but that's not my point. My point is that it does not even exist in paper, but only electronically.

It's one thing not to exist in paper (I don't know what M1, M2 and M3 (and M4?) are, but it seems to me that the non-existence in paper allows unlimited money creation). It's quite another thing when electronic money is endangered by Y2k. Y2k endangers the essence of the euro.

Why are you so enthusiastic about the euro?

The IVH

Oregon Geezer

(04/20/1999; 03:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 4914)

Blackmarket gasoline sales

From the AP wire this morning
In Florida gangs, using stolen credit cards and vans and trucks rigged with 600 to 1,000 gallon tanks, are buying gasoline and selling it at discounts in neighborhoods. Some of the vehicles are so poorly rigged that they pose an immediate danger. The crooks pay the fines --- from $1,000 to $3,000 and are back in business in no time. A sign of things to come?

SteveH

(04/20/1999; 04:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 4915)

June gold now...

$286.30.

How 'bout this:

For Immediate Attention April 19, 1999

REFORM OF EXCHANGE STABILIZATION FUND READIED
-- Openness and Accountability Would Be Mandated --
WASHINGTON, D.C. � Legislation reforming the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), the ESF Transparency and Accountability Act, is being readied for introduction, Vice Chairman Jim Saxton of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) announced today. The ESF was established in 1934 at a time when the dollar was pegged to gold, but has survived into the current era of flexible exchange rates despite its lack of clear objectives and its secretive operations.

"This legislation will end the legacy of secrecy and obscurity at the ESF," Saxton said. "We need this kind of secrecy in our nuclear weapons programs, not in our international economic policy. The ESF is an important part of U.S. international economic policy, but most Americans have never heard of it. The American people have the right to know how billions of their tax dollars are being used.

"Excessive secrecy is part of an even larger problem: the lack of accountability to Congress or the American people. Although it is part of the U.S. government, the ESF and its operations are not subject to Congressional appropriations or approval. The executive branch has virtually exclusive control of the ESF, its policies and its operations. My legislation would change this unhealthy lack of balance in economic policy.

"The new ESF reform legislation will mandate transparency by requiring the public release of monthly statements from the ESF disclosing its finances, operations, policies, and any related monthly changes. Exceptions will be provided for information that is market-sensitive or related to national security.

"The ESF reform also would require Congressional approval for any use of the ESF in excess of $1 billion, except in certain cases when the President provides a public written certification that an imminent and serious danger to international financial markets exists. This would help restore needed balance in international economic policy and facilitate effective Congressional oversight. The legislation would also limit the authority to monetize the special drawing rights (SDRs) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in the ESF.

"The ESF is a key element of the U.S. government's financial relationship with the IMF. A continued push for IMF transparency will not be as effective without much more openness at the ESF. For example, in recent weeks, part of the IMF-designed Brazil rescue package was triggered involving the ESF, but there has been virtually no public disclosure of this fact.

"The ESF is involved in the Brazilian bailout through a complicated and obscure arrangement with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an institution that is at least as secretive as the IMF. This type of arrangement creates the potential for important policy decisions involving the U.S. government to be hidden from the view of Congress and the public, and this is simply not acceptable," Saxton concluded.

SteveH

(04/20/1999; 04:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4916)

June gold asking $286.70...

http://www.gmsresearch.com/$flo499.htmI invite you to comment on this chart.

Christine

(04/20/1999; 06:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 4917)

Euro, international gold standard, electronic currency

IMHO, goldbugs are understandably enthusiastic about the gold standard. Perhaps this is some of the enthusiasm about the euro--it is more gold-linked than $US dollar. However, gold is ANATHEMA to central bankers and those in power. IMHO we are likely to get an electronic gold backed currency, but I ask you at what price. We the common people are not going to get anything for nothing. It is my strong suspicion that when we get this new currency it will be paid for by giving up a big chunck of our freedom. I am not speaking against a gold standard. Just that we be very wary about what is going on.

SteveH

(04/20/1999; 07:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 4918)

June gold hit 287 now ...

$286.6

CoBra(too)

(04/20/1999; 07:45:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4919)

Paper barrels & Casino Capitalism

The referneces to paper barrels by esteemed ladies and knights of this round table are beginning to lift the fog of the main shortcomings in todays strive for globalisation, liberalisation and abandonment of regulations in world economies.
As FOA's analogy of supply-demand, where the balance or rather imbalance of the underlying product or commodity is is of little consequence, since the price has been fixed beforehand by paper (derivative)markets, states in (virtual)reality, that the foundations of economic globalisation are built on paper. In todays case the increasingly inflated paper of a free wheeling (floating) international monetary system, based on the hegemony of fiat $-system, which is benefitting only few (8% of global population) and lead to todays casino capitalism.
This type of globalised capitalism, where huge funds are sloshing around in search of the most profitable bet on world financilal markets, or better casinos, is now totally uncoupled from economic reality. Capital seems reduced to chits or jetons on the roulette table and increasingly seem to bypass its original function as the medium to finance long term productivity in order to benefit the economical, social and ecological enhancement of all.
The experiment of globalisation in itself is deemed positve, though built on paper foundations. The transition has started (FAO)and may be the return to stable and acceptable parameters for real value.

Regards to all CoBra(too)

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 08:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 4920)

Record U.S. Feb trade gap seen squeezing Q1 GDP

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990420/we.htmlFebruary's U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $19.44 billion as imports dwarfed exports

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 08:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4921)

Canada's Thiessen sees U.S. economy pushing limits

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990420/yr.htmlInvestors are wearing rose-colored glasses

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 09:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 4922)

Russia Defaults on a $1.3B Debt

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990420/russia_def_1.html$150 billion in foreign debts with $17.5 due this year. Russia says at most it can only pay half that.

USAGOLD

(04/20/1999; 09:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4923)

Today's Gold Market Report: Bewildered Markets Looking for Direction

MARKET UPDATE (4/20/99): Gold retreated marginally this morning in markets that
seemed by and large bewildered and looking for direction. The dollar is mixed. Stocks are
struggling after NASDAQ's drubbing yesterday in which some high flying internet stocks
corrected by as much as 25% in one session. The bond market was mixed as well. The
European gold market traded up today and there was strong buying in Asia overnight
amidst concerns of potential widening of the conflict in the Balkans.

Swiss National Bank board member Bruno Gehrig told Reuters yesterday that "The earliest
possible moment at which the SNB can sell the first kilogram of gold will be in one year's
time." He also pointed out to the chagrin of Swiss leftists that the constitutional changes
brought about in last Sunday's vote make it possible for SNB to sell gold but did not allow
for the proceeds to be transferred outside the bank. Gehrig's remarks add weight to the
growing sentiment in the gold market that Swiss sales will be handled in such a way that the
effect on the price will be minimal.

The Gold Anti-Trust Committee announced yesterday that it has retained the Philadelphia
law firm of Berger & Montague to look into a possible anti-trust action against a cartel of
Wall Street investment houses and bullion banks that the organization claims have colluded
to control the price of gold. Berger and Montague are best known for its involvement in the
recent tobacco case that ended with a massive settlement being awarded various state
governments.

In Brief (4/20/99).........We have followed the fortunes of Long Term Capital
Management with great interest over the past several months. Now, this very telling
development reaches our desk: According to a Bridge News Report published today "Jon
Corzine, co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, is exploring ways of launching a buyout of
Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund which almost failed last year, the
Financial Times reported today. The report said Corzine, along with Jon Meriwether and
other original LTCM partners, has been approaching potential backers about raising funds
to buy out the consortium of banks around the world that stepped in last year to bail out the
highly-geared fund.".........If I recall correctly, this is not the first attempt to find capital
for the beleaguered fund. Other attempts have ended in failure. One wonders why Goldman
Sachs doesn't supply the capital itself.........................ECB president,Wim
Duisenberg's attitude toward the crumbling euro might be viewed by some as odd, but there
is method to this madness. As Mr. Duiseberg languidly strolls through the park, whistling
softly and taking in the spring-time air, the euro continues its trek toward parity with the
dollar.. The ECB's ho-hum attitude towards the euro can be explained by the age-old
strategy of weakening your currency to encourage exports........... And "Casual Wim"
seems blissfully content with that strategy for the moment....................... Speaking of
the ECB, it reports this morning no change in its gold holdings at 105.323
euros..............An announcement which could have serious repercussions as the day and
week progress, Russia said today it will be unable to pay off $1.2 billion in Ministry of
Finance loans. This is the latest in a series of defaults of all kinds over the past few
months................ Russian Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told UPI
that,"Unfortunately, as hard as we tried to accumulate money and stabilize the situation, we
can't do this."................... Well, thanks for trying Mikhail. We know how hard it can
be whenever IMF money arrives and it just zips its way to Switzerland in the blink of an
eye..........When were we going to send the next injection of IMF loan money into the
Russian black hole (financed by the U.S. taxpayer). They don't call that country the Bear
for nothing..................Speaking of whistling through the park (make that graveyard),
the U.S. trade deficit rose 15.6% in February to a record $19.4 billion. Hey, don't worry.
Just buy more stock. Everything's going to be just fine. ...................Brazil's back in the
news. It's stock market was down 3% today as scandal its central bank/ foreign exchange
markets gripped markets......................That's it for today. MK

The Stranger

(04/20/1999; 09:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 4924)

The Invisible Hand

Dear IVH-
Trust me, not all of us are "enthusiastic about the Euro". A better question might be, "when will Europeans finally abandon their collectivist mentality?" (Just today, Euro Disneyland conceded a new work week reduction from 39 hours to 35 with no corresponding cut in pay.)

All European countries are now in the hands of popularly elected socialist governments. Instead of junking the absurd morass of anti-employment work rules, they seek mostly to grow their economies with monetary easing. Now, there is a recipe for inflation if there ever was one.

The Euro, a replacement for the dollar on world oil markets? Hardly. I wouldn't even take SURVIVAL of the Euro for granted.

One can at least attempt to understand these things, or one can simply create more conspiracy theories.

Gandalf the White

(04/20/1999; 10:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 4925)

Steve's $CHART

Thanks Steve, You have shown the net worth of the average stockholder in the US equity market. As Kaplan has said, "The bear market started in Aug 1998 !" IF however you take and turn the chart upside down --- you see the income of the Floor Traders and Brokers that brought this "get very rich at the expense of the Sheeple" PR and media farse.
--- The Stranger is correct to as we were both taking pictures of the same thing and his yesterday's DOW headline is oh so true, -- it was the biggest 375 point ripoff seen in a long time. The only difference was that my camera was pointed at the evil ones, the Floor Traders and Brokers. Bet they will be selling their seats on the market soon too.
--- Thanks beesting for answering Aragorn's question -- and thanks Aragorn for explaining what AG is really trying to say ! Hey Farfel, why do you not get AG to try and speak so that ANYONE can figure out what HE is thinking ! He even is an English speaking American, but educated in communications on MARS, is my guess. --- Well all, I shall now sit back and await THE SHOW to begin. When is curtain-time, FOA ?
<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(04/20/1999; 10:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 4926)

Cigarettes in Wonderland

http://www.usagold.com
Today's MARKET UPDATE reports partly as follows:
The Gold Anti-Trust Committee announced yesterday that it has retained the Philadelphia law firm of Berger & Montague to look into a possible anti-trust action against a cartel of Wall Street investment houses and bullion banks that the organization claims have colluded to control the price of gold. Berger and Montague are best known for its involvement in the recent tobacco case that ended with a massive settlement being awarded various state governments.

Here are some random thoughts.

Alan Greenspan has characterised the antitrust laws as follows:
The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat". It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict - after the fact.
(GREENSPAN, A., "Antitrust", in: RAND, A., (ed.), "Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal", New York, New American Library - Signet, 1967, p.63 - based on a paper given at the Antitrust Seminar of the National Association of Business Economists, Cleveland, September 25, 1961, published by the Nathaniel Branden Institute, New York, 1962.)

Who's going to be awarded the damages for the fixing of the gold price?

As far as I remember from law school, price-fixing agreements involve fixing the price at a higher level than the market level. How does this fit into that?

The Sherman Act (the US antitrust act) became law in 1890. Is it really a coincidence that the Fed was instituted only 20 years later?

The IVH

Aragorn III

(04/20/1999; 10:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4927)

Stranger, let us think this through, together.

The U.S. dollar...it is a capitalist's currency to be sure, (or maybe not?...it is a fiat creation, after all) but is IT a "capitalist" currency? It would seem to me, as viewed by those who earn and spend, it is a unit of account.

The new euro...it is the socialist's currency to be sure, (and we see it has the same appearace as the fiat dollar), but is IT a "socialist" currency? It would seem to me, as viewed by those who earn and spend, it is a unit of account.

Is money defined by the skin of those who keep the books, or perhaps, is it defined by its function?

got markets?

FOA

(04/20/1999; 10:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 4928)

Modern Gold Standard!

Christine (4/20/99; 6:58:12MDT - Msg ID:4917)

Christine, hello again,
I don't think we will ever return to any form of the old gold standard, as it was constructed previously. Our financial world has grown far to complicated. Trade and commerce require a fast moving, self balancing system to retain the efficient use of labor and materials. Present digital currencies work very well in this new environment, except that they have evolved from and are based upon a dollar reserve standard. That reserve standard carries with it all of the past baggage of the old fixed rate exchange system (debts denominated in dollars world wide?). Only a general washout, with all that implies, will retrofit our present currency money system to match the class
act that free world trade is evolving into. Currently, the money war exists because the US/IMF wants everyone (trading partners) to lower trade margins (profits) to reflect the new economics of high speed free trade, while still maintaining payments on the old international dollar debts built up during protected trade. This has the effect of imploding native currencies and economic structures of countries trying to play the game in dollars but maintaining a local currency. We cannot have it both ways and something must give. Because all IMF/dollars are created with debt, all dollar denominated debt assets, worldwide, must be kept whole to maintain it's status as the world reserve currency. Therefore, retaining the dollar standard requires constant unbacked government to government dollar based loans so countries may make good on foreign debts. The IMF /
Federal reserve doesn't push of this just to maintain our trading partners, it's done to support the dollar reserve system.
Christine, any movement or perception that the world trading environment is moving away from dollar based trade settlement will begin a nuclear chain reaction of abandonment and repudiation of old dollar treasury debt that is held as a currency reserve! This is where this end
time political game becomes so intriguing. Many financial analysis have pegged the current international commodity deflation with the wrong identity. Falling prices in dollar terms are a direct result of a slow trend of abandonment of dollar reserve debt. Prices fall because the weight of
maintaining that reserve debt and it's part in the cost structure, is slipping away. If it was being serviced from profits, commodity production would be shutting down and product prices rising. The US/IMF rushes to lend money and the debt is being paid from the proceeds of these new
loans, not working capitol. Through this process the dollar is crashing, behind the seans, as we speak!
This is why the introduction (not it's current exchange rate) of the Euro was so important. It holds the position of a "backup" digital currency and will keep the world economic system on track when the dollar fails. Back to your original point; neither gold or the old gold standard could work as or with our present digital trading universe. What has and is evolving is a new gold currency that trades worldwide. It is manipulated just like all currencies. What we are
experiencing with gold is the building of "open gold currency trade" not "unmanipulated free gold trade" and it has taken twenty years to create. This open trade will be vital in supporting (read that backing) the massive capitol extensions the Euro will be required to service. When the dollar is replaced by the Euro, gold will be open traded (manipulated) into many thousands of Euros per ounce. That pricing will create the largest major currency reserve for the Euro System Central Banks. They will need it as their old dollar reserves will be destroyed. The present lawsuits against gold manipulation will truly fade away and be replaced with lawsuits against the huge taxes placed
on gold reserves worldwide. They will tax away 90% of these new profits just as they did the American oil companies.
Also:
At one point, a while back when the Euro looked like it would not be born, the possibility of gold being used as a partial payment (along with the dollar) in settlement of trade was very real. In this day and age, had the oil producers selected that option, world trade as we know it would have moved back 50 years as the currency system would never have kept up! World economic trade would have continued but the efficiencies of free trade using digital currencies would have been lost. Not to mention gold would have skyrocketed! Today, the low price of gold has enticed
many dollar holders to maintain their dollar reserve while buying gold to offset a potential dollars reserve status change. It is true that the cost of maintaining the dollar was very high as your paper barrel oil story has shown. However, gold was never purchased with current cash flow because (as so many people pointed out) they didn't have any. Oil reserves are easily used to purchase future delivery through the complicated world of "open manipulated gold trading". No doubt, much of that paper gold will be converted into a Euro package at the major expense and possible bankruptcy of modern gold traders.

Also:
CoBra(too)ID:4919).
Very good point!

Thanks for reading, FOA

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 10:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 4929)

Thai Banks Won't Show Problems

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990420/thailand_b_1.htmlPay now or pay later. Either way, they must pay the piper.

Gandalf the White

(04/20/1999; 10:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 4930)

Thank you Goldfly

Precurser acts, prior to the start of "THE SHOW"
From the artist Goldfly --

Location --- THE USAGOLD FORUM "RoundTable"
Time --- early
Knights and Ladies present --- Few, but like I said -- tis early ! oh yes, Lord MK is there, and some old traveler garbed in white, is asleep in his chair at the far side of the table. Others seen are Aragorn III, Aristotle, and The Stranger, that are discussing the fine points of FOA's latest post.

----
All of a sudden -- the trumpets start blaring while the curtains at the end of the great hall open -- and --

The US Dollar comes out center stage, doing some lame tricks while Lord MK sits on his golden throne and yawns.

The US Dollar tells some dumb jokes that offends some of the Knights in attendance, who bristle and place their hands on their swords.

Sensing some action the King MK perks up and leans forward in his seat.

The US Dollar cowers stage right as several Knights begin to approach. Just as they are about to lay hands on him--

A fanfare!!!! All in the room turn toward stage left -- and there comes the EURO dressed in GOLDEN tights, flexing his muscles, dancing atop a barrel of oil, rolling it forward with his feet. The EURO stops and seems about to fall forward. The Knights gasp ! The EURO then rolls backwards and seems about to fall again. Another gasp comes from the assembled. The EURO continues this for a bit and it becomes apparent he is toying with the crowd and is well able to handle himself.

The EURO then hops off the barrel, whistles and twice claps his hands toward the stage entry whence he came and out roll two more barrels which he stops blythely with one foot.. Then to the cheers of the crowd of Goldhearts, Whith one hand on each barrel he stands them on end so that they stand at each end of the first. ---

Meanwhile at the other end of the stage, the US Dollar slips and slides on a few drops of the black gold while ---

More.......coming as soon as Goldfly finishes his other mandated challanges.

<;-)

Gandalf the White

(04/20/1999; 11:00:06 MDT - Msg ID: 4931)

WOW

FOA and Goldfly --- Are you two related ?
<;-)

The Stranger

(04/20/1999; 11:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 4932)

AragornIII

Aragorn- Thank you for noticing my remarks. In response to your query, I would say that currencies, like all things, are defined by the perception of those who regard them. As for the Euro, its relative price performance is the only meaningful gauge we have of just how bad that perception is at the moment. But, as implied in my previous post, partial gold backing alone will not save the Euro. I believe Economic policy does matter. I would be interested in hearing opinions to the contrary.

beesting

(04/20/1999; 11:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 4933)

To The Invisible Hand

Thank you for your profound(at least to me)message #4913.
From someone who lives on the west coast of the North Atlantic,could you,or would you answer a few questions concerning the EURO?
Since the EURO is currently an electronic medium of exchange only,how does this effect the workers? Do they get a paycheck in local currency? Do they get paid in EURO's and convert to local currency when they buy local goods? Are credit card purchases in local currency converted to EURO's then back to local currencies? Is the public involved in EURO transactions at all?

I would like to expand on your excellent simple statement"Y2K endangers the essence of the EURO."

This statement explains why at present the world is hesitant to jump into the EURO with their own mediums of exchange. Think about this, if all your paper assets are stored in computer memory circuits and the circuits go haywire(crazy) for,1 day,1 week, 1 month or longer wouldn't you think twice about putting your assets into electronic currency,especially if it's a new and untested system?

In my humble opinion it may benifit the EURO in the long run to lose purchasing power now((To lower the cost of goods to be exported,remember,Japanese fiat money was 360 yen to the dollar when Japanese goods were flooding world markets,in 20 years Japan went from rags to riches.))

Someday,hopefully soon,the world will enjoy GOLD as an equable medium of exchange for the big players as well as the smaller players...........beesting

CoBra(too)

(04/20/1999; 11:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4934)

Capitalist curencies/politics? Aragorn III and Stranger

What's the difference -capitalist or capitalist socialist - still democratic, still fiat -still politics -the same difference you experience between the symbol of the elephant and the donkey.
Europe has ousted their Thatchers, Kohls and (Chiracs - now doubtful) after the US elected WJC and ousting Reagan and Bush. I'm not convinced of any fundamental differences in the concept.
The main problem of the concept seemingly is the hegemony of the US $ in the context of being the ultimate and only world currency reserve. The Euro currency is not the ultimate answer (only a defense?), but I doubt that those countries relying at a dollar dominance will want to repeat the experience of getting sacked by it. SE Asia will emerge with its own currency block, aided by an Anzec $, defying derivative casino US$ demonination domination. It has happened before in this century.
Let's find back to reality (we watch gold together?) - in real values and valuations.

.
.

Gandalf the White

(04/20/1999; 11:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 4935)

The SHOW must go on !

the Show -- Continues
[read though the Crystal Ball of the Wiz -- <;-) ]
===
EURO then squats down, wraps an arm around the two barrels and heaves them to his shoulders. EURO then reaches with his foot under the barrel on its side and somehow incredibly manages to pick it up with his foot!! From this position standing on one leg, EURO brings his hands under the barrels on his shoulders and presses them up until his arms are fully extended. EURO nods his head to the polite and enthusiastic applause of the assembled
Knights and Ladies.

EURO kicks upward the barrel on his foot and it lands on end. EURO with one hand places a second barrel atop of that, and the third he tosses up with both hands and it lands straight-up atop them both. EURO then leans against the barrels with one hand while blowing on his fingernails of the other hand and polishing them on his GOLDEN tights. EURO looks over to the dollar and flashes a smile that is every bit of innocence and utter contempt at the same time.

The US Dollar is obviously flustered but undaunted. He whistles over to the entryway and a single barrel rolls out. The US Dollar stops it with a bit of effort. With the strength of both arms he stands it on end. The US Dollar then wraps both arms around it and proceeds to lift.
As he strains, his visage changes. He goes from the appearance of George Washington to Abe Lincoln, to Hamilton, then to Jackson. As he begins to appear as U.S. Grant the barrel starts to lift. Finally, in the form of
Ben Franklin, sweat streaming from his face, he is able to heave the barrel to his shoulder. He holds it there with one arm as he waves to the rather subdued group with the other. It is a pitiful sight. He asks, "Where is Wilson when one needs him ?"

The US Dollar glances over toward the EURO. EURO casually reaches into his pocket and takes out a small coin. He flicks it with his thumb toward the US Dollar who attempts to catch it with his free hand but is unable to handle it. He is knocked backward as though he were hit by a cannon ball. He winds up pressed against the wall under the barrel of oil. Orderlies scurry out with a stretcher and haul the groaning contestant away....... poor US Dollar.....

Lord MK walks over and picks up the dropped coin --- "Look at this !" Lord MK says to the assembled Knights and Ladies, as he holds forth a beautiful 0.9999 pure gold 100 EURO piece.

GF

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 12:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 4936)

FX IN EUROPE-Conflicting pressures tie dollar down

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990420/bb8.htmlSummary of the dollar's tea leaves.

The Stranger

(04/20/1999; 13:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 4937)

Welcome to the Big Casino

FOA, CoBra(too), and others:

For how many countries is the U.S.A export market number one? Furthermore, how much international debt originates from American Banks? In so many cases, we are not just your ultimate customer, but we are your ultimate creditor as well. Is it any wonder that, for virtually all countries, the relationship between the domestic currency and the dollar is a matter of economic life and death.

The real reason Southeast Asia, along with practically everybody else, for that matter, would like to find a better way, is precisely what CoBra says it is. It IS a casino out there. I don't doubt that the imposition of the dollar standard upon the world is the outcome of natural market forces, but the horribly destructive influence of highly leveraged currency speculation is not.

First we beguile you with our easy lending arrangements, so that you can buy our technology and equipment to overbuild your industry. Then our hedge funds destroy your dollar reserves by using leverage to force you into a hopeless defense of your currency. Then we bring the IMF in to dictate your economic policy.

I am afraid that I do not share FOA's well-considered vision of some financial cataclysm as a denouement. I do, however, believe that impoverishing our trading partners leads inevitably to the impoverishment of ourselves in one way or another. This time around we have chosen debasement of the dollar. A better tool in the future would be the adoption of at least some currency trading rules which would take the greater needs of humanity into account.

CoBra- If Al Gore is made president, and if he gets a democratic Congress, I will buy your comparison between socialism there and socialism here. As things stand now, however, I still see a difference.

Sorry for the length.

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 14:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4938)

FWN Closing NY Metals

New York-April 20-FWN--
Silver started out firmer but pulled back to finish
with a modest loss on profit taking. Platinum also closed
lower, remaining in a range since the lack of Russian
supplies does not affect it as greatly as palladium. Gold
finished with a tiny loss.
"It was a pretty quiet session overall," said Dave
Rinehimer, head of futures research with Salomon Smith
Barney.
June gold dipped 40 cents to $285.90.
"We weren't very active today," said Rinehimer. "This
market has pretty much factored in increased potential for
IMF (International Monetary Fund) gold sales and
expectations the Swiss will move forward to sell gold next
year. But there still appears to be a relatively large non-
commercial net short position in the market, and if we
continue to move sideways to higher, we will probably
activate some stops to the upside."
Support for June gold was pegged at $283.50, with
resistance seen at $287.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
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Aragorn III

(04/20/1999; 15:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 4939)

More discussion with The Stranger

Stranger, you are always the good thinker. From your (4/20/99; 11:06:41MDT - Msg ID:4932):

"As for the Euro, its relative price performance is the only meaningful gauge we have of just how bad that perception is at the moment."

With this trained perspective we see only that the euro does not buy overseas dollars very well, or maybe we see closer to the mark that the dollars are selling euros with vigor. But there is yet more to be examined. Is the euro losing the land battle for eggs, for rent, for labor?

"partial gold backing alone will not save the Euro"

Truly, and to be quite frank, nothing "backs" a currency beyond itself or its contract. Foreign exchange reserves are not held for providing currency redemption. They are for purchasing a desired (temporary) exchange rate on the forex. Call it manipulation, call it bribery, call it savvy business, or what you like, but it is not "backing" any more than an advertisement "backs" its product. If the candy is bitter, the product fails and the ad campaign is suspended.

"I believe Economic policy does matter. I would be interested in hearing opinions to the contrary."

Economic policy...by this do we mean the bank's operational protocol--its lending policy? With the ECB we have a bookkeeper that tallies the ledgers independent of political orientation. Under the Maastricht Treaty, the individual national governments have moved towards balanced budgets and cannot create "debt upon debt, without limit" in an effort to beget new money. Government IOUs will not be purchased by the ECB, and all borrowers are expected to repay. Do you see this as a distinct departure from the U.S. cozy arrangement between Fed and Treasury? Too many years at unsustainable lending rates have destroyed the ability to service this U. S. debt, both foreign AND domestic. The thoughts you offer in your latest post (4/20/99; 13:36:04MDT - Msg ID:4937) complete the picture:

"For how many countries is the U.S.A export market number one? Furthermore, how much international debt originates from American Banks? In so many cases, we are not just your ultimate customer, but we are your ultimate creditor as well. Is it any wonder that, for virtually all countries, the relationship between the domestic currency and the dollar is a matter of economic life and death."

As ultimate customer and lender, do you see these countries� exposure to commodities markets that can take prices ever lower, holding them at the mercy of past creditors for continued production at any price? I offer this variation of your thought for consideration. "Is it any wonder that, for virtually all countries, the relationship between the exported commodities prices and the dollar's lending rate is a matter of economic life and death." As paper markets for commodities have shown the ability to act to negate price impact from inflation of the dollar supply, the U.S. is able to have its cake and eat it too. Meanwhile, these countries play a losing game of debt service, and no more.

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 15:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4940)

Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: June gold dn 40c on profit-taking

By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Washington--Apr 20--COMEX Jun gold settled down 40c at $285.9 per ounce,
pressured by a stronger dollar and on profit-taking after run-ups late last
week and early this week totaling about $3.

Traders and analysts said profit-taking after recent run-ups and the
strength of the dollar weighed on both the gold and silver markets today but
most said they expect upside potential in the near-term. "Both markets are
relatively firm underneath," said a trader. Most said they see Jun gold reaching
$288 and May silver hitting $5.20.

"The markets have been up for 3-4 days now," said a trader. "I think they're
lightening up a bit now, but should come back up again."

Traders said the gold market has remained relatively unfazed by recent news
of IMF gold sales. "We continue to see stories about IMF sales, but the market
is putting them behind it," said a trader. "The amounts are so small and are
built into the market already." He said he does not see the potential IMF sales
as a negative for the market. "Once the sales do occur and we get them behind us
and don't have to worry about them, gold should find decent support," he said.

In the news today, Canadian Finance Minister Paul Martin said today that
most countries support the idea of IMF gold sales to finance debt-relief
operations. But Martin said that it remains to be seen whether there will be
movement on the issue at the looming IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington.

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TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 15:54:29 MDT - Msg ID: 4941)

Forecast of the IMF in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_324000/324268.stmThe world...in a teacup.

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 16:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 4942)

Investigation of Gold Price Manipulation Launched by GATA; Berger & Montague Retained as Counsel

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/990420/nh_gata_in_1.htmlBattling giants: David picks up a stone...

TownCrier

(04/20/1999; 16:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 4943)

Canada's Thiessen says supports IMF gold sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990420/5t.htmlAn old story, but short and sweet.

SteveH

(04/20/1999; 17:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 4944)

June gold now...

$286.00.

This just in from exbfield in response to "paper barrels."

SteveH,I've been following this thread for some time, having more than a passing interest in XXX [was a stock symbol] -- appreciate your comments. I noted the exerpt to which you referred, concerning oil prices. The numbers in that one-paragraph piece look strange to me. The world supply of oil amounted to 75 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, of which OPEC provided about 40%. World demand was also about 75 mmb/d. However, excess inventories currently amount to between 150 - 300 million barrels. Its tough to get good figures, but on any score, inventories are over-flowing. During the second quarter of any year, demand generally falls by about 2 mmb/d. So, if OPEC and other major exporters didn't agree to that 2.1 mmb/d production cut, inventories would have accumulated a further 2 mmb/d on top of their already excessive level -- disaster for prices and most OPEC national budgets. As it is,the 2.1 mmb/d production cut willl just keep inventories flat during the next quarter. The current run-up in oil prices is anticipation of the beginnings of a stock draw in the third quarter and then a very substantial stock draw in the fourth. Current prices appear to be discounting full compliance with the production cuts. Any disappointment -- we'll probably begin to get some inkling during the next three weeks -- will likely lead to a sharp pull-back. The import of this is that, while it is likely that the average price of crude will rise this year, there is very little likelihood of sharp upward pressure due to shortages over the summer and autumn. The point about falling non-OPEC production is well taken, but it's implications for price are longer term. North Sea production will likely peak by around the middle of the next decade,reinforcing already weakening production in North America. However, in the near term, as prices rise up to what an "equilibrium" level -- that I peg at about US$18/b -- there will likely be some slippage in the production curtailment. On another note,it is not likely that bond markets or, if necessary, monetary authorities would allow a sustained rise in oil prices to lead to a meaningful increase in general inflation. We might have to rely more on an (eventually) falling US dollar for a meaningful rise in gold prices...."

SteveH

(04/20/1999; 17:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 4945)

June gold now...

The Stranger

(04/20/1999; 17:28:13 MDT - Msg ID: 4946)

More with Aragorn

First, Aragorn, you flatter me with your attention. I thank you for that, as I believe you are a very bright man. I noticed once before, for example, that you have a good grasp of the foundations of Euroland, something which I (perhaps obviously) lack. What a blessing it is to come here and find such intelligence just waiting, it would seem, for my engagement.

Having read and reread your post several times, I suspect that much of your opinion is in concurrence with my own. If so, I am pleased. You do raise a valid issue, however, with my remark about the impact upon the Euro of economic performance.

I suppose scarcity alone could maintain perception of value for the Euro. What rules apply to the ECB with respect to money creation parameters? Do you know? I do not. But, if ANY money creation is allowed, and I am sure it is, then it had better equate to the rate of economic growth plus productivity improvement, or the Euro will ultimately trend lower against currencies that do.

One of the limitations of this form of debate, of course, is the way it shields identities. For all I know, you may be Wm. Duisenberg, himself. But then, for all you know, I may chair the Economics Department at Wharton. Anyway, three cheers for the Round Table and for that which it makes possible.

CoBra(too)

(04/20/1999; 17:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 4947)

Euro et al...

I have to admit that I am at a loss to explain the severe beating of the euro sibling in terms of US $. I don't want to speculate as to the immediate causes, considering the euroland purchasing power stability, trade surplus (while large percentage admittedly is internal trade) and last but not least comparatively low(external)debt level.
Notwithstanding structural economic problems, which haven't been sufficiently corrected (in response to Stranger& Aragorn)while there was a chance in mostly conservative led Europe for half a generation, I still feel we may start to observe the dawning of a cultural change in global $-denominated world trade.
Looking back at 27 years of floating currencies, with the US $ emerging as the ultimate world currency, after depreciating about 50% vs. all other leading currencies(units of account if you wish)right after the official demise of the gold standard, I would feel it may be premature to abort the sibling before he outgrows nursery. Particularily in view of the mounting debt, trade gap and resulting repatriation of foreign held $"s in the end. The last resort consumer, while presently a boon to the rest of the world, unfortunately, is the result of a financial and probably unsustainable market craze or bubble, creating a (virtual) wealth effect, which inherently will have to collapse, taking collateral as experienced in the S&L bubble to nirwana.
I'm sorry to be that negative, but I do feel the world, rapidly, has to return to some anchor in its ballooning monetary and financial craze before the systemic risks a la' LTCM take on proportions of no return.

BTW - thank you FOA, Sir, for mentioning m.h. post.
YGM-did you find a blowtorch to get rid of the white stuff- missing your input.
Regards CoBra(too)

The Stranger

(04/20/1999; 17:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 4948)

Guns and Gold

Recently, someone in here made a very macho statement about how if he had guns and gold, and you only had gold, he would wind up with the guns AND ALL THE GOLD.

I think now is an ideal time to put down my response. Whoever you are, sir, consider this: If power is what you seek, consider NOT owning guns. Perhaps then you will understand how small your attitude has made you.

For anyone else: If you must own the damn things, for God sakes, LOCK'EM UP!

beesting

(04/20/1999; 18:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 4949)