Bang-on my friend your could not have said it better!!!

Follow the money (secret buyers of gold), look through the smoke screen of CB/IMF sales and we will find the masters of this financial illusion called "Wall Street-no inflation-low interest rate-easy money paradise".

They know, like the engineer/architect of the Titanic, that the ship has hit the proverbial ICEBERG and there is no other way but to man&woman the life boats (ie gold).

You don't have to be wise to get a wise man's results. Just do as a the wise man does and it will all work out!

Keep Well All!

Essentially the question you pose is how should we value Gold given our current monetary situation...should the focus be on current money supply or national debt, or a combination, or something else entirely. Wow, a question for the ages! I won't pretend to have a solid answer for this, but maybe I can pose some additional thoughts that might help stimulate some additional discussion that might lead to a resolution that is to our satisfaction. Let me stress that this is not intended to be a comprehensive treatment of the pertinent factors, but merely a general framework from which our many industrious thinkers may expand, or spot the fallacy and provide the necessary course-correction.

To begin, let us admit that the revaluation of Gold would be done to repair the ills brought about by the global use of competing fiat currencies that have no means with which to prove their value other than by demonstration of the latest contract or transaction they were used to settle. Otherwise, without defining a purpose, anything goes. As things stand, each nation-state has a money supply in circulation or on deposit, and has a net national debt or surplus on the ledgers.

Following the demise of the international Gold-standard in 1971 (prior to which time the dollar was defined as having the value of 35 per troy ounce, and other currencies were pegged at some defined exchange rate vs. the dollar in accordance with the Bretton Woods agreement as facilitated through the IMF), we must further admit that these many currencies have experienced the spectrum of pegs through free float against each other, none immune to some form of manipulation. The form of manipulation also ran the spectrum to serve the desired objective of the moment; from 'beggar thy neighbor' devaluations for facilitating exports, to the opposite attempts at maintaining purchasing integrity through exchange rate strength. As each nation manipulated in what they felt to be their best interest, there was no one nation with a sole claim on the ownership and fate of Gold, yet as an independent currency while all the world was floating, Gold as 'priced' in other currencies experienced a de facto manipulation. And as has already been demonstrated by those of you more capable than I, the start of the 1980's and Gold at $850 brought about more direct and aggressive manipulation of Gold as a currency through pricing on the futures markets, as with key commodities such as oil. As a result, the price of Gold currently bears no correlation to other real things, and further, gives no insight into the true value (or weakness) of the dollar that 'prices' it. It will be helpful for what follows to recognize that a dollar is valued at what the latest seller determines it to be worth...a candy bar, a dozen eggs, a gallon of gas. This is similar to the manner in which common stocks, such as IBM or tulips.com, receive their valuation by the latest terms of exchange.

With that background in place, let's tackle the task at hand, namely, estimating the appropriate valuation for Gold. I suggest that this would be brought about in one of two possible ways: through open market pricing sans manipulation, or else through official proclamation--"lightning in the night," to borrow words from a greater mind than mine.

Open market pricing is the easiest to discuss, as there is nothing to discuss. Under our premise that Gold is to become the numeraire with the national currency acting as the transactional proxy in future commerce, the price of Gold would move to reflect mankind's confidence (or lack thereof) in the entities that are issuing the proxy currencies and 'keeping the books' (sorta like the early years of banking and blacksmiths.) While this method might immediately suggest a strong tie to the outstanding money supply as a pricing influence, the 'confidence factor' would surely address some level of the national debt or surplus.

Now for the tough one: an official proclamation of valuation coming as suddenly and unexpectedly as are all monetary policy decisions when brought forth for the world's attention. Rather than leaving the revaluation to the uncertainties and perfection(!) of the open market, the government would utilize this official revaluation as an opportunity to achieve specific objectives in the national interest. Clearly, to assist our estimation, we must identify the objectives that may be served in addition to any socio-political pressures that may be brought to bear.

To be sure, clearing the books of any national debt would be an objective, and therefore an opportunity not to be missed. Which debt would be chosen? The sum of all outstanding Government Bond liabilities, or only those in foreign hands, or would an adjustment be made for assets such as the total value of other nations' bonds and for outstanding loans to other countries? If this last option were chosen, and the nation's Gold were divided into the net national debt, the slate would be wiped clean of all outstanding government liabilities using all of its Gold assets in an act that would yield the lowest possible price of Gold as needed to balance the books. "So what of the outstanding money supply?" you ask? Now I already know that you're not going to like hearing this, but here goes... Technically, that which is left after the government settles its net debt would not need Gold backing because it is a self-extinguishing, temporary money supply that came into being as bank loans. As the people endeavor to pay back these same dollars they borrowed from their Main Street banks, the resulting money annihilation through ledger squaring, coupled with the need to pay the loan interest soon reveals a vanishing currency deflation of epic proportions. This could be tempered as private citizens with Gold may choose to exchange it for new issue of dollars from the government at this new valuation, which would then become part of a permanent money supply. It should be readily apparent that the Government could also choose to settle its liabilites with only a fraction of its Gold assets, resulting in a much higher price for gold than in the above example. This would give them real money reserves with which to conduct future operations until such time as they manage to balance annual spending with tax revenues. (Conceivably, they could pay off the debt with one ounce, but the price of Gold would then be $5.6 trillion / ounce which would completely wipe out the purchasing power of the dollar at home and abroad.)

In the end, even with a governmentally established revaluation, the prices charged for goods and services would be established on the open market as they are now, and would be a function of the supply of that particular nation's gold-proxy transactional currency. A little gold goes a long way, my friends!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

A date to remember--June, 1999

Christine,

You are writing in message 5510 that the June gold rumor is being discussed in Gold-Eagle.

What's the address of Gold-Eagle?

The IVH

$287.80. June gold that is.

POG is manipulated by SYSOPs of gold bullion discussion groups so that people have subject matter and a cause of discussion. Were gold to rally to our dreams posters would be too busy spending their money to discuss underdog issues of manipulation and collusion. That simple. Got discussion.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html

Steve H: believe today is a bank holiday observed in London, and accounts for lack of quotes.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/ky.htmlComing to terms with the damage done Friday.

MARKET UPDATE (5/3/99): Gold backed off slightly this morning as worldwide
markets waited for New York to set the tone for today's trading. With the hullabaloo of
International Monetary Fund and Swiss sales behind us, the gold market is now
concentrating on rising oil prices and their effect on the overall inflationary picture
worldwide. The market is also focusing on the enormous short position built into this
market -- a position that will have to be covered at some point. There is also the problem of
enormous monetary growth for the dollar and growing concern that the U.S. economy is
overheating, the large increase in gross domestic product announced Friday being the latest
indicator. These are just a few of the more immediate concerns as we kick off the week.

One of the more interesting developments over the weekend was the announcement by the
Royal Canadian Mint that it was raising premiums on its gold and silver coinage. The Royal
Canadian Mint in an attempt to deal with the stagnant gold price in terms of covering their
production costs and making a profit announced that it would start pricing its coins at spot
+$10 to market-makers, an increase of about $1.50 per one ounce coin. The United States
Eagle coinage has already experienced price rises at the wholesale level owing to the
burgeoning demand related to year 2000 investor preparations. The Canadian situation
points to production costs rising while gold itself has not responded to inflationary
pressures. Many believe the gold price is being manipulated down by various financial
firms in Europe and the United States. The premium rise is a natural market reaction to the
artificially maintained price. The U.S. Mint has dealt with the same problem by rationing
gold coins to its market-makers -- a strategy which has driven up premiums as well,
although in the case of U.S. coins, it is the market, not the mint, which has driven up
premiums.

Economists have warned that if the gold price is held down artificially in a strong demand
environment, the available supply at some point is absorbed into the market and new
demand goes unmet. Eventually the gold supply without the natural stimulus of rising price
and its corollary rising availability will experience shortages. The Canadian Mint's response
is another way of achieving the same end. If the spot price is not going to allocate supply
and demand properly then the premiums will. Premiums on the smaller one quarter and
one-tenth ounce gold coins, popular with Y2K investors, are likely to go even higher on a
percentage basis.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334298.stmInteresting squabbling.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_company_file/newsid_333000/333963.stmThank you for ringing the bell at the top???

Thank you for bringing it up. Historical precedence in over-heated, -valued, -exuberant... equity markets rang the bell in 1928. History doesn't repeat itself?, but this just might come too close for comfort.
Let's watch RR's resignation cashing in the (in trust, I trust) chips together-imminently?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/sy.htmlFor you NAPM watchers: Growth...NAPM over 50.

PRESS RELEASE--April 30

GAS OUT Protesters Should Learn from History, Economics, Independent Oil Producers Say

"If the GAS OUT protestors are truly concerned about gasoline prices at the pump, they need to focus on the ongoing plight of America's independent oil and gas producers -- small business men and women who are being put out of work at record levels," according to Gil Thurm, president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA).

For the past sixteen months, a worldwide glut of oil has caused prices to fall to historically low levels -- $10 - $12 per barrel on the national market, half that in some regions. "The price of gasoline, on an inflation- adjusted basis, was lower than it had ever been before in the entire history of gasoline," says Thurm.

Of equal importance is the fact that low international oil prices have wreaked havoc in the domestic producing industry and severely handicapped producers in their efforts to keep competitively priced oil flowing to U.S. consumers.

"We understand that motorists were delighted with extremely low gasoline prices," Thurm says. "But low oil prices have precipitated a wrenching collapse in the domestic petroleum industry that will lead to a rapid rise in imported oil and increased U.S. dependence on unstable Middle Eastern governments. Because so many domestic producers are in serious trouble, we could well see prices spiral upwards in the future after U.S. production is devastated."

Today, explains Thurm, as a result of the prolonged low oil prices, "Hundreds of producers teeter on the brink of bankruptcy. Thousands of people in the producing regions are out of work. The number of workover rigs in the field has dropped 50 percent, while the overall rig count is at a historic low. And spending on exploration and production -- the foundation of our future -- is down 40 percent."

The price uptick to about $18 per barrel -- less than a third of the historic high -- is not enough to encourage a return to drilling, Thurm says, especially when you consider that even this modest rise depends on OPEC countries' keeping their pledge to reduce production and export. "In the past," Thurm points out, "compliance with OPEC quotas has been inconsistent and unreliable."

Even if the industry begins to recover, U.S. producers will be hard pressed to increase production even to the levels seen immediately before the price collapse because, over the past months, they have had to shut in 130,000 wells. "Few of those wells will come back at the same volume they produced before the shut-in," says Thurm, explaining that "when fluid doesn't flow in a well, natural acids corrode downwell equipment and tubing. Even worse, water has a chance to migrate through the field, displacing oil and gas and changing pressurization. In the end, we're likely to have to plug and abandon about half of the shut-in wells -- 65,000 once-valuable national assets that have turned into dead losses."

The result will be "significantly increased dependence on foreign governments for the petroleum that is the lifeblood of our economy," says Thurm. "We're likely to see the result not only in a lower standard of living and people out of work but also in lives lost in another Gulf War." The last time the United States suffered from extremely low crude oil prices was in 1986. The price crisis started a precipitous decline in production and as a result, the nature of the domestic oil industry was fundamentally altered. The decline in production had only recently been arrested. Since 1986, the U.S. has become dependent on imports for more than half its crude oil.

"Gasoline today is still an incredible bargain," he notes. "Even with the uptick, we're still paying less at the pump than we pay for the bottled water we buy in the gasoline station's convenience market. But if we lose America's small independent oil and gas producers, we could be seeing much higher prices at the pump and a return of the long gasoline lines."

fox
03/05/1999 ANGLOGOLD, at a briefing on its March results, blamed the
investment community for prolonging the current gold malaise by
urging their clients to sell whenever the price rose - every
rally an opportunity. Executive director Kelvin Williams said
physical off-take of gold worldwide right now was reassuring
with signs of a recovery in both South-East Asia and the Middle
East - proposed gold sales in Switzerland and the IMF already
discounted and unlikely to affect prices. Publisher: Citizen

http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press99/pr050199.htmThis press release doesn't relate directly to Gold in any way,but prompted a telephone call from New Zealand to our house(U.S.)as it got major television coverage in New Zealand.
My question is out of 435 congressmen/women how come only 17 joined in the lawsuit? Are the others really sheep dressed in modern clothing?

I also second the motion on the floor,if I have voting rights(regarding special posts) I've already personally bookmarked about 20 posts that I thought were outstanding,although they're all outstanding. AragornIII leads my personal list with 7 outstanding contributions.

Aristotle msg.5517 I wish I had the power to vote you on the Congressional Banking committee here in the U.S. they(WE) could use your help.

Gold mine shares seem to be continuing heavy trading at this hour,feels like a 5.6 trillion ton Gold train starting out of the station with a slow climb to ??(10,000ft-dollars)ahead...........beesting

foxgentleman,
I am from belgium , watching very carefully the south African market; My language is not the english language, i will surely try to do my best. Best regards to all the publishers in this very highstanding forum ( il y en a d'autres )

"Even the well written history of paper money,with all it's chronicled destruction cannot convince modern man that Gold can and will fully demoney paper!In our present lifetime."
A written Golden nugget........beesting

I for one would like to hear your perspective on how Gold is viewed in Belgium by you and your associates.Also, don't worry about your English,mine is terrible and I was born in the U.S. I refer to my dictionary often,as I'm sure many other posters do too...........beesting

New York-May 3-FWN--William O'Neill, director of futures
research with Merrill Lynch, noted that June gold was locked in an 80-cent
range during the day session and was not able to benefit
from another surge in energy prices.
"Oil hit $19 (a barrell) for the first time since
December of 1997, so people will be keeping a watch on that
for potential inflationary implications," said O'Neill. "But
there wasn't much effect today."
Support for June gold was put at $284.50, while
resistance was pegged at $289.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/7h.htmlDay-end tea leaves.

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 3--Gold was extremely quiet, with Jun settling up 20c at
$287.60 per ounce after trading in a narrow range.
Traders said that with the stock market "soaring away" again, and with the
UK and Japanese players out for holidays, metals were largely ignored.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $287.6, dn 20c; RANGE: $288.2-287.0

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

This post is truely exceptional. It was better the second time I read it.

Your wrote: "As a result, the price of Gold currently bears no correlation to other real things, and further, gives no insight into the true value (or weakness) of the dollar that
'prices' it. It will be helpful for what follows to recognize that a dollar is valued at what the latest seller determines it to be worth...a candy bar, a dozen eggs, a gallon of gas."

I must admitt that this is such a fundamental truth that it is easy to forget. Thanks for the reminder. Your statement reminded me that the value of the dollar is so very dependent on the flight to quality. But, "quality" is on the decline!

You wrote: "...the price of Gold would move to reflect mankind's confidence (or lack thereof) in the entities that are issuing the proxy currencies..." This forum has become a meeting place where the issue of confidence has become an underlying and central theme. Such strange times when factors like y2k can strike a blow at global confidence resulting in a foriegh flight to quality in the dollar but upon arrival (from their flight) they find quality wanting!

Regarding "proclimation of valuation" to resolve all debts. Perhaps this day is really coming and with it the "Mother of All Inflations". Could this be one of the reasons why private parties retain 80,000 tons of gold? I would expect governments faced with this to outlaw private ownership and we would see the development of financial black markets and the hiding of gold.

Got a shovel?

http://www.cs.uu.nl/wais/html/na-bng/alt.prophecies.nostradamus.htmlMK et al,

The Nostradamus prophecies are fascinating but at the
end of the day they do make more sense in retrospect.

Albert Nanomius, associated with the Newsgroup alt.prophecies.nostradamus (as is often the case, this
newsgroup has more noise than signal) has compiled
FAQs which might be of interest at the above link.
From what I have seen on the internet, one would be better
served at the library or bookshop.

One of the fascinating verses, Century II, Quatrain 32,
reads "After the milk of wellbeing, the blood of the people
will flow in Yugoslavia, when war breaks out, as well as
a calamity near Ballenstedt. The [war] cry will be loud
throughout Russia. Thus, then, a scourge will be born near
and in Ravenna.

Now, despite this translation being made many years ago before the breakup of Yugoslavia and Nostradamus having
written originally in the 16th century the Yugoslavia/Russia situation is clear; however, I scratch my head over
Ballenstedt (a small place in Germany) and Ravenna.
Stocks and shares in defence related companies may benefit
in the short term from a war. However, as in WWII, a
prolonged conflict will be a financial drain on the
economy and will not be good for equities. In times like
this, a little gold insurance will be good to own.

http://dynamic.webpoint.com/news/tribune/story/0,1021,105010557,00.htmlFastest traverse of 1,000 point milestones in market history.
At these heights it could have been any one of us to discover George Mallory atop Mount Everest after 75 years.
See that interesting story here:
http://www.seattletimes.com/news/nation-world/html98/moun_19990503.html

Thank you for confirming that it was of some use. If I am only wasting space, I need to be made aware of that also.

Upon looking it over, I hope the meaning of this comment was clear, "...the slate would be wiped clean of all outstanding government liabilities using all of its Gold assets in an act that would yield the lowest possible price of Gold as needed to balance the books."

This 'lowest possible price' would easily put Gold well into the THOU$AND$.

That's all I have time for at the moment. Hopefully after a long-overdue meal I will be able to get a byte in edgewise through my Internet Service Provider that is always jammed to capacity on Monday and Tuesday nights. Wish me luck.

Fox! Glad to have you join us. It is always a treat to see our Round Table expand in size.

By the way...what's with the DOW? Man, you couldn't drag me into that wild party. The only thing possibly more fragile than a fiat dollar is Market Capitalization. Sheeeeeeesh! Goldman Sachs will have themselves a nice little feeding frenzy tomorrow. I surely join with the others in thanking them for ringing the bell to signal the top. Sure, the DOW could go higher still; but brother, it's already a loooooooong way down, and I'm getting worried about the splash radius!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Hope you're right. However reminds me of the song "quando,quando,quando???

http://38.201.154.108/articles/?a=1999/4/23/70143
If you have ever wondered if the NWO would ever stand up and make itself known then you need wonder no more. Here is the outline for a one-world ruling body. Included are the intentions for international financial reform.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990429.htm Hello Tomcat. I find Tony Blair's tone and words chilling.

Here is first paragraph from text of Greenspan's speech April 29--
"One way to address the issue of the management of foreign exchange reserves is to start with an
economic system in which no reserves are required. There are two. THE FIRST IS THE OBVIOUS CASE OF A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY. The second is a MORE USEFUL STARTING POINT: a fully functioning, fully adhered to, floating rate world."

Comments:
1. "How is the US able to withstand the changes? Is it even possible? ..... A fully functional, floating exchange rate
mechanism would seem to be a death wish for those with a nasty trade imbalance. ie, the US dollar." (Earl from Kitco)

2. IMHO, it, NWO, is be introduced piece by piece. The question is, what will happen to convince us to accept it. I suspect significant financial trauma. Trauma that was planned some years back

$287.70 and a large spread too. Crosses both upper and lowre bollinger, she does. Tells me next two hours might see a dollar rise in price. Time will tell. Spread is narrow on the bollingers and a direction is imminent.

Your post required some heavy duty thinking.....I read....reread ...and rereread...hope I got it..

The main point I "think" we differ on is...you are thinking along the line of a curriency "weakening or depreciation of some sort.....I'm thinking a long the line of a curriency "collapse".......worth nothing .....zippo!

When a country got in trouble for printing their script too fast...that is faster than the bench mark script (US$)....the IMF boyz would go in and "straighten things
out"....we could go on and on as to the results, but that is a topic for discussion for another time........the point being there was always somebody to do the "rescueing"......who could "rescue" the largest debtor in the world....and "if" there was ,who is to say they would want to rescue us..? The US was there to rescue Mexico(or should I say Goldman Sachs) with the Brady Bonds.....their script(peso) weakened,but did not collapse....but going back in history...who was there to help France in 1790's or Weimar Germany in 1922 or Bazil in the late 50's....I could go on and on but history has proven that fiat monetary systems do not work.....sure some are gradual devaluations...but with the derrivative exposures of the US banks and Y2K and our massive trade imbalance(debt,iou's markers what ever one calls it)...this is going to unwind very fast and furrious
Please don't be offended by my style of posting....writing and composing are not my stronger suits....and it is not the nature of the chicken man to not love...thank you !

I've been reading your posts since you came to this site and I have concluded that you are a very intelligent individual. However, I belive that you are a paranoid fanatic intent on fereting out anything that appears the least bit covert. A regular chicken little, a complete radical...........uh, so, anyway I think you're pretty cool! I'll buy you a beer sometime.

Believe

Are you paranoid too, or are you insulting me. Just checking. Don't want to jump to any conclusions. (-:>~

I am pleased by the attention you have given my message. I'd say the difference between us is a distance not so great that it couldn't be spanned with a handshake.

The point you recently raised is valid, the U.S. is too big to be rescued by some outside agent. And maybe 20 years into the future it would be easiest if the dollar were not still limping around in a greatly devalued form, but rather, extinguished now as you suggest by a complete collapse to "zippo!" followed by starting afresh with a sound replacement.

Here is the catch I see in that scenario. First, the social and economic turmoil would be politically unbearable to abruptly extinguish the dollar, and move on to something else. The public would much more easily adapt to a dollar that smoothly evolved into the new form and value--first by the requisite devaluation, followed by the necessary sound monetary policy and appurtenant underpinnings. And second, the U.S. (happily) need not look to outside help in a bailout if the end goal were the return to sound money. As I tried to demonstrate, the level of devaluation could be determined at will by the government to nearly any level below some workable threshold point that would facilitate paying off accumulated debt with high-priced Gold; again, the government establishing the official dollar-to-Gold ratio (i.e., price). If this debt were settled with only one ounce of Gold, then your scenario plays out, because the term 'dollar' becomes meaningless at $5 trillion per ounce. Although, we then have full use of the remaining eight thousand tonnes of Gold with which to try to shock a flat-lined, comatose national economy back to life after the economic lifeblood (money) has been destroyed through this absolute devaluation.

If, on the other hand, the government chooses to initiate a bailout program on itself that would cause the least disruption, much more of the government-held Gold would be used to settle the debt, resulting in a starting point for the 'new dollar' that would be more strongly defined in gold, say, $10,000 per ounce--rather than the example given above.

Going into the future, I don't see these currencies as the same fiat currencies we have all grown to know and despise, yet I don't see the true Gold-standard that maybe many of us would like to envision, either. On the horizon I see instead an interesting variation on the Gold-standard that I'm sure we will enjoy immensely more than anything we have experienced to-date.

Gold. Save yourself--get you some. ---Aristotle

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/bdu.htmlThe headline reads, "Higher commodity prices boost emerging economies." It goes on to explain that the recent upturn in commodity prices has helped turn around various failing national market economies. My understanding is that the euro is intended to further foster this upturn in global growth through a return to fairly valued commodities, based upon currency underlain by fairly valued Gold. ---Aristotle

$286.90. Direction determined for now. Ask is $287.40.

http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/editorial/04tue4.htmlThe title of the editorial is something like "Who needs gold when we have Greenspan?"

Date: Tue May 04 1999 05:18
mozel (@Gold Loans @On a national basis, the United States has refused to settle accounts in gold) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since 1971. Countries which accummulated from trade surplus with the United States have had to choose between leaving it in the international monetary system or converting it to gold and not being able to use it in the international monetary system. Thus, every greenback which was converted to gold drained liquidity from the international monetary system. Two years of Anglo production has been forward sold. Twelve years of the NEM Indo mine have bee "pre-sold". Gold loans looked like a way to compensate for the drain in liquidity from conversion of trade suprplus into gold. And, that is what it has done. But, when the loans are closed, where will the liquidity come from ? This is the bind on the IMF which the Euro presents. Gold is monetary in Europe. Trade surplus converted to gold is not a drain on Euro liquidity. When the $US loses its position in the basket of currencies which make up the IMF SDR, it will also lose its position as the reserve currency. Oil is the commodity that crosses borders in the greatest number of transactions. If oil countries begin to contract for settlement in Euros, non-European nations will need Euro balances. When the $US is no longer the currency held as reserve by countries in the IMF, will the US remain in it ?

Naww! Couldn't be...could it?

Mozel (02:19) at Kitco, suggests the euro countries may pull out of IMF, and that would drain IMF liquidity and cause its bankruptcy--this may be real motive for them to sell gold. He provides in-depth financial analysis at this post

Christine, I've tried to find the time to write to you before now. Sorry for the delay.

I am so glad you are at this forum with the other wonderfuly intelligent minds. As I wrote in the last USAGOLD contest, I see financial manipulation as the real problem. It scares me much more than inflation. I've lived through inflation before. It is part of a free market, right? Financial manipulation is on the other hand something sinister and confusing, evil if youwill. How can a free market ever exist with that going on? The financial market is like a big gambling ring "owned" by thugs who want what they want when they want it and have found ways to do it.

I hold gold because it is real and I owe no one. But I'm a red-blooded , American and admit that the profits these guys are making are huge and it is tempting to jump in there with them. But I always come back to the idea that this bubble could burst at any moment when the thugs decide they had pushed it for all it is worth and pull out.

At any rate I read your writing with interest. You obviously have an in depth understanding of finances, which is something I lack.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Julia

@Julia--thanks for the comments

Date: Tue May 04 1999 08:32
chris (@Mozel--Gasoline shortages and IMF, $US crisis all at once?) ID#293447:
Copyright � 1999 chris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If I understand, you are suggesting IMF may go bankrupt, or U.S. may have to leave the IMF and euroland
would stay. Either way, big trouble for the US dollar. Oil will have to be paid for in euros, which will cost dearly.
So, at same time, refineries have been moved out of U.S., plus there have recently been at least 4 refinery fires in
U.S., plus more outside of U.S. Plus, per Simmons article on oil, the oil shorting that held the price of oil down to
extreme lows the last 2 1/2 years has caused serious temporary loss of supply of oil, if not permanent. To me, US
dollar and IMF instability, and a staged gasoline crisis in the U.S.,appear to be designed to occur roughly
simultaneously.

Now, this is getting really interesting. Chicken Man and Aristotle, could you expound on what would happen, in your models, to the US indutry/business/finance sector. How fast would the currency collapse occur? What might trigger the loss of confidence? What would remain of industry/banking/finance and commerce? Are you suggesting a rapid a total collapse or a controlled one? I think you both are on to something but I can't yet think and project with the models?

Since we are speculating with various models I would like to throw one in.

Why not let a controlled inflation occur by contolling the price of gold up slowly. Yes, the short folks would die but the gold is still in someones hands. This inflation would be small enough to keep the industrial/business/finance sector intact (with many failures of course) but large enough to allow a substantial paydown of all kinds of debt by the parties that survive.

Of course, many of the survivors would be those holding gold which could easily, with this scenario, go to $3000-$10,000 levels. The lenders and governments would not lose because real estate, due to unpayable taxes, would be transferd bact to them. It would be the old fashioned way of taking all the wealth away from the little guy and make him pay the bills. The big losers would be those holding the government debt.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/op.htmlLife among marionettes, er, currency traders. They dance but they don't really know why.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/od/story.html?s=v/nm/19990504/od/gold_1.htmlAs it should be...
Both cash and gold collected;
Gold gets the headline.

(a neat little story)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/sx.htmlShort and to the point.

MARKET UPDATE (5/4/99): Gold continued a gentle easing trend this morning with
London coming back on line uneventfully after Monday's holiday, Japan shut down for
Golden Week and all eyes on New York where things have been quiet for the past few
session as well. Dealers are saying that last week's short covering has abated for the time
being. The euro was up this morning on European rumors that behind the scenes
maneuvering on the Balkans War might lead to a cessation of bombing, but that could very
well be misplaced optimism on Europe's part. All in all, things are very quiet this morning
and we will be patient about this market.

Gold is doing well when you consider the dollar is soaring, the DJIA just traversed 1000
point in the shortest period in history, and U.S. markets are being viewed worldwide as a
safe haven in an unsafe world. All this rides though on a tidal wave of debt and easy money
-- an "economic Titanic" as The Reaper's R.E. McMaster calls it. Money growth (M3) is
up 11% over the past six months and most of that has gone into what McMaster calls "an
exhilarating narcotic" -- the stock market. For gold to be locked in this range just under
$290 is something of a victory for the yellow metal and warning to financial community that
underneath it all, there lies a fragile and wobbly foundation. Investor confidence, already
shaky, could graduate to a selling panic at any sign of this foundation cracking. The falling
bond market may have already issued a warning. Says McMaster (in his most interesting
latest issue a portion of which I offer as a way of bringing some intellectual interest to what
starts as a dull day in the markets): "We're seeing a blowoff, a mania in stocks, ironic, too,
isn't it, with the hit movies of late having such titles as Deep Impact, Volcano,
Armageddon, Titanic and now Noah's Ark. The DJIA represents the best of all upcoming
good times, as if the market was a discounting mechanism, while current events and movies
predicting the future are projecting the worst upcoming times. How long until a resolution
of this tension?"

We'll leave you with that thought. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters. The
sentiments raised in the paragraph above, by the way, are pretty much the sentiments
echoed by investors purchasing gold over the past few days. After a quiet second half of
April, due probably to the double whammy tax hit, things are picking up right where they
left off end of March at Centennial Precious Metals. Investors are buying this inexpensive,
barbarous relic as if it had some useful purpose. The financial press needs to get out the
hammer and resurrect somebody somewhere selling some gold....anybody will do. Public
interest in the yellow is on the rise again!

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_145000/145986.stmRead the timeline and decide for yourself...

No, I wasn't insulting you. That is just my brand of sarcastic humor. I really do enjoy your posts as well as many others on this forum. I spent alot of time in the principals office for my sense of humor many years ago. I share many, if not all of your fears, and it is refreshing to find a woman with your views. I bet you don't know too many either. I respect your thoughts and opinions, keep up the good work! Oh, and I still owe you a beer.

Michael,

I'm at work and don't have my password, but I don't want to
forget these thoughts. The Saudi/Iran talks seem to have
vast implications, not only on possible oil prices, but with
regards to reliance on the US military. Could it be that
Saudi doesn't have the same faith in the US, could it be that
a Saudi repudiation of the dollar might anger the US? An alliance
with Iran would lessen the need for US military presence, thus
opening the way for pricing oil in Euros or, perhaps, a basket of
currencies, ie dollar/euro/yen.

Could you post this for opinions. I'd be interested to what
you, Another and FOA think.

Steve

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/22.htmlFirst in a series of hearings.

Your scenarios for how the US government might traverse through this financial mess sound very feasible. Even gold at 10,000 doesn't sound unrealistic, given all the money creation that has gone on. I am praying for your sensible, intelligent view of things--may our government get it.

Tomcat, your post suggested; someone's hands.>
How many ways are there to control the price of gold and let it rise slowly? If it rises at all, selling short to hold the price would be a disaster to the short seller. Bringing the price from $420 to $280 in hindsight was not difficult in how it was done. Not smart for some but still a no-brainer. Selling long would not produce the same results.
Am I missing something here?

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia-May 4-FWN/UPI--Saudis were
surprised to find the price of gas for their vehicles has
increased by 50 percent without prior notice.
Gas station owners say they received instructions from
the main oil-producing company, ARAMCO, to raise their
prices today without providing reasons for the decision.
The sudden rise in refined oil came despite the fact
that Saudi Arabia is the largest oil-producing country in
the world, with 8 million barrels per day.
No official statement or comments were made about the
sharp rise and it is unclear whether the kingdom plans to
increase the price of its exported oil.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

New York-May 4-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished mostly softer here today, with gold, silver and
palladium all weakening but platinum managing a modest
gain.
Gold futures finished slightly softer in what was
described as a largely range-bound market, after prices rose
last week following an earlier decline that was tied to
worries about potential sales of International Monetary Fund
reserves of the metal. June gold slid 70 cents today to
settle at $286.90.
"With the gold, we've been in a $5 range," said Richard
Padron, director of research for Concorde Trading Group,
about the recent activity in this metal. "It's been more of
a technical picture....We're mostly range trading, and there
hasn't been much direction."

He pointed out that volume has been light so far this
week, in part because Tokyo markets have been closed so far
due to the Golden Week holidays in Japan.

He noted there are some market observers suggesting
that the worries about IMF sales may be "overblown" and that
any falls in price could be "buying opportunities."
Padron put support for June gold around $285 and
resistance around $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001278 Gasoline shortages coming?--Big decline in US oil production



Oil imports up 11% from one year ago. Current US crude
production lowest in 50 years:
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001278

Oil well and natural gas completions down dramatically
over one year ago: "Total exploratory completions were
down 40 percent in the first quarter and development
completions were down 33 percent compared to the same
quarter last year."
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001353

54,000 US petroleum jobs lost in past 16 months
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001347

What was this damage to US oil industry caused by?
Artificially low oil prices last 2 1/2 years, which
were caused by financial manipulations, oil
deriviatives, shorting, just like with gold.(See Simmons speech text)

Clint, I believe you are right. It has been said by many that there will be an avalanche of short covering. I just don't how much short blood would spill.

However, you make a very good point in that you can control the POG downward movement a lot easier than you can control the upward movement. Thanks for the correction.

In a Reuters report released in Toronto about an hour ago, Barrick Gold Corp. chairman Peter Munk blasted central banks and hedge funds "for undermining the value of gold." In a report that Reuters converted from an attack on central bank/hedge fund disinformation to an anti-gold propaganda piece, Munk condemned central banks for fostering "enormous negativism by "effectively exchanging hundreds of tons of gold in favor of interest-bearing U.S. dollar denominated securities." Munk also told reporters that hedge funds " 'out to make a buck' had exaggerated rumors and a general lack of information in the gold industry to profit from the downward spiral in bullion prices."

---------

The story came over our in-office Reuters service. I could not find an internet link to the full story.

"[Sen. Gramm spokesperson] Dempsey also reiterated that Americans' money is safer in banks rather than under a mattress or in a jar even if a glitch should occur, because the money is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)."

May 5 1999 - after reading Town Criers post "milestones" of DJII I felt the urge to check pertinent intraday charts. Vertigo, or the fear of flying seems an accurate description (IMHO).

(Has Abbey shot the last bull(et) at 11.00 p.m. last nite, as promised to old bud RR, or is it just coincidental. BTW GS IPO was trading up 46% at initial trade after being "conservatively" priced at 21,5 P/E. Let's wait for the double before all know the bubble was just that, a bubble.)
The only chart remaining pointing steeply upward was the 30y tsy yield curve closing at 5,72%, while XAU and other GM Indices at least formed a saucer type recovery.
Go Gold, man!(if you can)

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/exfutopt.html
FOA has provided some golden advice to follow the open interest. I found this link helpful because it also includes the definitions for reportable positions, non-reportable positions, percent of open interest, and spreading.

Give me a break - Peter Munk's ABX, the mother of all gold forward sellers, blames CB's and the rest of the alledged gold colluders for weak POG. Seems to fear shareholder's crucifying him as gold takes off, realising he won't ever be able to buy back in time ($400/oz - I bet'cha) .

According to Gold analyst Philip Gotthelf writing in his recent book, THE NEW PRECIOUS METALS MARKET, a fully Gold backed world currency system would put the book value of Gold at $200,000 an ounce. A 100% Gold backed US dollar would give Gold a book value of $50,000 an ounce.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/bhg.htmlTwo sides of the same fiat coin: Republicans and Greenspan square off against Democrats and Rubin.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/bhz.htmlOil, and dwindling "stockpiles."

Further to a topic raised by FOA, this is an interesting article on the possible Saudi/Iranian rapprochement.

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/050499.ASP

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/050499.ASPMaybe this linkage will work.

I have a question for the forum. There is much talk here about the true unhindered price of gold. If it were to rise substantially or meteorically as has been suggested here, would it take along with it things such as real estate, autos, normal items we purchase, or would it actually rise by itself, having been supressed and now have a higher purchase ability? I often hear it said that an ounce of gold always will buy a good suit. Is that the case here, where we will see items like this rise with gold...or will we be able to purchase dozens of suits? Thank you

$287.10. Going to be one hell of a year. Already:

War
Littleton
Oklahoma
Y2K
Dow 11,000
GS IPO
Hurricane forcasted to be worst than most.
Lowest oil prices and other commodities in 20 some years.
More and I can't remember...
What next?

In case anyone is interested...my wholesale went up two more cents today 61.55 reg super is 81.55 cts/gal can remember the middle price this 18 cents in about 45 days

Noone can predict how much of our foriegn and even domestic oil will be impacted by Y2k. One can predict, however, that even a small amount of oil/y2k trouble will give the oil firms an excuse to the raise the price at the pump. Even in a scenario where Y2k did not have a big impact nationally, the international troubles from y2k will provide a great excuse to raise prices.

If the y2k scare is high, people might be more than willing to pay higher prices and be thankful they have gas available to purchase.

Also, there will be an opportunity for compliant oil firms to purchase non-compliant firms.

Kitco spot now up $1.30, Quote Com not yet showing any gcm9 bid and asked, in the time frame since the jump so no way to confirm.

I too noted that gc9m hasn't budged since what? ... 19:12. If spot is indeed up by that amount then that is very good. A run tonight above $290.00 would do wonders for this baby gold bull.

Steve

Peter,

It just did $286.90 but then mine is 30-minutes behind too.

Date: Tue May 04 1999 20:18
mozel (@chris @The Hinge of Gold ) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Saw your posts. Someday, I suppose somebody will locate the ultimate source of the phantom barrels of oil which overhung the oil market and caused oil to follow gold down in $US. The consequences of it will be arriving for some time.

The International Monetary Fund and system was conceived and put into place to accommodate the refusal of the United States to settle trade in gold. To accommodate a fiat reserve currency, in other words. Now, the hinge of gold is set to swing in the other direction. When nations reduce or eliminate their holdings of $US as reserves, and every nation in the Euro circle has already done so, the position of the United States in the IMF SDR basket will be reduced. When the exchange markets see this pending, the $US will trade lower. Gold will rise, and a liquidity crisis and draults will ensue. The foreign exchange markets will sell the $US. These developments will further undermine the $US position in the basket of currencies. At this point the US could very possibly fail to make the cut that keeps the $US in the basket at all. The liquidity of the IMF itself will fail from these same consequences. The international monetary system based on the IMF will either be no more or gold will become a marked to market monetary asset within the IMF. In any case,
when the IMF no longer serves its purposes, the United States may very well liquidate its deposit and walk away from it.

http://www.barney.co.za/news/may99/eurobourse4.htmEight European stock markets agree to form Pan-European market.

Europe's biggest markets,London and Frankfurt were joined by those in Amsterdam,Brussels,Madrid,Milan,Paris and Zurich.....See above URL.

Although Britain is not currently part of the Euro-Zone all British quoted companies are free to issue shares in EUROS.

(Alan Greenspan quote:Competition in the market place is healthy for all parties.) Got Gold???........beesting

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/Khatami for military alliance with Riyadh

"TEHERAN - Iranian President Mohammad Khatami
yesterday stepped up calls for the creation of ajoint Muslim defence force with Saudi Arabia, saying a powerful alliance with Riyadh would make their enemies "fearful."

"The security of Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region is our security. We don't need foreign forces for that," the Iranian president told visiting Saudi Defence Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz."

ALL: I think the region needs a new gold coin to start things off correctly! Perhaps one is in the works?
Will have more to say on this defense pact in a few days.

FOA

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/butler050599.html
Ted Butler has a new essay over at one of those other forums (see URL). His comments have always seemed well thought out, even if I can't pretend to completely understand them. Maybe some of the better minds here than mine will be able offer some elucidation.

Interesting questions!....."how fast?"..In 1918 in Germany an egg cost a quarter of a mark...in the summer of 1923 an egg cost 5,000 marks...by November of that same year it cost 80,000,000,000 marks!......fast enough for you....?...comes from page 177 of Jerome Smith's "Coming Curriency Collapse" copyright 1980....I'v been waiting for this a long time!.....oh..btw...comunications are a bit "faster" today!
"what could be the trigger?"....my guess..(?)..I'm thinking maybe the "cooking oil will demand to be paid in real cheesecake" as per the poster "Long Thin and Hard on This[THOUGHTS] over at Kitco on Apr 27 at 17:40......was posted here later that evening.......REAL good read...read it as a riddle and when he said "I know".....I have the feeling he is in a position that does know how the "story will unfold".......let's face it ...Some "one" knows how this is going to turn out....but do to their position in the system can NOT go on record as the one who "spilled the beans"....I am greatful that those who "know" share their insite to the "huddled masses"...we could meet in a phone both...not to many paying attention as to what is happening today behind the sceines (sp)....can't think and spell at the same time!
"Control inflation"....by price control?...just makes for a black market with No tax receipts...ie Russia
"The big loser as to debt?"...take a look at that guy in the mirror in the morning...that is the loser....the taxpayer's so called Social Security Trust Fund....we are the biggest holders of gov debt....nice feeling....eh?
"rapid collapse vs controlled one?"...in 1964 our Quarters were silver....4 quarters would buy 4 gallons of gas...today the same 4 silver quarters will still buy 4 gallons of gas....but when we got the phoney quarters(one for one...remember? )...it now takes 20 phoney quarters to buy 4 gallons of gas.....our curriency has lost 80% of it's buying power in 25 years...a drip at a time...so why is their such a big concern about the remaining 20% .....?
Thx tomcat
Aristotle...I'll respond soon.....got to do more thinking on that one!

canamami, thanks for this enlightening post earlier--"Re: Saudi/Iranian Rapprochement."

Tomcat and Al Fulchino:
I don't believe I can with any level of credibility provide answers to your worthwhile questions...there are simply too many variables as the government would surely try to fight the path of least resistance in an effort to retain a measure of future control over the currency. In a general sense, it would be safe to say that the prices of all real things, including wages, would rise as a result. Some would adjust faster than others, depending on their position in the economic 'food chain.' Nothing would rise rise by a multiple greater than Gold, as its value would be assured by its eminent role in the monetary system. So while a good suit may in the future sell for several thousand devalued dollars, once ounce of Gold might very well be the monetary equivalent of two, maybe three good suits. Simply look at what happened to the prices of things in nations notorious for past devaluations, and on top of that, epect Gold to be held in much, much higher regard everywhere.

In such a scenario, we would expect those with cash savings to be hit the hardest, as its purchasing power drops with the devaluation. Debtors would happily pay off their loans with devalued dollars, while their lenders would suffer by equal and opposite degree. Gold savers would make out best of all. Businesses with inventory to sell would do ok also, as they are high in the food chain. They could easily mark up prices to compensate for the weaker dollar (just like they did in Germany in the early 1920's.)

Again, this is primarily a mental exercise that must be greatly simplified to generalizations. As long as markets remain open and vital, the economic principles of supply and demand , etc., can help you reason through a plausible outcome.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q2/1999_04/990427.174050.thin_long.htmHope this works!.....One must read the riddles of life!

Amazing. I've got a headache and am turning in. Sorry for the sloppy content as a result. We'll get into this a bit more tomorrow, ok? I've got some Belgian gold francs on the way...the excitement must have gotten the better of me. (Now you all know what the stirrings were in the castle's treasury today. Anyone care to donate fresh horses to the knights in charge of delivery?)

Excitement. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Your numbers from Germany are astounding.

Your point that we now have much faster communications is one with many ramifications. When the inflation starts many people won't have time to get out of the stockmarket and get into cash and then buy something of value. Three days could be equivalent to three german weeks (1940s). Makes one more good reason to keep physical gold.

BTW, I like your writing style with all the ... I never liked all the formalities...maybe I'll do a little myself... :)

I sure have not planned to use my Soc Security. I do have lots of pre 65 silver though. I am a believer in silver for hard times purchasing power. I plan not to spend gold in hard times but to hold it to preserve wealth.

Anyway, I enjoyed and benefited from your reply.

Fellow Ladies and Knights. I bid for your attention. Have you noticed that Sir Aristotle often takes several mundane facts and joins them together to arrive with a magical result that tranforms ones understanding! Truely, with this man one plus one tis greater than two. Tis magic I say. Me thinks his power is of the Gods. This could be how it comes to be that he shares so much of his wealth.

Perhaps Sir Aristotle could hold the royal position of Royal Alchemist. What say ye?

$286.70.

Are we sure he isn't another?

Date: Wed May 05 1999 03:08
mozel (@Fiat @Let It Be Done @The Emperor Commands @IMF @Gold Loans) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One day the Emperor Nixon refused to pay in gold and commanded that there be a fiat international monetary system. The World Bank and IMF were created. Now, in Europe gold is monetary again. Now, in Europe the limits of the Emperor's legions are being revealed. Soon, the Emperor's fiat international monetary system will be no more though it may survive in name. The day of interntational monetary fiat is drawing to a close. What happens next ?

In the past every $US of trade surplus which was converted to gold reduced the liquidity of the international monetary system. Yet, despite all the allure of $US bonds and interest and stock price increases and the penalites to holding gold built into the Articles of the IMF, nations have persisted in converting $US to gold. They have even bought gold forward. Gold Loans were a device to reverse this, a device to make sterile gold earn revenue. A gold loan increased $US liquidity just as a gold purchase reduced it. Gold loans to miners were a subsidy accomplishing two goals, at least. I think also gold loans were a device to move gold out of the physical control of the United States. To get European and English gold out of USG control in New Yawk and Denver. But, what happens now if the lenders stop lending ? Liquidity crunch. The lenders call the tune. Who are the lenders ? Well, who has gold to lend ? The Europeans and English, the BIS for the Saudi and Kuwaiti, and perhaps USG. By terminating the lending on a schedule, some of these lenders can effectively lay claim to every ounce of current production. And the price must rise. I have heard a rumor that when gold goes over $380, it will be time to head for the proverbial hills. I can't vouch for the particular number, but there is a number for POG above which there are not enough liquid $US to meet obligations. Particularly, leveraged obligations, the sort of obligations tied to a lot of gold loans. Bankruptcies and defaults create black holes in the universe of liquidity. Credit caught in them never comes out. The three "marketeers" got the international monetary system past the liquidity crisis caused by Asian black holes. And here approacheth another. It was interesting reading Gramlich's comments. If people only knew the trash quality of some of the paper which today collateralizes the fiat monetary system, they would head for the hills now. I have already posted about the scam of not returning the original loan papers which under the Uniform Commercial Code of thieves allows the banker to continue to collateralize on a paid off loan. How much of the international monetary system is collateralized by the US stock market ? Depository Trust Corporation. The day draweth nigh when there is nothing more to collateralize. And also the day when the collateral on the books has not its book value in the market. The Japanese problem and the American problem are perhaps not so different. Bubble A and Bubble B. I think I could show that, assuming usury on the loans, a gradual, irreversible deterioration of collateral quality is an inevitable consequence of a debt paper international monetary system. The embedded rate of usury determines the rate of deterioration.

LTCM showed the vulnerability. Now, the Emperor commandeth hedging. But, the problem of diminishing liquity with nothing left to collateralize to create new liquidity is the deeper problem for which there is no hedge. The number of $US taken out of the international monetary system to buy gold does not seem like so many. But, they are leveraged $US and that is the true measure of the drain on liquidity.

People mistakenly think based on wrong or insufficient understanding that the United States Government just prints money. But, it doesn't. Money is borrowed into existence. Land, improvements, and cars and other tangibles in the country and many intangibles are collateral for the currency. Foreclosure and seizure are the tools for recovery of collateral that are the foundation for full faith and credit in the currency and other obligations of the United States. Foreclosure by the banks for loans and by bondholders for bonds, and seizure by the IRS for tax debt. Accummulation by the usurious banks and insurance companies has been quietly proceeding for years as gagnrad pointed out. Vultures picking over and revealing the rot in the collateral of the credit dead. The S&L crisis was a mere foretaste, confined largely to a few states. A general slowdown will bring systemic collapse. USG cannot afford to defend the $US with interest rates.

Will the Federal Reserve have to put up gold as collateral to borrow Euros to buy $US to defend the currency ? Will an indexed bond be devised to entice others to lend to USG ? Will others accept the offer ? Whose index ? Measured by whom with whose data ?

What happens to $US now depends, it seems to me, on the motives of parties overseas. Trade barriers would prevent a devalued $US from exporting to Europe on price advantage. Europe seems to be raising those barriers, perhaps in anticipation. Reducing US exports also undermines $US position in the IMF basket. In hindsight, Kosovo may be revealed as an occassion to alienate European public opinion against both UK and US. The game afoot is one to force concessions without destroying relations, I think. The gameball is control of the $US price of the political metal. It is not inconceivable that POG will prove an unworkable concept altogether. And a new game with new rules will be required for trade among nations. Paper which does not have gold or silver for collateral would then become worthless between nations. The world got in its monetary mess when Germany collateralized the reichmark with German land and the US followed suit by collateralzing US land and improvements under FDR, domestically, and then under Nixon, internationally. But getting your collateral is a problem when it is under the physical control of the borrower. Repo work can be dangerous. Especially across borders. The world will get out of its monetary mess only when land and improvements are not used as the collateral for international trade. To bring the international monetary system to such a state that collateralizing gold for international trade and settlement is the necessary, inevitable choice of governments is the object of the game. Then, the gameball will not be POG, but gold itself.

Just saw a noteworthy item on the morning news. "First Lady Hillary R. Clinton unveiled the design for the new US Dollar coin, blah , blah...the new coin will be GOLD COLORED and will bear the face of ... replacing the Susan B. Anthony... etc."

Is there a reason why they want it to look like gold?

MARKET UPDATE (5/5/99): Gold showed no change from yesterday in early New
York trading after an equally stubborn performance in London. Gold these days remains
disinterested in pleasing either the longs or the shorts. It clings to a narrow range with
strong physical demand cropping up whenever it drops and bullion bank/hedge fund selling
whenever it rises. The most interesting gold news to surface over the past 24 hours comes
out of Toronto where Barrick Gold Corp. chairman Peter Munk blasted central banks and
hedge funds for undermining the value of gold. According to a Reuters report yesterday,
Munk charged that "hedge funds 'out to make a buck' had exaggerated rumors and a
general lack of information in the gold industry to profit from the downward spiral in
bullion prices." Munk joins Gold Fields chairman Chris Thompson in publicly charging a
concerted effort in holding down the gold price. Thompson earlier this month blamed Wall
Street bullion traders for spreading false rumors about Gold Field's hedge book. Interest
rate fears continue to plague the bond market today -- a worry that could spill over to
stocks. Crude oil is down slightly at $18.60 (June NYM). Gold is rallying a bit as we go to
fetch this over.

Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htmWas there ever any doubt?

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_ld5397.htmlPerspective from The Economist.

NO, Steve, Mozel is NOT ANOTHER ! The two are great in depth of thought and bring ideas to the surface for discussion, but totally separate in pattern of thinking and method of explaination. Would love to see the two of them debate though.
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/19199812/day2.html
I stand in favor of such an archive.

I also nominate everything I ever posted that has at least two paragraphs in it! (Something is bound to stick!)

Perhaps my post at the above link is my best.

GF

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/u7.htmlThe amazing world or currency traders...swapping dollars to make a buck.

Well, my friend, your kindest of words last evening have thoroughly embarrassed me, but I will gladly accept the official role you suggested as Royal Alchemist. For it was only yesterday that I again demonstrated the remarkable ability to turn paper into Gold! It is so easy, we should ALL be Royal Alchemists.

Hey Gandalf, I think the proper question should be, "Is it possible that SteveH is really mozel?"

Paper. Get you some, then turn it into Gold. ---Aristotle

Well Brudder Goldfly, I can not whole heartedly agree that everything that you have posted should reach the "Hall of Record", (take of instances the skit on the Euro getting stronger in Oil than the US$ --- The reviews of that one were -- well I really do not know, BECAUSE no one said a single word ! BUT, sometimes silence is a bad review !
Ok, I will second the nomination of one of your best --posting #1436 on 12/19/98 !!! Twas FUNtastic!!
<;-)

Yes, Ari --- Steve may well be Mozel --- up and posting deep thoughts and quotes at ALL times of the day !

I agree with your Royal Alchemists thought too. Tis NOW very easy to make the green paper (w/portraits of Dead Presidents) into Gold ! Today there is evidence of this neat trick, is going to become more difficult, as the ONLY thing going in the correct direction (up) is GOLD. The picture that Goldhearts have been hoping for, is truly starting to fully appear, in accordance with the prognostication of our friends and mentors FOA and ANOTHER. My challange is to equal the Scroouge McDuck stash before the first limit up day on the COMEX.
<;-)

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.htmlTake a look at that pointy, angry-looking black line that represents today's spot price. Gold has definately taken on the look of a lean, mean, fighting machine.

That reminds me of a discussion I had the other day with a friend. He was remarking that Gold certainly looked poised to go higher, but being a solid and inert asset such as it is, it would be a long hard road for it to rise in price. But he conceded that Gold was the only place to be given the overvaluation of the stock market--it could fall a lot easier than it could rise from these levels.

I agreed with his thoughts about the stock market, but asked him to reconsider his conclusion about the price of Gold. I reminded him that the price of Gold was not only based on the overall demand for this asset of solid value, but that it also included the 'dollar component' in the price. While Gold has itself as a guarantee of value, the dollar is only what people choose to believe it to be. It is on shakier ground than even the stock market. So I asked him to do the hypothetical math for the price of Gold, using solid value of Gold (in the numerator) and dividing by the 'value' of the dollar (in the denominator). Assuming today's dollar has a value of 'One', any decline results in a higher price for Gold. And if it fell toward zero, well...any value divided by zero is infinity.

Where my friend easily saw that Gold would moderately rise on demand alone, he now recognized that a vicious circle of price reinforcemant was now in place. A falling dollar would cause more demand for Gold, and each element would further boost Gold's 'price' while further diminishing the artificial confidence (and value) people place in the dollar.

I'm happy to say that as a result, he exercised his own skills as an alchemist and converted a great deal of paper into Gold. Methinks the castle's treasury-room below this Round Table must be getting quite bare. Hey MK, can you see the floor in places?

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Thanks for the Blast for the Past. It shows how fun it can be to wander around the Archives once in awhile, and dangerous, too! I always get drawn further in by viewing the previous day or next day, etc. It is my opinion that the Archives in their entirety could serve double duty as a Hall of Fame also.

Although having said that, I can see the benefit to people new to our castle in providing a well-lit reading room of Golden classics.

Where have you been lately, Goldfly? Busy buying Gold with both hands, I trust? ---Aristotle

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990505/oil_price__1.htmlSupply and demand, and remarkable cooperation for a common cause--within and outside of OPEC.

New York-May 5-FWN--The precious metals complex ended
the day on a firmer note, with the "path of least
resistance" in gold and silver appearing on the upside,
sources here said.
June gold added $1.60 to $288.50, while July silver
firmed 7.2 cents to $5.3970. In both metals, trade remained
slow due to the Golden Week holidays in Japan, which has
left markets there closed the first three days of the
week.
"But today, anyway, it appeared the path of least
resistance was to the upside," said Dave Rinehimer, head of
futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
He pointed out that June gold managed to take out last
week's $289 high, although not by much, topping out today at
$289.20.
"We're probing that resistance level," said Rinehimer.
"I think the idea was that if we moved above the highs, we
might be able to hit some stops on the upside. But there
didn't appear to be that much momentum after we took out
that (recent $289) high."
He noted that there did not appear to be any fresh
fundamental factors, although the market likely still has a
large net short speculative position--leaving room for
potential short covering. The market will get more
clarification on this Friday, when the next Commitment of
Traders report is due out.
Resistance in June gold was put at $290, while support
was pegged at $284.

"I think silver is basically following gold," said
Rinehimer about today's activity. "The volume is a little
bit lighter in the silver than in the gold.
"We saw a correction earlier in the week, and with the
gold turning up, there is a little more buying interest
coming into silver. But the volume is still pretty
light."
Rinehimer noted that gold and silver might have drawn
some support from worries about inflation, which has hurt
bonds lately.
"Gold and silver are pretty much technically driven at
this juncture. But with the recent breakdown in bonds and
stronger-than-expected economic news, the metals might be
reflecting some modest uptick in inflationary concerns,
although I don't think it's that meaningful."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.

http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19990504S0007This one is a must read...ripe with notable quotes!!

FOXThe struggle for the richest goldmine in SA is over.
The richest goldmine, which is Driefontein (DRFNY), is now a part of Gold Fields (GLFD), not Gold fields of south Africa (GFSA). Gold Fields will be noted on the Nasdacq in stead of Driefontein . The exchanging rate will be 155 Driefontein for 100 Gold Fields;
Look at today's quote for DRIEFONTEIN !!

Foxforgot the link http://news.24.com/English/Business/Companies/ENG_46143_352283_SEO.asp

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/1k.htmlBlistering pace of recent quarter is unsustainable.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/5c.htmlAnother must read. This article is more candid than most about the position of the dollar.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_336000/336239.stmThings sure look bleak when your money goes bad--the wheels of your economy have no grease and no longer may turn.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334432.stmSomeone at the BBC wrote this one specifically for our Round Table...glimpses at the 5th Horseman.

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 5--June gold settled up $1.60 at $288.50 per ounce after
reaching $289.20 per ounce today, its highest level in almost two
months. "A little bit of inflation is creeping into gold and silver. A bit of
the psychology that's weighing on the bond market is benefiting gold and
silver," said Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch. He noted that gold and
silver were being helped by continuing strength in crude oil prices. With a
large number of speculative shorts still out there "people are watching gold,"
he said.
Traders noted that some players are fearing a short covering rally and some
suggested that some of today's climb was options-related. The climb today in
the Philex XAU and Amex gold bugs index (HUI) also helped boost prices of the
underlying commodity said traders.

While some called this a "flight to quality" in reaction to the huge jumps in
"paper" which pushed the Dow Jones industrial average to record highs Wednesday, others
were dismissive.
One trader called the incursion of money into gold, which was accompanied by
some yen buying, a "flight to junk."
Traders noted that gold continues to have trouble rallying above the $290
resistance level.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $288.5, up $1.6; RANGE: $289.2-286.5

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
No further reproduction without written permission

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=f8efbe2ae6f64b561ffcc1dec4825838Explains a mechanism whereby the dollar will fall as stocks fall.

Sir Aristotle, I have heeded your wisdom and just turned paper into gold. Twas not difficult at all. The Chair of Royal Alchemist is surely honored with your dignity and integrity.

TC, interesting. Goldmeisters have become junk dealers. Are we looking for a last laugh here?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/ba1.htmlCurrency strategist says today they have switched from bullish on the dollar.

(Clint H: I can almost sense the theme to Sanford & Son spilling out of my ears)

Probably, yes for chartists, Elliot wave and Fibonacci et al apostles, a decisive move of POG was the missing link to catch up with XAU (sorry no confirmation yet, but right direction) on respective trends. I would long (hence & be long)to be a believer, but still feel the forces of the paper mongers having the upper hand (though, "white hand" seemingly is slowly starting to surrender to reality?), but we're not there yet.
BTW, Butler expressed my thoughts (last post} more implicitly - gold forwards or leases are effectively shorts!
Goldilocks markets driving Goldilocks economies? What's left? Go Gold Stocks vs. Gold -MAN" S(-ucks)achs - .....

Go junk!

Question: When stocks continue to rise and earnings continue to plummet or prove to be non-existent, does that stock begin to take on less the characteristics of an equity and more the characteristics of a currency? To think of this in another way, if stocks have become a proxy for currency in the minds of the masses, what happens when stocks decide to quack like a duck?

Years ago I acquired a number of Revolutionary War debt instruments which had been redeemed by the federal government not in specie, but by issuing another note. A hole was punched in the old note and it was retired. Very convenient for the government but no doubt disturbing to the note holder who was left without a choice in the matter and was conscripted as a creditor of the government.

A promise to pay was met with another promise to pay. A stock is not even a promise to pay. A stock carries the full faith and credit of.......no one! Yet wave after wave of currency has been printed and pumped into the stock market by investors who have come to believe it is a promise to pay. A market which was invented essentially to distribute risk has become a proxy for money. When the tulips drop from $10,000 to 50�, the public will discover that there is no deposit insurance, no redemption recourse, no gold backing, only a $10,000 tulip worth 50�. Stocks have become a paper promise without a safety net of any description in this best of all possible worlds.

Quack.

Gold just (june that is) hit 289.00 in overnight trading.

All systems check.

rockets, check.
instruments, check.
helmets,check.

All systems go.

10, 9, 8, 7, ....

http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html"Bankers, (real ones) are always aware of the potential for a meltdown and the economic game doesn't go on without their involvement. Commerce requires that all transactions have to be paid for, which means financed. A good look at a list of bullion banks is also revealing since many of the "old" names in banking are also the "old" names in bullion dealing. However, you don't see too many "old" names on the share registers of high flying internet stocks. The "old" bankers have seen it all before and their guidelines go back several hundred years."

"Patriarchs may come and go but established banking guidelines do not change. That's the advantage of experience and an understanding of the cyclical nature of commerce and economics. "To hell with the new age theory, give me the gold any day", may well be their motto."

"The fallback position of European Central Banking and of the old established European family banking groups has always been gold bullion."

Read this entire commentary, "The Winds of Change: An Investment Strategy Beyond the Year 2000", reproduced at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinon by permission of AurumBank Incorporated. Clink the link, select "The Winds of Change" from the index, and return to the Round Table with your opinions that we all value.

A person to respect. But boy did I in fun start a rumor:

Date: Wed May 05 1999 22:10
crazytimes (@ Earl) ID#344326:
Copyright � 1999 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for pointing out Mozel's post. His ideas ( in my mind ) resonate with those of ANOTHER. It is interesting that someone on the USA Gold Forum was wondering if Mozel was ANOTHER. I don't believe that is the case at all but there are similarities. Mozel ( IMHO ) is the most sparkling and precious gem found on Kitco. His posts are brilliant and get to a profound level. There are many times I don't understand all of what he is saying but he is leading me to a place. He is also one of Kitco's most "human" of posters. I know that man ( or woman ) cries for the loss of freedom and liberty that is occuring in the USA. If there ever was a Kitco poster I wanted to meet in person and shake hands with, it is Mozel.

http://www.sanford-and-son.com/sounds/sanfordtheme1.wav
Crier!! ClintH!! Click the link!

Half a meg download. Save it to your disk and run it in a loop!

GF

'A promise to pay was met with another promise to pay. A stock is not even a promise to pay. A stock
carries the full faith and credit of.......no one! Yet wave after wave of currency has been printed and
pumped into the stock market by investors who have come to believe it is a promise to pay. A market
which was invented essentially to distribute risk has become a proxy for money.'

Hey Quack - now this is excellent insight. This last sentence sums the situation up quite nicely. Mozel's post is right on the money. Where is the new collateral? I was in Minneapolis this morning listening to CNBC and they were actually talking about the extremely disappointing earnings forecast from Disney. Pretty much cut in half from 3 months ago. The monetary ship seems to be taking on water. Markets today seemed to confirm a loss of confidence.

ET

Goldfly, thanks for the great music link. I'll definately have it playing while I open my precious package upon its arrival. The anticipation of the arrival of the Castle's delivery men is always the sweetest form of agony.

Tomcat, the fruits of my latest dabblings into the noble art of alchemy are a tidy assortment of Belgian gold francs and British Sovereigns. I'm jazzed up over this particular round of payday conversions (er, I mean alchemy) because I'm adding a new variety to the Aristotle Treasury (the Belgians.) MK told me they looked pretty sharp in his opinion, so I said "Ship 'em!" to a small pile, sight unseen. (Psssst...I'll let you know when they arrive whether MK is a good judge of aesthetics.) Judging from their Gold content, I imagine they will stack perfectly with my Swissies, and my French Napoleons, Angels, and Roosters. I find that I enjoy this form of idle banter over the trivial matters of Gold coins every so often. In addition to being the foundation of serious economic elements, I enjoy Gold for the lighter side as well. And while Gold priced at $285 per ounce is more 'fun' than any genuine goldheart could have ever imagined, the coming days will definitely reveal Gold at the center of the serious economic business that it ever has been. When I try my hand at Fortune Telling, a dispassionate, clinical assessment of the future reveals more reason for concern than optimism regarding the Dollar. I believe I'll stick to Alchemy.

If you don't mind me asking, what forms did you stir up with your alchemy project? Do you have a favorite?

Gold. We're ALL getting us some. ---Aristotle

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/22199810/day2.htmlYou liked that link? Try this one.... Now you'll earn your keep!

But before that... Where have I been? Busy. A wife and four kids will keep a man occupied��. And a house�.. and a job��.etc, etc.

But I've been lurking. I noticed a couple of weeks ago, you had a line in one of your posts-something like "Adopting the gold standard was one of the great unsung achievements of mankind." Now I'll point you to the link above. [I'LL WAIT NOW WHILE YOU GO READ POST 727] I had pretty much settled the issue by simply accepting the situation as it is. Aragorn and FOA both had good responses and FOA had some nuggets to chew on in some subsequent posts (even though he didn't then address it directly.) But I never was fully satisfied and that line in your post got me thinking again.

So now, with some new knights at the table, I'll posit the question again: What event(s) in human history brought gold forth as the measure of worth?

I'm not asking to be convinced of gold as the standard for money. I want to know- Whose idea was it? Or how about--- What is the earliest record of gold settling a business transaction?

ANOTHER, are you listening in? As someone accustomed to taking the long view and perhaps not subjected to the cacophony of life in the west, with it's deleterious effects on knowledge and wisdom, could you shed some light on the origins of gold as the denominator of value? Or is this lost in the dawn of time?

Like I said in post 727, perhaps this question cannot be answered. Maybe I'm chasing a shadow. But it nags at me.

Got answers?

GF

Tonight's post by Michael #5629, gave me a feeling of deja vu on two things I said way back. (#--#) When looking back through my USAG folder for them, I discovered one was in my first ever Post, #785. There was also a follow up later that day, (Oct 25) #795, and then when I found the other, in my third post, #875 -1 Nov, I saw a continuity in the threesome. So, kind of as an experiment, (and to avoid archive tasking) I removed all irrelevant prattle and put them together for a re-run as a single entity.. ( I'm glad I said "perhaps", in the first sentence). The early part of this is a bit out of date, but the rest is fundamentally maybe more pertinent now.

Last weeks five-day Dow chart of five-minute blips shows a classic bouncing ball, losing its momentum and perhaps breaking through to resume the downtrend of the season. The fundamentals behind this would appear to be (1) hedge funds et al having huge paper "losses" which would result in massive debt if realized, and (2) major institutions conferring with Greenspan and "bailing out" LTCM.

These institutions are not (always) fools. Therefore, the fix is in. A "surprise" interest rate cut creates a psychological rally which now runs out of steam as the funds square off positions, and equities resume their travel toward real value (Dow 5000??).

The true situation propelled gold to $304 before the Fed/banker pep rally got the investing public hyped up again on the impossible dream. The stampede through Dow 8600 threw water on the "safe haven" fire.

My commodity broker describes the global financial world as a giant parking garage for money, with everyone seeking the best space. He then describes the American pension funds, IRA's etc. as a huge glacier moving massive amounts of money into the garage.

So, for these investors to go for gold, there must be the expectation of profit. For that to occur, there must be a believable uptrend. So what makes gold go up? Supply and Demand of course. However, while gold is a finite resource, it is nevertheless a commodity and does not produce anything. The booming economy of the decade has obviously not created a price-raising demand. That leaves (1) the rush to a safe haven, or (2) the potential for profit from a declining currency value in the country of the gold investor. When and if these factors occur, then the uptrend that will attracts the "followers" will be upon us.

Here are some further thoughts on that "glacier." Pension funds, automatically, and IRA's etc., voluntarily, keep generating money needing a place to park, as long as the "economy" stays in gear. Now, spending stock market profits is, in effect, spending some of the investment money of the guy you sold it to. He doesn't have it any more. It's not "in the Market." What is "in the Market" is what he gets when he sells it. So, in a sense,# stock securities are a global currency like dollars, franks, marks and yen,# serving as a storage of value which can go up or down for similar reasons. As currencies are traded like commodities, the dumping of a nation's currency can cause a loss of productivity due to less sales (exports). That's sort of the tail wagging the dog, since in a healthy economic environment, the productivity would determine the value of the currency. Likewise, a recession can curtail the momentum of the investment "glacier". Or the collapse of the value of this stock market currency can create the recession. Anyway it goes down, when the mutual fund redemption stampede heads for the Market exits, a lot of what's still got wheels will be parking in Gold.

Just in time to celebrate the current holiday! The *trick* of default and devaluation was deflected by the *treat* of 95 billion dollars in IMF loans. So, Nations A, B, and C turn money over to Nations E, F, and G to pay creditors. The funds keep changing hands, circulating the global scene as ledger entries, earning interest as they go.

I remember, as a teenager, one friend saying to another to whom he owed money, "I'd rather owe it to you than do you out of it." #As long as you call a loan "a loan", it's not in default#. All debt gets "squared off" by (a) the earnings of increased production facilitated by the new capital, (2) confiscation of tax payers' money or (3) default. Therefore if, for example, the contributing nation spends less on, say, welfare, in order to hand over funds to the receiving nation, who then increases production capability, things could get better. But, if potential productive capital is depleted in order to lend it to other nations for various squanderers' activities, then things get worse. Sooner or later, original debt and the growing interest balance due will overwhelm the system.

So we have here on Planet Earth a small group of Mr. Spocks, applying Vulcan logic to the games of currency, stocks, bonds and commodities and being amazed at the antics we see, while there's a mass of Dr. McCoys out there saying, "Gold's dead, Jim."

This brings me to the subject of trading "spikes" mentioned by MK and others in recent posts. < I was considering a "spike" to be a sharp move up followed by an immediate sharp move back down>

First of all, since Gold is a single entity in its trading mechanics, it will behave much more as a thinly-traded issue than as a stock market or major stock issue. Secondly, Gold is more likely to be held as a cash potential.

Selling pressure can come from something being out of favor or it can come from a desire to convert a large quantity to cash. It is basic to trading that to sell a large quantity of stocks or commodities, one must "sell into strength." So if there is "overhead supply," waiting for strength to sell into, then a run-up in price will be met by a quantity of selling, and hence the spike.

Only when the desire to hold gold creates more demand than the desire or need to sell it, can the price move up and stay there. Copyright by Peter Asher 5 May 1999.

Steve's going to go berserk when he gets up, if this trend continues for a few more hours. 289.4 & spot up .85.

talking to?

Date:
Thursday, May 06, 1999 03:56 PM



By FLOYD NORRIS
THE NEW YORK TIMES

NEW YORK -- Is gold on its way to
becoming just another commodity?
The people who run the world's
financial system are doing their best
to secure that fate for the metal that
once was viewed as the only "real"
money.

The process of removing the glitter
from gold has been a gradual but
inexorable one, and is one of the
most telling counters to the argument
that national governments are less
important in this era of globalisation.
Much of the world now is quite happy
to accept the idea that a greenback
backed by US Federal Reserve Board
chairman Alan Greenspan is just as
good as one backed by gold.

Certainly gold's reputation as a store
of value has eroded. At the peak of
the gold frenzy in 1980, an ounce of
gold cost US$873, precisely that
day's level of the Dow Jones
industrial average. Now the Dow is at
11,014, about 38 times higher than
the US$287.60 ( S$485 ) price of gold.


Actually, that measurement
understates the amount by which
stocks have out-performed gold. If
you had owned stocks all those
years, you would have received
substantial dividends. If you owned a
lot of gold, you got no dividends but
did have to pay storage fees for the
stuff.

That is, in fact, how the central
bankers of the world look at gold
these days. International Monetary
Fund managing director Michel
Camdessus last week said he expects
the fund to sell gold for the first time
in two decades. The Clinton
administration is pushing for such IMF
sales to help finance a programme to
forgive debts owed by very poor
countries.

The money received from the gold
sales is to be invested in government
securities that will provide income,
and that income will pay off the
loans.

The assumption is that gold, which
does not pay interest, is a lousy
investment.

A couple of weeks ago, the Swiss
electorate voted to begin untying the
Swiss franc from its gold backing.
The Swiss central bank could begin
selling gold as early as next year.
Once again, the argument was that
selling gold was a way to find easy
money for good deeds. To those who
still view gold as the only real money,
having the Swiss defect is a bit like
discovering that Rome is embracing
Protestantism. It seems likely that
more central banks will join those
that have already begun selling gold.

The argument against retaining gold
is that its day is past. Once it was
useful as a hedge against inflation
that would hold its value when paper
currencies did not. Now financial
markets have their own sophisticated
ways to hedge against inflation.

Once gold served as protection for
investors against governments that
debased their currencies. But the
lesson people have drawn is to
believe in the dollar. Dollarisation
amounts to a sort of a gold standard
without gold. There would be a
universal money whose value was
based not on gold, but on the wisdom
of Mr Greenspan and his successors
at the Federal Reserve Board. If the
de-monetisation of gold continues,
the price is likely to keep falling as
central-bank sales more than offset
any increase in demand from jewellers
or industrial users. That could change
if it turns out that central bankers
are not the geniuses they are now
deemed to be. But for now, the world
believes in Mr Greenspan and sees
little need for gold.

Holy cow Batman. Spot 288.00, June gold now...$289.40. VSE index up to 453.41.

Good thoughts you had there.

GC9M just hit 190.2 on large volume !
<;-)

THAT IS 290.2 !!!

Goldfly. Thanks for the music. One man's JUNK is another man's treasure. Last laugh...last laugh...last laug...;)

http://www.the-news.net/The Bilderbergers are having a meeting again and I didn't get invited.

MARKET UPDATE (5/6/99): Gold continued its strong move toward the $290 barrier in
an uptrend that began about mid-session in New York yesterday, carried over to Asian
trading and then gathered pace in London. Gold seemed to be reacting to the strong
performances of the euro and yen (to a lesser degree) over the past few trading days. The
down move in the dollar began just after the IMF meeting in Washington which ended in
rancor among major G-7 partners. Gold has responded, for the most part, to what appears
to be a change in fundamentals in the currency markets -- a change which has included
unusually strong pressure on the 30-year Treasury bond. Traders, concerned that we might
be in for a period of dollar weakness, have begun to unwind various carry trade positions
that rely on a strong dollar and this in turn is touching off short covering. There was a
report on Reuters yesterday afternoon that traders were unwinding Swiss franc carry trade
positions amidst growing concern that the euro/Swiss franc rallies were for real. One
should probably assume that the rally in gold also contains an element of short-covering. A
London trader quoted in Reuters London report this morning said that gold strength had to
do with a speculative showdown taking place in New York -- "a tug of war between
different speculators." There was no further elaboration. Amidst all the action, the XAU
gold stock index rose to a 5 1/2 month high continuing a trend from the 60 level to nearly
80 yesterday -- a 30% gain in just a little over 30 days. Our Canadian friends will not be
pleased to know that the Canadian government sold more gold in April (with minimal
impact on the market) and is now down to 2.2 million ounces -- now down to a dismal 70
tons. If history is a teacher, Canadians would be well served to put themselves on the gold
standard. When a country depletes its gold reserves, the currency goes in the tank and the
currency holders become the victims of the government's misguided policies.

That's it for today. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.

�

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

Christine: My post under the heading "Quack!" should have made reference to "junque" -- as in $10,000 tulip bulbs which reach maturity at 50�.

Steve: The NYTimes must have seen my market report yesterday and called in good ole Floyd to remedy the situation. It had to have been a good two days since we had a major anti-gold propaganda piece in major publication.

Peter: The problem I see with making stocks currency is what we should call "The Greenspan Dilemna". Raise interest rates and you pull the plug on the stock market. Leave them alone and you have eventually have water flowing over the top of the bucket into goods and services -- a classic price inflation. My advice to those who have made extraordinary paper profits in the stock market would be to take out 25% and convert to real money -- now while you can. If the equity inflation continues that 25% will be made up soon enough by more funny-money-stock-value. If the plug is pulled, you will have preserved some of your gains through gold ownership. If the stock market bubble continues to inflate after conversion, wait until it rises sufficiently then do the same thing all over again. Please keep these instructions with your stock portfolio file.

Junk your junque.

Off to the office. Quack.

I have posted before how there has been a rumor at Gold-Eagle forum that originated in February, l999 re: POG being ALLOWED to start rising in June, l999. The rumor has been hypothesized as having somthing to do with the introduction of euro. Since that time there have been a number of unusual coincidences relating to June, especially the announcement of G Sachs IPO for early May, not too long after the rumor came out. Now this report of the Bildeberger meeting June 2-7, 1999.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990506/ts/economy_fed_greenspan_2.html
``I do not say we are in a new era, because I have experienced too many alleged new eras in my lifetime
that have come and gone,'' he said.

'Nuff said.

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlNow updated at the page "This Week in Gold" is the always excellent recount of events by George Milling-Stanley of The World Gold Council in his WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY.

Click on the link above to review the behind-the-scenes events that shaped the gold market for April 26 - April 30, 1999. And by popular demand, the archive has been retained and expanded!

Grab your torch and venture down the hall--eleventh door on your left.

http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html[A repeat, in case you missed it]
Hear ye! Hear ye! All good Knights and Ladies: I direct your attention to The Gilded Opinion

"Bankers, (real ones) are always aware of the potential for a meltdown and the economic game doesn't go on without their involvement. Commerce requires that all transactions have to be paid for, which means financed. A good look at a list of bullion banks is also revealing since many of the "old" names in banking are also the "old" names in bullion dealing. However, you don't see too many "old" names on the share registers of high flying internet stocks. The "old" bankers have seen it all before and their guidelines go back several hundred years."

"Patriarchs may come and go but established banking guidelines do not change. That's the advantage of experience and an understanding of the cyclical nature of commerce and economics. "To hell with the new age theory, give me the gold any day", may well be their motto."

"The fallback position of European Central Banking and of the old established European family banking groups has always been gold bullion."

Read this entire commentary, "The Winds of Change: An Investment Strategy Beyond the Year 2000", reproduced at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinon by permission of AurumBank Incorporated. Clink the link, select "The Winds of Change" from the index, and return to the Round Table with your opinions that we all value.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/3a.htmlA London bullion dealer confessed to "a sneaking affection for gold following months of coolness." Could this be Redd Foxx, maybe? :-)

I don't scare easily, but this is a horror movie!!

include a "globilaztion summit", during
which nations which cling tenaciously to
their sovereign identities will be
denounced by its leadership.

The principal feature of Bilderberg is that
it seeks one global government, (a
structure similar to the European Union),
while counteracting nationalist sentiment is
supposedly its greatest battle. Renewed
calls for the United Nations to be able to
directly tax all people of the world is said
to be another major topic to be tabled for
discussion in Sintra.>

The 10 cent 'defense stamps' that people saved into a war bond, had a pictue of the Corcord 'Minute Man' on it. The first militia !!

In the 1700s' there was Boston and tea, Now maybe it will be Seattle , Toyotas and Wet Suits.

http://www.kitco.com/image/nygold.gif
I'm not getting excited, tomorrow is when they'll try to slam the POG.

GF

<``The difficulty in this market is expanding the participation once you have got the shorts covered. It's
a small constituency,'' the dealer added.>

Yes, but (per my 'rerun post' this morning) Gold is a thin issue. As the roar of the tornado appoaches, all heads are turning to te market exits. Gold is, as the Air Force was to Richard Gere in "Officer and a Gentleman", when he said "I got nowhere else to go"!!

GOLDFLY: don't be a party pooper. This is starting to look like the real thing. Todays power surge is happening even wiyh a retreat in Oil. What I thing is most sugnificant is Gold/T-bonds!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/7s.html``The market is getting creamed,'' said one trader.

The improving sentiment of real money is also improving my spirits as I see some of my favorite goldies heading north impressively as I reminiscened about my last trip stateside, noticing that most gas stations, while leaving their cash registers unlocked, lock their toilets. Could it be they value the paper there higher than the one with the goverment's ink on making it totally worthless as Mark Twain already remarked in his time. What's really changed? The concept of reality and economic cycles seems to catch up eventually on the new era crowd. AG's address today was as I interpret it pretty clear on overvaluation, inflation and real (vs virtual) values.
@Christine re. Bilderberger. Called upon one of the 3 ( I know in Autriche) BB's, a former senior partner at my old bank and a l.t. pres.of the industrialist under a different context, of course. Anyway, he confirmed the meeting - and changed the subject. June it is and early June at that- BTW.
We'll watch paper turn yellow (ooops golden, gilded...) together, yes.

Spot just popped up to +2.70 & 30 yr. T-bonds just tanked

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990506.htmExcerpts from: The American economy in a world context
At the 35th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
May 6, 1999

...Our negative personal saving rate indicates that the wealth effect is alive and well. The latter has unquestionably been a key factor in the rise in domestic demand, which despite productivity improvements has exerted increasing pressure on labor markets. Thus, should equity markets retrench, consumer and business investment demands would, doubtless, weaken considerably.

A more distant concern, but one that cannot be readily dismissed, is the very condition that has enabled the surge in American household and business demands to help sustain global stability: our rising trade and current account deficits. There is a limit to how long and how far deficits can be sustained, since current account deficits add to net foreign claims on the United States.

It is very difficult to judge at what point debt service costs become unduly burdensome and can no longer be sustained. There is no evidence at this point that markets are disinclined to readily finance our foreign net imbalance. But the arithmetic of foreign debt accumulation and compounding interest costs does indicate somewhere in the future that, unless reversed, our growing international imbalances are apt to create significant problems for our economy...

...To return to my opening question: can we project how long the economy of the United States can act as a buffer to weakness elsewhere?

The answer: not easily. History counsels us that sharp changes in direction are rarely, if ever, anticipated. Indeed, were these changes readily apparent, presumably, businesses would adjust to that anticipation and, hence, significantly damp the cyclical tendencies in the economy.

The outlook for the American economy is particularly relevant to the realization of a full recovery of East Asia. To be sure, there are definite signs of activity bottoming out in Indonesia and Hong Kong and evidence of some gains in Thailand and Malaysia, with the most progress reported in Korea. Japan, whose economy is considerably larger than the rest of East Asia combined, excluding China, is still bedeviled by its inability to restore a vibrant banking system, though they seem to be making some progress.

But the emergence of East Asia out of its severe crisis, though real, remains fragile. The very improvements now under way could be threatening the resolve of a number of countries to adhere to the disciplined plans that have been instrumental in their recovery to date.

Brazil has managed to stem a prospective implosion that followed in the wake of its currency crisis. But there, as well as some other parts of Latin America that seem to have dodged the bullet of a Brazilian-induced contagion, the potential for a letdown in their policy discipline that has served them well, also is a concern.

But, in general, discipline is likely to hold, because the lessons of 1997 and 1998 are too recent and vivid to be soon forgotten. Hence, with a little backing and filling, the emerging nation crises of the last two years are likely to gradually dissipate and these countries should move onto a significant recovery path. The overhang of debt and difficult unresolved structural problems, however, are likely to keep a vigorous recovery at bay. But, in the end, their outlook will be influenced importantly by developments in Japan, Europe, and especially the United States.

In Europe, gains in real GDP have remained modest, though inflation appears nonexistent. Arguably, the rapidity of the introduction of cutting-edge technologies has not seemed to be as evident in Europe as in the United States. Though somewhat puzzling, this is surely temporary, unless the thrust of innovation in the United States comes to an unexpected halt, or existing rigidities in European markets unexpectedly persist in the face of growing international competition. Europe, as a consequence, is likely to remain a positive contributor to world economic stability in the years ahead.

Let me conclude with an observation I have made before: We policymakers have been engaged in a lot of on-the-job training in recent years. The remarkable American economy, whose roots are still not conclusively known, and the Asian crises that caught us by surprise, among other humbling experiences, have made policymakers particularly sensitive to how fast the world can shift beneath our feet. We need to be alert to the dramatic changes that are continuously confronting us, but recognize that neither the fundamental laws of economics, nor human nature, on which they are based, has changed, or is likely to change. This will be an especially important notion to keep in mind as we continue to grapple with the rapidly changing global economic environment and its regulatory structure, which this symposium has been convened to address.

New York-May 6-FWN--The precious metals complex ended
the day mostly higher, with gold looking stronger
technically and palladium generating follow-through after a
technical reversal on Wednesday.
June gold futures closed $2.20 firmer at $290.70.
"We've sort of got gold on a little bit of a technical
breakout here," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst
with Pegasus Econometrics. "Last week, we hinted at it with
the move through some resistance at $287.70. But we weren't
sure then whether we meant it or not.
"Now, the market looks like it really means it."

He pointed out that the pullback in the equity and bond
markets are factors normally favorable to gold.
"But so far I see this as primarily short covering in
nature and not really a function of anybody liking gold from
the long side all that much," said Evans.
While a new Commitments of Traders report is due out
Friday, the analyst reminded that the last one nearly two
weeks ago showed that the funds were heavily short. "And
because they were heavily short, that suggests there is
significant upward potential here, even on the basis of
short covering," said Evans.
Evans put initial support at previously failed
resistance of $287.70, then Tuesday's $286.20 low.
Resistance was pegged at $293, then the $300 to $302
area.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/bef.htmlUtterly hopeless...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334893.stmWall Street cynics point to the fact that US market analysts are issuing hardly any "sell" recommendations anymore, as their firms are ever closer intertwined with the companies that they are supposed to rate.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_336000/336859.stmEuro now at a three-week high, with focus now on gaining confidence on the international markets.

By Ross Allen, Bridge News
New York--May 6--
Gold clawed out gains, with heavy call-options activity both a symptom
and an indicator of rising bullish sentiment in the gold market. Especially
heavy open-interest is seen in $290 and $295 calls for Jun and Jly expiry.
"There's a little inflation psychology that's been creeping into the gold
market," said Bill O'Neill, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. "Stocks came under a
little bit of pressure, the bond market's under tremendous pressure and the
dollar was a little weak. The only thing that was somewhat negative was the oil
market, but that's had a pretty good run up."
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, today indicated that
inflation is a concern, with tight labor markets remaining a "critical upside
risk."
"The Greenspan talk plays into what the risks to the economy are and they
are all of higher inflation," noted William Griggs, managing director of Griggs
& Santow.
Gold is typically treated as a hedge against inflation and system risk;
however, it has lost some of its usefulness as a store-of-value as various
financial hedges have appeared in recent decades. [such as LTCM?! (sorry, couldn't resist)--T.C.]

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $290.70, up $2.20; RANGE: $291.20-288.10

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Chris: Remember awhile back when I clarified my info
that started the June rumour I closed by saying there was
more on the subject?? WELL my 2 banker associates
"both" told me the Bildeberger Conference would be a
defining moment for Gold and changes I would not believe
yet would make me happy and increase my wealth. Now I
am still very much in the dark as to what they meant but I
have to feel they and MANY others know something about
these defining changes for Gold. Far too many smoking
guns for there not to be bodies buried in the shadows of
the forest.YGM.

Noticeable decrease in energy in gold-net country when Yukon gold miner not around! Geeeeeeez--what info. If you don't get a chance to post it around, I will pass it along. Chris

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/bkp.htmlThis is a thorough end-of-day wrap-up.

The first syllable in my handle has just appreciated exactly 55% price(un-?) wise in the last 2 days...( no touting it's not the symbol,and lot's of co's around), considering it's a junior. Not bad, though it depreciated about 90% since 96, like most of the explorers and developers (even after proven reserve/resource of a couple of million oz's in optimal area as in this case). Q? remains- what's mineable or 'forwardable'? Who will care tomorrow, IMHO not the junior again.

MK and all thank you for your relentless endeavours pro gold. I'll better get back working at it too, but won't stop listening to the esteemed knights of the round table.
Good luck to all!

$290.70 (is it time to pull out my TA of about four weeks ago yet?).

Daily gold is tracking up its upper bollinger band. Expect one to three more up days before a sider or downer. Weekly gold upper bollinger now at $298.50. Last five weeks have been up per chart I am seeing. Five weeks are the most 'up' weeks in a row since January.

At what point does gold jump $20.00? Where are the big stops at? $300? Where?

Had to take a long walk after I read YGM's latest June
rumor at USAGold. This is the fairytale (scenario) that came into my head as I was walking.

They will have to let things get bad enough, scare the
world, but especially scare the US. Then they will come
out with an announcement of what they are going to do to
save us.

What will scare us:
1. Stock market decline or crash
2. Dollar falling, euro rising
3. Price of oil rising
4. Gasoline shortages in US which are being orchestrated
as we speak.

What they will propose:
1. Have to compete with euro, stop world-wide collapse
etc. So, must have new international electronic currency
similar to euro to compete with euro.
2. What countries will be included at start--my guess is
US, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and?
3. POG then to be fixed at ??? my guess is 800 to
1200--enough to keep everyone happy, but far from true
value.

Long-term implications:
1. Eventual plan to combine governments, as with euro
2. POG still articificially low, manipulated.
3. Same old game, triple speed.

I would welcome criticism or alternative perspective, woops-- I mean different fairytale.

A very productive walk!.....why not another virtual curriency like the EURO....? keep everbody in a state of total confusion.....
If FOA or ANOTHER would like to comment as to "Will the Brits (LBMA) rescue the EURO ?

If gold goes to $1000 ,then the Euro would have reserves backed with 45-50% gold instead of 15%....right...?

Re: CoBra(too) (5/6/99; 16:29:23MDT - Msg ID:5667)
I'm embarssed to admit that I understand about as much of your post noted above as I do Mr G's talks. Could you please decrypt your post for me this one time? Richard

If one were to make inquiry into a short list of people who are generally viewed to be important and respected figures in U.S. history, what names might be expected to make the list of popular opinion?

I believe time shall reveal this line of thought to be related to gold, but I must watch it unfold.
got suggestions?

Sorry buddy, I don't mean to rain on your parade. But this is war you know. The shorts are not going to go away quietly. They would love to have the line for gold all weekend long be "In the metals.... Gold was off $3 Friday...."

If we manage to close above 290 tomorrow, I'll be surprised. If gold goes up another couple of bucks, well, then maybe the tide IS changing....

GF

I was just about to write a post and send out an APB!!

Where have you been???

How short is this list?

GF

And where have you been today? I hope your not writing a book to try and answer my question from last night.

Oh, BTW, did you cast your lot for the Hall of Record? You didn't seem to clearly state that you were in favor. We still need 5 (I think) more votes!

GF

June Gold unchanged at $290.70

GF

I have been quite well, and have enjoyed the many good thoughts to be found here, though could not find the time to contrubute words of my own. Aristotle expects "the workings of life" from me. Perhaps he'll let me slide? If not, I offer "calories" by way of an answer. Further, if it is understood that gold is the only true money for civilization having entered "civilized" times, all else shall fall into place given the time for thought to connect the pieces. These connecting threads could be called the "details" of life, and are important to be sure. If you are falling from the sky, calories and gold will not save you, but the parachute will! Yet how easily these connecting threads become entangled and are revealed as useless without the working pieces of harness and chute, as true for calories and gold. I shall leave the further exploration to our valued friend.

Goldfly, you asked--How short is this list? As I count your contribution with all others thus far, it would sadly seem to stand at zero. Perhaps I could start the list of suggestions with with a contribution-- one Thomas Jefferson.

got others?

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/Bet you thought I was going to skip out on you...?...first,may I extend my handshake to you?...better yet come on the front porch and we will have a rocking chair race while we discuss this thought...ok?
"maybe 20 years in the future the US dollar..." you, my friend would have to be called an optimist....I think-um that the US dollar in 20 years will be the same place that the mark was in 20 years later....stuffed in bureau drawers in the attic!!...father-in-law told that story when he was in WWII in Germany.....drawers and drawers FULL...! worthless...
True.... the social and economic turmoil would be awful to say the least....at that time the politicians would try "something"...they only have three choices; 1) pay off the entire debt ($22,500 per citizen....20.5 K iou's and 2K FRN )...in order to do this the taxpayers would have to cough up a chunk of change...volunteers anyone...? the politicians got us in this mess...don't think they are bright enough to get us out of it
2)renig on the debt...tell everbody the nation is sorry,but can't pay!
3)play the "try to fake em out" by issuing some sort of new "hybrid" type of debt or security.....ie..AG's 5 yr. "gold backed" loan .....the ole' beat you out of your money later than sooner....some suckers will buy that ...eh?
Forgot...#4, the tried and proven new world way...start running the printing presses FASTER!!
The greenback is caught "between a rock and a hard spot"....a golden rock perhaps..?

The markets always force the government to devalue...never the other way around...otherwise why devalue?

If we can't pay off a hunk of our national debt in the "good times"....how do we think we will pay off in the "hard times"....and hard times ALWAYS follow good times....in the last 8 yrs. or so our debt went from $3.5 trillion to $5.6 trillion....folks, THAT is a lotta money!!

So what is the fate of our bogus $....#1 ?, #2 ?,#3 ?...or good ole' #4.....the smell of fresh ink...ahhhh

Arisotle, my friend...forgot to tell you not to rock over the dog's tail....

Was anyone watching Greenspan this morning on CNBC? After stating that 'some disruptions were inevitable', CNBC cut away to their talking heads to reassure that all is well. Yourdon's forum had an interesting discussion of this new 'phenomenon' and I've clipped without permission someone's comments.

'Blue, There is no doubt that they cut away. However, I don't attach much to that that
hasn't been fully discussed many times on this forum.

To me, the significant thing is that Greenspan unequivocally said that some disruptions
are inevitable. Like de Jager, Greenspan offered no concrete examples of industries
achievement of compliance. He simply said billions of dollars have been spent.
Hauntingly similar to de Jager's illogical line of reassurance.

Frankly, he waffled on the money in the bank issue. He clearly said that keeping your
money in the bank would be "safest". He explained that if you took it out it would be
subject to being stolen.

Safest does not mean safe. If you or I said it, it might. Greenspan chooses his words
the way Monet chose colors. Carefully.

Greenspan today was a scary as I've heard. I presume that the cut away by CNBC
simply cut out more talk minimizing the perception of risk. So no harm done.

In my opinion, Greenspan is still sounding the alarm.'

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 06, 1999.

I think this guy is right. Greenspan understands the y2k problem and has to be sweatin' it. I have a newfound respect for old Al. I also think he is still sounding the alarm.

ET

Just my thoughts, of late, this evening. . . . After reading many a thought and idea for several months . . . . It seems to me that I may be living in the Golden Age Of GOLD. Gold has been down to nineteen year low(s) and is poised for release in the very near future. Prices today, most likely, will not be seen for at least another twenty years (if ever). What a time to be living. What a time to be aware of what is really happing in the financial world. What a great place to be, a table of round where ideas and thoughts are exchanged freely by many a gifted knight and lady. Enjoy this Golden Age with me, will you!

Well how about:

George Washington
Ben Franklin
Sam Adams (Say, are these names familiar for some other reason?)
Abe Lincoln
Alvin York (Oops, out of the money on that one....)

Ok, so far all these people either got us into, through, or helped us win, a war. That can't be what you're driving at though...

How about someone more of a thinker?

Thomas Edison

You may wish you had given some parameters here....

Daniel Boone
Lewis and Clark

Let's see.... Risk takers? Innovators? Adventurers? People who carried REAL money? No? What then?

Got A's? (In history?)

GF

I hope that I have not unduly influenced you with my suggestion of Thomas Jefferson, but I thought he would surely find the way onto the popular lists. If this did not color your thinking, then the larger fraction on your list could be generalized as American revolutionaries, or maybe Founding Fathers is the preferred term?
This confirms my own suspicion. We might easily add the authors of The Federalist papers James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay to build popular support for the draft Constitution. Other names could be cited for their role in this important time.

If we are agreed that these men as a class would make the consensus list of important and respected figures in U.S. history, my next question is--Is their position in public opinion merited, or a product of propaganda? I don't believe this to be a "trick" question.

got golden opinions?

Looking into my Crystal Ball and seeing where you are going with this --- I truly feel that the founding fathers did the best job of creating checks and balances to allow the most flexibility and freedoms that were possible. To have done this in such a short timeframe with need for so much give and take type negotions and have the resultant effort last for over 200 years is like the greatest thing mankind has yet accomplished ! I would also like to add Henry Ford to the list as his thoughts allowed the industry production methods to be revelutionized and generated the concepts of mass production which is the basis of increasing the welfare and wealth of humanity. OK A3, your turn !
<;-)

If I may take liberty to summarize your words..."I truly feel that the founding fathers did the best job ... checks and balances ... most flexibility and freedoms ... possible. To have done this in such a short timeframe ... and have the resultant effort last for over 200 years is like the greatest thing mankind has yet accomplished ! " I will take this to mean a vote for the position that respect is due these gentlemen on the merits of their actions. This also confirms my suspicion.

While it is difficult to bracket a period in which the events within may be examined with independence from the events without, I might suggest 1764 - 1788 (from Sugar and Stamp Acts to majority ratification of the draft Constitution). Twenty-five years is indeed a brief time for these few men to bring about such a bold change to the world, is it not? The personal perspective of time and geography may color the opinion, but we would expect the general opinion to hold this as a positve development for the world. A product of truth or propaganda? Let us let others weigh in on this before we take these thoughts further.

Shall we now divert or attention to the exciting news of the day? Perhaps you might like to follow my lead in gathering together your pennies for the smart move...as the British Treasury is even now preparing to auction more than half their 715 tonnes gold in a restructuring of reserves to better fit with their EMU neighbors. A following of the Swiss lead, perhaps? Indeed. As soon as July the first of regular auctions will begin. Can you bid on 400 ounce bars? At that size, they will not sell cheap even at today's prices, but I assure you, they will not sell at today's prices! Let us use the "trader's confusion" to acquire the smaller gold crumbs at TODAY'S prices. In time, it will not matter that the gold you hold is not in the form of 400 ounce bars of London Good Delivery!

got grand plans?

Now $286.50.

I watched AG's speech on CSPAN. No cutaways there. Body language and reading between lines is how to listen to AG. At the end of his formal presentation, he alluded to LTCM, I believe. He talked about OJT (on the job training)and how policy makers were learning as they were going in this world economy. He talked about "nobody expected" the speed or extent of the international Russian default although he called it something else. He talked about the fragility of the International monetary system in terms of he sees recovery but it is largely dependent upon Europe, Japan, and most especially the US. He alluded to US Equities and how they support the consumer and spending today. He discussed labor as a key to low inflation. First all questions asked of Mr. G. were written and gone through by the moderator. He mentioned dollarization and Euroization but said it was called dollarization because it was easier to say it. He referred to dollarization as the observation that broadly based economic systems seemed to weather the winds of change better than single-country currencies. Eventhough he couldn't support it then with figures he felt it to be true. He used the example of Euro countries preparing for the introduction of the Euro and how well they seemed to do in changin over from a single-nations currency to a more broadly-based multi-country currency. He said he would never recommend a one-currency or world currency. He said competition was healthy. So dollarization, Euroization, Yenization were trends to absorb economic change better.



When the Y2K question was asked, he said he had written programs and because of computers then one reduced code to as few lines of code possible. He admitted it was a mistake to build on code that should have only lasted two years, not thirty. He said that the true measure of cost was in the amount of money that has gone into fixing Y2K problems. He said that even if one line of code in a thousand didn't work, the program wouldn't work and in the same sentence said that he wasn't worried about the US (as much). He alluded that other countries banks weren't ready perhaps. He did say there would be disruptions but that it wouldn't be from the code not working so much but from the perception of people reacting to Y2K. He said the safest place for peoples' money is in the bank. He was most charming but I thought that he had two actual brain pauses where he wasn't sure how to proceed during that question. I remember thinking about how the speech I had posted on Y2K and what he said were similar: it isn't the event but the perception of the event.

I hope that was a joke, btw, about UK selling 700 plus tons of gold. I guess I will find out as I spend a few minutes browsing around the net. Not funny but then it fits the pattern of holding gold back by negative news as it tries to go over 300. Manipulation of the highest order I would say but perhaps it is called something different when countries do it versus companies or people.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990506.htmThe comment about UK selling gold was NOT something AG said. I was referring to Aragorn's comments. Also, AG didn't mention LTCM but I believe he alluded to it. Here is what he said, you tell me...."...The remarkable American economy, whose roots are still not conclusively known, and the Asian crises that caught us by surprise, among other humbling experiences, have made policymakers particularly sensitive to how fast the world can shift beneath our feet...." LTCM=humbling experience. Now that is reading between the lines. But so you too can read between the lines I have posted the URL. Must reading, AG's speech. Says a lot, in ways we have grown used to having had it said.

UK Treasury to sell 415 tonnes of gold over medium term

LONDON ( AFX ) - The UK Treasury said it is to sell 415 tonnes of gold in the medium term, reducing its gold holdings contained within the official reserve to around 300 tonnes from the present level of 715 tonnes.

It intends to sell 125 tonnes of gold, 3 pct of total reserves, during 1999/2000, with the Bank of England conducting five auctions on the Treasury's behalf. It said auctions are to be held every other month starting on July 6.

The Treasury envisages selling similar quantities of gold in subsequent financial years.

The Treasury said its decision to reduce the proportion of its reserve holdings held in gold was taken in order to achieve "a better balance in the portfolio by increasing the proportion held in currency".

It said the proceeds from the gold sales will be invested in foreign currency assets, with reserves maintained at present levels.

A Treasury spokesman said that, following the sales, the UK's holdings of gold would be consistent with entry into EMU, noting that had the UK entered EMU in the first wave it would have needed to have deposited 140 tonnes with the European Central Bank.

-end-

Collusion pure and simple. Must have been getting close to hittig some stops, I see.

June gold now...$285.40.

Forget pulling out the prediction, give it a few more weeks. Although, I smell a good chess game in progress.

More, Auction. Now that is different as it conotes anyone can buy. Yeah, like I can buy a 400 oz gold bar. How 'bout 2lbs please. Can you slice it off the back end. Thanks.

Before everybody becomes negative on todays UK statement, take a good look at the facts.
We have heard that some headge funds are short up to 1000 tons of gold..with the report
of sales by the UK of 300 tons, dosn't help all that much except to push the pog down at
a time when gold was just starting to rise. The shorts will be in the market today trying to
aquire all they can get from sellers that are dumping on the news..My feeling is that the
shorts are going have a dificult time because the whole world now will be aware of the
manipulation taking place..Anybody selling today, on this news, may find it hard to replace
their position when the path of least resistance is UP...

from BBC News...

Britain is to sell off a chunk of its gold reserves because what was once one of the world's most precious commodities is losing its value.
The UK is selling around 400 tonnes of gold, 3% of its stock, as it 'restructures' its reserves.

The gold price slumped on Friday, as the market reacted to the news, falling by $3 to $285.85/$286.25 a troy ounce.

Gold was once one of the most valuable assets in the world but as more and more of the shiny metal swills around its value drops.

Gold's falling standard



How low will gold prices go?
Critically, for banks it now gives relatively poor returns and several have been selling off their reserves, including the Australians, Belgians, Dutch and even the Swiss.

The significance of Switzerland is that its 2,600 tonnes of gold are the third-biggest reserve of holdings in the world, after the US and the eurozone area.

Over the last 20 years bonds and shares have given better returns and many banks and finance institutions are now replacing gold with better yielding investments.

The Swiss reckon the cost of lost interest in holding gold rather than US Treasury bonds is equivalent to around $400 a year per household.

Tarnished reputation

Over recent decades gold has been a poor investment.

It has failed to keep pace with inflation, has underperformed shares and bonds and has been expensive to store.

Banks, like everyone else, are under pressure to improve the returns on their reserves.

The European Central Bank has decided to hold only 15% of its reserves in gold, well below the 30% average of most of the countries in the eurozone.

Gold prices in London prices fell by more than $3 as the market digested news of the UK Treasury's move to reduce its reserves of 715 tonnes.

Gold prices fell to $285.85/$286.25 a troy ounce from $288.85/$289.25, which compared with Thursday's close in New York of $289.10/$289.60.




Gold for June is $284.30, but appears to be bottoming and may now go up. Strength of this up leg will be telling in NY. And NY is the big question, yipes.

Not to worry. Make that 3lbs please (clubmembers only)

May 7, 1999
Dow Jones Newswires
U.K. Treasury To Sell 125 Tons Of Gold This Financial Year
Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON -- The U.K. Treasury said Friday it plans to sell 125 tons of gold, or 3% of its total reserves, during the current financial year to March 2000. Over the medium term, the Treasury plans to reduce its gold holdings to around 300 tons from 715 tons now. The Treasury said the Bank of England will hold five auctions in this financial year every other month beginning in July. It will replace the gold it sells from its reserves with foreign currency assets.
( Corrected 0835GMT )
A Treasury spokesman said the planned gold sales will be "measured and phased." The government's decision, he said, is based on its own view of the right balance for its reserves.
He said, however, that the U.K. move does follow similar decisions by other governments around the world.

The spokesman said the European Central Bank has a lower proportion of gold in its reserves, although he added that the British sale is not related to a possible decision to take the sterling into economic and monetary union.

If the U.K. did join the single currency, it would have to deposit some 140 tons of gold with the ECB, the spokesman said.

Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted
bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England.

The U.K.'s reserves currently total some $37 billion, including $6.5 billion in gold. But the government's foreign currency liabilities total $22 billion, so gold reserves therefore make up almost half the unhedged or "net" reserves, the Treasury said.

The initial 125 tons to be sold compares with annual mining output of around 2,500 tons, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services.

World holdings of gold total around 100,000 tons, according to the International Monetary Fund, with around 60,000 tons of this amount held in private hands.

One metric ton of gold equals just over 32,150 troy ounces. Thus, 125 tons is around four million ounces. Midmorning in London, spot gold was trading at $284.00, down from $289.65 per troy ounce at the close Thursday.

How come the article which was mentioned yesterday by JA in post 5644 (http://www.the-news.net) says that Tony Blair will attend the Bilderberger meeting?

Blair has been there previously.

Seems he is fascist, like(s) Clinton

Scary.

What ever Prime Minister Blair is, he has been well compensated for it. He presently has a C$1,000,000,000 "cottage" under construction in Cranbrook, British(imagine that) Columbia.

No49

It might be helpful to share my brief answer to that question. The Round Table can see this view through enlightened eyes, while the words of traders you read in news reports are of no insight, for their understanding of gold is only from 9:00 to 5:00, so to speak.

Take comfort in this, and take this for a sign: this gold will move under special arrangements. Ask yourself, with your keen knowledge of gold--Why do they sell under auction when there already exists efficient and worldwide around-the-clock markets for the trading of gold?

Ask this good question also--Does one generally make *special* arrangements to ensure the worst possible outcome?

Stride with confidence into this "new world". Two hundred years ago show us that "new arrangements" are not always a bad thing, arranged by those with sinister intents.

got peace?

The wiggle occurred on the 9-th day as indicated
in the msg I posted last Friday.

The XAU chart appears to show a GAP as a result
of yesterdays action, now is that a break-away Gap
or is it an Exhaustion Gap.

I expect all gold related stocks to lose about 9%
today as a result of the drop in the London FIX.

Why do THEY call it the FIX ???????

Well anyway The FIX is in !!!!!!????????

And it would appear to me that the people from
Goldman-Sachs, that have recently received a few
Billion US$ are going to be allowed to trade it in
on the Gold delivered directly from the population
of the UK, via LBMA ( Rothschilds ).

Now, I think I read yesterday in the Gilded opinion
that the OLD world bankers will always choose the
GOLD.
Well I think it is more than that, I think they will
steal ALL of the gold.
Also, as I have said before the US market(stock)
will be HELD up until ALL the players that THEY
want OUT have the time to convert to GOLD, at
nice low prices, on the way out.
Then the US markets will be allowed to tank.

It is cheap, I bought some more yesterday,
I will not sell it even if it goes to $US 10.00

I found this on a stock investment Board. There's a lot of anger out there:

The absolute bottom line is this: How can one continue to hold gold stocks with this degree of manipulation. I started investing to "make some money", not to make a statement or be part of a struggle to save the yellow metal. It's quite clear the CB's have sufficient reserves to keep gold under wraps for quite some time. Unless the governments can be made to back off, gold is just a loser for the foreseeable future. I'm just so incensed I can barely write this down. These anti-gold as*hol*s have literally f*c*ed my life to a great degree, with their antics. xxx could be a great stock if gold were allowed to move. No one can doubt now there is a war against gold. Investors in gold shares are now against the Western governments. You know, countries have gone to war, and people have overthrown governments and killed their leaders for less hostile actions than those which have been directed against gold investors lately. It's outrageous, it's immoral and it cries out to Heaven for retribution.

Excuse me if I sound a little nuts, but I'm thoroughly wild right now. I'm ready to puke, learning this kind of nonsense first thing in the morning.

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990507/britain_ba_1.htmlHaving worked there since college, maybe selling the gold took the last bit of fun out of his job? Naaaaaaah.

ALL:
A quick post, then I must go.
The decision by the UK Treasury to sell gold, points strongly towards the severe political pressures upon the IMF / Dollar Reserve factions! The "dollar reserve system" is truly in trouble. With the IMF gold sales in doubt, or delayed. And the EURO / BIS factions blocking any new gold. New gold cannot be found to maintain the backing of collateral for existing paper shorts and the massive liquidity they provide. The UK is directly in the middle of this as the LBMA would all but "disappear" if world dollar liquidity were to shrink from a higher gold price!

Notice what the Bank Of England said: "It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England." Truly, the IMF / Dollar faction alliance is
failing, with each now about to support it's own entities! The BOE will most definitely back the LBMA first and foremost with fresh collateral!

The beginning of this new bull market in gold will be mired with "extreme" volatility! We never expected anything different. With the ending of the largest circulating reserve currency system about to ensue, nothing less than an investment in "actual gold bullion" will work. For some time, Another (and myself) have pointed out that no one will be able to play this change using any form of leverage!!! Major gold buyers and investors know this, especially oil producers and holders of "paper gold backed by the Euro CBs"! . Today's action, will be nothing compared to the swings to come, as these moves will be "political" attacks of a timed nature. There purpose is "NOT" to destroy private "paper gold" investors", rather "to respond to an ongoing currency crisis"!

This is perhaps the "Third" reason for not holding gold stocks (see my first two in FOA (5/1/99; 21:04:42MDT - Msg ID:5465)). Each 20% gain in the XAU will be given back with the swings in the physical market. Again, during a currency crisis, hold currency, but, in a gold currency crisis, hold gold!
I will have much more on this dynamic market in a day or so! FOA

Or should I say 'mourning'? Tough business, waking up to this! I'm gonna have to take some time to absorb it all, but this is my initial perspective...Thank God I'm hanging my hat on the metal and not on mining stocks. This is the kinda thing that could drive a company into the ground, and I feel for the share holders (yeah, yeah, ME too, but I've mentally written off my shares as tuition in the school of hard knocks.)
Further, although thoughts of manipulation fill the air, this isn't just idle talk to spook the market, these boys came right out WHAMMO! with an honest to God sale. And in an auction format at that! We all know what happened during the last round of official auctions...
"POW! To the moon, Alice!" (in my best Ralph Cramden impersonation)

MARKET ANALYSIS (5/7/99): The gold market came under attack from the British last
night in a surprise pre-dawn announcement(U.S. time) that it intended to sell off 415 tons
of gold "in the medium term" -- over half of its 715 ton reserve. The gold is scheduled to be
sold at auction by the Bank of England. The first tranche will total 125 tons to be sold over
a ten-twelve month period beginning July 6. We have reported on the odd behavior of the
British toward gold on several occasions in this report over the past few months. That odd
behavior came to a head last night.

The British auctions come after at least two years of constant pressure from various bullion
banks operating primarily in London on the central banks of continental Europe and the
third world to sell their gold. When the European Union and European Central Bank some
six or more months ago closed the door to gold sales, the British Chancellor of the
Exchequer, Gordon Brown, began an extraordinary and vigorous campaign to persuade the
International Monetary Fund to sell a portion of its gold holdings. He enlisted the public
support of both the Canadian and U.S. administrations though stiff opposition surfaced in
the U.S. Congress. When those efforts were stymied by other G-7 members at the recent
meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, the British resorted to selling
their own reserves per the announcement last night.

This comes at a strange time with gold languishing below $300. We have said time and
again that nations do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to.
Beyond concerns that should be raised in the British parliament, one wonders what is really
behind this sale. Clearly their stated intention to change the configuration of their reserves is
not the real reason. If that were the case, they would have waited for a more propitious time
-- not when the market was trying to go over the key $300 figure. Why kill a rally. Let the
rally gather steam and then sell. There is another, more telling, aspect to this sale that we do
not know about though I am sure various gold analysts will begin offering opinions as early
as this morning.

There have been published rumors that the British owe the Russians a large amount of gold
on metal being stored at the Bank of England from the days of the Romanovs -- gold the
Russians have publicly proclaimed that they want back. There could also be concerns that
gold loans have gone sour and British financial concerns are on the hook. Then there's the
gold carry trade -- a lending scheme that could go suddenly sour if the metal were to start
moving in a northerly direction. Perhaps a British bank(s) is involved in a counter-party
guarantee that must be paid. This is all speculation but clearly this announcement has more
to do with driving the price down for some reason that has not surfaced....yet.

Though the market has already sold off sharply, I wonder if this downside will hold in
view of the growing inflationary bias in the world economy, problems in the U.S.
Treasuries' market and the fact that there are so many unanswered questions surrounding
this auction/sale. As Placer Dome CEO John Willson said this morning gold prices today
are intimately tied to the US dollar and would get a boost if the dollar were to slip from
today's highs on signs of possible weakness in the US' roaring economy. The British
pound is taking a major hit this morning and my guess is that traders already understand
that something odd is going on in the United Kingdom that bears careful watching. The
pound is not the first currency to suffer post-gold-sale-announcement traumatic syndrome.

Beyond the political ramifications of these sales, twelve tons of gold per month is not going
to break this market. If anything the buyers will line up to take advantage of the
opportunity. Nor are concerns about other countries sales well grounded, the few that are in
a position to sell do not have enough gold to cause any major problems and it appears at the
outset that the British decided on these sales because they couldn't obtain the gold needed
from other sources.

All of this will be carefully weighed in the balance.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

I posted my report before reading your post. I wondered when I first got the news if this was to be a "public" or "private" auction. The fact that it will be kept "private" goes a long ways toward offering a good "reason" for these sales. I wonder how bad their exposure really is. (???) There is the hint of desperation in this British gold auction. Anybody letting gold go in this gambit is a fool! That's exactly what they want.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/p1.htmlCurrencies and gold...up, down, and all around.

Good Day MIchael,
Nice report about today's market. Bullion is back to where I started adding to my position from a week or so ago. As stated, I will be buying over several weeks. This "suprise" is welcome and buying by many physical entities is ongoing! Gold may, indeed rebound before the close. We will watch this crisis develope! FOA

Roland Leuschel is the German honorary director of Belgium's Bank Brussels Lambert (BBL) (which belongs to Belgium's top three banks - I should write "belonged" because the top three has, since Leuschel retired, merged with other (foreign) banks). He has a widely-read monthly column in Belgium's De Financieel Economische Tijd newspaper.

The last time he mentioned gold was on November 21, 1998. After having explained that banks were short on gold and were therefore issuing negative messages as to the prospects of gold, the column advised its readers to have "some" (a little/een beetje) gold in their portfolio.

On April 30, 1999, Leuschel advised his readers to have 2 or 3 percent of gold in portfolio. He did however not explain why.

I am starting to understand: I said he's "honorary" director of the BBL. Where did he retire? In Portugal, Sir. And what was again the country where the Bilderberger meeting was planned?

The IVH

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/qo.htmlThis report is both remarkable, and quite laughable all at once. The "objective" reporter somehow manages to discuss each and every point that comprises the gold shorters' litany.

The last link provided is to a gold sale story, but not the one described in the commentary. It appears its link has been changed or the story pulled for being too negative? I'll keep searching for the original version.

The present age of leaders having orchestration from the powers that placed them in the power positions, and not providing the leadership for the good of the people and the country which they lead, is the uttmost in the use of the art of propaganda. The timing of your question is PERFECT! As the announcement of the sale to a few select groups of the Brittish CB Gold reserves, is propaganda of the worst nature. Thanks to FOA for shinning the light of TRUTH on the sham and allowing the Goldhearts to take advantage of this manna from heaven. Cheap Gold is once again available! As one of the wise ones says, GET YOU SOME ! while the getting is good. Educate on Aragorn III.
<;-)

...have lastly been contrary indicators for some time now. Huge CB sales at the fixed $35/oz during the latest gold standard, was followed, same as the 70's auctions (at about $200/oz)by huge price appreciation of the POG. Anyway, I agree totally with all posters commenting on todays, maybe last bargain price in POG before a thundering upcycle sets in.
The global casino capitalism is in dire straights and desperately clutching at any straw to keep the paper bubble from bursting. The stress of the system becomes palpable and the guardians are rapidly running out of allies, where past favors can be called upon. While the IMF and the Swiss CB, being major holders of gold, the BoE gold hoard is just a drop in the bucket! Smells like last bullet drama and a panicky move to undermine sentiment as the battle is finally lost.

@ SteveH... Sorry for being cryptic - Co stands for Coral Gold, a Cdn. Junior (CLH.VSE)appreciating from C$0.80 to 1.21 in past two days. The co has been up to 6,40 (96) due to potential takeover. It has about 2 million drill indicated ounces resource, some proven reserve to date and now due to a recent option agreement with PDG, a 30% free carried interest to production on its property next to Cortez (Pipeline) in Nevada. Drilling is ongoing and results should be stated today or early next week. Sorry again,try to think in your lingo, but still my typing stays way behind and is loosing some.

This (European) morning, Bill Murphy's (Cafe, GATA) gold commentary has forewarned me that something may hit the gold markets again. Quote:" We know "the quad" are all lining up to try and stifle a decent gold move to the upside, one more time. Deutsche Bank, Chase, UBS and GS were all selling... Especially aggressive DB...We got word late (yesterday)afternoon that their (DB) bullion desk is calling their clients saying the gold market is stopping at $290.

Michael....Thanks for your market report this morning which is as illuminating as it is timely. Obviously, yesterday's break above 6.75% resistance, by the U.S. long bond, threatened a short covering panic in the gold market and forced the BOE's hand. Your report raises revealing questions:

1.Why would Britain have pre-emptively softened gold prices by calling for IMF sales so soon before their own announcement? Why not, indeed, unless, as you say, "they do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to."
2.And why show their hand by announcing sales years into the future, unless the purpose is to encourage others to sell, thereby maximizing the very market reaction they are seeking?

Fortunately, for us bugs, the bond market, so far at least, is not taking the bait. If yields do not swoon in the wake of the BOE announcement (and this morning's favorable U.S. wage report, by the way), the pressure should be on the carry traders as never before. We shall see.

I understand the investment gold universe to be approximately 100,000 tonnes in size. Perhaps another 10,000 tonnes are short. BOE is TALKING of selling 125 tonnes this year, more later. This may be enough to buy some time, but surely, no serious gold trader will see this as adequate to neutralize the forces of supply and demand in so large a market.

For numerous reasons, this move by the BOE should not be seen as "central bank" contagious. It does, however, get me to wondering. What if the U.S. were to make a similar announcement? Any thoughts?

The traders I know are not taking the BOE numbers seriously. They are looking to see, however, if any of the small central banks will take the bait. As I said, this has the scent of desperation. Strong buying being reported at the market-maker level today. Rumors of the U.S. Mint raising premiums in response to the Canadian move. Fairly strong buying at CPM/USAGOLD. Watching to see if hedge funds are going to pile on British announcement. So far they're on the sidelines. George Milling Stanley preparing industry response; may be on CNBC yet today. Anglo and Gold Fields -- both with British ownership -- strongly condemn BOE.

In regard to your post # 5673

I would have to nominate the framers of our constitution.

"The framers of our Constitution knew� history� they were trained and experienced in the Common Law. They remembered the Barons and King John at Runnymede. They were thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle that the true sovereignty rested in the people."

J. Reuben Clark, Jr.

I tend to believe as declared by others the founders of the American Republic to be "the best spirits the God of heaven could find on the face of the earth. They were great and noble spirits.


In my mind Gold, Sovereignty and freedom are all related

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_excomm/19990507_xex_hearts_to_he.shtmlI thought he makes some good points.

If the number of zero's in your post concerning Blair is correct, maybe the Bank of England is just selling gold to raise cash to pay their prime minister?

The yield barrier broken by the long bond yesterday was 5.75% (not 6.75%).

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/1i.htmlGive 'em hell, boys!

Alert: Goldman Sachs Says Cuts Gold Sector to Market Underweight From Market Weight
Alert: Goldman Cuts Barrick , Newmont to Market Perform From Outperform
Alert: Goldman Cuts Placer, Ashanti , Normandy to Market Perform From Outperform
Alert: Goldman Cuts Homestake , Lihir, Tvx to Underperform From Perform

That's what happens when you're in a big hurry to get back to see what the charts are are disclosing. There are, indeed, about three too many "0"'s in that figure. None the less, and even in Canadian bucks, one million smackers amounts to pretty fancy digs in these parts!!
I know the contractor, and he's ecstatic, to say the least!!
I'll try to do a little better job of proof reading next time I post.


No49

I have been following the discussions posted on this website for a couple of months now, and I would like to thank you all for your thought provoking writings.

The suspicous pattern of a rising(!!!!) gold price followed by announcements of gold sales from official sources seems to be coming to a head with last night's announcement from the Bank of England.

When I read the news and then read all the posts here and at Kitco, I was reminded of an article I read in late 1997 or early 1998, possibly in the London Times or Sunday Times. I think the main gist of the article was that since the Bank of England had leased out large quantities of gold, and that since a significant portion of this gold had subsequently been sold to the ordinary public in the form of jewellery and maybe coinage (can one mint leased gold into coins? I guess one can if the mint doesn't know it is buying leased gold), the gold could never come back to the Bank of England. - Town Crier, can you assist here? I searched the net for quite some time today, but to no avail.

If things come to the situation where the BOE wants the gold back for whatever reason where would it get it from? Could this be one of the reasons why the British have been trying so hard to get some gold sales going?

And eventually, since the BOE could not purchase enough gold, and the people the BOE leased the gold to cannot replace the gold, the BOE then says to them, well, ok, then I guess you bought it!

And the BOE auctions them the gold. But what they don't tell you is that they actually delivered it a long, long time ago!

I have just taken the third order today from a gold buyer who says he is buying gold as a protest to the announcement of the Bank of England. I wonder how much of this is going on nationally as the day progresses? This client (and lurker at this site) thought I should spread the word, so I post this at his request.

New York-May 7-FWN--Right when gold had pulled itself
up off the mat after a recent knockdown by a Swiss
referendum and talk of International Monetary Fund (IMF)
sales, the yellow metal was floored again today. This time
the blow came from the United Kingdom.
Officials with the U.K. Treasury triggered a massive
sell-off in gold futures overnight when they announced plans
to sell more than half of their gold reserves.

June gold futures had fallen as far as $281.60 late
last month, after comments from a number of global finance
leaders calling for up to 10 million ounces of IMF gold to
be sold to provide debt relief to poor countries, and in the
aftermath of a Swiss referendum that was a step forward in
the government's plan to sell some of its reserves.
But in the last couple of weeks, gold had been
rallying, with the June futures getting as high as $291.20
on Thursday. The cash market was poised to break through the
$290 area, and many suspected this might trigger a further
short-covering rally, related Dave Meger, metals analyst
with Alaron Trading.

But then early today, the UK Treasury today announced plans to
restructure its reserve holdings, which will involve
reducing its gold holdings to 300 tonnes from 715 over themedium term.
The first stage will be the sale of 125 tonnes of gold
during 1999/2000, 3% of total reserves, in 5 separate
auctions conducted by the Bank of England. The first auction
will be held Jly 6, and the others are expected to be held
every other calendar month.

The Treasury said the restructuring was designed to
achieve a better balance in the reserves portfolio by
increasing the proportion held in currency assets. The
proceeds from the sales will be held in foreign currency
assets and retained in the reserves.
The UK currently holds 715 tonnes of gold in its
reserves, worth around US $6.5 billion.

A Treasury official said the restructuring would bring
the UK into line with the way other national governments
structured their reserves and would make it more consistent
with EMU member states. Each of the 5 auctions to be held this financial year
will be of around 25 tonnes. The gold will take the form of
London Good Delivery bars, each weighing about 400 fine troy
ounces and held at the Bank of England. To encourage the
widest possible interest the bank will consider bids for
a minimum of 400 ounces.

"Off of this, we saw significant--if that's a strong
enough word--breaks in the gold market," said Meger.
June gold gave back the $10 or so it had gained during
the last couple of weeks, bottoming out today at a low of
$280.30. The market did trim its losses some, finishing with
a decline of $7 at $283.70.
A key question for market participants now is the
future direction of the metal.

Meger pointed out that in addition to worries about
potential IMF and Swiss sales, there have been ongoing
Canadian sales, all of which have been factored into prices.
It appears there is a trend in which monetary authorities
are putting less emphasis on gold holdings.
"That is a scary idea for any type of bull in the
market, or producer, on the idea that if this is going to be
the case, you're going to be looking at more supply," said
Meger.
But if there is not more significant follow-through
selling in the next week to one and one-half weeks, said
Meger, the market may be able to right itself.

"We have been throwing bearish news at the market, it
seems, every other day. It has been handling this news quite
well. So if we can get through this one last punch, I thinkwe can do just fine."
Later, he added, "We had been pushing up close to that
$290 level in the cash market and were seemingly poised to
move through that level. I think the idea was if we could
punch through that, it appeared we were going to have the
potential to see a fair amount of short covering.
"We were so close, and then we had this news. So we're
right back where we started (a couple of weeks ago)."

Meger put support for June gold at today's $280.30 low,
then $277 to $278, then $275. Resistance was pegged at $287
to $288, then $290 and $293.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

Maybe the no good sassenachs are trying to teach the Scots a lesson for electing so many SNP members to their miniparliament and preventing red tony's party from getting a clear majority---sort of a slash and burn approach to the currency. Of course, that makes no sense, but nothing does in these MANIPULATED times of ours. Central bank gold sales are the fiscal equivalent of grinding the seed corn for flour--it's suicidal--unless, of course, one's goal is the emasculation of the nation state...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/5s.htmlTreasury spokesman allays fears. (check for an article Update soon at this link)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/5o.htmlMost IMM currency futures end lower, euro near day's low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/sector.htx?source=blq/yhooA tougher than usual day for digging (in the mines)

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744611.htmlFun reading for some of our Knights.

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.htmlPrime reading for all Knights assembled.

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 7--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $7, or 2.4%, at $283.70
per ounce after diving to a 1-month low of $280.30 this morning on the UK
Treasury's announcement that it plans to sell 415 tonnes of its 715 tonne gold
reserve. The news dented confidence in the gold market, pulling the plug on the
recent rally which had taken Jun to a 2-month high Thursday.
Gold fell on across-the-board selling, with spot prices gapping down in the
London market after the UK gold sale announcement. "People were overly short
coming in and as COMEX opened it sold off," said one trader, noting that gold
then managed to trim some of its losses throughout the session.

"I don't think its an underestimation to say the UK sales were a hammer blow
to confidence of the bullion market," said James Steel, analyst at Refco.
While the amount to be sold is less than some of the previous central bank
sales "what's important is the fact that it's coming from a G7 nation," Steel
explained. Traders and analysts said that the news had sparked fears other
countries, especially those in Europe, would follow suit. Against the backdrop
of International Monetary Fund sales the news is very bearish, agreed most.
Gold also saw little support from today's US payroll data, which allayed
fears of any surge in inflation amid a tight labor market, said economists.

Also adding to gold's general malaise were downgrades of the ratings of
major gold mining companies by Goldman Sachs and the overall slump in gold
equities which followed the UK gold sale announcement.

The Philex XAU index of gold equities was down 10.56, 12.8%, at 72.07 at
1800 ET and the AMEX Gold Bugs index (HUI) was down 9.67, 11,2%, at 76.77.
While some players were taking solace from the fact that Jun gold managed to
hold above the $280 support level, the voracity of the selloff was
"frightening," said one trader.
After the recent rally "we're back to where we started and expect to see it
probe lower next week," said another trader, noting that it could be oversold
and as a consequence, the Japanese session may open with some buying after the
weekend.

The UK Treasury said that the first stage in the sale of the full 415 tones
will be the sale of 125 tonnes of gold during 1999/2000, in 5 separate auctions
conducted by the Bank of England. The first auction will be held Jly 6, and the
others are expected to be held every other calendar month.
Some questioned the sanity behind the UK Treasury's move. "Why announce
before you're going to sell? How is that going to help your cause?" said one
trader.
"The moment that gold felt it could go somewhere, they come in and broadside
the whole market -- how could they be so lacking in finesse," he complained.
He said that gold had recently started to behave "more orderly" and was in
the midst of a short-covering rally.

Ian MacDonald, executive vice-president of MKS Finance (USA), said that
his "worst fears" have been realized. "I've felt for a long time that central
banks hate gold and it's ironic they make this announcement when gold was moving
up and Greenspan was mumbling about inflation fears," he said.
"Was this intentional timing to try and hold gold price down? You have to
raise questions here," he said. He noted that this latest sale has occurred
against a backdrop of increased central bank lending. "This has all put supply
into the market--what's going on here and who will be next?" he questioned.
He said that some market players are probably assuming that others in Europe
will follow suit.

"Central bankers hate gold--I haven't found one that's positive about gold.
They think it's a stale asset and paper is their king," he said.
Joe Rosta, analyst at CPM Group said that the UK Treasury disposals would be
over a period of years, so that the price effects should be modest.
However, he noted that some participants view the sales proposed by the UK,
IMF and Swiss National Bank as a precursor for additional increased gold sales.
"Our feeling is this is not a big deal, and it appears that is the feeling
enough market participants shared otherwise we would have expected prices to
drop further," Rosta noted.

Meanwhile, today's commitment of traders report from the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission showed that as of May 4, short positions held
by commercial players climbed 21,011 contracts to 79,119 contracts, while
non-commercial shorts fell 25,873 to 68,306 contracts.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $283.7, dn $7; RANGE: $290.9-280.3

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

Michael writes in today's gold report: "We have said time and again that nations do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to."

When he says "have to" it would seem he means: "Since there has been no discernable movement towards IMF sales, and since the limitations of Swiss cooperation have been fully aired, with the POG inching over $190, SOMEONE has to sell some gold or watch a cataclysm unfold in the financial system. Part of such a cataclysm would surely include the end of the LBMA (and a host of other gold shorts). With nowhere else to turn, the BOE (claiming to protect the system as much as bailing out their rich, soon-to-be-bankrupt, friends) has stepped up to the plate like real straight-shooters and announced (in the words of goldnbones (5/7/99; 13:16:12MDT - Msg ID:5719) "then I guess you bought it... But what they don't tell you is that they actually delivered it a long, long time ago!"

What a joke!

As Mozel pointed out earlier today (over at that other forum): "What kind of auction is it when they sell only to the proper counterparties (read LBMA and friends) and then only to the LOWEST bidder?"

It must be obvious to everyone by now. This is not a sale. It is the ANNOUNCEMENT of a sale (and they didn't even get the date right...because the sale has already taken place). Just another ruse to keep the game going a little longer! In my mind the question is: What really is the point to all their continuing effort? They know they are sitting on a keg of dynamite with the fuse burning. Every time they pull off one of these capers the fuse gets shorter (pun intended). Since the POG doesn't seem to go any lower than $180/oz there can be no exit from their short positions, just rollovers. What are they hoping for?

Maybe for flying saucers to land in time for the millenium celebration bringing a gift to humanity of 10,000 tons of gold to replace what has been squandered (sold short).

Yeah right!

Good to see you posting again, my friend.

Question: I don't understand the part quoting Mozel about the gold going to the "LOWEST" bidder. ?? Does that mean the gold will be sold for one pence? (I wish!) In my view this gold should be offered to the British citizenry under those terms. After all, it is their gold, not the LBMA's.

I did not find the post FOA was referring to where the BOE stated that this was a restricted sale either. Was the "lowest bidder" statement in that article also?

to think I was pleased at additional opportunities in $280's when they looked to be gone for good, and there you are speaking of $180 and $190. Wishful thinking, or savvy shopping, my friend? I do know your answer, and can picture the smile.

JA--thank you for your additional thoughts in our developing discussion. I find we are much in agreement, and am pleased. This has become quite a long day, however, and I must promise to pick this up after consultations with the sandman.

Such a day...does one dare look a gift horse in the mouth? No. We ride!

got (more) gold?

from the Dow Jones Newswire
"Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted
bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England."

Am I missing something here? If I understand this correctly, a closed club where everybody knows each other is going to pay the lowest accepted bid at a private, closed auction? That's very nearly unbelievable. Why don't they just give it to them and save the cost of the auction? Is there any word if they are going to publish the prices realized?

I know the sandman calls, so answer if you feel like it. If not, we'll pick this up later.

Anybody else out there who would like to help me with this are welcome to let me know the score.

In the meantime, I call on the wizardrous one with the flowing white beard to chair and organize a special committee of the Table Round to organize our purchasing power and get an app in for LBMA membership.

The volume that is bid upon plays a role. Start with the high bid and subtract the desired bars from total to be auctioned. If bars remain, consider the next lower bid and subtract those number of desired bars from remaining total...and so on until the lowest bider does not get his order filled. They ALL pay that lowest price, and all gold is in new ownership. If several parties are competing for the entire lot, all gold goes to the highest bidder.

My friend in Scotland cannot participate in this. Perhaps I should tell him to call you, MK? Your gold shines as bright, does it not? I know that it does, as I have some from your famous treasury that is guarded over by these many good knights of the esteemed Round Table.
Good night for now!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/9t.htmlAnother oil refinery fire,this time in Houston Texas'story to follow.

On the sale of British Gold:
The people of Great Britian should be OUTRAGED!!!
What has historically happened when a country sells Gold?
Their paper money gets devalued in relation to all the other paper currencies,lets go down the recent list:
Belgium-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
Canada-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
Australia-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
And the list goes on.Why does this happen? Well, lets give the official definition of the floating exchange rate again:

Currencies strengthen or weaken based on a nation's reserves of hard currency and GOLD,its international trade balance, its rate of inflation and interest rates, and the general strength of its economy.

Lets take a wild guess as to why this may be happening:
As Stranger recently pointed out the British Pound dollar ratio is about 160 U.S.cents to the Pound.
The EURO dollar ratio is about 95 U.S. cents to the EURO.
Great Britain is joining a coalition of countries already using the EURO in a massive joining of European Stock Markets,date not announced yet.Soooo to bring the value of the British Pound down to the paper value of the EURO and the U.S. dollar what better way to devalue a nations currency than to sell the Gold that the gives the paper value in relation to other paper monies.What a scam to the people who use British Pounds............beesting

Gee. Sorry I missed your post, o vigilant one! Thank you again for your guarding these castle walls in the wee hours. My day would have been considerably different had I read that post.

Question, Steve: Do you think we should track the gold price from the low following the BOE announcment today -- June $280.30? Maybe list it as +/-BOE? Today's close would be BOE+3.40. Sort of a memorial?

Aragorn:

Thanks for having already understood and forgiven my typos replacing 2's with 1's.

Michael:

Here is Mozel's comment from this morning. Aragorn seems (as usual) to have insight to spare is on this subject, also. While I was looking for it he found the reference right here.

Date: Fri May 07 1999 11:07
mozel (@Some Auction @The Lowest Bidding "monetary institutions" get the gold.) ID#153110: Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England."

"Auctioned to the lowest bidder." Wow, that's Newspeak fer sure.

Re. UK gold sales: 125 is 3% of 4167 not 750
( in ounces 4.02 M oz is 3% of 133.96 M oz).

3% of 750 is 22.5 (3% of 24.11 M is 720,000)

One other note: My records show UK gold reserves
of only 18.1 M oz not, 24.1, but those numbers are
close enough not to change the effect on the market.

FOA/ANOTHER I think I am begining to understand what is going on. I am going to try and sum up what I think happened today, and would welcome any corrections to my thinking that you could provide.

1) Middle East Oil countries have been demanding Gold in payment for Oil all along through a backdoor means so far. (Saudi Arabia?) is the main one to be concered with. The U.S. has been able to barter for Oil from the Saudi's by providing them military aid and protection for years, but the Gold coffers have started getting low and they want the yellow stuff now. Other Western Oil suppliers are out of the picture because they have never demanded payment for oil with Gold. They all are paid with U.S. dollars and what ever local governments currency.

2) Hedge Funds have borrowed Gold from bullion banks at low interest rates to gamble in the stock market. The price of Gold over the last few years has been manipulated down to about the cost of production and they can't keep covering the short positions that they have put themselves into. Their loan contracts are about to expire and they are in need of replacing the Gold with interest, but are unable to.

3) The IMF Gold sales to support impoverished nations was all just a smoke screen. The real reason was that that was the only source of large amounts of Gold available for sale anywhere in the world. The U.S. has veto power over the sales of that Gold and it looks like the U.S. Congress will not endorse the sales.

4) Yesterday the price of Gold was about to hit some repurchase limit and it had to be stopped or we would have seen complete chaos in the stock market.

5) Today we get these Gold sales from the Bank of England announcement. The Bank of England is a major player in the hedge fund game and saw there was no way for Gold repayment by the funds. Therefore they decide to declare a sale when in essance these sales have happened a year or two ago. Now they claim this is for investments in other countries currencies (U.S., EURO, YEN). They are wanting the funds to give them the money that they sold the Gold for is what is going on today, right?

6) Gold is/was used by the U.S. government to calculate and show inflations rise and fall. By having Gold remain low and letting the hedge funds sell it on the market was one means to funnel the Gold to (Saudi Arabia?) and help pay for the oil and make it look like the U.S. economy was booming.

7) Greenspan is just a pawn in this game (A Gold lover at heart) and has been helping to warn American investor for the last year or so that they should start to pull out of the market. By allowing Gold to fall to such low rates he is providing the American "Induhviduals" (quoting the Members of Dogberts New Ruling Class term for non-members) a means to save their investments if they would only wake up.





Did I get anything right/wrong here? Please inform me. Info and corrective criticism wanted.
Also want to know why everyone thinks June will be the month that Gold will go up and how much do you think it will rise in one month?

P.S. Gold mines around the world should declare June a "Mining Holiday" and stop producing for one month to see what happens. Banks declare banking holidays why cant mining companies do the same. Gold is money, RIGHT?

The numbers in that report don't add up.
BOE said to sell 300 tons from 715 tons.
This is to be 3% of their total holdings? This is not even 30%. It is more like 42%.

Then the article says 125 tons will be sold in 5 auctions.
What happened to the other 175 tons?

125 tons does not equal 3% or 30%. It is 20%?

I'm confused!

OK --- Here is the story of the BoE Gold sale, in Hobbit language ! The BoE has 715 tonnes of Au. The BoE will "auction" to "qualified bidders" a total of 415 tonnes, over a few years, with 125 tonnes to be "sold" starting this "fiscal year". (call it 1999/2000) These "auctions" this year will number five, each of about 25 tonnes and will commence in July '99 and then everyother month (Sept. Nov. Jan. and March) The price of the "sale" will be determined as the lowest bid taking the last of the offering. (This is the toughest method of bidding ! You do not wish to bid high, but if you bed to low you get nothing !) After this 1999/2000 "auction" the BoE will have 290 tonnes of Au to "sell" in future "auctions". GOT IT ? ---
Comment to MK --- yes, indeed I caught the challange to start the effort to meet the requirements as a "qualified bidder", BUT YOU can see that this is ONLY a anti-Gold PR campaign that is another sham to generate additional time and perhaps allow the picking up of Gold from the scared and uneducated panicky Gold neophytes that sell into these rumors. The best way to benefit from this BoE "sale" is to exchange as many of those green pieces of paper having pictures of dead Presidents for the available Gold at the prices that will not be seen again until the next emergency scam is offered by those that are attempting to save themselves at the expense of honor, Country, and mankind.
MK --- My check is in the mail to USAGOLD.
<;-)

IMHO, Alan Greenspan is no pawn. He is at least castle or knight, if not the hand that moves the pieces for one team.

I see no one has yet commented on the latest "accidental" missile bombing, This Time the Chinese Embassy!! The Chinese have been supporting Belgrade's Position in the security council. Can't wait to see what 'Spin' our people put on this one. Heck, by Monday morning we might be having WW III !! That'll fix the short's wagon!!

As I've been following today's events, especially this incredible irrational construct of an alleged auction, sale, loan call bailout, nuttier then a fruit cake, attempted rape of the English peoples nest egg; I've been subliminally reminded, all day, of some movie scene from way back. Finally it clicked in. Have any of you ever scene the musical, Merat' Sade. There's this scene where he's sitting in this old style (bucket filled) bath tub, and all these other lunatics are singing and dancing around him. Total bloody insanity.

Well it's not over till the fat lady sings, (In this case the Auctioneer) "Going, going, gone"

THX-1138....3% of total RESERVES, which include foreign currency holdings as well as bullion.

Michael and others....Actually this auction is being done in a traditional "Dutch Auction" format. Ironically, with so much talk of tulip-bulb-mania lately, this is precisely how cut tulips have been sold in Holland for centuries. They are still sold, and quite effectively, in just this manner every Spring.

Since beginning my accumulation of gold mining stocks last year, I have been aware that past gold bull markets have featured very sudden precipitous drops, particularly early on. In fact, I propose that it is entirely NORMAL to lose half of what seems like a hard-earned gain in a single day. Anyone wishing to verify this can do so by checking a long term chart of the XAU. Remember, one and all, nobody BELIEVES in this market yet. Probably, no one will for months to come. This is what is so comical about today's panic. So far as anybody knows, BOE didn't sell an ounce, yet capitulation was rampant.

Trust me, there is no worse contingency facing the world economy today than still-lower commodity prices. For that reason, THEY MUST NOT AND WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN! Our bottom was made months ago. Even though we may have more weakness for a day or two, I would call everyone's attention to the $4/oz. recovery which occurred off of today's low. With the failure of U.S. bonds to rally, gold shorts were already in there covering.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_rockwell/19990507_xclro_violence_c.shtml... on Hayek

Am keeping a little file on evidence of the new scientific phenomena of spontanous combustion in oil refineries. Might make for some interesting research when gasoline shortages start.

Has anyone ever thought that these oil refinery fires were a little timely and suspicious? Could it be sabotage? Maybe some foreign spies from some government Clinton bombed is getting back at us by attacking our gas production? Well, time to start stocking up on food before the oil shortage hits and increases prices. If the MAPCO refinery in North Pole, Alaska suddenly catches fire then I may actually start believing my own theory.

Gold Forum





We gather at the forum to learn from one another by sharing knowledge,
exchanging ideas, thoughts and opinions. To illuminate and to be educated.
All are invited to read and post. Gentlemanly conduct will be the attire
of the day ... and all forms of precious metals investments the topic of
the hour.

Gold-Eagle or its Sponsor do not necessarily endorse any statements that
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As JUNE approaches, Bosnia war winding down
(chris)
May 08, 04:52

Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the
maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This interpretation would also support that the most powerful work in relative unison. There does not appear to be a major euro versus dollar split at the very top. They all work in unison for their own interests. The split is their interests versus everyone else's. By this I do not mean that serious damage will not be done to the US dollar, but that the damage is all part of the scheme that is umfolding.

test




















Gold Forum





We gather at the forum to learn from one another by sharing knowledge,
exchanging ideas, thoughts and opinions. To illuminate and to be educated.
All are invited to read and post. Gentlemanly conduct will be the attire
of the day ... and all forms of precious metals investments the topic of
the hour.

Gold-Eagle or its Sponsor do not necessarily endorse any statements that
are made, or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Reading is open to all, but posting requires one-time registration.


[ Add Message ] [ Register ]


Select Previous Periods Current Postings



As JUNE approaches, Bosnia war winding down
(chris)
May 08, 04:52

Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the
maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This interpretation would also support that the most powerful work in relative unison. There does not appear to be a major euro versus dollar split at the very top. They all work in unison for their own interests. The split is their interests versus everyone else's. By this I do not mean that serious damage will not be done to the US dollar, but that the damage is all part of the scheme that is umfolding.

Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This would suggest that the powers at the very top work in unison. There is no serious fundamental division between euro forces versus US dollar forces. They work for themselves and against the rest of us. This does not mean we are not about to see serious damage done to the US dollar, but that that is part of the plan.

I have been following your posts with interest for a couple of months now, and noted that you concurred with FOA and ANOTHER posts on several occasions.

REF: post 4/17/99 Msg ID 4816
post 4/18/99 Msg ID 4056
post 4/19/99 Msg ID 4910
post 4/25 etc. etc

I am always keen to absorb others opinions, frankly one learns more by listening to others (IMHO) than through ones' own research, but your posts of 7:53 and 9:15 on GOLD-EAGLE this morning left me somewhat confused. May I enquire what event(s) caused you to shift your opinion so dramatically?
Please keep in mind, I am not being critical--just curious.
Thanks.

No49

Picked up this gem:http://www.webpal.org/Gas.htm
Beach saying Y2K test not going good at the refineries....try to fit that "piece" into the puzzle.....and what "cooking oil you do get has to be paid in cheescake"....what do you think of the "riddle"....I think Long Thin and Hard on this does realy know.....ANOTHER...what do you think..?

north of 49... please advise what is gold eagle you mentioned earlier today. Another web site?

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.htmlOn the fringes no more; goldbugs are going mainstream. The UK central bank made it so clear and palpable, I submit the "gold manipulation theory" cannot now be dismissed out-of-hand, or perhaps even denied.

Stupid Question: Is the $100 Gold Maple Leaf a one-ounce coin?

Canamami, Michael and ALL,
I hope to post here about 8:00 MDT. Many very good posts written here these last few days. They need discussion!
FOA

I've always been intrigued by ones own logic/reasoning regarding the purchase of precious metals in one form or another. (I have found little to no discussion on this topic.) There are numerous opinions and reasons one does what they do (It seemed like a good idea at the time!) and your recent post noted below lead me to the questions below:

FOA (5/7/99; 8:09:11MDT - Msg ID:5699)
You stated: "The beginning of this new bull market in gold will be mired with "extreme" volatility! We never expected anything different. With the ending of the largest circulating reserve currency system about to ensue, nothing less than an investment in "actual gold bullion" will work."

FOA (5/7/99; 8:33:38MDT - Msg ID:5704)
You stated: "As stated, I will be buying over several weeks. This "surprise" is welcome and buying by many physical entities is ongoing!"

It would seem that your preference of precious metal ownership would be gold and in the form of bullion only. Correct? Any particular choice of one bullion coin or another? I've observed numismatic precious metal ownership is for more subjective than straight bullion. Do you agree? I too see the news of recent days leading us to very "opportune buying moments in history", the likes of which we may not see again for a long time. Any further thoughts or things I may of missed? Thank you for your time. Trash this if you wish.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htmChicken Man,

May I refer you to the following from Another, which can be
read at the above site in the "Gold Reports" list
under "Another Old & Free", or directly via:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~gunbury/ANOTHER21.html
- together with lots more -

This one was a classic... (fascinating how you percieve
"inside knowledge" even as the original thoughts were
turned into a satire about cheesecake and the Baker
in Switzerland)

My feeling is that the shorts will be given to wolves, but
as noone can predict the timing of a crash, noone can
predict when events of the magnitude suggested by Another
may commence. And there are a few big gorillas trying
to hold up the house of cards.

I don't think Mr. Kosares has posts this far back on
USAGOLD main site...

Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 21:03
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Someone once said, "noone wants gold, that's why the US$
price keeps falling". Many thinking ones laugh at such
foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is
dropping precisely because "too many people are buying it"!
Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not
better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices?
If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the
footsteps of giants?
I tell you, it is an easy path to follow! An experienced
guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see.
The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying
physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is loosing
value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will
disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The
massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now
missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not
anymore! We have reached production costs. Oil will have
nothing of "gold paper" if gold must stay in the
ground! And a CB values the wishes of oil far above it's
return of leased gold! Hear me now, "if gold tries to go
lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the
OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no
currency system could stand if "Oil" were to bid for gold!

Oil has kept "the deal" as the CBs sold paper to lower golds
price! All is fair. Asia will bid for gold not as in the
past. They now know that the free flow of oil has more value
than the Pacific economy. But the price that was paid may
be more than the world currency system can endure.

To close:
The US$ has risen on a flight of fear. That will now end as
the LBMA shorts are given to wolves. If this fire burns too
hot, gold will turn and it's trading halted. The price of
oil will explode as gold becomes the "world oil currency"!
Even now oil has locked the IMFs gold, Asia will bid against
them no more. We come to extreame times.

Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth.

Usul - Must be a beautiful day across America. Things are very quite here. No responses!

Everyone knows that a CB sells to other banks or trading partners. To auction gold to a select few dealers or other banks or trading partners is a means to raise cash, closes a position, or otherwise divest funds or a debt. I can't bid on that gold. The gold I can bid on, my coin dealer buddy tells me is in short supply but it finally does come for him to sell at the price set on some futures exchange. What we have here is a market of physical sales at two levels. Bank to bank. Dealer to consumer. It seems that bank to dealer supplies are thin. It seems that bank to bank supplies are non-existent and that is why the BOE seems to be selling, to fill a void, either because they have to pay a debt or are delaying the invetibable short squeeze. I am suprised that the bank to dealer supply still has gold coins. My interest peaks too when my coin dealer buddy still has supply but yet complains of delivery problems, yet he still has gold at current rates. Well that isn't correct. He told me he sells gold eagles at $310 plus tax. So obviously, gold continues to reach coin dealers but they are still filling demand. Gold must be slowly reaching the suppliers of coin dealers albeit slowly. Gold is reaching suppliers of suppliers of coin dealers, and since this must be mints then they are being supplied with gold to meet demand, albeit slowly too. So, how is the mint getting its gold, who supplies the mints with gold? It must be a fabricator that makes the gold planchets or die-cut rounds. This fabricator is getting its gold somewhere, albeit slowly. I doubt they are taking delivery from the futures market, as I hear it is slow to deliver. Oh, wait, slow to deliver? Maybe we are on to something here. So who supplies the futures markets? Bullion banks? CBs? Mines?

What we have here is a lack of information. What strikes me as odd, then, is that gold coins can be bought at spot plus a modest dealer mark up. Yet, the BOE feels compelled to sell gold, announce same, depress the price thus guaranteeing a lower price (except it is an auction and to private customers from whom the payment price for said gold will probably not be disclosed). Again a lack of information doesn't fill in the voids of the gold market mystery. But I am curious. If gold is so short, so forward sold, who keeps supplying gold for coins and why? Doesn't this make worse the supply situation further up the chain? Making it further short, which leads to my conclusive question? Are we the consumer being supplied borrowed gold at non-premium prices to hide the underlying fundamental supply problem that becomes worse with each coin purchased? Finally, as more gold coins are bought by consumers the greater the stress on the supply and the quicker the supply channel will break?

Here is evidence of supply channel stress:

Mint announces silver and gold coin shortages at the beginning of year.
US Mint delivers enough coins to cause dealers to lower the applied premium to the short supply of coins as the fresh supply arrives.
COMEX available reserves are consolidated from several banks to just one (or was it two?).
Slow delivery of all physical gold.

New subject. The BOE's obvious and sudden announcement was timed just right. Everyone reading this would agree that we were expecting the POG to hit the stops and boom over $300. While NY was in bed, BOE drives the price lower. Yet, it was such a precisely timed announcement that all observers knew immediatly the intent: to keep gold away from $291.50US. It was a desperate move that disregarded any subtlety or tact. It was an abrupt push. No excuse me's, so sorry's. Just a big bully push that made everyone take notice: HOLDING THE PRICE OF GOLD BELOW $290US IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH FOR THE BOE TO GO ON RECORD.

I believe this single act did more to gel for industry observers all the innuendos, rumors, and acts of gold price suppression were not innuendos, rumors, nor unintentional acts rather deliberate and now obvious attempts to prevent gold from hitting the stop -- A big sign of weakness that now opens those stops to target practice to those who may only have suspect but now know. The BOE announcement was as though it hung a big sign around the POG and said, "I dare you to push me above my closest stops." It is only a matter of time now. The flare to buy physical gold has been shot. It now floats above the sea illuminating any further attempt of POG suppression subtle or obvious as last desperate attempts to prevent what history will forever record as skullduggery of power. The enemy prepares in the shadow of the flare as it floats in the air.

As the flare is extinquised in a few days as it hits the surface, who will fire the next flare? The mysterious shooter best check the breach and the muzzle lest the flare gun backfire.

Thank you for asking me to explain myself. I appreciate the question. To me this is a puzzle and as more pieces become clearer, some of them have to be arranged. From the beginning, I have thought the war in Bosnia was designed to hold the euro down, and therefor was a currency war between the US and euroland. However, I have always suggested that this couldn't be all there is too it, as the IMF and dollar powers are simply too powerful to lose in a dispute with euroland. I have believed that there was a higher level above the goverments working in relative unison to control and manipulate events. Now this does appear to be the case. IMHO, the war in Bosnia is not a currency war. It is simply a currency manipulation. All the powers, whether euroland or US (ie such as G Sach's), are using this time period to convert US dollars into euros at the best possible exchange rate. The euro is deliberately being held down by 1.the war in Bosnia, and by 2.the artificial low POG. Once the Bosnia war ends, and once POG is set free, the euro will soar relative to the US dollar. Those who have been able to convert their dollars to euros (not you or me), will gain hugely. IMVHO, once the dollar is devalued, there will be an announcement of a new gold-linked US currency. Then the powerful will be able to move their fortunes they are now moving into euros back into the new US currency. The euro is in part a scheme to protect and enrich the powerful during this currency transition. It has always been my thinking that only the very powerful would be benefiting from this. This is not about the euro versus the dollar. In fact, the eventual merging of the euro and the new to be US dollar is probably already planned also. If events start to suggest otherwise, then I will rearrange pieces again. I am sorry, but just writing about this makes me very angry.

Great piece of writing!! Fact follows fact in perfect cadence. What happens next though, when another break for 300 takes off. Who's CB drew the short straw for that (alleged) market dump.

Exactly, who will fire the next flare? But it will soon not matter. Because, this BOE move was a desensitization to those in the know. We will expect the next flare. But we will be prepared with sun glasses or night vision goggles.

Worst case scenario (actually I can think of worse), is the US will sell gold. I just hope Congress must approve that. If Congress must approve it, it won't happen.

So what would be worse? All banks to say they will sell gold. You tell me. I am out of ideas.

Steve

PS. Thanks.

I think this conflict has purposes way beyond currencies. The latest clue is the absurd 'explanation' for taking out The Chinese Embassy. If anyone believes that this sparkling new building was erected in Belgrade, without our "outdated Intelligence" becoming current, well, there's this bridge over the East River that I'd like to talk to them about. 10% down and long term payments at only 1% per annum!!

I can't begin to fathom what grand event "They' have got written into the script, but I don't think we're going to have fun yet.

The only Idea I've got is what I suggested last night in# 5743. Nothing's changed hands yet (or it already has). When all the other CBs sold gold, we heard about it months later and 10s of dollars lower. They could of tanked the POG harder by just selling without an announcement. I just can't quite come up with a vision of how they will moon-walk their way back out of it.

As far as the story that they want to beat out the IMF and the Swiss; that's a crock! If that were the case, they would let the short covering create a bull trend to sell into.

test

I have not changed my broad opinion about this. I don't necessarily say everything I think if it won't be helpful in clarifying the pieces. Chris

Interesting slant on BOE story
--------------------

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, SATURDAY MAY 8 1999 - The new Labour government thought that gold was a barbarous relic. An
up-to-date, trend-setting country could manage without it. So the Bank of England was told to start selling the gold in its vaults at $35 an ounce, the price at which the Banque de France was buying it. Which of them was right became clear when the price went to $350 and then to $850. That was Harold Wilson's first government and now today's New Labour government is at it again. It has ordered a clearance sale in Threadneedle Street and will not be content until more than half of the gold that is still there has gone.

By signalling its punches to the market, it makes sure of getting the worst price. This is what Gordon Brown would call transparency. At the end of a century of inflation, finance ministers of his stamp still shun gold and would rather have each others' promises to pay. Gold's value does not depend on anybody's promise and that makes an anomaly in their eyes and a challenge to their own authority. They have already stamped out competition among the currencies of Europe.

The Chancellor wants us to come into this monopoly and use its Monopoly money, as the up-to-date, trend following thing to do. His clearance sale will clear the way for it. As for the Prime Minister, he may well believe that gold is "history", his term for everything that happened before New Labour was invented. Gold has a long history and ministers' promises a rather shorter one, but long enough to teach which of the two to trust.

Now why can't our newspapers speak some intelligent truth like that? (Rhetorical question)!!

Hey Steve! Maybe 'They' are counting on a national backlash to justify a course reversal before they have to actually part with any gold.

I challenge you to a 'wordplay' competetion on the BOE being on "Threadneedle street." Posting to be after Midnight MDT

Jon, at the risk of violating the guidelines of this forum, I'll refrain from designating the specific URL, and instead suggest that you go into a search engine such as www.momma.com and dial up "gold chat"--and dive in!!

Christine, I have obvioulsy touched a sensitive nerve, for which I apologise. The intensity of your suspicions of manipulation at various levels is--oh, I wouldn't say alarming, but worthy of further investigation, if one just had the means. It's just another one of those situations in which the bar has been raised to ionispheric levels, assuring that the people who comprise the masses, such as you and I, are kept on our collective leashes. It ain't a great fate, but where does one start to climb the beanstock??

No49

This BOE (Bank of England) anouncment, it's not a sale yet until July, is like a giant poker game gone bad for the short players. The BOE just showed everyone the price that needs to be broken to get the shorts to start covering, $290.

It's like we are all sitting at a large poker game and the shorts have been winning all day, taking everyones money and giving them stomach pains. Suddenly the BOE walks behind the short players with a huge mirror flashing the cards in there hands to the rest of the table. What do they have in their hands? Nothing. They've been winning all the money by bluffing every time. If you were the one losing all your money to them what would you do? Grin really big and bet everything knowing you have nothing to lose. Is this what we might see in the coming weeks? The losing players suddenly buying gold to break the magic $290 barier to start the rally? Any thoughts?

ALL,
Well, by now everyone must be aware of the "open management" of the gold price. "Another" had been bringing this picture to light long ago. In puzzle form, he offered ideas, Thoughts and directions for consideration. Only a short time ago most analysts completely wrote off such
"thinking" as being absolutely "on the fringe of reality"! Today, the "absolute fact" is that gold is used and managed as a "world currency" of major importance. After the BOE announcement on Friday, currency traders are grasping the concept that gold is, as never before "at the center of
reality"!

Many different factions are maneuvering gold these days, and each has their own agenda. The IMF / dollar faction, many years ago, went along with Europe in lowering the gold price in dollar terms. It made the dollar look stable and enforced it's continued use as the "currency of settlement" for strategic commodities. Any country running a balance of trade surplus of dollars, was free to buy gold at a stable to lower price, and partially replace the paper dollar reserves. Because the dollar is the "world reserve currency" many countries ran dollar surpluses with trading partners outside of the US. In this light we can see how the integrity of the dollar was expanded, even in countries of nonnative dollar origin!

Not only was physical gold purchased, but paper gold with distant CB backing was also accepted. Ever wonder how all of this gold was placed? You see, over the last many years, there has been a quiet boom going on in gold ownership. The sheer number of world gold buyers has
more than doubled, along with the amount of gold owned! The problem is that the amount of physical gold in existence has not doubled, only the warehouse receipts.

Most of it never, ever left the vaults, as the true placement was done in receipt form. Yes, slowly, over the years, even major private bullion holders offered up their physical for "convoluted, future delivered, leased and released gold". Much of what is now held is little more
than a form of gold options for "future deposit". Not unlike the "cash dollar that is supposed to be in your bank", but really isn't? As the bank only holds your deposit as a "credit" to your account, so is much of the world traded gold "only a credit of account"!

When Central Banks (mostly the European, at first) began to lease / lend gold, they were beginning what was to become "the master plan". The creation of a broad, liquid paper gold market that would ulltementally undermine the dollar, in time. As I said above, initially it was offered as an "appeasement" for continued dollar use. However, even the IMF / dollar faction never expected the successful creation of another competing reserve currency, the Euro! Right up
to it's offering, the political money was on the side of a complete failure, 100% with ten to one odds.

Not only did they lose, the Euro even accepted a percentage of gold as Euro reserves. If that wasn't enough, the ECB also instituted a policy of "marking to the market" it's gold reserves and effectively blocking any new sales or leases. These actions, as subtle and misunderstood as they
were have had the effect of officially making gold money again. Yes, this new broadly traded paper gold market, standing side by side with the physical market has become a world currency.

The problem this creates for the IMF / dollar is that most, if not all of this new gold market is settled in dollars! Dollars that broke a contract with the world in 1971 and went off the "gold exchange standard" at $41 to the ounce. The same dollar reserve currency that is not supported when the gold price rises. If the ECB does nothing but stand firm by not allowing physical out of it's vaults, the dollar will be trapped by gold. The US treasury cannot use gold as a backing reserve as the ECB does, because the BIS would claim it at $41 to settle trade imbalances. They
have that authority and as such it leaves the US the only option of outright gold sales. However, with the dollar as "the" reserve currency, we can expect many nations to bid "aggressively" for any US gold. China, among others comes to mind! That is what America found when they tried to auction it's gold in 1978. The Euro carries no such baggage.

This all leaves us in the present political situation, where the IMF entity, that was formed to replace the gold standard, is now trying to back the present paper gold with physical to prevent a run on the dollar. It is a futile effort as the ECB / BIS have grown the gold market into massive proportions by encouraging the many year expansion of holders through paper securities. All denominated, ultimately, in dollars. We will see $10,000 gold, count on it! It's the only way this can be resolved. That same figure will create massive backing for the Euro and hasten it's journey into world reserve currency status. Expect most of the ECB liability for gold to be easily converted into Euros at the dollars expense.

Now, the BOE action clearly shows the split between them and the IMF / Dollar faction. They have given up on freeing up IMF gold to support the dollar and are actively trying to help their LBMA. England will be forced into the EURO as they abandon ship. I expect an explosion in open interest on Comex as major players try to hedge themselves against short gold. The US now has no choice but to encourage gold to rise and use that action as a political ploy. They will no doubt try to gain much mileage out of the fact that the treasury has 8,000 tonnes of gold for dollar backing or outright sales. It will be a political discussion, only. As the gold market becomes more dynamic and gains media attention, many congressional investigations will target the short funds. After all, with gold killing the dollar, something must be done.

I have some other commits and replies to other posts. Be back in a minute.

FOA

IMHO, if the players are showing their hands, the game is about over. That was essentially laying the cards on the table.

Richard, Oregon (5/8/99; 12:09:55MDT - Msg ID:5756)

Hello Richard,
First I want to say I'm sorry I posted 8:00MDT without a PM after the date. Not only that I am very late!

Your questions: " It would seem that your preference of precious metal ownership would be gold and in the form of bullion only. Correct?"
Yes, Richard. It should be viewed as an appreciating cash currency, not an investment.

"Any particular choice of one bullion coin or another? I've observed numismatic precious metal ownership is for more subjective than straight bullion. Do you agree?"
In a way, I agree. However, major investors do look at "numismatic" coins as an "Art Form" not unlike paintings. And, just as paintings were carried off by invading armies, rare coins will also hold their higher value during a currency war. Note: I didn't always feel this way. Another guided me into this style of thinking.

"I too see the news of recent days leading us to very "opportune buying moments in history", the likes of which we may not see again for a long time. Any further thoughts or things I may of missed?"
Please read my last post #5772. thanks FOA

Hi folks!
I've tried to follow the arguments on golds plight for some time.
Having a suspicious mind being a Scorpio, and hopefully a little intelligence, I think there's trouble afoot.
I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring and disclose my master plan for your opinion.
It seems Gold is being manipulated for whatever reason, that's plain to see. So I've taken a big punt on small cap gold mines with gold still in the ground and not committed re: hedging. Some of these small mines have taken a hiding lately being over committed with debt but producing at $220.00 ounce and will make spectacular recoveries if the gold price moves.
I believe the Emperor has no clothes.
Justmeanu
PS Still seeking good looking women with no taste!

THX-1138 (5/7/99; 17:14:19MDT - Msg ID:5739)

Hello THX-1138,

I think you are on the correct trail. Please read my #5772 post as it may add dimension / expansion to your considerations. It is complicated, but then so is currency trading!
FOA

PH in LA (5/7/99; 15:47:31MDT - Msg ID:5729)

Things are getting clearer now!

Hello PH,
I'm happy this is opening up. The BOE action should bring some high powered analysis from the public investment sector. You mentioned Mosel, I think Another had some discussion with him before. If he post here, they would talk again, I'm sure. FOA

canamami (5/7/99; 7:27:41MDT - Msg ID:5697)
Gold Manipulation - Popular Frustration
I found this on a stock investment Board. There's a lot of anger out there:

Hello again canamami,
Yes, many who invest in the gold "industry" are upset with this current state of affairs. However, investors that buy gold as a dollar replacement find this action much to their liking. For them gold is a currency that can not be purchased too cheaply. You see, it all depends how you view gold?
Is it a commodity or is it money? FOA

htt://www.usagold.comAfter lurking at this site and the others for many months now, I am out of the closet. This is war and I am prepared to fight. The BOE stunt yesterday was the last straw. I am now convinced that the best and most expedious way to slay the beast and the evil forces that are trashing and manipulating gold prices is to take the fight to them, instead of remaining a passive victum of their machinations. It was for this reason that upon hearing the BOE announcement I immediately purchased some gold coins and took possession. This was done both as a protest and I believe as a wise investment. If one is serious about seeing gold restored to its proper place in international commerce and monetary systems worldwide, polite intellectual discussions and bitching will not cut it. One must be prepared to follow in the footsteps of giants. I propose [and will] that everytime the "goon squad" [to use Bill Murphys apt description] orchestrates an attack on gold as occurred yesterday, one should immediately counter with a purchase of physical gold- coins, bars, jewelry, anything made of or with gold. It realy does not matter how large or small the purchase is - just buy something, take possession and get it out of their reach. They have shown themselves to be weak and scared. Now is the time to stick it in the beasts eye. We are many and will prevail, for truth and basic mathematics are on our side. I am off to slay the dragon. PAX

Chicken man (5/6/99; 18:32:10MDT - Msg ID:5671)
Christine
A very productive walk!.....why not another virtual currency like the EURO....? keep everybody in a state of total confusion.....If FOA or ANOTHER would like to comment as to "Will the Brits (LBMA) rescue the EURO ?
If gold goes to $1000 ,then the Euro would have reserves backed with 45-50% gold instead of 15%....right...?

Hello Chicken man,
No the Brits will not rescue the Euro, but the Euro may well rescue them from going down with the dollar! The BOE sale is but a small drop in the bucket, attempting a political statement that supports the LBMA with gold.
If I remember right, Another never thought that England would survive the currency change. It now looks like they will, at least, go down fighting!
Yes, the ECB system banks will be well backed with reserves, even if their dollar holdings crash! I expect they will be buying gold with dollars, in the open if the US congress does sell any IMF gold reserves.


FOA

Hello F.O.A I have read all of Anothers thoughts here at U.S.A GOLD and i am presently reading In The Footsteps of Giant.My question this evening is about the June rumor that is circulating.I am assuming it pertains to a change in the price of Gold? Are you aware of it.Also what about a letter that has been mentioned before titled " THE STING".Are these the product of an over active imagination? Also why hasn't Another posted in awhile i have been following you to for 5 months night and day.I noticed that another has not posted for well over a week now,ever since a certain individual remarked "Up yours Pal" I would to apologize for this persons comment.I have learned greatly from the both of you please don't stop posting here,for your "THOUGHTS" are truely Golden. Thankyou.

St. George (5/8/99; 21:08:00MDT - Msg ID:5779)
THIS IS WAR

Hello St. George,
Good Idea! What really allowed this "master plan" of gold manipulation to work was investors putting their money into the gold industry, not physical gold. Far to many entities purchased paper gold in one form or another (most mutual funds included). This action became an accelerating
trend that the BIS acted upon. They played the gold market for their own purpose. In the process they did give many people an avenue of escape in physical gold. Let's face it, buying gold in the $380 to $280 range was and still is an incredible deal, considering it's history. Now, for reasons I have laid out in the past, any paper gold may have a problem of "perceived value". If the crisis is as bad as the BOE action indicates, the very world currency system will need real gold to survive.
Holders of "gold in the growing" will be fighting an accelerating public outcry for the government to do something! Know what I mean? FOA

"correction" My mistake!

Holders of "gold in the ground"

FOA

...Meanwhile, back at the FED. Allen, in deep depression ponders what it will be like to walk the gallows. When gold breaks $290 and the dollar goes into the toilet, Allen knows he will be done for.

In desparation Allen calls in his Genie and asked him how to prevent going to the gallows when the dollar goes ka..plooie.

The Genie replies: "Allen, you are going to need a scapegoat. Do you have one?"

Allen, putting his hand to his throat, replies, "Uh..no Genie, I guess I am done for."

The Genie ponder and then... "Well, lookie here Allen. I just happened to find a spare scapegoat in my magic bag. Yup it will do fine. Its a bug. It's called Y2k. Its perfect... ...Except for one problem Allen. This bug isn't timed to go off until Nov/Dec. You'll have to hold the market up and keep the lid on gold until then. Can you do it?

Allen, making a call the England, smiles. "No prob Geen, it's as good as done.

Smiling, Allen rides off into the sunset confident that he will not go to the gallows. In fact, he now sees that he will go down in history as the savior to his people. He and his new gold-backed currency, the greenspan, will liberate his people from their y2k induced bondage.

.

What manner of wordplay? Methinks you have me at a disadvantage as you obviously have developed a line of thought toward this end.

Besides 00:00 MDT = Past My Bedtime. I'll shall probably be in my bed chamber sawing lumber about then. But I would be interested to see what transpires. I hope you get some takers.

GF

Golden Truth (5/8/99; 21:23:33MDT - Msg ID:5781)


Hello Golden Truth,
Thanks for reading and participating in this discussion. We can also thank USAGOLD for creating a "civil" forum on the net. I know some very high powered people read this and will some day sign on. They do enjoy ALL the fine thoughts presented here.
Please understand that Another writes when he wants to offer Thoughts to the minds of others. He does read much of this and gets a "world perception" much the same way we do by talking to others. When someone says, "Up yours Pal", they have no input for consideration. And consideration of each others thoughts is more valuable than wealth. You would be surprised at how many wealthy people hold that opinion. FOA

http://www.ecb.int/press/fs/fs990430en.pdf
Actually, it looks like they're at 30%

From the Eurosystem Weekly Financial........

Asset 1 Gold: 105,323

Liability 1
Banknotes in Circulation: 332,280

Asset 1/Liability 1 = 31.69

$1000 gold would equal 100% backing(!?!?!)

GF

http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html#readerGet it here.

USAGOLD (5/4/99; 11:18:50MDT - Msg ID:5564)
E-Mail Question for Another and/or FOA from Steve
Michael,
I'm at work and don't have my password, but I don't want to forget these thoughts. The Saudi/Iran talks seem to have
vast implications, not only on possible oil prices, but with
regards to reliance on the US military. Could it be that
Saudi doesn't have the same faith in the US, could it be thata Saudi repudiation of the dollar might anger the US? An alliance with Iran would lessen the need for US military presence, thus opening the way for pricing oil in Euros or, perhaps, a basket of currencies, ie dollar/euro/yen.

Could you post this for opinions. I'd be interested to what
you, Another and FOA think.

Reply,
I think the political aspects of that sector of the world is evolving, and doing so in a way most analysts did not consider. Often, I would make a statement of possible alliance changes and would receive the typical "they would never do that because the US has the military for their
protection"! Well, does anyone ever consider that the US would defend that oil supply no matter what currency or price is used to purchase it. There is no possible political or strategic purpose to simply walk away from the middle east if Euros, gold or a basket of currencies were used to
price oil. To do otherwise, would allow the possible complete destruction of the oil fields, and that is a misplaced logic promoted by dollar advocates.

No, in time, oil will be revalued by it's true value for world commerce and that value will be denominated in the strongest currencies. Euros and gold!
Thanks FOA

Goldfly (5/8/99; 22:04:55MDT - Msg ID:5787)
FOA - 15% backing?

Goldfly,
Hello again. Truly the ECB percentage as a number does not mean much at this time. It's the concept that is 180 degrees against the IMF / dollar system. For anyone to measure the value of Euro backing at present, is like looking at gold at today's price. It's out of context.
The beauty of the ECB ploy, is that it doesn't lock them into a rigid gold exchange standard. With gold trading in the open, all currencies are free to be exchanged for gold at any given point in time. The old IMF / dollar manipulation of gold, used from the early 70s gained nothing and cost the world dearly for the benefit of the fictional US living standard it created. Had they just allowed gold to rise from the beginning, commerce would have been much more balanced, nation to nation.
Prior to the Euro, Europe had to play the IMF game. The same game that has now backfired on the US today. They truly don't need the IMF and may pull out later. FOA

I hope to return early tomorrow.

Thank you FOA

Not yet, just now working it out. The street name seems so perfect for something wordsmithy.

I thought of you as a westerner, but from your sat. nt. bed time I'm now guessing New England.

Your view of the BoE announcement and the forthcoming picture of the physical Gold market has given all us Goldhearts much more defined area of discussion. I am sure that I speak for many here at the USAGOLD Forum when I say, stay in touch and help lead us to the golden promised land of the little peoples opportunity to walk in the footsteps of GIANTS. I shall now spend more time rereading and thinking of your eye opening revelations. Thank you again.
<;-)

That was one of those things that "Seemed like a good idea at the time", But it crashed and burned when I tried it out. The best I could come up with was "The web of intrigue is now woven of threads so thin, they could pass through the eye of a needle"

I'm probably suffering from "Obsessive compulsive wordplay disorder"

The price of gold was tightened up even further on Friday, this time by a BOE constrictor. OK OK I'm going.

I know well your thought on Gold stocks, do you hold the same opinon about stocks of USA oil producers?
Many thanks for your many thoughts here. I am understanding them a lot better. I did not need any convincing, have been a Gold buyer for over 20 years.
I do have one complaint about numismatic Gold Coins, I never sell any. I still own some that I held through the 1980 runup.
Goog health to you el

Anyone else having trouble posting? 3:36 AM MDT

Again, thanks for most inciteful poker analogy yesterday:
"This BOE (Bank of England) announcement, it's not a sale yet until July, is like a giant poker game gone bad for the short players.
The BOE just showed everyone the price that needs to be broken to get the shorts to start covering, $290."

Is it possible that the BOE's move was the last move in the poker game, ie. laying the cards down on the table. Perhaps that was the intent. They are providing the signal that the shorts will no longer be protected, in effect. They have essentially conveyed that the shorts are there and at what price they can be removed. For this and many reasons, I believe we are just weeks or sooner away from big changes.

What if:

--gold is being truly demonitized and we are all the patsies who will own it while the banks go off and do something else? (devil advocate quetion only) Is this possible?

"They" appear to control gold more and more. My thought is they will not be able to demonetize gold. But they could be able to do things like fix gold's price and reduce it's tradeability, once they've allowed it to rise in price some from here.

The beginning of the end really started in March, 99, when the oil states effectively reduced oil supply and dramatically raised prices. POG cannot be manipulated downward very long against strong upward pressure on price of oil. So any further moves now are simply designed to hold gold down a little longer so everyone (IMF/dollar and BIS/euro) can get their euros at a good exchange rate. The US, Euroland, Britain-- via the Bosnia war, and threats to sell gold (Swiss, IMF, BOE) are all working together so they can all get their euros cheap.

Hello Usul
Thank you for the URL.....spent the day reading instead of talking..learned much...the patience of GIANTS is hard to fathom...could be the lenght of stride when one measures the distance between the FOOTSTEPS...

yoU See yoU Learn....Somethings in life are a joy to discover...but after you find out it would be to no use to reveal....to make oneself greater at the expense of a friend is not in the book of virtues....honor for eyes of three...?

FOA....If the pound and the LBMA are outside the EURO,where would Cheesecake trade...?

To the roost to watch and learn....chicken man...

Being extremely greatful to all for the profound discussions going on since friday and and the patient answers to Q's put to FOA a lot of ground has been covered in the aftermath of the shocking, but then extremely timely and informative gold sale charade by the BoE. The pityful size of BoE's gold hoard, by comparison to IMF or SNB, suggests that the FRB et al are running out of allies in the game of suppressing the GoP.
It must have been about three years since I've heard from a NY manager of a blue ribbon fund (vs hedge fd.)for the first time, that according to his opinion the US Tsy and FRB are calling in every favor from allies (and maybe blackmailing some too-NBS?)in order to keep the PoG from rising. He also mentioned the ballooning and ever expanding short position of speculative hedge funds, which according to his sources may have reached 8.000 tons 3years ago already.
Reflecting about the past sellers, excluding the Dutch and Belgium CB's for correcting their crippling debt burden, it has been Canada, Australia and now UK, while IMF and and the Swiss National Bank (some extra humanitarian pressure after all the talk about Nazi gold?), both probably never to transpire seems to be a lot of hot air in order to demoralize an already weak market. An intersting bunch, or do I read something into the group, which may be coincidental? Any thoughts welcome.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/econ_preview.htx?source=htx/http2_mwIncreasing.

Europe needs stable not strong euro - Ciampi


Updated 10:49 AM ET May 9, 1999

STRESA, Italy (Reuters) - Europe needs a stable euro, not a strong
one, Italian Treasury Minister Carlo Azeglio Ciampi said over the
weekend.

"Some people expected a strong euro but I always distinguish
between a strong euro and a solid one," Ciampi told reporters
Saturday on the sidelines of a conference in the lakeside town of
Stresa.

"I have never wanted a strong euro because in a situation where the
U.S. economy is expanding strongly while Europe has low growth, a
strong euro certainly does not help growth."

The euro has gradually depreciated against the dollar for much of its
short life, though it has stabilized and even picked up slightly in
recent sessions.

I'm glad you liked the post. I thought long and hard on what this BOE announcement meant. In essence I believe this was their last message to the shorts. They have blatantly knocked the price down one last time to give the shorts time to cover. Have the shorts listened? Apperantly not since the Commitment of Traders still shows an extremely large short position. Well, live and learn...and the shorts will probably only learn when they have sold everything they own to cover their mistakes.

I'm wondering, can you buy gold with a credit card? I'm tempted to get ten coins Monday and do what I did when I bought my computer. Everytime a credit card company called asking if I wanted a new card I said sure, and switched my balance over. I went for three months with basically a free loan and then paid it all off in one lump sum. It's tempting...VERY TEMPTING RIGHT NOW.

be tempted to lash out in anger or turn back the clock on its
economic reforms.>

How about bombing the Chinese Embassy to discourage them from participating in western style Capitalistic activities. Such as their Central Bank buying a lot of gold!

Michael, Another, FOA, All:
I've been following the discussions on this site since its inception. I've found no other gold/financial discussion group of such high quality anywhere else on the Net. Thank you all, and especially Michael, Another and FOA, for this incredible opportunity to gain such critical knowledge, insight and wisdom in these "interesting times."

I know numerous discussions here have focused on suggestions for surviving various Y2K scenarios -- i.e.: accumulate stores of food, water, gold, and other day-to-day provisions to survive a relatively short-term crisis situation, and then "spend" gold and silver coins to purchase necessities as needed. But I don't recall (perhaps I missed it) much discussion about how to proceed on a day-to-day basis during and after the turmoil created by a global currency switch from US$ to Euro.

In light of FOA's recent comments (5/8/99; 20:16:12MDT - Msg ID:5772 mentioning $10,000 gold), the biggest question in my mind is converting gold back into spendable currency for day-to-day necessities. In other words, from having traded commodities, I've learned you need to have an exit strategy in mind before getting involved in the trade. So, from a practical day-to-day perspective for individual citizens holding hugely appreciated gold bullion and numismatics, what's the best way to convert that gold back into usable assets?

As I see it, the options are:
a. Go to local coin dealer and buy dollars with gold? But who would want to spend gold to purchase devalued, depreciating and/or virtually worthless US$?
b. Go to local coin dealer and buy foreign currency (e.g.: Euros) with gold? Will coin dealers have enough or any foreign currency to purchase this gold from me? Since no physical Euros exist (in the short term) that means electronic transfers only through banks. The last time I checked with U.S. banks, I could not find a bank that would open a foreign currency account within the U.S. borders.
c. Sell the gold to a bank? Many banks will not deal with gold from depositors.
d. Place the gold with a U.S. bank as collateral for a loan? Even if the bank did accept my gold, my option for currency is still a very-weak-to-worthless US$.
e. Trade gold/silver coins directly for goods and services. This implies a "black market" type of gold spending if someone tried to avoid paying capital gains taxes on hugely appreciated gold assets.
f. Pay bills electronically (i.e.: audit trail) through e-gold. But every time I pay a bill, I'm liquidating my hugely appreciated gold holdings on which capital gains taxes apply, thus creating a potentially serious bookkeeping challenge to meet tax obligations.

I would think/hope that the only logical step would be for the U.S. to eventually make the Euro a/the legal transactional currency in America. Since there is no physical Euro currency (in the short term), that means cashless transactions only.

Am I missing something here? Does anyone have any corrections or additional options?

Thanks. BC

Demonetized Gold is in the eye of the beholder. Remember our award winning exchange? Value in = value out. All it takes for gold to act like money, is for the Fiat currencies to appear unstable.

I'm looking here at a news letter from Donald C. Rowe, who claims to be "One of the top two money managers in the U.S. today." (Your gonna love this)

<<
---The Social Security system will be turned over to a new Quasi-public corporation with an independent board of trustees having powers comparable to those of trustees for private pension plans.----The $370 billion in S.S. taxes collected each year represents a pool of capital almost TRIPLE the size of the record $125 billion that flowed into mutual funds last year!----Stock prices have nowhere to go but up>>>

Quite a piece of work there. However just as you are wondering about a worst case scenario for gold, I have been wondering, when ever I hear about this S.S. plan, if this is the true force behind the current market mania. It's a pet hobby horse of Clinton, even if it's not going to happen, the possibility alone could explain the seemingly irrational onward and upward surge in market prices.

If it did come about, the latent devastation built is absolutely incredible. As things are now, a Crash or major correction would wipe out peoples (perceive) savings. Now imagine wiping out social security along with it. The wild thing that I see here is that the quantities of inflow would be so vast, the bubble could be pushed to unbelievable PE ratios before it burst. Then when it did there would be trillions of dollars of paper for sale and no buyers. Poof! All gone.

So, back to gold. It could be that the CBs are coming to believe that it's a Fiat world after all. However, Has there been one incident of a previously announced sale actually happening. In this last year we have gone from unknown liquidations to alleged intentions. This does not seem like the way to De-monetize gold. Only two reasons for the current gold game make any sense. One is the holding down of the POG to accumulate Gold. The other is to prevent the cataclysm that would result from the short covering now required due to the Hedge funds et-al having succumbed to the bigger fool syndrome on the down-side.

Many people ask the questions you ask.

We can learn how to proceed to some degree from the various breakdowns around the globe associated with the Asian currency disintegrations. In most of those countries, gold/currency exchanges cropped up to meet the needs of citizens/consumers as the currency crisis proceeded -- even in (or perhaps because of) the most dismal circumstances. This will occur universally during currency crises because enterprising individuals will attempt to capitalize on the currency problem ala free market economics -- some will be highly capitalized. In the various contagion countries, there was some direct barter involving gold for goods, i.e., the stories circulating about Indonesians exchanging British sovereigns for water. However, no matter what type of gold you own it will be difficult to use it in direct barter because most consumers and business people have no idea whether or not the gold you offer is genuine, non-counterfeit, etc. An intermediary/exchange will probably be necessary to make conversions. Up until any economy reaches full logistical breakdown, you will most likely be able to exchange your gold for whatever currency is being used at local or national gold dealers, coin dealers, banks (in some countries), etc. If the breakdown proceeds to crisis proportion and there is no reliable mail system, telephone, banking system, you will be forced to exchange gold in your local area with a local vendor. DO NOT EXCHANGE ANY MORE GOLD THAN YOUR DAILY OR WEEKLY NEEDS REQUIRE. We have learned from watching the various Asian and South American currency tragedies, that currency debasement comes in waves while gold maintains its purchasing power throughout the period. Don't be swayed by government efforts to make you believe that all will be OK. It is not likely that it will be. (Look at the gold/currency graphs of any Asian or South American currency that has been debased and you will see what I mean. We publish them from time to time in News & Views -- as a reminder.) By the way, I do not believe that we have to come to the end of the road with the currency breakdowns in Asia and South America. We are simply in a lull. And I am still deeply concerned that the contagion will reach American shores.

Some of the other strategic options you offer are open to discussion and their success is a matter of opinion and business/financial strategy, I will leave to the good judgement of the members of this table.

This is not meant to be a complete answer to your questions, but a beginning. I suggest you discuss these matters with a qualified gold broker to clarify your specific needs and how to meet them. You are touching on what could become some fairly complex scenarios. In the end we cannot prepare for every contingency, only for the ones each of us as individuals believe to be the most likely.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm<<>>

Meanwhile, Rep. Porter Goss, R-Fla., chairman of the
House intelligence committee, said the bombing shows
that America's intelligence capabilities are stretched too
thin and that such mistakes will happen as a result.

``I say it's a reaping of the harvest of the
underinvestment in our intelligence capabilities,'' Goss
said on ``Fox News Sunday.''

Goss's Senate counterpart, Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.,
agreed: ``We've been doing defense, which intelligence
is part and parcel of, on the cheap for about 13 straight
years, and now you're seeing the fruits of it.''

The administration is seeking about $29 billion for
intelligence programs in the 2000 budget, an increase of
about 9 percent. But critics say that proposed increase
comes after years in which intelligence spending has
effectively declined. Only a small portion of that budget
goes to the CIA: much is for spy satellites and military
intelligence.

to interject a brief thought at this forum in tribute to all the grand ladies that were burdened with the rearing of such a group as we have gathered here at this Round Table. They are to be remembered, and complimented on the product of their successful efforts.

Peter Asher (5/9/99; 1:37:39MDT - Msg ID:5794)

<>

If this is an example of your typical "crash and burn', I should say that failure is a bitter pill, the taste of which you shall never know. Grade: A+

el St.One (5/9/99; 3:31:32MDT - Msg ID:5795)
FOA
I know well your thought on Gold stocks, do you hold the same opinion about stocks of USA oil producers?


el St.One,
That is a good question. I have thought about this for some time. Of all the world corporate citizens, oil companies will have the worst time of it. The 1970s oil shock was induced by the US taking the dollar off the gold standard. It had nothing to do with supply and demand or the world running out of oil. Plainly, it was a shock of "pricing" oil to allow for the depreciation of the
currency. Some said oil rose far to much to have represented the resulting depreciation. Nonsense! Oil was priced far to low, at the time, because it was expected that the dollar would honor gold conversion at $41+/- and then slowly depreciate by changing the rate to $500+ over time. A form of official, sliding devaluation against gold, while maintaining international convertibility. It was then, just as today, that the "expectation" of receiving gold at a bargain rate that allowed for cheap oil. When the dollar broke from gold, it's oil conversion rate (oil price) had
to make for "past lost value" first, then rise to equate "current value". Nothing has changed, as oil has come down over these past years because official gold was made liquid through a paper exchange. The only difference is that gold is off the official exchange standard and trades in an
open, highly liquid market, LBMA. No one has to set a rate, you just buy it. Of course, all of this is yesterdays news, as the entire system is in evolution.
What does this have to do with oil stocks? The second oil shock is coming, and this one will not be about the dollar going off the gold standard. The shock will arrive in the form of world oil no longer being traded in dollars as the major settlement. If you think nations will run to grab "gold in the ground" during a currency crisis, wait till we see how they grab "oil in the ground" during a
"REAL" oil crisis.

A country can operate without gold during a hyperinflation for some time, but they cannot even defend themselves without oil. Think about it? FOA

canamami -- you ask, and I am not sure that anyone answered, "Is the $100 Gold Maple Leaf a one oz. coin ?"
I am a bit confused, but the one oz. 0.9999 pure Au Canadian Gold Maple Leaf coin is labeled "50 Can$", if this answers the question. The Australian one oz. 0.9999 pure Au Nugget coin is labeled "100 A$". hope this helps.
<;-)

I would like to draw special attention to something that is off-topic from gold, but remains the business of this Round Table. See this recent post to Golden Truth from FOA:

<Please understand that Another writes when he wants to offer Thoughts to the minds of others. He does read much of this and gets a "world perception" much the same way we do by talking to others... And consideration of each others thoughts is more valuable than wealth. You would be surprised at how many wealthy people hold that opinion.>>

Here FOA has given voice to my silent thoughts, even as I have at length endeavored to lead by example, particularly in extending a measure of courtesy in reference even outside this forum to those public individuals that might on the surface be perceived to thwart the desires of goldhearts. While it is never easy to recognize where allies may be found, it is all too easy to forestall a friendship with rashness. After the intrigue has passed, this forum may indeed find its halls swollen with notable emissaries having golden tales to share with all.

Michael and FOA,

Michael, Thank you for your quick response re: selling gold during/after US$/Euro currency switch. I've been following the recommendations and news in News & Views as well.

When FOA and Another were talking about $3000 and $6000 gold, I thought: "What a great potential for profit." But with the mention of $10,000 gold, I got a gut feeling that this kind of huge appreciation would have to be just too big a temptation to the US Government as a source of tax revenue or confiscation.

I do remember FOA mentioning (10/10/98; 18:51:39MDT - Msg ID:494): "Physical gold purchase, contrary to most analysis, will be encouraged in America as an alternate form of wealth (401-K or retirement savings) because it will redirect money from going into the Euro."

FOA, from the perspective of seven months later, do you still think that the US government will encourage private gold ownership as an alternate form of wealth to keep money from going into the Euro. Especially with gold going to such an astronomical price of $10,000? Or has something happened to modify your viewpoint?

Thanks. BC

FOA - Nice to hear you are still about this table of round. The light in the castle is very limited for viewing purposes but one's voice always comes through loud and (hopefully) clear.

FOA - Thanks for your direct response to my #5756. I do own a few 'numismatic' coins and yes I really appreciate the history and rarity of each. I have a few '08 $20 St.Gs. The '08s are special because I like TR and own the "American Experience" about his life and times as our president. "Art Form", yes, if they could only talk. Soon to be 100 years old.

Re: #5772 - "A great post" doesn't say enough from me. I already felt the BOE announcement on Friday was good news for GoldHearts, but you put it in perspective and gave me a glimpse of the 'bigger picture'. I also felt good that I, as a novice, was actually learning a lot here for the fact that I had already seen it for what it truly is, an outstanding buying opportunity. MK - I nominate #5772 for the Great Archive, any seconds! Thank again FOA. As always, it is a pleasure to hear your voice. Richard

Thank you for the validation. Coming from our most elegant of posters, it is heart warming indeed.

BC (5/9/99; 10:53:27MDT - Msg ID:5807)
I believe MK had some great advice in his #5809 and wanted to share some thoughts also. I, like you, have had the same questions, what if . . . .. We can only speculate and therefore what happens, happens. Plan for the worst, as they say. Like MK stated, hang on to your gold. Don't exchange any more than you absolutely have to.

I do remember back in the mid '70s when silver went sky high. I lived in Phoenix at the time. I remember ads in the paper for washers and dryers, etc., for so many pre '64 silver quarters. I wished I had saved the newspaper. That was real then. I suspect, tenths, quarters, halves, and 1oz American Eagles would be readily exchangeable for major purchases or greenbacks for those smaller purchases. I find it hard to believe, at this point, that the US would do anything to encourage the use of the Euro over the $. I do know those that have something to sell will find a way for you to buy/barter/? for it. Just my thoughts!

WORTH REPEATING
(vronsky) May 09, 18:03

One particular thought in my last posting needs extra special emphasis. John Hathaway, portfolio manager of one of the world's most SUCCESSFUL gold funds (Tocqueville Gold Fund) says:

"When gold goes through various chart points, it's going to go through at $100, $200 clips, not a dollar a day."

One needs to be ALREADY ON BOARD when it starts...

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.html
$283.20.

Above link a good read on gold.

Within my lifetime ?
<;-)

Richard, I had the same thought about FOA'a 5772, and I'll second the motion. But there's a problem....

Can we not scrounge up FIVE MORE VOTES for the Hall of Record?

GF

I'll weigh in for FOA's post to be in the Hall of Records. Thanks FOA.
Julia

BC (5/9/99; 16:15:20MDT - Msg ID:5817)
$10,000 gold
Michael and FOA,

Michael, Thank you for your quick response re: selling gold during/after US$/Euro currency switch. I've been following the recommendations and news in News & Views as well.

When FOA and Another were talking about $3000 and $6000 gold, I thought: "What a great potential for profit." But with the mention of $10,000 gold, I got a gut feeling that this kind of huge appreciation would have to be just too big a temptation to the US Government as a source of tax
revenue or confiscation.

I do remember FOA mentioning (10/10/98; 18:51:39MDT - Msg ID:494): "Physical gold purchase, contrary to most analysis, will be encouraged in America as an alternate form of wealth
(401-K or retirement savings) because it will redirect money from going into the Euro."

FOA, from the perspective of seven months later, do you still think that the US government will encourage private gold ownership as an alternate form of wealth to keep money from going into the Euro. Especially with gold going to such an astronomical price of $10,000? Or has something
happened to modify your viewpoint?

Thanks. BC

Hello BC,
My post of #494 is taken from Another's Thoughts of some time ago. I am forced to agree, in that there will be no other political strategy. Indeed, that concept must be looking across the "valley of doom" and observing life in a changed economic environment. History demonstrates the
precedent of gold often taking the drivers seat as "the asset class of choice" when paper money is destroyed. Most likely, the leaders are forced to go along because politicians cannot govern when no one will use their money! Yes, I am aware that many inflations find the citizens still using the hyper inflated currencies, long after it's value has become nothing. Many South American countries come to mind in their present state. But, that action is just the force of "legal tender laws" expending their last inertia energies.

As for $10,000 gold, does this sound strange? If it does you have probably been listening to the advocates of "gold the commodity". This group of educated investors usually "voice" their beliefs in an endearing, logical light that shines from the "pocketbook". How else can one view gold when all of their money is in the mining industry? As present events demonstrate, the use of gold as a currency subjects it to wide value swings, outside the it's most recent history. Truly, "gold the money" is bad business for industry investors. Gold's downside bankrupts them and it's
upside negates them to mining taxes for the state! BC, all present gold operations have bet on gold maintaining a stable value, ($500??) in the realm of it's commodity function. That is why they cannot and do not want to discuss gold in a currency mode. None of them are prepared for that
occurrence. However, history shows that gold is valued far higher as a currency medium than a jewelry item.
Please read my FOA (5/9/99; 15:40:38MDT - Msg ID:5814). There you will find the same relationship of oil to gold as we find gold to currencies today.
Gold does not presently register it's true value in terms of things. That is because it still valued as a "backup / insurance" currency against the world paper reserve system. Yes, most of the wealth holders, today would like to see the dollar system operate, as is. For them it still offers the best of all worlds. In that environment, three fourths of humanity work to service the one fourth.
Were gold allowed to trade in the open as a currency value regulator, it's benefit to the vast majority of working people would create a "human" premium. That premium would price gold out of it's "store it in the back room insurance" value and into it's historic place as "the asset that
represents my life's work and dreams". A premium that says, "My families efforts are worth more than a paper account in the bank that is lent out for the use of entities I do not know"!
Yes, BC, the change from this present system of debtors will bring $10,000 gold, at the least.

thanks for reading FOA

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 16:44
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
We will talk today. Have your coffee or tea and bring a clear mind, as we will think of oil and gold. Yes, we will think thoughts not spoken for simple persons.
Later I will post, then we will truly consider.
Today, I stood in the sand and looked for life in the heavens. But even the stars offer no life as a strong body and a full mind. It is a fine night for a man of small thought, for he can consider GOLD.
************************************************************

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 20:45
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
For those of simple thought, such as I, gold is good to own.
But, for those of need for reason, read from one who speaks to me:
The Cornering of Gold!
The final outcome of "Too Much Oil", "Too little Gold" and "Worldwide Digital Currencies".
For years the governments could create currency out of nothing. But, during the last eight years, the modern currency systems have taken the final step. As digital charges in a computer, they have become but "emotional thoughts" of trading value. This is to say, "a currency unit exists only during the moment of trade". During this time, when real things are in transit, paper currency has value as an expected "trade completion". It exists as a human thought. Complete the transaction and the thought is gone, the currency unit dies.
Think about it? If for a time the world commerce stopped. All would live from what they had for, say a week. During this week, all currencies and the debts that back them would not exist! Without trade, modern currencies have no use, no value, no purpose.
During our modern age, a currency can be anything. Corn, lamps, cars, tables, anything could be used as a concept for a digital currency. You see, it exists in concept only. Even gold could be used as modern money. The real item is not used, only the concept of "how it would be used during the transaction of commerce". "Real value is not needed for modern money, as it is only used as a trading unit"!
What does all of this have to do with oil and gold? For most people, nothing. But for some people, everything! You see, some persons do not want to hold an "operating business" and the present value that represents, as their wealth. Nor do they want to hold encumbered assets or debts of others. Wealth, to these people, is not represented by a "digital trading unit of commerce".
History has shown how many persons, or groups of persons, have tried and failed while trying to corner a commodity. Greed was always the factor, as acquiring real wealth to pass on to family or country was never the aim. Using paper currencies ( or debts of the same ) to purchase these commodities, always brought on the undoing of the scam. During some years, even gold was used as a purchasing unit, as gold was the currency of that time.
But, today we come to a different period, with a different factor and circumstance. For during no period of history has an entity used a commodity to corner another commodity! The intent is not to "corner", but the result will be the same. This action is coming about because of a gross, huge mismatch of the value of gold and oil! We are not talking about the price of these items ( in any currency ) . We speak of the total amount of physical gold, worldwide and the total amount of oil worldwide. During the last twenty years, the world has made oil an absolute necessity for life as we know it. During the same time, gold has been degraded to a "kind of commodity that we may need sometime but, I'm not sure". With the public, government and the business community holding these thoughts, it is easy to understand which item is needed first and which would be dumped. In this day, people would sell gold for oil, no contest!
Consider the amount of oil that is used daily. Consider the future value that this consumption places on reserves in the ground. Compare this to the amount of gold consumed daily. Notice I said "consumed daily", not "traded daily". Clearly, the consumption of oil compared to the consumption of gold places a much higher value on oil reserves than gold reserves. With no replacement for the use of oil ( at present to lower prices ) and no "needed" use for gold in today's thought, we have the ingredients for a mismatch in value of epic proportions!
The supply of oil was a problem in the 70s. Several nations actually cut off the supply to make a political point. Many thought that the "embargo" was an attempt at "cornering" the oil market. We may never know the true reasons for the large increase in the price of oil, but one thing is clear. The value of oil in today's economy is of far greater importance to maintaining present "asset values" than at any time in the past. Today, the future value of all commerce is "well bid" into every asset value! Without oil in good supply , at a currency price that allows a reasonable lifestyle, all assets would lose much relative value.
This "need" for supply is not lost to governments or their Central Banks. No single asset class or segment of the economy, by itself is more valuable than the supply of oil. This brings us back full circle, to the problem of "digital currencies" and the "mind set" of much of the simple ( and rich ) third world persons. To many of these people, wealth is the surplus of life's work that you pass on after death. Currency is something you, spend, trade or hold for a few years. It isn't wealth.
Gold ( and silver ) is "on the list", so to speak.
This same mindset creates a worry in the back of many a mind in the oil states. It is clear to most, that even a small amount of gold in the asset mix, makes one appear "less western" and therefore "less foolish" when the concept of value and currency are discussed. But, the problem has always been that oil is "so large" in relation to gold that any attempt to convert, even a portion of ones assets creates a distortion in the markets. Of further concern is that; everyone knows that western minds don't like or want gold, but if they think you like it they will trade it up in price for the sake of "sticking it to you".
Enter the world of "paper gold".
Yes, gold just like currencies has been "digitized". If you brought gasoline, made from oil sold under $20/bl, you are part of this system! For just as the "digital currencies" are created for trading only, paper gold was created for the trade of oil. In a very broad sense, it was created as an "extra" or "kicker" to allow the purchase of small amounts of cheap gold in return for a full supply of oil. In reality, this gold paper represents the future production of gold ( from the ground ) to balance the reserves of oil ( also in the ground ) . The huge amount of "paper gold" traded and outstanding today is now in excess of all the gold in existence above ground! In essence, it is of the same value as the currencies, "the thoughts of nations, blowing in the wind". The Central Banks gave value to this paper by selling and lending some of their gold stocks. But, as economies became hooked on cheap oil, and demanded more of the same, these same CBs had no choice but to use fractional reserve gold lending" to pump the gold market.
Now we approach the final act.
There is one oil state that no one will play for a fool. The CBs will sell all of their gold or the nations will nationalize all mines and operate them at a loss. One way or another, most of the paper gold market will be honored. Why? Because oil will bid for gold if they do not! We are not talking about an oil embargo or rising oil prices. Indeed, oil will become very cheap for those that can supply physical gold. This deal will not require the agreement of all oil states. Only one can start this, the others will gladly follow.
A large oil producer, with plenty of reserves and unused capacity, can say: We now value gold at $10, $20 or $30,000/oz.. That is the rate we will use to sell oil. We will go to "full" production and offer at $10.00us/bl.. Pay us in physical gold and USD ( or EUROs ) as a 50% mix to the above rate to equal $10/bl..
It would be a deal like none other! Oil, worldwide, would drop to $10.00/bl and every economy would do very well, IF they had gold. All gold would immediately be arbitraged to the above prices thereby creating a "world oil currency" large enough to handle oil. This creating of a new "specialized currency" will be the result of the first "commodity corner" that ever succeeded!
But what of the current currency/debt structure? We will cover that in a later article.
************************************************************
So, noble round table...how much of your worth will you wager on the merit of these THOUGHTS. Will the last twenty years be continued? Will you enter your GOLDEN years a pauper? Tell me not where your words are but where your wealth sits. Yes, alas poor gold (and silver) I know them well...

Put thou money where thou mouth is? This paper market has served me well...know when to hold and when to fold. BTW...a contrary THOUGHT here is, well, not tolerant1.

Away to watch gold....rocket...or... plummet. This world is damned to instant gratification and...soon, I fear...instant anguish. PMSP

Don't really buy into the oil thing but fiat currency is the greatest falsehood put upon people by governments...you just have to time the end of the "happy trails" to you! Do not "Bet your life" on when it ends.

Tom

Richard, Oregon (5/9/99; 16:46:45MDT - Msg ID:5818)
FOA - You're still here!

Richard,
Thank you for reading. Yes, I'm in and out for short reads. The world is offering a large plate of "political maneuvering" for us to digest! FOA

TYoung (5/9/99; 19:16:03MDT - Msg ID:5827)

Hello TYoung,
As one reads those Thoughts from a little over a year ago, can it now be explained "Why" the ECB and the BIS forced the agreement of gold into the Euro? Western political factions never thought the Euro would trade one to one against the dollar, much less higher than that ratio. Has some entity outside the European arena now given backing to the Euro? Who does hold so much of that gold paper? In time, my friend, we will all know not only where our wealth sits, but how well it sits. FOA

It seems to be a popularly held view that this latest action by the BOE was yet another in a string of official actions to give assistance to the institutions that are now caught on the short side of gold. I do not see it with that same perspective, and perhaps you might settle the score.

It seems that these hedge funds and others on the short side shall indeed be dealt with as may be required for the general integrity of what might be salvaged from the current financial system. But, it does not appear that they "call the tune" as so many others might suggest. Is it not moreso that the efforts are to settle--to the greatest possible extent--that side of the contracts on which we find the gold owners "concerned" by the apparent absence of their gold? Isn't it truly the "long" side that calls the tune...such is the power and majesty of gold over paper?

First of all, I sincerely do not want to offend in saying this. I believe you have much economic as well as world insight. I have long wondered about your motives for posting. I do believe you have some kind of inside knowledge that most of us here do not have. I have often wondered if your purpose could be to mislead in some way, or if you simply don't have all the pieces, although you clearly have many more pieces than the rest of us. I am now simply thinking you have pieces, but not all of them.

These are some of the inconsistencies in my head that I look to explain:
1. It does appear that the Saudi's may be re-aligning with Iran for defense, and moving away from the US. This would support a Middle-East re-alignment with the euro.
2. The price of oil was held down for 2 1/2 years, doing much damage to the US oil industry, and reducing our ability to respond to oil cartel pressures on price or supply. Also, with all the refinery fires, I feel that a US gasoline shortage is being currently set up. The US power structure appears to be orchestrating this component of what is unfolding. ie. US gasoline price hikes and potential shortages now unfolding appear to be orchestrated from the inside, not by the euro/BIS or the Middle East.
3. It appears that US/IMF/BIS/Euroland are all complicit together at the moment in holding the euro down and the US dollar up so as to make their currency exchanges from dollar to euro at best rates.
4. As far as I know, Euroland is a block of countries without much natural energy or gold in the ground.
5. The countries not in Euroland have a wealth of energy and gold in the ground.
6. I do agree it is logical that some oil nations are unhappy with US dollars and have insisted upon a gold payment, and this is a factor in what is going on.

As I have stated before,IMHO there is much too much that is not accounted for in BIS vs IMF hypothesis as the sole explanation for what is going on. A devaluation of the dollar and transition to the euro is only step 1.

Aragorn III (5/9/99; 20:21:23MDT - Msg ID:5830)
FOA (5/8/99;--Msg ID:5772)...thank you for this remarkable post


Aragorn III,
The BOE does want to help the LBMA to some extent. Politically the Central Bank must attempt to support them, after all look at who the Bullion banks are! I think it would be understood between these entities, that if England does run for the Euro at the expense of the dollar, these gold merchants are dead in the water. Yes, political favors will require BOE to offer gold, even if it is a drop in the bucket, but as a soldier will fire his last round in a lost battle, so will "The Bank" ship it's last ounce of gold. This is serious stuff and the Friday news shows just where
they are going.

True, the merchants are only the middle man in this "war of giants", but the US and it's dollar also need this market to function if they are to keep the paper gold longs from "wholesale" jumping ship also. Right now the big longs are balanced, if they lose contract delivery from a failing LBMA, it's made up in a soaring oil and gold price held through secure ECB commitments. They "called the tune" a long time ago when big money started supporting paper gold in dollar settlement. The gold market is now locked and has but to react to the shortage of physical gold priced in dollars. As we run out of major CBs that offer to unload gold, so does the dollar run out of time. The BOE may have been the last?

However, this ship is going to sink slowly if for no other reason than the IMF / dollar factions are still trying to save it. In this environment, investors (TYoung?) need patience and an un-leveraged position as this major act unfolds.
FOA

Chicken little or just being friendly?

LAST CHANCE TO BUY GOLD AT LOW

By Steven Jon Kaplan

Gold Mining Outlook www.goldminingoutlook.com.

5 p.m. EDT, Friday, May 7, 1999.

----------------

Buy more gold.

Although the Bank of England announced early Friday
morning that they are selling 415 of their 715 tonnes
of gold, this is likely to be one of the last major
gold sales by central banks. The worldwide recession
recovery, combined with a strong commodities rally,
leaves inflation on the rise, as epitomized by a huge
gap between short-term rates and long-term rates in
almost all developed economies.

This sale is thus equivalent to Fidelity Investments
deciding to sell shares in a very profitable company
with a high growth rate and a low P/E. Although such an
unloading would initially depress the price, especially
if some thought that Vanguard and Strong would follow
suit, it would have no effect on the company's
fundamentals, and would therefore be completely
reversed over a short period of time.

Similarly, the sale of gold by a particular entity does
not alter the relationship of the yellow metal in the
world financial system.

The Journal of Commerce commodities index, a reliable
indicator for many years, is displaying its highest
growth rate in more than 1-1/2 years.

Use the opportunity to buy gold when everyone else is
selling it. Already many shares have bounced from
extreme lows set during intraday trading. This is a
gift for those who feared they may have missed the
rally, or who were waiting for a pullback before
committing additional funds.

As I had said on the very day before the yellow metal
started its spring rally, the more that everyone else
is gloomy, the more that one should be buying gold with
both hands and both feet.

Usually I don't like to criticize financial analysts,
knowing how difficult it is to make financial
predictions. Special mention, however, must be given to
the gold gurus at Goldman Sachs, who issued a sell
recommendation on gold shares Friday morning almost at
the very minute that gold bottomed below $280. Not only
is this advice one very important day late, but any
clients who take them seriously would be selling at
what may well turn out to have been the last best
buying opportunity for many years. Perhaps they're
still a little hung over from their recent IPO party.

According to the latest survey from Market Vane,
bullish sentiment on the U.S. dollar is at an unusually
high level of 84 on a scale from 0 to 100. Even if it
were not for the record trade gap and the fact that
corporate insiders are heavily short the greenback
especially versus the Swiss franc, German deutschmark,
Japanese yen, and British pound sterling, this would be
reason enough to bet against the U.S. dollar. First, as
interest rates for bank CDs and money market funds
fell, people shifted their assets from safe investments
into the U.S. stock market. Then, as the recession hit
the third world, people shifted their investments from
emerging markets into the U.S. stock market. Now, as
the world is recovering from recession, rapid growth is
forcing up long-term interest rates worldwide. Thus,
bonds are collapsing, which -- you guessed it -- has
caused investors to sell bonds to put their money into
the U.S. stock market. Even if U.S. equities were not
already at hypereuphoric overvaluations, a combination
of rising inflation, increasing long-term interest
rates, and the ready alternative of equities around the
world with far superior growth rates and infinitely
lower P/E ratios will eventually induce a core of
intelligent investors to switch out of U.S. equities.

Do not wait for everyone else to act before you do, as
there will be a mad rush for the exits. The average
investor, thoroughly drunk on U.S. equities, is not
even aware that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury
is at its highest level since June 9, 1998. When
interest rates are high enough, some money leaves the
stock market for the bond market. In addition, higher
rates increase the costs of borrowing, lowering
corporate profits.

In a sign that the gold share market is returning from
the doldrums, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange announced
Monday that they are planning to launch a junior mining
sector later in the late summer of 1999. According to
Reuters News, "shares in resource companies listed in
Johannesburg have soared over the past six weeks on a
growing belief around the globe that bombed-out
commodity cycles were in line for a turnaround in the
next 12-18 months, spurred by a recovery in demand from
Asian economies."

-END-

Christine (5/9/99; 20:30:48MDT - Msg ID:5831)

Christine,
Thank you for reading and thinking out loud. This forum would be blank if we all saw the world through the same camera. No offense taken.

By your numbers:

1. Agree!

2. Partial agreement. At first, the falling oil prices (over many years during the 90s) was a shared goal by all. This included the US, Europe and most of the dollar world. I don't think the powers that drove this think like James Bond, but it could have been a dollar trap from the beginning. That is the current perception. Yes, the long effect was to damage the viability of the local US oil
industry, but again, they didn't intend to drive gold (and therefore oil) that low in the beginning. It was only after the dollar was trapped by paper gold that it needed ever lower physical prices to keep a chain reaction from spiking gold. This in turn drove the dollar higher in world markets
creating the asset bubble in America today. True, I do think the US players are sending out "readings" to the public to get them ready for higher oil prices and the price inflation that will create. However, they are being pushed in this direction by the reality of a changing dollar reserve system. The same reality created by the Euro
faction. NO, the refinery fires are a sad loss of accidental consequence.

3. Disagree! Recent history will dictate the animosity between the BIS and the US! Please don't take my word for it. Mr. Mosel (kitco) is well educated on this, ask him? Or, read up some of the 1960 / early 1970s money wars that were fought. Old bankers never forget!

4. True, and they have outlived America for how long? Great nations are made from great people, not resources. The US did not get where it's at because it had gold. Gold was delivered to this country (far more than was mined) to buy it's economic productivity.

5. Same answer.

6. Yes.

As Mr. Another would say " We watch this new gold market together, Yes?"! Christine, more will come to light and prove us not right or wrong, but observant.

FOA

Thanks All!

It has helped to clarify my thoughts on this matter, and two others beside. Thanks for your guidance as we watch these events unfold.

All, it was approximately six months ago that I cautioned the realm of national and international finance was not one that developed along tedious trends easy for all to see and anticipate. The big policy decisions come, instead, as "lightning in the night", and you will not know the night in advance. We have had our first gentle reminder. Perhaps it was fitting that it was I nearly struck by the BOE 'bolt from the blue as I stood on the threshold at that early hour last Friday. In this case, the announcement was a bright flash, but the thunderclap was scant more than a slammed door. How many more before the big one that signals the Storm of Change, none can say. Some may work in your favor, but do not "bet the farm" on such uncertain help. It is better to prepare your "storm shelter" while supplies last than to wait for the sale and get caught outside with naught but a parasol.

got gold?

Good evening, you are up late tonight.

It is my understanding that before the U.S. can sell gold, it must be approved by Congress. Is this correct? Does the
BOE have ath authority to deplete the gold reserves of England in such an underhanded way? Is there no voice of dissent in England?

n/aDoes anyone have the Market Vane figures for the US dollar for the previous three weeks? I would like to compare them vs SteveH's post yesterday. TIA.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials2.html FOA's message 5834 replied "Recent history will dictate the animosity between the BIS and the US!" to Christine's
5831: "It appears that US/IMF/BIS/Euroland are all
complicit together..."

According to Dennis Birch's Resource Stock Digest, Feb.
1998:
"A definite coolness exists between the BIS and the United
States. This goes back to the Bretton Woods Conference
in 1944, held to set up the machinery for resuming world
business after WWII. Even though this conference
established the gold-backed US dollar as the only reserve
currency, the US did everything it could to torpedo the BIS
and give sole power to the US sponsored IMF..."

There is more at Gold-Eagle (see The Sting & Ponzi Scheme! - Dennis Birch at the above link). I don't know if
this is the same content as the Feb. 1998 Digest (which I
can't seem to find any more)

You asked: Does the BOE have ath authority to deplete the gold reserves of England in such an underhanded way? Is
there no voice of dissent in England?

There was a post at Kitco, on Sun. (possibly Sat.) which reprinted a news article claiming that their is dissent in the Parliment, I believe. I would post a url but I can't get over to Kitco right now. As I read the article, I remember thinking that such dissent could come in quite handy and act to cancel the auction.

Ole Harry has learned to never argue with an insider. If FOA predicts $10K gold
then it enters the realm of the possible. With the Au I already have and a
proportional move in Ag I would be a millionaire. BFD. What would a $10k gold
world be like? Just what gut wrenching economic dislocations would we have
to go through?

I have accumulated Au/Ag for three reasons:
1. Y2k - I fear the worst and I have 20+ years from programming to Data
Base Administrator to back up my convictions. I want something
of value on the other side to rebuild with.
2. The US Government - I like having my assets under my control and not
known to the government or spouses. I however am not an idiot.
I have left instructions on location and disposal to a trusted sibling
half a continent away.
3. Leverage - At some point Au/Ag will explode in value ahead of the Y2K
panic. Some of my stash will come out of their hidey holes to buy
more supplies.

On the way to $10k gold, item number three is most important to me. My concern
is that along with $10k gold will be $50 cans of soup. Another thought to ponder:
if you can make 30 times your money on internet stock and have to talk of an
excessive profits tax, then why would that type of return in Au be different?
Such thoughts to ponder when my mind is focused on a certain creek.
Only four more weeks!

Harry (I will sell no penicillin before its time) Lime

FOA Thanks for your thinking on oil, I was guessing along that theme.

Unless I am missing the point, Gold is not going up to 10,000 an ounce. The dollar is coming down to 10,000 per ounce of Gold.
As for using Gold for barter, most of my weekly trips to the food market cost over 1/4 ounce of Gold. Maybe after the revolution ( bloodless I hope ) the same 1/4 ounce will buy 2 or 3 weeks worth of food. If oil ( gas ) is in short supply 1 trip every 2 or 3 weeks may be a luxury.
It is late el

$282.00. Still London price.

US Mint sale of gold and silver from beginning of year MONTH
ONE) HALF QUARTER TENTH TOTAL
( oz./#coins)
JANUARY 208,500 / 208,500 15,500 / 31,000 18,000 / 72,000 39,000 / 390,000 281,000 / 701,500
FEBRUARY 79,500 / 79,500 19,500 / 39,000 18,000 / 72,000 27,000 / 270,000 144,000 / 460,500
MARCH 184,500 / 184,500 18,000 / 36,000 18,000 / 72,000 48,500 / 485,000 269,000 / 777,500
APRIL 126,500 / 126,500 5,000 / 10,000 11,000 / 44,000 18,500 / 185,000 161,000 / 365,500
MAY 18,500 / 18,500 0 / 0 500 / 2,000 1,000 / 10,000 20,000 / 30,500


Silver

MONTH ONE
( oz./#coins)
JANUARY 1,195,000 / 1,195,000
FEBRUARY 149,000 / 149,000
MARCH 718,000 / 718,000
APRIL 716,000 / 716,000
MAY 0 / 0

Conclusion: lower shipments as time progresses, especially for gold. Meaning? Because I don't know the demand side. We should be hearing about gold shortages of US Eagles if demand is greater than supply.

Bought by an European Bank. See Bloomberg Web Page for details.
<;-)
(did I scoop you Townie?)

Even with the independence of the BOE, it does surprise me that gold may so easily be mobilized from the UK Treasury without much necessary blustering and official business by Parliment. I cannot cite for you the U.S. statute that blocks this level of "freedom" without a Congressional act, but I shall investigate. Perhaps another poster has the answer and is now poised at the keyboard?

el St. One,
you are good to recognize that $10,000 gold is built greatly upon the mathematics of a dollar value that is diminished in regard to all things. But while prices will rise proportionally for bread, and wine, and cheese as their function and importance remains as they ever have been, the price for gold will rise in a much greater proportion. This comes with the understanding that while today gold is viewed (and priced) by many as only an "extra" in the play, gold will be seen to play a leading role tomorrow. This changing role will redefine its value by more than the price calculated from a weaker dollar. A day in the Sun for goldhearts, to be sure.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19990510/bs/banking_republic_1.htmlThanks, Gangie, here's the story.

Richard, Oregon (5/9/99; 17:18:18MDT - Msg ID:5820)
Hi, Richard.

I don't worry too much about the future. The future seems to always take care of itself. I try to focus on the here and now. Kind of like steering a big ship. You have to be aware of what's coming up a mile or so ahead so you can have enough time to steer the boat away from trouble. But the real important considerations -- adequate fuel, no leaks, a working radio, staying on course -- are what you have control over now, so take care of them.

I plan to hang on to the few gold coins I have to the very end. They'll be the last to go.

You mentioned: "I find it hard to believe, at this point, that the US would do anything to encourage the use of the Euro over the $."

If oil settlement switches to Euros and the dollar declines significantly (FOA: 5/9/99; 15:40:38MDT - Msg ID:5814), I assume we'll (as a country) be forced to buy Euros to pay for oil - at least imported oil. Over the years, other countries around the world have been forced to use US$ to one degree or another, and have even had their economies seriously damaged because of the US dollar's liabilities.

At the same time, strong nationalistic sentiments in the US will probably fuel strong resistance to the idea of adopting the Euro as an official currency. But the realities of economic pressures and the collision of unexpected events can force people to do things they'd rather not do. For example: Who would have thought a few of years ago that we'd impeach a president for lying about sex?

I keep seeing more and more news stories extolling the virtues of one-world government, and one common currency. Most recently the news story posted here (5/6/99) about the Bilderbergers meeting in June. Here's the quote about their goals taken from that news story:

"The agenda for the meeting is said to include a 'globilization summit', during which nations which cling tenaciously to their sovereign identities will be denounced by its leadership. The principal feature of Bilderberg is that it seeks one global government, (a structure similar to the European Union), while counteracting nationalist sentiment is supposedly its greatest battle. Renewed calls for the United Nations to be able to directly tax all people of the world is said to be another major topic to be tabled for discussion in Sintra."

The Bilderbergers includes some of the most powerful people on the planet.

It may not be right around the corner, but looking ahead, the Euro as U.S. currency might not seem too far fetched.

Thanks. BC

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990510/wl/yugoslavia_395.htmlTaken from a Monty Python skit? "...our maps simply did not show the Chinese embassy anywhere in that vicinity"

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990510/wl/yugoslavia_390.htmlMore war stories...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_337000/337802.stmOdd, to offer this on the day of the UK Treasury announcement.

Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.

Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.

Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.

Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.

My apologies for the multiple post - local difficulties.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/your_money/newsid_339000/339873.stmIs the market a sure thing when even the pros can't get it right?

Britian seems to stand alone:
The 11 countries which adopted the euro have grown increasingly happy about the new currency since its introduction, while most businessmen in European countries outside EMU wished they had signed up to its launch.

MARKET ANALYSIS (5/10/99): Gold continued to weather the aftershocks of the
Bank of England's (BOE) gold auction announcement last week while the rest of the
markets geared up for what might be some pretty dicey U.S. inflation numbers toward the
end of the week. Economists surveyed by CBS warns that we could see a PPI number as
high as .5% and CPI at .4% as rising oil prices begin to effect the pricing of other goods
and services. The dollar is down in early trading against most major currencies this
morning, including the British pound. We will be watching the pound closely in the weeks
ahead as priced in both the dollar and gold. If recent history is an indicator, the pound could
be in for a rough ride. Historically gold sales have been a precursor to currency weakness.
The resumption of gold's decline followed an uneventful, but restless night overseas. Asia
weighed in on the quiet side. London traded sideways with an eye toward the COMEX
open. A U.S. Treasury spokesman quoted by Reuters said that the United States is not
thinking about selling any of its 261 million ounce gold reserve.

Mitsui's Andy Smith offers the following insight which offers a possible tie into the BOE
announcement:

"The exit of several famous but now dis-illusioned interbank players from the stadium and
the relegation of others to the cheaper seats (ostensibly for a more focussed view) raise the
question: can this 'beautiful game' for producers continue (tight spreads, intense
competition on hedging service from banks)? Watch for yellow cards on credit lines to
miners? Teamed with new derivative accounting rules coming into play this summer (from
the Financial Accounting Standards Board -- FASB, making the pass through from options
to P&L swings more obvious) the transfer to 'plain vanilla' hedge structures could be
accelerated."

Smith's observations were published in his Monthly (April 99) Precious Metals' Report
well before the BOE announcement. Could the BOE announcement be tied to settling hedge
and derivative accounts before the new FASB rules go into effect? We are beginning to see
an international trend toward accounting for derivative gains and losses on P&L statements
instead of carrying them at cost. This could have a major impact on financial institution
balance sheets, thus the concern. Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal reburied to square the books before these rule take effect? There is no way of
knowing for sure of course, but I am certain we are going to see all sorts of explanations
for this ill-timed auction by the Bank of England and I wouldn't shelve this one without
some careful consideration as at least one of the reasons for BOE's surprise action. (By the
way, I do not buy the proposition that the auction is a means to preparing the British
finances for entrance into the European Union. Once the sale is taken into account, UK will
have less than 10% of its reserves in gold while the rest of the EU has about 30% of its
reserves in gold -- if various published reports on reserve holdings are to be believed.
These sales, and most particularly the press release issued by the British central bank itself,
reveal the picture of a financially weakened Britain, and one that could not pull its weight in
the EU.)

More later.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

Today's Report has supportive links which do not show up at the FORUM. Please go to the Daily Market Report if you want to follow the links.

Also, the sentence:

"Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal reburied to square the books before these rule take effect?"

Should read:

Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal "required" to square the books before these rule take effect?

Although I must say that "reburied" also works, since this metal will never see the light of day.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_339000/339865.stmSame to be expected in U.S.? Could be...
Of course, you can expect them to say that if oil is ignored, everything is fine.

Anyone feel like analysing this one?

FOCUS-Central bankers see global economic upturn
09:08 a.m. May 10, 1999 Eastern
By Alice Ratcliffe BASLE, Switzerland, May 10 (Reuters) - Central bankers from major countries agreed on Monday that the global financial crisis seemed to have abated amid more upbeat growth forecasts,

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said.

Strong growth in North America and an Asian upturn should help the global economy stabilise this year and grow around two percent, he told reporters after a meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 (G10) with some other countries attending.

``The global financial crisis appears to have eased as expectations about future growth have improved,'' the German central bank chief said.

``That does not mean that all things are under control, but after months of successive downward revisions, the consensus forecast for global growth in 1999 has now stabilised around two percent,'' he added.

Central bankers from China, Australia, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia joined the G10 for their regular monthly meeting at the Bank for International Settlements in Basle.

Tietmeyer said improved expectations for North America were the main reason for the more optimistic outlook that has emerged after the worst global crisis since World War Two.

``Behind that (consensus) is especially the improved expectation for North America, with the growth clearly above three percent expected for this year,'' he said. Australia and New Zealand should also grow above three percent, he added.

Contrary to earlier forecasts, some Asian countries also seemed to be rebounding, so overall prospects were looking up.

``All in all we see the situation now a little bit better,'' Tietmeyer said.

But he stressed that Europe still needed to press ahead with structural reforms, Japan had to address underlying problems

``despite some better short-term outlook'' and crisis-hit emerging markets had to continue the reform process.

In this situation, stability had to be the key element for monetary policy, Tietmeyer said.

``Of course we discussed what monetary policy can do in this context. We all agreed monetary policy has to contain monetary stability. That is the point.''

Tietmeyer did not specifically address concerns in financial markets that brisk U.S. growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating and spawning inflationary pressure.

The central bankers in Basle also discussed developments on stock and bond markets and noted with satisfaction that borrowing costs for emerging-market countries were coming down.

``Especially we have realised -- which is important for the financial flows to the emerging markets -- that spreads for the emereging markets are coming down, have already come down, and (that) is a positive development,'' he said.

On other subjects, Tietmeyer said no central banks present had announced any plans to sell gold in the wake of Britain's surprise news last week it would gradually liquidate more than half its gold reserves.

``We are all of the opinion gold will remain in future an important reserve asset for central banks,'' Tietmeyer said.

Joining the growing rank of official sellers, Britain's Treasury said it would cut its gold reserves to 300 tonnes from the present 715 tonnes.

The G10 comprises Belgium, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States, as well as Switzerland.

Let me try to get this sentence right:

"Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal 'required' to square the books before these rule take effect?"

Should read:

Could the BOE gold sale be providing physical
metal "required" to square the books before these rules take effect?

Oh boy.......

Since Fridays announcement of BOE Gold sales I have been trying to figure out,what the Bank of England would receive in equitable payment for their Gold,if the sale is indeed consummated.
I am reminded of FOA's famous statement:
Even the well written history of paper money, with all it's chronicled destruction cannot convince modern man that Gold can and will fully demoney paper! In our present lifetime.

So the question is,if you were the treasurer of The Bank of England what would you take as an equitable exchange for your Gold?
They may take Euro's, they may take U.S.$ or they may take a combination of both. I think the world knows these currencies will lose purchasing power in the future due to inevitable inflation which has historically accompanied paper money.
As FOA suggested, an extremely valuable future asset is, "oil in the ground".That may be a good trade,(back to oil for Gold)
However,in my opinion,and I hope I'm wrong,the trade is for the fruits of the workers labor.Taxation,with Governments working hand in hand with world Bankers is slowly going to put ALL assets under the control of the Banks and Governments. Non-private ownership of assets is slavery!!!
Lets give a Websters Dictionary meaning of a slave:
A person who has lost control of himself and is dominated by something or someone.
Lets ask ourselves,do we know anyone that is dominated by our present paper monetary system? It's called,bills,bills,bills.
Again in my very humble opinion,ownership of untaxed Gold or the equivalent,whatever that might be,is liberty-another name our forefathers used for freedom!!
Sorry MK for coming on so strong,but I think this had to be said...........beesting

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744611.htmlThis tends to reaffirm what many have suspected.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/v0.htmlCurrency and the state of affairs.

The headline news may well be how well silver is holding up. Are the white metals going to part company with their brother? I always liked silver better than gold as it can do anything gold can do and then some. It is curious though how the comex silver stocks seems stuck in the 75 to 80 mil range. The silver stocks are actually advancing today. Maybe some of the speculative interest in gold will transfer to silver. Any significant speculative accumulation of silver is going to exacerbate the short supply of silver that already exists - IMHO.

The article you posted shows the growing rift in G-7 between Britain and the United States on one hand and Continental Europe on the other. Japan vascillates between the two. The statement below by Mr. Tietmeyer is an attempt to diplomatically let the world know that British/American position on the gold question is not necessarily the position of the rest of G-7. Don't forget the British press has repeatedly tried to use the BOE sale as an occasion to sell the idea of other central banks liquidating their gold as well. Misery loves company.

I am surprised that Tietmeyer's statement was direct and unequivocal -- no room for misinterpretation there. He obviously wanted the world to know where Germany stood.

The quote I reference above:

"On other subjects, Tietmeyer said no central banks present had announced any plans to sell gold in the wake of
Britain's surprise news last week it would gradually liquidate more than half its gold reserves.

`We are all of the opinion gold will remain in future an important reserve asset for central banks,' Tietmeyer
said."

New York-May 10-FWN--Gold futures took another tumble
here today, as heavy stop-loss selling was triggered in a
continued reaction to Friday's news that the United Kingdom
is planning to reduce its gold holdings by more than half.
Not even favorable comments from German Bundesbank President
Hans Tietmeyer could help the metal right itself.

June gold earlier today tumbled as far as $276.50,
meaning it had lost $14.70 since the high of $291.20 last
Thursday. For the day, the contract fell $5.30 to
$278.40.
The big impetus came Friday when the U.K. Treasury said
it was reallocating its reserves and would reduce its gold
holdings to 300 tons from 715 over the next few years,
moving into foreign-exchange assets instead.

"That's still the the main obstable right now," said
Richard Padron, director of research at Concorde Trading
Group, adding that low prices from Friday's sell off did not
spark much demand in Asia earlier today. "So the news
lingering from last week and the lack of buying interest
this morning gave it another leg to the downside."
The U.K. announcement was a setback to the market that
was in the process of recovering from worries about
potential International Monetary Fund and Swiss sales.
Officials in several countries have since made gold-
supportive comments, including Tietmeyer.

"It was reported that Tietmeyer said other ECB
(European Central Bank) countries would not be selling
gold," said Patrick Magilligan, vice president with
Prudential Securities. "Despite that, the market picked up
where we left on Friday.
"We quickly tested Friday's lows of $280.30 in the
June. We bounced off there once, but the next time went
right through it. And once we went below that, there were a
lot of stops."

According to news reports, after a Group of 10 meeting
in Switzerland, Tietmeyer was quoted as saying: "We are all
of the opinion gold will remain in the future an important
reserve asset for central banks."

Magilligan commented that the June futures appear to be
trying to hold around the $278 level, but he would not be
surprised if they retested the $276 area by the end of the
week.
Magilligan put initial support for June gold at today's
low of $276.50.
Below this, Padron put support around $271. This is
around the low of $271.60 that a weekly chart shows for the
front month back in August.
"When that number was hit, we bounced off it pretty
good," said Padron. "Within two weeks, we went up to around
$297, and in two or three weeks after that, we broke above
$300. We haven't been above that since, but some buying was
spurred down in that the $271 range."

While the U.K. gold sales will be spread over a few
years--and the planned 125 tons to be sold yet in this
fiscal year will be sold over several months--Padron noted
the market may be factoring in the entire amount at once.
"When you get it all factored in and get down to a
pretty attractive level, it could spur some buying," he
continued. "So it'll be interesting to see in the next few
days and weeks if the same pattern holds that we had back in
August."
Padron put resistance at $282. Magilligan listed $285,
then $288 to $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

WAC Are you having the same problem posting as I am? In retrospect my post show up at the time I post, but they do not appear when sent. I usually have to wait till the next day to proof read what was posted. If anyone else has had this problem, and corrected it, please educate me. el

That post appeared instantly el

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_337000/337685.stmHot air on demand! This article is a prime example for USAGOLD's 5868 post, and the comment: "Don't forget the British press has repeatedly tried to use the BOE sale as an occasion to sell the idea of other central banks liquidating their gold as well. Misery loves company."

Click this BBC link to see the single most anti-gold article I have ever encountered in mainstream press. It touches on every point of the Gold-Shorter's Dogma.

MY red face post did not appear instantly, so I am wondering what I did different. Any hints, anyone.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_340000/340310.stmThis offering from the BBC provides better balance than the prior abomination. No bias here, folks!

I always enjoy the scholarly discussion here, so thank you all. There is one aspect of gold that gets short shrift and I want to again address it. Security of physical possession is the topic.

I just returned fron a week long police swat sniper course. I am even more concerned now, after having been with these people at very close quarters. The talk is of forfeiture and headshots, the attitude is "us" versus the rest of the world. There is no consideration for morals, oaths of office, or the "right" thing to do. It is COMPLETELY military in attitude and technique. Former SEALs taught the course.

My point is about the attitude of the USG towards privacy of thought, deed and possessions. We do not "own" anything in this country. The State allows us to retain certain thoughts and items subject to taxation, permitting and compliance.

Do not misunderstand me - I believe that gold is the only alternative we small people have in this world.

When the price of gold rises, the USG will either confiscate it by force or by taxation at the time of sale. I emplore all here to consider what lengths they will go to when this event transpires. Thank you.

Sorry for all this trial and error. My first post okay, 2nd and 3rd have not appeared. I am trying this by posting on yesterdays screen. el

My 4th post did no appear. Sooooooo I am back asking for suggestions.

Have heard the name of the Bilderbergers mentioned here and other places. What does this represent? I did not believe much in this new world order business, but as with Christine, I have come to the conclusion that it is a real possibility. I used to believe strongly in our government and believed they really did have the best interest of the American People at heart.

In 1969 at the height of the cold war I spent several weeks in Poland, East Germany, and other countries behind the Iron Curtain. Being young at the time I very cleary learned that freedom is something very special. Especially seeing the fear that those people lived in. For me, it is a very sad awarness that today our government (especially liberalism) really doesn't give a damn about us. YOU ARE STUPID AND LET THE GOVERNMENT TAKE CARE OF YOU is their motto. To many people are ready to accept this.

I do agree that owning gold inhances individual freedom.

The Bilderbergers? An extension of Clinton or is he one of them?

Aragorn III & Tomcat. Thanks for your response.

After you post, if it is not there, hit your reload button.

Voyager, this may interest you (and others) --------

here is an edited version of

THE HOFFMAN WIRE

May 6, 1999

Bilderberg Demands Media Secrecy

The world's most secret society is to meet in Portugal in June.
Bilderberg, one of the most secretive organisation in the
world,comprising presidents, royal families, ministers, top
industrialists and financial leaders are set to meet in Sintra,
Portugal at the beginning of June. Francisco Pinto Balsam�o, former
Portuguese PM, media baron and frequent attendee of the meetings is
listed as the member for Portugal. The security for the Bilderberg
meetings, which are held at irregular intervals and prompted by the
state of world affairs, is the responsibility of the host country.
According to sources in Washington, Bilderberg will pay hundreds of
thousands of dollars to reimburse the Portuguese government for
deploying military forces to guard their privacy and for helicopters
to seek out intruders. Bilderberg have ordered the resort to be shut
down for a full 48 hours before the conference. The Bilderberg
delegates, comprising some of the world's most powerful decision
makers, will be here to discuss highly classified issues which are
not supposed to be disclosed to the public by the press, before or
after the meeting.

Initially alerted to this meeting by a New York reader who requested
anonymity, The News contacted the Caesar Park Penha Longa resort in
Sintra to verify the information that the secret meeting will be held
at their resort. The only confirmation we received was that an
organization 'wishing for the utmost privacy' would be in Sintra and
that the hotel was fully and exclusively booked by this organisation
from June 2 to June 7.

The agenda for the meeting is said to include a "globilaztion
summit", during which nations which cling tenaciously to their
sovereign identities will be denounced by its leadership. The
principal feature of Bilderberg is that it seeks one global
government, (a structure similar to the European Union), while
counteracting nationalist sentiment is supposedly its greatest
battle. Renewed calls for the United Nations to be able to directly
tax all people of the world is said to be another major topic to be
tabled for discussion in Sintra. Bilderberg meetings are only held
when and where the hosts can provide the highest levels of security
for their guests. All Bilderberg participants, their staff members
and resort employees will wear photo identification tags. They will
have separate colours to identify the wearer as participant, staff
member or employee. A computer chip "fingerprint" will assure the
identity of the card's wearer.

According to the Washington based investigative newsletter,
Spotlight, who claims to have a contact inside Bilderberg, any
intruders are to be manhandled, cuffed and jailed and if the
intruders resist arrest or attempt to flee, they will be shot.
International and national media are said to be welcome only when an
oath of silence has been taken, news editors are held responsible if
any of their journalists 'inadvertently' report on what takes place.

Bilderberg members are immune to all forms of bureaucracy that face
ordinary citizens on a daily basis. No visas are required and a free
and safe passage is provided by the government providing the
Bilderberg rendezvous. They travel to and from the airport to the
resort in armoured vehicles with a police escort. Meetings are held
annually but rarely at the same locations for obvious security
reasons. The first Bilderberg conference was held at the Bilderberg
Hotel in Osterbeek Holland in May 1954, and the organization is said
to have been established as a secret and supportive wing of NATO and
the Marshall plan which was launched in the 1940s.

The News having researched various sources on the Bilderberg
meetings, discovered that PSD co-founder, Francisco Pinto Balsem�o,
allegedly attended at least the previous two Bilderberg meetings held
in Scotland (1998) and Georgia in the United States (1997). Balsem�o
is said to be the only Portuguese representative on the Bilderberg
steering committee. Other prominent figures listed to have attended
previous meetings are Ricardo Salgado chief executive officer at
Banco Espirito Santo, Henry Kissinger, Tony Blair (who attended the
meeting held in 1995) and Giovanni Agnelli who is the owner of the
Fiat Motor Corporation.

The News (Portugal) May 1, 1999. The News is Portugal's largest
circulation English language newspaper. Established for over 20
years, it is the only Portuguese newspaper on the net that covers all
the major news about Portugal in the English language.
http://www.the-news.net/

-----------------

Tony Gosling tony@gaia.org
www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Congress/7727/
www.ecovillages.org/uk/network/index.html
www.oneworld.org/tlio/

Common origin of NATO, EU, World Bank & IMF
www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Congress/7727/bildist/#The

All sorted chat monitored: http://jya.com/stoa-atpc.htm

I was watching one of those evening political talk shows the other night and the moderator was interviewing an ex-colonel in the U.S. army and Winston Churchill's son. Mr. Churchill was very vocal about NATO (read the United States) sending ground troops into Kosovo to get the "job done." The colonel retorted: "If the British want to supply the ground troops, we'll provide all the cover you'll need." More and more, people in the United States are questioning the nature of this new relationship between the United States and Britain. I know I am. This last attempt to pry loose IMF gold (enlisting the agreement of the Clinton administration) has made me extremely suspicious. And then they return to Britain after the IMF meeting and quickly mobilize their own reserves because they got shut down by G-7? What's going on here? I am also extremely suspicious about all the drum pounding on "NATO" ground troops in Kosovo. I agree with the colonel. If it means that much to you, get the British people to do the dirty work. We'll provide the air and sea cover. I don't think the British people would be all that eager to fight for Kosovar human rights. I want to say to all my British friends as well as the UK citizens who post here, that I have nothing against the British people. I just wonder what your government is up to under Tony Blair.

A couple of critical points from recent posts:

jinx44 (5/10/99; 13:58:25MDT - Msg ID:5875) ---
"When the price of gold rises, the USG will either confiscate it by force or by taxation at the time of sale. I emplore all here to consider what lengths they will go to when this event transpires."

HLime (5/10/99; 4:01:36MDT - Msg ID:5841)
What World $10k gold?
"If you can make 30 times your money on internet stock and have to talk of an excessive profits tax, then why would that type of return in Au be different?"

INDEED! What is our exit strategy, and will we have a chance to execute it? Questions that loom ever larger in my mind, even while contemplating greatly increased PM valuations. Will the government figure a way to steal it, tax it into oblivion, or otherwise make it impossible to redeem the fruits of one's efforts and patience? We may see 10K gold, but will it mean anything (to us personally, that is)?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/7u.htmlA rally upon flamingo legs

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 10--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $5.30 at $278.40 per
ounce, extending Friday's massive losses and plunging to a contract low of
$276.50 early in the session. Gold slumped on continued fallout from the
announcement Friday that the UK Treasury plans to sell more than half of its
gold reserves. Over the past 2 trading sessions, Jun gold has lost $12.3, or
4.2% as a result of the UK news.

On continuation charts, Jun gold had fallen to its lowest level in just over
8 months. Traders said that Jun's dip below $280 support spurred nervous
across-the-board selling. "Dealers in particular were shooting for sell stops
and they found them. It was like a house of cards and fell apart," said one
trader. He noted that Jun managed to scramble off its lows as those same dealers
"bought it back." After high volume early trade, gold then "did very little"
through the end of the session, said another trader.

Comforting noises this morning from the Germany's Bundesbank President Hans
Tietmeyer that the Group of 10 have not made any new decisions to sell gold
failed to lend support to the gold price, said traders.
"The confidence of the market was not reassured by Tietmeyer's statements,"
said James Steel, analyst at Refco. "The statements have not stanched the
selling effort that's begun since the UK's statement," he said. Pointing out
that the UK news was the latest in a series of negative official sector
developments, following sale proposals from the International Monetary Fund
sales and Swiss National Bank. "Traders are simply wary that there'll be more
official sector selling," he said.

He said that Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission commitment of
traders report for COMEX gold futures failed to inspire any
confidence because it "implies the longs are in weaker hands." Long positions
held by small as opposed to large traders climbed to 18.4% in the week ending
May 4 from the 14.5% seen in the previous week.

Yet more negatives for gold today came in the form of news Yugoslav troops
have started to pull out of Kosovo.
While the situation remains unclear, as a "safe-haven" investment, gold
typically benefits during times of political turmoil.
"When the political turmoil is over, people are saying let's redouble our
efforts in going short," said one trader, although he noted this was a
background issue compared to fears of central bank sales.

Statements today by Federal Reserve vice chair Alice Rivlin, voicing doubts
that a US inflation pickup is imminent put another nail in gold's
coffin. Gold is typically regarded as a hedge against inflation and tends to
start rising in price when inflation concerns escalate.
"There's just a complete lack of confidence in this market," said one trader,
noting things were looking better last week when Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan was "using the I-word" for inflation and bonds
were selling off. He said that gold has now broken through key levels and
there's not much hope for it. "Why buy it?" he questioned.
However, despite today's big slide, some "good sized bids" were coming in
towards the close, said one trader, noting that gold steadied, albeit at lower
levels, as the session wore on.

Nevertheless, gold has been "dealt a pretty good blow" said one trader,
noting that if the price plunge does not spur some bargain hunting in the price
sensitive countries of Asia, such as India the outlook will be "pretty bleak."

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $278.4, dn $5.3; RANGE: $283.4-276.5

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

While international cooperation is expected, there is a degree of coziness between D.C. and Britain that has me scratching my head. You may be confident that I am scanning the headlines for the first indicator of one taking steps to annex the other. There is something not right, methinks...

I was away from this forum for about an hour, upon returning I failed to receive recent post. Some of the missing I had seen earlier. Most recent now is Msg #5868. To further this can of worms, I jumped back to Sunday posts, when I again looked at todays posts, 2 more recent appeared thru Msg #5870, but this is over an hour old. HELP el

I'm sitting here typing and watching CNBC's report about China and their protests asking for blood. It seems the government in China has been showing its people nothing in reguards to why Clinton is bombing Kosovo. The scary part in there story was the report of people wanting blood for the destruction of their Embassy. If I were China how would I attack the US? Why economically of course. It would be the only way to get back at the US without actually starting a war. Anyone know any other ways? Computer virus? Dollar reserve selloff? Comments?

How about todays gold prices? Wow what a buyers market, come one come all to the Britain Going out of Buisiness Sale. Come get it cheap..Sale to the lowest bidder.

from an earlier post:

"While the situation remains unclear, as a 'safe-haven' investment, gold
typically benefits during times of political turmoil.
'When the political turmoil is over, people are saying let's redouble our
efforts in going short,' said one trader, although he noted this was a
background issue compared to fears of central bank sales."

Doesn't he or she realize that gold is not acting as normal. Where has he or she been? It seems clear to me that we have a tug-a-war here. The stakes are higher than a mud puddle, though. Currently the gold short camp has the ribbon closer to their territory, but the gold longs are consolidating and starting to pull by the numbers. Heave-ho, one...two...three...pull. The game is in slow motion but tomorrow will show the ribbon heading back into home territory. The battle for the ribbon will pull the shorts through the mud, ultimately as the market will win, today or tomorrow, it will win and so will we. Pull...pull...pull.

This market is unlike all others (not that I would know this, being a relative neophyte) but my intuition is strong and its says, gold will go higher. All this talk of an uncertain market means that the rules have changed. The trigger has not been pulled on behalf of higher gold. When it goes, the shorts will be running for the exits. So judge it not like before ye trader above because it is doing the opposite of what you say.

June gold is now...$278.60.

$279.20, asking $279.30. Upper 60-minute bollinger is $282.50 and will likely meet gold around $281.00. Then we should see a narrowing of bands and a direction of breaking out, hopefully up. (of course, this is in a normal market. "Doctor, what is normal?")

As we get closure to rise in the POG, exit strategies become very important; especially to those whose families haved experienced man's wrath. Here are some thoughts.

Another, in his many posts, stressed that gold was not an investment (which needed an exist strategy) but rather is wealth itself and holding gold preserves one's wealth. In preparation for rough times one has to decide if one is investing and needing an exit strategy or if one is preserving one's wealth (which means one will most likely not exchange one's gold).

One big advantage of gold over silver is that in an emergency it can be transported, hidden/stored easily; silver is much to heavy for emergency transport in large quantities.

I do not believe silver will be confiscated. Personally, I plan to use silver for exchange purposes and to use gold for wealth preservation (pass it on to my kids).

What if gold hoarding becomes illegal? Will you turn yours in? You have to decide now what you will do with your gold and then have the courage to carry our your convictions.

I believe a balanced survival/prosperity strategy would include: Gold, Silver, and barter items that fit in with your values.

If you are an investor at heart, and you want to play on the gold field, then you must have a realistic exit strategy that is as sound as gold itself. Consider collectors' gold. It is not a guaranteed out but it might help.

I always appreciate your price updates, but it is your occasional decision to post that really makes you shine!

Thanks for yet another good one.

This must be the end of the end of the Great Gold Giveaway. I normally am content to methodically roll excess earnings into Gold coins (I'm officially a weakling for MK's selection of european pre-33's -- like little works of art at near-bullion prices.) But suddenly I am struck with the feeling that the current price of Gold in not only way too low (as it ever has been since the early-mid eighties,) but that it is UNNATURALLY low in a sense that gives new meaning to the word 'unnatural.' I find myself (gasp!) actually thinking about arranging a purchace now, financed against future earnings. My, my... taking out a small, innocent loan to buy Gold. What EVER am I thinking? I simply look back to the growing strength in price prior to the BOE announcement, and I know that this is not much more than a short-term gift.

By the way--Tomcat--I told you I'd let you know what I thought of my Belgian Gold francs when they arrived. They are here, and very nice! Good, solid, stately coins. A nice complement to the others in the Franc Family. MK actually DOES have good taste. (There is no beating the French Roosters, though!) ---Aristotle

Peter, Gandalf, and Aristotle, Aragorn and the rest...are you awake? $279.50. Bottom bounce time again.

I ask, "What would make the rise in gold inevitable?"

I can only think of a few things, but whatever they are or it is, it would have to be known by everyone and be as big a suprise as the BOE announcement. So I will start the list, priority not important until the list is done. Then let's assign priorities in order of liklihood. Here is a start:

Large country announces sale of US bonds.
Large CB annoucnes purchase of 450 tons of gold.
Three back to back months of inflation indices.
Y2K gold and silver coin shortage that make local TV stations in US.
Internet email alerting all email folks that Gold is about to rise and be correct.
Large CB announce gold sale and the price rises $10.00
One or more of the above at the same time.
All of the above over time.

Your turn:

I once developed the same problem you are having, and the only way I could get the updated USAGOLD pages to download was to empty my browser's disk cache prior to pressing the 'Refresh' button. That was a real hassle, as you can imagine, so I downloaded a newer version of my browser software (free of charge from Netscape or Microsoft). That solved my problem. Hope this solves yours too. ---Aristotle

Those Belgian Francs do sound special.

Do you remember when your guidance helped me turn paper into gold? Well, I just heard from MK that my gold is in the form of Belgian Francs! Your formula of wisdom is truly sound.

GC9M took out the ask side of 279.6 just b4 midnite NY time and then the first trade of the day (Tues) was back to the bid at 279.3 --- BUT THE Volume is picking up !!
I am not sure of which or any of your items is going to be the correct one -- I just think the shorters shooting themselves in the other foot would be the most likely senerio.
<;-)

If the purpose of the BOE (alleged) sale is to knock down the POG to enable the short cover folks to get some affordable gold, then, when the post-announcement equilibrium is reached, they will begin to cover. Before last Friday, a +1.2 in Asia would have been exiting. Now it's BFD.

Of course, this is what they want. Everyone expecting each runup to be met with another surprise sale announcement. Then more covering will be possible at the prices necessary to preserve the solvency of the funds.

I am pretty much convinced now, that gold will not break-out due to factors involving gold. The behind the scenes people have enough cohorts throughout the system to keep slamming the technical rallies. It will take the disenchantment in other forms of investment, sending capital seeking gold, to overpower the 'Save the shorts' political/conspiracy team.

"They" may even be holding the whole Stock market up to help these SOBs cover there 8000 tons!

I guess all's fair in love, war and finanace!

$279.10.

You sure Mozel isn't Another?

Date: Tue May 11 1999 03:51
mozel (@End of an Era @How Long ? @Resistance is Futile) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mother England has abandoned her brood, at last. The BOE has crossed the Euro Rubicon and cast the die. England is going into Europe. From inside the EU, she will attempt the sort of divide to maintain balance of power politics that she played from offshore for three hundred years past. Her European partners will not be satisfied until all her vestiges of Empire are foregone and she is just another one of them. The liquidation of her fictitious gold marked the end of an era. Another era is also about to end. The era of the greenback empire.

Everything now marches toward the major event in the last battle of the international war on gold, the redefinition of the IMF-SDR basket of currencies. I posted the schedule for this event last week. The very latest it will become IMF officially effective is 2001. In reality, it will become practically effective much sooner. Conversion of central bank reserves from greenbacks to Euros has been underway for some time. When gold is allowed to rise, the greenback will collapse, undermining the value of US exports as measured for IMF-SDR basket value. At that point it is all over for the international monetary system as we know it. Will it continue with the Euro as the dominant currency in the basket ? Or will the US liquidate it ? One or the other will occur. Maybe, one and then the other. Will Brazil align with the Euro ? Will the avenue to a Western Hemispheric fiat trade zone be closed to USG by Eurobonds whose value cancels Brazil's $US debt ?

@ is a disheartening slogan of a surrendered, captive mind. The hope for comfort in safety from surrender is what is truly futile.

Peter Asher, Gandalf, SteveH and others. Ref posts 5892, 5895, 5896.

This Squire is a little confused. Do we have shorts covering shorts and still no physical gold to bail anyone out? Are they now in even worse condition because they are short at even lower prices?

Peter, you said << "They" may even be holding the whole Stock market up to help these SOBs cover their 8000 tons!>>
Ronny Kraft, CEO of Gotham Capital Management stated that he believes a move in gold could trigger a massive selloff in equities as players short gold sell their stocks to cover those positions.
Does this mean we are somehow short in the stock market because "They" are also holding the bubble canopy up?

SteveH, would a CB announcement of the purchase of 450 tons of gold help the shorts? The gold is out of the market.

This looks like two black holes out of which no light can escape. However we do see a blizzard of paper spiraling into both holes never to see the light of day again.

The events that are about to unfold will be the first steps in major moves to deprive individual citizens in Western civilization of freedom and liberty. I become alarmed that much is being written that this is an inevitable outcome. The question continues to be, is this inevitable because of the stupidity and greed of those in power, or the intelligence and shrewdness of those in power. I have been trying to argue strongly for the latter. That is what I see. If this is the result of a shrewd plan, then there will be and have been many attempts at disinformation to disguise the real nature of events.

US crude oil output is now at a fifty year low, as a result of past 2 years of artificially low oil prices, which did much damage to US oil industry. In addition, there have been at least five recent refinery fires in US alone. It appears that gasoline shortages are being orchestrated for the US. What would gasoline shortages do at the same time the dollar is dramatically devaluing. The price of gasoline would skyrocket, creating fear and chaos. I sincerely doubt proponents of the euro/BIS are sneaking into the US and creating refinery fires. I will repeat, watch for the level of complicity within our own government for what is going on. This is much more than it seems.

Again, I greatly appreciate your knowledge and insights. I think you have said that the European CB's quit leasing gold a year ago, and that you believed that the POG would start to rise a year ago. A significant rumor that the forum has discussed is that the POG will be allowed to start rising starting this June. Many recent events point to this being a real possibility. Most notably, the recent dramatic rise in price of oil supports that POG cannot stay down much longer. The rise in price of oil this March appeared to be very orchestrated also. If POG does begin upward movement in June, it will put a different light on recent events. The IMF, Swiss, and now BOE have all announced gold sales. I would suspect that the goal of all of these announcements is to simply hold the US dollar up and euro down while they are ALL getting out of dollars and into euros. It also appears that the Bosnia war is soon to be ended. This would suggest that the war was just another maneuver to hold the euro down while ALL are doing their euro exchanges. That is my argument for what we are about to see not being some great power struggle between the BIS/IMF. Events appear to be much too coordinated. I don't doubt there may be long-standing differences between the IMF and BIS, but not to the extent of economic destruction. Canamami has argued this point well before.

While the price of gold appears to be manipulated and this we all view as nefarious, the world has long known that the price of crude is manipulated. OPEC has made a decision that many other commodity producers are in the process of implementing; they are taking excess production offline in many cases permanently to take the selling price of the commodity higher. I doubt there will be chaos because of rising gasoline prices. It is more likely that a large increase at the pump will force SUV owners to consider fuel cells.

Linerboard is another commodity the price of which is in everything we need and use on a daily basis; the stuff boxes are made of. The market is rising. One increase this year and another expected by year's end. Either these increase get passed along or, they become subsidized by profits. The price of paper is seldom discussed but its need is ubiquitous.

Can't tell if you are being facetious or not. I am not aware of any mass market availability of fuel cells yet. However, if we do have gasoline shortages, it will be soon. And if the dollar is devaluing against euro/oil at the same time, the rise in price of gasoline could be stratopheric. $6.00/gallon or higher gas could be chaos producing.

ALL:
Back on (FOA (4/30/99; 22:33:18MDT - Msg ID:5420) I offered this:
"I am watching Comex gold trading now, because this should be the place where local (US based) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold (perceived or otherwise)."
In that post and several others, prior, it was shown how and why major short hedge funds would cover their positions from political scrutiny. They are doing this, but, as yet, not by going long "actual comex" contracts. The action is taking place in the "Comex Options" market. This
area is usually used by gamblers that bet on gold. Few, if any of these players actually take delivery of the "comex gold future's". Now, a different operator (s) is buying in, the above mentioned Funds. These people have the "real" short exposure necessary to hedge long, buy taking delivery of the contracts.

As stated before, over the coming months, expect the "comex futures OI" to expand tremendously as long positions are taken "outright" or established from exercising "gold futures options". This "play" has begun on the world OTC gold market, often used by LBMA traders. The amount of gold offered by the BOE sales will be a "drop in the bucket", it is creating an avenue for hedging (perhaps it's real intent?). Local investors cannot watch the OTC figures, but
that trading is spilling over into the "comex gold options floor".

This recent fall in price was but a "trading range move" to allow for an "ongoing" repriceing of gold. They will not dare to keep it below $280 for long. A warning shot may be fired by the BIS controlled ECB this week! We shall see! FOA

Hello Cavan Man'
I agree with your assessment. Also, I add, that stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate and "water use" are all manipulated daily! It is a built in component of the "Western" 'Politically Free" society! The only time people become outraged at this "obviously unmoral" practice, is when it effects a large vocal group "negatively in their pocketbook". I don't see gold stock owners suing the
Federal reserve board because the dollar is "too strong"! Yet, millions of third world citizens are impoverished by this move. Most novice investors accept the notion that the currencies are "priced and balanced" fairly by market forces.

I off a past post thought: (FOA (4/30/99; 23:30:04MDT - Msg ID:5426) "The world often values things wrongly, because people as a group invest using their present life
experiences as a guide. They learn using a continuation of "present trends" established during their short existence, instead of allowing the real results of history to teach them."

Christine, I know you agree? FOA

http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.htmlKnights and Ladies of the Round Table, a new page may be found at the Gilded Opinion to help you to better understand the details of the Bank of England's recently announced gold auctions. From the link above, you may access the official press releases from the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and the World Gold Council - London.
A small quest that will leave you better for having made the journey...

There is one puzzle piece that is the most baffling to me. The move of the Saudi's towards Iran for defense clearly suggests that there is move of the Middle East oil states towards the euro. As you know, I do not agree that what we are seeing unfold reflects an attack by the BIS upon the US dollar. I believe it is the unfolding of a plan to essentially create new massive nation-states with international electronic gold-backed currency.

Once, FOA, I remember reading that you or Another had said this plan you speak of by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect.

Voyager (5/10/99; 14:18:45MDT - Msg ID:5878)
Christine (5/11/99; 5:15:21MDT - Msg ID:5899)

Hi, Voyager, Christine.

Voyager, I assume the news story posted by AEL (5/10/99; 14:43:03MDT - Msg ID:5880) provided some answers to your question about the Bilderberg group.

I've seen news stories about them for many years. I don't archive the stories, but I did find a couple of sites on the Web that you might check out as background.

Christine, these articles may provide some more background for your questions as well.

Origins of the Bilderberg Group
http://www.parascope.com/mx/articles/bilderberg01.htm
Details of 1998 meeting in Scotland
http://www.parascope.com/mx/articles/bilderberg.htm
"Good News: 1998 Was an Awful Year for Internationalists"
http://user.tninet.se/~gbl020q/bildermeetings.htm
Details on 1996 meeting in Canada
http://webbindustries.com/spotlight/f_bb_art001.html
Articles about coordinated manipulation of world event
http://webbindustries.com/spotlight/index.html

Am I a conspiracy nut? Do I believe there is a global conspiracy?

I believe people will act in their own self interest to increase their wealth and power. I've seen first hand the business benefits of networking and business alliances on a formal and informal basis. If one sees groups like the Bilderbergers as the ultimate in business networking and business alliances by the richest and most powerful people who control, through interlocking Boards of Directors, the biggest multinational corporations on the planet, then manipulation of large-scale events to achieve certain desired outcomes does not seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Is this manipulation an exact science? No. There are too many variables in the world.

Is it worth a try anyway? If the goal is to increase your wealth and power no matter what, some people may think it is.

Do I worry about what they're doing? No. But I think if you live in the midst of a herd of elephants and the elephants start to dance, it's a good idea to ignore the song they are singing, and instead, keep an eye on their footsteps and the dance patterns they are following.

BC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_340000/340911.stmNot exactly a comforting level of stability here...

Christine (5/11/99; 7:37:42MDT - Msg ID:5908)
@FOA--puzzles and missing pieces

"Once, FOA, I remember reading that you or Another had said this plan you speak of by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible thethe Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect. "

Christine,
A very good observation / question!

" Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning?"

I, personally, think they were for a while. After all, the Euro group will, just as the US group, take all the power they can get! But, world power struggles are always a funny thing, in that no one entity is as great at maneuvering politics as they think they are. Each group has it's own strengths the other cannot counter.
Look at Russia, a full blown nuclear power that rivaled the US, yet, all of that military might went out the door when the "money war" broke them! Then there is Japan? One of the biggest economic, financial powers in the world, and they went bust for lack of "political agreement"!
China has none (relatively) of the above, yet they are the major desire of the US and Europe for all of their ability to produce economically. And they play that card with incredible ability.
However, all of it pales in comparison to oil. If they did suspect that the BIS was playing them into a "new World Order" then that explains their use of the "gold card". It was allowed to be known that the failure of the Euro to replace the dollar would bring on the reprice of oil using
partial payment of a tiny fractional gold amounts per barrel in the settlement mix. Real gold, not paper! It would have forced every oil producer in the world to follow as the gold price would have blew past $30,000 as the new oil currency. Quickly, at the last minute, the ECB and the BIS announced that Euro system Central Banks would stop all selling and wind down leasing. Then gold was brought into the reserve mix for the Euro. Perhaps a counter play? You bet!

The game goes on. FOA

Where does that leave the gas station owner? Will it be the same as the 70's when the supply was really there, yet tight enough to command better profits for producers, the majors and the retailers? Or is the next energy going to come in and dust the current industry away? Thoughts are very much appreciated....Al

FOA -- a Question
Please expand on the Comex options trading and where this is to be seen. Is it quoted somewhere also. Thanks. GW
<;-)

MARKET ANALYSIS (5/11/99): With the effects of the Bank of England gold auction
announcement beginning to wear off, gold reversed direction with authority this morning.
A number of factors were helping the yellow metal.

First, as a meeting of the G-10 nations convened in Basle, central bankers from the
European Union group announced that none of the member nations had any intention of
selling gold countering British and American financial press claims that there would be. The
clearly stated positions on gold sales by the central bankers added more doubt to the
questionable statements by British authorities that the gold auction was an attempt to "run
ahead" of other central banks who they claimed would be sellers in the near future. German
Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer stated categorically that "We are all of the opinion
gold will remain in the future an important reserve asset of central banks." Statements like
this from other central bankers, as well as the U.S. Treasury Department, took the steam
out of yesterday's carry-over trading to the downside -- ending the slide early in the day and
paving the way for today's upside. The British pound was taken to the woodshed again this
morning in early trading presumably in a slide related to the gold auction announcement.

In this morning's Standard Bank gold report, mention was made of a strong sell-off in
London after Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown called for further International
Monetary Fund gold sales. These "calls" by Brown are beginning to take on the feel of
comedy. Nevertheless the market fell to the $275 level and then recovered quickly when
strong physical buying came into the market pushing the price up rapidly back to the $278
level. The market in New York opened much higher when rumored sales at the London
close failed to materialize. A pattern is beginning to emerge. Some British "authority" issues
some type of anti-gold statement driving the price momentarily lower. As the price drops,
mysterious "physical buying" suddenly surfaces.

Second, for most of the trading day we watched market action carefully to see if the hedge
funds would come in as sellers. Typically, in the past, the hedge funds have piled on these
announcements, but yesterday appeared to be an exception. This morning it appears that at
least part of this rally can be attributed to short covering, probably by the hedge funds.
Though the jury is out on what the funds will do in the near term, this record short position
will need to filled at some point and this could be the perfect opportunity. The British salvo
may turn out to be a two day event in the gold market to be treated like a passing storm --
refreshing the landscape -- if you happen to be short -- but with little, or no, long term
effect This is not, I would assume, what the Bank of England had in mind, but it could very
well be what it gets.

Third, as the week draws to a close, we will get the latest inflation numbers. As reported
here yesterday the market anticipates much higher PPI and CPI numbers.

That's it for today. Have a good day.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.

Christine (5/11/99; 7:37:42MDT - Msg ID:5908)

Hi, Christine,

Your comment: "...I do not agree that what we are seeing unfold reflects an attack by the BIS upon the US dollar. I believe it is the unfolding of a plan to essentially create new massive nation-states with international electronic gold-backed currency. ...this plan...by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect."

Perhaps all of the above are true to some degree. If my memory serves me correctly, the Bilderbergers have been around since the 1950s.

Throughout history, groups of people have tried to increase their wealth and power at the expense of others. But history shows us that, while these groups may succeed for a while, they ultimately fail. Why? The same drive for wealth and power that drove them to work together to violate others' sovereignty in the first place is the same misguided addiction (greed for money, lust for power, sexual depravity, resentment, hate, jealousy, egomania, etc.) that drives them to betray each other at key turning points after their common goals are met.

BC

Thank you for sharing these good thoughts. This post reminds me of the path I was travelling last Thursday and Friday with Goldfly, Gandalf, and JA before I became distracted with outside business. I shall pick up this trail later this day as time permits.

got bread crumbs?

I requested that my wife pay a visit to our local branch of BBL to enquire about securing some physical Au, storage facilities etc. It would appear that quite a lot of Belgians are acquiring the yellow stuff and the reason given for this activity is Y2K. This was also confirmed at the local jewellers.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/bhw.htmlNo, we didn't think so, either...

WGC PRESS RELEASE:
Remarks at London Conference Underline Importance of Gold's Continuing Role as Reserve Asset

Addressing the Bank Credit Analysts Conference in London today, Haruko Fukuda, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council commented upon the decision by the British Treasury that it will be selling more than half of its gold reserves. The following is a summary of Miss Fukuda's remarks:

``Gold is at once a commodity and a universal currency. Is the British Chancellor of the Exchequer challenging that long-held assumption by bringing the gold ratio down to a mere 7% of the UK's total official reserves? Or was there another hidden political agenda? We at the World Gold Council have been told by HM Treasury that it was emphatically a political decision. I am delighted to have this opportunity to refer to the subject of gold, not least because I have recently been appointed Chief Executive of the World Gold Council, which represents the interests of the world's gold mining companies.

``I did not have it in mind to discuss gold today, but if you would forgive me, I should like to give a very brief advertisement for gold as a reserve asset in defiance of the latest decision of the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

``Despite persistent efforts by the United States to drive gold out of the international monetary system entirely, gold is today an important part of the world's central banks' official reserves. Indeed, overall, the amount of gold held by central banks has not in fact fallen since 1970; that is, before gold ceased to have a role in defining the value of currencies. 70% of countries reporting to the IMF declare gold holdings and only 6% declare they have no gold.

``Central banks hold gold partly at least because it is no one else's liability; it is not subject to the vagaries of economic management. We should remember why gold became de-coupled from the dollar and why the subsequent attempt to replace it with another international reserve asset, SDRs, was a failure. It is too early to tell whether the experience of the recent past, with moves to create independent central banks with price stabilization goals, will work in perpetuity. But there is no escaping the fact that the value of currencies depends on governments' promises.

``Gold has a long history of maintaining its real value over the long term: a calculation of average total annual returns for a dollar investor from buying in any given year and selling in any subsequent year (randomly chosen) during the hundred years between 1896 and 1996 demonstrates that gold has out-performed both long and short dated US government bonds. A nation's reserves should be diversified to minimize risk: research shows that gold is an ideal portfolio diversifier since returns are negatively correlated with most other reserve assets. The European Central Bank's research a year or so ago suggested that a reserve portfolio containing up to 20% of gold is subject to less risk than one entirely composed of US dollars and Japanese yen.

``Gold reserves build public confidence: perhaps it is not totally a coincidence that the currencies of Australia and Canada devalued substantially following their sales of gold. Opinion polls taken last year in Europe showed overwhelming support for countries maintaining gold reserves.

``Gold is generally regarded as the asset of last resort as governments have only drawn on their gold reserves in times dramatic economic or social difficulties. The last sale of gold in France was in 1969 to deal with the financial consequences of the May 1968 uprising; in Portugal, where gold was sold following the 1975 revolution; more recently, India used its gold reserves to borrow US$1 billion to avoid default in 1991; and in the recent financial crisis in Korea gold was dis-hoarded to help the national economy.

``Gold reserves of central banks are still perceived as an insurance against major disturbances in the international monetary system. The last sharp rise in the price of gold in the early 1980s coincided with the fears of a collapse of the banking system as a result of the Latin American debt crisis.

``Lastly, but most importantly, gold reserves are an emblem of monetary sovereignty. Why else would the ECB choose a 15% gold ratio for its reserves in launching the new currency, the Euro? When the Baltic states regained their independence in 1990, one of the first acts was to ask for the restitution of their gold that had been deposited in European central banks. Revealingly, Toyoo Gyohten, perhaps the best-known international negotiator from Japan, wrote in his book, which was co-authored by Paul Volcker, that 'there were rather strong arguments among politicians and even among officials for increasing our gold reserves, because it was obvious that unless you had some gold in your reserves you really could not participate in international discussions because no one would pay any attention to you.'''

The World Gold Council is an international organization formed and funded by leading gold mining companies from around the world to increase the demand for gold.

Clarification for (mostly absent) posters

Another's and FOA's much misunderstood thesis of "gold for oil" whose misunderstanding seemed to propell Another's THOUGHTS towards the lunatic fringe got a large dose of clarification this morning in FOA's post (5/11/99; 8:34:18MDT - Msg ID:5911) which bears underlining for the�benefit of "those of idle chatter" (mostly over at that other forum) whose intentional? misinterpretation of Another's THOUGHTS gave them so much cause for self congratulation at the time.

FOA writes today: "However, all of it pales in comparison to oil...that explains their use of the "gold card". It was ALLOWED TO BE KNOWN (my emphasis) that the failure of the Euro to replace the dollar would bring on the reprice of oil using partial payment of tiny fractional gold amounts per barrel in the settlement mix. Real gold, not paper! It would have forced every oil producer in the world to follow as the gold price would have blown past $30,000 as the new oil currency. Quickly, at the last minute, the ECB and the BIS announced that Euro system Central Banks would stop all selling and wind down leasing. Then gold was brought into the reserve mix for the Euro."

With this post, it is now clear that "gold for oil" was never actually a reality; but rather the threat of a very easily-implementable reality that could have turned the financial world on its ear in a heartbeat. With this comment, FOA shows how the mere threat has nevertheless eventually changed the landscape as we "watch this new gold market together".

Thank you FOA for this important insight.

Your previous comments on the oil industry have been enormously helpful to me. I have speculated about this energy issue. Western nations that remain out of Euroland are generally rich in energy resources. I expect we will see a big rampup of alternative fuels. Everything I've read suggests fuel cells are along way from being marketable. However, what do you think? You are probably the best expert to share your thoughts on this.

Christine, check out the followin sites:

http://www.drivingthefuture.org/
http://www.Ballard.com/

FOA (5/11/99; 7:00:32MDT - Msg ID:5905)

Hi, FOA

Is this the correlation you were talking about in your post #5905?

"The first of these auctions will take place on 6 July 1999: thereafter it is envisaged that they will be held every other calendar month, i.e. in September and November 1999 and in January and March 2000." (From BoE Press Release--7 May 1999: RESTRUCTURING THE UK'S RESERVE HOLDINGS: GOLD AUCTIONS)

Gold futures contracts on the COMEX expire:

June contract: 6/28/99
August contract: 8/28/99
October contract: 10/27/99
December contract: 12/28/99
February contract: 2/25/99

The first BOE sale is July 6, 1999, eight days after June gold futures contract expires. Convenient for someone needing to take delivery of June gold?

Other BOE sales scheduled for September and November, 1999, and January and March 2000. Will they also be a convenient few days after contract expiration?

I did this quickly. I'm pretty sure the dates are correct.

Since IMF, ECB, BIS or US Treasury will not provide gold to cover these futures contracts, BOE is stepping up to the plate?

BC

FYI:


http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4638

The IMF says it will sell some gold (not much) to raise money to loan to
underdeveloped nations, i.e., help them maintain interest payments to large
banks.

Now the Bank of England says it will sell half of its gold to buy T-bills
and similar electronic assets. This is another step in the official
demonetization of gold by governments.

I say, goodie. Over two decades ago, I wrote a piece in the Wall Street
Journal calling for every government and central bank to sell all of its
gold. This would represent the return of stolen goods to the public. I want
to see the remonetization of gold, which means a gold coin standard, where
governments and banks are out of the money-creation business.

Y2K may actually lead to the remonitization of gold. The more comprehensive
y2k's effects, the more likely this becomes.

Notice that one nation is not selling any of its gold: the United States.
This demonetization of gold is mostly public relations until the U.S. sells
(not says it might sell) all of its gold. It would have to buy it back from
the Federal Reserve System.

Why all the publicity on gold sales now? Because of y2k. There will be a
run into gold the day the full implications of y2k are recognized by the
public. The central banks are trying to stop a y2k-motivated increase in
the price of gold bullion, which would otherwise accompany a run on banks
all over the world. The price of gold can be kept down by huge sales, or
threats of huge sales, thereby covering up a key piece of evidence in the
approaching y2k bank failure.

I am long time follower of Ballard Power. They are notorious for hyping their company to get more funding. I have read engineers who say the technology is years away from being mass marketable at a reasonable cost. However, engineers can be wrong. The jury is out on that one for me.

Thanks for the links and comments. I will file it all away.
Chris

Can anybody direct me to a medium to long term chart on the correlation between gold lease rates and the price? Trying to settle a current preoccupation. Thanks.

Gandalf the White (5/11/99; 9:07:31MDT - Msg ID:5913)
Keep Talking Folks --- Very informative Today !
"FOA -- a Question Please expand on the Comex options trading and where this is to be seen. Is it quoted
somewhere also. Thanks. GW"


Gandalf,
Check your WSJ commodity options page. It will give you a quick idea of what is happening. The total OI in the call side is, I think, over 400,000 already. Of course, that would grow much higher if I'm correct.
ALL: I will be out for a while and return to comment on the many interesting thoughts here today. FOA

Yes, I was pulling your leg a bit. Fuel cells are a long way from being competitive with internal combustion but Ballard is a company to watch. I am new to this forum business and the subject that is near and dear. The more I tune in the more I am confused; kind of like following popular culture. I am unlearned but if I could say just one thing, LIGHTEN UP A BIT WOULDYA! You should only worry about what you can control right? If you have the yellow metal and have taken other precautions and continue to exercise prudence and good judgment then, go fishin'. Gold is good in this life but worthless in the next. Respectfully submitted....

Britain sells part of its gold reserves.

The ECB would have around 15 percent of its reserves in gold.

Does this mean that de euro is 15 percent gold backed and that if gold rises 7 times in euro terms, the euro will be on the gold standard? I suppose not, but I don't find the meaning of reserve on the web nor in my books.

By the way, how much gold has the Fed in reserve? Less than 15 percent?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htmSharefin has a good chart vs spot.....looking at it last night....lease rates are product of high spot or cause...?
Notice the mini spike one year later than the Buffet spike....rolling over leases...?

Hello, Cavan Man. You seem to be a person with a quick, decisive mind. No harm in that. As FAO likes to say, we will watch what happens together. You may have a different opinion in a few months. But, I actually do hope that nothing will happen to change your mind.

You asked for the meaning of 'reserve.' As used in your post, the reserves in question are the foreign exchange reserves that cental banks use for the purpose of providing some means of international credibility for their currency, and for tweaking their exchange rates if intervention on the open market becomes necessary in their view. These reserves are some mix of international currencies and Gold.

When the ECB was launched by the European System of member banks, it was funded with (working from memory here) 50 billion ECU's in reserves, and they opted to use Gold for 15% of those reserves. If you count the Gold and international paper reserves still held by the member banks, Gold (over 10,000 tonnes!) makes up 30% of the total available reserves. By way of comparison, I recall that their money supply exceeds 1 trillion euros.

In the U.S., the Treasury reports approximately 8,000 tonnes of Gold, valued at $42.2222, which constitutes approximately 50% of the U.S. foreign exchange reserves. Because the U.S. dollar has been widely used and accepted as the world's reserve currency, the U.S. has found little need to hold the paper of other international parties. And because it makes no sense for the U.S. to hold dollars in reserve (it simply doesn't work that way), the Gold is a large percentage of the total reserves, with the paper being a small mix of euro legacies (marks), yen, and swiss francs, among others. ---Aristotle

New York-May 11-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished near steady to modestly firmer here today, with
gold finally stabilizing--at least in the near term--
following falls the last two days after news of upcoming
official sales by the United Kingdom.
June gold gave up some of its early gains, but still
finished 40 cents firmer at $278.80. It was in a range of
$2.30, from $278.10 to $280.40.

"It stabilized a bit after the sharp declines the last
couple of days," said Dave Rinehimer, head of futures
research with Salomon Smith Barney. "The range has gone back
to pretty narrow.
"Being able to hold above yesterday's low ($276.50)
probably brought a little bit of stability into the market.
We seemed to have some decent buying interest on the
opening, and that probably brought some short covering into
the market."

Gold also was helped today by strength in the
Australian dollar, currently up 0.29 U.S. cent at 66.89 U.S.
cents, and the South African rand, he added.
Still, Rinehimer said the market may not have seen the
lows.
"The market still appears more vulnerable to the
downside," he said. "It's difficult to see what's going to
get us back toward the $290 area, in light of the U.K. news."

On Friday, U.K. Treasury officials announced plans to
reallocate reserves, selling 415 tons of gold over the next
few years and moving into foreign-exchange assets instead.
Plans call for the Bank of England to sell 125 tons yet this
fiscal year, with the first of five auctions scheduled for
July 6.
This comes as the market was watching the International
Monetary Fund and Swiss officials moving toward potential sales.
Support for June gold was put at Monday's low of
$276.50, while resistance was listed at $284.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

The options come up on quote-com by entering OG + month + price. So, OGM280 is the option to buy a June future contract for $280. That option expires on this Friday and closed today @ $1.20.

One could therefore buy up the options and exercise them to acquire the futures, without putting pressure on the price of either June Gold or the physical while executing. However, at some quantity of option purchasing, market phenomena would enter into this and the option premium itself would rise.

The fact is that today's trading shows a volume of 9 contracts total, so there doesn't seem to be anything going on there. (I wondered if the volume figures were in hundreds, but the bar chart shows nothing but horizontal blips).

This may raise more questions than give answers, but that's all I know as a mostly self educated option player.

Thanks for the assist.

I just read FOA's post about 400,000 OI on call options. The significance would be at what various strike prices they are written at. Options would only facilitate short covering if the gave the holder the ability to acquire the contracts to acquire the physical at a lesser expenditure than if they went straight to the spot market for that particular quantity.

Strikes of 280, 85 &90 might enable more quantity to be purchased this way, than by direct buying which could kick off the over 290 buying panic. On the other hand, strike prices way out there in the 300s, would only be useful if purchasing the equivalent quantity directly would shoot the spot price up beyond those strikes.

I hope this can be followed with all the run-on sentences. I can hear my English #101 Professor weeping in his grave.

It appears that perhaps I have come in late in Act III n'est pas? The point is why worry? If you are prepared for the worst, hope for the best as I know you do.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/bcw.htmlProfessional sellers: after a shot at the long side, "...now they are getting out of stuff aggressively."

Soros' hedge fund said to be selling. Shades of SE Asia?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/bca.htmlMost IMM currencies end lower, euro down sharply

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/77.htmlShoppers hit the streets...Y2K buying?

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 11--After plunging Monday and Friday, COMEX Jun gold futures
managed to steady and settled up 40c at $278.80 per ounce after an inside day's
trading. Over the Monday and Friday trading sessions, Jun had lost a total of
$12.30, or 4.2%, following news that the UK Treasury plans to sell more than
half of its gold reserves.

One trader said that the market was quiet, suggesting that many players were
"taking a break" after the recent frenzied selling.

On the gold side, 4 US senators, including minority leader Tom Daschle
(D-S.D), sent a letter to US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, saying they were
opposed to the proposal to sell International Monetary Fund gold.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $278.8, up 40c; RANGE: $280.4-278.1

Taipei--May 11--Taiwan's March imports of precious metals were mostly up
compared with February, according to data from the Directorate General of
Customs. By Sylvia Shih, Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/blueskydougherty/19990511xnjdotroublego.shtmlMost Excellant Article.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_dougherty/19990511_xnjdo_trouble_go.shtmlMost Excellent Article.

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/STATE/t000042287.2.htmlMy friend jinx, the above URL shows most people are level headed,in most situations,including police.
Unlike most other countries,the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms.The Constitution also protects against unreasonable searches and seizures.Amendment IV.
Therefore if these storm troopers(jinx44-msg.5875) start to enforce unpopular laws(confiscation of personal assets) it may undermine the stability of the U.S. and in the eyes of the worlds investors cause a panic out of U.S. paper assets, precipitating a collapse of the dollar.
If I remember right,the Viet Nam era was ending about the time that Gold started its flight from $35 per ounce to over $800 per ounce,a time of unstability in the U.S. My 101 year old aunt would shoot me if I try to relieve her of her Gold coins.

On a lighter note, most Gold mining stocks ROSE today despite a low spot price of Gold.Investors may sense a change in the Gold market,right now.We watch together........beesting

Thank you for your very interesting article on the Bilderbergers. Although a strange mixture of bedfellows.

Reminds me a bit of Hillary and her "vast rightwing conspiracy" theory. The Republicians and conservatives are so dysfunctional, and they could pull off such a conspiracy? It is hard to believe, but the world is a very strange place these days. Clinton has shown clearly that most people would rather be led by the nose than think for themselves.

You can count me out as a citizen of The New World Order.

Somewhere recently wasn't there something about the UN wanting to pass gun control laws for all member nations?

$278.80.

Went to a speach today. The topic was a Future View of Family Business. The speaker was a futurist and a good speaker but I did question some of his facts. I waited and held my peace until the question period and managed three questions:

What is the affect of the Euro and the dollar as a reserve currency?

What will be the affects of Y2K?

What will be the local persons reaction to the rise in the price of oil?

I stuck around until the very end and threw a comment to him that gold was taking on a position of greater importance in the world.

What I discovered is that no one has any idea that gold plays any significant role in international monitary affairs. He believes that gold will be dishoarded and that something else will take its place. I asked him what. He said faith.

Regarding Y2K, he said it won't significantly affect the US but will overseas.

Regarding oil, he said the cost wasn't $20 per barrel as I inferred in my question. He said Saudia Arabia's cost was about $2.00 per barrell. He said in the US it was $7.00.

Regarding the Euro and the Dollar, he said he wasn't quilified to answer.

He said that the economy would continue to be good because we have figured out to have growth without inflation.

At that point I realized that he nor anyone else in that room was aware of gold, the true cost of oil, SDR's, BOE sales, and the rest of this. If gold goes to $10,000 and oil to $5 or $6 per gallon, it will take Mr. and Mrs. Q public absolutely by storm and wonder what the heck happened.

"Martha, did you feel something?"

"No Norm, I didn't."

Pulls back the camera to wide angle with two people in their underwear sitting at a table with forks in their hands where the plates and food and furniture and all other household goods suddenly disappeared.

Gandalf the White (5/11/99; 9:07:31MDT - Msg ID:5913)
BC (5/11/99; 10:39:35MDT - Msg ID:5923)
Peter Asher (5/11/99; 13:53:47MDT - Msg ID:5935)
Peter Asher (5/11/99; 14:18:42MDT - Msg ID:5937)

Gandalf and All,
I want to expand (or repeat) about the Open Interest Posts. First, I quoted from the wrong post. It should have been #5418 as it gives a better background. Here is part of it:

"""""FOA (4/30/99; 21:59:59MDT - Msg ID:5418)
I am watching Comex gold trading now, because this should be the place where local (US based) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold (perceived or other wise).

Private investment funds, that have raised capitol through any form of gold short securities, may be asked to expose their "risk". The full group of investment entities may also be expanded to include "any" other parties that have dealings or actual exposure to these funds that are short. In essence, every major player in the gold market could be looking for a way to "neutralize" their books to scrutiny. Even though your exposure may have come from the unregulated part of the OTC world gold market, if one is "hedged long" on a "politically acceptable" exchange, then your position is "politically not at risk"! The books stay closed.

So why watch Comex, open interest? If a certain political faction suddenly changed direction and wanted to revalue gold as an asset to lend money against, the fasted way to do it is to drive currency traders into the paper gold traded on comex. When looked at in this light, gold takes on
a very different appearance than the commodity we thought it was.""""

I went on to talk about volume. The point of this post and my one earlier #5905 was to prepare a background for the coming major trading that will take place on Comex. It will not be about trying to take delivery of comex gold, rather to match paper longs against "uncoverable" paper shorts". As the gold market becomes more dynamic and media attention increases, most major traders that are short will need coverage on their "books" not actual delivery. In a way,
what I said above.

Peter, a few dollars out of line will be nothing compared to the financial and political liability about to be heaped upon the world "gold shorts". As I told Gandalf, it is already spilling over out of the OTC trading and showing up on the gold options open interest. Small as it is at 400,000+, it will grow until that arena becomes frozen from use (read that the premiums will explode)! Then
the real Comex OI will start growing. They will exercise some options for future contracts, if only to roll them (Futures contracts) over to further out delivery.

BC, hello! There is most certainly a correlation between the BOE sales and the expiration of comex futures. It points to the whole reason for the BOE sales in the first place. An announcement that this is the end of the game! They are going to take out as much of the "most favored" Bullion merchants as possible and let the rest burn.
I know that Michael (USAGOLD) does not think that England will go for the Euro, but some line has been crossed. The US is now about to drive gold UP! Please read this partial post:

---------------FOA (4/30/99; 22:33:18MDT - Msg ID:5420)

Michael,
Hello again! I'll reprint the item you committed on:

"This points to the odd circumstances that require America to free up gold through the IMF so they can benefit. Whereas, the ECB has but to only let the price rise!"

When one puts on a political thinking cap, that statement does say a lot! Why else would the ECB establish a precedent of routinely "marking to the market" their gold (and the gold of the Euro System banks also). Then add to that your remark of:

"becomes clear that this is a very risky business and that they are being asked to sacrifice their gold to defend another country's currency."

Suddenly, we see who's gold was really at risk, all along! Are we in the last days of the dollar, as the US agrees to politically drive gold higher to benefit the IMF? And by extention, world dollar reserves as expressed in dollar debt! Will the US be forced to drive it's own dollar down against gold in an attempt to save it's reserve status? Dynamic times, indeed! FOA-----------


As opposite as it seems, the BOE is selling gold to soften the dollar exit for their members, not to bring their gold ratio in line for entry! They are spliting fron the US because the gold / dollar game is lost. Now from #5699:

-----------The "dollar reserve system" is truly in trouble.
With the IMF gold sales in doubt, or delayed. And the EURO / BIS factions blocking any new gold. New gold cannot be found to maintain the backing of collateral for existing paper shorts and the massive liquidity they provide. The UK is directly in the middle of this as the LBMA would all
but "disappear" if world dollar liquidity were to shrink from a higher gold price!

Notice what the Bank Of England said: "It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England." Truly, the IMF / Dollar faction alliance is
failing, with each now about to support it's own entities! The BOE will most definitely back the LBMA first and foremost with fresh collateral!---------------------

I an going to post this then continue with PH in LA as it all ties in. thanks FOA

Great comments. The public is unaware of what is going on, largely due to propaganda by the internationlists delivered through the media.
Who will the masses blame when this starts to unfold, as it already is with rising interest rates.


That is a really good question/issue. Via manipulation
of the media that is constant, you can bet the masses
will be led to blame the wrong people. What comes to my
mind right now is they will be told to blame the Middle
East, and oil industry. People are already mad their gas
prices have gone up 50%. Listen to who they blame for
that. If we do get the gasoline shortages I suspect at
the same time as dollar devaluation against oil/gold,
gasoline could soar to $6/gallon or even much
higher--who are they going to blame for that? And the media will only throw fuel on that fire. Similiarly I imagine gold will be blamed in some way also. The real
culprits will walk away free.

This is a post I found on the KITCO FORUM.


Date: Tue May 11 1999 13:21
kapex (Worldnetdaily.com) ID#275170:
Copyright � 1999 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TUESDAY MAY 11 1999
The mother of all conspiracies By Jon E. Dougherty � 1999 WorldNetDaily.com
As the drip of information about Chinese theft of U.S. nuclear secrets slowly became a crescendo and threatened to turn into a landslide, the anticipation of full disclosure by key congressional players seemed almost palpable. Over the past couple of weeks, you could feel the momentum building. Bill Clinton was finally within reach, and not for something as sultry, or -- as it turns out -- as ordinary as sex. No, some congressmen were beginning to utter the "T" word -- treason -- when they began speaking privately about the Clinton administration and Chinese espionage. Even this past weekend, host Tim Russert of MSNBC was able to extract an admission of guilt from Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, who said, yes, the Chinese stole our nuclear technology and,
yes, Bill Clinton knew about it in advance. Man. A scandal tailor-made in heaven for conservatives. But it was too late. The Chinese Embassy in Belgrade had already been bombed. Now, suddenly, the opportunity to get the Chinese to cooperate with U.S. agents investigating the alleged thefts had abruptly ended. When the walls of the Chinese Embassy came crashing down, so too did our chance to
find out what really happened. At least, that's how the Clinton administration may spin this. You can just hear the excuse rolling off the lips of Clinton spinmeisters now, can't you? "Darn it. You know, the Chinese were just about
to tell us everything we wanted to know regarding this espionage thing. But since we accidentally bombed their embassy, now they aren't talking to us." Thank you, Joe Lockhart. If you don't think that this administration is capable of striking a deal with the Chinese to let U.S. planes bomb their embassy, so that both countries can "suddenly" develop "differences" which would prevent full
disclosure in the nuclear espionage scandal, then you haven't been paying much attention. Clinton is not only capable of this level of chicanery, there are already people who are actively talking about it. Yesterday during Rush
Limbaugh's program, he read an email from MSNBC's Jay Severin, in which Severin suggested just such a conspiracy. The more I thought about it, the more plausible I think it is.
To dismiss this theory out of hand, you'd have to have already made your mind up about a number of other implausible things. For instance, you would already have to believe that the Central Intelligence Agency is so inept, they couldn't identify the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. You'd also have to believe that U.S. weaponry is so bad that we could accidentally send four bombs into the embassy using laser-guided technology. Then, you'd have to assume that
Bill Clinton and the Chinese have had absolutely no relationship whatsoever for the past six years. Plus, you'd have to discount all the hard evidence showing Chinese financial contributions to the Clinton/Gore reelection campaign in 1996. Next, you'd have to believe that neither Clinton, nor any of his spokesmen, have ever lied to you. Good luck with that one. Finally, what with the amount of information already released about China's spying activities at our nuclear weapons labs, you'd have to believe that people like Rep. Chris Cox, R-Calif., really didn't have any hard information that was damaging or harmful to national security. But, since most Americans have already found out
that at least some damage has been done due to Chinese spying, there goes that excuse. Nobody hates conspiracy theories worse than me. But you've got to admit: with this administration, anything is possible and certainly anything
that would involve collusion with the Chinese government. The benefits, besides the effective death of the China spy scandal, would be almost as damaging as the theft of technology. Beijing would no doubt squeeze even more concessions on trade, human rights, and technology transfers from the Clinton White House, for agreeing to allow U.S. planes to kill a few Chinese citizens. You have to remember that communists don't consider life as valuable as we do. And, Chinese leaders don't have to depend on polls, focus groups, sound bites and spin control to stay in power. So, there it is -- the mother of all conspiracies. Is it true?
Who knows? But, the more important question ought to be, is it even possible? We're dealing with the Clinton administration. Therefore, the answer to the last question should be obvious.

A possible collapse of the Stock Market would be the Second Impeachment of Bill Clinton for Treason!
If lying about sex isn't considered a High Crime and Misdeamenor, what about Treason?

Now I really am glad I have Gold.

Hello PH,
Thanks for your consideration.

I'll start with one very important statement, "the gold market is cornered"! When one reads your Clarification post it becomes evident that the "gold card" was never played. Or was it?

During the last number of years, possibly most of the 90s, the gold market was expanded tremendously. The result was that the holders of "paper gold" and "physical gold", as a group, now own more gold than exists! Is no wonder that the "technical analysis" and "supply / demand" "investment managers" are in a shambles to explain the workings of this new market. Truly, as said before, they are commodity analysis, not political currency analysis. For them, a cornered market must be soaring to reflect the imbalance of longs and shorts. Now can one understand that gold, the political money, is managed on a world scale for the purpose of control of currencies.

From the beginning, the BIS knew that if gold ownership was spread far and wide by leasing from a few European banks, one day, gold would control the value of the dollar. Today, the major longs, that are the recipients of all of that expanded gold, now control the bullion banks, and quite possibly, the CBs. All of this through the threat of delivery that the act of playing the "oil gold card" would "demand"!

Is it then, any wonder, that the quite, cool, suffering longs, watch as the Swiss, the IMF the BOE, all struggle to sell gold in an effort to only "maintain" the credibility of the shorts? All done in a desperate act to save the IMF and by design, the dollar! In this light, was there really a problem if gold falls?

A fine gentleman I know has said, "the Euro, it be a success, for I do see it written in the wind"

FOA

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mining/conspiracy.htmThought this was a nice little article.
It starts out sounding like it's heckling Gold Conspiracy Theorists but then leads towards agreement.

I have a question about Aristotle's post #5933 where he states " in the U.S., the Treasury reports approximately 8,000 tonnes of Gold, valued at $42.2222,
which constitutes approximately 50% of the U.S. foreign exchange reserves. Because the U.S.
dollar has been widely used and accepted as the world's reserve currency, the U.S. has found
little need to hold the paper of other international parties. And because it makes no sense for the
U.S. to hold dollars in reserve (it simply doesn't work that way), the Gold is a large percentage
of the total reserves, with the paper being a small mix of euro legacies (marks), yen, and swiss
francs, among others. ---Aristotle ". Is the gold held by the treasury available to the federal reserve system or are the fed and treasury different entities?

thanks tlc

Look at their websites ...frb is "dot" org....treasury is "dot" gov.....one is not part of the gov by no means!....bankers of the world own the fed

Do you remember this extraordinary discussion between me and Another of a little over one year ago? I will post this for those gathered at this table. My questions are surrounded by ** stars **. There is little doubt that the very same questions Another and I wrestled with then are still on the table today. It appears to me that the situation in Britain is much as Another described it and I paraphrase -- Britain is a lost country. It is a country caught between two worlds. Your pereception is correct, FOA. Right or wrong, I believe that Britain does not have the chips to bring to the euro table. Too many countries have sacrificed too much to toe the Maastricht line. They will not react lightly to another country being admitted under looser guidelines -- a 7 per cent dilution in a 30% world. I believe the BOE sale is an attempt to bail somebody out -- I don't know who -- but probably a major counter-party. There is too much of an aura of desperation in the words and acts of the BOE and the British Exchequer for it to be political only. It is interesting to me that in my conversations today with some of my more astute clients, a knowledbeable commodities broker and an international bullion trader -- the expressed opinion was that they will believe the British are selling when the first ounce of gold trades hands. Being a student of human nature, FOA, I though I would pass that along. The international trader told me that if the gold goes to LBMA and never reaches the public market, it is the irrefutable sign that the bull market has arrived.

I refer all to the post below from May 5, 1998.

----------------------

5/5/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) USAGOLD QUESTIONS IN ITALICS

Mr. Kosares,

A few thoughts for you, as the questions are asked?

** It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did
for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and
international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even
tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the Euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of
regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? **

Sir,

I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply
say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed.
Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets
lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid,
enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people
escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that
comes to maturity today.

New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide
currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it
represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the
reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very
same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to
die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of
currencies here, the transition will be brutal!

As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the
manufactures of profit!"

** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**

Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did
allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US
citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar!
Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market
economy".

*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has
Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan?
And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **

Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would
build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the
Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the
American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead
Japan.

**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed.
Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **

Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!

***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it
simply a speculation on his part. ***

The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was
leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.

**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**

Perhaps, "who control them"?

**The Swiss? Yes.

**The eurocentral banks? Yes.

**Who does BIS really represent? "old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without
war".

**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? answered.

**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe? Yes.

Sir, there is much more to this, but we talk over time, yes? I will be away for perhaps ten days. We speak again.

Thank You

Climbing. $279.20.

Me thinks Sherlock needs to be called. I believe he now stays at the Baker Street Hotel near Baker Street tube station. You know down from Madame Toussaut(?)'s and down a few blocks. See the man named Dr. Watson. He knows Holmes and if anybody can get him in on this he can. Be sure to fill him in on all the facts that you know. I heard that he said, "If you eliminate the impossible, all that remains is the answer"...or some such rot...anyway, do see the man named Watson. We do need him now....Holmes I mean.

Tell Watson too that Greenspan is on the board of the BIS, I think. Although frankly, I don't really know how all this conspiracy rot can be going on when everybody knows its going on. Somebody beside us must be in the dark, but it sure doesn't feel right. Me thinks we need Holmes.

Piced up on one of the gold reports about option expirey influencing the price that day....it was near the same day as last trading day......could not figure that out cause I've traded PM options and it usually the second Fri....(american style)....then I read about the OTC option market trades European style....only can exercise on the last trading day of the option.....got two option expirey days to watch....the OTC is bigger by far
This might "strike" your fancy:
http://optionsanalysis.com/inewf.htm
All the strikes, daily vol,OI,prices for ALL the things one may have a itch to trade...

Greetings to all. I am not quite up to speed yet. I understand POG and BOE but what of the rest? Thank you. This is a most interesting forum.

OTC Options "EVERYTHING" is sure correct at that webpage you suggested. I now need a course in reading all that technical stuff ! I sure can see the items that Peter was talking about too. So much to learn and so little time.
<;-)

Sure are difficult at times, are not they !
BIS = Bank for International Settlements
OTC = Over the Counter
OI = Open Interest
more as we see them.
<;-)

Old bookmark.....but interesting.....EMI, EMU,who got the gold...sort of stuff
http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Speeches/Sbc/Sbc.htm

Enjoy....

I did think the frb and treasury were two entities. So does the Federal Reserve really have any gold backing the $US? Would the BIS have claim to any frb assets due to our balance of payments deficit? I think I have much to learn.

thanks for the help so far tlc.

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Speeches/Sbc/Sbc.htmI'm learning.....slow.....but learning ...

I figured it out. Mozel isn't Another or FOA. He just lurks here as I lurk there. That is put to bed.

Next, here is one from that other site worthy of a repost here:

Date: Tue May 11 1999 15:05
Fergus (Gold, "The Manipulators", and the War on Gold) ID#14431:
Copyright � 1999 Fergus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FOXMAN's 23:56 yesterday reminded me of something that I wanted to share with you all. ( In his post, among other things, he stressed the importance of realizing that the manipulators have their concerns, as well, not just us goldbugs. )

I was a professional mediator for 12 years ( I even have a Master's Degree in Conflict Management, earned in the early 80s ) , and FOXMAN's post reminded me of something I had forgotten: people in conflict ( and we are in conflict with those who fear gold ) tend to feel their own weaknesses more than their own strengths. And in feeling that way, they tend to attribute the opposite condition to the other side.

In other words, if "I" am feeling weak, it must be because "you" are strong. Time after time, in separate meetings with parties in a mediation, I'd hear, amidst much bluster, "They think that we are afraid of moving forward on this case... They think this, they think that...", etc. When, in fact, the other side was thinking nothing of the sort--and I knew, too, 'cause the other side had told me in separate, confidential discussions what they really were thinking.

The bottom line is that BOTH sides were usually feeling their weaknesses more than their strengths. I must remember this. Here I have felt lousy and powerless, because of the gross manipulations of the POG over the years and up to this day.

Yet what I can choose to focus on instead is the weaknesses and anxieties of those on the other side of this conflict. And the reasons for the manipulators to be scared to death are legion. Here are a few:

1 ) As huge as the manipulation is, demand for the physical is strong, exceeds mined supply by about 1,500 tonnes per year at this point, and is soaring. Some entities are buying all this gold; the prospect for renewed, additional vigorous demand from Asia has got to be terrifying.

2 ) If indeed, the short overhang is anywhere from 4,000 to 14,000 tonnes ( I'll bet it's on the high end of that range ) , and growing every day, then the fragility of my position ( as a manipulator ) is being driven home at an increasing, accelerating rate. There is no way that gold will lose, in the end.

3 ) GATA is on to me. And they've gotten the U.S. Congress on their side. All my future moves are now seen in the clear light.

4 ) Who else can I get to agree to talk the price of gold down? Who's left? The Russians, Chinese, Japanese, the Euro countries? The oil countries? Yikes!

5 ) Y2K may ( will? ) limit the extent to which I can manipulate the markets, and may well cause a financial panic. Given the leverage extant in the system, and shocking level of derivatives in the U.S. and around the world, any meaningful level of withdrawl of funds from the fractional reserve banking system will bring it crashing down.

I could go on and on, as I'm sure others here can and will better than I.

My point is this: The manipulators have a ton of crap to worry about, and are undoubtedly feeling increasing amounts of pain in this conflict. Us goldbugs have only one worry: lasting long enough to gain the fruits of our insight and perseverance.

I've noticed something else about this war: holding gold equities increases the pain I feel. I feel more vulnerable to the machinations of the manipulators when the prices of my gold equity holdings gyrate around as the conflict roars; I feel even more so when I've held the juniors.

So, here's my prescription for peace of mind, in this order: buy physical, take delivery, relax, smile, and watch.

The war will be won. Not only do $5 or $10 dollar price fluctuations mean nothing when you are possess the golden yellow, the mere act of buying and taking delivery increases the pain on the opposition and accelerates the end of the manipulation. What a happy combination!

IDCIBM. And taking delivery

--end--

Finally, we are in the 3rd generation of posters ambiance. When we sensed gold would go up, Another and FOA talked in riddles and parables. Other sites discussed markets and other issues. Next came the recent rise in the XAU and then talk of a bull in gold increases in fury. Then the BOE issue came about. First there was shock but now I believe people realize that the 'flare' is extinguishing and we are coming to the end of the gold bear and soon to witness the gold bull. Spell crescendo.

Thanks to all for the excellent posts. I am learning here from you all, and you don't even know it.(s)


Education, I never force my children to do well in school, because it, the pressure drowns out their natural curiosity. Now that we have the Intenet leading us to places such as this forum, it will be easier and easier to home school our children (which we did for awhile). We are in a dynamic time, change is exciting and fast. Our children can be free to learn and see for themselves in a way as never before seen. I know this is of subject per se, but then again it really is not. We all here are learning.
What a great thing.

As far as the oil/gasoline thread. I have heard in the last two weeks that Venezuela and Mexico have not cut back as they declared they would. Venezuela is in dire need of cash. My hunch is this. If other countries are serious about shrinking supplies then perhaps Venezuela refineries will have....well shall we say mysterious problems, fires etc. I am not into conspiracies, but I believe in man's ability to do ill. Do not discount anything I tell my children, and I say it here to you (although I am sure I preach to the chior)Some oil companies are holding off purchases hoping that prices will come down some...wonder what happens if there are more fires etc.? The oil that they are waiting to buy will get pricey, will it not?

Thanks again for all your posts.

Let us assume, solely for the sake of this brief discussion, that the primary object of gold manipulation is to delay the inevitable economic/market downturn. The underlying motive is thus the securing of a temporary benefit. Who would benefit politically from such a temporary delay? I submit the Clintons. Bill's main defence against impeachment is the perceived strength of the economy/market ("it's the economy stupid" a la Carville). Also, he leaves as the President of Good Economic Times. Hilary gets the Senate seat in New York due to the alleged boom, and is in striking distance of the White House if the circumstances allow. She is thus compensated for years of humiliation (a philological breakthrough: What word should be coined for a female cuckold - a "hilary!"). I believe Bill is a true leftist masquerading as a centrist. If the Republicans win the presidency and hold the Congress in 2000 - as is likely - they wear the "crash" for 20 years, just as the Republicans and the Canadian Tories were destroyed for a generation because of the Depression (wrong place at the wrong time; the Canadian Tories got it a lot worse than the Republicans). If Gore wins, well that's his legacy, not Bill's.

What do the English get out of it? They get to exercise world power one last time, vicariously through the US. Also, Labourites either laugh at or fear gold, hence what's the loss for the gain in prestige by being the main junior partner to the Americans. (Remember: the Brits fear losing "the special relationship" with the US which has been a cornerstone of UK policy since the War. Suez taught the Brits they are powerless without the US, and they fear loss of influence with the US - note how they were devastated when Clinton attended the Russian celebrations of the 50th Anniversary of the end of the War, but not the British celebration.) Also, they hedge their bets in case they choose not to pursue the Euro(pean) option. (For example, Conrad Black has been promoting the idea of the UK joining NAFTA, in a sense recreating the old North Atlantic Triangle of the War-era.)

Well, that's my conspiracy rant for the month.

Aragorn III (5/11/99; 9:29:48MDT - Msg ID:5916)

Aragon III, Thank you for your kind words.

I look forward to your posts, because economics and finance are not my strong topics. Your comments, along with those of Michael, FOA and Another, and other fine minds here at the forum have helped me to make some sense of this "gold game."

I also appreciate your sense of humor: "got bread crumbs?" ;>)

BC

Chicken man (5/11/99; 20:17:31MDT - Msg ID:5958)

Thanks for the URL for OptionsAnalysis

BC

canamami, thanks for you last post.

I need to light up. Instead of trying to figure out who controls who in this gold-power game, I'd like to toss in some speculation mixed with a little fiction.

It is clear from FOA that the powers behind the golden throne are the barons of oil. Could this be the silent secretive Saudis?

Could it be that the Saudis went to the BIS years ago and said "lets sting those greedy bullion banks and dollar kings. If you'll loan out your gold, and keep the price down, we'll get it back via oil sales and when the right time comes we'll catch the shorters with their pants down."

The BIS boys, remembering being stung by the US in the 70s, jump in. Leasing and shorting go wild.

Just as the IMFers are getting stung and the BIS boys see their old power coming back, the Saudis whip out their gold/oil card and let the BIS boys know that the sting is on them and that the Saudis are now calling the shots.

Just as the Saudis take control, the US oil interests let the Saudis know that that the US has used all of its leasing/short money to become y2k compliant and the last day of Saudi control will be Dec 31, 1999. Oil power then shifts to the US who agree to sell oil to Europe in exchange for Euros!

Got sting repellant?

I wish to retract my somewhat glib statements earlier regarding the Bilderbergers and the New World order, globalism, one world government, or whatever one would choose to call it. I listened tonight to Charles Phillips and James Herson (sp) on the radio. The discussion focused on executive orders, presidential decrees, and their relationship to the events currently unfolding in America and the world. For me, it brought together many of the thoughts expressed here and other sources both now and over several years.

Tonight I am just plain scared. Our constitution, freedom, our sovereignty is in very serious jeopardy. I have loathed Bill Clinton from day one. He is absolute evil. I don't what the answer is, but I do know that it is time for another Boston Teaparty.

Made my last post before reading previous posts.

Will take your prescription and go to bed.
Tomorrow is another day. Thanks

@ Aristotle

Thank you for post 5933 replying to my post 5930.

You are writing that I was using the concept of reserves as the foreign exchange reserves that central banks use for the purpose of providing some means of international credibility for their currency and for tweaking their exchange rates if intervention on the open market becomes necessary. These reserves are some mix of international currencies and Gold.

I understand that central banks influence interest rates by buying and selling bonds. Are these bonds part of other reserves of central banks?

My personal library contains Von Mises's Human Action and The Theory of Money and Credit. Could I find the answer in these books or has the whole system changed since 1971 so that von Mises's books which were published before that date are no longer usable? - The IVH

$279.40.

Sir, I agree with your message completely. Every aspect of this administration has been a study in disasters --- personal, institutional, military, political, whatever. As the saying goes, "The fish stinks from the head first." Take that, Mr. Clinton. Couple your comments with millions who have similar feelings and add the uncertainty of the effects of Y2K and you got a whole bunch of nervous, scared and frustrated folks out there. How long folks will put up with this state is a question that soon needs to be answered instead of some silly and useless White House summit meeting about youth violence.
I'm ready to stock up on the Lipton's and join the Party.

Professor von Braun
The Rocket School of Economics

May 10th, 1999

We have made mention before of the discrepancy between the supply and
demand numbers for gold published by Goldfields Mineral Services (GFMS)
and the published turnover on the London Bullion and Metals exchange
(LBMA). This "difference" is huge. Even though this turnover dropped
to 27 million ounces per day according to recent announcements, this
number still amounts to 900 tonnes per day. The entire worlds known above
ground gold reserves are traded two and one half times per year (????) Yet
the supply /demand numbers are estimated at 4000 tonnes on the demand side
and 2600 tonnes on the supply side per annum.

The LBMA numbers include paper contracts and the percentage of what is
what (paper vs physical) re the daily turnover has never been revealed.
The daily turnover on the New York Comex is minute when compared to the
LBMA.

It has been known for some time that there exists an unknown large short
position in the gold market that has resulted from the sale of leased gold
into the market (with the intention of buying it back at a lower price)
and these sales have certainly made up the estimated 40% shortfall on the
supply side.

The continual noises coming out of the Bank of England about large
potential sales have been going on for some time. Gordon Brown, the
Chancellor of the Exchequer, (a very high faluting name) has been
bleating for some time. Pre Euro days he was insistent that the ECB would
be a seller (didn't happen), then it was the Swiss sale (has not happened
yet), then it was the IMF sale (still has not happened), and now it is the
Bank of England itself. So what gives here? What are these people
actually up to ?

If ALL Central Banks sold all the gold reserves they had over a period of
fifteen years (1600 x 15 = 24,000) there would still be a shortfall re the
supply/demand situation. In other words in fifteen years time gold would
still be in short supply re the demand side of the equation. Fifteen
years is not a long period of time in the over all scheme of things. Gold
as a currency and symbol of wealth has been around for several thousand
years and as much as Gordon Brown may prefer otherwise, this is not about
to change.

What the dear old Chancellor may not be telling us is that gold can not
simply be produced out of thin air as can paper currencies. All these
bleatings are telling us that something is not right here. What could it
be ?

Regardless of the rhetoric there is no real reason to demolish the gold
market. A falling gold price is not reflective of the true market supply
and demand situation.

The members of the LBMA are of course bullion banks, many of whom are
directly connected to the old traditional banking houses of Europe and the
U.K. Not much goes on in Europe that these people don't know about. The
same connections go directly to the Bank of England and the Federal
Reserve and the same players names appear as part owners of both of these
institutions. In a sense dear old Gordon is a proxy for the LBMA members
and any statements coming from him, or his office, should be regarded with
suspicion at the very least. The wisdom of pre- announcing a sale of
anything into a rising market is not exactly a prudent strategy. Its a bit
like Ford announcing a discount on current models because they believe
next years cars will be cheaper still. The buyers will wait.

Surely the Bank of England has a fiduciary duty to it's shareholders
(bullion banks) to obtain the maximum benefit from the sale of any of it's
reserves. Unless of course dear old Gordon knows something that we don't.

What is known at present is that there is a shortage of physical metal in
the market place, as demonstrated by the supply demand numbers issued by
GFMS and seconded by the World Gold Council. What is not known is the
reality of the magnitude of the published numbers re the turnover on the
LBMA. (How is it possible to trade the entire known gold reserves 2 1/2
times per year when at least 40% of that amount is in vaults somewhere?).
This number becomes even more absurd if one looks at the estimates of the
amount of actual physical metal available to be traded.

How much of this turnover is physical metal and how much is paper
contracts ? This is the question.

If there was a potential problem, then the members of the LBMA would be
the first to be aware of it and being based in London, would have to
advise the B of E at some stage. London*s big problem is its decline as
the financial center of Europe, an event currently unfolding as the ECB
begins to exert is new found power and financial transactions are moved to
European cities.

The only problem the LBMA and its members could be facing would be one of
delivery of physical metal. There simply is not a lot of gold out there
available for immediate delivery. The rush to embrace all forms of
derivative contracts and trade these "things" willy nilly as they say,
has led to one near collapse of recent times and I am referring to the
Long Term Capital (LTCM) debacle. But messing with paper contracts that
are dependent upon delivery of a physical commodity is a different ball
game. Instructing lenders to deliver a capital injection to LTCM is
different from instructing members to deliver physical metal to the metals
market. Not so easy to do, old chap.

While most look at these announcements of potential official sector sales
(the ones that don't materialize), as further evidence of gold's now
redundant role, perhaps it may be a desperate attempt to induce the
appearance of actual physical metal into a market that may be in deep
smellies. We all know that politicians and central bankers have several
things in common and the inability to recognize reality is one of them.

The belief in their own ability to manipulate reality is another, as is
underestimating their opponents intelligence.

One would sincerely hope that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is not
involved in advising NATO as to what actually is a legitimate target. It
seems that the same sort of arrogance which results from a false belief in
ones ability to lie ones way out of a screw up appears common to both. As
does the refusal to acknowledge the original mistake. Mistaking the
Chinese Embassy for some legitimate Yugoslavian military target may be
symptomatic of an ability to get it wrong in other areas as well. It was a
mistake, albeit a serious one, of "officialdom", the same
"officialdom" that seems determined to mess with the gold market.

These recent gurgles and hollow bleatings by the good Chancellor may be a
clear signal that it is time to go long the physical gold market and be
cautious on futures contracts that are dependent upon delivery sometime in
the future.

Professor von Braun is a guest contributor to www.lemetropolecafe.com and
may be contacted by email at profvonb@aol.com
Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission