USAGOLD Discussion - May 1999

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Oregon Geezer
(05/01/1999; 03:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 5427)
Thanks to TownCrier
I personally want to thank you for the time and effort you put in writing headlines and then providing direct connections to the sources. It is all very informative.
SteveH
(05/01/1999; 04:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 5428)
A mirror view of a view here...
from kitco about a post here:

mozel (@Somebody @usagold suggests watching Comex gold trading Open Interest now, ) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
because this should be the place where local ( US based ) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold ( perceived or other wise ) . ( President's Working Group on Financial Institutions exposure )
Private investment funds, that have raised capital through any form of gold short securities, may be asked to expose their "risk". The full group of investment entities may also be expanded to include "any" other parties that have dealings or actual exposure to these funds that are short. In essence, every major player in the gold market could be looking for a way to "neutralize" their books to scrutiny. Even though your exposure may have come from the unregulated part of the OTC world gold market, if one is "hedged long" on a "politically acceptable" exchange, then your position is "politically not at risk"! The books stay closed.

So why watch Comex, open interest? If a certain political faction suddenly changed direction and wanted to revalue gold as an asset to lend money against, the fastest way to do it is to drive currency traders into the paper gold traded on comex. When looked at in this light, gold takes on a very different appearance than the commodity we thought it was. If you notice, on Thursday, Comex gold traded app.. 45,000 contracts and rose $3.00+. Yet the OI dropped 11,000+. Today, a friday, some 60,000 ( estimated ) contracts were traded and it rose $.50. This general trend should continue, in that every time there is a major closing of speculative positions, the next day should show high volume. The major players are taking advantage of shorts closing and buying "insurance". Over the next months, OI should increase greatly! We will watch and learn.
-end-

Yet we all know insurance companies must have reserves sufficient to fill any claims. Only problem with shorts hedging their bets as evidenced by open interest rising is that their will be too many claims and not enough reserves causing a bankruptcy of delivery triggering self-protective rule changes as evidence by what happened to the Hunts during the last great Silver bull of 1979-80. 1999 is developing into the most interest year.
Christine
(05/01/1999; 07:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 5429)
@FOA--Gold is currency, fiat is fiat
FOA, you wrote at 23:30 4-30 (Thank you): "My point is that some people still look at gold as a currency that is so undervalued it's ridiculous. They accept it with the (inside?)
knowledge that the dollar is going to plunge. Not because politicians will force it down, but because politicians have forced it up for
so long. The
true conspiracy was in the dollar reserve standard, not gold."

Although I strongly agree that many have misunderstood and undervalued gold, I do not think those most powerful ever have misunderstood gold. Again, many of those powers also rest their power on top of the U.S. This is where my view of conspiracy originates. The most powerful know what is going on with fiat money versus gold. Somewhere I read, but was not yet smart enough to have saved it for reference, that a larger portion of world gold is held in private hands than by CB's. These are the powers that I am talking about. They know full well the implications of gold versus fiat, and have known it all along. They are the ones I view as controlling and shaping what is happening.
Chicken man
(05/01/1999; 08:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 5430)
FOA - Question... if I may?
Enjoy the "riddle" theme of you and your friend!
Question: In this battle for world power,do you see that control of food might be a weapon? The Chinese have $150 billion IOU's from the US gov.What could they possibly buy from the US other than food? This would cause more damage to our economy than bombs. Could we have a grain robberery coming up? Could this be the catalist to inflation,weak $ and a world run on the precious metals?
Thanks for your time,effort and sharing of insite!
canamami
(05/01/1999; 09:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 5431)
Weekend Posting - FOA + Notable Op-Ed Pieces
A couple of things have prompted me to again break my posting moratorium.

First, FOA, I would like to echo the comments of The Stranger at post# 5379. To use the language of Economics 101, I have read your recent posts and they have contributed to a favourable "shift in the curve" in my level of understanding of gold's role and behaviour.

Second, in my weekend reading I have come across a couple of gems by Donald Coxe, who is a well-known market commentator in Canada and whom I believe is the chief mutual fund strategist for the Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank and affiliated companies. (MK - I am not advertising for any bank, but merely providing background info so non-Canadian readers will have some sense of the source of the opinion). I will directly quote three paragraphs from an op-ed piece in today's (May 1, 1999) Globe and Mail, entitled "Is the world safe at last for commodity investors?":

Apart from guilt by association, the precious metals stocks haven't benefited much from this resource rally. Reason: The same political leaders who got the West into a war that promises to be costly, messy and long - after promising us it would be cheap, civilized and short - have announced that the International Monetary Fund should sell bullion from its gold hoard to pay off debts from bankrupt nations.

This strategy is being pushed piously, with the backing of the Pope. It may be motivated cynically, with the backing of shrewd ex-trader, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Announcements of monster pending sales naturally drive down prices of the merchandise to be dumped.

Since gold has been a reliable inflation indicator for at least four millennia, weakening its price at a time of soaring oil prices is politically smart. It will help convince economists and central bankers that disinflation or even deflation is still at work, despite rapid money supply growth and some of the lowest interest rates the world has seen.

I repeat: These views are expressed by a well-known market commentator who is the chief strategist for one of the Big Five chartered banks, in the more established of the two English-language national newspapers. It would appear that some of the views expressed in this Forum are now arguably mainstream, at least in Canada.

The second gem is found in the Spring 1999 edition of a mail-out called "NewsLine". After decrying the Internet-stock mania, Coxe writes: "In retrospect, the second best thing you could have done a year ago was to put your money into Internet stocks. (The best thing would have been to buy the winning Lotto ticket.)"

The above quotation reminds me of a comic short story I read in high school, I believe by Somerset Maugham. It was about a hard-working, dutiful man who is always bailing out a wastrel of a playboy brother. The playboy brother eventually marries a dish of a mega-heiress, thereby securing a better "outcome" than his more worthy brother. Nobody reputable ever promised Absolute Justice or Fairness in This World (or perhaps any world). Sometimes bonehead pseudo-investors make millions speculating in companies that will never make a profit. Sometimes scumbags win the lottery, or sleazeballs get the girl. But, more often than not, the good guys secure some measure of justice.

Justice and good times to all goldbugs (especially USAGOLDbugs).

Gandalf the White
(05/01/1999; 10:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 5432)
Looking at my Crystal Ball
The outlook from the Crystal Ball for this next week on the DOW is very dark, while the XAU and GOLD will continue to shine brightly. BUT now remember, only the ORCS take my investment advise !
Thanks all for the truely educational posts !!
<;-)
Julia
(05/01/1999; 10:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 5433)
How much gold do we really have to sell?
http://www.fgmr.com/unthinkable.htmThis is an old article but with a story to think about today. Can anyone comment on this article?
Thanks, Julia
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 11:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 5434)
Gandalf
Even if only the "Oil Reserve Countries" take your advice and dump their stocks to buy Gold, it will be an interesting week
Christine
(05/01/1999; 11:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 5435)
@Julia--How much gold is left?
Hi! IMHO, and strictly opionion. As I posted earlier today, those who are really in power are totally aware of the value of gold and how undervalued it was at that time and is now, and would never have sanctioned/allowed gold reserves to be sold off in that manner.
Jon
(05/01/1999; 14:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 5436)
U.S. gold storage
Several days ago I suggested that supposed storage may be a myth.
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 14:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 5437)
Christine
I suspect that "those who are really in power" are the ones who would have *bought* the gold if this scenario really occured. Likewise, I suspect that the current multi- year slamming of gold is for the purpose of those, who are really in power, to acquire it. As many of you have agreed over the recent week's posts, the insiders know the true value of Gold as well as we do. Therefore, the only plausible explanation for the *illogical* actions of the gold trade, is the totally logical purpose of wishing to accumulate massive quantities of it.

The immediate future is fraught with wild cards. Values of anything; Stocks, Bonds, Currency even Farms or Timberland, are subject to unknown future events. We know that gold is the way to store value (and accumulate profit) during a period of chaos. To paraphrase one of my favorite quotes: People look at the actions of the gold trade and say "Why?" I look at it all and say "Why not?"
Christine
(05/01/1999; 15:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 5438)
@Peter Asher--I don't disagree with what you say
Just would add that those with extreme power depend upon some political and financial stability of the system they sit atop. Otherwise, their stability is jeopardized also.
FOA
(05/01/1999; 15:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 5439)
canamami
canamami (5/1/99; 9:39:41MDT - Msg ID:5431)
All: please reread #5431 as my reply is for this post.

Hello canamami,
I am happy that your reading here has prompted a further break in said "posting moratorium"!The thoughts and reflections of others help everyone to view the world in a different light. Our bodies are not engineered to see 360 degrees at once. Therefore, at any moment in time,
someone else will always see something hidden by our lack of complete visual perception.

For, myself, Mr. Donald Coxe displays the same style of thinking that has cost many investors dearly during the 90s. He correctly states "gold has been a reliable inflation indicator for at least four millennia" but then associates the correct investment plan to play this "historical precedent" was to hold "precious metal stocks"! Search the western world of investment professionals and we will find the exact same thinking in almost every case. Billions of dollars have been lost using this very style of "association", yet even in the face of these loses, they will still buy shares instead of gold bullion. Why? Because every holder of modern currency is using their present "life trend experiences" to dictate the possible future value of gold! Even the well written history of paper
money, with all of it's chronicled destruction, cannot convince modern man that Gold can and will fully demoney paper! In our present lifetime! Yes, these shrewd trust managers can only accept that the value of gold will only increase to it's commodity value plus a premium for inflation. Hence they buy into the commodity story of gold and hold shares.

Standing upon a hill and looking in the same direction, none of them will view the other 180 degrees of history that is quickly approaching them. Today, the IMF appeals to the governments to use gold as a currency. It will be sold, yet no buyers will be listed! The books will be squared and show 10 million less gold, yet none of it has left the vaults. The bullion is "securitized" and multiplied into billions of loan guarantees, yet we only hear that it was sold to feed hungry people. During the past few years, millions and millions of ounces are leased, loaned and borrowed with
only four or five hundred tonnes shown as deleted from total worldwide CB books, yet we are told they are selling it completely.

Yes, my friend, gold is returning to it's centuries old roots, as it is used as the last resort for financing in a failing debt ravaged, outdated currency reserve system. I submit, that managing the price of gold lower has helped create, what the gentleman has pointed out, as the "rapid money supply growth and some of the lowest interest rates the world has seen". That effort has got us this far today without a currency collapse. The "influence" of low gold created the energy to effect this present state of affairs. Now, that energy has been used up. Now, gold will be managed UP in a final washout of the dollar. Holding physical gold, now will provide a return in proportion to it's past position as "the asset class".

This act will play out again today, just as history dictates. In reference to your post, I add:

The "Good Guy" will "get the girl", "win the lottery" and "never have to make a profit doing it! All because he (she) was dumb enough to hold gold!
thanks for reading FOA


FOA
(05/01/1999; 16:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 5440)
Christine
Christine (5/1/99; 7:30:46MDT - Msg ID:5429)

You give these world leaders a lot of credit for knowing all about gold! My problem is that your credit to them is out of context. Any smart politician will never act to build on a system that denies "money creation". That is the mind set they apply to gold, and for them, the only one that counts. It, by nature, works against their agenda. Just as in my post to canamami (#5439), I again submit that most major western leaders want to use "gold the commodity" as an "asset creation" mechanism for their constituency benefit, not for the creation of a stable financial reserve. Always, when a politician is under pressure, they think of gold in the "present trend", it's a commodity that we can borrow from. Just don't let it into our house to control us.

This is where we are, today. The demand for gold from entities that want to remove dollars from reserves is creating a "piggy bank" for dollar / IMF countries to borrow from. Your supposedly, knowledgeable leaders don't understand that they are using the last asset in line.
Truly, they will be very surprised to learn when the gold they "sold", so to speak, was loaned out so very cheaply. But, fear not, it will be the other gold "in the ground" that they will not be so dumb not to attach! FOA



Chris Powell
(05/01/1999; 16:24:49 MDT - Msg ID: 5441)
Statement by GATA's Bill Murphy
These remarks by Bill Murphy, chairman of the
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and patron of
www.lemetropolecafe.com, may be of interest.

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

-------------------------------------------------

Statement by Bill Murphy, Chairman, GATA

I would like to thank so many of you for your
feedback after my email about my concern over the
lack of press attention to Chairman Saxton's
Press Release and to the fact that not one
newspaper in the United States printed Janet Whitman's
Dow Jones Newswire story about GATA.

There was note one in particular that I thought you
might enjoy. John has been a friend for some time and
is a big fan of the Cafe. He is also very well known
and highly respected in his field:

Dear Bill,

I haven't been in touch lately because we're working
to finance our return to an active site and it's
more time-consuming than expected. I read your good
stuff, however and I can explain why you can't get the
news media interested in GATA.

The problem is that the regular media are terrified
of being out there alone with a controversial story.
Ben Bradlee has said that if no one else had picked up
on Watergate he was within a week of dropping the story.

The press pretends to be anti-establishment, but it's
very reluctant to take any information from an
unofficial source. So, the only way you really get
information is to read all the non-estabishment stuff,
especially the extreme Right and Left. The Right wing
American Spectator magazine had the Indonesian connection
with Clinton more than a year before the NY Times
"discovered" it.

As a reporter, I have run into this all my life. I've
come in with a hot story and unless official sources
confirmed it they wouldn't run the piece. I tried to get
a story about massive theft from air cargo at JFK in TIME
for two years and always got shot down because the FBI
wouldn't admit it. Off the record they told me it was true,
but they had territorial problems.

Some years ago a black teenaged girl in Peekskill claimed
she'd been attacked by a gang of white cops. Sensational
front page in the Times, TIME, Newsweek, TV, etc. And then
a few weeks later a reporter from The Village Voice and
a guy from some non-network local TV station went up there
to get details--and found out that the story was a hoax.
The chief crime reporter from the Times found it hard to
look me in the eye and explain why they didn't bother
to go and check. The reason: it seemed to be police
brutality and the media WANTED it to be true.

GATA is unofficial and making what seem outrageous claims
against the establishment. So, they ignore GATA and
listen to Goldie and Rubin and others who probably call
your operation a bunch of nutty speculators.

The story is also hard to understand and that also
makes editors nervous. Finally, the official position that
gold is just another commodity is pretty much accepted
by the media. (Still, I'm surprised that Crudele hasn't
said anything. He's pretty good at doing odd-ball stories)

Your best hope is that Congress will get interested and
say so to the press. Another possibility: go to American
Spectator. Still, the official line will be to ridicule it
and deny it with self- righteous indignation. "How dare you
suggest that the Treasury and Wall Street are part of a
giant conspiracy!"

Assuming that Congress does look into it, and comes up
with some convincing evidence, the official line will be
that they are "Shocked! Shocked! that some offshore hedge
funds and such would try to rig the gold market." And the
Treasury and White House will see to it that the
malefactors are punished.

Finally, they will want to make sure that none of the bad
guys really get hit in the pocketbook. So, they might try
doing what President Grant did to break the corner in
gold engineered by Fisk and Gould: release tonnes of
AU from Fort Knox. Knowing how Clinton & Co work I would
not find this at all surprising. And they will be very
convincing explaining how they managed to step in an
avoid a worldwide panic.

When our 'net site is running again [ ClickOnMoney.com ]
I will be giving GATA plenty of space.

all best,
John

Thank you John and we will give you as much exposure as we
can.

GATA has received some special interest from members of
the Dallas, Texas community. Certain individuals learned
that Jerome Marcus is one of our attorneys and it caught
their attention.

For those of you that are not familiar with Jerome, I will
quote the following from the front page of the New York
Times - Jan 23, 1999:

"Quietly, a Team of Lawyers Kept Paula Jones's Case Alive"

This time last year, Hillary Rodham Clinton described in a
now-famous appearance on the NBC News program "Today," how
a vast right-wing conspiracy" was trying to destroy her
husband's Presidency.

As it turns out, some of the most serious damage to Bill
Clinton's Presidency came not from his high-profile political
enemies but from a small secret clique of lawyers in their
30's who share a deep antipathy toward the President,
according to nearly two dozen interviews and recently filed
court documents.

While cloaking their roles, the lawyers were deeply involved -
to an extent not previously known - for nearly five years
in the Paula Jones sexual misconduct lawsuit. They then helped
push the case into the criminal arena and into the office of
the independent counsel, Kenneth W. Starr. The group's
leader was Jerome M. Marcus, a 39-year-old associate at the
Philadelphia law firm of Berger & Montague, whose partners
are major contributors to the Democratic Party.

Although Ms Jones never met him or knew he had worked on her
behalf, Mr. Marcus drafted legal documents and was involved
in many of the important strategic decisions in her
lawsuit, according to billing records and interviews and
interviews with other lawyers who worked on the case. As
much as any of Ms. Jones's attorneys of record, Mr. Marcus
helped keep Ms. Jones's case alive in the courts."

Thus, as a result of very recent interest in GATA from the
Southwestern part of the U.S., I have decided to move
to Dallas, Texas on May 15 so that I may be more effective
and productive as GATA Chairman.

Bill Murphy

-END-



Christine
(05/01/1999; 16:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 5442)
Hello, FOA,
Am not referring to leaders per se, am referring to those who have the real power above the "leaders". 120,000 metric tons of gold exist. Only 40,000 tons belong to CB's. That leaves 80,000 tons in private hands, some of whom are extraordinarily powerful. IMHO, they are the ones pulling the strings on this. This may unfold as you say, but I do believe that the very powerful know exactly where it will end. It unfolds by their design, and to their benefit--mo one elses.
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 16:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 5443)
FORUM BUSINESS...
Canamami and FOA: Two brilliant posts for the newly inaugurated USAGOLD Hall of Record

Recorded by number here for archival purposes this first day of May, 1999 Nos. 5431 and 5439

Thank you for sharing your insights, Canamami and FOA.

******************

ALL:

This Hall of Record will be established as a permanent file to be accessed through the USAGOLD Home Page. The page will be established once the first twenty posts are selected. These are the first two.

In order for this Hall of Record to become a Permanent Institution established by this Table Round, we will require ten supporting posts seconding the motion.

Thank you, my fellow knights and ladies, let the Hall of Record become the keeping place of our most memorable and important posts -- a place of honor in which entrance should not be taken lightly.

Member recommendations will be considered by either e-mail or posting to the FORUM.
Christine
(05/01/1999; 17:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 5444)
MK--Have you
been watching Louis Ruckeyser in the closet?
Aristotle
(05/01/1999; 17:06:15 MDT - Msg ID: 5445)
Money supply for Julia, and a scrolling exercise for the Fed exec's among us.
A day has passed, but you probably recall asking if either M1, M2, or M3 might be a more important indicator than the others. Things changed in mid 1993, but I'll give you some insight into how it used to be. and in case anyone is joining us late, let's review by brief answer to your question about these monetary aggregates so they don't have to go searching.

<Julia and M3
Here is a quick explanation to get you started. M1, M2, and M3 are simply the shorthand name for monetary aggregates measuring different "kinds" of money.
M1 is the money in readily spendible form...cash and checking accounts (transacton deposits). M2 adds on the savings deposits and short time deposits, while M3 further adjusts for institutions' assets and liabilities.
In a nutshell, it is a measure of the nation's money supply.>>

In conducting monetary policy, the Fed monitors money supply and 'spending habits' in an effort to smooth out the tendency toward boom and bust economic cycles. They have three primary tools with which to effect the real world as deemed prudent under their monetary policy roadmap. These are 1) changing the reserve requirement, 2) changing the discount rate, and 3) open market operations.

I'll admit, that looks completely worthless when considering the audience is maybe only now dipping its toe into the deep financial waters for the first time, as evidenced by the week's past questions about overnight repurchase agreements and the nature of these monetary aggregates. So, I'll try to peel the onion in such a manner to get to some terms or concepts that are more familiar...otherwise it will look like the same ol' mysterious onion all the way to the core. OK?

Let's start by revisiting my answer to beesting earlier, because it will help us here to understand the first tool mentioned above--changing reserve requirements.
<Repo's
Basically, banks have fractional reserve lending requirements that they must maintain at least 10% of their total demand deposits (checking accounts) on reserve as vault cash or on deposit at the Federal Reserve System of banks. Because this required reserve money does not earn interest, banks keep this level on deposit as close to 10% as possible (averaged over two week periods). Any extra reserves tend to be invested in things that generate money, such as U.S. Treasuries. These act as interest bearing savings deposits for the bank. When the various banks need to withdraw money from 'savings' to satisfy customer demand for cash and to replenish their required cash reserves, the Fed repurchases these US Govt securities for cash...essentially adding the needed reserves back into the banking system. Hope this gets you started. ---Aristotle>>

You can see that as this reserve requirement is raised or lowered from 10%, the amount of money that must be set aside changes, and with it, the multiplier effect of fractional reserve lending. If it were raised to 50%, for example, for every two dollars a bank holds in a transactional account (checking account), it must keep one on reserve, but can lend the other to a different person. This increases the money supply by the amount lent. Theoretically, a 50% reserve requirement could, if played out with all loans being redeposited in transactional accounts, result in a doubling of the money supply. Similarly, a 10% reserve requirement could increase the money supply by a multiplier of 10! Five percent would have a multiplier of twenty! This value is RARELY changed, as its effect is very tumultuous and is a drastic action, particularly if it is raised!

It is important to remember that this reserve requirement applies only to these checkable deposits, and not to savings deposits, which have reserve requirements of ZERO! Other than a banker's prudence or conservatism, there is nothing to prevent them from lending it all away, and theoretically, if redeposited in savings accounts, this could expand the money supply infinitely!

OK, now for that second tool toward influencing money supply-- changing the discount rate. This is the interest rate at which the Federal Reserve System will lend to banks that choose to borrow money to meet their reserve requirements. If this money may be cheaply borrowed, the banks may opt for this avenue to replenish depleted reserves rather than through repurchase agreements as explained above, especially if this rate is low. If it is high, it becomes costly for banks to replenish depleted reserves, and they therefore tend to hold them in excess rather than tempt fate at the marginal level.

So, back to M1, M2, and M3. Because the Fed can only influence banks across the land insofar as the reserve requirements allow a measure of restraint, and because these requirements apply only to the checking accounts, the Fed has only as much 'monetary policy leverage' as can be found within the M1 money supply. Naturally, you would think that this would be the indicator of primary importance to them. Actually, your own experience reveals how easily you may move money from savings accounts into checking accounts or cash, and the Fed is fully aware of this. For that reason, M2 gets a bit more attention in monetary policy decisions. As I'm typing this offline at the moment, I can't pull up recent figures for examples, but I happen to have on my desk a chart from 1993 to give you an idea for the magnitude of these numbers. (((On my June1993 chart, M1 was 1.1 trillion, M2 was 3.5 trillion, and M3 was 4.2 trillion dollars))) As I have done enough here, I hope someone else will take it upon themselves to post 1999 numbers as soon as they read this plea.

The third tool, open market operations, is exactly what the name implies, but you have to know what market they are referring to! The bond market, of course. In regard to influencing the amount of cash reserves available within the banking system, this functions very much as the repo program I explained above. The key difference, however, is that the buying or selling of US Bonds takes place on the open market rather than through overnight repurchase agreements. This means that the buying and selling prices are subject to the competitive supply and demand pricing pressures that are brought to bear by any bondholders in addition to the private banks.

As I said at the beginning, the Fed moved away from their M2 'yardstick' in mid-1993, perhaps as a necessary reaction to some of the same events that ANOTHER has said brought us to where we are today with the dollar poised for collapse. (Gulf war expenses, and all additional expansionary forces that brought the money supply to all new, unmeaningful heights. And I say unmeaningful only in the regard that it meant nothing for the future management of sound monetary policy, as the money was now revealed to be UNSOUND.) The decision to abandon the M2 yardstick was further justified by the growing trend for people to keep their cash in mutual fund money market accounts, which don't appear in the M2 aggregate, making it even harder for the Fed to meaningfully measure cash supplies as an indicator of economic growth. Since then, they have moved toward an effort at setting target real interest rates (current interest rate minus inflation rate) that they believe are sustainable. Good luck! This castle is not only built out of sand, but is also well below the high-tide line. Sheeeeeeesh!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 17:10:53 MDT - Msg ID: 5446)
Christine....
I only heard the "whoosh" as that one went over my head. Perhaps you could expand on that?

Actually I'm watching Titanic. I never saw it before because I didn't want to bother with a movie where I knew the ending.
Christine
(05/01/1999; 17:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 5447)
MK--Louis Ruckeyser's PBS investment program
has a Hall of Fame of investment guru's--I think there are about 20 guru's in it now. Actually, Louis Ruckeyser has nothing kind to say about gold, but I still think he is way cool anyway. Actually, now that I recall, two of his three guru guests this week stated they thought we are now in a major transition back into cyclicals and commodities. I know, gold is not a commodity, but it certainly has some of commodity properties.
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 17:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 5448)
Christine...
As far as I know, Louis Ruykeyser has not registered to post though we would welcome him here -- his "public" views notwithstanding.

Do you think that good ole Louis secretly owns gold? I do. Someone with that deep a reverence for money would have to. I am watching the surprisingly strong end to Titanic. "A woman's heart is a deep ocean, " says Rose Dawson. Gold is a deep ocean as well.
SteveH
(05/01/1999; 18:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 5449)
Question for FOA
Must dash for dinner but wanted to ask about this quote: "Truly, they will be very surprised to learn when the gold they "sold", so to speak, was loaned out so very cheaply. But, fear not, it will be the other gold 'in the ground' that they will not be so dumb not to attach! FOA"

If I were to surmise a strategy of investment then I would presume that gold stocks, be they big, be they small, would be a poor long term shot at the big marker. Rather, perhaps, in the short to medium term they may be good but once the PTB (powers to be) see the fire through the smoke, the PTB will dowse the flames of gold by throwing gold mines directly in to it and removing us small fire fighters from the picture. OR do I have this all wrong about the timing or for that matter at all?





Gandalf the White
(05/01/1999; 18:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 5450)
Proposed "Hall of Record(s)"
I, Gandalf the White, being of sou---- oh well, I second the motion, BUT suggest that the prior GREAT posts be considered for inclusion also.
<;-)
Tomcat
(05/01/1999; 18:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 5451)
Aristotle, Christine, FOA

Aristotle sir. Thanks for spending the time on M1, M2, M3 etc. Very helpful. The more I read your posts the more I realize how much you care for the members of this forum. I hope that for you, what goes around comes around and you are rewarded somehow in return.

Lady Christine. You remarked that there are 80,000 tons of gold in private hands. That translates to about 735 billion dollars worth of gold; no small amount. It would be facinating to know who the major holders of this gold are and where this gold is located. Perhaps the power on this planet could be defined by the major gold holders. I do not have the figures in front of me but the hot money on this planet due to drug trade is very high and according to some of the folks who wrote Drug Inc., the folks on top who control the drug trade control much more on this planet. I wonder if it is hard to launder gold?

FOA. Sir, your remarks about monitoring the open interest are inciteful and functional. Talking about gold is one thing but giving guidelines for us to take functional action is more than worthy of just a thank you. My hat is off to you.
Christine
(05/01/1999; 18:47:40 MDT - Msg ID: 5452)
Who owns the private gold
An example of one name I have read in numerous places is the Rothchilds. These are the kind of powers I am talking about. Exactly who they are is not that important to me at present, as is understanding what and how they are doing it.
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 19:08:50 MDT - Msg ID: 5453)
FOA, Christine, Michael
FOA, I was going to post an answer to your # msg.5540 , but I see Christine already took care of it. Nevertheless I would like to re-iterate and expand a bit on the "MOU" theme.

The people on top of the leaders are, of course, those who put them there in the first place. Personally, I think of Leaders as having "Handlers" IMCO,. (C for cynical). The other night, Michael, you referred to a Senator who had ideal qualities for a President. Well, he probably wouldn't be willing to cut the deal he'd need to, to get the support to be put in office. Again IMCO.

My own theory about Jack and Bobby was that they had too much of their own money, and that of their true followers, to be bought off. Lest this sound like "Abandon all hope, Ye who enter here", I think that throughout History, The good guy's have eventually prevailed by the majorities of the world persevering through enlightenment and good intentions.

The invention of the printing press has been credited with saving the world at that time. In this moment, we have WWW
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 19:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 5454)
Michael
I also move in favor off your hall of record, and I second Gandalf's motion. ( Although we might need an administrative volunteer to handle the backlogged posts.)
Richard, Oregon
(05/01/1999; 19:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 5455)
Thank You My Friends!
Stranger, Goldfly, myego33 - Thank you all for your aid in enlightening me regarding the British money systems of days gone by. All is truely appreciated and the link to British Adventures remarkable. I knew someone here would know. Again, thanks!
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 19:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 5456)
Re my #5454, Gadalf's #5450 & Michael's #5443
How about each poster submitting his favorite past essay for a vote, (Subject to MK agreement) with possibly an elaboration as to why they feel it should qualify.
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 19:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 5457)
Christine....
I thought I might take a stab at your question. I would start by saying that private ownership of gold might not be what it seems. James Turk has done some excellent work on the subject and my understanding of his conclusion is that for the most part the official gold that has been unloaded in the modern era (since 1971) has gone to millions of people all over the gold. In the United States where gold ownership was officially legalized in 1975, private citizens have built up a huge hoard -- possibly the largest on earth. But the truth is private holdings cannot be quantified and we may never know the real numbers. All we know for sure is that the gold has moved from weak hands -- the central banks -- to strong hands -- private citizens around the globe.

The gold that was moved out of the U.S. Treasury from the early 1960s through the early 1970s went for the most part into European coffers as they rebuilt their reserves at our expense. In recent years, if you believe in great historical trends, you might look to Asia and to a lesser degree, the Middle East, to see where the gold is going. Their huge export earnings have to go somewhere and only a fool would park their hard won profits in U.S. Treasuries only. If it is going there, it is likely to remain a closely guarded secret. If you were buying and you considered it a matter of national security would you make a public spectacle of it? In short, all those who have posted here that these cheap gold prices are benefiting someone are absolutely correct. I would not discount Asia and the Middle East now or in the recent past. At the same time, I wouldn't count out, as I indicate, private citizens all over the world, particularly in the United States

A word on conspiracy theories: I have been an admirer of Taylor Caldwell's work for most of my life. She was the one who penned in "Captains and Kings" that only a fool would believe otherwise -- or something along those lines -- on the question of whether or there is a conspiracy controlling world events. I must respectfully say that although I respect her writing enormously I haven't completely bought into that sentiment. I began my study of "the conspiracy theory of history" in the late 1960s -- believe it or not -- with Ferdinand Lundberg's "The Rich and the Super Rich" which postulated that the world economy was run by some 80 families who through inter-breeding were able to control the greatest corporations on earth by controlling the stock ownership. He believed that most corporations could be controlled with less than 10% voting ownerswhip if it were properly applied and concentrated and he many have been right. The primary question when you consider that seriously is "To what end?" In further study, I have discovered that "the establishment" is far from a monolith. It has all sorts of nooks and crannies, disagreements, feuding factions and the like. For years, Morgan with its British connections was in direct competition with Rothschild interests. They were appealing to the same monied groups as clients for their bond offerings. I don't know that it is much different today. If the Wall Street charade now being paraded before us is going to fall apart, it will be because some major banking/financial firm sees a chance to get a leg up on its adversaries and goes against the established trend, or wants to hedge its bets before everybody else does. That's the nature of the game. And that could very well be happening as we speak. Survival is the most important instinct we possess as human beings. Profit is an extension of that instinct. If my profit comes at the cost of beating you in the market, that takes precedence over whatever co-operations we indulged in previously. That happens at the level of competing hardware stores. That happens at the level of competing merchant banking firms. From the outside, we see Wall Street as a monolith. On the inside, I am certain it is seen as the jungle.

On the level of conspiracy in the gold market, I really do believe that if there is one it has to do with mutual self interest served by an accomodating business plan. The bullion banks have had their way and everybody was making big money at the same game -- gold lending and the carry trade. I agree with FOA that the new rules -- and they are now talking about international application -- could very well make that particular game less profitable if not a losing proposition. Some big players run the risk of being involved in various investigations at more than one level. That might explain action in both the gold and bond markets late last week. The public as it has gained an understanding of this game might collectively consider gold to be a good buy at these artificially maintained prices knowing that the gold shorting game, in the scheme of things, can't go on forever. More one than one top notch gold anlayst, and others, have maintained that the true equilibrium price should be in the $500 to $600 range. Those on the short side of the market are painfully aware they are on borrowed time as well.

Then, of course, there is the question of hubris....but that's another, more philosophical discussion for another time.
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 19:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 5458)
Peter and Gandalf....
I will leave this open to discussion but let's just say that you got my attention.
FOA
(05/01/1999; 19:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 5459)
Reply
Chicken man (5/1/99; 8:44:42MDT - Msg ID:5430)


Hello Chicken Man,
Your post is written from a standpoint of "a battle for world power". Well, I don't think it's as much a battle, but rather a sliding of assets from one place to another. More like untied cargo in a ships hole during a storm. The task (battle) is to lash the "assets" down in one place before they sink the ship! Please go to Aragorn III (4/26/99; 6:49:34MDT - Msg ID:5170), as it gives an excellent description, using most appropriate language (he said what I could not).
I would think your "grain robbery" scenario will come about. However, it will be but one part of the "cargo" sliding around the ship. America can expect to receive a "sudden impact" from all of these overseas dollars once it is realized they will lose most of their value. Local US investors will do well investing in almost any useful, needed, exportable basic product. Many an investment
advisor, with commodity tunnel vision, will tout their "single idea" as proof of how good they are. I say, money into commodities will be the same as ".com" stocks. No brainer?

Also, Michael (UsaGold),
Thanks for the mention about my post. It is hard to describe the other 180 degrees. How was Titanic? FOA


The Stranger
(05/01/1999; 20:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 5460)
Call Me Rapt
Aristotle- I take back what I said about you not paying attention in Econ. 101. Your money/banking lectures are very much appreciated by me, my friend. I actually passed a test on this stuff 22 years ago but have retained only what I thought I needed to know. As money growth has been the basis for my oft-repeated reinflation prediction, I suppose it is time I got with the program.

Since you asked, I hereby provide this week's monetary aggregates, taken from Friday's Wall Street Journal. Numbers are in billions.
M1-1,123.6
M2-4,557.6
M3-6,141.9

I might add that you are one very honest person to admit that you keep numbers from 1993 on your desk. No one else I know would every have the courage to let such a bizarre idiosyncracy come to light!
(By the way, isn't it great to have someplace to go where you can talk about something as mind-numbing as banking and have everybody's rapt attention? What a life!)


Speaking of bizarre idiosyncracies, Michael, I hope you know that none of us expects you to carry on posting at the forum while you are watching "Titanic", for crying out loud. My God, man, you have got to learn to relax!


USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 20:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 5461)
By the way, Christine...
I want to thank you for adding so much to the conversation around here. If I haven't said it before: Welcome to this Table Round.
Christine
(05/01/1999; 20:09:18 MDT - Msg ID: 5462)
OK MK, As FOA and Another like to say
We will all watch this unfold together, yes. Of course they fight at the very top, too. But that doesn't mean they also don't get together to advance their aims-- kind of like this forum. (-:>~
USAGOLD
(05/01/1999; 20:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 5463)
Replies:
FOA... A good, but not great movie carried by special effects....the older Rose Dawson was great.

Stranger....This is relaxation. Too wet to golf. Wife and daughter off working at a charity benefit. Home Alone!

Aristotle...I want to join the chorus expressing my appreciation for your excellent background briefings. They are first class and I am certain the boys over at MIT Sloane School of Business couldn't do better....I'm certain.

All: Sorry for typos in long post.
Julia
(05/01/1999; 20:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 5464)
Hall of Record
I vote for this great idea, Michael.

I'd like to see the selected posts catalogued according to the predominent subject or idea addressed in the post rather than by date or msg #. Then how about having an index or table of contents of those subjects discussed for easier discovery?

Thanks. Julia
FOA
(05/01/1999; 21:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 5465)
Reply
SteveH (5/1/99; 18:10:10MDT - Msg ID:5449)


Hello SteveH,
Yes, Steve, you have it about right. I have to admit that money will be made in gold stocks. They will move until action is taken against them. The problem is that anyone that would truly understand and agree that physical gold will return much more, would have to say, why bother with stocks? I offer these guideline problems (Tomcat!) to watch in a functional way.

We are dealing with two phases that will impact gold stocks. The first will be the falling world stock markets in general, particularly the US. The decline, this time, will not be like in the 70s when gold and metal stocks went up as the markets fell. This downturn will be the result of a
"collapse" of the reserve currency system and the resulting "strategic repositioning of assets" worldwide. Indeed, a big difference from a (70s) falling equity market as a result of relatively minor inflation (13%). This new downturn will slam all equity investments, no matter WHAT they are earning! It will not matter if a gold stock is earning $10 a share and selling for $10, no one will hang around for the story, or the return, or the perceived ownership of gold. History shows that in such conditions people grab what they have and take it home, for a long time! The problem for
gold stock investors, this time, is that they are waiting for the very event that will impact the markets the most! That being the driving of gold prices higher in a gasping attempt to save the last of the dollar system! That act will crater the DOW from these levels. With Gold stocks, so
depressed, the higher gold prices will take at least six months to filter through into earnings in a meaningful way. If you were a big player in gold equities would you hold on for months with rumors of: foreign exchange controls, state of emergency, new banking regulations. a 50% drop in the dow, a currency crisis and gold flying through $3,000+?
Steve, watch the xau for a small rise, then a stall as things unfold. If it stalls for several weeks as matters worsen, you know what to do!

The next phase of problems for gold equities will come after gold crosses it's old high of $800! No doubt, foreign exchange controls will lock gold into the local market. The country of origin. Yes, the commodity every gold equity investor has followed supply and demand for will now
suddenly become classified as a "currency" and subject to all emergency measures. Remember, the governments will not coin it because it's a commodity, but during an emergency, it's much to valuable a currency asset to allow it to leave the country. Now, locked into a domestic market it's
sources will be subject to "windfall profits taxes" of sufficient amounts as to match the scale of the financial crisis. Steve, at this point there is nothing to watch because, if you still hold gold stocks, it's to late. Sorry for this very real discussion. Now you may consider your moves. FOA


Julia
(05/01/1999; 21:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 5466)
Aristotle
Thank you again for your kindness. I really appreciate your time and effort in explaining M1, M2, M3. Wish someone like you had explained it so well when I was struggling with economics in college.
Thanks.
Julia
Gandalf the White
(05/01/1999; 21:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 5467)
Proposed Inclusions in the "Hall of Record(s)"
I hereby nominate the FOA mentioned posting of Aragorn III and the posting that generated the thoughts, the posting of canamami. These two postings are #5170 and #5165 respectively. MK, has the Town Crier a librarian sister ?
<;-)
FOA
(05/01/1999; 21:17:32 MDT - Msg ID: 5468)
Time to go!
Thank you everyone. Aristotle, a fine M3 report. Yes, "I got me some" and will "get some more"!

Gold, Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow!
FOA
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 21:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 5469)
FOA
I would appreciate your comments on:

Awhile ago, I theorized that the insiders would be aware of a market debacle before the fact, and therefore would accumulate gold in advance of the cash. Therefore the first event would be an upsurge in the POG, before the occurance of a stock market panic.
Peter Asher
(05/01/1999; 21:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 5470)
Typo
Crash, not cash (Fruedian slip?)
Julia
(05/01/1999; 21:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 5471)
FOA
In one of your earlier posts you said," Watch the open interest on comex, over the next monthS, it should start a rise that will blow people
away! "
Could you enlighten me as to what "open interest on comex" is, what it shows and why it is important at this time and where I might find it (internet site) to watch?

Thank you, Julia
Gandalf the White
(05/01/1999; 21:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 5472)
FOA's answer to SteveH --- NOW a new question !
WOWERS -- That is eyeopening and straight to the heart of the future ! Please FOA, expound on this senerio: Some of the Goldhearts are Miners, and have their own claims and sources of raw gold. What do you see happening to these activities ? I can see the US Gov. requiring some if not ALL gold to be sold back to the Gov. and all new gold mined under the auspeces of the Treasury Department. What if every week I should take a hike and after a few days, return with a backpack heavier than when I departed. After a few more days, I would by magic alchemy produce a dore bar of an ounce or two. What would the possible sources for sale of the new item be for me ? Just wondering !
<;-)
Aristotle
(05/01/1999; 21:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 5473)
Thank you, everyone, for the kind words
It is nice to know that more people benefit than only the party to whom the post is directed, yet the effort is well worth it even if it is of marginal help in satisfying that one person's curiousity.

Stranger, don't give that Econ 101 quip of yours a second thought. It helps remind me not to take things in life so seriously, although I try to spare the Round Table from dealing with that side of me. Truth be told, back then I nearly fell outta my chair laughing, and I thought to myself, "Gads, what nonsense did I spew to earn such a friendly and well-intentioned rebuke?" So I scrolled back a day to refresh my memory, to gain context for both the original question and the response. I immediately saw the difficulty...I answered exactly the question being asked and didn't demonstrate all the steps between the premise and conclusion (a real rarity for me! though I swear I'm trying to shorten my posts, really I am! Honest!) Believe it or not, the answer does stand (among other possibilities) --otherwise I would have long ago offered the necessary modifications. I'm going to resist the temptation to get wordy by laying it all, taking a teaching cue from ANOTHER.

Thanks for being the one to come through on the current money supply figures. I expected either you or SteveH to be the one delivering the goods, and I can see my confidence was well placed.

Tomcat, thanks for the very nice thoughts. Taken to heart, I assure you.

FOA, thanks for all your explanations, information, and most recently for the pointer to Aragorn's post. As I grabbed a torch off the wall to venture back into the archives to read it, I was reminded that that scoundrel still owes me an answer...something in regard to 'the meaning of life' or 'how the world works.' Though surely as time passes, all the discussion at the Round Table fills that bill quite nicely. But still, where is that guy? ---Aristotle

Squire, bring my horse! There are great events stirring and we must gather in our Knights from far afield!
The Stranger
(05/01/1999; 22:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 5474)
Gandalf
Am I mistaken, or did Huey, Dewey and Louie catch the exact bottom?
The Stranger
(05/01/1999; 23:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 5475)
Mine Eyes Will See the Glory, Too
I believe that an awful lot of wealth will be realized in gold this year. But I wouldn't dismiss mining stocks as readily as you do, FOA. Two weeks ago Priceline.com had their IPO. When the very first shares traded that day in the secondary market, just that one brand new company, with no earnings what-so-ever, instantly had a market capitalization greater than Barrick, Homestake, Newmont, Placer Dome and Battle Mountain combined. The point is, just as the future you see will feature a severe shortage of bullion, the future I see will feature a severe shortage of mining shares.

I don't necessarily recommend them, but those miners which hover in or near bankruptcy, at today's gold prices, may offer the greatest gains of all. Their shares may come to life like desert flowers after a Spring shower.

OverHerd
(05/01/1999; 23:28:33 MDT - Msg ID: 5476)
A Question
Hi all, there is something I was considering and wanted to get some input on. Could the EURO be rising verses other currencies except the USD but not show up in the USD/EURO exchange rate, a kind of market inefficiency? What I'm suggesting is that the EURO is rising verses say the YEN for example, and other world currencies, and is displacing the USD everywhere except in the US. I'm curious if this is possible? I'm also wondering, since the EURO is being used for electronic transactions, what is the price of gold or oil and other commodities in EUROs.
JA
(05/01/1999; 23:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 5477)
Gandalf the White and Aragorn III


Been out for a while, now days when one leaves this site for a day or so it takes a while to catch up. Especially on week ends.

Gandalf


My humble apologies, bad choice of words on my part, I need to be more sensitive to my friends from middle earth. Yes, I realize the Hobbit and Trilogy is more real than much of what is about us in today's world. Many that frequent this site are on a heroic quest of their own, while gold and treasures are much discussed, the deeper underlying quest seem to be for truth.
OverHerd
(05/01/1999; 23:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 5478)
Hello Hiker
Arizona Hiker,
I hope you don't go I find what your saying interesting and would like to hear from you more often. I tried trading options but didn't have much success (gold, Eurodollars), a bad plan I guess, but I'm still interested and practicing my strategies.
JA
(05/01/1999; 23:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 5479)
FOA
Thanks for the response, I suspect we see the world much the same, just use different terminology to describe it. I appreciate the perspective your posts provide.
jinx44
(05/02/1999; 00:26:43 MDT - Msg ID: 5480)
Two thoughts
If the big mining houses are sold forward an average of 1 or 2 years, then I can only take that to mean available stocks from mining will be only a fraction the the yearly global production. Yes? That also means world demand will be bidding for existing hoards that will hard to dislodge from people like us and actual yearly mine output of maybe 800 tonnes for the next several years instead of 2700 tonnes? It's going to be a fast ride on this train.

And to G the W--There is gold in the mountains behind my house and I would love to pack in and work a claim. I believe FOA's prognosis on the USG laying their heavy hands on ALL manner of gold trading. It would probably be a federal felony to possess, sell, or offer for sale gold in any raw or semi-refined state without the right permit and tax stamp. Remember, we the people do not own the land. It belongs to the government. They will remind us of this when gold breaks out and heads north.
SteveH
(05/02/1999; 03:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 5481)
Jule and Stranger
www.the-privateer.com Julia,

The above link has open interest published every Saturday early. He, the Captain, is in Australia and updates his site on his Saturday afternoon, our early Saturday or late Friday night. Here are his last figures on open interest.


http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Another good site for info on gold is www.goldminingoutlook.com. Here you can learn about COT's (committment of traders) and such.

Stranger,

FOA was quite explicity wasn't he. The posts from Another and FOA have been increasingly more direct of late. This seems to be matching up with an offsetting action in the gold markets too, which adds further credibility to their words. In a big way I hope they are wrong as who in their right mind would ever want gold to go up under the circumstances they present. Rather, I am in Bill Murphy's camp that wants people to stop manipulating it so we may enjoy the benefits of a rising gold price free of manipulation. Unfortunately, life isn't that simple and if what they say is true then I presume his message is clear. There are obviously many possible outcomes of their projections. From a simpleton's mind, it is all like a big chess game. FOA appears to have thought his moves out far in advance, perhaps to master level skill. But the game is still on, the players are under the timer and it is white's (the good guys) turn.

The outcome of the game doesn't mean there will be or has to be one winner. Hopefully all will win. Certainly, fractal theory shows that a drop of water on the hand will move in a different direction every time. So too this golden chess game has many possible outcomes. But as in any game, a good offense is sometimes the best action. For the offense to make the best moves, however, they must understand the rules of the game. And that is where I am having the most trouble with all of this. The game appears rigged, not all the players know they are in it. If they know they are in it, I am not confident that they know all other players and all of the rules. Decisions made on incomplete information begets incomplete solutions.

Obviously these events take place in corners of a round earth that ellude only but a few. But, are we watchers of the great game or or we too players? We are players and our collective moves will ultimately determine the outcome. So, here is a gulp and a puff to us that we may all make the best decisions in this golden game, decisions that will protect our loved ones, our friends, our countries, and our world.

Steve




Usul
(05/02/1999; 06:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 5482)
Insider accumulation
Peter Asher wrote 5/1/99; 21:21:30MDT - Msg ID:5469 that insiders would be aware of a market debacle before the fact, and therefore would accumulate gold in advance...

It is not the upsurge in the POG that signals this, but the POG that stays the same!

Private sources are indeed accumulating gold coin, as can be seen in the sales figures of the Gold Eagle at the US mint. But perhaps their eyes see only Y2K?

FOA says that gold will be sold, but no buyers listed. Many times we have heard that CBs have sold gold. Many times we have been told that Switzerland will sell gold and set free its currency. Many times we have been told that the IMF should sell its gold. Rumours circulate of brokers with orders to sell. Strange indeed would be a market
that has only sellers... yet the POG has not fallen below
approximately $280 in a year. For every seller, there is a buyer (CBs on both sides!). In my view, the insiders are there, buying with
both hands everything that the sellers have to throw at
them. This is a tug-of-war and the centre of the rope, for now, remains between the lines. Insiders have been alert
to what is coming for some time. It is not a matter of
if, but only of when.
SteveH
(05/02/1999; 08:12:31 MDT - Msg ID: 5483)
One possible out come of the golden game of chess
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/ascani050399.htmlHere is an outcome of the game that shows the variety of solutions possible.
T. Remital
(05/02/1999; 08:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 5484)
I AM AWAKE AND READY TO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVV
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/GoldenBull.jpgCHARGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Stranger
(05/02/1999; 08:24:18 MDT - Msg ID: 5485)
Overherd
Against a market basket of 19 major currencies the dollar is up about 5% since January 1, opening day for the Euro. Meanwhile, the euro is down about 10% against the dollar, leading one to believe that the dollar/euro move has been about half euro weakness, half dollar strength.

With all due respect to Arizona Hiker, I would advise you to stay away from options. The first ten years standardized options were traded, I was a young broker who specialized in them. What a mistake that was. You simply must hit the timing right on the nose, or you lose. I am afraid the cynical joke that brokers whisper to one another, that no matter how much money options-traders start with, they all wind up with the same amount - zero, is true.

I was able to place Arizona Hiker's age and profession so quickly (April 29, about 9p.m.) because of his arrogance. He was advertising his success when it was clear he hasn't achieved it yet. (If he had, by the way, I suspect he would still be employed in that most lucrative of all industries). In short, he is old enough to have knowledge, but he still has work to do on wisdom.

Perhaps, judging someone else in this manner makes ME sound arrogant. If so, I apologize. But, speaking from long experience, I would advise anyone to steer clear of options. If you do not have a lot of money to work with, I'll bet Michael can show you gold coins that sell for under $40. There are gold mining stocks that sell for under $2/share.

The road to fabulous wealth is Rte. 72, and it is open to everybody. EVERYBODY!
Christine
(05/02/1999; 09:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 5486)
Perspective
During last goldbull market: POG had been manipulated and legally held down for as long as possible prior to the bullmarket starting. During the 70's bullmarket, POG went from $35 to $800, then settled into a new POG equilibrium of $300-$350, for an increase of 1000%. This time, IMHO, POG has been held down via manipulation for roughly as long as possible, so it would be within historical norms for POG to climb to higher than $3000, but to establish a new equilibrium of $3000(ie an increase of 1000%). Also, during the 70's, the secular bear stock market ultimately dropped 50% before it was over. The U.S. dollar is very strong and can withstand some weakening--balance of payments deficit can't continue. My point is, all the scenarios we have discussed here so far are within historical ranges.
Jade
(05/02/1999; 10:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 5487)
Christine
Perspective�It's rather interesting how Gold added a zero to $35 USD an ounce and became $350 USD. Your observation is one of the main foundations for my buying more of this precious currency every month. It has been exactly my thoughts that this currency will add another zero again and thus be $3500. Its simplicity is rather terrifying, as I really can't imagine this country with $3500 USD Gold. The turmoil we will go through to arrive on the other side of this event will be beyond the imaginations of most individuals including myself.
Tomcat
(05/02/1999; 11:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 5488)
I couldn't do a simple projection :(

Christine and Jade have just proposed the POG in the $3000 dollar range in reasonalble.

So, thought I, being somewhat new in this arena, it is time for me to work a few basic ratios to see if $3000 is a reasonable figure. Hmm... should I divide M3 by 8000 tons of gold?

Or should should I divide our forien held dollars by...uh oh, says I, I don't know what I'm doing. I am lost. Here I am reading and discussing complex economic models and I can't can't even prove my point on the back of an envelope.

So , now that I have exposed my ignorance, I reach to those wiser than me to relieve my embarassment. How, in God's name do you project the value of our precious metal?
FOA
(05/02/1999; 11:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 5489)
OIL
http://www.nandotimes.com/noframes/story/0,2107,44496-71801-518849-0,00.htmlCanamami,
Earlier, you had stared many items that would conflict with the outcome that Another and myself see ahead. One of them was this:

canamami (4/25/99; 22:10:30MDT - Msg ID:5165)

"However, and first, many of the Middle-Eastern countries are dependent on the US for military protection. No country or alliance in the world can match the US with respect to military technology. Only the US maintains a military of the size and mobility to assist those Middle-Eastern countries if they are threatened. The bottom line: only the US can protect these traditional regimes (The US being the successor to Britain and its Empire in this as in many other
roles)."

Please note that times and circunstances change quickly in the fluid world of politicts. Even today, Arabia takes a further move. First oil, now defence! Next, finance! This world is changing and we are part of it. Read below or see above link:


"Saudi defense minister makes 1st visit to Iran in 20 years

Copyright � 1999 Nando Media
Copyright � 1999 Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (May 2, 1999 10:04 a.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com) -
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan arrived Saturday in Iran on a groundbreaking visit that could bring the two Gulf heavyweights closer to a defense agreement.

Sultan, who arrived in Tehran late Saturday, is making the first visit to Iran by a Saudi defense minister since the country's 1979 Islamic revolution.

Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said Sultan's visit was "a turning point in relations" between the two countries and called for a military pact with Saudi Arabia to defend the Gulf, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The defense ministers will discuss "the general outline of a security plan for the region," said Iran's ambassador to Riyadh, Mohammad Reza Nouri Shahroudi.

A Saudi diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a possibility the two sides would draw up a defense agreement. "

(more)

Christine
(05/02/1999; 11:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 5490)
@Tomcat andPOG--Scarier projections
Tomcat--I have seen others try to make the analysis as you suggest-it is a good concept. Part of the debate then has to become whether or not you include treasury bonds in the formula, as much of $US are held as treasuries. Scary.

In my previous post, I tried to remain calm and make comparisons from another era--70's--that we survived, although not without a war. However, there are distinct differences this time. The main difference is that by every measure, the stock market is vastly more overvalued now than it was in the 70's at the top (top actually late 60's). To me this current stock market represents a huge amount of monetary inflation, much greater than that which led to the stagflation of the 70's. So if I were honest, I would have to admit I think my POG projection of $3500 is considerably too low, and would have to be increased by at least 50% or more to reflect recent inflation. This is scary to think about.
USAGOLD
(05/02/1999; 11:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 5491)
FORUM BUSINESS....Repeat Post from Yesterday plus Add on at bottom
Canamami and FOA: Two brilliant posts for the newly inaugurated USAGOLD Hall of Record

Recorded by number here for archival purposes this first day of May, 1999 Nos. 5431 and 5439

Thank you for sharing your insights, Canamami and FOA.

******************

ALL:

This Hall of Record will be established as a permanent file to be accessed through the USAGOLD Home Page. The page will be
established once the first twenty posts are selected. These are the first two.

In order for this Hall of Record to become a Permanent Institution established by this Table Round, we will require ten
supporting posts seconding the motion.

Thank you, my fellow knights and ladies, let the Hall of Record become the keeping place of our most memorable and important
posts -- a place of honor in which entrance should not be taken lightly.

Member recommendations will be considered by either e-mail or posting to the FORUM.
****************

5/2/99 Add on:

So far if I'm counting right, we've got three seconds. Need seven more.

Seconds:

Gandalf the White
Peter Asher
Julia

Any more?

I like the idea of the regular posters picking their favorite posts and entering it into the Hall of Record themselves. I think though we might have to have at least one other member of the Table, possibly two, speak in that post's behalf as a matter of establishing it as rising to the level of Hall of Record standards. These honoraria will be the stuff against which all other posts will be judged in the future. They must be generally considered worthy.

We will need a Keeper of the Hall of Record. This would entail keeping a file and then sending it by e-mail to me on completion so that I can create the file, links etc. The Keeper of the Hall would be so honored by name at the top of the page.

Any volunteers?
FOA
(05/02/1999; 12:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 5492)
In poor form.
All:
Sorry for the poor spelling in my #5489 as I am in a rush and wanted to send this quickly. Will return much later. FOA
Chicken man
(05/02/1999; 12:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 5493)
May I address the forum...?
Being this is only my second post (another lurker stepping foward) I am honored to speak to such a noble gathering.....

As to the discusion of $ of gold...may I might add....the US gov(the Fed? ) cannot peg the price of gold below their prior obligation of debt....if the people of the US (taxpayers) owe the world $5.6 trillion that figures out to be $22,000 a person.....that is each taxpayers portion of the IOU's that the politians have saddled their voters with.....now the Treasury/fed only owns approx. 260 Mil. oz. of gold...that would be only ONE oz. for each citizen.....hence an oz of gold would have to be "worth" $22,0000 an oz....no more dollar value based on "full faith and credit.....no more faith in the "store of value" of the US dollar and need less to say the credit part will be costly(30 - 40% interest rate for starters)....one needs to watch the rest of the countries in the world to get a feeling as to the fate of their curriencies once they are "attacked"....those who held gold in Indonesia fared quite well in preserving their buying power as their Rupiah was dumped for being "unsound and not a store of value".......(read- too much printed)
I would go so far as to peg the future value of gold to $30,000 an oz.....22.5K plus 7.5K future indebtiness before the paper boy's admit the battle against gold is hopeless....to say 30k is out of the question....one must observe that to "control" inflation the people who print the fiat money also have the "power" to strike zeros from the paper that they printed.....read Yugo gov struck a total of NINE zero's from their curriency.....that would be a real "wealth" adjustment!!
So...as they say...got gold..?
cannot "sell"
TownCrier
(05/02/1999; 13:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 5494)
Keeper of the Hall of Record
USAGOLD, it might be appropriate for the reporter of 'news you can use' to also keep track of the Hall of Record. Unless another dearly wants this position, I stand ready to serve as needed.

In that regard, I also voice my support for the inclusion of the two posts you've referenced.
TownCrier
(05/02/1999; 13:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 5495)
Philipine interest rates near bottom, bankers edgy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990502/p.htmlSee how monetary policy is used (with varying degrees of success) to stimulate economic activity.
TownCrier
(05/02/1999; 13:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 5496)
US says sceptical on hedge funds role in Asia woes
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990501/k.htmlDespite some limited US balking, efforts have begun to reign in hedge fund activity.
TownCrier
(05/02/1999; 13:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 5497)
Task force recommedations to Congress on hedge funds
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990429/hedge_fund_6.htmlFallout from the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management that nearly caused a financial meltdown.
TownCrier
(05/02/1999; 14:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 5498)
More regulations not needed, hedge funds say
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990429/bov.htmlHedge funds try to protect their unique turf, dismissing any need for controls.
OverHerd
(05/02/1999; 15:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 5499)
Know your short seller
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/the_economy/newsid_331000/331877.stmHi all, I was reading the BBC news article called "The 1.5 Trillion Gamble" and my thought on this is that it is another version of KYC. In the summery of the recommendations it's stated "closer regulation of offshore financial centers." This has been a long-standing goal of the government that compliments the exit tax. The recommendation of "better risk management by banks, with more bank funds put aside to cover any risky investments" I see as if you don't play by our rules we will make it economically hard on you. The other two seem to go together and also tie in to what FOA has said about the mining companies not being a good investment. It is stated "disclosure by financial institutions of any material exposure to hedge funds" and "Quarterly reports for larger hedge funds, publishing "frequent and meaningful information" this would allow one to use the banks to identify the hedge funds that would in turn identify the mines that have sold forward. If the gold in the ground is to be "over-taxed" or confiscated then you would need to know who exactly owns this gold as not to step on the toes of the wrong people. This would also enable you to make sure all the shorts that are "in" on the deal are out before the fun starts. It all sounds like the usual create a crisis, solve a crisis, and get more control routine.
PS. Thanks Stranger I appreciate the advice and will heed it!
canamami
(05/02/1999; 15:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 5500)
FOA - Reply to Post# 5489
FOA - RE Post# 5489

FOA, the visit of the Saudi minister to Iran is of some note, but I suspect you're reading far too much into it. There is very little in common between the two countries - that's why there have been few contacts in the past twenty years. Saudi Arabia has a traditionalist, oligarchic government which fears the more radical, democratic government of Iran. In short, the Saudi ruling class fears that the Iranian regime will help engineer its downfall. Although both are theologically conservative Islamic regimes, the Saudis are Sunni, while the Iranians are mainly Shiite, and there is sometimes real hostility between the two. Contrary to what we in the West generally believe, there is substantially more individual freedom and democracy in Iran than in Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States (though Iran is authoritarian by Western standards), and reformers in those countries can look to Iran as a pattern state for reform within Islam, notwithstanding the other substantial differences between the counties. There are of course differences of nationality: Iran is Persian/multi-ethnic, while Saudi Arabia is Arab/guest worker. These differences of nationality also count for a lot - note that prior to the Gulf War some Arab countries, while noting that Iraq was wrong to invade Kuwait, applauded Iraq and stated it was entitled to compensation for "taking it on the chin" so to speak, for the Arab world. To an extent, this was an expression of a latent pan-Arab nationalism.

Second, against what threat would this alliance be focused? If it's against Iraq (the most likely candidate), the US still has a major role to play. I don't believe that the Saudis or the Iranians together would have sufficient naval or air power to prevent a second invasion of Kuwait. The alliance could be focused against the West (if the oil taps are shut off), but I don't think the West (read the US) would invade for this reason because public opinion would not allow it. Americans will not support a major military adventure unless there is a major moral issue involves - communism, foreign invasion, ethnic cleansing. It has been written that Americans generally fight the"devil", not for their national interests. Americans and the rest of the West and G-7 would pay $60 a barrel or more, but they won't fight for oil. (The US does have a right of access to Canadian energy supplies in an emergency, and there are other short-term reserves). The danger for the traditional Arab oil producers is that the US won't protect them from a third party aggressor or internal revolt if the US is gratuitously harmed economically by a repeat of the 1970's.

If oil goes up even dramatically (and I suspect it probably will), all that will happen is a short to medium term economic slump (perhaps a major one), but then alternative sources of oil and other energy will come on stream. The boom of the eighties and nineties followed stagflation of the seventies and early eighties. So, we will go through another period of stagflation. Oil will go up, gold will go up, inflation will go up, the $US will go down (much overdue), stocks will go down, etc., and then it will end and the cycle will recommence, provided we don't blow ourselves up or poison ourselves to death.

FOA, I agree with much of what you say, and I thank you because your writings have provided me with insights I would not otherwise have acquired. I agree that the $US will decline, gold will increase, and rising oil will be a significant catalyst. Gold will serve a more explicitly significant role, I am sure. However, the US and the rest of the West is tolerably well-run, and the various national currencies (especially the $US) will not become worthless or disestablished. These shocks will make us poorer, but not undermine our basic way of life. Gold will probably end up explicitly serving a major role, but the other aspects of our financial system will not be disestablished. I'm still expecting my gold shares to make me a lot of $Cdn. , and I'm hoping to enjoy those $Cdn. (some of which will be converted to $US, physical gold and other currencies as a hedge against Quebec separatism) well into the future.

Thank you, and this time the posting moratorium is firm!

P.S. - FOA, I must express some displeasure with your criticism of the mutual fund strategist whom I quoted in post# 5431 (a man whom I must emphasize I don't know and have never met). Unless you have some other knowledge of his investment philosophy, I believe any criticism or purported knowledge based on a three paragraph excerpt from one article was quite unjustified. It is not my intention to be difficult or unduly critical, but this is a point which I felt ought to be made. Again, I thank you for your contribution to my own and others' understanding of issues related to gold.
canamami
(05/02/1999; 15:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 5501)
Brief Clarification
I meant to state, at one point in my reply to FOA's post# 5489, that other Arab countries applauded Iraq for fighting the war against Iran. This reflected pan-Arab nationalism vis-a-vis Persian Iran, and also reflected tension between Sunni and Shiite Islam.

The posting moratorium is back on, and this time absolute (at least for 10 days)!
USAGOLD
(05/02/1999; 15:57:22 MDT - Msg ID: 5502)
Usul...
I note that you catalogue the arcane and unusual as a hobby. I have seen the most recent interpretations of Nostradamus' quatrains having to do with the third world war starting in the Balkans in July99. (Perhaps you could supply us with that quatrain?) Are there corresponding texts that you know of making a similar prediction from other sources? Those who comment that it appears we are on some pre-determined course with respect to the Balkans, point to the intractability of the U.S. and British governments (today's events being no exception) as a warning of terrible things to come. What say you, my friend from across the water?
USAGOLD
(05/02/1999; 15:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 5503)
Townie...
How good of you to volunteer. It is fitting that the keeper of the news should also keep the Hall of Record. Thank you, sir.
Christine
(05/02/1999; 16:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 5504)
OverHerd--Interesting analysis
One of my suspicions I voiced awhile back is that getting control of electronic offshore banking is one of the issues this is all about. I know very ordinary, honest people who already have offshore bank accounts thanks to the internet. Our government and elite must just love ordinary citizens having offshore bank accounts.
FOA
(05/02/1999; 18:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 5505)
Reply
canamami (5/2/99; 15:44:49MDT - Msg ID:5500

Canamami,
I went back and read both your post and my reply / analysis to it. You are right and I see your point. My intent was to show the "mind style" used by many manager / strategist for the evaluation of gold market investments. In doing so I walked on your major purpose for offering the piece in the first place. I made my point, but took your work out of context to do so. A very sad mistake, for me, my friend as I lost much more than I gained. My apologies.

The fact that he made this statement was indeed a confirmation of the "changing analysis" of the gold market:
"Since gold has been a reliable inflation indicator for at least four millennia, weakening its price at a time of soaring oil prices is politically smart. It will help convince economists and central bankers that disinflation or even deflation is still at work, despite rapid money supply growth and some of the lowest interest rates the world has seen."

Your story by Somerset Maugham brings out many of the feelings honest, hardworking people have when hearing of the "easy riches" they have missed. It seems, these days, a conservative person exists to service the needs of those who gamble and live on the edge! But life is dynamic and trends always change. Perhaps the justice, so due for your "Good Guy" will return as the exciting history of gold is played again in a modern world. Thank You FOA

P.S. I would offer a further analysis to your #5500, but courtesy will require permission.



Tomcat
(05/02/1999; 19:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 5506)
Christine and the projected POG

Christine, I am interested the stock market contribution to the inflation. It certainly is a major factor. What circumstances do you see that would force the valuation of the gold (or the devalulation of the dollar) into the numbers you project. Also, do you forsee the US creditors wanting dollars and keeping the value of the dollar high due to Y2k?
OverHerd
(05/02/1999; 19:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 5507)
Ramblings
Hi all and Stranger, I saw your post as I was about to post and just added that little blurb. I guess my experience in options is typical of the majority, although there are some people that can make money at it, it appears I'm not one of them. I do own some natural resource stocks: in oil Adams resources and energy (AE), and Hurricane hydrocarbons (HHLAF); in gold Azco mining (AZC) and Northgate exploration (NGX); in oranges Orange Co (OJ). At least I don't see the government going after the oranges in the groves (HA HA) just a little joke no disrespect intended. I have talked to Mike and he's been very helpful. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I'm glad I had some time to join the discussion, mostly I only have time to read, and that is limited. I like to think that I try to stay well informed, which is why I am at this forum, and not glued to the boob tube. I think there is great opportunity in the future but I must also be aware of what's going on now. I think technology is the wave of the future but I missed the start of this round and I will wait for an opportunity. If I can stay ahead or over the herd these opportunities will be available all the time. Right now it's the precious metals and oil that have the greatest profit potential at least in my view. The country (USA) and the world could be in for some changes especially for people who are not cognizant of what going on, but I think things can turn out all right.

ANOTHER and FOA I very much enjoy your posts, they are very informative and helpful in plotting a course for the future and I thank you for that. The information you share with the forum is very valuable and should be considered by all. I'm not sure if it is fate or destiny that I meet up with you in cyber space, but I believe I am much better for it and only wish I could repay the debt of gratitude I owe you. Again thank you.
Tomcat
(05/02/1999; 19:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 5508)
Could we make a list of those factors that will contribute to bursting the bubble?

Thank you Chicken Man for your projection calculation. Now this ratio, calculated like this could have been done five or ten years ago. The projected POG would have come out perhaps one fifth of your projection due to a lower debt number but the projection would still yeild a wildly high value for gold. But the bubble did not burst then and we did not go on to a gold standard.

Given that, can anyone take a stab as to what circumstances exist today that did not exist five or ten years ago. Why will the bubble burst now as opposed to then. Back then the stock market was very high (so everyone thought), oil was on the rise, we had trouble with Sadam H., and so on. But no burst.

In addition, now we have: the Asian Crisis, Y2k, the group of overleveredged hedge funds, the reluctance of some CBs to support the dollar with gold sales, and the covering of the shorts on a rising POG. There are many more.

Perhaps we could make a list of Bubble Bursting factors. Many have been mentioned in this forum but I have not seen a list all in one place. Does anyone feel that such a list would be helpful to the forum? Would such a list act as a summary of many of the wonderful contributions by FOA, Another, The Stranger, ...? Once we had such a list, could we refer to it in our posts as sort of a reference point?
Christine
(05/02/1999; 20:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 5509)
Tomcat--I just hope it's not the worst case scenario
As you probably know, I feel or believe that many things are being manipulated and will continue to be. I listen to FOA's scenario and watch. The damage has already been done--eventually market forces will take over, and whatever inflation is in the system will be evident. I wish I knew answers to what you ask. Do you have any further ideas about it?
Christine
(05/02/1999; 20:11:41 MDT - Msg ID: 5510)
A date to remember--June, l999
There is a rumor that has been well discussed @ Gold-Eagle that the POG will start to rise in June, 1999. There is alot of story and info to the rumor. But briefly, the rumor reportedly originated from German Suarez, head of the central bank of Peru. He supposedly said this in l996. Many of us have speculated the rumor is related to the introduction of the euro, and could very well be true. Anyway, if POG started moving dramatically in June, this could sure start the proverbial golden ball rolling. There have been many odd coincidences since we first heard the rumor back in Feb, 1999. For one thing, only a short time after we heard it, Golden Sachs came out for with the new date for their IPO in May. Maybe they heard the same rumor?
canamami
(05/02/1999; 21:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 5511)
FOA - Reply to Post# 5505
FOA, there is no need to apologize. I fear I may have misunderstood and miscategorized your work and that of Another to a substantially greater degree than you misunderstood mine. I was just surprised that you attacked Donald Coxe's May 1, 1999 Globe and Mail article when the effect of the article was to make it difficult to label as "cranks" those who believe in gold price manipulation, and when the article appeared to constitute mainstream support for at least a portion of what you and others have been arguing in this Forum. (Coxe has been one of the few mainstream commentators I have read who continued to view gold as a financial asset; the theory on gold price manipulation is repeated in a conference call on the Jones Heward website).

Also, I would be honoured and overjoyed to have you comment on my posts 5500 and 5501, as you obviously have cognizance of that part of the world. I believe I may have overstated some points in my posts. Obviously, there is some significance to a possible rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, given the past "coolness" in relations. It may be partly due to the new Iranian President's desire to moderate Iran's international activities and image. Further, I ought to have pointed out that although there is greater individual freedom and democracy in Iran than Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has been a much more responsible international actor and friend of the West, by not supporting terrorism and subversion in the rest of the world, unlike Iran (though Iran may now be moderating its foreign behaviour).

I suspect the main difference between our views (as I perceive them) is that I believe the $US will fall, gold and oil will increase, perhaps dramatically and to an extent I don't anticipate, but I don't foresee the degree of cataclysm it appears to me that you and Another foresee. I believe that the major currencies of the West will continue to exist and to be serious units of exchange and stores of value. In short, the major currencies will not be demonetized, IMHO.

Again, thank you for your contributions. I must now genuinely forebear from future posts for a time, lest I become unemployed for not doing my work.
Gandalf the White
(05/02/1999; 22:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 5512)
SLOOOOOW afterhours trading on GC9M tonight
BUT the price is going in the correct direction-- 288.2 last.
<;-)
Tomcat
(05/02/1999; 22:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 5513)
Christine

Christine. You have asked me for my views. All I can offer are opinions.

I used to to read about conspiracies and never was convinced because the books I read only offered circumstantial evidence. I remember one book about the Rockefellers, "None Dare Call it Conspiracy", which alluded to but didn't nail down enough facts. I got tired of hearing about the CFR but never getting a factual information.

Recently, however, I am beginning to see evidence that is not so circumstantial. One factor is that the press seems to be uniformly controlled on many issues. Just this week GATA found that not one piece of the media establishment would run its news release. The JFK cover up took a lot of coordinated yes-men doing their job. The CIA's involvement in banking and drug running has be thorougly documented in Rodney Stich's "Defrauding America". Mr. Stich also gives names, places, dates and photocopies of collusion in the Justice Department that was orchestrated from the top. L. Horowitz presents very strong evidence (in 600 pages in the book Emerging Viruses) that AIDS was manmade and introduced to the US and Africa intentionally by a specific and named group.

Christine, I am not even a conspiracy buff but the evidence seems unavoidable. I do not believe that one mastermind group is in charge of everything. I seems that their are many powerful and private groups who compete for big peices of the pie.

The fact that the POG is being controlled and that many are taking this chance to buy all that they can is a bit circumstantial but it sure makes me wonder.

So, Christine, I am changing, slowly but surely in the direction that seems parallel with your views. But, just because their is collusion doesn't mean there is on top level mastermind group and a NWO starting next year.

I come from an Eastern European heritage where my grandmother saw all eight of her brothers forcfully conscripted into the Russian Army and not one survived. My father was an imigrant who saw his share of violence. I personally come from the streets and escaped by getting an education.

So, skeptical I am, Christine. And, prepared I am as well, in case my life must cross paths with the evil that I know exists.

But Christine, I am also biased. I come to this forum to broaden my views and shed my fixed ideas. I must admit, that the internet and forums like this are my salvation from isolation. I was born streetsmart enough to be a survivor but not wise or sophisticated enough to develop a broad base of intellectual and practical financial commrades. The real gold lies right here on this forum. I hope my inexperience and ignorance does not waste others time.

I enjoy your posts because they have caused me to think in ways that I am not accustomed. So my Lady, please keep communicating. :)



Peter Asher
(05/02/1999; 23:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 5514)
10% of a days trading volume
http://news.excite.com/news/r/990503/00/business-brokers-goldmansachsMight suck some money out of the other stuff ???
Peter Asher
(05/02/1999; 23:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 5515)
Tomcat
Your statement: that one mastermind group is in charge of everything. It seems that there are many powerful and
private groups who compete for big pieces of the pie. >

That really does look like the most logical and believable scenerio.

Buena Fe
Usul (5/2/99; 6:36:48MDT - Msg ID:5482)
Bang-on my friend your could not have said it better!!!

Follow the money (secret buyers of gold), look through the smoke screen of CB/IMF sales and we will find the masters of this financial illusion called "Wall Street-no inflation-low interest rate-easy money paradise".

They know, like the engineer/architect of the Titanic, that the ship has hit the proverbial ICEBERG and there is no other way but to man&woman the life boats (ie gold).

You don't have to be wise to get a wise man's results. Just do as a the wise man does and it will all work out!

Keep Well All!
Aristotle
Chicken man and Tomcat--On the valuation of Gold
Essentially the question you pose is how should we value Gold given our current monetary situation...should the focus be on current money supply or national debt, or a combination, or something else entirely. Wow, a question for the ages! I won't pretend to have a solid answer for this, but maybe I can pose some additional thoughts that might help stimulate some additional discussion that might lead to a resolution that is to our satisfaction. Let me stress that this is not intended to be a comprehensive treatment of the pertinent factors, but merely a general framework from which our many industrious thinkers may expand, or spot the fallacy and provide the necessary course-correction.

To begin, let us admit that the revaluation of Gold would be done to repair the ills brought about by the global use of competing fiat currencies that have no means with which to prove their value other than by demonstration of the latest contract or transaction they were used to settle. Otherwise, without defining a purpose, anything goes. As things stand, each nation-state has a money supply in circulation or on deposit, and has a net national debt or surplus on the ledgers.

Following the demise of the international Gold-standard in 1971 (prior to which time the dollar was defined as having the value of 35 per troy ounce, and other currencies were pegged at some defined exchange rate vs. the dollar in accordance with the Bretton Woods agreement as facilitated through the IMF), we must further admit that these many currencies have experienced the spectrum of pegs through free float against each other, none immune to some form of manipulation. The form of manipulation also ran the spectrum to serve the desired objective of the moment; from 'beggar thy neighbor' devaluations for facilitating exports, to the opposite attempts at maintaining purchasing integrity through exchange rate strength. As each nation manipulated in what they felt to be their best interest, there was no one nation with a sole claim on the ownership and fate of Gold, yet as an independent currency while all the world was floating, Gold as 'priced' in other currencies experienced a de facto manipulation. And as has already been demonstrated by those of you more capable than I, the start of the 1980's and Gold at $850 brought about more direct and aggressive manipulation of Gold as a currency through pricing on the futures markets, as with key commodities such as oil. As a result, the price of Gold currently bears no correlation to other real things, and further, gives no insight into the true value (or weakness) of the dollar that 'prices' it. It will be helpful for what follows to recognize that a dollar is valued at what the latest seller determines it to be worth...a candy bar, a dozen eggs, a gallon of gas. This is similar to the manner in which common stocks, such as IBM or tulips.com, receive their valuation by the latest terms of exchange.

With that background in place, let's tackle the task at hand, namely, estimating the appropriate valuation for Gold. I suggest that this would be brought about in one of two possible ways: through open market pricing sans manipulation, or else through official proclamation--"lightning in the night," to borrow words from a greater mind than mine.

Open market pricing is the easiest to discuss, as there is nothing to discuss. Under our premise that Gold is to become the numeraire with the national currency acting as the transactional proxy in future commerce, the price of Gold would move to reflect mankind's confidence (or lack thereof) in the entities that are issuing the proxy currencies and 'keeping the books' (sorta like the early years of banking and blacksmiths.) While this method might immediately suggest a strong tie to the outstanding money supply as a pricing influence, the 'confidence factor' would surely address some level of the national debt or surplus.

Now for the tough one: an official proclamation of valuation coming as suddenly and unexpectedly as are all monetary policy decisions when brought forth for the world's attention. Rather than leaving the revaluation to the uncertainties and perfection(!) of the open market, the government would utilize this official revaluation as an opportunity to achieve specific objectives in the national interest. Clearly, to assist our estimation, we must identify the objectives that may be served in addition to any socio-political pressures that may be brought to bear.

To be sure, clearing the books of any national debt would be an objective, and therefore an opportunity not to be missed. Which debt would be chosen? The sum of all outstanding Government Bond liabilities, or only those in foreign hands, or would an adjustment be made for assets such as the total value of other nations' bonds and for outstanding loans to other countries? If this last option were chosen, and the nation's Gold were divided into the net national debt, the slate would be wiped clean of all outstanding government liabilities using all of its Gold assets in an act that would yield the lowest possible price of Gold as needed to balance the books. "So what of the outstanding money supply?" you ask? Now I already know that you're not going to like hearing this, but here goes... Technically, that which is left after the government settles its net debt would not need Gold backing because it is a self-extinguishing, temporary money supply that came into being as bank loans. As the people endeavor to pay back these same dollars they borrowed from their Main Street banks, the resulting money annihilation through ledger squaring, coupled with the need to pay the loan interest soon reveals a vanishing currency deflation of epic proportions. This could be tempered as private citizens with Gold may choose to exchange it for new issue of dollars from the government at this new valuation, which would then become part of a permanent money supply. It should be readily apparent that the Government could also choose to settle its liabilites with only a fraction of its Gold assets, resulting in a much higher price for gold than in the above example. This would give them real money reserves with which to conduct future operations until such time as they manage to balance annual spending with tax revenues. (Conceivably, they could pay off the debt with one ounce, but the price of Gold would then be $5.6 trillion / ounce which would completely wipe out the purchasing power of the dollar at home and abroad.)

In the end, even with a governmentally established revaluation, the prices charged for goods and services would be established on the open market as they are now, and would be a function of the supply of that particular nation's gold-proxy transactional currency. A little gold goes a long way, my friends!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
The Invisible Hand
A date to remember--June, 1999
A date to remember--June, 1999

Christine,

You are writing in message 5510 that the June gold rumor is being discussed in Gold-Eagle.

What's the address of Gold-Eagle?

The IVH

SteveH
Slow night on gold yes.
$287.80. June gold that is.

POG is manipulated by SYSOPs of gold bullion discussion groups so that people have subject matter and a cause of discussion. Were gold to rally to our dreams posters would be too busy spending their money to discuss underdog issues of manipulation and collusion. That simple. Got discussion.
Junior
Gold Eagle Site Address
http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html
Jon
holiday in UK
Steve H: believe today is a bank holiday observed in London, and accounts for lack of quotes.
TownCrier
U.S. Treasuries open lower, new lows possible
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/ky.htmlComing to terms with the damage done Friday.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Canadian Mint Raises Gold Coin Premiums
MARKET UPDATE (5/3/99): Gold backed off slightly this morning as worldwide
markets waited for New York to set the tone for today's trading. With the hullabaloo of
International Monetary Fund and Swiss sales behind us, the gold market is now
concentrating on rising oil prices and their effect on the overall inflationary picture
worldwide. The market is also focusing on the enormous short position built into this
market -- a position that will have to be covered at some point. There is also the problem of
enormous monetary growth for the dollar and growing concern that the U.S. economy is
overheating, the large increase in gross domestic product announced Friday being the latest
indicator. These are just a few of the more immediate concerns as we kick off the week.

One of the more interesting developments over the weekend was the announcement by the
Royal Canadian Mint that it was raising premiums on its gold and silver coinage. The Royal
Canadian Mint in an attempt to deal with the stagnant gold price in terms of covering their
production costs and making a profit announced that it would start pricing its coins at spot
+$10 to market-makers, an increase of about $1.50 per one ounce coin. The United States
Eagle coinage has already experienced price rises at the wholesale level owing to the
burgeoning demand related to year 2000 investor preparations. The Canadian situation
points to production costs rising while gold itself has not responded to inflationary
pressures. Many believe the gold price is being manipulated down by various financial
firms in Europe and the United States. The premium rise is a natural market reaction to the
artificially maintained price. The U.S. Mint has dealt with the same problem by rationing
gold coins to its market-makers -- a strategy which has driven up premiums as well,
although in the case of U.S. coins, it is the market, not the mint, which has driven up
premiums.

Economists have warned that if the gold price is held down artificially in a strong demand
environment, the available supply at some point is absorbed into the market and new
demand goes unmet. Eventually the gold supply without the natural stimulus of rising price
and its corollary rising availability will experience shortages. The Canadian Mint's response
is another way of achieving the same end. If the spot price is not going to allocate supply
and demand properly then the premiums will. Premiums on the smaller one quarter and
one-tenth ounce gold coins, popular with Y2K investors, are likely to go even higher on a
percentage basis.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
TownCrier
WTO close to paralysis
TownCrier
Golden day for Goldman's staff
CoBra(too)
@ Town Crier - Thank you for ringing the bell at the top....
Thank you for bringing it up. Historical precedence in over-heated, -valued, -exuberant... equity markets rang the bell in 1928. History doesn't repeat itself?, but this just might come too close for comfort.
Let's watch RR's resignation cashing in the (in trust, I trust) chips together-imminently?
TownCrier
U.S. manufacturing grows third straight month-NAPM
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/sy.htmlFor you NAPM watchers: Growth...NAPM over 50.
TownCrier
Independent Petroleum Association of America
PRESS RELEASE--April 30

GAS OUT Protesters Should Learn from History, Economics, Independent Oil Producers Say

"If the GAS OUT protestors are truly concerned about gasoline prices at the pump, they need to focus on the ongoing plight of America's independent oil and gas producers -- small business men and women who are being put out of work at record levels," according to Gil Thurm, president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA).

For the past sixteen months, a worldwide glut of oil has caused prices to fall to historically low levels -- $10 - $12 per barrel on the national market, half that in some regions. "The price of gasoline, on an inflation- adjusted basis, was lower than it had ever been before in the entire history of gasoline," says Thurm.

Of equal importance is the fact that low international oil prices have wreaked havoc in the domestic producing industry and severely handicapped producers in their efforts to keep competitively priced oil flowing to U.S. consumers.

"We understand that motorists were delighted with extremely low gasoline prices," Thurm says. "But low oil prices have precipitated a wrenching collapse in the domestic petroleum industry that will lead to a rapid rise in imported oil and increased U.S. dependence on unstable Middle Eastern governments. Because so many domestic producers are in serious trouble, we could well see prices spiral upwards in the future after U.S. production is devastated."

Today, explains Thurm, as a result of the prolonged low oil prices, "Hundreds of producers teeter on the brink of bankruptcy. Thousands of people in the producing regions are out of work. The number of workover rigs in the field has dropped 50 percent, while the overall rig count is at a historic low. And spending on exploration and production -- the foundation of our future -- is down 40 percent."

The price uptick to about $18 per barrel -- less than a third of the historic high -- is not enough to encourage a return to drilling, Thurm says, especially when you consider that even this modest rise depends on OPEC countries' keeping their pledge to reduce production and export. "In the past," Thurm points out, "compliance with OPEC quotas has been inconsistent and unreliable."

Even if the industry begins to recover, U.S. producers will be hard pressed to increase production even to the levels seen immediately before the price collapse because, over the past months, they have had to shut in 130,000 wells. "Few of those wells will come back at the same volume they produced before the shut-in," says Thurm, explaining that "when fluid doesn't flow in a well, natural acids corrode downwell equipment and tubing. Even worse, water has a chance to migrate through the field, displacing oil and gas and changing pressurization. In the end, we're likely to have to plug and abandon about half of the shut-in wells -- 65,000 once-valuable national assets that have turned into dead losses."

The result will be "significantly increased dependence on foreign governments for the petroleum that is the lifeblood of our economy," says Thurm. "We're likely to see the result not only in a lower standard of living and people out of work but also in lives lost in another Gulf War." The last time the United States suffered from extremely low crude oil prices was in 1986. The price crisis started a precipitous decline in production and as a result, the nature of the domestic oil industry was fundamentally altered. The decline in production had only recently been arrested. Since 1986, the U.S. has become dependent on imports for more than half its crude oil.

"Gasoline today is still an incredible bargain," he notes. "Even with the uptick, we're still paying less at the pump than we pay for the bottled water we buy in the gasoline station's convenience market. But if we lose America's small independent oil and gas producers, we could be seeing much higher prices at the pump and a return of the long gasoline lines."
fox
anglogold
fox
03/05/1999 ANGLOGOLD, at a briefing on its March results, blamed the
investment community for prolonging the current gold malaise by
urging their clients to sell whenever the price rose - every
rally an opportunity. Executive director Kelvin Williams said
physical off-take of gold worldwide right now was reassuring
with signs of a recovery in both South-East Asia and the Middle
East - proposed gold sales in Switzerland and the IMF already
discounted and unlikely to affect prices. Publisher: Citizen
beesting
President Clinton being sued by 17 congressmen.
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press99/pr050199.htmThis press release doesn't relate directly to Gold in any way,but prompted a telephone call from New Zealand to our house(U.S.)as it got major television coverage in New Zealand.
My question is out of 435 congressmen/women how come only 17 joined in the lawsuit? Are the others really sheep dressed in modern clothing?

I also second the motion on the floor,if I have voting rights(regarding special posts) I've already personally bookmarked about 20 posts that I thought were outstanding,although they're all outstanding. AragornIII leads my personal list with 7 outstanding contributions.

Aristotle msg.5517 I wish I had the power to vote you on the Congressional Banking committee here in the U.S. they(WE) could use your help.

Gold mine shares seem to be continuing heavy trading at this hour,feels like a 5.6 trillion ton Gold train starting out of the station with a slow climb to ??(10,000ft-dollars)ahead...........beesting
fox
intro
foxgentleman,
I am from belgium , watching very carefully the south African market; My language is not the english language, i will surely try to do my best. Best regards to all the publishers in this very highstanding forum ( il y en a d'autres )
beesting
Quote from FOA also bookmarked!
"Even the well written history of paper money,with all it's chronicled destruction cannot convince modern man that Gold can and will fully demoney paper!In our present lifetime."
A written Golden nugget........beesting
beesting
Welcome fox
I for one would like to hear your perspective on how Gold is viewed in Belgium by you and your associates.Also, don't worry about your English,mine is terrible and I was born in the U.S. I refer to my dictionary often,as I'm sure many other posters do too...........beesting
TownCrier
FWN Closing NY Metals
New York-May 3-FWN--William O'Neill, director of futures
research with Merrill Lynch, noted that June gold was locked in an 80-cent
range during the day session and was not able to benefit
from another surge in energy prices.
"Oil hit $19 (a barrell) for the first time since
December of 1997, so people will be keeping a watch on that
for potential inflationary implications," said O'Neill. "But
there wasn't much effect today."
Support for June gold was put at $284.50, while
resistance was pegged at $289.50.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
IMM currency futures end mixed, yen ebbs sharply
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 3--Gold was extremely quiet, with Jun settling up 20c at
$287.60 per ounce after trading in a narrow range.
Traders said that with the stock market "soaring away" again, and with the
UK and Japanese players out for holidays, metals were largely ignored.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $287.6, dn 20c; RANGE: $288.2-287.0

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Tomcat
On your post #5517 regarding the valuation of gold.

This post is truely exceptional. It was better the second time I read it.

Your wrote: "As a result, the price of Gold currently bears no correlation to other real things, and further, gives no insight into the true value (or weakness) of the dollar that
'prices' it. It will be helpful for what follows to recognize that a dollar is valued at what the latest seller determines it to be worth...a candy bar, a dozen eggs, a gallon of gas."

I must admitt that this is such a fundamental truth that it is easy to forget. Thanks for the reminder. Your statement reminded me that the value of the dollar is so very dependent on the flight to quality. But, "quality" is on the decline!

You wrote: "...the price of Gold would move to reflect mankind's confidence (or lack thereof) in the entities that are issuing the proxy currencies..." This forum has become a meeting place where the issue of confidence has become an underlying and central theme. Such strange times when factors like y2k can strike a blow at global confidence resulting in a foriegh flight to quality in the dollar but upon arrival (from their flight) they find quality wanting!

Regarding "proclimation of valuation" to resolve all debts. Perhaps this day is really coming and with it the "Mother of All Inflations". Could this be one of the reasons why private parties retain 80,000 tons of gold? I would expect governments faced with this to outlaw private ownership and we would see the development of financial black markets and the hiding of gold.

Got a shovel?
Usul
Nostradamus
http://www.cs.uu.nl/wais/html/na-bng/alt.prophecies.nostradamus.htmlMK et al,

The Nostradamus prophecies are fascinating but at the
end of the day they do make more sense in retrospect.

Albert Nanomius, associated with the Newsgroup alt.prophecies.nostradamus (as is often the case, this
newsgroup has more noise than signal) has compiled
FAQs which might be of interest at the above link.
From what I have seen on the internet, one would be better
served at the library or bookshop.

One of the fascinating verses, Century II, Quatrain 32,
reads "After the milk of wellbeing, the blood of the people
will flow in Yugoslavia, when war breaks out, as well as
a calamity near Ballenstedt. The [war] cry will be loud
throughout Russia. Thus, then, a scourge will be born near
and in Ravenna.

Now, despite this translation being made many years ago before the breakup of Yugoslavia and Nostradamus having
written originally in the 16th century the Yugoslavia/Russia situation is clear; however, I scratch my head over
Ballenstedt (a small place in Germany) and Ravenna.
Stocks and shares in defence related companies may benefit
in the short term from a war. However, as in WWII, a
prolonged conflict will be a financial drain on the
economy and will not be good for equities. In times like
this, a little gold insurance will be good to own.
TownCrier
Dow jumps past 11,000 on reports
http://dynamic.webpoint.com/news/tribune/story/0,1021,105010557,00.htmlFastest traverse of 1,000 point milestones in market history.
At these heights it could have been any one of us to discover George Mallory atop Mount Everest after 75 years.
See that interesting story here:
http://www.seattletimes.com/news/nation-world/html98/moun_19990503.html
Aristotle
Tomcat and beesting--about 5517
Thank you for confirming that it was of some use. If I am only wasting space, I need to be made aware of that also.

Upon looking it over, I hope the meaning of this comment was clear, "...the slate would be wiped clean of all outstanding government liabilities using all of its Gold assets in an act that would yield the lowest possible price of Gold as needed to balance the books."

This 'lowest possible price' would easily put Gold well into the THOU$AND$.

That's all I have time for at the moment. Hopefully after a long-overdue meal I will be able to get a byte in edgewise through my Internet Service Provider that is always jammed to capacity on Monday and Tuesday nights. Wish me luck.

Fox! Glad to have you join us. It is always a treat to see our Round Table expand in size.

By the way...what's with the DOW? Man, you couldn't drag me into that wild party. The only thing possibly more fragile than a fiat dollar is Market Capitalization. Sheeeeeeesh! Goldman Sachs will have themselves a nice little feeding frenzy tomorrow. I surely join with the others in thanking them for ringing the bell to signal the top. Sure, the DOW could go higher still; but brother, it's already a loooooooong way down, and I'm getting worried about the splash radius!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Jon
Aristotle - gold in 1000's
Hope you're right. However reminds me of the song "quando,quando,quando???
Tomcat
Announcement by Tony Blair of the beginning of the NWO and worldwide financial reform
http://38.201.154.108/articles/?a=1999/4/23/70143
If you have ever wondered if the NWO would ever stand up and make itself known then you need wonder no more. Here is the outline for a one-world ruling body. Included are the intentions for international financial reform.
Christine
@Tomcat--More on NWO by Alan Greenspan
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990429.htm Hello Tomcat. I find Tony Blair's tone and words chilling.

Here is first paragraph from text of Greenspan's speech April 29--
"One way to address the issue of the management of foreign exchange reserves is to start with an
economic system in which no reserves are required. There are two. THE FIRST IS THE OBVIOUS CASE OF A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY. The second is a MORE USEFUL STARTING POINT: a fully functioning, fully adhered to, floating rate world."

Comments:
1. "How is the US able to withstand the changes? Is it even possible? ..... A fully functional, floating exchange rate
mechanism would seem to be a death wish for those with a nasty trade imbalance. ie, the US dollar." (Earl from Kitco)

2. IMHO, it, NWO, is be introduced piece by piece. The question is, what will happen to convince us to accept it. I suspect significant financial trauma. Trauma that was planned some years back
SteveH
June gold now...
$287.70 and a large spread too. Crosses both upper and lowre bollinger, she does. Tells me next two hours might see a dollar rise in price. Time will tell. Spread is narrow on the bollingers and a direction is imminent.
Chicken man
Aristotle
Your post required some heavy duty thinking.....I read....reread ...and rereread...hope I got it..

The main point I "think" we differ on is...you are thinking along the line of a curriency "weakening or depreciation of some sort.....I'm thinking a long the line of a curriency "collapse".......worth nothing .....zippo!

When a country got in trouble for printing their script too fast...that is faster than the bench mark script (US$)....the IMF boyz would go in and "straighten things
out"....we could go on and on as to the results, but that is a topic for discussion for another time........the point being there was always somebody to do the "rescueing"......who could "rescue" the largest debtor in the world....and "if" there was ,who is to say they would want to rescue us..? The US was there to rescue Mexico(or should I say Goldman Sachs) with the Brady Bonds.....their script(peso) weakened,but did not collapse....but going back in history...who was there to help France in 1790's or Weimar Germany in 1922 or Bazil in the late 50's....I could go on and on but history has proven that fiat monetary systems do not work.....sure some are gradual devaluations...but with the derrivative exposures of the US banks and Y2K and our massive trade imbalance(debt,iou's markers what ever one calls it)...this is going to unwind very fast and furrious
Please don't be offended by my style of posting....writing and composing are not my stronger suits....and it is not the nature of the chicken man to not love...thank you !
onlychild
Christine
I've been reading your posts since you came to this site and I have concluded that you are a very intelligent individual. However, I belive that you are a paranoid fanatic intent on fereting out anything that appears the least bit covert. A regular chicken little, a complete radical...........uh, so, anyway I think you're pretty cool! I'll buy you a beer sometime.
onlychild
Oops
Believe
Christine
@OnlyChild
Are you paranoid too, or are you insulting me. Just checking. Don't want to jump to any conclusions. (-:>~
Aristotle
Chicken man, thanks for the comments
I am pleased by the attention you have given my message. I'd say the difference between us is a distance not so great that it couldn't be spanned with a handshake.

The point you recently raised is valid, the U.S. is too big to be rescued by some outside agent. And maybe 20 years into the future it would be easiest if the dollar were not still limping around in a greatly devalued form, but rather, extinguished now as you suggest by a complete collapse to "zippo!" followed by starting afresh with a sound replacement.

Here is the catch I see in that scenario. First, the social and economic turmoil would be politically unbearable to abruptly extinguish the dollar, and move on to something else. The public would much more easily adapt to a dollar that smoothly evolved into the new form and value--first by the requisite devaluation, followed by the necessary sound monetary policy and appurtenant underpinnings. And second, the U.S. (happily) need not look to outside help in a bailout if the end goal were the return to sound money. As I tried to demonstrate, the level of devaluation could be determined at will by the government to nearly any level below some workable threshold point that would facilitate paying off accumulated debt with high-priced Gold; again, the government establishing the official dollar-to-Gold ratio (i.e., price). If this debt were settled with only one ounce of Gold, then your scenario plays out, because the term 'dollar' becomes meaningless at $5 trillion per ounce. Although, we then have full use of the remaining eight thousand tonnes of Gold with which to try to shock a flat-lined, comatose national economy back to life after the economic lifeblood (money) has been destroyed through this absolute devaluation.

If, on the other hand, the government chooses to initiate a bailout program on itself that would cause the least disruption, much more of the government-held Gold would be used to settle the debt, resulting in a starting point for the 'new dollar' that would be more strongly defined in gold, say, $10,000 per ounce--rather than the example given above.

Going into the future, I don't see these currencies as the same fiat currencies we have all grown to know and despise, yet I don't see the true Gold-standard that maybe many of us would like to envision, either. On the horizon I see instead an interesting variation on the Gold-standard that I'm sure we will enjoy immensely more than anything we have experienced to-date.

Gold. Save yourself--get you some. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
Article supporting one of FOA and ANOTHER's fundamental thoughts
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990503/bdu.htmlThe headline reads, "Higher commodity prices boost emerging economies." It goes on to explain that the recent upturn in commodity prices has helped turn around various failing national market economies. My understanding is that the euro is intended to further foster this upturn in global growth through a return to fairly valued commodities, based upon currency underlain by fairly valued Gold. ---Aristotle
SteveH
June gold now...
$286.90. Direction determined for now. Ask is $287.40.
Oregon Geezer
From today's New York Times editorial --- Gold vs. Greenspan
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/editorial/04tue4.htmlThe title of the editorial is something like "Who needs gold when we have Greenspan?"
SteveH
Mozel is Another?
Date: Tue May 04 1999 05:18
mozel (@Gold Loans @On a national basis, the United States has refused to settle accounts in gold) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since 1971. Countries which accummulated from trade surplus with the United States have had to choose between leaving it in the international monetary system or converting it to gold and not being able to use it in the international monetary system. Thus, every greenback which was converted to gold drained liquidity from the international monetary system. Two years of Anglo production has been forward sold. Twelve years of the NEM Indo mine have bee "pre-sold". Gold loans looked like a way to compensate for the drain in liquidity from conversion of trade suprplus into gold. And, that is what it has done. But, when the loans are closed, where will the liquidity come from ? This is the bind on the IMF which the Euro presents. Gold is monetary in Europe. Trade surplus converted to gold is not a drain on Euro liquidity. When the $US loses its position in the basket of currencies which make up the IMF SDR, it will also lose its position as the reserve currency. Oil is the commodity that crosses borders in the greatest number of transactions. If oil countries begin to contract for settlement in Euros, non-European nations will need Euro balances. When the $US is no longer the currency held as reserve by countries in the IMF, will the US remain in it ?

Naww! Couldn't be...could it?
Christine
Mozel suggests the IMF may go broke
Mozel (02:19) at Kitco, suggests the euro countries may pull out of IMF, and that would drain IMF liquidity and cause its bankruptcy--this may be real motive for them to sell gold. He provides in-depth financial analysis at this post
Julia
Christine
Christine, I've tried to find the time to write to you before now. Sorry for the delay.

I am so glad you are at this forum with the other wonderfuly intelligent minds. As I wrote in the last USAGOLD contest, I see financial manipulation as the real problem. It scares me much more than inflation. I've lived through inflation before. It is part of a free market, right? Financial manipulation is on the other hand something sinister and confusing, evil if youwill. How can a free market ever exist with that going on? The financial market is like a big gambling ring "owned" by thugs who want what they want when they want it and have found ways to do it.

I hold gold because it is real and I owe no one. But I'm a red-blooded , American and admit that the profits these guys are making are huge and it is tempting to jump in there with them. But I always come back to the idea that this bubble could burst at any moment when the thugs decide they had pushed it for all it is worth and pull out.

At any rate I read your writing with interest. You obviously have an in depth understanding of finances, which is something I lack.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Julia
Christine
IMF and gasoling shortages--Warning--Paranoid posting
@Julia--thanks for the comments

Date: Tue May 04 1999 08:32
chris (@Mozel--Gasoline shortages and IMF, $US crisis all at once?) ID#293447:
Copyright � 1999 chris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If I understand, you are suggesting IMF may go bankrupt, or U.S. may have to leave the IMF and euroland
would stay. Either way, big trouble for the US dollar. Oil will have to be paid for in euros, which will cost dearly.
So, at same time, refineries have been moved out of U.S., plus there have recently been at least 4 refinery fires in
U.S., plus more outside of U.S. Plus, per Simmons article on oil, the oil shorting that held the price of oil down to
extreme lows the last 2 1/2 years has caused serious temporary loss of supply of oil, if not permanent. To me, US
dollar and IMF instability, and a staged gasoline crisis in the U.S.,appear to be designed to occur roughly
simultaneously.
Tomcat
Aritstotle and Chicken Man

Now, this is getting really interesting. Chicken Man and Aristotle, could you expound on what would happen, in your models, to the US indutry/business/finance sector. How fast would the currency collapse occur? What might trigger the loss of confidence? What would remain of industry/banking/finance and commerce? Are you suggesting a rapid a total collapse or a controlled one? I think you both are on to something but I can't yet think and project with the models?

Since we are speculating with various models I would like to throw one in.

Why not let a controlled inflation occur by contolling the price of gold up slowly. Yes, the short folks would die but the gold is still in someones hands. This inflation would be small enough to keep the industrial/business/finance sector intact (with many failures of course) but large enough to allow a substantial paydown of all kinds of debt by the parties that survive.

Of course, many of the survivors would be those holding gold which could easily, with this scenario, go to $3000-$10,000 levels. The lenders and governments would not lose because real estate, due to unpayable taxes, would be transferd bact to them. It would be the old fashioned way of taking all the wealth away from the little guy and make him pay the bills. The big losers would be those holding the government debt.
TownCrier
Dollar opens US above 121 yen, but ECB props up euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/op.htmlLife among marionettes, er, currency traders. They dance but they don't really know why.
TownCrier
Monk's Gold Donations Top One Ton
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/od/story.html?s=v/nm/19990504/od/gold_1.htmlAs it should be...
Both cash and gold collected;
Gold gets the headline.

(a neat little story)
TownCrier
U.S. Treasuries slide further, dealers dump bonds
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Report: A Tidal Wave of Debt and Easy Money; Bond Marekt a Warning Shot Across the Bow?
MARKET UPDATE (5/4/99): Gold continued a gentle easing trend this morning with
London coming back on line uneventfully after Monday's holiday, Japan shut down for
Golden Week and all eyes on New York where things have been quiet for the past few
session as well. Dealers are saying that last week's short covering has abated for the time
being. The euro was up this morning on European rumors that behind the scenes
maneuvering on the Balkans War might lead to a cessation of bombing, but that could very
well be misplaced optimism on Europe's part. All in all, things are very quiet this morning
and we will be patient about this market.

Gold is doing well when you consider the dollar is soaring, the DJIA just traversed 1000
point in the shortest period in history, and U.S. markets are being viewed worldwide as a
safe haven in an unsafe world. All this rides though on a tidal wave of debt and easy money
-- an "economic Titanic" as The Reaper's R.E. McMaster calls it. Money growth (M3) is
up 11% over the past six months and most of that has gone into what McMaster calls "an
exhilarating narcotic" -- the stock market. For gold to be locked in this range just under
$290 is something of a victory for the yellow metal and warning to financial community that
underneath it all, there lies a fragile and wobbly foundation. Investor confidence, already
shaky, could graduate to a selling panic at any sign of this foundation cracking. The falling
bond market may have already issued a warning. Says McMaster (in his most interesting
latest issue a portion of which I offer as a way of bringing some intellectual interest to what
starts as a dull day in the markets): "We're seeing a blowoff, a mania in stocks, ironic, too,
isn't it, with the hit movies of late having such titles as Deep Impact, Volcano,
Armageddon, Titanic and now Noah's Ark. The DJIA represents the best of all upcoming
good times, as if the market was a discounting mechanism, while current events and movies
predicting the future are projecting the worst upcoming times. How long until a resolution
of this tension?"

We'll leave you with that thought. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters. The
sentiments raised in the paragraph above, by the way, are pretty much the sentiments
echoed by investors purchasing gold over the past few days. After a quiet second half of
April, due probably to the double whammy tax hit, things are picking up right where they
left off end of March at Centennial Precious Metals. Investors are buying this inexpensive,
barbarous relic as if it had some useful purpose. The financial press needs to get out the
hammer and resurrect somebody somewhere selling some gold....anybody will do. Public
interest in the yellow is on the rise again!

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
TownCrier
A must read: Dow Jones milestones
onlychild
Christine
No, I wasn't insulting you. That is just my brand of sarcastic humor. I really do enjoy your posts as well as many others on this forum. I spent alot of time in the principals office for my sense of humor many years ago. I share many, if not all of your fears, and it is refreshing to find a woman with your views. I bet you don't know too many either. I respect your thoughts and opinions, keep up the good work! Oh, and I still owe you a beer.
USAGOLD
E-Mail Question for Another and/or FOA from Steve
Michael,

I'm at work and don't have my password, but I don't want to
forget these thoughts. The Saudi/Iran talks seem to have
vast implications, not only on possible oil prices, but with
regards to reliance on the US military. Could it be that
Saudi doesn't have the same faith in the US, could it be that
a Saudi repudiation of the dollar might anger the US? An alliance
with Iran would lessen the need for US military presence, thus
opening the way for pricing oil in Euros or, perhaps, a basket of
currencies, ie dollar/euro/yen.

Could you post this for opinions. I'd be interested to what
you, Another and FOA think.

Steve
TownCrier
Greenspan, Rubin to testify May 20 to House panel
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/22.htmlFirst in a series of hearings.
Christine
@Aristotle--Your scenarios sound very plausible
Your scenarios for how the US government might traverse through this financial mess sound very feasible. Even gold at 10,000 doesn't sound unrealistic, given all the money creation that has gone on. I am praying for your sensible, intelligent view of things--may our government get it.
Clint H
Tomcat post 5557

Tomcat, your post suggested; someone's hands.>
How many ways are there to control the price of gold and let it rise slowly? If it rises at all, selling short to hold the price would be a disaster to the short seller. Bringing the price from $420 to $280 in hindsight was not difficult in how it was done. Not smart for some but still a no-brainer. Selling long would not produce the same results.
Am I missing something here?
TownCrier
Watch and you shall learn! HEADLINE: Saudi Arabia Raises Gas Prices by 50% at Home
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia-May 4-FWN/UPI--Saudis were
surprised to find the price of gas for their vehicles has
increased by 50 percent without prior notice.
Gas station owners say they received instructions from
the main oil-producing company, ARAMCO, to raise their
prices today without providing reasons for the decision.
The sudden rise in refined oil came despite the fact
that Saudi Arabia is the largest oil-producing country in
the world, with 8 million barrels per day.
No official statement or comments were made about the
sharp rise and it is unclear whether the kingdom plans to
increase the price of its exported oil.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Mostly Lower; Gold Dips in Range Trading
New York-May 4-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished mostly softer here today, with gold, silver and
palladium all weakening but platinum managing a modest
gain.
Gold futures finished slightly softer in what was
described as a largely range-bound market, after prices rose
last week following an earlier decline that was tied to
worries about potential sales of International Monetary Fund
reserves of the metal. June gold slid 70 cents today to
settle at $286.90.
"With the gold, we've been in a $5 range," said Richard
Padron, director of research for Concorde Trading Group,
about the recent activity in this metal. "It's been more of
a technical picture....We're mostly range trading, and there
hasn't been much direction."

He pointed out that volume has been light so far this
week, in part because Tokyo markets have been closed so far
due to the Golden Week holidays in Japan.

He noted there are some market observers suggesting
that the worries about IMF sales may be "overblown" and that
any falls in price could be "buying opportunities."
Padron put support for June gold around $285 and
resistance around $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Christine
US oil production down sharply from one year ago
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001278 Gasoline shortages coming?--Big decline in US oil production



Oil imports up 11% from one year ago. Current US crude
production lowest in 50 years:
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001278

Oil well and natural gas completions down dramatically
over one year ago: "Total exploratory completions were
down 40 percent in the first quarter and development
completions were down 33 percent compared to the same
quarter last year."
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001353

54,000 US petroleum jobs lost in past 16 months
http://www.api.org/release.cgi?id=N001347

What was this damage to US oil industry caused by?
Artificially low oil prices last 2 1/2 years, which
were caused by financial manipulations, oil
deriviatives, shorting, just like with gold.(See Simmons speech text)
Tomcat
Clint H

Clint, I believe you are right. It has been said by many that there will be an avalanche of short covering. I just don't how much short blood would spill.

However, you make a very good point in that you can control the POG downward movement a lot easier than you can control the upward movement. Thanks for the correction.
USAGOLD
Peter Munk Blasts Hedge Funds and Central Banks for Undermining Gold Market
In a Reuters report released in Toronto about an hour ago, Barrick Gold Corp. chairman Peter Munk blasted central banks and hedge funds "for undermining the value of gold." In a report that Reuters converted from an attack on central bank/hedge fund disinformation to an anti-gold propaganda piece, Munk condemned central banks for fostering "enormous negativism by "effectively exchanging hundreds of tons of gold in favor of interest-bearing U.S. dollar denominated securities." Munk also told reporters that hedge funds " 'out to make a buck' had exaggerated rumors and a general lack of information in the gold industry to profit from the downward spiral in bullion prices."

---------

The story came over our in-office Reuters service. I could not find an internet link to the full story.
TownCrier
Circular logic -- Y2K and banks
"[Sen. Gramm spokesperson] Dempsey also reiterated that Americans' money is safer in banks rather than under a mattress or in a jar even if a glitch should occur, because the money is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)."
CoBra(too)
Vertigo...
May 5 1999 - after reading Town Criers post "milestones" of DJII I felt the urge to check pertinent intraday charts. Vertigo, or the fear of flying seems an accurate description (IMHO).

(Has Abbey shot the last bull(et) at 11.00 p.m. last nite, as promised to old bud RR, or is it just coincidental. BTW GS IPO was trading up 46% at initial trade after being "conservatively" priced at 21,5 P/E. Let's wait for the double before all know the bubble was just that, a bubble.)
The only chart remaining pointing steeply upward was the 30y tsy yield curve closing at 5,72%, while XAU and other GM Indices at least formed a saucer type recovery.
Go Gold, man!(if you can)
Tomcat
A good definition of open interst
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/exfutopt.html
FOA has provided some golden advice to follow the open interest. I found this link helpful because it also includes the definitions for reportable positions, non-reportable positions, percent of open interest, and spreading.
CoBra(too)
@ Town Crier re Munk post
Give me a break - Peter Munk's ABX, the mother of all gold forward sellers, blames CB's and the rest of the alledged gold colluders for weak POG. Seems to fear shareholder's crucifying him as gold takes off, realising he won't ever be able to buy back in time ($400/oz - I bet'cha) .
el St.One
$ Price of GOLD
According to Gold analyst Philip Gotthelf writing in his recent book, THE NEW PRECIOUS METALS MARKET, a fully Gold backed world currency system would put the book value of Gold at $200,000 an ounce. A 100% Gold backed US dollar would give Gold a book value of $50,000 an ounce.

TownCrier
U.S. Senate takes up bank reform amid threats
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/bhg.htmlTwo sides of the same fiat coin: Republicans and Greenspan square off against Democrats and Rubin.
TownCrier
Oil rally stokes Brent price to 17-month high
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990504/bhz.htmlOil, and dwindling "stockpiles."
canamami
Re: Saudi/Iranian Rapprochement
Further to a topic raised by FOA, this is an interesting article on the possible Saudi/Iranian rapprochement.

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/050499.ASP
canamami
Iran/Saudi Arabia
Al Fulchino
value of gold
I have a question for the forum. There is much talk here about the true unhindered price of gold. If it were to rise substantially or meteorically as has been suggested here, would it take along with it things such as real estate, autos, normal items we purchase, or would it actually rise by itself, having been supressed and now have a higher purchase ability? I often hear it said that an ounce of gold always will buy a good suit. Is that the case here, where we will see items like this rise with gold...or will we be able to purchase dozens of suits? Thank you
SteveH
June gold now...
$287.10. Going to be one hell of a year. Already:

War
Littleton
Oklahoma
Y2K
Dow 11,000
GS IPO
Hurricane forcasted to be worst than most.
Lowest oil prices and other commodities in 20 some years.
More and I can't remember...
What next?
Al Fulchino
gasoline
In case anyone is interested...my wholesale went up two more cents today 61.55 reg super is 81.55 cts/gal can remember the middle price this 18 cents in about 45 days
Tomcat
Oil Prices and Y2k

Noone can predict how much of our foriegn and even domestic oil will be impacted by Y2k. One can predict, however, that even a small amount of oil/y2k trouble will give the oil firms an excuse to the raise the price at the pump. Even in a scenario where Y2k did not have a big impact nationally, the international troubles from y2k will provide a great excuse to raise prices.

If the y2k scare is high, people might be more than willing to pay higher prices and be thankful they have gas available to purchase.

Also, there will be an opportunity for compliant oil firms to purchase non-compliant firms.
Peter Asher
Steve! Gandalf! ?????
Kitco spot now up $1.30, Quote Com not yet showing any gcm9 bid and asked, in the time frame since the jump so no way to confirm.
SteveH
Peter
I too noted that gc9m hasn't budged since what? ... 19:12. If spot is indeed up by that amount then that is very good. A run tonight above $290.00 would do wonders for this baby gold bull.

Steve
SteveH
Ooops!
Peter,

It just did $286.90 but then mine is 30-minutes behind too.
Tomcat
From mozel at Kitco

Date: Tue May 04 1999 20:18
mozel (@chris @The Hinge of Gold ) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Saw your posts. Someday, I suppose somebody will locate the ultimate source of the phantom barrels of oil which overhung the oil market and caused oil to follow gold down in $US. The consequences of it will be arriving for some time.

The International Monetary Fund and system was conceived and put into place to accommodate the refusal of the United States to settle trade in gold. To accommodate a fiat reserve currency, in other words. Now, the hinge of gold is set to swing in the other direction. When nations reduce or eliminate their holdings of $US as reserves, and every nation in the Euro circle has already done so, the position of the United States in the IMF SDR basket will be reduced. When the exchange markets see this pending, the $US will trade lower. Gold will rise, and a liquidity crisis and draults will ensue. The foreign exchange markets will sell the $US. These developments will further undermine the $US position in the basket of currencies. At this point the US could very possibly fail to make the cut that keeps the $US in the basket at all. The liquidity of the IMF itself will fail from these same consequences. The international monetary system based on the IMF will either be no more or gold will become a marked to market monetary asset within the IMF. In any case,
when the IMF no longer serves its purposes, the United States may very well liquidate its deposit and walk away from it.
beesting
Another good reason for a stronger EURO in the future.
http://www.barney.co.za/news/may99/eurobourse4.htmEight European stock markets agree to form Pan-European market.

Europe's biggest markets,London and Frankfurt were joined by those in Amsterdam,Brussels,Madrid,Milan,Paris and Zurich.....See above URL.

Although Britain is not currently part of the Euro-Zone all British quoted companies are free to issue shares in EUROS.

(Alan Greenspan quote:Competition in the market place is healthy for all parties.) Got Gold???........beesting
FOA
Muslim defence force with Saudi Arabia!!
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/Khatami for military alliance with Riyadh

"TEHERAN - Iranian President Mohammad Khatami
yesterday stepped up calls for the creation of ajoint Muslim defence force with Saudi Arabia, saying a powerful alliance with Riyadh would make their enemies "fearful."

"The security of Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region is our security. We don't need foreign forces for that," the Iranian president told visiting Saudi Defence Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz."

ALL: I think the region needs a new gold coin to start things off correctly! Perhaps one is in the works?
Will have more to say on this defense pact in a few days.

FOA
PH in LA
New essay by Ted Butler
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/butler050599.html
Ted Butler has a new essay over at one of those other forums (see URL). His comments have always seemed well thought out, even if I can't pretend to completely understand them. Maybe some of the better minds here than mine will be able offer some elucidation.
Chicken man
Tomcat
Interesting questions!....."how fast?"..In 1918 in Germany an egg cost a quarter of a mark...in the summer of 1923 an egg cost 5,000 marks...by November of that same year it cost 80,000,000,000 marks!......fast enough for you....?...comes from page 177 of Jerome Smith's "Coming Curriency Collapse" copyright 1980....I'v been waiting for this a long time!.....oh..btw...comunications are a bit "faster" today!
"what could be the trigger?"....my guess..(?)..I'm thinking maybe the "cooking oil will demand to be paid in real cheesecake" as per the poster "Long Thin and Hard on This[THOUGHTS] over at Kitco on Apr 27 at 17:40......was posted here later that evening.......REAL good read...read it as a riddle and when he said "I know".....I have the feeling he is in a position that does know how the "story will unfold".......let's face it ...Some "one" knows how this is going to turn out....but do to their position in the system can NOT go on record as the one who "spilled the beans"....I am greatful that those who "know" share their insite to the "huddled masses"...we could meet in a phone both...not to many paying attention as to what is happening today behind the sceines (sp)....can't think and spell at the same time!
"Control inflation"....by price control?...just makes for a black market with No tax receipts...ie Russia
"The big loser as to debt?"...take a look at that guy in the mirror in the morning...that is the loser....the taxpayer's so called Social Security Trust Fund....we are the biggest holders of gov debt....nice feeling....eh?
"rapid collapse vs controlled one?"...in 1964 our Quarters were silver....4 quarters would buy 4 gallons of gas...today the same 4 silver quarters will still buy 4 gallons of gas....but when we got the phoney quarters(one for one...remember? )...it now takes 20 phoney quarters to buy 4 gallons of gas.....our curriency has lost 80% of it's buying power in 25 years...a drip at a time...so why is their such a big concern about the remaining 20% .....?
Thx tomcat
Aristotle...I'll respond soon.....got to do more thinking on that one!
Aristotle
Wow--an overnight price hike of 50% for fuel in Saudi Arabia. Very interesting.
canamami, thanks for this enlightening post earlier--"Re: Saudi/Iranian Rapprochement."

Tomcat and Al Fulchino:
I don't believe I can with any level of credibility provide answers to your worthwhile questions...there are simply too many variables as the government would surely try to fight the path of least resistance in an effort to retain a measure of future control over the currency. In a general sense, it would be safe to say that the prices of all real things, including wages, would rise as a result. Some would adjust faster than others, depending on their position in the economic 'food chain.' Nothing would rise rise by a multiple greater than Gold, as its value would be assured by its eminent role in the monetary system. So while a good suit may in the future sell for several thousand devalued dollars, once ounce of Gold might very well be the monetary equivalent of two, maybe three good suits. Simply look at what happened to the prices of things in nations notorious for past devaluations, and on top of that, epect Gold to be held in much, much higher regard everywhere.

In such a scenario, we would expect those with cash savings to be hit the hardest, as its purchasing power drops with the devaluation. Debtors would happily pay off their loans with devalued dollars, while their lenders would suffer by equal and opposite degree. Gold savers would make out best of all. Businesses with inventory to sell would do ok also, as they are high in the food chain. They could easily mark up prices to compensate for the weaker dollar (just like they did in Germany in the early 1920's.)

Again, this is primarily a mental exercise that must be greatly simplified to generalizations. As long as markets remain open and vital, the economic principles of supply and demand , etc., can help you reason through a plausible outcome.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Chicken man
(No Subject)
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q2/1999_04/990427.174050.thin_long.htmHope this works!.....One must read the riddles of life!
Aristotle
Hey, Chicken man...we had coincident posts in time and content.
Amazing. I've got a headache and am turning in. Sorry for the sloppy content as a result. We'll get into this a bit more tomorrow, ok? I've got some Belgian gold francs on the way...the excitement must have gotten the better of me. (Now you all know what the stirrings were in the castle's treasury today. Anyone care to donate fresh horses to the knights in charge of delivery?)

Excitement. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Tomcat
Chicken man

Your numbers from Germany are astounding.

Your point that we now have much faster communications is one with many ramifications. When the inflation starts many people won't have time to get out of the stockmarket and get into cash and then buy something of value. Three days could be equivalent to three german weeks (1940s). Makes one more good reason to keep physical gold.

BTW, I like your writing style with all the ... I never liked all the formalities...maybe I'll do a little myself... :)

I sure have not planned to use my Soc Security. I do have lots of pre 65 silver though. I am a believer in silver for hard times purchasing power. I plan not to spend gold in hard times but to hold it to preserve wealth.

Anyway, I enjoyed and benefited from your reply.
Tomcat
The magic of Aristotle

Fellow Ladies and Knights. I bid for your attention. Have you noticed that Sir Aristotle often takes several mundane facts and joins them together to arrive with a magical result that tranforms ones understanding! Truely, with this man one plus one tis greater than two. Tis magic I say. Me thinks his power is of the Gods. This could be how it comes to be that he shares so much of his wealth.

Perhaps Sir Aristotle could hold the royal position of Royal Alchemist. What say ye?
SteveH
June gold now...
$286.70.
SteveH
Mozel again...
Are we sure he isn't another?

Date: Wed May 05 1999 03:08
mozel (@Fiat @Let It Be Done @The Emperor Commands @IMF @Gold Loans) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One day the Emperor Nixon refused to pay in gold and commanded that there be a fiat international monetary system. The World Bank and IMF were created. Now, in Europe gold is monetary again. Now, in Europe the limits of the Emperor's legions are being revealed. Soon, the Emperor's fiat international monetary system will be no more though it may survive in name. The day of interntational monetary fiat is drawing to a close. What happens next ?

In the past every $US of trade surplus which was converted to gold reduced the liquidity of the international monetary system. Yet, despite all the allure of $US bonds and interest and stock price increases and the penalites to holding gold built into the Articles of the IMF, nations have persisted in converting $US to gold. They have even bought gold forward. Gold Loans were a device to reverse this, a device to make sterile gold earn revenue. A gold loan increased $US liquidity just as a gold purchase reduced it. Gold loans to miners were a subsidy accomplishing two goals, at least. I think also gold loans were a device to move gold out of the physical control of the United States. To get European and English gold out of USG control in New Yawk and Denver. But, what happens now if the lenders stop lending ? Liquidity crunch. The lenders call the tune. Who are the lenders ? Well, who has gold to lend ? The Europeans and English, the BIS for the Saudi and Kuwaiti, and perhaps USG. By terminating the lending on a schedule, some of these lenders can effectively lay claim to every ounce of current production. And the price must rise. I have heard a rumor that when gold goes over $380, it will be time to head for the proverbial hills. I can't vouch for the particular number, but there is a number for POG above which there are not enough liquid $US to meet obligations. Particularly, leveraged obligations, the sort of obligations tied to a lot of gold loans. Bankruptcies and defaults create black holes in the universe of liquidity. Credit caught in them never comes out. The three "marketeers" got the international monetary system past the liquidity crisis caused by Asian black holes. And here approacheth another. It was interesting reading Gramlich's comments. If people only knew the trash quality of some of the paper which today collateralizes the fiat monetary system, they would head for the hills now. I have already posted about the scam of not returning the original loan papers which under the Uniform Commercial Code of thieves allows the banker to continue to collateralize on a paid off loan. How much of the international monetary system is collateralized by the US stock market ? Depository Trust Corporation. The day draweth nigh when there is nothing more to collateralize. And also the day when the collateral on the books has not its book value in the market. The Japanese problem and the American problem are perhaps not so different. Bubble A and Bubble B. I think I could show that, assuming usury on the loans, a gradual, irreversible deterioration of collateral quality is an inevitable consequence of a debt paper international monetary system. The embedded rate of usury determines the rate of deterioration.

LTCM showed the vulnerability. Now, the Emperor commandeth hedging. But, the problem of diminishing liquity with nothing left to collateralize to create new liquidity is the deeper problem for which there is no hedge. The number of $US taken out of the international monetary system to buy gold does not seem like so many. But, they are leveraged $US and that is the true measure of the drain on liquidity.

People mistakenly think based on wrong or insufficient understanding that the United States Government just prints money. But, it doesn't. Money is borrowed into existence. Land, improvements, and cars and other tangibles in the country and many intangibles are collateral for the currency. Foreclosure and seizure are the tools for recovery of collateral that are the foundation for full faith and credit in the currency and other obligations of the United States. Foreclosure by the banks for loans and by bondholders for bonds, and seizure by the IRS for tax debt. Accummulation by the usurious banks and insurance companies has been quietly proceeding for years as gagnrad pointed out. Vultures picking over and revealing the rot in the collateral of the credit dead. The S&L crisis was a mere foretaste, confined largely to a few states. A general slowdown will bring systemic collapse. USG cannot afford to defend the $US with interest rates.

Will the Federal Reserve have to put up gold as collateral to borrow Euros to buy $US to defend the currency ? Will an indexed bond be devised to entice others to lend to USG ? Will others accept the offer ? Whose index ? Measured by whom with whose data ?

What happens to $US now depends, it seems to me, on the motives of parties overseas. Trade barriers would prevent a devalued $US from exporting to Europe on price advantage. Europe seems to be raising those barriers, perhaps in anticipation. Reducing US exports also undermines $US position in the IMF basket. In hindsight, Kosovo may be revealed as an occassion to alienate European public opinion against both UK and US. The game afoot is one to force concessions without destroying relations, I think. The gameball is control of the $US price of the political metal. It is not inconceivable that POG will prove an unworkable concept altogether. And a new game with new rules will be required for trade among nations. Paper which does not have gold or silver for collateral would then become worthless between nations. The world got in its monetary mess when Germany collateralized the reichmark with German land and the US followed suit by collateralzing US land and improvements under FDR, domestically, and then under Nixon, internationally. But getting your collateral is a problem when it is under the physical control of the borrower. Repo work can be dangerous. Especially across borders. The world will get out of its monetary mess only when land and improvements are not used as the collateral for international trade. To bring the international monetary system to such a state that collateralizing gold for international trade and settlement is the necessary, inevitable choice of governments is the object of the game. Then, the gameball will not be POG, but gold itself.
PH in LA
More Smoke and Mirrors!

Just saw a noteworthy item on the morning news. "First Lady Hillary R. Clinton unveiled the design for the new US Dollar coin, blah , blah...the new coin will be GOLD COLORED and will bear the face of ... replacing the Susan B. Anthony... etc."

Is there a reason why they want it to look like gold?
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Gold in Stubborn Mind Set
MARKET UPDATE (5/5/99): Gold showed no change from yesterday in early New
York trading after an equally stubborn performance in London. Gold these days remains
disinterested in pleasing either the longs or the shorts. It clings to a narrow range with
strong physical demand cropping up whenever it drops and bullion bank/hedge fund selling
whenever it rises. The most interesting gold news to surface over the past 24 hours comes
out of Toronto where Barrick Gold Corp. chairman Peter Munk blasted central banks and
hedge funds for undermining the value of gold. According to a Reuters report yesterday,
Munk charged that "hedge funds 'out to make a buck' had exaggerated rumors and a
general lack of information in the gold industry to profit from the downward spiral in
bullion prices." Munk joins Gold Fields chairman Chris Thompson in publicly charging a
concerted effort in holding down the gold price. Thompson earlier this month blamed Wall
Street bullion traders for spreading false rumors about Gold Field's hedge book. Interest
rate fears continue to plague the bond market today -- a worry that could spill over to
stocks. Crude oil is down slightly at $18.60 (June NYM). Gold is rallying a bit as we go to
fetch this over.

Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.
TownCrier
A snapshot of various markets--Gold is the only winner at the moment
http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htmWas there ever any doubt?
TownCrier
There is no need to lose sleep over the slide in Europe's new single currency
Gandalf the White
Steve's Question
NO, Steve, Mozel is NOT ANOTHER ! The two are great in depth of thought and bring ideas to the surface for discussion, but totally separate in pattern of thinking and method of explaination. Would love to see the two of them debate though.
<;-)
Goldfly
Here's To The "Hall of Record"
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/19199812/day2.html
I stand in favor of such an archive.

I also nominate everything I ever posted that has at least two paragraphs in it! (Something is bound to stick!)

Perhaps my post at the above link is my best.

GF

TownCrier
IMM currencies mixed early, euro edges higher
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/u7.htmlThe amazing world or currency traders...swapping dollars to make a buck.
Aristotle
Tomcat and Alchemy
Well, my friend, your kindest of words last evening have thoroughly embarrassed me, but I will gladly accept the official role you suggested as Royal Alchemist. For it was only yesterday that I again demonstrated the remarkable ability to turn paper into Gold! It is so easy, we should ALL be Royal Alchemists.

Hey Gandalf, I think the proper question should be, "Is it possible that SteveH is really mozel?"

Paper. Get you some, then turn it into Gold. ---Aristotle
Gandalf the White
The "Best" of (humble) Goldfly
Well Brudder Goldfly, I can not whole heartedly agree that everything that you have posted should reach the "Hall of Record", (take of instances the skit on the Euro getting stronger in Oil than the US$ --- The reviews of that one were -- well I really do not know, BECAUSE no one said a single word ! BUT, sometimes silence is a bad review !
Ok, I will second the nomination of one of your best --posting #1436 on 12/19/98 !!! Twas FUNtastic!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
Aristotle's observations
Yes, Ari --- Steve may well be Mozel --- up and posting deep thoughts and quotes at ALL times of the day !

I agree with your Royal Alchemists thought too. Tis NOW very easy to make the green paper (w/portraits of Dead Presidents) into Gold ! Today there is evidence of this neat trick, is going to become more difficult, as the ONLY thing going in the correct direction (up) is GOLD. The picture that Goldhearts have been hoping for, is truly starting to fully appear, in accordance with the prognostication of our friends and mentors FOA and ANOTHER. My challange is to equal the Scroouge McDuck stash before the first limit up day on the COMEX.
<;-)
Aristotle
An aggressive looking chart!
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.htmlTake a look at that pointy, angry-looking black line that represents today's spot price. Gold has definately taken on the look of a lean, mean, fighting machine.

That reminds me of a discussion I had the other day with a friend. He was remarking that Gold certainly looked poised to go higher, but being a solid and inert asset such as it is, it would be a long hard road for it to rise in price. But he conceded that Gold was the only place to be given the overvaluation of the stock market--it could fall a lot easier than it could rise from these levels.

I agreed with his thoughts about the stock market, but asked him to reconsider his conclusion about the price of Gold. I reminded him that the price of Gold was not only based on the overall demand for this asset of solid value, but that it also included the 'dollar component' in the price. While Gold has itself as a guarantee of value, the dollar is only what people choose to believe it to be. It is on shakier ground than even the stock market. So I asked him to do the hypothetical math for the price of Gold, using solid value of Gold (in the numerator) and dividing by the 'value' of the dollar (in the denominator). Assuming today's dollar has a value of 'One', any decline results in a higher price for Gold. And if it fell toward zero, well...any value divided by zero is infinity.

Where my friend easily saw that Gold would moderately rise on demand alone, he now recognized that a vicious circle of price reinforcemant was now in place. A falling dollar would cause more demand for Gold, and each element would further boost Gold's 'price' while further diminishing the artificial confidence (and value) people place in the dollar.

I'm happy to say that as a result, he exercised his own skills as an alchemist and converted a great deal of paper into Gold. Methinks the castle's treasury-room below this Round Table must be getting quite bare. Hey MK, can you see the floor in places?

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Aristotle
Goldfly and the Hall of Fame
Thanks for the Blast for the Past. It shows how fun it can be to wander around the Archives once in awhile, and dangerous, too! I always get drawn further in by viewing the previous day or next day, etc. It is my opinion that the Archives in their entirety could serve double duty as a Hall of Fame also.

Although having said that, I can see the benefit to people new to our castle in providing a well-lit reading room of Golden classics.

Where have you been lately, Goldfly? Busy buying Gold with both hands, I trust? ---Aristotle

TownCrier
Oil Production Cuts Boost Prices
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990505/oil_price__1.htmlSupply and demand, and remarkable cooperation for a common cause--within and outside of OPEC.

TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Firmer; Gold Edges Above Recent High
New York-May 5-FWN--The precious metals complex ended
the day on a firmer note, with the "path of least
resistance" in gold and silver appearing on the upside,
sources here said.
June gold added $1.60 to $288.50, while July silver
firmed 7.2 cents to $5.3970. In both metals, trade remained
slow due to the Golden Week holidays in Japan, which has
left markets there closed the first three days of the
week.
"But today, anyway, it appeared the path of least
resistance was to the upside," said Dave Rinehimer, head of
futures research at Salomon Smith Barney.
He pointed out that June gold managed to take out last
week's $289 high, although not by much, topping out today at
$289.20.
"We're probing that resistance level," said Rinehimer.
"I think the idea was that if we moved above the highs, we
might be able to hit some stops on the upside. But there
didn't appear to be that much momentum after we took out
that (recent $289) high."
He noted that there did not appear to be any fresh
fundamental factors, although the market likely still has a
large net short speculative position--leaving room for
potential short covering. The market will get more
clarification on this Friday, when the next Commitment of
Traders report is due out.
Resistance in June gold was put at $290, while support
was pegged at $284.

"I think silver is basically following gold," said
Rinehimer about today's activity. "The volume is a little
bit lighter in the silver than in the gold.
"We saw a correction earlier in the week, and with the
gold turning up, there is a little more buying interest
coming into silver. But the volume is still pretty
light."
Rinehimer noted that gold and silver might have drawn
some support from worries about inflation, which has hurt
bonds lately.
"Gold and silver are pretty much technically driven at
this juncture. But with the recent breakdown in bonds and
stronger-than-expected economic news, the metals might be
reflecting some modest uptick in inflationary concerns,
although I don't think it's that meaningful."

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.

TownCrier
Y2K Glitch Will Burst Internet Bubble
http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19990504S0007This one is a must read...ripe with notable quotes!!


fox
NEWS from South Africa
FOXThe struggle for the richest goldmine in SA is over.
The richest goldmine, which is Driefontein (DRFNY), is now a part of Gold Fields (GLFD), not Gold fields of south Africa (GFSA). Gold Fields will be noted on the Nasdacq in stead of Driefontein . The exchanging rate will be 155 Driefontein for 100 Gold Fields;
Look at today's quote for DRIEFONTEIN !!
fox
(No Subject)
Foxforgot the link http://news.24.com/English/Business/Companies/ENG_46143_352283_SEO.asp
TownCrier
U.S. Growth cannot stay above trend--Chicago Fed
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/1k.htmlBlistering pace of recent quarter is unsustainable.
TownCrier
Dollar at risk from puncture in U.S. asset bubble
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/5c.htmlAnother must read. This article is more candid than most about the position of the dollar.
TownCrier
Russia hopeful on debt rescheduling
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_336000/336239.stmThings sure look bleak when your money goes bad--the wheels of your economy have no grease and no longer may turn.
TownCrier
The commodity trap
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334432.stmSomeone at the BBC wrote this one specifically for our Round Table...glimpses at the 5th Horseman.
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review [Don't let the ending make you mad.]
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 5--June gold settled up $1.60 at $288.50 per ounce after
reaching $289.20 per ounce today, its highest level in almost two
months. "A little bit of inflation is creeping into gold and silver. A bit of
the psychology that's weighing on the bond market is benefiting gold and
silver," said Bill O'Neill, analyst at Merrill Lynch. He noted that gold and
silver were being helped by continuing strength in crude oil prices. With a
large number of speculative shorts still out there "people are watching gold,"
he said.
Traders noted that some players are fearing a short covering rally and some
suggested that some of today's climb was options-related. The climb today in
the Philex XAU and Amex gold bugs index (HUI) also helped boost prices of the
underlying commodity said traders.

While some called this a "flight to quality" in reaction to the huge jumps in
"paper" which pushed the Dow Jones industrial average to record highs Wednesday, others
were dismissive.
One trader called the incursion of money into gold, which was accompanied by
some yen buying, a "flight to junk."
Traders noted that gold continues to have trouble rallying above the $290
resistance level.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $288.5, up $1.6; RANGE: $289.2-286.5

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htm
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
Dollar Drops Against Euro as Investors Seen Taking Money Outside of U.S.
Tomcat
Aristotle

Sir Aristotle, I have heeded your wisdom and just turned paper into gold. Twas not difficult at all. The Chair of Royal Alchemist is surely honored with your dignity and integrity.
Clint H
TownCrier Msg 5622

TC, interesting. Goldmeisters have become junk dealers. Are we looking for a last laugh here?
TownCrier
End-of-day tea leaves: Most IMM currencies end higher, euro up sharply
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990505/ba1.htmlCurrency strategist says today they have switched from bullish on the dollar.

(Clint H: I can almost sense the theme to Sanford & Son spilling out of my ears)
CoBra(too)
XAU, Gold, G-Mines, - A move in the right direction....?
Probably, yes for chartists, Elliot wave and Fibonacci et al apostles, a decisive move of POG was the missing link to catch up with XAU (sorry no confirmation yet, but right direction) on respective trends. I would long (hence & be long)to be a believer, but still feel the forces of the paper mongers having the upper hand (though, "white hand" seemingly is slowly starting to surrender to reality?), but we're not there yet.
BTW, Butler expressed my thoughts (last post} more implicitly - gold forwards or leases are effectively shorts!
Goldilocks markets driving Goldilocks economies? What's left? Go Gold Stocks vs. Gold -MAN" S(-ucks)achs - .....


Christine
Junk is beautiful
Go junk!
USAGOLD
Quack!
Question: When stocks continue to rise and earnings continue to plummet or prove to be non-existent, does that stock begin to take on less the characteristics of an equity and more the characteristics of a currency? To think of this in another way, if stocks have become a proxy for currency in the minds of the masses, what happens when stocks decide to quack like a duck?

Years ago I acquired a number of Revolutionary War debt instruments which had been redeemed by the federal government not in specie, but by issuing another note. A hole was punched in the old note and it was retired. Very convenient for the government but no doubt disturbing to the note holder who was left without a choice in the matter and was conscripted as a creditor of the government.

A promise to pay was met with another promise to pay. A stock is not even a promise to pay. A stock carries the full faith and credit of.......no one! Yet wave after wave of currency has been printed and pumped into the stock market by investors who have come to believe it is a promise to pay. A market which was invented essentially to distribute risk has become a proxy for money. When the tulips drop from $10,000 to 50�, the public will discover that there is no deposit insurance, no redemption recourse, no gold backing, only a $10,000 tulip worth 50�. Stocks have become a paper promise without a safety net of any description in this best of all possible worlds.

Quack.
SteveH
Peter, are you watching? Gandalf?
Gold just (june that is) hit 289.00 in overnight trading.

All systems check.

rockets, check.
instruments, check.
helmets,check.

All systems go.

10, 9, 8, 7, ....
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! All good Knights and Ladies: I direct your attention to The Gilded Opinion
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html"Bankers, (real ones) are always aware of the potential for a meltdown and the economic game doesn't go on without their involvement. Commerce requires that all transactions have to be paid for, which means financed. A good look at a list of bullion banks is also revealing since many of the "old" names in banking are also the "old" names in bullion dealing. However, you don't see too many "old" names on the share registers of high flying internet stocks. The "old" bankers have seen it all before and their guidelines go back several hundred years."

"Patriarchs may come and go but established banking guidelines do not change. That's the advantage of experience and an understanding of the cyclical nature of commerce and economics. "To hell with the new age theory, give me the gold any day", may well be their motto."

"The fallback position of European Central Banking and of the old established European family banking groups has always been gold bullion."

Read this entire commentary, "The Winds of Change: An Investment Strategy Beyond the Year 2000", reproduced at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinon by permission of AurumBank Incorporated. Clink the link, select "The Winds of Change" from the index, and return to the Round Table with your opinions that we all value.
SteveH
Mozel
A person to respect. But boy did I in fun start a rumor:

Date: Wed May 05 1999 22:10
crazytimes (@ Earl) ID#344326:
Copyright � 1999 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for pointing out Mozel's post. His ideas ( in my mind ) resonate with those of ANOTHER. It is interesting that someone on the USA Gold Forum was wondering if Mozel was ANOTHER. I don't believe that is the case at all but there are similarities. Mozel ( IMHO ) is the most sparkling and precious gem found on Kitco. His posts are brilliant and get to a profound level. There are many times I don't understand all of what he is saying but he is leading me to a place. He is also one of Kitco's most "human" of posters. I know that man ( or woman ) cries for the loss of freedom and liberty that is occuring in the USA. If there ever was a Kitco poster I wanted to meet in person and shake hands with, it is Mozel.
Goldfly
SteveH- *I* knew you were kidding......
http://www.sanford-and-son.com/sounds/sanfordtheme1.wav
Crier!! ClintH!! Click the link!

Half a meg download. Save it to your disk and run it in a loop!

GF
ET
Quack - USAGOLD

'A promise to pay was met with another promise to pay. A stock is not even a promise to pay. A stock
carries the full faith and credit of.......no one! Yet wave after wave of currency has been printed and
pumped into the stock market by investors who have come to believe it is a promise to pay. A market
which was invented essentially to distribute risk has become a proxy for money.'

Hey Quack - now this is excellent insight. This last sentence sums the situation up quite nicely. Mozel's post is right on the money. Where is the new collateral? I was in Minneapolis this morning listening to CNBC and they were actually talking about the extremely disappointing earnings forecast from Disney. Pretty much cut in half from 3 months ago. The monetary ship seems to be taking on water. Markets today seemed to confirm a loss of confidence.

ET
Aristotle
"Flight to junk?" "JUNK??!" I love it!! Some trader having a bad betting day...Whaaaaah!
Goldfly, thanks for the great music link. I'll definately have it playing while I open my precious package upon its arrival. The anticipation of the arrival of the Castle's delivery men is always the sweetest form of agony.

Tomcat, the fruits of my latest dabblings into the noble art of alchemy are a tidy assortment of Belgian gold francs and British Sovereigns. I'm jazzed up over this particular round of payday conversions (er, I mean alchemy) because I'm adding a new variety to the Aristotle Treasury (the Belgians.) MK told me they looked pretty sharp in his opinion, so I said "Ship 'em!" to a small pile, sight unseen. (Psssst...I'll let you know when they arrive whether MK is a good judge of aesthetics.) Judging from their Gold content, I imagine they will stack perfectly with my Swissies, and my French Napoleons, Angels, and Roosters. I find that I enjoy this form of idle banter over the trivial matters of Gold coins every so often. In addition to being the foundation of serious economic elements, I enjoy Gold for the lighter side as well. And while Gold priced at $285 per ounce is more 'fun' than any genuine goldheart could have ever imagined, the coming days will definitely reveal Gold at the center of the serious economic business that it ever has been. When I try my hand at Fortune Telling, a dispassionate, clinical assessment of the future reveals more reason for concern than optimism regarding the Dollar. I believe I'll stick to Alchemy.

If you don't mind me asking, what forms did you stir up with your alchemy project? Do you have a favorite?

Gold. We're ALL getting us some. ---Aristotle
Goldfly
Aristotle-13:04
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/22199810/day2.htmlYou liked that link? Try this one.... Now you'll earn your keep!

But before that... Where have I been? Busy. A wife and four kids will keep a man occupied��. And a house�.. and a job��.etc, etc.

But I've been lurking. I noticed a couple of weeks ago, you had a line in one of your posts-something like "Adopting the gold standard was one of the great unsung achievements of mankind." Now I'll point you to the link above. [I'LL WAIT NOW WHILE YOU GO READ POST 727] I had pretty much settled the issue by simply accepting the situation as it is. Aragorn and FOA both had good responses and FOA had some nuggets to chew on in some subsequent posts (even though he didn't then address it directly.) But I never was fully satisfied and that line in your post got me thinking again.

So now, with some new knights at the table, I'll posit the question again: What event(s) in human history brought gold forth as the measure of worth?

I'm not asking to be convinced of gold as the standard for money. I want to know- Whose idea was it? Or how about--- What is the earliest record of gold settling a business transaction?

ANOTHER, are you listening in? As someone accustomed to taking the long view and perhaps not subjected to the cacophony of life in the west, with it's deleterious effects on knowledge and wisdom, could you shed some light on the origins of gold as the denominator of value? Or is this lost in the dawn of time?

Like I said in post 727, perhaps this question cannot be answered. Maybe I'm chasing a shadow. But it nags at me.

Got answers?

GF
Peter Asher
Post Review
Tonight's post by Michael #5629, gave me a feeling of deja vu on two things I said way back. (#--#) When looking back through my USAG folder for them, I discovered one was in my first ever Post, #785. There was also a follow up later that day, (Oct 25) #795, and then when I found the other, in my third post, #875 -1 Nov, I saw a continuity in the threesome. So, kind of as an experiment, (and to avoid archive tasking) I removed all irrelevant prattle and put them together for a re-run as a single entity.. ( I'm glad I said "perhaps", in the first sentence). The early part of this is a bit out of date, but the rest is fundamentally maybe more pertinent now.

Last weeks five-day Dow chart of five-minute blips shows a classic bouncing ball, losing its momentum and perhaps breaking through to resume the downtrend of the season. The fundamentals behind this would appear to be (1) hedge funds et al having huge paper "losses" which would result in massive debt if realized, and (2) major institutions conferring with Greenspan and "bailing out" LTCM.

These institutions are not (always) fools. Therefore, the fix is in. A "surprise" interest rate cut creates a psychological rally which now runs out of steam as the funds square off positions, and equities resume their travel toward real value (Dow 5000??).

The true situation propelled gold to $304 before the Fed/banker pep rally got the investing public hyped up again on the impossible dream. The stampede through Dow 8600 threw water on the "safe haven" fire.

My commodity broker describes the global financial world as a giant parking garage for money, with everyone seeking the best space. He then describes the American pension funds, IRA's etc. as a huge glacier moving massive amounts of money into the garage.

So, for these investors to go for gold, there must be the expectation of profit. For that to occur, there must be a believable uptrend. So what makes gold go up? Supply and Demand of course. However, while gold is a finite resource, it is nevertheless a commodity and does not produce anything. The booming economy of the decade has obviously not created a price-raising demand. That leaves (1) the rush to a safe haven, or (2) the potential for profit from a declining currency value in the country of the gold investor. When and if these factors occur, then the uptrend that will attracts the "followers" will be upon us.

Here are some further thoughts on that "glacier." Pension funds, automatically, and IRA's etc., voluntarily, keep generating money needing a place to park, as long as the "economy" stays in gear. Now, spending stock market profits is, in effect, spending some of the investment money of the guy you sold it to. He doesn't have it any more. It's not "in the Market." What is "in the Market" is what he gets when he sells it. So, in a sense,# stock securities are a global currency like dollars, franks, marks and yen,# serving as a storage of value which can go up or down for similar reasons. As currencies are traded like commodities, the dumping of a nation's currency can cause a loss of productivity due to less sales (exports). That's sort of the tail wagging the dog, since in a healthy economic environment, the productivity would determine the value of the currency. Likewise, a recession can curtail the momentum of the investment "glacier". Or the collapse of the value of this stock market currency can create the recession. Anyway it goes down, when the mutual fund redemption stampede heads for the Market exits, a lot of what's still got wheels will be parking in Gold.

Just in time to celebrate the current holiday! The *trick* of default and devaluation was deflected by the *treat* of 95 billion dollars in IMF loans. So, Nations A, B, and C turn money over to Nations E, F, and G to pay creditors. The funds keep changing hands, circulating the global scene as ledger entries, earning interest as they go.

I remember, as a teenager, one friend saying to another to whom he owed money, "I'd rather owe it to you than do you out of it." #As long as you call a loan "a loan", it's not in default#. All debt gets "squared off" by (a) the earnings of increased production facilitated by the new capital, (2) confiscation of tax payers' money or (3) default. Therefore if, for example, the contributing nation spends less on, say, welfare, in order to hand over funds to the receiving nation, who then increases production capability, things could get better. But, if potential productive capital is depleted in order to lend it to other nations for various squanderers' activities, then things get worse. Sooner or later, original debt and the growing interest balance due will overwhelm the system.

So we have here on Planet Earth a small group of Mr. Spocks, applying Vulcan logic to the games of currency, stocks, bonds and commodities and being amazed at the antics we see, while there's a mass of Dr. McCoys out there saying, "Gold's dead, Jim."

This brings me to the subject of trading "spikes" mentioned by MK and others in recent posts. < I was considering a "spike" to be a sharp move up followed by an immediate sharp move back down>

First of all, since Gold is a single entity in its trading mechanics, it will behave much more as a thinly-traded issue than as a stock market or major stock issue. Secondly, Gold is more likely to be held as a cash potential.

Selling pressure can come from something being out of favor or it can come from a desire to convert a large quantity to cash. It is basic to trading that to sell a large quantity of stocks or commodities, one must "sell into strength." So if there is "overhead supply," waiting for strength to sell into, then a run-up in price will be met by a quantity of selling, and hence the spike.

Only when the desire to hold gold creates more demand than the desire or need to sell it, can the price move up and stay there. Copyright by Peter Asher 5 May 1999.
Peter Asher
Yo, Gandalf, you awake ????
Steve's going to go berserk when he gets up, if this trend continues for a few more hours. 289.4 & spot up .85.
SteveH
What is this guy putting in his pancakes (and who has he been ...
talking to?

Date:
Thursday, May 06, 1999 03:56 PM



By FLOYD NORRIS
THE NEW YORK TIMES

NEW YORK -- Is gold on its way to
becoming just another commodity?
The people who run the world's
financial system are doing their best
to secure that fate for the metal that
once was viewed as the only "real"
money.

The process of removing the glitter
from gold has been a gradual but
inexorable one, and is one of the
most telling counters to the argument
that national governments are less
important in this era of globalisation.
Much of the world now is quite happy
to accept the idea that a greenback
backed by US Federal Reserve Board
chairman Alan Greenspan is just as
good as one backed by gold.

Certainly gold's reputation as a store
of value has eroded. At the peak of
the gold frenzy in 1980, an ounce of
gold cost US$873, precisely that
day's level of the Dow Jones
industrial average. Now the Dow is at
11,014, about 38 times higher than
the US$287.60 ( S$485 ) price of gold.


Actually, that measurement
understates the amount by which
stocks have out-performed gold. If
you had owned stocks all those
years, you would have received
substantial dividends. If you owned a
lot of gold, you got no dividends but
did have to pay storage fees for the
stuff.

That is, in fact, how the central
bankers of the world look at gold
these days. International Monetary
Fund managing director Michel
Camdessus last week said he expects
the fund to sell gold for the first time
in two decades. The Clinton
administration is pushing for such IMF
sales to help finance a programme to
forgive debts owed by very poor
countries.

The money received from the gold
sales is to be invested in government
securities that will provide income,
and that income will pay off the
loans.

The assumption is that gold, which
does not pay interest, is a lousy
investment.

A couple of weeks ago, the Swiss
electorate voted to begin untying the
Swiss franc from its gold backing.
The Swiss central bank could begin
selling gold as early as next year.
Once again, the argument was that
selling gold was a way to find easy
money for good deeds. To those who
still view gold as the only real money,
having the Swiss defect is a bit like
discovering that Rome is embracing
Protestantism. It seems likely that
more central banks will join those
that have already begun selling gold.

The argument against retaining gold
is that its day is past. Once it was
useful as a hedge against inflation
that would hold its value when paper
currencies did not. Now financial
markets have their own sophisticated
ways to hedge against inflation.

Once gold served as protection for
investors against governments that
debased their currencies. But the
lesson people have drawn is to
believe in the dollar. Dollarisation
amounts to a sort of a gold standard
without gold. There would be a
universal money whose value was
based not on gold, but on the wisdom
of Mr Greenspan and his successors
at the Federal Reserve Board. If the
de-monetisation of gold continues,
the price is likely to keep falling as
central-bank sales more than offset
any increase in demand from jewellers
or industrial users. That could change
if it turns out that central bankers
are not the geniuses they are now
deemed to be. But for now, the world
believes in Mr Greenspan and sees
little need for gold.

SteveH
Peter
Holy cow Batman. Spot 288.00, June gold now...$289.40. VSE index up to 453.41.

Good thoughts you had there.

Gandalf the White
I am here now Peter and I can hear Steve celebrating on the east coast !
GC9M just hit 190.2 on large volume !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
Oops --- not awake yet !
THAT IS 290.2 !!!
Clint H
Goldfly # 5633
Goldfly. Thanks for the music. One man's JUNK is another man's treasure. Last laugh...last laugh...last laug...;)
JA
Bilderbergers
http://www.the-news.net/The Bilderbergers are having a meeting again and I didn't get invited.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: It's All Dollar Related
MARKET UPDATE (5/6/99): Gold continued its strong move toward the $290 barrier in
an uptrend that began about mid-session in New York yesterday, carried over to Asian
trading and then gathered pace in London. Gold seemed to be reacting to the strong
performances of the euro and yen (to a lesser degree) over the past few trading days. The
down move in the dollar began just after the IMF meeting in Washington which ended in
rancor among major G-7 partners. Gold has responded, for the most part, to what appears
to be a change in fundamentals in the currency markets -- a change which has included
unusually strong pressure on the 30-year Treasury bond. Traders, concerned that we might
be in for a period of dollar weakness, have begun to unwind various carry trade positions
that rely on a strong dollar and this in turn is touching off short covering. There was a
report on Reuters yesterday afternoon that traders were unwinding Swiss franc carry trade
positions amidst growing concern that the euro/Swiss franc rallies were for real. One
should probably assume that the rally in gold also contains an element of short-covering. A
London trader quoted in Reuters London report this morning said that gold strength had to
do with a speculative showdown taking place in New York -- "a tug of war between
different speculators." There was no further elaboration. Amidst all the action, the XAU
gold stock index rose to a 5 1/2 month high continuing a trend from the 60 level to nearly
80 yesterday -- a 30% gain in just a little over 30 days. Our Canadian friends will not be
pleased to know that the Canadian government sold more gold in April (with minimal
impact on the market) and is now down to 2.2 million ounces -- now down to a dismal 70
tons. If history is a teacher, Canadians would be well served to put themselves on the gold
standard. When a country depletes its gold reserves, the currency goes in the tank and the
currency holders become the victims of the government's misguided policies.

That's it for today. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.



Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
USAGOLD
Miscellaneous Quacking...
Christine: My post under the heading "Quack!" should have made reference to "junque" -- as in $10,000 tulip bulbs which reach maturity at 50�.

Steve: The NYTimes must have seen my market report yesterday and called in good ole Floyd to remedy the situation. It had to have been a good two days since we had a major anti-gold propaganda piece in major publication.

Peter: The problem I see with making stocks currency is what we should call "The Greenspan Dilemna". Raise interest rates and you pull the plug on the stock market. Leave them alone and you have eventually have water flowing over the top of the bucket into goods and services -- a classic price inflation. My advice to those who have made extraordinary paper profits in the stock market would be to take out 25% and convert to real money -- now while you can. If the equity inflation continues that 25% will be made up soon enough by more funny-money-stock-value. If the plug is pulled, you will have preserved some of your gains through gold ownership. If the stock market bubble continues to inflate after conversion, wait until it rises sufficiently then do the same thing all over again. Please keep these instructions with your stock portfolio file.

Junk your junque.

Off to the office. Quack.
Christine
Bildeberger meeting--for conspiracy theorists
I have posted before how there has been a rumor at Gold-Eagle forum that originated in February, l999 re: POG being ALLOWED to start rising in June, l999. The rumor has been hypothesized as having somthing to do with the introduction of euro. Since that time there have been a number of unusual coincidences relating to June, especially the announcement of G Sachs IPO for early May, not too long after the rumor came out. Now this report of the Bildeberger meeting June 2-7, 1999.
Goldfly
Greenspan Warns Of Risks To U.S. Economy
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990506/ts/economy_fed_greenspan_2.html
``I do not say we are in a new era, because I have experienced too many alleged new eras in my lifetime
that have come and gone,'' he said.

'Nuff said.

TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! An information update at USAGOLD!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlNow updated at the page "This Week in Gold" is the always excellent recount of events by George Milling-Stanley of The World Gold Council in his WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY.

Click on the link above to review the behind-the-scenes events that shaped the gold market for April 26 - April 30, 1999. And by popular demand, the archive has been retained and expanded!

Grab your torch and venture down the hall--eleventh door on your left.
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! Goldfly's words are an uncanny in light of this announcement yesterday.
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html[A repeat, in case you missed it]
Hear ye! Hear ye! All good Knights and Ladies: I direct your attention to The Gilded Opinion

"Bankers, (real ones) are always aware of the potential for a meltdown and the economic game doesn't go on without their involvement. Commerce requires that all transactions have to be paid for, which means financed. A good look at a list of bullion banks is also revealing since many of the "old" names in banking are also the "old" names in bullion dealing. However, you don't see too many "old" names on the share registers of high flying internet stocks. The "old" bankers have seen it all before and their guidelines go back several hundred years."

"Patriarchs may come and go but established banking guidelines do not change. That's the advantage of experience and an understanding of the cyclical nature of commerce and economics. "To hell with the new age theory, give me the gold any day", may well be their motto."

"The fallback position of European Central Banking and of the old established European family banking groups has always been gold bullion."

Read this entire commentary, "The Winds of Change: An Investment Strategy Beyond the Year 2000", reproduced at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinon by permission of AurumBank Incorporated. Clink the link, select "The Winds of Change" from the index, and return to the Round Table with your opinions that we all value.
TownCrier
Gold firms on inflation talk, commodities uptick
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/3a.htmlA London bullion dealer confessed to "a sneaking affection for gold following months of coolness." Could this be Redd Foxx, maybe? :-)
Peter Asher
The External Revenue Service ???
I don't scare easily, but this is a horror movie!!

include a "globilaztion summit", during
which nations which cling tenaciously to
their sovereign identities will be
denounced by its leadership.

The principal feature of Bilderberg is that
it seeks one global government, (a
structure similar to the European Union),
while counteracting nationalist sentiment is
supposedly its greatest battle. Renewed
calls for the United Nations to be able to
directly tax all people of the world is said
to be another major topic to be tabled for
discussion in Sintra.>

The 10 cent 'defense stamps' that people saved into a war bond, had a pictue of the Corcord 'Minute Man' on it. The first militia !!

In the 1700s' there was Boston and tea, Now maybe it will be Seattle , Toyotas and Wet Suits.
Goldfly
Looks like the shorts went to lunch........
http://www.kitco.com/image/nygold.gif
I'm not getting excited, tomorrow is when they'll try to slam the POG.

GF
Peter Asher
Knights to the Ramparts, Cynics to the moats
<``The difficulty in this market is expanding the participation once you have got the shorts covered. It's
a small constituency,'' the dealer added.>

Yes, but (per my 'rerun post' this morning) Gold is a thin issue. As the roar of the tornado appoaches, all heads are turning to te market exits. Gold is, as the Air Force was to Richard Gere in "Officer and a Gentleman", when he said "I got nowhere else to go"!!

GOLDFLY: don't be a party pooper. This is starting to look like the real thing. Todays power surge is happening even wiyh a retreat in Oil. What I thing is most sugnificant is Gold/T-bonds!
TownCrier
U.S. Treasuries lower, Greenspan sparks rate fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/7s.html``The market is getting creamed,'' said one trader.
CoBra(too)
Papermoney
The improving sentiment of real money is also improving my spirits as I see some of my favorite goldies heading north impressively as I reminiscened about my last trip stateside, noticing that most gas stations, while leaving their cash registers unlocked, lock their toilets. Could it be they value the paper there higher than the one with the goverment's ink on making it totally worthless as Mark Twain already remarked in his time. What's really changed? The concept of reality and economic cycles seems to catch up eventually on the new era crowd. AG's address today was as I interpret it pretty clear on overvaluation, inflation and real (vs virtual) values.
@Christine re. Bilderberger. Called upon one of the 3 ( I know in Autriche) BB's, a former senior partner at my old bank and a l.t. pres.of the industrialist under a different context, of course. Anyway, he confirmed the meeting - and changed the subject. June it is and early June at that- BTW.
We'll watch paper turn yellow (ooops golden, gilded...) together, yes.

Peter Asher
Another Jump
Spot just popped up to +2.70 & 30 yr. T-bonds just tanked
TownCrier
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990506.htmExcerpts from: The American economy in a world context
At the 35th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
May 6, 1999

...Our negative personal saving rate indicates that the wealth effect is alive and well. The latter has unquestionably been a key factor in the rise in domestic demand, which despite productivity improvements has exerted increasing pressure on labor markets. Thus, should equity markets retrench, consumer and business investment demands would, doubtless, weaken considerably.

A more distant concern, but one that cannot be readily dismissed, is the very condition that has enabled the surge in American household and business demands to help sustain global stability: our rising trade and current account deficits. There is a limit to how long and how far deficits can be sustained, since current account deficits add to net foreign claims on the United States.

It is very difficult to judge at what point debt service costs become unduly burdensome and can no longer be sustained. There is no evidence at this point that markets are disinclined to readily finance our foreign net imbalance. But the arithmetic of foreign debt accumulation and compounding interest costs does indicate somewhere in the future that, unless reversed, our growing international imbalances are apt to create significant problems for our economy...

...To return to my opening question: can we project how long the economy of the United States can act as a buffer to weakness elsewhere?

The answer: not easily. History counsels us that sharp changes in direction are rarely, if ever, anticipated. Indeed, were these changes readily apparent, presumably, businesses would adjust to that anticipation and, hence, significantly damp the cyclical tendencies in the economy.

The outlook for the American economy is particularly relevant to the realization of a full recovery of East Asia. To be sure, there are definite signs of activity bottoming out in Indonesia and Hong Kong and evidence of some gains in Thailand and Malaysia, with the most progress reported in Korea. Japan, whose economy is considerably larger than the rest of East Asia combined, excluding China, is still bedeviled by its inability to restore a vibrant banking system, though they seem to be making some progress.

But the emergence of East Asia out of its severe crisis, though real, remains fragile. The very improvements now under way could be threatening the resolve of a number of countries to adhere to the disciplined plans that have been instrumental in their recovery to date.

Brazil has managed to stem a prospective implosion that followed in the wake of its currency crisis. But there, as well as some other parts of Latin America that seem to have dodged the bullet of a Brazilian-induced contagion, the potential for a letdown in their policy discipline that has served them well, also is a concern.

But, in general, discipline is likely to hold, because the lessons of 1997 and 1998 are too recent and vivid to be soon forgotten. Hence, with a little backing and filling, the emerging nation crises of the last two years are likely to gradually dissipate and these countries should move onto a significant recovery path. The overhang of debt and difficult unresolved structural problems, however, are likely to keep a vigorous recovery at bay. But, in the end, their outlook will be influenced importantly by developments in Japan, Europe, and especially the United States.

In Europe, gains in real GDP have remained modest, though inflation appears nonexistent. Arguably, the rapidity of the introduction of cutting-edge technologies has not seemed to be as evident in Europe as in the United States. Though somewhat puzzling, this is surely temporary, unless the thrust of innovation in the United States comes to an unexpected halt, or existing rigidities in European markets unexpectedly persist in the face of growing international competition. Europe, as a consequence, is likely to remain a positive contributor to world economic stability in the years ahead.

Let me conclude with an observation I have made before: We policymakers have been engaged in a lot of on-the-job training in recent years. The remarkable American economy, whose roots are still not conclusively known, and the Asian crises that caught us by surprise, among other humbling experiences, have made policymakers particularly sensitive to how fast the world can shift beneath our feet. We need to be alert to the dramatic changes that are continuously confronting us, but recognize that neither the fundamental laws of economics, nor human nature, on which they are based, has changed, or is likely to change. This will be an especially important notion to keep in mind as we continue to grapple with the rapidly changing global economic environment and its regulatory structure, which this symposium has been convened to address.
TownCrier
FWN Closing NY Metals: Mostly Higher; Technicals Help Gold
New York-May 6-FWN--The precious metals complex ended
the day mostly higher, with gold looking stronger
technically and palladium generating follow-through after a
technical reversal on Wednesday.
June gold futures closed $2.20 firmer at $290.70.
"We've sort of got gold on a little bit of a technical
breakout here," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst
with Pegasus Econometrics. "Last week, we hinted at it with
the move through some resistance at $287.70. But we weren't
sure then whether we meant it or not.
"Now, the market looks like it really means it."

He pointed out that the pullback in the equity and bond
markets are factors normally favorable to gold.
"But so far I see this as primarily short covering in
nature and not really a function of anybody liking gold from
the long side all that much," said Evans.
While a new Commitments of Traders report is due out
Friday, the analyst reminded that the last one nearly two
weeks ago showed that the funds were heavily short. "And
because they were heavily short, that suggests there is
significant upward potential here, even on the basis of
short covering," said Evans.
Evans put initial support at previously failed
resistance of $287.70, then Tuesday's $286.20 low.
Resistance was pegged at $293, then the $300 to $302
area.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
FOCUS-West and Russia agree Kosovo strategy
TownCrier
Shares: Boom or bust
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334893.stmWall Street cynics point to the fact that US market analysts are issuing hardly any "sell" recommendations anymore, as their firms are ever closer intertwined with the companies that they are supposed to rate.
TownCrier
Euro strengthens as rates are held
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_336000/336859.stmEuro now at a three-week high, with focus now on gaining confidence on the international markets.
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
By Ross Allen, Bridge News
New York--May 6--
Gold clawed out gains, with heavy call-options activity both a symptom
and an indicator of rising bullish sentiment in the gold market. Especially
heavy open-interest is seen in $290 and $295 calls for Jun and Jly expiry.
"There's a little inflation psychology that's been creeping into the gold
market," said Bill O'Neill, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. "Stocks came under a
little bit of pressure, the bond market's under tremendous pressure and the
dollar was a little weak. The only thing that was somewhat negative was the oil
market, but that's had a pretty good run up."
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, today indicated that
inflation is a concern, with tight labor markets remaining a "critical upside
risk."
"The Greenspan talk plays into what the risks to the economy are and they
are all of higher inflation," noted William Griggs, managing director of Griggs
& Santow.
Gold is typically treated as a hedge against inflation and system risk;
however, it has lost some of its usefulness as a store-of-value as various
financial hedges have appeared in recent decades. [such as LTCM?! (sorry, couldn't resist)--T.C.]

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $290.70, up $2.20; RANGE: $291.20-288.10

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
YGM
@ Christine
Chris: Remember awhile back when I clarified my info
that started the June rumour I closed by saying there was
more on the subject?? WELL my 2 banker associates
"both" told me the Bildeberger Conference would be a
defining moment for Gold and changes I would not believe
yet would make me happy and increase my wealth. Now I
am still very much in the dark as to what they meant but I
have to feel they and MANY others know something about
these defining changes for Gold. Far too many smoking
guns for there not to be bodies buried in the shadows of
the forest.YGM.
Christine
YGM
Noticeable decrease in energy in gold-net country when Yukon gold miner not around! Geeeeeeez--what info. If you don't get a chance to post it around, I will pass it along. Chris
TownCrier
Euro/dollar falls at U.S. close after buoyant day
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/bkp.htmlThis is a thorough end-of-day wrap-up.
CoBra(too)
Busy, getting your gold?
The first syllable in my handle has just appreciated exactly 55% price(un-?) wise in the last 2 days...( no touting it's not the symbol,and lot's of co's around), considering it's a junior. Not bad, though it depreciated about 90% since 96, like most of the explorers and developers (even after proven reserve/resource of a couple of million oz's in optimal area as in this case). Q? remains- what's mineable or 'forwardable'? Who will care tomorrow, IMHO not the junior again.

MK and all thank you for your relentless endeavours pro gold. I'll better get back working at it too, but won't stop listening to the esteemed knights of the round table.
Good luck to all!

SteveH
June gold now...
$290.70 (is it time to pull out my TA of about four weeks ago yet?).

Daily gold is tracking up its upper bollinger band. Expect one to three more up days before a sider or downer. Weekly gold upper bollinger now at $298.50. Last five weeks have been up per chart I am seeing. Five weeks are the most 'up' weeks in a row since January.

At what point does gold jump $20.00? Where are the big stops at? $300? Where?

Christine
New Fairytale--How the US gets electronic gold-linked currency
Had to take a long walk after I read YGM's latest June
rumor at USAGold. This is the fairytale (scenario) that came into my head as I was walking.

They will have to let things get bad enough, scare the
world, but especially scare the US. Then they will come
out with an announcement of what they are going to do to
save us.

What will scare us:
1. Stock market decline or crash
2. Dollar falling, euro rising
3. Price of oil rising
4. Gasoline shortages in US which are being orchestrated
as we speak.

What they will propose:
1. Have to compete with euro, stop world-wide collapse
etc. So, must have new international electronic currency
similar to euro to compete with euro.
2. What countries will be included at start--my guess is
US, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and?
3. POG then to be fixed at ??? my guess is 800 to
1200--enough to keep everyone happy, but far from true
value.

Long-term implications:
1. Eventual plan to combine governments, as with euro
2. POG still articificially low, manipulated.
3. Same old game, triple speed.
Christine
What I left out of last post
I would welcome criticism or alternative perspective, woops-- I mean different fairytale.
Chicken man
Christine
A very productive walk!.....why not another virtual curriency like the EURO....? keep everbody in a state of total confusion.....
If FOA or ANOTHER would like to comment as to "Will the Brits (LBMA) rescue the EURO ?

If gold goes to $1000 ,then the Euro would have reserves backed with 45-50% gold instead of 15%....right...?
Richard, Oregon
CoBra(too) / Greenspan
Re: CoBra(too) (5/6/99; 16:29:23MDT - Msg ID:5667)
I'm embarssed to admit that I understand about as much of your post noted above as I do Mr G's talks. Could you please decrypt your post for me this one time? Richard
Aragorn III
A request for information
If one were to make inquiry into a short list of people who are generally viewed to be important and respected figures in U.S. history, what names might be expected to make the list of popular opinion?

I believe time shall reveal this line of thought to be related to gold, but I must watch it unfold.
got suggestions?
Goldfly
Peter- your 5654

Sorry buddy, I don't mean to rain on your parade. But this is war you know. The shorts are not going to go away quietly. They would love to have the line for gold all weekend long be "In the metals.... Gold was off $3 Friday...."

If we manage to close above 290 tomorrow, I'll be surprised. If gold goes up another couple of bucks, well, then maybe the tide IS changing....

GF
Goldfly
Aragorn!!

I was just about to write a post and send out an APB!!

Where have you been???

How short is this list?

GF

Goldfly
Aristotle

And where have you been today? I hope your not writing a book to try and answer my question from last night.

Oh, BTW, did you cast your lot for the Hall of Record? You didn't seem to clearly state that you were in favor. We still need 5 (I think) more votes!

GF
Goldfly
While it seems I have the floor....

June Gold unchanged at $290.70

GF
Aragorn III
Goldfly, my friend...
I have been quite well, and have enjoyed the many good thoughts to be found here, though could not find the time to contrubute words of my own. Aristotle expects "the workings of life" from me. Perhaps he'll let me slide? If not, I offer "calories" by way of an answer. Further, if it is understood that gold is the only true money for civilization having entered "civilized" times, all else shall fall into place given the time for thought to connect the pieces. These connecting threads could be called the "details" of life, and are important to be sure. If you are falling from the sky, calories and gold will not save you, but the parachute will! Yet how easily these connecting threads become entangled and are revealed as useless without the working pieces of harness and chute, as true for calories and gold. I shall leave the further exploration to our valued friend.

Goldfly, you asked--How short is this list? As I count your contribution with all others thus far, it would sadly seem to stand at zero. Perhaps I could start the list of suggestions with with a contribution-- one Thomas Jefferson.

got others?
Chicken man
Aristotle - Msg ID5549
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/Bet you thought I was going to skip out on you...?...first,may I extend my handshake to you?...better yet come on the front porch and we will have a rocking chair race while we discuss this thought...ok?
"maybe 20 years in the future the US dollar..." you, my friend would have to be called an optimist....I think-um that the US dollar in 20 years will be the same place that the mark was in 20 years later....stuffed in bureau drawers in the attic!!...father-in-law told that story when he was in WWII in Germany.....drawers and drawers FULL...! worthless...
True.... the social and economic turmoil would be awful to say the least....at that time the politicians would try "something"...they only have three choices; 1) pay off the entire debt ($22,500 per citizen....20.5 K iou's and 2K FRN )...in order to do this the taxpayers would have to cough up a chunk of change...volunteers anyone...? the politicians got us in this mess...don't think they are bright enough to get us out of it
2)renig on the debt...tell everbody the nation is sorry,but can't pay!
3)play the "try to fake em out" by issuing some sort of new "hybrid" type of debt or security.....ie..AG's 5 yr. "gold backed" loan .....the ole' beat you out of your money later than sooner....some suckers will buy that ...eh?
Forgot...#4, the tried and proven new world way...start running the printing presses FASTER!!
The greenback is caught "between a rock and a hard spot"....a golden rock perhaps..?

The markets always force the government to devalue...never the other way around...otherwise why devalue?

If we can't pay off a hunk of our national debt in the "good times"....how do we think we will pay off in the "hard times"....and hard times ALWAYS follow good times....in the last 8 yrs. or so our debt went from $3.5 trillion to $5.6 trillion....folks, THAT is a lotta money!!

So what is the fate of our bogus $....#1 ?, #2 ?,#3 ?...or good ole' #4.....the smell of fresh ink...ahhhh

Arisotle, my friend...forgot to tell you not to rock over the dog's tail....

ET
Greenspan and y2k

Was anyone watching Greenspan this morning on CNBC? After stating that 'some disruptions were inevitable', CNBC cut away to their talking heads to reassure that all is well. Yourdon's forum had an interesting discussion of this new 'phenomenon' and I've clipped without permission someone's comments.

'Blue, There is no doubt that they cut away. However, I don't attach much to that that
hasn't been fully discussed many times on this forum.

To me, the significant thing is that Greenspan unequivocally said that some disruptions
are inevitable. Like de Jager, Greenspan offered no concrete examples of industries
achievement of compliance. He simply said billions of dollars have been spent.
Hauntingly similar to de Jager's illogical line of reassurance.

Frankly, he waffled on the money in the bank issue. He clearly said that keeping your
money in the bank would be "safest". He explained that if you took it out it would be
subject to being stolen.

Safest does not mean safe. If you or I said it, it might. Greenspan chooses his words
the way Monet chose colors. Carefully.

Greenspan today was a scary as I've heard. I presume that the cut away by CNBC
simply cut out more talk minimizing the perception of risk. So no harm done.

In my opinion, Greenspan is still sounding the alarm.'

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 06, 1999.

I think this guy is right. Greenspan understands the y2k problem and has to be sweatin' it. I have a newfound respect for old Al. I also think he is still sounding the alarm.

ET
Richard, Oregon
Golden Age Of . . . . . . . GOLD!
Just my thoughts, of late, this evening. . . . After reading many a thought and idea for several months . . . . It seems to me that I may be living in the Golden Age Of GOLD. Gold has been down to nineteen year low(s) and is poised for release in the very near future. Prices today, most likely, will not be seen for at least another twenty years (if ever). What a time to be living. What a time to be aware of what is really happing in the financial world. What a great place to be, a table of round where ideas and thoughts are exchanged freely by many a gifted knight and lady. Enjoy this Golden Age with me, will you!
Goldfly
Aragorn's List
Well how about:

George Washington
Ben Franklin
Sam Adams (Say, are these names familiar for some other reason?)
Abe Lincoln
Alvin York (Oops, out of the money on that one....)

Ok, so far all these people either got us into, through, or helped us win, a war. That can't be what you're driving at though...

How about someone more of a thinker?

Thomas Edison

You may wish you had given some parameters here....

Daniel Boone
Lewis and Clark

Let's see.... Risk takers? Innovators? Adventurers? People who carried REAL money? No? What then?

Got A's? (In history?)

GF
Aragorn III
Continuing with Goldfly, and any others with interest
I hope that I have not unduly influenced you with my suggestion of Thomas Jefferson, but I thought he would surely find the way onto the popular lists. If this did not color your thinking, then the larger fraction on your list could be generalized as American revolutionaries, or maybe Founding Fathers is the preferred term?
This confirms my own suspicion. We might easily add the authors of The Federalist papers James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay to build popular support for the draft Constitution. Other names could be cited for their role in this important time.

If we are agreed that these men as a class would make the consensus list of important and respected figures in U.S. history, my next question is--Is their position in public opinion merited, or a product of propaganda? I don't believe this to be a "trick" question.

got golden opinions?
Gandalf the White
Aragorn III's quandary
Looking into my Crystal Ball and seeing where you are going with this --- I truly feel that the founding fathers did the best job of creating checks and balances to allow the most flexibility and freedoms that were possible. To have done this in such a short timeframe with need for so much give and take type negotions and have the resultant effort last for over 200 years is like the greatest thing mankind has yet accomplished ! I would also like to add Henry Ford to the list as his thoughts allowed the industry production methods to be revelutionized and generated the concepts of mass production which is the basis of increasing the welfare and wealth of humanity. OK A3, your turn !
<;-)
Aragorn III
Gandalf, it is good to have your wisdom in this discussion
If I may take liberty to summarize your words..."I truly feel that the founding fathers did the best job ... checks and balances ... most flexibility and freedoms ... possible. To have done this in such a short timeframe ... and have the resultant effort last for over 200 years is like the greatest thing mankind has yet accomplished ! " I will take this to mean a vote for the position that respect is due these gentlemen on the merits of their actions. This also confirms my suspicion.

While it is difficult to bracket a period in which the events within may be examined with independence from the events without, I might suggest 1764 - 1788 (from Sugar and Stamp Acts to majority ratification of the draft Constitution). Twenty-five years is indeed a brief time for these few men to bring about such a bold change to the world, is it not? The personal perspective of time and geography may color the opinion, but we would expect the general opinion to hold this as a positve development for the world. A product of truth or propaganda? Let us let others weigh in on this before we take these thoughts further.

Shall we now divert or attention to the exciting news of the day? Perhaps you might like to follow my lead in gathering together your pennies for the smart move...as the British Treasury is even now preparing to auction more than half their 715 tonnes gold in a restructuring of reserves to better fit with their EMU neighbors. A following of the Swiss lead, perhaps? Indeed. As soon as July the first of regular auctions will begin. Can you bid on 400 ounce bars? At that size, they will not sell cheap even at today's prices, but I assure you, they will not sell at today's prices! Let us use the "trader's confusion" to acquire the smaller gold crumbs at TODAY'S prices. In time, it will not matter that the gold you hold is not in the form of 400 ounce bars of London Good Delivery!

got grand plans?
SteveH
CSPAN, but first a word from our sponsor, June gold...
Now $286.50.

I watched AG's speech on CSPAN. No cutaways there. Body language and reading between lines is how to listen to AG. At the end of his formal presentation, he alluded to LTCM, I believe. He talked about OJT (on the job training)and how policy makers were learning as they were going in this world economy. He talked about "nobody expected" the speed or extent of the international Russian default although he called it something else. He talked about the fragility of the International monetary system in terms of he sees recovery but it is largely dependent upon Europe, Japan, and most especially the US. He alluded to US Equities and how they support the consumer and spending today. He discussed labor as a key to low inflation. First all questions asked of Mr. G. were written and gone through by the moderator. He mentioned dollarization and Euroization but said it was called dollarization because it was easier to say it. He referred to dollarization as the observation that broadly based economic systems seemed to weather the winds of change better than single-country currencies. Eventhough he couldn't support it then with figures he felt it to be true. He used the example of Euro countries preparing for the introduction of the Euro and how well they seemed to do in changin over from a single-nations currency to a more broadly-based multi-country currency. He said he would never recommend a one-currency or world currency. He said competition was healthy. So dollarization, Euroization, Yenization were trends to absorb economic change better.



When the Y2K question was asked, he said he had written programs and because of computers then one reduced code to as few lines of code possible. He admitted it was a mistake to build on code that should have only lasted two years, not thirty. He said that the true measure of cost was in the amount of money that has gone into fixing Y2K problems. He said that even if one line of code in a thousand didn't work, the program wouldn't work and in the same sentence said that he wasn't worried about the US (as much). He alluded that other countries banks weren't ready perhaps. He did say there would be disruptions but that it wouldn't be from the code not working so much but from the perception of people reacting to Y2K. He said the safest place for peoples' money is in the bank. He was most charming but I thought that he had two actual brain pauses where he wasn't sure how to proceed during that question. I remember thinking about how the speech I had posted on Y2K and what he said were similar: it isn't the event but the perception of the event.

I hope that was a joke, btw, about UK selling 700 plus tons of gold. I guess I will find out as I spend a few minutes browsing around the net. Not funny but then it fits the pattern of holding gold back by negative news as it tries to go over 300. Manipulation of the highest order I would say but perhaps it is called something different when countries do it versus companies or people.

SteveH
Clarification
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990506.htmThe comment about UK selling gold was NOT something AG said. I was referring to Aragorn's comments. Also, AG didn't mention LTCM but I believe he alluded to it. Here is what he said, you tell me...."...The remarkable American economy, whose roots are still not conclusively known, and the Asian crises that caught us by surprise, among other humbling experiences, have made policymakers particularly sensitive to how fast the world can shift beneath our feet...." LTCM=humbling experience. Now that is reading between the lines. But so you too can read between the lines I have posted the URL. Must reading, AG's speech. Says a lot, in ways we have grown used to having had it said.
SteveH
Time to write Congress, again.
UK Treasury to sell 415 tonnes of gold over medium term

LONDON ( AFX ) - The UK Treasury said it is to sell 415 tonnes of gold in the medium term, reducing its gold holdings contained within the official reserve to around 300 tonnes from the present level of 715 tonnes.

It intends to sell 125 tonnes of gold, 3 pct of total reserves, during 1999/2000, with the Bank of England conducting five auctions on the Treasury's behalf. It said auctions are to be held every other month starting on July 6.

The Treasury envisages selling similar quantities of gold in subsequent financial years.

The Treasury said its decision to reduce the proportion of its reserve holdings held in gold was taken in order to achieve "a better balance in the portfolio by increasing the proportion held in currency".

It said the proceeds from the gold sales will be invested in foreign currency assets, with reserves maintained at present levels.

A Treasury spokesman said that, following the sales, the UK's holdings of gold would be consistent with entry into EMU, noting that had the UK entered EMU in the first wave it would have needed to have deposited 140 tonnes with the European Central Bank.

-end-

Collusion pure and simple. Must have been getting close to hittig some stops, I see.

June gold now...$285.40.

Forget pulling out the prediction, give it a few more weeks. Although, I smell a good chess game in progress.

More, Auction. Now that is different as it conotes anyone can buy. Yeah, like I can buy a 400 oz gold bar. How 'bout 2lbs please. Can you slice it off the back end. Thanks.
T. Remital
Keep your head!!!
Before everybody becomes negative on todays UK statement, take a good look at the facts.
We have heard that some headge funds are short up to 1000 tons of gold..with the report
of sales by the UK of 300 tons, dosn't help all that much except to push the pog down at
a time when gold was just starting to rise. The shorts will be in the market today trying to
aquire all they can get from sellers that are dumping on the news..My feeling is that the
shorts are going have a dificult time because the whole world now will be aware of the
manipulation taking place..Anybody selling today, on this news, may find it hard to replace
their position when the path of least resistance is UP...
SteveH
This jist in...
from BBC News...

Britain is to sell off a chunk of its gold reserves because what was once one of the world's most precious commodities is losing its value.
The UK is selling around 400 tonnes of gold, 3% of its stock, as it 'restructures' its reserves.

The gold price slumped on Friday, as the market reacted to the news, falling by $3 to $285.85/$286.25 a troy ounce.

Gold was once one of the most valuable assets in the world but as more and more of the shiny metal swills around its value drops.

Gold's falling standard



How low will gold prices go?
Critically, for banks it now gives relatively poor returns and several have been selling off their reserves, including the Australians, Belgians, Dutch and even the Swiss.

The significance of Switzerland is that its 2,600 tonnes of gold are the third-biggest reserve of holdings in the world, after the US and the eurozone area.

Over the last 20 years bonds and shares have given better returns and many banks and finance institutions are now replacing gold with better yielding investments.

The Swiss reckon the cost of lost interest in holding gold rather than US Treasury bonds is equivalent to around $400 a year per household.

Tarnished reputation

Over recent decades gold has been a poor investment.

It has failed to keep pace with inflation, has underperformed shares and bonds and has been expensive to store.

Banks, like everyone else, are under pressure to improve the returns on their reserves.

The European Central Bank has decided to hold only 15% of its reserves in gold, well below the 30% average of most of the countries in the eurozone.

Gold prices in London prices fell by more than $3 as the market digested news of the UK Treasury's move to reduce its reserves of 715 tonnes.

Gold prices fell to $285.85/$286.25 a troy ounce from $288.85/$289.25, which compared with Thursday's close in New York of $289.10/$289.60.




Gold for June is $284.30, but appears to be bottoming and may now go up. Strength of this up leg will be telling in NY. And NY is the big question, yipes.
SteveH
This is nothing...
Not to worry. Make that 3lbs please (clubmembers only)

May 7, 1999
Dow Jones Newswires
U.K. Treasury To Sell 125 Tons Of Gold This Financial Year
Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON -- The U.K. Treasury said Friday it plans to sell 125 tons of gold, or 3% of its total reserves, during the current financial year to March 2000. Over the medium term, the Treasury plans to reduce its gold holdings to around 300 tons from 715 tons now. The Treasury said the Bank of England will hold five auctions in this financial year every other month beginning in July. It will replace the gold it sells from its reserves with foreign currency assets.
( Corrected 0835GMT )
A Treasury spokesman said the planned gold sales will be "measured and phased." The government's decision, he said, is based on its own view of the right balance for its reserves.
He said, however, that the U.K. move does follow similar decisions by other governments around the world.

The spokesman said the European Central Bank has a lower proportion of gold in its reserves, although he added that the British sale is not related to a possible decision to take the sterling into economic and monetary union.

If the U.K. did join the single currency, it would have to deposit some 140 tons of gold with the ECB, the spokesman said.

Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted
bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England.

The U.K.'s reserves currently total some $37 billion, including $6.5 billion in gold. But the government's foreign currency liabilities total $22 billion, so gold reserves therefore make up almost half the unhedged or "net" reserves, the Treasury said.

The initial 125 tons to be sold compares with annual mining output of around 2,500 tons, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services.

World holdings of gold total around 100,000 tons, according to the International Monetary Fund, with around 60,000 tons of this amount held in private hands.

One metric ton of gold equals just over 32,150 troy ounces. Thus, 125 tons is around four million ounces. Midmorning in London, spot gold was trading at $284.00, down from $289.65 per troy ounce at the close Thursday.
The Invisible Hand
British sales

How come the article which was mentioned yesterday by JA in post 5644 (http://www.the-news.net) says that Tony Blair will attend the Bilderberger meeting?
ss of nep
Bilderberger
Blair has been there previously.

Seems he is fascist, like(s) Clinton

Scary.
NORTH OF 49
PM Blair
What ever Prime Minister Blair is, he has been well compensated for it. He presently has a C$1,000,000,000 "cottage" under construction in Cranbrook, British(imagine that) Columbia.

No49
Aragorn III
"What does it mean?" asked the voice on the phone, seeking reassurance
It might be helpful to share my brief answer to that question. The Round Table can see this view through enlightened eyes, while the words of traders you read in news reports are of no insight, for their understanding of gold is only from 9:00 to 5:00, so to speak.

Take comfort in this, and take this for a sign: this gold will move under special arrangements. Ask yourself, with your keen knowledge of gold--Why do they sell under auction when there already exists efficient and worldwide around-the-clock markets for the trading of gold?

Ask this good question also--Does one generally make *special* arrangements to ensure the worst possible outcome?

Stride with confidence into this "new world". Two hundred years ago show us that "new arrangements" are not always a bad thing, arranged by those with sinister intents.

got peace?
ss of nep
The FIX is in
The wiggle occurred on the 9-th day as indicated
in the msg I posted last Friday.

The XAU chart appears to show a GAP as a result
of yesterdays action, now is that a break-away Gap
or is it an Exhaustion Gap.

I expect all gold related stocks to lose about 9%
today as a result of the drop in the London FIX.

Why do THEY call it the FIX ???????

Well anyway The FIX is in !!!!!!????????

And it would appear to me that the people from
Goldman-Sachs, that have recently received a few
Billion US$ are going to be allowed to trade it in
on the Gold delivered directly from the population
of the UK, via LBMA ( Rothschilds ).

Now, I think I read yesterday in the Gilded opinion
that the OLD world bankers will always choose the
GOLD.
Well I think it is more than that, I think they will
steal ALL of the gold.
Also, as I have said before the US market(stock)
will be HELD up until ALL the players that THEY
want OUT have the time to convert to GOLD, at
nice low prices, on the way out.
Then the US markets will be allowed to tank.

It is cheap, I bought some more yesterday,
I will not sell it even if it goes to $US 10.00
canamami
Gold Manipulation - Popular Frustration
I found this on a stock investment Board. There's a lot of anger out there:

The absolute bottom line is this: How can one continue to hold gold stocks with this degree of manipulation. I started investing to "make some money", not to make a statement or be part of a struggle to save the yellow metal. It's quite clear the CB's have sufficient reserves to keep gold under wraps for quite some time. Unless the governments can be made to back off, gold is just a loser for the foreseeable future. I'm just so incensed I can barely write this down. These anti-gold as*hol*s have literally f*c*ed my life to a great degree, with their antics. xxx could be a great stock if gold were allowed to move. No one can doubt now there is a war against gold. Investors in gold shares are now against the Western governments. You know, countries have gone to war, and people have overthrown governments and killed their leaders for less hostile actions than those which have been directed against gold investors lately. It's outrageous, it's immoral and it cries out to Heaven for retribution.

Excuse me if I sound a little nuts, but I'm thoroughly wild right now. I'm ready to puke, learning this kind of nonsense first thing in the morning.
TownCrier
Seems I've been scooped on the big story. How 'bout this? "Bank of England's Governor To Retire"
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990507/britain_ba_1.htmlHaving worked there since college, maybe selling the gold took the last bit of fun out of his job? Naaaaaaah.
FOA
BOE gold sale!!
ALL:
A quick post, then I must go.
The decision by the UK Treasury to sell gold, points strongly towards the severe political pressures upon the IMF / Dollar Reserve factions! The "dollar reserve system" is truly in trouble. With the IMF gold sales in doubt, or delayed. And the EURO / BIS factions blocking any new gold. New gold cannot be found to maintain the backing of collateral for existing paper shorts and the massive liquidity they provide. The UK is directly in the middle of this as the LBMA would all but "disappear" if world dollar liquidity were to shrink from a higher gold price!

Notice what the Bank Of England said: "It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England." Truly, the IMF / Dollar faction alliance is
failing, with each now about to support it's own entities! The BOE will most definitely back the LBMA first and foremost with fresh collateral!

The beginning of this new bull market in gold will be mired with "extreme" volatility! We never expected anything different. With the ending of the largest circulating reserve currency system about to ensue, nothing less than an investment in "actual gold bullion" will work. For some time, Another (and myself) have pointed out that no one will be able to play this change using any form of leverage!!! Major gold buyers and investors know this, especially oil producers and holders of "paper gold backed by the Euro CBs"! . Today's action, will be nothing compared to the swings to come, as these moves will be "political" attacks of a timed nature. There purpose is "NOT" to destroy private "paper gold" investors", rather "to respond to an ongoing currency crisis"!

This is perhaps the "Third" reason for not holding gold stocks (see my first two in FOA (5/1/99; 21:04:42MDT - Msg ID:5465)). Each 20% gain in the XAU will be given back with the swings in the physical market. Again, during a currency crisis, hold currency, but, in a gold currency crisis, hold gold!
I will have much more on this dynamic market in a day or so! FOA
Aristotle
Goooooooood Morning, Viet Nam!!
Or should I say 'mourning'? Tough business, waking up to this! I'm gonna have to take some time to absorb it all, but this is my initial perspective...Thank God I'm hanging my hat on the metal and not on mining stocks. This is the kinda thing that could drive a company into the ground, and I feel for the share holders (yeah, yeah, ME too, but I've mentally written off my shares as tuition in the school of hard knocks.)
Further, although thoughts of manipulation fill the air, this isn't just idle talk to spook the market, these boys came right out WHAMMO! with an honest to God sale. And in an auction format at that! We all know what happened during the last round of official auctions...
"POW! To the moon, Alice!" (in my best Ralph Cramden impersonation)
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Report: Britain Stumbles
MARKET ANALYSIS (5/7/99): The gold market came under attack from the British last
night in a surprise pre-dawn announcement(U.S. time) that it intended to sell off 415 tons
of gold "in the medium term" -- over half of its 715 ton reserve. The gold is scheduled to be
sold at auction by the Bank of England. The first tranche will total 125 tons to be sold over
a ten-twelve month period beginning July 6. We have reported on the odd behavior of the
British toward gold on several occasions in this report over the past few months. That odd
behavior came to a head last night.

The British auctions come after at least two years of constant pressure from various bullion
banks operating primarily in London on the central banks of continental Europe and the
third world to sell their gold. When the European Union and European Central Bank some
six or more months ago closed the door to gold sales, the British Chancellor of the
Exchequer, Gordon Brown, began an extraordinary and vigorous campaign to persuade the
International Monetary Fund to sell a portion of its gold holdings. He enlisted the public
support of both the Canadian and U.S. administrations though stiff opposition surfaced in
the U.S. Congress. When those efforts were stymied by other G-7 members at the recent
meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, the British resorted to selling
their own reserves per the announcement last night.

This comes at a strange time with gold languishing below $300. We have said time and
again that nations do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to.
Beyond concerns that should be raised in the British parliament, one wonders what is really
behind this sale. Clearly their stated intention to change the configuration of their reserves is
not the real reason. If that were the case, they would have waited for a more propitious time
-- not when the market was trying to go over the key $300 figure. Why kill a rally. Let the
rally gather steam and then sell. There is another, more telling, aspect to this sale that we do
not know about though I am sure various gold analysts will begin offering opinions as early
as this morning.

There have been published rumors that the British owe the Russians a large amount of gold
on metal being stored at the Bank of England from the days of the Romanovs -- gold the
Russians have publicly proclaimed that they want back. There could also be concerns that
gold loans have gone sour and British financial concerns are on the hook. Then there's the
gold carry trade -- a lending scheme that could go suddenly sour if the metal were to start
moving in a northerly direction. Perhaps a British bank(s) is involved in a counter-party
guarantee that must be paid. This is all speculation but clearly this announcement has more
to do with driving the price down for some reason that has not surfaced....yet.

Though the market has already sold off sharply, I wonder if this downside will hold in
view of the growing inflationary bias in the world economy, problems in the U.S.
Treasuries' market and the fact that there are so many unanswered questions surrounding
this auction/sale. As Placer Dome CEO John Willson said this morning gold prices today
are intimately tied to the US dollar and would get a boost if the dollar were to slip from
today's highs on signs of possible weakness in the US' roaring economy. The British
pound is taking a major hit this morning and my guess is that traders already understand
that something odd is going on in the United Kingdom that bears careful watching. The
pound is not the first currency to suffer post-gold-sale-announcement traumatic syndrome.

Beyond the political ramifications of these sales, twelve tons of gold per month is not going
to break this market. If anything the buyers will line up to take advantage of the
opportunity. Nor are concerns about other countries sales well grounded, the few that are in
a position to sell do not have enough gold to cause any major problems and it appears at the
outset that the British decided on these sales because they couldn't obtain the gold needed
from other sources.

All of this will be carefully weighed in the balance.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
USAGOLD
FOA....
I posted my report before reading your post. I wondered when I first got the news if this was to be a "public" or "private" auction. The fact that it will be kept "private" goes a long ways toward offering a good "reason" for these sales. I wonder how bad their exposure really is. (???) There is the hint of desperation in this British gold auction. Anybody letting gold go in this gambit is a fool! That's exactly what they want.
TownCrier
Most IMM currencies lower early after US jobs data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/p1.htmlCurrencies and gold...up, down, and all around.
FOA
Today USAGOLD report!
Good Day MIchael,
Nice report about today's market. Bullion is back to where I started adding to my position from a week or so ago. As stated, I will be buying over several weeks. This "suprise" is welcome and buying by many physical entities is ongoing! Gold may, indeed rebound before the close. We will watch this crisis develope! FOA
The Invisible Hand
Belgian Bankers' gold

Roland Leuschel is the German honorary director of Belgium's Bank Brussels Lambert (BBL) (which belongs to Belgium's top three banks - I should write "belonged" because the top three has, since Leuschel retired, merged with other (foreign) banks). He has a widely-read monthly column in Belgium's De Financieel Economische Tijd newspaper.

The last time he mentioned gold was on November 21, 1998. After having explained that banks were short on gold and were therefore issuing negative messages as to the prospects of gold, the column advised its readers to have "some" (a little/een beetje) gold in their portfolio.

On April 30, 1999, Leuschel advised his readers to have 2 or 3 percent of gold in portfolio. He did however not explain why.

I am starting to understand: I said he's "honorary" director of the BBL. Where did he retire? In Portugal, Sir. And what was again the country where the Bilderberger meeting was planned?

The IVH

TownCrier
ANALYSIS-Gold stripped of rank in reserves policy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/qo.htmlThis report is both remarkable, and quite laughable all at once. The "objective" reporter somehow manages to discuss each and every point that comprises the gold shorters' litany.
TownCrier
A correction to prior news
The last link provided is to a gold sale story, but not the one described in the commentary. It appears its link has been changed or the story pulled for being too negative? I'll keep searching for the original version.
Gandalf the White
Please continue Sir Aragorn III
The present age of leaders having orchestration from the powers that placed them in the power positions, and not providing the leadership for the good of the people and the country which they lead, is the uttmost in the use of the art of propaganda. The timing of your question is PERFECT! As the announcement of the sale to a few select groups of the Brittish CB Gold reserves, is propaganda of the worst nature. Thanks to FOA for shinning the light of TRUTH on the sham and allowing the Goldhearts to take advantage of this manna from heaven. Cheap Gold is once again available! As one of the wise ones says, GET YOU SOME ! while the getting is good. Educate on Aragorn III.
<;-)
CoBra(too)
Gold auctions of the official sector .....
...have lastly been contrary indicators for some time now. Huge CB sales at the fixed $35/oz during the latest gold standard, was followed, same as the 70's auctions (at about $200/oz)by huge price appreciation of the POG. Anyway, I agree totally with all posters commenting on todays, maybe last bargain price in POG before a thundering upcycle sets in.
The global casino capitalism is in dire straights and desperately clutching at any straw to keep the paper bubble from bursting. The stress of the system becomes palpable and the guardians are rapidly running out of allies, where past favors can be called upon. While the IMF and the Swiss CB, being major holders of gold, the BoE gold hoard is just a drop in the bucket! Smells like last bullet drama and a panicky move to undermine sentiment as the battle is finally lost.

@ SteveH... Sorry for being cryptic - Co stands for Coral Gold, a Cdn. Junior (CLH.VSE)appreciating from C$0.80 to 1.21 in past two days. The co has been up to 6,40 (96) due to potential takeover. It has about 2 million drill indicated ounces resource, some proven reserve to date and now due to a recent option agreement with PDG, a 30% free carried interest to production on its property next to Cortez (Pipeline) in Nevada. Drilling is ongoing and results should be stated today or early next week. Sorry again,try to think in your lingo, but still my typing stays way behind and is loosing some.

This (European) morning, Bill Murphy's (Cafe, GATA) gold commentary has forewarned me that something may hit the gold markets again. Quote:" We know "the quad" are all lining up to try and stifle a decent gold move to the upside, one more time. Deutsche Bank, Chase, UBS and GS were all selling... Especially aggressive DB...We got word late (yesterday)afternoon that their (DB) bullion desk is calling their clients saying the gold market is stopping at $290.
The Stranger
BOE
Michael....Thanks for your market report this morning which is as illuminating as it is timely. Obviously, yesterday's break above 6.75% resistance, by the U.S. long bond, threatened a short covering panic in the gold market and forced the BOE's hand. Your report raises revealing questions:

1.Why would Britain have pre-emptively softened gold prices by calling for IMF sales so soon before their own announcement? Why not, indeed, unless, as you say, "they do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to."
2.And why show their hand by announcing sales years into the future, unless the purpose is to encourage others to sell, thereby maximizing the very market reaction they are seeking?

Fortunately, for us bugs, the bond market, so far at least, is not taking the bait. If yields do not swoon in the wake of the BOE announcement (and this morning's favorable U.S. wage report, by the way), the pressure should be on the carry traders as never before. We shall see.

I understand the investment gold universe to be approximately 100,000 tonnes in size. Perhaps another 10,000 tonnes are short. BOE is TALKING of selling 125 tonnes this year, more later. This may be enough to buy some time, but surely, no serious gold trader will see this as adequate to neutralize the forces of supply and demand in so large a market.

For numerous reasons, this move by the BOE should not be seen as "central bank" contagious. It does, however, get me to wondering. What if the U.S. were to make a similar announcement? Any thoughts?
USAGOLD
Stranger...
The traders I know are not taking the BOE numbers seriously. They are looking to see, however, if any of the small central banks will take the bait. As I said, this has the scent of desperation. Strong buying being reported at the market-maker level today. Rumors of the U.S. Mint raising premiums in response to the Canadian move. Fairly strong buying at CPM/USAGOLD. Watching to see if hedge funds are going to pile on British announcement. So far they're on the sidelines. George Milling Stanley preparing industry response; may be on CNBC yet today. Anglo and Gold Fields -- both with British ownership -- strongly condemn BOE.
JA
Aragorn III
In regard to your post # 5673

I would have to nominate the framers of our constitution.

"The framers of our Constitution knew� history� they were trained and experienced in the Common Law. They remembered the Barons and King John at Runnymede. They were thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle that the true sovereignty rested in the people."

J. Reuben Clark, Jr.

I tend to believe as declared by others the founders of the American Republic to be "the best spirits the God of heaven could find on the face of the earth. They were great and noble spirits.


In my mind Gold, Sovereignty and freedom are all related
JA
Charlton Heston's speech to the NRA
JA
North of 49
If the number of zero's in your post concerning Blair is correct, maybe the Bank of England is just selling gold to raise cash to pay their prime minister?

The Stranger
Correction to my message #5710
The yield barrier broken by the long bond yesterday was 5.75% (not 6.75%).
TownCrier
WGC damns "irony" of UK gold sales and debt policy
TownCrier
Goldman Sachs doing their part to pile on negative sentiment
Alert: Goldman Sachs Says Cuts Gold Sector to Market Underweight From Market Weight
Alert: Goldman Cuts Barrick , Newmont to Market Perform From Outperform
Alert: Goldman Cuts Placer, Ashanti , Normandy to Market Perform From Outperform
Alert: Goldman Cuts Homestake , Lihir, Tvx to Underperform From Perform
NORTH OF 49
J A -- Well, ya win some, ya lose some
That's what happens when you're in a big hurry to get back to see what the charts are are disclosing. There are, indeed, about three too many "0"'s in that figure. None the less, and even in Canadian bucks, one million smackers amounts to pretty fancy digs in these parts!!
I know the contractor, and he's ecstatic, to say the least!!
I'll try to do a little better job of proof reading next time I post.


No49
goldnbones
BOE
I have been following the discussions posted on this website for a couple of months now, and I would like to thank you all for your thought provoking writings.

The suspicous pattern of a rising(!!!!) gold price followed by announcements of gold sales from official sources seems to be coming to a head with last night's announcement from the Bank of England.

When I read the news and then read all the posts here and at Kitco, I was reminded of an article I read in late 1997 or early 1998, possibly in the London Times or Sunday Times. I think the main gist of the article was that since the Bank of England had leased out large quantities of gold, and that since a significant portion of this gold had subsequently been sold to the ordinary public in the form of jewellery and maybe coinage (can one mint leased gold into coins? I guess one can if the mint doesn't know it is buying leased gold), the gold could never come back to the Bank of England. - Town Crier, can you assist here? I searched the net for quite some time today, but to no avail.

If things come to the situation where the BOE wants the gold back for whatever reason where would it get it from? Could this be one of the reasons why the British have been trying so hard to get some gold sales going?

And eventually, since the BOE could not purchase enough gold, and the people the BOE leased the gold to cannot replace the gold, the BOE then says to them, well, ok, then I guess you bought it!

And the BOE auctions them the gold. But what they don't tell you is that they actually delivered it a long, long time ago!
USAGOLD
Protest Purchases
I have just taken the third order today from a gold buyer who says he is buying gold as a protest to the announcement of the Bank of England. I wonder how much of this is going on nationally as the day progresses? This client (and lurker at this site) thought I should spread the word, so I post this at his request.
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Sharply Lower After U.K. Plans Sales
New York-May 7-FWN--Right when gold had pulled itself
up off the mat after a recent knockdown by a Swiss
referendum and talk of International Monetary Fund (IMF)
sales, the yellow metal was floored again today. This time
the blow came from the United Kingdom.
Officials with the U.K. Treasury triggered a massive
sell-off in gold futures overnight when they announced plans
to sell more than half of their gold reserves.

June gold futures had fallen as far as $281.60 late
last month, after comments from a number of global finance
leaders calling for up to 10 million ounces of IMF gold to
be sold to provide debt relief to poor countries, and in the
aftermath of a Swiss referendum that was a step forward in
the government's plan to sell some of its reserves.
But in the last couple of weeks, gold had been
rallying, with the June futures getting as high as $291.20
on Thursday. The cash market was poised to break through the
$290 area, and many suspected this might trigger a further
short-covering rally, related Dave Meger, metals analyst
with Alaron Trading.

But then early today, the UK Treasury today announced plans to
restructure its reserve holdings, which will involve
reducing its gold holdings to 300 tonnes from 715 over themedium term.
The first stage will be the sale of 125 tonnes of gold
during 1999/2000, 3% of total reserves, in 5 separate
auctions conducted by the Bank of England. The first auction
will be held Jly 6, and the others are expected to be held
every other calendar month.

The Treasury said the restructuring was designed to
achieve a better balance in the reserves portfolio by
increasing the proportion held in currency assets. The
proceeds from the sales will be held in foreign currency
assets and retained in the reserves.
The UK currently holds 715 tonnes of gold in its
reserves, worth around US $6.5 billion.

A Treasury official said the restructuring would bring
the UK into line with the way other national governments
structured their reserves and would make it more consistent
with EMU member states. Each of the 5 auctions to be held this financial year
will be of around 25 tonnes. The gold will take the form of
London Good Delivery bars, each weighing about 400 fine troy
ounces and held at the Bank of England. To encourage the
widest possible interest the bank will consider bids for
a minimum of 400 ounces.

"Off of this, we saw significant--if that's a strong
enough word--breaks in the gold market," said Meger.
June gold gave back the $10 or so it had gained during
the last couple of weeks, bottoming out today at a low of
$280.30. The market did trim its losses some, finishing with
a decline of $7 at $283.70.
A key question for market participants now is the
future direction of the metal.

Meger pointed out that in addition to worries about
potential IMF and Swiss sales, there have been ongoing
Canadian sales, all of which have been factored into prices.
It appears there is a trend in which monetary authorities
are putting less emphasis on gold holdings.
"That is a scary idea for any type of bull in the
market, or producer, on the idea that if this is going to be
the case, you're going to be looking at more supply," said
Meger.
But if there is not more significant follow-through
selling in the next week to one and one-half weeks, said
Meger, the market may be able to right itself.

"We have been throwing bearish news at the market, it
seems, every other day. It has been handling this news quite
well. So if we can get through this one last punch, I thinkwe can do just fine."
Later, he added, "We had been pushing up close to that
$290 level in the cash market and were seemingly poised to
move through that level. I think the idea was if we could
punch through that, it appeared we were going to have the
potential to see a fair amount of short covering.
"We were so close, and then we had this news. So we're
right back where we started (a couple of weeks ago)."

Meger put support for June gold at today's $280.30 low,
then $277 to $278, then $275. Resistance was pegged at $287
to $288, then $290 and $293.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Skraeling
There'll always be an England...?
Maybe the no good sassenachs are trying to teach the Scots a lesson for electing so many SNP members to their miniparliament and preventing red tony's party from getting a clear majority---sort of a slash and burn approach to the currency. Of course, that makes no sense, but nothing does in these MANIPULATED times of ours. Central bank gold sales are the fiscal equivalent of grinding the seed corn for flour--it's suicidal--unless, of course, one's goal is the emasculation of the nation state...
TownCrier
Treasury says U.S. not planning to sell gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/5s.htmlTreasury spokesman allays fears. (check for an article Update soon at this link)
TownCrier
The end-of-week tea leaves for currencies
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/5o.htmlMost IMM currency futures end lower, euro near day's low
TownCrier
Gold shares plunge on U.K. sale, Getchell, Ashanti hit on worst day in 12 years
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/sector.htx?source=blq/yhooA tougher than usual day for digging (in the mines)
TownCrier
There's Gold in Them There Black Helicopters
TownCrier
Gold Bugs Light Up as They Forecast a Short Squeeze
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.htmlPrime reading for all Knights assembled.
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold dn $7 on UK gold sale plan
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 7--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $7, or 2.4%, at $283.70
per ounce after diving to a 1-month low of $280.30 this morning on the UK
Treasury's announcement that it plans to sell 415 tonnes of its 715 tonne gold
reserve. The news dented confidence in the gold market, pulling the plug on the
recent rally which had taken Jun to a 2-month high Thursday.
Gold fell on across-the-board selling, with spot prices gapping down in the
London market after the UK gold sale announcement. "People were overly short
coming in and as COMEX opened it sold off," said one trader, noting that gold
then managed to trim some of its losses throughout the session.

"I don't think its an underestimation to say the UK sales were a hammer blow
to confidence of the bullion market," said James Steel, analyst at Refco.
While the amount to be sold is less than some of the previous central bank
sales "what's important is the fact that it's coming from a G7 nation," Steel
explained. Traders and analysts said that the news had sparked fears other
countries, especially those in Europe, would follow suit. Against the backdrop
of International Monetary Fund sales the news is very bearish, agreed most.
Gold also saw little support from today's US payroll data, which allayed
fears of any surge in inflation amid a tight labor market, said economists.

Also adding to gold's general malaise were downgrades of the ratings of
major gold mining companies by Goldman Sachs and the overall slump in gold
equities which followed the UK gold sale announcement.

The Philex XAU index of gold equities was down 10.56, 12.8%, at 72.07 at
1800 ET and the AMEX Gold Bugs index (HUI) was down 9.67, 11,2%, at 76.77.
While some players were taking solace from the fact that Jun gold managed to
hold above the $280 support level, the voracity of the selloff was
"frightening," said one trader.
After the recent rally "we're back to where we started and expect to see it
probe lower next week," said another trader, noting that it could be oversold
and as a consequence, the Japanese session may open with some buying after the
weekend.

The UK Treasury said that the first stage in the sale of the full 415 tones
will be the sale of 125 tonnes of gold during 1999/2000, in 5 separate auctions
conducted by the Bank of England. The first auction will be held Jly 6, and the
others are expected to be held every other calendar month.
Some questioned the sanity behind the UK Treasury's move. "Why announce
before you're going to sell? How is that going to help your cause?" said one
trader.
"The moment that gold felt it could go somewhere, they come in and broadside
the whole market -- how could they be so lacking in finesse," he complained.
He said that gold had recently started to behave "more orderly" and was in
the midst of a short-covering rally.

Ian MacDonald, executive vice-president of MKS Finance (USA), said that
his "worst fears" have been realized. "I've felt for a long time that central
banks hate gold and it's ironic they make this announcement when gold was moving
up and Greenspan was mumbling about inflation fears," he said.
"Was this intentional timing to try and hold gold price down? You have to
raise questions here," he said. He noted that this latest sale has occurred
against a backdrop of increased central bank lending. "This has all put supply
into the market--what's going on here and who will be next?" he questioned.
He said that some market players are probably assuming that others in Europe
will follow suit.

"Central bankers hate gold--I haven't found one that's positive about gold.
They think it's a stale asset and paper is their king," he said.
Joe Rosta, analyst at CPM Group said that the UK Treasury disposals would be
over a period of years, so that the price effects should be modest.
However, he noted that some participants view the sales proposed by the UK,
IMF and Swiss National Bank as a precursor for additional increased gold sales.
"Our feeling is this is not a big deal, and it appears that is the feeling
enough market participants shared otherwise we would have expected prices to
drop further," Rosta noted.

Meanwhile, today's commitment of traders report from the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission showed that as of May 4, short positions held
by commercial players climbed 21,011 contracts to 79,119 contracts, while
non-commercial shorts fell 25,873 to 68,306 contracts.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $283.7, dn $7; RANGE: $290.9-280.3

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
PH in LA
Things are getting clearer now!

Michael writes in today's gold report: "We have said time and again that nations do not sell gold because they want to, they sell it because they have to."

When he says "have to" it would seem he means: "Since there has been no discernable movement towards IMF sales, and since the limitations of Swiss cooperation have been fully aired, with the POG inching over $190, SOMEONE has to sell some gold or watch a cataclysm unfold in the financial system. Part of such a cataclysm would surely include the end of the LBMA (and a host of other gold shorts). With nowhere else to turn, the BOE (claiming to protect the system as much as bailing out their rich, soon-to-be-bankrupt, friends) has stepped up to the plate like real straight-shooters and announced (in the words of goldnbones (5/7/99; 13:16:12MDT - Msg ID:5719) "then I guess you bought it... But what they don't tell you is that they actually delivered it a long, long time ago!"

What a joke!

As Mozel pointed out earlier today (over at that other forum): "What kind of auction is it when they sell only to the proper counterparties (read LBMA and friends) and then only to the LOWEST bidder?"

It must be obvious to everyone by now. This is not a sale. It is the ANNOUNCEMENT of a sale (and they didn't even get the date right...because the sale has already taken place). Just another ruse to keep the game going a little longer! In my mind the question is: What really is the point to all their continuing effort? They know they are sitting on a keg of dynamite with the fuse burning. Every time they pull off one of these capers the fuse gets shorter (pun intended). Since the POG doesn't seem to go any lower than $180/oz there can be no exit from their short positions, just rollovers. What are they hoping for?

Maybe for flying saucers to land in time for the millenium celebration bringing a gift to humanity of 10,000 tons of gold to replace what has been squandered (sold short).

Yeah right!
USAGOLD
Hi PH in LA...
Good to see you posting again, my friend.

Question: I don't understand the part quoting Mozel about the gold going to the "LOWEST" bidder. ?? Does that mean the gold will be sold for one pence? (I wish!) In my view this gold should be offered to the British citizenry under those terms. After all, it is their gold, not the LBMA's.

I did not find the post FOA was referring to where the BOE stated that this was a restricted sale either. Was the "lowest bidder" statement in that article also?
Aragorn III
PH in LA...you must reveal your source for gold.
to think I was pleased at additional opportunities in $280's when they looked to be gone for good, and there you are speaking of $180 and $190. Wishful thinking, or savvy shopping, my friend? I do know your answer, and can picture the smile.

JA--thank you for your additional thoughts in our developing discussion. I find we are much in agreement, and am pleased. This has become quite a long day, however, and I must promise to pick this up after consultations with the sandman.

Such a day...does one dare look a gift horse in the mouth? No. We ride!

got (more) gold?
Aragorn III
USAGOLD...find your answer at SteveH post 5691 this a.m.
from the Dow Jones Newswire
"Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted
bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England."
USAGOLD
Aragorn...While rub the sandman's offering into your eyes let me rub the disbelief out of mine.
Am I missing something here? If I understand this correctly, a closed club where everybody knows each other is going to pay the lowest accepted bid at a private, closed auction? That's very nearly unbelievable. Why don't they just give it to them and save the cost of the auction? Is there any word if they are going to publish the prices realized?

I know the sandman calls, so answer if you feel like it. If not, we'll pick this up later.

Anybody else out there who would like to help me with this are welcome to let me know the score.

In the meantime, I call on the wizardrous one with the flowing white beard to chair and organize a special committee of the Table Round to organize our purchasing power and get an app in for LBMA membership.
Aragorn III
On the lowest bid I might add...
The volume that is bid upon plays a role. Start with the high bid and subtract the desired bars from total to be auctioned. If bars remain, consider the next lower bid and subtract those number of desired bars from remaining total...and so on until the lowest bider does not get his order filled. They ALL pay that lowest price, and all gold is in new ownership. If several parties are competing for the entire lot, all gold goes to the highest bidder.

My friend in Scotland cannot participate in this. Perhaps I should tell him to call you, MK? Your gold shines as bright, does it not? I know that it does, as I have some from your famous treasury that is guarded over by these many good knights of the esteemed Round Table.
Good night for now!
beesting
@Christine-Another oil refinery fire
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990507/9t.htmlAnother oil refinery fire,this time in Houston Texas'story to follow.

On the sale of British Gold:
The people of Great Britian should be OUTRAGED!!!
What has historically happened when a country sells Gold?
Their paper money gets devalued in relation to all the other paper currencies,lets go down the recent list:
Belgium-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
Canada-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
Australia-sold Gold-paper money lost value.
And the list goes on.Why does this happen? Well, lets give the official definition of the floating exchange rate again:

Currencies strengthen or weaken based on a nation's reserves of hard currency and GOLD,its international trade balance, its rate of inflation and interest rates, and the general strength of its economy.

Lets take a wild guess as to why this may be happening:
As Stranger recently pointed out the British Pound dollar ratio is about 160 U.S.cents to the Pound.
The EURO dollar ratio is about 95 U.S. cents to the EURO.
Great Britain is joining a coalition of countries already using the EURO in a massive joining of European Stock Markets,date not announced yet.Soooo to bring the value of the British Pound down to the paper value of the EURO and the U.S. dollar what better way to devalue a nations currency than to sell the Gold that the gives the paper value in relation to other paper monies.What a scam to the people who use British Pounds............beesting
USAGOLD
Steve.....
Gee. Sorry I missed your post, o vigilant one! Thank you again for your guarding these castle walls in the wee hours. My day would have been considerably different had I read that post.

Question, Steve: Do you think we should track the gold price from the low following the BOE announcment today -- June $280.30? Maybe list it as +/-BOE? Today's close would be BOE+3.40. Sort of a memorial?
PH in LA
Lowest bid? New Auction Rules.
Aragorn:

Thanks for having already understood and forgiven my typos replacing 2's with 1's.

Michael:

Here is Mozel's comment from this morning. Aragorn seems (as usual) to have insight to spare is on this subject, also. While I was looking for it he found the reference right here.

Date: Fri May 07 1999 11:07
mozel (@Some Auction @The Lowest Bidding "monetary institutions" get the gold.) ID#153110: Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Separately, the Bank of England said it intends to sell about 25 tons of gold at each of the five auctions, with the first auction to be held July 6. The first auction would be on a single, or uniform, price basis with all successful bidders paying a single price equal to the lowest accepted bid. The bidding will be subject to review after that, the central bank said. It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England."

"Auctioned to the lowest bidder." Wow, that's Newspeak fer sure.
Red Duck
UK Gold reserves - Math
Re. UK gold sales: 125 is 3% of 4167 not 750
( in ounces 4.02 M oz is 3% of 133.96 M oz).

3% of 750 is 22.5 (3% of 24.11 M is 720,000)

One other note: My records show UK gold reserves
of only 18.1 M oz not, 24.1, but those numbers are
close enough not to change the effect on the market.
THX-1138
The scales have fallen from my eyes.
FOA/ANOTHER I think I am begining to understand what is going on. I am going to try and sum up what I think happened today, and would welcome any corrections to my thinking that you could provide.

1) Middle East Oil countries have been demanding Gold in payment for Oil all along through a backdoor means so far. (Saudi Arabia?) is the main one to be concered with. The U.S. has been able to barter for Oil from the Saudi's by providing them military aid and protection for years, but the Gold coffers have started getting low and they want the yellow stuff now. Other Western Oil suppliers are out of the picture because they have never demanded payment for oil with Gold. They all are paid with U.S. dollars and what ever local governments currency.

2) Hedge Funds have borrowed Gold from bullion banks at low interest rates to gamble in the stock market. The price of Gold over the last few years has been manipulated down to about the cost of production and they can't keep covering the short positions that they have put themselves into. Their loan contracts are about to expire and they are in need of replacing the Gold with interest, but are unable to.

3) The IMF Gold sales to support impoverished nations was all just a smoke screen. The real reason was that that was the only source of large amounts of Gold available for sale anywhere in the world. The U.S. has veto power over the sales of that Gold and it looks like the U.S. Congress will not endorse the sales.

4) Yesterday the price of Gold was about to hit some repurchase limit and it had to be stopped or we would have seen complete chaos in the stock market.

5) Today we get these Gold sales from the Bank of England announcement. The Bank of England is a major player in the hedge fund game and saw there was no way for Gold repayment by the funds. Therefore they decide to declare a sale when in essance these sales have happened a year or two ago. Now they claim this is for investments in other countries currencies (U.S., EURO, YEN). They are wanting the funds to give them the money that they sold the Gold for is what is going on today, right?

6) Gold is/was used by the U.S. government to calculate and show inflations rise and fall. By having Gold remain low and letting the hedge funds sell it on the market was one means to funnel the Gold to (Saudi Arabia?) and help pay for the oil and make it look like the U.S. economy was booming.

7) Greenspan is just a pawn in this game (A Gold lover at heart) and has been helping to warn American investor for the last year or so that they should start to pull out of the market. By allowing Gold to fall to such low rates he is providing the American "Induhviduals" (quoting the Members of Dogberts New Ruling Class term for non-members) a means to save their investments if they would only wake up.





Did I get anything right/wrong here? Please inform me. Info and corrective criticism wanted.
Also want to know why everyone thinks June will be the month that Gold will go up and how much do you think it will rise in one month?

P.S. Gold mines around the world should declare June a "Mining Holiday" and stop producing for one month to see what happens. Banks declare banking holidays why cant mining companies do the same. Gold is money, RIGHT?
THX-1138
Town Crier (Msg 5721)
The numbers in that report don't add up.
BOE said to sell 300 tons from 715 tons.
This is to be 3% of their total holdings? This is not even 30%. It is more like 42%.

Then the article says 125 tons will be sold in 5 auctions.
What happened to the other 175 tons?

125 tons does not equal 3% or 30%. It is 20%?

I'm confused!
Gandalf the White
Getting it Straight ---
OK --- Here is the story of the BoE Gold sale, in Hobbit language ! The BoE has 715 tonnes of Au. The BoE will "auction" to "qualified bidders" a total of 415 tonnes, over a few years, with 125 tonnes to be "sold" starting this "fiscal year". (call it 1999/2000) These "auctions" this year will number five, each of about 25 tonnes and will commence in July '99 and then everyother month (Sept. Nov. Jan. and March) The price of the "sale" will be determined as the lowest bid taking the last of the offering. (This is the toughest method of bidding ! You do not wish to bid high, but if you bed to low you get nothing !) After this 1999/2000 "auction" the BoE will have 290 tonnes of Au to "sell" in future "auctions". GOT IT ? ---
Comment to MK --- yes, indeed I caught the challange to start the effort to meet the requirements as a "qualified bidder", BUT YOU can see that this is ONLY a anti-Gold PR campaign that is another sham to generate additional time and perhaps allow the picking up of Gold from the scared and uneducated panicky Gold neophytes that sell into these rumors. The best way to benefit from this BoE "sale" is to exchange as many of those green pieces of paper having pictures of dead Presidents for the available Gold at the prices that will not be seen again until the next emergency scam is offered by those that are attempting to save themselves at the expense of honor, Country, and mankind.
MK --- My check is in the mail to USAGOLD.
<;-)
Christine
@THX-1138--agree on everything you said well, except AG
IMHO, Alan Greenspan is no pawn. He is at least castle or knight, if not the hand that moves the pieces for one team.
Peter Asher
What next?
I see no one has yet commented on the latest "accidental" missile bombing, This Time the Chinese Embassy!! The Chinese have been supporting Belgrade's Position in the security council. Can't wait to see what 'Spin' our people put on this one. Heck, by Monday morning we might be having WW III !! That'll fix the short's wagon!!

As I've been following today's events, especially this incredible irrational construct of an alleged auction, sale, loan call bailout, nuttier then a fruit cake, attempted rape of the English peoples nest egg; I've been subliminally reminded, all day, of some movie scene from way back. Finally it clicked in. Have any of you ever scene the musical, Merat' Sade. There's this scene where he's sitting in this old style (bucket filled) bath tub, and all these other lunatics are singing and dancing around him. Total bloody insanity.

Well it's not over till the fat lady sings, (In this case the Auctioneer) "Going, going, gone"

The Stranger
Tulips and Mania
THX-1138....3% of total RESERVES, which include foreign currency holdings as well as bullion.

Michael and others....Actually this auction is being done in a traditional "Dutch Auction" format. Ironically, with so much talk of tulip-bulb-mania lately, this is precisely how cut tulips have been sold in Holland for centuries. They are still sold, and quite effectively, in just this manner every Spring.

Since beginning my accumulation of gold mining stocks last year, I have been aware that past gold bull markets have featured very sudden precipitous drops, particularly early on. In fact, I propose that it is entirely NORMAL to lose half of what seems like a hard-earned gain in a single day. Anyone wishing to verify this can do so by checking a long term chart of the XAU. Remember, one and all, nobody BELIEVES in this market yet. Probably, no one will for months to come. This is what is so comical about today's panic. So far as anybody knows, BOE didn't sell an ounce, yet capitulation was rampant.

Trust me, there is no worse contingency facing the world economy today than still-lower commodity prices. For that reason, THEY MUST NOT AND WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN! Our bottom was made months ago. Even though we may have more weakness for a day or two, I would call everyone's attention to the $4/oz. recovery which occurred off of today's low. With the failure of U.S. bonds to rally, gold shorts were already in there covering.
turbohawg
Lew Rockwell ...
Christine
@Beesting--Thanks for URL on spontaneous combustion
Am keeping a little file on evidence of the new scientific phenomena of spontanous combustion in oil refineries. Might make for some interesting research when gasoline shortages start.
THX-1138
oil refinery theory
Has anyone ever thought that these oil refinery fires were a little timely and suspicious? Could it be sabotage? Maybe some foreign spies from some government Clinton bombed is getting back at us by attacking our gas production? Well, time to start stocking up on food before the oil shortage hits and increases prices. If the MAPCO refinery in North Pole, Alaska suddenly catches fire then I may actually start believing my own theory.
Christine
Euro and US dollar forces are working in unison





















Gold Forum





We gather at the forum to learn from one another by sharing knowledge,
exchanging ideas, thoughts and opinions. To illuminate and to be educated.
All are invited to read and post. Gentlemanly conduct will be the attire
of the day ... and all forms of precious metals investments the topic of
the hour.

Gold-Eagle or its Sponsor do not necessarily endorse any statements that
are made, or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Reading is open to all, but posting requires one-time registration.


[ Add Message ] [ Register ]


Select Previous Periods Current Postings



As JUNE approaches, Bosnia war winding down
(chris)
May 08, 04:52

Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the
maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This interpretation would also support that the most powerful work in relative unison. There does not appear to be a major euro versus dollar split at the very top. They all work in unison for their own interests. The split is their interests versus everyone else's. By this I do not mean that serious damage will not be done to the US dollar, but that the damage is all part of the scheme that is umfolding.
Christine
Euro and US dollar forces are working in unison
test




















Gold Forum





We gather at the forum to learn from one another by sharing knowledge,
exchanging ideas, thoughts and opinions. To illuminate and to be educated.
All are invited to read and post. Gentlemanly conduct will be the attire
of the day ... and all forms of precious metals investments the topic of
the hour.

Gold-Eagle or its Sponsor do not necessarily endorse any statements that
are made, or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Reading is open to all, but posting requires one-time registration.


[ Add Message ] [ Register ]


Select Previous Periods Current Postings



As JUNE approaches, Bosnia war winding down
(chris)
May 08, 04:52

Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the
maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This interpretation would also support that the most powerful work in relative unison. There does not appear to be a major euro versus dollar split at the very top. They all work in unison for their own interests. The split is their interests versus everyone else's. By this I do not mean that serious damage will not be done to the US dollar, but that the damage is all part of the scheme that is umfolding.
Christine
Euro and dollar forces work in unison
Three weeks to June, and we hear that agreement to end
Bosnia war is near (thankfully). This would suggest that
military action in Bosnia has not been a currency war,
but rather a currency maneuver. This would mean the maneuver was likely engaged in to keep the euro down
until June. As someone commented yesterday, those in
power have alot of dollars to get switched over to euros
at the best possible exchange rate, prior to when POG
would start to move in June as per rumor. The rise in US
treasuries now suggests that the process of
transitioning to euros is in full swing.

This would suggest that the powers at the very top work in unison. There is no serious fundamental division between euro forces versus US dollar forces. They work for themselves and against the rest of us. This does not mean we are not about to see serious damage done to the US dollar, but that that is part of the plan.
NORTH OF 49
Christine, now I am confused!!
I have been following your posts with interest for a couple of months now, and noted that you concurred with FOA and ANOTHER posts on several occasions.

REF: post 4/17/99 Msg ID 4816
post 4/18/99 Msg ID 4056
post 4/19/99 Msg ID 4910
post 4/25 etc. etc

I am always keen to absorb others opinions, frankly one learns more by listening to others (IMHO) than through ones' own research, but your posts of 7:53 and 9:15 on GOLD-EAGLE this morning left me somewhat confused. May I enquire what event(s) caused you to shift your opinion so dramatically?
Please keep in mind, I am not being critical--just curious.
Thanks.

No49
Chicken man
Christine & THX-1138
Picked up this gem:http://www.webpal.org/Gas.htm
Beach saying Y2K test not going good at the refineries....try to fit that "piece" into the puzzle.....and what "cooking oil you do get has to be paid in cheescake"....what do you think of the "riddle"....I think Long Thin and Hard on this does realy know.....ANOTHER...what do you think..?
Jon
Gold Eagle
north of 49... please advise what is gold eagle you mentioned earlier today. Another web site?
canamami
Article "Gold Bugs Light Up as They Forecast a Short Squeeze"
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.htmlOn the fringes no more; goldbugs are going mainstream. The UK central bank made it so clear and palpable, I submit the "gold manipulation theory" cannot now be dismissed out-of-hand, or perhaps even denied.

Stupid Question: Is the $100 Gold Maple Leaf a one-ounce coin?
FOA
Gold Talk!
Canamami, Michael and ALL,
I hope to post here about 8:00 MDT. Many very good posts written here these last few days. They need discussion!
FOA
Richard, Oregon
FOA: Trival Questions Just For My Inquiring Mind!
I've always been intrigued by ones own logic/reasoning regarding the purchase of precious metals in one form or another. (I have found little to no discussion on this topic.) There are numerous opinions and reasons one does what they do (It seemed like a good idea at the time!) and your recent post noted below lead me to the questions below:

FOA (5/7/99; 8:09:11MDT - Msg ID:5699)
You stated: "The beginning of this new bull market in gold will be mired with "extreme" volatility! We never expected anything different. With the ending of the largest circulating reserve currency system about to ensue, nothing less than an investment in "actual gold bullion" will work."

FOA (5/7/99; 8:33:38MDT - Msg ID:5704)
You stated: "As stated, I will be buying over several weeks. This "surprise" is welcome and buying by many physical entities is ongoing!"

It would seem that your preference of precious metal ownership would be gold and in the form of bullion only. Correct? Any particular choice of one bullion coin or another? I've observed numismatic precious metal ownership is for more subjective than straight bullion. Do you agree? I too see the news of recent days leading us to very "opportune buying moments in history", the likes of which we may not see again for a long time. Any further thoughts or things I may of missed? Thank you for your time. Trash this if you wish.
Usul
Chicken and Cheesecake
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htmChicken Man,

May I refer you to the following from Another, which can be
read at the above site in the "Gold Reports" list
under "Another Old & Free", or directly via:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~gunbury/ANOTHER21.html
- together with lots more -

This one was a classic... (fascinating how you percieve
"inside knowledge" even as the original thoughts were
turned into a satire about cheesecake and the Baker
in Switzerland)

My feeling is that the shorts will be given to wolves, but
as noone can predict the timing of a crash, noone can
predict when events of the magnitude suggested by Another
may commence. And there are a few big gorillas trying
to hold up the house of cards.

I don't think Mr. Kosares has posts this far back on
USAGOLD main site...

Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 21:03
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Someone once said, "noone wants gold, that's why the US$
price keeps falling". Many thinking ones laugh at such
foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is
dropping precisely because "too many people are buying it"!
Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not
better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices?
If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the
footsteps of giants?
I tell you, it is an easy path to follow! An experienced
guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see.
The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying
physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is loosing
value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will
disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The
massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now
missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not
anymore! We have reached production costs. Oil will have
nothing of "gold paper" if gold must stay in the
ground! And a CB values the wishes of oil far above it's
return of leased gold! Hear me now, "if gold tries to go
lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the
OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no
currency system could stand if "Oil" were to bid for gold!

Oil has kept "the deal" as the CBs sold paper to lower golds
price! All is fair. Asia will bid for gold not as in the
past. They now know that the free flow of oil has more value
than the Pacific economy. But the price that was paid may
be more than the world currency system can endure.

To close:
The US$ has risen on a flight of fear. That will now end as
the LBMA shorts are given to wolves. If this fire burns too
hot, gold will turn and it's trading halted. The price of
oil will explode as gold becomes the "world oil currency"!
Even now oil has locked the IMFs gold, Asia will bid against
them no more. We come to extreame times.

Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth.
Richard, Oregon
Beautiful Day
Usul - Must be a beautiful day across America. Things are very quite here. No responses!
SteveH
perception
Everyone knows that a CB sells to other banks or trading partners. To auction gold to a select few dealers or other banks or trading partners is a means to raise cash, closes a position, or otherwise divest funds or a debt. I can't bid on that gold. The gold I can bid on, my coin dealer buddy tells me is in short supply but it finally does come for him to sell at the price set on some futures exchange. What we have here is a market of physical sales at two levels. Bank to bank. Dealer to consumer. It seems that bank to dealer supplies are thin. It seems that bank to bank supplies are non-existent and that is why the BOE seems to be selling, to fill a void, either because they have to pay a debt or are delaying the invetibable short squeeze. I am suprised that the bank to dealer supply still has gold coins. My interest peaks too when my coin dealer buddy still has supply but yet complains of delivery problems, yet he still has gold at current rates. Well that isn't correct. He told me he sells gold eagles at $310 plus tax. So obviously, gold continues to reach coin dealers but they are still filling demand. Gold must be slowly reaching the suppliers of coin dealers albeit slowly. Gold is reaching suppliers of suppliers of coin dealers, and since this must be mints then they are being supplied with gold to meet demand, albeit slowly too. So, how is the mint getting its gold, who supplies the mints with gold? It must be a fabricator that makes the gold planchets or die-cut rounds. This fabricator is getting its gold somewhere, albeit slowly. I doubt they are taking delivery from the futures market, as I hear it is slow to deliver. Oh, wait, slow to deliver? Maybe we are on to something here. So who supplies the futures markets? Bullion banks? CBs? Mines?

What we have here is a lack of information. What strikes me as odd, then, is that gold coins can be bought at spot plus a modest dealer mark up. Yet, the BOE feels compelled to sell gold, announce same, depress the price thus guaranteeing a lower price (except it is an auction and to private customers from whom the payment price for said gold will probably not be disclosed). Again a lack of information doesn't fill in the voids of the gold market mystery. But I am curious. If gold is so short, so forward sold, who keeps supplying gold for coins and why? Doesn't this make worse the supply situation further up the chain? Making it further short, which leads to my conclusive question? Are we the consumer being supplied borrowed gold at non-premium prices to hide the underlying fundamental supply problem that becomes worse with each coin purchased? Finally, as more gold coins are bought by consumers the greater the stress on the supply and the quicker the supply channel will break?

Here is evidence of supply channel stress:

Mint announces silver and gold coin shortages at the beginning of year.
US Mint delivers enough coins to cause dealers to lower the applied premium to the short supply of coins as the fresh supply arrives.
COMEX available reserves are consolidated from several banks to just one (or was it two?).
Slow delivery of all physical gold.

New subject. The BOE's obvious and sudden announcement was timed just right. Everyone reading this would agree that we were expecting the POG to hit the stops and boom over $300. While NY was in bed, BOE drives the price lower. Yet, it was such a precisely timed announcement that all observers knew immediatly the intent: to keep gold away from $291.50US. It was a desperate move that disregarded any subtlety or tact. It was an abrupt push. No excuse me's, so sorry's. Just a big bully push that made everyone take notice: HOLDING THE PRICE OF GOLD BELOW $290US IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH FOR THE BOE TO GO ON RECORD.

I believe this single act did more to gel for industry observers all the innuendos, rumors, and acts of gold price suppression were not innuendos, rumors, nor unintentional acts rather deliberate and now obvious attempts to prevent gold from hitting the stop -- A big sign of weakness that now opens those stops to target practice to those who may only have suspect but now know. The BOE announcement was as though it hung a big sign around the POG and said, "I dare you to push me above my closest stops." It is only a matter of time now. The flare to buy physical gold has been shot. It now floats above the sea illuminating any further attempt of POG suppression subtle or obvious as last desperate attempts to prevent what history will forever record as skullduggery of power. The enemy prepares in the shadow of the flare as it floats in the air.

As the flare is extinquised in a few days as it hits the surface, who will fire the next flare? The mysterious shooter best check the breach and the muzzle lest the flare gun backfire.
Christine
@ North of 49
Thank you for asking me to explain myself. I appreciate the question. To me this is a puzzle and as more pieces become clearer, some of them have to be arranged. From the beginning, I have thought the war in Bosnia was designed to hold the euro down, and therefor was a currency war between the US and euroland. However, I have always suggested that this couldn't be all there is too it, as the IMF and dollar powers are simply too powerful to lose in a dispute with euroland. I have believed that there was a higher level above the goverments working in relative unison to control and manipulate events. Now this does appear to be the case. IMHO, the war in Bosnia is not a currency war. It is simply a currency manipulation. All the powers, whether euroland or US (ie such as G Sach's), are using this time period to convert US dollars into euros at the best possible exchange rate. The euro is deliberately being held down by 1.the war in Bosnia, and by 2.the artificial low POG. Once the Bosnia war ends, and once POG is set free, the euro will soar relative to the US dollar. Those who have been able to convert their dollars to euros (not you or me), will gain hugely. IMVHO, once the dollar is devalued, there will be an announcement of a new gold-linked US currency. Then the powerful will be able to move their fortunes they are now moving into euros back into the new US currency. The euro is in part a scheme to protect and enrich the powerful during this currency transition. It has always been my thinking that only the very powerful would be benefiting from this. This is not about the euro versus the dollar. In fact, the eventual merging of the euro and the new to be US dollar is probably already planned also. If events start to suggest otherwise, then I will rearrange pieces again. I am sorry, but just writing about this makes me very angry.
Peter Asher
Steven
Great piece of writing!! Fact follows fact in perfect cadence. What happens next though, when another break for 300 takes off. Who's CB drew the short straw for that (alleged) market dump.
SteveH
Peter
Exactly, who will fire the next flare? But it will soon not matter. Because, this BOE move was a desensitization to those in the know. We will expect the next flare. But we will be prepared with sun glasses or night vision goggles.

Worst case scenario (actually I can think of worse), is the US will sell gold. I just hope Congress must approve that. If Congress must approve it, it won't happen.

So what would be worse? All banks to say they will sell gold. You tell me. I am out of ideas.

Steve

PS. Thanks.
Peter Asher
Christine
I think this conflict has purposes way beyond currencies. The latest clue is the absurd 'explanation' for taking out The Chinese Embassy. If anyone believes that this sparkling new building was erected in Belgrade, without our "outdated Intelligence" becoming current, well, there's this bridge over the East River that I'd like to talk to them about. 10% down and long term payments at only 1% per annum!!

I can't begin to fathom what grand event "They' have got written into the script, but I don't think we're going to have fun yet.
Peter Asher
Steve, one more run at it
The only Idea I've got is what I suggested last night in# 5743. Nothing's changed hands yet (or it already has). When all the other CBs sold gold, we heard about it months later and 10s of dollars lower. They could of tanked the POG harder by just selling without an announcement. I just can't quite come up with a vision of how they will moon-walk their way back out of it.

As far as the story that they want to beat out the IMF and the Swiss; that's a crock! If that were the case, they would let the short covering create a bull trend to sell into.
Christine
test
test
Christine
North of 49
I have not changed my broad opinion about this. I don't necessarily say everything I think if it won't be helpful in clarifying the pieces. Chris
David Linkley
Peter and SteveH....Did you see this?
Interesting slant on BOE story
--------------------

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, SATURDAY MAY 8 1999 - The new Labour government thought that gold was a barbarous relic. An
up-to-date, trend-setting country could manage without it. So the Bank of England was told to start selling the gold in its vaults at $35 an ounce, the price at which the Banque de France was buying it. Which of them was right became clear when the price went to $350 and then to $850. That was Harold Wilson's first government and now today's New Labour government is at it again. It has ordered a clearance sale in Threadneedle Street and will not be content until more than half of the gold that is still there has gone.

By signalling its punches to the market, it makes sure of getting the worst price. This is what Gordon Brown would call transparency. At the end of a century of inflation, finance ministers of his stamp still shun gold and would rather have each others' promises to pay. Gold's value does not depend on anybody's promise and that makes an anomaly in their eyes and a challenge to their own authority. They have already stamped out competition among the currencies of Europe.

The Chancellor wants us to come into this monopoly and use its Monopoly money, as the up-to-date, trend following thing to do. His clearance sale will clear the way for it. As for the Prime Minister, he may well believe that gold is "history", his term for everything that happened before New Labour was invented. Gold has a long history and ministers' promises a rather shorter one, but long enough to teach which of the two to trust.
Peter Asher
David, Thank you
Now why can't our newspapers speak some intelligent truth like that? (Rhetorical question)!!

Hey Steve! Maybe 'They' are counting on a national backlash to justify a course reversal before they have to actually part with any gold.
Peter Asher
Goldfly: (And anyone else)
I challenge you to a 'wordplay' competetion on the BOE being on "Threadneedle street." Posting to be after Midnight MDT
NORTH OF 49
Jon--sorry for delay--been away
Jon, at the risk of violating the guidelines of this forum, I'll refrain from designating the specific URL, and instead suggest that you go into a search engine such as www.momma.com and dial up "gold chat"--and dive in!!

Christine, I have obvioulsy touched a sensitive nerve, for which I apologise. The intensity of your suspicions of manipulation at various levels is--oh, I wouldn't say alarming, but worthy of further investigation, if one just had the means. It's just another one of those situations in which the bar has been raised to ionispheric levels, assuring that the people who comprise the masses, such as you and I, are kept on our collective leashes. It ain't a great fate, but where does one start to climb the beanstock??

No49
Beowulf
The gold poker game
This BOE (Bank of England) anouncment, it's not a sale yet until July, is like a giant poker game gone bad for the short players. The BOE just showed everyone the price that needs to be broken to get the shorts to start covering, $290.

It's like we are all sitting at a large poker game and the shorts have been winning all day, taking everyones money and giving them stomach pains. Suddenly the BOE walks behind the short players with a huge mirror flashing the cards in there hands to the rest of the table. What do they have in their hands? Nothing. They've been winning all the money by bluffing every time. If you were the one losing all your money to them what would you do? Grin really big and bet everything knowing you have nothing to lose. Is this what we might see in the coming weeks? The losing players suddenly buying gold to break the magic $290 barier to start the rally? Any thoughts?
FOA
BOE!
ALL,
Well, by now everyone must be aware of the "open management" of the gold price. "Another" had been bringing this picture to light long ago. In puzzle form, he offered ideas, Thoughts and directions for consideration. Only a short time ago most analysts completely wrote off such
"thinking" as being absolutely "on the fringe of reality"! Today, the "absolute fact" is that gold is used and managed as a "world currency" of major importance. After the BOE announcement on Friday, currency traders are grasping the concept that gold is, as never before "at the center of
reality"!

Many different factions are maneuvering gold these days, and each has their own agenda. The IMF / dollar faction, many years ago, went along with Europe in lowering the gold price in dollar terms. It made the dollar look stable and enforced it's continued use as the "currency of settlement" for strategic commodities. Any country running a balance of trade surplus of dollars, was free to buy gold at a stable to lower price, and partially replace the paper dollar reserves. Because the dollar is the "world reserve currency" many countries ran dollar surpluses with trading partners outside of the US. In this light we can see how the integrity of the dollar was expanded, even in countries of nonnative dollar origin!

Not only was physical gold purchased, but paper gold with distant CB backing was also accepted. Ever wonder how all of this gold was placed? You see, over the last many years, there has been a quiet boom going on in gold ownership. The sheer number of world gold buyers has
more than doubled, along with the amount of gold owned! The problem is that the amount of physical gold in existence has not doubled, only the warehouse receipts.

Most of it never, ever left the vaults, as the true placement was done in receipt form. Yes, slowly, over the years, even major private bullion holders offered up their physical for "convoluted, future delivered, leased and released gold". Much of what is now held is little more
than a form of gold options for "future deposit". Not unlike the "cash dollar that is supposed to be in your bank", but really isn't? As the bank only holds your deposit as a "credit" to your account, so is much of the world traded gold "only a credit of account"!

When Central Banks (mostly the European, at first) began to lease / lend gold, they were beginning what was to become "the master plan". The creation of a broad, liquid paper gold market that would ulltementally undermine the dollar, in time. As I said above, initially it was offered as an "appeasement" for continued dollar use. However, even the IMF / dollar faction never expected the successful creation of another competing reserve currency, the Euro! Right up
to it's offering, the political money was on the side of a complete failure, 100% with ten to one odds.

Not only did they lose, the Euro even accepted a percentage of gold as Euro reserves. If that wasn't enough, the ECB also instituted a policy of "marking to the market" it's gold reserves and effectively blocking any new sales or leases. These actions, as subtle and misunderstood as they
were have had the effect of officially making gold money again. Yes, this new broadly traded paper gold market, standing side by side with the physical market has become a world currency.

The problem this creates for the IMF / dollar is that most, if not all of this new gold market is settled in dollars! Dollars that broke a contract with the world in 1971 and went off the "gold exchange standard" at $41 to the ounce. The same dollar reserve currency that is not supported when the gold price rises. If the ECB does nothing but stand firm by not allowing physical out of it's vaults, the dollar will be trapped by gold. The US treasury cannot use gold as a backing reserve as the ECB does, because the BIS would claim it at $41 to settle trade imbalances. They
have that authority and as such it leaves the US the only option of outright gold sales. However, with the dollar as "the" reserve currency, we can expect many nations to bid "aggressively" for any US gold. China, among others comes to mind! That is what America found when they tried to auction it's gold in 1978. The Euro carries no such baggage.

This all leaves us in the present political situation, where the IMF entity, that was formed to replace the gold standard, is now trying to back the present paper gold with physical to prevent a run on the dollar. It is a futile effort as the ECB / BIS have grown the gold market into massive proportions by encouraging the many year expansion of holders through paper securities. All denominated, ultimately, in dollars. We will see $10,000 gold, count on it! It's the only way this can be resolved. That same figure will create massive backing for the Euro and hasten it's journey into world reserve currency status. Expect most of the ECB liability for gold to be easily converted into Euros at the dollars expense.

Now, the BOE action clearly shows the split between them and the IMF / Dollar faction. They have given up on freeing up IMF gold to support the dollar and are actively trying to help their LBMA. England will be forced into the EURO as they abandon ship. I expect an explosion in open interest on Comex as major players try to hedge themselves against short gold. The US now has no choice but to encourage gold to rise and use that action as a political ploy. They will no doubt try to gain much mileage out of the fact that the treasury has 8,000 tonnes of gold for dollar backing or outright sales. It will be a political discussion, only. As the gold market becomes more dynamic and gains media attention, many congressional investigations will target the short funds. After all, with gold killing the dollar, something must be done.

I have some other commits and replies to other posts. Be back in a minute.

FOA


Christine
@Beowulf--great, clarifying analogy
IMHO, if the players are showing their hands, the game is about over. That was essentially laying the cards on the table.
FOA
Reply
Richard, Oregon (5/8/99; 12:09:55MDT - Msg ID:5756)

Hello Richard,
First I want to say I'm sorry I posted 8:00MDT without a PM after the date. Not only that I am very late!

Your questions: " It would seem that your preference of precious metal ownership would be gold and in the form of bullion only. Correct?"
Yes, Richard. It should be viewed as an appreciating cash currency, not an investment.

"Any particular choice of one bullion coin or another? I've observed numismatic precious metal ownership is for more subjective than straight bullion. Do you agree?"
In a way, I agree. However, major investors do look at "numismatic" coins as an "Art Form" not unlike paintings. And, just as paintings were carried off by invading armies, rare coins will also hold their higher value during a currency war. Note: I didn't always feel this way. Another guided me into this style of thinking.

"I too see the news of recent days leading us to very "opportune buying moments in history", the likes of which we may not see again for a long time. Any further thoughts or things I may of missed?"
Please read my last post #5772. thanks FOA



Justmeanu
Master Plan
Hi folks!
I've tried to follow the arguments on golds plight for some time.
Having a suspicious mind being a Scorpio, and hopefully a little intelligence, I think there's trouble afoot.
I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring and disclose my master plan for your opinion.
It seems Gold is being manipulated for whatever reason, that's plain to see. So I've taken a big punt on small cap gold mines with gold still in the ground and not committed re: hedging. Some of these small mines have taken a hiding lately being over committed with debt but producing at $220.00 ounce and will make spectacular recoveries if the gold price moves.
I believe the Emperor has no clothes.
Justmeanu
PS Still seeking good looking women with no taste!
FOA
Reply
THX-1138 (5/7/99; 17:14:19MDT - Msg ID:5739)

Hello THX-1138,

I think you are on the correct trail. Please read my #5772 post as it may add dimension / expansion to your considerations. It is complicated, but then so is currency trading!
FOA
FOA
Reply
PH in LA (5/7/99; 15:47:31MDT - Msg ID:5729)

Things are getting clearer now!

Hello PH,
I'm happy this is opening up. The BOE action should bring some high powered analysis from the public investment sector. You mentioned Mosel, I think Another had some discussion with him before. If he post here, they would talk again, I'm sure. FOA
FOA
Comment!
canamami (5/7/99; 7:27:41MDT - Msg ID:5697)
Gold Manipulation - Popular Frustration
I found this on a stock investment Board. There's a lot of anger out there:

Hello again canamami,
Yes, many who invest in the gold "industry" are upset with this current state of affairs. However, investors that buy gold as a dollar replacement find this action much to their liking. For them gold is a currency that can not be purchased too cheaply. You see, it all depends how you view gold?
Is it a commodity or is it money? FOA
St. George
THIS IS WAR
htt://www.usagold.comAfter lurking at this site and the others for many months now, I am out of the closet. This is war and I am prepared to fight. The BOE stunt yesterday was the last straw. I am now convinced that the best and most expedious way to slay the beast and the evil forces that are trashing and manipulating gold prices is to take the fight to them, instead of remaining a passive victum of their machinations. It was for this reason that upon hearing the BOE announcement I immediately purchased some gold coins and took possession. This was done both as a protest and I believe as a wise investment. If one is serious about seeing gold restored to its proper place in international commerce and monetary systems worldwide, polite intellectual discussions and bitching will not cut it. One must be prepared to follow in the footsteps of giants. I propose [and will] that everytime the "goon squad" [to use Bill Murphys apt description] orchestrates an attack on gold as occurred yesterday, one should immediately counter with a purchase of physical gold- coins, bars, jewelry, anything made of or with gold. It realy does not matter how large or small the purchase is - just buy something, take possession and get it out of their reach. They have shown themselves to be weak and scared. Now is the time to stick it in the beasts eye. We are many and will prevail, for truth and basic mathematics are on our side. I am off to slay the dragon. PAX
FOA
comment
Chicken man (5/6/99; 18:32:10MDT - Msg ID:5671)
Christine
A very productive walk!.....why not another virtual currency like the EURO....? keep everybody in a state of total confusion.....If FOA or ANOTHER would like to comment as to "Will the Brits (LBMA) rescue the EURO ?
If gold goes to $1000 ,then the Euro would have reserves backed with 45-50% gold instead of 15%....right...?

Hello Chicken man,
No the Brits will not rescue the Euro, but the Euro may well rescue them from going down with the dollar! The BOE sale is but a small drop in the bucket, attempting a political statement that supports the LBMA with gold.
If I remember right, Another never thought that England would survive the currency change. It now looks like they will, at least, go down fighting!
Yes, the ECB system banks will be well backed with reserves, even if their dollar holdings crash! I expect they will be buying gold with dollars, in the open if the US congress does sell any IMF gold reserves.


FOA


Golden Truth
GOLD!
Hello F.O.A I have read all of Anothers thoughts here at U.S.A GOLD and i am presently reading In The Footsteps of Giant.My question this evening is about the June rumor that is circulating.I am assuming it pertains to a change in the price of Gold? Are you aware of it.Also what about a letter that has been mentioned before titled " THE STING".Are these the product of an over active imagination? Also why hasn't Another posted in awhile i have been following you to for 5 months night and day.I noticed that another has not posted for well over a week now,ever since a certain individual remarked "Up yours Pal" I would to apologize for this persons comment.I have learned greatly from the both of you please don't stop posting here,for your "THOUGHTS" are truely Golden. Thankyou.
FOA
comment
St. George (5/8/99; 21:08:00MDT - Msg ID:5779)
THIS IS WAR

Hello St. George,
Good Idea! What really allowed this "master plan" of gold manipulation to work was investors putting their money into the gold industry, not physical gold. Far to many entities purchased paper gold in one form or another (most mutual funds included). This action became an accelerating
trend that the BIS acted upon. They played the gold market for their own purpose. In the process they did give many people an avenue of escape in physical gold. Let's face it, buying gold in the $380 to $280 range was and still is an incredible deal, considering it's history. Now, for reasons I have laid out in the past, any paper gold may have a problem of "perceived value". If the crisis is as bad as the BOE action indicates, the very world currency system will need real gold to survive.
Holders of "gold in the growing" will be fighting an accelerating public outcry for the government to do something! Know what I mean? FOA
FOA
My last post???
"correction" My mistake!

Holders of "gold in the ground"

FOA
Tomcat
Meanwhile, back at the FED...


...Meanwhile, back at the FED. Allen, in deep depression ponders what it will be like to walk the gallows. When gold breaks $290 and the dollar goes into the toilet, Allen knows he will be done for.

In desparation Allen calls in his Genie and asked him how to prevent going to the gallows when the dollar goes ka..plooie.

The Genie replies: "Allen, you are going to need a scapegoat. Do you have one?"

Allen, putting his hand to his throat, replies, "Uh..no Genie, I guess I am done for."

The Genie ponder and then... "Well, lookie here Allen. I just happened to find a spare scapegoat in my magic bag. Yup it will do fine. Its a bug. It's called Y2k. Its perfect... ...Except for one problem Allen. This bug isn't timed to go off until Nov/Dec. You'll have to hold the market up and keep the lid on gold until then. Can you do it?

Allen, making a call the England, smiles. "No prob Geen, it's as good as done.

Smiling, Allen rides off into the sunset confident that he will not go to the gallows. In fact, he now sees that he will go down in history as the savior to his people. He and his new gold-backed currency, the greenspan, will liberate his people from their y2k induced bondage.

.
Goldfly
Peter - A joust?
What manner of wordplay? Methinks you have me at a disadvantage as you obviously have developed a line of thought toward this end.

Besides 00:00 MDT = Past My Bedtime. I'll shall probably be in my bed chamber sawing lumber about then. But I would be interested to see what transpires. I hope you get some takers.

GF
FOA
Reply
Golden Truth (5/8/99; 21:23:33MDT - Msg ID:5781)


Hello Golden Truth,
Thanks for reading and participating in this discussion. We can also thank USAGOLD for creating a "civil" forum on the net. I know some very high powered people read this and will some day sign on. They do enjoy ALL the fine thoughts presented here.
Please understand that Another writes when he wants to offer Thoughts to the minds of others. He does read much of this and gets a "world perception" much the same way we do by talking to others. When someone says, "Up yours Pal", they have no input for consideration. And consideration of each others thoughts is more valuable than wealth. You would be surprised at how many wealthy people hold that opinion. FOA
Goldfly
FOA - 15% backing?
http://www.ecb.int/press/fs/fs990430en.pdf
Actually, it looks like they're at 30%

From the Eurosystem Weekly Financial........

Asset 1 Gold: 105,323

Liability 1
Banknotes in Circulation: 332,280

Asset 1/Liability 1 = 31.69

$1000 gold would equal 100% backing(!?!?!)

GF

Goldfly
Need the PDF viewer?
FOA
Reply
USAGOLD (5/4/99; 11:18:50MDT - Msg ID:5564)
E-Mail Question for Another and/or FOA from Steve
Michael,
I'm at work and don't have my password, but I don't want to forget these thoughts. The Saudi/Iran talks seem to have
vast implications, not only on possible oil prices, but with
regards to reliance on the US military. Could it be that
Saudi doesn't have the same faith in the US, could it be thata Saudi repudiation of the dollar might anger the US? An alliance with Iran would lessen the need for US military presence, thus opening the way for pricing oil in Euros or, perhaps, a basket of currencies, ie dollar/euro/yen.

Could you post this for opinions. I'd be interested to what
you, Another and FOA think.

Reply,
I think the political aspects of that sector of the world is evolving, and doing so in a way most analysts did not consider. Often, I would make a statement of possible alliance changes and would receive the typical "they would never do that because the US has the military for their
protection"! Well, does anyone ever consider that the US would defend that oil supply no matter what currency or price is used to purchase it. There is no possible political or strategic purpose to simply walk away from the middle east if Euros, gold or a basket of currencies were used to
price oil. To do otherwise, would allow the possible complete destruction of the oil fields, and that is a misplaced logic promoted by dollar advocates.

No, in time, oil will be revalued by it's true value for world commerce and that value will be denominated in the strongest currencies. Euros and gold!
Thanks FOA
FOA
Reply
Goldfly (5/8/99; 22:04:55MDT - Msg ID:5787)
FOA - 15% backing?

Goldfly,
Hello again. Truly the ECB percentage as a number does not mean much at this time. It's the concept that is 180 degrees against the IMF / dollar system. For anyone to measure the value of Euro backing at present, is like looking at gold at today's price. It's out of context.
The beauty of the ECB ploy, is that it doesn't lock them into a rigid gold exchange standard. With gold trading in the open, all currencies are free to be exchanged for gold at any given point in time. The old IMF / dollar manipulation of gold, used from the early 70s gained nothing and cost the world dearly for the benefit of the fictional US living standard it created. Had they just allowed gold to rise from the beginning, commerce would have been much more balanced, nation to nation.
Prior to the Euro, Europe had to play the IMF game. The same game that has now backfired on the US today. They truly don't need the IMF and may pull out later. FOA
FOA
Time to go.
I hope to return early tomorrow.

Thank you FOA
Peter Asher
Goldfly
Not yet, just now working it out. The street name seems so perfect for something wordsmithy.

I thought of you as a westerner, but from your sat. nt. bed time I'm now guessing New England.
Gandalf the White
Thank YOU FOA !
Your view of the BoE announcement and the forthcoming picture of the physical Gold market has given all us Goldhearts much more defined area of discussion. I am sure that I speak for many here at the USAGOLD Forum when I say, stay in touch and help lead us to the golden promised land of the little peoples opportunity to walk in the footsteps of GIANTS. I shall now spend more time rereading and thinking of your eye opening revelations. Thank you again.
<;-)
Peter Asher
Goldfly
That was one of those things that "Seemed like a good idea at the time", But it crashed and burned when I tried it out. The best I could come up with was "The web of intrigue is now woven of threads so thin, they could pass through the eye of a needle"

I'm probably suffering from "Obsessive compulsive wordplay disorder"

The price of gold was tightened up even further on Friday, this time by a BOE constrictor. OK OK I'm going.
el St.One
FOA
I know well your thought on Gold stocks, do you hold the same opinon about stocks of USA oil producers?
Many thanks for your many thoughts here. I am understanding them a lot better. I did not need any convincing, have been a Gold buyer for over 20 years.
I do have one complaint about numismatic Gold Coins, I never sell any. I still own some that I held through the 1980 runup.
Goog health to you el
el St.One
TESTING
Anyone else having trouble posting? 3:36 AM MDT
Christine
@Beowulf--end of game
Again, thanks for most inciteful poker analogy yesterday:
"This BOE (Bank of England) announcement, it's not a sale yet until July, is like a giant poker game gone bad for the short players.
The BOE just showed everyone the price that needs to be broken to get the shorts to start covering, $290."

Is it possible that the BOE's move was the last move in the poker game, ie. laying the cards down on the table. Perhaps that was the intent. They are providing the signal that the shorts will no longer be protected, in effect. They have essentially conveyed that the shorts are there and at what price they can be removed. For this and many reasons, I believe we are just weeks or sooner away from big changes.
SteveH
consideration
What if:

--gold is being truly demonitized and we are all the patsies who will own it while the banks go off and do something else? (devil advocate quetion only) Is this possible?
Christine
@Steve H--demonetizing gold
"They" appear to control gold more and more. My thought is they will not be able to demonetize gold. But they could be able to do things like fix gold's price and reduce it's tradeability, once they've allowed it to rise in price some from here.
Christine
This game is almost over
The beginning of the end really started in March, 99, when the oil states effectively reduced oil supply and dramatically raised prices. POG cannot be manipulated downward very long against strong upward pressure on price of oil. So any further moves now are simply designed to hold gold down a little longer so everyone (IMF/dollar and BIS/euro) can get their euros at a good exchange rate. The US, Euroland, Britain-- via the Bosnia war, and threats to sell gold (Swiss, IMF, BOE) are all working together so they can all get their euros cheap.
Chicken man
Usul
Hello Usul
Thank you for the URL.....spent the day reading instead of talking..learned much...the patience of GIANTS is hard to fathom...could be the lenght of stride when one measures the distance between the FOOTSTEPS...

yoU See yoU Learn....Somethings in life are a joy to discover...but after you find out it would be to no use to reveal....to make oneself greater at the expense of a friend is not in the book of virtues....honor for eyes of three...?

FOA....If the pound and the LBMA are outside the EURO,where would Cheesecake trade...?

To the roost to watch and learn....chicken man...
CoBra(too)
note who the AU sellers are
Being extremely greatful to all for the profound discussions going on since friday and and the patient answers to Q's put to FOA a lot of ground has been covered in the aftermath of the shocking, but then extremely timely and informative gold sale charade by the BoE. The pityful size of BoE's gold hoard, by comparison to IMF or SNB, suggests that the FRB et al are running out of allies in the game of suppressing the GoP.
It must have been about three years since I've heard from a NY manager of a blue ribbon fund (vs hedge fd.)for the first time, that according to his opinion the US Tsy and FRB are calling in every favor from allies (and maybe blackmailing some too-NBS?)in order to keep the PoG from rising. He also mentioned the ballooning and ever expanding short position of speculative hedge funds, which according to his sources may have reached 8.000 tons 3years ago already.
Reflecting about the past sellers, excluding the Dutch and Belgium CB's for correcting their crippling debt burden, it has been Canada, Australia and now UK, while IMF and and the Swiss National Bank (some extra humanitarian pressure after all the talk about Nazi gold?), both probably never to transpire seems to be a lot of hot air in order to demoralize an already weak market. An intersting bunch, or do I read something into the group, which may be coincidental? Any thoughts welcome.
SteveH
Inflation
Peter Asher
From Exite News
Europe needs stable not strong euro - Ciampi


Updated 10:49 AM ET May 9, 1999

STRESA, Italy (Reuters) - Europe needs a stable euro, not a strong
one, Italian Treasury Minister Carlo Azeglio Ciampi said over the
weekend.

"Some people expected a strong euro but I always distinguish
between a strong euro and a solid one," Ciampi told reporters
Saturday on the sidelines of a conference in the lakeside town of
Stresa.

"I have never wanted a strong euro because in a situation where the
U.S. economy is expanding strongly while Europe has low growth, a
strong euro certainly does not help growth."

The euro has gradually depreciated against the dollar for much of its
short life, though it has stabilized and even picked up slightly in
recent sessions.

Beowulf
Christine
I'm glad you liked the post. I thought long and hard on what this BOE announcement meant. In essence I believe this was their last message to the shorts. They have blatantly knocked the price down one last time to give the shorts time to cover. Have the shorts listened? Apperantly not since the Commitment of Traders still shows an extremely large short position. Well, live and learn...and the shorts will probably only learn when they have sold everything they own to cover their mistakes.

I'm wondering, can you buy gold with a credit card? I'm tempted to get ten coins Monday and do what I did when I bought my computer. Everytime a credit card company called asking if I wanted a new card I said sure, and switched my balance over. I went for three months with basically a free loan and then paid it all off in one lump sum. It's tempting...VERY TEMPTING RIGHT NOW.
Peter Asher
Christine, try this fo a conspiracy
be tempted to lash out in anger or turn back the clock on its
economic reforms.>

How about bombing the Chinese Embassy to discourage them from participating in western style Capitalistic activities. Such as their Central Bank buying a lot of gold!
BC
During/After Dollar =>Euro Transition
Michael, Another, FOA, All:
I've been following the discussions on this site since its inception. I've found no other gold/financial discussion group of such high quality anywhere else on the Net. Thank you all, and especially Michael, Another and FOA, for this incredible opportunity to gain such critical knowledge, insight and wisdom in these "interesting times."

I know numerous discussions here have focused on suggestions for surviving various Y2K scenarios -- i.e.: accumulate stores of food, water, gold, and other day-to-day provisions to survive a relatively short-term crisis situation, and then "spend" gold and silver coins to purchase necessities as needed. But I don't recall (perhaps I missed it) much discussion about how to proceed on a day-to-day basis during and after the turmoil created by a global currency switch from US$ to Euro.

In light of FOA's recent comments (5/8/99; 20:16:12MDT - Msg ID:5772 mentioning $10,000 gold), the biggest question in my mind is converting gold back into spendable currency for day-to-day necessities. In other words, from having traded commodities, I've learned you need to have an exit strategy in mind before getting involved in the trade. So, from a practical day-to-day perspective for individual citizens holding hugely appreciated gold bullion and numismatics, what's the best way to convert that gold back into usable assets?

As I see it, the options are:
a. Go to local coin dealer and buy dollars with gold? But who would want to spend gold to purchase devalued, depreciating and/or virtually worthless US$?
b. Go to local coin dealer and buy foreign currency (e.g.: Euros) with gold? Will coin dealers have enough or any foreign currency to purchase this gold from me? Since no physical Euros exist (in the short term) that means electronic transfers only through banks. The last time I checked with U.S. banks, I could not find a bank that would open a foreign currency account within the U.S. borders.
c. Sell the gold to a bank? Many banks will not deal with gold from depositors.
d. Place the gold with a U.S. bank as collateral for a loan? Even if the bank did accept my gold, my option for currency is still a very-weak-to-worthless US$.
e. Trade gold/silver coins directly for goods and services. This implies a "black market" type of gold spending if someone tried to avoid paying capital gains taxes on hugely appreciated gold assets.
f. Pay bills electronically (i.e.: audit trail) through e-gold. But every time I pay a bill, I'm liquidating my hugely appreciated gold holdings on which capital gains taxes apply, thus creating a potentially serious bookkeeping challenge to meet tax obligations.

I would think/hope that the only logical step would be for the U.S. to eventually make the Euro a/the legal transactional currency in America. Since there is no physical Euro currency (in the short term), that means cashless transactions only.

Am I missing something here? Does anyone have any corrections or additional options?

Thanks. BC
Peter Asher
Steve----And all
Demonetized Gold is in the eye of the beholder. Remember our award winning exchange? Value in = value out. All it takes for gold to act like money, is for the Fiat currencies to appear unstable.

I'm looking here at a news letter from Donald C. Rowe, who claims to be "One of the top two money managers in the U.S. today." (Your gonna love this)

<<
---The Social Security system will be turned over to a new Quasi-public corporation with an independent board of trustees having powers comparable to those of trustees for private pension plans.----The $370 billion in S.S. taxes collected each year represents a pool of capital almost TRIPLE the size of the record $125 billion that flowed into mutual funds last year!----Stock prices have nowhere to go but up>>>

Quite a piece of work there. However just as you are wondering about a worst case scenario for gold, I have been wondering, when ever I hear about this S.S. plan, if this is the true force behind the current market mania. It's a pet hobby horse of Clinton, even if it's not going to happen, the possibility alone could explain the seemingly irrational onward and upward surge in market prices.

If it did come about, the latent devastation built is absolutely incredible. As things are now, a Crash or major correction would wipe out peoples (perceive) savings. Now imagine wiping out social security along with it. The wild thing that I see here is that the quantities of inflow would be so vast, the bubble could be pushed to unbelievable PE ratios before it burst. Then when it did there would be trillions of dollars of paper for sale and no buyers. Poof! All gone.

So, back to gold. It could be that the CBs are coming to believe that it's a Fiat world after all. However, Has there been one incident of a previously announced sale actually happening. In this last year we have gone from unknown liquidations to alleged intentions. This does not seem like the way to De-monetize gold. Only two reasons for the current gold game make any sense. One is the holding down of the POG to accumulate Gold. The other is to prevent the cataclysm that would result from the short covering now required due to the Hedge funds et-al having succumbed to the bigger fool syndrome on the down-side.
USAGOLD
BC
Many people ask the questions you ask.

We can learn how to proceed to some degree from the various breakdowns around the globe associated with the Asian currency disintegrations. In most of those countries, gold/currency exchanges cropped up to meet the needs of citizens/consumers as the currency crisis proceeded -- even in (or perhaps because of) the most dismal circumstances. This will occur universally during currency crises because enterprising individuals will attempt to capitalize on the currency problem ala free market economics -- some will be highly capitalized. In the various contagion countries, there was some direct barter involving gold for goods, i.e., the stories circulating about Indonesians exchanging British sovereigns for water. However, no matter what type of gold you own it will be difficult to use it in direct barter because most consumers and business people have no idea whether or not the gold you offer is genuine, non-counterfeit, etc. An intermediary/exchange will probably be necessary to make conversions. Up until any economy reaches full logistical breakdown, you will most likely be able to exchange your gold for whatever currency is being used at local or national gold dealers, coin dealers, banks (in some countries), etc. If the breakdown proceeds to crisis proportion and there is no reliable mail system, telephone, banking system, you will be forced to exchange gold in your local area with a local vendor. DO NOT EXCHANGE ANY MORE GOLD THAN YOUR DAILY OR WEEKLY NEEDS REQUIRE. We have learned from watching the various Asian and South American currency tragedies, that currency debasement comes in waves while gold maintains its purchasing power throughout the period. Don't be swayed by government efforts to make you believe that all will be OK. It is not likely that it will be. (Look at the gold/currency graphs of any Asian or South American currency that has been debased and you will see what I mean. We publish them from time to time in News & Views -- as a reminder.) By the way, I do not believe that we have to come to the end of the road with the currency breakdowns in Asia and South America. We are simply in a lull. And I am still deeply concerned that the contagion will reach American shores.

Some of the other strategic options you offer are open to discussion and their success is a matter of opinion and business/financial strategy, I will leave to the good judgement of the members of this table.

This is not meant to be a complete answer to your questions, but a beginning. I suggest you discuss these matters with a qualified gold broker to clarify your specific needs and how to meet them. You are touching on what could become some fairly complex scenarios. In the end we cannot prepare for every contingency, only for the ones each of us as individuals believe to be the most likely.
Peter Asher
Christine and all
Peter Asher
Possible motive for "Mistake"??




Meanwhile, Rep. Porter Goss, R-Fla., chairman of the
House intelligence committee, said the bombing shows
that America's intelligence capabilities are stretched too
thin and that such mistakes will happen as a result.

``I say it's a reaping of the harvest of the
underinvestment in our intelligence capabilities,'' Goss
said on ``Fox News Sunday.''

Goss's Senate counterpart, Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.,
agreed: ``We've been doing defense, which intelligence
is part and parcel of, on the cheap for about 13 straight
years, and now you're seeing the fruits of it.''

The administration is seeking about $29 billion for
intelligence programs in the 2000 budget, an increase of
about 9 percent. But critics say that proposed increase
comes after years in which intelligence spending has
effectively declined. Only a small portion of that budget
goes to the CIA: much is for spy satellites and military
intelligence.
Aragorn III
I believe it is fitting, as gold is the "Mother of all currency"...
to interject a brief thought at this forum in tribute to all the grand ladies that were burdened with the rearing of such a group as we have gathered here at this Round Table. They are to be remembered, and complimented on the product of their successful efforts.
Aragorn III
Applause for Peter and this post:
Peter Asher (5/9/99; 1:37:39MDT - Msg ID:5794)

<>

If this is an example of your typical "crash and burn', I should say that failure is a bitter pill, the taste of which you shall never know. Grade: A+
FOA
oil
el St.One (5/9/99; 3:31:32MDT - Msg ID:5795)
FOA
I know well your thought on Gold stocks, do you hold the same opinion about stocks of USA oil producers?


el St.One,
That is a good question. I have thought about this for some time. Of all the world corporate citizens, oil companies will have the worst time of it. The 1970s oil shock was induced by the US taking the dollar off the gold standard. It had nothing to do with supply and demand or the world running out of oil. Plainly, it was a shock of "pricing" oil to allow for the depreciation of the
currency. Some said oil rose far to much to have represented the resulting depreciation. Nonsense! Oil was priced far to low, at the time, because it was expected that the dollar would honor gold conversion at $41+/- and then slowly depreciate by changing the rate to $500+ over time. A form of official, sliding devaluation against gold, while maintaining international convertibility. It was then, just as today, that the "expectation" of receiving gold at a bargain rate that allowed for cheap oil. When the dollar broke from gold, it's oil conversion rate (oil price) had
to make for "past lost value" first, then rise to equate "current value". Nothing has changed, as oil has come down over these past years because official gold was made liquid through a paper exchange. The only difference is that gold is off the official exchange standard and trades in an
open, highly liquid market, LBMA. No one has to set a rate, you just buy it. Of course, all of this is yesterdays news, as the entire system is in evolution.
What does this have to do with oil stocks? The second oil shock is coming, and this one will not be about the dollar going off the gold standard. The shock will arrive in the form of world oil no longer being traded in dollars as the major settlement. If you think nations will run to grab "gold in the ground" during a currency crisis, wait till we see how they grab "oil in the ground" during a
"REAL" oil crisis.

A country can operate without gold during a hyperinflation for some time, but they cannot even defend themselves without oil. Think about it? FOA



Gandalf the White
canamami's Old Question
canamami -- you ask, and I am not sure that anyone answered, "Is the $100 Gold Maple Leaf a one oz. coin ?"
I am a bit confused, but the one oz. 0.9999 pure Au Canadian Gold Maple Leaf coin is labeled "50 Can$", if this answers the question. The Australian one oz. 0.9999 pure Au Nugget coin is labeled "100 A$". hope this helps.
<;-)
Aragorn III
My day to work back through many fine posts
I would like to draw special attention to something that is off-topic from gold, but remains the business of this Round Table. See this recent post to Golden Truth from FOA:

<Please understand that Another writes when he wants to offer Thoughts to the minds of others. He does read much of this and gets a "world perception" much the same way we do by talking to others... And consideration of each others thoughts is more valuable than wealth. You would be surprised at how many wealthy people hold that opinion.>>

Here FOA has given voice to my silent thoughts, even as I have at length endeavored to lead by example, particularly in extending a measure of courtesy in reference even outside this forum to those public individuals that might on the surface be perceived to thwart the desires of goldhearts. While it is never easy to recognize where allies may be found, it is all too easy to forestall a friendship with rashness. After the intrigue has passed, this forum may indeed find its halls swollen with notable emissaries having golden tales to share with all.
BC
$10,000 gold
Michael and FOA,

Michael, Thank you for your quick response re: selling gold during/after US$/Euro currency switch. I've been following the recommendations and news in News & Views as well.

When FOA and Another were talking about $3000 and $6000 gold, I thought: "What a great potential for profit." But with the mention of $10,000 gold, I got a gut feeling that this kind of huge appreciation would have to be just too big a temptation to the US Government as a source of tax revenue or confiscation.

I do remember FOA mentioning (10/10/98; 18:51:39MDT - Msg ID:494): "Physical gold purchase, contrary to most analysis, will be encouraged in America as an alternate form of wealth (401-K or retirement savings) because it will redirect money from going into the Euro."

FOA, from the perspective of seven months later, do you still think that the US government will encourage private gold ownership as an alternate form of wealth to keep money from going into the Euro. Especially with gold going to such an astronomical price of $10,000? Or has something happened to modify your viewpoint?

Thanks. BC
Richard, Oregon
FOA - You're still here!
FOA - Nice to hear you are still about this table of round. The light in the castle is very limited for viewing purposes but one's voice always comes through loud and (hopefully) clear.

FOA - Thanks for your direct response to my #5756. I do own a few 'numismatic' coins and yes I really appreciate the history and rarity of each. I have a few '08 $20 St.Gs. The '08s are special because I like TR and own the "American Experience" about his life and times as our president. "Art Form", yes, if they could only talk. Soon to be 100 years old.

Re: #5772 - "A great post" doesn't say enough from me. I already felt the BOE announcement on Friday was good news for GoldHearts, but you put it in perspective and gave me a glimpse of the 'bigger picture'. I also felt good that I, as a novice, was actually learning a lot here for the fact that I had already seen it for what it truly is, an outstanding buying opportunity. MK - I nominate #5772 for the Great Archive, any seconds! Thank again FOA. As always, it is a pleasure to hear your voice. Richard
Peter Asher
Aragorn III
Thank you for the validation. Coming from our most elegant of posters, it is heart warming indeed.
Richard, Oregon
BC - $ - Euro
BC (5/9/99; 10:53:27MDT - Msg ID:5807)
I believe MK had some great advice in his #5809 and wanted to share some thoughts also. I, like you, have had the same questions, what if . . . .. We can only speculate and therefore what happens, happens. Plan for the worst, as they say. Like MK stated, hang on to your gold. Don't exchange any more than you absolutely have to.

I do remember back in the mid '70s when silver went sky high. I lived in Phoenix at the time. I remember ads in the paper for washers and dryers, etc., for so many pre '64 silver quarters. I wished I had saved the newspaper. That was real then. I suspect, tenths, quarters, halves, and 1oz American Eagles would be readily exchangeable for major purchases or greenbacks for those smaller purchases. I find it hard to believe, at this point, that the US would do anything to encourage the use of the Euro over the $. I do know those that have something to sell will find a way for you to buy/barter/? for it. Just my thoughts!
SteveH
Clips from vronsky
WORTH REPEATING
(vronsky) May 09, 18:03

One particular thought in my last posting needs extra special emphasis. John Hathaway, portfolio manager of one of the world's most SUCCESSFUL gold funds (Tocqueville Gold Fund) says:

"When gold goes through various chart points, it's going to go through at $100, $200 clips, not a dollar a day."

One needs to be ALREADY ON BOARD when it starts...

SteveH
June gold now...
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.html
$283.20.

Above link a good read on gold.
Gandalf the White
Again FOA --- TIMING of the conversion of settlement of Oil
Within my lifetime ?
<;-)
Goldfly
Richard, Oregon - Msg ID:5818)
Richard, I had the same thought about FOA'a 5772, and I'll second the motion. But there's a problem....

Can we not scrounge up FIVE MORE VOTES for the Hall of Record?

GF
Julia
FOA'a 5772
I'll weigh in for FOA's post to be in the Hall of Records. Thanks FOA.
Julia
FOA
Reply
BC (5/9/99; 16:15:20MDT - Msg ID:5817)
$10,000 gold
Michael and FOA,

Michael, Thank you for your quick response re: selling gold during/after US$/Euro currency switch. I've been following the recommendations and news in News & Views as well.

When FOA and Another were talking about $3000 and $6000 gold, I thought: "What a great potential for profit." But with the mention of $10,000 gold, I got a gut feeling that this kind of huge appreciation would have to be just too big a temptation to the US Government as a source of tax
revenue or confiscation.

I do remember FOA mentioning (10/10/98; 18:51:39MDT - Msg ID:494): "Physical gold purchase, contrary to most analysis, will be encouraged in America as an alternate form of wealth
(401-K or retirement savings) because it will redirect money from going into the Euro."

FOA, from the perspective of seven months later, do you still think that the US government will encourage private gold ownership as an alternate form of wealth to keep money from going into the Euro. Especially with gold going to such an astronomical price of $10,000? Or has something
happened to modify your viewpoint?

Thanks. BC

Hello BC,
My post of #494 is taken from Another's Thoughts of some time ago. I am forced to agree, in that there will be no other political strategy. Indeed, that concept must be looking across the "valley of doom" and observing life in a changed economic environment. History demonstrates the
precedent of gold often taking the drivers seat as "the asset class of choice" when paper money is destroyed. Most likely, the leaders are forced to go along because politicians cannot govern when no one will use their money! Yes, I am aware that many inflations find the citizens still using the hyper inflated currencies, long after it's value has become nothing. Many South American countries come to mind in their present state. But, that action is just the force of "legal tender laws" expending their last inertia energies.

As for $10,000 gold, does this sound strange? If it does you have probably been listening to the advocates of "gold the commodity". This group of educated investors usually "voice" their beliefs in an endearing, logical light that shines from the "pocketbook". How else can one view gold when all of their money is in the mining industry? As present events demonstrate, the use of gold as a currency subjects it to wide value swings, outside the it's most recent history. Truly, "gold the money" is bad business for industry investors. Gold's downside bankrupts them and it's
upside negates them to mining taxes for the state! BC, all present gold operations have bet on gold maintaining a stable value, ($500??) in the realm of it's commodity function. That is why they cannot and do not want to discuss gold in a currency mode. None of them are prepared for that
occurrence. However, history shows that gold is valued far higher as a currency medium than a jewelry item.
Please read my FOA (5/9/99; 15:40:38MDT - Msg ID:5814). There you will find the same relationship of oil to gold as we find gold to currencies today.
Gold does not presently register it's true value in terms of things. That is because it still valued as a "backup / insurance" currency against the world paper reserve system. Yes, most of the wealth holders, today would like to see the dollar system operate, as is. For them it still offers the best of all worlds. In that environment, three fourths of humanity work to service the one fourth.
Were gold allowed to trade in the open as a currency value regulator, it's benefit to the vast majority of working people would create a "human" premium. That premium would price gold out of it's "store it in the back room insurance" value and into it's historic place as "the asset that
represents my life's work and dreams". A premium that says, "My families efforts are worth more than a paper account in the bank that is lent out for the use of entities I do not know"!
Yes, BC, the change from this present system of debtors will bring $10,000 gold, at the least.

thanks for reading FOA
TYoung
A Believer? Not really...but...it is time...past THOUGHTS...
Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 16:44
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
We will talk today. Have your coffee or tea and bring a clear mind, as we will think of oil and gold. Yes, we will think thoughts not spoken for simple persons.
Later I will post, then we will truly consider.
Today, I stood in the sand and looked for life in the heavens. But even the stars offer no life as a strong body and a full mind. It is a fine night for a man of small thought, for he can consider GOLD.
************************************************************

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 20:45
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
For those of simple thought, such as I, gold is good to own.
But, for those of need for reason, read from one who speaks to me:
The Cornering of Gold!
The final outcome of "Too Much Oil", "Too little Gold" and "Worldwide Digital Currencies".
For years the governments could create currency out of nothing. But, during the last eight years, the modern currency systems have taken the final step. As digital charges in a computer, they have become but "emotional thoughts" of trading value. This is to say, "a currency unit exists only during the moment of trade". During this time, when real things are in transit, paper currency has value as an expected "trade completion". It exists as a human thought. Complete the transaction and the thought is gone, the currency unit dies.
Think about it? If for a time the world commerce stopped. All would live from what they had for, say a week. During this week, all currencies and the debts that back them would not exist! Without trade, modern currencies have no use, no value, no purpose.
During our modern age, a currency can be anything. Corn, lamps, cars, tables, anything could be used as a concept for a digital currency. You see, it exists in concept only. Even gold could be used as modern money. The real item is not used, only the concept of "how it would be used during the transaction of commerce". "Real value is not needed for modern money, as it is only used as a trading unit"!
What does all of this have to do with oil and gold? For most people, nothing. But for some people, everything! You see, some persons do not want to hold an "operating business" and the present value that represents, as their wealth. Nor do they want to hold encumbered assets or debts of others. Wealth, to these people, is not represented by a "digital trading unit of commerce".
History has shown how many persons, or groups of persons, have tried and failed while trying to corner a commodity. Greed was always the factor, as acquiring real wealth to pass on to family or country was never the aim. Using paper currencies ( or debts of the same ) to purchase these commodities, always brought on the undoing of the scam. During some years, even gold was used as a purchasing unit, as gold was the currency of that time.
But, today we come to a different period, with a different factor and circumstance. For during no period of history has an entity used a commodity to corner another commodity! The intent is not to "corner", but the result will be the same. This action is coming about because of a gross, huge mismatch of the value of gold and oil! We are not talking about the price of these items ( in any currency ) . We speak of the total amount of physical gold, worldwide and the total amount of oil worldwide. During the last twenty years, the world has made oil an absolute necessity for life as we know it. During the same time, gold has been degraded to a "kind of commodity that we may need sometime but, I'm not sure". With the public, government and the business community holding these thoughts, it is easy to understand which item is needed first and which would be dumped. In this day, people would sell gold for oil, no contest!
Consider the amount of oil that is used daily. Consider the future value that this consumption places on reserves in the ground. Compare this to the amount of gold consumed daily. Notice I said "consumed daily", not "traded daily". Clearly, the consumption of oil compared to the consumption of gold places a much higher value on oil reserves than gold reserves. With no replacement for the use of oil ( at present to lower prices ) and no "needed" use for gold in today's thought, we have the ingredients for a mismatch in value of epic proportions!
The supply of oil was a problem in the 70s. Several nations actually cut off the supply to make a political point. Many thought that the "embargo" was an attempt at "cornering" the oil market. We may never know the true reasons for the large increase in the price of oil, but one thing is clear. The value of oil in today's economy is of far greater importance to maintaining present "asset values" than at any time in the past. Today, the future value of all commerce is "well bid" into every asset value! Without oil in good supply , at a currency price that allows a reasonable lifestyle, all assets would lose much relative value.
This "need" for supply is not lost to governments or their Central Banks. No single asset class or segment of the economy, by itself is more valuable than the supply of oil. This brings us back full circle, to the problem of "digital currencies" and the "mind set" of much of the simple ( and rich ) third world persons. To many of these people, wealth is the surplus of life's work that you pass on after death. Currency is something you, spend, trade or hold for a few years. It isn't wealth.
Gold ( and silver ) is "on the list", so to speak.
This same mindset creates a worry in the back of many a mind in the oil states. It is clear to most, that even a small amount of gold in the asset mix, makes one appear "less western" and therefore "less foolish" when the concept of value and currency are discussed. But, the problem has always been that oil is "so large" in relation to gold that any attempt to convert, even a portion of ones assets creates a distortion in the markets. Of further concern is that; everyone knows that western minds don't like or want gold, but if they think you like it they will trade it up in price for the sake of "sticking it to you".
Enter the world of "paper gold".
Yes, gold just like currencies has been "digitized". If you brought gasoline, made from oil sold under $20/bl, you are part of this system! For just as the "digital currencies" are created for trading only, paper gold was created for the trade of oil. In a very broad sense, it was created as an "extra" or "kicker" to allow the purchase of small amounts of cheap gold in return for a full supply of oil. In reality, this gold paper represents the future production of gold ( from the ground ) to balance the reserves of oil ( also in the ground ) . The huge amount of "paper gold" traded and outstanding today is now in excess of all the gold in existence above ground! In essence, it is of the same value as the currencies, "the thoughts of nations, blowing in the wind". The Central Banks gave value to this paper by selling and lending some of their gold stocks. But, as economies became hooked on cheap oil, and demanded more of the same, these same CBs had no choice but to use fractional reserve gold lending" to pump the gold market.
Now we approach the final act.
There is one oil state that no one will play for a fool. The CBs will sell all of their gold or the nations will nationalize all mines and operate them at a loss. One way or another, most of the paper gold market will be honored. Why? Because oil will bid for gold if they do not! We are not talking about an oil embargo or rising oil prices. Indeed, oil will become very cheap for those that can supply physical gold. This deal will not require the agreement of all oil states. Only one can start this, the others will gladly follow.
A large oil producer, with plenty of reserves and unused capacity, can say: We now value gold at $10, $20 or $30,000/oz.. That is the rate we will use to sell oil. We will go to "full" production and offer at $10.00us/bl.. Pay us in physical gold and USD ( or EUROs ) as a 50% mix to the above rate to equal $10/bl..
It would be a deal like none other! Oil, worldwide, would drop to $10.00/bl and every economy would do very well, IF they had gold. All gold would immediately be arbitraged to the above prices thereby creating a "world oil currency" large enough to handle oil. This creating of a new "specialized currency" will be the result of the first "commodity corner" that ever succeeded!
But what of the current currency/debt structure? We will cover that in a later article.
************************************************************
So, noble round table...how much of your worth will you wager on the merit of these THOUGHTS. Will the last twenty years be continued? Will you enter your GOLDEN years a pauper? Tell me not where your words are but where your wealth sits. Yes, alas poor gold (and silver) I know them well...

Put thou money where thou mouth is? This paper market has served me well...know when to hold and when to fold. BTW...a contrary THOUGHT here is, well, not tolerant1.

Away to watch gold....rocket...or... plummet. This world is damned to instant gratification and...soon, I fear...instant anguish. PMSP

Don't really buy into the oil thing but fiat currency is the greatest falsehood put upon people by governments...you just have to time the end of the "happy trails" to you! Do not "Bet your life" on when it ends.

Tom
FOA
Comment
Richard, Oregon (5/9/99; 16:46:45MDT - Msg ID:5818)
FOA - You're still here!

Richard,
Thank you for reading. Yes, I'm in and out for short reads. The world is offering a large plate of "political maneuvering" for us to digest! FOA
FOA
Another's past Thoughts!
TYoung (5/9/99; 19:16:03MDT - Msg ID:5827)

Hello TYoung,
As one reads those Thoughts from a little over a year ago, can it now be explained "Why" the ECB and the BIS forced the agreement of gold into the Euro? Western political factions never thought the Euro would trade one to one against the dollar, much less higher than that ratio. Has some entity outside the European arena now given backing to the Euro? Who does hold so much of that gold paper? In time, my friend, we will all know not only where our wealth sits, but how well it sits. FOA
Aragorn III
FOA (5/8/99;--Msg ID:5772)...thank you for this remarkable post
It seems to be a popularly held view that this latest action by the BOE was yet another in a string of official actions to give assistance to the institutions that are now caught on the short side of gold. I do not see it with that same perspective, and perhaps you might settle the score.

It seems that these hedge funds and others on the short side shall indeed be dealt with as may be required for the general integrity of what might be salvaged from the current financial system. But, it does not appear that they "call the tune" as so many others might suggest. Is it not moreso that the efforts are to settle--to the greatest possible extent--that side of the contracts on which we find the gold owners "concerned" by the apparent absence of their gold? Isn't it truly the "long" side that calls the tune...such is the power and majesty of gold over paper?
Christine
@FOA--Inconsistencies, pieces that don't fit
First of all, I sincerely do not want to offend in saying this. I believe you have much economic as well as world insight. I have long wondered about your motives for posting. I do believe you have some kind of inside knowledge that most of us here do not have. I have often wondered if your purpose could be to mislead in some way, or if you simply don't have all the pieces, although you clearly have many more pieces than the rest of us. I am now simply thinking you have pieces, but not all of them.

These are some of the inconsistencies in my head that I look to explain:
1. It does appear that the Saudi's may be re-aligning with Iran for defense, and moving away from the US. This would support a Middle-East re-alignment with the euro.
2. The price of oil was held down for 2 1/2 years, doing much damage to the US oil industry, and reducing our ability to respond to oil cartel pressures on price or supply. Also, with all the refinery fires, I feel that a US gasoline shortage is being currently set up. The US power structure appears to be orchestrating this component of what is unfolding. ie. US gasoline price hikes and potential shortages now unfolding appear to be orchestrated from the inside, not by the euro/BIS or the Middle East.
3. It appears that US/IMF/BIS/Euroland are all complicit together at the moment in holding the euro down and the US dollar up so as to make their currency exchanges from dollar to euro at best rates.
4. As far as I know, Euroland is a block of countries without much natural energy or gold in the ground.
5. The countries not in Euroland have a wealth of energy and gold in the ground.
6. I do agree it is logical that some oil nations are unhappy with US dollars and have insisted upon a gold payment, and this is a factor in what is going on.

As I have stated before,IMHO there is much too much that is not accounted for in BIS vs IMF hypothesis as the sole explanation for what is going on. A devaluation of the dollar and transition to the euro is only step 1.
FOA
Reply
Aragorn III (5/9/99; 20:21:23MDT - Msg ID:5830)
FOA (5/8/99;--Msg ID:5772)...thank you for this remarkable post


Aragorn III,
The BOE does want to help the LBMA to some extent. Politically the Central Bank must attempt to support them, after all look at who the Bullion banks are! I think it would be understood between these entities, that if England does run for the Euro at the expense of the dollar, these gold merchants are dead in the water. Yes, political favors will require BOE to offer gold, even if it is a drop in the bucket, but as a soldier will fire his last round in a lost battle, so will "The Bank" ship it's last ounce of gold. This is serious stuff and the Friday news shows just where
they are going.

True, the merchants are only the middle man in this "war of giants", but the US and it's dollar also need this market to function if they are to keep the paper gold longs from "wholesale" jumping ship also. Right now the big longs are balanced, if they lose contract delivery from a failing LBMA, it's made up in a soaring oil and gold price held through secure ECB commitments. They "called the tune" a long time ago when big money started supporting paper gold in dollar settlement. The gold market is now locked and has but to react to the shortage of physical gold priced in dollars. As we run out of major CBs that offer to unload gold, so does the dollar run out of time. The BOE may have been the last?

However, this ship is going to sink slowly if for no other reason than the IMF / dollar factions are still trying to save it. In this environment, investors (TYoung?) need patience and an un-leveraged position as this major act unfolds.
FOA


SteveH
I just sent this to all my friends (june gold now $282.50)
Chicken little or just being friendly?

LAST CHANCE TO BUY GOLD AT LOW

By Steven Jon Kaplan

Gold Mining Outlook www.goldminingoutlook.com.

5 p.m. EDT, Friday, May 7, 1999.

----------------

Buy more gold.

Although the Bank of England announced early Friday
morning that they are selling 415 of their 715 tonnes
of gold, this is likely to be one of the last major
gold sales by central banks. The worldwide recession
recovery, combined with a strong commodities rally,
leaves inflation on the rise, as epitomized by a huge
gap between short-term rates and long-term rates in
almost all developed economies.

This sale is thus equivalent to Fidelity Investments
deciding to sell shares in a very profitable company
with a high growth rate and a low P/E. Although such an
unloading would initially depress the price, especially
if some thought that Vanguard and Strong would follow
suit, it would have no effect on the company's
fundamentals, and would therefore be completely
reversed over a short period of time.

Similarly, the sale of gold by a particular entity does
not alter the relationship of the yellow metal in the
world financial system.

The Journal of Commerce commodities index, a reliable
indicator for many years, is displaying its highest
growth rate in more than 1-1/2 years.

Use the opportunity to buy gold when everyone else is
selling it. Already many shares have bounced from
extreme lows set during intraday trading. This is a
gift for those who feared they may have missed the
rally, or who were waiting for a pullback before
committing additional funds.

As I had said on the very day before the yellow metal
started its spring rally, the more that everyone else
is gloomy, the more that one should be buying gold with
both hands and both feet.

Usually I don't like to criticize financial analysts,
knowing how difficult it is to make financial
predictions. Special mention, however, must be given to
the gold gurus at Goldman Sachs, who issued a sell
recommendation on gold shares Friday morning almost at
the very minute that gold bottomed below $280. Not only
is this advice one very important day late, but any
clients who take them seriously would be selling at
what may well turn out to have been the last best
buying opportunity for many years. Perhaps they're
still a little hung over from their recent IPO party.

According to the latest survey from Market Vane,
bullish sentiment on the U.S. dollar is at an unusually
high level of 84 on a scale from 0 to 100. Even if it
were not for the record trade gap and the fact that
corporate insiders are heavily short the greenback
especially versus the Swiss franc, German deutschmark,
Japanese yen, and British pound sterling, this would be
reason enough to bet against the U.S. dollar. First, as
interest rates for bank CDs and money market funds
fell, people shifted their assets from safe investments
into the U.S. stock market. Then, as the recession hit
the third world, people shifted their investments from
emerging markets into the U.S. stock market. Now, as
the world is recovering from recession, rapid growth is
forcing up long-term interest rates worldwide. Thus,
bonds are collapsing, which -- you guessed it -- has
caused investors to sell bonds to put their money into
the U.S. stock market. Even if U.S. equities were not
already at hypereuphoric overvaluations, a combination
of rising inflation, increasing long-term interest
rates, and the ready alternative of equities around the
world with far superior growth rates and infinitely
lower P/E ratios will eventually induce a core of
intelligent investors to switch out of U.S. equities.

Do not wait for everyone else to act before you do, as
there will be a mad rush for the exits. The average
investor, thoroughly drunk on U.S. equities, is not
even aware that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury
is at its highest level since June 9, 1998. When
interest rates are high enough, some money leaves the
stock market for the bond market. In addition, higher
rates increase the costs of borrowing, lowering
corporate profits.

In a sign that the gold share market is returning from
the doldrums, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange announced
Monday that they are planning to launch a junior mining
sector later in the late summer of 1999. According to
Reuters News, "shares in resource companies listed in
Johannesburg have soared over the past six weeks on a
growing belief around the globe that bombed-out
commodity cycles were in line for a turnaround in the
next 12-18 months, spurred by a recovery in demand from
Asian economies."

-END-




FOA
Reply
Christine (5/9/99; 20:30:48MDT - Msg ID:5831)

Christine,
Thank you for reading and thinking out loud. This forum would be blank if we all saw the world through the same camera. No offense taken.

By your numbers:

1. Agree!

2. Partial agreement. At first, the falling oil prices (over many years during the 90s) was a shared goal by all. This included the US, Europe and most of the dollar world. I don't think the powers that drove this think like James Bond, but it could have been a dollar trap from the beginning. That is the current perception. Yes, the long effect was to damage the viability of the local US oil
industry, but again, they didn't intend to drive gold (and therefore oil) that low in the beginning. It was only after the dollar was trapped by paper gold that it needed ever lower physical prices to keep a chain reaction from spiking gold. This in turn drove the dollar higher in world markets
creating the asset bubble in America today. True, I do think the US players are sending out "readings" to the public to get them ready for higher oil prices and the price inflation that will create. However, they are being pushed in this direction by the reality of a changing dollar reserve system. The same reality created by the Euro
faction. NO, the refinery fires are a sad loss of accidental consequence.

3. Disagree! Recent history will dictate the animosity between the BIS and the US! Please don't take my word for it. Mr. Mosel (kitco) is well educated on this, ask him? Or, read up some of the 1960 / early 1970s money wars that were fought. Old bankers never forget!

4. True, and they have outlived America for how long? Great nations are made from great people, not resources. The US did not get where it's at because it had gold. Gold was delivered to this country (far more than was mined) to buy it's economic productivity.

5. Same answer.

6. Yes.

As Mr. Another would say " We watch this new gold market together, Yes?"! Christine, more will come to light and prove us not right or wrong, but observant.

FOA
FOA
Time to go.
Thanks All!
Aragorn III
FOA, thank you for the answer to my inquiry
It has helped to clarify my thoughts on this matter, and two others beside. Thanks for your guidance as we watch these events unfold.

All, it was approximately six months ago that I cautioned the realm of national and international finance was not one that developed along tedious trends easy for all to see and anticipate. The big policy decisions come, instead, as "lightning in the night", and you will not know the night in advance. We have had our first gentle reminder. Perhaps it was fitting that it was I nearly struck by the BOE 'bolt from the blue as I stood on the threshold at that early hour last Friday. In this case, the announcement was a bright flash, but the thunderclap was scant more than a slammed door. How many more before the big one that signals the Storm of Change, none can say. Some may work in your favor, but do not "bet the farm" on such uncertain help. It is better to prepare your "storm shelter" while supplies last than to wait for the sale and get caught outside with naught but a parasol.

got gold?
Voyager
Aragorn III
Good evening, you are up late tonight.

It is my understanding that before the U.S. can sell gold, it must be approved by Congress. Is this correct? Does the
BOE have ath authority to deplete the gold reserves of England in such an underhanded way? Is there no voice of dissent in England?
Cage Rattler
Market Vane for US dollar
n/aDoes anyone have the Market Vane figures for the US dollar for the previous three weeks? I would like to compare them vs SteveH's post yesterday. TIA.
Usul
(No Subject)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials2.html FOA's message 5834 replied "Recent history will dictate the animosity between the BIS and the US!" to Christine's
5831: "It appears that US/IMF/BIS/Euroland are all
complicit together..."

According to Dennis Birch's Resource Stock Digest, Feb.
1998:
"A definite coolness exists between the BIS and the United
States. This goes back to the Bretton Woods Conference
in 1944, held to set up the machinery for resuming world
business after WWII. Even though this conference
established the gold-backed US dollar as the only reserve
currency, the US did everything it could to torpedo the BIS
and give sole power to the US sponsored IMF..."

There is more at Gold-Eagle (see The Sting & Ponzi Scheme! - Dennis Birch at the above link). I don't know if
this is the same content as the Feb. 1998 Digest (which I
can't seem to find any more)
Tomcat
Voyager: Dissent in England there no voice of dissent in England?

You asked: Does the BOE have ath authority to deplete the gold reserves of England in such an underhanded way? Is
there no voice of dissent in England?

There was a post at Kitco, on Sun. (possibly Sat.) which reprinted a news article claiming that their is dissent in the Parliment, I believe. I would post a url but I can't get over to Kitco right now. As I read the article, I remember thinking that such dissent could come in quite handy and act to cancel the auction.
HLime
What World $10k gold?


Ole Harry has learned to never argue with an insider. If FOA predicts $10K gold
then it enters the realm of the possible. With the Au I already have and a
proportional move in Ag I would be a millionaire. BFD. What would a $10k gold
world be like? Just what gut wrenching economic dislocations would we have
to go through?

I have accumulated Au/Ag for three reasons:
1. Y2k - I fear the worst and I have 20+ years from programming to Data
Base Administrator to back up my convictions. I want something
of value on the other side to rebuild with.
2. The US Government - I like having my assets under my control and not
known to the government or spouses. I however am not an idiot.
I have left instructions on location and disposal to a trusted sibling
half a continent away.
3. Leverage - At some point Au/Ag will explode in value ahead of the Y2K
panic. Some of my stash will come out of their hidey holes to buy
more supplies.

On the way to $10k gold, item number three is most important to me. My concern
is that along with $10k gold will be $50 cans of soup. Another thought to ponder:
if you can make 30 times your money on internet stock and have to talk of an
excessive profits tax, then why would that type of return in Au be different?
Such thoughts to ponder when my mind is focused on a certain creek.
Only four more weeks!

Harry (I will sell no penicillin before its time) Lime
el St.One
$10,000 GOLD
FOA Thanks for your thinking on oil, I was guessing along that theme.

Unless I am missing the point, Gold is not going up to 10,000 an ounce. The dollar is coming down to 10,000 per ounce of Gold.
As for using Gold for barter, most of my weekly trips to the food market cost over 1/4 ounce of Gold. Maybe after the revolution ( bloodless I hope ) the same 1/4 ounce will buy 2 or 3 weeks worth of food. If oil ( gas ) is in short supply 1 trip every 2 or 3 weeks may be a luxury.
It is late el
SteveH
June gold now ...
$282.00. Still London price.
SteveH
(No Subject)
US Mint sale of gold and silver from beginning of year MONTH
ONE) HALF QUARTER TENTH TOTAL
( oz./#coins)
JANUARY 208,500 / 208,500 15,500 / 31,000 18,000 / 72,000 39,000 / 390,000 281,000 / 701,500
FEBRUARY 79,500 / 79,500 19,500 / 39,000 18,000 / 72,000 27,000 / 270,000 144,000 / 460,500
MARCH 184,500 / 184,500 18,000 / 36,000 18,000 / 72,000 48,500 / 485,000 269,000 / 777,500
APRIL 126,500 / 126,500 5,000 / 10,000 11,000 / 44,000 18,500 / 185,000 161,000 / 365,500
MAY 18,500 / 18,500 0 / 0 500 / 2,000 1,000 / 10,000 20,000 / 30,500


Silver

MONTH ONE
( oz./#coins)
JANUARY 1,195,000 / 1,195,000
FEBRUARY 149,000 / 149,000
MARCH 718,000 / 718,000
APRIL 716,000 / 716,000
MAY 0 / 0

Conclusion: lower shipments as time progresses, especially for gold. Meaning? Because I don't know the demand side. We should be hearing about gold shortages of US Eagles if demand is greater than supply.
Gandalf the White
Republic NY Bank --- SOLD
Bought by an European Bank. See Bloomberg Web Page for details.
<;-)
(did I scoop you Townie?)
Aragorn III
Voyager and gold sales
Even with the independence of the BOE, it does surprise me that gold may so easily be mobilized from the UK Treasury without much necessary blustering and official business by Parliment. I cannot cite for you the U.S. statute that blocks this level of "freedom" without a Congressional act, but I shall investigate. Perhaps another poster has the answer and is now poised at the keyboard?

el St. One,
you are good to recognize that $10,000 gold is built greatly upon the mathematics of a dollar value that is diminished in regard to all things. But while prices will rise proportionally for bread, and wine, and cheese as their function and importance remains as they ever have been, the price for gold will rise in a much greater proportion. This comes with the understanding that while today gold is viewed (and priced) by many as only an "extra" in the play, gold will be seen to play a leading role tomorrow. This changing role will redefine its value by more than the price calculated from a weaker dollar. A day in the Sun for goldhearts, to be sure.
TownCrier
HSBC Buys N.Y.-Based Republic For $10.3 Billion
BC
Richard, Oregon: $ - Euro
Richard, Oregon (5/9/99; 17:18:18MDT - Msg ID:5820)
Hi, Richard.

I don't worry too much about the future. The future seems to always take care of itself. I try to focus on the here and now. Kind of like steering a big ship. You have to be aware of what's coming up a mile or so ahead so you can have enough time to steer the boat away from trouble. But the real important considerations -- adequate fuel, no leaks, a working radio, staying on course -- are what you have control over now, so take care of them.

I plan to hang on to the few gold coins I have to the very end. They'll be the last to go.

You mentioned: "I find it hard to believe, at this point, that the US would do anything to encourage the use of the Euro over the $."

If oil settlement switches to Euros and the dollar declines significantly (FOA: 5/9/99; 15:40:38MDT - Msg ID:5814), I assume we'll (as a country) be forced to buy Euros to pay for oil - at least imported oil. Over the years, other countries around the world have been forced to use US$ to one degree or another, and have even had their economies seriously damaged because of the US dollar's liabilities.

At the same time, strong nationalistic sentiments in the US will probably fuel strong resistance to the idea of adopting the Euro as an official currency. But the realities of economic pressures and the collision of unexpected events can force people to do things they'd rather not do. For example: Who would have thought a few of years ago that we'd impeach a president for lying about sex?

I keep seeing more and more news stories extolling the virtues of one-world government, and one common currency. Most recently the news story posted here (5/6/99) about the Bilderbergers meeting in June. Here's the quote about their goals taken from that news story:

"The agenda for the meeting is said to include a 'globilization summit', during which nations which cling tenaciously to their sovereign identities will be denounced by its leadership. The principal feature of Bilderberg is that it seeks one global government, (a structure similar to the European Union), while counteracting nationalist sentiment is supposedly its greatest battle. Renewed calls for the United Nations to be able to directly tax all people of the world is said to be another major topic to be tabled for discussion in Sintra."

The Bilderbergers includes some of the most powerful people on the planet.

It may not be right around the corner, but looking ahead, the Euro as U.S. currency might not seem too far fetched.

Thanks. BC
TownCrier
Chinese Fury Turns Kosovo Crisis Global
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990510/wl/yugoslavia_395.htmlTaken from a Monty Python skit? "...our maps simply did not show the Chinese embassy anywhere in that vicinity"
TownCrier
Milosevic Positive On New Conditions-Russia
TownCrier
Gold: Setting a standard
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_337000/337802.stmOdd, to offer this on the day of the UK Treasury announcement.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
$ - Euro
Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
$ - Euro
Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
$ - Euro
Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
$ - Euro
Perhaps the Euro could be renamed in order to make it more acceptable to $-based citizens.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
$ - Euro
My apologies for the multiple post - local difficulties.
TownCrier
Banker loses friends' millions
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/your_money/newsid_339000/339873.stmIs the market a sure thing when even the pros can't get it right?
TownCrier
British support for euro falls
Britian seems to stand alone:
The 11 countries which adopted the euro have grown increasingly happy about the new currency since its introduction, while most businessmen in European countries outside EMU wished they had signed up to its launch.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: All-Important Inflation Numbers End of Week
MARKET ANALYSIS (5/10/99): Gold continued to weather the aftershocks of the
Bank of England's (BOE) gold auction announcement last week while the rest of the
markets geared up for what might be some pretty dicey U.S. inflation numbers toward the
end of the week. Economists surveyed by CBS warns that we could see a PPI number as
high as .5% and CPI at .4% as rising oil prices begin to effect the pricing of other goods
and services. The dollar is down in early trading against most major currencies this
morning, including the British pound. We will be watching the pound closely in the weeks
ahead as priced in both the dollar and gold. If recent history is an indicator, the pound could
be in for a rough ride. Historically gold sales have been a precursor to currency weakness.
The resumption of gold's decline followed an uneventful, but restless night overseas. Asia
weighed in on the quiet side. London traded sideways with an eye toward the COMEX
open. A U.S. Treasury spokesman quoted by Reuters said that the United States is not
thinking about selling any of its 261 million ounce gold reserve.

Mitsui's Andy Smith offers the following insight which offers a possible tie into the BOE
announcement:

"The exit of several famous but now dis-illusioned interbank players from the stadium and
the relegation of others to the cheaper seats (ostensibly for a more focussed view) raise the
question: can this 'beautiful game' for producers continue (tight spreads, intense
competition on hedging service from banks)? Watch for yellow cards on credit lines to
miners? Teamed with new derivative accounting rules coming into play this summer (from
the Financial Accounting Standards Board -- FASB, making the pass through from options
to P&L swings more obvious) the transfer to 'plain vanilla' hedge structures could be
accelerated."

Smith's observations were published in his Monthly (April 99) Precious Metals' Report
well before the BOE announcement. Could the BOE announcement be tied to settling hedge
and derivative accounts before the new FASB rules go into effect? We are beginning to see
an international trend toward accounting for derivative gains and losses on P&L statements
instead of carrying them at cost. This could have a major impact on financial institution
balance sheets, thus the concern. Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal reburied to square the books before these rule take effect? There is no way of
knowing for sure of course, but I am certain we are going to see all sorts of explanations
for this ill-timed auction by the Bank of England and I wouldn't shelve this one without
some careful consideration as at least one of the reasons for BOE's surprise action. (By the
way, I do not buy the proposition that the auction is a means to preparing the British
finances for entrance into the European Union. Once the sale is taken into account, UK will
have less than 10% of its reserves in gold while the rest of the EU has about 30% of its
reserves in gold -- if various published reports on reserve holdings are to be believed.
These sales, and most particularly the press release issued by the British central bank itself,
reveal the picture of a financially weakened Britain, and one that could not pull its weight in
the EU.)

More later.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
USAGOLD
Links and correction...
Today's Report has supportive links which do not show up at the FORUM. Please go to the Daily Market Report if you want to follow the links.

Also, the sentence:

"Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal reburied to square the books before these rule take effect?"

Should read:

Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal "required" to square the books before these rule take effect?

Although I must say that "reburied" also works, since this metal will never see the light of day.
TownCrier
Prices creeping up in UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_339000/339865.stmSame to be expected in U.S.? Could be...
Of course, you can expect them to say that if oil is ignored, everything is fine.
goldnbones
Analyses please!
Anyone feel like analysing this one?

FOCUS-Central bankers see global economic upturn
09:08 a.m. May 10, 1999 Eastern
By Alice Ratcliffe BASLE, Switzerland, May 10 (Reuters) - Central bankers from major countries agreed on Monday that the global financial crisis seemed to have abated amid more upbeat growth forecasts,

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said.

Strong growth in North America and an Asian upturn should help the global economy stabilise this year and grow around two percent, he told reporters after a meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 (G10) with some other countries attending.

``The global financial crisis appears to have eased as expectations about future growth have improved,'' the German central bank chief said.

``That does not mean that all things are under control, but after months of successive downward revisions, the consensus forecast for global growth in 1999 has now stabilised around two percent,'' he added.

Central bankers from China, Australia, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia joined the G10 for their regular monthly meeting at the Bank for International Settlements in Basle.

Tietmeyer said improved expectations for North America were the main reason for the more optimistic outlook that has emerged after the worst global crisis since World War Two.

``Behind that (consensus) is especially the improved expectation for North America, with the growth clearly above three percent expected for this year,'' he said. Australia and New Zealand should also grow above three percent, he added.

Contrary to earlier forecasts, some Asian countries also seemed to be rebounding, so overall prospects were looking up.

``All in all we see the situation now a little bit better,'' Tietmeyer said.

But he stressed that Europe still needed to press ahead with structural reforms, Japan had to address underlying problems

``despite some better short-term outlook'' and crisis-hit emerging markets had to continue the reform process.

In this situation, stability had to be the key element for monetary policy, Tietmeyer said.

``Of course we discussed what monetary policy can do in this context. We all agreed monetary policy has to contain monetary stability. That is the point.''

Tietmeyer did not specifically address concerns in financial markets that brisk U.S. growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating and spawning inflationary pressure.

The central bankers in Basle also discussed developments on stock and bond markets and noted with satisfaction that borrowing costs for emerging-market countries were coming down.

``Especially we have realised -- which is important for the financial flows to the emerging markets -- that spreads for the emereging markets are coming down, have already come down, and (that) is a positive development,'' he said.

On other subjects, Tietmeyer said no central banks present had announced any plans to sell gold in the wake of Britain's surprise news last week it would gradually liquidate more than half its gold reserves.

``We are all of the opinion gold will remain in future an important reserve asset for central banks,'' Tietmeyer said.

Joining the growing rank of official sellers, Britain's Treasury said it would cut its gold reserves to 300 tonnes from the present 715 tonnes.

The G10 comprises Belgium, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States, as well as Switzerland.

USAGOLD
Trying to do too much at once this morning:
Let me try to get this sentence right:

"Could the BOE gold sale could be providing physical
metal 'required' to square the books before these rule take effect?"

Should read:

Could the BOE gold sale be providing physical
metal "required" to square the books before these rules take effect?

Oh boy.......
beesting
The modern name for SLAVE is---Taxpayer.
Since Fridays announcement of BOE Gold sales I have been trying to figure out,what the Bank of England would receive in equitable payment for their Gold,if the sale is indeed consummated.
I am reminded of FOA's famous statement:
Even the well written history of paper money, with all it's chronicled destruction cannot convince modern man that Gold can and will fully demoney paper! In our present lifetime.

So the question is,if you were the treasurer of The Bank of England what would you take as an equitable exchange for your Gold?
They may take Euro's, they may take U.S.$ or they may take a combination of both. I think the world knows these currencies will lose purchasing power in the future due to inevitable inflation which has historically accompanied paper money.
As FOA suggested, an extremely valuable future asset is, "oil in the ground".That may be a good trade,(back to oil for Gold)
However,in my opinion,and I hope I'm wrong,the trade is for the fruits of the workers labor.Taxation,with Governments working hand in hand with world Bankers is slowly going to put ALL assets under the control of the Banks and Governments. Non-private ownership of assets is slavery!!!
Lets give a Websters Dictionary meaning of a slave:
A person who has lost control of himself and is dominated by something or someone.
Lets ask ourselves,do we know anyone that is dominated by our present paper monetary system? It's called,bills,bills,bills.
Again in my very humble opinion,ownership of untaxed Gold or the equivalent,whatever that might be,is liberty-another name our forefathers used for freedom!!
Sorry MK for coming on so strong,but I think this had to be said...........beesting
nugget101
Interesting article for conspiracy addicts
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744611.htmlThis tends to reaffirm what many have suspected.
TownCrier
IMM currencies trade mixed early, key contracts up
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/v0.htmlCurrency and the state of affairs.
koan
parting company
The headline news may well be how well silver is holding up. Are the white metals going to part company with their brother? I always liked silver better than gold as it can do anything gold can do and then some. It is curious though how the comex silver stocks seems stuck in the 75 to 80 mil range. The silver stocks are actually advancing today. Maybe some of the speculative interest in gold will transfer to silver. Any significant speculative accumulation of silver is going to exacerbate the short supply of silver that already exists - IMHO.
USAGOLD
goldnbones....Tietmeyer statement very important. Thanks for posting it.
The article you posted shows the growing rift in G-7 between Britain and the United States on one hand and Continental Europe on the other. Japan vascillates between the two. The statement below by Mr. Tietmeyer is an attempt to diplomatically let the world know that British/American position on the gold question is not necessarily the position of the rest of G-7. Don't forget the British press has repeatedly tried to use the BOE sale as an occasion to sell the idea of other central banks liquidating their gold as well. Misery loves company.

I am surprised that Tietmeyer's statement was direct and unequivocal -- no room for misinterpretation there. He obviously wanted the world to know where Germany stood.

The quote I reference above:

"On other subjects, Tietmeyer said no central banks present had announced any plans to sell gold in the wake of
Britain's surprise news last week it would gradually liquidate more than half its gold reserves.

`We are all of the opinion gold will remain in future an important reserve asset for central banks,' Tietmeyer
said."
TownCrier
FWN Closing NY Metals: Gold Falls Again Despite Tietmeyer Comments
New York-May 10-FWN--Gold futures took another tumble
here today, as heavy stop-loss selling was triggered in a
continued reaction to Friday's news that the United Kingdom
is planning to reduce its gold holdings by more than half.
Not even favorable comments from German Bundesbank President
Hans Tietmeyer could help the metal right itself.

June gold earlier today tumbled as far as $276.50,
meaning it had lost $14.70 since the high of $291.20 last
Thursday. For the day, the contract fell $5.30 to
$278.40.
The big impetus came Friday when the U.K. Treasury said
it was reallocating its reserves and would reduce its gold
holdings to 300 tons from 715 over the next few years,
moving into foreign-exchange assets instead.

"That's still the the main obstable right now," said
Richard Padron, director of research at Concorde Trading
Group, adding that low prices from Friday's sell off did not
spark much demand in Asia earlier today. "So the news
lingering from last week and the lack of buying interest
this morning gave it another leg to the downside."
The U.K. announcement was a setback to the market that
was in the process of recovering from worries about
potential International Monetary Fund and Swiss sales.
Officials in several countries have since made gold-
supportive comments, including Tietmeyer.

"It was reported that Tietmeyer said other ECB
(European Central Bank) countries would not be selling
gold," said Patrick Magilligan, vice president with
Prudential Securities. "Despite that, the market picked up
where we left on Friday.
"We quickly tested Friday's lows of $280.30 in the
June. We bounced off there once, but the next time went
right through it. And once we went below that, there were a
lot of stops."

According to news reports, after a Group of 10 meeting
in Switzerland, Tietmeyer was quoted as saying: "We are all
of the opinion gold will remain in the future an important
reserve asset for central banks."

Magilligan commented that the June futures appear to be
trying to hold around the $278 level, but he would not be
surprised if they retested the $276 area by the end of the
week.
Magilligan put initial support for June gold at today's
low of $276.50.
Below this, Padron put support around $271. This is
around the low of $271.60 that a weekly chart shows for the
front month back in August.
"When that number was hit, we bounced off it pretty
good," said Padron. "Within two weeks, we went up to around
$297, and in two or three weeks after that, we broke above
$300. We haven't been above that since, but some buying was
spurred down in that the $271 range."

While the U.K. gold sales will be spread over a few
years--and the planned 125 tons to be sold yet in this
fiscal year will be sold over several months--Padron noted
the market may be factoring in the entire amount at once.
"When you get it all factored in and get down to a
pretty attractive level, it could spur some buying," he
continued. "So it'll be interesting to see in the next few
days and weeks if the same pattern holds that we had back in
August."
Padron put resistance at $282. Magilligan listed $285,
then $288 to $290.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
el St.One
WAC
WAC Are you having the same problem posting as I am? In retrospect my post show up at the time I post, but they do not appear when sent. I usually have to wait till the next day to proof read what was posted. If anyone else has had this problem, and corrected it, please educate me. el
el St.One
RED FACED
That post appeared instantly el
TownCrier
Treasury offloads gold reserves
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_337000/337685.stmHot air on demand! This article is a prime example for USAGOLD's 5868 post, and the comment: "Don't forget the British press has repeatedly tried to use the BOE sale as an occasion to sell the idea of other central banks liquidating their gold as well. Misery loves company."

Click this BBC link to see the single most anti-gold article I have ever encountered in mainstream press. It touches on every point of the Gold-Shorter's Dogma.
el St.One
??????
MY red face post did not appear instantly, so I am wondering what I did different. Any hints, anyone.
TownCrier
Gobal economy good as gold
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_340000/340310.stmThis offering from the BBC provides better balance than the prior abomination. No bias here, folks!
jinx44
Hammer time on the anvil
I always enjoy the scholarly discussion here, so thank you all. There is one aspect of gold that gets short shrift and I want to again address it. Security of physical possession is the topic.

I just returned fron a week long police swat sniper course. I am even more concerned now, after having been with these people at very close quarters. The talk is of forfeiture and headshots, the attitude is "us" versus the rest of the world. There is no consideration for morals, oaths of office, or the "right" thing to do. It is COMPLETELY military in attitude and technique. Former SEALs taught the course.

My point is about the attitude of the USG towards privacy of thought, deed and possessions. We do not "own" anything in this country. The State allows us to retain certain thoughts and items subject to taxation, permitting and compliance.

Do not misunderstand me - I believe that gold is the only alternative we small people have in this world.

When the price of gold rises, the USG will either confiscate it by force or by taxation at the time of sale. I emplore all here to consider what lengths they will go to when this event transpires. Thank you.
el St.One
NO JOY
Sorry for all this trial and error. My first post okay, 2nd and 3rd have not appeared. I am trying this by posting on yesterdays screen. el
el St.One
Still no joy
My 4th post did no appear. Sooooooo I am back asking for suggestions.
Voyager
BC
Have heard the name of the Bilderbergers mentioned here and other places. What does this represent? I did not believe much in this new world order business, but as with Christine, I have come to the conclusion that it is a real possibility. I used to believe strongly in our government and believed they really did have the best interest of the American People at heart.

In 1969 at the height of the cold war I spent several weeks in Poland, East Germany, and other countries behind the Iron Curtain. Being young at the time I very cleary learned that freedom is something very special. Especially seeing the fear that those people lived in. For me, it is a very sad awarness that today our government (especially liberalism) really doesn't give a damn about us. YOU ARE STUPID AND LET THE GOVERNMENT TAKE CARE OF YOU is their motto. To many people are ready to accept this.

I do agree that owning gold inhances individual freedom.

The Bilderbergers? An extension of Clinton or is he one of them?

Aragorn III & Tomcat. Thanks for your response.
The Stranger
el
After you post, if it is not there, hit your reload button.
AEL
Bilderbergers
Voyager, this may interest you (and others) --------

here is an edited version of

THE HOFFMAN WIRE

May 6, 1999

Bilderberg Demands Media Secrecy

The world's most secret society is to meet in Portugal in June.
Bilderberg, one of the most secretive organisation in the
world,comprising presidents, royal families, ministers, top
industrialists and financial leaders are set to meet in Sintra,
Portugal at the beginning of June. Francisco Pinto Balsam�o, former
Portuguese PM, media baron and frequent attendee of the meetings is
listed as the member for Portugal. The security for the Bilderberg
meetings, which are held at irregular intervals and prompted by the
state of world affairs, is the responsibility of the host country.
According to sources in Washington, Bilderberg will pay hundreds of
thousands of dollars to reimburse the Portuguese government for
deploying military forces to guard their privacy and for helicopters
to seek out intruders. Bilderberg have ordered the resort to be shut
down for a full 48 hours before the conference. The Bilderberg
delegates, comprising some of the world's most powerful decision
makers, will be here to discuss highly classified issues which are
not supposed to be disclosed to the public by the press, before or
after the meeting.

Initially alerted to this meeting by a New York reader who requested
anonymity, The News contacted the Caesar Park Penha Longa resort in
Sintra to verify the information that the secret meeting will be held
at their resort. The only confirmation we received was that an
organization 'wishing for the utmost privacy' would be in Sintra and
that the hotel was fully and exclusively booked by this organisation
from June 2 to June 7.

The agenda for the meeting is said to include a "globilaztion
summit", during which nations which cling tenaciously to their
sovereign identities will be denounced by its leadership. The
principal feature of Bilderberg is that it seeks one global
government, (a structure similar to the European Union), while
counteracting nationalist sentiment is supposedly its greatest
battle. Renewed calls for the United Nations to be able to directly
tax all people of the world is said to be another major topic to be
tabled for discussion in Sintra. Bilderberg meetings are only held
when and where the hosts can provide the highest levels of security
for their guests. All Bilderberg participants, their staff members
and resort employees will wear photo identification tags. They will
have separate colours to identify the wearer as participant, staff
member or employee. A computer chip "fingerprint" will assure the
identity of the card's wearer.

According to the Washington based investigative newsletter,
Spotlight, who claims to have a contact inside Bilderberg, any
intruders are to be manhandled, cuffed and jailed and if the
intruders resist arrest or attempt to flee, they will be shot.
International and national media are said to be welcome only when an
oath of silence has been taken, news editors are held responsible if
any of their journalists 'inadvertently' report on what takes place.

Bilderberg members are immune to all forms of bureaucracy that face
ordinary citizens on a daily basis. No visas are required and a free
and safe passage is provided by the government providing the
Bilderberg rendezvous. They travel to and from the airport to the
resort in armoured vehicles with a police escort. Meetings are held
annually but rarely at the same locations for obvious security
reasons. The first Bilderberg conference was held at the Bilderberg
Hotel in Osterbeek Holland in May 1954, and the organization is said
to have been established as a secret and supportive wing of NATO and
the Marshall plan which was launched in the 1940s.

The News having researched various sources on the Bilderberg
meetings, discovered that PSD co-founder, Francisco Pinto Balsem�o,
allegedly attended at least the previous two Bilderberg meetings held
in Scotland (1998) and Georgia in the United States (1997). Balsem�o
is said to be the only Portuguese representative on the Bilderberg
steering committee. Other prominent figures listed to have attended
previous meetings are Ricardo Salgado chief executive officer at
Banco Espirito Santo, Henry Kissinger, Tony Blair (who attended the
meeting held in 1995) and Giovanni Agnelli who is the owner of the
Fiat Motor Corporation.

The News (Portugal) May 1, 1999. The News is Portugal's largest
circulation English language newspaper. Established for over 20
years, it is the only Portuguese newspaper on the net that covers all
the major news about Portugal in the English language.
http://www.the-news.net/

-----------------

Tony Gosling tony@gaia.org
www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Congress/7727/
www.ecovillages.org/uk/network/index.html
www.oneworld.org/tlio/

Common origin of NATO, EU, World Bank & IMF
www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Congress/7727/bildist/#The

All sorted chat monitored: http://jya.com/stoa-atpc.htm



USAGOLD
Townie....
I was watching one of those evening political talk shows the other night and the moderator was interviewing an ex-colonel in the U.S. army and Winston Churchill's son. Mr. Churchill was very vocal about NATO (read the United States) sending ground troops into Kosovo to get the "job done." The colonel retorted: "If the British want to supply the ground troops, we'll provide all the cover you'll need." More and more, people in the United States are questioning the nature of this new relationship between the United States and Britain. I know I am. This last attempt to pry loose IMF gold (enlisting the agreement of the Clinton administration) has made me extremely suspicious. And then they return to Britain after the IMF meeting and quickly mobilize their own reserves because they got shut down by G-7? What's going on here? I am also extremely suspicious about all the drum pounding on "NATO" ground troops in Kosovo. I agree with the colonel. If it means that much to you, get the British people to do the dirty work. We'll provide the air and sea cover. I don't think the British people would be all that eager to fight for Kosovar human rights. I want to say to all my British friends as well as the UK citizens who post here, that I have nothing against the British people. I just wonder what your government is up to under Tony Blair.
AEL
A day in the Sun for goldhearts?

A couple of critical points from recent posts:

jinx44 (5/10/99; 13:58:25MDT - Msg ID:5875) ---
"When the price of gold rises, the USG will either confiscate it by force or by taxation at the time of sale. I emplore all here to consider what lengths they will go to when this event transpires."

HLime (5/10/99; 4:01:36MDT - Msg ID:5841)
What World $10k gold?
"If you can make 30 times your money on internet stock and have to talk of an excessive profits tax, then why would that type of return in Au be different?"

INDEED! What is our exit strategy, and will we have a chance to execute it? Questions that loom ever larger in my mind, even while contemplating greatly increased PM valuations. Will the government figure a way to steal it, tax it into oblivion, or otherwise make it impossible to redeem the fruits of one's efforts and patience? We may see 10K gold, but will it mean anything (to us personally, that is)?

TownCrier
U.S. Treasuries rally for first time in 7 sessions
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/7u.htmlA rally upon flamingo legs
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold dn $5.3 after contract low
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 10--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $5.30 at $278.40 per
ounce, extending Friday's massive losses and plunging to a contract low of
$276.50 early in the session. Gold slumped on continued fallout from the
announcement Friday that the UK Treasury plans to sell more than half of its
gold reserves. Over the past 2 trading sessions, Jun gold has lost $12.3, or
4.2% as a result of the UK news.

On continuation charts, Jun gold had fallen to its lowest level in just over
8 months. Traders said that Jun's dip below $280 support spurred nervous
across-the-board selling. "Dealers in particular were shooting for sell stops
and they found them. It was like a house of cards and fell apart," said one
trader. He noted that Jun managed to scramble off its lows as those same dealers
"bought it back." After high volume early trade, gold then "did very little"
through the end of the session, said another trader.

Comforting noises this morning from the Germany's Bundesbank President Hans
Tietmeyer that the Group of 10 have not made any new decisions to sell gold
failed to lend support to the gold price, said traders.
"The confidence of the market was not reassured by Tietmeyer's statements,"
said James Steel, analyst at Refco. "The statements have not stanched the
selling effort that's begun since the UK's statement," he said. Pointing out
that the UK news was the latest in a series of negative official sector
developments, following sale proposals from the International Monetary Fund
sales and Swiss National Bank. "Traders are simply wary that there'll be more
official sector selling," he said.

He said that Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission commitment of
traders report for COMEX gold futures failed to inspire any
confidence because it "implies the longs are in weaker hands." Long positions
held by small as opposed to large traders climbed to 18.4% in the week ending
May 4 from the 14.5% seen in the previous week.

Yet more negatives for gold today came in the form of news Yugoslav troops
have started to pull out of Kosovo.
While the situation remains unclear, as a "safe-haven" investment, gold
typically benefits during times of political turmoil.
"When the political turmoil is over, people are saying let's redouble our
efforts in going short," said one trader, although he noted this was a
background issue compared to fears of central bank sales.

Statements today by Federal Reserve vice chair Alice Rivlin, voicing doubts
that a US inflation pickup is imminent put another nail in gold's
coffin. Gold is typically regarded as a hedge against inflation and tends to
start rising in price when inflation concerns escalate.
"There's just a complete lack of confidence in this market," said one trader,
noting things were looking better last week when Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan was "using the I-word" for inflation and bonds
were selling off. He said that gold has now broken through key levels and
there's not much hope for it. "Why buy it?" he questioned.
However, despite today's big slide, some "good sized bids" were coming in
towards the close, said one trader, noting that gold steadied, albeit at lower
levels, as the session wore on.

Nevertheless, gold has been "dealt a pretty good blow" said one trader,
noting that if the price plunge does not spur some bargain hunting in the price
sensitive countries of Asia, such as India the outlook will be "pretty bleak."

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $278.4, dn $5.3; RANGE: $283.4-276.5

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
TownCrier
USAGOLD and 5881
While international cooperation is expected, there is a degree of coziness between D.C. and Britain that has me scratching my head. You may be confident that I am scanning the headlines for the first indicator of one taking steps to annex the other. There is something not right, methinks...
el St.One
More confusion
I was away from this forum for about an hour, upon returning I failed to receive recent post. Some of the missing I had seen earlier. Most recent now is Msg #5868. To further this can of worms, I jumped back to Sunday posts, when I again looked at todays posts, 2 more recent appeared thru Msg #5870, but this is over an hour old. HELP el
Beowulf
China protests on CNBC
I'm sitting here typing and watching CNBC's report about China and their protests asking for blood. It seems the government in China has been showing its people nothing in reguards to why Clinton is bombing Kosovo. The scary part in there story was the report of people wanting blood for the destruction of their Embassy. If I were China how would I attack the US? Why economically of course. It would be the only way to get back at the US without actually starting a war. Anyone know any other ways? Computer virus? Dollar reserve selloff? Comments?

How about todays gold prices? Wow what a buyers market, come one come all to the Britain Going out of Buisiness Sale. Come get it cheap..Sale to the lowest bidder.
SteveH
And which gold market is this person in?
from an earlier post:

"While the situation remains unclear, as a 'safe-haven' investment, gold
typically benefits during times of political turmoil.
'When the political turmoil is over, people are saying let's redouble our
efforts in going short,' said one trader, although he noted this was a
background issue compared to fears of central bank sales."

Doesn't he or she realize that gold is not acting as normal. Where has he or she been? It seems clear to me that we have a tug-a-war here. The stakes are higher than a mud puddle, though. Currently the gold short camp has the ribbon closer to their territory, but the gold longs are consolidating and starting to pull by the numbers. Heave-ho, one...two...three...pull. The game is in slow motion but tomorrow will show the ribbon heading back into home territory. The battle for the ribbon will pull the shorts through the mud, ultimately as the market will win, today or tomorrow, it will win and so will we. Pull...pull...pull.

This market is unlike all others (not that I would know this, being a relative neophyte) but my intuition is strong and its says, gold will go higher. All this talk of an uncertain market means that the rules have changed. The trigger has not been pulled on behalf of higher gold. When it goes, the shorts will be running for the exits. So judge it not like before ye trader above because it is doing the opposite of what you say.

June gold is now...$278.60.
SteveH
june gold now...
$279.20, asking $279.30. Upper 60-minute bollinger is $282.50 and will likely meet gold around $281.00. Then we should see a narrowing of bands and a direction of breaking out, hopefully up. (of course, this is in a normal market. "Doctor, what is normal?")

Tomcat
jinx44, AEL, HLime. Exit Strategy Problems

As we get closure to rise in the POG, exit strategies become very important; especially to those whose families haved experienced man's wrath. Here are some thoughts.

Another, in his many posts, stressed that gold was not an investment (which needed an exist strategy) but rather is wealth itself and holding gold preserves one's wealth. In preparation for rough times one has to decide if one is investing and needing an exit strategy or if one is preserving one's wealth (which means one will most likely not exchange one's gold).

One big advantage of gold over silver is that in an emergency it can be transported, hidden/stored easily; silver is much to heavy for emergency transport in large quantities.

I do not believe silver will be confiscated. Personally, I plan to use silver for exchange purposes and to use gold for wealth preservation (pass it on to my kids).

What if gold hoarding becomes illegal? Will you turn yours in? You have to decide now what you will do with your gold and then have the courage to carry our your convictions.

I believe a balanced survival/prosperity strategy would include: Gold, Silver, and barter items that fit in with your values.

If you are an investor at heart, and you want to play on the gold field, then you must have a realistic exit strategy that is as sound as gold itself. Consider collectors' gold. It is not a guaranteed out but it might help.
Aristotle
Hey SteveH
I always appreciate your price updates, but it is your occasional decision to post that really makes you shine!

Thanks for yet another good one.

This must be the end of the end of the Great Gold Giveaway. I normally am content to methodically roll excess earnings into Gold coins (I'm officially a weakling for MK's selection of european pre-33's -- like little works of art at near-bullion prices.) But suddenly I am struck with the feeling that the current price of Gold in not only way too low (as it ever has been since the early-mid eighties,) but that it is UNNATURALLY low in a sense that gives new meaning to the word 'unnatural.' I find myself (gasp!) actually thinking about arranging a purchace now, financed against future earnings. My, my... taking out a small, innocent loan to buy Gold. What EVER am I thinking? I simply look back to the growing strength in price prior to the BOE announcement, and I know that this is not much more than a short-term gift.

By the way--Tomcat--I told you I'd let you know what I thought of my Belgian Gold francs when they arrived. They are here, and very nice! Good, solid, stately coins. A nice complement to the others in the Franc Family. MK actually DOES have good taste. (There is no beating the French Roosters, though!) ---Aristotle
SteveH
June gold now moving up...
Peter, Gandalf, and Aristotle, Aragorn and the rest...are you awake? $279.50. Bottom bounce time again.

I ask, "What would make the rise in gold inevitable?"

I can only think of a few things, but whatever they are or it is, it would have to be known by everyone and be as big a suprise as the BOE announcement. So I will start the list, priority not important until the list is done. Then let's assign priorities in order of liklihood. Here is a start:

Large country announces sale of US bonds.
Large CB annoucnes purchase of 450 tons of gold.
Three back to back months of inflation indices.
Y2K gold and silver coin shortage that make local TV stations in US.
Internet email alerting all email folks that Gold is about to rise and be correct.
Large CB announce gold sale and the price rises $10.00
One or more of the above at the same time.
All of the above over time.

Your turn:


Aristotle
Browser troubles for el St. One
I once developed the same problem you are having, and the only way I could get the updated USAGOLD pages to download was to empty my browser's disk cache prior to pressing the 'Refresh' button. That was a real hassle, as you can imagine, so I downloaded a newer version of my browser software (free of charge from Netscape or Microsoft). That solved my problem. Hope this solves yours too. ---Aristotle
Tomcat
Aristotle
Those Belgian Francs do sound special.

Do you remember when your guidance helped me turn paper into gold? Well, I just heard from MK that my gold is in the form of Belgian Francs! Your formula of wisdom is truly sound.
Gandalf the White
SteveH
GC9M took out the ask side of 279.6 just b4 midnite NY time and then the first trade of the day (Tues) was back to the bid at 279.3 --- BUT THE Volume is picking up !!
I am not sure of which or any of your items is going to be the correct one -- I just think the shorters shooting themselves in the other foot would be the most likely senerio.
<;-)
Peter Asher
Hi Steve
If the purpose of the BOE (alleged) sale is to knock down the POG to enable the short cover folks to get some affordable gold, then, when the post-announcement equilibrium is reached, they will begin to cover. Before last Friday, a +1.2 in Asia would have been exiting. Now it's BFD.

Of course, this is what they want. Everyone expecting each runup to be met with another surprise sale announcement. Then more covering will be possible at the prices necessary to preserve the solvency of the funds.

I am pretty much convinced now, that gold will not break-out due to factors involving gold. The behind the scenes people have enough cohorts throughout the system to keep slamming the technical rallies. It will take the disenchantment in other forms of investment, sending capital seeking gold, to overpower the 'Save the shorts' political/conspiracy team.

"They" may even be holding the whole Stock market up to help these SOBs cover there 8000 tons!

I guess all's fair in love, war and finanace!
SteveH
You all can go back to bed...June gold now...
$279.10.

You sure Mozel isn't Another?

Date: Tue May 11 1999 03:51
mozel (@End of an Era @How Long ? @Resistance is Futile) ID#153110:
Copyright � 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mother England has abandoned her brood, at last. The BOE has crossed the Euro Rubicon and cast the die. England is going into Europe. From inside the EU, she will attempt the sort of divide to maintain balance of power politics that she played from offshore for three hundred years past. Her European partners will not be satisfied until all her vestiges of Empire are foregone and she is just another one of them. The liquidation of her fictitious gold marked the end of an era. Another era is also about to end. The era of the greenback empire.

Everything now marches toward the major event in the last battle of the international war on gold, the redefinition of the IMF-SDR basket of currencies. I posted the schedule for this event last week. The very latest it will become IMF officially effective is 2001. In reality, it will become practically effective much sooner. Conversion of central bank reserves from greenbacks to Euros has been underway for some time. When gold is allowed to rise, the greenback will collapse, undermining the value of US exports as measured for IMF-SDR basket value. At that point it is all over for the international monetary system as we know it. Will it continue with the Euro as the dominant currency in the basket ? Or will the US liquidate it ? One or the other will occur. Maybe, one and then the other. Will Brazil align with the Euro ? Will the avenue to a Western Hemispheric fiat trade zone be closed to USG by Eurobonds whose value cancels Brazil's $US debt ?

@ is a disheartening slogan of a surrendered, captive mind. The hope for comfort in safety from surrender is what is truly futile.
Clint H
Shorts Covering Shorts?

Peter Asher, Gandalf, SteveH and others. Ref posts 5892, 5895, 5896.

This Squire is a little confused. Do we have shorts covering shorts and still no physical gold to bail anyone out? Are they now in even worse condition because they are short at even lower prices?

Peter, you said << "They" may even be holding the whole Stock market up to help these SOBs cover their 8000 tons!>>
Ronny Kraft, CEO of Gotham Capital Management stated that he believes a move in gold could trigger a massive selloff in equities as players short gold sell their stocks to cover those positions.
Does this mean we are somehow short in the stock market because "They" are also holding the bubble canopy up?

SteveH, would a CB announcement of the purchase of 450 tons of gold help the shorts? The gold is out of the market.

This looks like two black holes out of which no light can escape. However we do see a blizzard of paper spiraling into both holes never to see the light of day again.
Christine
Disinformation
The events that are about to unfold will be the first steps in major moves to deprive individual citizens in Western civilization of freedom and liberty. I become alarmed that much is being written that this is an inevitable outcome. The question continues to be, is this inevitable because of the stupidity and greed of those in power, or the intelligence and shrewdness of those in power. I have been trying to argue strongly for the latter. That is what I see. If this is the result of a shrewd plan, then there will be and have been many attempts at disinformation to disguise the real nature of events.
Christine
Oil shortages, gasoline shortages, and chaos
US crude oil output is now at a fifty year low, as a result of past 2 years of artificially low oil prices, which did much damage to US oil industry. In addition, there have been at least five recent refinery fires in US alone. It appears that gasoline shortages are being orchestrated for the US. What would gasoline shortages do at the same time the dollar is dramatically devaluing. The price of gasoline would skyrocket, creating fear and chaos. I sincerely doubt proponents of the euro/BIS are sneaking into the US and creating refinery fires. I will repeat, watch for the level of complicity within our own government for what is going on. This is much more than it seems.
Christine
@FAO & Another--Timing
Again, I greatly appreciate your knowledge and insights. I think you have said that the European CB's quit leasing gold a year ago, and that you believed that the POG would start to rise a year ago. A significant rumor that the forum has discussed is that the POG will be allowed to start rising starting this June. Many recent events point to this being a real possibility. Most notably, the recent dramatic rise in price of oil supports that POG cannot stay down much longer. The rise in price of oil this March appeared to be very orchestrated also. If POG does begin upward movement in June, it will put a different light on recent events. The IMF, Swiss, and now BOE have all announced gold sales. I would suspect that the goal of all of these announcements is to simply hold the US dollar up and euro down while they are ALL getting out of dollars and into euros. It also appears that the Bosnia war is soon to be ended. This would suggest that the war was just another maneuver to hold the euro down while ALL are doing their euro exchanges. That is my argument for what we are about to see not being some great power struggle between the BIS/IMF. Events appear to be much too coordinated. I don't doubt there may be long-standing differences between the IMF and BIS, but not to the extent of economic destruction. Canamami has argued this point well before.
Cavan Man
To Christine
While the price of gold appears to be manipulated and this we all view as nefarious, the world has long known that the price of crude is manipulated. OPEC has made a decision that many other commodity producers are in the process of implementing; they are taking excess production offline in many cases permanently to take the selling price of the commodity higher. I doubt there will be chaos because of rising gasoline prices. It is more likely that a large increase at the pump will force SUV owners to consider fuel cells.
Cavan Man
Linerboard
Linerboard is another commodity the price of which is in everything we need and use on a daily basis; the stuff boxes are made of. The market is rising. One increase this year and another expected by year's end. Either these increase get passed along or, they become subsidized by profits. The price of paper is seldom discussed but its need is ubiquitous.
Christine
@Caveman--where do we buy fuel cells
Can't tell if you are being facetious or not. I am not aware of any mass market availability of fuel cells yet. However, if we do have gasoline shortages, it will be soon. And if the dollar is devaluing against euro/oil at the same time, the rise in price of gasoline could be stratopheric. $6.00/gallon or higher gas could be chaos producing.
FOA
BOE
ALL:
Back on (FOA (4/30/99; 22:33:18MDT - Msg ID:5420) I offered this:
"I am watching Comex gold trading now, because this should be the place where local (US based) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold (perceived or otherwise)."
In that post and several others, prior, it was shown how and why major short hedge funds would cover their positions from political scrutiny. They are doing this, but, as yet, not by going long "actual comex" contracts. The action is taking place in the "Comex Options" market. This
area is usually used by gamblers that bet on gold. Few, if any of these players actually take delivery of the "comex gold future's". Now, a different operator (s) is buying in, the above mentioned Funds. These people have the "real" short exposure necessary to hedge long, buy taking delivery of the contracts.

As stated before, over the coming months, expect the "comex futures OI" to expand tremendously as long positions are taken "outright" or established from exercising "gold futures options". This "play" has begun on the world OTC gold market, often used by LBMA traders. The amount of gold offered by the BOE sales will be a "drop in the bucket", it is creating an avenue for hedging (perhaps it's real intent?). Local investors cannot watch the OTC figures, but
that trading is spilling over into the "comex gold options floor".

This recent fall in price was but a "trading range move" to allow for an "ongoing" repriceing of gold. They will not dare to keep it below $280 for long. A warning shot may be fired by the BIS controlled ECB this week! We shall see! FOA
FOA
comment
Hello Cavan Man'
I agree with your assessment. Also, I add, that stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate and "water use" are all manipulated daily! It is a built in component of the "Western" 'Politically Free" society! The only time people become outraged at this "obviously unmoral" practice, is when it effects a large vocal group "negatively in their pocketbook". I don't see gold stock owners suing the
Federal reserve board because the dollar is "too strong"! Yet, millions of third world citizens are impoverished by this move. Most novice investors accept the notion that the currencies are "priced and balanced" fairly by market forces.

I off a past post thought: (FOA (4/30/99; 23:30:04MDT - Msg ID:5426) "The world often values things wrongly, because people as a group invest using their present life
experiences as a guide. They learn using a continuation of "present trends" established during their short existence, instead of allowing the real results of history to teach them."

Christine, I know you agree? FOA
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! A Gilded Opinion update now appears at USAGOLD!
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.htmlKnights and Ladies of the Round Table, a new page may be found at the Gilded Opinion to help you to better understand the details of the Bank of England's recently announced gold auctions. From the link above, you may access the official press releases from the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and the World Gold Council - London.
A small quest that will leave you better for having made the journey...
Christine
@FOA--puzzles and missing pieces
There is one puzzle piece that is the most baffling to me. The move of the Saudi's towards Iran for defense clearly suggests that there is move of the Middle East oil states towards the euro. As you know, I do not agree that what we are seeing unfold reflects an attack by the BIS upon the US dollar. I believe it is the unfolding of a plan to essentially create new massive nation-states with international electronic gold-backed currency.

Once, FOA, I remember reading that you or Another had said this plan you speak of by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect.
BC
Voyager, Christine: Bilderbergers and Manipulation of World Events
Voyager (5/10/99; 14:18:45MDT - Msg ID:5878)
Christine (5/11/99; 5:15:21MDT - Msg ID:5899)

Hi, Voyager, Christine.

Voyager, I assume the news story posted by AEL (5/10/99; 14:43:03MDT - Msg ID:5880) provided some answers to your question about the Bilderberg group.

I've seen news stories about them for many years. I don't archive the stories, but I did find a couple of sites on the Web that you might check out as background.

Christine, these articles may provide some more background for your questions as well.

Origins of the Bilderberg Group
http://www.parascope.com/mx/articles/bilderberg01.htm
Details of 1998 meeting in Scotland
http://www.parascope.com/mx/articles/bilderberg.htm
"Good News: 1998 Was an Awful Year for Internationalists"
http://user.tninet.se/~gbl020q/bildermeetings.htm
Details on 1996 meeting in Canada
http://webbindustries.com/spotlight/f_bb_art001.html
Articles about coordinated manipulation of world event
http://webbindustries.com/spotlight/index.html

Am I a conspiracy nut? Do I believe there is a global conspiracy?

I believe people will act in their own self interest to increase their wealth and power. I've seen first hand the business benefits of networking and business alliances on a formal and informal basis. If one sees groups like the Bilderbergers as the ultimate in business networking and business alliances by the richest and most powerful people who control, through interlocking Boards of Directors, the biggest multinational corporations on the planet, then manipulation of large-scale events to achieve certain desired outcomes does not seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Is this manipulation an exact science? No. There are too many variables in the world.

Is it worth a try anyway? If the goal is to increase your wealth and power no matter what, some people may think it is.

Do I worry about what they're doing? No. But I think if you live in the midst of a herd of elephants and the elephants start to dance, it's a good idea to ignore the song they are singing, and instead, keep an eye on their footsteps and the dance patterns they are following.

BC
TownCrier
Political tension rises in Moscow
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_340000/340911.stmNot exactly a comforting level of stability here...
FOA
Reply
Christine (5/11/99; 7:37:42MDT - Msg ID:5908)
@FOA--puzzles and missing pieces

"Once, FOA, I remember reading that you or Another had said this plan you speak of by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible thethe Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect. "

Christine,
A very good observation / question!

" Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning?"

I, personally, think they were for a while. After all, the Euro group will, just as the US group, take all the power they can get! But, world power struggles are always a funny thing, in that no one entity is as great at maneuvering politics as they think they are. Each group has it's own strengths the other cannot counter.
Look at Russia, a full blown nuclear power that rivaled the US, yet, all of that military might went out the door when the "money war" broke them! Then there is Japan? One of the biggest economic, financial powers in the world, and they went bust for lack of "political agreement"!
China has none (relatively) of the above, yet they are the major desire of the US and Europe for all of their ability to produce economically. And they play that card with incredible ability.
However, all of it pales in comparison to oil. If they did suspect that the BIS was playing them into a "new World Order" then that explains their use of the "gold card". It was allowed to be known that the failure of the Euro to replace the dollar would bring on the reprice of oil using
partial payment of a tiny fractional gold amounts per barrel in the settlement mix. Real gold, not paper! It would have forced every oil producer in the world to follow as the gold price would have blew past $30,000 as the new oil currency. Quickly, at the last minute, the ECB and the BIS announced that Euro system Central Banks would stop all selling and wind down leasing. Then gold was brought into the reserve mix for the Euro. Perhaps a counter play? You bet!

The game goes on. FOA


Al Fulchino
FOA, Christine, Others re gas shortages
Where does that leave the gas station owner? Will it be the same as the 70's when the supply was really there, yet tight enough to command better profits for producers, the majors and the retailers? Or is the next energy going to come in and dust the current industry away? Thoughts are very much appreciated....Al
Gandalf the White
Keep Talking Folks --- Very informative Today !
FOA -- a Question
Please expand on the Comex options trading and where this is to be seen. Is it quoted somewhere also. Thanks. GW
<;-)
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Brown Makes Still Another Attempt to Drive Market Lower
MARKET ANALYSIS (5/11/99): With the effects of the Bank of England gold auction
announcement beginning to wear off, gold reversed direction with authority this morning.
A number of factors were helping the yellow metal.

First, as a meeting of the G-10 nations convened in Basle, central bankers from the
European Union group announced that none of the member nations had any intention of
selling gold countering British and American financial press claims that there would be. The
clearly stated positions on gold sales by the central bankers added more doubt to the
questionable statements by British authorities that the gold auction was an attempt to "run
ahead" of other central banks who they claimed would be sellers in the near future. German
Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer stated categorically that "We are all of the opinion
gold will remain in the future an important reserve asset of central banks." Statements like
this from other central bankers, as well as the U.S. Treasury Department, took the steam
out of yesterday's carry-over trading to the downside -- ending the slide early in the day and
paving the way for today's upside. The British pound was taken to the woodshed again this
morning in early trading presumably in a slide related to the gold auction announcement.

In this morning's Standard Bank gold report, mention was made of a strong sell-off in
London after Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown called for further International
Monetary Fund gold sales. These "calls" by Brown are beginning to take on the feel of
comedy. Nevertheless the market fell to the $275 level and then recovered quickly when
strong physical buying came into the market pushing the price up rapidly back to the $278
level. The market in New York opened much higher when rumored sales at the London
close failed to materialize. A pattern is beginning to emerge. Some British "authority" issues
some type of anti-gold statement driving the price momentarily lower. As the price drops,
mysterious "physical buying" suddenly surfaces.

Second, for most of the trading day we watched market action carefully to see if the hedge
funds would come in as sellers. Typically, in the past, the hedge funds have piled on these
announcements, but yesterday appeared to be an exception. This morning it appears that at
least part of this rally can be attributed to short covering, probably by the hedge funds.
Though the jury is out on what the funds will do in the near term, this record short position
will need to filled at some point and this could be the perfect opportunity. The British salvo
may turn out to be a two day event in the gold market to be treated like a passing storm --
refreshing the landscape -- if you happen to be short -- but with little, or no, long term
effect This is not, I would assume, what the Bank of England had in mind, but it could very
well be what it gets.

Third, as the week draws to a close, we will get the latest inflation numbers. As reported
here yesterday the market anticipates much higher PPI and CPI numbers.

That's it for today. Have a good day.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
BC
puzzles and missing pieces
Christine (5/11/99; 7:37:42MDT - Msg ID:5908)

Hi, Christine,

Your comment: "...I do not agree that what we are seeing unfold reflects an attack by the BIS upon the US dollar. I believe it is the unfolding of a plan to essentially create new massive nation-states with international electronic gold-backed currency. ...this plan...by the BIS has been in the works since the 70's. Clearly any plan like my version of a much larger coordinated scheme would require the cooperation of the BIS and the oil states. Is it possible the the Middle East oil states have been mislead as to the bigger picture from the very beginning? Could the Middle East believe the BIS plan is the plan, when a much broader plan is in effect."

Perhaps all of the above are true to some degree. If my memory serves me correctly, the Bilderbergers have been around since the 1950s.

Throughout history, groups of people have tried to increase their wealth and power at the expense of others. But history shows us that, while these groups may succeed for a while, they ultimately fail. Why? The same drive for wealth and power that drove them to work together to violate others' sovereignty in the first place is the same misguided addiction (greed for money, lust for power, sexual depravity, resentment, hate, jealousy, egomania, etc.) that drives them to betray each other at key turning points after their common goals are met.

BC
Aragorn III
BC--your excellent 5909
Thank you for sharing these good thoughts. This post reminds me of the path I was travelling last Thursday and Friday with Goldfly, Gandalf, and JA before I became distracted with outside business. I shall pick up this trail later this day as time permits.

got bread crumbs?
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Gold Activity in Belgium
I requested that my wife pay a visit to our local branch of BBL to enquire about securing some physical Au, storage facilities etc. It would appear that quite a lot of Belgians are acquiring the yellow stuff and the reason given for this activity is Y2K. This was also confirmed at the local jewellers.
TownCrier
Miyazawa says not mulling Japan gold reserve sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990510/bhw.htmlNo, we didn't think so, either...
TownCrier
World Gold Council Chief Executive Reflects on British Treasury Gold Sales
WGC PRESS RELEASE:
Remarks at London Conference Underline Importance of Gold's Continuing Role as Reserve Asset

Addressing the Bank Credit Analysts Conference in London today, Haruko Fukuda, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council commented upon the decision by the British Treasury that it will be selling more than half of its gold reserves. The following is a summary of Miss Fukuda's remarks:

``Gold is at once a commodity and a universal currency. Is the British Chancellor of the Exchequer challenging that long-held assumption by bringing the gold ratio down to a mere 7% of the UK's total official reserves? Or was there another hidden political agenda? We at the World Gold Council have been told by HM Treasury that it was emphatically a political decision. I am delighted to have this opportunity to refer to the subject of gold, not least because I have recently been appointed Chief Executive of the World Gold Council, which represents the interests of the world's gold mining companies.

``I did not have it in mind to discuss gold today, but if you would forgive me, I should like to give a very brief advertisement for gold as a reserve asset in defiance of the latest decision of the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

``Despite persistent efforts by the United States to drive gold out of the international monetary system entirely, gold is today an important part of the world's central banks' official reserves. Indeed, overall, the amount of gold held by central banks has not in fact fallen since 1970; that is, before gold ceased to have a role in defining the value of currencies. 70% of countries reporting to the IMF declare gold holdings and only 6% declare they have no gold.

``Central banks hold gold partly at least because it is no one else's liability; it is not subject to the vagaries of economic management. We should remember why gold became de-coupled from the dollar and why the subsequent attempt to replace it with another international reserve asset, SDRs, was a failure. It is too early to tell whether the experience of the recent past, with moves to create independent central banks with price stabilization goals, will work in perpetuity. But there is no escaping the fact that the value of currencies depends on governments' promises.

``Gold has a long history of maintaining its real value over the long term: a calculation of average total annual returns for a dollar investor from buying in any given year and selling in any subsequent year (randomly chosen) during the hundred years between 1896 and 1996 demonstrates that gold has out-performed both long and short dated US government bonds. A nation's reserves should be diversified to minimize risk: research shows that gold is an ideal portfolio diversifier since returns are negatively correlated with most other reserve assets. The European Central Bank's research a year or so ago suggested that a reserve portfolio containing up to 20% of gold is subject to less risk than one entirely composed of US dollars and Japanese yen.

``Gold reserves build public confidence: perhaps it is not totally a coincidence that the currencies of Australia and Canada devalued substantially following their sales of gold. Opinion polls taken last year in Europe showed overwhelming support for countries maintaining gold reserves.

``Gold is generally regarded as the asset of last resort as governments have only drawn on their gold reserves in times dramatic economic or social difficulties. The last sale of gold in France was in 1969 to deal with the financial consequences of the May 1968 uprising; in Portugal, where gold was sold following the 1975 revolution; more recently, India used its gold reserves to borrow US$1 billion to avoid default in 1991; and in the recent financial crisis in Korea gold was dis-hoarded to help the national economy.

``Gold reserves of central banks are still perceived as an insurance against major disturbances in the international monetary system. The last sharp rise in the price of gold in the early 1980s coincided with the fears of a collapse of the banking system as a result of the Latin American debt crisis.

``Lastly, but most importantly, gold reserves are an emblem of monetary sovereignty. Why else would the ECB choose a 15% gold ratio for its reserves in launching the new currency, the Euro? When the Baltic states regained their independence in 1990, one of the first acts was to ask for the restitution of their gold that had been deposited in European central banks. Revealingly, Toyoo Gyohten, perhaps the best-known international negotiator from Japan, wrote in his book, which was co-authored by Paul Volcker, that 'there were rather strong arguments among politicians and even among officials for increasing our gold reserves, because it was obvious that unless you had some gold in your reserves you really could not participate in international discussions because no one would pay any attention to you.'''

The World Gold Council is an international organization formed and funded by leading gold mining companies from around the world to increase the demand for gold.

PH in LA
Another Puzzle Piece Falls Into Place
Clarification for (mostly absent) posters

Another's and FOA's much misunderstood thesis of "gold for oil" whose misunderstanding seemed to propell Another's THOUGHTS towards the lunatic fringe got a large dose of clarification this morning in FOA's post (5/11/99; 8:34:18MDT - Msg ID:5911) which bears underlining for the�benefit of "those of idle chatter" (mostly over at that other forum) whose intentional? misinterpretation of Another's THOUGHTS gave them so much cause for self congratulation at the time.

FOA writes today: "However, all of it pales in comparison to oil...that explains their use of the "gold card". It was ALLOWED TO BE KNOWN (my emphasis) that the failure of the Euro to replace the dollar would bring on the reprice of oil using partial payment of tiny fractional gold amounts per barrel in the settlement mix. Real gold, not paper! It would have forced every oil producer in the world to follow as the gold price would have blown past $30,000 as the new oil currency. Quickly, at the last minute, the ECB and the BIS announced that Euro system Central Banks would stop all selling and wind down leasing. Then gold was brought into the reserve mix for the Euro."

With this post, it is now clear that "gold for oil" was never actually a reality; but rather the threat of a very easily-implementable reality that could have turned the financial world on its ear in a heartbeat. With this comment, FOA shows how the mere threat has nevertheless eventually changed the landscape as we "watch this new gold market together".

Thank you FOA for this important insight.
Christine
@Al Fulchino--on future on oil industry in US
Your previous comments on the oil industry have been enormously helpful to me. I have speculated about this energy issue. Western nations that remain out of Euroland are generally rich in energy resources. I expect we will see a big rampup of alternative fuels. Everything I've read suggests fuel cells are along way from being marketable. However, what do you think? You are probably the best expert to share your thoughts on this.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Fuel Cells
Christine, check out the followin sites:

http://www.drivingthefuture.org/
http://www.Ballard.com/
BC
FOA: COMEX Contract Expiration and BOE Gold Auction
FOA (5/11/99; 7:00:32MDT - Msg ID:5905)

Hi, FOA

Is this the correlation you were talking about in your post #5905?

"The first of these auctions will take place on 6 July 1999: thereafter it is envisaged that they will be held every other calendar month, i.e. in September and November 1999 and in January and March 2000." (From BoE Press Release--7 May 1999: RESTRUCTURING THE UK'S RESERVE HOLDINGS: GOLD AUCTIONS)

Gold futures contracts on the COMEX expire:

June contract: 6/28/99
August contract: 8/28/99
October contract: 10/27/99
December contract: 12/28/99
February contract: 2/25/99

The first BOE sale is July 6, 1999, eight days after June gold futures contract expires. Convenient for someone needing to take delivery of June gold?

Other BOE sales scheduled for September and November, 1999, and January and March 2000. Will they also be a convenient few days after contract expiration?

I did this quickly. I'm pretty sure the dates are correct.

Since IMF, ECB, BIS or US Treasury will not provide gold to cover these futures contracts, BOE is stepping up to the plate?

BC
AEL
gary north on gold
FYI:


http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4638

The IMF says it will sell some gold (not much) to raise money to loan to
underdeveloped nations, i.e., help them maintain interest payments to large
banks.

Now the Bank of England says it will sell half of its gold to buy T-bills
and similar electronic assets. This is another step in the official
demonetization of gold by governments.

I say, goodie. Over two decades ago, I wrote a piece in the Wall Street
Journal calling for every government and central bank to sell all of its
gold. This would represent the return of stolen goods to the public. I want
to see the remonetization of gold, which means a gold coin standard, where
governments and banks are out of the money-creation business.

Y2K may actually lead to the remonitization of gold. The more comprehensive
y2k's effects, the more likely this becomes.

Notice that one nation is not selling any of its gold: the United States.
This demonetization of gold is mostly public relations until the U.S. sells
(not says it might sell) all of its gold. It would have to buy it back from
the Federal Reserve System.

Why all the publicity on gold sales now? Because of y2k. There will be a
run into gold the day the full implications of y2k are recognized by the
public. The central banks are trying to stop a y2k-motivated increase in
the price of gold bullion, which would otherwise accompany a run on banks
all over the world. The price of gold can be kept down by huge sales, or
threats of huge sales, thereby covering up a key piece of evidence in the
approaching y2k bank failure.

Christine
@WAC--Ballard Power
I am long time follower of Ballard Power. They are notorious for hyping their company to get more funding. I have read engineers who say the technology is years away from being mass marketable at a reasonable cost. However, engineers can be wrong. The jury is out on that one for me.
Christine
@BC--Thanks
Thanks for the links and comments. I will file it all away.
Chris
USAGOLD
Lease Rates
Can anybody direct me to a medium to long term chart on the correlation between gold lease rates and the price? Trying to settle a current preoccupation. Thanks.
FOA
Reply
Gandalf the White (5/11/99; 9:07:31MDT - Msg ID:5913)
Keep Talking Folks --- Very informative Today !
"FOA -- a Question Please expand on the Comex options trading and where this is to be seen. Is it quoted
somewhere also. Thanks. GW"


Gandalf,
Check your WSJ commodity options page. It will give you a quick idea of what is happening. The total OI in the call side is, I think, over 400,000 already. Of course, that would grow much higher if I'm correct.
ALL: I will be out for a while and return to comment on the many interesting thoughts here today. FOA
Cavan Man
To Christine RE: Fuel Cells
Yes, I was pulling your leg a bit. Fuel cells are a long way from being competitive with internal combustion but Ballard is a company to watch. I am new to this forum business and the subject that is near and dear. The more I tune in the more I am confused; kind of like following popular culture. I am unlearned but if I could say just one thing, LIGHTEN UP A BIT WOULDYA! You should only worry about what you can control right? If you have the yellow metal and have taken other precautions and continue to exercise prudence and good judgment then, go fishin'. Gold is good in this life but worthless in the next. Respectfully submitted....
The Invisible Hand
Reserve vs. Backing

Britain sells part of its gold reserves.

The ECB would have around 15 percent of its reserves in gold.

Does this mean that de euro is 15 percent gold backed and that if gold rises 7 times in euro terms, the euro will be on the gold standard? I suppose not, but I don't find the meaning of reserve on the web nor in my books.

By the way, how much gold has the Fed in reserve? Less than 15 percent?
Chicken man
USAGold - lease rates
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htmSharefin has a good chart vs spot.....looking at it last night....lease rates are product of high spot or cause...?
Notice the mini spike one year later than the Buffet spike....rolling over leases...?
Christine
@Cavan Man--How serious is this situation
Hello, Cavan Man. You seem to be a person with a quick, decisive mind. No harm in that. As FAO likes to say, we will watch what happens together. You may have a different opinion in a few months. But, I actually do hope that nothing will happen to change your mind.
Aristotle
Some requested info for the Invisible Hand
You asked for the meaning of 'reserve.' As used in your post, the reserves in question are the foreign exchange reserves that cental banks use for the purpose of providing some means of international credibility for their currency, and for tweaking their exchange rates if intervention on the open market becomes necessary in their view. These reserves are some mix of international currencies and Gold.

When the ECB was launched by the European System of member banks, it was funded with (working from memory here) 50 billion ECU's in reserves, and they opted to use Gold for 15% of those reserves. If you count the Gold and international paper reserves still held by the member banks, Gold (over 10,000 tonnes!) makes up 30% of the total available reserves. By way of comparison, I recall that their money supply exceeds 1 trillion euros.

In the U.S., the Treasury reports approximately 8,000 tonnes of Gold, valued at $42.2222, which constitutes approximately 50% of the U.S. foreign exchange reserves. Because the U.S. dollar has been widely used and accepted as the world's reserve currency, the U.S. has found little need to hold the paper of other international parties. And because it makes no sense for the U.S. to hold dollars in reserve (it simply doesn't work that way), the Gold is a large percentage of the total reserves, with the paper being a small mix of euro legacies (marks), yen, and swiss francs, among others. ---Aristotle

TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Gold Stabilizes After Recent Declines
New York-May 11-FWN--The precious metals complex
finished near steady to modestly firmer here today, with
gold finally stabilizing--at least in the near term--
following falls the last two days after news of upcoming
official sales by the United Kingdom.
June gold gave up some of its early gains, but still
finished 40 cents firmer at $278.80. It was in a range of
$2.30, from $278.10 to $280.40.

"It stabilized a bit after the sharp declines the last
couple of days," said Dave Rinehimer, head of futures
research with Salomon Smith Barney. "The range has gone back
to pretty narrow.
"Being able to hold above yesterday's low ($276.50)
probably brought a little bit of stability into the market.
We seemed to have some decent buying interest on the
opening, and that probably brought some short covering into
the market."

Gold also was helped today by strength in the
Australian dollar, currently up 0.29 U.S. cent at 66.89 U.S.
cents, and the South African rand, he added.
Still, Rinehimer said the market may not have seen the
lows.
"The market still appears more vulnerable to the
downside," he said. "It's difficult to see what's going to
get us back toward the $290 area, in light of the U.K. news."

On Friday, U.K. Treasury officials announced plans to
reallocate reserves, selling 415 tons of gold over the next
few years and moving into foreign-exchange assets instead.
Plans call for the Bank of England to sell 125 tons yet this
fiscal year, with the first of five auctions scheduled for
July 6.
This comes as the market was watching the International
Monetary Fund and Swiss officials moving toward potential sales.
Support for June gold was put at Monday's low of
$276.50, while resistance was listed at $284.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Peter Asher
Gandalf
The options come up on quote-com by entering OG + month + price. So, OGM280 is the option to buy a June future contract for $280. That option expires on this Friday and closed today @ $1.20.

One could therefore buy up the options and exercise them to acquire the futures, without putting pressure on the price of either June Gold or the physical while executing. However, at some quantity of option purchasing, market phenomena would enter into this and the option premium itself would rise.

The fact is that today's trading shows a volume of 9 contracts total, so there doesn't seem to be anything going on there. (I wondered if the volume figures were in hundreds, but the bar chart shows nothing but horizontal blips).

This may raise more questions than give answers, but that's all I know as a mostly self educated option player.
USAGOLD
Chickenman
Thanks for the assist.
Peter Asher
Gandalf & FOA
I just read FOA's post about 400,000 OI on call options. The significance would be at what various strike prices they are written at. Options would only facilitate short covering if the gave the holder the ability to acquire the contracts to acquire the physical at a lesser expenditure than if they went straight to the spot market for that particular quantity.

Strikes of 280, 85 &90 might enable more quantity to be purchased this way, than by direct buying which could kick off the over 290 buying panic. On the other hand, strike prices way out there in the 300s, would only be useful if purchasing the equivalent quantity directly would shoot the spot price up beyond those strikes.

I hope this can be followed with all the run-on sentences. I can hear my English #101 Professor weeping in his grave.
Cavan Man
Christine..The point is...
It appears that perhaps I have come in late in Act III n'est pas? The point is why worry? If you are prepared for the worst, hope for the best as I know you do.
TownCrier
US Treasuries jolted, 30-yr yld highest in a year
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/bcw.htmlProfessional sellers: after a shot at the long side, "...now they are getting out of stuff aggressively."

Soros' hedge fund said to be selling. Shades of SE Asia?
TownCrier
Day-end tea leaves
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/bca.htmlMost IMM currencies end lower, euro down sharply
TownCrier
Redbook U.S. retail index up 1.9 pct May vs April
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990511/77.htmlShoppers hit the streets...Y2K buying?
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Gold steadies after Fri, Mon plunge
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 11--After plunging Monday and Friday, COMEX Jun gold futures
managed to steady and settled up 40c at $278.80 per ounce after an inside day's
trading. Over the Monday and Friday trading sessions, Jun had lost a total of
$12.30, or 4.2%, following news that the UK Treasury plans to sell more than
half of its gold reserves.

One trader said that the market was quiet, suggesting that many players were
"taking a break" after the recent frenzied selling.

On the gold side, 4 US senators, including minority leader Tom Daschle
(D-S.D), sent a letter to US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, saying they were
opposed to the proposal to sell International Monetary Fund gold.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $278.8, up 40c; RANGE: $280.4-278.1

Taipei--May 11--Taiwan's March imports of precious metals were mostly up
compared with February, according to data from the Directorate General of
Customs. By Sylvia Shih, Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
Golden Truth
Truth starting to come out Golded OZ by Golden OZ. YAHOO!!
Golden Truth
url correction
beesting
@jinx44-msg.5875-a chilling message--back to the 60's??
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/STATE/t000042287.2.htmlMy friend jinx, the above URL shows most people are level headed,in most situations,including police.
Unlike most other countries,the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms.The Constitution also protects against unreasonable searches and seizures.Amendment IV.
Therefore if these storm troopers(jinx44-msg.5875) start to enforce unpopular laws(confiscation of personal assets) it may undermine the stability of the U.S. and in the eyes of the worlds investors cause a panic out of U.S. paper assets, precipitating a collapse of the dollar.
If I remember right,the Viet Nam era was ending about the time that Gold started its flight from $35 per ounce to over $800 per ounce,a time of unstability in the U.S. My 101 year old aunt would shoot me if I try to relieve her of her Gold coins.

On a lighter note, most Gold mining stocks ROSE today despite a low spot price of Gold.Investors may sense a change in the Gold market,right now.We watch together........beesting
Voyager
AEL
Thank you for your very interesting article on the Bilderbergers. Although a strange mixture of bedfellows.

Reminds me a bit of Hillary and her "vast rightwing conspiracy" theory. The Republicians and conservatives are so dysfunctional, and they could pull off such a conspiracy? It is hard to believe, but the world is a very strange place these days. Clinton has shown clearly that most people would rather be led by the nose than think for themselves.

You can count me out as a citizen of The New World Order.

Somewhere recently wasn't there something about the UN wanting to pass gun control laws for all member nations?
SteveH
June gold now...
$278.80.

Went to a speach today. The topic was a Future View of Family Business. The speaker was a futurist and a good speaker but I did question some of his facts. I waited and held my peace until the question period and managed three questions:

What is the affect of the Euro and the dollar as a reserve currency?

What will be the affects of Y2K?

What will be the local persons reaction to the rise in the price of oil?

I stuck around until the very end and threw a comment to him that gold was taking on a position of greater importance in the world.

What I discovered is that no one has any idea that gold plays any significant role in international monitary affairs. He believes that gold will be dishoarded and that something else will take its place. I asked him what. He said faith.

Regarding Y2K, he said it won't significantly affect the US but will overseas.

Regarding oil, he said the cost wasn't $20 per barrel as I inferred in my question. He said Saudia Arabia's cost was about $2.00 per barrell. He said in the US it was $7.00.

Regarding the Euro and the Dollar, he said he wasn't quilified to answer.

He said that the economy would continue to be good because we have figured out to have growth without inflation.

At that point I realized that he nor anyone else in that room was aware of gold, the true cost of oil, SDR's, BOE sales, and the rest of this. If gold goes to $10,000 and oil to $5 or $6 per gallon, it will take Mr. and Mrs. Q public absolutely by storm and wonder what the heck happened.

"Martha, did you feel something?"

"No Norm, I didn't."

Pulls back the camera to wide angle with two people in their underwear sitting at a table with forks in their hands where the plates and food and furniture and all other household goods suddenly disappeared.
FOA
The OI thread:
Gandalf the White (5/11/99; 9:07:31MDT - Msg ID:5913)
BC (5/11/99; 10:39:35MDT - Msg ID:5923)
Peter Asher (5/11/99; 13:53:47MDT - Msg ID:5935)
Peter Asher (5/11/99; 14:18:42MDT - Msg ID:5937)

Gandalf and All,
I want to expand (or repeat) about the Open Interest Posts. First, I quoted from the wrong post. It should have been #5418 as it gives a better background. Here is part of it:

"""""FOA (4/30/99; 21:59:59MDT - Msg ID:5418)
I am watching Comex gold trading now, because this should be the place where local (US based) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold (perceived or other wise).

Private investment funds, that have raised capitol through any form of gold short securities, may be asked to expose their "risk". The full group of investment entities may also be expanded to include "any" other parties that have dealings or actual exposure to these funds that are short. In essence, every major player in the gold market could be looking for a way to "neutralize" their books to scrutiny. Even though your exposure may have come from the unregulated part of the OTC world gold market, if one is "hedged long" on a "politically acceptable" exchange, then your position is "politically not at risk"! The books stay closed.

So why watch Comex, open interest? If a certain political faction suddenly changed direction and wanted to revalue gold as an asset to lend money against, the fasted way to do it is to drive currency traders into the paper gold traded on comex. When looked at in this light, gold takes on
a very different appearance than the commodity we thought it was.""""

I went on to talk about volume. The point of this post and my one earlier #5905 was to prepare a background for the coming major trading that will take place on Comex. It will not be about trying to take delivery of comex gold, rather to match paper longs against "uncoverable" paper shorts". As the gold market becomes more dynamic and media attention increases, most major traders that are short will need coverage on their "books" not actual delivery. In a way,
what I said above.

Peter, a few dollars out of line will be nothing compared to the financial and political liability about to be heaped upon the world "gold shorts". As I told Gandalf, it is already spilling over out of the OTC trading and showing up on the gold options open interest. Small as it is at 400,000+, it will grow until that arena becomes frozen from use (read that the premiums will explode)! Then
the real Comex OI will start growing. They will exercise some options for future contracts, if only to roll them (Futures contracts) over to further out delivery.

BC, hello! There is most certainly a correlation between the BOE sales and the expiration of comex futures. It points to the whole reason for the BOE sales in the first place. An announcement that this is the end of the game! They are going to take out as much of the "most favored" Bullion merchants as possible and let the rest burn.
I know that Michael (USAGOLD) does not think that England will go for the Euro, but some line has been crossed. The US is now about to drive gold UP! Please read this partial post:

---------------FOA (4/30/99; 22:33:18MDT - Msg ID:5420)

Michael,
Hello again! I'll reprint the item you committed on:

"This points to the odd circumstances that require America to free up gold through the IMF so they can benefit. Whereas, the ECB has but to only let the price rise!"

When one puts on a political thinking cap, that statement does say a lot! Why else would the ECB establish a precedent of routinely "marking to the market" their gold (and the gold of the Euro System banks also). Then add to that your remark of:

"becomes clear that this is a very risky business and that they are being asked to sacrifice their gold to defend another country's currency."

Suddenly, we see who's gold was really at risk, all along! Are we in the last days of the dollar, as the US agrees to politically drive gold higher to benefit the IMF? And by extention, world dollar reserves as expressed in dollar debt! Will the US be forced to drive it's own dollar down against gold in an attempt to save it's reserve status? Dynamic times, indeed! FOA-----------


As opposite as it seems, the BOE is selling gold to soften the dollar exit for their members, not to bring their gold ratio in line for entry! They are spliting fron the US because the gold / dollar game is lost. Now from #5699:

-----------The "dollar reserve system" is truly in trouble.
With the IMF gold sales in doubt, or delayed. And the EURO / BIS factions blocking any new gold. New gold cannot be found to maintain the backing of collateral for existing paper shorts and the massive liquidity they provide. The UK is directly in the middle of this as the LBMA would all
but "disappear" if world dollar liquidity were to shrink from a higher gold price!

Notice what the Bank Of England said: "It also said that eligible bidders will be limited to members of the London Bullion Market Association and central banks and monetary institutions holding gold accounts with the Bank of England." Truly, the IMF / Dollar faction alliance is
failing, with each now about to support it's own entities! The BOE will most definitely back the LBMA first and foremost with fresh collateral!---------------------

I an going to post this then continue with PH in LA as it all ties in. thanks FOA


Christine
@SteveH--who will John Q Public blame
Great comments. The public is unaware of what is going on, largely due to propaganda by the internationlists delivered through the media.
Who will the masses blame when this starts to unfold, as it already is with rising interest rates.


That is a really good question/issue. Via manipulation
of the media that is constant, you can bet the masses
will be led to blame the wrong people. What comes to my
mind right now is they will be told to blame the Middle
East, and oil industry. People are already mad their gas
prices have gone up 50%. Listen to who they blame for
that. If we do get the gasoline shortages I suspect at
the same time as dollar devaluation against oil/gold,
gasoline could soar to $6/gallon or even much
higher--who are they going to blame for that? And the media will only throw fuel on that fire. Similiarly I imagine gold will be blamed in some way also. The real
culprits will walk away free.


THX-1138
Possible Motive of Chinese Embassy Bombing
This is a post I found on the KITCO FORUM.


Date: Tue May 11 1999 13:21
kapex (Worldnetdaily.com) ID#275170:
Copyright � 1999 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TUESDAY MAY 11 1999
The mother of all conspiracies By Jon E. Dougherty � 1999 WorldNetDaily.com
As the drip of information about Chinese theft of U.S. nuclear secrets slowly became a crescendo and threatened to turn into a landslide, the anticipation of full disclosure by key congressional players seemed almost palpable. Over the past couple of weeks, you could feel the momentum building. Bill Clinton was finally within reach, and not for something as sultry, or -- as it turns out -- as ordinary as sex. No, some congressmen were beginning to utter the "T" word -- treason -- when they began speaking privately about the Clinton administration and Chinese espionage. Even this past weekend, host Tim Russert of MSNBC was able to extract an admission of guilt from Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, who said, yes, the Chinese stole our nuclear technology and,
yes, Bill Clinton knew about it in advance. Man. A scandal tailor-made in heaven for conservatives. But it was too late. The Chinese Embassy in Belgrade had already been bombed. Now, suddenly, the opportunity to get the Chinese to cooperate with U.S. agents investigating the alleged thefts had abruptly ended. When the walls of the Chinese Embassy came crashing down, so too did our chance to
find out what really happened. At least, that's how the Clinton administration may spin this. You can just hear the excuse rolling off the lips of Clinton spinmeisters now, can't you? "Darn it. You know, the Chinese were just about
to tell us everything we wanted to know regarding this espionage thing. But since we accidentally bombed their embassy, now they aren't talking to us." Thank you, Joe Lockhart. If you don't think that this administration is capable of striking a deal with the Chinese to let U.S. planes bomb their embassy, so that both countries can "suddenly" develop "differences" which would prevent full
disclosure in the nuclear espionage scandal, then you haven't been paying much attention. Clinton is not only capable of this level of chicanery, there are already people who are actively talking about it. Yesterday during Rush
Limbaugh's program, he read an email from MSNBC's Jay Severin, in which Severin suggested just such a conspiracy. The more I thought about it, the more plausible I think it is.
To dismiss this theory out of hand, you'd have to have already made your mind up about a number of other implausible things. For instance, you would already have to believe that the Central Intelligence Agency is so inept, they couldn't identify the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. You'd also have to believe that U.S. weaponry is so bad that we could accidentally send four bombs into the embassy using laser-guided technology. Then, you'd have to assume that
Bill Clinton and the Chinese have had absolutely no relationship whatsoever for the past six years. Plus, you'd have to discount all the hard evidence showing Chinese financial contributions to the Clinton/Gore reelection campaign in 1996. Next, you'd have to believe that neither Clinton, nor any of his spokesmen, have ever lied to you. Good luck with that one. Finally, what with the amount of information already released about China's spying activities at our nuclear weapons labs, you'd have to believe that people like Rep. Chris Cox, R-Calif., really didn't have any hard information that was damaging or harmful to national security. But, since most Americans have already found out
that at least some damage has been done due to Chinese spying, there goes that excuse. Nobody hates conspiracy theories worse than me. But you've got to admit: with this administration, anything is possible and certainly anything
that would involve collusion with the Chinese government. The benefits, besides the effective death of the China spy scandal, would be almost as damaging as the theft of technology. Beijing would no doubt squeeze even more concessions on trade, human rights, and technology transfers from the Clinton White House, for agreeing to allow U.S. planes to kill a few Chinese citizens. You have to remember that communists don't consider life as valuable as we do. And, Chinese leaders don't have to depend on polls, focus groups, sound bites and spin control to stay in power. So, there it is -- the mother of all conspiracies. Is it true?
Who knows? But, the more important question ought to be, is it even possible? We're dealing with the Clinton administration. Therefore, the answer to the last question should be obvious.
THX-1138
Clinton likely to be impeached again
A possible collapse of the Stock Market would be the Second Impeachment of Bill Clinton for Treason!
If lying about sex isn't considered a High Crime and Misdeamenor, what about Treason?

Now I really am glad I have Gold.
FOA
PH in LA (5/11/99; 9:59:21MDT - Msg ID:5920)
Hello PH,
Thanks for your consideration.

I'll start with one very important statement, "the gold market is cornered"! When one reads your Clarification post it becomes evident that the "gold card" was never played. Or was it?

During the last number of years, possibly most of the 90s, the gold market was expanded tremendously. The result was that the holders of "paper gold" and "physical gold", as a group, now own more gold than exists! Is no wonder that the "technical analysis" and "supply / demand" "investment managers" are in a shambles to explain the workings of this new market. Truly, as said before, they are commodity analysis, not political currency analysis. For them, a cornered market must be soaring to reflect the imbalance of longs and shorts. Now can one understand that gold, the political money, is managed on a world scale for the purpose of control of currencies.

From the beginning, the BIS knew that if gold ownership was spread far and wide by leasing from a few European banks, one day, gold would control the value of the dollar. Today, the major longs, that are the recipients of all of that expanded gold, now control the bullion banks, and quite possibly, the CBs. All of this through the threat of delivery that the act of playing the "oil gold card" would "demand"!

Is it then, any wonder, that the quite, cool, suffering longs, watch as the Swiss, the IMF the BOE, all struggle to sell gold in an effort to only "maintain" the credibility of the shorts? All done in a desperate act to save the IMF and by design, the dollar! In this light, was there really a problem if gold falls?

A fine gentleman I know has said, "the Euro, it be a success, for I do see it written in the wind"

FOA


THX-1138
Continuing support for Gold Conspiracy
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mining/conspiracy.htmThought this was a nice little article.
It starts out sounding like it's heckling Gold Conspiracy Theorists but then leads towards agreement.
tlc
clarification
I have a question about Aristotle's post #5933 where he states " in the U.S., the Treasury reports approximately 8,000 tonnes of Gold, valued at $42.2222,
which constitutes approximately 50% of the U.S. foreign exchange reserves. Because the U.S.
dollar has been widely used and accepted as the world's reserve currency, the U.S. has found
little need to hold the paper of other international parties. And because it makes no sense for the
U.S. to hold dollars in reserve (it simply doesn't work that way), the Gold is a large percentage
of the total reserves, with the paper being a small mix of euro legacies (marks), yen, and swiss
francs, among others. ---Aristotle ". Is the gold held by the treasury available to the federal reserve system or are the fed and treasury different entities?

thanks tlc
Chicken man
tlc
Look at their websites ...frb is "dot" org....treasury is "dot" gov.....one is not part of the gov by no means!....bankers of the world own the fed
USAGOLD
FOA...
Do you remember this extraordinary discussion between me and Another of a little over one year ago? I will post this for those gathered at this table. My questions are surrounded by ** stars **. There is little doubt that the very same questions Another and I wrestled with then are still on the table today. It appears to me that the situation in Britain is much as Another described it and I paraphrase -- Britain is a lost country. It is a country caught between two worlds. Your pereception is correct, FOA. Right or wrong, I believe that Britain does not have the chips to bring to the euro table. Too many countries have sacrificed too much to toe the Maastricht line. They will not react lightly to another country being admitted under looser guidelines -- a 7 per cent dilution in a 30% world. I believe the BOE sale is an attempt to bail somebody out -- I don't know who -- but probably a major counter-party. There is too much of an aura of desperation in the words and acts of the BOE and the British Exchequer for it to be political only. It is interesting to me that in my conversations today with some of my more astute clients, a knowledbeable commodities broker and an international bullion trader -- the expressed opinion was that they will believe the British are selling when the first ounce of gold trades hands. Being a student of human nature, FOA, I though I would pass that along. The international trader told me that if the gold goes to LBMA and never reaches the public market, it is the irrefutable sign that the bull market has arrived.

I refer all to the post below from May 5, 1998.

----------------------

5/5/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) USAGOLD QUESTIONS IN ITALICS

Mr. Kosares,

A few thoughts for you, as the questions are asked?

** It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did
for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and
international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even
tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the Euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of
regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? **

Sir,

I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply
say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed.
Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets
lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid,
enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people
escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that
comes to maturity today.

New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide
currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it
represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the
reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very
same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to
die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of
currencies here, the transition will be brutal!

As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the
manufactures of profit!"

** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**

Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did
allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US
citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar!
Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market
economy".

*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has
Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan?
And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **

Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would
build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the
Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the
American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead
Japan.

**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed.
Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **

Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!

***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it
simply a speculation on his part. ***

The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was
leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.

**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**

Perhaps, "who control them"?

**The Swiss? Yes.

**The eurocentral banks? Yes.

**Who does BIS really represent? "old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without
war".

**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? answered.

**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe? Yes.

Sir, there is much more to this, but we talk over time, yes? I will be away for perhaps ten days. We speak again.

Thank You
SteveH
June gold now...
Climbing. $279.20.

Me thinks Sherlock needs to be called. I believe he now stays at the Baker Street Hotel near Baker Street tube station. You know down from Madame Toussaut(?)'s and down a few blocks. See the man named Dr. Watson. He knows Holmes and if anybody can get him in on this he can. Be sure to fill him in on all the facts that you know. I heard that he said, "If you eliminate the impossible, all that remains is the answer"...or some such rot...anyway, do see the man named Watson. We do need him now....Holmes I mean.

Tell Watson too that Greenspan is on the board of the BIS, I think. Although frankly, I don't really know how all this conspiracy rot can be going on when everybody knows its going on. Somebody beside us must be in the dark, but it sure doesn't feel right. Me thinks we need Holmes.
Chicken man
B C -OTC options
Piced up on one of the gold reports about option expirey influencing the price that day....it was near the same day as last trading day......could not figure that out cause I've traded PM options and it usually the second Fri....(american style)....then I read about the OTC option market trades European style....only can exercise on the last trading day of the option.....got two option expirey days to watch....the OTC is bigger by far
This might "strike" your fancy:
http://optionsanalysis.com/inewf.htm
All the strikes, daily vol,OI,prices for ALL the things one may have a itch to trade...
Cavan Man
Acronyms
Greetings to all. I am not quite up to speed yet. I understand POG and BOE but what of the rest? Thank you. This is a most interesting forum.
Gandalf the White
Thanks Chicken Man
OTC Options "EVERYTHING" is sure correct at that webpage you suggested. I now need a course in reading all that technical stuff ! I sure can see the items that Peter was talking about too. So much to learn and so little time.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
acronyms
Sure are difficult at times, are not they !
BIS = Bank for International Settlements
OTC = Over the Counter
OI = Open Interest
more as we see them.
<;-)
Chicken man
Oldie but a goody---Euro 101
Old bookmark.....but interesting.....EMI, EMU,who got the gold...sort of stuff
http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Speeches/Sbc/Sbc.htm

Enjoy....
tlc
Thanks Chicken Man
I did think the frb and treasury were two entities. So does the Federal Reserve really have any gold backing the $US? Would the BIS have claim to any frb assets due to our balance of payments deficit? I think I have much to learn.

thanks for the help so far tlc.
Chicken man
Let's do that the easy way...!
http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Speeches/Sbc/Sbc.htmI'm learning.....slow.....but learning ...
SteveH
June gold now asking $279.40...
I figured it out. Mozel isn't Another or FOA. He just lurks here as I lurk there. That is put to bed.

Next, here is one from that other site worthy of a repost here:

Date: Tue May 11 1999 15:05
Fergus (Gold, "The Manipulators", and the War on Gold) ID#14431:
Copyright � 1999 Fergus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FOXMAN's 23:56 yesterday reminded me of something that I wanted to share with you all. ( In his post, among other things, he stressed the importance of realizing that the manipulators have their concerns, as well, not just us goldbugs. )

I was a professional mediator for 12 years ( I even have a Master's Degree in Conflict Management, earned in the early 80s ) , and FOXMAN's post reminded me of something I had forgotten: people in conflict ( and we are in conflict with those who fear gold ) tend to feel their own weaknesses more than their own strengths. And in feeling that way, they tend to attribute the opposite condition to the other side.

In other words, if "I" am feeling weak, it must be because "you" are strong. Time after time, in separate meetings with parties in a mediation, I'd hear, amidst much bluster, "They think that we are afraid of moving forward on this case... They think this, they think that...", etc. When, in fact, the other side was thinking nothing of the sort--and I knew, too, 'cause the other side had told me in separate, confidential discussions what they really were thinking.

The bottom line is that BOTH sides were usually feeling their weaknesses more than their strengths. I must remember this. Here I have felt lousy and powerless, because of the gross manipulations of the POG over the years and up to this day.

Yet what I can choose to focus on instead is the weaknesses and anxieties of those on the other side of this conflict. And the reasons for the manipulators to be scared to death are legion. Here are a few:

1 ) As huge as the manipulation is, demand for the physical is strong, exceeds mined supply by about 1,500 tonnes per year at this point, and is soaring. Some entities are buying all this gold; the prospect for renewed, additional vigorous demand from Asia has got to be terrifying.

2 ) If indeed, the short overhang is anywhere from 4,000 to 14,000 tonnes ( I'll bet it's on the high end of that range ) , and growing every day, then the fragility of my position ( as a manipulator ) is being driven home at an increasing, accelerating rate. There is no way that gold will lose, in the end.

3 ) GATA is on to me. And they've gotten the U.S. Congress on their side. All my future moves are now seen in the clear light.

4 ) Who else can I get to agree to talk the price of gold down? Who's left? The Russians, Chinese, Japanese, the Euro countries? The oil countries? Yikes!

5 ) Y2K may ( will? ) limit the extent to which I can manipulate the markets, and may well cause a financial panic. Given the leverage extant in the system, and shocking level of derivatives in the U.S. and around the world, any meaningful level of withdrawl of funds from the fractional reserve banking system will bring it crashing down.

I could go on and on, as I'm sure others here can and will better than I.

My point is this: The manipulators have a ton of crap to worry about, and are undoubtedly feeling increasing amounts of pain in this conflict. Us goldbugs have only one worry: lasting long enough to gain the fruits of our insight and perseverance.

I've noticed something else about this war: holding gold equities increases the pain I feel. I feel more vulnerable to the machinations of the manipulators when the prices of my gold equity holdings gyrate around as the conflict roars; I feel even more so when I've held the juniors.

So, here's my prescription for peace of mind, in this order: buy physical, take delivery, relax, smile, and watch.

The war will be won. Not only do $5 or $10 dollar price fluctuations mean nothing when you are possess the golden yellow, the mere act of buying and taking delivery increases the pain on the opposition and accelerates the end of the manipulation. What a happy combination!

IDCIBM. And taking delivery

--end--

Finally, we are in the 3rd generation of posters ambiance. When we sensed gold would go up, Another and FOA talked in riddles and parables. Other sites discussed markets and other issues. Next came the recent rise in the XAU and then talk of a bull in gold increases in fury. Then the BOE issue came about. First there was shock but now I believe people realize that the 'flare' is extinguishing and we are coming to the end of the gold bear and soon to witness the gold bull. Spell crescendo.
Al Fulchino
Thanks/Education/ and Oil
Thanks to all for the excellent posts. I am learning here from you all, and you don't even know it.(s)


Education, I never force my children to do well in school, because it, the pressure drowns out their natural curiosity. Now that we have the Intenet leading us to places such as this forum, it will be easier and easier to home school our children (which we did for awhile). We are in a dynamic time, change is exciting and fast. Our children can be free to learn and see for themselves in a way as never before seen. I know this is of subject per se, but then again it really is not. We all here are learning.
What a great thing.

As far as the oil/gasoline thread. I have heard in the last two weeks that Venezuela and Mexico have not cut back as they declared they would. Venezuela is in dire need of cash. My hunch is this. If other countries are serious about shrinking supplies then perhaps Venezuela refineries will have....well shall we say mysterious problems, fires etc. I am not into conspiracies, but I believe in man's ability to do ill. Do not discount anything I tell my children, and I say it here to you (although I am sure I preach to the chior)Some oil companies are holding off purchases hoping that prices will come down some...wonder what happens if there are more fires etc.? The oil that they are waiting to buy will get pricey, will it not?

Thanks again for all your posts.
canamami
A Brief Theory: Gold and Political Conspiracies
Let us assume, solely for the sake of this brief discussion, that the primary object of gold manipulation is to delay the inevitable economic/market downturn. The underlying motive is thus the securing of a temporary benefit. Who would benefit politically from such a temporary delay? I submit the Clintons. Bill's main defence against impeachment is the perceived strength of the economy/market ("it's the economy stupid" a la Carville). Also, he leaves as the President of Good Economic Times. Hilary gets the Senate seat in New York due to the alleged boom, and is in striking distance of the White House if the circumstances allow. She is thus compensated for years of humiliation (a philological breakthrough: What word should be coined for a female cuckold - a "hilary!"). I believe Bill is a true leftist masquerading as a centrist. If the Republicans win the presidency and hold the Congress in 2000 - as is likely - they wear the "crash" for 20 years, just as the Republicans and the Canadian Tories were destroyed for a generation because of the Depression (wrong place at the wrong time; the Canadian Tories got it a lot worse than the Republicans). If Gore wins, well that's his legacy, not Bill's.

What do the English get out of it? They get to exercise world power one last time, vicariously through the US. Also, Labourites either laugh at or fear gold, hence what's the loss for the gain in prestige by being the main junior partner to the Americans. (Remember: the Brits fear losing "the special relationship" with the US which has been a cornerstone of UK policy since the War. Suez taught the Brits they are powerless without the US, and they fear loss of influence with the US - note how they were devastated when Clinton attended the Russian celebrations of the 50th Anniversary of the end of the War, but not the British celebration.) Also, they hedge their bets in case they choose not to pursue the Euro(pean) option. (For example, Conrad Black has been promoting the idea of the UK joining NAFTA, in a sense recreating the old North Atlantic Triangle of the War-era.)

Well, that's my conspiracy rant for the month.
BC
Posts 5909/5916
Aragorn III (5/11/99; 9:29:48MDT - Msg ID:5916)

Aragon III, Thank you for your kind words.

I look forward to your posts, because economics and finance are not my strong topics. Your comments, along with those of Michael, FOA and Another, and other fine minds here at the forum have helped me to make some sense of this "gold game."

I also appreciate your sense of humor: "got bread crumbs?" ;>)

BC
BC
BC - OTC options
Chicken man (5/11/99; 20:17:31MDT - Msg ID:5958)

Thanks for the URL for OptionsAnalysis

BC
Tomcat
The Sting of the Century

canamami, thanks for you last post.

I need to light up. Instead of trying to figure out who controls who in this gold-power game, I'd like to toss in some speculation mixed with a little fiction.

It is clear from FOA that the powers behind the golden throne are the barons of oil. Could this be the silent secretive Saudis?

Could it be that the Saudis went to the BIS years ago and said "lets sting those greedy bullion banks and dollar kings. If you'll loan out your gold, and keep the price down, we'll get it back via oil sales and when the right time comes we'll catch the shorters with their pants down."

The BIS boys, remembering being stung by the US in the 70s, jump in. Leasing and shorting go wild.

Just as the IMFers are getting stung and the BIS boys see their old power coming back, the Saudis whip out their gold/oil card and let the BIS boys know that the sting is on them and that the Saudis are now calling the shots.

Just as the Saudis take control, the US oil interests let the Saudis know that that the US has used all of its leasing/short money to become y2k compliant and the last day of Saudi control will be Dec 31, 1999. Oil power then shifts to the US who agree to sell oil to Europe in exchange for Euros!

Got sting repellant?
Voyager
To All
I wish to retract my somewhat glib statements earlier regarding the Bilderbergers and the New World order, globalism, one world government, or whatever one would choose to call it. I listened tonight to Charles Phillips and James Herson (sp) on the radio. The discussion focused on executive orders, presidential decrees, and their relationship to the events currently unfolding in America and the world. For me, it brought together many of the thoughts expressed here and other sources both now and over several years.

Tonight I am just plain scared. Our constitution, freedom, our sovereignty is in very serious jeopardy. I have loathed Bill Clinton from day one. He is absolute evil. I don't what the answer is, but I do know that it is time for another Boston Teaparty.

Voyager
Steve H
Made my last post before reading previous posts.

Will take your prescription and go to bed.
Tomorrow is another day. Thanks
The Invisible Hand
Repo's
@ Aristotle

Thank you for post 5933 replying to my post 5930.

You are writing that I was using the concept of reserves as the foreign exchange reserves that central banks use for the purpose of providing some means of international credibility for their currency and for tweaking their exchange rates if intervention on the open market becomes necessary. These reserves are some mix of international currencies and Gold.

I understand that central banks influence interest rates by buying and selling bonds. Are these bonds part of other reserves of central banks?

My personal library contains Von Mises's Human Action and The Theory of Money and Credit. Could I find the answer in these books or has the whole system changed since 1971 so that von Mises's books which were published before that date are no longer usable? - The IVH

SteveH
June gold now...
$279.40.

Oregon Geezer
Voyager message #5971
Sir, I agree with your message completely. Every aspect of this administration has been a study in disasters --- personal, institutional, military, political, whatever. As the saying goes, "The fish stinks from the head first." Take that, Mr. Clinton. Couple your comments with millions who have similar feelings and add the uncertainty of the effects of Y2K and you got a whole bunch of nervous, scared and frustrated folks out there. How long folks will put up with this state is a question that soon needs to be answered instead of some silly and useless White House summit meeting about youth violence.
I'm ready to stock up on the Lipton's and join the Party.
TownCrier
Lies, More Lies and Plain Old B.S. (Is the LBMA in trouble?)
Professor von Braun
The Rocket School of Economics

May 10th, 1999

We have made mention before of the discrepancy between the supply and
demand numbers for gold published by Goldfields Mineral Services (GFMS)
and the published turnover on the London Bullion and Metals exchange
(LBMA). This "difference" is huge. Even though this turnover dropped
to 27 million ounces per day according to recent announcements, this
number still amounts to 900 tonnes per day. The entire worlds known above
ground gold reserves are traded two and one half times per year (????) Yet
the supply /demand numbers are estimated at 4000 tonnes on the demand side
and 2600 tonnes on the supply side per annum.

The LBMA numbers include paper contracts and the percentage of what is
what (paper vs physical) re the daily turnover has never been revealed.
The daily turnover on the New York Comex is minute when compared to the
LBMA.

It has been known for some time that there exists an unknown large short
position in the gold market that has resulted from the sale of leased gold
into the market (with the intention of buying it back at a lower price)
and these sales have certainly made up the estimated 40% shortfall on the
supply side.

The continual noises coming out of the Bank of England about large
potential sales have been going on for some time. Gordon Brown, the
Chancellor of the Exchequer, (a very high faluting name) has been
bleating for some time. Pre Euro days he was insistent that the ECB would
be a seller (didn't happen), then it was the Swiss sale (has not happened
yet), then it was the IMF sale (still has not happened), and now it is the
Bank of England itself. So what gives here? What are these people
actually up to ?

If ALL Central Banks sold all the gold reserves they had over a period of
fifteen years (1600 x 15 = 24,000) there would still be a shortfall re the
supply/demand situation. In other words in fifteen years time gold would
still be in short supply re the demand side of the equation. Fifteen
years is not a long period of time in the over all scheme of things. Gold
as a currency and symbol of wealth has been around for several thousand
years and as much as Gordon Brown may prefer otherwise, this is not about
to change.

What the dear old Chancellor may not be telling us is that gold can not
simply be produced out of thin air as can paper currencies. All these
bleatings are telling us that something is not right here. What could it
be ?

Regardless of the rhetoric there is no real reason to demolish the gold
market. A falling gold price is not reflective of the true market supply
and demand situation.

The members of the LBMA are of course bullion banks, many of whom are
directly connected to the old traditional banking houses of Europe and the
U.K. Not much goes on in Europe that these people don't know about. The
same connections go directly to the Bank of England and the Federal
Reserve and the same players names appear as part owners of both of these
institutions. In a sense dear old Gordon is a proxy for the LBMA members
and any statements coming from him, or his office, should be regarded with
suspicion at the very least. The wisdom of pre- announcing a sale of
anything into a rising market is not exactly a prudent strategy. Its a bit
like Ford announcing a discount on current models because they believe
next years cars will be cheaper still. The buyers will wait.

Surely the Bank of England has a fiduciary duty to it's shareholders
(bullion banks) to obtain the maximum benefit from the sale of any of it's
reserves. Unless of course dear old Gordon knows something that we don't.

What is known at present is that there is a shortage of physical metal in
the market place, as demonstrated by the supply demand numbers issued by
GFMS and seconded by the World Gold Council. What is not known is the
reality of the magnitude of the published numbers re the turnover on the
LBMA. (How is it possible to trade the entire known gold reserves 2 1/2
times per year when at least 40% of that amount is in vaults somewhere?).
This number becomes even more absurd if one looks at the estimates of the
amount of actual physical metal available to be traded.

How much of this turnover is physical metal and how much is paper
contracts ? This is the question.

If there was a potential problem, then the members of the LBMA would be
the first to be aware of it and being based in London, would have to
advise the B of E at some stage. London*s big problem is its decline as
the financial center of Europe, an event currently unfolding as the ECB
begins to exert is new found power and financial transactions are moved to
European cities.

The only problem the LBMA and its members could be facing would be one of
delivery of physical metal. There simply is not a lot of gold out there
available for immediate delivery. The rush to embrace all forms of
derivative contracts and trade these "things" willy nilly as they say,
has led to one near collapse of recent times and I am referring to the
Long Term Capital (LTCM) debacle. But messing with paper contracts that
are dependent upon delivery of a physical commodity is a different ball
game. Instructing lenders to deliver a capital injection to LTCM is
different from instructing members to deliver physical metal to the metals
market. Not so easy to do, old chap.

While most look at these announcements of potential official sector sales
(the ones that don't materialize), as further evidence of gold's now
redundant role, perhaps it may be a desperate attempt to induce the
appearance of actual physical metal into a market that may be in deep
smellies. We all know that politicians and central bankers have several
things in common and the inability to recognize reality is one of them.

The belief in their own ability to manipulate reality is another, as is
underestimating their opponents intelligence.

One would sincerely hope that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is not
involved in advising NATO as to what actually is a legitimate target. It
seems that the same sort of arrogance which results from a false belief in
ones ability to lie ones way out of a screw up appears common to both. As
does the refusal to acknowledge the original mistake. Mistaking the
Chinese Embassy for some legitimate Yugoslavian military target may be
symptomatic of an ability to get it wrong in other areas as well. It was a
mistake, albeit a serious one, of "officialdom", the same
"officialdom" that seems determined to mess with the gold market.

These recent gurgles and hollow bleatings by the good Chancellor may be a
clear signal that it is time to go long the physical gold market and be
cautious on futures contracts that are dependent upon delivery sometime in
the future.

Professor von Braun is a guest contributor to www.lemetropolecafe.com and
may be contacted by email at profvonb@aol.com
Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission
Christine
In the 70's, U.S. was well on way with alternative energy and conservation
FAO says this has been in the works since the 70's. I would still argue that this is not a BIS versus IMF plan, although some oil states may believe that. I find it interesting that euroland, without much natural energy resources, will be dealing with the oil settlements. The rest of the Western nations can ramp up to alternative energy with some difficult adjustments. Also, I do not believe this is first and foremost about oil,--it was likely seen as an opportunity to accomplish other goals. If you think about it, we were already well on the way to alternative energies and conservation in the 1970's. The whole situation with the oil states that FAO describes could have been handled fairly painlessly back then. That is not what this is about.
TownCrier
Atlanta Fed's inflation gauges show April surge
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/rr.htmlInflation...surge...oh my!
TownCrier
Russian and world markets rocked as PM fired
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/nc.htmlStability? What's stability? Glad we're an oasis of prosperity!
TownCrier
Rubin to resign, Summers to succeed him-source
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/sw.htmlGettin' out while the gettin's good...
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report
MARKET REPORT (5/12/99): Gold opened higher in New York this morning after an
active tug of war in foreign markets overnight. Standard Bank credits "strong physical
offtake" primarily from the Mid East and India and "dealer short covering a feature and
early trade buying and fund short covering in New York" for supporting the market at these
levels. At the same time strong technical resistance at the $281 level keeps the yellow metal
from moving higher. With the whiff of inflation in the air and the Y2K clock in locked
count-down, gold seems to be holding its own despite the constant barrage of negative
press from its detractors in the financial media and political establishment. Increasingly the
continuous targeting of gold appears to be an effort to keep the investors worldwide from
going to the yellow metal in the face of growing investor concern over these problems.
Physical demand continues to run at all time highs. The public appears to be unmoved by
these efforts.

Joining the growing Congressional chorus opposed to official gold sales, four U.S.
senators, including prominent Democrat Tom Daschle, wrote Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin voicing their disapproval of the British proposal, backed by the Clinton
administration, to sell some of the International Monetary Fund's gold. They proposed
instead that the IMF offer the gold as security for loans. In a statement that deserves some
scrutiny and analysis, Homestake CEO Jack Thompson said that since the UK is believed
to be one of the biggest lenders of gold, the announced auction will not have much impact
on the physical market because the gold is essentially already in the market. He said the
problem in the gold market is not central bank selling but central bank lending. These
comments, the first I've seen which that identify Britain as a major gold lender, bring a new
perspective to Britain's recent activity in the gold market.

Meanwhile in other markets, the euro was jolted by the ousting of Russian Prime Minister
Yevgeny Primakov. Russian President Boris Yeltsin said Primakov relied too much on
support from the International Monetary Fund to solve Russia' s economic ills. ( I would
read that as bearish for the dollar, but apparently the market is more concerned with loan
repayments to Berlin and the Balkans War than the effects on Wall Street). Rumors are
circulating European markets that, with Primakov history, Russia could pull out of the
Kosovo talks. The bond market continued to get hammered by inflation and interest rate
news with poor demand for the five year note triggering selling across the curve.
Economists polled by Reuters say the Fed will shift to tightening "bias" by year end. The
prospect of higher interest could effect trading in stocks negatively in the days and weeks
ahead. Also, don't forget the inflation numbers at the end of the week.

That's it for today. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
TownCrier
Brokers Probed for Improper Trades
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990512/trading_fr_1.htmlThink about it... Do you REALLY have a fighting chance against these guys? I'll stick with gold, thankyou.
TownCrier
Bridge Gold News
Moscow--May 11--The forex reserves of the Central Bank of Russia increased
significantly in April due to considerable sales of the bank's platinum and
palladium stocks, a senior source at the bank said today. Limits imposed on
domestic banks on the ruble market have also contributed to the rise, while
active purchases of domestic gold by the bank saw gold reserves increase as
well, the official added. By Sergei Padalko and Oleg Kirsanov, BridgeNews

New York--May 11--HSBC Holdings intends to keep Republic New York Corp's
precious metals holdings, said James Cleave, the former president and CEO
of HSBC Americas and the executive in charge of integrating the 2 banks
here in the US. He said that the precious metals operations are "an
important part of our business." By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

San Francisco--May 11--The gold industry is looking at a cooperative study
of central bank gold sales in an effort to try to find a better way to
manage those sales, Homestake Mining Co. CEO Jack Thompson told Bridge News
today. The industry is looking for an academic to study the issue, and is
seeking ways to minimize the uncertainty that has had such a negative
influence on the world gold market, he said. By Cristine Denver, BridgeNews

Toronto--May 11--The Ontario Securities Commission has charged former Bre-X
chief geologist and vice-chairman John Felderhof with 8 counts of insider
trading. According to the indictment, Felderhof authorized, permitted or
acquiesced in Bre-X issuing misleading or wrong gold resource calculations
for the Busang, Indonesia property between June 1996 and February 1997.
Four counts arise out of this complaint. By Will Harvie, Bridge News

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
FOA
WASHINGTON � U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is to resign
ALL:
Will the gold market see changes in the future because of this? You bet!!
TownCrier
Rubin to resign
CoBra(too)
RR resigns...
In re TC's for his post on May 3, re GS IPO "Ringing the bell at the top" I've posted my thanks for the reminder and concluded (msg.ID 5526) "Let's watch RR's resignation - cashing in his chips (in trust I trust)- together, imminently.
TownCrier
Free trade in peril (World Trade Organisation in turmoil)
FOA
USAGOLD report
Michael,

-----------Joining the growing Congressional chorus opposed to official gold sales, four U.S. senators, including prominent Democrat Tom Daschle, wrote Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin voicing their disapproval of the British proposal, backed by the Clinton administration, to sell
some of the International Monetary Fund's gold.----------

I wonder if he quit after they sent him this letter? Now that Britain is closing the books for some of their "preferred" bullion banks, the whole game is washing out! Now we must look at the timing of his resignation (BC, your BOE sales and comex contract correlation) for the fireworks to start!

Also,
Thanks for the reprint of Another's discussion. You are right, in that context, Britain is in the middle of a bad situation. FOA
TownCrier
Economic trouble as Primakov goes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_341000/341722.stmA thorough article that plumbs the depths of the Russian difficulties. If I told them once, I've told them a thousand times, "You can't succeed at economic reforms unless your money is tied to gold." They'll learn...
TownCrier
Winter Wheat Crop Down 14 Percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990512/crop_repor_1.htmlBetween Wall Street profits and Government bailout packages, why go to the trouble of planting a crop?

The real economy is getting whacked for real.
Christine
Robert Rubin resigns 2 weeks before JUNE
This timing also fits with the JUNE rumor first heard on the goldnet in Feb, 99, that gold would be allowed to rise in June, 99. First, oil suddenly starts to move in March, Goldman Sachs announces IPO for May, and now this. All the maneuvering also appears to be to get out of gold shorts and into euros, gold. The June rumor is attributed to German Suarez, who is head of Peruvian CB, and is member and assistant chair of big IMF committee on currency.
Christine
JUNE
Left out two important events relative to June, 99. Most important is launching of euro in Jan 99. Second is Bosnia war, which appears to be war to hold euro down while internationalists get their dollars changed into euros at good rate. If the war wraps up about the time euro starts to appreciate, then it will confirm this as a major purpose of the war.
Goldfly
ANOTHER/FOA - BIS and $280 Gold

As the POG is drifting below the $280 mark, I wonder about ANOTHER's assertion that the BIS would buy Gold in the open below that mark. Is that still a likelyhood? Or are we near enough the end-game that they'll just let it ride?

GF
NORTH OF 49
Christine
Now, if we could just establish if German Suarez is a Bilderberg or not, we'ld really have something to chew on,no?
BC
Possible Motive of Chinese Embassy Bombing
THX-1138 (5/11/99; 18:27:44MDT - Msg ID:5950)

THX-1138,

I found these two news stories today that follow up your post yesterday from Kitco. More pieces falling into place to form the big picture?

From today's Investors Business Daily (written yesterday):

Chinese Protests Quieter As Officials Talk Peace
Date: 5/12/99
Demonstrations outside the U.S. Embassy in Beijing ebbed after China's state-run media for the first time aired U.S. and NATO apologies for bombing the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia. State TV planned to air the funerals of three journalists killed in the attack. President Jiang Zemin met Russian envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin, who plans to offer new proposals to end the Kosovo fighting.
(C) Copyright 1999 Investors Business Daily, Inc.


From today's Drudge Report (written this morning):

CHINA: YOU'LL PAY US BACK WITH POLICY CHANGES

China expects the U.S. to make significant concessions on sensitive military, trade and diplomatic issues as payback for last weekend's NATO bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade, the FINANCIAL TIMES is reporting on Wednesday.

China is seeking conciliatory measures from the U.S., including dismissing allegations that a Chinese spy passed U.S. nuclear secrets to China.

FT reporters James Harding and Steven Fidler quote a senior foreign policy advisor to Chinese President Jiang Zemin: "It is now up to the U.S... to take the initiative to get the relationship back to normal."
JA
THX-1138
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mining/conspiracy.htmThanks for sharing the article you refer to in post (5/11/99; 18:59:30MDT - Msg ID:5953)

The following quote from that article makes another point on why the UK may want to manipulate the gold price, Would you rather have 300 billion losing value or 4 billion losing value? Easy choice.

"George believes that one effect of the sale of UK gold is that it forestalled a further crash in US bonds. The UK gold is worth $4bn, mere peanuts compared to the $300bn which is the value of UK holdings of US bonds. The belief here is that if the safe haven of debt is destroyed, investors may elect to put their capital back into a traditional store of wealth, and that means gold."
Peter Asher
JA
This is an extremly interesting possibility for the illogical antics of the current gold scene. Gold as a 'loss leader'.--- Defintaly something to mull over.
Christine
@BC--China wants ticket to WTO as payback?
Hi BC. Great quotes. The internationalists want China in the WTO. Clinton and Greenspan have really been pushing for China to get in. Greenspan has pushed indirectly--remember his recent comments to Congress--chiding Congress that it must pursue free trade and not be protectionistic, right after Congress had voted not to admit China to WTO. Now the "accidental" bombing of Chinese embassy. It's all getting too blatant, the constant manipulations.
TownCrier
FWN Closing NY Metals: Mixed; Sentiment Continues to Weigh on Gold
New York-May 12-FWN--Gold futures ticked lower again
here today on a bearish sentiment in the aftermath of
recent news about official sales by the United Kingdom,
unable to draw much benefit from the sacking of the Russian
Cabinet and resignation of U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin.
Overall, the metals were described as quiet--other than
early activity in gold--with sources reporting that at times
silver went four and five minutes without trading.
June gold settled $1 lower at $277.80.

"Gold is showing its true stripes by going lower, even
after two momentous news events," said Leonard Kaplan, chief
bullion dealer with LFG Bullion Services. "Everyone believes
it's going a lot lower."
One of the news events was Russian President Boris
Yeltsin's decision to fire his Cabinet. He has appointed
First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin as acting prime
minister after sacking Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. The
other big event today was word that Rubin is stepping
down.
Normally, said Kaplan, these two events might have
supported gold.

But sentiment was hurt Friday when the U.K. Treasury
announced plans to sell 415 tons of gold over the next few
years. This comes after the market was already wrestling
with the likelihood of potential Swiss and International
Monetary Fund sales.
Said Kaplan: "Demand has completely dried up. The
industrial consumers are just buying what they absolutely
have to, because they believe it's going lower. And
investors certainly aren't going to go near it, because they
know Great Britain is going to sell it for 3 1/2 years.
"Even after the news in Russia--which I consider to be
very serious, probably moreso than the Rubin resignation--
gold cannot even rally.
"Everyone knows it's going lower, so why buy now? Why
not wait? That's the uniform opinion right now."

Support for June gold was put at Monday's low of
$276.50, then around $271.50. Resistance is seen around
$280.70 to $281.

Kaplan noted that lease rates have been rising in gold
lately. When this occurs at a time when prices are weak, he
explained, it is a bearish sign indicating "people are
borrowing gold simply to sell it."
Kaplan also noted that statistics from the London
Bullion Market Association point to declining interest in
gold. Data released today showed that the number of ounces
transferred fell 13% from March to 25.2 million, a record low.
"That re-emphasizes the fact that it's deadly quiet," said Kaplan.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

[doesn't this kind of tone accompany the death of the bear?--T.C.]
TownCrier
Fifth Arab Capital Markets Conference Opens in Beirut
Beirut, Lebanon-May 12-FWN/UPI--The Fifth Arab Capital
Markets Conference has opened in Beirut with Saudi calls
to double Arab oil production and Lebanese pledges to end
the country's debts and continue with the post-warreconstruction program.
The three-day conference, which attracted hundreds of
participants from the Arab countries and foreign financial
experts, is meant to help boost inter-Arab investment and
attract foreign capital to the Arab region.
Other issues on the agenda include the emerging market
crisis, the effect of oil price volatility on the economies
of the region and the outlook for investing in the Arab
region and for Arab banking in the next millenium.
Conference organizer Raouf Abou Zaki warned that the
Arab world was passing through a "delicate and worrying
phase," with a stumbling Middle East peace process and Gulf
economies still suffering from the impact of the sharp fall
of oil prices. Growth in Arab non-oil countries alsocontinues to be weak.
Abou Zaki, however, noted that the Arab countries wish
to encourage foreign investment and expand national
investment, including recuperating some of the capital theyhave invested abroad.
Zaki said that to achieve this goal, Arab countries
need to secure a suitable environment to attract such
investments and reactivate economy, by mainly becoming moredemocratic.
At the opening session, Lebanese Prime Minister Selim
Hoss announced that his country was preparing a three-year,
$3.3 billion plan that would secure the continuation of a
post-war reconstruction program and development projects in
deprived areas and boost the industrial and tourismsectors.
Hoss said his government was determined to control his
country's budget deficit, which is estimated to reach 40%this year.
He explained his country's stagnant economy by saying
"Lebanon lost its regional role due to the 1975-90 civil war
and has so far failed to recuperate this role." He also
cited the close link of the Lebanese economy to those of the
Arab and Gulf countries that have faced setbacks in theprevious years.
Lebanese Finance Minister George Korm said Lebanon's
economic and financial recovery was important to the
recovery of the Arab economies in the face of globalization
and repeated Israeli attempts to weaken Arab political andeconomic capabilities.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said the Arab oil-
producing countries were requested to double their oil
production from 20 million barrels per day presently to
nearly 40 million barrels a day by the year 2020 to meetgrowing world demands.
Nuaimi noted that 13 Arab countries, with a population
representing 70% of the Arabs, are considered oil producing
and exporting states, and that the Arab world possesses
nearly 643 billion barrels of crude oil.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
TownCrier
US Treasury chief Rubin resigns, lauded on Wall St
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/7v.htmlWe've apparently spanned "what President Clinton called the world's worst financial crisis in 50 years" to new paradigms in prosperity! Wow! What are the odds?
TownCrier
Tea leaves
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/bat.htmlIMM currencies end down,digest Rubin's resignation
Usul
Thoughts "more precious than gold"
http://w3.nai.net/~bobsalsa/ideas.htmIt is especially important to encourage unorthodox thinking
when the situation is critical: At such moments every new
word and fresh thought is more precious than gold. Indeed,
people must not be deprived of the right to think their own
thoughts. Boris Yeltsin
TownCrier
Amidst the typically glum, "death of the bear"-type news, this one will change your tune
http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/05-10-99.htmlLawyers Charge NATO Leaders Before War Crimes Tribunal
Aristotle
Good show, Usul!
But you forgot to insist that that link is MUST READING for everyone at this round table. Excellent material.

Hey Townie, good catch on that Arab Capital Markets Conference. To see the Saudis calling for a doubling of Arab oil production would seem to indicate a sea-change in my mind. They have flexed their muscles through coordinated production cuts, and now that they have been assured of getting things as they wish (which is still behind the scenes, away from our view), it is now time to buckle down and become the world's principle oil producer. Under supply and demand, it is only natural that the producers would want to meet as much of the world's demand--as long as an honest pay has been secured for an honest product. How else could this be interpreted...without stretching the limits of imagination or non-conspiracy thinking? ---Aristotle
Christine
@FOA--One more puzzle piece--Barrick Gold
Something I was reminded of today. One of the biggest gold market forward sellers, aka gold shorters, is Barrick Gold. Barrick Gold is reportedly short 100's of tons of gold. If I understand correctly, 10x's more derivatives have been leveraged off the forward sales of gold mines such as Barrick's. Barrick Gold has done this against alot of investor sentiment and criticism.(Notice the recent public comments by Barrick's--speculation is Barrick's, a public company--will be bankrupted by what the management/board has done.)

Most importantly, former U.S. President and CIA chief George Bush, and former Canadian PM Brian Mulrooney are both directors on the board of Barrick Gold. This to me means that the current economic crisis has been created by the powerful within our country for their purposes. I have seen George Bush's name on list of the Bilderberg group.
NORTH OF 49
Adding more fuel to the fire!!
Just received this E-mail from Bill Murphy of GATA--


Late in the day today I received a phone call from
London saying that a bombshell is coming out in the
London Financial press in the morning. The essence
of what I was told is that GATA is right on target
in its allegations and that will become very clear
tomorrow. It supposedly has been uncovered that
Goldman Sachs is short 1,000 tonnes of gold; the story
goes on from there.

Tomorrow might be some day.


No49
YGM
North 49
If this news holds true I'd be VERY interested to hear
what your Banker nieghbour has to say about it!
Regards YGM.

GO GATA & GOLD! SHORT GOLDMAN SACHS!!!!!!
THX-1138
Possible Tsunami
If this GATA news about the report on Goldman Sachs is true then this is just the start of the Tsunami.

First the tide increases - Happened last week when Gold got near $290.

Then the water recedes - Low tide hit today.

Then the waters rush in - The wave could come tomorrow.


P.S. I wish this rumour had come out on Friday, and the price of Gold would stay low till then. Always seems the price of Gold goes down the week before I get paid.
SteveH
Futurists...smoocherists
Did it again today. Went to another speach by a futurist. This one spent a whole hour building on the theme that the economy would be good until 2008 because it was the baby boomer generation entering their peak spending years; this would make all well so plan on your businesses growing at 10% per year until then. This one didn't take any questions. I conclude that what ever a futurist says it won't have a negative spin and it won't necessarily be accurate rather entertaining, for what is a futurist without an audience?

And the folks there, all three hundred, had no clue that what this man spouted was what they wanted to hear and not necessarily the way it really would be. How can you discuss the future without discussing Y2K and the Euro and, of course, gold and oil?

So, how convenient that GS has an IPO followed immediately by Rubin's resignation as Secretary of the Treasury. It is getting interesting by the minute and the puzzle picture is starting to gel into a recognizable image, but I can't quite make it out yet.

"Martha, did you ever find out what happened to the furniture and the rest of the silverware?"

"No...Ma...I haven't."
NORTH OF 49
(No Subject)
YGMAs fate would have it, I just ran into him this afternoon after I received Murphy's E-mail. He was in a hurry to take in the Boston/Buffalo game so didn't have much time to talk to him. Interesting comment from him though--"from what I understand from your little forum, they'll never cover that"!
Who knows who lurks here!

Did you ever hear back from Monte Solberg of the Reform Party re: a party statement on GATA? I called his office to try and "grease the wheels", but just about that time the disaster in the Taber High School occured, which is right in his back yard. He was devoting all his time to envolvment in the events there at that time, and I was a little edgy about bothering him.

No49
Beowulf
Goldman Sacks short gold? No never. (Sarcasm intended)
If the rumor about the short position with Goldman Sacks is true then I will be vindicated at work. People at work are still trying to get me to join the race for internet stocks. They still don't understand that if the electricity don't work the internet company can't sell products. All they are investing into is some computer code on someones hard drive. I tell them everything going on in the Gold market but they don't listen. I've only converted two so far. When I heard of the IPO for Goldman Sacks it was a clue to me that they may be trying to shunt the burden of paying off the short position onto the public. I still think it is interesting that when Rubin announce his leaving gold started to climb fast, only to be stopped quickly. Very Interesting.
USAGOLD
Don't look now knights and ladies, but
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmgold is up a $1.10!

A silver Eagle to whosoever posts the first proof that Goldman Sachs is short 1000 tons....

Something to stay up for?
YGM
North 49
Yes I did BUT only the usual patronizing politically correct
crap as per all politicians training teaches them. Gold is
making some significant moves this evening. Hope it wasn't
(the GS 1000 oz rumor) planted by Sachs to draw buyers
for further shorters dinner!!! YGM.
SteveH
Dag gun it
USAGOLD beat me to it. She is a pretty bounce too.

$278.90 now.

Cavan Man
Internet Stocks
Beowulf-The obvious is the multiples (if any profits) are outrageous. The not obvious is that these same electronic retailers that have benefitted from the internet have unwittingly participated in their undoing. Historically manufacturers/wholesalers exhibited great loyalty to their retailers. The internet changed all that and really opened up the playing field. The internet also significantly degraded the loyalty paradigm. It's hard to compete with the factory.
USAGOLD
HEAR YE HEAR YE.... A POSTING CONTEST IS CALLED!
Come gather round this table my friends
And let us enter into a posting contest.
It has been more than a month
Since we so engaged ourselves
But the wheel has turned again
And we find ourselves at another crossroads.
Through these last few months
There is much that we have learned from each other.
Much that we have learned of gold
And the international economy.
Now we find ourselves under attack again
The golden ring snatched from our grasp.
Which brings me to why I ask you to gather here
through this weekend with Spring comforting the once cold land.
To answer this question from the heart (and enobled mind):
What has gold done for me?
These profits are not always of the material sort.
And the comforts not always market related.
The price stays rangebound.
Yet we return to this noble table night after night --
Week after week.
Why?
What is the hold this enchanting yellow metal has on us?

--------

The contest will go through the weekend, til the clock in the mountains strikes midnight on Sunday, May 23. The prize will be the beautiful and lucky French Angel weighing .1867 pure gold ounces. It is a fitting prize indeed since it is the angel that inspired the French constitution and bears the inscription "Liberte Equalite Fraternite. It is said that an early version of this lucky lady accompanied Napolean in all his battles until he lost it -- the day before Waterloo. Two silvers will be awarded the runners-up. The runner up posts can be off-subject this time, but if they are the post must encompass at least one of the Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse -- Y2K, Overvalued Stocks, the Asian Contagion, Euro Introduction and now Rising Oil.

------

An additional 1/10 ounce Austrian Philharmonic will be awarded the poster who can come closest to guessing the closing price of gold on the COMEX on Friday, May 21,1999 the June contract. The reasons why must accompany the post and be of at least 30 words.

I would ask that the gold guesses are in the subject box surrounded by stars*****.

The "What Has Gold Done for Me" posts must be identified in the subject box with number signs #####. Each poster get's one shot at the big prize so make it good.

Good luck, fellow knights and ladies. May the best post win.

Now.....Let the contest begin.
USAGOLD
Correction:
The contest will go through this Sunday, May 16th not May 23.

Also Five Horseman off subject posts must be marked with plus signs ++++++++.

Thanks & good fortune to all.....
The Stranger
ALL
Northy, thanks for bringing such cheery news to the castle this night. Let us pray it be true on the morrow.
Thanks to everbody else, too. God help me, I do love this forum so!
Beowulf
What does all the RED on this page mean?
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uCheck out the link above. What does this mean?
JA
North of 49's Goldman Sach news
Beowulf

My though processes have been somewhat similar to yours. LTCM gets in trouble, they are short gold and can't cover. A number of major banks and brokerage houses LTCM happens to be indebted to, come to the rescue. Various parties begin asking questions as to whether LTCM is short substantial amounts of gold. LTCM claims they are not short Gold, and at the time they make the statement (in proper Clinton style) it is accurate because they had already exchanged the short position to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs is chosen to take on the short position for two reasons, (1) they are privately held and the transaction would be less visible and (2) they are about to go public and thus the short position is assumed by the new stock holders. Ruben as a former executive of Goldman Sachs knows the short position is about to be exposed so he resigns in advance of it being made public.

Of course the above is all speculation on my part, but it makes for an interesting story.

What time is it in England? It seems there is about a 7 or 8 hour difference. Maybe it's just a matter of checking the London Financial Press website and see if their paper carrier had delivered yet?
YGM
JA
Your scenario is about the most plausible scenario of the
events that seem to be shaping this giant Gold manipulation
I've seen yet. I have to wonder how many others can also
relate to your train of thought. I definately hope FOA and
others read your post & comment. Well done & well put in
my opinion!! Please speak more often for I'll definately be
a listener.----Regards: YGM.
koan
simple and profound
The one thing you can always see clearly, is that gold can, and always will be a dependable store of wealth. Unlike diamonds, you can't create it. I don't think there is any question that the 1oz, for a good suit of clothes measurement (metaphorically speaking), will always hold true. For all our intelligence, we humans, all, have amazing blind spots. So, like kindness, gold is a compass which we can always depend upon to be true.
Gandalf the White
******GC9M settle 6/21 = $285.0******
WHY? Because my Crystal Ball sez so !! The restart of the Golden Bull run will start slowly until the magic June date when the cork will pop on the container of AU and the sun will shine on the golden RING of Gandalf's. There were five, now only ONE !
<;-)
Beowulf
Here's some fun reading
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/eveningupdate/745979.htmlWe'll see if this is true in the morning. Wait it is morning. Geez, I've got to go to bed.
SteveH
June gold now...
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?999$279.00

Times index for the 11th (so far): (note article on gold)

brings up the question, if bullish gold news ocurrs in the forest and there is no one there to report it, is there news?

May 11 1999 INDEX




BRITISH NEWS
Mother 'helped to kill pregnant daughter'
Hotels urged to prepare for continental pets
Office Romeo sues ex-lover for slander over rape 'fantasy'
Aitken creditors may be denied their �1.5m prize
Straw found Fayed 'lacking in probity'
Midwife accused over 'natural' birth death
Make 'em laugh and die happy
Isherwood papers go to library in Los Angeles
Hectic weeks before MP's death
Middle East policy limbo
No soft landings for the longhaul traveller
Inspectors want modular A-level results set apart
Failing school multiplies its maths chances
Child laureate nurtures undercover readers
Student hopes to net �11,000 for a �1 stake
Double fungus trouble
Critics take a swipe at Star Wars
May the sales force be with you . . .
Hail of bullets ends high life of drug baron
Children's surgeon saves dog
Palace at bottom of tourist list
Pools winner dies before payout
Corrections
News in Brief
POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
�40 a week for poor children to stay at school
Political Sketch - Matthew Parris
Peter Riddell on Politics
Media to fight Bill on evidence
Peers delay ban on smoking
Wallace facing rebellion over coalition fees deal
Labour threat to block Steel's Speaker hopes
The Candidates
BALKANS WAR
Embassy bombing damages political unity
Behind the walls of besieged embassy
Beijing backs mass outbreak of xenophobia
Envoys face post-imperial hostility
Man in the News - Anthony Galsworthy, the besieged British Ambassador
Sang-froid kept up morale during wave of Maoist attacks
Clinton apologises for 'tragic error' caused by CIA
German attempt to pacify Chinese
Troops to build new camps for 65,000 refugees
Ground rules set for oil blockade
British team verifies atrocity stories
Belgrade launches judicial attack
Milosevic sees his moment in allies' disarray
WORLD NEWS
British anthropologist lost in Pacific air crash
Six-hour swim to safety from air crash
Nature fights back to kill off clones
Casanova and De Sade notch up Nero palace
Israel's kosher rebel takes on orthodox kingmakers
Early elephants packed trunks for life underwater
World Summary
BUSINESS
HSBC pays $10bn for Safra banks
Trader's victims may sue for lost �20m
British Land earns its Corn
Treasury puts Post Office in fear of shake-up
G10 fails to halt gold's tumble
Pressure on Virgin to call off Shanghai flight
Chevron silent on Texaco bid
Stock Market - Michael Clark
Commentary
Tempus
The Times City Diary
Analysis - EMU is not the real threat to the future of the City
Syrian scion who built Republic into an empire
Bloomer steals Pru limelight
Retail sales flat over Easter
Elf to sell North Sea assets
Bid details to CSG investors
VDC's strategy under fire
Sun Life to make 2,000 job cuts in wake of GRE deal
Salsbury wields axe once again at M&S
Saga gives Norsk Hydro bid a lukewarm reception
API set to benefit from 2000
DCC focuses on better profits
CRH pays �277m for Finnish businesses
Tough competition forces Action into �92m merger
Miller raises offer for Cala
National Express in Australian purchase
AOL UK attacks Freeserve
Windsor increases earnings
Enic finance chief goes
Major Changes
Major Indices
Exchange Rates
Business Roundup - Volex takes top spot through $30m deal
Toyota studies bid
Head acquires Penn
Philips buys in US
Deltron shares suffer
Microsoft to buy Net wireless stake
BWI falls to Germans
NU starts PFI fund
'Carry On' scores sold
Alstom in �130m deal
WPP takes US stake
Xenova appointment
Frogmore's �37m deal
Moody's warning
Faeroes oil deal struck
Radio licence award
Your Own Business - Employers take care, there are bullies at work
Mobile phone users hit by switch hitch
In Brief
Megaphone

SteveH
No worries Mate!
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/746341.htmlRubin Retirement Sounds All-Clear for Global Economy
By Justin Lahart
Senior Writer
5/12/99 7:28 PM ET



Early last summer, at one of those smarmy Manhattan rooftop affairs where he does not belong, this reporter heard a currency trader spout on and on about how the yen was going to go to 180, about how the U.S.' and Japan's efforts to support the yen had failed and how there was nothing anybody, not even Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, could do to stop the coming fall.

This was, it turned out, profoundly wrong. (Our smug friend, it should be noted, was hardly alone in his views.) Just as Rubin's decision to join Japan in fighting the dollar's weakness in 1995 marked the end of the greenback's decline, the yen buying by the June intervention ended the yen's free fall.

That someone with Rubin's sense for what moves markets feels secure enough to announce his resignation now shows how far we have come since the world's economy fell into turmoil last year. With his departure, it's hard to dub the global recovery fragile anymore.

"One of the major spins we have dealt with over the last six to 12 months is how he would have retired in the summer of 1998 if it hadn't been for that major market turmoil," says Bill Sullivan, chief money-market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "Basically, he felt that it needed his stewardship to bring the markets back. Rubin's resignation implies that he now thinks that stewardship is no longer needed."


Rubin's Reign

Source: Baseline, TSC Staff

For a while now there have been signs aplenty that the world economy was on the mend -- emerging markets coming back, commodities and commodity currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars on the rebound -- but until recently officials have taken a rather cautious stance. It was only at last month's Washington meetings of the G7 finance ministers and of the World Bank that we began to hear hopeful murmurs of how the world was really on the mend.

And even then, some have struck cautious notes. Of the recovery in the Brazilian markets, New York Fed President William McDonough wondered in a speech last month whether "anything goes that well that quickly. The answer," he said, "is usually not."


Rubbernecking at Rubin


TSC'S Coverage
Treasury Transition Won't Impact Tax Policy
Summers: A Bull in the Global China Shop
James Padinha: Good Riddance
Marc Chandler: Like Bob. I Want to Be Like Bob.
James Cramer: Love That Bob
Readers: React to Rubin's Resignation
In truth, while their markets have surged, the economies of the countries hardest hit in the crisis are generally showing only nascent signs of recovery.

"What has changed more than the reality is the perception," says Josh Feinman, global markets economist at Bankers Trust. "The fundamentals haven't changed that much." But he points out that this is a case where perceptions count. "Keep in mind where we were last fall. It wasn't the economic fundamentals. It was just a complete panic in the market. If you remember, the talk was about Armageddon, global deflation."

Such prophecies can become self-fulfilling. Lenders, fearing the worst, hold fast to their money. Capital markets seize up. This fall, the world was on the verge of a global-economic nervous breakdown. Even after order was restored, there was a sense that a new round of crisis could beset the world, that the patient could crack again. Hardly a time to go home to New York.

But now the danger of relapse seems remote. The rolling series of crises that began with devaluation of the Thai baht nearly two years ago has apparently come to an end. "It's calm," says Feinman, "and that gave Rubin the feeling he could step aside now."

It would be a mistake, of course, to say that all the work has been done. With the lightning-fast movement of capital that has come with globalization, the dangers of market contagion are very real. There has been a lot of talk about the need for a new, global financial architecture, but the work has barely begun and with the recovery there's a risk complacency could set in.

"Poor Bob Rubin," remarks Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "If he had to wait for all the problems of the world to be resolved, he would have to wait until the Second Coming before he could go home."

Aragorn III
Take caution if you go looking for conspiracies...you may find one!
How time passes! I stray, and on occasion the birds eat my trail of bread crumbs...yet I press on. Do they conspire against me, or are they only doing as birds do? Ah, that is the question!

One must maintain the perspective that there are many facets to life, and each facet may be viewed by many angles. Is it not presumptuous (and unlikely) to ever place oneself on the side of righteousness in all facets, ever playing among the weak victims to a smaller number of powerful and well-organized conspiring "sinister forces" seeking your disadvantage? If they could work within the existing framework to rise to such a perceived position of power and ability, what need have they to conspire YOUR future disadvantage? Would not the status quo suit them fine?

More likely, each angle of view for each facet of life sees the competing angles, and perhaps considers some to be actual threats where co-existance is not possible. Insecurities lead to painting the normal presence and activity of those opposing angles as "Conspiracy". Perhaps their own insecurity paints you as conspirator, also! I see that this thought is adequately developed in the post "SteveH (5/11/99; 21:08:34MDT - Msg ID:5965)--Fergus (Gold, "The Manipulators", and the War on Gold)" so I will let it stand there. But should I suggest that this innocent and coincidental presentation and agreement of ideas could be cited as proof by "the other side" that SteveH, Fergus and I must surely be part of a conspiracy? How much sleep shall they lose as we conduct our "business as usual"? Heh heh heh... You can be sure where this facet of money is concerned, it is our "business as usual" with gold, not our "conspiracy", that will "win" against any view that cannot co-exist. The natural leverage of gold ensures that of all angles of all facets, this is one time that the righteous AND winning position may be easily divined.

As I walked this path earlier, with the help of Goldfly, Gandalf, and JA, the principles of the American revolution, the Founding Fathers, the framers of the Constitution--whatever one might choose to call this peer group-- were established as heroes, worthy of respect on the merit of their bold actions and foresight. And yet, though I do not doubt the issue, I left the question hang in the air whether this popular opinion of respect might possibly be due to propaganda. Anyone prone to conspiracy thought must surely hold this view, as I shall attempt to explain.

In our time period under focus, 1764 - 1789, might we easily call the UK the typical "powers that be"--a world force of imperialism in which the sun never sets upon their empire? Surely it would take more than a group of rag tag revolutionary heroes to overthrow, or more properly, free themselves from such overlordship. Surely it would take a conspiracy of "powerful and well organized sinister forces"! And might we also conclude that any force so powerful as that might comparably find it quite an easy task to manipulate the court of public opinion, ensuring that the decendents would maintain the view that their angle on this facet was the righteous one? Again, I hold no doubt that their "angle" was (and still is) the righteous one. And yet, look what these consensus All-American heroes did immediately after securing the freedom of these thirteen colonies...they embarked on the establishment of a "New World Order" and a Constitution that united the States under one national government! Surely you conspiracy advocates see this as a heinous act, and can accept that propaganda and manipulation in the court of public opinion must be the sole reason these Founding Fathers are yet held in high esteem! In search of the truth of the matter, let us look to the words of your conspiracy ancestors. I shall quote the words of an insecure Amos Singletary, an elderly Massachusetts farmer who spoke out at the ratifying convention against those who were trying to persuade him that the new government would not endanger his liberties:

"These lawyers, and men of learning, and moneyed men, that talk so finely, and gloss over matters so smoothly, to make us poor illiterate people swallow down the pill, expect to get into Congress themselves; they expect to be the managers of this Constitution, and get all the power and all the money into their own hands, and then they will swallow up all us little folk."

Does that not sound too familiar to modern conspiracy chatter?

We might even disclose that during the Pennsylvania ratifying convention the Federalists had bought up the newspapers so that they might print only the speeches of their own party! Clear evidence of propaganda! And yet, at the end of the day, we have a shining premise for a nation--the united States of America; and heroic figures such as Thomas Jefferson, Samuel Adams, John Jay, James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, Paul Revere, Patrick Henry.

What do you imagine old Amos Singletary from Massachusetts might say about that same conspiracy if he could join our Round Table with the hindsight of 200 years of history, considering both U.S. and world affairs? With little doubt we may suppose he is glad his insecurity did not carry the convention. But if, in fact, his fears have been realized today, even he must admit that they came to pass due to subsequent events and lack of diligence, NOT due to a conspiratorial power-grab by the Framers and early administrations. Fighting for freedom and establishing a government to secure the rights of life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for the colonies was purely "business as usual", so to speak. It was the necessary task at hand. Naturally, the British resisted these break-away efforts as their particular "task at hand".

So it is with the many facets in life. Many issues, and much business conducted for personal benefit by many people. To cloud your judgement with thoughts of intricate conspiracies dilutes your ability to evaluate the positions and effectively compete against the any "business interest" that is mutually exclusive with yours.

One lesson to be learned is this. Like Amos Singletary, take an active part and to speak out; however, thoughts should be based on facts and legitimate concerns, not ill-conceived fears. It should be done from the business-as-usual perspective of self-confidence and action, not from the conspiracy theory perspective of insecurity and elaborate blaming schemes. Any look through history reveals that men of clear thought and action are rewarded; and gold shall ever go to the one that works for it.

You have worked hard. Your thoughts are clear. Your reward awaits...

got gold?
Peter Asher
Sraight talk from the master
Thank you Aragorn. (I was beginning to think there was a conspiracy of conspircy theorists, to take over the Forum). Seriously though, your words this morning are filled with the profundity of simple truth. Well spoken!!
Cavan Man
On conspiracies.....
Indeed they are more aptly described as preservation of self interest. And let's not forget about the greed factor; simply one of the seven deadlies. Thanks for the perspective. Having recently tuned in to this channel I have had the impression that many were a little insecure.
canamami
Has the GS Article Appeared Yet?
Has anyone seen the article concerning Goldman Sachs' alleged 1000 tonne short position? Does anyone know if it has appeared yet? The POG could use the boost such a disclosure would provide.
Clint H
Hall of fame
Aragorn III (5/13/99; 5:12:40MDT - Msg ID:6028)
Take caution if you go looking for conspiracies...you may find one!

Well said, Aragorn. I nominate this post to the hall of fame. A timely message in any situation.
Christine
@AragonIII
I am sorry for taking up so much focus here with conspiracy theories. I hope you are right. With the recent rise in interest rates and inflation, we should be able to find out soon enough. If gold breaks through its range peacefully and pleasantly, now that the macroeconomic picture is improving, then I for one will happily get back to the rest of my life and won't continue in the conspiracy mode. These theories rest upon gold being manipulated to the extreme by short derivatives. If there is no violent, economically disruptive, explosion of gold to the upside, then there is no conspiracy for me. But first I must see gold break out of its trading range to see how gold responds.
turbohawg
interesting interview ...
http://www.stockhouse.com/interviews/may99/051299.asp... with market timer Don Wolanchuk in which he discusses his outlook on stocks, gold, and oil.
Golden Truth
Kosovo Mine The real reason for the Killing and Bombing.
www.sightings.com/politics2/motive.htmIMPORTANT NOTE:U.S intelligence has blocked access to www.yugolsavia.com.This website contains information about the COVETED mines in Kosovo.
Golden Truth
Kosovo Mine
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Report: PPI UP .5%
MARKET REPORT (5/13/99): Gold opened higher by a dollar in New York with the
Producer Price Index coming in at an inflationary .5% monthly gain -- the strongest gain
since October, 1990. Incredibly, the mainstream press is running headlines of a "tame"
PPI. One "analyst" referring to the annualized 6% wholesale inflation rate commented that
"Clearly you see there is no inflation." Wait a minute. Let me rub my eyes and see if that
elephant's still pink. Carrying the equities market absurdity to new levels, the stock market
is up 70 points on the inflation news and the 30 year bond a full point. We'll see what
happens when cooler heads enter the scene, particularly Alan Greenspan, as he no doubt
will see this elephant differently, not to mention foreign bond holders. The markets still
need to digest as well the news of the Rubin resignation and the latest purge in Moscow and
the effects it will have on the Russian debt problem.

In the London market, Standard Bank reports that "physical gold demand is robust and
should underpin the market." In their forex section, they add an interesting comment
supporting our contention that UK entrance into EU is not the real reason for the Bank of
England gold sales. "UK is still, whatever politicians say, a long way off entering EU via
referendum," says their report at the close of European trading. We await more news to
determine the real motivation for BOE sales.

FWN reports Chinese gold demand way up in the first quarter of 1999. The Chinese gold
sectors reports a 48% jump in profits -- and a 16% rise in the gold weight transacted
buttressing claims by gold analysts that traditionally strong Asian demand is back on stream
and growing. The historically strong demand in Asia for physical metal had been subdued
somewhat by the Asian currency crisis that dominated those economies over the past 18
months. Demand now appears to be recovering.

That's it for today. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of
News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold
ownership.
USAGOLD
HEAR YE HEAR YE....ALL KNIGHTS AND LADIES....A POSTING CONTEST
Come gather round this table my friends
And let us enter into a posting contest.
It has been more than a month
Since we so engaged ourselves
But the wheel has turned again
And we find ourselves at another crossroads.
Through these last few months
There is much that we have learned from each other.
Much that we have learned of gold
And the international economy.
Now we find ourselves under attack again
The golden ring snatched from our grasp.
Which brings me to why I ask you to gather here
through this weekend with Spring comforting the once cold land.
To answer this question from the heart (and enobled mind):
What has gold done for me?
These profits are not always of the material sort.
And the comforts not always market related.
The price stays rangebound.
Yet we return to this noble table night after night --
Week after week.
Why?
What is the hold this enchanting yellow metal has on us?

--------

The contest will go through the weekend, til the clock in the mountains strikes midnight on Sunday, May 16. The prize
will be the beautiful and lucky French Angel weighing .1867 pure gold ounces. It is a fitting prize indeed since it is the
angel that inspired the French constitution and bears the inscription "Liberte Equalite Fraternite. It is said that an early
version of this lucky lady accompanied Napolean in all his battles until he lost it -- the day before Waterloo. Two silvers
will be awarded the runners-up. The runner up posts can be off-subject this time, but if they are the post must
encompass at least one of the Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse -- Y2K, Overvalued Stocks, the Asian Contagion, Euro
Introduction and now Rising Oil.

------

An additional 1/10 ounce Austrian Philharmonic will be awarded the poster who can come closest to guessing the
closing price of gold on the COMEX on Friday, May 21,1999 the June contract. The reasons why must accompany the
post and be of at least 30 words.

I would ask that the gold guesses are in the subject box surrounded by stars*****.

The "What Has Gold Done for Me" posts must be identified in the subject box with number signs #####. Each poster
get's one shot at the big prize so make it good.

Good luck, fellow knights and ladies. May the best post win.
TownCrier
Don Wolanchuk Is Back for MORE about Oil, Gold, the Dow, ... and Some of His Favorite Picks
http://www.stockhouse.com/interviews/may99/051299.aspSays gold going to the moon. I sure hope he only means the price, because I'm rather fond of my metal.
TownCrier
turbo is too fast for me!
Thanks for being on top of things, Sir turbohawg!
TownCrier
FOCUS-Energy prices drive up U.S. producer prices
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990513/wa.htmlThe Producer Price Index, and analysts words to chew on.
TownCrier
Dubai traders say cheap gold loses investment shine
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990513/hc.htmlInteresting comments by a trader. Not all accurate (100,000 tonnes!), but interesting...
YGM
JA post last nite @ 22:17 # 6021
You guys should read your own late nite posters when you
arrive in the morning. It has a ring of truth that is easy to
see being part of the current scenario Regards YGM
Gotta go for now YGM.
SteveH
Rumor
I heard this weekend now. Pass word.

PH in LA
Conspiracies Behind Every Facet
It would be an honor to go on record as seconding the motion by SteveH to include Aragorn's Conspiracy Post in the Hall of Fame.

Profound understanding and the facil communication of it mark his enlightened words. This post would be worth a read anytime...and even more so now, in light of the current situation.

Many thanks, Aragorn!
Golden Truth
G.S short 1000 tons!
Just read over at kitco (Sams)May 1999 12:25 message. @Rhody-cnbc is working on a Story on Goldman Sachs right now.Apparently Tony Blairs econnomic advisor is a partner with Gold Sachs.Can you Believe?
T. Remital
(No Subject)
Food for thought!!!!Could GOLD be the potential trigger to upset the global securities markets ??Could GOLD
be the trigger that sends the U.S. dollar into a tail spin ??Cause the Bond mkt. to colapse???
Bring about a major deppression ??? In order to keep the paper game going, the powers to be
can not afford to have GOLD in the limelight..But !!!! because there has been so much
shorting, leasing and selling in the banking system...it has become apparent that there is not
enough physical gold to meet the commitments in existance. Even the large north american
gold producer, Barrick Gold, is in the paper game and may go broke trying to make
deliveries against their forward sales. Is it also possible that the U.K. gold sale is really
a cover up to protect some British hedge fund's short position, when in effect no gold
will change hands. If this is all true--the steaming pot is about to blow--SOON.
The Stranger
Today's London "Times" Op-Ed Criticizing the BOE Decision
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?999Not what Murphy got us all excited about but informative just the same...
Gandalf the White
Aragorn's Post on Conspiracies
I also second the nomination for the Hall of Record the posting. Only the great vision of Aragorn III could see the real picture here in the eastcoast skyscrappers, the farmlands of the central plains and the Ents of the west, from the other side of the POND, so clearly. THANKS!
<;-)
The Stranger
Re: My Prior Post
Click on "BUSINESS"
Click on "Analysis-Graham Searjeant"
The Invisible Hand
Sunday Times does not deny

I read on another site that the Sunday Times of London was going to run the story on ... Sunday.

I sent an e-mail to the Economics Editor of the paper asking him whether he was going to run the story that Goldman Sachs was short of 100 tonnes of gold.

He replied by asking me to tell him what I know
T. Remital
Further on recent post---
If the story on G.S. short 100 tonss of gold is true--
you now can see why RUBIN had to leave..he would be on a
hot seat...
TownCrier
Brash new US Treasury Secretary
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_342000/342776.stmSummers is described as a reformed Keynesian, and a person who played a central role in the Russian crisis. (Big success story THAT was.)

This does NOT look good, people. Not good for the average "Joe," that is. Gold will do ju-u-u-u-u-u-st fine!
Peter Asher
Is this #7
http://news.excite.com/news/r/990513/14/news-oil-explosionJust when we got Christine to lighten up a bit. These are becoming a definate co---insidence!
TownCrier
Rouble trouble rumbles on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_342000/342952.stmRouble is now trading at 26 per each US Dollar (four cents for each Rouble!)
Anyone know what it was 6 months ago? A year ago? Two?
TownCrier
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Gains Hedge Fund Manager as New Member
http://news2.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the%5Feconomy/newsid%5F329000/329127.stmA former Director of Equity Strategy at Goldman Sachs who is strongly Keynesian, not a monetarist.
TownCrier
Close connection between BOE and Goldman Sachs
http://news2.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the%5Fcompany%5Ffile/newsid%5F334000/334489.stmThis was posted before, but the BoE announcement and the latest GS rumor makes it germane once again.

Goldman Sachs' partner Gavyn Davies, the chief UK economist and close friend of Chancellor Gordon Brown, is reported to be in line to receive shares worth �80m ($128m).

koan
Whats up with silver?
The headline news today, it seems to me, should be: WHATS UP WITH SILVER? This looks like a major breakout and possible decoupling with gold. As a 20 year silver watcher this sure looks real to me although I don't have a clue as to where this move came from except it was very curious how well silver withstood the meltdown in gold. Any theories? Just a small reaction in the silver stocks, so far.
YGM
Conspiracies are never proven if not examined--
You can't just disregard thought because it falls in the
realm of that (now ugly) word "Conspiracy". Sure one
cannot become obsessed w/ one train of thought, but at
the same time you can't automatically discount a possibility
of something being bigger than most can grasp because
it may appear on surface to be unbelievable. Truth as we
all should know is often stranger than fiction.

*** I cannot believe that JA's post last nite didn't stimulate
SOME input. It was a very, very simple yet highly viable
scenario of what transpired to bailout LCTM and why
Goldman Sachs is so neg on Gold!!! I can only conclude
that folks have tired or given up on new thoughts.

***JA your post was and is as feasible as any thing 'Ive read
here or at any other forum. IMHO--YGM
TownCrier
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals
New York-May 12-FWN--Silver futures surged sharply in a
technical breakout here today, while gold consolidated in an
uneventful day. June gold added just 30
cents to $278.10 and spent the day session in a $1.60
range.
"In the gold market today, we saw some extremely quiet
trade," said Dave Meger, metals analyst with Alaron Trading.
Some of this may have been due to the Ascension Day holiday
in much of Europe, although London markets were open, he pointed out.
Meger noted that June gold has already been in
"congestive" trade between the $277 and $280 level the last
few days, since the U.K. news rocked the market.
"We've been extremely consolidative and very range-
bound," said Meger. "And the holiday didn't help the
situation. So volume was very, very light today."
Support in the June futures was listed at $277 to
Monday's $276.50 low, then around $274.50. Resistance is
seen initially at $280, then $281.60.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
NORTH OF 49
Rouble rate
The farthest back I have experience with the rouble was first week in Jan this year @23 per buck at the banks. That was on Sakhaline Island, assume it would be the same on the "mainland", as the locals refer to it.

No49
NORTH OF 49
Sorry--meant to address last post to Town Crier.
No49
SteveH
Koan
Your question on silver. My guess is silver is where some of the gold shorts are hedging their long side to offset their gold shorts without driving up the price of gold. Makes perfect sense to me. Ultimately silver would draw attention to the other precious metals but it would take longer and buy more time, as though they believe that by buying time they can unwind. Just my $.02.
Aristotle
Conspiracies and YGM
Hi Yukon-- I have become somewhat familiar with Aragorn's style and purpose of writing. I think it is safe to say that he is not stepping in to be the Thought Police wherein we must refrain from All Things Conspiracy. My impression is that we are being cautioned not to lose our sense of self-determination and self-governance. We shouldn't give up our hard-won knowledge, and freedoms of thought & action. We shouldn't forsake our imminent Moment of Truth because we choose to yield during the struggle with our imaginary adversary who is every bit as powerful and complex and insurmountable as our imaginations will allow. The end result is that the simple men, the Keynesian economists, would then call the shots unhindered by our opposing voice for honest money.

Why is it that they seem to effectively laugh us off as an amusement, while we bestow upon them the powers of demi-gods? And despite all that, Gold is still winning the struggle! Does that mean our conspiracy is stronger than theirs? Aragorn doesn't seem to think so. He likens us all to various, simple men of history (our history!), and we are fortunate to find ourselves wearing the shoes of Washington, Revere, Jefferson, and Adams, while everyone else 'on this facet' is wearing red coats. Just hold until you see the whites of their eyes...

Gold (and confidence). Get you some. ---Aristotle
YGM
Aristotle
Hear, Hear- I have gained from Aragorn's wisdom and didn't
intend for my post to appear directed at his views. His earlier post did make me wonder if our favourite Christine
was being put in a catagory. I do enjoy her quick grasp of
things way over my head ie: most of the oil and Euro stuff,
but I also enjoy her ability to wonder and question out loud
w/out worrying if she's sounding knowledgable. Mainly I
wanted to stimulate other thoughts on JA's post last nite.
It still after many rereads and some thought seems so
entirely feasible within all the other theories and scenarios
constantly presented at the three main forums. I find all 3
sites, Kit & GE as here have a vast diversity of knowledge
and thoughts that inspire further consideration. Kind of a
human jig-saw puzzle of ideas, opinions and thoughts if you
will. Besides I'm considered the guy who clears the room
when offended not usually the defender. Thanks for your
views---Now what about JA's post??? Anyone have an
opinion?--- Where is FOA and Another?--- Chris?---YGM

Y-you
G-got
M-me <:)
TownCrier
Tea leaves
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990513/bc3.htmlMost IMM currencies end up as correction resumes

North of 49: That's right, you were there! Thanks for the help. I was inspired to investigate further.

6 months ago--- 17 Roubles per each dollar (6 cents each)
one year ago--- 6 Roubles per each dollar (17 cents each)
two years ago---6000 Roubles per each dollar (this was prior to the Russian Government creating the New Rouble by stripping off three zeros from each bill and from all prices. So essentially, this can be thought of as holding steady at 6 Roubles per dollar for the whole year prior to the big slide these past twelve months. Coulda woulda shoulda got some gold!
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review [Includes silver for Sir koan's curiosity]
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 13--COMEX Jly silver futures settled up 18.7c at $5.57 after
hitting a 2 1/2-month high of $5.58 per ounce. Silver jumped on fund buying as
players pushed it over $5.48 resistance, triggering buy-stops, said traders.
"There was steady fund buying which took out stops up to $5.52," said one
trader, noting that the $5.48 level had been a tough sticking point. They said
that an inability to hurdle $5.48 had already hampered attempts to rally
Tuesday. Today another push higher then came from speculators as the 1425 ET
close approached, said traders.

James Steel, analyst at Refco, noted that the market "has remained very
friendly to the gold/silver ratio in favor of silver."
One trader noted that Jly silver's ability to settle in positive territory
Friday, after initially accompanying gold to lower prices, was "an extremely
bullish signal."
However, Steel said he was not sure how long the rally would last, given
that gold remains weak and still has the potential to exert downwards pressure
on silver, following last Friday's big selloff on news the UK Treasury said it
was going to sell half of its gold reserves. He noted that current lease rates
"don't imply the market is that tight."
Another trader noted that as an industrial metal, silver was possibly
receiving some support from the recent stronger base metals prices, particularly
from COMEX and LME copper and LME aluminum, zinc and lead.

Jun gold settled up a marginal 30c at $278.10 per ounce after an inside
day's trading which was simply viewed as a consolidation at the current range
after the Friday and Monday big price plunge.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
THX-1138
UK Gold Sales and Goldman Sachs
Found this posted on Kitco.

@UK gold sales
(bryant)
May 13, 16:08
This part of a broadcast e-mail that I just received from Bill Murphy:

"Last night I spoke of a coming bomb shell. Nothing surfaced today, but I can fill you in on what is being passed around the London gold community:

Gavyn Davies is a Goldman Sachs partner and is also Tony Blair's economist. Davies is Goldman Sach's international economist and operates out of the U.K. Davies just also happens to be the chief financial advisor to Gordon Brown, who is Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The well circulated rumor is that Goldman Sachs is short 1,000 tonnes of gold and that Davies was the influence behind the English decision to sell gold. It would appear there is a big conflict of interest here, to say the least.

In other words, this was a political decision to sell England's gold ( maybe to protect Goldman Sach's exposure ).

Haruko Fakuda, CEO of the World Gold Council, said yesterday that the British decision to sell gold was a political one and this story helps to confirm what she was told.

In a Reuters story today, the former head of treasury, Terry Smeeton, said the decision by Britain to sell more than half of its reserves is ill-judged. "It's not a policy I would have advocated when I was at the bank. I am sad this action has been taken," he said.

"It's clearly a treasury decision in which the bank has HAD to acquiesce."

Although there was no big news today, I did receive a call from a London paper and there will be a gold story of interest to our camp coming out very soon.

It is only a matter of time before the scandalous manipulation of the gold market is exposed to all."


THX-1138
Idea about collectable Gold coins
I was at work the other day and was thinking about how U.S. mining companies could promote Gold. They could issue a series of collectable coins based on the U.S. history of old west frontier life.

One coins would have a trapper riding a horse and trailing a pack horse on one side and on the other there could be a beaver next to a pond.

Another coin could be a family in a wagon crossing the prairie with "California or bust" written on the side, and the reverse could have a person gold panning or running a sluce box.

The next could be the scene of miners crossing that mountain in Alaska in to the Klondike Territory, and the reverse have a moose/bear/caribou/or a guy with a gold pan.

Then another could have something to do with the Black Hills Gold rush. (Haven't thought that one through yet)


The silver industry could do the same thing with the history surrounding Nevada and Silver City and the Comstock Lode.

Anyway, just some thoughts. I was bored at work and let my mind wander.
THX-1138
correction to my post on msg 6068
It was posted at the Gold Forum on the Gold-Eagle site.

The Stranger
THX-1138, I Second That Emotion
No kidding, I have been wondering today why the U.S. Mint is not issuing a one ounce Turn-of-the-Millennium commemorative gold coin. Would anybody NOT buy one? What a collector's piece that would be.
Christine
@YGM--re: JA's theory on Goldman Sach's
(Hi. I've not been in until now.) I totally agree with you and JA. JA's view is simple and logical explanation. After a brief debate with Mozel about a related issue with Barrick Gold, Mozel convinced me of my naivety yet. Barrick Gold is likely a similar situation to Goldman Sachs. Because of the forward sales and many layers of derivatives by Barricks, Barrick's will ultimately be bankrupted by all the uncoverable shorts/derivatives. Who will be left holding the bag? The stockholders of Barrick's. YGM, IMHO you and JA are totally correct.
Christine
From my fortune cookie last night
"Wisdom is only found in truth"
koan
Thank You
Thank you Town Crier. Tomorrow and Monday should tell the tale; and will gold and silver diverge if silver continues up, or will silver be able to pull gold. If silver goes on up it just might scare the gold shorts into a panic. What great poetry that would be. The gold shorts get nailed from behind and never saw it coming. Maybe England can talk India into selling their silver.
Christine
@Peter Asher--Thanks for the URL on yet another refinery fire
This is at least #6 refinery fire in last 6 months. This is second in Texas in about a week. Last was in Houston. This one in Corpus Christi. None of the news articles ever say what is starting these explosions in refineries.
YGM
THX-1138
I'd buy a few coins as you decribed and so probably would
many. The Mountain between AK & Yukon (scene of the
Klondike Goldrush) is called the Chilkoot Pass. You might
also be aware that each person entering the Yukon then
had to pack (or pay packers) 2000 lbs of supplies in the
form of food before the then, North West Mounted Police
would allow entry to the Goldfields of Dawson (Yukon)
This was an awsome feat, especially by those who went in
the winter. Usually at least twenty trips up over a 7000'
summit.

"Strange things done, neath the midnite sun by the
men that moil for Gold" (Robert Service).
beesting
@THX-1138-msg.6069 promoting more sales of GOLD.
http://www.ajpm.com/pages/minting.htmlI too have given much thought in getting the general public more involved in buying Gold and creating more demand.I have a number of coin books which list Commemorative Gold coins issued from all over the world,for special events and occasions.The above URL will mint medallions to your specifications,if you want to start this venture on your own.
My limited knowledge of commemorative coins tells me; The coins can be a hot item when issued with plenty of marketing hype. The coins then languish(after a few years) in a collectors personal stash of goodies till they end up in estate sales,and go to the highest bidder.It is a great idea for right now.

What I have thought of along these lines(getting John Q. Public buying more Gold) is; Printing, or in this case engraving special documents on Gold sheeting. I asked an engraver how much Gold would be used in the standard 8X11 1/2 picture frame size? He said less than an ounce depending on how thick a sheet of Gold you would like.
Special documents could include but not limited to:
Diplomas!
Licences to practice(law, medicine,etc.)
Special achievement awards!
Wills!
You add to the list!
Anything a person or family wants to keep as an heirloom,which has been kept on paper in the past.

Speaking of heirlooms,I heard thru one of Gandalfs Hobbit friends that the Bank of England asked the Queen of England to auction one of her Golden Crowns(she has more than one)to raise money to help the underprivileged.The last I heard,the banker is to be beheaded sometime Sunday 5/15/99.........beesting
koan
silver move
I have been thinking about this move in silver. It makes no sense at all on the surface. Comex stocks remain in the 75 to 80 mil range, technical damage to gold is super severe, etc, etc then out of the blue wham. If Friday and Monday confirm, today and especially if we break $6.00, then someone is buying. A couple of months ago I told my wife that if the Saudies were to cut production in half, even if no one else did, prices would double. I was wondering why they hadn't figured that out - well they did. The same is true of silver: If one or more of the rich cats bought just 10 million oz and took delivery silver should move up pretty good. Seems simple. If I were Warren - what great entertainment!
beesting
GOLD
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/platino78caenglish/The previous URL was for Silver,this ones for GOLD medallions.........beesting
Golden Vanity
@ jinx44 Hammer time on the anvil Msg (ID:5875)
"My point is about the attitude of the USG towards privacy of thought, deed and possessions. We do not "own" anything in this country. The State allows us to retain certain thoughts and items subject to taxation, permitting and compliance." "Do not misunderstand me - I believe that gold is the only alternative we small people have in this world". "When the price of gold rises, the USG will either confiscate it by force or by taxation at the time of sale."

Your point on the ownership of property in the US. Is well taken Sir.
If Gold be property, than surly it to will be under the gun for confiscation.
What better way to stifle the remaining life out of the individual who dares
to take a stand for personal freedom.
Cash has already fallen under supervision and I know not any form of private
wealth of portable nature (who's value is not subjected to cabal control) that
an individual might find refuge in.
I Myself, a (rent to?)owner of land and property in this once great land have seen the
light. No longer do I live in the lie of the American Dream of ownership of home
and land. The system by evil design, will suck the life blood from the sleeping children.
I now live in the full knowledge of the problem at hand.
My father before me foresaw this change in the nature of a government eating it's own,
and thank God, had the wisdom to warn me and lay no guilt upon me, nor burden
me with the monumental task of trying to live the lie, in order to maintain our land
under an increasingly unjust and burdensome government.
I might answer in saying that, freedom is found not only in the material but
in the ability to display (wise-dom)inion over all things that one is blessed with.
In facing the enemy that has been created, a frontal assault is not always the
best maneuver. The liberated mind is a force that one day has to be reckoned with.
I would place gold above land as a means of re-seeding the dream in days to come.

This being my first post, I would like to thank you all for the higher thought
that gathers here.
Aristotle
Refinery fires, LTCM, GS, and Treasury Sec. Rubin
Is there anyone familiar enough with this sector to cite a statistic such as the number of similar fires to be expected in a typical year? Maybe what we've seen is not an anomaly, but rather within normal parameters. Our heightened sensitivity merely makes it seem like an unusual number because no fire goes unnoticed as it might have in past years. If this number IS an anomaly, maybe it is an example of Y2K tests going horribly wrong. Or maybe it is just that rare alignment of the stars...our year for freak accidents as pure random chance. Like getting three tornadoes in one year, or back-to-back 100-year floods.

Occam's razor, you know.

There is an easier, safer way to bottleneck supplies if there is some method and human madness behind these fires. This would tend to be the least likely, though not impossible or utterly improbable answer to this riddle.

JA, you certainly did have some good thoughts on the possible consolidation of Hedge Fund Gold shorts within the Goldman Sachs shop for the reasons you mentioned. It would also not be inconceivable that cooperation among funds has possibly resulted in the transfer of short positions from more than only LTCM to GS if this remains one of the few vehicles with wheels.

I'm not sure how to interpret this comment though, "Rubin, as a former executive of Goldman Sachs, knows the short position is about to be exposed so he resigns in advance of it being made public."

Granted, 1,000 tonnes short is certainly an odd position to be in, but it is entirely legal. On top of that, Rubin no longer works there. Why must he feel compelled to resign his Treasury job on that account? Also, as it appears hopeless for the various funds to deliver metal to cover their short position, wouldn't the goal be to settle the contracts on paper in any conceivable fashion? If they can't succeed in obtaining offsetting contracts without a price explosion, couldn't they find other ways to hedge their financial exposure to the inevitable Gold losses? These are HEDGE funds, after all. For example, they could short the dollar to generate profits on the way down with which to continue buying their way out from under their remaining short Gold positions. Sec. Rubin has been kicking the idea of resignation around for a while now. I wouldn't be surprised that he wants out of the public eye when things turn ugly, but I'd be surprised to see him time the event so close to crap actually hitting the fan. But then, maybe he thought time was on his side, and now he knows it is very, very short. Well, time reveals all. ---Aristotle
Aristotle
Golden Vanity...welcome to the Round Table. Any chair you like is yours for the duration.
You should seriously consider that post, or an expansion thereof, as an entry in this weekend's contest. A fine post!

YGM, Good Sir! Ahhhhhhhhh...Robert Service!

There's a land where the mountains are nameless,
And the rivers all run God knows where;
There are lives that are erring and aimless,
And deaths that just hang by a hair;
There are hardships that nobody reckons;
There are valleys unpeopled and still;
There's a land -- oh, it beckons and beckons,
And I want to go back -- and I will.

They're making my money diminish;
I'm sick of the taste of champagne.
Thank God! when I'm skinned to a finish
I'll pike to the Yukon again.
I'll fight -- and you bet it's no sham-fight;
It's hell! -- but I've been there before;
And it's better than this by a damsite --
So me for the Yukon once more.

There's gold, and it's haunting and haunting;
It's luring me on as of old;
Yet it isn't the gold that I'm wanting
So much as just finding the gold.
It's the great, big, broad land 'way up yonder,
It's the forests where silence has lease;
It's the beauty that thrills me with wonder,
It's the stillness that fills me with peace.


Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
koan
Christine - wisdom
wisdom is only found in truth - and kindness.
The Stranger
Christine
Your dire assessment of the possible risks facing Barrick shareholders, in the event of a gold short squeeze, may have been well intended, but I am afraid it is nonsense. Barrick has a reserve base of 51.5 million ounces. Their forward sales program currently amounts to only 11.5 million ounces (approximately three years production) sold for an average of $385/oz. By the end of the current year, average production costs are expected to fall to $125/oz., easily the lowest in the industry. Unless you expect every bullion owner in the world to demand and get physical delivery (a preposterous notion, if I may say so), Barrick will do very nicely, even in a rapidly rising market.

So far, Barrick's forward sales program has been fortuitous indeed. Largely because of it, Barrick stockholders have outperformed every other gold-based investment I know of in recent years.

I agree that Barrick will soon wish this program had been discontinued, BUT it is absurd to say that they may soon be threatened with bankruptcy, under ANY scenario.
Christine
@Aristotle
Your comments about refinery fires are an important question. I have asked myself that question also, but do not know the answer--what is the normal for refinery fires.

But here are the facts or more expert conclusions relative to the issue, besides the actual refinery explosions:
1. Per Simmons article, oil prices were artificially low for over two years, probably due to derivative activity in world oil market.
2. Serious damage was done to US oil industry as result of 2 years of artificially low oil prices. Simmons said this. It is now showing up in American Petroleum Institute figures also, which I previously posted. Current API figures show that US crude production is now at 50 year low, amongst other equally dismal figures on drilling of new wells etc.
3. Per our local Mobile Oil dealer here at forum--I interpreted his original comments about refinery fires as
meaning so many fires were very unusual in his experience. However, he did not ascribe any other meaning to the fires--I am the one that did this. I extrapolated further implications to the fires.

Do these fires mean anything? I do not know. But along with the other pieces of information from a variety of sources above, I honestly believe the fires are worth scrutinizing further. I might also add that the refinery fires and the damage to US oil industry have all occurred at the same time FOA/Another have been here posting about dramatic changes coming in the US because of a re-evaluation of commodities, particularly oil.
Christine
@ Stranger--Barricks
Hello Stranger. I do not even pretend to be an expert on the issue of derivatives. I have followed the debate at Kitco on this. The conclusion, by Mozel for one, was that Barrick's will go bankrupt. If I understand the debate correctly, they attribute the problem to vast multiples of short derivatives Barrick's has piled on their original hedges. I know that you are experienced and knowledgeable in derivatives, and the markets, so you may very well be correct. My main point would be there is a large space for disagreement here by you guys who are knowledgeable, and where the truth lies is yet to be discovered.
Christine
@Aristotle--hedging all the way down
Your idea is one to watch for--

"If they can't succeed in obtaining offsetting contracts without a price explosion, couldn't they find other ways to hedge their financial exposure to the inevitable Gold losses? These are HEDGE funds, after all. For example, they could short the dollar to generate profits on the way down with which to continue buying their way out from under their remaining short Gold positions."

I like this idea. Would it make gold go all the higher?
jinx44
Au Vein - Gold Vanity
Welcome. I agree with gold. I am divested of my property for gold. When everything else falls hard, it will be mine for the taking.
Golden Vanity
@Aristotle
To expand it further would bring tears to the eyes and inhibit my keystrokes, Sir Aristotle,
but expound it I do to whoever will hear. Thank you for your kind words.
Once the gnosis... freedom is understood then one may move onward.
The throngs that do move in rivers to our shore have need of it and in the most basic
way find only the bones left behind. For them this desire for freedom, this the search
for the "philosophers stone",that starts out with desperation then a supreme confidence
that the magic formula is within their grasp, only to be finally disillusioned.
If one dose not find solace in the high road during these times of (no place to hide)
then all is vain.
JA
late night unwinding
This is the first opportunity I have had to visit the great minds that frequent this site. I just finished reading through today's discussion. Aristotle, YGM, Christine and others all made points that I would like to respond to, but it will have to wait until this weekend. It's been a busy day and there just doesn't seem to be enough hours any more. Was up at 5:30 to help son with paper route. A long day at work, lots of vacancies so the employment people come to see me and ask "why are we not paying more?" This is a sign we are experiencing full employment and starting to see salary inflation. I have worked for my current employer for 10 years and the employment picture is as tight as I remember it. (Stranger, I believe this is some of the inflation you have been anticipating that has not yet shown up in government data). I recently agreed to serve on the executive committee of the Local United Way Board. My wife asks why are you serving, you don't even agree with some of their programs. I said yes that's right but maybe I can provide a little different perspective. Well, I meet with this years Board Chairman who is the local University President, and a bank CEO who is Chairman for the neighboring county, both bright good people, but both would be rather "clue less" about the issues that get discussed at this site. I get home late and ask my son how his calculus test went. He said "I didn't finish it, they had a bomb threat at school" so they sent everyone home. Interesting world we live in. My wife reminds me that it is irrigation night and then that I had committed to finish planning our family vacation with her (Two weeks with the family traveling across the eastern half of the country visiting US and Church history sites). I will likely be traveling through many of your respective states. Which reminds me, I originally thought this site had more posters from the Western US, which it might, but overtime, I have come to realize it has a national and international flavor. Which is great because we get a wide range of perspectives but yet a fairly common view of the value and importance of gold.

All of that to say I can't post tonight and so will try this weekend. However as I have said before, I gain much from the wisdom, knowledge and ideas that are shared on this site. Hopefully at some time in the future I will be able to give a little back.
koan
Aristotle - the wonderful Greeks and Robert Service to boot
I live in the land of Robert Service; and the Greeks were my teachers. Only that they had survived, manknind would have advanced a thousand years beyond where we now stand, and probably much straighter. Those Greeks were almost there when the barbarians swept them from the face of the earth, burning their librarys and all the books. Clean, and vigerous humans they were crawling relentlessly over the rocks of ignorance toward a new civilized existance. And just as they almost reach their goal, the four horsemen of the Apocolyps cut them down - and for a 1,000 years therafter only a few whispers of truth were heard again through the newly risen barbarism. Oh you Greeks, had you made it, we would know so much more today. Alas what a shame. Watching s and g tomorrow with great interest.
SteveH
June gold now...
a lousy 277.30. Can you believe it?

JA, nice words.
Christine
@Koan--A perspective on where we may be at in historical evolution
@ Koan--Your comments on Greek civilization and what if it had survived--where would we be now--here is interesting perspective on that.

These are excerpts taken from "The Evolution of
Civilizations" by historian Carroll Quigley. Quigley analyzes the broad political/economic/social stages civilizations go through--he studied major civilizations as far back as Mayan/Aztec. He describes seven stages, all of which he analyzes with a most interesting economic framework. Per his view, western civilization would now be
transitioning into stage five:

"Achievement of political domination by a single (peripheral) state brings the civilization to Stage 5,
the Stage of Universal Empire. When a universal empire is established in a civilization, the society enters upon a "golden age." At least this is what it seems to the periods that follow it. Such a golden age is a period of peace and of relative prosperity. Peace arises from the absence of
any competing political units within the area of the
civilization itself, and from the remoteness or even
absence of struggles with other societies outside.
Prosperity arises from the ending of internal
belligerent destruction, the reduction of internal trade
barriers, the establishment of a common system of
weights, measures, and coinage, and from the extensive
government spending associated with the establishment of
a universal empire. But this appearance of prosperity is
deceptive. Little real economic expansion is possible because no real instrument of expansion exists. New
inventions are rare, and real economic investment is
lacking. The vested interests have triumphed and are
living off their capital, building unproductive and
blatant monuments like the Pyramids, the "hanging
Gardens of Babylon," the Colosseum...The masses of the
people in such an empire live from the waste of these
nonproductive expenditures. The golden age is really the
glow of overripeness, and soon decline begins."

Written by Quigley in 1961. At that time he described
western civilization as being in stage four. He also
suggests that in earlier stages civilizations can
regenerate themselves economically and restart through the stages. However, once into stage five, it is the
death bell for the civilization.

SteveH
june gold now...
at $276.40, was lower. Me' thinks the bottom is in for now. But then suprises are sudden.

Someone is really trying to test the composition of the floor. Steel or mud? I vote steel.
Christine
Gold monetization or demonetization$
Gold prices have been artificially low for a long time. Others have speculated as to who is acquiring all the
gold that has come to market as weak players have
divested. One can guess that gold ownership has been
further consolidated during this artificially low gold
price era. The internationalists would have
better control of a new gold-linked electronic currency via a very high price in gold, rather than a low fixed
price. A very high dollar price would make it virtually
impossible for any other currency or financial system to
compete with the new system. This would assume that gold
has now been consolidated and is under control by a
group of powerful internationists. With very high prices
($10,000 per ounce as FOA suggests), few others could
afford gold, and it would be difficult for any other
country to acquire enough reserves to compete. I would
imagine that under this scenario the governments would
initiate taxes and regulations to effectively take
control of the gold in the ground. Although this is gold
monetization, it is also a type of demonetization. Gold
would effectively become a monopoly item that few would
have access to, certainly not ordinairy citizens.
Cavan Man
On Stage Five
Christine....Interesting but, it appears Mr. Quigley is a different type of historian than those I commonly enjoy. He is one who is trying to call "heads or tails" before the coin lands. Could he be classified as a social historian? Anyway, much as I hate to admit it, a lot of history is written with a particular bias. While there might be some basis for comparison between his model of societal devolution or degeneration and the sorry state of affairs in this day and age, consider the following....

"no competing political units"-I submit to you that communism is alive and well and that the "free" world will survive to face off yet one more time with an "evil empire" in Reagan's words. Fundamentally, eastern civilization and western have always been divided culturally, socially and politically. You see, we do not understand one another very well. One need not look very far east either. For example, consider the Balkans. Very few Americans especially those in positions of power do not understand that part of the world.

"absence of struggles with other societies"-Again, I insist that communism is a model of political and social economy that we will continue to struggle with. Don't forget the Russians. Also, never forget Pearl Harbor and the absolute horror of the Japanese camps. Getting a little far afield...

"internal belligerents.."-We're all aware of the growing number of American citizens who are arrayed along a spectrim of significant dissatisfaction with the US government. I think we will all get opportunity to witness another tragedy on the scale of Oklahoma City

The more I think about it even out loud, there is so much cultural diversity in the world, how could "one world government" ever be cobbled together? Think about the ancient and not so ancient animosities and hatreds:

Greek-Turk
Arab-Jew
Armenian-Turk
Japanese-Korean
Russian-German
British-almost everybody else (just kidding)

Oh well, that's all for now. I am off to work. Regards
canamami
POG Down This Morning - Any Reasons?
The subject heading says it all. Has anyone heard what's driving down the POG this morning? I appreciate many on the Forum are pleased with the opportunity to acquire more physical gold cheap, but it would be good, IMHO, to see some reflection of gold's worth manifested in a rising POG.

In addition, any further news on the article to which Bill Murphy of GATA referred a couple of days ago? I know it was not published, but Bill Murphy clarified it was going published in the near future. Has anyone heard anything new about the timing of the release of the article?
The Stranger
Christine
Have you ever stopped to think that if you take the "L" out of gold you get "God", and "God" spelled backwards is "dog" and some dogs are Golden Retrievers, and the really eerie thing is that many Golden Retrievers are used for hunting in "JUNE". Somebody is behind this!
The Stranger
Make That "NEVER" Allowed to Hunt in June
By the way, this company and all its employees whose demise you so willingly advertise, is Barrick, not Barricks.
Christine
@The Stranger
My perception is I am being courteous to you. I wonder why you find the need to be discourteous to me. I perceive what you just posted as discourteous. It is sarcastic, and not debating the issues, IMHO.
TownCrier
Consumer Prices Jump in April
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990514/economy_5.htmlA sharper rise than was predicted. Stock and bond markets currently tanking on the news.
TownCrier
The Dow: A Graphical Look
http://www.thestreet.com/basics/reference/731400.htmlHey, this looks pointy enough to prick its own bubble! And keep in mind that the latest runnup to 11,000 is not included on the chart.
TownCrier
CPI's Bad News Knocks Stocks, Bonds for a Loop
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/wakeupcall/746959.htmlMore CPI commentary...rate hike possible from Fed.
TownCrier
George expects UK rate rise
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_343000/343608.stmBank of England governor Eddie George said he expects a weakening of the pound.
The Stranger
Farewell
I started posting here in January with a reinflation message that I have never wavered from. I hope that I brought some insight to the discussion. I know that I learned far more than I taught.

I believe this morning's PPI numbers put the icing on my message. The bull market in gold mining stocks is now well under way. No doubt the bullion will follow. I think now would be a good time to take my leave. I would particularly like to say goodbye to JA, Aristotle, turbohawg, Aragorn, Gandalf, Peter, canamami, CoBra(too) and Town Crier. These people, and a few others who I have undoubtedly left out, have never been more than messages on a video screen, yet, in a strange way, they have become some of my best friends. While I intend to check in from time to time, I have decided to hang up my password for awhile at least.

Michael, thanks for everything. You make the world a better place.
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Market Report: Nearly Double Digit Inflation Out of the Gate

5/14/99 Early Indications
 Current
 Change

 Gold
276.00
-1.50

 Silver
5.41
-.16

 Euro (June CME)
1.0744
+0.0058


MARKET REPORT (5/14/99): Market observers were astonished this
morning to see gold go down $1.50 in the face of a Consumer Price Index
surge of .7% which took the inflation level to just under double digits.
(At first, I thought it was a computer error.) Gold fall is even more astonishing
in the face of a full two point drop in the 30 year Treasury -- the benchmark
investment for dollar purist; a nearly 50¢ uptick in the price of
crude oil; and the Dow plummeting 110 points on the open. Yet, the primary
indicator of investor concern over inflation miraculously fails to respond?


All this lends additional credibility to the growing circle of analysts
who say that the metal is being manipulated -- that a Wall Street/ London/Washington
cabal is working to keep the gold price from rising in an effort to discourage
investors from leaving paper assets for the yellow metal, or worse working
to prevent an all out run to the metal that would undermine their large
and long established short positions. I say "worse" because if
the latter is the case the entire financial system might be threatened
by a run to gold.


Until proven otherwise, I will continue to harbor the opinion that the
Bank of England gold auctions are tied to the near (or actual) failure
of a major British financial institution involved in the gold carry (lending)
business. I see no other reason at this time why Britain's lender of last
resort would become so involved in the gold market at record low prices.
Somebody is getting bailed out and they need hard yellow metal to do the
bailing -- the printing press won't do.


My assumption is that the already strong market for physical gold will
step up worldwide as these inflation numbers are digested. Higher interest
rates are likely to follow and that is what the bond market is trying to
tell us. Alan Greenspan can act to counter the free market's drive for
higher interest rates by printing money. Such a policy would likely exacerbate
the problem. We still have the problem of the phantom federal deficit --
non-existent deficit if the politicians are to be believed -- which added
$115 billion to the national debt over the past 12 months. The market for
bonds is so bad that the Fed over the same period was forced to monetize
$33 billion (30%) of this non-existent debt to keep the government in business,
and it is the debasement of the dollar that oil-producers are reacting
to by cartellizing to drive energy prices higher.


But let's not waste our time talking of such banalities. What are internet
stocks doing this morning?


That's it for today. Have a good weekend, fellow goldmeisters.


The featured article in this month's News & Views centers
on government finance in an article entitled "The Financial State
of the Union."
I'm sure it contains many surprises for our readers.
There is a great deal of difference between what our government leaders
are telling us and the reality with respect to the government's books.
This issue is one or our best and most informative. Please go to our
ORDER FORM
or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of News
& Views
-- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory
packet on gold ownership.


For ongoing discussion on economic and political issues near and dear
to gold, please visit our USAGOLD
FORUM
and register to compete in our posting contest.
The winner will receive a beautiful French Angel coin from the 1880s --
a prize with a long history of providing its owners, including Napoleon,
a strong measure of good luck.

USAGOLD
Today's Gold Report: Nearly Double Digit Inflation Out of the Starting Gate
Please disregard the previous posting of today's report in html code. This one will be easier to read.
-----------

MARKET REPORT (5/14/99): Market observers were astonished this morning to see
gold go down $1.50 in the face of a Consumer Price Index surge of .7% which took the
inflation level to just under double digits. (At first, I thought it was a computer error.) Gold
fall is even more astonishing in the face of a full two point drop in the 30 year Treasury --
the benchmark investment for dollar purist; a nearly 50� uptick in the price of crude oil; and
the Dow plummeting 110 points on the open. Yet, the primary indicator of investor concern
over inflation miraculously fails to respond?

All this lends additional credibility to the growing circle of analysts who say that the metal is
being manipulated -- that a Wall Street/ London/Washington cabal is working to keep the
gold price from rising in an effort to discourage investors from leaving paper assets for the
yellow metal, or worse working to prevent an all out run to the metal that would undermine
their large and long established short positions. I say "worse" because if the latter is the
case the entire financial system might be threatened by a run to gold.

Until proven otherwise, I will continue to harbor the opinion that the Bank of England gold
auctions are tied to the near (or actual) failure of a major British financial institution
involved in the gold carry (lending) business. I see no other reason at this time why
Britain's lender of last resort would become so involved in the gold market at record low
prices. Somebody is getting bailed out and they need hard yellow metal to do the bailing --
the printing press won't do.

My assumption is that the already strong market for physical gold will step up worldwide as
these inflation numbers are digested. Higher interest rates are likely to follow and that is
what the bond market is trying to tell us. Alan Greenspan can act to counter the free
market's drive for higher interest rates by printing money. Such a policy would likely
exacerbate the problem. We still have the problem of the phantom federal deficit --
non-existent deficit if the politicians are to be believed -- which added $115 billion to the
national debt over the past 12 months. The market for bonds is so bad that the Fed over the
same period was forced to monetize $33 billion (30%) of this non-existent debt to keep the
government in business, and it is the debasement of the dollar that oil-producers are reacting
to by cartellizing to drive energy prices higher.

But let's not waste our time talking of such banalities. What are internet stocks doing this
morning?

That's it for today. Have a good weekend, fellow goldmeisters.

The featured article in this month's News & Views centers on government finance in an
article entitled "The Financial State of the Union." I'm sure it contains many
surprises for our readers. There is a great deal of difference between what our government
leaders are telling us and the reality with respect to the government's books. This issue is
one or our best and most informative. Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at
1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter
-- and introductory packet on gold ownership.

For ongoing discussion on economic and political issues near and dear to gold, please visit
our USAGOLD FORUM and register to compete in our posting contest. The
winner will receive a beautiful French Angel coin from the 1880s -- a prize with a long
history of providing its owners, including Napoleon, a strong measure of good luck.
USAGOLD
Stranger....
No fair trying to go out on top like our friend, Mr. Elway.

This Table Round will be a much emptier place without you. I have much valued what you have brought to this discussion. So I ask you to stay. Nay, it is your duty to stay.

But if you must do this, know that your chair, though empty, remains in place, goodly knight -- a chair of honor bestowed for great service to this chivalrous gathering of knights and ladies.

We go forward in this quest as do you. In search of the golden grail of knowledge and wisdom.

And Stranger.... Did you have to excuse yourself on a contest weekend? I beg you, kind sir, to reconsider.

??

YGM
BOYCOTT BARRICK, ANGLOGOLD AND ALL HEDGERS!!!
If you are not part of the solution you're part of the problem.
In the interest of a TRUE unemcumbered Gold Market all
Gold Mining Co's that unnecessarily (don't need the $$)
sell forward at ridiculous prices should be made to suffer on
behalf of the ones who try to give the best value to thier
shareholders. IMHO.

JA-- Futher discussions w/ YGM will be hard, as I have
finished battling water Gods and enviromentalists and now
FINALLY will get a new water licence, so I'm off to Mine.
(only a mounth late due to Gov't B.S. and weather!!)
Tommorrow we go make GOLD!!
See you all later thru the summer hope you all have a good one.
Thanks to ALL OF YOU for tolerance of a sometimes angry,
sometimes frustrated, but always appreciative guy who has
learned much here from many. Thank you MK & USA GOLD
for the site & opportunity to speak out and absorb all these
long months.YGM.

Go Gata & Gold & Especially all you truth seekers.
AEL
christine and strangers
Christine: Stranger's post (spelling correction) was pedantic and a bit heavy-handed, but nothing serious; big deal; we all have lapses; let it go.

Stranger: Please do not withdraw from the board on the basis of this little tiff; don't be a stranger; we've other fish to fry.

Both of you are appreciated.

-- AEL (the would-be peacemaker)
AEL
christine and strangers
Christine: Stranger's post (spelling correction) was pedantic and a bit heavy-handed, but nothing serious; big deal; we all have lapses; let it go.

Stranger: Please do not withdraw from the board on the basis of this little tiff; don't be a stranger; we've other fish to fry.

Both of you are appreciated.

-- AEL (the would-be peacemaker)
Al Fulchino
Thanking God
Yesrday I was travelling home on a two lane residential street. It has taken me unil this morning to grasp yesterday's events. I was proceeding behind two cars, when an
oncoming van lost control. Apparently, the driver was losing consciousness and swerved into our lane. He hit the car that was two in front, causing extensive damage and injury. This van then swerved left and again right and came between the car in front and myself. Who was controlling the van and more importantly who was controling me? It was so unexpected that there was no time for consideration of what to do. It all seemed to be in slow motion and I saw my hands being moved to turn the wheel. I swear it was beautiful. Yes it ws my hands, but I did not know what to do.
The van ended up throu a fence another 150 yrds away and down into a yard. I haven't found out what happenned fully to him.

You know we folk spend a lot of time worrying about our enemies, and they d0 exist. We spend a lot of time concerned with conspiracies, and they undoubtedly exist, as a result of evil people ultimately. But we often get so caught up in OUR abilities and inteligence that we forget that there is a superior being, who has asked that we only love him. He gave us eyes to see and understand. Let those who participate here not get on each other's nerves. This is a good group of peope. We have no need to shred each other up. I hope no member leaves. Let us not, not one of us, including me, let our pride get in our way
Al Fulchino
last sentence
I hope the very last sentence is not misconstrued
CoBra(too)
@YGM
May this season be your golden one. I personally would like to thank you for your relentless efforts pro our common cause. Though we all may be watching from different angles how this (rigged? - quite certainly after BoE and todays CPI) market unfolds,we can only hope that reality in terms of physical demand/supply will persevere soonest.

Again, take care about yourself and "Glueck Auf"
CoBra(too)
Voyager
HEADLINE NEWS
HEADLINE: FORT KNOX DISAPPEARS IN CREVASSE FROM EARTHQUAKE � GOLD DROPS $50.00

HEADLINE: INDIA AND PAKISTAN EXCHANGE NUCLEAR BOMBS � GOLD DROPS $100.00

HEADLINE: PRIME RATE REACHES 50% - GOLD DROPS $125.00

HEADLINE: STOCK MARKET CLOSES AT 950 � GOLD DROPS $150.00

HEADLINE: US TRADE DEFICIT REACHES $9,000,000,000,000.00 � GOLD DROPS $175.00

HEADLINE: ALL CENTRAL BANKS OF THE WORLD DECLARE BANKRUPTCY � GOLD DROPS $200.00

HEADLINE: 95% OF COMPUTERS CRASH ON JAN 1, 2000 � GOLD DROPS $225.00

HEADLINE: FOOD PRODUCTION DROPS BY 50% AS CALIFORNIA FALLS INTO OCEAN � PEOPLE PAY OTHERS TO TAKE GOLD OFF THEIR HANDS


Goldfly
Voyager.....

That was great.... but you forgot:

HEADLINE FRIENDLY GOLD-EATING SPACE ALIENS LAND AT CENTENIAL PRECIOUS METALS MICHAEL KOSARES SAYS "DEMAND UNPRECIDENTED" - GOLD DROPS $125
Voyager
(No Subject)
UPDATE TO HEADLINE NEWSCLINTON CROWNED EMPEROR FOR LIFE IN NEW WORLD ORDER - ALL GOLD LOADED ON ROCKETS AND BLASTED INTO SUN - GOLD RISES TO $1,000,000.00 PER OZ
TownCrier
Soros fund, betting against dollar, loses golden touch
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/vs.htmlSee, even George Soros was early in his estimates for the dollar's downfall. Does this make you feel any more smug?
USAGOLD
Market rumors....
Rumors from a good source (Mr. Insider):

A Matter of Convenience:

J Aron in New York shorted 300,000 ounces of gold today at the open by buying puts in the OTC market -- July $265's.
--

Big Buyer Yesterday:

Also, George Soros is in silver market as a buyer!
--

A Word about Market Rumors:

Those involved in the gold trade love to talk and love to swap stories. It's part of the fun of being involved in these markets. Please remember that rumors are not fact and no one should trade on something like this. This is offered simply for your interest. We have no way of verifying over the counter trades -- strictly between dealers/traders.

I'm not an expert on options and commodities, so asking me to decipher these events would be counter-productive. Perhaps one of our math/trader types can give us some guidance. I am told that a major Wall Street bank took the other side of the J Aron trade -- once again a rumor, though somebody had to take it.
TownCrier
Gold lower despite U.S. data, weak Wall Street
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/wh.htmlTraders expect gold higher by end of trading day.
koan
mystified - gold did not bounce and silver got trounced
As I mostly trade the junior canadian mining shares, most of which I bought, by luck alone, last August during that washout, I can weather this BOE debacle and whatever else is being thrown at us, but it is all sure curious. My stocks are weighted heaviest between silver and good exploration (or maybe not so good - did anyone say nuinsco?). Anyway, for me in some ways a flat mkt works best as I can more easily buy low, sell a little higher and then buy low again. However it would be nice to have a bit of a run, so my cash postion could imrove for when I wish to gamble on some of that internet stuff. At least it is all great theater.
koan
Christine: Civilization
Thank You for that interesting article. My view has always been that the evolution of civilizations is more the evolution of the collective conscious of the human species. Therefore, I do not view changes in civilizations as always cyclical, but rather changing qualitatively not just quantitatively. a progression toward a more complex reasoning process e.g. very little slavery left in the world, existential thought, ungarded borders (canada-US), womens rights etc. Being more thoughtful and less hateful might be another.
Golden Truth
"The Stranger is very strange"
Hello Mr Stranger first of all why don't you pick on some one your own size,and gender? It seems that you are obviously employed at Barrick Gold or your a Canadian or both of the above. It was quite apparent in remark about Barrick and not BARRICKS.So you(A):must think that all Americans are dumb or (B): you are extremely prejudice,or(C)hate has infected your heart. I say all the above.To the rest of the good Knights at this round table let me say i have listened very carefully to what has been said and how it's been said. I posted for my very first time to apologize to F.O.A aweek or so ago about the rude comments fired at Another. F.O.A at that time said a person like that has no further consideration of input at such time.Guess who that rude person was? So i believe what goes around comes around. Let me see now what was said to Another oh yah! I remember, but From one Canadian to another Canadian (Up yours--Pal)!!My utmost apologizes to anyone else i might of offended but it needed to be said. I hope i,am still welcome to post here and i've not formally introduced my self properly as yet. Hi I,am Golden Truth and Canadian. I also agree with Y.G.M boycott Barricks (oops)I mean Barrick.First of all Brian Mulroney has a vested interest and he screwed the Canadian people for 8 years and still is with his involment in Barricks(OOPS)Ihave to wonder why the Canadians are bombing we are liked all over the World but after this I doubt we will be. Look at China a Canadian girl was attacked in the back of a cab. Anyways i truely believe the Gold Market is about to explode when people find out the real truth about our fiat currencies.It willbe shouted from the rooftops!!!!!!!!!!Also M.K thankyou for my two books the A.B.C's of Gold investing and in the Footsteps of Giants,and for autographing your book. To Christine take Heart! To the Stranger be prepared to give the Great and Powerful " I AM!" a explanation about about his Holy name being spelled backwards. Thanks Golden Truth
USAGOLD
Hear Ye...Hear Ye....A Call to Contest!!
Come gather round this table my friends
And let us enter into a posting contest.
It has been more than a month
Since we so engaged ourselves
But the wheel has turned again
And we find ourselves at another crossroads.
Through these last few months
There is much that we have learned from each other.
Much that we have learned of gold
And the international economy.
Now we find ourselves under attack again
The golden ring snatched from our grasp.
Which brings me to why I ask you to gather here
through this weekend with Spring comforting the once cold land.
To answer this question from the heart (and enobled mind):
What has gold done for me?
These profits are not always of the material sort.
And the comforts not always market related.
The price stays rangebound.
Yet we return to this noble table night after night --
Week after week.
Why?
What is the hold this enchanting yellow metal has on us?

--------

The contest will go through the weekend, til the clock in the mountains strikes midnight on Sunday, May 16.
The prize
will be the beautiful and lucky French Angel weighing .1867 pure gold ounces. It is a fitting prize indeed since
it is the
angel that inspired the French constitution and bears the inscription "Liberte Equalite Fraternite. It is said that
an early
version of this lucky lady accompanied Napolean in all his battles until he lost it -- the day before Waterloo.
Two silvers
will be awarded the runners-up. The runner up posts can be off-subject this time, but if they are the post must
encompass at least one of the Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse -- Y2K, Overvalued Stocks, the Asian
Contagion, Euro
Introduction and now Rising Oil.

------

An additional 1/10 ounce Austrian Philharmonic will be awarded the poster who can come closest to guessing
the
closing price of gold on the COMEX on Friday, May 21,1999 the June contract. The reasons why must
accompany the
post and be of at least 30 words.

I would ask that the gold guesses are in the subject box surrounded by stars*****.

The "What Has Gold Done for Me" posts must be identified in the subject box with number signs #####.
Each poster
get's one shot at the big prize so make it good.

Good luck, fellow knights and ladies. May the best post win.
NORTH OF 49
Time for a "TimeOut"!!
I hope I speak for the rest of the forum when I say that I was just a tad more comfortable when the subjects examined here pertained to gold.

No49
jinx44
Angels in army boots
MK---An aspersive aside to your congenial offer of gold.

The bloody French Republic had a fourth moniker to go with the Liberty, Fraternity, Egality (not equality). That was "or Death" Europe has and will be a fuedal monarchical society. Freedom and Liberty are truly anathema to them. It is no wonder europe is the seat of the NWO. However, since gold is inert, it should withstand the communistic association with the Frogs.
Golden Truth
Inflation
Has anyone seen the panic in the markets at the present time long bonds almost at 6%.The news flashes at the bottom of Bloomberg's T.V screen are only comments from goldmans Cohen trying to calm the Herd. The storm that is coming is now building soon the herd will be spooked by and nothing will save them short of many Golden parachutes soon to be in very short supply. GO GOLD, GO G.A.T.A and goodbye low interest rates. Hello Another and F.O.A come on down.!!!!
Aristotle
Did someone raid the castle treasure room or spoil our casks of ale while I was away?
What a surly group today. Sheeeeeeeesh!

Christine, from last evening--you certainly did a good service to point out the refinery fires. We must continue to observe and gather more data, entertain several hypotheses along the way, and ultimately reach a conclusion when one is eventually borne out by the evidence. In the meanwhile, let's kick back and enjoy the show.

Stranger, don't stray beyond a day's ride from the castle's walls. But if you must insist on travelling far afield, I must insist you pick up that short stack (five will do nicely) of Gold coins we talked about long ago. Ok, Ok, I know you're a stock man, but I really believe you would enjoy having them around, a memento of your gold-hearted friends. I know MK's stock turns over faster than hotdogs at a double-header, but maybe you'll luck out and he can piece together an assortment of Gold francs...Swiss, Belgian, and French angel and rooster. Ok, make it four coins instead of five. People spend more on disposable hobbies. You'll have these forever. At least consider it. At the least, it will help keep your mining co's busy...sorta.

Dr. Jones, did you catch my excerpt from Robert Service last night? From "The Spell of the Yukon" I believe. One of North America's finest. Can the Oil Patch claim any such noble talent and passion? I'm sure the hard work has inspired the words of more than a few, also.

Koan-- Alas, such a body of Greeks would certainly have kept the Dark Ages from being so dark, and would hold at bay any thought of them returning. But now, I believe, that same torch has been passed on to us--the true goldhearts.
TownCrier
Refinery fire strikes Ivory Coast
Abidjan--May 13--1517 ET--A major fire broke out today at an oil refinery
here, firefighters said, adding that they had no immediate reports of any
casualties.
All fire engines from the city's fire stations and the airport had been
rushed to fight the blaze at the Societe Ivoirienne de Raffinage plant,
and a French infantry battalion, deployed here under a bilateral accord,
was also called into action. A thick cloud of smoke rose over the city. By
Agence France-Presse

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN
Golden Truth
Gold will now rise!!! Sound Familiar?
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=blg/yhooGold just got liberated. Check this out best news i've seen in mainstreet media and speaks the truth. Now no matter what is said its only down hill from here.Fear is about raise its ugly Head.
The Invisible Hand
Refinery fire strikes Ivory Coast
Could this be Y2k related?
The Invisible Hand
Refinery fire strikes Ivory Coast
Could this be Y2k related?
TownCrier
White House may decide on easing Iraq oil embargo
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/3n.htmlCould Iraq become our 51st state? In the past, they have been "allowed" to participate in an "oil for food" program. Maybe now they will be embraced as a friend if Iraq "allows" the US to participate in a "dollars for oil" program.

Just shake-shake-shaking up the thoughts a bit. Never take TownCrier seriously.
TownCrier
Wheeeeeeeee!!
http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htmCharts of the stomach-lifting end-of-day slide in the markets.
TownCrier
Odyssey to Search for ``Gold Rush'' Shipwreck
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990514/fl_odyssey_1.htmlI want to help! Where do I sign up?
Daydreaming on a Friday afternoon....
Quixote
##### gold is all that glitters #####
noble knights and ladies,

i have but lately come into possession of a significant disposable income, and as yet have little to show for my efforts. i desire only to have something to show for my labors on this world. something convenient, yet worthy of owning in-and-of itself, not just a representation of value.

i began to buy silver. the metal felt good in my hand, hard and cold. the shape of the coins was pleasing. they say that a circle is the perfect shape, having the maximum area for it's circumference. spheres would, of course, offer the most volume for the surface area, but they cannot be stacked. i enjoyed stacking my silver, but soon bored with the ease at which i was able to acquire the stuff. i had always assumed that the wealthy of old built counting houses for pleasure. as my silver began to stack up, i realized that such a structure would be a necessity.

i have since turned to gold, only recently acquiring what a friend calls the minimum number of coins required to comprise a 'stack'. the gold is heavier than silver, as if somehow the earth is more reluctant to part with it. the color is warmer too, inspiring lust as only the flesh colors can. most importantly, it is hardest won, and therefore most dear to me.

i have listened to the learned posters of this forum coolly, and logically discuss the nuances of economics, and have been able to follow only a small part of it. i have listened to your calm recounting of purchases which i can assume would dwarf my entire holding, and i am reverent. but you must envy me this; the newness of my love for the stuff. every time i lift a coin i am still shocked at the weight of it. each time i look at the surface, i am still awed at the shine of it. each new coin i obtain still increases my pile by a significant percentage. three pleasures none can enjoy more fully than i.

humbly yours,

quixote
TownCrier
US aims to slap EU with $202 mln in duties
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/33.htmlFirst bananas, now beef is the excuse to apply 100% tariffs on goods from the EU. The bottom line is the dollar won't be buying as much as it once did. Smoke and mirrors?
beesting
From London-sorry Townie can't wait!
http://bizyahoo.com/rf/990514/4a.htmlFast breaking news article with deletions still in.
British officials are looking at ways to WEAKEN sterling on the assumption Britian should join EMU at a rate between 75 and 80 pence per euro..........beesting
TownCrier
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review: Gold hits 9-mo low, silver plunges [FWN is on holiday--TC]
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 14--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $1.90 at $276.20 per
ounce after hitting a contract low of $275.80--also a 9-month low on
continuation charts. Gold fell back on disappointment over its feeble reaction
to today's US CPI figures which suggested growing inflationary pressures, and
was also hurt by the dollar's strength against the yen. Jly silver settled down
18c, 3.3%, at $5.39 per ounce, erasing all of Thursday's gains and falling to a
1-week low of $5.34.

They mostly shrugged off a surprising jump in April's US CPI report this
morning, which suggested an acceleration in inflationary pressures. US consumer
prices rose 0.7% in April, well above analysts expectations for a 0.4% rise,
driven by a record surge in gasoline prices. The CPI core rate rose 0.4%, also
well above the expected 0.1% gain. The CPI rise was the highest since October
1990.

While the report hinted of future inflation, it also raised concerns that
the US Federal Reserve may soon hike interest rates and this sent bond prices
crashing. While gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, traders said there are
worries that higher interest rates on bonds would give another reason to buy
another financial instrument other than gold.
"This could be really bearish for gold. If banks can take money and buy
financial paper and get better yields, it's another reason not to buy
gold," a trader said.
The trader added that few people believe that gold can provide a good hedge
against inflation. "I think that gold needs more than this single CPI figure to
arrest its decline," said James Steel, analyst at Refco. It also requires
sustained weakness in equities and the dollar to get a push higher, he said.
Dealers also said there were some large option plays in gold this morning
contributing to today's weakened tone.
Gold is also remaining under pressure from news last Friday that the UK
Treasury would sell over half of its gold reserves. Also casting a black cloud
over the market are further gold sales proposal from the International Monetary
Fund and Swiss National Bank.

Silver was hurt by gold's slide and had also seen sentiment dented as it
failed to build on Thursday's 18.7c gain in overnight trade. As it fell here, it
gathered pace, falling under $5.40 resistance and triggering sell stops which
brought in fund selling.
Its failure to build on Thursday's strength, which had seen Jly jump to a 2
1/2 month high of $5.58 per ounce, led to "massive unwinding" of gold-silver
spreads, said James Steel, analyst at Refco. He said that Thursday's speculative
interest in silver had pushed the gold-silver ratio to the lowest level for many
years.
The unwinding of those spreads hurt silver prices and failed to benefit gold
prices which were already under attack. "Yesterday's silver jump was possibly a
false rally," Steel warned.
Silver, however, is looking much better from a fundamental perspective, most
players agree, and has been able to withstand most of gold's selling pressure in
recent days. One trader said he was disappointed that Jly silver was unable to
climb back above the $5.40 level, although suggested it may still be possible to
"salvage a rally in silver."

Some suggest silver, as an industrial metal, has been trading more in line
with base metals lately, and with most LME base metals trading lower this
morning, silver came under pressure.

Platinum edged lower in line with gold, while Jun palladium settled up 75c
at $343 per ounce after edging to a 2-week high of $347 per ounce. Palladium
continues to edge higher on Russian political turmoil. Russian communists said
today that they were confident that the Duma would get more votes than needed to
start president Boris Yeltsin's impeachment.

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $276.2, dn $1.9; RANGE: $278.9-275.8

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
beesting
Try this URL on last post.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/4a.htmlI shouldn't try typing blindfolded.......beesting
Aristotle
Quixote...most excellent!
http://www.inform.umd.edu/EdRes/ReadingRoom/Fiction/Eliot/SilasMarner/chapter-02A splendid inaugural post for the weekend ahead! To read your words is to wish in small part to start over again. But take heart in this thought, as your feelings gave me a chance to reexamine my own; the emotion you feel over your hard-won pay stays strong even as the years pass by and the act itself becomes routine.

Good Sir, click on the above link to enjoy my gift to you for sharing your words that ring with truth, and pierce with focused enlightenment. The link is chapter 2 from a classic for all gold hearts...Silas Marner. Enjoy--again, if not for the first time! ---Aristotle
TownCrier
Tea leaves--into the weekend
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990514/52.htmlIMM currencies end down,price in higher U.S. rates

(beesting...thanks for the good follow-up to msg# 6104)
canamami
Brief Post: Inflation - Gold - Interesting Points
On another gold site, a writer made a couple of interesting points. First, the POG did not fall due to disappointment in gold's failure to rally on the CPI numbers. Rather, apparently the POG was already down $1.90 when the CPI numbers were released. Second, gold generally has a delayed reaction in rising in reply to bad economic news. Hence, some delay between the release of the CPI numbers and a rise in the POG is to be expected. A response in the POG will not happen on the same day.
THX-1138
Oil pipeline in Peru
This was posted on Gold-Eagle forum.
Can anyone find any news articles to verify this?

"The peruvian crude transportation duct, that transports crude from the jungle to the coast, has been covered by a landslide, and will be out of order for a while."
Tomcat
Christine

Christine, I want to let you know that your posts are of interest and of value.

One of the great things about this forum is that it creates an opportunity for us to break out of our traditonal views of finance, gold, and the world. Something I value in your posts is your courage to state it as you see it. It is easy to repeat what is said elsewhere and add a thought of your own. It is harder to let it all out with the possiblility of being criticized.

I do not come here to stagnate by reading what I agree with but rather to grow by reading views that challenge me. I disagree with much of what Gary North concludes about Y2k. However, he gets many to think and question the pablum that is fed to the masses.

I won't forget a while back when a post to you looked like an attack. Your kind response was that you felt the person was jesting. He then kindly replied that he was and the incident was over. Such tolerance. Such care. Bravo.

Keep posting Christine. We need you.
Tomcat
Quixote

Refreshing post Sir Quixote. You are in touch with the gold of life. May your exuberance never be replaced with the apathy of "Been there. Done that".
YGM
Tomcat---HEAR! HEAR!
Sir: You've said it all! This forum and Gold Eagle are the
only two sites I've found where "Everyones posts" have
value. Kitco also has much to offer w/ a few radicals
thrown in the mix. Those who have a common cause and
goals need to unite not fight! Adios--YGM
Richard, Oregon
More Precious Than Gold
Re: Al Fulchino (5/14/99; 9:40:26MDT - Msg ID:6112)
Thanking God - Thank God you are safe. I just got home. Printing off forum to read while watching the news. Your post hit home for me and my wife. About 3 years ago we were hit nearly head-on by a drunk driver. He came around a curve towards us, weave side to side once, then shot across our front. '89 Chev Suburban had the center grill to passenger-side fender removed. We were doing about 40mph, had slowed down from 55mph and pulled onto the shoulder. Bounced back about 8 feet. Everyone ok, just back and neck problems. It helps you put things into perspective real fast. You know who was in control. The only ONE "more precious than gold". May God speed your healing. Richard
Christine
@Koan
As per your 11:02. What you say is my philosophy also. Believe it or not, I don't always say everything I think if it is not relevant to my point at hand.
Al Fulchino
Richard
if u r comfortable with the thought please email me at fulchinos@prodigy.net. It would likely be better to take the point elsewhere than the forum. amd keep it on topic. But I have some Oregon questions for you. Thanks -Al
koan
questions?
The stock mkt has been rising under perfect conditions. Now oil and commodities are rising, interest rates are rising - so it looks bad for the stock market; but, we humans, are pretty limited in our ability to see the future. How many really saw the true power of the internet 10 years ago, 5 years ago, last year. It was there to see. So maybe we are in a really new paradigm which is even more powerful than we now imagine. Things are moving so fast. Asia will get very strong and modern very fast, which should improve commodities and change the face of many markets. I think most of us are going to need to do more reacting than proacting. Personally, I just watch very closely. These are facinating times.
THX-1138
North Korea Preparing For War
http://www.worldtribune.com/three.htmlInteresting article. How come this hasn't been reported TV today? Looks like Clinton has started spreading our forces a little thin. Remember the last time we were at war with North Korea, China decided to join in.
jls
Conspiracies
http://conspire.lycos.com/pics.htmlPeople whose appetites for mysteries, detective stories, and
conspiracies are unabated despite Aragon III's post of (5/13/99) 5:12:40MDT will enjoy the website at this URL.
Jade
J. Aron
MK..Was not J. Aron aquired by Goldman Sachs in the early seventies, with Bob Rubin working the merger into the Goldman fold for many years, thus acquiring his great expertise in the world Gold markets. J. Aron just about invented the CB Gold leasing game.
Peter Asher
While were on the subject
The Oregon Y2k E-mail letter site had to set up a separate entity solely for the conspiracy buffs, due to heavy traffic.
Peter Asher
While we're on the subject
The Oregon Y2k E-mail letter site had to set up a separate entity solely for the conspiracy buffs, due to heavy traffic.
Farfel
Farfel's Dear Friends of GATA and Gold: GATA Chairman Bill Murphy is on the road for a couple of days and there doesn't seem much to share tonight about the gold market beyond the usual sources that you probably check anyway, so I'll share this corre


A Letter Sent to Chris Powell of GATA:

--------------------------------------
May 14, 1999

Dear Chris:

I understand your frustration that gold has been
perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But
to argue that it is being manipulated due to large
short positions is not justified.

There is no interest in gold at this time and the
central banks are all sellers. After they sell their
gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those
supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that
supply and your bull market will begin.

I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200
before it turns.

I find it extremely one-sided how a Buffet and company
of tagalongs is not a manipulation because they buy,
while selling is a manipulation. The very guys you
argue are manipulating gold down were big sellers of
gold and buyers of silver during the Buffet rally.

GS or not, the economy simply does not support your
position. And I do not want to hear how I am short or
some nonsense to try to discredit my views, because it
is not true. PEI owns a 51 percent stake in a public
gold mine in Australia. That is my long-term view; it
does not change my short-term view.

You cannot make a case for gold manipulation when
central banks are willing sellers. They have
demonetized gold and that is a simple fact of life. If
you want a free market, then don't stand in the way of
this bear market. Let the central bankers sell
everything they have and then there will be no overhead
supply to worry about. You cannot argue manipulation
and take the position that these guys are not allowed
to sell what they have.

The banks know what is coming and if they sell ahead of
the central banks, so be it -- that's a free market.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG
Princeton Economics

* * *

Farfel's Response:

May 14, 1999


Dear Martin:


I understand your frustration that gold is refusing to collapse below 200 as you have projected ad nauseum in the past. Despite every scare tactic on the part of the gold short cartel, gold seems determined to remain within a floor range of 270-290. No matter how many times major US leaders and their Allies declare future central bank gold sales, gold just hangs in there and the fear of gold investors diminishes with each passing day. Obviously, somebody or some consortium is buying gold and a good deal of it...or surely you would have had your much desired gold collapse by now. It truly appears a gold short squeeze remains a
potential threat... and no amount of conspiratorial efforts by certain First World nations and Wall Street investment firms to trash the yellow metal are proving successful. America may wish to dollarize the entire world...but there are a variety of nations that no longer subscribe nor
endorse American global hegemony. These nations are becoming increasingly confrontational with America and, should a significant schism develop (a new Cold war?), then US Dollar hegemony will be tossed out the window in an instant, most likely supplanted for an indefinite period of time by a neutral trade currency with historical, intrinsic
value (yes...gold).

Contrary to your assertons, there is a GREAT deal of interest in gold today. That is why various world leaders seem to have it on their minds, day in and day out. Hardly a day goes by where some major government leader does not talk about gold in prominent statements to the media. In their very eager desire to disparage the yellow metal,
Western leaders actually succeed in drawing interest to it.

Various governments (China, India, Russia, etc) who are not entirely thrilled with US Dollar hegemony are big purchasers of gold today. There may come a day where the US Dollar is repudiated by these governments and then we will see a major bull market in the metal. Oh, I know, Martin, no doubt you will readily dismiss Russia and describe it as some fallen, inconsequential nation today. However, I would never describe a country providing most of East Europe's oil...most of the world's palladium and platinum...and owning some 20,000 nuclear warheads as an inconsequential country. The US and various Allies would find it very difficult if Russia were ever to shut off its commodities tap or begin rattling its nuclear arsenal, no matter
how dismal its current economic status.

Martin, the notion that all central banks must sell their gold before there can be a major gold bull market is preposterous and could only come from the mind of a devoted gold short. If all central banks sell their gold, then gold will be consigned to the dustbin of history, never
to rise up again. You might as well sell that Australian gold mine of yours ASAP because if all central banks sell their gold, then you better not count on gold trading for more than a new equilibrium short-term price of $50 an ounce. Gold's value is in its scarcity and its PRECIOUS quality. Gold at a price around $50 an ounce in a country
where $50 hardly buys a good haircut anymore...well, Martin, it simply is NOT precious. Next thing you know, such low priced gold will be used commercially for toilet seat lids or some other mundane use. Such devaluation cannot and will not happen, least of all in a world economy speedily reflating itself.

Martin, I hate to tell you but gold will surpass $1000 an ounce in the event of a collapse in the extant, American-dominated global status quo.

I know you are also frustrated with the precious metals in general because you hold an enormous silver short position and Warren Buffett came into your life and upset all your dreams of obscene wealth. You call Mr. Buffett's investment a "manipulation," while most others would simply call it another extremely astute Buffett investment. I do not
understand why you are so mad at the man. He holds his silver quietly and, unlike various Central Banks or Western leaders, he hardly ever talks about his silver cache. When will you ever stop railing against the man? At least he is not a regular silver propagandist in the manner in which you are an inveterate gold mudslinger.

Although you often engage in endless sophistries (such as suggesting that you are NOT short gold because you own a gold mine in Australia??), your ownership of a gold mine does not alter the categorical reality of your endless, current war on the yellow metal. Incidentally, Barrick
Gold owns many gold mines but, since it hedged 80% of its production around 400 an ounce, then it is in Barrick's interests that the price of gold falls dramatically, at least in the short term! Such a price dive would bankrupt many medium and junior gold producers, entabling Barrick
to dive in and scoop up them up for mere pennies on the dollar.

Martin, it is quite easy to make a case for gold manipulation when various US-friendly central banks constantly make announcements pertaining to FUTURE sales of gold. No central bank possessed of a scintilla of common sense would ever choose a strategy designed to diminish the value of a primary asset PRIOR to its sale...unless such
strategy serves the covert purpose of upholding or increasing the value of much more highly-prized competitive assets (e.g., US Dollar, bonds, equities, etc.).

Martin, it is an understatement to say that there is gold manipulation today by Wall Street and those central banks friendly to the "New Era" agenda. So long as gold retains intrinsic value; so long as paper, fiat currencies are mere articles of faith; and so long as there are major central banks at odds with American global hegemony, then gold will not be demonetized. Moreover, no Western central bank possessing a scintilla of common sense would throw away every single ton of gold in its vaults in the event that a day arrives where American global hegemony collapses and the US Dollar along with it.

Martin, get out of the way of the impending gold bull. Cover your gold short position and increase your ownership interest in your Australian gold mine, provided it summarily closes out its hedges. Gold is a beast that has
been kept tied to a rope far too long, ready to bust free with a fury and unGodly power.


Yours Fondly,


Farfel
Farfel
Farfel's Response to Martin Armstrong. Dear Friends of GATA and Gold: GATA Chairman Bill Murphy is on the road for a couple of days and there doesn't seem much to share tonight about the gold market beyond the usual sources that you probably check an
Correction:

Subject of Previous Post SHOULD read:

Farfel's Response to Martin Armstrong.
Oregon Geezer
Agreement with North of 49 message #6125
I tend to agree in principle with the intent of your message #6125. However, as I have experienced in other specific subject web sites, it is impossible to adhere strictly to stated topic. We all have ideas, opinions, questions and beliefs which have been formed by our experiences. To not refer to these experiences from time to time is to remove prespective and thus understanding.
Yes, I am here to learn about gold from those who are much wiser and more experienced. I do learn a little bit after floating in a sea of alphabet soup and the argot of the subject, but I am way behind. Side issues and links to other web sites help to stimulate my interests and aid in my education.
Thank you for bringing up the issue.
canamami
Globe and Mail - Gold Articles - May 15, 1999
Today's (May 15, 1999) Globe and Mail (for those who have the possibility of buying it) contains various articles concerning gold. I would say (from a quick speed read) the predominant tone is negative to gold, though all sides are presented. There is also an interview with Peter Munk. Gotta go.
USAGOLD
Comments/Responses:
Quixote: Whether you hold a single gold coin with two fingers or a hundred with two hands, the place gold fills in the mind brings new comfort. Gold is for all of us, Quixote, and as you say eloquently, yielded by a "reluctant" Earth.

Beesting: Thanks for interesting link. I think alot of water is going to go under the bridge before Londoners fold euros and stick them in their pocket. (Sorry FOA)

Aristotle: It's uncanny the links you come up with (the Silas Marner being the latest). Thanks for keeping the Academy open and bringing the "golden mean" to this Table Round.

Tomcat: I second your appraisal. All ideas are welcome here as well as the good graces and mutual accord granted one poster to another. We do not have to be worried about the Oriental curse "May you live in interesting times." We are experiencing those times now (as we participate at this FORUM). As a result, we need to cut each other a little slack as each individual tries to focus what is at times a blur. We do not need to win on every point. We only need to advance our common knowledge and understandings and assess with mutual respect and understanding what each brings to this table.

Christine and THX: These oil industry disasters do appear to be an anomaly. I would suggest getting a world map and pinning all the locations to see if there is some sort of commonality to the incidents.

Al Fuchino: Each day is a blessing.

YGM: Thanks for the good rating and thanks for gracing this Table with your presence. It is people like you and the rest of the fine people gathered here who make this FORUM what it is. I have had several e-mails in the past few months saying that this is not only the best FORUM on gold, several have called it the best FORUM on the internet.

Koan, canamami: I have an interesting story to tell about the stock market and changes in the financial environment that I will tell later today (I hope).

Jade: I don't know, but if it's true, it gives great credence to the Goldman Sachs story making the rounds. J Aron has consistently led Wall Street's attack on gold. I can remember three or four years ago having breakfast with Jeffrey Christian at the Brown Palace, (Jeffrey heads up the prestigious Wall Street think tank -- CPM Group) and talking about JAron. That was before we started to get a handle on what's going on in the gold market and we were making educated guesses.

Farfel: Another brilliant essay with the bite of a good cognac. Thank you again for your consistent and well conceived defense of gold and offense against its detractors. You are truly a formidable knight in this war for the liberation of the grail.

All: I'm so used to writing in the morning that it seems I can't start the day without it. Thanks for giving something to write about.











JA
Stranger
Your contributions to this round table have been appreciated. I find the information that gets exchanged on this site a little addictive. Since you mentioned that you still intend to look, but may be a little less active in terms of regular comments. I suspect one of these days in the near future someone will say something that you will not be able to resist responding to. When that happens I will be interested in your thoughts. And yes, this weeks events suggest you are right about inflation. Now I am just waiting for the masses to recognize that gold and gold stocks are a wise investment in times of high inflation.
JA
Golden Truth
Just to set the record straight, Stranger is neither a Canadian resident nor an employee of Barrick. However he is someone who has done well investing in the stock market in the last decade and thus his opinion is valued
JA
Aristotle
Since it has been a couple of days, I have repeated your comments and question from post #6801 below and then tried to respond.

JA, you certainly did have some good thoughts on the possible consolidation of Hedge Fund Gold shorts within the Goldman Sachs shop for the reasons you mentioned. It would also not be inconceivable that cooperation among funds has possibly resulted in the transfer of short positions from more than only LTCM to GS if this remains one of the few vehicles with wheels.

I'm not sure how to interpret this comment though, "Rubin, as a former executive of Goldman Sachs, knows the short position is about to be exposed so he resigns in advance of it being made public."

Granted, 1,000 tonnes short is certainly an odd position to be in, but it is entirely legal. On top of that, Rubin no longer works there. Why must he feel compelled to resign his Treasury job on that account? Also, as it appears hopeless for the various funds to deliver metal to cover their short position, wouldn't the goal be to settle the contracts on paper in any conceivable fashion? If they can't succeed in obtaining offsetting contracts without a price explosion, couldn't they find other ways to hedge their financial exposure to the inevitable Gold losses? These are HEDGE funds, after all. For example, they could short the dollar to generate profits on the way down with which to continue buying their way out from under their remaining short Gold positions. Sec. Rubin has been kicking the idea of resignation around for a while now. I wouldn't be surprised that he wants out of the public eye when things turn ugly, but I'd be surprised to see him time the event so close to crap actually hitting the fan. But then, maybe he thought time was on his side, and now he knows it is very, very short. Well, time reveals all. ---Aristotle


Response

My thoughts were purely speculation and based on the rumor that Goldman Sachs was short 1,000 tonnes of gold. It may still turn out that it was only a rumor. But here is my thinking. First unlike the major media, I do not have a very high opinion of Rubin. Much of my opinion is based on some of the actions he took in the Mexican Bailout, Goldman Sachs and other New York firms were heavily invested in Mexico and in my mind he misappropriated US taxpayer funds without authorization from Congress to bail them out among other things. While it has been several years ago, I read several articles that would suggest there were lots of rather shady deals related to the Mexican Bailout and he was in the middle of much of that.

Now more to your question. While Rubin no longer works for Goldman Sachs, in the minds of the people his name is still closely tied to Goldman Sachs. If news were to come out that reflected poorly on Goldman Sachs particularly if It looked like they were involved in an extremely risky position or possible illegal deal it would reflect poorly on Rubin. Because of the financial information available to someone in Rubin's position there is great potential for abuse. For example lets take Friday's inflation numbers, if you or I had access to that information prior to press time we would have the potential to became very wealthy individuals, that is if we were willing to compromise our integrity. If it were actually made public that Goldman Sachs was short 1,000 tonnes of gold my thought was that there would be a major outcry from the many new stockholders, saying it was not disclosed to us that we were buying into this kind of risk. If that were the case investigations would really start. While Goldman Sachs may be able to prove what they did was not illegal, that would not mean it was not wrong.

Unfortunately we have become a nation of rationalizers rather than a nation of law abiders. As long as the economy is healthy we allow our government officials to lie, cheat and steal. I am convinced that what occurred with LTCM is contrary to existing antitrust laws and in past years people would have been prosecuted for such actions.

In a field, I am a little bit familiar with, several years ago there was a case against the health industry for the way they shared salary survey information. If it is illegal for competing hospitals to collude on how they pay their people, it would seem to me that it may be illegal for the largest banks and Brokerage houses to come together and collude on how to salvage a highly leveraged private hedge fund. It would be impossible to discuss how to salvage a hedge fund without disclosing how one were invested or about to invest in a number of other areas. If I were privy to that information I suspect I could again become wealthy rather quickly. I am no authority on antitrust laws but it is my understanding they were past to prevent certain parties to have unfair advantage over others in matters of investing.

The Hunt brothers got into trouble for trying to corner the silver market, but when powerful banks and brokerage houses do similar things with gold we rationalize that it is okay. I believe there is clearly a double standard.

I digress a little, back to Rubin, if investigative reports were snooping around Goldman Sachs activities, they would likely know if a story was about to break and they would likely tell their old leader Rubin. You are right, he had been about to resign for sometime anyway, so he says I had better do It now to get a little further from the limelight. He would want to distance himself from all the issues that could arise.

As to your point, could they not just sell the dollar short, I suppose the could, however I suspect the entities that salvaged LTCM have much of their wealth based on the strength of the dollar, so to short the dollar may be self defeating.

All of that and for all we know the $1,000 short issue is just a rumor.
JA
YGM
I wish you well in your mining endeavors this season. I have mentioned here before I have some experience with gold mining claims, but for me it is more of a hobby. I look forward to the day when the price of Gold will return to it's proper value and then it could become more than a hobby to me. Government regulations permitting
JA
Christine, Aragon and others, on comments related to conspiracies
I have said here before that conspiracies exist, is a fact, is not a theory. Anyone who has read any history knows that to be the case. I think it also fair to say that conspiracies are invented for the most part to take money from one's fellow man and to gain power over him. In short they are invented for greed and power and tend to take away freedoms or do harm to those conspired against. Also conspiracies almost always involve money. It's the age-old story of good and evil, Satan would have men use gold to buy up armies and navies to reign with blood and horror across the earth. God would have men treat their fellowman as they would like to be treated. Since conspiracies only work under the cloak of darkness, the way to defeat them is to shine the light of truth on them.

Over the years I have read much concerning conspiracies, and have become convinced that there are clearly individuals and organizations that are working to achieve a one world government. And many of those people sincerely think it would be a good thing. However the end result would be a major loss of freedom. We know from history that too much power given to two few individuals corrupts. "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. One of the blessings of our constitution is that it recognizes man as having rights and privileges given him from God not from governments. Our government was intended to serve man not the other way around. When governments are given too much power one of the first things they do is take away our property (that would include our right to own gold).

When society's deteriorate and lose focus on the true meaning of life they become overly focused on the carnal things of the earth such as power, money and sex. It is in this environment that conspiracies proliferate. Look at the leaders of the world's nations today, who would you chose as role models for your children? I find I have to go back to our nations founders to get a better model. Because of the state in which we find ourselves, I do not think one can talk about money, gold or investing without discussing or at least entertaining the possibility of manipulation and conspiracies.

While conspiracies exist, I do not believe every time the price of gold goes down or the stock market moves up, it is because of someone manipulating it. Those who would conspire to harm their fellowman don't always succeed, in fact oftentimes their plans backfire. There is power in knowledge and power in truth and we all benefit from the many correct principles shared at this site. I know that truth will always triumph in the end and while we may go through some difficult tests, that's just to build character. Since I believe Gold is a truer and more honest form of money than our fiat currancy, I believe it too will triumph!
JA
Caught Up
Now I can go get Saturday's to do list.
YGM
USA GOLD & Farfel
MK---Thanks for the honorable mention. The most important
thing I've recieved from my presence here has been to
regain focus on the issues surrounding gold as well as learn
more about what goes on behind the scenes. Truly this
lucid group has turned my attention from that of one angry
gold miner to that of one w/ confidence in the futre of Gold
in our world. Thanks again & I'll be back when time permits.

Farfel--- That was one terrific letter to Mr. Armstrong. All the
"Short People" in "High Places" should recieve a similar
e-mail. Also - Editor WSJ & Globe & Mail. My regards to you.
YGM.
YGM
Cobra & JA
Thanks guys. I SHALL return and hopefully w/ more of the
yellow rock to make the coins you all like so much. Mayhap
a nice nugget for MK to use as a prize in one of his great
contests this fall. I truly hope EVERYONE has a great
summer and in due time the world returns to sanity.YGM
Christine
Saudi June supply cuts signal price resolve
http://www.api.org/newsroom.cgi?id=G001425
Saudi June supply cuts signal price resolve
Saudi Arabia's deep cut in sales of crude worldwide for
June show the kingdom's determination to maintain strict
export limits despite the recent rise in oil prices, Saudi crude customers said on Wednesday.

State Saudi Aramco's swingeing 35 percent sales cut
below standard contract volumes to major European
customers targets the region where Saudi crude profit
margins are at their lowest.

Saudi Arabia confirmed its intent to stop the key Atlantic
Basin market from lurching back into oversupply by cutting
export volumes to the United States by 21 percent.
USAGOLD
YGM...On Gold Nuggets
Bring us back a few of those Yukon whoppers and stay away from the bears.
Al Fulchino
Farfel
Wonderful job with the letter. There are some things in this world that cannot be stopped, despite the manipulations of some. In fact, they can only manipulate with the assistance of like minds and the passivity of others. Time will, and has always prevailed however, and soon the situation they try to push on the rest of us will
ultimately push the natural order of things such as the value of gold to an unmanagable point even for their "superior" minds. When that day comes be in a safe place, turn on your radio or tv by the pool and watch them try to
crawl under rocks and jump off ledges. Justice is always fair.
FOA
Gold Talk!
I will also have some words to add to this Forum a little later in the day. Good posts from everyone, much to read and consider. thanks FOA
turbohawg
Hey Stranger ...
... I hate to see you bail, buddy. There's much still to be written in the inflation/deflation saga. (Watch out for those inflation indicators ... they could prove to be mighty prickly.) Don't stray too far ...

back into the woodwork
Jade
J. Aron
MK-There has been a new book out reviewing the history of Goldman Sachs. There's about 30 pages devoted to J. Aron and Gold. Briefly - J. Aron had decided to sell its operations somewhere in the early 70's. They hired GS as the investment banker to handle the sale. GS went over the books and discovered that Aron was making as much profit as GS with 40% less equity. Upon this startling revelation, GS purchased Aron for themselves. At this time Aron was the only Bullion dealer in the world and basically had a monopoly. They had extensive dealings with Central Banks and the Gold mining community and claim to have invented the Gold Leasing game with the Central Banks and Mines. They were also responsible for introducing the Kruggerand to the world. Bob Rubin became responsible for bringing Aron into the GS fold and worked with the group on a daily basis for many years. So Rubin knows the inter workings of the Gold markets as well or better as anyone in the world. Over time key people from the Aron group at GS would leave and move over to other banks. Thus the spread of the Knowledge of the Gold markets into a number of banking groups. The fact remains, that GS has been the premier player in the Gold Leasing game for close to 30 years with Rubin right in the middle of this. And of course Rubin eventually rose to Vice Chairmen at GS and the rest is history. Nothing like the fox in the Henhouse.
Christine
POG
Bye YGM. Come back soon with many gold nuggets.

If POG went to $10,000 as FOA suggests, then would it not beconme virtually out of reach of most citizens, if not nations who do not now have much central bank gold. Would not those who now own most gold have greater power with gold at $10,000. Would not those who now have the majority of world gold almost have a virtual monopoly on gold, especially if they also have the power to legislate against the mines.

Jade
Farfel
Bravo--Its about time someone made the world aware of Armstrong's grand little plan.
Cavan Man
"Yield of Dreams"
Just an interesting aside......I went to a professional BB game last night. I was spending $5 for a 16 oz. can of beer and the guy in front of me spent $30 on a ballcap for his son (the cap did have Musial's name and number on it)The backdrop for all this was a lot of talk around me about the stock market and a billboard in center, right field advertising Lindner Fund's "Yield of Dreams". Perhaps there is currency in the argument for gold.
CoBra(too)
Munk - Barrick - hedges
Just a short note re hedging: As ABX is telling us they can't lose either way - PoG goin' up or down - no way, they can't lose they're hedged both ways. It's like the invention of the perpetuum mobile - it's going on forever (indexed funds? or as Chris(-tine) says, no way - you can't have both sides of the (gold?) coin at once!).
One word of caution on hedging (hate to admit not being the original author): Hedging: "An action that neutralizes what would otherwise have been a profitable position".
Take heed you sellers of tomorrows (mined or not mined - that is the eternal question) gold!
koan
comex silver stocks
My number one puzzlement is why the deficit in silver which most believe to be in the 10 to 15 million per month range is not reflected in the comex stocks. Is there no deficit? Even if there is forward selling the comex stocks seem so small that there should be some reflection. any ideas?
Farfel
Yet Another Farfel Response to Martin Armstrong (Part II)

This letter sent to Chris Powell of GATA by Martin Armstrong....

Friday, May 14, 1999

Dear Chris:

There is no interest in gold on the part of
institutional investors while coin sales due to Y2K
scares are high. I had dinner with the Royal Canadian
Mint and their fear is that sales will drop like a
stone next year, and if nothing happens, that same
supply will be dumped by the public. I suppose it is
possible; this we will have to wait and see.

I think you are missing the point about the central
banks. They are not seeking to keep gold prices down to
support their paper system. The Euro is their desired
path -- pure electronic currency. This new monetary
system is believed to once and for all destroy the
underground economy and in so doing capture their just
due in the form of taxes. They are selling their gold
because there is no way they will return to a gold
standard. Any such system would also require the
dismantling of most social programs and the left wing
will not stand for that. A gold standard is inflexible
and actually can produce deflation if the supply does
not increase in proportion to population. The gold
standard has never prevented wild swings in the economy
and on many occasions it was the cause of such swings
particularly following the California and Australian
discoveries of the past century.

The LTCM bailout was necessary not to prevent losses on
Wall Street but to prevent the meltdown of the
financial system. LTCM was the largest player in the
convergence trades that allowed the Euro to "appear" to
be working. The degree of leverage used endangered the
entire financial system and the bailout you speak of
was not actually a bailout at all. More than 60 percent
of the so-called bailout was money already owed to the
houses by LTCM. The Fed actually proposed the orderly
liquidation of LTCM rather than a 2-5-year lawsuit that
would have damaged the integrity of the marketplace.
The Fed did not put any cash in and the banks that had
lent the money ended up having to take a capital
position in place of the debt.

The English are the English. There is no collusion in
trying to help an American firm. They simply think it's
fair play to announce their intensions over a long
period of time and see their actions as market neutral.
This is contrasted to the Australians who dump
everything short-term and they tell later.

The IMF is also not a manipulation. They have lost
billions and most of their loans will never be
recovered, particularly in the case of Russia. The
nations that they have gone hat in hand begging for
more money are getting tapped out and pressure is
applied to the IMF to cough up some money of its own.
There is no reason why the IMF should even own gold any
more since there will never be a return to the gold
standard. Hence, any future loans will need to be cash
not gold.

The strong dollar depresses gold in dollars but at the
same time it lowers the cost of production in most
Third World nations, and so they are making a profit.
You are based in dollars so you see a loss. Investors
in gold outside of dollars would not share your view
and actually cheer the rise in the dollar. You, on the
other hand, hate the dollar and want to see its demise.
If that happens, your investment may increase but
others now enjoying profits will lose.

I just think that there are a lot of complex issues at
work here and to call this a conspiracy or manipulation
may sound good but it has no motive. The simple fact is
they are more interested in moving to an electronic
form of currency to increase tax collection as they see
it. They are merely getting rid of an asset they have
no use for any more. Their agenda is electronic, not a
conspiracy to depress gold for any other purpose. They
have already altered the Consumer Price Index; they do
not need to worry about gold.

All the best.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG
Princeton Economics

-----------------
May 15, 1999

Farfel Responds:


Dear Martin:


One of the major deficiencies in gold investor analysis has been the notion that Y2K alone will prove to be a
panacea for gold's malaise. As might well be expected, the US Establishment and its friendly Allies anticipated Y2k
problems...and a gold price leap occurring simultaneously with a US Dollar collapse is certainly one of the more
notable, potential Y2k crises for the US government.

So, in anticipation of investors racing to gold in '99, Wall Street has been active creating and disseminating its own
anti-gold, scare stories. They include the following: gold is not acceptable at the corner grocery store and never will
be; when Y2k proves to be a fart in the wind, gold prices will immediately collapse in January; in any case, gold
will never get off the ground this year because Switzerland, England, and the IMF are selling every gold ounce in
their possession, etc., etc. To date, Wall Street has been winning the scare war. But left-field events always have a
habit of intruding upon concerted efforts to control a commodity...and this unusal year '99 seems to hold the
potential to present a spate of left-field events ( e.g. instability in Russia, conflict with China, OPEC militancy, etc.
) I believe the more astute gold investors are increasing their gold holdings this year, less in anticipation of
specifically identified Y2k problems, and more in view of
pre-millennial "shockers."

Martin, when you speak of global electronic currency as the desired path of Western governments, then I do not
dispute the reality of that aspiration. However, it would be either disingenuous or remarkably naive to think that
such a radical new currency system can be effected in the short-term...particularly in America. Remember, Canada
and Europe long ago ( + 30 years ) adopted the metric system...yet America, despite its past stated intentions of
heading down the metric path someday, remains nowhere near such adoption. America's infrastructure is huge and
cumbersome ( some might even say "retarded" ) and the conversion to global electronic currency will not be
effected overnight. When I see the day America finally goes metric, then I will have greater faith in it's ability to
convert to a complete electronic currency. But baby steps first before the big ones!

Moreover, Martin, it is the extremely lucrative underground American economy that certainly precludes the
likelihood of an immediate global electronic currency. The extremely powerful criminal interests in America whose
influence and tentacles reach into the government itself will not readily nor happily embrace an electronic
currency...at least until they have figured out how to control it to further their own ends. There is far too much
underground cash flow essential to these mega-powerful criminal elements for them to allow anything that subverts
it. On the other hand, these same criminal elements have often used gold as a means of transaction owing to its
pandemic acceptance and laundering attributes...and there is little likelihood they will abandon their "gold reserves"
overnight. So, in the end analysis, electronic currency is a case of academic aspiration that is not likely to succeed
in the short term against the harsh realities of life.

Martin, when you state that the ( Western ) central banks are selling their gold since there is no way they will return
to a gold standard, then I partially agree. The gold standard of yore is anathema today to the major Western
governments that wish to hyper-print fiat money and control the creation of currency rather than be controlled by it.
However, therein lies the problem. Although the old gold standard often led to deflationary events, it also served to
constrain the oft excessive appetites of corporations and consumers.

In a world of ever dwindling vital commodity supply, then there must be some country-neutral "disciplinarian" that
checks governments from inflating their currencies to the Nth degree upon a mere whim. Although enhanced
computer efficiency has led to some improvements in the global commodity supply/demand equation, can
computers alone do the trick of precluding commodity inflation? When the point of maximum computer efficiency
is reached, what happens after that?

Furthermore, although American hedge funds and the IMF proved successful in trashing Asian, Russian, and Latin
American demand/competition for commodity consumption, what happens once this suppressed demand resurges?
Even worse, what happens if the demand remains suppressed, thereby increasing the frustrations of these nations?
Will wars break out along with the repudiation of US currency by those angry nations who challenge the perpetual
"demand-suppression" in their countries by the American-dominated global status quo?

Martin, I do agree with you on one thing: electronic global currency is the most sensible path for our modern,
hi-tech society...except there must be something intrinsically valuable backing the new currency ( more than the
mere good word of government ) and some means of growth constraint ( beyond the "self-discipline of
government"...a true oxymoron ) . The most sensible solution: a new form of E-GOLD, an internet hybrid of
cyberbits and real gold reserves...all transactions in cyberspace based upon real gold holdings. If a country does
not have the gold, it cannot create the cyber-money. Although such a currency system would be quite elaborate and
complex, it would certainly be no more so than the ultra-complex floating currency labryinth.

Martin, as for your assertion that the LTCM bail-out was designed to save the financial system from melt-down....I
will not get into this digression from the discussion of gold other than to say that the ultimate result of saving
LTCM is the perpetuation of the populist perception that the US government will ALWAYS intervene in the
markets to prevent any hardship on the part of investors. Given this perception, then most investors today are
fearless and have few qualms about exhausting all their savings and going far into debt for the purpose of stock
market speculation. In other words, Greenspan may have saved LTCM and its Wall Street investors for the Fall of
'98...but the hell is merely postponed until later ( this year? ) when most Americans have placed 200% of their
assets into the stock market with nobody left to buy their stocks at whatever lofty equilibrium levels exist at the
time.

Martin, when you state that the Bank of England's decision to pre-announce gold sales is simply "the English are
the English," then it is you who seems to be the true barbaric relic of our contemporary age and not gold. It is an
amusing national stereotype...but haven't you heard?
Today, English policemen carry guns instead of billy clubs...the nation is ethnically heterogeneous and no longer a
whiter shade of pale...and English good manners have been largely replaced by London neo-punk ethic and soccer
hooligan-style.

As for your comments that there is no reason for the IMF to own gold anymore since there will never be a return to
the gold standard....see my preceding paragraphs 5 and 6. However, even if what you say is true, then the IMF
best figure out how to unload its huge cache of gold WITHOUT wreaking havoc in the many gold-producing third
world nations. Simply providing IMF alms without provision of substitute industry will not go over too well in
those poorer countries. Nations do NOT appreciate being put in the role of beggars. Resulting instability would far
outweigh any benefits of from your new "enlightened," non-gold, global electronic currency.

Finally, in your final paragraph, you state that "THEY do not need to worry about gold...because THEY have
already altered the Consumer Price Index." It's funny, Martin, but for someone who resists the notion of any
conspiracy in the gold market, you have no reservations in stating that there is a conspiracy at the Consumer
Bureau of Statistics. Strange, indeed.

Martin, obviously THEY do worry about gold...day in and day out, world leaders and economic honchos step
forward with negative statements about the yellow metal. For something they do not worry about, they sure seem
determined to spin its "worthlessness," relentlessly and ad nauseum. Martin, THEY can alter the CPI all they
want...but in the end analysis, if I go to buy gas someday and it is being rationed with cars lined around the block,
then I will know what the US Dollar is truly worth, no matter how cooked the CPI might be. So will everyone
else.

Martin, do you "got gold?"


Fondly Yours,


Farfel
Christine
@Farfel--Governmental E-Gold
Suppose that one of these days POG does go to the moon, as all of the gold manipulating and shorting that some of us believe in might suggest. FOA says it will go to $10,000--but lets just say it will go somewhere in the thousands. There are those nations and internationalists who already own alot of gold, and have likely been acquiring more at firesales prices of past few years. Gold will likely become unfeasible at such prices for ordinanry citizens. We will now have gold and money controlled by an elite. And as FOA suggests, mining companies will surely give back most of their "windfall" profits via new taxes.
Peter Asher
Christine
Whatever 'value' gold trades at, when it is the basis for an "asset money' standard, the everyday transactions of individuals will still be based on willing buyer and seller relationships. Those that hold the gold before a POG explosion will reap huge profits. However, once the new 'equilibrium' has occurred, then the trade in gold will be no different in relative terms. To acquire a $10,000. oz. Will require $10,000. of earnings. People will be able to own gold as always, the difference being that a much smaller quantity will represent a particular unit of exchange.
Christine
@Peter Asher
Your comment is a good point. Is there any logic to this. Those that own alot of gold now, would they not have proportionally more at $10,000 than others going forward. I as an ordinary citizen could only buy 1 oz with $10,000, whereas now I could buy app. 30 oz.. Would being able to own proportionately alot more gold via a $10,000 re-evaluation benefit greatly those who already own large portions of world's gold, while depriving others of any chance to increase their proportion in any meaningful way. If some CB's or internationalists have concentrated their gold holdings at recent years low gold prices, then will they be in much more powerful position if POG should rise dramatically. Would a high POG as FOA suggests preclude other nations who do not now have large CB gold position from ever acquiring one. Thank you for your comments.
Peter Asher
JA
Regarding your famous quote this morning: "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely." � Frank Herbert used the Dune Trilogy to insert much philosophical comment. He took that quote a step closer, IMO, to accurate truth, by stating; "Power attracts the corruptible."

Viewed that way, we see Adolph Hitler craving and attaining power to exercise his hatred of Jews, rather then having developed the hatred due to the stimulation of Power. Likewise, by this analysis, Miloslavic strove to achieve his position partially (or totally?) driven by a hatred for the Muslim Albanians. In both examples, of course, the hatred was shared by a portion of the populace that supported them

So, to go a little further with this, we could say "The absolutely corrupt, seek absolute power." I find I am more able to comprehend the fact that these events occur, when viewed in this light.

Peter Asher
Christine
In answer to your four questions: Yes, yep, for sure, absolutely!
Usul
Liquidity
http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a2373LBY561reulb-19990513&qt=omani&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486Oman appear to be suffering from a liquidity shortage:

"MUSCAT, May 13 (Reuters)
Financial Services Co (FSC) said the decline, which had
wiped out gains made since the start of the year, was
``largely due to the continuing liquidity crunch and the
absence of buying support from the retail investors.''

...the liquidity issue seemed to be ``the overriding factor
determining the course of the market.'' "

Is this shortage of liquidity in an individual world market, away from the liquidity fountain provided by the US
Fed, an important signal for the global economy? Or is this
just an isolated instance, confined to Oman? I wonder
if any other markets are experiencing liquidity problems?
FOA: Any views?
Cavan Man
Farfel
It seems to be that most people in this country are quite accustomed to some form of electronic currency due to the widespread use of credit and debit cards. Although a global electronic currency would be a quantum leap from situation normal today, aren't we headed down that path already? Perhaps when there is some sort of disruption to commerce later this year the momentum will be slowed; Y2K will be the foil?
Richard, Oregon
How About A Smile?
What's up with the POG? POS? The markets, the world economic situation(s), the lack of world peace and abundances of pain and suffering by so many. One could get burden down with it all. I hate to see any of our great posters leave, all thoughts and ideas are educational and I must say, thought provoking, whether I agree with you or not. (I don't have to agree, there's no reason why I should! I'm free to make up my own mind.) Although, I agree whole heartedly with MK's comment: "As a result, we need to cut each other a little slack as each individual tries to focus what is, at times, a blur. We do not need to win on every point. We only need to advance our common knowledge and understandings and assess with mutual respect and understanding what each brings to this table." I told my wife last year that I believed 1999, 2000, and 2001 may/would be the most turbulent/changing times in world economics and related events in 'our life time'. Some far, I'm not even close to being wrong.

Lighten Up!
I have one of those desk calenders with dog pictures and sayings, etc., on it. Mine is on Labs cause we have a Yellow Lab. Anyhow, the one the other day had this by Dave Barry: "You can say any fool thing to a dog, and the dog will give you this look that says. "My God, you're right! I never would have thought of that!" Great outlet for talk on POG, POS, conspiracy theories, and all the other news and events of the day.
Christine
@Cavan Man--The part that is a concern is that it is not a US electronic currency
Martin Armstrong, of Princeton Economic Institute, is very influential in top circles. He is saying the goal is for an international electronic currency, like the euro. What is planned for "euroland" is eventual political union. This agenda for euroland is out in the open now, although it was not when the discussions for the euro started.

"Martin, when you speak of global electronic currency as the desired path of Western governments, then I do not
dispute the reality of that aspiration."
Aragorn III
A promise for a short post...almost kept.
I had recent conversation with an associate of many items, and more than any other, gold was held under the magnifiying glass. The view was shared that a common mistake is made as people believe that price and value are as two sides of the same coin. Be assured they are not so joined!

We see instead price as a traveller, and value is the road to his destination. As we trace the footsteps of this traveller, we see that they do not always fall upon the road. Just as nightfall, or inclement weather, or fear of ambush may turn aside our taveller, we admit that the smoothest journey is to be found upon the road as the journey must be continued. The price of gold is a wayward traveller indeed. Having also seen the modern bustle of the superhighway, this gold traveller perceives to be travelling the disparaged and desolate back road. While the journey was begun with righteous conviction and intrepid spirit, the separation and rustic surroundings makes the head uncertain even as the road ahead remains clear. As we watch this traveller, the apparent absence of other traffic makes the heart quail and knees shake for fear of rogues and highwaymen, driving him far afield at times, seeking "safety" from this "uncertain road". Experience alone shall reduce this nonsense of action, and make for the more smooth and efficient journey.

"And what of conspiracies?" I was asked.

They make good entertainment. I have paid for such stories in movies and books. While art may imitate life, and life may imitate art, the better "stories" are to be found in art.

"So you reject manipulation?"

Who am I to reject physics? If you throw the switch, does the light not illuminate? If you lift the latch, does the door not open? If you have fear of highwaymen, do you not flee the road? Manipulation is action and reaction. It is a trait unique to mankind to manipulate his environment in greater degree each day. It does not take a conspiracy to swing a hammer, to illuminate a city at night, or have an active and insecure imagination daydream of highwaymen.

"Some would say there ARE highwaymen. BOE and IMF as examples."

Then our traveller reacts as we would expect, leaving the road until the position is circumvented and his fright abated. Yet, if these highwaymen are studied on the roadside, we may readily ascertain their methods, and never know the motives. The extent of manipulation is clear; but as the author, the conspiracy is whatever you ascribe to them and their desires. Think now, do they not manipulate the traveller, while leaving the road to be? Why send a conspiracy to do a carpenter's job? The sign may surely say "detour", but the road does remain open to use. Keep your eye on the road and enjoy your journey!

The Road goes ever on and on
Down from the door where it began.
Now far ahead the Road has gone,
And I must follow, if I can,
Pursuing it with eager feet,
Until it joins some larger way
Where many paths and errands meet.
And whither then? I cannot say. . . . . . . [Tolkien]

got walking sticks?
got gold?
Cavan Man
Christine
Thank you. Yes, I would agree that is sinister indeed. By the way, thanks for the comment on my "quick and decisive" mind. You are right but alas, my wrongness is often symptomatic. I'm a little bit like Truman in that regard; always ready to make a difficult call come h### or high water. I am smiling because I finally, got gold.

Regards to all. This is a very good exchange of information, analysis and sentiment.
Peter Asher
Richard
That's gotta be one of Dave Barry's best. I'm laughing through tears. So perfectly apropos to the current Forum dialog. Superb quoting!

(Any one who's local newspaper doesn't carry Barry's column, is socialy deprived.)
Richard, Oregon
Much To Do About Nothing? I Don't Think So Tim!!
Re: Farfel (5/15/99; 11:44:10MDT - Msg ID:6181)
Yet Another Farfel Response to Martin Armstrong (Part II)
Farfel, I don't often respond to a post here because my knowledge/understanding is so limited. BUT, your second response to Martin was even better than the first. I don't know if I'm an 'astute gold investor' or not but I continue to increase more holdings because it's 'the right thing to do' in THESE times of great economic and world uncertainty. Electronic currency - now there's a setup for taxing, control, and theft like we've never known. Anyhow, I won't comment on everything you said but I believe you're right on and think this belongs in the Hall of Fame. One last thing, if it's "much to do about nothing", why would THEY talk about it sooo. . .much? (Slick Willie, Wall St, etc., etc., even Martin. Why waste the time?) Thank you for your time and thoughts.
Christine
Conspiracy theories--sincere suggestion
1. Skip over them if they annoy you
2. Start another topic--there is plenty of room for more than one topic at a time here I think
3. I always wonder if someone feels a need to criticize, other than to challenge logic or facts in a specific way, why? I have to think that people are uncomfortable with something if they are responding other than with debate.
4. Again, if comments annoy, please skip over them.
Tomcat
Factors or signals that effect the floor of the POG

As the POG drops one searched for factors that would prevent the POG from declining any further. Are there signals that tell us we are at the bottom. I would like to list a few that come to mind and perhaps others could add to the list or critique or amplify the ones I mention below:

1. When the mining production costs equal the POG. I read that Barrick can produce for under $200 but I have not confirmed this.

2. When bond rates minus lease rates get too small. I do not know this critical number would be. Perhaps someone can shed some light on this.

3. When the POG reaches the point that privite owners provide very little gold for leasing and this forces the CBs to provide it by themselves.

4. When the price drops so far, or political/financial instability is so great, that the private sector gets out of leasing again leaving the CBs to provide the gold. Another, I believe, mentioned something to the effect that the oil producers would not like the CBs to be the only providers of gold (perhaps they would have too much control at that point) and that these oil producers would buy gold directly to drive the POG up into a range where the private owners of gold would still participate.

5. Another also said, on Jan 11, 98 that "If gold drifts under 280 for any period of time, they must act to forstall a much worse outcome. That being: Oil will not allow LBMA to drive gold so low as to make the CBs the only suppliers. Oil will bid for gold and in doing so creat an "oil currency' out of it.

6. and 7. Another added these two on Dec 12, 97: "The oil states could stop buying US$ for oil and drop all paper gold for real bullion. Or, the masses could buy up all the physical."

8. When inflation is being countered by rising interest rates.

9. Open Interest ala FOA.

So, here a few for starters. The must be many more. Anyone want to add to the list?
CoBra(too)
FOMC meeting early in the week ...
In view of the startling surge of the CPI I can only repeat revives an old bankers view upon the upcoming FOMC meeting, being the Federal Reserve Board of Governors group, that "always moves the money supply the wrong way at the wrong time".
More startling - PoG didn't`move 'xept down!

While I'm at it "Manipulation"?: An overt, rampant practice prior to the creation of the SEC, which has reduced the practise to a covert, rampant one (prior and after creation of FTC). And ... a short sale used to be a sale of something you don't own, which in any other market (jurisdiction) would get you into jail, while a forward sale is a way to lock up a future loss. ... So much for hedgeing on Wall Street, a very expensive place to get mugged!
Been there ...

NORTH OF 49
Perhaps an opportunity to challange the Taskmaster!!
MK. Sir, for about seven months now, I have enjoyed this Forum of yours. It is truly my "home away from home" as you are well aware. There were some pretty elaborate "arrangements" made whilst I was offshore Russia (some of them, possibly stretching some local rules a bit) so that I could continue my gold education through the wisdom of this forum.
But, to subject now. You have challanged us all, over the course of the last few months with your "call to contests". Now I would like to challange your brain to a question that was answered to me today in the most unbelievable way. I found the answer to this question just as unbelievabe!!
Now, I might add--this may be just casual knowledge to yourself--if so, I take my helmet off to you, but I really hope you have to search the ole cobwebs--'bout time the shoe was on the other foot!!

Q: What single act caused President Roosevelt to confiscate all privately gold in 1932?

Now, no help'n out guys 'n gals.

No49
NORTH OF 49
(No Subject)
Aragorn III
Hello Christine...well met.
I fear that your comment suggesting the idea to skip over conspiracy ideas was prompted by my latest offering. Perhaps I have not been artful in my presentation, and as a result have left the wrong impression. The purpose of my message # 6191 was to clear aside any misinterpretation of my prior post that was indeed directed at conspiracies specifically. (I am grateful to Aristotle for the further articulation of those thoughts.) The pupose of this recent message was to put the focus on my view of *manipulation* as distinct from conspiracy. There should be no doubt that manipulation IS in full effect, and as result has given wide departure of price from true value--an opportunity not to be missed despite fears of the journey ahead. The Road (and value) goes ever on and on.

Peter Asher gave a good response to your $10,000 gold question in his Msg# 6183. You offered additional questions I shall attempt to address. Will those with with gold "rule the world" and what of those who have no gold on the day of $10,000 prices?

Consider upon birth, you enter the world with no money. So it is with those having large dollar accounts but no gold. They shall be "born again" and have a life of work ahead. If denominated as dollars, with $10,000 gold you can well expect wages and prices to be much higher than are typical today, and yet a year's wages in gold will never be as heavy as we find them to be today. So it is as the many travellers return to their smooth roads.

And what of nations with more or less gold? In a simple sense, these may also be thought of as big people. Please recall my brief suggestion days ago to Aristotle that the key to the workings of earthly life is calories and fuel. A big person with only gold/money will have need to spend it for what is lacking. A big person that can provide what is needed shall have no lack for money in due course. A big person that lacks any source of calories, fuel, and money--either through trade or self-production--shall not be a big person for long. Many reagions of the earth are quite uninhabitable without the workings of trade. When you leave the gaming table, you are wise to exchange your chips for real money. Tokens do not effectively plea your case or bargain well in the real world, even though they were seen to function fine while the game was on. Purchasing gold is a means of "cashing in your chips", and you move forward with the strength of your past productivity. To carry forward only chips when the game is called is likened to the prospect of starting over, but with fair wages paid for fair production. A daunting prospect for some, indeed, but not insurmountable. And world trade would be the stronger for it.

got monetary preservation?
USAGOLD
Northie....
At the risk of stepping foot in the jaws of a well-laid trap, I'll give you two:

1. So he could set the price of gold without interference from a free gold market (so he could inflate).

2. So he could stop the run on the banks by well-heeled investors going to gold (as a deflation hedge) to save their tail ends.

I would now request that my left tackle please protect my backside.

P.S. I tried to think of way to give you just one, but couldn't do it on short notice.

Christine
@ArargonIII--I am about to leave the house
I never take offense at disagreement that is presented in terms of a debate or counter idea. That is how I learn. I have never been offended by your posting. Actually, sometimes I worry that it is the other way around, that I have spoken too strongly rather than just debate.
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! The long-awaited update to THIS WEEK IN GOLD is now available!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlNewly arrived on the flying hooves of our messengers' horses, the weekly gold market commentary from George Milling-Stanley of The World Gold Council for the week May 3 - May 7, 1999 has been posted at the link above.

Let the quest for knowledge continue!
mike55
test
test
Richard, Oregon
Confiscation - FDR
NORTH OF 49 (5/15/99; 17:41:19MDT - Msg ID:6198)
Re: "What single act caused President Roosevelt to confiscate all privately (held) gold in 1932?" Since MK has answered, I thought I'd add what I found. I went to my ABCs, page 130: "In his confiscation order he (FDR) likened gold an invading army. "The private hoarding of gold and silver," said Roosevelt, "poses a grave threat to peace, equal justice, and the well-being of the United States." He referred to American citizens as "subjects of the United States" and ordered them to turn in their gold. All safety deposit boxes in the country were sealed. Trading in gold was banned. Roosevelt publicly stated that Americans returning their gold to the government were participating in an act of patriotism that would help deal with the devastating financial depression gripping the country. Privately, he knew that by confiscating gold, the government could set the value of the dollar without interference from the free gold market." [I don't think this is what you were looking for but it's interesting.]

Kinda sends a (very cold) chill up the old spine doesn't it! Got peace, equal justice, and the well-being! As Aragorn III would put it. . .get you some!
beesting
@Christine msg 6176-Subject $10,000 GOLD!
GOLD IS NICE!From msg.6176: If price of Gold went to $10,000 as FOA suggests would it not become virtually out of reach of most citizens?

Since a question was asked,here is my humble personal response.
Up until the late 1970's I always felt physical ownership of Gold was for very wealthy people only,Kings, Queens,Governments Central Banks etc.

In the 1959 or there abouts time period when Gold was fixed(in the U.S.)at $35 per ounce,I was in the military,they had the draft in those days.Take home pay for me was $80 dollars per MONTH,I also got $8 dollars overseas pay. Even if Gold ownership in the U.S. was legal in those days I didn't make enough after bills to own any.
Things have changed,in the world, and in my personal financial situation.
Private ownership of Gold coins is encouraged by most,if not all,countries of the world.
Lets examine $10,000 per ounce price of Gold with current choice of coins:
1 ounce pure Gold coin-cost $10,000 plus premium.
1/2 ounce pure Gold coin-cost $5,000 plus premium.
1/4 ounce pure Gold coin-cost $2,500 plus premium.
1/10 ounce pure Gold coin-cost $1,000 plus premium.
1/20 ounce pure Gold coin-cost $500 plus premium.

If Gold goes to $10,000 per ounce, coins with more alloy and less Gold(although it would be pure Gold.)would probably be minted.Gold is also measured in grams and grains:
1 troy ounce=31.103 grams.
1 troy ounce=480 grains.
So if my math is correct:
1/20 of an ounce=1.55515 grams or 24 grains.So lets make a coin using grains of Gold.
A coin with 2.4 grains of Gold(with Gold at $10,000)would be worth-$50 dollars plus premium.
A coin containing .24 grains(a little less than 1/4 grain)would cost(with Gold at $10,000) get this--$5 DOLLARS plus premium.To make another comparison:
Gold is about $280 dollars per ounce right now The *#*~^@* Bank of England just announced possible sale of 400 ounce bars of Gold they would cost $112,000 per bar at current prices.How many reading this are buying bars this size?FWIW........beesting
FOA
Gold!
Hello Everyone,
There are so many posters now, I no longer have the ability to reply / comment using each name. Because of my circumstance, I must read several days writings and then post! It is still very interesting to grasp the minds of so many thinkers. A true joy.

How many times have we seen this comment: "If gold went to $10,000 or $30,000 do you know what the price of hamburgers would be?" That is a good observation, but still, one taken out of context. I ask, what is the point of his statement? Does it say that it is no use to own gold if
common items are priced so high as to make the holding of gold a neutral action?

Usually, these side remarks are made with a "currency frame of mind". In other words, the person fully expects the present financial / currency system to continue to function for the duration and plans to profit from any ongoing crisis. The catch word is "profit", because this investor will "trade" the gold market, using leverage to multiply his currency holdings as the profit. Again, that mind holds that their is nothing to gain, if physical gold only maintains the loss of purchasing power during an inflation. It is at this juncture that I differ from most gold investors!

But first, a few questions / statements of mine to counter: " If hamburgers went to $100 each, for god sake, what would the price of gold be?". Or: If hyperinflation was 50%, and foreign exchange controls blocked me from buying other currencies, how would anyone possibly "afford" gold?" Or: "Gasoline just went up $.50 a gallon last month, now it's $8.00. My salary has not kept pace with this inflation, because it only doubled last year to $215,000. After taxes, I'm behind and now my broker says I should buy some gold at $6,346.00 an ounce. It's up a thousand in six months, totally unaffordable for me, an "average utility worker"!!" Or: "There is talk of rationing and bank withdrawals on a percentage basis, how can my neighbor still buy gold
with what is available, what a fool"!

The above train of thought paints a strange picture of a currency going bad, along with the human perception of that event. It is under these circumstances that our original "hamburger man" thinks he will "outsmart" the brightest paper traders on wall street. He will not have a chance! Not
to mention, he doesn't even think the system will fail in this manner. Perhaps, everyone will be getting killed while he outmaneuvers the government's new laws and regulations! Yes, they may try to seize gold and / or tax it's transactions. Or they may encourage it's use as an asset saving account However, these actions will be the "Result" of gold soaring in price, not because it's returning to $40 an ounce! Yes, the very regulatory actions most analysts exclaim as reasons not to invest in gold are truly the result of a world trying to grasp the yellow metal.

Search your own feelings and consider, If our "burger man" "REALLY" understood that physical gold could go into the thousands, would he not be buying it with both hands, regardless of any government action or price inflation offset. Killer investor traders do not walk away from
real things with a huge price dynamic on the horizon, they buy and hold forever, if necessary. But, only if they "believe in" the "dynamic" and the "real wealth payoff".

One of the strangest comments Another ever made was something to the effect of "gold is falling because so many people are buying it"! Some of you, no doubt remember it. What a ridiculous statement to consider,,,, if you are a "burger man" (or woman). He made this point some time ago without explaining clearly. Today, if you have read some of my other posts, it is becoming clear!
Truly, the reason people think gold is being manipulated in a conspiracy, is because it's price is falling while it's ownership is expanding. Usual supply and demand factors don't allow markets to react that way. "Burger people" resent this because it cuts them off from participating in this market, on the long side, using their favorite vehicle, paper leverage. They do not use leverage to short because the fundamentals say it should be going up. Indeed, today, the more the world gold market is expanded, the lower it's price. Yes, the only way to walk in these footsteps, is to buy physical gold.

The buying is not conspiratorial, and has been evident for some time. We have but to look at the massive volume on LBMA to see it. That is a fact, not something hidden away. A gentleman named "Big Trader" pointed out some time ago, that the buying would start as soon as gold fell below $360! It did and it did! Right after that, LBMA had to start announcing it's volume because it became so large. Most of you remember that day. Also, the fact that many brokers (GS) and bullion banks now guarantee the delivery of this massive new area of gold ownership (they are short), does not mean they are shrewd or smart. Or that they are "controlling" the market, it just means they are selling lower and lower. Nor does it mean that they are "profiting" from these
transactions as, to date, most of them are marked to the market, not completed or closed. Yes, some of them are concluded, but, you know and I know that these are but a tiny percentage of outstanding transactions.

If all of the "burger people" truly believe that the gold market is this short, then common reason must dictate that "the someone" is massively long?? An open fact for all to see. It is not hidden! Again, the problem with this state of affairs arises because gold is being massively brought at
lower prices, and expanding it's ownership, all the while, leverage players cannot make a dime from it! Manipulation?? NO!! Investment, done in the open by savvy, smart investors? You bet!

Now, why would major entities buy physical or buy the "short paper" of gold in a world of falling prices? It makes no sense to "burger people" because they expect gold to return to it's natural "commodity value" of say $500/ oz with the world financial system in tact. Just as soon as
the manipulation stops, that is.

My friends, what we are witnessing here is history in the making. Western investors, analysts and gold fund managers are asleep, holding gold industry securities with loses. They are waiting for "gold the commodity" to return to it's "deemed correct price", while major world entities are planning for the end of the dollar as a reserve asset. While local economist use the recent twenty eight years as a "precedent" to price gold in dollars, others use the "total history of currency failure" as the reason to buy real gold at ever lower prices. European lending of gold started as an
"inducement" for one oil producer to lower the price of oil and expand the use and value of a failing dollar. This began in earnest in the early 90s as a straight forward way to "buy" cheap oil. Then it expanded into a method of selling gold to anyone that wanted to trade dollars for it "And
Not Gun The Price"! It is painfully obvious for anyone to see, if they look closely. Gold was frozen from use when the IMF was formed and subjected the BIS into a locked dollar world. The late 1980s clearly demonstrated that no one would be allowed to exchange dollars for gold at a reasonable price. The world would use the dollar or the entire financial system would fall. Today, by effectively returning gold to currency status through multiple "gold carry" transactions, under the guise of mine forward sales and lending, the BIS has created a reserve asset base. A base that competes directly with the dollar and benefits the Euro when the dollar is "unreserved".

"Burger People" will and do find this offensive, mostly because they are not positioned for this event, nor do they believe this is happening. Events will prove that the next rise in the dollar price of gold will be from the beginning of a complete meltdown in the IMF / dollar asset world. That
rise, will most certainly not represent the "commodity value of gold", however, it will represent the "commodity value of the dollar"!

Now my friends, you know why I stand entirely in the center of the "footsteps of giants" and by reason, "what gold means to me".


Thank You FOA


USAGOLD
A Whimper, Not a Bang......
About two years ago, I had the occasion to meet with a still stalwart 82 year old, Kansas City stockbroker who had seen it all -- at least from my perspective and had finally decided to retire. He had the look of Kansas about him -- thin and leathery at 82 replete with that plains common sense I've grown to appreciate.

We met in my offices one slow summer afternoon. He had travelled west to make sure the mountains were still there (his words) and dropped by my offices while his wife browsed at the Tattered Cover Book Store across the street -- some say the best book store this side of New York (in case you need an excuse to visit). After exchanging pleasantries -- we had had several conversations over the telephone -- we settled into a conversation about markets, the subject which still engaged this man 35 years my senior and, as you already know, something which has been known to keep my interest as well. He had lived through the crash of 1929 as a youngster when many in the farm country between the mountains and the big river lost everything they had. He wasn't working then but he remembered it and it what it did to his Kansas farm family.

My intersest was in his professional life as a stockbroker so I steered the conversation in that direction without any complaint from him. He had done well enough as a broker and had put together enough money to take care of "the family" into old age. At one point in the conversation he told me had driven his Mercedes Benz to Colorado from Kansas City. It wasn't his "Mercedes". It wasn't his "Benz." It was his "Mercedes Benz" and he said those words with a certain amoumnt of reverence. As in " O lord won't you buy me a......." Well, you know the rest of that old tune. He said he bought the car over the complaint of his wife.

After, much conversation, I asked him what it was like in the early 1970s when the stock market went south. What happened? What caused it? Etc. He simply said that he and his broker buddies came into work one day and the bull market was over. Just like that. There was no rhyme or reason. No warning. No sign. It just started to go down and never came back. That was it. He said it was very bad stuff. They went from a fifty man shop to fifteen. Only the very best, himself included, survived and even then he still doesn't know how. He said it was like somebody threw a light switch. Poof. Gone.

Looking back now. What happened was oil prices started up and interest rates with them.

Is that where we are today? I don't know. I just recalled that story last week as the stock market headed south, inflation kicked up, and the stock and bond markets reacted like it was 1971 all over again. Thought the story worth repeating. Not the Great American Novel, but something worth filing for future reference. Sometimes it does end with a whimper and not a bang, as the poet says.
FOA
Comment!
beesting (5/15/99; 20:21:44MDT - Msg ID:6206)

Beesting, Excellent point!
canamami
Conference Call - Deals With Gold and Related Manipulation Issues
http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfmI have just finished listening to the taped conference call at the site to which I have linked herein. The call deals directly with a number of the issues raised in the gold-attentive internet sites in the past week - particularly gold manipulation and the alleged Goldman Sachs short position. The portions dealing directly with gold are in the first half of the call, though some issues indirectly impacting on gold are dealt with in the second half - for example, the Kosovo war and political chaos in Russia.
FOA
Question?
Richard, Oregon (5/15/99; 20:19:40MDT - Msg ID:6205)

Richard,
Why didn't the USG just revalue gold to, say $200 and allow everyone to keep their money? Your comments?? Anyone??
FOA
Comment on earlier discussion!
Barrick - hedges

One of the first signs that a new gold market was being created was when bullion banks were allowed to sell Central Bank gold "ownership invoices", for cash to the benefit of Barrick. The CBs got only a very small rate of return for this risk. The money set in a bank account and interest
was made. The new owners of the gold paid cash but let the gold set in the CB vault. All that happened was that Barrick could earn interest on it's unmined reserves and call it "the higher price they were getting for gold"! In addition, the CBs said they could roll it forward for ten years +/-,
if the price of gold rose!
Really clear eyes could see that the CBs were paying mines interest on unmined reserves if they would replace the CB real gold with mine collateral. Because the gold didn't really leave the vault, the new securities were used to match the mine future assets against the new owners of the gold!

Neat trick. After the public bought it as "the CBs earning interest on a nonpaying asset", the gates were opened. It wasn't long before gold was lent without any gold at all! No different than "fractional reserve" banking. The mines were (are) being used to expand the gold trading arena
and they don't even know what is happening. Now, as the price has fallen, all mines must earn interest on reserves, just to survive. The dollar bears are, in effect, nationalizing the mines gold reserves at ever lower prices. Tell me the CBs are dumb? ??


FOA
Comment!
USAGOLD (5/15/99; 8:41:59MDT - Msg ID:6161)

"Beesting: Thanks for interesting link. I think alot of water is going to go under the bridge beforeLondoners fold euros and stick them in their pocket. (Sorry FOA)"

Michael,
I bet you one "Paper American Dollar" that England will "pound" the door of Europe in a desperate attempt to enter! The BOE would have never bailed out some of their Bullion Banks in such an "open" action, unless they were about to split from the USA money team. Watch for the US to push for higher gold prices because the game is lost. That's why RR quit, no? GS and the LBMA are in it now! I'll bet you will refer to me as a "hamburger person" after this! We will see. thanks
canamami
Question for FOA - The End of the $US as a "Hard" Currency?
FOA,

Are you positing the eventual "end" of the $US as a "hard" currency? In other words, is it your position that there will be a disestablishment of the $US as a currency - i.e., as a store of value and a unit of exchange? If "yes", will this disestablishment pertain to the $US solely as an international reserve currency, or also as the domestic US currency, leading to the introduction of a new American currency even for domestic transactions and savings? Do you anticipate "Weimar Republic"-type hyperinflation? What are your time frames?

An interesting tidbit. There is a program called "Cities at War" on a Canadian cable network called the History Channel. In the episode on Berlin, the narrator stated that the restaurants which had anything left to sell continued to do a brisk business, even with the Russians within 35 miles. Can you imagine: Some restaurant owner hustling like crazy amid the destruction and mayhem of March 1945, for payment in Nazi Currency! I think payment in gold would have been a much better bet!!!
Aragorn III
Hello FOA...a quick note and I must depart for a brief time.
FOA (5/15/99; 21:03:47MDT - Msg ID:6211) "Why didn't the USG just revalue gold to, say $200 and allow everyone to keep their money?"

By this you might be asking a rhetorical question, but the answer may be useful to some. As time allows, I will provide a small part.
This would have have been but a patch to stop the short-term bleeding of bank runs, as a $20 gold coin could be given by the tellers for each $200 on account. But the larger problem of fractional reserve lending would have ever reintroduced this same problem of not enough real money (gold coins) to stand behind the money on account that had been created over the years. Politically, those with money in account would not be as happy as those who held coins, but as it turned out, they all lost equally, as they all lost their gold.

Also, under this proposed announcement of $200 gold, the farce would have been readily apparent for all to see. It would be as one day the official color of gold is "yellow", and by decree the next day it is "green", and perhaps after that, "blue". The term "dollar" as money may very well have been slain on the spot with such an announcement, and all focus would have been on gold weight. Prices on goods would have immediately increased by a factor of ten also to maintain the same income by gold weight. While this may not seem plausible today, we must remember that in 1933 money was understood to be gold. This focus on gold weight would have undermined the government's ability to carry forward economic management, and engage in spending programs without the requisite taxation.

I see two sustainable methods of operation for a gold standard.

The first alternative would be a fixed price of gold (fixed money, such as using monetary units of grams), while concurrently abolishing the practice of fractional reserve lending. The gram prices on goods would be flexible (up AND down) based purely on balance of supply and demand of both the product and the money. Admittedly, this would be a tough option to sell, given the popularity of having loans granted on demand, as we see with fractional lending.

The second alternative would be the establishment of an arbitrary transactional unit that can be inflated and contracted through fractional lending. Concurrently, gold is understood to be the underlying monetary asset, which is freely convertible on the open market free of hedging-type operations such as leveraged forward sales. If gold is to be sold/exchanged for the transactional units, the physical gold must truly be delivered at the time of exchange. The price of gold and all things would be seen to float based upon the supply of these transactional units.

Unfortunately, people have not been exposed to either such workable system.

got second alternative? (euro?)
FOA
Comment!
canamami (5/15/99; 21:54:44MDT - Msg ID:6214)

Hello canamami,

------------ "If "yes", will this disestablishment pertain to the $US solely as an international reserve currency, or also as the domestic US currency, leading to the introduction of a new American currency even for domestic transactions and savings?"--------------

If the reserve function of the dollar is degraded, that action will most certainly affect it's internal trading value. Inflation will rule the day as the local (internal) money is locked within it's borders with "foreign exchange controls"! Most external dollars exist in the form of interest bearing securities (US debt) and they will be handled just as the Russian debt is. No one will declare it
worthless. It will still trade on foreign markets at a discount.

-------------"Do you anticipate "Weimar Republic"-type hyperinflation? What are your time frames?----------

It has to! There is no practical use for the excess amounts or valuations of a reserve currency that has been replaced (unreserved). As I said several weeks ago, the change is starting. Yes the price of gold has fallen, but still within it's framework. Someone, here asked if the BIS would still buy in the open below $280? I think they will to protect the scale of the market. However, if the US is now actively, about to gun gold, the BIS may wait a bit. Also, If Bill Murphy of GATTA (??) really wants to get action, they should go to Switzerland and present a public appeal to the BIS. That could be all they need for a "precedent", especially if it coincides with a new US policy push!

----------An interesting tidbit. There is a program called "Cities at War" on a Canadian cable network called the History Channel. In the episode on Berlin, the narrator stated that the restaurants which had anything left to sell continued to do a brisk business, even with the Russians
within 35 miles. Can you imagine: Some restaurant owner hustling like crazy amid the destruction and mayhem of March 1945, for payment in Nazi Currency! I think payment in gold would have been a much better bet!!!-------

Good point! Add to that the present day action of citizens still using currencies like the Mexican Peso and we see how old habits lead to wealth destruction. FOA


Peter Asher
canamami
That restaurant situation is a perfect example of the function of money purely as credit. If he used those Nazi notes to stock up on food and fill the gas tank to head west, the money was still good for something. Unspent, of course, it would become worthless. Someone else might even give him a gold coin for a stack of it, if it would enable that fellow to acquire more food and gas then he could with the coin.--- Kind of a parallel to 'just in time' inventory.
mike55
#### "What Has Gold Done for Me?"#### ****5/21/99 COMEX $279.70*****
As a reader of this fine forum for several months, I have been prompted by the contest to post my thoughts on the subject. Until late last year, I had been the "typical" investor with my retirement plans firmly entrenched in equities. I am no longer typical. At the urging of my lovely wife, I began to pay attention to this thing called Y2K by reading and researching the subject. I am not an alarmist, but am taking what I feel is a balanced approach in making preparations to provide the basic necessities for my family if some difficulties do indeed materialize. If worldwide events go smoothly or not, I am learning much on this journey, especially since it has led me to gold. Through this forum and Michael's book, I have become aware of the role that gold has played over the centuries as a storehouse of wealth and as a political sword.

My preparations have led to in-depth discussions with my parents who were young children in Europe during WWII. They were lucky to escape after the war, and with a few surviving relatives, came to this country with only the shirts on their backs, a desire for freedom, and a work ethic that is in short supply today. I was also reminded of the gold my father has accumulated over the years after the war as protection from losing everything as he once has. But I digress -- suffice it to say, my parents are my role models and continue to provide the lessons and values that I apply to life, work, and raising of my family.

Our three sons, ages 16, 14, and 11 are becoming the kind of people that give us a positive outlook on the future. Through parental and spiritual guidance, they continue to grow as caring individuals who give more than they take. Of interest, as I began to learn about gold and slowly trade paper for metal, the boys expressed an interest in the noble metal also. With the modest allowances they receive for chores, they have decided completely on their own accord to visit our local coin dealer every few weeks and exchange a percentage of their allowances for silver and gold.

Through this continuing education of gold, I have come to learn much more than I was exposed to in years of graduate and post-graduate studies. By opening my eyes, ears, and mind, I have come to a greater understanding of how the world works (or is supposed to work), and seeing "the big picture".

What has gold done for me? It has given me an education and awareness of the events of the past, an understanding of the present, and a vision of confidence and security for the future. I thank all here for the the wisdom and knowledge that this forum provides.

------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding the 5/21/99 COMEX price of gold that I have placed at $279.70 per ounce, it's based on my best guess when looking at worldwide events including manipulation, Europe, Bank of England, Alan Greenspan's recent comments, the direction of the bond market, CPI "inflation" figures, and that pesky Dow bubble. Then again, these elements may not currently mean a thing to the price of gold as we've continued to witness in these turbulent economic times which defy logic.
Peter Asher
FOA
Your #6207 was beautiful. Was that your contest entry?? There were no ######, but you signed off as if it were. Just want to know what I'm up against.
FOA
Comment!
Aragorn III (5/15/99; 21:58:18MDT - Msg ID:6215)


Hello Aragorn III,
Nice answer. I hope everyone enjoyed it as I did. I know you have little time, but your responce demands a further question. Gold was money then, and the gold weight created a
problem. Then, why did the US close the gold window in 71 instead of just raising the gold price? Again, even $200 may have worked? Anyone?

FOA
Comment!
Peter Asher (5/15/99; 22:33:24MDT - Msg ID:6219)

Hello Peter,
Thanks for the consideration! No, my posts are, at best, food for thought in this changing world. As events turn, the fine writers that make this forum will grasp hold of world affairs with a writing style that shapes public opinion. This they will do using newfound "hindsight" that fresh readers will call "wisdom". I look forward to this as do all. Peter, what does gold mean to you?


Chris Powell
London Times Reports about GATA
ttp://www.egroups.com/group/gata/110.html?Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
is featured in London Sunday Times
Chris Powell
London Sunday Times Reports About GATA
12:10 a.m. Sunday, May 16, 1999

Dear Friends of GATA and Gold:

GATA hit the business page of the Sunday London
Times today, and some of the quotations about us
were favorable. This is a very encouraging development:
GATA's first break in one of the world's major
newspapers. The article follows.

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

* * *

CONSPIRACY THEORISTS PAN NET FOR GOLD

By Kirstie Hamilton
City Editor
Sunday London Times
May 15, 1999

The gold market is seething with Internet-inspired
rumours of a huge conspiracy in which some of the
world's biggest financial institutions are alleged to
be suppressing the price of gold.

Everyone from major European and American investment
banks through to the Bank of England and America's
Federal Reserve have roles to play in the story, which
at its most dramatic stretches the credulity of even
the most dedicated conspiracy theorist.

But milder versions are being taken seriously by some
of the gold business's establishment figures, including
the chairman of South Africa's second-largest gold
producer and the heads of two European gold producers.

Those allegedly involved in the plot throw up their
hands in despair at the tales being given any credence.
"This is complete baloney," said the representative of
one bank alleged to be part of the conspiracy.

The stories, which have been building over recent
months, have exploded since the Treasury announced
earlier this month that it will sell half of Britain's
gold reserves in a series of auctions.

Bill Murphy, an American Internet commentator, has even
set himself up as chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust
Committee, a pressure group calling for an
investigation into the price-fixing allegations. The
group has hired Berger & Montague, a Philadelphia law
firm that specialises in anti-trust cases.

"We are conducting an investigation into what we
believe is going on, which is manipulation of the gold
market," Murphy said. He has also been to Congress to
explain what he believes is happening.

The Treasury's decision to announce its sale programme
was the stuff of nightmares for producers hoping the
gold price might finally be starting to recover. It
sent the price tumbling by $8 to $280 an ounce.

Analysts and commentators have begun to create
elaborate theories about why the gold price has
stubbornly refused to rise despite a rise in underlying
demand. Central to these is the suggestion that a
number of big banks have huge short positions in gold,
either on their own account or on behalf of clients.
Short positions are created by selling gold into the
market in the expectation of being able to buy back
later at a lower price. While the gold price remains
low, the banks profit from their short positions.

Should the price suddenly rise, their gains quickly
become losses. At its extreme, the theory suggests that
the big investment banks may have been able to persuade
central banks around the world to help them keep the
price of gold down.

"There are parts of this conspiracy theory that I am
sure are not true," said Chris Thompson, chairman of
Gold Fields, one of South Africa's biggest gold
companies. But he said that there was a large amount of
circumstantial evidence that investment banks were
involved in a plot.

Internet gold commentators have suggested one American
bank's exposure to the gold market could be up to 1,000
tonnes -- more gold than is stored at Fort Knox.
Insiders at the bank concerned deny the position
approaches those levels, but officially the bank
declines to comment.

"The behaviour of the gold price has been very odd over
the last six months," said Peter Hambro, a member of
the Hambro banking family and owner of a gold mine in
the south of France. "In spite of reports of
substantial demand for physical gold and major economic
and political uncertainties, such as the war in Kosovo,
the gold price has not responded in the way one might
expect. "Parallel to that we have seen insistent
reports from Internet commentators of big market
operations by a few investment banks. Circumstances
support the theory that there is a cap being put on the
price."

Chris von Christierson, chairman of Rio Narcea, which
mines gold in Spain, is also concerned. "I have never
been a believer in conspiracies, but every time the
gold price is about to break out, it gets hit again,"
he said.

But some analysts dismiss the conspiracy option,
maintaining that the gold price is likely to remain
under pressure while central banks continue to offload
supplies of what they see as a poor-performing
investment.

The Treasury's gold sales announcement has attracted
criticism from a number of quarters, particularly for
the manner in which it was done. By flagging the sales
ahead of time, some critics have suggested, the Bank
and the Treasury have further depressed the price.

Even a former Bank executive has joined the chorus of
disapproval. Terry Smeeton, former head of foreign
exchange at the Bank, said the gold sales would damage
the gold market, and that he would not have undertaken
them had he still been at the Bank.

The Bank defended the sale decision, and insisted that
it had agreed with the Treasury on the policy. "This is
exactly the way the gold sales were done in the
Seventies by the IMF," said a spokesman. "We think
markets work best where they have full information."

The conspiracists hope that publicity will help to
uncover any plot to suppress the gold price. The worst-
case scenario, of course, is not so much of a giant
conspiracy but something far more miserable. Without a
conspiracy the gold producers might have to face the
unthinkable: has gold lost its shine forever?

-END-

Christine
@Beesting
I have not done a good job of verbalizing my thoughts, but also it is a new idea that I am developing, and have not yet totally thought it through. When gold is revalued, it will drastically change the relationship between those who already have a sizeable reserve versus those who have little or none. Those who have acquired sizable reserves at recent bargain prices will find their holdings hugely inflated once gold is revalued. Those who don't have gold yet will find it costing vastly more to acquire even a small amount once gold is revalued. Yes, individuals could still purchase a very tiny amount of gold. But individuals will be buying a substance that the government (assuming they have maintained or even increased gold reserves) would have proportionately much more control over than now. They still have the same amount or more, but once gold is higher, we are buying much less, owning much less. Other countries would be in the same situation. Countries without many gold reserves as yet would be hard pressed to compete for gold at $10,000 oz going forward. If gold is held tightly now in fewer hands than ever before, once the price rises, those few hands will have more power than ever before to control the gold market. As FOA suggests, those nations that have gold in the ground will much more tightly regulate it and tax it, thereby more closely setting who can buy new gold and at what price. Likewise, while some trade items will rise with the price of gold, many trade items will not rise even close to proportionately will gold. Likely Microsoft will have to trade many more multiples of Windows to equal one oz of gold than at present. It is the probable concentration of gold ownership in this era of low gold prices that will alter the dynamics of gold going forward, creating a more monopolistic acting market. Feedback welcomed.
NORTH OF 49
Roosevelts Gold confiscation
MK, sorry, I really wasn't tyring to set anybody up--especially you, but this bit in information seemed so wierd, that I thought I would throw it out to the forum, and while I was at it, have a real heavyweight take a swing at it in the process.
Richard, yours and Mk's reply are both well thought out responses, and I really hope I haven't dug myself a hole in bringing this up, but here is how this information came to me.
Within our family, we have a lass who is just finishing her degree in forensic science. To me, a rather ghoulish goal, however, to each their own. Yesterday, while "cramming" for a final, she asked me who Charles Lindberg was. I did my best to explain the wonder of the three engine "Spirit of St. Louis" and it's pilot making the 33 hour non-stop trans-atlantic flight and so on and so on. Upon my interest why that had anything to do with forensic pathology, she said --and I quote from her resourse:

"On March 1, 1932 an unknown person kidnapped Charles Lindbergs' son from their residence in Hopewell NJ.
A ransom of $50,000 was paid in gold certificates.
This excuse was used by President Roosevelt to recall all gold certificates everywhere in the United States on punishment of ten year jail sentence, precluding any chance of the ransom being converted to cash.

Oh what conspiracy hath necessity wrought."

Now, I'm sure that this single event had a role to play in this infamous event, albiet maybe even only a minor one, but given the mundane events that usually fuel such occurances, this I'm sure, is the most unusual.

No49
Tomcat
Here, Here! A Toast to FOA and ANOTHER!

Sirs,

Because I am fairly new to this round-table I have been doing my homework by reading both of your posts in the archives. One thing that stands out from both of your posts is your vast knowledge combined with your sensitivity and caring for us at this round-table.

It is very clear the you are both gentlemen of stature and that, if judged by common values, it is clear that you don't really need to be here. Nevertheless, you return, and take the time to guide so many of us through the basics..

In struggling through your old posts I retain a sense of privilege that is hard to explain. Then, while reading a post by Aristotle, I realized that it was the privilege of being educated as part of this round-table.

I, like many, have made many compromises in my life. But, here, at this round-table I have recovered my sense of honesty and honor. I have witnessed the power of respect, tolerance and deference. An somehow, FOA and ANOTHER, you are the epitome of the the integrity of this fine group.

Whenever I read, "Gold, get you some" I also think of the gold that each of us has recieved by being part of this fine group.

And so, kind Sirs, I raise my goblet to your good health and fulfillment. May life return to you all that you have given.

Christine
@FOA--It is unlikely that Barrick Gold is some passive foil of the BIS
in this currency change. With board of directors like George Bush and Brian Mulrooney, Barrick has been a key tool manipulated by US. Cover your ears, conspiracy dislikers, but my guess is that at some point as gold soars, the US will come out with a new gold-linked currency similar to the euro. Still keep you ears covered--I also suspect that Britain is lowering the pound value to join the dollar, not the euro.
Peter Asher
North of 49
The ransom angle to the gold recall is very intriguing. What I find scary, (or maybe it's just part of getting older) is that someone at college level doesn't know who Lindy was. I don't mean to insult your relative, I mean to insult the school systems. I might have a distorted viewpoint on the importance of the event, having been an aviation nut in my youth. In the few years between the closing of Roosevelt field and its development into a race track and shopping center we used it for free flight model flying. It was a kick to be launching from the same runway that "The Spirit of St. Louis" took of from. BTW, the Ford Tri-motor was a famous aircraft of that day, but the Spirit was a single engine craft. My Dad said that before Lindberg's flight, the general public mostly ignored aviation. Then suddenly it was the major wave of the future.

Just like Gold at this time!!

Speaking of FDR and conspiracies; supposedly he and his cronies knew about Pearl Harbor's impeding attack, but felt we needed a war to kickstart the economy.
Gandalf the White
Christine's Barrick comments
Not to be negative Christine, but the two top political figures that you reference are only on Barrick's International Advisory Board, and NOT on the company's Board of Directors. BTW, I work with a company that is an International Advisor to Barrick also, and I have not subversive conspirices underway. But, please do not let this stop you from expressing any of your thoughts, as we can all separate the wheat from the chaff.
<;-)
The Flying Scotsman
Goldman Sachs, 1000 tonne short position

To one and all,

What evidence is there to the stated short position held by Goldman Sachs?

Are there any facts, or is it speculation on an ORC deal ?

JA commented that a series of shorts may have been rolled over into Goldman Sachs fro LTCM and other entities.

If one looks at the Australian Gold Index graph for the period September 98 to now, it is evident that three gold breakouts have been defused: firstly corresponding with the LTCM bailout, secondly corresponding with the rise in the oil price and the start of the Kosovo war, and thirdly with the announced BOE proposed sales to the "Chaps".

Clearly if the 1000 tonne gold short position of GS is verified, it is the key to a further gold breakout. Additionally, it may have implications concerning any declared positions prior to the GS float.

Does anyone have any facts ?

The Flying Scotsman
Goldman Sachs, 1000 tonne short position

To one and all,

What evidence is there to the stated short position held by Goldman Sachs?

Are there any facts, or is it speculation on an OTC deal ?

JA commented that a series of shorts may have been rolled over into Goldman Sachs from LTCM and other entities.

If one looks at the Australian Gold Index graph for the period September 98 to now, it is evident that three gold breakouts have been defused: firstly corresponding with the LTCM bailout, secondly corresponding with the rise in the oil price and the start of the Kosovo war, and thirdly with the announced BOE proposed sales to the "Chaps".

Clearly if the 1000 tonne gold short position of GS is verified, it is the key to a further gold breakout. Additionally, it may have implications concerning any declared positions prior to the GS float.

Does anyone have any facts ?

Peter Asher
#### Thoughts, Friends and Heirlooms.####
Two years ago, having received repetitive gloom and doom letters from The Wall St. Underground,
we subscribed, and after assimilating all of Nick Guardios viewpoints, Robin made our first gold purchase. As I recall, spot was about $345 and the Eagles were $352. I, right away began contemplating the profit to be made when gold recovered from it's 'depressed' price. She, on the other hand, said "I didn't buy this gold to sell it, I bought it to keep it". Wise lady, saw in an eye blink what I needed months of Forum discussion to figure out.

At that time the only thing I used the Internet for was weather forecasts and market graphs. Robin had found CPM in her gold research and told me they had a daily analysis and commentary. So I began to follow Michael's thoughts and philosophy, and became a regular reader. When the Forum was launched, I followed that also, and then the contests started. I had been writing scraps of economic philosophy for decades, without anyone to discuss the subject with that could give me any feedback. Well, Michael made it seem so safe to communicate that I took the plunge and here we are.

November was a quiet month, I believe there were at one point, three half days in a row with only a quickie from Steve to read. But something got going during the second contest. Many people responded to other peoples posts and we evolved from a sounding board to a group. By the time the third contest was over, it was a group of friends.

I can think of many analogies to describe this evolution from individual posters to our chosen title of "Knights of the Round Table", but what I'm focused on is a concept of electric current, generated by many dynamos, feeding into a common conduit and building a voltage far greater than the sum of it's parts.

Thoughts agreed with and thoughts challenged, forge a monument of knowledge here, and it is a golden one at that. This is what I first thought off when asked, "What does gold mean to you?"

I know many posters have purchased gold at much higher prices and have lamented their 'loss in value'. At first, I felt the same when I saw a 15% drop in the price of our Eagles. But something changed recently. I had seen Gold as something to buy low and sell high, and a way of acquiring a cash flow in the event of a belly up economy leaving us with no clients to design and build for. Not that the goal has anything wrong with it, but it is a small hill of reality to climb, and from the top there is a broader view.

Gold may go up or down in price, but in a conceptual sense, it's value is constant. When it's price is up there is a sense of increased wealth. When it's price is down there is the opportunity to acquire more. Regardless of it's price in any given currency, gold remains the means to store the fruits of ones labors until such time as they, or their children ,or their children's children wish to exchange for the product of others. Fiat money is 'credit' money, Gold is 'asset' money. Earned money, spent on gold, becomes only then, unspent. It is preserved. Gold is the money against which all other monies are measured.

Over the centuries, families have had heirlooms that are handed down from one generation to another. Whether they be homesteads, furnishings, or jewelry, they are not things passed on to be sold. Circumstances may dictate otherwise, but a great sense of loss occurs when that happens. I see gold even more so in this role. It is not taxed away, nor disintegrated by the elements and it cries out "Wither thou goest I will go." When one holds gold as an heirloom, one always has --- something.


The beauty of holding gold in this way, is that the changing price of gold does not disturb ones thoughts or dreams. Indeed, the current situation becomes one of pleasurable excitement as this ultimate of assets becomes even more obtainable. The wisest of men will be besieging the sources of gold all the more as the price declines.

This is what Gold has come to mean to me. And, it was not my thoughts alone that led to this meaning. Thank you Michael, Aragorn, Aristotle, FOA and Another, and all the rest.

Sincerely, Peter

Tomcat
An article on how Wall Street firms make money with Hedge Funds
http://www.forbes-global.com/forbesglobal/98/1228/0120032a.htm
This is a great primer article on how Wall Street firms like Goldmand and Sachs make money with their Hedge Fund clients. An explaination of how 39:1 leveraging is done.
The Invisible Hand
Sunday Times + FT = proof???

Apparently, the week-end supplement to the Financial Times (FT) is not available on-line.

However, while arguing
in his weekly "The long view" column of the May 15, 1999 FT, that share watchers should take a tip from the fine art market
("Twelve years ago, a Van Gogh went under the hammer for $ 40m to a Japanese buyer. This week it was a Cezanne still life for $ 60.5m),
Barry Riley writes that:
"Nobody can be sure what technical distortions now exist in the markets, but the vast growth of securities-related lending in recent years has given no comfort. Then there are the "YEN CARRY" TRADES (capitals by the Invisible Hand) which have expanded again recently as Japanese short-term interest rates have slipped towards zero but dollar bond yields have risen."

It was in The Sting that I read that the two carry trades going on were the yen carry trade and the gold carry trade.
Tomcat
The Flying Scotsman and your request for facts
http://www.sec.gov/news/testmony/tsty1498.htm
I cannot provide any facts about the GS rumor on thier short position but here is a factual Congression Testimony from 1998 on LTCM and how LTCM might have have been leveraging at up to 50 to 1. Particularly interesting is reading about the reluctance of the SEC to investigate the entire hedge fund area. The SEC take on LTCM has been that it was a unique aberation in a sea of sanity. Sure! Got gold?
canamami
The Stranger - Your Contribution is Valuable - Stick Around!
The Stranger,

Your clarity of expression and lucidity of thought, and sense of camaraderie, are all greatly valued. If time constraints are weighing upon you, perhaps a reduced number of posts, or shorter posts, constitute possible solutions, rather than a complete withdrawl?

Good luck, regardless of your decision.
canamami
FOA - Thank You for Reply in Post# 6216
FOA,

Thank you for the above post, which greatly clarified for me your view of the future.
USAGOLD
LAST DAY OF CONTEST....GET IT ON THE BOARD TODAY AND CONTEMPLATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A VISIT FROM AN ANGEL
Today's the last day of the contest. A little subdued for this group this time around. Is everyone waiting to see what everyone else is going to say? Oh the gamesmanship, my fellow knights and ladies.........A delight to know you take this seriously. As well you should. This lucky golden Angel awaits a home.
-----------

Come gather round this table my friends
And let us enter into a posting contest.
It has been more than a month
Since we so engaged ourselves
But the wheel has turned again
And we find ourselves at another crossroads.
Through these last few months
There is much that we have learned from each other.
Much that we have learned of gold
And the international economy.
Now we find ourselves under attack again
The golden ring snatched from our grasp.
Which brings me to why I ask you to gather here
through this weekend with Spring comforting the once cold land.
To answer this question from the heart (and enobled mind):
What has gold done for me?
These profits are not always of the material sort.
And the comforts not always market related.
The price stays rangebound.
Yet we return to this noble table night after night --
Week after week.
Why?
What is the hold this enchanting yellow metal has on us?

--------

The contest will go through the weekend, til the clock in the mountains strikes midnight on Sunday, May 16.
The prize
will be the beautiful and lucky French Angel weighing .1867 pure gold ounces. It is a fitting prize indeed since
it is the
angel that inspired the French constitution and bears the inscription "Liberte Equalite Fraternite. It is said that
an early
version of this lucky lady accompanied Napolean in all his battles until he lost it -- the day before Waterloo.
Two silvers
will be awarded the runners-up. The runner up posts can be off-subject this time, but if they are the post must
encompass at least one of the Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse -- Y2K, Overvalued Stocks, the Asian
Contagion, Euro
Introduction and now Rising Oil.

------

An additional 1/10 ounce Austrian Philharmonic will be awarded the poster who can come closest to guessing
the
closing price of gold on the COMEX on Friday, May 21,1999 the June contract. The reasons why must
accompany the
post and be of at least 30 words.

I would ask that the gold guesses are in the subject box surrounded by stars*****.

The "What Has Gold Done for Me" posts must be identified in the subject box with number signs #####.
Each poster
get's one shot at the big prize so make it good.

Good luck, fellow knights and ladies. May the best post win.
Christine
Gold monopolization
Too many entities value gold for it to be
demonetized, although central bankers would be motivated to do so if they could. The best the internationalists can do is increase a monopolistic hold on gold, like DeBeers does with diamonds. FOA is probably correct in his statement that certain oil states have been holding a gold card over the
internationalists' heads for quite a long time.
USAGOLD
Comments/Responses
FOA....I take the bet, my good friend. Do I get odds? I've got another one for you, FOA. I think that Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown may have exposed the British pound to a speculative attack much like what Malaysia experienced a few years ago. The Asian contagion in Britain? Too far out to comtemplate? Maybe not. Remember Soros.

Northie and Peter...I hadn't heard that story on the connection between gold, Roosevelt's confiscation and the Lindbergh kinapping. When you read the popular history from that era, it is amazing how the Lindbergh kidnapping captured the public imagination. Leave it to a politician to devise a way to capitalize on a citizen's difficulty ( and a national hero's at that) and advance a hidden agenda. At the time, the Roosevelt ploy probably did not seem as absurd to the ordinary citizen as it does now.

Flying Scotsman...Welcome to the Table Round. Unfortunately, the otc derivatives market is a closed book, so we are not going to find out whether or not Goldman is short 1000 tons of gold, unless they admit it. If I get your drift, I would say too that it would be unusual for the Bank of England to bail out an American firm -- even if it had ties to the current British government. Reason: Those doing the bailing still have to answer to a British constituency and unless the Tories are asleep at the wheel, it's going to get out if they did. Already opposition to the BOE maneuver is surfacing and gaining pace in the House of Commons.

Having said that, I still believe that somebody's getting bailed out in Britain and with gold not printing press money. This is an interesting development that shows that the gold carry trade game might force the central bank role as lender of last resort to remain what it is, but also to take on a wholly new role -- as the gold source of last resort. Any central bank worth its salt is going to want its gold back at some point, especially if we begin to see cracks in the dollar system. Most central banks do get their gold back at some point, so a certain amount of the leasing/carry trade is a zero-sum proposition with respect to the supply/demand table. The Vatican, for example, insists that its gold be returned on Christmans Eve each year and that's why if you check the lease rate graphs, you will see a spike at the end of most years. Some banks though roll the notes over -- a practice no good banker would continue ad infinitum. There is always a day of reckoning when the gold will have to be paid back.

The pressure to make good falls on bullion banks in this regard as signed counterparties gauranteeing the trades. It is with them that you will find your bailout candidates. Royal Oak is a recent example of what happens when a gold loan goes bad (albeit a small example). The matter is in bankruptcy court and the counterparty will get back pennies on the dollar. The counter-party -- Scotia Mocatta -- must make good to the central bank making them, like any short, a buyer either now or later. My guess is that a large number of unfulfilled trades hangs like an oppressive fog over London-town, and some counterparty(ies) are on the verge of panic.

Chris Powell....Thanks for keeping us abreast the situation with GATA. I thought the London Sunday Times article a good thing. Some heavy guns were rolled in from our side -- a strong article that I am sure the public relations people working for GATA can put to good use. The readers will take with them a sense that things are not what they seem in the gold market. This will work to our advantage in the long run. The article was a major ice breaker. Congratulations.

Peter Asher....Thank you for your kind words about the FORUM -- words from a highly respected member of the Table Round. Robin has a good "right" brain. And you see gold for the life companion it is. Hey, Peter, between Robin and your gold portfolio you have all a man could possibly need, but somehow I think you are the type who will seek more from this secure base. There is no hope for the satisfied man (or woman). Thanks again for being here.

Richard of Oregon...Thank for the equanimity, calm and wisdom that your presence brings to this Table Round.

More later...time allowing.
Chris Powell
NY POST'S DIZARD ON GOLD CONSPIRACY, AND GATA'S REPLY
NY POST'S JOHN DIZARD
ON GOLD AND CONSPIRACY.
AND A REPLY FROM GATA

http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/111.html?
Chris Powell
NY POST'S DIZARD ON GOLD CONSPIRACY, AND GATA'S REPLY
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/111.html?John Dizard addresses a conspiracy against gold, and GATA replies.
Xavier
Gold and the Chinese Language
Hello All!
Can anyone enlighten me about Gold in the Indian languages/culture in a similar way? ( or Arabic? )

The Chinese Mandarin word for Gold is "jin". A Chinese fellow in Shanghai once told me that "jin" is the ancient derivative of the english word "gold". Probably communist historical rewriting, but I listened with interest: "Jin" he said, became "kim" out west in Arabic Xinjiang province, "chem", "alchem" further west in the middle east and Ancient Greece. Didn't understand his jump from chem to gold, and he was furiouswhen I conveyed my doubts.
The concept of "gold" is forever embedded in Chinese culture.
The chinese character "jin", while literally meaning the Au Gold, has a second meaning as "money". Most financial words such as "capital", "deposit", "reserve" and thousands of others, all end in the character "jin". "Relief Fund" ( jiu-ji-jin ) , for example, literally means "help-cross river-gold". Another secondary meaning is "metal".
xian-jin cash ( "ready-gold" )
jin-qian money ( "gold-money" - means any currency, though )
jin-rong finance ( "gold-fusion" )
jin-shu metal ( "gold-catagory" )
jin-fa blond ( "gold-hair" - Vikings are walking money bags! )
mei-jin $US Dollar ( "America-gold, or even more literally "beautiful-gold" - America is "Mei-guo", literally "beautiful-country" )
bai-jin Platinum ( "white-gold" )
Walk down any Chinese street, and one can see the word for gold everywhere, whether it be a price-board, a hardware store ( "big-five-gold-shop" ) or a restaraunt or hotel called "Golden Lotus/Pavilion/Pagoda etc".
The character for Au also appears as a "radical" in other characters. ( Chinese characters can be made up of one to several picture-particles called radicals - e.g the characters for boy ( zi ) plus girl ( nu ) when put together make the word "hao", meaning "good" ) .
All the Characters on the Periodic table for example either contain the radicals "qi" or "jin", lit. "air" or "gold". Sure, here it means "metal", but any China man who looks at such a character gets the visual symbolic meaning of gold. The names for metal objects, like nails and spoons, contain the golden radical.
Anyone read the survey that asked chinese what most they wanted to buy if they could afford it? Gold came second or third after a washing machine.
FOA
Comments!
Christine (5/16/99; 0:50:52MDT - Msg ID:6227)
@FOA--It is unlikely that Barrick Gold is some passive foil of the BIS in this currency change. With board of directors like George Bush and Brian Mulrooney, Barrick has been a key tool manipulated by US. Cover your ears, conspiracy dislikers, but my guess is that at some point as gold soars, the US will come out with a new gold-linked currency similar to the euro. Still keep you ears covered--I also suspect that Britain is lowering the pound value to join the dollar, not the euro.

Christine,
Why would anyone conclude that Barrick was a "passive foil" of the BIS? At the time, they made a smart, innovative move that allowed them to earn interest in unmined reserves. Why would they want to be part of a grand expansion of gold ownership that drives gold lower to achieve that end? These people are miners, not goldbugs. The bottom line is all that counts, no matter who is on the board of directors. Gandalf the White is correct, in that the big names are on the "international" Advisory Board. That position is used to open locked doors for new projects, not plan strategy to counter declines in gold prices.

Barrick is only interested in the broad ownership of gold if it increases it's price. Had they understood the process, as you point out that they must have, leasing gold would never been part of the plan. They didn't need to, for their mines operate at a very low cost. The stock price fell, anyway, so what good did the return do for the shareholders? The precarious position of their portfolio, along with it's risk is now well understood! They, like everyone else, planed for gold to fluctuate in a range of "appropriate commodity value" and saw an opportunity to earn interest on ore reserves during what was perceived as a "lower price period". We are out of that range now and on the verge of blasting through to the other limit.

What of their exposure? It was never done before on this scale, but that is only because the CBs never had a reason to lend gold for almost zero return. I am taken by the naivety of the public and the boards of these companies. It shows the extent that greed holds when no one asked why the CBs were suddenly giving away gold to lend. Remember that interest rates were much higher when all of this lending started. That comparison makes the return discrepancy even
more obvious.

As far as your new gold backed currency for the US? Just how do you expect it to trade along side it's current unbacked unit? As much as the world has power struggles, there are "rules of engagement" that every must deploy under. For the US to issue a new currency, the old one
would have become completely worthless! NO? Comments?


FOA
Reply!
Tomcat (5/15/99; 23:42:09MDT - Msg ID:6226)

Sir, I thank you for your thoughts and consideration. Just as the new US movie Star Wars is about to play, the "Gold Story" is about to play out in "real life" fashion. It will contain more interesting "special effects" than the film. The game goes on! FOA
FOA
Comment
Xavier (5/16/99; 12:44:48MDT - Msg ID:6243)
Gold and the Chinese Language

Hello Xavier,
Thanks for the details. We should all learn about gold through Chinese eyes. They will be major players in the Euro transition. For then, trade with the US is a problem necessity, because the IMF / dollar does not allow for gold as an "ASSET IN TRADE". To this end, Europe is doing a fine job of playing the "China Card".
Are you sir, Chinese in mind?
Christine
@FOA--new US gold-linked currency, Barrick Gold
Hello FOA.
How would a new US currency be introduced? Just like the euro was introduced.

IMHO, you underestimate George Bush, Brian Mulrooney, who they are, and why they would be on any part of a gold mining company board. Certainly, if the BIS is, as you say, capable of grand schemes, so are US powers here. However, as I continue to say, it is one grand scheme; it is not BIS versus IMF.
FOA