USAGOLD Discussion - May 2000

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Leland
(05/01/2000; 01:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 29659)
Scott Burns, THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Visits With David Tice
http://dallasnews.com/business/columnists/71472_burns_30bus.AR.html"Most investors don't see the possibility of a bear
market, he explained, because most investors have
never experienced one."View Yesterday's Discussion.

Leland
(05/01/2000; 01:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 29660)
Scott Burns' Visit With Chris Sanders
http://www.scottburns.com/000418TU.htm"Over a period of two hours, Mr.
Sanders carefully laid out an interpretation of the U.S.
economy that isn't popular and that we seldom hear.
It's one in which others look at our expanding private
debt, rising stock prices, and our massive trade deficit
and conclude that trouble is looming."
Knallgold
(05/01/2000; 03:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 29661)
Free Gold
Reading YGM's name here again, reminded me of the "June rumour" of last year,because YGM brought it up first in the Gold forums;though away of the date,that was the post of the year IMHO!(Gambler delayed it to the 12.July,but the ECB "shot" it then at the end of September.)

BUT:the original "rumour" was that the ECB wants to free Gold.And the Washington Agreement was only about the curtailment of Gold activities!And, if I remember it correctly, YGM told us that the ECB postponed the "June free Gold" initially to 2000,then back again to 1999.

What now , if it has been postponed again?And the June rumour is still "in work",to free Gold in June 2000?FOA gave hints that the ECB might consider another announcement ala WA if necessary (including recently some strange "very soon" remarks).And the free physical Gold market has still to be announced.CB's hate disorderly markets'so they do it in little steps,"controlled burn"(FOA).
And the Swiss "start" to sell in May(!)and secures the Gold loans of the ECB (Howe).The June contract is also the heaviest loaded with options,40% (?) of all contracts(Don_L.),if they can expire worthless,much pain is reduced for the writers.Unless the ECB plans an unfriendly attack,the deathblow for the $papergoldmarkets.

YGM,any updates on the June rumour?
Knallgold
(05/01/2000; 04:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 29662)
Free Gold,further...
So the WA was only a warning shot.And they couldn't go further yet(to a free physical market) as their physical holdings were still loaned out.And the Swiss Gold is the main and largest part of the WA with which they intended to secure their loans.The legal stuff on this Swiss Gold was long unclear,the vote for the new Swiss constitution April(?) 99 opened the door,but the required legislation was still pending.And this takes time in Switzerland'so they risked only the WA in September 99.December last year,the parliament approved finally the legislation,and the dead line for the referendum ended 20.April,the law comes into force today,Labor Day.
Just thinking loud...
ss of nep
(05/01/2000; 05:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 29663)
HI - HAT (4/29/2000; 18:37:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29597)
Cavan Man Peter Asher Stranger The Road- - - - -
HI - HAT (4/29/2000; 18:37:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29597)
Cavan Man Peter Asher Stranger The Road
At this point in the game, Capitolism verses Socialism is a semantic charade. The ruling operative forces have propagandized their respective countries masses of people into systems of "lawfully" mandated proceedures of wealth extraction. We are the slaves of the system. We are the systems property. The system will determine whats fair and reasonable for you to live on of the fruits of your labor after their take.

The road has arrived at Clintons and Blairs, "Third Way". The third way, is the fruition of Fabianism, which stipped of platitudes is really just a kinder, gentler Fascism.

It is immoral for the Thugs to take at gunpoint under the force of law the earnings of labor that has not been contractualy agreed too.

- - - - - -

I've only just been reading the posts of the last few days
and would like to comment on the one above.

- - - - - -

The Hegelian Dialectic...

Thesis : Capitalism

Antithesis : Communism

Synthesis : Fascism - Is to be the result of the Dialectic process.

- - - - - -

Capitalism and Communism ( niether of which have ever existed in pure( idealistic ) form ) were created to oppose one another.

- - - - - -

The Dialectic - it is everywhere.

And has been around longer then it might be thought, for example, consider the Council at Nicea approx. 325 AD.

- - - - - -






Henri
(05/01/2000; 07:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 29664)
Knallgold Post #29641
Where did you access a chart for BIZ?
USAGOLD
(05/01/2000; 08:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 29665)
Today's Report: Quiet Start to What Could Be Interestingn Week
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/1/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
274.10
-.60
Silver May Comex
5.03
+.01
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
96~22
+0~04
Dollar Index June NYBOT
110.06
+0.35

Market Report (5/1/00): Gold was off marginally this morning awaiting word on how the
Swiss sales would actually be handled. Though within the guidelines of the Washington
Agreement -- which would keep this year's tranche on the low end -- dealers would still rather pay
a few dollars less for the metal to be released if at all possible, so much of today's buying has
remained on the sidelines. The Asian markets were described by Bridge News as "sluggish" with
some light short covering on dips. London is closed for the May Day holiday. Japan is celebrating
Golden Days so much of today's action will be centered in New York. The dollar started the day
up slightly against the euro, Swissie, and yen. No one knows at the moment the full effects on the
markets of George Soros' decision to switch to a "less risky" investment style and restructure his
hedge fund operations. His hedge funds have lost roughly 20% on some big bets in technology
stocks that went sour. This week we have Leading Indicators,the Beige Book on Wednesday and
the Unemployment numbers on Friday. The Fed Open Market Committee meets on the 16th.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.
Golden Boy
(05/01/2000; 09:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 29666)
Cambior to be Taken Over
Rumor has it from credible sources that Teck is close to buying Cambior. Taking a look at Cambior's trading patterns last week confirms there's a potential buyer. On Tuesday and Thursday, somebody manipulated Cambior's share price down about $0.08 both days in the last minute. It was the same brokerage firm invloved both times and that brokerage firm was E*trade. E*trade is known for being the firm that companies go to when they don't want to be recognized in the market, because the market believe it is individuals only that trade through E*trade. The two companies would make a very good fit since Teck is a gold company with other base metal assets. The Niobec mine is owned 50%-50% between Teck and Cambior and is valued at roughly $100 million. Cambior's hedge book fits perfectly into Teck's existing hedge position. Cambior's share price is down only because of the debt it has to pay off by June 30 and December 30. Cambior owes $70 million by June and Roughly another $100 million by December. Teck will have no problem making these payments or refinancing the debt. Cambior just recently wrote-down all of their assets to market levels and their book value after the write-downs is $4.00 CDN. This stock is exceptionally cheap and they produce over 600,000 ounces of gold per year. Any mid-size gold producer with a good balance sheet would love to buy this company. Other companies in the running for Cambior are rumored to be Agnico-Eagle(their LaRonde mine is very close to Cambior's Doyon mine)and Battle Mountain(they are looking for long life assets)
Knallgold
(05/01/2000; 09:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 29667)
Henri
http://www.swissquote.com/

On the BIZ stock, click on "historical" and it shows you a 1 year chart.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 11:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 29668)
Golden Boy
You may be on to something...noticed the accumulation pattern last week. A buyout is Cambior's only hope...what a shame.
JT
(05/01/2000; 12:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 29669)
Test
Test
TownCrier
(05/01/2000; 12:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 29670)
HEADLINE: Germany's Schlecht Says ECB Will Intervene If Euro Hits $0.90
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=AOQwF5xQ6R2VybWFuIn this person's opinion, that remains to be seen...meaning, I'll believe it when I see it. Given ample demonstration of ECB policy/philosophy, I would be surprised to see any "intervention" which took the form of direct FOREX maneuvers. I would look for something more subtle and meaningful. Forex intervention is for chumps...unless the objective is to unload any unwanted foreign exchange reserves. But that is not the purpose of this post. This is...

The Bloomberg reporter offered this comment:
"Part of the reason for the euro's decline is that its exchange value was set too high when the currency was born in January 1999...The euro, which has lost more than one-fifth of its value since its debut 14 months ago, earlier this week plunged to a record-low of 90.33 U.S. cents."

Of specific note is this phrase that the euro "has lost more than one-fifth of its value" to about 90 cents (U.S.).

Think for a moment about "value". That Bloomberg reporter is implying that something only has meaningful measurable value in terms of its "price" in U.S. dollars. Does anyone think for a minute that the citizens using the euro have lost more than 20% of their ability to entertain friends in a local tavern or restaurant, to fill their grocery bags, or to build a new house?

As a whole, running a trade surplus ensures that eurolanders are probably more inclined to be buying beers and sandwiches with their euros rather than buying dollars. So why all the media fuss over the external exchange rate against dollars as though it were the only true measure and meaning of "value"? If you can't decipher for yourself what is real, you are doomed to be forever led around by the hand at the mercy of others.

Right now, the ECB's biggest problem, as I see it, is one of PR (public relations)...maintaining public confidence in the face of media proclamations of "lost value" against an item that is nothing more than some OTHER nation's own paper currency. To see this more clearly, draw from your own experience as Americans recently when the dollar dropped in external exchange rate against the Yen...falling from approximately 140 yen down to 100 yen. Did your currency truly lose over one-fourth of its "value"? Or did you continue to offer your own services for the same wages, and did your tall cold ones still cost the same at your favorite watering hole?

But make no mistake, when a currency truly "breaks" as we saw many do throughout the Asian Contagion, local prices can certainly get out of hand quickly, particularly if the nation is not self-sufficient or out of debt, and if the rest of the world has little need for the local currency.

As regards the dollar price of euros or the dollar price of gold, there seems to be a clear and strong media agenda to build up the dollar at the expense of these others. Why does the dollar need so much outside support and cheerleading? A sign of trouble? With no similar spokesperson, gold is right in the thick of things and holding its own quite nicely. In the end, gold in hand remains a real wealth asset, whereas with paper currency you can't be too certain exactly what you've got, value-wise, from one day to the next. The paper giants are squaring off, and with gold you can remain safely upon the battlefield, whatever the outcome.
nickel62
(05/01/2000; 12:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 29671)
Golden Boy I enjoyed your comments on Cambior. I think you are right on.
It is a real shame that a fine company like Cambior has been ripped apart by the actions of the market manipulators, but Teck is a very well managed company and the Cambior shareholders could do a lot worse than be taken over by a mining company with Teck's expertise. I think I will go take another look at Teck as a good investment since this acquisition also has a fair number of attractions included in it for an upside story in Tech when the gold prices rebound. Are the copper plays that Cambior used to have still part of the company or have they been sold off to stave off bankruptcy?
Cavan Man
(05/01/2000; 12:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 29672)
Golden Boy or lamprey_65
What might CBJ sell for considering their hedge book problems? What about their extraction cost and are they a low cost miner?
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 12:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 29673)
Cavan Man
I have no idea. I've kept away from the company since the hedge problem was announced...just too risky.

As an aside...so close to picking up some cheap silver rounds this weekend on Ebay...last minute bidders drove it way up, as usual. Not a good place for bullion, imo -- a seller's market. I play around just to see if people aren't paying attention -- very rarely happens on bullion.
Galearis
(05/01/2000; 13:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 29674)
@Lamprey_65
Yes, indeed, eBay is increasingly not the place to buy bullion! I don't know whether you have been keeping track, but the prices on eBay seem to be inching up even as POS keeps "inching" down.

My last forway into this nail-biting buy method netted me 4 10 ozers at an average price of $57 ea. I have since found a coin dealer who will do much better, both in price and lower stress level (while one waits for the delivery and customs damage). Never again. Prices are now averaging over $60. Canadian buyers must know that with insured parcels of bullion, they WILL be hit with PST and GST at the border. This quickly makes such purchases less than agreable.

My bullion dealer (on this side of the border, M.K.) is slightly slightly cheaper than Kitco - and without the shipping costs! My advice for buyers is to go to the best suppliers in your respective countries. USAGOLD is (of course!) highly recommended, but to avoid shipping costs and other add-ons, a prudent shopper can sometimes do very well in the local area.
Golden Boy
(05/01/2000; 13:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 29675)
Cambior
nickel62! Cambior has yet to sell their copper exploration properties. They recently wrote them down to what they believe is their market value of US$65mln. They did sell Bouchard-Hebert and Langois last month to Breakwater. Lamprey_65, it is a shame that Cambior did what they did and their share price a suffered miserably. But, their Net Asset Value is well above where they are trading at today, I estimate it at C$3.00 using conservative estimates. The market has factored in the assumption that they cannot meet their debt payment of $75mln by June 30. They sold two mines for $48 million leaving them $27 million to come up with by June. They have $14mln in cash, therefore only $13mln needed to find by June. The company said in its conference call last Tuesday that they are close to completing a couple of deals. They could sell Niobec for $35-$40mln or their copper assets for $65 mln. They have another $120 mln in Debt due at the end of December but that can easily be refinanced considering that Cambior produces 600,000 profitable ounces a year. This is a great stock to own, take-over or no take-over. With gold where it is today, the company is getting close to being able to close out its hedge book at no cost, another factor heavily weighing on the company. Great Buying Opportunity.
Usul
(05/01/2000; 13:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 29676)
What are 'they' really afraid of?
What are the "Powers that be" really afraid of? And what
should we, as goldbugs, look out for as signs that gold
might begin to experience exceptional demand?

"Reichenberger flinched. He, like all German bankers, did
not like to hear about the collapse of the Herstatt bank,
back in 1974. Just as American bankers preferred to avoid
the subject of Franklin National. Both were billion-dollar
institutions, and both had gone belly-up. In late 1978,
everybody in the business knew that such things could
happen again. But on an unimaginably larger scale."
-Paul E. Erdman, "The Crash of '79", Sphere Books, 1977.

Erdman's story was a work of fiction- but Herstatt and
Franklin were real enough. Bankhaus Herstatt was a small
German bank highly active in foreign exchange dealings, and
it was a string of losses in these dealings that caused its
demise in June 1974. It left $620m of unsettled forex
trades, where counterparties had paid up but had not
received the exchange currency- the time difference between
settlements in different countries was important here. The
bank had already been closed down by the time that the
payment of currency owed was due.

Herstatt's default set up a terrifying domino effect of
payment defaults throughout the international banking
community- of the kind that they never want to see again,
at all costs.

Franklin National failed in October 1974, apparently due to
poor credit control. A bank with over $3bn of assets, it
was not "too big to fail".

The problems in these two banks led to the setting up of the
Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, the Secretariat for
which is provided by the BIS, with its international
oversight of banks' capital adequacy standards. It also
led to international efforts to make improvements in the
timing and synchronisation of settlements between
international time zones. We watch to see whether banks
are running into capital adequacy limits. This was
recently a key issue in Japan.

The failure of these banks was also accompanied by a large
spread between three-month CD rates and three-month Treasury
bill rates [according to the Richmond Fed, 1998].

We watch such "spreads" for insight into the prevailing
concern over the risk of potential default in the 'system'.

It is also apparent from a consideration of the Herstatt
event that a too-rapid change in, for example, the
yen/dollar rate, could result in defaulted payments due to
the timing of events in addition to the stress on forex
positions. This is perhaps a consideration behind the
frequent comments from Japanese officials that a too-rapid
change in the strength of the Yen is undesirable.

"It was the judgment of officials at the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York, who were monitoring the situation on an
ongoing basis, that the act of unwinding LTCM's portfolio in
a forced liqudiation would not only have a significant
distorting impact on market prices but also in the
process could produce large losses, or worse, for a number
of creditors and counterparties, and for other market
participants who were not directly involved with LTCM. In
that environment, it was the FRBNY's judgment that it was to
the advantage of all parties--including the creditors and
other market participants--to engender if at all possible
an orderly resolution rather than let the firm go into
disorderly fire-sale liquidation following a set of
cascading cross defaults."
- Alan Greenspan, October 1, 1998

In the 1920s, money flowed into various European countries-
such as Austria. With such a flow of easy money, banks,
such as Austria's Credit-Anstalt bank, were tempted to lend
too freely without the controls that would have been applied
in more austere times.

Austria ran up a large import-export deficit, importing more
than it exported and financing the difference by borrowing
from other countries.

We goldbugs should consider where the easy money flows,
where institutions exist in an environment that encourages
laxity, and where the burden of debt lies.

After the famous 1929 Wall Street crash, banks tightened up
on lending, and as a consequence, many people found
themselves unable to repay debts. This of course only
worsened the credit crunch and liquidity crisis (today there
is a determination by monetary authorities that such a
credit crunch will be headed off by injections of
liquidity). We watch the money supply indicators, such as
the aggregate MZM, and the activities of the Fed in
conducting 'repo' and similar operations, to see what is
going on behind the scenes.

However, they are between a rock and a hard place, in that
the opposite of a deflationary spiral is an inflationary
one, so they are forced to inject liquidity with one hand,
while hiking interest rates with the other- not too fast
mind, or that might spook the markets! What happens when
the rock and the hard place come together with increasing
force? That sounds a bit like an earthquake zone!

We also notice events such as the nationalisation of the
Long Term Credit Bank of Japan in 1998, judged insolvent by
the FSA in October and placed under state control after
"special loans" from the BOJ failed to do the trick. Events
such as these surely animate the spectre of the
Credit-Anstalt in the 1930s, and Herstatt in the '70s, in
today's monetary authorities.

"The failure of some banks is highly contagious to other
banks and businesses that deal with them"
- Alan Greenspan, Sep 23, 1998

The hasty bail-out of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge
fund in the US by third parties rounded up by the Fed was
another eyebrow-raising event for goldbugs, and as Alan
Greenspan said, it "could have potentially impaired
the economies of many nations, including our own".

Apparently, this bailout was so successful, the partners
received Christmas bonuses that same year.

The powers-that-be were scared (one Fed governor was
reported as describing it as an 11th-hour rescue) that a
failure of LTCM, which had borrowed heavily from other
institutions, could have caused a cascading series
of cross-defaults, spreading a crisis through the banking
system.

From 1930, Austrian and foreign depositors took money out
of the Credit-Anstalt bank on worries over the soundness of
the bank's loans, leading ultimately to the bank's failure
in Spring, 1931. This was the first domino in an expanding
series of financial problems that exacerbated the economic
misery of the 1930s.

Price deflation had raised the value of debts (the opposite
of inflation, which allows debts to fade away of their own
accord).

Germany had been paying formal reparations, financed by
short-term borrowing (note that the current yield curve
inversion has been caused by a preference for short-term
borrowing over long-term- another thing to watch).

The Bank of England bailed out the Austrians with 4.5
million pounds Sterling. This did not impress the French
and others, who sold the pound, leading to a suspension of
gold parity on 21st September, 1932. When all else fails,
people run to gold.

Where is the risk in a stock market crash? People losing
substantial amounts of money clearly won't be wanting to
spend money into the economy any more. But perhaps a
scarier prospect is the level of speculation funded by
borrowed money. Not now margin supplied by brokers, which,
at lower levels than 1929, is often trumpeted as a good
(as in well-controlled) thing, but other sources- maxed-out
credit cards, bank loans, and mortgage funds. The latter
brings to mind the liquidity supplied today by
non-government agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-
about which the public was recently reminded that they do
not have the guarantees that some people seem to think they
have. Keep an eye on these alternative sources of credit.
A stock market crash today could put strain on a wide range
of lending counterparties.

Some banks may also be subject to risks associated with the
difficulties in farming with produce at ruinously low prices
for the farmer. If there is a bank whose customers are a
mix of farmers and stock market investors, you can bet they
are worried at any market instability.

The one thing that must be preserved by priority, beyond the
integrity of the stock markets and individual investors, is
the integrity of the the settlement of obligations between
counterparties in the banking system.

The stock market might be allowed to crash and recover, as
in 1987, but if the problems should even hint at the
possibility of cascading cross-defaults, as in the LTCM
crisis, then that is where all the stops will be pulled out,
or the alternative is a repeat of the 1930s.

The Franklin National bank was once thought "too big
to fail"- yet it failed. Could it happen again?

If the financial system melts down, money in banks may
become inaccessible; severe inflation or deflation may
ensue; but only investments in precious metals
(particularly those held independently of third parties)
will be secure.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 13:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 29677)
Galearis
Yes, I have noticed the prices inching up on Ebay over the past few weeks. I also play around with 1/10 ounce gold bullion pieces there...prices slowly rising over the past month. Very strange. Seems that as POG falls, interest in buying goes up on Ebay...prices then follow.
Galearis
(05/01/2000; 14:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 29678)
Lamprey_65
Buying advice/observation for eBay purchases of silver (I hesitate that this even be taken for advice): One has to wait for a lower (or lowering POS) that lasts for the duration of the auction. This tends to disinterest prospective buyers, hopefully for the duration of ones own interest in it. One is inclined to think that this buying behavior is initiated by those who may have an incling about the fundamentals and shortfalls of the silver market, and that they are quietly accumulating metal for the explosion to come. Except for the novelty bars for sale, the range is tight and correlates with spot fairly closely - with, of course, the premium added for liquidity as it relates to the size of the bar.

Like you I dabbled in this a little, just to see what would happen. I was fortunate. Most of the time this is a waste of time and money.

My great coup in savings on my eBay purchase amounted to a whopping $8.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 14:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 29679)
Galaeris
Yes, basically a waste of time. Best way is to find a good dealer and buy in quantity to lock in a discount.
YGM
(05/01/2000; 14:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 29680)
Knallgold......your #29661 reply...
You're Not Alone.... For I also have been entertaining similiar thoughts lately about the June story.....I have a call in just now to the origional Merrill Lynch broker who (friend also) told me of this mysterious story......Farfel if I remember correctly had the breakfast story along about the same time......I will let you know of the results when my call is returned tonite.....
It's sometimes difficult not to entertain thoughts of conspiracies when you read the "Sting" follow GATA, and hear these types of rumours, at least to my mind anyways... But maybe I just want there to be a "Conspiricy Afoot".... Reason tells me otherwise! Myself, possibly you and many others are at least questioning the big picture w/ scepticism.......Makes the Gold market less boring, no?...........YGM
YGM
(05/01/2000; 14:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 29681)
Of Interest.........Worthy of Commentary....TC?..Anyone?
Unedited...Denmark's Ruling Social Democrats Say Yes to EuroAFPMay 1, 2000

ODENSE, Denmark - Denmark's ruling Social Democrats voted overwhelmingly in favour of joining the euro zone at a special conference Sunday ahead of a national referendum on the single currency on September 28.

Out of 501 delegates, only 15 voted against, Ritzau news agency reported.

The conference opened with a passionate speech by the party's leader, Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rassussen, in support of joining the euro.

"Economic and monetary union is the surest protection against the effects of international currency crises and stops speculation," he told the meeting.

The majority of delegates had already decided to back Rasmussen's push for euro membership after the party executive committee almost unanimously recommended a yes vote.

The resolution before the conference stated that the single currency "will ensure the prosperity and stability of the economy...and enable Denmark to influence communal decisions affecting its future."

Denmark is a member of the European Union but in 1992 its electors rejected the Maastricht Treaty covering the euro as well as matters of external affairs and security.

Voters later approved the treaty with an annexe which effectively enabled Denmark to opt out of its provisions unless another referendum decided otherwise.

According to a Gallup poll published last Tuesday, 52 percent of Denmark's Social Democrats favoured joining the euro, with 35 percent opposed and 13 percent undecided.



COPYRIGHT 2000 Agence France-Presse. All rights reserved.
ORO
(05/01/2000; 15:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 29682)
USAGOLD - American Subjects of the Bank of England
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q1/2000%5F03/1000313.025244.mozeleeee.htmMK,

You asked about the issue of the reference to Americans as Subjects.

Indeed, the only way that Americans be made into citizens again is that they do not owe debt, and that they are not registered as persons in commerce. I have not a clue as to how this would be possible.

A good read of Mozel's posts at Kitco will be a great eye opener. In his case, put the salt away for your first read, his analysis survived the limited scrutiny I had an opportunity to subject it to - so far, no reason for doubt has tainted his reading.
Upon second reading you might want to take up the salt shaker and put liberal amounts of salt on your preconceptions regarding law and the constitution. It will become obvious to you that these preconceptions are not but a piece of fiction taught you in government schools.

A discussion of Mozel's analysis follows.

Treaty of 1783 Peace treaty with England which involves Spain and France
http://elsinore.cis.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/paris.htm
Article 4:
It is agreed that creditors on either side shall meet with no lawful impediment to the recovery of the full value in sterling money of all bona fide debts heretofore contracted.
----------------------
"...without lawful impediment..."
What does it mean?
Mozel gives a discussion of subsequent traties and their significance
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q1/2000%5F03/1000313.025244.mozeleeee.htm
Mozel's key observations
1. This means that there can be no redress in the courts to a debtor. It poses execution of debt contracts with the British King as superceding law.
2. Furthermore, it creates the term "Individual" that means "person engaged in commerce" which is not due the protections of law, and those of the constitution.
3. The treaties bind the US to discharge debt with no recourse to law. This puts the whole government of the US and the several States above the law of the courts and the constitution when executing the terms of debt contract with the King of the Britons and subjects he may favor.


Descriptions of the resulting legal status of people as artificial legal entities - "individual" means incorporated person - who is not subject to any rights under the constitution.
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998%5F02/980228.134736.mozeleeee.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998%5F03/980305.135549.mozeleeee.htm
Sources:
1802 Convention:
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/diplomacy/jayconv.htm
Key Article:
ARTICLE, IId
Whereas it is agreed by the Fourth Article of the Definitive Treaty of Peace, concluded at Paris, on the Third Day of September, One Thousand Seven Hundred and Eighty Three, between His Britannic Majesty and the United States, that Creditors on either Side should meet with no lawful Impediment to the Recovery of the full Value in Sterling Money, of all bona Fide Debts theretofore contracted, it is hereby declared that the said fourth Article, so far as respects its future Operation, is hereby recognized, confirmed and declared to be binding and obligatory on His Britannic Majesty and the said United States, and the same shall be accordingly observed with punctuality and good Faith, and so as that the said Creditors shall hereafter meet with no lawful Impediment to the Recovery of the full Value in Sterling Money of their bona Fide Debts.

Second Key article:
Treaty of 1783
http://elsinore.cis.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/paris.htm
ARTICLE 10.
Neither the Debts due from Individuals of the one Nation, to Individuals of the other, nor shares nor monies, which they may have in the public Funds, or in the public or private Banks shall ever, in any Event of war, or national differences, be sequestered, or confiscated, it being unjust and impolitick that Debts and Engagements contracted and made by Individuals having confidence in each other, and in their respective Governments, should ever be destroyed or impaired by national authority, on account of national Differences and Discontents.
------------------------------
Now tell me who it is that has written these treaties.
Wouldn't these be the Bankers to the Crown of England? Those granted Royal Charters to own whole lands, their people and property?
------------------------------

US people are viewed as subjects of the US government in some of the base treaties with His Britannic Thief and Thug
Treaty of 1783
http://elsinore.cis.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/paris.htm

ARTICLE 1
His Britannic Majesty acknowledges the said United States, Viz New Hampshire, Massachusetts Bay, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, to be free Sovereign and independent States; That he treats with them as such; And for himself, his Heirs and Successors, relinquishes all Claims to the Government, Propriety, and territorial Rights of the same, and every part thereof; and that all Disputes which might arise in future, on the Subject of the Boundaries of the said United States, may be prevented, It is hereby agreed and declared that the following are, and shall be their Boundaries Viz

The proclamation of congress
http://elsinore.cis.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/proc1783.htm

We have thought fit to make known the same to the Citizens of these States and we hereby strictly Charge and Command all our Officers, both by Sea and Land, and others, Subjects of these United States, to Forbear all Acts of Hostility, either by Sea or by Land, against His Britannic Majesty or his Subjects, from and after the respective Times agreed upon between their Most Christian and Britannic Majesties as aforesaid.
-----
Most Christian = Kings of France and Spain



Cavan Man
(05/01/2000; 15:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 29683)
YGM & Knallgold
Can you refer us to the June '99 Forum(s) and posts?
pdeep
(05/01/2000; 15:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 29684)
M3 growth
I just ran the numbers for M3 between the last report on 12/27/99 and last week. It has only grown by 1.9%.

Bad medicine for the markets.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(05/01/2000; 15:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 29685)
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 1, 2000

Rates for Friday, April 28, 2000

Federal funds 6.06

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.83
10-year 6.23
20-year 6.31
30-year 5.97

upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.09%)
ORO
(05/01/2000; 16:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 29686)
Addendum - a constitutional quote
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/art6.htm1. All debts contracted and engagements entered into, before the adoption of this constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this constitution, as under the confederation.

[This turns the treaty of 1783 into the law of the land]

2. This constitution, and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof; and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States shall be the supreme law of the land; and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby, any thing in the constitution or laws of any state to the contrary notwithstanding.

[This allows the continued expansion of the authority granted the governments of the States and the Federal government with further treaties.]


canamami
(05/01/2000; 16:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 29687)
Reply to Oro - 29682
Interesting point....though some old-style Anglophile Canadian Tories used to claim that the US stayed out of WWII just long enough to suck all the gold and the wealth and the status out of the British Empire, and only then entered the war against Hitler - i.e., delayed fighting Hitler so that when the War ended, the US would reign supreme. Myself, I don't accept that theory, for various reasons, one of which is a dislike of the "rational actor" model of international relations...too many competing internal interests for it to be accurate. In any event, my point is that a lot of Anglophiles share views somewhat similar to yours, but thay view the Americans as the bad guys. I do recall reading a passage from a book by a turn-of-the-century US statesman who said that Canada was too valuable a hostage, such that the US could ensure the British Empire would not give the US any serious problems.
YGM
(05/01/2000; 16:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 29688)
Cavan Man....
In answer to your question, I'd have to say I'm at a loss as to when we had the origional discussion here. It was, I believe, 1 to 3 months before June 99, as we had to wait for some time for any confirmation. As we know, it never came.....Personally, I've digested so much since then I'm not sure I can even remember the whole of the story....but I will try to renew the conversation, even if only for personal reasons......I have just as much respect today for the sources story & the source himself, as I did then........YGM.
TheStranger
(05/01/2000; 17:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 29689)
Cambior, Euro, Price Increases
I don't know why Cambior is being described as some fine but unfortunate company. If ever there were a management to deserve rebuke of farfelian proportions it is this one. After all, what was an investment in Cambior if not a bet AGAINST gold for any hapless investor who happened to park his money with these scoundrels? I know there will be lawsuits. I just hope someone goes to jail.

Now the Euro... I have been down on the poor euro since its debut, but enough is enough. This situation has evolved into a currency valuation disparity which is simply too big to ignore. The U.S. has a record current account deficit; Europe is in surplus. Meanwhile, Wall Street is still treating the U.S.inflation story like a minor side show. That is one act of self-delusion about to hit a brick wall. U.S. inflation is already double that on the continent. So, whatever the long-term outlook for dollar/euro, the short-term is about to reverse. And when markets defy macro-economic reality like this, the snapback, when it comes, can be violent. I would look for a significant euro rally very soon.

One last item:
May 1, 2000
"Manufacturers Pass On
Price Increases to Consumers

By MARK TATGE
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Manufacturing companies, faced with higher energy, raw material and labor
costs, are starting to push through price increases to customers."

See Section B, Page 10 for the full story.
Farfel
(05/01/2000; 17:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 29690)
Analyzing the Swiss Gold Sale...
Swiss Central Bank to Announce Details of 1,300 Ton Gold Sale Tomorrow
By Andreas Britt


Zurich, May 1 ( Bloomberg ) -- The Swiss central bank will
tomorrow announce details of the sale of 1,300 metric tons of gold
in what will be the lion's share of a five-year joint plan among
European central banks.

The Swiss government today instituted a law allowing the
sales, which could garner as much as 17 billion Swiss francs ( $10
billion ) . The bank will sell the gold gradually so as not to
depress prices, it's said.

Prices recovered last year after the Swiss plan became part
of an agreement by 15 European central banks in which total sales
would be limited to 2,000 tons during five years. Prices plunged
to a 20-year low after the initial Swiss announcement in 1996.

The Swiss want to sell gold ``as soon as possible,'' central
bank President Hans Meyer said at the bank's annual shareholder
meeting Friday. It's one of the few central banks in the world to
offer shares to the public and release earnings figures.

The price of gold fell to an eight-month low of $272.75
today, bringing the year's decline to 5.3 percent. Analysts said
prices have probably seen their highs for the year, as government
sales meet weak demand from investors, according to a report last
week by London consulting firm Gold Fields Mineral Services.

Now that the government has carried through a law allowing
the gold sales, the Swiss central bank, known as the Swiss
National Bank, will make all other decisions including when the
sales will take place and how much will be sold at each sale.

The SNB will publish the results of its gold sales on its
thrice-monthly bank-return reports, the bank's chief spokesman,
Werner Abegg, said. May's three releases are scheduled for
tomorrow, the 11th and the 22nd.

The SNB holds 2,590 tons of gold, making it the biggest
holder of gold per capita -- Switzerland has 7.1 million
inhabitants -- and Switzerland the world's third-largest gold-
holding nation.

Closure

The start of the sales will bring to an end a process begun
in 1996 by SNB President Hans Meyer. When Finance Minister Kaspar
Villiger threw his weight behind the idea a year later, gold took
a tumble, which proved not to be the last time.

While gold dealers are bracing themselves for the Swiss
sales, Switzerland still hasn't decided what it will do with the
cash bonanza.

Using proceeds from 500 tons, the government is planning the
Solidarity Foundation for the poor at home and abroad partly in
response to criticism Switzerland profited from World War II by
dealing with the Nazis and hoarding Holocaust victims' assets.

The Foundation, which was last year put to the parliament,
was defeated as the Social Democrats, who questioned other parts
of the law, added their votes to those of the Swiss People's
Party, the right-wing isolationist group whose figurehead is Ems-
Chemie Holding AG Chief Executive Christoph Blocher.

Cross Purposes

The government has since pledged it will again bring a
proposal before parliament. Nevertheless, the chances of the
Foundation being accepted by government and surviving a popular
referendum declined when the Christian Democratic Party this year
floated the idea of instead giving the money to the International
Committee of the Red Cross, the nonprofit group based in Geneva.

When the bank and the government united to pursue the idea of
a gold-sale plan, the federal government's budget deficit was
steadily widening, bringing the aggregate federal debt to an
estimated 109 billion francs in 1999.

Finance Minister Villiger told Bloomberg News in February
1999 that he wanted to use part of the one-time windfall to cut
the country's debt, in contrast to others who urged spending on
new social programs.

Earlier this year, the government reiterated its plan to
create the Solidarity Foundation, while using the rest -- about
10.4 billion francs with an annual return of about 300 million
francs -- on the state pension, education and lowering debt.

As recently as April 3, Swiss neighbor Austria announced it
would sell 90 metric tons of gold from its reserves, or 20 percent
of its holdings, over five years. The Austrians followed the
Netherlands, which said it would sell 300 tons, and the U.K.

Boom Period

Since Switzerland's gold-sale plan was announced in 1996, the
country's economy has taken off. Economic growth accelerated to an
annualized 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter as exports boomed
from higher European demand and a weaker Swiss franc, setting
Switzerland on course for the quickest expansion in a decade.

Now, political parties are demanding the government spend the
money on more tangible purposes such as the country's state
pension system and education.

The Swiss People's Party, which is also campaigning to keep
Switzerland from joining the European Union, started a popular
initiative to put all proceeds into the state pension fund to
secure the system for future generations.

�2000 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved.
-----------------------------------------------

When you read the previous press release, it is hard to imagine a more bizarre logic at work. Reading the piece, it is easy to imagine you are in the Twilight Zone.

The Swiss are eager to sell gold at near all time price lows for which they have no idea how they will use the proceeds????????? Moreover they may end up giving away a good amount to the Red Cross????? Moreover, they are doing this at a time when world stock markets have never looked more unstable and volatile, at a time when gold threatens to
spring from its slumber???? Moreover they are making their gold sales at a time that another Central Bank (ENGLAND) is competing earnestly to achieve the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE????

Now Reg Howe thinks that the Swiss gold sale is designed to cover the gold loans of ECM nations that cannot retrieve their gold (since as we all know, the entire concept of gold "loans" is specious in that the collateral is sold and consumed).

Then there are those extreme cynics who suggest that the Swiss gold sale represents the real amount of Switzerland's gold loans, and since that collateral has already been sold and consumed, then the Swiss Central Bank is simply recognizing that fact by "selling" gold it no longer has in its possession and has no chance in hell of retrieving at these current low gold prices. In other words, the entire gold sale is no more than an accounting trick by a Central Bank in which no real gold will go up for sale, it will simly be an intra-Central bank accounting scam.

I personally lean toward the latter interpretation simply because it is compatible with the manner in which today's Clinton (or Debt) Economics works...and Clintonism appears to infect the entire world today.

For example, the Clinton government merrily declares it created a marvelous budget surplus, yet refuses to spend this surplus on anything tangible. Instead, we are treated to many, neverending debates about what to do with the surplus and the net result: the surplus is NEVER spent.

Well, if the so-called budget surplus exists only due to borrowings of Social Security funds that must be repaid someday, then in reality, of course, the budget surplus does not exist and naturally, it makes no sense to spend something that is not real.

Analogously, it makes perfect sense that the Swiss National Bank would NOT try to maximize its returns from a gold sale if in fact, that gold was already disposed of long ago. If the gold is long gone, who cares what price you declare you received since any price above $35 (the price most Central Banks value their gold reserves) constitutes profit to the Central Bank? The only important thing would be to reconcile the books ASAP before any perceptive, investigating citizens discovered the big hole in the government's real gold reserves.

It would make perfect sense for the Swiss to be in a rush to
GIVE away some gold sale proceeds to charity when in fact they no longer have the gold anyway. Send the charities currency, then simply declare the currency to be the result of phony gold sales.

The bottom line is this: there is such a huge absence of fundamental rational logic behind this Swiss gold sale that it is impossible for normal thinking people to view it in any light other than one of scam or conspiracy.

Even if you are a person who has resisted conspiracy theories all your life (and I am of that ilk), this type of irrational behavior on the part of Central Banks compels a person to look for a conspiracy.

In the end analysis, I can only imagine that desperation on the part of Western Central Banks to sell gold at any price may come less from any need for liquidity to service debt and more from a need to suppress this formidable competitor to the US Dollar before the US Dollar comes under attack via collapsing US stock markets and that potential collapse threatens the entire global financial status quo.

Thanks

F*
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 17:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 29691)
TheStranger
The phrase "what a shame" in reference to to Cambior has more to do with the loss the shareholders have realized than any sorrow I feel for the company's executives. (...and no, I did not own shares).
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 18:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 29692)
I've got a live one!
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/OK, folks...take a look at the link above -- it's Kaplan's commentary for today. Scroll down to the second question where he answers concerning manipulation in the gold market (all today's material is in bold type).

I know what I think (I'll wait to see the responses, should be fun!!)...comments, anyone?

Lamprey
Cavan Man
(05/01/2000; 18:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 29693)
Rhetorical Question
If gold is merely a commodity and "worthless" as an investment, why all the disinformation, secrecy and what my kids would call, "funny business". This IMF gold trick just takes the cake.

The Stranger: I am so glad to hear you say that!
TheStranger
(05/01/2000; 18:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 29694)
James Grant On The Rosy Productivity Numbers
http://www.nytimes.com/00/05/01/oped/01gran.htmlThose following the inflation story will want to read today's op-ed piece from the New York Times. Just click on the link above.

Pssst...Lamprey, I was a Cambior victim and was just waiting for a chance to spout some venom. Sorry if I came off adversarial.
USAGOLD
(05/01/2000; 18:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 29695)
Oro. . .
I will preface what I say with the statement that I am not an attorney, though I have studied issues like the one I think this deals with from a political and philosophical point of view.

I have no problem with the United States signing a treaty with the British in which it is reaffirmed that parties entering into contracts are not relieved of the responsibilities agreed upon simply because one side or the other won the war, or one side or the other is more politically, militarily, economically powerful than the other, or because we are separated by an ocean, etc. This is not only good politics, it is good foreign policy for those representing parties on both sides of the Atlantic and made for the good conduct of business from that time forward for both sides. I would hope that such treaties could be signed by civilized countries even today though that might be difficult when you are dealing with Communists, or terrorists, or political gangsters who have a radically different set of values than we do.

I do not read anything into that language beyond what I've just described. I do not detect British tentacles digging subversively under the American legal system to somehow retie the fruits of our labor to the British monarchy (as some have suggested). The Revolutionary War was not fought to relieve the American people of legitimate, freely contracted debt obligations. Please note that reference to creditors "on either side" shall meet with no lawful impediment, etc. -- an Agreement between His Britannic Majesty (who by the way was a madman) and the United States, etc., and I do not see where the debtor would not have recourse. If that be the case, those debtors would enjoy the same advantage (and disadvantages) on both sides of the Atlantic. I see in this language, I might add, capitualtion on the part of His Britannic Majesty, not the opposite -- an extraordinary document under the circumstances.

If I'm missing something here, I'm sure you or Mozel will let me know.

But back to the "subject" discussion, under British law, one might have been at one time termed a "subject" or "skraeling" or "non-entity" simply because they owed a debt (in some forelorn time), but winning the Revolution freed Americans of such a designation, and I believe the British did away with debtor prisons some time ago.


". . . a Republic, if you can keep it, " answered Franklin.
TownCrier
(05/01/2000; 18:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 29696)
Reply to Sir Stranger (4/29/2000; 9:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29582)
Your comment:
"Crier - I don't think your #29517 was really addressed just to me, but I thank you for it just the same."

My comment:
You are correct. I often use the news or the comments of another as a springboard to providing further thoughts for discussion. To address a post (such as the one you cited) to a particular person (such as you, as I have done again with this one) is really just to provide some continuity...a segue into additional subject matter. Except for the few points at which I may offer factual corrections to the commentary found here, for the most part I do not view my participation in the discussion here as anything more than background tapestry, or the equivalent of "elevator music", if you will. The mark I aim for is one of "inspiration" rather than one of direct "influence" (or worse, "substitution") for another person's own thinking process. For that reason, as I am doing even now, although I may address a post "toward" a specific poster, once that segue has been acheived, the comments provided afterwards are written as though its purpose were to serve a high school student looking here for the basis of choosing a topic for a reserch paper for a composition class. Hence the tone that may unintentionally appear to be patronizing in its simplicity.

Next comment:
"My own ... view is that the dollar will be a much more important reserve currency than the euro as long as the euro nations are a socialism-prone, loose confederation of states. That may be a long time."

My comment:
Is it possible that the structure of a currency (such as one that was convertible to gold but now is not) and an economic climate (such as a national trade balance falling into perennial deficit) may in fact evolve to the point where the term "reserve currency" has lost its importance, if not its meaning, altogether? A condition that has all appearances of an "unnatural state of affairs" often requires an unsustainable effort to maintain the "balance". Where evolution has perhaps brought the past usage of U.S. paper to be now out of balance within the modern functioning of the international financial architecture, how much longer may we contentedly assume "business as usual" to greet us with the dawn of each new day? It is, after all, a wide and weary world out there. And as for the politics of socialism, capitalism, or what have you, which I see frequently mentioned as a downfall (or merit) of a particular class of currency, at the end of the day the European Central Bank remains just that--a bank--and must balance its books each night just as is done at the reddest, whitest, and bluest of U.S. banks. The various governmental programs supported by various national fiscal policy and budget will find inefficiency and excess less easy to sustain when the central bank is independant of the nation and will not buy national government bonds like our own Federal Reserve System can, will, and does do outright.

Next comment:
"To this day, I still don't think anyone has ever actually held a euro in his hand."

My comment:
When you hold an assortment of dimes, quarters, and pennies, are you holding a U.S. dollar? This is precisely how it is if you hold French francs, Italian lira, Spanish pesetas, or German marks today. With the fixed exchange rate in place since the beginning of 1999, they have become the many faces of the euro. And just as the U.S. has seen the introduction of new faces on its own currency in recent years albeit with the same denominations (new quarters, dollars, $100s, $50s, $20s), so it will be with the euro beginning January 1, 2002, as the old look is phased out for the new.

Next comment:
"Yet the dollar is a readily accepted alternative to local currencies in day to day trade throughout the developing and lesser-developed world. That is a phenomenon which I suspect would be difficult to supplant, especially since the U.S. is the world's largest exporter, largest importer and has the world's largest absolute balance of payments deficit."

My comment:
"Very true. Looking back to 1971, however, one might also see an evolution in usage and thought spanning 30 years(!) to seem nearly adequate to acheive the bulk of the spadework necessary for the supplantation of "the old way of doing things". And further, even as monetary evolution brought the "developing and lesser-developed world" you mention to turn away from their old paper in favor of the variety that served their needs, one might say that they are now well-practiced and quite capable of doing it yet again when deemed prudent or advantageous. Again, I come back to evolution explaining the past and dictating the future. The T-Rex once had an impressive rule over the world, but is now only silent fleshless king of the fossil beds or else museum curiosities. Will the T-Bill somehow escape the same fate?

And like the dinosaur, whose flesh has failed while the bones endure, so it is with various monetary systems running the entire spectrum from the gold standard to pure fiat currency. New forms evolve to replace the old forms that fail when their contract/derivative "flesh" falls into decay. However, the bones...the gold...always endures to the new age. As such, the world's population knows many "bone collectors" who practice their "trade" throughout the good life and inevitable decay of their own national currency.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 18:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 29697)
Farfel
"Using proceeds from 500 tons, the government is planning the Solidarity Foundation for the poor at home and abroad partly in response to criticism Switzerland profited from World War II by dealing with the Nazis and hoarding Holocaust victims' assets."

Much of these assets consited of gold...I think this is part of the reason for the sale.

SHIFTY
(05/01/2000; 18:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 29698)
PONZI
Nasdaq 3,958.08 + Dow 10,811.78 = 14,769.86 divide by 2 = N.Y. PONZI 7,384.93 up 87.65 Ponzi points
Leland
(05/01/2000; 18:16:49 MDT - Msg ID: 29699)
I Went Back to 1998 for Something that I Wrote on Kitco
To find something that RE-INFORCES my earlier statements
about bank safe deposit boxes.

I was just a little boy during the '30s. But, I did believe
what happened to my elders. This is the kind of story that
I will never forget...and is timely.
Leland
(05/01/2000; 18:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 29700)
One of the Stories
Leland (@EJ) ID#31876:
Copyright � 1998 Leland/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm glad that you chimed in on the confiscation that happened
during the 30's. But, it wasn't just the gold that people
had stashed in their bank 'safety' deposit boxes. Let's say
that you had $100,000 in rolls of $20 bills in a bank box.
When the bank closed, there was no way to get to this money.
Then, when the bank did re-open, you finally went to the
bank to take some money out. In the 'safety' box was only
a receipt. It might have said $5,000 had been removed by
the Feds.
I cannot prove this did happen. That it did happen, I have
friends ( no longer here ) who I believe.
YGM
(05/01/2000; 18:33:06 MDT - Msg ID: 29701)
Noteworthy Article....
china daily.comGoldminers Run Out Of Sites.................


Date: 04/30/2000
Page: 1
Author: GONG ZHENGZHENG, Business Weekly staff


Despite a rising demand for gold in China, the mining sector is running short of proven gold resources.

The sector must beef up efforts in gold resource prospecting to satisfy a mounting demand, said Wang Dexue, director with the Gold Administration under the State Economic and Trade Commission (SETC).

The sector is aiming for an increase of 300 tons to 350 tons in new proven gold reserves and a gold output of 175 tons this year.

With improvements in the people's living standards, gold demand will continue to rise because most of them see the metal as a symbol of wealth, said sources with the World Gold Council.

Gold demand on the Chinese mainland increased by 7 per cent to 205 tons last year, making the country the world's third-largest gold consumer, the sources said.

Gold market deregulation in the country, which Wang has confirmed will begin within about two years, will further stimulate demand.

"Although gold demand growth is very encouraging to the sector, shrinking proven gold reserves have bottlenecked its sustainable development," Wang said in an interview with Business Weekly.

By the end of last year, proven gold reserves decreased to 2,300 tons from 2,400 tons at the end of the country's Eighth Five-Year Plan (1991-95).

Many of the country's gold resources have been squandered by small, low-level gold mines, which hold nearly half of the total proven reserves.

At present, there are more than 1,200 gold mines across the country, among which the small ones hold the lion's share of properties.

The sector will strengthen gold resource prospecting in the western region to break the bottleneck, in line with the central government's call for all-out efforts to develop the region, Wang said.

Only 27 per cent of the proven gold reserves are in the western regions, which cover more than half of the country's total territory.

The sector is in dire need of gold prospecting funds, Wang said.

"But with the country's financial reforms deepening, the sector is losing government financial assistance," Wang said.

The government invested only 100 million yuan (US$12.05 million) in gold prospecting annually during the past three years, compared with about 500 million yuan (US$60.24 million) from 1986 to 1996.

A special fund for gold prospecting will be abolished next year, Wang said.

In addition, the individual mine operators' abilities to reinvest in their own operations is limited because many of them are in dire financial straits because of a gold price slump in recent years, Wang said.

"The sector must explore more fund-raising channels, especially foreign investment, to fuel its gold prospecting," Wang said.

Foreign gold companies have been permitted to invest in the gold sector in line with interim central government provisions guiding foreign investment. But exclusively foreign-funded gold mines are still banned.

The SETC and the State Development Planning Commission are also studying how to remove barriers against foreign investment in the gold sector and how to use foreign investment in risky prospecting for gold resources, said the SETC sources.

Companies from the United States, Canada, Australia, Singapore and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region intend to co-operate with domestic gold mines in more than ten projects.

The country's approaching accession to the World Trade Organization and gold market deregulation will help accelerate the sector's foreign investment attraction, Wang said.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright by China Daily. All rights reserved.
Galearis
(05/01/2000; 18:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 29702)
Signs of tigh silver?
This may be old news or new news or ironic news. It is new news to me - and to me ironic at that. I just noticed over on Kitco that the company behind the forum will now purchase lots of junk sterling in 100 oz consignment size. Formally the minimum, to my knowledge was 1000 oz. The market tightens, or is this a purchasing policy change for some other reason?

If it is new news for the Kitcoites, then that would be ironic, yes?
Galearis
(05/01/2000; 18:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 29703)
repost from Kitco by rhody
This got a mute response from the other site, but I found it interesting:
************
Date: Mon May 01 2000 07:16
rhody (spot gold) ID#410367:
Copyright � 2000 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

So here we are back at the pog lows of last summer. I am mistaken you say? Nope. At 6% real inflation rates, the $272 that buys one ounce of gold today would be equal to $255 last summer.

Did I hear that gold is actually outperforming the dollar/stock markets? Not if you factor in inflation. Any drop below $US270, and I have to believe gold is signalling a deflationary collapse. The gold/SDR relationship is interesting. The SDR is presently at 1.3188, so 1.3188 X 208 ( pog carried on BIS books ) equals $274.30. This means that the manipulation has now dragged the pog down to where it seriously interferes with the BIS ability to settle accounts. The last time this happened, we got the Washington Accord. How long was gold kept down below 280 last summer before there was a reaction? IMHO, this situation is highly unstable.
beesting
(05/01/2000; 19:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 29704)
Farfel # 29690 Swiss Gold Sales.
From Farfel's post:
<< Partly in response to criticism Switzerland profited from WW II by dealing with the Nazis and hoarding Holocaust victims' assets.>>

Comment:
Something missing from the U.S. press the last few months has been the progress on the return of assets to relatives of Holocaust victims. It was determined last fall by a team led by Americans that there was indeed a large sum deposited by Holocaust victims. Last I heard their still searching for heirs.
It's my contention much of the Holocaust victims deposits were in the form of Gold, since Switzerland banking, to my knowledge, still accepts physical Gold deposits.
Now, I don't like to bring this up, but if 6,000,000 people died in the Holocaust doesn't it sound reasonable that many tonnes of Gold could have been deposited by many of them in neutral Switzerland.Also,much monies were backed by Gold at that time, and redeemable in Gold.Many forms of paper money could have been sent or hand carried to the Swiss bankers and converted into Gold upon deposit.
Remember the Jewish people owned many of the business's through out Europe at that time.

Now, this whole attempt to discredit Gold these last few years may be connected in some way to Gold deposited way back in the 1930's and 1940's. The final bank distributions to Holocaust victims families will probably be made in the "fiat" money of choice, but what if the families demanded original deposits that were made in Gold.
The banks would have to honor that or face class action lawsuits from countless thousands (millions?) of heirs.

Here is some more food for thought:
According to the latest U.S. Government figures, Switzerland has led all other countries in larger than normal amounts of U.S. Gold imported in the last 6 months. WHY????

Now if you were a Swiss banker and didn't want to get cought with your hand in the cookie jar( A U.S. phrase meaning deception).....Since most known physical Gold held by CB's is marked, cataloged, and recorded wouldn't it be prudent for the Swiss to sell Gold recently obtained in off market transactions from the U.S. at any upcoming Gold sales that had been previously announced, in an attempt to completly baffle anyone searching for ancestral Gold?? Or sell the Holocaust Gold to some-one else and replace it with U.S. Gold for some, as yet, unknown reason.

The plot thickens as we watch together.....beesting.
beesting
(05/01/2000; 19:23:09 MDT - Msg ID: 29705)
Sir Lamprey_65 # 29697
Didn't mean to steal your thoughts, I was slowly typing while you were posting,but we were thinking the same thing.....beesting.
White Hills
(05/01/2000; 19:27:46 MDT - Msg ID: 29706)
(No Subject)
Test
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 19:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 29707)
Cavan Man
Another "if gold is just a commodity"....

How come I don't hear of central bank vaults full of coffee, zinc, or soybeans?
White Hills
(05/01/2000; 19:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 29708)
Who are these Guys?
Las Vegas Review Journal April 30 2000. London--- Gold prices have probabily seen their highs for the year, as rising government sales meet tepid demand from investors and jewelers, Gold Fields Mineral Services said in an annual report on the gold market.---The metal probabily dwill trade between $260 and $310 an ounce for the rest of the year, the London-based research and consulting firm said. That's below this year's high of 326.90, reached in February on the New York futures market.---A four year slump in gold will continue this year as more central banks, the metal's biggest holders, look to sell their holdings, Golf Fields said.--- Who are these guys? Do the really get paid of this garbage? White Hills
SteveH
(05/01/2000; 19:58:42 MDT - Msg ID: 29709)
lamprey_65
I read the question. My thoughts were that the dollar and the Euro are in a tug-o-war. Kaplan (as regular and dedicated a soul he is) just doesn't get that. Therefore he doesn't see that entire nations' CBs are behind keeping the dollar strong and gold weak. When you know this, you soon realize that the candle can be lit from both ends. The Japanese wants the dollar strong, the US wants the dollar strong, the Brits want the dollar strong. When one asks, "Strong against what?" The answer seems to be against gold. Is it easier to manipulate gold? Or, is it easier to manipulate the dollar? When the net effect is the same, the answer seems to be both.

I read somehwhere (probably ORO) that it is easy to control the market through S&P futures. With computer models in spreadsheets on Dell 500mhz machines readily available, market control at key times and in key indices might just be the tool for the job. Fact is, by having a high trade deficit, with the foreign cash looking for a home, to wit: the stock market in the US; and with COMEX paper gold being a small market to control by the purse of large parents (CB's), and the Japanese looking to keep the Yen down, no wonder gold is tanked.

Whenever you here the Sec. of Treas. speak he says it is our policy to have a strong dollar. It all flows from there, doesn't it? Strong dollar=weak gold. Strong gold=weak dollar. So Mr. Kaplan is an astute observer who refuses to see enemies behind every tree, rather he believes in free markets and doesn't or can't see that a strong dollar is the glue that holds it all together. As long as the powers that be can apply more hot glue to the tearing seam, all is well, but things are getting pulled thin and the hot-glue gun is now producing overtime.

If gold wasn't at the center of the dollar universe, no one would give a rip. Gold is king, isn't it?
Leland
(05/01/2000; 20:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 29710)
Texas Politics ... Ron, FORT-WORTH STAR TELEGRAM, we Thank You For Your Candor
Updated: Monday, May. 1, 2000 at 01:21 CDT

Bush campaign's bark lacks some bite; role as governor gives
him little formal power

By Ron Hutcheson
Star-Telegram Washington bureau

WASHINGTON -- George W. Bush likes to tell audiences that if Texas were a nation,
it would be the world's 11th largest economy. What he does not tell them is how little
formal power he has over the state.

In seeking the nation's top executive office, Bush is touting his experience in a job
that was designed to have minimal clout. As governor, he does not control the
budget. He does not control spending. He cannot introduce legislation. He does not
even get to appoint other top executive branch officials.

Bush's supporters argue that his success in Texas, despite the limited powers of his
office, shows that he has the leadership skills for the White House. Even many of his
critics concede that he has used his powers of persuasion to leverage his limited
authority.

"He does that extremely well, better than any of the other three governors that I have
worked with," said state Sen. Ken Armbrister, a Democrat who supports Bush for
president. "He not only sets the agenda, but he sticks with the agenda."

But other key differences between government in Austin and recent history in
Washington underscore the difficulties Bush would face in trying to fulfill his pledge
to end what he calls "the arms race of anger" in the nation's capital. The partisan
sniping that has become commonplace in Congress is virtually unheard of in the
Texas Legislature, where the two parties happily share power.

"He has basically operated as a nonpartisan governor, and, because of that, he's
gotten tremendous support from Democrats for his policy positions. He can't do that
in Washington. Everything in Washington is partisan," said Charldean Newell, a
professor of public policy at the University of North Texas in Denton. "It's not the
same world that he's used to in Austin."

Bush acknowledged the difficulty in a television interview Thursday evening.

"It's going to be a test to my leadership," he told Jim Lehrer of PBS. "The only thing I
know to do is go by my gut instincts when I get sworn in. But in Texas, one of the
first things I did was I went and called upon Democrats. ... I think that's what's
necessary, Jim, in Washington."

The limits on the power of the Texas governor can be traced to the aftermath of the
Civil War, when Southern states chafed under leadership imposed by the victorious
North. When Texans rewrote their state constitution in 1876, they made sure that
future governors had to share power with a host of elected officials.

"A lot of what we have now is a reaction to what we didn't like 124 years ago," Newell
said, "and what we didn't like was a strong governor."

The Texas governor ranks in the bottom 10 of the 50 state executives in terms of
formal clout, said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia and a
leading expert on state governors.

In New York, Virginia and other states with strong governors, chief executives can
appoint loyalists to top jobs at every executive branch agency. In Texas, most key
positions, including lieutenant governor, are determined by election. High-level
agency jobs are filled by boards and commissions whose terms are staggered to limit
the governor's influence.

"That means that a governor comes in with a lot of people that his predecessor
appointed, and there is no effective way to get rid of them," Newell said. "His ability
to actually issue orders to the executive branch is pretty limited. The governor is more
in a position of asking rather than telling."

The Texas governor also has limited influence over the state budget. The initial draft
is written, not by the governor, as in many states, but by a panel of legislators.

"We want to be the ones putting together the budget," said Armbrister, the state
senator. He recalled that former Gov. Mark White wrapped his budget proposal in
bright paper, telling lawmakers they could use the document as a doorstop without
worrying that anyone would trip over it.

Still, Bush does have some significant clout.

His power to veto legislation, including line items, gives him strong leverage over a
legislature that is scheduled to meet for only 140 days every two years. The
Legislature has overridden a governor's veto only twice since 1941. The last time was
in 1979.

In addition, Bush has the authority to call lawmakers into special session for an
agenda of his choosing.

Unlike previous governors, Bush has also had time on his side. As the first governor
elected to back-to-back four- year terms, he has been able to replace appointees
installed by former Gov. Ann Richards, a Democrat.

According to figures compiled by the governor's office, Bush's 2,918 appointees have
majority control of more than 300 state boards and commissions.

But most observers say that the real measure of Bush's clout is his ability to influence
the state's agenda. Although Bush has not always prevailed on the specifics, he has
prodded lawmakers to deal with his priorities in every legislative session of his
tenure.

"The informal power of a governorship is at least as important as the formal power,"
Sabato said. "The governor's real power derives from his personality and the size and
importance of his state. He's done very well."

But Sabato questioned whether Bush's bipartisan approach will transfer to
Washington. After all, other presidents, including President Clinton and Bush's
father, made similar commitments before falling into intense partisan warfare with
Congress.

"I hope he's not naive enough to believe that it will be that easy," Sabato said. "If he
does, he needs to talk to Dad."

(Thanks to the FORT WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM with reporters who tell it like it is, and fair use protections apply)
SteveH
(05/01/2000; 20:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 29711)
lamprey_65
One more thing, the anti-gold press is becoming so strong now and there must be a reason to bring out all the guns at once. Bank of England auction, Swiss gold sales, you name it, they are saying it now. Why?

Because the end-game is near? Because the dollar is about to turn? Because gold kept at or below $290 is extremely important? Because pressures are building that requires this amount of anti-gold propaganda? Kaplan is probably right when he says he is extremely positive about gold right now. Commercial longs are increasing more and more.

Get ready, something is going on in gold and dollars and "wese got the best seat in 'da haus, eh?"
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 20:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 29712)
SteveH
I think Kaplan believes there is no manipulation simply because he gets so many emails asking him about it! He's a total contrarian...anything held by the majority must be wrong -- of course, he was wrong about Platinum, Ebay, on and on...it's just too simplistic an approach.

How he can't see manipulation on the COMEX is beyond me -- and he focuses entirely on that market! When I start to see large sell-offs after normal COMEX hours, maybe I'll rethink my position.
Cavan Man
(05/01/2000; 20:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 29713)
SteveH and Town Crier
Gentlemen,

You certainly don't need my two cents worth but those last two comments from you both were teriffic and deserving of Cavan Man's highest rating = 5 pints of Guinness!
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 20:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 29714)
Quote?
Anyone remember that quote from Greenspan?...something like "Gold is the only real form of payment" or "Gold is the payment of last resort" or something like that.

Have no doubt...central bankers do know the importance of gold - and remember, the Brit decision was a political one, not initiated by the BOE.
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/2000; 20:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 29715)
Interesting article on stock market excess
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm552r3h6ttr
YGM
(05/01/2000; 20:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 29716)
Knallgold & Cavan Man
June Rumor.... Just off the phone w/ the fellow.....Here it is again.....
The un-named Merril Lynch broker last year remembered a conversation he had w/ a client (highly placed Peruvian Official) back in 96. The jist of the comments made by client when asked if he'd like to invest in Gold Stocks were
so strange to the Broker he wrote them down. He (client) said "No" not until June 1999 when Gold is allowed to trade without interference. When asked how he knew this he replied, "All I can say is Gold will not trade freely until June 99! When I called my friend and heard the story, I asked if he would call the client to confirm the prediction and he did over the next few days.....When we again talked, the broker friend said the Peruvian official told him the time frame had been changed to June 2000.. But the fix was still in & would go on for another year............
Intriguing, yes, now if we only had the rest of the story........
Sorry if I sound deluded, but I believe the story, or at least that the people telling it believe it........Time will tell what's real & what isn't.....Hope this helps....YGM

....Kaplan may be a whiz, but if he can't see manipulation in PMs, then he better drag his head out of the sand-box. If I'm wrong I'll have alot less people pissed off than he will.

Go GATA & Go Physical....send GATA some ammo $$$$
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 20:46:38 MDT - Msg ID: 29717)
YGM
Like you, I think you have to keep things like that in the back of your mind while remaining sceptical. I do find it fascinating, however, that Merrill has a plan to set up FDIC insured accounts for their clients by June of this year so they can sweep their money into them in case of severe market turmoil...just another tid-bit I filed away!
YGM
(05/01/2000; 20:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 29718)
Knallgold & Cavan Man
June Rumor.... Just off the phone w/ the fellow.....Here it is again.....
The un-named Merril Lynch broker last year remembered a conversation he had w/ a client (highly placed Peruvian Official) back in 96. The jist of the comments made by client when asked if he'd like to invest in Gold Stocks were
so strange to the Broker he wrote them down. He (client) said "No" not until June 1999 when Gold is allowed to trade without interference. When asked how he knew this he replied, "All I can say is Gold will not trade freely until June 99! When I called my friend and heard the story, I asked if he would call the client to confirm the prediction and he did over the next few days.....When we again talked, the broker friend said the Peruvian official told him the time frame had been changed to June 2000.. But the fix was still in & would go on for another year............
Intriguing, yes, now if we only had the rest of the story........
Sorry if I sound deluded, but I believe the story, or at least that the people telling it believe it........Time will tell what's real & what isn't.....Hope this helps....YGM

PS: He is going to call the mystery client ASAP and try to renew the conversation over next few days...I will report those results if interested.....OF NOTE...my friend has told the story to a few high profile market players and analysts
since he told me and has had more than a few calls over the "LAST FEW DAYS" all wanting to know what we also seek......One is a name all here would recognize...and he is a tech stock specialist......(promote techs for the sheep and buy PMs for himself maybe) Why would a tech stock analyst be so interested in Gold, especially one ranked among the top 10 winners in the U.S?

....Kaplan may be a whiz, but if he can't see manipulation in PMs, then he better drag his head out of the sand-box. If I'm wrong I'll have alot less people pissed off than he will.

Go GATA & Go Physical....send GATA some ammo $$$$
YGM
(05/01/2000; 20:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 29719)
Sorry for double post...
The second one is complete....

**Lamprey---maybe we need a schedule of June events
2000........(smile).....YGM.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 20:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 29720)
YGM
Yes, there is a major tech stock money manager (can't remember his name, but think he has written for CBS Marketwatch) who uses gold stocks heavily as a hedge for his tech stock portfolio.
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 20:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 29721)
Also on June
Now, take this with a grain of salt because I am a total novice on commodity options, but...

There's a guy on Gold-Eagle (Don_L) who has supposedly done quite a bit of work on this end and claims June and December are the key months -- a six month cycle. I have no idea.
YGM
(05/01/2000; 21:08:23 MDT - Msg ID: 29722)
lamprey....
Open Interest...for June options is soaring is it not? (I don't follow them)......
Options have expired out of the money so often lately that they (Cabal) may feel they've scared off the competition, before the main event!!!....YGM (confused as always)
lamprey_65
(05/01/2000; 21:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 29723)
Another thought or two...
Boy, I either have no input or way too much!

Anyway, IF the pattern holds, we can expect a sell-off going into the FED meeting on May 16th (supposedly because people are anxious about interest rates rising)...

...then we'll get a rally right after the rates are raised (as the dollar is strengthened by the rate hike...coincidence?).

BEN over at Gold-Eagle is calling for a crash within 48 hours...he's either been lucky so far with his models or he's found something useful...who knows.
ORO
(05/01/2000; 21:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 29724)
USAGOLD - Lawful
If lawful impediments are not possible under the terms of treaty, then what is?

The legal reading would be that recovery of debt is by something other than courts of law. I asked my wife who is an attorney.

It places the contracts at issue, including those pertaining to the debts of the US governments, outside the authority of the law court. In a court of law, there are rights under the constitution and under jurisprudence.

All jurisdiction that remains is equity court where the contract and the statutory authority under which it was signed are all that matter.

The statutes don't have to be constitutional, no common law procedures are necessary, and any constitutional or natural rights can be infringed.

First and foremost, this term of the treaty implies that there is an authority outside the law, under which contracts can be enforced. International, national and state merchant codes state the obligations of parties to contracts of various types such that terms not specified explicitly are those of the statutes in the code. While contracts at common law are valid only in so far as both parties know what they are signing, contracts under merchant law bind the parties to the contents of statutes over which they have no control and one party to undisclosed provisions that the other party does not have to reveal unless exsplicitly asked for.

Mozel's claim, so far as I understand it, is that under the guise of reasonable debt provisions lay the grounds for an extra legal authority that is not bound by the constitution and under which no one is safe, de-facto, in his rights.

The authority for FDR's gold confiscation came from a set of legal claims, the key provisions, a la Mozel and a couple of others:

1. The 1917 Trading With the Enemy act was modified to include all citizens of the several states as enemies of the Federal United States of America.

2. Claimed that when Americans signed up for Social Security, they made themselves into "Individuals" that are artificial persons invoved in commerce. These people signed a contract with the Federal government (by joining Social Security) which references a statute that makes them subjects of the Federal United States. These subjects do not have protection by the constitution against legislation that allows forfeiture without due process.

3. It was claimed that the contract of Social Security and the contracts implied by use of Federal Reserve Notes provide a benefit over gold in that it limited liabilities to those lesser liabilities enumerated in the statutes of commercial law.

#3 was supposed to be necessary because the common law requires that both parties receive a benefit from a contract in order for it to be valid.
--------------------------

The most important point, however, is that of "no lawful impediments" puts outside the authority of the law courts all international contracts and domestic contracts that affect execution of the internaitonal contracts. In one broad reading, it takes the whole of contract law outside the jurisdiction of common law and the constitution.

Furthermore, it makes anyone who has stated himself to be a subject (a.k.a. citizen) of the Federal United States (which is an implied portion of practically any license, registration, or filing with any branch of government). This subject owes allegiance and is obliged to the nonconstitutional legislative democracy to pay its debts, fight in its wars, and abide by the whims of its legislators.

The constitution was supposed to limit the ability of government and "the people", a.k.a. Leviathan, to allocate to themselves the resources. Of particular interest to the framers was the point of not binding Americans to the wishes of Kings and other despots. The treaty laws make a mockery of the intentions of the constitution's writers. In the end, it seems that the concepts of freedom were enshrined in a document which is inaccessible without a sophisticated attorney.
------------------------

It all sounded like BS to me, but you need only a little investigation to see that it is possible.

------------------------

Mozel wrote of a historical situation in which we are still under Martial Law because right after the Civil War, in 1865, the Northern Union declared war on the Confederacy again, and the state of war was never ended. The congress convenes, and the supreme court rules under color of law instead of the law itself. "Color of law" meaning that it is "as if it were law", though it is not.

In this interpretation, the executive branch uses the legislation of the congress and constitution only in so far as it guides their search for claims with which to justify their actions. This interpretation essentially speaks of the government being in a perpetual state of play-acting, of concealing the fact of their having unlimited power.

I have not investigated it beyond a couple of documents after hitting a Supreme Court decision that speaks of Martial Law being outside the authority of any branch of government or of the government as a whole.

--------------------
Canuck
(05/01/2000; 21:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 29725)
US$
From another forum, credit to 'Goldmax':
-----------------------------------------------

I agree with the latest article by Saville (Gold and Stocks Update May 1, 2000).

Short of some major disaster that truly terrorizes the public, gold is going nowhere until the dollar declines against other currencies. As he points out, gold is now up 22% in Euros but is flat or down in dollars.

It seems the Dow and NAZ are only relevant to gold to the extent stock market action adversely affects the dollar. The same can be said for inflation. Ten years ago scary CPI/PPI numbers would result in limit up gold. Now inflation has no effect whatever on the POG.

As a contrarian, I am happy to have purchased my gold stocks at or near the bottom. Someday they will shine when the dollar tanks.
----------------------------------------------------------

Is the US$ 'maxed' out? Will volatile markets, inflation, debt, deficits etc. cause the dollar to falter? If the dollar is at or near it's high then is it logical to say gold is at it's low? Or is there a bigger question. Is gold falling against all currencies because ITS value diminishes? What is the reserve currency of the USA? If US$ is at or near maximum what does the US buy? It is not buying gold, exports figures indicate massive exports thus the USG is assuming higher dollar and/or lower gold, is this not logical? One does not buy something if he expects it to drop, yes? One of three things must be true:

a) USG is not logical
b) US$ is going up, gold is going down
c) Gold is going down on it's own merit.

We are buying and holding gold, the USG is selling, not acccumulating. Who is correct?

Further, euro is dropping against the USD. Gold in USA is dropping, gold is rising in Euroland. Euroland is selling gold because they must feel Euro will increase causing gold to drop; USA is not buying gold for same reasons???

In terms of currency, what am I missing?
TheStranger
(05/01/2000; 21:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 29726)
TownCrier
Crier...thanks for all the elevator music (are you kidding?).

I think, however, you are a little hasty in considering marks, francs, lire, etc. components of the euro in the same way that dimes and nickles comprise the dollar. You know as well as I do that previous attempts at a pan-european currency have failed. At the root of this failure is the same chief shortcoming that the euro has today. Namely, the nations involved have eleven different governments with eleven different economies and eleven different sets of priorities. As I have said before in these pages, as soon as a recession threatens which is unique to a single member, exception to the deficit spending limits will be sought by the government so-afflicted. As you know, this has already happened in the case of Italy. Perhaps just as plausibly, as soon as the government of one member causes the ire of its fellows (as recently happened with Austria for example), that country's membership may be jeopardized. These examples don't seem so farfetched when one considers they have already happened. And the euro is not yet 18 months old.

This is what I mean by a "loose confederation of...states". It is also why I have compared the euro's challenge to that of a three-legged race where all the other runners get to compete untethered. Success as a superior reserve currency to the dollar, as you suggest, may be possible, but it certainly won't be easy...particularly when survival alone isn't even assured.


Elwood
(05/01/2000; 23:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 29727)
TownCrier (05/01/00; 18:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29696)

I can't say I've ever been inspired by elevator music (due respect to elevator guy), but your comments here are appreciated in my home.
TownCrier
(05/02/2000; 01:50:54 MDT - Msg ID: 29728)
Burning the midnight oil here in The Tower to get the May on-line newsletter out to you fine folks...
http://www.usagold.com/NewGoldMarket.htmlSaw Sir lamprey_65's post (05/01/00; 20:30:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 29714)
---BEGIN quote--------------------
Anyone remember that quote from Greenspan?...something like 'Gold is the only real form of payment' or 'Gold is the payment of last resort' or something like that.

Have no doubt...central bankers do know the importance of gold...
---END quote----------------------
Everyone is encouraged to visit the Gilded Opinion link provided above. From her keynote speech at the DENVER GOLD GROUP Mining Investment Forum 1999 in Denver Colorado� October 1999, Miss Haruko Fukuda, CEO of the World Gold Council said:

"Gold is back with its customary charisma. I will tell you an amusing aside. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer may have thought he was getting rid of it. But as we speak today gold is being flown back to London in crates: Brinks Mat vans are busy delivering consignment stocks flown back from lying idle in all parts of the world to London, to the Bank of England and to other gold depositaries. Bullion banks need them for their liquidity.
+
"What greater affirmation can there be for gold as a monetary asset than the declaration by 15 of the world's largest gold holders that 'gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves'?"
[...]
"The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, said on 20th May to the House Banking Committee soon after Britain announced its decision to sell gold that (I quote) 'gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.' (End of quote)"
[...]
"Well-known, respected analysts have been saying "gold is finished", frequently misquoting John Maynard Keynes. Keynes, for instance, never wrote that gold is a "barbarous relic". What he wrote was (I quote): 'In truth, the gold standard is **already** a barbarous relic' (My **italics**; End of quote) - a very different concept. Keynes well understood the complexity and the multiplicity of the role of gold in economics."

[[TownCrier note: Indeed. Please see yesterday's post TownCrier (05/01/00; 18:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29696) where this statement was offered from The Tower for your consideration: "even as monetary evolution brought the "developing and lesser-developed world" [...] to turn away from their [own] old paper in favor of the [U.S.] variety that served their needs, one might say that they are now well-practiced and quite capable of doing it yet again when deemed prudent or advantageous. Again, I come back to evolution explaining the past and dictating the future. The T-Rex once had an impressive rule over the world, but is now only silent fleshless king of the fossil beds or else museum curiosities. Will the T-Bill somehow escape the same fate?
And like the dinosaur, whose flesh has failed while the bones endure, so it is with various monetary systems running the entire spectrum from the gold standard to pure fiat currency. New forms evolve to replace the old forms that fail when their contract/derivative "flesh" falls into decay. However, the bones...the gold...always endures to the new age. As such, the world's population knows many "bone collectors" who practice their "trade" throughout the good life and inevitable decay of their own national currency."]]

Miss Fukuda continues:

"Nobody really knows the extent of the supposed gigantic short positions that have built up over the recent years, possibly even posing a new threat of instability related to those gold derivatives. What does seem certain to me is that the dynamics of the gold derivative markets have changed dramatically as a result of the Washington Agreement limiting central bank lending. The World Gold Council some months ago commissioned a major study on the international market in gold derivatives which we believe will continue to play a significant role in bullion in the future. We expect to complete this study early next summer. With this and in other ways we strive for greater transparency and to encourage all those concerned to make a balanced assessment of the role of gold in our economies."
[...]
She concludes eloquently, "As the Millennium dawns, gold is poised on the threshold of a new era, promising as ever to bring excitement into our lives. Arousing always human passions, its mystique will never fade. As a Renaissance courtier counselled his ducal master 'Cherish the ancient, cherish the golden, you will not be an antiquarian but a man of gold.'"

And if that seems too whimsical, I shall end this twilight post on a practical note, quoting WGC East Asia Regional Director Albert Cheng:

"The lessons of the Asian economic and currency crisis have not been forgotten. During the first quarter of last year, there were people in Indonesia and other Asian countries who were only able to buy food and other necessities because they had some gold they could sell. I want to close today with just one example from a survey we conducted late last year in Indonesia. Mrs. Latiyem told our interviewer, and I quote: -----"I didn't have anything, that is why I sold my gold necklace to buy essentials. I bought things like coconut oil, soap and a paddy field. Once I have sold the rice, I may be able to buy back my gold with the profits."-----------
Mrs. Latiyem and anyone who has heard her story will not forget this powerful demonstration of gold's traditional role as a store of value and an asset of last resort."

Sir lamprey_65, this was a bit more than you asked for, but all good reading nonetheless to start the day.View Yesterday's Discussion.

ThaiGold
(05/02/2000; 02:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 29729)
Soaring Gold Exports & an Odd MayDay Pattern.
Possibly an important New Theory.......
...
..
5-02-2000
To: All

Yesterday, May 1st, I noticed an odd pattern in both
the Gold and Silver 24-hour charts:
Gold: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Silver: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

The usual pounding down of both, during COMEX hours
in New York was missing.!. Yet the day was *not* a holiday
in the USA. ie: Goldman Sachs, PPT, etc would be at
their usual desks.

But the day *was* a holiday in the London/European
markets. So those markets and bullion banks etc were
*not* at their usual desks.

Therefore, it would seem to imply that the massive short
selling daily upon COMEX, to slam down Gold and Silver
is originating in Europe. ie: Not the PPT nor Goldman
itself, who (I feel) just acts as their fiduciary agent
and broker. Goldman's short-selling customers are in Europe.!.

This tends to (I think) strengthen the New Theory that
I put forth into this Forum over the weekend, regarding
those extraordinarily large Gold Exports from the USA.

I'm going to clip/paste that post into here, now, because I
feel many of you may have missed seeing it, or grasping it's
possible significance. Let us have some discussion on
that new concept.

[paste-Quote]

ThaiGold (4/29/2000; 22:33:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29603)
Soaring Gold Exports: A New Theory
Attn: MK/USAGOLD (4/29/2000; 20:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29601)
===========================================================
To: MK/USAgold
To: ALL
Your post of USAGOLD (4/29/2000; 20:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29601)
contained the following excerpt, which I'd like to comment upon, to ALL
in the Forum:

[MK-Quote]
The most astonishing development reported here are the ones by TownCrier on gold
exports. Someone's taking delivery of all that gold and I don't think they're
complaining about the price. They're just taking delivery and getting ready to
ride out whatever storms might be headed our way. Who knows -- it might even be
Europeans taking delivery of that metal. It wouldn't surprise me -- for
Switzerland, it could amont to "in one door out the other." The only thing that
changes is the official numbers. Now wouldn't that be interesting?
[MK-UnQuote]

Myself, have a suspician that these soaring Gold Exports are nothing more
than Big-Oil Monies (US$ dollars) being converted into solid Gold, thru
the various (totally legal) mechanisms of the markets, COMEX etc etc etc,
that we and (sometimes) GATA may be misinterpretinmg as "Manipulation".

I mean, they have begun to soar, just as their (higher-priced) oil revenues
have soared of late and of previous times. Doesn't this sound plausible.?.
If we NutShell the "Oil-for-Gold" scenario(s) they boil down to:
(1)Oil Producer has Oil in-ground. Prefers to have Gold in Pocket.
(2)GoldMine Producer has Gold in-ground. Prefers to have US$ for Expenses.
(3)Big-Banks have US$ in Books. Prefers more. more. more.
(4)Oil/Bank/GoldMine go thru incredulous shenanigans to accomplish swap.
(5)Oil gets Gold direct from mine.
(6)GoldMine gets US$ direct from Bank.
(7)Bank gets more more more (interest and fees) from both plus principle.

Now then, if one looks at this simply, or even complexly, as Another or FOA
have, it boils down to alot of Gold *exported*, and alot of Oil *imported*. And
alot of -more-more-more (US$) circulating/expanding/loaning inside the Banks.
To wit: Money growth, inflation (TheStranger--are you absorbing this?) huge
oil imports and equally bloated Gold Exports.

In a very simple-minded (mine) scenario, wouldn't it be easiest for GoldHungry
oil-producers to (in many cases) just do the "exchange" via COMEX futures, and
take delivery, thru (legally) (maybe not-so-BadGuys-Goldman Sachs, et al) as
their prefered (big enuf) broker. With the CashStarved GoldMines being the
Opposite Parties to these massive Futures/forward contracts.

I have a hunch, that much of what we perceive as "manipulation" is simply the
(legal) market forces doing their thing. But there's another aspect that I
also believe is entering the big picture, that indeed IS manipulation:

Consider this: If YOU were an OilShiekah, with vast haordes of already-Gold
at hand, and you wished to buy (exchange US$ income revenue) even more of
your favorite flavor Gold Bars, wouldn't you (wisely):
(a) Use current vast-gold-reserves to "short" the markets, to:
(b) Drive the price of Gold even lower, then:
(c) Buy your next newest hoarde (periodically) at a much lower POG, after having
(d) Also closed out your "shorts" too, at your driven-down bottom target, and:
(e) Use Goldman Sachs (et al) as your legal/fiduciary/agent/broker, to:
(f) Make it look as if the US Govt aka ESF was the "manipulation" culprit.

Are we (irate/disappointed) GoldBugs perhaps seeing something that doesn't
really exist.?. Is GATA going to discover this misconception eventually, or
will several CongressPeople going to explain it to them, as they usher them
to the door. And as they do absoloutely n-o-t-h-i-n-g about GATA's and our
incessant accusations of unfair POG manipulation.?.

Please do not think me anti-GATA. I'm not. I welcome whatever they can do to
expose/thwart/stop the manipulation(s). But I'm a realist, and suspect that
the scenarios that we/they invision may not, probably don't, exist whatsoever.
Or, if they do exist, will be easily stonewalled/denied/covered up by the
entities that are (wink wink) (I did not have S...) up to their ..er...ears in
it for political/economic reasons. Hence, are unstoppable, by anyone.

These are my feeble thoughts on the issue, and I may repost mid week to perhaps
stimulate some in-depth anaylsis and discussion amongst the Forum.

[paste-UnQuote]

Cordially,
ThaiGold...
==========================================================
Comments Welcomed from anyone/anywhere/anytime.
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
===========================================================
TownCrier
(05/02/2000; 03:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 29730)
While on the subject of central banks and gold...
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk/I extend a 'Thank you' to Sir oldgold for alerting us to the fine commentary on the Washington Agreement from (Managing Director) Robert Pringle's Central Banking quarterly journal. Of interest, the article provides this review:

"The central bank's policy statement on gold is not only a landmark in the history of the gold market, but a significant and possibly hazardous move by the leading central banks that are either party to the agreement or have associated themselves with it. Some thoughtful observers feared that the central banks had not thought through the possible implications of their collective action: did they realise they had a tiger by the tail?"

[TownCrier note: Central bankers are not as reckless as all that. You can be sure they anticipated every angle where gold is concerned.]

"The agreement itself is quite rigid -- apparently making no allowance for the possibility that they might wish to expand lending to the market in particular circumstances, such as a lending operation for a bullion bank requiring liquidity."
[...]
[TC note: Do you have any remaining doubt that ongoing operations occur in which gold serves as a monetary asset in contracts instead of national currencies on a grand scale?]

"The market is likely to test the authorities persistently and relentlessly in the long run - both on the downside and the upside. The central banks� aim is clear enough. They want to avoid the value of one of their principal assets being determined by the activities of speculators and driven by market rumours, especially when uncertainty about the intentions of the central banks fuelled those rumours and when the central banks provide the liquidity which speculators used to drive down the price. In short, central banks are saying: **"gold will not become the plaything of the markets."**

And to finish this off with a Paul Harvey-esque "...The Rest of the Story" bit of drama, this article offers an interesting insight that nicely follows the comments we offered in our previous post by Miss Haruko Fukuda, specifiacally-----"I will tell you an amusing aside. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer [Gordon Brown] may have thought he was getting rid of it [via the highly publicized UK gold auctions]. But as we speak today gold is being flown back to London in crates: Brinks Mat vans are busy delivering consignment stocks flown back from lying idle in all parts of the world to London, to the Bank of England and to other gold depositaries. Bullion banks need them for their liquidity."------ [Rather makes one think again on our previous reports of massive gold exports over recent months from the U.S., doesn't it?]

Now, try to picture Paul Harvey wrapping up this tale by delivering the following lines from this Central Banking journal article:-------"The new agreement announced in Washington on September 26 is the first collective central bank action designed to affect the gold market since the ending of the London "gold pool" in 1968. [...] It is understood that Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England, played an active role in hammering out the details of the agreement."

So you see, Central Bankers (Mr. George included) uniquely know as few others can what power is held by gold alone, and they have announced the dawn of a new era for the yellow metal...though the market watchers remain slow to pick up on it's true significance. To say again, "Gold is not to be the "plaything" of the market." And now you know... the rest of the story.
HI - HAT
(05/02/2000; 04:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 29731)
ss of nep # 29663 Dialectic
Does the Council of Nicea result in the dynamic of:

Theses: Capitolism: Paganism

Antitheses: Communism: Christianity

Synthesis: Fascism: Feudalism
totalamateur
(05/02/2000; 04:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 29732)
The Green Paper Pig
"THE GREEN PAPER PIG"--A Dream of the Future of the Dollar!--

(Early this morning David awoke and related to me the following dream:) IT WAS SUMMER IN THE MIDEAST, and we were fleeing through this canyon or wadi where a stream flowed (I know now it was the Jordan River), towards some kind of sea or lake like the Dead Sea (which I know now it was) where we were to get on some boats to escape across to the other side. But then as a last resort, someone unleashed on us this big imaginary monster--a gigantic Green Pig--and he was huge, like a mechanical elephant or one of these mammoth monster-like parade balloons, and if you believed he existed he could destroy you! He was charging down the Jordan Valley, trampling on some people and devouring others, when I shouted at them: "He doesn't really exist! It's just in your mind! You must rebuke him and he'll go away!" So some of us turned as we were boarding the boats to leave, and just as he caught up with us I yelled again, "He doesn't exist! It's a matter of whether you believe it or not! It's only your faith in him that he exists that makes him real! Rebuke him in Jesus' name and he'll flee!"--And the minute we turned and faced him and challenged him and rebuked him in Jesus' name, he vanished just like that! (David snaps his fingers.) He was like the ultimate weapon, their last resort, to release this monstrous Green Pig!

2. AFTERWARD I WAS LYING HERE THINKING: "What is this funny dream! What does this strange dream mean, Lord?" I asked the Lord: "What is a green pig? That's ridiculous!" Then I thought to myself, "What is like a pig? Is it a nation? But what nation is like a pig? America? But why is he green? Does that mean he's young and new?" And then the answer came just as clear as anything: He's the American dollar!--The ultimate weapon in the Mideast is the American dollar, and if you believe in it, it will destroy you! But if you know it doesn't really exist, it vanishes! So I had told them, "It doesn't even exist! It's in your mind! It's your fear, your imagination! Resist it! Challenge it in Jesus' name!"--And, poof! It just evaporated! And that's the last I remember!

3. SO THE ULTIMATE WEAPON IS THE "GREENBACK" Pig!--The American dollar, or American "greenback," as they call it! Somehow they're using it against the rest of the world. It came charging down the Jordan Valley just like they'd turned him loose _________ (censored), and he came charging furiously at us, and was really trampling and devouring the stragglers, the people who were a little late in making up their minds. But when it got to where we were embarking in these boats, we just turned around and I screamed: "He doesn't even exist! Rebuke it in Jesus' name!"--And we all just turned around and resisted it in Jesus' name, and it vanished just like that!--The ultimate weapon! How about that?

4. WE MUST TELL THE WORLD THAT THEY MUST NOT FEAR THE AMERICAN DOLLAR! The Green pig is only a monster of the imagination! It only exists if you believe in it. If you resist it in the name of God, it evaporates and is no more! So he's very wise to put his money in gold, because the dollar is going to evaporate when the people lose faith in it, and it will be gone! The green pig gobbles everybody up that believes in it, and tramples everybody in the mud that thinks it exists! But for those who know it's just a monster of imagination, it vanishes!--It's nothing! The Green Pig is the American dollar!

5. I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ALL THIS WAS, and it came to me that the place where I saw the decision made to release the Green Pig was _____ (censored), and the small canyon with the river in the bottom was the Jordan! It had small low bluffs on both sides--it was the Jordan Valley, the Jordan canyon, and we were fleeing down from _____ (censored) to the Dead Sea where we were embarking on boats.--And it came to me we must have been going to Petra, fleeing to Petra, the world-famed Rock City in Jordan! But the decision to unleash the Green Pig, the ultimate weapon, was made at _____ (censored)!

6. SOMEONE IS MANIPULATING THE DOLLAR and using it as a weapon--the Green Pig--to try to destroy their enemies. Someone is behind the monetary crisis and they are using it to their own advantage to somehow try to destroy their enemies.--And if you believe in it, it will destroy you, but if you refuse to believe that it even exists, it completely evaporates and vanishes! It has no power over you at all. It is a monster of imagination! It only terrifies those who believe that it exists. It is the moneymakers' monster, and the Green Pig is just a tool in their hands.

7. AMERICA ITSELF IS LIKE A GREEN PIG, and the Green Pig is like America--huge and powerful and young and green and greedy, gluttonous, wasteful, selfish! But it only exists if you believe it exists, like its dollar, the "greenback," or the American dollar. It's like this Green Pig is the god of America, it is America's idol that they worship. It is not even as good as the golden calf, because it doesn't even exist! It is all in the imagination. But they worship it and they created it, and the moneymakers helped them to create it. But it is they that tell it which way to go. It is they who unleash it against their enemies, and it is they who control it, and they either harness it and support it, or they unleash it and send it charging against their enemies to devour them!

8. BUT IF YOU HAVE NO FAITH IN IT, and you take no stock in it, you don't believe in it, you don't worship it, and you rebuke it in the name of God, it just vanishes and evaporates! It has no power at all over you unless you're one of its worshippers. The moneymakers are its high priests and its priesthood, and it was created in their temples and they control it and they manipulate it as they will to their own advantage against their enemies.

9. SO YOU AND ALL THE WORLD MUST BEWARE OF THE DOLLAR! It is a moneymaker's creation--a Green Pig! It'll devour you and trample you to death in the mud and the mire if you believe in it and put your faith in it, if you trust in it! Because, whichever way it moves, it moves at their behest, at their direction, because they created it and they control it. But it only exists for those that believe in it. If you take no stock in it and have no faith in it and don't believe in it and you reject it, and if you refuse to accept it and you resist it because you know it doesn't exist, except according to men's faith in it and their imagination, if you challenge it in the name of God, it just goes pooof!--Like puff, the Magic Dragon! It totally evaporates! It has no power over you whatsoever if you don't believe in it. But those who believe in it will be destroyed by it!--It was their creation, their monster, and it is the figment of their imagination, but they use it to their own advantage. But if you'll reject it and refuse to believe in it, and you rebuke it in God's name, it vanishes and cannot even touch you!

10. THEY MUST NOT PUT THEIR FAITH IN THE DOLLAR. THEY MUST REBUKE THE GREEN PIG and he will vanish for he doesn't really exist except in the minds of men who accept him. You get all the words of David? You receive all the words of your Father? You must tell them to the people! "Beware of the Green Pig which the moneymakers have unleashed upon the world!" The money crisis, the dollar crisis is their creation and the decision to use it as the ultimate weapon was made at _____ (censored)! (He looks at grey sweater): It looks green, and I thought it was green! Then all of a sudden I realised it wasn't green!--It was all in my imagination! Like those that clothe themselves in dollars they think are green, they think they are alive and young and growing like the green things of the earth, but they shall find that this greenness only exists in their imagination, and when exposed to the light of day, the truth of God, it turns to grey ashes, burnt out fires, dead grey ashes!

11. THE AMERICAN DOLLARS ARE NO LONGER GREEN AND GROWING, BUT THEY HAVE TURNED TO GREY DEAD ASHES and they only look green if you're deceived thereby, only if you think that grey is green when green has really turned to grey! The Green Pig will turn to ashes, dead grey cold ashes, when the fire of faith is gone, and it will be burnt out and destroyed when the fire of the faith of men in it is gone! When the flame of faith in it has burnt out, all the dollars will be turned to ashes and burnt up, turned to worthless ashes! Oh my God, why don't they see that! Why does God's prophet have to tell them a simple little childish story? I have to warn the world, honey, of the words God gives, His wondrous words He gives to save them from this monstrous Green Pig--the American dollar they have unleashed on the world as their ultimate weapon to try to destroy their enemies!

12. AMERICA'S GREEN PAPER PIG DOESN'T EVEN EXIST--IT'S ONLY IN YOUR MIND--and only if you believe in it! It's a figment of your imagination! If it's your image, if it's the image of your nation--your image-nation, your imagination, the image of your nation, and you worship it and you believe in it and you hold on to it, it will destroy you! But if you rebuke it and defy it in the name of God, it has no power over you! It totally vanishes--just evaporates! As they unleashed it at ________ (censored) and it came charging down the Jordan Valley toward us while we were escaping in these boats at the Dead Sea, it was destroying everything in its path till we turned and rebuked it and resisted it and I shouted to them, "It doesn't exist! Rebuke it! Resist it and it will flee from you!"--And we did, and Puff, the Magic Dragon vanished!--Puff, the Magic Dragon crashed!

13. THE WEST IS THE STRONGHOLD OF THE MAGIC DRAGON--THE DREAM PIG! I'm not afraid of the Magic Dragon! I'm not afraid of the Green Pig! But we were leaving and embarking on boats across the Sea. If their faith in the Pig is very strong, then the Pig is very strong. It really exists for those who believe it exists. For those who worship it, it not only exists but it is their god, and it rules over them and controls them and devours them and destroys them, because they worship other gods and they worship the Green Pig--the ultimate abomination, the abomination of desolation which brings desolation and abomination to all who believe in it! The Green Pig is an abomination of desolation sacrificed on the sacred altar by its moneymakers!

14. BUT IT IS AN ABOMINATION TO GOD--the Green Pig, the American dollar! It is a pollution!--It is pollution! It pollutes the whole world worse than any other pollution, because it pollutes the hearts and minds of men and captures their bodies and destroys their souls and devours them and gobbles them up--the Green Pig! It is a marvel and powerful and wondrous and mighty to those who believe in it!--But it is nothing, it is not even weak to those who know it doesn't even exist!--It's nothing!--It evaporates into thin air! If you resist it and rebuke it, it will flee from you and vanish!

15. THE GREEN PIG--THE AMERICAN DOLLAR THAT DEVOURS AND DESTROYS SO MANY! It is controlled by the moneymakers! They released it against their enemies and the world, but we will help the world to resist it, to rebuke it and defy it and know that it doesn't exist except in the minds and imaginations of money men! If you know it doesn't exist, that the Green Pig, the American dollar, is a lie, a figment of the imagination and a creation of the money men, if you rebuke it, resist it and defy it and tell it it is a liar, it'll vanish and evaporate and have absolutely no power over you whatsoever! It just goes Puff, the Magic Dragon! Puff, the Magic Dragon is a pipe dream dreamed up by the money men!

16. WHAT DOES THE WORD "DOLLAR" MEAN? There was no such thing as the American dollar until it was dreamed up by Washington! What does it mean? There's something strange about that word dollar! The dollar has the whole world in the doldrums! The world, who's been beating the drums to the dollar, is now in the doldrums because of its false worship of its fallen idol, which is what they deserve! For they created to themselves idols of gold and idols of silver, and now their final idol is an idol of paper--a paper tiger!--Sickening, greedy, gluttonous, Green Pig, the dollar! You see?--Now you see it, and now you don't!--Depends on whether you believe it or not. The Green Pig--the moneymakers' joke!--The American dollar! What a joke on the world by the money jerks! They are going to jerk their joke out from under them--the German joke that comes from Joachim's dale, or thalle, a gorge with a river like the Jordan Valley! The obsolete German coin or thaller is going to become the obsolete American dollar!--Joachim's dollars, joke'em!

17. THE GREEN PIG--THE CREATION OF THE MONEY MEN! The worshippers of the dollar have been deceived by their own priests! They are now deceived and destroyed by their own creation! The deceivers are themselves deceived by their own deception in which they believed--the Green Pig--the American dollar! It shall return upon their own heads, and it shall turn upon them and rend them and trample them underfoot because they have cast their pearls unto the swine--and the truth unto dogs!--How they travestied to create their Green Pig, not even a golden calf! The laws of God have they cast down and broken! They have not even created a golden calf this time, but only a Green Paper Pig!

18. THE AMERICAN DOLLAR--A GREEN PAPER PIG WHICH WILL DEVOUR AND DESTROY YOU IF YOU LET IT and believe in it and accept it, but which will vanish and evaporate into the nothing that it is if you refuse it and rebuke it and don't believe in it, don't take it, don't accept the Green Pig, refuse the Green Pig, challenge it, defy it, rebuke it! He'll not only flee from you but he'll completely vanish, because he is not! He's a figment of men's imaginations: The Green Paper Pig! Hurry, honey, we have to get these words to the waiting world! We have to hurry! Honey, you won't forget about warning the world about the Green Pig, OK?

19. IN THOSE DREAMS NOTHING IS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANCE. I was praying about why the Green Pig was running down the Jordan Valley and caught up with us at the Dead Sea. It lost its power when it arrived at the Dead Sea and we confronted it. It was like the Dead Sea, lowest spot on Earth, symbolises the end.--The Green Pig could go no farther or lower, and there it vanished from the earth at our rebuke! The Jordan River is a living river and it gives life and flows and waters and feeds until it gets to the Dead Sea, and there those waters, like Lot's wife, turn to salt and become dead and can no longer go anywhere or do anything. They've stagnated. They've reached the end and they no longer seem good for anything--like the dollar, the Green Paper Pig! And the pig was following the course of the Jordan, which also symbolises crisis and death till he reached his end at the Dead Sea, and that's where we destroyed it by defying it and denouncing it and it couldn't stand exposure! The minute all the people looked at it and heard that it was only in their imagination, it just vanished! The minute they heard it was just an imaginary pig, it vanished!

20. WHEN A CURRENCY COMES TO ITS END AND BECOMES WORTHLESS, AS IN GERMANY AFTER WORLD WAR I, only things of real value, material things of actual usefulness and necessities, become negotiable, and a system of bartering or trading of goods instead of money arises. When the currency dies, men return to the age-old system of trading physical and material necessities. So that people trade things they have and produce for things that they need, such as the farmers would trade the foodstuff they produced for the tools and manufactured items they needed, and the industrial communities or tradesmen who make things would trade them for the farmers' food and the goods that they need.

21. SO THAT IN GERMANY, JUST BEFORE HITLER, THE MARK HAD BECOME SO WORTHLESS that the government was printing billion-Mark notes, which were still not worth much, and each city and town and area began printing its own currency, or spurious currency, in which each government tried to inspire the faith of the people as a medium of exchange, because it was a little difficult without it. If you wanted to go to the theatre you had to take so many eggs or a hen for admission! It was not only difficult for the customers, but imagine the problems of the management in trying to find a place to store all these things! One story is told of the two women who went shopping with a whole laundry basket full of German Marks, to show you how worthless the Marks were!--And as if that wasn't bad enough, when they weren't looking, somebody dumped all the Marks out of the basket, left the Marks on the sidewalk, and ran off with the basket!

22. SO WHEN THE DOLLAR, WHICH HAS IN EFFECT BEEN THE WORLD'S INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY, COMES TO ITS END, WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE? Gold has kept its value very well, and in fact, in relation to the dollar, it is now worth about four times as much as it was back in the thirties! In other words, the dollar is worth only about one-fourth of what it was 40 years ago! It's been dropping nearly 20 percent in value every ten years or about 2 percent a year!

23. BUT WHAT IS GOLD GOOD FOR NOW in actual material necessities and how valuable is it today? For many ages gold has been much sought after as a useful, but particularly as a very decorative, metal, so it became an extremely precious metal sought by the rich for their tableware and their various metallic decorative materials, etc. But today it is not sought after so much for those old-fashioned luxuries, and is not even as much in demand for things like gold watches and jewelry. But it has become increasingly in demand as a vital part of the electronic systems of many of these new scientific gadgets!

24. THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE PRICE OF GOLD HAS GONE UP, because it is still very much in demand and extremely necessary for the circuitry of electronic devices. One reason that TV sets cost so much for example, or even your little transistorized radios, is because gold is used extensively in these, as it is one of the world's best conductors of electricity! Amazing isn't it, that God made gold so useful and necessary, from ancient times to the present, as well as beautiful and attractive! God has always put considerable value on gold in the Scriptures, some on silver, but mostly on gold. But He does say that there will even come a day when gold and silver will be less valuable and as common as the rocks in the streets, which may be the Millennium or thereafter because of the loss of the need of all these gadgets and scientific contraptions, as well as the loss of the need of a monetary standard, or metals for mere decoration. Nevertheless, gold has kept its value over all these centuries and really better than anything else outside of actual real estate.

25. ONE REASON FOR THE REAL ESTATE BOOM IS THAT WHEN PEOPLE BEGIN TO LOSE FAITH IN THEIR MONEY, currency and banking accounts, they begin exchanging their money for things of actual useful value. They can't help but see from history that the value of money is constantly going down, because these are no longer the secrets of the rich and high finance, but they are common knowledge of the general public and the man on the street. He knows that the value of his money is deteriorating every day through what is called inflation. As the prices go up, his wages never rise as fast as the prices since the owners, manipulators and managers of money are the ones who control both wages and prices. Therefore the rich always see to it that their prices rise faster than the wages of their wage slaves!

26. SO THE BIG AND POWERFUL LABOUR UNIONS NOW INSIST THAT TO EVERY NEW CONTRACT there be attached the proviso that their wages will automatically be raised according to the cost of living, which is known by the cost of living index.--Periodically the wages of the labourers of certain industries who have made these very wise contracts, will be raised by exactly the same percentage as the rise in the cost of living: Or in other words, according to the deflation of their money caused by the inflation in prices. So some labour has gotten pretty smart on this issue!

27. NEVERTHELESS, LABOUR NEVER SEEMS TO BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE COST OF LIVING no matter how hard they try. Because, if you're a manufacturing owner or manager or a money manipulator, it is much easier for you to manipulate your prices and money, most of which is simply done on paper, than it is for the poor lowly labourer to try to get a raise in his wages from the industrial managers and money manipulators who are in control of wealth and the sources of wealth and power and the sources of power and government and are usually much richer, more powerful, better educated and smarter than the poor average working man.

28. BUT LATELY, EVEN THE MONEY MANIPULATORS HAVE BEEN LETTING THINGS GET A LITTLE OUT OF HAND and out of their control, and they haven't seemed to quite understand why their money matters are getting in such a bad way because of the sudden fall of their god the dollar upon which they base their values and currencies and their rates of exchange even from one currency to another in foreign countries throughout the world. When you go to a bank to exchange one foreign currency for another, you will usually find that on the little exchange slip or receipt they give you as a record of the transaction, first is listed the amount and the kind of currency which you gave them, then its value in dollars, believe it or not, and then finally its value in the local currency for which you are exchanging it!

29. SO THE GOD DOLLAR--THE GREEN PIG--HAS BEEN THE WORLD-WIDE STANDARD OF VALUE and of monetary exchange since most of the world went off the gold standard, and, subsequently, the silver standard! In other words, the U.S. got so strong and so smart and rich and powerful that even after it was no longer willing to give you either gold or silver in exchange for your paper dollars, the value and power of that paper dollar held its value and power of exchange in the minds of the people by their faith in the American government and its people and its power! So that the dollar held its own for a long time after its actual value in gold or silver was gone!

30. IT HAS TAKEN THE WORLD 40 YEARS AND A LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN AMERICA and its government to finally wake the world to the fact that the dollar is actually worth very little, if anything, and it is only worth to them as much as their faith says it is worth! And since they've lost faith in the American government, they are no longer willing to believe what it is worth, what America says it is worth. The dollar has been coasting along on its own momentum for several decades due to the power and wealth of America and the world's faith in the American government and its word that the dollar was worth something. But now that the world is beginning to awaken to the fact that it was only by faith that the dollar was worth anything, they've lost that faith in America and its word, and the dollar has lost its value.

31. TO GIVE YOU A LITERAL ILLUSTRATION OF HOW THIS HAPPENS: A recent plunge in the value of the dollar was caused by the world's loss of faith in the Nixon Administration and its veracity and credibility because of its many lies, deceits, political intrigue and cover-ups. So, as the world lost faith in America's Nixon Administration, it also lost faith in America's money! Because, since faith in money is based on faith in the government that produces that money, and in that government's word that says it is worth so much, then the people no longer believe either in that government nor its word nor its money when they lose faith in it!

32. THEREFORE, THE MONEY LOSES ITS BELIEVED ACTUAL OR SUPPOSED INTRINSIC VALUE and its professed and recognised value as a medium of exchange at its former rate of exchange in almost exact proportion to the people's loss of faith in it! In other words, paper money is only worth what people believe it is worth! They have to have faith in it, believe in it and be willing to accept it as a valuable and negotiable medium of exchange. Otherwise, wheieǽ b--Šg time they �"�unwind. Just my $.02.


Leigh
totalamateur
No offense to you personally, but that pig story's getting a little stale. Isn't this the THIRD time you've posted it??
ss of nep
HI - HAT (5/2/2000; 4:04:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 29731)

I currently think the Synthesis ( Dialectic result / compromise ) of the Dialectic process of the Council of Nicea, was the establishment of the Church of Rome.

The Church of Rome being a compromise among several different beliefs held throughout the degenerating Roman Empire at the time, Constantine wanted a cohesive empire and sought it via establishment of the catholic( = universal ) belief system.

Those that did not adopt the new belief system were systematically eliminated.


Shortly thereafter the records contained in the library at Alexandria were destroyed and the so called Dark Ages began.




ss of nep
There is nothing new uder the sun
http://etherzone.com/farr092099.html
A quote from the above link


"The next third waver to build on Plato's plan was modern Communism's hired hack and egotist founder, Karl Marx - who stole all of Plato's Republic into his supposed "original" plan for a utopia, added another borrowed twist from Hegel's Godless dialectic view of history, mixed Aristotle's quantum leap view of evolution, and then through in Plato's idea that the strong rule and create laws and morals which perpetuate their wealth, and dared to call it all a new and unique theory. It wasn't. It was strictly cut and paste.
"


SteveH
Hypocrisy
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_dougherty/20000430_xnjdo_judges_wit.shtmlIn the book Unintended Consequeces by John Ross, the author spoke of government officials all being allowed to carry concealed weapons, pointing out that ordinary citizens were unarmed while the government was armed. Here is a link that shows Mr. Ross wasn't far from the truth. If judges can carry nationally, so should law-abiding citizens.

snippet:

"On its face, it's just another bill designed to place federal officials above the 'little people,'" Schultz told WorldNetDaily. "How can a federal judge carrying a concealed weapon make a ruling in a gun case against some guy who didn't have a permit but was trying to protect himself -- just like the judge -- under the guise of the Second Amendment?"

If the bill passes as is, Schultz said


Black Blade
Morning Wakeup Call
Source: Bridge NewsSNB begins gold sales, to sell up to 120 tonnes by end-Sep

Frankfurt--May 2--The Swiss National Bank began its gold sales Monday and intends to put a maximum of 120 tonnes of gold on the market by the end of September, the SNB said Tuesday. This is the first tranche of a program of sales totaling 1,300 tonnes of gold, the SNB said, adding that it has commissioned the Bank for International Settlements to sell the first tranche. (Story .11236)

Black Blade: Well now, it's begun. We'll see how the markets react, so far - so good.

Berkshire vice chairman hints Berkshire still holds silver

Omaha, Neb.--Apr 29--Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger Saturday raised the long-dormant speculation that the investment vehicle still maintains holdings in silver. In answer to a shareholder question, Munger said he could not think of any reasons to own gold currently. Munger also stated his support for Microsoft's position following the Justice Department's decision Friday to split the computer software company in two. (Story .12145)

Black Blade: Gold no, silver yes, and against splitting MSFT into "Baby Bills". Does Warren concur? Hmmmm���

India's govt said to be considering a precious metals exchange

Hong Kong--May 2--The Indian government, one of the world's major gold and silver buyers, is considering setting up a precious metals exchange, Riaz Patel, a director of India's transportation and precious metals trading group Natar Holdings told Bridge News late Friday. He added the government told Natar Holdings, which has been lobbying for the setting up of the exchange, that it would start preparation work for the new exchange after the company demonstrates that it has recruited sufficient members to take part in trading. (Story .11439)

Black Blade: This could be good. Do they still require a hefty tax on Au purchases? Anyway possibly greater access to the Indian public. Possible drought conditions could affect harvest and result in lower Au purchases? We'll see.

SteveH
SNB
As suspected and hypothesized, the BIS is handling the SNB sale of gold. It was further thought that if the BIS did this, this gold will NEVER see the market. It is inter-bank transfer, not selling to the public. Concur?
Black Blade
SteveH
Definitely a transfer. likely just some book keeping to clear up Gold loans (sales?). Definitely concur. This gold will never see the light of day, but the question is how the markets will react as the pundits put their usual spin on it.
TownCrier
Hear ye! Hear ye! The Week in Gold has been updated!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlIt is that time of the week, and we are once again pleased to be able to share the World Gold Council's weekly gold market commentary with our family of visitors. Of note in this week's report is the following review of GFMS data:

"The release of the annual gold survey from industry analysts Gold Fields Mineral Services on Wednesday kept gold under pressure. GFMS suggested that prices above $300 were unsustainable in the continued absence of genuine investor demand. The lack of such demand was the main reason why price surges above $300 an ounce in September 1999 and February this year were not sustained, the consultants said. These comments triggered some speculative selling on the Comex, driving prices down to the lowest levels seen this year. However, GFMS went on to say that a price below $250 an ounce would be equally unsustainable unless central banks and private holders of gold were prepared to sell and lend more metal at lower prices, something that did not happen last year. GFMS added that continued Asian economic recovery, coupled with a world GDP growth of around 4.2%, should encourage robust physical gold demand this year."

Two (counter)points: GFMS seems content to discount the notion that an international or even local currency "dynanmic" could easily make physical gold attractive in any given nation at any given (higher) price. Further, the pricing mechanism should be more properly conveyed by GFMS (rather than confusing it with physical demand), as I offer in the following amendment within the parentheses:
"GFMS suggested that prices above $300 were unsustainable in the continued absence of genuine investor demand [for gold futures contracts.] The lack of such demand [for the paper gold derivatives used by the marketplace for price discovery] was the main reason why price surges above $300 an ounce in September 1999 and February this year were not sustained, the consultants said."

They do, however, hit near the mark with the comment that low prices are "unsustainable unless central banks and private holders of gold were prepared to sell and lend more metal at lower prices, something that did not happen last year." As it is, the low price can only be maintained as long as most gold market players remain content to hold derivatives instead of the real thing, and further, that enough gold flows from "weak hands" to satisfy the international demands upon the physical market. Please refer to our earlier post today on central banks and the Washington Agreement to form your own conclusion as to the official sector's changing policy toward their historical tolerance or even support of past value-suppressing gold market operations.
Ulysses
ThaiGold-Comex
http://www.usagold.comI think you're right. The Rothschilds, et al, are slamming it so that they can pick up the physical more cheaply.
Topaz
BB-SteveH
OK- Let's see!
Run US$ up last week --- (Euro down, Gold down)
Sell Au US$272ish, convert to Euros (300+)
Swiss NB happy!

Tank US$ between now and May23 (Euro up, Au up)
BoE auction comes in high US280's (Euros 300+)
POM's happy!

"THE BEAT GOES ON"

But it can't go on forever- can it?

Cavan Man
Black Blade 29737
SNB vis a vis BIS! Well, thats "Another" confirmation.

Thank you FOA. Thank you Reg Howe.
Topaz
"Mad Dog runs AMOK"
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html
Now there's a sight for sore eye's!
Henri
Town Crier
Your tapestry is one of exceptional beauty end intricate design. Keep weaving the end result is "priceless" like gold itself
Henri
Euro play...US$ but a tool
It occurs to me that if the ECB knows the euro will eventually be the new reserve currency there is the problem of all those d*mn US$ denominated notes floating all over the place. If I had them and wanted to exchange them for Euro denominated assets would I intervene at this point and support the euro? No I would use the temporary and artificially high valuation of the US$ to buy value priced Euro denominated assets. Duh! Buy low, sell high. Beautiful in its simplicity, no?
Henri
and what's more valuable
Gold! why use US$ to buy Euro assets when the rest of the world will do that. What they want and need is more gold. Buy in the US with US$ and get rid of them once and for all. Buying back stuff they own already doesn't really help them now does it? We should follow in the footseps of giants. Buy gold!
WilloTheWarthog
Euro (opinion from other side of the pond)
http://www.berlinonline.de/wirtschaft/.html/dpa_w3_adn419_4_0205_0502153700.html02/05/00 15:37
HypoVereinsbank justifies Euro-expiry with Speculation

Munich/Mainz (ADX). A reason to the concern is not for the HypoVereinsbank the sinking euro-rate. That applies however only to the economic basic data, because the political damage by the reputation loss of the European currency is enormous, indicated the HypoVereinsbank on Tuesday in Munich. In an analysis the experts follow the reasons for the crash of the euro since its introduction. About one thing the analyst is sure: The euro is totally undervalued.
WilloTheWarthog
Euro (from Le Monde)
http://finance.lemonde.fr/detail-actualite.phtml?id=42421The most catastrophic scenario would be that same Europeans them do not rely any more on their currency in which case, one sees badly how Euro could be essential like an international currency and especially a currency of reserve. This is why the authorities will not be able indefinitely to let spin Euro even if the effectiveness of the interventions of the central banks on the foreign exchange market still remains to be proven (the Bank of Japan mobilized several tens of billion dollars to stop the rise of the Yen without much success). Paradoxically, the fundamental ones continue to improve on the Old Continent as underlines it the rise of 1,2% of the industrial production in February within the Union (+5,5% over one year) and the fall sensitive of unemployment in France to March (- 2% for a rate brought back to 10%). But Europe is still far from competing with the growth rates displayed by the United States since the American GDP is arisen in rise of 5,4% in the first quarter after a record of +7,3% in the fourth quarter 1999. The differential of growth, although in fall, thus pleads always in favour of the Dollar.
WilloTheWarthog
Swiss Gold Sales (Beline-Online)
http://www.berlinonline.de/wirtschaft/.html/dpa_w3_afp72_4_0205_0502133900.html02,05,00, 13:39
Switzerland Sells half of their gold reserves

Franc's Gold Backing of Franc Finally Removed

Berne, 2 May (AFP) - after the final removal of the gold backing Switzerland half of their gold reserves will sell. In the coming five years 1290 tons of the precious metal nationally held on the international markets would be sold, indicated Swiss central bank on Tuesday in Berne. Until at the end of of Septembers 120 tons should come on the market. With the sales the bank for international clearing payment (BIZ) was entrusted. The announcement of Swiss central bank left the gold price on the international markets first almost unchanged. The central bank stressed, the gold sales is co-ordinated with the central banks 15 further countries, in order to avoid strong exchange rate fluctuations.
ss of nep
correspondence -
VAR = Value At RiskLast week I sent the following to a guy I know who teaches at McMaster ( Hamilton, Ont. )
- - - -

This site may be of interest to you

http://pw1.netcom.com/~ntaleb/


Exerpt:

Recent Technical Work ~
~Dynamic Hedging and Volatility Expectation. Its previous title was On the Biases in Rational Expectations Tests of Volatility (Chapter 5 of Option Replication and Market Structure)
~The Faux Problem of Dynamic Hedging
Twenty Five Years: The Ought Became the Is . 25th year of the Black -Scholes-Merton option pricing formula.
Regime Switching Processes, Finance, and the Problem of Induction (forthcoming).


- - - -

I got the following response this morning

- - - -

Thanks for the VAR links. It's a hot topic these days due to mark to
market rules imposed by BIS regulations.

It's nice to hear from you. I hope everything is going well.

I just returned from the Derivatives Securities Conference in Boston.
Check out "management.bu.edu/exec/dsc/index.html". The URL has links to
past speakers at the Math Finance Day, which follows the conference.

Robert Merton was there this year and last year. He along with Myron
Scholes were featured in a NOVA program on the topic called the "Trillion
Dollar Bet". The program described the computer trading the was used by
LTCM to implement the financial mathematics algoithms. Unfortunately, they
got a little ambitious and lost over 3 billion dollars.

- - - -


ss of nep
Wonder what he meant by ...

mark to market rules imposed by BIS regulations.

- - - - -

I guess I'll find out if he responds to that Question within the next day or so.



USAGOLD
Today's Report: Why Today's Swiss Announement Might Be a Positive for the Gold Market
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/2/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
276.90
+2.10
Silver July Comex
5.08
nc
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
96~05
-0~10
Dollar Index June NYBOT
109.38
+0.29

Market Report (5/2/00): Gold reacted to this morning's details of the Swiss gold sales
announcement with a solid gain. The Swiss National Bank will sell 120 tons of gold by the end of
September through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European based central bank
for central bankers.

The Swiss have repeatedly stated that the sales would be conducted in a manner that would not
undermine the price, and many in the gold trading arena believe that the BIS will spoon-feed the
gold into the market, or even simply bridge the metal across to other central banks who are in the
acquisition mode. It appears that the Swiss have remained true to their word and the market reacted
favorably.

Of the 2000 tons in gold sales agreed upon by the world's central bankers in the Washington
Agreement, the Swiss will sell 1300 tons via the methods described today, the Dutch** will sell
100 tons this year and another 200 tons over the remaining four years of the accord, and the
United Kingdom will sell 365 tons. That leaves a meager 35 tons unaccounted for and rumor has it
that Belgium has already taken up that slot though no announcement had been made.

In other words, the gold market can revel, or mourn, (depending on one's position or trading
book) the passing of an era. There will be precious little in the way of official-sector surprises over
the next four years -- a bullish backdrop that it is sure to alter thinking in certain sectors. The gold
bears will now point to the leasing of gold as the main depressant to the price, but one has to
balance that thinking with the realization that if the central banks are going to all this trouble to
buttress one of their chief assets through the regulation of sales, they are unlikely to undermine
that policy through lease/hedging activity.

The Swiss announcement in future years may be looked back upon as a culminating event. It very
much reminds me of the situation in the early-mid 1970s when both the United States and IMF
conducted gold sales in what became an aborted attempt to keep gold in the $100 to $150 range.
Once all the potential sales energy became known, the price trended up even as the sales were
conducted with willing buyers standing in line to get the metal. Here again, all the major sellers are
known and committed to a publicly known program. All the news is not out and on balance, it
looks favorable fundamentally for the yellow metal given the consistently strong demand for the
metal worldwide.

In response, short-sellers in both Asia and Europe began covering positions overnight pushing the
yellow to higher ground. New York opened on sound footing and in the coming days we will see
whether or not the Swiss sales announcement signals that we've already put in a major bottom in
the gold market.

**according to an article in The Alchemist (April 2000 issue) by Jos R. Heuvelman of the Dutch
Central Bank.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.
Cavan Man
CM Anniversary
This month is my first anniversay as a "clear thinking" gold bug. Having absorbed an initial two weeks of forum content etc., I could not sleep soundly until I bought some gold from MK. I had many doubts continuing for 6-9 months thereafter. Today, no doubts remain.

Many thanks to MK, FOA, Aristotle, ORO, The Stranger, SteveH, Farfel, Solomon Weaver, Peter Asher, and the many others here too numerable to mention who have helped along the trail.

For those new to the subject and perhaps doubting the veracity of the solid convictions expressed in the content here I offer the following bit of wisdom from Francis Bacon:

"The sinews of wisdom are slowness of belief and distrust....The entry of doubts are as so many suckers or sponges to draw use of knowledge. If a man will begin in certainties he will end in doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties."
lamprey_65
Interesting Post on Kitco
Allen over at Kitco thinks the Swiss are de-linking their currency from gold because they expect the metal to ramp much higher...this would boost the currency to such an extent that exports would dwindle and the economy would suffer. Interesting theory -- I never did understand why the Swiss, of all people, would want to de-link...any thoughts on this?
lamprey_65
In addition
Could it be that the Swiss were leasing gold to cap its move, thus keeping their currency from getting too strong?...and now part of the reason to sell is to cover these leased positions? (Not sure how that would work) Maybe they've given up on the capping idea and decided to de-link? Who knows.
ss of nep
Response to ?
ss of nep (05/02/00; 09:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29753)

> What is it you are referring to with the statement
> "mark to market rules imposed by BIS regulations." ?

BIS = Bank for International Settlements
( governs the rules for international lending between banks )

>
> What is it that is being "marked to market" ?
Some securities such as bonds and options have values that fluctuate with
changes in interest rates and stock prices. Marking to Market means using
a mathematical model to determine the value of these securities. This
computation has to be done on a daily basis.

VAR is the size of the loss that occurs no more that 95% of the time.
Banks have to allocate capital to cover losses based on the VAR estimate.
See the web site for J.P. Morgan and look for a downloadable report called
Riskmetrics. This report describes the mathematics involved in determining
VAR.



Knallgold
@YGM
Thanks for for updating the "June rumour"!
Any further news you post will be greatly appreciated!

On the Swiss sale,they might lead us to something:

"..The SNB will publish the results of its gold sales on its
thrice-monthly bank-return reports, the bank's chief spokesman,Werner Abegg, said. May's three releases are scheduled for tomorrow, the 11th and the 22nd. .."

Will we see prices above spot (as FOA suggested)?????

A side note: Switzerland has a vote on the "Bilaterale Vertr�ge" with the EU on May 21. This will clear our relation to the European Union as we are neither member nor joined the EWR (european economic area) in 1992.A yes is expected.What has it to do with Gold?I don't know,but it is before June...
YGM
Knallgold....
Technicolor Rumor (dream come true?)...FWIW------The Peruvian Official also said he was told that once Gold starts to go, that the upswing would continue for SIX YEARS! Well, I say if you're going to dream, go for technicolor.....Lets hope this guy really knows what we don't.....I will post the next conversation when it occurs......Far-Fetched or "NOT"......YGM.
Knallgold
YGM
Would be 2006-I thought it would take at least 10 years to clear all Gold deficits.
A bad thought: 6 years mine production would give,lets say 15'000 t.The famous short position,ha,if they can get all of the Gold through nationalisation...
Cavan Man
YGM, Knallgold
Do you recall FOA saying the last five years would have been a period to acquire; that the next five years will be a time for the price to rise and that at the end of those (five) years, "we will spend some of our gold". This post is either at the TG page or in the Q1 USAGOLD archives.

Can anyone help with this?
Cavan Man
Solomon Weaver
Thanks. I took your advice and contacted Rosie Moore at PAAS. Having only partially digested the information provide about ag, I am shocked the price is so low.

I believe you are right!
Gandalf the White
Don't look now -- BUT XAU is on a BREAKOUT !
Up over 7.6% on the day and pushing to break 60.
<;-)
YGM
Knallgold & Cavan Man....
Nationalization was touched upon by FOA in a response to a question of mine long ago......I believe he thought that it may be in the cards but far in the future...? I really don't recall.....

Cavan Man...I recalll the lines but not the time frame..... ......last fall???...........
SteveH
Well, gold is showing some life, but
the XAU has shown lots of life with GOLD (symbol) up last report 50%. I believe XAU close at 61 today, up over 5. Something is afoot. Standby...

Gandalf, Peter, CM, Stranger, all, you folks awake? I know you are Gandalf (saw your post). Yee...hah!

Duck and Dow down, S&P too.

Heard of a bank today that is 50% off its last year sales-of-mortgages rate.

SteveH
Oh...and oil futures, they are...
up over $1.00 today too!
YGM
Any Bets....
The Sydney Open...sees a sharp spike....GO GOLD>>>>
Man there's Gold stocks out there up 20/30/50% today alone and the Goldman crowd having bloody fits...Good on em!........Go GATA.
SteveH
Oh...and oil futures, they are...
up over $1.00 today too!
Cavan Man
YGM
Yes, he did but I am not sure about his "time frame". If the POG does leap, most here understand there will be collateral damage to those betting on the wrong side of the fence. In that case, beware at least some stocks. If the price does begin to jump, follow the market closely and be prepared for any eventuality. This truly is not a market for gold or any other asset class we have seen before.
Cavan Man
SteveH
WOW! My GOLD took off today. Thanks for the "heads up". You know why that is encouraging. Perhaps the buyers today are looking at a rise in POG.
Leigh
Cavan Man
"This truly is not a market for gold...." I'm mixed up about what you mean! Could you explain?
TownCrier
Lady Leigh, it looks like Sir Cavan Man was saying this...
"This truly is not a market (for gold or any other asset class) [like any] we have seen before."

Cavan Man
Town Crier & Leigh
You make me laugh Ha! I got carried away--too much irrational exuberance you know. :)
TownCrier
Poor journalism...this is what we are up against in the quest for truth
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/000502/switzerlan_1.htmlIn this Associated Press article explaining the basic mechanics of the Swiss allocations to be arranged through the BIS, the AP reporter for no apparent reason includes this line out of the blue among his/her concluding commentary:

"Britain and the International Monetary Fund also have moved to sell off part of their gold reserves."

What agenda is being served by mention of the Brit sales as though it were a separate element not within the limits of the Washington Agreement which the reporter had just finsished describing? And further, the comment regarding IMF selling of gold reserves could NOT be further from the truth. As anyone who follows the news here knows quite well, the IMF has had to throw in the towel on their past fiction that gold's value could be left ignored. As such, they have already begun to mark some of their gold to market valuations in a round-about bookkeeping process that leaves the gold safely in their vaults, but that creates an addtional account with the BIS representing the gold's market value, even as the IMF maintains the book value of SDR 35.
Leigh
Town Crier and Cavan Man
OK.
Hill Billy Mitchell
Perspective
It occurred to how comical we gold bugs are. A week or so ago I was in the mood for gold to make it's move. Now I find myself in a pickle. Yesterday locked in 100 ounces of gold eagles for someone else when the spot hit $274. Now I find myself hanging out in never never land because I cannot replace my holdings until Thursday do to a little quirk in my cash and wiring arrangements. I find myself hoping that the price will stay down until at least Thursday afternoon so that when I replace my holdings I will not lose ground.

It depends on your perspective when it comes to these short term movements in POG. Of course my perspective has not waivered since about 1995 concerning the long haul.I am and have been in it for the long haul. The longer the haul the more of the hard stuff I will be able to accumulate.

On Friday I will be back in the position of a normal die-hard gold bug. I will take heart when short-term movements push the price of gold up and feel a little gloomy to see it push the price of gold down, all the while with mixed emotions because when the big one comes I will no longer be able to contentedly accumulate. At some point when accumulation is over for us gold bugs there will be a time to sell a portion. There are a lot of people who will deserve an "I told you so"; however the misery will be so great that compassion will and must set in and we would not have the cruelty required to do such.

What is your perspective. If you are contentedly accumulating then you will not be at all concerned with the daily movements of POG, unless of course you get yourself in a short-term pickle. Not complaining, just amused at myself and the circumstances in which I find myself during the next two days.

hbm
Hill Billy Mitchell
Perspective
It occurred to how comical we gold bugs are. A week or so ago I was in the mood for gold to make it's move. Now I find myself in a pickle. Yesterday locked in 100 ounces of gold eagles for someone else when the spot hit $274. Now I find myself hanging out in never never land because I cannot replace my holdings until Thursday do to a little quirk in my cash and wiring arrangements. I find myself hoping that the price will stay down until at least Thursday afternoon so that when I replace my holdings I will not lose ground.

It depends on your perspective when it comes to these short term movements in POG. Of course my perspective has not waivered since about 1995 concerning the long haul.I am and have been in it for the long haul. The longer the haul the more of the hard stuff I will be able to accumulate.

On Friday I will be back in the position of a normal die-hard gold bug. I will take heart when short-term movements push the price of gold up and feel a little gloomy to see it push the price of gold down, all the while with mixed emotions because when the big one comes I will no longer be able to contentedly accumulate. At some point when accumulation is over for us gold bugs there will be a time to sell a portion. There are a lot of people who will deserve an "I told you so"; however the misery will be so great that compassion will and must set in and we would not have the cruelty required to do such.

What is your perspective. If you are contentedly accumulating then you will not be at all concerned with the daily movements of POG, unless of course you get yourself in a short-term pickle. Not complaining, just amused at myself and the circumstances in which I find myself during the next two days.

hbm
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 2, 2000

Rates for Monday, May 1, 2000

Federal funds 6.17

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 6.00
10-year 6.29
20-year 6.33
30-year 5.98

upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.19%)

Note: sorry about the double post

TownCrier
WGC PRESS RELEASE
World Gold Council: Swiss Gold in Perspective

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 2, 2000--The announcement by the Swiss National Bank that it has begun its gold programme and intends to place an initial 120 tonnes by the end of September has been long-expected and is well within the limits set by the Washington Agreement on Gold.

"This sale does no more than indicate that the Washington Agreement, which the World Gold Council welcomed when it was announced in September 1999, is being adhered to," said Miss Haruko Fukuda, chief executive of the Council. "The Council recognises that entrusting the programme to the Bank for International Settlement is probably one of the least disruptive of alternative channels - in sharp contrast to the auction methods chosen by the UK government."

"Gold provides a unique and important role in reserve asset management and gives stability, even in times of currency turmoil. We believe it should remain as a vital component of official sector reserves, and the WGC will continue to work with central banks and governments throughout the world to encourage them to maintain a significant proportion of gold in their national reserves. I note that the Swiss National Bank itself emphasises that Switzerland will remain one of the most important holders of gold in the world."

Switzerland is constitutionally required to maintain a significant level of gold in its reserves. Like all other major official holders of gold, the Swiss have also made clear that gold will remain an important element in international reserves for the foreseeable future.
Galearis
A repost from Kitco
Date: Tue May 02 2000 13:29
rhody (LEASE RATES: spreads on gold lease rates have tightened) ID#410367:
Copyright � 2000 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
over the past several days. The spread right now is about .85%. ( the spread is the difference between one month and one year rates ) In the middle of last week the spread was about .94% and seemed stuck at that number for the past two weeks. The shrinkage in spreads has occurred during a period of across the board increase in which one year rates increased the least. Today, one year rates dropped by .09%. So, gold was leased and sold over the past few days, which depressed the price to levels not seen since last August ( inflation factored in ) . Shorting ( leaseing ) is
not rational at 50 year lows ( inflation factored in ) unless one is stupid, or the game is rigged. So, the game is rigged.

But the game is getting expensive and increasingly dangerous as the decreasing spread moves us slowly back to the days of backwardation prior to the BOE sale announcement. Question is, can the tricksters come up with another BOE style lackey. Don't count on the SNB gold sales to bail out the shorts. I think this gold will be quietly disposed through the BIS at prices which be as much political as paper.

The pattern that is beginning to emerge is that gold as a
reserve asset is so hot ( valuable ) that only the world reserve currency nation can hope to hold it as a component of reserves. For all others, such as Canada, Switzerland, Australia, who have real goods output, the presence of gold in their reserves tends to so overvalue their currencies that they cannot hope to sell goods abroad. Canada has had a long standing policy ( since 1985 ) of selling off her gold reserves, which once stood at over 1000 tonnes ) Why? We are a very high percapita trading nation. Traders can't hold gold. Only the world reserve currency nation can afford the burden of gold ownership. Here lies the
explanation of why the USA refuses to sell its gold, and why the BOE, and SNB must. The gold will go to the ECB, for $ plus future considerations as the USD implodes, and the EURO fills the void. The highflying dollar right now is actually a symptom of weakness, as it is the recipient of a EURO and SWISS FRANC currency carry that is expanding the debt base of the ECB as the ECB intentionally keeps its interest rates low. This is a debt trap that will be sprung by a simple raising of interest rates by the ECB. GOLD will explode, and the Fed will have no choice but to raise in retaliation imploding both US bond and stock markets. You know what that will do to the dollar. Worse, as the EURO rises, the carry trades will unwind, feeding the sell off of the dollar. I further predict that as this is about to happen ( interest rate rise ) the gold backing of the EURO will be doubled. The ECB has already publicly discussed
this. All IMHO. If the backing by gold of the EURO doubles,
and the POG doubles, this will give the EURO an effective 60% gold backing, and the Swiss, who have sold 1/2 their gold will be no net poorer for the doubling. ( It would be interesting to find out the nature of the paper received by the SNB for sale of gold. If they are smart, and know what is about to happen, they will be paid in EURO bonds, not dollars. )
SHIFTY
The N.Y PONZI
Nasdaq 3,785.45 + Dow 10,731.12 = 14,516.57 divide by 2 = 7,258.28 PONZI


DOWN 126.65 Ponzi Scheming Points!!



Let's HOPE the end is near!!
ced_s
Newspaper article I wrote WAS PUBLISHED TODAY
http://www.therepublic.com/The newspaper article was published, you can view it online.
Go to the above link, then to sound off on left side of screen. then scroll down.
Hope this helps GATA and gold.
pdeep
Fleck on Market Manipulation
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/Well, if these geniuses are cashing out of the rigged game, where does that leave the average value investor?

"But tell us what you really think. . . In other news, my friend Colin Negrych had an interesting take on the recent demise of the big hedge fund operators and I want to share it with readers as food for thought: 'Barton Biggs notes in his piece today. . .three of the best (proven longer term money managers - Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi). . .have quit the game. And he sees this development as a very troubling sign because all three investors are serious, intellectual, very bright people who are serious students of investing [who]. . .had employed all the tools and had matchless resources. He is right to
be troubled. No one has yet written a serious article on "what is killing the macro hedge fund managers?' for
the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times. The answer is clear: We are in a period of unprecedented government intervention and manipulation of markets. . .in response to the near (and forthcoming) collapse of the international economic regime."
YGM
Also in Flectenstien article.....
Visibility in an "Invisible trend".......Quote Excerpt.....


Interestingly, a large Dutch pension firm, PGGM, with about $46 billion in its fund, announced that they were going to put some commodities into their pension allocation. Whether this is anything more than an aberration for the beleaguered commodity markets, only time will tell.....end quote....


Guess how many funds have been slipping into PM stocks
at every opportunity.....How much cash do you think men like Buffet and Soros will sit on in Euros or US $$......They've openly stated that they're selling paper........ I would bet that in a foot-race for Gold and Gold Stocks, that most of those who "THINK" they're in the know and depending on the Cabal to intervene in an upswing in Gold value will find men like these already accross the finish line before Gold hits $350......The block trades in PMs has been very active at Golds lows........We all know who can afford these blocks....Funds and Power Brokers that's who..........Suffer those who "Deny and Dally"...............NO PITY HERE...Not from this "Fed" Up"..
Miner.......YGM.
YGM
Positive GATA News.....
http://www.lemetropolecafe.comSnippet re GATA.......


Some great GATA news to finish up with. A gold producer came through and GATA now has the funds to place an open letter add in Roll Call. The open letter will be addressed to the banking committee members in the U.S Congress about our "Gold Banking Derivative Crisis," document that I am going to personally deliver when I go to Washington. In addition, I will be taking this document for distribution at the June FT Gold Conference in Paris. I intend to pass it out to as many of the press and attendees as I can.

This is a very gratifying development for Chris Powell and I. This means that 5 of the major gold producers are quietly supporting GATA with contributions as are 10 of the smaller gold companies, representing most of the gold producing continents. We will not let any of our supporters down. We ARE going to win the day.



Bill Murphy ( Midas )
schippi
Select Gold ( FSAGX ) Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif Select Gold breakout in progress!
USAGOLD
For the Record:
World Gold Council: Swiss Gold in Perspective

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 2, 2000--The announcement by the Swiss National Bank that
it has begun its gold programme and intends to place an initial 120 tonnes by the end of September has
been long-expected and is well within the limits set by the Washington Agreement on Gold.

``This sale does no more than indicate that the Washington Agreement, which the World Gold Council
welcomed when it was announced in September 1999, is being adhered to,'' said Miss Haruko Fukuda, chief executive of the Council. ``The
Council recognises that entrusting the programme to the Bank for International Settlement is probably one of the least disruptive of alternative
channels - in sharp contrast to the auction methods chosen by the UK government.''

``Gold provides a unique and important role in reserve asset management and gives stability, even in times of currency turmoil. We believe it
should remain as a vital component of official sector reserves, and the WGC will continue to work with central banks and governments throughout
the world to encourage them to maintain a significant proportion of gold in their national reserves. I note that the Swiss National Bank itself
emphasises that Switzerland will remain one of the most important holders of gold in the world.''

Switzerland is constitutionally required to maintain a significant level of gold in its reserves. Like all other major official holders of gold, the Swiss
have also made clear that gold will remain an important element in international reserves for the foreseeable future.

The World Gold Council

The World Gold Council is an international association of leading gold producers, which was founded in 1987 with the primary aims of promoting
gold as a financial and monetary asset and of increasing demand for gold world-wide. The WGC has its central headquarters in London and
maintains regional offices in New York, Singapore and Dubai and local centres in several cities in India, the Far East and Latin America.

BACKGROUND TO SWISS ANNOUNCEMENT

This memorandum gives some background to the latest situation in respect to the Swiss gold programme.

It is now over three years since the Swiss government, proposed to help finance a humanitarian Solidarity Foundation by selling some official
gold. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank determined that it had excessive capital in relation to its requirements. The SNB is owned by
Federal and cantonal governments (with some private shareholding without voting rights). The SNB decided that it could reduce its capital by
handing back some of the gold to its shareholders. Making that possible involved new legislation, constitutional change and a referendum. The plan
broadened; the proceeds from gold sales could finance not only humanitarian aid but might also be put to other good uses as well.

Last September's Washington Agreement implies that the SNB has a quota of 120 tonnes to sell by end September 2000. Politicians sense that the
Swiss people are not against gold sales per se, but very sensitive to how the proceeds are spent. The Swiss public is not prepared to tolerate
large-scale gold sales purely to rebalance the portfolio of the SNB. Gold sales, on such a scale, are acceptable only if a suitable purpose for their
proceeds can be found.

This purpose has not been decided. Recently the Federal Council formed working parties to discuss three possible uses - liquidity of the pension
system, computer training and debt reduction. Nothing in the past suggests a quick resolution. The proposal to dedicate gold to the Solidarity
Foundation was taken quite quickly and without consultation. But even that proposal is now embroiled in political controversy.

Political fighting

The right-of-centre Swiss People's Party (SVP), which recently surged into second place in the popular vote, wishes to dedicate all of the gold to
the Swiss pension system (though it should be emphasised that they have not yet clarified whether they would sell the gold and use the proceeds
for the pension fund or hold the gold against future contingencies). It has a referendum initiative gathering signatures now and will almost certainly
obtain the required 100,000 signatures. The SVP would vigorously attack substantive gold sales as being ahead of vital Swiss popular
decision-making. The Social Party (SP), which was a major force behind the gold sales decision, has entered a period of unusual turmoil and
fragmentation. The centre-right parties (FDP and CVP), which lost heavily to the SVP, must decide where to pick fights that they can win,
knowing that the SVP will be highly critical when politically opportune.

What is clear is that Washington Agreement has changed the situation, making Swiss gold sales less disruptive to the market since they will take
place in the framework of a firm international agreement that has market credibility.
Bonedaddy
ss of nep
Thank you for the link you provided. Later, I'm going to go over there and digest some of that. I just wanted you to know that I like your view about where all this is leading. If one understands who the "Deceiver" is, then it is easier for one to see sin as confusion. When we confuse what "is right", with what "we wish right to be", that is where we fall into the pit. If one persues this train of thought very far, it becomes abundantly clear that the virtues we call "morality" are provided to us solely by the grace of the Almighty, for our own protection. To Paraphrase Solomon, he wrote that when wisdom cries out to us and we fail to heed her warning, she will scoff at us later when we fall. Indeed, all that glitters is NOT GOLD. May wisdom and grace preserve you in the hour of testing. -Bd
Peter Asher
ced_s (05/02/00; 17:06:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29784)
Very well done Ed. Also was good to read the article "A touching story" for on ongoing synopsis on the politicaly correct, controlled press.
Solomon Weaver
Swiss are getting more than money for their gold.
lamprey_65 (05/02/00; 10:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29756)
Interesting Post on Kitco
Allen over at Kitco thinks the Swiss are de-linking their currency from gold because they expect the metal to ramp much higher...this would boost the currency to such an extent that exports would dwindle and the economy would suffer. Interesting theory -- I never did understand why the Swiss, of all people, would want to de-link...any thoughts on this?
-----------
Lamprey, I tend to agree with this idea..... I lived in Switzerland from 1987 to about 1994...during those years, there was a massive amount of "structural change" in Europe...all heading towards free trade. As wealthy as the Swiss are in assets, they need to have jobs to survive...and they historically were strong exporters only of financial services, pharmaceuticals, tourism, and some specialties like chocolate and watches....and yet they are a highly educated and very hard working society.

Now imagine this part....about 7 years ago, Switerland was one of the "first" countries to vote on joining the EU - and die Volk haben NIEN damals gesagt. HAD THEY SAID YES THEN, the little country of 7 million could have had a lot of clout in forming policies for the 300+ million union. Now, by joining in late, they are just a miniscule addition....except for their massive gold reserves...my sense is that even though they are only going to get $300 for some of their gold now...behind that they are "buying" some well needed influence. Because they will join the EU...one thing to look forward too is CH becoming the home of more international organisations.

Poor old Solomon
Chris Powell
Midas commentary for May 2
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/444?The XAU explodes, and here's GATA Chairman
Bill Murphy's "Midas" commentary about it.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Solomon Weaver
Newmont Mining up 10% today.....did that "outperform the market?"
http://moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/webquote.dll?iPage=qd&Symbol=nemAfter buying Newmont for $27 per share about 2 years ago, I finally feel vindicated today to see it up almost $3 to close almost at $27. But the last time the POG was at around $270-280, NEM was usually around $18.

It seems what is going on is that now that the whole stock market is dropping, the "relative strength" of NEM and other gold stocks is showing up...and I suspect that some of the money now flowing in could be "momentum money". Also, gold stocks are STOCKS, which mean if you buy some, you or your broker gets little certificates delivered...like in "taking delivery" of the company.

I will agree with Trail Guide that there is no substitute for gold in hand, but I suspect that there could be a significant rally in gold stocks in the shorter term...and if the gold shorts have their way, the profits from gold stock sales "might" still be able to buy real gold. I am taking a different approach. I own NEM in my IRA only...where it is harder to own gold...if NEM makes a big run, I can rotate a little.

Poor old Solomon
Leland
ced_s --- Let's Publish That Letter on USAGold


Controlling gold
By Ed Stuart
Columbus

The government has determined that Microsoft is a trust.
That is interesting as it seems the government of the U.S.
and banking interests have colluded to control the price
of gold and silver, making it unattractive as an investment
vehicle. They have removed international monetary
systems from the gold standard, but for 75 percent of
the world, gold is still the ultimate store of wealth.

Bill Murphy and Chris Powell are founders of the Gold
Anti-Trust Action. They maintain a Web site named Le
Metropole Caf�. In the caf� are many articles written by
experts in the economics and financial fields. I also must
give credit to the forum at Gold Eagle for many hours of
interesting reading.

When I discussed gold at work, the first statement I
heard was gold has been demonetized. As I have since
learned gold has been demonized, not demonetized.

The Russians and Chinese are buying gold for their
official gold holdings. Asia and the Orient import a large
quantity also, mostly for private investment, and demand
is increasing. In India families will go hungry before they
sell their gold. To these people gold is the ultimate
storehouse of wealth. Gold mine supply in 1999 was
only 2,559 tons.

Frank Veneroso, an internationally recognized financial
consultant has determined the supply/demand deficit is
1,500 to 2,000 tons annually. This deficit is being made
up by gold leasing and gold sales from central banks.
The British and Swiss gold sales are designed to be a
negative reinforcement to the price of gold as well as put
supply into the market.

According to Ted Butler, silver is in extremely short
supply and could explode upwards at any time,
overwhelming those institutions that have capped the
silver price. This could create a hazard to the
international banking system. No one wants that as this
could totally devastate the international economy.

When I read in The Republic that Kuwait was loaning its
gold, I knew there would be a further official
announcement. Within two or three days, I read the
U.S. was increasing its military presence in Kuwait. A
few weeks ago in the Sunday edition of The Republic,
China announced the cost of holding its silver was
expensive (in China?) and was allowing its silver
producers to sell their silver outside of China.

Again within a few days it was announced that the U.S.
supported the Chinese in its One China policy, and more
recently there was no opposition to China's acceptance
into the WTO based on human rights violations.
Coincidence? I think not.

GATA has found that the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a
government agency headed by the secretary of the
Treasury, is responsible only to the president, and has
no reporting requirements to Congress, the probable
agency involved.

The ESF in collusion with major banks are capping the
price of gold regardless of the damage done to the
mining industry and the loss of jobs in Third World
countries. From Greg Pickup of GATA, the top seven
banks involved in this gold suppression have gold
financial derivatives totaling 72.9 billion in place. I
wondered why a BBC article I read recently
commented about the suppression of the gold price and
relating it to the "mountain of derivatives," now I know.

Greg Pickup states the total assets of these seven banks
is $1.8 trillion, the total derivative position is 32.6 trillion.
Is it any wonder Greenspan said that financial derivatives
should not be regulated in a "free market," as did
Secretary of the Treasury Summers. It sounds to me as
if the term should be manipulated market, not free.

GATA has a stack of evidence it will be taking to
Congress soon. This should be an interesting summer.

From THE REPUBLIC, Columbus Indiana's Online Newspaper, and
Fair Use Protections Apply.
Solomon Weaver
(No Subject)
Cavan Man thanked me today for a note I posted a while ago...

The Cafe seems to have confirmed that Buffet is still long silver, which I assume means most of what he bought already...which is over 50% of the standing inventory worldwide!!!! A corner on the market with no fanfare!!!!

Anyway, in light of this, I will once again advise any and all of you to call up Rosie Moore, Vice President of Corporate Relations at Pan American Silver (604) 684-1175 and request an investor package (with 1999 annual report). The report has excellent graphics on silver supply demand etc. PAAS is the company that Bill Gates made a big investment in last year...and they are one of the few companies in the world who are trying to manage as many primary silver mines as possible...although I give no investment advice here, a solid read of their annual report would make anyone a better informed silver and silver mining investor..

And like I always say..."silver is the poor man's gold".

Poor old Solomon
Cavan Man
Galearis
Now, where have I heard that line of reasoning before?

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that so many "clear thinkers" like rhody are all basically on the same page in the same book singing the same tune.
Cavan Man
Solomon Weaver
Gates owns 10.3% of PAAS.
Cavan Man
ss of nep 29734 (Historical, off topic discussion)
Hello. Hegel I know not. The Council of Nicea I know a little bit about and I humbly submit you are both right and wrong. Off topic then and quickly.......

The "Church of Rome" was not "established at Nicea in the 4th century although you are most certainly right about Constantine's most obvious motivations. There is but one Christian Church and that is the Church of Jesus Christ. This "One, Holy and Cathoilc Apostolic Church began with the Apostles, disciples, Saints, Martyrs and otherwise followers of Jesus (the Christ) of Nazareth.

Doctrine and tradition slowly evolved over the decades and several centuries; the Church began to take shape and the Gospel Message was spread. You are correct when you state and I paraphrase, there were many differences of opinion on key and core issues of a theological nature hence, the first seven councils of the Church. These differences of opinion were described in the context of the times as "heresies". The purpose of the first seven "counsels" was to come to agreement through discussion and prayer on the many divisive issues of the day. For example, was Christ both God and Man? The Nicene, Constantinopolitan or Apostles Creed many employ weekly in liturgy and services was a product of the meeting at Nicea. I refer you to it. Again, Constantine certainly desired cohesion and order in the empire.

What began with the death of Jesus Christ was the ancient Christian Church aka the Orthodox Church today. There were five original Patriarchates or, centers; Rome, Alexandria, Jerusalem, Antioch and Constantinople. At that time and even today, the Bishop of Rome is considered "first among equals"; in other words, chairman of the board. However, the key point to understand is all important decisions were made in "counsel". The "Church of Rome" did not begin to take shape until the 11th century.

The "dark ages" began with the fall of Rome and the downfall of western civilzation. For a period of 1000 years after say, 432 AD (anno domini), the original and Apostolic Church continued to flourish in the Byzantine Empire. The Byzantines were the cultural elite of the known world for 1000 years. The Crusades and the indigineous peoples of "the east" changed all that. Sorry, I'm long in the tooth here.

Anyway, it was the Irish who preserved so much of the literature and prominent writings including the Scriptures during the dark ages. These were later re-introduced during the middle ages in an evangelical context. Many agree the Renaissance began in the West as a product of the migration of people, culture, ideas etc owing to the invasion of the east by what would today be described as Moslem peoples.

Today, we indeed have a "Church of Rome" and then, there is the original version. All is in the history books. I take no sides nor have no favorites. I am a seeker of truth. Thank you...CM
Peter Asher
Caven Man
Please feel free to be "Long in the tooth" any time you have some esential historical data to relate to us. The "War on Gold" is a war against the minds of men. Any knowledge invoving that greatest of conflicts is "on topic IMO.

Regarding your "Birtday" post this morning: >>Many thanks to MK, FOA, Aristotle, ORO, The Stranger, SteveH, Farfel, Solomon Weaver, Peter Asher, and the many others here too numerable to mention who have helped along the trail.<<<

Et tu, mon ami!
TheStranger
A Comment On The Strength In Newmont (since it is my biggest holding)
I think it noteworthy for all gold investors that, while bullion traded at an 8-month low just yesterday, Newmont scored what I think is a 7-month high TODAY. Why should this matter to us all? Because important gold rallies have a way of beginning in the mining stocks first.

Someone recently argued the point that, if gold were about to rally, the XAU would be making new highs, not plumbing the depths. But didn't we all learn last October that a rally in gold can be even worse for some miners than is a decline? No wonder the XAU was struggling.

No, I think such strength in the one BIG miner which is widely known not to hedge (for the most part) is a clear sign of the kind of mining stock accumulation by institutional investors that often precedes a rally for the metal.

As an aside...
This may be happening at a very favorable time. First, for the stock market as a whole, many lock-ups are now set to expire. Second, this Thursday is likely to bring "disappointing" productivity numbers (which should have "ominous" inflation implications). Third, the truth about lackluster revenues in techland is now steadily dribbling out. Fourth, any optimism associated with earnings season is now past. Fifth, the FOMC is about to raise interest rates again. And, finally sixth, May isn't normally a very good month for stocks anyway.

This thing may be about to rattle some teeth.
ThaiGold
NEM up 12.53% & XAU up 9.85% Today. And I'm Fed Up.
Attn: Solomon Weaver (05/02/00; 19:52:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 29794)===========================================================================
....
...
..
To: Soloman Weaver
To: All

NEM Link: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=NEM&d=1d
XAU Link: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1d

Soloman Weaver, I'd like to update the percentage figure you posted.
You said 10%. It was infact 12.53%.!. Just thought someone might like
to know that it was even higher than your wonderful post mentioned.

I share your Share elation, today. Pun intended. The slow but steady
rise of Newmont (NEM/nyse) is something I've beeen harping about all
last week or so, in my "PATSY Index Comments (discontinued due to
lack of interest amongst the Forum's apparent non-readers).

Big-Money began moving into NEM Gold shares last week (!), even though
the XAU, and Gold was lethargic-to-declining. Nobody believed me nor
seemed to care. Whatever. You can lead a horse to water, but...

I agree with you, that soon we share holders may be able to take
some welcome profits, and I for one plan to plow some of them into
physical Silver (MK: standby your phone.!.) which I believe is one
of your (Soloman Weaver) other favorites. And I tried to enliven the
Forum's discussion with some posts asking "why was Silver not confiscated
in the FDR 1933 sham?" There was only one response, and that one even
skirted the issue entirely. The question remains unanswered.!.

And it still seems to me, that Physical Silver would be a good alternative
to "pre-1933" Gold coins, for those worried about the confiscation issue.
Yet nobody in the Forum seems to hear my Voice from the Wilderness.

Is it any wonder that many posters lose interest and fade away from
the Forum. It seems often merely a Mutual Admiration Society, which
remains closed to new-ideas and new-thinkings. Unless a poster is one
of the In-Crowd, or FOA-Worshipper, he is relegated to Court-Jester
status, totally ignored, or simply considered a CrackPot.

Today, I received a single e-mail response from a Forum stalwart, to my
earlier post regarding a new-theory about soaring Gold Exports:
Here's his illuminating in depth response to me:

[quote]
Come in out of the rain ! You are all wet !
Could you be looking at a grain of sand and not see the beach?
[unquote]

I assume his comment is friendly, and meant to be a good natured jibe
to me, as I thought we were e-mail friends, and on similar wavelengths.
I'll contact him later, if I can figure out what to say.

Once again, to the Forum, I'd like to put some thoughts on the table:

(1) Physical PM's are of course the best way to protect wealth.
(2) The FOA/ANOTHER scenarios are Long-Term, possibly years away.
(3) Many investor's prefer Capital Gains and or Dividends. Sooner.
(4) Am I "Talking My Book?" YES.
(5) Am I "Putting my Money Where my Mouth is?" ... YES
(6) Manipulation may or may-not be an issue.
(7) The "Oil-For-Gold" scenario has a simpler COMEX/LBMA method.
(8) And it drives down the POG often, in a previously unmentioned manipulation.
(9) How else does Big-Oil convert it's massive US$ revenue into Physical Gold.?.

Frankly, I'm beginning to feel that it's pointless to try to post or talk
sense into this Forum and am inclined to fade away, myself. I'm sure I will
not be missed. "Is this Sour Grapes".?. Nope. Just Reality. I'm fed up.

Cordially,

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
==============================================================================
The Invisible Hand
POG in euro
gold down, dollar up vis-a-vis euro, this could mean gold up again in euro (gold gained 20 % in euro the last fourteen months).
here in the Southern Philippines, I have no access to WSJ or FT.
can anybody direct me to a website quotimg gold (and Maple Leafs) in euro (and Belgian francs)?
Chris Powell
Others are starting to sound like GATA
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/445?Maybe it's still too early for GATA to start saying
"we told you so," but others are starting to say
the same things as GATA and maybe events are at
least starting to bear us out.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
ORO
ThaiGold - stay

This forum is pretty staid, so don't jump if a daily posting of an index seems less than exciting. I, for one, search for your patsy index at the end of each day.

I am with you on the investment in gold shares and I am with traders when future volatility is sufficient to justify the quick trader's play. However, physical gold and silver - and I dare say Platinum and its cousins too - are not speculative vehicles, nor are they liquid short term investments, nor are they intermediate term investments. They are insurance against a fiduciary system wildly flailing as it tries to keep itself from drowning in its own excreta of nearly seven decades.

The bank statistics I follow indicate a system in critical condition. That all attempts are being made to keep the system of fiduciary obligations from failing should come as no surprise. All possible favors are being called in from any who have gold or silver on hand.

There is no way to tell exactly when the system breaks. But break it will. Carry trades are threatening to unwind, but all bankers have come up with as a solution is extending the carry trades.

I share your frustration with the fact that often a post will recieve no responses. Often the post will be met with responses containing no new insights or good criticism. Yet if you don't post your view and your questions, you would not have a chance for response at all.

So I urge you to continue posting, when time and subject matter permit I, for one, will respond.
DK
ThaiGold
I've lurked here without participating for a long time basically because I'm well infomed but this is not my area of expertise. Call it deference or enlightened self- interest. I keep up with several econmic discussions but generally read only a few favorites consistently. You're one of them. Your last is a good example why. Using silver to avoid confiscation and your speculation re. oil-gold are completely original, logical and practical. You might consider that one difference here from face-to-face discussions is that if we were in the same room I would be required to acknowledge I heard but you wouldn't need it anyway. You'd see it. On the oter hand writing you a formal acknowledgement to the site seems awkward and a waste of every other member's time. In any case, please reconsider. Thanks.


YGM
ThaiGold....
ORO is Right...& not just about high finance and Gold ....you are needed as are new posters to keep this discussion board alive. Diversity makes this place more appealing....IMHO....YGM.

Come out of the Shadows....people!! Speak up and liven up this place......Share your thoughts with the rest of us...
SHIFTY
ThaiGold
I think you should stay.
Things are just starting to get interesting.View Yesterday's Discussion.

ThaiGold
Oooops.!. I spelled Solomon Weaver incorrectly.
An apology.......
...
..
To: Solomon Weaver

My sincere apologies to you, for my error in spelling
your name. I am so-dumb, that I cannot even spell the
word "mispell" correctly. Sheesh.

Cordially,

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
((Yesterday, I even misspelled my own e-mail address))
========================================================
Elwood
GoldTango Exports Analysis Completed
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/
We've completed our analysis of gold exports. Comments welcomed.
Elwood
Simply Me
NEWS FLASH*****
Just heard, England and German Stock Markets to merge.
Just one simple line that says volumes.


ASIDE..To Thai Gold.
Please, continue to post. Your views are appreciated. Some of us who read your posts faithfully simply do not have enough knowledge of the subject to answer your questions or compose an interesting reply. But we count on folks like you to ask those interesting questions.

Thanks to all for continued news and education.
Hope all you posters and lurkers have your Golden Parachutes ready. There's not much time left to accumulate. I'm pretty sure TPTB are trying to patch the economy together till the Presidential election. They want either a Democrat or a Republican in the Whitehouse (doesn't matter which..they back both sides). If they can't, won't the Libertarians and various other Independent parties have a field day!
If it's gonna blow anyway, I want to see it sooner rather than later....before TPTB get either Bush or Gore into the Whitehouse. Aren't they both Skull and Crossbones members?
I'm sure Gore is. He's bought and paid for, for sure. As for Bush...well, Daddy paid his way.
Alan Keyes for Panetarchis!

Sorry...I tend to rant. That's why I don't post too often.

Gold...Ready for Blastoff!
simply me
Simply Me
Misspelled "Ruler of the World"
Sorry..that's Planetarchis, not Panetar...oh, you know what I mean.
simply :)
nickel62
Loved the gold export chart thanks!
I wanted to make sure people looked at the gold export chart posted just before by Elwood. I think it raises many significant questions.
AuBug
Thai Gold
Your wanting to quit the forum is not sour grapes. It is just another sign that the bottom is in.
Topaz
Thai-Elwood
Thai Gold:
You have my undivided attention--- please keep posting & speculating.
Elwood:
Sharefin would be proud ----
"The Oxymoronic Oscars"
And the winner is------ Nonmonetary Gold (almost pipped at the post by) Dollar Value.
Interesting weeks ahead- Keep your heads down gents!!
SteveH
ThaiGold
I read your posts too. So stick around. Just an aside, the long-term posters here are long-term because they have all experienced your feelings but keep posting anyway. Every post can't be a blockbuster nor get audible applause, but once in a while a real gem is cut. Yours show great glimmer.

Stock futures are in the red this morning, early. The Euro is getting hammered, now in the 90s. Gold up 2.0 (June futures) at 279. Crude crossed the 27 line. Dollar at 110.72 and rising.

This tells me that oil was taking a breather but is destined higher, gold is following gold stocks, Euro is being attacked, bond yields are likely to rise, and stocks may show some volatility to the downward side for the next few days. In other words, the inflation train is gaining momentum and oil will keep the pressure on and somebody is going to tick off the ECB pretty darn soon.
AuBug
Is this one for real?
I have heard from our RSA friends that the big pop in US PoG shares was short covering during the last hour of trading. Correction tomorrow and then another slow grind into the dirt? Dust to dust...ashes to ashes...

They will try very hard to put gold back into the ground.

At what point do market forces overwhelm suppression?

AuBug
What's up on the JSE
Gold shares up moderately in RSA. You can expect a big correction today in GOLD and HGMCY. Our RSA friends are not pumping gold shares up 30-50% in one day.

You Yanks slow down a bit. Rome wasn't built in a day and XAU 140 won't happen this week. Aussies were much more conservative even after the 10% rise in the XAU.


http://www.bfanet.com/rtw/nowmain.htm
Peter Asher
ThaiGold (05/02/00; 21:41:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29802)

Let's start with >>>>There was only one response, and that one even skirted the issue entirely. The question remains unanswered.!. <<<<<

First I said (Re- silver)"there is the problem of tonnage when confronting the storage of life-saving's sized value." Then in the 2nd post of my two part answer I said: "When you read the Executive Order of 1933, you notice that the key concern stated was the "hoarding" of Gold whilst in the middle of a "Banking Emergency." and: When people had their gold cashed out into dollars, some may still have rushed right back home and put the dollars under the mattress, but certainly a lot were deposited in the bank and thus facilitated the resuscitation of the system."

Apparently I should have pointed out specifically that silver was not being hoarded in the quantities per individual that would result in substantial bank deposits if confiscated: and that silver would have been too costly to ship and store and also wouldn't have been of use for international transactions. Also, being an industrial metal it wouldn't be viable as a price controlled monetary metal.

I don't think, however that this was "Skirting the issue." Sounds like your complaint is a euphemism for not getting the answer you wanted! Then you say >>>>Yet nobody in the Forum seems to hear my Voice from the Wilderness.<<<<. I call your attention to Peter Asher (4/29/2000; 23:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29607)
ThaiGold (4/29/2000; 21:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29602)
" Delete everything before Paragraph #3 "for the most part" and I see this as an HOF
nominee." --- Was the request to delete the subtle dig regarding FOA so appalling to you that the recognition of the value of your main message was forfeit? Or did this suggested nomination, which you chose to ignore, merely interfere with your desire to feel sorry for yourself and beg for sympathy tonight.?

Your >>>>Unless a poster is one of the In-Crowd, or FOA-Worshipper, he is relegated to Court-Jester status, totally ignored, or simply considered a CrackPot.<<<< is an evaluation without substance. If you can post anything said here, to back that up, I will stand corrected!
SteveH
Elwood
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/analysis1.htmDamn good, Elwood. Excellent anaylysis. All must check it out.

snippet--

"Today, the upcoming Swiss sales may be providing some psychological impact on the price, however, these are real flows of gold, not psychological flows. We believe the Fed and the US Treasury have lost much of their foreign help in maintaining a low gold price and will face a massive struggle to continue this effort against market forces that have never been defeated in the history of mankind. Once the market realizes that the Swiss sales will never leave the BIS/ECB sphere of control, this will no doubt set the dollar afire. For the Swiss/Europeans to do otherwise will deprive them of much of the high-powered ammunition they'll require to defend their new currency when, as it surely must, their policy changes from one of passive, non-support for the dollar to one of active resistance."

Topaz
Fess-up time

Ok- t'is in the wee small hours and this post may go largely unnoticed, but post it I will:-
CONFESSION:
I'm out of Funds!!
That's right- skint, broke, busted.
To date, I've capped EVERY run-up in POG since last March. The BoE sales notification didn't stop that one- "I did" (as I recall a 3 Oz purchase) The Washington Agreement "Hah" (a paultry 6 Sovereigns stopped that run-away train) - and the one in Feb 00 ( now that baby was a doosie- Got set for "several" Oz's at 10am local.--by 10-15 the price rise had faultered- and that same after-noon another dealer rang and offering quantity at A$40 less an Oz.. Price still hasn't recovered to that buy level even in " Sth Pacific Pesos".
The message all this conveys is- I'm unable to stop this one. I'm out of fodder- and that, fellow bugs, augurs well for this BULL.
NOW--- if only Sir canamami would post & declare a recent sale!!! < big smile>
ss of nep
Cavan Man (05/02/00; 20:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 29799)


"...we indeed have a "Church of Rome" and then, there is the original version. All is in the history books..."

I am still working on reading ALL the history books, many
of them are contradictory, still a long way to go.

I think it might help if the Vatican would open its library for world view.


ThaiGold
In Rebuttal
Attn: Peter Asher (5/3/2000; 3:29:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29819)=================================================================
....
...
..
5-03-2000
To: Peter Asher

Where to begin.?.

Okay: I feel the question(s) I asked about the non-FDR-confiscation
of Silver were two-fold:
(1) Why was Silver *mentioned* in the FDR-Order, but didn't in-fact occur.?.
(2) Wouldn't that imply that Silver would be a good alternative nowadays.?.

Your answer, was appreciated, but I felt "skirted" the issues I'd raised,
in-that, initially, you spoke only of Gold hoarding, etc etc. And you only
mentioned the impracticality of storing large amounts of Silver. You did *not*
put forth a *reason* why (proclamation-mentioned-included-Silver) was not
indeed confiscated, regardless of who may have or may-not have had large or
even small holdings of Silver in 1933.

My "complaint" was not meant to be "a euphemism for not getting the answer
I wanted". Indeed, I had no answer in mind; is why I asked those (logical)
questions in the first place. And I'm still wishing someone would answer
or roundtable discuss them in this forum. To-date, they haven't, except you.
And I appreciate the efforts you have put forth singlehandedly to do so.
But I feel the issue(s) are still fully-unanswered and undiscussed here.

Next, is (I think) a non-issue, regarding your nomination of my #29602 post
to the HOF, if-only the initial paragraph (which you describe, probably quite
correctly, as "a subtle dig regarding FOA") were deleted. I saw that aspect
of it clearly, myself, and fully expected nobody else would consider 2nd'ing
the nomination. None of us are fools, here in this Forum. I myself, would
have, and intended-to *decline* any such fully-nominated/2nd'd event if it
had somehow come about. Which it didn't. And I'm glad. The material was not
worthy of inclusion amongst the HOF. I knew that; You knew that; And everyone
that *didn't* 2nd (or even respond further to it) knew that. Case closed.
So, to conserve bandwidth, I did not respond a "Thank You" to you for the
(what would have been) ludicrous nomination. But I will say Thanks, now, if
you sincerely expected it. And my apologies for not having done so, then.

And thirdly, in rebuttal, where you said: "Or did this suggested nomination,
which you chose to ignore, merely interfere with your desire to feel sorry
for yourself and beg for sympathy tonight.?"

My answer to that, is ... "no". I do not have such foresight, to see that far
into the future to know whether I'd be having a Bad-Hair-Day two nights later,
nor if I'd want or need a little or alot or just an average amount of sympathy.
As it turns out, I really wasn't needing any. Believe it or not.

And lastly, I guess I have to prove the unproveable: Where you said, regarding
my suggestion that an In-Crowd exists in this Forum that tends to ignore those
non-conformant poster's items: [quote] "is an evaluation without substance. If
you can post anything said here, to back that up, I will stand corrected! " [Unquote]

Isn't that about the same as asking a man if he has stopped beating his wife?
I mean, how can I post "proofs" that were in fact never-posted.?. The ignore
this thorn in our sides guy and he will go away treatment. However, what I
*could* do (but won't) is post many many emails that I just received, backing
up my "observation", and expressing similar feelings (to me privately) about
that issue. It's not something I made up out of thin air. It's a widespread
belief amongst Lurkers and Posters that do not wish to publicly state into
the Forum. And perhaps wisely so.

In summation; We all know what Harry Truman said about Heat, and Kitchens.
I love cooking, stirring pots, and Kitchens. To me, the "Heat" is nothing.
That's why I include my e-mail address nowadays. And why I'm still here.

Petty-bickering like this does not belong in the Forum, and I apologize to
MK that is has come to this. Anyone: Please-Please, just badger me via e-mail.
It's alot simpler. More gentlemanly. And usually ends happily resolved.

Cordially,

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
============================================================================
Henri
The Invisible Hand
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Collection&cid=ZZZNSJCX70CYou can get FT but the inner pages require a subscription...not too dear
ss of nep
Bonedaddy (05/02/00; 19:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29790)
http://home.sol.no/~noetic/nagham/gosthom.html

I liked your paraphased quote �

"To Paraphrase Solomon, he wrote that when wisdom cries out to us and we fail to heed her warning, she will scoff at us later when we fall. "

The one I like the best is from the Gospel of Thomas �

2. Jesus said, "Those who seek should not stop seeking until they find. When they find, they will be disturbed. When they are disturbed, they will marvel, and will reign over all. [And after they have reigned they will rest.]"



Trail Guide
Comment
ALL:

I've been working up several new posts and have had no time to place them yet. I talk in depth to a number of people and it can be quite a task. So, am behind reading too. Also wanted to wait until I could post some long overdue replies and comments on the main forum. ORO, your good thoughts always require some commentary from me. Will do so this weekend.

Excellent writing by everyone! Elwood, great charts! Stranger, your'er NEM is going up too fast!
Only allowed 10% a week (smile).

Looks like our long term plan is still working in the right direction! Good news for gold advocates!

thanks
Trail Guide
SteveH
Hmm?
Euro under 90!

and on the protecting gold (jewelery) department:


repost:

British businessman shoots gunman dead to thwart robbery at Nairobi racecourse

By Declan Walsh in Nairobi and Steve Boggan


3 May 2000

A British businessman shot and killed one gunman and wounded a second yesterday when he foiled a robbery attempt at a racecourse in Nairobi.

Bob Holt, a former aide of the late media tycoon Robert Maxwell, was held up at gunpoint and ordered to open the racecourse's safe � but the four robbers did not reckon on him being armed with a .38 calibre revolver because of a previous attempt on his life.

While the robbers held up staff and took cash and jewellery, Mr Holt, chief executive of the Jockey Club of Kenya, chose his moment before pulling out his gun and shooting two of the gang in quick succession. One died on the spot and the other, who is still at large, fled with two accomplices in a stolen Nissan car with diplomatic numberplates.

Blood was splattered on the walls and computers of the offices where the shooting took place. Speaking outside the offices, Mr Holt declined to comment before making a statement to police. However the racecourse chief of security, Shadrack Maluki, described the robbery.

He said two smartly dressed men entered the Jockey Club offices at the racecourse at 10am and held hostage Mr Holt, a receptionist and a promotions manager. The men, who were armed with at least one gun but were not masked, demanded the takings from last Sunday's race meeting, estimated at about 200,000 Kenyan shillings (�1,700).

After taking a bag of money the robbers moved the hostages into a different office and began to steal their jewellery. At that point Mr Holt pulled his gun from his pocket and shot one of the robbers twice in the chest. Then he turned around and shot the other man, who had been removing rings from the other employees' fingers.

The first robber died on the spot while the other, who was wounded in the chest, managed to stagger to the waiting car. They sped out of the compound, menacing security staff and shooting into the air. "There was blood spilling out of the side of the vehicle as they drove off," said Richard Ngui, a security guard.

Mr Holt handed over his revolver, which was licensed, to police detectives for ballistic examination. Mr Maluki said he expected the gun to be returned soon.

"The robbers were real professionals, acting just like diplomats," he said. "It was a very brave thing Bob did. The killing was entirely justifiable. He only shot in self-defence when a weapon had been pulled on him." Kenyan police were appealing for information on a heavily bloodstained vehicle seen leaving the racecourse.

Mr Holt's former wife Linda, who runs Capitol Radio in Nairobi, said: "We are all very concerned about what happened, but the police said he handled it very courageously. Being held up at gunpoint on a Tuesday morning is not the sort of thing you expect. We're all very relieved he's OK."

Yesterday's events mark the latest chapter in a fascinating life. As a young man, Mr Holt rode bicycles professionally on the Continent. For nine years, he worked in a variety of executive positions for Robert Maxwell before becoming managing director of the East African Standard in Nairobi in the early 1990s.

While there, the paper ran a story that upset some sections of the Asian community. According to a close friend, who asked not to be named, one potential assailant decided to take it out on Mr Holt, firing a shot that narrowly missed his head.

The Kenyan government offered him protection and provided a bodyguard for up to six months. "He was also given a gun and taught how to use it by the bodyguard, who had in turn been trained by the Israeli secret service," said the friend.

"He was told never to draw his pistol unless he intended to use it. I'm shocked that he has been involved in such an incident, but not surprised that he defended himself. He's a confident man, but not arrogant, and he's a quiet character but very brave."

He left the newspaper at the end of last year and was asked to join struggling Swindon Town Football Club as its chief executive. Despite his best efforts, however, the club was too far in debt and went into administration after two months.

The club's staff were relieved yesterday when told the news by The Independent. Robin Humby, Swindon Town's management accountant, said: "While he was here he was not a man to be trifled with. His stay was always going to be brief. He resigned after two months because there was nothing more he could do for us."

He left in February and had been helping the Kenyan Jockey Club to restructure its finances after a difficult spell. According to the friend, he was working only for expenses and his love of the turf.

***

And on the manipulation front:

Date: Wed May 03 2000 06:49
gwyz (I hear a fat lady...) ID#44161:
Copyright � 2000 gwyz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/

"Barton Biggs notes in his piece today. . .three of the best ( proven longer term money managers - Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi ) . . .have quit the game. And he sees this development as a very troubling sign because all three investors are serious, intellectual, very bright people who are serious students of investing [who]. . .had employed all the tools and had matchless resources. He is right to be troubled. No one has yet written a serious article on "what is killing the macro hedge fund managers?" for the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times. The answer is clear: We are in a period of unprecedented government intervention and manipulation of markets. . .in response to the near ( and forthcoming ) collapse of the international economic regime."
Golden Boy
Cambior Private Placement @ C$1.45
Cambior just announced they did a private placement for US$5 million at a price of C$1.45 a share, a significant premium over their $0.85 share price. Jipangu, a Japanese gold company, bought the shares at a premium but still at a substantial discount to Cambior's Net Asset Value. Jipangu should be able to help Cambior with their financing problems especially when they have access to very low interest rates in Japan at 1%. This transaction should speed up the process for a potential take-over bid for Cambior, most likely Teck or Agnico-Eagle. Cambior has been killed for their over-hedging, well-deserved, but now the company is trading at unbelievably low levels, this company is very attractive. How would this company look without a hedge book? Probably the best value gold stock out there. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they were to unwind their hedges now at a low gold price of around $275.
SteveH
Not our plan
TG,

For the record, it ain't our plan. We are bought viewers of the big TV screen of the world. (at least it isn't mine). I personally like a strong dollar, I don't like weak gold. Now if that isn't a paradox, I don't know what is. :-)
pdeep
The irrational exuberance of the 90's and the excesses of '29
http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htmKurt Richebacher weighs in on the '29 and 90's. This is the best and most concise analysis of the two periods I have seen in a long time. His insights on where corporate debt ended up between the two periods is worth the price of the admission.
TheStranger
ThaiGold
My apologies. I had been following your remarks about the implications of Newmont's strength and should have credited your original thinking in my post last night. I am glad you spoke up!

I sometimes wonder if anybody reads my stuff too.
Recently I asked about this and got a slew of positive responses. I know it is hard to guage the value of your contribution without feedback, so here it is: I read you ALL THE TIME, and apparently so do dozens of others. I think your ideas are an important asset to this forum.
Gandalf the White
The Hobbits Observations of the first 13 minutes of the PPT actions.
One group of Hobbits were watching the XAU index while another was watching the S&P Futures as indicated by the $PREMX, both on Quotecom/Livecharts. VERY INTERESTING !!
The $PREMX group was shocked as the S&P Futures started at near ZERO, bounced to only +4 and then went into negative territory for the first nine minutes. While this was happening the XAU group watched as someone TRASHED the XAU!!It opened down one-half a point (from 61 to 60.5) and then proceeded to be HAMMERED down to 59 within two minutes, and then sliding more to the 58.3 level. BUT, at the 9:43 mark the $PREMX group saw the index suddenly spike from about the 2 level to above the 10 level. The Hobbits conclude that the PPT can not do two things at once !!! The most important action this morning was to KILL the XAU's rise!! (and they did a very good job) All the Hobbits hope now is that ORO can confirm this view of the PPT's morning action.
<;-)
Galearis
A must read: earmarked gold; exports
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/fed_earmarked_gold.htm
Cage Rattler
Intervention and the Euro Central Bank
Does anyone know if all 11 ECOFIN Ministers must give prior approval for ECB and national central banks to intervene in the markets? Or, can the ECB can intervene without approval of EU Finance Minsters? I'm trying to get some clarity on the issue as there doesn't seem consensus in the interbank market.
Skip
ThaiGold
I'll echo the others who want you to stay around. Some of your postings are what make this forum worth reading, and I appreciate them. There are probably many lurkers like me who read this forum almost every day but rarely post comments.

Certainly most of us have experienced our own emotions almost getting the better of us at times when we realize that our financial affairs have been influenced by a rigged market. It's almost enough to make you want to throw in the towel...but GATA seems to be making great progress bringing this POG manipulation to the attention of the world. Also, this forum is a valuable golden discussion on the internet; and one that I read far more often than any other. (BTW, did others lose their ability to post on Kitco this year? They ignored me when I told them my password no longer worked. But no great loss, as I prefer this forum!)

I for one wish to be on the golden train when it finally leaves the station. Stay aboard, as I almost feel like I know some of you.

--Skip
USAGOLD
Today's Report: Euro Woes Could Boost European Gold Demand
5/3/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
277.00
+0.10
Silver July Comex
5.06
-0.02
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
95~24
-0~03
Dollar Index June NYBOT
111.10
+0.97

Market Report (5/3/00): An overseas continuation of yesterday's gold rally was quickly
squashed in New York as the euro took a horrendous pounding in the early going and the dollar
soared. Gold short-covering in the wake of the the details on the Swiss sales being made public
characterized both London and Asian trading. Wall Street itself has not drawn strength from the
dollar's rise. Stocks continued their downtrend despite the dollar's strength. Some of the dollar's
strength can be attributed to persistent speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates a half-point
at its May 16 meeting.

If the European Union was ever serious about making the euro a challenger to the dollar for
reserve currency status, they have certainly been hampered by the currency's performance over the
past four months. This morning it dipped below the 90� level. One would think that the obvious
weaknesses in the euro system would send European savers scurrying to the pantry for the
Rolaids, if not to check if their personal gold stash is still intact. There is little doubt that in an area
of the world where currency disasters are part and parcel of the history, and gold ownership
remains the time-tested portfolio antidote to such monetary dalliance, that the demand for gold
would rise proportionately given the circumstances. This used to be the type of situation on which
the thrifty, sound-money Swiss would thrive. Now, it seems they have given up that market for
their own reasons, leaving gold the last safe haven in Europe. As it stands now, Europe is the
second largest gold buying area of the world. Under the circumstances, it may soon take the
number one position.

Beyond the tangle of current European politics, we do not attribute gold's lollygagging this
morning to the Swiss announcement yesterday. We continue to believe that its the strength of the
dollar that's keeping gold in check. The Swiss have repeatedly stated that the gold sales would be
conducted in a manner that would not undermine the price. In commissioning the Bank for
International(BIS) to handle the sales, the Swiss, at least on the surface, seem to have fulfilled that
promise. Many in the gold trading arena believe that the BIS will spoon-feed the gold into the
market, or even simply bridge the metal across to other central banks who are in the acquisition
mode. As it now stands, of the 2000 tonnes in gold sales agreed upon by the world's central
bankers vis a vis the Washington Agreement, the Swiss will sell 1300 tonnes, the Dutch will sell
100 tonnes this year and another 200 tonnes over the remaining four years of the accord, and the
United Kingdom will sell 365 tonnes. That amounts to 1965 of the 2000 tonnes agreed upon.
There will be few if any official-sector surprises over the next four years -- a bullish backdrop for
gold investors in the weeks and months to come.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click here ---> ORDER FORM <--- and make the appropriate entries.
WilloTheWarthog
US Markets viewed from Switzerland
http://www.baz.ch/wirtschaft/welcome.html(excerpted from today's Basler Zeitung)


New Economy: Only propaganda

A little leniency of a quite different style spreads from an anonymous Editorial of "Le Monde", into which poisonous arrows towards Washington and London are shot. The enormous communication apparatus of the US capitol paints the new Economy in the most beautiful colours, in order to whitewash the weaknesses like the ridiculous rate of saving or the enormous external deficits. The English and the analysts of the large banks of this world combined also criticized euro country, as if it were still as before limited by state interventionism.
YGM
EURO....& England
Like a Cat Burgler...In thru the "Back Door"...........British Stock Shares to Be Listed in Euros

Another insult to the pound and Her Majesty.

BRITAIN'S largest companies could be forced to list their shares in euros rather than sterling following a merger of the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges which is due to be announced today.

The plan would be a massive blow for those campaigning to keep the pound and was attacked last night as a German-led attempt to "introduce the euro by the back door". The euro fell to new lows against the pound and dollar again yesterday and is worth 20 per cent less than it was when it was launched 17 months ago.

Such exchange risks could become a fact of life for British investors buying shares in companies such as Marks & Spencer, British Telecom and Barclays Bank unless Britain joins the single currency. If the merger goes through, it is also likely to force leading companies to record their entire financial accounts in euros - adding further momentum to the campaign for British entry.

The change is expected to introduce significant extra costs for both businesses and investors, particularly the millions of smaller shareholders who do not usually invest in foreign currencies. Nevertheless, the London exchange is believed to be pressing ahead with plans for a full merger with its German rival which aims to encourage all large European companies to quote their primary share listing in euros.

The board of Frankfurt's Deutsche B�rse met last Friday to agree the terms of the 50:50 merger and their 14 counterparts in London were expected to rubber-stamp the deal in a meeting last night. The London board includes the Stock Exchange chief executive Gavin Casey and leading City figures such as the HSBC chairman Sir John Bond and Merrill Lynch's European chairman Michael Marks.

The Stock Exchange would not comment on the terms of the merger until a press conference this morning, and is expected to introduce the measure gradually. It appears that the top 350 European companies listed on the new joint exchange will be expected to have their primary listing in euros to minimise the exchange risk for institutions wishing to trade in both markets.

This would encompass all the FTSE 100 constituents and possibly dozens of second-tier companies such as Scottish & Newcastle and PowerGen. News of the merger terms caused anger among anti-euro campaigners last night and could cause a wider backlash.

A spokesman for Business for Sterling said: "There is very serious concern in the City about the terms of this proposed deal. Many of Britain's biggest companies oppose listing in euros and this deal will hit small shareholders. It looks like a lot of expensive bureaucracy and paperwork for little real gain."

The merger has been attacked as unattractive from a British point of view since it gives an equal footing to the smaller Frankfurt exchange. The market for established "blue-chip" companies from both exchanges will be based in London while Frankfurt will host a market for newer, high-tech companies.

Last night it emerged that America's Nasdaq exchange will take a shareholding in this Frankfurt-based high-tech market, which could undermine earlier commitments to run its European operations from London.

Mr Casey is expected to step down in favour of Deutsche B�rse's chief executive Werner Seifert, but should receive the bulk of a rumoured �8 million worth of management share options following the demutualisation of the London Exchange. Don Cruickshank, the former telecoms and banking regulator, will become chairman of the new group, which will be based in London.

The London Telegraph, May 3, 2000
ss of nep
For those mathematically inclined : RiskMetetrics
ftp://ftp.jpmorgan.com/pub/RiskMetrics/
It appears the BIS has had some part in creating these models.
The entire book is about 300 pages.

Go to indicated ftp site and you can then access the book contained across files ..

TD4ePt_1.pdf
TD4ePt_2.pdf
TD4ePt_3.pdf
TD4ePt_4.pdf
TD4ePt_5.pdf




Also,

There appears to be a formal organization to handle Riskmetrics info. It's located at

http://www.riskmetrics.com/research/techdocs/index.cgi

The site is free but you have to register for access to the files.




Henri
Gold Fields Hammered
GOLD today is down 24% a buy opportunity?
Farfel
Gold Technicians' Reality Check....Re: APH @KITCO
On April 26, he called it wrong, declaring we would head down from 270 to 250.

Seven days later, he claims he called it right, referring to yesterdays "anticipated rally of the low 270's."

(see memorialized posts below)

Beware of gold technicians, they are counting on goldbugs to have very short memories.

But worst of all, on KITCO they are predisposed to scare gold investors into selling into any rally.

Change the perception, Buy and Hold.

Thanks

F*

-------------------------------


Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56
APH (Trading - Gold) ID#7223:
"Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a
little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed
the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low
ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could
happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.

------------------------------------------------------


Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11
APH (Trading) ID#7223:
Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up did
more harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold are
still ahead.

Corn - your position should be in place below 2.50 in July, objective still 3.50 in June, its now a hold and see
what happens.

Bellies - your position short from the highs 90's in july contract is being rewarded today "lock limit down"

snp - mid range, no trade
WilloTheWarthog
Euro (from Le Monde)
http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,2320,dos-2340-52594-QUO-1-2031-,00.htmlLa hausse des taux de la BCE accentue le recul de l'euro

It remains that the move of the BCE did not make it possible to support the euro, on the contrary. The majority of the analysts estimated, before the meeting, that a rise of the rates of a quarter of point could not probably stop the fall of the European currency. Some awaited a more significant turn of screw (0,5 point). The retreat of the euro, but also of the markets of obligations and actions Europeans after the decision of the BCE, reflects the disappointment of the investors, who estimate that the BCE made the bad choice. This rise is not, in their eyes, sufficient to help the euro but, on the other hand, it will contribute to slow down the economic growth on the Old Continent... and thus to weaken the European currency! The monetary strategy of hardening to support the euro according to them is dedicated to the failure. The dive of the euro after its rise of the rates could lead the BCE to place from now on an intervention on the foreign exchange market in the center of its reflexions, intervention which would be coordinated with the central banks of the United States and Japan. The evolutions of the next days will be determining: Ernst Welteke, the president of Bundesbank, estimated, Thursday April 27, that a euro clearly below 0,90 dollar was " to tell the truth hardly conceivable ". Is this level when the BCE decides to counteract?
Farfel
Gold Technicians Reality Check...re: APH@KITCO
On April 26, he called it wrong, declaring we would head down from 270 to 250.

Seven days later, he claims he called it right, referring to yesterdays "anticipated rally off the low 270's."

(see memorialized posts below)

Beware of gold technicians, they are counting on goldbugs to have very short memories.

But worst of all, on KITCO they are predisposed to scare gold investors into selling into any rally.

Change the perception, Buy and Hold.

Thanks

F*

-------------------------------


Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56
APH (Trading - Gold) ID#7223:
"Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a
little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed
the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low
ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could
happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.

------------------------------------------------------


Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11
APH (Trading) ID#7223:
Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up did
more harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold are
still ahead.

Corn - your position should be in place below 2.50 in July, objective still 3.50 in June, its now a hold and see
what happens.

Bellies - your position short from the highs 90's in july contract is being rewarded today "lock limit down"

snp - mid range, no trade
Peter Asher
ThaiGold (5/3/2000; 4:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29823)
No sympathy here for your "Bad Hair Day" I'll trade you for my bald spot.

Re your >>>>Which it didn't. And I'm glad. The material was not worthy of inclusion amongst the HOF. I knew that; You knew that; <<<< --- No I didn't "Know " that. While sociologically I am contemptuous of the current Americana, I have been a staunch fan of it's economic prowess and have disagreed with the attitude that the dollar is a worthlesspiece of paper. I thought your post was a superb defense of the capability of the people of the USA to back it with productive capability, present-time lazy, freeloading Sheeple not withstanding. Maybe its because I'm old enough to remember the tide of World war II being turned by "Rosie The Riveter." The two factors that won that war were the ability for the American soldier to think for himself and take the initiative on the battle field when cut of from command, and, the resources and industrial might of "Spacious Skies, and Amber Waves of Grain." Maybe that veiwpoint makes me also one of your "Crack Pots.

Finally: re- your >>>Why was Silver *mentioned* in the FDR-Order, but didn't in-fact occur.?.<<< My "Copy" of the executive order of 5 Apr. �33 is of the Post office notice put up at the time. Headed at the top by "James Farley, Postmaster General, and signed at the bottom by W Woodwin (Sp. Illegible) Sec. Of the Treasury. I don't find the word Silver any where in it. Is there a more comprehensive formal version of this order.

WARNING! This may be a plot to keep you posting. Heh, heh, heh.
Farfel
Reality Check...Steve Kaplan, Gold Mining Outlook
Date: Wed May 03 2000 10:44
StevenJonKaplan (GATA update from yesterday) ID#280284:
Copyright � 2000 StevenJonKaplan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Normally I don't bother responding to commentary by other gold analysts, but I couldn't help saying something
after reading the GATA daily update from May 2. The GATA author purports to quote from the Sunday New York
Times article in the Money and Business section that compared Barrick with Newmont. The New York Times
article mentions that Newmont's share price has been outperforming Barrick's share price, then spends several
paragraphs explaining why this is irrational, since Barrick's earnings are much stronger and consistent than
Newmont's. The GATA reference mentions the article, but only the part about Newmont's share price
outperformance, thus leaving the impression that the New York Times was endorsing Newmont over Barrick.
This is as misleading as quoting from the U.S. Declaration of Independence by mentioning the fact of British rule
over the American colonies, while conveniently leaving out Jefferson's lengthy argument that such rule was unjust
and must be ended.
---------------


Steve Kaplan's favorite North American gold producer is Barrick Gold, that has effectively hedged over four years of future production. In other words, Barrick is betting (and certainly hoping) for a fall in the price of gold since it is more a hedge fund today than a gold producer and makes profits when the gold price falls where most unhedged gold producers do not.

Keep that in mind whenever you read Mr. Kaplan and his urgent cries to sell gold whenever it begins to get any significant upward momentum going.

Thanks

F*
White Hills
Some listen
To The Stranger, ThaiGold and others Some speak and some listen. To listen is to learn and to speak is to teach. The most amazing part of this forum is that the quality of thought and writing is world class and is only available here and it is free. No where else have I found the TRUTH as offered here. I listen and act. White Hills
Knallgold
Nasdaq
Why can they participate in the Euromarkets merger??
I am highly irritated.No battle between Europe and
Wall Street psychos??

Or is Another right, Gold and the $ can rise together?
MarkeTalk
Market Musings
Stocks are falling rapidly, being sucked down into the next turning point of May 4th-5th per "eclipse theory" as mentioned previously on this site. Personally, I believe the markets could drop until May 10-12th as we all await the probably outcome of Greenspan's next interest rate move. By then, market participants should have a good idea of what he is going to do. Gold and silver are showing signs of life and should be bottoming or have bottomed in this time frame. XAU index jumped 5.47 points (almost 10%) yesterday which is usually a precursor to moves in the actual physical metals. Stay tuned for further market developments.
beesting
The Main Reason Gold Mining Stocks are Down so far Today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/20000503/d.htmlThe Brokerage Firm of Lehman Brothers downgraded many Gold Mining companies today from the classification of Neutral to Underperform. See URL.

Comment:
Doesn't it seem odd that a reclassification occurs after the largest up day on the XAU in a long time?
Also the largest total volume on XAU in a long time.

If someone could see into the future yesterday and was buying shares enmasse driving the share price up...in a weak "Spot" market....and knew that a downgrade would drive share prices down as soon as it was announced.....couldn't that someone make a killing? Sir Nickel62 is it possible to see who the large buyers of Gold shares were the last few days? Does the SEC watch this stuff??

What's interesting is Goldman Sachs stayed clear of the Gold sector on their reclassifications.....could the heat from GATA be having an effect on Goldmans Gold recommendations?

Thai Gold, Stranger,Elwood, and ALL:
All posts are greatly appreciated by this sometimes poster, however," Time is of the Essence" when it comes to responding I and probably many others just don't have enough of it(TIME).
Actually, if everyone responded to every post what kind of a traffic jam would that create???....beesting.
YGM
ThaiGold......Silver Comments....
FWIW.....my take on Silver is that those holding the physical could have massive leverage over holding Au.....
If memory serves me correct I seem to recall an editorial at
Gold-Eagle (and also I believe Vronsky once stated) that Silver has historicaly traded on a 20/1 ratio to Gold.........
So with that same ratio now @ approximately 55/1 and any major moves in PMs (short squeeze Ted Butler sees in not too distant future) Silver Bugs could stand to reap FAR GREATER rewards......Just my opinion for what it's worth...
YGM.....

PS:------and then there's the confiscation issue of Gold to think about..........
TheStranger
Farfel
The bottom half of your #29846 is a marvelous example of what you are talking about in the top half of your #29846. I know you have a vendetta against these people, but you should take care lest it shade your judgement. I also know you are aware that the latest public information from this company is emphatically clear on the point that Barrick is now leveraged TO the the market and not against it. If you have proof to the contrary, I suggest you state it or quit defaming this company of which I, for one, am an owner.

One thing a successful investor learns over time is to take ownership of his own losses.

Gandalf the White
GC00M blasts off UPWARDS at close of COMEX session !
<;-)
Cavan Man
The Stranger
Have you any thoughts on silver?
Farfel
@ STRANGER....Barrick Gold, STILL a GOLD SHORT...

TheStranger (05/03/00; 12:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29852)
Farfel
The bottom half of your #29846 is a marvelous example of what you are talking about in the top half of your #29846. I
know you have a vendetta against these people, but you should take care lest it shade your judgement.

Farfel says:

No vendetta, I could care less at this point. I am simply posting impassive reality checks, a favorite form of debate common amongst Kitcoites. In other words, I am following these guys and noting when they are speaking BS and providing that info to other gold investors. After all, many there did the same to me for the past few years, so now I am happy to reciprocate.

Stranger says:

I also know you are
aware that the latest public information from this company is emphatically clear on the point that Barrick is now leveraged
TO the the market and not against it.

Farfel Says:

You are categorically wrong, Stranger. Barrick has purchased a relatively small position in gold calls (around $50 million, I believe) at low gold strike prices (below 350) in both 2000 and 2001. If you think that little development suddenly makes a company that has hedged approximately four years of future production a "gold bull," then you are completely full of bull.

There is absolutely no compelling evidence to indicate Barrick is desirous of higher gold prices. Until they close their enormous forward positions which require delivery of REAL PHYSICAL GOLD (as opposed to a relatively minor derivative long position in gold that is for CASH SETTLEMENT), then they are and remain a GOLD SHORT, more a hedge fund, less a gold producer, a de faction bullion bank.

Sorry man, you're wrong...again.

Thanks

F*

P.S. For those gold investors who wish to stimulate the XAU today, I recommend continued sales of Barrick and conversion into other UN-hedged/largely UN-hedged gold producers on the XAU.
Black Blade
PM bear coming out of hibernation?
I haven't been around much the last couple of days. It is the time of year when some producers hand out their attendance and safety awards. This is my favorite time of year since I purchase gold at spot. Sometimes they hand out silver. This last couple of weeks I have bought 32.5 ounces of gold from Barrick miners. The typical response is, I've worked for this company for X years and all they give me is a half-ounce of gold! Hey, thats OK, I'll buy it. Farfel will appreciate this, on the front of the coin is an image of 3 (presumably) miners, with the inscription to the effect "Teamwork, Integrity, etc." A few weeks ago I purchased half ounce wafers from Placer Dome. I even got one of their year 2000 rounds. I may be getting some more Barrick rounds, and even some Echo Bay silver rounds this week. My point is that even the miners don't appreciate PMs now. This signals to me that we must be near the bottom of this bear market in PMs. Buy when their is blood in the streets! Buy low and sell high. Or, as the black widow (aka Witch of Wall Street) used to say, "Buy cheap, sell dear". The markets look a bit ragged today. But then gold is up $4.60. I sense that the tide is turning fellow knights and ladies.
Farfel
@STRANGER, one final point re: Barrick
Tell me one other thing, my Barrick guru.

Who is the counterparty to Barrick's gold call position?

If you tell me that it is Goldman Sachs, then it makes me very suspicious.

After all, Barrick is a Goldman client. So what if they have made an arrangement?

What if Goldman told Barrick to buy the gold calls (in order to get the goldbug investors off its back, you know those goldbug pests who invested in Barrick because they wanted the gold price to RISE someday)?

If the gold calls expire worthless since Goldman and its friends make sure gold never breaches the 310 level, then Barrick simply loses its gold call cash premium (I think its around $50 million) BUT MAINTAINS ITS ALMOST FOUR YEARS OF HEDGED PHYSICAL GOLD POSITION! So think of the gold call purchases as a kind of insurance policy that both the party and counterparty hope will never be exercised.

Not bad, huh? What's a $50 million cash loss to a major gold hedger especially if (maybe) the loss can be applied to fees owed to Goldman? Is it possible that Goldman and its client made such an arrangement?

Hmmmmm? Just wondering, just asking questions. Don't really know for sure. Only thing I do know is this: neither Goldman nor Barrick will win any national integrity awards soon as far as I am concerned.

But let me tell you something, if it smells rotten and fishy, then it probably is rotten fish.

Thanks

F*
TheStranger
Cavan Man
I don't know very much about silver. Sorry.
YGM
Reg Howe Latest....Don't Miss It!
http://www.goldensextant.com/May 3, 2000.
" House of Morgan: From Gold Bugs to Paper Hangers"
TheStranger
Farfel
If all this is about something being said over at Kitco, why are you posting it here?
Farfel
@STRANGER, I am banished from KITCO...
And I respect the decision.

But I discovered that most Kitcoites read USA GOLD, and vice versa.

It is my impression gold investors fall into two categories, namely those who deny it and those who admit it.

Thanks

F*

YGM
JP Morgan & Barrick......
Excerpts from Reg Howe....Morgan's position alone equals some one and one-half years of total world gold production. Coincidentally or not, the total position now exceeds total official U.S. gold reserves of around 8140 tonnes.............................

But even more extraordinary than the increases in total gold derivatives in the last half of 1999 were their increasing concentration in one bank: Morgan. Prior to 1999, Morgan had never held more than about $20 billion in total gold derivatives, nor more than 28% of the total outstanding for all banks. But beginning in the second quarter of 1999, Morgan took on a much larger role in the under one year maturities, possibly presaging the the British gold sales. Then, during the last half of 1999, Morgan more than doubled its total gold derivatives, taking them from $18.4 billion to $38.1 billion, amounting to 43% of the total for all banks. What is more, Morgan's over 40% dominance stretched across all maturities. In the fourth quarter alone, it increased its gold derivatives with maturities over one year by more than 80% to $17.1 billion from $9.4 billion, which may well answer the question of who sold Barrick the calls.
Black Blade
SteveH Re: msg #29827
Very interesting account. If this had occurred in England, the Barbarian Brits would have cryed out for the poor robber and demand the incarceration of the victim. Wow! that is interesting. Reminds me of the book and film entitled "A Clockwork Orange". What the Hell is up with that government in England. To top it off, they sell their financial security (aka gold sales) and place themselves at risk if the ecomonies of the world tank. Maybe the Brits enjoy being victimized (sort of like the Peoples Republic of California). Also, I read a report that had the crime report results for Australia. Interesting that the Aussie government is at a loss to explain why violent crime rates have exploded upward since gun ownership was made illegal. Wish that I could find that report again. Maybe some of our friends in Oz could lead me to it.
Cavan Man
ORO
I'm not bright enough to understand why but didn't ORO make the point that US (bullion) banks would be assuming much of if not most of all the gold derivative paper; that Euro baks were (a German Bank) pulling away?

Was it FOA and can someone help me understand why?

Thanks....CM
TownCrier
HEADLINE: Germany's Starbatty Urges Delay of Euro Notes and Coins
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=AORBmtBPIR2VybWFuAfter first failing in efforts to block Germany's entry to the monetary union in 1998, economics professor and euro critic Joachim Starbatty is now pushing for a delay of the January 1st, 2002 introduction of physical euro currency, saying, "The clock must be stopped until the currency union is politically and economically sufficiently secured so that a failure can be excluded."

Bloomberg indicated that Mr. Starbatty
"said the ECB should stop confusing investors with its so-called two-
pillar strategy and make up its mind instead whether to target its
rate policy at inflation or at money supply growth."

From The Tower's perspective, we can see why the ECB will not allow itself to be pinned down to one particular "guiding light" of monetary policy. Despite the skeptics, the fact remains that the ECB must allow for the potential evolution in use of the euro beyond the euroland region. And to be sure, the montary policy associated with prudent stewardship of a regional currency would not be suitable for the same currency were its role to broaden to that of having a significant presence in world reserves and usage.
Beowulf
Interesting day
Did Ben over at Gold-eagle do it again? Monday he said 48 hours and the market would tank again. To me it looks like he called it right.

I also found it amusing that the manipulators had run out of bullets to fire at us gold bugs and then shake everything up just before opening in the U.S. this morning by throwing a gernade into the crowd and downgrading almost all the major gold miners. Interesting that Barrick wasn't on the list. I guess they are really desperate since that Swiss gold sales stuff is getting old really fast. How many times have that used that in the last two weeks? Nobody cares about the swiss sale anymore and it wasn't scaring people, so Pop goes the pin and they chuck the gernade into the mining sector. All I can say about that is THANK YOU, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER!! Wish I had some money at my broker to pick some shares up cheap.

-Beowulf
Econoclast
Thai Gold
If you're still around...
I loved your post about Thai Gold--very moving story.

One reason that there wasn't silver confiscation might have been simple logistics. A few pounds of gold brought into a bank or otherwise confiscated can be quite valuable. Silver on the other hand, is not nearly as precious so maybe the gov't simply didn't want to have to cart around truckloads full of silver when they could simply confiscate a small safe full of gold.

Hello Forum Members...
I'm here lurking but have been very busy trying to make dollars so I can buy more gold. I am getting the feeling that time is growing short for accumulation.
Christopher
Cavan man
Good afternoon C.M.,
I believe that it was FOA speaking about that, and it had to do with the fact that when the Euro came into place there would be no need for the foreign CB's to hold the POG in check(and provide life support for the Dollar.) My understanding was that they would finally step away at some point(coinciding with the EURO?), let the Dollar expire as the paper GOLD carry trade dried up, and allow Physical Gold to find its natural value.

If I have mistated the facts, I trust the Knights will step in and point us both in the right direction.

Christopher
Black Blade
Thai Guy
I just finished reveiwing the last couple of days posts. I would say hang out, let's have a few virtual reality beers, and watch events unfold. I for one enjoy your posts. We all have different takes on how events occur in the PM world. After all isn't it fun to read Stranger's and Farfel's battles of wits and ideas? And you get to glean some very interesting info. Isn't that why we are here? to learn and exchange ideas that is. I think that you get a bit twisted in some posts (I really like it too!). Hell, some of my friends nick-named me incorrigable(sp). We are all twisted! We are gold bugs right? True contrarians that cut against the grain. So take care and stay on board!
TheStranger
Farfel
I respect the decision, too. (I'M JUST KIDDING!)
It is their loss and our gain, if you ask me.

Still, with respect to Barrick, you are guessing at what you do not know for sure. If you are right, Randall Oliphant may wind up in jail for fraud. And for what? So that he could pull one over on his own stockholders? It doesn't add up.

On the other hand, if Barrick is now leveraged TO gold, as their most recent press releases on the subject categorically (your word) declare, then the stock may be a rare value indeed.

As to my being wrong "again", I have no idea what you mean.

Leigh
ced_s
Did you read the latest e-mail from LeMetropoleCafe? Bill Murphy reprinted your letter for everyone to read!
TownCrier
Additional remark to MK's morning market report on gold sale totals...
USAGOLD (Sir MK) said:
"As it now stands, of the 2000 tonnes in gold sales agreed upon by the world's central bankers vis a vis the Washington Agreement, the Swiss will sell 1300 tonnes, the Dutch will sell 100 tonnes this year and another 200 tonnes over the remaining four years of the accord, and the United Kingdom will sell 365 tonnes. That amounts to 1965 of the 2000 tonnes agreed upon. There will be few if any official-sector surprises over the next four years -- a bullish backdrop for gold investors in the weeks and months to come."

Not mentioned in the commentary above, but certainly in need of inclusion is the Austrian sales that were also recently announced...largely to feed the Austrian Mint it would seem. Thirty tonnes were allocated to other parties in 1999 on a forward basis, and the indication is that 60 more tonnes must be allocated within the framework of the Washington Agreement prior to September 2004. Given MK's accurate figures, we can see that the 60 tonnes from Austria not only rounds out the full 2000 tonne Washington Agreement allotment, but actually puts the figure over by exactly 25 tonnes...the equivalent of one typical UK auction allotment.
ORO
Wiz - PPT inactive
There was no sign of PPT action on the XAU or the HUI. The short squeeze in these stocks at yesterday's last hour (particularly SA ADRs), however, has loosened and put prices back into normal trend.

Gold paper markets:
Lease rate behavior indicates:
There was producer selling
There was spec short covering
No sign of massive dumping (yet)

Pt and Pd are being driven by a physical short squeeze of the type that closed down TOCOM Pd trading. Paper is being sold into the ground while physical can't be had. Familliar scenario? Did not FOA/ANOTHER indicate that was how gold will go?

Stock market saw some possible PPT pumping towards the close.

Currencies - still waiting for the next BIS release. If trends continue as before, there should be a 20% expansion in Euro debt and cash outstanding coupled with a further deterioration in the dollar debt position. The dollar spike indicates that the US current accounts deficit is not large enough to substitute for the big float deflation.

Non US dollar debt is most probably deflating now, going from the anemic 7% growth rate to negative rates - i.e. contraction.

The Big Float X-M3 figure (X denoting outside the US) was contracting by 1.5% in the Q3 statistics. If the last trend held, then we would probably have a further 3-5% contraction at annual rates. This would bring the dollar deficit in the global bank system (outside the US) to a year 2000 deficit of $500 billion to $600 billion. Without an investment fund flow reversal, the US current accounts will supply only some $400 billion, perhaps slightly more if we have another spurt of consumer buying here in the US.

The $100-200 billion deficit may end up being covered by financial flows leaving the US. The spike in the dollar is a clear indicator that the current rates of trade deficits and income flow are not enough. Balance would require some unwinding of the foreign investment in the US, or of the carry trades into the US. Alternatively, CB selling of dollars could help. So far, only Italy and France are selling dollars, the Budesbank is refraining from action, just selling its interest income. BOJ was buying like crazy at the end of last year and in the first quarter.

Barring a retraction of investment flows from abroad, driven by reversal in relative interest rates or corporate return on assets, (which are both unlikely still, though corporate returns will lag if the stock market stops rising), the US trade and income deficit can grow to $450 billion before dollar weakness would show up.

If the ECB or the BOJ raise rates so as to reverse the balance with the US, then the US will suffer a withdrawal of funds that would eradicate the financial markets. In order to maintain a downdraft in the Euro, US rates must rise at least twice as quickly as Euro rates.
Farfel
@STRANGER, please closely examine these two APH posts again
Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56
APH ( Trading - Gold ) ID#7223:
"Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a
little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed
the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low
ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could
happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.

------------------------------------------------------


Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11
APH ( Trading ) ID#7223:
Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up did
more harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold are
still ahead.

----------

Farfel says:


Now isn't it interesting to note that seven days ago, he declared that gold would dive from 270 and drop under 250, then reverse violently back.

However, in fact gold continues to move up (now around 278 spot), negating his analysis.

So today he makes another extremely negative gold projection for gold below 250 BUT THIS TIME DOES NOT MENTION HIS EARLIER FORECAST OF A VIOLENT REVERSAL BACK? Why the omission of such pertinent info if he is trying to offer impartial chart analysis? Answer: he wants to scare investors thereby realizing his projections.

The sad thing is these guys attain guru status on gold forums and gurus can create self-fulfilling prophecies if they are right enough times and people forget when they are completely wrong. Technicians make so many calls from one day to the next that hardly anybody can remember their predictions.

These guys have been doing this now for several years, all the while calling these concerted gold scare assaults: "chart analysis." I say, nonsense, it is gold shorting utilizing biased technical analysis IMHO.


Thanks

F*
ced_s
Leigh, thanks, I hadn't noticed
It's my feeling TPTB have to hide their manipulations from
the general public. I would like to see the more gifted
writers in all the gold related forums submitt letters to
their newspapers. Maybe the politicians would be forced to
take notice. I hope my letter just broke the ice enough to tempt others to jump in.
Thanks again
Ed
Farfel
@STRANGER re: APH forecast...last point.
And the worst thing is this:

He completely reinvents his April 26 forecast by stating today: "yesterday's anticipated rally off the low 270's."

What is he talking about? As per his post a week ago, he never anticipated a rally off the low 270's, none whatsoever. He essentially believed gold was headed straight for a level below 250. I mean, I can read, can you?

No doubt once it reached a sub-250 price, then he would conveniently forget to mention any violent reversal again, and probably offer yet another projection for gold to move toward 210 and so forth and so on.

It is nothing more than spin, reshaped constantly in a manner that depends on the forgetfulness of the readers.

But call a spade a spade, it is gold short spin cast as neutral analysis.

And every time one of these "gurus" is vindicated, another nail is hammered into gold's coffin.

Isn't it time to throw out the coffin and make gold purchases because it simply makes compelling sense today especially given the idiocy running rampant in the mainstream stocks?

Thanks

F*
Harley Davidson
(No Subject)

Well well well. I'm just catching up on the posts from the last couple of days and there sure has been a lot going on and I would like to respond, not in any particular order.

Elwood!!!, a sincere well done on your web site. High scores for content and presentation. You deserve a full membership to the secret society of Web Masters extraodinare. Unfortunately, the only other member, that I know of, is our very own Town Crier so you are in good company! Personally, I know just enough to be dangerous. (smile)

Sir Cavan Man, your msg# 29799
Nicely done, brother. Believe it or not, an accurate definition of "the Church" is not common knowledge. Probably directly proportional to the number of people who read, and study, the bible.

The Farfel meister, first I want to say I look forward to, and enjoy, your posts...most of the time. However, when they take on the characteristic of ad hominem attack towards a "fellow knight", I come away disappointed as you are capable of so much more. Such style only detracts from the reason and logic of the argument you otherwise present so well.

I doubt that The Stranger is a Barrick guru. I don't believe The Stranger thinks he is a Barrick guru. So such reference is either sarcastic and intended to inflame, or simply inaccurate and ultimately brings discredit to the author.

On another thought, I didn't know it was possible for anyone to do anything that could result in being banned from Kitco. I don't know why and its not my business. Just know it would be a loss to many if such were to happen here.

Sir Tai Gold, you have probably forgotten more about the subjects discussed here than I will ever know.

Sir White Hills put it very well in his msg#: 29847: "Some speak and some listen. To listen is to learn and to speak is to teach. The most amazing part of this forum is that the quality of thought and writing is world class and is only available here and it is free. No where else have I found the TRUTH as offered here. I listen and act."

I like to quote others because they usually do a much better job of expressing what I think or feel.
Bottom line? Don't judge how much your appreciated by the volume or quality of response you get to your posts. What you have to say touches all of those who read it; those who, like your self, post here as well as the countless people who simply lurk.

To all, thank you for all the thoughts and insights you so freely share.
Farfel
@HARLEY DAVIDSON...re: The Stranger
No ad hominem intended toward the Stranger, you misinterpret. Sarcasm yes! But defintely no ad hominem.

We go way back and have had many interesting fiery discussions on economics topics.

In fact, I am expecting the Stranger to arrive for a great dinner my wife just cooked up...the only problem is he is a stranger so I have no idea who we are waiting for.
(ho, ho, ho)

Thanks

F*

Farfel
@HARLEY DAVIDSON...re: my banishment from KITCO
Resulted from my loss of emotional control, a kind of Tourettes Syndrome that often afflicts long beleaguered, long suffering gold investors.

Bart Kitner did the right thing, he has to control his forum and preserve proper decorum.

I was a bad boy and when I told my wife, she spanked me.

Rather enjoyed it, I must say.

Thanks

F*
Harley Davidson
Sir Farfel...
Well, what ever you do...keep that sense of humor. Spanking, indeed!
TheStranger
Farfel
Yes, I agree. From what you have shown us, Mr. APH is revising his record as he goes along. As I almost never visit the Kitco forum, I do not recall the APH handle.

However, ANYONE who tries to call day-to-day movements in anything is waisting your time. I posted last night about how I think the next few days in the stock market are going to rattle some teeth, but that sort of thing is always just conjecture, no matter who it is from.

I know you know all of this, David. I guess I am just making conversation. Anyway, thank you for making the point. If I had an investment forum I think I would allow lots of hystrionics and maybe even name-calling. But I would be quick to eject anybody who deliberately tried to mislead. To hell with decorum, I want the truth.
TheStranger
Harley
Sorry, Harley. I only just now read your post. I appreciate your support, but Farfel's right. We are old friends. Somebody once said we should take our debates off-site, and maybe they are right. We are both given to hyperventilation but neither means any disrespect to the room. Anyway, thanks for coming to my defense and sorry for the distraction.
Harley Davidson
Stranger...
Personally, I prefer decorum and truth, and took the opportunity to "vote" my preference. You said "But I would be quick to eject anybody who deliberately tried to mislead." I say, Absolutely! And I'm sure the rulers of this forum can and will speak out as the need requires.
SteveH
Gold up $1.9
Does that make $6 in the last three days? She is moving up under the radar screen.

Harley Davidson
Stranger...
And I just read your latest post. 'Nuf said, I guess.

Thanks.
aunuggets
Farfel, Stranger, others RE: APH and other "forecasts"
I think many of us have come to the realization that most "forecasts", whatever their source, when linked to "technical analysis" are usually, at some point, "hedged" with opposing forecasts, blind statements, SWAG indicators (scientific wild assed guessing), ad nauseum. For all the graphs, spikes, heads, dips, spikes, peaks, waves, etc., find ONE that is CONSISTENTLY correct just 51 percent of the time, and you're all set. Unfortunately, technical analysis can only happen after the fact, making it nothing more than "history". Though we may learn as "history repeats", we also learn as "history" does not ! Forecasters and Fortune Tellers are a dime a dozen in all walks of life, and once the "spin" is "technically analyzed" (grin), the little man is magically exposed behind the curtain. But remember that the "Wizards" cannot give you anything you have had all along........your common sense.

Gandalf the White
aunuggets (05/03/00; 18:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 29886)
you pontificate "But remember that the "Wizards" cannot give you anything you have had all along........your common sense."
******HEAR HEAR !! This Wiz only asks that one uses their "common sense" !
<;-)
TownCrier
Overdue thoughts for Sir ThaiGold...
http://www.usagold.com/HallDiscussion.htmlYou remarked recently:
"...And I believe that it is essential, nay the obligation, of posters
here in this forum to see and hear and debate all sides of the Gold
and PM issue. Lest they make dumb mistakes as I did. In spades."

And then in a following post you added:
"Is it any wonder that many posters lose interest and fade away from
the Forum. It seems often merely a Mutual Admiration Society, which
remains closed to new-ideas and new-thinkings. Unless a poster is one
of the In-Crowd, or FOA-Worshipper, he is relegated to Court-Jester
status, totally ignored, or simply considered a CrackPot."

There is no question in my own mind that the dynamic of the Forum is enhanced considerably by the input of new posters, especially those novices that are newly arrived with simple thoughts and questions about the world of gold economics. In regard to your comment that the Forum "seems often merely a Mutual Admiration Society, which remains closed to new-ideas and new-thinkings" I am inclined to think otherwise, and the link I have provided is ample evidence supporting my contrary opinion. Given the unique conditions of the gold market has it has evolved in modern days, there are relatively speaking very few individuals that can lay claim to a reasonable grasp of the general gold market dynamics, and far fewer with comprehensive understanding of the subtle yet important intricacies. Whether they realize it or not, it is my opinion that many of the regular posters here know more about the intricacies of the gold sector than most financial analysts understand their own chosen field of employment. I expect that some of these posters came to the table with their comprehension already in hand, while others attained that grasp while here. I think it is fair to say that they (myself included) have all reached new levels of understanding by the information and opinions shared here. (I am equally certain that there are silent non-posters among us who have the same or greater "expert" status in the realm of gold market comprehension.)

As it is, with the aid of the many fine thinkers that willingly share their thoughts, the body of knowledge and insight into the more obscure elements of the gold market and international monetary intrigue has evolved and developed to a remarkable level throughout the brief life of this discussion forum. To the casual observer, the regular posters here may indeed seem like a cliquish (clique-ish?) group of a "Mutual Admiration Society" as you say. But that is understandable given that many of them have been here since the earliest days and are all working toward a common goal of yet greater comprehension with few alternative avenues to get there than reliance upon each other. Such is the nature of this specialized field of study. (That is not to imply that it is beyond the common-sense ability of the world's smallest and humblest people to engage in the prudent and natural act of buying gold as a wealth asset. Such an equation solves itself with little need for debate on the matter.)

Seeing that there has been distinct progress in the evolution of the forum's collective fundamental understanding in both scope and depth over a period of time through building upon each others efforts at "stretching the envelope", it should be understandable that some of the "regulars" in the "M.A.S." do not take the effort upon themselves to revisit past items of discussion. This is one area where the newer visitors can provide a very valuable service. By asking the basic questions, they give a chance for some of the others to contrubute to the overall effort of getting EVERYONE over the top. When a team is scaling a cliff, it is up to each man to help the one below. And in monitoring the exchange as these most fundamental issues are revisited, it gives those that are "farther up" a chance to retest or reaffirm the validity of past progress. You just never know when someone "down below" might catch a glimpse of a faster or easier route to the top, thus benefiting the whole team in yet another way. Those who are higher may indeed find that a retracement and redirection is necessary thanks to those who are arriving new to the climb.

As for me, I am just the camp director at the base of the cliff, providing weather reports and supplies to the real climbers. And what is the forecast, you ask? The same as it has been for months..."It is a beautiful day to join the climb. Please feel free to join the team and travel at your own pace."

Seeing that you have not been satisfied with the efforts/assistance of the others, perhaps I may offer a thought or two. In a recent post you asked:

"Would/Could a well-managed GoldMine be of that
category.?. Is a GoldMine not the *only* source of new Gold.?.
Will the owners/shareholders not be rewarded and partake of that.?.
Are they not frequently/regularly paid these dividends of wealth.?.
My Newmont shares do so. What of your/his/her/their, Kruggerands.?."

I see your point. Please recognize that you are comparing plants to the fruits they bear. It may indeed be satisfying for a person to own some branches of the cherry tree for the dividends of flowers that they provide...which may or may not be successfully transformed into the real weath of cherries. Very few people, however, feel that the cherries they choose to acquire by any means are inferior because they do not themselves pay the dividends of cherry trees. (Although if you think about it, you will surely see that being real wealth, through "capital appreciation" and purposeful intent, cherries can in fact produce a cherry tree if desired by the owner of the cherries.) So it is with gold mines and gold.

Your final queston was:
"One last (serious) question to ponder, that puzzles me greatly:
In the FDR Confiscation Proclamation, (you posted earlier) it *mentions*
silver; but silver was apparently *not* confiscated.!. I'm wonder why.?.
Can you or anyone in the Forum shed some light on the Non-Confiscation
of Silver, back in the 1933 era.?.
And so, for those amongst us inclined toward "pre-1933" Gold coins,
wouldn't they be wise to possibly consider silver instead.?. Or even
perhaps, yuk, Silver Mining Shares..."

To assist with my response, allow me to turn to an e-mail message I answered a number of weeks ago when someone had asked the similar good question: "I understand the point of owning uncirculated pre-33 Liberties and Saints. However, with respect to silver, were uncirculated Morgan Dollars exempted from the government confiscation in 1933? What is your ideas on holding uncirculated Morgan Dollars at this time?"

The following text is from my some of my thoughts offered in reply. And as I suggested to this other individual, you may or may not find my commentary to your satisfaction. I hope at the least it serves as a springboard to your further thought and investigation on the matter.

The 1933 Executive Order signed by FDR called in the gold coins and bullion,
subject to certain conditions and exemptions.

Silver coins, circulated or not, were not of interest to the government at
that time, and remained in circularion until the end of 1964. You can verify
that by looking at any jar of older coins you might have. Dimes, quarters,
half-dollars, and dollars dated 1965 and later all have a copper center with
a nickel-alloy cladding. (From the edge they look like Oreo cookies.) If you
have any dated 1964 (or earlier), they will be solid silver alloy. These are a
rare find in your daily change because they have been hoarded out of
circulation. (A phenomenon first described by Sir Thomas Gresham several
hundred years ago...known as Gresham's Law.) Rarity notwithstanding, the
very existance of these silver coins until 1964 is your modern proof that
silver was not desired by the government...it was simply not needed to
settle international trade, and was not the fundamental source of difficulty
when bank runs plagued the nation in the late 1920's and early 1930's.

The only reason silver Morgan dollars (circulated or not) did not survive
until 1964 along with all of the other coinage is simply that the government
changed the design of the coin...just as they did with many others. Remember
the old silver Mercury Dimes? They became the silver Roosevelt dimes until
1964. Similary, the silver Walking Liberty Half-dollars were redesigned to
become the silver Benjamin Franklin/Liberty Bell half-dollars until they in turn
gave way for the Kennedy half-dollar. The Silver Morgans became silver
Liberties, (off-hand I'm not sure what year) which then became the Eisenhower
silver dollar, and eventually after the 1965 switch to copper/nickel they
were replaced by the Susan B. Anthony, and now the Sacajawea(sp?).

My personal opinion on holding the Morgans is that it is perfectly fine for
individuals that understand the intricacies of the numismatic world (rare
coin collecting). As a bulk investment or diversification into precious
metals, silver bullion is much more accessible and liquid if silver is what
you feel you must have. But once again, my personal opinion is that gold
reigns supreme. By selecting the competitively-priced historic gold coins
over the modern bullion coins, you simply give yourself the added protection
of coming under the umbrella of precedent against any future attempt at a
gold confiscation. You would be more likely to lawfully retain ownership and
possession of your gold, and would profit/benefit from any subsequent run-up
in the price of gold.

[Under government rules of takings, the property owner must be fairly compensated for the value of the property being taken. And unlike standard bullion coins, the owners of historic coins (such as the pre-33 coins offered by MK through Centennial) could easily keep the appraisal process tied up for years arguing over the artistic and historic merits and fair price for each and every single pre-33 gold coin...a hassle the government will not likely invite even in the most urgent and dire of situations. At current low premiums, this is a very small price to pay to accomplish peace of mind against confiscation...much better (in my opinion) that the alternative of owning no gold at all in favor of something else that would be perceived as less desirable for confiscation.]

I hope this helps.

Thank you for your interest in our services at USAGOLD and Centennial
Precious Metals!
SHIFTY
N.Y PONZI
Nasdaq 3,707.31 + Dow 10,480.13 = 14,187.44 divide by 2 = 7,093.72 Ponzi

The Ponzi was down 164.56 N.Y Ponzi points !

aunuggets
Gandalf the White
My own "common sense" sir, dictates that I occasionally circumvent "political correctness" for the purpose of giving others something to consider. "If we always agreed, one of us would be unnecessary......" (grin)
Farfel
@AUNUGGETS...APH is not a happy camper
APH writes:

Date: Wed May 03 2000 20:04
APH (re: Farfel) ID#7223:
Copyright � 2000 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Once again farfel posts only half the truth, this time he posted the two ends but failed to provide the middle, he
coppied the 4/26 & 5/3 posts but missed, I assume purposely, the 4/29 post referring to the bounce. enough of
farfel.

Date: Sat Apr 29 2000 13:11
APH ( Trading ) ID#7223:
Gold - Anytime in the month of May June Gold will be a major low risk long term entry below 250 with a
probable bottom
in the 244 area. 272 -270 will provide a bounce but will likely not hold, if the xau were holding or going up now I
be more
encouraged. The gold funds really are not holding to badly. Any scale in buying now in the funds is subject to a
10%
drawdown, you nay want live with that in case of a surprise up move.

---------


Farfel Says:


But here's the problem, APH, on April 26th, you dramatically declared to all gold investors at Kitco that gold would plummet to below 250 with a dramatic reversal.

So if I am operating under your influence as one of your "disciples," then I would have sold my gold/XAU holdings that very day of April 26 and missed this recent nice gold jump.

So what good does your little April 29th update do me? Especially since you posted it on a Saturday, a non-trading day?

It's too late, APH, as one of your disciples, I've already sold my gold and my XAU on account of your technical babble influences. I did so on April 26 and worse yet, I didn't even bother to read Kitco over the weekend, so I missed your "hedged bet."

Now you tell me over the weekend that a bounce is coming?

APH, just admit that you often post contradictory forecasts. Of course, most technicians do it, so that way they can pull out any one of several prognostications they've made over a period of several days and say, "See, I predicted correctly and here's my post proving it."

It is total duplicity, nothing less.

Thanks

F*
Gandalf the White
SIR Aunuggets' "challenge" ?
I hesitate to dare say that I agree with Thou ?
<;-)
aunuggets
Gandalf the White
HA HA HA HA HA.....Check mate ! (kidding) As all the others who share their thoughts, ideas, and knowledge here on the forum, I sincerely appreciate all of your contributions.
aunuggets
Farfel - APH is not a happy camper !
Oh, well ! 8^o
PH in LA
"... as the euro slides towards zero" ???
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/
"The big news today was in the foreign exchange arena, where the euro resumed its slide toward zero, as it briefly broke 89 cents and closed at around 89 1/2 cents. There were some rumblings out of Europe about the potential for a "no" vote out of Denmark, which could be followed by a "no" vote out of Sweden, followed by the United Kingdom abandoning any thought of an EMU referendum. So the crisis is beginning to build for the euro.

"The paper it's printed on. . . Regular readers know that after I got head-faked for the first two weeks of the euro's existence, I've been a pretty severe critic of the ECB authorities. As I've often stated, I felt there was a decent chance that in tough economic times the euro would come unstuck, as it was hard to see all the countries pulling on the same oar. The fact that it's behaved so poorly in boom times has always struck me as a harbinger of trouble to come. Recently, the authorities drew a line in the sand at 95 or 96 and I stated at the time that they would be tested, and they are being tested.

"The question is: Will they figure out a way to stabilize the euro and turn it into a real currency, or is it going to disintegrate before our very eyes? Obviously, that would have ramifications for gold and the dollar. I also believe that after we finish destroying the euro, the dollar will be next, which seems hard to believe, but I think you can count on that happening as well." William Fleckenstein


This looks like a pretty conventional analysis of the Euro as it must be looking to many that don't follow the interpretations offered at this forum. Of course, when all is said and done, much of what powers the markets is little more than perception, anyway. Actually, I greatly prefer ORO's thoughts (even though I often come away with the impression that I only half understand them). And certainly, FOA would hardly concur with most of Fleckenstein's comments. Fleck does have a certain eye-catching turn of phrase, though... "the euro resumed its slide toward zero..."

Sure seems like something has to give in this arena, though, and soon. Today's Spanish peseta traded at 186.5 per US dollar, a rate that I have never seen, even since my first trip to Spain in 1985 when I recall a rate of 185 pesetas per US dollar. Here's hoping that FOA shines some light on this subject when he next posts.

PH in LA
TheStranger
aunuggets and Gandalf
Actually, I would advise just the opposite. Read all you can get your hands on, learn to remember who said what and then hope to heck you have read enough. I am not sure I can even define common sense, but I sure as heck know what knowledge is.
canamami
The Euro
I sometimes read Peter Cook of the Globe (though not recently), who often addresses Euro issues, and listen to Don Coxe's telephone conference calls, and he often deals with the Euro. I also have my own training, which addresses certain aspects of the euro.

Various points:

1. Euroland is substantially a closed economy, so a declining currency is not as serious as one would think. Within Euroland, things are fairly stable, and other countries do want in, notwithstanding the decline in the euro. (An aside: one concern I had with FOA's theories concerning hyperinflation is that the US is also substantially a closed economy, so even a big decline in the $US is not as important....similar to Euroland and the decline of the Euro).

2. The euro was created by conservative European governments; the current governments are now almost all (if not all) socialist. They are not as committed to the euro, and if they are committed it is only insofar as they may believe the euro advances their agenda. There may be friction if conservatives start to regain power in several countries. Also, the new leader of the CDU in Germany is an Ossie, and the first Protestant leader of the CDU. She is a nationalist and a populist who wants to take back power from Brussels and Europe generally; more in the old Prussian tradition than in the pan-European tradition of Wessie Catholics like Adenauer and Kohl.

3. There are weak links in Euroland like Italy, which only got in because of fudging the books, crafty leadership, times were good, and the others wanted it in. Now Italy can't stay within the Euro criteria. It can't be let go now. Its weakness undermines other countries' political willingness to toe the line, and generally undermines the Euro's credibility.

4. Euro is now more structurally rigid and socialist due to pan-European institutions. It is certainly more rigid and socialist than the US.

5. Notwithstanding its problems, Euroland runs a trade surplus and has a high savings rate, unlike the US. By these traditional indicia, the Euro is undervalued and should be ready to move up against the dollar.

6. The influx of money from Europe helps hold up the dollar, and helps finance the US boom.

7. When the Euro goes up, the markets go down. If the Euro is weak, the US markets do well. A sudden rise in the Euro could cause a "babybear" in the markets.

8. There may have been signs of capitulation re the Euro; some fund managers no longer bother hedging against its rise. The bottom might be in.

9. Re Oro's theory that dollar-denominated debt is being converted to Euro-denominated debt: How does one ascertain whether this is actually occurring? Are there bank statements, etc., demonstating this trend?
SteveH
Very clear repost
www.kitco.comrepost:

Date: Wed May 03 2000 23:12
JP (Arby-Your question--Why the Dollar is hitting new high's when the bond and equity markets are ) ID#10841:
Copyright � 2000 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
tanking ?
The final phase prior to a financial panic is always identified by a rising Dollar,rising interest rates and tanking equity markets. Why? The dollar is rising because of capital shortages around the globe in Dollar debt instruments. Countries just don't have the Dollars to pay their debts. Some will borrow Dollars at any price, some will default. With foreign currencies tanking,foreign central banks are forced to sell their massive hoard of US treasury bills to meet increased domestic demand for Dollars as well as imposing exchange controls to protect their domestic currencies.. When these Treasury bills are sold on the open market,US interest rates will rise and equity prices will decline. Also, Dollar short covering and rising rates will push the Dollar even higher. Gold is getting ready to move substantially higher as the Dow declines because money coming out of equities is seeking safety. We may be seeing interest rates, the Dollar and gold all rising at the same time as stock prices are declining. After the financial panic is over, say the Dow substantially at lower levels and a massive recession is spreading, the dollar and interest rates will decline to some very low levels and gold will keep on rising.
Chris Powell
Morgan's gold derivative position gets huge
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/446?Reginald H. Howe examines the burgeoning gold
derivative position of Morgan Guaranty Trust Co.
and concludes that the firm probably wouldn't
have taken on such enormous risk without the
encouragement of the U.S. government.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

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schippi
XAU Vs select Gold Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/xaugld3mth.gif 36 out of 38 Select Sectors blood red.
only Gold & Food Up!
Bonedaddy
May I serve as one of the forum Crack Pots?
I really am harmless, but quite mad, just the same. You see, I grew up in a time when cars had large hood ornaments and small monthly payments and families took meals together around the dining room table.
People often got turned down when applying for credit. Teenagers took guns to school..., so they could go bird hunting on the way home.
Childrens faces adorned silver lockets instead of milk cartons.
Boy Scout leaders understood the real meaning of morally "straight".
Money was made out of, or backed by, something of value.
A haircut didn't look like a social experiment.
People dressed as well as they could afford.
Babies didn't have babies.
Underware was worn "under" something.
Perversion could be defined.
There was GOLD in Fort Knox.
Felons served terms in the big house, not the State House.
Sex wasn't fatal.
It took a family, not a village.
A jar of urine didn't pass for art.
Fathers day wasn't so confusing.
It was rare to meet a man who had a weak hand shake and a butt wider than his shoulders.

I am at a terrible disadvantage in todays America. I still think GOLD is money. Obviously, no one in their right mind would agree.
Solomon Weaver
Willo and others..
WilloTheWarthog welcome to our round table....it is refreshing to see some Euroideas looking at USA from your side...from the very subtle difference in your english usage, I suspect, dear Knight that you are personally translating these tidbits for us...if so, Kudos on the work...wie sooscht chunte wir eppis vo der Basler Zititg uuf English uebercho? (pardon my Walliser diitsch)

ThaiGold - great forgiveness for misspellings...and you are a great knight as many have proven to you today. Don't underestimate the extent that your ideas are read and pondered...

YGM - gee you sounded today like you are starting to believe too that "silver is the poor man's gold". I am not so sure that silver will ever revert to historical norms of 20/1. But one indicator is that best cash costs for gold mining run in the range of $180 and for silver in the range of $4 which fits today's ratio. My opinion is that any gold bug would do well to have some silver on hand...then if silver makes a large spike (and attracts the beenie mentality sheeple who storm the pawn shops) you can unload silver at a nice premium and "trade" for gold (no taxes). Back in the Hunt days it seems that people would actually accept junk coins as payment and knew the going rate....Imagine what this level of interest would now do to silver!!! Why buy a lotto ticket when you can buy silver...even the poor man loves to speculate....is there less pride of ownership in silver than gold...for the little guy?

Stranger, ORO, and all....it seems that NEM owners are stepping up to the plate lately....ORO I am always facinated by your pragmatic approach of physical gold as "insurance" but PM derivatives (including stocks) on shorter term plays (keeps life fun and hopefully profitable) I find this recent trend with NEM very bullish for gold because it shows that stock investors (who do not usually read gold sites) are "remembering" the old "wisdom" that gold does well in times of crisis....NEM is already highly leveraged to an upmove in gold...and now it is even responding even with gold down. Gold getting close to 52 week lows and NEM close to 52 week highs!!!..now all we need are some of those lemming journalists who report on trends belatedly to start making comments on why "gold is the place to be". This also reminds me of the fact that the new "golden dollar" has not a single milligram of gold but it's very name is a subtle "remonitization" of gold....this completely debased coin is a reminder of the myth that never really got destroyed..."gold is money".

Town Crier really loved your rock climbing analogy...because rock climbers are fanatics just like gold bugs (smile).

Trail Guide would love to hear your opinions about the rumor known many years back that June 99 (and postponed to June 00) would be a "planned shift" in the "freedom" of gold.

Good night or good morning all

Poor old Solomon
ThaiGold
Thoughts From My Kitchen
Attn: ALL=======================================================================
....
...
..
5-03-2000
To: ALL

It would be remiss of me, if I didn't post a little-something here
tonight in acknowledgement and appreciation to those many fine posters
of this Forum who posted Comments addressed to me during the day.
Time doesn't permit me to respond individually, because I wish to post
this before the Next-Day-Rollover ... only a few minutes away.

So, instead, I'll simply, humbly, address this message to All of You,
and especially those on the following list: (A similar list of other
Lurkers and Knights awaits me in by e-mail InBox).
[The List]
ORO
DK
YGM
SHIFTY
Simply Me
Steve H
Topaz
Au Bug
TheStranger
Skip
Peter Asher
White Hills
Beesting
Econoclast
Balck Blade
Harley Davidson
TownCrier

Certainly, if that isn't a "Who's Who" of this Forum, then I don't know
what is. Add to it, the senders of e-mails, and it rams home the point
to me, that the "M.A.S." is indeed a figment of my imagination.

One of the things that strikes me most about this Forum, is it's Decor
and Resiliency. Like the proverbial Thai KickBoxers in this paragraph:

[KickBoxer Essay--Quote]

Often on a stretcher. He will walk/touch beside it
deeply concerned for the recovery of his vanquished
companion. There will be no TV interview. Nothing
to brag about nor ballyhoo to the fans and media.
Just a quiet, somber, elegant exit from the arena.


[KickBoxer Essay--UnQuote]

And also, like those ever so gentlemanly KickBoxers, we here in the
Forum often get into verbal fisticuffs, yet somehow, for the good of all,
we manage to have compassion, understanding, empathy and concilliation.

We have witnessed that, First-Rate, even here, tonight, between Sir Farfel
and Sir TheStranger. Let there be no mistake about it: We here in this
Forum have our own strong convictions. And we defend those. And yet thru
our marvelous resiliency, eventually absorb the thoughts of others and
adopt/adapt them into our own in some way. And that a good thing. The way
it should be. The way it is. Here.

To be sure, from this outpouring, I shall attempt to remain a small fixture
herein, and post relevance and silliness as seems appropriate or inappropriate,
whichever comes first.

And too, I'd be especially remiss if I did not, at this time, Reach-Out to
FOA/Trail Guide (and to those Knights who strongly believe in his prolific
and profound teachings herein). To simply say: He has taught me much, even
though I often fail to admit that to myself. Please continue, as I apparently
still have much to learn. From you, FOA. And from your many eloquent fans.

So, now, it is time for me to post this heartfelt message to ALL and make:
"Just a quiet, somber, elegant exit from the arena."
For tonight.

My favorite General, Douglas MacArthur said it best: "...I shall return."

Oh... I almost forgot: The Kitchen is cooking a wonderful
old traditional Indian dish tonight: SourGrapes and Crow.
And now it's ready for me to sit down and eat some.


Cordially,

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
============================================================================
ThaiGold
Addendum ...
Add Solomon Weaver to that List.......
...
..
All:

Kindly add Solomon Weaver to that fine List.!.

Thanks.

ThaiGold
====================================================
Peter Asher
Bonedaddy (05/03/00; 23:24:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29901)
GREAT POST!>>> It took a family, not a village. <<<

I was just thinking of this one today. When she said "It takes a village to raise a child" that she left out that part that would have made it true statement --- "Because the family doesn't do it any more.

BTW could you spill a little beans about your posting handle? It really fits you.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Peter Asher
Steve H --Re Gun control
http://www.io.com/~velte/pt.htm& http://www.io.com/~velte/quotes.htm

Found this while on a net search.
aunuggets
TheStranger
Aaah, but putting that knowledge to a useful purpose without common sense......that is the trick.

To question is to seek,
to seek is to learn,
to learn is to know,
to know is to seek -
understanding.

Perhaps "common sense" is simply the ability to bring it all together into a meaningful and sought after conclusion. Reading Bonedaddy's previous post, a painful awareness begins to creep in that "common sense" just ain't as common as it used to be.
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 3, 2000

Rates for Tuesay, May 2, 2000

Federal funds 6.05

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.92
10-year 6.32
20-year 6.39
30-year 5.986.03

upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.02%)

Peter Asher
ThaiGold (05/03/00; 23:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29903)

Welcome back, fine post. Your words and true feelings about this forum followed by a MacArthur quote brought to mind the final lines of his farewell speech at West Point on May 12 1962. I went searching for the text and after finding it and also reading Bonedaddy's post, I decided to post it in its entirety
MacArthur gave the last great speech of his public
life on May 12, 1962, less than two years before he
died. Beset by health problems, MacArthur had
finally begun to show his age. But after accepting
the coveted Sylvanus Thayer Award, he bid
farewell to his beloved West Point with a heartfelt,
emotional address. As one account described it, by
the end of his speech "there were tears in the eyes of
big strapping Cadets who wouldn't have shed one
before a firing squad."

United States Military Academy
West Point, New York
May 12, 1962

General Westmoreland, General Groves,
distinguished guests, and gentlemen of the
Corps:

As I was leaving the hotel this morning, a
doorman asked me, "Where are you bound
for, General?" and when I replied, "West
Point," he remarked, "Beautiful place,
have you ever been there before?"

No human being could fail to be deeply
moved by such a tribute as this. [Thayer
Award] Coming from a profession I have
served so long, and a people I have loved
so well, it fills me with an emotion I
cannot express. But this award is not
intended primarily to honor a personality,
but to symbolize a great moral code - the
code of conduct and chivalry of those who
guard this beloved land of culture and
ancient descent. That is the meaning of
this medallion. For all eyes and for all
time, it is an expression of the ethics of
the American soldier. That I should be
integrated in this way with so noble an
ideal arouses a sense of pride and yet of
humility which will be with me always.

Duty - Honor - Country. Those three
hallowed words reverently dictate what
you ought to be, what you can be, what
you will be. They are your rallying points:
to build courage when courage seems to
fail; to regain faith when there seems to be
little cause for faith; to create hope when
hope becomes forlorn. Unhappily, I
possess neither that eloquence of diction,
that poetry of imagination, nor that
brilliance of metaphor to tell you all that
they mean. The unbelievers will say they
are but words, but a slogan, but a
flamboyant phrase. Every pedant, every
demagogue, every cynic, every hypocrite,
every troublemaker, and, I am sorry to
say, some others of an entirely different
character, will try to downgrade them
even to the extent of mockery and ridicule.
But these are some of the things they do.
They build your basic character, they
mold you for your future roles as the
custodians of the nation's defense, they
make you strong enough to know when
you are weak, and brave enough to face
yourself when you are afraid. They teach
you to be proud and unbending in honest
failure, but humble and gentle in success;
not to substitute words for actions, nor to
seek the path of comfort, but to face the
stress and spur of difficulty and challenge;
to learn to stand up in the storm but to
have compassion on those who fall; to
master yourself before you seek to master
others; to have a heart that is clean, a goal
that is high; to learn to laugh yet never
forget how to weep; to reach into the
future yet never neglect the past; to be
serious yet never to take yourself too
seriously; to be modest so that you will
remember the simplicity of true greatness,
the open mind of true wisdom, the
meekness of true strength. They give you a
temper of the will, a quality of the
imagination, a vigor of the emotions, a
freshness of the deep springs of life, a
temperamental predominance of courage
over timidity, an appetite for adventure
over love of ease. They create in your
heart the sense of wonder, the unfailing
hope of what next, and the joy and
inspiration of life. They teach you in this
way to be an officer and a gentleman.

And what sort of soldiers are those you
are to lead? Are they reliable, are they
brave, are they capable of victory? Their
story is known to all of you; it is the story
of the American man-at-arms. My
estimate of him was formed on the
battlefield many, many years ago, and has
never changed. I regarded him then as I
regard him now - as one of the world's
noblest figures, not only as one of the
finest military characters but also as one
of the most stainless. His name and fame
are the birthright of every American
citizen. In his youth and strength, his love
and loyalty he gave - all that mortality can
give. He needs no eulogy from me or from
any other man. He has written his own
history and written it in red on his enemy's
breast. But when I think of his patience
under adversity, of his courage under fire,
and of his modesty in victory, I am filled
with an emotion of admiration I cannot put
into words. He belongs to history as
furnishing one of the greatest examples of
successful patriotism; he belongs to
posterity as the instructor of future
generations in the principles of liberty and
freedom; he belongs to the present, to us,
by his virtues and by his achievements. In
20 campaigns, on a hundred battlefields,
around a thousand campfires, I have
witnessed that enduring fortitude, that
patriotic self-abnegation, and that
invincible determination which have
carved his statue in the hearts of his
people. From one end of the world to the
other he has drained deep the chalice of
courage.

As I listened to those songs of the glee
club, in memory's eye I could see those
staggering columns of the First World
War, bending under soggy packs, on many
a weary march from dripping dusk to
drizzling dawn, slogging ankle-deep
through the mire of shell-shocked roads,
to form grimly for the attack, blue-lipped,
covered with sludge and mud, chilled by
the wind and rain; driving home to their
objective, and, for many, to the judgement
seat of God. I do not know the dignity of
their birth but I do know the glory of their
death. They died questioning,
uncomplaining, with faith in their hearts,
and on their lips the hope that we would
go on to victory. Always for them - Duty -
Honor - Country; always their blood and
sweat and tears as we sought the way and
the light and the truth.

And 20 years after, on the other side of
the globe, again the filth of murky
foxholes, the stench of ghostly trenches,
the slime of dripping dugouts; those
boiling suns of relentless heat, those
torrential rains of devastating storms; the
loneliness and utter desolation of jungle
trails, the bitterness of long separation
from those they loved and cherished, the
deadly pestilence of tropical disease, the
horror of stricken areas of war; their
resolute and determined defense, their
swift and sure attack, their indomitable
purpose, their complete and decisive
victory - always victory. Always through
the bloody haze of their last reverberating
shot, the vision of gaunt, ghastly men
reverently following your password of
Duty - Honor - Country.

The code which those words perpetuate
embraces the highest moral laws and will
stand the test of any ethics or philosophies
ever promulgated for the uplift of
mankind. Its requirements are for the
things that are right, and its restraints are
from the things that are wrong. The
soldier, above all other men, is required
to practice the greatest act of religious
training - sacrifice. In battle and in the
face of danger and death, he discloses
those divine attributes which his Maker
gave when he created man in his own
image. No physical courage and no brute
instinct can take the place of the Divine
help which alone can sustain him.
However horrible the incidents of war
may be, the soldier who is called upon to
offer and to give his life for his country, is
the noblest development of, mankind.

You now face a new world - a world of
change. The thrust into outer space of the
satellite, spheres and missiles marked the
beginning of another epoch in the long
story of mankind - the chapter of the space
age. In the five or more billions of years
the scientists tell us it has taken to form
the earth, in the three or more billion
years of development of the human race,
there has never been a greater, a more
abrupt or staggering evolution. We deal
now not with things of this world alone,
but with the illimitable distances and as
yet unfathomed mysteries of the universe.
We are reaching out for a new and
boundless frontier. We speak in strange
terms: of harnessing the cosmic energy; of
making winds and tides work for us; of
creating unheard synthetic materials to
supplement or even replace our old
standard basics; of purifying sea water for
our drink; of mining ocean floors for new
fields of wealth and food; of disease
preventatives to expand life into the
hundred of years; of controlling the
weather for a more equitable distribution
of heat and cold, of rain and shine; of
space ships to the moon; of the primary
target in war, no longer limited to the
armed forces of an enemy, but instead to
include his civil populations; of ultimate
conflict between a united human race and
the sinister forces of some other planetary
galaxy; of such dreams and fantasies as to
make life the most exciting of all time.

And through all this welter of change and
development, your mission remains fixed,
determined, inviolable - it is to win our
wars. Everything else in your professional
career is but corollary to this vital
dedication. All other public purposes, all
other public projects, all other public
needs, great or small, will find others for
their accomplishment; but you are the ones
who are trained to fight: yours is the
profession of arms - the will to win, the
sure knowledge that in war there is no
substitute for victory; that if you lose, the
nation will be destroyed; that the very
obsession of your public service must be
Duty - Honor - Country. Others will
debate the controversial issues, national
and international, which divide men's
minds; but serene, calm, aloof, you stand
as the nation's warguardian, as its
lifeguard from the raging tides of
international conflict, as its gladiator in
the arena of battle. For a century and a
half you have defended, guarded, and
protected its hallowed traditions of
liberty and freedom, of right and justice.
Let civilian voices argue the merits or
demerits of our processes of government;
whether our strength is being sapped by
deficit financing, indulged in too long, by
federal paternalism grown too mighty, by
power groups grown too arrogant, by
politics grown too corrupt, by crime
grown too rampant, by morals grown too
low, by taxes grown too high, by
extremists grown too violent; whether our
personal liberties are as thorough and
complete as they should be. These great
national problems are not for your
professional participation or military
solution. Your guidepost stands out like a
ten-fold beacon in the night - Duty -
Honor - Country.

You are the leaven which binds together
the entire fabric of our national system of
def ense. From your ranks come-the great
captains who hold the nation's destiny in
their hands the moment the war tocsin
sounds. The Long Gray Line has never
failed us. Were you to do so, a million
ghosts in olive drab, in brown khaki, in
blue and gray, would rise from their white
crosses thundering those magic words -
Duty - Honor - Country.

This does not mean that you are war
mongers. On the contrary, the soldier,
above all other people, prays for peace,
for he must suffer and bear the deepest
wounds and scars of war. But always in
our ears ring the ominous words of Plato
that wisest of all philosophers, "Only the
dead have seen the end of war."

The shadows are lengthening for me. The
twilight is here. My days of old have
vanished tone and tint; they have gone
glimmering through the dreams of things
that were. Their memory is one of
wondrous beauty, watered by tears, and
coaxed and caressed by the smiles of
yesterday. I listen vainly for the witching
melody of faint bugles blowing reveille,of
far drums beating the long roll. In my
dreams I hear again the crash of guns, the
rattle of musketry, the strange, mournful
mutter of the battlefield.

But in the evening of my memory, always
I come back to West Point. Always there
echoes and re-echoes Duty - Honor -
Country.

Today marks my final roll call with you,
but I want you to know that when I cross
the river my last conscious thoughts will
be-of The Corps, and The Corps, and The
Corps.

I bid you farewell.

ThaiGold
Silver Conclusion
Attn: Peter Asher (05/03/00; 10:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29845)================================================================================
....
...
..
5-03-2000
To: Peter Asher

[You wrote]
Maybe its because I'm old enough to remember the tide of World war II being
turned by "Rosie The Riveter." The two factors that won that war were the
ability for the American soldier to think for himself and take the initiative
on the battle field when cut of from command, and, the resources and industrial
might of "Spacious Skies, and Amber Waves of Grain." Maybe that veiwpoint makes
me also one of your "Crack Pots".
[UnQuote]

Indeed, Peter. Nowadays Heroic Veterens, Warriors, and Patriots such as yourself
would perhaps be labeled as such. But certainly not by me, one of the vanishing
breed of Flag Wavers. And I've even heard of Harry Truman being labeld such, for
having the audacity to actually *win* a war.

[And you wrote]
I don't find the word Silver any where in it. Is there a more comprehensive
formal version of this order.
[Unquote]

If you could perhaps repost that same PostOffice Gold confiscation notice, or
remind me of the original post date, I'm sure it contained a reference to Silver
in the fine print of one of the lesser paragraphs. Look very carefully. That's
what triggered my curiosity. It may have been a similar post, of the same FDR
order, by someone else, just previous to yours. But as I recall, BOTH contained
the reference to Silver. Your post was in response/clarification of his post.

Regardless, the Silver non-confiscation issue has gathered some interesting
inputs now, by other posters, including:
Econoclast (05/03/00; 14:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29867)
[quote]
One reason that there wasn't silver confiscation might have been simple
logistics. A few pounds of gold brought into a bank or otherwise confiscated can
be quite valuable. Silver on the other hand, is not nearly as precious so maybe
the gov't simply didn't want to have to cart around truckloads full of silver
when they could simply confiscate a small safe full of gold.
[unquote]

Which confirms the similar explanation as to that which you put forth.

And further confirming your answers, the post by:
TownCrier (05/03/00; 18:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29888)

[quote]
Rarity notwithstanding, the
very existance of these silver coins until 1964 is your modern proof that
silver was not desired by the government...it was simply not needed to
settle international trade, and was not the fundamental source of difficulty
when bank runs plagued the nation in the late 1920's and early 1930's.
[unquote]

So I guess there were several pretty logical reasons why Silver was not
confiscated. And my question has been answered. Thanks to you all.

Also, in the interim of all this, I myself (finally) realized another possible
reason: To have done-so, would have left our nation without any coinage for
day-to-day trade. Except for Penny's and Nickel's. Wooden or otherwise.

Now then, we must confront the issue of "Would Silver be a good alternative
to pre-1933 coins, nowadays.?." Apparently not, as none of our coinage is Silver
based anymore. So, in a pinch, the US Government *might* lean toward Silver
confiscation afterall, since it would mostly be in the form of "hoards" in
the hands and hiding-places of Gold & Silver Bugs. And they'd target them/us
just for spite. As usual.

Cordially,

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
=============================================================================
ThaiGold
Duty - Honor - Country
Attn: Peter Asher (5/4/2000; 0:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 29909)==============================================================
....
...
..
Peter Asher:

You just posted the Farewell Speech to West Point by ....
Kindly refresh my old and failing memory.

Who gave that immortal speech at West Point.?.

Thanks. It was a poignant speech, and as I read it, thought to
myself, golly, how times have changed.

Duty - Honor - Country

[partial quote]
He has written his own
history and written it in red on his enemy's
breast. But when I think of his patience
under adversity, of his courage under fire,
and of his modesty in victory, I am filled
with an emotion of admiration I cannot put
into words.
[unquote]

Duty - Honor - Country

Our Military Servicemen and Women still believe and uphold
such Nobleness. Would that our President could even try
to reach that Pinnacle.

ThaiGold
=================================================================
THC
Serious Question for ORO
Oro, I hope that all is well with you. Thank you for your continued sharing of ideas.

You recently wrote:

>Pt and Pd are being driven by a physical short squeeze of >the type that closed down TOCOM Pd trading. Paper is being >sold into the ground while physical can't be had. >Familliar scenario? Did not FOA/ANOTHER indicate that was >how gold will go?

In the previous palladium squeeze, insufficient metal was available to support the delivery requirements, resulting in a squeeze that pushed prices so high that Tocom shut down trading. In this case, paper went up along metal.

And currently, a simular situation is brewing, with paper/physical palladium and platinum prices very strong, and in deep backwardation.

To my knowledge, the Pt/Pd markets have yet to prove that "paper can be sold into the ground while physical can't be had"......the holders of long contracts can hold until expiration, forcing the shorts to deliver or pay exhorbitant prices to escape.

Do you know of any example of a commodity market where the paper contract enables the long holder to demand delivery, and yet the paper was driven into the ground while there was insufficient physical commodity to satisfy demand?

I find this scenario somewhat implausible, as long as the contract holders have the right to demand delivery.

Pls let me know your understanding of this issue, and if there are any historical examples of such a scenario actually occuring.

Thanks,

THC
ORO
Canamami - reply to your 29897
canamami 29897

A couple of issues to take you to task on.

1. Europe is far more closed an economy than the US. In nominal terms, the EU currencies were routinely overvalued relative to the dollar according to Purchasing Power Parity, but for short periods. This was a direct result of EU member's position as US creditors since the late 50s. The low Euro is a true test of the mettle of Europe's "self contained" economy. It will show up any weakness in internal supply of internationally traded goods and services.
The US has used its "extravagant privelege" of issuing the reserve currency to trap the emerging economies of the world in a massive debt trap. As a result, PPP parity with these nations would turn their exports to America into far more expensive items than they are today. On a volume basis, the US has been importing 56% of its goods and a large, and growing, portion of its services, perhaps 25%. In the event of free trade actually occuring (i.e. no more dollar reserve system), the US would be at parity with all its suppliers and the volume of trade rather than the need to repay dollars would dictate import prices. The result would be one of two for each import - either we stop importing, and live like the rest of the world does, or we pay the full price of the imports. In any case, we would no longer be able to "outsource" the bulk of our labor needs to newly industrialized countries.

2, 4,. The political bent of Europe, particularly of Germany, though difficult will not stand in the way of the Euro and the EU. It might help reduce some of Brussel's power, which is allways a good idea. However, the impetus for change that brought these countries together in the first place is still there. The drivers were true economic necessity and the interest of the large European banks. The motion to snare England worked and it has resulted in aquiesence of their financial community. The results include the Frankfurt/London stock exchange deal (which was Germany's prize for approving the Vodaphone merger), the convergence of short term interest rates, and the coming convergence of long term rates for Gilts and Bunds.

3. 4. Italy is definitely a problem, but Euro "credibility" only matters for short term trades; up to 2 years or so. Weak members should not make much of a difference to the viability of the currency of the whole block as long as Italian style socialism does not turn into pan-European socialism. The socialist Brussels establishment was chopped down once, it will be done again. Socialist officials are remarkably easy to "convince", and when they are caught we see the kind of mass resignation of Eurocrats that we saw in the end of 98. I believe that Europe's current socialist leadership was elected by the people and supported by business for the respective purposes of protecting worker's interests during the transition, and to placate the public's fear of having to compete on their own merits.

5. These fundumentals of trade surplusses and savings will, ultimately, prevail. Particularly if nations within Europe start competing for business the way states compete for business within the US.

6. 8. The US is quickly falling into the exact same debt trap it has fallen into before. Just as our bankers have done to many others before. When liquidity dries up it tends to cause hedges to backfire, creating more damage than the original position could have caused. Once the damage from busted hedges induces liquidation of the original positions, the system unwinds in a vicious circle. That is how LTCM and many others got killed. The technicals do look like a capitulation is in. However, it often takes a second capitulation to undo the trend. Often it is the spike down through a long support line of a long decline trend that marks the initial bottom. I often put limit buy orders in such "chart positions" below the market.

7. The US up Euro down of the 1998-1999 period is gone. The US markets are being pumped up by low interest rates in Europe and Japan. The drift of the JGB from just over 0.5% to near 2% and back to 1.5% is joined with the Bund yield rising from under 4% to over 4.5% to reduce relative interest rate spreads. The resultant reduction in relative spreads had the effect of raising US rates. The fact that 6.5% rates are needed to keep the dollar going, indicates an inflationary discount of 5% relative to the Yen and 2% vs. Europe. (This is because capital demands raise long term interest rates globally, while inflation expectations dictate the unique interest rate in each currency zone/country.) This indicates an inflation expectation of about 4.5%-5%. I believe the US is importing deflation from abroad and has a 6.5% (Q1 2000) to 8% (Q3-4 2000) price inflation which requires a 3% rise in the dollar in Q1 2000 in order to compensate for local inflation with foreign deflation, and this figure should be compounded with a further 3% rise in the dollar for Q3.

9. The BIS reports are pretty clear, and I use their numbers for much of my statistical analysis of "Big Float"
http://www.bis.org/publ/r_hy9911.htm
http://www.bis.org/publ/r_db9911.htm
http://www.bis.org/publ/r_fx98.htm

The following is a collection of charts showing 1. market share of various currencies (charts 1-3), 2. currency creation (fresh bank lending) less currency demand to repay outstanding debt (rest of charts.
http://members.xoom.com/Nebucadnezer/CurrencySupplyDemandBalances.htm

SteveH
You folks are busy...
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q2/2000_05/1000504.054152.mozeleeee.htmThis post from Mozel deserves to be read. This is probably a hall-of-famer, but he didn't really post it here, then did he. Enjoy!
ORO
THC - Expectations
The backwardation in Pd in the US markets was very severe before the TOCOM break. The backwardation was reversed and gone much closer to normal during a few weeks.

Today, backwardation in Pt and somewhat in Pd are exactly in that situation, the pricing of the paper is discounted at an annual rate of 75% per year in the close month. It comes to a 5% discount "for waiting" and prolonging exposure to a possible default.
SteveH
You folks are busy...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/schultz050400.htmlOn the subject of hall-of-famers, here is another winner. This one is truly inspiring, written in a prose that praises English essay writing.

snippet --

"The presidents who got/kept the US in Vietnam were Kennedy (a toddler when WWI ended but heavily influenced by his lost generation father), LBJ (a teenager in 1918), & Nixon (old enough to have been influenced by WWI). But why didn't we have a major bubble in the 60's or 70's? Answer: We won WWI. We lost Vietnam. It's no coincidence that after Germany lost WWI, it tried to create the perfect society, which resulted in Weimar inflation. After Vietnam, the US promised Utopia & experienced inflation for a decade. Losing a war does greater cultural damage than physical, as Hitler's election in the 1930's proves. Just as Hitler gained popularity by promising to "make it up to the Germans" for the WWI defeat with a huge welfare state, LBJ promised Utopia with his "guns&butter" policy."

HI - HAT
SEASONS
The wheel rolls on, round the bend an old familiar vista. Europe, the hub of all colonialist spokes, now takes again the road to Empire. The seasons change, but as ever,
All Roads Lead To Rome.
ss of nep
All Roads Lead To Rome

Indeed.

The Empire never really died, it just changed its name and seat of power.

THC
Oro - Pt Backwardation
Thank you for the quick response.

I see the backwardation situation somewhat differently. My view is that spot demand is strong (requests for physical delivery), therefore spot prices pull the near month contract prices up vs. the far out contracts. For reference, you may note that the backwardation percentages are very similar for Tocom gasoline and Pt. I don't think there is much risk of gasoline going the way of palladium, so this should not be interpreted purely as a sign of "default risk."

My understanding of FOA's statement that "paper will be sold into the ground" is that the value of paper contracts will go down over time, while the price of physical goes up. This is clearly NOT the case for Tocom Pt.

If one purchases a far out Pt contract, the value goes UP as you hold it due to the backwardation, even if the value of spot Pt is flat. In this sense, at this point in time and given that a default does not occur, paper Pt is clearly NOT being driven into the ground (value goes up over time).

Once again, please confirm your thoughts.

Cheers,

THC
ss of nep
See: SteveH (5/4/2000; 4:16:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29914)
From Mozel's � The Secret Stash

"It is pretty clear that the British are doing the bidding of the U.S. on demand now. The BOE auction is evidence. But, the fawning British role during the Kosovo atrocity is even better evidence. Congress has designs on the whole British Commonwealth, I think"

I think he has it backward here.

The Roman Empire moved to Britan, and there it remains to this day,
It is the US that does the bidding of the British.



Peter Asher
ThaiGold
The Silver reference was in the so far undocumented reference material below.

Peter Asher (04/25/00; 01:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29296)
Hill Billy Mitchell (04/24/00; 22:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 29290)

I have a copy of the Post Office "Poster" notifing the public of the Executive order.

Your authors "Quote"

>>>>I as
President, do declare that a national mergency exists; that the continued private hoarding of
gold
by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to the peace, equal justice, and
wellbeing of
the United States, and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the
interests of our people." Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that
such
gold holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion or other possessions of gold be
tendered within fourteen days to agents of the Government of the United States for
compensation
at the official price, ($20.67 per ounce) in the legal tender of the Government. ALL SAFE
DEPOSIT BOXES IN BANKS OR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE BEEN SEALED
PENDING ACTION IN THE DUE COURSE OF THE LAW. All sales or purchases or
movements of such gold and ***silver*** within the borders of the United States and its
territories, and
all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby
prohibited.<<<<

Holtzman
Of Empires
Holtzman here,

I seem to have chosen a good day to wrap this one up, as the main topic already under discussion is Empire.

--------------
Nothing stays the same
--------------

A few days ago, someone posted something here which got me thinking: "Does anyone seriously think that the awesome powers of the US Government would ever allow the US$ dollar to decline from the world's stage?"

My grandfather used to say almost exactly the same thing about the awesome powers of the British Empire and the strength of the British Pound. He was right. For a time. But as the years passed, he grew less and less right. Sometimes the status quo takes centuries to change. Sometimes it changes overnight. But change it will.

I do see a future where the U.S. dollar will remain in existence. And I do see a future where the euro won't be as hard a currency as the Deutschmark.

However, I don't see the euro becoming as soft as the lira. Nor do I see the U.S. dollar remaining the planet's sole reserve currency. There will be inflation, of course, in both the euro and the dollar, but probably not on level with 1920s Germany or 1990s Russia. I think what's most likely to happen will be an evening out of the powers.

Europe (sooner or later including the UK, Switzerland, and hopefully someday Russia) will gradually begin presenting itself as a single nation. Mind you, it may be a century before anything approaching a U.S. Constitution is signed. In the meantime, though, in terms of economic mass, Europe is already becoming a singular noun. Europe will be on par with the U.S., but it will have no motivation to wish to overshadow the U.S. After all, we have enough troubles of our own. Why should we wish to take on yours as well? This new attitude should, I hope, make our new century a bit calmer than the previous.

--------------
Sea versus Land
--------------

During the past 500 years, the notion of Empire implied ocean-spanning conquests, from Spain's and Portugal's occupation of South America through Britain's occupation of India to the U.S.'s occupation of large sections of Europe and East Asia. This repeating pattern was documented during the second half of the 1800s by Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914), who concluded from the historical evidence available to him that sea power was the surest source of Empire. From the Roman Empire (basically the shores of the Mediterranean plus non-Scotland Britain) all the way up to the British Empire (an island which held sway over parts of every continent), it seemed clear to Mahan that naval power was the key to world domination.

It's important to realise that Mahan was an American, watching as it were from the sidelines while his part of the English speaking world was left out of the great British Empire. Indeed, during Mahan's college days, the Confederate States were petitioning the Empire to let them back in. Mahan viewed the remnant U.S.'s blockade of Confederate ports as the make-or-break stratagem which allowed the North to reassemble the Union. Mahan's theories published in later years only reinforced the argument among American politicians that the U.S. had to become a great naval power in its own right. His theories were also embraced by the British who saw them as independent confirmation that they'd gone about world domination in the proper manner.

A few decades later, an opposing notion of power was theorised by Sir Halford Mackinder (1861-1947). Mackinder viewed the world as a set of concentric rings centred round Eastern Europe (Germany to the Urals). It was his belief that whomsoever ruled that core (which he called the Heartland) would be in the best possible position from which to rule the World Island (Eurasia/Africa) and thence the rest of the world. He also believed that anyone who found himself in such a position would naturally desire to pursue that course of action. But Attila, Genghis Khan, and even the original Muslim Jihad had never sought to reach beyond the great oceans. It's even in some doubt that Hitler and Stalin would have wanted to directly rule the Americas or Australia. Render them harmless, yes, but rule them? Doubtful.

As with Mahan, it's equally important to realise that Mackinder was a Briton, watching as it were from the sidelines while alarming powers stirred to life on the Continent close by. From his point of view, he saw the Americas as largely irrelevant to the coming struggle between the sea-based British Empire and the land-based Heartland. Though regarded as an alarming scenario by the British (and later the Americans), his theories were (not surprisingly) later embraced by the Russians who saw them as independent confirmation that they could successfully wall themselves in behind concentric rings of defence.

This is why you saw, as recently as the 1980s, the layered onion configuration of the Soviet Bloc. Moscow was at centre surrounded by Russia, surrounded by Russian-speaking Belarus/Ukraine, surrounded by the mostly Slavic-speaking Eastern Bloc, with now-subdued Berlin held impotent at its perimeter. Finally, the occasional remote banana republic was held under sway as a way of distracting attention from the centre. A more impenetrable fortress could hardly be imagined. Any rational person viewing that contrivance from the outside would see it as defensive only, and yet NATO spent untold wealth preparing for an attack which, frankly, was never going to originate from the Heartland lest NATO were fool enough to provoke it.

Interestingly, the U.S. took both Mahan and Mackinder to heart. The U.S. became the greatest sea power in the world and, during the Cold War, it built a concentric Heartland within North America every bit as onion-layered as the one in Eurasia. NORAD under Cheyenne Mountain was at centre, surrounded by missile silos scattered across the rest of the country, surrounded by the friendly nation of Canada with its listening posts and, on the other side of things, us in Western Europe.

Is it any wonder that Russia feels nervous right now, especially about anything relating to nuclear weapons treaties? The U.S. onion is still mostly intact, while the Russian one has fallen away layer by layer. Now they've even got terrorists within their own borders blowing up blocks of flats in downtown Moscow. We, the rest of Europe, have been used to this sort of nonsense for ages, whether it be IRA bombs in the City, or Basque separatist bombs in Madrid, or rather pathetic neo-Nazi riots in Berlin. But this is all new and horrid to the Russians.

It is absolutely imperative that we, the rest of Europe, beckon Russia into our embrace with all due haste. Russia's psyche needs insulation. Russians need to know that they are bordered by friends. As bizarre as it no doubt still seems in some quarters, NATO minus the U.S. and Canada may be exactly the sort of outer shell Russia needs to feel safe. And a Russia that feels safe is a Russia which can deliver more raw materials and business opportunities than did the American West of a hundred years ago.

What both Mahan and Mackinder neglected in their theories was that a would-be Empire must be motivated to reach out, either by a need for scarce resources or by a need to strike first at a disturbingly powerful neighbour. The goal of Europe's leaders over the next century must be to so arrange themselves that they feel neither deprived nor threatened.

That last point is why the euro does not need to be either strong or weak. It should simply make no practical difference from the point of view of a European citizen how many outland currency units equate to one euro. Until the U.S. started obsessing on Japanese consumer electronics and Arab oil, Americans could live out their lives without once needing to know how many yen a dollar would buy. Why? You used to be self-sufficient.

The purpose of the euro is indeed to supplant the dollar, BUT ONLY WITHIN EUROPE. If others outside choose to use the euro as a reserve currency, they're welcome to. But, precisely as Dr. Greenspan manages the dollar solely with respect to the U.S.'s needs, the ECB will manage the euro solely with respect to Europe's needs. The euro is not intended to take over the world, any more than are the renmimbi or rupee.

China and India are classic examples of Empires which have historically been content with their stati quo. They are each powerful enough not to feel compelled to conquer the world in self defence (minor border irritations notwithstanding). Indeed, both have been victims of conquest several times throughout history without having been inspired to agression themselves. Likewise, though neither would be considered rich on a per capita basis as compared to the UK or the U.S., neither China nor India feel the need to conquer in pursuit of scarce resources.

Europe must do its utmost to pursue a similar pattern of Empire. To do anything else is to invite a repeat of the 1900s. Or worse yet, the 400s.

--------------
Multi-Heartland World
--------------

I expect the Empires of the 21st Century will be continental in nature: Europe, English North America, India, China. That's not to say islands will be left out. No doubt Britain will figure prominently in Europe. Japan may someday likewise become a satellite of China. Then again, it may not.

Other regions will unify (at least loosely) in order to take second-place positions at table: Australia/Oceania, Latin America, the Muslim world from Pakistan to the Maghreb, and perhaps even Sub-Saharan Africa.

In this environment, I expect the U.S. will find itself playing the role of the post-1918 British. The U.S. will still be important on the world stage. It's just that, gradually over time, it will cease to be the one voice that makes the planet shake. Which, frankly, will make the world safer for everyone, including Americans. Still, at half a dozen times more population than the UK, and at probably half a hundred times the land mass, it's doubtful the U.S. will dwindle quite so far as did we.

--------------
Balkan America
--------------

But then again, the UK is simply the core of what used to be the British Empire, and even that core is devolving as we speak. Remember I said some time back that historical change tended to result from huge and opposing pressures. Change occurs when one pressure gives way, and there's often no way to anticipate which pressure will be the one to falter. For example, whilst it's quite possible the U.S. and Canada will carry on as if they were one unified nation for the next century, it wouldn't surprise me too awfully much if, a few decades hence, North America north of the Rio Grande were to comprise a dozen or so sovereign nations rather than two. After all, where's the rallying call nowadays? The Red Menace is gone.

The most likely fracture point as I see it is Quebec. Should Quebec someday secede, the act will cut Canada into at least three nations, not two. Sooner or later, the English Atlantic part of Canada will find more in common with New England than with Western Canada. That cross-border commonality is already present today, and is felt in both directions. Residents of Seattle consider New Jerseyites much more outlandish than residents of Vancouver. Residents of Maine find residents of New Brunswick far more "normal" than Montanans or Albertans. These commonalties may in time prove more compelling than the call to remain subservient to a faraway and increasingly arrogant District of Columbia.

The most perilous part of this devolution will come when the U.S. federal government realises that most of its nuclear stockpile is located in those states which are most eager to secede: the Pacific Northwest. It's hardly surprising that the incumbent government is practically at war with the various well ordered (and not so well ordered) militia springing up from Idaho to Texas to Illinois. Moscow was just as alarmed when it dawned on them that Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan were leaving the fold as well-stocked nuclear powers.

The south of the U.S. doesn't look much more stable, either. Mexico is making steady gains in its bid to reclaim the territory it lost to the U.S. a century ago. When the majority population in the southern states speaks Spanish, it'll be but a small step to New Mexico / Old Mexico reunification, then reunited Mexico will be a nuclear power. And, if one is to believe the news reports, the bottom tip of Florida has already become the independent nation of North Cuba. Finally, little Hawaii may someday awaken to find itself orphaned, an independent nation once again through no act or intent of its own. Halloo? Is anyone out there? Oh dear.

Naturally, what I've just written is quite clearly fantastic speculation. For the present. It's simply one of the hundred or so ways the opposing pressures of political humanity might lurch following a fracture. And do keep in mind that these words were written from the point of view of someone who's watching the final disposition of his own Empire. It's natural that such events would colour my expectations regarding other people's Empires. In all of this, the only thing we can be quite sure of is that the political maps in 2050 will only barely resemble those in 2000.

As I type this, I'm holding a Kaiser Wilhelm 20 Mark and a Romanov 5 Rouble in my hand. Both of those governments (Heartland governments, I just realised) have gone the way of the dinosaur, but their gold coins still carry value. True, in the time since these coins were minted, there's been at least a tripling of the above ground supply of gold, meaning that these coins are but a third of their original worth, all other things being equal. But retaining a third of their value is still a stunning accomplishment when contrasted against the banknotes with which they used to be exchanged one for one. Barely a decade after this 20 Mark was minted, the German printing presses were turning out Billion Mark bills for factory payrolls, engraving only one side of the paper in order to conserve ink.

Yours,
I.V. Holtzman
schippi
Select Gold Chart ( Up to 11:00 NAV )
Skip
Some thoughts...

I have some thoughts regarding two postings....

ThaiGold (05/03/00; 23:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29903)

Thank you for remaining in the forum. Having re-read your posting a second time, you seem like the kind of person who would be easy to have an indepth conversation with, only to discover later that time passed too quickly. One character quality that I personally respect is the ability to disagree with some issues while respecting the other person's opinion and his/her right to hold those opinions...along with a willingness to learn.

Do you have strong opinions? Yes...and so do I. But you have also indicated a willingness to learn, and possibly modify some of those opinions (as I have over the years). You seem to have this character quality, and far too few on this planet do. Indeed, from the content of your postings, I believe that you also have other valuable character qualities that people should emulate.

We can be each others' teachers and students, and that certainly is the case on this forum.

-------------------
TownCrier (05/03/00; 18:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29888)

Your posting to ThaiGold from yesterday really touched me for several reasons. You stated:

"There is no question in my own mind that the dynamic of the Forum is enhanced considerably by the input of new posters, especially those novices that are newly arrived with simple thoughts and questions about the world of gold economics."

Thank you for recognizing the value of new posters and occasional posters as well as seasoned ones.

You also said:

"I expect that some of these posters came to the table with their comprehension already in hand, while others attained that grasp while here."

...and:

"Whether they realize it or not, it is my opinion that many of the regular posters here know more about the intricacies of the gold sector than most financial analysts understand their own chosen field of employment. I expect that some of these posters came to the table with their comprehension already in hand, while others attained that grasp while here. I think it is fair to say that they (myself included) have all reached new levels of understanding by the information and opinions shared here. (I am equally certain that there are silent non-posters among us who have the same or greater "expert" status in the realm of gold market comprehension.)"

Almost all that I've learned about gold has come from the internet, with much of it coming from this forum...and a special thanks go to FOA/Trail Guide. Such respect for all of us contributes greatly to the value of this forum. May God bless your ongoing efforts to maintain this forum, and in all the good that you seek.

--Skip
SALMON
Franco-Nevada
Financial Highlights (audited)
For the year ended March 31st
(millions of Cdn dollars except
per share data) 2000 1999
-----------------------------------------------------Revenues $218.2 $135.6 +61%
Net earnings 143.8 102.2 +41%
Net after tax 97.6 68.5 +42%
Cash flow 138.3 105.9 +31%
Dividends 47.6 32.2 +48%
Debt nil nil
Earnings per share 0.62 0.45 +38%
Dividends per share 0.30 0.21 +43%
------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.globeinvestor.com/archive/cnw/20000504/c1475.html
Henri
I. V. Holtzman
There may be far more gold above the ground now than there was when Romanov minted the roubles; however, at some point the percentage growth of new gold brought above ground has slowed and the percentage growth of new people produced to share it has accellerated.

Hmm, I wonder if the crossover point was associated with any notable historic events? That is, when (or if) the growth in gold above ground (%/yr) became equal to the growth of the global population %/yr, was there another seachange political event?

Anyone have a database to plot this? If the population is now growing faster than above ground supplies, it is only political denial that gold is a depreciating asset. Common sense would indicate otherwise.
WilloTheWarthog
The REAL problem with Soros, Buffet, etc....
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature.htmlToday's feature at Blooomberg:

"Could the investment problems of Soros, Buffett and Robertson be that they are old men? It wouldn't be surprising if it were. Even in normal times there is probably a slight tendency for investors to hang around longer than they should."

Right. But the fat lady ain't sung yit.
Solomon Weaver
why silver was not confiscated in 1933
Very Simple

At that time all dimes quarters and halves were made of silver....how would people have made change???

Silver lined every pocket and there was no substitute!!!

Poor old Solomon
TownCrier
Comments for Sir THC on gold pricing...selling and "delivery" of futures
THC (5/4/2000; 2:43:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29912) raised the following question:
"Do you know of any example of a commodity market where the paper contract enables the long holder to demand delivery, and yet the paper was driven into the ground while there was insufficient physical commodity to satisfy demand?
I find this scenario somewhat implausible, as long as the contract holders have the right to demand delivery."

First, let me say that I have no familiarity with the rules that govern trade on the TOCOM exchange with regard to when contract holders are allowed to demand delivery and thereby causing the meltdown in the white metals seen there recently that you've described. Where it comes to gold on the COMEX, however, the key thing to recognize is that contracts can ONLY be called for delivery when their expiration month arrives. The "active" (price determining) month is always the next one out into the future, so THESE positions are ALWAYS SAFE from delivery obligations, and hence, they provide a perfect opportunity for any sizable entity who wants to sell them into the ground with impunity. The break will come in real gold prices when ever-lower prices as determined by the futures markets fails to be accompanied by adequate metal reaching the real market to satisfy the real demand for the metal. This break away will likely be seen first as higher premiums on top of the too-low spot price, followed by complete separation of the markets for spot and futures pricing.

The following excerpt of past discussion might be helpful. If it is too "out of context" to be meaningful, please look back at the original post in its entirety.

TownCrier (4/26/2000; 12:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 29379)
---BEGIN quote---------------
...those who theoretically sold gold [via futures contracts] and are now faced with delivery obligations [because they failed to settle their contract prior to the arrival of the window that allows delivery demand] [...] have two options. First option, they would turn to the spot market, bringing this demand pressure to apply upon the metal to be found there. Second option, they could "pass the buck" by entering the buy side of other April contracts and calling for delivery with which they will satisfy their own obligations. This "passing of the buck" could occur many times until a seller was found that had the required gold either in the COMEX system, in their private vault, or else by turning in the end to the spot market at some point prior to the delivery deadline of April 28. Of the 9,900 contracts held up for delivery, what are the chances that the buck was passed 9,900 times to satisfy one original delivery notice for a single 100 ounce contract??? My guess is that the buck is passed to a dergee, but that in this case it would not constitute the bulk of the delivery intentions. One reason for this conclusion is that around 7,000 contracts were immediately given notice for delivery on the first possible day...March 31st.

As you can imagine, this "passing of the buck" would first put demand pressure on the April contract itself, then maybe the spot market as necessary...depending on where the gold finally came from to fill the order (COMEX inventory, private inventory, or spot). Such demand pressure on April contracts or spot markets would be acceptible, because at this point April is off the radar screen. All focus is now upon the widely reported most active futures month which is June in this case. (And as you should know by now, the spot price is mathematically derived from the most active futures month's prices.) Another reason the "passing of the buck" probably does not artificially inflate the delivery intentions and hence the apparent quantity of gold scheduled to change owners (prior to the April 28 deadline) is that the institutional players without gold but with a desire toward suppressing the price would have settled their April contracts with cash (probably with a profit?) prior to being subjected to delivery obligations on First Notice Day (March 31). Upon the arrival of this important deadline, they would have moved into the future month of June, making it the active one, and would continue to short with delivery immunity while the April delivery drama would play out behind them.

It should be clear by know that all that is necessary to cap the U.S. price of gold for those desiring to do so is to continue to sell the active month futures contracts more aggressively than anyone else can be found to buy them. Not only are they thereby IMMUNE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING STUCK WITH DILIVERY OBLIGATIONS for gold that they couldn't provide, but their depression of this highly publicized futures price will generally diffuse any desire for the remaining April longs to seek delivery of a postion that is already apparently underwater as a cash loss. And for the same reason, the typical western investor mindset will not likely be putting much demand pressure on the spot market either. (Now you get a small feeling for why this latest delivery demand upon COMEX contracts seems outside the norm.)

I wonder how many of these institutions are selling the futures (and as a bonus, possibly making some money as the price falls by their own effort) while at the same timie buying what little physical metal remains available...
---END quote----------------------
TownCrier
ATTN: Sir Holtzman... and, Letting the cat out of the bag...
As coincidence and good fortune would have it, your remarks today were a perfect segue into a small project I have in the works. Specifically, these words:
"As I type this, I'm holding a Kaiser Wilhelm 20 Mark and a Romanov 5 Rouble in my hand. Both of those governments (Heartland governments, I just realised) have gone the way of the dinosaur, but their gold coins still carry value. True, in the time since these coins were minted, there's been at least a tripling of the above ground supply of gold, meaning that these coins are but a third of their original worth, all other things being equal. But retaining a third of their value is still a stunning accomplishment when contrasted against the banknotes with which they used to be exchanged one for one. Barely a decade after this 20 Mark was minted, the German printing presses were turning out Billion Mark bills for factory payrolls, engraving only one side of the paper in order to conserve ink."

Here is the story. Michael (Centennial Precious Metals) has very recently secured a beautiful cache of those same German 20 mark gold coins. He has asked me to put together a special web page to promote the availability of these special coins to our on-line clientele. If all goes according to plan, this page will allow for on-line ordering. (Welcome to the new millennium!)

I was wondering if I might gain your permission to quote your recent commentary within the context of my project. (Of course, now that I've let the cat out of the bag, all of these coins will surely be purchased by those who saw this little post and call MK before I can even get the page finished. Such is the risk I'm willing to take to make this first attempt at an on-line order page a "quality experience".)

Just let me know via the sitemaster e-mail which is a direct link to The Tower here whether I have your grace to use your quote. Thank you kindly.
Leigh
Willo the Warthog
The writer of the Bloomberg article REALLY needs to read the Book of Ecclesiastes! "Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us." The arrogant little fool probably wouldn't understand it, though!

Speaking of King Solomon (who wrote Ecclesiastes), our family was reading about his home the other day. Gorgeous -- a pre-fab cedar house covered inside and out with gold! It's in I Kings, chapter 6.

Willo, I'm very glad you're back. You disappeared around the time of the mudslides in Venezuela, and I was so worried that something had happened to you.

WilloTheWarthog
Leigh
n/aThanks for the welcome! No mudslides here, just a few quakes. As long as they stay under 7.0 we're ok, even then we'd still recover.

I posted that article for general amusement, not that it had any other value. During this time when up is down and right is wrong, it helps me keep my sanity to read a flagrantly idiotic article. No matter how many times you read "Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", it may seem that that history is far removed from the modern madness. I think this is one of the most difficult things to do today, "to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you".

The reasons I haven't hung around lately is that I've been too busy working and traveling, and also the markets have been somewhat boring. I smell a little blood in the markets here lately, though, so I thought I'd drop back by and see what's happening. Thanks again for the post, it's nice to have an absence noted. I'll try to keep my posts to links and some commentary on situations outside the US that are relevant to the general discussions.
Holtzman
Statistics
Holtzman here,

--------------
With pleasure, TownCrier
--------------

To TownCrier regarding (05/04/00; 12:20:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29932), if my words can be of use to you, you are welcome to use them. Though I don't specifically advocate the purchase of any particular coin from any particular dealer, I do feel it's wise for ordinary citizens to acquire gold coins as part of their overall holdings, and I do feel that a reputable dealer is one of the most valued friends an investor can find. Whilst I've never purchased from or sold to CPM myself, I've also never heard the first discouraging word from others who have done so.

--------------
Three Sovereigns Apiece
--------------

To Henri regarding (05/04/00; 10:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29927), actually the reverse is the case. Malthus a few centuries back observed that human population had been growing at a faster rate than had food production, and he projected that trend out a century or two into his future to a point where humanity would either starve or have no alternative but to resort to cannibalism. As it turns out, though, he hadn't taken into account the effects of technology. Petrol-burning harvesting machines hadn't been invented in his time. One can only imagine how astonished Malthus would feel were he to come back today and observe not only well-fed humans but an entire sector of the medical profession devoted to liposuction.

Technology delivered much the same shock to the gold mining industry. It took thousands of years of human endeavour to amass by 1970 the above ground sum of 2.2 billion ounces. It took a scant 30 further years to Double that figure. Which is to say, the supply of gold experienced 100% inflation over the past 3 decades, or an average of 2.4% inflation annually. How was that accomplished? Modern mining technologies, plus the 1970s' phenomenal increase in the POG which, though it quickly faded in the 1980s, nonetheless caused mine managers to invest in equipment as if prices would remain high forever. The resulting overproduction is now coming home to roost in a perceived oversupply. That's been the major source of downward pressure on both POG and mining stocks. Rumours that central banks might dump their holdings certainly added momentum to the downside.

Some time ago I ran some spreadsheet calculations on how much gold there had been per living human at various points in time (POG is in terms of 1998 US dollars, Oz/H means Troy Ounces per Human, Ounces means above-ground supply known to Europe, gathered from Reuters, WGC, etc.):

Year . . . Population . . . . . .POG . . . . . Ounces _ _ _ _ H/Oz _ _ _ _ Oz/H
1500 . . 0500000000 . . . 2400 . . . 0002421040 _ _ 206.5 _ _ _ 0.0048
1750 . . 0790000000 . . . 470
1800 . . 0980000000 . . . 260
1850 . . 1260000000 . . . 620 . . . 0321500000 _ _ _ 3.92 _ _ _ 0.26
1900 . . 1650000000 . . . 600
1910 . . 1750000000 . . . 500
1920 . . 1860000000 . . . 196
1930 . . 2070000000 . . . 290
1940 . . 2300000000 . . . 630
1950 . . 2520000000 . . . 290
1960 . . 3020000000 . . . 240
1970 . . 3700000000 . . . 240 . . . 2245039848 _ _ _ 1.65 _ _ _ 0.61
1980 . . 4450000000 . . . 1568 . . 2771929498 _ _ _ 1.61 _ _ _ 0.62
1990 . . 5300000000 . . . 780 . . . 3295525363 _ _ _ 1.61 _ _ _ 0.62
1994 . . 5630000000 . . . 400
1998 . . 5900000000 . . . 278 . . . 4018750000 _ _ _ 1.47 _ _ _ 0.68
1999 . . 6000000000 . . . 260 . . . 4417410000 _ _ _ 1.36 _ _ _ 0.74

The right-hand numbers tell the most interesting story. In 1970, were all the gold above ground to be evenly allocated across every human then living, the result would be .61 ounces to each human. By 1999, whilst there was a doubling of above ground supply, there was almost but not quite a doubling of human population. The per-human amount nowadays is .74 of an ounce, or about 3 sovereigns. So even though there's a lot more gold in existence today than in decades past, 3 sovereigns for each of us alive today makes gold still rather a scarce commodity (excuse me, currency ).

The good part is, the markets today think there's too much gold, for many reasons already thoroughly documented at this forum. The longer those markets continue to operate under that misconception, the better it is for us, for several reasons. One, it allows us to buy gold inexpensively in terms of our ability to earn wages. Two, it savagely curtails the mines' ability to bring new gold above ground (i.e., gold inflation is being suppressed to practically nil). Three, as the oversupply of two decades ago resulted in a prolonged price slump, the presently worsening undersupply will someday result in a prolonged price elevation. The reason we here occasionally become frustrated is because the paper markets have conditioned us to expect change on an hourly basis. But the physical gold market plays out its cycles over decades.

Yours,
I.V. Holtzman
SHIFTY
ponzi
Nasdaq 3720.74 + Dow 10413.12 = 14133.86 divide by 2 = 7066.93 PONZI
Down 26.79 ponzi points
Harley Davidson
ORO...
Geeze, it occurred to me this morning as I was driving to work that I was remiss by neglecting to include you in the secret society of "Web Masters" extraordinare of which
TC and Elwood are members. (smile) I forgot all about your web site, complete with graphics of beautiful gold coins. Well worth a visit!

TC, you said "If all goes according to plan, this page will allow for on-line ordering. (Welcome to the new millennium!)". Cudos on that decision to "use the technology"! I knew you could do it! (smile)
Harley Davidson
TC
That should be Kudos...with a "K".
Farfel
Warning: Never Attack the Gurus at Kitco or Else!
Some poster named HARDCASE who I cannot recall reading previously launched a bitter assault my way with respect to my memorialization/analysis of APH's recent very negative gold forecast (gold to dive below 250). I read a few of his posts today and am now ready to comment.

My rejoinders are listed below


Date: Thu May 04 2000 01:01
HARDCASE ( flierdude Re: farfel ) ID#404246:
Copyright � 2000 HARDCASE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

farfel is of the "new era" style of investing.

He believes that you should believe investment advice from some one who has lost 90 percent of his assets over the last 3 years ( himself, and self admited ) instead of some one who has made a good living at it for the same time period.

Farfel says:

It's true, I have had my ass handed to me on a gold platter
over the past few years. What a massacre! I am one of those guys who "swings toward the fences" when I believe in something. Unfortunately, for any goldbug or market bear, that Un-hedged type of strategy has been a disaster during these (mostly) unidirectional markets these past few years.

However I am happy to report I am back in the saddle and recovered around 30%-40% of my entire loss, thanks to the very negative bias of these markets these past two months.
I remain debt free with a quick mounting pile of dry powder.
It is encouraging especially since I have a free-spending young wife :>)

In contrast, I note Mr. HARDCASE declare today at Kitco that he has no dry powder any longer. So the tide and trend may be shifting, benefiting the contrarian fence swingers like myself at the expense of the technical hedgers like Mr. HARDCASE.

Finally, I no longer provide specific investment advice like Mr. APH since I developed a much more profound respect for the arbitrary nature of the stock market PLUS a deeper desire to avoid harming investors who might fall under my influence.


HARDCASE Says:

He believes that to be a good advisor you must be absolutely correct 100 percent of the time on your call ( himself excepted ) including when you only say that a possibility exist.

Farfel says:

No, I never said any such thing, that is a complete misrepresentation. I never expect infallibility from anyone.

HARDCASE says:

He believes that opinions on what should happen is more important than observations of what is happening.

Farfel says:

Well, as everybody knows, I do believe this stock market has been "managed" and manipulated owing primarily to the mutual fund phenomenon, the various currency and commodity carry trades, and heavy middle class participation in the markets. I do believe that the hallmarks of these markets have been cronyism and moral hazard and no other administration has intervened as often to preclude the proper market equilibriums from occurring. As evidence, I've offered everything from the Bank of England Lowest bidder gold sale to the Long Term Capital Management bailout.

So yes, I do believe that I write often on "what should happen in the markets" and those writings are as valid as observations about what is happening.

However, Mr. APH does not simply write about what is happening, he predicts the future very often posting contradictory forecasts within several days of each other and often counting on the poor memory of his readers to forgive erroneous predictions. All this whilst a hallelujah chorus trumpets his wizardry to the heavens.


HARDCASE says:

As far as him not being very nice. There has never been any evidence that he is a nice person, and the only things he is any good at are twisting words and arson ( on chair seats )

Farfel says:

Oh, yes, I can be a very bad boy, no doubt.

However, just how "nice" is somebody like Mr. APH appearing upon a gold forum then, with all his accumulated adoration and influence, predicting gold's immediate plunge below 250 at a time when many long beleagured and devastated gold investors are holding significant investments that are only a stone's throw from bankruptcy. How nice is such a man who can so impassively make declarations that will ruin the bank accounts of those whose "homes" he visits at Kitco?

That's not too nice of him, is it? Maybe he would prefer to post such dire gold predictions in confidence amongst his friends or at one of the bullion bank chat forums where they would be so much more appreciated.

No, I am NOT for censorship, rather I am simply somebody who feels that at this point in time, negative mass psychology toward gold CAN be turned around, on the mere spin of a dime. I believe that the value of any investment is a function of that mass perception. In other words, before a person will even examine an investment's fundamentals, he must be WILLING to examine it in the first place.

So it becomes important to memorialize the notable errors of those technicians/analysts who predict gold to plunge to
new incredible depths so that next time they make such dire predictions, then their disciples will recognize they are NOT at all omniscient, that they best do their own research and their own thinking and that their gurus negative opinions are just that: opinions.

So here's to reality checks, that's what they call them at Kitco (I've been subjected to many myself), and they certainly do have value.

Thanks

F*
ORO
Holtzman figures
How sure are you of the figures?

My Fed source figures for 1995 have 3.575 billion ounces.

Mining production for 1998 sat at 80 million ounces and scrap recovery at 26 million

Data for 1999 show an 82 million ounce mine supply and a 16-17 million ounce scrap supply.

Since scrap does not change the aboveground values, the numbers don't work out right for your 1998 and 1999 figures.

While gold production rates grew by 5% annually in the 90s, the production rate has nearly stalled at a 3% growth rate in 1999.

Using your 1990 number and the 65 million ounce average annual production value for 1990-1995, we have
3.2955 + 0.065 * 5 = 3.621 billion ounces at end 1995

This is only 50 million ounces above my 1995 figure.

Using the known values for 1996-1999 production, the 1998 value would be
3.621 + 0.073 + 0.076 +0.080 = 3.850 billion for 1998
3.850 + 0.083 = 3.933 for 1999.

Using my 1995 figure would give 50 million less -
3.800 billion ounces in 1998
3.883 billion ounces in 1999

The rise of gold supply in your figures from your 4018 million 1998 estimate to 4417 million in 1999 means that a 400 million supply came in all of one year, since production capacity is only 82 million ounces for 1999 and is expected to be under 85 million for 2000.

Total mine resources estimated for 1995 were 2283 million ounces. Due to reduced exploration in the years since, there has been only minor growth in this number, on the order of 5% for the whole period. (My partial tally of major gold finds sits at about 120 million for the period 1995-1999).

Using the recalculated figures for 1998-9 we have
1.55 H/Oz and 0.64 Oz/H in 1998
1.54 H/Oz and 0.65 Oz/H in 1999

Using your inflation adjusted gold prices in relationship to the number of humans per ounce in dividing the POG by the H/Oz number (checking for correlation between inflation adjusted price and scarcity factor), we get:

1850 158
1970 145
1980 974
1990 484
1998 180
1999 170

JA
Greenspan's Comments
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000504/bs/economy_fed_7.htmlI would be interested in hearing from members of this forum as to how one should interpret Mr. Greenspan's comments below: Is he saying there will be no more LTCM bailouts? Is he hinting that the PPT has run out of money? Or is he saying there is a change in approach, while in the past they have adopted the "too big to fail approach" that is the case no longer? Or is it simply a line of BS to keep the sheeple guessing?


Greenspan also cautioned market participants, and in particular private investors, not to rely on the Fed to bail them out in the event of a bank failure.
``There are many that hold the misperception that some American financial institutions are too big to fail,'' he said.
While the Fed and other supervisors would try to ensure an ''orderly liquidation'' of a failed institutions, Greenspan warned that ``shareholders would not be protected, and I would envision appropriate discounts or 'haircuts' for other than federally-insured liabilities''


TownCrier
German Finance Minister Hans Eichel speaks out on the weakness of the euro
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=AORHUsBZrR2VybWFuIn a speech on budget and tax policy delivered at the University of Cologne, Germany, FinMin Eichel remarked:
"The debate about the euro, is hysterical, not rational. In Europe, far too many people are commenting on the single currency, sometimes without understanding what they are talking about. I have one thing to say: All fundamental economic data in Europe is better today than 16 months ago when the single currency was introduced. We must go on the offensive to make this clear."

As we suggested days ago, don't look for forex intervention from the ECB, unless it is their only "politically correct" avenue to rid themselves delicately of unwanted foreign currency assets. To this Crier's eyes, when you have gold reserves being regularly marked to market in a "free gold" climate, there is simply no reason to maintain foreign currency assets beyond what is convenient for the purpose of short-term international settlements with those specific nations.

And if the ECB wanted another way to send a "politically correct" message about the nature of assets, the very next news release on the status of the Swiss gold operation would reveal that the ENTIRE 120 tonne quota allowed for this year had already been succesfully allocated through the BIS during this first week of May. If you can conceive of how this all works, there truly seems little reason to piecemeal it...except for maintaining the illusion.
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/
Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 4, 2000

Rates for Wednesday, May 3, 2000

Federal funds 6.05

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.91
10-year 6.40
20-year 6.49
30-year 6.11

right-side up spread FF vs long bond = +.06%

This is a first in some 41 days.

On March 22, 2000 this rate spread became negative and stayed that way with only 3 minor exceptions (03-24-00 +.02%) (03-29-00 +.01%) (04-27-00 +0.00%)

I have a hunch that the Fed is not finished but only being very careful in hopes of not stepping off the cliff. The long-bond buyers have pushed up the long rates the last few days. The Fed does not react as quickly as the market. We will see if the Fed continues to march towards recession as thing unfold over the next 10 days.

Sir R Powell

We watch this closely. I have a hunch this is the real thing; however this is a game of "chicken" and the last time it the Fed was so dispossed Sir Alahad took for the ditch.

hbm
TownCrier
Thank you, Sir Skip, for the affirmation of my earlier words to ThaiGold
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000504/bs/commodities_61.htmlAs I said, "There is no question in my own mind that the dynamic of the Forum is enhanced considerably by the input of new posters, especially those novices that are newly arrived with simple thoughts and questions about the world of gold economics." And also, "Whether they realize it or not, it is my opinion that many of the regular posters here know more about the intricacies of the gold sector than most financial analysts understand their own chosen field of employment."

The link I've provided is an example of what I mean. It is an Associated Press article with the headline: Gold Rises on Inflation Fears.

In its commentary, they quote a fixture in the gold markets, one Bill O'Neill, senior futures strategist for Merrill Lynch. According to the AP, Mr. O'Neill ----"disputed others' view that inflation worries are involved in recent gains, saying the metal's allure as a safe haven isn't what it used to be. "In my view, gold is not serving as a monetary asset at all.""------

How ridiculous is that comment? Either he has been living under a rock and missing the news, or else it is pure Merrill Lynch propaganda with a hidden agenda. Surely everyone at the forum knows better, and could cite two very obvious points to clarify his "view". The first bullet-point of the Washington Agreement, and the watershed event whereby the IMF bowed down from the unbearable weight of their past fiction in order to start marking some of their gold assets to market prices.
TownCrier
HEADLINE: Canada's Barrick sees strong gold prices ahead
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000504/nr.htmlReuters reports today that Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. is predicting year 2000 gold prices improve by "about 20 percent over 1999". The report states that the general manager (Igor Gonzales) of Barrick's Peruvian operation indicated that, "driven by increased Asian demand and renewed interest by investors in gold as an alternative to inflation-threatened currencies, prices are set to shine."
YGM
Worthy of Repost....."Goldbugs Revenge"
Thanks for Great Day of Reading Here!Markets : Options Buzz


Revenge of the Gold Bugs
By Dan Colarusso
Associate Editor
5/4/00 12:54 PM ET



With a 50 basis-point interest rate hike likely in the offing and concern
about inflation lingering, the gold bugs and their single-digit stock prices
may no longer be the market's most trod-upon sector.

Action in the options market today may be pointing toward some spark of
interest in gold as an asset, with unusually heavy volume cropping up in the
Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver index contract -- known as the
XAU -- this morning.

Volatility Index
Today % Change
34.97 +1.33
Source: ILX

"Gold has gone from being a mandatory 10% of an investor's portfolio to
being like it doesn't exist," says Jay Shartsis, the senior options
strategist at R.F. Lafferty in New York. "But the market cap of the sector
has gotten so low that any shift back can bring an explosion."

The XAU was up almost 4% from the get-go this morning, as traders bid up key
components such as Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE - news - boards), Homestake
Mining (HM:NYSE - news - boards) and Placer Dome (PDG:NYSE - news - boards).


Put/Call Ratio
Today (Noon) Previous Close
0.45 0.61
Source: ILX

The spurt was somewhat unexpected, especially in the wake of a report
yesterday from Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE - news - boards) analyst Peter
Ward, downgrading four major gold names.

Options action came early and often on the XAU. Before 11 a.m. EDT, more
than 3,000 of the in-the-money June 50 calls and 1,000 May 55 calls had
traded. It appeared to be action inspired by buyers and while the price of
the June 50 calls rose only 3/4 ($75) to 12 3/4 ($1,275), the market for the
contract had risen 13 1/2 to 13 5/8.

By midday, the XAU was up 2.32 to 62.12.

Open interest on both call options was slight and was far outstripped by
today's action. If the volume seen today was indeed initiated by buyers, it
would indicate some significant interest in a bullish play on gold. If the
call action came from sellers, those players would essentially be
speculating on a weak finish to the month for contract.

Newmont calls were also busy. With the stock up 15/16 to 27 3/16 before
midday, the June 27 1/2 calls traded more than 500 contracts and spiked 1/4
($25) to 2 1/2 ($250).

Shartsis says the rebound in Newmont has been impressive. After being
battered for the better part of the past year, Newmont is up more than 20%
since March 2.

"There's no real news propelling it either, and that's impressive," he says.
"It's been a long night for gold stocks. Gold is the antithesis of the paper
money explosion ... but has the world changed so much that gold isn't
considered money anymore?"

Calls were also busier than normal in Homestake, which was up 5/16 to 6 7/8,
and Placer Dome, up 1/4 to 9 3/8.
TheStranger
JA and TownCrier
Hi, JA. I hope things are going well for you up there in the land of famous potatoes. Greenspan undoubtedly meant to remind the banking industry of the importance of prudent risk management. If some institution "too big to fail" gets into trouble, the Fed may be forced to bail out the customers, but it will confiscate ownership from the shareholders and terminate management as conditions. This is pretty much how the savings and loan fiasco was resolved ten years ago, and it only makes sense.

***********************************************************

There were rumors on Wall Street today of coming corporate consolidation among gold miners. Some analysts say they have been waiting for consolidations to begin before they will raise ratings on the group.

***********************************************************

TownCrier...Thanks for posting #29945. I just hope Farfel saw it.
oldgold
Farfel
Let's drop the APH obsession. He has made plenty of good calls, but some real bad ones as well.

The fact is that other expert technicians completely disagree with APH on the gold outlook.

The greatly respected Elliot Waver Peter Desario projected a gold bottom between $264 and $274 when bullion was around $280. And that forecast turned out to be right on the mark.

Mr. Desario projected that gold would rally $50-$60 from the low before the trend reversed. Precisely the opposite of APH.

South Africa's respected Clive Roffey also is completely at odds with APH.


So let us watch and see who will be proved correct.

BTW, all the nonsense here about gold shares being bad investments compared with physical have turned out to be a crock of sheesh. The shares are far outperforming bullion on this rally as they have done in the past.
YGM
Barrick Sees 20% Increase in Gold/$
Barrick Comments in 6 Months........Say ...Jan /01Well, Jeez we never thought it would go "That Far"..........
All we can tell the shareholders is that Barrick has no control over the madness machinations of the Markets......



"You Sorry Assed Crooks" is the retailiation of the "Class Action" lawsuit........(smile)
Harley Davidson
JA...
We all know the reality of the budget surplus and how it is actually just an accounting slight of hand that replaces Social Security funds with IOUs and presto, chango, we have a budget surplus! Then we see Mr. Greenspan on Cspan, sitting before both the House of Representatives (Banking Committee) and the Senate being asked for his opinion on how the surplus should be spent. After the obligatory caution that "we really don't know how much surplus will actually materialize" blah blah blah, he goes on to say, in this order, "buy down the debt, tax cuts, and some other, inane suggestion to keep the Democrats happy (spending programs I think...I forget). I just look around the room for validation that it is not me who has lost touch with reality. So it appears he is participating in the charade. If you tell a lie long enough, people start believing it, and, based on this kind of behavior, I don't see how one can reliably interpret what the man says.
THC
Towncrier Re Futures Markets
Good day and thank you for your comments.

However, I must state that I have a very different understanding of the futures markets (primarily based on the Tocom, which I trade/follow on a daily basis).

1. The "Price Determining" Month
In reality, the price of each futures contract month is determined by the buyers and sellers of that contract (such as the April 2000 Pt contract). I ALWAYS look at the prices for all of the contract months whenever I check my positions or consider buying/selling, and I would assume that this is common sense. One can only understand if the market is strong or weak (backwardation vs. contango) by looking at all of the contracts.

In reality, there is no "price determining" contract.

2. "Immune from Delivery Obligations"
The only way a short can be "immune from delivery obligations" is to BUY back the contract. The futures markets require that anyone long at expiry take delivery, and anyone short deliver the commodity.

If the shorts or the longs want out, they must take the opposite trade.

While it would be possible for someone to sell a huge number of far out contracts, thus pushing down the price of these contracts, by the same token, the longs could hold these contracts for delivery, thereby pushing up the value of these contracts as they go towards expiry.

In a market where those wanting delivery exceeds those who want to deliver, there is price backwardation. Where the reverse is true, we have contango.

As we have seen in Tocom palladium and more recently April 2000 platinum, the price of a futures contract GOES UP when insufficient metal is available to support delivery......in other words.......we have a squeeze.

Please show me an example of a commodities market where:
1. Commodity supplies on the open market could not meet demand.
2. The futures contract specified delivery at expiry.
3. Warehouse supply levels were insufficient to respond to significant delivery requests.

When the above conditions exist, there should at least be backwardation, and at some point possibly a squeeze. How could prices be "sold into the ground"?

Thanks,

THC
USAGOLD
All. . .
Please scroll through MRCI before the numbers go away, and see what an inflation driven market looks like.

Stranger, is this the first time this has happened in recent months or have I missed it. Haven't seen this sort of alignment in awhile. My first clue was the metals moving up pretty much in tandem, but when you look at them all, it looks like a good old-fashioned inflation driven financial and commodity markets. Wheat, oil, gold, silver, platinum , unleaded gas, coffee CRB ----all up solidly. Paper in all its forms - - - down!
ThaiGold
Locked Stock and Barrels
Attn: Farfel, TheStranger, and GunBugs===========================================================================
....
...
..
5-04-2000
To: ALL

[Locked Stock]
Recently, Farfel posted some interesting thoughts about "Locked" IPO Stock.
ie: Massive quantities os shares held in trust, for/by IPO insiders, that
cannot be sold upon the open market during a mandated, lengthy waiting period.
And that, much of that stock is soon to come onto the market, and further that
he (Farfel) predicted (wisely) that it could have a depressing effect upon
NASDAQ and Tech stocks. During this Month of May. TheStranger echo'd similar
comments as well to re-stress the possible upcoming effect.

My thoughts on this are somewhat contrary. I respectfully submit for everyone's
consideration, that it may have just the *opposite* effect upon the markets...
And here's why I think that:

A holder of such Locked Stock, could (I'd think) go to his favorite broker,
and deposit or pledge (in writing) that stock. Let's say for example, that
he holds 100,000 shares of WhizKid.Com (his own IPO company).

Then, during the previously soaring NASDAQ periods, he could have entered
immediate "short" sales thru that broker, of an equivilent quantity of
(broker-borrowed) stock of the same flavor. But those are UnLocked shares
going into the market. And if sold in a moderate way, subdivided into -say-
5 trades of 20,000 shares each, would have not jolted the market very much.

Later, upon the mandated UnLock-Day, he'd simply pick up his phone, call
his broker, and request that his (5ea 20,000) share short trades be offset
or closed-out using the previously deposited 100,000 share locked bundle.

Doing it that way, the market might even go UP on UnLock Day, as intelligent
traders would have known of this effect; already "discounted" it into the
markets; and would be "buying on the news". So the market would tend to rise
or at worse simply ignore the event. That's just my own opinion. But today's
lackluster NASDAQ performance seems to confirm it on this first day of UnLock.

[Barrels]
Off-topic, but alot of GunBugs were posting over the weekend. I always enjoy
Steve H's 2nd Amendment writings. We should all be cognizant of that very
special right of our Constitution. The Right to Keep and Bear Arms. Unique
in most all of the world. The Free World. The Enslaved World.
On-Topic, in fact, because we may need those Arms to protect our physical
holdings, of whatever sort. Gold, Land, Trees, or Families. Maybe all the Above.
And to protect our Precious Freedoms to boot. It is an essential right.

A "Well Regulated Militia" means simply that. A well-armed populace, standing
ever ready to defend it's country. At the time it was written, the word
"regulated" as applied to Militias, or any other entity, meant "equipped".
No-way did it mean "restricted" nor "governed". So, courts bent on interpreting
it otherwise, should get themselves a circa 1776 dictionary, first.

One or two other posters made interesting posts about doing some test-shots
with his 50-calibre cannon. And how it's muzzle blast alone, would do the job
even if the projectile missed. Right on.!.

Myself, have always prefered a smaller version, my trusty Ruger .44 Magnum
Super BlackHawk, with 10-inch barrel. Bought in 1961, it never ceases to amaze
me. During the Y2K non-event, I added to my arsenal, a .44 Magnum lever action
carbine. How convenient. Both use the same ammo. I'm still looking to find
a Gattling Gun, which I could have rebored to my favorite flavor. ...

The .44 Magnum is legendary: Said to kill on the one end, and wound on the
other. (Massive recoil). Not suited for the average well-armed USA grandmother.
But for everyone else, seems generally adequate. Except for Police Officers...
They are for the most part, banned from carrying them. Because it's considered
"politically incorrect" to shoot a BadGuy with such overwhelming awesome power.

With a 10" barrel, it's rather difficult to "conceal" my Super BlackHawk. So I
gave up trying. Besides, it seemed to me the local state's incredible red tape
to obtain a "concealed weapon permit" was way too cumbersome. And probably even
unconstitutional at best. So I only bothered to get one the first time. It soon expired, and more bureaucratic fees, obstacles, and delays made it pointless to
attempt to renew it. So I didn't. Never have. Never will. I'm a pragmatist.

Instead I just used (what seemed to me) a glaring loophole in that "law":
It used the word "concealed". So, if I didn't *conceal* it, then (I reasoned)
there is no need for their ridiculous permit. Ever since that time, I simply
carry it in plain sight. Like Tom Mix. Or Roy Rogers. Or Clint Eastwood.

Some folks may feel intimidated by that. But I certainly am never intimidated.
By anyone. The Good. The Bad. Nor the Ugly.

You can Quote me, if I'm Wrong.

Cordially

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
===============================================================================
Cavan Man
Harley Davidson
I was meaning to comment that your quote a couple of days ago from Plato; "An unexamined life is not worth living.", is actually attributed (correctly) to Socrates. Socrates; Aristotle; Plato; this is the chronological order of the great and ancient philosophers.

Thanks for your kind comment.

ThaiGold
Wisdom of Solomon
Attn: Solomon Weaver (05/04/00; 11:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29929)=====================================================================
....
...
..
Hi Solomon Weaver

In your #29929, you said:
[quote]

why silver was not confiscated in 1933
Very Simple
At that time all dimes quarters and halves were made of silver....how would people have made change???
Silver lined every pocket and there was no substitute!!!

[unquote]

It appears we are on the same WaveLength, because, in my:
ThaiGold (5/4/2000; 1:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29910)
"Silver Conclusion"

The same incredibly simple thing dawned on me too:
[I said]

Also, in the interim of all this, I myself (finally) realized another possible
reason: To have done-so, would have left our nation without any coinage for
day-to-day trade. Except for Penny's and Nickel's. Wooden or otherwise.

[UnQuote]

But I will defer to you, Sir Solomon, for having said it far more elegantly
in in far fewer words.!.

Cordially

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
==============================================================================
SHIFTY
PONZI CORRECTION ! !
Nasdaq 3,720.24 + Dow 10,412.49 = 14,132.73 divide by 2 = 7066.36 Ponzi
Down 27.36 ponzi points!


Cavan Man
Peter Asher 29909
I am happy to report I recently picked up Manchester's bio of DM for a mere pittance. I am sitting here with some moisture in my eyes at this moment. Yes, even on the 30th anniversary of Kent State, I say beyond a doubt, I love this country!

Would you be kind enough to post the link? I wish to print and send to friends.

Thanks....CM
Cavan Man
Holtzman
Many thanks kind sir for the wisdom.
TownCrier
Continue your education on banking operations: On reserve requirements and the quest for interest
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BoardDocs/testimony/2000/20000503.htmTestimony of Governor Laurence H. Meyer on "Payment of interest on reserves and Fed surplus" before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives -- May 3, 2000

In this testimony, Fed Governor Meyer gives an excellent overview of the "ins and outs" of banking reserve requirements, and you will see how close the banking system plays to the edge, all in the name of getting some "performance" out of their otherwise stale currency funds held in simple reserve.
---------------------
From the testimony:
"Depository institutions currently expend considerable resources to minimize their required reserve balances by developing and operating various programs, such as business and retail sweep programs, in order to minimize the balances recorded in their transaction accounts. From society's point of view, these expenditures produce no net benefits, and paying interest on required reserve balances would reduce the incentives for depository institutions to engage in these practices.
+
Depository institutions have always attempted to reduce to a minimum the non-interest-bearing balances held at Federal Reserve Banks to meet reserve requirements. For more than two decades, some commercial banks have done so in part by sweeping the reservable transaction deposits of businesses into nonreservable instruments. These business sweeps not only have avoided reserve requirements, but also have allowed businesses to earn interest on instruments that are effectively equivalent to demand deposits. In recent years, developments in information systems have allowed depository institutions to begin sweeping consumer transaction deposits into nonreservable accounts. These retail sweep programs use computerized systems to transfer consumer transaction deposits, which are subject to reserve requirements, into personal savings accounts, which are not. Largely because of such programs, required reserve balances have dropped from about $28 billion in late 1993 to around $6 billion today, and the spread of such programs has not yet fully run its course.
[...]
In light of the resources used by depository institutions to try to circumvent reserve requirements, some might question the reason for having such requirements. Indeed, reserve requirements have been eliminated in some other industrialized countries. Let me review the historical and current purposes served by reserve requirements.
+
Although the word "reserves" might imply an emergency store of liquidity, required reserves cannot actually be used for this purpose, since they represent a small and fixed fraction of a bank's transaction deposits. I should also note that reserve requirements are quite different from capital requirements. Capital is a buffer against losses, and capital requirements are an important aspect of the prudential supervision and regulation of banks. Reserve requirements, by contrast, have no role in banking supervision and prudential regulation.
+
Reserve requirements are a monetary policy tool. In the past, they have been employed to assist in controlling the growth of the money stock. In the early 1980s, for example, the Federal Reserve used a reserve quantity procedure to control the growth of the monetary aggregate M1. Indeed, the current structure of reserve requirements, with relatively high required reserve ratios on transaction deposits, which are included in M1, and zero or relatively low ratios on nontransaction deposits, which are not, was originally designed to aid the control of M1. For the most part, however, the Federal Reserve has looked to the price of reserves--the federal funds rate--rather than the quantity of reserves, as its key focus in implementing monetary policy.
+
While reserve requirements no longer serve the purpose of monetary control, required reserves continue to play a valuable role in the implementation of monetary policy in the United States. They do so because reserve requirements induce a predictable demand for balances at Reserve Banks on a two-week average basis. As you know, depository institutions trade reserve balances among themselves every day at the interest rate called the federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee sets a target for the federal funds rate that the Open Market Desk attempts to maintain. The predictability of the overall demand for reserves is important in helping the Desk determine the amount of reserves to supply through open market operations in order to achieve a given federal funds rate target. Because required reserve balances must be maintained only on an average basis over a two-week period, depositories have some scope to adjust the daily balances they hold for this purpose and this process helps stabilize the federal funds rate. For instance, if the funds rate were higher than usual on a particular day, some depository institutions could choose to hold lower reserve balances that day, and their reduced demand would help to damp the upward pressure on the funds rate. Later in the two-week period, when the funds rate might be lower, those institutions could choose to hold more reserves and make up the shortfall in their average holdings of reserve balances. [...] A number of measures taken by the Federal Reserve also have helped to foster stability in the funds market, including improvements in the timeliness of account information provided to depository institutions, more frequent open market operations which are increasingly geared to daily payment needs rather than two-week-average requirements..."

***And much, much more on banking and the proposed legislative changes to banking rules...

Some other notable tidbits...

"In any case, it is important that the Federal Reserve have a full monetary toolkit, given the inventiveness of financial market participants and the need for the Federal Reserve to be prepared for potential developments that may not be immediately visible."

"The payment of interest on required reserve balances would reduce the revenues received by the Treasury from the Federal Reserve. The extent of the revenue loss, however, has fallen considerably on balance over the past ten to twenty years because of reductions in the level of such balances as banks have increasingly implemented reserve avoidance techniques..."

"The Federal Reserve System derives the bulk of its revenues from interest earnings on Treasury securities that it has obtained through open market operations. The System returns a very high proportion of its earnings every year to the Treasury. In 1999, it turned over $25 billion, or about 97 percent of its earnings."

"The surplus account has helped to provide extra backing for the issue of Federal Reserve notes. The Federal Reserve is required by law to hold certain specified assets, including Treasury securities, as collateral against the issuance of currency. The Federal Reserve buys Treasury securities, its main asset, in the open market as the counterpart to the surplus on its books. [...***Now, welcome to the world of "funny money"***..] However, legislation signed into law last year expanded the assets of the Federal Reserve that could be used to back the issuance of currency to include all discount window loans. As a result, the importance of the surplus in providing a margin of excess currency collateral has greatly diminished.
+
Traditionally, the Federal Reserve and virtually all other central banks have maintained an appreciable level of capital. For the Federal Reserve, some of that capital has been contributed by member commercial banks and some from earnings retained in the surplus account. Maintaining a surplus account may help support the perception of the central bank as a stable and independent institution by ensuring that its assets remain comfortably in excess of its liabilities. However, the need for capital in this case is limited by the modest variability of the Federal Reserve's profits, the safety of its primary asset, Treasury securities, and the substantial regular flow of earnings from its portfolio of securities.
+
Indeed, in the abstract, a central bank with the nation's currency franchise does not need to hold capital. In the private sector, a firm's capital helps to protect creditors from credit losses. Creditors of central banks, however, are at no risk of a loss because the central bank can always create additional currency to meet any obligation denominated in that currency."

"...transfers of Federal Reserve surplus to the Treasury provide no true budgetary savings. ...financing an ... outlay through a surplus transfer [from the Fed] is exactly equivalent to borrowing from the public. For reasons illustrated by this example, the Federal Reserve has consistently stated that transfers of Federal Reserve surplus do not provide true budgetary revenues and indeed that mandating such transfers undermines the integrity of the federal budgetary process. The fact that budgetary rules count transfers of Federal Reserve surplus as revenues for the purpose of calculating the budget deficit is an anomaly of federal budget accounting."
AREM
Thaigold's Unconcealed Gun
I loved your posting about your unconcealed gun. I have a .357 Magnum Colt with a long barrel. It is scary just to look at. Your gung ho attitude was a welcome relief to some of the nervous sentiment being expressed about gold confiscation. The idea that we can legally buy gold coins minted by the US government and then be concerned that at some later date they will declare them illegal and tell us to turn them in, is abhorrent and absolutely unacceptable. As I have said before, if the government wants my gold coins, they are more likely to get lead, and it will be hollow point lead at that. I pity the politician who has the bad judgment of supporting gold confiscation.

AREM
Chris Powell
Midas commentary for May 4
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/449?"Midas" commentary for May 4 by GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Chris Powell
Barrick chief sees 20 percent rise in gold
Peter Asher
Caven Man
http://google.netscape.com/netscape?query=macarthur+speech+may+12+1962The link I posted from was http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/macarthur/filmmore/reference/primary/macspeech06.html
But the search page link above is more comprehensive, and has some alternative text formats and info.

This also will intrigue you:
Quotations from the Founding Fathers and Other Notable Personalities
http://www.io.com/~velte/quotes.htm
Samples:

"What the subcommittee on the Constitution uncovered was clear - and long-lost proof that the
Second Amendment to our Constitution was intended as an individual right of the American
citizen to keep and carry arms in a peaceful manner, for the protection of himself, his family, and
his freedom."

-Senator Orrin Hatch, Chairman, Subcommittee on the Constitution, Preface, "The Right to Keep
and Bear Arms"

"The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized
community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or
moral, is not a sufficient warrant."

-John Stuart Mill, "On Liberty" 1859
ThaiGold
Pen Mighty'er than the Sword
Attn: AREM (05/04/00; 20:59:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29960....
...
..
Thanks AREM.

Your final conclusion is a Classic.!.
[Quote]
As I
have said before, if the government wants my gold coins, they are more likely to get lead, and it will be hollow point
lead at that. I pity the politician who has the bad judgment of supporting gold confiscation.
[UnQuote]

They say: "The Pen is Mighty'er Than the Sword".

Well, that was in the OldDays... When they used smeary Ink.

Now, it's the "Pencil is Mighty'er than the Pen".

...Because it can be erased.
So, nowadays, I always write with a lead pencil.

But if that fails, well, there's still the 44.
Hey.!. Is that UnEraseable lead, or what.?.


ThaiGold
===================================================
aunuggets
FARFEL....
Have you seen S.J."Kaplan's Corner" Question #2 for the evening (05-04-00) ?
Peter Asher
Kinda' like the war on gold. Same people too.
http://news.excite.com/news/r/000504/18/congress-delay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - House Republican Whip Tom DeLay
said Thursday a small elite of opinion-makers was waging a
"cultural coup d'etat" on the country's fundamental values and
called on Americans to wage a faith-based counter-attack.

They are selling what one historian calls the morality of the
cool," the Texan said. "The morality of the cool teaches that
flag-burning and nude dancing are protected speech, but prayer
before a football game is not."
TownCrier
Sir THC, other than semantic details, I think we agree
If you take another look at my post, you should find that I provided the necessary conditions to justify my comments as written. Here is a simple example of our agreement, although the essence of your post would imply that you feel otherwise.

You said:
---BEGIN quote------------
2. "Immune from Delivery Obligations"
The only way a short can be "immune from delivery obligations" is to BUY back the contract. The futures markets require that anyone long at expiry take delivery, and anyone short deliver the commodity.

If the shorts or the longs want out, they must take the opposite trade.
---END quote---------------

Whereas I said:
---BEGIN quote-------------
Where it comes to gold on the COMEX, however, the key thing to recognize is that contracts can ONLY be called for delivery when their expiration month arrives. The "active" (price determining) month is always the next one out into the future, so THESE positions are ALWAYS SAFE from delivery obligations, and hence, they provide a perfect opportunity for any sizable entity who wants to sell them into the ground with impunity.
[...]
Another reason the "passing of the buck" probably does not artificially inflate the delivery intentions and hence the apparent quantity of gold scheduled to change owners (prior to the April 28 deadline) is that ********* *********THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART****** ********* the institutional players without gold but with a desire toward suppressing the price would have settled their April contracts with cash (probably with a profit?) prior to being subjected to delivery obligations on First Notice Day (March 31). ******* ******* ********** ********* ************ **************
Upon the arrival of this important deadline, they would have moved into the future month of June, making it the active one, and would continue to short with delivery immunity while the April delivery drama would play out behind them.
---END quote--------------------
As you can see, this settlement I refer to is done exactly as you say...with cash to buy the offsetting position.

The point I was making was that these short positions can always be leap-frogged into the nearest active futures month in order to remain outside of the delivery window.

I did not intend for anyone to draw the conclusion that prices for any given contract month are determined by anything other than the supply and demand forces upon those same contracts as you address in your #1 item. What was mean by the "price determining" month was that the most active futures contract is used for the mathematical calculation of spot prices...appropriately adjusted for the "future cost of funds" involved, both metal and paper.

In my original post I explained how such a condition of contract price backwardation could occur as the delivery month goes toward expiration with delivery notices being served and possibly "passed along to the next guy". Similarly, you said, "the longs could hold these contracts for delivery, thereby pushing up the value of these contracts as they go towards expiry." However, as I indicated, the low remaining open interest in this expiring contract puts it off the radar screen as all eyes turn to the more active month for direction. Arbitrage opportunities would be biased toward moving its price toward the more active future month which could itself be sold into oblivion as needed. At what point in time will the contract longs simply give up on this no win avenue?

Looking at this years remaining months and the current open interest on these COMEX gold futures, we see the following:
Contract _ Open Interest
May _ _ _ 0
Jun _ _ _ 89,734
Aug _ _ _ 16,713
Oct _ _ _ 4,029
Dec _ _ _ 19,991

There is no question that the newswires focus on the price as determined by the June contract action. And if you follow this open interest, you will see the June postion decline significantly just prior to the arrival of the June window for delivery notices, and at that time August will take over the show. These are all cash deals with offsetting postions. If institutions truly wanted to keep a cap on gold, they need do little more than maintain this leap-frog strategy, and sell the next month out as agressively as needed to accomplish their objective. And what might you expect the longs to do under falling prices and perhaps margin calls as well? They would probably cash out of their position by selling it long before expiry, wouldn't you? As things panned out in April, less than 10,000 contracts (an outstanding number, nevertheless...all things considered) were held up for delivery, while open interest in that month had earlier been ballpark 80,000.

Those desiring real gold would do well to simply pick up what they need on the cash market. Consider for a moment this quote from FWN:
---BEGIN-------
"Gold climbed predominantly on short-covering and some inflation fears
and while it's not amazing, demand is good for physicals," said Leonard
Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management.
---END---------
Wasn't Lenny just a short while ago the chief bullion trader at LFG Bullion Services?? But nevermind that. My point is that what Leonard describes as "good demand for physicals" clearly has nothing to do with COMEX longs holding for delivery. Open interest for May is ZERO as you can plainly see...there is no position in which delivery could be demanded.

(But to say again, I don't know the TOCOM rules. Perhaps on TOCOM delivery can be demanded thoughout the contract life.)

TownCrier's bottom line:
the point of all of this is simply that looking to the prices of contracts on COMEX futures markets will not likely give the adequate warning that the physical market is about to break away from demand greatly exceeding supply at these prices. It is a reasonable assumption that for every ounce of gold you have in your possession, there is someone else who provided the gold via deposit in an interest bearing account. Picture, if you will, a run on the bullion banks.
*snap* it's all over.
Enough said.
TownCrier
Gold Stolen From Albania Treasury
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000501/od/gold_1.htmlDoes it surprise anybody that it was gold, of all things, stolen from the Albania Treasury? Three officers in charge of guarding the treasury were arrested in connection with the disappearance of $2.8 million in gold coins.
ThaiGold
Albania Gold Heist
Attn: TownCrier (05/04/00; 23:28:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29968)....
...
..
TownCrier:

That's astounding.!. $2.8 million in Gold coins.
Vanished into the night. Poof.!.
When will you have it available for us.?.


ThaiGold
===========================================
View Yesterday's Discussion.

THC
Towncrier -- Back to Basics
Thank you for the considerate and detailed response. I appreciate your taking the time to discuss this issue with me.

I guess you could say that we do agree on some points, and at the same time on other points we see things differently. And that is fine!

But, I would like to maintain my focus, so I will return to my original concern.

I believe that FOA has spoken from time to time of "paper being sold into the ground" while "physical gold sells at much higher prices away from the futures markets." I would content that as long as futures markets are connected to physical markets through the physical delivery rules, this would seem to be highly implausible. The reason is that this would be highly "arbitragable". One could buy a cheap futures contract, take delivery, and sell into the expensive physical market. This would bring the prices of the 2 markets together (and this is what keeps futures markets tied to physical markets).

Recently, Oro cited Pd/Pt in Japan as examples of "paper being sold into the ground," and I also found this difficult to understand. As far as I can tell, the lack of physical metal has resulted in an extremely strong platinum futures market, and a squeeze in Pd. Neither of these scenarios seems to qualify as "paper being sold into the ground."

Thanks again,

THC
RossL
Sir THC

Since you are knowledgable about the TOCOM, could you please clarify what happened with the TOCOM April Palladium contract? According to reports that I read, the following events occured.

First, there is a supply deficit and prices increase. Then a short squeeze occured as delivery time neared, and prices rise again. Then TOCOM allowed shorters to default on delivery obligations. The paper contract prices declined as positions were liquidated, meanwhile no palladium was delivered.

In your opinion, is this what happened?

Why would anyone continue trading a futures contract that didn't require delivery to keep traders "honest"?

According to the scenario reported above, yes, "paper is being sold into the ground".
THC
Towncrier
I would like to emphasize that I greatly enjoy the posts by yourself, Trail Guide, and Oro, as well as everyone else here at USAGOLD.

I respect the forum and everyone here, but I think it is important for participants to express "doubts" when they arise, and to hopefully reach deeper understanding through discussion and debate.

Naturally, it is quite possible that my doubts are purely due to my own misunderstandings..........

Wishing all a Golden Day,

THC
THC
RossL -- Tocom Pd
Good morning!

I wrote the following (end of this post) after the Pd squeeze, and it describes my overview of the events.

In more basic terms:

1. The longs held their contracts, and the shorts tried to buy to cancel their shorts.
2. This pushed the prices up to record HIGHS.
3. The high prices resulted in massive financial damage to the shorts (bancruptcy, suicide, etc.), who were trapped in their positions in a series of limit up days.
4. Then the exchange basically shut down the contract.
5. It still trades (perhaps with no more physical delivery). However, the volume is less than 1% of what it used to be. For all extensive purposes, the Tocom Pd has ceased to exist.

In summary:
*The price of paper went UP.
*Then paper stopped trading (although positions can be closed for cash).

I hope this helps,

THC

**************

Anyone for a commodity market SHORT SQUEEZE?

The recent default of the Tocom palladium market proved to all who were watching that:

1. It is completely possible to execute a squeeze of a commodity market when warehouse stocks are not sufficient to allow shorts to deliver.
2. A successful squeeze can be highly profitable.

****How was it done?
While I have no proof whatsoever, I think it is likely that Engelhard (or whoever was behind their buying � Tiger Fund?) played a major role in the squeeze.

Last year I began charting the relationship between Engelhard's plat/palladium positions and the prices of these commodities, but unfortunately my computer ate the file.

In any case, I observed that Engelhard slowly built up a huge long palladium position by slowly buying in most of the contract months. If I remember correctly, their position reached about 5000 contracts, ALL long.

After they established their position, I imagine that they just let it role through to expiry. The shorts tried to bid the price up to escape, but the longs held on���with no escape from the short position and no metal to deliver, TOCOM decided to shut down the market.

It is interesting to note that a foreign institution had the long position��it could be inferred that TOCOM intervened to protect the local (Japanese) shorts.

****How much did they profit?

While one can only guess, I observed that they owned 5000 long contract when the price was around 1050 yen/gram. If we assume they closed most of it at 2000 yen/gram or higher (price frozen by Tocom at 2300 � 2400 yen):

5000 x 1500g x 1000 yen (profit margin) = 7.5B yen = $68,000,000

Not bad at all!!!

Now, the next topic I would like to consider is, will this happen again? Based on the warehouse stocks in Japan/US, the plat and palladium markets are extremely vulnerable to another squeeze.

TOCOM Warehouse Stocks:
Plat = 500g x 818 = 409,000g = 12,781 oz.
Palladium = 3000g x 247 = 741,000g = 23,156 oz

Nymex Warehouse Stocks:
Plat = 50 oz x 540 = 27,000 oz
Palladium = 100 x 283 = 28,300 oz

This is obviously a very small amount of metal. For a large organization, it would be easy to take out a big futures position, and let it roll to expiry.

The only risk would be "sudden" deliveries from Russia. But what if Russia is involved with the squeeze directly or indirectly? Then these markets are theirs for the taking.

Shall we organize a squeeze? 500 investors willing to each take delivery of one contract of platinum could take out ALL of the Nymex platinum stockpile.

Fun, fun, fun���.

The above is all based on my memory of recent events and rough calculations. If there are any inaccuracies, please feel free to point them out (but no flaming, please!).

Thanks,

THC

RossL
Sir THC

It seems that we are all in agreement except for semantics. Reports have it that physical palladium is being traded at higher prices than the paper price. From my observation point, I can see no reason why the price of a paper palladium contract can not be sold down to its intrinsic value, which is about $0.02 !!
THC
RossL
Hi again!

"Reports have it that physical palladium is being traded at higher prices than the paper price."

As I noted before, there are many different paper prices (many different contracts), and since plat/palladium tend to be in deep backwardation, you must be careful in making such judgements.

Since one can require delivery of a Nymex Pd contract, I would guess that the price of futures contract on the day of expiry is VERY close to that of spot prices.

"From my observation point, I can see no reason why the price of a paper palladium contract can not be sold down to its intrinsic value, which is about $0.02 !!"

As long as a contract can be used to require delivery, this sounds implausible. Can you show a historical precedent for this?
RossL
Sir THC

The history of the world is filled with contracts and promises that have been defaulted on. I do not see why futures contracts would be an exception. The Wall Street establishment does not want to convey that impression, of course.

I believe the root of the discussion we are having is one of faith. Those of us who say that paper futures prices will be sold into the ground have lost faith in that method of price discovery. Apparently, you have not lost that faith!

The rumor that I was referring to was that Japanese buyers were buying physical palladium at prices higher than the TOCOM contract after it went into default.
THC
RossL - Faith & Suprising Events
Yes, you are right......I have faith that even in the event the shorts cannot deliver metal, I will be paid in fiat currency.

One thing I really think is worth considering regarding this:

"Reports have it that physical palladium is being traded at higher prices than the paper price."

Take a look at the following:

http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/prices?cl,2

Future contracts ("paper") for crude oil is selling "at a discount" to spot crude oil. Is that surprising? Does it mean that soon the world will no longer be able to use the futures markets for crude oil?

Backwardation is a recurring phenomenon, and does not necessarily mean the impending destruction of the marketplace.

Cheers,

THC
Holtzman
Statistics 2
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/0504/6109050chart1.htmHoltzman here,

--------------
Statistics Reliable?
--------------

To ORO, who asked in (05/04/00; 16:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29940), "How sure are you of the figures" Holtzman posted in Holtzman (05/04/00; 14:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29935).

That's quite probably the biggest obstacle to divining this market. It's known precisely how many shares of Royal Dutch there have been at various stages in the past, but it's far more difficult to determine the same thing about above ground gold. The reason is soon clear: with a paper asset such as stock, one absolutely must publicly declare one's ownership in order to practically own the asset. By contrast, with a hard asset such as gold, one's ability to continue possessing it is materially endangered by publicly admitting how much one has where.

The base figures I used came from a number of different sources, presumed somewhat reliable but by no means independently verifiable.

The inflation-adjusted historical prices for gold came from Forbes. [at link given above]

The above ground total figures came variously from Reuters articles, World Gold Council's website, and any other place I stumbled across a comment of the form, "In the year 1XXX, the total amount of gold above ground was TTTTT." I regret to say that my only means of verification was to ask the question, "Does this figure fit the curve being developed by the other figures I've accumulated?"

Finally, the human population figures came from the United Nations.

Be assured, ORO, I enthusiastically welcome correction or confirmation of these figures, and I would even more eagerly welcome additional figures, verified or not, which would help us fill in the gaps.

We research this new gold market together...

Yours,
I.V. Holtzman
TheStranger
MK and ThaiGold
MK - In spite of oil's recent drop of 25% or so (a big drop), the CRB index has hit new recovery highs this week. This makes a mockery of claims by disinflationists that "it is just oil". Further, despite heavy support from the Treasury in the form of buybacks, 30 year bonds have gone from 5.6% to 6.2% in about a month (a big rise). So, yes, as you say, the inflation story is unfolding at MRCI. Throw in the labor picture and we will continue to have wage and price behavior like we haven't seen for a very long time.

Thai - You are talking about people, most of whose wealth is tied up in shares. I doubt very many could cough up the margin necessary to short such large amounts of stock. There is, however, one silver lining for the bulls in the IPO equation, of late. That is, most pending IPOs have been cancelled because of the poor market environment. This, at least, greatly reduces the supply of new shares.
Thanks.
YGM
Repost & Comments......
london telegraph.comSingle Currency

Euro Continues to Crash

Trichet will save the euro like he did Credit Lyonnais!

THE euro crashed to new lows against the pound and the dollar yesterday, deepening the crisis of confidence in the single currency. This prompted fresh warnings that the high level of sterling was crippling British industry, but Tony Blair ruled out intervention to reduce its value.

At the close in London, the euro was valued at 57.08p, down from 58.12p overnight and a launch value of 71p. It closed at 89.18 cents against the dollar, down from 90.77 cents overnight and a launch value of $1.20. It was the first time the euro had fallen below 90 cents, an important benchmark for the currency, since its launch last year.

While the continuing fall means that British holidaymakers on the Continent will get more foreign money for their pound, the price of British exports has risen by 20 per cent in euroland. If, as expected, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee raises interest rates today by a quarter point to 6.25 per cent, the pound could rise still higher against the euro.

Investors who fell for the hype surrounding the euro's launch want to cut their losses. Paul Meggyesi, of Deutsche Bank in London, said: "It has been a one-way trend for an awfully long time and investors have now decided to throw in the towel."

The fall in the euro has wrong-footed Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, who last May announced plans to sell more than half the country's reserves of gold and instructed the Bank of England to reinvest 40 per cent of the proceeds in euros. Mr Brown described the controversial plan as a sensible move aimed at diversifying the reserves.

However, the euro's weakness has led to a direct loss of �34 million. Despite some offsetting gains on dollars and yen, the overall loss is still �26 million.

Yesterday's collapse in the euro sent the pound to 14-year highs against the mark and the franc. It closed at Dm3.43 and at Ff11.49. Michael Heseltine called for Government action to prevent manufacturing industry being wiped out by the strength of sterling.

The former deputy prime minister, who announced last week that he would be standing down as a Tory MP, urged Mr Blair to put an end to the uncertainty over the Government's intentions on the single currency. He claimed that industry was facing "carnage" as a result of the current strength of sterling against the euro.

At a press conference organised by the Britain in Europe campaign, he said Mr Blair could stem the rise in the pound by making clear that it was the Government's intention to join the euro - and at a lower exchange rate rather than sterling's present "unrealistically" high value. Failure to act could bring problems similar to those threatening companies such as Rover at Longbridge and Ford at Dagenham. But Mr Blair told MPs at Question Time that "the worst thing we could do" would be to try to devalue sterling artificially.

The renewed slide in the euro coincided with the European Commission decision to recommend Greece for membership of the eurozone from Jan 1 next year. The announcement was greeted frostily by the European Central Bank, which said that Greece needed to do more to reduce its debts and bring inflation under control.

The prospect of Greek membership had little direct impact on sentiment, but analysts said that it would create a new source of tension within the eurozone. They noted that European economists were already trading accusations about which government was to blame for the euro's dismal performance.

The latest downward lurch in the euro follows news at the end of last week that Jean-Claude Trichet, the governor of the Bank of France, is to be investigated for his role in the scandal surrounding Credit Lyonnais, the French state-owned bank. M Trichet, 57, who sits on the board of the European Central Bank, was the French government candidate for president and has been lined up to succeed Wim Duisenberg when he steps down.

The Trichet affair has added to concerns about the ability of the Central Bank to manage the new currency. Analysts said that sentiment on the euro was now so negative that all news was seen as bad news. They also expressed dismay at the failure of politicians to recognise the seriousness of the problem.

Jim O'Neill, chief currency economist and a partner at Goldman Sachs, said: "Investors are fed up with all those preposterous statements about the euro having potential to appreciate in the long term. If they want people to believe their statements they should back them up with action."

* In a letter published in The Daily Telegraph today, 14 Tory Euro-MPs express concern at reports that Britain's biggest companies could be forced to list their shares in euros rather than sterling after the merger of the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges.

The London Telegraph

COMMENTS......
Jim O'Neill...Goldman partner wants EURO
to take action...won't he be happy if that action is to increase Gold Reserves...."Just what G Sachs needs is a run on Gold..."

Gordon Brown caught wrong-footed....."What an Understatement"........Sell British Gold at Fire sale prices and buy EUROS w/ 40% of the cash and thus far loose
L34 million......Not to mention what was lost by allowing Cabal to neutralize Gold before the sale.....Brits should be
looking for Brown floating in the MOORs......YGM.
Cavan Man
The Stranger
Regarding the financial news this morning, how can the averages rise at all? At the moment the DOW and NDQ are both up. I don't get it. Many thanks...CM
WilloTheWarthog
The Day the NASDAQ DIed
I hope nobody minds this humor too much...

THE DAY THE NASDAQ DIED
(Thanks to Mark Stern)
(to the tune of American Pie)

A long, long week ago
I can still remember
how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.
But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt

I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
Now I'm gettin' calls for margin
'Cause my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks
from a new all-time high
And now we're right back
where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
QCOM at 150 or above?
'Cos George Gilder told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio?

Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found
I never worried on the whole way up
Buying dot coms
from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck

It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died....
USAGOLD
Today's Market Report: Gold Industry Optimism Prevails

"0">




















5/5/00 Indications  Current  Change
Gold June Comex 281.90 +0.70
Silver July Comex 5.13 -0.04
30 Yr TBond June
CBOT
93~20 -0~06
Dollar Index June
NYBOT
111.30 -0.40

Market Report (5/5/00): Gold surged ahead this morning
on sound fundamentals, inflation fears, short covering and a sense that
the negatives on gold have become a known quantity and already discounted
in the price. In addition the gold market is beginning to benefit from
the growing sense among investors that the equity markets are possibly
running out of gas, and a prudent hedge is in order 'just in case.' We
can attest to the presence of this new group of investors by reporting
a surge in business over the last few days primarily from first time investors
who are telling us that the "feel" in the markets is changing.


The good news for gold has added to the rising tide of optimism
in the gold industry itself. Randal Oliphant, Barrick Gold Corporation
CEO, "sees a stronger gold price due to the nature of gold deposits,
strong supply-demand fundamentals" and the Washington Agreement among
central bankers to limit sales and leases, according to Bridge News report
yesterday. He went on to say that demand to borrow gold will likely remain
at reduced levels. Ronald Cambre, Newmont Mining chairman, echoed the same
themes yesterday saying he was optimistic about prices adding that "hedging
has lost favor with investors." In what can only be described as a
somewhat cryptic comment that begs for elaboration, Goldfields CEO Chris
Thompson was quoted in Bloomberg as saying, "We do believe the industry
does need to consolidate. The industry needs one or two dominant players
who can ensure that the gold price doesn't get managed by others (non-gold
companies). Our industry has a crying need for that. The climate is warming
for us to do a deal." In that we agree with Mr. Thompson that the
gold price has been "managed" in the past, the reference makes
one wonder what Mr. Thompson has in mind. How would a mega-mining company
thwart the "managers?" I would say that given Mr. Thompson's
solid pro-gold stance both by word and deed, that if I had a vote on who
would run that company, he would get it.


In gold news,Asia reports short covering overnight with good dealer
support. There was selling in the London market early on. The unemployment
numbers came in at 30 year lows -- the sort of thing that has rattled the
stock market in the past. As we go to send this over to the server, stocks
are ignoring the unemployment numbers and gold is down a little. We'll
see what happens as the day progresses. This might not hold.


That's it for today, my friends. Have a good weekend. See you here
Monday.


The May News & Views is now on its way and should be
hitting your mail boxes over the next few days. We think you are going
to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street
Meltdown.


If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial
markets as well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal,
our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious
Metals
has been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and
down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of Charge If you want to
keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning public
does it, and has done it for over a decade.


Just click here ---> TARGET="external">ORDER FORM <--- and make the appropriate
entries.


For an on-going discussion on the gold market and the investment
universe that revolves around it, we invite you to visit our very popular
and highly visited TARGET="external">DISCUSSION FORUM.








PLEASE REMEMBER: It is your purchase of gold from Centennial Precious
Metals that nourishes these pages.












"2">
USAGOLD
Let's try this again. . .Today's Report: Gold Industry Optimism Prevails
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/5/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
281.90
+0.70
Silver July Comex
5.13
-0.04
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
93~20
-0~06
Dollar Index June NYBOT
111.30
-0.40

Market Report (5/5/00): Gold surged ahead this morning on sound fundamentals, inflation
fears, short covering and a sense that the negatives on gold have become a known quantity and
already discounted in the price. In addition the gold market is beginning to benefit from the
growing sense among investors that the equity markets are possibly running out of gas, and a
prudent hedge is in order 'just in case.' We can attest to the presence of this new group of
investors by reporting a surge in business over the last few days primarily from first time investors
who are telling us that the "feel" in the markets is changing.

The good news for gold has added to the rising tide of optimism in the gold industry itself. Randal
Oliphant, Barrick Gold Corporation CEO, "sees a stronger gold price due to the nature of gold
deposits, strong supply-demand fundamentals" and the Washington Agreement among central
bankers to limit sales and leases, according to Bridge News report yesterday. He went on to say
that demand to borrow gold will likely remain at reduced levels. Ronald Cambre, Newmont
Mining chairman, echoed the same themes yesterday saying he was optimistic about prices adding
that "hedging has lost favor with investors." In what can only be described as a somewhat cryptic
comment that begs for elaboration, Goldfields CEO Chris Thompson was quoted in Bloomberg as
saying, "We do believe the industry does need to consolidate. The industry needs one or two
dominant players who can ensure that the gold price doesn't get managed by others (non-gold
companies). Our industry has a crying need for that. The climate is warming for us to do a deal."
In that we agree with Mr. Thompson that the gold price has been "managed" in the past, the
reference makes one wonder what Mr. Thompson has in mind. How would a mega-mining
company thwart the "managers?" I would say that given Mr. Thompson's solid pro-gold stance
both by word and deed, that if I had a vote on who would run that company, he would get it.

In gold news,Asia reports short covering overnight with good dealer support. There was selling in
the London market early on. The unemployment numbers came in at 30 year lows -- the sort of
thing that has rattled the stock market in the past. As we go to send this over to the server, stocks
are ignoring the unemployment numbers and gold is down a little. We'll see what happens as the
day progresses. This might not hold.

That's it for today, my friends. Have a good weekend. See you here Monday.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click here on link above and make the appropriate entries.
SHIFTY
Albania Gold Heist
Hannibal Cannibal crowd WAS out of amo. Looks like they got some now. Hmmmmmm I wonder ???
SHIFTY
Albania Gold Heist
I did hear " GOLD is were you find it "
YGM
Ahhh!...Another Day of Goldbugs Getting
screwed by the PPT.....There is one "Major" positive event for us....The "Three Horsemen" of Manipulators Appocolypse riding into Washington.......Three of the greatest Advocates for Gold and free markets that we have to offer...Reginald Howe, Frank Veneroso and our own Bill Murphy.....We should be thankful for GATAs efforts.....or do we just sit back and take this crap like whipped dogs......Send $$$$ to GATA, and become a part of the solution.......YGM.
Henri
Holtzman 29935/29978 and ORO 29940
Thanx for putting some numbers to my query and turning around my perception that gold is an appreciating asset :-(

Interestingly, I find the UN population figures disturbing in 10 year increments

from 1970-1980 the global population rose 20% while gold stores rose 23%

from 1980-1990 the global population rose 19% while gold stores rose 19%

then from 1990-1999 the global population rose only 13% while gold stores rose 34%?

Has aids stifled population growth of the world that significantly! I think not. Sure it is only a 9 year period and the others are 10, but this could not make up the difference of 7% could it. We are living longer here in the US but dying earlier elsewhere? Did the ZPG folks actually get their message across in the seventies (I know it worked on me) Certainly China's policies could have impacted the numbers but to this extent? I would like to see the global population decrease but fear the types of circumstances that could bring this about.

The 34% rise in gold stores is believable since the price spike in the eighties and subsequent mining no doubt came full force in the last decade.

Is this all that is needed to enforce a depreciation of this asset? A higher price? More Mining/exploration? I say right on! Bring it on!

ORO

What's up with that last set of #'s you posted?
$/oz divided by Humans/oz = $/human!!!
Is this how much we as humans are worth when sent through the gold valuation filter, or is this how much each human should have invested in gold???? Looks like humanity is a depreciating asset if was ever one (an asset) at all. Seems like the # of $ circulating vs # of humans should factor in somehow. :-)
Leigh
Henri
http://worldnetdaily.comDear Henri: WorldNetDaily had an eye-opening article just the other day about how population rates are actually falling. Click on WorldNetDaily, then do a search for "population" in their search engine (on the left hand side of the screen). The article is called (something like) "The Overpopulation Myth."
Henri
@ Lady Leigh
Thanks for the link, I have visited their site frequently over the last few years. Always something curiously interesting there.
TheStranger
Cavan Man's Question
People who are bullish tend to hold off buying until bad news is out of the way. Today, the bad news was the employment numbers. Many of these same people are short-term traders who will sell prior to the next widely expected bad news, which is likely to be the PPI and CPI.

Few investors saw inflation coming. Now that it is here, few doubt the Fed's ability to quickly dispatch the problem. For this reason, lots of people think they are going to outsmart this bear market by buying "at the lows". At the final bottom, however, these sentiments will be all but gone.

PEs are still very high by any historical standard. Bond yields are still way too low to compensate investors for the inflation we are already getting. Despite widespread predictions to the contrary, the economy has not yet begun to slow (sorry, Farfel). The Fed absolutely has NOT YET EVEN BEGUN TO FIGHT. It has taken them a YEAR just to push rates up 125 basis points. (This is why they will now have to accelerate the process. Yet, ironically, the pollyannas are hoping the Fed WILL raise 50 basis points so that we can declare it a coup de grace and get back to the bull market). Meanwhile, the supply of money continues to grow. M3 has gone from 6 to 6.7 trillion dollars in just the last 4 months(Even the Treasury is now contributing by retiring billions of dollars worth of bonds).

So, my take on this is that the dipsters are WAY TOO EARLY here. As I like to keep saying, "They didn't see the problem coming, so why should we believe them when they tell us it has passed?"

We here at the forum need to remember that, in the short run, markets ebb and flow. But, if we have done our homework well, as I think we have, things will turn out fine in the end.

Thanks for asking, CM.
Henri
Found it
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_lobaido_news/20000502_xnlob_the_overpo.shtmlYep there it is but there are no documented #'s to back up the claims. Just referrals to other studies from which the numbers were lifted (in context?)

Hey Al Fulchino
There is an ad at the bottom for the "Finding God in Physics" book you sent.
WilloTheWarthog
From Berlin-Online
http://www.BerlinOnline.de/wirtschaft/.html/dpa_w3_afp161_4_0505_0505180800.htmlECB vice-president: Euro-guardians could intervene on foreign exchange market
Budapest, 5 May (AFP) - in view of the weak euro exchange rate the European central bank (EZB) did not exclude an intervention on the foreign exchange market. An intervention is possible, if it is judged necessary, said EZB vice-president Christian Noyer on Friday before journalists in Budapest. Over such a step he would meanwhile never express in advance, added the deputy Wim Duisenberg aside at a commercial conference in the Hungarian capital. "We always said: That is a tool, which we have in our hands "
WilloTheWarthog
Euro
http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,2320'seq-2070-53522-QUO,00.htmlHere is another article on the Euro, from Le Monde. You can run it through Babelfish and translate it into English if your French isn't so hot (http://babel.altavista.com/, paste the url into the slot). It's saying that the UK is the Trojan Horse of Europe, anaylzing the fall of the Euro.

Although much has has been forgotten by the general population in Europe over the past 50 years about the r�le gold plays as a monetary instrument, remember that the first shot was fired back in September for the remonetization of gold. Not much favorable is reported in the US about the EU; however, attitudes are changing in Europe. While there in March, I read articles in different financial periodicals about a conference that was being held in Portugal. Europe fully expects to overtake the US during the next ten years. They also expect the US stock market and the dollar to take a big hit sometime. Of course, the ECB may have to intervene in the short term; but there is a confidence in the future that has been slowly developing over the past several years.

Perhaps the Euro is not directly backed by gold, in that there is not a set redemption rate. But the gold reserves held by EU banks is still significant.

Sure, Europe is stuck in a quagmire of socialism and overregulation. Things are loosening up, though. Some breakthrough came this year with the allowance of temporary (work) agencies in Germany; this could develop as a backdoor way to lower the cost of employment.

I know this opinion is not popular in the US, but I view the setback of the Euro as a temporary anomaly, due to overvaluation of the US dollar rather than a fundamental problem of the currency.
Black Blade
RossL and THC, Palladium squeeze
It should not come as a surprise that there be a palladium squeeze. We hear that persistent cry "The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming!". Yet there is no confirmation of official deliveries from the Russians. Likely there are black market sales from the Russian Mafia and Corrupt Russian officials (Usually one and the same). The supply draw-down of palladium will likely become more severe. Even if Russia resumes deliveries, there is no way that the demand can be met. I would suspect that there will be little if any announcements about palladium. The big users of palladium don't wish to run up prices, and the exchanges don't want to create panic or else they will just follow TOCOM's lead and default. Simply put, there isn't enough palladium to satisfy demand. This monkey business with the TOCOM is just one of many red flags here. Ted Butler could be right about the silver market being in as bad of a situation as well. The big money - Buffet, Soros, and Gates have placed their bets on Silver (and possibly other PMs too). I'm afraid that much of the news about these PM markets is being suppressed. If news about severe shortages were to become common knowledge, we could expect to see the PM markets default and declare Force majuere on all deliveries. I for one will remain with physical and mostly unhedged producers. BTW, added 6.5 more ounces of Barrick safety award gold yesterday (at spot!), plan to get a bit more this afternoon.
ORO
Henri - Real dollars per person
The Holtzman figures in H/Oz are compared to real $ per oz. The result is real $ per H as a price rather than a ratio of totals (# of dollars in float per H, or something like that). H/Oz is the supposed measure of supply (Oz) and demand (H) ratio.

The concept is that there should be some correlation between them, if there is one, it should either come out when the two figures are divided (for a linear relation going through 0,0) or plotted one against the other.

The numbers don't quite work out, but they do show a consistent floor. Gold production in the 1840s and 1850s expanded dramatically, as it had at the turn of the previous century. The surprising thing is that these periods should mark the same bottoms in the price relationships.

Black Blade
YGM and getting screwed!
hey guy, don't think of it as getting screwed by the PPT. Think of it as a big sale on PMs. Actually I use my profits from my other stocks (techs, and gulp - yes dot.coms) to purchase PMs and PM stock and even some high yeilding utes. I'm content to bide my time accumulating a nice stash. I get fewer ulcers if I think of it in this manner. Besides, the manipulators will eventually get their comeuppance. You can only push a balloon under water so far, before it breaks loose and skyrockets above the surface! Take care - Black Blade.
SHIFTY
Just for fun
A man takes the day off work and decides to go out golfing.He is on the second hole when he notices a frog sitting next to the green. He thinks nothing of it and is about to shoot when he hears, "Ribbit 9 Iron".
The man looks around and doesn't see anyone. Again , he hears, "Ribbit 9 Iron." He looks at the frog and decides to prove the frog wrong, puts the club away and grabs a 9 iron.
Boom! He hits it 10 inches from the cup. He is shocked. He says to the frog , "Wow that's amazing. You must be a lucky frog, eh?" The frog replies, " Ribbit Lucky frog." The man decides to take the frog with him to the next hole.
What do you think frog? the man asks. " Ribbit 3 wood."
The guy takes out a 3 wood and ,Boom! Hole in one. The man is befuddled and dosent know what to say.By the end of the day , the man golfed the best game of golf in his life and asked the frog , "ok where to next?" The frog replies," Ribbit Las Vegas".
They go to Las Vegas and the guy says, " Okfrog, now what? The frog says "Ribbit Roulette." Upon approaching the roulette table , the man asks, " What do you think I should bet?" The frog replies, "Ribbit $3000., black 6." Now , this is a million-to-one shot to win, but after the golf game the man figures what the heck. Boom!! Tons of cash comes sliding back across the table.
The man takes his winnings and buys the best room in the hotel. He sits the frog down and says, "Frog , I don't know how to repay you.You've won me all this money and I am forever grateful." The Frog replies ,"Ribbit kiss me". He figures why not, since after all the frog did for him , he deserves it. With a kiss the frog turns into a gorgeous 15-year old girl.
And that, your honor ,is how the girl ended up in my room. So help me GOD or my name is not William Jefferson Clinton.
Rhody
Lease rates, gold above ground, EURO
LEASE RATES
An across the board increase of about .01% predicted
the fall in spot prices today, also, gold usually has a
bad day on Fridays. A lease rate surge of this magnitude
indicates that actual leasing volumes rose about 2%.
It is my opinion that the inflationary unemployment
rate figures guaranteed an attack on pog to head off any
rotation into the ultimate safe haven. Even the XAU was
hit, and this was done before the attack on pog about 10:30,
as gold stocks were weak from the opening of NY markets.

HOLTZMAN
Your study of above ground ounces of gold per capita
was very interesting. To those who are concerned that there
is a tripling of per capita gold supplies since 1850, and
that population growth seems to be slowing while mine output
remains high, we must remember that slower population growth
enhances per capita incomes, allowing more investment income
per capita to be available for gold consumption. Besides
the somewhat pessimistic ratio of gold supply to population
ignores the volume of paper assets that have been printed
in excess of physical reality. Population growth has fallen from 2.1%/yr in 1980 to about 1.8% now. This is
still exponential, and will result in the total mass of
human protoplasm equalling the total mass of planet earth
in approximately 400 years. This scenario is about as
likely as the US dollar surviving as the world reserve
currency for ten more years.

Willo The Warthog
Yes the EURO is suffering a little birth trauma here,
but I really do think the EU is far sounder as an economic
entity than the US. In fact the decline of the EURO is
a function of the lower interest rates set by the ECB, while
the high dollar is high only because of the capital sucked
in by high US rates. The high US rates are signalling
weakness. The real question here is what the ECB is likely
to do about this, given that in this second volley of the
currency war (Washington Accord was volley #1.) the EURO
appears to be seriously damaged.

1. The ECB could raise interest rates. (doubtful, as this
would damage European recovery out of the Russian collapse and Asian Crisis.)

2. The ECB could sell US treasuries. (This would be highly
inflationary in the US as they would just monetize, and
then raise US rates again to control inflation. This
in turn might collapse both US equity and bond markets,
creating systemic risk)

3. The ECB could raise the gold backing of the EURO, and
buy gold on the open market to offset the inevitable
retaliation on the price of gold.

4. ? Perhaps someone with more financial knowledge could supply some additional strategies here.
TownCrier
Glitches, hackers, and extremely virulent computer bugs...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000505/g4.htmlJust another among many reasons to value to yellow metal even in a high-tech world.

According to this Reuters article, the "love bug" and is offspring have rapidly spread around the globe from astarting point thought to be in Asia. It is said to have disabled tens of millions of computers, and has created losses now estimated to be in the billions.

Samir Bhavnani, a research analyst with Computer Economics said, "We estimate $2.61 billion of damage has been done. By Wednesday, the total can reach $10 billion. We see damages growing by $1 billion to $1.5 billion a day until the virus is eradicated."
WilloTheWarthog
Rhody-More on Euro
4. They can play a waiting game. That is what I believe they are doing.

It is not only the Europeans who could dump US debt. This is a strategic weakness that is not recognized (at least anywhere in the US that I have read) by most US analysts.

China certainly recognizes this. From the book "Unrestricted Warfare", two quotes:

"Today, when nuclear weapons have already become frightening mantlepiece decorations that are losing their real operational value with each passing day, financial war has
become a "hyperstrategic" weapon that is attracting the attention of the world. This is because financial war is easily manipulated and allows for concealed actions, and is also highly destructive. By analyzing the chaos in Albania not long ago, we can clearly see the role played by various types of foundations that were set up by transnational groups and millionaires with riches rivaling the wealth of nation states. These foundations control the media, control subsidies to political organizations, and limit any resistance from the authorities, resulting in a collapse of
national order and the downfall of the legally authorized government. Perhaps we could dub this type of war "foundation-style" financial war. The greater and greater frequency and intensity of this type of war, and the fact that more and more countries and non-state organizations are
deliberately using it, are causes for concern and are facts that we must face squarely."

"...if the attacking side secretly musters large amounts of capital without the enemy nation being aware of this at all and launches a sneak attack against its financial markets, then after causing a financial crisis, buries a computer virus and hacker detachment in the opponent's computer system in advance, while at the same time carrying out a network attack against the enemy so that the civilian electricity network, traffic dispatching network, financial transaction network, telephone communications network, and mass media network are completely paralyzed, this will cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic, street riots, and a political crisis. There is finally the forceful bearing down by the army, and military means are utilized in gradual stages until the enemy is forced to sign a dishonorable peace treaty."

I have seen *very* little on this in the US press. The world economic situation could change rapidly if such attacks were to occur.
WilloTheWarthog
Unrestricted Warfare
http://www.terrorism.com/documents/unrestricted.pdf...For anyone who cares to peruse this 20th century masterpiece.
Galearis
@Willo-the-Warthog re: Rhody
I agree, I agree, I agree. The EU really does not have to do anything except sit back and let the fiscal fundamentals assert. As ORO stated earlier, the demise of the dollar was set as of 1998 - or really from the Nixon default. Thank goodness the Euro is the firefighter to catch the victims leaping from the house of dollars.

Rhody also believes, as do I, that the ECB will not make a fools rush in to fire another golden bullet at the US again, as the fundamental weaknesses of a paper derivative market will over time address and reflect the reality. Paper burns, gold doesn't.

If they can maintain the farce over the coming months, then the bleed of physical will end up in some honest pockets (ours) at the discount of paper prices. It is the price they pay for a crooked market and it never hurts to remind gold bugs of this. For every gain there is a loss, for every loss there is a gain. Their loss is the cheap gold.
WilloTheWarthog
Press Release from Wim Duisenberg Today
http://www.ecb.intThis just came up on the ECB site. I don't want to beat this to death, hope it's interesting:

ECB PRESS RELEASE

Statement on the euro by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank

5 May 2000

The current development of the euro's exchange rate has given rise to questions from European citizens who are concerned about the value of their currency. To them, I would like to say the following: I understand their concerns, since a persistently lower euro exchange rate might ultimately lead to higher prices in the shops. It may also undermine the perception of the euro as a stable currency. Therefore, we at the ECB monitor the euro exchange rate very closely.

Citizens should feel reassured by the fact that prices are currently stable in the euro area. Indeed, over the last decades there have been few periods in which prices have been stable for so long. This internal stability of the euro means that people can be confident that their savings and pensions will keep their value over time.

In order to counter risks to price stability the ECB has over the past six months taken measures and increased interest rates four times already. It will continue to do all it can to maintain price stability in the euro area. This will also help to turn the current economic upswing into a long period of high economic growth and falling unemployment. European citizens can be assured that the future of the euro is that of a strong currency, based on price stability and the strength of the European economy.
ORO
THC - price setting in futures markets
There is more to the PM markets than the futures. The PMs have a status as money and one can open gold accounts at almost any major bank and some (few) offer silver, and plat. The IMF has official settlement prices for the PMs mentioned, it does not have one for Pd.

Because of there being banking activities in these PMs the futures markets in these function as currency markets do. The one exception to this is the case of physical shortage.

The trading on the futures markets is "equalized" by arbitrage as described in the Black-Scholes equation in its various guises. The one limitation on effective arbitrage between the most active month (where the dollar volume is) and the physical markets is the availability of physical with which to take a position.

In the kind of severe backwardation we see today in Plat, and we have seen before in Pd, the arbitrageur wanting to play the "sure thing" 5.5-5.8% return on monthly backwardation would need to do one of the following, according to their position:
Holder of Pt would simply sell the Pt and buy the next month future. Alternately, he would make available the Pt to a dollar based arbitrageur at a portion of the "lease rate". Another wat to profit is to sell active month call options (which have high volatility premiums) and delta hedge the option on the same-month future. The risk is that of losing your Pt while being locked out of the market during limit up days that don't allow you to continue the delta hedge. You would not lose DOLLARS, but you risk your Pt holding.

The dollar arbitrageur can profit from the arbitrage by:
1. borrowing physical Pt below the lease rate (if possible) and selling physical while buying the future contract.
2. Selling the current active contract and buying the next contract.
3. Become a Pt owner by buying Pt and using one of the holder's strategies above.

Since PM accounts at banks (bullion banks) are not normally fully allocated, the bank has ownership of the deposited bullion and owes you the bullion upon demand or at a set date (a Pt CD). The bank will make use of the above strategies to gain profit from the arbitrage.

The most common form of arbitrage is the delta hedged option. However, delta hedging is not the smartest way to profit in "normal" circumstances. Normally, the bank will be familliar with the positions of its competitors and allies in the markets and can join with them in pushing the markets in their favor.

To make the banker's position clear, the business of banking is the marketing of debt. The demominator of the debt need not be on hand at all. When one opens a non-allocated gold account (the normal type of gold account), then the bank is under no obligation to have any gold to back the account. The bank only needs the gold when the gold is requested for delivery in hand or into a fully allocated account.

Thus the banker will take your dollars deposited as a gold account, and use them to buy bonds or lend. If gold or Pt was deposited the bank will do one of the following:
1. If currency interest rates are higher than metal lease rates, it will sell the metal, buy the currency and invest it.
2. If the lease rate is the higher rate, the bank will lend the metal itself.
3. If reserves are low, and there is danger of a "bank run" (depositors of metals asking for their metal) then the bank will keep the metal for reserves, however, it will sell call options into the market in order to make a return on the reserves. Often, these calls would be delta hedged.

When the banking system is over-extended, which is very very common, it can:
(1) take a defensive position by buying metal - the plus is coverage of positions, the minus is that the market will move against the bank,
(2) it can try to move the market towards its position - the plus is that the danger of depositor psychology moving against the bank is likely to be eliminated, the minus is that the banks will be further burried in their position, (3) roll over obligations to longer maturities to limit immediate demand and buy short term futures and physical to assure supply,
(4) Work with other banks to avoid them all stepping into the market in the same direction. Since all banks do the same kind of business, they will all share the same problems at the same time. The Fed got the banks together during the LTCM crissis in order to avoid having them "run for their lives" and try to liquidate the same positions as LTCM held at the same time that LTCM was doing so. Before that and since, the banks regularly confer and make decisions on this kind of "systemic risk" so as to avoid their seeking liquidity at the same time. Since banks can only supply more "paper" or liquidate more reserves, that will be what they will all do.
(5) If a bank has a very large client who has an allocated account, or has physical, the bank may look for the appropriate return for the holder so that the physical could be made available to "liquify" the bank. The return is not necessarilly in the form of monetary reward by high interest rates. It may take the form of political assistance, the selling of a desired asset well below market price (say, arranging for the buyout of Chrysler, helping Prince Alwaleed -sp? get a chnk of Microsoft, or getting both French and American forces to stage an appearance with massive force in Kuwait).

In short, things in the PM markets are in no way similar to those in the commodities markets.
Peter Asher
TownCrier (05/05/00; 11:46:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 30000)
I would like to think that our group here are not part of the great thoughtless masses who havn't yet "Got it" that you don't open up an E-mail "Attachment" from a scource you don't know! As P.T. Barnum said "there's a sucker born every day."
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May54, 2000

Rates for Thursday, May 4, 2000

Federal funds 6.05

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.90
10-year 6.46
20-year 6.59
30-year 6.19

right-side up spread FF vs long bond = +.14%

Harley Davidson
Peter Asher, TC, additional info...
The reason this particular virus propagated so quickly is because it sent emails to everyone in the individuals machine's address book so if your email address was in my address book and I opened the attachment (which would have come in an email from someone who has my email address in their address book) then you would have received an email from me with the viral attachment. The rule is - never open an email attachment (especially a .exe, this virus is a .vbs) from someone you don't know. Having received email from me in the past (as your email address was in my address book), I suspect you would have opened the attachment.

I work at a software development company. One of our software engineers received the virus email from one of our clients. The natural thing to do would be to open the attachment, and he did. Of course he is kicking himself now. Immediately, the email showed up on my machine but I had read the CNBC article about fifteen minutes earlier and brought the issue to his attention.

This issue exposes a very real problem with the Microsoft Windows environment which is that it is incredibly vulnerable to this kind of attack. The virus was a .vbs file. This is a Visual Basic Script file. So all one has to do is write a program using this scripting tool and attach it to an email. When it is opened, it has complete and total access to the entire host machine and Windows will execute it without question. In other words, it is way too easy for anyone with a computer and a VB Script for Dummies book to cause potentially billions of dollars of damage. I went on a rant several days ago about Microsoft and what I thought of their technology so I will not repeat those thoughts here. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't some lawyers out there wondering if there might be a class action suit against Microsoft in all of this.

Lastly, this "hacker" was no genius as he missed several opportunities to do some "serious" damage. For instance, instead of sending emails to all addresses in the address book, it would have been far more effective to cycle through the "Sent Mail" folder and email to everyone that the host ever sent email to. There are other examples but they are better left unsaid.
Rhody
@ Willo The Warthog
Your press release from W. Duisenberg suggests that the
ECB may resist raising interest rates to defend the EURO,
as this might stifle European economic recoveries.

I am quite sure that the ECB would prefer to do nothing,
and allow the EURO carry to continue to expand the debt
trap. I don't think the EURO is ready to confront the
dollar directly yet. For one thing, the EURO group
won't issue currency and coins until Jan 2002.
The LBMA, at present rates of volume decline will not
dead market until April 2002, and I'm sure ECB members
want more time to withdraw their earmarked (monetary)
gold from the NY Federal Reserve Bank. If the currency
war becomes hot, I expect the US will seize this European
gold, and perhaps use it to bail out the derivative
exposure of GS, J. P. Moragan and other bullion banks
involved in this intervention.
If the Fed raises rates by .5% in mid May (increasingly
likely) then we could see one of my first 3 options, but
doing nothing will be difficult.
It occurred to me that a flanking attack on silver
might put a great deal of indirect pressure on the minions
of the Fed. My impression that silver is so tight that
direct purchase of a large quantity of silver, say 50 M oz
would blow up that market and place the same people shorting
gold under unbearable pressure. It might put a large number of American gold producers with large silver books
underwater, and out of business. At the present price
of silver the whole move would cost ECB members only
$250 million, all funded by sale of soon to be worthless
US Treasuries.
MarkeTalk
Propping up the euro
Reuters wire service today carried a story by Apu Sikri, who stated that "financial heavy-weights" were backing intervention on behalf of the euro. He quoted such luminaries as George Soros (famous currency speculator who made about $1 billion shorting the British Pound), Lionel Jospin (French Prime Minister), and Eisuke Sakakibara (also known as "Mr. Yen" when he was Japan's former vice finance minister). All of these gentlemen believe it is time for the European Central Bank to intervene and sell U.S. Dollars. Keep in mind that such currency interventions have in the past occurred over weekends when markets are closed. It appears that the U.S. Dollar is in a blow-off phase and could turn at any time. Most likely, the ECB will wait for an opportune time when economic data weaken the U.S. stock market and the inflows of money from around the world turn into outflows of money going back home.

Cycles indicate that gold and silver are bottoming between now and Memorial Day. Prices may have already seen their lows for this move and may be ready to spring higher on weakness in stocks. Commodity inflation is coming back with a vengeance. Just look at the weather around the country and you will know why the grain complex is soaring and cattle, hogs and bellies are selling off. It is the driest in the Midwest since 1934, the dustbowl days of the Great Depression. And America is now the bread basket to the world. Food prices are going higher and there is no PPT to keep them down as is done with gold and silver. Why? Because you can't print cornflakes or oatmeal. Watch the CRB Index because Alan Greenspan does. Commodity price inflation is the sleeper this year which will catapult the precious metals.
Peter Asher
Harley Davidson (5/5/2000; 15:38:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 30008)
That's pretty scary! Sounds like the only sure-fire protection is to query the alleged sender of an attachment before opining it.
Peter Asher
Harley re- Virus
Robin just told me that this virus suceptibility is only in Microsoft's "Outlook" e-mail program.

This may be an off-site discussion. Peter@peterasher.com

(no attachments please {:-)
Harley Davidson
Peter,
Probably the best solution is for people to understand what kind of files can cause this kind of damage. Not only are .exe files and .vbs files dangerous because they execute when opened, but even a Word document or an Excel spreadsheet (I believe) can contain a macro that executes when the document is opened and can cause damage. At least Windows will tell you that the Word document contains a Macro and ask if you want to open it. So, in addition to .exe attachments, never open a .vbs or a .doc file or .xls file without (as you said) verifying with the sender first.

BTW, I just saw on TV that, in less than 24 hours, the FBI thinks they know who the guy is - a 15 year old in the Philippines. They want a search warrant to search the kid's home. Like I said, this guy was no genius.
Peter Asher
Once-upon-a-time, on The Forum
Euro, We Hardly Knew Ye'
USAGOLD (12/2/98; 17:10:50MDT - Msg ID:1110)
"A monstrous wooden horse.........
Will gold move upon euro introduction? Yes. I think euro introduction will turn out to be the
most important monetary event since Nixon devalued the dollar in the early 1970s. We all know
what that did to the gold price. And yes. I think it will move the price of gold substantially
higher (though I would be surprised if the movement was immediate). Why? Because it will no
longer be necessary to defend the dollar, or accede to the dollar, with a viable alternative
available to anyone who would want to use it. I think that's why the euro was introduced in the
first place. Let me put it this way: If the world financial community and central bankers,
particularly of the European variety, were satisfied to live with the dollar, why would they
bother introducing a new currency in the first place?........ In the upcoming issue of News &
Views (about ready to go to the printer) I liken euro introduction to the Trojan Horse. While our
illustrious leaders tell us ad infinitum that somehow the euro is going to be good for us and the
dollar, many of us wonder with what understandings these statements are being made. In looking
up the passage in The Odyssey about the wooden horse, I was interested to see that Homer is
very specific that the Trojans themselves wheeled the horse within the walls of Troy.

USAGOLD (12/2/98; 17:22:46MDT - Msg ID:1111)
FORUM BUSINESS....CALLING ALL FELLOW GOLDMEISTERS!
What is the most often mentioned reason for purchasing gold these days:

1. Euro introduction
2. Y2K
3. Stock market over-valuation
4. Economic breakdown (Asia contagion)


bmacd (12/2/98; 18:21:36MDT - Msg ID:1112)
USA Forum Business
I haven't posted much at all lately, and I've felt a bit out of touch, but this sounds like something I
can tackle. Personally I think that the strongest reason used for the rise in the price of gold is
between the Euro Introduction and Economic breakdown. I think the two are fairly well linked
really. The Asian contagion, is setting off a wave of currency troubles and devaluations. It is
also setting off a wave of economic troubles due to trade balances and imbalances and
commodity pricing. That's a very short summation, and overly brief I know. The US dollar as
the last bastion of currency safety doesn't look too stable when you pick apart the economy, the
ridiculously overvalued market, and paramount, the over-time rolling of the printing presses
(again very brief). So as this happiness is all hitting the fan, along comes the Euro (in like a
month!!). Well now what happens. If people flock to the Euro, down goes the dollar, and up
goes the price of gold. Definitely central banks are going to hold some Euro in reserves. I see
selling of American dollars to do so. None of this is going to be smooth. Enter some extra
confusion and turmoil....enter gold. Now I know that Another could (and I wish would) go into
incredible depth about these balances, he/she is great at it. There is no way that the Euro
introduction will be easy and flawless (humans are involved) and already too many doubt that
it'll survive anyways. Also with world trade, certainly with commodities and oil priced in US
dollars, there's got to be incredible turbulence with the Euro's introduction, and this will hit the
dollar. The dollar has been that last strength for so long now, that I believe to hold value, buy
financial insurance, and level off massive fluctuations, that then people will go back to gold.
Now maybe these are the arguments that I hear the most, because I tune into them, and maybe
they are two entirely separate issues (#s 1 and 4) but that's the way I hear/see it anyways.
Hey it felt great to post again. Thanks USA Gold for asking the right question!!!

bmacd (12/2/98; 19:55:00MDT - Msg ID:1116)
USAGold
No doubt, your friends are dead on right that the Fed is printing like crazy to buy back the flood
of US Treasuries coming back into the market. But here's the paradox (keeping in mind that I'm
no genius, nor do I have Alan Greenspan's job, but sometimes things seem too obvious not to
comment on). So they manage to buy back the debt being sold into the market. In doing so, the
world markets are now awash in US dollars. What has really been accomplished? Central banks
and investors have been holding US dollars as well as US Treasuries for security. So one has
been replaced for another. Seems pretty useless to me, especially when in 29 days and counting
there's a new currency (a major currency I might add) to give the oversupplied US dollar some
competition. Fill me in- is there a method to this madness? To boot, some central banks will sell
US dollars, as well as US Treasuries to buy Euros. I'm not clear on how simply buying time,
isn't going to backfire really badly. The last thing I'ld be happy with is hard currency right now.
Hey, I really missed this!!!!

USAGOLD (12/2/98; 20:22:09MDT - Msg ID:1118)
bmacd: "What has been really accomplished?" bmacd: "What has been really
accomplished?"
What has been accomplished is inflation -- beyond anything that we already understand. The
floodgates are open. What is astonishing is that a man of Greenspan's character and
understandings would be a party to it. Few people know that Greenspan started as a gold bug
(he used to address our conventions before going over to the Fed). He learned his economics at
the knee of Ayn Rand. His deep-seated concern about inflation stems from the fact that his family
lost its wealth in the Nightmare German Inflation (at least that's the story I've been told.) The
name of the game for many years for the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve has been to
buy time. Like the characters in Ayn Rand's novels, Greenspan perhaps sees himself as the
heroic figure who with the full impact of his intellect and will stands against the gathering tide.
bmacd, I have puzzled about this for many months. I do not know if the U.S. Federal Reserve's
position is to fight the euro in behalf of the United States or succumb to it in the full bloom of a
new world order. This is the question on the table, and the one for which I greatly anticipate an
answer in 1999. Your question and concern is a good (valid) one but at the moment it cannot be
answered. This dovetails into the timing question on the future price of gold. If American
decides to fight for the dollar, this battle could stretch on. If America is throwing in the towel on
the dollar, the market's retribution could be quick and deadly, like it was in the early 1970s
when gold rose fivefold in less than 24 months. This is where Another's argument finds
application.

As you can see, I have no answers only a framework within which perhaps we can all consider
what we are really facing here.

PH in LA (12/2/98; 20:39:34MDT - Msg ID:1119)
Forum Business, Golden Reasons and News Items.

Forum Business:
Thanks MK for tossing a little fuel on the fire here. This forum is unique in that there is already a
tradition of extremely well-thought-out posts (from Another and FOA to Aragorn and all the
other thinkers who have graced these pages) that are not easy to just toss off. Much thought goes
into them and it helps motivate us knowing that someone will read them. It would be interesting
to have an idea of traffic on the site even on days when there is little (or no) posting activity. In
any case, it is great to see a little life here again on one of the (potentially) most important sites
on the web.

Reasons for gold purchase:
As for the questions before us, I like bmacd's point that the Economic Breakdown in Asia is
Euro related. This has been discussed by Another and I even recall his (or FOA's) assertion that
Asia was smashed by the BIS to forestall a pre-euro rally in gold. Furthermore, inasmuch as the
gold and yen carry trades have been encouraged by the BIS (and other European CBs) to
provide international liquidity until the Euro becomes reality, the over-valuation (#3) of the
stock market is also part of the same big picture. The strength of the dollar shows that
international investment funds have flowed into US equities (and bonds) which has added fuel to
the US markets. And it has often been pointed out that the introduction of the Euro just at this
time was done to take advantage of financial chaos, offering a whole new financial system that it
would appear will come complete with new computers, software, etc. However, this theory
does seem like a bit of a stretch since the Euro has been in development for decades...more than
long enough to have fixed the Y2K computer problems, as should have been done long ago. In
any case, it would seem like the Euro WILL get some added impetus from financial choas in the
dollar-denominated world, should that actually materialize as predicted (by some). Just the mere
perception of this should be a tangible factor.

So, my thinking is that the financial turmoil headed our way is in many ways a combination of all
of the reasons set forth. Not very original inasmuch as all this has been discussed at length here
with Another and FOA, but that's the way I see it.

News
I was working on a post consisting of a translation of a newspaper story clipped from the
Spanish press in October that was lost during a power interuption yesterday. Rather than slog
through it all again I will sumerize:

Until now, gold purchases in Spain have been subject to the Value Added Tax (VAT) regardless
of whether the purchase was for investment purposes or for industrial usage. The European
Commission has now determined that the application of this tax creates inequallities between
countries and could serve to encourage or discourage investment in gold from one country to
another. Therefore, it has decreed that the VAT tax will no longer be applicable in any of the
Euro countries. The effect is expected to stimulate gold purchases in Spain. The question of
privacy was also behind the new regulations, since the paperwork involved in administering the
tax could be utilized in tracking private gold movements, something that would not be seen as
liberalizing the flow of investment in gold.

There was also a story this morning on "All Things Considered" (National Public Radio) about
efforts within the European Union to equalize tax laws and eventually criminal laws to further
homogenize conditions throughout Europe. The focus of the story was on the reaction to these
trends in England, where popular opinion has precluded (for the moment) England's
participation in the Euro. Prominent mention was made of the politicians' support for English
membership in spite of popular resistence, etc. Mention was also made of a growing awareness
that the Euro is expected to bring economic benefits to participating countries, something that
English leaders are reluctant to renounce.

Did anyone else hear the story? It would be interesting to hear FOA's take on this one. In any
case, an important implication of both items is the progress already being made towards the
monumental task of creating a single European currency. Also, how the currency is but another
step towards the overall goal of European unification, which will ultimately even include
standardization of the various legal and tax systems from one country to another. The
implications of this story just keep getting bigger and bigger. Michael Kosares is right on when
he says that the Euro is argueably the biggest story for gold in the whole 20th century (and
beyond).

PH in LA (12/2/98; 20:56:24MDT - Msg ID:1122)
Little-known facts about Alan Greenspan?
USAGold:
In addition to your mention of Alan Greenspan's previous incarnation as a gold bug is the
equally little-known fact that he is a full-blown member of the board of directors of the BIS. I
have commented on this before, and recall also that Another replied to my comment.

Is this a clue to the direction the Fed plans for defense of the dollar versus the Euro? In many
ways, it almost seems like the Fed has aided and abetted in the creation of the Euro. For
example, their maintenance of the high interest rates that nourished the yen and gold-carry trades
for so many years.

USAGOLD (12/2/98; 21:53:01MDT - Msg ID:1124)
PH in LA....Thank you for showing up tonight...
I want to say how much I appreciate your kind words with respect to me and the FORUM.

As I understand it, Greenspan is not a full fledged voting member of BIS' board, but an observer.
Is this right? I think that the Europeans have seen the handwriting on the wall for some time with
respect to the dollar's overproduction and are simply taking advantage of a bad situation for the
United States to free themselves of long-standing dollar hegemony.

Greenspan's motives are another thing. This massive printing of money that is going on today and
distributed worldwide might be the dollar's swan song. Mr. Greenspan should be questioned
rigorously about gearing up the printing presses "to save the world." I am sure he understands
what this will mean to the American people in the years to come especially when the euro
comes on line to make the dollar "honest" so to speak. He surely knows that the United States
will be unable to keep the paper dollar game afloat when the world has a better alternative, yet
he prints money like there's no tomorrow. This is being done by an individual who should know
better ( as alluded to earlier.)

In the past we could export our inflation and keep prices down in the U.S. by keeping the
dollars, by one machination or another, overseas. At least as chairman of the Fed he could
intellectually justify his actions to some degree by assuring himself that the dollar reserve
advantage made inflation possible without damaging the U.S. economy. Soon we will be unable
to do that. Then what? Are we to endure hyperinflation in this country in order to save the
world?

The great compromise of values engendered by the current Greenspan policy, as we grow to
understand it, could mean the final betrayal of the dollar.

USAGOLD (12/03/98; 17:22:07MDT - Msg ID:1136)
From today's International Herald Tribune..........
"Also hurting the U.S. currency was widespread talk in the markets that the new European
Central Bank, which will manage monetary policy for the 11 countries adopting a single
currency next year, might sell billions of dollars as it looks to beef up its yen reserves."

Such sleight of hand....with one hand you lower interest rates to support the dollar, while you
sell your dollar holdings with the other.

Peter Asher (12/04/98; 12:09:26MDT - Msg ID:1150)
So, starting with the Euro. Much has been said about the potential of this "composite" currency
to compete with the dollar. However, what quacks like the mark and the franc, also quacks like
the lira and the peso. The Euro is, by packaging the Common Market, a currency equaling the
dollar in its scope. But, the strength of the major currencies converting into it could be
weakened by the historical vagaries of the other components. Therefore, the fact of
UNPREDICTABILITY could actually drive assets INTO the dollar, and this could even be
negative for Gold.

USAGOLD (12/4/98; 15:40:04MDT - Msg ID:1151)
Our chief supplier, who does major business with the European banks, tells us that once the euro
is introduced, if the dollar starts sliding, premiums on all these items could go up dramatically
as the dollar goes down -- once again no matter what gold does. Supply could tighten even
more. He says, "I would hedge my bets and buy at least some portion of my gold nest egg now
before January 1, 1999." As most of you already know, $20 gold piece premiums have already
gone through the roof. Also, most pre-1933 items come from European hoards. Another concern
he had is why would any European take dollars for gold if the dollar goes in the tank. Something
worth considering...on a balmy day across the land.

Peter Asher (12/5/98; 00:21:11MDT - Msg ID:1157)
About the Euro: Michael, you questioned why a European would take dollars for gold if the
dollar was going in the tank. Why indeed? We forum folk "believe" that the introduction of the
Euro will cause a fall of the dollar. Certain logics predict this. But what is the truth, and
furthermore, is that truth to be unfolded or is the script already written. It has been said, in
designer circles, that the most powerful man in the world sleeps in a room with floral
wallpaper, but they were referring to the President of the United States not of the Federal
Reserve!

Possibly not even God knows what the Greenspan Gang is really up to, but if A.G. sat down
with all those banks and LTCM, etc., they weren't being speculators!! Now Aragorn III is
referring to the Euro as a Gold Standard, but I thought I caught the word "commemorative" in the
original announcement. A hundred Euro coin could be five cents of zinc, twenty cents of copper,
five dollars of silver, or whatever of gold. (Weren't people turning in pennies for copper in
1979 or so, triggering the zinc alloy of today.) I remember traveling in Italy in 1956 when
anything bigger than fifty lira (eight cents American) was paper. You needed a wad of money to
go to dinner. However it falls out, the coin would have to have a gold value far enough below
its face value to maintain its existence through the highest anticipated (or planned?) price of
gold. Otherwise, the old-fashioned meaning "melt down" would come into play. So what would
be the point? I think the Euro may be as wild a card as the stock market. "Perceived values"
could rule the season, and the trading in the Euro could then create a new set of fundamentals.


Peter Asher (12/6/98; 17:27:05MDT - Msg ID:1184)
Euro/Gold
I just now read a Sunday feature on the Euro. The one item that jumped out was the claim that
corporations will incur far greater expense converting their systems to use it than they are
spending on Y2K. But also, many companies are putting off coming up to speed on the currency
because they are immersed in Y2K preparations.

It seems that "electronic transactions" must be denominated in Euros only after 2002.

I'm just wondering if my theoretical argument on Friday, that the initial uncertainty might in fact
cause the dollar to go up, is what's mysteriously holding Gold down. This is a question, not an
assertion.

bmacd (12/6/98; 18:06:00MDT - Msg ID:1185)
Peter Asher
I think that there will no doubt be plenty of initial uncertainty about the Euro. I, myself, can't
believe that it'll go through nice and smoothly at all (ultiamtely if at all). However, the European
community has made this decision, and at this point, are determined that it will work. Japan will
hold Euros, China has also stated that they will hold Euros as well (to name two). China has
also stated openly that US dollars and or US Treasuries will be sold in exchange. Assuming that
most central banks will be holding Euros as well as US assets, then it seems likely that there
may actually be more US paper put back into the system initially. Supposing, the Euro was
really shaky and looked iffy. Personally, I'ld rather hold Swiss francs or German Deutsche
Marks then instead of the Euro. I see the Swiss Franc being very strong over the next while for
this fact alone. Maybe, just maybe, then another scenario will take place, where in people totally
lose faith in any paper currencies. Now that leaves only gold. I still maintain that how can the
bastion of safety and stability be virtually bankrupt, as is the US dollar?

USAGOLD (12/6/98; 18:12:25MDT - Msg ID:1186)
bmacd and Peter Asher........
There is a possibility that it will take awhile before the full impact of the euro is felt. There is
much uncertainty about this new currency on both sides of the Atlantic, and I do not expect
January 1, 1999 to be like a light going on in the currency markets. However, when the
realization hits that the euro will comprise a significant share of the world's reserves at the cost
of the dollar, it will be as Aragorn III says like "Lightning in the Night." This last lowering of
interest rates by the Europeans was meant to help the yen...not the dollar, just as the lowering of
U.S. rates was to help the yen. This is all meant to deal with the Asian contagion which is still
very much a reality. The reality however that disturbs me the most in all this interest rate
maneuvering is that for the first time in my many years following the money game, a U.S.
chairman of the Fed has moved not to deal with the U.S. economic situation by printing money
but the world economic situation by printing money. To my knowledge this is unprecedented.
The net result is a skyrocketing money supply that has all the old time market watchers blowing
a gasket. It is this money printing -- coupled with euro introduction -- that is so dangerous for the
dollar as I mentioned a few days ago. Anything can happen...Personally I think next week and the
following will be critical for the dollar. Now with all the moves made that are going to be made
going into the end of the year, the dollar to me looks incredibly vulnerable. We will see how
this all plays out, but this is not a time to kick back and get ready for the holidays. Anything can
happen.....Keep your ear to the rail. If things remain placid going into year end, 1999 might start
slow. If they don't, duck.....there's a train coming through the tunnel-- freight train euro...

Richard, Oregon (12/6/98; 20:54:30MDT - Msg ID:1193)
Sunday Paper - Euro
I just read our Sunday paper article on the Euro (creating Euroland) and how it will effect
pacific NW businesses. Mostly an uneventful piece but one thing jumped at me when I read it
because of a similar post here regarding US banks tracking deposits/withdrawls of customers.

The following is by John McAdam president and CEO of Sequent Computer: "Companies out
there are going to be buying new software systems and often hardware, too, McAdam said.
Banks, for example, have us
Peter Asher
Euro Anthology, the rest of the kilo-bytes
used the euro as a catalyst to install systems that track spending habits
and credit-card usage of individual customers across Europe".

You didn't think big brother was only in America did you!!

ET (12/6/98; 21:25:15MDT - Msg ID:1196)
Uncertainty
It seems to me that the reason people are stocking up is uncertainty. What we've always
regarded as 'normal' now seems abnormal. The Euro, y2k, stocks, the economy are all reasons
that have created this uncertainty. But overall, I believe people are detecting the end of an era;
the era of unsound money. It is at the root of everything we see around us. The euro would not be
created if the dollar were sound. Y2k has bought out in the open the faults of not considering the
long term picture. If money were sound, such judgments would be thought out much more
thoroughly, not wanting to risk capital on short term 'investments'. Stocks would never have
reached these levels. The economy would be based on producing real things.

It is the perception of some kind of change in 'money' that is driving this movement. I believe
many people know that the end is near but can't put their finger on it. But this is where
uncertainty will drive markets. If we knew the outcome of the Euro introduction and y2k, we
would certainly be looking at things differently. If we knew the outcome of the spreading
deflation ..., the equities bubble ...

Many events of worldwide importance are coming to a head. The uncertainty of the outcome is
what is driving the demand for hard assets.

History shows us the best money is made when things are changing rapidly. It looks to me that
things are about to change rapidly and with a magnitude very far removed from most people's
experience. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. My goal is to make the best of it.
THC
Oro - Thank You
This is the kind of stuff that I LOVE to find here at USAGOLD.

Thank you......

Will be back with my thoughts soon.

Cheers,
Leland
Dotcom Cash Turns to ash in a Flash

BY SAMANTHA MAGNUSSON
06may00

THE boys down at 131 Shop.com.au had a lavish season. They wined and dined with the best
of them in a box provided as part of their Brisbane Broncos sponsorship package.

The next season, however, is not looking so good.

Like many of Australia's fledgling high-technology companies it is burning cash at a rapid rate.

If the online directory company continues to spend at its current levels it will be out of pocket
by June.

During the March quarter, it spent $2.83 million leaving it with just $2.5 million in cash. Of that
money $1.5 million was spent on advertising while it received just $368,000 in receipts.

The company's share price has already slumped from a high of 90c to 11c yesterday. In its first
half to December, 131 Shop announced a $3.3 million operating loss.

The Australian has compiled the most comprehensive list summarising the cash flow
statements -- the first ever to be issued under Australian Stock Exchange requirements.

The table shows the 75 companies held just over $920 million in cash at the end of the March
quarter. However, with more than a third of that held by pay TV company Austar, the remaining
74 companies have little more than $542 million in the bank.

At the beginning of that quarter they held more than $657 million.

There are some success stories. A handful are cash-flow positive, a few can boast acceptable
revenues and there are some with solid business plans that will ensure their survival.

But many have stunned investors with the rate at which they are burning their cash. About 14 of
those that have been operating for more than three months have less than a year's spending
money left at their current spending levels.

Some of the most troubled stocks include online real estate company Realestate.com.au.

During the quarter it pulled in $417,000 in receipts and at its current revenue rate has just over
four quarters of cash left.

Another is POS Media, which puts video screens into shopping malls.

With receipts of just $71,000, its cash positioned halved during the period, falling from $8.4
million to $4.2 million. Aspiring Internet service provider eisa started the year with $35 million
but by the end of March this had dwindled to just $6.9 million. The company has until next
Thursday to raise about $180 million as it attempts to buy Internet company OzEmail.

But with the April 17 technology stock market crash souring investors' appetites towards such
stocks, finding new funds to carry these companies through is proving more difficult. Investors
are less willing to commit money and banks are also increasingly reluctant to provide further
funds to companies with poor cash flows.

As a result, expect a spate of takeovers, mergers and perhaps collapses in the industry. Those
that have run their balance sheets too low could well find themselves ripe picking for those left
with cash.

ith cash.

Others will need to reassess their business strategies to stop the money tap from being turned
off.

"If they are low on cash they will be doing everything to adjust their business," Gerard Eakin,
Ord Minnett technology analyst said.

While it may be the start of some tough times for companies, it is good news for investors.

"The shakeout has ended the capacity to take rubbish to the market ... and it will stop
investors getting hurt," an analyst said.

There will be much more scrutiny applied to business plans and this week's requirement by the
ASX for companies to provide cash-flow statements for the first time is a step to further
informing the market.

However, access to that information remains difficult for the vast majority of unprofessional
investors, many of whom were not informed of its release by the company or the ASX and
would have difficulty finding it anyway.

(Thanks to THE AUSTRALIAN, and Fair Use for Educational/
Research Purposes Only)
SHIFTY
Ponzi
Nasdaq 3,816.82 + Dow 10,577.86 = 14,394.68 divide by 2 = Ponzi 7,197.34
Up 130.98 Ponzi points
TownCrier
Sir ORO, please permit me to take a risk...
It is a risk that all men are familiar with who compliment their fair maidens on occasion, only to then be met with some such nonsense as "Well, if you are saying I am a gem today, what was wrong with me in the past??"

Of course, we all know the answer to that one.

Putting all that aside, allow me to say that your posts have really been a marvel lately, almost as though you turned an important corner in your thought about six weeks ago, I would say. To this observer, it is as though you uncovered a vital piece of information to bridge some tiniest gap in your perceptions and evaluations, leading to an onslaught of exceptional commentary outclassing your prior work. Can you recall some moment of clarity arriving in mid-March at which everything seemed to "fall into place" for you, or do you not share my perception on that account?

Bottom line: Thank you for sharing your time and analysis with us. We are certainly made the better for having it.
THC
Oro - Futures
Oro, good evening, and thank you for the very detailed response to my inquiry.

I agree fully that "there is more to the PM markets than the futures." But at the same time, there IS a futures market for the PMs! (smile).

I understand the importance of the "PM banking system" that you have described, and I can see how the lack of "metal in hand" could result in serious problems should the depositors ever ask for the metal. I accept the possibility that these deposit slips may in the end not allow one to take delivery of metal.

And, I accept that at some point in the future, other PM futures markets may follow in the footsteps of Tocom palladium -- metal not available for delivery. It is clear that Tocom Pt, and Nymex Pt and Pd are highly vulnerable.

However, as long as a futures market enables delivery of metal to those who request it, I find it goes against my common sense to accept that:

"There could be a large and ongoing discrepancy between spot prices and prices of futures contracts on the day of expiry."

The reason is that longs would take delivery and sell into the spot market, bringing the prices of the two markets together.

Naturally, should delivery no longer be allowed, this type of activity will cease, and the futures market will die out.

Are we in agreement?

A good day to all........

THC
Al Fulchino
Henri
Henri (05/05/00; 10:17:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29992)


Hey Al Fulchino
There is an ad at the bottom for the "Finding God in Physics" book you sent.

***********
Henri,
Long time no talk! Hope all is well. Yes I see the ad around from time to time. I believe Joseph Farah, the Editor of World Net Daily and the author, Roy Master's are friends. Anyway, hope the book was meaningful to you and others who have read it.

Best to you,

Al

TownCrier
Sir THC, on "spot" prices and gold futures...
This is an exercise you may enjoy.

Imagine that you are given nearly inexhaustible cash resources, but are not allowed access to physical gold either directly or indirectly.

Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to cap the cash price of gold. Could you do it? And more importantly for this exercise, HOW would you do it? (Remember: unlimited cash...no gold.)

This tape will self-destruct in five seconds...
TownCrier
One quick point...
Unlimited cash is certainly not necessary to acheive the end, but I figured that giving you ample ammo would assist the initial process of creative thinking to arrive at a solution...

Sir Henri, you might like to try your hand at this challenge also.
TownCrier
Here's a starting point...
COMEX gold futures

Contract _ Open Interest
=========================
May _ _ _ 0
Jun _ _ _ 89,734
Aug _ _ _ 16,713
Oct _ _ _ 4,029
Dec _ _ _ 19,991

NOTE: Delivery cannot be demanded on June contracts until the last day of May.
Delivery cannot be demanded on August contracts until the last day of July.
Delivery cannot be forced on October contracts until the last day of September.
And so on....

Another hint: Back in February, the April Open Interest numbers looked similar to what we now see for June, whereas the June OI numbers looked more like what we now see for August.
TownCrier
That was the longest five seconds I've ever seen!
;-)
lamprey_65
My Take on Today and Important Link
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.htmlCheck the link above...very handy for plotting gold in different currencies -- very illuminating too! Place gold in the "Target Currencies" section.

My take on today...cautiously optimistic on our May rally. Accumulation of major gold stocks continues.
lamprey_65
MarkeTalk
Appreciate your analysis. I agree - the CRB will be important to gold's rise - just as a falling CRB was an important reason for gold's fall over the past few years.
TownCrier
Picking up on two brief comments we made yesterday from The Tower
From <>:
<+
As we suggested days ago, don't look for forex intervention from the ECB, unless it is their only "politically correct" avenue to rid themselves delicately of unwanted foreign currency assets. To this Crier's eyes, when you have gold reserves being regularly marked to market in a "free gold" climate, there is simply no reason to maintain foreign currency assets beyond what is convenient for the purpose of short-term international settlements with those specific nations.>>

Additional note that I should have stated at the time of this original post: Evidence points to these days as the infancy of a "free gold" climate, with obvious incentives in place for the ECB (among others) to see it through. Gold will truly be set free to shine when it breaks the shackles of the derivatives markets and when the metal is also made immune to the effects of artificial supply inflation at the hands of the banking sector's lending operations. Such lending seemingly puts the "funds" into two hands at once (the owner of the original deposit who is earning interest on the deal, and the borrower). This "supply inflation" depresses the value of gold in the same fundamental manner as lending also inflates the dollar (or other currency) and erodes its value over time. Evidence of the turnaround and birth of "free gold", you ask? The Washington agreement, and the IMF gold revaluations.

<>

Additional note: as stated before, the UK auctions were surely in reaction to stress in the bullion banking business...an imminent run on the banks, in all likelihood, by the owners of the multiple pockets holding claim on the same gold (as described above). Why do I suggest the Swiss gold could be "sold" (allocated) in one fell swoop? Because all euroland gold "sales" within the Washinton Agreement are very likely a disguise for "lender of last resort" operations to mollify those many nervous "pockets" who are sharing the same small gold on account. Essentially, that entire quantity of gold is already "spoken for." Alternatively, this WA supply of gold out of euroland could also in part be seen as a regulating operation...similar to when the treasury buys back in its bonds prior to maturity.
+
It is perhaps like this, in either case. The reason the same small gold is in multiple pockets is because it has been put on deposit for interest, and lent out to borrowers for the purpose of earning interest. As in normal banking operations with cash, how many times can you imagine the same gold to be put on deposit by its new owner, only to be lent out again, and again? These gold loans are the assets of the bullion banks. Back to that in a moment.
+
Under current market forces, gold today is perceived to have a low value, near 300 in either euros or dollars. Let there be no doubt that gold is held by strong hands not for its "value" today, but for its value "tomorrow". I hope by now all of you have come up to speed on the Fed's operations to add reserves to the banking system through such things as repurchase agreements or coupon passes. Through repurchase agreements, the Fed provides a loan of funds to the underlings of the banking system against the collateral of these banks' assets. Through coupon passes, the Fed provides permanent funds through the outright purchase of these banks' assets (i.e., U.S. Treasuries.) But do not worry overmuch for the "poor Fed" who "sold" (allocated) its "precious funds" (i.e. dollars) to the banking system in exchange for these assets. As these assets (interest bearing loans, bonds, etc.) reach maturity, the Fed will thereby regain these "precious funds" that it originally parted company with, plus the "extra value" of interest. And why is the Fed adding these reserves? Partly because those with funds on deposit are pulling them out.

Must I now complete the parallel to the Fed's operations in terms of the Euroland gold allocations via the Washington Agreement? I hope it is already growing clear. Wouldn't you agree that it is rather fatuous to think that the euroland central banks would be so dull-witted as to part with gold in exchange for nothing more than the dollar-equivalent as the market currently perceives? Would you be more comfortable thinking that the central banks are getting in return for this gold...a simple cash payment, or ownership of the loan asset that will theoretically upon maturity repay the gold, plus interest? Again, strong hands hold gold not for today's value, but for tomorrow's value.

Please think back to the Dutch sales. Regardless of the market price at the time or the tonnage allocated through the Bank for International Settlements, the book value reported by the ECB's weekly balance sheet was always based upon the ECB's official gold valuation for that quarter. When you are holding an asset that is a gold-denominated loan, how else would you show it's value on your books?

Quick review: Current perceptions of gold's value is low. "Free gold" is in its infancy. Strong hands hold gold for "tomorrow". Can you now imagine the central banks who are supporting the tenets of "free gold" would keep themselves in a position for the return of their gold assets at some point "tomorrow"? As the many nervous "pockets" sharing the same small gold account sees it, the central banks will have much better luck dictating the eventual repayment of these gold loans in time than they would as "lowly bullion bank depositors" at the mercy of the bullion banks' future viability as "supply deflation" sets in from the eventual phaseout of gold lending. Time is on the Central Banks side, not to mention the ability to tap into national legislative power to apply heavy mineral taxes to gold mines. And ultimately, should a number of the gold loan assets now held by the CB's in place of their physical gold assets actuall fall into default, just imagine what an enhancement that is to the currency value of "free gold". Where these gold-denominated assets may be forced to settle in cash, you can imagine what a huge return will be realized at that time, compared to the rather meagre cash value they "appear" to be getting with their "sales" today. Truly, if all gold doesn't return, it would nonetheless be as though they sold at the top. And better still for the future of "free gold", this same gold would then remain in private hands.

And lastly, here is a brief look again a part from the earlier discussion of gold market pricing where futures are involved:
<>:
<*snap* it's all over.
Enough said.>>

Indeed. Enough said.
TownCrier
On that last post...
Do not for a minute assume that that is the way of it simply because I emptied the case all over the lawn.

I am only suggesting that perhaps this would be a fine "starting point" for some of your own musings on the nature of the evolving gold market. If you can see the markets for what they are, you will surely be better able to see them for what they will become.

Time to go. It is way past my beer time...
Goldsun
The Price of People
Gold has purchased people ranging from slaves to kings. But it will also purchase many other commodities.
The total value of the world's above ground gold is inherently equal to the total value of the world's goods and services. The latter likely more than doubled during the recent period in which the quantity of gold doubled.
However, I wholeheartedly herald Herr Holtzman's pursuit of the gold/humans ratio through the ages. If our host has a modest empty room in the castle it might usefully be employed as a repository for the fruits of this quest as they are gathered by Ritter Holtzman and other knights.
Goldsun
Simply Me
Town Crier's exercise.
Hi, Town Crier. I read and very much appreciate your news and your patient lessons.
Since the adroit students don't seem to be around. Maybe the student in the back of the classroom could take a crack at this one.

Goal: Drive down the price of physical gold.
Terms: Unlimited funds and no access to physical gold in any form.
Answer: Buy as many "puts" as possible in about the $240.00 to $270 range in the futures market, concentrating on June. Then after May 15th, begin rolling them over into August "puts". Completing the action before May 30th.

I just want to know if I'm on the right track to understanding this stuff. Logging on to this forum is like sitting in on a Nuclear Physics course without taking Physics 101.

simply me

Topaz
TownCrier (5/5/2000; 18:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 30019)

Sir TownCrier:
Well said and "ere-ere" re above Townie- and while the bouquets are being thrown about, I'd like to acknowledge your own 1st class contribution of late. (with a similar disclaimer)
Where in the world does one get such a wealth of world-class Fiscal Education? Nowhere I know of other than USAGOLD; (Kitco for grown-up's)
Keep it comin good Sir!!
Peter Asher
Leland (5/5/2000; 17:56:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 30017)
http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,36044,00.html?tw=wn20000503 >>> Dotcom Cash Turns to ash in a Flash <<<

At least they had some cash. Take a look at the total scam version at the above link.

Synopsis: Two companies are created and a lot of press releases are put out creating the image that Company #2 is buying out Company #1 but there is no cash no business, nothing; yet the stock of Co.#1 10X's.
Peter Asher
Getting on subject in the big world too


Does home schooling provide a better
education than public schools?


Yes

49% => 21573 votes

No

37% => 16392 votes

Don't know

13% => 5977 votes

Current Vote Tally: 43942 View Yesterday's Discussion.

Leland
Peter Asher, Your Msg. #30034
Opened a whole new subject...escalating online fraud. So,
I went to Alta Vista, typed in "online fraud"...there were
5,402 pages! I wonder, how many pages will there be after
the stock markets "blow up"???



Peter Asher
Test
Is the site down or are we tongue tied.
Peter Asher
(No Subject)
Hooh-boy, nothing! I'm going back to the Arcives and look for somthing to disagree with.
Peter Asher
Empty Forum
Nah, nothing to dissagree with' ever-one's brilliant.

I see this Item I found on Dec.6 '98

>>>It seems that "electronic transactions" must be denominated in Euros only after 2002.<<<<

I wonder if some countries are thinking "Let's cut our losses now before investing in all that data programing that would be wasted if the EURO doesn't survive."

Harley Davidson
Peter...
Wow things DO look slow today.

I just finished showing the bike to a prospective buyer. He gave me a deposit and we'll do the deal next week. Lots of mixed emotions today.
Leland
Bill Fleckenstein Sorta' Puts His Finger on Whas' Happn'
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm#tquotns"I can share a story from the waning days of the Tokyo bull market in 1989 that may
shed some light on the situation. As the fundamentals began to deteriorate in late 1989,
often I would call Japan and check in to see how my short position was doing (I was
short Tokyo throughout 1989). The news would be bad, and the situation would be
dire, and the market would be going up..." (Click for
more)
Hipplebeck
smart money
I just listened to the smart money radio program one PBS.
They were talking of the success of tech stocks as though they were in the past tense.
A lot about Soros, Buffett and Soro's co hedge fund guys quitting on the market and saying it's irrational.
This sounds to me like a complete compitulation that the boom days are over.
I don't know how many people like to listen to that show, but I know it is broadcast all over the U S,
I also saw that bank CDs are nearing 8%.
The wave has crested, and is now breaking,
If you have got yourself set up right you'll be surfing, if not you could get washed up in the whitewater, maybe even washed onto the rocks.
Own gold
Hipplebeck
central bank leasing
I have said this before, but it has been awhile.
When the central banks sell gold, they are merely making available the interest that they will recieve when gold leases come due. If central bank lease agreements really do demand interest in gold instead of cash (as I presume they do), then they are playing the smartest game in the world.
They will eventually own all the gold if they want.
Hipplebeck
central bank leasing
I have said this before, but it has been awhile.
When the central banks sell gold, they are merely making available the interest that they will recieve when gold leases come due. If central bank lease agreements really do demand interest in gold instead of cash (as I presume they do), then they are playing the smartest game in the world.
They will eventually own all the gold if they want.
Leland
Reading Oil & Gas Articles Today, Here's the Best One

OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE, HOUSTON�
US natural gas prices "definitely" will climb to $4/Mcf this fall, with
world oil prices escalating to $40/bbl probably within a year, unless
producers dramatically increase spending to offset depletion and to
supply growing demand, a University of Houston professor told
reporters at the Offshore Technology Conference Monday in
Houston.

But that's nothing compared with what will happen when the real
gas shortage hits North America within 2 or 3 years, says Michael J.
Economides, coauthor of "The Color of Oil," a book about the
economics of the oil and gas industry.

With rapid depletion of current gas resources and steady escalation
of demand, Economides said, freezing Chicago residents will be
paying a whopping $40/Mcf for gas in the middle of some
not-too-distant winter. "It's the biggest energy story not being
written about," he claimed.

Economides said US gas producers are not discovering enough
new gas reserves to offset rapid depletion of current reserves and
meet growing demand that is expected to hit 30 tcf by 2010. It's the
same scenario that Matthew Simmons, president of Simmons & Co.
International, Houston, has been arguing for years.

Moreover, Economides said many of the gas-fired power plants
now being planned won't be built in time to meet demand projections.
"You couldn't buy a turbine today if you wanted to. General Electric
has a 3-year backlog," he said.

Still, he predicted, "We'll see $4 gas before $40 oil."

Oil prices
Economides expects world oil prices to spike again next year,
however, because most OPEC members don't have the excess
capacity to meet their new production quotas. "Saudi Arabia maybe
has 1 million b/d of excess capacity. But the rest of them don't.
Venezuela, [the US's] biggest supplier, is working hard to meet its
present production quota," Economides said.

His supporters point out that he correctly predicted the last price
peak of $30/bbl back when oil was still selling for $11/bbl.

At his OTC press conference, Economides rejected what he calls
the "myth" of low lifting costs in Saudi Arabia and other major Middle
East countries. Nor can big producers turn oil production on and off
at will, he says. Any significant ramp-up in world oil production will
take huge capital investment, said Economides.

Based on his "Production Activation Index" of the investment
required to add one new barrel of daily oil production, Economides
said such additions would cost Saudi Arabia and Venezuela's
western oil-producing provinces some $3,500/bbl. Even allowing for
the potentially huge reserves a new discovery could add in those
countries, Economides said both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela would
lose money on any oil market price less than $21/bbl�the same
clearance level required for West Texas Intermediate crude.

"The Kuwait oil minister estimated that a $7 billion investment would
be required to bring an additional 350,000 b/d production in North
Kuwait, implying an activation index of $20,000/bbl. Iraq has
announced that it seeks $30 billion for an incremental production of
4 million b/d, resulting in an activation index of $7,500/bbl," he said.

To turn a profit on that production, Iraq would need a market price of
$76/bbl, while Kuwait's equilibrium oil price is an eye-popping
$201/bbl, he figures. In contrast, Economides said, the mature
shallow-water region of the Gulf of Mexico has one of the lowest
activation indexes in the world�$1,000/bbl, about the same as
West Africa. That translates into an equilibrium oil price of $4/bbl for
the gulf and $6/bbl for West Africa.

Economides acknowledged that his Production Activation Index
calculations are simplistic. Actual results will involve other factors,
including shifts in market shares, the move to greater gas
consumption, and the "seemingly-always underestimated positive
effects of investing in technology," he said.

Nonetheless, said Economides, an average oil price of more than
$25/bbl for the next 2-3 years "is not unrealistic."

(From O&G JOURNAL ONLINE, and Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only.)
YGM
Feel Lucky?.......Prospect Oz........
Nice Watch Fob.........Friday May 5 11:11 AM ET

Australia Lets Prospector Keep Gold



PERTH, Australia (AP) - A state supreme court ruled Friday that a taxi driver and amateur prospector could keep the 141/2-pound gold nugget he had unearthed on someone else's land.

George Dimitrovski found the nugget, valued at $590,000, five years ago while prospecting near Marble Bar, 750 miles north of the West Australia state capital of Perth.

Landowner Frank Welsh complained to police that Dimitrovski had been prospecting illegally on his property. Welsh became aware of the find after Dimitrovski took the nugget into a local bar to boast.

Dimitrovski, 52, was charged with unlawful possession, and the gold was confiscated and stored in a vault in Perth's mint.

After a series of court hearings, West Australian Supreme Court Judge Graeme Scott upheld a lower court decision throwing out the prosecution's case.

Dimitrovski said Friday he would not sell the nugget.

``I want to put it on display at the Sydney Olympics and try to get some sort of cover charge on it and give it toward a charity,'' he said.
Gandalf the White
YGM -- Question !
is that 14.5 Pounds ? aka = 174 oz.
<;-)
Henri
Harley Davidson Question for a slow day
Why the H*ll do asparagas have to have such long d*mn roots!
You'd think there was something way down there to go after that they can't find up above.
YGM
Gandalf....
14.5 lb Nugget.....I'm not sure of troy oz p/lb......but 14.5 lbs yessss! What about the one in, I believe Australia, where the farmer high centered his tractor on a boulder in a muddy field.....It was in the tonnes......????
Regards...YGM.
Harley Davidson
Sir Henri..re: esparagus roots on a slow day!
Not exactly HOF material but here we go. I'm gonna take a wild guess here. Actually, I think your on to something with "something down there to go after"...water. My understanding (which could be way off - I thought I was wrong once before but I was "mistaken" (smile)) is asparagus grows best in sandy soil (New Jersey?). If that's the case, then the water would drain easily and the the roots would have to go deep to get it. Just a hunch.
Peter Asher
Gandalf, YGM
14.5 lbs. X 16 = 232 oz. X $278 =$64,496.

Even if you take Troy including Helen you don't get a value of $590,000. Although --- What is the value of a "Face that launched a thousand ships"?
HI - HAT
Fundamental Time
The exchange rate of the Euro was by calculation set to high to begin with. All world economic and trade computer models work off of dollar ratios. As such the Euro creators know that the NEW must transverse the road of introduction,acceptance,familiarity,true world fundamental value price discovery.

For whatever reasons the Euro is trading in this lower band it is succeeding in getting the worlds attention and thereby forcing a deeper analysis in the process of finding a price value discovery perception. It must go through a run from pillar to post in order to equalize out in its future range.

The Euro since it is NEW must have time to be firmly "Fixed" in the world consceisnous. The point I am making here is like the old publicity ditty, "print anything you want, but make sure you spell my name right".

As FOA says, we have a 007 going on here.
TownCrier
Sir Simply Me, thank you for pursuing this line of thought
Goal: Drive down the price of physical gold.
Terms of operation: Unlimited funds and no access to physical gold in any form.

Your answer: Buy as many "puts" as possible in about the $240.00 to $270 range in the futures market, concentrating on June. Then after May 15th, begin rolling them over into August "puts". Completing the action before May 30th.

"I just want to know if I'm on the right track to understanding this stuff. Logging on to this forum is like sitting in on a Nuclear Physics course without taking Physics 101"
---------------------------------
While it is true that economics can seem quite obscure on the surface, it is actually quite accessible. The only coursework prerequisite for this "class" is life itself. If you are conscious, you can surely attend, and if you have time for thought, you will surely thrive.

Are you on the right track, you ask? Let's let you decide. Please do some "thinking out loud" (post on the forum) on the cause-and-effect of your proposed action to drive down the price of gold. Meaning, why did you choose to buy these put options, and what do you anticipate would become of them? Would you expect them to expire worthless, or would you be in a position to exercise them? What actions do you anticipate this activity would inspire among others in the market? Thanks in advance. We can kick this around as much as you'd like. You don't have to present a Master's Thesis all at once. That would take the fun out of it all, wouldn't it?
TownCrier
Some fun on a slow day... Can you say, "Inspiration"?
http://www.three-kings.com/For those of you who wondered, it is more about gold than you ever had imagined. You will never see the top of the forum in quite the same way again.
Leland
I Flunked...See if You Can Guess Without Reading the Answer
Guess Which Country This is

* 709,000 regular (active duty) service personnel;
* 293,000 reserve troops;
* Eight standing army divisions;
* 20 air force and navy air wings with 2,000 combat aircraft;
* 232 strategic bombers;
* 13 strategic ballistic missile submarines with 3,114 nuclear warheads
on
232 missiles;
* 500 ICBMs with 1,950 warheads;
* Four aircraft carriers, and;
* 121 surface combat ships and submarines, plus all the support bases,
shipyards and logistical assets needed to sustain such a naval force.

Is this country:

Russia? . . . No
Red China ? . . . No
Great Britain ? . . . Wrong Again
USA? . . . Hardly










Give Up? Well, don't feel too bad if you are unable to identify this
global
superpower because this country no longer exists. It has vanished.

These are the American military forces that have disappeared since the
1992
election.

Sleep well, America.

Gold Trail Update
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Henri
Town Crier Post 30023
I'm Thinkin'...I'm Thinkin'
Thanks for the invite. I'll respond when I ponder it out
SHIFTY
Leland
That is a frightening statistic.
SHIFTY
Neil Young- Silver & Gold
Neil Young has a new album out titled SILVER & GOLD !
Some of his past work was " Hart of gold" and " After the gold rush." He will be the musical guest on Saterday Night Live tonight.
SHIFTY
Off to the gold trail ! ! !
See ya
USAGOLD
Asian Nations Back Currency Plan
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/000506/asian_bank_4.htmlAP Report (5/6/00)

"Thirteen Asian nations agreed Saturday to help defend each other's
currencies in the event of an economic crisis like the one that devastated the region in 1997-1998.

Economic powers Japan, China and South Korea decided to take a role in the fledgling currency protection
scheme adopted two months ago by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, part of a wider goal of creating a more united Asia on the world economic stage.

Finance ministers from those countries met on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank, a Philippines-based institution
some Asian officials would like to see become a lender of last resort to troubled nations."

From same article:

"Malaysia, which has long urged fellow Asian nations to rely on each other for help, rather than on the West, refused the IMF's treatment and suffered less in the crisis than others."

Also:

"We firmly believe that it will not end here. This is a beginning. It can evolve into something bigger,'' said Mustapa Mohamed, deputy finance
minister of Malaysia."



Cavan Man
USAGOLD
The future can be seen in the present.
Cavan Man
Hello Trail Guide
Two questions please:

1.) Will you tell us of your favorite gold stocks?

2.) Have you been in the very general vicinity of Aiken, SC recently. I'm trying to confirm a sighting :).
JavaMan
RE: Harley Davidson
As is customary with the passing of all things dear, I would like to ask for a moment of silence.

(Insert moment of silence here)

This week I ran an add in the newspaper to sell my Harley and today someone came to look at it. So impressed was he, that he gave me a substantial cash deposit on the spot, and asked if we could conclude the deal on Monday. And so ends an aspect of my life that goes back to 1966.

If you ask someone what the mystique is about a Harley Davidson, they would say "if I have to explain it, you wouldn't understand." I talked to a factory representative once and he said "its not a motorcycle, it's a way of life."

Oh well, my son goes off to college in September and I have to take care of business. Not that the bike will cover all of that but it's a start. The HD sure is expensive and they hold their resale value like no other transportation I know of.

So, to transition into my new life, sans HD, I feel it inappropriate to continue at the round table as "Harley Davidson" as that era has come to an end, and because of the seemingly unlimited technical prowess of our Town Crier, I am now able to post with my new handle, "JavaMan"!

Oh yeah, I never bought all that crap about "its not a motorcycle, it's a way of life." It is a unique piece of engineering though. 88 cubic inches (more displacement than the early Volkswagens) of throbbing, tree stump pulling torque, thunder, and chrome. It is art in motion...poetry on wheels...and the experience of taking one down the road is not for the faint of heart, but that "way of life" stuff is pure, unadulterated, well...maybe they have something there...nah!
TownCrier
Welcoming the new pedestrian...
Glad to see that all is in working order for you, Old HD.
Simply Me
To Town Crier and Trail Guide
To Town Crier,
I love puzzles. Thank you for the challenge! I must work on the answer 'till tomorrow, though. I've had one too many Mai Tai's this afternoon. I couldn't get myself out of a Chinese finger puzzle right now!
The rest of my post are thoughts from yesterday.
Will respond as soon as I'm able.

To Trail Guide, and all,
An idea I've been working on seems to mesh well with the thoughts you've expressed today on the 'Gold Trail'. (The salmon was heavenly!) In trying to gain some perspective on the western mindset, I think it is meaningful that as the US stock market has boomed this past twenty years...the casino business has also spread all over the US landscape. The following is a post I was working on earlier today, before I started working on a hangover. (With all the sugar in the mixer, it should be a doosie!)
I would be interested in everyone's thoughts about the similarities/differences in gambling vs. investing, and why market philosophy is starting to look so obviously like casino psychology.

It's a very slow Saturday. Everyone seems to be holding their breath, trying to feel which way the wind will blow next.

Watching the stock market all this year has been very much like sitting in a casino. Strategically placed machines are looser than others. So that those machines are making the "sounds of winning" all over the casino. Even though they're spitting out only small jackpots with any regularity, the sight and sounds of winning are driving everyone sitting at the tight machines to keep pumping those tokens in with the hopes that the next spin will be the jackpot. And they keep moving around looking for a loose machine.
Ah, but the poor shmoe sitting at the loose machine is the REAL loser! Because after a couple of adreneline pounding jackpots, he's hooked! He'll keep pumping those tokens in the slot till he's broke, trying to hit it again. After all, it's his lucky day!
Next time you're in a Casino, get a drink and go stand on a stairway with a good view of the slot machines. Stay there till the drink is gone. (I suggest the drink because everything else about the place is designed to draw you into the crowd.) Watch the people at the machines.
Yep, they'll keep buying tech/communications/biotech stocks on the dips all the way down to the bottom. They have to. This long bull market has hooked a lot of people who don't know any other way. They're looking at the blackjack (commodities) table, but they don't know how to play that game and they know they're likely to loose their butts learning, so they keep loosing at the easy game they know.
This is surely not the case with the OLD professional gamblers, Soros et. al. They've been playing at the poker table (not the slots) all along.
But the poor schmoe with the least to loose is at the slot machine, with every machine rigged to make the sound of winning without actually paying out.

Where does gold fit in all this? It's the money that purchases the slot machine tokens and poker chips.
Right now the casino is offering $2 in chips for $1 in gold. The irresistable chance to double your money, double your chances to win big! How can they do that. Easy,
they make the chips...they can make as many as they want. And they know once you have the chips in your hands, you're going to gamble them. They get your dollar in gold and they will eventually get their chips back, too.

The only way to win is to keep your dollar's worth of gold.
simply me
Cavan Man
The Euro and "Leadership"
What do the two subjects, one a currency, one a quality have in common?

I have reached the conclusion (and I'll not be swayed even by the great intellects that inhabit this cyberspace)that people in our times, today, do not want leadership of any sort. In my view, people want bureaucracy; they want "management", not leadership. Leadership requires thinking "outside the box", it requires daring, it requires risk, it requires a strong spirit. Leadership can be very hard work and tricky business. I have observed this human emotive tendency that seeks maintenance of the status quo in every aspect of our lives over the course of some years.

BTW, you might ask, how do you define leadership? If I might borrow from and excellent tome on the subject, "On Becoming a Leader", by Warren Bennis, I define it thusly; "Leadership is a lot like beauty. I know it when I see it." This short book by Bennis is one of the most inspiring I have ever read.

The Euro might have been concepted out of necessity but its birth in my view is an expression not only of "political will" but of a daring act of leadership to conceivably take a large part of the world's citizenry to a higher economic level. These Euromeisters should be congratulated and respected for their audacity in challenging the post-'47 monetary order. Furthermore, their resistance to intervene in FOREX markets and bow to journalistic sentiment is another feather in their caps.

Good luck to you Euro. May the best currency(ies) win!
That's the "American Spirit". That's the "American Way".

Good evening.....CM
Cavan Man
HD
Welcome J Man!
Leland
After What Happened This Week...I'm Building a Linux Computer
And, what reeeleee bugs me.....
Sat May 6 22:50:38 EDT 2000
Microsoft Stock Price:
$71.125
Bill Gates's Wealth:
$80.320000 billion
U.S. Population:
274,747,123
Your Personal Contribution:
$292.342


"If you want to know what God thinks about money, just look at the people He gives it
to."
-- Old Irish Saying
pdeep
Euro "Weakness"
I think Oro had something to say about this a while back, but I'll air my confusion again.

In the WSJ today, there's an article quoting a few economist-pundits bemoaning the weakness of the Euro, and one suggesting supply-side solutions to the "Euro Crisis." However, isn't it true that Europe probably holds a few hundred billion dollars in dollar currency reserves? Europe has run a current account surplus with the US for a decade or so. If the ECB decided to bolster the Euro, couldn't they just start selling the dollar reserves and buy Euros? It probably woudn't take much to burn Euro shorts, and they have plenty of ammo.

Since they are not, is it safe to say that the Euro "weakness" is not something that the ECB wants to fix via forex interventions?
TownCrier
Sir Cavan Man (msg#: 30067) ... nice post on leadership
You said:
"The Euro might have been concepted out of necessity but its birth in my view is an expression not only of "political will" but of a daring act of leadership to conceivably take a large part of the world's citizenry to a higher economic level. These Euromeisters should be congratulated and respected for their audacity in challenging the post-'47 monetary order. Furthermore, their resistance to intervene in FOREX markets and bow to journalistic sentiment is another feather in their caps."

I also liked your comment on the "daring" which is required when choosing to live in a manner where you are NOT being led around by the hand. As such, we can all either sit back and wait for things to unfold, whereby we would be essentially be hand-led by the events of the day; or better, we can actively look for evidence and read the signs (as we may) while we pursue a more thoughtful and sovereign existence.

In light of your comments, I truly hope you have found (or will soon find) a moment to read this post from yesterday:
-----------------------------
TownCrier (5/5/2000; 21:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30028)
-----------------------------

It touches on many items that would not be conducted on the front page of the newspapers, yet the leadership is there nonetheless, should we all choose to follow the signs or not.

To build just a bit more on my post, and to fold in the important element of your post, it strikes me as significant that these 11 independent nations took the trouble to form a NEW currency even as they were surrendering their individual national perks of currency manufacturing. In a very rough sense, when you are planning your national budget in Helsinki or Madrid, you might just as well well turn to the Fed in the U.S. as to the ECB in Frankfurt, no? If they are giving up their own ability to print money, why all the trouble to form a new currency unit instead of just joining the dollar and the currency union of 50 states plus assorted banana republics that use the dollar? The reasonable answer is that the intended objective is a fundamentally new monetary architecture not available through the current dollar system.

Your quote could very well be right on the money. Again, please have a look at yesterday's post if you haven't already. The best kind of leadership generally operates from plans that are credible. (You be the judge of the credibilty of what I have mapped out in that post.) The tough part for leadership is finding the resolve to do the "right" thing during calm times when so many have become accustomed to the "easy" thing.
Gold Trail Update
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
JavaMan
Simply Me, psychology 101...
You said "I would be interested in everyone's thoughts about the similarities/differences in gambling vs. investing, and why market philosophy is starting to look so obviously like casino psychology."

You're well on your way to identifying, in part, what is going on in the markets today. The key, as it relates to your observation above, is in what is known as behavioral psychology. B.F. Skinner, the well know psychologist of the �70s became famous for his work in behavioral modification. He discovered some interesting characteristics common to most, if not all, living creatures. One of his experiments that ultimately had far reaching implications was a follows: Put a white rat in a cage with a container hanging on the side of the cage that dispensed a sugar pellet when a lever was depressed. In no time at all, the rat learned that, by depressing the lever, he was rewarded by a sugar pellet.

Now comes the "revolutionary" part. The container is controlled by a switch that the experimenter operates so they can override the dispensing of the sugar pellet when the rat presses the lever. In other words, sometimes the rat presses the lever, and he gets the reward of the pellet and sometimes he presses the lever and no reward is forth coming.

So what is so revolutionary about this you might well ask. Simple. The real discovery was the observation that when the experimenter "turned off" the container so it would no longer dispense more pellets, the rat would press on the lever some number of times before walking away, never pressing the lever again. This was called "extinguishing" a behavior. But then, with another rat, the experimenter manipulated the container in a random fashion so sometimes the rat was rewarded for pressing the lever and sometimes he wasn't. Then, in conclusion, the experimenter turned off the container so no pellets were dispensed when the rat pressed the lever. And guess what happened. The rat would continue to press the lever far beyond the number of times of the other rat.

B.F. Skinner discovered that reinforcement of a behavior "randomly" was a much more powerful form of behavioral conditioning and, consequently, much more difficult to extinguish. So we come full circle to gambling which is random reinforcement at its finest and I give you the stock market which, today, is gambling at its finest.

This gives a whole new insight into the "buy on the dip" mentality. Based on the information above, I wouldn't be surprised to see people buying into this market all the way to the bottom...looking, hoping, knowing, there is another sugar pellet on the next press of the lever.
Black Blade
Harley......Uh, I mean Java
Sold your Harley? Bummer. I know the feeling, but my last Harley was a Wide Glide. Still have my 69 Charger, 76 CJ-7, and 92 F-150 4X4. Now, my the handle Javaman? This to do with a lot of coffee drinking or a little evolutionary phase that your going through?
Black Blade
Correction
Should read Why the handle....? Whew, good beer tonight! New key board too!
Black Blade
US Reserve Assets Decrease $930 million.
Source: Wall Street JournalThe following from WSJ May 3rd, page C9.

US official reserve assets fell $930 million last week to $66.83 billion after a revised $379 million the previous week, The Treasury Department said.

US reserve assets consist of foreign currencies, gold, special drawing rights at the International Montetary Fund and the US reserve position - its ability to draw foreign currencies - at the IMF.

The nation's holdings of foreign currencies dropped $483 million last week to $30.27 billion, while it's gold reserves were unchanged at $11.05 billion. US holdings of IMF special drawing rights fell $178 million to $10.12 billion, and its reserve position at the IMF fell $270 million to $15.39 billion.

ET
Peter, Leland, HD
Hey Peter - I saw you posted some of my old stuff. It's strange reading one's old quotes. I can't say I'm anymore certain about the future than I was a year ago. The stock markets seem much weaker than a year ago and the charts look very weak for paper yet strong for hard assets. Even copper is finally moving to the upside. Stranger has it right in most respects.

Hey Leland - I made the switch to Linux last year and can proudly say I use no Microsoft products. At this point however I wish I did as it is distressing to see what the US government is doing to the company. Mr. overherd and I have been keeping in touch as he has also made the switch. Linux is an outstanding system and is getting better by the day. The real problem facing Microsoft is the fact that most of the software that they rely on for profit is becoming free under the Linux operating system. No matter how you look at it, free is the better deal.

Hey Harley Davidson - sorry to hear of your loss. I suffered a similar loss recently when I lost oil pressure in my Corvette and cooked my roller-cam small block. Life can be cruel. I will rebuild however and possibly be looking to trade for one of those 2-wheeler's.

ET
JavaMan
Sir Black Blade,
Yes, the brewskies are flowing here too. Just sold my '99 Dyna Wide Glide. Aztec Orange. Beautiful. Ughh. Massive mid-life crisis.

Only drink coffee on weekends, otherwise I would drink to much and would never get to sleep. I work at a software development company doing work in the Java programming language.

Sir Leland...don't get me started on Microsoft. I consider myself to be an "average" programmer yet someone of comparable skill, if so inclined, could wipe out just about every Windows PC connected to a network that is connected to the Internet. Period. I'm just waiting for some nut-case Iraqi, Libyan, or Communist Chinese to go for it. Of course, I suspect it would/could be construed as a declaration of war against the US, but that wouldn't mean to much to the individual at work who has to get something done ASAP and they are staring at the notorious Windows blue screen of death.


Trail Guide
comment
THC (5/5/2000; 5:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29970)

Hello THC,

I'll add my 2 cents to your discussion.

You say:
---- I believe that FOA has spoken from time to time of "paper being sold into the ground" while "physical gold sells at much higher prices away from the futures markets." I would content that as long as futures markets are connected to physical markets through the physical delivery rules, this would seem to be highly implausible. -----

The obvious weak part here is in your
" " through the physical delivery rules" " !

These rules are open to change. If enough traders or commercials default, no one is going to supply physical for them. The "rules" convert to "trade for liquidation only". That is usually a trade of "paper to paper". In other words "cash settlement". If you were short you lost a bunch. If you were long, you get cash and go try to buy your own metal.

The problem is that in this atmosphere any amount of metal trading will be spiking straight up with each bulk cash settlement.

The reason this perspective is important is that the "paper makers" know just how this will impact the paper markets. In reality, no one that has real capital will buy into a paper marketplace headed for any form of liquidation. So it becomes even easier for them to send prices lower. Even a hint of settlement is enough. If anything at all, during this process the arbitrage is just the opposite from
normal. Traders help the discounting process along by dumping contracts that are even in obvious discount to physical and running to buy "dealer physical" supply at higher prices.

Contracts are contracts my friend. Nothing more until settled. In a real crisis, cool arbitrage players get run down by the train as they find their own physical that was set to trade becomes "suddenly not there"! As the gold markets grind to default, the paper selling by people with nothing more than good credit will greatly intensify.

Trail Guide


JavaMan
ET
Oil is to an engine as blood is to a human. Neither does well for long without it.

I used to have a '71 LT1 350/330 hp in the mid '70s. Fastest car I ever experienced. Didn't realize what I had at the time and ended up selling it for about $4500.
Trail Guide
Comment
Cavan Man (05/06/00; 20:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 30063)
Hello Trail Guide
Two questions please:
1.) Will you tell us of your favorite gold stocks?
--------------
I once said one and will hold back from mentioning it (or others) again. The Western view says that if I have $100,000 to put into hard assets, I'll buy ten ounces and place the rest in gold stocks. I doubt most people could hold that ratio through what is most likely coming.

It's the same as using the grocery money to buy Coca Cola stock as a substitute for a bottle of coke. All the same arguments apply: the company could pay me dividends in coke,,,,, there reserves of coke in storage are huge,,,,,,,, more leverage than the real thing,,,,,,etc.,,,,, etc.,,,,!
Then the stock goes down in a general crisis even as the price of a cold coke goes up from inflation and everyone can't figure it out?? In the end you open the frig door and don't see what you really need........ that cold bottle of coke (smile).


2.) Have you been in the very general vicinity of Aiken, SC recently. I'm trying to confirm a sighting:).

Have you been celebrating that mexican holiday??? (smile)

Trail Guide


Trail Guide
Note
TownCrier (5/5/2000; 21:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30028)
-----------------------------
If they are giving up their own ability to print money, why all the trouble to form a new currency unit instead of just joining the dollar and the currency union of 50 states plus assorted banana republics that use the dollar? The reasonable answer is that the intended objective is a
fundamentally new monetary architecture not available through the current dollar system.------

Hello TownCrier,

You hit the nail right on the head! The whole purpose behind all of this was to get away from the dollar, not imitate it. All the hard money people that pounded the table about the dirty float (80s decade) in dollar exchange rates now want the ECB to intervene. No sooner do we have a currency system that let's the market rule it and everyone says "Oh no! We need to do something".

I can tell you why they want something done and it's not the saving of the Euro they are interested in. They (the dollar faction) want the Euro up because it is gutting the dollar infrastructure at these rates. Just let it set around .90 for the rest of the year and the dollar will be toast. The ECB won't spend it's dollar reserves buying Euros because the Euros they would take in won't be the international float like our dollars (eurodollars?? damn confusing to use that term now a days) overseas. It would be the domestic zone supply. We forget that they are running a trade surplus
that is building local assets denominated in Euros not dollars. Not adding to the mountain of dollar liabilities like the US trade deficit is. If the carry trade wants to create Euros against their own equity just to buy dollar assets, let them. It's not hurting the international Euro float because all of it is being sucked back into their (Euro) economy. The carry group thinks this is the same act as Japan, but it's not. The Yen is being destroyed as they compress and rates are held at 0%. Yen demand for business is dead. Contrast this against Euro demand and economic growth and we can see a massive trap for Euro shorts in the making.

I think this is all coming to a head now and gold is going to be in the middle of it. Before this is over, the ECB is going to begin unloading dollars for gold through the BIS offices. This may be happening now as gold moves from our shores. Then they use gold to buy excess Euros from the
ECMBs. That same gold could be used to lend Euros again because it's marked free value reserve asset. No different than the IMF play. Beautiful!

Trail Guide


View Yesterday's Discussion.

ORO
Town Crier - 2 turning points of sorts +1
In March I finished an analysis of the BIS data on external debt put in terms of currency demand and currency supply.

Working out the mechanics of it was very much an eye opening experience. I followed a line of thinking which I have been arguing for quite a while in a detailed mechanical way, and was astounded by the results. How these debt positions dictate strength and weakness of economies and currencies, and how the relative debt positions in currencies determine the flow of imports and exports and distort prices. Particularly surprising was how right Davidson and Reese Mogg were about the dollar debt squeeze.

The second item, of which I am not quite certain yet, is "The Derivative" in the currency markets that connects all the currencies to gold and to each other via interest rates. The determining factor being interest rates. I have yet to work out all the mechanics, however, the first few tries at the data indicate that there is a defacto relationship that dictates a gold price according to interest rates that a central bank can maintain. The lower the interest rate the CB of a major state can charge without destabilizing its currency and economy, the lower the price of gold EVERYWHERE.

The question I asked myself was what if Greenspan had his way, and the US did issue particular bonds to central banks at a fixed conversion to gold at maturity, and at a fixed interest rate ? What if he, the obscure economist, was selected to head the Fed, because it was his concept that was being used to keep the currency markets from cracking after the 1985 currency crissis that eventually cracked Wall Street in 1987 ? What if he was maneuvering to maintain equal interest rates on both types of bonds? What if the fixing was done at the IMF through the SDR, and it was the SDR that was fixed?

Then, after some attempts to see in the interest data what is happening, I came to the conclusion that it is likely that there was such a derivative. The question was then shifted to what the fixed values were. For kicks, I started by plugging in the values from the Phillipine gold contracts, $280 floor, $442 at maturity, 9% interest. It worked for many periods of 3-5 years since 1983, though it was way off at some periods. So this gave some credibility to the Phillipine gold story in my eyes.

Then I thought of the nature of a modern currency as "that which the borrower must return". What made for a national (or regional) currency being different from one nation to the other was the location of the borrower and the government controlling the central bank. Borrowers are different in different regions, but it is their action of seeking currency units that provides value to these units (something I was arguing with Aristotle a wee bit before). If the borrower gave up (bankruptcy) seeking the currency (deflation), its value would fall. If the borrower had no problem obtaining currency (inflation), its value would fall. If some borrowers HAD TO reurn loand and some borrowers were not under such pressure, the Have To borrower would have more pressure to sell more goods/services for the same currency units. If the Have To borrower were outside the currency zone (nation or region), then a discrepancy in currency buying power would be expected between the two areas. If interest rates for a currency were higher outside the currency zone than within - say because the borrowers within could borrow from the central bank, but the borrowers outside could not - then the purchasing power discrepancy would be even greater. This is "old hat" so I'll leave it at that.

Going back to the nature of currency, we have, in essence, a single currency with local colors that vary according to the nature of the local borrowers, the local legal terms regarding debt obligations, and local central bank policy. Economic activity and tax, as well as other issues are not touched on yet, and we already have a common denominator and a difference between currencies. Under a gold standard, the different zones would only be distinguished by the interest rate charged there. The rate would be determined by the following for each region:
1. Upper limit, the borrower's perceived or actual return on borrowed funds.
2. Bottom limit, 2.1. the lender's estimates of credit worthiness - the risk of funds not being returned, 2.2. the lender's perceived or actual opportunity cost from not using the funds immediately, or conversely, of not having an income.
3. Actual value of the interest rate - the "market clearing" rate - allows the borrower his return, and the lender is provided his income at the appropriate risk to funds.

Under duress (the shortage of gold caused by over extension in banking), the borrower will pay any rate in order to avoid immediate bankruptcy, while the lender will perceive high risk, thus rates would rise initially. After the squeezed borrowers are bankrupt, the lenders still need to turn their remaining savings into income, however, and will lend again soon after the crissis is over; which is when the distressed borrowers are taken out of the markets.

This simple theoretical description provides the background to the next leap. Having come to the conclusion of there being a gold derivative at the center of the currency and debt markets, the question then becomes what is the status of currencies then?

Often, people speak of the backing of a currency being the assets in the country of issue. When a government bond is issued, the country of issue has its tax base to support the payments of the bond, and a central bank that can issue further currency by taking government bonds off the markets. Indeed, this is the Anglo - American concept of central banking as that symbiotic relationship of banks and government that makes it possible for government to float a currency. Banks need a way to sell their wares at maximum capacity (in essence, banks sell other peoples debts). The reason a bank debt currency carries a value at all, and does not go directly to 0 is that each unit was borrowed into existence and has a demand by the borrower to return the currency created by his loan. Banks want to eliminate the competition for their product - namely any form of cash. Cash would be a physical commodity money or a government (or private)issued paper that has no debt associated with it.

Governments have attempted many times to create paper cash. They had failed miserably even when death penalties were given to those refusing use of the government paper. Failure came from the obvious reason that there was no natural demand for the government's cash currency.

Beginning with the Bank of Venice and culminating in the old BOE, which later evolved into the BOE's gold standard of the British Empire, banks and governments formed a partnership in which the government gets to issue currency through the issue of debt, and banks get the competition from cash eliminated from the market. The government does not get the full benefit of segniorage from this endeavor, but the currency created out of its debts is inseparable and indistinguishable from the currency created out of the honest debt of individuals and corporations. Thus, the government's currency wins the demand from other borrowers seeking to return the currency they borrowed.

This is the core of the Anglo banking model and has served both bankers and government well over the years, though it has paupered billions and made everyone a serf of sorts since no money is independent from the will of others to seek currency to return to the lender.

The BIG GAPING HOLE in this system is that there is no such thing as cash. Furthermore, the system is highly deflationary, since future demand for money is allways greater than current supply, and new supply can only be created by new debt. In the event of a debt liquidation due to an economic problem, the currency will implode in cycles of hyper inflation and severe deflation. Even with the best run central bank, the best that can be had is a delay in the date of destruction.

Now comes the point of this discussion: In order to keep the global economy functioning past the nose dive of the dollar in the 70s, it was necessary to reestablish a gold standard. However, a gold standard makes all currencies equal - a definite no-no for the Paper Empire of America. Furthermore, it would have reestablished a cash gold monetary system - the nightmare of government and banking alike. What was necessary was a credible Gold DEBT standard - FOA's "paper gold". That system would work by allowing the interested party to exchange dollars into a gold bond that converts into gold at maturity.

Each country can issue such a bond and the credibility of that bond would dictate interest rates, just as the true economic performance within a country would reflect in the local debt and currency creation rates and the interest rates necessary to maintain stable purchasing power without destroying the banking system. Thus the lowest interest rate available from any of the members in the scheme would dictate the value of the gold bond - and the POG. The lower the rate, the lower the POG.

So why the Euro?
To the Continental European, Asian, and Eastern view, this cash free system still contains the fatal flaw of debt unwinding. Furthermore, experience has shown repeatedly, that government participation in the debt system ends up with a major issuance of government notes and the monetization of these notes when the deflation and economic contraction occur.

The key differences for the Euro are (1) that eventually there would be a cash version for debt settlement, namely gold, (2) The governments of members can't enjoy seigniorage because the currency is issued by a separate structure that is forbiden to lend to governments, but hold only commercial and retail debt.

Perhaps more later.
Elwood
Late Night, Early Morning
Trail Guide (5/7/2000; 0:09:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 30082)
Thinking about taking a Yen/Gold cross. Get the Yen for next to nothing, and exchange for physical. Easy money. I prefer Pepsi, btw. It tastes better.

All, thanks for the kind words, and all the mail on the GoldTango analysis. If only a tiny fraction of the people who read it sent a comment then we PGAs are an army indeed.

Harley, sorry to hear of your "loss." I'll raise one for your hawg.

Oro, love your work, keep it coming. Specifically, what's magic about the $450 billion number for the trade deficit?

SimplyMe, gambling risk is created risk for the excitement of the game. Speculative or investment risk is transference to another party of an existing risk without regard to the intelligence, or lack thereof, possessed by the assuming party.
Regards,
Elwood
THC
Towncrier
Good morning!!!

Japan's GOLDEN WEEK Holiday is now coming to an end......

Thank you for proposing the "exercise" the other day. Taking the other side of a debate/discussion is a great way to maintain an "objective view" of things.

Let me first clarify:

*I don't doubt that the US gov't has an interest in keeping the POG low.
*I don't doubt the importance of physical metal as an insurance hedge and "store of wealth."

I just have trouble accepting the concept that the price of physical metal will soar, while the expiry price of futures contracts (which can be converted into gold) would dive.

Regarding your "exercise," Ted Butler has described how the US futures exchanges favor shorts over longs, and the issues he describes may be important for manipulation.

However, we must keep in mind that all short positions must eventually be closed by:
1. Buying back the position
2. Delivering the gold

The fact that we do not have a gold shortage at present indicates that the current price level has been sufficient to get metal to those who want it. Not that this will never change, as this is all HISTORY.......tomorrow is a new day.

Good luck to all!

THC
Henri
Thoughts for a Sunday Morning
The truth is to the human mind as the sun to a tree. The leaves of a tree are as thoughts reaching out to capture the greatest amount of illumination possible from their limited reach. Often the intensity of the light is diminished by those leaves occupying a higher position than themselves yet they reach out nonetheless for what meager scraps of brilliance are left to them. From this light the leaves create nourishment and structure to reach ever higher in the pursuit of those elusive beams. The wind rustles the leaves above confusing the leaves below as to where the best position might be to capture the most light. First it is here, then it is there. How is a leaf to perform well in these squalid conditions?

Then slowly but surely the light dims everywhere. Where has all the light gone? The source of our life and structure. Surely this is the end of life as we know it. Darkness sets in for what seems an eternity. The leaves so intent on the higher pursuit of the light of life become as all other creatures, mere consumers of earth's bounty.

Then the dawn begins sending out its dim tendrils of hope. The leaves quiver in revelation. The cycle renews. The light becomes brighter. The leaves of the highest trees look down upon the lowly subsistance below them. See how we confuse them and take all the sustenance for ourselves. Surely we are superior to that below and deserve to rule over their antics. See how they stretch to catch a glimpse of the bounty we choose to allow them. See how they cast their seeds in the hope of attaining a better position in life where they may be free of our influence. They see how we starve them as we take not only their light but the major share of the mother earth's nutrients and water.

But the upper leaves are deluded. Since they cannot conceive of existence from the perspective of the lowly, they do not realize the perspective. No matter how much light they obscure form the lower levels, no matter how diminished the intensity or quality of the light, the essential essence of the light remains unchanged. The purity of its purpose is so simple it cannot be diminished in essence...only in quality and intensity.

The lofty have ample opportunity to learn of this amazing fact when clouds obscure their own light. What affliction is this that brings the darkness upon us! Surely it is evil. They see not that it brings life as surely as the light. The rain wind and lightning ravage their ranks. This can not be a useful thing. We all know the water comes from the great beyond and is carried by the sacred river to bathe our deep roots. Yes, and our roots too are superior those of the lowly for we can drink deeper and deprive them of the moisture they require. They worship the rains...the bain of our existence...see how they cavort and celebrate its arrival. They mock us as our leaves are shredded and our limbs buckle. See how they race to fill the ground below where the rains have provided them a bright spot not occluded by our magnificence. We cast our seeds among them but they choke our children before they have a chance at life.

The lofty choose not to see that which is. They know not that the source of all is constant and unrelenting and if their leaves should ever encounter its true intensity,they would wither and burn in its glory.

They do not realize that it is only the love of the earth mother in its eternal love dance with the sun that gives the illusion of night and day, of winter and spring.

May we all strive to find the truth by observation of only its pure essence whereever it appears. That which obscures the truth worships false gods. While they thrive they lose touch with the joy of a simple rainfall. It is they that are the inferior life form.
USAGOLD
Test. . .
Test. . .Got a message that our system might be down. Checking.
schippi
Gold Roadmap Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/gldresit.gif Multiyear Gold resistance chart:
The above chart displays the current Gold roadmap.
1) A multiyear downtrend has been concluded.
2) Currently we have a well defined sideways trading channel.
3) Presently, Gold is at the bottom of this channel and moving Up.
4) A spike down below this channel is possible, but should be
for only a brief span of time.
Cavan Man
Trail Guide, my big holiday is......
Saint Patrick's day. Seriouly though, while 'tis good to have your leadership along the trail, why do you spend your time here the way you do? What is your incentive, your motivation?

thanks....CM
HI - HAT
ORO
A question if I may? With the combining of the stock exchange in London and the one in Frankfurt, it seems the Continent is near completion of consolidating their Bourses. The British did not want their shares quoted in Euro's, but they have now reluctantly agreed. Talk is now Nasdaq seeks to enjoin this Powerful network. These are all electronic exchanges. The NYSE is the only major exchange that is not electronic. My question is, are the US exchanges hands tied and do you think they will lose premminance to a vast Continental 24 hour a day electronic exchange, iX ?
da2g
FOA msg#21
Many thanks to FOA for giving me a sense of the future purchasing power of an ounce of gold (today apparently discounted by a factor of up to 100 times in dollar terms). I guess this was the insight I was originally looking for with my cheeseburger posts. This number absolutely blows my mind.
Journeyman
Where the stock market boom-bubble came from @ ORO, ALL
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp
Hint: It didn't come from value creation or productivity increases.

The next time you listen to the heads talking about the "new economy" and
how stocks aren't overvalued, consider that the FED (Federal Reserve) has
been expanding credit at an unprecedented rate since the early ninties - - -
in the context of Oro's post earlier today and the following from von Mises:

The objective of credit expansion is to favor the interests of some
groups of the population at the expense of others. This is, of course, the
best that interventionism can attain when it does not hurt the interests
of all groups. But while making the whole community poorer, it may still
enrich some strata. Which groups belong to the latter class depends on the
special data of each case.
+
The idea which generated what is called qualitative credit control is
to channel the additional credit in such a way as to concentrate the
alleged blessings of credit expansion upon certain groups and to withhold
them from other groups. The credits should not go to the stock exchange,
it is argued, and should not make stock prices soar. They should rather
benefit the "legitimate productive activity" of the processing industries,
of mining, of "legitimate commerce," and, first of all, of farming. Other
advocates of qualitative credit control want to prevent the additional
credits from being used for investment in fixed capital and thus
immobilized. They are to be used, instead, for the production of liquid
goods. According to these plans the authorities give the banks concrete
directions concerning the types of loans they should grant or are
forbidden to grant.
+
However, all such schemes are vain. Discrimination in lending is no
substitute for checks placed on credit expansion, the only means that
could really prevent a rise in stock exchange quotations and an expansion
of investment in fixed capital. The mode in which the additional amount of
credit finds its way into the loan market is only of secondary importance.
What matters is that there is an inflow of newly created credit. If the
banks grand more credits to the farmers, the farmers are in a position to
repay loans received from other sources and to pay cash for their
purchases. If they grant more credits to business as circulating capital,
they free funds which were previously tied up for this use. In any case
they create an abundance of disposable money for which its owners try to
find the most profitable investment. Very promptly these funds find
outlets in the stock exchange or in fixed investment. The notion that it
is possible to pursue a credit expansion without making stock prices rise
and fixed investment expand is absurd.[6]
+
[6] Cf. Machlup, The Stock Market, Credit and Capital Formation, pp.
256-261 -Ludwig von Mises, HUMAN ACTION, XXXI. CURRENCY AND CREDIT
MANIPULATION, 5. Credit Expansion [available on-line - - - click on the
link in the header of this message]

Regards,
Journeyman


Bonedaddy
The nex momentum play?
Stayed home sick on Thursday. I was lying on the couch watching "Squawk Box" or some other CNBC show. The gold stocks got a little play. The mood was kinda down for this dog and pony show. It got me to wondering, when the "new economy" stocks finally do tank, and that may be very soon, what kind of fodder will keep these relatively new financial talk shows on the air? If their ratings drop, they're toast. They simply must find something to keep the "smarter investor" tuned in. The talk about gold stocks this on day was rather upbeat for a change. One guest even said that investors should start looking for stocks that paid dividends. (now there's a novel idea!) So, the talk shows, to survive, have got to find something of real value to talk about during the crash of the .coms. If that turns out to be gold stocks, some percenage of people will likely diversify into PHYSICAL GOLD! Just imagine what would happen to the price of physical if 5% of the .com money started chasing GOLD. The type of investor that chases momentum is heavily influenced by these shows. And the financial talk networks may be left with nothing else worth talking about except gold stocks. Maybe ANOTHER's price scenarios wouldn't seem so far fetched if they were viewed in relation to the PE ration of a .com stock.
Gandalf the White
But, Bonedaddy !
They talking heads will only speak of buying gold stocks which are only another form of PAPER !!! THEY NEVER will discuss the thought of buying the real thing of PHYSICAL !!!
That would be totally against the rules.
<;-)
Leigh
Gandalf, Bonedaddy
Maybe they could convey a subliminal message by wearing gold and silver jewelry. Can't you see Joe Kernan with gold chains around his neck!
Trail Guide
Good! our fourum is back up
ORO (5/7/2000; 3:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30083)

Hello ORO,

A few comments about your work.

-------Particularly surprising was how right Davidson and Reese Mogg were about the dollar debt squeeze.----------

ORO, It has to unwind through a reserve transition. Default will only come through inflation after the fact. That is the only way a modern reserve currency can revert back to a regular currency without a complete washout of the global financial structure. Call it what we want, inflation, deflation, default or devaluation, the loss of the ability to expand a reserve fiat further becomes an end time banking crisis that requires the next system to take over. If no replacement is available we all go down.

The problem of when is a currency no longer "reserve quality" is based more on it's expansion qualities than it's comparable exchange strengths. The failing point is reached when the local economic system can no longer supply products or new productive capabilities in sufficient quantity to expand the internal debt base for real use reasons. The money then just expands because it's "Legal Tender" and anyone can get some. This shuts off the real money making engine and forces currency creation only for the sake of it's ability to buy and finance things. Not it's ability to hold a steady value. In other words, more dollars are loaned into existence just because they still have some value left in them to trade for things and that value is based on debt pay back strength. Not because their creation is matched by a productive increase somewhere in the society.

Obviously the US has been on this path for some time. Today, the only reason the dollar still has value is because of this pay back crisis. Dollar denominated debt is so far out of line with it's perceived real economic base, the rush is on to move real world infrastructure debt out of dollars
and leave the rest of these dollar claime sloshing around as trading vehicles. And boy that's a lot of slosh to move around.(smile)

They (ECB / BIS) planed for the day when this could begin and it's here, now! The Euro, warts and all is allowing this transition. In time everyone will realize that dollar demand and strength is gravitating towards nothing more than international currency contract settlement. It has no reflection of US economic conditions or the value of our real assets. For large cross country players and
governments there is no escape from this. They cannot just dump dollars to get their equity back out of it because there isn't enough free "REAL" equity in the whole world to run to at today's prices. The only way is to hold an offset position and let the dollar self destruct through inflation. Is it no wonder the foreign CBs have supported the dollar system by holding and taking in more dollars? How could everyone possibly run out of the dollar? They couldn't and won't for the most part, but will sell what they can.

Gold value today and tomorrow will have nothing to do with economic supply and demand or the cost to mine it. It will be forced to rise in value to help represent trading wealth currently held and trapped in dollars. The Euro could never do it alone. Of course, dollar hyper-inflation will gun the
process, but physical gold in real goods terms is heading way up! That's why I laugh when people talk about $700 or $800 gold being about right. That's not even close.

Again, dollar strength today is a sign of a bad situation and will only get worse. It will gut the productive infrastructure of this country even as the fed super inflates the system to fight that strength.

Your words:
----------The reason a bank debt currency carries a value at all, and does not go directly to 0 is that each unit was borrowed into existence and has a demand by the borrower to return the currency created by his loan. -----------

Yes! This hits right at the heart of why I call our dollars only an illusion of wealth. Truly it's just a contract
that can and is created between two entities with banks as the broker. The person that sees dollar value based on this demand and then holds those dollar assets as his wealth,,,,, is buying into an illusion based on that contract relationship. It's ok to own fiat money based on this concept because the human world has built a lot of value through the ongoing building of currency debt based on real productive efforts. But our money denominations and supply today are nowhere close to that comparison. Unless a free market value for gold can be established where one can
gauge the quality of all outstanding contract relationships (money supply), we cannot know where we stand. Allowing a real gold price to always rise (or contract) with no limits turns it into something better than circulating government money. It becomes a circulating asset that represents
real wealth values at all times to all people. We are on that road today.

Further you make the point that:

---------The BIG GAPING HOLE in this system is that there is no such thing as cash--------

I agree and doubt there will ever be again. This is where gold traded as an asset instead of competing with money would fill that hole.

Thanks Trail Guide


Leland
This is Sad and I'm Wondering...Is the Internet Going to Survive?
INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES

If you thought the 'love bug' was bad, just wait

By JASON BURKE and NICK PATON WALSH
London Observer Service
May 07, 2000

- You sit at your desk, park your coffee next to your mouse, fire up your computer and
click to check your e-mail. And in that one tiny movement, before you have even looked
to see if there are any suspicious messages, it could be too late.

Just by clicking on your "Get Mail" you could have turned your PC into a pile of useless
plastic. It is every computer user's worst nightmare _ and it's coming soon to a screen
near you. Brace yourself for the supervirus.

Meanwhile, the "love bug" has given us all a taste of what could be coming. Though its
creator must be concerned about the police knocking on his door within hours, he must
also be feeling fairly pleased with himself. The virus he set loose on the world on
Thursday has already caused millions of dollars' worth of damage, more than any other
virus or hacking attack since the dawn of cyberhistory.

The program worked because it was simple. It lay dormant for nearly a week before
surfacing on computer screens in Hong Kong. The message _ seemingly sent by
someone known to the computer user _ said "ILOVEYOU' and had an attachment which
appeared to be a love letter.

Launching the attachment allowed a program to invade the computer, which not only
sent copies of the e-mail to all the addresses listed on the machine but also scooped
up all the passwords it could find and sent them back to the creator of the bug.

Those first clicks triggered a flood. Billions of pulses raced through the world's phone
lines, spattering the virus in all directions. It was the fastest-spreading bug ever,
infecting five million machines within 36 hours. Everyone from the Pentagon to the
House of Commons to New Zealand universities was hit. An estimated 20 percent of the
world's computers were affected.

Yet it could have been much worse. The love bug worked by proliferating at such a rate
that Internet systems couldn't handle the overload. That may cause temporary collapse,
but there's little long-term damage. The damage that this bug _ technically known as a
"worm" _ did to picture and music files did cause problems, but these were far from
catastrophic.

Cyber-sabotage of a more deadly kind by was indicated by a development in November
when researchers at Network Associates, a computer security firm, received a series of
e-mails with the subject heading "Bubbleboy is back!'. As they examined the virus, their
eyes widened. It was, says Vincent Gullotto, director of the company's anti-virus team,
"a watershed."

The Bubbleboy virus broke the long-standing rule that you have to open an e-mail
attachment to become infected. By the time it was in your inbox it was too late.

Thankfully Bubbleboy, though it e-mailed itself to everyone in a computer's address
book, did not have a "destructive payload' and so did little damage. Few took much
notice of the quantum leap that it represented.

Virus writers have made advances in other areas. In April 1999 a virus called Chernobyl
was activated in hundreds of thousands of computers in Asia and the Middle East,
striking on the anniversary of the nuclear accident it was named after. Not only did it
wipe out stored data, it destroyed BIOS _ the basic instructions that tell a machine how
to start.

Now virus writers have married the destructive capabilities of Chernobyl with the invasive
capabilities of Bubbleboy and the speed of the Love Bug. The combination is the
supervirus.

According to experts, at least 50 such superviruses have already been detected on the
Internet. None have yet been launched at the public. Some may not work; some may be
shot down by existing virus defenses; some might get through. And that is the
nightmare scenario.

A hacker known as "Dark Tangent," who heads a group which advises big businesses
on their security, said the only surprise is that a "supervirus hasn't happened yet."

"For the last two years we've all been waiting," he said. "I don't know why we have not
seen one. It could happen next week."

The damage a successful supervirus could do is almost incalculable. "It would be as if
the Millennium Bug has actually done everything it was feared it could do," said one
London-based computer security expert.

The first question confronting law enforcement agencies and commercial outfits hired to
protect companies and institutions against such an attack is who would be likely to
launch it. Authorities are focusing on the threat from terrorist groups, who they fear
might use viruses to extort money or blackmail governments into giving in to political
demands.

"The supervirus is going to happen soon," said a source close to British intelligence
services. "There are people out there with that intention. They may coincide their
actions with protests against the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade
Organisation, just to muddy the water."

Many of the organizations connected with anarchist violence in London number hackers
in their ranks.

Another threat is from hostile governments. The US defence department believes 120
countries pose a serious threat to cyber-security. They include Libya, Iraq, Croatia and
Serbia. The Chinese are thought to have created military regiments dedicated to
cyber-warfare.

Experts say national security authorities are only just waking up to the threat from the
Internet _ a threat that will be magnified when technology allows e-mails to be read on
mobile phone-type units.

Many experts also say the security agencies are looking in the wrong place. Mike
Bluestone, director of Berkeley Security Bureau of London, said those who launch virus
attacks are more likely to be "cyber-vandals," not "cyber-terrorists."

"Terrorists make targeted demands and like a high degree of control over their
operations," he said. "A supervirus is more likely to be the brainchild of a spotty
adolescent than some terrorist mastermind."

(Thanks to THE LONDON OBSERVER, and Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only)
Canuck
From FOA / Trail Guide
FOA:

"Gold value today and tomorrow will have nothing to do with economic supply and demand or the cost to mine it. It will be forced to rise in value to help represent trading wealth currently held and trapped in dollars. The Euro could never do it alone. Of course, dollar hyper-inflation will gun the
process, but physical gold in real goods terms is heading way up! That's why I laugh when people talk about $700 or $800 gold being about right. That's not even close."
-----------------------------------------------------------

To 'lurkers' and 'novices' like myself,

This statement summarizes the outlook for gold in the future, guessimates range from a few days/weeks to a few months; few guesstimates look past a year.

The USA is saddled with debt; federal, corporate and personal, dozens of sites verify this claim. Debt, leverage,
derivative speculation and marginalized commitments are at
unheard of numbers. Research for yourself, make yourself knowledgeable, decide for yourself, I merely echo a thought
of another.

The dollar's value is maintained by its inherent ability to pay back debt. What if that debt cannot be paid back?

I can buy goods with my personal cheque; my word is to back the 'chit' and pay down my debt. If I can't service my debt my 'chits' become worthless. If I expand my credit and 'float' my debt to a point where I cannot collateralize
anymore what is the confidence and faith of my 'paper'?

Your decision (partly) to invest in gold rides with the belief in the dollar. If the faith and confidence of the US$
is under scutiny, if international entities liquidate massive holdings of dollars, the value of the dollar will become so diluted and I believe this is the essence of many discussions at USAGOLD.

We watch the US$, the markets, interest rates, and numerous
economic indicators; what lies ahead? Will US policy makers
stabilize the monetary situation or is financial mayhem around the corner. I am positive of one thing, I know not for sure.

My intuition lies with the following; gold is at a very long low, the US$ is at a high, markets are unstable, each day more 'statists' mention dollar instability and economic
uncertainty.

There is one other little thing; the 'guns' on this forum do not have an agenda, in my humble opinion, why would they care if you and I bought gold or not? If a hundred people and another couple hundred 'lurkers' bought 100 ounces of gold that would be what, 10 million dollars, big deal. The USG is in debt 6 trillion; who has the agenda?

I am buying gold and silver with every spare nickle I have.
I do not recommend the same. Instead I recommend you research the data, buy gold if it pleases you and don't if it doesn't. If you elect to buy 'gold' buy physical, gold in hand is yours, there is no claim on it, it has not been collateralized a dozen times, you are the owner.

Canuck


Dollar Bill
Is murphy irresponsible
So much for the idea that the derivitive positions could
just be waved away like imagined by John Hathaway and some hathaway converts on the forum.

Murphy himself is convinced that the positions are a possible catastrophy (I agree) and where I differ from him still, is that his trumpeting of the the vulnerability is not needed and dangerously irresponsible.

Alerting congressmen?
He thinks higher of them then I do I guess and since when do regular congressmen have any power in this arena? The commitee chairmen and the party leaders are all on board the fiat bus. The BIS is supporting the gold priceing arrangement.

Murphy intimates that he got hit in the face on the street because of this effort of his.
I say he had a sourpuss look on his face and some passerby took it personal.
I would like to see him type one sentence that indicates he understands the full possible ramifications of his actions.
Black Blade
Bonedaddy and Squawk Box
I remember about 20 years ago when CNBC's Predecessor was FNN (Financial News Network) used to have fair commentary including gold and gold stocks. There was a weekly or biweekly program at night called "The Silver Baron" that was hosted by Bill Griffith (now on CNBC) and the Silver Baron was a fellow named Elliot Pearson who was an analyst of mostly small gold producers and exploration companies. BTW, does anyone know if Elliot Pearson is still around or even alive? However, after CNBC acquired FNN, the evenhanded approach to all sectors and investments ended and CNBC evolved into an all day infomercial for brokerage houses. In fact, there also was a woman anchor with a Brit. accent named Liebe Geff who also seemed to put a positive spin on PMs. This was at a time when the network was dedicated to financial news 24 hours a day, but now has pseudo-journalists such as Geraldo Rivera who have orgasms whenever they fawn all over Bill Clinton and how terrible his detractors are. If PMs become the hot sector as the others are cast aside, it will become quite interesting (not to mention quite funny) as to how quick the Ron Insanes, Maria Bartiromos and Joe Kernans start dancing to a different tune.
YGM
Dollar Bill...
So What's Your Point....(concerning Bill Murprhy)Do you have a problem w/ one who fights for his beliefs or "Stands For Something"?...... IMHO...Bill Murphy intimates very seldom or little but speaks aloud his vision of the truth........and his vision is shared by MANY......

Trumpeting the truth (derivative vulnerability) is "Not Needed"...Give me a break buddy....The Truth "IS" all that's needed to set the world right......

I'd like to see you print one sentence that can dispute the mountains of evidence gathered and disseminated by the likes of Bill Murphy and the GATA Team. That dream team consists of alot more than I see you offering,.......YGM.
Most here understand the ramifications of Bills (GATAs) actions....if not! ....they've been asleep at the wheel.....YGM.
Bonedaddy
Leigh, Gandalf, and Blade
We watch for this GOLD jewelry together, yes? (Personally I'd like to see Maria Bartiromo sporting a GOLD cap on one of her pearly whites.)
VanRip
What Would You Do?

It seems to me that there must be some very clever folks in Washington and the banking and financial industries that are well aware of the events and topics discussed on this forum. And I imagine that some of these folks are spending considerable time and effort figuring out ways to delay, engineer or even stop the anticipated collapse of the dollar. If you were one of these folks, what strategy would you dream up (legal, illegal, moral, immoral, ethical or unethical)?

Though I haven't a clue, I suspect that the longer this currency drama continues, the more likely it is that some clever and complex scheme will emerge.

Bonedaddy
Leland, just read your post
Most of us have spent quite a bit of time trying to guess where the pin would come from that would pop this .com bubble. These computer viruses may have us all talking to each other on ham radios. This cannot be good news for a "new economy". This is much worse news than the Justice Department's case against Microsoft. This is more like a rogue nation having a cyber nuke! The stock markets and bank clearing systems could become very unreliable. Sounds kind of like the Y2K disaster happening at no particular time. I don't like this at all. We are way too reliant on technology. E-banking, I don't think so. I'll be glad to own physical GOLD, impervious to rust, flood, cold, currency debasement, and yes, even cyber terror. As for the internet, I always liked Strother Martin as the Cap'n in "Cool Hand Luke". "What we got ourselves hea'.... is failya'.... to communicate."
ThaiGold
Soaring Silver Imports
The Trend of the Future Has Begun.!.================================================================================
5-7-2000
To ALL:

I recently received some email from a friend. (Believe it or not, I have one).
He was telling me that his lady friend had just purchased a brand new car...

From Saturn.!. With a Silver paint job. Or perhaps more cheaply, simply Silver-plated.

She traded in her outdated Izusu SUV. From Mars. Upon someone's Forum advice.

And I quickly wrote back, saying that I was surprised to hear they had dealers
now, here on Earth. She at first had considered a domestic: A Buick. But the
sticker price of it was out of this world. So she went elsewhere. Where prices
were more down to earth. Well, almost Earth. It may have cost as much as the
average EarthRanch. If inflation is taken into consideration. And POS and POG.

I've often wished I could visit a Saturn factory. It must be an amazing
sight to see all those little green men. And women. Working feverishly
on their assembly line. With their pointy little ears. And dual-antennae.
Workers at the Pluto factories, I'm told, have bigger, floppier ears. But
I have no information about their antennae, if any. Is anyone here in the
Forum from Pluto.?. Or perhaps been there panning for Gold.?. Or wood.?.

I asked if it had lotsa headroom.?. Probably does. Especially if they think
Earthlings have antennae atop our heads too. Ideal, I mused, for drivers
from Rio. Plenty of room for their fruit basket hats. And too, even for
some Americans. Around Easter. Or in Europe, for those with French HairDo's.
What's that word.?. Bouffant.?. Or Brussels Sprout.?. Something like that.

She enjoys it's massive 4-channel stereo. How ironic. The Saturn designers
assumed humans have four ears. Too. But it's an ideal car for the current
era. Most motorists nowadays, to conserve expensive fossil fuel, simply
turn off their engines. And cruise with the speaker-blast pointed rearward.
Most even drive with all their windows open. So others drivers can see
-and hear- that they are being responsible and conservative. And curteous.

The Saturn vehicle apparently has round wheels. But I'm still wondering if
they already had that technology. Or did they have to reinvent it there.?.
Doesn't matter much. Most laws of physics are ...er.... Universal. We know
that to be true, by watching the Paper Markets. What Goes UP.. Goes Down.
Or viceversa.. Or is it Vice-Vice. Or Vice-VP.?.

Or like Off & On. Hot & Cold. In & Out. Up & Down. Etc & Etc. Just imagine how
frustrating it would be, if -say- the Saturnistic heater switch was like
my Ford pickup truck's: Off & Off. Why, the buying public would never tolerate
such inconvenience and irregularity. Or at least not for long. -Say- since 1977.

At Ford, "Quality is Number One". Longevity is Number Zero. On a scale of
one to ten, I think. General Motors may be worse: "Quality is Just a Rumor".
That's why they expanded to Saturn. To import some. Wasn't it.?.

Saturn imports are soaring, here on Earth. In the USA. I worry that it may
worsen our Trade Deficit. People here in the Forum should be concerned as
well. I asked my friend, if the Saturn dealer accepted US currency (dollars)
in payment.?. Or did they only accept pie-in-the-sky kited checks.?. Or kited
Gold.?. They haven't responded yet. I suppose GreenPeople, like GreenSpans,
would accept GreenBacks as legal -or even illegal- tender. Does anyone in
the Forum know (yet) what color the EURO's will be printed in.?. Or would
anyone there even want to import from Saturn. Probably trade barriers are
sufficient to rule it out for the time being.

The ride from Saturn is equally out of this world. Else how would they get them
here. Imported vehicles from Mercury don't handle as well. Too splippery. At
one time America musta imported alot from there. We even minted a special
coin to use in the intergalactic trade cycle. It was a Dime. They loved it.
Melted them all down; discarded the useless Silver content; and then recycled
them to America. As obsolete mercuric cars. Canada too. What were they called.?.
I forget the name. but it was an appropriate derivitive. Oh..yes... Comets.

I'm not sure if we import any other vehicles from outer space. But there is a
"used" one, I saw advertised in the NASA want-ads: Mir. There's no warrantee.
And the dealer isn't always very dependable. But the price is good. In Rubles.
NASA will pay it regardless, in Politiks. How many Politiks to one US$ dollar.?.
How many Politiks to 1oz of Gold.?. Or to 1oz of Silver.?. Probably too many.

And when I was a teenager, hubcaps from the Moon were all the rage. And even
my little Suzuki Samurai has a name that's obviously not local. It's probably
built on some planet I've never heard of. Nor been to yet. Isn't Suzuki the
next planet out from Jupiter.?. Sorta mythical. Or is that one Samurai.?.

You know, I think it's all in the name. Importing and exporting and success.
Foreigners probably think Americans are all crazy too. By the odd names we give
to our exports. Like: N-ash; Ply-mouth; Corv-air; Pac-kard; HP; Chev-Ro-Let;
and Hup-Mob-ile. My other friend, Rex, says the Indians lobbied Congress to
pass an export regulation that prohibits the export of any Native Artifacts.
Like: Pontiac; Cadillac; And Similac. Some things are just too sacred to
share with outsiders. Or insiders. Stock traders and such. To stay on-topic.

But I digress.. It's all in the name. I remember, several years ago, Datsun
couldn't sell very many of their cars in the USA. Too much WW-II resentment
toward the Japanese still existed. So they changed their name: To Nissan.
Americans bought them in droves. Thinking it was a deluxe Swiss'un, mispelled.
Very clever of those Japanese. What a mistake it would have been if they'd
named it Nippon instead. Taiwan's Toy-R-Us didn't make the same mistake
either, when they began to export their cars to us. Toy-O-Taz. Sorta sounds
Indian, doesn't it. Rex says he thinks they intended that. To grab market share.

Here in the small town where I live, DavenPork, USA, there's only one single
vehicle dealer. So there's not really alot of choice here. Take it or leave it.
Everyone seems happy however. Driving around, to Safeway, in their John Deeres.
Rex insists that's an outreach name to the local Tribes as well. But I disagree
strongly (as usual) with him. I mean, if they wanted to sell animalish-named
cars and such to folks around here, then Caterpillars would mostly be in vogue.
But they aren't. So that proves I'm right.

Mitsubishi is thinking of expanding their line of vehicle exports too. Mostly
we know them for their fine CRT monitors and VCRs and Floppy Drives. But back
home, they have a big line of Steam Shovels, Forklifts, and even their own
brandname of giant caterpillars. I may get one. Just to be different. Imagine
how envious all the townsfolk will be. When I pull up in my Steam Shovel.

You Can Quote Me if I'm Wrong...

ThaiGold
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
================================================================================
elevator guy
@ Dollar Bill
Ok, Dollar Bill, you just sit back in your easy chair and watch Bill Murphy get the bruises for fighting for gold.

You needn't lend a hand, because your internal value system puts you above such endeavor.

Thank you for your tireless efforts toward the liberation of gold, which is synonymous with the liberation of truth, which sets all men free, only to the disdain of those entrenched in evil works.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Topaz
Thai re: Autos

HI Thai,
That previous post reminded me of an amusing tale revolving around Cars, Animals etc.
Mitsubishi have been active in the Auto Manufacturing/Sales business here in Oz for many years.
One of their early efforts was the "STARION"
Of course all and sundry were mystified as to the origins of such a percular name until it was revealed that- that's how the Japanese would pronounce the English word for a "Male Horse"
Their products nowadays are 1st class and consistently win Car of the Year awards in many catagories.

Just thought I'd share.

and Oh.. AH.. GO GOLD!!
Topaz
Trail Guide

On this Trail: "I'll tak the High Road and Ye'll tak the low road" and we'll both get to "Scotland" (eventually). {;>)

Good evening Sir:
As I have not addressed you directly before, just let me say how much I appreciate your efforts to provide thought provoking and informative commentary to all those who gather here --- a big effort indeed!!----- now to matters at hand;
It is apparent you perceive the current pricing mechanism (spot- futures) will implode and the POG reduced accordingly until the "penny drops" ie: Paper and Physical will go their separate ways--- Ok so far?
You came to this conclusion several months ago after "enlightenment" from ANOTHER source. (we all remember the fracas that erupted resulting in Sir Stranger's sin-binning) Since then, the possibility of an upside explosion in POG has been totally discounted.
For the benefit of those who still cling to the hope of a steady rise in the price, can you offer your thoughts on what is now a contrary alternative to your scenario?

Just for the record I would like to cite the reason I consider the Status-quo will be maintained throughout this transition:-
Accepting that Au is the centre of the Fiscal Universe and as such, (has/is/) will be manipulated by opposing interests, is it not to the ultimate benefit of both sides to effect a controlled burn to the upside thus not jeopardizing the perception of Fiat currencies as a whole?
(Similar to a nuclear standoff- where no-one wins if all the cards are played)
I mean to say- If all holders of paper Au find themselves getting shafted, it may well have the effect that these large players/ countries etc will even turn away from all forms of Fiat settlement and go straight to Metal which is in no-ones interests -No?
Whereas, a steadily rising price (in fits and starts) can be (once again) perceived as the inflation indicator it is.
The outcome would be the same in the end--Yes?
I hope this sufficiently explains my thinking and look forward to your comments.

Topaz
Hipplebeck
on tv last night
I watched questions for the prime minister Tony Blair on c-span. It's on every Sunday night.
On of the members asked for a report on the nations reserves since the bank had sold off the nations gold and converted some of the reserves to Euros. He also said "And are you aware mister prime minister, that in that same time frame the Germans have tripled their gold reserves from 10 billion to 30 billion" (I assume he is talking about euros here).
So I guess Germany is one of the central banks buying gold.
How much is 30 billion euros in gold?
Tony Blair deflected the question as European bashing and said some are selling and some are buying gold and that he is perfectly happy with the situation.
Black Blade
Reason GOLD dropped last week.
http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/clive/Clive20000502.htmlSA gold producer Goldfeilds fell last week while other SA producers held their own. The link above tells the story.
Topaz
@All re: Sir Dollar Bill

I feel a bit like the Kid who got to school early and Graffitied the Blackboard this Morning, however:-

The opinions expressed by Sir Bill are exactly those one would expect from 99.99% of the Western non Au holding population.
We who choose to measure our lifes efforts in other than Currencies are sorely in the Vast Minority- cripes! We don't even rate "Minority Group" status. Woe betides us when all that is discussed here comes to pass.
Sir Bill-- know you are not alone.
Black Blade
Gold investment in S. Africa.
http://196.36.119.130/MGGold.nsf/Current/422567D9004530DFC12568D8005384BD?OpenDocumentWho woulda thought that purchasing gold in SA would be a problem? Seems that some SA producers are ready to challenge the law!
Black Blade
Branded Gold?
http://196.36.119.130/422567CB004DBB8F/(UNID)/DMKY-4JANHC?OpenDocumentOne thought comes to mind here. Why don't the gold producers coop their product? Better yet - why don't gold producers vertically integrate their companies and serve the public with upstream (exploration and mining) and downstream (Bullion, Jewelry, and finished products and investment services) operations much like "Big Oil"? Why not make a profit on expanded margins on either end when POG is both either up or down and minimize risk? Lot of possibilities here!
SteveH
WACO (protecting gold)
It is held by some that the BATF took the first shots at WACO.

By Cindy Loose Washington Post Staff Writer Saturday , April 29, 2000

Carlos Ghigliotti, who had been retained by a U.S. House committee to
help investigate the 1993 siege of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco,
Tex., was found dead in Laurel under unexplained circumstances yesterday.


"We're investigating it as a homicide," said Laurel police spokesman Jim
Collins. Ghigliotti, 42, was found about 1:30 p.m. in the 600 block of
Washington Boulevard. His body was badly decomposed, said police. There
were no signs of a break-in or a struggle at the home, where Ghigliotti
ran his business, Infrared Technologies Corp., police said. An expert in
thermal imaging and videotape, Ghigliotti told the House Government
Reform Committee in October that his analysis of tapes at Waco indicated
that an FBI agent fired shots at the compound on April 19, the final day
of the siege--a view disputed by the FBI.

more at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38496-2000Apr29.html
Black Blade
Morning Wakeup Call!
Source: Bridge NewsInvestors mull legal action against TOCOM over palladium contract

Tokyo--May 8--Some Japanese private investors who have sustained losses from the palladium contract of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) are mulling a joint legal action against TOCOM, which started imposing strict market controls over the contract in February as a result of frenzied volatility, an investor source told Bridge News Monday. (Story .13328)

Black Blade: And I hope they win and end up forcing these criminals into bankruptcy too! Talk about rigged markets!!!!!!

Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold edges weaker after Friday's slip

Tokyo--May 8--Spot gold edged weaker Monday in Asia due to lack of buying interests after Friday's slip in the U.S. market, dealers said. A weaker U.S. dollar/yen throughout Japan's golden week holidays triggered some speculative buying in the Tokyo Commodity Exchange platinum market but unclear expectations of Russia's exports capped spot platinum prices in the afternoon, they said. (Story .2200)

Black Blade: Still no confirmed PGM deliveries! Yawn��

Russia's Rosbank says will buy 16 tons gold from producers in 2000

Moscow--May 5--Rosbank, one of Russia's leading operators on the precious metals market, has concluded deals with domestic producers for the purchase of 16 tonnes of gold and 145 tonnes of silver during the 2000 season. An official with the bank said these were the guaranteed amounts, while the bank's actual buying of the metals from producers would be higher. (Story .13111)

Black Blade: Don't laugh, but can you just imagine the ruble worth more that the dollar someday? ;-)
USAGOLD
Today's Gold Report: Quiet Start to What Could Be a Big Week
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/8/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
278.90
-1.20
Silver July Comex
5.08
+0.3
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
93~17
-0~01
Dollar Index June NYBOT
111.70
+0.50

Market Report (5/8/00): Gold opened weaker this morning after a quiet night overseas. Trading
was thin in both Asia and Europe. The dollar continued to drub its competitors in the forex
markets particularly the euro which is down another half cent in early trading. A joint statement by
European finance ministers promising to "speed up ongoing fiscal consolidation and structural
reforms" did little to stem the growing tide threatening to engulf the euro. The Commodity Futures
Trading Commission commitment of traders report had large speculators gold short positions up
another 12,191 contracts over the past two weeks -- a 27% rise. Traders said that gold could get a
boost if inflation concerns continue to escalate given that many investors regard it as an inflation
hedge, according to this morning's Bridge News report. All in all, it has been a subdued opening
to the week's festivities which features the Producer Price Index report on Thursday. Consumer
Prices will be reported next Tuesday.

Gold briefly rallied on the highly inflationary unemployment numbers on Friday (to the $282
range), then, according to this morning's Standard Bank of London report, encountered the
seemingly ever-present and mysterious wave of selling from an unnamed source(s) which
effectively killed the upswing. Coincidentally, the stock market enjoyed a equally inexplicable and
mysterious wave of buying on the bad unemployment numbers. We will see if the dominant
downward stock market trend reasserts itself early this week as we rev-up for Thursday and
release of the important PPI numbers. Even some watered down numbers are sure to have their
effect with the current sensitivity to inflation and the upcoming May 16 Fed Open Market
Committee meeting.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here Monday.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.
TownCrier
From Sir Black Blade's "Gold investment in S. Africa" link
On the topic of restrictions upon secondary listings by foreign companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange discussed with respect to mining companies in this article, the author says, "At the end of the day it's no big deal for these companies not being listed here � let's face it, who wants to raise rands when you can pull in dollars on the Nasdaq or Toronto exchanges?"

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.... If we were to faily construct a list, surely it would look like this:

Gold
Dollars
Rands

Now imagine this quote being used in a better world: "At the end of the day it's no big deal for these national currencies to be poorly managed by their issuing and custodial governments - let's face it, who wants to raise dollars when you can pull in gold from Centennial at these prices?"
TownCrier
groan....
"faily" === should be ===>> "fairly"
VanRip
Another Online Exchange
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000508/news/current/aa.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhooSeems to be a trend. Would gold producers benefit from such an arrangement?

ATLANTA (CBS.MW) -- Alcoa, Reynolds and six other metal companies said Tuesday they're forming an online exchange dubbed MetalSpectrum to streamline the $200 billion
business.

Promoted as an independent online marketplace, MetalSpectrum will cater to manufacturers, distributors and customers starting in September.

The move follows similar exchanges underway by the food business and leading auto makers.

Taking part in the venture are Alcoa (AA: news, msgs), Allegheny Technologies (ATI: news, msgs), Kaiser Aluminum (KLU: news, msgs), North American Stainless, Olin (OLN: news, msgs), Reynolds Aluminum, (RLM: news, msgs), Thyssen and Vincent Metal Goods/Atlas Ideal Metals.

The MetalSpectrum initial partners say they'll trade aluminum, stainless steel, copper, brass, nickel alloys and titanium "at significant volumes."

"MetalSpectrum is about the specialty metals industry getting closer to its customers," Alcoa chief Alain J.P. Belda said in a statement. "The industry will benefit from the increased market reach and reduced costs that electronic commerce offers."

MetalSpectrum's board is made up of� the initial partners, with Boston Consulting Group acting as an adviser. Alcoa's Robert Wetherbee was named acting chief executive

MetalSpectrum plans to announce a technology partner within two weeks.

Shares of Alcoa fell 1 7/16 to 63 7/16 on Monday following the news. Allegheny's stock rose 11/16 to 24 7/8, Olin fell 1/4 to 17 1/2 and Reynolds dipped 1 5/16 to 65 3/16.
TownCrier
We all had a nice hike upon the Gold Trail during the weekend
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/Wanted to make sure you knew. The trail is still fresh...just follow the breadcrumbs at the link above to view the two new posts by Sir FOA.
TownCrier
It's a done deal
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=AORbosRTLRVUgU2VlBloomberg reports:
"Euro-bloc finance ministers
pledged to boost the flagging single currency by speeding up
budget cuts and economic reforms, while declining to publicly
endorse the policy of buying euros in the open market."

If you've been following our commentary, you know that we hold to the view that this "bird of a different feather" will not likely be seen to engage in forex interventions. To do so would undermine what seems to be the very premise of the euro currency system...one that respects the sentiment of the free market. Where this benefits gold owners is that such a free market for euros goes part and parcel with a free market in gold. Without such a gold market, there would be no center to the free-floating currency universe.

The EMU FinMins did more today than to vow more rapid fundamental reforms and to poo-poo currency intervention. They also acted to finalize the initiative that increases the ECB's allowable foreign exchange reserves to 100 billion euros, double the value provided under the Maastricht Treaty.

It will be interesting to see how they put this new allowance to their advantage, and whether any announcement regarding inclusion of gold as some portion of any new reserve subscription by EMCBs will wake up or shake up the market.
YGM
Did You Know......
Gold Paid for & Built the Smithsonian Institution????Well here's the rest of the story........


HeadlinesAdd to My Yahoo!Monday May 8 1:27 AM ET

James Smithson's Surprising Will

By LAWRENCE L. KNUTSON, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Englishman's gold that founded the Smithsonian Institution seemed at times like a castle in the air - illusive, vaporous, hard to hold on to.

John Quincy Adams said the whole project was as exasperating as trying to extract something of enduring value from the fangs of a rattlesnake.

Exasperating, but worth the effort. ``To furnish the means of acquiring knowledge is ... the greatest benefit that can be conferred upon mankind,'' the former president wrote.

�Speak your mindDiscuss this story with other people.
[Start a Conversation]
(Requires Yahoo! Messenger) The puzzle took more than a decade to unravel. In July 1835, the American envoy in London received a copy of an astounding will, written by James Smithson. It bequeathed an estate valued at a then-staggering $500,000 to the United States.

Smithson was the illegitimate son of an English duke and a scientific researcher of some repute. He never crossed the Atlantic, had no known ties to the United States and died in Genoa, Italy, in 1829. His money came from the estate of his wealthy mother.

Smithson's will, triggered because his nephew and first heir had died childless, directed that his estate be used ``to found at Washington, under the name of the Smithsonian Institution, an Establishment for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men.''

Rarely has a gift horse been examined so skeptically.

Congressmen argued there was nothing in the Constitution to permit taking such a gift. Some said democratic America should not be the steppingstone to immortality for any foreigner. Some called Smithson a ``whippersnapper vagabond'' acting out of ``posthumous vanity.'' Sen. John C. Calhoun of South Carolina thought it ``beneath the dignity of the United States to receive presents of this kind from anyone.''

But others said the nation should be honored that a native of a ``monarchial country'' should have made the United States the object of his benevolence.

Smithson found his champion in John Quincy Adams, who had served as the sixth president of the United States. By then a member of the House of Representatives, Adams persuaded Congress to accept Smithson's half-million dollars, a fortune in the late 1830s.

But the second set of questions proved more difficult: What on earth to do with all that money? What exactly did Smithson mean by ``increase and diffusion?'' And what kind of knowledge did he have in mind?

Smithson had not spelled it out. Lawmakers could only guess, and advance their own pet projects.

There were no lack of suggestions. Adams favored a national observatory, a ``lighthouse in the sky,'' to search out the secrets of the universe. Others wanted a national university, an agricultural school, a lecture bureau, an experimental farm, a publishing house for scientific tracts, a natural history museum, a chemical laboratory, a teachers college, a botanical garden, a library or a supply of inexpensive books for primary schools.

Adams opposed any use of the Smithson money for schools or teachers, saying American children should not be educated with ``foreign aid.''

He said he would rather see ``the whole money thrown into the Potomac'' than used in such a way.

Adams almost got his wish.
------------------------------------------
Smithson's estate had been converted into English gold coins, which were shipped to the United States in sacks, melted down and reminted into American $10 gold pieces. These were invested in bonds of two new states, Arkansas and Michigan.
------------------------------------------
It was a bad investment; the two states quickly defaulted on the bonds.

Some in Congress would have let the whole affair die at that point. Why should their constituents pay for the federal government's bad investments? they asked.

But others, including Sen. Jefferson Davis of Mississippi, said that having accepted Smithson's money, the United States now had a moral obligation to carry out his wishes.

The matter was settled by act of Congress in August 1846. The lost money was replenished by the federal Treasury. The Smithsonian Institution was established. It would include at first a museum for national collections, a library, a laboratory and an art gallery.

But the rest of its future was left open-ended. The institution itself would decide just how best to provide for the increase and diffusion of knowledge with a minimum of congressional intervention.

Adams had no doubt the Smithsonian had been set on the right path.

``To what higher or nobler object could this generous and splendid donation have been devoted?'' he asked.
USAGOLD
Advertising. . .
The three posts below will be removed. Advertising is strictly forbidden under the rules. Thank you for your co-operation.

I'm sure you fellows didn't mean any harm, but I get complaints almost immediately when someone puts up an ad.
ced_s
@Elevator Guy
So many people don't understand that Goldbugs are struggling to free PM's from their incessant manipulation. We also are acting on something out dated (principle, ethics and fair play). How many of us are furious about the lies and deceit peing pandered by "Our Government". Is this the government we voted for? Is this a measure of all of ur politicians?
I think not, we have been hoodwinked by Slick Willie, Rubin, Summers and Greenscam.
In our own way, we are protesting the guile of these persons who not only controll gold but also controll us. In lieu of a grassroots revolt at the polls we are voting for a "Free Market" in fact, not a fictitious market managed by the ESF and the megabanks with their billions and trillions of dollars. I wish to remain a citizen of the United States of America, not become a slave to the New World Order.
I am not a member of any of the Militia groups, and have no desire to be. I am simply a citizen who feels our right have a Representative Form of Government been usurped by the internationl banking sector and the wealthy. Thank God the Boy King's tenure in office is about over. Sometimes I think the only time he lies is when his lips are moving.
Elwood
Topaz (5/8/2000; 4:48:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 30108)

Topaz, when a currency devalues it's never a slow burn. Look at that charts of the Asian currencies against the dollar during the crisis in 1997. When it happens it's like falling off a cliff.

Trail Guide, I think it's starting to sink in at my house. The Euro is a fiat currency, but not like any other fiat currency today. The ECB doesn't deal in the sovereign debt of the EU nations. That cuts the link between the banks and the governments, rendering Fed-style inflation impossible, at least for as long as they can politically maintain that non-relationship. But many questions remain. These nations tax heavily everything that moves and much that doesn't. If a free reserve asset such as gold is allowed in such a system it will endanger that system of taxation, and result in either tighter controls or a freer system with fewer taxes. Given the socialist bent of these nations and the political base that maintains it, can it be done? Looks like their giving it a good college try.
Elwood
SAMCAM
question to you ORO and/or Trail Guide
ORO you once mentioned diversifying and holding some physical in other countries. FOA you more than likely have done just that already.

I have question: If you don't have a property in your name in any country US or overseas, WHERE IS THE BEST PLACE TO STORE ALL THAT PHYSICAL!

Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/
Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 8, 2000

Rates for Friday, May 5, 2000

Federal funds 5.94

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.97
10-year 6.51
20-year 6.61
30-year 6.20

right-side up spread FF vs long bond = +.26%
SHIFTY
Ponzi
Nasdaq 3,669.38 + Dow 10669.38 = 14,273.01 didvde by 2 = 7,136.50 Ponzi

Down 60.84 Ponzi Points !
MarkeTalk
Elian Gonzalez (Reprise)
I am sure everyone has an opinion about whether Elian should stay here or go back home. But did you hear the story about the Cuban "doctors" who were detained after they flew to Washington along with four of Elian's classmates? They were found to be carrying hallucinogenic drugs which were promptly removed from their persons before they were allowed entry. (They will be returned once they leave the country for Cuba.) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why they needed them. Let me guess: They wanted to party down with some Deadheads. Or perhaps Elian does not really want to go back home but needed some "persuasion." Now, this story tells me that our government is bending over backwards to please Fidel Castro. In my opinion, Elian is a done deal. He's on his way back home to Cuba. With or without the mind-altering drugs, Fidel has won this round courtesy of the Clinton administration. Maybe Bill will get paid in Cuban cigars for his cooperation. And aren't we supposed to be fighting a war on drugs? Then why not destroy the mind-altering agents as the cops do in other raids? Double standard here.
Farfel
GATA in Washington: HELP THEM!
If you believe that there is one scintilla of validity to the charges that GATA is making against the bullion banks, the US Treasury, etc., then get off your butts and do something about it now.

Fire a FAX/E-MAIL to a gold producer you are invested with and demand to know what action they are taking to support GATA. LET THEM ARRIVE TO AN AVALANCHE OF PROTESTS TOMORROW MORNING. If they are not doing anything tangible, if they are not using their clout to assist or their funds to make contributions, then let them have it! Tell them it is time to step down.

Fire off a letter or phone a politician you know (Democrat or Republican or Third Party) and tell them you want them to assist in setting up appointments for GATA execs in Washington. If they are reluctant or not interested, let them have it!

Get in touch with the CFTC and let them know your feelings in no uncertain terms.

The main thing is this: DO something tangible today or forever hold your tongue.

If you are not making some kind of tangible contribution, then you best never cry again about government subversion of the markets / civil liberties or Wall Street manipulation.

GATA makes their rounds tomorrow, and if you have not contributed at least 48 hours of your time in assisting them to bring transparency to these markets, then you are most likely a slacker, a weasel, and probably a precious metals short on top of it all.

Most importantly, IF YOU ARE A GOLD LONG AND FAIL TO SUPPORT GATA IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER, YOU DESERVE EVERY SINGLE PENNY OF LOSS YOU SUFFERED AND WILL SUFFER IN THIS MARKET!

Thanks

F*

ET
Farfel
Hey Farfel - I enjoy your stuff.

You wrote;

"Most importantly, IF YOU ARE A GOLD LONG AND FAIL TO SUPPORT GATA IN SOME
FORM OR ANOTHER, YOU DESERVE EVERY SINGLE PENNY OF LOSS YOU SUFFERED
AND WILL SUFFER IN THIS MARKET!"

I guess this means you think gold is going down in price. I'm not suffering any loss at all as I have as much gold as I had before.

GATA, bless their hearts, are fighting the paper battle. Many of us decided awhile back to fight this battle of wealth retention by buying up the physical. Gold's value will remain unchanged regardless of the price affixed in the paper market. Fundamentally, I view this market from the opposite side as GATA. They are worried about the price where I am concerned with the value. They are two entirely different things.

ET
JavaMan
ET, Farfel...
Interesting and valid positions, both of you, and I would like to mention a third. The fact of the matter is that the foxes are watching the chicken coop and GATA is screeming, to the foxes, that someone is messing with the chickens.

This country could not get a conviction in the impeachment of Clinton, not for lack of evidence, but because Congress and the people lacked the resolve to do so. Same thing applies regarding the efforts of GATA. Now, if the markets and the economy were to tank, that could change everything.
Trail Guide
Reply
Hello Topaz,
Thanks for reading and considering my offerings. Actually I don't expect or ask anyone to act or believe any of this. It's placed here to offer a view from another place and a future time. A way to see how some others interact with the ongoing money changes in our world today.

In your post:

---------Topaz (5/8/2000; 4:48:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 30108) On this Trail: "I'll tak the High Road and Ye'll tak the low road" and we'll both get to "Scotland" (eventually). {;>)----------

Topaz,

To comprehend Another's Thoughts is to understand that you and he are not on the same road! Indeed, most if not the majority of Western gold investors will find themselves in Scotland to only then know they lost a great deal by ending up there. Watching the current gold markets, accepting their pricing mechanisms and using today's paper vehicles to play this arena will land most traders in Scotland but unable to buy gold. The physical price will have ran far, far past
whatever leveraged gains they made.

It's easy to see the leveraged traders by reading their verbal trails. They are completely fixated on "wanting" our current arena to work for them. All of their understanding and drive is centered on using the various forms of paper gold. Yet, this entire infrastructure and most of the mine equity that's built upon it has from the beginning been just another currency the dollar governments uses to take "Western minds" away from buying real gold. You see my friend, physical gold is where the real leverage is and the dollar faction have know this all along.

The entire marketplace we call the gold market is all based on a working dollar world. Everything that's paper and called gold has it's roots deeply leveraged not in gold but the dollar return on gold. There is not a paper gold investment in the world today that has seen a gold spike like the one that is coming. Likewise no investor has ever held or seen how these paper markets can cope with just
such a move. None!

I submit to you and everyone that will consider that profits from paper in this move will pale in comparison to holding physical.

You write:
--------It is apparent you perceive the current pricing mechanism (spot- futures) will implode and the POG reduced accordingly until the "penny drops" ie: Paper and Physical will go their separate ways--- Ok so far?

------You came to this conclusion several months ago after "enlightenment" from ANOTHER source. (we all remember the fracas that erupted resulting in Sir Stranger's sin-binning) Since then, the possibility of an upside explosion in POG has been totally discounted.-----------

Topaz,
Nothing about this has been discounted in our paper or physical gold price. We stand where we did almost a year ago when we (both of us) delivered this message. I expected then and even more so now that a default is near. The WA was the concrete fact that placed us "on the road" to super gold! It is indeed coming and will arrive in our time.

The price move (spike) last Sept. was certainly not anything close to the lock up move ahead. When the season is right and motivations strong enough: oil will begin it's move for the Euro, the dollar will begin it's crisis and our paper gold markets will completely fail from lack of bullion.

Your words:
------For the benefit of those who still cling to the hope of a steady rise in the price, can you offer your thoughts on what is now a contrary alternative to your scenario? Just for the record I would like to cite the reason I consider the Status-quo will be maintained throughout this transition:- Accepting that Au is the centre of the Fiscal Universe and as such, (has/is/) will be manipulated by
opposing interests, is it not to the ultimate benefit of both sides to effect a controlled burn to the upside thus not jeopardizing the perception of Fiat currencies as a whole? (Similar to a nuclear standoff- where no-one wins if all the cards are played) I mean to say- If all holders of paper Au find themselves getting shafted, it may well have the effect that these large players/ countries etc will
even turn away from all forms of Fiat settlement and go straight to Metal which is in no-ones interests -No? Whereas, a steadily rising price (in fits and starts) can be (once again) perceived as the inflation indicator it is. The outcome would be the same in the end--Yes? I hope this sufficiently explains my thinking and look forward to your comments.-------------

Topaz,

There is no contrary alternative! The game at play has been "in play" for some time and processed through several age groups. The American dollar has reached the end of it's ability to function as a world reserve currency. It's debt load has aged it past it's useful timeline. From where I consider the world, this is obvious and has been for a number of years.

Because gold has been "the world tool" that all used to kept our dollar alive for these last days, it will be the first item to fall away from being a dollar support. This paper gold tool will fail as the dollar transition proceeds. It will fail because it's illusion will be seen through physical default. Today, it's only a matter of time. This default will break the paper gold support tool and shut down
virtually all dollar gold markets.

Once this breaks, there will be no "Western Investors" with a mindset to any longer buy paper gold. Having been badly burned and watching physical gold soar, it will be a long, long time before anyone is ever again "sold" on the idea of "gold substitute holdings". Not even gold in the ground
will bring them back. New taxes will make gold mining nothing more than what it always was, a business.

The Euro / BIS have positioned their official policy and reserve holdings to benefit strongly from a surge in value of "free gold". Contrary to your thoughts, they will welcome this change, promote it and utilize it's wealth building perception for public gain. Just as we have talked here so often: for better or worse, digital Euros and super "free gold" will set the pace in Euroland and the world.

The manipulations of gold you speak of are "old stuff" and are today a "dying process" at the hands of the BIS. I think many OLD GOLD bugs will find themselves "broken down" on the side of the road as events surge past their backward looking understanding. The road where they stall will be the one that leads to your Scotland.

The future my friend is before us and those that can see it will be on a different trail. They will be "on the road with Free Gold"! The Gold Trail we walk today starts far in our past and has become a direction to a new future. Walk it with me and see the world in a new light.


Thank you

Trail Guide


schippi
XAU Vs FSAGX Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/xaugld3mth.gifWeak hands sold today, tomorrow Gold moves Up!
Elwood
Trail Guide (05/08/00; 18:58:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30138)

"The Euro / BIS have positioned their official policy and reserve holdings to benefit strongly from a surge in value of "free gold"."

This goes to timing of the surge in gold's price. I have an idea that follows from our GoldTango analysis. The Euro/BIS folks would rather not see the gold price run until they've collected all they believe they can of their outstanding gold loans. Once their gold loans have been collected or defaulted that's when, IMO, they'll "make their move."

To do so beforehand would jeopardize both the dollar reserves they hold now and those outstanding gold loans. We all know what will happen once they start trying to exchange their dollar reserves for metal. What else could they ever exchange those reserves for?

Additionally, the American administration has GOT to know they're on the rocks. Why don't they default now, and get it over with? Why do they keep delivering their (our?) gold into a dead system? Could it be the election?
SteveH
FOA says weeks...
"The dollar faction is having a hard time keeping paper gold under $280. Now that the world has seen how the WA is placing Swiss Euro Gold, the paper markets should start to discount physical. I think weeks are all the time the dollar faction has left before things begin to change!"










ET
J-Man

Hey JavaMan - I think the chickens are long gone! They're lording over a empty coop.

GATA's efforts are to be applauded but even best case will only expose what we already know - the money isn't backed by anything tangible like gold. I'm not sure that GATA convincing a public which should know better, will have much significance in the whole scheme of things. The public is a slave to debt and therefore is not in any position to argue the facts of the matter. The public does not want hard money as they are borrowed to the max. No Congress will advocate sound money.

ET
lamprey_65
Why GATA's Congressional Testimony is Important
Yes, I agree...the foxes watching the hen house, however...when the s*** hits the fan, they won't be able to say they didn't know of the problem.
Chris Powell
GATA makes its case to Congress this week
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/451?GATA's delegation arrives in Washington
on Tuesday and has appointments with
members of Congress and their staffs
on Wednesday.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Elwood
SteveH (05/08/00; 21:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 30141)

Steve,
I think we're talking about 3 entities (1) Euro, (2) Dollar, (3) Market. Yes, the market will see that the Swiss metal isn't showing up so they'll pressure the price upward to meet their commitments. We're seeing that now. But the moonshot will require someone to "make their move." I see the Euro banks bringing their reserves into the game as the main engines, then the Arabs will supply the solid rocket boosters. However, it doesn't make sense for them to light the fires until they're convinced that no more metal will be delivered against those outstanding loans. As long as the Dollar forces keep fueling the tanks, why take off too soon?
Elwood
Elwood
Forgot to mention...
We PGAs are the cargo. I trust everyone has their moonboots strapped on. We can continue our walk from the Sea of Tranquility. (smile)
JA
Stranger and JavaMan
Thanks for responding to my question on Alan Greenspan's remarks. Actually my boss asked me what I thought Greenspan was trying to say and I said I didn't know but there were some fairly bright people at this gold site I occasionally frequent and I would attempt to elicit some opinions.

Stranger

Things are well with me, thanks for asking. I have actually been down in your part of the country twice in the last month. Once to attend my daughters graduation from college and once on business. I had a little time to walk around down town Salt Lake prior to my flight back, the skyline is changing at a rapid pace. I even took the opportunity to ride the UTA train in the free zone. I guess they are still preparing for the Olympics, Little America building a 1000 room hotel?

On another note in support of your inflation scenario. I attended a conference on prescription drug management. Prescription drug costs are predicted to go up 17% this year.

JavaMan

On the name change.
While I realize people from all walks of life own Harley's including many executives, I still have fixated in my mind a "Hell's Angels" type with the tattoos and long hair. In reading your contributions, I always thought your powers of discernment were much too keen for the visual image my mind presents with the Harley Davidson moniker. Your name change will relieve my mind of this incongruent dilemma.
Simply Me
Town Crier's Exercise; and Java Man
To Town Crier----
RE: TC's Exercise.
I can see where buying the June "puts" at approx. $240 is like saying, "There'll be a big bargain basement sale on gold in June."...thereby putting downward pressure on today's physical gold prices. Who would buy hamburger today at $3/lb when they have a reasonable expectation that it will go on sale for $1/lb next week. Indeed, if hamburger is going down to $1/lb. But since one must pay for the "puts", one loses one's money when it's rollover time, right?...and spend even more money when buying those August "puts".

There're only two reasons to throw that money away. One reason might be that you are buying bargain basement priced
physical gold with both hands while you've got the price depressed because you know that once you take the pressure
off, you will not only recoup your losses but make a huge profit.

The second reason might be that your money has an inverse value to the price of gold. The cheaper the gold, the more
valuable your money is. Therefore throwing a portion of it away to keep the price of gold down, makes the money you
have left that much more valuable.

Thanks for your time and thought.

To Java Man----
From JavaMan (05/06/00; 21:54:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 30073)
"B.F. Skinner discovered that reinforcement of a behavior "randomly" was a much more powerful form of behavioral
conditioning and, consequently, much more difficult to extinguish. So we come full circle to gambling which is random reinforcement at its finest and I give you the stock market which, today, is gambling at its finest.

This gives a whole new insight into the "buy on the dip" mentality. Based on the information above, I wouldn't be
surprised to see people buying into this market all the way to the bottom...looking, hoping, knowing, there is another
sugar pellet on the next press of the lever."

From simply me: So you see it, too! Skinner's Intermittant Reinforcement produces a learned behavior that will
keep repeating itself LONG after the reinforcement is gone. Yep, I think today's stock buyers are thoroughly trained.
It will be interesting to see how long the training lasts. What truly sets man apart from the beasts?

Do you also see the "Monkey Trap" in today's stock market? In the Monkey Trap, some tastey fruit is put in a hole in
a tree. The hole is big enough for the monkey to put his empty hand in, but not to pull his closed fist full of fruit
out. The monkey who succumbs to the temptation will not let go of the fruit, even when it can clearly see the hunter
coming up to grab it. An apt description of buy-and-hold investors who've been watching what they think of as a
savings account grow for years and won't get out even when they see the Bear market coming to wipe it out. There are
buy-and-hold investment counselors who think that all a Bear market means is that it'll take a little longer for the
DOW to hit 20000! So many people think they cannot loose if they hold their stocks long enough.

Now I ask myself: Now that I've got this shiny gold stuff in my hand, will I be smart enough to know when it's time
to let go of some? Guess I'm just as greedy as the next monkey.

simply meView Yesterday's Discussion.

Simply Me
TC...Unfinished sentence
Sorry. That "Indeed, if hamburger is going down to $1/lb." was a piece of a tangential thought that I meant to delete.
From any point in this discussion, it's so easy to fly off in a hundred directions!
Thanks for your sharing your knowledge. Your insights and interpretations have, more than once, helped lead me to the light when I got stuck in one of Oro's cavernous thoughts or in Greenspan's twists and turns.

simply me
TownCrier
Simply Me, thanks for the follow up to last week's challenge
We had asked the forum how one might go about depressing the price of gold if they had ample quantities of currency but absolutely no direct or indirect access to gold.

Let me try to "think out loud" regarding the strategy you proposed.

The way I see it, buying a large quantity of June put options at a $240 strike price would have an immediate effect of causing upward pressure the market price for these same puts.

To be sure that everyone is clear on the ins and outs of these put options being discussed, the payment of a premium to buy one such put gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying futures contract at $240.

Because these puts do not directly involve the buying or selling of futures contracts, the only way the contract price of gold will move is then if the participants in the contract market (futures, not options) are inclined to think that these put buyers know something that nobody else knows, and are thereby inspired to sell futures contracts themselves. I am skeptical that such a position would foster a "reasonable expectation" that the price of gold was truly heading lower, as you've suggested with your hamburger example. There is certainly a chance that the futures players would look at this large put option position and simply scratch their heads at the curiosity, but would not respond with futures sales.

Given your quantity of cash, wouldn't it be more of a "sure thing" to affect the gold price by aggressively taking the sell side (short) of the June futures contracts? After all, the quoted price of June gold is based upon the market forces of supply and demand among the buyers and sellers of these contracts. With your supply of cash, you can easily afford to offer two contracts to sell for every one COMEX market offer to buy. The price would surely fall from your own effort.

Having no access to gold (as stated in our premise), your requirement would be to close out these positions through the purchase of offsetting contracts at any point prior to the arrival of the June contract delivery window on the last day of May. You might be inclined to agree that since you have effectively taken the longs into losing positions through lower prices, the market sentiment would be low enough to make it relatively easy for you to buy the offsetting contracts without much fear of jacking the price back to your starting levels.

And further, at this point you agressively begin to sell August into the ground. As I suggested last week, because August would then take over as the most active month, any arbitrage activity between the expiring June month and August would be weighted toward the lower August prices.

Such determined action by "big money" shorts could ensure that the COMEX prices continue to fall, and futher, that their short positions would actually be generating currency revenue for them (assuming no broker fees).

Knowing that these prices are an abomination, and that the futures price can be driven down while giving no warning signs of concurrent physical market exhaustion as overseas physical demand for the real metal continues to rise with their strengthening economies and better prices, we here in The Tower continue to aggressively acquire real gold with our available private funds. There may simply be no advanced warning when the significant break is about to occur. And even as real gold comes under explosive demand due to foreseeable market conditions, still, there is no limit to the number of futures contracts that could continue to be sold into oblivion faster than counterparties are willing to take long postions in these dubious or discredited abundant paper contracts in the face of scarce metal supply reaching the real market and rising real gold prices.

As to WHY various entities may be inspired to engage in such activities, you have certainly identied two of several good reasons or incentives.

Bottom line: continue to take advantage of access to this world-class wealth asset at these fire-sale prices. All things considered, the slow burn could go "nuclear" at any unforseeable moment in time. Such is the nature of gold in a world of hyper-responsive cybernetic mega-currencies.
Topaz
Trail Guide- Elwood.

T.G:
Message received ---- Understanding some way off, but I'm getting there.
Thank you once again.

Elwood:
The glaring difference ($US / pretty well anything else) is that others are NOT the accepted form of reserve currency for the Planet.
Not only is the Dollar held in high esteem in its country of origin but all over the world. (some would say higher)
Ok- you may say it's only perception but that same perception is backed with a lot of clout. Perhaps you can identify an historical example where such a strongly "perceived" currency did the proverbial "Swan-Dive" as is predicted by the Good souls here!

(Just reading the above- sounds a bit abrasive. I assure you Sir, it's not meant to��.. Simply curious!!)
TownCrier
An important((?) you decide) repost...because Friday evening was probably a poor time period to submit this
(Not exactly prime-time for traffic)It seems to us here in The Tower that someone might surely want to take this commentary for a test drive, and kick the tires a time or two...especially in light of the various insightful and helpful commentaries offered over the weekend by the likes of FOA/Trail Guide, ORO, Canuck, among others. (Splendid on confirming the breakthrough in March, ORO. Thanks for your reply.)

Is anyone else gaining the sense that no single internationally identifiable entity will step such that they may be perceived as THE ONE that pulled the trigger on what looks to be an inevitable event? There seems to be very little reason to buy time for any productive purpse now that we have reached this point in time. Such things are best left to "nameless and blameless" market forces in due time.

With that, Friday's evening comments now follow...(along with this belated thanks to Sir Trail Guide/FOA for introducing us all a great many weeks ago to the suitable term "free gold", as I have made liberal use of it in this post).

TownCrier (5/5/2000; 21:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30028)
Picking up on two brief comments we made yesterday from The Tower
From <>:
<+
As we suggested days ago, don't look for forex intervention from the ECB, unless it is their only "politically correct" avenue to rid themselves delicately of unwanted foreign currency assets. To this Crier's eyes, when you have gold reserves being regularly marked to market in a "free gold" climate, there is simply no reason to maintain foreign currency assets beyond what is convenient for the purpose of short-term international settlements with those specific nations.>>

Additional note that I should have stated at the time of this original post: Evidence points to these days as the infancy of a "free gold" climate, with obvious incentives in place for the ECB (among others) to see it through. Gold will truly be set free to shine when it breaks the shackles of the derivatives markets and when the metal is also made immune to the effects of artificial supply inflation at the hands of the banking sector's lending operations. Such lending seemingly puts the "funds" into two hands at once (the owner of the original deposit who is earning interest on the deal, and the borrower). This "supply inflation" depresses the value of gold in the same fundamental manner as lending also inflates the dollar (or other currency) and erodes its value over time. Evidence of the turnaround and birth of "free gold", you ask? The Washington agreement, and the IMF gold revaluations.

<>

Additional note: as stated before, the UK auctions were surely in reaction to stress in the bullion banking business...an imminent run on the banks, in all likelihood, by the owners of the multiple pockets holding claim on the same gold (as described above). Why do I suggest the Swiss gold could be "sold" (allocated) in one fell swoop? Because all euroland gold "sales" within the Washinton Agreement are very likely a disguise for "lender of last resort" operations to mollify those many nervous "pockets" who are sharing the same small gold on account. Essentially, that entire quantity of gold is already "spoken for." Alternatively, this WA supply of gold out of euroland could also in part be seen as a regulating operation...similar to when the treasury buys back in its bonds prior to maturity.
+
It is perhaps like this, in either case. The reason the same small gold is in multiple pockets is because it has been put on deposit for interest, and lent out to borrowers for the purpose of earning interest. As in normal banking operations with cash, how many times can you imagine the same gold to be put on deposit by its new owner, only to be lent out again, and again? These gold loans are the assets of the bullion banks. Back to that in a moment.
+
Under current market forces, gold today is perceived to have a low value, near 300 in either euros or dollars. Let there be no doubt that gold is held by strong hands not for its "value" today, but for its value "tomorrow". I hope by now all of you have come up to speed on the Fed's operations to add reserves to the banking system through such things as repurchase agreements or coupon passes. Through repurchase agreements, the Fed provides a loan of funds to the underlings of the banking system against the collateral of these banks' assets. Through coupon passes, the Fed provides permanent funds through the outright purchase of these banks' assets (i.e., U.S. Treasuries.) But do not worry overmuch for the "poor Fed" who "sold" (allocated) its "precious funds" (i.e. dollars) to the banking system in exchange for these assets. As these assets (interest bearing loans, bonds, etc.) reach maturity, the Fed will thereby regain these "precious funds" that it originally parted company with, plus the "extra value" of interest. And why is the Fed adding these reserves? Partly because those with funds on deposit are pulling them out.

Must I now complete the parallel to the Fed's operations in terms of the Euroland gold allocations via the Washington Agreement? I hope it is already growing clear. Wouldn't you agree that it is rather fatuous to think that the euroland central banks would be so dull-witted as to part with gold in exchange for nothing more than the dollar-equivalent as the market currently perceives? Would you be more comfortable thinking that the central banks are getting in return for this gold...a simple cash payment, or ownership of the loan asset that will theoretically upon maturity repay the gold, plus interest? Again, strong hands hold gold not for today's value, but for tomorrow's value.

Please think back to the Dutch sales. Regardless of the market price at the time or the tonnage allocated through the Bank for International Settlements, the book value reported by the ECB's weekly balance sheet was always based upon the ECB's official gold valuation for that quarter. When you are holding an asset that is a gold-denominated loan, how else would you show it's value on your books?

Quick review: Current perceptions of gold's value is low. "Free gold" is in its infancy. Strong hands hold gold for "tomorrow". Can you now imagine the central banks who are supporting the tenets of "free gold" would keep themselves in a position for the return of their gold assets at some point "tomorrow"? As the many nervous "pockets" sharing the same small gold account sees it, the central banks will have much better luck dictating the eventual repayment of these gold loans in time than they would as "lowly bullion bank depositors" at the mercy of the bullion banks' future viability as "supply deflation" sets in from the eventual phaseout of gold lending. Time is on the Central Banks side, not to mention the ability to tap into national legislative power to apply heavy mineral taxes to gold mines. And ultimately, should a number of the gold loan assets now held by the CB's in place of their physical gold assets actuall fall into default, just imagine what an enhancement that is to the currency value of "free gold". Where these gold-denominated assets may be forced to settle in cash, you can imagine what a huge return will be realized at that time, compared to the rather meagre cash value they "appear" to be getting with their "sales" today. Truly, if all gold doesn't return, it would nonetheless be as though they sold at the top. And better still for the future of "free gold", this same gold would then remain in private hands.

And lastly, here is a brief look again a part from the earlier discussion of gold market pricing where futures are involved:
<>:
<*snap* it's all over.
Enough said.>>
Indeed. Enough said.
------------------------------
Should events bear out this scenario, what would be the personal reactions/emotions at that time of the many individual thinkers who gather here; and further, what would you each expect to be the socio-political fallout on both the domestic and international scene?
Henri
Footsteps of paper giants /TC Exercise/Simply Me
An inexhaustable supply of currency but no direct access to gold. Hmmm.

OK the the futures markets are the obvious starting place, but you cannot sell gold that you can't deliver for very long before you lose your credibility and your accounts are closed. For the kind of volume in futures needed to pull off the depression of gold long term you need one thing. Credibility.

So first you have to have unlimited credit for the commodity you seek to sell and what better way to do that then to own a bullion bank. There on deposit you have "OPG's" (Other peoples gold) which you pay a fee to lease or borrow at the going rate (you don't really care what that rate is as long as it is in currency and not in gold...unless of course you had no intention of ever buying back the gold you leased even at lower prices...then you wouldn't care if the lease payments were in gold or not as long as they were not due "up front"). Then you have to buy the international media and spread anti-gold propaganda throughout the world. Create the illusion that there is SO much gold sloshing around out there that its price (in currency) surely should not be as high as it is today. Then you must corner the supply of new gold so that it can be made "larger than life". That is get all the future production of all mines and sell it now before the price falls further. The miners jump on your ship because you are saving them.

Then when you have credibility and the press in your pocket, you drive down the price of the futures in the way that TC has pointed out. By selling futures contracts which drive the physical price of gold down. Down down down, as the game advances you extend your leases or borrowing by continuing to pay leasing fees and keeping your "letters of credit" current. Buy back the sold positions at profit roll the profit into leasing or borrowing more gold to build the illusion of an avalaching slide in gold price (more and more gold being sold). Get the press to point out how overvalued gold is in todays world and panic big holders of gold who's eyes are focused on "investments" that create more currency in the form of "interest". They see that their gold just sits there doing nothing and falling in price toward where they "purchased" it plus holding (security) "costs" and they are convinced that they should take "profits" before it falls further in price. The profits they are told, can be used to fund more "growing investments". The foolish begin to unload real gold which you have to buy to cover the leases that won't renew.

Soon you need really big leases to maintain the reality that gold currency price is falling. You and the big players that are lending know that you are playing right into their hands. Now you know that there is not enough gold in the world to ever pay back all the leases you have and so you become even more aggressive in trying to shake loose some more gold.

One way to reduce your carrying costs in selling futures is to buy calls that "hedge" your position. This reduces your callable margin and limits your exposure to any sudden upside moves in the price of gold. So the "footsteps of the paper giants are written in the purchase of calls. You convince the miners that they can make more currency by writing calls (which you buy from them) using the proceeds to buy puts. This helps them because they see that with falling prices they get not only the "high" price you paid for future production, but also a bonus profit as the POG falls when they cash in their puts for more currency than they paid for them. The calls always expire worthless so its free money they use to buy the puts. Why not sell two calls for every put you buy and make even more money? The miers think wow who are the idiots who think the price of gold is going to go up? They tell their friends how they are making more money playing the bullion bankers game than they are mining gold. Their friends start playing the game to. What fun lots of calls on the market the price gets really cheap to buy them.

Ught Oh, the guys you are into for all the leased/borrowed gold start to get antsy about ever getting their gold back. They are using your currency now to buy the cheaper gold futures contracts and Argh!!! taking delivery!

So you paid them to let you borrow their gold they lent it to you for so long that they can now buy it with your money at the cheaper price. They have their gold back at your expense ...AND THEY STILL THINK THAT YOU OWE THEM THE GOLD!
HOW RUDE! It'll be a cold day in hell before they see any gold returned from you. Besdies there is not enough gold in the world to cover their lendings and they should have known that. It will be easy to convince any court of contract law that the day they bought their own gold back, they were obviously aware that there was not enough gold out there to cover the borrowings. They must have "colluded" to pinch the borrower. knowing full well that he could not repay. Then they raise the lease rates. Why this is extortion. The borrowers should be compensated handsomely for having been so used. Those gnomes should pay us IN GOLD for having allowed them to profit so greatly in our currency.

:-)
Canuck
@ T.C.
Thanks for noticing my post on Sunday (30098); I am beginning to see the picture.


Thanks to you and other 'guns' I hope to escape the wrath of the dollar through accumulation of 'VALUE' assets.

My Canadian 'loonie' has dropped a couple cents on the US$ over the last week or so. Gold has therefore shot up in terms of CDN$. It is amazing to see the currency/gold relationship when it's happening in your backyard.

I hope our friends (US & CDN) are ready for the currency war
when it arrives on our respective doorsteps. It is easy for the 'market mongers' to slander gold when the dollar is on it's way up. What will they do when the dollar is in the way down?

Canuck

Gold ....Currency hedge #1
Henri
Why does BIS mark the dollar price of gold at $208
The gold payments defaulted on in 1970's were valued at $42/troy. That gold is still "owed" them. $208/troy is the price they feel gold should be available to them. Hmmm..$208 +$42=$250/troy...the bottom of the dollar price discovery structure. Coincidence?

If it were marked higher than market, it would undermine the credibility of BIS. Long a pariah of the western accounting (imagine...thinking debt accounts should actually have offsetting assets to "balance" them)the BIS has often taken criticism for its gold backed "agenda".

Since its inception, BIS has now accumulated enough assets in its own account to settle the outstanding 75% gold value of its shareholders. Will it? Not likely. Will it now,at this point in time ever need to make a call out for the remaining 75% to validate its credibility. Not likely. It now seems to be making its move to assert itself. Coincidence?
Simply Me
Town Crier's Exercise
I wish I could put little emoticons in these posts! Thanks, TC. I see I've been confused about a very fundamental point. I thought a put was the sell side of a futures contract! I'm still fuzzy about the difference, so I'll go back and re-read your posts this morning.
Glad I stayed up late (early) enough to see your answer.
G'nite all!
Pleasant day,
simply me
Trail Guide
Comment
Elwood (05/08/00; 20:22:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 30140)
Trail Guide (05/08/00; 18:58:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30138)
Elwood (05/08/00; 21:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 30145)
SteveH (05/08/00; 21:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 30141)
SteveH (05/08/00; 21:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 30141)


Elwood, SteveH,

Hello, both of you.

This placement of Swiss gold was the first "real obvious" indication to the markets of what the WA is all about. Because these sales are the bulk of physical entering the markets during the next 5 years, something has to give as it is diverted into BIS accounts. Remember, I touched on this point on the Trail (when?): the WA did not address any means of covering existing contracts while still endorsing and maintaining their gross level outstanding! Most everyone completely missed the fact that this places "physical coverage" squarely on the back of the US if the paper markets are to be maintained. No one saw this as an issue because they assumed the Swiss gold was for coverage.
It's not!

I know The Golden Sextant is following that line of Swiss gold filling Euro loans. The problem is that it's not. They feel comfortable letting the dollar faction figure it out themselves. Euro Zone banks know that the entire Gold arena will shut down once this US supply line is cut off. They are
not so dumb as to fill their paper with physical when the rest of the world is force settling in cash. They will not " blanket" cover all loans. Just the important ones vital to oil supply. This is the real leverage that will bring on Oil for Euros! Get the picture!

Elwood, I agree that everyone is still trying to milk whatever gold out of the system they can get. This was a driving factor for allowing the US to "save some face" by forcing oil prices down some. Onec the gold flow stops (and it may be right now) oil ril rise fast and furious!

SteveH's repost of my "weeks" timeline is on track. Untapped official gold is running out and unless someone rolls over a huge paper commitment the game begins "real soon". We watch!

Trail Guide


Black Blade
Morning Wakeup Call!
Source: Bridge NewsAsia Precious Metals Review: Physical buying underpins gold

Tokyo--May 9--Spot gold was underpinned by light buying from physical dealers in sluggish Asian trade Tuesday, dealers said. Platinum edged firmer from overnight late U.S. market levels while players were hesitant to open positions on lack of fresh incentives, they said. (Story .2200)

Black Blade: Not much happening overnight. The calm before the storm?
ss of nep
Georgia; USA : Has an interesting monument ?
http://www.radioliberty.com/stones.htm

Buying gold all the way down


Leigh
Trail Guide, Elwood, SteveH
Wow! Great questions, Elwood! I kept waking up last night and logging on just to see if Trail Guide had answered yet. Right now I have the weirdest feeling -- economic doomsday is right at our doorstep, yet everything is going on as usual, gold is still readily available at a cheap price, and not one person in five hundred would believe it.

Is anyone else besides me having trouble getting onto Kitco?

ss: The "Georgia Stonehedge" ain't going to be one of our vacation stops this summer, I can assure you! I always wonder, when I read about social planners who want to reduce the world's population so drastically, which of us are scheduled to live and which are scheduled to die.
Leigh
Black Blade
Thank you for your Morning Wakeup Calls! I really missed SteveH's early-morning spot gold postings, and you've filled the void beautifully.
SteveH
Convergence
Let's step back and look at the big picture for a moment, shall we?

-- Gata going to Washington with big ad ready to roll next week telling Congress..."you have been told, if you choose to do nothing, it will be there for all to see you knew but failed to act."

-- Elections arriving in November. Dems. seriously want to maintain best-case economy through election. Bush-Gore neck and neck, but Rep. have ace-in-hole to push economy into recession prior to November -- the gold-shortages and manipulation debacle.

-- J.P. Morgan assuming much of the paper-gold responsibilities. Why?

-- Suisse Gold sales through BIS.

-- XAU ready for launch with serious accumulation in major unhedged golds. Same with JGOL.

-- DOW/NASDAQ in preliminary and initial stages of serious bear market, where buying the dip will finally burn the majority who used this seemingly faultless tactic.

-- Continuing positive news quips on gold and gold stocks as an inflation hedge.

-- The highest unemployment in 30 years. 2000 minus 30 = 1970. Equivalent of being with a year of closing the dollar gold window by Nixon, which set off the gold rally in the 70's over a 10 year period.

-- Fears of inflation continue to plague the US.

-- Dollar at a stronger than normal high.

-- Trade deficit at an all-time high and mounting daily.

-- Interest rate hike fears to the tune of 50 basis points, which sets an expectation that if it is less, the markets will rally, if it is 50 basis points it will trade sideways.

-- Cisco credibility knocked yesterday by major media article discussing accounting and other peculiarities.

-- Microsoft profitability in question due to not having stock option profits in near to medium term. The longer this happens,the quicker the spiral.

-- Physical gold in its highest demand, paper gold in its lowest.

-- Record stock-market volitility with large swings making it impracticle to use margin debt for fear of margin calls.

-- Continued reliance of high tech majors as the recommendation to do well in the markets into the futures. These stocks' PE's are all out-of-line with historical standards.

-- Euro unwillingness to intervene in FOREX markets, allowing their currency to float freely.

-- Bond market acting in ways that are contrary to logic and a continuing propensity to rising yields and reverse yield curves.

Events are unfolding at an ever increasing rate, which spells trouble for the dollar and soon.
JavaMan
(No Subject)
ET, on your msg# 30142...my thoughts exactly!

Lamprey, your msg# 30143...good point. One would think / hope these noble efforts by GATA would close the back door. It will serve as an interesting object lesson for all of us to see what follows "when the s*** hits the fan, they won't be able to say they didn't know of the problem." I can see it now...in true Clintonese "what do you mean by s*** ?"

JA, your msg# 30147...yes, that is not an uncommon perception. The history of the company and its following is quite interesting. The company got its first boost after the war when the air force pilots, experiencing "cold turkey withdraw" from the freedom and exhilaration of combat flying found that riding the motorcycle was the next best thing. The fashion of leather clothes started with the flight jackets the pilots had. Some of these guys were "bad boys" and slowly it evolved into the perception that only gangsters rode Harleys. This image was reinforced by the movies. While it is true that there are some less savory types that ride, the current reality is that the bikes are simply too expensive for low income people, so HD has targeted and markets to the professional. Ironically, some of these professionals who have always (mostly) lived the straight and narrow life of responsibility occasionally wondering what it would have been like to "take the other road" see the HD as a means to live out their fantasy vicariously. The best of both worlds! (smile) After placing the add in the paper, I got phone calls from an oral surgeon, and a gentleman who owned a successful home inspection business.

Simply Me, your msg# 30148...you said "What truly sets man apart from the beasts?" Too often the answer is "nothing". But the Existentialist school of thought in psychology is directly opposed to Skinner and maintains that we are NOT products of our reinforcement history, i.e. man is free to choose at any time, no, MUST choose, in order to be authentic and there are documented cases of incredible success stories they have had curing very sick people to support their approach. I think the term "Authentic" applies nicely to gold and is, somehow, synonymous with it.
ss of nep
? which of us are scheduled to live and which are scheduled to die ?


Well, I think it depends weather your on the Green, Red or Blue list.

Leigh
ss of nep
What do the colors mean? How can you know which list you're on?
ss of nep
Color codes

Green - you can be Re-Educated, to serve in your new position as slave.

Red - you are beyond Re-education and will be done away with, but offer no current threat.

Blue - you are beyond Re-education and will be dispoded of immediately.


( I may have the Reds and the Blues backward ).


JavaMan
Leigh...
Perhaps Sir ss should have put a "(smile)" at the end of his last post.
ss of nep
dispoded should be disposed



ss of nep
Always keep smiling.



Henri
Steve H RE:Convergence
The question
-- J.P. Morgan assuming much of the paper-gold responsibilities. Why?

What I think to be the answer

They drew the short straw?


Henri
Which list?
I hope I'm not on the green list!

hmmm. Although being there would not be so bad as a cover if you knew you were not enslaved in fact.

How much gold did the Swiss say they had from people who believed having it in a safe place was a good idea?

In this case "Better red than dead" doesn't carry much weight.
Leigh
Henri, ss of nep
I actually don't care which list I'm on. Life is short, and there's a better world than this one. I'll die smiling, knowing they'll never, never find my gold!
Perplexed
Empire
Holtzman #29923

Thank you for the desertation on Empire. I too believe that government, as we know it,will become superfluous, beginning in the not too distant future, say 10 years or less. But the United States empire? Hardly. Most of our people had strongly opposed getting involved in another European war, and at its end could not wait to get on with our lives. From our beginning, neither our people nor our leaders have ever desired Empire. After World War II , had we been so inclined, it was ours for the taking. We were the only nation to come out of the war stronger than when we went into it. We had a finely honed manufacturing industry, an abundance of oil, every raw material needed for self
sufficiency, some of the best land and climate in the world, the strongest military machine the world had ever seen, and sole possession of a doomday weapon, yet we virtually disarmed. Had the politicians not prevailed, all our troups would have returned from Europe immediately. Not only had we lost many sons and fathers fighting a war on
foreign soil, but had furnished many weapons, much equipment, and financing in the form of loans. The American citizens, thru taxation, continued to furnish financing for the post war recovery, some in the form of additonal loans, and more in foreign aid. We paid rent on the facilities, and hired local civilians to fill many jobs, and still do. The United States soldiers, although an occupying army, while associating with the local population purported themselves with dignity and honor, the G.I was liked rather than feared, and spent millions of dollars per year in the local economy. We opened our markets to world trade, invariably on terms detrimental to our own industry and farmers. We used our economic and military might not to enslave but to free, not to keep foreign economies down, but to build them up. Did we benefit? Immensly, along with the rest of the world. Given the foregoing circumstances, in 1971, when the run was made on our gold reserves and the gold window was closed, although twenty-five 25 years had transpired, none of these European nations had paid even the interest on the debt. Many American citizens, my father included, considered this blatant profiteering the ultimate insult, and Charles De Gauls popularity plummeted. The debts were eventually written off.
I was stationed in Germany in the mid 50s, and I, like many Americans just took the freedom into which I was born for granted. An American soldier in uniform traveling on the railroads, and watching as peoples luggage was searched when we crossed from the border of one nation to the next while I was exempted, really opened my eyes. If I was a sleep I wasn't even awakened. Just like traveling in the USA
Today I still stand in awe and thanksgiving that I was privileged to have been born in the nation which has changed the course of the world for the better, in the time frame of my adult life.

webtex
USAGOLD
Today's Report: All Quiet Ahead of PPI Numbers and Upcoming Fed Conclave
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/9/00 Indications
�Current
�Change
Gold June Comex
277.40
-0.20
Silver July Comex
5.10
+3.00
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
93~06
+0~10
Dollar Index June NYBOT
111.12
-0.20

Market Report (5/9/00): Gold drifted sideways in the early going after a quiet night overseas.
Asian trading was characterized by light physical buying. Trade in New York was very light
yesterday with low volumes and too little movement in either direction to inspire traders. Things
might take a more critical tone towards the end of the week when we get producer price numbers
on Thursday and speculation about the next week's Fed meeting and interest rates take center
stage.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.
Henri
On sustainable development
For what its worth, I disagree that believing in a policy of sustainable development need necessarily bear a "socialist" stigma.

The reason some areas of the world get beyond their "carrying capacity" is due to the re-allocation of resources and subsequent development that causes dependence on those outside resources.

If carried by fair trade of some other good or service the development is not necessarily unsustainable. It is only when the resources are allocated without the underlying fundamental economic balance (an offsetting asset goods or service)that the development becomes unsustainable.

It is unsustainable since it is dependent on the continued "goodwill" of other economic regions or on the "forced" reallocation of global resources by some global force majeur (a necessarily "socialist" organization)

So here I see "socialist" ideas being the source of the problem. Not the progenitors of the solution.

Given time as we know it in terms of growing seasons lack-o-drought etc. The "time" it takes to transport temporary and humanitarian relief. The carrying capacity of a region can withstand temporary setbacks. When powerful people get the contracts for arranging the "temporary relief", the temporary relief may become more permanent than is justifiable. "Capitalism" then is demonized as well...but is this true capitalism when the profit obtained originates from a humanitarian motive. This is not true capitalism, it is profiting from the misfortune of others.

We must make a distinction (eventually) as in the case of somalia/ethiopia/eritrea, as to whether the fundamental nature of the region has changed from garden to desert temporarily or permanently. The sands of the sahara move ever so slowly but move they do.

We must (eventually) decide which regions have no offsetting goods or services to offer that justify their stage of development and must therefore be allowed to equilibrate (recess) to their intrinsic carrying capacity.

I am certainly not against the outpouring of temporary humanitarian aide as long as that is what it is. No one should "profit" from it. The cost should be born by those willing to give. It should not be expropriated from the unwilling. When such a circumstance is allowed to exist, then the people say...I already gave...my part is done...they are absolved of any guilt and hence lose all that is to be gained in the act of giving.
RossL
Henri,Steve H, RE:Convergence

The question
-- J.P. Morgan assuming much of the paper-gold responsibilities. Why?

Too big to fail?
Henri
This is what provoked my foray into sustainable development.
Sorry for posting out-of-context

Clipped from the "radioliberty" link referenced below in post # 30159 by ss of nep

SNIP
"...The message of the American Stonehenge also foreshadowed the current drive for Sustainable Development. Any time you hear the phrase "Sustainable Development" used, you should substitute the term "socialism" to be able to understand what is intended."
UNSNIP
elevator guy
Need advise
Which is better-

To take what you can get from this life as we know it, under the present dollar reign, and maintain the status quo?

Or to rock the boat, and help to collapse the dollar house of cards by exposing the paper gold foundation?

On the one hand, my life will not be interrupted.

On the other, I may have to hack out a new path in the jungle, for survival.

Or maybe the answer is not necessarily all one option or the other. Perhaps our brains have been massaged by the dollar driven media, until we think that breaking our chains of dollar fiscal slavery will result in our hanging for sure. Maybe a better life awaits those who rebel.

Your thoughts?

As a last note, I was thinking about what a funny joke being a millionaire would be, if the dollar was to become devalued. Owning a million dollars could become as worthless as owning a million grains of sand. Best to store value in gold, or see it all wash away.
ss of nep
my vote

I go for Rocking the Boat.



The Status Quo sucks.


Will gold be of value ?
Tuff question.

YGM
IF ONLY THIS "IS"TRUE.......Soros & Gold.
http://www.minesite.com/index.htmNews Link...http://www.minesite.com/news2.htm

GEORGE SOROS LAYS DOWN CHALLENGE TO BROWN BY BUYING GOLD.

Word has it that George Soros, the Hungarian genius, is buying gold. OK, Everyone knows that when such news gets around it is usually because he is poised to sell to those who think they can make money by riding on his back. In the case of gold, which has performed abysmally for a long time apart from the brief spike when the central banks made their announcement last September, such a ploy is unlikely.

Only last week Soros announced that he was withdrawing from aggressive hedge fund management because markets are now "too volatile." This could reasonably be translated as saying that the equity, bond and currency markets in which he has made so much money are now too transparent. In other words it has become ever easier for his operations to be tracked and this means, in turn, that he can no longer remain one jump ahead.

The man is no longer a hungry fighter and as his book, The Crisis of Global Capitalism" shows he is happy to give more of his time to philosophising. He has argued that the ideals of tolerant democracies can be threatened by those with an absolutist faith in the free market to the extent that market mechanism is allowed to assume a position of overriding importance.

Once a man gets wrapped up in philosophy his thoughts turn to the longer term. The dollar, as Soros knows better than most, is in a high risk area. The US economy has been pumped up on the strength of a private sector credit bubble, and the dollar depends on huge capital inflows. There is also a head of political pressure building up to persuade the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, slow down the US economy and take the pressure off the euro.

To the new long termist Soros this must provide an ideal opportunity. He can pick up gold easily enough from politicians and central bankers who have never made a trading profit in their lives. Such buying would be difficult to detect, so he would be under no pressure. And when the moment eventually comes, as come it must, when the dollar falls he will pull off the coup of a lifetime.

Gold went up US$4 last week despite the news that the Swiss were going to put 120 tonnes on the market by September. Brown will continue with his gold sales. All Soros has to do is sign cheques and sell off loose holdings in his Quantum portfolio. Gives him plenty of time for philosophy in the long summer months.

8 May 2000
Henri
get you some
Gold
Get you at least your own fair share (3 sovereigns)
then buy more for your families share
then buy at least ten times more to trade in the future for what you need.

Remember, it is only a tool, not the end in itself. Much like a squirrel stores nuts for the winter to come. Get some, store it, use it when times get rough, survive, get some more when good times return.
Leland
Verrry Off Topic...I've Been Watching Some Excitement
There appears to be a big uranium strike, Saskachewan...
Here's a chat site comment on STOCKHOUSE:

"Of course JNN is going ballistic! You're looking at what could be the next Uranium mine there at Moore
Lake.
How do you think society is going to power the internet age? Dirty coal burning power plants? Nope. The
answer is nuclear power. It's much more effient and cleaner.
Heck, the first commercial electric car is on the market right now. Maybe you've seen the ads on TV. In
3 or 4 years there will be many electric cars driving down the roads... no need for gasoline, however,
there will be a greater demand for electric power!
Uranium is the key! Saskatchewan is the Uranium capitol of the world. It already have 3 or 4 Uranium
mines in full production up in the north. Won't be long before huge electrical demand makes another
Uranium mine viable!"

If anyone is interested, post a query, I'll give some links.
Laura
Interconnectedness
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htmPractically no one is aware.

The coming Global Super-Crisis is on the horizon. Full speed ahead.


Gold, Get You Some!
YGM
CALL TO ARMS......GATA/Washington.
No matter which discussion board you frequent........Dr. Vronsky says it all here.........



� GATA EQUIVALENT OF THE US NAVY SEALS �
(vronsky)May 09, 12:37 The GATA equivalent of the US Navy Seals will be hitting the 'beaches of Washington' soon. For their operation to be successful, GATA will need the bombardment of our 'Big-gun' support. GATA needs that all GOLD-EAGLE's readership 'bombard' Congressional Members of the US Senate and the US House of Representatives.

Not only US Citizens should voice their opinion about the Gold Cabal's Anti-Trust machinations in the manipulation of the gold price, ALL GOLD-EAGLE readers should take advantage of their right to be heard. PRICE-FIXING is materially injurious to everyone�anywhere.

Speak your piece�exercise your God-given right to be heard. Assert your opinion.

Following are the email addresses of all US Congressmen and Congresswomen.

http://www.webslingerz.com/jhoffman/congress-email.html
http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/
http://www.capweb.net/classic/Index.morph?pagename=senalpha

GATA is about to 'invade' Washington on OUR BEHALF- it needs our 'bombardment' support...NOW...Bear arms in the form of your words.
Christopher
Elevator Guy msg#30179
"One of my wishes is that those dark trees
So old and firm they scarcely show the breeze
Were not as 'twere the merest mask of gloom.
But stretched away unto the edge of doom.

I should not be withheld but that someday
Into their vastness I should slip away.
Fearless of ever finding open land,
Or highway where the slow wheel pours the sand.

I do not see why I should ere turn back,
Or those should not set forth upon my track
To overtake me, who should miss me here,
And long to know if still I held them dear.

They would not find me changed from him they knew,
Only more sure of all I thought was true."

Robert Frost
YGM
GATA NEWS........
http://www.gata.org10p EDT Monday, May 8, 2000

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Battle of Washington is about to commence.

A little more than a year ago the Gold Anti-Trust
Action Committee developed a strategy to win the day
against the manipulators of the gold market. Our
strategy was based on the "enveloping horn" tactic of
the great South African Zulu chieftain, Shaka.

That strategy is working for us as it worked for him.

To defeat his opponents, Shaka had his warriors form a
diamond formation that unfurled into a horn-like form
as both sides suddenly flared out to surround his foes.

The point of GATA's formation is our law firm,
Philadelphia's highly regarded Berger & Montague. While
we have not yet brought legal action, our law firm has
kept our adversaries off-guard.

The right flank of the "horn" has done its job well.
Our plan was to get the gold producers behind us, to
inform the investing public of the dangers of excess
hedging, and to support those companies that did not
hedge or started to reduce their forward sale
positions.

To date GATA has raised $206,498. Five major gold
companies have supported us, many juniors have chipped
in as well, and so have many individuals from around
the world. Though the price of gold has gone down, many
non-hedgers are outperforming the big hedgers like
Barrick Gold. It is such a surprising development that
The New York Times journalist just published an article
headlined , "Gold Believers Put Rationality to Test."
Randall Oliphant, president of Barrick Gold, was quoted
in the article as saying he found it difficult to
understand. "It doesn't make sense to us and I can't
explain it," Oliphant said.

The task of GATA's left flank was to get the Internet
behind us and to take our case to the politicians in
Washington to expose the manipulation and to ask them
to take action. We are making our move tomorrow.

The GATA team -- Chris Powell, Reginald Howe, Frank
Veneroso, and me -- are meeting to go over our strategy
for the next day. And on Wednesday we will be
presenting our "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis"
document to members of Congress and their staffs. Our
report is 90 pages. There is no way that any fair-
minded person can come read this document and conclude
other than that the gold market IS manipulated and that
a derivative crisis is on the horizon unless immediate
steps are taken to avoid it.

The gold price must be allowed to rise, and sharply, to
slow down gold demand.

On Thursday GATA will deliver a personalized bound copy
of our document to every Senate and House banking
committee member. Material from Frank Veneroso,
Reginald Howe, and www.LeMetropleCafe.com's
"Chronological Commentary on the Manipulation of the
Gold Market" from Sept. 9, 1998, through Feb. 15,
2000, has been included.

Next week a color center-spread open letter, addressed
to the banking committee members, will appear in Roll
Call, the weekly newspaper that covers Congress. All
Washington will know that if Congress does not
investigate this serious matter and the banking crisis
develops, they will have no one to blame but
themselves.

Early next week GATA will issue a press release on our
operation. In addition, the "Gold Derivative Banking
Crisis" document will be sent to all the gold producers
and to the press. (That includes CNBC.)

GATA will also send a copy to Gold Fields Mineral
Services and challenge it to debate us on our findings.

The manipulation crowd has power and money. We have the
truth and the Internet. We will win. Wish us well.

BILL MURPHY, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



elevator guy
@Christopher
Very nice indeed!
Leland
"Oil World: 1973 Compared to 2000", Link Posted by Ted Butler
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/web/downloads/whitepaper.pdfPlease note, Pdf, Acrobat Reader required...
YGM
Hey Dollar Bill...
C'mon Back & Discuss Your Point...Sorry if I was rude in my last response to you......But you got me going...(not hard to do these days)
Please read this from my old friend at GE Forum (curious)
.........................................................................

"The germ of destruction of our nation is in the power of the
judiciary, an irresponsible body -- working like gravity by night and
by day, gaining a little today and a little tomorrow, and advancing
its noiseless step like a thief over the field of jurisdiction, until
all shall render powerless the checks of one branch over the other and
will become as venal and oppressive as the government from which we
separated." --Thomas Jefferson

...................................................

Does the US have politicians and citizens who still believe
in the truth seeing the light of day... I believe so and probably you, yourself are in that category......Join in the truth finding mission well underway here......Regards: YGM.
Topaz
Laura (5/9/2000; 11:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 30185)

First:- Neanderthal Man
Second:- cro-Magnon(sp)Man
Now:- "Hydrocarbon Man"......

That cracks me up!!
Aristotle
Henri, your thoughts on sustainable development are on target.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
ORO
Pondering productivity
Reading through some of my posts and web pages on productivity, a question hit me: what is the marginal value of gains in productivity?

I have argued before that the gains in official productivity statistics were between total falsehood to mostly fabricated. I had shown (to my satisfaction - at least) that the apparent productivity comes completely from other factors aliasing into the numbers:
1. The intentional practice by the BLS of adjusting growth in computer power relative to price rather than adjusting unit numbers to price being one major source of inflated productivity estimates.
2. I also claimed that the marginal value of new computing power was declining rapidly, perhaps more so than the price, such that the use of equal computing power for running a chemical plant and displaying "Barbie Cam" snapshots on the net are treated as having the same marginal value in the official statistics.
3. I pointed out that the major source of productivity in the global economy was the transition of people in Emerging Economies from Iron Age production to 21st century production and computer technology complete with semiconductors and internet software (see the Phillipinos who are accused of writing the "Love Bug").
4. I pointed out that a strong dollar relative to the currencies of these Emerging Economies was causing the import of their productivity into the US to appear as if US productivity is growing. I pointed out that the dollar was strong because of a series of debt traps into which the Emerging Economy corporations and governments were "cheated" into.
5. I showed that the bulk of the actual productivity improving technologies were applied between 40 and 10 years ago, and that current applications are not used to lower cost, since cost is not a valuable advantage to business. The technologies are used mostly for the purpose of changing the character of inventory - its composition - rather than its quantity. Furthermore, I claimed that the new technologies' effects in reducing retailing and distribution costs will result in increasing the volume of both service and goods demand, which would later reach the resource origin of production and service: labor and raw material. When these would be reached, pricing of both would start to climb to the point of reversing productivity savings in costs - leading to price rises following price declines. Later, corporations would start seeing their inventory as a source for capital gains and this would drive them to reverse the 20 year trend to reduce inventories. The added demand for inventory build up would undo some or all of the inventory and distribution technology improvements in costs delivered by information technology today and in the next 3 years.

The question now is whether the productivity improvements had a marginal value of any magnitude. I claim that they have, but that the bulk of the contribution is in the consumer's time savings, access to a much greater selection of products and services. Also, there is a completely new consumer-to-consumer marketplace which is threatening to remove the few remaining economies of scale that corporations enjoy, while increasing the level of compensation necessary to remove people from these profitable activities and into additional corporate work. Though living conditions may improve for a great many, none of this would impact directly on apparent official statistics.

Many corporations will see cost savings in their supply chain as they move forward to reduce idle inventory, purchasing order processing costs, distribution inefficiencies and marketing costs. However, these savings of 5% to 20% over the next 2-3 years will be more than absorbed by material and labor costs. This leads to the conclusion that the marginal value of applying these technologies were not even close to the expectations raw numbers give rise to.

Thoughts?
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/
Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 9, 2000

Rates for Monday, May 8, 2000

Federal funds 6.01

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 6.19
10-year 6.57
20-year 6.69
30-year 6.25

right-side up spread FF vs long bond = +.24%

YGM
Left Wondering.....China/WTO/Gold Reserves....
China....Deputy Director, Gold Bureau ....Comments Sept/99
What is the relationship between Clinton continually pushing for Chinas membership (WTO) and these old comments made by Cheng.....Were they a veiled threat of Gold acquisition if not favored for acceptance into WTO?.....possibly another piece of the over-all picture in the Great Gold Heist of the 20th century.......Now we have Clinton, Carter, Gore and others again trying to fast track
Chineese acceptance into the fold..........(See Drudge News) ....... Questions,questions...........YGM.


(Reference to Cheng Comments)

From Reg Howe/Goldensextant.com

September 9, 1999. Chinese Comments on Gold: Threat or Faux Pas?

Last week Ai Dang Cheng, deputy director of the Gold Bureau under the State Economic and Trade Commission, told Bridge News that China's gold reserves of 394 tons were too low relative to its foreign exchange reserves of US$146 billion and population of 1.3 billion, and that they could rise to 1000 tons. (At US$260/oz., China's gold reserves equal about $3.3 billion, or less than 2.3% of its total reserves.) The next day AFX Europe reported that the People's Bank of China had disclaimed any intention to increase its gold reserves. What was going on?

I don't know. Perhaps Mr. Ai, although his point appears well-taken, innocently misspoke. On the other hand, with critical negotiations about China's entry into the World Trade Organization at hand, perhaps the Chinese are delivering a subtle reminder of the strength with which they could enter the gold market should they choose to do so. In any event, it seems unlikely that China would announce to the world in advance plans for the imminent purchase of 600 tons of gold. Stupid traders they are not. Bank of England take note.
SHIFTY
Ponzi
Nasdaq 3585.01 + Dow 10 536.75 = 14121.76 divide by 2 + 7060.00 Ponzi
Down 75.62 Ponzi Points
SHIFTY
1999 Gold Eagle 1/10 oz.
I heard today that there were some 1999 1/10 oz gold eagle coins that have a W mint mark. Said to be rare. Does anyone how true this is.
RossL
Shifty

The gold bullion proof coins minted since 1994 have the W mint mark. There is a premium for the higher quality strike. The mint has not made a large quantity of them due to lack of demand. They are not rare.
Simply Me
1999 W Gold Eagle
The W mint mark comes from the West Point Mint. They sometimes make special edition proof coins. Whether it will be a valuable coin in the future or not (aside from the gold content) depends on the number minted.
For instance, the '95 W Proof Silver Eagle was thrown in as a freebie with Gold Eagle Sets they were selling. Not many were sold, so very few '95 W Proof Silver Eagles were minted. They're going for over $1200.00 now.

simply me
Bonedaddy
elevator guy
Your perception of events impresses me. You wrote, "Perhaps our brains have been massaged by the dollar driven media, until we think that breaking our chains of dollar fiscal slavery will result in our hanging for sure." Consider the following. Our children shoot each other in school. We dishonor the wise ones (elderly) publicly in TV commercials. We have a negative savings rate. We have felons in Congress. We accept a lying, drug addicted, sexual pervert as our Commander in Chief. Mothers and fathers combined work 100 hour weeks and let strangers raise the kids. We practice government financed genocide on the generation of infants that should care for us in our old age. Perhaps we are already hanging from these paper chains you speak of?
Elwood
Topaz (5/9/2000; 3:44:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30151)

"Perhaps you can identify an historical example where such a strongly "perceived" currency did the proverbial "Swan-Dive" as is predicted by the Good souls here!"

Sir, I cannot. The fact that a widely-accepted paper-based reserve has never died places our time in its own historical perspective. We could say that it is just as novel that the world ever got into a condition of accepting something that is backed by nothing but perception.

The perception of a thing's trustworthiness always builds slower than the perception of panic that accompanies the unwinding of such trust. Thus, the readjustment of other's perception of the dollar vs. gold will graphically be the same image as that of those 1997 Asian currencies against the dollar.
Elwood
SALMON
To All interested in a fair and stable gold price



After reading the recent news on GATA and their efforts towards fair and stable gold prices, and to allow a free gold market, I realize that leasing gold at 1%, selling it, and reinvesting the proceeds is a game for the rich, privileged and powerful. It is a game created by them, for their benefit only.
Here is my question: Has anyone tried to lease, lets say 100 OZ of gold from any source?
Is it possible for a small investor to do this? If a small investor could lease small increments of gold at 1% then why isn't this option being promoted at the same level that Micron Electronics or other investments are being promoted.
JUST imagine one million investors from around the world leasing 100 OZ of gold at 1% and putting it safely away in their safety deposit box at a cost let's say of $300/year (tax deductible). Wouldn't that cause havoc. And, just imagine what that would do to your overall gold holdings!! 100 million ounces taken out of circulation would cause those speculators to run for the hills. It is the only counter defence measure. Can it be implemented? Any comments or thoughts on this?


Thanks

S+
RossL
Clinton: Testimony 'not legally false'
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/A30124-2000May8.html
Matthew J. Glavin, president of the Southeastern Legal Foundation, said the disbarment case against Clinton is clear-cut because "the president lied under oath and obstructed justice," violating "the most basic rules required of those who hold law licenses."
Elwood
SALMON (05/09/00; 18:40:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 30203)

S,
The main problem I see in your plan is that when you lease the gold, you are agreeing to repay the loan in gold. If the price runs it is not you who reaps the reward, but the person or bank who loaned it to you(if they can collect). This is something that the "rich" are about to learn the hard way.

Given that, why lease when you can still exchange your dollars for gold today at such bargain exchange rates. Give MK a call, and you'll see what I mean. The physical owner is truly the rich one. The world has merely yet to recognize them as such.
Elwood
elevator guy
@ Bonedaddy, and ss of nep
Thank you for your responses.

Bonedaddy- It would seem we are at the eve of moral decay, which proceeds the disintegration of our nation. Do you ever get the feeling that the public is getting "dumbed down", unitl we are no more than worker ants, who drool at the thought of a weekend party? MTV rules, you know. Deception and public preception is the game of government and media. We the sheeple are kept in the dark, and fed BS until we cant tell the difference between truth and spin.

SS of Nep- I think gold will always have value, just like real estate.
ORO
Perplexed - WWII and the Empire
The items you refer to are true, but your interpretation is incorrect.

While lending to those under duress may seem like doing them a great favor, in reality, had their favor would have been greater had the US simply let them be and allowed US corporations and European corporations to compete on their own.

The purpose of the Marshal plan was exactly like that of the World Bank and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development: Create a debt trap in which Europe would forever pay for the Italian French and German defeat (France was a property of Germany, as was Italy when the US won the war). The purpose, though it included the well being of Europe, was to put the people and governments of these countries into perpetual debt service. It was the same thing done to every distressed country on earth.

That Europe may seem ungrateful for the prolonged attempt at turning it into a perpetual vasaal of America and Britain should come as no surprise.

"Good intentions" of the generous left were joined with the profit motive of the banks and some corporations to turn a gesture of magnificense into a source of perpetual ill will.

This, like most other examples of American and transnational "help", was no more than another step towards America and Britain's empire by debt service. The New World Order is on its death bed and will soon self destruct. It will have died of old age. The debt at its heart suffering a stroke of default after many angioplasty bailouts, IMF structural impoverishment loan packages, and years of nitro pills.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

After Empire come chaos and servitude. Why? because only when the return on Imperial violence is gone does the Empire fall. When the return is gone, so is the benefit of Empire. When that is gone, so is the economy that built itself on distribution of the stream of goods coming into the land.

Perplexed, the undoing of our local industry is an inevitable side effect of taking the proceeds that are the benefits of our Empire, soon to be lost. If discounted goods and services from abroad are the payoff of Empire, how could you complain of the loss of the need to make the goods locally? How do you think an Anglo house became triple in size relative to the average dwelling in the West? It is because of there being no need to make the other stuff of life, the booty of Empire, that labor is available for the construction of greater and greater houses, shopping malls and two ton cars.

That the tools of empire make the people of the Empire's core subservient to the colonies to supply their needs is the price they pay. When the next generation comes after the loss of empire, it will be unprepared for the results. Watch as it unfolds. Thank your grandparents for providing you with all the liabilities generated by their benefit. Thank your parents for trying to get their own piece of the pie. Finally, slap your own shoulder for selliing out to the system that will soon eat you.

You will soon face the choice between paying them or being bankrupt.

THC
Powerful Thought for the Day
It is almost certain that aboveground stockpiles of gold bullion exceed those of silver bullion.......

In addition, most silver is not produced by primary silver mines. As a result, production volume is not very price elastic.

Should serious money ever begin to flow into the precious metals, silver will fly!!

However, the true shortage before our eyes is platinum......
so that is where my money is.

Open interest on the Tocom is over 1M oz for Plat......this is supported by only 10,000 oz of inventory!!!!

THC
THC
Good evening, ORO!
Msg. # 30207 was excellent, thank you!!!!

Now, should you have time for a few words, I would be interested in hearing about your reasons for feeling that "Tocom Plat Paper is being sold into the ground," if you seen other evidence/sings of such other than the backwardation.

As I noted below, the world's biggest Plat futures contract (Tocom) is linked to the physical world by just 10,000 ounces of inventory!!!!!!!

The potential for a squeeze is significant.

Cheers,
Canuck
CRB
Bridge/CRB Current Quotes
Other Futures Markets

Bridge/CRB Index


Page snapshot Tue 09 May 2000 16:37 ET
Description Last Change Percent Change
Bridge CRB Futures Price Index 217.75 +2.05 +0.95 %
Bridge CRB Index 217.13 +1.42 +0.66 %
Energies

Description Last Change Percent Change
Natural Gas 3.18 -0.003 -0.09 %
Crude Oil 28.5 -0.15 -0.52 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.9455 -0.0051 -0.54 %
------------------------------------------------------

CRB at 217.75; Crude well over $28

Canuck
Debt
The Public Debt To the Penny
Current
05/08/2000 $5,662,693,356,964.51

CURRENT
MONTH AMOUNT

05/05/2000 $5,662,392,522,569.88
05/04/2000 $5,661,532,699,593.02
05/03/2000 $5,658,066,936,728.56
05/02/2000 $5,669,550,992,339.00
05/01/2000 $5,660,725,641,994.27
SHIFTY
RossL/Simply Me
The coins I heard about were not proof coins. From what I heard some were just found, and were overlooked because they were just a bullion coin. I don't know how long ago they were found, but I was under the impression that it was a recent discovery.
Black Blade
Leland and msg #30184
Generally have to agree about nuclear power, however, politically not likely to become a primary power source. Solar and wind power are prohibitively expensive and usually sold to wealthy tree-huggers during this transition to deregulated power. Natural gas is relatively clean, however, regulatory agencies are slow to act and building NG power generating plants take time. As far as electric vehicles becoming comon place in the near future (3 or 4 years), I wouldn't count on it. It would be a tremendous power drain. The contruction of such vehicles usually require more energy (and pollution for that matter) than the conventional internal conbustion engine. The viability of clean electric cars in the near future is truly a pipe-dream. Besides, one would have to be able to find a wall socket at every stop, or have one veeeerrryyy long extension cord ;-)
TheStranger
ORO #30194
ORO - thanks for reviewing your ideas on productivity. More than any other element to the inflation picture, I think a misplaced confidence in productivity growth accounts for why inflation has caught so many by surprise. Amazingly, as late as just a few months ago, I would say a majority even in this gold forum were arguing AGAINST inflation (imagine, in a GOLD forum). Your insight in this area has been helpful in exploring this question.

"What is the marginal value of gains in productivity?", you ask. Evidently, Alan Greenspan has decided that, thanks to the wealth effect, there is none. From an article on the subject in yesterday's Wall Street Journal:

"Mr. Greenspan mixed and matched statistics to discern wealth effect
patterns. His research indicated to him that, even if it were wholly rational,
the bull market was hauling the U.S. economy into warp speed by
generating greater spending.

"Indeed, the more he and his colleagues believed that the New Economy
and the stock market made sense, the more they worried that the economy
was veering out of control. At policymaking sessions through late 1999 and
early 2000, intense debates broke out as officials grappled with the ways
that changing productivity affects the economy. It was a question the
central bank hadn't confronted for four decades. Fed Vice Chairman
Roger Ferguson literally dusted off his old macroeconomics textbook from
college.

"Fed officials were concluding that, contrary to popular belief, soaring
productivity did not necessarily mean the central bank could afford to keep
interest rates low. In debates, the more aggressive anti-inflation hawks,
Fed governor Laurence Meyer and Richmond Fed President Alfred
Broaddus in particular, argued that higher productivity could actually
require higher rates. That's because the supply created by accelerating
productivity takes time to build, but a stock market soaring in anticipation
of that higher growth creates instant demand."



Black Blade
Bonedaddy, ss of nep, and elevator guy
You guys sure have had an interesting discussion today. It make one think. perhaps, a comparison could be made between the "Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire" and the History of the USA. Somehow, and for some reason I tend to compare Billy Clinton to Caligula. Hmmmmm................
Elwood
Trail Guide (5/9/2000; 5:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 30157)
You state:
"I know The Golden Sextant is following that line of Swiss gold filling Euro loans. The problem is that it's not. They
feel comfortable letting the dollar faction figure it out themselves. Euro Zone banks know that the entire Gold arena
will shut down once this US supply line is cut off. They are
not so dumb as to fill their paper with physical when the rest of the world is force settling in cash. They will not "
blanket" cover all loans. Just the important ones vital to oil supply. This is the real leverage that will bring on Oil
for Euros! Get the picture!"

I reply:
Ah! But at what price? If the private Euro Zone banks know this is coming wouldn't they want to cash settle at current prices? Could the Swiss sales allow them to do this? I understand they would never let their gold be used by the dollar forces to deliver against their paper, but what will the SNB say to their people when the gold price runs, and they find no one willing or able to deliver the 300+ tonnes they've loaned? Could the Swiss sales be a way for the Euro forces to allow their own banks to cash settle with the BIS/ECB system today much like the British are trying to do with their BOE physical? Doing it this way would let the private Swiss/Euro banks off the hook when the price runs while ensuring the public institutions a minimum of defaults from Euro Zone borrowers. It's a sticking point, I admit, but it's coming from a man trying to break free of his "western thinking" shackles. As such it's hard for me to understand the BIS/ECB forces will leave their respective private banks twisting in the gale of a running gold price.

You continue:
Elwood, I agree that everyone is still trying to milk whatever gold out of the system they can get. This was a driving factor for allowing the US to "save some face" by forcing oil prices down some. Onec the gold flow stops (and it may be right now) oil ril rise fast and furious!

I reply:
Very intriguing statement! This makes me wonder what a graph of oil imports plotted against gold exports would look like. Hmmm. I am at the mercy of this government data which, unfortunately, is not very timely.
Elwood
ORO
THC - TOCOM Plat Paper
You are pointing out that TOCOM has not significant Pt to deliver.

You point out the backwardation.

Surely no one seeking delivery of physical platinum will find reason to buy a TOCOM futures contract.

That leaves futures buyers of only two varieties: The uninformed speculator, and the short squeeze engineer. The latter would be naive to think that there there is a chance that TOCOM would allow the price to spike so high that the stranded TOCOM principals would suffer substancial losses. TOCOM would suspend delivery rights that much more quickly than it did with Pd, before the major price spike can fully develop.

If a major holder of current month futures asks for delivery he will be coaxed and threatened out of the position, else the exchange will suspend delivery before the music stops.

As TC has indicated before, the trick is to prevent profitable excercise of options and futures of the deliverable month by making it appear better to buy a future month. This is done by selling futures agressively, below market, and selling underpriced futures call options for the non-deliverable month. So long as there is any Pt store available for lending, it will be used to arbitrage the contract price from the current month to the spot month.

Under these circumstances, it is not the supply and demand balance on current and future Pt for delivery that dictates price, it is the availability of Pt inventory for borrowing.

Any future month can be more aggressively sold than the one being bought when a financial firm with unlimited credit is trading. The price will be arbitraged into the spot month so long as SOME interest rate (payable in currency) is more attractive to Pt holders than the holding of the Pt itself.

TheStranger
Newmont and The Dead Cat
I don't usually comment on day to day market activity because I know there is no quicker way to make a fool of myself. Still, it should not go unnoticed that Newmont closed near 27 today. It is now up fully 100% from its 1998 low. This is the first time, since that low, the stock has done so unassisted by such bullish events as last September's Washington Agreement. To get an idea of what an achievement that is, consider that bullion will not achieve the same benchmark until it closes above $500. I believe the whole XAU would have better reflected the strength in Newmont had it not been for the short-sighted hedging policies so prevalent in the gold mining industry. And were the XAU higher, so, undoubtedly, would be the price of bullion itself.

Also - I think it is clear now that the dead cat bounce in the Nasdaq is over. This is, after all, a bear market. Volume on the OTC is now running at less than half of what it was just a month or so ago. The low volume is one clear indication that the average Joe has decided not to capitulate but rather to grit his teeth and bear it out. This is a naive decision many may regret for years to come. Rising volume would indicate the kind of wholesale surrender which is common at important bottoms. As volumes diminish day by day, what we have instead is merely a bear market-variety buyer's strike. As inflation further establishes itself, I am afraid, so will interest rates continue to rise. As interest rates continue to rise, so will demand for high PE stocks continue to wane. Thus spake a Stranger.
THC
Oro - Continued Discussion re Tocom Plat
Oro,

Thank you for the quick response.

I feel a bit like the "three blind men each touching part of the elephant, and trying to describe it." We see the same phenomenon, yet our interpretations are significantly different.

Let me respond to a few of your thoughts:

1. "Surely no one seeking delivery of physical platinum will find reason to buy a TOCOM futures contract. That leaves futures buyers of only two varieties: The uninformed speculator, and the short squeeze engineer."

I think we need to keep in mind that probably 98% of those who buy/sell futures have no intention of taking/making delivery. The futures market allows them to control risk, lock in prices, speculate, and make/take delivery, depending on their situation.

The delivery mechanism is not of *immediate* importance to most futures users, but it is essential to insure the pricing tie with the physical markets, and to allow for delivery when deemed necessary.

And to date it has been possible to take delivery of Pt. 70 contracts were delivered at the expiry of the last contract.

BUT � should a big player try to take delivery, the game is over. This is exactly as you and TG, TC, etc. have pointed out.

2. "As TC has indicated before, the trick is to prevent profitable excercise of options and futures of the deliverable month by making it appear better to buy a future month. This is done by selling futures agressively, below market, and selling underpriced futures call options for the non-deliverable month."

Oro, I would like to request that you reconsider the above statement in light of the open interest in each contract (http://www.tocom.or.jp/kan_toku/kan_toku_pt_e.html). The open interest of the December 2000 contract is about 6 times that of the June 2000 contract. Shorting futures would have a diluted effect due to the high volume/OI, but trying to buy back would have a strong upward effect on prices due to the low volume/OI.

In this sort of market, anyone trying to short the far out months and buy back (they MUST either buy back or deliver) the close months would suffer massive losses.

Is this a likely strategy of a major player? If you think it is likely, could you show me a specific example of how one could do it with Tocom plat without incurring massive losses and exposing oneself to a destructive squeeze?

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

THC
THC
Oro - Tocom Reference Info
Oro, for your reference here are the latest plat prices for each Tocom contract.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html

I would imagine that anyone shorting the far out futures and buying back the near futures would incur serious losses due to the backwardation (just like those going long far out and selling near futures for gold/silver on the Comex have lost money for most of this decade, due to the contango).

Thanks,

Elwood
Trail Guide
I think it just hit me. I've been assuming that the gold price will run in both Euros and Dollars. I forgot what I read in the archives that both the gold price and the Euro price will run against the dollar. That's where I missed it. The private Euro Zone banks must be converting their dollar gold loans to Euro gold loans as we speak. When they cash settle, the private banks won't be ruined, maybe just roughed up a little. That still leaves the national banks out their gold. Will they just write it off?
ORO
THC - profit motive and outstanding positions
I will say that OTC contracts normally outdo exchange contracts by a 10:1 ratio in financial instruments. Furthermore, a precious metal of any liquidity would have a banking system behind it. This would mean that the trading on the exchanges by large players may be protective in nature. When possible, it is nice to have a profit from exchange trading, but the purpose of participation is to protect the natural short position inherent in the nature of bullion banking from exposure to price risk - and more importantly, loss of confidence in the bank.

By their nature, bullion banks are leveraged and illiquid. If enough of their customers ask for physical delivery of metal in their accounts the bank simply goes under and is liquidated. If their bullion borrowers are insolvent because of a price move against them, then the bank will have suffered a default and not have a metal debt owed it to balance out the metal it owes. The bank would be insolvent in terms of the particular metal. Thus all assets of the bank would be at risk to be traded for metal to satisfy withdrawing clients.

So, the purpose of the action we speak of here is not to make a profit on the exchange from the price swing itself, though that is a nice kicker. The purpose is to prevent a bank run through the insolvency of particular borrowers, particularly the bank's trading subsidiaries and large leveraged clients that are short.

Whatever payment can be made in currency or financial instruments is something the bank can cover through interbank loans or from its CB. PMs are not supplied in quantity by any CB, and the interbank PM lending system seems nearly tapped out after decades of operating in a supply deficit. Thus fear of delivery requests far outweighs direct profit motives.

In a way it can be called the survival motive.
THC
Oro - How much longer?
Ahh, yes. Oro, you've "got the right stuff"!

It is true that OTC transactions are probably much larger than those in the open markets. And while the OTC market is completely opaque for those outside of the loop, I would imagine that the situation must parallel that in the open markets (deep backwardation, high lease rates).

Now, to be completely honest, it is clear from the Tocom prices that those who have been rolling short positions (Engelhard short 5000 contracts for past year) are bleeding heavily, with their money being transferred into the accounts of the longs (GRIN***).

BUT, Engelhard is slowly buying back it's shorts, and I would imagine others are getting tired of this.......

How much longer can it go on?

As far as I am concerned, they can continue it forever, because it is easy to play.........but will it last??? I can't imagine this free money machine will stay in existence forever.

Perhaps I should take delivery of a few bars and hold the warehouse receipts (ala Ted Butler)?

Thanks again,

THC
Leland
Black Blade, to Your #30214, I say "Kudos"!!
And those that favor atomic energy sources have their points
too. Here are a few...and I listen...they may be right...
I. THE COMMODITY: URANIUM

FACT:
Uranium is the fuel used by nuclear reactors to generate 17% of the world'
electricity.

FACT:
Uranium is an extremely concentrated and efficient fuel, much more so than
oil or coal. The following table shows the extent to which this true:

-------------------------------------------
Energy Source Electricity Produced
-------------------------------------------
1 kg of firewood 1 kwh
1 kg of coal 3 kwh
1 kg of oil 4 kwh
1 kg of uranium 50,000 kwh
-------------------------------------------

FACT:
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol called for significant reductions in worldwide
carbon dioxide emissions. Currently coal, gas and oil account for 63% of
the world's energy demands. Since nuclear power is the cleanest form of
energy available, it can be expected to play a growing role in helping
nations achieve their emission reduction targets.

FACT:
World production of electricity from nuclear power is increasing, with much
of this increase coming from Asia. Reuters has reported projections that
Asian electricity usage will grow five times faster than the developed
industrial world. There are currently 119 nuclear reactors operating in
ten countries in Asia, and 37 more under construction. This latter figure
represents 75% of total worldwide nuclear plant construction. Nuclear
power is clearly the preferred power source in this part of the world as it
is growing faster than alternative sources of electrical power generation.
Plans are in place to build many more nuclear power plants in the future.

FACT:
World nuclear reactors currently consume about 170 million pounds of
uranium oxide annually. Production supplies less than half of that total.
World consumption of uranium has exceeded production for several years.
The shortfall has been made up from existing inventories held by utilities,
producers, governments and others. This draw down can only continue for so
long. Over and above current annual demand, excess western world
inventories are now estimated to be less than one year of worldwide
consumption.

FACT:
In 1999 world uranium production decreased by 7% to 82 million pounds,
while western world production fell by 10% to 65 million pounds. Over the
next ten years, production from existing western mines is expected to
decline as reserves are depleted. On the other hand, consumption is
projected to increase.

FACT:
Uranium fuel accounts for only 2% to 5% of the operating costs associated
with generating nuclear power. A price increase in uranium would therefore
have little impact on production costs.

FACT:
It normally takes several years for new uranium discoveries to be developed
into producing mines. Due to the lead time required for new uranium mine
development, a significant increase in the market price of uranium will not
result in an immediate comparable increase in production.

FACT:
The uranium market has been in the doldrums for several years due to over
supply conditions and an end to the "cold war". The last big boom in the
late 1970's drove prices to US$40.00 per lb. Several experts believe that
the stage is being set for another major upside price move. The current
price for uranium has been fluctuating in the area of US$9.00 per lb.

FACT:
Nuclear energy has many advantages. It has received a bad rap from some
misinformed press and others with their own political agenda. Make no
mistake about it - nuclear energy is actually the cleanest, safest, and
most efficient energy (electricity) source there is. The facts prove this.
If you are concerned about nuclear power plants, then ask for the "SECOND
OPINION" article on this subject.

QUOTE:
"The simple facts remain that the industry [uranium] continues to produce
half of what utilities consume, that almost no new mines are being
developed, and that inventories continue to be drawn down at high
rates.......... The potential for a uranium price increase is excellent and
not very dependent on economic cycles."
View Yesterday's Discussion.

SHIFTY
China
I am afraid China will get most favored nation trading status, now known as NORMAL trading status. When you have Carter, Ford , Bush , Clinton, Gore, and little George Bush all pushing it.
They all have a China First agenda. With both Bush and Gore in love with one world government , China, and free trade, I fear that the average citizen thinks there is a difference in these two men. There's NOT A DIMES WORTH!!The sheep are asleep as wolves slowly CREEP! I will no longer vote Republican/Democrat if this is the best they can do. I love my country and think too much of it to vote for these #*&@%$&@$^*. I told a friend it looks like I will vote for Pat Buchanan. He told me that if I did we would get Al Gore! Is that worse that Bush? Lets see .....I can have a rootcanal with a corkscrew! or a rootcanal with a corkscrew! or Pat Buchanan ? I think Pat the goldbug Buchanan is looking like it for me.
That's been on my mind all day and I needed to vent.
Black Blade
Leland, a little more on Nuke Power
You may be right about the decrease in available Uranium. Permitting for any mine in the US is extremely difficult. Some known sources in the southwest are off limits as they are now part of national monuments, parks, military reserves, etc. One area is now the Escalante Staircase National Monument, southern Utah, recently created by Bill Clinton by dictatorial decree. This area also holds the largest known low-sulfur coal deposit in the western hemisphere (should also be noted that in the state of Utah Billy Clinton came in third behind Ross Perot in the 1991 election, possible revenge motive?). The only other large low-sulfur coal deposit is in Indonesia and owned by Lippo Bank (Contributors of illegal campaign funds to Billy Clinton through John Huang). One source of Uranium is the reprocessing of old fuel rods. Old Uranium fuel rods are reprocessed at some DOE sites such as the Idaho National Engineering Laboratories (INEL) in south central Idaho. Most old Uranium mines are either shut down or are becoming depleted of ore. Some recent sources of Uranium have been from the former Soviet Union stockpiles, however, these too are likely to be depleted in short order. The old-style graphite nuclear power plants in the old Soviet Union (such as Chernobyl) are of poor design and are extremely hazardous. These power plants are not likely to continue operations for many more years, unless of course the world is ready to stand by and let another disaster occur. The west is currently working with the North Koreans trying to build new nuclear power plants so that they conform to modern standards, while at the same time decommissioning their old Soviet era graphite power plants. The Japanese have done quite well with nuclear power over the last few years, as have the French. In short, it does not look as if the political powers in the US are about to allow any new resumption of nuclear power generation anytime soon. There is a movement to reduce and eliminate coal-fired power plants. Therefore it would seem logical that Natural Gas power plants will become the major source of power in the near term unless attitudes about nuclear power change.
Leland
Black Blade, You and I Agree!! Your Response is a Great One!!
To keep up with oil and gas developments, do you read the
HOUSTON CHRONICLE? Here's one of their latest on natural
gas price...
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/546441
Leland
Please excuse, let me paste that link properly...
ORO
THC - The Money Pump
A long time ago I was discussing with FOA the possibility of using cash settled call options options being sold endlessly by the large Bullion Banks with the Fed being ready to lend the Bullion banks any amount of dollars to cover the obligation. That was an alternative to the Fed selling these calls to the Bullion banks itself.

I pointed out that if such a system were being applied and was challanged by purchases of physical gold beyond the ability of the bankers to coax gold out of current holders, then the calls would turn into a money pump - creating more and more dollars in call holder's accounts, thereby turning the calls into a mechanism for pumping dollars. As the POG progresses, it would force the bankers to borrow ever more in order to satisfy the calls and avoid further purchases of physical. As more dollars are created, the ratio of dollars available per oz gold would ever grow. When the dollar size of this market reaches major proportions, the additional dollars would cascade into an acceleration of the global dollar supply growth - both relative to the gold supply and the global economy.

These contracts (if they were there), while diverting gold investor's flow away from physical, would still pose the same problem of causing exponential explosion in the gold (or other PM) price - by supplying dollars (i.e. fuel) to people who want gold. If this cascading effect gets started, the physical price will rise between the close of an option sale and settlement.



Rhody
@ TRAIL GUIDE
The only gold mining company that I know has the capacity
to fabricate both gold jewelry products and bullion wafers
is Harmony Gold Mines. It would appear to me, that this
gold equity (paper gold investment vehicle) would have the
potential to shift its product sales into EUROs should the
buying power of USDs implode. Do you know of any other
such companies?
Please note, that I still do not believe such a vehicle is
safe should there be a total implosion in value of the USD,
but HGMCY may be a safer vehicle to weather the initial
stages of the coming storm.
If there is a massive inflation of gold "value" in USDs,
I do agree that the threat of profit confiscation by
gov't surtax on mines is real. In the long run, such surtaxes would curtail production of gold leading to an
upward price spiral that would also undermine the EURO in
time as well. After all, the EURO is still a fiat currency.
What am I missing here?
HI - HAT
ss of nep Psyche
True wealth crises, the impoverishment of the psyche. Most do not see this.

They may have to starve as the price of re-admission. Hidden Truth not found in self deceit.

Can any of us really have inner respite amidst a sea of violent vomit that drouns the universal mind of all dignity.

In the end-game, nobody is right if everybody is wrong. This the dis-embodied talking heads cannot say.
ss of nep
Alternate energy
http://www.mega.nu:8080/tesla.html
Some of this sounds quite similar to what is
in Atlas Shrugged( although its been so long
I don't really remember ).



HI - HAT
Everybody
You are only important for a little while.
ss of nep
Weird Scenes Inside the Gold Mine

The End

ss of nep
HI - HAT (05/10/00; 04:47:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 30232)


HH - True wealth crises, the impoverishment of the psyche. Most do not see this.
SS � Most males spend their free time watching Monday night football, basketball, baseball,
Golf, �� Most women spend their free time shopping for another pair of shoes, these
Things are promoted by the mass media �.


HH - They may have to starve as the price of re-admission. Hidden Truth not found in self deceit.
SS � They don't know where the truth is to be found( if it exists at all ) all around the people are
Continuously lied to, from the time they begin to interact with others �. They concede and
Revert to the mind numbing sport watching and shopping sprees

HH - Can any of us really have inner respite amidst a sea of violent vomit that drouns the universal mind of all dignity.
SS � To find what is needed one must � eliminate the ongoing unrelenting distractions offered by the so called
Western capitalistic society � turn off the internal dialogue

HH - In the end-game, nobody is right if everybody is wrong. This the dis-embodied talking heads cannot say
SS � Does correctness exist, I certainly don't have the answer, however the "dis-embodied talking head"
( ie Clint-pig-ula ) will do nothing but lie.


HI � HAT: your post was too cryptic for me.



ss of nep
Leigh (5/9/2000; 8:57:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 30172)
You stated - "there's a better world than this one"


So, pray tell, just where is it.

ss of nep
SHIFTY (5/10/2000; 0:53:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 30226)

You, I believe, are quite correct.

Those on your scum list "Carter, Ford , Bush , Clinton, Gore, and little George Bush" as well as the others,
are, hand picked then groomed for thier life near to top
of the food chain, they have no good intentions for the commoners.


SteveH
Article stating gold may be next NASDAQ...
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q2/2000_05/1000510.070302.gwyzeeeee.htmORO,

So, is that what is happening? Is the ratio of dollar to gold increasing exponentially?

Is there an option expiry in conjunction with the next Bank of England Gold auction in a few weeks? (this may be the catalyst that launches the XAU and gold too) After all it did the second auction (if memory serves me correctly).

Gold (futures) up $1.7.
EURO up at 91.47.
Dollar down $.47 at 110.23.
S&P Future (premium) and DJIA in the red.
EBAY now below its all-time support level!
CISCO being investigated in a stock irregularity with a bought company's stock.
BRE-X was three years ago.
Soros buying gold? (http://www.minesite.com/news2.htm)


Leigh
ss of nep
Hi, ss. I was referring to Heaven, where the Creator of all life reigns and the streets are paved with gold. Who wouldn't die smiling, knowing they would soon be there? However, this isn't a religious site, so I can't say more.
ss of nep
ORO
You Stated - "The New World Order is on its death bed and will soon self destruct".

Now, if you are correct then I submit that TPTB will take the rest of the world down with them, as they don't like it when they don't get to win.

We will see.

Welfare States do certainly apppear to be in decline.

Then it will be Chaos( my dog's name ).

Gold may do for awhile.

Food and shelter will become more important.

IM( not so )HO.

Cheers.

ss of nep
Leigh (05/10/00; 06:09:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 30240)


Polycarp.

SteveH
All eyes on the Fed, in the meantime
think about this.

Why is the Fed given such focus in the markets? It is as though the Fed is the only factor that can move a market? I think not, yet every pundit forces us to watch their next move yet the real market movering work in the shadows setting a trap until one day folks turn and say, "Now, where in the heck did that come from?"

Yep, divert attention from the root causes and blame the Fed. What poppycock.

Black Blade
Morning Wakeup Call! and Re Leigh msg#30240
Source: Bridge NewsAsia Precious Metals Review: Spot gold at US $277-278 per ounce By Polly Yam, Bridge News

Hong Kong--May 10--Spot gold moved between U.S. $277 and $278 in Asia on Wednesday in sluggish trading due to unclear price direction, dealers said. Short-covering buying from Japan supported spot platinum, they said, adding trading of silver and palladium was sluggish.

Dealers reported that physical buying was minimal on Wednesday, as many participants expected massive selling to emerge above $280. They noted that trading from Australia also was thin. "Many players couldn't decide price direction. And, gold remains weak in the middle term," one dealer commented, referring to the planned Swiss and U.K. gold sales. The U.K. Treasury plans to auction 25 tonnes of gold on May 23, while the Swiss National Bank plans to sell a maximum of 120 tonnes of the metal on the market between May and September. In the near term, dealers see gold remaining to move in a narrow range below 280. Short-covering from Japan underpinned spot platinum prices, but the buying did not extend to the palladium market, dealers noted. "Even Japanese have had little interest to trade palladium," another dealer said, adding without Japanese players, the Asian palladium market remains dull. In Japan, gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rose on Wednesday in response to an increase in the COMEX and NYMEX in the United States, TOCOM dealers said. They noted that Wednesday's weaker yen against the U.S. dollar triggered buying on TOCOM, particularly on gold and platinum contracts. Trading in the four metals was relatively sluggish, they added. "Many individual investors have focused on the currency market and reduced investment in precious metals markets," one TOCOM dealer said.

Black Blade: So slow overnight even Bridge, This is about all Bridge can come up with. It seems that everyone is just waiting on the sidelines for something to happen or maybe for the markets to make a move. Meanwhile the Nikkei dropped over 140 points again. But why play on the TOCOM? They keep a changin� the rules of the game, and if you don't like it, they pick up their marbles and go home! Free Market my A**.

Black Blade: Hey Leigh! If the streets are really paved with gold beyond the pearly gates - I'm takin� me a Jack Hammer! ;-)
ORO
SS of nep
I dare say they would not take the world down with them because then they would have nowhere to go.
Christopher
Leigh msg#30240, Black Blade msg#30245
Ah Leigh, I often look forward to that day, when I tread upon those Golden streets.

Black Blade, Why would you want to pack around pavement?
If they make it, the gold shorts will be happy in Heaven.
ORO
SteveH - gold pump
Point is that the degree to which the Fed will help the BBs is still in question. Furthermore, these call options are "theoretical" in that they are not listed seperately in any public report.

Their existence is implied from market behavior, not from the reports available.



Leigh
Gold Shorts in Heaven?
I don't know, Christopher.

Black Blade, no need for a jackhammer. You'll hardly even notice the gold streets as you gaze upon the shining jewels, listen to the angelic music, and partake of the luscious fruits growing along the riverbank.
JavaMan
Hi All...
http://servant.gentle.org/encouragement/polycarp.htm
There was an interesting spectacle on television last night, "The Smartest Kid in America". It looked to me like more entertainment for and from the "Millionaire" crowd. Fifty of the top brains in the country all age 12 or less. A sample of the talent included, a girl who was expecting to graduate from college by age 16. Another who had read 600 books by age 7. And the list goes on, one with perfect SAT scores, mathematics geniuses, music geniuses, etc., etc.

The elimination began with questions put to all 50 contestants and they would record their answers electronically. Immediately after each question, the percentages were displayed on the tv screen indicating how many answered a question correctly and how many answered it incorrectly. I don't recall the nature of many of the questions but they were doing quite well with the percentage of correct answers being anywhere from approximately 55% to 90%. Then came the question, "What is the following part of the US Constitution called: We the people of the United States...". The first and perhaps only question where the majority of the whiz kids (55%) answered incorrectly.

Then, on to the direct, "face off" competition, one on one where the first to know the answer presses the buzzer gets to answer the question. These kids were answering questions like "What is the first number that is both a perfect square and a perfect cube?", what is the sum of the first 10 prime numbers, (no pencil and paper allowed) in just a couple of seconds.

But then, another (impossible) question, "What document is the following from: When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands...", no one got the answer right.

These kids could tell you what planet has the moons Phobos and Deimos, but they didn't know which two countries share Tierra del Fuego. Nobody could say who wrote the Iliad and the Odyssey.

I got up and left when the one rocket scientist said the person he most wanted to meet was Bill Gates.

Leigh, no gold shorts in heaven...I think that is the unpardonable sin, isn't it?.

Sir ss, Polycarp may not have had a smile on his face, but if you check out the link above (nice music too), I think you'll see he had a smile in his heart...

ORO
Indicators of gold derivative changes
The gold derivatives reports continue to indicate a shift from European obligations to US obligations, chief among them those gold obligations of Morgan Guarantee.

Throughout the last 3 years, there has been a transition of gold games from the London arena and UK and EU institutions to US institutions. From a market share of 20% of gold derivatives and 3000 tonnes in 1995-6, US banks have grown their notional contracts to nearly 10000 tonnes and a more than 50% share of the gold derivative marketplace. regression of the derivatives position from 1995 to 1999 Q3 indicates that at least 75% of outstanding obligations stemming from these are short positions.

Morgan, after absorbing the BT/Deutsche position during the 99 dip in Q2, has likely taken on the Republic/HSBC position as well.

As Reg Howe has noted, there is a distinct trend of rolling over the derivatives towards far off maturities. This puts down the near term supply deficit pressure on the POG.

I would guess that UK has been spared the embarassment of its main financial houses going under during a gold squeeze and that US banks have been picking up the positions upchucked by UK and EU banks in order to prevent the gold price spiking too early - before the UK is delivered into the EU.

The UK bailout by both the US and the EU is a sure sign that some deal was cut to allow London's survival as a financial center in the future.
Henri
Uranium/Natural gas
I read some time ago (2 years) that the stockpiled uranium (already mined) in the Ex Soviet states and elsewhere (south African area/australia) is sufficient to run the existing nuclear infrastructure for the next 20 years. That is why the existing production supply was curtailed to the extent it was. The curtailed mining still in place is merely to maintain the "mothballed status" of the ops in the event of cheap supply disruption. A platinum style Russian supply cutoff is not in the cards because there is not a significant draw on the russian stockpiles (yet).
Anything else you hear is hype.

Natural Gas prices spiked mainly because of the unusual spring heat wave that caught most electric utilities with their shorts down. During the spring and fall in traditionally low power draw months (no heating or AC)many generating facilities shut down for their yearly maintenance activities. The suprise heat wave caused a tremendous draw on the grid and gas turbines were fired up and ran flat out during the weather "transient" Those suckers use a LOT of natural gas to run.
JavaMan
ss of nep...

Thankyou.
Leland
"Internet Security"...Words From Bill Gates...I Like it!
http://www.stockhouse.com/shfn/may00/051000com_micro.aspGates stressed that the greatest obstacle to the continued development
of the Internet as the foundation for the new economy is a sense of
security. At the moment, corporate data is notoriously insecure.
Passwords are a weak link made weaker by poor administration and a
lack of understanding of their significance. Gates derided the ease with
which a malicious individual can often gain access to mission critical
systems by placing a call to a support center and saying that they had
forgotten their password. Users also fail to grasp the significance of their passwords--"people are writing
them down," and reusing them on other systems Gates noted. "We need to move away from
passwords."

...Click for more
USAGOLD
Today's Report: Currency Wars Pushing Investors to Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlMarket Report (5/10/00): Gold firmed slightly on a weaker dollar and some anticipation over
tomorrow's producer price report. The euro is in a recovery mode the past two days on hints
within the European Union that the central bank might move to support the ailing currency. French
finance minister Laurent Fabius was quoted as saying currency intervention was a "weapon" in
Europe's arsenal and that the euro "could rise in coming weeks." French Prime Minister Jospin
also voiced his dissatisfaction with the euro's performance. This served as warning to speculators
who began squaring positions in case the ECB made a sudden move to defend the currency. In the
past two days, the euro has risen by one and a half cents. Illustrating the sort of problems the
Europeans are having in co-ordinating currency policy, a member of the German Bundesbank
board took a tack opposite the French proclaiming yesterday morning that there was no point in
defending the euro unless the United States and Japan went along with it.

Euro weakness has been a key factor in sustaining the gold price in recent weeks as European
demand picked up among portfolio hedgers who don't trust either the euro or the dollar, and it
could continue to figure into the financial scheme as long as currency policy confusion persists on
the European continent. Strong physical demand continues in Asia where investors, still smarting
from the contagion that deprived them of a good part of their savings in the late 1990s, hedge
against any further onslaught along the same lines. In addition, the formation of a currency
defense bloc among key Asian nations reported last Sunday not only served as warning against
currency speculators, it signaled future battles in the currency wars that can be remedied most
simply with a personal gold diversification. A quick visit to a gold chart in any one of the
currencies damaged by the contagion provides more than inducement to the ordinary investor.

On the negative side of the ledger, weak currencies in two key gold producing states -- Australia
and South Africa -- have prompted some producer forward selling, according to Reuters' reports,
but one wonders who would sacrifice their production at these prices given the currency problems
around the world and the latent gold demand building as a result. Our guess is that this hedging is
minor though it makes for good press among those gold shorts given to talking their books.

We continue to advise the purchase of gold at these bargain basement prices in anticipation of a
spike upward at some point in the future, not to speak of the high degree of comfort attained when
one knows they have taken the currency question in their own hands (and their fate out of the
hands of the bureaucrats and politicians) by a simple diversification. There are more positives than
negatives for gold at this point and a judicious purchase or two stored nearby might turn out to be
the great equalizer, not just in Europe and Asia but the United States as well. Central bankers do
not embark upon .5% interest rate increases unless they see inflation building underneath the
veneer of a healthy economy.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.
Henri
Salmon Post# 30203
The borrowers of this SDB gold would not be playing the same game as the "paper giants" unless they used the brick as collateral for a currency loan with which to buy interest bearing securities. When the "investments" go sour, the loaner of the currency gets the gold, and the borrower, still owes a gold brick. It has the same effect as increasing the available gold supply 2X giving the appearence that there is an abundance of gold, when there is really only one brick
Henri
Salmon #30203
If the borrowers of the gold bricks just put it inside the SDB and could resist the temptation to recover some of their carrying costs 1%/month x100 oz x $285/oz=$3420 + box rental $80 or a cool $3500 each year(I would rather buy the 12 oz's free and clear). I am assuming that the 1% is a monthly not annual charge. If it is not monthly then the charge for holding in the SBD is close to where you set it $285+$70=$355/yr. Then just sit on it til the price of gold goes up and then give it back to the owner.
You would be giving up the cost of 1 oz/year each brick and...

YES, that might work it could drive the price up. But then there would be a sudden supply when everybody sends their brick back in and the price would fall back again. 100 million oz's hitting the street.
Gandalf the White
RossL's SDR chart !!
Please RossL, the Hobbits need you to expound on what you see in this chart and the conclusions that you draw. Tks
<;-)
TownCrier
Sir RossL (and Gandalf the White)
Nice Chart! Might it be more appropriate to label the veritical axes as "SDR currency equivalents" rather than "SDR/currency" as you have them? Meaning specifically, the values on your chart are equivalent are the prices of a single Special Drawing Right as represented by the four basket currencies...whereas your labels would lead us to think that the lines are tracing out the "amount" of SDR's per each currency unit. Follow me?

Again, this is a great graph! It really shows how the situation with the dollar has become an abomination.

Gandalf, since you are looking at this, too, and wanting more information, just keep in mind that the dollar is the official "king of the world" if that green line can climb to 0.58 (meaning the SDR is equal to $0.58) at any point within the next year. (We aren't exactly holding our breath here in The Tower waiting for that to happen.) If the yen is truly a subsidiary of the dollar franchise (and if it is held in the neighborhood of 100 yen per dollar), then the the green dollar line would only have to climb to 0.85 within the next year to represent the dollar becoming "king of the world."
Again, we aren't holding our breath.
TheStranger
AP: Gold A Bad Investment Because It's Low In Price
Stranger's Note: I would have linked this, but I got it through email. Anyway, I hereby publicly declare the writer an idiot!!!

>Fund Surge Could Be Fools Gold
>
>By DUNSTAN PRIAL
>The Associated Press
>
> NEW YORK (AP) - A recent surge in the performance of mutual funds that focus
>on gold and other precious metals offers investors a clear example of why
>short-term gains and losses should be ignored.
>
>Twelve of the top 20 performing mutual funds for the week ended May 4 were
>gold funds, or funds that invest in the stocks of gold mining companies,
>according to Lipper Inc., a New York firm that tracks fund performance. As a
>sector, gold funds rose 8.3 percent for the week, more than any other
>category.
>
>The sudden and unexpected boost follows a 10-year period during which gold
>funds were arguably one of the most unpopular sectors for mutual fund
>investors.
>
>A quick look at some longer-term statistics shows why: gold funds are down
>12.8 percent since Jan. 1; down 20.8 percent from a year ago; and off 13
>percent over the past five years.
>
>Mutual fund analysts say investors should be wary of sharp increases in fund
>performance figures. Indeed, many industry professionals have decried an
>apparent shift by investors away from long-term investment strategies in
>favor of a short-term mentality that seeks quick gains by jumping in and out
>of hot sectors. The financial media has been criticized by some for
>contributing to that mentality by putting too much emphasis on funds that
>have experienced explosive short-term gains.
>
>The recent selloff in the technology sector and subsequent meltdown of many
>formerly high-flying technology funds has been held up as an example what can
>happen if investors fail to compile a diverse portfolio. The same thing could
>happen to investors who are seduced by the recent performance of gold funds.
>
>Market analysts cite several factors in explaining why gold funds have
>improved so quickly.
>
>The main reason is that the prices of gold stocks were undervalued for months
>and are now returning to a more realistic level, said Todd Hinrichs, an
>analyst at ABN Amro, a Chicago investment banking firm.
>
>Newmont Mining Corp., the largest holding in the Gabelli Gold Fund, which led
>all gold funds last week with a 12.1 percent gain, is a good example of a
>gold mining company whose stock has struggled in recent months but is now on
>the rise. After hovering for months in the high teens and low $20 range, the
>stock rose about $5 in the first week of May.
>
>Hinrichs said the price of gold stocks fluctuate in accordance with the value
>of gold. And since gold has been extremely cheap in recent years, gold stocks
>have suffered accordingly.
>
>While there is no indication that the price of gold is poised to take off,
>some investors are apparently speculating that gold will return to favor if
>inflation accelerates, triggering a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a
>possible end to the 12-year-old bull market on Wall Street.
>
>Recent stock market volatility is another factor that has contributed to the
>jump in the price of gold stocks. The huge decline in the technology-focused
>Nasdaq composite index during the past six weeks has undoubtedly led some
>investors to seek out stability in precious metals.
>
>The threat of additional interest rates hikes, which could slow U.S. growth,
>has likely served as additional motivation for some investors to channel
>money into gold stocks.
>
>``Gold is the ultimate safe haven when all else fails. For people who think
>the world is going to hell in a handbasket, these funds offer a sanctuary,''
>said Burt Greenwald, a Philadelphia-based mutual fund analyst.
>
>But Greenwald warned against mistaking a week's worth of gains as a
>resurgence of an extremely beaten down sector. It's unlikely that money
>flowing into gold funds has increased, despite the recent boost in
>performance numbers, he said.
>
>``I don't think there's been a mad rush on gold funds because it's not as if
>they've been a reasonable investment. In fact, they've been a terrible
>investment for the past 10 years,'' Greenwald said.
ss of nep
@STEVEH :re: The Small Arms Disarmament Agenda
TownCrier
Sir Stranger...RE: the AP reporter
Follow up to your assessment. Do you think his friends call him Dunce for short?
SteveH
ORO, you said...
"Their existence is implied from market behavior, not from the reports available."


What other cause could there be for such market behavior?


ced_s
We all need to help GATA
Hi all, I have just talked with the offices of all of the members of the Senate Banking Committee, and expressed my concerns that they carefully consider what GATA is
telling them. With the exception of Evan Bayh's offic., no answer there.
I have borrowed this listing from Don's posting at Gold Eagle Forum, I hope Don doesn't mind due to the importance of a massive Pro-GATA campaign

The Senate Banking Committee

Phil Graham chrmn. (R) TX..................202-224-2934
Richard Shelby (R) AL......................202-224-5744
Connie Mack (R) FL.........................202-224-5274
Robert Bennett (R) UT......................202-224-5444
Rod Grams (R) MN...........................202-224-3244
Wayne Allard (R) CO........................202-224-5941
Micheal Enzi (R) WY........................202-224-3424
Chuck Hagel (R) NE.........................202-224-4224
Micheal Crapo (R) ID.......................202-224-6142
Rick Santorum (R) PA.......................202-224-6324
Jim Bunning (R) KY.........................202-224-4343

Paul Sarbanes (D) MD.......................202-224-4524
Chris Dodd (D) CT..........................202-224-2823
John Kerry (D) MA..........................202-224-2742
Richard Bryan (D) NV.......................202-224-6244
Tim Johnson (D) SD.........................202-224-5842
Jack Reed (D) RI...........................202-224-4642
Charles Schumer (D) NY.....................202-224-6542
Evan Bayh (D) IN...........................202-228-5623
John Edwards (D) NC........................202-224-3154
YGM
Noteworthy.............
??? May 10-MAR--

[B]


Credit Suisse First Boston to take seat on London gold fix

By BridgeNews
New York--May 10--Credit Suisse First Boston said that it will become
a member of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd. and take a seat on the
London gold fixing in June. It will take up the fixing seat that was made
available as a result of the merger of HSBC and Republic National Bank of
NY. Under the rules, each member is only permitted to own one fixing seat.
* * *
The London gold fix takes place twice daily in the UK at 1030 and 1500
BST and is the universally accepted daily benchmark price for gold,
adopted around the world by bullion market participants in the pricing of
a wide variety of transactions, said the London Gold Market Fixing.
Clive Turner, chairman of the London gold fixing said that the arrival
of such a strong committed gold market participant would only serve to
underline the strength and purpose of the London gold fixing and confirm
London's position as the center of the international bullion market.
Simon Ford, a managing director at CSFB said, "CSFB is pleased to have
the opportunity to become a member of the 80 year old London fix." He went
on to add that the company views the London gold fix as a core function
for the market and one of the most "accessible and transparent benchmarks
in the financial markets." Taking a seat on the London fix is an
expression of CSFB's "firm commitment to the gold market and to all
aspects of the international bullion business," he said.

Credit Suisse has a long history of involvement in the gold market and
is involved in all aspects of the bullion business with gold trading
activities in
Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong, Zurich, London and New York.
CSFB owns one of the world's largest gold refineries, Valcambi S.A.,
Switzerland and is a major supplier of physical gold around the world.
CSFB is the only bank that clears and operates precious metals vaulting
facilities in both the London and Zurich markets.
From June, 2000 the five fixing members will be: Credit Suisse First
Boston, through its subsidiary Credit Suisse First Boston International;
Deutsche Bank; HSBC USA; NM Rothschild and Sons; and Scotia Mocatta.
Fully owned by the Credit Suisse Group, Credit Suisse First Boston
International was established in July 1990. It was formerly known as
Credit Suisse Financial Products. End

Copyright 2000 Bridge Information Systems Inc. All rights reserved.
[symbols:US;CTM:CH;CSG]

The Bridge ID for this story is BGFTFDD


(c) Copyright 2000 FWN


YGM
Noteworthy.....How do we remember "KEVIN CRISP"
http://www.equity.csfb.com
What do you know!.... Londons own Kevin Crisp is head of
"Global Market Strategy" for Credit Suisse First Boston.

See who's who in their Derivatives Section at CSFB site...
http://www.equity.csfb.com/fixed_income/html/fid_preciousmetals.shtml

Was Crisp not a badguy in the GATA efforts?.......
Anyone remember his role (media) of late?

YGM.
ORO
SteveH - let me contradict myself
There are the open interest reports, and they do show large numbers of calls, which raises the question "who sold them".

As to the market behavior, I see what looks like "dumps" where the seller is not concerned with liquidation but with "breaking the bid", to supply a sufficient number of contracts to cover all the outstanding bids up to a price point and then continue selling into the market to avoid a rebound that may activate buy stops. Selling of underpriced OTC call options allows the buyer to short the underlying futures contract without risk. The gold market tends to show odd spikes that look like a spring escaping from under pressure, then caught suddenly a short while later. Because of the lag between the sharp upswing and the initiation of contradicrory action, it seems likely that call options are sold but it takes a few minutes for the offer to be made and for the arbitrageur to arrange financing to bridge the spread.

With many tech stocks, particularly Fidelity and Janus favorites, there is a tendency for them to suddenly materialize large bids set well above the current ask during market tumbles. Some descriptions of the 1927-9 stock markets point out simillar shenanigans.

The point here is that the behaviors are not motivated by profit from the transaction but motivated by the need to protect certain price points, and in so doing prevent a loss from appearing on the books.
YGM
AH YES!!............KEVIN CRISP............(Gold Basher Extreme)
http://www.egroups.com/messagesearch/gata?query=Kevin%Crisp Here's a good selection of GATA messages (above link) from Bill concerning "Crisp".....see insert from one such commentary........" I like "Crisp Toast" Myself......YGM


Knowing what was going on, one of the Leader of the
Pack, JP Morgan, came out singing at exactly the right
time. Their precious metals analyst, Kevin Crisp,
released a report today in London predicting gold
prices would fall in early 1999 as the "market focused
on supply and demand issues, deflation in Southeast
Asia and the drop in inflation in Europe and the United
States."

Reuters, London, Jan. 12 -- "Even though significant
event risk remain in global markets -- economic,
political, and financial -- we see no reason to believe
that gold will respond any differently than it has in
the recent past," Crisp said. "We forecast the gold
price will average $280 in 1999, but will trade as low
as $265 per troy ounce before the end of March."
YGM
Kevin Crisp....."Gold Basher"
Mabe GATA Can...........get you a little publicity for your new found position........
BTW...do you still work for JP morgan as well? I'm sure a gold basher/talking head from the Hannible camp will fit right in on the "FIX".........you pricks get more transparent every click of the page..............YGM.

GO GATA .......Four Spokesmen Extrordinare go to Washington, and with all the emails to Reps they will be heard, again and again.
RossL
SDR chart
http://users.erinet.com/3354/gold2400.htm
TC: you are correct, I had it backwards. I updated the chart with today's info also. Sorry to take so long to get back to you, but I had some real work to do ths afternoon.

Gandalf: There is an article in this morning's WSJ on the International page in the first section. The article discusses the fall of the Euro vs. the Yen. The article is not very informative, but I found the chart curious. It plotted the both the Yen and Euro vs. the $US, giving somewhat a distorted picture.

Also, I found the curious the chart on page 1 of the WSJ third section that showed the $US JP Morgan Index flatlining for the last 3 days. SO I decided to dig up some data and do my own chart.

Besides what Sir TC mentioned earlier, it's interesting that the plots of the Euro and Yen appear to be mirror images up until the last week or so. Looking at some long term charts, this behavior started about last September. I wonder if anyone can offer some analysis on that observation?
BTD
What is the significance of the SDR?
http://www.imf.org/external/map.htmRossL has given us a nice chart of the relationship of the SDR to the main currencies. Could someone briefly review the theories surrounding the SDR? I know it has been discussed on the forum before, but I've only picked up bits and pieces. What is the relationship of SDR to currencies showing us? Is there supposed to be a fixed ratio with the dollar? TownCrier, what is the significance of the 0.58 level you mentioned in your message #30262? What are special drawing rights, anyway? What relationship does the SDR have to the price of gold? What impact does its movements have on the price of gold?

By the way, if you click on the link above and go to the Fund Rates heading, you can find the links to the raw data RossL used for his chart.
Leland
Michael, Better Increase the Band Width, This Forum is Going to be VERY POPULAR..

Name
Last
Change
Dow Jones Industrials Index
10367.78
-168.970
AMEX Composite Index
912.7
-11.520
NASDAQ Composite Index
3384.7
-200.300
S&P 500 Index
1383.05
-29.090

Canadian Markets
Name
Last
Change
Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Index
9097.1
-197.300
Canadian Venture Exchange
3366.2
-83.500

International Markets
Name
Last
Change
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
14,492.92
-283.98
London (FTSE)
6,100.60
-23.2
Australian All Ordinaries (XAO)
3,022.100
n/a
Felix the Cat
SHIFTY
After I noticed your post(5/10/2000; 0:53:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 30226), I still don't know---What's the exactly reason of your worries of China?
<:-)
schippi
Select Gold Hourly Chart
YGM
UK..Treasury Gold Auctions....Losses thus far...World Gold Council
http://www.minesite.com/feature4.htm$39 Million lost and as we all know, this will be substanually increased when Gold soars... charts and further commentary at link......YGM.


The World Gold Council has kindly given Minews its calculations on the losses incurred so far by the Chancellor on his sales of UK gold. The figure is US$39 million, or �25 million, which in itself is enough to build a small hospital. However this figure could pale into insignificance if the mighty US dollar shows signs of weakness and gold starts to come into its own. Mr. Brown may then wish he had not listened so closely to his merchant banking friend Mr. Davies.
fox
goldprice in Sydney
up up and away ?
TheStranger
Perhaps The Most Important News Of The Day
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000510/news/current/sec.htx?dist=hdlnbug&source=htx/http2_mw"[Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur]
Levitt has repeatedly used his office's bully pulpit to
turn up scrutiny on accountants, auditors and
corporate financial officers, expressing concern -- if
not outrage -- at signs of a "culture of
gamesmanship" when it comes to earnings numbers.
Such a culture has resulted in companies playing
fast and loose with earnings figures so as to not
disappoint Wall Street expectations, in the
regulator's view."

Stranger's Note: Every period of Wall Street excess somehow manages to end in revelations of systemic abuse. When the history of the current period is written, the story behind the article linked above will no doubt figure prominently. While earnings statements across the technology sector in particular were artfully prepared, accountants simply went along. So, for that matter, did the analytic community. As a result of this, I suspect there will be a lot of earnings restatements in the period ahead. Ouch!
TownCrier
Revisiting an old Golden Chalkboard
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_turkey.htmlThe page has been updated to include the pertinent commentary that acted as the germ for the graphic.

In time, I hope to establish a series of such lessons, and create a directory index for these similar to the Gilded Opinion index.

Sir RossL, seeing your SDR chart (nice modifications, by the way) and the discussion surrounding it made me remember that I had this unfinished business in regard to this Golden Chalkboard. If the discussion of your chart (and SDR's in general) shapes up to have lasting educational merit (as opposed to being a one-off event to satisfy immediate curiosities, then perhaps you might be willing to let me use your chart in conjuction with a similar Golden Chalkboard page?
Hill Billy Mitchell
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: May 10, 2000

Rates For Tuesday, May 9, 2000

Federal funds 5.92

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 6.14
10-year 6.53
20-year 6.64
30-year 6.22

right-side up spread FF vs long bond = +.30%
ThaiGold
Amazing News Item: BLACK-GOLD BLUES
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_smith_news/20000509_xnsof_clinton_ap.shtml....
...
..
This is an incredible news item and revelation.!.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_smith_news/20000509_xnsof_clinton_ap.shtml

BLACK-GOLD BLUES
Clinton approves
oil-price hikes

Official: Administration backs increases
to help Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, Iran

By Charles Smith
� 2000 WorldNetDaily.com
Oil ministers from OPEC nations have quietly told national security
advisors on Capitol Hill that the oil production cutbacks -- and resulting
price increases -- are being implemented at the request of the Clinton
administration on behalf of Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Iran.

Russia, Mexico and Indonesia are reported to be directing their
increased oil profits toward paying back overdue Western loans.
According to one government defense advisor, the windfall profits are
part of a larger scheme to use the American public to pay off failed and
corrupt investment schemes in the three countries.

"The American public is paying off bad loans to bad countries made by
bad bankers," stated the national security advisor.
According to Vice President Al Gore, the recent hike in gas prices is
due not to a shortage of oil, but rather to the Clinton administration's
deliberate move to encourage an oil price increase.

"I think the reason is because we more or less asked the organization
of petroleum producing countries to raise oil prices in helping Russia
develop its economy," stated Gore on March 1 in response to a
question about rising gas prices.

The largest Middle Eastern oil producers reportedly agreed on the
cutback of oil production in order to increase income for weapons
purchases. Several oil states have announced major weapons buys
from the West, including a recent multi-billion-dollar purchase of
Lockheed/Martin F-16 fighter jets.

"Iran is also trading oil to China in exchange for missile technology,"
stated the national security advisor.

The gas hike has raised several concerns about the Clinton energy
policy and U.S. national security.

In recent years, OPEC has flooded the market with oil, lowering
prices worldwide. The lower prices, according to Denise Bode, a
commissioner on the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, were
designed to discourage investors in U.S. domestic oil production,
maintaining a world monopoly for OPEC.

"The OPEC cartel clearly understands that the Clinton energy policy is
based on instant gratification," stated Bode, "seeking low gasoline
prices and ignoring future consequences with a foreign cartel in charge
of our national energy resources.

"In 1997, OPEC acted to consolidate the American market by sending
much cheaper oil, dumping it at historically low prices. The most
significant energy policy initiated by the Clinton administration is a 4.3
cent increase in the gasoline tax," said Bode.

"Another 30,000 Americans have lost their jobs. Domestic oil
production has moved from holding steady to a 5.4 percent decline.
Even though OPEC has recently cut back production and raised the
price of oil to $30 a barrel, there has been no increase in domestic
production."

"It's very clear what OPEC should do if they want to retain control,"
stated Donald Hodel, former secretary of energy and secretary of
interior during the Reagan administration.

"Periodically, they should announce they are going to produce excess
volumes of crude oil. The announcement itself will scare away some
capital investment from new production. Secondarily, if that doesn't
work, and from time to time to prove their point, they would have to
overproduce, drive the price down dramatically, so that marginal wells
in the United States will be shut down and new investment will be
shut down worldwide."

According to Hodel, the "green" movement has combined with OPEC
to "erect straw arguments" against the U.S. energy industry.
"I've never met anyone who said I want to breathe dirty air or drink
polluted water," noted Hodel. "Yet, the green movement has
succeeded in using clean air, clean water and garbage control as a
means to seek de-industrialization in the U.S."

"The problem is that the schools have been captured by the flaming
environmentalists," noted Hodel. "We are not doing a decent job of
getting the educational establishment to acknowledge the facts about
the importance of energy production to our economy.

"If we were rational about our energy policy, we would have a
growing component in our society of nuclear power. The people who
fought nuclear power have successfully stopped coal. They are now
turning toward natural gas and oil. We made the point over and over
that offshore drilling is less of an environmental hazard than
transporting imported oil by tanker."

Hodel concluded, "Our dependency on foreign oil affects our national
security and our environment."

Charles Smith is a national security and defense
reporter for WorldNetDaily.

� 2000 WorldNetDaily.com, Inc.
RossL
Sir TownCrier
Feel free to use the chart. I created it to use as a tool for the discussion!
lamprey_65
My thoughts on China entering the WTO

On the surface it would appear that the Chinese worker has become a slave to the American consumer. That's only
what's apparent. Behind the curtain, it's really America becoming a slave to the Chinese government.

We're toast...sold out for cheap labor many years ago.
SHIFTY
Ponzi
Nasdaq 3,384.73 + Dow 10,367.78 = 13,752.51 divide by 2 = 6876.25 Ponzi
Down 184.63 Ponzi points
White Hills
Currency War
We know the EU's objective ,thanks to Trail Guide and others, and some of the strategy to reach their objective. But there is more to warfare than that, they must have tactics that will implement their strategy. As stated by Trail Guide the WA was a shot across the bow that gave warning of what there was to come. Did anybody listen or are we to busy with politics, the economy and other domestic concerns to realize that we are in a currency war? I know GATA is trying to warn the Congress of the coming problems that will be created in the months ahead as the Euro gets stronger and stronger. I feel the last Battle Tactic used by the EU will be the repacement of the US$ as the currency in oil settlements. Is there anybody in our Government that realizes the impact of that? White Hills
USAGOLD
Responses:
Leland: On bandwidth -- no problem here. Just post what you wish. State of the art technology at your service.

ThaiGold: How many tips can an iceberg have? This is a new one on me. Triple the oil price; gouge the American consumer; pay-off the multinational banks. Nice business plan.

HillBilly Mitchell: Thanks for the daily updates. As the yield curve inverts, so does the nature of government finance. I heard some apologist for the Keynsian World Order tell Rush Limbaugh today that the national debt didn't matter because "rate" of dollar turnover exceeded the "rate" of debt growth, hence more taxes flow into the government, etc. nonsense, etc. Rush nods his head. He tries but he doesn't really get it when it comes to the whole economic thing.

The fact of the matter is that though this fellow was good at regurgitating what his statist economic professors told him somewhere along the line, he still hasn't learned how to read a balance sheet, particularly the government's balance sheet.

Here's the facts:

No matter what is said about the "rates" of growth of one thing over the other, when you freeze government finance in time (which is the essence of a balance sheet), the government in fiscal 99 still borrowed roughly $70 billion (according to the most Treasury Bulletin) from the social security fund to balance the budget and in reality actually did run a deficit no matter what the apologists from both political parties tell us. That's in a good year and that's buying the government's statistics. So what does it matter what the "rates" of tax revenue vs. rate of debt growth have to do with anything? If I start running faster but the tank running up my backside is moving faster what have I gained? It's not the rate of tax collections that have grown proportionately, but the scope of the lie.

Now, reasonable financial people from around the world are saying (secretly, not publicly) "How long can this be sustained?" and answering "Not long, certainly not forever." As a result, our creditors understand the wisdom of the shorter fuse and we appreciate your reports in this regard. When our central bank raises rates .5% next week, those in the Treasury Department will come to understand all too well the effect. With short term notes rolling over as we speak, they will push that interest rate component of the debt ever higher.

When people say to me that this nonsense could go on forever, I point to this expansion of the debt and the interest rate component of the national budget, simply because at some point 100% of the taxes collected would go to service the debt. Then what? The final and ultimate rationalization from the new paradigm crowd?

It can't go on forever, and anybody who has ever taken a serious look at the government's balance sheet knows it can't go on forever. Bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. The essential question is "What can be done about it?" With both political parties buying into the fiction of a budget surplus, the answer is nothing. At least we had a chance when there was a Reaganite wing to the Republican party asking tough questions, but that wing is gone. We are headed down a one way street to default and only those holding gold will come out the other side -- that goes for nation states as well individuals.

As for our well prepared Keynsian friend on the Rush Limbaugh program today, I would caution that you can blow smoke in Rush's direction because he hasn't gotten over the Republicans vs. Demcocrats scenario, but it's hard to blow smoke the way of a goldmeister.

Stranger: With respect to your post about earnings: Is this part of that Amazon .bomb scenario making the rounds?
Farfel
I Called This One Perfectly, I AM BACK!! YES!!!

Farfel (4/26/2000; 10:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29372)
TWO trading days left until Nasdaq Lockup Expiration!
According to the Wall Street Journal, beginning in May, approximately $150 billion of locked-up
Nasdaq stock will be allowed to be sold. Incredible!

That compares to only $45 billion in April (and look what market disasters occurred this past month).

MAY is shaping up to be a huge crisis in the stock markets as funds inflows do not begin to compare
to expected stock sales by insiders this coming month.

Thanks

F*

-------

To all my USAGOLD friends:

I am happy to accept this year's APH GURU AWARD, having called the month of May to perfection so far.

Net result: owing to an extremely aggressive bear strategy, I am now down only 30% from when I first began a strong contrarian market strategy some time ago. What a comeback, a recovery of over half my total losses to date!! Talk about the dark clouds lifting.

Now comes the interesting part: expiring lock-ups this month of May have only cleared a mere 25% of total inventory so far!!!!! Another $100 billion of lock-up stock will hit the market over the next three weeks at three key critical times. Position yourself accordingly, there will be at least three major rallies in advance of each expiration date as market insiders try and ramp up the market in order to dump expiring lock up stock. Each rally will be followed by huge dumps as the tech stock swamps the market. The Fed should stand aside and let this one play out, I personally believe there is a rift between the Fed and the Treasury, not to mention the Fed and the government.

Meanwhile, the bear funds are simply raking in the bucks. They are making huge gains, especially the ones utilizing strong put strategies.

I spoke with one of the managers and he tells me they are adopting a fairly standard strategy of shorting tech stocks, collecting the profits, then rolling them into both new short positions and market on close purchases of gold and gold stocks. SO pay no attention to gold stock weakness during the day as most bear funds are buying heavily in the final 15-30 minutes of trading. If you're smart, you'll beat them to the punch and force their slow accumulation to ramp up even faster.

Any day now, gold and gold stocks will simply zoom into the stratosphere as upside momentum is firmly established.

Remember: a good slice of increasing profits in bear funds will always make their way into gold stocks and rising gold stocks will lift the gold price. In fact, pretty soon I think gold will ignore ALL bad news just as it is doing with the current Swiss gold sale. Then we know a gold bull is finally established.

The bear funds are taking all the money from the bull funds in this zero sum game highlighted by contracting monetary liquidity and they are using a good deal of it to wage war against the gold shorts. Throw into the picture several angry hedge funds and billionaires who are taking aggressive contrarian investment approaches and I think the bullion banks are in for hell.

Will gold go limit up? I think so but don't ask me when. If it's this month, then we could get worse market mayhem than that which I predicted accurately in April.


Thanks

F*
USAGOLD
I should have mentioned in my previous post that. . .
of the $288.8 billion collected by the government in taxes in fiscal 99, $118.3 billion went to pay interest on the national debt -- or 41% of revenue collected. It was the largest single item on the balance sheet followed by defense at $72.4 billion and human services at $61.8 billion. The deficit was $69.6 billion.
Farfel
Last word of advice: ignore all stock market rallies in MAY!
The market rallies this month will all be set-ups for dumping enormous amounts of lock-up stock.

No matter how strong those rallies appear, they are suckers rallies. Don't get fooled!

Forget the CPI, PPI, Fed meeting or any other such crap.

The bottom line is this: this month, there's far too much stock out there looking to get sold, much more than any conceivable demand for that stock. On top of that, monetary expansion decreased dramatically in January and the four month lag effect rule is now transpiring.

Of course, I am excluding gold stocks, where the demand shift for a new momentum sector will lift these companies to inconceiveable heights (the 1.00 stock becoming the 40.00 stock, etc), and the rising gold stocks will lift the price of gold itself.

This momentum shift might take place slowly over several months or it could surprise us all and take place within a matter of weeks. Who knows, just position yourself.

Thanks

F*

lamprey_65
Tola! Tola!
http://www.goldline.co.uk/goldline/SilverStream/Pages/GLHomeFrame.htmlHope the link works. Nice looking bar - anyone know how many grams in a troy ounce? Cost is 699 Pounds (about $1055)

I think Harmony is on to something with this...I've pitched it to another miner with no success so far.

What do you think about carrying these, MK?
RossL
Yield Curve

The yield curve looks like a mountain road these days with the 6-month higher than the 1-year, and with the 2-year at the top over the 5, 10, and 30-year. What kind of pressures build up to make these mountains?
lamprey_65
(No Subject)
http://www.goldline.co.uk/goldline/SilverStream/Objectstore/Images/tt_3_bars.jpgTry this link...had to cheat to get it out of the frame!
TownCrier
"The Week in Gold" has been updated!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlNotable from this weeks' market commentary provided by the WGC:

"Reflecting the growing gold consumption in the Middle East, a new gold market is being constructed in Muscat in Oman, which ranks fourth in terms of Gulf gold consumption after Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Kuwait. This will bring all the existing local gold retailers under one roof and is expected to become a major tourist attraction. The World Gold Council is acting as consultants to the project."
Leland
Something to Watch...Yikes!
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
10:03PM
17067.63
-633.84
-3.58%
Chart , News
Farfel
Bond market the only obstacle so far to soaring gold price
I spoke with a friend on the phone who scoffed at how weakly gold is performing as the stock markets fall.

He is a young pup so I tried to explain carefully how the gold bull is contingent upon simultaneous weakness in the stock markets, the bond markets, and the US dollar.

So far, a pretty strong bond market is soaking up liquidity escaping from the stock markets.

However, once the US dollar starts to head south, then foreigners will be less inclined to hold bonds since their gains in bonds during any stock market weakness will be completely eradicated by US currency loss.

We are talking about an impending vicious circle that will take investors' breath away and leave gold as the most favored beneficiary of a full financial market bear.

Thanks

F*
USAGOLD
Lamprey. . .
They look really neat. Always been partial to elephants. Don't know what 10 tolas represents?? Opening my ABCs of Gold Investing to the V is for Vital Statistics chapter, I see that one troy ounce equals 31.1034 grams.

If you want Tola Tola, Tola Tola we'll get (assuming they are available to the public).
USAGOLD
Ross L. . . Forces causing rate inversion. .
Two immediately come to mind:

1. Overall lack of confidence, uncertainty

2. Rate hike anticipation, not just on Tuesday next week, but over the medium to long term.

TC. . . Do you know what a Tola might be? A "tael" is 1.2 ounces troy. Is a Tola a Tael in disguise?
TownCrier
10 tolas is about 3-3/4 troy ounces
Gotta love that golden metal...real money, no matter what physical shape it's in or what entity made the coin/bar.
USAGOLD
Towncrier. . .
Remarkable. . . I always knew all I had to do is ask, but that was . . . well. . . .remarkable (smile)
lamprey_65
Tola
Thanks for the conversion, MK. I just found they have the Tola on the order page as 3.7463 ounces (hefty sucker!)
lamprey_65
MK
Yes, it would be appreciated if you could look into the Tola. Baird requires Sterling drawn on a British Bank...not too convenient for us "Colonists"!
Farfel
When gold goes, it wil go!
Forget investment bank projections of 320 by end of the year or Barrick's 340 number. These are figures intended to discourage, not inspire.

This gold thing is a real powder keg and such a preposterously low capitalized sector that momentum funds inflows will send it stratospheric.

For most gold investors, there will be incredible temptation to get out around 300 or 320 and at most 340. You will hear stories of impending government interference to take down the gold market. You will hear stories of huge hedges created by various gold producers somewhere in the 300's. IMHO ignore them!

Yes, I know, how much patience can any person have, especially those poor souls who have held this stuff since 1981?

But summon up the courage, and summon up the last vestiges of your infinitely overtaxed patience, and hold on because it is a vertical ride in the making.

Remember, just as Greenspan has fought for a year to stall the vertical stock market mania, conversely he and his Treasury associates will not be able to tame a raging gold bull overnight.

Resist the temptation to dump the next time around. Believe me, you will want to dump with every fiber of your being, especially since you have been so badly fooled by previous false rallies.

But the real thing appears to be around the corner.

Thanks

F*

USAGOLD
Tola, Tola, Tola. . .
Just a future downpayment on that ranch you always wanted, Lamprey...

Hefty but merchandisable. . .Imagine such a thing for just over $1000. As I've said before, sometimes I hold a handful of 10 one ounce gold coins and marvel that it still runs less than $3000 these days.
TownCrier
U.S. Treasuries' rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/C13.htmlThe question isn't "Why are 2-year Notes so high with the shorter Bills looking like a steep uphill climb?", but rather, "Who are the dim-bulbs holding the 5-year Notes and the longer term Bonds, and why aren't they dumping these losers?"

Perhaps they don't want to take the "in-your-face" paper loss of the principle investment, choosing instead to take their losses in the form of inflation (lost purchasing power) upon maturity. Perhaps the more clever bond holders dumped their positions during the previous selloff (which lifted the effective yield near 7%). And following the brief recovery in the face of the Treasury Dept's "reverse auction" buyback coupled with stock market volatility, perhaps the only ones holding the long Treasuries positions now are simply and hopelessly asleep at the wheel.
USAGOLD
Gandalf. . . my wizardrous friend. . . Here's one for you and the Hobbits to Mull Over
Janus Funds (just across the street from us) announced today that they were closing down two of their most popular investment funds because they simply could no longer be managed. This theme seems to running rampant in the investment business. The operators of the funds said they could not longer manage them because it was difficult to get out of their positions when they wanted to sell. Didn't Soros say essentially the same thing? What does this mean? 'Tis strange indeed. Are the markets now paralyzed because the mutual funds have become so bloated with inflated currency that the managers can't manage them? How does that make the people feel who happen to own these funds? Buried in this same story was the fact that these funds had gained about one percent since the turn of the year.
aunuggets
TOLA Bars
If memory serves me correctly, the "tola" bars were the staples of the Indian smugglers from the late 60s on, the tola being an indian weight measurement. Remember seeing these bars sewn into "undercoats" that the smugglers used to carry via airline flights along the golden triangle. They are hefty little bars, and never really made a big splash in the states because of the odd weight standard in relation to the Krand and later troy ouncers. Timothy Green had a full chapter on these little bars and the smugglers in one of his early works, either "The World of Gold" or "The New World of Gold". National Geographic also had several pictures in an issue back in the 70s, showing the smuggler's undercoats and packages of the 10 tola bars. These were very abundant and readily available at one time, especially in India and the Mid-Eastern countries. Would be interested in them myself M.K. if you can find a good source for them. Other than Harmony, I believe Credit Suisse or "Swiss Credit Bank" bars were produced, among others (all cast rather than extruded).
oldgold
Farfel
I would like nothing better than to see the bullion banks get their just rewards. But do not count on the bear funds to do them in.

The fact is that the total assets of the bear funds are exceedingly small -- probably even smaller than the gold funds.

But if the bear funds were to be joined by smart hedge fund operators like Soros with BIG BUCKS at their disposal -- the bullion banks would finally face an adversary capable of bringing them down for the count.

Soon hopefully!

I for one will not be satisfied until a few bullion bankers take a fatal plunge out the window a la 1929 and this miserable industry of blood sucking parasites becomes as extinct as the dodo.

SHIFTY
Felix The Cat / China

Felix I will pass on a few words from a recent Reform Party Petition :
"The Communist Chinese regime attempted to corrupt the 1996 United States presidential election , and; The Communist Chinese regime has engaged in industrial espionage against the United States ,and; The Communist Chinese regime has nuclear missiles targeted on American cities, and; The Communist Chinese regime routinely dumps its goods into the United States and refuses to engage in fair trade with the United States, and; The Communist Chinese regime continues to force abortions on its citizens and stifle all democratic dissent."
These things are not good for the United States, and when I go to the store and most things are MADE IN CHINA it makes me mad. I think of all that money going to china to build up its military so they can blow off the legs of our young service men.They have done it before.( KOREA)
I get pissed off when the people that are supposed to represent us are bought and sold by foreign governments. The American workers now compete for Mc Jobs. We have lost many factories and the U.S. military buys parts from foreign sources.
I hope the sheep wake up soon and take the for sale sign off the White House and clean out the barn!
Gandalf the White
Early retirement for Fund Managers ! (for MK)
The Hobbits were wondering just when that would begin to happen !! When Mr. Soros implys that things are so abnormal that the standard investment techniques no longer work and the top three of his funds managers give up on the gogo day trader mania markets, it means that only the unqualified will be left to try to expend all those 401K funds into something that is possible to at least hold a portion of its value. -- OF COURSE all the RoundTable members know the answer to THAT question, but the Sheeple have been watching CNBC toooooo long and really believe the misleading line of (as Farful would say) "MaleCowpucky" !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
OOPS -- Sorry Farfel for the error in spelling !
<;-(
Al Fulchino
OldGold...Permit me if you will
You wrote:
oldgold (5/10/2000; 21:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 30309)
Farfel
I would like nothing better than to see the bullion banks get their just rewards. But do not count on the bear funds to do them in.

AF: I agree.

you wrote later:

I for one will not be satisfied until a few bullion bankers take a fatal plunge out the window a la 1929 and this miserable industry of blood sucking parasites becomes as extinct as the dodo.

AF: If they became extinct as you say, what would ever remind us of what can be? Certainly not a stale history book. Without being overly religious, bad must exist in order to strengthen those who would be courageous. And those who cheat, steal or otherwise manipulate markets and monies are necessary for this world. I do not hope that they jump out windows, and its likely you don't either, other than to express a passion. I have learned that I cannot be strong unless I am being strong in response to some form of weight. In the seeds of the manipulators transgression is a test for many. Some will see what is happening as you do and prepare and be strong for it. Others will choose to be blind and be rolled on. It will be painful, but perhaps those in pain will scratch their heads and say "how did I get in this mess?" Let those who manipulate enjoy their ride, it will be short lived in terms of history. But the great lesson is what they remind us of. Those ones, like you, who have clear vision, will speak up and sound a call to others who might sympathize with you and prompt an army of sympathetics to arise. All good causes are born out of inequities or injustices if you will. This is just another one.

So if they jump, give them some pillows to land on and put them in jail, so you can take your offspring to see what a thief looks like when behind bars. It will also give the thief a chance to reconcile his life, without doing us all harm.

Best to you. Good night.



ThaiGold
World StockMarkets Tumbling
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u===========================================
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Seems the World's StockMarkets are in a big
tumble tonight. They must have read Farfel's
posts earlier.

Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

ThaiGold
==============================================
TownCrier
Tonight's mission for the likes of Gandalf the White, Aragorn III, and Sir Holtzman, among others...
http://www.lordoftherings.net/True goldhearts know how to live life "right", and part of that is knowing how to balance work with play. You will definately enjoy this...I know I did.

I'm sure you are well aware that Professor Tolkien's classic epic, The Lord of the Rings, (as if I had to name it for you) is being filmed in New Zealand by New Line Cinema. Gentleman, they are doing this one right! I have recently watched the promotional movie trailer (1 min, 44 sec.) and am as awestruck as if they threw open the very doors of Ft. Knox and said, "Go ahead...help yourself!"

To see for yourself, and to revel in the majesty of this incredible effort (it will be presented in total in three movies to each be released in turn at Christmas 2001, 2002, and 2003) simply go to the official website for the production and click on the link for the movie preview.

Depending on the size of the picture you select, the download will take anywhere from a long time to a very long time. It is worth the effort. Have a beer and read a chapter to your children while you wait.

You need QuickTime Ver. 4 or greater to view the movie after it downloads. And depending upon the download settings of your browser, the movie file will either be automatically saved to your computer, or else if it downloads within your browser window, be sure to select the browser's "Save" menu item so that you can watch it again and again at a later time as you wish.

Here is a press release on it that you might enjoy:
---BEGIN------
From MacCentral, Thursday, April 20, 2000.

Akamai Enables High-Quality Delivery of New Line Cinemas' "The Lord of the Rings" Preview Footage for Record Internet Audience
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM - news), the leading provider of global, high performance services for the delivery of Internet content, streaming media, and applications, today announced that New Line Cinemas' release of "The Lord of the Rings" Internet movie 'behind-the-scenes' footage has become one of the Internet's largest entertainment events ever. As measured by Akamai's advanced real-time Internet monitoring tools, "The Lord of the Rings" preview footage achieved a historic one-week total of more than 6.6 million downloads since becoming available on Friday, April 7.

"The Lord of the Rings" movie preview can be seen at www.lordoftherings.net. One of the most celebrated novels of the 20th Century, The Lord of the Rings is a groundbreaking epic of good versus evil, extraordinary heroes, wondrous creatures and dark armies of terror. Generations of more than 50 million people around the globe, in 25 different languages have grown up with this epic history. The legend has inspired an entire genre of movies, fiction, and has influenced some of the greatest artists of our time. It has made dreamers out of children and adults, and has recently been named the number one most popular book of the century.
---END-------
So there you have it, people. The fuse is running low. If you or your children are inclined to read classic literature, (The Hobbit was first published in 1937, The Lord of the Rings in 1954) you have a year and a half in which to let your imagination fully bask in the grandeur of the written tale as your all-important first exposure to this story. (Don't worry, the movie preview will only whet your appetites to further feed your imagination.)

To get yourself started, read The Hobbit to your children (if you have any). The Hobbit is a good way to introduce your children to the wonders of gold, and it is the important introduction for your own reading of the "grown-up" sequel, The LotR. The Hobbit was written by Tolkien for his own children, and it is FULL of gold, beginning to end. Be careful, though. Your children will surely want some gold coins of their very own by the end of the tale.

The Lord of the Rings then is Tolkien's nearly indescribable epic tale of the classic struggle between good and evil in which the principle characters also struggle against their own free will to either carry on in the difficult pursuit of "good", to turn aside for grey areas, or to turn back for an easier immediate existence in the hope that the darkness will not overtake them, but perhaps their decendents instead.

A timeless lesson, to be sure.
ThaiGold
Who Needs VIRUS's.?. Intel Ships 1-Million Bad Motherboards.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGIOXL4538C.html=============================================
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NASDAQ companies may crash, just on their own "merits".
Seems INTEL has shipped, and is unable to recall
all of some 1-million defective motherboards.!.

These can crash, or corrupt data files. Like a VIRUS.
VIRUS's are free. INTEL isn't. How ironic.

Link: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGIOXL4538C.html

ThaiGold
======================================================
ThaiGold
Progress Report from GATA -- Just received..
Subject: [GATA] Congress gets interested in gold manipulation...
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Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 01:11:07 EDT
Subject: [GATA] Congress gets interested in gold manipulation

1a EDT Thursday, May 10, 2000

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

On Wednesday the GATA delegation to Washington met
with high officials of Congress and their staffs to present
evidence that the price of gold is being manipulated and
that gold loans have reached levels that threaten the U.S.
and world banking systems. We presented GATA's new
report, "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis," and asked that
Congress inquire officially into the gold market.

We had three meetings at the Capitol and were well
received at each. We were asked to provide certain
additional information and particularly potential questions
for various government officials and financial institutions,
and to return to Washington soon for additional meetings
with some of the people we met Wednesday.

We will have a few more meetings today.

You'll have to forgive my being a little vague here; it
wouldn't be right to identify yet those who met with us
and who are considering getting involved with the gold
issue. Besides, it might expose them to premature
intervention or retaliation from gold's enemies. But I
hope it will suffice to say that today couldn't have
gone better, that we couldn't have met with more
important people with more appropriate jurisdiction
over the gold issue, that GATA now has brought and
will continue to bring the gold issue to the highest
levels of the U.S. government, and that we are hopeful
and even confident now that much will come from this
in the next few months and that our support from the
gold industry will grow with our success.

Please post this as seems useful.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
ThaiGold
Attn: SHIFTY (5/10/2000; 23:05:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 30317)
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u...
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Hello SHIFTY:

Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Very significan't in the link, is the TAIWAN Index.
They have a normally massive and publicly acknowledged
"PPT" operation to prop up their market. It isn't working
very well tonight:

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 12:32AM 8349.91 -209.96 -2.45%

One usually always sees TAIWAN's index in the black, when
other Asian markets are crashing all around them. But
tonight, they're going south as well. Out of control.?.

A harbinger of NASDAQ when it opens.?. Where's Farfel.!.

ThaiGold
==========================================================
Gandalf the White
Thanks, TC for the "Mission" challenge !
TownCrier (5/10/2000; 22:30:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 30315)
Tonight's mission for the likes of Gandalf the White, Aragorn III, and Sir Holtzman, among others...
-- First step of the Mission was successfully completed and the software downloaded and installed !! -- That was soooo challenging that I now am headed to bed to dream of the "precious" and will have the Hobbits attempt to download the trailer and watch it tomorrow !! The Hobbits thank you and ask, "Have you seen Aragorn III lately ?"
<;-)
SHIFTY