http://www.SelectSectors.com/pog.gif POG nonlinear fit and forecastView Yesterday's Discussion.

I also looked at answering that same querie as Sierra Madre. Thank goodness I did not, because Seirra Madres response was much more beautifully crafted than mine would have been. However it occurred to me that a bit of economic thought might help some readers.

I can't remember who the econonmists were, but...
Assume a commodity, lets use gold, is trading at $300.00, and you just bought a wad at that price. The very next trade you could get someone who is drunk, or desperate for cash, or someone who is manipulating the market, and they frantically put in an offer to sell ONE contract at $290.00. Of course somebody snaps it up. Suddenly the entire population holding gold, or effected by the price of gold, immediately revalues their holdings as having a value of $290.00. Has the gold changed in any way? Does the fact that one frantic indiviual wanted to dispose of his gold have any effect on the fundamentals regarding gold? Yet the whole world is now valuing gold at 290.

The same holds true on the upside. A drunk, or a jeweller desperate to fill an order for a favorite customer at any price, or someone manipulating the market, or someone SIMPLY makes a mistake and enters buy one at the market when they meant SELL one at the market, can offer for ONE contract at a foolishly high price, and the market jumps. What is there about one persons desperation, or foolishness that has any reason to effect the entire population of interested people?

These economists argued that the price in any of the markets (stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc.) was governed by ativities "at the margin", and that these "at the margin" activities would induce artificial anomolies in the price of the underlying vehicle which had no bearing on the real value. Moreover they argued that, because of the ripple effect, (Say somebody says "oh my god, trust me to be a contrary indicator, I just buy, and gold is on its way down. I have to get out quick, thus driving the market down further, Or somebody has a stop loss in to sell at the market, which drops the price further) these activities at the margin tend to be multiplied and self reinforcing for a time at least.

These things are like drugs. You need an ever higher dose to get the same buzz, and the current political view is "Its the economy stupid". Not the health of the economy, but the popularity polls that react to Joe sixpack when he fells good when he can buy more sixpacks.

Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

And I think we are about to realize what we have wished for.

Bond market and Cisco.

Attn: wolavkawolavka:
You probably use some pretty sophisticated charting software
in your futures activity. Can you do us all a favor.?.

Assume the current downtrend continues. Trend isn't
our Friend. But maybe it is. Please try this:

Run a long term chart on Gold. Note the current support
point. (you said it was $262, yesterday). And a projected
timeline where it might occur. Then, project the next support
point below that one, and it's projected arrival date. Then,
just keep doing that until the chart indicates support at $50
and tell us what projected date that could occur.

Not a joke. Just curious if your software can do that...

Thanks
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

** Nowhere in here do I see an equal treatement for who is buying CB gold. They also state that investment in gold will go down. So, here is another classic biased report intended to reduce investment demand for gold. Very irresponsible journalism or reliance upon a "conflict of interest" source. Pure BS.

New York, Oct. 31 ( Bloomberg ) -- The world's central banks are expected to sell 12 million ounces of gold from their reserves in 2001, down from 13 million ounces this year, CPM Group said in its annual gold survey.

This year's sales were up 59 percent from 8.2 million ounces last year after a group of 15 European central banks announced in September 1999 their intention of limiting bullion sales to 400 million metric tons ( 12.9 million ounces ) a year over the next five years. Sales of bullion by central banks have contributed to a plunge in gold prices close to a 20-year low.

``Central banks have become more transparent in some of their gold activities,'' having laid out their sales plans, according to the report from the New York-based research group, which was sponsored by a group of gold mining and trading companies.

Central bank sales still are lower than in 1993 and 1997, when they totaled 22 million and 20 million ounces, respectively, the report said.

Gold prices, which rose to a two-year high of $339 an ounce in October 1999 after the central banks' announcement, have fallen 21 percent since then to $266.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, close to the 20-year low of $253.20 recorded in July 1999.

Gold hasn't benefited from this year's turmoil in equity markets and concern about slowing economic growth, the report said.

``Amid a sudden resurgence of concern over the economic and financial market outlook and several large changes within the gold market itself, gold prices have been steady and quiet, with a slight downward bias,'' the report said.

Supply, Demand

Total supply of gold, including output from mines and recycled scrap, is expected to rise 0.4 percent to 104.8 million ounces this year and gain another 1.7 percent to 106.5 million in 2001, CPM Group said. Mine output was little changed this year at an estimated 67.3 million ounces and will rise to 68.5 million next year.

Total demand for gold is expected to rise this year and next, the report said. Jewelry and industrial use will rise 4.3 percent to 106.1 million ounces this year and reach 108.5 million ounces next year. East Asian fabrication demand could be up as much as 24 percent to 24.73 million ounces this year amid stronger demand in Thailand.

Demand in India, the world's biggest consumer, is expected to fall 8.5 percent to 21.77 million ounces this year, while Italian demand falls 7.9 percent to 17.47 million ounces, the report said.

Investment demand is expected to total 11.6 million ounces this year and 10 million ounces next year.

Oct/31/2000 19:24 ET

Attn: SteveH (11/01/00; 01:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 40357)SteveH:
It was, as you said, alot of BS. Except where their report said:
[quote]
East Asian fabrication demand could be up as much as 24
percent to 24.73 million ounces this year amid stronger
demand in Thailand.
[unquote]

Thailand.... Go us there.

Attn: SteveH (11/01/00; 01:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 40357)SteveH:

Whooop. Whooop. Whoop. ... Alarm Bells just went off....

In that report you just posted, it says:
"The world's central banks are expected to sell 12 million
ounces of gold from their reserves in 2001, down from 13
million ounces this year"
-then goes on to mention-
"24.73 million ounces" 2001 demand in Thailand.

Is that a misprint, or does, and will, Thailand's gold demand
eqaute to more than twice-dwarf the CB sales volume.?.

If such is the case, then you've answered your own question,
about who's buying all that CB gold. And then some.!.

There aren't that many Thai necks to wear so much gold. So
what else could they be doing with it all.? Perhaps planning to
mint some coins.?. Perhaps an All-Asian gold standard to
surprise the occidental world.?.
Wow. Just think of the ramifications.!.
Never underestimate the ability of Asians to protect their
wealth. Fooled once by IMF, never again.

ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

Golds low is in, dollars high was in on 10-26 not advice.

Attn: schippi (11/01/00; 00:12:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 40352)schippi:
That link you posted (http://www.selectsectors.com/pog.gif)
shows a chart that you correctly described as an
"Ugly Five Day Gold Forecast"

That chart ties in quite well with what I just posted/asked
wolavka to run thru his fancy charting software.

"Support" points don't seem to be worth much these days.
And so, I wondered (to wolavka) "where could it all end up".
...er... down. But with sophisticated software such as his,
could project an interesting timeline for us to consider.

Thanks for posting that for us all. Much appreciated.

Regards
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_dougherty/20001030_xnjdo_us_warned_.shtml"U.S. warned over support for Israel"
Prince Sultan and Prince Abdullah have both warned of unspecified consequences for U.S. support of Israel.
They said they would not cut off oil.

Hmmmmm. Arms trade, oil trade, military aid. Disruption in those areas would also cause problems for S.A. But who would it hurt and who would benefit from demanding Euros for oil?

How come it looks like Germany has taken France and is refighting WWII and winning this time with a North African campaign that Patton never dreamed of? Will England fall soon? Will America and her allies follow?

By the way, does anyone else feel like we're riding a seesaw? Stock market drops a bit; dollar drifts up. Stock market rises; dollar falls a bit. And the Fed can't lean on either side (raise or lower rates)without unbalancing the game and making everyone jump! But...uh-oh...here comes Euro. He's heavier than he looks, and he wants to play too!

All good reasons to hedge your exposure to the US dollar with gold!
simply

ThaiGold (10/25/2000; 1:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39835)All:
Some posters have mentioned the likely-hood of Paper Gold
(eg: futures) melting down to zero worthlessness, or freeze up
non-deliverability meltdown. And a comensurate "disconnect"
from Physical Gold pricing/worth. ... The FOA scenario, as I
(perhaps incorrectly) understand it.

Other posters mention an aspect of a gold-futures scenario
wherein the shorts (in the event of a/any minor uptick) need
to continue shorting more-n-more to maintain their solvency.

And that would drive the POG even further downward, in a
virtually unending spiral. Which is quite believable and even
appears to be the case we see day after day.

When I analyze those ideas, it strikes me that an absoloute
bottom for the spiral-effect would be US $50 /oz. Because,
at that point, we reach the Legal Tender face value of a 1 oz
GoldEagle USA coin. And along the same lines, for Silver,
such a spiral down would absoloutely bottom at $1 /oz, the
Legal Tender face value of the 1 oz USA SilverEagle coin.

Thus, it would seem to me that there is an automatic brake
on such a meltdown that results in a POG & POS pricing
that would be a remarkably easy point at-which the US Govt
could enact such a Virtual Confiscation Rescue Plan which
I previously posted here into the Forum. Lotsa folks laughed.
Some didn't. We have a good variety of opinions in our Forum.

(see my): ThaiGold (10/25/2000; 1:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39835)

And so, at that point a Physical -vs- Paper "disconnect" is
an impossibility. A moot point, worldwide. Think about it.

I'm not claiming vindication, just yet. But I can see the light
at the end of the tunnel, and it isn't an oncoming freight train
this time.

Cordially
ThaiGold@OperaMAil.Com

I see Sierra Madre gave an excellent post in response to your questions but I'd like to have a bash too. I don't post very much (there's SO much to read!) and though I hope mine will help your understanding I need to sharpen my own!
A post might help.
--------------------------------------
>"My understanding is that the value or purchasing power of the dollar is dictated by the price of gold. The more gold you can buy, the stronger the dollar - less gold, weaker dollar."
--------------------------------------
I think this right basically, if I remember correctly Another says "the dollar is now strong in gold."
Now... I work with a fellow who has all his money in common stocks while I am hip deep (well ankle maybe) in gold. He teases me about the POG and I tease him when one of his stocks blow up (which has been happening often lately).
If I asked him if the reason for his investment strategy is because "stocks are strong in the dollar" I think he'd have to agree. People hold stocks because they will believe they will hold or increase their value in dollars, similarly the world is content with the dollar (read dollar-denominated-assets) as it believes the dollar can be readily converted into REAL weatlth (of which gold is the ultimate). So... I think your understanding quoted above is correct, I also think there might be a "chicken and egg" thing at work inre the relative purchasing power of the dollar and gold
------------------------------------------
>"If this is the case, what happens to countries' currencies that are backed with a percentage of gold holdings if the dollar continues to strengthen and gold continues to fall. Does their currency fall as well?"
-------------------------------------------
First a word about this "gold backing" of currencies. My understanding is that there is no currency in the world "backed" by gold, ie redeemable in gold. In Europe and most other countries the Central Bank has some gold, a little or a lot depending on the country. In the US the Federal Reserve (Central Bank) has no gold and the US hoard is held by the Treasury Department and I believe this situation is simply related to the legalities surrounding the creation of the Fed. Sure, both Europe and the US hold a lot of gold which could be sold in extemis (relative to smaller holders) and this might tend to lend confidence to those currencies but NO currency is "backed" by gold.

In answer to your question, Sierra Madres' answer ("nobody knows!") is probably as good as any but another answer is imbedded in the way you've asked the question.

"....if the dollar continues to strengthen ...." I guess you mean strengthen with respect to gold and those countries' you speak of have experienced falling currencies. Japan which has no gold and uses USD reserves has of course been hanging tough against the dollar, ditto the British Pound only a little less so. Euro Area which has much gold has a badly falling currency at this time (soon to reverse at $.75-$.80 IMHO) so perhaps it is the case at this time that large gold reserves will take a currency down. But what about Australia? Canada? small holders and sellers of gold both yet they experience weak currencies not strong ... hmm.
Cleary trade, currency speculation etc. cloud this picture and maybe Sierra Madres answer was the best after all?

The point of view from gold is a tricky one for us here. This is why it's hard to let go our "Western View" as FOA puts it since, if you meant with your question,
"....if the dollar continues to strengthen ....(with respect to other currencies)"
then you have answered yourself. If the dollar continues to strenghen then other currencies fall by definition. This view is the easy route and I think the nature of our monetary illusion(s). It's interesting that gold has been fairly steady re the dollar, and rising in most other currencies.
-------------------------------------------
>"My second question is essentially the opposite of the first, since the dollar is the reserve currency what happens to other currencies that are backed by the dollar, with little or no holdings of gold, if the dollar should fall? Does their curency fall as well if they sit there and do nothing?"
---------------------------------------------
I need to digress here and consider first what reserves are for. Jude Wanniski at http://www.polyconomics.com points out that economies function at their best in conditions of price stability (read no inflation OR deflation). Under these conditions (such as what the US has been enjoying) borrowers are able to pay their creditors and lenders are able to collect from them. Economies will work best when this is the case because the nature of trade is after all, in the payment. If a country enters a crisis of debt (a deflationary scenario) not only will debtors be unable to repay but lenders will suffer too since they can't collect. As currency under a gold standard can't be inflated indefinately our leaders over time took us off gold since this gave them the option to inflate in order to "correct" this problem. This allows governments to screw only one side of the payment equation (the lender) and let debtors off the hook, debtors being "economic engines" wether as "consumers" or as entrepreneurs who risk capital and thus provide employment (note how the system favours the creators, producers and the risk takers, and consider the widening gap between rich and poor)... So arguments from deflationists not withstanding the problem modern governments (Central Banks) face in this modern era is letting their currency inflations gallop away from them, ruining their economies, driving up prices and angering voters and labour unions...

...Which will eventually lead us back to what reserves are for. Inflation has been described as too much money (paper) chasing too few goods and it produces a host of symptoms depending on how it is dealt with. How to fight inflation?

Method #1
Sell bonds
Governments finance defict spending (wars, over generous social programs) this way also. It has the effect of removing money from the economy but it has three downsides. First it drives up interest rates, if the government increases the supply of bonds in the market the prices of them fall and the yield (interest) increases. Since the government is the best risk as it is they that actually PRINT MONEY no entity will ever negotiate a better interest rate than the yield on government bonds, which will rise as the government sells more. Second, these bonds compete with others in the capital markets. A company trying to raise money to build a better mouse trap has a harder time borrowing when the the yield on Treasuries is really sweet.
Thirdly, how is the interest and redemption of these bonds to be paid for down the road if not with more inflation?
Fiat money lovers no doubt rejoice that growth in government debt seems to be slowing.

Method #2
Raise Taxes
This also has the effect of removing excess money from the economy but remember, somebody has to face the voters. Look at what happened to George Bush Senior re this one. Incidentally people sometimes ask why a government doesn't simply print the money it needs and scrap the tax system. Two reasons, new money could only enter the economy via government suppliers or via those who recieve entitlements (welfare, pensions etc.). It wouldn't be nearly as easy to manage (screw around with) the economy this way. Also taxes support the currency. (!) Yup, one has to get dollars to pay taxes, just as surely as to buy oil. It is said in the very early going of the US that some taxes were instituted because the getting of dollars to pay them would jump start the money system.

Method #3
Be More Productive
Alan Greenspan is not COMPLETELY full of you-know-what re this one. If the supply of currency has increased too much how about increasing the amount and number of things that the dollars can be spent on? The cart leads the horse when I put it that way but you know what I mean, it will work. Harken back to what I said about the system favouring the creators, producers and risk takers. This is the "virtuous circle" that is slowly putting people like me into the poor house. (cram the New Economy!). Sorry for that outburst, but periods of great technological advance inspire a lot of investment which accomplishes the goal of Method #3. I believe there's a crash afterwards though when all the benefits are realized and the process stops. RCA fell over
%90 in the '29-32 crash.

Method #4
Sell Reserves
Thank you for reading this far, I'm finally getting there...
I know you asked about falling currencies and not inflation but in my mind the two are surely related. Most of what I've said above is in the context of a single nation/single currency and to the extent that a countrys' GDP is traded with other contries thus involving other currencies inflation and a falling currency DO NOT go hand in hand, at least initially and maybe not in every economic sector. Regardless of how fiat currencies gyrate against one another in the short term (a decade?) I believe the overall trend for all of them is DOWN which brings us at last to reserves and gold.
Fight inflation?
Boost your currency?
Selling reserves and buying up your own currency should work right?
Countries that hold US dollars (well bonds mostly I guess since they earn interest) can sell bonds/dollars and buy their own currencies off the market with them... but your question reads "if the dollar should fall". Note how tough it is to identify the beginning of the process of a falling dollar. Does it somehow start on it's own thus prompting countries to sell dollar assets? Or do countries rush to defend their currencies and crash the dollar in the process?
Will this crash world trade, world stock markets and the world economy? If a dollar decline is needed to correct the crazy trade imbalances and currency crisis we have been witnessing how can the current trend be reversed? Sierra Madre says it can't be done unilaterally by the US but I disagree. The Fed can start buying (monetizing) every outstanding US bond in sight though this may start a tidal wave. Sierras' mention of "There has to be an agreement among the significant parties." inre a dollar devaluation is highly valid IMO but given the nature of the worlds' various power mongers isn't this a low probability outcome?

Now... some have raised the question of "Why do the major gold holding countries work to lower the price of gold, one of their major assets?" I've said this before, Central Banks don't care how low gold falls in their own currency. There is a fable about a Central Banker/Alchemist who dreamed af being able to turn gold into lead (not a typo). If gold is very low it simply means that the currency/money system is doing fine and the currency is strong, Problems of deflation can be corrected with monetizaton/printing/lower interest rates. IF A CURRENCY IS IN TROUBLE gold will be high in "price" by definition. It will serve it's purpose automatically by being able to pull large amounts of currency off the market when/if it is sold. Note that gold doesn't really have a "price" despite what the paper markets tell us every day. For gold to do it's job in crisis what's important is not it's "price" but it's quantity.

How many ounces, not how many dollars is the golden point of view.

The best solution to the fiat money problem/falling currencies is to make them redeemable in gold and in a perverted way that is what Central Banks have been doing by inflating gold (printing up paper certificates, futures, options leasing, encouraging forward sales, counting gold that is still in the ground) thus keeping it's price apparently low. When all else fails you have to sell the gold and that is just what has been happening albeit by crooked methods whereby Central Banks hope to "sell" it without actually parting with it, and perhaps garnering more. The thing is there's only one currency left....

If the money system were a video game the Central Banks are running out of quarters.

Note the the World Gold Councils' stats on reserve percentages show the US as the largest, with gold at %56 of reserves. This is illusory since the US holds very little in the way for foreign currency. With a monthly trade defict of 30 billion dollars how could it? 8000 tonnes is a lot of gold relatively speaking but the reserve percentage figure when applied to the resrerve currency country is meaningless.

Rockgrabber, your questions are simple but in this area I think the most simple and direct questions are somehow the toughest to answer. I know I wasn't able to get at them as directly as I wanted but it was good for me to try. I hope you benefited too.

gidsek

http://www.theage.com.au/bus/20001101/A18886-2000Oct31.htmlSir TG, thank you for your reply and request. Ask and you shall receive, it is often said. I was going to formulate a personal reply, however the print media today provide us with facts rather than my views. Australia has a plethera of miner hedgers, many of which have been the "Past" "Darlings" of the Aussie miners. Companies like Normandy, the "Queen" of "Darling Hedgers" share price now languishes at all time lows. The Bullion Bankers do have the hedger miners pickle in the vise grips as the article below so clearly states about Centaur Mining.

Can you say: COUNTER-PARTY-RISK, COUNTER-PARTY-DEMAND, OR COUNTER-PARTY-DEFAULT.

Sir TG said:
"Watch those miners, they are really in a pickle now. If your dollar stays down as gold spikes they will be in a vise grip. The more time goes by the more I think good mine investing in the future will involve identifying solid reserves, selling equity, then never mining it. Just sit on it. Give us your thoughts and experience when back on line"

"Centaur faces cash crisis as Australia Dollar falls:"

By BARRY FitzGERALD
Wednesday 1 November 2000

Centaur Mining & Exploration is facing something of a liquidity crisis despite its flagship Cawse laterite nickel project achieving near nameplate capacity.

The company said yesterday that its top priorities had become "liquidity and cashflow enhancement" because of negative monthly operating cashflows and "significant" negative hedge positions on the dollar, the nickel price and the gold price.

The extent of the negative cashflows was not disclosed by the group, which recently moved its management to Perth.

Formerly part of Joseph Gutnick's stable of companies, control of the group passed to Andrew Forrest's Anaconda Nickel group in August.

Centaur said that at the end of the September quarter it was holding cash of $50.5 million, with $21 million in a debt service reserve to cover interest payments due on US bonds in December. The bond holders finance the development of the group's $350 million Cawse nickel project.

After the December payment, the reserve will need to be topped up by $US12.3 million ($A23.6 million). That comes at a time of negative cashflows and negative hedge positions.

"Several positive steps were under way to reduce operating and overhead costs and increase incomes," the company said.

Those steps include renegotiating the group's hedge exposures with counterparties.

Centaur has $US212 million in foreign hedging commitments at an average price of 65 US cents.

Its nickel hedging is set at strike prices of $US2.81 a pound and $A4.35 ($US2.26) a pound.


Now to important matters of Herb Gardening and fine cuisine:


French Sorrel 'growing tips'

http://www.storeybooks.com/main/herb/he_pages/herb_ids/HG204B.html

Enjoy! "S"

Is there a chartist (artist), who can plot total outstanding dollar-volume, against total debt, for the past 20/30 years ? Bad and Unproductive Debt-Growth, against Gold. It must be possible to find and show debt-growth against the dollarindex for the last 5 ascending (+ 50%) years. Then we can put 2.500 tons of newly mined gold per annum, in perspective to debt growt. We want to surprise all fanatic dollarfriends, with some real bad news. Not with perceptions, but facts, visualised in one simple chart.

Hello You 2.
I've been away from the "action" for a couple of weeks due to Family and am just getting up to speed with the goings-on.
Trail Guide sure seems cock-a-hoop with developments of late, judging by his recent "trail" efforts and yesterdays postings. Thai I didn't get your drift with the Freudean Slip post, can you elaborate?
Got a Perth Mint buy/sell sheet today, shows 1 oz-Ag sell $20.24----buy $9.24 (aussie bleeders) 100%+ premium.
Another interesting tidbit, if Fidelity of the USA and UBS Switzerland were countries they'd rank as 7 & 8 in terms of value (you know--G7...G20 etc) scary eh! or just farsical- you be the judge.

Hi gidsek,
Sterling effort re above and incidentally, a belated thank-you for the "Jove" explanation. I was leaning toward Jehovah myself, D-uh!
The SQ 006 accident demonstrates just how much "faith" we are prepared to place in tried and proven systems, in this case a 747 Jumbo, to the point where faith overcomes rationality and the inevitable "accident" happens.
With ALL (nearly ) parties firmly convinced Gold has been de-monetised, the last several years has seen gross abuse of all rational economic logic and the "accident" that can't happen is waiting patiently in the wings.
Sierra is right--"who knows".

ThaiGold - thanks, interesting about our friend gold buying rights (easement). Kinda like buying safe passage in perpetuity. It'd be nice if a "Gold Corridor" could be set up between the US and Canada say where one could trade gold for unimpeded travel to and fro. Cut through the sludge of stasis (statis :)). Al Carter's Healthy Cell concept comes to mind. Let's see - 'A gram a day keeps the Commies away'.


Belgian - great idea. It would be useful beyond belief.

A posting at bearforum today about oil for euros. I assume Trail Guide is aware of this? $ coming home now? Was this the reason for the short T-bills spike yesterday?
---------------------------------------------------
EURO & OIL

Posted By: HaJo H.
Date: Wednesday, 1 November 2000, at 5:27 a.m.

It was mentioned at BLOOMBERG TV this morning that not only
IRAQ but VENEZUELA and RUSSIA also wants to be paid in Euros for oil. A time frame was not mentioned.

RE: Sierra Madre #40331Seconds by:
Cavan Man#40336
Thai Gold#40338
Peter Asher#40340

hang on

Who / Why / When, is moving POG ? Gold producers and consumers, are constantly trying to find the perfect balance in function of POG. So they are not that relevant to the POG big picture over longer time periods. Than, we're left to focus on the Price-Value-swingers. Gold - Investors. !
What's their profile ? What is their common goal ?
They want to secure the surplus part of their wealth. Precisely, that part of wealth (paperprofit), for wich you can't find an alternative. An even profitable alternative.
So, when do this sophisticated investors, run out of alternatives ? Are there sufficient alternatives today ?
A given currency + it's interest rate ? Real estate ? Stockmarket(s) ? For the last 20 years...it was quite obvious, that there were many very good alternatives to Gold. These alternatives were and still seem to be, extremely overwhelming as to the point, everybody lost completely the contact with Gold and its value. Now, we are definitely running out of profitable alternatives. Emporer, Dollar has to show it's massive Debt...one day. Real Estate, needs inflation-big-brother and US Stockmarket has to come down to normality, corresponding, with global natural and sustainable growth. The inflation/deflation dilemma is less important than the lacq of alternatives to stow, gold, away as a reserve-asset.

To ignite a POG turnaround, we need the approiate trigger.
Dormant gold-value-perceptions, must be awaken by brutal Debt facts. Up until now...we have no proof of silent gold accumulation. Gold investors, still seem, feeling comfortable, with paperreserves. The dollar-hyperconcentration is definitely, mortal ad the end. Dollar price (not value) increase, will come at a point, where it is suffocating the world + US economy as well. In 1985, there was the Plaza accord. This worked the dollar down, for the following ten years. The world dollar lusts are becoming heavy. POO is probably a name of the weight.
It is not our writings that will encourage the POG deciders to act. POG itself will make them change their mind. That takes time. Our job is, to fill in this time, with sound arguments, for everybody to see and understand. Goldactivism !

I believe it's Nomination by Thai Gold & seconds by CM, PA @ J-Bear

Why, yes WHY, do we never see a marketing campaign for Gold as an investment ?? Each time, this question, pops up in my mind...I get that funny feeling, that there is something wrong with me...or with the possible answer on the question.
I was told, that Gold will always sell itself.! OK, POG, proved that with brio, for the last 20 years...hummmmmm sic.
Who do you expect to pay for such a campaign ? Surely not the jewelry industry. POG, doesn't matter for them to make the profits. CB's are selling Goldcoins. So they do their share of advertising. So, we land by the mining-industry.
HOHOWwww...They are supposed to mine and not waiste their time and money with advertising !? Anglogold : our gold, mined, is sold to the jewelry-industry...! so we have to promote jewelry. Point !
Jewelers, do nothing and keep on cashing the 300% profits.They had the same experience with the " Diamonts are for Ever" campaign from De Beers.
Strange, very strange. So it is only investment-gold that sells itself ? May be ? Does it always ?
But I would be tempted to try and proof, the effect of advertising gold, on substantial Stockmarket dips, for instance. The image of parents, investing in gold for their children. Am I suggesting, anyone, to invent the hot water again ?
Building up a subconscious gold-investment reflex. Refresh that reflex ! Like buying a strow hat in winter. Noblesse Oblige...and nobel gold is obliged to stay in the minds, generation after generation. BTW 25 years = a generation. So we are almost running out of time for the actual generation, where there are some left over reflextions. What about the next one ?

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. Ltd. said on Wednesday that an impressive operating performance from its core royalties business and the contribution from its key Ken Snyder mine helped the
company report record revenues.

The Toronto-based gold miner, which holds royalty interests in gold properties, said its second-quarter earnings for the period ended September 30 were C$31.8 million ($20.9 million), or 20 Canadian cents a share, on sales of C$71.4 million, compared with earnings of C$27.8 million, or 18 cents a share, on sales of C$60.7 million for the same period a year earlier.

Franco-Nevada said its Ken Snyder mine in Nevada provided a strong contribution to earnings and cash flow during the quarter. The mine produced 52,908 ounces of gold and 505,602 ounces of silver.

In June, Franco-Nevada said it would take over South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. in an all-stock deal worth C$3.7-billion ($1.8 billion), creating a gold powerhouse that would rank third in the world. But South African authorities denied Gold Fields'exchange control approval on Sept. 21 for its proposed merger with Franco-Nevada, saying it would not benefit the country's economy, prompting both
sides to proclaim the deal "dead.".

elevator guy (10/31/00; 21:21:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 40344)Leigh's 40299

Hi elevator guy,
I told you I was dumb and you go and make a point of it? Ha! Ha! (smile)

No, I didn't directly answer Leigh's question and if reading closely one can see I don't directly answer most questions. Yet, I somehow think my "subject title: Comment" got Leigh and others to thinking real hard.

Mr. Turl got it (hello turl): Trurl (10/31/2000; 9:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 40318)

Here is some clear wording:

The HR bill confirms a lot of what we have been pointing to: that all the massive paper derivatives created over this past decade are little more than leveraged bets of accounting.

All done to simulate a defensive position so people can operate in our dollar world. Therefore, supporting the view that dollar value and the world trade that depends on it will continue without entailing much currency risk.

Our position always was that:

Their (derivatives) value will go up in a cloud of smoke just as soon as some financial crisis demands their conversion into useable cash retaining it's value or end product. Yes, they will be liquidated for said cash, but this accounting cash they are turned into, will lose it's value to super inflation faster than you can blink or spend which ever comes first.

Within this mass of trillions in digital creations are our gold derivatives. Though much smaller in number than their currency cousins, their risk is "unlimited" in a real inflation crisis and could literally bring the dollar banking world to it's knees. These little items are the real object of the HR bill.

Why?

Because a real crisis in today's world will entail a dollar breakdown and loss of it's trade use that comes with such a breakdown. During this transition of currencies, the thinking world outside "Western financial perception" (much of Europe and Asia) will want physical gold, not just an
accounting lock on it's rising dollar price level.

Why?

They know "American Political Will" and how it reacts to real inflationary crisis events that appear on the horizon. Our HR bill is exactly such a reaction. It appears well ahead of the actual event it is replying to and is usually not understood by most investors.

Such a bill allows "hard money" positions to be liquidated into "cash only money positions" thereby delivering the owners directly into any paper inflationary fire without physical holdings that divert international exchange rate risk.

That means:

Your dollar holding values plummet, taking all their contract cousins down the same exchange rate river. While everyone defaults on gold deliveries because gold holders say "so sue me, I'm keeping the gold"! It's the only money asset you can't print.

The result is an ongoing official recalibrating of paper contracts that HR makes viable and is but one more confirmation that paper gold derivatives today do not equal and are not a substitute for physical gold.

Quite clearly one should conclude that paper gold will burn and physical gold will soar during the next crisis. I know because I now have Mr. G, Mr. S and Mr. R all on my side saying derivatives were never what we thought they were.

Are you with me, now? (smile)

Trail Guide

Chris Powell (10/31/00; 17:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 40333)Iraq, the euro, and physical

---------I'm just trying to figure out exactly how the S.O.B.'s will try to expropriate me once the price of gold breaks out of its paper stranglehold!--------------


Leigh (10/31/2000; 11:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 40325)

-----If, let's say, I wanted to pay a plumber or school tuition or some other bill, could I offer gold and it be readily accepted? And would there likely be no tax on the transaction?--------


Hello Chris, Leigh,

You know, if I wanted to pay anyone today or in the future, I could offer just about any medium. Gold, silver, bearer bonds, cash, stock certificates, car, truck, boats or chairs would all work.

Gains taxes would be due and we all would report it. But you have to ask yourself; in our world tomorrow, with inflation running away wouldn't it be the lesser of two evils to have and use major assets that held value against currencies than not to have them?

Our whole argument today isn't about anything new to gold bugs. It's just about realigning our holdings so the paper money inflators do not take us any further into their paper gold trap.

Yes, physical gold will trade at super values, but stocks trade at super values today too and our life doesn't change all that much. If new capital is needed, we sell some appreciated stocks and use the proceeds. Today and tomorrow will be no different as we use the fiat for trade and hold the asset for savings. Ages old game with an new twist, at least it's new to us; use real gold for savings! So, what if one gram of gold is worth $300 dollars (or whatever) tomorrow, this same game is played out the world over using failing currencies every day.

Again, the great battle now is in seeing how Western understanding of Hard Money issues was convoluted by getting us into using an industry and it's paper product as an inflatable substitute for the real thing. A lot of people lost in this and are still losing. My point is that there is a way to catch up, square the books and get back as this all unfolds.

It's not glamorous, but then again winning a game isn't always about being in style. Look at me? Hell, I still have all my leveraged Western friends, even though I beat them all. They just don't know it yet.

Very sociable of me, don't you think? (smile)

Trail Guide

Canuck Gold (10/31/2000; 10:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 40320)Reply to Trail Guide 40316

------With such a dislocation taking place, the price of physical would explode further. And if governments can get away with taxing the investors, what makes you think that they won't introduce onerous capital gains taxes or other 'fees' on gold transactions? Could you please expand on your final paragraph to 'ALL'. How will it change?------------


CG, From my #40316:

---ALL: One of the big roadblocks in the minds of Western investor is in the perception of gold as an asset in and of itself. They have seen it remain in a political value pocket for so long that they can only view the trading of gold as a means to an end. This too shall change!------

CG, Governments aren't "getting away" with taxing anything. First of all, they do today and will tomorrow tax companies as needed. What assets are left over after the government taxes a company is what you brought in value as your stock holding, nothing more. Their gold in the ground can never be yours as all you own is the cash derivative residue left at the end of them conducting a business operation.

Every company in this country is invested "in" with this clear understanding. Real assets are nothing more than the cash they can produce "after taxes". The fact that traders bid stocks for takeover prospects or some notion that they are worth more than what they can ever return in real after tax earnings has nothing to do with real wealth. Remember, in a fiat economy, the market for anything cannot represent an assets true value, only it's inflated trading bid!

So, they tax gold mines X times. What's new? Suddenly, sometime in the future gold becomes a real international asset (not a currency) as it recovers all the years of it's paper price understatement,,,, and governments want to impose a tax on this new reality.

But, then international trade protocols change and requires gold to be freely traded, demanding it's worldly citizens can trade it on equal footing with all other invest able assets (only just not leverage able). So, they tax and control it's production. OK, we all paid too much for the end assets of most mines, based on this new structure? Well so too did investors in the oil industry once oil shot up in
the 70s. They paid fat premiums on the expectation that reserves could be pumped at increasing amounts and at higher prices. But they never factored in how governments would through the TRC would impact their stock's PEs. Almost the very same thing gold stock investors did, recently.

Did they prevent our access to oil? No, global competition and protocol cut off most government initiatives in this area. Even today we find there is a limit to oil tax amounts so as not to prevent free competition. I know this is not a real or valid comparison, but it does give you think food, no?

Further,

When the Western world returns to thinking and using gold in a savings perception,,,,, the way it was for a thousand years and the way major players think today,,,,,,,, and stops waiting for governments to ordain it as money before it can be saved,,,,,,,, the sooner we will be free the
shackles of fiat money control. Keep using fiat digital for trade, yes! Keep trading assets so as to keep up with fiat's depreciation,, no longer needed!

thanks
Trail Guide

OK, Thanks for the clear reply. I guess I expect so much from you, like I was paying you to be my personal investment advisor.

Thanks sincerely for all you do.

If there is no massive short squeeze because of the recent bail out the big boys legislation, then what is the fate of the price of physical gold? Maybe it wont show any gains, really.

In my dim reasoning, as a fish out of his water, it seems to me that if many oil countries accept Euros for oil, then the dollar will take it on the chin. Will this make the massive derivative empire house of cards come crashing down?

And if it does, will this put upward pressure on the physical price of gold? Surely they cant manipulate the price of physical gold without the paper price discovery mechanism of the LBMA/Comex? (Which might be defaulting)

But why would the LBMA/Comex default, if there are no settlements in physical gold? (Assuming LBMA gets bailed out by simular legislation accross the pond)And if there are no physical gold settlements, then what exactly would put upward pressure on the price of physical gold?

Rampant inflation caused by cash settlements, driven by fresh paper fiat, created to fill the void?

And if we have massive dollar deflation, then does the real value of gold really change? If I hold an ounce of gold before the devaluation, and it buys a $250 suit, then the dollar devalues by half, and now suits cost $500, then I can still buy a suit.

Ok, I get it now.....We are not hoping to leverage a gain in physical gold, only hold our ground.

Before the devaluation, I buy the ounce of gold for my $250 fiat. Then after the slide, I only need half of the pre-slide earned value, as compared to the ..

No wait, because after the price hike, comes the wage hike...

I really need help with this..

I posted, and then saw your post below mine. I need to read and think for a while.

gidsek (11/01/00; 03:40:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 40364)
Rockgrabber Questions

Hello gidsek,
Nice work in working through the Rock's questions. I have one off the cuff point to inject.

My observations:
Why is it so many points are made referring to the Euro (or any other currency) not literally being backed by gold? Usually it's implied through the structure of the question or statement that somewhere, somehow, investors are buying Euros or expecting Euros to be strong again because it's "backed" by gold. Further, that backing description is meant as a throwback to official gold being exchangeable into the currency at a fixed rate.

Now, come on? That term "backing" is never meant to be taken that way. In that tense I know of no fiat backed by gold today. We all know fiat is not backed by gold today. The whole world knows that fiat is not backed by gold today. In fact, I have it on good authority that most of the
universe knows that fiat is not backed in that way by gold today (smile)!

So,,,,, exactly who or what group of people is this reference of "backing" perception pertaining to?

The truth is,,,,, no one! None of us see it in that light and none of us buy any currency thinking it is in some way offering a fixed gold return,,,,,, or even a limited fixed gold return!

How is it really seen?

If a military general is at war and walks to the middle of the battlefield to talk turkey with another general,,,,,,, his men usually stand with him. In the course of conversation he will point to his tanks on the hill as "backing" his men in battle.

--------and------------

No different than if you just lost all your money in a business venture and the banks are after your now broke self. Needing a little breathing room, you produce a certificate of account that indicates you have 60,000 ounces of gold bullion in a private vault in Argentina (or whatever) and ask if this gold "backing" me is worth anything to the banker?

Are you with me? I thought so. I knew so. (smile)

Thanks
Trail Guide

Your vieuw on CB's + Gold : not the price...but Volume counts ! Yes indeed !
The most irritating problem is : we can't tell CB's, what to do or not to do ! Democraty howhowhummmmmm ??
Without wanting to blame goldmine-industry...but they are the ones who are able to lobby the CB's into the correct gold-theory (again). Their production is part of the POG, balance mechanism, in order to obtain, orderly balanced currencies, for trade's services. Do we really need, drama's unfolding, to get attention, on the stabilising aspect of Gold ?
Yes, we do ! Dollarcollapse and POG > 1.000$ in selfdefense by the public and sophisticated investors.

Thanks -------Topaz msg#: 40367)----- for asking that question?

ThaiGold (10/31/00; 18:24:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 40337)
Freudian Slip.?.

---Freudian Slips?------

I don't know ThaiG, is that a dock where one ties his yach named "Freudian"? (smile)

No? Then what is the contradiction you see?

Trail Guide

I have learned a lot from these Political Economy
"hikes" by the Trail Guide.

* They are free.
* They are at the Internet - hence easily accessible.
* They are both backward looking (with history interpretation) and forward looking (they have predictive power).

Evidence is now accumulating in favor of his model:

* Gold price rises (after Washington Agreement)
and two gold mines (Ashanti & Cambior) almost
collapses.
* Futures contract cannot be converted to a warehouse
receipt at TOCOM.
* Longs forcibly liquidated by increasing margin requirements beyond the paper value of the contract at COMEX.
* Iraq demands Euro for oil.

I believe that one should not wait for
the final evidence - closure of gold contract markets!

LeSin (11/01/00; 03:49:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 40365)
Sir Trail Guide @ "Aussie Miner's Pickle in Vise Grips"

LeSin,
Thank you for the URL. I book marked it and will study. Have a huge Herb garden and regular garden for all types of gourmet cooking. We entertain a lot. Always brought sorrel, never grew it.

Gold Miners

You know, I own some miners and so do a lot of big physical gold advocates. What separates us from most other mine investors is our long term view. Actually this (our views) is something the CEO worship us for. We pick them carefully, don't trade and hold for their rebirth value after the
dust settles. All the cock sure traders never would accept this before but now they are listening.

Eventually, even with all the destruction most mine stock values will have, their new value will rest on the profits they gain over and above production controls and taxation. Yes, gold will go so high that the mines will still be left with some slice off this super high top. And that slice will be big!

But, before running out and loading up, we have to remember that these are not savings or hard physical holdings. They are business risks. Right from the beginning we buy and expect their values to drop. How far I didn't know then and don't know now, maybe this is their bottom. At least for
the super strong unhedged ones? Yet, to maintain this strong holding concept and deflect the risk that was coming I hold in a correct "very low" percentage of assets and expect a zero valuation for a time.

If they run tomorrow, good. If they run from zero, good. I don't care. Now you see why most hard money paper advocates cannot stand the pressure when the real blow off arrives (as it may be now). The real event always was much larger and different in scope than the 70s precedent we all learned how to play from. Success in this hard money stuff is for real savers, not shoot the moon rocket riders.

I think most average people will be very surprised at how bullion reacts to the coming party. It has an excellent chance of keeping up with any mine holding or paper bet. It has an even better chance of gunning well past both of them. In the end, most people will lean back and ask, "why did I work so hard at this". You see, old Saud knew how to count his chips and let the paper boys wear themselves out. So do I, so should you. (smile)

Thanks
Trail Guide

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=72637Reading from the bottom up today, got to Phos's mention of this so I thought I'd grab it for you before I take the kid off to school and possibly get distracted rest of the day. (Yeah, like work is the "distraction" from USAgold. Does anyone want to give their estimated daily reading time here. I think I'm at least an hour to get through a typical day's postings.)

Any confirmation, as per Phos (11/01/00; 05:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 40370), that Venezuela and Russia want to be paid for oil in euros?

Regards, j.

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/europeantelegram.htmlOver the course of this past year, USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has completed arrangements to offer to our friends within the European Union prompt, discreet, insured delivery of gold...directly to your door! Be the first person in YOUR neighborhood to enlarge the size of the family's gold savings under the auspices of the Maastricht treaty.

Please visit this link to learn more about how you, too, can join thousands of our satisfied American clientele who have already come to rely on Centennial's friendly services and professionalism to fulfill their gold requirements for nearly 30 years.

Please remember: It is your purchase of gold from Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes this website; including the daily market reports and monthly on-line newsletter.

Any confirmation, as per Phos (11/01/00; 05:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 40370), that Venezuela and Russia want to be paid for oil in euros?

Regards, j.

Any confirmation, as per Phos (11/01/00; 05:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 40370), that Venezuela and Russia want to be paid for oil in euros?

Regards, j.

Isn't Trail Guide great? He's just like a Y2Ker, with his gold and his garden! I'll bet there are solar panels on his house and a generator in the garage!!

Thanks, Trail Guide, for clarifying your answer yesterday. It's true I didn't quite understand it, but you did get me thinking. The trouble is, once I start thinking, I come up with lots more questions for you!

this is short covering, it's gonna explode

I thought that Russia is already trading oil for euros. There was an article some weeks ago that they had to reprice the oil because the euro had dropped so much.

Based on that it must be that there had been an agreement for the Russians to sell Oil at a fixed price in euros. And with the collapse of the euro, the Russians were getting obviously ripped off, and the price had to be renegotiated to reflect the change in value. Thus, Russia has already been trading oil for euros.

Relatedly Irak demanded that its oil be paid for in euros, which makes sense as it most definitely trades more with euro-bloc countries like France than it does with america.

ThaiGold,
At $50/0z there is not one mine on this planet still economical. Totally irrealistic. What are the CBs going to do once gold stops to be mined? Dishoard all their gold and hope that nobody will want or need gold anymore? Crazy. Because even if you don't want gold you still need it.
Look, gold has been here as far away back in history as one can go. More than 5000 years. This is not going to change. And it is certainly not a bunch of sick plutocrats able to reach such a goal.

"In fact, I have it on good authority that most of the
universe knows that fiat is not backed in that way by gold today"

Mr. Wolavka, was it yesterday or the day before that you sold the U.S. dollar index and bought the Swiss? No matter, your timing was exquisite. Dollar index was down today 1.24 to 115.38 while the Swiss Franc was up 0.73 to 56.60.
What does your crystal ball project for the dollar. How far does she fall?
Congrats on the correct call and even more so on the timing. It's very difficult to put both of them together.

I am tracking the march dollar index with a double gap , one left today and one back on 10-13 @ 11450 which should be filled tomorrow and then sideway to up before election.

Gold is marking time but support should take much higher.Could happen @ any time, tonite, tomorrow:

Gold has a great future because while everyone is looking @ all the past and what they believe to be a future, they have overlooked the greatest terrorist attack. Not the bomber but the unabombers outlook, THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!

The virus will shut down the world, get you some gold!!!!!

Is a consolation for my sore pro - miners (at least a preciious few) eyes - even as I feel being a real gold bug and having understood the quest for true money - a long time ago, maybe as long as the early 70's - I've still felt some diversification between bullion, unencumbered miners, cash and some core holdings in equities would be prudent - not to mention real estate - as long as it doesn't become more of burden - more in the sense of upkeep in terms of reinvestment - as in refix the roof or the rest it, than taxation, or god beware mortgage.
( I didn't mention bonds - as I've had an early lesson by a blue ribbon Wall Street firm, Brown Bros., Harriman, which had G.W.B's granddad as partner, proving that' real' capital appreciation in bonds is a rare occurrence - an occurrence, which I've experienced only between 1982 - 85 - as the US$ was trading at an all time low vs the DM et al and the yields have surpassed 20% on triple A's - well in 85 the greenback traded to almost pre-71 levels and the rest is history - and never touched any bond, debenture et al ever again - luckily, but the odds have been to adverse to make such a killing again in my lifetime!).
Back to gold miners. There still are the sturdy believers in their product, like HM, NEM, GOLD, HMGCY and some juniors, proving the case of their entrepreneurial capacity and hanging onto their beliefs of finding a new multi million ounce deposit. As we know few do, but still some succeeed - and the rate is almost 100% higher than with the established majors (why that is so is really another topic). Anyway, I'm still sporty enough to follow up on my (acquired) knowledge on this topic and have come up with identifying some of the recent and hopefully future success stories - and a lot of the other kind as well - still it has and may pay off in the future. Due diligence and careful analysys of your "bets" kept me out of Bre X, much to the chagrin of some of my friends for a time - as they made some easy money and I had egg on my face - until the situation turned ugly.
Even if BreX was the utmost scam in gold mining fraud - it may pale when history accounts for the gold derivative scam - sponsored by your friendly government agencies, the CB's, BB's, the IMF, World Bank and as it seems the BIS.
Go gold - some true miners and keep your perspective on
"hedging" your bets in some healthy diversication in your (hard) asset portfolio - feels cb2

http://www.bookmarkusa.com/dollar1Take a look at a chart of the U.S. dollar at the above link.

First...the latest stage of the dollar's is a ramp job at a much steeper angle then the previous multi-year move showed. A near fatal fall in October of last year was avoided (by the U.S. Treasury, imo).

Notice the two trend lines. The steeper is from the October "save" 'til now...the lower, and less steep, is the multi-year bull in the dollar. The white line is the 50 day moving average.

As you can see, nothing has happened yet...just a little blip down. Failure points are at the 50 day m.a., then the October '99 trend line near 113.50, then the second trendline at around 103.50. (Trend line drawing can be an art rather than a science!).

We should see REAL upward gold price movement when the dollar falls below these trendlines, especially the lower of the two - AND THEN DOES NOT RECOVER.

L.

Expect a computer system to crash. Who you gonna get, Microsoft? y-2k again, nah, maybe, luv bug, gold bug virus, yep that's it the dreaded gold bug virus blew the system up!!!!!!

Well, most of us have the virus and we're ready!!!!!!!!!!

Does anyone have the feeling there is a correlation between the way the HR bill was rushed to get approval by Greenspan and his buddies and the "Gold Derivatives Banking Crisis" report that GATA gave to Congress? Maybe Greenspan read it and saw the writing on the wall. Or maybe it was passed so quickly since Congress was warned what could happen. Or maybe I'm just rambling.
When was this bill produced to congress? Was it before the GATA report or after?

-Beowulf

As a long term investor and a holder of VBN shares of INCO I have hoped to prosper as this world class deposit gets developed over the next several years. Inco has recently tried unsuccessfully to squeeze the minority holders of VBN shares out by buying their minority interest at the bottom for a total of about $8 US when they paid $29 US four years ago for the same stock. If there are any other holders who own this stock I would love to talk with you. I am incensed that the INCO management unable to get the 90% tender they needed to complete this low ball bid are now seeking to take the company private to accomplish the same thing by squeezing out the minority holders at a low price just as the deposit finally appears to be about to be developed. They only need 66% to go private and they have scheduled a hurry up meeting to try and sneak this through before the other shareholders realize that there is no way they would be buying another $200 Million US of Voisey Bay Stock if they were not not going to develop it soon as they are claiming. This type of double dealing disgusts me and I am asking if there are any others who share my view?

Local power co. Nevada Power have increased rates 6.7% since July and has said that rates could increase a total of 64% by February 2003. I went to the Market to buy a lb of bacon and didn't when I saw the $5.49 lb . Maybe these are price increases and maybe it is just inflation but what ever it is there is no denying the fact that there is a train coming down the tracks and us poor consumers are right in its path. The only thing that cheers me up is that I have relieved MK of some of his Gold stash today. Don't worry there is plenty more at real cheap prices. Incidently my Electric bill for September was 1.4oz. Damn I got to get some more. White Hills

I feel good towards Agnico-Eagle as well.

A real class act.

Selective inflation ??
Re your >>>> I went to the Market to buy a lb of bacon and
didn't when I saw the $5.49 lb . <<<<

Bar-S brand hickory smoked, thick sliced, was $2.50/lb. on sale from $3.39 in Linclon City Or. just now.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Commodity%20Spotlight&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_comspot&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOdyUmhcER29sZCdzIf things don't "pop" by the end of the 1st qtr, I'll be selling my silver and gold. This is grinding me up, and spitting me out, to say nothing of the trouble I'm going to have on the home front.Oh, and college tuition, and corresponding expenditures. I would have bailed before now, except this forum has kept my resolve up. I'll let you all know as to when I will be selling, as prices will undoubtably rocket upward the next day. Wish I hadn't seen this article, even if it is a month old.



``The past year has been the worst 12 months of my life,'' said Louis Gignac, president of Montreal-based Cambior, which made a wrong-way bet on gold prices last year and saw its stock drop 86 percent in the past 14 months. The company now has $165 million of debt and a market value of about $27 million.

Others in the industry have fared little better, though some remain profitable. The S&P Gold Index of leading gold mining stocks has fallen during eight out of the past 10 years, losing half its value since 1980. It's down 23 percent this year.

``If we have another 10 years of low gold prices, the industry won't exist as we know it,'' said Trevor Steel, who manages the $10 million Mercury Gold and Mining Fund, a London- based mutual fund that is part of Merrill Lynch & Co.

"Without wanting to blame goldmine-industry...but they are the ones who are able to lobby the CB's into the correct gold-theory (again). Their production is part of the POG, balance mechanism, in order to obtain, orderly balanced currencies, for trade's services."
------------------------------------
Yes indeed!
I stayed away from discourse about producers in order to try and keep my post and focused to a small extent but I do agree.

gidsek

I'll tell you what IS depressing; selling boxes to some of the complete idiots we have to deal with each day!! Giving our product away; dealing with the best and brightest of our competitors whose concept of "value added" is cutting the price AN ADDITIONAL FIVE PERCENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You want to talk about depressing? I've made a good living in this business for 15 years but truth be told, it is one of the "dumbest" businesses I know. (Not for investment or career advice)

"So,,,,, exactly who or what group of people is this reference of "backing" perception pertaining to?

The truth is,,,,, no one! None of us see it in that light and none of us buy any currency thinking it is in some way offering a fixed gold return,,,,,, or even a limited fixed gold return!"
----------------------------------------------

No one? It seemed to me back a while there was great interest and excitement about the choice of the Euro gold reserve percentage which in certain cases I believe reflected confusion inre the true nature of "backing" (your tank on the hill Trail Guide .... beautiful!).

That said I must concede that the popular perception of "backing" is likely an accurate one and in truth I need to stop flogging that particular issue.

I think it's worthwhile for us to vet our ideas carefully though, before they are too deeply imbedded in our paradigms. I remember much venom being directed toward Martin Armstrong who as far as I can see has a great appreciation of gold... he simply believed that the dollar price was continuing down. He's been painted an awful color (not gold to be sure!) and now his "infamy" is a part of the mythology for some.

Thank you for your kind words Trail Guide, I look forward to your hikes :).

gidsek

"Hi gidsek,
Sterling effort re above and incidentally, a belated thank-you for the "Jove" explanation."
------------------------------------
You are certainly welcome and thank you for the compliment.
Away to work now.

gidsek

Whenever I read posts by this fellow named SKINNY, Barrick Gold's number one fan and professional ass-kisser, I can't help but wonder if he is the modern day embodiment of a retarded village idiot... or simply on Barrick's payroll, assigned to demoralize and infuriate gold investors ad infinitum.

In fact, that's what I wonder about all the cheerleaders behind Barrick Gold or Anglogold, are they truly patent morons?

Isn't it just so wonderful to own two gold companies, making huge profits, yet their stocks are trading at all time lows...and they keep sinking with each passing day? Isn't that just so dandy?

I especially admire the delusion of their shareholders that when gold falls low enough and bankrupts most of the industry, somehow their companies will re-emerge victorious from the ashes of ruin.

NOT a chance in hell!

Barrick and Anglo are aiding and abetting their own destruction, because I would imagine that the minds set on destroying gold as a financial asset, will not stop there. I have no doubt that despite any assurances the bullion banks may have provided to Barrick and Anglo, they will destroy Barrick and Anglo too because, the bottom line for them is this: destroy gold as a financial asset, destroy gold as a flight to safety, and make sure it NEVER threatens US Dollar hegemony again.

So not only do the US dollar supremacists wish to ensure that gold never rises from the gutter again, they will certainly ensure that gold companies never become lightning rods for capital again.

After all, if they were to allow gold mining companies (even if only a duopoly) to flourish again, then who knows, that might be the start of gold's resurrection. That would NEVER fly with the US Dollar supremacists, not a chance.

You cannot destroy gold as a financial asset or flight to safety without taking the entire gold mining industry down.

If I were Barrick or Anglogold execs, I would search VERY QUICKLY for new employment, because I imagine it is only a matter of time before their bullion bank partners in crime turn their guns in their direction.

Thanks

F*

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/C13.htmlDo any of the economists among us (ORO,TG, etc) know why the 1 year T-Bill has risen 1.1% above the 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr bonds the past two days? This seems to have some significance but I do not know what it is. The rise was fairly swift.

Your "cutting the price AN ADDITIONAL FIVE PERCENT !!!!!!" may be a sample of why we are not having as much price inflation as some think we should.

There is much argument over the claims of "Productivity" in this economy, but regardless of amount, if there is excess 'capacity' on supply lines there will be a counter effect to rising prices.

Competition by cutting prices is definitely more production chasing less money!

Dear All,

I am from the Far East and this is my first time contribution to the discussion. Allow me to first declare my interest. I am a regular salaried family man, believe in savings and provision for my family and kids. I have no borrowings. My assets are allocated as to 22% cash, 21% physical gold (bars & coins), 19% in retirement accounts (cash equivalent) and 38% real estates (no mortgage). I work in the old economy industry but studied business in my college days. My past career also included a period of time spent as an investment banker.

I learned a lot following daily the discussion in USAGOLD and feel obligated to contribute to the discussion from an Asian perspective, particularly, on the issue of the international capital flow and its relevance today on the direction of gold. This will be a long message though.

What we are witnessing is a 15-year cycle tsunami, which arose from the effects of the 1985 Plaza Accord in Paris. Remember it was at that meeting that the G5 nations decided to devalue the US dollar by 30% over the following two years. The withdrawal of funds from the US back to Japan had created the mother of all bubbles with the Nikki hitting 40,000 (15,000 today). When part of the Japanese capital arrived in Asia, it first gave birth to the four Asian tigers, then the Asian economic miracles until 1995.

In 1995, despite the bursting of the stock market bubble, the Yen continued to appreciate against the US dollar at a time when the Japanese were desperate to reinvigorate the economy through exports. The surge of Yen against the dollar broke the pride and back of the Japanese. Finally in June 1995, 7 US treasury officials went to Tokyo and I believe some kind of a deal was struck at that time. It may be the start of the now notorious Yen carry trade. For the chartist, witness how the Yen moved within this period from around 80 to 145 to the US dollar until the blow up with LTCM.

Similar to the Japanese market, the Asian stock market bubble was very easily created. First, some funds decided the story is good and through the weight of money, a few selected stocks were bought quietly first then ramped to sky high prices to justify the story line. Then on the back of superior performance of their investments in a few stocks, single purpose country funds were launched which attracted more money into these markets. Then it is the local investors who merrily joined the party. The slower fund managers then were compelled to get up to speed and create more mutual funds and more money flow to tap these markets. All of a sudden, pots of gold were found in every emerging market and the oracle of the economic false prophets proclaimed a new era has arrived. Of course, the industrialists arrived last and invested long term real money on the back of the newfound wealth and purchasing powers in these markets. The slowest of the lot were the local commercial bankers who doled out the largest amounts to finance bricks and mortars in inflated prices and production plants with flaky demand of their end products.



Now back to the June 1995 story, the focus is now switched to the US. It was the same plot except the cover is changed from the emerging market to the new Internet economy. A few stocks were ramped sky high, a few technology fund and say no more � a new game has started. Ecclesiastes 1:9 says "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." It is the same old pyramid game over and over again. They say, "New Economic Paradigm" and we say "Bull". Let the chartists read the US stock market charts from June 1995 onwards with this perspective.

To effect these macro changes, money must be spiced up and derivatives used and off the eyes of the public. Allow us to use the age-old technique of Watergate and follow the money trail through various offshore banking centers. The table below shows the movement of Japanese bank exposures to the various offshore banking centers between 1995-1999 extracted from BIS statistics (units in US$ Mil).

Japanese Bank Exposure to offshore money centers

Total Cayman Hong Kong Singapore Others


1999 161,528 75,117 36,328 21,029 29,054
1998 151,895 54,886 38,669 29,474 28,866
1997 216,367 52,188 76,272 58,649 29,258
1996 219,690 43,414 87,462 58,809 30,005
1995 263,672 26,584 133,146 76,929 27,013

Whereas Hong Kong and Singapore are the loan syndication centers for Asia, Cayman Island is the principal residence of Hedge Funds. Notice how even after LTCM, Japanese exposure to Cayman has not dropped. Although the Yen carry trade can't be played and Asian money effectively corned, the game cannot be stopped so the US/Japan axis decided to hit the Euros.

Now the European bankers vis-�-vis the Euro manipulation is not clean either because they played the same smoke screen and mirrors game. Tabled below are the games played the Franco-German axis.

German Bank Exposure to offshore money centers

Total Cayman Hong Kong Singapore Others
1999 80,635 26,358 14,446 15,779 24,052
1998 153,038 79,980 22,397 30,934 19,727
1997 130,868 45,736 28,047 39,177 17,908
1996 119,170 33,926 26,811 40,767 17,666
1995 110,654 41,777 24,203 29,717 14,957

Notice the build up to Cayman Island until 1998. We all know how the European convergence came about, but having exposed the shell game with LTCM, the Germans have to withdraw the secret spiced up trades.

Now how did gold get involved in all these. You may say. I believe the gold carry trade took on new meaning in 1995. Originally, it was the European banks legitimate way to earn some income from gold leasing but to finance all these macro movements what started, as a trickle became an essential finance source. Even more so after the suspension of the Yen carry trade. The abyss was opened for gold's medium-term (5-year's) demise.

The Europeans have the ability to push for the mother of all short squeezes, don't forget the French did it once to put US into default in 1971. For most part of 1999, it seems the Americans were unwilling to give up the newfound wealth and power status so the Europeans fired the Washington Agreement as the first salvo. The Iraqi oil trade in Euro is the second. Personally, I believe after the second salvo, US finally have to agree to hand back some of the fruits of other people's labor and we will see a 30% depreciation of the US $ over the next 24 months. As to gold, I think it will come back to around US$ 400/oz (but by then the US$ value will be very different to today). If this doesn't happen, then expect major trouble and turbulence until everyone comes back to the negotiating table. It is sad though through all these games of the elite, many economies and families have been ruined. You may ask why � it is not for wealth but for power and control.

My final advice � Gamble not on the imminent collapse of the world's financial system to give you worldly riches, if you have not psychologically and spiritually prepared for it to happen.

Tree of Life

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=All%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOf_jlBXFU2FkZGFt
11/01 00:01
Saddam Hussein and Ernst Welteke, Euro's Friends: David
DeRosa
By David DeRosa

New Canaan, Connecticut, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein has come through for the euro.

On Monday, Egypt's official news agency reported that starting
immediately, all international transactions with Iraq, including oil
purchases, must be done in euros, not in dollars, as had been the
practice. The dollar is ``out'' because Iraq sees it as the currency of
an ``enemy state.''

The dollar is preeminent among currencies for many reasons. The
dollar is the principal reserve currency of central banks, it's on one
side of almost every foreign exchange transaction and more
financing is done in dollars than in any other currency. Further, the
dollar is the currency of choice for international commodities
trading, oil being a prominent example.

So what Saddam is doing is kind of novel. He is trying to get at the
U.S. by boycotting the dollar. In so doing, he has turned to the euro.
There is a small -- and I hasten to emphasize small -- parallel here
to what happened in 1973. In the midst of the Yom Kippur War,
Saudi King Faisal declared an oil boycott against the Western
nations for supporting Israel. Faisal made oil a weapon. Now we
have Saddam making the euro a weapon against his enemy, the
U.S.

The Euro Weapon

Iraq's decision is a potentially important turn of events for the
currency world, but only if other Arab oil exporters go along with the
switch to the euro. That is highly improbable because Saudi Arabia
and Kuwait detest and fear Saddam Hussein. Following him by
adopting the euro would send a deeply insulting message to the
U.S., a country that they depend upon for their regional security.

But how much support will this really give the euro? The answer is
that it will provide limited support. The oil market is not likely to
change its architecture overnight -- not for Saddam, anyway. The
only time oil traders will use the euro is when they want to buy some
of Saddam's oil, and he isn't a big enough oil seller to make a dent
in the pattern of trade.

More interesting is what the Europeans think of Iraq's decision.
Ernst Welteke, the president of the German Bundesbank and a
member of the European Central Bank Council, was positively
gloating. Welteke, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, stated
on Monday that Iraq's use of the euro ``would be extraordinarily
favorable for the long-term development'' of the currency.

Talking Up the Currency

By the way, it is curious that Welteke, instead of Wim Duisenberg,
has emerged as the real champion of the euro. One would think that
Duisenberg, the president of the European Central Bank, would
have assumed that role.

Welteke works the currency market like an American political
strategist for an underdog candidate. He seizes every opportunity to
put a positive spin on the euro. Everything, and I mean everything, is
``good'' for the euro, according to him.

And every now and then he carefully jabs the market between the
ribs with a gentle threat of more coordinated intervention, though
which central banks would participate in another round of
intervention to buy euros is not known. The British are not really
interested, and neither are the Americans.

Another Bundesbanker, Edgar Meister, echoed Welteke's remarks
on Iraq. ``I would wish that the U.S. would support this,'' he said,
meaning the oil market's migration to the euro.

Mr. Meister, you are dreaming. The Americans would sooner
support the dollar being marginalized in commodity markets as they
would support burning their flag in public. The Eurocrats, it seems,
are clutching at straws.


�2000 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

Thank you Sierra, Gidsek, and Trail Guide for your responses to my questions. Looking forward to reading them again and again. You guys rip. I could not have found this type of teaching in college. Thanks again for the time and thought.

Rockgabber

(Kind of a high-falutin' name there, eh?)
But GREAT MATERIAL.

More! More!

So with your closing comment, are you predicting Meltdown is imminent?

And what do you mean by "spiced up money?"

.Spent the better part of the last couple of days "surfing" various other forum sites (not all gold related), including several discussion groups, "clubs", etc. I never realized the simplicity and appreciation I've come to have for the constant-thread forum format here. No headaches or hassles......just relaxing "read time". Like being back home after one of those long and frustrating vacations !

Kitco showing a $1.10 pop

I hope the tide is changing.

$hifty

The worldwide financial market is a house of cards, it will begin to crash when the PM producers (miners) cannot meet their calls. The first card. It will not last long afterwards. Good luck. Buy PGMs.

To Goldfly,

At the end of the day, what we are battling is a war on the mind. How do journalists verify what's real � if there are two or more independent witnesses. So the game first begin by planting opinion anchors. These are people (at least six) that investors/journalists will check against because your message will be against conventional thinking. However, even when anchors are properly planted, most people will not believe the story and so the story needs to be verify against market action. Therefore most covert market action take place through offshore money centers. The cycle is long the index futures, long the physical, write call options, square off the long futures, then delta trade. On the exit leg, the reverse happens, short the index futures, dump the physical, further short the physical and write put options. The same hands cannot do all the trades, so some are involved in the index futures, some in the physical, some in shorting the physicals and others in option trades. I classify anything away from the cash physical market as spiced up money.

Do I expect a melt down is imminent, no, if imminent is within the next 12 months. I do expect increasing volatility to a hot spot by 2003. We live in the best of times and we live in the worst of times.

Thanks for coming out of the Shadows and teaching us all !!
The view of the S.E. Asia is needed here. You together with Felix the Cat will make things much more clearer.
WELCOME !!
<;-)View Yesterday's Discussion.

Attn: rc (11/01/00; 13:21:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 40395)rc:
You wrote/asked:
[quote]
"At $50/0z there is not one mine on this planet still economical. Totally irrealistic. What are the CBs going to do once gold stops to be mined? Dishoard all their gold and hope that nobody will want or need gold anymore? Crazy. Because even if you don't want gold you still need it."
[unquote]

What you say, in the present era, is basically correct. But
there are some who could produce, even now, as low as $46.

My scenario/plan specifically mentions giving priority help to
all gold mines. Such as corporate tax exemption; zero cost
financing for expansion/development/production; waivers from
unnecessary/costly environmental regs (where safe); and a
release from their previously being flim-flamed into forward
sales of their gold at predatory pricing schemes. All this, in
lieu of (instead of) outright nationalization of the mines.

Under such conditions, many mines would be profitable and
good values to their shareholders. One must remember, that
in earlier eras, when our nation was on a Gold Standard, and
gold was at $20 / oz, the Gold Rush(s) of 1849 thru 1898 were
what built our Western states, such as California and Alaska.

What will the CB's do with their gold? Read my full plan. Their
gold is to be returned to the people/citizens who's wealth and
soverignty it represents. In the form of Legal Tender coins. Get
the gold out of their dusty CB vaults, and into widespread use
as widely circulating currency by their citizens. Worldwide.

Have you a better plan, than mine, to prevent the impending
financial meltdowns and chaos or to quickly rescue the world
from such a widespread catastrophic event.?. If so, let's hear
from you. I look forward to reading your comprehensive plan.

Cordially
ThaiGold@OperaMAil.Com

To Gandalf the White,

One more thought on Japan, since the bursting of the stock market and real estates bubble, interest rates in Japan have been continuously dropped to bail out the Japanese banks (notice all the mergers activities). However, the low interest rates whilst helping the banks to survive are killing the insurance companies. No financial institution can survive on a 1% return on assets and some of them are going bust. The Japanese Life Companies has a huge asset base and their liquidation will send shock waves across the world. A little bit of their liquidation have caused the Aussie dollar to sink. This also accounts for some of the recent Euro blues. The same will happen to liquidating their assets in the US.

Remember it only took $20 billion to drive a 20% change in the US$/Yen exchange rate in a thin market in 1998. Whilst the US$ is still commanding huge purchasing power, use it.

Attn: Trail Guide (11/01/00; 09:36:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 40384)Hello Trail Guide:
You wrote/asked:
[quote]
---Freudian Slips?------
I don't know ThaiG, is that a dock where one ties his yacht named "Freudian"? (smile)
No? Then what is the contradiction you see?
[unquote]

Nice response.!. I'm fascinated. If the truth be known,
I kept my ketch (a Sea Wolf 40) in NAVIGATOR's slip, at
Shilshole Bay, during the late '70's. Sold her about 1978 and
bot (brought) my first goldshares.!. New owner sailed her down
to her new home, and may be still there in a slip at Coos Bay.
Perhaps you've seen her in your travels, aboard your Freudian.
But I digress. Memories.

Contradictions.?. It appeared to me you were saying things
that implied a non-declared defacto gold standard to exist at
some point in the future to alleviate some international issues
in dollar valuations, settlements, imbalances, etc. Yet you've
often said we will not go onto a Gold Standard. Then you also
mentioned the Gold Eagle coin being a problem within all that.

Maybe we're both saying similar things but from different tacks
upon different winds. I'm a landlubber now, so enough of these
silly cliches'.

Being serious for a minute now, Sir, what I really need to hear
from you or ANOTHER, is (Paul Harvey accent) "The Rest of
the Story". Your scenario seems incomplete. The Trail leads
us to see Dollar Hyperinflation, begetting $30,000 /oz gold,
and $0.00 / oz Paper Gold. Etc. Things that most physical
gold buffs enjoy hearing. But they don't always envision the
consequences/aftereffects of such a realignment. Europeans
with their EURO's, seemingly have no worries.?. Only hapless
Dollar holders suffer under your scenario.?. But is that really
the case.?. I think not, and often wonder what all the myriad
real-life aftershocks would be. And how (Governments) would
rescue themselves and their populations from the grip of such
catastrophy. We here in the Forum need to address these
issues. You, from your viewpoint. And me, from mine. Let us
strive, together, to sail through all this fog.

Cordially,
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

280 before cloe on friday. no advice.

Haven't seen any posts from Aristotle for awhile.
Maybe I missed them.
Does anyone know. Sure hope he's okay.
ThaiGold

up we go!!!!!! no advice

Capital Tsunami's by carry trades ! This is the constant power, flowing in and out the boiler rooms ! Giant forces.!
They dominate a game with a lot of certitudes and almost risk-free.. Because they rule. Gold is another victim in the row of carry-trade victims. This explains the irrationnal behaviour of Gold, for quite some time now. Nothing can be done to confront the Giants. Dictators are never pushed, when in full power.
Wait until they get old and weak. Rise and Fall !
Dollar/Gold, must go to the place where that famous " bridge too far" is located. We are constantly looking out for that location. Up until now...just fata morgana's. Pessimism is the worst advisor.

But, what's the big deal....? We all know that dollar hegemony is Destructive at the end ! A more ridiculous POG, will inevitably provoke Massive indignation at some disaster point.
With a massive, spontanious buy spread as result.
A bridge too far + Squeese, can do miracles in a matter of no time. This is not wishfull thingking...but good old fashion logic. I am sure, this still works.

For the above reason...I'm starting to realise that any effort by the mining industry, "now", must necesarrely, bare no result. Against Dictatorial Speculation...one has to seek refuge in a defensive mode.
Look what happened to the net-bubble. Inspiring drama with known ending (CMGI). The dollar/Gold carry trade is exactly the opposite game. The powerfull actors have sufficient allies to keep the lit on the pot. POG decline is adding to the heat.

When "Speculation", becomes a too big part of the economy...the tail starts wagging the dog. US stockmarket capitalisation is 1,6 times GNP ! Taxes, derived from capital gains, amount to 1/3 of total tax income ! Desaster pole position.

It was very difficult to accept netstocks going through the roof with no profits and unreal valuations. It is even more difficult to accept that, a valuable reserve, is used as a vulgar piece of speculation object. Forget about the so called "management" by CB's. Goldproducers can do less more than sit idle in pure selfdefense. South Africans, still have gold for another 100 years, underground ! Do not underestimate this enormous reserve.(FL)

It is a very ugly world outside. Wild speculation, will receive it's bill one day. The taxpayer, will be the victim-payer, as usual. All these Giants, Traders and super-managers are dealing with other people's money ! That's why they do ...what they are doing now...exuberantly. Thanks.

Gold investors, have gold, as the ultimate protection against the excessive and dangerous Speculation.
Lifting the dollar skyhigh, is preparing the currency battlefield for nuclear response and selfdestruction. Unaccountable accumulation of Debt + Overvaluation is a sickening coctail. Who dares to contradict this fact ?
The crash of '87, was after the dollarhigh of '85 ! It wan't be different this time !!!

Hi Thai,
Don't give up your Gun rights (as we have over here).......just in case .

Do I need to slap you upside the head to see it???????

news story, front page, GOLD WAKES UP!!!!!

http://asia.biz.yahoo.com/news/asian_markets/dowjones/article.html?s=asiafinance/news/001102/asian_markets/dowjones/Australian_Gold_Hedging_Starts_To_Hurt_Producers.html

http://asia.biz.yahoo.com/news/asian_markets/dowjones/article.html?s=asiafinance/news/001102/asian_markets/dowjones/Australian_Gold_Hedging_Starts_To_Hurt_Producers.html

Thursday, November 2 12:58 PM SGT
Australian Gold Hedging Starts To Hurt Producers
By Stephen Bell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

PERTH (Dow Jones)--The hedge books of Australian gold producers has reached "concerning proportions", raising the potential debt bill of many companies, industry analyst John Macdonald said Thursday.

Macdonald, an analyst at the stockbroker CIBC World Markets, said the Australian currency's dive towards 50 U.S. cents has pushed the hedge books further into the red over the past few months.

He estimates that the four leading Australian gold producers -- Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), Newcrest Mining Ltd. (A.NEW), Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (A.SGW) and Delta Gold Ltd. (A.DGL) -- face a total $A1.8 billion in potential liabilities from their gold and currency hedge books.

"As an industry, the numbers are beginning to mount to concerning proportions," Macdonald said in a recent research note, which was based on company disclosures up to the end of September.

"The Australian dollar has fallen further since the end of September, extending the notional liabilities," he said.

Macdonald estimates that the total bank debt of the four gold companies stands at around A$2.5 billion.

"Add in (hedging) exposures to smaller groups like Centaur (A.CTR) (minus $150 million at the end of June 30), and there may be potential for an unpredictable turn of events if any bank breaks the ranks of support in any once instance."

Macdonald told Dow Jones Newswires that gold hedging problems seem to be centred on Australian companies, with major overseas groups such as Canada's Franco Nevada Mining Corp (T.FN), Homestake Mining Co (HM), Gold Fields Ltd. (GOLD) and Harmony Gold Mining Co (O.HRM) either unhedged or running relatively small books.

The world's biggest gold producer, AngloGold (AU) of South Africa, last week revealed it has 16.5 million ounces hedged equivalent to roughly two years' production.

"AngloGold does hedge," Macdonald said. "But they are not subject to the same issues we (Australians) are. When they do hedge, they hedge in US dollars, so they are still in front."

According to AngloGold, the marked-to-market (liquidation value) of its hedge book as of September 30 was US$80.4 million.

Greg Barns, chief executive of industry lobby group the Australian Gold Council, said the latest statistics show that Australian producers are running down their hedge books, but very slowly.

"The preliminary numbers for the September quarter indicate a further decline in the hedging position of Australian producers, from 42 million ounces in the June quarter to 41 million ounces in the September quarter," he said.

"That is the second consecutive quarter of decline in hedge book positions."

Barns said Sons of Gwalia hasn't hedged any gold this year, nor has WMC Ltd (WMC) and "Normandy hasn't done anything serious". He also said that gold producers are "starting to get some benefit from the lower Australian dollar and that is reflected in the quite good profit results for the September quarter".

Barns said that Australian producers now have the "most transparent hedge book positions in the world". This follows the Council's release last month of a new hedging standard, designed to "improve the format and level of disclosure of hedging of precious metals and foreign currencies by gold producers".

Rock and a hard place LeSin Wot?
Probably seemed like a good idea at the time but, for the life of me I can't rationalise a hedge book denominated in A$ when dealing with counterparties who, without batting an eyelid can devalue your currency by 15-20%.
What a sorry state of affairs - POG dropping, A$ dropping moreso, Miner in the middle getting squeezed.

http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyid=117459

Oil & Gas News: Archived Story
US Firms Covet Iran's Big Oil Deal with Japan


By Peg Mackey

DUBAI, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Iran's tantalising offer to Japan on one of the world's hottest oil developments has left U.S. firms once again out in the cold, analysts said on Wednesday.


But cutting edge technology from American firms, barred from the oil and gas-rich Gulf state by unilateral U.S. trade sanctions, might well buy entry for some into the giant Azadegan oilfield once the curbs are lifted.

"It's a very wise political move on Iran's part to get Japan, a major oil-dependent consumer, involved in OPEC's upstream," said Mehdi Varzi of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson.

"But to maximise the benefits of Azadegan there should be an infusion of American companies which can provide the most advanced upstream technolgy," Varzi added. "Whether it's provided by oil majors or service companies is another issue."

Iran agreed on Wednesday to give Japanese firms negotiating rights for the appraisal and development of a specific area of Azadegan, the world's biggest undeveloped oilfield with potential to pump up to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).

OIL SUPPLY PARAMOUNT FOR JAPAN

For Japan, which imports virtually all its oil requirement, security of oil supply is paramount.

"Japan has been looking at Azadegan for a long time," said an Iranian oil source in Tehran. "That interest sharpened after Arabian Oil Company lost its oil concession in the (Saudi portion) of the Neutral Zone last February."

Japanese firms had been reluctant to invest in Iran partly because of Washington's Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, which threatens to impose sanctions on foreign firms investing more than $20 million in Iran and Libya.

Although it is very early days, that portion of Azadegan up for grabs at this stage looks set to go solely to Japanese companies, oil sources in Tehran said.

"After all, Japan has always helped Iran in the worst of times," said an industry source.

As a condition for signing Azadegan, Tehran might ask Tokyo to lift liquefied natural gas from Iran or import more non-oil goods from Iran, said an oil source in Tehran.

"Balance of trade is very important for Iran," he said.

Iranian oil officials said the National Iranian Oil Company could develop part of the giant oilfield, situated by the Iraqi border, under its own steam. And as mandated by Iranian law, a percentage of the field would be given to a domestic partner.

"This is one of the best reservoirs and Iran does not want to give it easily to a foreign company," an industry source in Tehran said. "But if Japan is determined, Iran can find a way to compromise."

U.S. companies might find it hard to get a look at Azadegan even if sanctions are lifted.

"There are no restrictions on American companies but Tehran might not be inclined to give part of such a fantastic oilfield to one of them," said an industry source in Tehran.

But given the sheer scale of work to be done and the complicated technology and huge investment required, Iran might have to soften its stance, analysts said.

And Conoco, with its long track record in Iran, could be in pole position to lend a hand once Washington eases sanctions, said industry sources in Tehran.

The U.S. firm was the first to sign a so-called "buy-back" for Iran's Sirri oilfield, but the venture was lost to France's Total after Washington slapped sanctions on Tehran in 1995.

"Conoco has always been very cooperative and stayed in close contact," said a Tehran source.

That cooperation extends to Azadegan. Conoco recently said it had analysed seismic data from the field after NIOC said it would consider the firm as a potential candidate for Azadegan's development if sanctions were lifted.

SANCTIONS HAVE COSTS FOR U.S.

With the trade ban apt to block U.S. firms from yet more Iranian projects, U.S. companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Conoco are stepping up their contacts with Tehran and pressing on with an anti-sanctions campaign.

Iranian officials have said U.S. companies are showing increased interest in Iran out of a belief that U.S. curbs will be scrapped when ILSA itself expires in August 2001.

So far Washington has yet to act under ILSA against firms such as ENI, TotalFinaElf SA and Shell which have signed deals.

The Europeans are set to snare even more business. Buy backs for the Darkhovin and Chesmeh Kosh fields are expected to be signed soon with ENI and Cepsa, respectively.

And Shell, ENI, TotalFinaElf, Lasmo and BP are all in the running for the multi-billion dollar Bangestan onshore oil development package.

Iran needs foreign help to lift output capacity from just over four million bpd now to five million bpd in five years.

Petroleum Finance Company Chairman J. Robinson West said recently that slapping sanctions on key producers like Iran, Iraq and Libya did not amount to a cost-free foreign policy.

"Our analysis estimates that sanctions have caused about 1.5 million to two million barrels of oil production capacity growth to be lost due to a lack of investment," he said.

After the avalance down the escalator , the Aussie reserve bank stepped in and took the $AU up the stairs 2 cents/steps. And here is little old me spouting off to my friends at .52 US the Reserve will baulk. nigh on .02 off the mark. The Au hedgers must have bellowed something?.

Gap being filled in march dollar index down to 11450, have a nice day!!!!!!!!!!!!

You guys making this too simple.

TO RIGHT MATE! All Aussie miners need now is for the Fed Gov to announce another major Gold sale, in support of the lame IMF policies.

Miners are much like poor farmers, always cap in hand to their unfriendly bankers. The "Game" is far too "Slick/Smooth" for most honest thinking people and good miners included.
My, I cannot even spell 'derrivative' the correct way twice, do not even know if I spelled it correct then. Does any "common" regular people, hard working Moms & Dads, really know what the "H" derrivatives are? Did most miners ever understand their downside risk? Bullion up, local currency down or visa versa. I doubt that they ever read the fine print. Nor do we often read the fine print.

"New-Speak" has been invented to confuse honest investors and persons with hard earned savings. 'Derrivatives', 'warrants', hedge fund covering, are simply new shells to hide the pea under, while they manipulate the bullion price and counter the currency against or for you at will. There was a time that all an investor had to worry about was "Buy" "Sell" "UP" "Down", "option" "Swap" all which are clear terms with no ambiguity or hidden meaning or complex definition.

It is all "BS" and a large Con, however within the confines of legal system it may or may not be. The Squeeze is on, The wheels are in motion, it will not stop until it is played out in full. The hedged darlings are toast. The present system is unsustainable all the useless paper manipulation is being exposed. Paper covering paper, covering paper, covering paper, covering paper etc. I support the Trail Guide and follow well his trail and those footsteps of giants. Following the footsteps of giants is very easy, because there are so few and their footprints are easily recognisable. I believe it!! "S"

For those who bought dec gold on 10-27 @ 264.40, hang on.

Hi Friend and welcome . My my your English is very good, so good indeed I guess you are Singaporian educated , with close ties in HK. Perhaps I venture to suggest tentatively that we may be able to meet at the Mid level area and or HK peak for dinner sometime in Jan/Feb for a light hearted no business pre/post Kung hei fat choi :) one evening as you please.

LeSin,
Want to help the miners? Want to help people? Send this message to every person in the gold business! Promote it's use as a product slogan to the WGC and ask every miner to plaster it on their trucks, offices and billboards. Ask every bullion and coin dealer to use it if they want your
business. Promote gold for it's main primary use for over the last thousand years;
-------something to own and save ---------

Endear this message into the minds of average people and watch the world change! For the better!

=========================================
Gold: a real savings as natural as the earth itself
Doing so will support the world's gold miners;
good people that work to bring us a wealth that never goes out of style.

Physical Gold Advocates 2000 - "saving your efforts today, for their use tomorrow"
========================================

It would make a real difference in the perception of a lot of people. But I doubt it would ever be accepted by the industry. (frown)

Trail Guide

Over the last few days all my posts linking Trail Guides page have been deleted on the Yahoo message boards for HL-GSR-BMG-KGC-TVX...

I just thought it was interesting that the powers that be left Kitco and Goldeagle links alone but found the Trail Guide links as too offensive to leave in place....

The truth hurts, it seems....

Make sure you repost them then. And point out the fact to the board of posters.

You remind me of the shortest verse in the bible "Jesus Wept." Good to see you coming out from thy shell. I know you are onto something , "I can see by the exclamation marks" !!!!!.
I nickname you from the spontainious the heart "The Smiler"!, and I mean that in an affectionate way. Warm regards :) Raymond. P.S extrapolate.

http://sunsite.berkeley.edu/Literature/Thoreau/CivilDisobedience.htmlThis is a teriffic keeper. Please enjoy and share!

TrailGuide wrote yesterday:

"Now, come on? That term "backing" is never meant to be taken that way. In that tense I know of no fiat backed by gold today. We all know fiat is not backed by gold today. The whole world knows that fiat is not backed by gold today. In fact, I have it on good authority that most of the universe knows that fiat is not backed in that way by gold today (smile)!"

today,today,today,today,4 times today.Striking somewhat.
Is there a way with this "fiat physical Gold" to in a way back (sorry) a currency?Not the fixed exchange but:today 15%-POG at 3000 150%-you can print more money now and circumvent deflationary dangers??

I believe you have revealed a central element of strategy.

scumballs are working in europe!!!!!!!!!!!!

Luke 10:22

Tree of Life (11/01/00; 22:02:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 40415)

Hello Tree of Life, and welcome!

Nice posts. I have a few points to comment on.

------Now how did gold get involved in all these. You may say. I believe the gold carry trade took on new meaning in 1995. Originally, it was the European banks legitimate way to earn some income from gold leasing but to ---------------

ToL, there are all kinds of explanation making the rounds as to why the CBs lend their gold. I agree that they did and do participate in some lending. But that was only in the beginning. It helped precipitate a market for other motives to hide in. We must look at the nature of the beast to
understand why it's just a smoke screen.

From the very beginnings of capital markets, no one lends their assets for free. Actually, I say it's from the beginning of time, but there is some argument against that one. Some people have even gone so far as to say that the banks lend gold based on it's booking value, around $50/oz (pick any low number if you will). Then, the 1% or 2% they get, based on the selling price looks good.

Then some tell me that gold is like holding Yen reserves and that 1% is about the same? Indeed, I know some of them do lend with this perspective, but that analogy is based on a very, very small reserve comparison and only a tiny amount of gold would be used to balance this.

Well again, none of these guys lend anything for free and that is what 1% is when lending in at least a 4% world. It just doesn't happen

The original "gold deal" as it first came into play involved lending the gold, the borrowers (BBs) selling it for cash and then they (the BBs not the mines) pooled that cash in a holding account. There it was held in interest bearing instruments, not delivered as financing to the gold mines. That pot of cash grew with it's added interest and became the ever increasing per ounce price the mines sold their production to in later years. Fulfilling their contract.

Having entered into these contracts that guaranteed a pot of cash to buy their gold production, the mines could use these contracts as fixing their profit margins to borrow money against and expand their operations. OK;, so this is how it started. I think American Barrick was the pioneer of this
back in 1986??

But, as I opened with above, this was just a lead-on sanctioned by the governments to create a market for paper gold dealings. All the rest that followed we have discussed endlessly. However, my main thrust in this is that the CB did have a political return to gain by starting this, it wasn't done for free.

Now, if this was a real lending operation with the intent to get some return on their idle bullion, they could have easily structured it far differently. As it is they lent the gold into a contract scheme that gained them far less then the actual rate returned. The mines would have been happy to create the deal even if it fetched a static guaranteed gold purchase for them. Thus giving the CBs a much higher return. You see, the mines motive was not to receive a higher than market price for gold, rather receive a stable price for gold so financing could be arranged. The fact that gold prices fell made Barrick (and many others) look real good and their staff stood for all the praise. When in fact
they didn't know it would work this way (back then).

Today, and over the last few years, with gold ever falling, all sorts of gold deals have bee worked out that have no connection to the CBs. A lot of it is completely outside the mine industry too. It's been carried so far that much of the stuff is just naked financing based on gold's price. The real return was in playing the official stance that gold must fall a little every chance it had to encourage
dollar settlements for trade. It's that simple. Drawing up a gold contract didn't have to have but a little gold selling involved and could be done just lending mostly fractional cash, borrowed at close market rates. The falling gold price did the rest. That's why so much of the value in a lot of current paper is worthless if gold rises. There is no physical to cover it! Why do you think they can trade
more paper in Britain than actually exists? What a mess, huh?

I'll tell you something else and this applies to Farrel's earlier post. All you have to do is dig real deep in that miner's papers to find where they must post more margin to back their deals if gold rises over $600. This isn't just my little guess, so ask them to see if I'm wrong (smile)? I bet that thing is back worded to include equal treatment for all creditors in a crisis and has an escalator clause in it that could take that whole co out if gold gunned to $2,000 in a week? Of course no gold delivery, just an accounting adjustment that would change some ownership. You see, they (and all the other hedgers) bet big time that the IMF/Dollar group could keep gold in it's paper price pocket forever. They never thought about what would happen if gold got priced in Another medium, a Physical only Medium!

HO! HO! HR 10,000 here we come! (smile)

Thanks
Trail Guide

Foolsgold51,

I bet even my little saying in #40442 would get knocked off. Looking back at it they would probably think it was a slur against miners. It wasn't.

Mine investors slam the only people that can help then (physical buyers) while encouraging leverage traders to take short term plays in their favorite stocks. They say they invest in the industry for all it's positive fundamentals, then laugh at the fundamentalist for buying such a slow investment???

They want everyone (governments included) to stop selling gold, but when these gold holders decide to leverage up (instead of owning gold) the traders cry at how stupid the sellers actions are.

Trail Guide

ALL:
I've been sick with a bug for the last few days (been in and out)and am over it now. Have a lot to catch up on so will be gone a while.

Let's talk later

Trail Guide

same as gold! russian in trouble.

Thank you Tree of Life for your very articulate and knowledgeable perspective.
ThaiGold...
I have been reading your scenario and must admit that I don't like it very much as I am a hiker and trying to store my present productivity.
In your latest post on the subject though, you mention the CB's emptying their vaults. That would change the nightmare to a dream. Once they have done that, they will have no more power over the yellow. People such as myself, will hoard gold and not circulate it knowing that you're scenario was just another small footnote in golds long and storied history. I would be perfectly happy to buy all I could at $50 as long as it lasted, knowing that even if it never got free during my lifetime, I could pass it to my heirs. Also, do you forget that the BIS values their gold at 280? If they were getting set for such a devaluation, would they be freezing out their private investors? I believe they would be suckering as many in as possible so that they could spread the loss.

Again, thank you all. My college economics education pales to my daily reading here.
Back to lurking... (until something comes up that I just can't resist)

don't expect these to retrace!! Have a nice day.

New to this site, can anyone tell me what they think of Homestake mn. been holding for a long time and am hoping it makes it through coming destruction.

I wonder what it is?

Date: Thu Nov 02 2000 11:47
merlin36 (dave gleason (bright boykie at times ) ) ID#33736:
Copyright � 2000 merlin36/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Cause for worry when gold dealers have time on their hands
David Gleason
November 02 2000
A very proper employee of the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) wakes up each morning in Basel with a load on his mind. He has to sell 1,5 tons of gold by the end of the day; if he doesn't, he has to sell 3 tons tomorrow and so on.

He is the BIS man charged with responsibility for selling off 1 400 tons of gold, which the Swiss in their wisdom have agreed to release from their national reserve of 2 590 tons. And his problem, no different from that being confronted daily by bullion traders everywhere, is that there's no demand. That's one reason why gold, at $264 an ounce, is now at its lowest level since May last year.

Not that the Swiss care much about it. Their gold is in the books at around $190 an ounce so they may as well sell while they can still earn a bit of profit from it. This is of course the same attitude as that of just about every other First World central banker.

While bullion sinks slowly and remorselessly, what is also noticeable is that no one is standing up with words of encouragement or warning that these sales may prove perilous in the long run. This silence in the defence of gold speaks eloquently about the way markets now view the metal's fragile future.

Next week will be the eighth bi-monthly gold auction to be conducted by the Bank of England. It will then have sold off 200 tons of a total projected sale of 415 tons and these sales will continue into 2002. The chances are that next week's auction will fetch a price below the prevailing spot price. The truth is that order books are empty.

What a depressing scenario. I know of at least one senior London bullion desk manager who is muttering darkly about finding alternative employment before he's tossed on to the streets.

And what is also interesting is that there's an absence of producers lining up to buy the metal. You'd think, if they believed in their product, they'd be eager beavers to buy it when the price is on the deck. But another truth is that there is such a pervasive lack of confidence in gold that no one is prepared to put his money where his mouth is.

Nor are producers merely shy about buying gold; they're also proving rather reluctant to buy back their own shares, common enough practice if you have faith in your business. Part, at least, of the reason for this is that some South African producers are cash shy, notably AngloGold, the world's largest gold producer.

Its counter is trading at a two-year low - in any other circumstances a dead cert to be bought. But AngloGold has its own set of cash flow problems. It always knew this would be a tough year and that's how it has turned out.

Gold Fields is another company whose stock is, in theory at any rate, at a price that invites purchase. What's more, the company has a cash cushion of nearly R700 million but Chris Thompson isn't exactly rushing in with buy orders.

Harmony is also cash flush but it's thought chief executive Bernard Swanepoel may have his eyes fixed instead on an asset such as AngloGold's Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines.

All this leads, of course, to that old issue of "consolidation", as AngloGold's Bobby Godsell likes to call it. In large part this is supposed to mean removing farm fence boundaries and mining orebodies as they were laid down, rather than according to rigid lines drawn on the surface. It can also mean sharing facilities such as hospitals and training instead of replicating them.

Godsell insists this process is by no means complete in this country, and then points out that something similar exists just about everywhere else too - along the Carlin trend in Nevada, in Canada and in Australia. In AngloGold's case, however, any action it takes along these lines is likely to be in asset shedding - it needs to get rid of South African operations that aren't paying their way.

Among others that means Elandsrand and Deelkraal. It may also mean assessing the best way of extracting gold from select areas, such as Savuka, for example, in the northwest quadrant of Western Deep's lease area and which is probably much better mined by next door Blyvoor ( in the Durban Deep stable ) .

There are clearly many deals to be done and AngloGold, for its part, will want to do those that put cash on the table. Until its Geita mine in Tanzania and Morila in Mali kick in over the next two years, it is likely to continue being cash strapped.

Whether there are deals to be done or not, help from bullion is unlikely. Let's face it, were it not for the rand's miserable showing against the world's reserve currency - the almighty dollar - the local industry would be up to its collective shovels in manure.

www.kitco.com**I wonder if the CNBC's and Moneylines know they are being used to cheerlead the markets and hold gold back? What do you think?

Date: Thu Nov 02 2000 10:56
sharefin (Barrick - Gollum) ID#284255:
Copyright � 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm as big a bull as ever on the long term - but my view are stretched out over years.
Gold feels bullish to me but it also appears to have a substantial pressure holding it back.

I just can't believe that they'll let it go up till they want it to go up.
It's obvious that the game is controlled by big pockets.

When you see the extent in the growth of derivatives this last year and observe what the POG has done, you get to appreciate the numbers these big boyz are using to control gold.

They will control it till they cannot.
When they turn and run - run with them.
Till they turn then we know what's going to happen.

Now will their vice like grip get smashed for some reason?
Or will they themselves decide that they want to turn and run?
These are the only two possibilities for gold to go up under.
Until then situation normal.

Likewise with the sharemarkets.
Their paper game is one which they wish to propagate.
They don't wish it to go against them.

I guess I've come around to the Forrest Gump style that Oldman always mentioned.
Follow the politics, follow the trend, follow the money.

Now all the above is not to say that I believe that it will stay this way.
I think we're almost at the verge of a major sell-off.
If we don't get one in the next month then I guess they'll just keep on doing what they are so good at.

I believe gold is way oversold - all my charts are pointing to the extremeness of the last period.
I also believe that this bottom in gold is going to be the big one.
It's not a leg in a continuation downtrend but rather the capitulation spike at the bottom of the downtrend.
Now I believe that the only way gold will go up is for the big boys to loose control.
And the only way that'll happen is with a major market correction.

So timing wise we should see gold roll over and head northwards after the correction.
The big boyz are currently attempting to prop the markets and hold gold back.
That the equity markets are now spiking up in a blow-off suckers rally
And gold is being hammered at the same time at the bottom of its lows.
Sort of speaks to me that the timing is close.
That they are doing this at both ends of these separate realms ( fiat/gold )
Sort of says to me that they are acting aggressively to retain control.

I see gold under a lot of pressure here and believe that they will not let it rise at the moment with the threat of the markets overhanging.

I sort of see that they will keep the pressure on gold as these sharemarkets rise.
As the sharemarkets roll over I expect the pressure on gold to increase substantially.
So no rally in the POG here � they won't allow it.
And immense pressure on the POG when the sharemarkets go under.

Then they will lose control & the POG will rise.

Nothing might happen here ( timewise ) and things may get stretched out over time
Perhaps the game will continue on for another year.
I don't know,

Many may think me crazy but that's my take of what's happening here.
I believe that the deep pockets have control � after all they have the power and the money
And that they won't give up their positions ( can they actually unwind )
Till they have to/want to/are forced to.

Same with the markets � whilst they hold control - then it will do as they wish.

That we're at the bottom of the downtrend and spiking into a capitulation phase
Whilst the markets are still rising.
Tells me that this move is not yet over.
I believe that the POG will go lower as they eke out their last moves.

If gold was to rally here then I doubt that this bottom would be meaningful
And I'm a firm believer that this is the bottom and there's not going to be another one following.

So therefore we must plumb new lows in gold whilst waiting for the sharemarkets to play their game out.

Painful yes � predictable � follow the deep pockets���.
All in my humble opinion.

I would tend to agree with Tree of Life (very wellcome {to you too}) that today's overblown derivative gold hedging in contrast to former gold loans by miners, as a cheaper way to finance new projects into production. A clean and practical for both parties. Besides, the lender had to have the assurance by indepth feasibility studies of the project to get their gold back, in kind, I may add.

These kind of gold-loans have been facilitated by specialized mining finance houses as the likes of Rotschild's, or Smith,Newcourt's for generations. And of course some prudent hedging - usually up to max. one year of production, as it was the futures or commodity exchanges rules anyway, have been regarded as normal and prudent business practises - and what's more still would.

Only with the advent of the overleveraging hedge and derivative community, always on the lookout of engineering new end ever more complicated financial vanilla instruments under the pretext - or better total aberration - of calling these schemes hedging - the likes of GS and other perfectly normal banks and investment banks have been sucked into this game of carry trades now known as BB's. A name probably derived as sporting a ranking high enough to qualify as lenders of bullion from the CB's. While, here may be political, as well as economical motives to lend out gold, discussed here and elsewhere in the past.

This highly profitable scheme may have carried away the main players and evermore they "induced" the miners to play along - and now in extremis - the once so profitable game is overwhelming the (counter- or not so counter-) parties and running -ever faster - into a concrete (road) block of major proportions -as the "physical" playing chips rapidly diminished and vanished into hidden, though deep pockets of "cardsharps". With less and less chips left on the table - and some players even borrowed already more that they can ever hope to repay - the endgame draws close.

... Now, just who're the "cardsharps" with all the golden chips calling for payment in kind and how will they change or make new rules? ... cb2

The beautiful flower of contrived prosperity draws its sustenance from all other parts of the living organism. When the lifeforce of the remaining organism is drained the flower withers. All is given to keep the flower beautiful.

This flower though is false. Unlike other flowers it has no seed. The behavior of real flowering plants is similar. In real flowers, the lifeforce of the plant is sacrificed for the unborn progeny that will carry on through time. The beauty is maintained to attract agents of pollination for the seeds hidden within.

This flower of contrived prosperity maintains its beauty for its own vanity...though it seeks pollination, it bears no fruit....it dies a final death.

Believe it or not there was a commercial on CNN from an unnamed company offering information to anyone interested in adding Gold to their portfolio. NOT fool's gold, but real honest to goodness GOLD. Could it be that word is starting to leak out?

Christopher

Boring, time to start buying!!

If you hedge gold short side, whatever profession, cover now last chance

New to this site. Some stuff way over my head, but hope to learn a lot. I'm one of those nasty commodity traders, and yes I'm long gold. Like wolavka's short to the point input. (not advice) :) Guess I got out of grains too early! Rat's, looking for another opportunity to get back in. Are you guys sure this gold thing is going to take off?

watch tonites globex, if we open 266.80+ we could run to 272with 280 objective before close on friday. They'll use employment report to move this mkt as excuse.last 5 trading days bunched range and stops , so expect alot of action.

Todays false run up in dollar index would signal a weak employment report thus more down and strength into sharemkts to support election and give euro support.
magic mirrors false values all same as our illegal system which is run with criminal law.You own the gold you answer to no one. end of story. no advice.

Yes, it will take off... sometime in the next 5 years.

Look @ a march dollar index chart and you will see how this will evolve. Todays range stopped short of filling the downside gap down to 11450. I expect it to trade down to this point tomorrow and could test 11400.

If the employment situation support dollar, fudged, the index will run up and fill the gap it left on wednesday @ 11650

Gold and swiss franc and euro which i follow are hinged on the dollar.

No matter how they ramp it tomorrow, (election) the dollars high on 10-26 should hold and gold will prevail.

evil does have its' limitations. no advice.

Priceline.com down 25% in after market trade.
Boy this is getting to be routine :-))) "B to B" next?
G.T

Are you sure you are going to make it into the office tomorrow morning? There are an awful lot of trucks on the roads these days, you could get hit by one.

Yes, I am sure gold is going to take off (be that in terms of the dollar, or in purchasing power) however I am not sure of the timing.

Looks close, but I have been wrong before.

In my opinion HM is not only going to make it over to the other side, but will emerge as one of the premier mining
companies.

watch the price of gold run up to $280- from here, after consolidating over the coming week.

For the record

Aw shucks, I'll just come straight out with this one:

QUESTION OF THE DAY: What is the ULTIMATE derivative -- perhaps you might call it the derivative's derivative -- that underlies ALL futures speculations, money money substitutes and "commodities?"

HINT: The answer isn't gold!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I think this may be a tough one?

Could it be... fiat money based on debt?

cut thru all the crap, this currency that dollar , this report that report; oil has and is too strong and has done its damage. People are being laid off like crazy (wait till employment report comes out) dot com crap has given people false sense of security not to mention the brain dead puppets who pull strings in mutual funds, 401ks. World debt crisis, wars, and the stupid U.S. government with its moronic leaders, this financial system is gonna blow up.

When you see a banana republic like England stand defiant and refuse to reduce the taxation upon its working middle class on a basic necessity as fuel, the end is near.

Great to see your last post was more then 2 sentences.
The more u write the more enjoyable I find your posts

"The beautiful flower of contrived prosperity
draws its sustenance from all other parts of
the living organism. When the lifeforce of
the remaining organism is drained the flower
withers." -Henri msg#: 40461

But rather than die quietly, this barren horror will attempt to feed off our progeny --- by sucking as much as it can from the "taxpayer," especially including the yet unborn.

Regards,
Journeyman

WOOPS, senior moment? THIS is the mother of all questions of the day!! Ignore the one further down -- please! Sorry, RossL.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: What is the ULTIMATE underlying -- perhaps you might call it the underlying's underlying -- that underlies ALL futures speculations, money money substitutes and "commodities?"

HINT: The answer isn't gold!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I think this may be a tough one?

"Full Faith and Credit.

I agree with tg , the posts are great short or long. "Brain dead puppets" pretty much sums it up in investment management nowadays. If the public was smart enough to know who is at the wheel of their 401ks and other retirement assets they would have a cow. (I edited this to stay close to your maximum length)

Perhaps the answer is...time?

To Zenidea,

Will be in Hong Kong only in first two weeks of Jan 01, see whether we can cross path.

Sorry, I have no links with Singapore, although got lots of friends there.

To All: I've been wondering for a while now why Greenspan keeps bringing up the 'productivity' angle in his speeches. Then the other day the penny dropped. Also why this 'hedonic indexing' is so attractive. As Easy Al has repeatedly shown us ( thru the 90's), even when increasing the discount percentage ( to manage the business cycle) with one hand he will happily open up the money spout with the other hand. Now let's say the productivity increase is 3 % . This allows Al to increase the money supply by 3 % over the period, and 'show ' NO inflation. They cancel out. It's like this: to the degree that Al can get the prod. number up (including 'hedonic' indexing), to that degree he can MASK the reported inflation number. It's like pouring gasoline on a fire, and saying: 'Look... no heat' . Of course, the inflation is there, and will show up in another form/later. What about it, does this fly - economically speaking? Or am I going of the rails here?

The other question I have is this: how much of an advantage does a nation's currency enjoy, if it is the 'reserve currency'?
Seems to me a couple of advantages:
- a lot of trading is done in the $, so traders and nations maintain a 'float' to conduct trade.
- a lot of commodities, including 'biggie' oil are traded in $$. This creates a serious demand for $$, by the buyers, and also the sellers, as this last group will not completely convert received $$ for other goodies/purposes.
- it allows the Fed to 'export' a part of it's money creation, which in turn will 'export' the resulting inflation to holders of those $$. This group, if they are foreigners, are outside the 'counting' loop, as far as official stats are concerned.

Comments anyone..?

It seems a bit rich ( pun intended) that one nation has held this advantage since 1944 - Bretton Woods. I suppose there was a lack of alternative candidates. Euro, please grow up quickly....

The Power and Ability of Governments to increase Taxation?

Posted at 06:46 a.m. PST; Tuesday, December 29, 1998
Japanese businessman mines gold from a mountain of old cellular phones


by Kevin Sullivan
The Washington Post
SAGAMIHARA, Japan - Saburo Masaoka is an urban miner, panning for gold in the ditches of the information superhighway.

At his factory here, Masaoka stood next to a stack of boxes filled with thousands of used cellular phones - black ones and red ones, some of them with pink Hello Kitty straps still attached - that were about to go through a saw-toothed crushing machine that would grind them into grit.

Masaoka ran his hands through them gleefully, like a man scooping jewels from a treasure chest, chuckling because he knows a little secret: There's gold in them thar cells.

Every cell phone contains a minute quantity of gold, which is used to fix silicon chips to the phone's computer circuit board. It's such a small amount that it takes 70,000 phones to yield a 2.2-pound bar of gold, which sells for about $10,000.


Masaoka's company, Yokohama Metal, struck a deal with Japan's major manufacturers to buy junked phones for about 8 cents each. Usually, they retail for anywhere from $25 to $400.

More than one of three Japanese citizens - 43 million - carry cell phones. When a cell phone rings in a crowded subway car or department store, nearly all check their pocket or purse.

Cell phones are as much fashion as function. Manufacturers here produce a new model every few weeks, on average. A phone that was state of the art in June is yesterday's news in July, simply because of a new speed-dial function or a new ringer that plays Beethoven's Ninth Symphony.

Japan's largest cell-phone manufacturer, NTT Mobile Communications Network, known as DoCoMo, has 17 models on the market, all introduced this year. One of the most recent, which came out last month, has an electronic pencil for the user to tap out e-mail messages on a digital keyboard in the phone's display screen.

Masaoka says phone trends change so fast that much of his raw material is brand new phones still in the box - overtaken by a sexier, younger model before they even leave the shelf - even in these times of recession.

"As a consumer myself, I like to get a new one very often - it's the Japanese way," he said.

Precious metals aren't limited to cell phones, so his company also extracts them from computer circuit boards removed from everything from personal computers to cars to automated teller machines.

Phones are a small part of the business so far, but they are an amazing growth market. In five years, Masaoka's company has turned more than 10 million discarded cell phones into gold bars, which are then sold on the commodities markets.

Here's how it works: Phones are crushed into millions of little pieces, then sent off to an incinerator. The resulting ash is heated, melted, bathed in acid and coaxed with chemicals so the gold and silver can be refined into pure form.

It takes anywhere from two to six months to produce a one-kilogram bar of gold. Last year, the company turned 3 million cell phones into 100 pounds of gold, a ton of silver and 66 pounds of palladium.

Total value: about $1 million, plus $37 million more from computers, cars and other high-tech trash that used to go to the landfill.

"Please don't teach others how to do this," Masaoka said, gently fingering gold and silver bars stacked like logs in his warehouse.

ANYONE WANT TO SEND ME 70,000 CELLPHONES!

@ Tree of Life, @ Belgium,

The logic of your posts only exceeds the clarity. Please continue.

@ Golden Truth,

Yes, B-B and B-C dead, recent report saw on-line revenues of ALL companies account for 2% of TOTAL revenue. It never had a chance. Witness Chapters today and Priceline as you point out. On-line commerce was never going to replace and/or compliment 'Old Economy' revenues. The Internet is a bust. The 'net' is not about making money, it's about unsolicited, fair access to the truth, it will make the planet a better place. No one CAN monopolize for enormus gain, that is the inherent beauty of it.

@ WOLAVKA,

Awesome point re: England; if they can't put a 'blanket' over this fuel matter, matters are more prevalent than they appear; it's like the passenger-side mirror of a car, OBJECTS ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR, until whack, you've backed into a $40,000 BMW with the 6 ft. 8 inch gorilla owner pumping coins into the parking meter. "Shit!", you say, "I'm toast!"

Since underlying was mentioned twice and underlies once, here are my guesses:
1...underlying..... The ability of the U.S. Federal Reserve System to use the fractional banking laws to lend money in unlimited quantities.
2....underlying....The ability of the U.S. Government to borrow over 6 trillion dollars from the U.S. Federal Reserve System,and keep turning the debt over so the loans are not defaulted on.
3.....underlies all.....The ability of the U.S. Government to make payments on the 6 trillion dollar debt through taxation of the gullable U.S. public, who honestly believe taxes of the general public are necessary.**

**Note...The USA operated quite well financially from before 1776 to 1913 with NO direct tax levy-ed on the people. Government revenue was raised through import/export tarriffs and duties.....in the 1960's in Japan revenue was raised by taxation of COMPANY profits, not from peoples paychecks. Also of note; Gold, Silver, Copper, and paper were used quite effective-ly as money during that time with only a slight variation(compared to today)in value.
Words from a famous USAGOLD poster....Gold get you some......Aristotle.

.....beesting.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a004d6e21a7.htm
Steve Allen, the versatile entertainer who created the "Tonight" show for NBC in
1953 and was widely regarded as a founding father of the late-night talk show,
died on Monday at the home of his son Bill in Los Angeles. He was 78 and lived in
Los Angeles.

No longer understand much Japanese as I was there when it was 360 Yen to the U.S. dollar. AAAhhhhhh the joys and pitfalls of paper money. I heard today a bowl of "Soba" is 1000 Yen Now.....U.S. $10.00. When I was there...1959...it was about $.28 U.S........100 Yen.

Sir Tree of Life, are any of the Japanese people you know investing in physical Gold????
Thanks for Answering in Advance......beesting.hachi-sasu.

Wolavka,

Don't think I don't love reading your futures-oriented posts here, but I have two questions re: $280 gold by Friday:

1.) What are you on?

2.) Where can I get some?

I hate to poop on the parade, but the election's not until Tues. 11/7. Nothing short of complete meltdown is going to move gold up prior to the election. We may well have that meltdown after Gore loses, and the festering mess is left in "W's" lap, but forgive my skepticism about it being allowed to happen while there's still a chance Camelot can be saved!

(Note: I'm long Dec. gold, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance....)

M

In our beautiful city there is a drug trafficking area of about 5 square blocks. Police don't arrest within that space. (...keeping some of the action out of 'more civilized' areas).

A news paper article told the story of a brown paper bag containing three 100 OZ gold bars. The finder will 'get the gold' if no one claims it.

Any crooks or law officers out there?

Questions:
How much thug-gold is out there?
and, what political effect does that have on the price of gold, if any?

Sorry, last post has missing word � A news paper article told the story of a **found** brown paper bag containing three 100 OZ gold bars.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/clawar103000.htmlI like to share the concept of "Faith & Hope" as it seems everyone is rather depressed concerning the recent performance of POG. This I draw from the Indonesian and Hong Kong experience during the dark days of the Asian Financial Crisis.

There is a real problem in today's world that we judge what is real by fixing our eyes on what's blinking on the Reuters screen. Today's Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate is around US$ 1= Rph 9000. On May 8th 1998, the exchange rate was about the same, so was the rate around October 8th 1998, but in between these dates, the low point for the Rupiah was Rph 15,200 to the US$ 1 on July, 12. There was a 40% loss and a 70% recovery all within two and a half months on each side.

Who sold at 15,200 and by how much, nobody knew but at the time, 15,200 was the "market". You see Indonesia is a rich country with huge resources, although the wealth distribution is terrible. The government did not borrow a lot of money, so the problem for Indonesia was not a debt problem but a currency issue only. I know of one case, at the height of the panic, one Indonesian business was trying to move some US dollars from the Indonesian branch of an American Bank to the NY branch to settle a trade bill. The American bank however insisted to charge him a 30% commission to move the money just within the different branches of the same bank. Why would an Indonesian businessman believe at the time what he saw on the Reuters was real. On the same token, what makes one believes the gold trades on NYMEX are really of real value. Dr. Harry Clawar has done some excellent work on the ridiculous loop sided dumping on NYMEX.

See http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/clawar103000.html
On the positive side of the crisis, in August 1998, when the barbarians were at the gates in Hong Kong shorting the Hong Kong dollar, stock market, index futures and everything in sight, the Hong Kong Government didn't just say "well, it's the market". They stood unmoved and bought every share that the speculators shorted. It took a lot of faith in knowing the truth but at the end of the day, the shorts have to cover from the HSI index level of 8,000 all the way up to 12,000. The Hong Kong Government also stopped their track in the futures derivatives by holding the futures higher the cash market. The futures position, which the Hong Kong Government bought, was only unwound recently at HSI index of around 16,000. The amount of firepower available to the Hedge Funds to attack Hong Kong at the time was around US$ 45 billion. Don't forget George Soros only harnessed US$ 16 billion to derail the Pound Sterling. The size of this type of money is not just speculative funds but sovereign artillery. Without faith, where do you think Hong Kong will be. Against the truth, guess where are the largest of the macro hedged funds � all gone.

Now, what if I tell you that at the low low levels of NYMEX gold, there are only trades among cronies. What if I tell you that the only reason for the trades are to create psychological markers to establish the low auction price for the real gold. What if I tell you that it is the physical that the shorts are trying to get at. What if I tell you that when the CB are out of their gold and someone has finally cornered the market and then there will be a collapse of fiat currencies.

Yes, the game is one sided and even if I know the truth, I don't have enough chips to play show hand. But one thing I know, without faith, I know I cannot even face myself in the mirror in the morning everyday. More importantly for me is Hebrew 11:1 " Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."

It is when all the evidence are against you that you need to exercise your faith. Otherwise, if you already see the results, that's a fact. If you can analyse it, then it is logic.

What would happen if a large percentage of all gold mining companies announced that they have decided to not sell any gold for one month?

Your post 11/02/00; 00.44.37MT - #40424 There may be a few mines able to produce gold at $46/oz, but this is not the total cost. Once you add up ore treatment, cost of financing and amortization, you end up with a $200/oz or more. Anyway the average price of gold production is, as of now, closer to $300/oz. So there is no way you can get gold at $50/oz short of killing all the mining industry.
As for the mining industry itself, it is in a very tricky situation. Personally I am against any kind of subsidy. Gold industry should be able to take care of itself. Problem are the CBs who are dumping (selling or leasing) their gold in unprecedented amount. From 1945 to 1971 CBs used to scoop gold surpluses then from 1971 to 1988 they stopped buying gold altogether. Since 1988 they are getting rid of it. Why? Good question. I suspect that the CBs are in trouble. They have to sell or lease gold to keep the dollar afloat. This is why they add 60% more gold to the annual gold production. No wonder gold seems to sink against the dollar. This situation can last only as long as CBs hold gold. Once they run out of the metal or if they decide they cannot dishoard it any longer, expect the price of gold to shoot to the stratosphere. And believe me, this time is not that far away. CBs are really running out of the metal.
Goldminers and CBs are now in a no win situation. And there is nothing we can do. Unless the USA government gets rid of the Fed and takes back the control of its money. But I don't think it possible in the short run. And anyway we are so far down the road to disaster that I don't see how it is possible to change tack. What I do, is keep physical, sit on it, no matter what and brace for the hard times.
As for the gold at $20/oz in 1849, what was the price of bread at that time? 1�? More or less? Today I can tell you bread's price is above $1. By this token you should be able to figure out what the gold price should fetch today.
Have a good night!

YELLER! (11/02/00; 22:06:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 40491)
GOLD and the price of DRUGS...

If the scenario generally agreed on in this forum comes about (ie: $30K/oz. gold and exhorbitant government taxes on gold trade), don't try to smuggle your gold across any borders to escape the taxes. You'll find yourself sitting in jail, with your gold, cash and car all confiscated. Sure..you might be able to PROVE that you're not a drug dealer, but then it'll take a lawyer, piles of paperwork and towing and storage fees to get your property back.

The DEA, ATF and Border Patrols are already hip to the drugs/gold trade. Anyone carrying gold (or even more cash than they "look" like they should be carrying) could get popped as a drug dealer. It seems that all kinds of alphabet agencies are hooked on supplimenting their office budgets with the proceeds of confiscated personal belongings. They confiscate everything connected with the SUSPECTED commission of a felony on the spot...at the time of arrest.
You may be found innocent...but they've still got your stuff till you pry it loose from their greedy paws. And that takes a pile of money and time.

This is America?
simply

With this latest DUI blast from the past against George Junior, the Democrats have succeeded in making me sick beyond recovery.

THE most corrupt government to hold office in American history is so desperate to hold onto its power that it has resorted to this type of proxy muckraking. The same party that constantly exhorts Americans to consider a man's accomplishments above and beyond character flaws (such as permanent hard-on-itis) is now resorting to the same tactics of character assassination. Not only with respect to George Junior but also with respect to Nader, who most recently was targeted by Democrat critics with innuendo suggesting he might be "gay." How ironic for Democrats to use a "gay" scare tactic against a candidate when that very same party supposedly champions gay rights?

Well, character IS important, and the Democrats exhibit one distinctive, chronic character trait: hypocrisy. The ultimate hypocrites in the world today are ALL Democrats.

Now, I am no fan of assholes who drive under the influence, but I am an even less a fan of desperate Democrat scamsters who will do anything it takes to win, no matter what light it casts them in. It is that very desperation to win at any cost that drove this government to create bubble stock markets and utilize proxies to step on gold and destroy an entire industry/financial asset....and to do so no matter what the ultimate consequences might be.

I am no fan of George Junior nor the Republicans, since they will let the corporate Mafia in this country get away with even more egregious crimes than the Democrats permitted.

That is why any sensible pragmatist will cast a vote against this two party corrupt status quo and vote for either Nader (who has proven his abilities to stand up to corporate fascism), or some other third party alternative. However, in my mind Nader represents the most organized effective third party option available.

Do NOT vote for Democrats nor Republicans, CHOOSE a third party alternative. It is about time, America is in desperate need of OTHER options besides Democrats or Republicans.

Thanks

F*

A friend emailed this to me. I think it makes a good point.

"Number of physicians in the U.S...............................700,000
Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year...............120,000
Accidental deaths per physician..................................0.171
Number of gun owners in the U.S............................80,000,000
Number of accidental gun deaths per year (all age groups).......1,500
Accidental deaths per gun owner.............................0.0000188
Therefore, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun
owners.
Taken from the Benton County News Tribune on the 17th of November 1999."

I guess I've got a good reason for fearing those yearly checkups! :)
simply

[B] BRIDGE UPDATE--PRECIOUS METALS: Rosbank ups gold, silver purchases
2-Nov-2000 23:30:21


Nov. 2--2329 GMT/1829 ET
.................................................................
TOP STORIES:

Russia's Rosbank ups gold, silver purchases from producers
Moscow--Nov. 2--Rosbank, one of the leading Russian banks, increased its
gold purchases from domestic producers by 21% on year to about 21 tonnes in
January-October. Silver purchases rose 670% on year to 108 tonnes, Deputy
Director of the bank's precious metal department Alexander Tikhomirov said
Thursday. He said the bank plans to conclude deals for 30-35 tonnes of gold in
2001 and export the larger part of it.
( Story .22546 )

FULL: Homestake Mining to reduce avg gold price to $300 per ounce
New York--Nov. 1--Homestake Mining Co. plans to reduce the average gold
price, which it uses to calculate proven and probable reserves from $325 to
$300 per ounce. Homestake said the change reflects a balance between recent
declines in the price of gold and the 25-year average price of $350 per ounce.
Homestake expects the changes to have no material impact on its currently
stated reserves.
( Story .23598 )

Homestake may accelerate closure mines for namesake gold mine
New York--Nov. 1--U.S. gold producer Homestake Mining Co. could accelerate
closure plans for its flagship Homestake gold mine in South Dakota if the
operation doesn't soon become more profitable, a company executive said
Wednesday. Homestake announced in September it would close operations in the
next 16 months because of high operating costs.
( Story .19463 )

.................................................................
OF INTEREST:

NY Precious Metals Review: Gold up but off dlr-driven 1-wk high
New York--Nov. 2--COMEX Dec gold futures settled up 50 cents at $265.9 per
ounce Thursday after an early climb to a one-week high of $268.2 on
short-covering driven by early strength in the euro versus the dollar. Traders
were largely in a wait-and-see mode ahead of Tuesday's double whammy of the
U.S. general election and the Bank of England gold auction.
( Story .2333 )

S Africa's platinum index, shares soar on fundamentals
Johannesburg--Nov. 2--South African Platinum shares and the Johannesburg
Stock Exchange's (JSE's) platinum index soared on strong volumes Thursday,
which analysts attributed to a combination of continued good fundamentals for
the sector and media reports out of the U.K. that Russian supplies of palladium
could be lower than originally estimated.
( Story .20197 )

Europe Precious Metals Review: Gold firmer on rise of euro
London--Nov. 2--Spot gold continued to head sideways on either side of U.S.
$265 per ounce in light conditions Thursday morning, although prices firmed
notably as the morning progressed on the back of the strengthening euro.
Palladium continued to look strong, although prices ran aground around $766
(bid) in the thin conditions, while platinum centered on $585.
( Story .2270 )

Romania's October forex reserves rise on month to $2.264 bln
Bucharest--Nov. 2--Romania's October forex reserves rose to U.S. $2.264
billion from $2.135 billion at the end of September and up from $1.818 billion
at the end of October 1999, the National Bank of Romania reported Thursday.
Gold reserves totaled $895.2 million, compared with $958.2 million at the end
of October 1999.
( Story .185 )

FULL: Canada's Miramar Q3 gold output 29,986 oz vs 30,060 oz
Toronto--Nov. 2--Canada's Miramar Mining Corp. on Thursday reported
third-quarter gold output of 29,986 ounces at cash costs of US$260 per ounce,
compared with 30,060 ounces of gold at cash costs of US$269 an ounce for the
same period a year ago. Due to a revised operating plan at its Giant mine,
Miramar expects 2000 gold production from its Yellowknife operations to be
about 120,000 ounces at cash costs of about US$265 per ounce.
( Story .16589 )

S Africa's platinum index, shares soar on fundamentals
Johannesburg--Nov. 2--South African Platinum shares and the Johannesburg
Stock Exchange's (JSE's) platinum index soared on strong volumes Wednesday,
which analysts attributed to a combination of continued good fundamentals for
the sector and media reports out of the U.K. that Russian supplies of palladium
could be lower than originally estimated.
( Story .17954 )

FULL: Canada's Glamis discovers new Nevada gold deposit
Toronto--Nov. 2--Canadian-traded Glamis Gold Ltd said Thursday it has
discovered a new gold deposit at its Marigold gold mine in Nevada. The company
reports the new total mineral resource as 1.45 million contained ounces of
gold. Further details are listed below.
( Story .18412 )

US DLA sold 500.839 oz palladium on Wednesday
New York--Nov. 2--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency sold a total of 500.839
troy ounces of palladium from its Web site sales Wednesday.
( Story .2354 )

Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold rises on firmer Aus dollar
Tokyo--Nov. 2--Spot gold prices rose during Asian trading Thursday on
expectations that the Australian dollar would emerge stronger against the U.S.
dollar, dealers said. But the rise in gold price is likely to be capped by
bearish market sentiments in the near term. As silver's fundamental remained
weak, stronger gold prices didn't much benefit silver prices Thursday, dealers
said.
( Story .2200 )

China state information center sees 2000 GDP up 8.3% on year
Beijing--Nov. 2--China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow
by an annual 8.3% this year on the back of a better-than-expected economic
performance through the first half, the Xinhua news agency said Thursday,
citing the State Development Planning Commission's (SDPC) information center.
China's official 2000 target, set at the beginning of the year, was for GDP
growth of around 7.0%.
( Story .10491 )

Japan small firms Jul-Sep DI at - 3.2, vs -2.8 in Apr-Jun
Tokyo--Nov. 2--The diffusion index (DI) for small companies--or the net
percentage of firms saying their business conditions have improved from a year
earlier--stood at minus -3.2 in July-September, compared with minus 2.8 in
April-June, a survey by the Japan Finance Corporation for Small Business found.
The data indicate the sentiment of small firms deteriorated in July-September
from April-June.
( Story .10751 )

EARNINGS WRAPUP: Solid Q3 gold company gains don't help shares
Toronto--Nov. 1--While all the senior Canadian gold producers posted
third-quarter earnings gains that met or exceeded analyst expectations,
investors continue to be indifferent when it comes to buying shares of these
companies. The gold sector will likely continue to be overlooked until
commodity prices improve and the U.S. dollar shows some signs of weakening.
( Story .1356 )

SNB GOLD: Swiss gold reserves down 86.4 mln Sfr to 37.433 bln
Zurich--Nov. 1--The Swiss National Bank sold 86.4 million Swiss francs'
worth of its gold reserves in the final 10 days of October, it announced
Wednesday. This is equivalent to around 6 tonnes, and brings the total of its
planned sale quota of 100 tonnes by end-March to around 20 tonnes.
( Story .12309 )

Silver consumption in photo industry to go up 4.5% in next 3 yrs
New York--Nov. 1--Silver consumption in the photography industry from the
present until 2002 will increase by about 4.5%, according to Peter Krause, vice
president, Imaging Technology/Markets, Inc. While demand in the graphic arts
industry will shrink, consumption will stay firm or increase in the area of
amateur/professional photography and x-ray imaging. The motion picture industry
has been least affected by digital imaging and will be last to convert, he
said.
( Story .18310 )

Let me start by saying to the few that asked for it: "you asked for it".

I combined appendix material with bits of the draft of the discussion from the body of the text and quickly reworded and updated some numbers.

The point to note is that the rate of price inflation is proportional to the growth in total spending relative to the growth of supply. Supply is still entirely American in services, and 45% in net goods at wholesale including foreign content of US goods by volume - and over 65-70%% at retail, where markup and transportation expenses lower the effective foreign content as measured in dollars.

This analysis looks at the most volatile portion of spending - that driven by decisions by the consumer over investment vs. spending.

Here it is:
=======================
There is an interesting point to make on the issue of price inflation as it is affected by dis-savings and by financial inflation (here all liquid financial assets are considered monetary in nature). Though there is an issue of monetary balances in a gold related or commodity money related system - which issue was heavily covered by Mises in one way and Friedman in another - it does not hold much water in pure credit money systems such as we have in the US. For most of the world, dollars come in as a result of exports or as a result of income resulting from investment made with the proceeds of exports. Therefore, the dollars abroad were backed by real goods and were a commodity money of sorts. As a result of this, the relationships established for financial balances has remained very much in effect.

For the US, however, the commodity money relationships relating to financial balances are not as significant as one might expect. The main reason for this is the fact of the impossibility of economically significant financial savings. Only investment is possible. Risk of default by non-performance or by dilution (price and monetary inflations) are a certainty and funds saved are immediately used to fund spending � as to whether it is consumer or business spending is a separate issue. To be sure, it is investment, a speculative activity, that constitutes modern monetary savings. Dollar accounts and equity shares are of the same nature as they both have momentary prices but no determinable long term value � or purchasing power. The US consumer and investor is capable of leverage such as no one outside the US would consider � but for middle class residents of hyperinflation prone countries.

In this odd world, a "cash balance" is not what people maintain. What they do is decide between net savings and net dis-savings depending on the opportunity costs of refraining from using income or borrowing for consumption (Itp, which is very stable at 1% to 1.5% in real terms), vs. foregoing a particular expectation of net return on investment (ROIx) and the cost of future interest payments (Ie � effective net nominal interest rate adjusted for tax benefits). The net change in the balance is manifested as either accumulation of new debt (Fd) being greater than accumulation of financial assets (in terms of financial flows, Fi), which is a net dis-savings (Fd-Fi>0); or investing more than borrowing, which is a net savings (Fi-Fd>0). The expected return on investment on financial assets is the most substantial element of the balance. More so than interest rates charged on debt. Particularly significant is the expected real rate of return (adjusted for price inflation expected, fx). It is more substantial in effect than changes in expected net income (CI) including the cost of debt service and after tax returns on investment on ones portfolio. The main portion of the effect stems from that part of consumption that consumers consider "essential" and would never consider reducing substantially unless they were out of money, had no income, and no credit � utilities, reasonable nutrition, basic housing, clothing � all in proportion to what they are accustomed to, which ranges from over 60% of CI for lower income households, to 40% for very high income households. As an average, I take 50% of CI.

Itp = opportunity cost of consumption = opportunity cost of foregoing consumption =
=loss of return on investment of future income committed to new interest payments + lost ROIx on uninvested income=
=Fd*(ROIx +Ie)/CI + (1 � Fi/CI �0.5)*ROIx
=[(Fd � Fi)/CI + 0.5] * ROIx + Fd * Ie /CI �fx

Using various ranges of figures, one sees that the net savings relative to income, (Fi � Fd)/CI, are most highly correlated to ROIx. Since it is obvious that a change in expectations from very high to very low rates of return on financial (paper) investment would cause a substantial selling off of assets, the question arises as to where the 0 net savings occurs
At various levels of fx and Ie, the level of ROIx required for Fd-Fi = 0 are as follows
Ie=9%, fx=7.5%, ROIx = 16%, nominal 8.5% real
9%, 3.5%, ROIx = 10%, Real 6.5%
6%, 7.5%, ROIx = 15%, Real 7.5% (The case of negative "real" interest rates)
6%, 3.5%, ROIx = 9.5%, Real 6%
This is consistent with all the old saws of investment � that of higher real returns are needed to attract investment when price inflation is high � and that real investment returns need not be as high if prevalent "real" interest rates are lower.

BTW, 6% is the effective average after tax interest rate today for the average "refinanced" consumer (78% mortgage debt, vs. 66% in 1995), this is down from a peak over 6.7%.

Let us now change the analysis to what happens when nominal rates of return remain the same, but price inflation expectations go from 3.5% to 5% and to 7.5% , and "real" interest rates remain steady at 2.5%: 6%, 7.5%, 10%:
Ie=6.%, fx=3.5%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = 6.5%
Ie=7.5%, fx=6%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = -7% (dis-savings � consumers spend a disproportionate portion of their income through leverage)
Ie=10%, fx=7.5%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = -12%
In "real" terms, as proportions of income, assuming 1% real income growth, we have the same figures as +6.2%, -6.5%, -11%.

In 1998, prior to the Russian default, return on assets for the SP500 was over 13%, and corporate bond rates were just under 7% for prime rated corporations, and just over 8% for your average junk bond. Mortgage rates were at 7%, (yes, we refinanced�). Corporate leverage was still limited, though on the high side. Soon corporations leveraged to 79% of equity, providing returns on equity of 23 at the time. Though much of the borrowing was used to buy back shares, the investment that was done resulted in an increase of returns on equity to 24.6 in late 99 (data for SP500). With a return such as this, investment flows were justifiably high.
With ROIx=23%, Ie=7%, fx=3%, (Fi-Fd)/CI was about 20%

With official price inflation at under 3% and prime corporate interest rates and mortgages at 8% and 8.5%, junk had already suffered a first hit along with treasuries and mortgage backeds.

At 99's end and ROIx=24.6, we had a driver for a 21% net investment flow.
Today, with Mortgages at 7.7%, ROIx as the SP 500 return on equity has fallen to 22 (so far) and price inflation has risen to 3.5% officially. The appropriate level of net investment flow would be 18% of income (remember that this includes investment returns)

If the market was "smarter" than official inflation statistics and my calculated implied inflation rate (see old post on Black Scholes and Originary Interest) then fx would have been about 5.8% in early 98, 7.7% in end 99, and about 6.8% today, giving net investment of 10% of income in early 98, under 11% in end 99, and 10.5% today. However, aside from these numbers being more in line with reality, we should view the actual progression of improving and declining ROE in order to divine the ROIx investors should have in mind today.

Quarterly progression of SP500 returns on equity (ROE) and growth of ROE, below show that a steady decline in ROI should have become expected as early as the end of Q2 00, having shown a second straight quarter of declines.
S-98, D-98, M-99, J-99, S-99, D-99, M-00, J-00, S-00
21.3, 22.7,23.3, 23.2, 22, 24, 24.6, 23.5, 22.8, 22
NA, 7%, 3%,0%,-5%, 9%, 3%, -4%, -3%, -4%

Even a na�ve investor would have seen the 9% year over year decline in ROE values, and assumed the same for next year, at ROE 20 and would, today, respond to something like it, at net investment of 8% of expected income. If ROE declines further, and the stock market remains the target of investor's flows, then the question arises as to what level would bring about a drop in flows (outside of the sale of ESOP stock). An expectation of 15% ROIx would create a net disinvestment by the public. The result would be net sales of stock. Fixed income gives, at best, the effective after tax interest rate to the investor. Which at current price inflationary expectations (as expressed in treasury yields � not government statistics), the rate of disinvestment would be about 20% of income, enough to stoke any price inflation one might imagine.

As far as the structure of income of the US household, there is a large scale component of bonds, dollar accounts and share holdings, particularly at the top 1% of households.
Expected income is structured as:
CI=Expected wage and profit of private business + fixed income + expected equity profit � debt service
WP= expected wage and profit from business after tax
fixed income = di*PD*Ic
PD= fixed income assets = account Balance + bond portfolio
di= discount of income by rate of taxation
Ic= Interest rate less net of default and recovery (usually better than Ie)
equity profit= di*Dividends +dc*Potential capital gain expected
dc= discount of capital gain by rate of taxation
Dividends= PE*Id
Equity portfolio=PE
Id= dividend rate, about 1.9%
Expected capital gain = PE* CGEx
CGEx= Return expected on equity portfolio as capital gain
debt service= Dh*Ie
Dh= Outstanding household debt
Expected wage includes employee stock option plan and stock ownership plan appreciation and repricing, which is not included in the national income statistics, but is a major source of income at the top of the US economic ladder.

Latest data from the Fed Z1 outstandings report (households):
Equity portfolio=PE=$10 T directly owned and through mutual funds
Fixed income portfolio=PD=$8 T directly owned and through mutual funds (people do not have access to pension programs)
Debt= $7 T (78% of it residential, still over 55% equity)
Wage and profit from private business after tax = $6 T, growing at 5%
ESOP cumulative appreciation, granting, repricing and vesting as portion of equity portfolio (rather than wage, which is what it is), just that it has the full income tax load on it instead of capital gains rates, but only 1/3-1/2 of it is liquid and vested and is exercised= 18% (10% of total market, of which 15% is foreign owned and pension funds/retirement systems own the rest - about 26%).

So
CI=WP + di*PD*Ic + ((dc +di*0.18 )*CDEx + di*Ic) *PE - Dh*Ie
CI=6 + 0.6*8*8% + ((0.8 + 0.6*0.18)*CDEx + 0.6*1.8%)*10 � 7 * 8%
in Trillions of dollars per year
CI= 6.38 � 0.56 + 0.11 + 9.08*CDEx
At 20% capital gain on equities (CDEx) CI is 7.75
With 4% of expected household income from debt securities, and a whopping 20% from appreciation expected on equities. This figure would have worried Federal reserve price watchers as they would have expected this capital gain to have been spent in some part. Dishoarding of large profit gains, however, is historically known as 4-5%, paltry even when considering a 2-2.4 trillion dollar profit, where this sum would come out to some $120 billion, or 1% of the nominal GDP.
Households owe 9% of income in interest (tax adjusted).
Using the 26% expected return on equities, the American consumer would not be spending the expected unrealized gain in stocks. They would be holding it in their accounts for the prospect of a further gain. The spending of the 26% capital gain would only be considered if it were expected to fall in the future. Thereby eliminating the purpose of the investment. Spending of the expected income of $7.9 trillion would be limited to the portion consumers do not want to invest. The current flow of funds into mutual funds indicates a continued change in relative preference towards money market funds, rather than equities, which are now still getting a larger portion of the fund flows. Meanwhile, banks are packaging their loans into leveraged instruments through finance companies, which sell their commercial paper to the money market funds.
Though consumers are getting a $2 trillion boost from direct ownership of equities and they have some $0.4 after tax coming from stock options and employee stock ownership programs, their preference of spending vs. investing (reflected in Fi-Fd) would be to invest 15% of income, or half of the $2 trillion "bonanza" ($2.4 trillion including employee equity related programs). This would leave spending at 85% of income, at about $6.8 trillion.
Had the expectation of returns dropped to the 16% level pointed out above for 0 investment flow net of new debt, then though income would have fallen to $6.9-7 trillion, all of it would have been spent. Though expected income would have fallen, the portion of it that is spent would have risen to 100%, and thus would actually be 4% HIGHER.

The Fed's targeting of the "wealth effect" as a means to reduce consumer purchases pressuring prices was counter productive because raising short term rates reduced corporate profitability, and caused the "sink" into which people dumped their income to provide lower returns, and thus become a target for liquidation. Furthermore, the Fed's action had raised the cost of investment in future production and in inventory, thereby reducing the future availability of consumer items and raising market sensitivity to supply shortages and demand surges in the future 1-2 years out. This means just that any sharp change in consumer intentions towards greater spending, would result in a greater rise in prices.

There is a limit to the ability of consumers to borrow. That limit has not been approached. With an expected return of 16%, at the level of 0 investment net of new debt, the consumer would have had an increase of debt of about 12% (probably 25% in revolving debt and 10% in mortgages) if the whole of the 16% return were to remain in its investment portfolio. However, the rise in consumer purchases would raise prices (at this point the rise would be parallel in both consumer and producer goods) and urge the consumers, as suppliers of producer goods (labor) to demand a higher compensation � higher wages. Considering the market's tightness in labor and some materials, the wage demands are likely to be met under these "expansionary conditions". Besides this, the increased debt would only increase consumer's debt service costs by some $0.11 trillion, and result in nothing much in the way of a cash drain so long as securities and account balances are not falling more quickly than debt is rising.

Had expected returns in equities been reduced to those of debt and cash investments, then the consumer preference would have fallen to Fi-Fd of about 17% of income, which would now fall to $6.5 trillion (when putting back stock option repricings to compensate for poor stock performance), and consumer borrowing and selling of equity portfolios would be substantial. Total spending predicted would be in the range of $7.5-7.6 trillion (assuming lenders would actually be willing to increase consumer lending without increasing interest rates to both induce borrowers to borrow less, and "savers" to deposit more funds). This would reduce future income by about $0.1 trillion per year, but would also come back in increased wages due to acceleration in price rises. Even if interest rates were to rise on consumer loans, the rise in prices would tend to eliminate much of the higher rate's effects, and induce even greater discount by the consumer on expected returns.

In fact, in order to retain price inflation at the expected levels that are now current (about 6.5-7% - NOT the official 3.5% by the CPI), it would be necessary to have after tax interest rates (housing interest tax credit lowers the effective rate by � to � of the nominal amount) go to 10% and short term money funds and CDs need to bear 11-12% interest � which at even 7% price inflation would bring investment to a quick stop at such a high "real" rate, and lower the numbers of consumers through the layoffs of a deep recession. At these consumer interest rates, businesses would pay 14-15%, which is well outside anything they can afford (current return on assets is only 15% for the SP500).
=========================

I'll bite, without reading above your post just yet.

Ultimate derivative?

Time.

Miscalculated by all of us. Sold short by most. Sold too cheaply by parents of small children.

The gift of time. Abused by me regularly, but I'm reforming as of "Right Now." To-night, for sure.

If we really, really applied Black & Scholes (somehow, intuitively) to the rest of our lives, well, some of us wouldn't be here so much, trying to "make" more abstract money. (Admit it. Mixture of motives, anyway.) We'd be enjoying & savoring the real things. Gardening, creative cooking, fine wine, getting the lawnmower put back together -- the rest of what you've put off. The kind of stuff a good cancer scare (or a friend's) makes you appreciate.

I drift off from that, come back, drift, return, etc etc. Learning. Forgetting. What I didn't know last year, I think I've got a grasp on now. Maybe. We'll see.

I had some quiet time to start re-reading the Gold Trail tonight. The sweep of it. It grows on you, understand more each time. Got me in that mood.

Could we all arrange to be together on the Forum for some real-time gathering, such as New Year's Eve?

Say, just check in during a one-hour duration, and just say hello. "Chat" together as we occasionally find ourselves doing at moments in the day, but for a planned period of time.

It might be too much for the server to take (?), all the "Refresh"es.

Our international friends might suggest the best hours when they'd be awake.

Alternative suggestions?View Yesterday's Discussion.

If I understand your question, it is easy.
Interest/lease rates, or whatever you want to call it.
What's my prize?

For the sake of convenience to forum readers who may want to discuss this, I am reposting it on today's forum page, my apologies to our host for taking up so much bandwidth on such esoterica.

Let me start by saying to the few that asked for it: "you asked for it".

I combined appendix material with bits of the draft of the discussion from the body of the text and quickly reworded and updated some numbers.

The point to note is that the rate of price inflation is proportional to the growth in total spending relative to the growth of supply. Supply is still entirely American in services, and 45% in net goods at wholesale including foreign content of US goods by volume - and over 65-70%% at retail, where markup and transportation expenses lower the effective foreign content as measured in dollars.

This analysis looks at the most volatile portion of spending - that driven by decisions by the consumer over investment vs. spending.

Here it is:
=======================
There is an interesting point to make on the issue of price inflation as it is affected by dis-savings and by financial inflation (here all liquid financial assets are considered monetary in nature). Though there is an issue of monetary balances in a gold related or commodity money related system - which issue was heavily covered by Mises in one way and Friedman in another - it does not hold much water in pure credit money systems such as we have in the US. For most of the world, dollars come in as a result of exports or as a result of income resulting from investment made with the proceeds of exports. Therefore, the dollars abroad were backed by real goods and were a commodity money of sorts. As a result of this, the relationships established for financial balances has remained very much in effect.

For the US, however, the commodity money relationships relating to financial balances are not as significant as one might expect. The main reason for this is the fact of the impossibility of economically significant financial savings. Only investment is possible. Risk of default by non-performance or by dilution (price and monetary inflations) are a certainty and funds saved are immediately used to fund spending � as to whether it is consumer or business spending is a separate issue. To be sure, it is investment, a speculative activity, that constitutes modern monetary savings. Dollar accounts and equity shares are of the same nature as they both have momentary prices but no determinable long term value � or purchasing power. The US consumer and investor is capable of leverage such as no one outside the US would consider � but for middle class residents of hyperinflation prone countries.

In this odd world, a "cash balance" is not what people maintain. What they do is decide between net savings and net dis-savings depending on the opportunity costs of refraining from using income or borrowing for consumption (Itp, which is very stable at 1% to 1.5% in real terms), vs. foregoing a particular expectation of net return on investment (ROIx) and the cost of future interest payments (Ie � effective net nominal interest rate adjusted for tax benefits). The net change in the balance is manifested as either accumulation of new debt (Fd) being greater than accumulation of financial assets (in terms of financial flows, Fi), which is a net dis-savings (Fd-Fi>0); or investing more than borrowing, which is a net savings (Fi-Fd>0). The expected return on investment on financial assets is the most substantial element of the balance. More so than interest rates charged on debt. Particularly significant is the expected real rate of return (adjusted for price inflation expected, fx). It is more substantial in effect than changes in expected net income (CI) including the cost of debt service and after tax returns on investment on ones portfolio. The main portion of the effect stems from that part of consumption that consumers consider "essential" and would never consider reducing substantially unless they were out of money, had no income, and no credit � utilities, reasonable nutrition, basic housing, clothing � all in proportion to what they are accustomed to, which ranges from over 60% of CI for lower income households, to 40% for very high income households. As an average, I take 50% of CI.

Itp = opportunity cost of consumption = opportunity cost of foregoing consumption =
=loss of return on investment of future income committed to new interest payments + lost ROIx on uninvested income=
=Fd*(ROIx +Ie)/CI + (1 � Fi/CI �0.5)*ROIx
=[(Fd � Fi)/CI + 0.5] * ROIx + Fd * Ie /CI �fx

Using various ranges of figures, one sees that the net savings relative to income, (Fi � Fd)/CI, are most highly correlated to ROIx. Since it is obvious that a change in expectations from very high to very low rates of return on financial (paper) investment would cause a substantial selling off of assets, the question arises as to where the 0 net savings occurs
At various levels of fx and Ie, the level of ROIx required for Fd-Fi = 0 are as follows
Ie=9%, fx=7.5%, ROIx = 16%, nominal 8.5% real
9%, 3.5%, ROIx = 10%, Real 6.5%
6%, 7.5%, ROIx = 15%, Real 7.5% (The case of negative "real" interest rates)
6%, 3.5%, ROIx = 9.5%, Real 6%
This is consistent with all the old saws of investment � that of higher real returns are needed to attract investment when price inflation is high � and that real investment returns need not be as high if prevalent "real" interest rates are lower.

BTW, 6% is the effective average after tax interest rate today for the average "refinanced" consumer (78% mortgage debt, vs. 66% in 1995), this is down from a peak over 6.7%.

Let us now change the analysis to what happens when nominal rates of return remain the same, but price inflation expectations go from 3.5% to 5% and to 7.5% , and "real" interest rates remain steady at 2.5%: 6%, 7.5%, 10%:
Ie=6.%, fx=3.5%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = 6.5%
Ie=7.5%, fx=6%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = -7% (dis-savings � consumers spend a disproportionate portion of their income through leverage)
Ie=10%, fx=7.5%, ROI=11%, (Fi � Fd)/CI = -12%
In "real" terms, as proportions of income, assuming 1% real income growth, we have the same figures as +6.2%, -6.5%, -11%.

In 1998, prior to the Russian default, return on assets for the SP500 was over 13%, and corporate bond rates were just under 7% for prime rated corporations, and just over 8% for your average junk bond. Mortgage rates were at 7%, (yes, we refinanced�). Corporate leverage was still limited, though on the high side. Soon corporations leveraged to 79% of equity, providing returns on equity of 23 at the time. Though much of the borrowing was used to buy back shares, the investment that was done resulted in an increase of returns on equity to 24.6 in late 99 (data for SP500). With a return such as this, investment flows were justifiably high.
With ROIx=23%, Ie=7%, fx=3%, (Fi-Fd)/CI was about 20%

With official price inflation at under 3% and prime corporate interest rates and mortgages at 8% and 8.5%, junk had already suffered a first hit along with treasuries and mortgage backeds.

At 99's end and ROIx=24.6, we had a driver for a 21% net investment flow.
Today, with Mortgages at 7.7%, ROIx as the SP 500 return on equity has fallen to 22 (so far) and price inflation has risen to 3.5% officially. The appropriate level of net investment flow would be 18% of income (remember that this includes investment returns)

If the market was "smarter" than official inflation statistics and my calculated implied inflation rate (see old post on Black Scholes and Originary Interest) then fx would have been about 5.8% in early 98, 7.7% in end 99, and about 6.8% today, giving net investment of 10% of income in early 98, under 11% in end 99, and 10.5% today. However, aside from these numbers being more in line with reality, we should view the actual progression of improving and declining ROE in order to divine the ROIx investors should have in mind today.

Quarterly progression of SP500 returns on equity (ROE) and growth of ROE, below show that a steady decline in ROI should have become expected as early as the end of Q2 00, having shown a second straight quarter of declines.
S-98, D-98, M-99, J-99, S-99, D-99, M-00, J-00, S-00
21.3, 22.7,23.3, 23.2, 22, 24, 24.6, 23.5, 22.8, 22
NA, 7%, 3%,0%,-5%, 9%, 3%, -4%, -3%, -4%

Even a na�ve investor would have seen the 9% year over year decline in ROE values, and assumed the same for next year, at ROE 20 and would, today, respond to something like it, at net investment of 8% of expected income. If ROE declines further, and the stock market remains the target of investor's flows, then the question arises as to what level would bring about a drop in flows (outside of the sale of ESOP stock). An expectation of 15% ROIx would create a net disinvestment by the public. The result would be net sales of stock. Fixed income gives, at best, the effective after tax interest rate to the investor. Which at current price inflationary expectations (as expressed in treasury yields � not government statistics), the rate of disinvestment would be about 20% of income, enough to stoke any price inflation one might imagine.

As far as the structure of income of the US household, there is a large scale component of bonds, dollar accounts and share holdings, particularly at the top 1% of households.
Expected income is structured as:
CI=Expected wage and profit of private business + fixed income + expected equity profit � debt service
WP= expected wage and profit from business after tax
fixed income = di*PD*Ic
PD= fixed income assets = account Balance + bond portfolio
di= discount of income by rate of taxation
Ic= Interest rate less net of default and recovery (usually better than Ie)
equity profit= di*Dividends +dc*Potential capital gain expected
dc= discount of capital gain by rate of taxation
Dividends= PE*Id
Equity portfolio=PE
Id= dividend rate, about 1.9%
Expected capital gain = PE* CGEx
CGEx= Return expected on equity portfolio as capital gain
debt service= Dh*Ie
Dh= Outstanding household debt
Expected wage includes employee stock option plan and stock ownership plan appreciation and repricing, which is not included in the national income statistics, but is a major source of income at the top of the US economic ladder.

Latest data from the Fed Z1 outstandings report (households):
Equity portfolio=PE=$10 T directly owned and through mutual funds
Fixed income portfolio=PD=$8 T directly owned and through mutual funds (people do not have access to pension programs)
Debt= $7 T (78% of it residential, still over 55% equity)
Wage and profit from private business after tax = $6 T, growing at 5%
ESOP cumulative appreciation, granting, repricing and vesting as portion of equity portfolio (rather than wage, which is what it is), just that it has the full income tax load on it instead of capital gains rates, but only 1/3-1/2 of it is liquid and vested and is exercised= 18% (10% of total market, of which 15% is foreign owned and pension funds/retirement systems own the rest - about 26%).

So
CI=WP + di*PD*Ic + ((dc +di*0.18 )*CDEx + di*Ic) *PE - Dh*Ie
CI=6 + 0.6*8*8% + ((0.8 + 0.6*0.18)*CDEx + 0.6*1.8%)*10 � 7 * 8%
in Trillions of dollars per year
CI= 6.38 � 0.56 + 0.11 + 9.08*CDEx
At 20% capital gain on equities (CDEx) CI is 7.75
With 4% of expected household income from debt securities, and a whopping 20% from appreciation expected on equities. This figure would have worried Federal reserve price watchers as they would have expected this capital gain to have been spent in some part. Dishoarding of large profit gains, however, is historically known as 4-5%, paltry even when considering a 2-2.4 trillion dollar profit, where this sum would come out to some $120 billion, or 1% of the nominal GDP.
Households owe 9% of income in interest (tax adjusted).
Using the 26% expected return on equities, the American consumer would not be spending the expected unrealized gain in stocks. They would be holding it in their accounts for the prospect of a further gain. The spending of the 26% capital gain would only be considered if it were expected to fall in the future. Thereby eliminating the purpose of the investment. Spending of the expected income of $7.9 trillion would be limited to the portion consumers do not want to invest. The current flow of funds into mutual funds indicates a continued change in relative preference towards money market funds, rather than equities, which are now still getting a larger portion of the fund flows. Meanwhile, banks are packaging their loans into leveraged instruments through finance companies, which sell their commercial paper to the money market funds.
Though consumers are getting a $2 trillion boost from direct ownership of equities and they have some $0.4 after tax coming from stock options and employee stock ownership programs, their preference of spending vs. investing (reflected in Fi-Fd) would be to invest 15% of income, or half of the $2 trillion "bonanza" ($2.4 trillion including employee equity related programs). This would leave spending at 85% of income, at about $6.8 trillion.
Had the expectation of returns dropped to the 16% level pointed out above for 0 investment flow net of new debt, then though income would have fallen to $6.9-7 trillion, all of it would have been spent. Though expected income would have fallen, the portion of it that is spent would have risen to 100%, and thus would actually be 4% HIGHER.

The Fed's targeting of the "wealth effect" as a means to reduce consumer purchases pressuring prices was counter productive because raising short term rates reduced corporate profitability, and caused the "sink" into which people dumped their income to provide lower returns, and thus become a target for liquidation. Furthermore, the Fed's action had raised the cost of investment in future production and in inventory, thereby reducing the future availability of consumer items and raising market sensitivity to supply shortages and demand surges in the future 1-2 years out. This means just that any sharp change in consumer intentions towards greater spending, would result in a greater rise in prices.

There is a limit to the ability of consumers to borrow. That limit has not been approached. With an expected return of 16%, at the level of 0 investment net of new debt, the consumer would have had an increase of debt of about 12% (probably 25% in revolving debt and 10% in mortgages) if the whole of the 16% return were to remain in its investment portfolio. However, the rise in consumer purchases would raise prices (at this point the rise would be parallel in both consumer and producer goods) and urge the consumers, as suppliers of producer goods (labor) to demand a higher compensation � higher wages. Considering the market's tightness in labor and some materials, the wage demands are likely to be met under these "expansionary conditions". Besides this, the increased debt would only increase consumer's debt service costs by some $0.11 trillion, and result in nothing much in the way of a cash drain so long as securities and account balances are not falling more quickly than debt is rising.

Had expected returns in equities been reduced to those of debt and cash investments, then the consumer preference would have fallen to Fi-Fd of about 17% of income, which would now fall to $6.5 trillion (when putting back stock option repricings to compensate for poor stock performance), and consumer borrowing and selling of equity portfolios would be substantial. Total spending predicted would be in the range of $7.5-7.6 trillion (assuming lenders would actually be willing to increase consumer lending without increasing interest rates to both induce borrowers to borrow less, and "savers" to deposit more funds). This would reduce future income by about $0.1 trillion per year, but would also come back in increased wages due to acceleration in price rises. Even if interest rates were to rise on consumer loans, the rise in prices would tend to eliminate much of the higher rate's effects, and induce even greater discount by the consumer on expected returns.

In fact, in order to retain price inflation at the expected levels that are now current (about 6.5-7% - NOT the official 3.5% by the CPI), it would be necessary to have after tax interest rates (housing interest tax credit lowers the effective rate by � to � of the nominal amount) go to 10% and short term money funds and CDs need to bear 11-12% interest � which at even 7% price inflation would bring investment to a quick stop at such a high "real" rate, and lower the numbers of consumers through the layoffs of a deep recession. At these consumer interest rates, businesses would pay 14-15%, which is well outside anything they can afford (current return on assets is only 15% for the SP500).
=========================

A couple of days ago, Trail Guide mentioned his view that perhaps gold mine investment would consist of finding gold reserves, defining them and then sitting on them. That is very close to the reality of the 70s, and the reality of the future in gold.

In the 70s, gold production did not increase despite a 20 fold increase in gold prices from the decade's open till its close.

The reason is "low grading". Low grading is the opposite of the current practice of "high grading". Where high grading consists of the mining and processing of the best ore in a mine, low grading consists of mining and processing the worst ore available. This is the result of the economics of ore mining and processing and the structure of ore bodies which can be divided (somewhat arbitrarily) into high and low grades. The ore body would normally have a very thin vein of highly concentrated gold, surrounded by a very large body of low quality ore. I like to take the average as about 80% of the gold being contained in the low grade ore, and 20% in the high grade ore. The relationship of gold concentrations between the high and low grade ores is about 20, though it varies widely � from about 5 to 50. Common ranges are 10 to 30.

The costs of the mining and processing operation are entirely related to the amount of ore processed, with no relation to the amount of gold produced, while the revenue is entirely dependent on the amount of gold produced, and is not affected by the amount of ore.

Thus, the long term operation of a gold mine produces a stream of income that is the difference between the revenue produced by gold extracted, less the cost of mining and processing the ore. The miner will constantly adjust the mix of high and low grade ore so that the present value of the income stream is maximized. That is, the income is discounted by the cost of funds (interest). At low gold prices, the miner digs up as little ore as possible, and produces as much gold as possible. That means that he is taking high grade ore out of the mine. The miner is doing this in order to maximize the present value of the mine at the prices he expects. This means that the lower the price, the shorter the life of the mine and the greater the gold production. Once the high grade ore is depleted, the mine is not economical at the current price. Since the costs are entirely related to the ore quantities to be processed, once a mine closes because of depletion of the high grade ore, it is only at a price that is 10 to 50 times greater that it will reopen, depending on the relative concentration of gold in the low and high grade ore.

As prices go up, the miner tends to increase the portions of low grade ore in the mined and processed mix and the life of the mine is increased. New capital investment can increase the production rate of the mine, but will reduce its lifespan. New investment only occurs when the mine with the new capacity has a higher present value relative to maintenance of current capacity + capital investment. The funny thing is that the rate of discount (interest rate) increases the relative attractiveness of capital investment vs. leaving current capacity as is. If interest rates are rising, but gold prices remain the same, then the miner will high grade and shorten the mine's life. If gold prices increase while interest rates remain the same, then the miner will low grade and increase mine life. If both interest rates and gold prices are growing, then the miner will both increase capital investment to decrease mine life and extend the mine life through low grading.

After decades of unrealistically low gold prices, the mining industry in 1971 was "mined out". High grade ores were depleted and mines were closing. The growth of both prices and interest rates through the 70s produced the expected behavior as the miners lowered the grade they were processing to produce much less gold and were spending on exploration and new capacity. Exploration and new capacity (much of it actually the reopening of formerly marginal mines that have closed) was just sufficient to increase the amount produced by the amount by which low grading reduced supply throughout the 70s.

The same process should be expected in the future as gold prices finally gets loose of the banking and government imposed price range. Already, prices have been low for so long that high grading has finally depleted the core ores of many large and important gold mines, not the least of which is the Homestake mine. The reduction of supply by mine closures has finally managed to overcome the increase in supply caused by high grading. This while the price has remained low (especially in inflation adjusted terms) and consumer demand has increased dramatically to the point of drawing on long term inventories of the bullion banking system (including CBs and private holders) at record rates. We are now at the point where slight drops in price cause more supply to disappear because of mine closures than is increased from high grading. Where the average mine in existence has been designed for prices around $400/oz. the low prices of the last 3 years has brought us to the point of 50%; that point where half the mining capacity has become marginal in dollar terms. Within another 3 years, given current prices, that 1/2 will close down and bring capacity down to below 1500 tonnes per year, and increase the deficit to triple its current level.

The price behavior we expect should bring the current mining practice to a complete swing towards low grading as prices skyrocket. A 20 fold price increase would probably result in a reduction in production of some 65%-70%. It would also result in very wide scale exploration and mine reopening activity that will only result in fresh gold coming to market 2 years down the road for reopened mines, and 5 to 10 years later for current exploratory properties. Needless to say, prices will accelerate upwards as production responds inversely to price in the short run.


One thing that should be noted about hedging is that it does not actually increase the prices realized on gold sold forward, because the interest rates are lower than the interest costs used by a miner for discount in optimizing his mine production. The main effect of hedging done without a margin posting requirement (as Barrick expects), is that of stabilization of the mine operation by eliminating short term effects of price swings on mining operations by removing the exposure to these price swings. The mine operations don't have to undergo swings from mining and processing low and high grade ores in widely differing proportions which leaves piles of unprocessed low grade ores during down swings in price and on upswings forces the miner to widen prior ore body edges (where the lowest grade ore is) � meaning that the miner had to go back and mine at the same spot twice - that were left behind during the preceding downswing (in which low grade ore was not mined).

For a well coordinated and flexible miner with excellent operations, such as Harmony and Gold Fields hedging does not mean that much because they are sophisticated enough to cope with the operational problems. For others, hedging means the difference between running like headless chickens and operating in well ordered fashion with near static mining plans.

Granted as soon as certain letters or words hit the net , you can bet the legal scum is hot on the trail to monitor what is going on. Well here are the facts jack:

The scum at the CFTC and the NFA, care not what happens to anyone outside their network.

Gata or anyone else who complains face the same bull shit as if you try to deal with the corrupt screws at IRS.

Facts are they all thrive on negative behavior and destruction, Cause you undo hardships and expense to promote their existance.

Notice how the derivatives exchanges are now going public and looking for investors , suckers to buy into their lost cause sinking ships.

Smart money has already gone outside u.s.

The gold industry is being forced into bankruptcy of specific companies to allow a select certain few to remain , when and if the cftc/nfa decide thru its legal scum to lift this mkt.

Who the hell investigates them? Your stupid congressman? Your Government?
All this writing about certain derivatives imbalances and admission by greenspan who doesn't even know what a dollar is , because the idiots made it a fern and are dollar, he needs to hold the cftc/nfa responsible.

So now alittle gas escapes the bubble of u.s. constipation, gold is allow to rise alittle and we are vindicated for a short time. Bull shit, I say someone go after those in charge and not only punish them but inforce it upon their children for term life and set an example that this type of irresponsible damage to the foundation of a nation not go without severe implications.

We are talking about our childrens children here. Not some one generation I made it, I'm old , I die and your left with the mess, nixon shit:

Govt knows what it is doing: It feeds on negative behavior to enhance the lawyers. What and who are the cftc/nfa? Nothing more than lawyers who need to be punished for allowing greenspan to allow a country to imbalance the world.
Proud to be an American, Not anymore. Freedom of speech! What a joke!

I cannot say what needs to be said because this site and its owners will be shut down.

Ron Paul one man with the vision to show a nation what needs to be done. One man who could lead a nation of spineless, milquetoast, toadys'.

Irony of all this is that the rats have left for europe and the new electronic game.

Joh Gottis' once loved respect by New Yorkers was because he hated and despised scrondrels and liars. The fear of punishment to an innocent loved one should be no less for those who we have placed trust upon.

Todays run up does not justify letting them off the hook.

Uncle Sugar Sam Cowboy Rodeo Show.
Be gored by the MAD bull.

While you bleed in the dust.

The spectators silently drift away, thinking only of future games.

Regulation is not intended to promote honesty and justice, nor to punish fraud and theft, nor to prevent them nor to prevent damage to you or the environment. Government's goal in regulation is patronage, the sale and receipt of "favors" by the bureaucratic functionaries. It is as much about "being important" as it is about cashing in or trading a favorable ruling by your agency or department for a cushy position for your incompetent niece who can't even sharpen a pencil. Regulation is the triumph of the petty tyrant in the government's cogs screws and wheels.

For the industrialist regulation is intended to fix himself permanently on top of the heap within his industry. It is mainly about the exclusion of competition, but also about the elimination of liability. Regulation inhibits meaningful competition largely in two ways: by imposing costs on new entrants so that new competitors can't enter the markets because of artificially high barriers to entry, and by imposing identical operating conditions and pricing on all participants, or fixing of market share in perpetuum.
Another sideline for the industrialist's benefit from regulation is the ability to buy information on competitors by collecting information from the regulators through an indirect quid pro quo.

The reduction in liability comes from the raising of the hurdles for proof of negligence by introduction of a standard of behavior imposed by government. If there is no regulatory action against a party being sued for environmental damage to other's health or property, then the defendant in the civil suit can claim that he was operating within safe and legitimate guidelines.

So don't complain because regulators don't "do their job". They are doing it. It is just you who is viewing their job as something it was never intended to be. Their job was not to prevent fraud, but to protect the perpetrators of fraud by making it legal "if subject to regulation". Thus the explosion of derivatives that their issuers can never afford to cover was fine, and it would be the person who bets against the issuers who would be harassed because the regulators are in fear of having nowhere to go as their career advances if the main regulated parties succumb to the effects of their own misjudgements and frauds. You, by yelling that the bank is insolvent will be blamed for the bank run. The fact that the bank was illiquid and insolvent would not matter because the regulators did not think it was a problem, and you are therefore a scare monger raising panic where none was due - if people didn't withdraw their money the bank would still be open, taking in more deposits, and all would be normal.

Do you see where you are misguided?

Your best bet is to close down the regulators and remove the laws that grant the regulated parties priveleges defacto or dejure. You will open them to competition on all fronts - pricing, quality, treatment of employees, financial stability (no one to tell you they are doing fine when they are in the throes of perpetual bankruptcy), responsible behavior (avoids liability costs), etc...

Yes, I see this now! Thank you!

yep you are correct, I'm a circus boy. I think there was a movie back in the 60s' , big top or something with some kid in the circus, cannot remember??

Bozos balloon is being deflated.

is life on earth derived from the energy of the sun

In no way was my post against you personally. I was agreeing
with you towards the body-politic, we find ourselves in.

If you think your baloon was deflated, my incomprehension of the extent of corruption has caused me to blow up.

===== ORO that post was great . I urge everone to read it at least once a week , just to remind themselves what mess we live in .

No, I agree with what you said, oro is correct and I'm sure most of us realze this is a circus.

Humble pie great handle,

Back in the 40s' & 50s' we didn't say i'm jumpin in, we'd say I believe I shall take a plunge. Bye bye $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

Another good and insightful essay and if I may I would like to add a few observations.
In analysinng the recent history of US gold production the lowest overall gold prodused in the States was about 30 tons annually in the early to mid seventies and from then on rapidly rising to today's 350 tpa.. This nicely fits in with ORO's views and made the US the world's second largest producer behind SA, where production was steadily falling from a record of 1.200 tpa to todays 470 tpa.
Another reason, of course was advanced technology in exploration, engineering and metallurgy. With the advent of heap leaching and carbon in pulp ore treatment the recovery rates, costs and handling of lower grade and refractory ores became economical.
Furthermore, the rising POG, free of its peg, resulted in an exploration boom, which amongst other discoveries led to the elephant bonanzas of the Carlin, Battle Mountain and Getchell Trends in northern, central Nevada, now producing about 2/3 of the US gold output. And as Ralph Roberts, a geologist with the USGS since the 50's in Nevada predicted - that this part of Nevada will prove to eventually be bigger than all of SA - still a way to go, though it seems Ralph will be proven correct. There's more to discover in Nevada than Casinos and cattle.
Thanks ORO - cb2

Pooh,pooh, handsome Seikh Yamani, predicts POO to crash to 10$ again in 2002 ! No arguments given ! We TALK things up and down, these day's. What a wonderfull world ! Soon 1 Liter of crude oil will be worth a bottle of water, again.

Up until now, nobody, has explained, in detail and facts, how the complete paper-gold situation is constructed. Yes, plenty of theories about, global gold short positions.
Impossible to get (enough) proofs and facts. All theories, must be deducted from POG's behaviour and related actions. High time for some "infiltration". !! It is the complete "Silence" of the gold-actors, that disturbes me enormously.
Silence, against 1001 unanswered questions, is provoking the rumors and stories avalanches by gold-philes. Very confusing.

How can we pinpoint that gold is secretely and silently being accumulated by the "informed" ? Or is it the other way around : silent distribution into oblivion. Just to get rid, once and for all, of the extreme power of gold.?

Each UK 25 ton auction is given away at a lower price.
A very intelligent way to sell a reserve, accumulated for so many years. Isn't it ? Still not one sound reason why they are selling. Complete Indifference of the masses, for serious matters.! So be it. Reserves are ment to dispose them off !? Point.

In the mean time, we see plenty of other commodities rise and fall. Nobody dares to dissect the gold-paper-giant.
For what reason is it, that the gold-paper-dam can't be unraffled ? What is so complicated about it ? Is there really not a single derivative-insider, who can and will, explain, why gold carry trade and gold paper mountain, are able to keep POG under water for such a long time ? Sorry for insisting.

Dr Wong say baseball is all wrong...

Man with 4 balls cannot walk........

Oro: Amazing posts today! I'll have another cup o' java before diving into the equations on consumer/investor behavior, but I'll be sure I've got your anecdotal drift down before I shove my brain in that direction. Gold industry overall long-term picture is something we actually need to have before us once in awhile, without trying to figure out individual stocks, so thanks.

Wolavka: When you uncork, you really have a lot to say, don't you? Remind me of DiETeR on the TB2000 y2k forum (wHo AlWAyS TYpeD liKE ThiS), a brilliant clown, who never stepped out of character and was much-loved and missed after 1/1/2000. I'm glad you're here with us saying provocative things.

Belgian: Good questions. The ones that go through my head at least once a week.

http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSearch/alltrytd.html?fundCategory=all≻reen=trytd&headup=&Select.x=72&Select.y=7BTW, Oro, my first ever visit to Morningstar (mutual fund investors' bible I hear, though no funds have I) shows 2.29% YTD return on average of 11000 funds. Quite a bit short of the 26% or so expectation. Major cognitive dissonance ahead.

US stock funds, Year to date:
Group average of 4796 funds 5.30%

US stock funds, Year over year total return:
Group average of 4420 funds 20.72%

US stock funds, 3 Year annualized total return:
Group average of 3326 funds 15.47%

US Diversified stock funds, Year over year total return:
Group average of 3872 funds 19.46%

US Technology stock funds, Year over year total return:
Category average of 127 funds 35.65%



So where do they go for investment?

The only limitation they have is the absorption capacity of the markets being looked at. i.e. how large that market is in its historical ability to absorb large scale funds at a goodly rate.

South Korean banks have produced a blacklist of 29 big enterprises, bankrupt or ready for bancruptcy. South Korea is number 11 on the world's list of economic powers. Cheers.

Europ:POG up 2$ US:POG down 2$. This to ensure that on nov. the 7th...the Brits get the lowest possible price. Sssshia.

Before the question, may I say "Thank You !" again for sharing your thoughts. -- Now the question, "was that a PPT push at 10am today ?"
<;-)

Sorry, if it was them I missed it. Not watching closely today.

No danger to the dominant male gorilla, might trash the truck though. Seems every little rally, no matter how small is met with plenty of sellers to keep POG under the lid. All we need is one massive spike to start fear and panic among all the shorts out there. Gotta be soon!

Hi Farfel!

You and I haven't always seen eye to eye, but I HEARTILY agree with your post, Farfel (11/02/00; 23:07:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 40497) Democrats stink beyond comprehension...

I can't add a thing. Well except if you find you just MUST vote, the Libertarians are more organized -- they're running enough congressional candidates to theoretically actually hold a majority in congress, should they all win. Yea. I know.

Nader's honest and he's certainly better than Al Bush or George Gore, but he thinks the answer is MORE government interference, just not by the folks running THIS one. Problem is all governments rather quickly attract folks just like the folks now running THIS government.

High regards,
Journeyman

Who or whom is gonna cave in and admit that gold has its place in this world of turmoil.

The man who admits he is wrong is wise, the one who gives in when he is right is married.

We need to look for the E C B run by the iron skirt.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOgL3bRYqRXVyb3BlEuropean Economies: ECB, Acting Alone, Intervenes to Boost Euro

"Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the U.S. ``shares the concerns'' the ECB has expressed about the euro. At the same time he reaffirmed the ``long-standing'' U.S. policy that a strong dollar is in the national interest."

ITS AS OBVIOUS AS THE NOSE ON OUR FACES.......CURRENCY WARS=NATIONAL INTEREST WARS........MAKES NO DIFFERENCE......WE ARE SPECTATORS IN THE COLESEUM......FIGHT ON OH HERO'S OF FIAT! THE GOLDEN LION ALWAYS WINS IN THE END ANYHOW!

PS The Euro wins in the end because they have applied the only golden lion repellent know the man........"mark to the maket and FREE GOLD", (ie they've cut a deal with the golden lion to let him free after the fight!)

Ref: Sir CoBra(too)# 40517 Sir ORO # 40505, commenting on Sir Trail Guides post on Gold Mines.
ORO, thoroughly enjoyed your analysis of the current Gold mining industry.

Would like to also contribute a little "Food for Thought" using Gold mining as the common topic.
We all now know that many of the earths natural resources are in limited quantity. We have also learned from "The National Geographic Magazine" that the same indigenous people(Australia's Aborigines) have existed here on Planet Earth for at LEAST 60,000 years, surviving in a sometimes hostle environment.
Why do I bring this up? Because I feel that Sir ORO's excellent presentation on present day Gold mining is based on using the present day "Paper Money" valuation of costs associated with present and future Gold mining to the readers of this forum.

Now I'd like to look at Gold mining briefly in a slightly different perspective, the "What If" perspective.

"What If", the United States had never had the medium of exchange(Gold)changed in 1933 by President Roosevelt?
Here are some facts from my coin book:
From 1795 to 1838 a Ten dollar Gold coin contained about 1/2 ounce of Gold.(.5159 of an ounce) in 1838 the amount of Gold was changed down very slightly to(.4839 of an ounce) a difference of .0320 of an ounce, thereby devaluing the $10.00 Gold peice slightly.
10 one ounce Silver Dollars equaled 1 $10.00 Gold coin.
Roosevelt issued his infamous Gold confiscation decree in 1933.

So, for a period of ""103 years"" the value of things paid for in Gold(real money) depended on supply and demand for pricing.IMHO a very difficult period for Governments or anyone else to "Manipulate" a wage earners present or future wealth. The storage or non-storage of wealth was up to each individual family unit.

So lets discuss The Gold mining industry if the only form of financing was to sell a partial ownership in the Gold mine.(Issue Shares of the Mine) gold mining would probably still have boom and bust cycles, but there would always be a huge demand for the product as it is an accepted worldwide storage of wealth/money.(Gold)As it was and still is in some areas used as money.
Now lets consider what a Gold mining company could do if they were making a profit now-a-days.(totally restricted by the low "wholesale" POG)
They could invest in timber,agriculture,land,banking,hi-tech ,mine exploration,or anything they want to if their product(Gold) was produced at a profit.

The theme of this post is to make people realize what a trap debt has become in this modern world! IMHO PAPER DEBT IS DESTROYING MOST MEANINGFUL PRODUCTION WORLDWIDE,OIL PRODUCERS UNDERSTAND THIS!!!

What am I going to do about it? I'm going to take a part of my profits and invest in some physical Gold as insurance, just in case I happen to live in an area(hostile invironment) where my paper money will no longer support a life style I enjoy.
Not meant as investment advise, only thoughts.....beesting.

Ex-Fed's Boehne sees good chance Fed to cut rates early 2001
New York--Nov. 3--Former Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Edward
Boehne said Friday he believes there is a "pretty good" chance that the Federal
Reserve will lower interest rates early next year as the economy continues to
slow and inflation stays under control. The economy is sending mixed signals
and there is a "higher level" of uncertainty about the outlook, he said.
( Story .18152 )

TG......YOU HAVE BEEN EXPECTING THIS I BELIEVE?

http://www.crbindex.com/SORRY

The other day, maybe two days ago, that unknown man who calls himself Trail Guide and
FOA spoke his wisest words. He suggested to someone here at the forum that the best
thing that they could do to further the cause of gold and its best use as a money and
wealth preserver was essentially to proclaim it to the world. Talk to friends, neighbors,
talk to people he doesn't even know perhaps. That was the gist of it all Make some
bumper stickers even!

Why was this message so wise? Isn't GATA going to sueon our behalf? That will
straighten things out! It might. Hopefully. But it isn't a job GATA can do alone. Nor
should it. In time,even GATA;s work will fall like leaves from a tree.. What is needed is a
farmer.A farmer to help its life along to guide it upwards, to protect it from the winds. In
fact, many farmers planting little seeds among the populace. Seeds in fertilesoil and even
proclaiming the seed in tiny hidden crevices between rocks. Did you know you and I were
farmers? Of course, how silly we are gold forum members and should be smarter than the
average person, we say. Each of us are responsible. Today. Yesterday. Tomorrow.
Now why do we need to plant seeds? Isn't it good enough, in fact, shouldn't it be
good enough that the good idea of gold as a monetary device should prevail as so many
here profess? Good ideas will carry the day? All the darts at the sheeple as we call them
will get throuhgh as long as we come here to forums like this and do a bit of venting and
educationg. It isn't enough. GATA is not enough. Never will be. Never has been. It is a
drop in the pond. It does have an effect. Revolutions can't extend generation to generation
Tthe truth of this monetary message needs life breathed into it. Do you have any to share?
Is all your breath being spent on other things? Baseball, TV ,Ralph Nader perhaps?

Ok how does Houdini apply in this? Very simple. And it goes to why your breath is
needed to tell others the truth about gold. Houdini was a master of physical deceptions.
David Copperfield is another. These men titilate us all with their sleight of hand. We pay
to have them entertain us. We all want to see how they do what they do. In fact, so much
so that there is even a program on the tv that is devoted to revealing magician's secrets.
Perhaps you have seen it. Deception is fun. Deception often gives the idea that we can
have something for nothing. Why else all the fantasy sequences in tv and movies. Why?
Greed lives in this environment with selfishness who is its brother. Yet. There still is
another type of deception.One more evil.Some would call it deception of the mind.Some a
deception of the soul. Whichever you choose, they are essenstially the same. Although the
believers of the first tend not to be believers in souls. So we Houdini lovers can easily see
the enjoyment in his act, but do we easily see the deception of our minds? Why wouldn't
say sane people not want real money?Why are we in the place we are in vis a vis gold and
paper currencies? Answer. Because we wish to think of ourselves greater than the truth.
Do you see that we have actually payed for this act of decpetion practiced upon us? We
pay for people soothe all our needs in return for a good imageof ourselves So we tamper
with our money to give us all that we desire and we elect people who will help us in our
fantasy.

The mental gymastics that many of the economist that reside here practice, the
future traders who do their gambling and know so many things about their business and
others of us, me included who do mental gymnastics regarding gold, have all missed the
real point. It is about deception that we brought on ourselves. We need to see why we
would want a politician to promise us freedom from our own conscience, from our own
responsibility. Freedom from having to pay our own bills.Freedom to choose a
comfortable life as long as our ox isnt being gored.This deception about gold is really a
freedom from truth. From consequences. From the knowing that we are not the gods that
we think we are.Who among us has ever wanted to get caught with our hands in the
cookie jar? What do u get if you are caught? Mom and Dad's glare? Their punishment?
More than that, my gold mates. You get the truth shining on you. This is what your
neighbors and friends need. And you can spread the seed. Will you do so out of your
comfort zone?
Unwilling to be able to admit things are most of us.It is the truth that pains our
ego's our own godhood that is really our friend.That pain is exactly whatis waiting to take
you out of your current life and walk with you, much as Moses was taken out of his life
and guided. Take your neighbor out of his comfortable life. At least once. I don't mean for
you to pester him or to beat a dead horse. Butraise the issue and make sure at least you
say his belief is wrong. ruin his lie for one day.
When you see someone double dipping do you say anything? When you see your
child spend too much time in front of the tv, is it easier to let him or her watch so you can
finish your reading? Why would it be different for us to call upon our fellow citizens to see
that they are voting for deceivers? It is no different. We choose silence, so long as we can
beat the other guy at options (not all, but most..look around your trading floors at your
co-workers, how many truth seekers among the money grubbing lot?).We choose silence
at our town meetings. We choose silence as long as the neighborhood we live in has an
alderman that keeps *our* street clean. Never mind that he cleans your street or gets the
tiny crack in your sidewalk fixed so that he can keep you happy...all the while you know
he has his wife and several other family members on town or city payrolls.

If you can go out and work at overcoming the deceptions that your husbands, wives,
childrens, freinds and neighbors actively seek out so as to drug themselves into happiness
and bring them to the truth about ALL their decpetions, you will have a good proper use
of gold all right. That won't be the half of your blessings. But don't do it for the blessings
you hope for. Do it because you are a truth seeker, making what is right more important
than any decption could ever be.

From an e-groups friend.....****I don't know who Charley Reese is but he has a good way of expressing the sentiments of many people......YGM.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"The presidential election will say more about the American people
than it will about the candidates. You have Al Gore, who has the
support of the homosexual crowd, the infanticide crowd, the feminist
crowd, the socialist crowd and the Hollywood crowd. You have George
Bush, who is supported by the pro-life crowd, the pro-Constitution
crowd, the military crowd and the pro-traditional-values crowd. Don't
let anyone tell you there isn't a clear choice. ... I'm tired of a
bunch of low lifes who hold the military in contempt, who expand its
missions while shrinking its resources, who insist on homosexualizing
and feminizing the armed forces, and who make sure no one but
politically correct bootlicks make it to high command ranks. I'm also
tired of lies, evasions, character assassination, extreme partisanship
and outright corruption. I'm tired of a so-called strong economy in
which nearly 60 percent of the mothers in America have to work in
order to maintain a decent standard of living. I'm tired of an
administration that lusts to surveil and disarm the innocent rather
than deal with criminals. I'm tired of an administration that speaks
in George Orwell's newspeak. I'm tired of an administration that
openly shows contempt for the Constitution." --Charley Reese



Message 21671 of 21672

Al Fuchino....your last post sir was your best since you came to this great hall....Just my humble opinion tho...."WELL DONE"...
My Regards to you....YGM.

We're having dinner tonight with some friends. I am bringing along a bottle of good red wine, a loaf of fresh bread and a pocketful of gold coins for consumption and discussion. Have a teriffic weekend.

Second to that Ken!! AND, I would like to recommend a non standard action of adding that perfect follow up of Mr. Charley Reese's essay. Together, they are all the more powerful!

YGM (11/3/2000; 13:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 40536)
If Ever a Post Deserved H.O.F....This Does.....
Al Fuchino....

Within a period of one week, two candidates were smeared:

First, some California Democrats raised the issue of Nader's sexual orientation, after all he lives alone, so maybe he is "gay?" How ironic that the party that claims to champion gay rights raises this question. I have no doubt that Democrats (NOT Republicans) kept Nader out of the debates in the first place, a party that once used to champion free speech, but now adopts Soviet-control methodologies for disseminating information.

Second, we have the DUI issue concerning Bush's character, conveniently "whispered" by a Democrat delegate within earshot of a very nervous reporter.

I smell James Carville and his rotten stink all over these latest smear tactics and, simply in order to remove weasels like him from the White House, I am doing the best I can to re-educate acquaintances as to what constitutes the new Democrat Party in America today.

Finally, let me comment on one other issue. I am a Jew by religion and culture, but the fact that a Jew is running for Vice-President does not impress me one bit in terms of endorsing the policies/actions of the Democrats. He is running for the wrong candidate, endorsing the wrong Fed Reserve Chair, and the wrong Treasury Secrtetary. So for those who state that "we all stick together," sorry, but it ain't true, and I am a good example of that.

Thanks

F*

Another e-groups friend provided this....Panama: Gold seized in Colon Free Zone allegedly linked to money laundering
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom, Nov 3, 2000, 301 words


Text of report by Jose Otero published by Panamanian newspaper `La Prensa' web site on 29th October

The Office of the Drug Prosecutor seized a shipment of jewellery and gold ingots hidden in a warehouse in the Colon Free Zone. The shipment is allegedly linked to the Speed Joyeros company, which is being investigated for money laundering stemming from trafficking in gold, police sources reported.

During a search on Friday [27th October] in the Free Zone, they opened the warehouse and searched the merchandise, which was initially valued at 3m dollars.

The source pointed out that the jewellery and gold ingots were first sent in a container to the National Police in Ancon. Later, on instructions from Drug Prosecutor Rosendo Miranda, the gold was deposited in the vaults of the National Bank where it will be kept until the investigation is completed.

In September US and Panamanian anti-drug officials discovered an international network that used two Free Zone companies to launder 10m dollars from the gold traffic. The companies that were investigated were Speed Joyeros and Argento Vivo. Their licences to operate in the Free Zone were suspended.

As a result of this drug operation, US Customs officials on 18th September arrested a Panamanian national of Israeli origin, Yardena Herbroni, the owner of Speed Joyeros. The arrest was made at New Jersey's international airport. The US ambassador in Panama, Simon Ferro, said that a Federal Grand Jury in the eastern district of New York brought charges against Mrs Herbroni and Eliahu Mizrahi for money laundering.

The investigations revealed that the gold comes from Switzerland. It is then sold to jewellers in Italy. The Italian pieces are sent to the United States and Panama. Some of the gold arrives in the Colon Free Zone and is sold to middle men. The merchandise then moves on to Colombia where it is used to finance drug operations or it is resold in the United States and Switzerland.

Source: `La Prensa' web site, Panama City, in Spanish 29 Oct 00 /BBC Monitoring/ � BBC.

World Reporter All Material Subject to Copyright

Quite frankly, the picture contains nothing which indicates that this is "laundering" of ill gotten funds. Sounds more like a trading company.

I wonder whom they didn't pay off.

What are the spec/commercial positions vis a vis gold, silver, platinum,
S & P futures, etc?

Thanks

F*

The other half had coffee with Willie Nelson in alittle cafe in marble falls texas, hot spot Horse shoe bay.

Says Bush is in.

... well served and even better received!

I'm all with you - cb2

The following 8 year cycles ( bottom to bottom ) :
1977 / 1985 / 1993 / 2001 = ?
All had almost the same characteristics : a period of relative optimistic price-evolution, with clear up bias seen in goldmining stocks (preparation phase). Followed by slow, disappointing,
price decline under small volume (doubt phase). Evoluating to a meltdown mode under increasing volume, with final spike to bottom under panic volume ( panic phase + capitulation). I have the impression, we are getting to that final phase now. Installing panic. Declining mineprices, seem to predict a POG implosion ? When panic-volumes are in...we now the bottom has been touched. Patiently waiting for these volumes, might be rewarding.

Isn't it remarquable that, we are constantly, comparing POG, with whatever reference, one can find. Oil / platinum
/ dollar / CRB / etc..etc... None of these references gives any satisfaction or sufficient guidance. Gold must definitely be a woman. Fascinating for ever. Always capable of swinging mood's from one extreme to another. Highly emotional. Goldfever can't be eradicated !

PEI, is stating that next week is a panic-cycle for gold and oil and dollar. Might be ? I'll watch these panic-volumes closely.

Never thought about it this way - so in retrospective you may be right - with the exception of 87, maybe the advent of Al Greenspan disrupted a more clear signal in a crash, which could have ended in utter disaster - I'd totally concur
with your observations. Late evening too - for cb2

... about having their assets snatched by predators and adopt poison pill defences - latest clue comes from Kinross, the co., which took over AU (formerly Amax Gold) - not Anglo - the SA hyena pack leader, or can you spell coyoteee?! - It won'tt do - cb2!

Sources say that China is putting its crack forces in a strategic area facing the Stait of Taiwan, heightening tensions in the area, and giving credence to an eventual takeover of Taiwan by the Reds. It is believed however that Taiwan will be courted first, and that China won't act while their comrade Clinton is in the White House, so as not to make him look bad.

Source: World In Review
$65/yr.
WIR
2533 North Carson Street
Suite J-118
Carson City, Nevada 89706

- Maybe ECB should get accostumed to Sysyphus - the guy who tried to shove a boulder up a hill - not a hillary-ious- rounded heel - and "steel" feel Pancho's euro Peso "keel" to nil. - reportedly, unteel u can spare a dime
before the end of time..when he boulder comes back down to haunt the slime - everytime in due time!

Die Moral an der Geschicht - glaub an keine Dollars nicht! - Gilt auch fuer euro's!
Wolavka - pls translate - if u can spare a dime - huh, the time?! To "mine"... and dine - with whiskey and wine - with the divine, who said that she knew what it meant - and she went - to vent!
Cat's are said to have seven lives - $'s have outlived cats - so far - rats! - 'escr-w' them and - me too - cb2

PS: Sell 'em again and again an.. a ..' ..... .. .. .

FN.T and G.T keep a rolling.

FN up on earnings report and G up on merger.

Not investment advice.

http://www.newaus.com.au/aatempclinton.html
Well, I've been off-line for a week (seems like much longer) and just got my computer going again and see the quality of posts is better than ever!

First things first. I'll second YGM's msg#: 40536 and Peter Asher's msg#: 40538 nominations of Sir Al's msg#: 40534, as well as, and especially, his suggestion RE Charley Reese - great statement!.

The election of Al Gore to the office of President of the US will be a signal, loud and clear to me, that God has abandoned this country and turned it over to its own futility, and consequently, it will be subject to his judgement and justice at some point in the future and it ain't going to be pretty. Just look at the examples of what happened to Israel in the Old Testament. Unfortunately, should the people of this country elect Al Gore, this country will get exactly what it deserves.

Secondly, it seems that the upcoming elections is prompting many to share their views. I would like to offer the article from the link above that says it better than I ever could.


Farfel, good post!

http://www.newaus.com.au/aatempeconus.html
From the link: "Bank Credit Analyst research group has expressed doubts that there will be a soft landing for the American economy, contradicting the optimistic views of many on Wall Street who believe that the economy will merely weaken rather than go into recession."

wolavka, you're too much...keep it up!

Anyone, re: Giovanni Dioro's post, my understanding is that Favorite Trade Status, as granted by Clinton and our Congress guarantees China access to US markets independently of human rights or other violations. So if China moves on Taiwan, do they still have access to our markets? Who could possibly be behind such an arrangement besides corporate America?

First, there was some confusion as to whether the question was what was the
ultimate _derivative_ or what was the ultimate _underlying_. I had in mind the ultimate
_underlying_ - - - but "ultimate derivative," now that I think of it, does
interesting and strange things to my head.

Anyway, when I asked with "underlying" in mind, I indeed had "time" in mind
as the answer, as both da2g and Mr Gresham apparently did too. "Full faith
and credit" and variations, such as the ability to tax, etc. are also good
answers I think, though from my perspective, one derivative level above (or
below) "time."

But I guess RossL did me one (or perhaps two or three) better by answering
"the energy of the sun." Leaving any vestige of "normal" economics out of
the picture, this is clearly the best answer.

Sir beesting gave a very detailed answer, and Mr. Gresham a philosophical
(if a bit rambling ) answer and touched on aspects I hadn't considered.
Makes me glad I asked!!

I had an ulterior motive for asking. Thinking in terms of human hours gives
the bottom line for what all derivitives can be worth if they're all agglomerated.
Of course, some of those hours are already stored-up in gold coins, wheat, etc.

But once the "just in time" delivery uses these all up, depletes the inventory
"on hand," there are only future human hours, leveraged by "capital equipment
and information" that can be used to produce and deliver whatever the underlying
that was contracted for. That's why increased productivity can help, but measure
what's been promised (like $80 trillion in notional value derivatives, etc.)
relative to the "stuff" that actually exists and can be produced, and it's clear
why the system must crash I think.

High regards,
Journeyman

One of our group (In an E-mail) just referred to Gore as the Anticrist. Pretty accurate, I'd say. I call him the "Stepford candidate." And Robin pointed out that, of all the candidates, at
all levels, in our voters pamphlet, he is the only one not looking at the camera.

Still need that final second for Al and Mr. Reese's great essays.

Aren't most derivatives contracts on securities that result in only the change in ownership of paper representing capital long since invested? Or, in the case of currency, only involving the fluctuations of quantities of goods on each side of a trade?

http://orlandosentinel.com/automagic/columnists/2000-10-31/OPEDreese31103100.html
Hey Peter - I'll be happy to offer another second for Al's post.

Charley Reese is a columnist for the Orlando Sentinel. Here is the link to the entire article. Lew Rockwell features Charley's stuff at lewrockwell.com.

In a letter to�Thomas Jefferson in 1787, John Adams wrote, all the perplexities, and distress in America arise, not from defects of the Constitution, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."

���� What was true then is even more true today.

���� If you write to the Secretary of the Treasury and ask where money comes from you will get an answer similar to this: " The actual creation of money always involves the extension of credit by private commercial banks."

If you write back and ask where the money comes from to pay the interest, you will receive an answer like this: " It comes from the same place the other money comes from."

���� Credit (monetized debt) exist only in the mind. It is not a substance, but an idea represented by bookkeeping entries and computer symbols.

��� A dollar is not money. It is the expression of money. A dollar is a unit of measurement like an inch or a quart or a mile. The Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the dollar as a specific weight of silver in the form of a coin and fixed the value of gold coin in relation to the dollar unit of silver. If there are no gold and silver coins, there are no dollars of anything.

���� Dollars cannot be money any more than quarts can be milk. A unit of measurement cannot replace the "thing" for which it is the measure. However, in our minds, this is exactly what has happened.

���� Under fractional reserve banking, banks lend money that did not exist until they loaned it. Banks create money by monetizing debt-the debts of government, business, and the people. Banks create money out of less than nothing because a debt is a sum of money due. It is not possible to pay a debt with a debt, but this is what the world is using as money!

���� Federal Reserve Notes are evidence of debts the US Government owes to the owners of the Federal Reserve (a privately-owned corporation) the payment of which is guaranteed by the collateral of all property and income of US citizens.

���� When the US Government borrows money, the Treasury creates a bond, which is a fancy word for an IOU and promises to pay a specified amount at a specified interest on a specified date. This bond is evidence of debt.

���� This interest-bearing debt is the foundation for this nation's money supply and its payment is guaranteed by the collateral of all property and income of US citizens. The FED "buys" this debt by making a bookkeeping entry for the amount and writing a check against no funds. In effect, the FED lends the US Government its own credit, our credit,and then charges interest on it.

���� Every� Federal Reserve Note (FRN) created by the FED is debt for us, which the central bank collects interest on, in addition to the interest from the bond created by the Treasury that put this money machine in motion. Then the FED inflates the amount of the bond in order to make even more loans and collect more interest on an investment that costs NOTHING. Under fractional reserve banking, the amount a bank can create is limited by the reserve ratio or fraction it is required to maintain. For example, when the reserve ratio is ten to one, a bank can create and loan ten FRN's for each one in reserve and charge interest on it.
The reserves of the FED is paper-nothing more than bookkeeping entries that are a record of debt.

���� The absurdity of the situation is that if there were no debts, there would be no money, since all paper currency and checkbook money is loaned into circulation. In order to pay the interest, there must be another loan because the banking system only creates the principle and not the interest. In fact, the interest can never be paid because it is not possible to return to the bank more FRN's than were created-making it inevitable that the FED acquire title to all wealth in the nation.

���� The only source of inflation is the FED. Increasing the amount of currency and checkbook money increases inflation. Creating new money reduces the value of all money, resulting in higher prices.

���� Credit which is deferred payment, and debt, which is a sum of money due, are the same thing, which is hidden by deceptive double-entry bookkeeping where a debt becomes an asset by calling it a credit. Paper money that redeems nothing only appears to have value because it can be exchanged for things of value. When a piece of paper representing debt is exchanged for wealth, someone has been robbed. FRN's expropriate wealth from one person, then another, until the last person who gets it will be stuck with it. What the first user gets for nothing the last user will get nothing for.

���� The sole function of paper money that is not one hundred percent redeemable in gold or silver coin is to get things without paying for them. Those who issue and control bank credit as money get everything for nothing. Bank credit is a devise for confiscating wealth, where numbers of nothing are exchanged for things of substance and value. This theft occurs unnoticed because we accept pieces of paper with numbers on them in place of real money, not knowing the difference between the two.

���� When using wealth as a medium of exchange, government must receive wealth from its citizens to pay for goods and services. When using credit, government is independent of taxes and does not have to pay for anything, which the illusion of taxes conceals from the people.

���� Though nothing is financed by taxes, consumption, the people's capacity to use up goods and services is reduced. Subtracting credits from bank accounts reduces consumption and eliminates previously created inflation. Taxes regulate inflation.

���� The FED pumps money into the system and the IRS sucks it out. The tax system reduces public allotment of credit in order to destroy some of the bank created credit so that the bankers, and their government, can continue to create more credit, and with this credit get unlimited goods and services for nothing.

Wow, what a day's worth of posts!

Wolavka's on a rant, Oro is holding court on everything except how to install a new transmission in the old buggy, and someone needs to slap Cobra(too) and ask: "What's that you're saying?!"

But I've got the capper, folks. This is one of the foretold signs of the End: Perot endorses Bush. The '60's weren't this trippy!

Hang on, all. It's over in a couple of more days. The national angst known as a Presidential election will, happily, be over soon. The saccharine platitudes will cease, and blood sugar levels will return to normal. As I've stated on every available occasion: I'll be voting for Harry Brown. Bush will be the winner, and although the air in Washington will smell better, life will go on much as before. "Meet the new boss. The same as the old boss."

Oh, the new X-Files season starts Sunday, and the Bills are playing a team they may actually beat. All's right with the world. Renew my subscription to the Lone Gunman for another year, and call me when the political ads have stopped polluting the airwaves. I never thought I'd long for a simple Burger King ad!

Good night!

M

I am currently thinking in terms of stored hours (savings of anything, including gold, wheat, and perhaps even paper promises to deliver paper promises to deliver gold, wheat, etc.) - - - and committed hours, that is future hours.

The first is "savings" the second, "debt." And I believe this is the ultimate "bottom line."

Have more thinking to do along those lines, and much more writing to make it clear.

In terms of FORMAL derivatives, you are right. And things are further complicated by people willing to settle for abstract promises to deliver anything (current megabyte "money.") And by services, which can't really be "stored."

Neither can sleep, which I'm now going to get some of!!

Regards,
Journeyman

CoBra(too) (11/3/2000; 17:59:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 40549)

I reJoyce in your use of language, all of 'em. Not far from Trieste, are you? Hmmmm...

ET

Glad you joined in, I was surprised that there wasn't a cascade of seconds. Glad to know who Reese is!

Did you read that piece at the link that Javaman put up? more of the same theme. It seems the world is waking up a bit. The thing about truly evil people like Gore, is that they don't realize how much it shows. Not having TV I didn't "See" the debates but I perceive that he unwittingly made himself visible for what he really is.

YGM ~ Technically, I "nominated" your post of Reese's essay when I seconded your nomination of Al's We could need another second on the latter, which you could do, or anyone else.

Townie, what say you? BTW are you here? You've been unusually quiet lately.

The ECB's 2-Cents WorthIt was surprising, to read that the ECB intervened today to
"support" their new EURO. It had been languishing at about
86-cents. Their intervention boosted it temporarily to 88-cents,
then it dropped back to close about 87-cents.
Surprising, because, we were all told that the Saddam/Iraq
decision to accept only EURO's for their oil exports, as of
Nov 1st 2000, was the rocket fuel needed to propel the EURO
into dominance over the despised US Dollar.
I guess we have been deceived again. Drat.

ThaiGold

It's Elementary...Gold will go up, ... when it is no longer *profitable* to short it.
It's that simple.

ThaiGold

Charley Reese (excerpt)..Peter I'm not sure it would be eledgible (HOF)as he's not a forum person, but if he was it sure would be seconded by me. Thanks ET for the link...I only got the excerpt and enjoyed the rest of the piece and look forward to reading more of this man's thoughts....YGM

Excellent info and advice on spreading the word. I would like to tell you about how my current situation exists which has many parallels to both of your posts. I've been fortunate enough to have two very close friends, (actually roommates who read this website as well - so the dicussions can get pretty heated), one is a gold bug, the other a mortgage lender. Here I have one friend on the front lines of credit expansion, enslaving the public through excessive debt, and the other buying as much POG as he can get his hands on because of this. I now work with the lender expanding credit myseif, taking my comission (which is rapped up in the loan) and buy POG. Therefore, I hope if I work hard enough I can through efforts of my own create more money/dollar crap, and inturn buy more POG. Make the dollar weaker and support POG. Now back to your advice Al, my friends and I spread the word like no one you know, even the mortgage lender which I am myself, now. It is absolutely hillarious watching people squirm when conforted with the truth, especially those heavily invested in the techs and the one's who are heavily in debt. The last thing they want to hear is that gold is gonna be worth something. I enjoy this everyday with one fella in the office who I process his loans for, when he rarely gets one - too lazy to work a little harder and understand the system a little better, not too mention the $400 bucks to process it. This goes into my pocket after its converted into POG. Its a beautiful thing, but you gotta feel for those who are gonna be running for the door as it's approaching $500,$700,$1000+... We here at the den of rockgrabber will not only continue to support POG but strive with the greatest effort to expand our worthless dollar supply through the mortgage lending process.
Gold, got me some, getting some more.

Attn: Rockgrabber (11/03/00; 23:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 40565)Rockgrabber:
Do not be too harsh on those hapless Mortgage Customers
of yours. Afterall, aren't they in fact purchasing the most rare
of all commodities ... Good Land.?. Last I heard, they weren't
making any more of it, ... and there are no mines..

ThaiGold

http://www.millenngroup.com/repository/global/expanding_earth.htmlBut only for the sake of argument.

No more land? Some people may disagree.....

I take no responsibility nor offer endoresment for what you find at the above link or anything you may find at the site. But it may jar your brain loose a little, and people around here have been saying they "like to think."

gfView Yesterday's Discussion.

Attn: Goldfly (11/4/2000; 0:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 40567)Goldfly:
Okay. As you said, For the sake of argument, and to jar my
brain a little loose(er), and it's late, and no time to think.

Expanding Earth.?. Equates to "more land". Hogwash.!. They
have it all wrong. The Earth is Contracting. Everyday. COMEX,
NYMEX, FOREX. Contracts, contracts, contracts. Enough is
enough.

Soon, not only gold and silver will be shorted into the ground,
why, the very ground itself will be shorted into the ground.

So, wouldn't that leave us with only half as much ground.?.

Good Land ... The Vanishing Resource. Mortgage you some.

ThaiGold

Both sides on property. Started buying lowland and wetlands back starting in 60s' and thru early 90s', alot @ county tax sales for back taxes.

Good for trading and pond life. look for good peat bogs and mine. plant life a hobby too.

Attn: wolavka (11/4/2000; 1:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 40569)wolavka:
Sheesh. You still up, this late. What are you doing...
Tallying up your margin calls.?.
I once knew a guy. Named Pete Bog. Probably that's who you bought your's from. Nice guy. He wanted to sell me a bridge.
But I didn't fall for his trick. I bot goldshares instead. Boy.!.
That was the smartest move I ever made. Don't ask me about
the dumbest moves I've ever made.
Since you're here tonight, I have a question for you:
Couldn't you make more money, just shorting gold.?. Like
everyone else there in the pits. Just a thought.
The Trend would be your Friend... As am I.

ThaiGold

http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmNoland is really worked up this week.

"Actually, I often ponder the mechanisms the allow broad money supply to expand by over $400 billion this year, while the household savings rate has turned negative and our economy runs massive trade deficits. What is the source of all this "money" when households aren't saving and dollars leave the country in droves? Well, the source is blatant and unrelenting money and credit excess. "

Attn: Mr Gresham (11/4/2000; 2:08:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40571)Mr Gresham:
[snip]
"Well, the source is blatant and unrelenting money and credit excess."

.... Sounds like my VisaCard.

Does MK take Visa? Might be the best "excess" you ever charged...

Like sailing ships in the night we may well juncture at the tail end of your 40482 HK trip for dinner :). Wive's included ?. Children more than welcome ?. A family affair.
Ok Question for all !. Who has done an international family home swap before ?. Hotels are the same all over he world arnt they ?.
Andrew the Kiwi , re 40485, the ratio's seem somewhat right,
never trust the press brother but off the top of my head an Iridium lined Moly backed vacuum chamber might void the path in the long term of prohibitive costs. Glad to see the Bower bird amongst us :). Expensive indeed .
Wovlaka , thats it.

Attn: Mr Gresham (11/4/2000; 2:08:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40573)Mr Gresham:
Yes. I believe CPM/MK does take VisaCards for purchases
of Gold, Silver, and such. Not sure. But it sticks in my mind,
and is why I intend to eventually Get Me Some thataway.
Not because I wanna "charge it" but rather for the convenience
of it. Not having to rush way-far-away to my bank, to get
a cashier's check, then rush again, way-far-away to mail it,
the VisaCard would be so easy. Then just send them (Visa)
a check, when I'm good-n-ready. VisaCards are "handy", for
such things in other ways. Once, I needed "cleared funds" for
a RealEstate transaction in Mexico. Just did a CashAdvance
using my Visa Debit card to extract the funds which were
already in my checking account it was attached-to. One
other time, $10k was needed for an unexpected escrow date.
It was easier to just put it onto the VisaCard, then pay it off
at my convenience. Otherwise, the cashier's check and
mail delays would've been too late.
VusaCards... Don't buy your Home Without One.

ThaiGold


ThaiGold

Here's one for you. Yes trend is your friend and everyone knows it but I trade with a double standard.

Trend is your friend

Trade the tit. Pup who sucks the hind tit needs to step up to the plate.

(tit) tendency initiates trend.

You must look ahead .

Internet started the new electronic trading which will eliminate all open outcry. Brokers are bull shit. Most are crooks.Look how the spread values changed when we went from fractional to decimal trading.
We will be totally electronic with a year.
Watch this stock tvx, no advice

Each night I sit back with a cuppa Ginseng tea and she wonders who loves who more. Shall we start a wives corner at USAGOLD ? oops or a hubby's bar and grill?

Each night I sit back with a cuppa Ginseng tea and she wonders who loves who more. Shall we start a wives corner at USAGOLD ? oops or a hubby's bar and grill?

Attn: wolavka (11/4/2000; 3:05:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 40576)wolavka:
As giddy as I feel tonight, I shall pass up the opportunity to
make light of teats, boar-hogs, etc. I can think of a million of
them, and all would prove offensive to our Ladies of the Table.
Suffice to say, my pup is a male, hence it's a moot mut.

Also, I really didn't understand your T.I.T. method. Oh well.

I'll be happy to see the demise of open outcry. Back in the
'80s when I activly traded futures Crude; Platinum: Silver; Gold
and had (before the internet) live prices via Bonneville FM at
my home. I could see that those jerks in the pits were ...er...
not executing my trades anywhere near where they should've.
I quit trading futures, just for that reason, the dishonesty of it
all was disgusting.

Time now for Rain_Dog's run. Goodnight all.

ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

Gold people should look back at the pork industry the last 2-3 years and you can see how it relates to what is taking place with gold.

26 cents for a # of pork, ask your loved one if she ever saw it at the store?

1500 independent pork farmers declared bankruptcy in Indiana alone. Packers made the money.

Now look @ pork prices.
Gold industry is going thru same distribution. Mergers, take overs, bankruptcies all coming.

check out yahoo finance message board gsr stock.

http://www.acresusa.com/original/
wolavka

I think Armand Hammer said something to the effect that "Food in the 90's will be like oil in the 70's" as his Iowa Beef Processors started consolidating things.

Acres USA has been publishing the best for 30 years.

Regards

Yes , , good site, gold comes in many forms,

The future of fiat paper is finished but not out.

Cybercash will be electronic entry on "plastic wonder passes to fantasy land" with gold as the only store of wealth. Tangibles also under ownership worth holding.

I like antiques quality stuff, try to find it. Like quality Numismatic coins. Saw 5 coins in 1980 purchase a home on Maui built by the architect of the Shah of Iran. 5 coins, value 2.5 million.

Is that value!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am sitting here watching Shop At Home Network where they are selling 1oz Golden Eagle Dtd @000 for $399.95 and a set of 1oz,1/2oz,1/4oz,1/10oz for 799.95, Maybe they know something. White Hills, PS MK sells cheaper!

This morning my father-in-law was explaining how dumbfounded he was at the cost of repairing a simple fender-bender. Over $1,000. The look in his eyes was one that expressed incomprehension. He's in his 80's and has had a fair amount of worldly experience in building and maintaining everything from tanks to bridges to semi-trucks. I have wanted to explain to him some of what I have learned here on the forum and went looking for the post where you indicated that real estate would double and triple and double again. I haven't found that one but it led to a re-reading of all of your posts of the last couple of weeks.

I just want to say A BIG THANKS finally after reading here for a year or so. Lately I have been more able to understand what you are pointing out and I truly appreciate the "heads up" you are giving me and other readers here. It really is like a mountain hike with a knowledgeable guide who points out the vistas and secret spots where the various wildlife is.

Your thoughts have also begun to engage that part of me that understands and can accept the fact that as you say - << "Great doses of reality force us into a better life, a stronger life.">>

I am grappling with the concept you present that - << "At some point, deflation becomes a socially impossible event because the credibility of the money system is rendered second behind recognition of real wealth loss. Here, we will lose the wealth anyway, but our books will still balance.">>

I visualize a biologic metaphor? wherein obesity is the parallel to inflation. "Empty calories" leading to increased physical mass. Losing one's health slowly by eating devitalized foods, seeing the high numbers on the bathroom scale as only indicating a need for losing a little weight, but no measurement of the underlying malnutrition.

You are very gracious with your patient explanations. Keep up the good work.

Regards

Now you have me worried. Whether that post was based on a "groundless assertion" or was merely "ground round" I think I'm going to have to take my Treasure Map and shrink it on the copy machine just in case. Now, exactly what size was that? I'll be walkin around with a shovel singin that old Beach Boy's song - "Ground Ground Get A Ground I Get A Ground."

Regards

That by the time Roman fell to Attila the Hun who was educated in tactics and paid off in Gold while being schooled in Rome's finest Military academy, that there were more slaves than Romans in Rome.

Making rounds this morning seeing real estate sales in Midwest are in serious trouble, nobody even looking.

Auto repair shops service industry also very slow, speaking of which late model vehicles which people complain to me about breaking down with on board computer sensors programed to 30-40,000 miles. Super rip off, no wonder auto industry sucks + high oil gas. Bottom line the fear is spreading.
Slaves will rebel in U. K. this next week.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/callahan/callahan22.html
A Modest Proposal

by Gene Callahan

The other day, I went to my friend Dick and showed him a proposal I was
working on. Dick happens to be a life-long Democrat, and as the proposal
forwarded a new plan for the government to help the underprivileged, I was
sure he would approve. Here's the proposal I showed him:

Today, many corporations in our strong economy have been left
behind by the general prosperity. These may be old-industry
stalwarts who have not been able to gain the skills necessary for a
smooth transition to the electronic economy. Or, perhaps, they are
new companies, just getting going in industry, whose penny stocks
are undervalued by investors. Perhaps, through no fault of their
own, these companies have had a run of hard luck � the CEO died, a
major customer went belly-up, or a new product from a competitor
rendered what they produce obsolete.

Many employees, suppliers, investors and customers are relying on
these companies. Meanwhile, these businesses are suffering from a
simple lack of capital. If they had sufficient funding, they could
invest in new plants or modern technology and could then aid other
players in the economy by buying more of their goods, supplying
them with better products, or employing them at higher wages. Not
only is it compassionate to help out these companies, it will help
the economy as a whole by boosting purchasing power.

Therefore, I forward a modest proposal. I recommend that the
government set a national minimum stock price. A reasonable first
estimate of where this should be set might be $10 per share. Once
this law is passed, it would be illegal to sell the stock of any
company for under this amount. (And of course, this is $10 per
share for the full number of currently outstanding shares � we can't
have ruthless exploiters trying to skirt the law by forcing a company
to do a reverse split or buy back its own shares.)

The effects of this law would be entirely salutary. No capitalization
need be taken from any other company to boost the capital of the
most-needy corporations. These corporations, now able to float
shares at least at this minimum price, will quickly become more
prosperous. The flow of funds to these enterprises will ripple
throughout the economy, spreading wealth all around.

"But wait a second, Gene," Dick said. "You're not serious about this, are
you?"

"Yes, quite serious," I reply. "Why wouldn't it be a good idea?"

"Well, first of all, your point about 'spreading wealth around' is ridiculous. If
anyone is buying these stocks at the new minimum price, they now have less
money than they would have had at the old price � in fact, exactly as much
less as the company in question now has more. So there is no 'new wealth' at
all."

"Hmm, you may have a point there. I'll have to try and work around that. But
do you see any other problems with my plan?"

"Of course! You heard me say, 'If anyone is buying these stocks at the new
minimum price...' But why would they? If yesterday, I was only willing to pay
$5 for a share of Dotty Dotcom, why in the world would I suddenly be willing
to pay $10, just because some new law is passed? I'll still only pay what I
think an item is worth!"

"So, what do you think would happen to the shares of Dotty?"

"Well, they would simply stop trading. Dotty, far from being able to raise
more capital, would no longer be able to raise any money at all."

"You have some good points there, Dick. But the funny thing is, I showed my
plan to a few CEOs, and they all loved it."

"Were these the CEOs of companies whose stocks were trading below $10
per share?"

"Well, no, in fact, everyone of them has a stock trading above $10 per share."

"Then of course they'd recommend it! They're trying to cut off competition.
Since their shares are currently above $10, their stock will continue to trade.
In fact, without the competition of the lower price stocks, demand for their
stock will go up. They're simply trying to enrich themselves at the expense of
the less fortunate. They're a bunch of scoundrels."

"You know, Dick, you've convinced me. My plan is stupid. Thanks. But you've
left me with one question."

"Sure, anything I can do to help." Dick was feeling quite confident, having
thoroughly debunked my proposal.

"Since you can see how stupid my plan is, why do you support raising the
minimum wage? In fact, why do you support having a minimum wage at all?
Aren't low-wage workers exactly analogous to the low-priced stocks I was
describing? Aren't employers equivalent to the investors in my scenario, in
that they will only pay the wages that particular work is worth to them? And
aren't the labor unions, the main supporters of minimum wage legislation, the
same as the wealthy CEOs I described to you, enriching themselves at the
expense of the less fortunate?"

It took me a while to revive Dick, but when he finally came to, he claimed that
he couldn't remember a word of our conversation.

November 4, 2000

Gene Callahan is a regular contributor to mises.org.

� 2000, Gene Callahan

It is my belief that drought induced water and crop shortages will soon become the focal point of our economy. We are entering a drought cycle in America and given any disturbing agricultural news, food prices will sky rocket.

Then we will say hello to real inflation and be thankful for our metals.

http://www.normeconomics.org/

The following is from the National Organization For Raw Materials.

"With the Korean conflict in '52, the government continued the emergency practice of deficit spending, but continued to cut parity ag policy, the true power of the wealth generating machinery of the economy, by restricting the crops to which parity applied, by "sliding" the parity price according to year-end stocks and by incorporating a 10 year roll-ahead base period formula which paid no attention whatever to the balanced base-period requirement which makes parity work. Since those efforts Congress has been miseducated, through shoddy accounting practices and dishonest statistical manipulations, to falsely believe that parity is no longer effective for the nation. Since 1952, as farmers have been forced out of business, rural areas have been depopulated, government capital debt has mounted and the "boom and bust" mythology of economics has become dominant in policy discussions, the reality of national well-being has been replaced with a John Law type paper money bubble that has brought us to a staggering unsustainable situation, all justified by some external threat which requires us to "borrow our way to prosperity."

"Every child born in this country now assumes a $60,000 debt, just by being born. We have stolen the birthright of freedom with which this nation began and sold it to cover yesterday's promise. Today's decimation of rural areas due to the planned elimination of agricultural producers has been treated with so many patchwork "fix-ups" that the human cost cannot be calculated. The lost income to agriculture from 1952 through 1998 is about $6 trillion, approximately equal to the public debt. This equivalence is no accident. Parity ag policy results in net positive revenue to government, provided only that our national financial and monetary policies are rightly based on earned (productive) income as the engine of progress and prosperity."

"In 1996, with the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act ("Freedom to Farm"), the government of this nation has tried to abandon farmers to the "world marketplace," while maintaining its regulatory authority. Government has assumed that enacted policies, never suspended, repealed or disavowed, can safely be ignored and will simply fade away. This has elicited ridiculous analytic statements such as, "Food is no longer vital to national security," from agricultural economist Steven Blank, Ph.D., Univ. of California-Davis. Such rationalizations, designed either to deliver us into the private hands of those interests adverse to our nation's continued existence, or to epitomize the precarious condition of our nation, characterize the straits in which we find ourselves. We are asking the 10th Circuit appeals court to determine whether 7 USC 602 can be ignored by the Executive branch without remedy. It has not been implemented resulting in demonstrative, extraordinary damage to farmers, including these appellants, for nearly 50 years. If it has "faded away," like Article I, Sec. 8, cl. 5 of the Constitution, the condition of emergency upon which federal regulation of agriculture stands has also "faded away" and succeeding statutes dependent upon such authority must be similarly vacated." --- Randy Cook President of NORM

Dear Most Worthy & Mighty CyberCastle,
As you possibly remember there was a recent ruckus involving some of your ultra loyal & left brained subjects & their heartfelt desire for a HoF section for Creative Dreamers {mandated under code 777 of the American Disabilities Act}. You will surely recall our requests as peaceful, orderly, and totally logical.We, once again, seek permission to approach the Throne with our humble ideas.
The last, shall we say inconsequential and trivial, disagreement was quelled and covered up in a manner that will be inspirational for future generations as they indeed marvel and mimic.
We are now here to inform you of current disturbing events in your Kingdom as this CLHE-HoF issue seems to be growing again among the multitudes. All wounds from the previous fracas have healed {except the emotional ones}, and this band is now suffering from too much R&R. All are gaining weight from inactivity and are out of fighting shape. There is boordom, restlessness, quarrelling, and more than a few are becoming abusive sots. I have skinny-dipped in the moat so much that my skin is peeling {could you add a little more chlorine por favor?}. There are abounding rumors in our encampment that are of grave concern. Some are saying the current quasi-official cease fire was negotiated in bad faith by the Child King who was only hoping to secure a Noble Peace Prize and a non X-rated legacy. How "unwashed"!
Here are a few examples of what your loyal leaders are having to put up with out here with the commoners; Goldfan has squandered his yet to be received gold as well as his future on some cockeyed short sale scheme. He now owes practically all the gold in the Kingdom but is living high now {talking about some bailout}. Christopher is so rested he no longer has narcoleprosy and that is a clear & present danger to all. Numus aureus has regained feeling and talks of nothing but the CAUSE. Cb2 is negotiating with the BIS for weapons funding and clothes laundering. Sir Black Blade is getting antsy for action and has sharpened his mighty sword to the point of rendering it into a dagger, and I am becoming fearful for the integrity of my own skin and vital organ. He has that look in his eye again! Lady Leigh is showing signs of RATIONAL exuberance and clamors for another effort. WARNING- Gandalf the Alchemist is working on a promising project called Operation Gunn Powder now that he has mastered Pb to Au. Shifty the Scandalmaker has suggested we "out" King Michael for some of his boorish behavior when he was but a Prodigal Prince. This will, of course, be done off the record. The Bi-Cerebral Sirs, Aristotle and TG, are lobbying to repost ALL previous CLHE-HoFAG drivel on a daily basis, and as you know, they can be very convincing! There is even talk that Farfel may join us {now that is some pressure!}. Some are clamoring for more Free Gold and this mutinous bunch may soon take matters into their hands once again.
We are assuring this motley group of dissidents that they will be treated honestly, fairly, and expediently by the Crown, but , frankly, we're not sure how much longer they can be appeased. It is hard to reason with these Lefties and the Wiz assures us that Prozac, Zanax, and Zoloft will not be created for 800 more years. Even our Founders are foundering and there is a clamor for reinforcements from the left. The Barbaras {Streisand & WaWa} want to join forces with us, but they are a bit confused as to what we are about. Please realize they are not welcome in our ranks as they use neither side of their brains { a type of bi-cerebral dysfunction, BCD}. Please be aware that we are not looking for a left leaning coalition government as Algor the Delusional so openly promotes across the seas.
We know that you have been preoccupied with this nasty problem in Jerusalem, but you're not likely to solve that issue anytime soon. Let's hope CLHE-HoF doesn't go on that long! In the meantime we are left to wander in cyberspace w/o a place to call home but these crummy refugee camps.
Just for the record our brave leadership has so far resorted to bribes, pestering, groveling, making a free gold assult w OPG, name calling, violence, shuttle diplomacy, and finally THE SILENT TREATMENT. We now want all to know the SECRET grawg-oaths we Knights of Malt & Hops of the Eternal Order of Dragon Breath have fearfully taken. These oaths require us to start over again at the top if we don't succeed with initial attempts! Fair warning?
We all understand that Town Crier has more important functions than dealing with CLHE-HoF, but could you {pretty} please give us some indication as to how much longer it will take for Townie to finish counting and stacking King Michael's personal riches?
Town Crier!!! We want a real peace treaty, looking for an OFFICIAL proclamation in recognition of our beloved CLHE-HoF. One simple {literally} acronym or word {uncle comes to the left side of my mind} from your Royal Keyboard will suffice. What say the blue bloods??
In your service,
Auspec

NOTE: Until we receive our formal decree of CLHE-HoF existence this post will.................................................................. ................................ ...........................................................................................................................................just fade into oblivion like all previous CLHE-HoF posts.

Local coin dealer reports that the premium he now must pay on pure gold coins (Philharmonics and Maples) has increased to 4.5 percent. I'm not sure what the premium was to him previously.

This is the story of the world class sailing yacht, the USS Election. Sailing has been good but about 45% of the "crew" has grown complacent, fat and lazy. Then there are yet another 40% of the crew that have been offering warnings about the possibility of sailing into shallow, rocky waters. And then, still another 15% of the crew who recognize that things have slowly but surely gotten way out of hand and that the only solution is to fire up the engines immediately and throw her into full speed astern.

Then, one day while at sea, hundreds of miles from land, the depth sounder alerts all to the fact that they have, indeed, entered shallow waters. If the USS Election quickly turns away from the present course, it just might be possible to avoid the rocks although there is a risk of putting a small hole in the hull of the USS Election. With luck however, the craft could be maneuvered so the hole would be above the water line and repairs could eventually be made so the boat could return to safety.

But if the USS Election stays the course, a devastating collision is a certainty and much more damage will result because of a more direct hit on the rocks. Yes, there may be time to launch the life rafts and be saved but the USS Election would certainly be lost.

And starting the engines and throwing her into full reverse is simply not an option as there just isn't enough time.

So the skipper asked the crew for their opinion and says he will let the majority majority rule his decision. And 45% of the crew said "life is good...I'm fat and happy...let's stay the course." And the 40% say "turn the boat immediately or we will suffer great damage!" And the 15% of the crew say, "well, we recognize we have a real problem on our hands and we understand that if we sided with those 40%ers we could probably avert immediate disaster and buy some time to fix things so we would survive, but we believe we need to send a message that bolder action is required, and even though we know there is no time to start the engines and put her into full reverse, we feel we must vote our conscience."

And with that, the good ship USS Election crashed into the coral reefs, was broken, and sank to the bottom of the ocean and there was much loss of life.

That is a fine analogy towards the "Survival" course of action!

I was reminded of a similar analog of logic in the classic movie "The Best Years of Our Lives."

The story is of WWII Vets coming home to their civilian lives. The former Sargent is again a Loan Officer. A farmer comes to him for working capital and when asked for collateral, shows his hands and says this is what I have. The Banker, having learned about men and life in battle, grants him the loan. At a staff meeting the Loan Officer is called to account for his foolishness and in defense tells this story:

During the war, our CO requested we take a very important hill under extremely dangerous conditions. We questioned him on the risk saying, "How do we know we will have a reasonable chance of obtaining our objective? What collateral do we have to compensate for failure? And the men refused to launch the attack!

"My God" the Bank President says, what happened? The loan officer says "We lost the war!"

You're worried about the election?
Bush is going to clean Gore's clock.

I'm no fan of Bush, I just think it's funny how the press is tryng to infuse life into Gore's campaign. Ain't gonna happen.

My prediction: Bush takes 49.5% 320 electoral votes. Gore 45% Nader 3.5%. If Nader gets more, Gore gets less.

Truth be told, I prefer to see Bush in there for the trouble that would seem to be lying near. We'll find out.....

.Sounds as if your local dealer is being "supplied" at retail, possibly through a mint-direct distributor. There are many dealers selling these coins at discounts to the standard distribution premium rate simply because of the current "glut" of modern bullion gold coins that carried over from the Y2K sell off. Have noticed premiums rising slightly however, so that MAY be an indicator of things drying up.....? Then again, many dealers on a local or small shop level do tend to take advantage of falling prices as an excuse to raise their base premiums, i.e. price of gold goes down - premium goes up. Not at all an uncommon practice. And this tends to ride right along with all primary bullion pieces (Krands, Maples, Phillys, Eagles, Pesos, etc.) whether 24K, 22K, .900, or whatever the case. Guess we all have our "preferences" in designs and purities, but gold is gold is gold.....doesn't matter too much whose image or seal is on it. Personally like to seek out the lowest premiums to net the largest number of ounces per dollar. Purity is not a major issue unless you are looking at "using" the gold for something other than it's coined form, i.e. melting and refining it for other purposes. I know of several jewelers who use bullion coins as a basis for mixing jewelry casting alloys to save on pre-fab costs of pre-mixed casting "shot" in various karat values, and this has long been the most cost effective route (the coins). Some use old karat scrap, but you can never be totally sure of gold content using that method. It is just a matter of adjusting alloying materal according to the "known" alloy of the coin (24k vs. 22K vs. .900).....

Ooops, getting a little off track here......(smile)

Thanks for the thoughts guys. The fact of the matter is that this election is too important for Al Gore to win it. As I've mentioned before, several (3-4) Supreme Court justices are going to be named by the next president and if Al Gore is naming them, I'm afraid irreparable damage will be done to our country.

Yes, I am concerned that Bush may not win it. Not because he is so capable, but because he is literally the lesser of two evils. Bush will simply do less damage to the Republic. Al (the Antichrist) Gore simply strikes me as the very definition of evil and he will stop at nothing to win the election. He will make Clinton look like a mischievous schoolboy. That's why it is so important that all possible votes go to Bush.

I am sick and tired of this two party system and agree its time for others that are less beholding to the big corporations to be given a chance. I intend to vote Libertarian or Constitutional party in the next presidential election (I have more research to do) even if Bush wins and is running for a second term, unless of course, Hillary decides to run, in which case I will be compelled to vote for whatever candidate is opposing her and has the best chance of winning for the same reasons as mentioned above.

Goldfly, for the sake of this country, I hope you are right.

After what was for me an atypically lengthy bit of traveling, I must say it felt nice to return earlier in the past week to this outpost with the "Golden View" of the world. The good sense of seeing The Tower loom in the distance as I made my approach was surpassed only by that of once again grasping the iron ring to coax open the heavy wooden door and reunite with the essence of calm and understanding that seems to permeate everything and everyone that operates in the space within these walls (and occasionally upon the roof, too.)

As always, it was good to find my desk exactly as I left it, and to see that the plants had been properly watered. But these are physical things that to you are of no consequence, for you perceive me and The Tower in a cybernetic existence only. Physicality and location are nearly meaningless when modern communications can assist one and his information to appear anywhere and everywhere he has need to be. With that, I am certain that all of you that have had e-mail contact with me during these days had no reason to question my whereabouts or give thought to who might be watering my three physical living plants here in The Tower. And neither have I had cause for concern, being in command of communications facilities and assistants here in The Tower that are both outstanding and reliable.

In the days since my return I have been nursing a cold, but more importantly, I have given serious thought to The Tower's mission to enhance support of this web site on the past directive by (and agreement with) Michael K. at Centennial Precious Metals. Looking back, I can say that the most substantive changes have been already made. However, I have now also recognized other opportunities for improvement, and have reallocated the resources at my disposal accordingly to best meet our service-oriented and outreach objectives. Likely, the most immediately noticeable outward consequence of this action is that I shall (until further notice) be submitting the various news and thoughts from The Tower using this handle: Randy (@ The Tower). As in the past, you may continue to contact me directly as your needs may require at sitemaster@usagold.com

Kind regards,

Randy

I usually buy from either of the two large coin dealers in my area, and occasionally buy from one of the smaller shops. I say that two of these shops are "large" because in my conversations with the dealers they've spoken of buying or selling a few hundred 1-oz coins at a time.

In every shop I periodically visit, I've asked about the Y2K sellback activity and been told that it has been over for a while. Dealers at both large shops said that most of the sellback activity took place the first week in January, but that gold dribbled in for a few months after that.

The two large dealers are now pricing their 1-oz coins at approximately $17 over spot for eagles. Krugs are a few dollars cheaper, maples and phillys a few dollars more expensive.

Dealers at both large shops now tell me they are seeing very few customers coming in to buy gold. The one I know the best was keeping approximately 100 1-oz coins in stock for each of the three types he sells the most (eagles, maples, krugs). I have never known him to be out of phillys either. But a few weeks ago, he told me he is not getting much demand for gold of any kind. Today, he is out of phillys, down to less than 50 maples, and not willing to re-order either through a distributor. Additionally, he has always said that the premium on 2000 eagles was higher to him than previous years' premiums, and thus the cost for 2000 eagles would be about $5 more to me.

Based on the dates of the coins I've been purchasing, I expect that both large dealers have not been ordering much from distributors. Rather, I expect they have been recycling Y2k sellbacks that came in earlier this year. Now, it appears that at least one dealers Y2K sellback supply is running low.

Parsifal

http://www.usagold.com/hall/CLHE/clhesubmit.html"Dear Most Worthy & Mighty CyberCastle,
As you possibly remember there was a recent ruckus involving some of your ultra loyal & left brained subjects & their heartfelt desire for a HoF section for Creative Dreamers {mandated under code 777 of the American Disabilities Act}. You will surely recall our requests as peaceful, orderly, and totally logical.We, once again, seek permission to approach the Throne with our humble ideas. [...]
We all understand that Town Crier has more important functions than dealing with CLHE-HoF, but could you {pretty} please give us some indication as to how much longer it will take for Townie to finish[?...] Town Crier!!! We want a real peace treaty, looking for an OFFICIAL proclamation in recognition of our beloved CLHE-HoF. One simple {literally} acronym or word {uncle comes to the left side of my mind} from your Royal Keyboard will suffice. What say the blue bloods??"
In your service,
Auspec
-------------------
Having looked into this matter amid other ponderous dealings, I have taken this accommodating action to stem the rising tide of pitchforks and garden rakes mounting against Centennial's castle walls. I trust that the link above shall be found satisfactory in all regards for meeting your demands, and with it, this matter can come to a peaceful and FINAL resolution.

I invite you and your fellow left-brained conspirators to log in and enjoy the well-earned fruits of your diligence and my acquiescence. Via this link, you have finally gotten what you deserved.

Enjoy!

http://sightings.com/general4/drugempire.htm

Is is remotely possible that "the dead moose on the dinner table" is that the elections are partially about which political cartel gets to oversee the $500 billion illegal drug trade and all the nasty crap that goes along with it??

.You may be right about earlier Y2K coins being sold off only now. Could help explain the higher premiums because of the lower spot price in relation to when they were bought.....i.e. trying to recoup some of the "loss".

Here locally, most of the bullion coins are still selling at 6 to 8 dollars over spot, but a couple of dealers are up to 10 over. I don't know why location would matter, but it does seem to. Here also I've noticed little turnover in dealer stocks of late. Seems the lower price = fewer buyers mentality is in full swing. "Buy high, sell low, and make up for it in volume" I suppose !

The premium difference in the 2000 year Eagles at this point is probably due to the mintage figures.....down VERY significantly, so the dealers are claiming they will be the lowest mintage year of the series....."rare" in comparison to other years (to collectors). The mintage figures have spiked up a bit for September and October however, so that may be another indicator that the mint is back in swing with the mintages after the Y2K lull / sellback that also lowered mint orders. They still have a long way to go to get anywhere close to last years mintage.....something like 25,000 1 oz. coins so far this year to a hundred some odd thousand for 1999. I'll check figures and post them later.

I'm with you, and would say anyone selling "multi-hundreds" of 1 ounce coins at a time is a "larger" dealer ! (grin) Wish I was the "larger buyer" on the other end of those transactions......

aunuggets

.U.S. Gold Eagle mintage figures for the 1 ounce coins:

Thru November 3, 2000 = 31,500 pieces

1999 year = 1,491,000 pieces

1998 year = 1,518,000 pieces

(figures for 1 ounce coins only)

***
Thru November 3, 2000 = 31,500 pieces
1999 year = 1,491,000 pieces
***

These numbers have a dramatic impact when I realize that
31500/1491000 = approx .02

So, as of 3 Nov., the US Mint has produced only 2 percent of the 1-oz Eagles produced in 1999. Wow!

http://news.excite.com/news/r/001104/16/news-media-secrecy-dcFrom the link: "Today I am disapproving H.R. 4392, the 'Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001", because of one badly flawed provision that would have made a felony of unauthorized disclosures of classified information."

So what country is this guy working for anyway???!!!

If I'm not mistaken, "unauthorized disclosures of classified information" used to be called treason and people were executed for it!

.Perhaps that extra 5 dollar premium on the 2000 eagles is not such a bad gamble, eh ? Note that the 1/2 and 1/4 ounce 2000 eagles are pretty much in line also.....all look to be "key" issues unless the mint really cranks up production here in the last 2 months of the year. With current market conditions, that is looking more and more unlikely. The closer to the end of the year it gets, the more these appear to be a VERY GOOD bullion AND numismatic play.

aunuggets

Dear Thai,
I would never view my customers as hapless, especially when you look at what they get in return - land. Good land in particular is a very rare commodity indeed, especially in beautifully, overcrowded southern California. Just love waking up in the morning listening to your neighbor fart. Not for me, I need some space; however, I also love the beach and space and beach aren't very common along this coast. So I did my research and found (like all good miners should) a mine, not of gold, but of land - good land. Close to the beach I might add. Ever since I've been helping a select group of friends into the purchase of space at bargain prices, not to mention the shouting of POG into their "hapless" minds as well. Taking a closer looking at 80+ arces tomorrow that has mature oaks, sycamores, manzanita,etc... with an asking price of about only 2200 oz of POG, think I'll keep this one. Wonder what kind of loan, maybe a 80/15/5, gotta keep the credit expanding.
"Good Land, Mortgage you some" - Thai I agree with you completely.

Dear Towerful Randy,
You are a good and worthy man and our band of Lefties will not let you down. Thank you kindly for suggesting that we form a group of creative individuals to lend some lightness in a seriously gloomy dungeon. What we have is contagious and no one on this site will ever see the same reality they now think they see. It is OFFICIAL!!!! We have a homeland!!!
We have sanctification!!! Long live King Kosares!!! Pass the Grawg!!!!
This battle is a precursor of what is to come as the world banking elite, enemies of Free Gold, are next in line to face our combined left hemisphere enhanced creative onslaught. They are mere patsies in comparison to this USA Gold Fortress!!! Fellow countrymen, savor your victory & party hardy, for tomorrow we face the GS, BIS, FED, ESF, WGC, BG, and all other Gold Axis forces aligned against a free gold market. Our same tactics will expose the devious activities of these malign forces. To the spoiler go the victory, may the most creative force win. Truth be known!!!!
Thank you Sir Randy and gracious CPM. We, united, will not be denied! Thank you fellow and aspiring CLHE-HoFers. May we make the USA GOLD FORUM proud.
In your service,
The CLHE-HoF Gang

Sir Java,

Like you, I'm not a particularly strong "W" supporter. But I have to admire the way he has conducted his campaign, especially when contrasted with Al (spawn of Satan) Gore. Even the latest Gore dirty trick, dredging up a 24 year old Bush DUI conviction, is a good example.

Had a similar revelation materialized against Alpha Gore I think his response would be: "It's a vicious lie by right wing conspirators. I invented alcohol, by the way." Bush's response was: "Yep. I did it. I'm sorry, and I never did it again." Whatever one may think of his policy proposals, he clearly seems to be a more admirable human being.

I would not put it past the present administration to have arranged things to blow up on W's watch, in order to position the First Lesbian Dominatrix for 2004. You know, I've worked hard all my 46 years to not make enemies, to not hate anyone. I didn't think it was possible for me to detest anyone like I do the Clintons and their minions, but they are an overwhelming example of everything that is wrong with America.

Anyone who doubts this should read Roger Morris' Partners In Power. Have plenty of antacids & tranquilizers available; you're going to need them. I have night sweats at the thought of Hillary being a US Senator from my state for 6 years. Lazio may be Wonder Bread and Velveeta cheeze, but I couldn't face 6 years of his opponent's smug, arrogant mug on TV.

I think Bush will win in a convincing manner, and so I will feel free to cast my vote for the Libertarians. But Lazio will get my vote in a New York minute. The Clintons need to be consigned to the outer darkness: managing a bowling alley on the overnight shift!

Ain't "democracy" grand?

M

Gold is yellow, It is tracking the shaft . Both are essential to survive .

Deversify.

Dr Wong say the long and the short are like nail and screw.
Nail bend and screw strip. When screw strip ,useless, nail can be straightened.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/001105/80/ao82a.html
Former German Socialist Chancellor Helmut Schmidt says, in his latest book, "Europe's Self-assertion", that his close partnership with French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing bore fruit in the form of the Exchange Rate Mechanism -- the forerunner to European monetary union -- a bid to restore order to markets sent into turmoil by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the Arab oil embargo.

The euro's short-term difficulties would evaporate as soon as Europeans had the money in their pockets in the form of notes and coins in 2002, said Schmidt.

Yes, the homo economicus is definitely trapped in his own speculative black hole. He has a blind date with the final outcome. Speculation today, is not a part of the economy, anymore. It has gradually taken over, a Big part of the economy ! Of course, this is not a new given. But it helps a lot to understand, why " rational thingking" is leading
nowhere anymore. Speculation is covering up the shift from expansion to contraction of the world's economy. Speculation is responsible for the Unproductiveness of the growing debt. Speculation is responsible for detoriating the "quality" of profits. Speculation stands in the way of sound Investment. Speculation-Fever, hates normal and natural expansive growth-rates. All anomalies are derived from that blind, flourishing speculative aspect of man. Irrational Exuberance, is, sorry...was, another way of shouting : Stop Speculating ! In vain ! Speculation is POG's only excuse, for not performing to goldphiles. Gold has been taken hostage by speculators. These speculators, know, they cannot kill, this particular hostage. That's why I volunteered to be one of them. I thingk that the word "speculation" is or shall be the best synthesis of what really, happened for the last 10 years. Only a small minority is actively conscient of this. The masses need to undergo the three stages of : Denial, Acceptance and Capitulation. History stands on his rights for ever.

Gold shall overcome, because it is here to stay...and speculation...comes and goes.

http://solari.comHas anybody read David Guyatt's book? Frightening.
According to him the total available gold stock is
much, much higher than the previously mentioned
120000-140000 tons.

Can anybody comment on this? Sirs FOA, ORO, all?

Hello BH,
Yes that was a fantastic read! Will give you my 2 dwts. worth of thought and some brief feedback from querying the author. One does not have to believe 100% of what is presented to have their current gold "world" shaken to the core. The supply numbers become, shall we say, altered a bit. Back to the drawing board Professor Veneroso?
A few things come to mind immediately: This amount of gold did not prevent a spike to $800 in 1980 dollars, nor a panic spike to $330 a year ago. It hasn't prevented the gold suppressers from groveling in Bangladesh, Kuwait, Ecuador, and all the other megagold countries. So clearly there are AVAILABILITY issues with this cache of Au and other goodies should this story be even partially true. David G's research continues and his reason for publishing the photos and documents in volumn is because it would be so hard to swallow this picture w/o substantiation.
I am going to take the liberty of posting some of David's responses to my questions:
"What became evident in my research for the book {and which continues for a follow-up} is that supplies of "black" gold had at some point in time been detached from official figures. It is not clear when this happened, but I suspect it was around the time that Rhodes and the South African mob got a strangle hold on the metal. This should not really be a surprise because we know, and have known for many years, that diamonds are not at all rare, but plentiful. It has only been the forced manipulation of supply and price by De Beers that has kept these glittering rocks from plunging in price for past decades. There is no doubt in my mind that central authorities and many others have been aware of the real quantity of gold in the world for a very long time, indeed. This is a "thread" of my current research.
It seems obvious that black gold is not permitted to form part of the official reserves and, so far as I can determine, won't- at least in any meaningful quantity. For that to happen, the contrived official figures would explode of their own accord. This would obviously reveal a deception that has been perpetrated by governments and banks for decades.
So far as the Asian countries are concerned it seems that much of this Au was owned by parties in the west to begin with.
Not only that, but the supplies of black gold do not sit idle, so far as I can ascertain. They form part of an even wider and ongoing story that forms part of my ongoing investigation.
I have never really focused on silver in my research, but I do know that very large quantities of that metal as well as stocks of platinum were plundered by the Japanese Golden Lily teams. In addition, massive quantities of diamonds and other gemstones formed part of the pickings, too.
The bottom line is that the world is not at all the way we are led to believe it is." END of DG
A few questions come to my blown-out mind. Would the gold cabal like to get their hand on some of this metal should it indeed exist {redundant Q}? All along I thought black gold was oil! Wonder what part Edmond Saffra played in this scenario? Comment from Martin Armstrong might be in order?
With this quantity of gold nefariously floating around that would mean plenty of au available for political favor, blackmail, market suppression{?}, and treasure hunts. One of my favorite parts of the book was in relation to the KGB involvement {excuse me, I mean CIA}, and the "parallel government" idea. No wonder we have so many spineless politicians! Who wants to see themselves, in a moment of ultimate fantasy, played out in the National Embarasser! Talk about losing credibility with the kids.
This book is a must read and must discuss item. Also looking for input from FOA, ORO, and the entire echelon of Forum Braintrust. It is hard to spin this gold supply in a bullish scenario but I personally don't think that much has changed as we follow the desparate maneuvers of the anti gold, and derivative creating forces. May help to explain another partial source of gold that has hit the market w/o being accounted for officially. Trail Guide, where does this trail lead??
On the Golden Trail,
auspec

auspec - thank you.

Some time ago there was already a discussion of
'Marcos Gold' here (i.e. ORO's 25765,27821, 27828)

sorry, correct #s for ORO's mess. are 25765, 25821, 25828

Even today (and tomorrow) there is a stream of black gold/diamonts (etc...)from the African and Russian continents. But, IMO, this is not affecting POG in one way or another. Simply because this black element has always existed to a limited extend.
More important to investigate is...who will influence POG today (tomorrow) ? Who will buy gold, when and for what reason ? The jewelry side, prefers the lowest possible POG.
They absorbe more goldvolume when prices decrease. Increasing POG, puts the brake on jewelry volume.
So, the price-initiative has to come from the investment side. But POG is taken hostage by today's (and yesterday's) speculators. The special liberation unit "Dollar" is not yet prepared to take action. So for the time being, we count on an external white knight (crash/war...) to clear the job, by accident. A declining POG, means, that more hostages are taken. So, speculators have to find increasingly amounts of food (derivatives) to keep them as hostages. I'm trying to seek comfort in this picture.

http://www.sundayherald.com/news/newsi.hts?section=Business&story_id=12314HEADLINE:

This article begins with an ominous note given that the balance of the article reveals the boom in new hedge fund growth:
"HEDGE funds - the very name conjures up images of George Soros making spectacular bets against sterling and the $3.6billion collapse of Long Term Capital Management which threatened the very future of the global financial system only two years ago."

The article goes on to say that the attraction with these unregulated financial entities is that, unlike the typical regulated mutual fund, these hedge funds can profit in a downward market by shorting stocks.

Iain Jenkins, editor of the trade publication 'EuroHedge' says, ""Three years ago there was no hedge fund industry in the UK. Now, people who made their money in the bull markets are putting it into hedge funds. ... Quality fund managers are leaving traditional houses to run their own hedge fund businesses because they are not hampered by too much regulation and there is much more money in it."

Explaining the reason for growing popularity of hedge funds--which now carry an estimated $1 trillion in investments--the article reports "is the increasing number of top-flight fund managers who are leaving mainstream investment companies for the more lucrative and less regulated world of hedge funds. Many "active" fund managers have become tired and frustrated with the current investment scene, which is obsessed with benchmarks and is largely risk-averse due to the ever increasing influence of "passive" tracker funds which merely mimic indices."

One UK hedge fund advisor says, "if we get in to a bear market, hedge funds will come in to their own because they can short and protect against the downside."

The article HEADLINE omitted was "Hedge funds thrive in the Euro market"

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/001103/80/ao5hm.htmlThe euro at the time was well off of its previous lows. By acting alone (without supporting activity by the Fed, BOE or BoJ,) one can not help but wonder if the ECB were not simply taking an opportunity to purge its reserves of a small quantity of its excessive and unwanted U.S. paper assets. In contrast to outright dumping, such an act would seem much more palatable to its international counterparts under the guise of intervention that was done in the spirit of the G7's September statement regarding the undervalued euro.

There has been a good deal of discussion on the forum as to whether the US dollar might weaken, or possibly die, and what, if anything, might replace it or save it, as well as the possible effects of such an event. However, there seems to be a marked tendency to rest on some rather shakey assumptions, and then, to take an isolated factor and run with it to its' (il)logical conclusion.

It would seem worthwhile to start at the beginning by first defining what money is, and what function it performs, so that a common base, and a larger picture might emerge. Economics 101 sort of stuff.

The text books list the four functions of money as;
1) It is a generally accepted medium of exchange.
2) It is a store of value
3) It is a standard of deferred payments.
4) It is a standard of values.

For purposes of this discussion, we are primarily interested in the first two, so we will deal with the last two by saying merely that money acts as a standard of values so that the comparative worth of many unlike goods and services are expressable in a common denominator; And because it acts as a store of value, it can act as a standard of deferred payments. While this is dramatically important to our banking system, it is only by implication significant in this discussion.

Within the last couple of centuries in one place or another, money has taken the form of such widely varied things as wampum, assorted stones, shells, feathers, metals, hides, and commodities ranging from tobacco, to grains or flours, pigs, cows, and brides.

The characteristics of money include;
1) GENERAL ACCEPTABILITY
2) Relative scarcity.
3) Constant value.
4) Durability.
5) Portability.
6) Divisibility.
7) Easily recognized. (cognizability).

Generally speaking, the first point is the most important. As long as a group of people somehow agree that a particular thing is acceptable as money, and freely exchange it for goods and services, then it is fulfilling the function of money. It does not matter that a bride is not very divisible, or that the latest Italian experiment is based on 1 mans guarantee, or whether a huge stone with a hole cut in the center is very portable, as long as the community effected accepts this thing as a medium of exchange and a store of value, then it is money. Signed playing cards, Indian scalps, rodent tails, and brightly colored pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents, have acted as money in North America.

So the key ingredient of money is acceptability, or the CONFIDENCE that the receiver of the medium of exchange will be able to take it to the grocers and exchange it for food. If you do not have that, you do not have a medium of exchange. It is less important that the bride is not very divisable, or that one bride may not be exactly equal to another, or that the pretty paper with pictures of dead presidents may not be very durable. However, if a thing comes along that has a better fit to the characteristics of money as described, it will normally supplant the less efficient medium.

It may be amusing to note the number of posts on this forum that said essentially, "I want the current system to survive, what ever the cost". (and make no mistake, that will be the arguement that is accepted as the rational when the authorities impose some rather draconian measures) However, that statement gives little thought to the change in the medium of exchange that is in fact now underway; to wit, a switch from bills to a digital debit card/credit card/internet payment form of money. It fits the communities needs better. It does not matter whether the changes are violent or not. In the long run it does not matter whether change is resisted or not. Change will come as the communities circumstances change, and as confidence dictates.


Take for example, the US dollar. How many trillions of dollars are floating around outside the US? Central bank reserves, trade oriented float, bills that are in daily circulation (with greater acceptance than the local fiat currency) in counties such as Columbia, Russia, and Thailand.

Now let us say that Saddams' initiative to stop using the dollar is successful and spreads. Because the US has been bebasing the currency by printing ever larger amounts of it, we have a huge stock of dollars, both inside and outside the US. At the best of times, this quantity is not scarce. If Saddam is successful in setting off a chain reaction in which oil is no longer priced in US dollars, the trade float to support the oil trade will no longer be needed. Where will these dollars go? Maybe they will be poured into the Eurodollar market, to be lent back to the US, but with the state of the overleveraged US government and corporates, it is at least likely, that they will take the route of least resistance, and be exchanged on the forex market for the holders countries currency.

This selling pressure will tend to make the US dollar fall, thus weakening confidence. As the dollar falls, it is less likely to be viewed as having constant value, and of being a storehouse of value, so more people will elect NOT to use it as a store of value, instead preferring other things such as oil, or gold, or food, in exchange for their goods and services; AND they will also deplete their previously accumulated store of value (the US dollar), so more and more US IOU's will come flooding home to roost, thus weakening the US dollar, thus weakening confidence, and thus accelerating the vicious circle.

In the meantime, within the US, what is happening? The flood of externally held US dollars is becoming an avalanche. Inflation is approaching astronomical.

Not so outside the US, where such things as central bank reserves are becoming worth less by the minute. Not to mention all those peons who have $10 or $100 tucked away under the mattress. Their store of value is being eroded quickly. If you think that the US taxpayer votes with his pocketbook in presidential elections, you ain't seen nothing as compared to a subsistence level peon who sees his entire life savings going down the tubes. He does not vote only once every 4 years, he can vote at any second of every day by trying to dump his US dollars. In short, all these "foreigners" are having a massive asset destruction. A DELATIONARY depression. And they will try to save what they can, however they can.

Now take the US government debt. As I recall the last figures I saw, the debt had an average maturity of less than 4 years, and the US borrowings were 43% offshore. Lets use 4 years, and 50% to make the numbers easy. (note this does not include ANYTHING but the official US government debt, eg no corporates, Brady bonds etc.) So, we have a 6.5 trillion dollar debt, (say 6 to make the numbers easy) divided by 4 years. That means that every year the US government has to refinance, or pay, as promised, 1.5 trillion dollars that they had just expected to roll over.

While domestically the government can force the rollover, internationally, they must either pay, or default on 3/4 of a trillion dollars of debt. While a good portion of that 3/4 of a trillion can be sopped up by the financing efforts once the dollars reach the US, the damage they do to the US in getting to their shores will be huge.


But what of the � a trillion dollars estimated as next years current account deficit? What of the exports of US companies that are now priced out of the ballpark by the falling US dollar? Will all these forces take place smoothly, or will Murphys law come into effect, and those things that can go wrong, will? What happened to Korea and its massive current account deficit? I recall seeing a picture of one of the heads of one of the chaebols(sp) who was learning to wait on tables, and was damned glad to have the job.

Then there are the previous antics of the US government around the world, some taken in the name of 'the interests of the USA,' and some taken in misguided benevolance.

There have been numerous posts on this forum saying so and so wouldn't do this or that, "because they would be shooting themselves in the foot". Even if these often uneducated people think of the consequences, do you think this matters in many parts of the world? What is there that induces Palistinians to face gunfire with rocks? They are not only being wounded, they are being killed on a 50 to 1 ratio. Is this logical? The US is not liked in some areas of the world. These people are not being reasonable, particularly in dollars and sense terms. They believe that some things are worth dying for. If they see a weakness, do you think that people like this will not capitalize on it, REGARDLESS of the cost?

Throughout history the great nations who conquered the known world, eventually fell as the price of policing these vast areas finally wore them down. Rome slowly was eaten away from the edges. At one time caravans in the middle east, and on the silk road, flew the British flag so the brigands would not attack. The brigands knew that if they did attack an actual British caravan, they were dead meat. But as the cost of policing British interests became more onerous, and more and more incidents were ignored, the brigands became bolder, and now the cost of maintaining the status quo was even greater than if Britian had simply kept policing at their previous level. So the British empire shrank to nothing. The balance of power is an ever shifting thing.

Netking (39764) posted a litany of statistics as to the depletion of the US military might in the last 8 years. Among which were the following reductions;
709,000 active duty service personnel- gone
293,000 reserve troops -gone.
20 Airforce/Navy wings and 2,000 combat aircraft -gone.
4 Aircraft carriers and 121 surface combat ships and subs -gone
Etc.
I don't know if these figures are accurate, but the question must be asked, "does the US have the capacity to police the world as it once did?"


Despite the propaganda fed to the American people, much of the world saw the Vietnamese war as the US getting booted out of Vietnam. What was the next event in the chain? A whole lot of pipsqueek nations nationalized US interests, particularly in the oilpatch. Would they have dared before Vietnam? Did the US protect US commercial interests? Did the US do much of ANYTHING about it? Today there are any number of tin puppets defying the US. Saddam and Fidel should have been squashed like a bug. Why not? This is not to say that the US is to be trifled with lightly. But it does say that the US as omnipotent world policeman is in some doubt.

When you are at the top of the power cycle, you can do pretty much as you damn please. If you are not, then other considerations come into the equation. And don't count on what you did for me yesterday, or your past glories. That is not how the world works. Russia was a great power. Where is it today?


So we come back to confidence. Confidence is eroding about many things US. Unfortunately, it is the tendency of humanity to think, if they are bad about this, they will be bad about that, regardless of whether they will or not. It is also the way of the world that, when any weakness is PERCIEVED, the whole pack will turn on the PERCIEVED weakness.

There are many other things that will impact our world in the near future, which have not been dealt with here. Technological change will have a massive effect on society as we know it. So will disease, overpopulation, declining resources, the list goes on.

As to money, FIAT money has been being debased around the world. People are getting increasingly cynical. Confidence is an act of faith, cynical does not have any place in faith. There is no inherent reason that a particular piece of paper should be worshiped, and even if there were, confidence and faith are not rational.

When will confidence reach the point of no return? Personally I think it passed that point some time ago. You are familiar with the story of the frog, who when touched with a drop of hot water, moved quickly, but who, when placed in a pan of water that was heated slowly, 1 degree at a time, stayed until he died. There was a point where if he was removed from the water, he would have died anyway, but he was not dead yet. I think we are at that point. I wonder if bill HR4541 indicates that SOME of the powers that be think so to.


What do we run to? What do we do? I wouldn't be here if I did not believe that gold was not at least part of the answer. I may not believe that it is the whole answer, and frankly, I do not. Some people have said realestate. In local terms, the municipalities have massive debts, and the ability, nay the obligation, to seize real estate for unpaid levies. Assume that personal incomes drop by 50%, as they have in Japan. Is everybody going to be able to pay the taxes, and the mortgage? Will a flood of forced sale homes hit the market? What will this do to realestate prices? Do I want to buy now or after the municipalities go bankrupt and their debts are written off? (and thus there is no need to tax or seize) Of course, wholly owned, already discounted land such as forced (eg tax) sale land may be another question.

Nor do I see some types of debt as necessarily bad. It could be used as a lever against you, but it might also get lost in all the other bad debt around.

Does this sound like Y2K to me? A bit, but not entirely.

Frankly, I am somewhat anti GATA. If the US dollar becomes nothing, then we will be counting our profits in golds, not dollars. The longer gold stays down in US dollar, or any other Fiat terms, the more chance I have to accumulate more golds. I am not counting my profit if the price of gold goes up, I am counting a loss.

It is easy to read this post as an attack on all things US. It is not. It is an attempt to describe the situation accurately, and accuracy says that while many other countries have the same disease, they do not really matter because of the sheer size and importance of the US.

As Aristotle says; Gold get you some.

How sure are we that Clinton didn't veto this legislation to save his own neck?

The leaves are falling along the trail and the squirrels are furiously gathering nuts for the hard times ahead. We hard asset advocates are performing a similar exercise, but is it a path with heart? Is this indeed an exercise in survival, or a transition to a clearer day when mankind is not so entralled with the concept of personal wealth in the form of money. What are we truly worth if we lose the goodwill of our fellow beings. To be sure, if there is a catastrophic collapse, those that show up flush with the shiny yellow stuff will not be loved but will be dealt with on their own terms out of necessity. Let us pause and examine what true wealth is.

For me, although I hold physical, I cherish most my interactions with my fellow man that build frienship. Imagine if you will, a world without money. What would people be doing? Why the same things they do now but only those things which actually produce something of value. That store of value would be liquidated and shared or exchanged with loved ones just as it is now, but without our silent partner.

We have all been given the gift of a soul. Whether we accept it and engage the task of strengthening it, or we reject it in pursuit of worldly things is the choice we have been given.

Which path is the right path for today...forever? Does time really factor into a decision such as this? Even the worst of us may at a moments notice turn to face the Almighty without fear. For it is in the turning that the path is set. Which path has heart? It is for each of us to decide. The answer can be found somewhere between becoming self aware and becoming aware of the self. The path less travelled has many beginnings but no end. In the pursuit of truth the acquisition of physical gold is not in any way wrong. It is never what you have that matters the most, but what you do with it.

I cast this message upon the stormy waters before us. It is there for those boats that follow to pick up and read. My only request is that having once read it, you place it back into its vessel and cast it loose for another who follows our path.

See you at the final destination...if not before.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,392517,00.htmlOttmar Issing said Friday "The ECB confirms its view that the external value of the euro does not reflect the favourable conditions of the euro area," and elaborated on the single-handed nature of the forex operation, "We have not invited the authorities of other currencies to join the intervention."

Currency strategists can say what they like about the intervention, but when you get down to it, how else can a central bank rid itself of dollars accumulated under an international financial structure that is now on the way out? You will recall that the ECB has already proclaimed that all dollar-denominated interest earned on its dollar-denominated reserves would no longer be retained as dollar reserves. They are indeed cashing out. And for obvious reasons their hands are tied regarding the gold issue, so they must at the present time be content with using their dollar assets to buy euro assets. If you can grasp this fundamentally new structure, you will see how gold shall beyond doubt reveal itself as the supreme personal and international reserve asset at a higher valuation that few can now comprehend.

As it seems to me and if I may add two grams`to the debate, speculation about vast treasues of looted gold have been resurfacing throughout history - King Solomon, Aztec Gold, WWII Nazi Gold etc. - That is part of the fascination gold always throughout history held for man.

And it's also little surprising, that these kind of stories resurface with some regularity in times, when all the reasons and fundamental factors for a much higher POG become so compelling, that all sorts of dark conspiracies and sinister powers,aiming at a NWO of Illuminati are dragged from their closets, to explain the seemingly unreasonable inaction or even as the case may be totally unexplainable market action. In the case of gold, the supply/demand equation and other equally important factors would point to a much higher POG by now for years.

As much I would wish to have seen the gold markets turning positive, as fundamentals would have suggested for too long a time, my rationalization makes me believe it is not so much sinister forces, but the massive vested interests of the $/IMF/(BIS?) faction, in their quest to prolong the system of floating currencies and the hegemony of the US$, in view of twin deficits, the credit and financial asset bubble and the disproportionately ballooning financial service industry, BB's and the even larger derivative monsters.

As gold is inherently a political metal - since it's money - the politcal angle is and was always a factor, as our American friends can sadly testify. Yes - there are massive interests today from major players to keep the POG in check, though do we have to resort to Orwellian nightmares, even if I'm often tempted too, though, the overblown paper gold market is probably the more rational explanation and may even be in its final phase of self-destruction. Politics may be the greater irrational part to
gold's predicament.

I don't in any way want to belittle DG, who certainly has excellent credentials, but I do feel that the global production statistics have been pretty accurate over a long period of time (say 150y's), when about 2/3 of all "estimated" above ground gold has been mined, while gold produced from ancient times to the 1800's can reasonably accurately be derived from studying old mines and the avaible extraction methods.

Sorry for spoiling the fun - cb2

PS: Mr. Gresham, - bingo - part of the family has lived for generations between Fiume and Trieste, though now it is the Vienna Woods..

PPS: Marius - tku for the light-felt slap - It's only my name
rhymes to riddle.

The cork is back in. Your gift has been duly returned to the sea.

Yes! Exactly! But this will happen only once the CBs either run out of gold or if they believe they cannot afford to sell or lease it anymore.

Very interesting article about the recent decimation of Prince Al-Waleed's technology stock portfolio

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2000/11/05/stibusnws03007.html

It appears the prince established an amazing pyramid scheme of investments, and he is now trying to prevent collapse in the pyramid.

A current owner of some $1 billion of AOL stock, last week, he announced he would invest $1 billion more in AOL stock, and the announcement alone caused AOL stock to jump about 20%, as mindless investors dove in to the stock without considering the potential meaning of the Prince's announcement.

Of course, if the man were really interested in buying AOL stock, then why would he PRE-announce his intentions to the world? That makes no sense at all, and one can only assume that he is trying to defend the value of his current huge stake in AOL (now very much underwater) that most likely forms the bedrock of his entire high tech portfolio. Maybe if AOL stock drops below a certain point, he gets hit with margin calls that could trigger problems in other tech stock holdings? Do not be surprised if problems with Al-Waleed's tech stock portfolio ultimately result in AOL stock falling off a cliff someday.

With respect to Al-Waleeds patently illogical announcement concerning AOL, one is reminded of the Bank of England's PRE-announcment of gold sales, with said announcement designed to drive the price of gold lower, thus confirming that the BOE's goal in selling gold is NOT profit maximization but rather gold price miminization (for the benefit of heavily short bullion bank cronies of the British government).

Thanks

F*

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1008000/1008512.stmBBC HEADLINE: Entrepreneur issues euro threat

This type of "voting power" is a force in ecomomics that is akin to the force of gravity in physics, causing mountains to crumble into the sea.

The article begins: "Maverick entrepreneur James Dyson has reopened business's battle of the euro by threatening to switch investment to the Far East unless the UK joins the single currency."

Wade into the stream and pan for gold as this mountain is washed away.

Me from the cold, rainy sewer-shoveling rockpile:

You are all being unusually brilliant this weekend -- what's going on?!?

Getting past the Election blahs should offer a national pick-me-up. By the way, I decided this week who I'm going to vote for, and it is a vote against Cynicism, my cynical side anyway. So I will be able at least to look in the mirror for a few more years on that score. Good luck, all, in your choices. (Your expressions here have helped me choose NOT to be Cynical.)

(Now, someone please put in a good word FOR Cynicism. Equal time.)

Just a few comments re The Secret Gold Treaty:
1- This issue has been discussed to a degree as relates to Marcos on 2-22-00 forum and vicinity.
2- Imelda obviously had more gold than shoes.
3- There should be no doubt about the existence of black gold, only the quantity and availability are in question.
4- There is probably not one person on Earth that fully knows how much black gold exists. Thus all the conflicting OPINIONS.

Is this not a fascinating market in which we dwell??

To BE is to DO,-Jean Paul Sartre; to DO is to BE, Frederich Nietsche; Do Be Do Be Dobedo, Frank Sinatra

You are exactly right. I am of the opinion that Clinton wouldn't do anything unless he expected to benefit somehow. One more reason why Al (the Antichrist) Gore can't be elected...so there will be no presidential pardon.

Your msg#: 40623 was beautiful! I copied it to my personal archives so I can "pop the cork and take a sip from time to time". And just in time too as my boat was sunk last night because some of the crew insisted on voting their conscience as per my msg#: 40593.

My philosophy eggs-zacly! Especially after surviving Existentialism and depressing Euro-trash pre-suicidal hashing life down to a... never mind. We're Americans, right?

Until they build a better windmill, amigo, yours...
(formerly known as Ceesco to some...) Sr. G

j-Bear, a truly fine post. Clearly elucidating the very problem we seem to be confronting re: the $. Thanks for taking the time to share.

Randy, I feel I've been remiss by not addressing you sooner. Glad to see you're back from your journeys and no worse for the wear I presume. I see from your flurry of posts you're still comfortably on top of your game!

Spartacus233fe
~"I think Al Gore will win and I'll tell you why. The majority
of Americans are adulterers, liars and crooks and Clinton-Gore
have made them feel good about themselves." -Marcella by email on
Fox News Channel, November 5, 2000, 5:55pm

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I don't necessarily agree about the majority of Americans. But
the quote is sure cute.

Sir Marius, you say:

"I think Bush will win in a convincing manner, and so I will feel free to cast my vote for the Libertarians."

I would like to make a few comments about your statement:

1) I fully endorse your right to cast your vote in the direction of your choice for any reason you may choose however logical or illogical your reason might be.
2) I think the logic of your decision to vote for the Libertarians is quite sound if I understand you correctly. I understand you to say that, if you thought Bush had a chance of losing, you would cast your vote for him in a New York minute and the reason that you feel free to vote Libertarian is that, you would rather vote on principle rather than to chose between the lesser of two evils given the option. In other words you think your vote may make a difference in the New York senatorial race but that it will not make a difference in the presidential race. If I am reading your statements incorrectly please forgive.
3) I strongly disagree with you in the opinion that Bush will win convincingly. I base my opinion upon my own personal conversations with a broad spectrum of people with whom I am in contact. I find that virtually all who call themselves Democrats intend to vote for Gore. They offer a myriad of reasons for their leanings but they all have one thing in common - they are died in the wool democrats. I find that many who call themselves Independents intend to vote for Gore also. These have many of the same reasons that the Democrats offer. The most frequent reason offered is that all the good that is now transpiring in the U.S. will come to an end, ie. Social Security and Medicare will be jeopardized, big business and the wealthy will be favored at the expense of the so middle class the poor will be abandoned, the so called surplus will evaporate in favor of the dangerous deficits of the '80's, the economy will fizzle, inflation will resurface, human rights and civil rights will fade, ad infinitum. What I am hearing is that the status quo has become the great desire in this country. People who have subsidy after subsidy available to them, people who are beholding to the government for their jobs and their monthly cash flows, people who are not disgruntled by their current tax situations, people who know that they could not get as much in the form of redistributed funds from the government with a Bush in the place of a Gore plan to cast their votes to protect that which they now have. These voters are in fear of losing what they perceive to be their divine rights. The negative message from the Gore campaign has been bought, not out of ignorance but out of intelligence. These people know that a Bush presidency would endanger the free flow of redistributed funds into their pockets. These people are not as ignorant as we hold them to be. The big problem is that they outnumber those who would prefer to be left alone to fend for themselves by a very large margin.

I will give you a cross section of the people who will be voting for Gore:

1) Teachers and those who derive their livelihood from the public education system in the U.S.
2) Government employees, bureaucrats and quasi-government employees (postal workers, IRS agents, social workers, employees of the ATF, FBI, CIA, EPA, city, county and state road and highway departments etc.
3) Employees of companies who are in need of government procurements to exist
4) Union workers who depend upon the mandated "prevailing wage" requirements of the government procurement contracts which subcontract work to them and a markup
5) Those who are currently receiving social security checks, SSI checks, disability checks, medicare entitlements, Food Stamps, Housing subsidies, medicaid checks, aid to dependent children checks, WIC vouchers, agriculture subsidies, and so forth. The list would seem to be endless.
6) Those who are within a couple of years of retirement and will soon be drawing Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlements.

I am sure that the above listing could be greatly expanded by many of those who contribute to this forum and by the many lurkers who read what is here offered.

Now I am fully aware that there are some who would say: - "I am on social security but will be voting for Bush, or I am a teacher but will be voting for Bush, or I am farmer with certain subsidies but will be voting for Bush." You will miss the point with that position for you see, if you meet any of these descriptions, you are in a very small minority I can assure you.
The point is that these variously entrapped folk greatly outnumber those who would desire to never to be in their position. The point is that the only way that the status quo has ever been rejected is after it has exposed itself to be a very undesirable condition. That has not yet transpired. The voter in general is a short-term voter. The voter in general will gladly 'pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today'. We have a system whereby the administration in power will either derive credit for the benefit, which generates from the good policies of the previous administration or suffer the blame for the bad policies of the previous administration. Woe unto the man who gets credit for all that the Clinton administration has prepared for us. I do not envy the winner of this election. We do have this one consolation: - should Gore win this election, he will have to carry the derision, which should be shared with Clinton. If Bush should win the election the liberals will also have the same consolation: - Bush will surely be blamed for the heinous policies of the Clinton/Gore administration.

I cringe at the thought of finding out in the late evening of November 7, 2000 or in the wee hours of November 8, 2000, that Al Gore will be the new president of the United States, Hillary Clinton will be the new senator of the great State of New York, and that Mrs. Mel Carahan will be the new senator of the Wonderful State of Missouri.

The lesser of several evils will have occurred and I will be inclined to hunker down.

Respectfully,

HBM

It would be quite accuate to re-phrase that to "If it wern't for the plurality of Americans who are adulterers, liars and crooks that Clinton-Gore have made feel good about themselves, Gore would not even be a candidate.

HBM: I hope everyone who reads your post, takes it to heart and acts accordingly. Otherwise, we will indeed need to hunker down!

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/573GATA Chairman Bill Murphy appeals for help
in suing the Bank for International
Settlements as the best litigation for
exposing the anti-gold cabal.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/574Reginald H. Howe, a BIS shareholder,
provides a legal analysis of the bank's
plan to expropriate its private
shareholders.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

Sir:

I'll bet that I can guess what you are doing at this very moment!

# 40637 - The last sentance should read, "The lesser of several evils will not have occurred and I will be inclined to hunker down.

hbm

Periodic Ponzi Update Nasdaq 3,451.58 + Dow 10,817.95 = 14,269.53 divide by 2 = 7,134.76 Ponzi

Up 200.27 Ponzi points from last week.

$hifty

My .02 FRNs, leaving out the mea culpas.

The issue at an election time is citizenship. When voters, whether "liberal" or "conservative" make calculations based on "pocketbook" issues, they are not putting citizenship first.

You go to work, not to the voting booth, to earn money.

This distinction is so far from the field of public discussion today, that it seems both strange to hear it, and strange to have to mention it.

But it would be my foremost formulation that Society exists wrapped around the Economy, and not to be contained within it. (That's why they first called Economics "Political Economy") (And I do despair somewhat of my neighboring humans ever being able to get that wrapping done right.)

That Society can make rules to limit the functioning and effects of the Economy, but that those rules should wisely consider the always-being-discovered "laws" of Economics. And that those who have in our history proposed to do so have perverted, hijacked, and contorted the process and mistaken their few sincere efforts at doing so. But that it is still necessary to apply our best efforts to such citizenship. The process exists, and is a worthwhile endeavor. Not a resignation to "the invisible hand." (GE -- $450 billion of invisibility? Hah!)

My shortest retort to a criticism of this is that I wish you Libertarians would teach Economics to Liberals. And we'll all get together for further discussion when they've acquired a passing grade in Microeconomics 102. Until then, I grant you we're in the hands of well-meaning or cynical idiots who waste our labors and warp our attempts to be good citizens in a corrupt system.

Not much consolation, or counsel, on an Election Eve, but I wish you well, and good conscience.

Enough.

A few days late!I recieved a card for Halloween . It was late but I thought it was a good one.
It said:

It's that time of year when evil lurks around every corner....... when slimy , loathsome creatures appear at your door , and they all want something from you....





Your Vote !
Happy Halloween


$hifty

Ref todays post # 40620:
Friday's Forex intervention by the ECB on behalf of the Euro.

This may seem like a dumb question but if the ECB can strengthen or weaken its own currency, any time they feel like it, why don't all those other countries with currencies steadily losing value in relation to the U.S. dollar, strengthen their currencies when they want to? Or does G-7 control currency valuations for everyone else?
I personally think there is a lot more, lets call it what it really is, "Manipulation of Currency Value" going on then the press releases convey.....beesting.

An attempt to honor Mr. Gresham's request:

An Economic lesson to all liberals: - Never, never make rules to limit the functioning and effects of the Economy. We are not intelligent enough let alone wise enough to do so without perverting the process.

Respectfully,

hbm

A very thought-provoking and well done movie, with lots of food for thought. It's called "Dark Prince, The True Story of Dracula." Excellent actually. Definitely not what I expected.

I don't like many flicks, but this one struck me as well worth the two hours (including commercial messages.) It comes complete with priviliged nobles who loot the common folks, and Dracula as . . . no, you'll just have to see it for yourself.

The movie was broadcast on USA Network, and they have the habit of rebroadcasting such a movie several times. Don't wait too long though.

Regards,
Journeyman

Randy
I share your opinion that the ECB divested unwanted assets at a favorable exchange rate.
Goldsun

I believe the answer would be that most nations don't have they buying power to wage an intervention.

.Having read some of the comments on this site tonight, I just had to mention that I have also spent time today reading various political forums to get a feel for things in general.....something besides the media polls for once.

Some of the "brain-child" comments that struck me right between the eyes were:

"I think I'll stick with Clinton again, at least I know his weaknesses"

"Is Colin Powell running as as a Democrat or Republican ?"

"I voted for Ross (Perot) last time.....probably will again this time too"

"I registered as an Electoral voter......."


In all due respect to those out there who DO manage to use their grey matter for something more than keeping their heads from collapsing (medical term - terminal vacancy of the cranium), we might not want to give too much credit to the average Joe in this dumbed-down society of ours. How many out there do you REALLY think will be voting on the real issues, or for that matter even have a clue what those might be ?

God help us if we should ever under estimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.........!

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/05/tracking.poll/...
..
.
Latest Presidential Polls (all) shown at CNN website.
[snip]
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/05/tracking.poll/

Bush Gore
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 48% 43%
ABC News 49 45
Washington Post 48 46
NBC/Wall St. Journal 47 44
CBS News 46 44
MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby 46 44

[unsnip]

My experience with Polls, over the past several elections,
is that the liberal/conspiratorial media always tends to
skew their reported polls by a factor of 4-points favoring
their prefered candidate, and skews the unfavored candidate
a similar 4-points in the opposite/downward direction.

Hence, in todays case, where they show Gore at 43%,
it's really only 39%; and Bush's 48% is really 52%.

Do the same interpolation for all of the above polls.

You can verify this skewing simply enough, just make
a note of the latest polls *before* the election, then
compare them to the actual election results, later.

If you go back in time and do it for 1960, 1964, 1968,
1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, and 1996 you will see a
very similar skewing pattern emerges.

ThaiGold

.Good point sir ! Let's see how close this works on Tuesday. Using those poll numbers with the formula, Bush should take the popular vote by an 11 percent spread over Gore.

No inflation?

I have a client (Coin-operated Laundry) who posted the following notice to customers:

Due to the City of Potosi increasing natural gas prices by 25% our drying time is now 25 cents for 7 1/2 minutes.

The previous price was 25 cents for 10 minutes.

Any one care to calculate the % increase in price by the Laundry facility. My client got away with this without a single complaint.

Respectfully,

hbm

Economic lesson # 2 to all liberals: - Deceptive pricing will work only in the short run. Mr. Keynes say, " In the long run we are all dead. Mr. Wong say, "I'd rather be dead than red."

hbm

http://www.SelectSectors.com/gldind.gif This chart-link, on a percentage basis,
compares the XAU, CRB, Comex-Gold and FSAGX.
The tail end of this chart shows the US Dollar
Index is declining, the CRB and XAU heading Up.
This decline has been Nasty, but this could be
the time to start scaling Up.

Attn: Hill Billy Mitchell (11/05/00; 20:33:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 40653)...
..
.
HBM:
I'm not very good at math, but I'll try your challenge:

[Minutes Decrease Calculation]
Previous = 10 minutes
New = 7.5 minutes
Difference = 2.5 minutes less drying time for same 25-cents
Divide previous (10) by difference (2.5) = 4
Divide 1.00 by 4 = 25 percent

[Time Per 25-Cents Calculation]
Previous is (.25) divided by (10) = $0.025 per minute.
New is (.25) divided by (7.5) = $0.03333 per minute.
Difference = (0.033) minus (0.025) = $0.008
Divide previous (0.025) by difference (0.008) = 3.125
Divide 1.00 by 3.125 = 32 percent.

[Dry a Full Load (60 minutes) Calculation]
Previously required 6ea quarters (6 x .25) = $1.50
New requires 8ea quarters for same 60 minutes = $2.00
Difference = $0.50
Divide difference ($0.50) by previous ($1.50) = 0.3333
Multiply 100 by .3333 = 33 percent.

Is this Fuzzy Math; Hyper Inflation; or What.?.

Methinks your client was justified, regardless of method.

ThaiGold

Thanks for lessons 1&2, and no supply/demand curve charts to study either!

"Never, never make rules to limit the functioning and effects of the Economy."

I guess #3 would be "Ignore the existence whenever and wherever of Monopoly or Oligopoly, for it is ultimately self-correcting. Whatever is done to ameliorate its effects is worse than the problem."

You would have to go to cases there, and readers can think of their own for now. I'm too rusty on it to trot out the cases that left me with my lingering impressions of worthwhile regulation. Children used to go down in the mines with their f... oops, must be the two flea collars on my dog and cat all week and they are still scratching, so it's gotten me in one o' them dagnabby moods. Sorry.

I think what is missing from studies on both sides is addressing Power, as it actually exists in the world, in our country and our lifetimes. Most of us have been Totally on the outside and cannot speak from experience, complete naifs.

We see, or at least suspect, how the gold game has been played by people who have no philosophy of politics or political economy except to "tear the other guy's face off", Wall Street-ese for you making more bucks than would even surprise you yourself to make. Did I convey that right?

It is several orders of magnitude beyond our conversational back-and-forths. We are less than children in their eyes.

How could we feel like other than huge suckers being run by the likes of those? "Liberal" and "conservative" is just something for us to chew our cuds on while they run us like cattle.

I had no idea my remarks would stimulate so much discussion. I always feel a bit self-conscious, thinking it might be viewed by management as off topic. It's for that reason my posts on the subject may have been more brief than some might like.

I've been debating for some time about posting an excerpt from a book that illustrates why some of us Libertarians feel there will be little difference between a Bush or a Gore administration, to the obviously sincere incredulity of HBM (among others). It's rather long, and I've had trouble paring it down to an acceptable length without robbing it of it's power. I haven't been well in the recent past, and long spells at the computer haven't been possible.

I promise to make a greater effort at this during the early part of the week, and we'll see how it plays. I'm not trying to win last minute converts prior to the election; merely trying to elucidate a principle that I have some difficulty expressing on my own.

As for HBM's speculation re: my last post, in which I said I believed Bush will win convincingly. I'd love to give you hard, well-reasoned arguments, but it's embarrassingly subjective. Here goes!

Those of you who are old enough to recall--in 1980 polls had Carter and Reagan in a similarly close race. Reagan, in terms of electoral votes, wound up just destroying Carter in an overwelming victory. It was at that point I began believing the pundits who were screaming "media bias". The bottom line: I think the polls are even more cooked than the CPI numbers. You can get them to say almost anything you want if you fudge the sample & the questions properly, and the mainstream media is clearly in the Gore camp.

With the exception of a couple of minor flubs, Bush has run a much more "high road" campaign than Gore has. One would have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to see the contrast. What else explains the sleazy last-minute desperation of the Gore campaign? He's so obviously more genuine than Gore's surreal parody of a humanoid, that I guess I can't imagine anyone who hasn't already made up their mind voting Gore. (Caveat: I saw Neil Bush on one of the Sunday talkies, and THIS is the Bush to kick some Presidential butt when W retires! Impressive package.)

Finally, it seems like Bush is more secure than Gore with his base. It really seems like it is a question of turnout. The Dems seem dispirited, while the Repubs are fired up. They have a right to be. Bush HAS run a good campaign, has some shrewd strategists advising him, and clearly has some good people likely to serve in his admistration.

Aside to HBM: your summary of my logic re: Bush/Gore, and Lazio/Clinton is pretty accurate. As I've stated here before, I don't consider a vote for a non-Republicrat a wasted vote: there are things other than victory that can be accomplished by minority parties. Permanent ballot status is one of them. Make no mistake, I am a large L, card-carrying Libertarian, and I get nauseous when I hear someone try to convince me that Bush is an opponent of big government! What he is is a far more honest and decent human being than Gore.

It's late, I'm fading fast, but I will be back as early in the week as I can with the abovementioned post. Nightie night!

M

Sir,

You have illustrated very clearly the point I wanted to make.

My question: How many customers do you think would go to all that work to determine whether he was going to pay the new price or go out and buy or rent a clothes dryer. Take into consideration the fact that this Coin-operated laundry is the only one in town (small town).

What we have is the typical confusion between markup %age and gross profit %age. Markup %age is the markup divided by the cost. The gross profit %age is the markup divided by the selling price. Let us equate the old price per minute with the cost and the new price per minute with the selling price.

Old price per minute = .25 divided by 10 = 2.5 cents per minute

New price per minute = .25 divided by 7.5 = 3.33 cents per minute

Change in price = 3.33 cents per minute minus 2.5 cents per minute = .83 cents per minute

Markup percentage = .83 divided by 2.5 = .33% price increase

Gross profit percentage = .83 divided by 3.33 = 25% gross profit increase

The battle for survival in an inflationary world is illustrated as follows:

Owner has a minimum price of 4 quarters to start the dryer. This equates to a minimum cost of $1.00 per load with an estimated drying time of 40 minutes.

Now these young housewives who have to watch each penny are quick to discover that 5 quarters give them 37 1/2 minutes whereas 6 quarters will give them 45 minutes. They will try to cut the drying time short saving a quarter because 45 minutes is more time than required to dry the clothes. This would convert the cost per load to 25% the exact same increase in price to the laundry owner. Otherwise 6 quarters for 45 minutes to dry a load would result in an increase to the housewife of 50%.

One other note: If the housewife can get by with the 25% increase by cutting short the drying time by 2 1/2 minutes the true cost increase vs price increase is favorable to the laundry owner because while the price increase is 25 cents or 25% the cost increase is less than 25% due to the fact that his cost of gas is based on 2 1/2 less minutes for the 25 cent increase. Sort of reminds you of the smaller candy bar for the same price tactic that has been used in the past to disguise the extent of price increases.

All this would be rather boring were it not for the fact that it gives us a small picture of the various battles for survival between buyer and seller during times of currency devaluation. This cost push form of inflation is soon to be followed by demand pull when labor gets into the battle. This will be too big for almighty Alan G. He could have handled it in 1995 when inflation could be contained without bursting an inordinately large bubble. It is only a matter of time.

Sir ThaiGold, you be da maan! A lot of fuzzy math will be flying back and forth before the dust settles on the coming inflation.

Respectfully,

hbm

http://wgst.com/jacor-common/ic/entertainment-story-9.htmlNEW YORK, Oct 31, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- -- Website to Help Companies Fulfill Demanding New Derivative Rules --

PricewaterhouseCoopers and Gifford Fong Associates announced today the launch of Solution133.com(TM), an interactive resource of information and tools that allows companies to address the valuation, accounting and reporting requirements of FAS 133 (Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 133, "Accounting for Derivative Investments and Hedging Activities").

More at link:

$hifty

Mr Gresham # 40657

Sir, you are a true gentleman. You could have been much harder on me. Thanks for not taking off the gloves.

I can see that we could never come to agreement in this area. I am too idealistic and you are too pragmatic.

You are wrong about lesson # 3 however.

Economic lesson # 3 to all liberals: - Government welfare should be limited to investment in garbage trucks for the sole purpose of hauling off the dead bodies of those who starve for lack of work. One truck should do it. This is not original to me however I am in full agreement.

Sir please do not take lesson # 3 as directed to you. It is directed only to liberals. However extreme the position might be it is not nearly as extreme as the liberal position at the opposite end of the spectrum. To be at the opposite end of the spectrum from the liberal position is a very comfortable position for me. Judy Davis says there is a special hell for fence sitters and I do not ever want to be accused of being a fence sitter.

Last post, dog-tired.

Respectfully,

hbm

As Black Blade said in:

Black Blade (02/22/00; 00:45:37MDT - Msg ID:25806)
Philipines and stolen WWII gold.
There are gold mines in the Philippines with an active exploration and mining industry. Until recently, one of the largest commercial operations was PDG's Marcopper Mine. There are several shanty towns built around several gold deposits worked by artisanal miners. This of course could not account for such large hoards of gold as reported by ORO and others. There are also stories of Toshidas(?) Gold. General Toshida, the Japanese commander during WWII safeguarded the gold acquired by Japanese forces throughout Asia. The gold was stolen from the governments of conquered Asian countries and from religious shrines. During the latter part of the war General Toshida had his military engineers bury gold in several locations as the allies drew closer to the Philippines. Reportedly he had several POW's and Filipinos building the tunnels to bury the gold. He had them killed along with the engineers to keep the locations secret. He had also tried to ship out gold on freighters, however, most were sunk. Much of that gold was recovered by US Naval forces. Occasionally some of Toshida's gold is found by treasure hunters. As for Toshida, he was hanged as a war criminal after the war, and refused to disclose the whereabouts of the gold. Rumor has it that Marcos and some of his friends found some of this gold and that he came to power because of financing made possible from his share of Toshida's Gold. Anyway that is the story.
- end of Black Blade's message

According to the stories, I heard in The Philippines, Marcos would have found only 20% of the hidden gold. The rest would still be in the barangays, the villages, all over the country and under the control of the barangay captains. The Marcos gold is thus out of the country.

In Manila, I also met an 80 years old retired attorney who sold the gold through the 'highly confidential' 'Capital Enhancement Program' (whatever that may be) of the US federal government. He was selling gold from his warehouse with a minumum of 1,000 metric tonne. He was able to deliver 500 tonnes per week. He would thus be richer than the Philippine government.

FWIW
The Invisible Hand
migrator@www.cz

Can anyone tell me what is the point of ECB spending a meager 1 billion recently to buy Euro in exchange for US, thereby reducing the stock of Euro in other holders hands. For any holders of cash equivalent, the choice is US$, Yen (no interests), gold (prices keep on dropping through manipulation) and Euro. Isn��t it much simpler for ECB to squeeze gold against the US$ which they can achieve by mere words through the withholding of rollovers on gold leasing.

The US$ would not depreciate against any other currency because they have too large a market share of a holder��s portfolio, including ECB��s own FX currencies. If the US$ depreciates against gold and all the manipulator��s can do is to dump more paper. The world��s sharks will smell blood and apply the biggest short squeeze of mankind since the more people buy against the naked shorts, the more money will the shorts loose. The paradigm shift is because Central Banks on this occasion will not stand ready to release more gold because of a rise of POG. The US and IMF cannot sell because of the US Congress. As US$ goes down, Japan & the rest of Asia will automatically reallocate to Euro and oil in Euro will become cheaper.

Book of Revelation 3:17-18 says �� You say, 'I am rich; I have acquired wealth and do not need a thing.' But you do not realize that you are wretched, pitiful, poor, blind and naked. I counsel you to buy from me gold refined in the fire, so you can become rich; and white clothes to wear, so you can cover your shameful nakedness; and salve to put on your eyes, so you can see.��
View Yesterday's Discussion.

I have not read David Guyatt's book, but I do recognize a few obvious items and a couple of packages with dubious manifests.

Parallel government is obvious. The ironing out of legislative details and the arbitrary nature of applying rules and regulations (yes, it can only be arbitrary - I have talked this one to death) rules out the bulk of the people from participating in the process of government in any meaningful way at the Federal level and to a lesser extent at the State level. The small are to be breaded first, then fried, or served with Cajun spices on the grill. Why should anyone listen to them? Democracy? A simple statistical analysis will reveal that "whole" and disintermediated democracy is completely unworkable, as most will suffer because of their being in a minority on at least one issue of vital concern to them, which would quickly lead to rioting if the kind of statutes that can pass a popular vote are implemented.
Representative forms bring forth the question of whom it is that is represented. Dilution of representation at the Federal level and even the State and Municipal level in large population States and cities means that the Reps are more attune with the people they deal with daily - lobbyists, sponsors, bureaucrats - than with voters. More so when it is to be considered that the voters are widely conflicted in their interests, and often do not understand these interests anyway.

The bulk of the legislation and its regulatory application is driven by the calculus of quid-pro-quo. I have explained it before, and suggest going back to some of these old posts.

As for unaccounted gold, there never was an official claim of a complete accounting. Some exploration in historic gold mines that have had some tens of thousands of tonnes mined, reveals that the core veins were pilfered by small teams of bootleg miners long before official operations started. Often they were running parallel operations in the same mine. Just go and read some exploration reports from the dozens of them now posted on the net, and if they don't state outright that this has occurred, they will go into details of how inefficient the old operations were, which brings us to the possible, if not inevitable, parallel mining by local toughs and even by the company's own operators, keeping for themselves a portion of the mine's output.

The Japanese heist of gold in Asia in various forms of "Golden Lily" just put some of the unofficial gold in the kind of high concentrations one can keep track of. The mass murder of tens of thousands of their own people in a number of well known "mysterious" Japanese military (Navy actually) disasters at the end of the war indicates that something of great non-military importance was of so much greater importance that significant military assets were destroyed in order to keep it safe. Few things are that important. Enormous stashes of gold are.

The Japanese treasure that was "reported" to have been recovered slowly by Marcos from the 60s on through the late 70s and then very quickly in what may have been a 60000 tonne supply in the late 70s and early 80s, would go a long way towards explaining what transpired in the gold price at the time. The final distribution of this gold throughout the official and private banking systems and their clientele would have been a slow process. If gold were used in the support of the dollar through this period in the 80s, then the momentum of confidence in paper gold could well have continued later. It should be noted that a full liability private banking system operates in parallel to the official and regulated one used for the bulk of currency and trade transactions. There are no annual reports, no SEC or CFTC filings, and the only means for the participants to maintain normal operations are through reputation and trust. When some do not operate in the spirit of trust placed in them, they are "disappeared" sometimes verepublicly. I don't know this from inside information, but I can come up with no economic rationale that could exist without this parallel system, of which little is heard, and all participants would prefer to keep quiet.

If US banker's dollar was backed by this Yamashita gold during the period 1980-199(?) then there would be no question of a paper gold system running amuck after the gold was gone for the most part. Meaning that the private gold banking system had used all its gold to the point of having hit liquidity limits and having to tap into the official sector for cover. Particularly sending the less connected to paper and then stabilizing the private system through the raid of the gold reserves of the official banking system. Note that banks do not publish any data at all regarding their gold accounts. The facilities of the official banking system are necessary for the operation of the private parallel system, since without a connection there would be no direct transfer mechanism to the currency world and no liquidity. Settlement, would have been slow and would have closed the private banks down without the bridge into regular banking.

Considering all we know of circumvention of official systems, I would say that a 200,000 tonne gold stock would be quite conservative, particularly if the recovered Japanese stash were real. In this light, too, a 60,000 tonne paper gold system would be quite reasonable in size and should shock no one. As to whether the system � both the gray and the official one � is solvent and healthy, I would say that is somewhere between impossible and very unlikely. If it were a stable system, the official sector would never have had to tap the EU member CB gold for liquidity, and would not build up and support the derivative market at a 1-1.5% gold interest rate. I would rather expect that the ability to have an artificially low rate on gold loans was the driver for this CB participation, and that the need for a source of liquidity below market interest rates was important in order to stabilize an already overextended private market.

http://www.the-privateer.com/Sorry to continually harp about the hyperflation/deflation scenarios, but as an investor who holds other investments beside gold, (which i'm sure is the case for most others),I think it is important to know how to re-allocate ones assets.

Trailguide has mentioned hyper-inflation as the way he sees things ahead.

I have never felt comfortable with that scenario.

I asked Bill Buckler at the privateer on his thoughts and found his reply quite helpful. I thought the rest of the forum may find it of interest.

"The one certainty about a hyper-inflation is that its end result is a "depression" of enormous magnitude.

Actually, the results are worse than mere depression, since a "hyper-inflated" currency becomes worthless.

It is said that in a deflationary recession brought about by credit contraction, wealth returns to its "rightful owners". By that is meant, those who are not in debt, do not hold debt instruments, and do hold physical wealth. In a hyper-inflation, everyone who holds money or any type of monetary insrument is destoyed.

In short, a credit contraction affects debtors, a hyper-inflation affects everyone."

Any comments from anyone.

And here I had feared I had earned your rebuke, all through dinner I thought I've possibly wronged a companion on a cherished journey. (Just read an article on e-mail misunderstandings.) You are gentle with me, and I am relieved.

One thought continued. You mentioned "clients". A thought during dinner (my wife really wonders about those distant looks of mine): Can anyone really understand economics without being self-employed?

Sorry everyone, but we each got where we are by our peculiar route of experience. 91% of Americans are employees and probably always will be, and think like employees. 9% are S/E and there is a world of difference. (And for me the extra level to S/E was when I had to write 30 paychecks out of my pocket for four years. Highwire act. I had to learn S/E all over again, not just puttering around solo as I'm back to now.)

I've had four years of big company computer programming, and 23 of self-employment in construction and taxes. Except for a few depressing but short times of escapism and denial, I breathed what economics is for these 23 years. The four years as an employee were a comparative vacation on a rich guy's payroll.

How can people really understand money if they are indoctrinated like children with a weekly allowance? Paycheck is something they get for "face time", showing up on Monday, more than actual results.

Sorry for the rant. I feel really medieval when I talk like this, but there are some "modern" structures (like mass employment) that pre-dispose people's worldviews and I wonder if we can ever get through that short of those structures breaking down and unfortunately taking lots of those people with them?

I have for some time ben trying to get a handle on the size of global gold supplies. Your post is consequently of great interest. The best official figure that I have been able to get on the total amount of gold in the world is approx. 130 kt. (official reserves and jewellery). I there is a parallel supply of gold, does this mean that total gold gold supplies are higher by between 60kt and 200kt? This would mean that there could be 330 kt of gold available in the world, which is a considerably larger amount than most people would reckon on. However, even if the supply is this large, in monetary terms it is relatively small compared to total global money supply. Consequently, I would expect any impact to be more at the margin than having an effect on total liquidity.

There remains one issue still outstanding. If the parallel banking system is running short of liquidity, how does this impact on the stability of the global economy, to what extent is it a factor, and what is the timing of any potential impact? Or are we genuinely into a new-era economy?

I have for some time ben trying to get a handle on the size of global gold supplies. Your post is consequently of great interest. The best official figure that I have been able to get on the total amount of gold in the world is approx. 130 kt. (official reserves and jewellery). I there is a parallel supply of gold, does this mean that total gold gold supplies are higher by between 60kt and 200kt? This would mean that there could be 330 kt of gold available in the world, which is a considerably larger amount than most people would reckon on. However, even if the supply is this large, in monetary terms it is relatively small compared to total global money supply. Consequently, I would expect any impact to be more at the margin than having an effect on total liquidity.

There remains one issue still outstanding. If the parallel banking system is running short of liquidity, how does this impact on the stability of the global economy, to what extent is it a factor, and what is the timing of any potential impact? Or are we genuinely into a new-era economy?

To tg,

I like to try -

Inflation happens when quantity of goods stays constant but volume of paper tokens use to exchange goods is increased and thereby more paper tokens is needed to exchange each unit of goods � such as US money supply vs. dotcoms before the April 2000 crash.

Deflation happens when quantity of goods stays constant or increasing but volume of paper tokens use to exchange goods is reduced and thereby more goods can be had
for each unit of paper token � such as US dotcoms vs. US money supply after the April 2000 crash .

Stagflation is specific shortages of important commodities such that paper tokens are diverted from other sectors to chase that commodity resulting in a lowering of activities in all other sectors and rising prices in those commodity � such as the new oil economy from 2000 onwards. Assuming the oil payments are true diversions from other sectors and not printed.

Hyperinflation is general shortage of goods and no matter how many unit of paper token is thrown at it, the shortage is never satisfied � such as the big oil crunch by 2003 because the printing press is not allowed to rest and the real resource is over-consumed before alternative remedies are found.

please elaborate,

I cant see how you predict hyper-inflation, just because one sector of the economy,(oil) is going to be over consumed.

Please give me a logical sequence

thanks for the reply

Here is one interesting tidbit that has always been of interest to me.

Back in the early 90's, Taiwan was incurring the wrath of the US by importing gold in amounts that almost exactly matched their otherwise trade imbalance with the US. The US claimed that gold was not a valid import, and that Taiwan had better make some trade concessions, because the books were being cooked.

In the mid 90's, Taiwan got in some kind of snit, (actually the quasi announced reason was lack of faith in US creditworthyness) and moved all their banking business , except what was exactly required for the day to day trade/forex needs, out of the country.

I have never been able to track that gold, other than an impression that it went to a wholly owned government sub. It never appeared to show up in the CB reserves, to me at least. The amounts involved were in the several billions of Dollars.

This is all from memory, so there may be some inaccuracies.

Comments??

Catch your response tomorrow. ZZZ time.

Coin LaundryInteresting math quibble.

One hour of drying time (previous) cost $1.50.
One hour of drying time (new) cost $2.00.

This is an increase of 33%.

A columnist that I follow stated recently, "It is an quirk of math that states a decrease in a stock price of 50% requires a 100% increase to get back to original price."

Your comment:

Interesting math quibble.

One hour of drying time (previous) cost $1.50.
One hour of drying time (new) cost $2.00.

This is an increase of 33%.

A columnist that I follow stated recently, "It is an quirk of math that states a decrease in a stock price of 50% requires a 100% increase to get back to original price."

I have been trying to get my paper investing acquaintances to look at this up and down % phenomon for years. When you have confidence in paper the way they do the 100% means nothing, only the nominal price recovery and they cheer on the floor of the exchange at a nominal price recovery of only 50%. Blindness is aided by optimism and greed in this case and ignorance is bliss. When fear sets in ignorance will not be one of the fall guys.

This conversation would not occur at very many sites.

Respectfully,


hbm

Seven or so years ago I was dealing with several investment bankers who specialized in the gold mining business for a Toronto based bank/brokerage and they were providing data at the time of a complilation of the total in situ reserves of all their South African clients to their central research effort to calculate a sort of total world known supply. A combination of the above ground, and the as yet not mined but economic gold reserves. As I am sure you know in South Africa alone these reserves are gigantic. I was not looking at the information they were presenting in the appropriate light at the time and the significance of what they were trying to do completely elluded me, but perhaps they were laying some of the ground work for the derivative business that we have seen over the last five years.

SECOND Point: One of the first things you notice as a young banker is that the interest rates of the various currencies of the world are in proportion to the rate of disbasement that that countries fiat currency experiences over time. SO a german interest rate would tend to be lower than an Italian or American since it prints less and therefore tends to loose less of its value each year. Switzerland which up until recently was 40% backed by gold and therefore tended to print even less than the Germans and therefore depreciated less and over time tended to have an even lower rate of interest on it's currency. In light of this it would be logical for gold lending to have the lowest rate of interest since it is money and absent manipulation or other exogenous factors it should hold its value over the period of the loan and therefore need a very low rate of interest. In light of this I am not sure that it is a concerted effort of the Central Bankers to hold the rate of gold lending lease rates artifically low, but just the norm of this type of collateralized lending. Please help me understand this as many of the theories of manipulation turn on this point. Thanks

This is not a quibble. It is one of the many phychological reasons that prices are not as elastic downward.

hbm

HBM, I was waiting for you to mention it. Here in Missouri we are voting for a dead man for US Senator. If Ashcroft can't beat a dead man he doesn't deserve to win. There is talk of consulting the Constitution (by Republicans) if the dead man wins (how novel). Our neighbors are very big "mel" supporters. BTW, Mel Carnahan was a decent man; God rest his soul in peace. The sign in their front yard says, "Keep the Fire Burning" My wife and I are very puzzled. Fire, what fire? We're talking about Mel Carnahan not Winston Churchill. No folks, we're not crazy; we're just from Missouri.

How many viewers here would, if they lost a son and a husband quite suddenly, would pick up a new career just as suddenly and carry on without missing a beat? Go figure.

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q4/2000_11/1001105.132451.sharefine.htmInteresting read.

I really do not know how your name fell off my post 40671 to you and ORO. Sorry.

Does anyone know what time CSCO reports today?

Right after market close.

I've been lurking here for several months now, this is my first post. This seems to be a very diverse forum, many sides of the same gold coin represented.

I am from Missouri and really never gave a hoot about Mel Carnahan, sure, he was "alright", but most career politicians just don't usually do much for me, literally (most are in politics to line their and their corporate sponsers pockets, ihmo, with our favorite precious metal).

"How many viewers here would, if they lost a son and a husband quite suddenly, would pick up a new career just as suddenly and carry on without missing a beat?"

Yes, exactly.....This shows how very strong this lady is.
The dead mel did something the live mel could never do, garner my vote...Jean Carnahan is twice the man John Ashcroft will ever be!

Otherwise, I will be voting Liberaterian ('cept for larry rice for governor, of course!).

Have a nice day.....GO GOLD!!!

"Think, think, think,Think."

Winnie The Pooh

report thursday, more lies.

Grains

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3SUO047FC&live=true&tagid=IXLC078IH7C&Collid=AnyGO GATA........AND REG HOWE!!!!!!

BIS faces shareholder revolt
By John Willman in London and Raphael Minder in Paris
Published: November 5 2000 19:47GMT | Last Updated: November 6 2000 00:31GMT

"This buyback forced on the private shareholders is unacceptable," said Fabrice Remon, a partner.

"On monday when the sun is hot,
I wonder to myself a lot:
'Now is it true, or is it not,
That what is which and which is what?'

On Tuesday when it hails and snows,
The feeling on me grows and grows
That hardly anybody knows
If those are these or these are those.

On Wednsday, when the sky is blue,
And I have nothing else to do,
I sometimes wonder if it is true,
That who is what and what is who.

On Thursday, when it starts to freeze,
And hoar-frost twinkles on the trees,
How very readily one sees
That these are whose - but whose are these?"

Why down? It's on the charts!!!

http://www.digitalstorefronts.com/store/shop.aspJust a short note to say that the November News & Views is in editing and will be sent to the printer in the next few days. Those of you who received a cancellation notice last month and would like to subscribe should contact Jill Snyder at the office as soon as possible to avoid an interruption in service. We want to thank all those who have subscribed already. Clients who have purchased precious metals from Centennial/USAGOLD will not be affected by the newsletter service changes.

From this month's Background:

"This month we feature a look at the current stock market woes and what they might mean to the average investor. The masthead quote from John Maynard Keynes summarizes why stock market bubbles burst and the long list of stocks collapsing against the backdrop of slowly deteriorating indices is difficult to ignore -- especially when the results of those individualized collapses affect one's quarterly mutual fund statement with unwelcome regularity. The Dow Jones has fallen just under 8% since January; the S&P about 6% and NASDAQ about 19%. From its March peak the NASDAQ has dropped a cool 35%. The question becomes whether or not this is just another dip or the start of a real bear market."

Don't be left out in the November cold. . . . go to the link above to get the latest NEWS and VIEWS on gold.

Or

Call Jill. . . . .800-869-5115, by e-mail (marie@usagold.com)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

watch bid to cover, Ha Ha Ha.

Orville,

I saw Jean Carnahan and John Ashcroft on one of the Sunday talk shows. While I admire Mrs. Carnahan's decision, and sympathize with her overwhelming loss, I had a very different thought about Ashcroft. I bet Political Butt Kissing 101 never had a module on how to campaign against a dead guy (or the widow), without looking like a total schmuck. Think about it, and you won't envy Ashcroft this race!

M

It is an understatement to say that certain tech stocks have flourished under a Clinton government, and so certain tech companies can look forward to problems under a Bush government.

Here is my list of companies I think will be in BIG trouble under a Bush government, owing to their extremely close ties to the Clinton govenrment this past decade:

1) Sun Microsystems - the company was a major witness on behalf of the government in its antitrust trial against Microsoft. Sun's McNeally is said to have THE closest ties to the Clinton government of any tech CEO in America.

2) IBM - Lou Gerstner has acted as chief consultant to the Clinton government on high tech issues (and some would say a "proxy" for Clinton government actions in the tech market)

3) AOL - Bob Pittman, former head of MTV, is expected to run the combined AOL-TWX. An ultra-liberal, he is said to have the ear of the Clinton government.

4) Yahoo - founder Yang is said to be at the top of the list for all social, political, and economic events connected to the Clinton government.

5) Cisco - CEO Chambers is said to be extremely well connected to the Clinton government and a major beneficiary of Clinton pork for the tech sector.


Furthermore, one would expect that certain venerated Wall Street analysts who flourished during the Clinton years will find themselves consigned to peripheral, reduced roles on a Street guided by a Bush government:

1) Jo Abby Cohen
2) Mary Meeker
3) Henry Blodget
4) Larry Kudlow
5) Jim Cramer


Thanks

F*

."It is a quirk of math that states a decrease in a stock price of 50% requires a 100% increase to get back to original price."

The wonders of compounding in reverse ? Problem is, things can increase 100 percent into infinity. They can only decrease by 100 percent once !

Will Rogers once said of the stock market....."Investing is easy. You buy stocks, wait for 'em to go up, and then sell 'em. If they don't go up, don't buy 'em......"

.Bob Pittman may have Clinton's ear, but all too many have had other assorted body parts, and boils down to all of us having been "porked" along the way, in one form or another.

VOTE !

Bernie Schwartz, head of LORAL, has extremely strong ties to the Clinton government and has been a prime beneficiary of the Clinton connection.

With a Bush government, LORAL should get creamed.

Thanks

F*

I admit it. I'm partisan in this election. I'm writing to try
to convince you not to waste your vote. I'm canvassing for the
American League of Non-voters, acronym, ALoN. ALoN, (pronounced
"Allen") has been the unchallenged victor in nearly every
election in modern American history -- if victory is defined as a
simple plurality (the cause supported by the most folks wins).
So if you must "vote" for a cause that you believe has some
sensible chance of victory, a non-vote uncast for ALoN is the
clear choice.

So don't waste your vote!

In fact, in the last presidential election, ALoN won an outright
_majority_ victory -- less than half the eligible voters voted
for all candidates (Harry Browne, Perot, Clinton, Dole and a few
others) combined. That is, despite the vast array of political
talent arrayed in opposition, more than half of eligible voters
in the 1996 presidential election cast a non-vote for ALoN! That
hasn't happened since the 1920s. And this doesn't even count our
hard-core supporters who don't even register and so aren't even
eligible. (We ALWAYS win off-year elections with a clear
majority hands down, so such off-year non-presidential year
elections aren't even worth mentioning. We have a lock.)

So if you want to be on the winning side, don't waste your vote.
ALoN, the winner's choice!

I can hear a lot of you out there now. "That's unpatriotic,"
you're saying in raised tones. "The bad guy will win," some of
the more pragmatic are heckling. As far as the bad guy, I'm
afraid you're almost certainly right. He'll win - - - or at
least get the nod (ALoN is a shoo-in to win remember -- but the
political establishment will ignore that and swear-in one of the
other guys, the one with the _second_ largest number of
supporters.) How do I know before the election the _bad_ guy
will be the one to win? It's a "Manchurian Candidate" kind of
thing; both front-runners (ALoN excluded of course -- like Nader
from watching the debates) are bad guys. Kind of like arsenic
versus strychnine. That's how I know.

Not the lessor of two evils; no evil at all. Vote ALoN:

As far as "unpatriotic," well, let me tell you a little story
about Wib. Now Wib is a real sharp guy. He reads a lot and
actually (brace yourself) _thinks_. Honest! Anyway a few years
ago, his wife bugged him (or something) till he promised he'd
vote in the next election.

I just happened to be visiting them election eve. Truth be told,
I was hoping to do the opposite of sending a party hack in a van
to take poor unspecting victims to the polls, thus turning them
from innocent bystanders into defacto accomplices.

However, I had underestimated the power of our candidate, ALoN.
Wib's wife, tapping her foot in agitation (and we all know what
_that_ means) informed Wib that the polls would close in less
than an hour, and he'd better get a move-on if he was going to
keep his promise.

Wib, with a knowing wink in my direction, said he had to change
his clothes. His wife Sharon said, "There's nothing wrong with
what you're wearing." Wib said, "Yes there is," and promptly
disappeared upstairs.

About five minutes later he reappeared in torn bluejeans and an
old sweatshirt obviously a grizzled veteran of more than one
messy painting project. "Let's go," said Wib.

Sharon was really annoyed. "You know I won't go out with you
when you're dressed like that," she said. "You're not going to
vote are you?"

"Not if I can help it," said Wib.

"That makes me so angry," said Sharon. "You read the papers, you
always know what's going on. You're one of the best informed
people I know, and no matter what I do, even . . ." Sharon
looked at me and blushed. "Never mind."

"Look honey," said Wib, apparently thinking of "never mind," "I'm
sorry, but I just don't know enough to vote. Do you know how
many offices are on the ballot?"

"No honey," said Sharon. "How many?"

"Well in this election, a small one, there are 31 offices up for
grabs. You know how many people that is? _More_ than 62 --
remember all those third party candidates. And then, if I were
really informed, maybe some of those write-ins would make the
best person for the job.

Do you know how long it would take me to know enough about more
than 62 people just to make a half-way informed decision. Do you
know how long it would take to study just two? How long would it
take a company to interview two prospective employees for an
important job like CEO?

And they would submit complete resumes with solid references to
talk to and phone numbers to check facts. And then there would
be the job interviews. But where do you get good unbiased
information about candidates? Most of the stuff available is
pre-packaged from the campaign organization of one or another of
the candidates or their political party, and it's spun till it's
dizzy."

"But Wib . . ."

"I figure to be even slightly informed, I should spend at least
four hours per person, so researching this small election in even
a half-a . . . (I knew what he was about to say and why he
didn't. Sharon wouldn't tolerate "bad" language.) ". . . ah,
half-acceptable way would take me about 31 working days. A whole
month without any weekends or sick days. There's just no way I
can be informed enough to make even half-way reasonable
decisions."

"But Wib, I know less than you do and I'm voting. Most people
know less than you and _they're_ voting."

"Scary isn't it," said Wib.

End of Story

As I ask people, especially in off-year elections, "Which race do
you know the most about?" Then, "Do you know enough about either
of these bozos to trust them alone in your house with your wife,
your kids, and/or your money?" Well do ya?

And of course, which ever one's elected will be in a position to
affect your wife, your kids, your money, _and_ your house. As
New York Surrogate Judge Tucker quipped, "No man's life, liberty
or property are safe while the legislature is in session."

I suppose if you're going to be robbed, raped and murdered, it's
very slightly better for you if it's done by a somewhat charming
if dyslexic conman than by an arrogant delusional hypocrite. So
if you find not only that you simply _must_ vote, but that you
can't refrain from condoning a functionary from one of the main
Federal gangs, while at the same time legitimizing their constant
violation of the Tenth Amendment, Ninth Amendment, Second
Amendment, hard money clause, direct taxation clause, fiscal
rationality, etc. well, vote accordingly.

By this time, perhaps you've realized voting isn't rational, it's
emotional, and at best perhaps, ceremonial. _YOU_ are by far the
main person affected by your vote. What are _you_ complaining
about? _You_ won or lost didn't you? Since you played the game,
you're responsible for the results - - - and paying for them.
And your kids have to pay too. As quipped by one senator, "We
used to pay-off the mortgage and leave our kids the farm. Now we
mortgage the farm and leave our kids the mortgage."

Perhaps that's one reason the founders included the Ninth and
Tenth Amendment in the Bill of Rights, the hard money clause,
etc. Bob Dole carried a copy of the Tenth Amendment around in
his pocket during his 1996 campaign against Clinton. One
reporter claimed he even mentioned it in one of his speeches. Do
_you_ know what the Ninth and Tenth amendment say? Maybe that
would be a good way to spend some of your month or so of
political research time. "Already too late for this election,"
you say? Well, there's always the Wib maneuver.

ALoN. The thinking person's choice.

I admit I have several staunch friends (and one in particular who
makes his living by calculating odds) who can't stop themselves
from voting because of the Pascal's Wager atmosphere the
desperate political establishment has managed to create for this
particular popularity contest.

And make no mistake, the pols _are_ desperate. If less than half
of the eligible voters participate, even in presidential
elections, it will become much harder for the political
establishment to claim legitimacy when they do what they do to to
you, your family, your neighbors and even people in other
countries. Maybe some brave reporter will be brave enough to
bring up facts like that Clinton received less than half the
votes in both his presidential victories. He only received about
44% of the vote in his second term and since fewer than half
voted at all, his actual voter support was less than 21%. Wanna
bet desperation has something to do with the claimed closeness of
the race?

Pascal's Wager? Well, it amounts to "If God exists and you don't
worship him, you will go to Hell. With the cost so low and the
possible loss so huge, what have you got to lose?" The link
provided may help dissolve this particular mental aberration. Or
not.

So let me try another one: What are the odds of the presidential
election being decided by one vote --- your vote? A friend of
mine made the following proposition to quite a few friends: "If
you call me after you vote and tell me you voted for Harry Browne
- - - - or that you didn't vote at all - - - - and _either_ Bush
or Gore wins by exactly one popular vote, I'll give you $10,000
dollars."

If you indeed give-in to this atavistic urge to vote, you can
salve your conscience as the horrors you have tacitly endorsed
unfold. You can remind yourself that the election, afterall,
wasn't decided by one vote, so your teeny tiny little vote can't
possibly be responsible for what's happening now.

Further, you can remind yourself that even if you did vote for
the runner-up (ALoN was almost certainly the winner remember) by
recognizing it really doesn't matter anyway because, afterall,
Ronald McDonald has more to do with what's on your Big Mac than
[_enter runner-up's name here_] has to do with what happens in
the economy.

Finally you can remind yourself that while it wasn't logical for
you to cast a vote in the first place, voting in a so-called
democracy _isn't_ logical. Illogical popularity contests, just
as in those high-school elections (with the added kicker of
passing out all that loot stolen through taxation) is what
election processes _are_. Which is why the Ninth and Tenth, etc.
are still a good idea. Why expect anything more? Why should
_you_ be held to a higher standard -- not everyone can be as
together as Wib.

Be a winner! Vote ALoN!!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Aunuggets, is this CLE HoF material?

http://www.update.uu.se/~fbendz/nogod/pascal.htm
Ah, above is the link promised but undelivered in the previous post!

Sorry, j.

.CLE HoF Material ?? Only if your cranium extends 12 feet toward the west ! (grin)

Dateline USA Nov.6,2000:
We have just received confirmed word that U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, who unfortunately is not running for President, is presently leading all candidates at this hour with two write in votes recieved from "The Beehive".

In Other Gold Related News:
Anticipating tomorrows 25 tonne Gold sale by the BOE, the British Pound has at this hour lost approximately 2 Pence of value on the FOREX exchanges. Loss of value was attributed to the anticipated loss of tangible assets(Gold) in exchange for as yet unknown currencies.
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Voting seems to be another illusion for people. The more one learns about the system, the less inclined they should be to vote. Like I just read the bad guy always wins. There is no way a good guy can win. The bigger forces behind the scenes, are not good themselfes, so one can conclude their leaders will not lead for good. You see the system is evil, and it can only produce what it is. Like Jeremiah said "that to earthling man his way does not belong. It does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his own step."

Question: When the ECB sold dollars and bought Euro, who did they sell the dollars to and where did the Euro come from; other CB's?

Brilliant missive over the weekend towards th' embatttled towr.

By the way I have decided to vote for the candidate who promises the most money towards finding a cure for that most dreaded of diseases, Narcoleprosy. It is a frightening disease and it does interfere with my sleep. Why just last night as I was drifting of to never land, my eyelids closed and then fell off with a suddenness that caused me to abruptly stop blinking. But the upside is now I may be able to finally finish one of Sir Oro's Volumes without falling over in a coma. Man I never knew the darkness could be so bright.

Got Shades?

Christopher

For a borrower at domestic currency, there is no default premium built in to interest rates prevailing in the currency beyond that induced by the particular risks of that economy - which are usually stable for most currencies, as the monetary policy has often been rather stable and restrictive when compared to US and SE Asia, and this applies recently to some South American countries as well. The change in the denomination of international world debt from dollars to Euro is introducing the old monetary diseases of the US to Europe. It is part of the transition from local currency to reserve currency, and must have been expected by the monetary officialdom of the EU, and even by the nitwit politicos, if anyone took the trouble to tell them. The default risk of non-EU borrowers is building into Euro interest rates, as it has in dollar interest rates over history.

Finally, back to gold interest rates, while your note on interest rates having a relationship to the monetary expansion rates of the denominating currency, while this works as a guide for all domestic borrowing rates, it is not a good enough guide for foreign currency borrowing, and is totally irrelevant in gold. Gold has no actual lender of last resort with bales of digits to unload at a microsecond's notice. Thus default premiums must be far higher than they would be for a local currency borrower, or even a foreign currency borrower, both of which stand to benefit from an injection of liquidity if default rates rise to uncomfortable levels domestically or internationally (see rate decisions during the Russian debt crisis).

So the point here is that interest rates in gold should include a default premium, just as currency rates include one in the form of an inflationary expectation (a default on purchasing power) - that all credit shall be inflated into currency at some point in the future. Thus the dollar based gold borrower should be paying the rate at which default risk is compensated. Thus, 1.5% (traditional 1 year interest rate) + Treasury interest rate in dollars + appropriate default risk premium for that borrower's credit rating in its domestic currency. For most large US companies that is about 10.5%, for the government, it would be 8.5%.

Thus the 1.5% "lease rate" assumes the patently absurd prospect of delivery on a highly inflated paper gold balance. Obviously, it is not a "natural" rate, as a politically motivated player is dominating the gold money market, rather than an economically motivated group dominating (i.e. profit motivated).

From Worldnet Daily......Voter fraud, again!
� 2000 WorldNetDaily.com

Stop the presses! I mean it. Stop the election!
Something is going on in Washington and California that will have a
great impact on tomorrow's election -- and it stinks to high heaven.

Let me start by telling you how I found out about it.

A very good friend of mine, who shall remain nameless, has a long-
time live-in housekeeper from Guatemala. The housekeeper has a
daughter who just turned 18. The immigration status of both mother
and daughter has been pending for years. Papers have been filed with
the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Hearings have been held.
But they are not citizens.
This is very important: The daughter has not registered to vote.
But, a few days ago, the 18-year-old got a very attractively
packaged "Dear friend" letter from Bill Clinton, paid for by the
California Democratic Party.

Here's what it said (on one side in Spanish and on the other side in
English): "While every election is important, the November 7th
election will determine our future for the next decade, and beyond.
The stakes are high for America's Latino families. And California is
the critical battleground.
"That's why I'm writing. We need your help to elect a Democratic
Congress.
"Despite our strong economy, many hard-working people still struggle
to make ends meet. Quality, affordable health care, a world-class
education, aging with dignity, and well-paid jobs are part of the
American dream -- rather than an American reality -- for too many
people.
"Electing a Democratic Congress is essential for our 'Families First'
legislative agenda.

"Congratulations on your decision to register. Registering to vote is
a basic responsibility of citizenship that far too many people
ignore.
"Now that you are registered ...
 "Can I count on you to vote Democratic on November 7th?
 "Will you make an extra effort to elect Democrats to Congress --
and to your State Legislature -- by talking to your family, friends
and neighbors?
"Remember: Your Vote is Your Voice.

"Su Voz, Es Su Voto. Make your voice heard on Election Day.
"Sincerely, President Bill Clinton"


Below that letter is a P.S. that explains: "Here is your personal
Voter Identification Card. Sign your name, then detach your card.
Bring your card with you to your polling place on Election Day. It
will help your voting go more smoothly."

Apparently all the recipient needs to do with this Voter
Identification Card is sign it to be eligible to vote. Keep in mind,
this was sent to a previously unregistered voter.

As my friend points out, only the U.S. government knows her age and
pending residency status, and, obviously her Latino background. How
did this information wind up in the partisan political hands of the
California Democratic Party? And what kind of impact will a mailing
like this -- obviously utilizing a government database for political
purposes -- have on the California legislative races? How widespread
is this fraud?

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225698F004F7B9D?OpenDocumentOver many months I (and others) have logged time at the forum to get this point across along with related matters of bullion and currency banking, and the semi-related issue of the U.S. versus euroland reserve model.

Here, condensed into ONE article, you now have an opportunity to read an excellent summary explanation of the derivative side and its influence on the gold market. Everyone absolutely must read and understand this information before we can expect to make further headway into these discussions.

On an economic note, the significance of the overwhelming support of the populace for non-legitimacy for government party, a.k.a ALoN, or NotA (None of the Above, pronounced "nada"), is that it is consistent with the statistical probability of a person's benefit from government decisions.

The probability of gain has to be less than 50% in total because government produces nothing and therefore has no expertise in making productive choices. Any decision made by government would therefore result in an overall loss to the population as a whole. In addition, government charges a fee (tax) to execute and form these decisions. Government in the US charges a 400% fee over value provided. State government, after which State Universities are modeled, charge a more modest 150%-200% fee within the State university. And therefore, the State governments should be expected to ask for a higher fee somewhere between that of the Federal government and the State Universities - say 300%.

So, in order for X% to benefit, X% * 400% must lose. Thus, 20% at best stand to benefit from the outcome of an election. Thus the battle lines are drawn every 4 years such that each party choses the groups they propose to benefit (but don't intend to actually do so beyond the minimum needed to retain some credibility). The groups discount the promises at the appropriate level to the capacity of the promise makers to deliver, such that only 20% will actually be persuaded that a serious benefit is headed their way if the one party were voted into power in one or more of the person's various voting jurisdictions. Thus only 2 blocks of about 20% each could possibly have any reason to expect a benefit from the likely outcomes of the elections. The group that "wins" will be the one that has actual representation, and will constitute 20% of the population - or less. Voter turnout should be at 40% - or less of the population that could have registered to vote.

The natural vote is therefore a vote for non-participation of government representatives in decisions of importance.

272.50

The following info is from David G. in regards to Marcos' gold and OTHER sources as is related in his book The Secret Gold Treaty. The world supply issues are an unknown, IMHO.
With a little luck would like the author to begin posting on this site. Regards. "Thanks for your message. Your fellow board member ORO is on the right
track, but he should be aware that the online transaction documents he
quotes are far from a complete and full accounting. There are many others,
of course. Moreover, Marcos was not the only one recovering AU and other
treasure from the Philippines. Nor was it just the Philippines. Besides
the OSS/CIA recoveries that began in 1945, there was also
the 1986/ Nippon Star venture of CIA black operatives, there were also some
Japanese groups working. There has also been numerous others, including
teams that are "in progress" which is one reason I included pictures in my
book of Cambodian gold recovered in the mid-1990's plus pictures of an
excavation in progress.

I would also add that I have no financial interest in gold or other
investments. Consequently, I have no desire or need to juggle with facts
or attempt to set them in a pre-determined matrix of what might
be bullish for gold. Or, indeed, otherwise. My interest is simply to tell
what I consider to be a
compelling and important story.

I also think that some researchers could benefit by looking at the
historical mining figures promulgated by official sources, such as GFMS, the
WGC.

The figures used by the WGC, for example, possess little academic validity
since they admit that stats for the pre-American gold rush era are "not
known precisely." The word "precisely" is clearly superfluous and it is not
difficult to imagine that its use was intended to dampen the actual
significance of the statement that accurate historic gold figures are simply
"not known."

This interpretation is supported by the second part of the sentence
communicated to me by WGC which states that the stats they use for
determining mining figures from "ancient times" are "rough annual
estimates." (the entire sentence reads: "Exactly how much was mined from
ancient times is not known precisely, but rough annual estimates are shown
in the table below."

Once it has been determined that historical mining figures are figments of
the imagination of those who sit at the heart of the industry, then the
entire edifice of officially admitted above ground stocks becomes
meaningless."

Regards

David


----- Original Mes

AOL Business NewsThe measure meets a US commitment toward an international effort to forgive the debts of 33 poor countries that Clinton said were laboring under a "crippling burden of massive debt" often piled up by departed dictators.

It also authorizes the IMF to sell gold "off market" to finance its participation in the initiative.

I wonder who they sell the gold to and how does this reduce the debt of the poor countries. Turkey Hunter

. EXCELLENT brief overview of derivatives. Had to snicker though at the last line, second to last paragraph:

"It is logical and inevitable that the derivatives market, not the physical market, determines the price of gold." (indicating an "abnormal" derivatives market).

"Logical" until those buying call options decide "en masse" to do just that......CALL ! Then what ? (grin)

aunuggets

C- If you're looking for promises better vote for the one that made this fine site possible to begin with. Nothing is beyond the Delusional One {I need to get an early start on him in case he wins}. What an enormous clutz, Gerald Ford is a champion decathlon by comparison. It would be fun, you gotta admit, w he & the tipper slobbering all over each other for 4 more yrs. Looks like they're still trying to get it right. You don't think they invented PDA do you? {If you gotta ask- you need some}. Where did our vp learn to speak so s...l...o....w...l...y...? I've been to Tennessee and they can understand you when you speak at a normal pace. Was tipper around when algor needed the airbrushing or was he just drooling from hearing enticing stories from "one of our greatest presidents"? That was clear pro quid quo as al is now "one of our greatest vps". al can pardon bill, hill can pardon al {hell, she's already pardoned bill!}, this can go on indefinitely. Somebody has to pay for all this BS...Oh nevermind we do pay taxes don't we. Final advice- better laugh to keep from crying.

aunuggets- It is CLHE-HoF not CHLE-HoF! If you miss it again you will be an official dues paying member.

Whoever we vote in is condemned to suffer the fallout of the clintonlegacy. He better have a thick hide.
So Streisand and others are threatening to vacate the US if AlGor doesn't come through. I'm leaving if the hillarious one ever makes the oval office {disgusting}, what if we all end up in the same foreign country? Naw. Parallel government? Well someone has to get something done, don't they?? Any truth to the rumor that the clintons are actually posting on this forum???
Faith to the Faithful- The dwindling spec of au

http://www.sltrib.com/11052000/utah/40105.htmsnip "VIRGIN -- The murder rate in this tiny southwestern Utah town is nonexistent and drive-by shootings happen only in the movies. But it is still a good idea for residents to have a gun over the mantle.
If they don't, they are breaking the law. "

Thanks much for the effort, and convey my thanks to Mr. Guyatt for sharing his perceptions. If you could get him to participate in our discussion we are sure to benefit.

I agree with his statement regarding the "unknown" nature of historical gold accumulation completely. The point of the exercizes we do here is to figure out what a reasonable total would be for outstanding above-ground gold, gold reserves and resources likely to be identified at various prices, actual current production vs. estimated and reported numbers from producers, and real consumption figures rather than import data from customs. If a multibillion dollar "illegal" drug business can exist under the radar screen, then a legitimate but secret gold trade would be that much easier to trade - and that much easier to hide.

Personally, the 200,000 tonne figure I posted as a minimum stock level appears to me as a substantial underestimate. As a pure speculation, I would take 300,000 tonnes as the bare minimum for anything likely to be the figure.

Nickel62 was talking of his experience in 1992-4 with the data collection by a banking interest in the area of mine reserve estimates. I should point out that these numbers are "massaged" nearly as badly as technology company earnings, oil reserve data, or government funded research.

The data are released after they are paid for, the information was normally known with some degree of completeness years before the project meant to identify it is launched. One does not get funding for new projects if one misses on a prior project, therefore exploratory projects are proposed AFTER the answer is known. This assures the proposal is accepted because of the principal's sterling track record of reporting from his files and using the new funding on completely unrelated explorations or research. Same with very volatile tech earnings and revenues, which are collected first, then delayed and forecast to the analysts, who then "pay for it" by boosting the stock. Then the insiders cash in and use the funds to hunt down the next source of revenue/income. The "news" of the increased revenues/income is then released and one can only hope that the new business being pursued by the corporation or its officers will yield anything of value in the future.

Information on gold company resources and reserves is delayed in the same way for the same reasons. Therefore, the bankers will always be in the dark till years after the new discoveries are made and the resources are known. The bankers, in particular are chosen for this because they are the direct targets of proposals for exploration, etc..

Interesting, 'ey?

Relevant from Bridge News, Istanbul--Nov. 6

The Istanbul Gold Exchange announced today that it imported 17.63 tonnes of gold during the month of October, bringing the year-to-date import total to 185.7 tonnes. Compared to corresponding figures for last year, these volumes are up by 119% and 90%, respectively, over 8.1 tonnes in October 1999, and 97.6 tonnes during January-October, 1999.

I petition FOA to shed light on this post 40709.

Seems like something big and consequential going on behind the scenes!

Also, FOA/Trail Guide, could it be said that if the US dollar goes through a major devaluation, that those who hold paper dollars earned before the devaluation will have less buying power after the fact, (I know, well, duh!) but after the devaluation, will wages (and contracts) just kind of equalize, so that there is no difference between work and reward, either before, or after, the devaluation?

I mean, it would seem that by looking at the past, changes have come, but the world keeps turning, and nothing really changes.

In contrast, isn't it funny how many of us thought Clinton would declare martial law because of Y2K, and those black helicopters were going to have us rounded up in UN concentration camps? (I saw the pictures!)

The BIS is not the only mega power trying to stick it to its minority shareholders) ID#404252:
Copyright � 2000 hollins/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
INCO is trying to force the minority shareholders of its VOISEY BAY subsidiary to cave to its rip off low ball bid. Baaaa baaa baaaa give me some more stock options since I can not manage a business profitably but I can double cross my share investors with Nesbitt Burns help. Baaaaa Baaaa Baaaa American ethics in the 21st century Canadian version.

we all agree that the management of the company who bought Voisey Bay by using our share structure to finance the deal has decided that they can screw the minority shareholders without any second thought because the "investment bankers" said that that would be okay for INCO to do so.
So we are supposed to roll over and pretend that the money the investment bankers make for suggesting this rip off is a justified business expense for the management that we are hiring to run our affaires and that the way we are being treated is somehow fair and equitable.

Yes and then we should agree to pay a large share option to the management of INCO so they are rewarded for using our money for five years and then paying us thirty cents on the dollar for the effort we made to allow them to buy the Voisey Bay deposit in the first place. Yes that is what I want to tell my children I did to make this a better world.

I told my clients that this was in their best interests because the bankers said it was only worth this much since we don't think that there is any way it will be developed during the foreseeable future. But of course we are willing to spend another $200 million US to buy out those shareholders who helped us buy it in the first place because officially we don't think that it will be developed in our foreseeable future.

So the $200 million is to thank those Voisey Bay shareholders for helping us buy the property in the first place and it is the least we can do. Don't you think?

.So I (we, they) got it wrong. Nutts is Nutts. Shouldn't that subject me to lifetime honorary (honary ?) membership ? At least my directions were right. Everytime I cross the western state line, I feel closer and closer to home. Speaking of which, since the earth rotates once every 24 hours, home should be coming by just about any time now.

aunuggets (once schizophrenic but we're doing much better now, thanks. Glad that's spelled the way it sounds....)

Sir ORO,
Thank you for your replies and your openness. I am making every effort to get David G to join us as we and he should all benefit. There is, understandably, a lot of skepticism in regards to a large overhang of unofficial gold for numerous reasons. One reason is that it is hard to trust many in this "murky market". Do they have motives?? Are they part of THEM?? We have all seen the odiously timed incidents that slam our favorite metals, and are fully aware of an organized disinformation campaign.
HOWEVER- How many of us just completely KNOW something, but in reality do not. Becoming a recognized "expert" in a field can be dangerous as pride can lead us astray and shut our minds to growth. My point is, as yours was, there are only OPINIONS in regards to this unofficial gold, NO ONE knows for certain how much is there. It is hard to come to grips with this issue because we are all so heavily invested {in many ways} in the gold fields, and it's hard to "go there".Could be too painful, but probably is not. Usually best to get it all out on the table and logically dissect it. No "Chimps" around here, right? Have yet to see FOA weigh in on this issue.
You have obviously researched these issues as has David. I enjoy little more than getting great minds together {and absorbing like a sponge}! You may spend 4.5 years on a learning project for example, but when you're done you may transfer the essence of that learning to another in 20 or 30 minutes or even much quicker {exponential learning- thank you MK}. I almost know enough to be dangerous and soon hope to. Would like to get David in the forum so I can get back to the P-nut gallery where I feel safest. My teenager has taught me how to "cut & paste" so may be a go-between here for a while.
Best to you, I try to read all your posts!
awe-spek

Subject: Out of Oil ...........


There are a lot of folks that don't understand how come
we are running out of oil here in the U.S.A....

Well, - - here's the answer: It's simple....... Nobody bothered
to check the oil. So nobody knew, - - we were getting low.... !!

And of course the reason for that is, - - "geographical... !!!"

Ya see, - - most of the oil is in Texas and Oklahoma, - - and

all the dipsticks are in Washington, D.C......"

aunuggets,
Are you sure you have the right group? Have yet to see much honor attributed to this quasi-existent crew. We have disparate members and supposedly they are building us a home, but that's about it. The Palestenians own Manhattan compared to us. We do have keyboards and hopefully some flakes heading our way soon. In the meantime, please send in your dues and join us in spirit!
au-advocate

By "off market" transaction, might that be the same financial alchemy practiced already by the IMF after a bid to sell IMF gold was quashed by Congress (lack of support)? Gold was sold by the IMF to said debtor country (gold never left vault). Gold that was sold was carried on the IMF books at $42. Debtor country sold the gold back to the IMF at a much higher value. Proceeds from sale were used to retire the debt. Net/net--gold was monetized. Also, the US President cannot unilaterally direct the IMF; POTUS cannot.

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/576The Financial Times reports about
opposition to the plan of the Bank for
International Settlements to expropriate
its private shareholders. You heard about
this issue from Reg Howe and GATA first!

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

If in fact the USD is at the end of its currency timeline as is discussed here then, another fiat for world trade settlement will be needed. If/when this fall from grace of the dollar occurs, another medium must also be recognized to denominate wealth in addition to the Euro. My point is that all this black gold could be brought out into the light of day magnifying many times over the true wealth of the holders of same. This would truly be "playing the gold card". Even if I was very wealthy, at some point, I would want the gold I stored, hid etc. valued upwards to further enhance my financial position. This gold is in strong hands. These same strong hands might want POG to rise for their own benefit. Gold can be used in this context as leverage however dark the intent.??

.You'll notice I did say "subject(ed) to" rather than "bestowed upon"...... (big grin)

aunuggets

Washington Post 10/25/00 Hill Leaders Agree on 3rd World Debt...This article was written by Eric Planin.

Congressional leaders agreed Yesterday to a plan to write off loans of 30 of the world's poorest countries, fulfilling a pledge by the US to help alleviate the often crippling debts that have hindered economic development in the third world. The plan is part of a major foreign aid package that will include the full $435 million sought by President Clinton for third world debt relief as well as language allowing the IMF to release $800 million from the sale of its gold reserves for additional debt forgiveness. The foreign package (is) $14.9 billion.....

This shed anymore light on the subject?
Turkey Hunter

First, you must know this as background information. I have alluded to it in the past, but here is the memo from the European Central Bank (www.ecb.int):

PRESS RELEASE: Sales of foreign exchange interest income by the European Central Bank (ECB)

14 September 2000 -- At the beginning of 1999 the ECB was provided with foreign reserve assets with a market value, at that time, of some EUR�39.5 billion, 15% of which was gold. These assets were transferred to the ECB by the national central banks of the Eurosystem in accordance with Article�30 of the Statute of the ESCB.

The foreign currency component of the ECB's foreign reserve assets has been invested, and it earns foreign exchange revenue for the ECB. The ECB's holdings of foreign currencies have increased by an amount corresponding to over EUR�2.5 billion since the beginning of 1999, mainly on account of receipts of interest income, denominated primarily in US dollars but also in Japanese yen. The Governing Council of the ECB decided at its meeting on 31�August 2000 that inflows derived from the interest income of the foreign reserve assets would be sold against euro in order to maintain the structure and risk profile of the ECB's balance sheet as it was at the beginning of 1999.

The sale of the interest income accrued so far will start today and will be spread over a number of days. After this initial sale, it is intended that future inflows will normally be sold on a regular basis. The amounts actually sold will be indicated in the ECB's commentary on the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, published on a weekly basis.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of Japan have been informed of these planned foreign exchange operations.
-------------------

Now, consider further that the bulk of the official Eurosystem foreign exchange reserves rest in the coffers of the 11 national member central banks, and the paper portion totals in value approximately 260 billion euros. (For the record, the total gold assets have a value approximately 120 billion euros.) Can you imagine that the national central banks would want the interest earnings by their own more substantial forex holdings to also follow the trend of the ECB? It certainly is not considered "intervention" when the ECB (or its members) sells their dollars for euros as laid out in the memo copied above, but you must recognize that the actions are the same as those of an official intervention. Now, unlike the G7 sanctioned intervention in September involving the Fed, the BoJ, BoE, and BoC, the "interventions" on last Friday and again today were by Euroland alone. Can you see how it might be politically advantageous to simply allow such divestments of foreign-denominated paper reserves to be passed off as interventions at this time?

With 260 billion euros that can be brought to bear in a true intervention bid, the ECB could have surely made a larger impact to the external exchange rate during these past two days if that was their true intention. If you can begin to see this picture before it fully develops for the rest of the sleeping world, then you will see the bright future of gold in time to capitalize. Think about it!

Centennial has your gold at 21-year lows when you are ready to act.

http://www.welcome.to/VoteBuddy
If any of you have been wanting to vote for someone other than THOSE two, but are afraid your vote might make the difference, there's a way you can vote your conscience.

Visit the link in the header and match yourself with someone on the other side who doesn't really want to choose the lesser of two evils either. The two of you cancel out and so you both can vote your conscience, whether that's Nader, Browne, Buchanan or "None Of The Above" (my favorite.)

It's easier than it sounds. Check out the link above for a much better explanation and the place to do it.

Regards,
Journeyman

I am sure I speak for Michael, too, when I say that I hope for the best possible resolution to your family's situation in any and all regards. --Randy

Good evening!

As promised last night, I've put together an excerpt that may help illustrate why Libertarians (and others) sometimes feel there is little difference between the 2 major parties. I've heard the media ask this of Nader often: 'How can you stay in the race, take votes away from Gore, and maybe assure Bush's election?' To me, this is the liberal side of the post HBM made yesterday about how voting Libertarian (or any other minority party) could contribute to a Gore victory.

A couple of comments about this excerpt. The language gets a little pithy in a couple of places, so those who object to that may wish to leave the table for a moment. I hope they don't, because they might otherwise enjoy the humor and the lesson. This comments on a small town meeting in New Hampshire, which the author refers to as Blatherboro- -presumably so as not to offend his neighbors. Without further ado:

"�it was time for the real gist of the town meeting, the big fight everybody was waiting for, the keen excitement and high drama of quarreling about sewers.

"�there were strong feelings about effluvian matters in Blatherboro. An article was proposed that, if passed, would require a special town meeting be convened to approve any expansion of the town sewer system costing more than $50,000. The idea was not to save money on sewers. User fees and hookup charges already reimburse the town for all sewer costs. The purpose of the proposal was, instead, to control growth. Every commercial, industrial or housing development of any size would need to be approved by the town as a whole or wind up swimming in its own waste. Specifically, this article was aimed at stopping a golf course and condominium complex already under construction on the west side of town.

"The golf course developer had been punctilious in meeting the town's Planning Board, Board of Adjustment, Conservation Commission and Historic District Commission requirements and in obeying all applicable state and federal laws. The golf course and condo-complex developer had needed to obtain 47 permits from 11 different government agencies to start building. But he had done so. An all-sewage special town meeting was the last possible way to stop the guys in plaid pants and kiltie shoes.

"As I mentioned before, I hold private-property rights to be sacred-in theory. Which is like saying I'm rich-in Bulgaria. In theory we're all lots of things: good, kind and, above all, consistent. I hold private-property rights to be sacred in theory, but in practice I had thrown in with the anti-golf course faction.

"�Theory is important, sure, but it shouldn't get between a man and his wallet. You can't serve theory for dinner. People have a theoretical right to do what they want with their property, and people have a theoretical right to move into my town. But�

"It was at this moment, in the middle of the Blatherboro sewer debate, that I achieved enlightenment about government.

"�It wasn't mere disillusionment that I experienced. Government isn't a good way to solve problems; I already knew that. And I'd been to Washington and seen for myself that government is concerned mostly with self-perpetuation and is subject to fantastic ideas about its own capabilities. I understood that government is wasteful of the nation's resources, immune to common sense and subject to pressure from every half-organized bouquet of assholes�. What I hadn't realized was government is morally wrong.

"The whole idea of our government is this: If enough people get together and act in concert, they can take something and not pay for it. And here, in small-town New Hampshire, in this veritable world's capital of probity, we were about to commit just such a theft. If we could collect sufficient votes in favor of special town meetings about sewers, we could make a golf course and condominium complex disappear for free. We were going to use our suffrage to steal a fellow citizen's property rights. We weren't even going to take the manly risk of holding him up at gunpoint.

"Not that there's anything wrong with our limiting growth. If we Blatherboro residents don't want a golf course and condominium complex, we can go buy that land and not build them. Of course, to buy the land, we'd have to borrow money from the bank, and to pay the bank loan, we'd have to do something profitable with the land, something like�build a golf course and condominium complex. �Better to build a golf course right through the middle of Redwood National Park and condominiums on top of the Lincoln Memorial than to sit in council gorging on the liberties of others, gobbling their material substance, eating freedom.

"What we were trying to do with our legislation in the Blatherboro Town Meeting was wanton, cheap and greedy-a sluttish thing. This should come as no surprise. Authority has always attracted the lowest elements of the human race. All through history mankind has been bullied by scum. Those who lord it over their fellows and toss commands in every direction and would boss the grass in the meadow about which way to bend in the wind are the most depraved kind of prostitutes. They will submit to any indignity, perform any vile act, do anything to achieve power. The worst off-sloughings of the planet are the ingredients of sovereignty. Every government is a parliament of whores.

"Trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us."

P.J. O'Rourke (Parliament of Whores, 1991 Atlantic Monthly Press)
[My note: O'Rourke is a humorist who is a Republican with libertarian leanings.]

Is this supposed to give you "the answer" about who to vote for, or whether a vote for a minority party is wasted? I think not. What it does illustrate is the frustration many Libertarians have with Republicans, who talk a good game of smaller, less intrusive government, but end up outspending the Democrats and selling out on all manner of "sacred" principles. Yeah, they're sacred when they're trying to get your vote. HBM: the Repubs, with majorities in both houses of Congress, couldn't even find the guts to repeal Clinton's 4.something-cent gas tax increase when everyone was screaming bloody murder about $30/bbl. crude oil. Trent Lott looked like he was about to make in his pants over it. (I think they had to revive him during a commercial break.)

I've seen Republicans do this my entire adult life, and I won't tolerate it any more. Hell, LET Gore win. Let him drive the economy in the dumper, and get us involved in all manner of senseless bloodshed abroad. Maybe that's what it will take to wake people up? A collective face slapping isn't possible. I don't stand much chance of seeing tax or regulatory relief under either alternative, so I intend to vote Libertarian. I have to admit to a lowbrow reason for voting Lazio: I have a deep, abiding disgust for Hillary. I'd vote for anyone with a pulse rather than her. I don't kid myself regarding any benefit other than not seeing her sneering face on my TV for 6 years, and depriving her of a likely stepping stone back to the White House.

Hope y'all enjoyed the snippet, but I've got to go get into my jammies now, so I can get to the polls early!

Marius

JavaMan (11/05/00; 16:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 40635)
"Randy, I feel I've been remiss by not addressing you sooner. Glad to see you're back from your journeys and no worse for the wear I presume. I see from your flurry of posts you're still comfortably on top of your game!"
------------
Well thank you, Harley ol' chap. On top of my game? That is not for me to say, but I am DEFINATELY on top of The Tower (and it is COLD and WET up here tonight!)

I hope the latest information has been helpful to you and to all who gather here in the warmth of the Castle's (Centennial's) Round Table.

Both URL's you provided concerning future IMF gold sales are invalid, they do NOT exist.

What other imaginary gold sales do you wish to discuss? How are your gold shorts doing?

Thanks

F*

You said:

"HBM, I was waiting for you to mention it. Here in Missouri we are voting for a dead man for US Senator. If Ashcroft can't beat a dead man he doesn't deserve to win. There is talk of consulting the Constitution (by Republicans) if the dead man wins (how novel). Our neighbors are very big "mel" supporters. BTW, Mel Carnahan was a decent man; God rest his soul in peace. The sign in their front yard says, "Keep the Fire Burning" My wife and I are very puzzled. Fire, what fire? We're talking about Mel Carnahan not Winston Churchill. No folks, we're not crazy; we're just from Missouri."

"How many viewers here would, if they lost a son and a husband quite suddenly, would pick up a new career just as suddenly and carry on without missing a beat? Go figure."

My response:

The strange occurrence in Missouri is weirder than most think:

1) The current governor who has declared that he will appoint Mrs. Carnahan to serve in her deceased husband's place is the governor only because Mr. Carnahan has ceased to be alive.
2) The appointment should it take place, would be based upon the presumption that it is constitutional to appoint Mrs. Carnahan to the senate seat because the inauguration of the senate will occur just prior to the inauguration of the new governor of the state of Missouri. Shortly after the appointment by the acting governor a new governor will be inaugurated.
3) It is very possible that a republican governor will be inaugurated shortly after the appointment of the new senator by the acting democratic governor.
4) This, to me, is the most noxious example of politics on the state level I have ever seen. God help us.

Sir Cavan Man:

My good friend, I must beg to differ with you on this one:

1) Mrs. Carnahan may be quite a nice lady but her husband's politics are extreme left. May his soul rest in peace but his politics rot in hell.
2) What we have here is the same bill of goods that the Clintons shoved down our throats. Somehow we get two for the price of one and I might add that the price is enormous in terms of accelerated fabianism. No votes were cast for Mrs. Carnahan in the past and none will be cast for her in the election tommarrow yet we are to eat this hog wash under the guise that a dead man can will his good offices to his family (spouse).
3) Mel Carnahan may have been a decent man. Being a decent man or a decent woman for that matter does not qualify one for the high office of the U.S. senate. My father is the most decent man I have ever known but I could not in good conscience vote for him to serve in a position in which he is obviously lacking in capacity to serve.
4) If John Ashcroft cannot beat a dead man???????? He is not running against a dead man. He is running against a dead man's wife and the race is no longer one of issues but one of emotional politics. The situation is madness. Ashcroft was clearly ahead in the race prior to the death of his opponent. What we have is a perfect example of Archibald Macleash's warning, "a world full of ignorant people is dangerous to live in!"

If I have my facts wrong concerning the situation with the acting governor and the questionable appointment of the governor's wife at the midnight hour someone please offer the facts to the contrary.

Very respectfully,

hbm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7749-2000Oct24.htmlTry this URL. See if this works. I'm not trying to lead anyone astray. I'm kinda new at this and don't know how everything works yet.
Turkey Hunter.

Thanks for the reply.

Sounds as if this sale is just anti-gold "spin".

But even if it is real, as you say it probably won't affect the price of gold, either physical, or paper. Just sort of a shuffle, that saves face for the dollar.

Because if a third world country can just default on its dollar debt to the IMF, then the dollar would be shown to be nothing more than a paper instrument of tyranny, that can be sucessfully rebelled against, and thereby lose its power to oppress.

So to forgive the debt through "financial alchemy", as you put it, maintains the image of the dollar as a reserve currency, good for international settlements.

(It seems like this is the only time I have ever heard of gold being used as real money, in our modern times.)

Well, thanks for the reply, and did I state the facts correctly?

The article you reference concerns sales of gold executed between the IMF and certain Third World countries, whereby gold is sold to the IMF, thereafter the proceeds are used to repay certain Third World countries' IMF debts, then the IMF turns around and resells the very same gold back to the countries selling the gold in the first place, then pockets the proceeds for the purpose of making further new loans. The entire exercise is designed in a devious manner such that the net effect is no gold hits the public markets.

It is a form of accounting legerdemain, and is designed primarily to allow for repayment of debts owed certain major US banks.

However, you should note that there is NOT one scintilla of humanitarian intent in all these machinations, they are designed solely to assist US banks in covering maturing Third World loans, NOT to mention creating the impression that gold is undesirable and countries are unloading it everywhere, thus driving down the price, thus helping the heavily gold short bullion banks avoid insolvency for yet another day.

That is because actual gold sales resulting in lower gold prices HARM most Third World countries where gold is a primary export. So if Clinton were truly a humanitarian instead of a selfish, deceitful, blow job fetishist, then he would run the gold price through the roof.

Thanks

F*

Good Sir:

You may have misunderstood me. My questions concerning Bush/Gore/Libertarian vote vs. Hillary/Lazio/Libertarian vote had to do with consistency only. I was not questioning your choice to vote libertarian. I will not be voting at all for the reasons that Journeyman has elaborated upon.

In this case I am not a convert of Journeyman's. We just happen to have identical positions in the matter of voting. We have a right to vote or not to vote. We are voting by choosing to exercise our right not to vote.

No doubt Bush is not a libertarian but rather a left winger in comparison to libertarians. There is a nickel's worth of difference in Bush and Gore but not a dime's worth. You are quite right to suffer abuse for your stand and trust me, you will. I fully expect to get clobbered for this post. So be it.

An aside to Sir Peter: - Sir I hope I have not disappointed you. Please forgive me, I just cannot help myself. I do admit that I will not be hunkering down quite so low if Bush wins as I will be if Gore wins; however in either case I will be hunkering down. Mr. Bush is a decent man but his lies about surpluses etc. are not becoming of a decent man.

Very respectfully,

hbm

If the polls are even in the ballpark we have Nader garnering more votes than Buchanan. That can only happen in a leftist country. I am not a Buchanan fan, far from it but the above scenario does indicate that international socialism is preferred to national socialism in the good ole U.S. of A. Hunker down my friends.

hbm

To vote for the (so called)Libertarian cause is to bury ones head in the sand & to deny the true facts.
America has a golden opportunity for change .... or for more of "the same" ....the choice is yours....use it prudently.

Hyperinflation continuedTo Tg,

What is the link between stagflation and hyperinflation?

Consider in 1973 � the ratio of oil production in Islamic countries vs. rest of the world is 48/52. This will happen again from 2003 and will get progressively worse off on the forward timeline. Oil production at the North Seas and oil fields will begin to deplete at about 2.7% per annum while world's consumption is still growing annually at about 2%.

Consider also the following:
1973 2000
% Oil consumed in US from
Arab Gulf & OPEC 22.2% 38.3%
Trade Surplus (Deficit) � US$ bil. 3.7 (393.5)
Foreign Capital Inflow - US$ bil. (8.4) (837.9)

In a hostile environment such as those prevailing in 1973 (aren't we back to those days with the current Middle East tensions), the US will be particularly vulnerable. It currently lacks the capacity to pay (other than by fiat federal reserve IOU's) nor the capacity to trade (cannot balance imports with exports). We all know, even now, every trick in the book has been used to suck foreign capital into the US to support its consumption.

It is high time to understand B2B � Back to Basics

Some of the highlights in the chronology of the energy market in 1973 was, see http://npr.org/news/specials/oil/gasprices.chronology.html#a1973:

1973
Jan 11
U.S. Phase III price controls begin. Allows for voluntary instead of mandatory price control on all U.S. prices. This does not prevent a sharp rise in heating oil prices caused by a severe winter and shortage of product.
Jan 23
Shah of Iran announces that the 1954 operating agreement between a consortium of oil companies and Iran will not be renewed when it expires in 1979. The consortium was formed in 1954 as a means to settle a dispute between a new ministry in Iran and the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC). The consortium included Standard Oil of New Jersey, Standard Oil of California, SOCONY-Vacuum, the Texas Company, Gulf, Royal Dutch-Shell, the Compagnie Francaise de Petroles, and the AIOC.
Feb 28
Iraq and IPC reach an agreement on compensation for nationalization.
Mar
Special Rule No. 1 reimposes mandatory (Phase II) price controls on the 23 largest oil companies. Smaller companies, representing 5 percent of the market, enjoy uncontrolled prices.
Mar 16
Shah of Iran and Consortium members agrees to nationalize all assets immediately in return for an assured 20-year supply of Iranian oil.
Mar 16-17
OPEC discusses raising prices to offset decline of U.S. dollar value.
Apr 1
OPEC increases posted prices by 5.7 percent.
Apr 18
U.S. Government ends Mandatory Oil Import Program. Program, established in 1959 by President Eisenhower, had limited imports of crude and product east of the Rocky Mountains to a percentage of domestic crude production.
Jun 1
Eight OPEC countries raise posted prices by 11.9 percent.
Jun 11
Libya nationalizes Bunker Hunt concession; Nigeria acquires 35 percent participation in Shell-BP concession.
Jun 14
Nixon administration imposes 60-day economy-wide price freeze, superseding Special Rule No. 1 for oil companies.
Aug
Libya nationalizes 51 percent of Occidental Petroleum concession and of the Oasis consortium.
Aug 17
President Nixon's Cost of Living Council imposes two-tier price ceiling on crude petroleum sales: production of "old" oil (that produced at or below 1972 levels from existing wells) to be sold at March 1973 prices plus 35 cents; production of "new" oil (that produced above 1972 levels from existing wells and oil produced from new wells) to be sold at uncontrolled prices.
Sep 1
Libya nationalizes 51 percent of nine other companies' concessions: Esso, Libya/Sirte, Mobil, Shell, Gelensberg, Texaco, SoCal, Libyan-American (ARCO), and Grace.
Sep 5-9
Conference of less developed countries approves forming "producers' associations," calls for withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Arab lands.
Sep 15-16
OPEC supports price hikes and designates six Gulf countries to negotiate collectively with companies over prices. Other members to negotiate individually.
Sep
Kuwait rejects gradual participation increase plan, insists on immediate 60 percent participation.
Oct 6
Beginning of fourth Arab-Israeli War.
Oct 7
Iraq nationalizes Exxon and Mobil shares in Basrah Petroleum Company representing 23.75 percent equity in the company.
Oct 16
The Gulf Six (Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) unilaterally raise the posted price of Saudi Light marker crude 17 percent from $3.12 to $3.65 per barrel and announce production cuts.
Oct 17
OPEC oil ministers agree to use oil weapon in Arab-Israeli War, mandate cut in exports, and recommend embargo against unfriendly states.
Oct 19-20
Saudi Arabia, Libya, and other Arab states proclaim an embargo on oil exports to the United States.
Nov 5
Arab producers announce 25 percent cut in production below September levels. Further cuts of five percent are threatened.
Nov 18
Arab oil ministers cancel the scheduled 5 percent cut in production for EEC.
Nov 27
President Nixon signs the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act (EPAA). Authorizes petroleum price, production, allocation and marketing controls.
Dec 9
Arab oil ministers announce a further production cut of 5 percent for January for non-friendly countries.
Dec 22-24
OPEC Gulf Six decides to raise the posted price of marker crude from $5.12 to $11.65 per barrel effective January 1, 1974.

Several weeks ago I posted about the Co-Incidence of Gore promoting both affordable prescription drugs for everyone and medical aid for all children.

I pointed out that this is a "Setup" to expand the drugging and subsequent dumbing down of the nation's children through pscyhotropic drugs, claimed to be required to handle mental disorders, which in fact do not exist. There is no such thing as "Attention Deficit Disorder", and the host of other invented �maladies', that have been created to sell ultra high profit drugs to both private individuals and government. Do you realize that every time your thinking about something on this Forum when you appear to be working, or talking about something else, you "have" ADD. Any thinking person is going to have the "Absent minded professor" syndrome to some degree. Of course it's really �elsewhere minded' but it is as normal as can be. Kids tune out all sorts of drivel, or maybe even valid data, for the thoughts of their own universe, This is probably why Einstein flunked geometry; he was thinking of something else. Today, his musings of E=MC squared during math class would have earned him a jug of Ritalin.

So, I see a BIG difference between the candidates/parties. They are beholding to, and promoting, different special interests. (Drug company profits are part of the program, the target is the minds of the children). Whatever abuse the Republicans subject us to for the next four years, thinking men will be able to demonstrate a way to fix it. If Gore and his wife Mrs.Tip-kids-over, have their way, the next generation will be too out of it to get anyone's message. There are even, right now, articles about extensive ignorance and apathy amongst the young of voting age.

Someone suggested earlier today, that Gore needed an �airbrush' because Tipper was near by. No, no! When I described the Rolling Stone situation to Robin, she said. "He's responding to being photographed for a magazine cover." These people will drug the next generation into oblivion!!! NOTHING threatens the survival of free society more than this one potential.
If these guys aren't voted out, people and Forums like us will be preaching to a very small choir indeed.

Tonight I was filling out my voting form and thinking about that "Non-voting majority" and the "Only one vote"syndrome." But as I worked my way through the candidates, including a Libertarian State Treasurer, Attorney General and Secretary of State for Oregon, and through 25 referendum measures; I felt that I was "Making a difference." And it wasn't just the fact of one more vote: I realized that I was tuning in to that "Invisible universe" where we connect at the other level. Whether one assigns responsibility to a Deity or to themselves as a spiritual being, they are aware that communication is not just physical. On that "Other wave-length" we have a different form of "one vote" That vote is very public, it is out there being perceived. Beliefs can be felt by others and their own, re-awakened. All of us, can today, make a very big difference.

Hope and Apathy are both contagious!









View Yesterday's Discussion.

Remember: Vote early and often !

(smile)

$hifty

On the matter of local mob action to deny the profit of land to its owner by all manner of obstruction available to people and their local government. I have participated in such an action before. Part of the problem, perhaps the greater part, is the fact of cost shifting.
The issue: A development of land parcels in a purely residential suburban area, where the developer had attempted to build multifamily housing.

The problems of cost shifting:
-The narrow state "highway" and county roads leading to a few older subdivisions would have their traffic double and traffic could only be kept flowing with the addition of two new signals. Travel time from the nearby highway exit would increase from 4 minutes to 10 minutes. Road construction and maintenance costs would be increased.
-The local school district would have been flooded by new students if the developer had his way. The result would have been a new cost for the existing tax base of largely older households with many empty nesters and some with older children.
-The county water and sewer district would have had to increase pumping and cause the water table to drop further, thus denying most of the people the use of their wells. Capital costs would have gone up and new treatment facilities constructed.

The fees for all the above could be calculated and the costs moved over to those introducing them. However, experience shows that has not been the case. The local scene is filled with these kinds of situations, where the local "authorities" purposefully underestimated the costs in order to bring the developers and commercial activity which increase the resources at the politicians� and authorities� disposal through an increase in the tax base and an increase in the size of the various departments and the opportunities to hire in family and friends as well as gain an excuse to claim a higher wage.

The problems shown in this are as follows:
1. Obviously, the government should not be running sewer and water systems, nor schools, nor should the government build roads or maintain them. Let the users decide how much they want to pay and for what.

2. Here there are two approaches to the remaining problem, if government were not doing these things:
(a) Then the issue would have been moot, the additional travel time, the load on local schools, the rest of the costs threatening the current residents would simply have been simple market forces and the newcomers could not be considered as anything other than that. As impersonal market forces that bring prices of schooling up, clog up roads and lower the water pressure or raise water bills because of the water/sewer companies enjoying a better demand environment and needing to finance the capital expenditure needed to service the new customers, same for electric and gas utilities etc...
Or on the other hand,
(b) Even if government is not causing cost shifts, then there still remains the issue of their being PARTICULAR people causing the decrease in living standards for the earlier residents, and these would be in the "right" in order to obtain compensation from the developers etc..

3. With government controlled services there and the cost shifting an obvious practical result of the expansion, what is appropriate behavior on the part of the existing residents? They try to drive a compromise with the developers and the government "officials" (that never tire of telling the residents that they don't HAVE TO listen to their concerns, presenting themselves as benevolent and all powerful, and collaborate with the buttered side of the toast � the developer's side) . The compromise is a restricted development and a lessened cost shift in the near future, with higher prices for the developer's government fees and for his product. Why does the official compromise with the residents in his district? Because elections may hinge on the recent history of decisions, and if these decisions were severely unpopular, then the political boss of the future may have campaigned on taking out the "officials" or their function.

On the matter of 2a vs. 2b, I side with 2a because the result does not include a litigious � and therefore governmental � process. The developers may be sued if property values demonstrably dropped as a result of a nuisance or damage any of their particular projects have caused, but would not be pestered by an infinite variety of claims resulting from the economic effects of the developer's projects or the customers who bought the new housing.

On the matter of 3, the point where I may differ with O�Roark's view is that of this being both an action of avoiding undue costs being forced upon the existing residents, and an attempt to control someone else's property. It is slightly more complex than his example.

Home - Yahoo! - My Yahoo! - News Alerts - Help




Bush & Gore
get the latest!

Paid Political Advertising - Click Here!



Tuesday November 7 1:06 AM ET
Bush Wins Vote in Tiny N.Hampshire Hamlet

DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (Reuters) - Republican presidential nominee George W.
Bush scored a symbolic victory Tuesday, capturing the vote in one tiny New Hampshire town
that traditionally casts one of the first ballots in the U.S. election.

Voters in Dixville Notch voted just after 0001 EST on Tuesday, backing Bush over Gore by a
margin of 21 to five, election officials said. Green Party nominee Ralph Nader got one vote,
they said.

Located in New Hampshire's northern White Mountains, the town is a popular tourist destination
and is happy for the publicity of being among the first to vote in presidential elections.

Dixville Notch and Hart's Location take advantage of a state election law that allows
communities to close the polls after all registered voters have cast their ballots. Results were
not immediately available for Hart's Location.

All's Quiet on the Western Front.
Well, only a few more hours and we'll see if the American electorate
is as dumb as they've always seemed to be in the past. Americans are
suckers for slick tv commercials, demagogues, liars, philanderers,
drunks, junkies, and other scoundrels. It's amazing that our country
has lasted as long as it has. So I guess that says something about
leaving it all up to us dummies, to choose (unwisely) the lesser of
whatever evils are put before us. Sort it all out. Choose a winner.
Choose a loser. Then get on with our lives.

A friend e-mailed me recently: "I don't care
who wins, and I haven't cared since I was a fifth grader."

And I responded:

Let's see: Fifth grade is usually age 10. If you were born in 1940,
that means you dropped out at the presidential election of 1950.
That's odd. Truman won in 1948. Eisenhower in 1952. Maybe that's
why you didn't care who won in 1950. There was nobody running.
Freudian would be pleased.

On the PBS NewsHour tonight, they ran a segment about Washington State's
new method of postal-mail balloting, and how it will take Olympia
until about Friday to count all the mailed-in ballots to know who
won what. And in case Washington's electoral votes are needed to
determine the national outcome, it could be an interesting and long
long week. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and instead is more
like the usual Presidential Election: Where the winner is declared
and accepts, and the loser concedes, all on national tv, *before*
the polls have even closed in our wonderful State.

It makes alot of sense, and leaves us with no feelings of guilt
whatsoever, knowing that our vote was immaterial, and so we can
feel comfortable for the next four years, knowing that it wasn't
our fault, that "that idiot" got elected. Thank gosh for remoteness
and the Pacific Time Zone.

ThaiGold

I hope we are on the same wavelength about this hyperflation/deflation thing. I feel that your answers are not quite answering my question, but perhaps my questions are not well stated.

I was developing property in the 70s, during which time there was a credit squeeze. Within a period of 2 years property prices had sank by up to 70% as a result of banks recalling their loans. That also had the effect of bankrupting buisinesses other then those in the property market. I dont see how you see that as inflationary.
Admitedly oil was sky high, but that was the only thing suffering from inflation.

Another oil shock is not going to cause general stagflation or hyperflation. It will have the effect of shocking the already fragile and over leveraged economic climate, sending it into spiralling deflation.

thanks for your previous detailed reply.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/06/tracking.poll/index.htmlHere's the "final" Poll numbers, from the CNN Website, for
all the major polls.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/06/tracking.poll/index.html

As you read them, remember to "adjust" them for the liberal
media's skew-factor in favor of their prefered candidate and
against their despised candidate. As usual. About 4 percent
in each respective direction.

----------------------------------------- Bush Gore
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 47% 45%
ABC News 49% 45%
Washington Post 48% 45%
MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby 47% 46%

Save these for your reference, and compare them to the
actual election results Tuesday night. You will see that
such polls are fudged relentlessly.

ThaiGold

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7749-2000Oct24.htmlTurkey Hunter's link above deserves a repost IMO as, contrary to Farfels comment, this could very well be one of those 11th hour resolutions they sneak through at the last minute when no-one is watching.
The creation of the FED was done in such a manner I believe!

As far as Goldstocks go, it's long been my assumption that the GFMS guesstimate of above ground Au (130k tons) was a bit of a furphy and I reckon you could double that. The kicker for me was in providing their stats, they EVEN included King Tut's Sarcophagus (sp) but "estimated" a couple of thousand years production. The irony I thought at the time was beautiful.
Bottom line - What does it matter. The bulk of it is in strong hands now as witness the lack of Physical "to-market". Underhanded tactics - as may very well be happening right now (see above link) must be guarded against, so keep you eye's open.
Good luck with your decision making processes and "Make sure you VOTE"

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/06/clinton.debtrelief.ap/index.htmlAttn: Topaz & Turkey Hunter:

Here's another link to that new IMF debt relief item that
F*arfel mistook for the previous one of a few months ago.
This appears to another one, rushed thru Congress when
nobody was looking. Legislators at their Best.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/06/clinton.debtrelief.ap/index.html

[snippets]
Clinton celebrates decision to forgive some debts of poor countries
November 6, 2000
Web posted at: 6:56 PM EST (2356 GMT)
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Calling it "good for our souls," President Clinton on Monday signed a foreign aid bill that supplies $435 million to forgive debts of the world's poorest countries...
Clinton said the bill, would free poor nations from crushing financial obligations...
The money was contained in an already-signed $14.9 billion foreign aid bill...
With the U.S. funding, the International Monetary Fund expects to meet its goal of providing 20 of the world's poorest countries with debt relief by Dec. 31, officials said...
"I believe that this will put our country squarely on the side of humanity for a very, very long time to come," Clinton said.
Those who had pressed for debt relief included a diverse group _ including Pope John Paul II, singer Bono of the rock group U2 and international relief agencies such as Oxfam...
"It shows that when we get the pope and the pop stars all singing on the same sheet of music, our voices do carry to the heavens," Clinton said.
The president praised the bipartisan coalition that helped push the bill through Congress...
[unsnip]

Bye!

UK BOE: Gold auction 3.3 times subscribed; allots 804,000 oz. BOE says bids were received for 2.670 mln oz of UK gold UK's BOE allots all auctioned gold at $264.30/oz

Black Blade: Good afternoon! I should be back in the States soon, from the "Project from Hell!" It's a long story. I go to Bangkok for a couple of days and then to Hong Kong. There is plenty to say about the PGM situation as well. The Russkies have all but given up on trying to meet their obligations for deliveries. The Natural Gas situation could get very interesting this winter as well. I will get to that next week when I return. However, I will be busy for a while.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlBank of England Sells 25 Tons of Gold at $264.30 an Ounce

London, Nov. 7 ( Bloomberg ) -- The Bank of England said it sold 25 metric tons of gold at $264.30 an ounce in the ninth of a series of auctions to halve the U.K.'s gold reserves by 2004.

The central bank sold 803,600 ounces at 55 cents above the price for immediate delivery in London at 11:30 a.m., when bidding closed. Offers were submitted for a total of 2.67 million ounces, or 83.4 tons of gold, making a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.3.

Today's auction marked a reversal from the two previous sales when lackluster demand forced the government to sell bullion at a below-market market price. Demand for bullion at the auctions had steadily fallen, signaling a waning of investor interest. Demand at today's auction exceeded levels reached at three last auctions.

Since July last year, the bank has sold 200 metric tons as part of a plan to shed 415 tons, or 58 percent, of its gold reserves and buy assets that offer a higher return, such as government bonds.

At the last auction on Sept. 19, the bank sold 25 tons for $270.60 an ounce. On July 12, it sold 25 tons at $279.75 an ounce, after auctioning the same amount on May 23 for $275.25 an ounce.

Nov/07/2000 7:28 ET

For more stories from Bloomberg News, click here.

( C ) Copyright 2000 Bloomberg L.P.

Gold should crawl up now.

Voter turnout is heavy. Lots of people lined up at 6:30 AM EST.

Joel Skousen
WORLD AFFAIRS ELECTION BRIEF--November 6, 2000

Special Election Brief

We have witnessed a tremendous amount of public opinion manipulation during this campaign season. The good news is that the Powers That Be (PTB) must still resort to manipulation because they do not have absolute control over the ballot counting process. Each state has its own ballot counting system and they differ from state to state. Since there is no central federal election computer, the numbers can't be fudged easily. Some illegalities no doubt occur in larger metropolitan areas such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and others.--cities that have long been ruled by corrupt democratic machines. Generally, however, the PTB use carefully crafted polls and managed sound bites to induce people on the margins (the undecided or malleable vote) to move toward the desired direction. This is usually sufficient to change the results by 5-10%. If necessary, they also make ample use of skewed exit polls of East coast voters to help create a bandwagon effect on the West coast where polls are still open. The bad news is that the establishment doesn't need to falsify the actual ballot count because the public is so uneducated about the critical issues, it isn't necessary. Besides, the PTB control both major political parties at the national level, and, thus, they get their way whoever wins.

In this campaign the media has propagated sufficiently negative coverage about Al Gore (his ridiculous claims to personal prowess) to leave him nothing but the hard-core Democratic vote. Still, this segment of voters is very substantial--so substantial, in fact, that it's getting hard for the establishment to get Team B (the Republicans) elected from time to time, whenever they need a phony conservative like George Bush Sr. and Jr. to lead other conservatives down the road to compromise. I think the establishment intends to hand the next administration a depression of mammoth proportions, and they want the Republicans to be in office so they (and the "free market") can take the blame for it. This is why the establishment is trying desperately to gain a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Not only will it make it easier for President Geo. W. Bush to weasel out of his promises of limited government, but it will also make it easier to force conservatives to accept a heavy dose of government intervention in order to "save the country" from depression.

Some of you are still living under the false hope that Geo. W. Bush really is a true conservative. He is not. He works for the establishment powers and always has. He had the same kind of insider help that made Bush Sr. and VP Dick Cheney wealthy, so he doesn't owe any allegiance to the Constitution or to American citizens who need it to protect their fundamental rights. He will sell us down the globalist river just like Al Gore, only a little slower. If you go back and read my prior briefs on all the powerful insiders who advise him and work within his campaign, you'll understand what I mean. [See the Forum Archives on my website: http://www.joelskousen.com which contain all the back issues. This is a closed archive except for subscribers to this newsletter so contact: webmaster@joelskousen.com for a username and password if you are a paying subscriber so you can access these briefs.]

The telltale signs of corruption left over from his father's administration are made no more evident than by the presence of Richard Armitage on his staff, waiting in the wings for a high administrative appointment after the election. Armitage has been fingered by numerous sources as the chief manager of the CIA's drug running operations from the days of Vietnam. The laundering of his dark side career began during the Bush administration (Bush was his boss at CIA) when he was made Asst. Sec. of Defense. Besides, if George W. were a real hard-core conservative, the press would crucify him relentlessly. Sure, they air some dirt on George W., like the 24 year-old DUI charge, but it's only the tip of the iceberg. According to a variety of sources, there were several DUI offenses that were expunged from his records, along with some use of hard drugs, and multiple affairs with women in his earlier years. Leaking only one of the DUIs served merely to get the issue of corruption behind him and allow people to play their "tolerant" role, as nudged by selective polling.

Another piece of evidence of the insiders� intention to help elect Bush is how the media has allowed Ralph Nader and the Green Party to climb into the 5% plus range. Nader had hardly any support in 1996 when running against Clinton, and suddenly he is a media star. Even the supposed negative news coverage about Nader taking votes from Gore was NOT intended, as claimed, to scare Democrats into switching back to Gore, but to rather to allow the media to have an excuse to give Nader increased coverage. It also, conveniently, helps the liberals rationalize away away Gore's coming defeat, without making it appear as if the Left was defeated. Predictably, Nader's support has increased with the publicity--if you can believe the media manipulated polls. No matter, perception is everything in bending an election result. You'll note that the media has given little or no coverage to Buchanan and his potential for taking votes away from Bush. In fact, Nader's candidacy was only emphasized after Buchanan's take-over of the Reform Party. It was necessary, I believe, to create a counter-force on the Left to pull votes away from Gore in order to help Bush. They also trotted out Ross Perot (the spoiler of George Bush Sr.'s reelection bid) to endorse George W. On Larry King's show, Perot was so effusive about "W." that it reeked of a setup. Perot is never that complimentary about anyone--except himself.


All of this is not to say that every liberal journalist is a knowing part of a media conspiracy to elect Geo. W. Bush. There is a conspiracy, but it only operates on a "knowing" basis at the highest echelons of power. Once in a while it leaks out that top media moguls have met together to plan strategy and distort the news (as in the Elian Gonzales affair). I believe they actually take orders from others higher up in the unelected global hierarchy, though there are precious few leaks from this level of collusion. The lower levels media people are all hired liberal hacks and predictable yes-men or women, so they don't have to be let in on the plans for direct manipulation. So, while none of the media producers need any motivation to promote Gore, they do have to restrain their reporters from attacking Bush in ways which would destroy him. Producers can do this by simply telling their liberal writers to be more "balanced." Few remember that there were no orders to be balanced when Goldwater ran against LBJ, so by turning on or off the "balance" mode they can allow a "conservative" to win or not to win.

Personally, I plan to vote for one of the third party candidates who will champion real liberty and constitutional rights. I made a promise to myself after the disappointments and horrible compromises during the Reagan administration that I would never again vote for the "lesser of two evils." When the PTB control both major parties we are headed for a total loss of national sovereignty anyway--so we might as well vote for people of real principle. Then we won't ever have to be embarrassed to tell our children we voted for the Republican con-men who sold us down the river. Many people have been induced to vote for Bush in the anticipation that he will appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court. Don't bet on it. The only reason the liberal wing, which controls the Republican Party, allowed the conservatives to win the platform debate on abortion is because they knew in advance that the Supreme Court would never overturn Roe vs. Wade. Candidates for Supreme Court positions may say they are "reluctant" about abortion, but they will only vote against it when the full Court is assured that pro-abortion forces have the majority. Like the political process, the court system is also rigged and manipulated.

Americans have 3 very good alternatives for presidential candidates to vote for on Tuesday. Howard Phillips of the Constitution Party is the most hard-line, uncompromising and principled of the three--on virtually all issues. He is also running on the Independent American Party ticket in some states. Being the most principled and constitutionally strict, he only has a narrow support base. But, if you want to vote on principle, Howard will never disappoint you.

Pat Buchanan is the conservative Reform Party candidate. I know Pat, as well, and he is absolutely firm in opposing any loss of sovereignty to the New World Order. But I have a few disagreements with Pat on issues like tariffs and his Israel policy. Pat is dominant and strong minded, which is good when he is right on an issue, but it is a great disadvantage when he is wrong. It is almost impossible to get access to Pat to change his mind once he decides on a bad policy. In contrast, Howard Phillips will always change his mind if you demonstrate the truth of another position. Pat's occasional errors come from his attempts to find too much common ground with blue collar workers who are easily corrupted by the lure of benefits or job protection. While I agree with Pat that NAFTA, GATT and the WTO are bad, true free trade (except when slave labor is involved) is a real benefit to all consumers, and is their fundamental right as well. I think Pat will learn in this election that he can't out-promise the Democrats in terms of benefits and protectionism. Highly compromising strategies used to attain a broad base of support are corruptive of his party's core constituency and their understanding of consistant political principles. In contrast, I believe in cultivating and educating a strong ideological base of support. In a long-term scenario where good people become overwhelmingly outnumbered in a raw democracy, we need an uncompromising base of people (a remnant) who, by virtue of their stalwert behavior, are worthy of being saved.

Harry Browne of the Libertarian Party is also a good alternative, except regarding the prosecution of abortion. He knows the issues about national sovereignty and the Constitution. The Libertarian platform is ideologically strong in its policies for limiting government to the defense of fundamental rights. But, Libertarians can go to either side of the abortion debate (a fundamental rights issue) depending upon whether they believe the fetus is a person or not. Harry believes the fetus is a person, but (ironically) only wants to get government out of the abortion issues--not stop the killing. He points out, correctly, that the Constitution grants no power to the Feds to do anything about abortion, but he fails to recognize that some level of government must have the right and duty to stop it because it is a violation of a the baby's fundamental right to life. So, while Harry has good personal values on abortion, he would not use his leadership to stop it.

I personally plan to vote for Howard Phillips, but if you want to make a statement of protest against Republican compromises and the sellouts, you may want to vote for one of the two much larger third parties. Only the Reform or Libertarian Parties have a chance of showing up on the big boards during election night, and even that is slim given the prejudice against third parties in the media. Whatever you choose, stand for something other than compromise. The longer we indulge in illusions of hope (that the Republicans will save us) the longer we procrastinate the inevitable preparations we must make to prepare ourselves and our families for the hardships and possible tribulation the global leaders have in store for those who will ultimately resist.

With all due respect, could you please enlighten me on "the true facts."

Yep, Gold all others B.S. story ended.

Sir, you cut me to the quick but, I digress. I agree with you completely. Sorry I did not express my views more transparently. I am known to confuse people often. Only Republicans and Libertarians get my vote!

Is not to see who is right, but is left.

@ Cavan Man # 40757

My friend:

You were a bit confusing in your post concerning the Carnahan situation. I know you very well and you are most admirable. I was sure that you meant to be kind and to give the benefit of the doubt to Mrs. Carnahan and her supporters. I just thought that maybe you did not give Ashcroft the benefit of the doubt also. That special hell for fence sitters will not have you for a resident.

Because I knew you, I posted, in order that you might clarify for those who do not know you. It has proven to be the most successful post for me on this forum. The purpose was accomplished. You have clarified. We are in this for the long haul. Accumulate and hold. Exit when you feel you can live with your gains. Only do not exit 100%.

Very respectfully,

hbm

The problem with the major media in this country is that they most generally get the story quite wrong. The American people keep lapping up this drivel like kittens after milk, and the media keeps skewing the news.

Tomorrow's headline: BUSH WINS BY A LANDSLIDE!
(I'm predicting at least 340 electorial votes for Dubya.)

This prediction is posted not to make me look like some sort of sage, but rather to point out how wrong the information that most people rely on has become. That is what this discussion group is about. Reality. Like real money. Truth is golden while the major media manufacture "truth" out of paper. Question Authority!

tvx

Your prediction:

"Tomorrow's headline: BUSH WINS BY A LANDSLIDE!
(I'm predicting at least 340 electoral votes for Dubya.) "

My response:

I do hope you are right. My prediction is based on what I here in my little world from real people. I always discount the propagandized press to nothing short of distortion of the facts. We who have had our hard-earned assets reallocated to those who would gladly accept it are greatly outnumbered. Our only hope is a small voter turnout by the socialists in this country. I do not expect that to happen.

If Bush is declared the winner do not be surprised to hear Gore howling 'foul' and contesting the results. We may not know the answer for a while. It may be that close. I will not rest any better until the day a new president is sworn in no matter who is declared the winner. I suspect that Bush may never be sworn in should he win the election. Klinton cannot afford such an event. Should that happen I would expect that a deal will have been cut between TPTB the puppet (Bush) administration which will be coming in. If so Marius will be proven right concerning his position on what Bush really stands for. The only way we will know the answer that question is if Bush gets in and uses his good office to protect Clinton and Gore.


Respectfully,

hbm

Gross Public Debt (US Treasury Dept.)

Year ended 09-30-2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86
Year ended 09-30-1999 $5,656,270,901,615.43
Most recent Deficit--------$17,907,308,271.43

A deficit is not a surplus!!!

I guess it depends on what the word is is.

Bush is a liar. Gore is a liar.

"Satan is a liar and the father of it." John 8:44

Marius is a truth teller.

hbm

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
You have to choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the government. And with due respect to these gentlement, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.

--George Bernard Shaw (1856 - 1950)

Sir, are you TC?

A question:

--George Bernard Shaw (1856 - 1950).

I'll have to do some research. My memory tells me that G. B. Shaw was involved in the early years with the Fabian Socialist movement and was a main-liner. Was he not one of the important American connections with the British Fabianists?

When did he make the statement concerning gold and the capitalist system? Was it before, during or after he became a Socialist? I am afraid I would not trust this propagandist as far as I can spit. The quote is very interesting. Sounds good. I must discover the context etc. It was my impression that Shaw's most powerful vote was cast in favor of the gradual destruction of capitalism.

Respectfully,

hbm

Is coiling like a snake to strike fear into the hearts of shorts. Will the snake strike today, or will he go back under his rock for another day or two? We do not know when he will strike, so you must live in fear if you are his chosen victim. All shorts are marked!

While we are on the subject of GBS,I have heard that this famous quote of RFK was from a line in a Shaw novel. Does anyone know?

"Most men look at things as they are and say 'Why.' I look at things that never were and say 'Why not?"

Black Gold, wishes to remain black and silent. I don't see any reason, why it should be managed with derivatives, to attract unnecessary attention on the fisc's eyes/ears. The main purpose was to stay hidden and increase, silently, in value over time.

Mister Gold (Sinclair) and Paul van Eeden, haven't learned us nothing, so far, about POG's 20 year decline.

After some strong ECB statements about Euro...POG shot up 2 $ (264,25$ > 266,25$ ) NY open, minus 1 3/4$.Again.!

http://www.c-span.org/campaign2000/electionnight.asp
Live cameras at the campaign headquarters and On-line election coverage.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/4200011/default.htmlRandy (@ The Tower) (11/04/00; 17:11:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 40598)
"A sort of homecoming"
After what was for me an atypically lengthy bit of traveling, I must say it felt nice to return earlier in the past week to this outpost with the "Golden View" of the world. The good sense of seeing The Tower loom in the distance as I made my approach was surpassed only by that of once again grasping the iron ring to coax open the heavy wooden door and reunite with the essence of calm and understanding that seems to permeate everything and everyone that operates in the space within these walls (and occasionally upon the roof, too.) ...[continued at link]
----

Regarding Shaw as a political creature, I cannot shed additional light on your question. I know only Shaw the writer, and little at that. But as things stand, I feel both the design and essence of the quote remain compelling, regardless of the particular circumstances of era and personality that gave it birth.

The importance of the gold count is that it is the denominator of the global economy and thus signifies the boundary of expansion. It is also dictates Kondratief wave amplitudes.

In short, when push comes to shove, the gold above ground is THE money supply. Therefore, it is important to find out what it is.

That simple.

Another point is the growth rate in supply - the arrival of historically enormous supply during the early 80s, according to the Phillipine story, is an extremely useful instrument for the determination of overall gold supply demand coefficients as calculated in terms of other goods and in currencies. This period saw the rapid growth of production as old explorations and ongoing investments bore fruit, and the practice of high grading and mine "hedging" both took form. This is also the period that saw initiation of a wierd relationship between international interest rates and POG. This latter relationship relates the price of gold to the interest rate of the most significant lending nation - POG in terms of their interest rate. The nations with the most substantial capital and export outflows get a historically favorable price for gold in proportion to the interest rate they charge. Right now, this puts Japan as the main beneficiary.

Gold balances are thus very important in understanding what amounts of gold are being used to settle international trade. Like FOA, I think every dollar on foreign CB books is considered by them a pure write-off, and a total loss with no hope of recovery due to the expectation of the US eventually inflating all of it away into worthlessness. If that is the case, then each CB would join with its private sector in seeking actual settlement in tangibles; real-estate, corporations, physical security backed debt paper, and gold. If the CIA gained control of the old Japanese burried gold, then it would stand to reason that the gold would be used to keep the dollar system afloat. It would also explain the sudden explosion in gold derivatives into the 93-95 gold bull market and beyond - indicating that the actual gold was running out and having to satisfy demand at the fixed terms of the above relationship by displacing gold from existing stock into the markets with the use of paper substitutes drawing on future production and/or finds of burried gold.

So it is all important.

US$ + Debt + Oil + Speculation : are the ingredients of a very special coctail. A coctail with a delicious taste so far. The proportions of the ingredients is slowly changing.
Taste will detoriate. Rising POO, will lift the dollar-price, in contradiction with its detoriating intrinsic value, because of increasing debt and imploding speculation. A very conflicting situation. Impossible to balance these opposite forces. This is "THE" pro-gold argumentation in a nutshell.
$-price-up and value down. Underestimated disturbance of rising POO. Speculation and Debt extremes. None of the 4 ingredients is ready to compromise. POO, might be the one, but I doubt it very much. If we chart the 4 ingredients...none of them shows a clear breakpoint, today.
$-debt-oil-Dow/Nas : still holding up. Confirmed by POG, still down. At what height are we running out of oxygen, and at what dept is the heat unbearable ?

Another tradgey for the dot.coms may be coming to an end .

From high of 14 todays' price of 1/4 could reverse after Mick Foley of WWF may step in and buy sock puppet.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton103000.htmlVery good read!

As best as I can tell, the Third World foreign aid bill described in the CNN news release is exactly the same as the one discussed last year.

It finally received formal approval, having left the realm of discussion and debate for implementation in the real world.

The IMF gold sales were designed to preclude physical gold leaving the IMF coffers and reaching the public markets. This occurred after heated protests from various Third World nations to the effect that such sales would harm their economies.

Specifically, certain Third World nations sold their gold to the IMF, utilized the funds to pay down their near-maturity debts, thereafter the IMF proceeded to sell the very same gold back to those original gold-selling nations. The IMF then used the proceeds of those final gold sales to make NEW long term loans to those same Third World nations.

The net effect: no physical gold reached the public markets, the entire transaction being simply an intricate accounting mechanism to clean up the debts of major bank creditors while extending new long term loans to the Third World nations.

There is no evidence that the IMF changed its methodology of selling gold (for balance sheet purposes only), as such a change would have required a formal vote in Congress (I know of no such vote taking place), and the Republicans announced they would be opposed to actual phyical gold sales hitting the public markets, that would harm both gold mining companies and of course, gold producing Third World nations.

Thanks

F*

Bridge News] Taipei--Nov. 7--Foreign exchange reserves held by Taiwan's Central Bank of China (CBC) fell to U.S. $109.056 billion at the end of October, down $2.611 billion from the end of September, according to data announced Tuesday by the CBC.
----
Would it surprise anyone to think that the reserves being spent were U.S.-denominated paper assets? After all, the CBC's forex reserves were up $6.376 billion over the level at this same time last year.

Meanwhile, we also have this news showing heightened gold demand from Taiwan:

[Bridge News] Taipei--Nov. 7--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 7.161 tonnes in October, compared with 5.233 tonnes in October 1999, a statement released by the Ministry of Finance Tuesday indicated.

Dr. Wong say: man in china have gold in pocket. feel secure and cocky all day.

You are correct. Dr. Wong exists (cboe 1 financial plaza chicago) Taiwan has been buying gold ever since I first made a post on usa.

http://www.crbindex.com/IRAQ:Ceyhan oil loadings halted 12-24 hours on euro dispute: UN
New York--Nov. 7--1226 ET--Iraq suspended loading of crude oil Tuesday at
the Turkish port of Ceyhan until letters of credit for the purchase of oil are
converted from U.S. dollars into euros, a U.N. spokeswoman said. The suspension
is of loadings, at a port that handles more than a third of Iraqi oil exports,
and is expected to last 12 to 24 hours, she said.
( Story .18989 )

"To vote for the (so called)Libertarian cause is to bury ones head in the sand & to deny the true facts.
America has a golden opportunity for change .... or for more of "the same" ....the choice is
yours....use it prudently." -Netking msg#: 40738

Hmm. I halfway completely agree with Netking!!

I guess I'm a so-called libertarian, and I've had my so-called head out of the so-called sand since I discovered the libertarian philosophy in 1974. I believe the true facts are that:

1. If you think voting for a somewhat charming but dyslexic conman over an arrogant delusional hypocrite will make any significant change in the gigantic behemoth the so-called federal government has become, you clearly have your thinking-organ container solidly planted beneath the traditional beach covering.

2. The Democrat-Republican axis has put the country into the shape it's in. Not the Democratic White House alone. And not the recent Republican Congress alone. They did it together.

Which brings me to the part of Netking's post I completely agree with:

"America has a golden opportunity for change ....
or for more of "the same" ....the choice is yours
....use it prudently." -Netking

Clearly you will avoid change and get "more of the same" if you vote either democratic OR republican. Are there other options? The choice is yours....use it prudently.

Regards, j.

http://www2.marketwatch.com/newscenter/default.asp?topic=3§ion=MWNews&doctype=rt11:14 am ET MARKET EXPECTS API TO POST 2.8 MLN TO 3.1 MLN-BARREL RISE IN CRUDE STOCKS - BRIDGE SURVEY
11:14 am ET MARKET EXPECTS API TO POST 1.1 MLN TO 1.5 MLN-BARREL RISE IN DISTILLATES STOCKS - BRIDGE
11:14 am ET MARKET EXPECTS API TO POST 1 MLN TO 1.3 MLN-BARREL FALL IN GASOLINE STOCKS - BRIDGE

JUST LIKE POLES........LETS SEE WHO WINS

http://www2.marketwatch.com/newscenter/default.asp?topic=3§ion=MWNews&doctype=rt4:46 pm ET API POSTS 35,000-BARREL RISE IN LAST WEEK'S CRUDE STOCKS - BRIDGE NEWS
4:46 pm ET API POSTS 1.05 MILLION-BARREL RISE IN LAST WEEK'S GASOLINE STOCKS - BRIDGE
4:46 pm ET API POSTS 1.347 MILLION-BARREL RISE IN LAST WEEK'S DISTILLATE STOCKS - BRIDGE

I posted on this Taiwanese Importation of gold yesterday on 40671, because it is of interest to me. Thank you both for your confirmations.

To my mind Oilman, Oro, and David G, as far as he is involved, are tilting at ghosts re the total gold supply because of situations like this one. (not that I don't believe it is a well founded concern.) In my opinion, somewhat more than half the regular, regular imports of gold to Taiwan are disappearing into what might be called a quasi CB reserve that is hidden in some sort of non visible government commercial subsidiary. Half of say seven tons of gold per month starts to add up over 10 or 15 years. Say 3 tons X 12 months X say 12 years, equals 432 tons.

Do you have any further sources (other than Bridge News)regarding anything Taiwanese, such as jewellery usage, chip usage, government official gold holdings over a oeriod of years, etc.?

"GO BUSH GO".......BTW...George seeing as I'm cheering you on from another country could you please (after you clean Goree's clock)open the books of the E.S.F. for your fellow Americans and the rest of the world and show us how Greenspan and Clinton have been manipulating the Markets and especially of interest to many "The Gold Market".....Thanks. Signed----
----a temporarily ex----Yukon Gold Miner

"GO BUSH" and "GO GATA"

Quote of the day from KAPEX at Kitco:

"If you love wealth better than liberty, the tranquillity of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."-Samuel Adams,addressing British sympathizers.

Anybody you know fit that description today?.....beesting.

Indiana & Kentucky for Bush. 20 down 251 to go

Re this message from Oro.

I agree with him in that it seems impossible to place an accurate figure on
how much gold is actually available. My own guestimate is a lot higher than
his. For example, ORO would do well to read Sterling Seagrave's excellent
book THE YAMATO DYNASTY in which he discusses just one 777 Golden Lily site
at Teresa on the Philippines. The value of plunder stashed there totalled
almost $200 billion in 1944 dollar values. There were at least 172 GL
plunder sites on the Philippines by wars end. My book also shows a number
of Cambodian gold bars recovered in 1996. They formed part of a hoard that
lined the walls of a tunnel 500 metres long and were stacked one metre high.
The team that recovered these say that, all told, they recovered 100,000
bars weighing 12.5 kilograms assayed at between 20-22 carats.

Go figure.

Regards

David

You certainly have a way with words. I have to dry my eyes here, whoo! OK. well I never DID sit on the beach much in any event, but seriously, while I agree with you in principle, as you probably noticed my main thrust at the moment was voting against Ritalin and Prozac. Maybe we will have four years of rapacious political and corporate activity, but at least the children will be left out of it. Also, I don't perceive Bush's handlers as being after the same form of NWO as the Gore fiends.

Left to vote my conscience I would have either voted Constitution or written in Ron Paul.

What disturbs me about the Libertarian national party at the moment is that they sound too much like Anarchists. We haven't more then 5% of the ethics and intelligence in this population that would be needed to survive with that much Freedom. Freedom �from' is not the same as Freedom �to'.

Also, I suspect the Repubs to be little more friendly to Gold.

"The very last thing I am is an apologist for elite interests. Nor do I
have a personal financial interest in gold one way or the other, as I
mentioned yesterday. My research has been conducted over the last four and
a half years and the timing of publication is coincidental. When would be a
good time to have published, anyway? Last year? The year before that... or
next year?

Nor should my motives be in question. As Bill Murphy has made amply clear,
I have been a long-time supporter and friend of GATA and have had articles
about GATA published in a leading UK business magazine, many months before
the mainstream press even woke up to the idea that the gold price was
manipulated. Moreover, Bill and his team at GATA were not kept in the dark
about my book. I provided a preliminary advance copy to them a long time
ago - in confidence, obviously

My purpose in investigating this story had nothing to do with the gold
market or the price of gold per se but was predicated on the clear fact that
there has been an official cover-up for decades about the true quantity of
above ground stocks of gold. The focus was also on how black gold had been
used during the cold war and for personal gain and the way it moves through
the black market.

Whether people like it or not it is a story that needs telling."

Regards

David


The above is a response of David G as it relates to skepticism regarding his work as I posed it to him. auspec

Something smells. The Drudge site is down.

hbm

Yeah, all day.He WAS the only one to refuse to hold back the exit poll data. They probably zapped him.

You obviously ticked the guy off. What did you say?

I am still trying to get the totals together, and trying to understand who exactly (or at least what faction) controls what gold and how.

I'll order Mr. Guyatt's book/CDROM and read through it as soon as I can. Till then, if Mr. Guyatt can comment on the gold-currency-interest rate connection (post to Topaz), it would be much appreciated. It is a mathematical fact in particular time windows, but still leaves the question of "direction" since mathematical correlations and equations don't really have a causal direction. I believe treasuries on the national accounts are settled in gold this way, but I can't be sure which way it goes - from dollar absorption to Yen credit to gold pricing, for example, or the other way around. etc..

And...auspec, please don't doubt a journalist's motives when covering a controversial and career threatening story. It does not do your relationship any good.

Thanks again, both to you and to Mr. Guyatt.

I was just wondering. Does anybody out there have any facts as to which states have the greatest percentage of their populations on the government dole. I would include welfare and social security. Of course Florida and Arizona would probably be high in that category because of the large numbers of retired migrants.

Missouri, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisana strikes me as a few states who have a large population on pure welfare.

Can someone provide a ranking of these states. I would bet some dry powder that these particular types of states will go with Gore.

hbm

It matters very little which candidate becomes president, the same people will still determine major US policy. When people fail to see this, I am reminded of words spoken 2000 years ago - "There are none so blind as those with eyes yet cannot see."

However, there is a piece of advice for the new president, he had better get himself a good supply of Teflon suits, because when the sh*t hits the fan.........

I believe he is on to something.

hbm

Florida to Gore!

Inordinately high percentage of seniors on SS and Medicare plus Hispanics and other minorities on welfare.

hbm

Michigan to Gore

Inordinately high percentage of union workers and African Americans on welfare plus many early retirees.

hbm

Arizona to Gore

Same reasons as Florida.

hbm

Missouri to Gore

Inordinately high percentage of the population is on pure welfare.

hbm

Missouri to Gore

If I am wrong about Missouri I will go back to lurking. I heard that sigh of relief, Cavan Man.

hbm

People will vote themselves fiat as long as they see how easy it is to print and they are allowed to do so, in whatever form they are taught they are entitled to.

Please don't go away anywhere based on their mistaken non-idea of citizenship.

@ ORO, Auspec and specifically David Guyatt -

I'm hoping David G. is not fed up because of my recent posts here and on the cafe. I was expressing my
own views and left all the room for debate.

Though again, I would like to stress, that in view of todays massive and derivative paper gold markets the underlying asset becomes negligible - even if its quantity may be double or triple to common perception being (ab-)used by the powers to be - in terms of supply/demand equation, due to the fact being priced in the - up to now only seignorage Reserve - Fiat currency, which overwhelmed all hard assets for some time.

In this context I don't care how much above ground or mined gold "was" available for the "cabal" - DG's efforts in explaining the abuse via his extensive research should be more than lauded - since this excess gold has found either its home or is otherwise "mis-spent"!

It does, though, not seriously effect the fundamental equation of physical imbalances versus derivative pricing hegemony. In analogy to global GNP of some 40 trillion US$ vs 120trilion $ of derivative contracts or better bets
or even blackmail against real product(-ivity)!

Didn't want to post again on this topic before reading the book/CDROM - was denied to order on "Solari" - pse be kind enough to assist.

As I still may be taking myself for too seriously, I would be seriously aggravated for being the cause of your disdain.

Hoping this clears any misunderstanding.

Sincere regards cb2

His headline is
That Bush is ready to capture the college......

@ ORO, Auspec and specifically David Guyatt -

I'm hoping David G. is not fed up because of my recent posts here and on the cafe. I was expressing my
own views and left all the room for debate.

Though again, I would like to stress, that in view of todays massive and derivative paper gold markets the underlying asset becomes negligible - even if its quantity may be double or triple to common perception being (ab-)used by the powers to be - in terms of supply/demand equation, due to the fact being priced in the - up to now only seignorage Reserve - Fiat currency, which overwhelmed all hard assets for some time.

In this context I don't care how much above ground or mined gold "was" available for the "cabal" - DG's efforts in explaining the abuse via his extensive research should be more than lauded - since this excess gold has found either its home or is otherwise "mis-spent"!

It does, though, not seriously effect the fundamental equation of physical imbalances versus derivative pricing hegemony. In analogy to global GNP of some 40 trillion US$ vs 120trilion $ of derivative contracts or better bets
or even blackmail against real product(-ivity)!

Didn't want to post again on this topic before reading the book/CDROM - was denied to order on "Solari" - pse be kind enough to assist.

As I still may be taking myself for too seriously, I would be seriously aggravated for being the cause of your disdain.

Hoping this clears any misunderstanding.

Sincere regards cb2

ORO,
Something must be lost in translation as DG is not angry in any way shape or form, he could not be any more cordial. We were just discussing where SOME PEOPLE may be coming from in analyzing his info, not me. I have seen several posts that are suspicious of this type of supply #s. Was trying not to clutter up the posts with all my points to him. Sorry for the confusion, am still working on getting him here directly. He is not being defensive in the actual context of the discussion.

Forget Drudge.....I'm following info on www.realclearpolitics.com and www.voter.com. It's not looking too good for Bush in the final stretch. My worst fears are looking like a reality.

Now it says
HOPES to win electoral college

Boy.....its awfully quiet on the forum right now. I guess the prospects of a Republican President are growing dimmer and its starting to settle in?

I'm out here, and I don't like what I'm seeing. I'll have more to say after the final results are in.

Some guy ranting re: the CNN network call on Florida, now reversed to too close too call.

It's 10:00pm eastern, this TV rhetoric is not broadcast west where polls are still open are they?

A possible ray of hope out there. CNN is pulling out Florida for the time being. NBC is trying to justify their Florida projection!

Strictly in terms of the POG, who do we want for the new President?

Is it good night - or good mo(u)rning America?

cb2-As far as I know David G has yet to access this site, maybe has tonight. For book try 202-529-2993 or www.solari.com/goldtreaty. Access Catherine F. at Cafe if nec. He will not be dismayed, but looks forward to this connection. I'm a little frustrated in not being able to get it going quicker. DG has been looking for you guys at another site as must have missed my directions. He does appreciate my copy and paste activity back and forth, but my day job keeps me from doing same to a higher standard {HA}..I need a little help comprehending what you and ORO {I believe} are saying about the irrelevance of a 2X or 3X supply of above ground gold. Can appreciate that this gold has found a home {temporary?} or has been mis-spent, thank you. Also can see the desperation of the derivatives {as well as their magnitude} in spite of whatever the supply of non-official metal is.
I am still thinking supply/demand #s where a 2X supply should be able to postpone the inevitable TWICE as long, no?
Ala Frank Veneroso's calculations and how long this projected dishoarding can continue. The dishoarding is holding gold down, and thus upholding fiat. Is that what you are saying? Most people think the emperor is splendidly attired and until they see his shame the show goes on? Fiat is confidence. Is that the major connection or am I missing another link between gold and fiat???????
If Bangladesh gold, for example, buys time, why does not Vatican or Marcos' gold do the same? Most assets do have their price. cb2- no reason not to keep discussing this issue to a degree as we all agree there us some "black gold" out there, but wonder about it's significance, at least many of us do.
We should all be on same page soon!

Regards to all. auspec

Thanks for the humor...I need it around now.

Now says
Bush on the verge

Who do we WANT?
Ron Paul!
Who will we get?
Not even a close second.

If Bush wins, Gore will probably claim the credit by saying that he took the initiative to produce the Bush win.

I wrote in Bill Murphy, that should do the trick. In all seriousness, there will be better connections {GATA & similar} with a W win, as he will be more likely to sort through the current stench. I can't hold my breath that long but can't hold my nose much longer either. To me algor is status quo, and this extends to our mkt also. A degree of hope with the other guy, even though the system in place is much bigger than either one of them, IMO. We are few of the White Knights around, but I do believe W to be a man of integrity. Whether he can ever figure out all the behind the scene crap is another issue, that takes brain power as well as EYES to see.
Got EYES???

Wow......I've been visiting so many political web sites that my PC froze up and I had to reboot. Listening to 710AM here in Colorado a few minutes ago......they announced Bush was now the projected winner for Florida. I wouldn't be too excited about this on a local level with the exception that the same station announced Florida being pulled from Gore way before the national networks did.

I'm getting hopeful that this will be a GOOD NIGHT. I sort of wish I was on the Mall in Austin right now. I bet its somewhat exciting. However, its way to early yet......can't count them chickens until they're hatched.

YIKES! CNN just announced California going to Gore. Jeez....the polls aren't even closed yet. You would think someone would have learned with the Florida situation.

Hang on....the ride isn't over yet.

Bummer and a good reason not to live in New York. Looks like Bill's spouse is a New York Senator.

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/epaper/editions/monday/news_a360d5a7f202d1130015.html Atlanta, Ga.
"the actual number of ballots cast by the dead is fairly small --- 5,412 in the past 20 years. But the ranks of potential dead voters have grown dramatically in recent years. Currently, there are more than 15,000 dead people on active voting rolls statewide, increasing the potential for voting errors and fraud."