This is just fantastic that I have been able to gather such valuable information for myself, as I am an ohterwise lost individual. But I have been directed to a great spot for relevant an insightful info, and for that I must give up thanks, even if gold tanks, I know of the truth that is being strived for here. How can truth be wrong?? Keep uncovering truth, and may I thank all who are doing so thanks. Thank you for all the years, of serious devotion to more then just research of how to benifit for yourselfs, but to all the REAL thought that has gone into uncovering truth. Eventually lets kill the lies in whatever the truth is being hidden in. View Yesterday's Discussion.

I am John Galt because I have the ability to drain the collective soul which is static energy. I live in Atlanta which is Atlantis or Galt's Gulch or Midas Mulligan's valley. It's time for all minds on strike to move to Atlanta/Galt's Gulch and to start trading with each other using James Turk's gold currency. I used the Ga Tech Georgia game to show those who think who I am. Up with the White and Gold, congratulations to Tech, I helped them win by draining the collectivists enough to give the individualists an advantage and thus Tech won. But the collectivists are a drain on the brain and regain an advantage (when the moon is in its dark stage they can drain the brain, when moon is light they cant) so the battle never ends until enough minds quit and the collectivists are left sucking wind instead of blood.

Looked in on a couple of daytrader forums yesterday. The most talked about subject.......prozac

CRB showing NG at 6.80; wow!

NEW YORK -- Natural gas soared to another all-time high amid forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, which comes in the wake of supply concerns. Oil prices faded from earlier highs on easing fears that Iraq will suspend its oil exports after United Nations diplomats said they will allow the loading of Iraqi crude without approved December pricing. Shortly after 1:15 p.m. at the New York Mercantile Exchange, January natural gas was up 47.4 cents, or 7.7%, at $6.655 per million British thermal units. It hit a high of $6.73 earlier, above the previous all-time high of $6.62 set Nov. 22. Temperatures in the Northeast are forecast to hold below normal over the next six to 10 days, while temperatures in the Midwest are seen below normal during the same period, according to the Weather Service Corp. in Washington. The latest cold snap follows bullish news from the American Gas Association Wednesday, which reported a drawdown of 146 billion cubic feet. The inventory data raise concerns about supply as the nation heads into what is expected to be a cold winter. Also at the Nymex, January crude oil slipped six cents to $34.57 a barrel. February crude rose six cents to $33.55 a barrel. December gasoline fell 1.03 cents to 89.65 cents a gallon amid profit-taking ahead of its expiration at the close of floor trading Thursday. However, December heating oil jumped 1.72 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.049 a gallon, buoyed by the cold-weather prediction. December heating oil will also expire at the close. Oil futures retreated after the U.N. moved to diffuse a potentially inflammatory situation by saying it won't stop tankers loaded with Iraqi crude from leaving port, diplomats said. 'We went into negative territory on that news' before rebounding slightly, said Laura Anello, broker/analyst at FCStone. 'It does look like we'll be ready to sell the heck out of this if (the situation) is resolved. But the story's not done yet.' A major stumbling block remains: Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization has told its customers that it will suspend exports early Friday unless buyers agree to pay a 50-cent-per-barrel surcharge into an Iraqi controlled account, an industry source said. 'We could add another $2 to $3 on this news if the threat is real,' Ms. Anello said...'

Black Blade: Hydro-Carbon Man is about to feel the pain of his addiction! With the higher energy costs, and rising inflation, the Gold Bear will break loose and the fun and games at the Bullion Houses will be over as they will not be able to restrain gold anymore. They will have more than enough to deal with as the markets crater and Hydro-Carbon man is in a panic. This is just the first quarter and it isn't even over yet!

New York--Nov. 30--Natural gas futures surged 6.6%, scoring a new record high on a private forecast that called for cooler weather in the Midwest and on lingering bullish sentiment about the latest storage data. Crude oil went the other way, dropping 2.3% after a three-week low as traders locked in profits before the Iraqi-threatened deadline to cut off supplies and eyed a report that Nigeria's oil workers have called off plans to expand their strike Friday.

Black Blade: Worst case, thousands could die as per Matt Simmons, Simmons Intl., as it becomes a choice of "Heat or Eat" for many seniors. Hydro-Carbon Man's fix just got more expensive!

Thanks for the response. I had read some time ago that much of the registered gold at Comex was owned by GS. I guess maybe this was the source to cover the contracts. At some point, though, maybe someone will require delivery and the gold won't be there. Then, do they lean on another CB to supply the necessary?

Yesterday I opined to some friends that the coming currency problems in SEAsia, SKorea, Taiwan, etc., are like movie sequels.

The best movies were trilogies. Indiana Jones, Star Wars, TClancey's Jack Ryan (all HFord) and Rambo come to mind.

The consistent thing about them is with each movie, the second one was always worse than the first one and sometimes the third one was even worse than the second.

Just my way of explaining to my uninformed family and friends.

I don't want to hear another word about the Euro Union taking in countries like Greece. The US colonization of LatAm continues with El Salvador added to Pananma and Ecuador. What a team.

Reminds of playing baseball as a kid. As we chose up sides we would get down to the scrubs and little guys. What a team the US is putting together.

Friday December 1, 8:43 am Eastern Time
El Salvador Adopts U.S. Dollar
SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador (AP) -- El Salvador on Thursday became the third Latin American country to adopt the U.S. dollar as an official currency.

Amid protests, 49 of 84 legislators approved the measure proposed by President Francisco Flores last week. The currency will go into effect next year.

``This law strengthens our monetary system, the productive sector, and will allow people to refinance their debts,'' said Congressman Gerardo Suvillaga of the ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance, or ARENA.

The move met fierce opposition from legislators from a party of former leftist rebels of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, or FMLN, who argued that the people should have the right to vote on it.

Flores had suggested using the U.S. dollar alongside the Salvadoran colon as a way to attract foreign investment and trigger economic growth.

U.S. and International Monetary Fund officials praised the move, saying that it would help El Salvador compete globally.

The move is considered a last-ditch measure for countries unable to control their economies. Ecuador adopted the dollar in September to stem 100-percent annual inflation, and Panama has long used the greenback.

Argentina has flirted with dollarization, but instead instituted a rigid currency board pegging its peso to the dollar.

Under the plan, banks would keep deposits in dollars while private citizens could use either the dollar or the colon in daily transactions, starting Jan. 1. The exchange rate would be fixed at the current level of 8.75 colons to the dollar.

watch dxh march index. 115 then false breakout up , hammer it,

USD soars on El Salvador inclusion into USD "sphere"!

Just kidding.

How are you on corn and soybeans these days? I would also like you opinon on heating oil.

Thanks.

They will work REAL hard to paper this over!Just in case this was missed in significance!!!!

********snip**************
Le Metropole Members,

Midas du Metropole has served commentary at The James
Joyce table entitled, "Markets Collapse; Gold Cartel
staring at Murphy's Law."

"Something VERY strange is going on in silver. Very
strange. The veteran silver pros on the floor can't
figure it out."

"1. ED& F Mann keeps selling and selling - more than
15,000 contracts - a huge position.
2. Goldman Sachs is now long 15,000 March $5 silver
calls.
3. The silver delivery notices today were exceptionally
heavy at 7,000 deliveries with Goldman Sachs issuing
6,547 of them. Our sources say 100% of the accounts
that stayed long Dec silver going into first notice
day were hit with deliveries. That is unusual."
*********splat*********

This may be most of the last of the unregistered silver at COMEX. So the rats now turn on each other with knives brandished. Expect them to wallpaper POS and POG to death today...A TOCOM event has just moved up its date.

Regards,

G.

not following heating oil, grain have support here but sideways to down unless dollar breaks lower. march beans have t l @ 520 .
dollar headed for 113. no advice

Clink, Clink...or is that a Kvlink?

supreme court will allow Gore in Bush out and then the fun starts.

spread between midam xkj and comex gcj

http://www.edfman.com/mangroup/mangroup.htmIn case you were searching for info on that AG seller...

Know why no elderly floridians have never been killed by road rage?????
You ever tried to gun down someone where their head isn't higher than the steering wheel.

send in superman.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1049000/1049470.stmIrag halts oil exports.

Let the good times roil...

Holtzman here,

--------------
Tony Blair for President
--------------

We spend a lot of time here eagerly analysing the major players (ECB, BoE, Greenspan, etc.), but spend comparatively little time analysing our domestic grass roots players. We eagerly try to discern the gold-buying motivations of the average Indian or Chinese citizen, but we seldom feel comfortable turning that same microscope on the Western man-in-the-street, especially when that same man-in-the-street pops by for a quick diatribe.

Sometimes the phrase "off topic" is applied to subjects of discussion which, nevertheless, provide very good insight into our own peoples' gold-buying motivations. Here in recent months we've witnessed rhetoric for or against various U.S. political parties, exhortations against gun control, attempts to align the book of Revelation (or Kondratieff or Nostradamus) with the present day, and dire warnings against the (pick one) Islamic Conspiracy, Jewish Conspiracy, New World Order Conspiracy, Anti-GATA Conspiracy, et cetera ad nauseum.

At all stages, these postings have been followed by lamentations about this forum's tendency to drift away from its central topic. But do realise, dear hearts, that the appearance here of such off-centre commentary gives the rest of us a chance to see what motivates a rather startling number of potential gold purchasers.

Should such off-topic posting be squelched? Well, to the extent that such postings overwhelm the intended pursuit of this forum, yes of course. But until they reach that extent, while they are merely embarrassing and annoying but not quite intolerable, I think that Michael is wise in letting it go on for a bit. Why? Because the presence of such postings provides the rest of us with far more than their authors intended. Such postings allow us to see into their hearts and find out what makes them tick.

Such postings also inspire us to rationally discuss such world views in detail, discerning the point in their reasonings where the logical gives way to the not so logical. Being able to see the location of that point gives us an advantage when making investment decisions.

For example, take Kondratieff et al. Of a certainty, there are cycles all around us, ranging in frequency from several hours to several centuries. But have you ever noticed that nearly every Kondratieff devotee attempts to place the present day within a hair's breadth of the super-cycle brink, then looks backward through time in search of previous brinks which queue up in a nicely regular cycle? I cannot think of a single case where such a forecaster concluded that the happy part of the cycle was coming up next. As a result, whilst I readily accept that cycles exert a profound influence over our lives, I find myself hard put to accept the predictions of most cyclists. It seems to me that most are merely attempting to find justification for their doom & gloom predispositions rather than objectively trying to find out where we really are.

As a second example, take the vast number of party-affiliated Americans who are currently mortified about what "the other party" is up to. I think I speak for most of us outside the United States when I say that, at this point, we really couldn't care less whether Gore or Bush is your next president. We're far more concerned that the transition occur at all, that it occur soon and peacefully, and that steps be taken to prevent a repeat performance come 2004. How many hundreds of times in movies have you seen two people struggling for control of a speeding automobile? Such a scene can often be amusing, provided that the scene is being viewed from the safety of a theatre seat. When one is viewing such a scene whilst speeding along in the lane beside that same car, however, the event quickly loses its entertainment value.

This is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the first century BC, when the Roman Republic was beginning to experience breakdowns in its elections of chief executives. There were several tremors not unlike your Election 2000 which preceded Rome's descent into undisguised dictatorship. Although the typical Roman citizen well away from the epicentre most likely fared about the same before, during and after the transition, citizens of neighbouring nations such as Egypt most assuredly did not. Although our tabloid press might have you thinking otherwise, be assured we are not amused.

--------------
Fear is the mind killer
--------------

As a more individual example of off-topic world views, let's take the gun control issue. There's no question that the safety of one's stash of gold is materially improved by 1) not publicising that one has such a stash, and 2) having the wherewithal on hand to defend one's stash should an invader present himself. That's perfectly logical, and I for one will never speak against a man's right to anonymously acquire the means necessary to protect his family and property. I've always admired the cantina scene in the original Star Wars movie... Ben Kenobi presents the appearance of an old man who couldn't harm a fly, right up until the split second when he's given no choice but to reveal that he's the most dangerous person who ever walked into that room. If we all had neighbours like Ben, we'd sleep soundly every night.

But when a man continually rails on about his god-given right to own an arsenal, his neighbours begin to wonder whether he's off his nut. Such men have on occasion been known to acquire hundreds of weapons then stash them loaded in every nook and cranny of their abodes, or even go so far as to hide in the forest and build bombs. Again, they're the one in ten thousand who give rational gun owners a bad name. And by no means am I singling out either guns or Americans... as Aragorn III can confirm, I reported some months ago on a maniac over here who charged into a sanctuary with a broadsword and wounded several parishioners before he was finally subdued.

And yet, regardless of the manner in which such lost souls express their insanity, what's truly startling is that the inspirations behind their actions are merely more intense, but not wholly unlike, the inspirations of more rational souls who wonder if there's danger around the next bend.

What in the world drives people beyond the bounds of rationality and into such misdirected and even occasionally destructive world views? Greed and fear... but mostly fear.

Fear has always been the stronger of the two brothers. Oh, greed shows up when a man is faced with armloads of gold, there for the taking. But fear creeps in upon a man in the dark hours of the night, and slowly eats away at him until he no longer trusts what his own eyes show him. Fear will, if allowed free rein, drive a man into darkness and inspire him to drag others in with him.

When you see how fear affects your fellow man, you have an advantage against that fear, because you've seen it from the outside first. Thus knowledgeable, you stand a better chance of successfully negotiating your life.

Of course, while allowing such postings to appear, we must be quite outspoken in our responses to them. I think we've all come to understand that the vast majority of humans are quite willing to faithfully believe anything they find in print. Neurotic panic attacks committed to web text are just as likely to be believed as are carefully double-checked research papers. Those comparatively few of us who post at this forum have an obligation to the many who read us but do not post. By clearly and thoroughly challenging suppositions until their truth or falsehood is made plain, we provide a service which hopefully improves the lives of those who partake of it.

Even though the actual subject of a post may well be off-topic, what it tells us of our neighbours' mindsets is often horribly relevant to gold. Such posts speak to the root source of man's 6000+ year allegiance to gold: gold is one of the very few ways one man alone can sneak his wealth past villains he expects will try to take it from him.

It requires no elaborate conspiracy theories to explain why gold has spent the past two decades declining in price against the U.S. dollar: these past two decades have witnessed the end of Communism, the beginnings of European Hegemony, and the most prolific economic boom the U.S. has ever experienced. What possible use did Joe Average American have for gold in such a utopian crescendo?

And for precisely the same reasons, it will require no elaborate theories to explain why gold will spend the next decade or more trending inexorably higher against the U.S. dollar: what pro-dollar news could possibly top what's already come to pass? A plummet into the pit is by no means the likeliest destiny for the dollar, but it's time it took a breather. It's time for some other part of the economic world to take the lead. Whether that other part is the euro, or gold, or the pound, or even the yen, is anyone's guess at this point. It's perfectly possible it may be more than one of them. And it may be years yet before the almighty U.S. dollar finally takes its break. But it could happen tomorrow. That's why I try to own a little bit of a lot of things, to minimise my exposure to the risk of any one investment taking a dive.

Finally, although I hesitate to start it up again, there is one more major segment of off-topic topics which I just can't leave uncontested. Randy, Michael, I shall of course understand if this next bit fails to find its way from my email to the forum. Sometimes it's best not to poke at the hornet's nest.

--------------
Faith does not require clear thinking
--------------

I remain to this day absolutely astounded by the number of people (some of them briefly at this forum in recent months) who preach hatred of Jews and yet in the same sentence speak highly of Christ. I hate to burst your bubble, my dears, but Jesus was a Jew, and it's rather clear from the historical record that he thought of himself as a good rabbi who was trying to return some common sense to the people around him. He was even willing to share his world view with those not born Hebrew. Christ was not even remotely at odds with "the Jews" (of whom he was one). Rather, he was at odds with "the Establishment" (both local religious, local secular, and Roman martial). It's perfectly logical to try following in the man's footsteps, but first it would help tremendously to take notice of where the man was actually walking. Ah, but evidently that would be asking too much in this age of dumbing down.

And what does this off-topic topic tell us about gold? Plenty.

It tells us that a frighteningly large number of people have a world view in which historical fact is irrelevant. Millions of people blindly accept as fact a single source of words (or worse, a single modern person's interpretation of those words), never feeling the need to seek corroborating evidence.

Many who seek lessons in the parable of the talents come to the conclusion that gold ownership is religiously unhealthy, and will refuse to contemplate any argument to the contrary. What's especially fascinating is that many of these same people regard it as a religious imperative to hoard a year's worth of far more perishable foodstuffs.

And just to show that there's balance in the world of questionable conclusions, at least as many equally faithful folk will come away from their Bibles with precisely the reverse interpretation: that it is God's command that they should acquire and possess gold, again regardless of any argument to the contrary.

The first group will never touch gold. The second group will never let go of it. And both groups would be averse to gold returning to its historical role as money in pocket. Nothing rational you say for or against gold ownership will have the slightest impact on either group because their minds are so firmly made up that they do not hear you.

This self-blinkered mindset is particularly startling given that most of the statements attributed to the man they worship are admonitions that people ought to think more clearly. For example, many American religious leaders tirelessly rail against the United States' founding principle of the separation of church from state, as if this notion were somehow inspired by Satan (or worse yet, by the godless). Again, I hate to burst your bubble, my dears, but that founding decision was a direct embrace of Jesus' declaration that one ought to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's, and unto God that which is God's. Or more bluntly put, the tabernacle and the town hall ought each to stay out of the other's business.

Contrast this with England, where most of our internal bloodbaths over the millennia have been the direct result of our having a state religion. Worshipping in any fashion other than that decreed by the monarch then in power was not an act of faith but rather one of treason, and it often led to a horrible death at the hands of government officials. Indeed, the very beginnings of English America are a direct result of faithful (but not approvedly faithful) people fleeing from a state religion. Modern Americans of all faiths (and of no faith) ought to consider themselves lucky and stop poking at one of the truly great safeguards their predecessors provided for them.

I suppose I should disclose here that I am neither practising C of E, nor other Christian, nor Jewish, nor Muslim. Nor, perhaps to the surprise of some, am I an atheist. The best word I've found to describe myself is apathist: I simply don't care whether there is a god or not. What I do care about is how current events in the real world will affect my capacity to lead a happy life, both now and in future. As a result, I applaud good intentions and good acts no matter the belief system which inspired the actor. Likewise, I disdain bad intentions and bad acts no matter the belief system. And as you can see, I also don't hesitate to candidly state my impressions of the matter.

Are my impressions the correct ones? I cannot say for certain that they are. But I can say that my Doubting Thomas world view has served me quite well to date. I try to stand back and see the world for what it is: an exciting and sometimes dangerous place, but not one which is specifically out to get me.

--------------
So where's the conspiracy?
--------------

A lot of people in this world suffer from an awkward world view which says that the population is made up of mostly good sheep and the occasional troublemaking wolf. As an easy extension of this mistaken world view, they then conclude that, wolves being inherently different from sheep, they must therefore be evil. Worse, as if individual wolves weren't dangerous enough, they're supposedly just cunning enough to unite in some planetwide conspiracy to get the sheep. Overly nervous sheep then look for simple identifying factors which will let them look at all the sheep around them and single out the ones whom they imagine are wolves in disguise. The result is bigotry, yet another wrongheaded but all too common conclusion.

The simple truth of the matter is that we are all wolves and we are all sheep. Every last one of us: man, woman and child.

This is why I find Machiavelli's point of view so refreshing, because he saw this dichotomy of human nature and laid out clearly how to make the best of it.

--------------
We are all wolves in sheep's clothing
--------------

In order to successfully make one's way through this world of ours, one must embrace this dichotomy, and even rejoice in it. For example, actors are clearly distinct from the roles they play, although you'd be amazed how many audience members (even well educated ones) find it difficult to remember that. Neither Mel Gibson nor James Doohan are Scottish, but they're proud of having played Scotsmen. For that matter, Bill Shatner isn't American but he proudly played a ship's captain from Iowa who put hand to heart at the sight of a tattered Stars & Stripes.

This same dichotomy is equally visible among politicians. During the early Thatcher years, a group of crazed theatrical types concocted a play entitled "Anyone for Dennis?" (in reference to Margaret's husband, who was a bit of an embarrassment). I remember in particular a scene in which Dennis, downstairs, was answering the telephone. "No, I'm sorry, she can't speak with you at the moment. She's upstairs, practising her scowl in the mirror. I do hope she doesn't turn herself to stone."

The notion I'm trying to get across here is that every one of us has an outside and an inside. It's so easy for adults to tell when a child is lying because the child hasn't yet realised that he has to lie with his mannerisms and intonation at least as much as he does with his choice of words. Adults can tell when a politician is lying, too, but that's for a slightly different reason (if his lips are moving, he's lying). Still, less than 4% of American voters this last time attempted to elect the one candidate who, by all accounts, was saying precisely the sort of common-sense things that everyone wanted to hear. And why wasn't he elected? Because no-one thought that honesty could win.

Who needs complicated conspiracies when the sheep think like that?


Yours,
I.V. Holtzman

Thank You Sir Black Blade # 42582....Cambior Still not out of the Woods!
From your post:
[Snip]
<>[Unsnip]

Comments:
If we divide $55 million by 233,685 ounces I get $235.36 per ounce.
Now if it currently costs somewhere between $260.00 and $280.00 after all expenses to produce an ounce of Gold, this loan generates an on going loss of <$25.00> to <$45.00> per ounce of Gold produced.....And costs should keep going up over the 5 year period(Inflation)!!!
It also creates 2336.85 one hundred ounce contracts for Gold delivery over the next 5 years.These could be dumped at COMEX at any time, such as today when when the POG seems to be headed slightly down. Credit Suisse makes a profit at any amount over $235.36 per ounce.
Anybody reading this get a better understanding of why the Gold mining industry is in "BIG" trouble?
Bottom Line....Debt + Debt + Debt = More Debt, or Debt to the 3rd power! Shareholders Beware...They might try to come after you to help pay off debt!!!....beesting.

Will the election chaos prove to be important? I've been watching politics with regards to the economy for a couple decades, but as I conclusively proved a few days ago, I'm often wrong. So, FWIW:

Only a little over 100 million Americans bothered to vote, proving that about 170 million Americans didn't bother to vote, and these 170 million non-voters include the 100 million or so who were registered but still didn't bother to vote. Most Americans view political goings-on, particularly in DC, with suspicion and as a show beyond their control.

Very few people I watched on TV were enthusiastic about either candidate, an observation supported by many posters at this site - - - and, surprisingly to me, many I talked to in my little mostly democratic town who also mirrored this un-enthusiastic attitude.

Given there are few demonstrations one way or another around the country, and apparently no violent ones, I would tend to conclude that the 170 million who didn't vote continue to be largely uninvolved, and ditto even those who voted.

Further this suggests to me that what emotions there are have to do with considerations of fairness and justice, not to do with enthusiasm for either bozo.

This has implications, of course -- and since there is a certain emotional (and logical) merit on both sides of the "justice" and "fairness" arguments, it is very reasonable for both sides to dig-in and polarize. Because of this, the "fairness/justice" issue simply WILL NOT be resolved, especially at the emotional level, to the satisfaction of either side.

How much of the resultant ill-feeling over justice and fairness will stick to the final winner? How long? To that extent, either man will be somewhat handicapped -- unless, like Clinton, they know how to largely ignore it, publically at least. But since the winner will be perceived as the "lesser of two evils," justice and fairness won't matter much - - - kind of like the Soviet Union vs. the IMAGE of USA. You know, the "What do you expect from 'The Evil Empire'?" kind of thing.

Conclusion: Unless large numbers of people hit the streets around the country, this whole circus will remain just that - - an entertaining and diverting circus, all smoke and no fire. It will largely only effect the pols and government worshippers who take even such minutae of government seriously. However if people DO hit the streets in large numbers around the country (unlikely I think), it will be very difficult to resolve.

Foreigners will or won't repatriate dollars depending on their perceptions. My guess is that it will be a minimal effect unless folks start hitting the streets, in which case it could be a major efffect.

Final note: If the dollar survives the next six months to a year without major drop in value, it'll probably last a good deal longer. The reason I suggest this is that, as many writers point out, fiat is a creature of confidence and it's hard to imagine a stronger confluence of dollar-confidence-shaking events than those converging on it now.

Regards,
Journeyman

Amen, brother!

And may the hornets get lost in the icy winds somewhere over Newfoundland (should they know which way to set out for Albion).

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlWe were able to secure a very small cache of these coins, and are therefore pleased to bring you this offer -- but the supply is limited, so act quickly to claim some of this kingly gold for your own--poignantly, from the same country that taught us the hard lesson of the tulipmania.

And while viewing the link above, don't overlook the "Coin of the Month"...some table-busting gold coins from Sweden. At over a quarter ounce each, be careful where you place them!

Money is fungible -- one dollar is equivalent to every other dollar. That is, money is the ultimate commodity. Thus a dollar traded in a so-called "oil for food" scheme frees up dollars otherwise used for food to, say, build super-guns, biological weapons, etc.

You CANNOT successfully earmark money input into particularly a hostile enterprise -- such an input simply frees-up other resources for other uses.

Same observation goes for food stamps, etc. Now the money people previously had to spend on food is freed up for booze -- or education and computers. (Not to mention "black-market" food stamp trading.)

These schemes are one more example of political b.s. and spinning.

Regards,
Journeyman

bye

MARTIAL LAW

It has been my preference to monthly provide a review of the gold-related elements of each U.S. international trade report released from the Department of Commerce. I found it impossible to be everywhere at once two weeks ago when the report for September was released, but happily, I am able to look into the numbers for this overview today.

September exports of goods and services totaled $92.4 billion, while imports reached $126.6 billion, resulting in the monthly trade deficit leaping ahead to $34.3 billion. This is an incredible $4.5 billion more than the revised deficit figure of $29.8 billion reported for August.

Compared with the August figures, September exports were $0.6 billion less while imports were $3.8 billion more.

** Getting to the gold **

Seasonally adjusted figures in the report for September reveal that while the quantity of gold moving into foreign ownership (exports) in August was $324 million, September gold exports climbed to $510 million. To offer the meaningful element of this balance, I must also tell you that these export numbers for August and September exceeded our gold imports by $137 million and $282 million, respectively (for a net outflow of approx 32 tonnes in September alone (U.S. mining produces only 350 tonnes new gold annually)).

Year-to-date gold exports through September have now climbed to $4.39 billion, whereas ytd imports have been only $2.06 billion, for a net outflow this year of $2.33 billion in gold (approx 260 tonnes).

((This contrasts markedly with last year's year-to-date exports (through September) totaling $3.04 billion, that when compared to the offsetting imports yielded a net gold outflow of "only" $789 million (approx 90 tonnes) for the first three quarters of 1999.))

In a brief flight of fancy, here is a physical consideration of the September 2000 trade deficit. Instead of balancing the import/export deficit by delivering pallets of printed dollars totaling $34.3 billion, if we were requested to physically balance the September trade figures with hard goods, and gold was chosen as the universally accepted medium of settlement, at today's prices it would require an additional 3,950 tonnes of gold just to settle the books against September's current trade imbalance. Of course, a much higher relative value for gold would more aptly manage such a task. I will leave it to you to mull over the possibilities and eventualities regarding this current untenable balance of trade situation.

he'll cut the flood gates of fiat, keep hammering the dollar now, watch commodites move higher. dec swiss next resistance 5850

Following yesterday's First Notice Day for delivery on the December gold futures in which 4,405 contracts where held up for delivery, this morining a bit of "pass the buck" set in with the issue of another 966 delivery notices, coming mostly from those parties that got tapped with delivery obligations yesterday. A bit of musical chairs, in which the easiest attempt to settle such an obligation for those with no gold to deliver is to pick up the necessary long positions in December gold contracts and then issue subsequent notice of delivery intentions (requests, actually) the following day.

With these 966 contracts, it could be argued that we are seeing a representation of 3 tonnes chasing its own tail.

Yesterday's COMEX trade reduced the open interest in these December contracts by 5,500 down to 2,700 to start today's action. Meanwhile, the open interest in February was actually reduced by 900 contracts, bringing the total to 74,600 as it has now become the most active contract.

Something big is gonna happen over the week end:

This pattern is extreme and explosive.

Your recent posts, particularly 42612, are likely some of the most significant posts I have seen on this forum. The only ones that come close are some of the oil supply analysis posts.

May god bless us all

j'Bear

NewsMax.com



Lost Out There in the Chads
John L. Perry
Nov. 26, 2000


". . . we're lost out here in the stars, little stars, big stars, blowing through the night, and we're lost out here in the stars . . . ."
� Kurt Weill

* * *
While the greatest people on Earth were obsessed with chads � hanging, pregnant, virgin and dimpled � the rest of the world was not, and it's horrifying.

Most of the American press has been prepossessed with which presidential candidate is up today, down tomorrow, and how . . . golly, gee . . . this has never happened before.

The news media palpitations over punched and non-punched ballots have been enough to gag a maggot, and the nation is simply sick of it.

It should be, for the confetti of chads has so chummed the press feeding frenzy that the conventional establishment media have allowed scarcely any other significant reportage to filter through.

Just look at the worldwide events of importance that have gone missing amid the floor sweepings of chads littering the premises of the election boards:

� Iraq

Saddam Hussein is busy building his own Persian Gulf alliance, intended to choke off America's oil supply.

He has junked sanctions imposed on him, and is being abetted in the process by what should be America's allies in that region and in Europe.

Meanwhile, he is doggedly replenishing his arsenal of biological and nuclear weapons, all aimed at the American people and their children.

� Russia

In utter economic ruin, strapped for cash, Valdimir Putin's Russia is selling arms to any nation angry enough to join a military cabal against the United States.

Nothing is so dangerous as a vast nation, pushed to economic desperation, with a military losing patience and missile silos just waiting to be utilized.

� Communist China

China is investing everything it has in an all-out strategy to wage and win a war against the United States.

Whatever it needs to achieve a modern war machine it steals or buys from a complicit Clinton-Gore administration or takes delivery from a Moscow catalog house.

It is testing now to see if America will let it force Taiwan to return to prison.

� Our Military

It has been neglected by the Clinton-Gore administration to the point it cannot respond adequately to a two-front war.

No longer is the United States militarily invulnerable. It is now an enticing invitation for attack.

And there are determined enemies out there just nuts enough to give it a try.

� Communist North Korea

Here's another case of economic desperation coupled with military might.

Few inside the borders of the United States seem to understand that North Korea has one of the world's largest locked and loaded standing armies.

� Global Terrorism

The USS Cole, the U.S. embassies in Africa and the World Trade Center are peanuts and just for openers.

That crazy who's crouched in a cave out there in the Afghan mountains has no end of money or willing suicide terrorists at his disposal. And he absolutely loves what he's doing.

� Arabs-Israelis

They've been at it since Biblical days, so long engaged in mutual self-destruction they've forgotten who first struck whom.

The peace process is a cruel hoax. It all may be beyond the ability of anyone to stave off a hideous war that will reach out far beyond the tiny confines of the Middle East.

� India-Pakistan

These neighbors have nuclear weapons aimed directly at one another, and it's another case of centuries of ethnic hatred and religious bigotry that shows no signs of abatement.

If this one blows up, there's no way the United States can hide behind "Seinfeld" and "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?"

� The Balkans

This Humpty Dumpty has not been sorted out and put together again.

Despite the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's air assault, invasion and occupation of Yugoslavia, the locals are even further apart than before. Centuries of insoluble ethnic hatreds throughout the region are waiting to pick up right where they left off.

It's only a matter of time, and not much of that.

� NATO-European Union

The only legitimate reason for NATO was to implant a bulwark around Western Europe against invasion by the old Soviet Union. That catalyst has disappeared, and with it NATO unity and purpose.

NATO's economic and political counterpart, the European Union, is on the verge of disintegration, leaving the United States with no defensible base on the Continent.

� The Irish

Does anyone seriously believe they will stop what they've been doing so long as any of them can remember? Who will bell this cat?

� Mexico

It surges to spill over into the United States, and once that human tidal wave of poverty begins in earnest, there'll be no stopping the Mexicanization of the Southwest and California.

The financial cost alone will emaciate American taxpayers.

� Panama Canal

This is now a Communist China interest zone. It's but a baby step away from becoming a hostile military base in America's front yard.

Sleep well, President James Monroe.

� Drug Cartels

There is too much money at stake here to put these devils on a leash. They will soon have countries of their own.

The only question is whether the United States has the will not to be among the number.

� Latin America

That entire continent teeters between abject poverty and potential consumerism.

If Communist China chooses, it can become the major trading partner of what was once an American hemisphere.

� Our Value-less Economy

The American economy as it now stands is an illusion. Enough of its stocks being traded domestically and around the world are valueless beyond their own paper.

There is no getting around the old economic necessity for real value having to reflect actual created wealth.

� America's Under-Culture

With every passing day, the multitudes of Americans who are uneducated, unemployable and addicted to narcotics and/or government entitlement programs swell ever larger.

No nation can survive forever a mass that feeds upon its body as a whole. America's continued existence is threatened by a human malignancy of monumental sadness.

� Non-Education

Most Americans apparently believe their children are actually getting an education when they pack them off to public school.

The rest of the industrialized world knows better, and is waiting for the education hour glass to run out in America.

� AIDS

It is killing the continent of Africa, gaining ground in Europe and metastasizing in America.

It's not the flu. So far, no one gets over it.

� A Nation in Denial

Look about you. How many Americans do you know are aware of those horrors haunting America?

Or if they are aware, are they willing to face them squarely.

Individuals go into terminal denial; so can nations.

From Saddam Hussein to AIDS, America's worst enemies worldwide have not been idle during its distraction with chads.

Their strongest ally is an America wasting time, failing to come to grips with realities that grant no grace room.

The weeks eaten up with post-election myopia are extremely serious.

Despite what Vice President Al Gore's handlers say about how he was sitting on ready for eight years to assume the presidency if called upon, despite whatever it is George W. Bush was doing, the truth is the next president has lost a crucial hunk of the precious two months allotted to put a transition administration in place.

He will limp into the Oval Office horrifically ill-prepared to deal with instant crises or creeping catastrophes.

He will be � indeed, is now � a sitting duck for any number of sinister surprise test-probes, even a latter-day Pearl Harbor.

And while the magnificent foresight of the Founding Fathers has provided this most-fortunate of all nations with a constitutional compass out of a labyrinth of electoral contradictions, it offers no king's-X time out from getting real about what confronts a superpower with more enemies than friends.

It is a test America could eventually fail, may well be failing.

Talk about being lost out here in the stars. The hostile onslaughts awaiting America are already lost out there in the chads.

They've not gone away. They've only grown meaner.


John L. Perry, a prize-winning newspaper editor and writer who served on White House staffs of two presidents, is senior editor and a regular columnist for NewsMax.com.

by John L. Perry

CONTRABAND

Thank you "SDRer" for sharingDate: Fri Dec 01 2000 13:33
SDRer (Forthecraic-Unhappily, this is not as straight line as we would have it.) ID#246299:
Copyright � 2000 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
[As gold monetists would have it.] There is a great deal to be untangled in the international monetary reformation. BIS says 2004 will mark what they call the "steady state".

When I first went down to the root cellar [akin to "going to the mattresses"] I was not too far along in my tunneling before it became apparent that the "sequestered yuan" was a very [VERY] important component in the aligning to the metals standard.

It is impossible to overstate role the yuan is now playing in its sequestered state; so, convertibility is not around the next corner.
One is tempted to speculate that they would regard it as "prudent" to have the sequestered yuan in place for at least six months after
the Euro hits the streets?

It will be something like this: fiat for domestic use, gold for international unit of account, six months to a year gold reserves cover GDP, the functions of money split between fiat and gold.

The demand for gold will be on the rise, as the New Rules become public-that is, gold held as a store of wealth [savings] not taxed and invulnerable to political assaults [in civilized countries].

The Hoople.
Your wry thoughts in one of your posts yesterday made me laugh out loud. Loved it.

Holtzman
A superb job in dealing with complex subjects. As POGO once said "the enemy is us", and we are all blinkered (some more so than others) by our own beliefs. Thank you for taking the time to compose and share.

Hill Billy Mitchell 42551
In your post you say that "if trade is to continue", you assume trade is so desireable that it will continue in its present form. If one assumes that trade continues in its present form, then it may well be that some form of medium of exchange will be required. However I am cynical enough that I believe that reason will NOT prevail, particularly in the short term. Trade may not prevail in its present form, since such ideas are not "engraved in stone".

Hi Journeyman. 42606 42547
On balance I agree with at LEAST 95% of what you post. However, my personality is such that I enjoy debating "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin". When you say that the economic plunge is better from 10,000 feet than the stratosphere, I must respond that as a sometime pilot, I can assure you that a plunge from either altitude without a parachute is equally fatal. Admittedly the stratospheric plunge may well be a bit more messy. (strangely enough there is a terminal velocity, due to air friction, that would limit the speed of either plunge to about the same impact speed.)

Moreover I suspect that Greenspan is trying to do essentially that, lower the altitude. Good marks for intention, but the patient is very likely to die. But then, I have been "premature" in my "demise" forcasts since Feb 1987, so why would anyone pay attention to what I say.

There was a long post that appeared in my mind, combining elements of your, and Hill Billy Mitchell's posts, that I felt strongly about. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I have been swamped with work recently, and I had neither the time nor energy to write it up.

Never the less, while I fear that Wolavkas dire mutterings may be accurate, I hope he is wrong, because I have a wad of fiat likely incoming, that I have a job for.

But like your 42606, while I may have some small philosophical differences, they are not serious enough to detract from the main thrust. Keep it up.

Best regards
j'Bear

http://www.hindubusinessline.com/stories/060233jc.htmHEADLINE: US economic slow down hits dollar

The article begins:
"DATA released during the week showed that the 10-year US economic expansion is slowing down. ...led to a weakening of the US dollar. Added to this was the crash in the technology-laden Nasdaq index which fell by 23 per cent in November."

Continuing:
"The euro, deriving benefit from the dollar's slide, surged by 4.8 per cent against the greenback this week not because the euro-zone economics were doing better but because the dream expansion of the US economy seems to be slowing down. The euro also scored over the Japanese currency as political wrangles and a stream of bankruptcies in Japan depressed it against major currencies."

The article covers many currency bases, including an assertion that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has advised ECB president Wim Duisenberg to take stronger steps to support the euro. Further, it indicates that Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet indicated that a strong euro is in the interests of Europe, a view that was shared not only by other members of the ECB governing council, but also by Finance Ministers of the other countries in euroland.

What the article does not touch on, but equally important to consider, is that in the mid-term past, while other currencies have weakened dramatically against the dollar, the foreign holders of US dollar-denominated investments could happily endure flat or even slightly declining asset performance. They would, after all, still come out ahead throught the exchange rates when cashing out and repatriating their funds in local currency. But as the dollar slips, this tolerance for anemic asset performance simply will not prevail. If/when a clear trend of dollar weakness takes root in popular investor perception, we may likely be amazed at the amount of foreign held U.S. assets (stocks, bonds, etc) that will be suddenly hitting the streets...something that will likely aggravate the weakening dollar in a vicious circle.

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
It seems that the 966 "pass the buck" delivery notices were met with falling prices this morning, meaning that a significant seller appeared on the scene to quench any price rise due to the physical demand. I wonder who that was.

Also, I'm still wondering about who ED& F Mann is and why are they selling so many silver contracts. Their web page didn't give me much info (thanks Mr Gresham) but I didn't spend much time on it.

There is no knowing with certainty how varioius trades were settled, but a most natural sequence of events following the line of explantion I have laid out in previous post is this.

On this notion of passing the buck, please recall that the newly established long positions would have had to been put in place yesterday (after the parties had been tapped with gold delivery obligations) priot to the issuing of the 966 delivery notices today. And you will also recall that in this "pass the buck scramble", which would have occurred yesterday, we did in fact see the price get chased higher by three dollars.

You have hit the nail on the head where you said about today "a significant seller appeared on the scene to quench any price rise". While price discovery for gold occurs based on this COMEX trade, if must now be appreciated by everyone that the active contract is now the February contract, which can now be sold (as you indicate) with impunity prior to January 31. And the parade continues...until the wheels fall off as described in prior posts.

Though this COMEX business is just one small element of a bigger picture, we are all wise to understand the various and interrelated elements soas to confidently take advantage of this unsustainable infrastructure which delivers gold to us at these bargain prices. Buy into the gold, not the specific elements of the infrastructure which is poised to collapse.

Markets Collapse; Gold Cartel staring at Murphy's Law

Something VERY strange is going on in silver. Very strange. The veteran silver pros on the
floor can't figure it out.

1. ED& F Mann keeps selling and selling - more than 15,000 contracts - a huge position.
2. Goldman Sachs is now long 15,000 March $5 silver calls.
3. The silver delivery notices today were exceptionally heavy at 7,000 deliveries with
Goldman Sachs issuing 6,547 of them. Our sources say 100% of the accounts that stayed
long Dec silver going into first notice day were hit with deliveries. That is unusual.

As far as the gold deliveries go, Gold Cartel member Deutsche Bank delivered 3500
contracts out of a total 4405 contracts.

In other words, two of the three most visible "Hannibal Cannibals" delivered 75% to 90% of
the silver and gold contracts on the Comex.

Combine that with what else we know about the "concerted" price action, it anecdotally
confirms the obvious once again that they are acting in a collusive way to try and hold down
the prices of gold and silver.

It is always Chase, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs. No matter where we turn and
whatever comes my way to report to the Cafe, they show up in a larger than life way.

Let me elaborate a bit more on the psychology of the deliveries. What they are doing is
trying to convince market participants that there is plenty of gold and silver around and that
is the reason for the price weakness. It is an obnoxious, bravado play on their part.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs must be a bit nervous about this play in silver because the shorts
in silver are double the known available supply.

My guess is that Goldman Sachs and the US are up to old tricks. In October 1999, I received
information about the potential gold physical squeeze in August 1999. The Fed called a
brokerage firm (such as Refco) and told them not to worry about clients concerned about
receiving delivery - that the Fed would guarantee that all clients would get any desired gold.
At the same time, the Fed requested that this Refco type firm not bother Goldman Sachs
about their delivery intentions.

That was the first specific insight GATA received regarding US Government involvement in
the gold market. The best way to alleviate suspicion of gold price manipulation and the
orchestration of an artificially low gold price was to bury the price of silver. To make it not
look too much like a Goldman Sachs operation, it would be par for the course that an account
would be set up at a firm like Mann.

It is not necessary to get it into all the details, but this type of Gold Cartel scheme is
consistent with sophisticated Cabal tactics.

Who knows what could happen to the price in silver at any point in time. Hence, Goldman
Sachs took protection by buying the March silver calls.

That does not mean that Goldman Sachs is doing the silver play just for themselves, although
they could be. They could very easily be carrying out this continuing capping of the gold and
silver price in behalf of the US Government. What about the Treasury and Fed denials about
any manipulation of the prices of gold and silver (You mean like the Clinton and Nixon public
denials)?

It is all about "is type" semantics. Goldman Sachs, Chase and Deutsche Bank could very
well be carrying out the gold/silver scheme for themselves, the rest of the Cartel and the US
Government, "with the US secretly guaranteeing their positions, meaning guaranteeing the
bullion dealers against market losses. That way the government is not "actually" doing the
trading itself, but stands by the Gold Cartel's silver and gold operations, just like they stand
by their own Treasury Bonds.

Today, Goldman Sachs was seen aggressively buying March silver futures. Is the Gold
Cartel about to run for hills reverse course on silver? Hard to say, but one clue will be the
Comex Warehouse silver stocks. Icarus, Caf� super snoop, pointed out that after being
unchanged for weeks, they were reported after the close to be down 505,000 ounces to 95,
717,000 ounces.

Normally, the silver warehouse stocks would go up before first notice if heavy heavy
deliveries ensued. The fact that that they did not this time may mean the silver short Cabal
game is over - that they have run out of physical silver that they can tap to continue the ruse.
If the silver stocks continue to go down in the days to come, look out, for it probably does
mean that price of silver could fly - especially if Goldman Sachs keeps buying to cover their
shorts sent over to ED & F Mann. That would leave them long the March $5 calls. And of
course, GS - thieves that they are - will make a fortune with their silver calls, if silver
skyrockets.

I look for investors to recover a shipment of gold of US $230 millions.

... well balanced essay of main world topics in a nutshell - Mr. Holtzman- and since you put it so well and eloquently - I feel a little inadequate to comment. In particular, because I do agree with your premises.

And while I do have a differentiated "feeling" about the phenomenon (not you, though some) termed conspiracies, I would like to go back to recent history.

As we all are aware, this phenomenal (stock-) market performance started in 1982 - after 15 y's of drought, heightened by 2 oil shocks and run-away inflation - Oct. 1987 marked a first and almost disastrous crash of financial assets. As it happened Mr. Al Greenspan, only 2 months in offce, was called upon in order to ameliorate the
aftershocks of a later dubbed as a computer-crash, due to tying the mutual fund performance to indices (indexing, or was it insurance), of the then "brilliant" performers of the fund industry?

Well, AG did the right thing at the time and reliquified any and every investment bank and broker ( a distinction, now long lost, though since 1929 a prerequisite) in distress.

Furthermore, it was still in Reagan's regency, that a special financial presidential team (now dubbed PPT or TPTB) was founded, in order to avoid similar meltdowns,
under the pretext of systemic risk avoidance. The old and secretive (ESF) Exchange Stabilisation Fund may haave been mis-used, as major evidence points towards this direction.

Anyway, as I said, Mr. Holtzman, no conspiracy there, only, I fear, intervention, distortion and manipulation of "free" market fundamentals of (paper) supply vs (real) demand.

And The Powers There Be, may see - the woods - not a tree, nor the roots - of thee economee - kind regards- cb2

The following quotation has been published from this guy Randy at the tower THREE DAYS IN A ROW:

". Buy into the gold, not the specific elements of the infrastructure which is poised to collapse"

Why? How come? Why does he feel he needs to wear out his keyboard with such NONSENSE? Oh right...he gets his daily "bread" from the "home office"

He would have you believe that Comex players are on their way to the poor house or worse...be cheated or somehow loose their wealth...

Don't buy it folks...He is wrong, and has been for the last years...his story is the same old song with ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE to back up any FICTION he's posting about the Comex Futures Exchange!

I think others should send a message to STOP the fiction...it doesn't play very well here or anywhere for that matter.

The EVIDENCE is that the Comex exchange has again offered both commercial traders and speculator traders a regulated exchange to lay off risk (hedgers) to the risk takers (speculators). Some have made money, some have lost money...same as coin buyers... NO ONE has been cheated and the Exchange will AGAIN open on Monday...

Stop spreading fear or worse...Tell the TRUTH Randy or turn off your machine...your nonsense about " collapse " is not appreciated by people that know what they're talking about.

http://www.SelectSectors.com/goldindx.gifLooking Good!

http://www.lewrockwell.com/murphy/murphy19.html
Hey Journeyman - thought you and others might enjoy. From the article;

"Before proceeding, I ask the reader to indulge me in a brief digression.
People often chide me for calling myself an anarchist, rather than a
libertarian. The term anarchy conjures up images of atheist nuts who go
around throwing bombs. Wouldn't it be much more palatable to make appeals
for liberty, rather than for anarchy?

"Sure it would; but I'm not running for class president. (I tried that once. I had
the funniest posters an eighth-grader ever designed, and I posted them in the
bathroom, where everyone would be sure to see! The other kids peed on them.
I didn't win. Is that why I'm so bitter?)"

I have read your repost of GATA commentary and have come to the conclusion, based on an apparent difference in perception, that either that commentator or myself is standing on his head.

From your repost:
"As far as the gold deliveries go, Gold Cartel member Deutsche Bank delivered 3500 contracts out of a total 4405 contracts."

As I have been reporting on this over the last two days, I would alter this sentence in a small but meaningful way in keeping with what I have reported. It makes a big difference! Try this...

"Deutsche Bank delivered NOTICE OF REQUEST FOR PHYSICAL SETTLEMENT on 3500 contracts out of a total 4405 contracts SO REQUESTING....WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SUCH REQUESTS ARE BY GENERALLY BY PARTIES WANTING TO ***RECEIVE*** GOLD FOR SETTLEMENT."

I find it distinctly beyond reasonable credibility that Duetsche bank (or anybody of size and importance) would seek to close a short COMEX position with a request to make physical delivery. Again and to be sure, delivery intentions, where they occur as a tiny subset of all voluminous COMEX trade, are typically the longs asking for the gold, not the shorts trying to get rid of metal. It is my impression that this is characteristic of what Deutsche bank has done...asked for gold. Or to put another way, they "got them some", with due respect.

Rather changes the whole outlook, does it not? (Or am I the one caught viewing the world up-side-down? You decide...or else we can let time do it for us!)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/mcmaken5.html
From the article;

"Here in modern America, we face the same problem. The politics, values, and
religion of the Southern, Western, and rural people of America are not like
those in the coastal cities. Secessionists do not seek to overturn the
government in Washington, or to destroy the governments of Massachusetts,
New York, and California. What we wish to do, is to avoid the radicalization
that urban leftists wish to force on us. It is they who wish to revolutionize and
to destroy. It is they who want to put an end to our churches, our private
schools, our local governments, and our civic organizations. They wish to
sweep away traditional American culture and traditional American
institutions.

"For generations now, compromise has regularly amounted to a leftist victory.
This is not a battle that can be won. They have the advantage in numbers and
self-righteous rhetoric. Like the Colonists who fought to preserve their British
liberties, modern Americans should consider their "American liberties" and
examine how they have changed in the last generation. If any vestige of these
liberties are to be preserved in the long run, it must be saved now.

"We are approaching the time when as Jefferson wrote, "it becomes necessary
for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them
with another." To dismiss secession as radical and dangerous will only allow
the true radicalization of all America. For you patriots who value "America,"
remember that America stands for something other than the Army and the
Navy and lines on a map. If America does not protect liberty, then it has
ceased to be America. Secession is an effort to protect those liberties and
institutions that make us Americans. It is truly the moderate choice."

If I may...

At the Comex Exchange, The short seller issues delivery notices...He/she/they are DELIVERING physical gold to the long that stops delivery by remaining long into the delivery period...But, the short determines WHEN the long gets the gold...

Most likely, the short is a mine, bank, or other large holder that for any number of reasons wants "off" of 100 oz. per contract delivered.

Most likely, the long is an end user of the physical gold, a large speculator that wants the physical gold, OR a newbie spec with a broker that is asleep!

Hope this helps...Mr. Randy is incorrect on the previous post...The bank was delivering physical gold...

It's been shown repeatedly that 80% to 90% of small specs on the COMEX lose their shirts. My assertion is that most of the people who read this forum should heed Randy's advice over that of goldhunter.

The COMEX and thousands of commodities brokers depend on small specs losing their shirts on a regular basis.

http://www.crbindex.com/conspecs/nymex/contractsd.htm#Gold FuturesA few weeks ago I asked you if I could pledge my Gold for future delivery, and hold my Gold in my own safe deposit box. Your answer was yes to both questions.
Since that time I have located the above URL at Comex which states it a little differently.
I don't want to get involved in your discussion with Randy, on a subject that would never be resolved.(Merits of Physical Gold over Paper Gold as I am biased)
But let the forum consider this:
Randy is paid by the sales of physical Gold.
You, Sir Goldhunter, are paid through the sales of "paper" Gold.
Below is from the above URL concerning storage and delivery of Comex Gold.
Thanks for your posts, all of us team mates are getting better educated on the world of Gold as time progresses.....beesting.

[Snip]
< Gold delivered against the futures contract must bear a serial number and identifying stamp of a refiner approved and listed by the Exchange. Delivery must be made from a depository located in the Borough of Manhattan, New York City, licensed by the Exchange.>>[Unsnip]

I'm not advising you to do anything at all...unlike Randy @the tower...

I'm just not interested in false statements being endorsed by folks at this site...and neither should you...

If people REALLY don't know what REALLY goes on at the Comex Exchange, they should either ask, find out, or keep quiet. CERTAINLY They should NOT make something up...

See previous Comex discussions: Goldhunter, Zenaida, Randy @the Tower...

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=555&FS=Legitimacy
From the article;

"There may be an analogy here with the process of hyper-inflation.
Cutting back on the money supply after a hyper-inflation is under
way, will no more save a discredited currency than putting in a Unity
Government of non-controversial fellows in gray suits will save a
discredited regime. Once people have seen through the veil of
illusions, all bets are off. As Paul Cantor has written, inflation may
well be the leitmotiv of the 20th century.

"When things are going well for states, we find a happy alliance of
Court Intellectuals and political wirepullers. It is the role of these
intellectuals to explain that the state's rulers are noble, heroic, and
caring, and that their actions - however self-serving they may seem
to be - are actually aimed at the general happiness of everyone.
So-called Social Science plays a part here.

"As Rothbard put it: "The increasing use of scientific jargon has
permitted the State's intellectuals to weave obscurantist apologia for
state rule that would have only met with derision by the populace of
a simpler age. A robber who justified his theft by saving that he
really helped his victims, by his spending giving a boost to retail
trade, would find few converts; but when this theory is clothed in
Keynesian equations and impressive references to the �multiplier
effect,� it unfortunately carries more conviction. And so the assault on
common sense proceeds, each age performing the task in its own
ways." Further: "Thus, ideological support being vital to the State, it
must unceasingly try to impress the public with its �legitimacy,� to
distinguish its activities from those of mere brigands."

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
From the article;

"In an orderly and almost methodical fashion, the alarming
march progresses directly into financial crisis both
domestically and internationally. And quite distressingly
similar to the domino collapse in SE Asian 1997 and
Russia/LTCM in 1998, there appears little understanding
or appreciation for what is unfolding either in the
marketplace or within the regulatory community. Denial
reins. Yesterday evening on CNBC former Federal
Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, stating what we
assume is the consensus view within the Fed and economic
community, claimed "we are very far away from a
financial crisis in the United States." We hope he is
correct, but we do see it differently. Actually, our analysis
tells us that we are at the cusp of severe financial crisis
with little hope for it to be averted � the "wheels are in
motion." Quite simply, the financial and economic
excesses have been too great and the damage
monumental, and there is today simply no way around the
consequences. One of the more cogent comments we
have heard recently came from CNBC's Ron Insana who
stated that the present environment is similar to the 1998
crisis, with the U.S. this time at the "epicenter."

(#42627) Goldhunter says: "He would have you believe that Comex players are on their way to the poor house or worse...be cheated or somehow loose their wealth..."

So, goldhunter is not advocating anything or talking his book. Just trying to imply that there is nothing wrong with promoting that the readers of internet sites speculate on paper contracts against major international banks and hedge funds. Speculating on paper contracts instead of spending their spare cash on the consistent everlasting value of circular beautiful golden objects of definite intrinsic value.

Your premise regarding my position is distinctly invalid, and you could not know the truth of the matter, therefore the basis for your rant demands to be called into question. Furthermore, as you have expressed no indication of an understanding the the wider "infrastructure" to which I refer, particularly as it relates to such specific unsustainable and "collapsable" elements, I must say that your general message is corrupted by your shallow comprehension--though I do appreciate the depth of your apparent emotion. I hope that works to your advantage somewhere. Perhaps, as the lessons of life bring you more insight, wisdom, and communication skill, I may find that dialogue with you is something worth my while. But for now, I have more pressing matters to attend to, such as counting my elbows, relatively speaking. (I may stand on my head on occasion, but certainly not about these matters.)

You are partially right...The Comex exchange does have hedgers (bullion banks, mines, etc.) and speculators too...

And some (mostly the longs) have lost money as have almost every coin holder in the past years, because we are near historical lows...

When the trend changes, the longs (both coin holders and futures holders) will make lots of money...

My statements have been such that we are all team-mates (all of us bull mkt folks) and our fortunes rise and fall together. I will go on record (again) that when this bull trend gets going (over $340?) that the futures market bulls might be very helpful to us because large funds/speculators may be piling in at the same time hedgers are buying back their shorts...

It would certainly help if the hedgers started today or soon...It would send a great signal to the marketplace...

If you're truly interested in a market, you may choose to look at as much of the market as possible...futures (paper) is a very large part of our global economy...and they're (probably) not going away any time soon...The largest players (both hedge and specs) as well as small ones are involved.

My posts are meant to offer some balance as to what goes on here because this is a wonderful forum with exceptional talent, and folks deserve not only opinions, but facts.

I have not tried to advise you...you're not interested...alot of people aren't. But watch futures and coins move together...both ways...influenced by a variety of fundamental and technical factors.

Read or listen to your choice of information. Please be able to tell the differences of fact and fiction. More knowlege is better for all of us.

Good luck to you.

Hi ET!

Thanx for the link. The guy wouldn't completely convince me -- but he's on the right track to dis-mything government!!

Regards & thanx, j.

I certainly hope you know more about the number of elbows you have than you know about Comex futures trading...your knowlege of at least one of these subjects is severly lacking...

Good night.

Here is something to ponder other than the rhetoric surrounding the election circus/drama in the Sunshine State. Friend of the firm, Leonard Kaplan at Prospector Asset Managment, brought this to our attention today. He found it in one of Britain's newspapers, The Daily Telegraph.

It appears that 75% of the 500-franc notes and 20% of the 200-franc notes are out of circulation. Using today's exchange rates, this computes to about U.S.$20 billion. Where on earth could this money possibly be? Most likely stuffed away in the mattress. Now with the coming conversion to the Euro, much of this "black market" money could find its way into other markets. I suspect that some, perhaps most of this money, has never been taxed. What better way for the French government to "surface" the underground economy than to require all conversions of French currency into Euros be reported. Lots of extra tax revenue. So according to Mr. Kaplan, some of this money will be converted into something not traceable---GOLD. We here at Centennial believe that the French people will look to their own French coins of a bygone era, i.e. French Roosters and French Angels and will begin buying them en masse. Because the supply coming out of Europe is so limited, any additional buying pressure (such as this scenario) will cause the premiums to jump considerably.

I am reminded of the times in October 1997 and 1998 when the world experienced a financial crisis first in Asia, South America and then later in Russia that it became nearly impossible to obtain pre-1933 gold coins from Europe until the crisis was resolved--thanks to Alan Greenspan. Will we be so lucky next time around? From the looks of Wall Street and the European bourses, I say not. Wall Street has just lost $3 trillion of market capitalization in the past two months. The bear market has come out of the closet and is mauling everything in sight. As soon as he is done with the NASDAQ, he will feast on the S&P500 and finally the DOW.

In short: sales in key sectors of the economy are dropping, revenues are dropping; thus earnings are way below expectations. Chart patterns look horrible and are tracing out the typical bear-market scenario. Now add to this mix the fact that tax receipts have fallen far short of expenditures and the fact that the Fed is pumping billions into the banking system to avoid collapse. Just in first 20 days of the month of November the federal debt increased by $18 billion! So much for paying down the national debt. This number comes to us compliments of Fed watcher and friend of the firm, Adrian Van Eck, whose newsletter is just superb!

So the bottom line here? The time for gold has arrived. We have received numerous phone calls from the stock market refugees who have escaped with some of their principal intact. We expect to see more movement into gold as a safe haven in the coming financial storm. This is a good time to buy gold or add to existing positions before stocks take another nosedive and foreigners trash the U.S. Dollar as they move their money back home.

Hi goldhunter!

It's fairly well documented that there is an excess of PHYSICAL demand over PHYSICAL supply in the CIRCULATING gold markets globally.

Where will the "extra" gold come from to meet this demand (like in India, Indonesia, etc.)? Will the Central Banks dishoard or allow their leased gold to be written off?

Or do you dispute the goldbug supply-demand disharmony?

Regards,
Journeyman

I have not "lost money" on gold coins. I can truthfully say that I have never sold one. I have traded some bullion coins for certified numismatic gold coins, and that worked out to be a good trade at the time about 4 years ago. I have lost money on paper contracts. I will not lose any more on paper.

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmI have sold gold coins at a gain. And numismatic coins on certain internet auction sites.

http://www.usagold.com
I want to enter into the fray regarding the Comex.

When the Washington Agreement was announced I made $50,000
in paper profits. Being relatively inexperienced, $45000 of those profits evaporated. At the time of the Placer Dome rise, I made another $10000 or so.

However, I do feel I was cheated by the Comex exchange.

During the run up after the Washington Agreement, the Comex arbitrarily changed the rules and said you could not sell options at a price but had to trade them at market (not even knowing what that was). A friend of mine put in a sell order when Dec $400 gold calls last traded at $800, and his broker sold them at "market" and got him $250 or so. He was cheated.

What I percieved at that time was that the Comex changed the rules when the big boys were in trouble.The Comex is regulated,but it is mostly self-regulated.

All that being said, I still believe that options offer tremendous leverage at low risk that you cannot find anyplace else. But you certainly shouldnt gamble with any money you arent willing to part with.

Based on past performance, a rapid run up in gold and silver will probably again see the Comex changing the rules to favor the big boys to some extent.

Isnt that true Goldhunter?

Nice reminder of what's happening around us while we stare straight ahead.

I was channel surfing on the tube the other night and fell upon that freak who locked himself in the ice block for 3 days.

Okay so he's doing what he has to do. He's a weirdo trying to kill himself, that's his problem. The part of the equation that I can't fathom is the American lust to have this guy set up in the middle of Time Square, 'media-ize' this thing to death and show the miraculous escape on prime time.

What is the purpose of this? What is there to gain by having this freak on prime time TV demonstrating to every wided-eyed kid that acting like a freak is a huge 'draw'?

On a different but related note.

On the evening of Nov.7th we witnessed the media 'blow' the call in Florida. The media botched their election coverage and as an experiment I carefully followed the newspaper coverage over the next couple weeks looking for comments regarding the irresponsible behavior of the major networks.
Comments ranged from the premature victory calls to the outrageous, presumptious, irresponsible election coverage by the TV networks. The theme however was uniform; the media is out of control.

Statistics are statistics and those surveys that are correct within 5%, 19 out of 20 times caught the networks with their pants down. Yes, they caught the 5% the one time and they were WRONG.

The coverage of the ICEMAN is wrong. Let's look at this FREAK ICEMAN a little closer. First, he's using this dorkish ploy to atract attension, ultimately for bucks. I don't care. He's playing odds of living or dying staying for some 61 hours inside a 6 tonne cube of ice. Again I don't care. Incidentally, I don't want the guy to die but hey, if he dies he won't pull that stunt again. Second, do I want to watch this bullsnot on television. No, I don't want to watch some fool die on TV trapped inside a block of ice. Third, my 10, 12 and 13 year old children should not be allowed to watch this crap. If this guy lives 'he's a hero.' No, he is not a hero, he is a dork, a FREAK.

So here is my point.

I didn't watch ICEMAN, I didn't like it and I don't see the point. I cannot come to any positive out of it and I do not understand why this is on the air.

And that is the point my man, it WAS on prime time and the networks DID make a big to-do out of it. It WAS watched and the next day it WAS in the papers. The media after the screwed up election coverage ARE televising the post-election madness to death. It IS what America wants.

I'm from Canada and I would like to think that the 'mounties' would arrest a nutbar like ICEMAN, 30 days of 'accessment'. We follow the US and are a couple months to a couple years behind in most aspects but we are in perfect steplock with our neighbours. It's getting scary out there, I am worried for our US friends. The image of ICEMAN breaking out of a block of ice (while on national television) seems so 'American'.

I hope Americans change this image that they portray to others and/or I hope we don't follow.

Canuck.

Your question is the most important oneexcept for : When?

Why, if we have more physical demand than supply, is the price falling or so low?

Maybe there is a large faction holding the gold price down (GATA supposition) by selling endless paper/physical/leasing.

Maybe we don't have as much yearly demand as we have supply...

Economic theory tells us that supply and demand will reach an equilibrium with the variable being price...if the demand is too high, prices rise...if the supply is too high, prices fall.

Since 1980 all-time-high, the price has been in a long term down trend...if it's SIMPLY supply/demand, then maybe the answer is all the selling (supply) going on by central banks and the like...But, SOMEBODY is buying all that gold too...The buyer thinks he can sell for more in the future...

Time will tell...Your question, where will the extra gold come from? The market price today is already telling me there is extra gold in the marketplace.

My opinion though is that perception could change very quickly in gold...we could see a gap up of 50 or 100 dollars some Monday morning, and the bottom is in...Major Bottom.

I'm not smart enough to know any answers...I wish I was. I would share them with USA, G.E., and K..Co and this bull would get in gear.

I did say a few days ago, that if gold was "consumable" like oil is, (no large world-wide stock-pile) that gold would probably be several thousands per oz.

Supply/demand analysis has worked well in energy the past 18 months...If your premise is right: more physical demand than supply in the gold market, There is something fishy in the gold market.

One more thing, India has seasonal demand (their wedding season),and, they and China are VERY price conscious...If the price spikes up too far, they stop buying...

I wish I knewthe right answer, and I wish I knew "WHEN"

Sir JBear:

You are correct:

I assume that world trade will continue. I assume that there are powerful forces involved in a long-term concerted effort to eliminate the US$ as the world currency. I assume that a currency war in underway. I assume that one of the two alliances will win the war and that world trade will proceed. World trade has not been interrupted in at least 300 years. Much upheaval has appeared on the scene in the last 300+ years. Trade as we know it has come to a halt in certain locations at various times because of the upheavals yet world trade has continued and continued only because currencies were available lubricate the transactions.

Should the US$ be brought down I would expect that trade as we know it in the US may very well shift to barter mode for a while but world trade, though at an abbreviated level, would proceed and the new third world nation ( the USA) would gradually participate in world trade yet never again with the hegemony it enjoys today.

Of course my assumptions are not facts and I do not mean to imply that they are so. Your point is well taken.

HBM

Hi tedw...This is what I recall:

The rules were changed in the marketplace but not because of COMEX...

2 gold mining companies, one starts with A... the other starts with C... got caught with large hedge positions that rapidly went against them as the price of gold (both futures and physical) started to soar because of the Washington agreement.

In about 4 days the gold price (and call options) soared...gold rallied to about $335 (from memory) and the calls and coins were on fire too...

All of a sudden something crazy happened...some DEAL was made whereby these two companies were given some special consideration...They didn't have to meet their "margin calls" with their counter-party buillion bankers (NOT at the Comex exchange)...

The price of gold turned on a dime, option premiums fell out of bed, and the HUGE volume upside became crazy HUGE volume downside as the longs bailed out...

Your story isn't an isolated incident...But it was due to an extra-ordinary change to accomodate these couple gold mining companies...I think I recall some foreign countries making emergency gold available to the cash/leasing marketplace too...

It would have been great to have the gold price keep going...

The difference between your $250 price and $600 or even $800 per option may have only been a couple hours or a day at best...it was a VERY volatile couple of days...

Had we made it closer to your strike price of $400, you would have done MUCH better...We never hit $340...which is my current price level opinion of a decent break-out.

The Sensibilities of your post...made my day...Thank you....YGM

Keep your faith.....I for one ain't interested....you said...He would have you believe that Comex players are on their way to the poor house or worse...be cheated or somehow loose their wealth...

*****No, no one ever lost wealth in paper before...Give me a break. The rules change everyday.....Better to have faith in Physical in hand than paper in somebody else's.....AND not that he needs defending but Randy has given some of the best concise advice and opinions these Halls have seen, so I for one will always listen to him, not some flamer from left field!....Good luck in the paper market...No Manipulation either...I BET....Ha!
'GO GATA' 'GO GOLD' 'GO PHYSICAL'

http://law2.house.gov/uscode-cgi/fastweb.exe?getdoc+uscview+t29t32+2111+32++%28ira%20bullion%29%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20There has been a lot of discussion on what defines a numismatic coin. This is an excerpt from the US Code which defines the Gold eagles as numismatic, according to the US congress.
CITE-
31 USC Sec. 5112 01/05/99
-EXPCITE-
TITLE 31 - MONEY AND FINANCE
SUBTITLE IV - MONEY
CHAPTER 51 - COINS AND CURRENCY
SUBCHAPTER II - GENERAL AUTHORITY
(i)(1) Notwithstanding section 5111(a)(1) of this title, the Secretary shall mint and issue the gold coins described in paragraphs (7), (8), (9), and (10) of subsection (a) of this section, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand, and such gold coins shall -
(A) have a design determined by the Secretary, except that the

fifty dollar gold coin shall have -
(i) on the obverse side, a design symbolic of Liberty; and
(ii) on the reverse side, a design representing a family of eagles, with the male carrying an olive branch and flying above a nest containing a female eagle and hatchlings;
(B) have inscriptions of the denomination, the weight of the

fine gold content, the year of minting or issuance, and the words ��Liberty��, ��In God We Trust��, ��United States of America��, and ��E Pluribus Unum��; and (C) have reeded edges.
(2)(A) The Secretary shall sell the coins minted under this subsection to the public at a price equal to the market value of the bullion at the time of sale, plus the cost of minting, marketing, and distributing such coins (including labor, materials, dies, use of machinery, and promotional and overhead expenses).
(B) The Secretary shall make bulk sales of the coins minted under this subsection at a reasonable discount.
(3) For purposes of section 5132(a)(1) of this title, all coins minted under this subsection shall be considered to be numismatic items.

The silver eagle and the states quarters are included in numismatic items in other sections of this code.

http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/I don't know... do _you_ want to spend some time wrapping your brain around some jargon and mindset of the derivatives crowd? Given that it's the infantilely-handled nitroglycerine that will blow up easiest, you might want to keep it on your screen... just don't let it spoil a good physical night's sleep.

Randy@the tower is it not horrible feeling when you are doing nothing but a huge favor, and an idiot comes around and attacts you cause you are harm to his perception of wealth obtention. You have done me a great favor in keeping and obtaining my wealth, and in the future will have helped me so much I feel already much in debt to your access of info you have elected to share. Anyways you know who is doing good for gold.

Good luck getting a rational let alone informed discussion about futures with this crew. Most and I stress most of these posters have never bought or sold a call in thier life'so don't sweat it. They can predict the future as well as you me or anyone, which is none. Futures are a tool to be used by intelligent, savvy investors which is why 90% of them lose money, because they are not intelligent savvy investors. Rigged or no rig, that has nothing to do with it.

http://www.usagold.comGoldhunter:

I beg to differ with you. The rules were changed by Comex.

Prior to the Washington Agreement, you could sell options at a price. For a time, you could not sell at a set price only at market. THAT WAS COMEX MAKING THE RULES. As I said a friend placed a sell order when the last trade was $800, and sold expecting to get that and got only $250. He was cheated by the Comex and thier changing of the rules.

You can make excuses for them if you want, but that is reality.

And where was the CFTC?

Tedw, goldhunter, Randy, all:

My first eye-opening event with regard to the manipulation schemes that occur on a somewhat regular basis at the COMEX was the silver fiasco involving the Hunt Brothers (Bunker and Herbert). Most of the silver bought by the Hunts was for prices under $10/oz. And silver subsequently rose to about $52/oz. The Comex and the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) changed the silver trading rules much as the NYMEX did recently with Palladium contracts. They simply raised margin requirements to 100% and at the same time they refused to allow the Hunt Brothers to take delivery of the physical metal. They went a step further by only allowing "sell orders" and not "buy orders." Of course before these rules changes took effect, several members of the COMEX and CFTC took on short positions. Interestingly none of these crooks went to prison, reinforcing the axiom that "those who own the gold, make the rules." To add insult to injury, not only did this theft by goldhunters friends at the COMEX and CFTC cause the bankruptcy of Bunker and Herbert Hunt, but also they blamed the Hunts for the collapse of the silver market.

That was then, and this is now. Has anything changed? Of course not! Recently these scumbags were back to their old tricks. The palladium market is a most recent example (though there are some choice example in the copper and petroleum futures markets as well). The rules were changed recently for the palladium futures market as well (as described in my essay "Death of a Market"). First the dishonorable Japanese on the TOCOM defaulted on the palladium futures market. They didn't even have the decency to commit Hari Kiri as their ancestors would have done after being caught stealing from innocent investors. The NYMEX did it one better; they changed the margin requirements (sound familiar?). They raised margin requirement well in excess of the spot price of the metal! Who ever heard of having to put up margin at two or three times the cash for the spot price of a commodity! The CFTC went along � in effect they played ball. If the IRS were to check into the financial well being of these crooks, we could see some eyebrow raising results. This type of chicanery is against everything the free market stands for. I for one won't touch this Mafia-run gambling casino with a 100-foot pole (even while wearing sterile surgical gloves). The officials at the NYMEX claim that they did it to ensure an orderly market � NO � they did it because they are self serving criminals that's all.

There is an obvious reason that Warren Buffett took possession of physical silver rather than contracts, George and Paul Soros own major positions in Apex Silver (SIL), and Bill Gates owns 10.3% of Pan American Silver (PAAS). I for one don't trust crooks like those at the COMEX and CFTC � because a leopard does not change its spots.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

From 20 years I research in Spanish historical archives the lost of ships that transported shipments of gold and silver. Now I have prepared a study to value of as much as it consists this economic potential that Spain has "sleeping" and that anything is made to recover. Of the 870 ships that I have registered and that they got lost from 1492 up to 1823, the quantity of gold is made of some 900 metric tons and the silver 12.000 metric tons. These quantities are in currencies, ingots and jewels, being both first most. Separated these goods, it is necessary to consider the impressive value of goods like Chinese porcelains, precious stones, and the art objects. It is undoubtedly, an impressive economic patrimony, and, like I said, anything makes to recover. I am to disposition for people interested in discussing this topic.

Previously posted during the palladium default a few months ago!
The Palladium markets have been under some very strange manipulations over the last several weeks. There is a very good chance that Palladium will be delisted or very severely restricted from futures trading in the near future. Much of this is a result of greedy unscrupulous and probable criminal actions of those that manage and oversee the commodities exchanges in Tokyo at the Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) and the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). The troubles began when more contracts for Palladium metal were sold than actual deliverable physical metal in the possession of certain counter-parties.

This story has its beginnings in the Fall of the Soviet Union. First Russia is the source for about 70% of the worlds Palladium The Palladium is a by-product from nickel mining operations at Norilsk Nickel. Another simple fact is that the Russians have been in a very serious hard currency crunch since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. The Russians took out loans and issued worthless bonds for a few years as they struggled to dig their way out of over 70 years of government mismanagement under communist rule. The Russian Bond default almost brought world markets under severe pressure and many firms went under. However, these people in Russia had no experience with a free-market and still operated their economy under corrupt Soviet-style management practices, they over-taxed businesses, they stole foreign investment moneys, and they even got into bed with Russian Organized Crime. Anything of value was looted by criminals and corrupted individuals, many of whom themselves are Russian Politicians or former Politburo members. In the resulting hard currency crunch as the worthless Russian bonds came due and were eventually defaulted on, there was a rush to shake down legitimate businesses through extortion and excessive taxation, to sell off former state-owned enterprises to corrupt cronies of Russian politicians for a pittance, and to loot hard assets including government stockpiles precious metals. The simple fact is that the PGM stockpiles of many years worth of mining are depleted. Any PGMs that are to be delivered will have to come from current mining production at Norilsk Nickel. A major problem at Norilsk Nickel as with most any enterprise in Russia is 1) that the operations are grossly inefficient and are in dire need of funds to upgrade operations to at least 20th century standards, and 2) the Russian workers don't get paid on a regular basis which is not only bad for morale, but does not provide a lot of incentive for productivity. Unfortunately many businesses still try to run on the old Soviet model which simply does not work. In the old Soviet Union, workers were paid a set rate whether or not they were productive. In the real world, this does not provide an incentive to produce goods and services. No matter how you slice it, there is no sufficient supply of Russian Palladium coming to market.

The Russians tried to disguise this inefficiency by employing delaying tactics while in negotiations with the Japanese in talks earlier this year. Eventually the talks resulted in much higher prices for the Palladium contracts, yet supply has not reached the market in any meaningful quantity and is sporadic at best. Realizing the severity of the problem, many commodities investors in Japan bought heavily into the Palladium futures contracts. Like most any greedy and corrupt organization, the TOCOM generously wrote contracts for what was undeliverable metal without checking whether or not this commodity was even in existence. But greed is a powerful emotion and the TOCOM became a place of wild dealing and speculation. They thought that they could control the situation with numerous press releases and by setting "analysts" loose with erroneous information in an effort to deceive the market. Eventually this became a delaying tactic of choice as they searched for a way out of the developing short squeeze. Many who had actually believed the erroneous reports went short the Palladium market. The market was totally out of control. More and more press releases were set loose on the investment community that there were deliveries of Palladium on the way, and that they would arrive "any day" now. The situation was getting more critical almost on an hourly basis as it was beginning to become apparent that the metal was not coming to market. Soon many traders began to go long Palladium futures. The short squeeze was on! The TOCOM manipulators got caught with their pants around their ankles and even with the risk of "losing face", they did the most dishonorable thing that they could. They defaulted on the Palladium contracts! In effect, they shut down the Palladium market. They forced the longs to settle at market in order to help bail out the shorts. The free-market in Palladium on the TOCOM was killed.

Now we move to New York were the last bastion of the "so-called" free-market in commodities is located in the from of the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). Many commodities investors thought that at least in the USA there wouldn't be such gross manipulation of the Palladium market. They were to be proven wrong. A short review of the Hunt Brothers and the Silver squeeze and the more recent settlement at market on the contracts during the developing short squeeze when the Washington Agreement was announced should have been a lesson learned. The corrupt managers of manipulative commodities exchanges such as the NYMEX change rules at will in order to manipulate the markets and to ultimately steal from investors. The latest manipulation in Palladium brings us to New York. In early August after the TOCOM had defaulted on Palladium futures contracts, the NYMEX realized that they too had a developing short squeeze in the works. What to do? Why not engineer a profit making scheme and manipulate the Palladium market at the same time? Hell, the CFTC is a toothless tiger, so why not? They didn't investigate curious happenings in other metals markets, so the signal was given that the CFTC would not interfere.

In early August, the NYMEX imposed substantial margins on Palladium futures contracts. The result was to drive prices lower in a grossly obvious manipulation of the Palladium market. This caused many investors to quickly exit the market in order to lock their profits. On August 14, the September Palladium contract fell as much as $60 per ounce. Now all exchanges require margin in order to cover the risk of losses, but in the Palladium market, this went beyond reality. Margins were raised six times in short order. On August 15th it was raised to $60,000 per contract, on August 16th it was raised to $80,000 per contract, and on August 17Th it was raised yet again to $100,000 per contract! Of course the 100 ounce contract was only worth $74,000 per contract at that time. The manipulation scheme by the NYMEX criminals was on! The washout of certain investors was set with bogus excuses such as to "ensure an orderly market" - read "manipulated market". By the close of business on August 18th, the margin on contract had risen over the course of 10 days to $100,000 from $5,000 for clearing house members, to $110,000 from $5,000 for members, and to $135,000 from $6.750 for customers. Many had wondered how can a margin requirement be set for as much as 150% of the total contract value? This was unprecedented! They weren't finished! They even had the gall to announce that margins would be raised further to $200,000 as if to tempt fate with the emasculated CFTC, however, this was eventually rescinded prior to implementation. I guess like all cockroaches, when the lights are turned on they scatter to the dark recesses to get out of under public scrutiny.

What was the NYMEX trying to do? The answer is obvious - manipulation, pure and simple! Open interest on outstanding contracts (September) had fallen from 852 to 783 contracts when the market opened after the announcement. Open interest in December futures increased to 1,234 contracts from 900 contracts, indicating that 300 rollovers had taken place. Many angry market participants claim that this was the intention of the NYMEX manipulators. The NYMEX simply wanted to force as many players out of the market as possible before a truly powerful (and profitable) short squeeze began, or better yet, manipulate the price lower to bail out the shorts just like in Tokyo. Dishonor knows no nationality or culture it seems - crooks hang out in the same circles. The greed factor was at work in New York just as it was in Tokyo. There was not enough metal on hand and yet these NYMEX crooks sold more contracts for metal than existed. In fact, the entire warehouse stocks are only 150 contracts! The NYMEX-approved warehouses are located in New York and Wilmington, Del.

From my point of view, I think that this could be a contract killing situation for most Palladium market participants. However, those who hang on and take delivery may be in an excellent situation. The Russians cannot and will not deliver the metal in sufficient quantity as I have stated for months now. The actual priced for the physical metal could far surpass the paper contract price. If only a few participants take delivery, the warehouse are bare. The Platinum metal supply situation is better, yet there are some supply problems here as well. As the industrial users of Palladium shift to Platinum and Rhodium, these prices are likely to come under increased pressure as well. Fortunately Platinum and Rhodium are a bit more available from sources outside of Russia such as South Africa, US, and Canada. The Palladium futures market was killed! There is now speculation that the Palladium market may simply be delisted. Can the same thing happen in other commodities? Obviously! I appears that manipulation in the Gold and Silver markets is an open secret. The CFTC has no compelling interest in performing their stated function of ensuring a free and fair commodities market. The moral of the story? Take possession of physical metal, invest in unhedged and profitable miners who have little or no debt, stay out of the rigged options and futures markets, and wait as the inevitable price increases occur. The death of the paper metals market is certain. The game is rigged.

- Black Blade

Se--or Histres,

Usted trae un interesante sujeto a este foro. Yo tambi�n estoy muy interesado en tesoro de espa--ol perdido viejo. Yo he seguido las haza--as de Se--or Mel Fischer y su localizando el Atocha. Recientemente, yo he estado esperando por la exhibici--n del S.S. Central Am�rica que hundi-- fuera de de la costa de los Carolinas en los Estados Unidos. Me gustar'a obtener unas doblones oro espa--ol viejo para mi colecci--n. Usted puede haber notado que nuestro anfitri--n Michael Kosares tiene algunos para la venta. Gracias por la informaci--n y la suerte buena. Perdoname, por que no escrito muy bueno en espa--ol. Hace much tiempo desde que huve mucho optertunidad a practicarlo.

- Black Blade

"You cannot trade dollars for hours.

You run out of time in life."

Some work for minimum wage
Some work for 15.00- 20.00 hr.

Some work for 100,000.00 hr.

All is paper. end of story.

DE JA VU!

We all know nothing is fair in life. Look @ the election.
Why do you people continue to fight over what everyone already knows.

I have done this for years and I have seen thin mkts , locked mkts, flat mkts, bull mkts, bear mkts etc.

Trade it!!!!

Like miss piggy said, when the going gets rough, you are obviously in the wrong place.

RG,
I am a little late and perhaps others have done it before me, but your msg 42584 was great.
Thank You for outlining so brilliantly what poor minds like mine get from this Forum.
The IVH.

(12/1/2000; 1:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42584)
HUGE THANKS
This is just fantastic that I have been able to gather such valuable information for myself, as I am an ohterwise lost individual. But I have been directed to a great spot for relevant an insightful info, and for that I must give up thanks, even if gold tanks, I know of the truth that is being strived for here. How can truth be wrong?? Keep uncovering truth, and may I thank all who are doing so thanks. Thank you for all the years, of serious devotion to more then just research of how to benifit for yourselfs, but to all the REAL thought that has gone into uncovering truth. Eventually lets kill the lies in whatever the truth is being hidden in.

Goldhunter
Well time will tell whether Randy is a fool or not. However, I would like to enquire whether you really feel that strongly about the issue, or if you just enjoy stirring the pot? If the former, there is an old adage, "you can catch more flys with honey than you can with vinegar". But then why would you want to catch flys?

I might add that few people at this site are here to make money, as represented by the US dollar. I certainly am not, and unless you understand the distinction, you are blowing air.

Hill Billy Mithchell
Now we are reading from at least nearby pages, if not the same page. Trade has gone on for far longer than 300 years, I will concede, and it will go on. However my concern is that if we get some form of upheaval that the rapidly changing conditions will promote some pretty irrational thinking, which in turn will create more tension. As you say, trade can be accomplished without a medium of exchange, but it is easier using a common medium of exchange.

Personally, I feel strongly that I want to be in a position to accomplish trade if some form of meltdown occurs. Anything I can accomplish now when more or less rational thinking is the order of the day, I want to do. No one can know how the future will play out, but we can speculate, and I do. I can't tell how well my plans will work out, but they undoubtedly will be better than no plans. One of my contingency plans involves precious metals, much like everyone else here. Some others are into Real Estate, which I am not AT THIS TIME. Liquidity and flexability are the order of the day, IMHO.

Thanks for your time, and best regards
j'Bear

Doesn't matter who is right or wrong:
Help those and say nothing
Dum vivimus vivamus

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=1135993&BRD=1124&PAG=461&dept_id=140561&rfi=6Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada says that POG will rise next year. The link tells it all.

Friday, 1 December 2000 14:36 (ET)

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec.1 (UPI) -- Iraq Friday carried out its threat to halt oil exports after the United Nations rejected an Iraqi request to increase the price of its oil. Oil prices on the world market responded overall by dipping after Iraq cut off supplies passing through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and Iraq's port of Mina al-Bakr on the Persian Gulf. The price of benchmark Brent crude was down to $32.27 compared to $32.68 on Thursday on the international spot market. Only Dubai light rose, presumably in theexpectation of increased sales to come.

Iraq is the Middle East's third largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iran. It has been exporting an estimated 2.4 million barrels of oil a day, some five percent of world trade. Almost all of it has reached the world market from the Ceyhan terminal. The U.N. said the requested surcharge would violate the sanctions's requirement that all income from oil transactions pass through the U.N. under its oil-for-food program. The move by Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein was the latest in Iraq's efforts to undo U.N. sanctions imposed after Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990. Iraq has been growing steadily more confident in recent months amid widening cracks in the sanctions regime, including the resumption of flights to Baghdad and restored trading by various countries. Iraq appears to some analysts to be as good as out of the box in which the United States has claimed to keep Saddam.

Baghdad Thursday again rejected proposals for new U.N. inspections to determine that Saddam was not acquiring an armory of weapons of mass destruction. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz gave a blunt "No" when asked whether Iraq would accept verification missions headed by chief inspector Hans Blix. Inspectors have not been allowed into Iraq since the US and the UK launched air raids on Baghdad nearly two years ago. The U.N. says the sanctions would only be lifted after inspectors have verified the absence of WMD.

The United States has said it and its allies would take swift remedial action if Iraq halted oil exports. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said Washington was ready to release more oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, and would do so quickly if needed. Richardson also said several oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, had pledged to compensate for any shortfall. Oil sales are believed to have raised Iraq's kitty for food and medicine to about $11 billion, enabling Baghdad to sustain a halt in oil sales for some time, observers said. Iraq also derives income from the tolerated sail of diesel fuel taken by road to Turkey and by oil smuggled down the Persian Gulf. Baghdad. and Damascus recently announced that a pipeline from the Iraqi oil center of Kirkuk to the Syrian Mediterranean port of Banias would be reopened.

Black Blade: Oil prices pulled back as US officials said that there will be no problem as other OPEC producers will make up the shortfall. Fat Chance! They are at production capacity and also are considering production cuts at the January OPEC meeting. US officials also said that they would also consider tapping the SPR for any oil shortage. NG looks hotter than ever - you can't import cheap NG!

by Jonathan Leff. 'LONDON (Reuters) -

Oil prices fell on Friday as traders took to heart pledges from key oil producers and consumers to compensate any supply shortages after Iraq made good on its pledge to turn off its oil taps. Oil loadings ceased at Iraq's two approved export terminals and crude flows through a main pipeline stopped late Thursday as a pricing dispute with the United Nations (news - web sites) reached its climax. But after an initially bullish reaction, Brent Blend crude oil for January slumped $1.73 cents to end at $30.15 per barrel after earlier touching an eight-week low of $30.10. U.S. benchmark light crude futures closed $1.77 cents lower at $32.05 a barrel after shedding 81 cents or 2.3 percent on Thursday when U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson first attempted to soothe fears of any shortfall in supplies. Two weeks ago Iraq told its customers all December sales would be subject to a 50-cent per barrel surcharge direct to an Iraqi bank account. It recently reaffirmed the tariff and said it would become effective as of midnight on Thursday. United Nations rules require Iraqi oil sales revenues go into an escrow account in New York where Iraqi purchases must be approved by a U.N. sanctions committee as part of oil-for-food. Iraq Denies Responsibility. Iraq, which makes up about five percent of internationally traded crude or just over two million barrels per day, denied responsibility for the interruption. "Iraq is determined to stick to its stand and its rights," the official Iraq news agency quoted an oil ministry spokesman as saying on Friday. Baghdad's proposed December crude prices -- which must be approved by the United Nations -- were widely seen as below market value in order to compensate for the 50-cent premium. The United Nations rejected these prices, although it said lifters could continue to take oil for later payment in an effort to throw the blame back on Baghdad. But immediate reaction to the cut in supplies was limited as futures and physical oil traders had been bracing for the disruption since Baghdad announced the new policy two weeks ago. Instead, most traders chose to focus on assurances from the world's largest producers and consumers that the loss of Iraqi crude would not cause any shortage in oil.

Black Blade: It's going to get real fun real soon.

by Ken Moritsugu, Knight Ridder Newspapers.

A leading oil market analyst warned Wednesday that gasoline prices could reach $3 per gallon next summer and that crude oil could rise to $50 per barrel in the next two to four years. "We're not quite in an energy crisis, but one is developing and I think this one's going to last longer and it's going to be a lot more difficult to resolve," said Philip Verleger Jr., who frequently testifies before Congress on energy issues. His scenario is at odds with the view of most other analysts, who believe that both oil and gasoline prices will ease somewhat next year. The Department of Energy projects that regular unleaded gasoline will average about $1.40 per gallon next summer, down from $1.52 this summer. But several experts agreed that the risk exists for higher prices if, for example, Iraq were to withhold its oil exports. There is little excess supply of oil, gasoline or heating oil in the United States, so any supply interruption or increase in consumption will create shortages that push prices up. "I don't think it's the most probable outcome, but it's definitely possible," said Bruce Cavella, an oil industry analyst for Standard & Poor's/DRI, an economic consulting firm in Lexington, Mass. "There could be any number of factors that could make oil go up to $45 because the market is tight." In a luncheon address to the Institute for International Economics, a think tank, Verleger painted a bleak picture for energy prices for the next four years. He predicted gasoline would reach $2.50 to $3 per gallon this summer and could reach $4 to $5 per gallon in two to three years. Prices that high could drive the U.S. economy, already expected to slow next year, into hard times. "That run-up in gas prices would be like a huge tax increase," said Mark Vitner, economist at First Union Corp., a Charlotte, N.C.-based bank. "It would take money away from consumers and leave them less to spend on everything else." Verleger blamed today's high prices mostly on bottlenecks in two areas: getting crude oil from overseas to the United States and refining that crude into gasoline, winter heating oil and other finished products. He added that aging U.S. pipelines to deliver those products leave regions such as the Midwest vulnerable to the pipeline breaks that helped drive up gasoline prices there to over $2 per gallon for a time earlier this year. Old infrastructure and logistical constraints create "a sclerosis" of the energy system, said Verleger, who runs his own consulting firm out of Newport Beach. "It's freezing up." OPEC nations, which produce 40 percent of the world's oil, has increased production this year. Despite tanker problems, that oil eventually should reach the United States, analysts say.

Black Blade: DITTO!

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm" Quite simply, the financial and economic excesses have been too great and the damage monumental, and there is today simply no way around the consequences. One of the more cogent comments we have heard recently came from CNBC's Ron Insana who stated that the present environment is similar to the 1998 crisis, with the U.S. this time at the "epicenter."

-End quote-

I simply do not understand the oil drop yesterday.

Iraq announces a production halt and crude drops? Even if OPEC promises to 'fill the gap' how can this be perceived as good news (ie crude dropping?)

I don't follow?????

I like gldr also, good work!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=htx/http2_mwA former gold traders sees gold rising but silver will not because there is to much of it.
Turkey Hunter

The link to the credit article (below) is a 'must read'.

The entire picture has struck me on the side of the head like a 2 x 4.

This 'puppy' is going down boys and girls. Our astute leaders, FOA, Ari, Oro et all have nailed this thing precisely. Paper is to burn; money, loans, derivatives, shares the whole thing. Everything, non-tangible is toast.
Physical ANYTHING is the prudent choice, physical money is number one. Paper money is to deflate big-time, it has to because it has been puffed up for years, inflated beyond recognizable conditions.

Only a decade ago I recall people talking of being a millionaire, this is passe, you have to be a billionaire now.

Gold and silver is 98% traded in paper form, money is '98%' bloated, derivatives are '98%' bloated, money has been fractionalized to the point where it's '98%' nothing. It's all the same thing. Paper, in all forms is 98% nothing.

Prudentbear describes the beginning of the unwinding, it will be the scariest debacle in the history of finance.

The US election mess is no accident, Canada called it's election on the heels of the US's because 'THEY' know. TPTB
know what's going to happen.

FOA, Ari and Oro are not posting because it's TIME. We are going to witness it boys and girls, THE HARD LANDING.

All the paper has shifted to the US because it had to, the last hurray, now it's over. The odds of a soft landing becomes more implauseible (sp?) by the minute.

Gore/Bush and Chretian will inherit the 'MONSTER UNWIND' and I wish them luck for all of our sakes. Prepare and brace.

(ALL above IMHO, none above to be construed as advice, opinion only)

Canuck.

http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/english.htmJust got back from a trip to Jamaica. Stopped at the currency window at the airport and exchanged $20 for the local currency and I got $800 Jamaican dollars - 40 to 1 exchange rate. I found out later that $US are accepted everywhere. I also saw a fine example of Gresham's law at work...when you buy something in $J dollars you get your change in $J dollars. When you buy something in $U.S. dollars, you get your change in $J dollars. Simple.

Met a guy who was visiting from Germany. He lamented that he had a good friend in Colorado that he would like to visit but couldn't because of the exchange rate between the euro and $U.S. He confirmed that life is just fine if one stays within the EU community to conduct financial transactions. Interesting guy...he spoke German, fluent English and Partois, the local Jamaican dialect - "Jah Mon".

While there, I met many Rastafarians who are really very beautiful people but their appearance easily (mis-) leads one to believe they are the lower class, less intelligent people of the island. The truth is that they often turn out to be multi-lingual and quite sharp. One of them told me they learn a language from exposure to the tourists. What amazed me most is that they smoke their ganja (read high grade marijuana that will rip your face off) from the moment they get up in the morning until they go to bed at night. Don't know how they can even find their way home let alone learn another language under those conditions.

After I got back from my trip, I reviewed about a weeks worth of posts. Certainly too many to respond to but one of particular interest was a post (by Journeyman, I believe) with a link to a great article by Hugo Salinas Price regarding Big Float. I navigated around the site and found the link above which lists several other articles from Price that are well worth reading. They have provided me with a clearer understanding regarding the $U.S. since Bretton Woods and the Nixon gold default in 1971. Also, one of the articles contains a great graph that illustrates the increase in $U.S. holdings of Central Banks before and after 1971 as well as their gold bullion holdings.

Good to be back...

Turkey Hunters previous link is disputable forsure, hehehe. Come on if Gold rips Silver will rip on an even larger % basis. Or if somehow silver did not rise with gold then just give it a bit of time from there. That would encourage a storm of physical hording of silver if Gold takes off and somehow silver did not. CBS news stuff is not always the best source for true info, but all else being said in that article sounds good. Can anyone here see how Gold could take off, and not Silver?

Cunuck, this oil market is just funny as can be. But BlackBlade has done a SUPPURB job of showing how a news story one day means nothing the next. BlakeBlade does a fine job showing that this is a BULL OIL market, and yes a crises is setting up(thanks BlackBlade). But in all seriousness With Iraq making that announcement, I cant believe that the market saw this as a positive, and decided collectivly that oil was worth less without Iraqi oil on the market.UUUUMMMM Good time to go long some options again. (This is investment advice... When oil dips you buy.) This is a bull market like the stocks used to be.
Iraq has more allies then it appears here on this oil issue. I do think along with BlakeBlade, the writing is on the wall here, we are going full speed ahead toward an oil crises. When you have comapanies trading at prices that are as high as all of the OPEC nations oil output for a year you have a pricing problem, that would be what you call unrealistic prices. You dont have to but your tickets on the computer, you dont have to go buy a new computer one cause you other is outdated, you dont have to pay or veiw those stupid porno sites What type of money are you forced to pay into profits for these internet comapnies?????? Now you do have to pay for gas to go to work,(If work will even be available)((Who is going to be paying overpayed lazy American workers when they wont have the money to pay anyhow)) you do have to pay Oil companies and producers for their services if you wish to see take a trip to the grocery store for food. This is about what is real and what is not, oil is for real, and anybody who does not buy that will just go to be surprised here when they find they have to. Internet companies, hahaha, all they have done is taken on large debt ((Why we have so much money expansion)) and wont beable to pay it back, they will fall like flies. MAN WE HAVE TROUBLES COMING!!! Keep an eye out they are coming from all angles!!

Strive to find Truth, truth is always the anser.

RIGHT ON!! Those Rasta folks are super people!! Peter Tosh is a man that may not look like he knows, but not many that have lived understood human compasion like that man. I believe he won a nobel peace prize for his NO More Nuclear War, nothing was hidden from his eyes. JavaMan I will come clean on something myself, if I loose whatever credibiltity I might have otherwise been granted, so be it, but I smoke ganja from getting up to going to bed (the goverment sure hates it)((Matter of fact Goverment report "The Report from Iron Mountain" explains how Ganja is eye opening, and that is not what they want. I just love good people that mean no harm, as do they. They understand the implications of lies and evil doings. I am just stoked that you saw they are good people, even though they may not look like you White House Lawyer, they are good people.

http://www.worldtribune.com/index-one-text.html I hope that link gets you where it is suppose to, dont overlook the funny banner right above the article, I am sure you wont.

http://www.billparish.com/citigrouppyramid.htmlBill Parish always has some interesting sleuth work to share...

I liked that banner above the story. Got a good laugh. Just to see it blinking above the title seemed to appear as a messsage from God above.
Turkey Hunter

If you're reading this morning, could you recommend a locale to stay in Nova Scotia that we could use as a jumping off point to see the larger area? Sorry for the off topic.

Your humble messenger boy is posting on behalf of David G as he is up to his ears in research. I know this is less than ideal, but is also considerably better than nothing. Message per David........................................Hi Auspec: Thanks for sending me Oro's message. I'm afraid things have been very hectic lately which has meant that I have been unable to visit the board myself.
I have every reason to believe that my SECRET GOLD TREATY book is only the beginning. There are bigger things afoot, although discovering that there is over 1 million tonnes of gold in existence versus official figures of about 140,000 tonnes is no small thing by itself. What we have are two distinct and totally separate financial and economic systems. One is open to daylight and is reported daily by the world media. The other is "black" and the media know never to ever report it, or if they do, they treat it as scams and frauds. There are a lot of those, too, but that is by no means the whole picture. The black world economy is simply massive in terms of transactional size when compared to the official world financial markets, although velocity is, naturally, a great deal smaller. As they say on the television adverts "size counts." This hidden market is to do with gold in the main but is not just gold related... a lot of paper is involved too.

There are still a large number of people with an interest in gold who haven't read my book yet. Obviously, I would recommend they did so, if they want to come up to speed on the hidden reality of the financial and metal markets. They would be in the company of Goldman Sachs, for example, who have been visiting and reading the site where the book is available (www.solari.com/goldtreaty/ ). Another interesting visitor was the US Army Corp of Engineers. I couldn't figure this out until it struck me that engineers digs things up. Many others have also shown an interest, too, including, I am told, someone close to one of the present Presidential candidates. Gold has many strange bedfellows it would appear.

I agree with Oro's analysis you sent. Although it seems foolish to most observers because it is out of their experience and because they have been trained to think in terms of official/public figures and statistics, transactions in the trillions of dollars do occur. I realised that very few individuals (other than those who know because they are involved) would accept this statement at face value. That is why I provided supporting documentary evidence in the book.

I am being circumspect in discussing this for many different and solid reasons, but I hope the foregoing will provide some small insight to the "other" world where the really big boys breathe and operate and grow to become billionaires overnight. Meanwhile, the world we know and think of as being the "real" world is simply a contrivance -- a hologram of unreality that is adorned with a necklace and bracelet of gold and gems and which has some dollar bills stuffed in its pseudo-wallet. As long as we continue being dazzled by the hologram, we'll never be able to see what lies behind the projection.

Regards

David

I often refer to Aesop's fable "The Ant and the Grasshopper." I saw this posted on one of the other sites a couple of times, but it is so much like how life is in the USA. In other words, punish the successful and reward the lackards.

Aesop's Fable � The Ant and the Grasshopper

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter so he dies out in the cold.

MODERN VERSION:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer way. Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to now why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed
while others are cold and starving. CBS, NBC and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper
next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so? Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper, and everybody cries when they sing "It's Not Easy Being Green." Jesse Jackson stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing "We shall overcome". Jesse then has the group kneel down to pray to God for the grasshopper's sake. Al Gore exclaims in an interview with Peter Jennings that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his "fair share". Finally, the EEOC drafts the economic Equity and Anti-Grasshopper Act", retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the government. Hillary gets her old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant, and the case is tried before a panel of federal judges that Bill appointed from a list of single-parent welfare recipients. The ant loses the case. The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he is in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him because he doesn't maintain it. The ant has disappeared in the snow. The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the once peaceful neighborhood.

Black Blade: I'm off to kill some ducks. As Arnie would say "I'll be back." :-)

http://www.usagold.com
First of all, Black Blade thank you for your recent post on the Comex. Black Blade is one of the most valuable assets on this forum: his updates on oil and metals are timely and informative. I personally appreciate the time he takes to post, and I think we all owe him a big Thank You.


I am intereseted in both Goldhunter and Black Blades thoughts on GATA's theory of conspiracy to depress the price of Gold.

Also their thoughts on what is happening with the silver market now.

Hello StrangerAre these guys over at Prudent Bear crepe hangers? Would you please comment on this latest PB discussion? Thanks Stranger.

The Death came upon....
by: lolalita28 11/30/00 4:15 pm
Msg: 3 of 3

And yes my gentle friends, the death is waiving its evil vail infront of my eyes every time I look at the streaming chart @ Quote.com. Just to say that because of the unholly doings of the mighty Stock Market I had to get a day job! The first in 2 years!! Can I live on my savings? you may ask - NO, 'cause that's what I've been doing for the past 8 months! and now... from having $135,000 in January I went to living on $2,000/month from the day job, with a $1,200 morgage & a new BMW, all acquired in the .com explosion. Now, can you say it's not death??!

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/paleo1.html
From the article;

"Eventually, of course, exactly as Rothbard had predicted, Buchanan went one
way and the spirit of what we might call paleo-paleoism went another. Today,
Buchanan is finished, like many a protectionist-nationalist office seeker
before him. Meanwhile, the radical spirit of bourgeois opposition to the US
State and all its works is everywhere on display. Indeed, the attempt by Gore
to seize power contrary to the Constitution has emboldened the movement like
never before."

excellent article - thanks

You may want to read Black Blade's rendition of the Ant and Grasshopper Aesop's Fable before you read this. His rendition is further down the page. Search for "msg#: 42685".


A researcher discovered an obscure interview with the grasshopper in a poorly circulated libertarian publication. The interview had taken place only days before Hopper was killed in what turned out to be an incident related to the Mr. Hopper's budding new profession. This led to Geraldo's now famous expose,

"Ant and Grasshopper: The Untold Story."

Here is, word for word, the obscure interview from that poorly circulated publication that Geraldo's staff worked from:

Raimondo: I'm here with Mr. G. Hopper, quite a celebrity of late. Mr. Hopper, can you tell me in your own words how you ended up destitute?

Hopper: Well, Justin, I've been giving that some thought lately. Sure I played around a lot last summer, but I believed I would be well taken care of by the government. I'm no lawyer, but they have all these plans -- unemployment insurance, disability -- even Social Security for when I'm old. I knew no matter what I did I'd be well taken care of. I mean FDR, Al Gore and "Dubya" all promised didn't they?

Raimondo: So you're saying that you didn't provide better for yourself because you thought others were going to take care of you?

Hopper: Well, yea, that was part of it. And after all, I DID pay for all these things, and I paid a lot! Would you like to see my pay stub? And after all the money they took from me, I _couldn't_ save -- there wasn't any left over.

Raimondo: Well Mr. Hopper, I can tell you you're not alone: The savings rate in America went negative earlier this year. On average, you're average.

Hopper: In fact, and I don't quite know how it happened to me, but I was maxed out on all my credit cards too! They just kept sending me these things, encouraging me to use them and all their easy money. They sent me my first one at the beginning of my freshman year in college when I didn't even have a job. How serious can they be about expecting to be paid back? I have ten or fifteen of them here somewhere. (Rummaging around under his right wing) Yea, here's one that they still take --- want to go have a beer somewhere? I'm buying.

Raimondo: So after all the deductions by governments you couldn't afford to save?

Hopper: Yea, that and the credit card payments and the car loan -- after all those payments I had less than 10% of my paycheck left. That's when I realized I'd never get out of debt. Reminds me of that old song, "You load sixteen tons and what do you get, another day older and deeper in debt," something, something "I owe my soul to the company stow." I think that's when my drinking problem started -- I wasn't really partying last summer, I was just trying to escape. And you know, the sad thing is it doesn't work.

Raimondo: Well, Mr. Hopper, I'm an interviewier not a councilor, but you CAN take control of your life.

Hopper: I have I think. I discovered that Mr. Ant had quite a lucrative business. There were some papers and things in the house. And you know his house wasn't really siezed for taxes -- that was just another media reporting error. They took it under civil asset forfeiture statutes. It seems Mr. Ant had been in the same situation I was. He discovered the only way to save was to not pay the 50% or so of his income taken by the IRS and F.I.C.A. "Social Security" tax.

Raimondo: So how did Mr. Ant manage that?

Hopper: He got into the underground economy. He became a drug dealer. Everyone saw him scurring diligently about all over the neighborhood at all hours. Well sure! He was well paid -- and he didn't have Uncle Sam as his silent vampire.

Raimondo: So you're going to become a drug dealer?

Hopper: I just joined the local distribution network yesterday! How about that!

Raimondo: It's pretty dangerous work sometimes. You know there are other safer things besides drugs to sell on the truly free markets.

Hopper: What do you mean "truly free markets?"

Raimondo: Oh, you're not a libertarian. I should have said "black market." That's the propaganda name the establishment uses to discredit some free markets.

Hopper: Oh. O.K. Whatever. But what things besides drugs can I sell?

Raimondo: Well some people are bringing in "black market" 5-gallon flush-toilets from Canada. Congress in it's infinite wisdom made it illegal to install any of these high capacity water closets here in the freest country in the world.

Hopper: Wow! Where can I get one. That sucker the ant had -- shucks, I have to flush that turkey three times. And even that's not enough half the time!

Raimondo: See the possibilities?

Hopper: Any other opportunities like that?

Raimondo: Well, they just made top loading automatic washers illegal here in the freest country in the world.

Hopper: Haw haw! That's a good one. Top loading washers illegal. Gafaw gafaw. I see you have a sense of humor as well as being a descent counselor!

Raimondo: I do have a good sense of humor, but this isn't a joke. They really did make the manufacture of new top-loader washers illegal.

Hopper: Why?

Raimondo: Front-loaders are the alternative and because of the front loading "feature" they can only wash smaller loads using less water.

Hopper: They think this will save water?? Well, DUH!!! We'll just have to do MORE loads, which will use MORE water. Where did these jerk-offs come from?

Raimondo: Washington D.C. Same folks who gave you that water-saving crapper that you have to serially flush. And the same place that says Social Security will take care of you in your old age.

Hopper: Wow! These guys really ARE taking care of us. What an opprotunity! Normal toilets and top-loading washers. No taxes! I'll be on easy street, just like the ant! I'm gonna quit the drug gang right now. (the hopper abruptly hops off down the street at high speed)

Raimondo: (Calling after him) You may want to be careful trying to quit that drug gang . . .

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. You can see more of Justin Raimondo's work by logging on to antiwar.com.

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

I'm having problems with the activities of the three major bullion banks in the gold market who amongst them have 100 billion in gold derivatives (bet against gold). 100 billion = 100,000,000,000 (one hundred thousand million) �. and if that isn't enough to suppress the price, they'll print up another 100, 200 or 800 billion more if necessary. There is talk of the ECB playing their gold card�ell folks, they already are. The ECB is selling 400 tons a year, not buying (Why do you think the Euro has been plummeting?) When the BOE announced their sales, was there not howling here that their currency would plummet as a result? Why should it be any different when the ECB sells it's gold?�.. and the "Washington Agreement" (don't you just love that name) which almost all the participants at the World Gold Conference in Paris lauded, (uh oh!) stipulates that after five years the agreement will be re-evaluated. What if after five years it is their decision to sell 800 tons a year instead of 400.

A petty thief stands in relation to organized crime as organized crime stands in relation to (Central) bankers. What can be done about these criminals that answer to noone and control ALL governments? They control every major news outlet and have circulated and recirculated byline after byline that gold and dirt are about equal, with dirt having a slight edge.

"Ours is the first age in which many thousands of the best trained individual minds have made it a full-time business to get inside the collective public mind. To get inside in order to manipulate, exploit, control is the object now. And to generate heat not light is the intention. To keep everybody in the helpless state engendered by prolonged mental rutting is the effect of many ads and much entertainment alike." (A quote from almost a half-century ago)

Marshall McLuhan.
(This man was 100 years ahead of his time.)

Electronic media is the most pervasive and powerful tool in the history of the world! And in my opinion this is why the paper stranglehold on gold won't be broken anytime soon. It would take great physical gold demand, and the media has seen to it that demand has been neutralized. Just look at the low mintage of American Eagles this year, only 30,000 to 40,000. When Gold was "flying" in 1979-1980 the closing market price was quoted nightly on the evening news of all three major networks. (The bullion banks must have been "long" at that time.)

Much attention has been given to Mr. Greenspan's quote that "Central Banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise," but much less to another statement I deem just as significant (paraphrased) "There will be nostalgic waxing over the relative automaticity of the gold standard for decades to come by those trying to replace it" (Replace it with what, Alan of the forked tongue? **answer below**) I think "DECADES TO COME" is the key phrase that telegraphs their intentions.

There are those who have the romantic notion the Mr. Greenspan is a closet gold bug. I have no respect for the man.

I also have problems with the concept of gold standing apart from fiat as a wealth asset. That would be impossible. For now they stand next to each other and Fiat is considered the wealth asset and gold the imposter. Gold as money would reveal the true imposter. That is why in the past when the game went too far and necessitated a new currency it was "BACKED,"�fiat cannot stand alone in the shadow of gold.

I have no complaints about losing a wager on the wrong horse in a fair race, but when my horse has been drugged and trails the field, I know I have been cheated and am justified in stating that my money was stolen and the outcome was predetermined. There is no doubt in my mind that Barrick was IN ON THE FIX, being "tipped off" by George Bush and others who are on the board of directors. Thus they maximized their hedging polices. (You didn't think Peter Skunk was that smart, did you? And do we want another "Bush" president? After all, he is his father's son.) Politics doesn't attract honest men; I know this because they have to preface their names with "THE HONORABLE." Really, I am a positive person who just tries to be objective.

MAKE NO MISTAKE, GOLD WILL WIN THIS WAR!!!!!!! Gold has lost many battles, but NEVER, NEVER, NEVER A WAR, especially one fought against it with paper. Sad that THEY have now rigged the game so that the holders of gold can only be correct in the event of near or total systemic failure. Then all we need to worry about is them sending authorities to confiscate our gold and instituting severe penalties for being caught holding it. GOLD, you can't smoke it, snort it, or shoot it, but possession of it might result in the same penalties as drugs.


PS: Isn't it funny how stocks like QualComm, Amazon, (or any stock) can split multiple times and climb to an adjusted level of $900 to euphoric cheers, with exhortations to buy more while it's cheap, but if gold rises $20, a National emergency is declared and a media blitz ensues designed to exterminate gold bugs and their message, saying in essence they are dirty, filthy and cause disease. Yes, we do cause them dis-ease since truth and loneliness are best friends��. the people are unfamiliar with truth�.. Their leaders (Platonists) keep them in the dark while they bask in a herd mentality.��I call this next quote "CNBC explained."

"There is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on mathematical expectation, whether moral, or hedonistic, or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits, of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities. Thus, if the animal spirits dim, and the spontaneous optimism falters, enterprise will fade and die. In estimating the prospects of investment we must have regard therefore, to the nerves, and hysteria, and even the digestions and reactions to the weather of those upon whose spontaneous activity it largely depends."

John Maynard Keynes


Can anyone tell me how to stop these criminals when any Federal Judge assigned to a legal case against them will be appointed by them? When they will print endless stories exonerating themselves in every major newspaper in the world.

It's the $100,000,000,000 and the prospect of an infinite amount more that is plaguing gold. I think we knew this, but can somebody please explain how all these zeros will be overcome. Not the zeros perpetrating this crime, I was referring to all the zeros in one hundred billion�.eleven of them�100,000,000,000.

Since the rules will be changed and the shorts will not be required to deliver physical gold, how will the expected price spike occur?

**Can you say Totalitarianism**

I should probably not poke into this particular hornet's nest, either, but, with all appreciation due to our colleagues who share so much with us, I just gotta ask:

Is the first picture that comes to your mind for the Grasshopper a non-white American?

We've already been propagandized about "welfare queens" since the Reagan era and before. The reality is quite different for most non-Caucasian Americans. You'll have to draw on your own acquaintances, but the hardest-working people I know, on average, are blacks and immigrants. Not a "queen" among them. (They also are the most consistenly church-going groups.)

In times of severe economic dislocation, (like the Clearance Acts in the British Isles two centuries ago, driving peasants into the cities to work in mills or starve), as the manufacturing moving offshore here has been for 20 years, the underclass is driven further downward.

They neither understand the economy they find themselves in, nor do they gravitate toward good education/job choices in it. That takes time and intergenerational continuity that just has not taken place yet. Of course they need to learn how to swim in the times they find themselves in.

In the meantime, what, you let 'em starve? What the Dickens are you talking about? Just hope the Ghost of Christmas Future is gentle with you.

The fact is: NONE of us have understood this economy we've found ourselves in for 20 years. That's what we're HERE trying to figure out. Just that most of us white guys are floating from a higher starting point. Success, yes, from hard work combined with luck. Takes both, but a white skin is a big part of our starting luck. Deny that, man, and you're just tripping, as far as I can see.

That thing about walking in another's moccasins (great metaphor, huh? Think the Indians loan the blacks their moccasins?), remember? This lively mind of mine spending the past 30 adult years inside a black body would have had to learn some serious anger management. How about you?

We've ALL been working harder, for less, these last 20 years. Lots of us white men are angrier, with cause. Loss of status, of wealth. Someone's been eating our porridge, but it ain't the crumbs that have been thrown at welfare that did it. Check the numbers for yourself. It's more waste than welfare, a system grinding its way forward, but as long as you've been successfully pointed at an "enemy", you'll never find it.

Racism is still a social disease in US, as elsewhere.

Propaganda works. Divide and rule.

OK, let fly...

Made my day!

Regarding your question---"Is the first picture that comes to your mind for the Grasshopper a non-white American?"
A resounding NO in this case!
I will not begin a moralizing post as to racial prejudices, but the image to me was much more of what is referred to as a "bed wetting liberal" which knows no racial boundaries. May we all use our God given talents, however meager, to the utmost. Are you ready for winter??

Welcome back Trail Guide, you have been sorely missed and in fact folks ar starting to get a bit "snippy" around here in your absence.
Can you weigh in on a couple of controversial yet intriguing ideas so as to clear up some of the murky waters? I am specifically talking of a huge overhang of "Black Gold" as mentioned by David G in post #42684, and also the issue of "parallel" markets and economies mentioned in this post as well as ORO's post #42573. Should these entitees indeed exist they could certainly have some degree of crossover and influence with each other it seems to me. Is the existing "Black Gold" in very strong hands so our banking friends have little access to it? We would greatly appreciate your expounding on these topics as much as you feel comfortable doing. Thank you in advance!

http://news.excite.com/news/r/001201/12/news-economy-trade-dcFrom the link: "Economists have warned often that the trade deficit was a ticking time bomb. If overseas investors were to stampede to pull their money out of the United States, they argue, the value of the dollar would plunge and interest rates would rise to try to stop the funds from rushing out, causing the economy to slow and, perhaps, the stock market to plunge.

But researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reject that doom-and-gloom scenario in a recent report, noting that the majority of imports since 1997 have been in the form of direct investment in U.S. factories, firms and technology and in long-term securities -- money that simply can't get yanked back out with a click of a mouse."

JavaMan: I think it might be time to buy some more gold...

- and maybe I should (defensively, now) say, not all the gold produced is equal? - Nor, as Sir Auspec's quest to the existence of "black gold", would dent the end game outcome of the paper game? - Nor, a young paper (fiat) currency as the euro (dubbed zero) - only hapharzadly backed by pitiful 15% gold reserves and not convertible into anything real - only into the fragile political dis-union of the 11 of 15, where the # 1 is fighting # 2 for supremacy - as Nice will tell - can fill the void?

... And as I've missed a clear underwriting of the young new fiat (z-)euro, I'll better call MK to step up my physical acquisition plans ... and, of course, uninhibited locked in -the ground - reserves.

A view from Central (-Western) Europe - and thank you again for your powerful insight - cb2

And I also am proud to be a friend of "America"....YGMOne of my people just passed this to me.
I agree - maybe you will enjoy.

Regardless of who wins this election -I'm still proud to
be an American. Always have & Always will be- how about you?

This, from a Canadian newspaper, is worth sharing.

America: The Good Neighbor.
Widespread but only partial news coverage was given recently to a
remarkable editorial broadcast from Toronto by Gordon Sinclair, a
Canadian television
commentator. What follows is the full text of his trenchant remarks
as printed in the Congressional Record:

"This Canadian thinks it is time to speak up for the Americans as
the most generous and possibly the least appreciated people on all
the earth. Germany, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Britain and Italy
were lifted out of the debris of war by the Americans who
poured in billions of dollars and forgave other billions in debts.
None of these countries is today paying even the interest on its
remaining debts to the United States.
When the France was in danger of collapsing in 1956, it was the
Americans who propped it up, and their reward was to be insulted and
swindled on the streets of Paris. I was there. I saw it.
When earthquakes hit distant cities, it is the United States that
hurries in to help. This spring, 59 American communities were
flattened by tornadoes. Nobody helped.

The Marshall Plan and the Truman Policy pumped billions of dollars
into discouraged countries. Now newspapers in those countries are
writing about the decadent, warmongering Americans. I'd like to see
just one of those countries that is gloating over the erosion of the
United States dollar build its own airplane. Does any other country
in the world have a plane to equal the Boeing Jumbo Jet, the Lockheed
Tri-Star, or the Douglas DC10? If so, why don't they fly them? Why do
all the International lines except Russia fly American Planes?

Why does no other land on earth even consider putting a man or woman
on the moon? You talk about Japanese technocracy, and you get radios.
You talk about German technocracy, and you get automobiles. You talk
about American technocracy, and you find men on the moon - not once,
but several times - and safely home again.

You talk about scandals, and the Americans put theirs right in the
store window for everybody to look at . Even their draft-dodgers are
not pursued and hounded. They are here on our streets, and
most of them, unless they are breaking Canadian laws, are getting
American dollars from ma and pa at home to spend here.

When the railways of France, Germany and India were breaking down
through age, it was the Americans who rebuilt them. When the
Pennsylvania Railroad and the New York Central went broke, nobody
loaned them an old caboose. Both are still broke.

I can name you 5000 times when the Americans raced to the help of
other people in trouble. Can you name me even one time when someone
else raced to the Americans in trouble? I don't think there was
outside help even during the San Francisco earthquake.

Our neighbors have faced it alone, and I'm one Canadian who is damned
tired of hearing them get kicked around. They will come out of this
thing with their flag high. And when they do, they are entitled to
thumb their nose at the lands that are gloating
over their present troubles. I hope Canada is not one of those."

Stand proud, America!

Second your remarks to FOA: "snippy" is how it's seemed to me, and how I've felt as well. So it's time to start hiking once more!

Also second your request that he consider David G's info in the book that I will order anyday now. (Grasshopper-ish of me.)

No, I'm not entirely ready. Except for the financial preparations we discuss here. And moving out of city to a farm as part of Y2k readiness.

Career is the hard part. My talents in math led me to tax work right out of college. Talk about an unreal world. The IRS Code weaves through my brain cells.

If dollars are a derivative's derivative (debt's green shadow), then taxes are another remove or two away from reality. That's why I've been pursuing monetary education among our colleagues here.

Try to think of what a REAL career is. My most physical job was in construction work, but the product that people were willing to pay me to do was unsatisfyingly artificial.

Farming would get my vote, but we know how well farmers have done these past few decades. Maybe the day is coming. I remember doing two years' work on farms, barefoot in the cornfields and tomato rows. If I have to again, I could. This time the land will be mine.

So why did I rent "The Grapes of Wrath" to watch again last week?

Anyway, just to keep the pot boiling, somewhere in me I believe that you do not learn the economics of work by either welfare or by employment, but only by SELF-employment. Which means that when you wake up every morning you're UN-employed until you get cracking. Cure for anybody's bed-wetting.

"Truly, the dollar is dying from it's own old age and it's debt burden is the final disease."

With a month away, new perspective arrives. This is really FOA's central message, and the revaluation of gold (vs fiat and other real assets) is a secondary offshoot of this. Also less specifically predictable.

And this is the part that's hardest to see since we little fish swim in a sea of dollars, strive for them, sock them away (not me, anymore).

Learning about how a currency is "transitioned" out to pasture after such a loud career is a big job. It challenges our psychology at every turn.

Welcome back, FOA. I hope your family is entirely well.

http://dailynews.netscape.com/mynsnews/story.tmpl?table=n&cat=50900&id=200012010807000205600
Most interesting part of the short off-beat article:

"Russian tax police -- known for storming buildings in black
ski masks to conduct an audit -- have had something of a public
relations problem, as did the widely despised Roman tax
collectors, or "publicans," of biblical times.

St Matthew himself was a publican, before giving up the
profession to follow Jesus. In Matthew's book of the Bible,
Jesus frequently lumps tax collectors along with prostitutes as
being allowed to enter heaven if they accept God."

Regards, j.

It will be interesting to see if Trail Guide responds to your query concerning "black gold". I think, if he does not (respond) then, the alleged existence of a shadow economy etc. has no bearing on his message. In fact, I do believe that one can say (about FOA/Another), "Boy, I really get it. I really understand" without really understanding anything at all. I've made that comment my poor self many times. I think trying to understand TG is like trying to understand and discuss the subject of "creation to eternity"; the Alpha & Omega. The subjects cannot be thoroughly understood until one comes in contact with them personally, in the context of the existence one does understand; that is to say, one's day to day realities in the here and now. All those of us who maintain that, "we really get it", will be quite shocked I think if the paradigm (monetary) shifts. The world at the time will indeed change.

As regards the black gold and holders of same, my life is incredibly rich and has been for over 40 years. I've no concern for them or their "plans" as I have my own designs on both the here and now as well as eternity. Besides, they will still require a functional serfdom working hard on the plantation to keep their ownselves in the high cotton. I do wish them well.

Will the CBers get any "black gold"? Could you ever really know the true answer to that question anyway? I'm (too) long in the tooth....CM

Randy@Tower . Indeed. :)
Black Blade . Re: The Ant & the Grasshopper. Sounds like Australian Social policy to me. :)

Hello all!

No, I'm not fully back yet but will try to make time. I have a lot to say and update on and will try to slowly fill it in over the next few weeks.

Randy@ the Tower, so nice to see you here. Don't let Goldhunter off the hook (smile). I'm coming in with my best shot a little further down the road. You may have to hold him while I swing, he's a hard one to pin down? (big smile) Come on Goldhunter, it's only money (bigger smile)!

Cavan Man, Mr. Gresham, Auspec,,,,,, I'll try to infill against your comments. Perhaps tomorrow?

Nice discussions and reporting Black Blade,,,,ORO,,, everyone!

Thanks all
Trail Guide

Yes, Cavan Man, "black gold" may be abundant yet TG's message remain intact. That is in fact my read on what is transpiring, mainly from watching what THEY do as opposed to what they say. However the question is too big not to be asked and answered. The answer is unlikely to change my life to much degree, but there is something within me that earnestly seeks explanation as to the "reality" we exist within. Truth won't long remain in the background even if we decide to ignore it for a while as I attempted years ago. These particular truths have almost nothing to do with our eternal destinations, most fortunately. I still want to know more of who the powers are and their modus operandi, even though am also aware of what happens to the curious cat. Cannot help but admire those who risk so much for life's important principles, the Bill Murphys, Chris, Reg Howe and others. These guys have it all on the line and know it full well.
May I share with you one of my life's most profound lessons? Thank you. Probably 12-14 years ago I saw a survey of 70-80 year old folks whom they asked what they most regretted about their lives in general. These savvy elders uniformly answered that they felt they really had not lived their lives to the fullest, they took no chances, and played everything too close to the vest. They never really allowed themselves to develop into whom they could have been- were intended to be. I vowed not to, one day, be 75 years old, and having lived a life of relative safety, regret never fully living. A lot of this human experience is knowledge, spiritual, political, economical, whatever. The phrase- when the pupil is ready the teacher will appear may be applicable here, thus my questions to TG. If he is not the teacher the quest will continue a while longer.
Your message was great about being unemployed in the morning until you get crackin. Yes, they do require a functional serfdom, but they do prefer you not be too nosey!
Oh well, best to you.

Yes, Cavan Man, "black gold" may be abundant yet TG's message remain intact. That is in fact my read on what is transpiring, mainly from watching what THEY do as opposed to what they say. However the question is too big not to be asked and answered. The answer is unlikely to change my life to much degree, but there is something within me that earnestly seeks explanation as to the "reality" we exist within. Truth won't long remain in the background even if we decide to ignore it for a while as I attempted years ago. These particular truths have almost nothing to do with our eternal destinations, most fortunately. I still want to know more of who the powers are and their modus operandi, even though am also aware of what happens to the curious cat. Cannot help but admire those who risk so much for life's important principles, the Bill Murphys, Chris, Reg Howe and others. These guys have it all on the line and know it full well.
May I share with you one of my life's most profound lessons? Thank you. Probably 12-14 years ago I saw a survey of 70-80 year old folks whom they asked what they most regretted about their lives in general. These savvy elders uniformly answered that they felt they really had not lived their lives to the fullest, they took no chances, and played everything too close to the vest. They never really allowed themselves to develop into whom they could have been- were intended to be. I vowed not to, one day, be 75 years old, and having lived a life of relative safety, regret never fully living. A lot of this human experience is knowledge, spiritual, political, economical, whatever. The phrase- when the pupil is ready the teacher will appear may be applicable here, thus my questions to TG. If he is not the teacher the quest will continue a while longer.
Your message was great about being unemployed in the morning until you get crackin. Yes, they do require a functional serfdom, but they do prefer you not be too nosey!
Oh well, best to you.

forwards,futures swaps,etc are TOOLS! They are sophisticated instuments to be played by those who understand the underlying risk/reward ratio. Period. anyone else who ventures to play will win by dumb luck ONLY!!!
It is excedingly difficult to profit, rigged market or not,and 90% of the players are NOT savvy enough.
If you do not fully understand then please DO NOT COMMENT, otherwise it's merely your OPINION!!! This is in NO way a denial that the COMEX/NYMEX fu##$kers need to be hammered into the groud. This is obvious. But just because YOU CAN'T doesn't mean I CAN'T. View Yesterday's Discussion.

mhchuck ms#42693
Very nice post. For me the enormity of the financial problem facing not only the USA but the rest of the world is virtually impossible to comprehend. After spending a life time of working in various physical trades, I can truthfully testify to the fact that satisfaction with the material rewards seldom matches the satisfaction achieved in craftsmanship. In a nutshell,I have never been rolling in money.
Thus, even after again being bludgeoned with the numbers, it is still impossible for me to to really appreciate the magnitude of a billion and certainly a trillion of anything.
While some on the forum see the Euro waiting in the wings to dethrone the dollar, I don't see it happening.I see the decline of the dollar crippling not only every existing currency including the Euro, but every existing government.
In my view, a currency is nothing more than a reprentation of wealth. The wealth created in every nation on the globe by virtue of the strength and stability of the dollar is not going to vanish, but rather represents the potential backing for an entirely new world currency.
Each US dollar represents title to a small part of every form of wealth now existing in the USA. Because the nation proper is its backing, gold is no longer required.
Although it may require many more of them now or in the future than it did in the past to purchase The Radio City Music Hall as an example, so long as a person anywhere in the world may purchase it by acquiring enough of our currency to satisfy the purchase price, the dollar will continue to be considered as good as gold.
Apply this principle to a world currency backed by wealth regardless of where it is located and that same principle will apply.
Being a simple guy with a limited education, I have in all probability, over looked some major reasons why it won't work, if so I am certain that it will pointed out to me. However, at the present it seems as likely a scenario as any.


Still Perplexed

Firstly, Great to see you back FOA. Trusting all is well with you and yours?
OK, for those of you following these updates, Yes, BOTH of you, you'll recall last week (thurs) after "rotten" Nett foreign Debt figures were announced The Heamophiliac Aussie Dollar was Lying there, soft underbelly exposed, and I fully expected the Buzzards to swoop and as a secondary consequence, the beginnings of the "real" Gold BULL.
WELL! lo and behold, right on cue the Forex markets found favour with the bleeder, and largely American "interests" ramped it up to a tick under US$0.54. A 5% increase.
But the gnashing of teeth and wringing of palms doesn't stop here... Hell no! The blood sucking parasitic "interests" realise that to achieve the best benefit they keep this baby on it's last gasp, clinging to life in order to forestall margin calls on hedged Aussie Miners. Whats the good of a closed Mine in this climate.
All it will take is for some galoot hedge fund Cowboy or overzealous mutual funder to assess the real worth of the Aussie, short it to buggery and we're under US0.50.
Watch this space!
mhchuck:
Good thoughts. Long time no see?

Almost everyone in here is convinced that you can not "win the game" by going long in paper gold derivatives.

And this assumation is "set in stone", because of the way the evil gold shorts and carriers and the ESF have stomped on the price discovery mechanism, stomped it into the dirt, never to rise again. (Take note that I am referring to paper price derivatives, not physical gold)

And so if the paper price of gold is so most assuredly to stay down, and if we are so most assuredly to lose our hard earned dollars by going long gold paper, then....

Why not short the market? Sell calls, naked or covered?

Seems like a safe thing to do until the dam starts to crack.

Couldn't be abetter time to walk in the footsteps of those evil giants, who wield the power of the press, who seed the thoughts and deeds of the WGC, who print the FRNs, who pull the strings in the highest places. They are keeping the dollar game afoot by their actions, so dont expect any sudden rush for the exits, because war will be the next option, before they let go of their stranglehold grip of the reserve currency seniorage wealth apparatus.

It seems likely that they will squash gold with all their might, so as to keep the dollar in play. They will also squash the Euro with all their might for the same reason.

Before they give up, they will use the life blood of the common people, to start a war to protect their interests, a war financed by the taxes of little people, a war fought with the blood of the little people.

The shorts/FED/ESF/et al, have unlimited resources. Dont expect any catastrophes to upset the apple cart. TPTB have a lot of tricks up their sleeve.

Sorry to burst anyones bubble. I am not capitulating.

Its just that I feel there will be no major shifts in the price of gold, nor the power structure of the Western world, until all the cards have been dropped from their sleeves, until all the aces have been played, until all the options have been used up.

We have seen gold get sold from Kuwait, among others. Yes, they are positioning themselves. Yes, they are in trouble.

But will it end humbly? Will they just declare bankruptcy, and roll over? I hardly think so.

History has shown us that WAR is the last refuge of the desparate PTB, and this option has not been played to its best hand as yet.

My guess is that some media spin will birth a cause, from which the American people and the world just cant turn away their heads from, and the people will rage in indignation at some manufactured wrong that needs to be righted, and we will once again be pawns in a power struggle that benefits not the common people, but only TPTB, although it will be financed with the common folks tax dollars, and fought with the common folks blood.

Until that day, the paper price and maybe the physical price of gold will remain low, as it must for this age to continue. This is the corner that we are "painted into".

So until the WAR comes, gold will remain stagnant.

Any takers?

http://www.eurekalert.org/releases/tamu-ale120100.htmlmedical use Au

http://www.eurekalert.org/releases/tamu-ale120100.htmlWere they buying up huge sums of Au ?

Gold/genetic research

Mr. Gresham: I hope that you didn't extrapolate that the twist on Aesop's fable had anything to do with racist connotations. I found the story to be an interesting statement on US social policy, whether implicit or implied. Some may take it as a slap at "White Liberal Guilt", or others may even try to see it as a prejudicial view of white vs. minority. Perhaps the reference to Jesse Jackson was misleading. Personally I think that looking at the story in the context of a racial view of the US is quite a stretch. The story is simply an allegory that cuts across all racial and socioeconomic boundaries. How you come to such a ridiculous conclusion is beyond me.

The US is one huge contradiction in terms of social, political, and economic policy. We claim equality for all regardless, yet we condemn those who become successful. We also reward those who make no effort to better themselves. In the US, even the legal system is used as a form of lottery. If you sue and win, then you get the grand prize (though it is usually the scumbag lawyer who gets the biggest piece of the pie). For example, in a recent case, a woman had hot coffee spilt on her by a handicapped restaurant worker. She sued the restaurant because they hired a handicapped person � supposedly knowing that she could have spilled hot coffee on a patron. I probably should mention that if the restaurant had refused to employ the handicapped person for that very reason, then the restaurant would be liable under the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act). Of course the woman's husband sued because he has not had the privilege of having his sexual urges satisfied by his not mentally anguished and supposedly disabled wife. Hmmmm��.

Look at the political realities in the US. For example, just look at how the US media demonizes anyone who is not a wimpy suck-up Liberal drone. Special councilor Ken Starr was doing his job as mandated by LAW and ordered by A.G. Janet Reno when he investigated Bill and Hillery. He had to pursue the investigation regardless of where it led. Yet, the media drones and the Liberal elitists set out to demonize him and ruin his career. Currently the media drones and Liberal elitists are demonizing the Floriduh Secretary of State Katherine Harris for doing her job while obeying the LAW. Should these people violate the LAW to appease those who have no respect for the LAW? I'm not sure where you are from Mr. Gresham, but here in the US, we have gone from common sense to absolute absurdity.

Now, before you make anymore assumptions, let me state for the record - I am not a Liberal or Conservative. The story only reflects the world around us, particularly those of us in the US and maybe a few other formerly oppressed Brit colonies. I just observe the world around me, and "if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck", and then I'm pretty damn sure that it's a duck! BTW, yesterday morning I shot 2 mallards, 2 pintails, and one teal.

G'day BB,
Mate, with all that duck shootin you've been doing of late, there's either no Ducks left in them thar parts or you're a crook shot

"Okay let me see if I've got this straight, In order to be grounded I've got to be crazy. And I must be crazy to be flying, But if I ask to be grounded, that means I'm not crazy anymore and have to keep flying."

It is duck and goose season here. Since I put out a few $ for the license and bird stamps, I might as well take advantage of it and fill the freezer. I have ducks and geese all around me. I have mountain streams that empty into 3 small lakes about 100 yards from my front door, and several streams empty into the lowlands into stock ponds and streams below me on a large ranch. I have 2 large freezers filled with trout, chukar, duck, geese, cottontail, some venison and elk. I even have some buffalo steaks from a family member who bagged a bison in Utah last year. Last night I last orange glazed duck (cooked in a crock-pot with orange sauce, and then broiled), served over rice with Pi--on nuts. In fact, I'm heading out to nail a few more birds at sun up. Only 2 more months of hunting season. I don't have to purchase much from the supermarket. I even barter with a couple of neighbors (game for garden fresh veggies). Heck, I even brew some of my own beer (of variable quality), though I prefer Moose Drool and Anchor Steam Porter. I cross-country ski and snowshoe in the winter, rock-climb, mountain bike, and hike in the summer, hunt and fish whenever possible, and try to find time to work in between. I work at home when I can, though at times I have to travel abroad for some clients. Life is too short to be a couch potato. Besides, I have too much fun living life for all it's worth. I wonder what I'll do when I retire ;-)

You've completed something for me. Thank you very much!

Welcome back good friend.

"U.S. looks to allies as Iraq shuts oil production" 'Washington [Reuters] � The United States said Friday it is working with allies on possible moves, including the release of petroleum reserves and a surge in production by major oil producers, to make up for lost Iraqi oil exports. Iraq's oil exports ground to a halt Friday after Baghdad insisted that buyers of its crude pay a surcharge outside the terms of the United Nations oil-for-food program that allows it to sell about 2.3 million barrels of oil per day. The contraction in supply, if it drags on, could boost prices of crude and heating oil as winter takes hold in North America, a key issue for the White House which earlier this year tapped its strategic oil reserve to lower prices. "We are working with International Energy Agency members and major oil producers on an oil supply response which, if needed, would more than compensate for the oil volumes which Iraq is threatening to withdraw from the world market," U.S. National Security Council spokesman P.J. Crowley told Reuters. "This would include drawdowns from strategic petroleum stocks as appropriate," Crowley added. Asked if he was referring to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as well as other oil stockpiles, the spokesman replied: "Yes." The Paris-based International Energy Agency controls emergency oil inventories held among 24 member countries. U.S. officials said they were prepared to act quickly in concert with the IEA or major oil producing nations if need be, though noted that world oil prices have not jumped dramatically so far on news of the halt in Iraqi oil exports. "This is basically meant to say we're ready," said a senior U.S. official who asked not to be named. "All we have at this point is a political statement by the Iraqis. It will be some time before this suspension is actually felt in terms of oil supplies," said a second senior U.S. official who asked not to be identified. "Obviously, we are and will continue to assess whether and at what point we need to act in response to what Iraq has done today," the second official added. Shippers said there had been no oil loaded at Iraq's Turkish outlet of Ceyhan or the Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr since late on Thursday. Iraq sells about 2.3 million barrels a day under the United Nation's humanitarian exchange, 5 per cent of world oil trade, and traders said a lengthy outage could put fresh pressure under high oil prices. The UN oil-for-food program allows Iraq to escape Gulf War-era sanctions imposed on Baghdad. The White House suggested that Iraq's moves would not help its case within the United Nations. "Iraq's suspension of oil exports is an attempt to coerce the international community," said Mr. Crowley. "We cannot accept Iraq's use of oil as a political weapon. Iraq [should not] believe that a cessation of oil exports will gain it any leverage within the United Nations."

Black Blade: First, OPEC said that it was more likely to cut production in January. Second, OPEC does not have any excess capacity at this point. Third, once the SPR and other oil reserves are drawn down, then what? If the oil producers get on the ball and really push it, they just might be able to squeeze more oil. The cheap stuff is depleting at a rapid rate. This week, a report showed that the Alaskan oil out of Prudhoe Bay is in a serious state of decline. From a rate of 2 million BBL/day to about 800,000 bbl/day now. They had better start getting a jump on the ANWR exploration program soon, and maybe even some nitrogen gas injection into the Prudhoe Bay field. There is plenty of other oil, but it is not the cheap oil that Hydro-Carbon Man is used too. Higher prices are likely to be here to stay with perhaps some temporary dips, but once reality sets it � look out!

Oh wad some power the gift to gi�e us,
To see ourselves as others see us
It wad frae many a wrong turn free us,
Ai, an� foolish notion.
(Robert Burns)

(I have changed some of the dialect to make it better understood by nonScots.)

This can be applied to individuals, or nations.


To those of you who take the trouble to read the following, I hope you will understand my reasons for its posting. It may seem, on the surface to be somewhat remote from the chore issue for which this facility has been, generously afforded by Michael Kosares. But, as has been observed by a number of you, there are growing concerns about recent, and not so recent, market and political developments that lead to an assumption that things are not all what they seem. There is great justification for this. And, as I will reinforce again later, I believe our biggest mistake is to allow ourseleves to be conditioned into not seeing the interrelationship.

We are also, in our spontaneous emotional reactions, sometimes obliged to make generalisations, or inferences that were not intended to offend, or mislead, but sometimes do. I can honestly say that I feel the standard of contribution within these columns is high,, and that most of you (I don't recall a particular exception), speak from the heart, with no malice to anyone, except, perhaps, should there be any �conspirators� out there reading this, to them.

I would love to research the background of this, so called, Canadian. However, as I have not the time, I would like to raise a few comments. Where do you think the USA, and most of the rest of the world would be had Britain gone down with the rest of Europe? Germany had rockets long before the United States, and would not have been long before developing a war-head of great devastation. We in Britain know how devastating were the ones she had to start of with. If you think they could never have reached the US eventually, you again delude yourselves. Yet we were left alone for a long time,while the US grew rich. Comments from eminent Americans at the time were such as �"England will get her neck wrung like a chicken".

For the �begged for� help we got before, and even after, America was forced into the war, find out what America got in return � access into strategic areas of the commonwealth of nations Britain built, which is so often derided by America. America gave nothing without getting something of value in return.

Britain has got herself disliked and attacked many times for siding with the US, recently (Bosnia, Gulf War, and Israel/Palestine, in much of its �shaky�, one sided, foreign policy.

As for Britain not being able to pay its interest on its borrowings � to coin an Americanism � phooey! Learn the facts.

America via Hollywood's propaganda dressed as entertainment, which is dished out to the world, continually rewrites history to her own best advantage. To recount all the individual cases, would be far too time and space consuming. However, take one recent one about the US navy who captured the �Enigma� machine from a German U-boat � the British achieved this without any outside help. We, and the relatives of the British naval officer who sank that U-boat, are still smarting from this blow to the guts, from a so called �friendly nation�. Oh, and neither Steve McQueen, nor any other American was involved in �The Great Escape�, nor Colditz ( a new, to be released, movie) People, unfortunately, believe this crap. It has now become a well known clich� in Britain that Hollywood, gives the �baddies� British accents which is especially noticeable with the new owners of Disney , where the original story's British hero is replaced with an American accent and the British accent reserved for some �evil� character. Coincidence? Sorry, happens far too often for that.

Black slavery was abolished in.� backward, exploitative� Britain and her Commonwealth (including Canada) over a century before the USA. The American native Indians received far better, humane, treatment from the British than they did from the Americans, that is why so many fled over the border into Canada. And here is one thing that gets overlooked in American history. To get many American colonists to fight against the British they were promised many things such as large tracts of prime land; after victory � most of them got �shafted� (short changed) NOT by the British, when they, later, went to claim their rights.

American dominated media continually condemns China for Tiannamen, yet overlooks Wacko, and the gunning down of students on campus at Kent university. When you point a finger, America, as you so often do, there are always three pointing back. The US has a mere 5% of the world's population, yet it has 25% of the world's incarcerated. Not exactly a role model to follow. Yet, she wishes to be accepted so.

Now I am anything but �ant-American, or anti any other nation, or religion. I have said in my postings that in all my travels, and living in other countries I have found people of all races, creeds and colours to have �red blood� and bleed when they are cut. We all have the same hopes and aspirations in life, and we all want to be respected, loved, and free.

What I am challenging here is that it is not America who is misunderstood. It is America who often creates the misunderstanding of others, and gets their back up.

None of us, individually, or nationally, are pure, nor are we totally tainted. Ancient Britain was conquered and occupied by the Romans for 400 years. The Romans, like all conquerors took, and they gave. We improved our judicial, and administrative system, our roads, and buildings � though much was lost for years after they left. While in principle colonisation is wrong, here again, Britain took, and it gave. Most of those ex-colonies are now amongst the world's better-administered nations. Only the tiny minority who threw out the baby with the bath water are exceptions.

From many postings, which are increasing daily in this and other sites, and now also being voiced by respected, and informed people throughout the world, there is obviously something �going on� deep in the inner sanctums that is over-ruling normal market forces. The world is being manoeuvred along a very dangerous path in a very internationally coordinated way that I somehow feel will affect, adversely, the very thing that so many have died for in the past � FREEDOM.

We hear so often this word conspiracy, sometimes it refers to a particular incident, and at others to something more encompassing. I do not like the word. Words have connotations that distort our ability to comprehend and accept. To many, (including me, I confess) conspiracy probably creates the vision of a group of men sitting around a barrel in a darkened room lit only by candle. You see, in British history, we have the notorious Guy Fawkes (he who would blow up parliament) conspiracy, which we had fed to us in childhood and whose death we celebrate each year by burning his effigy on a bonfire and letting off fireworks.

I have come to believe that perhaps the greatest �conspiracy� is the one to debunk conspiracy theories. This is achieved very simply; you make �serious� comedy films about them. Or you take an important tragic event and create many red herrings and claimed �exposed� explanations that �prove� conspiracy; then later reveal their obvious weaknesses.

This permits the real �deception, and its purpose� to remain concealed.

Control a nation's money supply and you control its economy and, consequently, that nation. You can extend this down to the individual. Paper, or electronic currency, allows this to happen � hence the break with the PM's.

To those of you who are �perplexed� � observe � the truth of what is happening is �out there�. Notice that the Euro is hovering around parity with the dollar. More nations are joining the EU and monitory union, slowly but surely. China, via Hong Kong has the dollar in parity with the US. More and more nations of South America are adopting the dollar.

An Asian trade block is being set up. No doubt this will later adopt a one for all currency in the Yuan. Yuan is Chinese for dollar. Three blocks separated, yet united by a common currency (though named differently � like the many large high street stores which retain their original names but are owned by one entity.

Would this mean that America would control the world? No. But the, un-elected, people who control the US will.

Much of what is happening today was foreseen by an American writer more than a century ago, his book has never been recommended reading, I don't think, in the education system, and I have seen no reference to it in the media. I picked it up marked-down in a Taiwan bookshop a few years ago. It is called "Looking Backward" you will understand the title should you decide to read it. The author is Edward Bellamy. Remember, if you do read it, it was first published in the America of 1888. Not all he foresees has yet come to pass, nor will, perhaps, ever as it is too idealistic, but he does foresee, among others, �electronic� currency, the Malls, and the three trading blocks of Asia, Europe and America.

Once again, I hope I have not offended anyone, It was not intended. Forgive me if it appears that I initially, appeared to have strayed from the path. But in this ever changing, perplexing world, so much is inter related. Our greatest mistake could well be that we have allowed ourselves to see things in small daubs. We do not step back from the canvas and view the complete picture and how it is made up from small daubs.

Sir Journeyman @ 42539 states - "�all this talk of a weakening dollar, repatriation, current accounts deficits, etc., lead me to believe the move to bring the 'strong dollar' down is afoot. Such a move wouldn't have to include US PTB -- maybe FOA's group?? -- but I have an intuition that it DOES and that Sec. Of Treasury, Larry Summers, despite his recent statements (they regularly lie just before such moves) is involved. This is an intuition only."

Sir JBear @ # 42544 stated, "No I personally do not think there is a conspiracy to bring down the dollar. The results of a lower dollar are likely to accelerate to an even lower dollar and all sorts of problems. Note, the US is already NOT exporting many goods, and it is my belief that this is not so much from the high dollar as the inability of many countries (consumers) to purchase at any price, so I wouldn't think that US exports would appreciate nearly as much as might be indicated by a lower dollar�If there is a conspiracy, it is to keep the dollar up, not bring it down."

My Comments:

The prospects of a conspiracy to bring the dollar down on the one hand and a conspiracy to keep the dollar up on the other hand are not mutually exclusive for two reasons. First it must be admitted that the possibility of two conflicting conspiracies between warring power centers can be in progress at the same time. Secondly it is possible for a single power center to be involved in a single conspiracy to first push the dollar up and hold it there as long as necessary with the full intention of forcing it down into oblivion when the opportunity arises. Such a power does not require loyalty to any country. Such a power would of necessity have to be formidable. Such a power would require intellectual, political, and monetary resources necessary to pull off such a feat. The intellectual resources would involve the knowledge of the necessity of a replacement for the US$ as a reserve currency. The political resources would entail the tacit cooperation of the significant governments involved to pull such a plan off. The monetary resources would of necessity be provided by the central banks of the significant governments involved. Make no mistake about it - if such a conspiracy is in place, and I believe one is, the conspirators are G-7 nations who can pull any and all other nations in tow. The so-called US citizens involved are simply traitors. The non-US citizens involved cannot be blamed, as the US hegemony has, no doubt, been unbearable to them.

It would be nice if ANOTHER were wrong. We must brace ourselves for the strong possibility that
ANOTHER is right.

In regards to the trade deficit I firmly believe that the real problem is not so much one of a strong dollar as it is the willingness of the US to create enough fiat to not only satisfy the international reserve requirements and prop up the equity markets but also to provide the debt money required to allow the US citizenry to absorb all of the poor quality goods and services produced which do not meet the quality requirements vs. price of the international buyer. Very simply put we do not produce goods and services in the US which are desireable enough to the international community for them to pay the same price that US citizens are willing to pay with the easily accessed US dollars through the nearly unlimited credit provided by the US central bank in collusion with the US Treasury Department. The worm is beginning to turn as we speak. The tightening of the Fed for the last year is beginning to eliminate the demand required to absorb the so called "highly productive" US economy. This fall off in consumer demand being forced by the Fed was to long in coming and a soft landing is impossible at this point. The landing can be postponed for a relatively short period by massive further infussions of fiat by the Fed but the landing will come and when it comes it will be hard. It is the temperature inversion "thingy" in conjunction with nstability in almost every area of the international environment.

HBM

justamereBear @ # 42666 says: �"my concern is that if we get some form of upheaval that the rapidly changing conditions will promote some pretty irrational thinking, which in turn will create more tension� trade can be accomplished without a medium of exchange, but it is easier using a common medium of exchange. Personally, I feel strongly that I want to be in a position to accomplish trade if some form of meltdown occurs. Anything I can accomplish now when more or less rational thinking is the order of the day, I want to do. No one can know how the future will play out, but we can speculate, and I do. I can't tell how well my plans will work out, but they undoubtedly will be better than no plans. One of my contingency plans involves precious metals, much like everyone else here. Some others are into Real Estate, which I am not AT THIS TIME. Liquidity and flexibility are the order of the day, IMHO."

My comments:

I concur however I would like to expand just a bit on what you have said if for no other reason but to make it clear that the mention of real estate in the right context is not necessarily bad in times of upheaval. I would like to talk a bit about a partial exit strategy from metals which would make sense if the window of opportunity presents itself.

I will repeat an edited version of my previous post # 32041 dated June 6, 2000 in order to head off any presumptions that I do not consider it appropriate to hold some gold on a permanent basis as a safe haven. My post as abbreviated follows:

'Gold as a safe haven: By this we mean that gold is the haven and that which is harbored there is wealth. The purpose of the haven is that of long-term protection from those forces which would destroy the wealth. Of course if the haven can be destroyed then that which is harbored, the wealth, would be destroyed simultaneously with the destruction of the haven.

Gold is, in this case, the safe haven. Its value as a haven is its indestructibility; ie the intrinsic value does not diminish one iota. One ounce of gold is one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold.

The value of the harbored wealth in terms of fiat prices is determined only twice--1st at the time the wealth moved from fiat to the physical haven, 2nd at the time when the wealth is moved out of the physical haven and back into fiat paper. All speculations as to changes in the value of the wealth stored, (between these two points in time) are meaningless. All that matters are the two points in time when the wealth enters the haven and when it leaves the haven. To move my wealth from the physical haven at this time is anathema to me; however I can only speak for myself. It pleases me that I am the only one who can make the choice concerning the location of my wealth.' HBM

End of repost_______________

Sir JBear, I as you am not in real estate at this time. I see no problem with holding real estate in the form of a personal home and shelter at this time as long as the investment happens to be debt free. Real estate in general is at nose bleed price levels at this time and if I were to own any of it free and clear I would sell high and move that debt free wealth in to the precious physical stuff. At the present I have a large percentage of my wealth stored in physical PM's due to the simple fact this is the second time in my life when it has made complete sense. The first time was in the mid 70's - early 80's. I was young and ignorant. I had everything in real estate leveraged to the hilt. It goes without saying that I was forced to sell low and start over again at the age of 34. I may make a mistake but I will not make that particular mistake again. I plan a partial exit from PM's should the opportunity present itself and, should that opportunity arrive, I have no doubt that a small amount of PM will purchase a huge amount real estate. When my gold leaves the safe harbor and enters into fiat it will be in fiat only a day or so as the fiat will be used only to facilitate the exchange.

Provision will be made for non-parishable and durable consumables is being made in advance. If for some reason I am not able to make the partial exit due to a break down in trade prior exit, I should be able to get by with a considerable hoard of circulated pre-64 silver coins.

Sir JBear, you are absolutely correct. We are I think on the same page. "Liquidity and flexibility are the order of the day."

HBM

Gold as an investment Re Canadian Loony.

Gold Coins--- You can purchase a Year 2000 gold Coin at the Canadian mint for $999.99 called the Pacific Dogwood--- the face value of the coin is $350.00 --- The weight of the coin is 38.05 grams. That's Trudeau Measure so we'll stay clear of that one.

You can purchase a 1 Ounce maple leaf gold coin for $281.10 US. In Loony money it would cost you $434.13 per coin based on the present market gold price of $266.45 US per ounce. You can also purchase 1 ounce gold bars at $433.12 Canadian.

God It's great to be a frigin Canadian, the greatest country in the world if you believe Chretienstine --- We have to damn near pay twice what the Yankee pays for an ounce of bloody gold bullion, plus everything else for that matter.

So lets explore for argument--- say you purchase 100 1 oz gold bars @ a cost of $43,312.00 Canadian as an investment ---- You store them in a safety deposit box and the Canadian Loony rises to 75 cents US and the price of gold is still $266.45 an Ounce US. --- The value of your gold in the deposit box just dropped to $41,632.81 ---

Lard Jasus Chretch am I right??? If the Firkin Loony gains in Value and gold remains stagnant I loose - --- So Jasus If our dollar gains in value to be on par with the US Dollar, My gold in the bank would be worth $26,645.00 US or Canadian--- Where in the Hell did my other $16,667.00 go???? Correct me if I'm wrong.

In other words, if the Canadian dollar rises to par with the US Buck the price of gold would nearly have to double for me to break even.

Signify by 2 stomps of your foot if you agree---

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. You said "Control a nation's money supply and you control its economy and, consequently, that nation."

It looks like it is the world's money supply that is being controlled, via the $U.S. and thus the world that will be controlled. I don't believe this would be possible if currencies were backed by hard assets. Curious that all currencies are fiat. That the IMF demands that no currencies may be backed by gold.

On the brighter side, if it makes you feel any better, the movie U-571 did acknowledge Britain as the first to get the Enigma in the credits after the movie.


And now for some local news from "The Triangle" the area between Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill in North Carolina:

<
A steep increase in the price of natural gas could force some Triangle manufacturers to cut back production.

"You've got some companies that are barely breaking even, and then they open their mail and see their gas bills," said Jerry Roberts, executive director of the Carolina Utility Customers Association, which represents 63 of North Carolina's largest manufacturers before the state's Utilities Commission. "They may not be left with much choice [but to cut production]."

Natural-gas prices surged to a 10-year high this week because of a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. gas inventories. Natural gas for January delivery rose 1.3 percent Friday to a record 66.7 cents per therm on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

North Carolina's gas companies, which have raised rates four times this year, probably will seek another increase next month, said Gene Curtis, director of the gas division of the N.C. Utilities Commission.

"If natural gas is your primary source of energy, then this winter is getting pretty brutal," Curtis said.

Just ask Richard Parr, manager of Cargill Inc.'s 70-person food-processing plant in Raleigh, which uses natural gas to fuel huge steam boilers that extract oil from soybeans.

Parr calculates that the Raleigh plant is paying three times more for natural gas than it did a year earlier, pushing up the plant's monthly operating costs by 15 percent. Although the plant is still making a profit, the high natural-gas prices don't leave the plant with much room to maneuver; just a slight increase in soybean prices could make the plant unprofitable, Parr said.

As a result, Cargill may be forced to curb production at the facility, which now operates around the clock seven days a week. Eliminating one shift is an option, Parr said.

"Look, if it gets to the point where we can't make a profit, then we will examine ways to reduce costs," Parr said. "Cutting production is certainly one option."

In the past, some manufacturers have responded to high natural-gas prices by switching to oil. But the wholesale price for heating oil increased 54 percent to $1.04 per gallon in November from 67.5 cents per gallon during November 1999. "When prices [between heating oil and natural gas] are this close, substitution no longer makes sense," Curtis said.

The Triangle Brick Co., which operates a 200-person factory in Raleigh, is a prime example.

The plant fuels its brick-making ovens, which reach temperatures of more than 2,000 degrees, with gas. The company considered switching to heating oil but decided the prices were too similar, said Richard Mollenkopf, vice president and chief financial officer.

"Either way -- gas or oil -- we're getting burned," Mollenkopf said.

Triangle Brick is trying to negotiate lower natural-gas rates with PSNC Energy, the Triangle's largest provider of natural gas. But Mollenkopf isn't optimistic. PSNC Energy has raised its natural-gas rates four times this year.

Unless rates come down, Triangle Brick may have to shut off its ovens during the last week of December to cut costs, he said. "We'll try to keep the ovens fired as long as we can," Mollenkopf said.

Morton Metalcraft of Raleigh has been scouring for ways to reduce its natural-gas bills, which have doubled in the past year. The company depends on natural gas to fuel huge, 450-foot ovens that dry and seal metal parts produced for John Deere and Caterpillar.

Bud Rehl, manager of manufacturing operations at Morton, got excited when he began describing a new kind of paint that dries at a lower temperature. "With [natural-gas] prices this high, even small changes can make a big difference," Rehl said.

The record gas prices also are hitting home in the Triangle, where PSNC has about 200,000 customers who are paying 25 percent more for gas this year than they did in 1999. This year's increases, which included a 4 percent jump in October, will add $15 to the average monthly bill for residential customers.>>

What makes you think the loonie will rise so significantly against the US$?

Please recall that the US$ has raged against most currencies around the world while the 'loonie' has (more or less) stayed at par (approx. 64-69 cents) during this so why will the loonie suddenly break trend and watch the USD fall?

Canuck

The human mind is an incredible vehicle. Each of us struggle daily to "make sense" of the world. In doing so, we accept those occurrences and observations that are consistent with our view of the world, and we reject those that are found to be inconsistent. In so doing, we instantly establish limitations to our perceptual boundaries. It is said that we actively use only a small fraction of our brain's capacity. Could it possibly be that this is a self inflicted condition? To the extent that we find our perception of the world agrees with that of others around us we consider ourselves either sane or questionable. When large groups of individuals adopt a similar perception of the world, these individual measures of sanity take on a larger than self quality. They become a paradigm (if you will)� a defacto standard of interacting with the world that is, within a small circle of friends, "the way things are". This is known as the "age of reason". It is an age where the presumption of cause and effect is paramount. The establishment of this paradigm is a process that entails a great deal of judgement�of comparing this or that to the local "standard of behavior". The maintenance of such a standard is often accompanied by a preponderance of prejudice. In the "age of reason" judgement and prejudice are a way of life.

We establish rule of law and government to delineate and protect the boundaries of our reality. We imbue this governance with broad powers of enforcement. That which is not consistent with the "common belief" is not acceptable. Individuals exhibiting behavioral inconsistencies are at best criticized or ignored, and at worst pilloried or incarcerated. We imbue the governance with our noblest of intentions, charity and help for those misfortunate enough to be outside the confines of our collective paradigm. By the act of empowerment of the governance with responsibility for the well being of all, we displace from the individual the spiritual benefit gained in the act of giving and charity and we absolve ourselves from the responsibility for the well being of others. We have been absolved from the responsibility to ask "who are we to judge?" for the paradigm will take all such matters into consideration and the system will render a verdict. In the age of reason, we have also been absolved of the responsibility to ask "who are we to give"? Once we adopt such a paradigm, we eliminate something very important from our lives. Freedom. Freedom to think and believe as we see fit within ourselves. Freedom to grow spiritually.

What has all this got to do with matters of the spirit? I am struck today by a paradox of sorts. In a spiritual sense, judgement and its paradigmatic extension, prejudice, are at one extreme end of our spiritual being, while giving and its own extension, forgiving, are at the other extreme. Who are we to judge the actions of another when our minds are locked into such a limited perspective of the world? On the other hand, the answer to the question "Who are we to give?" seems quite clear. It is in giving that we define our spiritual selves. Is the act of giving opening oneself to the possibility that there is yet another paradigm which does not have basis in reason�is exempt from the tenants of cause and effect? Do we fear departure from our paradigm so much that we are willing to forgo the rigors of spiritual growth? Is it possible that giving without measure, gives in return more than the value bestowed? Giving is as necessary to our spiritual health as judgement is crucial to our "mental" health in the age of reason. It occurs to me that from a spiritual sense we can no more accept judgement and prejudice than we can ask for forgiveness. What power can absolve us of our transgressions as if they had never occurred? The answer is none. We can only receive forgiveness by earning it. What toil can earn such a reward? Overcoming the resistance within the self to forgive others for their transgressions. When the Lord 's prayer was revealed to us it contained this answer. "�and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us."

It is our own minds that torture us with concepts such as guilt, remorse, sorrow and torment. Is it possible that there is another paradigm that is not burdened by such afflictions? A world that is not Hell on earth? A world where only current actions have impact and intent is the soul measure of worth of such action? Those who know the answer to this question roam the world with inappropriate smiles. They are outside the age of reason. They are unexplainably happy. They are free.

watch them dump u.s. steel.

@ Rockgrabber,

Thanks for the notes on the Iraqi situation.

@ Cavan Man,

How are you sir? Interesting question; to what does this pertain?

The family took a trip 'out east' this summer, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. I am from Ottawa and since it was my first trip east I cannot say that I am up on my geography (in that area).

However, during the Nova Scotia tour the family checked out the Bay of Fundy from a southwestern viewpoint. The Bay of Fundy is a small narrow body of water that separates N.S. from N.B. to the north (generally speaking) and as one southwest along the western shore of Nova Scotia you come closer and closer to Maine. My understanding is that the is a ferry from both Portland and Bar Harbor (Maine) to Yarmouth, Nova Scotia.

Hold the line....accessing map/atlas.

Ahh, yes; Yarmouth is at the most southwestern tip of Nova Scotia perhaps 200 miles from Portland and 150 miles to Bar Habor. I have heard that a six hour ferry trip takes you from Portland to Yarmouth, N.S. At the most northeastern tip of Maine to the most southwestern tip of N.S. spans a mere 50 miles, looking at the town of Cutler, Maine to Little River, N.S.

Planning a 'cross-Atlantic' swim C.M.? (smile)

http://www.newsmax.com/showinsidecover.shtml?a=2000/12/2/233130
With Carl Limbacher and NewsMax.com Staff

Sunday Dec. 3, 2000; 12:33 AM ET
------------
Meanwhile, on Saturday's New York Times op-ed
page, New York University Law Professor Stephen
Gillers argued that Clinton should remain
president past January 20 while Bush and Gore
fight it out.

"It's right there in the 20th Amendment to the
Constitution, passed in 1933," explained
Gillers.

"On Jan. 6, Congress is supposed to count the
electoral votes and pick a president. But if, in
the language of the amendment, it decides that
no one has yet 'qualified' for the job, it can
pass a law 'declaring who shall then act as
President....until a President or Vice President
shall have qualified.'

"Surely," said Gillers, "Bill Clinton would be
willing to stay on for a few weeks."

> The US has a mere 5% of the world?s population, yet it
> has 25% of the world?s incarcerated.

Yes, the US has produced a society that does this. Generally, the incarcerated, those who dare to rebel, often in open defiance, are people with a sense of justice that predates the present era. That is the opinion I formed after spending much time working closely as a volunteer with many maximum security inmates.

It is possible that the US prison system serves the establishment very well as a pressure relief valve. The inmates, generally male, are typically physically strong, strong willed, bold, not easily intimidated, willing to take risks, etc. Many of the inmates' positive character traits are presently devalued in US society. Even if they commit no crime, they are not just unneeded, they are seen as painfully embarrassing nuisances.

In the US, much is not what it seems, and people who refuse to go with the flow become problems. Gold owners may be seen in the same light. One can put himself in a disadvantaged position if he continually behaves as if he truly expects others to act according to high ideals. Has it ever been otherwise? Let us take note of the TOCOM/Palladium market official rules changes recently described here in this forum, the Hunt sliver market debacle, and predictions that paper gold will become worthless. Unjust? Well, what are you willing to do about it? Careful, many actions will get you incarcerated, and don't expect a lot of help.

Surrender your gold? What else will you surrender? Maybe some powerful people will find that out. It appears that debtor's prison has become a reality in the US for some who do not pay child support, and it is likely that debtor's prison soon will become a reality for others too.

I expect that all societies throughout history have produced men like many of those we presently incarcerate here in the US. They are troublesome, to say the least. I also expect its likely that this type of man was previously used (expended) in revolutions, war campaigns, conquering the wilderness, that kind of thing.

Parsifal

Hey, this posting glitch is great! Everytime I say something nasty or OT, it hangs my browser window and won't post it!

Black Blade: Love ya, bro! I told our quackers to stay close to the pond this winter.

No, am I being paranoid, or does anyone else wonder: TrailGuide back, site troubles. (Hey, didn't he leave right before all those election glitches? (smile)

http://www.gopfun.com/index.htmBut it works fine when I post stuff like this!

Peter Asher, your msg#: 42789...scarey, isn't it?

According to the XX amendment, Section 1. states: "The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January..."

This being the case, I would expect it is up to Congress to name the successor. The only thing that could keep Clinton in office, perhaps, would be some extenuating circumstances, i.e. Executive Order, or national emergency, for this not to be the case. Not out of the question though...some international event or, some internal event, as I've mentioned before, failure of the PPT to intervene in the stock market. If there was true panic and chaos in the markets, the majority of people in this country would be too concerned and caught up in their fear of losing "everything" to be concerned about one more "slight of hand" from Slick Willy. I really hope I'm wrong.


Henri, thanks for your msg#: 42786. You said, "It is our own minds that torture us with concepts such as guilt, remorse, sorrow and torment. Is it possible that there is another paradigm that is not burdened by such afflictions? A world that is not Hell on earth? A world where only current actions have impact and intent is the soul measure of worth of such action?"

Reminds me of the saying "Life on earth is as close to Hell as the true Christian ever gets...and as close to Heaven as the non-believer ever gets".


I realized earlier that in my eagerness to jump back into the discussion, I was remiss in not thanking those who expressed their condolences to me and my family on the recent loss of my father-in-law.

Many thanks to you for caring.

www.keepclinton.comJust found this link today. Excuse me while I go barf!

Something big is lurking and it's not Santa!I think Java Man summed up your msg#: 42789 with the words ..."scary, isn't it? "
Let's hope and pray that does not happen. I feel that something big is lurking and it's not Santa.
Too many things going on and gold just sits there.
Maybe tonight we will see gold start its move up.
I'm off to plant some sugar snap peas and check my hens.

Did you get my re-e-mail?

$hifty

Henri:

"What power can absolve us of our transgressions as if they never occured.The answer is none"

And then you go on to say we earn it by forgiving others.

I think you are close to the Truth Henri.But think about the thief dying on the cross next to Christ. He had no opportunity to forgive others for his life was over. In fact, it seems to me all he did was recognize and be sorry for his own sinfulness and see that the Lord was an innocent man. And he asked to be remembered, and he was.

No doctrine of the Trinity,no going to Church,nothing but sincere repentenace and asking Christ to rember him when he came into his kingdom.

"For it is impossible for the blood of bulls and goats to take away sins.......And it is by Gods will that we have been sanctified through the offering of the body of Jesus Christ once and for all. " That is the power that can absolve us of our sins as if they never occured.

That being said,you are right about forgiving others.The parable of the wicked servant makes it clear that if we are not patient,long-suffering,non-resentful and loving toward those who tresspass against us, we will not be forgiven.

"If ye do not forgive men their tresspasses against you,neither will my Father in heaven forgive you your tresspasses."

And that, I submit, is more important than all the Gold that ever was or ever will be.

You have just amazed me....thank you.

It is amazing how, sometimes, glaring errors are not spotted until after we post our messages. I did, of course, mean 'core' issue and not 'chore' issue.

Sharing with you, and especially on this vibrant topic of common interest could never be a 'chore'. Although I am sure, from the standard of intelligence that is evident from your contributions, my meaning would have been understood, I apologise.

I hope that one day Microsoft will come up with a means of spotting these errors of syntax, and semantics and the like as it does spelling and general grammar.

While I have not the expertise to participate in the debates that occasionally rage regarding the merits of paper vs physical gold, I rely on my instincts in such matters, and sleep well.

I don't know for sure if the lifetime of the $U.S. dollar is drawing to an end or not but I feel it is wise to insure against such eventuality.

I don't know what the nth horseman will be or what event will plunge the current state of affairs into irrevocable chaos and disaster.

But there is one thing I know unequivocally, and that is that tedw, in his msg# 42796 has just presented the clearest, simplest, most succinct message of the gospel (good news) anyone will find anywhere.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
With the holiday season well upon us, do you dread the thought of venturing out to vie for parking space and fight the crowds of holiday shoppers? We invite you to relax in the comfort of your own home and take a close look at our festive gold coin jewelry offerings, suitable for any special occasion. 'Tis the Season, fellow goldmeisters, and what better gift...than the Gift of Gold! If you think these golden beauties are something on the computer screen, they'll knock you over in person. We invite you to contact Marie Ballard and she will be happy to help you select that perfect gift that's sure to please -- bullion coin pendants, historical pendants, gold chains and accessories, all at prices you are unlikely to find at the local jewelry store.

All of us here at USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals extend our best wishes to you and your families for a restful and fun-filled holiday season. Thank you for making this web site possible with your gold purchases through Centennial Precious Metals. It is you who nourish these pages and we appreciate the opportunity to do business with you!

Call 800-869-5115 and ask for Marie. . . or visit the link above to get a better idea what we're talking about .......... In order to assure getting your Gift of Gold into your hands before Christmas, we recommend that you place your order by December 15th.

Henri & *TEDW*. Way to make it easy to see hard ansers. But all those thoughts are prevented from being seen, unless one is granted to see it due to ones secret works being seen by the Spirit as being good. People judge, therefore thier thoughts are thwarted, actually to take that farther our thoughts are thwarted to the degree of us doing BAD. Or we see that much better, the better we strive to due right. By forgiving others is doing right, that will make things more clear. "And the very ones hating the righteous one will be held guilty". The righteous ones are so cause they do not hold any guilty, they know it is not for them to do. I am sorry my thoughts are not maybe making much sense.

Are we hippocrites???
We enforce the ten comandments with capitol punishment.

I cant wait for all this to be over.

Thanks TEDW, you are of course right about the thief. I speak only in half truths and only as I know them or think them at the time and readily admit that the world at large is a much more complex and beautiful place than I could ever give it credit for in words. The thief entered the Kingdom of Heaven in death. "...all he did was recognize and be sorry for his own sinfulness..." Repentance is a fine and beautiful thing when facing death but what of the living? Is it not possible to enter a Heaven on earth by receiving both the Savior and His word? He said, "...follow me and you shall have everlasting life". Did He mean after our death on earth? He really wasn't that specific. I have found that such a life in the here and now is possible and begins when one strives to grow in spirit. When one strives to live with the Spirit and not in spite of it, then our pasing from this world comes as no suprise.

Makes sense to me. It was over when the Way was opened for us to follow...for those who received the message. But now back to physical vs. paper gold discussion as opposed to gold to be found in the hearts of personkind.

CavanMan
Forgive me if I intrude on a private conversation. As Canuck says, the Bay of Fundy, and the St Johns river valley can be very pretty, particularly from late May to early July. One of my 3 favorite memories was a view of the St Johns river view from quite a distance up, on the old Trans Canada Hiway, with all of the deep emerald greens of the forests contrasting with the light blue of the river. Of course this was in the 50's, so things have changed. I also love the outwardness and simplicity of the people. Plunge right in, it is fun.

If I were planning such a trip, and had the time, I would spend a day or so in, particularly, old Montreal, a day in Quebec city, 9You have to try some of the resuarants) and then take the highway along the south shore of the St. Lawrence River all the way to the Atlantic, and down around the Gaspe penninsula. It is stunning, but a somewhat slow drive in parts because of some switchbacks. It will take you a day more than you plan. You can come back via Fundy, and maybe also get into Vermont, parts of which are beautiful too.

Parsifal 42790
Interesting train of thought, that.

Hill Billy Mitchell
42782 Our strategies seem very similiar according to all I see. For fun, and enlightenment, if you want to compare strategies further, Email me at currie@mqcinc.com Great minds think alike, it seems. (smile)
42781 Largely concur here too.

Pandagold 42780
What, the world isn't all black and white. You mean to tell me there are some grey areas too??

Black Blade
Retirement?? Define retirement. Is it doing more or less what you want to? Personally, I love my line of work, and it sounds as if you do too. So occasionally I play at something that makes obscene amounts of fiat, and then I play at something that spends it, or at least occupies a good deal of my time and interest. Am I retired? If I am not, I hope never to be. Sounds pretty much like what you describe.

Congratulations and/or best wishes, whichever you choose

Off to do some charity stuff.

j'Bear

To me, life has become very simple, Either I have enough, or I don't. Either I can get enough, or I can't.

...and the time is surely coming, when I will no longer be able to get gold.

FWIW
Goldfan

I do have to say, I usually dont like it when ones deviate from relevent stories that relate to GOLD here. And I do it all the time(Sorry) Anyways cant wait till see this week in the markets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am all fired up for this week! Matter of fact the whole year.

THANKS TRAIL GUIDE, AND ALL. Its really a cool trip through life when you have a road map of where we are heading. All of us here are sure lucky we are seeing this battle from these lines, and we are not going to have to fight on the front lines with almost everybody else. We get to veiw this war from a room sheltered from the bullets desighned to rip us apart. If we take to heart what we know here, we are at least immortal from a wealth standpoint.

Physical Gold will make you immortal to loosing your wealth. That is what Trail guide and others are saying. It may not be immposible to see the paper price of gold go somewhere, but it may not happen while you hold it on paper. But if you hold physical it will be yours when the time does come.

Hi Megatron,

Excuse me in advance if I seem harsh. That's not my intention, but I dont' have time for sugar-coating today. What both you and goldhuter have told us is that 90% of the people playing your game shouldn't be playing it. I believe you.

So without knowing anything else, I can advise a complete stranger, "Don't play the futures game! According to informed sources (Megatron & goldhunter), there's a 90% probability you'll lose." In fact, I could accurately say the same to a subset of gamblers already playing the futures game!

But if they did the intelligent thing and quit, what would happen to your game? So the continuation of the futures game requires, essentially, 90% of the players to be suckers. And that's BEFORE TSHTF and they change the rules in mid contest to favor the "home team."

I'm not condemning the game -- I made my bread and butter in a similar situation for over 25 years -- taking money from casinos who took it from the, essentially, suckers who played their games. And I often thought how ironic it was that the casinos promoted their operation to attract suckers, but anytime they discovered I wasn't one, would bar me or otherwise throw me out.

I can't count the number of times over the years I warned friends and acquaintences not to play the games because they didn't know enough to be playing. Some of them won anyway despite the odds, a few quit their jobs -- and when they went back to their day job after the inevitable loses, well they went back to start, did not pass go, and did not collect $200. (Obscure reference to the game of Monopoly.) Presumably they just paid dearly for an important piece of education.

But I felt somewhat responsible, because some of them were trying to emulate what I did without taking the time and effort to learn what they needed to play well enough to win. Does this strike any chord within you? On the other hand, they contributed, no matter how reluctant I am to admit it, to my income.

I assume then, that you're a professional futures gambler, and you believe you can beat the game. I'll even assume you're right -- at least as the rules are currently written.

Let me tell you about a professional gambler friend of mine, sharper than I am. I dubbed him and a couple other younger guys the "techno gamblers." The three of them carried TI programmable caluclators with them into the casinos. They would look at the rules, check their bankroll size, and go into the rest room and come out with the perfect betting strategy. You don't get any sharper.

But one of them, I call him Grasshopper, got taken. He held chips from a major casino too long (there are logical reasons to hold chips.) The casino changed chips, which they do periodically. Normally they honor anyone holding older chips, but they knew Grasshopper could beat them. So on a flimsy technicallity (see Florida currently for examples of similar), they refused to redeem his chips.

Five years, several hearings, many man-weeks, and a law-suit later, Grasshopper collected his money. He was persistent and lucky -- and poorer to the tune of lawyer fees and inflation.

He was among the best and brightest. I'll assume you are too. But will COMEX change the rules on you? Will you be able to get those hearings and afford the lawyers? Will you even be able to get the case into court? What's the precedent? HINT: I think it was Black Blade who documented that the best, and several other posters contributed too.

So I think it entirely appropriate to warn that 90% of those reading this site (a random sample, afterall) should not be playing futures at all, even if the cage redeems their chips in the way you expect. And FOA has warned -- and others have documented -- that they have cheated in the recent past when under duress, and, for that matter, the distant past (Hunt Bros.). What makes you think they won't again?

Is YOUR bankroll sized accordingly?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Just a very tenuous read on the last sentence of your post: Are you thinking about going back to your day job??

Great post. A new perspective on you for me.

That saying about who is the patsy at the poker table, right?

We know we've been the patsies in financial life pretty much all along. Now we're trying to figure out who the pros are, and what hands they're playing.

Hi Mr Gresham!

"We know we've been the patsies in financial life pretty much all along. Now we're trying to figure out who the
pros are, and what hands they're playing." -Mr Gresham
msg#: 42808

Indeed -- and if you know a few of the pros, and they leave, you know the game is too tough even for them. Soros, etc. So what do YOU do? Keep playing even though you knew you were the "tuna" even BEFORE the game got that tough??

Where do you go then when you quit? Normally cash, but times aren't normal. As FOA/TG explained so well in yesterday's trail update, someone's going to get stuck when they try to redeem their chips at the cage. More accurately, they'll get dollars, not gold -- and at the "official" (doctored) price -- and likely in dollars drastically reduced in buying power by hyper-inflation.

There are just some "interesting times" in history when only gold will do if some of the possible outcomes are serious enough. My read is that, unless you're sleep'n, this is definitely one of those times.

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. But always remember "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future."

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmNasdaq 2,645.29 + Dow 10,373.54 = 13,018.83 divide by 2 = 6509.415 Ponzi

Down 146.385 from last week


I looks like things are starting to get interesting. At 6,509.415 the ponzi is at its all time low.
I think its a safe bet to say it looks like were just getting started.


The link provided by RossL
Thank you Sir.
As always

$hifty

RE: The Maritime Provinces (CA)Thanks. Planning a vacation for this summer. I'm sure the entire province is spectacular. Looking for a point to hole up for a week and sight see etc. Is Halifax the answer?

What gets overlooked is that gold, or the price thereof, is only, in basic economic terms, a very small part of the economic equation. It is in psychological terms where gold truly glitters and shines.

For example, let us assume that the headlines tomorrow were - "OIL JUMPS ANOTHER $10" Now that would have impact, I agree - especially in the current light of the Middle East tensions and the, already added increases. It would also, eventually, have an impact on inflation, and removing dollars from the pocket.

But what if the headlines were - "GOLD JUMPS $30" -( a mere 10% above its '98 price.) In basic economic terms there is no relation as to which would have the greatest adverse impact. But in psychological terms, I know which would throw the biggest cat among the pidgeons, and could bring down the whole pack of cards.

Having said that. Because of the way 'conditioning' has been perpetrated over the past decade, everyone would expect the price to rapidly fall again within a short space of time, so alarm bells would not ring quite so loud. But instead of falling back again, lets assume, shortly after, two further 5% increases bringing the price to around $340 an ounce - still well below the percentage increase in the price of oil. I believe the noises from the chicken coup would be frightening - especially if you were the farmer.

When we consider this, we know why the manipulation of the gold price is being practiced - for purely psychological reasons. Having said that, it is not truly the case. Because of the complexities (interactions) of the financial web, their is rarely, if ever, one reason, or one effect.

Something else that is overlooked, that could give insight into the attitudes of the Arab oil 'sheiks'. is that they know just as much about the gold market as they do about oil. Oil maybe expressed in dollar terms, but to them it is in gold terms, and they have a set yardstick as to how many barrels of their crude equals one ounce of gold.
When it strays, they bring it back on track sooner or later.

We have the expression that oil is black gold, but one never hears that gold is yellow oil. To the Arab, gold is real money - the dollar is not.

I did not see Halifax while in N.S.; the family stayed away from cities, large towns etc.

Without a doubt the most spectacular sight was Cavendish Beach, Prince Edward Island. Bring dark sunglasses and binoculars, schedule for a hot Saturday afternoon if you know what I mean!

Breathtaking scenary goes well with the breathtaking scenary.

Canuck.

I have just received the following from a friend in Rhode Island. I have not checked its historical accuracy, so if any of you find a 'goof' let me know. If it is fact, then it is quite interesting - though some of those end results are a little un-nerving

"........sending a little historic trivia that may be of interest to you."
JUST ONE VOTE
in 1649 one vote gave Oliver Cromwell control of England. In 1649 one
vote caused Charles I of England to be executed. In 1776 one vote gave
America the English language instead of German. In 1845 one vote
brought Texas into the union. In 1868 one vote saved President Andrew
Johnson from impeachment. In 1876 one vote gave Rutherford B. Hayes the
presiidency of the United States. In 1876 one vote changed France from
a monarchy to a republic. And in 1923 one vote gave Adolf Hitler
leadership of the Nazi party, _ The Chamber of Commerce Newsletter,
Willard, Ohio.
Hope all is well

Hi Pandagold!

I believe many of those votes, if memory serves, are votes by legislative bodies like the House of Commons and the Reichstag. In such relatively small bodies, one vote decisions are fairly common. Like the current Bush Gore Supreme Court decision could easily turn out to be 5 to 4.

I don't have the time to check all the one vote decisions in your post, but statistical probability tells me this is probably the case.

In the popular vote, one vote decisions, even in relatively small jurisdictions is extremely rare.

Regards,
Journeyman

Hello Topaz, I'm here almost every day but post very infrequently. Wishing you and yours a great holiday season!

Hello Perplexed, thanks for the acknowledgement. A rather nice post yourself. Happy Holiday's!

I would like to extend Season's Greetings to those at Centennial Precious Metals, and to all who post and read here. I wish you all the best, not only for this holiday season, but also for the New Year and beyond.

mhchuck

First of all...more deceit from this web-site:

"Don't play the futures game! According to informed sources (Megatron & goldhunter), there's a 90% probability you'll lose." In fact, I could accurately say the same to a subset of gamblers already playing the futures game!

The above quote is from Mr Journeyman posted earlier...

This site is getting to be more amazing to me every day...

The above quote is not only HOGWASH in terms of the TRUTH but also a position, statement or opinion NEVER made by me...

I strongly object to this B.S. going around here any time one of the posters' statements talks about futures/options when they either don't know what they're talking about, or start lieing about what others say.

Mr Journeyman, You should know better...You're a liar.

I just received a prospectus this week urging our family to invest more funds into a mutual funds family of funds. We deposited what was to us a large sum into one of the Gold funds in the early 1980's, and have never touched it since.(The fund now has 2 Gold funds).The fund invested in Gold mining stocks. We have lost about 95% of our paper dollar value, to this point in time. But, we're not the only ones! The prospectus shows current assets at $57,019,000(paper assets)
The other Gold fund shows assets of: $25,836,000.
Combined assets of:$82,855,000.
Combined assets in 1996 were:$402,620,000!
I also happened to look at a copy of Barrons this week.(I used to subsctibe to Barrons.) What I noticed different from when I first subscribed many years ago, was the "Thousands" of Mutual Funds listed.(Way up from hundreds in the 1980's)
Folks, to me this looks like where the "Major" amount of U.S. paper dollars are invested! Everyone invested in these funds expects to have it there when they retire....Many, many may be in for a surprise! What do you think would happen if a small amount cash out right now and put their cash in physical Gold for safe-keeping?

As soon as I finish this post I intend to write to the fund that sent me the prospectus a letter something like this:

Dear Sirs,
I originally invested in your Gold fund with the expectations of increasing my original deposit over a period of time, to use at the time of my retirement. In the last 20 or so years it has proven to be one of the worst investments of all time.
I notice from your recent prospectus there is still $57,019,000 in the fund. Sirs, I humbly ask you, do we just wait till the $57,019,000 is all gone by following the current investment strategy,or do we change strategy to preserve what is still in the fund?
My suggestion:
Take "ALL", or a large portion of the $57,019,000 and invest in PHYSICAL GOLD, RIGHT NOW!
I am going to spread this advice to the other mutual Fund Gold funds and all the people I know that have shares in mutual funds.
As a side note I notice currently almost all sectors of the shareholder investment world are way down from early year 2000 highs, already trillions of paper dollars have been lost, by some, if not all.
I implore you,please put the remaining assets of the fund into physical Gold before it's too late.Yes I know the funds original guidelines would have to be changed to do this,please get them changed as quickly as humanly possible.
Sincerely,,,Name Withheld!
[End of letter]


Now, if anyone else out there would like to write to a Gold mutual fund here are some toll free phone numbers to call to receive free prospectus information:

SPECIAL NOTE:
These numbers are supplied only to get addresses of some listed Gold mutual funds for the express purpose of writing letters or e-mail similar letters as the example posted above.(Addresses and e-mails are not listed in my old copy of Barrons.)
Another note:
""All financial figures are very old.""
1. Amer cent ac gl Gold; inv assets:$225,300,000 Tel 1-800-345-2021.
2. Blanchard prec metals,Gold assets: 35,700,000 Tel 1-800-829-3863
3. Bull&Bear Gold investors assets:9,900,000 Tel 1-800-847-4200.
4. Fidelity sel amer Gold;assets: $188,200,000 Tel 1-800-544-8888
5. Fidelity sel prec mtls; assets: $123,100,000 Tel 1-800-544-8888.
6. Franklin Gold fund I; assets:$256,100,000 Tel 1-800-342-5236.
7. Franklin Gold fund II; assets:$19,200,000 Tel 1-800-342-5236.
8. IDS precious metals A; assets:$49,400,000 Tel 1-800-328-8300.
9. IDS precious metals B; assets $6,500,000 Tel 1-800-328-8300.
10. Invesco strat Gold; assets:$106,000,000 Tel 1-800-525-8085.
11. Lexington Goldfund; assets $53,700,000 Tel 1-800-526-0056.
12. Lexington strat invest; assets $18,500,000 Tel 1-800-526-0056.
13. Midas fund...Gold; assets $97,100,000 Tel 1-800-400-6432
14. Morgan Stanley in Gold A; assets $13,200,000 Tel 1-800-548-7786.
15. Oppenheimer gld & sp A; assets $91,200,000 Tel 1-800-525-7048
16. Scudder Gold fund; assets $124,100,000 Tel 1-800-225-2470.
17.US glbl Gold shares; assets $50,200,000 Tel 1-800-873-8637.
18.US glbl world Gold; assets $120,200,000 Tel 1-800-873-8637.
19. Van Eck Intl Gold A; assets $213,500,000 Tel 1-800-826-2333
20. Vanguard Spl Gold; assets $287,400,000 Tel 1-800-662-7447.
Lots more but not enough space.

Now, the reason I included assets is because as of Dec.1,2000 COMEX's total amount of Gold inventory, according to Bridge News is:
1,863,611 ounces or about 58 tonnes!
Value about $512,000,000 @ $275 per ounce Gold!
If we add only the assets of the above listed funds, I come up with $2,088,500,000 almost "4" times the current value of "ALL" the Gold listed at COMEX!

If a few hundred other people wrote letters to these companies, similar to the example above!,,,, does anyone else beside me think it could, in time, change the complexion of the whole Gold industry....By causing a short squeeze on physical Gold....And forcing the Gold prices up????
I hope I don't get sued for this post!!!
Those in the Know....Are Buying....Gold...beesting.

I just received a prospectus this week urging our family to invest more funds into a mutual funds family of funds. We deposited what was to us a large sum into one of the Gold funds in the early 1980's, and have never touched it since.(The fund now has 2 Gold funds).The fund invested in Gold mining stocks. We have lost about 95% of our paper dollar value, to this point in time. But, we're not the only ones! The prospectus shows current assets at $57,019,000(paper assets)
The other Gold fund shows assets of: $25,836,000.
Combined assets of:$82,855,000.
Combined assets in 1996 were:$402,620,000!
I also happened to look at a copy of Barrons this week.(I used to subsctibe to Barrons.) What I noticed different from when I first subscribed many years ago, was the "Thousands" of Mutual Funds listed.(Way up from hundreds in the 1980's)
Folks, to me this looks like where the "Major" amount of U.S. paper dollars are invested! Everyone invested in these funds expects to have it there when they retire....Many, many may be in for a surprise! What do you think would happen if a small amount cash out right now and put their cash in physical Gold for safe-keeping?

As soon as I finish this post I intend to write to the fund that sent me the prospectus a letter something like this:

Dear Sirs,
I originally invested in your Gold fund with the expectations of increasing my original deposit over a period of time, to use at the time of my retirement. In the last 20 or so years it has proven to be one of the worst investments of all time.
I notice from your recent prospectus there is still $57,019,000 in the fund. Sirs, I humbly ask you, do we just wait till the $57,019,000 is all gone by following the current investment strategy,or do we change strategy to preserve what is still in the fund?
My suggestion:
Take "ALL", or a large portion of the $57,019,000 and invest in PHYSICAL GOLD, RIGHT NOW!
I am going to spread this advice to the other mutual Fund Gold funds and all the people I know that have shares in mutual funds.
As a side note I notice currently almost all sectors of the shareholder investment world are way down from early year 2000 highs, already trillions of paper dollars have been lost, by some, if not all.
I implore you,please put the remaining assets of the fund into physical Gold before it's too late.Yes I know the funds original guidelines would have to be changed to do this,please get them changed as quickly as humanly possible.
Sincerely,,,Name Withheld!
[End of letter]


Now, if anyone else out there would like to write to a Gold mutual fund here are some toll free phone numbers to call to receive free prospectus information:

SPECIAL NOTE:
These numbers are supplied only to get addresses of some listed Gold mutual funds for the express purpose of writing letters or e-mail similar letters as the example posted above.(Addresses and e-mails are not listed in my old copy of Barrons.)
Another note:
""All financial figures are very old.""
1. Amer cent ac gl Gold; inv assets:$225,300,000 Tel 1-800-345-2021.
2. Blanchard prec metals,Gold assets: 35,700,000 Tel 1-800-829-3863
3. Bull&Bear Gold investors assets:9,900,000 Tel 1-800-847-4200.
4. Fidelity sel amer Gold;assets: $188,200,000 Tel 1-800-544-8888
5. Fidelity sel prec mtls; assets: $123,100,000 Tel 1-800-544-8888.
6. Franklin Gold fund I; assets:$256,100,000 Tel 1-800-342-5236.
7. Franklin Gold fund II; assets:$19,200,000 Tel 1-800-342-5236.
8. IDS precious metals A; assets:$49,400,000 Tel 1-800-328-8300.
9. IDS precious metals B; assets $6,500,000 Tel 1-800-328-8300.
10. Invesco strat Gold; assets:$106,000,000 Tel 1-800-525-8085.
11. Lexington Goldfund; assets $53,700,000 Tel 1-800-526-0056.
12. Lexington strat invest; assets $18,500,000 Tel 1-800-526-0056.
13. Midas fund...Gold; assets $97,100,000 Tel 1-800-400-6432
14. Morgan Stanley in Gold A; assets $13,200,000 Tel 1-800-548-7786.
15. Oppenheimer gld & sp A; assets $91,200,000 Tel 1-800-525-7048
16. Scudder Gold fund; assets $124,100,000 Tel 1-800-225-2470.
17.US glbl Gold shares; assets $50,200,000 Tel 1-800-873-8637.
18.US glbl world Gold; assets $120,200,000 Tel 1-800-873-8637.
19. Van Eck Intl Gold A; assets $213,500,000 Tel 1-800-826-2333
20. Vanguard Spl Gold; assets $287,400,000 Tel 1-800-662-7447.
Lots more but not enough space.

Now, the reason I included assets is because as of Dec.1,2000 COMEX's total amount of Gold inventory, according to Bridge News is:
1,863,611 ounces or about 58 tonnes!
Value about $512,000,000 @ $275 per ounce Gold!
If we add only the assets of the above listed funds, I come up with $2,088,500,000 almost "4" times the current value of "ALL" the Gold listed at COMEX!

If a few hundred other people wrote letters to these companies, similar to the example above!,,,, does anyone else beside me think it could, in time, change the complexion of the whole Gold industry....By causing a short squeeze on physical Gold....And forcing the Gold prices up????
I hope I don't get sued for this post!!!
Those in the Know....Are Buying....Gold...beesting.

You've gone over the line. Calling someone like Journeyman a "liar" was a bit more than I can take. Beyond the personal attack on Journeyman, the attack on this Forum was unjustified and beyond the pale. I just wanted you and this Forum to know it wasn't Randy that pulled your code, but me, or I wouldn't have even bothered posting this. Good luck in all you do, Goldhunter. I regret that it had to come to this. I thought we had gotten beyond this sort of thing, but apparently we haven't. Posting privileges are just that a "privilege", not a "right."

Goldhunter's posting privileges are revoked for breaking Prohibition One: Personal attacks, slanderous or derogatory remarks directed at another poster.

Hear, hear, Michael. May we all work to maintain the integrity of the forum. And be not so hasty to hit that "Submit" button when our words could fill out better with some further thought. (A lesson that stings me anew every few months.)

J'man. The pros may leave the particular "dollar derivatives" game we are studying, but they are always engaged in the Power game, vs. each other and vs. us serfs.

I spent today thinking of our various differing views of TPTB, much as the 6 blind men describing the elephant. As wrong as we may be at times, it is vital to try (was it Parsifal, HBM, or Henri who said it earlier today?) to see through the curtain at who is pulling our strings.

I don't think you or I will ever be negotiating for majority control over an oilfield in Kazakhstan or the like, so a few coins tucked away is our likely upper limit. On second thought, maybe the dealings of the ultra-powerful _aren't_ really so interesting, after all?

There was an article very recently about gold moving up soon whereas silver would not because there is "too much of it."

I could find a dozen articles proclaiming that inventories are dangerously low and as many claiming enormus above ground holdings. Within these debates there are sub-debates regarding the use of digital photography, it is killing silver or it has no impact.

Well, which is it? Why is there such a widespread opinion on the amount of silver inventory?

The CB hoards of gold seem to be similiar. Are the above ground hoards and subsequent potential overhang gold's demise or has the selling/leasing brought inventory to a critical point.


Or does it matter, simple supply/demand dynamics will cause silver and gold to rise when the excrement hits the fan, regardless of present inventories?

Confused silvercollector.

P.S.: Picked up 100oz. last Thursday at ridiculous prices.
Personal silver stash nears gold stash. Hope everyone is as pleased with their own PHYSICAL holdings. Have a nice week.
May the fleas of a thousand camels infest the armpits of the shorts.

This ongoing issue of digital photography supposedly adversly impacting silver demand has been played for many years. You would be best off to pick up some more silver EVERY time you hear this sham. It has not happened and is not likely to happen any time soon. Very similar to blaming the gold manipulation, excuse me, low price of gold entirely on Australian hedging. These provide cover for nefarious activities because they seem believable. The huge surplus of silver is largely used up, GONE, forever. Credible sources have recently proclaimed there are actually more above ground stocks of silver than gold at this late date. Read some of Ted Butlers articles and you be the judge about what is right and what is disinformation.

Thanks gentlemen for the CLHE-HoF tie in with The Lighter Side of Gold, it is appreciated. We will make every attempt to bring continued honor to this Forum. I'm sure glad one doesn't get "bonked" for merely assaulting the castle.
Goonight & thanks again, some of the little things in life can be quite meaningful.

Hi ALL,

Thanks for comming to my defense, Sir Michael! However, perhaps there is some merit behind Sir goldhunter's post.

It's possible I was in error in including goldhunter as one of the posters claiming 90% of futures players would lose. I made that post from memory, thinking principally of the following post from Megatron:

"options/futures/goldhunter assault
"forwards,futures swaps, etc are TOOLS! They are sophisticated
instuments to be played by those who understand the underlying
risk/reward ratio. Period. anyone else who ventures
to play will win
by dumb luck ONLY!!!"

And particularly the following:

"It is excedingly difficult to profit, rigged market
or not,and
90% of the players are NOT savvy enough." -megatron msg#: 42766

In fact, a strict interpretation of what even Megatron posted does not specifically say 90% will lose, just that "90% of the players are NOT savvy enough."

That's what led me to pen (or type may be more accurate) the following in msg#: 42807:

"'According to informed sources (Megatron & goldhunter), there's a 90%
probability you'll lose.' In fact, I could accurately say the same to
a subset of gamblers already playing the futures game!"

I believe I remember goldhunter having said something similar, but memory is a dangerous thing as you can see. It may be that I just lumped goldhunter and megatron together because Megatron has mentioned goldhunter in at least two of his posts and gone to his defense. I give Megatron and goldhunter the benefit of the doubt, and I apologize for whatever extent they feel misrepresented.

But the facts that options trading is indeed dangerous and fairly obviously misunderstood and costly for the majority of players, in fact costing traders about 90% of money risked, stands:

*The Hieronymus Study[1]*
... Except for a few big losers (16 over $15,000) and fewer
big winners (6 over $15,000), the clients of the commission
house tended to pass money back and forth, paying
commissions in the shuffle. It is interesting to note that a
large number (170) of accounts were traded only once or a
few times at most. This group, although constituting 37
percent of the total number of accounts, contributed 64
percent of the total losses. Regular traders (those who won
or lost at least $500 and contributed $250 in commissions
during the year) did better as a group, and their net
profits were nearly enough to offset their net losses.
*Regular traders (42 percent) paid $364,647 of the total
$406,344 in commissions, or almost 90 percent, which
strongly suggests that the regular traders relieved the
one-time traders of their money and then deposited it with
the firm in the form of commissions.* -_The Futures Game_ by
Teweles and Jones, p.311

NOTES:
1. Thomas A. Hieronymus, _Economics of Futures Trading_ (New
York: Commodity Research Bureau, 1977), pp. 259-263

Regards,
Journeyman

Yes,certainly the 'house' wins no matter what, BUT, did the house not also PAY OUT hundreds if not thousands of small wins? SOMEONE had to keep winning to keep the delusion alive, did they not? If the odds get too lopsided people pick up on it, smart people anyway, and move to another game or quit. I should have qualified my earlier statement
that 90% of people lose buying options. The word lose implies they are finished. Not so. Some come just short of breaking even. Some have small gains which eventually get eaten by commisions. Some have winning streaks and then losing streaks. 100% of the people who bought gold in 1980 and held are 'losers' technically? All kinds of money has been made in the last 20 years by savvy traders in 'paper' gold. REPEAT REPEAT savvy traders. Savvy traders also see the liquidity drying up. Move on. I am 100% convinced that gold/silver are going to the moon and that physical ownership is paramount, BUT there is absolutely NO ARGUMENT
that smart people have traded thier way to profits in futures/options for 20 years while technically buyers of physical gold have been "losers". A person who made 5cents since 1980 in futures is ahead of ANYONE who bought and held gold.

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=86692Here is a thoughtful look at the recession ahead. We can well speculate how people will attempt to recommence Saving with their remaining funds, once they realize that stock market appreciation is a bygone.

I should make the distinction: I thought the discussion on commodities' risk a good one and did not have any problem with it. But this did not have to do with the discussion on commodities' risk. It had to do with an uncalled for and unnecessary personal attack.

Let the discussion continue, and my apologies to all for the unpleaasantness.

I'm kinda sorry he got kicked off. He sounded irate! better watch myself!!

I was looking around the site tonight and noticed the Christmas decorations on the home page.
Well done! Will the forum be decorated soon to get us in the spirit of the holiday season?
You have my chad.
$hifty

CorrectedI was looking around the site tonight and noticed the Christmas decorations on the home page.
Well done! Will the forum be decorated soon to get us in the spirit of the holiday season?
You have my chad.
$hifty

http://www.gov.ns.ca/tourism.htmCavan Man,

A kind stranger forwarded your previous Forum message to me (I'm not at the Forum very much anymore...frustrated with all my investments, including gold-related investments, and I can't bear to look at financial sites anymore).

I don't know what part of Canada you wish to visit.. lots of great places to see notwithstanding the substandard economy and even more deplorable government. It seems you are interested in Nova Scotia, and the above is the link to Nova Scotia tourism. Nova Scotia is truly a wonderful place, and I believe Halifax is the world's best small city.. it punches way above its weight. Get the Doers and Dreamers Guide from the above site, plus the "Where" magazine for Halifax. The rural areas, especially the South Shore and Cape Breton, are quite beautiful. PEI also has a publication similar to the Doers and Dreamers Guide, and is worth a look, especially if you're doing the car holiday thing. I also like Newfoundland a lot, but it's a bit off the beaten track.

Canada has a lot of great cities to visit. I would think that Montreal and Quebec City would be interesting to Americans, due to the French/European flavour. Quebec City especially could be in Europe, especially the Lower Town. (I'm partial to small cities, Montreal is also unique though). Ottawa has lots of museums/ historic sites and is very clean. Toronto has big city attractions and lots of great restaurants due to the many ethnic communities. Calgary is clean and scenic with the mountains, as is B.C.(Vancouver and Victoria). (I don't know the western cities at all...never been and need to visit them.)

Hope this helps; advise if you need more info.

http://www.usagold.com

Im sorry to see Goldhunter go but I can understand the reasons. Perhaps he can e-mail and apology and be allowed back on as the Stranger was at one time. I believe his knowledge of the Futures markets would be an asset to this forum.

On the subject of Futures. Personally, I own physical gold, some gold stock (GSR), but I also play in the options market. My stratedgy is to stay long gold via options, and never risk more than Im prepared to lose. If the options expire worthless (and they have), I just go long again as I am convinced we will see another rise like the Washington agreement rise or the placer dome rise. And I believe the profits from volatility will far outweigh my loses.Maybe not very sophisticated but it works for me.

Oil options look good to me now also.

AP
Iraq To Resume Exports Until Jan.
by WAIEL FALEH
Associated Press Writer


BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Two days after it stopped pumping oil, Iraq announced Sunday it will resume exporting its crude to fulfill contracts already signed under the U.N.-approved oil-for-food deal.

Iraq halted production Friday after the United Nations rejected its proposed oil price for December, a price U.N. experts said was too low. Iraq's proposal was seen as part of an attempt to get around U.N. controls on Iraqi oil profits.

''The Iraqi oil policy has been always aimed at stability of the world oil market. Iraq has absolutely no intention to terminate or hinder the exports of its crude in the world market,'' Oil Minister Amer Mohammed Rashid said at a news conference Sunday announcing the resumption of exports.

He said Iraq is working with U.N. oil overseers to export the full quantity of oil agreed to under the current six-month phase of the oil-for-food deal. This phase is due to end Tuesday, but because of the disruption in pumping will now be extended until sometime in January.

Iraq, under sanctions for 10 years, needs the sanctions committee to approve its proposed prices to export its oil each month. Under the oil-for-food program, profits from Iraqi exports go into an escrow bank account so the United Nations can monitor the money's use.

But Iraq wants buyers of its crude to pay a surcharge of 50 cents a barrel into an Iraqi-controlled account. The low price formula proposed by Baghdad last week was believed to be an attempt to compensate buyers for the surcharge.

Companies have indicated an unwillingness to pay the surcharge since it would violate U.N. sanctions.

Rashid defended Iraq's prices, saying they are fair and in the interest of the Iraqi people. He said he is discussing the prices with the overseers, whom he said ''are under political pressure.''

''There is better understanding of our position,'' he said. ''We are optimistic to reach an agreement because we have no intention to hinder oil exports.''

Rashid denied that Iraq has conditions to resume its exports. ''Iraq is annoyed at this position. The American pressure was behind the stoppage of the oil flow,'' he said.

The sanctions committee has said oil companies under new contracts can continue loading Iraqi crude onto tankers, but cannot pay for it until Iraq proposes December prices that are in line with fair market value.

Rashid also said Iraq will consider extending the oil-for-food program for another phase once a resolution is issued at the U.N. Security Council, but criticized the program for not fulfilling its purpose.

''We have exported more than $38 billion. Only $8.5 billion worth of contracts have arrived,'' he said. ''About $3.5 billion worth of contracts are on hold while there is $14-15 billion frozen in banks. ... The deal is a failure.''

http://catalog.dogpile.com/texis/catalog?a=news&q=Iraq+To+Resume+Exports+Until+Jan.The link above is for the story below.
Shifty

Ahh! BB,
Sounds just wonderful - Keep that gen-set ready and raring to go though!
Kaknut,
Welcome (I don't recall seeing your moniker before?) As we here in Oz have just experienced, it's far more likely the "loony" will fall vis a vis the US$ than vice-versa.
Seems to me we're in the "monster devouring it's young" phase of the great washout.
If you're not comfortable with 100 oz au just get 50. If/when push comes to shove, that'll be enough. OTOH if Au goes to pot and you suffer a loss Then HELL! you're entitled to moan and groan, "You're a Freekin GOLDBUG - it's EXPECTED!

Don't waste your time with SDB's, much better to have it "at hand" - for "fondling". Pretty soon after your first fondle you'll be back down at the Dealers getting the other 50!- then 50 MORE - then...

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2000/12/3/183023.shtmlSenator: Gore May Be Seeking Vice Presidency Under Bush
Christopher Ruddy
Monday, Dec. 4, 2000
Congress is abuzz with a story that may have seemed fanciful a month ago, or even a week ago, but � as Al Gore continues to battle for the Oval Office � congressional Republicans fear it may be true.
There is a growing fear among Republican leaders and the Bush camp that Al Gore, if he fails to wrest the presidency from Bush, may attempt to become vice president.

On Saturday, I spoke with Sen. Bob Smith, a Republican of New Hampshire.

He confirmed to me that both Democrat and Republican lawmakers are talking about a Bush-Gore presidency.

Here's how that might happen:

If Gore wins one or more of his legal efforts, and the Florida Supreme Court backs up his claims that he won the popular vote in Florida, Gore will claim the presidency.

At the same time, the Florida Legislature will select and designate Bush's set of electors to vote on the Dec. 18 Electoral College date.

Two sets of electors for Forida will vie for status in the Electoral College, and the dispute will be resolved by the new Congress, which will be seated on Jan. 5 of next year.

There is little doubt that the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will endorse Bush, certify his Florida electors, and end Gore's quest for the presidency.

Then the action turns to the Senate, which has the consitutional duty to select the vice president. As it stands now, the new Senate will be evenly divided, 50-50, between the Republicans and Democrats. With Al Gore as vice president and president of the Senate until Jan. 20, the Senate will technically be controlled by the Democrats.

Gore and the Democrats will select the new vice president.

Smith says that under existing law, only four people can be chosen by the Senate to be vice president: Bush, Cheney, Gore or Lieberman.

But if the Senate Democrats select Lieberman, they will lose control of the Senate. He is currently a sitting Senator from Connecticut. If he leaves the Senate, the Republican governor of Connecticut will chose his replacement.

Gore will have a good argument to take the vice presidency for himself. He will also be emboldened by claiming to have won the popular vote nationally, the popular vote in Florida, and the Electoral College.

Smith says he does not foresee Gore's claims accepted by the Bush administration. "Vice President" Gore would not be part of the administration or the Cabinet, but would simply keep his constitutional duty as president of the Senate.

Still, "Vice President" Gore would have a valuable platform to prepare for another presidential run in 2004.

It is widely believed that if Gore loses to Bush he will be finished politically. However, this novel twist, with Gore assuming the vice presidency, gives him political viability.

Far-fetched? Smith doesn't think so and said anything is possible if the Electoral College dispute lands in the hands of Congress.

Asked if he thinks the matter will go before Congress, Smith said, "I definitely think so."

Concerns about Gore or another Democrat trying to have the new Democrat-controlled Senate steal the vice-presidency from Dick Cheney are being taken very seriously.

Bush camp sources tell me that the Bush campaign sees an effort by the Democrats to take the vice presidency a very real possibility.

Already the Bush campaign is planning a strategy of getting one or more Democratic senators to defect to the Republican camp.

Bush's phone call to Democratic Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana is one indication the Bush camp wants to avert a showdown in the Senate, and some key Democratic Senators may be offered Cabinet positions to keep Gore or Lieberman from the vice presidency.

END
------------------------------------------------------------

I hope this never happens.

$hifty

Gold is up +$1.50 at $270.00, and Pd is up $15.00 at $837.00 and ready to bounce over $850.00. Many are beginning to realize that the Russians have no Pd left and the lid is about to blow off. The Japanese TOCOM and NYMEX appear ready to delist Pd and prevent an embarrassing repeat of last years default and margin increase debacles. Meanwhile, after hours trading in some gold equities last week could signal that something strange is in the works. Newmont, Harmony, Homestake, and Durban trading volumes were extremely heavy. Rumors are that Arab countries are acquiring large amounts of gold bullion over the last couple of months. It may mean nothing, and then again�����

- Black Blade
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Here we go! Petroleum on the rise, and NG at a new record high as it BLASTS through $7.00 Mbtu!

Natural Gas 7.005 +0.332 +4.98 %
Crude Oil 32.48 +0.46 +1.44 %
Heating Oil 0.9845 +0.0137 +1.41 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.825 +0.0007 +0.08 %

Inflation here we come!

I suppose the first thing before giving this sort of advise, is to ask: Other than Gold, what do you like?

Personally, I can spend a happy afternoon watching the artisans in one of the villages east of Rimouski, along the south shore road of the St. Lawrence River, do their thing. (wood carving mostly, miniatures of old style French Canadian Habitants, and I love the way they capture the feeling.) I often stop and spend an hour, or an afternoon, beside a babbling brook, or to breath in a particularly beautiful sight in the mountains, or perhaps climb partway up that mountain. I love nature, and being at peace with nature.

Not for me are the beaches, I would rather spend time at the docks helping, or watching a fisherman with his load, or how he cares for his equipment. I can take 1/2 or 1 hour at a historical site, contemplating what and where we came from, but only longer if there are some stories that are associated with that spot, and then I can go till I run out of stories.

I love getting invited into peoples lives, just to see how the other half lives. I have taken jobs on a farm for a week just to do that. I don't usually have an itinerary on vacation, I just sort of head East, or whatever, and only worry about the date I want to get home. Nor do I have an interest in shopping till I drop. More I just go till I find something interesting, and stop, for as long as it is interesting.

Canimami is right, Prince Edward Island can have some very beautiful peaceful moments, and you can drive across from Nova Scotia now. Newfoundland is quite different from the sandpile that is PEI, and the locals call it "the rock". Take the coastal ferry from Point aux Basques to Argentia, and stop of at one of the little fishing villages (assuming you can find a place to stay)(say a village like Grand Bruit, with its 160 people) and you will realize why the call it that, and how that effects their lives.

It is beginning to sound like a city is more your style, and if so I would suggest Montreal (old town) or Quebec city, with empasis on lower town. I got all interested, while visiting the Citidal, which is perched way up on a small mountain, with the water ram that uses the flow of the St. Lawrence River to force water up to the Citidal. Been in operation for hundreds of years.

So, what turns you on? What would be an ideal vacation?

Regards
j'Bear

Let's take some action....Splendid Sir !!!!
That's exactely the kind of actions that are urgently needed. Bravo !!
You are inspiring as to show how goldphiles must come up for the cause. Unfortunately, most among us keep on talking to themselves.

Thats for a nice perspective into your life. Makes me want to do a few things a little different, after having read that. I get from that, things are great if you stop to enjoy them, of course you need the abitity, will, time, understanding, to beable to enjoy things the way it sounds you do.

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/christopheredmonds/1191494.htmlExcerpt from article at above link

Here's an interesting note. Every recession we have had in the last 30 years has been either caused, or at least triggered by, higher oil prices. If you go back to 1974, the recession was caused by a doubling or tripling of oil prices. The same is true with the 1979-'81 recession. And, to a lesser extent, the Kuwait War pushed prices higher, and that had an economic impact. There was more there than just energy, but the 1970s were clearly dominated by major energy price moves. So far this time, we have had an energy price move on par with what we saw in the 1970s.


Also:

I think it is primarily other factors. I really don't think OPEC can provide a significant amount of additional oil to the market. We are at the lowest level of excess capacity in over 30 years in a nonwar period. That itself is an extremely bullish statement.

I have my doubts whether OPEC can meaningfully increase production. We think they have about a million barrels of daily excess capacity. That is, by far, the lowest number we have ever seen. Clearly, OPEC has increased production significantly over the past 12 months and it has little impact on prices.

There are two other factors that are preventing oil from getting to the end consumer: a tanker and a refining bottleneck. Add OPEC, and I don't know how the end consumer can get more oil in the next 12 months.

On the tanker front, we've seen rates triple in the last 12 months. They are well above replacement-cost economics. The problem is it takes two years to build a new tanker.

We saw refining margins explode this summer and the refiners are running all-out. Do we have more capacity there? Not really, and it will be a while before we do.

We say OPEC could be the controlling factor here, but the fact is they don't have a lot of control because they don't have a lot of excess capacity but, even if they did, they couldn't get their oil to the end market. And, even if they could get it to the end market, we can't refine it.

There is more on NG and coal as well.

Exactly what I have going, and I sure am happy to wake up everyday. Physical, but cant possably afford the chance of a miss in the options markets. Mine have been expiring worthless everytime, even when they have gone to the moon twice now. But I think now I will beable to capture profits while staying long (in case of this prolonged bull market)((Actually that bull market is already set in stone, we all know that)). Yep oil is a bargain!!! I think if prices can hold for another 2 days, untill I fund more speculative capitol, into my always faltering futures account, and can buy some of those feb 31 calls I will be sitting fat (this time I tell myself it will be different then all the other times when I lost hahhaahaahha). But really, I think it will be. And my GSR (my only holding of a mining company, I remember not being able to resist picking some up for 1.50 after having heard Bill Murphy talk about it) and I am happy with that buy also even though it has gone down to .50 (laughing) cause now I can pick up more for ever as long as it stays at these prices or just goes bankrupt or something. Anyways I am going to go check out market action now. I seen Gold acting frisky. I rember seeing the dollar up .03 though, so I am hoping to now go see it red!! I hate it when the dollar is green, I love to see the dollar in red. I LOVE TO SEE THE COLOR OF BLOOD ON THE DOLLAR TICKER. that sounds evil, I want you to know though I am not evil. anyways have a good night here anyone who reads this, or have yourself a goodmorning if that is what you are awakening to. Actually is it that simple?? Can you just decide you are going to have a good moring, or a good day, or a good life??

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/christopheredmonds/1178935.htmlWinter cometh. Natural gas riseth.

That's been the mantra this week as natural gas prices skyrocketed on news that gas storage -- the amount of gas stockpiled for peak winter demand -- dropped just as the first cold spell of the season arrived.


Black Blade: Good article

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/numbersgame/1180653.htmlExcerpt from article at link

Oil prices have roughly tripled since the end of 1998. The U.S. has never experienced a price rise in oil of this magnitude without having a recession, yet personal consumption is still growing at an 8% rate and the consumer price index has only increased from 1.5% to 3.5% during this time.


Black Blade: But then we here at the forum already knew that.

I have studied weather from as long as I remember. I have very good news for you. I have just went through some long range wether stuff (Just in AVN model) All models including long range MRF are all proging a SERIOUS arctic front to come sweeping in dead into the heart of America in about 1 week. I have never seen then use the term "serious artcic front" (actually that is not the exact quote, but it is near to that, only more severe sounding. Maybe I will go back and check the weather discussion report and post it.

http://wrh.noaa.gov/afos/LAX/AFD/LAXAFDSAN I will start proof reading, sorry. I have had a few beer many, and had just had the chalice in my hand, and will again in a second. But anyway please go to this report fast cause I think It will change anytime and they may not discuss this feature. Scroll right to the last few words pretty much.

http://www.-atm.ucdavis.edu/`wxauto/fos/fxus/FXUS66.KSGX Hope this works

AAAAHHHHH sorry. Anyways, if you go to a NOAA weather station then you can check out long range forcast models, check out 6-10 day AVN, and MRF models. And if they have discussions check them. I am telling you it looks like next week, after sunday or so is going to be VERY COLD right where it needs to be and heading east. Shoot I wish I could go long some oil calls right now!

Palladium about to rocket through $850! Up $26.00 at $848.00! Pt is up a couple of bucks, and Au is still up $1.50. Interesting trading action. There are supposedly to be no Pd trades out of Russia next year even though Norilsk Nickel has the "right" to deliver. Guess what? They don't have much at all left! This action could get very extreme!

Rockgrabber: I am unable to access the link you provided, however, I am aware of the long range forecast for colder than normal weather this winter. There is a lot of demand for NG and lower storage levels. This could be interesting. Glad I got a wood-burning stove and a good supply of wood (mostly juniper). Going to get ugly this winter.

Yes gold is up 'in London', BUT! As we have all noticed, as soon as NY opens, the 'fraternity' slaps it down again. It is so obvious that NY is where the 'interference' lies.

We'll watch if it breaks with 'the norm' today.

I mean, 'they' could give us a break, we have earned a little excitement in our lives - a few dollars wouldn't be amiss. They have convinced us of their power to control market forces, so we all now it isn't going to be allowed to respond and take us all to 'seventh heaven'.

(p-s-st, I'm really trying to get a message to 'them' in case they just might read our postings)

Black Blade, yep its gonna get real ugly next week, I mean this is not your normal short cold snap being progged by the very latest models(last couple of days). Thickness levels are being shown at very low levels, and that translates to very cold weather. There has not been a cold snap with thickness levels progged this low for a long long time. Thanks for the articles, and links, and insight, here my freind.

AHAHHAA, I like that thought to. I like to think they see what is being said sometimes. I find it comforting I cant spell or puctuate well, cause it will make them read it and go.. "Holy Cow even an idiot is seeing what we are doing". Anyways, that is an entertaining thought, to think they might lay their evil eyes on this info

so we all 'now'........ Sorry 'now' is London accent for 'know'. (it was an error really - sorry, again) I am getting so careless, but then, I have only just got up - weather miserable outside. But, a few dollars on the up side in NY would make the sun shine in London.

I am off to bed to hopefully awaked to a taking off gold price in New York in a couple of hours, but I wait ready to be disapointed. AT least the dollar is now down about half a cent again tonight, that little debt burdened dollar had better be carefull if it wants to test suppot level right now around this area, it may not hold up. aahh I am just saying what I hope for.

Pd supersonic (I'm running out of adjectives) - up $46.00 at $868.00! and Pt up $9.00 at $620.00! Au still hanging tough with a $1.40 increase. Also, crude oil starting to show some life. S&P Futures are up +2.10, however, other indices futures are lower. Could get very interesting at the open in NY.

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

"From March 10 to November 25, the Bloomberg Internet Index of 280 stocks lost $2 trillion in market capitalization, more than twice its current value of $912 billion"
�Elliott Wave Theorist, Dec. 1, 2000
"Now, with PETS.COM shuttered and its stock selling for 25 cents, a 98% decline, Barron's reports that the only living vestige of the firm is an email that treats recipients 'to the image of a sock puppet snorting lines of cocaine through a rolled-up bill.' In our opinion, this image is no match for that of the stuffy PhD academics who assured us all in national newspapers that the boom will never cease. They weren't snorting cocaine but something far worse: a heady mix of ignorance, arrogance and extrapolation."
�Elliott Wave Theorist, Dec. 1, 2000

Totally in the "what if" catagory:-
As we are all aware, the USD is regarded by many here as well and truly beyond it use-by-date.
We've also discussed 3rd way Politics where "us-n-them" 2 party systems are constantly at loggerheads on the surface but in reality both are being directed by third parties who call the shots.
As the US election is of no (direct) interest to me, I have refrained from commenting (as it should be) however a nagging thought keeps tickling the hairs on the back of my neck, so here goes:-
What if TPTB have concocted this whole election fiasco as a prelude to USD/equity/ meltdown?
That way all the "blame" can be squarely sheeted away "internally" thus avoiding unacceptable repercussions on a Global scale.
Perhaps the George/AL dual Presidency notion as posted earlier looks more likely as a 3rd way solution.

Utilities: Residential bills jumped 50% in November, with more hikes expected. Businesses fare even worse.

By NANCY RIVERA BROOKS, Times Staff Writer

California's summertime electricity blues have given way to a winter of energy discontent as the biggest natural gas bills in recent memory begin landing in mailboxes around the state. Consumers are being hit with increases on their November gas bills of 50% on average, with heftier bills expected for December and January. Businesses have been slammed even harder. It already is worse than predicted; in the last few days the state's three big gas utilities have boosted their estimates of just how bloated average winter natural gas bills will become. And it could get worse still, particularly if the weather turns colder than forecast.

Michael and Mary Berbae were stunned when they opened the gas bill for their Dana Point condo last week: It soared by 128% from the month before--and they were out of the country much of the time. "Thank God I know how to make a good martini," quipped Michael Berbae, a floral designer. "You have to do something to keep your sense of humor."

Business owners are faced with either absorbing the higher costs or passing them on to consumers through price hikes. "It has been a horrible energy year," said Jim Stephenson, vice president of finance for Clougherty Packing Co., which produces Dodger Dogs and other Farmer John brand meats at a landmark mural-covered factory in Vernon. "We're trying to hold the line on prices, but it's very difficult" because the company's energy costs have doubled, he said. Blame it on a big jump in the wholesale price of natural gas, a commodity that was partly deregulated a decade ago without the anguish seen recently in the electricity industry. A similar supply-and-demand crunch, compounded by a deadly pipeline explosion in August, has reached this once-cheap commodity. As a result, natural gas bills are soaring because retail rates are no longer controlled by regulators. Some argue that it shows the free market's failure. Allegations of market abuse are flying. "The rates are incredible. We're seeing a real failure in the deregulation of the gas transmission system," said Michael Shames, executive director of the Utility Consumers' Action Network. The San Diego-based watchdog group has been a vocal critic of electricity deregulation, and with natural gas rates following in the footsteps of last summer's electricity spikes, "I feel like a broken record already," Shames said.

Seventy percent of the energy used in the average California home is natural gas, and more than 90% of the homes in the state are heated with natural gas. Commercial and industrial customers use even more natural gas than residential customers. On a typical residential bill, the cost of natural gas itself accounts for about one-third of the total. The rest is composed of charges for long-distance transmission, local distribution and metering, among other things. Southern California Gas, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas & Electric don't profit from the higher price of natural gas, they merely bill users for the price they paid. That price has leaped during the last several weeks. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for January delivery hit a record $6.73 per million British thermal units on Thursday before settling at $6.589 per million BTU--more than double the price a year ago.

But the price that most of California's industrial and commercial users pay--the price for natural gas at the California border--has jumped as much as sixfold in the last year. In the last few days, gas at the California-Arizona border has traded at unprecedented levels, above $20 per million BTU, compared with about $3 per million BTU a year ago.

Some of the price increase was expected because the supply of natural gas has lagged behind the demand, thanks to the booming economy and the heavy use last summer by California power plants, nearly all of which burn natural gas. In addition, an explosion in August along a major New Mexico pipeline supplying California, run by El Paso Natural Gas, killed 12 people and sharply reduced supplies to California for several weeks.

There also have been allegations of market abuse. The California Public Utilities Commission has accused El Paso Natural Gas of driving up prices by withholding capacity on the pipeline, the result of a contract awarding a large portion of the pipeline's capacity to an affiliate company, El Paso Merchant Energy. Houston-based El Paso, in filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has denied the allegations. Utilities have been warning customers through advertisements and mailings to expect to pay more this winter, promoting level pay plans and weatherization programs to help ease the blow. But even the best estimates by the utilities have fallen short as natural gas costs have continued to surge.

Southern California Gas Co., a subsidiary of San Diego-based Sempra Energy, had been telling customers that a typical monthly residential bill would rise to about $70 this winter from about $50 last winter. The utility this week bumped the winter estimate up to about $80 a month. Similarly, SDG&E raised its estimate to the low $70s, and PG&E residential customers are looking at about $77. Bills in the rest of the country are also on the rise, though not as sharply as in California. Still, natural gas residential bills in the Midwest will average $163 a month this winter, up 44% from last winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Chula Vista retirees Jim and Beverly Tesh, who endured a summer of shocking electricity bills in the nation's first fully deregulated power market, tried to control their gas bill by shivering, then donning extra sweaters before finally firing up their furnace on Nov. 20. "All of a sudden reality comes along and it spanks you," said Jim Tesh, who estimates that his gas costs have doubled since the beginning of the year. "Our first concern was electricity, and now we find gas is consuming us," said Tesh, 70, who dreams of installing a solar-powered system for all of his household's energy needs. "Right now, it doesn't pencil out, but there is an aspect of being able to thumb your nose at the powers that be that I find very appealing." High gas prices also are helping to keep the price of electricity up in California.

Swollen natural gas bills on top of huge electricity tabs are causing a budget crisis among big commercial, industrial and municipal users who, along with the California Energy Commission, did not foresee this latest staggering leap in prices, said Frederick H. Pickel, vice president of Tabors, Caramanis & Associates, an energy consulting firm based in Cambridge, Mass. "It will be a severe financial challenge for most entities," Pickel said. "At the moment, they are just gasping, but it will show up in prices once they get a chance to re-price their products." Los Angeles County, a big buyer of natural gas for its offices, hospitals and jails, recently increased its natural gas budget by half to cover higher fuel costs.

Lucy's LaundryMarts Inc. has pioneered a superstore kind of coin-operated laundry in the competitive Southern California market, complete with Starbucks, banking services and entertainment among the washers and dryers. But Lucy's has halted its aggressive expansion plans because of the unexpectedly high energy costs, said Robert Pardo, senior vice president of business development for the 27-store Torrance-based chain. "We were creating jobs, and now we're not going to open any more until we know how this will affect our profit margins," Pardo said. Energy is one of the biggest expenses for coin-operated laundries, where natural gas is used to heat the wash water and dry the clothes. "We're trying to think of ways to handle it," Pardo said. "The most obvious way is to pass it on to customers, but our customers are very price sensitive, and we'd hate to do that."

Black Blade: Welcome to the real world. Just wait until it hits hard in the rest of the US.

Pd is now up +50.00 at $870.00, and Au is getting a bit lively - now +$2.10.

Yeah yeah! I just KNOW you're loaded up on PGM's.
While I sit here glaring contemptuously at my little pile of Au-n-Ag. "DO SOMETHING YOU MOTHERS" I scream!
Think I'll go and kick the Dog!

Dollar headed for 113.
Don't forget to throw some gold coins in the red buckets.
April gold 300
no advice,
have a nice day.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=EUR&t=USDHope I'm not the only one writing letters to fund managers today...Reference posts # 42818 & 42819...Sorry about the double post.

It looks like from the above URL U.S. dollars are being exchanged for Euro's in a big way, at this hour.(up about 4 cents) Isn't this what FOA/ANOTHER predicted?
One ounce Gold is now $306.61 in Euro's.
We watch together.....beesting.

G'day Mate! Don't despair, Au is getting a bit frisky this morning too. Looks like a rough start for Goldman's, JP Morgan, and Duestche Bank. S&P Futures have gone negative along with the other indices. The Euro is chasing the US Dollar and even the Canadian Peso lower. Gold is also being chased higher now up +$2.70. Getting very testy prior to the open. The Working Groups on Financial Markets (PPT) have their work cut out for them today. Today could be the day that the PM's break loose and fly.

Source: BridgeNewsBy Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNews

Tokyo--Dec. 4--Spot gold was supported by the strength of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar Monday in Asia in moderate trading, dealers said. Gold is expected to consolidate in the range of U.S. $268-272 per ounce in the near term, with market sentiment turning marginally bullish. Platinum and Palladium prices stood steady in quiet trading. The strength of the Australian dollar against the greenback triggered buying of gold by Australian sources despite of selling by other Asia-based players, dealers in Hong Kong said. The selling was not aggressive, they added. Gold prices moved at a range of $269.50-270.50 per ounce for much of Asian trading, according to dealers. As gold prices have stayed around $270 over the past few days, some players turned to be slightly bullish on gold prices in the near term, dealers noted. Other bullion players, however, continued to be afraid that selling by central banks and producers will still cap price rises, they added.

Although platinum and palladium futures of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rose to hit their daily limit ups Monday, trading in the spot market remained thin, dealers in Hong Kong said. In Japan, spot platinum and palladium rose on light buying by Japanese players Monday after surging last week caused by fears of Russia's shaky supplies, spot Japanese dealers told. "For Russia's supplies, no Japanese buyers have so far heard of any information about 2001 shipment under long-term contract," an analyst in Japan said.
TOCOM participants bought TOCOM platinum futures aggressively Monday on strong spot prices, TOCOM dealers said. Some of the TOCOM participants rushed to cover part of their platinum short positions and opened fresh long positions, they noted. TOCOM palladium also rose to reflect strong prices in the spot market, they said, while trading of the futures remained thin.

I have read Mr. Butler's articles; he is very bullish on silver but is he correct?

Yes I am purchasing silver (and a little gold) these days because I believe that they are undervalued. I suppose many others are buying due to lack of supply, ie: supply/demand deficits.

I frequent a few photography outlets (business related but not in a photographic sense) and I met a cagey and old cranky character a couple months ago. Apparently he lost his shirt during the '80's and '90's speculating in silver.
I feel he was in bad timing but he maintains the recycling of the silver processing solution and the digital process will keep silver contained for a long time.

In 1998 and 1999 I bought a significant amount of gold. I guess I was a 'goldcollector' but one thing that concerns me is that gold is not consumed and I am a little (maybe moderately) concerned about confiscation if gold were to explode. After the Y2K rollover I switched to silver, it I believe has the exact opposite concerns mentioned above.

In either case, gold or silver, there seems to be alot of conflicting information regarding inventories. From my previous post, maybe the inventories are not a huge concern. Perhaps one should be more concerned with the global nervousness and WOW, NG breaks $7.00 (compliments of BB this am).

SC

....the currency war succeeds in : 1 US$ = 1 EURO = 100 YEN
POG looses dollar decline support. More mines go bust. Gold must be heavely promoted and supply/demand balanced.
Today only 40% of total mining is profitable.

DUBYA, DUBYA DUBYA DUBYA, DUMP THE DOLLAR, BUY GOLD

Source: Dow Jones
By Jamie McGeever

Of Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Boosted by a flurry of buying ahead of the holiday season and potential supply disruptions from Russia, platinum and palladium are trading at fresh highs in Europe Monday, and could sail further into uncharted waters as the session progresses, observers say. Not wanting to be caught short of material over the Christmas and New Year period, industrial users, mainly auto companies and electronics manufacturers, have been forced to scramble for material in recent days as prices have started to rocket. And together with the apparent return of speculative players and lack of ready sellers, further gains are likely. "It's been last minute Christmas shopping from the industrials ahead of possible supply problems from our Russian friends," said Ross Norman, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. Russia is the world's number one palladium producer and second largest platinum producer.

At the Monday morning fixing in London, platinum came in at $623 a troy ounce, a 12.5-year high, while palladium was fixed at an all-time high of $875/oz. Current spot prices show that platinum has edged up to $625/oz, considered a tough resistance level, and palladium to $880/oz. A convincing break through these levels at the afternoon fixing in London Monday could spark another price spiral upward. "The PM fix will be very, very interesting," said Norman, noting that the vast bulk of European PGM trade goes through the daily afternoon fixings. "The PGMs continue to soar and (are) likely to go further," said Rhona O'Connell, analyst at Canaccord Capital in adaily research note Monday. Market sources say platinum could test its 20-year high of $850/oz, while palladium could reach $1,000/oz in a matter of days or even hours.

Japanese Selling Possible, But No Collapse Seen

Until last week, the rise in prices had been steady, in part due to the gradual withdrawal of speculators following the imposition earlier this year of trading restrictions on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange futures markets. But the sharp climb in the last week has led some to believe that speculators may be returning. "I'd be very surprised if it was the industrials themselves pushing it (the price) up to these levels on their own," said a precious metals strategist in London.

Japanese investors on Tocom still hold a large platinum long position of around 350,000 ounces, around half what it was only a few months ago. More stale long liquidation is likely, especially with the yen weakening to Y112 against the dollar Friday for the first time since August last year, but there are others keen to add to these positions. "I don't see any large-scale or net selling until prices stabilize," said the precious metals strategist, echoing Norman's belief that some profit taking won't be enough to precipitate a collapse in prices. Other than the Japanese stale longs or players hoping to take profits quickly, there are few obvious selling sources. Russian platinum stocks are thought to be extremely low, miners in the world's number one platinum producer South Africa are running at full capacity, and there is even talk that heavy rains in the Johannesburg region have hampered output in recent weeks.

Black Blade: What have I been telling ya? Russian stockpiles are low? - Try non-existent!

It's cold in them there hills.

Now that we solidly went through Pd at $850.00 with such ease, perhaps Pd at $990.00+ wouldn't be so difficult, and Pt at $750.00. I wonder how SWC and PAL with do today? There are no more coming out of Russia for a very long time, maybe years! Gold and Silver got to be under pressure, and difficult for the Bullion Bankers to keep under much longer, especially with the severe pressure on the US Dollar (soon to be peso-ized!).

"Gold is pale because
it has so many thieves
plotting against it"

(Diogenes)

I guess 'they' did read my posting. They did not knock it down (yet), they actually let it go up. So they do have a human touch. Then it could be a mere cruel sense of humour. God is a bit that way, at times. O0-oops, perhaps it is God' or is it that they actually believe THEY ARE God.

There is so much we don't know, and never will. Perhaps it's as well. Let us be thankful for small mercies (but pray for BIG ones and chant our mantras)

Singapore (Platts)--1Dec2000

Gold demand in India for November was up about 5% at 10.5mt, compared with 10mt in November 1999, a Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) official said Dec 1. "Demand has been fairly stable in the past weeks due to wedding festivities," an Indian trader said. But the trader expects demand to fall from mid-December to January 2001. "Indian demand is affected by seasonal factors and religious beliefs," the BBA official said.

The country's total gold demand in January-September stood at 622.9mt, down 5% from 655.4mt in the same period 1999. "There has been major droughts this year, farmers do not have surplus to invest in gold," the BBA official added. But the trader expects retailers to start stocking up soon for the upcoming active season from January-March 2001.

Black Blade: No woman is going to turn down gold! Love that wedding season.

NG still going up!

Natural Gas 7.23 +0.557 +8.35 %
Heating Oil 1.005 +0.0342 +3.52 %
Crude Oil 32.4 +0.38 +1.19 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.831 +0.0067 +0.81 %

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/vanEedenGold.htmlCourtesy of author Paul van Eeden and theMiningweb.com, we are pleased to bring you this commentary, "Understanding Gold" which we hope you will find useful in building better perspectives for the positive investment potential to be found within the gold market. Click the link above to see the whole article. A brief glimpse of what you will find there is as follows...

"Understanding the gold price, why it is where it is, why it declined by 40% from February 1996 to August 1999, why the gold industry got slaughtered and why the hedge funds made out like bandits, requires us to look at several aspects of gold and the gold market.

"As you will see there is no conspiracy against gold. The major decline in the gold price did not occur because of central bank sales or producer hedging, as many people believe. Instead, a proper analysis of the gold market, and an understanding of foreign exchange markets with the role played by derivatives, sheds light on the real factors that determine the gold price.

"These are not necessarily complicated matters as even enormous markets yield to basic economic principles. The research that underlies this article shows [among others] that:

* gold is money, it always has been and furthermore, gold has not lost its value as store of wealth

* if the dollar devalues, as this paper suggests it will, the dollar denominated gold price should soar

"...It is obvious that the physical gold market is absolutely dwarfed by the size of the derivatives market for gold. It is logical and inevitable that the derivatives market, not the physical market, determines the price of gold. The key to understanding the gold price is to understand what drives the price of gold in the derivatives market."

Dollar is down over a cent this morning. YES! I have not seen the dolar under 114 for a while but do see it right now.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlBe sure to check out the latest special on-line offer we launched late last week (see link above). Our featured Coin of the "Month" (our previous Swiss offer sold out in only two weeks!) is the rare Swedish 20 Kronor gold coin featuring Oscar II, a talented ruler who was both a writer and a musician. This is the very first time Centennial has offered this hefty gold coin. Tipping the scales at an impressive 0.2593 troy ounces of fine gold content, these brilliant uncirculated specimens are not only beautiful to behold, they are veritable "manhole covers" among their smaller brethren of European pre-1933 gold coinage.

And not to be missed is our *FLASH* offer of Dutch Kings. These handsome Ten Guilder gold coins from The Netherlands feature the more rare King Willem, and will make a nice companion to the more common 10 Guilder Dutch Queens (Wilhemina) that you probably already own in your gold portfolio. They make a nice memento from the same country that brought us the lasting lesson of the Tulipmania.

These uncirculated Dutch Kings are priced to move for this FLASH offer, so act quickly to buy one or buy them all--Centennial has secured a small cache of 500, and we have clientele capable of buying the whole offer should they so choose. Given all that, these Dutch coins are likely to be "Here today...gone in a FLASH!"

Orders will be filled first come, first served on both offers. Feel free to mix and match!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2000/12/04/158.htmlMegatron, I would like to offer a counterpoint thought to your comment yesterday in which you concluded, " A person who made 5 cents since 1980 in futures is ahead of ANYONE who bought and held gold."

A common misconception, and such a false sense of security can arise for ANYONE who fails to appreciate that the world is larger than the geographic area one is shown during any given American weather forecast. Very often, perspectives regarding "ahead" and "behind" is dictated by the shoes being worn, and which trail is being traveled (and for which reason.) Look here for a clear demonstration of this principle from today's Associated Press...
---
HEADLINE: Ukraine Expects 25 Percent Inflation

KIEV, Ukraine - The Ukrainian government expects that annual inflation this year will significantly exceed its previous forecast of 15.9 percent but will not pass 25 percent, a top government official said Monday. . . . . Annual inflation in Ukraine has fallen sharply since 1994, when it skyrocketed to more than 10,000 percent.
---
I trust my point requires no further elaboration than that.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html"I was looking around the site tonight and noticed the Christmas decorations on the home page. Well done!"

If you liked the current festive look of the Home Page, you will surely like the link above in which we pulled out all the stops...complete with a holly background.

And anyone visiting our Daily Market Report (w/ Live News) page will get a nice flavor of the holiday season, too!

Simply click the link at the top of this page that resembles this:

(Daily Market Report)

or else paste this URL into your browser's address window for the latest currency, economy, and precious metals news around the clock...

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtmlNG still moving higher

Natural Gas 7.35 +0.677 +10.15 %
Heating Oil 1.0115 +0.0407 +4.19 %
Crude Oil 32.65 +0.63 +1.97 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.831 +0.0067 +0.81 %


PM's still holding in positive territory

I see NYMEX has halted NG trading. I love it!!

My wife, kids and I spent an enjoyable week in PEI and NS this past summer. Since we were camping, I can't give you a list of reco'd accommadations, however; I can tell you what we found there. We left Maine for Fredericton, NB where I had business and then traveled to PEI across the bridge. It was summer and we did visit Cavendish beach. Although both categories of scenary were attractive I much prefer a summer day on the New Jersey shore for bikini peeking. (Slap to the head from my wife). From PEI we traveled back through N.B. and drove to the Joggins Cliffs for some fossil hunting. This was a childhood fantasy of mine that I finally fulfilled. I was rewarded by finding two large fossilized tree trunks (some kind of fern things I guess but two distinctly different types. Alas they were too large to carry. We then took a drive west to Cape Chignecto where we visited some local shellfish (lobster & scallop)fishermen who were particularly peeved at the Provincial govt for raising the licence fees for scalloping by some 600%. The trip along the harbor in the morning found fishing boats aground at low tide and the same boats afloat around early afternoon. It made for some great Bay of Fundy camera shots. First there is no water, then there is. Our morning was spent high atop the viewpoint overlooking the tidal race near the lighthouse. Wow, you can just feel the surge of power there as the tide wraps around the cape. Impressive! As the tide was turning we had ventured out into some shallow sea caves below the point. We were impressed with the speed at which the tide rose and a mad scramble ensued over slippery seaweed covered rocks to get back to the beach before we became trapped there. Great heart pumping excitement and action for the kids. We can all swim but the water was a bit cool. Short on time we then traveled back up to NB and home. The ferry fare being too dear for a run to Yarmouth via Halifax. Gold wise, I believe the headquarters for Scotia bank of Scotia-Mocatta fame is there. Would have loved to travel to cape Breton Highlands though with sad regret we mosey'd back home to the Philadelphia area. Highly reco NS as a sight seeing venue. Visited Peggy's Cove (fantastic rocks for kids to play with)below Halifax when I was a child with my family as my Mom was an artist of sorts and had to do a pilgrimage to the lighthouse there. It was then that my childhood heart was broken when we realized how far it was to the Joggins cliffs and didn't get there. We rode across form Portsmouth to Yarmouth on the old "Bluenose" when rates were a bit more affordable.

The gift page is beautifully done. Makes it look a bit drab around here though. Maybe you can find something for the roundtable?
:-)
$hifty

NG HAULTED bacause of LIMIT UP!!!

http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtmlCavan Man, I would say "Don't miss PEI", but it's been 20 years since my fond memories were formed. Family connections helped. Saw a church built by my great-great-grandfather. Headstones a-many. My grandfather still owned a lot in Summerside into the 30's. One of my fantasies is to visit and find it was never transferred, just forgotten, and now it's mine! It helps to think of us as still Canadian, at certain sometimes, eh?

Some commodities action, huh? I'm gonna go downstairs and turn off the gas heater, right now. It's the orange juice that's gonna bankrupt me, however. I'm really spoiled over that fresh stuff.

Why couldn't TPTB have targeted NG or PD or OJ or something besides AU? Always standing last in line, it feels like.

Whatever energy source is the shortage of the week, each one puts pressure on the supply of the others as users seek the cheaper alternative. Industrial users look for conversion options, and residential consumers eventually �shop with their feet' by relocating to warmer (or hydro- electric) climes.

Telecommuting will expand exponentially as fuel for travel is shed and the home space that is heated by day when vacant, becomes used instead of the heated (or air-conditioned) office. Expansion of B to B and drop shipping of online retail, cuts down on heated warehouse space, propane for fork lifts etc. While some E-commerce has been market saturated, there will be a second wave of expansion as society turns to the Web for energy-free functions and alternatives.

"Necessity is the mother of invention" because necessity motivates change.

Meanwhile, on the supply front, wind generation is now cost competitive and the current 1% now being supplied is expected to soon double. Both administrations are strongly in favor of tax incentives to build facilities. That figure could now be exceeded as peoples resistance to "unsightly" wind mill farms should melt away as the energy price explosion alters their relative importances.

Having said all that, it seems at the present moment that the NG crises could be the trigger for the bursting of the Market, Debt and Dollar bubbles

Did you get my re-e-mail?

$hifty

Yes, I have electric resistance Heat and the associated rate. Limerick has both units crackling away just up the street (downwind and at least 10 miles as the crow flies). I rarely use the resistance bank though...the heat pump works well with my abundant insulation down to 20 degrees at which time (yes now) my healthy woodstove supplies enough supplemental heat to keep the place cozy. Healthy woodstove? The draw of a small quantity of fresh air through the garage door from the flue keeps my radon levels way down.

If you're going to tell me I'm making a gambling, ah, that is "investment" error, tell me ahead of time. I don't need to know what I SHOULD have done -- even an about-to-retire politician or bureaucrat can tell me that!

Give me some market records of what happened over the last twenty years and I'll show you how you could have started with one dollar and run it up to a trillion or two!

The problem is anticipating the future successfully -- and Yogi and Mises not withstanding, doing so AHEAD OF TIME. AND not making the mistake of assuming that just because it happened that way last time, it will continue to happen that way now. (It COULD of course!)

Gambling is ALWAYS a matter of PERCIEVED PROBABILITIES. If there are any exceptions to this, it's in purely symbolic games like card games, craps, or roulette where all the outcomes are "digital" and relatively limited in comparison to the virtually unlimited outcomes in the "real world" casinos. Thus, if you know what you're doing, it's much safer to gamble in the casino than in the markets.

None the less even in the safety of casino gambling there are "externalities." There are biased roulette wheels and there are marked cards and loaded dice. There are casinos who don't have enough money to cash in your winning chips.

Megatron, in your assumptions that people who bought and held gold lost, you're making many subliminal sub-assumptions. Let me suggest a few of them:

1. People will sell their gold now. (They need not, in comparison to futures players who have a time limit and thus their anticipations of the future must include correct timing.)

2. Additionally you are assuming gold is destined to continue to drop in price (below the cost of production by the way) and so it would be BETTER if the gold holders sold NOW. (If you're holding options, do you give up and ditch them anytime the trend line goes against you? Then again, you're up against that time limit, and infact that plays a much stronger role in options prices than in holding the underlying doesn't it?)

3. And more importantly, you're assumning that a futures player has made all the right moves over the last twenty years, that is, that the futures player has an edge, even after subtracting the "vig" (the cost of making his bets). That is, over all those trades, forced by expiration deadlines, your are assuming the futures player has had and maintained an edge for twenty years -- including paying the vig. And all the taxes -- if you volunteer to pay them.

The fact that he risks only a small portion of his bankroll on any trade is good but not sufficient -- a punter (gambler) who bets this way against the house edge in, say, roulette will go broke more slowly than one who bets a large percentage of his bank roll at a time -- but he'll still go broke. (An interesting view: Casino bets, like futures bets, all have expiration dates. Particularly they expire at the end of each event -- the ball stops in double-zero, the dealer takes his last hit card, etc.)

Our propensity to fool ourselves is boundless. An older friend of mine, let's call him "Jerome," was completely sure he had an edge using a betting progression vs. roulette. He'd thought it over and over and no matter how I tried to explain it to him, it was subtle enough that he could insist I was wrong. He wasn't the first. About 30 years ago, the guy who inadvertantly got me involved in gambling did so by showing me a very similar progression. It took me several days to understand and explain why it wouldn't work -- and he didn't believe me either --- BECAUSE IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO RUN INTO THE STRING OF EVENTS THAT WIPES YOU OUT. That is, you can play this progression for a long time, apparently winning, before you have to bet so much you lose everything, including your original bank roll.

A successful punter in any game must have an edge, and often even folks who think in terms of "perceived edge" discover in retrospect the "perceived edge" doesn't really exist in reality.

Which brings me to record keeping. These are a major tool to keep us from fooling ourselves. Do you have comprehensive records of your futures plays, Megatron? I don't say this to be cruel, and, I suspect, if you have been successful long term, you can tell me such things as what your total win over your carreer is, what your total carreer action has been (the total of all your futures bets) and thus, what your over-all edge has been. Also you can probably tell me how much you've paid in "vig." Actually, I'm not asking. I would be interested in your overall edge, however?? That wouldn't reveal your more sensitive figures -- which could come back to haunt you in an audit.

Show me a gambler who doesn't keep meticulous records and I'll show you a gambler who turns out either a loser or a drop-out, depending whether or not his perceived edge is real or not. Jerome claimed he was winning for several years. One day I asked him why he still had his day job and he finally confessed. He'd lost big. Why he lost is clear; the house has an edge in roulette.

One reason why even a gambler with an edge often drops-out if he doesn't keep records is because he won't ever reach the point where he KNOWS his perceived edge is real (an edge is usually quite small and subtle and fluctuations, especially large and "unusual" ones will devestate him emotionally.) If one big one happens early in a carreer, it it's downwards, this wipes the less experienced out emotionally. We need all the help we can get in dealing with this.

(On the other hand and worse, if it's an unusual UPWARD fluctuation -- and he/she DOESN'T have an edge, it sometimes takes abject poverty over extended periods of time to correct the mistake.)

But some of the real questions for futures punters is "Will the casinos you play in either 1. Change the rules on you mid-stream, 2. Will there be a problem when you go to the cage to cash out your chips. And if paid honestly, 3. will the dollars you get paid in depreciate so much they wipe out all your previous wins (in terms of reduced buying power)?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Megatron, don't mean to put you on the spot. You're, in my opinion, a valuable contributer here and I don't want to make you uncomfortable. On the other hand, if you've been following the forum for awhile, you know it includes many of the 90% who shouldn't be playing -- and they have been suffering. I owe it to them to try and help them sort this out if I can. Your posts gave me the excuse! Thanx!!

Affirmative, pretty gruesome.

Just been announced that The US supremes sent the Case back to the Florida Court for "further proceedings"

I have to admit, I must raise my hand.

"The gift page is beautifully done. Makes it look a bit drab around here though. Maybe you can find something for the roundtable?"

What?? I suffer frozen hands building two nice snowmen to greet you at the top of the page, and you insist on more?

OK. I will reach into Santa's bag of goodies and see if I can manage to hang a bell (or something else appropriate) under our bright blue sky...that is, if it is generally felt by those gathered here that I am capable of doing such a task objectively and without selling my soul or tossing my principles into a Dumpster brand waste disposal unit. (I ask this, though I trust that one certain poster's recent vocal outbursts of youthful ignorance, inexperience, and arrogance are not expressive of the commonly-held perceptions of my role here, and particularly of the validity of the information I bring forward.)

Randy

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20001204/news/current/tice.htx?source=htx/http2_mwMarket commentator David Tice provides a good reality check at CBS.MarketWatch today.

He writes, "...it must be awfully tempting for investors to see their former tech favorites selling for what appear to be bargain prices. But before blindly buying the dip, investors should at least consider that the worst might not yet be over. To assist with that exercise, the following bearish points are presented:"

HEADLINE: Ten bearish points Wall Street won't tell you

You'll want to visit this link to scan this overview. Here is point #10 to whet your appetite:

10. "The end of a mania typically results in investors giving back much of their gains. If we are correct in calling the stock market of late a true "mania" (as opposed to a cyclical bull market), the downside from here could be much greater than most investors expect."

Thanks for the good work, David.

Randy

I saw those little snow men with a real blizzard going on in the background.There nice but too small. Put your mittens on and go for a Big One! (Big Smile)

$hifty

http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.htmlHmmm..This looks like a partial strain on IMF funds, I wonder which peg will fall next?

Mine hand is up too. Long in silver, corn and cotton also.
Mr. Journeyman, you're right in thinking there are many who should not gamble in Vegas casinos or in commodity options or in equities markets. Very few who do really know what's going on, especially in the stock market. How many who own stocks do you think actually researched the company they invested in? Or even know what qualifications (if any) their fund manager has? The challange in commodities is to be in that 10% that you speak of. With enough hard fundamental work (research) and adequate knowledge of technical analysis, do you think membership into that 10% is possible?
To say that people should beware because the game is costly for those unprepared is admirable. I wouldn't say the game should not be played just because there are more losers than winners, only one team of all who make the NFL playoffs, wins the superbowl.
When POG adjusts higher, both physical holders and futures' market players will dance together. IMHO, of course.
Rich

Those criminals on the floor, I thought the dxh would hit 113.00 today, what creeps

should start to enter the gold market tonite and tomorrow.

I've seen it written that blackjack is the only game with a possible edge, and then only if they can't tell you're counting (so you have to throw some back to them) and if you get your betting progressions right. Long, hard work. Me, I can't stand to be around all that smoke.

Can you tell me why in Poker, the person with the biggest pot o' dough can't just raise everyone else into folding?

The only winning system I tried was in horses, which a professor in Vancouver developed. You'd play against crowd psychology (and the track's 18% vig) by assuming their research on the likely Win was correct, but if ratios for Show and occasionally Place were over a certain level, you'd run to the window and bet against the crowd's UNDERselection of those choices. About three races in nine qualified. I made $35 one day, $50 another. Boring.

I'm not a gambler. (Except just by living, like all of us.)

Oh, yeah, and one time with silver futures from the fraudulent "American Board of Trade" (up in Al F's neck of the woods, Al -- are you OK?). As I was driving cross-country to move West in 1984, stopping at pay phones to meet my margin calls. Yecch! Minus 4-5000 only.

Can anyone tell me that the first time they learned about OPTIONS, part of them did not think "Oh boy! Leverage is the EASY way to make money. How CLEVER I am, getting ahead of the pack this way!" I think that's the hook that gets everyone. Irresistable, for awhile.

Nothing to do with Saving, or Wealth. Merely paying for entertainment, once you do the Math.

You say ability, time, will, and understanding to live like that.

I suppose that we all have the same allotment of time in a day, so it becomes a matter of priorities, and since I want to spend my time on those things that are important to me, the will is part and parcel of that. I think ability has a small bit of validity, but in my experience, most people can accomplish almost anything they set their minds to. We have all heard stories of "low IQ" people who accomplished great things, so mostly I would see ability as patience and interest in a particular subject. In my own case I started out climbing the corpoate ladder from an accounting/computer base. Did pretty well at it too. Had a certain (major) distain for most things "artsy". 20 years ago I got interested in a subject that was only taught, in my area, at an art college. (hot glass) In the process, absorbed some art "through the skin", and now I am into some manifestations of "art", and now some people call me an artist.
Understanding, Yes, but often understanding comes after the fact, so it may not be a necessity.

An example; the latest Brou-ha-ha known as the US elections. If I were a US citizen, it wouldn't interest me much, because I know that no matter what the outcome, I would have about the same amount of money "stolen" from me, for about the same limited amount of services, and my life would be over-regulated to about the same extent. I would have an interest in HOW they managed this feat, but not the result.

That is because the massive forces at work, call it mother nature, or circumstances, or whatever, will prevail. The natural order of things is that we all die. Life consists of the daily putting off of the inevitable. Sure we have made great strides in medicine, which allows us to put off the inevitable for a time. Successful traders learn early that one trader cannot take on an large institution, and a large institution cannot win against a central bank, who in turn cannot overcome the broad marketplace. I think Journeyman might phrase it, "you cannot sucessfully buck the odds, indefinitely." (you can only win consistantly by choosing to fight on only those battlegrounds where you are likely to win, and refusing other battles)

I'm with silverCollecter when he says maybe we should be concerned with global nervousness. I usually call it confidence. Black Blade has some posts today, and often, that approach life in a way that I see as important. Sure he has an interest in "petroleum man", but he uses that interest to predict the ripple effect of, in this instance, the price of natural gas and how that will effect life, which in turn will ultimately effect the economy, which will in turn effect eg, the POG. To some extent we all struggle in this direction, but some seem more successful at it than others. I think that is why so many people find his posts interesting. The logic of his pronostications on the future seem to be based on things we instictively know to be powerful, and valid. Maybe his logic was faulty, or maybe he did not consider one or another influence, and his projections may not work out, but we can see the validity of this particular influence.

In my mind, one of the nicest complements ever paid me was to the effect that this person liked spending time with me because, "while you know where the mainstream is, mostly you choose not to be there."
One cannot really predict the future of the ecomony by watching the stock market. The market is a lagging indicator. Stock prices go up and down AFTER people have formed an opinion about the future, (and how the will allocate their assets) which is usually after they have seen evidence that the economy is going up or down. Today the early indicaters are saying that people are uneasy, and christmas sales are likely to be down. The economy is sputtering, and what is happening to stock prices? They are going down. I like to get back to the very basics, what are the forces at work, and what is their magnitude, so I can predict a probable ripple effect outcome. To do that, one has to stop watching the market, except as a confirmation of your forecast as to what will happen next, and get back to the simple things like mother nature, and the forces at work.

I suppose that is why I enjoy travelling through some of the stranger highways and byways of life. You get a much closer look at the soft underbelly of the world. And you gain insights as to why things work the way they do.

Regards
j'Bear

http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.htmlThanks for the link -- first I've read about Turkey's bank problems.

Always on the lookout for that CreditAnstalt moment... (and so is Greenie)

"How many who own stocks do you think actually
researched the company they invested in? Or even know
what qualifications (if any) their fund manager has?"
-R Powell msg#: 42898

In my experience, not many. Columnist Vin Suprynowicz tells of
an office party where he asked two women about their investments.
They said they were guaranteed to go up. He asked them what they
meant by that. They said, and apparently weren't kidding, "If
they go down we'll return the stocks and get our money back." Of
course that was right around the time an "investor" won a suit
from a stock broker claiming the broker took advantage because he
(the "investor") didn't understand the risks and therefore they
should give him his money back. Appalling -- but this sort of
thing explains the Brown & Co. Brokerage commercials!

"The challange in commodities is to be in that 10% that
you speak of. With enough hard fundamental work
(research) and adequate knowledge of technical
analysis, do you think membership into that 10% is
possible?" -R Powell msg#: 42898

One of the hardest things in a professional gambler's
(investor's) life is determining whether or not you have an edge.
In many symbolic gambling games, the determination is fairly
straight-forward because, especially with the advent of high-
speed computers, it can be calculated or simulated. (Simulation
is fraught with dangers, however, even in simple games. One of
the main problems with wider use of simulators in other areas is
they all start with ASS-U-ME-tions.)

I'm am one of those outsiders that Megatron mentions as far as
derivatives are concerned. I read Teweles and Jones classic "The
Futures Game" about seven years ago and things like the
Hieronymous Study (posted in yesterday's msg#: 42825) pretty much
decided me that it would take too much time, energy, and practice
money to make playing that game interesting. AND it's one of
those games where it is VERY difficult to be sure you have an
edge -- you could play for years and discover you were only
fooling yourself.

Further, I have friends and acquaintences who, usually with the
aid of computers, regularly beat "The Vegas Line" (and the Vegas
bookies) on college and pro basketball, football, and baseball.

Several of these well-financed groups have looked at the stock
market and options and two groups set up shop to try out their
approach. They both lost money and quit. These are sharp
people, and if they were unable to come up with a winning
algorithim, I doubt that I could.

Of course, back in the seventies and early eighties, Prof. Edward
O. Thorpe, who wrote "Beat the Dealer," (how to beat the game of
21) in 1967, studied stocks and learned to "Beat the Market"
(another of his books, if I remember). He became one of the
upstart market makers during this period and was most resented by
the establishment. Don't know what he's been doing since then.

I and my friends have puzzled over the difficulty of beating
markets, peopled largely with folks like the two ladies above.
But of course the folks who move the markets are the quants, the
REALLY big players who run funds, etc. Folks like Scholes and
Merriwether (LTCM.) Or Soros. Part of the problems with playing
against these guys is they not only play the markets, they can
MOVE the markets to their advantage and everyone else's
detriment.

The markets are games which are self-modifying. That is, you
have to be where everyelse is going before they get there, and
once enough people catch on to one tactic, it isn't profitable
anymore and the next trend, a different one, is hatched. And
this is all built on the vagaries of "real economy" supply and
demand -- but that's becoming less and less a factor other than
being one signal among the many which the players use to guide
them. By "hatched" I don't mean it's created by one or two
players through a conspiracy, though sometimes it is. It's just
that "something in the air" causes enough big hitters to go in
the same direction at the same time.

Thus the rules are constantly shifting and to win long term, you
have to "catch" the majority of these shifts in time to not lose.
It's not "insider trading" in the legal sense (though remember
there is what they're now calling on CNBC "legal insider
trading"), but it's somewhat "inside" in that, perhaps like X,
the guy who used to handicap pro football, "they" develop a
"feel" for where the aggregate market players are going to go.

From my viewpoint, it's just too hard to be sure you still have
an edge to make me comfortable playing these games. Of course
investing for dividends is a different animal.

"To say that people should beware because the game is
costly for those unprepared is admirable. I wouldn't
say the game should not be played just because there
are more losers than winners, only one team of all who
make the NFL playoffs, wins the superbowl." -R Powell
msg#: 42898

I agree in general. But in a certain sense, casino gambling --
and sports betting -- are not only safer and simpler than futures
gambling, they are also more "honest." Unlike most futures
gamblers, while a casino gambler imagines he will make money, he
doesn't really expect to. He's not at the casino primarily to
make money. He doesn't expect to make money, and usually he
doesn't modify his life style based on his expectation that he
will make money.

People who go into the futures markets, however, have the
expectation they will make money and in most cases, that's why
they're there. And judging from the comments of several posters
here -- and studies like the Hieronymous Study, 90% of them are
deluding themselves, and if they expect to make money and change
their lives based on that perception, they may do themselves
long-term financial damage, not to mention long term mental
anguish. I beleive Canamami yesterday was one of those. As was
the gambler who wrote the following e-mail posted by DaveC
(12/02/00; 10:25:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42688):

"And yes my gentle friends, the death is waiving its
evil vail in front of my eyes every time I look at the
streaming chart @ Quote.com. Just to say that because
of the unholly doings of the mighty Stock Market I had
to get a day job! The first in 2 years!! Can I live on
my savings? you may ask - NO, 'cause that's what I've
been doing for the past 8 months! and now... from
having $135,000 in January I went to living on
$2,000/month from the day job, with a $1,200 morgage &
a new BMW, all acquired in the .com explosion. Now, can
you say it's not death??!" -Day Trader Chat From Yahoo
Message Board, The Death came upon...., by: lolalita28
11/30/00 4:15 pm, Msg: 3 of 3

It is of course possible that some of the initial losers will
persevere and eventually join the 10% who are winners. No
problem if they can afford the time and money that education
costs them.

Of course, there will be some who are winners -- maybe. But I'd
like to see the stats of some of these long-term winning players.
I've seen too many people completely bamboozle themselves in my
life to take it on faith.

And given that your buying power has to be stored up somewhere -
- - - well, what are you doing here at this site??

"When POG adjusts higher, both physical holders and
futures' market players will dance together. IMHO, of
course." -R Powell msg#: 42898

Could be --- but do you know when? And will you be paid as per
the ORIGINAL contract? And will the dollars you're paid in in
lieu of the physical you may have been hoping for because "force
majuere" MAY HAVE been declared be an adaquate win after all the
time and money it's cost you to get into position?

I can't answer any of these questions, but I can suggest you
might want to ask them of yourself.

Regards,
Journeyman

"The markets are games which are self-modifying. That is, you have to be where everyone else is going before they get there, and once enough people catch on to one tactic, it isn't profitable anymore and the next trend, a different one, is hatched. And this is all built on the vagaries of "real economy" supply and demand -- but that's becoming less and less a factor other than being one signal among the many which the players use to guide them. "

There's the rub, and you've here stated the dilemma.

Most useful things in life, we hope to learn -- once -- and then move on to other things, using our previous learning to build upon. And Life itself is a process of "Learning How to Learn." That is essential to being a growing human, rather than a stagnant lump.

But learning how to ace markets, as you've described, mimics and perhaps replaces Life itself. You can't just learn one useful system, and then move on to other areas of YOUR life, with your market wins supporting you. For the market writes a new game every couple years or so, therefore;\: (1) You have to make market study your Life's work, in order not to waste what you learned two years back, or fall behind others as quick and smart as you're trying to be (2) You have to learn it correctly and have dagnabbity good intuition, too, and (3) You may only land marginally within the 10% of winners after all that effort -- and not really earning a very good living.

(Gambling is easier, as you point out. They don't change Blackjack's rules or odds every few years.)

Living for the Market becomes a counterfeit life, unless that's all you care to do in your life.

FOA's words about gold and the end of the dollar are about the (temporary?) end of such gaming. All the games played out. Start over.

People around the world who've never gotten anywhere near our (abstract, derivative-driven) Market Games believe in gold, to be-jewel their daughters, and buy seed for their rice crops. That's something I'd trust more than the faces I see on those New York market minutes.

Your last two posts have been on the mark from my viewpoint, Mr Gresham!

Poker, including much psychology in addition to symbolic content ("digital" cards), is probably the closest analog to markets -- though not THAT close. Of all professional casino gamblers, poker players have the most difficult time determining if they have an edge -- or, periodically, if they STILL have an edge.

Not surprisingly, they are the least secure of professional gamblers, and most subject to psychological ups and downs.

But when they destroyed the universal free-market derived gold standard, they forced nearly everyone to gamble just to maintain their "savings." To some degree, this condemned almost EVERYONE to be a gambler, if not in person, then by proxy, gambling on some fund manager's expertise.
Previously, you could just store up a few gold pieces and not worry. Thus a major real cost of ditching the gold standard is it has forced everyone to some extent to "live a counterfeit life" in thrall to one financial market or another -- including the insecurity and ruin sometimes inherent in that position. This is the sin for which "they" should be the most severely punished.

The other even worse sin is that "their" system passes the results and the debts, through the magic of governments' "national debts," on to the kids and the yet unborn.

Regards,
Journeyman

http://markpoyser.com/bartiromotalks/qg.htm
Yuk!

... will extra-ordinarily haunt Terrestrials - IMHO and
cb2

I bought silver in 1973 for approx $4.40 per oz but was not patient enough to hold for the homer. Big lesson in life. Have been closely following the supply/demand case for silver again since 93, and will simply hold for the inevitable price appreciation. Some things you just know, but you still have to have a degree of timing. Am prepared to buy silver at historic lows and hold throughout the decade if necessary {highly unlikely}. Not much timing required with this plan. You pay your money and take your chances. Your old grouchy photo guy is looking at the world through his personal microscope. Photography is a tremendous CONSUMER {as in gone} of silver in spite of the fact they recycle some. Best to you.

http://www.piraz.com/wmre.htmNot so inscrutable, our detective...

http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm
This is Ed's commentary from a week ago. Outstanding piece covering the dollar/euro/oil/gold relationship. From the article;

"Gerard Jackson, in March 1997, wrote an article for The New Australian
entitled: Free Markets and Democracy, a reply to George Soros. In the
article, Mr. Jackson, a well-read economic historian, replied to Soros'
attack on the free market system and of it threatening democracy,
correctly accusing him of ignorant economics. I will not spend time on
the argument, but have provided the link for your own interest... just
click on the title of the article above.

"As we all know, Mr. Soros strongly believes that financial markets are
inherently unstable. Extrapolating such a view, it isn't difficult to reach
statist, socialist, or communist conclusions on the topic of individualism
and market mechanisms, but I am amazed at who it comes from. What
ever happened to his supposed understanding of economics?

"That is less important, however, than perhaps the fact that his view of
free markets (he is publishing a new book by the way) may be
increasingly and frighteningly representative of today's leaders. Now I
re read this article because I was dumfounded by comments that he
made in a recent interview last week, where he claimed that the
condition of rapidly vanishing savings rates can go on for some time,
that the government's bourses are well intact due to the US fiscal
budget surplus, there is no inflation, and that the dollar will stay strong
because foreign interests are all on side.

"Combined with his critique of the ECB's monetary policies, I don't know
if he is lying because he is short the dollar or because he has become
an agent of the US Treasury (part of the establishment, so to speak).
Anyway, the part of the Gerard Jackson article, which I found
particularly interesting and goes right to the heart of Soros ignorance
(or agenda) is this: "Markets are basically stable. What is not stable is
monetary policy. And it is faulty monetary policies that destabilize
economies. When the gold standard reigned supreme financial markets
never witnessed the kind of prolonged financial gyrations that we are
now experiencing. These wild fluctuations are basically caused by
constant changes, and anticipated changes, in money supplies, price
levels and exchange rates. Furthermore, banks unofficially going off the
gold standard by artificially lowering their interest rates through credit
expansion caused nineteenth century depressions. The roots of this
theory can be found in Ricardo and the Currency School. The Austrians
refined the theory and integrated it into capital theory. (Unfortunately,
the Austrian view has been successfully suppressed in Australia - and
not by the Left, who probably do not even know it exists)..." Gerard
Jackson, March 1997.

"Well said!

"Now, please refer to the two charts at the beginning of the report and
remember that it is both, in the interests of "today's" dollar bulls (or so
they think) as well as it is in the interests of today's commodity bulls
(dollar bears), to see to it that the Fed will lower interest rates soon.

"But the fact remains that it is in the Fed's interest to raise interest
rates high enough to prevent the inflation from spreading, now, while
inflation expectations are still in check. In our opinion, this is true
whether it is acknowledged or not. Unfortunately, Mr. Greenspan and
company cannot afford to do what they must to ensure the survival of
the Federal Reserve System, for it has got to be difficult for the man of
the decade to put everyone out of work in order to "prevent" the
otherwise inevitable currency / economic collapse."

Thanks for all the input regarding NS and PEI--very helpful.

Randy, what is the direct impact upon the US when interest rates hit 1700% in Turkey and Ukraine braces for 25% inflation? That's a long way from home.

RE: FED OPen Market Cmte.Did you see the article in the WSJ today regarding the "strong possibility" that the FED will ease soon? Also, there was an article at Bloomberg yesterday about the FED Futures (I think) indicating a rate cut appears to be imminent.

There we have it; more debauchery visited upon our money supply. Where does it all end?

I notice that the Dow and Nasdaq futures have gone ballistic overnight, most small investors have been "trained" by the Wall Street gurus this past month to believe that a definitive final election result will cause a stock market jump.

Of course, bear markets do tend to disappoint, especially those in which the big commercial players hold record short positions.

How many times do I remember over the past years how certain bullish developments in the gold market turned out to be no more than mere "false hopes? "

That, of course, is the secret to creating investor capitulation. Every significant hope must be dashed, until a point is reached where the bleeding and disappointment is
simply too much, and investors run for the exits, rather than lose the remnants of their assets, rather than experience the constant depression resulting from almost always being wrong.

Unless some negative event develops before opening tomorrow, I would expect a huge jump in the Nasdaq tomorrow, very sharp, very swift, and it should cause many bulls to break their rigid code of market conduct. One code that most disciplined investors try to follow is this: only speculate with profits (house money), never play with original personal source capital.

However, when you have been bleeding a long time, and you believe a sure thing (long awaited X-mas rally) is at hand, then caution may be thrown to the wind, often with disastrous results.

A sharp surge, followed almost immediately by a full bearish key reversal, could throw a large number of over-eager bulls into a real "trouble zone," wherein much personal source capital is placed at risk at a time where high lifestyle demands make such risk unbearable.

THAT is the springpad for a capitulation panic, especially when the reversal is sudden and very discouraging, and the exits remain so narrow for the millions of overleveraged, under-saved investors today.

Thanks

F*

... If I bought gold at the end of the first rally, or bought (more) mining shares today! -
Well, that's it - I bought close to a multi-year bottom... a bottom convincingly enough to never care about any retesting of the same - and I don't care about the DJI, or any other index going "Insana", as the DJI proved today - as it will help to fill my limit orders for NEM, HM and - smaller fry, with more potential than the biggies , and, of course bullion.
Well, I don't care - though I've got to be in - NOW- and maybe tomorow is either a day early ... or (never) too late ...? ... to debate,
the fate -
of the state, where courts decide -
the presidential candidate - ...
Dade, Talahassee Gate ...
or just too late
to contemplate
a class action
against all
not voting in the state!?

Have you? - cb2

Moi aussi mon ami. Le POG, c'est tres beaucoup n'est pas?

Don't worry. Let the easing begin. More inflation in store. Twenty dollars for a family of five to eat (poorly) at McDonalds tonight (humoring the kids)! $1.05 for a small can of chicken noodle soup! I'll have a hedonic and a glass of water--no straw.

auspec,

I'm with you buddy, scooping big chunks of silver and little pieces of gold, sitting back and waiting, patiently.

My gut feeling is this; the bulls on CNBC and CNN have an enormus stake in this game. Goldman Sucks and the likewise investment brokers have a decided bias as well. The economy and taxes generated by this bull is reason enough to manage the numbers to their benefit. Is the game rigged to keep it going, damn straight. If it stops, the severe domino unwind will be devastating. Just think of our modern economy, a good portion is based strictly on the promotion of the economy itself. It's a self-fulfilling spiral.

On the other hand the handful of contrarian comment on this forum and others seem to be more genuine. There seems to be a greater degree of truth and reality to the information on the contrarian websites and frankly the individuals on this site are a hell of alot smarter, period.

It may seem a hokey theory but believability and integrity
play big in my book and the people on this site are long in this sense. This is why I am the silvercollector, because it is honest and it is the truth.

Look into the eyes of Clinton and Gore, do you see honesty, integrity, and truth emulating from these men?

http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm
I excerpted the paragraph below from the excellent link (repeated in header) supplied by ET. This is as close to the truth as I've ever seen in print.

"Assume for a moment that the world's leaders are dutifully aware of the existential
aspects of the current relative structure of the global currency regime, meaning that
THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A
REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD. Is this a fair assumption? It is a safe one� never
underestimate the intelligence of the market's puppet masters. Anyhow, considering such
an assumption it isn't too difficult to see how the Fed and the Treasury will have to
concede at least a temporary Euro victory, if only to preserve the global currency
infrastructure." -Turkeys Can't Fly Far, Ed Bugos, Nov. 28, 2000, http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm [same link in header]

Tere's the dirty truth, the part I typed in CAPS, and unfortunately, TG's group endorses it.

Regards,
Journeyman

http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm
I excerpted the paragraph below from the excellent link (repeated in header) supplied by ET. This is as close to the truth as I've ever seen in print.

"Assume for a moment that the world's leaders are dutifully aware of the existential
aspects of the current relative structure of the global currency regime, meaning that
THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A
REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD. Is this a fair assumption? It is a safe one� never
underestimate the intelligence of the market's puppet masters. Anyhow, considering such
an assumption it isn't too difficult to see how the Fed and the Treasury will have to
concede at least a temporary Euro victory, if only to preserve the global currency
infrastructure." -Turkeys Can't Fly Far, Ed Bugos, Nov. 28, 2000, http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm [same link in header]

There's the dirty truth, the part I typed in CAPS, and unfortunately, TG's group endorses it.

Regards,
Journeyman

Journeyman, justamerebear, and of course everyone who helps here lead closer to truth. I am heading to bed if I can, but cant wait to get up in just a bit, and digest what you all have been posting!


As always I will be getting up looking forward to what great articles Black Blade comes up with tonight. This must be his rest, or research time.

http://www.nstorm.com/games/download_game.cfm?game=frogpult.exeFree downloads, Elf Bowling 2, Revote, Clinton, Gore, Bush,
lots of funny stuff....Yes way off topic I know...YGM

JOURNYMAN this quote reminds me of a story.

THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD.

It seems a hi-way patrolman had been following a truck for many miles, and although the policman had made several stops he would alway find himself behind the truck fairly quickly.
The officer, after once again over taking truck, this time parked beside the road, observed the driver beating the sides of the trailer with a broom handle. The officer thought it strange, but had other things to do, so he didn't stop. A short time later the officer was stopped with a "customer" but observed the truck as it again passed him. After a short time the officer again overtook the truck and again it was stopped beside the road and the driver was again beating the sides of the trailer. This time the officer just had to stop and find out what was going on.

The driver explained that he feared that he was overloaded with a cargo of canaries, and had to keep half of them flying before going through the near by weight station.

For the Demos as well as the Repubs, the scales are coming into view, and its going to take a lot of effort to keep this economy flying.

Perplexed

Wow! How to follow that up! To start with, I believe we are actually in agreement. Gambling is foolish,risky behavior. Driving over 200 mph is foolish. Cliff diving is foolish.
Farming these days is actually foolish.
That certainly does not stop people from doing it. Financial survival is series of gambles, is it not? Your points are on the money, but again I must admit I do not see how A person who went short from 1980 (paper) could come out behind a person who was long(physical)? ANYONE who has bought and held since that time is TECHNICALLY behind ANYONE who consistently went short!?!($US) Are they not? I, personally have lost money on options because of my ,obviously idiotic, belief in going long gold. There had to be someone on the other side?? Look, I am gold's biggest fool,ok, but you cannot deny the trend or the math. By removing the emotion/faith and reading the 20 year charts it should be plain to see. What is also plain to see in the fundamentals is very bullish. That in no way alters the FACTS of the chart! Where we come together on is the philosophy, and we are microns apart on the execution only!
I believe, as you, those contracts will be asswipe, mark my words, But to our shagrin, it has not stopped shorts from profitting handsomely.

PS. Also,I do VERY extensive research on junior gold/silver stocks before buying and don't own any mutual funds.

Ah, at last! It appears that we will get a reprieve from the incessant talking political heads (and rears) as the nine Supremes in Washington uttered their words of wisdom today: Send it back down the line (to the lesser supremes of the Sunshine State). I had posted last time that such a decision would be a distinct possibility, since who wants to handle this year's (not to mention this century's) political hot potato. But it does appear that Al Gore aka "Gorebedon Milosevic" may finally be running out of options and time and will be packing his bags. Hallelejah! You really can't fault the guy for trying because if--no, when--he loses he then goes to the back of the line and (you guessed it) Hillary is next up in four years. Why else did she run for the Senate seat of New York State?

But let's get back to what really counts: the markets. As I posted around the second week of November, I expected the U.S. Dollar Index to tell the tale. And it has. After a double top at around 118, it has since broken down hard--including today's drop--to close under 114. I mentioned that chart-wise 114 was KEY SUPPORT. Now the next stop is 112, then 110, then 108 and finally somewhere around 100. Eventually, I see the U.S. Dollar Index putting in a double bottom at around 82!! Conversely, the means the Euro and Swiss Franc will rebound sharply and so will GOLD. Gold is even showing signs of life, up another $1.90 today. We will see the days when $5-10 jumps are common. All of this action is not lost on the CRB Index which just broke above 230 today (thanks to rallying livestock, grains and softs). Once it takes out 234, we are off to the races.

Gentlemen, start your engines and prepare for the great GOLD rally of 2001!

Ah, at last! It appears that we will get a reprieve from the incessant talking political heads (and rears) as the nine Supremes in Washington uttered their words of wisdom today: Send it back down the line (to the lesser supremes of the Sunshine State). I had posted last time that such a decision would be a distinct possibility, since who wants to handle this year's (not to mention this century's) political hot potato. But it does appear that Al Gore aka "Gorebedon Milosevic" may finally be running out of options and time and will be packing his bags. Hallelejah! You really can't fault the guy for trying because if--no, when--he loses he then goes to the back of the line and (you guessed it) Hillary is next up in four years. Why else did she run for the Senate seat of New York State?

But let's get back to what really counts: the markets. As I posted around the second week of November, I expected the U.S. Dollar Index to tell the tale. And it has. After a double top at around 118, it has since broken down hard--including today's drop--to close under 114. I mentioned that chart-wise 114 was KEY SUPPORT. Now the next stop is 112, then 110, then 108 and finally somewhere around 100. Eventually, I see the U.S. Dollar Index putting in a double bottom at around 82!! Conversely, the means the Euro and Swiss Franc will rebound sharply and so will GOLD. Gold is even showing signs of life, up another $1.90 today. We will see the days when $5-10 jumps are common. All of this action is not lost on the CRB Index which just broke above 230 today (thanks to rallying livestock, grains and softs). Once it takes out 234, we are off to the races.

Gentlemen, start your engines and prepare for the great GOLD rally of 2001!

http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.html
Consider the following from the article on Turkey's crisis posted earlier (link in header.) The two paragraphs below, separated from each other by about half of the article, tell an interesting story:

"The central bank governor said over the weekend he had
$18.8 billion to use, [to defend the Turkish currency down
from $21.583 billion on November 24 and $24.433 billion
before the crisis set in." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And from an earlier paragraph in the same story:

"In Ankara, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team
began talks on a loan, possibly $4-5 billion, to
ease a dramatic liquidity squeeze now threatening to
demolish Turkey's anti-inflation programme." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And yet another relevant paragaraph from same Reuters story:

"Average overnight interbank rates, a good measure of the general climate in money markets, reached
782.46 percent, down from 863.99 on Friday. But there was no clear indication the upward trend of the
last two weeks had been broken." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And two final paragraphs from that Reuters story:

"If the two sides fail to agree a Supplementary Reserve Facility (SRF), a short-term loan at higher interest
rates, or talks drag on, Turkey could be forced to abandon a crawling peg currency and devalue. This
would destroy the IMF programme."
+
"I'm confident the peg will hold because the consequences of allowing the peg to go, both in domestic
and international terms, are just too high," John Lomax of HSBC said." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now compare the situation described for Turkey by the Reuters article with "dollar tyranny" described in an article from a Mexican site posted last week:

"As soon as exports of any one country seem to fade, the
speculative sharks begin to circle. The currency is deemed
"overvalued". A devaluation is at hand. The Central Bank can cast
away all its accumulated Dollars in defense of its currency, but
in vain. The speculators are stronger than any Central Bank. The
currency must fall in value, and then will be weaker because the
Central Bank has no reserves left.
+
*The Central Bank will raise interest rates drastically, to stem
the Dollar hemorrhage and retain or bring in Dollars. The
devaluation will wreck savings, and the high interest rates will
devastate the productive structure*. *The Central Bank will
continue to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely afflicted
countries are financing the U.S. Government, at a cost to
themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The spectres of Bretton Woods, http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/salinas9.htm

The date on the article on Turkey is Dec. 4, 200. This means that between November 24 and Dec. 4, the Turkish CB blew $21.583 billion minus $18.8 billon or $2.783 billion defending the Turkish currency --- in 10 days!

If the burn rate stays the same,

1. How long would the IMF $4-5 billion hold the line? (Answer: Less than 20 days.)

2. How much longer than that would the original remaining $18.8 billion last? (Answer: 66 more days)

$1 - 618400 Turkish lira. If you were in Turkey, would you want to own gold?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I know. It couldn't happen here.

Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and��

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."

Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and��

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."

Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and��

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."

TestView Yesterday's Discussion.

Test

I see where Fed Governor
Broaddus said yesterday that the Fed's inflation concerns are now on the wane.
So there we have it. The war against inflation has been won. Only
it hasn't been, as you and I both know. This is another eerie similarity
the current period has to the 1970s. Back then, the U.S. endured a series of
recessions, while the Fed only dabbled at reducing inflation. Finally, it took the joint
resolve of a Paul Volker and a Ronald Reagan to do the job properly. Volker
clamped down so tightly on the money supply that unemployment soared above
ten percent. Meanwhile, Reagan brazenly fired the air traffic controllers for
demanding higher wages. These actions seemed draconian to a lot of people.
But they were essential parts of getting the job done. Before the battle was over, the
liberal media was broadcasting pictures of bread lines in the Midwest and of whole
families living out of their automobiles. It wasn't a pretty sight, but it worked.
Inflation in the U.S. between 1980 and 1987 dropped from 13% to 1.5%, setting up
the greatest boom in American history.
We were still experiencing that boom right up until very recently. But today we have
another Fed which makes a show of raising interest rates while allowing the supply of
money to spiral almost out of sight. Then, at the first whiff of an economic slowdown,
it declares victory over rising prices. This isn't victory. As we shall soon see, it's only
a retreat.
And yet that is only one front in this phony war. On the other front, we have President
Clinton calling for a minimum wage increase and Vice President Gore threatening to control
the profits of the nation's great energy and pharmaceutical companies (he'll never get the
chance, thank heaven).
Trust me. More inflation is on the way!
Thanks.

Design a SLOT machine that only takes certain Gold coins, adjusted so the gamblers win once in a while....beesting.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton120400.htmlZelotes at GE nailed my recent wondering about the "non-perturbation" of the gold price line -- sure has been looking like an "Official" price to me.

"Yet, defying all attempts at natural explanation, the price of gold was literally flatlined between October 26th and November 24th. For an amazing 21 trading days in a row, gold traded within $1 of US$266 per ounce! One dollar out of 266 is a trivial percentage. It works out to four tenths of one percent (0.38%). The gold chart during this strange time looked like one of the medical monitors on a paramedic drama after they have lost a patient. It was as if gold was abducted by aliens and simply ceased to exist for 21 days in a row.

The peculiar nature of this tight trading range is perhaps best expressed in terms of other markets. For the Dow at 10500 for instance, a 0.38% daily trading range would mean closes between 10460 and 10540 for over a month. For the NASDAQ at 3000, a daily 0.38% trading range would mean closes between 2989 and 3011 � for over a month straight! If the equity markets traded like this for 21 trading days, bubblevision would go bankrupt as equity investors keeled over and dropped dead of sheer boredom. No one would want to follow daily closes within 0.38% of a central point, television ratings would plummet, advertisers would pull their ads, and the Wall Street cheerleading section would follow the dinosaurs into extinction. If this type of unbelievable trading collar happened in the equity markets today, there would be a monstrous search as analysts tried to ferret out the problem. It would be a media event.

This kind of price inaction in the gold market is just as implausible and downright miraculous as it would be in the equity markets. In order to explore the anomaly, a fair question to ask might be the following. "Well, if gold was so comatose for 21 consecutive trading days, was it because nothing was going on that could have influenced the gold price?" Unfortunately for that hypothesis, there was a LOT that happened during those odd days where gold drifted listlessly like a ghost ship on a glassy sea."


G: not to mention the smoothness of the price line over the past year or five... like someone adjusting their sell orders on a weekly basis...

... also woke up this morning (sick, obsessed mind!) wondering what the analogy would be if Real Estate price was the object of their control, as in "Central banks stand ready to sell or lease real estate should prices rise... (AG on AU)"

Not an easy market to short sell, or a market in which paper claims could be mass-produced (moon lots? Mars?), but hey -- the wizards of Wall Street can do it all, can't they?

Anyone take a crack at it while I'm off being school bus driver?

test

IMHO Real Estate prices are manipulated, consider this:
Every time a person makes a home improvement, property taxes are assessed at a higher rate.Usually each year, or every 5 years,local governments re-assess property values upward, to keep up with inflation! This only stops when there is very high general unemployment and/or landowners/homeowners over extend themselves to the point where many,many start to default on loans.
A growing population with high employment,guarantees a constant demand for housing.

Here's a true story:
I have a friend in Rhode Island that lives in a 100 year old house she owns outright.She's getting up in years and wants to sell it.Property tax statement says the house is worth over $100,000. The mortgage lender says she has to spend about $40,000(main supporting beams are getting rotten) to upgrade the house before they'll lend to a qualified buyer'she's on a small fixed income pension.All the other houses in the area are valued at over $100,000.

So, the truth is; If she bull dozers the house down, the lot alone should be worth $20,000 or so but she has to pay several thousand to the bull dozing company, much of it in disposal costs.

How much is her house and property REALLY worth?

Thanks for Reading...beesting.

Hi Megatron!

I'm enjoying our little exchange -- sort of wish goldhunter were
here too -- you guys are fighting a strong bias here, and while
preaching to the choir is OK, there aren't enough heretics to
punch holes in my "sermons" when they're wrong!

Anyway, the point I want to make is that, looking at the charts
NOW, it is perfectly clear IN RETROSPECT exactly how you SHOULD
HAVE played the options IF ONLY YOU HAD KNOWN _BEFORE_ YOU PLACED
YOUR BETS. If I knew the outcome of next Monday's "Monday Night
Football" game, I could make a pile. So could Forrest Gump. But
you see, you DIDN'T know before hand.

Over the last 20 years, undoubtedly many gold buyers bought
because they too thought they could _predict_ the future. So
far, they've been wrong. But you see, this subset of gold buyers
thought they could predict what was going to happen _before it
actually happened_ TOO! You can't, I can't, Greenspan can't:

"Whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, all policy
rests, at least implicitly, on a forecast of a future
that we can know only in probabilistic terms. Even
monetary policy rules that use recent economic outcomes
or money supply growth rates presuppose that the
underlying historical structure from which the rules
are derived will remain unchanged in the future. But
such a forecast is as uncertain as any." -Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, "Challenges for
monetary policymakers", At Cato Institute, October 19,
2000, http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches
/2000/200010192.htm

NOBODY can. Only, as Greenspan says above, "we can know only in
probabilistic terms." And if prediction of what is going to
happen is difficult, timing is even more impossible.

But a physical gold holder has an option an options player
doesn't: The physical player doesn't have to accurately predict
timing. He/she can keep his gold and sell it ANY time he wants -
- or NOT sell it. Of course, this may be limited by greed, fear,
plans, etc. But these limits are all immediately changeable,
merely by changing one's mind. There are of course life-span
considerations which thus far limit his PERSONAL options to sell
or not sell (but not necessarily those of his heirs.)

An options player on the otherhand, CAN'T buy-and-hold.
Predicting timing is the essence. He/she is FORCED to trade at
the end of each expiration -- if he hasn't lost. He may decide
to exit the game, taking his bet plus or minus his win or loss.
But he MUST, if he's going to keep playing, make a NEW bet
(presumabley based on a new prediction) and take his new gamble.
He must be correct in his bets often enough to recover the loses
from his inevitable bad bets, and in addition, enough to pay the
vig, taxes (if he chooses to participate in this voluntary
activity) and show a large enough profit to make it worth
playing. Are you? Have you kept good enough records to even
know?

But to do better than the buy-and-hold goldbug, you have to keep
up this accurate predicting (and timing) and betting for 20
years. And live with the stress. (And of course, "Prediction is
very difficult, especially of the future." -Yogi And, "... to
acting man, the future is always hidden." -Mises)

And you haven't beaten the goldbug until you cash-out that final
option and bank the buying power you've won. And you might not
want to bank it in $$ right now. Which you already know ;)

There are, of course, a few THEORETICALLY perfect strategies to
play the options as they actually played out over the past 20
years -- IN RETROSPECT. And there may even be a few traders who
got extremely lucky and actually played one or another of those
strategies for the last 20 years. How many do you think?

There's an old scam you sometimes see in movies: A conman goes to
the track and stands just behind his mark. After the first race,
he cheers and asks the mark if he'll go and cash in his winning
ticket. He keeps this up race after race, apparently winning
every race. The scam is that he's bought a ticket on EVERY horse
in EVERY race -- he'll ALWAYS have a winning ticket in each race.
It cost the conman a lot of money to appear to be winning, but he
doesn't care. He's just made an investment with the mark's
bankroll as the payoff.

Folks who look back at a record of what has already happened and
imagine that they could have bet it are sort of like that mark.
They assume they (or someone) actually won EVERY RACE. They're
correct -- but just like at a track without the conman, it was
nearly always a DIFFERENT someone for each race. No one
individual put together the end-to-end string of wins the conman
appeared to.

Of course as Teweles and Jones suggest, some people play the
futures markets for the same reason they go to Santa Anita or
Vegas. O.K. As long as you know your doing this for
entertainment (remember Vegas calls itself "The Entertainment
Capital of the World!") -- and you can afford it, cool! If you
can be one of the few, perhaps 10%, who win something, all the
better.

But Vegas was built by folks who were sure that _they_ could win
too.

Regards,
Journeyman

www.kitco.comAny credence to this?

Date: Tue Dec 05 2000 13:13
silverback (The source of the PPT's liquidity today) ID#221358:
Date: Tue Dec 05 2000 06:53
WIFFO ( On friday last 305,000 futures contracts were traded for february gold on NYMEX. ) ID#239307:
Thats about 900 tons of gold or 35-40% of the worlds annual production.
It was the highest single trading day volume since 1980.
That is on average 10x higher than a usual trading day.

NOT a good sign for gold bulls or market contrarians.

Thanks

F*

http://www.cnbc.com/cd/gx.cgi/cs?pagename=FutureTense/Apps/Xcelerate/Render&c=cnbcarticle&cid=cc119TBUDGCWith this excerpt from our newswire --- "I think it's time markets get away from assuming Lindsey is Bush's pick as Treasury Secretary and the oversimplified view that Lindsey means a stronger dollar simply because he had some unfriendly remarks about the coordinated efforts late last summer to prop up the euro." --- the writer adds credibility to something MK has been warning of in his daily Commentaries regarding the likelihood of a weakening dollar under the next administration.

This article is quite insightful, and reasonable glimpses of the future seem well framed in these two excerpts.

"Indeed, insiders in Washington speculated that Greenspan was hoping Gore would win, despite being a registered Republican, simply because he was so pleased with the Clinton approach to the Fed's independence and so unhappy with President Bush's attacks on Fed independence in 1992. Some economists have even speculated further that the Fed chairman may be less interested in hanging around as Fed chairman if GW's presidency picks up where his father's left off -- especially given the growing risk of an economic slowdown."
...
"Lindsey is a died-in-the-wool supply-sider, a member of that branch of economics that always existed outside of the realm of highly regarded academic and applied economics. ...not an approach that Greenspan has much time for. ("pop-economics") The area of specialization that Lindsey can claim is tax policy, which arguably has a better home at the National Economic Council than at Treasury."

Excerpt from above post:

"But a physical gold holder has an option an options player
doesn't: The physical player doesn't have to accurately predict
timing."

Sir Journeyman

You make such powerful points that I hesitate to attempt to add to your thread of thought; however although I am probably splitting hairs I would like to rephrase the above extract from your post to read as follows:

"But a physical gold holder does not have to contend with the disadvantage of timing his actions on a short-term basis."

In other words the holder of physical does not have an additional option, rather he has at least one less land mine to avoid, the land mine of timing his moves in a small window of time.

Sort of a cheap piece of input on my part.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: I also wish that goldhunter were here to give us some balance on this or would we choir members call it "unbalance".

The rally in financial instruments is not only predicated on the Fed easing of interest rates, but on its injection of new money into the system.

The rally has centered on the bond market rather than the stock market (which values earnings as a power function of interest rates). The treasury bond and note rally which dates to the beginning of the year, signified a flow of money out of other instruments, and support from Treasury with the Fed joining in later in the year, some time in April or May. The sources of these flows into long term government paper were commercial bonds, particularly junk, and stocks. These flows continue as funds buying stocks are met with sellers putting the proceeds into bonds.

The rally in basic industry stocks that has been ongoing since late September (a double bottom, the second of which came in mid October) indicates a market expectation of higher margins for these companies producing steel, chemicals, and final products like autos, paper and dishwashers. The market has been saying prices for these items will rise relative to the costs of inputs (energy, wood, labor, scrap and virgin iron, money).

The rally in the financials started in March 2000 just as the Nasdaq had topped. Since bank profits are generated from the margin between the interest rates they charge and those they provide depositors, this could only have meant that the markets were expecting bank loan interest rates to meet lower relative costs. This was an intended consequence towards which the Fed and Treasury had both put in much effort.

The congressional attack on Fannie Mae was part and parcel of this attempt to make the banks more profitable.

The need for bank profitability is most likely the result of an uncomfortable proximity to insolvency as bank assets have dropped in market value, while their liabilities have not. The capital adequacy requirements to be imposed on the banks according to the treaties with the BIS and OECD member's regulators would not allow as much low market value assets to be hidden within artificially high bookings.

The treasury bond rally of this year had provided the banks with a lower cost of funds just as commercial borrowers were beaten out of the bond markets into the banker's offices. Since treasuries compete with bank deposit/paper rates, the low treasury rates created by the combination of Treasury buying, the flows out of the stock market, and the Fed, provided banks with lesser competition for deposits.

The fear in the commercial bond markets, shown in the enormous spreads to treasuries reflected the stock performance of the debtor corporations in the industrial and telecom sectors, which are the main issuers of non-financial commercial debt, and are the bulk of the economy (those that use information technology, rather than those that supply it). Industrial corporations were the prime American sufferers from foreign competition over the last two decades of the dollar debt trap which had forced producers around the globe to sell their wares at "fire sale" prices in order to obtain dollars with which to repay dollar loans.

The last door of the dollar debt trap was sprung in 1994 as the Fed raised interest rates from 3% (by far the lowest rates of any major economy in the world at that time), to 5.5% in 1995. By 1996, the rates at the Fed were the highest interest rates in the whole of the industrialized world. Yen and Euro precursor currencies were dumped around the world as funds were converted into dollars and flowed into the US. Carry trades grew and financial debt started to grow by leaps and bounds, along with the official statistics of US debt showing that nearly all of the new financial debt was sourced from outside the US.

The bear market in stocks that started in April 1998 with the demise of small cap "Old Economy" stocks, continued into their larger capitalization brethren and into real estate trusts and later into treasury bonds (since September 1998 and till the end of 1999) and then ate through the technology sector and the "blue chips. This leg of it is now over. The "Greenspan put" is being made good. Money will start flowing into the markets and general profits in American business will begin rising as they have not been able to since 1994-5. This time they will share their profits with the resource sector.

It is again the end of 1965. But this time, the dollar will not hold its value in either goods or creditor nation currencies. The confidence factor for the gold redeemability of the dollar in 1965 does not exist today. Watch out.

Thanks for posting that article (which I might have missed otherwise.) Mr. Gilmore raises some interesting speculation. Beyond what you clipped, I was also intrigued with the concept of a French style executive in which Bush would act as the head of state and Cheyney as almost a prime minister. I think we have seen signs of that already -- particularly the skilled handling of the transition news conference conducted by Cheyney last week. I saw the interview of George Bush, Sr. when he blamed Alan Greenspan for his losing the election in 1992. He was asked why he lost and answered that the recession and Alan Greenspan's policies were the key factor, so I can see how Greenspan might wonder how he would be affected by a Bush White House.
I will stick with my earlier observations that a Bush White House might move quietly behind the scenes against the Wall Street group that so heavily financed the Gore run for the White House, and Hillary's run for the Senate. As I have said since the mess in Florida started, despite what we see in the public domain, there will be plenty of old scores to be settled, administration fortifications to be built, and electoral/political security gained. It's going to take some major big-heartedness (even naivete) to put them aside. The Gilmore analysis offers much in the way of food for thought for those trying to see around the corners into how a Bush presidency might affect the markets. Probably the best single analysis I have seen to date on the subject.

I also miss the imput of Goldhunter and it would have been interesting as the coming events unfold to see if his position would change. Some years ago in Orange County, California there was a very successful Pyramid club operating that held out riches to those that would invest. Even after the authorites stepped in there were a group of engineers that actually went to court to try and continue the Pyramid. Goldhunter is so buried in the present Gold Market that he thinks if it will just keep going he will make some money and his judgement vindicated, I don't think so. White Hills

1. I should have added that if the Bush administration moves against the people who backed Hillary and Gore, it could add up to a positive for gold as there could very well be a move against the free and easy derivative slinger mentality that now governs Wall Street.

2. In this morning's Denver Post, George Bush is pictured seated with Colorado governor, Bill Owens. Bill Owens sponsored legislation in Colorado to kill the sales tax on gold coins. He also was instrumental in the letter sent to Congress and the White House imploring the two to squelch the International Monetary Fund gold sales pushed for by the likes of Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Seeing the picture reminded me of GW's strong Western ties and ties to Western governors -- many of whom are sympathetic to the gold mining industry for obvious reasons. Just an additional thought that I thought I would throw out for consideration and discussion. Some of us here in Colorado think we have our own presidential timber in Governor Owens, if he would even consider leaving the state. I think right now he will be content with a Bush White House and doing the things that good governors do.

Although the absence of a bearish key reversal today suggests strongly a potential new bullish leg up in the stock market, nevertheless it would be interesting to know who drove this market upward.

If big commercials were behind the upspike then you can probably kiss your shorts goodbye.

If bullish spec funds, Yankeephile foreigners, and retail investors drove it up, then that will be of significant interest.

As I posted the other day, any kind of bearish key reversal that quickly wipes out today's gain could be the trigger to a panic capitulation. After all, the depression/shock/desperation would be intense, especially considering how many bulls most likely broke open their piggy banks to push funds into the market today, so absolutely certain that the Christmas rally arrived finally. Any such reversal would likely be the straw that breaks the bullish camel's back.

However the reversal must be swift and severe, probably within the next 24-48 hours. Without any such reversal, then we could see a slow long ascension, and who knows, maybe a reconfirmation of a bull market.

I do know one thing: given the plethora of uncertainties swirling around the world today, from the American presidency to the petroleum products situation, I think an excessive long position in the SM is akin to playing with fire.

Thanks

F*

RE: GWBCheyney is out front a lot. There's a reason for that. Many understand that GWB is not the best and the brightest. His Father knows this. However, an average manager leading an excellent team can be tough to beat.

I think it is fundamentally wrong to believe that any candidate can improve the lot of gold investors. Perhaps I'm too cynical. What is needed is a left field event. That's my belief. Until proven wrong I say, show me the money.

tonite, don't wait, tomorrow maybe too late.

watch japan and china

Why?

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlCentennial Precious Metals is proud to announce that international approval has been granted for our toll-free European 800# which, as a consequence, should now be functioning throughout our entire European market area (with a remaining exception of Austria, where the officials seem to have adopted a more leisurely pace in wading through the process.)

In order to help us verify that this system is fully operational, we are requesting assistance from our European internet visitors. We would simply like to have someone from each country attempt a toll-free phone call to us during our office hours (Denver--Mountain Time Zone). As an incentive, and to reward you for such bold adventurism, we will send a free copy of Michael's book "The ABCs of Gold Investing" (see link for description) to the first person calling from each of these following countries. (Just ask for Jill or Marie and say that you are helping us with this test by calling from the beautiful country of _________)

Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
United Kingdom

The toll-free European number is 00-800-2760-2760

We are also now beginning to deliver information packets to European addresses which include our popular and useful Gold Almanac 2000. Anyone interested in doing business with Centennial Precious Metals may request one by using the "Request Info" link found at the top of this page. We would also like to take this time to thank those of you participating in the strong response we have already had prior to our toll-free phone number being established in these European countries. We look forward to continuing to our effort to serve you better.

http://www.futuresource.com/reg/cgi-bin/art?001204/071038Responding to your request for verification on the Friday trading volume of Feb gold futures, records released Monday detailing Friday's trade indicate only 22,047 of those February contracts were writen or traded.

Hope this helps.

Markets way up today even though "..Bush's win was already priced in..."

Right.

Spent alot of time rolling through last night's and this morning's posts from this forum and the other two. One thing is certain, there is a pile of people 'wishing' for the SM crash and gold's rise. That's what alot of it is, wishful thinking, not alot of fact, guesses.

The oil thing sure is a mystery. Iraq stops production and oil goes down, say what? Ok, Iraq resumes production and oil goes...down some more?

The economy is cooling so oil goes down, alrighty, sounds right; the stock market soars today?

Gold stocks way up yesterday, way down today, gold flat?

API reports refineries running at 91%/93%. I thought we were flat out? And unleaded gas falling like a rock? There
was an energy crisis yesterday and not today. What's tomorrow's verdict, back on?

Oh, it's 'VOLATILITY', what the hell is that? What's going on.

Can someone tell me what's going on? Please.

http://www.safehaven.ca/GoldenBar120600.htm
Ed's new commentary with an in-depth analysis of the gold market included. A good read. From the article;

"What do we need gold for anyway if we've got the dollar? Apparently
nothing if prices continue to decline relative to the US dollar, though,
since when is anything good for anything when prices only decline? I
remember when oil prices declined from $20 to $10 in 1998. How many
people do you remember telling you that oil was not necessary to us in
the new economy? We know who talked the talk, and we knew then
that the talk was not true, but we also knew that humans would believe
it to be true as long as prices continued to decline. Many investors
believe that stock prices go up because of fundamentals (or a
catalyst)� as if some mysterious force (the invisible hand perhaps) was
recognizing these fundamentals and adjusting the market accordingly.
Of course, this is the ideal market condition; but unfortunately we
cannot trust the market mechanism today because as we have shown in
past commentary, discretionary monetary policy has skewed / distorted
it. Thus, fundamentals do not make the market go up anymore, cheap,
soft, and dishonest money does.

"This is called inflation and consequently, it is through the artificial rise
in US asset prices that the Fed (or Treasury) manipulates (raises) our
confidence in dollar denominated assets. In other words, the invisible
hand has been replaced by the Federal Reserve System, which now
gives fresh money to certain preferred junkies every time they run out."

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/579Articles in the Australia Financial
Review and the Financial Post in
Canada, plus comment about a report
on CNBC.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

Hi Sir Hill Billy!

"But a physical gold holder does not have to contend with the disadvantage of timing his actions on a
short-term basis." -Hill Billy Mitchell msg#: 43031

I agree! Your wording is a significant improvement!! Thanx!

High regards,
Journeyman

Any manufacturing facility running close to 95% is running "flat out" and effectively sold out.

Let me offer this, though it can scarcely be called an answer to your question. (But for that, we need look no further than ET's recent post of Ed Bugos' words: "...unfortunately we cannot trust the market mechanism today because as we have shown in past commentary, discretionary monetary policy has skewed / distorted it.")

I perceive there to be in the minds of many an unnatural (or dare I say unhealthy?) focus these days upon "price performance" of virtually every tradable asset. It leaves the impression on a casual observer that suddenly life is meant to be traded rather than lived.

To make my point better, I refer you to a television commercial I saw today during the evening news broadcast. A woman ends up sharing a taxi with a man whom she discerns to be a broker for Fidelity. She uses the opportunity to ask him about her management options regarding a 401(k) she still has from three jobs ago. Upon hearing his professional remarks about rollovers and consolidation, she considered the prospect. "Hmmmm. My life...reduced to one sheet of paper. I like that." Her LIFE -- indeed. It seems that many of these people have a blurred sense of the point where paper ends and life reigns.

Journeyman offered an exceptional post, and a portion bears repeating here [with small amendment]:
Journeyman (12/5/2000; 12:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 43027)
"And you haven't beaten the goldbug until you cash-out that final option [or stock, or bond, or I.O.U.] and bank the buying power you've won. And you might not want to bank it in $$ right now." [If you see clear to exchange "the buying power you've won" for tangible assets while this buying power remains, this wealth endures and contributes to your life for as long as you retain possession.]

As LIVING creatures, when cold, are we not glad to put on a coat in our time of need, never once requiring a quote of current market resale price to appreciate or benefit from its wealth value?

As living creatures, when tired, are we not able to enjoy the comforts of a chair placed nearby quite independent of its tradable price?

When hungry, are we not comforted more by the can of soup upon our shelves than by its price?

When diagnosed with medical malady, are we not glad indeed for the insurance policy at hand, and equally so for a hospital mindful enough to be well-supplied with medical equipment rather than investment portfolios and ledger upon ledger of government grant money?

Real life in its entirety is no more about the size of one's account as it is about the possession of tangible assets...that is, until the previous expectation of good performance/exchangeability of that account is found to be a poor substitute for the needs of a living creature. As productive beings worldwide, we all have the right to pursue and compete for creature comforts and tangible wealth assets with the fruits of our productivity.

Where does gold fit in? Everywhere that tangible assets are desired for living a life in fullest control of one's productive earnings, held safely beyond the ever-diminishing (and sometimes plummeting) fates of national currencies. Gold serves where there is no immediate need for additional coats or chairs, and where universal liquidity and acceptability are desired for flexibility upon anticipation of future reallocations and adjustments to the totality of the tangible assets held within reach.

A friend recently returned from a trip to India, including stays in Calcutta and New Delhi. I was told of the luxury hotels where the price for a night's stay was $7...properly reflecting the LOCAL scarcity (and monetary value) of our U.S. dollar. This translates to less than one gram of gold for a night's stay...also properly reflecting the general scarcity and value of this gold as a tangible monetary asset. If gold can be said to be generally as scarce in the U.S. as it is in India, can you catch a fleeting glimpse of gold's potential for repricing to reflect a more consistent respect for its relative dearness?

http://www.dawn.com/2000/12/06/ebr15.htmIn addition to this article, I suggest you refer to the additional context of the current movement toward contibility of the Renminbi as provided in an earlier post (see the archives -- Randy (11/24/2000; usagold.com msg#: 42119) )

Reuters reports today from Hong Kong:
"In conjunction with its entry into the WTO, Beijing is taking steps to liberalise the gold industry. In November, it announced plans to set up a national gold exchange for physical gold trade among commercial banks by the end of the year.

Hong Kong's historic trade figures suggest this Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China should be sinking under a mountain of gold.

In 1999, Hong Kong imported 120 tonnes of gold and officially re-exported just 11 tonnes: consumption 109 tons. In 1998, it imported nearly 232.5 tons and re-exported less than 25 tons: consumption 207.5 tons.

The peak seems to have been in 1997, when the SAR imported more than 434 tons but re-exported just 7.5 tons: consumption a whopping 427 tons.

By contrast, Taiwan imported 84.2 tons of gold in 1999, equal to 3.66 grams per person for its population of 23 million."
----
On the whole, I would call the developing situation in China a reservoir of untapped potential.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/boardacts/2000/20001205/default.htmFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 5, 2000

AGENCIES ISSUE INTERIM CAPITAL RULE FOR COLLATERAL
IN SECURITIES BORROWINGS
The federal bank regulatory agencies today issued and requested public comment on an interim rule revising the risk-based capital treatment of cash collateral posted in connection with certain securities borrowing transactions. The agencies are also requesting comment on the capital treatment of securities borrowing transactions where securities are posted as collateral. The rule applies only to those banking organizations with significant trading activities that are subject to capital treatment under the market risk rules.

The interim rule, published in the Federal Register by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, provides a capital treatment for U.S. banking organizations that is more in line with the capital treatment applied to their domestic and foreign competitors.

The interim rule is effective January 4, 2001. U.S. banking organizations may apply the provisions of this interim rule beginning December 5, 2000. Comments on the rule are due by January 19, 2001.

Neither the Basel Accord nor the risk-based capital guidelines adopted by the three agencies specifically address securities borrowing transactions. The Accord is an international framework for assessing the capital adequacy of depository institutions by risk weighting their assets and off-balance sheet exposures and serves as a basis for the banking agencies' risk-based capital guidelines. In recent years, U.S. banking organizations have experienced rapid growth in securities borrowing transactions, which are used for various purposes, including short sales and securities fails (securities sold but not made available for delivery on the settlement date), and in conjunction with option and arbitrage positions.

The agencies recognize that securities borrowing is a long-established financial activity that historically has resulted in an exceedingly low level of losses. The interim rule recognizes this low risk and effectively lowers the capital requirement associated with these transactions. The interim rule is attached. (29 KB PDF)





View Yesterday's Discussion.

NY Precious Metals Review: PGMs down after Monday rally New York--Dec. 5--NYMEX Jan platinum futures settled down $14.7 at $607.4 per ounce Tuesday amid profit-taking, more than giving back all of Monday's gains. Mar palladium settled down $12.0 at $868.0 per ounce, only trimming Monday's hefty advance that brought the contract to an all-time high. Gold and silver held range-bound, unshaken by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's equity-market bullish speech.

OF INTEREST: US DLA sold 5,313.48 oz palladium on Monday New York--Dec. 5--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency sold a total of 5,313.48 troy ounces of palladium from its Web site sales Monday.

FULL: Stillwater Mining gets up to $250 mln financing New York--Dec. 5--Stillwater Mining Co. received a total of $250 million in credit facilities of varying terms from TD Securities (USA) Inc. Stillwater said the financing was made possible by several long-term contracts the company received, resulting in its minimum floor prices being raised through 2010. --Anthony Kurian, BridgeNews

US DLA sold 57,836 oz palladium during November New York--Dec. 5--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency announced Tuesday the aggregated November platinum group metals sales results. During November, the DLA sold 57,836 oz of palladium for an overall value of approximately $45.6 million.

Europe Precious Metals Review: PGMs hold on highs in thin trade London--Dec. 5--Spot platinum and palladium remained steady on the recent highs Tuesday although volumes continued to be thin throughout the morning session. Sources said profit-taking is possible with the entry of the U.S. market this afternoon, however, with buying interest likely to be less frequent near-term. Gold meanwhile held relatively steady as the market benefited from the fresh impetus in the rest of the complex

Black Blade: PGM stockpiles in Russia are essentially gone. There is none left. Now the users of PGMs are milking every possible source. The US Strategic Defense stockpile (US Defense Logistics Agency) is running low. The pressure on PGMs could ease a bit as auto-makers are cutting back production due to the slowing economy. Equities prices in the auto industry have fallen like lead balloons over the last few months and should continue to do so. The real story in the PGM trade is that Russia cannot deliver and now official holders are being squeezed.

--NY Jan crude down 43c; continues dive despite API stock drop
--NY Jan crude down 48c, continues dive before API data
--NY Jan heating oil down 121 points as API stockpiles climb
--NY Jan gasoline down 22 points as API stockpiles rise
--API: US crude stocks down 3.729 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US distillate stocks up 3.289 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US gasoline stocks up 3.239 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US refineries operate at 93.0% in latest wk vs 91.8%
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.12 mln bpd vs 8.29 mln
--APIs imply US distillate demand 3.68 mln bpd vs 3.83 mln
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.12 mln bpd vs 8.29 mln

By Karyn Peterson, John Troland and Peter Rosenthal, BridgeNews
New York--Dec. 5--NYMEX energy futures fell in overnight Access trade
as American Petroleum Institute data showed much-larger-than-expected
gains last week of 3.289 million barrels in distillates, which include
heating oil and diesel fuel, and 3.239 million barrels in gasoline
inventories. The builds overshadowed a surprising decline of 3.729 million barrels in crude.

API also reported that U.S. refinery rates rose 1.2 basis points of
capacity, far exceeding expectations that runs would rise 0.3-0.7 a point. At 1719 ET, NYMEX nearby Jan WTI crude was down 30 cents at $29.23 a barrel, after trimming some earlier after-market losses, when it hit a low of $28.95 just ahead of the data. Jan heating oil was down 146 points at 96.20c a gallon and Jan gasoline was down 22 points at 76.00c a gallon.

Black Blade: Refinery capacity is edging up as a few refineries shutdown for required maintenance. Most refineries have not taken scheduled maintenance during this period of higher profit margins. Crude stockpiles have dropped sharply while distillates rose. More important is that the Brent North Sea oil fell within the price band set by OPEC, and now the clock is reset � there will definitely be more production increases until the price of oil exceeds $28.00/bbl for 20 consecutive trading days. Couple that with plans for OPEC production cuts in January to offset expected slowdown in petroleum and petroleum product use in the second quarter. More important that oil, which is not necessarily in a supply deficit, is Natural Gas, as follows:

By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews New York--Dec. 5--December natural gas for next day delivery was strong across the board amid robust demand caused by cold weather in several key consuming regions.

NYMEX Jan Henry Hub natural gas futures settled down 4.9 cents at $7.384 per MMBtu after matching its new all-time high of $7.950 early in the session. The market was pressured by moderating forecasts, a massive sell-off in the crude oil market and long liquidation ahead of another increase to natural gas margins at Tuesday's close. Meanwhile, cash prices was strong across the board with New York citygate prices hitting the $23 mark and Topock trading as high as $28 per MMBtu. "Cash is trading 30 cents over the screen," one cash trader said. "You have to recognize that's not hype in the market--that's real demand." U.S. Gulf natural gas traded at $7.81 to $8.30 per MMBtu, up 37 to 78 cents from Monday's $7.03 to $7.93 range. Midcontinent natural gas traded at $7.75 to $8.38 per MMBtu, up 74 to 76 cents from Monday's $7.01 to $7.62 range Western gas traded in a range from $7.44 to $28.00 per MMBtu, up 56 cents to $5.00 from Monday's $6.88 to $23.00 range. In Canada, day gas at Nova's AECO-C Hub traded in a range of C$9.95 to $10.65 per gigajoule compared to Monday's C$9.40 to $10.18 range. TransCanada reported Alberta line-pack at 13.674 bcf, with the pipeline drafting at a rate of 75 MMcf/d. Colder-than-usual
weather has been a frequent visitor to the eastern United States the past few weeks. The cold has spurred periods of stronger-than-usual natural gas, heating oil and coal consumption. However, that tendency will end with the current episode under way. Most of the colder weather bias will shift west by this time next week, bringing the eastern states a break in strong fuel demand, according to Bridge Global Weather Services.

Black Blade: I only add that there is no SPR for NG, imports are extremely unlikely, exploration and production from new fields require a lot of time and the building of delivery infrastructure. Get extra blankets and start chopping wood!

Randy
Your post, in which you said, "as living creatures, when cold, are we not glad to put on a coat in our time of need, never once requiring a quote of current market resale price to appreciate or benefit from its wealth value"

I have not seen, put in words, a better explaination of my feelings, than those contained in this post. I know there is no real other way of discussing the value of gold than in comparison with the dollar, but it seems so many people just want to make more dollars, and I find that somewhat sad, in light of my view of the future.

Journeyman
Hi There my friend.
While I agree with the thrust of your predictions post of yesterday, I felt it was a bit all encompassing. When the front of an automobile, travelling in a straight line at 90 degrees to an immovable obstacle such as a brick wall, first touches the obstacle, the is a high degree of certainty that the back of the car will slow to a stop soon.

Best regards
j'Bear

NG on it's way to $8.00+/Mbtu. In spite of an increase in distillate inventories, the crude inventory picture still looks tight as much of the "in transit" SPR oil has left the US. The unexpected inventory increase in crude over the last two weeks is attributable to SPR oil that was locked-up in loading facilities and for some reason, was included in Crude oil inventories. NG is listed at official prices of around $7.60/Mbtu, yet the NG open-marketers sell NG at varying prices and sometimes at the rate of tens of dollars per Mbtu (example � southern California).

Natural Gas 7.625 +0.241 +3.26 %
Crude Oil 29.72 +0.19 +0.64 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.762 -0.0002 -0.03 %
Heating Oil 0.97 -0.0066 -0.68 %

Even Cheeta (AG) today said that higher petroleum costs are an inflationary threat and that there is a risk of spill-over into the economy. Give that "Man" a banana!

Gold did actually trade over 300,000 contracts the otherday didint it?? I thought that must have been a typo, but it was not is it? Who sold all those contracts?? Who the heck would get in the way of that many contracts. Man if that was not a day that gold was held back, I might never see one, but then again we seem to be treated to more treats all along the way here then I could ever believe.

Trail guide I am glad you have shared the plan. Cause if I would not have read all your posts I would have no physical(or harldy any), and I would be watching what is going on so lost, I could not even comprehend this. But manipulation, now that makes sense. That explains alot about this Gold deal.

The following is probably not a too overly fictitious account of the PGM trade:

The Russians have been in a hard currency crunch and have sold off most anything of value, even before the "Russian Bonds" default not so long ago. Add to this the pervasive corruption and new Russian-style capital cronyism and organized crime in the new Russian economy, and you have the potential for some interesting situations. The following is a typical phone conversation that could be expected between Mr. Ivan Kosegin, a minor Russian finance minister in charge of international PGM exports and Mr. Yoshido, a minor manager in charge of TOCOM PGM derivatives. The names have been changed - not necessarily to protect the innocent - because there are no innocents here:

Yoshido: "Ivan, how are you my friend?"

Kosegin: " I am quite fine, and how are you?"

Yoshido: "I am also doing well. The reason I am calling you is because my superiors are pressing me to know when you are going to deliver the 15,000,000 ounces of palladium and platinum that we contracted for over a year ago."

Kosegin: "Don't worry Yoshido, I will get on it next month."

Yoshido: "But you said that last month, and the month before that. We had to default on our contracts once already, and it could be a really big problem if we do that again. I hate to be a bother, but I reeeally need to know when we will get the metal delivered. Our biggest client Sushi Motors is running out of palladium for auto catalysts, and they will be completely out in a couple of weeks - then my ass in on the line. It is unfortunate, but they wish to take delivery starting next week. If I don't deliver, Sushi Motors will make Sushi out of me! Come on Ivan, this isn't funny anymore. I'm on the hook for 15,000,000 ounces of palladium!"

Kosegin: "Look my friend, don't worry, it is just a little problem with the paper work. You know, export licenses�.that kind of thing. Call me next month"

Yoshido: "You have been saying that for months now Ivan. I'm running out of time. If I don't get that palladium, Sushi Motors will have to stop production, the workers will riot, palladium prices will soar, the TOCOM will be exposed as a fraud, and I will go to prison."

Kosegin: "May I suggest that you don't bend over to pick up the soap?"

Yoshido: "Huh?"

Kosegin: "OK, bad joke, look - I'm going to come clean with you. We haven't had any palladium or platinum for years. Some former Soviet ministers and some Cosak Crime bosses raided the Gokhran and Norilsk Nickel stockpiles. There just isn't any metal left - none, zippo, nada."

Yoshido: "WHAT!!!, What the hell do you mean that there isn't any metal left! What the F*&% happened?"

Kosegin: "Hey, don't get testy with me you little shrimp! You wanted me to sell you contracts, so I sold you contracts, why I got a mountain of contracts"

Yoshido: "Look you Bloody Barbarian Cosak, you are supposed to have the metal on hand to back up those contracts! What hell happened to all that Palladium and Platinum you said you had?"

Kosegin: "I don't know, my superiors said something about defaulted Russian Bonds, IMF, and need hard currency right now, and besides���. Hey, you sold those same contracts to others like Sushi Motors. Looks like you got a problem there. Whoever expected that anyone would actually want to take delivery? I've been selling contracts to lots of people. Besides, I only sell contracts and some black market Stolichnya, I don't sell metals, selling metals is someone else's job"

Yoshido: (unintelligible)

Kosegin: "Say, want to buy some more?"

Yoshido: (click)

Kosegin: "Hello?"

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/vanEedenGold.htmlHaving just now had a chance to read Mr van Eedens tome at the above link. Tks Randy!
What struck me, in light of DavidG's 1 megaton above ground guesstimate, was:- the "inflation rate" of Gold, ie: Gold is being "inflated" at (say) 2500 TPA on a 1 MT base - an inflation rate of .25%.
If DG's stats are anywhere near correct, perhaps leasing Gold @ 1% pa in specie interest makes good economic sense IMO.

I think I've met your Mr Kosegin.
He tried to sell me a container load of Rusky rifles - Semi-autos, The deal was to sell them to the gov't during the gun buy-back here. 900% profit on $20K. Piked out though - luckily! prolly wouldna delivered!!

Hold gold down long enough and bankrupt /force industry into elite few.

Run the price short term upside and you've got'um, hold it down and you've got 'um. asl etc.

end of story.

For weeks/months refineries were running 95%/96% indictating flat out.

Last week's 91.8% is a significant drop. Gasoline in my area gas dropped 12% when it has been suggested that gasoline will soar due to refinery shift from 'gasoline' (in the summer) to 'heating oil'.

There is more to this than meets the eye.

The oil drop on Iraq (production halt) and a further drop (resumption) is evidence of this.

BB suggests that oil climb may resume if OPEC cuts production in Jan. (I have only heard no more production) and obviously oil is dropping now due to receding economy.

So, where is oil heading? Anyone's GUESS.

And throw in the unknown political agenda and the guess becomes more clouded, IMHO.

The bottom line here is it's not making much sense as alluded by Randy earlier.

Thanks

Tonights Natural Gas price is up another 7%. This one here seems to be pure supply and demand. No reserves in this one I dont think. And they are suggesting the coldest coldsnap to hit the midwest in 6 years next week. Lets see just how much money has been created out there?? How much will people be willing to pay to stay comfortable?? Looks like it is going to have to be alot.

For the best inflation scenario they can get, they want to have as high of a stock evaluations as possable I am sure. People must feel they can afford this cost of energy to actually pay it.

http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtmlNG BLASTS PAST $8.00 Mbtu!

Natural Gas 8.03 +0.646 +8.75 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.7685 +0.0063 +0.83 %
Crude Oil 29.75 +0.22 +0.75 %
Heating Oil 0.976 -0.0006 -0.06 %

Check out the link above for local NG prices near you!

ITS ripping right now!! AHHA Blake Blade you must have a beer cracked for this one!! Cheers to you. (actually this is sad, but I am laughing anyhow)

Oro,

I read your comments from yeseterday. I was slightly confused by your conclusion. You seemed to say (or so I read) that the market (other than .dot coms and tele(coms) were poised for a come back. Then you concluded that the dollar was not backed by gold-faith any longer and to watch out. I see the upswing yesterday as a a wild gyration in a system out of homeostasis(sp?). In other words, the NASDAQ is vibrating more and more out of control, until...pooof...it breaks. My friend Roger (a PhD in vibrational mechanics)used to tell me, "Steve, vibration is the worst enemy of anything mechanical. The more there are vibrations the quicker something will break."

No wonder a record setting day happened yesterday on the Duck. It has record down days then a record up day. This fits Roger's observtion closely. The winds are rocking the Duck bridge and there are cars on it. The harmonics are stress the entire structure.

I read the other day a great description of the Duck (not to mix metaphors). The poster said that the Duck was like the Rock rolling down a steep hill that just hit a jutting boulder, glancing high into the air, with no friction of the ground to slow its regain of downward movement.

This morning we find ourselves with yet another profit warning of a major computer manufacturer (Apple) and the Duck futures (as well as DOW and S&P) are below fair value.

Getting back to vibration. The gold market appears to be a market that was getting wider and wider swings, but is now being held in vibrational check by fingers pressing both sides of the market. If either side let's go their pressure point, the market will (like the Duck) break free and start to swing wildly until it too breaks. Do you hear the sound of the high-pitched vibrations caused by these market pressures? I do.

Source: Peoples Beijing Daily

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has been authorized to take a harsh action toward foreign countries or companies which resell Iraq's oil to its enemies, the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported on Saturday, December 2. The decision was made at a cabinet meeting chaired by the Iraqi president on Saturday. In the case, any foreign countries or oil companies, which are proved to resell Iraq's crude to its enemies, will be put on "a black list" and be forbidden from acquiring Iraq's oil again or doing business with the UN sanctions-hit country, the INA said. Iraq has been under UN sanctions ever since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Under the oil-for-food deal in 1996, Iraq is allowed to export 2.4 million barrels of oil a day in exchange for humanitarian goods.

Iraq's latest move seems to be primarily directed against the United States, which has been regarded by Iraq as its number one enemy for blocking the lift of the U.N. sanctions. A recent report by the US Department of Energy said that American oil companies, directly or indirectly, bought an average of 725,000 barrels of Iraqi oil a day last year, accounting for 7.3 percent of the US oil imports. Iraq's oil has been exported via two main outlets: Ceyhan, Turkey in the north and Iraq's southern port city of Al-Baker. Iraq has intensified its anti-sanctions efforts this year and has taken numerous moves to challenge the UN Sanctions Committee which is dominated by the US and Britain. This could be manifested by another decision taken by the cabinet meeting to upgrade the Saddam International Airport, which was reopened on August 17 in defiance of the air embargo insisted by the US and Britain. The international airport has become dilapidated after a closure of 10 years.

Black Blade: Ah Shucks!

now.

http://go-here.to/secret_history
I stumbled across this at the above link. Someone here post this before? Down-loadable book entitled: Secret History of the Oil Companies in the Middle East, probably something that Another and FOA/TG have referred to in the past. I got me some reading to do.

- Black Blade

Rockgrabber: Yes, it is sad, however, the US and the rest of the world had fair warning and over 30 years to prepare. They just squandered the opportunity, and now it's time to "pay the piper." That's what happens when one procrastinates. Now, I think I'll crack a beer - only going outside in a while to whack some ducks and geese. Cheers!

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmCurrencies rising against the US Dollar - even the Aussie Peso! Musta been the vegamite. Right Topaz and Zenidea?

Winter must be cold for those with no warm memories. (an affair to remember)

We are not meant to be alone.

get some gold reestablish the memories!

My take on the equities market:

Greenspans speech was the opposite of the "irrational exuberance" speech. It should be called the "irrational despondancy" speech.

I do not buy the accepted line that this market has been gyrating with the swings in the election uncertainty. I do not discount that the fact that uncertainty does not effect the market however this market for quite some time and especially since November 7 has been reacting to basic economic fact when one factors out the efforts of the PPT which have been orchestrated in such a way as to appear to be a result of the psychological hopes that the resolution of the presidential contest has finally arrived.

When Greenspan made his now famous "irrational exuberance" speech he moved the market in much the same way as he did yesterday only the opposite direction. If I recall the impact of his speech was short lived. I believe that the main reason the effects of that speech were short-lived was because they were only words and were not backed up with any action whatsoever.

He has no plans of backing up yesterday's speech with actions. I believe that he is very fearful that this economy is laced with the arsenic of latent inflation. He knows that the arsenic is a result of his own actions.

We are about to see this market resume its march down the road of reality. As the numbers come in the market is going to react to them. Those in the know have already removed the wealth that they cannot afford to loose from the market. The big time market makers and gamblers will be in there to the last trying to wring out the last ounce of flesh. Very few of these types will escape financial disaster.

The affects of the "irrational despondency" speech read from a prepared script yesterday will soon dissappear into oblivion. IMNSHO

HBM

http://www.asiawise.com/mainpage.asp?mainaction=31≠wsfeedid=303585§ionid=§ionname=

Reuters
5 Dec 2000 17:38 (GMT +08:00)
By Kathleen Kearney

HONG KONG, Dec 5 (Reuters) - China's ongoing crackdown on corruption and smuggling has caught the precious metals trade in its net and the exercise is digging deeper than previous efforts, gold industry sources in Hong Kong said. But most maintain the volumes of illicit gold shipments to China via Hong Kong and Shenzhen have fallen dramatically in recent years. Talk of the most recent crackdown has circulated in the Hong Kong gold market in recent weeks, but there has been no official announcement of any new operation. Officials contacted at the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, the central bank and the entity responsible for all of China's authorised gold imports, declined to comment on the crackdown rumours. "This one is more serious than in the past because of China's entry into WTO," said Desmond Wong, senior manager at Standard London (Asia) in Hong Kong. "The government has to do something to show that they are trying to stop this smuggling." The timing is important. In conjunction with its entry into the WTO, Beijing is taking steps to liberalise the gold industry. In November, it announced plans to set up a national gold exchange for physical gold trade among commercial banks by the end of the year.

BULLION ENTREPOT

Hong Kong's historic trade figures suggest this Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China should be sinking under a mountain of gold. In 1999, Hong Kong imported 120 tonnes of gold and officially re-exported just 11 tonnes: consumption 109 tonnes. In 1998, it imported nearly 232.5 tonnes and re-exported less than 25 tonnes: consumption 207.5 tonnes. The peak seems to have been in 1997, when the SAR imported more than 434 tonnes but re-exported just 7.5 tonnes: consumption a whopping 427 tonnes. By contrast, Taiwan imported 84.2 tonnes of gold in 1999, equal to 3.66 grams per person for its population of 23 million. "Hong Kong is a transhipment center and the imports in the last few years have been quite a lot, but not like in the good old days," said Emily Li, manager of the World Gold Council's office in Hong Kong. "The market cannot absorb that big an amount so it would go onward to other markets in the surrounding area," Li said. The Hong Kong figures suggest an enormous unclassified gold trade with its neighbors. "The international houses are not involved, but each party participates in a certain part of the operation and they don t want to ask questions about the next part," one banker based in Hong Kong said. "But there is no way of stopping those people taking it to the secondary market," he added. But if this year's trade figures are any indication, China's two-year (1998-99) clampdown on smuggling has had a dramatic impact on Hong Kong's gold trade. In the first eight months of 2000, Hong Kong imported about 51 tonnes of gold and re-exported 18.5 tonnes. That equals consumption of about 32.5 tonnes for the territory's 6.6 million and its 12 million visitors or just 1.75 grams per person.

LEGAL IMPORTS

Gold and other precious metals have not figured in the biggest smuggling cases this year. Goods involved in the three billion yuan (US$360 million) smuggling scandal in Xiamen involved chiefly smuggled firearms, cars and crude oil. "Cases of gold smuggling are very rare," said Peter Tiu, senior information officer for the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department. The Hong Kong authorities have a close working relationship with Shenzhen Special Economic Zone customs officials and meet frequently to assess operations and "exchange intelligence", Tiu said. The Hong Kong side had not been informed of any ongoing crackdown on precious metals, he added. Beijing has been taking steps to fill the gap between domestic demand of about 200 tonnes a year and production at about 175 tonnes a year. In June, the People's Bank entered into an agreement with South African investment bank Investec to buy a minimum of 15 tonnes of gold a year. The central bank already has a two-year-old agreement with UBS Warburg to take gold on consignment. The gold is shipped via Hong Kong to the PBOC's Shenzhen branch. Neither party has disclosed the amounts in the agreement, but it is believed to be about 12 tonnes a year. In addition, in the past two years China has brought the domestic gold price more in line with the international price. The People's Bank of China adjusts the domestic price of gold on a more frequent basis than previously, thus preventing a large price differential, and speculative opportunity, from opening up, traders said. The domestic price has been adjusted about 10 times this year, said Y.H. Chan, manager at Po Sang Bank in Hong Kong. "The current price is 73.50 yuan per gram, or US$276.12 per ounce, excluding value added tax," Chan said. That price, while higher than international spot prices, is not sufficiently high to entice smugglers, traders said. (US$ = 8.28 yuan)

Black Blade: It would be nice to say "Over 1 billion served" and not be referring to some gray meat on a sesame seed bun. Sales by the end of the year - Hmmmm��� Why smuggle that barbarous relic ;-)

NG Powered Rocket!

Natural Gas 8.43 +1.046 +14.17 %
Heating Oil 1.017 +0.0404 +4.14 %
Crude Oil 30.14 +0.61 +2.07 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.777 +0.0148 +1.94 %

Now this is just getting plain scary!

fire head coach. Hire new oriental head coach.

Win Won Soon.

http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtmlUnbelievable! Straight line upward! What's that you say Cheeta? No inflation? Yeah, Right!

Natural Gas 8.7 +1.316 +17.82 %
Heating Oil 1.017 +0.0404 +4.14 %
Crude Oil 30.14 +0.61 +2.07 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.777 +0.0148 +1.94 %

NG back down to $8.30, and now Crude is coming to life on weakened US Dollar.

Gold for Feb delivery must break 274.50 on a closing basis.

Easy Al has been raising rates and making money easy, just more expensive.

Will he now begin to lower rates and makes money more restrictive?

He is a real dichotomy.

Due to extremely high volatility, all orders for Natural Gas futures and options are currently being accepted on a not-held basis. In addition, all cancel replace orders must be taken to the market.

To the moon Alice!

We shall sink the U.S. Dollar !! Bye dollar hello yellow..

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/RS24.pdfInteresting study for cognoscenti - commissioned by the World Gold Council.

Best wishes to all

beans, limit up soon

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlWe have two messages for our clientele this morning:

First, if you are thinking about The
Gift of Gold, we ask you to act
quickly. We have had a very strong
response to our jewelry offer already
and we want to make sure we get
everyone taken care of. Please don't
wait until the fifteenth and then
inundate us. I know that most of my
male counterparts are like I am and
wait 'til the very last moment to do
their Christmas shopping. (I used to
do mine on Christmas Eve!) Try to
overcome that seemingly innate and
instinctive approach to the Season
and order now. If you don't get that
order in soon, you'll be forced to
the mall jewelry store and all that
it implies, i.e., higher prices,
crowds, pushy shoppers, phony
Christmas cheer... . . the works. Do
it the easy way this year. Just
contact Marie at 800-869-5115 and
she will make it easy for you. To
get an idea what's available, click on the Gift of Gold link at top of page.

Second, we are almost sold out of
the Dutch Kings, a
couple nice sized orders and they
will be gone. If you have an interest
in these items, we encourage you to
order as soon as feasible. Remember
the Confederatios!! For more info, please click atop this message.

http://www.usagold.com
Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

http://www.usagold.com
Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

http://www.usagold.com
Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

http://www.usagold.comtest

Looking goodUp Up and Away

$hifty

http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.aspSo We Crashed The Gate Doing 98, Let Those Goldhearts Roll!
Goldfly are you out there?
.....beesting.

I've been wanting to ask the following question. Had a minute before flying off....

I think I remember you saying you became an acquaintance of Another (aka, FOA) sometime after the '87 crash. I believe at that time you said and I paraphrase, there was a realization of how a US equity market convulsion could impact large, dollar holders. Since that time, we have seen an enormous bull market and stock valuations increase significantly relative to historic valuation norms.

Now, if you are a smart equity trader like a certain stranger I know, you possibly have and might continue to understand such a dynamic and profit from it. Alas, poor CM is not so smart.

My question is this (and I ask in the context of an inquisitor who does believe the volatility we witness in US equity markets is not normal although perhaps a profitiable dynamic to leverage if you have the skill): what do your friends think now, today; of the movements of equity values in US markets? Thanks....CM

Could it be that Goldman Sachs and friends would love to bomb the gold price today but..... too many people know what they are up to and are watching?

$hifty

I was working on 3-4 other items at the same time, so I dropped the caveats and simplified the conclusions and discussions so that I could just send it out. The point I was making was that the Fed was concerned with bank viability more so than with price effects or exchange effects. The results of such shifts in concerns in the past have been to cause nominal consumption increases at the consumer level - both as hedges against the low "real" return on investment and for the purpose of plain "consume now - pay later". The basic industry sector will then find its order books filled as its customers in the consumer cyclical and staples arena start hoarding. These latter companies will face higher prices before the industrials do. Thus profit in this sector will grow with the drop in the dollar and the reflection of that in the tendency to hoard industrial commodities. This is the beginning of the "crack up boom" process.

This is not to say that price inflation adjusted stock values would rise, but it is an indication that particular sectors - moving down along the supply chain away from the consumer will perform positively. Particularly industries competing with global producers.

The process involves the release of funds needed by the banks through the purchase of treasuries by the Fed and friends (now there are no such friends). These are not wanted by the depositors at the banks and holders of financial assets, who promptly dispose of the funds in the market for goods. The result is a move from labor led pricing to resource based pricing. The funds not invested in the resource industries over the years will be invested when they demonstrate high profitability. It should be noted that the high dollar has had an outsize effect in both the supply and demand side of the developing nations: the "real" dollar burden forced the foreign producers to prefer dollars to their local currency, thus increasing supply. And put a payment burden on the consumer side where demand was squelched by the growth in the share of income going to defray government's dollar debt.

A low dollar will do the exact opposite - lower the burden on developing market consumers, and reducing the supply to the industrial world. That is what happened in the late 60s when Europe started consuming after decades of reconstruction, and in the 70s when Japanese did the same. The 150 million people who have joined the industrial economy over the past 20 years in South East Asia, now have another 150 million Indians, 200 million Chinese, and 70 million (or so) South Americans to join them. Easing the dollar debt burden on them would make it possible for them to consume and reinvest locally a greater portion of their production.

I am not forecasting a US stock market rally, but I am pointing out that some resource stocks and basic industry stocks will do well.

Besides this, some stocks are just plain dirt cheap.

I hope this clears up things some.

Black Blade. (smiles) Yep I suspect A$ should tack along with gold , considering Au is one of the more significant
export earners here and she ( Au ) certainly looks like the labour pains are shortening. Geepers another hike upward just then.
Kicking myself to death over selling off the Pd, for a % and not haveing the patience come nerve to hang in there dispite the fundamentals.
Got a local family of ducks on the farmlet here to , Kookaburra's hence no snakes, Guinia Fowl , marron , heaps of different parrots , white and some red tailed cockatoos,
and occasionally if lucky one spots the superb blue or fairy wren At this altitude in the clear night sky's the stars are brilliant and often the missis and I sit outside watching the milky way on its move from our prospective dreaming about the simple life :).. but alas for the most part its back to the city lights to pay the bills.

http://www.futuresource.com/reg/cgi-bin/art?001206/072058Baghdad--Dec. 6 (Bridge News)--Iraq is expected to accept the latest six-month extension of its oil-for-food deal with the United Nations. . . . The UN Security Council agreed on Tuesday to extend the program, under which sanctions-hit Iraq exports crude in return for humanitarian supplies, for six months and to streamline its vetting procedures to speed up delivery of supplies.
+
It also agreed in principle to release up to 600 million euros of Iraq's oil income in cash from the tightly controlled UN account to train and pay maintenance workers...
-----
Even the mightiest oak we see today was once a tiny acorn. Could the spreading roots collapse the foundation of YOUR financial house?

Sir CM, I'm as you know by now the worst short term indicator - or better contrary (s.t.) indicator!
And as some trader said - if you feel the urge to buy - sell! and vice versa - ... may be right short term ...

I just felt the urge to buy more - both physical and major, yes and some minor mines -long term - ...

Thanks to GWB and Algae, I've picked the one and only wrong day available - ...

Do I care? Yes, in a sense of being "Greenbushed"!
- how desperate can you get - Algae all over your face?
No, in a sense of accumulating value ... and a few percentage points are meaningless as the "Duck" performed yesteryears reminiscences in a day trade -
too late to reform old cb2 - regards ... so what, I've got some more gold at rock bottom ...

Black Blade just saw your post re Au HK/China etc. The wife has a we business in HK and weve been to the special economic Zone Shenzhen. It weird to not see any Jewelry shops glittering with the bright yellow metal as contrasted with HK. Personaly my first impressions of Shenzhen is that the place is overrun with pickpockets and beggars but then again I might be bias, on the third attempt some shit nicked 5,000.00 from the wifes bag , Thank heavens I had just enough stashed in my front pocket to get back across the border. One cant feel the hand go in but can feel it coming out.
Gee actually I hope the Aussie $ stays where it is , I am happy complaining about it being where it is. The HK- AU$
exchange is kissable at the moment.
I heard a we rumour that there has been a we platinum find in Western Australia , have you heard anything Black Blade /
Topaz?. Incidentially Topaz like the name :)... I often went to a place in North Queensland just west of a place called Mount Surprise , about one kilometer past the one horse township turn right , follow all the signs that say tresspassers shot other with skulls and crossbones etc etc all with millions of bullet holes in them ( you will know your on the right track) just after the wet season, and you will find all the topaz in the world.
Sir Randy@ tower , bless your precious heart ! it works :)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2000/20001205.htmSpeech titled, "Structural changes in the economy and financial markets" delivered at the America's Community Bankers Conference, New York -- December 5, 2000

"For a long time, those who were advancing funds shared the sanguine expectations of those using the funds for rapid increases in profits and incomes, and credit and equity were available with unusually low risk spreads.

"During the past couple of years, however, the widespread optimism that was apparent in financial markets has given way to some reassessment of risks and opportunities. This process has been underway ever since the global financial crisis in the fall of 1998. That episode forced many market participants to recognize the potential for international risks to feed back on U.S. markets. Events brought into sharper focus the possibility that liquidity in many markets can dry up simultaneously when fear spurs risk aversion, and an intense, near-term focus on protecting capital values markedly elevates the demand for liquidity. Markets largely recovered from that episode, but an imprint was left in the form of wider credit spreads and more cautious behavior on the part of banks and other lenders.

"Recently, wariness about risk again has increased as default rates on less than investment-grade bonds have moved higher, debt downgrades have become more commonplace, and many high-flying dot-com ventures have collapsed. More broadly, equity market analysts have been revising down their near-term profit forecasts--with revisions occurring across a range of industries.

"As a consequence, stock prices this year have given back some of the extraordinary gains posted in recent years, risk spreads have widened appreciably in markets for lower-rated long-term and short-term credits, and--as I'll be discussing in more detail later--banks report that they have tightened terms and standards on business loans."
[...]
"In closing, the transition of the U.S. economy to a more sustainable supply-demand relationship is posing challenges for businesses, banks, and monetary policymakers. How well banks perform under these conditions will depend on their ability to continuously reevaluate previously held assumptions and adapt to change."
-----
Unlike peaches and dreams, gold does not spoil or fade over time.

The psychology of the market has changed away from the momentum thinking of the past 5 years. The ramp up yesterday was net funded from ouside the markets - by someone like the Fed.

How do you see this? Had the funding come from within the markets, there should have been at least one major asset losing value as it is sold in order to purchase stock, and the seller moves elsewhere. The concurrent move in stocks and long bonds indicated where sellers of stock are putting their funds. 2/3 of the Nasdaq move was in the first 2 hours, and it remained flat from 12 to 3 pm, when the bond market closed. The bonds were absorbing a large portion of the seller's funds and when the bond market closed, the seller's numbers declined as they had nowhere to put their money but cash (which is still trash).

It seems that where money came from was from money market funds. But the decline in commercial paper and treasury bills which make up money funds was rather slight, and thus not a probable source for the bulk of the money, neither was gold, neither was it foreign buying that was a substantial source of funds that drove stocks up. So where did the money come from? Most likely from a combination of the following (in order of significance): investor's money market funds (early after the open and at the last hour), investment bank and speculative buying of futures (before the open and into the first hour, and during the investor selling at mid-day), arbitrage of the futures (open and at noon).

There is good indication that investor selling will continue today and that funds will flow into bonds and from bonds to real goods - gold etc.. I expect any new cash coming from the investment banks (i.e. the Fed) to move away from from the stock market as stock sellers do not seek fresh opportunities within the stock market, but seek new ones outside it.

Contrary to prior ramp up jobs, the current one is not going to pull momentum investment in. The "look back" background trend that is in the momentum investor's rearview mirror does not look good enough to reignite interest.



In the energy market there was the fall in active refining capacity which caused lesser draws on crude and lesser supply of heating oil. The refiners have been working at breakneck and delaying their maintenance operations. These refineries can not continue operation without maintenance indefinitely. Particularly not in the winter, where any bottleneck can cause the whole plant to stop as crude cools down and becomes a thick sticky goo.

The heating oil to crude oil ratio is now at 3.4 - much higher than the normal 3 - an increase of refiner margins on the order of 12% - or more than double the normal margin - this is an indicator of the market inducing refiners to stop maintenance operations and "get with it" making heating oil.

Hi justamere!

"While I agree with the thrust of your predictions post of yesterday, I felt it was a bit all
encompassing. When the front of an automobile, travelling in a straight line at 90 degrees to an
immovable obstacle such as a brick wall, first touches the obstacle, the is a high degree of certainty
that the back of the car will slow to a stop soon." -justamereBear msg#: 43052

Agreed. And a good point.

BUT physical systems, where all the elements are PHYSICALLY connected together (as in the car you used as an example) are much more dependably predictable than are non-physical, largely symbolic systems such as the current financial "system" and its vehicles of all stripes. Has to do with kinematics --- which in physical systems is inextricably connected to inertia, inertia apparently being an inseparable characteristic of physical mass.

While it's tempting and sometimes useful to use the concepts of "momentum" and "inertia" with regards to the more symbolic systems, the symbolic-system/physical-system analogies can often be greatly misleading. In a sense that's why a truely free market CONVERTIBLE gold standard, (gold production being hampered -- or controlled if you wish -- by the physical limitations of mining, etc.) if you desire stability in pricing and exchange rates, is vastly superior to the current all-symbolic megabyte "Ptolemaic" financial system with its violent fluctuations (hampered -- or controlled if you wish -- only by the will and desires of money manufacturers.)

Being physically hampered isn't necessarily good. And in a sense, gold mining isn't completely. The heap-leach process is relatively new, for example. But when rapid changes adversely effect everyone and are largely unpredictable not only in timing but in location (who's next after Turkey and Argentina?) and degree, hampering is, IMO a very good thing. I am, of course, referring to the financial system, specifically to creating buying power, an excess of which leads to so-called "inflation," -- and differential rates of which in different countries lead to gyrating exchange rates.

Ahem. Sorry. Preaching again. Back to the topic at hand. Sometimes it's more accurate (and thus useful) to modify the physical-symbolic analogy. A pilot friend of mine describes helicopters as thousands and thousands of rapidly whirling parts flying in close formation. Envision the car with all the parts loosely connected with long rubberbands -- some of which may break. And depending how far they're stretched, perhaps the back end of the car careens off the road at right angles and down a long mountain slope and doesnt' come to a stop for a relatively long time. Or maybe the back hits the wall first!

A few related -- though un-integrated by me -- thoughts that may spark some thinking.

The predictability of NATURAL physical systems -- weather is a good example -- is not as certain as we commonly believe -- and predictions of such systems break down the further they are from the "present" because of the "chaotic" characteristics of "complex systems."

The most predictable physical systems, at least as far as location goes, are the more physically massive and thus include the most inertia. Such things as the movement of the planets is an example, probably somehow related, probabalistically at least, to the number of particles connected in them and "the theory of large numbers."

Also, artificially bounded systems, like honest dice, are the most dependably predictible -- especially from the "probabilistic" viewpoint mentioned by Greenspan. This is because, unlike the case in the "real world," the universe of possible outcomes is sharply limited.

Trying to cut post length so I'm gonna stop here.

Regards,
Journeyman

I'm from Texasssssssssssssssssssss. and everything in texas is big, everything.

DAAAAAAAAAA Dubya Daaaaaaaaaaa Dubya.

300.00 gold tomorrow????????

Golds cooking :).... Ok off for some shut eye :)

Now they will start covering in a big way, could gap and move fast. merry xmas, christs birth, don't forget it!!!!!

Teens Prayer....'Now I Sit Me Down In School'
Poem Written By Arizona Teen

From Randy Fisher
12-5-00



ALL>>>
This was written by a teen in Bagdad, Arizona. It was sent to me in an e-mail.
...................................................

Now I sit me down in school Where praying is against the rule For this great nation under God Finds mention of Him very odd.
If Scripture now the class recites, It violates the Bill of Rights. And anytime my head I bow Becomes a Federal matter now.
Our hair can be purple, orange or green, That's no offense; it's a freedom scene. The law is specific, the law is precise. Prayers spoken aloud are a serious vice.
For praying in a public hall Might offend one with no faith at all. In silence alone we must meditate, God's name is prohibited by the state.
We're allowed to cuss and dress like freaks, And pierce our noses, tongues and cheeks. They've outlawed guns, but FIRST the Bible. To quote the Good Book now makes me liable.
We can elect a pregnant Senior Queen, And the 'unwed daddy,' our Senior King. It's "inappropriate" to teach right from wrong, We're taught that such "judgments" don't belong.
We can get our condoms and birth controls, Study witchcraft, vampires and totem poles. But the Ten Commandments are not allowed, No word of God must reach this crowd.
It's scary here, I must confess, When chaos reigns the school's a mess. So, Lord, this silent plea I make: Should I be shot; My soul please take!
Amen

Thanks. That was excellent. Put it out to my mailing list.

I just got done reading the Greenspan speech, and my honest take is that he is feeling the effects of being ahead of the curve.
I think our friend Greenspan is starting to feel that little funny feeling down there in the bottom of the stomach that tells you something is going wrong.
We have known for awhile he is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He knows ahead of most what is going to happen, and he is starting to feel the pressure.
Gyrations are not good in financial markets, and they make you look very incompetent.
Gyrations mean there is a loose wheel and it might even come off.
Gyrations are a very bad sign.
I just wish I could buy more gold than the few coins I can afford from time to time.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOi6giRatQm9uZHMg[excerpt from Bloomberg]
New York, Dec. 6 -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note staged its best two-day rally in more than two years as stocks declined, and as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by the end of March.

"Bonds and cash (will) be the favored investment going forward because damage has been done" to the stock investor's psyche, said Steven Bohlin, who sold notes maturing in seven years from the $200 million he manages at Thornburg Investment in Santa Fe, New Mexico, to lock in gains. Investors are turning to Treasuries as they reassess stock market volatility, he said.
------------

And yet, there is a troubling U.S. balance of trade shortfall that does little to instill future confidence in the dollar's likelihood to maintain it's current high purchasing power. And what is a bond but a fancy lay-away program for buying future dollars. Methinks buying the international reserve asset called gold at 21-year lows is more prudent than buying dollars for future delivery--via bonds--at their current peak.

TURKEY'S FUTURE:

Consider the following paragraphs excerpted from the article on
Turkey's crisis posted yesterday (link in header.) The two
paragraphs below, separated from each other by about half of the
article, tell an interesting story:

"The central bank governor said over the weekend he had
$18.8 billion to use, [to defend the Turkish lira] down
from $21.583 billion on November 24 and $24.433 billion
before the crisis set in." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in
key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec.
4, 2000

And from an earlier paragraph in the same story:

"In Ankara, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team
began talks on a loan, possibly $4-5 billion, to ease a
dramatic liquidity squeeze now threatening to demolish
Turkey's anti-inflation programme." -Hatice Aydogdu,
Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues,
Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And yet another relevant paragaraph from same Reuters story:

"If the two sides fail to agree a Supplementary Reserve
Facility (SRF), a short-term loan at higher interest
rates, or talks drag on, Turkey could be forced to
abandon a crawling peg currency and devalue." -Hatice
Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil
continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now compare the situation in Turkey as described by these Reuters
paragraphs with "dollar tyranny" described in the Salinas piece
from the Mexican site, link posted last week:

"As soon as exports of any one country seem to fade,
the speculative sharks begin to circle. The currency is
deemed "overvalued". A devaluation is at hand. The
Central Bank can cast away all its accumulated Dollars
in defense of its currency, but in vain. The
speculators are stronger than any Central Bank. The
currency must fall in value, and then will be weaker
because the Central Bank has no reserves left. -Hugo
Salinas Price, The spectres of Bretton Woods,
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/salinas9.htm

Now once again from the Reuters article:

"Average overnight interbank rates, a good measure of
the general climate in money markets, reached 782.46
percent, down from 863.99 on Friday. But there was no
clear indication the upward trend of the last two weeks
had been broken." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF
talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now again consider the following from the Salinas article from
the Mexican web site:

*The Central Bank will raise interest rates
drastically, to stem the Dollar hemorrhage and retain
or bring in Dollars. The devaluation will wreck
savings, and the high interest rates will devastate the
productive structure*. *The Central Bank will continue
to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely
afflicted countries are financing the U.S. Government,
at a cost to themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The
spectres of Bretton Woods, http://www.plata.com.mx/
plata/salinas9.htm

The date on the article on Turkey is Dec. 4, 200. This means that
between November 24 and Dec. 4 (at the latest), the Turkish CB
blew $2.783 billion ($21.583 billion minus $18.8 billon)
defending the Turkish currency --- in 10 days (or less)!
If the burn rate stays the same,

1. How much longer would the Turkish Central Bank's remaining
$18.8 billion last? (Answer: 66 more days)

2. How long would the IMF $4-5 billion loan hold the line?
(Answer: Less than 20 days.)

Why the IMF plan will work :

"I'm confident the peg will hold because the consequences of
allowing the peg to go, both in domestic and international terms,
are just too high," John Lomax of HSBC said." -Hatice Aydogdu,
Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec.
4, 2000

$1 - 618,400 Turkish lira. If you were in Turkey, would you want
to own gold?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I know, I know. It couldn't happen here.

...Away ...
from great prices missed,
by fractions
as "Algae", pissed
out the attractions
of sub(s)lime rates
as he debates
reactions!

Well, excuse me, as I was trying to defend the real purpose of the veiled greenspeak, lately, l have to come to the conclusion that I've been right. Though, in the sense that AG's warnings were only directed towards the banking establishment! Well, after all, what else could you expect - from the FED, the banker's last resort, and for ever forget IMF, World Bank and now recently BIS - as mere puppets to the prolonged reserve currency ploy of the fiat-buck - staving off the ever growing risks to the system!

Still, at times, I'd given him all the credit in fine-tuning the difference between real- and virtual growth, malinvestment and real productivity enhancement and foremost adequate, though measured supply of liquidity to
ensure further (real) growth, has by far outstripped any istorical measure.

Mr. AlGae, instead, reliquified the Oct. crash of 1987, some even say he was the catalyst for this near debacle - though then it was blamed to computers, or better fund managers afraid of having computers beat their performance - tied to "indexing"! At least these guy's have seen their limits ...though, will they ever accept it? - CNBC's Ron, Maria, Paul ... leads me to believe " in corpore sana in corporations insana", judging from today's debt/equity ratio (quick ratio in my time as a trainee) .. most of corporate (including private - dis-savings - 0.8% - probably of not disposable (in-) come) are under water and so are banks ... (better informed analysts have spelled it out) - and not only junk ... No, the cataclysmic collapse of
120 Trillion of derivative RISK - and no more counterparties!

And as it may
has been your last day
in the sun
M r. Greenspun!

Enjoy,
as Hoi Poloi
the joy
of best BOY!

As it's history
which will see
judging you,
fair and true!

So...
... Today, we'll spend our $'s ,
as there are no tomorrows -
- Is that what Greenspan meant?
... at the end ... He bent,
more than any gent ...

No, no limericks for a g ...

PS: Out of context: though remember - AMI go home -
-in context Al's go home ... and leave politics and
markets - ALONE!! - Thank you - cb2

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_turkey.htmlSee the link above regarding the lira situation as it was in April 2000. Since then, one gold ounce has risen in local price by 20 million lira to 186,152,992 Turkish lira today.

Worth a second look from your post.......
---
*The Central Bank will raise interest rates
drastically, to stem the Dollar hemorrhage and retain
or bring in Dollars. The devaluation will wreck
savings, and the high interest rates will devastate the
productive structure*. *The Central Bank will continue
to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely
afflicted countries are financing the U.S. Government,
at a cost to themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The
spectres of Bretton Woods
---
Knowing, then, that such a policy unduly subjugates the health of a nation's international reserves to currency management policies implemented by others, one begins to see the beauty of the new euro-style structure of reserves held as gold which is regularly marked to market. It removes a significant discretionary element and uncertainty that currently rests in the self-serving hands of the nation issuing such paper being used as reserves. Go for the gold...a trend that is natural and unstoppable now that a viable post-Bretton Woods structure has finally been unveiled.

Randy

The first Christmas present was GOLD. That was 2000 years ago. And it is still the best (material) one today. The other (non-material) one is LOVE. Give both for a perfect Christmas.

Can anyone rifle off (pun intended) a list of firearms and weapons manufacturers.

To check the charts.

TIA,

silvercollector

Better still, does anyone know of a site that can search by company category?

Thanks.

Dong Ah shares shine for shipwreck treasure
South Korea's bankrupt Dong Ah Construction says it has found a shipwreck, but cannot confirm reports it is a turn-of-the-century Russian vessel carrying gold worth 150 trillion won (about HK$970 billion).

Well, that's one way to keep your creditors quiet for a while

Here are some.
Browning
Remington
Rugar
Winchester
Smith and Wesson
Colt

NBC news, tonight, said people in the mid-west are paying 54% more to heat with natural gas than they did this time a year ago. While that represents a substantial increase for the individual consumer, let's not forget that businesses that have to pay such an increase will, no doubt, pass some of it on to the consumer of their products. Just saw a weather map of the jet stream and its projected to dip all the way down to Texas for a while. Brrrr.

What's with gold lately? Seems like Greenspan's "hint" at dropping interest rates was heard by more people than just those in the stock market. It will be interesting to see if the price of gold gets whacked back down to the 260s again or maybe those days are behind us...

Firearms companiesSTURM RUGER & CO INC. Trades as symbol RGR on NYSE.
The 60 month chart looks like they are in the Gold industry.

STURM RUGER & CO INC RGR NYSE
Last Sale: $ 8.375 Net Change: 0.0625
Today's High: $ 8.4375 Today's Low: $ 8.3125
Best Bid: N/A Best Ask: N/A
Volume: 35,500 Previous Close: $ 8.3125
Stock Type: Common Stock




$hifty

In the end it boils down to financials - BoA has problems with "bad" loans - ... and if BoA has prob's who hasn't?! - Freddy and Fanny are somewhat onerous, while CMB/JPM
are looking for new intellectual genius - as bank's are starved of these qualities (re:CNBC discussion) - ... Well, who want's to work for a pittance - as you can join the ruby rob'bers of front runners - .. apply now for future top job, in sales of paper in bales - ... and the malady - of salary -will be converted to bribery.
Apply at GS - they may have to replace some talent - as even merry weathers are a'changing to tempestous tiimes, or climes -corzin' the begin - of publicin'!

... so, we know AG used his last arrow, before he lost
the bow? ... and where we go from now? - let' s disavow
the rest of the constititution and elect to bestow - a court supreme - instead of popular voted "figure" head - sporting
the scheme - of getting re-legated to the "Tallahasse" cream, of Floridian dream -TEAM!

Bananas 'R MI(ami) cb-3

http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/Quarters/1106/links.htmlLinks to

-gun manufacturers
-general links
-ammo
-apparel

From Harry @ GE:
"Those dummies never heard of Newton - US stocks hit by falling Apple!' -
Tku - Harry - great "observation' - cb2

The SpudMaster tells it as it is at kitco:

SpudMaster (@Thomas re. ) ID#249209:
<<"Tell me, please, what % of the world's population prospered in times of gold currency?"

Rather ask: How many were content & at peace with themselves?

How many were debt free?
How many owned their own lives?
How many had intact families?
How many had scruples?
How many cared for their children?
How many cared for their nation?

Here in the corrupt, short-term prosperity of the last sixty years of Imperial America, we only have things ... we don't have happy. or peace.

We is debt-slaves.
We is divorced.
We is dope-heads.
We is on Prozac, Zoloft, Serzone, Salvarsan.
We is living on credit cards.
We is children of broken homes.
We is +20 million unborn babies, ground up and flushed down the sewer like offal, for convenice.
We is a President so venal, so corrupting, so foul that it defies everything America was founded upon.

THIS is your fiat "prosperity".

And when this fiat paper/magic-bank-number system finally sags to its festering sore-crusted knees and its rotting hide bursts open to gush the putrescent lies of the last 60 years, guess what?

Where is your "prosperity"?

You traded your long term future for a handful of short term "feel-goods".

And now, like the crack-addict, health ruined, family gone, wealth-squandered, self-respect zero ... what is left.

Payback is a b*itch.>>

http://www.goldensextant.com/Current MPEG Commentary

12/6/2000 - Guest Article: Evidence of Gold Manipulation on the COMEX

... and as I'm on watch in the middle of the night - you guys are too sophistcated to even comment?

Well, you may have seen it all before - maybe - though never after an important AG -- Speak, informing his banking cronies to freak out of markets and sneak to reality and tangible assets.

While we know, only few will succeed, the POG will be the creed - for all the bullion banks who need to fill - bad will - and kill the notion of divesting a major portion of their investor's position - to anilihalation.

.... even AlGae will be at a loss to paper over his
Master's Whisper ... who's got the gold? ...
Hopefully - me and you - cb2

PS - GWB - it's time for "HE"!

In the months ahead the Fed will be faced with an impossible balancing act. A slowing economy will force them to lower interest rates. Yet the combination of a weakening economy and lower relative interest rates will discourage foreign investment in the U.S. and drive the dollar down against other currencies. This will be great medicine for our balance of trade, true enough. And global American companies which have been suffering with the strong dollar will suddenly find themselves in the catbird seat.

Recent statements by Greenspan and Broaddus make it clear that the time is fast upon us to make this change in course. Already gone are the days when dollar strength can be used to offset the effects of a loose monetary policy. The Fed now has bigger fish to fry. No wonder the gold market is reawakening.

A lower dollar will raise the price of all imported goods in the U.S. And that's alota goods! U.S. inflation will be compounded far beyond the government's ability to conceal it anymore. Woe to all them Phillips Curvians who were in there snappin' up them 30-year guvvies near 5 1/2% today. Before the winter snows melt they are going to feel like a bunch of damn fools.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

G'day Zen,
The handle is a derivative of my email - Daughter said it sounds "poofy"(sic) - only "derivative" I possess.
The Aussie isn't matching Au in that the A$/Au is creeping slowly northward back into the "red-zone" from the pov of the Miners.
Nought on Platinum here mate, though I'm not really watching!
Watch your P's-n-Q's in China Zen.

Your charge is to act as the middleman between the government's interests and those of the people (yes, you are a "peace keeper" of sorts) to ensure the smoothest functioning economy in spite of the players involved. (We will not dwell on that aspect overmuch here, lest we lose the mark for which I am aiming.)

Banania sprung from the tropical sea, born upon the fertile shoulders of a now dormant superficial expression of the igneous intrigues from the depths below. Banania is blessed with a self-motivated body of inhabitants that know how to work the natural resources of the land in order to reap the fruits of their productivity beyond their own needs for consumption. Hence, Banania is able to run a favorable balance of trade with the wider world. Meaning, the island nation exports more value in goods and services than it imports. The net difference is accounted for with the receipt of pallets of foreign currency.

Because the locals have no need for this foreign currency, it is sent to you for exchange into currency of local issue at the prevailing exchange rate. Now the choice of action falls to you--not a character playing a sinister role in a black and white silent movie with girls tied to railroad tracks because they were unable to pay the rent--but the very same you that strives to do the best with what you have and what you know.

1) Do you remit this various international currency to the nation of origin in exchange for interest bearing bonds so that these accounts may grow larger faster over time? But before you move for that option, please recall that future policy within these foreign lands may result in changes to the future exchange rates that more than erase any foreseeable gains attributable to the interest earned on their bonds.

2) Or, do you pick the best looking of the lot and first offer all other currencies up for exchange for these few attractive currencies, and then collect only those specific bonds using an approach where you "put all eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket with all your might?" But still, while holding the currency derivatives of another as your national reserves (savings), you are subject to these foreign nations� self-serving management policy. (This is essentially the reserve management model endorsed by the U.S./IMF.

3) Or, do you attempt to engineer a TRUE balance of trade by remitting these excess various international currencies to the countries of origin in exchange for a good that can serve as a universal monetary asset (yes, gold) to be held as your national reserve asset (savings)? Obviously, when held over time, the "price-value" of such gold reserves in the local currency would be ever determined by the free market in like manner to everything else responding to open market supply and demand. (In this we get a glimpse of the euro-style reserve management model.)

Due to the constraints recalled by the first paragraph, these three are your only options. Now, what shall you do? When you picture other international central bankers as parents and grandparents, wearing shoes very much like your own, what decision in this somewhat simplified exercise do you believe they would favor?

For many years, option 3 was not an option. Other than having immediate freedom from the inertia of past decisions, your choice for Banania speaks volumes of insight for the future decisions of your counterparts. And what holds true on the national level holds true for the individual portfolio in which even the "local" currency must be viewed as one issued by a "foreign interest" under "foreign management".

http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/580The institutional people don't believe
us yet, but they're taking note of us
and saying that we might be helping to
move the market against the bad guys.
We're working on it!


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

Hello there,
and some of it changed today - at least the perception
that the US$ willl buy everything. From now on "Big Al" will not even be believed @Home - he squandered his credibilty as of yesterday (Krampus!) -as he has squandered his credibility anyway, to the sole advantage of
the financial mafia - formerly investment and commercial banks, the only entities above courts, regulatory, or even constitutional powers today - ...
... what a way to lead to the fray of seeking ballots ...
astray ... and some may even pay for "pregnant" chads,
dimpled, freckled, buckled or even gored, god beware, get a grip ... and please end this "Trauerspiel" ... cb2

Regards,
Journeyman

http://mtco.com/~ether/zonepolls.htmlClick the link and vote

As posted previously I consider myself "derivative free" apart from my handle (above) however: As the definitiion of a derivative is - an instrument who's value is derived from that of the underlying asset - can it not be said that Physical Gold, Silver and PGM's are derivatives of the underlying Paper asset?...and we're SHORT.
It get's better:-
As physical metal holders, can it also not be said that we are "short" the Markets, "short" Currencies "short" Bonds etc?
Hot Damn! I'm a freekin Hannibal Cannibal.

First thing this Morning on the Radio, Au is UP $4.10 - eeha!
Next item, Geoffery Robertson, host of "Hypothetical" has been briefed to tackle the Crown on arcane laws that prevent illegitimates and Catholics from acceding to the Throne of England......disqualifies me on both counts!
Then, the very next item, The guardian Newspaper is to throw it's weight behind a push to declare England a Republic!
Now I ask you - can you see my point?
Yup, thats it, the future is crystal clear - HRH Queen Elizabeth, under duress, re-locates down-under where she was unequivically voted (chad free) Queen of OZ. Sets up residence in Casa del Topaz. and the rest will be History.

NG now sits at $9.12 Mbtu. I had thought that $8.00 Mbtu by years end was a likely target, but now it looks as if it could go much higher as we go into the first quarter. The clock gets reset on carbon credits (pollution credits) as we go into the new year, however, demand continues to rise and virtually all new power generation is from NG-fired power. GE has a backlog for 3 years on gas-fired turbines, and that is increasing as the need for more power is apparent. There was a 300%+ increase in volume on Durban shares today on little news other than the nice pop in gold prices. There has been a moderate increase in other gold and silver mining shares over this last week. One has to wonder if the institutional investors know something and that this is a precursor of a higher gold price or a year-end readjustment of investment portfolios. Hopefully both. Also there appears to be some talk in the investment community about "bogus" government inflation data � will wonders never cease. Apparently some influential people are beginning to question the validity of the BLS data and the statistical methodology in the calculation of CPI and PPI. Hope that this gains steam as most of us here and elsewhere know that the use of "hedonic pricing", "seasonality", and "core-rate" filters are fundamentally flawed as measures of inflation.

Tedw: I have both Stillwater (SWC) and North American Palladium (PAL) shares. SWC is still plagued with inept management, but with the new floor price hedges and minimal hedging in place, they should gain regardless. PAL just recently became listed on the Amex, so I acquired a few hundred shares. I was not too optimistic about PAL as I understood that they had very little left in reserves. Well, times change and increasing Pd and Pt prices have helped with a 3.8 million ounce reserve base, and 1.1 million ounce resource. Not bad, but still a bit risky. I also continue buying Pt maples and Koalas when I can. On a side note, the new design on the US Pt eagle looks nice � it is supposed to have a reverse with an eagle soaring over a desert scene with a suaro cactus in the foreground. I'm sure that MK and the castle guard can get the physical if you wish. Take care � Cheers!

Zenidea: G'day mate, I heard about an Aussie Pt operation, but I cannot remember who is involved. If I remember or come across the info. I'll pass it along. BTW, with all the birds you got, I should pay a visit with my Browning 10 Ga. � (just kidding).
View Yesterday's Discussion.

http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtmlSouthern Californian spot NG is at $37.84 Mbtu - an all time high! Looks like S. Cal. businesses will definitely feel the pinch, and consider shutdowns or pass the price along to customers. Other prices look interesting as well. Check out the link.

S. California NG spot at $37.84 Mbtu!What do they pay for GOLD!
LOL

$hifty

PS: How did your duck hunt go?

http://www.crbindex.com/Dollar Index (NYBOT) Dec00 Future 112.86 -0.40 113.26

Time to saw wood.

zzzzzzzzz

$hifty

1 Snow goose, and 3 mallards. A nice goose with cherry sauce for Xmass dinner. As far as the people in the "Peoples Republik of Kalifornia" are concerned, gold bullion and NG stock would probably be a good idea. They have to pay a lot for energy because they were so stupid as to not prepare in a perfect example of Aesop's "the Ant and the Grasshopper" fable. Now they must pay the price. Environmentalism is nice when it is fashionable, but it sure is expensive. Now there is the "wailing and gnashing of teeth" over high energy costs. They did not want the big bad nuclear power, they did not want NG, oil, or coal power plants in their backyard, they want to "save the fish" from hydro-electric power, windmills "slice and dice" birds, solar collectors take up open space and "offend the eyes", etc. So now, all I can say is "reap what you sow." I mentioned to Topaz that I nabbed some PAL shares when they became available - maybe the Kaliforians will push hard for fuel-cell tech., then again that's big bad mining. BTW, I also nabbed some more HGMCY a couple of weeks ago at $3.75, and today - unbelievable. Now if only gold can push it past $320 by years end. Hey - I can can dream can't I?

Source: Steven King's PetroDispatchWhy Demand Doesn't Stop

With prices for electricity in the U.S. West skyrocketing on Tuesday, sparking renewed talk that the region's power markets are broken and concern that some marketers may be on the brink of bankruptcy, the consumer was asked to cut back.The California Independent System Operator (California ISO) declared a Stage One Emergency at 5:45 a.m. More than 11,000 megawatts of generation remain off line, the majority categorized as forced outages. Included in that figure is a substantial amount of power plants production shut down because of expired air emission credits. Additionally, a sudden drop in imported power from the Northwest exacerbates the thin supply picture. The request was voluntary. However, a Stage Two was declared when reserves dropped below five percent. At this level, large commercial customers that have signed up to voluntarily curtail power during high demand days will be asked to do so. So what happened? The city of San Diego was asked not to run their Christmas lights until after 7:00 p.m. but the local news showed the traditional streets ablaze with lights starting at dusk. When the homeowners were asked about the electricity emergency, they said, "but the children". The Governor even light the state tree (admittedly only for five minutes). All in all, no one took it as more than a temporary problem. The California ISO has estimated the holiday lights in the state use around 1,000 MW of electricity. That's my contention. People will use electricity, drive to work and heat their homes almost regardless of cost and economic conditions. Prices for electricity for the rest of December at the key Northwest hub of Mid-Columbia soared as high as $1,200.00 per megawatt hour (MWh) on Tuesday, up from $500.00-$525.00 per MWh on Monday and an already steep $290.00-$305.00 on Friday. In contrast, electricity for delivery during the balance of December at some hubs in the eastern U.S. has been trading around $60.00-$70.00 per MWh, around one-twentieth of prices at Mid-Columbia but still considered high for those areas. The rise in prices came amid concern whether it will be possible to generate enough power in the U.S. West to meet demand, with loads expected to rise if forecasts of extreme cold arrives either late this week or early next week. The latest crisis has been exacerbated by a shortage of both hydropower and natural gas. Natural gas at the Southern California border traded as high as $27 per million British thermal units Tuesday, up $4.00 from Monday and more than 10 times the $2.30 price seen a year ago.

Black Blade: And the Grasshoppers danced and sang all summer���.., NG spot in S. California now sits at $37.84 Mbtu.

COMMODITY CORNER

NYMEX January Natural Gas prices, +76� to $7.43/Mcf, rallied on the news that below-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest and Northeast during the next few weeks. Given tight supplies of gas this winter, traders started bidding up prices. Home heating oil, which in some cases is an alternative for gas, followed suit.

NYMEX sweet, light crude fell 80� to $31.22/bbl for January delivery, while the February contract stood at $30.47, down 70�. North Sea Brent crude oil futures prices dropped in largely technically related selling below support at $31/bbl, futures tested support at $30 and broke it on aggressive selling.

Black Blade: Oil could rebound much higher. It has recovered over $30.00/bbl. Inflation cometh!

Reverse 8 years of dictatorial edicts?

CIA briefs Bush; GOP urges voiding Clinton orders
By Dave Boyer and Sean Scully
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

George W. Bush received his first daily national security briefing from the Clinton administration yesterday while Senate Republicans urged his running mate, Richard B. Cheney, to reverse Clinton-era executive orders. "It's going to be important to show . . . the American people that this administration will be ready to seize the moment," Mr. Bush told reporters during another busy day of transition planning in Austin. CIA official met with Mr. Bush at the governor's mansion in Texas and gave him the same intelligence briefing that Vice President Al Gore receives daily. The Bush team had sought the reports for at least two weeks, arguing that Mr. Bush needs the information to conduct a responsible transition.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Mr. Cheney gave congressional Republicans their first taste in eight years of what it will be like to work with a Republican administration. He greeted House Republicans in the morning and ate lunch with Republican senators, who encouraged Mr. Cheney in a free-wheeling discussion to have Mr. Bush overturn a long list of executive orders signed by President Clinton. Senators declined to be specific about which executive orders they want overturned, but one Republican said they advised Mr. Cheney to be "aggressive" about overturning Clinton administration policies. Another Senate Republican said they broached the overall topic but did not get into specific policy areas with Mr. Cheney.

Republicans have long chafed at what they view as Mr. Clinton's excessive use of this executive power to circumvent Congress on a variety of issues, from protecting homosexuals from discrimination to declaring new national monument areas. "The transition is up and running and operational now, and we look forward to working with members of Congress of both parties," Mr. Cheney said after the closed House session. He pledged "a robust effort to get on with the business of dealing with the nation's problems."

Black Blade: It's a Start! Overturning Bubba's dictates that stole the western lands from the people who live and make their living off of the land would be a good beginning. I never could understand why Bubba made the Escalante Staircase area a National Monument. The area is a wasteland - no animals will even live there. There are vast low sulfur coal reserves though. The only other huge resource of equivalent coal is in Indonesia under the control of the Lippo Bank group (the same that payed bribes ��.er contributed to Bubba's political campaign). Knock out the competition for a few $ million?

Just from the top of anyones precious valuable head ; I respectfully seek that perhaps someone may kindly furnish me with the spot prices of Iridium & Moly per Oz to canvass please. The ol Oxy-hydrogen blowpipe may well need a servicing/come shutdown?. Lazy blighter aint I , hehe.
Seriously though such would be appreciated.
Black Blade , bring your gun , bring your home brew !, and bring your rod!. They asked me not to be humble cause I aint that good !. Wolvlaka you reckon everything is bigger in Texas. Perhaps its about time this USAGOLD family pulled
our fingers out and got togeather for a right old shin dig !
I'll pull the one and only suit I own out of the cobwebs, throw off my singlet and thongs ,have a shave even and promise not to belch, fart or snore. (smile).
Wheres the venue to be then.

A BIG A.

A Big fat red A for attorney !!!!!!!!!!!
We should demand every scumbag attorney in the country wear the badge.

They have destroyed the constitution and our money!.

My vote would be to give everyone of them a Columbian bowtie!!!

trend line 282 in april, take it out and we go someplace.

march beans have trend line 520 take it out and just under limit up another t.l.
Go farmboy!! city slickers suck.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmCurrencies continue to strengthen on USD, except the Japanese peso (oops, even the peso is doing better than the yen). NG jumped a bit - now at $9.30 Mbtu. Could take out $10.00 today. California NG spot is looking to jump higher as some NW utes are talking bankruptcy due to low water levels affecting hydro-power, expired carbon credits, and high NG costs. NW suppliers may cut off California in favor of local clients. Meanwhile, NY Crude is rebounding over $30.00/bbl as reality sets in. More pieces of the puzzle fall into place for a positive picture for Gold, silver, and PGMs.

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews/3689043.htmLondon Interbank gold lending rates actually DROPPED today!

Can this be anything OTHER than an attempt to quash a gold rally?

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmSomething is in the works here people! Futures suddenly dived and it looks to be a sharply lower open on Wall Street. Watch out for falling brokers! I hear that the "Swan Dive" is in this month. PM's are not budging yet, but currencies are strengthening more against the USD this morning. Petroleum is moving higher, though NG has pulled back slightly, but heating oil has jumped over 2 cents a gallon. Where Al Fulchino during this petroleum crisis? Anyway, keep your eyes and ears open as today looks to be "interesting." A fitting way to observe "Pearl Harbor Day."

- Black Blade

NG back up - $9.35 Mbtu and rising! Euro just shy of 0.90! Dollar index broke below 113! Futures recovering slightly but still solidly down - PPT has a lot of work to do before the NY open. Gold is only up +$0.30, but Pd is much higher +$17.00 at $868.00 - break to $900.00?

Excerpt from Tom Calandra's CBS Marketwatch:

The fondness for golden oldies, in my opinion, also will contribute to a rapid return to a precious metal that has not seen the light of day for more than a decade. Gold prices this week sit at $276 or so, a technical resistance level.

Larry Edelson, editor of Safe Money Report, tells me the next resistance for the metal's price is $282 or so an ounce. "Don't be surprised if it pulls back a bit, then runs," he says. A higher gold price would allow gold mining stocks such as Placer Dome Gold (PDG) build on their recent gains.

That would make the folks at LeMetropoleCafe.com, a site dedicated to gold prices and contrarian thinking, very, very happy. Here's to golden oldies.

Motorola warns on Q4

CIEN gives out a very questionable "we made the number" except for "excluding a provision for doubtful accounts and payroll tax on stock options."

And Goldman Sachs downgrade Mr Softy.

BUY THE DIP!

http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=051200swings.pdfI read this guys work every morning. Some of it only ORO would understand.

Enjoy

Source: BridgeNewsRussia Norilsk chief says 2001 PGM quota signing may be delayed

Moscow--Dec. 7--The largest Russian producer of platinum group metals Norilsk Nickel's Chairman Yury Kotlyar said on Thursday that he feared the 2001 import quotas would not be signed by the end of the year, which will
lead to a pause in supply of the metals on the world market. Norilsk, however, holds a 10-year quota for palladium and its exports will be uninterrupted.

Black Blade: No Kidding! BTW, can't interrupt something that hasn't happened.

Hmmmm. Mortgage backs and Agencies?


Thursday December 7, 8:54 am Eastern Time
Fed adds $3.0 bln in reserves via 28-day repos
(UPDATE: Adds volume)

NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $3.0 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system via 28-day fixed system repurchase agreements.


The following collateral was accepted:
- $0.66 billion in Treasuries, stop out 6.42 percent;
- $0.90 billion in agencies, stop out 6.52 percent;

- $1.44 billion in mortgage-backed securities, stop-out 6.52 percent.

Federal funds were trading on the Fed's 6-1/2 target for the rate.

Watch this today!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.usagold.com
Natural Gas up. Dollar down.


There is no inflation. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. Are you hypnotized yet?

dropping it 20-50 cents then right back up, it's gonna blow.

soybeans lock it limit up today.

Palladium up $44.00 at $895.00 and poised to move higher. Currencies and petroleum getting beaten down, and Gold following - Bummer!

Believe it or not we are currently checking out a 10 acre parcel in a place like Banania.

If my wife were the head of the Central Bank of Banania the first thing she would have done with the surplus export monies is build a huge bunker like the one already in the Rocky Mountains, used by NORAD.
Than as the export revenues grew as Sir Randy explained in # 43123'she would buy Gold for delivery, and store it in the mountain bunker.
The more Gold that was stored the more valuable Bananias currency would become, therefore "lowering" the price on all imported items.She would incourage Goldsmithing among the natives.
Peering into the future, other countries suffering from uncontrolled currency inflation would try to salvage as much wealth as possible by putting their currencies into Bananias Central Bank, therefore creating more wealth for Banania, as this currency would also be swapped for physical Gold.In time this would also make the POG rise worlwide as it began to eat up above ground supplies of Gold.
After about 5 years of this policy the currency of Banania would be so strong local prices of these items would look something like this:
Unleaded gas; $.20 a gallon.
A new Corvette; $1000.00.
An airplane ticket around the world; $45.00.
A new PC with all attachments $25.00.

And the best part there would be no taxes as all Government revenue could be collected from import tarriffs which the natives wouldn't feel at all since the currency was so strong.

Here is another rhetorical question;
If the Central Banks of the world combined have about 30,000 tonnes of Gold stored, and they decided they want to issue a special Gold backed currency to each other, how much would a dollar of this currency be worth in U.S. dollars?

Thanks for allowing the imagination to run free.....beesting.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/chartspotlitefiles/chartspotmenu.htmlUDX (US$-index) 1985 -1995 decline + saucer bottom 1995 -2000. Will the started decline hold in the 100-105 zone ?
A POO of 40$/50$ would be supportive.
How much can POG move without dollar decline/rise influence ?

Remember those Ameritrade commercials a year or two ago with the loveable doofus Stuart goading his boss to buy 1,000 shares of Kmart instead of 100? Well, at the current $5 a share he would have vaporized about $10,800 of Mr. B.'s net worth. Don't look for that commercial to be revived soon. Maybe they could overlay a voice like in kung fu theatre and instead of "Kmart" substitute "physical gold". Oops, sorry, Ameritrade don't do gold. Get gold - it's easier than falling in love.

A few years ago I did some numbers. I took some money supply numbers, and note they did not include such things as artificial dollars such as the euro dollar market (which nobody has a handle on anyway), nor did they include seigniorage. (the amount written of as bills accidently destroyed, and bills deemed to be "out of circulation" because they are out of the country- and that is huge) I just took official figures. I took Fort Knox published reserves, without considering leases etc. Gold was higher then too. Then I just divided. It came out that the official USD had $1.92 in gold backing.

Inverting that, I found that if gold were to rise to the point that every dollar was 100% backed by gold, the price of gold would have to be approximately $16,000. per oz. Of course the government would never let that happen, and would confiscate gold long before that, but I took it to mean that an ounce of gold outside the system would have a purchasing power of $16,000.

I have since modified that view, to expecting that gold will run to well in excess of $16,000 in purchasing power, (overshoot, as normal) for a time and then drop back to the traditional price of an oz. The price of a good, tailored mans suit. As long as records have been kept, gold hovered around that range, but I doubt that you can buy a good tailored suit for 275.00 US This calculation has some pretty interesting implications for the USD, and fiat in general.

Given the amount of money that has been printed over the last few years, and the fact that the reserves are unchanged to slightly (very slightly, in the order of a FEW thousand oz.) lower, the gold backing today has to be somewhat less.

Regards
j'Bear

PS. By the way, what does a good tailored mans suit run at in New York these days?

Yahh! LOL :-)

Find another island with similar culture and even some PM's resources and Buy it from the owners. Best way to retain value of fiat is to move it quickly! Repeat until you own the world.

I am reposting one of my messages from about a week ago.
as I saw someone questioning when Gore will concede.

I again, reiterate. There is a plan behind all this. Now I know I wrote this with a slight tongue in cheek, but I did add that there could be in it an element of truth. I believe now that I was more on the ball than even I thought.

I feel Gore will concede either latish on Friday,or over the weekend. It is all a question of timing to have the greates impact for what it is hoped will be achieved. That is enough feel good factor to get those tills ringing, and those Christmas goods moving,with enough 'exhuberence. to carry over the holidays. The smack in the face will come around end of January, beginning of Feb.

I think Nasdaq will break above 3000 in this pre Christmas surge - mostly caused by short covering.

Just think of how much those lawyers cleaned up from the public purse.

My earlier, last week, posting:-


How shall I know if I do choose the right? (Merchant of Venice)

Let the laws of your own land
Good or ill, between ye stand
Hand to hand, and foot to foot
Arbiter of the dispute
Shelley


If you are wondering why this electoral dispute is dragging on, and when it is likely to be settled, lets take a look at some possible beneficiaries - or who stands to gain.

The shops are stacked with Christmas goods. People spend if they have 'the feel good factor' (whatever that is).They are going to need a surge upward in the markets to restore some of that 'feel good stuff' We can assume any surge will be very short lived, so if they have it too soon it would fizzle out like a damp squib before the cash registers start ringing.

Those hard worked lawyers need some spending money, there's Christmas and for most of them Hanukkah so the longer they string it out, the bigger yacht they can buy.

The news media, and chat shows need to feed their ratings by keeping you tuned to 'tonight's re-e-eely big show', before they (the people) demand a different form of entertainment for the festive season.

Tot 'em all up and what do you get......err let's see, we have about 24 shopping days left.....................

I would guess about the 8th or 15th of December you will know who is the president. If you don't hear by the 15th it will be left until after the holidays. But my betting is before.

This is, as you will have guessed, not to be taken too seriously. Though there could be in it an element of truth.

maybe tomorrow, still good support in gold and beans

- Ron Insanna reports that a treasury official (I missed his name) warns
that ~"We may suffer a more serious economic event than expected." Another
regular comments that it's unusual for a Treasury official to report on
something like this before it actually happens. Insanna concurrs. -CNBC,
Dec. 7, 2000, ~3:10PM

Regards, J.

Topock natgas in $35-$53 range on cold weather, power demand
New York--Dec. 7--Natural gas prices for next day delivery at the Topock
(Southern California border) point are skyrocketing as cold weather heading for
the West is creating extraordinary demand in a market already hampered by
tightness in the power sector. Topock natgas is trading in a range of $35 to
$53, up $4 to $12 from Wednesday's range, with the average price at about $45.
( Story .18448 )

AS TG SAID PHYSICAL TRADES AT ONE PRICE AND CONTRACT AT A DISCOUNT.........A REAL LIFE EXAMPLE ABOVE.

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlMarie wants me to ensure that you consider these beautiful gold gift ideas for your loved ones this year. Visit the link to learn more about the gold coin pendants, earrings, and chains (cuff links, moneyclips, and tie bars, too) that she has to offer.

Then, give Marie a call toll free at the Centennial office (800)869-5115 to discuss details and to place your order. You'll be glad you did because she'll take good care of you... an easier and more pleasant shopping assistant I simply cannot imagine.

Be sure to place your order by December 15th to ensure timely holiday delivery.

CNBC goes into full cheer-leader mode, saying, for example, how great it was there was such large volume traded in Motorola despite warnings and the price only dropped $.35, etc.

In the mean time, back in the semi-real world:

Trade in Intel halted: It is warning that revenues in forth quarter will be flat, down from estimates of 4% to 8% previously estimated. -CNBC Dec.7, 2000 ~4:19PM

Wachovia(sp), Bank America, etc. and other banks warn and are reporting non-performing and shakey loans. -CNBC

CDW warns.

Regards, J.

http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.htmlThis fine commentary was provided via e-mail from Paul van Eeden for sharing with our readers here at the Forum. Paul van Eeden, you may recall, is the author of our latest addition to The Gilded Opinion, found at the link above under the title, "Understanding Gold". Thanks again are extended to Paul for that commentary, and for this latest which is offered below. And with that said, I now turn things over to Paul...
--------------
"The dollar, the market and the inevitable -- December 5, 2000"

Another sign that US investors are still in a trance came as the Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, indicated that he is now more concerned with a softening economy than an overheating economy. This of course indicates that the Fed could soften is stance towards interest rates and it opens the way for interest rate cuts in the future. At least it now appears as if the Fed is highly unlikely to raise interest rates on December 19 and will probably leave them unchanged for the time being.

But the real irony is that the stock market reacted with euphoria to the news, with the NASDAQ up 274 points (more than 10%) and the Dow up 338 points (over 3%) on Tuesday. How is this possible? What are these people thinking? The US stock market, and by implication the investors who buy these shares, is discounting rapidly growing earnings on the back of alleged "productivity gains". The bulls argued that these productivity gains could keep the economy growing without the threat of inflation and hence we were in a "New Era".

This "New Era", like the emperor's clothes, has already been debunked - there is no need to delve into all the arguments here. What is much more interesting is to briefly recap where we came from and where we are, and to see if that sheds any light on where we may be going.

The real driving force behind the US economy was not the invention of the internet, or Corporate America's investment in computers and other technologies, it was just a mundane increase in the money supply, brought about by several converging factors outside the control of the US government. Since about 1992, the world has experienced one economic crisis after another, starting with South America and winding its way through Central America, South East Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe and most recently, Western Europe. These crises went hand in hand with currency devaluations and that, coupled with relatively high real interest rates in the United States and a relatively strong economy, caused an enormous influx of capital into the US, hence an increase in money supply.

This influx of capital reduced US interest rates by boosting bond prices and stimulated consumer spending by means of the wealth effect. It did not take long for a stock market bubble of historical proportions to develop. All that Alan Greenspan had to do was sit back and relax. He no more engineered this economic miracle than what he can prevent its demise. It was foreign capital that created this fiasco and it is the repatriation of the same foreign capital that will expose the US stock market mania for the folly that it really is.

A crucial point in all of this, and I haven't yet heard anyone mention it, is the convergence of real interest rates in Europe and the US. During the early 1990's when the currency crises swept across the world, the US economy was growing faster than Europe and real interest rates in the US were higher than in Europe. This is ultimately what drew the capital into the US. But now the US economy is slowing down and approaching that of Europe. Simultaneously, inflation is creeping up and yields are coming down, which means that real interest rates are dropping and are also converging with European real interest rates. If the Fed changes its stance towards lower interest rates, this would further speed up the convergence and the benefit to foreign investors will dissipate.

The bottom line is that while the dollar was going up against most other currencies foreign investors got a double whammy. They could make good returns on the stock and bond markets and capture a profit from the increasing dollar, in many cases yielding well over 20% per year or more in terms of their local currencies. But for now it looks as if the party's over.

For US investors the situation is just as gloomy. With the US economy slowing down, the whole house of cards falls down. A slowing economy is unlikely to deliver the optimistic earnings forecasts that Wall Street keeps touting and a declining stock market will put the wealth effect in reverse, therefore curtailing the consumer spending that has fueled much of this hysteria.

The US stock market is already looking terrible if you are in technology stocks and downright scary for the rest of the market, which appears analogous to Wiley Coyote who has just run over a cliff but has not looked down yet. Watch out below!

If the Fed raises rates, the market could collapse and consumer spending will grind to a halt possibly causing a recession. If the Fed lowers interest rates, the dollar will become unattractive to foreigners and if they repatriate their capital it could cause a collapse in the dollar, which will in turn increase US inflation due to the trade deficit and cause all sorts of pandemonium. In fact, a decline in the dollar due to foreign repatriation of funds could put upward pressure on US interest rates while the Fed might be trying to lower interest rates.

In short, I don't see a happy ending to this dilemma. Not that any investment bubble in history has ever had a happy ending. I continue to accumulate gold stocks and biding my time. Patience is a most valuable trait when it comes to investing and speculating. Of all the asset classes I can think of, none would fare better, with less risk, than gold and gold related equities.

Paul van Eeden

It swings up and swings down, but the big commercial players seem to want it to swing down most of the time.

Somehow, Mr. Greenspan MUST kill the enormous wealth effect, that is allowing SUV drivers to consume gasoline without restraint; that allows homes to be heated at high temperatures with precious natural gas, without restraint, etc., etc.

It is stagflation, in which sectoral commodity inflation is speeding up like a race horse at the Kentucky Derby. He knows that, with foreign capital withdrawing, and with a stagflation mounting, in reality, an interest rate HIKE makes more sense now than an interest rate drop, in order to maintain a strong US dollar and kill any sectoral super-inflation before it spills over into general industrial goods..

Of course, the big commercials see the writing on the wall
and they are using all kinds of tricks to ramp up stock prices in order to finish the distribution before the actual panic dump. They will constantly try and fool the public into believing a bottom is achieved, even as each one fails again and again. Of course, that is the imperative ingredient to a panic capitulation: so much constant disappointment that, finally, investors simply want out at any price.

The election troubles were a left field event, and who knows what's around the corner?

One thing is for sure: any panic capitulation can only occur when most investors do NOT expect trouble. Would any normal red blooded American expect trouble just BEFORE Christmas while a president is yet to be determined?

Not a chance...and that is cause for concern.


Thanks

F*

Your posts are much appreciated and always valuable. Thanks for your insights and information.

There was a time (30/40 years ago)when I was a fanatic of Ayn Rand's "Objectivism". Happily, I outgrew that stage. However, she did express some worthwhile thoughts, which remain valid. I remember her articles on "The Deindustrialization of America".

Since the system characterized by private property, free markets, solid money and limited government, which relies on individual rights and responsibilities as its "spark plug" - otherwise known as "Cap"talism" could not be dismantled on the basis of having "failed" and producing results inferior to Statism, it became necessary to discredit it through other means, not through a frontal assault on its alleged inferiority, when its superiority was palpable and evident to all.

So, environmentalism was invented. A back-door approach to dismantling "Capitalism". Through the creation of myriad interest groups, each with a different unrealistic sentimentality, all clamouring for restrictions on productive activity, the industrial base of the U.S. has been hobbled and pretty well obliterated.

"Don't let it go!" cried Ayn Rand. Well, far too many Americans have let it go.

The chickens are coming home to roost, indeed.

Forgeting the need for mighty industrial plants, power generation and transmission, pipelines, drilling activity, ships and trains, dams and canals - disregarding the fundamental need for all the physical might of physical productivity, the U.S. has swallowed the myth that wealth can be imported from nasty polluting countries of the rest of the world, while her population can live a life of ease by simply pecking away at computer keyboards.

It seems to me, that a coddled, drug-infested culture based on "if it feels good, do it" is going to react in a violent manner to the dislocations brewing in the U.S. economy.

In the coming crisis, there will be no self-restraint. That belongs to another age.

There will be Fear, when the paycheck is no longer there; when the job disappears; when savings have gone up in smoke in the bubble of recent years; when the homes in America are mortgaged and no income is available to service the mortgages; when there is no money to pay for gas to move the car and seek work. How is a population dispersed in suburbs supposed to survive without the indispensable means of transportation, which becomes prohibitively expensive?

With the Fear, will come Anger and Violence. The U.S. may, it seems to me, find itself on the verge of complete anarchy; the only viable way to control the rage of the population will be through a Dictatorship which will, unfortunately, not turn to the tried methods of raising standards of living, which require patience, forbearance, tolerance, respect for others, savings, long term objectives; all these are indispensable for obtaining, in this world, a decent material level of human life.
No, there will be a general pillage of what is left, by the Dictatorship. Do not expect Reason to prevail.

Life will go on - but not as before. An age which will be the wonder of all succeeding generations, is passing away.

My pessimism is deplorable. But, that's the way I see things. Still, in the depths of its despair I see the human race turning to spiritual values once again, that reservoir from which all great things arise.

Sierra Madre

"Stock Market is Manic Depressive" -Farfel msg#: 43167

Second opinion: I concurr, doctor -- and love the details of your diagnosis!

Regards, J.

Let us have a look beyond our U.S. boarders. Is the world "going for the gold"? Read this from Bridge News...

Taiwan's Nov gold imports at 21.4 tonnes vs 5.1 tonnes in Nov 1999
Taipei--Dec. 7--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 21.446 tonnes in November, compared with 5.136 tonnes in November 1999, a statement released by the Ministry of Finance Thursday indicated.
-----
And nearby in Japan, how long until they find a smooth, politically palatable transition out of an overweighted legacy position with so much paper in its forex/gold mix?

Japan forex, gold reserves record high $354.558 bln in Nov
Tokyo--Dec. 7--Japan's foreign currency and gold reserves in November totaled a record high U.S. $354.558 billion, up $5.5 billion from a month earlier, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said Thursday. The previous record high was $349.055 billion, marked in October.
-----

As an individual you do not have the ability to issue and manage your own fiat currency, and therefore, all currency-- including that issued by your nation of residence--can be perceived as your own personal holdings of forex reserves. Follow your own counsel and adjust these holdings to include a proper proportion of gold. The act is that easy, and while we are yet on a little-known weedy path through Sherwood Forest, it is soon to grow into a widely recognized and traveled freeway paving over the "old business" of the LBMA.

My words to you. Michael and the gang at Centennial would be pleased to help you facilitate the movement of gold out of weak hands and into yours.

I have read Mr Van Eeden's article twice to see if the missing physical Gold can be accounted for.(2,764 tonnes)
A snip from his article:

[Snip]
<>[Unsnip]

The only explanations I get from Mr. Van Eeden's article are these two:

Point 1. from Mr. Van Eeden: "Gold mine hedging makes up the difference."
Comment:
I can't buy that one because a hedge is a contract or derivitive""PAPER"" representing physical Gold. When the Gold is delivered(usually by a mine) from a hedged position it becomes physical Gold added into the annual physical Gold consumption figures.Gold mines publish all Gold mined as it is mined, in annual reports!
I don't believe unmined Gold could be added into consumption figures, until it's mined.

Point 2. from Mr. Van Eeden: He seems to be saying Physical Gold at LBMA and COMEX is sold over and over or many times in the course of a year. Maybe this is true, and if it is we can almost discount the figures released by LBMA and COMEX as most of this physical Gold is involved in a continuous merry-go-round of ownership with not too much of it ever leaving the LBMA or COMEX vaults!!!

So lets once again examine where Gold is consumed.
According to all reports 80% to 85% is used worldwide for jewellery. I would guess jewelers buy and order most Gold from refineries to insure carat content.

Now the real question is:
Do refineries purchase direct from the Gold mines or do they take delivery of .995 Gold from COMEX and LBMA, and then sell to jewelers? Remember COMEX Gold is only stored in New York and jewellery is sold all over the world.

Can anybody out there explain in very simple english where 2,764 tonnes of Physical Gold sold over the last 10 years came from and how much more is left???
P.S. Central Bank sales were already added into the 10 year figures.
Thank You....beesting.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001207/aponline211741_000.htmMAXED OUT: CALIFORNIA DECLARES UNPRECEDENTED STAGE 3 POWER EMERGENCY

$hifty

Official gold numbers will be misleading since they only reflect the amounts captured into the statistics from the "official" economy - i.e. published numbers from gold miners, from customs, from what central banks and their banker constituency are willing to admit to. The numbers will never reveal the whole of the situation.

I lived in a country in which 40% of the economy was "underground" black market, including much of the construction industry and most of the daily foreign exchange operations. Newspapers even published "black market" exchange rates, and government had to target both official and street prices of foreign currency in order to have the desired exchange effects. Nearly everyone had some kind of business "unofficially". The US, with one of the more "on the table" economies still has a 10%-15% underground economy, depending on who's estimates one uses.

Considering the preference of participants in the underground economy for anonymity and cash, it stands to reason that gold figures more prominently in the large transactions than it does within the "official" economy. To get a handle on the gold market deficit, it should be noted that some "production" comes from vaults (since "production" is the best way to "launder" black market gold), more production is carried out on an "unofficial" basis, and much more consumption occurs than statements to customs officers will ever reveal. Furthermore, the piddling numbers given by WGC on "investment demand" (a few hundred tonnes) can hardly be regarded as more than a scratch on the surface.

If the global "black market" constitutes 25% of the global economy, then the gold "black market" is at the very least 30% larger than the official one. Probably 40-50% larger, because of the greater weight of gold transactions and savings in the "black market". However, production is more probably under weighted in the unofficial gold world relative to consumption and investment, which are over weighted. Thus the actual deficit in the gold market is most likely to be substantially higher than official numbers would allow for.

For example, the London gold pool of 1958-1968 had secretly released gold into the markets in order to prevent BOTH street and official prices from getting beyond the official dollar exchange rate of $35. By some accountings, the pool had released much more than just the 20 thousand odd tonnes from the US, but more from "unofficial" state reserves in an unknown quantity probably on the order of a further 50,000 tonnes, and perhaps double that or more.

The deficit covered by the official and unofficial gold banking system is probably substantially over 1500 tonnes per year. If the production figure is actually 20% higher than official numbers and "consumption" and investment are 30% higher than stated, then the figure is more like 1300 tonnes for 1997, and 5000 tonnes for the decade till then. Since then, the deficit must have risen to a cumulative 6500 tonnes using these same assumptions. Using a more probable 20%-25% higher production and 40%-50% higher consumption, the deficit would be 1650 to 1850 tonnes per year.

If Mr Guyatt's numbers are anywhere near reality, then the markets have been absorbing some 10,000 tonnes per year since 1954, more than that before 1971, less than that till the early 80s and more than that in the period 1984-1990, and less again since that time. Since Mr. Guyatt holds that the central banks are the trustees of this gold, and there is no reason they would behave in any other way than they had in the past regarding anything entrusted to them, they would lend the gold to other governments and private individuals and corporations that are beneath creditworthiness. They would inevitably find themselves leveraged beyond any hope of salvation, and would then proceed to hide the fact by supplying the market from their unofficial reserves till those were tapped. From that point on, they would start inventing reasons to raid official reserves so that no sign is given the markets that gold is anything but plentiful. It is the old trick of putting up gold coins at the bank counter during a bank run. So long as depositors are convinced that the bank has gold to redeem their certificates and notes, they will not demand redemption, and the bank will survive. If someone is not satisfied and redeems the last ounce available to the bank, then the game is over.

I state here outright that the official figures are well beyond misleading, they are intentionally so. Nothing is more effectively avoided than customs, particularly in gold consuming and investing nations like India, China, the Asian Tigers, and definitely any Arab oil country and any place around the Mediterranean, most notably in Italy, Greece, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia etc... The numbers are simply released into the markets to hide the scale of the actual gold market and its degree of leverage - which is likely to be near immediate collapse due to illiquidity.

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights_dmsp_big.jpgNite view (recent) of Western World.....UNREAL!!
Looks like California is far from 'Dark'

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.aspgidsek

YGM
Cool picture. It scrolls to the east also. Japan is also very bright. I'm a bit worried about Canada though. They must turn in early. :-)

$hifty

You asked, "Can anybody out there explain in very simple English where 2,764 tonnes of Physical Gold sold over the last 10 years came from and how much more is left???"

And you also said, "I can't buy that one [Gold mine hedging makes up the difference] because a hedge is a contract or derivative ""PAPER"" representing physical Gold. When the Gold is delivered (usually by a mine) from a hedged position it becomes physical Gold added into the annual physical Gold consumption figures.Gold mines publish all Gold mined as it is mined, in annual reports! I don't believe unmined Gold could be added into consumption figures, until it's mined."

Given your preceding statement, along with your awareness that the LBMA clears on the average 700 -1000 gold tonnes daily, pause for a moment to consider the full depth of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's candid admission during Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that our modern money begs for a definition that no one is easily able to provide. And just as the simplistic response of "dollar" fails to pass muster due to the trading practices employed on related and derivative financial instruments, in like manner would the answer "yellow metal" come up short in defining what passes for gold in the modern gold markets.

When you open up your thought to include this ill-defined aspect of the gold market and the resulting impact on hard "supply" and "demand" figures, you can more easily come to understand how such gaps in the numbers may be filled. The hard numbers (and shortfall) you've cited tend to measure the institutional flow passing through the refineries (newly mined and scrap/recycled), the jewelers, and the mints; while missing much gold supply and demand related to bullion banking operations.

Just as conventional banking allows the same original dollar to appear to be in many places at once, through bullion banking the same can be said of gold. Picture two kilograms of last year's new production being refined into Johnson Matthey bars that go to supply one kilo investment demand and one kilo jewelry demand. The supply/demand numbers seem to balance. During the course of the year, picture that investment bar being deposited with a bullion banking member of the LBMA to be leased out to earn interest. Thus, when mine production next year provides two kilos of material to the Johnson Matthey refiner, can you see how the jewelry industry can easily have its new demands for three kilos met, though the standard numbers would suggest a shortfall?

The very tip of the iceberg, that. (Consider further the investment demand that is satisfied entirely within the bullion banking system without showing up or stressing the traditional, measurable investment outlets such as the Perth, Austrian, Royal Canadian, or U.S. mints.) Now, imagine the situation during crunch time!

Christmas decorations How are the Christmas decorations coming along? I'm thinking you are cooking up something real good. I'm starting to expect an extravaganza!

:-)

$hifty

Whole lotta Mushrooms up here!and then there's those that take the missus to bed early...Save on heating bills...so as to buy more Au/Ag :-))
Anyway if you look 2" east of Anchorage you might see the three lights of Yukon Towns....The Pic makes me feel Lucky more than Isolated....YGM

Three LightsI see them. Which one is your porch light? he he he
If it was a live web cam you could blink on and off!

$hifty

LightsCould be they are under the snow. You may have more neighbors than you think.

:-)

Things are too quiet tonight. Could be interesting in the morning.

$hifty

Anyone want to bet Greenspan knew 'nothing' about INTEL
sales numbers when he made his little speech Tues?
He truly is a human garbage.

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2422569AE0059A81A?OpenDocumentGold Fields-Franco Nevada merger dealt cruel blow

Gold Fields' hopes of merging with Canadian company Franco Nevada have been dented following the $830 million share swap between Anglo American and Rembrandt Holdings. The outcome of that transaction, announced on Wednesday (06 December), is that Anglo holds 17 per cent of Gold Fields. This is a large enough interest to obstruct the gold company's renewed merger proposals with Franco Nevada.

Willie Jacobsz, spokesman for Gold Fields, concedes his company will require a 68 per cent turnout in favour of the merger just to out-vote Anglo if the London-listed mining house decides the merger is not in its interests. In addition, Anglo requires just seven more per cent of Gold Fields to block the merger proposal outright.

This is assuming Anglo would want to block the merger. There is no consensus the mining house is against the potential Gold Fields-Franco Nevada transaction.

Market speculation is that a fresh merger proposal between Gold Fields and Franco Nevada is currently being reviewed by government. The South African finance ministry objected to Gold Fields' earlier merger proposal with Franco Nevada as the merged entity intended taking a primary listing in Toronto. Anglo might also object, too, assuming it operates in the interests of subsidiary AngloGold which is thought to covet some of Gold Fields' assets.

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights_dmsp_big.jpgImpressive sight.

A lot can be seen in the image. It puts a whole new meaning to the phrase " Africa, the dark continent".

Natural Gas prices have been on a tear recently. Prices have tripled over a year ago. The reason is quite simple. Natural Gas is a "New Economy" play. Demand for NG has risen in part because of the increased use of computers, which require electricity, much of which is from gas-fired power plants. That is part of the reason why NG stores are being depleted. Some analysts are now openly discussing depletion rates, storage levels, etc. Now the NYMEX has come up with its usual answer to rig the markets. Raise margins on NG contracts. Yep, just like they did with Palladium, these criminals are now rigging the NG markets by raising margin requirements. "If you can't win in a free market � then steal it" is their motto. The NYMEX raised margins on Dec. 5th in an across the board one-third increase with the option to raise it again as needed. The margin is the portion of the contract's value that must be held on deposit to guarantee a trade. NYMEX NG margin increased to $10,000 per contract for clearing members, $11,000 per contract for non-clearing members, and $13,500 per contract for nonmembers.

NG prices have run up since June when NG prices should have been lower, except for the heavy usage of power for air-conditioning. This is a result of the increased used of NG fired power plants, as coal, oil, and hydro-electric power plants are not considered environmentally friendly. That is a shift away from the long-held belief that NG was primarily a fuel to provide winter heat. As of November 24th, the American Gas Association estimated that there was 2.502 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage (11% lower than average). There are new estimates this month that it may actually be 17% lower. Interesting in that many who heat with NG may consider switching to heating oil that is refined from crude oil, which in turn could raise prices for crude oil. We may yet make it through this winter OK, but if we hope to be able to make through the next few years we had better ramp up exploration and production
View Yesterday's Discussion.

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2852569AD006A63D9?OpenDocumentThis article came out a couple of days ago, but it is too good to not share with the forum. - Black Blade


NEW YORK - Ashanti Goldfield's [NYSE: ASL] close brush with bankruptcy last year may yet have a sequel in an American court. A revised consolidated class action suit has been filed in the Eastern District Court of New York with the plaintiffs demanding unspecified damages for alleged reckless financial speculation. Instead of mining gold, out of pocket shareholders say Ashanti gambled with exotic financial instruments which success required the price of gold to decline indefinitely. CEO Sam Jonah and ex-CFO Mark Keatley are also named as defendants in their personal capacity. The most fearsome shareholder litigation machine in the US � Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach � is leading the suit on behalf of four plaintiffs. The firm, regarded by many as a vexatious parasite on America Inc., has extracted billions of dollars in insider trading settlements from companies wishing to avoid jury trials. Ashanti is pleading immunity via the Ghana Courts Act based on back-up filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Act holds a Ghanaian company accountable to foreign litigation only if the case is tried locally and its judgements upheld. Those pressing the class action think differently: "Defendant Ashanti is subject to personal jurisdiction [in New York] by virtue of its sale of public securities in the United States."

Ghanaian judge or American jury

Ashanti's major shareholders � some with obvious vested interests � are no doubt anxious for the Ghana Courts Act to prevail. However, should Ashanti succeed in drawing protection from the Act, it will be a Pyrrhic victory because of the inevitable damage to investor confidence in Ghanaian companies operating offshore. James Sinclair, a sagacious 40-year veteran of the gold market says the case is: "Very important to the investors side of the industry because it reveals the lack of procedure or lack of knowledge of proper procedures required to make decisions in the hedge system. There is no market for the hedge instruments. There is only a system." Ashanti's hedge book imploded in the wake of the decision by European central banks to limit gold sales. In the days succeeding that September 26, 1999 announcement, the gold price rocketed $53 an ounce and caught out everyone short on the yellow metal, none more so than mines with deferred forward contracts coming to maturity. The class action centres on the repeated assurances of Ashanti officials that its hedge book was a perpetual asset. In a September 29 press release, Ashanti tried to assuage investor concern about its exposure to the soaring gold price, saying the hedge book had been restructured and "continues to be actively managed and tightly controlled."

Catastrophic losses

By October 5, the firm was forced to admit that bullion banks had issued margin calls amounting to $270m as hedging liabilities exploded past available cash resources. The share price tumbled to $5.5 from $9.38 (-41%) within hours of the news. The mark-to-market value of Ashanti's hedge book suffered a catastrophic near-$1bn reverse, going from positive $290m to negative $570m in a matter of days. The Financial Times described the hedging losses with characteristic understatement as "unusually high as a proportion of total reserves." The hedge book unravelled, shareholders say, because Ashanti had relied on "cheap, high risk derivatives." Those facts are quite bare, but the harshest criticism is reserved for Ashanti's lack of disclosure. The suit accuses Ashanti of doing precisely the opposite of what successive SEC filings stated - to use hedging to protect it from the vagaries of the gold price. "Undisclosed to investors, through the purported 'hedge' book, Ashanti had converted itself from a gold mining company into a financial entity that was speculating recklessly on future gold price volatility."

Financial speculation

Plaintiffs allege Ashanti was economical in disclosing its hedging exposure, principally in failing to detail the volatility of the "exotics" it was exposed to. The hedge book, through which Ashanti had sold forward seven years of production (10m oz), was structured solely to take advantage of a falling gold price whilst securing up-front premium income. It may well be that not even Ashanti could have quantified its true exposure even if it had wanted to because the contracts were so complex. Hungry for development capital at the time, it appeared to be a canny strategy. So much so that analysts at Investec and Merrill Lynch issued glowing recommendations on Ashanti just before the crisis. Little did they know that within weeks it would issue warrants on one seventh of its share capital and be forced to sell half of the Geita project in Tanzania. Observers say the best indication of the likely success of the class action will come from the discovery process. Depositioned defendants are subject to ruthless grilling by the opposing legal team who have one goal � to find a chink in the armour that might coerce an early settlement. Plaintiffs' have already pounced on unguarded comments Jonah made to the press last year. He told the Financial Times: "I am prepared to concede we were reckless. We took a bet on the price of gold. We thought it would go down and we took a position." That's fodder for the likes of Milberg Weiss and it will no doubt press home the attack by drawing attention to Ashanti's latest financial results for the nine-months to end September. A breakdown of operating profits shows that without hedging, Ashanti would have incurred severe losses with most of the income sucked up by a top-heavy head office. That might add sufficient weight to the argument that Ashanti is involved in gold speculation, not "mining and processing of gold ores and the exploration and development of gold properties in Africa." The history of shareholder litigation suggests we may never find out if a court would concur that the bulk of a company's profits should come from activities central to its self-description. It's a fascinating question in an age where the corporate treasury is all but indivisible from operating divisions. Whatever the outcome, the most enduring legacy will be intense investor scrutiny of hedge books and little mercy for financial engineers who don't come clean with the facts.

By Tim Wood

Black Blade: We haven't had this much fun since Bre-X. Take note Barrick and AngloGold! Gold price may go up one of these days.

Source: BridgeNewsNatural Gas Out of Control SmallCapCenter.com (Bridge News)
December 06, 2000

Natural gas futures blasted through $8 on the New York Mercantile Exchange this morning, climbing as high as $8.80 per thousand cubic feet - prompting at least one trader to tell Dow Jones News Services the market is "out of control." The January New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures contract set a new record high of $8.80 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, up more than $1.40. New contract highs were also posted for February-May 2001. Traders expect the Nymex to set trading limits at $1.50/MMBtu. Immediate confirmation from the Nymex was unobtainable despite repeated calls. At 9:44 a.m. EST, the January contract was trading around $8.55/MMBtu, up $1.166/MMBtu from Tuesday's record high $7.384 settlement.

New cold weather forecasts are driving the prices, pressing peak demand. Bullish indications of a large storage draw from the American Gas Association this afternoon are also a factor. If the $1.50 trading limit is breached, then the Nymex is expected to stop trading. When trading resumes, one trader said he expected to see selling bring the contract back down. "This market's out of control," Tom Saal of Pioneer Futures Inc. told Dow Jones. He sees a "massive, backwardated market." On Tuesday, the Nymex raised margins on its Henry Hub natural gas contract to $10,000 from $7,500 for clearing members; to $11,000 from $8,250 for members and up to $13,500 from $10,125 for customers. It's the third time in less than two weeks the exchange has raised margins, making it much more expensive to trade.

"You have to stay aboard this train," said one Houston trader told Dow Jones. Overnight rallying has carried prices well above the $8.00 per million British Thermal Units level "and should prompt the day session to do the same," he said. Early AGA predictions are for a draw of about 90 billion cubic feet in this afternoon's AGA report, following the pattern of large draws at the beginning of the winter heating season. another bullish signal.

Inflation is coming, regardless of the market manipulators!

By MATHEW INGRAM Globe and Mail Update

Kind of makes you wish you had bought natural gas stocks about six months ago, doesn't it? Just as many industry watchers said they might, natural gas prices have skyrocketed into record territory � soaring by more than 75 per cent in the past month alone � and that means homeowners who use gas will be getting a nasty shock. Investors who were smart enough to move into oil and gas stocks, however, are trying hard not to smile.

Natural gas prices almost always spike up when there's a big cold snap, the kind currently gripping most of North America, resulting from what weather watchers for some reason choose to call a "polar pig" coming down from the Arctic. But this is more than just the usual seasonal blip � it is the inevitable outcome of a chain of events that has been taking place in both Canada and the U.S. for the past five or six years, and one which is still going on today.

The bottom line is that prices are likely to remain high for at least the next few years. Not as high as they are now, perhaps, but still far higher than in previous years - prices are more than three times as high as they were a year ago, and might retract to the point where they are only twice as high as they have been historically, but are unlikely to go much farther. In fact, eventually the prices from yesteryear will be the ones that look odd by comparison.

Unlike the crude oil business, searching for the reasons behind the natural gas price rise doesn't involve trying to analyze the complicated inner workings of a secretive cartel such as OPEC. The current prices for natural gas are almost purely a function of that age-old one-two punch of supply and demand, although some of the factors that produced this spike started taking place several years ago and are only now making themselves felt.

In the larger sense, the issue is this: the United States needs more and more gas and has been producing less and less, leaving Canada to fill in the gaps. But Canadian producers haven't been producing as much as they might have, a result in part of lower prices for crude oil in 1998 and 1999. That has put the North American industry into an extremely tight supply situation, one that it is going to take some time to work out of.

In the not-too-distant past, Canadian gas prices were far lower than U.S. prices � as much as $2 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) or 60 per cent lower � because there wasn't enough pipeline capacity to take the gas from Alberta and B.C. to the United States, where the demand was. That meant gas backed up in Alberta and created a glut, driving prices down.

Then along came the Alliance pipeline, started by a group of producers who were tired of waiting for Nova Corp. and TransCanada PipeLines to provide more routes to the U.S. After more than four years of planning, the $4.7-billion pipeline finally opened for business last month � but there still isn't enough natural gas being produced to fill it.

Part of the problem is that crude oil prices tend to subsidize natural gas drilling to some extent, and when crude was in the tank in 1998 and much of 1999, there wasn't a whole lot of drilling going on. Since an entire industry can't start on a dime when things turn around, there's an inevitable time delay before more supply can appear on the scene.

That's about where things stand now: U.S. producers haven't kept up their production either for the past few years, which means that inventories are at extremely low levels. Demand, however, has been steadily rising, thanks in part to an ongoing move away from heating oil and coal to natural gas for things such as electrical power plants.

In California, for example, power generators are required by law to switch to gas � which helps explain why the price of natural gas in that state is about $37 per million British Thermal Units (one mmBTU is roughly equivalent to a thousand cubic feet or mcf). That's more than four times what prices are in other states, where gas is averaging $8.50 per mmBTU, and more than 16 times what they were last year at this time.

Some analysts expect that natural gas prices will go through $10 at some point this winter, and that while they may retreat to the $4.50 or $5 level once the winter is over, they will probably stay at that level for the next couple of years � about twice what they were last year. In other words, don't feel too badly because you missed the initial runup in natural gas stocks: the big spike may have come and gone, but there's plenty of juice left to keep them healthy for the foreseeable future.

http://news.24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,1466,2-8-21_951469,00.html
by Jodie Ginsberg

London � Palladium prices roared to all-time highs on Thursday as fears mounted over supplies out of top producer Russia for the new year. Palladium reached $895/$910 a troy ounce in European afternoon trade, at 1547 GMT, following market talk that some palladium exporters would not be shipping metal until the European spring, analysts said. "That, and an announcement there would be no further supplies out of Russia in 2000, has conspired to push palladium prices to new highs," said Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com. A senior member of the group controlling Russia's sole producer, Norilsk Nickel, said on Thursday that Russian palladium holders had used up their 2000 export quotas and would not sell any more this year.

Supplies out of Russia, which produces around two-thirds of the world's palladium, have been erratic since 1997 and traders fear 2001 will be no different despite assurances that export quotas are being prepared to ensure prompt delivery. Those fears could push palladium prices even higher before the year's end, traders said. Some speculated the metal could go as high as $1000 although the next immediate target was seen as $900. Thursday's fresh high exceeded by $20 the previous all-time high set on Monday of $875.

A softer US dollar was helping to support palladium prices, analysts added. The dollar fell to 11-week lows against the euro on Thursday amid a renewed slide in US stock prices and concerns that economic growth in the US is slowing. A softer dollar is supportive of the dollar-denominated precious metals since it makes them relatively cheaper for non-US buyers. "The combination of the supply fears and of a slightly easier dollar in anticipation of a slowdown in the US has definitely boosted PGMs," Norman said.

Black Blade: Let's see here, "Russian palladium holders had used up their 2000 export quotas�." Now that's an interesting statement. Prices rocketed because they haven't been able to deliver, yet they delivered their quota. Look out next year! Palladium at $1000 is entirely possible now.

There is a rumor that Turkey has become a heavy seller of gold as it's economy collapses. The Turkish economy is in a free-falling spiral and the rumor is that Turkey has finally resorted to selling official sector gold in a desperate attempt to stop the blood-letting. Anyone hear of this happening? I have seen only a one line statement so far.

- Black Blade

http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtmlNG may have pulled back a bit in some places, but is at a new all-time high in Southern California.

Black Blade 43190
VERY significant if true, and it is plausable. Then there are the other financial/fiat crisis' simmering around the world.

Add to the pot, The argument that Sierra Madre makes "In the coming crisis, there will be no self restraint"."Do not expect reason to prevail" and the arguments put forward by Oro 43173 Randy, 43177 and Beesting, (all of which I agree with, by the way), and Russia as it exists today is starting to look good. Actually, I really do forecast at least as bad.

I am reminded of the old saw about the smoker who had read so many bad things about smoking that he had to give up reading.

The world as we know it is unravelling, a bit at a time, but at an ever faster pace; maybe one should give up and hide ones head. When the fabric finally tears, the prognosis is very, very bad. There are so many negative factors, and the permutations and combinations are endless. There are going to be VERY many deaths before this plays out.

At least most here have done at least 1 smart thing, in accumulating physical. I wonder how many things I will look back and say, I wish I had thought of that. But then that is the reason I frequent this forum, so many thoughtful posts. My thanks.

Good Luck to all.

j'Bear

Talk the talk or walk the walk, boy!

 US Repeating Arms Corp. - Winchester rifles & shotguns
 Colt Firearms
 Accuracy International
 Ruger
 Mossberg
 Beretta
 Heckler & Koch
 CZ
 Browning
 Marlin
 Springfield Armory
 Remington
 Ithaca
 Taurus
 Walther
 Benelli
 Armalite
 Les Baer
 Para-Ordnance
 Thompson/Center Arms
 Steyer Mannlicher
 Dakota Arms
 Weatherby
 Mauser
 Olympic Arms
 SigSauer
 STI
 Tanfoglio
 Unique
 Z-M Weapons
 Kimber
 Lazzeroni Arms
 Wilson Combat
 Davide Pedersoli & Co.
 Robar
 Entreprise Arms
 Hesse Arms
 DSA Inc.

I found a list yesterday but cannot find a single 'ticker'.

Can anyone help me?

TIA

silvercollector

BananiaWith the concepts left in that choice article ; the premise
is innately self explanatory . My first spontainious thought was , if I were to win a prize for explaining something where the reader is left/forced by way of reason into fundamentally understanding in so many words or less the entirety of the matter . Banania is in (essence) the issue of the cummulative effect of the discussions we have is it not ?. :).
Anyone can prove that they have good judgement by simply declaring that you have ... ( readers digest ), ... but nevertheless , "An A for Bright" Sir Randy as it reinforced my own babble quite clearly in a more lucid light :).
Who turned the dark off.... why Sir Randy :)

Buy gold!, forget mother may I. Do it and quit crying.

We rule. screw the politicians!

TurkeyNow that wouldnt surprise me , a few promises during the gulf trouble? , Communications poised to high tech and an airfield or two in exchange for a tip off on the international financal crystal ball. They booked up the credit card and found problems.
A timely reminder to all on a personal level dont do it unless you can afford the risk.

I try not to think of this but it is difficult when you are a futures trader like I.

In Oct, 1999, the Mrs. and I attended an investment conference in San Diego. One of the companies presenting was a NatGas drilling company with a big field in Tenn. We talked to them about making an investment as they were looking for qualified investors.

You pony up 12K or 15K and you get a 1/4 cut in each of 4 possible drill sites. As I remember at some point you pony up another identical sum. I forget all the details.

Anyway, we decided against it as we had just moved to Italy and were concerned about Y2K and all that and we did not have any speculative capital left.

Needless to say I am a little sad most days seeing what is happening in the NatGas arena.

Please, no sympathy. I can find sympathy in the dictionary, between sh*t and syphylis.

It's just my tale of woe.

Posted above gate to Auswitz.

You believe it!

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices took another tumble on Friday as dealers braced for the expected resumption of U.N.-monitored Iraqi oil exports. London Brent blend futures fell 60 cents to $26.87 a barrel, extending a seven-day slump to $5.79, 18 percent. U.S. light crude dipped 69 cents to $28.76. Latest losses were largely triggered by news that United Nations oil overseers had recommended the U.N. Security Council's sanctions committee approve new December oil price proposals for Iraqi crude sales. Once the prices are approved Iraq can resume exports of crude at its two main outlets -- Ceyhan in Turkey and Mina al-Bakr on the Gulf.

Industry sources said the two terminals remained at a standstill on Friday, the eighth day without Iraq's 2.3 million barrels daily, five percent of internationally traded oil. But a handful of issues were still lingering that could delay the resumption of exports just a bit longer, traders said. ``I think they're just waiting for the committee to give approval,'' said one, noting that approval could come on Friday. The U.N. sanctions committee has until 2300 GMT on Friday to object to Iraq's proposals. But other traders said the break between the eighth and ninth phases of the U.N.'s oil-for-food program could present a problem as the last phase technically ended on December 5. Baghdad has yet to formally sign on to the ninth phase of the six-month humanitarian aid program, which the United Nations approved earlier this week. Some traders said exports could not technically move ahead without some clarification as to which phase they would apply to, although others said it should not be a problem. Five tankers were seen at anchor near Mina al-Bakr, all of which were originally part of the eighth phase. Oil traders said Baghdad appeared to have dropped a demand for a 50-cent per barrel surcharge to be paid by its customers directly into an Iraqi controlled account and side-stepping U.N. controls. Iraq was widely believed to have reduced the original selling prices to compensate for the surcharge, which buyers of Iraqi oil had refused to pay because it violated U.N. sanctions. U.N. diplomats said that Iraq's new prices include incentives to entice buyers who are perceived as reluctant after a week of suspended crude exports.

Profit-Takers Move In On Gas

A slide in U.S. natural gas prices on forecasts of milder weather across eastern parts of the United States is also weighing on crude markets. U.S. wholesale gas hit record peaks this week on expectations of an Arctic blast, but prices have been knocked down as traders moved in to pocket profits. Concerns remain, however, over thin U.S. natural gas stocks with inventories last week pegged at about 17 percent below year-ago levels and about 10 percent below the five year average.

Black Blade: Yeah, but what if snows this winter? The Iraqis haven't started loading tankers yet. All this and it's not even winter yet. Hmmmmm������.

but NEVER the Schutzstaffel or the Bushzstaffel

Algor, Dan Quayle is beckoning you for your place in history.

Today we await 3 court decisions. Anyone for Gore and the markets tank. If decisions fall in favor for Bush, then the market rallies. Who ever wins becomes the Herbert Hoover of our generation. This house of cards (the stock market and economy) can't last much longer. The price of gold will have to break loose. Hey, look at palladium � now it sits on $900.00. Hopefully after the new year I can rebalance soon investments and get a lot more PMs.

Markets are on a tear this morning even with earnings warnings all over the news! Why? Because the economy is slowing and more people are out of work (fewer consumers with discretionary income). Huh? These are the headlines on Quicken.com:

Job Growth Slowed in November as Unemployment Rate Edged up to 4.0%

Could get fun

- Black Blade

Good morning, all!
Fear not, all will be well, for Homer Simpson will intervene and everything will turn out OK.
Thank God we still have heroes!

Sierra

http://www.bhp.com/default.asp?page=702#111BHP - a metals, steel, and energy exploration/development company has decided to overhaul its risk management practices:

"Importantly, BHP will now manage market risk at the portfolio level, taking into account the Company's natural diversification benefits, rather than the previous practice of hedging individual price risks on a transaction or asset basis."

Hope this is the start of a trend.

L.

Oro,

Any idea of the time frame for the "artifical" gold market to collapse? Within 3 months, six months, a year, perhaps longer?

Firearms manufactorersCheck RGR ( Strum Ruger & Company Inc. )
Its the only symbol I could find the other day.

$hifty

Hi Sir jBear # 43157,
One ounce of Gold = cost of a mans suit.
That mans suit equation is a tough one. Assumming material costs the same anywhere in the world(And it never would)it boils down to cost of labor in different parts of the world. It's kind of like a friend I had who was going to a huge sale about 80 miles away to save money on some purchases. He ended up spending much more on travel expenses than he saved on the purchases.

Thanks Randy # 43177 and ORO # 43173....Statistics on Gold!

I agree statistics always have wide margins for error.....current case in point the U.S. election fiasco! I think many countries hide or simply don't reveal full disclosure on many things, especially financial.
my wife says,"" as acting head Central Banker of Banania the financial statistics she would release to the world, would always be in the best interests of the Banania people.""

Me:
Yea, Yea, dear, but don't self interests have priority over everything else, or are you another Ghandi?? Also, that Gold jewellery sure looks nice on you dear, or should I call you Mrs. Marcus?.....beesting.

I'm only a dabbler as far as the PPT goes, especially in comparison to ORO, BUT - - -

ORO suggested a few posts ago that the PPT, or "government money" came into the money on open because there wasn't any other reasonable explanation, particularly, money isn't coming out of other stock areas, that is, all sectors are strong.

Further according to ORO, the PPT operates in the futures because that's the way to get the most bang for the buck, and the last operation involved jumping in just before and after the markets opened.

Also, of course, the PPT object is to get other big players to jump on the bandwagon, so you want some apparent predictibility, so you want to convince players that what happened before will happen again. This means you have to do the same thing a few times before everyone catches on -- then perhaps the biggies will bite and you can stampede the whole herd.

It's also not irrelevant that it's Friday and it looks like the knock-out blow might come for Gore, which would have momentum of it's own. Greenspan made a comment awhile ago that implied "they" know "they" can't go against the market, but instead "goose" it when it's going the "right" direction.

This smells like basic "Games Theory" in acton to me.

Now consider that CNBC reporting today has consistently revealed that the early action was in the futures markets just before and right after opening. Further, Intel went UP despite warning. The CNBC spin is that now maybe markets have finally bottomed, and Intel going WAY up in the face of warning is the sign. Give me a REALLY big break! Why haven't the other companies that warned gone through the roof too?

Intel: What a great stock future to manipulate under the circumstances. Now I may be whistling in the wind, but - - - what do YOU think?

Regards,
Journeyman

ORO also pointed out that the previous "on market opening action" showed because the markets hit their high early in the day when the "government money" hit, and the markets dropped the rest of the day.

QUESTION: ASS-U-ME ing the hypothesis is correct, will enough big money players catch on, or will the herd be stampeeded on this second interation of the PPT "buy futures on open" strategy?

Keep in mind, games theory says you change your strategy -- subtly -- when the other players catch on to your current strategy.

Regards,
Journeyman

The feint rumblings of gold market thunder coming our way.

canamami, beesting

I do not have a distinct time frame to provide outside of a simple "within the next couple of years". The raiding of the public gold holdings around the globe was obviously a sign of heavy distress, as was the heavy printing of paper gold in the period 1995-2000, particularly 1995-7 and late 1999-early 2000.

The great sign would be the revival of spot premiums on gold bars and on coins - so far, holders have had coins displaced by bullion and paper. When the bullion no longer arrives to displace the coins and small bars, the premiums on them will recover as they had before the 1999 spike. That should be the sign to watch.

I am still trying to make some sense out of D. Guyatt's numbers and their significance. It should be noted that the gold certificates indicate that gold was deposited at a financial institution. That institution would either hold it or lend it. The bulk of the deposits are old, and as financial institutions tend to do, they will have lent the gold. As the investigation into one large gold certificate revealed, 80% of the gold behind the certificate was lent. The 20% reserve this implies is not in "earthquake inducing" territory. However, that was some years back - in the early 90s. The credit boom that has emerged since then, and the paper gold (derivatives) explosion that grew in parallel would indicate that the 20% reserve of some 6 years ago is probably substantialy less today.

In trying to guesstimate the current reserve ratio, I came up with this:
Total financial gold about 800,000 tonnes (very uncertain number)
At 20% reserves in 1994 within the "unofficial" banking sector through which these funds came, we have 160,000 tonnes. Since 1994 we had a growth of 22,000 tonnes in derivatives outstanding, and this implies a further minimum of 22,000 in gold accounts. This brings us to an "official" 44,000 tonnes of reported and implied "OTC" paper. That means that reserves have fallen to about 110,000, while obligations have grown to around 850,000 - which implies a reserve ratio of 13%. That is close to "earthquake" territory.

If we assume that the "revealed" portion of derivatives is concurrent with an "underground" portion, then that would be implying a further 40% (just to have some number to use) of paper gold off the books, which would make the unofficial reserve more like 95,000 tonnes, and the overall paper some 865,000 tonnes, giving us an 11% reserve.

Historically, a 25% reserve is the lowest level that a gold banking system has managed to survive in "good times". There is no reason to believe it would be otherwise today. The US system had collapsed at 3% reserves in 1929-30 despite all-out efforts to hide the fragility. In 1971, the Bretton Woods system collapsed with about 5% reserves despite massive political support around the globe.

The current system, being entirely below ground, must be held to a tighter standard because it is less susceptible to propaganda and more prone to distrust. Furthermore, it is very dependent on political support - which is not expected to be maintained.

Take into consideration that this is based on uncertain numbers and a single snapshot of one certificate around which there is much doubt.

In support of this, I should repeat that attacking public official gold holdings "in broad daylight" is a sign of trouble - weakness - in the global gold banking system, both on the official and unofficial levels. The revelation of the LBMA to the "outsider" public is another sign of weakness, just as the Goldman gold pile in the COMEX warehouses is a sign of weakness in its revalation of the need to display the availability of gold in public. All of these are the common signs of desparation that have historically preceded a bank run.



Will be out again for a few days.

"the PPT object is to get other big players to jump on the bandwagon" (I can do this with a 4yr-old dangling a Slinky in my face... Right)

I imagine the Game Theory is to use public (Fed) money to goose others into using their own (and clients') money to keep things at a desired level. Of course "their own" is at different degrees of ownership committal -- one's personal exit might have been months ago, while keeping the firm's capital on the line, and customers even more exposed, to cover one's own (or firm's) exit, or to play the day's trading ranges.

Also, not to miss any mass herd move into equities before year-end (bad performance review!)

Keeping the doubt level up so a snowball of shorting (carry trade reversed) doesn't get going against both the Dow and the Dollar.

Didn't quite get that thought out. Oh well.

Second line, on Derivatives. Has anyone here detailed the number of hands your winning options bets must go through before you have cash in hand? Counterparty margin call, Comex reserves & insurance backup?, Comex dealer/broker, dealer/broker's bank account & bank, your bank & account, and finally dollars-in-hand, the biggest lump of derivatives existant. All that in order to, eventually, get hands on Real Goods.

Link between the two topics: I'm running a mental fuse on my Bear fund, which is ahead now, but I plan to be mostly out by end of December, because: Every trick Greenie pulls to goose the landing velocity of the markets invokes a future added brittleness to the Payments system. In other words, an uncollectible winning bet.

Historical note: Greenspan came into the job in 1987 with a Payments System crisis just ahead of him, and worked the international phones relentlessly, and talked out some bullheaded big bank players into cooperating into keeping it going. Avoiding a payments system breakdown, not maintaining the Bubble, is what he sees as his mission.

Right now he must see it as just playing for time. "Maybe it won't hit so hard, we'll see" Even though the set-up is worse than '87. Maybe he just thinks some of Bill Clinton's "comeback kid" luck has rubbed off on him. It's worth a try, huh? Game Theory.