USAGOLD Discussion - February 2001

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 00:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47059)
Good
This was a good day.

Canuck -- tee hee!

Oro -- Congratulations! The Hebrew prophet Hanina ben Dosa said "If my prayer is fluent, then I know God has heard me." On the more earthly level, good writing is more than its own reward; you are able to communicate clear thinking to your fellows.

Black Blade: I realize now it is YOU who has recently kept me back from advertising for sale that "new" 8kw diesel generator that has sat unwired-up and unused in our barn two years now. But -- hey! -- it's gone up $500 at the dealers since we bought it. Best investment of Y2k? Think I should open a "paper generator" market? Sell generator futures? hee heeView Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 00:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47060)
RE: CRASHPAD (01/31/01; 13:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 47034)

Black Blade: I don't follow the case for "The Population Bomb" as the title of a once popular book suggests. I think that when one looks at the case of California, then this is a case of immigration more than anything else. Southern California is a desert. They had to strip away water from Owens and Long Valleys to the east, and from northern California. The point is, the energy problem is aggravated by a population "shift" that has not been accommodated with the building of adequate infrastructure, where energy is just one component. In the 1980's when the "New Economy" was in its infancy, there were concerns about energy. I remember when lack of water was a concern not only because of the drought, but because there were potential problems for energy generation from hydroelectric facilities such as Hetch Hetchy reservoir. They knew then that there was a serious problem developing and that the emerging "New Economy" in places such as Silicon Valley would need to be accommodated. The local population also expanded tremendously as population "shifted" and yet again, the planners were asleep at the switch so to speak. Californians have always assumed that the rest of the west would serve them as "Energy Farms." That assumption turned out to be a bad miscalculation.

I can see where one may be concerned about the "population growth" debate, however, on the west cost (including the Pacific Northwest), there have been massive "population shifts" from some areas to others without adequate preparation of infrastructure. Many people of the northwest tend to offer the "one finger salute" every time they spot a vehicle with California license plates (no, they're not being told that they are number one). This could be viewed as a modern day version of the "Great Migration" of the 1930's when Okies and Arkies made there way to California during the Dust Bowl years. Now there is a migration of many that wish to be a part of and on the leading edge of the Tech Boom in California and other areas of the once booming west coast economy. That said, the majority of the people in California want the benefits of the booming economy, but not the costs. They would rather that the population of the other western states shoulder the burden.

At least that's my take on it. Cheers!
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 00:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47061)
RE: Mr. Gresham
You just might need that generator one of these days. We may yet dodge a bullet this year. The supply of NG is low, and the increasing use of NG will likely continue through the summer. That will mean NG supply for power generation will be ever more "tight." With a generator and other supplies, I guess that would make you and yours one big happy family of "Ants." ;-)
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 00:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47062)
RE: pandagold and Brit Humour
Black Blade: Oh, I can appreciate Brit humour. It appears that some Brits can't however. This following piece caught my eye, and I found it quite amusing. Cheers!




The joke that went flat in Parliament:


MP's sheep joke sparks uproar in Parliament

05.07.2000 - By AUDREY YOUNG political reporter

The Speaker, Jonathan Hunt, is pressing for further action from Alliance whip Grant Gillon to make amends for his comments in Parliament yesterday about sheep.

National MPs took grave offence at implications in a question Mr Gillon asked.

"I want to ask the minister whether, no pun intended, it's appropriate in this case for a woman's body parts to be inserted into a sheep when that has normally been the domain of Tory males?"

The question was a follow-up to a serious question to the Health Minister by the Greens about whether the consent of blood donors should be sought before their DNA is inserted into animals.

Mr Hunt did not hear the question but asked that Mr Gillon withdraw and apologise because of the offence taken and asked a second time more loudly.

A few minutes later he was informed of the comments and said that had he heard them, he would have demanded Mr Gillon leave the chamber.

Mr Hunt has written to Alliance leader Jim Anderton asking to meet him and Mr Gillon to further discuss the matter.

And he has written to the Leader of the House, Michael Cullen, saying he believed some further action should be taken.

"A motion of censure is one approach. The other approach is for Mr Gillon to get up in the House [today] and ask for leave to make a personal statement and make an absolutely abject apology and agree that he was very foolish in what he said."

It is understood National is considering advancing a motion to send it to the privileges committee.

Its MPs are suggesting that if John Carter had to lose his whip's job impersonating a Maori on talkback radio, Mr Gillon should lose his.

National's shadow leader of the House, Roger Sowry, has called for Mr Gillon to be sacked.

"He has stepped way over the line. His behaviour is simply unparliamentary and unprofessional."

Labour's chief whip, Rick Barker, said he would be gone from his post had he said it.

But Mr Anderton said it was "inappropriate" and it would not happen again.

Mr Gillon said last night: "I think in hindsight it was inappropriate."

Mr Hunt said Mr Gillon would not get a supplementary question for a long time.




Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 00:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47063)
RE: working-kirk
I just read your post! We must have had our minds linked - read my post to CRASHPAD. Cheers!
Old Yeller
(02/01/2001; 01:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47064)
Fresh sqeezed to start the morning in style

Leonard Kaplan at Prospector Asset Management had some interesting comments in his January 31,commentary.

"In gold, we had a nice rally off the lows seen last week.However it is my opinion that we must cross $268.50 in the cash(about $270.50 vis-a-vis April) to really force serious short covering by the extremely large number of speculative shorts.I look forward to their pain."

Gotta love that last sentence.
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 01:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 47065)
What a Mess
Watching CSPAN tonight...testimony before Senate Committee on Energy.

Aluminum smelters in the west selling energy back since it's more profitable than smelting aluminum for eventual sale.

That's what happens when things get backasswards!
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 01:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47066)
Next energy crisis: natural-gas supply
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/SeattleTimes.woa/wa/gotoArticle?zsection_id=268466359&text_only=0&slug=gas31m&document_id=134264087
by Lynda V. Mapes Seattle Times staff reporter Meet the next energy crunch: natural gas.

Energy planners see continued high gas prices and potential shortages within the next few years unless both pipeline capacity and gas supplies can keep up with potentially explosive new demand. A proposed $10 billion natural-gas pipeline in Alaska might help address the problem, but that help is more than seven years away, planners say - and even if the pipeline is built, it's not clear whether the Northwest will have access to the gas flowing through it. The Alaskan pipeline will be on the agenda Friday when governors from around the West, including Washington's Gary Locke, convene with the U.S. secretary of energy and several Federal Energy Regulatory Commission members at a Portland forum on the energy crisis convened by the Western Governors' Association. Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles is expected to make his pitch for the $10 billion pipeline, which has already been endorsed by the association.

In Washington state, natural gas is primarily used by residential and commercial customers. But the current energy crisis has added a major new user: gas-fired plants to produce electricity. At least a half-dozen gas-fired turbines are now in the proposal or permitting stage in Washington. If all of them are built, statewide natural-gas consumption is projected to increase 147 percent by 2010, according to the state Office of Trade and Economic Development. It's not clear how that volume of natural gas could come to the state because both major gas pipelines serving Washington are already running near capacity.

One major pipeline company, PG&E Gas Transmission Northwest, is already mulling a new cross-Cascades line to meet future demand. The company is also beginning the first of what could be several expansions of its existing line, said Sandra McDonough, a vice president of PG&E National Energy Group in Portland. "Basically our pipeline is very full right now to meet demand in the Northwest and California," McDonough said. Energy planners concerned about gas supply have turned their eyes north to Canada, where there are less than 10 years of proven reserves, even based on current demand. Gas prices in Washington state are already spiking, soaring last month on the spot market as high as $17 for a million cubic feet. Few see a return to the prices of less than $2 per million cubic feet that were routine just two years ago.

New plants would boost demand

Washington gets most of its natural gas from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. But gas that's easy to reach and process has already been tapped. Now suppliers are mostly drilling deeper wells and finding smaller pools. Yet we may have seen only the beginnings of future demand. "If we are going to put all our eggs in the turbine basket, or even any of them, we are going to need a way to increase delivery of more gas to the state in a quick fashion," said Dave Warren, director of the energy-policy office at the state Office of Trade and Economic Development. "We have concerns about being able to meet our demands in the next five or six years if all of these generators come online, or even any of them." But how helpful an Alaskan natural-gas pipeline could be to the Northwest depends on two things: how soon it is built, and what access Washington would have to the gas. The pipeline has been intended to tap abundant natural gas in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay and bring it to the Midwest. On the most ambitious schedule, the pipeline could be delivering gas within seven years, said Wilson Condon, commissioner of the Alaska Department of Revenue. And regional energy planners are likely to lobby at this week's governors conference for access to that Alaskan gas. "It's obviously a potential piece of the solution," said Warren, who will be at the conference.

Planners caught by surprise

The natural-gas issue has taken some energy planners by surprise. "It was a sleeper," Warren said. "We started doing our analysis and looking at the data and said, `Uh-oh.' The whole pipeline infrastructure was not planned in anticipation of gas-turbine generation." Mark Glyde of the Northwest Energy Coalition, made up of environmental groups and some utilities, warned that the region is making a big mistake if it seeks to solve its electricity woes by going whole-hog for natural-gas power plants. "Let's not solve one crisis by creating another," he said. A smarter course, Glyde said, would be a diversified menu of sources, including wind power - currently cheaper than natural gas, per kilowatt-hour - and conservation to reduce demand. Paula Pyron, executive director of the Northwest Industrial Gas Users in Portland, sees several reasons for the gas-price increase and potential shortages ahead. As of November, Canadian suppliers began sending gas east that the Northwest used to have sole access to. A new pipeline to Chicago means there is new demand for Canadian gas when the weather is cold both here and in the Midwest. Increasing the pressure has been demand by power plants in California, which is already sucking in huge amounts of natural gas. Finally, dry weather in the Northwest has raised the demand for gas to meet energy needs that can't be served by dams whose reservoirs are low. Nonetheless, Carol Jolly, deputy policy director for Washington's governor, said the name of the game is not to endlessly increase supply but to get more efficient. "We don't want to focus on the providing-more-supply side of the equation," Jolly said. "We want to focus on reducing demand. It's like highways. Building more doesn't mean you solve the traffic problem." The convergence of two industries - natural gas being used to generate electricity - is also creating new interest by the public and private sectors in making a reality what for 20 years was only a pipe dream: the pipeline to tap natural gas in Prudhoe Bay. The North Slope has proven natural-gas reserves of 35 trillion cubic feet, the country's mother lode of natural gas. By year's end, oil companies with rights to the gas are expected to spend $75 million studying the project.

Lynda V. Mapes covers energy and environmental issues for The Seattle Times. She can be reached at 206-464-2736, or at lmapes@seattletimes.com.



Black Blade: We here at the forum weren't caught by surprise as these people were. We were ahead of the curve on this one. Now Main Street America is just beginning to wake up to the seriousness of this problem. The economy is about to take a dive. We are in the "end-game" people. Energy is the trigger and the trigger has been pulled. Keep on top of the issues and always be prepared! Buy the necessities first, that which is needed for comfort next, and buy precious metals and hard assets for portfolio insurance.
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 01:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47067)
Also...
Dry in the Northwest -- water levels low for hydroelectric and they are using more NOW because of California's problems.

California actually uses more energy in the summer months...those tesitifying are all calling for real problems this summer.

New York City going to be "tight" this summer also.

Fun, fun.
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 01:28:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47068)
Jeesh...
This testimony from the west about the energy situation is depressing! Glad I live up here in NH (How long can I hide?!)

All the same, think I'll shut off the computer & tv, save some watts and catch some zzzzzz's

L.
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 01:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47069)
Natural-Gas Producers Report: A Continuing Decline in Output
http://public.wsj.com/sn/y/SB980901258203987394.html
By Chip Cummins
Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
As high natural-gas prices drive up home-heating and other bills, producers of the fuel are reporting that production continues to decline, suggesting that today's high prices won't be falling significantly anytime soon. About 20 large natural-gas producers, accounting for close to 40% of domestic production, have so far reported fourth-quarter results. The result: Natural-gas production in the quarter was down 0.8% from the third quarter and off 3.7% from the fourth quarter of 1999, according to figures compiled by Lehman Brothers. Analysts, surprised by the trend, say gas production will need to start growing for prices to return to more traditional levels.

Analysts had been expecting higher natural-gas production in the fourth quarter after record selling prices prompted increased drilling. For instance, Baker Hughes Inc., an oil-services company, says 879 rigs were actively drilling for natural gas last week, up 41% from the year-earlier week. "It is surprising because we had assumed that we would get some increases" in production, says Tom Driscoll, a Lehman analyst. Total numbers for fourth-quarter production won't be available for some time. BP Amoco PLC, the country's largest gas producer, doesn't report until next month. But a host of companies have so far reported flat or declining production growth, including Burlington Resources Inc., one of the largest independent gas producers, and Kerr-McGee Corp., another independent. All of them benefited as colder-than-normal temperatures in November and December helped drive up demand, sending natural-gas prices soaring above $9 per million British thermal units, sharply boosting fourth-quarter profits for many natural-gas producers. Tuesday, the New York Mercantile Exchange contract for delivery of natural gas in March was trading at $6.097 per million BTUs, almost three times the price of the comparable contract early last year.

In most cases, high gas prices have been passed on to residential and industrial users. Households across the nation have seen natural-gas bills more than double. Unable to operate profitably, aluminum and chemical makers have shuttered plants. In California, utilities and other generators say high natural-gas prices -- used increasingly to power electricity plants -- have contributed significantly to the state's energy crisis. A number of factors have conspired to keep production from growing, industry executives and analysts say. Because natural gas is difficult to ship, most gas used in the country is produced here or piped from Canada. During the past few years, producers have used technological advances to squeeze more gas out of older fields in the U.S., Canada and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. But such new technologies have reached their limits in many cases, and those older fields are being emptied of reserves more rapidly than companies can find new deposits of natural gas. "Technology was winning for a while, but now Mother Earth is winning," Lehman's Mr. Driscoll says.

At the same time, oil and gas companies complain that federal restrictions have kept them from exploring promising new acreage, and they are now clamoring for more access from the Bush administration. "We're fighting depletion of wells, and we're fighting lack of access," says John Sharp, vice president for federal and state affairs at the Natural Gas Supply Association, an industry lobby group. Some companies have bucked the trend. Devon Energy Corp., Oklahoma City, said Tuesday that its domestic gas production grew 9% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Net income was $306.9 million, or $2.27 a diluted share, up sharply from $74.9 million, or 57 cents a share. Revenue was $850.1 million, up 68% from $505.2 million.


Black Blade: NG prices have come off their highs recently as weather forecasts are for warmer weather. There have been lower withdrawal rates (probably conservation by consumers due to high prices). Storage is at all time lows and yet more NG-fired power generation plants are coming on line. Add to this that there is no significant new exploration � probably because there aren't enough drill rigs. This just the beginning and it will get Very Ugly.

Y2K was never like this ;-)
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 01:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47070)
An Engineer's Views: Ongoing Y2K Problems
http://www.hfni.gsehd.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon/Black Blade: Found this on downstreamventures discussion site. Thanks to a poster with the handle :AABBCC for digging this up.

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=2358.topic

Paula Gordon is a university professor (George Washington University) who has an ongoing research project concerning the effects of Y2K on Embedded Systems. She has posted some new information she has acquired lately that has interesting implications concerning the current energy problem we seem to be having.

Link to Paula Gordons site:
www.hfni.gsehd.gwu.edu/~y...le/gordon/

******************

An Engineer's Views: Ongoing Y2K Problems
By Paula Gordon 1/30/01

1/30/2001 Summary of an Engineer's Observations Regarding the Status of Ongoing Y2K-Related Embedded Systems and Complex Integrated Systems Problems

Preface:

I am attaching a summary of observations that I have drafted. The summary is based on observations that an engineer has shared with me. I am sharing these summarized observations for several reasons:

1) because of the relative absence of first hand accounts concerning what is actually going on regarding Y2K-related embedded systems and complex integrated systems problems;

2) because I have heard some similar off the record accounts from other engineers; and

3) because I feel that right now such off the record observations provide the best information and roadmap to further inquiry that we have.

Perhaps, those who are in a position to do so, will come forward, at least off the record, and help enlighten the public and those in positions of public and private sector trust and responsibility concerning the significant role that Y2K-related embedded systems and complex integrated systems problems are having in a variety of sectors, including the energy sector.

*********************

During the last week of January 2001, I received some information from a seasoned engineer who has been working "on the frontlines". The individual shared information concerning the many Y2K-related problems that he is continuing to see. (I have not met the engineer in person and do not know his or her real name and will refer to "him" as "he" in this summary.)

Also, rather than quote the individual directly, I am summarizing most of the information that he shared with me.

~ Several of the companies that he has worked with have had extremely serious data corruption problems. After much effort and temporary successes in dealing with these problems, the data becomes corrupted again.

~ With respect to the grid, he feels certain that the energy crisis will become increasingly apparent this summer. In his view there have been large numbers of failures involving energy systems. In these instances, he says that workarounds are often not possible. He notes that turning clocks back and going to manual have resulted in some cascading failures and time delays.

~ He notes increasing reports of problems with dirty power and low power and instances of involving the total failure of electrical equipment.

~ He also talks about what he feels is a direct correlation between solar storms and hardware failures.

~ He says that those working "on the frontlines" are being threatened with the loss of their jobs if they speak up about what they know.

~ I had told him that it was my sense that people at the top of private sector organizations do not seem to comprehend the extent of their Y2K-related embedded systems and complex integrated system problems. He said that of the persons he comes across, less than 20% of those who work with complex systems understand the systems and keep up with changes and that only a small percent is able to address problems effectively. The others don't really understand what is going wrong with their systems.

~ I asked him how large a role he thought Y2K-related embedded systems and complex integrated systems problems were currently playing in the evolving energy crisis. He said that he estimated that 70% of the failures involving the energy sector, and communications (among others) are directly the result of Y2K. He estimated that 20% of the failures could be due to human error on the part of those trying to deal with the problems. He said that those individuals often only have enough ability to deal with normal activities and that they have insufficient understanding to deal with anything that departs from the norm. He estimates that the other 10% of the problems is owing to normal hardware failure, user problems, and environmental issues.

~ He said that manual override and date resetting have been used when automated production systems and SCADA systems have failed. He said that it is not uncommon when he is replacing a system to be told by the client that he has to put in an old date or the application will not run. He added that many of these applications are old and that large networks over the past decade can be composed of a mix of upgrades, networks, and applications that are out of sync. Owing to these problems, he estimates that the country is running at 65% to 70% of last year's production rates on the average.

~ I asked him about problems in all of the high hazard sectors: oil rigs, refineries, oil and gas pipe lines, nuclear power plants, nuclear reactors, chemical plants, hazardous material facilities and sites, electric power plants, water purification plants, waste treatment plants, trains, planes. He responded that most of these have fixed what they could; fixed the rest on failure when possible; or, if the expertise is missing, attempted to make the failing system work manually. In situations where a system is run 24 by 7 and where there is an apparent problem, he says that there is only a narrow window of time during which the system can be analyzed and repaired. Sometimes when there is an apparent problem, but where no hard errors have occurred, he has been asked to replace hardware. When new hardware does not fix the problem, going to partial manual override becomes the only remaining option. He also noted that in many networked environments, date/time is sent in packets and when there are systems broadcasting an old date along with current dates, the data can be corrupted or miscalculated.

~ He said that he has not found anyone who is willing to talk about what is happening, even off the record. He said that some of his more aware customers are asking him what he is seeing and asking questions about the power crisis. He thinks that they are beginning to catch on.

~ I asked him if he knew of any cases involving high hazard sectors where the problems are being publicly recognized AND linked to Y2K? He said that Y2K is never mentioned in explanations as a cause of problems. Instead "silly" explanations are offered and most people take these explanations as fact.

~ I asked him what his prognosis was for nuclear power plants. He said that he was told prior to the rollover by someone in a position to know that in instances that his information source knew about, clocks were turned back where there was a possibility of potential problems and failures. He said that this only works for a time as the interconnectness of these system runs too fast for individuals to keep them going. In his view, the production task has become very costly negating most, if not all profit. In addition mechanical/electronic failures are extremely costly. He said that he felt that many nuclear power plants were running well below capacity due to the failures and owing to manual operations. He feels that they do not seem to be making much progress getting back to normal and that in the end those plants will become too expensive to run.

~ I said that I have been hearing about shortages in the pharmaceutical industry and ask him if he thought this might be related to problems with manufacturing processes. He said that there are manufacturing problems and that too many bugs have slowed manufacturing processes. He added that there is a major shortage of computer components and that the parts that are available are often parts that have been put back in stock even though they do not work. He said he has found the same to be the case when it comes to other technology companies and parts vendors.

~ Regarding health care system problems, he said that they are having all kinds of issues, including claims that are getting rejected for no valid reason, accounts that are coming up blank, or billing where charges and services are being doubled.

~ Regarding air travel, he said that air travel is having its share of Y2K issues. He also feels that solar storms are having an impact on air travel and that Y2K coupled with solar storms have triggered many of the problems that have been occurring.

~ I asked him what he thought about the possibility that manhole cover explosions might be caused by irregularities in transmission. He said that the manhole issue is a very interesting one and that he feels that it is due to electrical power cables overheating and creating a gas that results in an explosion. He thinks that this is probably due to the use of manual power overrides.

~ He said that every time there are major solar flares, he notes an increase in CPU, memory and disk drive failures. He notes that the incidence of failing modules is very high owing to their density, a factor that makes them more sensitive to the effects of solar storms.

~ I asked him if he knew of any cases where problems involving data degradation were being publicly recognized AND linked to Y2K. He said that not one company is going public. The usual explanation is that the company is having "computer problems" and that "the system is new."


Black Blade: I can't vouch for the veracity of everything in this synopsis, however, I have no reason to doubt it either. I occasionally hear from friends about Y2K glitches in the "business", and I have experienced some minor "inconveniences" myself. So who knows?
justamereBear
(02/01/2001; 01:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47071)
Black Blade

Just a note of thanks for all the work you have put into your postings here.

Night after night I come to read what you have said. Unfortunately, when one agrees, one tends not to be as vocal as when one differs. For some reason, most people can not see a large problem in hydrocarbons. I have tried and tried to explain that this problem, in the short run is every bit as bad as the financial crisis facing us, since at a minimum it will knock us back a century. In the long run, for humanity, it is catastrophic. All of our recent advances, with the possible exception of certain biochem, have been built on the back of energy. But even there, a good deal of practical work, say the engineering of square tomatoes, grown in a hothouse, is done.

In our "just in time" society, when there is little energy to get milk into our cities, what will happen to our society? The ramifications are endless, and very ominous.

It is an unfortunate aspect of humanity that they do not seem to be willing to start bailing until their a$$es are wet. Since I have been attending this forum, I saw your lone voice, crying in the wilderness. Only when the hole in the boat was made direct and real, by the Upper Kingdom of Grasshoppers of Kalifornia, did a FEW start to take notice. But even now, it is not a problem for humanity, just a local problem.

Someday, I will shake your hand sir. In the meantime,
Be well

j'Bear

Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 02:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47072)
RE: justamereBear - Thank You
Thank you for your kind words friend. I think a lot of thanks goes to our host MK and Randy (in the tower) for providing this forum. It was ANOTHER, FOA, and MK that brought this into the light some time ago. I was this train wreck in progress some time ago, yet I too blew it off as not that important, even though I'm in the "business" as it were. I began to look deeper into this more when some were concerned about the approach of Y2K (still a couple of years off). The problem I saw was that it wasn't so much a lack of oil or lack of hydrocarbons, but rather man's addiction to the "cheap" hydrocarbons that fueled the economy. These hydrocarbons were not going to be "cheap" any longer. The "Super-Giants" were all discovered and in various rates of decline. In fact no "Super-Giant" had been discovered in over 30 years! Even large fields such as that in the Baku region in the Caspian Sea were depleting fast, and were of lower quality high sulfur (sour crude) oil and more difficult to process. I also noticed that refining capacity had reached its limits, as no company wanted the environmental liability. I also began to take notice of lower drilling activity domestically (in the US) for NG and saw that exploration and production activity had dropped to almost nothing. In fact drill rig manufacturers went out of business and rigs sent to the scrap heaps. It became apparent a few years ago that almost every new power plant that was being planned and built was NG-fired, yet no rigs, and declining production capacity. This was untenable and we were obviously headed for a collision of serious demand amid a severe supply crunch. I was not necessarily alone as a few others in the science community also warned of what has now come upon us. It was a simple matter of connecting the dots. The picture that emerged was frightening. When I tied this all together I saw that the events of the past were about to repeat. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis whether imposed by man (i.e. Arab oil embargo), or by simple supply and demand dynamics. We haven't learned a thing, and we are about to repeat are mistakes, this time however, we can easily import ourselves out of this mess. Anyway, you see I can get long in my responses and so again I thank you and the others on the forum you have an interest in how these events will play out not only for our way of life, but also for the preparations that we as individuals can make such as buying food, shelter, get out of debt, buy PMs as portfolio insurance, etc. Again, Thank You.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 02:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47073)
Gold Up - US Dollar Down! Can it Last?
Gold is perking up +$1.70 this morning. Think that we will be back to normal with the typical NY open bashing? I hope not, but that was the norm and it was getting ridiculous as it was so obvious that something or some one was working feverishly to cap any rise in the POG. And WOW! The Euro is coming alive, up a whole cent at $94.43, while the USD index is wallowing below 110. Is something new in the air this morning? Time will tell. In fact all major currencies are higher. I may even have to stop referring to the pound as the slider, and the Aussie/Kiwi dollars as peso before long. ;-)
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 03:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47074)
RE: Canuck
http://www.bigtexas.com/dmc/index.htmlHey Canuck,

I had a photographer take a photo of my car. I love my car so much that I keep it on display at a bank. What say you that I swing by in my gold car and we go out on the town? You buy the gas. I have to go to the bank to get my car out though, a garage just won't do. ;-)
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 03:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47075)
Of Gold Cars, etc.
http://www.mintek.co.za/catgold/No gold car would be complete without a gold catalytic converter either. Check out the link.
Topaz
(02/01/2001; 03:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47076)
Black Blade
http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/business.pat,business/377518d9.131,.htmlHi BB,
Congratulations my boy! The proud owner of a magnificent "Coq"......you should be so lucky! .
The "talk" is Fuel-cell tech, (see link) too little too late it seems as your ominous rumblings indicate things are just beginning to get desperate - good (early) call.

Gold is trucking along nicely at present, you reckon a new hand on the Tiller could halt the shenannigans in Gold/Silver?
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 03:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47077)
NYMEX Raises Margins on Copper! Gold and Silver Soon to Follow?
A lesson to the unintiated futures player.....By Darcy Keith, BridgeNews New York--Jan. 31--COMEX Mar copper futures settled up 45 points at 84.55 cents per pound after hitting a one-week high of 85.00c. Copper saw trade and merchant buying Wednesday, with some fund selling also a feature. The focus of the session was a surprise hefty increase in margins announced by the exchange, and this led to some long liquidation on the close.

Margins will be increased on the Feb and Mar 2001 copper futures contracts as of the close of business on Feb. 2 and 9. At the close of business on Feb. 9, clearing member margins will be increased to $5,000 from $3,000, member margins will be increased to $5,500 from $3,300, and customer margins will be increased to $6,750 from $4,050. At the close of business on Feb. 2, clearing member margins will be increased to $3,000 from $1,000, member margins will be increased to $3,300 from $1,100, and customer margins will be increased to $4,050 from $1,350. The steep increases in margins left copper players scratching their heads, wondering why such a move when copper has been locked into a range of 80c to 86c for such a long time. "We're not sure why. These are huge numbers," commented Fred Demler, minerals economist with E.D.&F. Man. Demler suggested that perhaps there are concerns that the severe backwardation in aluminum could be repeated in the copper market and the exchange is trying to ease any emerging nearby tightness. "Maybe COMEX knows something the rest of the market does not," Demler said. One floor broker said some positions may be getting "a little out of hand," and the COMEX is trying to flush out some long positions. "The warehouses look pretty thin on volumes, and there are more long positions out there," he said. "This is really just forcing an early rollover. People are now getting out of Mars and into Mays and some are even going into Jlys," the broker said. He noted that the margin changes don't come into effect until Feb. 2, some traders still have some time to get out of positions. The broker added that larger funds won't be affected by the margin increases, and many smaller traders are trading spreads more than outrights in recent sessions. A spokeswoman for the exchange would not comment as to why the margins were increased. "Margins are evaluated on a daily basis and we set them as appropriate," she said. Aside from the margin announcement, activity in the copper pit was relatively uneventful, with more range-trading seen. After the COMEX market close, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point for the second time in a month. And in an accompanying statement that raised hopes for more rate cuts, the central bank said more weakness remains the biggest threat for the economy. LME copper warehouse stocks Wednesday dropped 1,500 tonnes to 350,075 tonnes, while COMEX inventories continued to increase, rising by 636 short tons Tuesday to 79,091 tons.


Black Blade: First palladium default on the NYMEX, and now a copper default! Jim Bob Moffet, CEO of Freeport McMoran (FCX) said in an interview on CNBC last week that there was only 3 weeks supply of physical copper available on the market. This could be interesting and now the NYMEX defaults! Huge margin increases are defaults in my book. This is Wall Streets way of saying we don't have it, the cupboard is bare � so there! Another way to view this � they have declared "Force Majuere!" "We can't Deliver!" As ANOTHER said one time, "paper will burn." You got physical or you don't � and when it comes to the NYMEX they win all the time � no matter what. Let the games begin!
DaveC
(02/01/2001; 03:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47078)
Black Blade
Congrats and thank you for the posts. Your morning energy updates are why I now stop here every day. Mostly for your comments at the end.

Good hunting.
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 03:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47079)
RE: Topaz
Topaz,

The possibilities are endless, and I never cease to be amazed with new technology. Can you imagine? Gold catalytic converters because gold is cheaper � truly bizarre. I have mentioned before that fuel-cell tech is a ways off yet as there are no set standards and no infrastructure to distribute hydrogen on a large scale. It is a point in some circles that much of the hydrogen of choice for use in many of the planned fuel-cells is supposed to be NG. Current NG supply woes could be a problem. Hey, wait a minute � The Hindenburg was a big "Fuel-Cell" ;-)
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 03:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47080)
Lemmings: Why markets cycle
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=107575Worth a click.

Tanabear:
"Lemmings are possessed by the urge to follow in search of food. (Just like people) Since they do have an ability to swim, albeit limited, when they come to a river or lake they'll swim across it
and continue their migration in search of ever more food. and it takes a lot to feed 20,000,000 Lemmings. THAT�S a lot of PLAYERS .

"Then when they reach another small lake or river they will repeat the process. This will go on for several lakes or rivers and, I suspicion they come to believe that they are quite good at swimming. Then, quite unfortunately for the Lemmings, they finally reach the ocean..."
DaveC
(02/01/2001; 04:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47081)
More Mayoffs
Deutche Bank 2,600 (3%)

Corvis of UK 6,050 (wonder if those Brits understand that humor?)

Another good quote:
"They are breaking the news slowly to lessen the panic. Greenspan wants the public to believe that we can go from 5.5% GDP growth to exactly zero without going negative....hard landing, soft landing?....I call that an impossible landing...has anyone tried landing an F-16 in the Rose garden of the White House just to check out what Greenspan is trying to tell us??!!

Key price for April Gold Futures 271.20

Topaz
(02/01/2001; 04:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47082)
BB: DaveC
BB,Imagine the friction losses when running a 24K plated de-Lorian at (say) 120mph - I'd give it 1/2 an hour and she'd be back to metal.....and the c/c's ......they're dreamin!
Dave, did you see the Dow/I-rate correlation chart I posted the other nite?
Canuck
(02/01/2001; 04:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47083)
B.B.
....we'll stop by your buddy's veggie garden.....make a day of it!!!!
Canuck
(02/01/2001; 04:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47084)
@ BB , All
http://webevents.broadcast.com/accutel/jonesheward/Check out 'Don's latest call'.

Excellent commentary on the CA electricity issues.

"...demand for electricity is up 8-fold since 1995...."

Canuck.
Canuck
(02/01/2001; 05:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47085)
@ BB
Interesting post on Y2K.

I'm in the 'voice' world. After the rollover we 'lost' 3 voicemail systems, strictly timing/scheduling problems.

Earlier this week our office got a call from a client; can't set the time on their PBX. The manufacturor had told us of potential problems with the 2001 rollover not the 2000
roll.

Y2K is/was real, I saw it with the (small) 'standalone' systems that I work with. I agree with you, I "have no reason to doubt it either"; who knows?

I get really frustrated with people who completely dismiss the Y2K event.
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 06:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47086)
Calif. Assembly Rejects Power Bill - "Turn Out the Lights, the Party's Over..."
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010201/us/power_woes_179.html
By JENNIFER COLEMAN, Associated Press Writer

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - The Assembly early Thursday narrowly rejected a $10 billion plan to ease California's electricity crisis by letting the state buy power on behalf of two cash-starved utilities. The bill's supporters, mostly Democrats, planned to take another vote later, hoping to win over Republican opponents in the meantime. California's two largest utilities, forced by the state's 1996 deregulation law to sell their power plants, say they've been pushed $12.7 billion in debt by soaring wholesale prices. That same law blocks them from recovering the higher costs from their customers. The measure, approved a day earlier by the Senate, would have let the state sign long-term contracts to buy power and sell it to the customers of Southern California Edison (news - web sites) and Pacific Gas and Electric Co. The two together serve nearly 9 million residential and business ratepayers. The Assembly's 51-28 vote was three short of the two-thirds needed to send it to the governor.

Several Republican lawmakers took issue with a provision in the legislation that would let the state Public Utilities Commission (news - web sites) raise electricity rates to repay the state for its power purchases. To encourage conservation, residential customers who use 30 percent more energy than a baseline specified by regional climate and energy use would be punished with higher rates. ``It is clear this will result in a rate increase,'' Republican Assemblyman Rod Pacheco said. ``We are not voting for a rate increase.'' The Senate approved the proposal 27-8 Wednesday, and Assembly leaders had hoped to send it to Gov. Gray Davis by midnight. The governor had sent lawmakers a letter urging them to back the bill and promising to sign it.

The state has spent more than $400 million since mid-January on costly short-term power-buying on behalf of Edison and PG&E, both denied credit by suppliers. The legislation lets the state spend up to $500 million buying more electricity on the expensive spot market, while reaching cheaper long-term deals with wholesalers for up to a decade.
``The critical point that I want to make tonight, is like it or not, we're in the power business,'' Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Hertzberg said.

More than a dozen consumer activists rallied outside the governor's office Wednesday to protest what they called a taxpayer-financed bailout. Two were arrested for obstructing police. ``These are multibillion-dollar companies that have the ability to bail themselves out without our help,'' said Medea Benjamin of San Francisco, one of the protesters arrested. Some of the same California lawmakers who backed deregulation five years ago voted to put the state in the business of buying power to keep electricity flowing. ``This is a measure I undoubtedly hate as much as anyone on this floor, but it is far less odious than to do nothing,'' said Sen. Debra Bowen, a Democrat who backed the deregulation law as an assemblywoman.

California's energy problems - driven by high wholesale prices, high demand and a tight supply - are expected to persist through the summer. The long-term buying bill, funded through $10 billion in revenue bonds, is part of a larger fix being orchestrated by lawmakers, including proposals for speedier power plant construction. Another measure in the works would let the state issue revenue bonds to help the utilities pay off their debts. It would be paid back by Edison and PG&E customers and through utility stock options it could sell as their value - now in the basement - rebounded.

The Legislature's work came as the state faced its 17th straight day in a Stage 3 power alert with reserves threatening to fall below 1.5 percent. The northern two-thirds of California had two days with rolling blackouts last month as electricity fell short. In San Francisco, the PUC approved a plan Wednesday to keep natural gas flowing to millions of PG&E customers. Suppliers had threatened to stop selling to the utility out of fear that it couldn't pay its bills. The order lets natural gas suppliers draw directly on the revenues PG&E collects from monthly gas bills from its customers. PG&E believes the guaranteed source of payment will keep suppliers interested.


Black Blade: "Turn out the lights - the party's over, It's time all good things end,�.." Bye-Bye Kalifornia! This about seals their fate now. Without a Fed bailout, their toast. The Kalifornia economy is done for! We should see a couple of Utes filing for bankruptcy soon. The Grasshoppers did themselves in. "And they danced, sang, and played all summer long�"
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 07:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47087)
Mr Gresham (and others) Lemmings etc.,
On animal traits in humans

Comments re human behaviour and Lemmings, reminds me of other less desirable traits which so many of us appear to retain from, according to Darwin, our animal origins, ones which have now become embedded in well know clich�s - Sticking one's head in the sand; Monkey see, monkey do; behave like sheep.......and I am sure you can add more.

Those of you who have read "Animal Farm" (A must read), will have observed how Orwell makes full use of the connection between basic animal traits, and that of humans by selecting common farm animals in an appropriate manner with which we could identify, in order to absorb the writer's message.

Orwell got his idea for his writings from watching a huge carthorse pulling a great load and being led by a man ( a fellow 'animal') between whom there could be no comparison, or challenge, in physical strength. Yet, here, this large and noble animal, had allowed itself to be humbled by, in comparison, so puny a creature.

There are certain people who have not only observed this condition, but use it with great effect to enhance their life, and elevate themselves above the masses who 'see but don't see'. I quote once again the words of a great teacher - There are none so blind as those with eyes yet cannot see.

I quote also the words expressed by one of 'the elite' (who shall remain nameless by me) who replied when challenged about how he had taken advantage of the naive - "People behave like sheep, it is their natural destiny, therefore, to be fleeced every so often".

And that just about sums up the philosophy of 'the manipulators'. If you don't see it, then you are not alone but in the company of the masses, and no doubt you would take the 'well trodden path' in life, the one worn down by many sheep.

Pandagold
Black Blade
(02/01/2001; 07:13:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47088)
Gold Higher
Gold had bounced over +$3.00, but was getting a bit "uppity" and had to be put in it's place. The usual NY splash down is back in effect. No manipulation? B.S.!
tedw
(02/01/2001; 07:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47089)
California power problems
http://www.usagold.com
Oh California.
Years ago when I left the state and went over the border,my middle finger involuntarily went up to bid a fond farewell.

The California Republicans are posturing.Rates are going up, period.The state is not going to turn out the lights and the consumers are going to be paying a lot more for electricity, either directly or thru hidden taxes.

Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 07:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 47090)
China and Gold

I shared with you all in a previous posting how, from an early age, I had a very strong feeling that my fortunes in life would be brought about by China, and gold. Now, I had not seen at the time how these two entities would, or could, correlate.

However, their grew within me, a strong affinity with both. I was especially pleased when I learned of the Chinese 'Panda' gold coin. Yet, I still did not see how this could affect my fortunes.

I have spent much time in China, Taiwan (and other parts of Asia), and I have spent a lot of time learning about the history of gold. Consequently, I am very tuned in and alert to what is taking place in both these areas.

As you know, or should do, China is opening up in many, hitherto, closed, or veiled areas. It is about to open up its gold market, and its exchange should be in Shanghai.

This was originally scheduled for last year, but was postponed until this. A definite date has not yet been fixed. Typical of the Chinese way of doing things, they will not be rushed but like to get the 'infrastructure' in place first, which she is doing.

I believe that China will play a huge part in the promotion of gold in all its forms, I include the following, and will present other material, or draw your attention to it as it comes available.

Be alert - gold will have its day, as every dog knows (ah, another animal clich�)



Venture to boost gold's mainland popularity
Source: South China Morning Post
Publication date: 2001-02-01


Hang Fung Gold Technology has teamed up with state-owned China National Gold Corp (CNGC) to promote the gold industry in the mainland.
Under the agreement, the two companies will develop a 7.29- hectare cultural and entertainment centre in Beijing, with the aim of enhancing the popularity of gold products.

CNGC will have a 51 per cent stake in the venture, while Hong Kong- listed Hang Fung will hold the remaining 49 per cent.

The two parties will also join in manufacturing and selling gold products for the mainland market.

The announcement came three days after Hang Fung, a gold and silver jewellery manufacturer and retailer, set up a HK$200 million showroom and museum in Hong Kong.

Hang Fung chairman Lam Sai-wing said the partnership would help the development of the gold industry on the eve of China's expected entry into the World Trade Organisation.

"The co-operation with CNGC will enable us to grasp the vast business opportunities that arise from China's WTO entry," he said.

"We also aim at establishing standard manufacturing regulations with gold producers on the mainland."

Mr Lam said Hang Fung would invest HK$30 million to HK$40 million in the first phase of the project. CNGC is understood to be contributing about the same amount.

Mr Lam said the proposed cultural centre in Beijing would house artefacts which reflected the historical development of the city.

"These objects will be inspired by different cultures and religions," he said.

CNGC deputy general manager Xu Wenan said the partnership would promote innovation in the gold industry in China, and increase sales both at home and abroad. He was optimistic that China's imminent WTO entry would create opportunities for mainland producers.

"The opening up of the mainland market will bring more opportunities," said Mr Xu.

"There will be some pressure [from foreign competitors] but we believe this will be a driving force for us to improve the quality of corporate management."

CNGC, a state-owned corporation specialising in gold production, has nine subordinated provincial companies in China. It has an annual production capacity of 500,000 taels of gold, representing more than 10 per cent of the country's production. Mr Xu said the company's total assets amounted to seven billion yuan (about HK$6.5 billion).

Information from the World Gold Council shows that China's gold consumption in the first half of last year stood at 102.5 tonnes, making it the fourth-largest market behind India, the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Publication date: 2001-02-01
� 2000, YellowBrix, Inc.
rc
(02/01/2001; 07:43:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47091)
So why all the fuss?
@DaveCI tried twice to explain you why I thought Pandagold was right and you come back telling we were insulting your intelligence. Instead of explaining why you keep growling about our lack of respect for your intelligence. It becomes a little tiring.

You end up saying " Pandagold has not said anything which is not already known by many people I talk with daily " So why all the fuss?

This said, I agree with you about Waco and Ruby ridge. May I add Gordon Kahl who has been shot in cold blood and whose son is in jail for a crime he did not commit? And there are many more. Yes! Clinton is responsible but he is the screen behind which others are pulling the strings.
JMB
(02/01/2001; 07:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47092)
Goldman Sachs

They did it again...they stopped 95 Gold contracts today...747 yesterday.

R POWELL: Maybe they agree with you, "Gold is like tax deductions. You can't have enough".


Journeyman
(02/01/2001; 07:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47093)
Pandagold @DaveC, rc, Pandagold

Ah, Pandagold had (has?) what to some would be an irritating habit of talking down to folks here at USA gold. It's my guess that that's the source of DaveC's posts.

ALSO, Panda, you might want to lose that "attitude" - - - else your good message will not get through to many who need to hear it because they will subliminally take a dislike to your ID and simply won't read you.

Regards,
Journeyman
The Hoople
(02/01/2001; 08:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47094)
Black Blade , Canuck
I would like to concur that Y2k was swept under the rug. I have avoided the topic with friends because you might as well have announced an Amway party for the looks of incredulity you get. Billions of embedded chips and sophisticated systems and miraculously no problems? No way. In my industry (lumber) I know several crash and burn business failures due to computers. One company that imported products lost all record of cargo containers, and orders. they were triple shipping orders yet only generating one invoice. They were so hopeless they finally resorted to calling and saying "pay what you think you owe". They're bankrupt now. Another very large window manufacturer bought out their distribution partners because it jeopordized their existance to not upgrade computers and the distributors were clueless. It is highly unusual gas, natural gas , oil and other entities have been declining in production for a year yet have no credible explanations. I read somewhwere there were more refinery explosions in 1999- 2000 than previous decade combined. I will not belabour the point but I have no regrets for my Y2k preparation. In fact, many were excellent investments. I landed 2,000 gal. of gas and propane at 88 cents, that alone paid for the generator. There is a website
still active that reports Y2k sightings, they leave it open forum to confirm, deny or dispute. It is greenspun.com ,called the grassroots information coordination center (GIC)
It is worth the visit. Many thanks to all the people here at the forum for the time and effort to promote rational thought. We are all the better for it I hope.









Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 08:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47095)
The 'true' native American's persective on politicians, and their promises


When listening to, or reproducing within this forum, the pontificating of politicians, and those who would shape our future, by election, or otherwise, remember the noble Indian's comment after he had been shafted following promises on so many occasions - "Paleface speak with fork tongue".

They were ever so shrewd in their observations, yet much maligned, and believed of a lesser breed.

Do you know, scalping their enemies, I have read, was not part of their culture until the white man, encouraged by bounty, taught them the practice.

They gave up 'scalping' many moons ago, some of us,however, carried on, even to this day.
CoBra(too)
(02/01/2001; 08:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47096)
On Pandas -
When the Chinese started to mint the Panda (best guess without looking it up) it was in the early 80's, they've stressed to limit the annual edition to 200k ounces. In addition they've minted sets consisting of a 1oz, 1/2oz,1/4 oz and 1/10oz Panda coin. These sets quickly became a boon for numismatic collectors, as the "avers" changed with the # of Pandas each year.
As all of that may have changed, I recall selling 2 of my 3 sets at prices triple to the gold content to my pm trader then. In the meantime I'm happy to have found another pm trader, with intrinsic knowledge of the overall gold market and detailed knowledge of bullion and coins be they bullion or numismatic. Guess who? - cb2
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 08:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47097)
Journeyman

Whether you see anyone talking down, or talking up, depends on where YOU are standing. You are, as anyone else, free to skip over anything I contribute if you find it not to your taste, or of merit.

You ( not personally) do not insult me by silence. Only blasting off without proper readng, gets one a little annoyed. I see that is done, by some, not only to my postings, but to others. There is a way to say - I don't agree, that offends no one.

I say again, 'an open book is useless without an open mind'.

I read much I don't agree with, or should I say I perhaps don't agree with at the time, but I sometimes find later
that it had much merit. This, I find is how the path to wisdom is gained ( a journey that never ends), being ready to twist and turn as does the road.
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 08:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47098)
Before anyone jumps in


There are, I know, a lot of sharp wits out there among you. So, before anyone jumps in on that last posting - all roads are not Roman and straight.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/01/2001; 08:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47099)
panda"old",....my, my, my
Will you ever grow weary of baiting? Your recent posts have been decidedly anti USA, and have elicited the response you crave. Your envy of the USA is apparent, and well justified, since twice in the last century you would have been a German subject, had it not been for Lady Liberty extending her skirt over the UK. Ever the adolescent, you assert your independence/insolence while still under Lady Liberty's (military) skirt. Enjoy it while you can, for when you willfully jump to the EU, the umbilical cord will be severed. Permanently.

Freedom gained is never freedom secured.

beesting
(02/01/2001; 09:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47100)
To Sir Shifty.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010201/gold_field.htmlSir, here is the link to Gold Fields Ltd. most recent semi-annual report. Quite impressive to me considering the depressed POG, they even declare a small dividend.Annual production about 4 million ounces.Price is up so far today on heavy volume.

Not posted for solicitation purposes....beesting.
Journeyman
(02/01/2001; 09:35:19 MDT - Msg ID: 47101)
Ominous, manipulation, or both? @ALL

- Warren Rudman and Gary Hart appeared on "Hard Ball" with Chris Matthews claiming US was
vulnerable to terrorist attacks on US soil by nukes and chemical/biological weapons and
that further, defense efforts should be "coordinated" by FEMA. -FOX NEWS CHANNEL, Jan. 31, 2001.

Regards,
Journeyman
SHIFTY
(02/01/2001; 09:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47102)
beesting / Goldfields Ltd.
beesting : They were to have a Live conference Call Audio Webcast on 1 February at 17:00 Johannesburg time (10:00 a.m. North American EST).
I missed it .

$hifty
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 09:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47103)
Stock, lies and Tickertape
Oh this vitriolic from some. And where my friend do you think you would be today if, as one American said when the rest of Europe had fallen and England stood alone, England had had 'her neck rung like a chicken.'

We stood alone, against a very well equipped and formidable enemy, an enemy from which the English stock originates and had been our 'blood brothers' throughout history (even helping to turn the day, by their timely arrival to the field at Waterloo) until certain forces in this world decided to break up the relationship, in the early nineteen hundreds, for their own ends. You know � 'Divide and conquer',or the parable of the bundle of sticks.

If England had folded, and could so easily have done when watching our cities destroyed, civilians killed, and knowing what was against us, where do you think America would have been today? America had no rocket technology until it was gleaned from Von Braun and co.

Thank God you were spared those silent rockets landing on your soil. And how long would it have been before they had perfected a nuclear warhead? They were well on the way. England would have made a lovely aircraft carrier from which to launch them.

So thank your lucky stars we held out. I have mentioned before it is GOLD what wins wars. The powerful Roman army collapsed when Rome ran out of gold. So much Roman money is unearthed in Britain that, unless it is gold, it is almost worthless. Inflation made it such that people lost, or buried it, and didn't even bother to find it.

It was GOLD which won the last war, and not the US government's gold. But that's another story and I don't wish to get involved in emotional and lengthy arguments on that score. So, I accept any comment that may rush to your mind expressing disagreement, to save you the need of voicing it.

Now has to 'envy.' I love America and the ordinary American people, but not those that have your country in such a tight grip. Ones who have destroyed over time, the principles on which that nation was founded.

I also love all other countries, I know personally, and the ordinary people of that country. If you had truly read my postings you would have seen that.

I will never forget the surprised look on the face of the US consular official at the embassy in London when I turned in my 'green card.' He said, this could only happen in England.

I have nothing to envy in America, or any other country, (except perhaps weather sometimes), but there is much I admire out there. We can all learn so much from each other.
If we will stop echoing Government and Hollywood brainwashing.
PH in LA
(02/01/2001; 10:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47104)
Keeping Score in Panda Versus DC: Panda 1, DC 0

Journeyman (2/1/2001; 7:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 47093)
"...else your good message will not get through to many who need to hear it because they will subliminally take a dislike to your ID and simply won't read you."

Thanks, J-man, for your good advice to PandaGold.

Unfortunately, from my point of view, you address it to the wrong party. Mr. D.C. has been off the "must read" list for some time, for exactly the reason you mention to Panda. His combative style and poorly-thought-out positions coupled with his taken-for-granted conventional postures (ie. anti-Clinton hash) make his offerings wasted reading for many of us. What saddens me is seeing an intelligent and obviously experienced thinker like Panda wasting his time trying to shine a light into a mind that is already made up and anxious to prove it. DaveC understands little and makes minimal effort to improve. Don't chastise Panda for attempting the impossible.
DaveC
(02/01/2001; 10:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47105)
PH in LA (2/1/2001; 10:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 47104)
Just like all of your posts during the election debacle, very constructive.

I remember during that time you were very combative with many posters here.

Then you left.

Now comes Panda with her arrogance and look what happens.

PH, mind your own business.

DaveC
(02/01/2001; 10:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47106)
Topaz - Thanks for the link
Excellent site. Looks like "risk", meaning the purchase of stocks, is back for a while, but it will never be as before.

Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 10:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 47107)
Make up your mind LA and DaveC
You are agreeing, and cuddling up, with each other, yet one is saying I have delivered anti- Clinton 'hash', and the other says I have been too kind, to him. How people can blind themselves with emotion.

You are in such mind to hit out, that you can't decide why.

There is much happening out there where we should be directing our focus. Like, for instance: -

Mainland takes steps to revamp gold trade, HONG KONG IMAIL
Source: WorldSources Online
Publication date: 2001-02-01


xfdws MAINLAND-TAKES-STEPS sked Emerging Markets Datafile
February 01, 2001

HONG KONG IMAIL

HONG KONG

ENGLISH

Mainland takes steps to revamp gold trade, HONG KONG IMAIL

Don Gasper

ASIA WorldSources, Inc. 209 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, S.E., 2nd Floor WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003 COPYRIGHT 2001 BY WORLDSOURCES, INC., A JOINT VENTURE OF FDCH, INC. AND WORLD TIMES, INC. NO PORTION OF THE MATERIALS CONTAINED HEREIN MAY BE USED IN ANY MEDIA WITHOUT ATTRIBUTION TO WORLDSOURCES, INC.

THE mainland yesterday moved closer to towards reorganizing its gold industry ahead of its impending accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Its monopoly international gold trader, China National Gold Corporation (CNGC), inked a letter of intent with local precious metals products manufacturer and exporter Hang Fung Gold Technology (0870) to establish a comprehensive gold cultural, tourist and entertainment center in Beijing.

At the center, which is situated on a 2700 hectare site belonging to CNGC at Yanjiao, in the eastern suburbs of to Beijing, the two parties will jointly manufacture, wholesale and retail gold products. They say it will help enhance Beijing's position in the sale of gold products and promote knowledge of such products to the general public. The joint venture, in which CNGC will hold a 51 per cent stake, is the result of feelers put out by the Hong Kong company via its executive director Bejamin Fok Chun-yue, who is well known on the mainland.

The mainland is the world's fourth largest gold producer, according to CNGC vice-general manager Xu Wenan, who said that it produced 175 million tons of gold last year.

It is also ``the world's third largest gold-consuming market with a turnover of over 80 billion yuan (HK$75.3 billion) in gold and jewelry products and a growth rate of 10 per cent per annum,'' said Winger Lam Sai Wing, chairman of Hang Fung Gold Technology.

Mr Xu, who doubles as a member of the State Gold Administration under the State Economic and Trade Commission, said that CNGC planned to set up a holding company and to list, hopefully during the second half of the year. He said that it would have at least 100 tons of gold as its assets.

Mr Xu said that CNGC's 88 per cent-owned subsidiary Zhongjin Gold, set up last year, would list on a domestic bourse in the near future. Set up in 1979, CNGC at present has 9 provincial or regional subsidiaries. It wholly owns, owns in part or has a controlling stake in more than 70 enterprises or other units and assets of more than 7 billion yuan, Mr Xu said.

According to Rao Guimin, managing director of Zhongjin Gold, CNGC is in charge of 1,200 gold mines. However, only one has an output of more than 10,000 tons of gold ore. The corporation produces over 10 per cent of all the gold in the entire country or about 500,000 liang (ounces) per year and has untapped gold reserves of 400 tons. At the same time it is the only enterprise approved by the State Council to lend or borrow gold on the international market. The mainland is currently laying the groundwork for deregulating the gold industry, CNGC executives said.

They confirmed that Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Shenzhen were all jostling to host a gold exchange.

According to Chen Han, head of the Research and Development Center of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the exchange will probably be set up during the first half of this year.

Copyright 2001 HONG KONG IMAIL all rights reserved as distributed by WorldSources, Inc.


Publication date: 2001-02-01
� 2000, YellowBrix, Inc.
Company MultiLinkTM
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Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 10:32:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47108)
Apologies

I regret the beginning of my last post, though the rest is what matters. I fell victim to what I condemn - reading a post too quickly before opening my mouth. I aopoligise to all my fellow knights.


I am getting so excited at waht is going on out there 'in the market'. Early days, but I have much patience.

Apologies, once again - to ALL
beesting
(02/01/2001; 10:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47109)
Barrick's annual report!
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/010201/barrick_go.htmlMy Take:
Barrick re-evaluated some Gold still in the ground holdings.
They subtracted $100 per ounce unmined Gold valuation from the previous value, to $300 per ounce, was $400 per ounce.
What does this do to the company?
It removes $766 million in assets from the companies previously stated assets, therefore lowering the total "percieved value" of the company.
Look for a lower credit rating soon!
I think I got this right, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks....beesting.
Journeyman
(02/01/2001; 11:02:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47110)
Re: Tension & tribulation @Pandagold, PH in LA, etc.

"Whether you see anyone talking down, or talking up, depends on where YOU are standing." -Pandagold msg#: 47097

Not necessarily. Quite often whether someone is seen as talking up or down has a great deal to do with which position that "someone" perceives him/her self talking FROM. This preceived position is quite often revealed in the language, and sometimes a condesending attitude, etc. quite separate and logically immaterial to the content.

Problem is, we human animals react first to emotional content, then later - - - if ever - - - to the logical content.

In the case of my previous post, specifically, "Ah, Pandagold had (has?) what to some would be an irritating habit of talking down to folks here at USA gold," this is my observation only. However, being aware of the dangers of subjectivity, I like to triangulate.

I have two logged points: My observations of your choice of language use and the attitude it implies, much more-so in the past than currently I think, and DaveC's reactions. I seem to recall a few other untoward hostile reactions to your posts, untoward at least in terms of content alone.

I could, as PH in LA suggests, be directing my comments to other posters perhaps, however you've got some good stuff and I don't think it's your intention to limit your audience unnecessarily.

Take it for what you perceive it to be worth.

Regards,
Journeyman
Journeyman
(02/01/2001; 11:23:41 MDT - Msg ID: 47111)
A point of personal bias @ALL

I find it helps unconfuse me if I distinguish between the people who live in a particular country - - - and the government that claims those people.

The people and the government, though commonly and purposely confused, are two very distinct and different groups with different motivations and different stakes, often opposing stakes when examined closely.

Confusing the two is akin to mistaking the shearer with the sheep he shears.

Regards,
Journeyman
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 11:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47112)
Panda's Pandas
Now now boys, behave yourselves. Guess it's just a feisty week all 'round.

Pandagold, you set up one of my favorite Churchill quotes!

"When I warned them that Britain would fight on alone, whatever they did, their Generals told their Prime Minister and his divided cabinet that in three weeks, England would have her neck wrung like a chicken - Some chicken! Some neck!" -- Speech made to the Canadian Parliament on December 30, 1941.

Hey, I got one of those Panda sets at straight ounce rate -- is it really special?

Maybe Bill Murphy will someday dig up a Fed meeting's minutes with one of Greenspan's accomplices saying something like "and with just the small commitment of $1 billion a year we can put a Collar on Gold indefinitely and make it look like a Junkyard Dog." And then Bill can retort: "Some dog! Some collar!"
Gandalf the White
(02/01/2001; 11:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47113)
Hello Pandagold !!
SIR -- you posted the following -- Pandagold (2/1/2001; 7:34:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 47090)
"China and Gold".
--
Could you please provide the link to these items in the appropiate LINK box, so that one may study the whole article. The Hobbits read MOST of your postings, some with "one eye closed", and others with "tongue-in-cheek".
<;-)
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 11:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47114)
Link to Churchill quotes
http://history1900s.about.com/homework/history1900s/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.winstonchurchill.org%2Fbonmots.htmForgot it in the last one. Enjoy.
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 11:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47115)
Quotes: "Equal Time" for Dubya
http://slate.msn.com/Features/bushisms/bushisms.aspNow here's a guy I can get behind! (No, not what you're thinking...)

"I am mindful not only of preserving executive powers for myself, but for predecessors as well."�Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2001

"My pro-life position is I believe there's life. It's not necessarily based in religion. I think there's a life there, therefore the notion of life, liberty and pursuit of happiness."�Quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle, Jan. 23, 2001

"Then I went for a run with the other dog and just walked. And I started thinking about a lot of things. I was able to�I can't remember what it was. Oh, the inaugural speech, started thinking through that."�Pre-inaugural interview with U.S. News & World Report, Jan. 22, 2001 issue

"Redefining the role of the United States from enablers to keep the peace to enablers to keep the peace from peacekeepers is going to be an assignment."�Interview with the New York Times, Jan. 14, 2001 (Thanks to Rachael Contorer.)

"The California crunch really is the result of not enough power-generating plants and then not enough power to power the power of generating plants."�Interview with the New York Times, Jan. 14, 2001"

And here I was afraid this show was going to be canceled after the election!

SEER
(02/01/2001; 11:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47116)
CONFISCATION AND THE TYRANNY OF THE MAJORITY
http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.htmlSEER: The Emergency Banking Act of 1933 started the ball rolling toward confiscation of gold. It was introduced and passed by congress on one day, March 9, 1933. The congress was made up of 153 republicans, 372 democrats and 6 independents. Let the following excerpt from the Congressional Record show what happens when panic, haste, hysteria and an arrogant majority destroy the expected atmosphere of calm deliberation and sober judgment. In just an hour-and-a half the measure was introduced, passed and sent to the Senate. Before the end of the day it was the law of the land!

Congressman Lundeen made the following remarks:

Mr. LUNDEEN. Mr. Speaker, today the Chief Executive sent to this House of Representatives a banking bill for immediate enactment. The author of this bill seems to be unknown. No one has told us who drafted the bill. There appears to be a printed copy at the speakers desk, but no printed copies are available for the House Members. The bill has been driven through the House with cyclonic speed after 40 minutes debate, 20 minutes for the minority and 20 minutes for the majority.

I have demanded a roll call, but have been unable to get the attention of the Chair. Others have done the same, notably Congressman SINCLAIR of North Dakota, and Congressman BILL LEMKE, of North Dakota, as well as some of our other Farmer Labor Members. Fifteen men were standing, demanding a roll call, but that number is not sufficient; we therefore have the spectacle of the great House of Representatives of the United States of America passing, after a 40- minute debate, a bill its Members never read and never saw, a bill whose author is unknown.

The great majority of the Members have been unable to get a minute's time to discuss this bill; we have been refused a roll call; and we have been refused recognition by the Chair. I do not mean to say that the Speaker of the House of Representatives intended to ignore us, but everything was in such a turmoil and there was so much excitement that we simply were not recognized.

I want to put myself on record against procedure of this kind and against the use of such methods in passing legislation affecting millions of lives and billions of dollars. It seems to me that under this bill thousands of small banks will be crushed and wiped out of existence, and that money and credit control will be still further concentrated in the hands of those who now hold the power.

It is safe to say that in normal times. after careful study of a printed copy and after careful debate and consideration, this bill would never have passed this House or any other House. Its passage could be accomplished only by rapid procedure, hurried and hectic debate, and a general rush for voting without roll call.

I believe in the House of Representatives. I believe in the power that was given us by the people. I believe that Congress is the greatest and most powerful body in America, and I believe that the people have vested in Congress their ultimate and final power in every great, vital question, and the Constitution bears me out in that.

I am suspicious of this railroading of bills through our House of Representatives, and I refuse to vote for a measure unseen and unknown.

I want the RECORD to show that I was, and am, against this bill and this method of procedure; and I believe no good will come out of it for America. We must not abdicate our power to exercise judgment. We must not allow ourselves to be swept off our feet by hysteria, and we must not let the power of the Executive paralyze our legislative action. If we do, it would be better for us to resign and go home-and save the people the salary they are paying us.

I look forward to that day when we shall read the bill we are considering, and see the author of the bill stand before the House and explain it, and then, after calm deliberation and sober judgment- after full and free debate-I hope to see sane and sensible legislation passed which will lift America out of this panic and disaster into which we were plunged by the World War.

SEER: What might this excerpt from the past tell us about the coming banking and monetary crisis? Will there be panic? Hysteria? Tyranny? Perhaps someone with a clear view of the future can tell us what to expect.
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 11:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47117)
By the way...
Look for earnings to plummet in electronics component manufacturers (technology!) for the first quarter.

The fourth quarter inventory problems did not hit them until December, so the earnings reports did not fully reflect the overcapacity/inventory issues.

Take it for what it's worth...let's just say I have first hand knowledge of the bomb that's going to hit.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 12:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47118)
It rarely gets bigger than this.
The Federal Reserve's System Account Manager had a busy New York morning today, adding $11.485 billion to the nation's banking system reserves in three separate open market operations.

The first deal was for a 28-day repurchase agreement totalling $2.0 billion.

That was followed shortly thereafter by an operation via seven-day RPs totalling $4.0 billion.

The Fed then rounded out this mountain of new money by including an overnight repo operation totalling $5.485 billion.

The fed funds market was not tight -- 5-9/16th percent -- at the time.
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 12:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 47119)
SEER
Interesting post. I was actually thinking about this "tyranny of the majority" last night. It is a problem the founding fathers were very concerned about - for good reason.
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 12:37:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47120)
Gandalph the White

The particular posting to which you refer is from an e-mail I receive daily from the South China Post with all the latest goings on in Asia,in general, and China in particular. The credit to this Newspaper is given at the top of the article. However I will try to ensure I give the link, or source, in my postings.

Thank you for your interest, and comment
slingshot
(02/01/2001; 12:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 47121)
Stock market and other little things.
Good afternoon,
First priority, CNBC, has stated AOL has a virus alert. I am not a computer type so I do not know what it affects.
The stock market is not so enthusiatic about the 1/2% cut. N.A.P.M. is 41.2pts. considered a contracting market. Newspaper headline, "Is economic boom coming to an end?"Gross domestic product weakest performance in five years. Combine this with all those layoffs and things are not looking too good in the U.S.A. How about paying a dollar for a small green bell pepper. Do you think Paxutarny
Phil, ( groundhog day), will have a better forcast both weather and market.
I purchased my allotment of physical today. The dealer display case was full. I asked him again how sales was and he said, Very Good. I inquired how long the the gold inthe case had been there. Reply, "Since yesterday, Just filled it up". Is this guy making money on volume or is he getting ready for the big buying spree?
The times they are a changing.

Back to the GOLDEN TRENCH.
Slingshot
Peter Asher
(02/01/2001; 12:49:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47122)
USA Gold and Randy
Re- Contest (Phones have been down)
What a pleasant surprise, Thank you!

I was especially pleased to see that both the winners were chosen for stressing the change in leadership as a new factor that has entered the Gold conflict. It is a CONFLICT, not a phenomena, true?

I hope the double meaning of"the lights may be being turned on in "the boiler room." was noticed; that being "boiler room operations" as a term to describe sleazy under-cover manipulation and fraud and secondly , when the lights go on the rats scurry for cover.

I saw a post today (Wed.) Suggesting that Ashcroft as AG will add to the shakeup of the Clinton created criminal chaos, all the better for illegal Gold suppression to stand a chance of being corrected.

What I would like to see soonest is for spot to rise and hold above $268, just to give a sign that we're still not pipe dreaming.

Just found out that those born in "The Year of The Dog" as Bush is; will never let you down; is honest; and can be depended on by those he loves. So, "Who loves you, baby"???

Robin just did some intensive study of this off a place mat in a Chinese restaurant and when compared to all our family members it was UNCANNY. Much more so than Zodiac astrology.

I wonder what year Ashcroft was born in?
Peter Asher
(02/01/2001; 12:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47123)
Well,well

I wrote that plea for $268 right after we lost our lines at 800 PM PAC. Next time I'll ask for $368. :-)
Chris Powell
(02/01/2001; 12:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47124)
South African media full of attention for GATA
2:30p ET Thursday, February 1, 2001

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

I just talked with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy in
Johannesburg. He reports the following:

* He spent more than two hours at dinner last night
with the king of the Zulus, who was sympathetic and
helpful.

* He was interviewed for three minutes this morning
on a national television news program that was seen
throughout the country. Later in the day he visited a
Moslem town near Pretoria and was greeted by people
who said they had seen him on TV that morning.

* He met with a leader of the movement to create an
Islamic gold currency.

* His conference yesterday with news reporters in
Durban produced a major article in South Africa
Business Report, which in turn was published in most
major newspapers in the country, as well as a big
article in the Durban Daily News. The former article
is reproduced below. I hope to be able to share the
latter with you later.

I'm also sending to you here a brief item from South
Africa Business report explaining the recent
commotion in the share price of Durban Roodeport
Deep.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

'Conspiracy theorist' beats bullion drum

By Ingrid Salgado
South Africa Business Report
February 1, 2001

Durban -- The Gold Anti-Trust Association (GATA)
jetted into South Africa this week to drum up
support for its campaign to haul U.S. Federal
Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and top bullion
banks before a U.S. court for alleged manipulation
of the gold price.

Bill Murphy, the Texas-based chairman of GATA,
yesterday promised a scandal "bigger than Watergate"
that would bring sharp improvements in the gold
price.

GATA claims that investment houses J.P. Morgan,
Chase Manhattan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and
Deutsche Bank are colluding to keep the gold price
down to prevent losses on gold short positions.

It alleges that the Bank of International
Settlements and central banks have colluded in the
scheme to disguise inflation and weakness in the
U.S. dollar.

At a briefing in Durban yesterday, Murphy launched
an attack on Barrick Gold, the Canadian gold
producer that has expressed interest in investing in
South Africa, saying it would be "the worst thing
that could happen" if the group should acquire Gold
Fields. "Barrick has helped to suppress the gold
price through hedging," he said. "If they acquire
producers that are not hedging, that would be
negative for South Africa."

He said South Africa's premier gold producers,
including Gold Fields and AngloGold, had contributed
between $20,000 and $50,000 apiece to GATA, launched
in 1999 to litigate against gold price fixing.

AngloGold had supported Gata "in the early days" to
encourage open debate, said Kelvin Williams,
AngloGold's marketing director. But "since then we
have seen no evidence for their conspiracy
theories," he said.

Prominent gold analysts who met Murphy on Tuesday
had mixed feelings about his allegations. One
analyst would not discard the allegations "because
there have been completely abnormal reactions in the
gold market in the last four to five years."

However, Andy Smith, a gold analyst at Mitsui Metals
in London, said prices were low because bullion was
in surplus. "It's a simple story, hard to swallow
for some," he said.

* * *

US roadshow sends DRD shares soaring 23%

South Africa Business Report
February 1, 2001

Johannesburg (Bloomberg) -- The shares of Durban
Roodepoort Deep (DRD), South Africa's fourth-biggest
gold miner, jumped as much as 23 percent yesterday
after executives triggered interest in the mine with
a series of presentations to U.S. investors. The
shares gained 95 cents, or 17.3 percent, to R6.45
after earlier reaching R6.80.

Roger Kebble, the chairman, was in the U.S. telling
investors of plans to cut costs by 5 percent, or
almost R100 million, said Nick Goodwin, a gold fund
manager at Fedsure Asset Management."

"Things are really turning around at the mine," said
Goodwin, who has a buy recommendation on the stock.

DRD has lost money for seven consecutive quarters --
the most recent being a R8.9 million loss in the
three months to December 31. The company has
suffered floods, cyanide spills, and alleged fraud
in its Australian mines in the past year.

-END-
PH in LA
(02/01/2001; 13:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47125)
Minding my own business!!
Panda:
Now who's not reading carefully? The "Anti-Clinton hash" that gets served up every time the subject of Bill Clinton comes up is brought to us by DaveC. Not by you. It is as predictable as the dawn. Nothing interesting in it whatsoever. Mention Clinton, and certain mindless elements start slinging the stuff all over the place. What gets tiresome is that anyone who admits to not swallowing any part of it is branded "combative". Well, so much for thoughtful reactions!

As far as DaveC, himself goes, he is way, way off base. For his information, I have never left this forum. I (along with many others) am here every day. As for minding my own business, perhaps someone would be so kind as to explain to him that this is a public forum. Whatever is posted here, is posted to everyone. If he thinks he has private business that others should, or should not mind, he should put his comments into private e-mails and stop cluttering up the board for everyone else. He chooses to accuse me of not being "constructive" as if I have some obligation to be constructive and massage his obviously sensitive ego. But this is not the case. My comments are my own, and I write what I please, oblivious to whether it meets with his approval or not.
Galearis
(02/01/2001; 13:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47126)
Inflation alert for Canuck!
NO MORE STEAK!Well, no more for me anyway. Beef just went up 30% at the local grocery store. Now I am down to veal. (smile)

That's the downside. The upside is that one can now eat healthier. Tofu, here we come! Yippeeee!!

For all on the topic of gold: food fights on this forum I consider an indicator for a favourable move in gold. They just aren't always that fun to read (smile). Opps, I believe I may have started another one (smile).

G.
Gold Trail Update
(02/01/2001; 13:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47127)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 13:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47128)
No time to think out loud right now so you must read this directly
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010201/l01248870.htmlHEADLINE: BIS says Foreign Bank Lending to U.S. Continued in Q3

Excerpt to let you know what to expect at the link:

------ The BIS, as bank and forum to the world's central banks, did not say in its report if the data had any implications for financing of the huge U.S. trade and current account deficits. Economists may wonder however if the increased lending by foreign banks reflects an offsetting trend amid possible slowdowns in foreign investor demand for U.S. stocks and bonds.

Amid concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, fears may loom large among economists -- and central banks -- about what might happen to the dollar if such inflows into the U.S. were to reverse suddenly. The BIS touched on the dangers of such a scenario in a gloomy report last June when the U.S. economy was much rosier.

More recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in remarks to the Senate Budget Committee in January, noted that large inflows, especially from Europeans, had been adequate to finance the U.S. current account deficit. Had that not been the case, the dollar would have declined appreciably, he said. But he also said the rising U.S. trade deficit was a problem which could not go on indefinitely. -------

I ask you...our oft' mentioned "landing" (whether soft or hard) is in WHOSE hands?

So, sit back and enjoy the ride, Mr. Greenspan. At this point the man in your shoes must just go through the motions like a swimmer in a waterfall, with many others bobbing along afterward in the torrent behind.

As for gold owners...we are safely out of the river. "Dry shoes for ALL my men!"
RossL
(02/01/2001; 14:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47129)
Pacific Gas &Electric defaults
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010201/c6.htmlPG&E defaults on short term debt.

JMB
(02/01/2001; 14:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47130)
Randy

AGENCIES & MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES...I thought this was a temporary Y2K deal.

"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday extended for another year the use of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as collateral along with U.S. Treasuries, for repurchase agreements in daily open market operations."

I can see why the Chairman can not define "money".

In your opinion, at what point can WE conclude that the USA is undergoing hyper-inflation? TIA
Simply Me
(02/01/2001; 14:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47131)
Congratulations and Thanks!! Not too belated, I hope.
Hearty congratulations to "2001: A Gold Market Odyssey" contest winners: Sirs Black Blade, Peter Asher and SEER!
Your prizes are well deserved for helping us to scout the trail ahead.

Congratulations are also due to fellow Honorable Mention winners Sirs ET and AUgustUS for pointing out the treacherous cliffs and bogs along the way.

To MK and Randy, my thanks for being included in the Honerable Mention list. I am honored. However, it is you who deserve the credit for maintaining this forum where a 49 year old "soon-to-be grandmother", who's primary economic experience up until finding this forum in autumn of '99 was balancing a checkbook and maintaining a household budget, could learn enough about the world economic/political environment to write a post that warranted Honorable Mention among the many erudite contest entries.

I kept my gender secret till now, not to be coy or masquerade as something I am not, but merely to be taken at my word....accepted or criticized on that basis alone. I reveal my gender, age and (hopefully) past ignorance now, because I am proud of being recognized for getting even a small grip on this vast subject!

ALL: My everlasting thanks to all for the enlightenment you have brought to this forum. FOA/TrailGuide, MK, Randy, and ORO are very important for the information they bring to us. But, it's the ongoing discussion of all the forum participants, the various world-views and opposing ideals, that brings the information into focus and pulls it into the real world for me. Although I don't post much. I wanted you to know that there are many of us, lurking and learning, who appreciate your efforts.

My goal in continuing to lurk and learn here is to overcome the western mindset the puts "blinders" on my thinking, so that I can, for the welfare of my family, walk in the Footsteps of Giants and help them to do the same!

simply me



R Powell
(02/01/2001; 14:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47132)
For Gandalf the White

Hello Wiz. I, too, was interested in Panda's source and tried www.southchinamorningpost.com which worked to a home page but from there the way is blocked by the forces of evil which can only be overcome by filling out a registration form. It claims to be free but desires 87% of all the information in your brain. I could not overcome its privacy prying talons and was forced to retreat. Maybe a sorcerer knows how to elude the guards?
Rich
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 15:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47133)
JMB, thank you for showing interest in this
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/3120011/default.htmlYou asked for my opinion, and I assure you that my thoughts amount to N-O-T-H-I-N-G ...like a three-year-old who notices the wind is blowing and says so. Nevertheless, you can see the product of my two brain cells colliding in my post on this subject yesterday (link above) ........scroll down to msg# 47046.
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 15:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47134)
PH in LA

I did immediately post an apology, did you not see it? I mentioned I had fallen victim to what I abhor, and condemn.

I sentenced myself to 40 lashes with a bamboo pole ( but only managed thirty before having to eat it) which, as you know, to a Panda is akin to an Italian being clubbed with a salami.

I apologise again. I am not too haughty to admit when I err.

As they say - to err is human ( but err...err....err is unforgiveable.
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 15:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47135)
All positive stuff from China

What excites me about what is going on in China re Gold is that it is all positive stuff. They are betting on a bright future for gold ( The Chinese are great gamblers). They always prepare well in advance, and because of stretched, and limited, resources are careful where they commit their money.

Once that exchange opens and the market opens up to their own people as well as the world, it should all be coming into place - elsewhere.

There's going to be 'Panda-money-um' in the gold market (gee sorry fellows just couldn't resist it)
slingshot
(02/01/2001; 15:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47136)
Galearis msg 47126
Beef up 30%/Food fights The American people are going to experience the Hamburger Equation. Every time the get a hamburger from their favorite fast food outlet, they will pay 30% more.Do you remember the jingle, A $1.99 for a limited time. How about , You deserve a break today. What type of break are you getting when it costs $8.00- cheese please. If this is a good indicator and I believe it might be, then, Gold, $269.00 for a limited time.
Are we having fun yet?
Slingshot
Pandagold
(02/01/2001; 16:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47137)
Mr Gresham: Churchillian quote

I was surprised when I saw how you had transcribed the Churchillian quote ( you had copied correctly from your source) I felt certain no British Generals would have said that, so I give here the correct quote:-

"When I warned them [the French Government] that Britain would fight on alone whatever they did, their generals told their Prime Minister and his divided Cabinet, 'In three weeks England will have her neck wrung like a chicken.' Some chicken! Some neck!

Speech to Canadian Parliament, 30 December (1941), in Complete Speeches ( (1974)) vol. 6, p. 6544

(I believe Kennedy senior, who was the American ambassador, had made a similar statement.)

This is also one I like:-

"The empires of the future are the empires of the mind".

(Speech at Harvard, 6 September (1943), in Onwards to Victory ( (1944)) p. 238)

This shows he had great perception in what is taking place now. Technology is forcing our minds to work at an ever increasing pace just to try and catch up with it.

Thanks for your comments
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 16:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47138)
Thought
FOA's latest up in another window, waiting for tonight -- juicy, juicy! -- grrrrr, gotta get back to work now.

Thought while heading out the door brought me back:

The fear of being misled by someone is a strong one, especially in those who've been misled before, and probably proportionately to how much your heart now wants to trust!

I've been diappointed before, in things which I poured heart and soul into. I'm here now, trusting again, (or as Reagan said to Gorbachev: "Trust, but verify") but I see us all sort of like the cat who sat once on a hot stove.

He won't sit on that hot stove again, and he won't sit on a cold one either. Might have been a nice view out the window from that perch, too.
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 16:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47139)
Panda
Yes, thanks, now I remember it that way, in his voice.
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2001; 16:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47140)
Another
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1026.htmlSorry, forgot to add the link that triggered that post.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 16:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 47141)
Hello Trail Guide. Thanks once again for providing a well-lit walking tour through the past
In days past, when I finally chose to weigh in on the fanciful debate over the (un)likelihood of copious amounts of stockpiled "black gold" in existence in bunkers somewhere, I tried to put forth a focus on two elements that would satisfy any farmer regarding the veracity of such claims. (Why farmers? It has been my experience that a majority of farmers are endowed with common sense, and more importantly, they do not hesitate to use it!). I talked against the presence of massive black gold stockpiles due to 1) the many technical/logistical obstacles which do not support such levels of production in human history, and 2) the socio-political-economic realities of our ancestors which would not be conducive to the permanent suppression of any such easily and secretly mined wealth against exposure to the light of day--implying that the ancient chain of owners ALL denied themselves the improved life that would have come from spending what it was they held..."money". Not likely.

In conjuntion with your #56, I hope that readers of your latest message come away with a clearer sense of the realities of point #2....that gold would not sit idle or hidden in those days if it could (and it COULD!) be used to purchase a better lifestyle. Truly, while human motivations remain similar through time, the socio-economic enviroment that we shape for ourselves has evolved, and with it, so to has evolved changes in our behaviours as guided by our unchanged human-creature motivations.

I am certain you have opened a door to greater understanding when you explained how the item selected to be spent for other goods was that item which would bring the best trade. For travellers on the road, the necessary convenience of gold dictated its superior performance and hence, its use, whereas in town, one would likely see a flourishing free-for-all "bartering" economy where gold needed not pass from hand to hand for each transaction.

The small parallel we might find helpful to draw is that modern times and commercial banking has given us all the "town" mentality whereby we set our gold aside as the function of our mondern currencies allow us to bargain for the best trade for an improved lifestyle. But importantly, we must all recognize that there are distant towns that offer goods to improve our lifestyle, and also recognize that specialization/division of labor has helped to make us each "towns unto ourselves". It is in this sense, therefore, that it remains in our best interest today to hold these golden "hunks of metal" because as travellers in this modern-life environment we are ALWAYS "on the road" figuratively speaking.

But clearly, the problem many people seem to have with this concept is recognizing the necessary transitionary period we are in regarding a shift in popular western thought.

Thanks again for your sharing your considerable talents for elucidation.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 16:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 47142)
Federal Reserve data: latest weekly money supply increases for the week ending January 22nd
Figures in these monetary aggregates are shown as billion $, versus change from previous week.

M-1 = 1,104.9 . . . up 17.3
M-2 = 5,003.3 . . . up 17.8
M-3 = 7,169.8 . . . up 12.6

Here we continue to see a balloon trying to blow itself up to fill a party room.

(Remember, only YOU can make your decision and take action to acquire gold BEFORE circumstances drive you to seek that which can no longer be so easily had.)
Wild Hare
(02/01/2001; 17:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 47143)
collective bargaining

Would it be reasonable, prudent, and possible for we usagold-forumers to attempt a group buying effort through cpm?

By collectively pooling our paper we can perhaps get the lowest rate ever on a stash of coins as ferreted out by the knowledgable and well-connected tower dwellers. I'm partial to pre-33 eurocoins but am open to seeing what is available.

A suggested plan of attack as follows:

1. If the tower approves, provide an email address and cut-off date where interested participants may reveal the amount of paper he/she is interested in converting.

2. The tower analyzes this ballpark lump-sum to see if it is worth continuing the project.

3. If deemed worthwhile, the tower publishes rules for how the sale will work and what coin/coins are offered.

3. let the quid pro quo begin.

The objective here is to use collective buying and the power of e-communication and organization to minimize the $/coin.


justamerewildharebrainedthought.
SteveH
(02/01/2001; 18:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 47144)
Won't see this on Bloomberg, but sadly time will prove it is more
correct than the drival I heard about how short and mild this puppy may be, from kitco:

Date: Thu Feb 01 2001 17:07
COGOLD (Interesting read from Gold-Eagle) ID#339164:
Copyright � 2000 COGOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Contrary to the popular spin, Greenspan is not lowering interest rates to save the stock market, but to save the banking system. He could care less about the stock market, or would have lowered interest rates long ago to save the $5 trillion dollars that has been lost so far. It is the jeapardy that many of the major banks are in that has prompted the rate decreases. The Federal Reserve Board is a central BANK, not the central STOCK market! He has been warning people for some years now about the bubble stock market, but his warnings have fallen on deaf ears. People hear what they want to hear. The Fed lowering rates is not a sign of good times to come, but of the opposite. It is a sign of how desparate things have become. The U.S. banking system is in mortal peril. Here are the three strikes against it: 1. Banks have loaned a LOT of money based on the paper wealth created in the bubble stock market that is now disappearing; 2. The stock market is taking massive losses, and a lot of collateral the banks hold are crashing in value and loans are going bad; and 3. Even blue chips, like AT&T, are seeing their stock values and profits plunge. What was once regarded as the lowest risk of all loans banks could make are now defaulting. That's the huge losses the banks are taking on utilities - at one time AAA-rated paper that now is rated junk. Rating agencies like Standard and Poors warn that they are on the verge of default. PG&E has just notified their creditors that they will not be able to pay over $1,000,000,000 in debts coming due. Major companies in which the banks have giant exposure are losing money hand over fist. Chrysler lost $1,500,000,000 in just 3 months and that is just the beginning of troubles. Defaults will abound. Many major banks ( B of A? ) are in BIG trouble, as these loan losses mount. Even if the big banks are bailed out, the small ones will be thrown to the wolves. The Fed may be able to raise enough liquidity to bail out the banking system; maybe 10, 100 billion, or even a TRILLION DOLLARS! But the stock market and the mutual funds ( including money markets ) have exposure to losses of up to 10 to 15 TRILLION dollars! That kind of bailout money does not exist. So what do you think is going to happen to the stock markets? The real estate bubble market as well? Jobs--good bye! Jobs are even now being cut in the hundreds of thousands! Every day more lay offs are announced. Recession--Depression ( ? ) here we come!
Hold on to your physical AU/AG. You may need it. Also, hang on to your old Y2K storage items; you may need them as well.

Shalom,
Wisebeard
lamprey_65
(02/01/2001; 18:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47145)
From Today's Market Rap (Fleckenstein)...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/index.gspThe quote speaks for itself:

"Roughly 30 minutes into the day, the NAPM figures were released and they made for ugly reading. Not surprisingly, the index was lower than expected, but the prices paid component exploded. The estimate was 59 and it came in as 65.7, so we're now seeing a real squeeze reminiscent of stagflation. Just another symptom of the fallout from the bubble that has been created."
Galearis
(02/01/2001; 19:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47146)
@ slingshot and steak (veal) (smile)
I AM having fun yet, yes indeedy! But I think it is impolite to type with my mouth full. (smile)

G.

P.S. I find I like veal better anyway. It tastes grape.(smile)
Galearis
(02/01/2001; 19:12:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47147)
@ pandagold, Mr. Gresham et al
Re the lemmings discussionThe lemming behavior you refer to is a myth. They simply do not jump of cliffs into the sea when their numbers get high. They succumb to those Malthusian complaints just like the rest of the animal kindgom of which we are also a part.

Sheep on the other hand, even the ones wearing clothes, DO have a tendency to jump from high objects when under great stress. Fortunately for the rest of us, they do this in singular fashion as opposed to major migration movements.

Only the first paragraph is not a jest. (smile)

G.
USAGOLD
(02/01/2001; 19:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47148)
Miscellaneous. . . .
http://www.cfr.org/financialvulnerability/reports/rap.htmlSteveH, the perception per your last post is on the money -- we are talking about systemic risk here and major systemic risk. And that's what's driving AG notthe stock market. The CFR Roundtable cited in my Commentary & Review this morning listed "exogenous factors" that sounded very much like our own TableRound's Four Horseman plus one (of time of yore). I have to say that perhaps they are catching up to the notables assembled here. Their Horsemen ("exogenous factors") were

1. bank systemic risk -- a failure of a significant portion of the international banking system

2. depreciation of the dollar, particularly against the euro

3. a further sharp rise in the price of oil (we may have seen the begining of the next leg today)

I added a fourth:

4. political hazard, the rift in the U.S. power structure that now extends to Wall Street

The links are at the Commentary & Review and posted here yesterday by ET (see above).

I have to say I like Horsemen more than I like "exogenous factors." Erogenous. Exogenous "zones" might have worked. Better than "factors." Horsemen of the Apocalypse? Even better.

I have to rate FOA's latest "Brilliant". Your depth, dear sir, never ceases to amaze me. Just when I think you've reached your zenith, you raise the bar -- all self-imposed (the sign of greatness in thought and action.)

The CFR's discussion occurred September, 1999 and we are well on the way to the "financial war room" scenario they discussed. Gold is reacting to the interest rate cut. It seems the new dollar policy has become "de facto" with the Fed's blessing -- an analysis you are unlikely to hear on CNBC, at least anytime soon.

I suggest a thorough reading. Link above.

My congrats to the Contest winners. I don't know if you caught this but Seer had to back up his cart to carry the metal from the Castle:

The gold on the price contest guess.

The silver on the essay portion.

Another silver for first time poster.

Whoaaaa........Seer indeed. Welcome to this esteemed Table, noble Sire (or is it Lady?) You never know about they who gaze into the still and ancient pool.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(02/01/2001; 19:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47149)
(No Subject)
CONFISCATION!!!!Will travel anywhere in the continental USA to speak to anyone who had their GOLD confiscated when FDR called/requested/mandated/took possession of ANY GOLD??????
Isn't confiscation a myth, fairy tale, old wives tale?????
Back to the GOLD TRENCH, ACCUMULATING.
Chris Powell
(02/01/2001; 19:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47150)
Anglo-American bids for DeBeers
Anglo American in $11bn De Beers bid

By Edward West
South Africa Business Report
www.busrep.co.za
February 02 2001

Cape Town - De Beers' share price rocketed 17,37 percent, or R44,40, to close at a new 12-month high of R300 yesterday on the surprise news that Anglo American had made a takeover bid for the diamond group.

The proposed deal could unlock potential in De Beers and dismantle a complicated series of cross-holdings with Anglo American, the mining and resources group.

It could also lead to a proposal being put to the holders of De Beers' linked units at $40 per linked unit, De Beers said in a cautionary statement.

The offer represented a slight premium (about R8 a share) to yesterday's share price, based on the currency at R7,72 a dollar.

The announcement of the proposed $11 billion deal propelled the all share index on the JSE Securities Exchange to a record year high, gaining 1,7 percent, or 155,7 points, to end at 9227,5. The index is now less than 100 points away from an all-time high.

Anglo American said it had made a fair offer in its bid for De Beers.

The $11 billion deal would benefit shareholders of both groups, an analyst said yesterday.

Anglo American shares were up 1,33 percent, or 640c, to R488,40.

The proposed deal between De Beers and the founding Oppenheimer family, Anglo American and Debswana - De Beers' joint venture with the Botswana government - led to about a million of De Beers' 400 million shares being traded on the JSE yesterday.

"We had been expecting this news over the past 12 to 18 months, but we were still taken by surprise at how fast it has all happened," said one analyst. Tony Trahar, the chairman of Anglo American, "has certainly surprised us over the 10 months he has been in office".

The consortium with which De Beers is in talks is 45 percent represented by the Oppenheimer family holding company Central Holdings Limited, 45 percent by Anglo American and the remaining 10 percent by Debswana.

Anglo American already holds a 32,3 percent stake in De Beers, while De Beers holds 35,4 percent of Anglo.

The offer, likely to comprise a combination of Anglo shares and cash for De Beers minorities equivalent to $40 a share, was expected to result in the effective delisting of De Beers, the analysts said.

Central Holdings Limited would pitch for the remaining 68 percent of De Beers, in the ratio of the shareholders' stakes in the Central Holdings Limited, with Debswana likely to resell its shares back to Anglo later.

"The elimination of this cross-holding will not only be to the benefit of Anglo's rating, but also to De Beers' shareholders. Anglo has always said it liked De Beers' mining operations; it fits in with Anglo's focus on mining and resources," one of the analysts said.

Anglo had been divesting itself of its non-core assets - yesterday's conclusion of the conditions precedent for a share swap with Remgro for Anglo's 15,3 percent of FirstRand was a case in point - but the deal would tidy Anglo's shareholding structure and improve its share rating, analysts said.



Tree in the Forest
(02/01/2001; 19:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47151)
All
Here are some additional Comex figures. Gold futures are looking for 10 milliion oz of gold with just 91,000 oz eligible. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the remainder of total stock at 1.8 M oz is registered which means spoken for. Of course there's no way to know how many of these contracts will call for delivery. AG futures for March are asking for a whopping 228 million oz of silver with just 25 million oz eligible. Can anyone say default? Palladium is a joke and ditto platinum with virtually no stock in either metal. Copper is calling for over 500,000 short tons with barely 79,000 available and most of that is in Arizona. Possible spot shortages? Aluminum does not appear to have a problem. Refining aluminum ore is very energy intensive though so this is a good time for al companies to slow production and sell the energy instead. It may be worth more than the aluminum.
The California/Oregon border electricity was interesting so
I thought I would add it. Zero open interest. Guess noone wants to sell CA any electricity!

Just thought someone might be interested in these figures.

As of: 1/31/2001 All figures approximate
& subject to adjustment
_________________________________________________________
|Comex |Contract| near months | |
|Future| spec. | open interest | Comex stock |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 100,000 | |
| AU |100 oz. | |Eligible 91,000 oz |
| | | |Total 1.8M oz |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| AG |5000 oz.|March 45,500 |Eligible 25M oz |
| | | |Total 93M oz |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| PD |100 oz. |March 1450 | 110 oz |
| | | | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| PT |50 oz. |April 7500 | 620 oz |
| | | | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 41,000 | |
| CU |25,000 |Feb & March |79,000 short tons |
| | lbs. | |mostly in AZ |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 1000 |85,000 short tons |
| AL |44,000 |Feb, Mar, April |meeting contract spec |
| | lbs. | |134,000 sh. tons other |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
|CA/OR |432 MWh |Currently no |Last settle $320.00 |
|Border|over 1 |open interest |per MWh basis March |
|Elctrc|month |in any month | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|

Tree in the Forest
(02/01/2001; 19:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47152)
All
Oops, that didn't work. Will try again.
Sancho
(02/01/2001; 19:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47153)
(No Subject)
Read an interesting item in an insurance circular the other day to the effect that the U.S. government spent over a million dollars inventing a ball point pen that would work in zero gravity for the space program. The Russians used pencils......With financial largesse of that nature does anyone really think the government could ever embrace any degree of fiscal austerity?
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 20:09:17 MDT - Msg ID: 47154)
Great post Sancho...and here is another aspect that concerns our gold forum
-----"U.S. government spent over a million dollars inventing a ball point pen that would work in zero gravity for the space program. The Russians used pencils."-----

Not only are expectations for fiscal austerity misplaced at best as you state, but by this we also see wherein lies the final hope (ala "spender of last resort") for the Fed to successfully "push on a string".

All things being equal, when the dollar gets "smaller", gold is grand.
Tree in the Forest
(02/01/2001; 20:12:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47155)
All
Here are some additional Comex figures. Gold futures are looking for 10 million oz of gold with just 91,000 oz eligible. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the remainder of total stock at 1.8 M oz is registered which means spoken for. Of course there's no way to know how many of these contracts will call for delivery. AG futures for March are asking for a whopping 228 million oz of silver with just 25 million oz eligible. Can anyone say default? Palladium is a joke and ditto platinum with virtually no stock in either metal. Copper is calling for over 500,000 short tons with barely 79,000 available and most of that is in Arizona. Possible spot shortages? Aluminum does not appear to have a problem. Refining aluminum ore is very energy intensive though so this is a good time for al companies to slow production and sell the energy instead. It may be worth more than the aluminum.
The California/Oregon border electricity was interesting so I thought I would add it. Zero open interest. Guess noone wants to sell CA any electricity!

Just thought someone might be interested in these figures.

As of: 1/31/2001 All figures approximate
& subject to adjustment
_________________________________________________________
|Comex |Contract| near months | |
|Future| spec. | open interest | Comex stock |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 100,000 | |
| AU |100 oz. | |Eligible 91,000 oz |
| | | |Total 1.8M oz |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| AG |5000 oz.|March 45,500 |Eligible 25M oz |
| | | |Total 93M oz |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| PD |100 oz. |March 1450 | 110 oz |
| | | | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures | |
| PT |50 oz. |April 7500 | 620 oz |
| | | | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 41,000 | |
| CU |25,000 |Feb & March |79,000 short tons |
| | lbs. | |mostly in AZ |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
| | |Futures 1000 |85,000 short tons |
| AL |44,000 |Feb, Mar, April |meeting contract spec |
| | lbs. | |134,000 sh. tons other |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
|CA/OR |432 MWh |Currently no |Last settle $320.00 |
|Border|over 1 |open interest |per MWh basis March |
|Elctrc|month |in any month | |
|______|________|_________________|_______________________|
Tree in the Forest
(02/01/2001; 20:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47156)
Arrrrgggh!! It doesn't even like my HTML!
Arrrrgggh!! It doesn't even like my HTML!
SEER
(02/01/2001; 20:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 47157)
CONTEST REWARDS
Just a note to say that I am humbled by the note that is taken about me being a first poster and also a runner up contest winner. Yes, I had to bring my cart in order to cary away the loot, but fortunately (or not) there was plenty of room. Remember, I guarded "a paltry sum at best" in the poem.

Regards to all. I have been a reader here for a long time. And to allay any questions, even though I am not a knight, the title "sir" does display my gender.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/01/2001; 20:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47158)
It's not ALL news. Psssssst...hey guys, are you ready for Valentine's Day?
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlCall Marie tomorrow to save your bacon from the fire.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/01/2001; 20:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 47159)
Pandagold, your msg. #47103, quite the myopic history lesson
So much of your post I find in error and frankly offensive. Your most outrageous statement was:"It was gold which won the last war....". WRONG! It was the blood and sacrifice of soldiers, sailors, airmen and those who supplyed the materiel for them to wage the fight....they won the war. The Third Reich was defeated with an amazing amount of gold on hand. The Russians drove the Nazis back to Berlin, without gold. Now, one thousand US veterans of WWII die each day. They did not fight for gold. They fought for freedom. They honored their governments call for service. Their sacrifice as well as that of their Canadian comrades is a far different sacrifice. It is self serving to claim that the Americas were saved from the Axis by the UK remaining. The US and Canadian fighter fought when their home was not threatened. Sorry, U-boats and 200 mile range rockets just could not defeat the USA.

You are also wrong about the German progress toward the atomic bomb. They chose the wrong approach (heavy water) and the US saturation bombing had denied them of sufficient uranium.

You also seem to forget "Lend Lease", the Marshall Plan, and numerous loans to Allies which were forgiven by the US. The only non deadbeat was Finland. (To this day I as an American taxpayer have to scratch my head at the wisdom of funding NATO!)

Do not misconstrue any of what I write as disparaging the efforts of the European allies in the victory over the Axis. Their homes and families were under direct attack. They had little choice. The same was not the case for those fighters from this side of the Atlantic.

Instead of throwing mud at the stars and stripes, you should be grateful for the people and nation it represents.
Galearis
(02/01/2001; 20:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47160)
tree in a forest
Welcome! That is a very welcome post, sir. I hope you can provide this information on a regular basis.

Best regards,
G
Galearis
(02/01/2001; 20:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 47161)
Correction: tree in the forest
Apologies, I did see a tree for the forest.

(smile)

G.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/01/2001; 20:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47162)
Sancho, US funding of science?
The zero gravity ball point pen is a good one. The one recent project that I find particularly amusing is the study of "Contribution of Flatulence in Cows on Global Warming". Only in the USA. (Bite your tongue Pandagold!)
justamereBear
(02/01/2001; 22:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 47163)
Galearis 47147 Steve H 47144 Black Blade

Galearis
I am Starting a new business, for the sheeple who are doing the lemming thing. Cordless Bungee Jumping, Pay me now, no credit.

Steve H
s'Truth. But then a certain somebody has been posting on this forum, with a sense of total awe, the numbers that the PTB has been adding to the money supply. Panic? Panic is not the word.

Black Blade
The thanks really are in the other direction. You are just a bit smarter than you believe, thats all.
That finite amount of oil question was all the rage in 1972. As is usually the case, some people got all worked up then, for say maybe 20 minutes, and then decided that they would rather party hearty. That stuck with me. The supply of petroleum is large, but finite.

The crunch, for me, came in the late 80's, or more probably the early 90's.
I wrote my mother a letter in late 92, which mentions it.
Some dingbat bureaucrat was spouting off, how proud they were that energy consumption was increasing, How this indicated how superior we were, etc. etc. Advocating more usage, not less. (thank God for SUV's)
My great respect for spouting bureaucrats raised its ugly head, and, lo, I had an epiphany. By the time a bureaucrat starts to sing huzzanas, the end is near.

As with you, the more I looked, the more the hair raised on the back of my neck.

Mankind has squandered its heritage in less than 100 years. Now we freeze in the dark. Kalifornians just have more of this grasshopper gene than most.

Best regards
j'Bear

ET
(02/01/2001; 22:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47164)
USAGOLD

Hey MK - concerning the CFR piece. Interestingly, they say they are going to inflate, no question. The CFR is basically the policy portion of our government. If that is how "they" see it, you can bet that is what they are going to do. Politically I don't see as they have much choice.

I hope you got to read Anne Williamson's piece about the trillions missing from the agencies. I guess we'll know if the situation is legit if they go after the missing dough, eh? If not, they might find it difficult finding taxpayers willing to fund this nonsense.
elevator guy
(02/01/2001; 23:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47165)
@Black Blade (2/1/2001; 1:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47070)
Howdy, Sir Black Blade.

I have to comment on that report about Y2K problems.

I remember talk of elevators stopping, cars not starting, planes falling from the sky, a total meltdown of our industrial infrastructure from which we would never recover, a new world leader called the beast, who would gain power by rebuilding after the chaos, and the second coming of our Lord Jesus Christ.

OK, see, none of the above has happened.

I work extensively in the elevator field, and I can tell you that NO software remediation was done by any company that I know. And its a small trade, so word travels fast, but there have been no reports of embedded chip failure, (we do have a few embedded chips here and there, as well as processor based, software driven systems) and there have been no elevator failures that are in any way attributable to Y2K. It just DIDN"T HAPPEN!

CHINA, using old stolen software and computers, Russia, the Third World in general, all were supposed to be very vulnerble to Y2K. They were last on the list of conciousness about Y2K, and did the least, if anything, to prepare. Yet there were no major problems worth reporting.

Haven't seen any planes falling from the sky.

Haven't lost water, power, or gas.

Everything continues as it has before Y2K, and has been for well over a year.

If there are any embedded chip failures, or software failures, they must not be very widespread, or critical, because there have been no major shake ups in the status quo.

How about we put the burden of proof on those who still spread this stuff around? Lets see some documented cases of Y2K failures. I bet there is barely a handful.

Have you ever seen that little joke, where you pretend that there is a little man in your hand, and you make your audience hold his coat, while he does backflips? Just cause you cant see him, doesn't prove that he is not real.

Well, in the smae way, Y2K lives on among adherents, and you cant prove its not real. If someone wants to beleive it, let 'em.

Journeyman
(02/01/2001; 23:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47166)
Galloping totalitarianism

The Tampa, Fla. Police department used automatic facial recognition
software to scan all the attendees at the Super Bowl in an attempt to ID any criminals
who might be attending. They claim to have IDd three minor criminals. Civil
libertarians claimed this was unconstitutional because there was no probable cause.
The Tampa PD said it was O.K. because they were only doing a test run. -Pittsburgh
Channel 11 11:00 O'clock News, Feb. 1, 2001.

Regards, j.
SHIFTY
(02/01/2001; 23:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47167)
JESUS IS WATCHING YOU
off topicThe burglar was creeping noiselessly through the darkened home, filling his bag with various valuables. As he reached his hand out to a box of jewelry, he heard a voice say, "Jesus is watching you."
Shaken, the burglar stopped. For a full minute he didn't dare breathe. Finally, he switched on his flashlight and carefully played it around the room, but saw nothing. Convinced that it must have been his imagination, he turned off the flashlight and continued in his quest for another man's wealth. He was busily unhooking a stereo set when he again heard, "Jesus is watching you." This time he nearly jumped out of his skin, he was so freaked out. Beads of sweat popped out on his face, and as he switched the light on again, the beam shook violently from his terror. He looked about the room, and noticed a birdcage in the corner. Upon closer inspection, he discovered a parrot in the cage. "Are you the one that spoke to me just now?" asked the burglar. "Yes, I am," said the parrot. "Why did you say 'Jesus is watching you?'" asked the man. "Because I felt like you needed to be warned," replied the parrot. By this time, the man was over his fright and was more than a little irritated at this smart-mouthed parrot that had tried to scare the living daylights out of him.
"What's your name?" asked the burglar. "Moses," the parrot said. "Hah," the man said, guffawing. "What kind of people would name their parrot Moses?"
"The same kind of people that would name their Rottweiler, Jesus."

Gandalf the White
(02/01/2001; 23:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47168)
Q for Jman! and the look at the CryBALL !!
ONLY Three ? Not very good was it !
and now the real news --- gray swearling clouds with flashes of energy in the CryBall tonight say the Hobbits -- Friday will be an interesting day !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(02/02/2001; 00:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47169)
Special NOTE !
I hope EVERYONE noticed the Type of Clouds in the CryBall!
BIG<;-)View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 00:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47170)
RE: elevator guy
Hi there elevator guy,

Yeah I know what you mean. I thought that some predictions were overblown on Y2K. Like I said though, I have had a few inconveniences with some software glitches. I keep getting warnings of "illegal date" for example. I just force them in by manual entry. I have heard of some problems in the "oil patch" where there were some minor shutdowns, and even an explosion or two. Y2K related? who knows. Seems we survived though. I still say that Y2K-like preparations are still prudent no matter what. The current energy crisis will spread, and lay-offs are increasing as this recession gathers steam. Those who took Y2K precautions to heart just may have been early is all, and they got their supplies cheaper to boot. I have to admit, even though I was somewhat skeptical of the more dire Y2K scenarios proposed by many, I did think that preparation was still a good idea. If something serious did occur, I would have hated to be out in the cold and looked like a fool because I knew that there was a "potential" problem of extreme severity and yet did nothing. Preparation and safety of self and family always come first, anything less is simply irresponsible.

Now, I have to go read yesterday's posts, Cheers.

- Black Blade
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 00:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47171)
Randy (@ The Tower) (01/31/01; 17:05:38MT msg#: 47046)

Randy, re your >>> for best clarity among people with differing understandings
of inflation and deflation, discussions should specify whether the user is referring to money supply (the preferable use) or to prices, <<<

I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."

Defining inflation in the (preferred by who?) context of the money supply comes from a time when economies were more centralized to their specific nation. Even though the dictionary gives equal weight to either use, it still perpetuates the now archaic cause and effect equation. Global trade is the giant sponge that absorbs Big Float, easily relieving any price pressure on the home economy. If inflating the money supply �caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! I suspect that there is a vast quantity of economic activity that does not show up in the record keeping but nevertheless �uses' its proportion of the money supply to carry on.

Re- >>>As I have said many times before, the view from The Tower is one of a deflation in dollars in the global scale as the use is replaced by euros and alternatives. However, as the dollar falls out of favor in international use, we see ample ingredients for domestic (within America's borders) hyperinflation of supply and prices as the Fed moves to liquidate the grinding banking sector from within, or even as the deflating global supply is sent packing...all into its original "tiny" home.<<<

What is there in "Feeding Leviathan" that you see as not occurring?. Just HOW do these dollars come home to roost? And, what and from where are forthcoming these "ample ingredients for domestic hyperinflation? Be specific. These discussions are too often endless non sequiturs or a segue over to a personal hobby horse as someone, to disagree, stresses a DIFFERENT point or item rather then debate the specifics of that which they are disagreeing with.

As to specifics, I see local gasoline today @ $1.45.9 down 18% from recent highs and I read Monday that Sabena and Swissair slashed �over the pond' fares on 11 routes. Anecdotal, of course, but so are the tales of what costs more at the moment. It is the summation of all prices, properly weighted by dollar market share that would give us the true state of the �flation situation. This is the main thrust in " Leviathan." That at best, a balance of price movement will occur as lower debt service costs offset the purchasing power lost. We are backing down from an artificial affluence that robbed tomorrow to pay for today. If this economy is very much dependent on the purchasing power of the holders of debt instruments, then it is TOAST!

Finally, Re- >>> You see, the euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<

What are the mechanics that would cause this?. Your North star is my Southern Cross (Headed South). To date, the Euro exchange rate is 20% below the rate at inception. I have, from the start, declared the Euro a weak cousin to the dollar. I indicated that the strength of the Mark and SF would be diluted by the Lire and Peso and then later stressed the further weakening that will occur as former Soviet satellite nations, complete with massive environmental liabilities, are enfolded into the Union. Imagine how the dollar would be valued if we added the economy of Mexico into it's domestic quantum.

Absent delineation of mechanical cause and effect, the statements bandied about, such as "Dollars coming home to roost" and (Price) "Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few Goods" are simply platitudes!

Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 00:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47172)
Gary North's Reality Check, #57
http://www.prudentbear.com/guest2.htm

THE ASSET BUBBLE AND THE LOOMING BUSH RECESSION
>
> Alan Greenspan's announcement of a half a percentage
> point cut in the federal funds rate on January 3 sent a
> signal to the markets: the slowing of U.S. economy is
> beginning to worry FED policy-makers.
>
> This is the background to an article that you need to
> read. It is written by Dr. Kurt Richebacher, a retired
> German banker and "Austrian school" economist. He has been
> warning for months about a looming credit crisis. With
> Greenspan's announcement, it becomes clear that the Board
> of Governors of the Federal Reserve System have begun to
> take steps to head off this crisis. Dr. Richebacher's
> article appears here:
>
> Earlier this month, Montgomery Ward declared
> bankruptcy. The company will lay of 37,000 employees.
> Over the last weekend, Sears announced a decision to close
> 89 stores. Retail sales for Christmas were below
> expectations. Department store sales were down 0.6% from
> November. Total sales in the economy were up a meager
> 0.1%.
>
> With this as background, Richebacher's January 12
> essay takes on added significance. "The most recent data
> are depicting an economy that is slowing so dramatically
> that we are beginning to wonder whether the U.S. economy's
> hard landing has not already arrived, implying zero or less
> than zero economic growth in the fourth quarter."
>
> Certain of his observations I regard as crucial. He
> begins with a list of the problems:
>
> The steep slide of the high tech stocks, the
> broad retreat of the Old Economy stocks,
> multiplying bank announcements of sharp increases
> in bad loans, the virtual shut-down of high-yield
> lending, record-high indebtedness of firms and
> consumers, an unsustainable negative personal
> saving rate, an unsustainable, monstrous
> current-account deficit and countless profit
> warnings -- all these bigger and bigger economic
> and financial negatives, relentlessly eroding the
> U.S. economy's stability and strength, are flatly
> ignored by Wall Street's Panglossian economists.
>
> Dr. Pangloss was the always optimistic character in
> Voltaire's novel, CANDIDE. He serves as a model for the
> vast majority of the "buy and hold" crowd on Wall Street.
> They told people to buy and hold dot.com stocks all through
> the collapse, which has wiped out three-quarters of the
> capital value of this industry since March 10.
>
> Richebacher points out that today's rate of price
> inflation in the United States is 3.5%. It has been
> averaging 3% since 1995. This calls into question the
> effects of the economic growth rate of 5% that the nation
> enjoyed, and which has now disappeared. The U.S. is
> experiencing the highest rate of price inflation of the
> major industrial nations.
>
> The seemingly low inflation rate is a bad sign.
> "Ironically, it is a historic fact that the worst
> recessions and even depressions in history have happened in
> the wake of prolonged periods of low inflation."
>
> America had zero inflation during the 1920s, and
> Japan's CPI during the bubble years of 1988-89
> kept below 1%. In light of these experiences, it
> is a badly flawed argument that the low inflation
> rate in the United States is proof of the absence
> of an asset bubble.
>
> Today, the increase in the value of stocks has led to
> ever-more borrowing by corporations and consumers. The
> increased value of the collateral has persuaded banks to
> lend more money. This is a classic sign of a bubble
> economy, he says.
>
> Since 1994, nominal (not inflation rate-adjusted) GDP
> is up $2.7 trillion. But corporate and consumer debt is up
> 4.75 trillion. Indebtedness of the financial sector is up
> $4.1 trillion. Overall credit creation is $8.9 trillion.
> With respect to economic growth, the economy is no longer
> getting much "bang for the buck" from its credit system.
>
> In sum, total GDP growth of $2,720 billion
> compared during this period with overall credit
> creation of $8,900 billion. This is not just
> another Bubble Economy. It's by far the worst of
> its kind in history. To accommodate such a credit
> explosion for such a long time, it needs one of
> two things on the part of the central bank:
> absolute recklessness or absolute ignorance in
> matters of credit and money.
>
> The rate of personal savings has collapsed. From
> 1992, at the tail end of the Bush recession, the rate was
> 8.7%. This is normal at the end of a recession. It slid
> to 4.1% by 1998. Today, it's slightly negative. So,
> consumers started buying. "Manifestly, this sudden
> stampede of the American consumer out of current saving has
> been the U.S. economy's chief propellant over the last two
> years. In this respect, it definitely is a new paradigm
> economy. This has no parallel in history."
>
> But Christmas sales point to an end of the consumer
> boom. This decline had begun in the third quarter of 2000.
>
> If the sudden, rapid slowdown both of consumer
> and corporate spending appears awesome, even more
> awesome is the speed with which the American
> financial system has shifted from unfettered
> credit excess to a nascent credit crunch, even
> though excess reserves of the banking system are
> at a higher-than-usual level. Evidence of a
> developing credit crunch is all of a sudden
> everywhere.
>
> What's behind the shift? Given the ample supply
> of bank reserves, it's obviously not Fed action
> that has caused this dramatic change in the
> financial climate. Its apparent main cause must
> essentially be a fundamental reassessment of risk
> throughout the economy, triggered by escalating,
> alarming news of bond defaults and bad bank
> loans. On Oct. 16, Bank of America reported a
> sharp decline in third-quarter income as
> non-performing loans had jumped nearly 50%. The
> next day, Chicago's Bank One reported a 37% drop
> in earnings in large part for the same reason.
> Losses from large syndicated loans by U.S. banks
> so far have more than tripled this year to about
> $5 billion. That's higher than in the last
> recession. New bank lending has slowed to a
> crawl.
>
> Just as bad, if not a lot worse, is the situation
> in the other lending channel of the financial
> system: the capital markets. The junk-bond market
> has collapsed, with yields at their highest level
> in a decade. Actually, a growing number of
> investment-grade bonds are trading as if they are
> junk. As stock prices drop, dealers and inventors
> quickly mark down the value of related bonds as
> well.
>
> We are seeing an unwinding of the credit-funded
> American consumer buying boom, as well as an increase in
> the risks for banks. This is happening simultaneously.
> Richebacher concludes:
>
> For the time being, it looks like a slow-motion
> credit crunch, but wait until the markets awaken
> to the probability of a hard landing. While
> policymakers and investors yearn for a cooling
> economy to prevent rising inflation and fend off
> future Fed rate hikes, they are unprepared for
> the havoc that a sharply slowing economy will
> play with corporate earnings -- and with
> America's extremely vulnerable financial system.
>
>
> BUSH'S PROBLEM
>
> It is normal for a newly elected President to suffer a
> recession early in his first term. For new Republican
> presidents, this has been true since 1929: Hoover,
> Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Bush all suffered
> first-term early recessions. Bush's hit a bit late -- mid-
> 1990 -- and this cost him the 1992 election.
>
> George W. Bush is walking into a meat grinder that has
> been fueled by Federal Reserve credit since the LTCM scare
> in September 1998. The FED tried to slow things down in
> 20900, but the result was a series of interest rate hikes
> and the return of the inverted yield curve last july -- the
> best indicator of recession -- where 90-day T-bill rates
> exceed 30-year T-note rates. This condition prevailed
> until early this month, when the FED's reversal and pump-
> priming, which began in early December, finally drove down
> short-term rates.
>
> Bush has the votes to push through a tax cut if he
> gets full support from Republican legislators. If the
> Senate splits 50-50, Cheney will vote for it. We shall see
> how committed Bush is to his program. If he introduces
> legislation immediately, I think he can get his way. If he
> falters, which I don't expect, he will be perceived as
> weakening in the face of liberal media opposition, which
> wants him to be conciliatory, i.e., retain the Clinton
> agenda.
>
> I think his cabinet appointments will get through the
> Senate Democrats' opposition. Bush has the votes if he can
> hold his troops in line. The media are making a big deal
> out of some loud whining by liberal groups that voted 90%
> for Gore -- groups that are not representative of centrist
> Democrats. Bush can afford to ignore these groups. I
> doubt that 50 Democrats will stand with them in opposition
> of Ashcroft, who was a member of the Senate until two weeks
> ago. The Senate's club really is a club. Ashcroft was
> part of it.
>
> When his nomination sails through, Bush will be in a
> position to push his tax cut package. He will be perceived
> as having the votes. Unless Congressional Republicans
> defect in the midst of what appears to be victory, Bush
> will be able to get his tax cuts. He will need them. The
> economy is cooling too fast.
>
> Even so, the cuts are really marginal. They will not
> be enough to offset the basic economics of the asset
> bubble. The FED will be perceived, correctly, as the
> source of any great reversal. We are at the tail end of
> the longest economic boom in U.S. history. Asset prices
> are at historically high levels.
>
> The Nasdaq went down with the dot-coms. Now the
> pressure will be on earnings and profits of the less
> speculative sectors. Today, both profits and earnings are
> headed lower. Bush can't do anything about this.
> Greenspan can, but even he is limited. He does not want
> price inflation to reappear at the end of his career.
>
>
> CONCLUSION
>
> Get out of personal debt. Start cutting back on
> consumption expenditures. Beat the crowd.
>
> Start looking for ways to increase your value to your
> employer. Unemployment will raise its ugly head in 2001.
>
> If you own a business, secure your bank credit lines
> now, in writing. Do not get caught short by your bank's
> refusal to roll over your line of credit.
>


ski
(02/02/2001; 00:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47173)
Uranium Spot Price Up
www.nynco.com/fuel_prices.html

I watch the price movement of many different commodities and NOTHING moves like the price of uranium. The pattern for most commodities resembles the flight of a bumble-bee ... up, down, up & up, down & down .... from one day to the next. On the other hand the spot price of uranium moves like a supertanker on the ocean. It goes ONLY in one direction for a long period of time and then in the other for a long period of time.

I will demonstrate by giving a scattering of prices quoted by UXC, a urnaium dealer.
5-15-00 $8.45
7-3-00 $8.15
8-7-00 $8.05
9-4-00 $7.65
10-2-00 $7.45
11-13-00 $7.10
12-11-00 $7.10
1-1-01 $7.10
1-29-01 $7.25

Notice the price progression with special attention to the LAST ENTRY. The web address that I gave above displays the uranium price of four different sales organizations ... UXC, NUKEM, NUC FUEL, & TRADE TEC
Three of the four have displayed a price pattern like the example above. I know because I keep a log of all the posted prices.

The Most Likely Conclusion: The long awaited up-move in uranium prices is at hand. This seems to be confirmed by the price action of the world's largest uranium producer ..Cameco (CCJ NYSE, or CCO Toronto). Yes ... I own some and have had a happy day.
Old Yeller
(02/02/2001; 00:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47174)
A suggestion to Barrick for enhancing shareholder value

I have to admit,I am really starting to enjoy Leonard Kaplan's commentary at Prospector Asset Management,this tongue in cheek suggestion to our good buddy,Barrick Gold is a case in point.

"I must admit that I do have a very perverse sense of humor,but I must congratulate Barrick on their quarterly earnings.The largest North American gold producer reported a 4th quarter profit of 104 million dollars and get this;$95 million was the profit on their hedge book.These guys are good!The rhetorical question is whether they are a gold producer or a hedge fund.If they sold their underlying assets'sold their gold mines,fired the management,(but of course,kept the traders)they would sharply reduce expenses.Perhaps the shareholders would condone such activities,as greater profitability would ensue.After all, actually mining the stuff is such a dirty business."

Link from thebulliondesk.com

I can clearly remember when Barrick made their huge discovery at Goldstrike in Nevada which transformed them from an also-ran to a major producer.Boy,did these guys get lucky or what?Little did I know that they would take such an unbelievably rich discovery and weave this "hedging strategy" to the absolute detriment of the investors who provided the funds for their success.

Nasty bit of work,then,isn't it.
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 01:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47175)
Calif. Utility Pacific G&E Defaults
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010201/c6.html
By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cash-strapped California utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. said on Thursday it plans to pay its suppliers only about 15 percent of what it owes them, and that it and its parent, PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), have defaulted on $726 million of short-term debt. California, the nation's most populous state, has suffered from blackouts in the last two weeks. Pacific G&E and No. 2 utility Southern California Edison, a unit of Rosemead, Calif.-based Edison International (NYSE:EIX), cannot pass onto consumers their soaring wholesale power costs because of a rate freeze and the state's 1996 deregulation law. The utilities owe about $12 billion. Pacific G&E, California's biggest utility, and its San Francisco-based parent, which together have less than $1.2 billion of cash left, made their disclosures in mirror filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The defaults on the short-term debt, or commercial paper, were expected. The filings came after California's Assembly on Thursday rejected emergency legislation to fund state-backed power purchases because some legislators thought it would trigger rate hikes. California's Senate had earlier approved the measure. Another Assembly vote is expected Thursday. Pacific G&E said its ``intent is to pay its ongoing costs of doing business'' until the power crisis is resolved. PG&E, meanwhile, said it is ``examining'' a restructuring of its bank loans and commercial paper, and that it may take six months for holders of defaulted debt to get back their principal. PG&E shares traded Thursday afternoon on the New York Stock Exchange at $13.75, down 50 cents, or 3.5 percent. Their 52-week high is $31.81. Edison International shares traded on the Big Board at $13.02, down 32 cents, or 2.4 percent. Their 52-week high is $30. Pacific G&E serves about 13 million Californians. SoCal Edison serves about 11 million.

PARTIAL PAYMENTS

Pacific G&E said it plans to will pay on a pro-rata basis just $161 million, or 15.4 percent, of the $1.048 billion it owes to various power generators, the California Power Exchange (CalPX), a clearinghouse for electricity buyers and sellers, and the California Independent System Operator (ISO), which operates most of the state's power grid.
It said it owes the generators $437 million, and CalPX and the ISO $611 million. It had earlier said it expected to owe CalPX and the ISO $583 million. It said it will make partial payments ``based on the electric commodity portion of revenues collected through frozen rates. Peter Darbee, PG&E's chief financial officer, told investors in a Thursday conference call his company should be able to raise ``substantial amounts'' of cash to pay off holders of defaulted short-term debt three to six months after the state enacts a rescue plan. Pacific G&E said its cash reserves total $828 million, while PG&E said its reserves total $347 million.

DEFAULTS

Pacific G&E said it has defaulted on $437 million of commercial paper through Jan. 31, and expects to default on $294 million due February 28 and $142 million due March 31 unless its situation improves. PG&E, meanwhile, has defaulted on $289 million of commercial paper, and expects to default on $164 million more by February 28 and $48 million by March 31. Peter Darbee, PG&E's chief financial officer, told investors in a Thursday conference call his company may raise ``substantial amounts'' of cash to pay holders of defaulted commercial paper three to six months after the state adopts a rescue plan The utility, though, said it plans to keep making regular interest payments on $8.13 billion of other debt, including $938 million of bank debt, $1.24 billion of floating-rate notes, $287 million of medium-term notes, $3.37 billion of mortgage bonds, $1.61 billion of pollution control bonds and $680 million of senior notes. Pacific G&E also said its banks cut off two credit lines totaling $1.85 billion, following its downgrade by top credit rating agencies to junk status from investment-grade. PG&E said its banks have terminated two credit lines totaling $936 million.


Black Blade: PG&E have been in default on corporate paper for over 2 weeks now. They are bankrupt. Only the filing has yet to be done. The Kalifornia legislature approve a $10 billion bond package to bail out the utes. This also includes a $500 million package to immediately purchase more "juice" from neighboring states. They have burned through over $590 million of tax payer money in January alone. The use of electricity will increase toward summer in the land of "Fruits and Nuts." The only question left is how much will the "burn rate" increase. They will also have to service this new debt. I saw a special segment on CNBC about other states at risk of an energy crisis. The one analysts said Georgia was at the top of the list. I'm not so sure, however, the top dog from one the states utes disputed her claims and was very adamant about it. He reminded me of Kalifornia's former top ute regulator who made the same claims about how Kalifornia would never have those kinds of problems and had over 20% excess capacity, etc. I think his name was Hoenecker(?) maybe. He resigned not long ago. Hmmm�
ski
(02/02/2001; 01:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 47176)
Corrected Uranium Price Link
http:www.nynco.com/fuel_prics.htmlSorry, I didn't use enough of the required web address the first time.
Horatio
(02/02/2001; 01:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47177)
Fed Reserve
They have tricked us.
They convince americans fighting inflation is a good thing to do.They try to convince us that only by interfearing in the market place can "they" save us.
They create the distortions in the market place.Is it not true had they not "fought inflation"that real assets would have been able to compete for investors,would not gold and silver and all commodities have been higher and the stock market bubble have been avoided because some of that money would be spread around to include real assets instead of being concentrated in the stock market?.When all prices rise together and money supply rises equally ,where is the inflation?.They create distortations and pretend to save us from the very problems they create.These greedy bastards bankers and thier fiat money .When all assets compete on a equal basis there will never be inflation and you will never need them to "save you",what fools americans are.They, favor thier own assets "fiat money" at the expense of real assets.They prevent your wages from going up by importing goods made by cheap labor ,they then export the jobs to keep the pressure on.Only if you work for the gumment do you keep up,if you are in the private sector you must "compete".Where is thier competitican for wages.Where is thier foreign competator.They are protected by thier COLAS.The Gumment and the bankers are in this together. They have created a great distortion, and when it collapses as it must they will forclose on "REAL ASSETS" and reap thier ill gotten harvest and the gumment will ask for "emergency powers" to rule and we give up everything the founding fathers gave us without firing a shot....
Perplexed
(02/02/2001; 01:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 47178)
SLaTT - RIGHT ON !


Thank you my friend. World War 2 ended on my eleventh birthday, thus I was old enough to be well aware of one cousin killed as a crew member of a bomber in the raid on Schwienfort, a raid that resulted in a 40% loss of planes and crew, and another in a submarine at about the same time.

I have very high regards for English resolve, tenacity and fearlessness in battle, the fact that Hitler didn't, cost the Germans dearly. The fact that he gained his opinion of the United States from the book "The Grapes of Rath" cost them even more.

Hitler had no concept of a nation of people willing to fight and die, not for conquest and gain, but contrarily, at a cost of wealth and lives to preserve and protect the freedom of others.

This zeal in the individual American is not the result of birth or heritage, it is a transmitted contagion of freedom, and infects every refugee, from the first moment his foot touches our shores.

Panda we are experiencing the death throas of a dying economic system which in my opinion will take government, as we know it, along for the ride.( And this is not limited to USA)

You are not alone in your assessment of world events. There are few partipants in the forum, despite what you may think, that are asleep at the wheel.

You appear to think that all this government must do is issue an order, and most of us will just load our arms and ammunition into the bed of our pickup truck, and our gold in the cab, drive to city hall and give them the keys. WRONG!!

While the zeal to fight for King and Country has resulted in cemetaries around the world being populated by the youth of the UK, the Zeal for Freedom has resulted in the same thing in the USA, and IT IS STILL ALIVE AND WELL.

It is my nightmare, as well as many others on this forum, that some NIT WIT Politician is going to forget this zeal, and some how arrive at the conclusion that the gun control propaganda with which we have been assailed, has worked.


Perplexed

Perplexed
(02/02/2001; 01:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47179)
Peter Asher--Deflation


Peter I copied chapter 1 on deflation, but I have been chasing my tail, maybe I will have time to study it before I get chapter 2.

I enjoyed your daughters letter very much, thanks for posting it, and congratulations on your version of the Odyssey, very well thought out.

Perplexed
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 01:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47180)
"The Mad Tea Party"
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research/docview.asp?viewnews=true≠wstype=1&viewdoc=true&dv=true&doc=124New research from Simmons and Co. Intl. is available at the URL. "The Mad Tea Party" provides a not so rosy analysis of future oil supply vs. demand.
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 01:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47181)
U.S. Manufacturing in Recession; Economy Falters
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010201/ts/economy_dc_1.html
By Ross Finley
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity withered for a sixth straight month in January, signaling one-fifth of the economy had slipped into recession and that overall growth may have stalled, a survey showed on Thursday. The report, delivered a day after the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) slashed rates by a half-point for the second time in less than a month, overshadowed earlier figures showing a rise in both personal spending and construction spending in December, and a jump in unemployment claims during the past week. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) said its January manufacturing index slid from 44.3 in December to 41.2 -- its lowest level since March 1991, at the tail end of the last recession. Economists had expected a 43.6 reading. ``This has confirmed the feeling that the manufacturing sector is in recession...(and) the impression the manufacturing sector is in free-fall,'' said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago. Manufacturers have been struggling to cope with high energy costs, weakening export sales and sluggish consumer demand for big-ticket items, as well as an overhang of inventories built up when the economy was booming in the first half of 2000. Financial markets, still digesting the Fed's half-point rate cut were little jostled by the news as further manufacturing weakness was widely expected. U.S. Treasury bonds extended an earlier rally, while major stock indices were mixed. The dollar was little changed against major currencies.

NAPM chair Norbert Ore said the January manufacturing index correlated to an overall economic contraction of 0.6 percent at an annualized pace, meaning that last month the broader economy failed to grow for the first time in 117 months, or nearly 10 years. In another ominous sign for America's industrial sector in the months ahead, the NAPM new orders index, a gauge of production to come, tumbled from 42.5 in December to 37.8 -- its lowest since January 1991. The NAPM production index, meanwhile, plunged to its lowest point since May 1982. ``Obviously the economy is in trouble -- the Fed has lowered rates dramatically -- but I wouldn't generalize from the state of the manufacturing sector that the overall economy is in the same dismal state,'' said Banc One's Karydakis.

December Spending Up

Consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent pace in December, on trend, but the climb was driven largely by costlier services as Americans paid more for electricity and natural gas, the Commerce Department said. Consumers cut back on purchases of expensive items like new cars backing a report earlier this week that said a fall consumer confidence to four-year lows had reined in Americans' appetite to buy expensive items. Reports from vehicle makers showed January auto sales dropped, although less severely than many analysts had expected. The falls were led by an 11.3 percent plunge in sales by No. 2 automaker Ford Motor Co. Spending on durable goods tumbled 1.9 percent -- the sharpest fall since a 2.5 percent drop in May 1999 -- after a 0.9 percent drop in November. Spending on nondurables like food was flat after a 0.1 percent drop the month before. Incomes, meanwhile, rose by 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent fall in November and a 0.2 percent slowing in October. Spending on U.S. construction projects rose unexpectedly in December, led by gains in single-family home and office construction as lower interest rates, even with the U.S. economy rapidly losing steam, have encouraged building. Construction spending rose 0.6 percent, handily beating analysts estimates for a 0.4 percent drop and after a 0.2 percent increase in November. For all of 2000, construction spending rose 5.7 percent compared with a 7.4 percent rise the year before. Separately, the Labor Department said the number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits increased to 346,000 last week from 314,000 a week earlier. While that suggested some easing in tight labor markets, the closely-watched four-week moving average of claims, considered a better barometer of labor market conditions, fell to 327,000 from the prior week's 335,500. On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to issue its report on January employment. Wall Street analysts predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent.


Black Blade: No surprise to the minds of those here at the forum, however, Wall Street was in shock this morning. This mornings unemployment numbers may be interesting, though that number is expected to rise over the next few weeks with more and more lay-offs expected. Consumer confidence is at 10 year lows as well. These stats tend to be fairly accurate predictors of recession by themselves. We could be on the verge of "Interesting Times." Time to lock in PM positions, defensive stocks maybe, other hard assets, and pay off debt. The pundits are screaming at the tops of their lungs that "all is well", but few are listening.

Horatio
(02/02/2001; 01:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47182)
Japan
The Bankers took control of Japanese banks right after wwII
Rockefellers ,Rothchild,Chase ,Morgan et al.The bankers created a distortation in real estate there because thats an asset thats always in short supply therefore very easy to inflate.The only problem the bankers have is the Japanese are such great savers the Bankers have been unable to forclose on them!!Ain't that a hoot!!
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 01:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47183)
Natural Gas Bills To Be Even Higher - Kansas
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kmbc/20010131/lo/303140_1.html
Officials Explain Rising Costs

If you live in Missouri, you haven't seen the worst of high gas bills. The next bill will be even higher, KMBC's Micheal Mahoney said. That news came from the first day of a state investigation into the natural gas problem. At the hearing, the head of Missouri Gas Energy explained why your next gas bill from them will be even higher. "What they were getting in their last bill was gas at $6.29. Their next bill will show the gas at $9.80," Steve Cattron of Missouri Gas Energy said. In other words, the 44 percent rate increase that was approved by the state earlier this month for natural gas hasn't shown up on the bill yet. At the hearing by Attorney General Jay Nixon to find out what is going on, several factors were mentioned: low natural gas prices didn't encourage much more new production; storage supplies drained as the economy roared last summer; and an unusually harsh November and December weather drove up use, which made the price leap. Look where the price of gas was a year ago: $2.34. By June, it broke through the $4 barrier for the first time ever. It didn't stop in December -- another all-time record. Then it approached $10 in January, before falling off for this coming month. Nixon asked what the best way to lower the bills next month. "There aren't many good options. Unless it keeps getting warmer, they could drop. That would be an effect of weather," Warren Wood of the Public Service Commission said. Could the price shock have been prevented? Last July the state's regulator, the Public Service Commission, warned of rising prices. The Department of Energy did the same in August. MGE said that they went to the PSC with a plan to lock in a long-term price, and they got approval for it. The problem is that the price they locked in, about $4.46 for a basic unit of gas, was already out of date. "Exactly -- the market had already swept by that price level by the time we got the deal in August," Cattron said. Some people challenge that. In any event, the state will investigate whether or not MGE's 44 percent increase is justified. But it will be a year and a half to two years, maybe longer, before they reach a decision, Mahoney reported.


Black Blade: So it goes. Spreading across the land like wildfire. I saw a NG analyst from Goldman Sachs this afternoon on CNBC who said that NG prices would decline rapidly from here. NG is currently up $0.21 at $6.59 Mbtu. Hmmm�

Horatio
(02/02/2001; 02:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 47184)
My view of the world
SCARE'EM AND SAVE'EM ... Thats the force that Preachers,Politicians,Doctors use to get your money.
Now that I've enlightened some of you I shall go to bed...Douce image
ski
(02/02/2001; 02:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47185)
It's been a long day.
http://www.nynco.com/fuel_prices.htmlI think I finally got this link entered correctly for uranium spot prices. Sorry for any confusion that this may have caused.
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 02:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 47186)
AP Poll: US Opposes Alaska Drilling - "Can You Believe These People?"
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010202/us/energy_ap_poll_3.html
By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - A majority of Americans say they oppose exploring for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge , though most admit they are affected a lot by high fuel prices and concerned that California-like energy problems could hit their communities, according to a poll by The Associated Press. ``I don't think they should explore for energy there because it's a wildlife refuge,'' said Patricia Chandler, a businesswoman from Herrin, Ill. ``if they reserved it for the animals, they should leave it for the animals.'' The Bush administration says it is in favor of opening the Arctic refuge for energy exploration. Some have accused President Bush of using California's power woes as a way to promote his plan to explore for oil on protected Alaska lands.


**Black Blade: The President of the Sierra Club has called ANWR the Serengeti of North America. ANWR is in reality a black fly and mosquito infested hellhole in the tundra with natural oil seeps in abundance. Besides, the caribou run to the warmth of the Alaska pipeline in the dead of winter. They don't seem to be inconvenienced much.

A majority in the poll said that higher fuel prices already affect them significantly, and six in 10 are concerned they could experience problems like the power shortages, high prices and intermittent blackouts in California. The poll was conducted for the AP by ICR of Media, Pa. About half of those worried about the problem said they are very concerned. Half the poll respondents in Western states said they were very concerned, compared with one in five in the South and Midwest and about a quarter in the Northeast. Blacks were twice as likely as whites to be very concerned. People were about evenly split on whether the federal government should help California solve its problems. Young adults between 18 and 34 were twice as likely as senior citizens to say the federal government should help.


**Black Blade: Yeah, God forbid that MTV and Hollywood can't make anymore music videos because the rest didn't foot the bill for subsidized energy to Kalifornia.

``I think the federal government should step in and do something, just so people can afford their energy,'' said Chandler, a 31-year-old Democrat. ``It's pretty bad when people have to turn the heat down just to pay their bills.''


**Black Blade: Hmmm�, like maybe they should �..BUILD POWER PLANTS, AND DRILL FOR SOME OIL AND NATURAL GAS MAYBE!

Some have little sympathy for California, which has experienced problems in recent weeks after the state deregulated its power industry, allowing producers to sell at market levels, while limiting utilities from passing along the soaring energy costs. The state has struggled to keep the lights on over many recent days. ``Californians made their own bed, they need to lie in it,'' said Gerald Eisenhour, a 64-year-old retired chemical plant operator from Cold Springs, Texas. ``They're the ones who did not build their power plants. Why should the rest of the country bail them out?''


**Black Blade: Because that would mean taking some responsibility, and most Kalifornians are loath to taking personal responsibility. Besides, they are "Special" people.

Forty-six percent of those in the poll believe Bush can handle the nation's energy problems effectively, 38 percent think not. More than half of Democrats said he would not be effective and independents were about evenly split in the poll of 1,033 taken Jan. 26 through Tuesday. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points. ``I think Bush has got the right people, and he's going at it the right way,'' said Eisenhour, who describes himself as a conservative Republican.


**Black Blade: I doubt it. He's a politician, but who knows � I've been surprised before.

The president has said California generally will have to resolve its own problems, though the administration has signaled it would be willing to roll back pollution requirements at the state's power plants and find other ways to help the state. More broadly, Bush has asked Vice President Dick Cheney to lead the development of an energy plan to address the nation's needs. The poll suggests he has plenty of work to do on that front. Just over half, 53 percent, said they oppose the plan to explore for oil in the protected Arctic wilderness, while 33 percent favor the idea. An additional 13 percent said they did not know. Just over half of Republicans say they favor the plan. More than six in 10 registered voters said they oppose the Arctic drilling, as well as more than half, 56 percent, of independents and two-thirds of Democrats. ``I think they should open up the Arctic,'' said Bill Metheny, a retired crane operator from Anita, Iowa, and a Democrat with a different view. ``People are freezing to death and they can't heat their homes.''


**Black Blade: You notice that the Kalifornians don't ask Alaskans what they think or what they want. I guess that those in Kalifornia are just know better the needs of Alaskans (and the rest of the US)and must look after us as they would for small children. Otherwise Alaskans (and the rest of us) just might end up in an devastating energy crisis just like...., ��.Uh, er, I mean, ��.er, �..Oh Never mind.

SteveH
(02/02/2001; 02:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47187)
Perplexed
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/clawar020201.htmlgood thoughts.

For the CFTC, see the link.
SteveH
(02/02/2001; 02:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 47188)
The end of naiveness, the Internet
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.htmlhas ended it for us all, and replaced it with knowledge. So, what shall we do now...?
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 03:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47189)
Peter Asher (msg#: 47171)
I learned long ago at this forum that I am particularly ill-suited to serve as any manner of teacher, so have long since ceased in the effort. As is so often necessary, one lesson must build upon a prior lesson or information, yet I have no ability to know which of "my classes" were attended and which ones were skipped. Unable to meet the teacher's challenge to bring up all students together to a level of understanding (within the very small realm in which I could speak with some degree of authority), it seemed best for me to simply provide the news and evidence with a bare amount of supportive commentary, letting all others follow this news at their own pace...that is, if they choose to follow it at all. I will gladly share a part in their research, but I will not attempt to do their thinking. (Otherwise, I would be inclined to jump to the conclusion and say, "Buy gold the metal, not gold the paper" and these tiresome postings of mine thus become unnecessary.) If conclusive evidence were required of my utter failings as one who might be capable of teaching others, then we need look no further than the entirety of your line of questioning to me. These are the very items I have been prodigiously typing about in varying degrees of detail over the past days, weeks, months, and years here.

Importantly, it is clear from your post that we are not simply facing the challenge of misunderstanding of words and miscommunication...you have made your points quite clear, and I thank you for efforts at unequivocal expression. You see one world from your tower, and I seem to see Another from mine. And though I have great respect for your view and your comments, where I am sitting the sky here is so clear (and the birches are so pleasant), that I am not inclined to change my view to match yours. Neither will I infringe on anyone's freedom with a suggestion that they come around to my way of thinking. And that is how it is going to be.

I once said long ago that many roads may lead one to gold. Oh, but how much easier the journey can be on the senses, though, when the right road is chosen, providing the surest footing. I will continue to strive to give helpful information, but I will not give directions....an infringement upon your free will.
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 03:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47190)
Steve H

Your link (The end of naiveness, the Internet
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.html)
more or less says all I have been trying to get across. I know the writer would like to be even more explicit, but dare not.

The rumblings beneath the surface are getting louder and, like a volcano, may erupt one day with devastating consequences.

It is best that 'WHO ARE the Cabal' is left for the current naive to discover for themselves, only then will their light be lit.

Unfortunately, I fear that should the volcano erupt, it will be once again that the innocent will suffer for the guilty. The innocent know that, and that is their greatest fear, and mine too.

Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 03:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 47191)
Canada's Barrick Gold increases profits but takes cash provision hit

London--Feb. 1--Canada's Barrick Gold recorded net operating income of US $104 million, or 26 cents per share, for the quarter ended Dec. 31, a 28% rise from the $81 million, or 20 cents per share, for the same quarter in 1999. Following a $1.1 billion non-cash provision, however, Barrick had a net loss for the quarter of $996 million, or $2.51 per share. The company took the after- tax provision "to adjust the carrying value of assets to reflect lower gold prices seen recently", it said.

Black Blade: The so-called "most profitable gold mining company in the whole wide world" wrote down their value? I know that there are a lot of so-called "gold mine analysts" on some other sites, including miningweb that flogged this dog over the last several months. Now they have reported horrendous write down losses! A whopping Billion Dollar write down in just one quarter! It appears that those reserves weren't covered by the forward sales program. I guess my puny holdings in Harmony (HGMCY), Goldfields (GOLD), Franco-Nevada (T.FN) and physical PMs will just have to do for now. Oh yeah, I'm in positive territory on my PM stocks, can shareholders of hedge-fund Barrick (ABX) say the same? The only winners at Barrick are the Big Fat Happy Managers that get their Big Fat Bonus checks at the expense of their unwitting shareholders. It is no wonder that rumors abound that Barrick is looking to takeover unhedged miners so that they can strip them of their assets and drive down the POG with more forward sales.
Rhody
(02/02/2001; 04:03:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47192)
test
.
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 04:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47193)
DJ Japan's Jipangu To Become S Africa Harmony Biggest Hldr


JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--Japanese unlisted investment fund Jipangu Inc. is to acquire a 21% interest in South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HGMCY), the country's third-biggest producer, said a mine executive Friday. Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony's chief executive, told Dow Jones Newswires the investment is in two tranches. The first 8.0% interest will be bought by the end of April and the remaining 13% at a later time. By buying 8.0% of the miner, Jipangu will become Harmony's largest shareholder. The price will depend on the Harmony share price at the time of acquisition, said Swanepoel, with the figure at current value around $130 million.

"There's a lot on interest among Japanese investors in gold and there's no listed vehicle for this interest. We represent a viable, unhedged producer and Jipangu has ambitions to become that investment vehicle," said the executive.

He said company strategy wouldn't be changed and that Harmony was keen to agree a "standstill agreement to cap further investment (at 21%) for this reason." Harmony's share price on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa rose 25 cents ($1=ZAR7.7395), or 0.7%, to ZAR35.50 in early dealings Friday.

Black Blade: The second paragraph is interesting. A Japanese resurgence in gold investment. Let's see, US Dollar falling, stock markets don't look so good anymore, and a run to so-called safe-haven stocks. I would like to see how much of an increase in physical gold interest there is in Japan. Hmmm...

Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 04:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47194)
I-T raids on jewellers unearth 105 kgs of gold
Whatta ya mean no demand in India?
EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE

MUMBAI, FEB 1: Raids last week by the directorate of investigation, Income Tax, on jewellers in the city have yielded a whopping 105 kgs of unaccounted gold, valued at Rs 4.26 cr. The raids, involving teams of, in all, 150 officers and men, covered jewellers in middle class localities like Parel and Ghatkopar in Mumbai. The action revealed mass-scale concealment of stocks and income. A seizure of cash amounting to Rs 8.68 lakh and FDRs worth Rs 10 lakh were also made with the gold seizures. Three more premises, including one factory, are still under prohibitory orders, and the seizure of gold is likely to increase by the end of this week. Those covered are mainly manufacturers of gold chains. The jewellers include Prashant Jewellers, Sejal Jewellers, Chain and Chain and Sangam Jewellers. Accountants of some of the assessees also allegedly confessed that the stock registers were not authentic and were made on the basis of oral instructions by owners. The issue of gold for manufacture and the purchases allegedly did not tally, sources in the directorate said. Most of the assesses were filing returns of Rs one to five lakh though their turnover was in the region of Rs two to four crore. One of the assessees, Khyalilal Tater of Prashant Jewellers, allegedly obstructed the I-T team when they were searching his premises. He was arrested. The team had tried to seize his papers relating to cash transactions in the construction business.

Black Blade: We hear of declining interest in gold in India. 105 kgs in one raid, in one small city. Ever wonder how much comes into the country and is "off-the-books?" Gold is liquid, it is anonymous, and obviously in such demand that many will risk a lot.

Rhody
(02/02/2001; 04:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47195)
LEASE RATES
http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.htmlThe lease rate market is returning to pre-1998 (pre-Buffett)
conditions of virtually zero spread between one month and
one year rates. Zero spreads indicate incipient backwardation in the silver debt markets. This normally
would be bullish, indicating tightness in the supply
of metal (lack of liquidity). But the overall level
of rates is also approaching 1%. This cheap price for
borrowing silver suggests there is excess liquidity.
So, we have an oxymoron pattern here. Narrowing spreads
indicate tightening of supplies, yet narrowing of spreads
at ever lower rates indicates increasing liquidity.
Most of the narrowing of spreads has been by a drop in
one year lease rates, the lease term that is used by
mines to sell forward. So fewer mines are selling
forward (hedging). Six months ago, the one year lease
rate for silver was 3.5%, with the spread at 2.5%.
So what does all this mean? I like to think of
the spread as the size of the lease silver supply pipe,
and the overall rate as the pressure in the pipe by
monetary interests to supply metal in order to suppress
the spot price. When lease rates are low, this is
an attempt by bullion banks and central banks to push
physical metal on to the spot market to depress the spot
price and hide inflation. So low overall lease rates
indicate that right now silver is being pushed onto the
spot market but there are few takers. Meanwhile, the
overall supply of metal is dropping, so the spread
(sise of the pipe) is shrinking. More metal being
pushed through a shrinking pipe means pressure in the
silver market is building.
Let's look at this overstressed lease pipe in a
wider context. Leasing only makes sense when you
can borrow a cheap asset that is stable to declining in
price in order to sell it in the spot market to reinvest
the cash in interest-bearing paper vehicles like T-Bills.
for cash that is itself appreciating. We have had a
ONE PERCENT DROP IN US INTEREST RATES IN JUST THREE WEEKS.
So yields on one month to one year T-bills are falling
fast, and so is the dollar in which they are denominated.
That means the silver carry trade that has rationalized
the leasing game is dying. Our over-pressured leasing
pipe is now resting on a financial foundation that is
itself becoming unstable.
The whole carry trade relationship can be summed up
in the equation:
Profit of carry trade = (T-bill - inflation) - LR

where T-bill means interest rate on the T-bill of same term
as the term of the lease,
inflation is the % inflation over the term of the lease,
and LR is the % of the lease rate.
In the above equation, the T-bills are going DOWN, the
inflation is going UP, and the LR can't be dropped any
more without busting the pipe. Dropping interst rates
and raising inflation rates is death to the carry trades
and this will set silver free.
A more visual illustration of the above pattern can
be viewed with the provided link to sharefin's charts over
on kitco.
Regards, Rhody
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 05:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47196)
Randy (@ The Tower) 3:25:35MT msg#: 47189)

I must have missed something way back there. I hadn't realized you were supposed to be the teacher and we the students, I thought we were here to figure out the truth.
SteveH
(02/02/2001; 05:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47197)
The sixth horseman?
Lowering interest rates, Rhody?

How 'bought gold, Rhody, should we not soon experience the same trend in lease rate formula?
SteveH
(02/02/2001; 05:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47198)
Black Blade
So, did CA sell their soul (and their future) in the deal that brought them into the power supply business?

What were the terms of this phenomenal agreement?

And on whose advice did the CA Gov. begin to think that not allowing supply and demand to reign would ever solve their long-term problems?
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 05:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47199)
Black Blade #47194

It is the section re Japan's increasing interest in the gold market that is of particular general interest( though being a Harmony stockholder the other interests me, personally, too)

Japan is closely aware of what is taking place in China, they know what the impact on the general market will be. They also know, as do all of Asia, that they need to build some insurance protection against this growing 'western' denomination of economics ( and consequently their culture) by currency.

To them the Euro, will only be 'the dollar' in disguise, at least, if things progress as they are at present ( I allow for rumblings within factions of 'The Union' to try to deflect this, as more of the world,through 'enlightenment', raise their voices).

You can say I am wrong, I am not offended. But please keep your eye on the ball - CHINA!.
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 05:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47200)
Black Blade, (I erred re reference)

That reference should have been #47193
Sorry
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 06:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47201)
RE: SteveH
Hi There - it's been a while,

I don't know all the gory details yet on the California "Bond-Bail-out" deal yet. I know that the first vote was short by 3 votes. The Republicans apparently weren't happy with the fine-print. They hashed out a deal that is likely to be signed by the Kommissar. There is a $10 billion bond package with an immediate release of $590 million for the purchase of electricity. Although PG&E lost their revolving credit yesterday as a result of the default on their bonds. The banks are none to happy right now and this could be reflected on Bank of America's balance sheet this next reporting period. Of course someone has to pay for the electricity and NG, and that will either be passed along to the consumers, or reflected in higher taxes. Either way, the lack of preparation will cost the people of the state dearly. These costs will also come out of the hides of a lot of High-Tech firms as well. Recession is already a fore-gone conclusion, and this just pins a big hairy exclamation point on it. As far as who's responsible or on who's advice? I don't know. I do know that the Democrat dominated legislature are the ones responsible for outlining the current form of Kalifornia-style deregulation, though it was signed by a Republican governor (Pete Wilson). I'm sure that we will learn more today. Oh yeah, a lot of producers in surrounding states and Canada are worried that they may not be paid for electricity and NG already delivered. Could get "Interesting."

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 06:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47202)
RE: pandagold
I bought Harmony shares a couple of years ago and then sold some to recover my cost basis more or less. I recently bought more at under $4.00. They have about the cleanest balance sheet except for perhaps Goldfields. What is most important for me is that they are extremely profitable, represent good value, are fully leveraged/geared to the POG and don't hedge as a matter of corporate philosophy. On a per share basis they are the most profitable miners in the world. They make hedge-fund miners like Barrick look sickly and foolish. There is no excuse to sell forward unless you have no confidence in your product. If you have no confidence in your product (gold), you should get out of the business and into another. Of course, I have some physical as well (bullion and numismatic). Just can't be too careful ya know. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 06:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47203)
Black Blade

Exactly my sentiments
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 06:26:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47204)
Rhody: Silver #47195


You are probably very close to the truth. Apex, in which Soros is supposed to be involved (never can quite tell with these jokers, hence my caution), has been building up some upward thrust, recently. It is said that movement in the mines (either way) usually precedes that of the underlying metal.

This may be some way down the road, but it is these small 'factual' indicators which are the best prophesiers
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 06:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47205)
Re; pandagold - all
Oh yeah, I might add that I "liberated" a few Uruguayan 5 pesos from the castle not long ago. Since I didn't have any of those in my "collection" I grabbed a "Fist-Full!" OK, so I have a small fist, but they're nice!
tedw
(02/02/2001; 06:50:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47206)
silver
Rhody:

thanks for your post on silver. Very instructive. The education we get here is better than any school.

Just bought a December silver option. I might buy another next week.
rc
(02/02/2001; 07:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47207)
Your myopic history lesson
Stocks,Lies and Ticker TapeAs your post is not adressed to me, I am not going to elaborate. But let me tell you one thing : you still believe in Santa Klaus.
Black Blade
(02/02/2001; 07:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47208)
Uh-Oh! Gold Gets Spanked!
Gold down -$1.70 at the open in NY. Situation normal.

Unemployment Rate Rose to 4.2% in January, But Payroll Growth Was Stronger Than Expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew 268,000 in January, the biggest increase since April, the Labor Department said Friday. But the government said job growth in December was just 19,000, down from an initial estimate of 105,000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, climbed to 4.2% from 4% in December.

Black Blade: The spin is that since wages didn't rise = no inflation! Hmmm...

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 07:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 47209)
Perplexed,.......Thank you.
My familiy shares your family's connection to that raid over Schwienfort. My father in law was severely wounded while serving as a gunner on that raid. Their service and sacrifice is not forgotten.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 07:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47210)
rc,.....Please elaborate
No veteran I have ever known, fought for gold.
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 07:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47211)
Steve H #47188
What shall we do now?Steve, I have not read that article though I read everything at GE. I will get to that one this weekend.

What the internet does is provide information, mis-information, dis-information.

Knowledge, as defined in my dictionary, is:
1. The state or fact of knowing
2. Familiarity, awareness, or understanding gained through experience and study.

The internet itself is one forum for study, like a library. The knowledge is gained from the study experience using the internet. I guess the author could argue word semantics with me but it's not that important for what I have to say here.

I sent Bill Bonner at the Daily Reckoning an idea last year when he was talking about knowledge and the internet.

I have been in the computer consulting business in some way or another for 20 years. A phrase that was developed in the 1990s was "the knowledge worker." This was a name given to, for example, people who handled medical claims forms. They make decisons based on the information they are given on a specific case and a certain set of rules, but they also have some leeway. If they have doubt, of course, they send it upstairs.

The other experience of mine that led to my idea was in studying the Clinton phenomenon in the 90s. They were sold to America as the "world's most knowledgeable couple." Rhodes Scholar, lawyers, Hillary the smartest woman on the planet, blah, blah, blah. (No attacks please, it's just an example)

I told Bonner that we need to take the "knowledge" a step further and talk more about "wisdom." He did work it into one of his daily scribblings.

This is what I believe is lacking today. Leadership starts with wisdom, and we as a society, are sorely lacking wisdom today.

Just my humble opinion.

Wisdom: Understanding of what is true, right, or lasting.

Like Gold.
Crossroads
(02/02/2001; 07:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47212)
(No Subject)
Black Blade, I love your style! The grasshoppers dancing is perfect�I have a little sticker of the lead grasshopper from the show "A Bugs Life" at my desk that one of my co-workers gave me and I chuckle at your end post saying every time! Great sarcasm, especially the "Kalifornians", it reminds me of the attitude that the locals have in the small mountain town of Salida, Colorado. They say "Don't Kalifornicate our town". Too late�Can you say consumption? Anyway, post 41786 was so good, I just had to say, "Good Job!"

Randy, post 47171� spoken with class and integrity, I admire that. A good example of the quality leadership found at USA Gold.
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 08:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47213)
Ever Notice That Voting Is Like Investing?
The single biggest mistake the average investor, and I use the word loosely, makes is not getting out of a losing position.

To do so is an admition of a mistake and people, especially men, do not like to admit mistakes. So they hold on to the stock (or whatever) in the hope that the price will turn around and return to where they had originally placed their dream when they bought it.

Voters are the same way. They will defend to the death their candidate no matter what the circumstances. No matter how much truth is revealed, they just cannot admit that they made a mistake. So they will attack the truth-sayer ruthlessly.

Another part along the same lines is what stops people from voting for third party candidates. Everyone wants his/her man/woman to WIN. No one wants to be associated with a loser. In America we all want to be on the winning team.

So the masses cannot be seen to vote for a guy/girl who "doesn't have a chance."

It is a very interesting study.

ORO
(02/02/2001; 08:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47214)
Peter Asher - Euro roost

You pointed out that a mechanism was lacking in FOA's presentations as to the move towards Euro and dollars "returning home to roost" thereby causing hyperinflation. I would like to hear FOA tell it, but I will forward my own view, which might do until FOA gives his own, since I do subscribe to his view on both those issues up to a point. My main caveat about this scenario is that of the EU being politically incapable of being the main reserve currency issuer because of the effect this has on the real internal economic structure, namely that of hollowing out of industry, where very militant European labor unions and members have their memberships, and where governments have their ownership concentrated.

Another's apparent expected gold reserve structure to the Euro can provide some clue as to why the Euro seems to him and FOA capable of holding reserve status. To see this, let's first look at the dollar system. The main problem with the dollar system's structure is the inherent deflationary effect it has abroad, and the inflationary effect it has at home - with the exception of periodic deflationary bouts. The cause of the problem is that there is no such thing as a cash dollar. Each dollar is backed by a loan that created it. Thus, in order to make payment on one's debt, new dollars must be created through expansion of dollar borrowing. In the US this is a $2+ trillion demand for the year 2001. Outside the US, some $0.6 trillion is needed for this purpose, the bulk of this quantity is supplied by the US trade deficit rather than by debt expansion external to the US, though there have been relatively short periods when external debt expansion did so. These were during US recessions caused by a lack of foreign dollar debt growth in prior periods.

The lack of debt expansion causes the system to become illiquid, as has been the case since early 2000. The official sector reaction to this "systemic problem" is to encourage new debt through lower interest rates and injections of money by purchase of government and government related market debt.

The Euro reserve model apparently envisioned by Another has gold reserves within the ECB being used as a reserve asset not accessible to the Euro holder for exchange on demand, though he might mean that Euro are exchanged with gold by the ECB on the open market so as to maintain a Euro POG that balances the ECB books.

The main advantage is that this introduces a cash element to the currency system. This cash component allows the payment of existing debt with currency that is created by something other than new debt. This essentially means that Euro can be provided into the market without changing the interest rate directly. Money supply and credit can be maintained at economically driven values rather than liquidity driven values.

The secondary advantage is that the Euro liquidity needs, both internationally and within the EMU can be addressed without changing international trade patterns in a politically unacceptable and economically dangerous manner through the hollowing out effect on manufacture that is the imperative of the dollar system as it currently stands (i.e. Triffin's dilemma and the imperative of the reserve currency issuer running a trade deficit).

Though this eliminates the need for the ECB to buy and sell debt on the credit and banking markets in order to affect money supply and interest rates, being an extra degree of freedom in the ECBs portfolio of powers, it is also a source of potential new errors. If the ECB is meant to somehow maintain a balance of its marked to market books as a restriction, this still leaves too much flexibility, and the same room for error. It also retains a centralized control of the money supply and credit, and thus rather than being a step towards free markets, it is actually an inclusion of gold into the central bank direct control, and is as unlikely as it is ever so to be a net benefit to the world or to the EU. But the jury is out on their capacity to do this for now.

The escape hatch for this system as an international trade currency system is that the supply of Euro to Euro credit markets in countries outside the EU does not have to come from a trade deficit. If the ex-EU market needs Euro, the ECB can just issue them by buying gold on the markets with fresh Euro.

On the face of it, it provides the ECB with potential tools to provide the international reserve what it needs. However, I am skeptical of their ability to do this, since the temptation to obtain priviege (print up money) will stand there beckoning for expansion of credit and gold purchases.

On the dollar coming home to roost, perhaps later.


A criticism of mark to market regimes.

The Japanese experiment with mark to market regimes for real-estate was a self defeating system that caused real-estate to become the main source of security for borrowers. Such a system brings the market to stop trading real-estate, instead forcing participants to hold on to it as the realities of market cash flow's diminished stature relative to real-estate asset values makes the actual purchase of a property nearly impossible out of cash flow, and therefore of having expected future income to cover debt service. Only present owners, who do not have to finance the whole of their ownership can afford their property. Indeed, in downtown Tokyo, no land was directly sold for the whole of the decade of the 80s (BW anecdote).

The reason for mark to market regimes being irrelevant to financial instruments/securities is that the fact of the holder's purchase and sale are acts of disagreement with the market price. A buyer of a security believes it is undervalued, a seller believes it is undervalued. The market clearing price is always a temporary one, composed of the decisions of buyers and sellers as to the security value or in response to particular needs for raising or vacating cash for liquidity or arbitrage purposes. Transactions to raise or distribute capital are not such actions, as they involve judgment and choice, whereas liquidity issues - particularly on the need to raise cash - are forced, and arbitrage does not involve judgment per se.

Furthermore, as shown by the discounts and premiums to net asset value on closed end funds, there is a value assigned by the markets to the judgment of particular people and their organizations regarding their disagreement with the market (the NAV value). The same premium and discount is applied to holding companies and to companies with heavy investment portfolios, such as Berkshire Hathaway, Leucadia and others.

Finally, intentions have a large influence on the relevance of the mark to market regime to assessing book values. If a debt security or a loan is expected by the holder to be held to maturity and be paid at 100% or any particular fraction of the expected future payout, the fact that the market has different expectations is not relevant to the holder. The holder is not intending to sell at the market price. The imposition of market price on a holder's reported book value is thus a negation of that holder's presentation of his/her judgment and intentions in the most crucial of his financial information releases. It is an obfuscating rather than enlightening device.

Therefore, the forced assignment by government of particular bookkeeping practices in general, and mark to market in particular, are damaging to companies, the investing public, and the stability of the financial system.

The best way to use mark to market regimes is to supply the market value data as informational addenda that provide a baseline for comparisons to other companies rather than force the exclusive disclosure of market values.
Humble Pie
(02/02/2001; 08:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47215)
DaveC #47211
xxxxxx You are right what we need is leadership with wisdom. Life does not guarantee that we will get wisdom as we grow older .mostoften we just grow older.Politicians and diapers have one thing in common.They should both be changed regularly and for the same reason.xxxx
JMB
(02/02/2001; 08:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47216)
Goldman Sachs...it's a Hat Trick!

For three days in a row GS has stopped Gold contracts at the Comex (potentially taking delivery)...today they stopped 1207 of the 2635 Gold contracts issued.
rc
(02/02/2001; 08:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47217)
OK! I'll elaborate. (Somewhat)
Stocks,Lies and Tickers TalesYou should read what Steve H brought us today. It will explain much better what I have in mind. Here is the link:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.html

What this guy says, started already a long time ago. At least 100 years and probably more. Strange things happened from the French Revolution then onwards.

No! No US veteran ever fought for gold. They fought and got killed for an ideal. What they did not know was that there is no idealistic war. Everything turns around economy (money) and power. Basically gold as Pandagold tried to explain. You cannot send kids to war which such motives. Hence the ideal. And after all, it suited very well the American nation for the last two generations. But if they had known at that time what I know today, they would have shot their own government.

Don't get me wrong. American people is one thing, their government is something else. Your government doesn't have American people interests at heart. They follow their own agenda which is world domination and slavery for most, American included. And use American military power and blood for that purpose.
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 08:45:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47218)
Stocks, Lies and Ticker Tape

I shouldn't say any more, re has said it, I see, while I was writing this, However, it is writ, and the moving finger........


Why don't you take those emotional blinkers off, fellow knight. I reprint again part of my post to you.
You will see CLEARLY, if you become less emotional, that I anticipated you carrying this thing on, and told you I was prepared to accept whatever your mind conjured up in disagreement. But NO, you have to go on.

Where do I say, that ANY soldier fought for gold? MOST of the poor souls fought for one reason - they were forced too. Incidentally, the Russians had plenty of gold, they are one of the world's largest producers.

What was one of the first things the allies searched for after victory - German gold. Gold is behind everything, and has been, all through history. Because gold represents POWER!

The quote of mine, which should not be taken out of context, to which I refer:-

<<
Now as to 'envy.' I love America and the ordinary American people, but not those that have your country in such a tight grip. Ones who have destroyed over time, the principles on which that nation was founded.

I also love all other countries, I know personally, and the ordinary people of that country. If you had truly read my postings you would have seen that.>>>


Why do you comment on only what suits you, and ignore the rest?

Now we can all go into the - my uncle this, and my father that, and stir up emotions.

But in the knowledge that this will give away my age I will tell you - as a small child in my mothers arms I was blown from one side of the room to the other with my face full of glass, and covered in blood, from two high explosive bombs which hit simultaneously.

I saw more war, first hand, and came to near death more times, than many a serviceman, and so did many other British kids..

Do I hate my enemy because of this - No! How many of their kids did we blow across a room.

We have been brainwashed into believing so much crap about why we fight wars, that so many of us actually have come to believe it. Why did all those people really die?
Germany has been put holding a position far higher than she had ever dreamed before the war began. And so has Japan. Who helped this along? Who controls their Banks (their gold). Ah if only the truth could be revealed.

Deep down behind all this facade is one word - MONEY! (= GOLD = REAL MONEY = POWER) More than one word, I know, but they all equal the same thing.

And that is why EVERY war has been fought, and will be in the future.

Yes, many people are beginning to get wise, and this is why the TPTB are trying to develop wars where they won't have to rely on 'enlisted' men, but it can be done by just a few in white coats, or perhaps suits, pushing buttons from a concealed bunker.

At least Sir Slatt, you haven't got so far as to believing Rambo won it, and is sat there waiting for the next one.
Galearis
(02/02/2001; 08:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47219)
@Rhody
Welcome back!Kitco's loss is (all) our gain(s).

And I also applaud your restraint in NOT stating the extent of the rigging in this data as well. Perhaps in another post?

Regards,

G
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 09:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47220)
Pandagold, For someone to disagree with you
is your opportunity to immediately level the charge of "emotionalism". It gets so old.
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 09:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 47221)
Crossroads (2/2/2001; 7:49:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47212)
msg@47171 was my post to Randy, were you referring to it or to his susequent post dismissing it.
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 09:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47222)
Perplexed
Good to see you back
Thanks for your most gracious remarks. I'm pleased you enjoyed her letter. The story of the children on the hill still gets to me whenever I read it. There is an ultimate lesson in that window into a world of values so different from ours. Further along she observed "You see there are three worlds; America, the rest of the world, and Outer Mongolia. She rode further North, to an alpine area along the Russian border and stayed awhile with a tribe she called "The Reindeer People."

She later told us that she thought for a time, that she would just stay there and never go back.

I imagine you will have more then enough time to peruse chapter #1 before I get another written.I was hoping to get some dialog going on it but so far only a little denial has surfaced. E-mail however has been buzzing a bit. So far, #2 will delve into the Money Supply and #3, Big Float. #4 is tentatively titled "What if a wolf DOES come out of the forest?"
CoBra(too)
(02/02/2001; 09:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47223)
Re: ORO's latest Message -
Hope to find time later to aks a few questions - and not only on marked to market, where I have some difficulty to follow, though only in terms of real m o n e y.

Meanwhile, CPM/Usagold is absolutely unbeatable in the pricing of bullion coins, as I have just stumbled across a poster at Kitco, quoting some bullion coins 2-3% higher than MK's selling prices. Thank you - cb2
Crossroads
(02/02/2001; 09:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 47224)
(No Subject)
My mistake, Peter. Refer that to message #47189.
JMB
(02/02/2001; 09:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47225)
I'm getting that "LIFT OFF" kinda feeling

Is it for real?...or is it something I ate?
beesting
(02/02/2001; 09:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47226)
Sir JMB # 47216 A Hat Trick!
Sir, I don't suppose you are in a position to see if Goldman Sachs is placing "Orders" for an account holder, or trading for their own account.
I don't think it would be a breach of confidentially if this fact were disclosed, and it would sure enlighten a lot of us Goldhearts.
Thanks for all your posts....beesting.
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 09:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 47227)
ORO (2/2/2001; 8:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47214)
Thanks for the response, I've still to digest it. Probably only a quick read before work.

I am a bit mystified by your reference to "FOA's presentation," I never mentioned him in this. "Dollars coming home to roost." is a term I associate with the greater world of monetary discussion. If that is a term coined by FOA, I appreciate the information
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 10:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 47228)
Stocks, Lies, &. Ticker Tape

Sir Slatt, I am well used to people disagreeing with me. That has been the secret of 'their' succes, they have kept the majority hoodwinked - as all who share 'the knowledge' will testify.

If the majority of people could have seen what has been going on (and still is) then we would not be faced with this situation.

It is becoming easier as time goes on, as more and more people, from their own observation, are beginning to 'see the light'.

It could well be that there could be some truth in the clich� - give a them a length of rope, and eventually they will hang themselves. Though I doubt it, it has gone on far too long, and there have been raised voices before, and even the man who is acclaimed as 'the son of God' (though, aren't we ALL son's of God)? couldn't stop it - he paid with his life trying to.

So, I have taken the soft option. If gold is the source of their power (their cryptonite), then I should have some. And that is why I am here - to learn all there is to know about this 'cryptonite'.

When you hold real gold in your hand, you hold a piece of history. That original piece, though it now may bear the image of an American Eagle, or Chinese Panda, or Britannia, could have once been held by a Roman, ancient Greek, or been transported on a Spanish galleon, because gold is always as fresh as the day it was mined. Sometimes this gold has been melted down through the ages and turns up as a modern item.

Now this is the kind of emotion I can identify with. Don't get me wrong - not worship - just the emotion of appreciating a wonder of nature - pure, unadulterated ( well, almost) GOLD!
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 10:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47229)
Knights in Shining Armor
Since this is the "theme" hear I would like to offer up some reading material for leisure time.

The first is Michael Crichton's Timeline. An exellecnt novel, IMHO, that I read during the holidays. Travel back to 14th Century France through a time machine. Jousting, damsels in distress, all the good stuff. And a happy ending.

The second is a series of books called The Skystone by Jack Whyte. There are six books in the series, of which I have read only the first. A real page turner. Go back to Roman England and read how Excalibur was made.

The Legend of the Skystone
Out of the night sky there wil fall a Stone
That hides a maiden born of murky deeps,
A maid whose fire-fed, female mysteries
Shall give life to a lambent, gleaming blade,
A blazing, shining sword whose potency
Breeds warriors. More than that,
This weapon will contains a woman's wiles
And draw dire deeds of men; shall name an age;
Shall crown a king, called of a mountain clan
Who dream of being spawned from dragon's seed;
Fell, forceful men, heroic, proud and strong,
With greatness in their souls.
This king, this monarch, mighty beyond ken,
Fashioned of glory, singing a song of swords,
Misting with magic madness mortal men,
Shall sire a legend, yet leave none to lead
His host to triumph after he be lost.
But death shall ne'er demean his destiny who,
Dying not, shall ever live and wait to be recalled.

Enjoy.
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 10:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47230)
Crossroads msg#: 47224 & #47212
You are calling that leadership???

How about elaborating on that!
Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 10:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47231)
Excuse me but - - - DEFINE OR BE DEFINED.

O.K. folks, I'm not in a particularly charitable mood this morning, so I'm not going to mince words. Problem seems to be that I just read Black Blade's report that 56% of those polled think it's a bad idea to "open up the Arctic" to oil and natural gas exploration.

The Republicans are stupid and incompetent in dealing with the media, and thus, the sheeple.

They're stupid and incompetent because "opening up the Arctic" sounds like something they do on MASH or ER. The IMAGE is disturbing.

How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets" instead? This IMAGE is not only much closer to what actually would be done, the IMAGE is less disturbing.

And IMAGE is everything. After 12 years of government brain-washing and TV, the media is indeed the message. The sheeple can't think for themselves - - - and the few that still can, don't trust the results of that proscribed activity.

As Dr. Thomas Szasz says, "Define or be defined."

Think that's silly? Remember they've managed to tarnish inert gold with the sobriquet "barbarous relic."

Republicans seem to be getting a little smarter: They're trying to change "school vouchers" to "parental choice." Good move.

Don't know why I bother with these folks - - - I have libertarian leanings myself, don't you think?

Regards,
Journeyman
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 10:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47232)
Dave C, Journeyman

We just read "Timline" also. The historical aspect was extremely enlightening. Fleshed out some history Journeymen gave us on free trade at that time
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 10:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47233)
DaveC re-wisdom.

From Edgar Lee Masters' "Spoon River Anthology":

"Genius equals wisdom plus youth."
JMB
(02/02/2001; 10:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 47234)
BEESTING

Re the final disposition of Goldman Sach's "apparent" Gold position.

These guys are so devious, we have to be careful when we rely on their actions for guidance. I'm just a pee-wee kinda guy who's watching a whole bunch of stuff to help me in my timing for making additions to my Gold position. Lenny Kaplan, aka UPTICK at Kitco, or Bill Murphy who is in South Africa at the moment, MIGHT be able to answer your question.

Perhaps there is someone here who can get to Lenny. I'd ask myself but Kitco depresses me.
Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 10:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47235)
Unofficial Call to Contest: NO PRIZE! @ALL

"Remember they've managed to tarnish inert gold with the sobriquet 'barbarous relic.'" -Journeyman msg#: 47231

How about a contest to come up with an equivalently derogatory nickname for "fiat?"

With due respect to Black Blade (British slider, Australian peso, etc.) we need a generic term for fiat.

Let me start this unofficial contest with my favorite, "vapor paper."

Regards,
Journeyman
Old Yeller
(02/02/2001; 10:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 47236)
Rhody#47195

Rhody,thanks for providing background on the metal lease rates and their spreads.

For me,it is sometimes difficult to understand the internal machinations of this market and how it can operate in the fashion it does.If I understand you correctly,the central banks and their dutiful little subordinates must provide low cost metal to the market,in just another way of obfusicating the reality of currency debasement.If the game is becoming unprofitable and increasingly risky for the chosen ones,can we look forward to the central banks taking up the slack and continuing the process?.What are the ethical aspects of this,if and when the truth should come out?An industry is being slowly bled to death,one that has helped immeasurably to further the economic progress of many under-developed countries.

P.S.;I echo Galearis'thoughts,as a matter of fact,it's great to see both of you here.
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 10:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47237)
Journeyman #47231
How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals?"
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 10:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47238)
Peter Asher (02/02/01; 10:19:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47233)
Thanks. I will remember that one.

"Genius equals wisdom plus youth."

Got it.
goldfan
(02/02/2001; 11:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47239)
Journeyman msg#: 47235) name for fiat
How about "counterfiat" ?

Goldfan
JMB
(02/02/2001; 11:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 47240)
Journeyman
Fiat is the "Bane of Security"...or the "Bane of ?"
Whatever, it sure stinks as a store of wealth.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 11:39:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47241)
Federal Reserves' open market operations: enough is enough...for now.
The Fed's Account Manager chose to forego policy operations today at the 9:30 ET target time. Apparently yesterday's $11.485 billion injection to banking reserves via overnight, seven-day, and 28-day system repurchase agreements was enough to get us through the weekend.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 11:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47242)
Journeyman, Naming "Fiat" Contest
How about "Legal Tinder"?
Gandalf the White
(02/02/2001; 11:43:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47243)
Journeyman's msg#: 47235) name for fiat
The Hobbits say to just call it for what it is ..... colored cellulose!
<;-)
DaveC
(02/02/2001; 11:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47244)
Journeyman (02/02/01; 10:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47235)
Barbarous: 1. Wild, primitive; uncivilized. 2. Brutal; savage; cruel. 3. Uncultured or unrefined, esp. in the use of words.

Here are some contest entries:

"float note"
"fiasco fiat"

slingshot
(02/02/2001; 11:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47245)
Substitute for natural gas
What is the chemical composition of natural gas? We say natural gas all the time, but do not really know what it is. How complex is this compound. If propane is extracted as a fuel, Why couldn't Hydrogen which can be made from the byproduct of a chemical reaction, be substituted. It is a clean fuel the GRASSHOPPERS can use.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 12:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47246)
Pandagold, in reply to your post....


You write "If gold is the source of their power.....", that premise is where I find myself in such disagreement with you.

I believe Gold is Wealth, and Fiat Currency is Power.



Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 12:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47247)
Psssssst...hey guys, are you ready for Valentine's Day?
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
Call Marie to save your bacon from the fire.

(To ensure delivery by the 14th, she told me she can accept orders up to Feb. 8th.)
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 12:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47248)
Slingshot, substitute for natural gas
Natural gas is a generic term for those hydrocarbons that exist as a gas or vapor at atmospheric pressures and temperatures. Methane (CH4)is the most common and important component of natural gas and of the methane series which includes propane and ethane as well. It is found alone and in association with oil, coal, swamps, landfills etc. It is a byproduct of organic decomposition. The Gulf of Mexico has solidified natural gas in places on the seafloor also. Blue Ribbon above ground sources include termite colonies and cow flatulence!

Hydrogen unless from a well is still relatively expensive to produce.
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 12:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47249)
SLATT
You mean 'they' keep the wealth, and give you, the masses, the power (fiat money)?

Their thirst is for power, the gold is their cryptonite for that power. They control by forcing on you the fiat ( soon to be digital)

Get wise - please, Sir Slatt. Otherwise they will eat you alive. I care for you, and everyone who would find this site of interest, because somewhere, deep down, there is a vein of gold in all of us, and we all share a common interest.

I get nothing from trying to outsmart you or anyone. There is no pay dirt there. We don't know each other, at least not by sight. But we do get to know each other by something more indicative and enlightening.

I wish you well
Trail Guide
(02/02/2001; 12:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47250)
Comment

ALL:
Again, I thank everyone for their contributions here and for the chance it gives others to see how a good cross segment of hard money people think. Your posts are valuable to all that read here as they convey every aspect of understanding, from deep thought to personal responses in our changing world.

I have mentioned to USAGOLD that I will never reply to a post in a negative way again. In the future, it must be the managers / owners of this site that instill what flavor it will have, not any of us (me) with our human outcries. Thank you all for reading and supporting this venue.

USAGOLD #47148:

Thank you, Michael, for your noting my piece on the trail. There is much more to this talk as it will explain how this gold dynamic is being used for political objectives today. I hope it leads to a better understanding of, at least, the fundamental forces that have created "This New Gold Market".

Randy #47141:
Thank you, also and I will follow up on your thinking in the next Trails Talk.

------------------

ORO -- #47214 -- Euro roost

Sir, you have, more so, than many of us, offered such a fine commentary over time. I know you realize it would be impossible to reply or even comment on the full content of everything you present. I think you also realize that my drive here has been to point out bits and pieces, more so
than make full conclusions. All done in the spirit of education and extending individual awareness of the future before us, thru gold.

Some time in the future, if events progress enough, I would like a dialog with you that is more than just a small point from my end. Until then, I will simply comment, as able and appropriate in following the political trail. In that spirit, I want to comment on your post next week. I have this to add today:

----------------

We all attempt, if the drive is in us, not to only understand, but also influence the leaders that work for us. In that respect, as a nation state, country, or society of peoples, our eventual goal must be more than just life itself.

This vessel we call life, this planet of us, this body of soles nearest our abode, is far too all consuming for any one master or group of masters to guide or even control by themselves. In this, every one among us should strive to add their difference. But none should be so bold not to lose track of what the world is here for; enjoying and living the time we have.

If lucky, some make it up several decks on our ship and even see the captain's view on occasion. If even more fortunate, he might have a word with the mind that is the wheel. It isn't always what we want to hear:

---------------

this life is so large our cargo so great
we trust you know how to go

Of course say he with clarity in sight
from my direction my assistants do know

with blank map in hand he makes his plan
and tugs with a tear then a bow

later, admits he, I must swear to thee
the land HO we seek, must still grow

----------------

So, my ORO that shines as gold, after the trip perhaps our experience will be a recount of a journey that was maped along the way. No matter the outcome, no matter the path taken we are all just people on the river of life.

As the "NewGuy" said of the one deemed more knowing in my story of the Country Club Bar #45944---

--- He's Right, Ya Know!"----------

(Smile)
TrailGuide
beesting
(02/02/2001; 12:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47251)
Journeyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!
A Derogatory Nickname for "fiat"!Here are a few:
1. Mock Money.
2. Real Wealth Busters.
3. Unintangible Trade Ables.

But really, I think the word "Fiat" itself is an intentional misspelling of Counter"feit"===="Fiat"....only a poor speller(Me) would pick up on that......beesting.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 13:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47252)
Pandagold, WOW! Did you ever miss my point!
Again: I believe Gold is Wealth and Fiat Currency is Power.

We both agree that gold is wealth. Fiat currency is in my mind a definition of power. I am forced by law to accept it in payment. Those in power "create" it out of thin air, and use everything in my country (myself included) as collateral. Its very existence robs me of purchasing power through inflation. I am forced to either spend or risk (i.e. invest) this fiat currency to just keep up with inflation. The fiat currency prevents people from the guaranteed accumulation of wealth. Gold provides people the opportunity to secure wealth over the long term.
auspec
(02/02/2001; 13:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47253)
Trail Guide
This is a brightly lit path we now follow, thank you.
sstins
(02/02/2001; 13:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47254)
Journeyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!
Confetti

or

Confiatti
auspec
(02/02/2001; 14:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47255)
Journeyman
A Derogatory name For Fiat?Fiat $pyder! Oh what a web we weave, when first we practice to deceive. Some are getting downright good at it after all this practice. All these contests- next thing you know thery'll be a lottery here?
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 14:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47256)
Slatt

I give up. I know what you are trying to say Sir Slatt, it is just a strange way to put it. Your argument put in the way you set out argues against itself. In one breath you tell me that fiat money is power, and then you say that having it robs you of power.

The people who force it on you have the power over you. (they also have the gold, that gives them the power to dish up the fiat money to you - thereby robbing you of power. While they hold the gold, they can dish out dog poo to you, putting it crudely. (Theoretically dog poo as a fertilizer could be more valuable than fiat that had become worthless through hyperinflation)

I feel sure this is what you are trying to say (I hope)

Phew! If this don't work, can someone else explain.

Wishing you well
Christopher
(02/02/2001; 14:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 47257)
Journeyman- contest entry
American Rupee
Western Omelet
U.S. Duller
The Unreale
The Cantinental
The Lower G.I. Bill
Waterboy
(02/02/2001; 14:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47258)
Slingshot and Slatt - natural gas
Hello to all. This is my first post here, although I have been lurking for some time.

There are not too many AU words left, except for AUsome, which seems a little overwhelming considering my very limited expertise in financial subjects, in comparison with the competence and knowledge of others that post here. So as a handle I chose a name which better represents the level of postings that I might make.

Slingshot, we do not "make" hydrogen, but rather separate the hydrogen from the carbon using methane as a feedstock in a device known as a reformer. This how virtually all commercial hydrogen is produced, and is further the intended method of producing hydrogen for fuel cell operation. You may have noticed that natural gas (methane) supplies are just a little tight, as judged by the recent price escallation. You may also have read of plans to produce more than 300 new natural gas fired power plants in the near (as fast as we can) future. You may also have read that we are drilling like mad in the lower 48 states, and in the western Canadian sedementary basin, but very little additional gas is being produced. Additional gas IS being found, but mostly in smaller wells, while older wells are depleting rapidly. We are mostly running in place.

There are significant natural gas sources available to North America, but development is several years away.

Electricity is the current problem with the grasshoppers, but natural gas will be next, and this will get to the ants as well.

Meanwhile, where is the natural gas coming from to fuel the new natural gas fired generators, and where is the natural gas coming from to make the hydrogen to power the new fuel cell vehicles?

Waterboy

slingshot
(02/02/2001; 14:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47259)
Stocks, Lies and Ticker Tape
msg 47248Thank you for your explaination of natural gas. See! You learn something new everyday.
Slingshot
R Powell
(02/02/2001; 14:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47260)
Fiat =

financially flamable fibers frequently + frivolously fabricated for further fleecing from the foolishly frolicking flock. Any price for length of definition?
Rich
slingshot
(02/02/2001; 14:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47261)
Waterboy
Welcome Aboard! Thank you for your insight into natural gas. Ants have to cover all the bases you know or no one else will. This is a great forum!
Slingshot
Artie Farkle
(02/02/2001; 14:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47262)
Journeyman #47237
FIAT = PLAYDOUGH
R Powell
(02/02/2001; 14:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47263)
JMB and Beesting
Attention G-E forum visitors
Concerning the gold contract stopper (47216) or the identity of Goldman's client, perhaps someone might ask at G-E forum. They seem to have some inside brokeragehouse knowledge. Beesting, (47226) I thought the same when I read JMB's "hat trick" report.
Buffet was able to accumulate 89 million ounces of silver over many months in the summer and fall of 1997 before a lawsuit was filed against Pilbro (his broker) which forced him to reveal himself. Even without a name, the stopping rather than position offsetting bears watching. I hope whoever it is has lots of storage space and deep, deep pockets!
Rhody, thanks for the lease rate analysis.
Rich
Broken Tee
(02/02/2001; 14:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47264)
Journeyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!
Bogus Bucks
Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 14:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 47265)
Only 3 @Gandalph the White

Yur right, Wiz!! I don't know what the attendance was, but we probably must conclude A. The Tampa PD NEEDS a test run, B. few Super Bowl fans are wanted, or C. wanted criminals were working during the Super Bowl, or . . .

By the way, looks like those gray clouds settled on Wall Street!

Regards,
Journeyman
Farfel
(02/02/2001; 15:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47266)
COT report on GOLD, today
Commercials are still heavily long gold (approx. 55,000 contracts)

Small specs are still extremely short (approx. 64,000 contracts)

I cannot remember the last time the big commercials stayed long gold for this duration of time.

Thanks

F*

slingshot
(02/02/2001; 15:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47267)
Fiat contest
Fiatrasize. The destruction of ones personal wealth by the accumulation of F.R.N.'s or other promisary note not backed by physical gold or silver.

Fiatra - noun.
Slingshot
ORO
(02/02/2001; 15:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47268)
Journeyman - fiat derogation contest
I propose

"the products of the bulls' stampede"

either in name or in reference.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 15:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47269)
Pandagold, a clarification


Fiat currency is a financial instrument used by the powerful to deny wealth accumulation between generations of the powerless.

This concludes yet another post to you Panda in which neither condescension nor sarcasm was applied in response to your writings. Perhaps someday you will see fit to extend the courtesy?



Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 15:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47270)
Keep 'em warm too! @-DaveC msg#: 47237
Hi DaveC!

Yep, that's definitely a friendly amendment!

"How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals?" -DaveC msg#: 47237 [Re: Journeyman #47231]

Black Blade pointed out the caribou huddle around the Alaska pipe-line to keep warm, after all! Do they have to heat a NG gas-line too??

If so, how about:

"Taking a few samples and then laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals ." ;)

Regards,
Journeyman
Pandagold
(02/02/2001; 15:32:59 MDT - Msg ID: 47271)
SLATT
So??? Isn't that what I have been saying, Fiat is a tool (just one) of those WITH the POWER, to rob you of POWER,

Fiat is NOT the power, merely a tool. Having a truck full of
Deutschmarks during the German depression would not have given you power, so how can you call it power. It is merely one tool of those with power. Another is media, do you need me to go on?

I am trying to be as sweet as I can to you - do you need me to give you a kiss? Sorry,but I am not into that sort of thing.



Now can we quit on this
ORO
(02/02/2001; 15:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 47272)
Trail guide - something to look forward to
Thank you for your comments and the intended commentary on the political aspects.

Also, I very much appreciate your continued engagement with us forum habitues, despite the many frappe's and mud slingers. I know that for some, it takes an effort to ignore people addressing "you" directly. (As my mom, and later my wife have told me, I don't have that problem.)

Thanks
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 15:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47273)
ORO (#: 47214), thanks again for doing the yeoman's work which has become your hallmark
I believe I shall add this good overview (along with some helpful words that have been collecting over past months) to the monetary discussion found in the Hall.

Your analysis is remarkable, though you still seem to be oversensitive (very bad choice of word, perhaps "overskeptical to the possibility for progress") to the fact that we find ourselves living in an imperfect world. And yet here we are, warts and all, and look how far we've come!

Even this (our current one) worst of all conditions -- the patchwork fiat dollar system following the inevitable 1971 default on the gold exchange standard -- functioned (albeit with much international assistance/cooperation/political will) for three decades. And yet, the exorbitant privilege remained for U.S. to the detriment of others. No one is looking for perfection at the next stage of the game, just a more level playing field...again, warts and all. No room for optimism?

As I look to close this, please allow me the courtesy of utilizing one of your comments completely out of your intended context to make a small point that might let some find a new appreciation for decisions regarding wealth and currency. From a line in your post:

"mark to market regimes ... purchase and sale are acts of disagreement with the market price. A buyer of a security believes it is undervalued, a seller believes it is undervalued."

Stated as such, this reopens the old discussion of profit and motive. Are decisions made (and life made better thereby) in the quest to capture shares of "price"? In the above example, we could also say that each side believes them self to be getting an advantage from the trade that would not exist without the trade...hence, the trade occurs...to secure ownership of something that is needed more than what was offered. Otherwise, one side would balk, and keep their original position, whether it be an item, currency, a service, gold, etc.

When looking to buy and sell gold versus dollars, moreso than being guided by the motive to make a score in dollar profits, some bright thinkers living in the "here and now" with a mind for "tomorrow" buy gold at every turn for the security advantage not found in the paper dollars representing the equal market price.

As a market participant, when we sell our dollars for gold instead, we trade for this advantage, today. What comes tomorrow, if our thoughts have served us well, is icing on the cake. Lots of icing!

got advantage?
CoBra(too)
(02/02/2001; 15:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47274)
Parlez vous ecomomese? sil vous plait!
Or as Bloomberg puts it into plain English - another language I seem to have difficulty to understand - : The U.S economy added three times as many jobs as expected last month as health care, mortgage (!) banks and builders stepped up hiring, suggesting the service companies are still growing as manufacturing slides. While it seems understandable to me, that the lenders care for your health and the mint condition of your mortgaged home to have you forever indebted, I'm at a loss as to why the jobless rate rose to 4,2% from 4% in the same time.
Is it the same B(o.L.)S (Bureau of Labour Stats)adding up the CPI, WPI numbers, sans volatile components, which may add only to confusion, though keeping constipation at bay hurray, no wage/price inflation. And I don't even want to go into the two measures mentioned for loss of consumer confidence, since they're more than clear and I might be adding a few. But, then I fear I'd write throughout the night.
And how about bias if you read the press tonight. First week in the year to see SM's end slightly lower.
Well, I would have expected a hell of rally, carrying the markets to new all time highs, as in all's well in consumers paradise, as some say paradigm, hmmm!
What in hell, else would one expect after an unprecedented 100 bp's drop in interest rates in mere 4 weeks? - Not this kind of virtual hangover, for sure. Though, all of that economese is clearly explained by the boss of the FED, as a typical "V"-shaped outlook on same, arguing in antuique, oblique greenspeak, that, due to productivity the landing will be happily - in oblivity!
Which brings me to Journey Man's Fiat-$ (
or FRN - a Function of Regression towards NIL- as any other fiat), by description FIAT = FIASCO, depending on the relative timeline as an utility of futility.
X'cuse my ramblings - though utilise, with some surprise the value fiat still holds ... and exchange it for gold's -timeless value of old. - True! cb2







Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 16:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47275)
Small, bite-sized picture
http://ichart.yahoo.com/t?s=^IXICWorth 1,000 words. The business cycle will likely suffer well before "small dollars" begin to measure these markets larger.

Choose your concept of value wisely.
Trurl
(02/02/2001; 16:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47276)
Fiat contest
Taking a page from American history, I have long used the phrase 'legal tenders' in describing our money. This was used as a disparaging term during the US civil war when referencing the then new unconvertable greenback.

remember -- those who don't know history, are doomed to hear it repeated...
Henri
(02/02/2001; 17:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47277)
The Joy of "Giving" and learning how to "Receive" as well
There once was a man who through no fault of his own found himself in such dire financial straits that he could not even feed his family. All the village folk became aware of his plight and offered help in abundance. But the man steadfastly and stubbornly refused any and all acts of charity. He said he would never be bheholding to any man while he lived and breathed. Eventually, out of grave concern for the other family members, some but small children, the village folk devised a means whereby work was provided for the man by which he could be paid and so begin to make his way out of his desparate situation. Much later the man would boast of the merits of hard work, self-reliance'self-respect and so-on to such an extent that in the end very few of the village folk who actually knew what had occurred could abide his company. Many wondered privately if any good had actually been done save keep the children from starving. Frequently he would be found, after a bout of drinking to his own prowess, soundly thrashed and bleeding by a band of unknown assailants. Mysteriously, no-one among the village folk ever actually witnessed such an event so as to identify the perpetrators.

This past Christmas season I received an unexpected holiday gift from a friend. The most beautiful gifts are those that are unanticipated. It caused me much consternation in that I had not even considered this person, a dear friend, as someone to whom I would have thought to give a gift. What to do! Should I run out and purchase something belatedly to return the sentiment? Even the thought of doing this somehow seemed to degrade the beauty of the gift I had received. I became a bit angry. How dare this person cause me all this moral turpitude! Isn't there some kind of protocol to gift giving that prevents such distress to those that receive them! Then I saw myself. When I find myself getting upset I always try watch myself quietly and objectively from a place other than the world of mainstream worldly interaction. I do not judge myself usually...just observe. This time I truly did not like what I saw. I realized, in that space between myself, that there is in fact an etiquette in the manner in which to graciously "receive" a gift. One should absolutely acknowlege the giver...but not immediately return the gift lest he diminish the joy of the person who did the giving. A simple "thank you" will suffice.

A true gift, the ones that really leave you flabbergasted, are not given with the intention of getting something in return. And so I at once learned not only how to properly "receive" a gift but also what "giving" was about as well. Of course I put this person on my "suprise" gift list for a time in the future when I could enjoy the act of giving as well...but more importantly, I began to make a list of people who I wanted to drop the gift bomb on...just for the joy of it and to see if it caused the same reaction in them as happened to me. There were of course those who I knew would not appreciate the simple beauty of it. Then there were those that I thought might. It turned out to be a list of some very dear old friends that I had not seen or heard from in a long while. Those whom I hold out as examples hope for what humanity should be all about.

How many of us (and I include myself) have closed ourselves to the idea that help is something that we can just graciously accept as a gift. What protocol exists that says we must earn or repay our way in this world even when we desparately need help. What quality of humanity insists that we never acknowlege that we even need help...that we must muddle on alone by our own devices to get by. Must we always suspiciously look every gift horse in the mouth?

I look at the writings of "Another" and "FOA" as simple gifts given for the joy of sharing their knowlege or insight without the expectation of return. I also perceive that they enjoy the element of interaction and the opportunity to understand how they can make their message clearer. "Trail Guide" and "Another"...thank you. Should your scenario unfold as it seems to be doing albeit on an indeterminate schedule, I am certain we will come to a fuller understanding by reading your posts in retrospect.

So many gifts await us if we could only acknowlege them for what they are and not question their appearence. When we are most in need of comfort...after great tragedy...or just from being flat worn out with the struggle of life...when we cannot see our way clear out of a very difficult situation, what is it that prevents us from making that "leap of faith" that separates us from those who would help us. Consider the man who refuses outright charity. How like him we are. Why must we always make it so difficult to receive help directly. Gifts in abundance await us if we could but drop the pretense of trying to be so damned self-sufficient. We are not sufficient unto ourselves. We are nothing without others to interact with.

God, Jesus, the Great Spirit (or whatever your specific affiliation) want to help us but there is a barrier that they cannot penetrate to offer their guidance and wisdom. That barrier is erected by us. Like the village folk in the story above, it is not that they would not help us in our hour of need, but it is us that will not allow them to. I am certain that by now I am, for one, well advanced on their list of people who are beyond hope of ever seeing what is happening around them. Here is the suprising thing. They are not allowed to help until things are really really desparate unless we can put aside our pride and just ask for help. It is like a door that we can only open from our side. Try this simple test. Next time the world chews you up and spits you out...try...just try and ask for help from above. Then just wait and see what happens. Be attentive, the answers are revealed subtly. Indeed, why even wait until the world beats us up before asking for divine guidance outright? Is it really the world doing this to us? Maybe it is just Someone trying to get our attention?

Will God really be angry if we ask for His help without trying to solve our own problems first? Isn't this what got us thrown out of the "Garden of Eden" in the first place? Trying to do for ourselves? We were banished to eternal toil for this. Will He let us back in if we just drop the pretense? Perhaps one at a time?
Henri
(02/02/2001; 17:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47278)
Fiat contest
What is wrong with just leaving it as fiat? Its a four letter word beginning with "f" which when spoken with a derogatory intonation perfectly expresses what it is all about.
lamprey_65
(02/02/2001; 17:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47279)
It's no coincidence, folks
http://www.bookmarkusa.com/goldweekly.jpgGold was stopped in its tracks right at the downtrendline... check the link above.

Compression continues.

The breakout from this pattern, whether up or down, will be violent.

Mr Gresham
(02/02/2001; 17:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47280)
Henri
Thank you.
Topaz
(02/02/2001; 17:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47281)
Waterboy (02/02/01; 14:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47258)

Hello and welcome Waterboy,
I thought I'd grab your attention early ie: while you are still back here with the Jaffa-throwers, as your first post indicates you are destined to move to the front of the hall in quick time.
With regard to "H", is it feasable to produce same on a small scale ie: ehough to power a "stand-alone" domestic fuel-cell?
Mr Gresham
(02/02/2001; 17:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47282)
Journeyman
Having read a few of the contributions below, I'm not thinking of new names for Fiat, but, with recent memory of puppies and kittens added to households, I think you could say that its users have been "Paper Trained". (And something related to "House Broken" might follow from that.)

Still nap-groggy, so I can't quite reach that Italian derogatory acronym for Fiat cars, that goes something like "Fix-a It-a All-a Time-a".

(Sorry, I really LOVE Italian, and I envy you, DaveC, living there! I hope I haven't offended any Sicilians, having survived them in junior high in N.J.)
JavaMan
(02/02/2001; 17:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47283)
All...
ORO in your msg#: 47272 You said: "I know that for some, it takes an effort to ignore people addressing "you" directly."

And you are so right. Perhaps a little support on that line of thinking is in order, as well as in response to what we have been seeing all to much of since Inauguration day if not before.

From the book of Proverbs, chapter 26, v3-v5:

3. A whip for the horse, a bridle for the ass,
And a rod for the fool's back.

4. Answer not a fool according to his folly,
Lest thou also be like unto him.

5. Answer a fool according to his folly,
Lest he be wise in his own conceit.

The point of v.3 is that you cannot reason with a fool: v.4 gives the reason. If you answer not according to his folly, he will think he is wise like yourself. If you do answer him according to his folly, he will think you are a fool like he is. These are finely stated facts, not commands.

JavaMan: In other words, it is a lose-lose proposition, you cannot argue with fool and expect to win. Gosh, I love that Companion Bible! And if I may be so bold as to offer an application of such words of wisdom, it is these: That's what the scroll bar on the right edge of your browser is for!


CoBra(too) your msg#: 47274...

"Which brings me to Journey Man's Fiat-$ (or FRN - a Function of Regression towards NIL- as any other fiat), by description FIAT = FIASCO, depending on the relative timeline as an utility of futility. X'cuse my ramblings - though utilise, with some surprise the value fiat still holds ... and exchange it for gold's -timeless value of old. - True! cb2 "

There have been many creative suggestions in response to Sir Journeyman's call to contest, but surely, your's takes the prize.

Hmmm, so Journeyman, is this a "democratic" contest, the winner declared by the majority vote?
Let's have at the "official" rules of the contest. Inquiring minds want to know.


And Sir Randy, your msg#: 47275...yes, a picture is worth a thousand words and billions of dollars, no?

Sir Henri! Your msg#: 47277...is Priceless...It brought tears to my eyes. No! More than that. It's the kind of message that should be forever honored by the forum to show that there is more to be valued than gold. Well... is there???!!! I say...yes! I submit this work to the Hall Of Fame. In addition, it should have a special place of prominence that reflects its appeal to humanity. Seek wisdom before fine gold and silver.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 17:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47284)
Journeyman...fiat currency "contest". A great idea with great participation!
My entry is perhaps too cumbersome to rival Keynes quip of "barbarous relic" for the gold standard, but here it is nonetheless.

Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man.

A device as useful as civilization itself, and every bit as problematic. A good substitute for tangible wealth? No. To be sure, it (fiat currency) is not. We seek to acquire gold as a precise parallel to the reason and degree we may seek to be self-reliant and independent in a civilized world.

Of civilization, we say that membership has its privileges, though we must exercise care, because dependence has its pitfalls.

In currency we see written the story of mankind. The chapter with gold appeals to all choosing to live an active and thoughtful life, not just riding the currents to "go hapless with the flow".

got balance?
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 17:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47285)
Pandagold, I grow weary ....
As gold is forever so is your condescension and sarcasm. At least I can count on that.
Leigh
(02/02/2001; 17:48:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47286)
Foolish Questions
I've been cringing this afternoon with fear that my posts have been among those Trail Guide considers foolish! Please forgive me, TG, Randy, MK, or others if that's the case! I hope you'll realize that my questions are asked in ignorance, and not as challenges or insults. I'll try to stop asking so many, or at least stop asking you directly, and you can conveniently choose to bypass them if you choose.

DaveC, there's a chance our family may go to Sicily for a wedding this summer. Do you live near there?
lamprey_65
(02/02/2001; 17:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 47287)
Oil, Gold, and the Dollar...
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htmFrom today's Bear Thoughts...

"Oil rose $1.37 to $31.19 and a new high for the move after OPEC made more rumblings about cutting production again. Recall that the bulls told us that oil had topped out and that Uncle Al could feel free to print up all of the money he wanted to, and it would not be inflationary. Oops, wrong again. The CRB ended the week poised for a new high next week. A sharp breakout next week would confirm that inflationary pressures are accelerating. The only thing that will bring down commodities is for stocks and the economy to suddenly implode, which could certainly happen. Short of that, they're going to blastoff, which will probably cause the same result anyway. Gold fell $1.40. Lease rates began moving up slightly today, which is another confirmation
signal that something may be happening in gold soon. The pure gold HUI fell a touch. I'm probably not even going to bother with the XAU anymore. With PD in the index, it's not really worth much as an indicator. The dollar bounced a touch as the US dollar index rose half a percent. The euro fell back through 94 cents but found buyers at the Jan downtrend line that it took out yesterday. The dollar continues to be the key to the bubble. When it breaks hard, it's game over for stocks, and it will likely do it overnight so be aware of that."
JavaMan
(02/02/2001; 18:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47288)
Lady Leigh !!!
It is a common saying that "the only stupid question is the one that doesn't get asked".

I, for one, appreciate your penetrating observations. Keep 'em comin' kid.
CoBra(too)
(02/02/2001; 18:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47289)
@ Henri - a great allegory!
... and as I may feel the same way, we all - and to no avail - just don't want to accept the trail, so clearly outlined and defined by a friend of another, and we don't bother - to stall on the way and stray for the simple reason, that we have to replay, the kind of "treason" kids don't accept as a given concept!
... As boomers surmise - Nike should - get them to their paradise - without a "hike" and despite of walking in the shoes of giants - we arrogants are sulking about the diffuse dues - we've been stalking on air-cushioned shoes.
... Jogging? - to get to the end, before knowing the bend of our destiny - logging, the trend to reality!
- Only one has walked on water, some on hot air and bungee jumpers rely on the flexibility of rubbery morals - you see. Let's hope the eco "V" has a wee chance of a pedigree. - cb (too)
Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 18:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47290)
Democracy? @JavaMan, Randy
Hi Java, & the teacher formerly known as TC,

I didn't really expect such a large response! But I had toyed with the idea of voting, however hadn't considered the logistics.

Suggestions?

Regards,
Journeyman
JavaMan
(02/02/2001; 18:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 47291)
Sir Journeyman...
Har...The teacher formerly know as TC...I love it! Yet Sir Randy has much wisdom to share and I hope (am confident) he will continue to do so.

You said: "I didn't really expect such a large response"

Yes, certainly a better response than your effort to attract animosity from the dems and repubs re: your previous fiasco but, I say...it was your idea...call it as you see it.

Canuck
(02/02/2001; 19:02:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47292)
@ Pandagold and SLaTT
Hey boys, it's the weekend, how about playing a new record.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/02/2001; 19:04:09 MDT - Msg ID: 47293)
Journeyman and company
Again, let me put aside all notions that I am any resemblance to a "teacher" (I lack the skill) or that I provide any manner of "leadership" at this forum. On this latter element I rely solely upon the stated guidelines and our participants' good judgement to honor them and stay on topic as our only form of "leadership". Otherwise, were I to attempt to serve in such a role it would be inevitable that my efforts would prove equally ineffective. But worse, by stepping up to such a role I would lose all independence of action -- becoming a Gen. Kutuzov in this small Tolstoian tale in which we are caught between war and peace. Even now I find myself to be ensnared and somewhat limited by the collective will of the group.

On your "contest" and choice of selecting a winner, the voice of experience admits such work to be very demanding. I advise against it! The fun is in the participation.

Speaking of participation, I would like to take an honest poll from our regulars and lurkers...as many as possible. In a very brief commentary, please express your HONEST emotions and opinions regarding your reaction to the content of what I posted as my entry (msg#: 47284) to Journeyman's "contest".

Consider this to be akin to drilling a test hole to determine the nature of the strata upon which we may all gain insight into our underlying foundation of thought.
Canuck
(02/02/2001; 19:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47294)
Off the cuff
FIAT:

Financially Inadequate (and) Artificial Tender

(Wow! Just got home 15 minutes ago and only half a beer into the night!!)

Have a great week-end golden warriors!!!!

May the truth of your GOLD only surpass the wisdom of your thoughts.

Canuck.
Henri
(02/02/2001; 19:18:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47295)
Randy - Comment
future integrity of his fellow man.You said:

"...Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

I really liked this part and thought it stood well on its own.

To the extent that one choses to believe in his fellow man, he can attribute value to the civilization's acknowledgement of value.

To those who know the essence of fiat, so they know how fragile our civilization has become.
beesting
(02/02/2001; 19:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 47296)
A Horrible Thought!
This Post is Off Limits to Kalifornia Legislators!!*This post is done without research, so it may not be completly accurate.
How did the U.S. Federal Government get so far in debt?
Well, I believe current National debt first started when the then President declared a National emergency.
He than somehow got a bill through the Congress and Senate that Authorized the Government to create "money" that didn't exist. The U.S. Treasury than issued emergency "bonds or notes", sold them thru the banking system and "Bingo"money was created.
How did they get anybody to buy the bonds?
Well they offered a higher rate of return compared to what other borrowers were paying and put a Government gaurantee on it.....over and over again until we have the present 6.5 trillion in debt system.

Now does anybody still reading see where I'm going with this? All the Governor of Kalifornia has to do is declare a statewide emergency due to the energy shortage(Many Thanks Sir Black Blade) have the Kalifornia treasury issue some type of "bonds" with a high rate of return which I believe he already did........and then pass emergency legislation authorizing the State of Kalifornia to operate the "STATE" budget on a deficit,,,and from now till doomsday the state goes further and further in debt because the Governor doesn't want to make the immediate "TAX" burden to great on the "Ants" of Kalifornia or they'll leave the state or rebel.

I hate to say this folks but if Kalifornia does this every state in the U.S. may attempt to do it to gain more revenue for their uncontrolable tax and spend ways.
This deficit spending may be already going on in some states, I don't know,,,,but up to this point I thought all states had to have an annual balanced budget.

Does everybody understand what Another/FOA, ORO, and others have been saying about all paper money systems? They all collapse at some point because of excess paper money creation. Now does it make sense to buy a little more physical Gold? Thanks for Reading....beesting.

AEL
(02/02/2001; 19:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47297)
off a second cuff

Canuck (02/02/01; 19:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 47294)
Off the cuff
FIAT: Financially Inadequate (and) Artificial Tender

......... Fiscally Irresponsible Artificial Tender?
......... Fiduciarily Insane Accendible Tinder?
......... (back to lurking and sipping whiskey) .......
beesting
(02/02/2001; 19:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47298)
Follow up to post # 47292
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010202/ts/power_woes.htmlKalifornia just created 10 billion dollars!...beesting.
Econoclast
(02/02/2001; 19:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47299)
Just warming my feet by the fire...
Journeyman--
How about "wallet paper". Otherwise, I like playdough--easy to convey the silliness to the masses.
Randy--
In regards to your post, I agree wholeheartedly- Gold=Freedom.
TG--
Thank you for cooling off.
To All--
Reading through last week...Jeez! It seems to have settled down but there are still remnants of the bickering. I have very little to say with all the great discussion that usually goes on here. I just try to digest. When it degenerates like it did, especially personal attacks on truly great minds who are freely giving of their time and effort, I have even less to say.
Paying a small commission for free, timeless wealth! Do it while you still can!
Back to lurking...
beesting
(02/02/2001; 19:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47300)
Another Follow up to post 47292.
The world currency charts all gained strength today.
Why?
Because the U.S. dollar just got inflated by 10 billion Kalifornia dollars....events unfolding before our eyes if we know how to interpret them....beesting.
SHIFTY
(02/02/2001; 20:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47301)
The Austrian face of the EUROS
http://www.austrian-mint.com/e/euromuenz.htmlIs this what the EURO looks like?


$hifty
Journeyman
(02/02/2001; 20:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47302)
Flawed measurement device @Randy, ALL

Hi again Sir Randy,

Didn't intend to put a trip on you. Didn't mean you had to necessarily be THE teacher, we're all part teacher part student aren't we?

My reaction to the rest of your post, specifically that:

"Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human
civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

I don't think a con-game forced on our ancestors by fraud is a good measure of human civilization (which word derives from "living in 'cities'").

Further, it seems to me, it isn't a very good idea to measure man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man by using such an involuntary and flawed indiscriminate construct, originally designed by the banking insiders to rip the rest of us off, as the ruler for measuring integrity.

Further still, blind faith in ALL our fellow men is often a serious mistake -- for both sides -- as I think you may have confessed in your reluctance to be teacher.

Independence with judicious trust of only a few and only when necessary, is in my opinion, better and safer for all concerned. Else the substrate for growth of "moral hazard" has been liberally spread.

Regards,
Journeyman
Waterboy
(02/02/2001; 20:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47303)
@Topaz
http://www.plugpower.con/home.cfmThanks for welcome.

Plug power is developing fuel cells for domestic applications. These units will supplly electrical power for homes, using natural gas or propane as the fuel. Read all about them at the link above. Ready in two years, or so they say.

FCEL Energy is developing larger units for commercial stationary applications. Web site easily found with a search.

Ballard Power is leader in units for mobile applications.

Hope this helps.

Waterboy
Waterboy
(02/02/2001; 20:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47304)
oops link wrong
http://www.plugpower.com/home.cfmcom not con
RAP
(02/02/2001; 20:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47305)
Journeyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!
FIAT.COM
Chris Powell
(02/02/2001; 20:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47306)
Latest dispatch from GATA Chairman Murphy's South Africa tour
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/638More good meetings, and a great story
in the Durban Daily News.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/638

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
ET
(02/02/2001; 20:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47307)
Randy

Hey Randy - thanks for all you do around here. It is appreciated.

As regarding your call for comments - I would like to disagree with a portion of your assessment.

You wrote;

"My entry is perhaps too cumbersome to rival Keynes quip of "barbarous relic" for the gold standard, but here it is
nonetheless.

"Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the
embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

Here is where we disagree. Fiat or debt currency is the embodiment of man's willingness to take advantage of other's good nature. Men allow this franchise because they don't know any better or are forced into this situation by law, or both. It is a political contrivance for gain by the holders of the franchise. It is morally dishonest, regardless of the so-called "benefits" attributed to its existence.

"A device as useful as civilization itself, and every bit as problematic. A good substitute for tangible wealth? No.
To be sure, it (fiat currency) is not. We seek to acquire gold as a precise parallel to the reason and degree we may
seek to be self-reliant and independent in a civilized world."

Yes, but I hope you are not making the assumption that fiat currency and civilization are joined at the hip. I am sure we will find that civilization can and will prosper without the benefit of this contrivance.

"Of civilization, we say that membership has its privileges, though we must exercise care, because dependence has
its pitfalls.

"In currency we see written the story of mankind. The chapter with gold appeals to all choosing to live an active
and thoughtful life, not just riding the currents to "go hapless with the flow".

"got balance?"

I applaud your stance concerning holding physical gold as a wealth asset and money. However, I disagree with the notion that fiat currencies "must" exist for the good of mankind, etc. They are nothing more than a legalized racket that we have been led to believe is either "good for us" or "unavoidable". We, as a society or civilization, have not yet grown weary enough to shed these chains. I'm afraid if we don't, we will go the way of other societies which embraced fiat currencies and now, no longer exist. Gold will not guarantee the survival of a society. Only man's desire to benefit from mutual cooperation will fill the bill.

got cooperation?
ET
(02/02/2001; 20:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47308)
AEL

Hey AEL - good to see you back!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(02/02/2001; 21:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47309)
Canuck , Pandagold
Canuck: I will take your advice, so down a few for me!

Panda: You are a good joust! May we begin next week differently? I wish you a delightful weekend.
SHIFTY
(02/02/2001; 21:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 47310)
Journeyman's no prize contest
Trash Cash


$hifty
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 22:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47311)
Randy, ET
Per Randy's >>> please express your HONEST emotions and opinions regarding your reaction to the content of what I posted as my entry (msg#: 47284) to Journeyman's "contest"<<<.

Gee, Randy. Who'd'a thought that twelve hours later we would totally agree on something
Re your >>>Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man.<<<<

You may not recall that in discussing this last year I mentioned Dun & Bradstreet's motto "Credit, Man's Confidence in Man." I have called fiat, "production chits", "entitlement chits", "ledger entries" and "rights to production." Your "man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man" perfectly describes the expectancy that having produced something of specified value, or having made a commitment to deliver that in the future, one can count on receiving equal value in kind from another member of society.

It is the absence of this confidence and/or the validity of it, that creates the need for Gold to verify the bond.

ET: I see the truth in what you say in the form of the following translation:

You said >>>Fiat or debt currency is the embodiment of man's willingness to take
advantage of other's good nature. Men allow this franchise because they don't know any better or
are forced into this situation by law, or both. It is a political contrivance for gain by the holders
of the franchise. It is morally dishonest, regardless of the so-called "benefits" attributed to its
existence.<<<

How about, ----Fiat or debt currency permits �GOVERNMENTS and those of ill intent' to take advantage of other's good nature. ----- It becomes a vehicle for the morally dishonest which leads to the destruction of the benefits created by it's existence.

It is not the �use' of fiat that is the problem. It is the �abuse' of it. Only (tax) free-gold can offset the susceptibility of "ledger entry money" to having its redemption value altered. Only in a totally honest, ethical world, would gold cease to be needed as a monetary anchor point for unredeemed value to be retained.

BTW I like the "Legal Tinder" entry!
tedw
(02/02/2001; 22:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47312)
Blast from the past
http://www.usagold.comHarry Browne circa 1974:


During recent years , a great many people have argued over golds future role in the monetary systems of the world. An underlying assumption of these arguments is that the outcome will determine the future of gold. If governments manage to "demonetize" gold, it will turnout to be a poor investment.

But as I pointed out at the beginning of this chapter,golds role in proposed monetary systems will determine the future of those systems---not the future of gold.
ET
(02/02/2001; 22:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47313)
Peter

Hey Peter - good to chat again. You wrote in part;

"How about, ----Fiat or debt currency permits �GOVERNMENTS and those of ill intent' to take advantage of other's
good nature. ----- It becomes a vehicle for the morally dishonest which leads to the destruction of the benefits created by
it's existence."

There are no benefits created by its existence except to those that create it. It would seem hard to go wrong with the ability to create money at will, but I think we're going to see just how wrong things can go.

"It is not the �use' of fiat that is the problem. It is the �abuse' of it."

I don't agree partner. Its use as "money" is the problem. The term "money" implies a standard of value, a medium of exchange. Why do you want to substitute a tangible standard of value for one that is not if you have a choice? Isn't the standard itself the important item?
Peter Asher
(02/02/2001; 23:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47314)
ET

Thanks for the immediate response. I will answer as my next post but not tonight. I'm out of "Midnight Oil" to burn and weekends are workdays right now as we are in planning stages for 2nd homes.
Hi-Hat
(02/03/2001; 03:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47315)
Journeyman________Con test
Debts R USView Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 03:44:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47316)
Re; Lady Leigh and journeyman contest
Lady Leigh msg. #47286,

Hi there me good Lady. Is that not the reason we all come here but to learn? We all come together here from all walks of life and from all socioeconomic backgrounds. Any question asked is not a foolish question, only the foolish don't ask questions. My personal philosophy is that if one does not learn at least one new thing per day, then that day has been wasted. Keep em comin�. Cheers!

- Black Blade


Journeyman msg. Contest - 47237,

Good to see you back in form with a contest. We refer to American gold as "Eagles", so how about American paper as "Seagulls." After all, unless one is on either coast, you can generally find "Seagulls" at the landfill with all the rest of the garbage. And not to mention they're hell on parked cars ;-)


Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 04:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47317)
Interesting Article
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/drakulich020401.htmlThe article is an interesting take on the markets, but I especially like these closing comments:

"And by the way for you GOLD BUGS that are still alive and kicking out there(are there any?). My work shows that the odds are now very high for a big upside acceleration in gold and gold stocks, SILVER TOO! Looks to me like gold made a FINAL secondary low just a week or so ago on Jan. 26 at the 262 level. If I'm correct it should be "lights out" to the upside, no California pun intended!"

There has been a sharp increase in the positive takes on gold and silver recently. Even major brokerages and investment banks are putting a positive spin on the PMs. Farfel gives us a another positive indicator with the COT numbers. I am starting to feel a bit more upbeat even though duck season is over.

- Black Blade

justamereBear
(02/03/2001; 04:17:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47318)
Topaz 47281

There seems to be 2 kinds of fuel cells. The PEM membrane and the ceramic. In the ceramic field, you might try Global of Calgary Alberta. They have prototypes of a small unit suitable for a car or a home. About 3 or 4 months ago they signed a contract with Enbridge (Natural gas suppliers) to market the unit as a home supply.

The conversion efficiency of an internal combustion engine is somewhere about 30%. Pem membrane units generally run about 50%, disregarding the heat. They use some extra parasite units, such as a blower to pressurize the gas, so they do not get quite as good a conversion rate as the ceramics, which does not need so much parasite equipment, and the ceramic conversion is about 55%. Once you start using the heat, the ratios on both go up to around 80%. The heat exchanger technology is bulky and a bit expensive for the automotive application, and the resultant high cost, does not justify its use at the lower gas prices.

However, what Global and Enbridge have done is say, well we will use the heat to heat water, and heat your home. The heat can also be easily used for air conditioning. So, in fact, they, without much capital cost, have made for all but a few months of the year, extremely high use of the heat. The total cost for energy for a household is very good. Global uses a ceramic plate technology.

Others, notably Siemans-Westinghouse, have a prototype Commercial volume unit out that uses ceramic tubes. They expect to be in production in less than 2 years, at a capital cost in the range of $2,000 per kilowatt. (currently it is much higher.) Again, disregarding heat, they are in the 50 - 55% conversion efficiency range.

There is an Aussie bunch, who I can't recall the name of at the moment, who are a long way down the road as well. For unknown reasons, (to me) the commercial test prototypes are located in Holland, and are relatively small, and so far, completely problem free. Mind you, with essentially no moving parts, that is to be expected.

Currently, pretty well all the units use natural gas type fuels, (eg also methane) which usually have a single carbon molecule surrounded by several hydrogens, and they strip out the carbon, and the unit creates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen to produce a byproduct of pure H2O.

Starting with a pure hydrogen fuel, you would have a saving in the stripping out carbon process, partly in equipment costs, and partly in efficiency. But pure hydrogen is a bit dodgy to work with, so if that application appears, it will be some time in the future.

Providing supplies of natural gas hold out, this is the wave of the future, because of the high conversion rates, and you can easily take your electrical generating facility right to the users site, so no transmission problems.

There is a good deal of information available, particularly on the internet, about this totally "new" field. There is also a email/internet publication called Hydrogen Mirror, published in Germany, which I have found to be good.

There is also a gigantic study going on by the Japanese, called the W E project, revolving around hydrogen. I suppose it stands for something like world energy.

Regards
j'Bear

justamereBear
(02/03/2001; 04:17:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47319)
Topaz 47281

There seems to be 2 kinds of fuel cells. The PEM membrane and the ceramic. In the ceramic field, you might try Global of Calgary Alberta. They have prototypes of a small unit suitable for a car or a home. About 3 or 4 months ago they signed a contract with Enbridge (Natural gas suppliers) to market the unit as a home supply.

The conversion efficiency of an internal combustion engine is somewhere about 30%. Pem membrane units generally run about 50%, disregarding the heat. They use some extra parasite units, such as a blower to pressurize the gas, so they do not get quite as good a conversion rate as the ceramics, which does not need so much parasite equipment, and the ceramic conversion is about 55%. Once you start using the heat, the ratios on both go up to around 80%. The heat exchanger technology is bulky and a bit expensive for the automotive application, and the resultant high cost, does not justify its use at the lower gas prices.

However, what Global and Enbridge have done is say, well we will use the heat to heat water, and heat your home. The heat can also be easily used for air conditioning. So, in fact, they, without much capital cost, have made for all but a few months of the year, extremely high use of the heat. The total cost for energy for a household is very good. Global uses a ceramic plate technology.

Others, notably Siemans-Westinghouse, have a prototype Commercial volume unit out that uses ceramic tubes. They expect to be in production in less than 2 years, at a capital cost in the range of $2,000 per kilowatt. (currently it is much higher.) Again, disregarding heat, they are in the 50 - 55% conversion efficiency range.

There is an Aussie bunch, who I can't recall the name of at the moment, who are a long way down the road as well. For unknown reasons, (to me) the commercial test prototypes are located in Holland, and are relatively small, and so far, completely problem free. Mind you, with essentially no moving parts, that is to be expected.

Currently, pretty well all the units use natural gas type fuels, (eg also methane) which usually have a single carbon molecule surrounded by several hydrogens, and they strip out the carbon, and the unit creates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen to produce a byproduct of pure H2O.

Starting with a pure hydrogen fuel, you would have a saving in the stripping out carbon process, partly in equipment costs, and partly in efficiency. But pure hydrogen is a bit dodgy to work with, so if that application appears, it will be some time in the future.

Providing supplies of natural gas hold out, this is the wave of the future, because of the high conversion rates, and you can easily take your electrical generating facility right to the users site, so no transmission problems.

There is a good deal of information available, particularly on the internet, about this totally "new" field. There is also a email/internet publication called Hydrogen Mirror, published in Germany, which I have found to be good.

There is also a gigantic study going on by the Japanese, called the W E project, revolving around hydrogen. I suppose it stands for something like world energy.

Regards
j'Bear

Topaz
(02/03/2001; 04:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47320)
Waterboy: Shifty.
http://boutique.monnaiedeparis.fr/cgi-bin/mdp.storefront/EN/Waterboy,
Thanks for that info - all seem reliant on NG, LPG - any other Tech on the horison? (if you have time)
Shifty,
Link above is to the French Mint, I think they are all going to mint a Euro - the Fremch (numismatic) effort is pretty exxie, even with the Tax taken off.
Just as an aside, I got a set of French Euros 2 yr's ago, a 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz, all Au, a 1oz Ag and a generic 1 euro coin. Design was similar to the 1/4 oz Au Euro (the one with 1/2 a face), except all the "e" simbols were the 11 member countries and their "cast in concrete" exchange rate. A fairly "busy" design however I hold great expectations for this set. (2000 sets only, and with a "19" date stamp) we'll see hey!
DaveC
(02/03/2001; 04:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47321)
Journeyman - Selling the Artic Drilling Idea
Although your first sales pitch would go over well here I think we would need something that the MTV crowd can relate too.

Since it's all about image, picture something like oil and gas guys working with polar bears and baby seals in the picture.

Then we need a catchy "sound bite" phrase.

"Making life good for you and them" or something the enviro crowd can relate to.

If I think of a better one I'll post it.
Topaz
(02/03/2001; 04:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47322)
justamereBear
Howdy j'bear,
Thanks for your 47318 AND 47319 , I've now got plenty of homework to do.
PS: enjoy your input greatly.
Peter Asher
(02/03/2001; 04:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47323)
OK Journeyman, I can't resist

Mad Money
Instant money
Issue Tissue
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 04:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47324)
Re: DaveC

Hello Dave, it looks like you just shot down my new business plan. I was about to start a hunting guide service to the Arctic. I was going to charge high paying customers to boogie onto the tundra to club baby seals. I figure that there isn't any competition in this area yet and it is a "sport" that needs to be developed. Maybe if we "pet" and "feed" them first�. No matter how I try I think it's a tough sell. I guess I'll just have to wait until duck season opens. ;-)

- Black Blade

Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 05:04:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47325)
U.S. Oil Soars Above $31 a Barrel
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010202/bs/markets_energy_dc_1.html
By Andrew Mitchell
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices raced back above the $31 a barrel mark on Friday on forecasts of cold weather in the U.S Midcontinent, where crude stocks are at record lows. March crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange ended$1.37 a barrel higher at $31.19 a barrel, building on Thursday's rise of more than a dollar and taking gains in the last sessions to nine percent. The decisive upturn has pushed prices right back to the levels blamed for slowing U.S. economic growth last year, when NYMEX crude's average of $30.20 was its highest for 17 years. Producer cartel OPEC, whose mid-January deal to cut supply by five percent came into force from Thursday, has signaled its determination to keep prices high despite signs that high energy costs are hurting economic growth. U.S. oil supply remains tight with crude stocks across the U.S. less than three million barrels above 25-year lows struck last year, and at all-time lows in the Midcontinent. Private weather forecasts predicted below normal temperatures next week and much-below normal temperatures by next Friday over the central U.S, although the heating-oil dependent Northeast is expected to see mild weather in the next week. The cold forecasts helped pull U.S. heating oil -- which had fallen 30 percent since late November -- 4.3 cents higher to 82.14 a gallon.

Opec Keeps Grip On Supply

OPEC's early move to slice supply aimed to avoid being caught out by the threat that prices might slide when peak Northern Hemisphere winter consumption tails off. Supply figures released this week showing a six million barrel build in gasoline inventories and a sharp fall in gasoline demand signal the fallout from high energy prices and wider economic worries, analysts say. Record gasoline prices last summer, sky-high heating oil and gas bills this winter and the shock of California's power crisis have all played their part in taking U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest point in more than four years. While U.S. crude prices are still at the $30 a barrel level that Washington has said is unacceptable, a growing premium for U.S. crudes over other international oils means prices do not look so strong from the producers' point of view. OPEC's basket of crude oil is at $25 a barrel, right in the middle of the $22-28 range the group has agreed with importing nations it will target. OPEC is willing to defend prices further by cutting supply if its crude basket should fall below the $22 floor. ``We just haven't been able to take this market down,'' said Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas. ``Crude's been rangebound for the last week or so wondering which way to go but with some cold forecasts, the interest rate cut and obviously going to defend its price floor, we've now broken higher,'' he said. The impact of OPEC's supply curbs has been strengthened by a long period of lower-than-normal exports from Iraq that has taken a huge chunk out of supply to the 76 million barrels per day (bpd) world market. Iraq's efforts to persuade its oil lifters to pay an illegal surcharge on U.N.-sponsored exports mean it has exported barely 4O million barrels since December 1, around 90 million barrels less than under its normal export rates. Though Iraq has pledged to push exports back over two million barrels per day from 925,000 bpd in January Iraq's surcharge demand has made selling the crude difficult, Iraqi industry sources said on Friday.


Black Blade: The OPEC cuts kicked in a couple of days ago, and should show up in about a month in lower inventories. Iraq began to pick up production and OPEC has already stated that they would respond in kind. The same crowd of analysts who declared that oil would be at $5.00/bbl forever a couple of years ago, were recently saying that $30.00/bbl oil was not a possibility this year. Currently oil is at $31.19/bbl for NY sweet crude. It looks as if these guys are going to be late to the party again. Their superiors must cringe every time they come out with a price prediction.
Canuck
(02/03/2001; 05:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47326)
@ AEL
You ARE the man, long time no hear; last I believe was to the rescue of silver, yes?

May have had a vodka or three too many last night, have developed cranial crack around left temple. Hope the whiskey was good to you.

Take care.
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 05:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47327)
Republican energy plan encourages Alaska drilling
http://enn.com/news/wire-stories/2001/02/02022001/upi_anwr_41786.asp
Friday, February 2, 2001
By United Press International

Setting the stage for a battle over the future of U.S. energy policy, Senate Republicans are preparing to introduce a sweeping energy policy bill that would open a vast Alaskan wilderness preserve for oil exploration and offer billions of dollars worth of tax breaks to domestic gas and oil production companies. The bill, a draft copy of which was obtained by United Press International, includes provisions to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, streamline environmental reviews of new natural gas pipelines, explore increases in federal hydroelectric power production, and study the possibility of increasing reliance on nuclear power. The legislation also includes billions of dollars worth of tax incentives for oil and gas drilling and for improving the environmental performance of coal-fired power plants.

But Democrats are already drafting alternative proposals of their own, setting the stage for a reprise of bitter energy battles that Congress has fought before. The Senate bill is an updated version of legislation offered last year by Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Energy Committee Chairman Frank Murkowski. The bill died last year, but many of the provisions appeared in campaign proposals offered by then-candidate and now president, George W. Bush. In an apparent effort to address the electricity crisis in California, the bill grants the federal government new authority to site power lines, and eliminates 65-year-old restrictions on the ownership of power plants by foreign companies. The bill would establish a system of regional "reliability organizations" responsible for guaranteeing sufficient and consistent power flow in the regions they govern. The bill was drafted by Energy Committee staff members under the direction of Republican Staff Director Andrew Lundquist, who this week was named to lead a new White House task force on energy policy in the office of Vice President Dick Cheney. The appointment suggests an unusually close tie between the White House and Republicans in Congress on energy issues.

Black Blade: A good start, but they had better "fast track" this sucker through congress. Time is short and the economy is about to get hammered as never before. These higher energy costs have to be paid by some one, and that some one is ultimately the consumer. With fewer dollars to spend on consumer goods, the economy could be "toast" and George Dubya will inherit a legacy akin to Herbert Hoover. It was cheap energy after all that fueled the economic expansion and the Bull Market of recent years. That "cheap energy" is gone forever. If they want to salvage what is left, they had better work on getting more reliable energy sources together. It is time to "fish or cut bait!" I find that it is interesting that these politicians are actually discussing the merits of nuclear and coal. That was an unthinkable prospect only a few months ago. The situation is getting outta control as the western governors have found out.
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 05:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47328)
Rig Counts are Up, But Still Not Enough
Domestic Rig Count Rises by 22

HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States rose 22 to 1,138 this week, a report by an oilfield equipment company said Friday. Of the rigs running nationwide, 900 were exploring for gas, 237 were looking for oil and one was listed as miscellaneous, Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported.A year ago, the rig count was at 757. Baker Hughes has kept track of the count since 1944. The tally peaked at 4,530 on Dec. 28, 1981, during the height of the oil boom, but set several record lows in 1999, bottoming out at 488 on April 23, 1999. Of the major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas gained 19 rigs, California four and Louisiana two. New Mexico declined by five.

Black Blade: There is a "Rush" for rigs. However, when hydrocarbon prices cratered over the last few years, many rigs ended up in the scrap heaps and drill rig crews pursued other careers. There is no easy answer to this mess. US rig manufacturers either went belly-up, or into other businesses. This power crisis will be with us for some time. The potential for and oil crisis is beginning to enter the picture once again with OPEC finally getting some control over "cheating" by various members. Times are just beginning to get "Interesting."


Crossroads
(02/03/2001; 05:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47329)
retraction
Peter Asher, I regret that my message caused alarm and I apologize for my insensitivity towards you. After re-reading, I see the errors in my ways. I failed to elaborate, which is one of the hazards of posting when at work. I was only encouraged by Randy's willingness to admit his inability to teach on a public forum. I for I could say exactly the same thing. Thats why I lurk. The rest of his note is between he and you. I realize that you probably thought that I was responding to the post as a whole and I assure you that I was not.

As for the "leadership" comment, well I was referring to MK and the fact that he would surround himself with people who had integrity. Sorry for the confusion.
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 05:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47330)
Janus Funds Fortunes
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010202/ck.htmlIt looks as if the Mutual fund family of Janus Funds are headed into rough waters these days. The best performing fund family over the last several years and heavy investor in the "New Economy" is cutting 16% of its work force. I just read that the CEO has filed to sell a large chunk of his shares. This does not look good for the Wall Street pundits who continue to offer their "sage advice" of "buy the dips" and the equities markets look "poised to rise." We are in a recession IMO, and the signs are all around. The only problem with these "signs" is that no one on Wall Street can read.
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 05:40:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47331)
Governors Discuss Solutions to Energy Crisis
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010202/lo/governors_discuss_solutions_to_energy_crisis_1.html
By KPIX CBS News
California's power crisis is something many other parts of the nation could be facing. How to solve the crisis and how to keep it from spreading was key to some high-level meetings going on in Portland, Oregon today. Newly confirmed energy secretary Spence Abraham jumped head first into California's power fiasco this morning. Along with the governors of nine western states, Abraham attended an energy summit in Portland. He told the governors they could count on the Bush Administration for help in solving what he called a national problem. "We recognize that for us to have the kind of comprehensive energy plan that makes sure America does meet its energy security needs, we have to move forward on a bipartisan way and recognize we are all in it together," said Abraham. Just a day after signing a ten billion dollar package designed to ease his state's power problems, Governor Gray Davis was confident California will see better days ahead. "We have worked very hard to fix our problems," said Davis. "With the cooperation of our neighbors, we've made great progress." There was no doubt among the other governors in attendance that energy woes could spread quickly. "Today's it's California, tomorrow? It's your guess, but we ought to be working together to come up with a long-term solution" said Wyoming Governor Jim Gerhinger. Governors will also hear from a long list of experts, hoping to find a solution that will benefit everyone involved.

Black Blade: What isn't said here is that Kommissar Gray Davis was lambasted by the other governors for the problems heaped upon them because of the Grasshopper mentality in Kalifornia that led to much of this crisis in the west. He didn't look too happy while the other governors tore into him. The media, however, had only glossed over that aspect of the meeting.

Topaz
(02/03/2001; 05:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47332)
Black Blade: All.
BB,
I see the problem, your killer instinct has not been sated, even though every Duck within 50 sq miles of "Bladesville" (could there possibly be ANY left) quivers at the very mention of your name...... and I think you'd have Presidential patronage on the Seal deal.
All,
FYI - Having just visited the French Mint site (posted below) I am now able to inform all and sundry that it is:-
The year 4695 in Chinese
The year 6237 in Egyptian
The year 5761 in Hebrew
The year 2001 in English/Gregorian
The year 5120 in Mayan
The year 1421 in Muslim
The year 2545 in Buddhist.
Remember the song "In the year 2525" - well it probably WAS 2525.
The above was gleaned from an interesting "object d'art" paperweight at the Mint site - 30 Euro and it's yours!
Cool huh?
Topaz
(02/03/2001; 06:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47333)
Journeyman
Thats it Journey!!
alt Barbaric relic = Ponzi Paperweight.
JavaMan
(02/03/2001; 06:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 47334)
Good morning All...
Last night I submitted Henri's msg#: 47277 (It is through giving that we receive...) to the Hall Of Fame in my msg#: 47283. As it was Friday evening, many of you may not have had an opportunity to read his post. I encourage everyone to check it out, and if you already saw it, then read it again.

I feel this post should reside in the HOF, not for any compelling ORO-ian* financial or econonic reasoning but, rather, because it compells us to examine our "internal" wealth...our "selves".

From my post: "Sir Henri! Your msg#: 47277...is Priceless...It brought tears to my eyes. No! More than that. It's the kind of message that should be forever honored by the forum to show that there is more to be valued than gold. Well... is there???!!! I say...yes! I submit this work to the Hall Of Fame. In addition, it should have a special place of prominence that reflects its appeal to humanity. Seek wisdom before fine gold and silver."

From Henri's post: "I look at the writings of "Another" and "FOA" as simple gifts given for the joy of sharing their knowlege or insight without the expectation of return. I also perceive that they enjoy the element of interaction and the opportunity to understand how they can make their message clearer. "Trail Guide" and "Another"...thank you. Should your scenario unfold as it seems to be doing albeit on an indeterminate schedule, I am certain we will come to a fuller understanding by reading your posts in retrospect."

Perhaps this answers the many questions that have been asked as to the motive for FOA's posting.


* a complimentary adjective by definition.
DaveC
(02/03/2001; 06:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47335)
Black Blade & Journeyman
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse020501.htmlHow about "Alaska Drilling and Petting Zoo"?

BB, On your other post about quotes from GE, here's another from the link above. The subject is "Does More Money = More Energy?"

"There was, by the way, one time when more money did directly result in more energy. In China, during the late 1940s, the inflation rate got so high that paper money became the cheapest form of fuel (it was more cost-effective to burn paper money than to burn coal)."

Legal Tinder, Yikes!
dragonfly
(02/03/2001; 06:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47336)
Journeyman Contest
Fully Inflated Actuarial Tokens
How about GREENSTAMPS ??

Two images might come to mind for the folks at large.

1. The huge number of them that we used to have to collect to redeem for merchandise.

2. The possibility that with a bit of glue currency might second as postage.

Regards,
dragonfly
Black Blade
(02/03/2001; 06:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47337)
India's gold, silver prices rise as supplies drop after quake

Mumbai--Feb. 2--Reduced supplies on account of last week's massive earthquake in India's western state of Gujarat pushed up local gold and silver prices, traders said on Friday. Most of the country's gold imports go to Ahmedabad city, in Gujarat, before being distributed to other business centers.

Black Blade: Contrary to a lot of speculation that the quake would dampen gold and silver demand in India, PM supplies appear to be in great demand. The quake centered on a major distribution center, yet India is a large country with a large population, and PMs are desired throughout. Now that the distribution center has been leveled by a devastating earthquake, other channels will be sought. In the short term at least local prices should actually rise.

Well I'm off to get some R&R on the slopes for a couple of days with some friends from "gold country" and the "oil patch." Maybe I'll check in off and on over the weekend. So golden dreams all. I feel as though next week could be a golden one. Cheers!
dragonfly
(02/03/2001; 07:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47338)
Journeyman Contest
Now ya got me going :))
How about Spambinos ??

Conjuring up the image of Allen Greenspan shovelling up the offal from the killing floor and homogenizing it in a vat and feeding it to us in ever-smaller morsels of anti-nutrition that never satisfy the true biological hunger for real food. But then why let a good thing go to waste??

Regards,
dragonfly
Bascom Toadvine
(02/03/2001; 08:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47339)
Fuel Cell tecnology
http://www.mhtx.com/Manhatten Scientific is an offshoot from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. It is promoting the NovArs system which is small scale fuel cell technology. They so far have a bicycle, cell phone, and now an electrolux vacuum cleaner. Trades on the OTCBB as MHTX.

Since most all fuel cell technology relies on some sort of catalyst...Platinum/palladium...I think this area of mining stocks could be of great future worth. A deposit has been discovered in northern Canada to rival those of the Russia.

Musk Ox Mining (MSK on CDN exchange) seems to be a good candidate for a very long term buy and hold. It is years from development but has great potential to be the buy of the Millenium.
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 08:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47340)
JavaMan: Fools
And Buddha put it: "There is no companionship with a fool on the road to Enlightenment."

That leaves it pretty simple. You don't have to change someone. They're just on a different road than you are. You just have to be sure the road is wide enough to let you pass, or just stand aside and get out of their way.

I put in some time trying to save the world, until I unexpectedly found myself floundering just to keep my own head above water. "A man's gotta know his limits." (Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry?)
Peter Asher
(02/03/2001; 08:38:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47341)
Crossroads
Thanks for the clarification.

Posting from work.eh? There's the glitch in the productivity stats.
Pete
(02/03/2001; 08:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47342)
Mr Gresham (2/3/2001; 8:30:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 47340)
http://laplaza.org/~paxton/menuof.htmYour above post reminded me of this link, "No Time for Karma." I think you might find it interesting. I did!

Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 08:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47343)
Dragonfly
I think you're on to something with the junk food analogy: cabinets and refrigerators full of unnourishing and unsatisfying manufactures...we've got Junk Bonds, Junk Yard Dogs, a dozen others I can't recall at the moment ("junk"s a pretty funny word when you say it a few times) so "Junk Bucks"?

(Your "Tokens" and "Greenstamps" are great!)
Simply Me
(02/03/2001; 09:09:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47344)
Journeyman's Contest
How 'bout:
Gov'mint IOU's
Bogus Bucks
Funny Money
Monopoly Money
IRS Homing Devices
U.S. Ruble
Fed-Rigged Paper
Wallpaper (Some might recognize the association with a "Paper-hanger" as someone who's spreading counterfeit or bad checks around town.)

I really like someone else's "PlayDough" and "Green Stamps" ideas, too.

simply
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 09:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 47345)
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm

"The overriding goal for the Credit Bubble Bulletin is to educate and inform as I attempt to document as best I can this historic period in financial and economic history. I am also committing myself to years of endeavor striving to ensure that the true story of this fateful boom and unavoidable bust is documented completely and accurately, and that facts are not obfuscated as times passes by. Let there be absolutely no doubt, great efforts will be expended to paint all of this in a much more palatable light. One need not look far to see how fragile truth can be, with Saddam Hussein presented as responsible for the early 1990's US recession, crony capitalism the culprit for the SE Asian collapse, and a freak occurrence of "The Perfect Storm" doing in the hard-luck Long-Term Capital Management. Some may likely go so far as to explain the boom as some variance of "the nineteen-nineties were in many ways the high tide of the Federal Reserve System." I hope to fight this revisionist history every step of the way. "

and, putting in a word for Keynes (a man of his times, though not for all seasons):
""If we are dealing with a closed system, so that there is only the condition of internal equilibrium to fulfill, an appropriate banking policy is always capable of preventing any serious disturbance to the status quo from developing at all�But when the condition of external equilibrium must also be fulfilled, then there will be no banking policy capable of avoiding disturbance to the internal system." John Maynard Keynes

No, in our times, we have Federal Reserve Bank presidents:

""(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert) McTeer concluded his speech by driving home the message that consumers do their part to keep the economic expansion going. He implored the audience: �Go out and buy something.� Dow Jones News 2/2/01

"If we all join hands together and buy a new SUV, everything will be OK." Robert McTeer, Associated Press, 2/2/01





Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 09:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47346)
Pete
Thanks. That's one of my strong interests, too. I'll read some.
Lafisrap
(02/03/2001; 10:20:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47347)
Prediction
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey020401.html
The above link contains a detailed technical analysis of the POG. It also contains a short, simple, verifiable statement predicting near-term behavior of the POG: "I look for a surge in the bullion price to at least $320 by midyear with the target of $395 being achieved before the end of this year." The statement is difficult to misunderstand, and notice the exact words the writer chooses, in which he takes personal responsibility for his prediction "I . . .." This is how credibility is gained, or not. We have an event and a time frame. It is the same in all areas of human endeavor. Credibility is gained, or not, in the same way. It has always been.

As for technical analysis of the POG, I expect clever people to be capable of devising theories that explain most everything. History, analysis of current facts, details of the machinations surrounding the gold market, etc., all this helps me better understand gold. If POG does rise to $395 before the end of the year, perhaps it will be the beginning of the FOA/Another prediction that POG will rise to many thousands of dollars per ounce.

I sure do need POG to go to $30,000.00 !

Lafisrap

mhchuck
(02/03/2001; 10:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47348)
Journeyman's Contest

"Faux Dough": Is it not the chink in the armor of those that will inevitably be referred to as, 'The Powers That Were?'

Those that live by the sword; Die by the sword.

mhchuck
JavaMan
(02/03/2001; 10:38:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47349)
Hello Mr. G...
And Buddha was right. As a matter of fact, I think that phrase may be interpreted on several levels i.e. there is no companionship with the fool because one doesn't encounter a fool on the road to Enlightenment...unless they're going in the opposite direction.

Also, you said: "You don't have to change someone. They're just on a different road than you are."

Agreed, and that's good because one doesn't (read is not able to) change someone...people can only change themselves, and that, in rare instances.

And "...limits." = "limitations."...with teeth firmly clinched.
Lafisrap
(02/03/2001; 11:31:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47350)
On Communication
http://www.ninehundred.net/control/
In the Forward to "Rape of the Mind" (1956, World Publishing Co.), Joost A. M. Meerloo states: "One of the great Dutch authors, Multatuli, wrote a letter to his friend excusing himself because the letter was so long: he had not had time enough to write a shorter one. In this paradox he expressed part of the problem of all search for expression and communication. It takes a long time to express an idea in a precise and communicable way."

Genoo
(02/03/2001; 11:42:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47351)
BUSHIE SNUGGLES UP TO THE FREE MARKET
htpp://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/03/national/03GOVS.htmlCould it really be a sign of things to come????

"critics say the [capping] measures [proposed] are a dangerous tinkering with NORMAL MARKET FORCES and could exacerbate problems in the long run by discouraging development of new sources of electricity"

"The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission which oversees the wholesale electricity markets...[has refused to impose caps]...saying it can only do so if it FINDS EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION by power companies to drive up prices."

My opinion: Bush sidesteps controls and aims for the fence in a swing for the free market.
Chris Powell
(02/03/2001; 12:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47352)
Swiss financial magazine features GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/639Long story about gold manipulation and
lawsuit.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
justamereBear
(02/03/2001; 12:24:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47353)
Topaz 47321 and 47322

Loved your year of...
Re my 47318 & 9 Ooops.

j'Bear
USAGOLD
(02/03/2001; 12:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 47354)
All. . . .
http://www.latimes.com/wires/wbusiness/20010203/tCB00a2255.htmlI've added some quotes to the Commentary & Review page that might of interest, particularly the one below with my comments and another on the Conference of Governors on the energy crisis which I think you will find interesting.
_______________________

"We are not in a recession. There is not enough data to point to a recession. What we are seeing is an economy with a slower rate of growth than we had before." --- Donna Zerwitz, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc., as reported by Reuters (Go to link above)

Ed. Note: I have been expressing a similar viewpoint in private with CPM/USAGOLD clientele. Technically, a recession is defined as six months of negative economic growth, and thus far we haven't had a single month of negative numbers. That's not to say that we won't have a recession -- just that we are not there yet. Though I agree with the tenor and direction of the Bush administration at this early stage, I disagree with selling the tax cut non the basis of an impending recession. Taxes should be cut for the obvious reason: They are a drain on productive individuals. The tax
rates are too high -- plain and simple -- and the government too large. In my view, the constant talk of recession in the public venue is a mistake and unnecessary.

As an aside, I think the similarities in personna between the Bush and the Kennedy administrations are fairly remarkable. Both came into office promising a tax cut and restoring the national defense. Both packed their cabinet and advisory positions with the 'best and brightest' available from our citizenry. Both gave short inaugural speeches emphasizing citizen involvement in the political process,inclusiveness and American idealism. Both came from patrician backgrounds and portrayed themselves as decisive and men of character. Both were criticized in some quarters for their religious backgrounds. Of course there are differences between the two, but I find the similarities interesting nevertheless.
Gandalf the White
(02/03/2001; 12:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47355)
Ok -- SIR MK , You ask for it and the story is now OUT !
On MSNBC's webpage "This Week in Pictures" is a photo titled "New dog in Town" and shows MK the following:
"President Bush's dog "SPOT" romps on the South Lawn of the White House, once the playground of the former President Clinton's dog "Buddy". "SPOT" is the offspring of hte former first dog "Millie", who roamed the White House when GW's father was President"
---
NOW, the cat is out of the bag !!
SHHHHHHHHHH -- Wall street and COMEX players have not figured out just what this ("SPOT" in the "cat-bird seat") means to the future of all Goldheart's !
---
PS: I can not tell if "SPOT" is a Golden Retriever" or just has a GOLD tennis ball in his mouth !
<;-)
USAGOLD
(02/03/2001; 12:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 47356)
News Link. . . .
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlI hardly see comment about our News Feed from London here or references to the great articles that come up there. I think it is one of the best news feeds on the internet for gold news and the economic and political events that affect it. I go to lots of pages and you would be hard pressed to find a better one.
SHIFTY
(02/03/2001; 13:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47357)
OK ...who was it ?
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010201/od/phony_dc_1.htmlDANVILLE, Ky. (Reuters) - Talk about funny money.

Police in Kentucky are looking for a customer who succeeded in paying for a $2 order at a fast-food restaurant with a phony $200 bill featuring a picture of President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and a depiction of the White House with a lawn sign saying, ``We like broccoli.''

Authorities say the female cashier at a Dairy Queen in Danville even gave the culprit $198 in real money as change.

``Essentially, the story is that somebody at a drive-in ordered some food and passed a $200 novelty deal with George Bush on it,'' Danville Police Detective Bob Williamson said.

``At a distance it looks like a real bill, it's got the green color,'' Williamson said when asked how the cashier possibly could mistake it for genuine money.

The cartoonish bill was accepted on Sunday evening by the Dairy Queen cashier despite having Bush on one side and an oil well on the other. The phony bill also depicted the White House lawn with yard signs reading ``U.S. deserves a tax cut,'' ``No more scandals'' and ``We like broccoli,'' the last apparently referring to Bush's father's admitted dislike for the vegetable.

No U.S. currency has a picture of Bush, let alone a reference to liking broccoli.

Because there is no actual $200 currency, the culprit could face a charge of theft by deception but not counterfeiting, Williamson said.

IronHead
(02/03/2001; 13:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47358)
Java Man's HOF Nomination RE: Sir Henri's #47277
Sir Java Man - Yesterday's forum was quite the epiphany for me to review late into the wee hours, with resounding thunder from Sir Oro, a return to "watch together" by Sir FOA, Journeyman's most popular of contests, and above all else, the most humble of gifts by Sir Henri.

With utmost pleasure and appreciation I second your nomination of Sir Henri's "Gift", to us all.

Having been here for close to two years, thru this forum I've come to a technical understanding of our gold/financial world, but more importantly a compassionate understanding of our "whole" world. Gold the metal is soft and maleable, as are the human emotions and foibles which shape our feelings of oneness. This unity of compassion and "being" have been so eloquently expressed by Sir Henri on numerous occasions, with other IronHead personal HOF archives which include 4-9-00 #28333,#28334,#28338; 4-16-00 #28757,#28761; 7-18-00 33594 [THIS IS ONE OF MY BLOODY FAVORITE ANTHOLOGIES OF THOUGHT EVER, ANYWHERE!!] and 8-26-00 #355547 (an outstanding day of review for some of FOA's, Ari's ((where far out thou, Sir Ari?)) and Henri's thoughts)

With the ability to remind us of our true selves, as human beings, beyond the mere creatures which crave "to have", as opposed with "to be", none have done so well in this endeavor.

I'm sure Sir Henri does not seek this admonition of splender, but he sure does deserve it!!

Salutations and "clink"
IronHead
tedw
(02/03/2001; 14:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 47359)
MURDER
http://www.usagold.com
I think it is unconsionable that a known murderer be allowed to post on this site.

Black Blade alias The Duck Murderer
tedw
(02/03/2001; 14:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47360)
MURDER
http://www.usagold.com
I think it is unconsionable that a known murderer be allowed to post on this site.

Black Blade alias The Duck Murderer
tedw
(02/03/2001; 14:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47361)
Silver leasing
http://www.usagold.com
Im seeking an education.I know that the Central Banks are the lessors of Gold, but who is doing the leasing of silver?

My understanding is the US has no stockpiles of silver anymore. So who has this big stash of silver that is available for lease?
IronHead
(02/03/2001; 14:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47362)
Journeyman's Fiat Funambulism
Wow, a contest on my level! And the prize matches my level too.

A nano is defined as one/billionth or 10 to the minus 9th pwr. With oh so many billions in leveraged instruments, and so many billions of printed papers out in the world at large, it seems appropriate that all those promises to pay are in diametric oposition to the actual worth or value of what they represent, thus they fall into the "nano nothing" category.

Please donate my nano nothing prize to the derivative bank relief fund of your choice.

Salutations
IronHead
IronHead
(02/03/2001; 15:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 47363)
Really Yummy Stuff!!
This is too delicious to pass on, so I'll rejoice in sharing it, as it ties in so well with my HOF second, and the Fiat funderall.

Furthering my nomination of Sir Henri's excellent work is the 7-18-00, #33594 post, which touches on the subjects of the fiat illusion, and how it relates to our perceived worth as sovereign beings, or slaves of our own perception.

From Henri: "The common bond of today's democratically induced bureaucracy is a worthless piece of fiat paper. When pursuit of such chits of fantasy cease, so will the fear of the potentate. This will be the ruin of this despotic power structure and hopefully the rebirth of the American Republic." [further along] "When the script of life becomes well defined, interest in the pursuit of life wanes. There are those that surrender to this and those that choose by free will alone to adopt a different perspective. For these sovereigns, life is an unfolding adventure. We are constantly amazed at those who follow the script."

These words speak so very well, what most of us "feel" in our bones regarding our place in this evolving dynamic of fiat illusion and gold-personal worth.

Salutations
IronHead
Topaz
(02/03/2001; 15:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47364)
Simply me
Hi Granny,
Nice post the other day - funny the impression one gets from reading the input here isn't it? It's a natural reaction on reading a post to construct a minds-eye image of the respective poster and in your case I had you pegged as a mid-thirties male computer geek working night shift in Hawaii.
ORO - of course - is a nerdy 19 yo number cruncher who married his Mom....
BB - without a doubt - is NOT feminine, but a pretty scary cus none-the-less.
and the list goes on....

anyway, nice to meet you out of the closet Ma'am.
Waterboy
(02/03/2001; 15:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47365)
Grass hoppers - 10 Ants - 0
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010130/ca_dept_wa.html
ENERGY UPDATE/Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power Daily
Energy Update, Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2001

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 30, 2001--The Los
Angeles Department of Water and Power issued its Daily Energy Update for Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2001:

The state has extended the Stage 3 alert for the 15th consecutive day and the Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power (DWP) continues to provide surplus energy to California. Yesterday,
DWP provided between 525 Megawatts (MW) and 1,150 MW per hour to the state through the
California Department of Water Resources.

The rolling blackouts from power shortages that have occurred in other parts of California will not be
felt by DWP customers.

DWP forecasts a peak energy load today in Los Angeles of 3,580 MW.

DWP has up to 1,100 MW of energy available today for sale.

This energy will be available to California entities to assist them in meeting their normal and emergency
energy needs. No power will be sold outside of the state during any DOE-certified or ISO staged
emergency.

DWP has 24 major thermal generating units at eight facilities. Today, 15 units are operating, including
nine of 10 base load units. Of the nine units not operating, five units have scheduled major maintenance
activities underway; three units are undergoing minor maintenance; and the remaining unit is available
for use, as the market requires. Hydro resources and pumped storage facilities can also be used to
meet market demands.

While electric rates have increased for some utilities in California, Los Angeles City residents continue
to enjoy stable rates that have remained unchanged for almost nine years. DWP provides electricity
and water to the city's 3.8 million residents.
Usul
(02/03/2001; 15:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 47366)
Fiat
Perishable Paper Promises
lamprey_65
(02/03/2001; 16:42:56 MDT - Msg ID: 47367)
MK
I agree with your point about this administration's talk of a recession as being a mistake for the economy - constant talk of recession by high-level politicians can do nothing but harm to consumer confidence.

I think, however, that there is more to the Bush team's tactic of using recession talk to push their tax plan. I firmly believe they know we have been in an asset bubble situation over the past few years and that unwinding such bubbles are always painful. They understand that extreme pain is coming for the populace and want to make sure that as much blame as possible can be deflected onto the previous administration - otherwise, the Republicans will have ZERO chance of doing well in the 2002 or 2004 elections.
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 18:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47368)
Fiat on the Joyce Channel (calling CB2)
You might add crates of Weimarica.


Peter's loaves less filling, but NY fed.

------------ (Fisherman's Fake)
Tree in the Forest
(02/03/2001; 18:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 47369)
Ok, this table is as good as it gets!
Here are some additional Comex figures. Gold futures are looking for 10 million oz of gold with just 91,000 oz eligible. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the remainder of total stock at 1.8 M oz is registered which means spoken for. Of course there's no way to know how many of these contracts will call for delivery. AG futures for March are asking for a whopping 228 million oz of silver with just 25 million oz eligible. Can anyone say default? Palladium is a joke and ditto platinum with virtually no stock in either metal. Copper is calling for over 500,000 short tons with barely 79,000 available and most of that is in Arizona. Possible spot shortages? Aluminum does not appear to have a problem. Refining aluminum ore is very energy intensive though so this is a good time for al companies to slow production and sell the energy instead. It may be worth more than the aluminum.
The California/Oregon border electricity was interesting so I thought I would add it. Zero open interest. Guess noone wants to sell CA any electricity!

Just thought someone might be interested in these figures.

As of: 1/31/2001 All figures approximate
& subject to adjustment
Comex Future
Contract spec.
Open interest near months
Comex stock

AU
100 oz.
Futures 100,000
Eligible 91,000 oz.
Registered 1.8M oz.

AG
5000 oz.
Futures March 45,500
Eligible 25M oz.
Registered 93M oz.

PD
100 oz.
Futures March 1450
110 oz.

PT
50 oz.
Futures April 7500
620 oz.

CU
25,000 lbs.
Futures 41,000 Feb & March
79,000 short tons mostly in AZ

AL
44,000 lbs.
Futures 1000 Feb, Mar & April
85, 000 short tons in spec
134,000 short tons other

CA/OR border electricity
432 MWh over 1 month
Currently no open interest in any month
Last settle $320.00/MWh basis March
tedw
(02/03/2001; 18:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47370)
Repent
http://www.usagold.com
Black Blade:

Repent of your foul Duck Murders. I have sent an e-mail to PETA requesting a wanted poster on you.

Go Gold
Tree in the Forest
(02/03/2001; 18:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47371)
Galearis, Journeyman, Henri
Galearis: I will keep an eye on Comex and post when I find something interesting.

Journeyman: How about "note bloat"?

Henri: Thank you kind sir. That post about receiving was very helpful!
IronHead
(02/03/2001; 18:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 47372)
Randy (@ The Tower) RE: Request for response to your #47284
Sir Randy - Your request for a brief and HONEST response to the above thought.

Along the same theme as I've addressed earlier today with respect to Sir Henri's thoughts on the human element, I feel your comments align with all whom reflect upon "fiat" as lie, perpetrated upon man, by man. Some in our midst deceive and wish to be deceived. Others seek truth and tell the truth. Gold appears to be the litmus test that all adhere to in effort to define their postition, be it by lie, or be it truth.

Wakata? Japanese for, "understand, or did I confuse?"

Salutations
IronHead
Tree in the Forest
(02/03/2001; 19:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47373)
tedw
Who would lease silver? How about the "Oracle of Omaha". He's certainly in position to do that. Now why would he do that? Perhaps he's waiting for the right moment to call in his loans and pull the rug out from under the silver market. Whaddya think?
schippi
(02/03/2001; 19:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47374)
XAU Analysis & Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/rhodes020201.htmCurrent XAU analysis by Richard Rhodes
IronHead
(02/03/2001; 19:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47375)
Tree in the Forest RE: your #47369
Hmm.... I've never addressed a tree as Sir, but why not?

Sir Tree - Enjoy your Comex updates, and wonder if you've noticed that the Comex stores always seem to show 1.8M ozs. regardless of how many deliveries take place on a month to month basis? I've observed this for as long as I can remember-(about 1 hr), seriously for at least a year now.

Do they just wave a wand and with Merlin like magic, make it appear? Or does some real gold actually make it to stores each and every month to make up the deficit? Why always 1.8 seems to be on hand, never 1.7 or 1.9? Do you think this is part of the collusion to sell more paper, and will it possibly increase magnumously when and if the short covering rally from perdition commences? That is, will they artificially have 20.8M ozs. if need be to cover the long positions when the trade is reversed some day?

I realise some of these questions might be beyond your direct ability to answer, but they have been floating around in my mind for quite some time, and your Comex actuarials triggered the response. Perhaps one of our paper tigers can help us out - sure miss ole Goldhunter, (too bad he got his panties in such a knot) as he was pretty determined in his prognostications for equal paper gold wealth, as opposed to those of us whom feel "physical" is a safer more comfortable bet.

Really enjoy your posts.

Salutations
IronHead
John Doe
(02/03/2001; 20:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 47376)
Name that Fiat
Feddie money
dough-nots
scamoney (pronounced 'sca-muh-nee)
anti-liberty bonds
theft and control units (or tacu's for short)
Tree in the Forest
(02/03/2001; 20:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 47377)
IronHead
IronHead, does your name refer to a Harley? Re: Comex. Looking at their gold stocks reminds me of the old bankers trick of putting a lot of cash in the teller's window to convince clients that the bank has lots of money and deflect a run on the bank. I actually witnessed this sort of baloney at Y2K. A teller flashing an enormous stack of bills at the window. They list a lot of registered gold which is most of the 1.8M oz but this gold is spoken for. The paltry amount that's actually available is less than 100,000 oz. Makes it look like they have more available than they actually do. I think it's a trick. They don't pull this nonsense with anything but silver and gold both of which are highly manipulated. What's the point of listing something that's not for sale? You also see this with other businesses like cars and real estate where they take great pride in showing a few ads with SOLD! plastered across the ad. Makes it look like business is great.
AEL
(02/03/2001; 20:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47378)
Canuck
Canuck (2/3/2001; 5:14:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47326
last I believe was to the rescue of silver, yes? [YES]
May have had a vodka or three too many last night [they go
down easy, don't they?] have developed cranial crack around
left temple [ :-) .... my cranium was cracked from the getgo, which explains a lot ..... ]
RossL
(02/03/2001; 22:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 47379)
Journeyman - contest

Truth and simplicity works. In public places I sometimes refer to green dollar money as "banknotes"... This invariably results in the precious looks of a lack of understanding by young cashiers.

Of course, I'm sure they think I'm some old weirdo kook. Everyone knows those green paper dollars are money. The only money that teenagers have ever known.

I did like that suggestion from John Doe (47376) - "theft and control units"
Simply Me
(02/03/2001; 22:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47380)
Topaz
You're a hoot! I'm probably as financially dumb as a "mid-thirties male computer geek working night shift in Hawaii". My economics education is somewhat stunted.
You were right about the "computer geek" part of it, though. I am, proudly, a second generation computer geek. Mother, aged 71, is fluent in FoxPro, Visual Basic, Fortran, Cobal and Machine Language. Night shift duties are entirely by choice. My husband and I run a business. I run the computer/internet end of it. Hawaii? I wish! I'm just outside of Nashville, Tennessee.

As for Oro and BB, I think you have them pegged.......
"ORO - of course - is a nerdy 19 yo number cruncher who married his Mom....BB - without a doubt - is NOT feminine, but a pretty scary cus none-the-less."
ROFLOL (Rolling on the floor, laughing out loud.)

So, what led "Topaz", a late-thirties "nearly-Outback" Aussie cowboy who has to fight the children for time on the computer, to this gold forum?

I know it's impossible, but wouldn't it be fun to read everyone's impressions of all the other posters and, later, read all the revelations?

Is Journeyman a rich playboy (old money, inherited) with a condo in Las Vegas who used to gamble in stocks and in casinos? Do you picture Mr. Gresham as fity-year old, balding, bank-manager?

I wish I understood enough of the stuff posted here to form some kind of a relevant (to gold) argument, but all the information seems to lead to just one picture for me.....U.S. economy down, U.S. stock market down, U.S. dollar DOUBLE-down......fuel/energy UP, gold UP Big Time! Switching to Euro seems to be a saving grace for other countries, but the U.S. will be too proud to admit loss of reserve currencey status. I doubt the Fed/U.S. gov't. will allow U.S. citizens easy access to Euros until there are thousands protesting on the Whitehouse lawns. The Fed and the US Treasury must have their seinorage.

The Aussie dollar has had it's trials recently, but I think the U.S. will see double-trouble soon. The destination is set..it's only a matter of which path we take, and when we get there.

simply





Mr Gresham
(02/03/2001; 22:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47381)
Simply Me
Bingo! Hey! -- where did my BANK go? (I set it down right here... somewhere.)
Horatio
(02/03/2001; 23:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47382)
Socialism
The administration should declare socialism to be a religeon ,then its funding can be limited to the same as the others,providing of coarse they don't preach thier particular gospel.In which case they would be cut off.
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 00:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47383)
Horatio

Re >>>>The administration should declare socialism to be a religion, then its funding can be limited to the same as the others, <<<<

All religions could be seen as socialism as they grant beingness and various supports to the individual by the fact of his existence rather than the statistics of his production. Socialism per-se would then be an agnostic form of religion.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller
(02/04/2001; 00:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47384)
Okay,I'm totally puzzled by this one

One of the aspects of this forum I love is the questions,hard facts and theories raised here pose such huge conundrums,it seems I can actually feel the thought processes ricocheting around my brain in futile search for answers.

One of these is the yields of US Treasury 10yr. and 30yr.bonds.The prevailing opinions presented in the mainstream(of which I read a lot of in a attempt to form a balanced perspective)'sees A.G. dutifully lowering interest rates in the time honoured strategy of re-igniting the suddenly swooning economy.Knowing what we know(it really isn't that hard to find),on total debt loads of the U.S.,how can there not be adverse reactions in the longer term bonds?Could the popular perception of a rapidly shrinking deficit combined with the much trumpeted Treasury re-purchase really have quieted the bond market vigilantes?How long can the illusion of budget surpluses and debt paydowns be maintained?Again it is not too hard to find the information that there is still a budget deficit and that the unified total debt is still growing.Where is the fear of currency risk in this equation and how is it so easliy glossed over?

On a related note, has anybody heard of a H.W. Brock or an organization or newsletter entitled Strategic Economic Decisions.I saw his name mentioned in a editorial,it sounds as if he holds a lot of opinions that are prevalent here at this fine forum.

TIA,Old Yeller
gidsek
(02/04/2001; 00:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47385)
Lafisrap
I haven't visted GE in many moons chiefly because of the tripe one finds there like the Roffey article.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey020401.html

head & shoulders my foot! though he's right about the declining wedge thing IMHO.

Not a swipe at you, USAGs' Wagnerian gold heart, just miffed at what some writers try to pass off as TA.

gidsek
IronHead
(02/04/2001; 01:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47386)
Tree in the Forest
Sir Tree - Haa.... I love it, A "Harley"!- Never thought of my handle as such. No, I'm afraid my moniker refers to my stubborn block-headed determination as if a bull in the proverbial china closet, or perhaps more apt, a gold bull in a paper jungle. Although, I suppose bone-head, pan-head, knuckle-head, dead-head all could apply equally as well.

Yes I am of the two wheeled motor-head persuasion, but my resources have always precluded the luxury of American Iron.
For 20 some years my predilections, including wife, have been "made in Japan". Perhaps some day after the fiat folds, I can exchange a Rooster for something on the order of a Nigel Patrick 113 CI Super Glide Custom. You ride? If so, you're in good company with The Stranger and I believe Java Man, formerly aka Harley Davidson. Just another golden form of freedom, eh?

Yeah Verily on the Comex dog and pony show. With the Tocom and Nymex pretty well defunct on Pd deliveries, as so nicely annotated by Sir Black Blade (bet he's a road warrior too), we can perhaps see the direction Au and Ag will be heading as the paper pushers squeeze the fiat juice for all it's worth.
Eventually however, the music stops, or as you stated before, maybe Mr. B decides to run a new lease program, based on physical holdings. Way beyond my scope of imagination - all I know is my little physical group have no option or contract expiration dates. My group can't even read contracts.

Salutations
Block, er IronHead

ORO
(02/04/2001; 02:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47387)
Old Yeller - Interest, nominal and originary
Perhaps interest rates are not what they appear to be. I proposed in an old post that as a result of the Fed being the de-facto guarantor of last resort to the derivatives market, providing the funds needed for settlement of defaulted futures contracts, as well as the guarantor of liquidity in particular and all bank liabilities in general, a few things follow:

First, interest rates on treasuries do not reflect the purely economic interest rates at the heart of credit; the originary interest rate. The rate of discount of future goods against current goods. The treasury interest rate rides below the market's estimated rate of currency depreciation. It is not an indicator of actual "economic" interest rates.

To the extent that particular debt issuers are deemed "too big to fail", interest on their debt does not reflect the market preference for economic interest rates, but the likelihood and degree of government backing for the debt. Economic interest rates are reflected in the spread between treasuries and non-government related debt. The spread, however, contains also the market's estimate of risk of default, along with the originary interest.

The second main result of this observation and reasoning, is that the futures market, where there is a guarantee of delivery of a dollar equivalent of the contract deliverable, is that originary interest should be measurable per product traded as the discount rate of future vs. current (spot) contracts plus the treasury interest rate for the period. Thus contracts that are in complete agreement with the standard pricing model imply no contribution to originary interest. Those with a stronger contango than treasury rates imply, contribute a negative component to the originary interest, while those in backwardation are contributing a positive component to originary interest.

Thus the conditions prevailing in the energy markets, where backwardation is severe, are contributing substantially to the originary interest rate. That is the core interest rate.

Off of this originary interest rate, the spreads beyond treasury rates in the credit markets are priced, with the market's estimate of the default rate added to it.

What this means is that if the originary rate is growing, one may see the spread between treasury rates and commercial rates growing even before a possible growth in default is considered by the market. In a "real economy" sense, the markets are attempting to close down users of scarce resources. The scarcer and more sought after these resources are, thus higher goes the spread their users are paying - both in the futures contracts - and in the debt contracts. The market is attempting to prevent these users from funding their use of the resources, as well as motivating to sell their inventories and current supply contracts rather than use the material for what the market considers to be a wasteful purpose.

The market compensates those willing to forgo current consumption of a commodity by backwardation: providing a realizable margin to those replacing the current supply with a future delivery �which is discounted to current spot prices.

On the credit markets, a restriction is imposed on borrowers who's inputs are the scarcer commodities. Weaker cash flows result from rising input costs relative to prices realizable on product. As cash flows contract for producers of less important goods, they may remain good for those more important goods (and services). Thus default rates would grow for the weaker companies, and they would face higher costs in raising funds in the debt markets and equity markets. Furthermore, average spreads would grow outside of the extension of default risk premiums (which are company specific), which allows the market to raise the general cost of holding inventory and consuming scarce resources needed for current consumption in capital investment.

This implies, by the way, that capping spot prices somewhere along the supply chain to the consumer is the MOST damaging government policy possible, since it distorts the key interest rate message from the market: the originary interest preference.

Thus while credit spreads increasing have the effect of an ACTUAL economic interest rate rise, which may be reflected in lower treasury rates rather than higher commercial or consumer rates, treasury rates reflect the market's estimate of general price rises expected in the period, as well as the Fed's current practices in purchasing or selling them (i.e. over-bidding the market, or under-asking it).

If you can wrap your mind around this, I think your view of the credit markets will be substantially enhanced.


ORO
(02/04/2001; 02:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47388)
Black Blade - terrible bill
The few details spelled out in your 47327 of yesterday are terrible. Energy Einsatzgruppen with regional uberfuhrers are not possibly part of a solution to the energy problem. New authority for the Federal Government can not be further from the country's needs than anything imaginable. What's next, a five year plan?

Republicans are just the fascist reflection of the socialist Democrats. The picture is the same, just the direction is reversed.
Leigh
(02/04/2001; 06:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 47389)
Where is Christian?
Has anyone heard anything from Christian? He has disappeared from both our forum and Gold-Eagle. Hope the dark forces didn't get him!
Knallgold
(02/04/2001; 06:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47390)
Banking tricks
Tree and ORO:I'd like to report of a new version of this banking trick,placing money or Gold for all to see'suggesting "we are liquid".(I didn't know of it before I read ORO's post awhile back)

Last Novenmber,if you played a lottery in Switzerland,you could win 10kg of Gold.Of course it was nicely advertised everywhere.A picture of huge stash of Goldbars together with the information "just make a cross here and you can win 10kg Gold".

"Oh,if they give it away in a lottery there must be a glut of the stuff." Just 10kg can do the trick,and the winner would probably sell it back anyway.

I looked closer to the bars: it was from CSFB.Does Credit Suisse have a problem with Gold liquidity???
Old Yeller
(02/04/2001; 07:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47391)
Kindest regards to Sir Oro


Oro,thank you so much for your prompt and detailed response to my question.I feel I can comprehend the gist of your view of the complexity of the issue,it's going to take a few more wrapping sessions to get it comepletely.

I truly appreciate your time and effort.
ORO
(02/04/2001; 09:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47392)
Randy of the tower - fiat trust and faith
02/02/01; 15:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 47273

Being over-skeptical or lacking in hope regarding the advents of fiat results from the observation of the obvious structural weakness of the systems built and those offered to replace them, including the Euro. In all the debt and fiat currency systems past and present, as well as those proposed for the future, the core problem is not resolved. That being that failure is not punished and success not rewarded in proportion.

The reason for their being a fiat money system � one imposed by government rather than markets � is exactly that the markets are unwilling to embrace them � the reason for this being that they are inherently negative sum systems that do not spontaneously form in the markets.
The dollar reserve system is the result of a political agreement among governments. One initially imposed by a singularly victorious US in Bretton Woods, and by the apparent outright theft of foreign gold held in trust by the US. One maintained by a world squeezed between a communist threat (supported by the US itself � read "The Best Enemy Money Can Buy") and a US military hegemony. Europe, in 1971 had no more to lose by continuing the dollar reserve system since it was no longer in a position to be its victim, having written off accumulated dollar assets as unrecoverable, and being dollar cash flow positive. Never had the market been given a choice in the matter.

Over time, the US government was forced to accommodate dilution of the initial power of the interests that drove the initial creation in the dead of night of the Fed, and by intimidation of the whole of the legislative power into passing the FDR fiat dollar system. The markets reacted in due course to the privileges of the original interests to bring those to naught, and those interests had to dilute their privileges by sharing them with successively more groups. Eventually, many of the short term privileges (that seemed permanent at the time) turned into traps and backfired. Yet none would quit the political game once trapped in it, because government was completely unwilling to relent in powers gained.

As to the fiat debt and cash currency system being in any way shape or form part of what makes civilization, it is quite the contrary. It is exactly what brought the Western Roman Empire to its ultimate demise, that turned the French revolution(s) into self decapitating actions. That brought the Mongols into China, and turned proud Britain of 1900 into the carrier of "British disease" in the 70s. It brought about WWI, and through the destruction of Germany's asset distribution structure it brought about WWII (there, the great inflation concentrated assets and power in the hands of a few industrial conglomerates that merged into a formidable power, who could then bribe their way into total political domination � particularly I.G. Farben).

Debt reflects that trust you speak of. We trust a contractor to provide the goods and services contracted within the limitations of what both sides could have known of market conditions that might affect fulfillment. Fiat debt money (or cash money) is not an article of trust, but of faith. A faith easily lost. A faith in an impossible system, a false messiah. A faith born of propaganda and lies. A faith destined to reverse.

In the days of Yellin, Aragorn, and Aristotle, we discussed the inherent impossibility (my opinion) of a fiat monetary system that reflects the market preferences and allows transparency of the monetary system to economy. I provided the argument that the mere existence of a monetary authority, no matter what its decisions, will prevent proper functioning of the market. Unless a release is allowed for the market to circumvent the official monetary system, it would collapse within a few years to a decade.

During the collapse of a global currency system, the presence of a nearly identical structure such as the Euro would not imply that people would choose it over the one collapsing. Furthermore, unlike the near collapse of the dollar in the 70s, there is no official gold backed redeemable currency, and once the US fails in its role, it is difficult to reason a process of market decision making that ends up not destroying the alternative currencies as well as the dollar. One can reason through a political process that would end up there, but in times of global turmoil, political processes react far too slowly to prevent market forces from playing their role.

Even the transition from Sterling to Dollar required that the dollar be backed by gold and redeemable to the international market at a par value. Doubtless, in order to "take over" the new fiat reserve system will have to look like it offers redeemability in gold, and not only to a few privileged people and organizations.


A couple of notes:
Government's nature as an organization of people (with goals and self interest no different from anyone else's - one does not magically transform into a saint upon assumption of a political or bureaucratic position). This organization having the unique property of possessing control over overwhelming force of violence - well above that of any other organization. Von Mises and Rothbard after him had pointed out that violence is the only way in which economic decisions are thwarted. The only way in which transactions occur without agreement of all sides to the transaction, and without all of them benefiting from it. The forms of violence are theft, kidnapping, and � to an extent � fraud. And their corollaries extortion, bondage, and imposed contracts. These are also the bulk of the actions of government, though disguised in fancy names and painted in color of law (but without its substance).

Centralized coercive decision-making that is characteristic of government and intrinsic to it causes the inverse 20 80 rule (20% of participants are responsible for 80% of the benefit - is turned into 20% is benefited from the consensus of 80% - this is known as the law of crowded trades - see the California electric system where the structure was a compromise agreed to by politicos, bureaucrats, consumer groups, electric companies, where the only beneficiaries were non-participants in the agreement and those who were beyond California's jurisdiction). In other words, government decisions replace trillions of decisions by individuals exercising their judgment and having a vested interest in making the right decisions and an interest in learning from the wrong ones. These are replaced with a fixed set of necessarily wrong decisions.

The law of the crowded trade is a way of saying that most of the people are wrong about most things most of the time. And that excluding the obvious, they will ultimately form a consensus around the wrong path of action, and reach the wrong conclusions. It is also the law of experts. Experts agree about the obvious and reach a wrong consensus with more authority. Their expertise, rather than provide them with a substantial edge in making the right calls provides them instead with a surefooted stride while walking off the edge of the cliff. Furthermore, experts tend to support whomever pays their fees at the expense of truth and their reporting of reality.

From this also rises the "law of unintended consequences" where the experts combine with the various interests to drive imposed centralized decisions which would have an adverse effect through unexpected reactions. The reactions would be unexpected because the experts and the interests involved can not avoid reaching the conditions of a "crowded trade".

------------------------

Regarding the issue of mark to market regimes, the important issue is that statute requires actions of commercial institutions (particularly banks) according to criteria tied to their reported assets. This means that under particular circumstances all institutions holding particular assets would be FORCED by statute to act against their judgment (and interests).

Pandagold
(02/04/2001; 10:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47393)
The power of GOLD (or who chops down the tree?)

Fellow knights, or, at least, those of you who care to read my postings, which I share with you not for the purpose of indoctrination, but merely to help you consider, from time to time, the more provocative ideas, that by their very nature can sometimes jolt the beliefs of those with the more conservative, and 'palatable', thoughts of what makes this world tick, I offer you now the following.

It will be of particular interest to those who doubt 'the real power of gold' - GOLD, the focal point of what this forum is all about, if I am wrong, then I have been misleading myself, and apologise.

The quote is taken from a publication sponsored by N M Rothschilds, and published by The Bank of England

^ "........His (Nathan Meyer Rothschild) breakthrough came when he succeeded against all odds in assembling enough GOLD from across Europe to allow Wellington's army to pursue and defeat Napoleon at Waterloo....................."

Stop and consider this for a moment. This man, according to 'his story' was, only a short time earlier (less than 20yrs), living in the Jewish ghetto of Frankfurt.

Now, here he is being the only person that can assemble so much GOLD.

England, at that time was well into reaping the rewards of it being the birthplace of the great Industrial Revolution. In other words it was almost at the peak of its greatness in terms of wealth and power, while the rest of the world was still, apart from a few small pockets, an agrarian society We had a pretty good, well trained and disciplined, though not large, army, we had a powerful navy that had already beaten the best of Napoleon's - destroying it at the battle of Aboukir.

Yet, in order to pursue, and defeat, Napoleon, we needed - what - GOLD! ?

Now, I have never heard of the British army, or any other army for that matter, firing gold bullets, or using gold in its military machine. The army couldn't eat gold (though I believe it is edible). So, why did we need GOLD? Why didn't Rothschild just assemble
donations of ordinary currency - we had enough pounds (stirling) as we were the leading industrial nation? Our sea power was unchallenged.

Could it be that the value of our 'paper' would have been vulnerable, as would our nation, and all it stood for, had Napoleon won?

And to whom was England now in eternal debt?

'He who has the gold rules'. That is the way it always has been, is, and always will be, until something, which even my open mind cannot foresee as being a possibility in many, many, lifetimes, comes to change it.

Who is moving this world then? Do you believe the US president? Alan Greenspan? Or are they merely tools that can be changed so easily once their usefulness has passed its sell by date.

What (who) cuts down the tree - the chainsaw, or the man operating it, or the man who employs the operator, and orders it chopped down.

These are the sort of questions I pose to myself when I am sat with a coffee a good cigar, and in search of enlightenment. As I have said, I share them with you, as fellow wanderers along those passages of life where there appears an absence of light, to take, to consider, or assign to the garbage basket as your fancy dictates.

PG
Pandagold
(02/04/2001; 10:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47394)
Fiat (A true story with a message)

There has been much discussion about 'fiat' money. I would like to make a contribution but in a lighter, slightly more off beat note. Yet it does tell a story with a message.

Until recently, I was the, dubiously proud, owner of a Fiat car. One doesn't really need a car living in the environs of London as there is a reasonably efficient public transport system which most foreigners seem to appreciate and applaud, but we Brits are always ready to complain about.

However, I bought this car mainly because it was cheap, in good condition and economic to run.

There was another reason, for which I am glad I chose the Fiat. In London there is, or has been, a plague of car thefts. However, I found I could leave my car anywhere � even with the door unlocked, and it would always be there. I even reduced my insurance premium by having the section which covered theft removed.

One Christmas, my daughter had bought me a steering lock to help guard against theft, which brought howls of laughter whenever I told anyone. In their laughter they told me that I had better make the attracive steering lock itself secure as they would take that and leave the car,

I was even told of a man who had approached Fiat with a patent foolproof locking system for their vehicles, but was turned down with the retort " Who the hell would steal a Fiat?"

I said earlier, that I had this car until recently. It was still in running condition, but had passed a car's normal sell-by date. I had stopped using it as I preferred the public transport rather than battle London traffic. So the car was left sitting parked at the curb, all doors unlocked with everything but the words 'take me' posted on it.

It sat there for weeks and weeks. I found it was finally collected by the local council the other day in accordance with legislation covering abandoned cars.

I wondered if this was why the Italians named it FIAT. After all, their understanding of the meaning has certainly been brought home to them in their currrency. Just $480 makes you an Italian (lira) millionaire

Could there one day be a car called the" Dollar" - one that didn't require a locking system? I hope it never comes to that, as much as I would like gold to rise.

Au-some
(02/04/2001; 10:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47395)
(No Subject)
Thanks to all for the great food for thought served up here. Even the "brain candy" is nutritious,i.e. "...empires of the future will be empires of the mind..." and "...sorry for the long letter, I didn't have time to write a short one...".
Sir Journeyman, regarding a nickname for fiat money, has anyone yet suggested "Alan's Green Spams"?
tedw
(02/04/2001; 10:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 47396)
Silver leasing
http://www.usagold.com
Im still looking for some answers about silver leasing.



With gold it makes sense. Central Banks have these huge store of gold in their vaults doing nothing. So they lease it to earn an income, and at the same time supress the price of gold which makes the central bankers fiat currency
look good. Makes sense.

But the Central banks dont have huge stores of silver do they? So I ask the question again, who is doing the silver leasing and why?

IronHead
(02/04/2001; 10:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47397)
Oro - RE: #47392 - Release??
Sir Oro - Ausome, another day to study "one" of your thoughts!

Could you elaborate on your mention of a necessary "release" for markets to function effectively? This was apparently before my time, and was not privy to the discussion between the aforementioned Wizards.

Which market are you speaking of, or is this a generic thought applying to virtually all markets, ie. currency, bond, gold, etc, which influence the monetary system? Would this be an inference to the underground economy, or even the black gold market?

Thank you for the time you spend here.

Salutations
IronHead
Chris Powell
(02/04/2001; 11:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47398)
South African mineworkers union endorses GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/640Murphy's trip is starting to show
results.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Henri
(02/04/2001; 11:53:01 MDT - Msg ID: 47399)
Thank you, JavaMan and IronHead
for your kind efforts in the nominations of my Post 47277. Myself I don't particularly think it would be appropriate as my post has little to do with gold and more with my distress at finding our Trail Guide in a huff.

I find it more than sufficient to know that some folks read my posts and that they are allowed to be enshrined here on just the regular board without their being deleted and/or me being tossed overboard for posting non-relevant rantings.

Mr. Gresham, Cobra(too), and Tree...you are truly welcome to my thoughts and I am glad my musings have been found useful.

I thought this piece might make a good screenplay.
Knallgold
(02/04/2001; 12:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47400)
contest
A trial with a sophisticated creation,I think you englishspeaking persons will find the right sound to pronounce it.
Lets merge money,phoney,funny,Fannie into one hybrid (why the hell sounds this all so equal in english???):
Phunney.
rc
(02/04/2001; 12:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47401)
silver leasing
@tedwI don't know either. And nobody seems to know. People alluded to China selling. Others said Buffett was leasing it. Still hard to swallow that China might sell her silver at bargain prices. Same for Buffett, he should know that he will never see his silver again no matter of much paper he will be paid for.

Still, there must definitely be several hundred millions oz of silver above ground. Maybe just enough to cover the next two years. But again, who is so dumb as to let silver go away at these prices? Scratching my head.
justamereBear
(02/04/2001; 12:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47402)
Tedw 47396 Oro 47392 Journeyman contest

Tedw
There are others, other than central banks, leasing gold. Anyone who wants to earn an income from a non revenue producing asset such as gold or silver can, and does, providing they have enough to make it worthwhile, lease it. Not that I think he does, but Buffet would be a prime candidate with his huge store of non revenue producing silver.

You seem bogged down with the idea that ONLY central banks can or do, lease things. In the gold market they are a big player, but not the only player.

Oro.
That is the best summation I have seen on a subject that I find one of the most significant aspects of the subject matter discussed on this forum. Hear!! Hear!!!

Journeyman
Your contest has brightened my day several times. If there was a HOF for ideas, then I would be the first to step up to nominate. You are going to have trouble topping that idea, but I have faith you will
Best regards.
j'Bear
SHIFTY
(02/04/2001; 12:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47403)
Gold Fields raises stakes in takeover plan
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2422569E6003F2C2A?OpenDocumentGold Fields, South Africa's second largest gold producer, reported a 19 per cent increase in dollar earnings (38 per cent in Rands) for the December quarter proving why it is coveted by rivals AngloGold and, possibly, Barrick Gold. The group also has abundant economic gold reserves: about 70 million ounces at $250 per ounce. This increases to 79 million ounces at $300 per ounce (R7.8/$1.00), the gold price assumption used by Placer Dome recently.

The quarter-on-quarter improvement includes a one tonne decline in gold production owing to seismic activities and other production hitches in key West Wits mines, Driefontein and Kloof. Stripping out the group's lossmakers � Oryx and St. Helena � adds a further 10 per cent to earnings. Striking too is the cost control. Cash costs have been hauled in to $191 per ounce although local currency (rand) depreciation has played a major part.

The outcome for shareholders is a handsome R1.05 dividend representing about 50 per cent of earnings. This includes an interim payment and last year's second half payment which had been deferred owing to the prospect of a merger between Gold Fields and Canadian group Franco Nevada.

Gold Fields chairman Chris Thompson said the merger was "legally dead", but he fully expects to resuscitate the proposal if Barrick approaches Gold Fields with its own takeover plans. The attitude is that shareholders should be allowed to choose between two foreign partners assuming the South African government does not turn down Barrick's overtures as it did those of Franco Nevada. This is an intriguingly poised affair.

So too is AngloGold's now apparent desire to incorporate Gold Fields. Gold Fields officials say they expect AngloGold to come at them at any time. But managing director Ian Cockerill adds there's no bid premium in the Gold Fields share price which means AngloGold will have to pay.

The recent gain in Gold Fields to about R29.00 a share is largely based on its recovery fundamentals, Cockerill adds. What is a good value for Gold Fields? According to one analyst, Barrick is prepared to offer $5.00 for Gold Fields (R38.00 at a R7.60 conversion rate). Gold Fields touched and intraday level of R30.00 a share.

St. Helena

In the meantime, Cockerill says the group is seriously taking an inundation of inquiries over selling of the Free State province mine St. Helena. The mine reported a $2.1 million operating loss in the quarter which Thompson believes is unsustainable.

A black empowerment deal is being contemplated no doubt accelerated by the businessman Tokyo Sexwale who recently joined the Gold Fields board. Cockerill says cooperation with Harmony Gold, which is weighing up similar initiatives, is a possibility.

There's more patience with Oryx, another Free State mine, which halved its operating loss. Although a loss is still a loss, Cockerill believes the group must stick by its promise to give the mine two-years to perform. "We will review Oryx at the year-end but it is a free option on the gold price and has a ring-fencing plan we don't want to walk away from," he says. Gold Fields last year arranged for Oryx to share a tax base with St. Helena and Beatrix, operations within the same gold field. It's also a relatively young orebody.

All the other operations performed well. Operating profit quarter on quarter increased $9 million to $50 million. However, it's the interim figures that are most impressive: net operating profit has almost doubled and net earnings has grown four times year-on-year. "What has been most pleasing is that the team has not over-spent, working conditions and underground safety has improved, and we have a clean balance sheet," Cockerill said.


SHIFTY
(02/04/2001; 12:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 47404)
Chris Thompson: Executive chairman, Gold Fields Limited
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2852569E7000696B1?OpenDocumentMONEYWEB: Chris Thompson, the executive chairman of Gold Fields Limited, joins us now. Chris, you had a cracking December quarter that you have announced the results of - net earnings up 38% to R277m. But I guess the main thing is that the cash costs are down to below $200 an ounce and, even at these gold prices, that means good profits?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Alec, yes. We took them down from $206 to $191 in US dollar terms. But, interestingly enough, they've also come down in rand-per-ton terms, from 252 to 249, so this is what we were looking for, that we've been striving for, for some time. The rand-per-ton figure has always been quite obstinate an the inflationary environment in South Africa, so it's very pleasing to be able to get it down.

MONEYWEB: You've also announced the dividend of 105c. Why that is relevant is that you did say in the past that you would hold back on your dividend payments until the Franco-Nevada deal had been concluded. Franco-Nevada, the North American company that you were hoping to merge with - the financial authorities in South Africa didn't allow you to do it. But the fact that you are paying a dividend, does that mean that that merger with Franco-Nevada is now finally dead?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I won't say it's finally dead, Alec, because at a stroke we could resurrect it, if the government would reconsider. Both parties would always be keen to pursue it if we could, because we think it's still a tremendously value-adding opportunity. But we did come to the determination that asking shareholders to wait indefinitely was asking too much, and we though we better pay it out.

MONEYWEB: When you say "at a stroke" it could be reopened, what kind of a stroke would that have to be?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Government consent.

MONEYWEB: And has government given you any indication that they might be changing their minds?

CHRIS THOMPSON: No. There's nothing, frankly, that we could say that gave us strong encouragement to think that they were going to reopen it at the moment. They did at one point indicate they might reconsider it, they've never told us that they wouldn't, or that it's now formally off the agenda, so we remain hopeful.

MONEYWEB: What about the speculation that's doing the round that Gold Fields Limited itself is now being pursued - and specifically by an Anglogold Barrick consortium?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I really can't comment on Barrick. We have today admitted that I have had conversations with Bobby Godsell - informal ones - during which he has acknowledged that he would like to see an alliance between Gold Fields and Anglogold created. But there is nothing either formal or informal in the form of a proposal on the table.

MONEYWEB: And the fact that Anglo American Corporation now holds 17% of your equity, after the recent deal on First Rand. Has that meant that you needed to get a little closer to Anglo American? You said you had discussions with Anglogold's chief executive, but what about the parent company?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I'm not sure that the parent company particularly wants Gold Fields. It would be Anglogold that would want us. So on first principles, there's no real reason to talk to Anglo American, although Anglo American via Anglogold would be an interested party. In the first instance, we would have to talk to Anglogold.

MONEYWEB: Chris, any update on your platinum prospect in the Arctic Circle?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Alec, we gave a quick one today. There is nothing very significant to report other than on what we call the Penicat SJ Reef, which had previously been drilled to about 100 metres, and looks very promising because it has an extremely long strike link, some 25 km. But, in the most promising area of it, we have drilled down now and traced the reef down to 500 metres. We don't have the air face, so I can't tell you that it is particularly significant, but if it does assay at the kind of grades that we found at surface, then the significance is that it could add to potential tonnage in ounces very quickly. But we won't know the answers until April, when it's all analysed and put together. It will take a while yet.

MONEYWEB: So that is some time off. But the other thing that isn't far off - the gold price of $266 an ounce and as you said in your official announcement today, that this is too low for the long-term survival of the gold industry?

CHRIS THOMPSON: It is. $266 is not enough to justify the development of most possible new deposits around the world, and the thing that I'm finding concerning is that - less so in South Africa, but particularly so in North America - the declining gold price is causing a dry-up of exploration, so there is no new reserve being created. But much worse, it's causing major mining companies to have to write off reserves, write off gold bearing material which would, in the past, have been economic but is no longer economic. It is a source of concern. The available underground reserves around the world are contracting, and contracting quite fast.

MONEYWEB: That is Chris Thompson, the executive chairman of Gold Fields Limited and, as you might have heard, one of the most exciting parts of the group at the moment is that they are prospecting for platinum in the Arctic Circle. Talk about going North

lamprey_65
(02/04/2001; 12:52:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47405)
Good Read
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=2373.topicEnjoy :-)
Pandagold
(02/04/2001; 13:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47406)
The Odyssey of the good ship,"Agenda"


There is an abundance of books, old and new, which purport to understand the ills that have beset national economic policies, and their inter-relationship within the world's economic framework. Most put forward their flavour of cures, some old, some new. Placed end to end they would probably stretch across America.

Economic theories abound, some have become doctrines, almost religions, and are interchangeably practised from time to time by those charged with steering their ship through the murky waters of international trade and finance, though each may present a contrast in principle to that followed by a previous 'pilot'

Get thirty of the leading economists together, though they be products of the world's top business schools, and you will find there are enough differing opinions on how to tackle one of the more simpler economic problems that beset us, than there are days in a month.

What chance is there then for major issues, and especially (excuse me Saddam), the 'mother of all problems' that faces humanity now?

The complications that cause this are many, and although this has been with us for centuries - especially since trade transcended simple barter, the complexities, today, have reached proportions that I am quite safe in saying absolutely NO ONE, not even, this so far revered, Alan Greenspan understands them. If you were close to him, and got a few drinks down him, I feel sure you could get him to admit it.

Economic theory falls apart, in practice, for the same simple reasons that fundamental theory on racehorse 'form' falls apart, when put to practice for the intended betterment of one's pecuniary position, it fails to consider the interjection of professionally organised, highly skilled, manipulation.

I withdrew myself from one of the world's leading economic schools, because I was frustrated by the way this factor was not even considered. Yet, time and time again we see economists stumbling forward, advising companies and governments while leaning on their favourite, economic theory, crutch.

You are familiar with the well-known clich� -'Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive'. In economics (macro and micro), and world monetary, and fiscal policy, how long do you think, highly skilled, deception has been going on? We have now arrived at a very tangled web indeed, far too tangled for anyone to un-weave, or to discern how the myriad of individual strands interweave and connect.

What Greenspan is doing, therefore, is giving it his best shot, but his main concern is not to bring his ship, the 'Agenda', home to the benefit of all its passengers, his main concern is for the 'elite' in first class who have chartered him. (And the ship carries only enough lifeboats for them).

It should be noted that on the tragic voyage of the Titanic, it is said that a contributory cause of the disaster was that the highly experienced Capt Smith' s better judgement was over-ruled by persuasive pressure from a representative of his 'powers that be', the company president Bruce Ismay - though this was never proved as is so often the case.

You can be assured, Greenspan will keep a grip on the POG as hard as he will that ships wheel. To let go, or relax too much, now, would be to warn all those passengers (to use an apt pun) that he has 'lost his grip'. Alarm bells that we were heading straight for inflation, would start ringing

Then there would be panic. Why? Because POG has become synonymous with inflation, safe havens, disaster, you name it. You cannot change overnight what has become part of the human psyche for centuries, and for good reason.

To Greenspan, there is one hope of salvation on the horizon, a small island, un-chartered until recently, that may offer a 'safe haven' if only temporary. If he can make
this island before disaster strikes, his hopes are that all will be well.

He knows that there, he will be afforded all that is needed while they wait for the present storm to subside, as the island is controlled by TPTB , for whom he is their trusted servant.

The name of the island - (Euro) land!

About other, possibly bigger, storms later? Their policy has always been 'one storm at a time�, and to keep the good ship, �Agenda�, as much as possible, right on course until they reach their promised land.

ge
(02/04/2001; 13:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 47407)
(No Subject)
Once upon a time, I read book about fiat money at the FAME site (www.fame.org).
I believe it was written at the late 1970's. I cannot recall the author's name.

The FAME site was re-organized afterwards and, unfortunately, many articles including
this one were deleted.

The argument was roughly as follows:

* Aristocracy, by definition is government by a privileged class.
* During the middle ages the privilege of the aristocracy was "private property".
* Currently, the privilege of the aristocracy is "the right issue fiat money".

The author argued that the establishment of the Federal Reserve, historically corresponded
to the time frame in which Republican Rome was transformed into Imperial Rome (Ceaser's time),
and events would eventually lead to Feudal Middle Ages if left unchecked.

I believe that he has asked valid questions: Why should a minority be given
the privilege of issuing fiat money? How can we reconcile democracy and granting
privileges to a minority? What would stop the aristocrats from demanding more
privileges once the first privilege (the right to issue fiat) is universally
acknowledged?

...

In 1972, Italian scholar Umberto Eco wrote an essay titled "Towards a New Middle Age".
He asked, "what is required to build a new middle age". His answer:
A disintegrating "Big Peace" (military, civil, social and cultural peace); he then
went on to examine the details. In the concluding paragraph of the essay, he reminded
the reader of an ancient Chinese curse : "I hope you live in interesting times"!
SteveH
(02/04/2001; 13:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47408)
Hard landing
http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m1181/2000_Sept/67886149/p4/article.jhtml?term=fed+prevent+recessionsnippet:

Continued from page 3

MELTDOWN OR SLOWDOWN?

The notion that the strong U.S. economy "saved" the rest of the world during the global financial turmoil of the late 1990s has become increasingly fashionable. Even U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently referred to the United States as "the main engine of global growth." However, this proposition is not strictly true. Since the United States accounts for slightly more than a quarter of global economic activity, it certainly exerts a powerful influence. But positive correlations between U.S. business cycles and those of other countries have not, historically, been that high. Among leading industrial countries, only the United Kingdom and Canada have displayed business cycles that move together with those of the United States. Indeed, if the U.S. economy helped prevent a global recession following the financial crises of 1997 and 1998, it was precisely because its business cycle was not closely synchronized with many other economies. Otherwise the United States would have fallen into a recession along with the crisis-ridden regions.

Nevertheless, a U.S. stock market crash and subsequent domestic recession would have a major impact on the rest of the world. The effects would flow through four channels: trade, capital flows and exchange rates, commodity prices, and financial contagion.

International Trade \ In a deep recession, U.S. consumers' appetite for goods and services would diminish and imports would decline. The net deficit in trade in goods and services might even disappear over several years. Essentially, the United States would export unemployment by reducing its demand for what the rest of the world has to sell.

If this adjustment were to hit all trading partners proportionally, the direct effect would be biggest on Canada, where economic activity could decline by up to 8 percent over several years as U.S. trade patterns adjusted. The impact on Mexico would be almost as large, with a potential reduction in GD P of about 6 percent. This is hardly surprising, since exports to the United States accounted for 32 and 23 percent of the Canadian and Mexican economies, respectively, in 1999. The Western Hemisphere and developing countries in Asia would see a reduction in GDP of less than 2 percent, although there would be larger effects on the small, open economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. Central and Eastern European countries would not be too hard hit by the direct trade effect since they conduct most of their commerce with the European Union. The trade impact on Japan, the United Kingdom, and the euro zone would be small--a contraction of about 0.6 percent of their respective GDPs. The 11 Western European nat ions comprising the euro zone export only 2.2 percent of their GDP to the United States; the United Kingdom, 2.7 percent; and Japan, only 3 percent. Provided the U.S. trade adjustment occurred over several years, most countries would avoid recessions caused by weaker U.S. demand for their goods and services.

Journeyman
(02/04/2001; 14:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47409)
Supporting evidence @ORO msg#: 47392

Not that ORO needs any help, but here are a couple of quotes that
dovetail with ORO's msg#: 47392.

. . . Though an indispensable requirement for the functioning of
an extensive order of cooperation of free people, money has
almost from its first appearance been so shamelessly abused by
governments that it has become the prime source of distrubance of
all self-ordering processes in the extended order of human
cooperation. The history of government management of money has,
except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud
and deception. In this respect, governments have proved far more
immoral than any private agency supplying distinct kinds of money
in competition possibly could have been. -F. A. Hayek, _THE
FATAL CONCEIT The Errors of Socialism_, (Chicago: The University
of Chicago Press 1988), p. 103.

"From the point of view of this insight [paper money is cheaper
than gold and/or silver] one may call wasteful all expenditures
incurred for increasing the quantity of money. ... It was this
idea that led Adam Smith and Ricardo to the opinion that it was
very beneficial to reduce the cost of producing money by
resorting to the use of paper printed currency. However, things
appear in a different light to the students of monetary history.
*If one looks at the catastrophic consequences of the great paper
money inflations, one must admit that the expensiveness of gold
production is the minor evil.* -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action A
Treatise on Economics, Third Revised Edition (Chicago, Illinois:
Contemporary Books, Inc. 1966), pg. 422 -available also from
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp)

Regards,
Journeyman
AUtistic
(02/04/2001; 14:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 47410)
Full Circle?
http://www.home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html For sure, this is not 1934, however, the familiarity does breed MY contempt.
This article shows just what Midas, Howe, & GATA are up against!!!!!!
AUtistic
(02/04/2001; 14:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47411)
correction
http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html Dorry, screwed up the first one!!
AUtistic
(02/04/2001; 14:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47412)
Not a great day!
Can you tell I'm fighting some flu!?? Dorry?????
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 14:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47413)
Pandagold msg#: 47406
>>>>Economic theory falls apart, in practice, for the same simple reasons that fundamental theory on racehorse 'form' falls apart, when put to practice for the intended betterment of one's pecuniary position, it fails to consider the interjection of professionally organized, highly skilled,
manipulation. <<<<<

That would be doping the horse, of course. I see another parallel there in that while the Racing Form tells the statistics and empirical potentials of the participants, the actual event has a mind of its own.

>>> ancient quip: "Horse-sense is what keeps horses from betting on what people will do."


Re-Your reminder of the Titanic captain being pressured to maintain the record breaking pace for the PR of the maiden voyage.

I hadn't noticed before, the exact parallel to the Challenger launch. The high profile "Teacher in space" mission was ordered "Go" against the strong opinion of the Thiokol engineer who KNEW the O-rings wouldn't seal at that temperature.

Herein lies a window into your current thread regarding the hidden TPTB as the cause of all evil.

Who caused the Challenger disaster? The government for insisting on the glory of the mission? The engineer for not having the fortitude to proclaim his knowledge loud and clear despite the consequences? Or, all those who knew, as the countdown continued, that the cold could cause the catastrophe?

I got the news a few hours after it happened and called a close friend at Goddard. They were all saying that it was an O-ring failure due to the cold, yet it was several days before that was admitted publically. The empirical truth was too specific and broadly known for a cover-up.

The engineer who was the �Star witness' to negligent homicide, suffered a barrage of descreditment and was pushed into obscurity, if I recall correctly.
Perplexed
(02/04/2001; 15:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 47414)
Pandagold #47406


Very good post. I agree that Alan Greenspans mission is to accomplish the agenda of TPTB, however, I see a major shift in that agenda from accumulation of additional wealth, to the preservation of that which already been accquired.

In my opinion, their manipulation of law, which has guaranteed the massive accumulation of wealth has proven far too effective, in short they have outfoxed themselves, and they are suddenly aware of the fact.

The ultimate capital is human labor, and time is the most valuable of possessions, once gone it can never be replaced, thus anything that it is traded for is worth less than the invested time.

As the result of greed, those producing the wealth, world wide, have been massively short changed. While a relatively few are required to work extremely long hours just to maintain an existance in poverty, others are denied even rudamentary employment.

While thus acquiring title to virtually all produced wealth, these parasites, masquarding as human beings, have reduced a profitable work force to a potentially and extremely formidable global army, and time is rapidly approaching critical mass.

Perplexed




Henri
(02/04/2001; 15:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47415)
Perplexed
If wealth is at risk by a paper crumble...twas not wealth to begin with...but was only an interim gamble to acquire the means to secure wealth
IronHead
(02/04/2001; 15:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47416)
Pandagold (who chops down the tree) - Your #47393
Sir Pandagold (my favorite bullion coin by the way)

Don't all whom wish to live in a house made from wood, ultimately cause the tree to be chopped down?

And, are our desires merely the tool used as the lever against us by those whom care to manipulate?

Always read and enjoy your "provocation" as "[not] for the purpose of indoctrination" - keep it coming.

Salutations
IronHead

Henri
(02/04/2001; 15:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47417)
Still Perplexed
You said:
"...The ultimate capital is human labor, and time is the most valuable of possessions, once gone it can never be replaced, thus anything that it is traded for is worth less than the invested time."

Human Labor is the ultimate RESOURCE (from a human perspective).

Time means little outside the paper world. When the paper crumbles, there will still be human resources and time to expend them. This time hopefully on worthwhile endeavors.

What is in jeapordy are time essential representations of accrued gambling tokens that are now issued out of the back room without anyone needing to "buy-in" to the game. Anyone can now join in the game just by going to the back room door and asking for some tokens. The trick is to cash out your winnings for wealth before everyone left in the game figures out that the real chips were cashed in long ago and ...THERE IS NO POT!
IronHead
(02/04/2001; 15:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47418)
Henri and Perplexed
Good Sirs - If we in the hinterlands recognize true wealth for what it is, can we doubt for more than a "nano" second that Sir Perplexed's TPTB don't have this road mapped, poured, and ready to drive?
Henri
(02/04/2001; 15:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47419)
Sir IronHead
Yes. But the funny thing is they really don't have to DO anything...just wait for the paper to burn and then bring out a small fraction of their accumulated wealth (Which did not grow but did not burn either) and start a new poker game.
beesting
(02/04/2001; 16:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 47420)
Using Gold as Collateral!
Ever ask yourself, why has the word collateral recently been omitted from economic discussions in newspapers? I did!

First lets give a dictionary definition of collateral:
"Serving to support or reinforce".(There were many others.)

Now I have seen the phrase,"Gold(or Silver) is a non income producing asset!"
Well lets blow that statement out of the water right now in simple terms!(I just again viewed a video named "The Money Masters", so I'm fired up.)
The video explains in detail how fractional reserve lending works.(For a good explanation see Sirs Aristotle,ORO, or Randy formerly Town Criers, works above.)

Now, lets say you or me had saved the equivalent, in Gold, of a 400 ounce good delivery Gold bar.(Excepted as money worldwide at Central Banks!) and we decided to apply for a bank charter in a small country called Banania.
Using our 400 ounces of Gold as "Collateral" we could lend, with the approval of the local Dept. of Treasury and our Bank Charter, a percentage...in paper dollars...of the dollar value of our Gold.
Lets say the Gold is worth $100,000 an easy round number.
Our charter allows us to lend or borrow 50% of the value of the Gold, in this case $50,000. So we write a check backed by our Gold(an I.O.U.) to the local Central Bank in the amount of $25,000 for the purchase of $25,000 worth of paper or equilivent local "money".
Than, using ""Fractional Reserve Lending",we're in business!
According to the video I just watched we are allowed to "Lend Out" 8 to 10 times our credit line($50,000)including using the cash we just bought from the Central Bank. Lets say we use 9 times. 9 times $50,000 is $450,000.(We also are allowed to take deposits)
So, our bank lends over a period of time $450,000 in safe, secured by good collateral, loans to the local borrowing public.(One of the loans could be to ourselves to build a Bank building.) All figures are for example only.

So now lets see what the assets of our bank are:
1. We still have 400 ounces of Gold valued at $100,000.
2. We now have and hold $450,000 worth of interest bearing loans, hopefully secured by sound collateral.
3. We owe $25,000 to the Central Bank.
4. We also have a secure storage facility and display a sign that states: We Store Gold & Valuables for a Fee!
Here is the math and totals:
Gold value still $100,000 + $450,000 in secured loans = $550,000 minus $25,000 (I.O.U. to CB)=$525,000 total assets of bank. We just made $425,000 for owning outright 400 ounces of Gold!!!
Lets put this on a smaller scale;
I have a few ounces of Gold, and a great idea for a safe business or safe investment but not quite enough cash'so I go to the local coin shop or pawnbroker and ask him to lend me 1/2 the value of my Gold and not sell my Gold for a specified period of time, which he does.As time goes by, I am one of the few that gets real lucky and my business or investment flourishes. I get my Gold out of "Hock" and live happily ever after. The point is "Gold" used as collateral has always had and still does, the potential for producing revenue, just not in the same way as the "paper pushers" are used to!
------------------------------------------------------------
Some trivia:
What do you think California used as collateral for the recent $10,000,000,000.00 loan they obtained by creating an emergency bond without taxpayer approval?
Answer:
The taxpayers of California! Question, wouldn't someone who is involuntarily forced to pay a debt he/she didn't create be a slave?
Involuntary Servitude is specifically prohibited Amendment XIII U.S. Constitution Ratified Dec.6 1865!
*Annual interest on $10,000,000,000 is $600,000,000 at 6% rate. Would you like to have a peice of that pie?
------------------------------------------------------------
More Trivia:
From the video I just watched:
Former President ***Andrew (Stonewall)Jackson(7th U.S.President[1829-1837]),lived in Nashville Tenn. was the only U.S. President in the history of the U.S.to not only balance the Federal budget, he succeeded in closing down the U.S. privately owned Federal Reserve Bank of that time period. Also, the United States has had FOUR Federal Reserve type Banks in it's short history.
*** I think Stonewall meant the same as "Ironhead" a high compliment, in this case.
Thanks for Reading....beesting.





Beowulf
(02/04/2001; 16:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 47421)
Nuclear Power
http://www.e-marine-inc.com/products/roofs/shingles.htmlBlack Blade,
With all the talk of new nuclear plants has anyone studied the situation in uranium and whether there is enough supply? What about uranium mining, hasn't that been on the decline for a while?

Also, you keep refering to solar power as needing large open expanses of land. Have you seen the new advances in solar for home use? Click the link above to see one type of solar roof shingle. Of course there are others available to supply a single home. Along with a solar water heater, compact fluorescent lights, and a super high efficency refrigerator you can pretty much run off grid and never pay state energy taxes again. Some States even offer alternative energy tax deductions depending on what type you install.

You can also do a search of the web for Searl Effects Generator and see what some people are trying to develop. There are many sites available. Below is the main website of the inventor. A generator that runs off natural magnetic forces. This is still in the development stage I think. http://searleffect.com/

Beowulf
slingshot
(02/04/2001; 16:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47422)
OH! HENRI!
New poker game. msg47419 A new poker game and the HOUSE has a new set of rules?
Those who have gold, and those who do not. I wonder what the wild card would be?
Slingshot
Beowulf
(02/04/2001; 16:38:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47423)
Nuclear Drops Cost Below Coal
http://www.solaraccess.com/sanews/showstory.asp?id=215&siteid=10212/2/01 1:26:57 PM

WASHINGTON, DC - For the first time in more than a decade, production costs at U.S. nuclear power plants are the lowest of any electricity source and have dropped below coal-fired power plants, according to figures from the Utility Data Institute.

In 1999, production costs for fuel, operations and maintenance at nuclear reactors averaged 1.83¢/kWh, lower than coal at 2.07¢ or oil-fired plants at 3.18¢ and natural gas plants at 3.52¢/kWh. In 1998, average production costs for coal plants were 2.07¢ with nuclear at 2.13¢, oil-fired units at 3.24¢ and natural gas plants at 3.3¢/kWh, says UDI. Recent spikes in the price for oil and natural gas are not reflected in these data.

"At a time when the eyes of the nation are on energy prices, nuclear power's re-emergence as the low production-cost leader is a reminder that the United States needs a diverse energy portfolio that relies in no small part on nuclear energy," says Marvin Fertel of the Nuclear Energy Institute. "Electricity consumers of all kinds, as well as state and federal lawmakers, should take notice that nuclear power plants provide tremendous value-economically, environmentally and with regard to reliability, energy security and stable electricity price."

NEI qualifies its claim by limiting its comparison to the "major reliable" sources of electricity, and does not consider renewables to be competitive.

Average production costs at nuclear plants have not been lower than those at coal-fired facilities since the mid-1980s, when safety improvements caused the nuclear industry to lose its long- standing cost advantage.

Production costs do not represent the complete cost of electricity at nuclear reactors, concedes Fertel, but low production costs allow facilities to compete in the market after capital costs, property taxes and other expenses are considered.

"Assuming electricity markets average between 2.5 and 3 cents per kilowatt-hour on a total cost basis, U.S. nuclear power plants already are very competitive," he says. "They are stabilizing the electrical grid and helping to avert brownouts and blackouts, and they are doing so economically and without emitting any pollutants into the atmosphere."

A NEI survey released on January 23 indicates that the energy crisis in California has increased recognition of the value of nuclear power plants across the U.S. Support for building new nuclear reactors has increased in all regions, especially in the west, with 51 percent of participants stating that "we should definitely build more nuclear energy plants in the future," compared to 42 percent last October.


Beowulf - of course not a lot of nuclear engineers are being produced in the U.S. anymore. So who would run the new plants? Most nuclear engineers nowadays are found in the military.
IronHead
(02/04/2001; 16:42:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47424)
Sir Henri - Aye and By Golly
Ahoy Captain - You seem to have these waters pretty well charted, and this lowly slipshod on the poop deck agrees on your sightings. A few bergs to be sure a coming.

If I could be so impertinent to ask a question, of your opinion as to how this poker game will play out when {they} DO nothing and start the new game. This I agree will happen verily, but the transitory process during which time paper burns, will have many of us in an old school thought pattern, confused, such that many of our brethren will fold early and scared. Who amongst us won't be turning sail when the {paper} POG goes up 2-3-500%, and summarily is dropped a couple pegs on the mast, thru a slow to die paper manipulation? Who is to say that even a Giant won't sell into a couple rallies, anticipating a top. [No dispersions meant in this towards Sir TG, only an example of the confusion that will allay many of lesser conviction, and staying power, as they see some "giants" moving mountains]

My fear is that we may get exactly what we've surmised as possible, with these paper games, and the new game is going to be as hard to figure as the old game. So often we've talked what should happen, I'm curious what we'll say and do when it has happened. What say ye Matey?

Salutations
IronHead

PS. Great to have you back Sir Henri, aka Bascom Toadvine?
Henri
(02/04/2001; 16:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47425)
Sir Beesting!
Excellant Post...my sentiments exactly. Gold (wealth)should be used to acquire the means to generate additional wealth...it should never just be sold (spent).
Perplexed
(02/04/2001; 16:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47426)
Henri


You may refer to human labor or time, by what ever term you so desire, but the fact remains when I exchange 10 hr. of my time trimming out a house for a l ounce gold eagle, in my view I have traded capital for capital, and the gold coin is still worth less than which I traded for it.

If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold. Shrouds are fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

While the game may continue, you personally can buy into it only so long as you have life, once you quit breathing, for you the game is over.

You are welcome to think contraily if you so please, however unless you know something that I don't, then you a more
Perplexed than I am.



Henri
(02/04/2001; 16:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 47427)
Reef the Mains'l ...aka Bascom... Aye
Think I'd rather be with Nemo and his ilk in the "Nautilus" when the fires burn bright!

Perhaps the "real" PTB's...there be three..can't ye see, (dang! I've been hangin' with that Cobra too long...its contageous)have made this be.

The grand plan to reveal to all the final truth...with no distractions. That man's folly is only his ruination if he thinks it is. Mankind's pursuit of folly has turned to obsession to the detriment of all...an honest day's work is now unknown except but to the very fortunate...they shall inherit the earth.
Henri
(02/04/2001; 17:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47428)
Perplexed
Aye Perplexed, that well may be. But if that is how you are preparing for the paper storm, you are but one of those who will inherit the earth. May God bless all your endeavors.
goldfan
(02/04/2001; 17:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47429)
(No Subject)
Peter Asher ON FEEDING LEVIATHAN msg#: 46783)Thanks for your thoughts...

The way I have come to understand "economics" is that the future situation of the US and those like we Canadians who feed off the US, is the exact opposite to what you describe in your "Feeding Leviathan, msg. 46783". And I welcome the opportunity you have given me to describe why I think this.

1. The M3, the broad money supply, within the US, has now reached $7.2 trillion. This fiat money being borrowed into existence has been increasing at 10% per year, and seems to be accelerating to maybe15% or more.

2. The GNP, a kind of measure of the output of goods and services, has been increasing only at 4% per year, (maybe this statistic is an artifact of the growth in credit, so is overstated) and that is now slowing to 1.5% or maybe zero, or maybe negative.

3. US citizens have meanwhile been using borrowings to buy more than the GNP by something like 4%, or $35 billion per month.

4. US citizens have been saving at a very low, even negative rate.

5. Asset capitalization values in the US have been increasing at much more than the rate into which money has been borrowed into existence. They are now at levels many times the total of the M2 money supply.

So money is being borrowed into existence far faster than goods are being manufactured. Furthermore, the wealth creating manufacturing businesses are being sent offshore, so there is less opportunity to use employment in them to save the money to justify the borrowing.

This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.

As I get it, once the asset bubble is pricked, and stock and bond capitalizations drop, the money does not decrease (the M3 total). It just has a lot less tendency to keep circulating in the paper asset market, inflating that market, and instead begins to circulate in the real goods and real assets market, real estate, gold, oil, tobacco, cars, groceries, etc. This is called, at its worst, hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is a result of the Central Bank having to flood the collapsing paper asset markets with newly created money in order to keep the banks afloat. Meanwhile, the citizens rapidly spend whatever they can earn or convert from sold assets, into real assets, or real goods, at whatever price. Of course in all this, there will also be the problem of money formerly circulating in stock and bond assets, being converted into purchases of foreign currencies and assets. The $US thus converted do not disappear, they come back to bloat the static markets for goods and services.

New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation. They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real stuff into higher prices.

Consider the limiting case. What would happen if all mortgage loans were defaulted (0 interest rate)? In default the money itself doesn't disappear. Default just sets the money free without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money. It means higher prices, unless one can show that productive wealth creating businesses are being built with that money, which they manifestly are not, in the US today.

In sum,
the diner ( in the Goods and Services and Real Estate restaurant) says, "I think I'll have the hyperinflation"

the Waiter, "very good choice sir, we have plenty of fresh ingredients for that, $7.2 trillion of indestructible money supply growing exponentially, no productive businesses to leave it invested in, no supply of sufficiently educated people to work the businesses if we did have them. Our competitor, the stock and bond market restaurant, is getting fewer and fewer customers, all their money is coming over here."


With humble and appreciative acknowledgements to ORO and others here at USAgold, and others, including Doug Noland at prudentbear.com, and Ed Bugos at safehaven.com. Any mistakes here are mine, I'm sure, not theirs.

I'd welcome corrections and comments.

FWIW

Goldfan
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 17:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47430)
Perplexed (2/4/2001; 16:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47426)

Capitol or resource depends on the viewpoint.
Henri, who's posts today are excellent in the laying out of exploitation of man's labor, naturally sees that labor as a resource. This is the view of the exploiters he is warning about.

Perplexed sees Man's labor as a product rendered, ultimately by choice, by the individual. --- Bravo Perplexed!

Individual power will derive from one seeing his labor as Capital and that those who wish it as a resource should either negotiate or prepare to fight!




Henri


You may refer to human labor or time, by what ever term you so desire, but the fact remains
when I exchange 10 hr. of my time trimming out a house for a l ounce gold eagle, in my view I
have traded capital for capital, and the gold coin is still worth less than which I traded for it.

If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold.
Shrouds are fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

While the game may continue, you personally can buy into it only so long as you have life, once
you quit breathing, for you the game is over.

You are welcome to think contrarily if you so please, however unless you know something that I
don't, then you a more
Perplexed than I am.

CoBra(too)
(02/04/2001; 17:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47431)
Sir Henri ...
As you've stated your post 47277 is not Gold HoF material, I would concur. This message of your's deserves a lot more recognition ... and it has found it and will be present on the forum. Thank you so much for bringing this topic so eloquently back to our minds, as we all need this reminder of humanity, reality and compassion more than a free trading POG in a conflct of disturbing interests.

Since it'[s getting late, I probably should leave it at that. Though, I don't know when I get a chance to post again I'd like to folow up on Perplexed time factor, by quoting some thoughts from the "Privateer" on the subject:
Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.
- Money is simply the means (medium) of exchange, where all goods and services are exchanged - today, I would say!
This sets up 3 main categories of economic goods; Capital goods, Services and Money, though there is a 4th. economic good - TIME, a factor not discussed in this pretext!". ... And as all is equal, I personally feel, Time ... is probably the most relevant factor in above equation - ... labor, credit, debit as seen today is mostly a function of time - like minimum hourly wages, credit dues, futures or options delivery prices or targets ... Only the (un-)timely advent of derivative markets, originally construed as a hedge for future price uncertainties for participants of the real economy and their credit institutions, servicing these needs, have become an artificial economy, way bigger than the underlying reality. And as it seems the same credit institutions, serving the economy, found themselves in competition with the "GE's" and others - and here I have to state GSE's or A's (Gov. Subsidized Entities or Agencies)- creaming off the top. ... G.W.B. may have a lot of fun to entangle this web ...

Which gets me to Pandagold's latest "cliche': " Oh, what a spangled flag we wave, when first we dared to leave the cave!" ... The good ship "HMS Agenda", dubbed the unsinkable, has again left most passengers of the lower decks stranded, due to the shortage of life-boats ...
... Sorry, I meant you guy's should make up your minds to
effectively join the Union - or go ahead? to contemplate your history of late (pretty close to our fate)- may I say mate? - cb2

PS: Man - J! "Illegal Tender" - Bill Buckler exlains it better than ever would, could or should - best cb2





-

Tree in the Forest
(02/04/2001; 17:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47432)
IronHead
Yes I have been a two wheeler myself though not currently unfortunately. Love those Yamahas. I had a XS650 Special back in the 80's and it was the best bike I ever had. Particularly memorable were the Midnight Special series. When I first saw on of these, I was blown away. What can you say about a gold motorcycle? Are these guys beautiful or what? I love gold!
A Japanese wife sounds great. I've heard that Japanese women make the best wives. I'm jealous! As I've said before on this board, I don't think gold will move til there's a war, unfortunately. The politicos have no other way of explaining what is about to happen to the sheeple. Otherwise they would have to tell people the truth about fiat and then they couldn't continue to take advantage of us. That would make them sad and we wouldn't want our politicians to be sad now would we?
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 17:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47433)
goldfan msg#: 47429)

Many thanks for the extensive reply

Much of it gets into the "Dollars coming home to roost" aspect, on which I am still cramming under the tutelage of "The Wright Brothers Flight Instructor."

Your post is a lean and clean rundown on the "Levithan" dilemma and I will peruse it at great length.

For the moment, re your >>> This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.<<<

Referring again to my HOFer "There is no such thing as money in the market." Money does not circulate IN the stock, bond, and mortgage markets., it circulates through them The only absorption that occurs is the time delay in wealth transfer recordings that renders the money momentarily un-spendable. Absent that, money is always in someone's hands, poised to purchase goods for consumption, productive resource or tool-up.

Re- >>>
New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.
They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real
stuff into higher prices. <<<

I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist.

Simultaneously, the credit expansion having gone where no loans had gone before, tapped out at 125% mortgages and lending criteria that expanded to where there probably wasn't a sane underwriter left on earth. That flow too is no longer in play. Therefore: My view is that these flows must be replaced and that the lowering of interest rates will perform that function rather then expand or inflate the economy.

Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation. I have maintained that the exact cause of price inflation is the "power to command price" by whatever means that power can be obtained. The "Textbook" claim that this power derives from "too much money chasing too few goods" is simplistic, misleading and out of context to the whole.

Now, if ALL increased Money Supply were loaned to consumers to purchase EXISTING Goods that would be true. But economics is NOT a static event. Price direction will be determined by the net differential resulting from the effects of all outstanding supply and demand factors. ---

So, a multiplicity of causes and effects are constantly in play and the resultant creates the price direction. What appears to happen is that a particular excess is observed to have taken place and is then assigned as the "Cause : of some phenomena that is synonymous to the excess. A perfect example is Mundell's claim that European money flooding into our stock market created our economic boom. (Europeans �invested "purchasing rights" are transferred to American stockhlders to spend.) Now, he may have concluded that without that inflow we wouldn't have had the boom but the boom was a result of the summation of �all' the factors. It was also created by the !00-125% mortgages, but those were not �the' cause either. If the Government had locked the doors of Microsoft and the economy crashed, would that have "Caused"it, or simply altered the balance enough to offset positive flows existent at that moment? <<<<

Journeyman
(02/04/2001; 17:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47434)
Illusion's lifetime @Old Yeller msg#: 47384

"How long can the illusion of budget surpluses and debt paydowns be maintained?" -Old Yeller msg#: 47384

As long as enough of the players continue to act as if they believe that the _other_ players are buying the illusion.

Regards,
Journeyman
Pandagold
(02/04/2001; 17:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 47435)
Ironhead; Perplexed; Peter Asher
Thanks for your comments. I had prepared a more detailed posting to address the various comments - nothing nasty - just enlarging on the theme. However, just as I was about to post my computer informed me I had just performed an illegal act ( to which I thought, and I haven't even posted it yet). These guys must have eyes everywhere.
(catch you later)

My screen froze, couldn't even log off normally by closing out windows so had to switch off the machine and lost everything.

Please don't anyone tell me I should save as I go along. I erred

But I would appreciate anyone telling me why it has to tell you youv'e performed an illegal act.

I expected a squeal of brakes and men in long black coats and dark sun glasses beating my door down any minute.

Well, when guys like Christian suddenly disappear of the air, it gets you worried.

So if anyone can ease my mind and find a less frightening reason why the dramatic phrase - illegal act. I will be eternally grateful

Thanks again
Perplexed
(02/04/2001; 18:30:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47436)
Goldfan 347429--Peter Asher


Thanks for the post Goldfan

I too have been studying Peters post when I have had the time. I have now copied both; yours will give me a comparision.

Until recently I have a little exposure to the mechanics of finance, so it is taking me out of my common realm of thought.

It was considered a trueism several years ago, that the only entity responsible for inflation (being a net consumer rather than a producer of wealth) was government.

I have had a major problem accepting the fact that inflation has not existed to any appreciable degree for the last 20 years, as I have observed an ever increasing mountain of debt.

To my apparantly infantile mind, (our "public servants" view) the debt is nothing more than taxes which are not being levied upon the current population to pay the total cost of government.

Jimmy Carter was denied another term as President as the result of funding too much of the expense, a policy which offered merely a glimpse of reality.

Reagan did nothing more than again hide the true cost with additional debt, with the unwavering support of Congress.

I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1. Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?

I'll have more questions once I absorbe some more of your information.

I have deeply appreciated the effort of every poster on the panel toward my education.






Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 18:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47437)
beesting msg#: 47420)
Where you said :
>>>> using ""Fractional Reserve Lending",we're in business! According to the video I just watched we are allowed to "Lend Out" 8 to 10 times our credit line($50,000)including using the cash we just bought from the Central Bank. Lets say we use 9 times. 9 times $50,000 is $450,000.
1. We still have 400 ounces of Gold valued at $100,000.
2. We now have and hold $450,000 worth of interest bearing loans, hopefully secured by sound
collateral.
3. We owe $25,000 to the Central Bank.<<<<

My understanding (To which I am willing to accept correction) is that you could lend out 8 to10 times your DEPOSITS from customers, but that all the additional money you issue must be borrowed from the cental bank at the �wholesale' rate and your gross profit is only the additional �retail' amount of interest you can obtain beyond that. I imagine you could leverage a gold deposit to the CB likewise, but I still think you would be paying the CB the "Fed Funds" rate on every dollar loaned out to you costumers.
goldfan
(02/04/2001; 18:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47438)
Peter Asher more hyperinflatio stuff
Peter Asher re your message 47171 which I just rediscovered:

>>>>>You said (Peter Asher (02/02/01; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47171))
Randy (@ The Tower) (01/31/01; 17:05:38MT msg#: 47046)

I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."<<<<

Isn't this the same as more money chasing fewer goods? ORO wrote a piece awhile back supporting this idea of the effect of inflation.

>>>>Global trade is the giant sponge that absorbs Big Float, easily relieving any price pressure on the home economy. <<<<

The scenario is that a drastic fall in the US $ index will make the US domestic price of foreign shoes, clothes, automobiles, and oil skyrocket. And the US imports 50 % of its oil and 50% of its goods and food. So when no one really needs to buy US goods to pay off their debts anymore, and US citizens cannot afford half of what they need for survival at present consumption levels, prices of what they can manufacture will skyrocket too. Eventually, higher domestic prices will cause domestic investment and manufacture, but it will take a lot of time and lot of suffering first, Maybe there will be a cry for dictatorship first.

>>>If inflating the money supply �caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! <<<<

No, because the borrowed into existence excess money has not been spent in the goods and services restaurant, it has has been spent in the stocks and bonds restaurant. When this closes up due to food poisoning of its patrons, they will be desperate to pay any amount to get into the goods and services and real assets restaurant.<<<


>>> I suspect that there is a vast quantity of economic activity that does not show up in the record keeping but nevertheless �uses' its proportion of the money supply to carry on.<<<<

The underground economy will inflate its way out of paper money too, maybe into tobacco, or prozac.

The Tower said Re- >>>As I have said many times before, the view from The Tower is one of a deflation in dollars in the global scale as the use is replaced by Euros and alternatives. However, as the dollar falls out of favor in international use, we see ample ingredients for domestic (within America's borders) hyperinflation of supply and prices as the Fed moves to liquidate the grinding banking sector from within, or even as the deflating global supply is sent packing...all into its original "tiny" home.<<<

>>>What is there in "Feeding Leviathan" that you see as not occurring?.

Just HOW do these dollars come home to roost? <<<<

The currency traders abandon US$, either on their own account, or on account of customers. This means they sell the $ for whatever they can get for them in other currencies or gold. The $ don't disappear, they get deposited in the US bank accounts of the purchasers (the bank is obligated to accept these deposits, no matter how little they are "worth". From whence they are quickly converted into real goods and services and real assets, at very inflated prices.

>>>As to specifics, I see local gasoline today @ $1.45.9 down 18% from recent highs and I read Monday that Sabena and Swissair slashed �over the pond' fares on 11 routes. Anecdotal, of course, but so are the tales of what costs more at the moment. It is the summation of all prices, properly weighted by dollar market share that would give us the true state of the �flation situation. This is the main thrust in " Leviathan." That at best, a balance of price movement will occur as lower debt service costs offset the purchasing power lost.<<<

Present cost cutting to preserve market share will turn into fallen profits, layoffs, and debt defaults. These will accellerate the flight out of the $, but not reduce the size of the "big float".

I think you are missing the chaos element that will occur when the $US index drops to .25 or less. It will not be difficult to measure the inflation, it will be obvious every few days in your favorite restaurant. Lower debt service costs will just be serving to pump vastly greater quantities of money into the system, borrowed by huge corporations mostly, who will use it to expand their ownership, wipe out their debt because of the drop in purchasing power, and wind up owning everything the way they did in Germany. Then will follow the street gangs, the police squads,and the dictators to quell the riots and get the trains running gain. ... I don't want it, but I fear this is it.

>>>We are backing down from an artificial affluence that robbed tomorrow to pay for today. If this economy is very much dependent on the purchasing power of the holders of debt instruments, then it is TOAST!<<<

I agree, this will be the outcome. BURNT toast. Backing down from artificial affluence means, exactly, killing the purchsing power of any debt instrument of today, all paper $denominated contracts to become wallpaper.

Finally, Re- >>> You see, the Euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<

I agree with ORO saying the Euro won't be any more attractive than the $US when this $ crash scenario occurs. What is there in the European or Asian scene that creates any trust in any fiat anywhere in the world, when the US empire has just collapsed???

all FWIW
I've enjoyed the opportunity you gave me to examine my understanding of this stuff.

Goldfan

Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 19:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 47439)
Perplexed

Re >>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1.Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

Cb2 just posted the following >>>> from "Privateer" on the subject: Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.<<<<

So I would say production (fiat acquired) in excess of consumption (fiat parted with) by a borrower, who then chooses that excess to pay down debt.
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 19:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47440)
goldfan msg#: 47438)

Re-my ### You see, the euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.###

The comma after You see was a typo. Thanks for inadvertently finding it. (It was Randy you were contrasting with ORO)

For my stand on the Euro, refer to the paragraph that followed.

What are the mechanics that would cause this?. Your North star is my Southern Cross (Headed South). To date, the Euro exchange rate is 20% below the rate at inception. I have, from the start, declared the Euro a weak cousin to the dollar. I indicated that the strength of the Mark and SF would be diluted by the Lire and Peso and then later stressed the further weakening that will occur as former Soviet satellite nations, complete with massive environmental liabilities, are enfolded into the Union. Imagine how the dollar would be valued if we added the economy of Mexico into it's domestic quantum.

Back to reading your last post. P.
David Linkley
(02/04/2001; 19:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 47441)
What if
the Cabal were really a computer located somewhere near the corner of Broad and Wall in downtown Manhattan?
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 19:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 47442)
Goldfan, correction
Whew, thinks are moving fast hereThe error of mine was leaving out the word 'your' as in:

Finally, Re-YOUR (Randy's)>>> You see, the Euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 19:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47443)
David Linkley msg#: 47441)

They couldn't be that stupid.

If I were in on it, I'd have the monster at the deepest level of Cheyenne montain
Christian
(02/04/2001; 19:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47444)
The words posted that have gotten me into trouble.
Commodity gold price $270 Trade settlement gold at BIS $526 (presently $540) Credit creation gold $3000 (presently $2,700.- averages around ten times commodity price). All money is debt money. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence. The bottom line is that debt cannot be paid off with debt, and debt generates no income that isn't offset by more debt. - The Fed makes possible the U.S.Government's ability to print money by issuing Treasury Bonds and subseqently pawning the paper off on naive domestic and international investors.-- Kreieren Undergang (Creative Destruction) by Alan _reenspan. ....somebody in Europe translated some of my posts at Gold Eagle on some European Forum. There was even an article about one of my posts in the Schweizerishe Landwirtshaftliche Zeitschrift. I can post anything I want as long as it is bullshit- pro or con. I can not post anything against Bush Sr., or anything about all of the presidents cabinet having past or present connections to Monsanto. I can not post where the additive MPC in Cheez Whiz comes from or what it is. I can not say that anti fly powder or oil placed on a cow's back and head is absorbed and forms prions when compined with copper or maganese in the brain and turns it into __________ with holes. I can not say that most farm chemical spray's have the maganese additive in it that will stay in the ground for at least 20 years. I can not say that the mineral salt mixture fed to lifestock with the poison to kill flies (marple fly) also destroys the animals nervous system. I can not say that U.S.downer cows end up in school lunches. I can not say that E-coli trated cows treated with poliotic or vetisulid make up 30% of all cows slaughtered. I have to come up with proof on my Chemtrail so called theory. I mailed that yesterday.
SHIFTY
(02/04/2001; 19:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 47445)
Periodic Ponzi Update
Nasdaq 2,660.50 + Dow 10,864.10 = 13,524.60 divide by 2 = 6,762.30 Ponzi

up 41.66 from last week.

Up four weeks in a row.
Where do they think they are going ?

$hifty
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 20:04:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47446)
goldfan msg#: 47438)

You quoted my >>> I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."<<<<

To which you said ### isn't this the same as more money chasing fewer goods? ORO wrote a piece awhile back supporting this idea of the effect of inflation.####

My above was followed in that post by >>> Defining inflation in the context of the money supply comes from a time when economies were more centralized to their specific nation. Even though the dictionary gives equal weight to either use, it still perpetuates the now archaic cause and effect equation<<<<

You quote my >>>If inflating the money supply �caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! <<<<

and say ##### No, because the borrowed into existence excess money has not been spent in the goods and services restaurant, it has been spent in the stocks and bonds restaurant.####

Again! It hasn't been "Spent" in the market. It changes hands in return for paper securities. It simply allows Joe to spend Harry's money.

#####The underground economy will inflate its way out of paper money too, maybe into tobacco, or prozac. #####

Why more now or later, then before??

######Present cost cutting to preserve market share will turn into fallen profits, layoffs, and debt
defaults. These will accelerate the flight out of the $, but not reduce the size of the "big float" ####.

Correct. But "fallen profits, layoffs and debt defaults" are hardly inflationary. A flight "Out of the dollar" will reduce it's purchasing power of imports, creating a slump effect overseas. My point in the *Quantitative* analysis, is that our increased ability to export due to this shift will only help us offset the reduced demand from the diminished credit, and market transfer supported, activities at home.

Going back now to your first post. This is hectic but a good flogger of stalled thought processes. Keep it up!
Hill Billy Mitchell
(02/04/2001; 20:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 47447)
Perplexed @ # 47426
Sir

Please pardon my butting in. Something occurred to me which neither adds nor detracts from your point. It was just an interesting thought which came to me: If you only had 10 hours to live I doubt that you would spend it in any type of temporal income producing capacity. Please take no offence. It just seemed to be an apples and oranges sort of thing.

Very respectfully,

HBM
SHIFTY
(02/04/2001; 21:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 47448)
All that glitters is gold
http://www.timesofindia.com/today/05busi28.htm
All that glitters is gold
By Jacob Kurien

If you ask a chartered accountant whether it's wise to invest in gold, he is not going to recommend it. Gold over the years hasn't seen any big appreciation, and speculation is almost nil. You don't have the fluctuations of a stock market or a real estate property in this investment.

Infact the price has been more stable - neither has it gone up in a big way nor has it come down. Particularly after the duty reduction, the price has been more or less stagnant.

But that hasn't stopped all of us from investing in gold. What drives the demand for the yellow metal?

The biggest factor in its favour is the liquidity. If you want to turn your investment into cash quickly, gold is the best alternative. I can't think of any other commodity which can give you this kind of liquidity.

Our culture, religion seems to have taken note of this factor! Over the years, gold has become a social fabric. Our tradition has made it sure that we buy gold on auspicious occasions. You have to give gold for marriages and every woman thinks of this investment, for herself, for her daughter.

Naturally, the market is huge. The demand is estimated to be around 600 tonnes and even the supply hasn't been a deterrent. If you convert that into value, Indian gold market is worth around Rs 35,000-40,000 crore.

But the huge market has been operating without much standardisation and more on trust. We are the only player with a national presence and our focus has been on the design and quality. We have been targeting the young woman who wants to look different from her mother.

Are people looking beyond gold? You have platinum but a few section of the society is investing in this metal. I personally think, if you have surplus gold in your kitty, you should go in for platinum. Right now critical mass is not there for this metal. But the biggest advantage for the buyers here is the price. It is atleast one third or one fourth of the international price. And the scope for appreciation right now looks better.

(The author is the COO at Tanishq)
Peter Asher
(02/04/2001; 21:11:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47449)
Back to goldfan msg#: 47429)

Re>>> New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.<<<<

I certainly hope not, in order to stave off disaster, the money supply must at minimum be held in place. The existing activity is dependant on it. It might be more accurate to say that the supply and activity are interdependent. Beyond that, dollars that, on balance, come home in lesser quantities, would need a replacement via newly loaned money to keep the status quo. This is a big part of the :Tiger by the tail" phenomena. Also this relates to>>>Hyperinflation is a result of the Central Bank having to flood the collapsing paper asset markets with newly created money in order to keep the banks afloat.<<< If bolstering the collapse only replaces a lost flow, there is no inflationary effect.

In answer to your >>>>>Consider the limiting case. What would happen if all mortgage loans were defaulted (0 interest rate)? In default the money itself doesn't disappear. Default just sets the money free without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money. It means higher prices, unless one can show that productive wealth creating businesses are being built with that money, which they manifestly are not, in the US today. <<<

Default does not set" *the* money free" (without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money.) Default permits debtors to do something else with newly acquired money instead of passing it over to the debtees! The holders of debt paper no longer receive their piece of the money supply to spend, and simultaneously, their debtors now gain it to do so --- Definitively a zero-sum wealth transfer.

What I am expounding on in my recent posts is the proposition that the potential inflationary effect of the current interest rate cuts, is less then the potential deflationary effects resulting from the loss of the input of the "Spend With Abandon" spree.
beesting
(02/04/2001; 21:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 47450)
Peter Asher # 47437 Ref beesting msg # 47420.
http://www.themoneymasters.com/Hi Peter, part of your post:

<>

Peter, I truthfully don't have the answer to that. The person in the video didn't distinguish. However I do have a close friend I've known for over 40 years that is a loan officer in a bank back east that specializes in home mortgage loans, if we don't get the answer here, I will ask her.
Just some of my thoughts are:
With the U.S. savings rate at near zero, because of low interest rates paid to depositors it would seem the local banks would have to use mortgages and other debt instruments
as their collateral for other loans to stay in the lending business.

I just found the link above so haven't checked it out yet, but they are the people who made the video "The Money Masters". If I get some time I hope to post more of their ideas. One thing they said in the film was,"the U.S. could get out from under the grips of the Central Banking system by issuing unbacked paper money FROM the U.S. Treasury over a 2 year period to buy back all the debt held by The Federal Reserve System, and in a slow process back the local banks by money issued directly from the Treasury."
The flaw I see right away with that is, how do we trade with other countries? I would say, Gold has to enter the equation somewhere.
Thanks for responding...beesting.
SHIFTY
(02/04/2001; 21:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47451)
'Gold is a low risk portfolio diversifier'
http://www.timesofindia.com/today/05busi30.htm'Gold is a low risk portfolio diversifier'
By Srikala B

When was it last time you bought gold? Can't remember? You must have been buying it too often to keep note of it!

Most Indians have this habit. Buying gold regularly. It doesn't matter whether this investment is appreciating or giving good returns. This commodity is a must for everyone's portfolio. Why?

``It's a must in every portfolio. It is a low risk portfolio diversifier,'' says Mr Derrick Machado, Regional Director, World Gold Council.

``The liquidity of this investment is too comforting,'' adds Jacob Kurian, COO, Tanishq. Compare it with any other investment like real estate, stocks, mutual fund, fixed deposits and gold is a clear winner. And mind you, it is accepted anywhere in the world, without much hassle.

Indians seem to be quick to realise gold's investment potential, years ago. Our ancestors have made it a must in the purchase list for all auspicious occasions. Even today, jewellery is a must for every Indian family, irrespective of the affordability factor. That explains why the demand for gold is on the rise continuously.

The industry estimates the total demand in circulation to be around 600-800 tonnes. The domestic production being a couple of tonnes, a good amount of gold is imported liberally. Infact, the weakening rupee too has added its mite to gold smuggling business. The demand is not just from the womenfolk for jewellery but even from investors. What is surprising is nearly 60 per cent of gold buying has been for the sake of investment!

As Kurian says, for a hardcore investment manager, this may not make a sound investment sense. If you look at the gold price movement over the years, the fluctuation is not breath-taking. But that hasn't stopped the demand growth. It has only helped the price to move up gradually.

It is a different story if you look at diamond. This hard stone is giving better returns and is moving up the priceline much faster than the yellow metal.

Even Mr Umesh, Jt.Managing Director, Ganjam Nagappa & Sons, agrees. ``The demand for diamond is on the rise thanks to the growing purchasing power of the middle class and the diamond base in the country has gone up to Rs 5000 crore,'' he says.

It may not be big compared to gold's Rs 40,000 crore but liquidity factor of diamond is driving the investors to take a good look at it. And again that safety factor is there.

``The return from the stock market no doubt is fascinating. But a market crash can bring down the value of your asset or can even erode it,'' says Umesh.

The safety factor of diamond like gold too has brought in fresh buyers to the market place. It isn't anymore the case of a lady buying diamond because she got influenced by a DeBeers ad. Even the traders and investors are walking into the market place. There are no hard figures available to substantiate the trend but the industry puts the investment ratio at 60%. In addition, the diamond industry on the whole is recording a smart growth of 25-30%, annually.

But that figure could change in the coming days. The Guajarat earth is not only going to have a dampening effect on the diamond trade but also on gold too. World Gold Council expects that people in Gujarat will sell their gold and diamond as a last resort to rebuild their lives. But that could also enhance the faith of the Indians in its investment potential
Mark
(02/04/2001; 21:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 47452)
Christian, you are brilliant!
I used to read your posts on GE and miss them very much. please continue to post here. how is your farm going?
is it okay to post your chemtrail theory proof here? i'm glad you're okay.
goldfan
(02/04/2001; 22:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 47453)
Peter Asher more and more
Peter Asher msg#: 47439 to
Perplexed

Re >>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1.Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

Cb2 just posted the following >>>> from "Privateer" on the subject: Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.<<<<

>>>So I would say production (fiat acquired) in excess of consumption (fiat parted with) by a borrower, who then chooses that excess to pay down debt.<<<<

Me... debt is satisfied.. what does this mean? I say it means, ultimately, settlement, which means exchange of goods and services, the money is just an intermediary, until the goods or services are exchanged there is no settlement. Ie, if I use fiat money I've borrowed to "buy" some goods, then no settlement occurs, until the person from whom I've purchased is able to get the personal use of my labour in return, or of some of my labour I've saved as an "investment", and now sold, and spent the sale proceeds into the market, or I've saved some of the proceeds of my labour, and used that to pay off the debt.



Peter Asher msg#: 47433) to
goldfan msg#: 47429)

>>>For the moment, re your >>> This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.<<<

Referring again to my HOFer "There is no such thing as money in the market." Money does not circulate IN the stock, bond, and mortgage markets., it circulates through them The only absorption that occurs is the time delay in wealth transfer recordings that renders the money momentarily un-spendable. Absent that, money is always in someone's hands, poised to purchase goods for consumption, productive resource or tool-up.<<<

me. I guess I don't agree. Money that goes from cheque to cheque, from computerized bank account to account, is circulating in my parlance. Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!)

The money stock at any moment, M2 or M3, or whatever, it seems a bit elusive, is capable of ballooning any asset valuation to far beyond the total of the money stock. I buy one share and ten others are recorded as having gone "up in value" though they never traded. Last year, the money stock available in the US passed through 12 trillion of GDP and 36 trillion of stocks. The only reason the valuation on the GDP was so low, was that a lot more money energy was directed at stocks. Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption. M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.

Another way to say this. If $7.2 trillion of money supply can create activity of $12 trillion in GDP and $36 trillion in stocks, what would be the effect on GDP valuations (not quantities) if the circulation in stocks had been at the normal pace of say $3 trillion. Doesn't this leave an extra $33 trillion of buying pressure to go onto GDP?

>>>>Re- >>>
New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.
They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real
stuff into higher prices. <<<

I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist. <<<<

What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or deflations in asset prices.I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.

Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again. I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets. This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. This can only mean that the purchasing power of the present money supply has to drop sharply (read prices of goods and services and labor have to greatly increase) in order that the promissory notes by which the money was created can be paid off with devalued currency. I guess that allowing a lot of bank failures, including the central bank, through a run on the banks, would reduce the money supply!!! But that will not be allowed to happen.

The outcome of the hyper inflation, since it will destroy the purchasing power of the currency, and bring economic activity to a halt, will be that a new money, in much reduced supply, will be created. This is the deflation. Unless it is gold, probably no one will want it, maybe even gold won't work for a while. How could the Russion economy function even as poorly as now without the US dollar? Well they're going to get to try that experiment.

>>>Simultaneously, the credit expansion having gone where no loans had gone before, tapped out at 125% mortgages and lending criteria that expanded to where there probably wasn't a sane underwriter left on earth. That flow too is no longer in play. Therefore: My view is that these flows must be replaced and that the lowering of interest rates will perform that function rather then expand or inflate the economy.<<<

Doesn't the data show that mortgage financings are increasing, as are house prices? Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default (the california fiasco etc. ).
To me you are confusing the word flows with the recorded stock at one instant. There is nothing to stop the banksters from valuing houses upward in order to justify creating more money to supply higher mortgages and thus gain increased money flows on even lower interest rates. How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings". The banks though, will need to compensate somehow from the increasing rate of default on their former loans, as the economy goes into recession from lack of consumer spending. And from reduced consumption due to higher prices. Defaults require the sale of assets at a 20X ration, further accelerating the downdraft in markets, further accelerating the perception of lost wealth. But lost paper wealth is not lost money supply.
And since fewer goods are being manufactured when the economy is contracting, and the money supply is staying constant or even increasing as banks are being bailed out, and real estate loans are increasing, and lousy businesses are being kept alive in order to keep them from becoming bad debts on the books of the banks, ( The Greenspan answer to the problems created by excess credit is to provide more credit!!) hyperinflation is on the way.

>>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets.

>>>I have maintained that the exact cause of price inflation is the "power to command price" by whatever means that power can be obtained. The "Textbook" claim that this power derives from "too much money chasing too few goods" is simplistic, misleading and out of context to the whole.<<<<
Sorry, I just can't seem to make sense of what you've said next. Maybe you could comment on what I've said, that if the M3 were to be passed through goods and services on a daily basis, instead of most of it going through stocks and bonds, we would have a terrific price inflation.
>>>>Now, if ALL increased Money Supply were loaned to consumers to purchase EXISTING Goods that would be true. But economics is NOT a static event. Price direction will be determined by the net differential resulting from the effects of all outstanding supply and demand factors. ---

So, a multiplicity of causes and effects are constantly in play and the resultant creates the price direction. What appears to happen is that a particular excess is observed to have taken place and is then assigned as the "Cause : of some phenomena that is synonymous to the excess. A perfect example is Mundell's claim that European money flooding into our stock market created our economic boom. (Europeans �invested "purchasing rights" are transferred to American stockhlders to spend.) Now, he may have concluded that without that inflow we wouldn't have had the boom but the boom was a result of the summation of �all' the factors. It was also created by the !00-125% mortgages, but those were not �the' cause either. If the Government had locked the doors of Microsoft and the economy crashed, would that have "Caused"it, or simply altered the balance enough to offset positive flows existent at that moment? <<<<

Thanks for the dialogue

Goldfan



Topaz
(02/04/2001; 23:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47454)
Pandagold
Well Sir, this time you've done it! An - illegal operation - "off with your head"
If using Win98, this appears all too frequently and may be overcome by re-loading the OS from the disc. (sometimes a new machine with the OS pre-installed can be the cause)
My (limited) experience has led me to use Win95 on the "on-line" machine and '98 on the (newer) off-line gadget.
If I may say, the new, less raspy Panda was a pleasant read this evening, keep it up!
Mr Gresham
(02/04/2001; 23:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47455)
Christian
"I can not post anything against Bush Sr., or anything about all of the presidents cabinet having past or present connections to Monsanto. I can not post where the additive MPC in Cheez Whiz comes from or what it is. I can not say that anti fly powder or oil placed on a cow's back and head is absorbed and forms prions when compined with copper or maganese in the brain and turns it into __________ with holes. I can not say that most farm chemical spray's have the maganese additive in it that will stay in the ground for at least 20 years. "

But isn't that our beloved Free Market system at work? Unfettered capitalism will allow educated consumers to choose with their {fiats of choice} and so dangerous commercial products will prove unprofitable in the marketplace. Externalities? I don't see no steenking externalities!
Mr Gresham
(02/04/2001; 23:21:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47456)
Oh, a late night Nuclear BTW
BTW, what if they spent a hundred years trying to decode the hieroglyphics in and around the pyramids of Egypt, and finally cracked the code this year, and it said:

"HAZARDOUS NUCLEAR WASTE UNDERGROUND STORAGE SITE. Date: Ramses II, Year 34. DO NOT DISTURB! Radioactive half-life: 25,000 years. Recommend no habitations 50 miles for at least 50,000 years."

But those Pharaohs sure had a party while it lasted, huh?

C'mon gang. DTFM. Do the *** Math.
Mr Gresham
(02/04/2001; 23:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 47457)
Contrary Investor
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmThe new format: monthly is free, weekly by subscription (worth it, IMO, but you know my weakness for good writing fun and games.)
ET
(02/05/2001; 00:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47458)
goldfan, Peter

Hey goldfan - a couple of great posts! I suspect the old Fed is up to its ears right now in exactly what you describe. Those bad loans are coming back to bite. I think they're losing the battle as the money supply figures show.

Hey Peter - I think perhaps you have confused money supply inflation with goods and services price inflation. Money supply inflation has been ongoing and has manifested itself in assets for the most part. Money supply inflation can manifest itself as goods and services price inflation but in the case of the US this has been muted for several reasons as described by goldfan and ORO. This is the reason that it is important to describe the terms we use exactly. goldfan is correct in describing inflation as money supply creation and deflation as money supply destruction. Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomenon. Some might say we are in the midst of a hyperinflation in the US money supply as we speak. As you note, it hasn't manifested itself yet in goods and services price inflation, but in asset prices. It remains a hyperinflation nevertheless as money supply is increasing at faster and faster rates of growth.

Stay tuned, I'm sure we will see the day when the hyperinflation settles into everyday items other than energy.View Yesterday's Discussion.

ET
(02/05/2001; 00:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47459)
Ann Coulter
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/anncoulter/ac20010202.shtml
From the article;

"This just in: price controls
cause shortages

"Another 'Dog Bites Man'
story has once again taken
the American press corps by
surprise.

"California's electricity crisis is
treated in the media as if it were
some sort of natural disaster, like a
hurricane. But the only fact of nature
operating here is the hard-and-fast
rule that whenever you come across
a screw-up this big, you know the
government is behind it.

"The California Legislature created
this problem about five years ago
when it deregulated the wholesale
market for electricity but fixed prices
at the retail level, a policy that has
made Cuba the happy, prosperous
country that it is today."
SHIFTY
(02/05/2001; 01:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47460)
Major World Indices
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uAsia/Pacific

China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 2:00AM 2008.032 -57.574
-2.79%

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 1:00AM 13385.52 -318.11 -2.32%

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 1:02AM 5932.42 -116.84 -1.93%

Peter Asher
(02/05/2001; 01:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 47461)
Goldfan

You said >>>What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or
deflations in asset prices. I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and
services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the
source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a
fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were
to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and
held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and
extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset
markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed
through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.<<<<<

Where did I say something "removes money supply from the equation"? And, what you say in the next two sentences is the same thing I've been saying here for over two years!

As to the rest, money doesn't get "pushed through a pipe" just because it's there. It gets spent or saved depending on the intent of it's holder. If it winds up as truly saved, as in a bank deposit not finding a new borrower, then the bank may choose to send it back upstream to the Fed rather then pay interest on it. When I describe the"Impetus to spend" I'm talking about spending decisions, not �Weight" of the money supply.

Re your >>>>Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption.<<<<

Sorry, that's gibberish. "The GDP (products) would have been maybe twice as great ---- since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made." Say what? -- Furthermore, from what logic or past event can you conclude that "a market crash make prices go up even faster"? And, there is always something else to do with money other then spend it.



Re >>>> M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.<<<

Again that's what I said. You keep leaving out the rest of it. It flowed through other stuff before too. In your new scenario It just doesn't do a changing of hands on the way.

>>>>>Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!) <<<

Fortunately you correct that yourself, further down.

>>>>Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again.<<<<

>>>>>>I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets.<<<<

Agree with whom, not me! I've said enumerable times that the illusion of wealth in paper assets is a perception, not money.


>>>This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. <<<<

Nope, "ballooned asset values" means a larger piece of the extant money supply must change hands for each share of stock. No money supply is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, only who has it. You are disagreeing also with yourself here.

>>> How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? <<< >>>>It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings".<<<<

There, you did it again. We had that conversation earlier. I never said the first and I've several time said the second.


Goldfan,: you repeatedly say I said something I didn't and then disagree with it, and also say things I did say and then state them as if I hadn't. I'll continue but no more of that, please.

You quoted by>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

And said "We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets."

That's been called inflation, but I claim it isn't. Asset appreciation is a change in monetary entitlement. No good or service was acquired to serve as a measure of price..

>>>>Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default, <<<

That appears to be true. It can also be seen as -- creating new money to rescue debtors from failing. New money at lower rates extends the time-frame that an entity, now earning less, has to pay down all he owes. This all now depends on how new buying power of both rolled over, cheaper debt and new cash infusions are allocated by those that receive same.


working-kirk
(02/05/2001; 01:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 47462)
Silver Leasing
tedw (2/4/2001; 10:44:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47396)

Ted, I will try to answer your questions but these are only reasonable GUESSES

The people who in the past were leasing Silver was probably the U.S. Treasury. You asked the wrong question. Not: Do The Central Banks have large qualities of silver but had they huge qualities and the answer was one time yes. And at one time, THe Treasury was the largest holder of silver. But it is gone. A lot toward making Silver Eagles dollars and quite a bit the keep the silver price down. The bullion was leased. I believe while you need a consistent supply of silver you don't need a large supply. Just as long as you can supply a small stream of real silver, writing a huge number paper contracts should be able to keep the price down nicely. The treasury should be able to supply the silver the shorts need for a while

Also, the treasury was the only one shorting. Last year a major silver refiner went bankrupt. Handy and Harimann. They made a nice profit shorting the silver of their customers until there was a price spike and a customer wanted their silver back. The refiner went bankrupt instead and no one got their silver. Including 2.5 million of the U.S. government

Another source for shorting silver are some banks. Because there hasn't been a bank run for over 75 years, a lot of customers decided to trust their bank with their silver. After all, those massive safes the banks' have should be more secure then the little fireproof safe you have have home. So they contacted their bank to hold the silver.

After a while the bank probably decided since silver prices are being manipulated downward, they could make a quick profit by selling their customer silver at today's price and and when the timing is right, buy back the silver at a lower price. Even I happened to make a quick buck that way. It was by accident and I was lucky and I would be able to do it again. What I decided to do was trade some of my gold coins for a bag of silver. What happen was the goons managed to kick the price of silver, but they haven't attacked gold yet so silver was at it all time low and gold was still at the high price for the day. I made a $25.00 profit but multiply that by millions of ounces it is a nice pay-day.

Another source for the silver is Comdex. If you been reading this forum funny things are going with with platinum and other precious metals. They are increasing margin requirements. I suspect perhaps for every ounce they hold, two or three people was claiming to own it.

I suspect the same thing is true of silver and I suspect the false owner is selling the metal under the nose of the true owner to cover the shorts.

Last Buffet may have leased his silver, but you can bet he is getting a good price for his metal, not 1% or 2% and if the people leasing cannot delivery and have to default I bet he gets $25.00 to 50.00 per ounce for all the headache.

Last, I believe the supply of silver needed to keep leasing going is GONE! The U.S. Government announced in December they were tapped out. We see silver trying to raise and the only thing that is keeping is down is the sheer amount of paper. The reason the price has not exploded is I don't think the longs who are buying the silver believe is it gone and so are willing to wait til April and let the contract roll over. Those who are buying it for manufacture don't need it right away and so can hold off delivery. Warren Buffet when he purchased his 130 million ounces wasn't able to take delivery right away. So the long are waiting like Warren did. They believe the silver is still there. After all GFMS says China is selling silver and they wouldn't print rumours or worse lie about it. They will wait til April when they can't wait and have to take delivery. After all, in april, Children will be graduating and in June weddings are coming up so if you're Kodak, you want SIlver in April, So you can have film ready by May.
I suspect in a month or two you find on Comdex a lot of people who own the same ounce of silver. They may keep the game going for as long as six months with false promises but no longer.

However one small group is getting of of paper silver and taking delivery. Those who are using it for investment or as an inflation hedge. They are taking delivery and buying like crazy. If you have any form of silver, (Paper, laying in somebody's vault, etc) I suggest you take delivery too just to make sure someone doesn't sell it short on you.

rc in
rc (2/4/2001; 12:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47401)

> I thought China was selling. I doubt it. It was reported > that China was selling by GFMS but that may be no more > than a rumor.

>> I'm still looking for some answers about silver leasing.

>> With gold it makes sense. Central Banks have these huge >> store of gold in their vaults doing nothing. So they
>> lease it to earn an income, and at the same time supress >> the price of gold which makes the central bankers fiat
>> currency look good. Makes sense.

>> But the Central banks dont have huge stores of silver do >> they? So I ask the question again, who is doing the >> silver leasing and why?


rc (2/4/2001; 12:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47401)

I don't know either. And nobody seems to know. People alluded to China selling. Others said Buffet was leasing it. Still hard to swallow that China might sell her silver at bargain prices. Same for Buffet, he should know that he will never see his silver again no matter of much paper he will be paid for.

Still, there must definitely be several hundred millions oz of silver above ground. Maybe just enough to cover the next two years. But again, who is so dumb as to let silver go away at these prices? Scratching my
Peter Asher
(02/05/2001; 01:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 47463)
Hi ET

No, I am not the least bit "confused" about which is money supply and which is price inflation. The Hyper-inflation I've been saying can't occur in this state of affairs has always been price.

Maybe it's a bit more clear in the latest post below, maybe not. Nevertheless, no-one has yet shown where consumer buying power, sufficient to support a demand for higher prices, will come from.

There is more than enough product out there, becoming desperate for customers, to counterbalance the additional money being created.

If we see new auto and home sales in a sellers market, then I will change my opinion.
working-kirk
(02/05/2001; 01:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47464)
If I only had ten hours to live,...
If you had ten hours to live, most likely you would be in the hospital. Now you say you wouldn't be trying to get more gold in the last hour of your life. Probably not, you either be in shock, unconscious or in a coma so you wouldn't have a care, but let me ask you? How will your family pay for the hospitalation?

The gold you've gotten earlier could come in handy.

Most people however are not put on a ten hour death notice.
But most people realize they are at one time or another will have to be hospitalized. And they, not their family, will have to pay for it. (Or you could go for the government handout and thereby force others to pay)

Now you could pay for your hospitalization in several ways. Savings, Insurance, employee benefits but all those ways requires pre-planning. This is what I believe:

1.) There will be in a few months (Some may think a year or two) a financal crisis that destroys the stock market, the dollar and any kind of paper asset.

2.) Social Security, Medicare or any of the social net programs will not be there in your old age.

3.) You will spent more on medical care after you are 65
than all the years you live through before. Your last two years of life will be twice that amount.

So how would you prepare? Gathering gold is one answer.
It is a form of saving that can be used to pay the hospital bills. Of course if you get run over by a car you can always passed the gold on to your family and survivors without inheritance tax.


> If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I > wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold. Shrouds are > fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

> While the game may continue, you personally can buy into > it only so long as you have life, once you quit breathing,
> for you the game is over.

> You are welcome to think contraily if you so please, > however unless you know something that I don't, then you a
> more Perplexed than I am
Christian
(02/05/2001; 02:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 47465)
Alter the human brain tissue.
Many farmers use a powder or a liquid chemical to keep flies off the backs of cows. Most of this chemical ends up along the spinal cord and base of the head. The chemical is "DESIGNED" to seep through the skin and to change the entire internal enviroment of the cow into a poisonous medium to kill off parasites. If at the same time the animal is fed high levels of manganese (minerals) the prions band with manganese and carries it around the brain to destroy free redicals. In Europe high levels of manganese is added to crop sprays and insect sprays. In many parts of Europe like Switzerland there is no grasshoppers left- they are all killed off. The Mad Cow Disease in Europe comes from the high levels of manganese, a metal given to cattle in high doses via minerals or organophosphate that comes into contact with the powder or liquid chemical when absorbed through the skin. When it gets to the brain- prions band with maganese which carries it around the brain to desttroy free radicals. Same is true with humans. In the U.S.A. we have the same problem with deer and elk in the wild. In order to grow our crops like corn, soybeans, etc we spray to kill weeds or bugs. The weed spray's bring in the Manganese or Copper and insect spray's bring in the chemicals all in liquid form that goes through nozels under high pressure that spray's it on the crops. When the deer or elk eat the crops just recently sprayed they have a good chance of being poisoned that does not kill them right away but causes them to have chronic wasting disease. Some farmers feed the mineral salt on the open ground that has the chemicals in the mineral salt in it to kill parasites. Like the chemical that is absorbed through the spine on animals back it changes the entire internal enviroment of the cow into a poisonous medium to kill off the parasite. When a cow dies and is hauled off in the rendering truck the mineral and the chemical can survive the process and be mixed into a new ration of feed for other cows in a feed lot. Now these cows can come down with chronic wasting disease. What I mean by chronic wasting disease in these animals is- the animal is unable to built muscle tissue like normal. The meat is blubbery, and the animal's stomach makes a lot of noise and it's stool is always runny (soup).. Gold-2000 debt creation (growth was three times faster than GDP) mad possible by the extra lending made possibe by having credit creation gold priced much higher then commodity gold. Commodity gold $270 Credit creation gold is presently $2750. This will stop when debt becomes so burdensome that economic strangulation occurs or banks loan out money and pay the borrower interest for borrowing the money. Japan is actually thinking about doing that. Nothing else has worked so far.
tg
(02/05/2001; 02:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47466)
(No Subject)
More dollars won't be chasing the same number of goods, because the indebtedness of the American consumer is at a all time high.
(How do you get a horse that is quenched to drink more.)

It all comes down to a matter of confidence. The American consumer will eventually sense the fear of recession and tighten there belts.( They have already started)

I like this analogy from George Ure, "In the economy, as debt builds up, the economy has to move faster and faster to stay even. Debt load, like ice loading, causes a lack of lift. Beyond certain limits, debt is to the economy, what ice is to a wing. The Fed's moves are designed to keep the wing flying.

Debt is continuing to build up on the economic wing, and we're losing lift!

By lowering the interest rate, they have effectively tried to reduce the icing on the wing. The problem the Fed faces though, is that a change in interest rates today is a very small control surface on the "wing of debt" that has taken nearly 70 years to develop."

Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, eeven though over the last few years the goverment has gone into a massive credit expansion?


Pandagold
(02/05/2001; 02:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47467)
Christian: One hell of a thought
What if this toxic stuff was spread by an enemy designed to hit the human population. I believe these are the things to be feared in the future from people who have had their backs pushed to the wall, and their noses rubbed in the mire so long that they feel they have nothing more to lose.

We have only to take a look around the world and see how some are treated and have been made to live in order that our western civilisation, in particular the US can enjoy
such a high standard of living - even in some cases to the point of the obscene
lamprey_65
(02/05/2001; 03:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47468)
working-kirk
http://www.dnsc.dla.mil/Actually, silver has been held at the National Defense Stockpile Center and sold over the years directly to bullion dealers and end-users. See the links on the page above titled -

Strategic & Critical Materials Report to the Congress

and

Annual Materials Plan

lamprey_65
(02/05/2001; 03:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 47469)
Christian
You wrote:

"The Mad Cow Disease in Europe comes from the high levels of manganese, a metal given to cattle in high doses via minerals or organophosphate that comes into contact with the powder or liquid chemical when absorbed through the skin."

Oh, really?

And I thought it was caused by a protein found in ground-up animal parts and fed to cattle.

I guess you can't believe everything you read on the internet.

;-)
silvercollector
(02/05/2001; 05:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47470)
@ working-kirk
You mentioned,

"Last, I believe the supply of silver needed to keep leasing going is GONE! The U.S. Government announced in December they were tapped out. We see silver trying to raise and the only thing that is keeping is down is the sheer amount of paper. The reason the price has not exploded is I don't think the longs who are buying the silver believe is it gone..."

Questions:

Do you an offical link to this announcement?

If US government silver is really gone why would the longs not believe this?

Imagine if the US government announced that gold was gone, say for example Fort Knox, what do you think would be the reaction? If you think explosion, why not the case with silver?

SC
Christian
(02/05/2001; 07:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 47471)
(No Subject)
To Lamprey_65 The high level chemical poison and manganese is in the animals blood stream in cows having MAD Cows disease. In Britain alone 5 million cows have been slaughtered because of it. Do you know that an affiliate of Monsanto makes the products. Monsanto also makes GMSoya to take the place of meat-by- products which is now a big hit. A few years ago they could not sell it. Monsanto stock is now up 50% and will increase at least 100% before the year is over. Tell me of one Bush cabinet members who does not have some connection to Monsanto. The bovine spongiform consists of the chemical poison compined with monganese or copper. Do you know what GMSoya is? Do you know what GM crops are? Do you what GM organisms can do. We are about to find out during the next ten years. There is no way to undue it. In the next ten years half of the beef herd will be gone in Europe and the GMSoya will be used as a meat supstitute for humans and protein supstitute for cattle.
R Powell
(02/05/2001; 07:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 47472)
Silver
Silvercollector
I remember reading about a month ago that the government had a huge store of silver that they decided not to dump on the market. Instead, they dispensed it yearly to the mints to be used for coins (commemorative) and the last shipment was just recently made. It's enough for the mints for the rest of this year, 2001. Next year the government will have to buy silver for the mints. I printed this out but can't, at the moment find the article to provide the link. I think the gov. had a one time one billion ounces and the last shipment of 100 million will last this year only. Not sure of the numbers. I'll post the link when I find it.
Rich
R Powell
(02/05/2001; 07:30:56 MDT - Msg ID: 47473)
Silvercollector

Found it mentioned at G-E under silver. It was 15 million ounces not 100 million. If I had 15 million I wouldn't mind not having the other 85 million. Bigger numbers than I can imagine.

Silver Inventories
Worldwide inventories are the lowest they have been in more than 100 years. Many analysts believe that, at the current rate of use, all available silver inventories will be consumed within the next 12 to 18 months. In recent months, Comex silver stocks have continued to fall. Mid December saw silver stocks on Comex at 95.7 mill oz, down 1/2 million oz from a month earlier and a new recent year low.

A recent press release entitled "US National Defense Silver Stockpile Eliminated" (Washington, DC -- November 27, 2000) The US Defense National Stockpile Center (DNSC) committed to deliver its remaining stockpile of silver, nearly 15 million ounces, to the United States Mint for its coinage programs. The final balance of silver will be shipped to the U.S. Mint over the next few weeks, effectively depleting the U.S. silver stockpile.

"We basically estimate we have about a year's worth of silver and we will be developing a plan to address future acquisition," US Mint spokesman Michael White told Reuters.

On this report Ted Butler, well known
tedw
(02/05/2001; 07:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47474)
silver leasing
http://www.usagold.comworking-kirk


Thank you for taking the time to answer my question.


I think youve given me a good idea.I believe I will exchange some gold for silver.
Journeyman
(02/05/2001; 07:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47475)
Looting the world @Pandagold msg#: 47467

Hi Panda!

The American standard of living, at least for the AVERAGE American is much overstated. Most of us have been enslaved by the government-banking axis to a degree unknown in the "third world."

The AVERAGE American has no savings, owes ~~$8,000 on his/her plastic, not to mention SUV payments, mortgage payments, etc. - - - and, unlike the 1950s, BOTH he and his wife or live-in must work to support the family - - - AND they are working longer and longer hours (burning more and more of their most valuable commodity) every year. More than 90% of the AVERAGE American's disposable income goes to make loan payments of some sort. It's the "company store" all over again.

But perhaps on weekends and in the few remaining hours at the end of each workday, Americans get to enjoy the lush and lavish life-style?

Americans are less healthy than natives from third-world Mexico - - and we don't live as long. We have more things against the law and more citizens per capita in jails and prisons -- by far -- than in any other country in the world.

So if the rest of the world has indeed been raided to support our life-style, someone better go check Captain Hook's sea chest - - - cause most of the loot ain't finding it's way to the crew.

Regards,
Journeyman
JMB
(02/05/2001; 08:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 47476)
Goldman Sachs
Only 25 delivery notices for Gold today on the Comex.
Our heroes stopped 10.

Of the 4,562 total contracts of Gold intended for delivery this month, Goldman Sachs has stopped 2,074...one might conclude that they are bullish. IT'S ABOUT TIME!
beesting
(02/05/2001; 09:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 47477)
Thoughts Only on the Price of U.S. Paper Silver.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAG&t=MXNFirst fact we should try to agree on:
Mexico claims to be the worlds largest producer of Silver.
So, with that thought in mind wouldn't it seem likely that new Silver for sale in the U.S. comes from Mexico?
Second, lets look at the Peso to U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Currently: 1 U.S. dollar equals 9.78 Peso's(I think these are called New Peso's, since the exchange rate of the "Old" Peso's became a joke when Mexico had finanicial problems not too long ago,,,it was called devaluation.)

Third, how much is 1 ounce of Silver priced in Peso's?
See above link: 1 ounce Silver equals 46.16 Peso's.

So, if we knew the wages of Mexican miners and the cost of producing Silver in Mexico,,,,much cheaper I'm sure, than in the U.S. we would get a better idea of where the cheap(In U.S. dollars) supply of Silver is coming from.Some Mexican hoarders may also be selling.

Now, add that to what some smart American or any investor with a higher "Currency Exchange Rate" and inside connections (Bullion Bankers?)might be able to buy future production of Silver at in Mexico or Bolivia(Another large Silver producer) and we come up with,,,,Somebody or many somebody's with deep pockets, buy at the source of production cheaply in "LOCAL" currency and sell at the market place where he/she can make a profit in American Currency add that to an inflated amount of paper contracts for future Silver delivery keeping the price where "they" want it and,,,,we have an oversold buyers market of paper Silver "Contracts" forcing the pricing mechanism down/ or not up too high, in U.S. dollars,,,,this type of business has been going on for thousands of years.(Buy low Sell High) Is the world running out of physical Silver?? Us small guys will never know until after the fact.

See my post, beesting 1/30/2001 # 46938 Chinese Agriculture,Currency Valuations, and Gold, for a better understanding of how this on going Currency operation(Read Worldwide Scam) is working. These are thoughts only,,,Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Pandagold
(02/05/2001; 09:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 47478)
Journeyman:Thanks for the clear up

I very much agree with what you say. America is a mixed bag of tricks. There exists some of the worst poverty in the world, and, on the other end of the spectrum, most of the extreme 'rich'

In California more riches are lavished by some on their pooches in one week, than a 'human-bean' has to live on for a whole year in some third world countries.

Unfortunately this sort of crap gets projected to the world.
Rarely is the more poverty side acknowledged by media ie the 'carboard cities' that abound. If ever we glimpse 'the other side of the tracks' it is usually in some 1920's era
setting, as though it only existed in the past.



I also know that most of this high living is on debt - a debt made possible by the rest of the world keep accepting these green iou's'.

Other parts of the western world are also enjoying a higher standard than they would if some of these 'banana republics'
got a little better deal than at present.

I have travelled far and wide, and not on one of these - 'It's Tuesday so it must be Paris' trips. So I know the score.

I know that we can never have an ideal world, and most people accept that, it is just that things have now become a bit skewed, don't you think. It is when you get extreme excesses and a diminishing cushion in between that the real problems start.

And that is where we are at. At least, that is how I see it.

I appreciate, and fully understand your comment.
Pandagold
(02/05/2001; 09:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 47479)
Journeyman

Don't know how that thanks for the clear up got in the subject, must have been a throw up from an earlier post. But a THANKS for the comment is appropriate. Then, come to think of it, perhaps 'the clear up' is relevant, because it could have sounded that I was saying all Americans ar rich
and are robbing the world which is far from the case.

Do you know, that even when the UK was at the height of Empire and Britannia Ruled the Waves, the vast majority of Brits, especially in the North, were living at, or just above the poverty line.
goldfan
(02/05/2001; 09:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 47480)
Peter Asher Yet again... on inflation or not
Peter re your 474461, thanks for responding to so may of my points. I'll try to do more of a reply later, this for now.
your>>>
Peter Asher (2/4/2001; 17:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 47433)

is where you say " the slowdown will remove money supply from the equation..."

>>>I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist. <<<<

I certainly have no intention of misquoting you. I think a lot of our ideas are similar.
I certainly agree with this last paragraph of yours above. I feel like I'm getting into a lot of misunderstood references on maybe both our parts. For example, when I say the GDP can be twice as great, without any increase in amount of goods produced, what I mean is that if the prices were to inflate, the GDP as a dollar figure would be much larger, but , the amount of goods would stay the same.

I think our discussion comes down to my disagreeing with what you said in paragraph one I've quoted above. I think that to have a deflation in prices, we have to have a massive reduction in the already created money supply, and not add any more to it. I don't think that a crash and a slowdown automatically destroys money supply, unless the banks are allowed to fail. So we are going to have situation where the GDP is contracting, and the money supply is increasing. This can only mean a massive inflation. Banks on the point of failure will have their assets monetized (read more money supply!) by the government in order to try to prevent fire sales and cascading defaults. The US$ index will drop, sharply increasing import prices for consumer goods and oil. Corporations will increase prices, though their sales are declining, in order to preserve some profits, and trying to avoid bankruptcy. (stagflation). The appearance on the scene of inflation in goods prices will prompt people who have fire saled their paper assets to put the cash into real goods and hopefully, gold. Hyperinflation. Greenspan can save the dollar, or he can save the banks. He can't do both. He has opted to save the banks.

My picture of the economy is that money circulates (yes I define it as "spent", when I buy a pound of butter, or a share of stock, I spend money in my parlance) in different arenas. I suggest that if 3/4 of the spending (not the money supply, but the circulation of part of that money supply) is in the stock market and only 1/4 in the GDP as it was last year, then a collapse of the stock arena, will lead to a massive increase in circulation in the GDP and real estate arenas.Where else could it go?

If we can take the same money supply that has driven $36 trillion of stock market activity plus $12 trillion of GDP activity and get it to drive maybe $4 trillion of stock market activity and less than $12 trillion of GDP activity, without increasing prices, then I'm wrong. Then we won't have the hyperinflation.

Something ORO said a while ago made me think we might even have the hyperinflation while increasing stock prices and stock market capitalizations. I guess this would occur if the drop in the US$index and the $80 trillion of derivatives blowup made the $24 trillion total of US$ in the world come home. But I don't know. I feel totally lost about that part of it.

FWIW

Goldfan
Galearis
(02/05/2001; 10:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 47481)
@tedw: silver
I was hoping Rhody would come in and deliver one of his straight-to-the-chin DISsertations on scamduggery in the silver market, but seems locked up in distractions of other kinds.

This market, from my point of view, is also driven by naivity of the many - including myself to a great extent - but postings in this site, other forums, and the oh-so-important writings of ones such as Ted Butler may yet inform enough of this market to get them through the coming storm. To add my miniscule two grains of silver thought to this discussion: the naive market very often has the same attitude and problems with silver as do the larger buyers. To wit: bulk and volume of the asset bought. As a solution to this dilemma (for the banks as well as the consumer) has been in the form of silver and gold certificates. The "saving" grace of this paper for the buyer is that he or she saves on paper add-on charges, bar fees and the like which are a surcharge over and above current spot. The buyer purchases from the bullion bank this piece of paper that certifies the ownership of X oz. still held (in trust) or "registered" at the bullion bank. The problem is that the bank in a fractional reserve system is able to issue perhaps as many as 20 of these papers for the same oz of the pm. So for convenience gained, an additional risk is taken. IMO the surcharges added at the bullion bank are a method for discouraging the purchase of physical supplies. When (not if) this market is "TOCOMED" the holders of this paper will only be able to "cash out" - not exchange their paper with metal. This, of course, is a default by the bank - and is certainly the scenario that will happen when many run to their local bullion bank in the not so distant future.

Of course many still use the bullion bank to "store" their silver or gold purchased (gold and silver pools), but this would imply that this is totally safe - the pms are registered yes. True enough while the bank is in solvent condition. Also the bank must (?) get permission from the client to lease these supplies into the market. This too is where some of this silver comes from - and in a declining spot environment would seem a good (?) idea to the "investor".

At any rate, this is my limited understanding of the situation. The only thing I am reasonably sure about is that silver WILL be the next "TOCOMED" precious metal and that this will happen sometime in 2002 - and likely early on too.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/05/2001; 11:01:53 MDT - Msg ID: 47482)
Fed adds $6.505 billion to banking system reserves today
After a large ($11+ billion) Thursday operation followed by a rare restful Friday, the Fed Account Manager today engaged again in open market operations.

With the federal funds market trading at the target rate (5.5%), the Fed stepped in to add $4.505 billion via overnight repurchace agreements in tandem with $2.0 billion via 28-day repos.

Clearly, this "intervention" was not done to influence the rates. And we all know what risk threatens a national currency when it becomes so easily had...
Peter Asher
(02/05/2001; 11:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 47483)
Goldfan, tg

tg: like your analogy.
Goldfan, thanks. We're getting closer.

I'm out the door till after dark. Will write tonight.

Meanwhile, maybe you'd like to take a crack at tg's question

tg (02/05/01; 02:08:46MT msg#: 47466)
>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, even though over the last few years the government has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<
goldfan
(02/05/2001; 11:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 47484)
Peter Asher my more complete response
Re Peter Asher msg#: 47461)
Peter here is my full response to your last. It's been a learning trip for me.

Goldfan then... What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or
deflations in asset prices. I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and
services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the
source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a
fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were
to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and
held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and
extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset
markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed
through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.

Asher now....>>>>Where did I say something "removes money supply from the equation"? And, what you say in the next two sentences is the same thing I've been saying here for over two years!<<<

Goldfan now...You said the above in your message #47433 . And I value your efforts here, and am not deliberately failing to credit you, every time I say something you agree with...

Asher now...>>>>As to the rest, money doesn't get "pushed through a pipe" just because it's there. It gets spent or saved depending on the intent of it's holder. If it winds up as truly saved, as in a bank deposit not finding a new borrower, then the bank may choose to send it back upstream to the Fed rather then pay interest on it. When I describe the"Impetus to spend" I'm talking about spending decisions, not �Weight" of the money supply.<<<<

GF now...the pipe metaphor is how I visualize it. The stock market arena is a big pipe, so prices can go sky high without much money pressure, much use of the money supply. the GDP is a finite, much smaller pipe. Trying to push a lot of money supply through it, takes a lot of pressure, which translates into much higher prices. Maybe this metaphor is kind of clumsy.

GF then... >>>>Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption.<<<<

Asher now....Sorry, that's gibberish. "The GDP (products) would have been maybe twice as great ---- since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made." Say what? -- Furthermore, from what logic or past event can you conclude that "a market crash make prices go up even faster"? And, there is always something else to do with money other then spend it.<<<<<

GF now....I replied to this in my # 474480 . GDP can double without more actual goods being produced, if prices double. Also, I visualize that if the wealth effect dies, then whatever money can be extracted from brkerage accounts, moey market funds, mutual funds, will be deosited into bank accounts and quickly spent by a people afraid to hold cash for fear it will buy nothing in a few weeks. Nobody holds cash today, I think attitudes will be the same in future.

GF then...>>>Re >>>> M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.<<<

Asher now....Again that's what I said. You keep leaving out the rest of it. It flowed through other stuff before too. In your new scenario It just doesn't do a changing of hands on the way.<<<

GF now...Well I certainly think that spending money is causing it to change hands. Otherwise, I can't understand your remark here.

GF then.... >>>Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!) <<<

Asher now...Fortunately you correct that yourself, further down.<<<<

GF now....I don't get what you object to in the paragraph above. To me, the dollar volume activity in the stock market at three times the dollar volume activity in the GDP markets means that a lot more of the money supply is being directed at the stock market, than at the GDP markets. But I guess one could argue, that a dollar directed at the stock market has a greater ballooning effect on the valuations there, than a dollar directed at the GDP market. I don't know how to prove my contention. If I'm wrong, If most of the money supply has been directed at or through, the GDP markets, and only a small proportion at or through the stock markets, then collapse of the stock market will not materially change the amount of money available to be directed at the GDP markets, so there will be no hyperinflation. (unless the huge sums offshore, derivatives etc. come home)


GF then...>>>>Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again.<<<<

GF then...>>>>>>I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets.<<<<

Asher now...Agree with whom, not me! I've said enumerable times that the illusion of wealth in paper assets is a perception, not money.<<<

GF now...Sorry, I didn't intend my statement to read as if I believe that the excess money supply equates to the escalation in paper wealth denominated by the stock market. I shouldn't have said I agree... before I understood how you were going to read me. When I say "creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets" I meant that people's ability to borrow, for example, on their homes, has enabled them to direct that borrowed money at the stock market, so to get a multiplier effect that they are calling wealth, but which is just perception of wealth, as I know you have said. Many times.

GF then>>>This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. <<<<

Asher now...Nope, "ballooned asset values" means a larger piece of the extant money supply must change hands for each share of stock. No money supply is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, only who has it. You are disagreeing also with yourself here.<<<

GF now....I believe true wealth can only be created out of borrowed funds if there is a repayment of those funds out of productive labor. But even then, the wealth may not be created. When I borrow the money to buy shares of stock, and my purchase balloons the valuation of all the rest of that stock in other's hands, even my payback of that borrowed money, may not create the productive conditions needed to justify these higher stock prices. Just here I am a bit stuck, have to think about it some more.
In any case, I see that what you have said here , no money is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, is a better way of saying what I believe.

GF then....>>> How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? <<< >>>>It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings".<<<<

Asher now....There, you did it again. We had that conversation earlier. I never said the first and I've several time said the second.<<<

GF now...I don't really get what I 'did"!! Somewhere in all this I took you to be saying that rolling over loans at lower interest rates was going to help keep prices stable, or even deflate them. And if that was what you said, then , I say it aint necessarily so. Maybe there was a time when this could be the result. But not now, when the money supply is in such great excess, and there is so much bad credit out there. But I don't know how to prove this, that the money supply is already too great to be compatible with a falling stock market, and a falling GDP and stable prices for goods seen as stores of wealth when all other wealth stores are shunned.

Asher now...Goldfan,: you repeatedly say I said something I didn't and then disagree with it, and also say things I did say and then state them as if I hadn't. I'll continue but no more of that, please.

Asher then...You quoted by>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

Goldfan then....And said "We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets."

Asher now...That's been called inflation, but I claim it isn't. Asset appreciation is a change in monetary entitlement. No good or service was acquired to serve as a measure of price.<<<

GF now....I guess we just disagree here. I think owning a share of stock is owning stuff, as much as owning an orange, or a new Mercedes. The only difference, other than their marginal utility to the owner, and possible buyers, is in their liquidity, how easily they can be sold for something close to their buying price.

GF then...>>>>Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default, <<<

Asher now...>>>That appears to be true. It can also be seen as -- creating new money to rescue debtors from failing. New money at lower rates extends the time-frame that an entity, now earning less, has to pay down all he owes. This all now depends on how new buying power of both rolled over, cheaper debt and new cash infusions are allocated by those that receive same.<<<

GF now...Well I think the time for rescuing new or old debtors has passed, the credit excess has become too great for a soft landing. I believe there are quite a few people out there who have no intention of using their generous loan repayment schedules to pay off the debts. they are hoping to get out of payment altogether.

Peter so far I've learned that I don't know how to prove the thesis, which I have gleaned from my reading, that the money supply is already too great or must certainly become so, to support a soft landing. And, that hyperinflation is inevitable. Someone here or there said that it is impossible to have a deflation with a fiat money. I guess I believe that. But I'm not able to prove it. Thanks for this

Goldfan




goldfan
(02/05/2001; 11:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 47485)
Perplexed (2/4/2001; 18:30:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 47436)
Perplexed I was happy to see your response and I'm sorry I didn't post this to you sooner. Meant it to go yesterday...
My response as follows:
>>>It was considered a trueism several years ago, that the only entity responsible for inflation (being a net consumer rather than a producer of wealth) was government.<<<

I agree in that governments create fiat money, which seems to have the property of always inflating, mostly because no one seems to be able to manage its supply, to keep it scarce enough. It would be the same with gold, if someone were to discover an enormous hoard, and give it all to one group to spend.

>>>I have had a major problem accepting the fact that inflation has not existed to any appreciable degree for the last 20 years, as I have observed an ever increasing mountain of debt.

To my apparently infantile mind, (our "public servants" view) the debt is nothing more than taxes which are not being levied upon the current population to pay the total cost of government.<<<<<

I agree in that governments create fiat money which seems to have the property of always inflating, mostly because no one seems to be able to manage its supply, to keep it scarce enough. It would be the same with gold, if someone were to discover an enormous hoard, and give it all to one group to spend.

>>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1. Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

What I would say about this, and I'm groping around in the fog just like you, is that debt gets paid,

1. By someone paying off their borrowing in full as agreed in the contract. If the payment is made to retire bank created debt, then the money disapppears and the money supply is decreased by that amount.

2. by default (repudiation) which leaves the borrowed money still circulating, but without the interest drag on it, so it is easier to spend in goods etc. The default also causes the lender to have to sell some assets ( at 20X as much maybe because of fractional reserve banking) to preserve his reserve ratio. This fire sale drops the asset valuations, so he has to sell still more maybe, and so on. Nevertheless, the original money borrowed to fund the purchase of these now reduced value assets, is still circulating, though the the interest drag is still on it, if it is a bond. If it is stocks, then the reduced value may be causing other tightening up, margin loans getting called, spending curtailed because one isn't so wealthy anymore. Not only people stop spending when they feel less wealthy, so do corporations.

2. Taxes. Only if governments use tax money to pay off government debt at the Fed is money extinguished. Any other use of tax money of for example to purchase treasury bonds from the market, just keeps the money circulating, but without the interest rate drag on it, so it can more easily go into inflation of goods and services prices.

3. Currency depreciation. Reduced purchasing power doesn't pay off debt or reduce money supply. Unless the money is used to pay off bank created debt, it just keeps circulating, although it has reduced purchasing power.
FWIW

Thanks for your interest,


Goldfan

beesting
(02/05/2001; 11:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 47486)
Follow up for Peter Asher # 47437...Banking.
Hi again Peter, part of your post:

<<out 8 to10 times your DEPOSITS from customers, but that all the additional money you
issue must be borrowed from the central bank at the �wholesale' rate and your gross profit
is only the additional �retail' amount of interest you can obtain beyond that. I imagine
you could leverage a gold deposit to the CB likewise, but I still think you would be
paying the CB the "Fed Funds" rate on every dollar loaned out to you costumers.>>>

beesting:
Just talked to my long time banking loan officer friend, and she says "ALL" the loans the bank holds can be used as collateral to back new loans.So, I think that answers our mutual question. What seems to happen to "Break a Bank" is when the money flow from the public starts to decline. Loss of jobs,injuries,divorces,natural disasters, etc etc... make operating expenses higher than cash flow...than the whole bank may be in trouble. She says her bank "Buys"(Pays by check the same as you or me, from our checking accounts.) cash from a local subsidary of the Central Bank, when needed.
Some additional information from her:
Banks stay in business mostly by paying on going expenses from "interest recieved" on loans, however they make an extra killing if it's a buyers market, and they can forclose on a property that has a lot of "equity".(Example:Recieving $150,000 when re-selling a house, when the mortgage was paid down to say $60,000) My friend also believes a devaluation of the dollar is immenent, but doesn't know when, she is also accumulating Gold & Silver, and she's "In The Know"!....beesting.
DaveC
(02/05/2001; 12:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 47487)
Pandagold on world poverty
"There exists some of the worst poverty in the world" in the US?

I have travelled the world, and especially the USA, and I do not believe this to be true.

All you have to do is go down to Mexico and you will see life like nothing you can find in America.

At least not yet.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(02/05/2001; 12:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 47488)
More on this Treasury situation we discussed last week
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010205/n05418490_2.htmlThe U.S. Treasury Department will auction $11 billion in 4-3/4 year notes Tuesday, followed by an equal amount in ten-year notes on Wednesday, capping the week with a $10 billion auction in 30-year bonds on Thursday--which some believe may be the last of its kind on the basis of last week's informal recommendation of the Treasury's advisory committee to end the issue of the long bond in light of projected government budget surpluses.

Jim Claire, director of fixed income trading at First Union National Bank, told Reuters, "While we are having an auction this week, it's probably going to be the last new long bond for quite some time -- for years and years."

Notions of additional Fed rate cuts has helped to bolster prices on short-term Treasury issues, while expectations of reduced or terminated long-term issues helps to keep these outlying bonds on their legs. It shall work only so long as the dollar does not take a visible hit on its chin.

To help you put this all together, in discussing this last week you may recall we mentioned how capital gains taxes could be in essence seen as "inflation taxes" (or "currency devaluation taxes") as future "smaller dollars" appear to measure (with prices) today's things much larger at a later day....giving rise to capital gains taxes though no real gain occurred, just smaller currency units.

We also talked about a "balloon trying to blow itself up to fill a party room" in an effort to explain the Fed's challenge to keep the banking system liquid via easing domestic policy to compensate for the international shift away from dollar usage.

In recent weeks we also talked about this apparent evolution in the structure of our monetary system, shifting away from government debt toward more commercial debt as the monetary base, and it this we decode some of the meaning behind the Treasury's "strong dollar policy" assurances often quoted on the world stage. The current dollar system is an old legacy over which the world's many players have grown weary. Owing to its reserve status/usage, the transition from the old free ride structure (which provided many years of "deficits without tears") to one more compatible to the international trend (euro-style reserve and banking model) will impact the dollar (and perceived wealth of its holders) moreso than any other. Gold will carry you grandly through such a transition...old world wealth with a value yet hidden behind the legacy dollar system and its counterpart derivatives. Buy yours while conditions remain in your favor.
N.M.
(02/05/2001; 12:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 47489)
JMB
I'm kind of new to this stuff. Where did you get that information (stopping delivery on GS's part) and could you explain a little more about "stopping" delivery (what it exactly entails, etc). Sorry for the ignorance. Please enlighten me.

sstins
(02/05/2001; 12:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 47490)
Question for Trail Guide
or anyone else that might be able to provide some insight.

After having gone back over some of Another's and FOA's posts of 98, it is apparant that both felt the gold market was soon to embark on an enormous change. This change it seems was thought to occur sometime in 99. What event or events in your opinion has delayed this transition.

Are you and Another still looking for a default to be the catalyst for this impending implosion of the gold market as we know it?

Finally, I believe we are well on the road to the ultimate end you right about. What kind of time frame would you guess much of this will come about?

I Apologize in advance if you've already addressed this in prior posts.

Thanks!

ss
Pandagold
(02/05/2001; 12:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 47491)
Dave C

You must pour though my postings with one thing in mind, not to understand the essence of what I write - incidentally
in this case acknowledging a comment from an American who was pointing out to me what I was acknowledging here (see the post to which this refers), but your objective appears to be finding one piece, take it out of context and try and score a point.

Never mind you having been to Mexico - where have you been in America? At least, if you live in a cardboard box in Mexico, you are reasonably warm - try it in Chicago, or New York, or Detroit, yes and London, in January.

There is also much more family togetherness in many of these countries which helps to make poverty more bearable.
When you have nothing in the US - man YOU HAVE NOTHING.

If you don't care for my postings, and can't see them in context and identify the essence,then pass them over PLEASE!

I am not anti -American, or anti any other country in this small world of ours. I have a son who is a US citizen by birth, and married to a US citizen. I also lived there many years and have friends all over the country. I travelled it in my job from North to South, East to West. I have seen the best, and the worst. I took US history at school in great depth.

So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner
beesting
(02/05/2001; 13:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 47492)
Japan! Opinion!
Sir, tg asks;
tg (02/05/01; 02:08:46MT msg#: 47466)
>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, even
though over the last few years the government has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<

I lived in Japan and I'll give an opinion only...
Since 1971 the Japanese "Yen", unlike most of the rest of the worlds currencies, has "apprieciated"(gone up in value) from a low of 360 Yen to the dollar to as high as 80 Yen to the dollar, however internal Japanese inflation has also gone up. Which means Japanese money can buy more goods from overseas spending less Yen than before,but things at home(Japan) are more expensive than 30 years ago.
Now, it's been said the Japanese are the worlds most thrifty people and keeping a few thousand Yen hidden at home has always been a normal practice especially since when I was there homes are just as safe as banks for storing valuables. So, the "paper"Yen hidden at home since 1971 may not have been "de-valued" as much as the U.S. dollar and the rest of the worlds currencies.
The "Banks and lenders" are the ones in trouble in Japan and here's why; The "Big" spenders, companies, and top bosses, made a lot of money during Japan's "Go Go" days. They invested their money in real estate bidding up the prices much, much higher than they should have. Because they were the highest class of Japanese society they had no trouble obtaining bank loans.(The good old boys system) They were all buying with the expectation of selling to make a huge "profit."( Does this sound like the recent U.S. stock market?)Eventually there were no more real estate buyers, as noone wanted to bid prices any higher. Than the prices in real estate started to plummet because their were no buyers. Eventually the real estate prices were much lower than the loans that were made to finance the original loan. So,borrowers quit making payments to banks on real estate they couldn't sell, which has still not been resolved to this day. Many big banks are in trouble.
Why is Japan almost giving away money?( low interest rates) My take is to try to get more money flowing to the people to try to start the bidding war again on real estate, but the people are not falling for it as the money put into circulation is again hidden "Under the tea pot" to be saved for a rainy day.(many older folks still remember extreme poverty caused by WWII, and yes, some starvation.) Also since real estate crashed they reason companies with debt may go out of business,(banks) causing continued sell offs in stocks.(loss of confidence) Although released unemployment figures seem higher than before, I would guess most Japanese that want to work, are working at "under the table" jobs, most are extremely industrious. When I was there many, many people worked 7 days a week 12 or more hours a day.Another thing I learned to admire about the Japanese people, "They Hate Paying Taxes!!!" And many may figure out how to survive without paying taxes.
Hope this helps....beesting.
ge
(02/05/2001; 13:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 47493)
From Kitco - Did you see this?
http://laws.lp.findlaw.com/getcase/US/456/353.htmlThanks to
longj (aurator - trial transcript) ID#30345:
and
ted butler (@Wow - the Supremes, sounding like kitco) ID#370209:

BEGIN QUOTE

One of the futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange provided for the delivery of a railroad car lot of
50,000 pounds of Maine potatoes at a designated place on the Bangor and Aroostook Railroad during the period between May
7, 1976, and May 25, 1976. Trading in this contract commenced early in 1975 and terminated on May 7, 1976. On two
occasions during this trading period the Department of Agriculture issued reports containing estimates that total potato stocks,
and particularly Maine potato stocks, were substantially down from the previous year. This information [456 U.S. 353, 370] had the
understandable consequences of inducing investors to purchase May Maine potato futures contracts (on the expectation that
they would profit from a shortage of potatoes in May) and farmers to demand a higher price for their potatoes on the cash
market. 43

To counteract the anticipated price increases, a group of entrepreneurs described in the complaints as the "short sellers" formed
a conspiracy to depress the price of the May Maine potato futures contract. The principal participants in this "short conspiracy"
were large processors of potatoes who then were negotiating with a large potato growers association on the cash market. The
conspirators agreed to accumulate an abnormally large short position in the May contract, to make no offsetting purchases of
long contracts at a price in excess of a fixed maximum, and to default, if necessary, on their short commitments. They also agreed
to flood the Maine cash markets with unsold potatoes. This multifaceted strategy was designed to give the growers association
the impression that the supply of Maine potatoes would be plentiful. On the final trading day the short sellers had accumulated a
net short position of almost 1,900 contracts, notwithstanding a Commission regulation 44 limiting their lawful net position to 150
contracts. They did, in fact, default.

END QUOTE
rc
(02/05/2001; 13:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 47494)
Mad cow desease
@ChristianYour explanation of the mad cow desease makes a lot of sense.

I always thought there was something fishy in a theory that surmises a protein creates another protein.

If you are right, then this is just the beginning. The 21 century will be a world of doom and gloom as never in history aside perhaps during the Spanish flu or the Black Plague times. I suspect it could even be worse.

For some times already I think that, at some point, humanity will stretch its luck a little too far. And Mother Nature will react. With terrible consequences.

Rhody
(02/05/2001; 13:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 47495)
LEASE RATES
Today gold lease rate spreads contracted to .32%. The
lease rate pipe just contracted significantly towards
backwardation. One year leases dropped .06% meaning
mine producers continue to close out hedges.
Overall lease rates are at very low levels, indicating
a marked tendency by borrowers to avoid adding to metal
debt at these low spot prices.
Tree in the Forest
(02/05/2001; 13:35:24 MDT - Msg ID: 47496)
But they wouldn't manipulate gold would they?
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3H9GT9TIC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=ZZZOMSJK30C⊂heading=USLeading US banks - including Chase Manhattan and Bank of America - have become facilitators in money laundering by operating so-called correspondent accounts for high-risk foreign banks, it says.
IronHead
(02/05/2001; 13:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 47497)
tg - Japan Recession, Your #47466
Sir tg - I'll be happy to give you my thumbnail sketch of what I believe is occuring with respect to Japnan, but please view it only as casual observation by one with an un-educated view from experience on the street, as opposed to scholarly analysis from reading stats published by "their" and "our" officials, non of which from our side have probably ever set foot at Narita airport Jp.

As I've mentioned here before, my wife is Japanese, which has led me to a wonderful cultural exchange and the opportunity to travel and stay in Japan for the last ten years. I was in Japan in late 89-90 during their market plunge, so have some reference as to how things were then and now, with the last visit about one year ago.

I don't buy into the story about the Japanese economy being in dire straits, and think it's only propaganda from both sides to keep us buying and them selling. With 0 natural resources other than the human ability to design and manufacture anything better than most others, it is apparent to all that Japan must export to stay alive. To do so requires capital, which we provide, as evidenced by the enormous trade surplus they constantly run. We are all mostly in agreement that Japan takes the excess surplus and buys into our debt load with both fists.

My off the cuff observation is based on having been there, and of a good lifelong friend whom has lived in Japan for over ten years, working as a headhunter for virtually all the top companies in Japan at one time or another. We talk often and he and I have come to the same conclusion - it's bunk, pure and simple. From our viewpoint employment is still full on, prices are still darn high compared to what we pay for food, housing, transportation (I know it sure eats my US fiat fast when there - how about $8-10 dollars for a melon?) and everyone we know, still has a job, eats, lives in some form of abode, enjoys life's pleasures with recreation, and generally seem about the same as they were ten years ago. His business is the business of people and he's never been more busy, with the competition for bodies at an all time high.

Considering at least to this point in time, our consumption of Japan's goods has not been abated in the slightest. With the trade deficit as it stands, the dollar yen ratio kept in check by Bank of Japan buying of dollars every time the yen makes a move, and their un-employment still at levels envious to the rest of the world's economies, how could the supposed deflationary recession be occuring?

Admittedly Japan's people are the consumate savers - with last I read about $66,000 US for each man, woman, and child (possibly dogs and cats too) the money does not appear to be flowing into the economy, but from what I've seen, everything appears just as it alway has. For me it boils down to Japan needing the export market, fed by our need for debt relief sustenance, and if ever either drops the ball or changes the rules, the game is over for both teams. Perhaps I'm not seeing what is under the surface there, as most of us don't see what is under the surface here? Good possibility, and if the substrate in Japan is anywhere near as mushy as here, we're all sunk. At least they've got that $66K - or do they?

Regarding gold as a wealth asset for the individual - everyone I've ever tried to talk to about gold, looks at me as if I'm trying to sell them a right hand drive American car. Most from my experience, (relatives primarily) seem to really trust their banking system, and seem really incredulous when I mention the possibility of bank failure, or the fact they are getting less than 2% interest, or that other Asian currencies were virtually wiped out recently. Oh well, we'll watch together. Sorry if this is not the quantitative analysis you were looking for, but sometimes the old adage about "figures don't lie, but liars can figure" comes to play.

Gold - got a yen for it?

Salutations
IronHead

Mountain Top
(02/05/2001; 14:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 47498)
Pandagold
I read with some interest your message that caused the reply by Dave C and your reply then to him. First of all let me say that I am an American whose travel to exotic lands has been limited to Canada and New Jersey so I am obviously not qualified to give an opinion but, I would like to ask about poverty in places like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh when compared to the United States. After a lifetime of being told that I live in the wealthest country in the world where even our poorest are better off than most of the rest of the world and that people from most of the rest of the world dream of coming here, I am somewhat taken aback. That is not to say that I would be shocked to find out that I have been lied to by our politicians. Respectfully MT
goldfan
@tg (msg#: 47466)

Some thoughts in response....
>>>>More dollars won't be chasing the same number of goods, because the indebtedness of the American consumer is at a all time high.
(How do you get a horse that is quenched to drink more.)<<<<<

The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy.

>>>>It all comes down to a matter of confidence. The American consumer will eventually sense the fear of recession and tighten there belts.( They have already started)<<<

Agreed, and when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer.

>>>>I like this analogy from George Ure, "In the economy, as debt builds up, the economy has to move faster and faster to stay even. Debt load, like ice loading, causes a lack of lift. Beyond certain limits, debt is to the economy, what ice is to a wing. The Fed's moves are designed to keep the wing flying.

Debt is continuing to build up on the economic wing, and we're losing lift!<<<<

Yes and what crashes is the purchasing value of the currency.


>>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, eeven though over the last few years the goverment has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<<

As I understand it, it is because the Japanese people save a huge proportion of what they earn, in their mattresses, or in the government post office bank. It means the government has to fund all sorts of projects to create vehicles in which the people's savings can be invested, even at practically no interest rate. Also, the Japanese trade surplus with the US (primarily) allows them to invest the US$ balance they get in US asset markets.

The Japanese people have obviously not lost confidence in their currrency. maybe this is because it is tied so closely to the US$, which is still perceived as strong.

Hope this is some help. These are just my opinions, I'm no expert.

Goldfan


Backwardator
Journeyman
As a confirmed lurker, I lacked a password when your contest inspired me to participate. It just arrived, so in the hope my entries are still eligible, I humbly offer:

Fed-Wipes
Greenspasms
Shamplasters
DebtRags
AUtistic
One more time
http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html Since I've seen no replies to this link, which was posted yesterday, I can only assume, it's length (24 pgs.) is consuming peoples time, or it might be considered boring. (circa 1934) Perhaps, however, the saying still applies,-----Ignorance IS bliss!!!!!!!
Peter Asher
Beesting, Ironhead:

My instant replay on your (many thanks) Japan posts, suggest that the "Recession" in Japan is suffered by the predatory "wealth transfer" folks, whereas the people who actually produce something are doing OK. In order to draw any comparison analysis for looking at the US- boomerama, it would help to know what was the percentage of investment participation in their stock market at its peak.
Pandagold
Mountain Top


I am amazed. I think I should organise a poverty tour - providing we could get adequate police protection as we tour some of the areas. And we don't don't need to travel too far from Manhatten, for some pretty bad places. (please see the section on New York in the stats). Do you remember the cabby's comment to Eddie Murphy when he dropped him off
in Queens (NY), after asking to be taken to a poor area of NY (I forget the movie) -"How shitty do you want it"

But there are people living in cardboard boxes (literally) in most of the large cites

What makes it so bad in America, is that it exists alongside, comparitively, such contrasting wealth. But America is not alone, as I have said, in the western world, it is just that the way it is projected by media - we don't, and apparently some Americans don't, expect such things to exist.

What I am talking about is people with no means of support, except begging, no home, no job, sleeping rough - in doorways, cardboard boxes.........I mean, how much futher down the ladder can you go.

What makes it different in the US from these other countries you mention is that the balance is different there is a greater percentage of poverty, larger populations, and the infrastructure reflects it.

My first trip to Hollywood, California, just walking down the Boulevard, I was accosted about four times for handouts.

I haven't the time to go into this further and put forward a more explicit paper. But glance through the folowing stats
especially the part at the bottom - how America stacks up

Thanks for the polite way you ask for explanation


One limited measure of the growth in homelessness is the increase in the number of shelter beds over time. A 1991 study examined homelessness "rates" (the number of shelter beds in a city divided by the city's population) in 182 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. The study found that homelessness rates tripled between 1981 and 1989 for the 182 cities as a group (Burt, 1997).
A 1997 review of research conducted over the past decade (1987-1997) in 11 communities and 4 states found that shelter capacity more than doubled in nine communities and three states during that time period (National Coalition for the Homeless, 1997). In two communities and two states, shelter capacity tripled over the decade.

These numbers are useful for measuring the growth in demand for shelter beds (and the resources made available to respond to that growth) over time. They indicate a dramatic increase in homelessness in the United States over the past two decades.


Recent studies suggest that the United States generates homelessness at a much higher rate than previously thought. Our task in ending homelessness is thus more important now than ever

Poverty's Effect on Children
Unfortunately, not all America's poor have been so fortunate. According to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau in September 1996, 13.8% of Americans live in poverty. Many more are on the borderline. Poverty affects all ages, but an astonishing 48% percent of its victims are children:

About 15 million children -- one out of every four -- live below the official poverty line.

22% of Americans under the age of 18 -- and 25% under age 12 -- are hungry or at the risk of being hungry.

Everyday 2,660 children are born into poverty; 27 die because of it.

Children and families are the fastest growing group in the homeless population, representing 40%.

Poverty in New York City

Domestic poverty knows no geographical barriers, but it is especially widespread here in New York City. The latest study released in 1995 by the Citizens Committee for Children of New York reveals that New York children fare worse in virtually every category than their counterparts at the state and national level. This includes low birth weight, infant mortality, violence-related deaths, abuse and neglect, education, and job preparedness.

Life for New York City children is getting worse:

25% of New Yorkers are children.


762,000 children live in poverty.

181 babies are born into poverty each day.

10,000 children are homeless. This number has doubled since 1988.

In addition to these sad statistics, many New York City children read and do math below grade level. An estimated 38.9% of the city's school children will graduate high school, compared to 68.8% for all American students.



How the USA Stacks Up
Among the 21 most affluent nations, the United States has the highest percentage of poor children. In fact, our rate is twice that of the country next in line.

Furthermore, the September 1996 welfare reform bill cut $60 billion in aid to poor families within a period of six years. It is estimated that this will throw one million more children into poverty. Sadly, even though we are the richest industrialized nation, we are the stingiest with aid to our own children.

Prospects for Their Future
Too many young Americans go to bed with empty stomachs. They wake up to seemingly hopeless futures: school problems, unemployment, welfare, gangs, drugs, and crime. Children of poverty are more likely to suffer young and violent deaths.

Mentally and physically malnourished for the first five years of their lives, they are unable to keep up in class. One national study projects that almost a million children who will have started school in September 1996, will encounter serious problems. Many will drop out or finish high school functionally illiterate.


Boxman
Pandagold, DaveC, and Mountain Top
I think that Mountain Top's post #47498 is civil, however, subject to attack, as this appears to be Pandagolds modus opperandi. I am fully aware that all of the Knights at this round table are more than capable of defending themselves, but I have a brother like Pandagold. He has the inate ability to get belligerent at any hint of anything that he thinks, says or does may be called into question. He also has the ability to P*** O** the Pope, just by saying good morning. Maybe this is why I now open myself up to attack.

I apologize for taking up so much bandwidth, but felt that these three posts should be posted in their entirety, as one of the complaints from Pandagold is that things are taken out of context. I defy anyone to come to the conclusion that DaveC is anything other than civil with his response.

Pandagold, I have been trying to figure you out for some time now, and the only thing that I can come up with is that you are arrogantly snide. Go to Wyoming or some other western state, get some sun and wind on that ornery hide of yours and toughen up your skin.

Even though I am on a rant, and realize that I may suffer banishment from this forum, I will still be blunt. You are blatantly incorrect concerning the poor in this country versus the poor in the rest of the world. You remember my mention of my brother? He is poor, and homeless. Guess why? It is because this is the way he choses to live his life. Most of the homeless in this country have drinking, drug, or psychological problems.They are also generally misfits of society. They can not or will not abide by societies rules. Help is there for anyone that wishes it.

This is the last sentence of your post #47491 - "So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner"

Surley you jest?



Pandagold post #47477
I very much agree with what you say. America is a mixed bag of tricks. There exists some of the worst poverty in the world, and, on the other end of the spectrum, most of the extreme 'rich'

In California more riches are lavished by some on their pooches in one week, than a 'human-bean' has to live on for a whole year in some third world countries.

Unfortunately this sort of crap gets projected to the world.
Rarely is the more poverty side acknowledged by media ie the 'carboard cities' that abound. If ever we glimpse 'the other side of the tracks' it is usually in some 1920's era
setting, as though it only existed in the past.



I also know that most of this high living is on debt - a debt made possible by the rest of the world keep accepting these green iou's'.

Other parts of the western world are also enjoying a higher standard than they would if some of these 'banana republics'
got a little better deal than at present.

I have travelled far and wide, and not on one of these - 'It's Tuesday so it must be Paris' trips. So I know the score.

I know that we can never have an ideal world, and most people accept that, it is just that things have now become a bit skewed, don't you think. It is when you get extreme excesses and a diminishing cushion in between that the real problems start.

And that is where we are at. At least, that is how I see it.

I appreciate, and fully understand your comment.


DaveC post#47487
"There exists some of the worst poverty in the world" in the US?

I have travelled the world, and especially the USA, and I do not believe this to be true.

All you have to do is go down to Mexico and you will see life like nothing you can find in America.

At least not yet.


Pandagold post#47491:
You must pour though my postings with one thing in mind, not to understand the essence of what I write - incidentally
in this case acknowledging a comment from an American who was pointing out to me what I was acknowledging here (see the post to which this refers), but your objective appears to be finding one piece, take it out of context and try and score a point.

Never mind you having been to Mexico - where have you been in America? At least, if you live in a cardboard box in Mexico, you are reasonably warm - try it in Chicago, or New York, or Detroit, yes and London, in January.

There is also much more family togetherness in many of these countries which helps to make poverty more bearable.
When you have nothing in the US - man YOU HAVE NOTHING.

If you don't care for my postings, and can't see them in context and identify the essence,then pass them over PLEASE!

I am not anti -American, or anti any other country in this small world of ours. I have a son who is a US citizen by birth, and married to a US citizen. I also lived there many years and have friends all over the country. I travelled it in my job from North to South, East to West. I have seen the best, and the worst. I took US history at school in great depth.

So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner

Mike

Pandagold
Boxman
Those statistics are not mine. I suggest you read them and digest.

That was not the first brush with Dave C.

You condemn yourself with your words.
Pandagold
Boxman

You probably chose to miss this in your reposts so I will reprint it for you


How the USA Stacks Up
Among the 21 most affluent nations, the United States has the highest percentage of poor children. In fact, our rate is twice that of the country next in line.

Furthermore, the September 1996 welfare reform bill cut $60 billion in aid to poor families within a period of six years. It is estimated that this will throw one million more children into poverty. Sadly, even though we are the richest industrialized nation, we are the stingiest with aid to our own children.

Prospects for Their Future
Too many young Americans go to bed with empty stomachs. They wake up to seemingly hopeless futures: school problems, unemployment, welfare, gangs, drugs, and crime. Children of poverty are more likely to suffer young and violent deaths.

Mentally and physically malnourished for the first five years of their lives, they are unable to keep up in class. One national study projects that almost a million children who will have started school in September 1996, will encounter serious problems. Many will drop out or finish high school functionally illiterate.

You also chose to avoid how I thanked Mountain Top for his courteous comments.

I would love to hear what your brother has to say about you
tg
goldfan
hello goldfan, thankyou for your ideas,

You say, "The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy".
But what happens if the consumer and corporations who are already deeply indebted, decide to pay off loans rather then borrow more.

You say, "when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer."
That is an assumption which may or maynot play out. What happens if there is asset deflation caused by a credit crunch? I think the public would rather be holding dollars under that scenario.

I am not sure my logic is sound, but as i see it if people are in debt, then they dont have any money to buy hard assets.

Leigh
Hydroman
Thank you for your interesting post! We're seriously looking into purchasing a tiny farm (4.5 acres) here in Northern Virginia, and I want to make it pay for itself in every way. We plan to landscape with nut trees and plant an orchard on one of the pastures. The house itself (a Depression-era cottage) gets its water from rainwater cisterns! I plan to set my nine-year-old to experimenting with different gardening styles (hydroponics, greenhouse, etc.). Not only will it be a fun change from our energy-hog house in town, but in the event of a breakdown in society, it will be a place to escape to.

It was exciting to read your post about hydroponics. Last summer I was paying $3.98 for hydroponic basil plants from Fresh Fields, and they only provided enough basil for a meal or two! So I'd like to be able to garden and get them for free.

Black Blade, Hydroman's right; your posts are amazing.
Pandagold
Mountain Top

I tried to answer your question the best way I could, given I have little time. I tried to support it with some statistics.

I thanked you for the courteous manner in which you responded to my posting.

Now if my posting offended you, as Boxman says, then please tell me. I will then extend to you an apology, and will make that my last posting on this forum.

It rests with you
Pandagold
Pandagold
Topaz
Thank you for your help with my PC problem. It is a fairly new PC (Pentium 3) and it does have windows 98.

Excuse my ignorance but what is the 'OS' you refer to?
Hi-Hat
Leigh_____Heaven
A Farmette is a little slice of heaven. I'm on 10 acres
myself. Have a large Gogher Turtle that lives under my
air conditioner unit. Deer,fox,armadillos,possums,monkey
squirrels,quail,raccoon, visit often.

Plenty of edibles growing. Best part of day is pulling
back down in driveway.
Peter Asher
USA Gold
The Eagle has landed
Lady liberty has been properly fondled and tucked away, to awaken at the dawn of the new age.
Peter Asher
@ Hydroman

Have you tied these 'ponics in with "envelope" frame designs?

BTW 'ponics were already frequent inhabitants of sci-fi stories way back in the early fifties
Mountain Top
Panda Gold
Sir;
I was most assuredly not offended nor did I intend to offend. It seemed an opportunity to gain insight from one who has been in a position to see those things which I have not. Please do not leave this forum. I am sure that their are others besides me who can benefit from your postings. I am new on this board so it is entirely possible that the way my questions to you were worded did not convey that it was information I sought and in no wise questioned what you had said.
LA-ed Back
Stagflation: Some Notes
I have been reading the posts on this board for some months now. I do not believe America's current economic condition has been characterized as stagflation by many participants.
Classical economists (Marx, von Mises, Keynes) never really had much to say about stagflation. I suspect that they did not believe this condition was possible. The last time there was much public discussion about the phenomenon was during the 'Seventies.
Central bank monetary policy is a blunt instrument. The bank can either increase the rate of monetary growth, reduce the growth rate, or turn the rate negative. Efforts to
"Channel" credit availability only create opportunities for arbitrage. The basic rule for the bank is simple: during recession, accelerate monetary growth. In boom times, reduce
the rate. In inflationary times, set the growth rate to negative.
But today, there is evidence of both recession and inflation. The Fed is on the horns of a dilemna. Any clear monetary policy will produce a large destructive result. This is stagflation.
I am aware of only four episodes of stagflation in America in the last one hundred years. The first was the 1929 - 1930 era. The second was the 1973 - 1974 era, the third was the 1980 - 1981 era, and the last one is now.
The first aspect of stagflation is the confusion it produces everywhere - in the central bank, in the major banks, among pension fund managers, and with the general public.
The second aspect of stagflation is that it follows hard on the heels of some major error of judgment in the capital markets. The 1929 error is a classic, but major errors were made in the "Favorite Fifty" stock market of 1973, and last year's dot-com and telecom mania. The 1980 - 1981 error was the real estate / second mortgage mania.
Political responses to alleviate the condition of stagflation have varied. The 1929 - 1930 response was the classical conservative Republican formula: cut government spending, increase taxes (preferably to foreigners), and wait. The intent was to reduce the cost of capital to Wall Street, allowing banks to work out the bad loans. The wealth preserved by the richer half of the population would, it was hoped, trickle down to the poorer half.
The 1973 - 1974 and 1980 - 1981 eras saw the liberal, Democratic approach: use price controls, increase government spending, use credit allocation controls, and raise interest
rates. The intent was to allocate purchasing power to the poorer half of the population. Money would flow to the richer half through the natural course of events.
Today's approach is as yet unformulated, largely because of the equal division of power between Democrats and Republicans. Since both parties want to keep Wall Street happy, I believe whatever produces the most income for investment bankers will be the policy adopted: easy money, and a lot of debt restructures.
The conclusion to all periods of stagflation is the same - all the quick, easy nostrums fail, and the nation experieces a nasty recession, at best.

The effects on gold are mixed. The 1933 financial collapse did wonders for gold, provided the owners of gold turned scofflaw. The 1980 - 1981 period's effects on gold's price are well known here. However, the modern era of uncontrolled gold prices began in January 1975. During the course of that year, the price of gold dropped in half, from $200/oz. to
$100 /oz.

Boxman
Pandagold
Pandagold, I have reread my post, and I can not find the statement where I said anything about offending Mountain Top. I only said that his post was subject to attack. Somehow, I seriously doubt that he was offended. Seems to me it's you that gets offended easily.

Sorry, I don't talk politics much anymore, as it is difficult in the extreme to have either side understand the other. I will say this though, when it comes to poverty statistics in this country, all forms of aid are conviently left out, and only raw income numbers are used. I have read in the past as to the staggering number of the "poor" have telephones, color televisions, cars, homes, air conditioning, and of course the "children" must always be mentioned. Starvation is, for all practical purposes, nonexistant. I guess that the government has not figured out how to get any of that 1.8 trillion dollars in tax money to the needy.

You also stated, in your last post; ""You probably chose to miss this in your reposts so I will reprint it for you"

and


"You also chose to avoid how I thanked Mountain Top for his courteous comments.""

Sorry, I had already sent my post before I had read yours. I doubt that I would have said anything, even had I read it, as it is irrelevant and unworthy of response.

And this:

"I would love to hear what your brother has to say about you""

As I said earlier, you are arrogantly snide.

This is the United States of America, the most giving country this world has ever known. We not only take care of our citizens that are in true need, but we are always to be counted on throughout the world whenever disaster strikes. We may not ask for help from outside whenever disaster strikes here, but it would be refreshing to at least get an occasional offer.

Well, enough of this drivel, back to lurking. This means that I am done with the banter. Just had to get you off of my chest.

Mike
IronHead
Lady Leigh - Greetings and Congratulations
Hello Grand Lady of this Castle Keep - always a treat to see your presence amongst the boyz. A hearty congratulation on your aquisition of the other "real" wealth.

Hydro is great for when the sun is too short, or the soil too poor, but nothing beats good organic dirt mixed by hand with a green manure of compost, and ole sol driving those seedlings to yield. Do to limited water availability my wife and I installed a hose type drip irrigation system for our herb and veggy garden, as well as our fruit trees. Works fantastic with great conservation of water, no leaf or fruit damage from over-head spray, and can be easily put on a timing system when away.

Hydroman is right in his analysis of what and why hydro can help to save mama earth. [I'd like to know what Sir Peter is refering to with his "envelope" frame design?]

Sorry if this is off topic, but without Wolavka to remind us that grain is golden, and even Sir FOA indicating his preference for home grown herbs, I guess we're in line, no?

Salutations
IronHead
Gandalf the White
Quiry to Lady Leigh
The Hobbits are wondering if the P.O. proof package arrived the second time ? As I was coated in LEAD, it may have been slow in transport, BUT, all other packages have been acknowledged as having been recieved by the Goldhearts.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
< ; - )
NOW, if I could only learn to spell ANGRIT correctly !
<;-(
IronHead
Beesting, Peter Asher, Tree in the Forest - Japan Revisited
Sir Beesting - Akemashte Omedeto! Your comments on Japan today brought back memories of a time I hope we avoid here in the US when our bubble really starts to vaporize, but I doubt it will be much different, particularly the real estate (GSE - Fanny Freddy) debacle ready to unwind. Thank you for putting Ironhead in the same sentence with a true American hero, one Andrew (Stonewall) Jackson - whom I put up with another great, Teddy Roosevelt.

Sir Peter Asher - Agree completely; that at what level was the average "Yoshiro" on the street participating at the height of the Japan apex, as well as what was the derivative /fund arena, a contributor to their market largesse and subsequent demise? I doubt that the equity derivative book was nearly what we've got set up here today. However, all the charts I've seen sure do draw some scary parallels, to what the final outcome might be. And I've got the same "feeling" in my bones that I did in Japan in '89.

Really enjoyed the badminton match betwix you and Sir Goldfan over the weekend - felt like I was watching a version of speed chess economics. Hey, what's that envelope frame system about? Any links? TIA

Sir Tree in the Forest - Ahh.... regarding your comment about "Japanese women making the best wives"...Ahh....I could really unleash a major faux pas with that one. Suffice to say, that may wife is the best I could ever hope for, and she just happens to be Japanese.....wheeeew....(hope that came across ok?)

On the subject of two wheelers: Remember, this life aint practice.....And.. "The more I know about women, the more I love my motorcyle".....Oh Oh....there's that faux pas!! Just in Jest folks!!

Tree - A Ride, get you one again!!

Salutations
IronHead

Sierra Madre
Japan and the Japanese...
With regard to the behaviour of the Japanese....

It seems to me that we cannot derive much instruction from the situation in which the Japanese currently find themselves, which may be of use in predicting how the American people will react to the problems ahead.
This, because the Japanese culture is so different from the American.

I would refer those interested, to Ruth Benedict's most interesting investigation of Japanese culture contained in her book, "The Chrysanthemum and the Sword".

This book, as I recall, was made possible by the interest the U.S. Government had, during WWII, of acquiring some insight into the motivation of the Japanese. That is, a "know your enemy" interest.

Again, as I recall, Benedict shows that the Japanese, at the time of her investigations, early 40's, were then a very highly unified people, completely identified with their Authorities, incarnated in the Emperor. Individualism was not, and perhaps still is not, considered a quality but rather a defect. Conformity to the accepted behaviour was a paramount value. Perhaps this is still the case, and what is accepted behaviour in Japan, is to accumulate paper money or paper money accounts.

To accumulate gold, would not appear to be an accepted pattern of behaviour. (Does anyone have information regarding the legality or illegality of gold purchases by Japanese?)

The Japanese were in the 40's, and perhaps they still are today, a people who did not wish to behave in inappropriate manner. Such behaviour was considered highly shameful, and perhaps this has not changed that much since WWII. That would explain why the Japanese are saving and saving, in a situation where we in the West would long ago have begun getting rid of cash and bidding up prices of things to the moon. Their behaviour is not our behaviour pattern.

The thought has struck me, that the final outcome of this Japanese persistence in accepted patterns of behaviour, will be a TOTAL DISASTER for Japanese culture, because eventually, the Japanese will lose, with the purchasing power of their accumulated bank balances, all faith in their Authorities. And when that happens, all hell is going to break lose in Japan together with the loss of confidence in everything that Japan stands for.
elevator guy
Calling all erudite! Calling all erudite types!
Hey, does anyone know about the National Republican Congressional Committee, in Washington DC? And the Business Advisory Council?

(I know, I know, I'm a dummy in civic matters.)

If anyone knows something about this organization, and committee, I'd be grateful for any info.
elevator guy
Here's something on it, ....please stay in your seat.
National Republican Congressional Committee - provides financial and political support to Republicans running for the House of US Representatives.

I'm going back in to see what else I can find out. (!!!)
Black Blade
RE: Beowulf, tedw, ORO, and hydroman
Beowulf #47421

In answer to your question about uranium producers, there are some still around. Cameco (CCJ) engages in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining and conversion of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. It also explores for, develops, mines and sells gold. Cameco is still in the uranium mining business. Another interesting company that I had stock in is Usec (USU). They are the world leader in the sale of uranium fuel enrichment services for commercial nuclear power plants. Uranium enrichment is a critical step in transforming uranium into fuel for nuclear reactors to produce electricity. I know that recently there has been a lot of discussion about implementation of a national nuclear power generating program. This will be a tough sell, even if a lot of people are inconvenienced with rolling blackouts, etc. There have been a lot of scare tactics over the years, and with nuclear breakdowns such as Three mile Island in Pennsylvania where the containment safeguards prevented disaster and with the outright disaster of Chernobyl in the Soviet Union where there were few safeguards, as well as propaganda films such as "China Syndrome", it does not appear that nuclear power will come to a town near you anytime soon. Unfortunately, there is still significant opposition to nuclear power in the US. Japan and France have been able to mitigate their power needs with several nuclear power generating facilities. Who knows, perhaps someday nuclear fusion will become a viable option. As it is, Duke Energy (DUK) has been buying nuclear power plants over the last few years. An expanded nuclear program would go a long way to achieving some independence from foreign oil. BTW, my youngest brother is a nuclear physicist who got his start as a nuclear engineer in the Navy and has since went on to get his Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics. He currently works at the DOE. As far as solar panels are concerned, they have come down in price and could probably become more cost effective for homeowners if electricity prices continue higher. The old solar panels were not of high quality and required some maintenance. However, I understand that some manufacturers have come a long way to improve their product. Astropower (APWR) has enjoyed a resurgence of sales and a higher stock valuation as well. Unfortunately it does not address the issue of power for many of the heaviest users in industry. Personal solar power units could definitely help and if prices are lowered, it could convince more people of the benefits.



Tedw #47370

Thankyou, I do hope you're referring to PETA (People Eating Tasty Animals). ;-)


ORO #47388

I understand where you're coming from with regard to the Alaska Initiative. I think that government involvement is inevitable. My point was that if there is going to be any effort to explore and produce NG and oil from Alaska, or anywhere else for that matter, then they had better get off their duffs and get to it. I think that it's already too late to avert a severe energy shortfall no matter what. I would suspect that the government would auction leases in ANWR as they do now in the Gulf Region. Anytime there is a way to profit from something, the FEDs will be there with both hands held out.

Hydroman #47505

Interesting post. Some of the best tasting tomatoes that I had other than vine ripened tomatoes, were hydroponic tomatoes. You simply can't find any decent tomatoes at a supermarket. I used to subscribe to "Mother Earth News" a few years ago. They had some good ideas on self-sufficiency. I'm not even sure if the magazine is still published but I enjoyed reading how many people were able to become self-reliant.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
New plants won't solve energy crisis
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=2371.topicBlack Blade: I found this on another site. It is a good synopsis that demonstrates the problems in Kalifornia are far ranging. They are far from being "out of the woods" as far as energy needs are concerned. The lower NG prices today are based on the assumption that there will be warmer weather. The point missed by most everyone is that Kalifornia and many other parts of the country will be sucking up energy this summer. Not to mention that virtually all new power plants are NG-fired. That alone will further stress the NG supply. Next winter could be a disaster in the making.



California's power grid and transmission lines also must be upgraded to meet the state's rising energy needs, according to analyses

By Rick Jurgens TIMES STAFF WRITER

Even with new generation plants under construction and passage of a $10 billion plan to finance electricity purchases, California's "deregulated" energy market still is likely to be visited by power shortages and their familiar companions, rolling blackouts and higher prices.

That's because the state's power grid remains vulnerable to summer days that are too hot, winter nights that are too cold and weather patterns that deliver too little snow and rainfall to fill the reservoirs that supply water to Western hydroelectric plants. And California's network of transmission lines that move electrons from region to region also needs an expensive upgrade.

That's the view of the state's restructured electricity industry that emerges from studies by analysts, including some from the California Energy Commission, a state agency that monitors the energy markets and issues power plant permits. In the brave new world of electricity, problems defy obvious explanations -- too many computers, for example -- and easy solutions.

With the passage of a 1996 law, California set out to dismantle an electric industry legal framework first established in 1912, one in which regulated monopolies generated, transmitted and distributed power. The new system relies on private power generators to make profit-driven decisions about operations and whether to invest in new plants or upgrade existing ones.

Restructuring promised a more efficient, more innovative and less costly electricity system. But the promised benefits came with risks to the nation's most populous state and the world's sixth-largest economy. Already the changed system has threatened the budgets of residential users, raised operating costs for industry and chilled the state's business climate.

"Electric reliability in Western countries is the hallmark of the economy," said Doug Stevenson, a Boston consultant who worked in Ukraine in 1995 and 1996 as that country tried to upgrade its electricity system and end its reliance on the dangerous Chernobyl nuclear plant.

"When you lose reliability of electricity, you lose much more than a few minutes (of work) on your computer."

'Deep trouble' in summer

Things still look grim in the near term. "We are in deep trouble this summer," said Severin Borenstein, director of the Energy Institute at UC-Berkeley. Expected peak demands for electricity will be 50 percent higher than those that have recently pushed the state into daily Stage 3 alerts. In Stage 3 alerts, total generating capacity exceeds expected peak demand by less than 1.5 percent.

The Energy Commission expects there to be enough power for peak demands during the hot summer months, when air conditioners soak up electricity. The commission estimates that about 50,000 megawatts of generating capacity will be available to the California Independent System Operator's grid, while peak demand will be 47,000 megawatts to 50,000 megawatts, depending on the weather.

So far this winter, the weather gods have not been kind to West Coast electricity users dependent on the region's hydroelectric dams to help meet summer peak demands.

"The Columbia River Basin (is) snow-starved," said John Harrison, spokesman for Northwest Power Supply Council in Portland, Ore. "We are worried about having enough power to meet our own needs, let alone have a surplus" of power to send to California, he said.

Reservoirs are near the lowest levels in 60 years, and some of the stored water will be released to support the salmon and steelhead migrations, which begin in mid-April, he said.

Higher electricity prices and dry reservoirs in Oregon and other hydropower-reliant neighboring states that historically have exported power to California won't put them in a generous mood if power runs short, Borenstein said. "We are the ones who are going to eat the shortage," he said.

New generating capacity won't end the crunch right away. "California's energy crisis, absent mild summer and winter weather, likely will not go away until 2003," said Michael Schaal of Energy Venture Analysis in Arlington, Va.

But Karen Griffin, the Energy Commission's electricity analysis manager, said existing hydroelectric capacity should be available to meet peak demand on the summer's hottest days, as long as water is conserved by relying on other generators on non-peak days. Still, power will get to California only if generators and wholesalers sell it here, she said.

Market power

In 2000, rising prices sparked criticism of the new California markets, where wholesalers sell electricity to utilities. Generators and traders were accused of withholding electricity, using "market power" to force up prices.

Many observers saw evidence of such withholding in the loudly ringing cash registers of power suppliers to the ISO grid, where most California power flows. Total wholesale revenue for 2000 rose 276 percent, to $28 billion, from $7.4 billion in 1999 -- even as total consumption rose only 5 percent. Spot market prices reached $4,000 per megawatt/hour, far above the 1999 average price of $33..

An investigation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees wholesale power markets, concluded that rising fuel and environmental costs, scarce supply, defective market rules and "some attempted exercise of market power" were all factors in summer price spikes. A follow-up study issued Friday found no evidence "inherently suggestive of a pattern of withholding" in November and December.

Borenstein said the market needs firm price caps to prevent future price surges. Such caps can be set high enough to avoid discouraging new investment, he said.

But a FERC staff report issued Friday said price caps would interfere with market operations and could be implemented only after "time-consuming and contentious" proceedings.

Supply and demand

Some observers say California's booming high technology economy caused the recent crisis. For example, Matthew White, a Stanford professor and utilities expert, said there was plenty of generating capacity as recently as 1996 and that the current crunch came after "dramatic and largely unanticipated growth in electricity demand."

But Energy Commission analysts say that electricity demand in the past year hasn't exceeded forecasts. "Current 'unexpected growth in energy use' from all sources was actually anticipated and foretold as long ago as 1988," a commission release said in December. Spokeswoman Claudia Chandler said that tracing the current crisis back to high tech users is an "urban myth."

In 2000, electricity consumption grew 4 percent, only about half of the 8 percent rate in 1984, which was the highest in the past 20 years, according to the Energy Commission. Industrial usage was up only 2 percent last year, half of the 4 percent increase in use by residential customers. The 2000 peak demand of 53,300 megawatts was below the 1998 peak of 54,700 megawatts and within the range of forecasts, the commission said.

Still, power plants weren't built to meet the growing demand. Only about 1,000 megawatts of additional capacity came on line in California in the past decade.

No single culprit holds the smoking gun of responsibility for the lack of investment in new generators. The state's sagging economy during the mid-1990s discouraged new investment. More popular scapegoats, especially for power developers and conservatives, include the state's strict environmental standards and a permit process that takes longer than that in other states.

But Borenstein said that since 1996, when the restructuring law passed, a bigger factor has been uncertainty about what rules would govern electricity competition.

At last, new power plants are coming. Including six plants already under construction, nine plants with 6,300 megawatts of new capacity have been approved and are scheduled to be on line by the end of 2003. Permit applications have been filed for another 12 plants with 7,600 megawatts, although that includes some upgrades of existing capacity.

Calpine Corp. of San Jose expects to open two new 500-megawatt plants, including the Los Medanos facility in Pittsburg, as early as the beginning of July, said Bill Highlander, a company spokesman.

The company remains "bullish" on California, where it eventually hopes to own at least 8,000 megawatts of generating capacity, although it would like to see the permit approval process shortened, he said.

All in all, the Energy Commission sees relief coming. "If 11 large power plants are put into service between 2001 and 2003, there would be more generation available than load growth requires over most of the ensuing decade," a February 2000 study concluded.

But commission analysts worry about a boom-and-bust cycle, in which high electricity prices attract surges of investment, then resulting excess capacity drives down prices and discourages any new investment.

"Future generation resource additions will not occur in a smooth, even pattern, but will more likely occur in a cyclical pattern, resulting in periods of excess and lean generation capacity," according to the February 2000 study.

But after years of stagnation, California's electricity developers don't see much near-term danger of overbuilding. All the approved capacity would increase in-state generating capacity by only 13 percent.

New power plants alone won't cure the state's electricity ills. Avoiding a power crisis in a restructured market will require investment in new transmission lines that can be used to send electricity throughout California and the West as demand rises and falls in different regions.

Limited capacity on the Path 15 line connecting Northern and Southern California has contributed to recent shortages here, and a 1996 outage on lines connecting California to the Northwest caused major problems. Public Utility Commission President Loretta Lynch estimated that new transmission lines will cost at least $1 billion in California, and she said it isn't clear where that money will come from.

Lower reserve margins

One likely side effect of restructuring is a long-term loss of operating reserves -- generating capacity that can be fired up when there are unexpected increases in demand or reductions in supply.

"Reserves will be lower in a competitive market as compared to a regulated market because of economic pressure to use resources more efficiently," the February 2000 Energy Commission study warned.

Reserves protect the power grid against damage that can occur almost instantly if total electricity load exceeds the power generated. A gradual increase in load beyond capacity causes a brownout that damages electric motors, such as refrigerators, and electronic equipment, such as computers, White said. A sudden loss of generation triggers circuit breakers throughout the grid, causing widespread blackouts that are costly and time-consuming to restore.

Chandler, the Energy Commission spokeswoman, noted that the cost of plants to provide reserves has historically been borne by ratepayers.

"With all the privatization of the generators, what entity will absorb the cost of this insurance policy?" she asked. As a regulated monopoly, the reserve margin -- the proportion of extra generating capacity available over peak demand -- in the California grid typically ranged from 15 to 20 percent, according to the Energy Commission. But commission analysts project that private investors will aim for a reserve margin of 7 percent.

Borenstein said the physical grid can be protected with reserve margins that low, but Schaal said a margin of as much as 18 to 20 percent might be needed to prevent price gouging.

"Declining reserve margins have opened the door, at least to some degree, to manipulation of the power markets," he said.

Restructuring payoff

Restructuring advocates promised a more efficient electricity system with lower costs. Maybe those promises will be kept, but not without some pain.

"Regulated investor-owned utilities in the United States have done a reasonable job of efficiently generating power, given their portfolio of generating assets," said Borenstein and James Bushnell, another UC-Berkeley professor, in a 2000 paper. "The prospects for short-run efficiency gains on the supply side of this industry are quite modest."

But the pre-restructuring utility rates reflected the costs of running expensive nuclear and alternate-fuel generating facilities built by utilities with the approval of state regulators. "What is 'broke' in this industry is the process that produced those poor investment decisions," said Borenstein and Bushnell.

And once the financial mess is cleared up and a functioning market system is put in place, a restructured electricity system could be made reliable, said Griffin of the Energy Commission: "Physically, it's a solvable problem."

Topaz
Pandagold
Hi Panda,
OS refers to the Operating System (Win98 in your case)

On the poverty issue, "poverty" really needs a tighter definition, yes?
One can't compare a "poor" (say) Chinaman with a poor American as there are different forces at work in each case. The "real" difference is more a question of degree of contentment with their "lot".
The poor American is indeed the poorer as he watches the world pass him by at first hand, while the financially poorer China (oblivious to a large extent of his plight) goes about life in ignorant bliss.

One more thing - Why is it that, in the 100 odd years since "Britannia ruled the Waves", Brits have not outgrown their Superiority Complex?
Not meant personally ol' bean.... and DO keep posting.
Peter Asher
link doesn't work on this directly



The superstate is history, says sceptic at EU's heart

The scholar making waves in Brussels talks to
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

TEN years ago, Frits Bolkestein was the pin-up boy of
Holland's Euro-sceptic movement, reviled by the Left for
his Thatcherite views.

Now this polyglot Greek scholar, mathematician and oil
man holds one of the most powerful jobs in Brussels -
single market commissioner. And he is starting to send
shockwaves through the system. Not content to press for the
privatisation of everything from post offices to pensions,
he is calling this week for an end to the idea of tax
harmonisation in the European Union.

He says the EU should stop meddling in matters best left to
the nation states, such as social affairs, culture and
education, if it wants to salvage its credibility and avoid a
populist backlash. For good measure, he adds that French
pre-eminence in Brussels is finished.

In an interview with The Telegraph, he said Britain's
Euro-sceptics were out of date in thinking that the EU
system was rigged against the Anglo-Saxons, or that it was
moving towards a federal superstate. However, he
acknowledged that there was still "a danger of a creeping
process, of more and more things becoming the subject of
legislation in Brussels".

He said: "Federalism is something we should forget about,
because it is not going to happen. When we enlarge in
Eastern Europe, we will absorb the union states which
have vivid and sad recollections of supra-national rule
from Moscow. They have regained their sovereignty and
their independence.

"The thought that they would voluntarily subsume their
national identities in a European federation is an illusion.
The Poles are not going to like that. Nor the Czechs." Mr
Bolkestein said the Franco-German axis was breaking
down as Berlin found its own voice and embraced,
unsteadily, perhaps, the free market, pulling away from a
western neighbour still in thrall to the outdated concepts of
state control.

What was emerging instead was a radically different
Europe that resembled the "concert of powers" of the 19th
century where Britain could play its old role of power
broker. He said: "We're facing a period of shifting
alliances, and that enables Britain to lend its support to
whichever party would serve British interests best."

But he cautioned that this should not be confused with a
return to Splendid Isolation, where Britain intervened only
to prevent the emergence of any single, dominating power
on the Continent. Mr Bolkestein said that role was now
played by the United States.

While Mr Bolkestein admits that the European Central
Bank, as well as the European Court of Justice, has a
"federal" character, he says that it does not follow
automatically that the euro will force further moves
towards federal integration.

He argues that Economic and Monetary Union can be made
to function along the lines of the gold standard between
1870 and 1914 when the major powers were locked
together successfully in a single currency system without
having to surrender political control.

Mr Bolkestein became embroiled in European politics in
1991, as leader of the Dutch Liberal Party, when Brussels
tried to ban tobacco advertising. "Tobacco was a legal
product, and the union was subsidising Greek tobacco
farmers," he said. "I started to ask myself why on earth was
the union trying to ban advertising. I felt this was a matter
for the member states."

He said that in the old days the European "system" was one
of ever-closer union, and the acquisition of ever-greater
powers, by a process of stealth. "We decide on something,
leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no
one kicks up a fuss, we continue step by step until there is
no more turning back."

That game must be ended, said Mr Bolkestein. If it is not
stopped, the EU will lose its legitimacy and "implode" the
next time it runs into a crisis.





Black Blade
Price of Propane Making It Harder to Keep Warm

By PETER T. KILBORN
Rodney White for The New York Times



INDIANOLA, Iowa, Feb. 2 � White is the color of cold in Iowa this winter, with perennially white skies folding into silent white pastures and fields of corn stubble. Behind white clapboard farmhouses, only the white tanks, shaped like snub-nosed submarines, offer protection from a winter that began as the coldest recorded around here and has almost two months to go. The tanks contain a liquefied gas called propane, the sole source of heat for 149,000 rural homes in Iowa, or 14 percent of all homes in the state, and for 8 million others across the upper Midwest and the Carolinas. Normally a manageable expense, accounting for up to 4 or 5 percent of a family's income, the price of propane has jumped to its highest levels, doubling or tripling in one year in many places. For many households, especially those on low and fixed incomes, filling the tank for a month can cost more than the rent or the mortgage payment. "It ticks you off when you get shafted like that, and you can't do anything about it," said Norman Heck, 69, who after 10 years has all but completed building his cedar- sided retirement dream house outside Indianola, 25 miles south of Des Moines. Spotless, meticulously decorated, the house has three bedrooms, a pantry and a soaring cathedral ceiling, with a wall of glass overlooking the family's 40 hilly acres of land. "It used to cost $400 to heat this place, all winter," Mr. Heck said. "Now we're looking at $1,700." Mr. Heck had some good jobs over the years, most of them in construction. But after rearing seven children, he and his wife, Janet, 67, live on a fixed income, most of which is their Social Security benefit. Without a penny of debt, they thought they could get along. Because of the cost of propane, the Hecks have been able to turn for help to a federal energy assistance program for the poor that picked up $360 of their January bill. But they will need another delivery in two or three weeks and are ineligible for more aid, so they are bailing out. "They've priced us right out of here," Mr. Heck said. "We're going to sell this house and build a smaller one. It was great while it lasted."

In the nation's cities and suburbs, propane is an incidental fuel for blowtorches, for cooking on outdoor grills or for running the few vehicles that are propane-powered. But in the country, propane is prized as historically cheap, clean and versatile. A liquid that vaporizes at temperatures as low as 44 degrees below zero, propane heats homes and barns, cooks, dries crops and runs clothes dryers, water heaters, irrigation pumps and some tractors. And the rare spurts in price take a disproportionate toll on people with modest incomes. In Iowa, as in most states, no one requires a propane company to deliver to a customer who cannot pay. The propane companies say it is uneconomical to deliver fewer than 200 or 300 gallons, so a customer who can pay for only 100 is out of luck.

In Thursday morning's ear-burning cold, yet another blizzard was sweeping snow over the ice-packed gravel road to the weathered and white century-old home of Michaela Prexl, 29, in Carlisle, 12 miles southeast of Des Moines. Ms. Prexl lives there with her 4-year-old son, 2-year- old niece, mother and three dogs. Ms. Prexl cannot work. Three years ago, she said, "I crushed my legs in a car wreck." She collects about $8,000 a year in disability benefits, food stamps and cash assistance. She does not have good credit or much money in the bank, so she cannot charge her gas purchases or sign a contract in the summer for her winter deliveries, locking in lower prices. Before the March thaw, she is likely to have spent around $1,100, or nearly 14 percent of her income, to keep replenishing the 1,000-gallon tank outside the kitchen window. On the kitchen table, she spreads out three years of receipts from Warren County Oil in Indianola, her supplier. She bought about 750 gallons in the winter of 1997-98, for which she paid an average of 60 cents a gallon, or $450. In October 1998, detecting a bargain with the price down to 50 cents, she bought 700 gallons for $350. That was enough to carry her through the ensuing mild winter. But by December 2000, the price had almost doubled, to 98 cents. She paid $264.60 for 270 gallons. "On Jan. 10, I was empty again," she said. "I had to put 350 in there." By now the price was $1.24, so she paid $434. This week, Warren County Oil's price had slipped a bit, to $1.16. But with February barely begun, she is likely to need another 500 gallons. Like the Hecks in Indianola, Ms. Prexl is getting some help � a grant of about $480 � through the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.

Jerry McKim, chief of the bureau that manages the program in Iowa, said 206,000 households were eligible for aid because their incomes fall below $25,575 for a family of four, or 150 percent of the federal poverty line. Of those households, he estimated that 75,000 will have applied by March, 13,000 more than last year, and that 15 percent of those that apply burn propane. "I have taken hundreds of calls," Mr. McKim said. "I get grown men who all say the same thing: `Never in my life did I think I couldn't make it on my own.' Elderly ladies call. Their voice cracks. They've got a monthly income of $500 and a bill for $800. They think their only alternative is to sell their homes. That's what's going on. We're not talking anecdotes here." Because of the season's unusual cold, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration reported this week that nearly 19 million gallons of propane, almost a third of the entire national supply on hand in October, were burned in December, the most ever burned in one month. But there are other reasons, too, for the jump in prices. A byproduct of oil and natural gas processing, propane has been caught up in the supply-and-demand upheaval in the nation's sources of energy. High natural gas prices leave producers with little incentive to extract propane from their gas, said Daniel N. Myers, executive vice president of the National Propane Gas Association. And rather than pay high natural gas prices for fuel for their own processing, oil refineries switched to using the propane that they produce and normally sell, thus diminishing the supply. "And they're still doing that," Mr. Myers said. Hundreds of miles down the line from the refineries and processing plants is Indianola. Routinely, LaVerta Foust, Mr. McKim's area supervisor, calls propane dealers, shopping for prices for her clients. The 16 dealers she called on Monday quoted prices ranging from $1.10 to $1.49 a gallon.

Warren County Oil has one of the lower prices, at $1.16. The company is a threadbare-looking business, occupying a single-story yellow brick building the size of a gas station in the center of Indianola. Joe Bell, the general manager, says he tries to accommodate customers who have trouble paying so that he can deal with a squeeze of his own. When Mr. Bell picks up propane at his supplier's depot in Des Moines, he is given 10 days to pay. "Most of our customers expect 30 days to pay," he said.

Among Warren County Oil's customers is Joyce Mastin, who recently moved to Indianola. Her husband, David Mastin, works as a store manager at a mall in Des Moines while she stays home with their four children.With little credit in town as yet, the Mastins cannot open a charge account with the company. So to pay the $243.60 charge for Monday's delivery, Ms. Mastin said, "I had to postdate a check, to Feb. 9. They suggested that."

Black Blade: The Hecks, Ms. Prexl, and the Mastins can take comfort in the fact that energy costs are not in the core rate of the CPI. They are constantly told by the talking heads that inflation is benign. Why heck, Larry Kudlow says that because the price of gold is low, there's no inflation. The drivel that is spewed out by Wall Street is that there is no inflation and so everyone should buy stocks now. In other words, "Come on in! The water's fine." Yeah, just watch out for those inflation sharks - they got a nasty bite!


Black Blade
Terminator Comes to Sacramento?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010205/d2.htmlA snippit from the article at the URL


SCHWARZENEGGER MAY ACT

Davis has faced widespread criticism during the crisis for failing to act decisively and on Monday a man with a reputation for action -- actor Arnold Schwarzenegger -- said he may follow in the footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan who left acting and was elected Governor of California in 1966.

``It comes down to leadership. You have to take risks and be able to just say, 'I've taken my best shot.' And that is what is lacking,'' Schwarzenegger told the Los Angeles Times.

Schwarzenegger, who is wealthy enough to be able to finance his own campaign, said he have movie obligation through 2004 ''but I would sacrifice, you know, $20 million a picture and all those things and forget about that to step in.''

Black Blade
Natural gas gripes largely misdirected
http://www.starnews.com/news/articles/gas0205.html
Effects of federal policies, not utilities, boost prices.
By Bill Koenig
Indianapolis Star
February 5, 2001

During the past two months, natural gas customers have reeled as they received monthly bills that had doubled or tripled over the previous year. They called their gas utilities frantically wanting to know why. They telephoned state regulators, complaining about what they called the greed of utilities. As it turned out, consumers were contacting two of the groups with the least say over natural gas prices. Even House Republicans, who last week proposed that Indiana stop collecting sales tax on residential natural gas bills for six months, acknowledged the state has few options to control soaring costs. The reasons for gas price hikes took place "beyond the borders of our state," said House Minority Leader Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

Indeed, policies to promote clean air and preserve the landscape are at least part of the reason consumers now are feeling the pinch of higher natural gas costs. What's happening is a textbook example of how public policies can have far-reaching consequences years after being put into effect. During the past eight years, federal regulators urged industrial users to switch from dirtier fuels like coal to cleaner ones like natural gas, increasing demand for the fuel from producers of electricity and other industrial users. Historically, natural gas primarily had been used to heat homes. Now, much of the new demand comes from business. At the same time, exploration of new natural gas fields in places like the Rocky Mountains and off the East and West coasts have been off limits for environmental reasons -- just as production from established fields is declining. That has meant fewer supplies of natural gas flowing into the market. Environmentalists say there are good reasons for those policies, mainly that people breathing cleaner air get fewer lung diseases. "In the long run, switching away from coal-fired technology to gas is going to save lives," said Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global energy project.

The answer is to extend existing supplies of gas through conservation. "There's a lot of gas around," he said. "It's very easy to say -- it's unarguable to say -- if we used less, our supplies would go farther." Right now, though, consumers are being asked to choose between cleaner air or lower gas bills. "That's not much of a choice," said Mary Rhoades of Franklin, an Indiana Gas Co. customer. "Everybody wants to breathe clean air. I don't know anything about this. I'm just a widow woman trying to get by paying the least that I can." Customers who've seen skyrocketing bills aren't in the mood to cut their gas utilities any slack. "I'd like to have cleaner air but I'd like lower gas bills," said Delores Drake of Indianapolis, whose bills for her 83-year-old house went from $88 a month to more than $220. "The people who own the gas company have a lot of money. They're getting ridiculous." She's a customer of the municipally owned Citizens Gas & Coke Utility.

Others are more philosophical. "Over the long term, I have to go with clean air," said Frances Stone of Indianapolis, a Citizens customer. "I think God gave us the earth and we do need to protect it." But that doesn't mean she will enjoy paying her $169.97 January bill, which is up from $83.67 a year earlier. "It does seem like a horrendous hike. That's a pretty big shock." As a result of the rising prices, one major local institution has taken a step back on the environmental front. Indiana University, which began switching some of its coal-fired boilers to natural gas in 1989, changed back to coal this year when natural gas prices went so high. For decades, a massive coal pile was a landmark on the north side of the Bloomington campus. The coal pile disappeared when the school made the partial change to natural gas because it burns cleaner, said Gary Kent, an assistant vice president at the university. When natural gas prices slumped dramatically three years ago, the school converted four of its six boilers so they could burn gas or coal and, as a result, they used more natural gas, Kent explained. But when prices shot up last year, "you were almost to the point of burning dollar bills," he added. And so the school went back to using coal exclusively, savings about $700,000 this winter.

In Downtown Indianapolis, government agencies, hospitals and businesses have been spared the brunt of the gas hikes because of a century-old steam heat system that runs beneath the city. The heat for these buildings is supplied by steam, keeping temperatures and utility bills relatively steady through the winter. But still, Indianapolis does have some buildings heated by natural gas and, as a result, has seen its bill increase to $63,814 for the period from early December through early January, compared to $31,452 last year. For a number of years, however, natural gas was relatively inexpensive for governments, businesses and individuals. Just three years ago, the price of gas dipped below $2-per-million-BTU, causing many independent producers to shut down their operations. (One million British Thermal Units is a standard measurement of natural gas; one BTU is the amount of energy required to heat one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit.) As a result, supplies were down just as demand climbed and colder-than-normal weather struck in late 2000. That's when the price on the short-term gas market shot up as high as $10-per-million-BTU last month. Prices have moderated since, but they're expected to remain around $5-per-million BTU throughout this year.

Production is now increasing again, but too late to make a difference this winter. That's left consumers screaming about their bills and utilities with a public relations headache. State law prohibits them from earning profits on the cost of gas itself. The higher rates they've charged pays their cost of gas but nothing else. "It's frustrating because the local company is the entity the consumer knows," said Greg Schenkel, president of the Indiana Gas Association. "They don't know the intricacies of the gas business. They just look at who they're paying." And state regulators are trying to nibble at the edges, trying to find some small relief for consumers. The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission ordered a small cut in rates for Indiana Gas Co. customers, saying the utility hadn't bought gas in the most efficient way. But the expected effect on rates, which will occur in March, April and May bills, will be small. "The commission acknowledges its lack of control over the market price of gas," said Michael Leppert, the commission's executive director. "Everyone looks for comprehensive answers, and we don't have any." Right now, House Republicans are pressing for a tax break for gas customers by having the state drop the 5 percent sales tax for six months, retroactive to last October. Under their plan, a customer whose gas bills average $200 a month would get a $60 credit in April. They argue that the state has gotten a windfall from the higher gas prices -- an estimated $50 million and $75 million in extra state sales tax revenue. But officials like Rep. B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, chairman of the budget-writing House Ways and Means Committee, say that's only half the story because the state also is paying higher natural gas costs. While the Statehouse and two main state office buildings Downtown are steam-heated, there are various state facilities that are heated by gas. Bauer said preliminary estimates indicate the state is paying around $8 million more for natural gas this winter and that state universities are paying $8 million to $12 million.


Black Blade: Clean air is definitely desirable. Doesn't do much good if you freeze to death though. Again, the higher costs will be passed on to the consumer one way or another. The myth of "benign inflation" just won't hold water as this story continues to unfold across the US. It will drag on the economy, yet the talking heads will continue to spin the story that "all is well" or "it will get much better." They also continue to point to a recovery in the market. It doesn't really look that healthy though. There will be some funds flowing into the market in order to beat the April 15th deadline to take advantage of IRA contributions for the year 2000. However, the funds are concentrated in a few issues that drive up the DOW (an index with only 30 stocks and 9 of which are cyclicals). There is a perception of safety in the big name stocks and in a few "defensive" sectors. It could just all come apart in the next couple of months. Many of these talking heads recently said that no one should talk about a recession! Let's see, bury our collective heads in the sand and it just might go away? Some strategy � See on evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. All I can say is "Good Luck!"

Topaz
Peter Asher (02/06/01; 00:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47530)
Hi Peter,
That article really puts it all on the table doesn't it?
Retention of sovereignty - quazi Gold standard - Yes, it's all coming together.
ORO
Sierra Madre - character norms and economics
Thanks IronHead and others for the Japanese economy and culture discussion.

I want to make just one observation regarding Japan's and Japanese' seemingly odd behavior. When one looks at Japanese make work programs, now running at over 20% of GDP, and having accumulated to 126% of GDP in government debt (ours is now 55%, having reached near 100% before), we see the result in their sliding real trade surplus, their still extremely high prices, and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.

In short, Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters are the source of the high prices and the declining excess in trade. The government has priced labor out of exporter's employ by hiring people for make work projects, while maintaining trade conditions favoring exports and resisting imports. As a response to the high prices, people in Japan add to their savings rates, though consummate savers by tradition and because of their rather high age, it is because they are priced out of the market that they are saving so much more today than before.

Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily. Furthermore, much of the paper in these accounts is still yielding very high rates relative to new paper. It was only last year that these accounts started to mature, and people now face the decision of what to do with the old money. The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust). Furthermore, the characteristic Japanese choice in response to low interest rates is to take the cash and stuff it in the mattress. At least one can be sure that the mattress won't go under, even if it may go up in smoke.

For the new hire in Japan, a late age marriage (their folks married early) and the baby bust make income for the talented very good. For the new blue collar and low level office worker, things are not so hot because where his predecessor's income improved from the economies of scale achieved with a growing adult population and growing export markets up to the 80s, he faces overstaffed production floors, offices, and few prospects of improvement. The low management people are old and ageing, and have lost track of the markets, which has changed under them. Maintaining seniority rules prevents companies from replacing these people with younger ones who are more attune to the times.

Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock. The downside has been the retention of non-viable businesses that would have to close anyway, consuming capital and keeping workers occupied in uneconomical jobs and preventing them from changing skills.

The other success, a very temporary one to be sure, has been the maintenance of low price inflation. Japan has increased money supply and debt asset supply (government debt) without causing higher prices because they maintained their export surplus and not allowed much dishoarding of dollar assets. The result has been a rather quiet price picture as Yen assets finance dollar and foreign assets (which allow us to buy Japan's exports) rather than go into the economy directly. The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid while make work programs are shut down, i.e. higher taxes.

Low income from investments is also pushing the huge Japanese baby boom generation to save more because they are expecting not to have sufficient income coming out of their investment portfolio at current rates, and they have not considered anything but paper as investments since prices have yet to be cause for worry.

Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days, when a larger portion of Japanese labor will be occupied taking care of the elderly and will not be able to work in production. The "new people" will be less loyal to Japanese products, and tend to buy more independently, requiring less salesmanship. This will change retailing in Japan and allow greater competition for consumer business as well as more competition for supply contracts. Most of all, it will put price higher on the agenda for the Japanese consumer.

Topaz
Ah! Panda.......those were the days my friend...we thought they'd never end
http://www.slonet.org/~ied/frthzyyz.html During the time of classical colonial imperialism, human rights and democracy were not yet the norm. The early ruling of colonies under trading companies (East India Company, Africa Company, Hudson Bay Company, etc.) was quite straightforward: Demonize those targeted for dispossession of their land and resources (or even their life); defeat those weak, primitive, and typically gentle cultures; push those too weak to defend themselves off their land or off the face of the earth (North America, some of Latin America, Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii); and establish colonial governments to dictate policy over more culturally advanced and denser populations (India, China, Egypt, Algeria, the Middle East). The rest of the colonial world (most of Africa, much of Latin America) simply involved too large a territory and too many people, and there was not enough time, for European settlers to dispossess them of their land.
An excellent site that ties in with your interests Sir.

Link via Sharefin@Kitco Tks.

working-kirk
You thought people were screaming about high oil prices?
Black Blade, I enjoy your post on energy but if you thought people were screaming about high oil prices, you haven't SEEN nothing!

Why do I say this?

Because, many utilities bill ahead. They can determine your useage but not the price of fuel, oil, whatever by the time you receive the bill. So they price the fuel what is cost in November. Novemeber was using Autumn's prices for oil. Naturally Useage and costs increased for Winter. So now it is Februrary. Your bill will show the fuel cost for December. There was a major price hikes in December. However you are now just being billed for it. Now the Autumn season was high, but now many people are going to be
billed for the Winter. I just read today a major snowstorm hit the Northeast. Like I predicted a week or so, there will be one or two last major storm of the season. Do you
know what else I predicted? The slowdown in shipments will be hitting us in Feb.

So you have price hikes over price hikes.
You have major storm
You will have some oil and fuel shortages

My challage to you black blade is to give us your best guess as to what will happen next since of all the people in this forum you seem to be the most knowledgable about oil
Pandagold
Topaz

I thank you for the link, but it will not let me get beyond what appears the 'home' page. I tried all the clicks, but the little world (icon)just turns and turns.

I was particularly interested to hear what they had to say about the Kennedy assassination

Did you miss my other posting to you last night in which I thanked you for the help with my PC but asked to explain what means 'OS'?
Black Blade
RE: working-kirk
If I knew what would happen in the future I'd be a very wealthy individual. I wish I knew. The pundits can spin a good yarn and influence the markets. Oil is a tough one since there isn't necessarily a shortage in the traditional sense. There is a growing shortage of "cheap oil" and "cheap energy." OPEC is a wild card. Anything can happen. If Ariel Sharon becomes PM of Israel for example, as seems likely, the Arab members of OPEC could get wound up especially if Sharon were to take a very hard stance toward the Palestinians. That could rile the Arab world. Then again, they could decide that they aren't getting fair value for their finite resources and cut production even further. It's a tough call. Another variable would be the depreciation of the US Dollar. Since oil is priced in US Dollars, that could also create a number of problems. What if more OPEC members follow Iraq's lead and demand payment in Euros? Of course with summer approaching, there could be higher usage of oil distillates (i.e. gas and diesel) during the so-called "driving season." Last summer gasoline and diesel prices were higher. There were demonstrations by truckers in Europe as well as in the US. Could there be a repeat? Possibly. Over time oil and oil distillates will rise in price. It is inevitable. You could read my previous post: "The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" for a more detailed explanation of why I believe that oil prices are destined to rise. The Bull Market economy that we have enjoyed over the last few years has been fueled by cheap oil and cheap energy. Now prices are much higher and there are threats to reliable sources of energy as we have seen in California. These threats have spread out into other regions and are likely to take a toll on the economy. Someone must pay the cost. That someone will be the consumer. The question is will it be next year, the year after, etc. The "Super Giants" (very large world class oil fields) have been discovered because they are so large they were easy to find and produce oil. Now we must find "Giants" (large oil fields) if we can and develop processing more costly low quality oil and non-conventional oil (tar sands, high sulfur oil, heavy crudes, etc.). We have cruised along on borrowed time and though we knew that the day of reckoning was approaching, we still somehow were caught flat-footed and unprepared. We had 30 years to prepare for some degree of self reliance and we utterly failed. As far as NG is concerned, we could have a real mess on our hands. In California, summer is when energy usage doubles. There is very little snow pack in the Sierra's and there is not much snow pack in the northwest as well. Hydroelectric power is in doubt and NG power will therefore be at its limits. If anything, we will be headed for "interesting times."
Pandagold
Covering their butt

The following is an excerpt from an article by Andrew Sparrow in the Telegraph:-

"......GORDON BROWN made a profit from selling some of the UK's gold reserves and investing in the ailing euro currency, MPs were told yesterday.
A senior Treasury official said that, even though the euro had fallen in value, the Government had not lost out because investments in euros also paid interest, unlike gold. Gus O'Donnell, head of macro-economic policy and international finance at the Treasury, also insisted the Chancellor's policy of selling gold was not related to the Government's desire to join the euro.............

Elections are due anytime now in the UK. Blair's government
is coming under heavy fire. Watch for them covering their butt - especially trying to prove that selling our gold was a good move.

One of the reasons that I think POG will be capped for a while is that it would look very bad if the price shot up much beyond what we sold it at.

Talking about elections -Israel votes today. There is a hot bed of trouble brewing if ever there was one. And gold loves trouble (or did)












Black Blade
Natural Gas Supply Problems Ahead?
Source: Steven King's Black Gold and PetroDispatchBlack Blade: working-kirk asks what would be a best guess on what will happen next on oil and presumably NG. This article from Black Gold and PetroDispatch is quite interesting and demonstrates the potential difficulties that lie ahead.

Florida vs. Alaska

Much is being made of the need for natural gas from the Alaskan North Slope to satisfy the demand in the lower 48, including Florida. But this gas is maybe eight years away at the best, while Florida has reserves just offshore that could be online in less than half that time. The difference is Alaskan gas is only off limits in the minds of a few die-hard environmentalists (everyone else, Eskimos, Alaskan citizens, and the caribou all want development), while in Florida has a large population of voters with the "not in my backyard" mindset. Several studies, including a National Petroleum Council report, indicate that U.S. gas demand will grow to 29 Tcf in 2010 from the current 22 Tcf.

The only way this situation could be considered economically fair to the American public, who will have to pay for the pipeline from Alaska, is to require the Florida citizens to pay a extra tax equal to the difference between importing the extra gas from Alaska and the cost of the gas Florida doesn't allow to be developed. Considering the shortage, how can any group justify a ban on production just because they don't want to see a rig in the sunset? The MMS has the nation's best interest in sight. They announced the release of a draft Environmental Impact Statement on the proposed Eastern GOM Oil and Gas Lease Sale 181. This is the only Eastern GOM sale scheduled in the current 5-Year Leasing Plan, which ends in 2002, and the first proposed sale in the Eastern GOM since 1988. Lease Sale 181 is scheduled December 2001. The 181-lease area includes 120 blocks in a narrow strip beginning 15 mi. offshore Alabama and Florida and another 913 blocks in deeper water, which are nearer to Louisiana than to Florida.

The current offshore-Florida drilling moratorium is based on conflicts with the state's coastal management plan. The proposed sale area does not include any blocks within 100 mi. offshore Florida. At that offshore distance, it will be interesting to see if the state has any objections. MMS estimates that resources developed from the entire lease area could contain up to 370 million bbl of oil and 3.2 Tcf. In addition, the agency announced several initiatives proposed for Lease Sale 178 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, scheduled for March 28, 2001. Two of these initiatives are designed to increase gas production during the years 2004 - 2006. It is hoped that these initiatives add gas production in the range of 1/2 to 1 Tcf per year in the 2004 to 2006 period. The initiatives are:

1) An incentive to drill for deep gas deposits located in the shallow-water Gulf is provided by royalty suspension for the first 20 Bcf production from a well drilled below 15,000 ft sea level
2) As an incentive to drill for subsalt gas plays, MMS proposes that lessees obtain a two-year extension of the five-year primary lease term when an operator has drilled its first subsalt well and needs additional time to image the subsurface data to determine the next drilling target. This will avoid premature lease expiration and the consequent delay in exploration.
3) As an incentive to keep exploring and developing hydrocarbon deposits in the ultra-deepwater areas to replace expiring provisions of the 1995 Deepwater Royalty Relief Act, a royalty suspension volume of 9 million boe is proposed for water depths between 800 m and 1,599 m, and a royalty suspension volume of the first 12 million boe in water depths greater than 1,599 m.

A further initiative provides an opportunity to apply for additional "discretionary" royalty relief, following new proposed rulemaking, if certain conditions are satisfied.

As natural gas demand continues to grow and the nation struggles to reduce its dependence on imported oil, more land rigs will be needed to replace those lost through attrition, as well as to double the number of wells that must be drilled to meet a 30-Tcf natural gas market. At the end of 2000, the total U.S. onshore rig count is close to 1,000. For the first time since 1982, land rig refurbishment and manufacturing activities have recommenced. The challenge of meeting rising rig demand must be met by a much smaller drilling industry. Today, they are just over 200 companies owning land rigs, compared to nearly 700 in 1987.

In Canada, oil/gas drillers launched a national campaign to fill 3,000 jobs immediately on rigs in Western Canada. The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors' 90 members are "severely short of people". For the first time in years, several of the larger contractors are starting to look at the cost of new rigs. The question being asked is "At what point will increased work rates make it feasible to invest in new rigs?" Remember that the current dayrates have only been in place for a few months. Although current rates indicate a breakeven point for new rigs, there is still a question of how long this boom will last. The risk involved in buying a new rig is more than the average contractor may want to take.

Another school of thought points out that dayrates are just now in line with what they should have been for the past five years as a direct result of added drilling and service work. It is very possible that the rig markets are just now being balanced between supply and demand.

Black Blade
Natural Gas Supply Problems Ahead?
Source: Steven King's Black Gold and PetroDispatchBlack Blade: working-kirk asks what would be a best guess on what will happen next on oil and presumably NG. This article from Black Gold and PetroDispatch is quite interesting and demonstrates the potential difficulties that lie ahead.

Florida vs. Alaska

Much is being made of the need for natural gas from the Alaskan North Slope to satisfy the demand in the lower 48, including Florida. But this gas is maybe eight years away at the best, while Florida has reserves just offshore that could be online in less than half that time. The difference is Alaskan gas is only off limits in the minds of a few die-hard environmentalists (everyone else, Eskimos, Alaskan citizens, and the caribou all want development), while in Florida has a large population of voters with the "not in my backyard" mindset. Several studies, including a National Petroleum Council report, indicate that U.S. gas demand will grow to 29 Tcf in 2010 from the current 22 Tcf.

The only way this situation could be considered economically fair to the American public, who will have to pay for the pipeline from Alaska, is to require the Florida citizens to pay a extra tax equal to the difference between importing the extra gas from Alaska and the cost of the gas Florida doesn't allow to be developed. Considering the shortage, how can any group justify a ban on production just because they don't want to see a rig in the sunset? The MMS has the nation's best interest in sight. They announced the release of a draft Environmental Impact Statement on the proposed Eastern GOM Oil and Gas Lease Sale 181. This is the only Eastern GOM sale scheduled in the current 5-Year Leasing Plan, which ends in 2002, and the first proposed sale in the Eastern GOM since 1988. Lease Sale 181 is scheduled December 2001. The 181-lease area includes 120 blocks in a narrow strip beginning 15 mi. offshore Alabama and Florida and another 913 blocks in deeper water, which are nearer to Louisiana than to Florida.

The current offshore-Florida drilling moratorium is based on conflicts with the state's coastal management plan. The proposed sale area does not include any blocks within 100 mi. offshore Florida. At that offshore distance, it will be interesting to see if the state has any objections. MMS estimates that resources developed from the entire lease area could contain up to 370 million bbl of oil and 3.2 Tcf. In addition, the agency announced several initiatives proposed for Lease Sale 178 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, scheduled for March 28, 2001. Two of these initiatives are designed to increase gas production during the years 2004 - 2006. It is hoped that these initiatives add gas production in the range of 1/2 to 1 Tcf per year in the 2004 to 2006 period. The initiatives are:

1) An incentive to drill for deep gas deposits located in the shallow-water Gulf is provided by royalty suspension for the first 20 Bcf production from a well drilled below 15,000 ft sea level
2) As an incentive to drill for subsalt gas plays, MMS proposes that lessees obtain a two-year extension of the five-year primary lease term when an operator has drilled its first subsalt well and needs additional time to image the subsurface data to determine the next drilling target. This will avoid premature lease expiration and the consequent delay in exploration.
3) As an incentive to keep exploring and developing hydrocarbon deposits in the ultra-deepwater areas to replace expiring provisions of the 1995 Deepwater Royalty Relief Act, a royalty suspension volume of 9 million boe is proposed for water depths between 800 m and 1,599 m, and a royalty suspension volume of the first 12 million boe in water depths greater than 1,599 m.

A further initiative provides an opportunity to apply for additional "discretionary" royalty relief, following new proposed rulemaking, if certain conditions are satisfied.

As natural gas demand continues to grow and the nation struggles to reduce its dependence on imported oil, more land rigs will be needed to replace those lost through attrition, as well as to double the number of wells that must be drilled to meet a 30-Tcf natural gas market. At the end of 2000, the total U.S. onshore rig count is close to 1,000. For the first time since 1982, land rig refurbishment and manufacturing activities have recommenced. The challenge of meeting rising rig demand must be met by a much smaller drilling industry. Today, they are just over 200 companies owning land rigs, compared to nearly 700 in 1987.

In Canada, oil/gas drillers launched a national campaign to fill 3,000 jobs immediately on rigs in Western Canada. The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors' 90 members are "severely short of people". For the first time in years, several of the larger contractors are starting to look at the cost of new rigs. The question being asked is "At what point will increased work rates make it feasible to invest in new rigs?" Remember that the current dayrates have only been in place for a few months. Although current rates indicate a breakeven point for new rigs, there is still a question of how long this boom will last. The risk involved in buying a new rig is more than the average contractor may want to take.

Another school of thought points out that dayrates are just now in line with what they should have been for the past five years as a direct result of added drilling and service work. It is very possible that the rig markets are just now being balanced between supply and demand.

Leigh
Gandalf the White
Yes, yes, the package did arrive safely!! I'm so sorry for not acknowledging it sooner. Putting duck tape all over the envelope was brilliant! You couldn't have found anything stronger than that. I love my vial of quartz and gold flakes. It is so cool to have! My daughter kept wanting to open and eat them, and I finally had to move the vial to a safer place.

You are an extremely thoughtful wizard who (unlike many people) can think with BOTH sides of his brain! How fitting that you would choose the perfect gift to honor the Left-Brained Hall of Fun!
RossL
California Seizes Power Contracts
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010205/bs/utilities_california_dc_14.htmlLOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Gov. Gray Davis on Monday seized more long-term power contracts as the state prepared for the lifting later this week of a federal order which has helped to keep electricity flowing to the 24 million customers of its two near bankrupt utilities.

One of those utilities, Southern California Edison (SCE), on Monday reported that it would be penniless if it had been paying its bills.

RossL
Calif. Seizes Assets of Utilities
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010206/ts/power_woes.htmlSACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - Vowing to solve California's energy crisis without outside help, Gov. Gray Davis used emergency powers to seize the assets of a second debt-ridden utility ahead of circling creditors.

The government on Monday claimed ownership of $150 million worth of power-buying agreements from Pacific Gas and Electric Co. before they could be sold by the financially troubled utility's creditors. Davis did the same thing Friday with $300 million worth of Southern California Edison contracts.

Black Blade
Silver weak in Europe, gold looking vulnerable


LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Silver was looking weak on European precious metals markets on Tuesday, dampening sentiment in an already dented gold market, traders said. ``Gold eased off last night, possibly drawn lower by the silver,'' said one trader. ``Silver is beginning to look poor again, and it would seem the vastly reduced level of Indian buying (normally huge at this time of year) may be a good cause of the weaker silver.'' Overall demand in both gold and silver was expected to reduce significantly in the key Indian consumer market as the country struggled to cope with the massive recent earthquake in the state of Gujarat. At 1120 GMT spot silver was at $4.66/$4.68 versus a New York close on Monday at $4.68/$4.70 a troy ounce. After peaks in the low $4.80s at the end of last month -- a rally mostly attributed to one large fund covering its short positions -- the price was back at levels seen three weeks ago. ``Moves lower will still be in the region of 3-4 cents at worst for the day though, so we're looking for a range of $4.65-$4.70,'' added the trader. Gold was also dented, looking to currency markets factors for direction, but with market sentiment negative overall, traders held out little hope for an uptick during the session. While last week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed the market was still running a large short position, prices some analysts said prices needed to weaken further before any short covering buying was seen. Dealers cited $262 as a level that might prompt fresh buying interest.

Market players also said gold was slightly depressed on the back of Tuesday morning headlines from South Africa that world number one miner Anglogold would hedge 50 percent of its five-year production, while Harmony said it would purchase one million ounces of put options. ``The market has had a bearish tone for the last few days -- though the prospect for short covering was still around -- but it was waiting for any signal for a starting point for any moves either up or down,'' said Frederic Panizzutti at MKS Finance in Geneva. ``Unfortunately, the hedging news came out at a moment where the market was seeking a direction indication and this has raised some old fears, perhaps.'' Forward producer hedge sales limit the market's upside potential. By 1120 GMT spot gold was down at $264.30/$264.70 from the New York close at $265.30/$265.80. Earlier, it dipped to a session low of $263.95 on the bid price.

Platinum and palladium were both firmer, picking up after last week's heavy profit taking. ``Palladium is looking a bit toppish around $1,080/$1,100. Platinum should go higher, but may take a few days to take off,'' said a trader. Palladium was last at $1,070/$1,110 from a close of $1,050/$1,080, while platinum was steady at $604/$611 from $603.70/$608.70.


Black Blade: Gold is down -$1.55 this morning. The hedge fund AngloGold is selling forward 50% of their production for five years. Not a good sign. This could be that they need the funds for the acquisition of Goldfields (GOLD) or some other miner. The acquisition of unhedged miners such as Goldfields would only result in much more gold sold forward in the market. The only good thing about this is that it would depress prices further out making forward sales unprofitable and the end result is that most miners will continue to high-grade their deposits. This in turn will deplete reserves. Some reserves have been written off by some miners such as Placer Dome and Barrick in recent days. Look for more to follow. This also increases the risk for the counter-parties (Central and Bullion Banks), as they are likely to be on the hook for gold leased out. We saw a small example of this when miners Pegasus and Dakota when belly up. In the case of Dakota, their counter-party bank (I believe in may have been Republic Bank) that had to eat the cost of forward sold gold. This scenario could increase significantly.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Black Blade
Mother Earth News is still in publication.
Black Blade
Gold Falls as South African Miners Announce Hedging Plans
Another take from Bloomberg
London, Feb. 6 ( Bloomberg ) -- Gold fell to its lowest price in a week after two mining companies said they would sell gold they haven't yet mined to protect themselves from falling gold prices and to raise funding for investment. Anglogold Ltd., the world's biggest producer, and Harmony Gold Mining Co., Africa's fourth-biggest gold producer, said separately they will sell borrowed metal in a practice known as hedging. AngloGold will hedge 50 percent of its production over five years to secure more funding for investment, the company's executive director of marketing, told a gold conference in Cape Town. AngloGold plans to mine 7.1 million ounces of gold this year. ``They're talking about ( selling forward ) 3.5 million ounces a year -- that's a big chunk of gold,'' said Hennie Rijnbeek, a gold trader at Rabobank in London. ``And they usually make an announcement after they started'' sales, which may mean the sales have already started. Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as $1.55, or 0.6 percent, to $264.10 an ounce in London. The metal has fallen 3.5 percent over the past six months. Harmony, which until now was selling gold only for immediate delivery, said it agreed to sell forward a million ounces of the metal. The company has a ``put option'', which gives Harmony the right but not the obligation to sell gold. Miners' sales of gold they have yet to mine drives down the price because they add not only to physical supply of the metal but also to expectations of a further decline of prices. The two companies made their announcements at a time when traders expect demand from the world's biggest gold consumer, India, to decline as a result of an earthquake that killed thousands in the western Indian state of Gujarat last month. Meanwhile, central banks continue selling gold from their reserves.

Falling Demand

Expectations of increased supply and falling demand have prompted traders to take short positions, or bets that prices will fall further. According to the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission, speculators as of Jan. 30 had sold 53,815 more gold futures contracts than they had bought in New York, a position that represented an obligation to deliver 5.38 million ounces. That's close to the highest level of being net short on gold since September 1999. Some traders fear that the price has fallen too far and they'd have to buy gold to cover these bets. There are two opposing trends in the market, said Frederic Panizzutti, head of strategy at MKS Finance SA, a Geneva-based precious metals refiner and marketer. ``The sentiment is bearish, but people are mindful that short-covering ( buying ) is possible.'' Concern about excessive short positions prompted a 1.1 percent rally in gold prices on Jan. 22, on the eve of the Bank of England's sale of 25 metric tons of gold.


Black Blade: I may just have to rethink my position on Harmony (HGMCY) after I review everything. I may just switch to physical over all as I think that Goldfields (GOLD) may be up for grabs. This is a tragedy.
Black Blade
RE: Stock, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Thanks. I thought that they were but I lost track of them over the years. I'm a bit depressed over this most recent news. Now I gotta raid my beer stash. I feel let down by Harmony (HGMCY), though it was not unexpected from Anglo (AU). Why would any company destroy their own industry is beyond me. Maybe we are looking at the Ashanti (ASL) and Cambior (CCJ) of the future.

- Black Blade
Pandagold
Blackblade

Me too. I wondered why Harmony's price had been flagging.

This is very ominous. You've 'unmade' my day
Pandagold
Blackblade

Perhaps a redeeming feature might be that this news has been factored in to some extent. The larger players get to know these things by their jungle tom toms. Can only hope

If it has, it will drop and then recover, if not, it will head south
DaveC
Pandagold on World Poverty
You cannot handle the words "I disagree with you" can you?

I grew up in Detroit. Watched the riots in 1969 and the attempts to burn the city down every Oct 30.

I have lived in Littel Rock, Orange County, CA, Seattle, Chicago, Princeton, NJ, Dayton, Ohio, Cleveland. I have travelled the country consulting to half the Fortune 500.

And my last place of residence before moving to Italy was Manhattan. Yes The Big Apple. 38th and 2nd, 50th and 2nd (in the shadows of the Oligarch Castle called the UN) and 92nd and 2nd. I spent 5 years there.

Yes there are men in cardboard boxes on the streets. But do you know what they do during the day? The collect recycleables. Yes, my dear, the are ENTREPRENUERS! They collect them in garbage bags and shopping carts and deliver them to a large recycle center uptown.

And there are no "cardboard cities". You may find 3 or 4 together but I think you need to turn off the oligarch-controlled BBC.

To compare this to the squalor in Mexico, where I have my timeshare, or to India, or heaven forbid, Africa is to show that you may have travelled but you did not have your eyes open.

Even the worst trailer parks in the US do not even come close to the third world. And no one starves in the US.

You attempt to use government statistics is feeble at best. Since when should we believe anything that comes from the CLinton admin? I prefer to trust my eyes.

As for the Feds cutting support for welfare, I suggest you read The Tragedy of American Compassion by Marvin Olasky for the real cause of America's "poverty."

Since you are incapable of handling even the simplest comment from me with being your usual insulting-arrogant-condescending-self I will no longer attempt any civil discourse as you have proven to all that you cannot handle the simplest disagreement.

When you write something, all sentences should be a part of the whole. That is why I should be able to take a sentence "The USA has some of the worst poverty in the world" and say "I disagree with that." But your response is always that I take this out of context. If the sentence cannot stand on it's own, why is it there? Why can you not elaborate on your original meaning? Your only response is to flame me. That tells me, and other clear thinkers, that you cannot back up your statements. If you cannot back them up, or admit that you may have misspoken (heaven forbid), then the statement does not belong.

Everyday I see you either pissing someone else off or apologizing. You seem to be having problems with many posters here. Do we all have a problem in interpreting your posts?

Get some help. And get over yourself.

Black Blade
RE: Pandagold
Yeah, this is a royal bummer! I'm going to tie some flies and relax a bit. Catch ya all later tonight.

- Black Blade
Randy (@ The Tower)
The return of the Swiss Confederatios and "The Mermaid Coin"from Denmark
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThey say variety is the spice of life, so help yourself to this variety of gold and enjoy yourself while you're here.

And more importantly, gold cannot help you until you help yourself! Get you some.
Pandagold
Dave C

I believe someone else told you to calm yourself.

You must travel around with your eyes shut, or too frightened to walk in the areas where the real provery lies.
Most people are. But, as an ex cop, I am not. Why are there so many police suicides in the US? Because they really see and live with the depravation.

And no where did I claim that poverty per se was on a larger scale in the US than in certain other countries of the third world

I replied to Mountain Top in a civil manner, and you would have received the same but like begets like, and this was not the first time with you, and which prompted someone to tell you about.

All that what yesterday, and your attitude want s to carry it on in a new day. Other people do not want have there day spoiled with this sort of verbosity. There are enough problems at present

Galearis
@ Topaz on British superiority
This is certainly a subjective area for discussion, and one I have pondered at some length (smile). The best idea I have come up with is from the media displays from both sides of the pond. For example: the Antiques Road Show on PBS. One has the opportunity of watching a British version and an American one. The difference in dress codes for participants in the American one is an illustrious one. These people would scare Vana White (smile). The British show reveals a much better quality dress code.

Another example is to be found throughout the old British colonies in the West Indies. Each day the cruise ships debouch their spills of American tourists into these tranquil islands and the difference between the slovenly but affluent tourists and the poor but clean and well dressed "natives" is frigtening apparent. The "ugly American" is more than just a phrase. (smile)

The other factor is the better education systems in the British system compared to the American. Tony Blair, for example, actually knows some geography. George Dubya, well.... Etc.

Best regards,

G.
Randy (@ The Tower)
GOLD: The perfect Valentine's Day Gift
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlFor you gentlemen who need help to keep your bacon out of the fire, Marie suggests you call her with your order by Thursday the 8th to ensure timely delivery for your sweetheart's enjoyment next week. (ANYone can give flowers and candy. Show her you are a cut above with a gift of GOLD!)
RossL
Pandagold

All those statistics you are posting are mere propaganda from the media. Perhaps you could provide the sources for all of us to examine? Your condescending attitude is not winning you any converts.

Randy (@ The Tower)
Price of gold...
You cannot say we haven't thoroughly discussed the mechanics of gold's paper-based (derivatives) means of price discovery, and with it, the likelihood of an eventual discount selloff by paper longs as they finally come to realize the nature of the game...that a paper pledge by any color is still paper subject to vaporization and counterparty risk.

For the uncertain times (monetary environment) ahead, if you haven't got *physical* gold, you haven't got a clue.
Journeyman
Propaganda @Pandagold, RossL, ALL

Every country conditions it's "citizens" that their country is the "best." It's human nature to believe such notions.

The Germans under Hitler were not told that they were the bad guys. The Iraqis under Saddam weren't told they were the bad guys.

In fact, when someone attacks "your" group, you reject it.

We Americans are no different - - - except possibly, the propaganda we've been subjected to is more effective because we beleive we have a "free press."

Also, we have memories of how America USED to be.

Pandagold's posts may not make him American friends, but remember to other countries, we are "The Great Satan," the "Colossus of the North," etc.

And we, like German and Iraq citizens, tend to gloss-over and ignore the blots on "our" country - - - largely, as is the Kalifornia energy crisis, caused by the government we allow to do stuff to us.

Let me mention just two such blots:

Our collective health leaves much to be desired in comparison to other countries:

...to scientists' surprise, a growing body of evidence
indicates that increasing familiarity with U.S. culture and
society renders immigrants and their children far more
susceptible to many mental and physical ailments, even if
they attain financial success.

The latest study of this phenomenon, directed by
epidemiologist William A. Vega of the University of Texas,
San Antonio finds much higher rates of major depression,
substance abuse, and other mental disorders in U.S.-born
Mexican-Americans compared with both recent and
long-standing Mexican-American immigrants. ...A panel
convened by the National Research Council and the Institute
of Medicine, both in Washington, D.C., reviewed previous
studies and concluded that *assimilation into a U.S.
lifestyle may undermine the overall health of immigrant
children much more than being poor does.*

"The material on immigrant health shocked me when we
first reviewed it," says panel member Arthur M. Kleinman, a
psychiatrist and anthropologist at Harvard Medical School in
Boston. "Vega's study is consistent with the panel's
conclusion that immigrants' health deteriorates with
assimilation to U.S. society," declining toward general U.S.
norms, says Kleinman. *Other studies have indicated that
citizens of many countries, including Mexico, are healthier
overall than U.S. citizens.*

A related study of 1,500 public health care users in
California, conducted by psychiatrist Javier I. Escobar of
the RWJ Medical School in Piscatasay, N.J., reports lower
rates of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, as
well as better physical health, in Mexican and Central
American immigrants than in U.S.-born Hispanics.
Nonetheless, immigrants were poorer than the U.S. natives,
Escobar's team reports in an upcoming _British Journal of
Psychiatry_. -B.Bower, Immigrants Go from Health to Worse,
SCIENCE NEWS, SEPTEMBER 12, 1998, p. 180

Secondly, here in the freest country in the world, we have the largest prison population in the world. More things are against the law and there are more cops per capita than in any other country in the world.

Does that sound like anti-American propaganda to you?

It does to me, but unfortunately it's all true.

Needless to say, there are other blots as well.

Regards,
Journeyman
Black Blade
Mixed Signals?
There are several reports out now on the hedging of Anglo and Harmony. There is some confusion on the Harmony position as some say that there are forward sales and and others say that it is entirely put options. Put options wouldn't necessarily be a death blow as forward sales would only throw gasoline on the fire. There may be some clarification by Harmony later today. Anglo however, has slammed gold down -$3.00 so far today. Looks like financing to grab up a another miner - perhaps a run on Goldfields.

- Black Blade

Trail Guide
comment
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/010206/80/azvre.html
Hello all:

I can't talk now, but I noticed in the link above (found on MKs great news page) that Old England is changing it's Thoughts. (smile)

--------------------------

Tuesday February 6, 11:53 AM

Support for euro soars among
London bosses - poll

---LONDON (Reuters) - Support for Britain's entry into Europe's single currency has soared among company bosses in London, a London Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey showed today. --- The proportion of the capital's top executives in favour of entry "as soon as possible"
has doubled during the last 18 months to 40 percent, according to the poll ----------------The poll, published in the London Evening Standard newspaper, found that a further 36 percent favoured entry "within the next few years", bringing total support for joining the euro to 76
percent.--------The Labour party is committed in principle to joining Europe's single currency club--------

-----------------------

Ok, now they are getting the drift! Also take a look at Pandagold's:

-----------------------

(usagold.com msg#: 47540)
"......GORDON BROWN made a profit from selling some of the UK's gold reserves and investing in the ailing euro currency, MPs were told yesterday. A senior Treasury official said that, even though the euro had fallen in value, not lost out because investments in euros also paid interest, unlike gold. Gus O'Donnell, also insisted the Chancellor's policy of selling gold was not related to the Government's desire to join the euro.............

-------------------------

Ha! Ha! Old "GUS" read that last line from pre-printed material,,,,, don't you think? With the Euro and it's economy, also forming a powerful base, and it's coming policy about gold, the Brits won't need as much gold as a government money reserve. Because the ECB will allow this new non - money asset to rise like never before! Especially in dollars! And that thought gives big paper gold traders the shakes, as it's (paper gold marketplace) trading value is based on a dollar price band remaining in place. Soooo, HM government is saving a few of them (big BBs) before EMU.

Don't forget to notice the item in today's WSJ about how Euro-zone producer prices fell in december! This does not sound to me or to the Brits like a world currency that was being printed as "social trash paper" does it?

Let me see,,, if the ECB keeps rates from falling too fast and the USA keeps rates falling to ensure it's overheated economy ,,,,, then something of a shift in in world opinion about reserve money is coming? No?

Also:
It looks like more of the miners are doing something "who would have thought of"??? ,,,, dump all their real gold into the gold paper market. It would not take a rocket scientist to see how their financial structure demands nothing less? Yet, investors are still clinging to the ideal that all these securities are a proxy for "real gold"!!!! This could eventually lead to the failure of paper gold and / or the total loss of "equity" value for most mine shares?????? More than a few paper traders will feel the sting of buying paper gold based on it's ongoing paper pricing of real physical metal.

Some mines will, indeed,,,, make it across this valley,,,,,, and still have massive reserves intact. But, for the thinking gold advocate,,,,,, playing all the speculative metals and mine securities for a quick profit will only produce quick loses,,,,, no? Today, every aspect of perceived value in the gold arena is an illusion based on an "unknown",,,,,, the "unknown" trading price of physical gold.

The real leverage today, is found in the "hunk" of real gold in one's hand. That value will be shown at "Another" time.

---------
Black Blade (02/06/01; 06:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 47549)
I feel let down by Harmony (HGMCY),------------
----------------

Buy a real physical gold value,,,,,, today,,,,,, for free,,,,, by just paying it's currency commission as a full price. The future is for all who can see ahead,,,,, down the trail. (smile) The "Advantage" of holding real gold has never been better!

I'll post in a few days when I have time.

TrailGuide
tedw
Seig heil Governor Davis
http://www.usagold.com
California Governor Davis has seized 450 million dollars of privately owned options. The options could have been sold off to pay legitimate creditors, but cant know because Governor Davis has stolen them.

I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another.
tedw
Seig heil Governor Davis
http://www.usagold.com
California Governor Davis has seized 450 million dollars of privately owned options. The options could have been sold off to pay legitimate creditors, but cant know because Governor Davis has stolen them.

I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another.
Randy (@ The Tower)
The Tower has just received the weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem
For the week ended February 2nd, the ECB reports the net position in foreign currency assets declining by 100 million euros to 260.8 billion euros in total value. Gold assets remain unchanged at 118.611 billion euros, and shall remain so until the first of either the next quarterly revaluation date, or the commencement of this year's 50 tonne allotment for gold reallocation through some combination of activity by the CBs for the Netherlands and Austria. We expect that when that event is eventually revealed after the fact, the BIS will once again have played an instrumental role in the non-disruptive reallocation to eager hands.

Given the volume cleared daily by the LBMA, this quantity of metal will be but a sprinkle of water to quench a thirst on a hot day...and we will never see the full depth of the deal-- beyond the price appearing to be, oh, such a bargain!
Trail Guide
Note

Randy (@ The Tower) (2/6/2001; 7:48:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 47559)

--For the uncertain times (monetary environment) ahead, if you haven't got *physical* gold, you haven't got a clue.----

-----------

Ha! HA! You are right there, my friend!!!!


I must be "on the road" for a while.

TrailGuide
Pandagold
Ross L

I do not seek converts. You are free to believe , or not to believe. It doesn't add a dime to my pocket. The statistics are in public domain, and you can find them, or better still, you find some that disprove. As DaveC says he doesn't believe them anyway.
I guess I just hit a nerve. They say, the truth hurts.

But usually, if a government is going to lie with its statistics, it tends to make things appear better than what they are, not worse. Or perhaps you have an answer for that.

While the truth may hurt, it is the truth that will set us free.
Pandagold
On a lighter note


Many years ago, I was asked if I would like to go hare shooting. Having never been before, and it not having connected in my then naive mind that I would be expected to shoot, and kill, little 'Bugs Bunnies, I agreed.

The part I remember was lying behind a hedge in a long line of fellow shooters armed with double barrels and waiting for 'the beeters' to drive the poor creatures ( while keeeping out of range themselves, of course) into our line of fire.

This was my first and last time. The poor little things didn't stand a chance - and those human-like squeels as they flew in the air when hit.

Sometimes I see a slight similarity in this financial hare shoot. The media's financial pundits (beeters) drive us excitedly right into the line of fire - then pop! We get skinned, and eaten.
Pandagold
correction
The word is 'beaters'
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
beesting, your post #47420........ on Andrew Jackson our 7th President
I agree that Andrew Jackson is arguably this nations best if not most courageous president. He and his eclectic forces sure gave the British a well deserved kick in the a*se at New Orleans! He also supplied the noose for the national banks. The life story of Andrew Jackson should be required reading for all US students. (It of course lacks the requisite political correctness deemed necessary in the education establishment.)

However, as much as I would like such a formidable nickname as "Stonewall" to apply to Andrew Jackson, it instead belongs to General Thomas Jackson of the Confederacy. Andrew Jackson's popular nickname within the US is "Old Hickory", if anyone has had to work with old hickory in any way you know how tough that can be!
goldfan
@tg msg#: 47509 on dollar flood dynamics

Hi again tg, thanks for your continuing dialogue.

>>>You say, "The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy".
But what happens if the consumer and corporations who are already deeply indebted, decide to pay off loans rather then borrow more.<<<

If their cash flow is dropping, they can't pay off the loans. Anymore than I can pay off my credit card and mortgage debts, if my pay gets cut and jobs are getting scarce. Or if, as an independent "entrepreneur" I start having difficulty finding customers and have to cut my rates. However, if I can hang on I can maybe gradually pay off the debts with depreciated money. This is the hope today of a lot of people and the deliberate policy of the Greenspan et al gang, I believe. The problem is that there is very likely not enough time left for this strategy to work. I believe ORO has said the US is now printing money (read borrowing) to pay the interest on previous borrowings. Hope I'm not misunderstanding him. I believe the "money-control" is spinning out of control. Evidence is the extreme volatility in stock and credit markets. Just like many householders who are in over their heads, the US is now just juggling between credit cards to keep the US $ afloat. Read Doug Noland at Prudentbear.com. The game will be over when the assets others are holding to back all their loans to the US start being sold all at once. Just like when your broker issues a margin call and sells you out for whatever lowball price he can get.


>>>>You say, "when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer."
That is an assumption which may or maynot play out. What happens if there is asset deflation caused by a credit crunch? I think the public would rather be holding dollars under that scenario.<<<

What is the use of holding dollars if it takes a wheelbarrow full to buy a pack of cigarettes? I'd rather hold the cigarettes, and I do. The asset deflation is happening. But that alone won't remove the alaready created dollars from all the electronic pots where they circulate. When all those dollars start flowing into the few goods left, hard enough , like cigarettes and vodka, (not gold, there will be none of that on the market available to you and me) to be seen as a store of value, then we will understand what it means to lose the actuality and the dream of empire.

Your questions help me to get clearer on my thinking, thanks

Goldfan



>>>>I am not sure my logic is sound, but as i see it if people are in debt, then they dont have any money to buy hard assets.<<<<

The people who don't have any money to buy hard assets now are going to we wandering the streets selling cigarettes and flowers, just like in Russia today.


Cheers

Goldfan



Peter Asher
Journeyman msg#: 47560 and the poverty debate

*assimilation into a U.S.lifestyle may undermine the overall health of immigrant children much more than being poor does.*

The answer to this �surprise' �they' found, can be seen in this excerpt from last week's post of my youngest's observations when she was 17. This is having nothing when that is no different from those around you, in clean open country, and others are not exploiting profiting from your labor.
(They also don't experience the �values' of the TV'd world.)

Also, the last line has a message for the "Grasshoppers"

Summer 1993 --- Mongolian Steppes.

Yesterday, I climbed the hill with the children to a place at the top to put prayer stones. Partway
up, while resting, the Russian-speaking girl (a thirteen-year-old, 2 years ahead in school) said,
"My sister wants to sing you a song." Her sister sings this song, big smile on her face, voice
sharp and clear over the silent town, and I think, "Where do these fairy tale children come from?
They are happy and full of laughter and all the good things people think of when they think of children, and none of the bad. They live here in Tosonstengel, where nobody has a job because
the furniture factory closed down, nothing works anymore-- electricity, radio. Nobody has any
money. The woman I stay with weaves carpets now to sell, because there is no work. I think the
man fixes clocks. Everyone has taken something up at home. But they have such poverty and such difficulty - no gas for cars or barely any, etc. Yet they are the happiest people I have ever
known, despite the hardship. Not that they don't mind. They do. But how come the Europeans
have so much and aren't happy? The children always amaze me. A two-year-old child pours
herself a cup of tea from a heavy teapot. Seven-year-olds tending the fire, helping with the
cooking. They wash the clothes, dig up the potatoes at lunchtime, go to get the water from the
river, never have any problem with it. And they are incredibly capable, riding around on horses.
(Lamp oil running out. Good night.)
Old Yeller
Anglo Gold ,hmm'smells a lot like the BOE

Is it just a coincidence,or does this blantantly bearish maneuver by Anglogold remind one of the BOE annoucement in 1999.These people(I use the term loosely),represent the largest producer in South Africa,which has already put in place a massive hedge program.I not positive on their total cost per ounce,but it must be quite close to the current spot price.

Being that the gold price seems to be quite close to an inflection point as in early 1999,we are all looking for a catalyst to break it out of it's trading range.The Brits were successful then, can Anglo replicate this?Lets hope this strategy of undermining the current selling price of their own product,reducing the net worth of their long suffering shareholders and reducing the desperately needed foreign exchange earnings of their host country comes back to bite their hugely over-exposed,you know what.
Peter Asher
Panda, if I may join in.

>>>But usually, if a government is going to lie with its statistics, it tends to make things appear better than what they are, not worse. Or perhaps you have an answer for that.<<<

They lie in this case to make the enslaved sheeple, by contrast, feel they are better off then they are.

"There but for the grace of my job, go I"
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Pandagold, Hare Hunting, How Hilarious!
It amazes me how something as enjoyable as rabbit hunting could be perverted into what you described. A line of "hunters" hiding behind a wall waiting for "the beaters" to flush the rabbits out in front of the wall? How truly barbaric. Very unsportsmanlike. Were tea and crumpets catered behind that wall? Was the end of the field mined as well? Your reaction to it is understandable. I had a good laugh at first envisioning the "setting" with the word "hunt" to describe it, then revulsion.


Such hunting is best done walking alone or in the company of a rabbit running hound. When walking alone you shoot what you flush, immediately or after tracking. Hunting with a hound requires more practice (for you and the hound) yet is extremely enjoyable and rewarding. The rabbit when chased will almost invariably run in a circle. The yelp (pitch and frequency) of the hound will let you know when the rabbit is fast approaching. The shooting "sport" of it is first rate!
Peter Asher
tedw msg#: 47563)
You said
>>> I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another. <<<

Me too, it's called taxation!
Pandagold
The Battle of New Orleans

SLATT: Now this is pure harmless banter, don't take seriously, please - When the battle was fought, the peace treaty had already been signed but communications could not, at that time, reach them. Then of course the Brits were playing away - a long, long, way away.

And one must remember, many of these patriots were 'Brits
two or three times removed - even Washington, John Paul Jones (Welsh name, but a Scot)
Peter Asher
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape msg#: 47575)

>>>The yelp (pitch and frequency) of the hound will let you know when the rabbit is fast approaching. The shooting "sport" of it is first rate! <<<<

Is that because of Panda's "and those human-like squeels as they flew in the air when hit."

From Ogden Nash:

Hi handsome hunting man,
Fire your little gun.
BANG! now the animal,
Is dead and dumb and done.

Nevermore to run again,
xxx xxx xxx
Bask in the sun again.
Oh What Fun!
Pandagold
Wabbits!

Hares are a little bigger than wabbits, and they jump higher. I think that sort of fire would have left nothing of a wabbit to jump.

As you say, it was revolting. I heard those pathetic screams for days.

We buried the excess carcasses in the fields which had been planted with corn. As they say - Hare today, corn tomorrow.

(sorry about that - not really)
Pandagold
Old Yeller

You are bang on there, you took the words right out of my mouth. I feel a deal has been done ahead of a POG rise later ( you can think of your own reasons anyone out there - there are enough to choose from)
USAGOLD
All. . . .
I have received a number of complaints -- some from longtime posters, clients and lurkers -- about the off topic posts and general bickering here at the Forum. One individual complained that he had to scroll through at least ten posts, many of them unpleasant, before he got to one that had anything to do with gold. So, in order to come to some sort of conclusion myself, I did a quick survey of yesterday's posts to get a feel for what's going on here.

Yesterday we had a total of 68 posts. Of that total,

11 were on topic meaning they were about gold and/or the politics and economics which affect it with the proper tie-ins.

15 were somewhat on topic meaning they had some meaningful content that could be related to gold, or where the poster was at least indirectly staying on topic.

40 posts were off topic!

40!

10 actually mentioned the word gold. Hooray.

We had at least three internecine battles wherein the posters were making every attempt to insure that they would never lose an on-line argument (I put all those in the off-topic bin as I don't think many people particularly cared about these ego/alter-ego entanglements), a number of posts on silver, and three outright advertisements. I didn't include Randy's posts in the total.

Not a bad day at the old forum.

This forum has attracted top notch posters from the start because of its disciplined approach. We seem to have gotten away from that. Let's get back to disciplining the posting so that the subject is brought back to gold. That's why people come here -- to learn about gold both as posters and lurkers. I really don't have a problem with the "somewhat on topic" category, if it is trending to some larger conclusion involving gold (like in Oro's posting -- for example) -- as it relates to the current economy, politics, social order, etc. But these posts that wander off into various personal interests and concerns that little or nothing to do with gold are getting tiresome.

Beyond the off-topic problems, let's keep in mind that this is a discussion group not a chat room. If you want to chat and insult each other, please chat away and insult at AOL with the rest of the kids. I would like to see more restraint on the part of all; and more self-policing of the site. We all know the rules and if you've forgotten them, I suggest a refresher course because they will be enforced. Several people have had their posting privileges revoked over the past several weeks for breaking them and several others are on our watch list.

Please keep in mind that what goes on here is a direct reflection on USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, as well as each of you individually. There is a warning contained on the prohibitions page that has never been altered or taken down.

It reads:

"This Forum is offered on a trial basis. The outcome of this trial is up to the posters. If the guidelines are generally followed, the Forum will remain open. If violations of the guidelines persist or if monitoring the site becomes burdensome or in any way a business liability, USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals reserves the right to discontinue the Forum without advance warning."

Please don't take that casually. I do not take pleasure posting this sort of message, but at the same time this is a public venue with a very specialized and narrow interest. Those who feel uncomfortable with these purposes and goals can find other channels of expression all over the internet.

This is a Gold Forum and a Gold Forum it shall remain.

Thank you.

Let the discussion continue. . . . . . .
Pandagold
USA Gold
Message received and understood, over and out
Old Yeller
Tech investors;golden second half or....
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/streetsidechat/1289155.html
Yikes,if Mr.Hickey is right about future prospects for this industry,look for some serious bubble re-configuration as the year progresses.Amazing,isn't it,the ever lasting hopes of these investors,looking for a quick rebound of these companies with mega billion market caps and mind boggling P/E ratios.

It's a funny old world.Thanks to Fleck for the link.
JMB
Goldman Sachs

From a total of 296 Gold deliveries issued on the Comex today, our new found allies have stopped 121 contracts. These guys must be gluttons for punishment. I'M KIDDING, I'M KIDDING...they're a brilliant, farsighted, and patriotic organization with mandkind's welfare uppermost in their thinking.
Mr Gresham
Panda, Trail Guide
Panda: Perhaps, the "silence of the scammed"? ("The media's financial pundits (beeters) drive us excitedly right into the line of fire - then pop! We get skinned, and eaten.") Just another day of service in Mr Lector's employ, sir.

Trail Guide: Happy Trails to you. Whether it be silks or spices, Samarkand or Timbuktu, your home awaits your return.



beesting
Stocks, Lies, & Ticker Tape # 47570...The Jacksons!
Hi SL&TT,
Thanks for the correction. After I posted the post(Short comment on a video I had just finished watching) about Andrew Jackson the phrase "Old Hickory" kept running thru my head. I spent about an hour looking thru my available research books to varify if "Stonewall" was indeed his nickname, with no success. My mistake is an excellent example of how certain facts can get misplaced or distorted over time, a good lesson for this student, and a good reason to compare all sources of information. Thank You!(((If I was a reporter I could have been fired for that flub)))

As for todays Gold announcements by Sir Black Blade, I too feel let down, but what it is showing is Sirs Another/FOA/Trail Guides previous predictions seem to be "right on the money"!Sooner or later dollar debt will destroy the percieved "Value" of the paper dollar.

I'm personally using this drop in POG to accumulate more physical. I believe the Gold mining industry is being destroyed by manipulation of paper debt.If the mining industry is destroyed or partially destroyed, wouldn't that cause the value of Gold in Hand to rise dramatically?

One other thing I forgot to mention about Japan was, when I was there, interest rates were very high so most things were bought with "Cash',causing people to save, building the strength, or percieved value, of the Yen.
IMHO if the monthly or daily U.S. balance of trade defict were added(in this case subtracted) from U.S. dollar currency valuations honestly, the U.S. dollar would have devalued long ago.

More on the video "The Money Masters" when time permits....beesting.
Flatlander
USA GOLD
Thanks, we needed that!
Flatlander
JMB
I guess I will have to ask for clarification of just what you mean by Goldman Sachs stopping a delivery contract for gold and what are the ramifications of that act. Thanks from the farmer in Kansas.
Mr Gresham
Money supply -- to the Moon!, & MK USA Gold
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=109397In case there was any doubt about future inflation:

"The Bubble Fix
Posted By: SV Bear
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2001, at 12:49 a.m.
As usual MSDW folks are doing good job --

http://www.msdw.com/gef

"There can be no mistaking the Fed's intent at this juncture. The 100 bp of monetary easing that occurred in January 2001 represents the most aggressive monetary stimulus in a one-month time frame since 1982. And that's quite a precedent -- coming, as it did, in the depths of what turned out to be the worst recession of the post-Depression era. Moreover, beginning late last year, the central bank has turned the liquidity spigot wide open. The money supply has surged, with annualized rates of change for both MZM and M3 closing in on 15% in the three months ending January 2001. That's on a par with the pre-Y2K liquidity injection that occurred in late 1999 and that set the stage for the final Nasdaq blowout in early 2000.
..
"So as the Fed bares its soul, there can be no mistaking its aim. It's all about confidence -- the fuzziest of all economic parameters. Lord Keynes put it best long ago by underscoring the key role that "animal spirits" played in shaping economic activity. "


MK: Lots of tunes jumped into my head about "You're gonna lose a good thing, baby", etc etc. In a world of Shams, you would think a Good Thing would be recognized, and treated better.

People, for various reasons, don't know when they've got a Good Thing. Or even if they do, don't know what to do with it. Gold ownership is a lonely status, and "chat therapy (or venting)" FWIW, may temporarily help some (mea culpa) but if they do not give back to the group, then, well... And it takes awhile to see if someone is going to be a taker or a giver. And sometimes their entry overwhelms the board, or triggers others, until that is known and they settle in.

A difficult, delicate job being a board master (schoolmaster? school bus driver?), because the freedom that allows the best to shine, allows others to alloy it with their mixed contributions. My closest experience was a volunteer newsletter editor (twice) for causes in which I believed strongly. You can guess therefore that the pain was doubled when various forms of disrespect were dumped on me and my efforts, or others fought out their ego-battles in the venue I'd created for them to give and build something.

Your consolation prize? Being part of economic and Internet history? (You know if Oro writes it, you'll be more than a footnote!) Advancing economic understanding (Austrian? or do we have to call ourselves Austrian-Americans?) Helping families survive in hard times? Many more I could list.

But I know it will probably have to be mostly just the satisfaction that you were part of, and the founder of, a Good Thing, for all the s**t you had to put up with. Thank you.
Topaz
Pandagold

Panda, if you check (early) today I posted the OS comment.
As far as the Kennedy link goes, I too found a problem with connecting until I realised the page I wanted was loading UNDER the main menu. Go try it again and this time - after the menu re-loads - scroll down to read the relevant article.
Rest assured, it's worth the effort.
CoBra(too)
On Anglo's and other Hedge Funds ...
Re: Black Blade - As you've said you're saddened about Harmony taking up hedging - have they? I don't think so - they only had to insure the price for the takeover of two
mines Anglo couldn't cope without writing them off, due to POG. And HGMCY did it in a positive way and not as the media spin would have make us believe - and I still believe in Bernard Swanepoel.
Now Anglo is another proposition alltogether. Producing 7moz/a and already 50% hedged for five years of production. At these prices they have to come up with new and cheap reserves rapidly in order not to default on their own obligations vis a vis their bankers. A real death spiral - as in analogy of "beggar your neighbour", or who can depriciate their currency faster - in order to survive? -barely, if at all.
In this context I've picked up a tv show on NTV with Deutsche Bank's Rolf Breuer, proudly presenting the best quarter ever. At the same time DB announced the layoff of 2.600 employees over this year. And not enough of the good news, shortly after that another DB official told the world that they will start an exchange listed hedge fund to enable not only the super rich to profit from this kind of supra-boosting capital appreciation vehicle. - Or is it just the amelioration of capital depreciating in their own accounts? A nice way of "socializing" losses already ocurring?
Just a thought - cb2
And as a PS: Yes it seems TG is right on - though he's fair eenough to state some G-Miners might just make it across the valley with their reserves intact - without being snide - what tact - tku TG
JMB
Flatlander and N.M.
Flatlander: What do you do when you can't plant Wheat? You Sir, are truly a big part of the strength of our nation. I salute you.

Check out my post at 8:33 am yesterday and also the post at about the same time last Friday. Before I try to explain this stuff I want to contact "The Brass" and get him to post the sight where I get the info.
N.M.: I didn't see your post yesterday...called away for baby sitting duties...I'm new at this computer stuff and have not learned to cut'n paste or whatever they call it. If I can e-mail the sight to MK he can post it.

As you know, Futures Contracts expire. Deliveries are made. Goldman Sachs is taking delivery. I'll get back to you, but I must call MK first.
Lafisrap
The FOA/Another Scenario
I am willing to adjust my writing in the following as necessary to make it accurate.

The main FOA/Another message is that the U.S. dollar price for immediate cash delivery of physical gold will eventually be in the many thousands of dollars.

When? No exact time or time frame is given for the event; however, FOA/Another do allude to time frames such as "this year" and "soon" for various sub-events and offer a description of a sequence of events leading up to the main event. The main event is the pricing of gold in many thousands of U.S. dollars.

What do they mean by "many thousands of dollars?" Well, "many" is more than "few." Two is a couple, which is less than a few. "Few" can, reasonably mean "three," "four," or even "five." "Many" would generally not be used to describe a number less than five. We have heard from FOA/Another that
POG could go as high as $30,000. So, let us put a minimum number to the phrase "many thousands of dollars." The minimum shall be 6,000, based on my declaration that "five" is closer to "few" than it is to "many." In the FOA/Another scenario, $6,000 per troy ounce is the predicted minimum high to which POG will go. If that is not the case, FOA/Another are invited to correct this figure.

So, the message becomes: The U.S. dollar price for immediate cash delivery of physical gold will eventually be at least $6,000 per troy ounce.

Now we are getting somewhere. We have a price. We need a time.

FOA/Another do not specify a time, just that eventuality is implied. Well, that poses a problem. Yes, it may be prudent to balance one's portfolio with some physical gold, which immediately confronts us with questions concerning balance. How much physical gold is needed? Well, naturally, we get many different answers coming from different investment advisors. Predictably, those who sell gold generally recommend a higher percentage than those who sell other investment vehicles. And what of those investors who wish to fully capitalize on the projected rise in POG by holding a large portion of their assets in physical gold? The amount of physical gold a person owns, or the percentage of physical gold someone holds in their portfolio is mute.

We are interested in mainly two things, how high POG will go and when it will move there. Discussions concerning how much physical gold a person should hold are not relevant. Such discussions provide no strength to any argument in support of or opposition to the FOA/Another scenario, but tend to provide only an avenue of excuse or blame useful to sellers of physical gold when confronted by investors in physical gold who may be disappointed in a drop in POG.

As the current POG drops steadily over many years, all investors in physical gold are faced with two important things:

1. current reality
2. dreams and expectations of the future

If people have purchased physical gold and hope to profit from it based on the strength of the arguments in the FOA/Another scenario, faced with the facts that the FOA/Another scenario was originally presented on the Internet a few years ago (1997?) and that, except for two anomalous periods, the POG has not risen at all, but rather has steadily declined, those people who hoped to profit may want to re-evaluate the strength of the arguments in the FOA/Another scenario.

So, what are those arguments? Well, it is not all that easy to organize them because those arguments are not always specific, are generally not presented in any manner that would traditionally be consider organized, and, in fact, aren't even considered arguments by FOA/Another. Rather the information provided is offered as "thought." Do these thoughts somehow warrant basing investment decisions to purchase and hold physical gold? I don't know. That is what I wish to explore.

We have a predicted price (6000), so lets confront the problem of eventuality. "Eventually" could mean a very, very long time. And that is absolutely not an acceptable time frame for the predicted event (POG in the many thousands of dollars). But it is also, perhaps, unreasonable to expect FOA/Another to provide a time frame. I tend to disagree, if for no other reason than that "eventually" is completely useless.

It may help to ask "Are we getting close, or closer?" And in the FOA/Another scenario, because it contains predicted events leading up to the main event, we can ask that question, answer it ourselves, and expect to have some useful information. So, what are the predicted events leading up to the main event? And what is their sequence?

Please help me correct these items and put them in the correct sequence. I am probably missing some important items. If you can think of them, please remind me. I hope that FOA/Another will help clarify their message.

1. in terms of other currencies, the U.S. dollar and POG will rise together
(did not happen)
2. the BIS will buy gold in the open if POG drops below $280
(did not happen)
3. POG as priced by LBMA and COMEX will go to zero
4. LBMA and COMEX will cease to function
5. BIS will establish a new gold market that deals only in physical gold
6. OPEC will price oil in euro and no longer accept U.S. dollars for oil
7. the U.S. will experience hyperinflation
8. the euro will replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency
9. POG as priced in U.S. dollars will go to many thousands

Thanks,

Lafisrap
DaveC
Mr Gresham (02/06/01; 11:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47589)
high Powered MoneyMr G., What Easy Al does not realize, or maybe he does and is helpless, is that this high-powered money will seek out inflationary assets.

Put a chart of the NASDAQ against a chart of the CRB and you can see where this money is going to end up.

It's why people like Jim Rogers are starting commoditiy funds. This, led by energy, will be the play for the near future, minimum.

OCICBW.
DaveC
Just Announced
Bill Gates files to sell 3 mln Microsoft shares
WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) Chairman and co-founder Bill Gates has made a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell 3 million common shares of the world's largest software company.

The shares had a market value of $193 million when he made the filing on Jan. 29, the document showed.

Gates sold a total of 13 million shares valued at more than $881 million between Oct. 30, 2000 and Jan. 26, 2001.

His spokeswoman was not immediately available to comment on the proposed sale of the 3 million shares, but she has said that Gates routinely sells some of his Microsoft stock for portfolio diversification.

Microsoft shares were trading up 8/16 to $62-7/16 in Tuesday afternoon activity on Nasdaq. The shares have been as high as $115 and as low as $40-4/16 in the past 52 weeks. END

My charts showed MSFT was ready to turn over.
So, 3 mil times let's say $50 per equals a cool $150 mil.

What they failed to say was Paul Allen sold more than twice as much as Gates in the same time frame late last year.

Maybe he wants to buy a gold mine? Naw.

Mr Gresham
A Dad's Teachable Moment
My 4-year-old girl just brought me her abacus (10x10) board of large colored wooden beads (made in Sweden, of course), which she had shown no interest in since we got it 3 years ago. We just played some spontaneous games that moved into the additive and transitive properties of math. (!!!)

My heart warmed at the prospect of some math acquaintance passing on to the next generation. I think it should be learned by tactile counting games, not a computer program (which we also have several of.)

I was a math obsessive as a kid, so I went lightly on my other kids, and they seem to have become part of Innumerate America. Wonder if this one will acquire the fine tools of comfortable math handling in her head, without the overreach of obsessive numeracy?

Wrapping up, I wondered why couldn't there be an abacus for the gold and currency markets for us "pre-schoolers" to get our hands on? We're just comparing mostly abstract models here, without hands-on experience. And we probably would want to discard that "market" knowledge as soon as we've figured out their failure points, if they were put up solely for the purpose of price control.

Those are difficult aspects of following FOA's trail, because those markets will probably always remain "just stories" to us, even as they pass into history without our participation. (Better to hear about, and deal with, them even tangentially, than not at all.)
Pandagold
POG and current events



I am rehashing a posting I made earlier today because I believe it is very relevant to POG, at this moment in time, and could explain a surge of negative comments and POG small gyrations.

There is a serious problem bubbling in the ME (I know, there always is) But things are coming to a head. Today is Israeli elections. While some street battling has been going on � the weight behind them, or that could be behind them, has been subdued awaiting the election outcome. This is happening while Libya is seething at the results of the court case on Lockerbie. This should be positive for gold and could, under normal conditions put upward pressure on price.

It is also Brit elections soon, and they don't want to be embarrassed by seeing gold rise so soon after selling so much.

However, the 'agenda' whether you believe it or not, is to stop any run away from the euro while the dollar is weakening.

Consequently, there will lots of things put out as scare tactics, measures taken to push the price down. There is too much 'investment' by 'them' to blow it all now.

Of course, if the outcome in the Middle East aided by a big oil price rise did occur, then that could blow it. It is merely something to think about. Take adavantage of any drop in the gold price, because later this year.....................
DaveC
Mr Gresham (02/06/01; 12:05:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47596)
Mr. G, How about a slide rule?

I taught myself how to use on early on. I love seeing old NASA footage with the guys using slide rules. Quite amazing.

Mr Gresham
Dave, Lafisrap
Didn't LTCM have one of those option-pricing slide rules? Of course B&S never told anyone what to do when the slide came out of the groove and wouldn't go back in.

I had a favorite slide rule (Keuffel & Esser) that was my father's from back in the 30s. Of course I didn't bring it to school because that is what would get us beaten up in the hallways by the Junior Maf kids.

Lafisrap: (Not a complete response) I believe your #3 actually said paper POG MIGHT go to zero, in contrast to physical and in concert with a "separation" of the two markets. (I could use a re-read on this.) The point being that a desperate paper world would flood those markets with paper promises for a few days/weeks max as those promises were taken to be worth pennies on the dollar as the unlikelihood of ever being deliverable or settled in cash became recognized.

IMO, it's unlikely anything would ever get to zero, and the number was thrown in for dramatic effect to illustrate the point of separation.
Simply Me
It's all about confidence. Isn't that the definition of a 'con' game?
From Mr. Gresham's recent posting of 'The Bubble Fix',
Posted By: SV Bear) "So as the Fed bares its soul, there can be no mistaking its aim. It's all about confidence......."

My comment: It's all about confidence. And is that not the definition of a CON game?...a scam?...a sting? The Fed's rate cuts, the Bush administrations tax cuts, the POG stomping that takes place nearly daily in NY, the everlasting optimism of talking heads on CNBC, all seem to be about boosting the confidence of the US consumer. Confidence is what's required to pry the money out of the pigeon's pocket.
Without the ongoing CON being foisted on the US consumer, I believe they would be locking up the value of their money (just as tightly as the Japanese)with an eye to the gathering Euro/Energy/ME-War storm clouds gathering. But everyone wants to believe that the booming party of the '90s can last forever....and so the CON game succeeds. To steal a reference from Black Blade, we are being conned into "dancing, singing and playing all summer".
In other words, we, the peasants, are being conned by a free dinner in the Titanic's ballroom while the first-class passengers are grabbing the lifeboats.
In fact, the signs pointing the way to lifeboats have all been taken down (they were a depressing distraction...you won't need them anyway). The only way to find a lifeboat these days is with the help of the crew (Trail Guide/Another). And the best-known lifeboat (gold) has been camouflaged (volumes of paper gold contracts to drive down LBMA fix).
OK, I'll drop the stupid analogies. What I want to know is who will end up controlling the gold mines. I don't care who owns them, just who controls them. And I want to know their allegiances....family, social ideology, religious belief. I want to know their agenda.

Anybody got a clue about who will wind up owning the vast majority of the gold? Generations of wealth, just waiting to be dug up for the right price?
simply me

PS..to Topaz & Pandagold: Try Windows ME (Millennium Edition). It's much more stable than earlier versions...although Win'95 was the best IMO. WinME fixes most of the stability problems of Win'98 and has some neat features. You can install the upgrade without affecting your current data files. With any Windows prduct, however, you're always going to be plagued with lock-ups and the "blue screen of death".
simply
simply
JMB
BUSH TAX CUT PUT ON HOLD

President Bush has promised to bring both Democrats and Republicans together, put all the facts on the table, and come up with a viable tax cut plan.
Well guess what....BUBBA and HILLARY STOLE THE TABLE.

Randy: If I don't hear from you pretty soon, you'll get more of this;)
Randy (@ The Tower)
Helping: JMB (02/06/01; 11:50 - usagold.com msg#: 47592)
http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=comex+deliveryThere you are, my good man. Thanks for the kind words behind the scenes.
R Powell
Delivery
Flatlander
Re: your question on delivery.
"A futures contract is simply an agreement for a seller to deliver a specified quantity of a particular grade of a commodity to a predetermined location on a certain date."
This from "How the Futures Markets Work".
It's been estimated that about 98% of these contracts are offset before delivery. That is what was sold is bought back and what was bought is sold. This offsetting cancels one contract. Delivery occurs when the buyer does not offset by a specified time and is then obligated to take delivery. JMB is reporting that Goldman Sacks is taking delivery of gold. Someone (Goldman's client) is accumulating physical gold. If that someone buys enough, the POG should rise. Speculators buy and sell contracts for profit, farmers or their co-ops deliver grains for delivery to people like General Mills in order to keep Wheaties and Corn Flakes on our breakfast table.
It would be interesting to find out WHO Goldman's client is and whether there are more orders for delivery.
The book mentioned above is a good starter book on the who, what, where, why and whens of the commodity markets.
Hope this helps
Rich
Pandagold
Simply me
Thanks for the tip on the windows problem. I'm ready to try anything.

I wish it was as easy to fix as answer you query about who owns (will own?) most of the gold. The same ones who have owned directly, indirectly, controlled it, you name it, for centuries. Sorry, ( and I truly am)but that's as far as I dare go. But then, you know all the time don't you. You're just kidding (smile)
R Powell
Cut and Paste
JMB
Just figured it out myself. Drag your curser over what is to be copied. This should highlight it.
RIGHT click the mouse to bring up instructions. Click on "cut".
Go to wherever you want to paste this information. RIGHT click again and ask your computer to "paste" by clicking on paste. Voila!
It is not recommended that you paste anything here posted by Brian Pascal from Kitco, just good gold information, good news is prefered.
Rich
Mr Gresham
Simply Me
Confidence. And at the end of a bubble, everyone is watching but one thing: Other People's Confidence. Not fundamentals, not technicals, not the news, not their own risk preference. As soon as they think OTHER people are losing confidence, and they realize that THEY are the "Greater Fools", down she goes... (they might as well take that free dinner?)

That points to the opposite side of the boat for the contrarian. The lifeboat is likely to be in a direction not many people are running, or if they are, they're doing it quietly and NOT inviting you along. You will probably experience despair in the pit of your stomach as you run off into the darkness, and then... around the corner... there it is, with a few passengers and crew motioning you and your family to get in... quickly.

(I think mine ownership is less of an issue, for awhile, though Cambior and Ashanti were instructive. Probably the same people who have maximum access to the already-existing 130,000 tonnes aboveground...)
Pandagold
Illegal?

I would still like to know why they (Windows) use the term - "You have committed an illegal act". At least, when an officer gives you a ticket, he tells you what your illegal (unlawful) act' has been. Windows leave's you to figure it out for yourself, and I can't. Is it talking about gold?

As Gates is supposed to be 'in silver', maybe I should try changing my interest. Or, maybe if he uses some of his released money on buying a gold mine, it will discontinue.

Come to think of it, wouldn't owning a producing gold mine be the best way for such as he to invest in gold. While it's in the ground it's safe - no storage charges. And if the mine just ticked over - no losses, he would still be on a good thing while waiting for the day. There are some good bargains at the moment, he could pick up for small change (to him)
JMB
R POWELL...N.M.
Rich, were you referring to the Kitco Flash, brian "W" pascal? You got a good laugh out of me on that one, so here's one back at you.

Thank you for the Cut and Paste instructions. Would you happen to have the instructions for webtv?

N.M.: Please refer to R POWELL's post to FLATLANDER. Don't hesitate to ask any questions (within reason) when you get the urge. There are many people here who will gladly share their knowledge. One other thing, BUY SOME REAL GOLD!

Horatio
Anglo et al Hedgeing
I don't see why anyone is suprised at anglo's hedgeing.
That strategy was and is a brilliant move since it started.When the perceived risk was confiscation and nationalization of the mines before Mandela took over what better way to get your wealth out of the ground quickly?
THINK ABOUT IT!You sell gold forward, get immediate cash,get the cash out of the country.This leaves the banks holding a mortgage on the mine.The Gumment has the mine ,but the bank owns it.The owners take out 10 years worth of wealth out of the country,this process is being speeded up because of the depreciating Rand.Hedge every last ounce if you can,and get the rand converted before it becomes worthless.The current gumment told them "if you close the mine we will confiscate it and redistribute it among the people!What did you expect the mine owners to do sit still and let the Gumment steal everything.Its easy to see why merging with an foreign mining company was tried ,but the Gumment put a stop to it.So continue selling forward and transfer cash out!!!
Its easy to see the future....S.African bankruptsy,no one left to mine the gold that knows how,and a worthless currency.
Simply Me
@Mr. Gresham & Pandagold
Of course, you are both right. I suppose, as one who's eyes have only recently opened, I still blink in disbelief and ask to be pinched to see if I'm still dreaming.
I think I'll go back to lurking and searching for awhile.
Meanwhile, Pandagold, try not to break any more OS traffic laws. ;)+<
simply
Simply Me
@Horatio
Just had to pop back in and thank you for that perceptive angle on goldmine hedging!
simply
beesting
The Image of Lady Justice...Gold as an investment v s Gold as a storage of wealth!
Lafisrap # 47593.
While reading your post I recieved the mental image of Lady Justice??....The blindfolded figure of a maiden trying to balance two Golden plates with known evidence to reach a conclusion.
Good post sir, using the current low price of Gold anyone that had invested in Gold in U.S. dollars since it's high of $880 per ounce would have lost dollars. A poor investment to be sure.......

But,my friend, did we close the case with all the evidence presented, or just part of the evidence?

Now, it's my understanding as a long time investor the phrase; "Timing is Everything" was not given it's proper weight measure in your scenario,Sir. All I can add here is some conjecture,math, and a personal story.

Personal story first:
In 1973 my wife and I were able to pay off the loan on a house we owned.It was an older house we had bought for $20,000 and rented to tenants. We later sold the house at a small profit.

Now lets see what would have happened in 1973 if I had taken my $20,000 and invested in physical Gold.
Gold was $35 per ounce.
If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebodys been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.

Now what if I had sold my 570 ounces of Gold when Gold was $850 per ounce, that equals...$484,500...I would say an exceptional investment... and that was over 20 years ago.

I'm only trying to prove the point timing is everything when it comes to investing.

Now, lets say a person is buying Gold for a different reason.
Statistics say 80% is used for jewelry, and we know there is a great markup in jewelry, so it seems people in the jewelry business make a good profit no matter what the "Spot" price.

But there is another reason people buy Gold and IMHO this is the reason USAGOLD puts up with our silly nonsense...That reason is "Wealth Preservation"!
Many people spend all their income on living expenses?
Now, say you would like to be different and have something to show besides your home and investments as you get older. Isn't untaxed(by the year)Gold the perfect vehicle for that? If a person sets aside say 10% of their monthly budget for...other use...and splits "other use" into 50% investing and 50% wealth preservation....Does that seem like a good long term plan for anybody?
I think we should put up another scale of Lady Justice and see how other other wealth preservation vehicles compare to GOLD! I think not only Goldhearts, but almost anyone that weighs all the facts would agree, Gold has historically been and still is the best vehicle for long term preservation of wealth!...Thanks for Reading...beesting.
Horatio
Gold will rise
Only when the S.African miners get all they can out of the country and the Gumment stops transfers of cash and assets from leaving the country will gold rise.They are going to hedge every last ounce they can.Draconian measures ,currensy controls,and restrictions on what people can take with them will speed the process.S.Africa is in a race to the bottom.
Why buy S.African stocks and put yourself in that position?Its not that the value isn't there,it a political problem!!!
SALMON
The Gold Business - plain and simple



I am just echoing many good comments on the subject. But it seems necessary to cover the same territory again, over and over, until mining executives get it right.
How many pharmaceutical companies spend billions of dollars on research and development and then turn around and sell their drugs below the cost of production?
That appears to be what is happening in the gold industry. They are spending billions of dollars looking for gold, then mining it and selling below the cost of production. They are continually reducing their resources and writing off their assets. Not a very astute business practice. I listen to every conference call of the major gold producers and what I hear is laughable. They continually congratulate themselves for the excellent job they are doing - losing shareholder value. And, how about those mining analysts? They act like mining engineers. They ask highly technical questions just to make themselves appear knowledgeable and important.

How about asking plain and simple questions like: How long are you planning to go on mining unprofitably?

Barrick and Co. like to present themselves as leader of the industry. Now there's a leader for you. If you combine the entire write off of their mining operations along with the derivatives they are presently writing off, you have a cool 2 billion dollar loss. Good eh? This is no doubt the reason their stock has been going south for the past five years. Now they are talking about producing 5 million oz a year of gold. Why? None of those fancy mining analysts asked them that question. Wouldn't it be better to just produce 2 million oz and be profitable? Now, that would be a good question. Plain and simple.
There are a lot of good posters on this forum. Let's gather resources and step up the pressure on the gold mining companies.



Randy (@ The Tower)
Something already seen by Centennial clients and subscribers at MK's Commentary & Review page
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.htmlExcerpt from South China Daily Post, 2/5/01

"In the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, television cameras focused on a distraught housewife as she scrabbled through the burnt-out rubble of her home. She pulled a cashbox from the charred wreckage and opened it. All the paper money inside had been burnt to a crisp. But a gold ingot was untouched by the flames. This powerful testimony to gold's indestructibility led to sales spiking upwards in Japan. Now a few investment professionals are whispering gold might be worth a look again - as a hedge against a potential earthquake brewing on global financial markets. . . . . A financial disaster, such as a US bank taking a big hit in the fallout from the California power crisis, would be an example of an event which could suddenly make gold a hot investment."

As a reminder, paper currency need not be physically destroyed to lose its value. It can more easily "rot invisibly within" from bad government and central bank policy. It may still look like a dollar, but man, it won't work as hard as a dollar should. Choose tangible assets to "lock in" the wealth of your past productivity...and gold is the most liquid of all such assets. Get you some.
Pandagold
Change of Government
Change of government. The 'peacemaker'(as in six shooter) has got in in Israel. Hold your breath
Belgian
Does Anglogold want to tell us something....?
Again 50% of Future production in the Hedging mill !
Why ? Why does Number One Goldproducer, wants us, to hear this message ? Is it to assure their shareholders, that future dividends, will be provided ? Naaahhhh, not really.
What do the Oppenheimers know, that we don't ? Do they know why POG is as low as it is and do they know for how long POG will remain low (or lower) ? I bet they know !

The strategy of selling, so called, marginal mines...and hedging for cash to buy long life high grade mines...is adding weight to a low (lower) POG vision.

May I suggest to Bill Murphy and GATA to have a tete � tete with Oppenheimer, somewhere in a quiet corner, at Capetown.
Ask him, why he is so damned sure that low POG is the result of no buying (investment) interest ! Why are hedgers so selfconfident in their vision of a low (very low) POG for the next 5 years ?
A much lower POG, results automatically in higher consumer demand. A continious lower POG is eliminating more and more
producer's offer. The offer/demand equation, becomes counterproductive in time for the hedged masses of gold.

Anonymous Experts (?) state that South American states are selling their goldreserves, for reasons of dollarisation.
They even sell us their expertise on the Euro as a negative for POG ! Do the Oppenheimers know much more about Central Banks intentions, regarding goldreserves ? Is Anglogold switching into survival mode ?
The Oppenheimer tentacles are very influencial. For this reason, I refuse to believe, that their behaviour is strictly limited to gold-production, as such. Selling 50% of total production into the next 5 years is "very" significant. The reason for this bolt decission is a fundamental one and not a pure organisationnal one !
A lot can happen into a 5 year future. Goldmasters don't need crystal balls. They simply know.
Gold Fields (number II) isn't (yet) hedging for the simple reason that their ore grades are high enough to remain flexible (profitable) for the time beeing. (Driefontein-Kloof). Imagine they are the next one, to come up with a hedging announcement ?

2.500 tons/year, are not decisive on POG in actual circumstances. But speculating or knowing for sure that POG will remain low for the next 5 years is raising fundamental questions. Additionnal hedging at 263$ level, can't impossibly be considered as an appropiate strategy. To me, it sounds more like a kryptic message ? Goldproducers, also know our pro gold arguments. And that's why I strongly suspect they know just that essential bit more than we do.

And that brings us back, again and again, ...to the central Banks as goldholders/leasers/sellers. The same pertinent (one and only) question on "the purpose" of the W.A. !!!???
Was it to fundate "confidence" (say price) in an intentionnal massive sale of 32.000 tons of gold ? Do goldproducers know, that CB's want to dispose it off ?
Why do CB's want to protect themselves, against themselves ?
If you don't have the intention to sell your goldreserves...why do you have to agree on a sell-limitation for the next 5 years ?????? Pure coincidence that ABX and AU are hedging massively into these same 5 years ? There is something fundamentally wrong in the whole logic of these actions.

Is it a coincidence that POG ('71) 34$ to 260$ ('oo) gives an historical average return of 6%/year ? I do not buy the simplicity of "investment", desinterest, stated, repeatedly by WGC and alikes ! There are too much sound reasons for investing in gold. There is investment enthousiasm (sept.'99-spike !). But each attempt is paralysed professionally. Carry trade or/and dollarprotection are doubtfull to argument POG's behaviour
as fundamental reasons for what is happening. There must be something more dramatic ? And I can't quess "what" !

Are we neglecting to investigate the intentions of the CB's, out of fear to be confronted with the 32.000 tons question ? If the goldmasters have the intention of selling more gold than generally expected...why don't they name goldbuyers to assure a flood of confidence and a higher price for their sales? The POG-800$ spike in 1980 didn't provoque a confidence crisis. On the contrary, I would say...it was the beginning of the greatest and longest expansion all times. So, what is so shocking on a POG rise ?
A minimum amount of free dollars, provoques such a high price-rise that instant profit taking would emerge. Espescially after a painfull 5 year abnormal decline.
There is such a tremendous amount of paper that can chase so little physical gold, that the same V-up-down move of 1980 would occur. The sooner it would happen, the more confident I am about this likely scenario. But if this event is artificially postponed...I suspect the odds are in favor of a much more dramatic impact.

What I am trying to say, or better to research, is that we are missing a vital practical fact. Simply because nothing seems what it is.

Does AU know of CB-gold, waiting to be sold and therefore wants to maintain a low POG to absorb the gold into jewelry by artificial (forced) high demand for reason of low (attractive-unresistable) price ?
Who is or can influence the CB's management of the people's goldreserves ? Is a dollar/yen/euro, intentionnal "new" balance in the making ? Without a classical role for gold ? Are there coordinative ties with underground gold holders and above ground gold holders ?
Can we find answers in South Africa ? (Bill ?) Or are we asking the wrong questions ?
What CBs stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities, should.... ????(AG)
Hommage to our Goldhero's, who are fighting and pushing for the answers ! Thanks !

Horatio
Israel
Just as it took a Democrat to cut welfare in order to be accepted and it took Republican to cut military spending (Bush Sr.).It will take the most strident right winger in Israel to make peace ,in order for it to be accepted by all.
This government (Sharon)is a signal that peace will be made.
Leigh
Bill Murphy
Chris Powell just e-mailed a message about Bill Murphy's travels. Tomorrow Bill will attend a breakfast for 130 South African business and political leaders. Pat Robertson, head of Christian Broadcasting Network, is scheduled to attend. Wouldn't it be GREAT if Bill convinced Pat Robertson about the gold conspiracy, and Pat went back to Virginia Beach and talked about it on his television station? Now, THERE'S a way to get Main Street buzzing about gold!
ORO
USAGOLD - off-topic posts - the 'flation debate
The ongoing ego contest on the matter of 'flation is distilling the principles and the lines of reasoning behind them. I am following it with great interest since people who have attached their identity to an argument would be most revealing of their core underlying principles and assumptions regarding the object of discussion/argument. Though many would be put off by the acrid atmosphere and the bits of fur flying, I think the complaints are misplaced in this regard.

BTW, after ignoring this book on my shelves for months, I am reading Virginia Postrel's "The Future and Its Enemies" and advise all to at least take a peak. Her reasoning sheds much light on this kind of debate, I would bet she would view its messiness as an indication of importance and of progress being made. Marvelous.
Pandagold
Horatio

And the price?
Tree in the Forest
Lafisrap, IronHead, JMB
Sir Lafisrap, in regards to your prediction list from FOA.

#1 Was that the dollar and gold would rise together. This has not happened...yet. The game is not over so we still have time for this, though I confess that I see the dollar collapsing when gold really pops.

#2 Was that the BIS would support gold at $280. I believe he intended to mean that they would do this before the Euro introduction which was January 1999. I think they did this. Of course after this the gold price collapsed and they did not support it. But keep in mind that once the Euro was in place, debt was being transfered from the $ to the Euro and this destroys dollars and creates Euros. The result: a strong dollar and weak Euro. This drove price of gold in dollars downward. And of course we still have the paper pushers going full steam which doesn't help things.

IronHead: Will definitely get 2 wheels when gold goes to the moon!

JMB: Thanks for the link.
Mr Gresham
Belgian, Horatio, Lafisrap
Belgian: There are so many sharp questions in your post. You keep turning the puzzle to look at it in new ways. We must read it several times, and you must engage in reviewing it more often, to help us keep the right questions before us.

"What do the Oppenheimers know". Everytime a question like this is asked (substitute Buffett, GS, Abdullah, Greenspan, etc etc) it goes through my mind: "They dagnabbity better well know! Whichever side of the situation they're on, they would make it their entrepreneurial/CEOish business to know. And if they didn't, they'd be sending out their best sleuths to find out, and some other hired sleuths to check up on those." They'd spend what it took to find out. They might be acting out some part of a different plan than we know about, but they would make sure they knew who the other players were and what were their games.

Didn't Another say the trail went through South Africa and Saudi Arabia?

Horatio: So you're saying the mines aren't short on Gold, so much as they're short on Gummints, right? That sounds like a reasonable bet under likely circumstances ahead.

Lafisrap: Add "Another" # to your list: the tying of Saudi oil and gold prices to equivalent low levels. (Which leaves the question of recent high oil price pointing to what change in that quiet deal? SA not satisfied with the CB/BB/mine paper they've gotten?)

Belgian: One post awhile ago (as I remember) asked me not to mention W.A. as an answer to its question. And yet it has been the major price spike in the past 7-10 years, and it happened in a few days. That meant that big players, not small goldbugs, were watching CB action closely. They, from closer vantagepoints than ours, were either correct, or deceived, in the significance of CB declarations. Which is it?

Are elephants now battling, and even though we blades of grass get trampled at times, we have found some sparkly MiracleGro dust that might aid in our growing back a little faster once the elephants are gone?
Tree in the Forest
All
I wanted to mention one more thing. We now have General Ariel Sharon as prime minister of Israel and General Colin Powell as US secretary of state. Sharon is a hawk and Powell has a bone to pick with Saddam Hussein. US troops are in Israel. War is now a foregone conclusion. IMHO these things are planned for the benefit of TPTB. Then the media does their thing to whip up passions, cover some Americans getting killed and voile. It's just a matter of when.
Horatio
Bankers
The S.African mine owners and the bankers made a deal to prevent confiscation of the mines.
Remember when BANKERS are jumping out of windows ,you might want to consider following them.There must be money to be made down there!
CoBra(too)
Mr. Kelvin Williams, the spokesman of AngloGold quoted ...
... recently (according to USAGOLD -Notable & Quotable)" As far as we're concerned the central banks issue is no longer an issue."

... In his recent speech at the Indaba Gold Conference and still stressed an overhang of gold-supply - and that may be why his company is adding another 3,5moz/p.a. to the market today. Makes sense? - for a hedge fund disguised as a gold producer, losing its pants?, you'd certainly have to come up with other plans to convince me - to take you seriously.

Whatever the reason, I still feel it's treason to their shareholders and then, they never understood the reality of their product!

- Horatio and Belgian came up with some interesting explanations, which I still don't buy, since I've heard equally good - is it political, cabalistic, in the sense of 'old Harry, wh"O", or new Woodoo in an era of Fiat Waterloo? - tales of Robin Hood. In this case it means, help the poor, old bullion banks to survive, while counting the (string-)beans, they strive as they ensure to put their credit knife into your means... cheers -cb2

PS: Ladies Leigh and Simply Me, thank you both for your always timely reminders on reality ... salutations







Horatio
Oil
How do you lower the price of oil? You support Sharon government as only the hawks can make peace.You get Gen. Powell to make peace with Hussein only the Political General (not the field General)can do this.The U.S. will help pay to rebuild Palistine with lower oil prices.Israel had to keep a state of war going in the mid-east,that way the U.S.had to stay engaged to protect its oil interest and at the same time help Israels security.Israel must be secure before U.S. oil supply will be secure.Things are never what they appear to be.IMHO
Mr Gresham
Fun at the Fed
http://www.satirewire.com/news/0101/fedrave.shtmlNext: "Make Love, Not Earnings Guidance"?
CoBra(too)
Gee! Mr. G. your sense of humour -
- Is, probably only surpassed by your sense of mediating! - Loved your FO-(pen)MC, behind "closed" doors - ya hear t'e snores to endorse another cut of the interest rate, coming too late ... and without remorse it was cut to the seams, without debate.

I see so many posters here, who fear the coming, breathtaking, awakening to reality - of a commodity hidden by the banality - of the only money of old - (where are you hiding ... -get you some- Ari?) - gold - ... cb2 -
Chris Powell
GATA appeals to South Africa with ad in national financial daily
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/644It's also a bit of a reply to a speech
by Anglogold's Kelvin Williams, rebuking
GATA, at the opening of the Indaba 2001
conference.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
ORO
Stocks, Lies, and Tickertape, Black Blade - new gold hedging
It should be noted that the sellers of the hedges are usually willing to do so due to 2 expectations on their part: that prices would rise, that in order to displace more gold from its holders (the lack of which has caused the threat of higher prices) is its replacement with credible gold supply contracts which can only be issued by miners.

I would venture to say that the situation is similar to the one in July 99, just before the last time that not enough gold was available for the pre Indian wedding season stock up period. April-May is the secondary peak consumption period, most likely there is insufficient supply. Having pushed shoved pulled and goaded all miners open to influence into producing gold commitments and having convinced speculators of the impending demise of gold, a mad scramble for more physical supply should occur soon, and results of the next political scramble for cover will be nothing like the intended result.

slingshot
Confidence,Getting The GOLD.
Good day To All.
The past several weeks I have read quite a few postings that sometimes I became slightly confused. Not to worry, adhering to my plan of acquisition of Gold keeps me from falling off the trail. Standing at the bottom of the ladder, looking up at those who have played the gold game for sometime, I can't help but wonder how many have passed up this forum because of the huge amount of information that must be absorbed to understand a small amount of the fundamentals of the market. Thus they have missed the chance of climbing the ladder to wealth. How do you get people to buy gold. They first must have the desire to buy and then you can teach them. Now that Gold is at a bargain price I have tried to talk to a couple of friends and the subject about gold was a flop! They must be in debt up to their ears. Now to the point of my post. I have confidence that I am making a great investment. Gold is at or near the low in years. If it goes lower I just buy more with my allotment.
Gold is backed by History. What do you think the Vietnam boat people took with them when they left Vietnam? When was the last time you heard of anyone turning down payment in Gold? When you take all the information in this forum and analyze it you have to admit that the percentage of making a profit in gold is greatly weighted to the positive.
Here is a small way of getting the Gold.

Put your pennies to work. The U.S. penny is zinc with a copper wash covering after 1982. Before that date they are full copper. I save 1981 and before because they are worth
2Cents and use 1982 and after to get the gold. This may take some time but think about all those pennies in jar doing nothing. You trade zinc/copper for gold. I managed to get two 1/10th this way. It was a big jar. Oh, yes, I did pick alot of pennies off the ground. Good exercise and sombody else help me pay for the gold.

From one post; $6000 an .oz? I will be happy with $350 and the rest is icing on the cake.

Slingshot

tedw
Gold and silver
http://www.usagold.comIm thinking seriously about exchanging some Kruggerands for some silver.

The question comes up what form of silver.Im thinking about buying a silver bag but also considering rounds. Maybe 1/2 and 1/2 is the way to go. What do you think?
Mr Gresham
In from the Cold: Provocateur (?)
If you can buy a house on a mortgage, or a motor vehicle on a loan or lease, why not Another real asset: gold? (Depending on your overall asset/liability, income/expense picture)
Flatlander
JMB and R Powell
Thanks for helping me understand the arcaine language! I just could not come up with what "stop" really meant. Now I know. (grin)
Horatio
Vietnam
I have many Vietnemese friends that told me it took a pound of gold to get passage on any ship out.The ships were overloaded rotted out and barely able to float yet still commanded 1 pound of gold.
Horatio
(No Subject)
AngloOf coarse Anglo is going to rebuke GATA ,GATA is rocking thier boat.Anglo wants as much time as possible to keep hedgeing and sending the money out of the country.Even if they mine at a loss ,what does it matter?anything is better than nothing.This will continue until the S.African Gumment finds a way to stop the hedgeing.Only they can do it.All this was caused by those do-gooders that wanted Mandela to confiscate the mines and the Gumment.The mine owners will hedge till the last ounce is sold from S.A.or someone does something to change the confiscation process.Thats what started this whole mess,now the law of unintended consequences takes over.Socialists are static thinkers,they think they can confiscate and nobody else will change thier actions.The result of this is the Rand will go to zero.They must continue to devalue to stay profitable,the owners must continue to hedge to get thier wealth out of the ground and leave the confiscators with a mine whose gold is owed to the banks.Theres more than one way to skin a cat.!
mhchuck
Anglo-Gold and Harmony Gold announce increased hedging.

Bill Murphy, former wide receiver for the Boston Patriots, and now chairman of the Gold Anti Trust Action Association Committee (GATA). Had taken GATA's game plan against the Hannibal Cannibals to Africa in an attempt to gain support of this leading gold producing nation. Murphy, in a move reminiscent of his playing days, was streaking across Africa, and had just broken into the clear and was about to receive the ball from the Africans, when he was intentionally "face masked" by one of the Hannibal defenders. Murphy's helmet was ripped from his head and he fell to the ground, then with the whole world watching, a 400 pound Hannibal linemen came over and kneed Murphy in the groin after he was down. No penalty was called on the play. GATA appealed the play to the replay booth that refused to overturn it despite video evidence that went against the Hannibals. Instead of GATA being charged with 1 timeout, all their timeouts were taken away so they couldn't challenge another call.

Murphy interviewed at halftime said, "What the Hannibal's don't realize is that sometimes it's not about winning and losing, but how you play the game. If you play with a focused mind, integrity, and heart, you expect good things to happen. Desire will win championships over brute force every time. The Hannibal's can crush our bodies, but they can't crush our spirit. And if at the end of the game, we look at the scoreboard and see that we have lost, but knowing we have played with integrity and fortitude, and that our loss was due to an injustice, then we are champions in our mind. Now let's go out and finish this game."

mhchuck
Peter Asher
beesting -- msg#: 47612

beesting: we need to complete the equation here. You said >>>>If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebody's been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.<<<<<

Factor in the rental value saved by those taxes and maintenance.
working-kirk
Gold and silver
It depends on how much you want to convert and how much money you set aside.

For me the best value is 90% us silver coins dated 1964 or before. (I have a personal prefence to the walking liberty
50 cent piece because I think personally they are best looking coins past or present but because a lot of worn you tend to get 715 ounces instead of 725. I think 90% silver is best because is it U.S. currency and so legal tender (However if you spent it at face value, you're a fool.) That mean when the silver explosion arrives it will be the most recognized form of silver. All you have to do is look at the date and the edge. With silver rounds, if you are going to trade with others, there will be a slight eduction process where you teach others. A bag of 90% silver average around $3,500. Like I said, I prefer walking liberty because while they are U.S. currency, they have been out of circulation for a whole and so not likely to be mistaken for quarters or dimes or the base metal coins in circulation and so you are not likely to spend them in a vending machine by accident.

After I've got three bags, Then I would consider Silver rounds. A bag of round consist of a thousand coin-like tokens and will cost around $5,000. And then GOLD!

Another thing, we are buying gold and silver as a hedge against the failure of fiat paper money but when that chaos hits how shall we determine value?

First, the relationship of gold to the paper money supply. It has been stated that inflation would price gold between
$1,000 an ounce to $25,000. How were those figures arrived at. The $1,000 an ounce would be if there was no manuplation in the gold market. $6,000 an ounce is arrived at taking in inflation and the manuplation. $25,000 an ounce is taking in The M3 money supply of paper, credit, and the constant expansion rate. And if somehow if we could figure out what the price of gold would be considering derivatives to available supply, I don't have the knowledge or information to do that but my guess is it would make the $25,000 per ounce look like chump change.

So we have a price for gold. Now for silver.

Currently, a dollar in 90% silver is $3.50 and in silver round $4.75 but to make it easier because I brought silver higher I average 4x for 90% and 5x for .999 bullion rounds.
But how about in the future, what would be a fair price for silver. Well, historically silver, has been between 10 to 20 that of gold. That is to say for 10 ounces of silver you could get 1 ounce of gold if silver was overpriced and historically the U.S. tried to maintence 20 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. But we know silver is currently underpriced to gold. Currently it takes 55 ounces of silver to price one ounce of gold assuming silver is 5.00 and ounce and gold $275 and ounce.

That means when gold reaches $1,000 an ounce, silver should be $18.00 an ounce. when it is $6,000 it should be $109 and when it is $25,000 it should be $454.00

But we are forgetting something. Silver is undervalued in its relationship to gold. So if it was to return to its historical values, an ounce of silver would be 1/10 to 1/20 the price of an ounce of silver. So if gold was selling at
$1,000 and ounce silver would be $50 to $100 and ounce. Remember silver was at these prices when the hunt Brothers tried to corner the market.

But there is one last thing. I been reading the works of Ted Butler and he is currently claiming there is less silver than gold. So when it explodes, there is the possiblability of silver selling for more than gold. I don't believe it is necessarily the case. Like when the Hunts tried to flood the market and silver was at $50.00 an ounce, silver came pouring out of the woodwork. But because of inflation, if and when the silver does come pouring out of the woodwork I believe the price of silver will stop at $50.00 or $100.00 and not drop this time around. Because of time, if you have gold, I would not exchange all my gold for silver. Besides, I think gold, especially Kruggerands have an advantage. The advantage is they have been out of favor so long, you can pretend it not gold just copper and keep it. I mentioned in an earlier post how I saw a drug dealer
get shaken down by the cops andthe cops tooks the paper money but allowed them to keep the gold. Hey, since not to many people recognize gold, if you are ever in a shakedown situation, you too may be able to pretend it is copper.

Last, the situation may be so chaos that you can't determine
the value of silver. In that case, I would price a 90% silver quarter as the price of a loaf of bread. A silver dollar or round as lunch money, a 1/10 gold as a pair of shoes. A 1/2 gold as a month'rent and a one ounce gold coin as month rent and all living expenses.

Hopes this help and I'm sure our hosts USAGOLD will be happy to help if you need historical information about the relationship of gold and silver.



tedw (02/06/01; 18:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47633)

> I'm thinking seriously about exchanging some Kruggerands > for some silver.

> The question comes up what form of silver.Im thinking > about buying a silver bag but also considering rounds.
> Maybe 1/2 and 1/2 is the way to go. What do you think?
Horatio
Confiscation
I used to be in the Fast Food business.I ran it profitably for 25 years.The parent company decided to confiscate my business .They wanted to take over all the Franchises in my city and make it a company town.To make a long story short I bled it dry while I fought them off.When they finally got what they wanted, the business was on its way out.Two years later they folded up and left town after they lost 6 million and completely destroyed what I built.This is whats happening in S.Africa IMHO.
Been there, done that.
The Gumment will get the mines with a BIG mortgage on it.All the gold in the ground will be owed to the banks.
They can't fight the banks,they can destroy the currency.
Goldfly
Leigh - Bill Murphy & Pat Robertson

I remember Pat R talking about Gold being real money at least 15 years ago. He made several of the points that are talked up on this forum about dollars NOT being money without openly saying that paper assets are poop.

My bet though is that this wouldn't make prime time. But I could be wrong, ya never know.....
goldfan
The decline and fall of economics?
Science says that if you want to be clear in your communications, you have to maintain a high signal to noise ratio and also to provide a lot of redundancy, saying the same thing a number of different ways. This all takes energy. As systems grow and become more complex, they require more enrgy input to maintain. Constant energy inputs lead to susceptibility to chaos dynamics. The system can longer manage its energies stably and will tend to implode in chaos.

So communication systems tend to deteriorate over time, to gain in probability, to have more entropy, more chaos and less discernible information (as opposed to data, which is not information until one can decipher some meaning from it).

I believe that all complex systems eventually fail, they return to simplicity. Entropy tends to increase and cannot be denied forever.

An economic system is held together by communication. What we have got is becoming increasingly unclear in its communications. This is obvious, else, my idea of hwat is going on, like that of a lot the Knights at this forum, would not be so at variance with most others in our society.

So I am wondering whether in fact the entire so-called science of economics and financial analysis, is going to just blow away, to repudiate fiat money, and return to a pure barter system involving gold or whatever as the medium of exchange. Keep double entry bookkeeping as a useful simple invention, but lose everything else. Something like what happened to the Roman system when the Huns invaded and the whole Roman complex disintegrated.(An oversimplification to make the point)

Definition: An economic system is good if it maintains stable prices over long periods of time.

Hypothesis: A good economic system is like an ecological system, in that neither can be maintained stable by egregious human intervention, and will keep themselves stable so long as humans don't try to manage them, but just be content to live and die with them as they make themselves to be.

Question: What are the measures that tell us an economic system is stable. Stable prices? Adequate but not too great a money supply? (How would we know this? )

Can we predict from the volatility of appropriate parameters that we are at a saddle point, leading to chaotic breakdown, system too complicated and under too much stress to contain its energies without crashing, to resurrect if it at all, in some form we know not? What are the predictive parameters of the present system?

Sure would welcome some thoughts on these questions.

Goldfan





goldfan
Re ORO 47535 Japan character and economics
re ORO (02/06/01; 01:30:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 47535)
Sierra Madre - character norms and economics

I've had fun perusing this post from ORO, breaking it down for analysis as follows:

Sure would like comments from ORO or anyone on this!!!

I've separated all ORO's statements into my idea of Systemic (S) government actions, and Data (or information) (D) and tried to imagine and comment on what this would be like under a pure gold money regime, no government intervention in markets, no government sponsored fiat money.

My premise is that the new regime would be incapable of the goverment sponsored malinvestment that leads to distortions, and would be self-adjusting towards stable prices.

* means I sure would like a comment from ORO on this one
Note Ive put most of the S statements at the end and collected all the D together below.

I've put an X in front of those which wouldn't exist under a no government, no government fiat regime. I comment individually on some.

XD... Japanese make work programs now running at over 20% of GDP, and

XD...having accumulated to 126% of GDP in government debt (ours is now 55%, having reached near 100% before),

D...we see the result in their sliding real trade surplus, >>adjusts itself automatically<<<

D...their still extremely high prices, >>>people are entitled to sell coffee or whatever, for what they can get<<<

*XS and D... and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.
>>> a source of malinvestment, consequent major boom and bust ??<<<

In short,


XD...Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters
are the source of the high prices and the declining excess in trade.


D...As a response to the high prices, people in Japan add to their savings rates, though consummate savers by tradition and because of their rather high age, >>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, as they want.<<<

D...it is because they are priced out of the market that they are saving so much more today than before.
>>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, as they want.<<<

*XD and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.

>>> how locked? Is it just the interest rate drag? the saved money could be spent by the government?? Good manipulation though, entice the people to save with high interest rate government bonds, pay them interest out of their own taxes.... another locus of malinvestment??<<<

XD...Furthermore, much of the paper in these accounts is still yielding very high rates relative to new paper.

XD...It was only last year that these accounts started to mature, and people now face the decision of what to do with the old money.

*D...The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust).
>>>who decided on these investments, the people or the government? I assume that in a pure gold money regime, people would get the info they needed from a trusted source, to make their own decisons.They might turn out to be bad investments, but couldn't be malinvestments, which can only occur in fiat regimes subject to government influence.<<<

D...Furthermore, the characteristic Japanese choice in response to low interest rates is to take the cash and stuff it in the mattress. At least one can be sure that the mattress won't go under, even if it may go up in smoke
>>>never wrong to put Au under the mattress!!!<<<

D...For the new hire in Japan, a late age marriage (their folks married early) and the baby bust make income for the talented very good. >>>people can pay what they like for talent or otherwise<<<

D...For the new blue collar and low level office worker, things are not so hot because where his predecessor's income improved from the economies of scale achieved with a growing adult population and growing export markets up to the 80s, he faces overstaffed production floors, offices, and few prospects of improvement.
>>>have to make some cutbacks, maybe change jobs!!<<<

D...The low management people are old and ageing, and have lost track of the markets, which has changed under them.
>>>and they can no longer keep the shop open, the hotshots down the street are getting all the business, time to retire, look under the mattress!!!<<<

X S and D...Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock.
>>>fewer and smaller shocks these days!!!<<<

XD...The downside has been the retention of non-viable businesses that would have to close anyway, consuming capital and keeping workers occupied in uneconomical jobs and preventing them from changing skills.
>> >malinvestment, big time!!<<<

XD...The other success, a very temporary one to be sure, has been the maintenance of low price inflation.
>> self adjusting now<<<

XD...Japan has increased money supply and debt asset supply (government debt) without causing higher prices


XD...The result has been a rather quiet price picture as Yen assets finance dollar and foreign assets (which allow us to buy Japan's exports) rather than go into the economy directly.


*XD...The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid

>>>I don't get how the people would worry about the future taxes needed to pay government debt, but maybe I misunderstand this point. Anyway, in a future without government intervention, the problem disappears. People can save or spend as they wish.<<<


D...Low income from investments is also pushing the huge Japanese baby boom generation to save more because they are expecting not to have sufficient income coming out of their investment portfolio at current rates,
>>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, for whatever reson they dream up<<<


D...and they have not considered anything but paper as investments since prices have yet to be cause for worry.
>>>at least the future purchasing power of the paper now is not subject to malinvestment distortions, evn if we guess wrong about its quality. On our own now, have to be smart about this stuff!!!<<<

*XD...Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days,
>>>who says this stuff will have any purchasing power when its needed?<<<

D...when a larger portion of Japanese labor will be occupied taking care of the elderly and will not be able to work in production>>>How it goes in life<<<

D...The "new people" will be less loyal to Japanese products, and tend to buy more independently, requiring less salesmanship. >>>good stuff!!<<<

D...This will change retailing in Japan and allow greater competition for consumer business as well as more competition for supply contracts.>>>More goods stuff!<<<

D...Most of all, it will put price higher on the agenda for the Japanese consumer.
>>maybe some will continue to save rather than spend, their choice<<<


Below is all the stuff that won't be there in the no fiat no government gold money regime !!!

S....When one looks at Japanese make work programs,
S and D... the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.

S...Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters

S...The government has priced labor out of exporter's employ by hiring people for make work projects,

S...while maintaining trade conditions favoring exports and resisting imports.

S...Maintaining seniority rules prevents companies from replacing these people with younger ones who are more attune to the times.

D and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.

S and D...Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock.

S...because they maintained their export surplus and not allowed much dishoarding of dollar assets.
S...The make work projects and the export drive
S...while make work programs are shut down, i.e. higher taxes

FWIW
Goldfan
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
working-kirk, holding silver vs. gold
I think technology will have usurped the utility of silver for small purchases. We now have very small electronic scales that can weigh to the grain. I think we may all become quite adroit at trimming those roosters or Libs for our small purchases!
beesting
Peter Asher # 47639....You are a Sharp one Peter...Big Smile.
Your post:
beesting: we need to complete the equation here. You said >>>>If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce
Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebody's been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.<<<<<
Factor in the rental value saved by those taxes and maintenance.

beesting:
Hi Peter,
Well at the time we sold the house we were getting $240 per month rent, which naturally would have gone way up by now, to keep up with local rental rates.
If we kept the rent at $240 per month at the end of the 28 year period it would be $84,000 collected in rental fees.Not a realistic number.

Soo, I'm going to take our $151,315 figure from above and divide by 28 years and it comes out to $5404 per year or an average monthly rental of about $450 per month. Which in my opinion over a 28 year period is a high figure because the house was not in a great location. Yes rents are higher now, but I'm trying to come up with a reasonable monthly rate over a 28 year period. Than if we subtract $200 per month for taxes,insurance, maintenance,travel at all hours and other expenses that comes out to $2400 per year or $56,000(might be a low figure) total for 28 years. So $151,316 - $56,000 gives us $95,316 profit over 28 years added into $90,000 present value of house = $185,316. However over the years the added income made us pay an extra $35,316 or $1261.29 average per year on our income tax return, so,$185,316 - $35,316 = $151,315 potential profit.

BUT...we're not really done yet, why did we decide to sell the house in the first place??
Answer: Continual and constant aggravation by constantly change-ing crazy tenants.
If we had kept the house I'm going to add in possible costs of the "Booby-Hatch"(personal possible medical expenses) or even our lives at $61,315 which brings us right back to our original figure of $90,000 current value of the house and as an extra bonus we still have most of our sanity...ha ha ha ha....I think....ha ha..Thanks for the math problem Peter...off to bed....Those in the Know,,,even some of us crazy ones are still buying Gold....beesting.
TEX
slingshot - Pennies from heaven (post 47632)
Duh....the light bulb finally came on in this dim skull of mine! Like a lot of other people, I have the habit of emptying my pocket change and throwing it in a container each day. Lots of "low value" metal hanging around. I'm going to gather it all up and trade it in for the real thing ASAP while the buying price is so low. Not being a big time investor, this will allow me a continual process to slowly accumulate the good stuff on a regular (but slow) basis. I think i may have seen a glimmer of light on the old trail tonight!
Journeyman
Nice work @goldfan msg#: 47644

Interesting and useful approach/method/analysis, GF! And great work you and Sir Peter have done in exposing your thinking as per ORO's observations.

Regards,
Journeyman
John Doe
@Goldfan
http://website.lineone.net/~marc.widdowson/Check out the above link, as it addresses the complexity question leading to societal decay.

As I recall, the author's reasoning was essentially something like: people put up with a lot of time-, energy-, and freedom-wasting junk for the sake of efficiency and just plain getting along, but at some critical point they throw up their hands and abandon the society for their own sanity and well-being. For example, suppose you had to travel further and further just to collect firewood (Aztec?), or you had to pay more and more taxes until you were better off being a slave than being a citizen (Rome?)...

In our modern context, suppose it eventually took four hours to commute each way to work due to crime or congestion, or gasoline for the commute cost $100 each way, or it cost $20,000 a year to heat and light one's home, or 80%+ of your income went to pay your various taxes each year, or you needed the government's approval to wed, have children, work, and plain live, or your job became so complicated and non-deterministic you couldn't do anything constructive at all no matter how much effort you expended, or our forced, non-market-oriented monetary system collapses in hyperinflation or crushing deflation due to gross mismanagement (or eventual mathematical certainty), or it finally dawns upon a critical mass of the population that the media is completely useless, disinformative, and manipulative. Any of these things could collapse more cohesive societies than our own.
ORO
goldfan - answers/comments
*XS and D... and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.
>>> a source of malinvestment, consequent major boom and bust ??<<<
ORO: Result of gov action to undo effects of bust that is the result of the prior boom.

*XD and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.
>>> how locked? Is it just the interest rate drag? the saved money could be spent by the government?? Good manipulation though, entice the people to save with high interest rate government bonds, pay them interest out of their own taxes.... another locus of malinvestment??<<<
ORO: Funds are in Postal Savings etc. that have set maturities. Penalties on early withdrawal prevent it from happening. You are right that it was a manipulation and that gov. had spent the funds and has committed to taxing (or printing) it back to the bond holders. Definitely a locus of malinvestment.

*D...The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust).
>>>who decided on these investments, the people or the government? I assume that in a pure gold money regime, people would get the info they needed from a trusted source, to make their own decisons. They might turn out to be bad investments, but couldn't be malinvestments, which can only occur in fiat regimes subject to government influence.<<<
ORO: They trusted banks and investment houses. Those, however, were taking cues from a consensus of a team of gov. and bankers (i.e. cartel, and a crowded trade). In a gold money regime it would be unlikely that such a situation would have formed, though Japanese tend to form crowded trades more extreme and broader because of the traditional tendency to seek consensus.

XD...The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid
>>>I don't get how the people would worry about the future taxes needed to pay government debt, but maybe I misunderstand this point. Anyway, in a future without government intervention, the problem disappears. People can save or spend as they wish.<<<
ORO: The main point is that the people were priced out of the market by competition for products from gov. spending, and gov. subsidized or supported export programs that kept prices high � too high for people to buy the stuff. As the 1999 sales tax imposed on them demonstrates, the people were correct in their expectation of future high taxes to cover the governments� debt expansion at the time.
The future without gov intervention needs to come from a present and past where gov. intervened. You need to get there from here. Not easy.

*XD...Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days,
>>>who says this stuff will have any purchasing power when its needed?<<<
ORO: "Exactically" said the caterpillar puffing on his houka.
It retains purchasing power because it is not being spent. When it is spent, the market will see it as the unwinding of a crowded trade and discount it just before it starts.
tg
THE FED STARTS TO USE UP ITS BULLETS:
http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htmpart of the above link

"The Japan scenario must surely be the nightmare scenario that secretly exorcises the Fed: a situation in which the saturation dynamics in high tech industries have become so deeply entrenched that the companies themselves prove impervious to improvement despite "the rapid and forceful response of monetary policy". Unlike the events of the 1930s, this is not lost in the sands of time, but very much a comparatively recent event well within the experience and recollection of a number of investment professionals. Yet curiously, no Wall Street strategist has yet drawn the ominous linkage. We, on the other hand, believe that the comparison is highly germane. Despite repeated cuts in interest rates, Japan's economy has proved curiously unresponsive even 10 years after the puncturing of its bubble. Whenever Japan is discussed it is always in the context of ineffective policy response after the fact: we get constant carping about the nation's "clueless", incompetent bureaucrats, those same bureaucrats who were once venerated for their long-term insights and planning throughout the post war period. We suspect a similar downgrade in the respective historic reputations of Messrs. Greenspan, Rubin and Summers lurks at some point in the future."
Black Blade
CATALYTIC GOLD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
http://www.acitravel.co.za/main.asp?conf_id=2GOLD, that most noble of all metals, is not traditionally renowned for having catalytic properties. That it has such properties at all is still news to many. However, what is really interesting is not that gold can be merely prepared in catalytically-active forms, but that such materials have unique and commercially attractive properties. In some instances catalytic gold seems to offer activity at unprecedented low temperatures, in others it offers the promise of greater selectivity. This is still a rather young topic - up until now many of the researchers and developers in this area did not even know about each other. The Catalytic Gold conference will, for the first time, bring together the worlds leading researchers in the field. The conference is more than just an academic get-together however - it is expected that it will also be attended by top delegates from the laboratories of many of the worlds larger chemical industries who, perhaps, may not say much but who are expected to listen carefully as the utility of these new materials unfolds. So the conference offers delegates a very effective way to work themselves into this new field technically and perhaps gain some useful strategic insights as well.

The excellent line-up of speakers, from leading institutions around the world, will be addressing topics from gold in the synthesis of fine chemicals, gold chemistry, catalytic gold in industrial processes, to the potential uses of gold in environmental remediation. These sessions, combined with an opportunity to meet with the speakers and other participants during our social programme, will ensure that you will return from Cape Town with new insights, new ideas, and new horizons. Pre and post conference tours as well as two post conference technical tour are available. A comprehensive accompanying persons programme is also available.

TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
G. Bond - Chairman (UK), M. Haruta (Japan), H. Kung (USA), D. Andreeva (Bulgaria), D.T. Thompson (UK), C. Corti (UK), P. Radcliffe (RSA), A. Vosloo (RSA), M.Cortie (RSA), J. Fletcher (RSA), R. Paul (RSA), S. Rule (RSA), A. Ramsey (RSA)

HOST INSTITUTES
World Gold Council, AngloGold, Catalysis Society of South Africa, Mintek.



Black Blade: Notice that Anglo is a sponsor of the Catalytic Gold Conference. It would be "interesting" if this technology became popular causing the POG to rise dramatically and therefore cause margin calls on Anglos hedge positions. Shades of Ashanti and Cambior. Just an "interesting" thought.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
S Africa's Harmony Secures Funding For Mine Acquisitions

CAPE TOWN (Dow Jones)--South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HGMCY) said Tuesday that it has secured the funding for the acquisition of AngloGold Ltd.'s (AU) Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines, and Australia's New Hampton Gold Fields Ltd. As part of the deal Harmony has arranged gold price protection for the first year of the financing commitments through the purchase of 1.0 million ounces of put options at a strike price of around ZAR64,000 ($1=ZAR7.8000) per kilogram, the company said a statement. It said this arrangement would protect Harmony from potential adverse movements in the gold price, whilst allowing the company to fully participate in any increase in the gold price.

Harmony is paying ZAR1.0 billion for Elandsrand and Deelkraal and has offered New Hampton shareholders 26.5 cents which gives the New Hampton deal a transaction value of A$54 million. The banks providing the finance include South Africa's ABSA Bank Ltd. and BOE Securities, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Citibank NA and J.P. Morgan PLC. J.P. Morgan is acting as international coordinator and book manager, while ABSA Bank Ltd. is acting as South African coordinator and book runner, Harmony said. Around 1050 GMT Harmony was trading 30 cents higher, or 0.9%, at ZAR35.50 on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa.


Black Blade: JP Morgan, I thought I smelled a rat! However, the picture isn't as bad as first thought as Harmony's hedges are only put options as opposed to forward sales favored by Hedge-Fund miners Anglo and Barrick.
Black Blade
Stranded Alaska natural gas waits for buyers


By Yereth Rosen


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Call it the Alaska pipe dream.

For years, government and business leaders have yearned for a pipeline to ship the North Slope's long-neglected natural gas to markets. It would be the biggest private project in Alaska since the trans-Alaska oil pipeline was built in the 1970s, creating thousands of construction jobs. It would also fatten Alaska's petroleum-based state treasury, providing an estimated $200 million to $400 million in steady annual income, according to the state Department of Revenue. And it would encourage other economic development by providing energy to isolated communities. Now, with prices spiraling upward, experts predicting future demand growth and supply shortages and pipeline technology improving, the long-discussed gas commercialization project finally appears on the verge of reality, Alaska leaders say. "After two decades of false starts and broken dreams, the economic and political stars are finally aligned in our favor. Natural gas is the fuel of the 21st century," Gov. Tony Knowles said in his state-of-the state address last month. The prospects seem serious enough that state economist Neal Fried in January received his first out-of-state job inquiry about it, from a Nebraska man seeking a welding position. Fried, a college student in Fairbanks during the 1970s oil-pipeline boom, said the gas talk reminds him of the past. "There's some feelings of deja vu about it -- not as strong, but they're there." Some say Alaska's next boom is inevitable because Prudhoe Bay and adjacent oil fields are swimming in natural gas. Proven reserves total 25 trillion cubic feet at Prudhoe and another 10 trillion in other fields -- more than a fifth of known national stores. Additional gas at already developed North Slope oil properties is believed to be at least 70 trillion cubic feet. No one has yet committed to buy the gas, however. It remains stranded on the North Slope, where it is pumped up through the tundra as a byproduct of crude production. Each day oil producers bring up about 8 billion cubic feet of gas, about the same as the national consumption of Japan or Canada. And each day they use the world's largest gas processing plant to re-inject almost all of it back into the earth, where it builds reservoir pressure and aids in future oil recovery.

'MORE DIFFICULT TO SHOVE THAT GAS BACK'

Producers have a growing incentive to do something else with the gas as the oil fields age and gas-to-oil ratios rise, said Matt Berman, a University of Alaska Anchorage economist. "It's getting more difficult to shove that gas back in." The producers say they are serious about selling the gas and commercialization plans have taken on a new urgency. "If it didn't feel different I don't think that we'd be spending 75 million bucks and putting 90 people to work on the project," said David MacDowell, external communications manager for a gas work group set up by major North Slope oil producers. The producers -- BP, Phillips and Exxon Mobil -- consider a pipeline delivering to the Lower 48 states to be the best chance to sell North Slope gas. They have predicted that a pipeline could be delivering gas by 2007 and that a pipeline to bring gas from the distant North Slope would cost $10 billion. Their work group last month solicited bids to plan and design the pipeline system, considering alternative routes. "Our focus right now is creating the most economically viable, safest delivery system possible," MacDowell said. Knowles and other Alaska politicians have endorsed a 2,000-mile (3,240-km) gas pipeline that would run south from Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks, then to Alberta along the route of the Alaska Highway. A similar project was planned and permitted in the 1970s but was set aside because of poor economics. Knowles last month introduced legislation to give tax incentives for such a pipeline and he has established a special multi-agency state office to provide what he called "one-stop permitting and right-of-way preparation." A competing project would run a pipeline east off the coast of the Beaufort Sea to the gas-rich Mackenzie River Delta in Canada's Northwest Territories, then south to Alberta. The so-called northern route would be shorter and possibly cheaper and has the blessing of the Northwest Territories government, which is seeking a way to market its own stranded Arctic gas. But it is opposed by Alaska and Yukon officials, whose lands would be bypassed, and environmentalists are leery of impacts offshore and on wild lands. "If a pipeline is going to happen it really should stay in an already existing corridor that's easily accessed and doesn't have the ice problem," said Debra Moore, Arctic coordinator for the Fairbanks-based Northern Alaska Environmental Center. Another project would run a pipeline parallel to the existing 800-mile (1,300-km) oil line to Valdez, then liquefy the natural gas for shipment by tanker vessel to Asia or the U.S. West Coast. Its chief promoter, Anchorage-based Yukon Pacific Corp., portrays it as the most beneficial to Alaskans.

'AL-CAN OF WORMS'

Yukon Pacific President Jeff Lowenfels dismissed Knowles' preferred route. "We call it the Al-Can of worms," he told state lawmakers, using the popular nickname for the Alaska Highway. Another project would employ new technology to convert natural gas to liquid synthetic crude, which could be shipped through the existing oil pipeline. But some say cheerful predictions of imminent gas commercialization are unwarranted. And consumer watchdogs are worried about state concessions being contemplated to encourage gas development. "We need to proceed very carefully to ensure that Alaskans truly benefit from their own resources. Alaskans cannot afford to be the victims of BP's or other oil companies' marketing manipulations," Jim Sykes of the Alaska Public Research Interest Group said after Knowles unveiled his legislation. Berman said recent gas price spikes may be making politicians too giddy about Alaska gas. "I would be very suspicious of anybody who thinks the current high prices are going to last," he said. There is a "virtually unlimited" amount of Middle Eastern natural gas, now being burned off, Berman said, adding it is only a matter of time before that gas is exported, in liquefied form, to the United States. "Alaska natural gas has to compete in terms of price with imported LNG, and it always has." The unfulfilled promise of North Slope gas is also noted by environmentalists, who argue it is absurd for the oil industry to push to exploit Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge when it already has access to such a huge gas resource. Former U.S. Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt, in a farewell address last month, cited the North Slope's gas when he criticized proponents of Arctic refuge oil drilling. "It seems to me that if those folks who are gearing up for this crusade and this fight are serious about something other than just an ideological assault on our environmental accomplishments," Babbitt said, "they might turn to the oil companies and say, 'Well, why don't you start with the 25 trillion cubic feet that you're sitting on?"'


Black Blade: NG is the fuel of the future as it meets the requirements outlined by the EPA's Clean Air Act. Canada is opposed to the project for no other reason than it would compete with their NG production in the NW territories. The environmentalists are just too powerful with their legions of lobbyists This NG could help mitigate the energy crisis a bit. However, the use of coal, oil and nuclear power would be a source of "cheap energy." It is too late to stop the inevitable energy shortage that will ultimately undermine the economy. We have already seen a tremendous slowdown in the economy with earnings warnings galore and increasing numbers of lay-offs. The Wall Street pundits claim that even though jobs are lost, many more are created. True, but how many "Burger-Flippers" do you really need? All the while, these pundits continue to harp on how everyone should just jump in and "Buy the Dips" and we have bottomed. They have been saying this for several months even while the DOW dipped, and the NASDAQ cratered in a traditional Bear Market. While the politicians bicker over exploring for hydrocarbons in ANWR, Reregulation of utilities, and suspension of the Clean Air Act, the time of economic collapse draws near.
ski
Spot Uranium Up Again
http://uxc.com/top_review.html


Last week I posted that uranium spot prices move like no other commodity to my knowledge. They only go in ONE direction for a considerable period of time and then in the other direction. No up and down movement from week to week. They move like a supertanker on the high seas.

I also stated that the downward movement in uranium prices finally turned last week as it had gone up fifteen cents per pound to $7.25 after going down for a couple of years.

This trend has been further confirmed this week. The supertanker has even picked up speed. Spot price is up twenty-five cents this week to $7.50. Also confirming this move is the fact that Cameco made a new 52 week high today.

I do not expect to mention uranium again on this site as uranium is not a precious metal therefore the subject is somewhat a little off base (unless someone wants to know more). The main reason that I have mentioned it is that uranium is used to make about 20% of the world's electricity and thus is a factor in "The Big Picture".

And lastly, some (Doug Casey, Jim Dines and others) have said that the supply and demand imbalance is more extreme than in ANY OTHER COMMODITY at present.
Black Blade
Speculation on AngloGold's True Motives
The AngloGold forward sales of 50% of their gold production is likely to put some pressure on gold prices. The question is does this 50% forward sales position of 3.5 million oz. Per year (17.5 million oz total) include their approximately 20% forward sold gold or is this in addition to the 20% forward sold gold? Could AngloGold be forward sold up to 70% of their next 5 years of production? Just about a week ago, they claimed that they saw upside potential in gold prices. Why the sudden change in sentiment? Unless they are building up a "War Chest" in order to make a run on smaller miners, possibly even unhedged miners such as Goldfields. Then what? Perhaps they intend to acquire unhedged miners and forward sell more gold. They also claim that they prefer to merge rather than acquire, however, their past performance where the truth is concerned makes one question the veracity of anything they say publicly.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Judge Orders Power Sales to California
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010206/fy.html
By Michael Kahn
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - With the plug about to be pulled on federally-ordered electric supplies to power-starved California, a U.S. District judge on Tuesday ordered one major generator to keep pumping energy to the state's 34 million consumers. Three others agreed to keep the lights on until at least a Wednesday court hearing. Judge Frank Damrell issued a temporary restraining order requiring Reliant Energy Services Inc. (NYSE:REI) to continue selling electricity to the California Independent System Operator (ISO), which manages the state's power grid. The ISO had sought a federal court order earlier on Tuesday to require four independent merchant energy companies to keep selling electricity to the state even though California's two biggest utilities are nearly bankrupt and cannot afford to buy supplies. The judge's order, however, will apply only to Reliant as generators Williams Cos. (NYSE:WMB), AES (NYSE:AES) and Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) agreed to keep supplying electricity at least until another court hearing on Wednesday afternoon. The order also came hours before federal orders mandating continued energy sales to California expire at midnight Pacific time (3 A.M.Eastern).

Meanwhile, Gov. Gray Davis announced that the Department of Water Resources -- transformed by emergency orders into California's main agent for state power purchases -- had secured its first long term energy contracts. ``I am very satisfied that this first round of proposals has met our expectations,'' David Freeman, whom Davis named last week to head up the contract negotiations, said in a news release. ``These power purchases are a critical first step as we begin to build a balanced portfolio of contracts.'' The maneuvering in Sacramento came as California struggled through its 22nd consecutive day of critically short energy supplies. While the ISO said a repeat of last month's rolling blackouts was unlikely, power reserves remained frighteningly low at just 1.5 percent of peak demand -- or about one tenth the reserve cushion most grid operators like to maintain.

REGULATORS SEEK COURT HELP

California's energy crisis, created by surging demand, spiraling wholesale prices and fallout from the state's failed 1996 power deregulation plan, has pushed the state's two largest utilities to the brink of bankruptcy. Pacific Gas and Electric Co., the utility subsidiary of San Francisco-based PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), and Southern California Edison, a unit of Rosemead, Calif.-based Edison International (NYSE:EIX), have racked up $12 billion in debt buying power at sky high spot market prices that, under the terms of deregulation, they cannot pass along to consumers. Their finances in tatters, both utilities have found themselves shunned by power suppliers who fear they will never be paid. With the prospect of more blackouts hitting the nation's richest and most populous state, the Clinton Administration last month ordered power suppliers to continue their sales to California -- an order which was reluctantly extended by the incoming Bush Administration. But that federal lifeline runs out at midnight on Tuesday and federal officials said there will be no further extension. A separate federal order requiring natural gas suppliers to keep doing business with California's utilities was also to expire at midnight. With the clock ticking, the ISO filed suit with U.S. District Court in Sacramento seeking to force the four power suppliers to honor ``participating generator agreements'' the ISO said committed them to maintaining power sales to California. While three of the generators voluntarily agreed to continue supplying power, all sided with Reliant's concerns about whether the ISO could pay for the power supplies. But Norma Formanek, an attorney for the ISO, said that without a court order to keep power flowing past midnight Tuesday, the energy crisis could spread. ``There could either be rotating blackouts or we could have something significantly less controlled and which could go beyond the borders of California,'' she told the court.

LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SIGNED

Davis, embroiled in the biggest economic and political crisis of his career, announced on Tuesday that efforts to stabilize the energy supply moved forward as the state inked its first long-term contracts for a total of about 5,000 megawatts for terms ranging from three to 10 years. One megawatt is the amount of electricity used at any given instant by about 1,000 homes. Under terms of a rescue package pushed through the state legislature last week, the Department of Water Resources will take up the role of energy buyer for California -- which, in turn, will issue up to $10 billion in bonds to cover the costs of the power purchases. Long-term contracts, which usually carry prices far lower than those found on the volatile spot market, are a key component of that plan, and California last month held its first ever auction to solicit bids. David Freeman, Davis' point man for the power purchases, said Tuesday that the state had agreed ``basic commercial terms of price, quantity and term for power contracts'', with initial deliveries of about 500 megawatts and subsequent contracts building to approximately 5,000 megawatts over the next couple of years. ``The deals we have completed are competitive,'' Freeman said. ``It is critical that the state build its portfolio incrementally.'' Davis, in moves over the past several days, has already seized long term contracts held by PG&E and Southern California Edison before they could be put up for sale to benefit the utilities' creditors -- securing a total of some 1,425 megawatts in continued energy supplies at relatively low, long-term prices.


Black Blade: None of these measures addresses the fundamental problems inherent with Kalifornia's so-called deregulation. There still aren't enough energy generating facilities and power is purchased from out of state. They are far from out of the woods on this issue. They merely are drawing on power from facilities out of state that in turn will put pressure on the other states should there be a need for power. This scenario will likely occur, as low water levels on the Columbia River hydroelectric system will be stressed. Low snow pack in the Sierras will also pressure Kalifornia's own hydroelectric facilities. Summer is usually the state's highest energy consumption period. Since Kalifornia is the world's sixth largest economy, this has some serious implications for the US economy as a whole. If they come to rely on judges� injunction orders in order to acquire energy, this will only contribute to the spread of the energy crisis to the western states region (the western energy grid). Part of the problem facing the Grasshoppers is that they did not completely deregulate and allow the Utes to acquire long-term contracts longer than 3 months. Now Kommissar Davis is doing exactly what he and his fellow Grasshoppers denied to the Utes. watch for this to continue as it plays out in the economic down-turn. They are in for some "Interesting Times." "And they danced, sang, and played all summer long�"

Black Blade
GOP Senators To Pitch Energy Bill
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010206/pl/energy_congress_1.html
By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican energy legislation to be introduced next week will focus on boosting clean coal technology, revitalizing the nuclear industry and finding new sources of oil and natural gas including drilling in an Arctic wildlife refuge, according to a draft of the bill. Sen. Frank Murkowski , R-Alaska, chairman of the committee that will take up the legislation, discussed the measure during an hour-long meeting Tuesday with Vice President Dick Cheney , who heads a presidential task force on energy. Murkowski said the meeting ``revolved around the realization that we have an energy crisis in this country'' and that ways must be found to produce more energy and rely less on oil imports. The legislation will outline a goal of cutting foreign oil imports from the current 56 percent to 50 percent by 2010, said Murkowski. It would require an annual report to Congress on progress toward meeting the goal. The Republican bill, parts of which will be met with stiff resistance from Democrats, is likely to be merged with a broad energy plan being developed at the White House. Cheney told senators that plan is expected to be completed in 45 to 60 days. But it is clear congressional Republicans and the White House are moving along parallel lines on the energy package, its importance magnified in recent weeks by the electricity supply problems in California and soaring natural gas prices nationwide. While the GOP legislation will include some measures aimed at boosting renewable energy sources and energy conservation its focus will be on boosting energy production.

``It's a blank check to the oil, gas and nuclear industry,'' said Erich Pica, an economic policy analyst for Friends of the Earth. Among the bill's most controversial provisions will be opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas development. Most Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans oppose drilling in the Alaska refuge which is viewed by environmentalists as a national treasure needing protection. President Bush has repeatedly called for developing the reserve's oil and gas resources, maintaining it can be done while protecting the environment. While some senators contend it could jeopardize the energy package's approval, Murkowski said that both Bush and Cheney are convinced the refuge drilling provision should be in the bill.

Despite the recent turmoil in the California electricity markets, the legislation does not attempt to address the broad question of electricity reliability, nor the national question of electricity deregulation. The draft legislation, however, calls for streamlining siting requirements on electric power plants, electricity transmission lines and natural gas pipelines. It also proposes:

-A string of tax incentives aimed at promoting clean coal technology and continued reliance of coal, which currently produces more than half of the nation's electricity.
-Tax breaks for oil and gas development, including for marginal producers and so-called ``stripper wells.''
-A reduction in royalty payments for deep-water oil and gas developments.
-New incentives, including federal payments, for increased power production from nuclear plants and to help design and develop a next-generation nuclear power plant.

As Bush proposed during his campaign, the legislation would require that some of the proceeds from oil and gas leases in the Arctic refuge be used for research and promotion of renewable energy sources. It also proposes a revival of tax credits to homeowners who use solar, wind or other renewable energy; ratchets up the fuel efficiency requirements for federal vehicle fleets and provides general tax credits for hybrid gas-electric motor vehicles.


Black Blade: Another take on a revitalized "Energy policy." Still, it could be a tough sell, as environmentalists gather their legions of lobbyists and lawyers to stop or slow down implementation. There is a severe energy crisis coming and it's in the cards. There is no stopping it now. The energy crisis will spur many to work toward a solution. If you have Y2K type supplies, then you're in good shape. Next, protect your portfolios with diversification into PM's, pay off debt where-ever possible, and hang on. In might appear as a slow-burn at first (maybe a year or two), and then it will likely hit hard with some economic hardships to follow. The "Bull Market" was fueled with "cheap energy", and that energy isn't going to be so cheap anymore.
Randy (@ The Tower)
High-grading some gold philosophies from yesterday's forum
A good way to start the day?Thanks beesting and slingshot for tolerating my use of excerpts upon your words. Let's get to it...

beesting (02/06/01; 14:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47612)
The Image of Lady Justice...Gold as an investment v s Gold as a storage of wealth!
...I recieved the mental image of Lady Justice??....The blindfolded figure of a maiden trying to balance two Golden plates with known evidence to reach a conclusion.

...using the current low price of Gold anyone that had invested in Gold in U.S. dollars since it's high of $880 per ounce would have lost dollars. A poor investment to be sure....... But, my friend, did we close the case with all the evidence presented, or just part of the evidence?

Now, it's my understanding as a long time investor the phrase; "Timing is Everything" was not given it's proper weight measure in [that] scenario...

...lets see what would have happened in 1973 if I had taken my $20,000 and invested in physical Gold. Gold was $35 per ounce. If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment..

Now what if I had sold my 570 ounces of Gold when Gold was $850 per ounce, that equals...$484,500...I would say an exceptional investment... and that was over 20 years ago.

I'm only trying to prove the point timing is everything when it comes to investing.

Now, lets say a person is buying Gold for a different reason. ... and IMHO this is the reason USAGOLD puts up with our silly nonsense...That reason is "Wealth Preservation"!

Many people spend all their income on living expenses?

Now, say you would like to be different and have something to show besides your home and investments as you get older. Isn't untaxed (by the year) Gold the perfect vehicle for that? If a person sets aside say 10% of their monthly budget for...other use...and splits "other use" into 50% investing and 50% wealth preservation.... Does that seem like a good long term plan for anybody?

I think we should put up another scale of Lady Justice and see how other other wealth preservation vehicles compare to GOLD! I think not only Goldhearts, but almost anyone that weighs all the facts would agree, Gold has historically been and still is the best vehicle for long term preservation of wealth!...Thanks for Reading...beesting.

- - - - - - A N D - - - - - - - - - - - -

slingshot (02/06/01; 18:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 47632)
Confidence, Getting The GOLD.
The past several weeks I have read quite a few postings that sometimes I became slightly confused. Not to worry, adhering to my plan of acquisition of Gold keeps me from falling off the trail.

Standing at the bottom of the ladder, looking up at those who have played the gold game for sometime, I can't help but wonder how many have passed up this forum because of the huge amount of information that must be absorbed to understand a small amount of the fundamentals of the market. Thus they have missed the chance of climbing the ladder to wealth. .... Now that Gold is at a bargain price I have tried to talk to a couple of friends and the subject about gold was a flop! They must be in debt up to their ears. Now to the point of my post. I have confidence that I am making a great investment. Gold is at or near the low in [22] years. If it goes lower I just buy more with my allotment.
- - - - - - -

Randy's comment: There are certain times to be found in economic history where gold offers more than preservation of wealth. We seem to be on the threshold of one of those times where gold's price is very attractive in the light of "troubling" monetary developments/conditions, setting the stage for potential real gains in purchasing power per ounce (measured against other goods and services not limited to simple currency gains.)

Have YOU yet established a personal strategy to regularly "get you some" in the course of these interesting times? Call Centennial today. That's what they're there for, it's all they do, and they're exceptionally good at it too.
Pandagold
GOLD

The chairman of Austrralia's largest gold mine - Normandy:-

" In our Annual Report, I made reference to accelerating 'new economy' uses in leading-edge medicine, science and technology. These uses are less well known
and as a consequence we have received requests for further information.

These high-tech applications are possible because gold offers a unique combination of properties. It is non-toxic and biologically benign, and one of the most efficient conductors of electricity. It is virtually indestructible, soft and easy to work, allowing it be drawn out into microscopic strands, whilst its density allows molecular-size particles to be seen under electron microscopes.

Whilst gold is critical to the operation of all modern electronics and telecommunications systems, its unique properties are being increasingly applied to many other areas of science and technology:

In medicine, coronary stents (tiny scaffolds used to prop open blood vessels once cleared during balloon angioplasty procedures) have been gold-coated to improve their visibility during surgery, and gold vapour lasers have been developed to selectively destroy cancerous cells without harming adjoining healthy cells. - Lightweight lasers using gold-plated mirrors have been developed for military use, enabling battlefield wounds to be sealed in the field. -

Scientists are attaching gold 'tags,' ranging in size down to 4 atoms, to proteins and other molecules, to learn how drugs, bacteria and viruses travel through the human body. - In environmental and forensic evaluation, an extremely sensitive laser-based detection system has been developed using gold to provide a signal more than a million times stronger than other metals for chemical investigation of minute amounts of materials.

There are also many less exotic but equally important uses, with car air bag deployment systems just one example. In the United States, dual air bags are now mandatory. Air bags, to be life-saving, must work flawlessly for the 15-year life of the car. Only gold-plated electrical contacts can be relied upon for resistance to corrosion in a hot and dirty environment which is subject to vibration.

He went to say

Every time another gold mine closes, and there have been four significant
closures in the past few months, and every time an exploration budget is
reduced or a team disbanded, we are one day closer to an upturn in
the gold price and a return to positive investment sentiment.
Robert J Champion de Crespigny Chairman and Chief Executive

Pandagold
GOLD

The chairman of Austrralia's largest gold mine - Normandy:-

" In our Annual Report, I made reference to accelerating 'new economy' uses in leading-edge medicine, science and technology. These uses are less well known
and as a consequence we have received requests for further information.

These high-tech applications are possible because gold offers a unique combination of properties. It is non-toxic and biologically benign, and one of the most efficient conductors of electricity. It is virtually indestructible, soft and easy to work, allowing it be drawn out into microscopic strands, whilst its density allows molecular-size particles to be seen under electron microscopes.

Whilst gold is critical to the operation of all modern electronics and telecommunications systems, its unique properties are being increasingly applied to many other areas of science and technology:

In medicine, coronary stents (tiny scaffolds used to prop open blood vessels once cleared during balloon angioplasty procedures) have been gold-coated to improve their visibility during surgery, and gold vapour lasers have been developed to selectively destroy cancerous cells without harming adjoining healthy cells. - Lightweight lasers using gold-plated mirrors have been developed for military use, enabling battlefield wounds to be sealed in the field. -

Scientists are attaching gold 'tags,' ranging in size down to 4 atoms, to proteins and other molecules, to learn how drugs, bacteria and viruses travel through the human body. - In environmental and forensic evaluation, an extremely sensitive laser-based detection system has been developed using gold to provide a signal more than a million times stronger than other metals for chemical investigation of minute amounts of materials.

There are also many less exotic but equally important uses, with car air bag deployment systems just one example. In the United States, dual air bags are now mandatory. Air bags, to be life-saving, must work flawlessly for the 15-year life of the car. Only gold-plated electrical contacts can be relied upon for resistance to corrosion in a hot and dirty environment which is subject to vibration.

He went to say

Every time another gold mine closes, and there have been four significant
closures in the past few months, and every time an exploration budget is
reduced or a team disbanded, we are one day closer to an upturn in
the gold price and a return to positive investment sentiment.
Robert J Champion de Crespigny Chairman and Chief Executive

Topaz
Horatio: Lafisrap
The Gold conundrum is definitely most confusing.
Barbaric relic or Wealth of ages, a black or white question - no half measures here eh?
Maybe, if we all share our basic reasons for gravitating to Gold together, (as Sir beesting has so ably demonstrated) we may ALL feel on more solid ground in these harrowing times.
My interest in PM's began in the mid 60's as a Teenager. As such coins were a much larger part of the "in-hand" currency and I remember feeling absolutely ripped off when our Silver coins were fazed out in preference for the junk of today.
The intervening 30 odd years found me living from hand-to-mouth, raising 3 kids, paying off a house etc and only in the mid 90's, on news that Australia had sold/leased a large chunk of their (OUR) Gold was my interest re-kindled.
Now Gold is Oz's THIRD LARGEST export earner, why - WHY would the Reserve Bank of Oz so blatantly act against it's own countries interests? (RBA was (one of) the first CB's to dishoard)
As an unelected body the RBA is akin to your FED - ie: our democratically elected officials have NOUGHT to do with RBA decision making, so they act idependantly of Gov't. D-uh!
At roughly the same time, as if by magic, the bulk of Oz Miners began forward selling Au. Throw into the mix the Seth Effrican "problem",the Gulf War, Anothers early efforts and the continually informative commentary found here - and one can plausably come to the following conclusion:-
The 80's run-up in POG threatened the very foundations of Global (fiat) finances as it became apparent certain parties were prepared to pay ANY price for Gold.
Enter Petrogold - as time passed, the security of large hoards of Bullion became suspect and a goodly amount of private gold was placed in secure storage (BB's) and paperised in the process - covered by CB sales/leases. (POG began it's steady decline)
These positions were feasable only if the (increased) Global production of Bullion outpaced demand and it DIDN'T!
Enter Miner Fwd's - so the miners got dragged into the act to cover (in Bullion) the defecit in production as it became apparent someone's tail(s) was/were/are exposed BIGTIME.
Any threat to the flow of Bullion (a-la the S/African situation) was quickly settled or/and (as Horatio pointed out) sold into.
Here and Now - POG $263, another rash of forward sales, Petrogold in accumulatiion mode, The Mid-East walking on eggshells "again", Enter the Dragon, say goodnight Buckaroo!......What goes around...etc!
As far as Another's thoughts go (oil-n-all) I feel his message is still as good as gold, Only when he (she) was cajoled into a western minded discussion did he offer narrow focused timelines pertaining to the future of POG etc. "time will prove all things" if I recall correctly.
Thanks for reading.
Topaz
ski
Just in case anyone else doesn't mention it (I'm off to bed) your commentary here is most welcome.
Just put GOLD in the posts now-n-then! ;-)
Canuck
Secret Gold Treaty
http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/main_page.htmLadies and Gentlemen,

I missed the boat on the discussions about David Guyatt's and of his book (above link).

I vaguely recall the discussions here on USAGOLD but I seem to remember Guyatt's theory regarding the cabal's plot to secure 'all' the gold.

Does anyone have any thoughts, quotes or perceptions before I purchase the book.

TIA,

Canuck.
Knallgold
Harmony
"..As part of the deal Harmony has arranged gold price protection for the first year of the financing commitments through the purchase of 1.0 million ounces of put options at a strike price of around ZAR64,000 ($1=ZAR7.8000) per kilogram, the company said a statement. It said this arrangement would protect Harmony from potential adverse movements in the gold price, whilst allowing the company to fully participate in any increase in the gold price..."

Fact is,HGMCY started to hedge.
Fact is,Harmony speculates now in the paper Gold market.
Fact is,you can lose your money with puts.Remember NEM in 99,bought puts before the big runup in the POG,"for protection".
NEM posted a loss later,reason:
"hedge related", they stated.

This speculation is just to kiss the cabals butt,not for the benefit of the mine.

Back to Harmony: some unnnamed analysts were running around the last weeks trumpeting "Harmony starts to hedge,forward sales etc."

Swanepoel denied that in a statement,he never would hedge,even if he had to abandon the deal.Buy only what you can afford.Haha.Why did he tell this?

Salami tactic?
Now we see the details "ah,just puts.only a year.not as bad as expected (forwards) etc"
But what comes next?As the shareholders have been prepared now?Someone wrote on GE how friendly AngloGold's management has been to their shareholders the last weeks.Sugarbread to lull short-before-exploding investors?

If the POG goes to zero as FOA said,then the puts were probably a good deal.

Another thought:is this ANGLOgold selling related to BOE stopping sales soon?

Pandagold
Canuck


Have not read this book, but next time I am in the bookshop, I will give it a quick scan - enough to tell me whether it is a 'genuine' revelation, or one that purports to be but is merely a smoke screen -which, regretably, most of them are - though they look, and are hyped as being expose
Canuck
@ Belgian
My previous post was 'spawned' from your 47617 yesterday.

Yes, things are not as they seem, we ARE missing something fundamentally wrong. With all of the 'negative' events that have passed us by in the last year I find it bizarre that gold has actually dropped?

IMHO, I find it weird that that gold/oil ratio, normally around 16/17 seems to be slipping away. Oil is a massive vehicle, not easily 'managed' and an argument exists that rising oil is a function of an 'overvalued' dollar (in the eyes of oil producers) and changes in 'swing share'. Gold, on the other hand, is a small, easily 'managed' commodity.

We can speculate on the need to have gold 'managed' but I feel that 'how' that is being accomplished is more relevant.
You have hit the nail on the head with your comment regarding WHO 'is buying'. The movement of gold, has become MORE secretive and LESS transparent in the last couple years. I have speculated before that the massive, (and it is really quite substantial) dishoarding of offical gold may be simply a scumbag ploy to publicly announce sales of CB gold only to have secret, ultra-secret purchases by other CB's. A colluded, pirated merry-go-round.

CB's were holders of some 70% of above ground only a generation ago. That number has fallen dramatically in the last few years, thus, we can debate with each other for an eternity but we cannot argue with arithmetic, SOMEONE is sitting on a huge pile. In another convoluted theory, the theory of power shifting from west to east perhaps China, S.A.?, M.E.?, is gobbling the gold, setting up the 'sting' to finally drive the stake into the 'western' hearts.

The key is to locate the 'purchasers'; I agree wholeheartedly with your post, we are banging our heads on the wrong tree.

If you think how you have thought, you will get what you have got.

Canuck.
Canuck
@ Panda
Thank you.

As a 'heads-up' there have been many a heated discussion on this forum in regards to Guyatt's book.

Looking forward to your reply.

Canuck
Black Blade
Goldfields Takeover?
http://www.businessreport.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20010206181006346C432903&set_id=60Analysts seem to agree that Hedge-Fund AngloGold and possibly Barrick are ready to make hostile takeover bid for Goldfields. Looks like the sharks are circling. Not a good sign.

- Black Blade
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
slingshot, post #47632, Putting Old Pennies to Work
This post being a purely hypothetical endeavor on my part:

Your post is reminescent of the $40/ounce silver days. A while back I did the same math (perhaps not correctly?) on the copper content of the pre 1982 pennies. At that time scrap copper/brass was being "purchased" at 73 cents per pound. My calculations yeilded that the breakeven point for the copper content of such pennies would be at $1.50 to 1.60 per pound. Also, even that penny can earn interest! (I am embarrassed to even admit that!)

All pennies can be useful (in a pinch) in the melt when casting brass. The post 1981 pennies could be used to supply zinc to a brass melt in a pinch.

Scrap copper in quantity can be had these days if you watch for it, in ways that will save your back! I too have a difficult time walking by even a penny on the ground. Somewhere deep inside the brain it must still register as a piece of chewing gum, 1/5 a pack of baseball cards, or 1/10 of a soda! And there is still that "interest" thing!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
ALL.........Scrap GOLD from?????
Someone posted a week or so back about the gold content in old junk computers. However the specifics were lacking (i.e. which components contained the gold). I hope you are still out there and can elaborate!

Is there a source that anyone can suggest for learning the industrial applications of gold, from the scrap gold standpoint? With it being so "cheap", now would be the time to round it up.

Imagine.....a SLATT faced double eagle.....guaranteed to go for a hefty premium over POG! USAGOLD, you will have first crack at them!
Knallgold
Proof of a theory
Selling paper (Anglo's forwards),buying physical (in the ground,from Goldfields).Sounds familiar,eh???
Journeyman
CNBC talks gold @ALL

Michelle Caruso Cabrara did spot on gold. Nailed the African miners hedging news, and less rigorous, the "India to buy less gold" angle. ~8:58AM

They've been covering gold sporadically lately. Today it seems to me, they went into a little more detail. And of course both stories were negative for POG.

Regards,
j.
Journeyman
One more entry @Randy, ALL

My wife found out about the "derogatory nick-name for gold" contest and came up with one herself.

She asked me if I'd enter it for her.

So here it is: pulp fiction

Regards,
journeyman

P.S. I have a file with all the entries. I don't quite know whtat to do with it. We could all vote, but the votes might clutter up the table round. Perhaps Randy might have some suggestions. I don't want to judge myself - - - there are so many good ones - - -
Journeyman
Question of The Day @ALL:
Why shouldn't CBs sell their gold?
For any who care to indulge:

From their own perspective, what is perhaps the main though often forgotten reason central bankers shouldn't sell their gold?

If I remember correctly, one or two posters here have already answered this question - - - and I suspect many more know.

Clearly the answer I'm looking for isn't, "Because it will lower the price of gold."

Regards,
journeyman
JMB
Goldman Sachs

Our new found friends were hit with 8 of the 39 Gold contracts issued today on the Comex.

All: How many Feb Gold contracts are still open on the Comex. TIA
Old Yeller
California:do you read me,come in California

Looks like Paul O'Neill may be our type of guy after all.

Quote from Feb.8 interview;

"I really don't understand why someone would take billions of dollars and give it to people who willfully created their own economic mess."

This refers to the Russian "problem" so deftly handled by Clinton's boys and the IMF;but tell me,is there really all that much difference?
JMB
Old Yeller
California here Old Yeller...we can hear ya 5x5 (or is it 4x4) loud 'n clear. The lights are still on and the coffee is almost ready and the tv is loo........
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Journeyman, Why CBs should not sell gold
I'll take a stab at it. Is it because the CBs have created far more paper gold than exists physical? When the house of cards falls, the physical gold in hand will skyrocket in terms of fiat currency?

Or is it the "gold is power" argument Pandagold is so fond of?
SHIFTY
Journeyman
Question of The Day credibility / credit ability

?????

$hifty
SHIFTY
Shots fired at White House
Shots fired at White House
Suspect Dead
Prez A - OK
Pandagold
Collectables

Is this a novel way Uncle Sam has come up with to get the Americans to save - they could produce another new coin every so often - two dollar, five dollar - how about a three dollar, now that really would be collectable?

Coin operation: Mint sees gold in Safeway Inc.
The Wall Street Journal - US Abstracts, Feb 7, 2001


The U.S. Mint is working frantically to increase the circulation of the 700m $1 coins it minted last year, almost 600m of which are being hoarded by collectors. To combat low circulation, the Mint has commissioned supermarket chain Safeway Inc. to distribute 1.6m of the gold coins to its customers as change. Although the number of coins to be released through the 1,500-store network seems comparatively slight, the Mint is betting that customers have hoarded all the coins they want ensuring that circulation will increase dramatically once the currency is made visible at one of the nation's largest food and drug retailers.

Abstracted from: The Wall St Journal

Tree in the Forest
JMB
Hi JMB. Comex gold:

Open interest (# of 100 oz. contracts)
Feb 422
Apr 90,734
June 17,296

Warehouse stocks (in oz.)
Eligible 91,475
Registered 1,683,855
Total 1,775,330

So about 10.8 million oz. saught, only 1.8 million oz. available. What does this say about what might happen at the end of April? What we need now is stoppers. Sorry...I can't get myself to cheer for Goldman Sachs!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Pandagold, "Collector hoarding" of new "gold" dollar
What a miserable bunch of BS! The truth about that coin was not told. First off it is a "gold tone" coin. It is also too close to the size of the quarter, something the mint still didn't get right after the Susan B. Anthony fiasco. Using a dollar coin for cash registers and the older vending machines hasn't sold the business community on this coin either. The lessons not learned by the mint still continue with the forcing down our throats of yet another coin steeped in political correctness. The Anthony dollar was an attempt at mollifying the pro Equal Rights Amendment crowd in the late '70s. The current Sacagewea(sp?) dollar is another overt attempt at political correctness.

The coin is not popular with coin collectors. IMHO it is a ugly coin and the concept of a gold tone coin is insulting if not infuriating! Anyone can get as many as they want from any bank, just request it, since the banks will not order them as they are not at all in demand for circulation. The lie of the collector hoarding of this coin is too transparent.

This type of pandering is best left to the USPS! If our coinage is further sullied in the future by the issuance of a Bill & Hill, I'll be one of the first in line to get that coin in its rightful place.....on the tracks of the next approaching locomotive!
OverHerd
SLaTT
Why is it always attack, attack, attack. Is it possible to disagree politely?
As I read the post it was the WSJ that called the coins golden.
Back to lurking
Joe
IronHead
Topaz - Ozzy Eco Sentiment? RE:your #47662
Goodday Sir Topaz - It would be of interest to know the general Aussie's sentiment towards the ecological effect of gold mining. With an ever increasing closure of mines, both silver and gold, the availability of said materials are certainly not going to be "growing" to meet continuing demand. As Sir Pandagold mentioned in his #47661 post regarding Normandy mines, four additional Aussie mines have been recently been closed, that depending upon public sentiment might not be re-opened?

The question of ecological impact and the psychology of the general populace has been extremely germane to the mining industry in my direct neck of the woods, with the proposed Chesaw mine in North Central Washington a good example of the environmental lobby against mining and the subsequent impact to Battle Mountain. The silver mines shut down in nearby Idaho also will have a possible uphill battle from the environmental front before coming back on line.

I am not in the mining industry, but think it safe to say that a mine is not simply re-opened or re-funded at a moments notice. With what I see as a concerted effort to monopolize the mining industry by certain Hannibals, first driving out the smaller less capable mines, then forcing into servitude other larger more profitable mines through the strong arm of "helpful" hedging, we arrive at the perfect one stop shop - "the company store".

With the media in one pocket and the environmental camp in the other, who's to say this is not a really grande scheme?

Would greatly appreciate any thougts you might have in this regard.

Salutations
IronHead
JMB
Tree In The Forest
Those "nice" things I say about Goldman Sachs are said with tongue in cheek, I hope the bastards go broke!:)

Thanks for the O.I. info re the 422 Feb Gold contracts still open. If GS runs true to form they should stop about 100 to 150 of those 422....IF they do that, I have to assume that they have turned bullish on Gold. (Keep in mind that I have no idea what I'm doing, I'm just guessing).

The Dow and Duck are slipping, the Buck is vulnerable, Gold is trying to catch a bid, Murphy is in South Africa raising hell, a kid took a shot at the White House (maybe), they could turn off my lights any moment (If anyone thinks that business is going to expand in California they had better quit smoking pot because their judgement is impaired), as Randy has pointed out the Fed is pumping out "funny money" at an astounding rate, and now the evil Goldman Sachs Corp. is taking delivery of Gold. I think we're on the right track.

Say Tree, if you could keep the Feb. O.I. figure coming until it goes to zero, I'd sure appreciate it. Many thanks.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
OverHerd, I am sorry if my post was not clear to you
I was not attacking Pandagold! I am certain he took no offense to my registering my opinion since he posted it on an open forum. My post was in response to the content of the article. If that was not clear to you then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

The article was in effect a press release for the US mint to try to move a whole lot of unwanted "gold tone" coins. If you live in the US, I would like to know if your experience with the new dollar coin has been different? It is a complete bust in commerce everywhere I have traveled.
beesting
Why shouldn't CB's sell their Gold?
Hope This is not too Lengthy.There are 2 ways to look at this question. One way is from a CB's perspective, the other way is from a striving to be Sovereign individuals perspective.Hopefully the one long answer will cover both.
I base my conclusions from the video "The Money Masters" a very educational film about the history of banking.

Short answer from Thomas Jefferson,"He who controls the money supply controls the people!"

The cartel of worldwide Central Banks has achieved almost total control of the worlds money. How did they do this?
By first gathering as much of the real money(Gold)into their vaults.How did they do that? Don't know about the rest of the world, but in the U.S. (a long time Gold producing nation) in 1933 President Roosevelt by "emergency executive order" made it illegal for the people to trade in Gold, and at the same time traded Federal Reserve issued notes(backed only by taxpayer collateral...future goods and services) to the banks nationwide in exchange for the Gold on hand.
((beesting comment, paper for Gold, What a Scam!))

Before this action and after the 1929 stock market crash the Federal Reserve(C.B.)took 3/4 of the "money" out of circulation.Where did the money go?((The video says much of it went overseas as the "Big Players" sold U.S. produced goods, for GOLD) How did they do this, and why did they do this?
The Why First:
It was a set up! If the Gold wasn't taken out of circulation people would have used what we call "The Barter System" among themselves and used Gold and silver in return for goods and services(without depending on Gvt. or Federal Reserve money at all), that's what the founding fathers specified in the U.S. Constitution!(A sovereign Nation of Sovereign Indivduals using Gold and Silver as a medium of exchange.)
Small stock investors lost their "Shirts"(including my Grandfather) while the "Big"(read super wealthy,good old boys)players, who were warned ahead of time about the crash siezed control of the industries and most large production facilities in the U.S., this went on up to and after WWII, when Americans spurred on by the war effort started out producing the rest of the war torn world.

"Why shouldn't the CB's sell thier Gold?

Because thats how "The Big Players" settle their accounts when they trade at the international level! The privately owned "CB's" are owned by "The Big Players!"

For those that don't know, the BIS(controller of all the CB's) values the U.S. dollar in Gold. 1 Gold Franc =$208. U.S. dollars.

Is the situation hopeless? (((NOT AT ALL!!!)))

Once the people figure out how to get "The Money Supply"((READ GOLD)) back as a medium of exchange among themselves they will have a chance to regain their Soveriegnty....IMHO!(Read Sir Aristotles 5 part discussion on using Gold as money at the top of the page, and lets discuss it some more!) And, I believe one way has already been started, on Feb.6,2001 which USAGOLD knows about, and hopefully will implement in the near future....I know I'm interested.....Thanks for Reading...Those in the Know are Buying Gold....Please remember I'm only a messenger, not the creator of known facts....beesting.




RossL
JMB, Tree I.T.F.

I am interested in an analysis of where the Feb. COMEX gold is going... I'm wondering how it is affecting the registered and eligible amounts at the warehouses, and if gold is entering or leaving the warehouses over the last few weeks. Does anyone have a source for these numbers for the last month or so?
Gandalf the White
More on JMB's Question !
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/quickquote?+=gc%2C2JMB (2/7/2001; 8:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 47676)
Goldman Sachs
Our new found friends were hit with 8 of the 39 Gold contracts issued today on the Comex.
All: How many Feb Gold contracts are still open on the Comex. TIA
----
Check out the LINK !
Looks as if 150 contracts still existed on the FEB contract as of yesterday.
---
<;-)

IronHead
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape - The Grande Illusion - RE:your #47684
Sir SL&TT - Nothing comes by chance or cosmic big-bang, especially when it involves the logistics of developing the phsychology of the masses to accept a concept.

Don't you find it serendipitously fascinating that [we] are being led to this new *gold* coin? For what reason??

I think Sir Journeyman would call this "playing into our hand" - and hopefully he will correct my usage, as "not" a poker player I be.

Gold - hard to fake. [but watch for those plated Pandas]

Salutations
IronHead
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Pandagold, American savings?


You can be assured that Uncle Sam is not trying to increase the rate of savings of the average citizen. Our culture has become one of spending at any cost. Thrift is a long forgotten practice. If you do not have the funds on hand there is a never ending line of easy credit for the taking. With the rate of taxation ever increasing Uncle Sam even taxes our interest income from a savings account!

The ignorance of our people regarding the monetary system is sadly nearly universal. The outright attack on gold from many fronts over the last 30 years has been extremely successful. I would be willing to bet if US citizens at random were given the opportunity to take for free $264 in US currency or one ounce of gold.....nine out of ten would take the $$. It is very sad.

beesting
Here is Another Bizarre Thought!
Why doesn't the U.S. pay off the National Debt or sell their Gold publicly?

Answer; The U.S. Federal reserve holds the 6.5 trillion and Gold as a show of "Collateral" to possibly..."""Avoid a Hostile Take over.""" How many of the Worlds Bankers would just love to collect the Wealth of The United States of America?????...beesting.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
IronHead, ....."Gold Tone" coin conditioning?
Are you referring to increasing the citizens acceptance over time to real gold in coinage? If so, then that would make me a happy convert for the Sacagewea(sp?) dollar....but only if it is at least gold plated!

I think the issuance of a gold tone dollar was more of a cheap ploy to try to generate greater usage of the coin than the Anthony dollar.

Someone posted recently about adding gold threads into the dollar bills, I'd be grateful for any ploy to get gold in our currency so it will truly hold its value, and hopefully change public perception as a result.
IronHead
beesting - NOT So Bizzare Thought RE:your #47694
Sir Beesting - You've hit the nail on the head, and my answer to Sir Journeyman's question of "why Central Banks should not sell gold", takes the oppsosite tact, that indeed they should sell gold, and all of it, such that we as sovereign individuals can empower ouselves to trade and commerce freely amongst ourselves, and be "free" of their manipulations and usury.

But sell it they won't, with their holding and apparent accumulation, along with the Saudi's, Asian's, etc. etc. etc., should be an EMP (electro magnetic pulse) in our fuzzy little cortex's, TO GET SOME, MORE!!
Simply Me
@SLATT RE:The Brassy Lassy
Now THIS I know about. Sacagawea Dollar is total bust in commerce. When they first came out collectors (mostly new collectors who started a State Quarter collection) bought up rolls and BU Sacs and put them away (how many? who knows.) The Proof Sac. Dollar was very popular, too, when it first appeared. The collecting craze is done now, however. Now, if you try to give someone a Sac. Dollar in change, they look at you like you're trying to hand them a spider!

There was some discussion on this forum about the motives and purpose of introducing the Sac. Dollar. One of the best arguments IMO, was that the U.S. Treasury gets the profit from coinage, whereas only the Fed profits from printing the paper money. I do hope I'm relating that point right....maybe someone who knows that subject better can elaborate or correct the statement, as need be.

Just a thought, though....Does the Fed increase it's profits in any significant way by putting more currencey into circulation?

simply
Randy (@ The Tower)
Fed's open market operations today added $5.490 billion to banking reserves
Driven by need to grease the wheels...the fed funds market was near target, and the these were not overnight repos--they were 15-day agreements.

Don't you just love the slosh of currency as it flows past your ankles?
Tree in the Forest
JMB, Gandalf
Interesting that Comex gold and Futuresource numbers don't jibe. I'll check this out again tomorrow.
Randy (@ The Tower)
Simply me...interesting comments about the Treasury and profits
Could you attempt to elaborate a bit on what your thoughts are regarding the meaning of the word "profit" when it comes to the Treasury? Loosely put, I always saw it simply faced with the task to balance (or just keep) the books of the federal government -- both "non profit" institutions. (And that is not to suggest that there are not "benefits" to be redistributed to those in their employ, but the source and nature of those benefits is yet another matter for discussion.)
JMB
Gandalf the White
"I see, I see.", said the blind man. If it was a snake, it would have bit me. Thanks

Say, that's a very interesting name you have. Maybe a small explanation for your fans.
Sierra Madre
Sacagawea Dollar....
The reason behind the Sacagawea Dollar is that the money supply is reaching such stratospheric heights that it is becoming a real burden to print ever greater numbers of dollar bills. The bills only last about 3/4 months (?), maybe less, before they must be replaced.

The Sacagawea Dollar is here to stay, like it or not. In a couple of years, at most, you won't find dollar bills any more. They won't be printed anymore. You'll have to take the coins, there won't be anything else.

Later, the same thing will happen with five and ten dollar bills. You'll have coins.

The shape of the coins will vary; the dollar coin will eventually become about the size of a dime.

Such is inflation of the money supply. It's quite customary in the "third world". You'll just have to get used to it.

Belgian
Central Banks and Gold :
Interesting, how little is known (publicised) about the actual purpose of Gold, for CBs. What is the meaning of that childfist with 8.000 tons of Gold for an immense flood of world US$s ? If the dollar-masters would attach any significant importance at Gold...they would have been accumulating much more of it instead of decreasing the initial ('71) amount, as is done with other strategic tangables (Ag etc..). In the not so distant past, Gold-reserves served as a public confidence of last resort, for masking the idiocy of relentless credit creation and artificial expansion. The absolute silence about gold is making its confidence role obsolete for the broad public.
Governments are sucked into the currency arena and have become speculators. The gold producers must know this and are scared to death that their goldmarket could implode.
They are forced to ignore some kind of Gold-Drama in order to save their skin. The WA came to their rescue. POG was diving at increasing speed. CB's invented the win-win hocus pocus. And the big gold-investors believed for a second that the CBs had changed their mind, not to sell it all, at once. Anglogold understood the message and adapted swiftly.

France, Italy and Germany, want us to believe they still rely on their goldreserve. But, why wasn't this argumented in extenso (price-supportive)? Is the global gold-world, too small and elitarian, that it doesn't deserve public attention anymore ? Is China the biggest secret buyer ? Is it a coincidence that Harmony ships its gold directly to China ?
Is it a coincidence that Japanse, for the first time ever, intends to acquire a hefty 21% stake in Harmony ? No it isn't. South Africa was and still is very active in those regions. We can only speculate on China's reasons to focus its attention(opening) on gold so "suddenly". Is there a strategic purpose or is it just plain vanilla jewelry business ?

What could be the main reason for CB's to sell gold ?
- they just want to get dollarized and use the handfull of gold-reserves, to help make it happen ?
- they had too much of it and haven't any clue as what to do with it ? (Belgium-Netherlands-Switzerland-UK)
- they prefer to play the modern game of currency-waving between US$-Euro-Yen ? Mouse-Click - it, money !

Is 32.000 tons of gold a sufficient amount of volume to activate (move-influence) a currency bloc ?
Are there any considerations on this 32.000 tons gold at all ? Is there an artificial silence, for not rocking POG to violently ? Not a single academic study on the topic of CB's and gold ! Unbelievable ! Economy students...wheeeeeere are you ?

Isn't it very, very, strange that the Buffet's and Gate's or Sorosses, have all choosen silver ???????? True or false ? Why is Anglogold trying to convince us that we are wrong with our conspiracy/manipulation theories ?
Is it a polite way to say : it's the CBs overhang stupido's ? Shut up and don't scare the gold-accumulators with your pot-stirring !?

Anglogold, only focusses on jewelry and not investment for its marketing initiatives. Do they consider gold "out" as "investment" ? Is jewelry the China approach ? India / ME, replacer ?

Are we confusing the POG-Manipulation with an orderly jewelrysation of CB gold ? Is each central bank on its own...or are there agreements between gold holders and goldsellers (other than WA)? What is the logic of selling so called excesses of goldreserves and keeping a much smaller amount in the vaults ?
But, if CBs, have the intention to sell more gold...why didn't they manage a POG increase, together with their producer allies ? Increase the lease-rate and whoops... off it goes. But does Anglogold want to share the goldmarket with other small pirates ? HaHaaaaaaaa.

I force myself to keep an open mind towards this 5 year POG-anomaly. It is not circumstantial ! Anglogold (Anglo American), not the South African government, must be an important "actor" and not a simple spectator, in the POG mystery.
Because Barrick is to be introduced in SA, rather than Franco Nevada ! Guess who is still in charge in SA. ? And always has been. Fundamental differences between Afrikaner(GOLD) and Anglo-Saxons(AU)! Still alive and kicking.
BTW, GOLD got a 7$ value as take over. IMO, there will be no take over but a merge (shareswap). 210 + 120 tons yearly
empowerment. (swing-producer)

Fact remains that the 30.000/32.000 tons of CB-gold hasn't officially increased. Does the WGC-facade knows, where the remaining gold is stored (if any)? How come, that the Fort Knox enigma is still unresolved ? I do feel so ridiculous, not being able to answer that simple question as a gold-phile. Not the only unanswered question of course.
If goldproducers would engage in media-initiatives to lift the price of their commodity...they would find plenty of confidence building stories to do so. Time out for playing secrecy games and artificial smoke screen acts . Another 50.000 tons of underground gold is at stake (golden arches). The reason why they just keep trying to adjust(hedging-consolidations-etc) on the lowering POG, must be an argument that something more fundamental is happening. I refuse to believe that world-gold-producers are infantiles. And Anglogold in particular.
They are not the prototype of Don Quichote. (cfr. De Beers cartel surviving for years)

What is the most pragmatic attitude towards this ongoing gold-enigma : accusing the supposed manipulators or trying to understand what and why this anomaly is happening ?
Answer : both + steady accumulation of physical gold, of course.
Disclaimer:I own gold and intend to accumulate progressively and steadyly.

POG doesn't react or anticipates nothing for the time being.
On the contrary...its behaviour is contradictionnal.
Has nothing to do with offer/demand balance or imbalance.
Gold-movers (pricemomentum-initiators) are extremely well informed and don't suffer from gold-paralysis. They do not "organise" an occasionnal (spontanious) POG ride anymore. They need a WA-alike, to take action again.
This behaviour is closer to an acceptance of some sort of huge gold overhang instead of "pure" manipulation for, God knows, what reason. Because I refuse to believe that big bad pirate-squeezers died out, completely .

Governments are continiously manipulating-managing their currency in function of their economic position towards their references. Have we any evidence that they are using gold for this purpose as well ? I don't . I have a strong perception they are treating gold as inherited family jewels, wich they sell or lease without any kind of emotion.Remember the Suisse referendum !
They just don't wan't to inform their citizens about this indifference, for reasons of possible price-imponderabile.
This unspoken attitude is probably an explanation for laclustre POG behaviour. We need an earthquake to revitalise the utmost importance of the forgotten gold.
This shock is surely in full preparation. In one single word :DEBT ! TA of POG over 30 yrs, suggests, we are pretty close. The complete amount of 32.000 tons is not going to be sold in one go. Maybe, already 10.000 tons of it are already gone ? France/Germany/Italy and the left overs of other nations might desire a higher price. Anglogold, perhaps will signal when they are ready to let the price spike ? Win-win, remember ! Oligopoly, you know ...or who knows really ? Fascinating, isn't it. Be part on this greatest show on earth.
Pandagold
A turbulent year ahead?

Where's my gold snake boots?

It would now appear that the Brit elections will be in May. How will this figure in the POG?

First, IMHO I believe (100%) BoE was working with the cabal in the manipulation of gold. This, to me, and many others, was made obvious by the way it was done � in particular announcing the decision well before the event, and in the manner (timing) in which the different auctions have been staged.

Obviously it would look very bad for Blair, if the gold price was to rise much above the average selling price of the different auctions before the election, I would feel the BofE have had assurances it would not. The opposition would have a field day on this alone.

Also, today in parliament, Blair has indicated a date for moving the country to drop the pound for the euro - within two years (though this would need a referendum). To help this along, and to sell it to the Brits, there would be a need to see the pound dropping and the euro gaining in strength, which is moving slightly that way now.

There are indications it could be towards the end of this year (I think beginning of next)

So, here are two things capping POG to around its present price for (give and take a few dollars up and down), at least, until towards autumn (fall). It is around this time that things also can go haywire, generally, in the financial markets - September/October.

There is another scenario brewing, one in which I hope my 'ether' vibes are proved wrong.

I have a gut feeling that Sharon will put forward a 'peace' deal to the Palestinians, one which will be hyped as Israel giving great concessions in exchange for peace. On the surface, especially to those who do not fully understand the problem (or even care), it will appear, by the way it is presented, that Israel is being more than generous.

To the Arab, it will be a double shuffle, or a deal from the bottom, whatever, and they will reject it, for they know that Israel will not meet the Palestinian, and majority Arab
demands on Jerusalem. They will, therefore reject it. The street fighting will go on, backed by a few terrorist attacks (maybe one terrorist attack staged by the Mossad).


It will be enough for Sharon to have the excuse to put down the Palestinians by force, escalating tension in the whole region, and put some Arab leadership in danger of being overthrown if they do not react against Israel.

You can guess what the outcome will be. At some stage, US involvement. This will work nicely to shift people's attention away from the economic situation at home which will be beginning to bite deeply by then.

There is much more, but I feel that is enough, for now. I hope it will NOT materialise, but, the odds, I feel, are more than 50 to 1. I will have my supply of the precious metal, in one form or another, as inflation will rear its ugly head (above the parapet) to the point where it wll be noticed. This, together with the ME problem will turn people to their old standby.

This will be a turbulent year in more ways than one. Well, what do you expect, it is the true millennium year. Snakes can be viscious, sneaky unpredictable creatures, and can strike suddenly and quickly - now where are my gold snake boots.
Pandagold
They'll wiggle out somehow

Why do I get a feeling a deal has been done to take the heat of the Cabal by putting the emphasis on 'hedging' has being the main culprit?

It seems to be working

( article on Kitco News)
S African hedging moves rattle gold stocks
Feb 8
AAP


Australian gold stocks slumped on Wednesday after two South African mining houses revealed plans to increase their hedging of forward production.

The world's biggest gold miner, AngloGold, said at a conference in Capetown on Tuesday it intended to hedge 50 per cent of its production for the next five years over a 10-year period.

"Currently they are 50 per cent hedged for four years," Bell Securities gold analyst Mr Keith Goode said. "That therefore implies they are going to put in another 3.5 million ounces on their hedge book."

In addition, Harmony Gold Mining Co, which had said it would never hedge, revealed plans to forward sell 1 million ounces of production following its acquisition of Elandsrand and Deelkraal from AngloGold.

The announcements led to a slump in the gold price overnight and impacted negatively on North American and Australian gold stocks, Mr Goode said.

"The AngloGold and Harmony announcements stating that basically there was a net 4.5 million additional ounces hedged between them was enough for the gold price to fall.

"The general thought is that the South Africans are starting to get stuck into hedging... and the perception is the gold price is not going to run."

Also pressuring gold prices are concerns that the earthquake in India will affect the country's demand for gold.

Gold fell $US2.15 to $US263.40 an ounce on Wednesday with the Gold Index on the Australian stockmarket down 12.5 points at 707.

Among Australian gold producers, Delta Gold closed steady at $1.32, Goldfields was down 10� to $1.70, Normandy was 3� weaker at 95� and Newcrest fell 7� to $3.97.

Randy (@ The Tower)
Gold, both on-lin and off-line
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlA quick reminder that our featured "coin of the month" made specially available for on-line ordering happens to be two coins....the Swiss Confederatio 20 franc coin and the Danish "Mermaid" coin (in both 10 and 20 kroner sizes).

Now get this, in talking with MK at Centennial, he said they had secured some small caches of Argentinos and even some Uruguyan 5 pesos coins in addition to the usual slate of products. Call up the office and rattle his cage. Ask them what others they have on hand and tell them how many of these beauties you want at these excellent derivative-driven prices.

How nice it is to hold a world-class asset in the palm of your hands as tangible representation of your own productivity. This is the kind of thing that only YOU can do for you. Make the call....
Randy (@ The Tower)
e
There it is...it fell off, seemingly.
Mr Gresham
Belgian (02/07/01; 14:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47703)
There you go again; more questions than Columbo (Peter Falk)!

Very good -- I wish there was a way of organizing what you've written in your last two posts, for it seems like you do the best job of including all of the issues in our "mystery" up to the point where we do not know the next fact.

My summary guess for all of it would be: public gold passing into private hands. At low prices (public excluded) for as long as possible, then during the ramp-up some last-minute sprees with letters of credit and corporate paper issue?

Perhaps the CBs and mining corps are to be jettisoned in a banking crisis? Or side-stepped in favor of some new free-wheeling private international bank. The illusion of powerful governments and the publicly-visible CBs (with their bureaucratic staffs) will be considered expendable after a banking meltdown? The "rescuers" will be ready...

Ah, if only M could just send 007 on a small information-gathering mission... ("Do you expect me to talk?" "No, Mr Bond. I expect you to die!")
Sierra Madre
Belgian...a simple solution to a complex problem
Why is gold behaving so peculiarly?

I had a post ready on this subject earlier today, but erased it. Here goes, again:

The simplest solution to all the peculiarities that gold is exhibiting on the worldwide scene, is staring us in the face. We just have to recognize it:

The powers that be know perfectly well that this period we have been living through, of paper money, has to come to an end in the not distant future.

The powers that be, dictate to Central Banks. We tend to believe that these institutions are sovereign and represent institutions at the service of their respective nations. This is simply false. Central Banks have supranational masters.

The Masters have decided to loot the Central Banks, to use the mega-banks for their purposes, and to consolidate control over gold mining all over the world, by bankrupting the mines.

Gold is more important than ever, and the Masters know it.

The low price, in constant decline, is meant to scare off investors so that they, the Masters, can accumulate as much as possible during this period, before the whole paper system collapses in world wide inflation.

In the meantime, the Masters are accumulating enormous quantities of gold. They will land on their feet, after the huge crisis, as they have always done. Goldman Sachs, Chase, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Citibank will be allowed to go broke, and then handed over to governments (read taxpayers) to bail them out. The liabilities in gold derivatives mean nothing to the Masters. The gold means everything!

In the new era which has not yet dawned, the Masters will be great holders of gold, accumulated in secret at extremely low prices.

This is what a corporation with crooked owners does with its prime assets when it sees the jig is just about up: the enduring, valuable assets are sold off cheap to the Insiders. Let the dumb stockholders hold the bag.

Who are the Masters? Perhaps we shall find out, someday, if we live long enough. What we are witnessing are actions that are incomprehensible unless this final objective is taken into account: paper is on the way out, gold is to be the basis of power, as always, for the Masters of Finance.

Accumulate as much as possible. Forget the price!
Trail Guide
A New Tack From U.S.
http://www.iht.com/articles/9910.htmA New Tack From U.S.
David E. Sanger New York Times Service
Wednesday, February 7, 2001

Treasury Secretary Rejects Lecturing Tokyo

WASHINGTON President George W. Bush's Treasury secretary plans a new U.S. approach for dealing with Japan, as the world's largest and second-largest economies appear headed into decline. -------------------------------- The combined effect of slumps in both countries, which together make up about 40 percent of the global economy, is being felt worldwide. Yet politicians and bureaucrats in Japan appear to be invoking the same prescriptions - hundreds of billions of dollars of more deficit spending by the government - that have repeatedly failed to get the country growing again. ------------------- He said, for example, that he was not interested in lengthy, vague discussion of Japan's myriad regulations. Instead, he said, he wanted to introduce "price competition" to Japan, noting that it was exactly that kind of competition from abroad that rebuilt U.S. industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s. ----------- But the same Japanese executives with whom Mr. O'Neill says he wants to deal directly have spent years fighting against low-priced competition, both foreign and domestic. --------------

------------------------

With no where to turn, no new initiatives to tap and arriving at a timeline change in international currency values; both these countries are about to take a path of no return. As this downturn begins to bite, our collective governments will be forced to buy up every asset necessary. All just to keep the fires burning! This is the classic threshold of an intense inflation.

It makes me recall a line from Red October, the movie,,,,,, where the Russian submarine captain (played by our retired 007) disposes of his KGB counterpart just before stealing the ship! He says:

---- "to where I am going, you cannot follow"-------

Indeed, where the dollar universe is now heading, no nation should follow! Can you spell hyperinflation? In Japanese?

TrailGuide


Trail Guide
Nation Hopes to Return to Preeminence
http://www.iht.com/articles/9939.htm
A Despondent Japan Seeks Some Answers
Howard W. French New York Times Service
Wednesday, February 7, 2001

The fearful talk in Tokyo financial circles for more than a month has been the possible collapse of the banking system. Banks never recovered from the bursting of Japan's speculative bubble in 1990 and remain saddled with an untold, and undisclosed, sea of unrecoverable debts. If defaulting creditors set off a wave of failures, it would mark the second time in two years that the country has experienced a banking crisis. ----------------------------- Growing numbers of Japanese economists maintain that the postwar obsession with exports is a major part of the
problem. According to this view, the welfare of Japanese people has been sacrificed in the name of mobilizing capital toward exports instead of developing goods for local consumption.----------- As a result, the public has been stuck with tiny, expensive homes in overcrowded neighborhoods, high prices on consumer goods and few affordable options for day care or elderly care. Japan's
electronic brands are known worldwide, but many Japanese do not own a clothes dryer or dishwasher. Young women are increasingly revolting against the system by postponing marriage and children. -------------- "The Japanese focus has never been on making Japanese richer, their lives happier or more convenient and predictable," said Haruo Shimada, an economist at Keio University. "All of our energy has been focused on competing with the United States."

----------------------

Most Western people do not know the Japan that resides in the last several lines above. We have always been told that they are rich with savings. I know this land of the Yen and their image was never as good as we were told.

TrailGuide



Trail Guide
Interest rate cut in euro zone some way off - ECB
http://www.ireland.com/business/news/2001/0208/news3.htm
By Jane Suiter, Economics Editor

Interest rate cuts are still some way off, according to two of the most senior figures in the European Central Bank.

Strong data from Germany have bolstered ECB hopes that Europe can withstand the slowdown in the US.

Yesterday, the Bundesbank president, Mr Ernst Welteke, repeated his view that the time was not right yet for a cut in euro zone interest rates but the ECB was closely watching what kind of impact the US slowdown might have.

"We still feel it is not yet the time to reduce interest rates," Mr Welteke, a member of the ECB's governing council, told CNN International.

**********
German manufacturing orders jumped 2.7 per cent in December, far higher than the market had been predicting. French consumer confidence also hit a record high in January.
*********

The data also boosted the euro, which rose above $0.93, closing at $0.9333 from $0.9308 a day earlier.

********
The currency could move back to parity with the dollar in the coming months, said Mr Horst Siebert, one of the German government's panel of independent economic advisers, in a magazine interview this week.
**********

"It is feasible that the euro will move back towards dollar parity," he said in an interview to be published in today's edition of the German weekly
WirtschaftsWoche.
Trail Guide
Britain must ease US fears on Euro army, says Cook
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000626415357098&rtmo=weQ0ljnb&atmo=99999999&pg=/et/01/2/7/weu07.html
By Toby Harnden in Washington

BRITAIN must allay US fears about the new European Rapid Reaction Force, Robin Cook said yesterday.

Speaking after meeting Gen Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, in Washington, the Foreign Secretary said that the force could strengthen Nato. Gen Powell said he was encouraged by Mr Cook's promise that it would not be a rival. He said: "If we approach the European Strategic Defence Initiative in the way that Robin and I have discussed, then there's no reason to see this de-stabilising Nato in any way." Mr Cook reassured Gen Powell that Britain was fully committed to the Anglo-American relationship.--------------

-------------

Seems they have changed their feelings????
I will be back when able.

Thanks
TrailGuide
Canuck
@ Sierra Madre
From your post:

"The Masters have decided to loot the Central Banks, to use the mega-banks for their purposes, and to consolidate control over gold mining all over the world, by bankrupting the mines."
-----------------------------------------------------------

I believe you have nailed the 'fishing' contest that Belgian, myself and a couple others have been floundering with.

So let's fast forward to the time (hopefully in the intermediate future) where the MASTERS have starved the miners to insolvency. A well-planned spike will secure confiscation of the mines, and low and behold we find out who has been ACCUMULATING over the years. So the masters have the gold above ground and the gold in the ground.

Where does that leave us, the little accumulators with a modest stash hidden away, nervous of the consequences?

With their 'plan' visible, what is our plan?

Canuck.
Journeyman
Who's profit center is paper money vs. coins @Simply Me, Randy, ALL
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed01.html
Hi Simply Me!

You've pretty much gotten the underlying facts straight. As far as why the "golden dollar" is being pushed, well your speculations are as good as any.

The cost of manufacturing U.S. paper money - - - and, if you read carefully, who's profit center paper money is as opposed to who's profit center coin manufacturing is can be found in the above link to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. First:

"The Federal Reserve orders new currency from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which produces the appropriate denominations and ships them to the Reserve Banks. Each note costs about four cents to produce."

Then:

"The distribution of coins differs from that of currency in some respects. First, when the Fed receives currency from the Treasury, it pays only for the cost of printing the notes. However, coins are a direct obligation of the Treasury, so the Reserve Banks pay the Treasury the face value of the coins."

High regards,
Journeyman




Hi-Hat
Trail Guide
Hello again. Could you please elaborate a little more on the dynamic that locks us into hyper-inflation.?

Inflation is inflation is inflation, but hyper-inflation
conjures up an image of string pushing that seems insane.

With markets and jobs potentially liquidating,defaults,
bankruptcy, etc. etc. I guess I just can't "see" what
mechanism causes the hyper.

The clowns in Washington have over our History pulled
many a rabbit out of the hat, to defraud and welsch
on a game gone bad.

People in soup lines are manageable and it seems like an elite oligarchy could believe they could control that
outcome. However it would seem that the going hyper
would unleash an all bets are off, dangerous unknown.









CoBra(too)
Mr. McTeer and the "Buy the SUV" Syndrome!
...You gotta love the guy stating amidst a mounting energy crisis to buy a gas guzzling and probably third family car to help a slowing economy, dependent on consumers 'only!' along to renewed vigor.
Just assuming the said SUV sports license plates spelling Mitsubishi, Subaru, Daewoo or even BM'W' you'd be doing a lot for the economy, globally. Though, maybe, not as much for the currency as Mr. McTeer's first consideration should be.
So, maybe, he should have said - consume more of the high
tech fast food, crowding the alley of Silicon Valley - and dont gorge too much of the Beijing Duck ... stay close to home and cheer the NASDuck (-in merger talks with the EASDuck) "....". And as I can't spell the word to end this bland description of nonchalance, I'm asking, why can't we consume the taxpayers gold, assumed to be in the vaults of Ft. Knox, by chance?
Mac, we'll assure thee, we'll consume the stuff and turn the economee - around to a sound recipe'.
Telling you? cb2
slingshot
The Plan.
CANUCK Msg.47714Looks like the CB's would have us in a pickle if they have both above and below ground Gold. Paper would be out for sure. So, What's the plan? First do not get nervous. Learn a "DIRTY HANDS" skill. Get some street smarts. Learn how to barter. Use your Gold to purchase items of necessity. Wow! Flashback of Y2K.
How about since we have some gold, that we just exchange among ourselves and to HADES with the banks.

Slingshot
CoBra(too)
"The Frankfurt Stock Exchange" - eg German Bourse ...
... outdid itself by listing in form of the first major IPO of the millenium on itself! The issue was 23 times oversubcribed - don't know about greenshoe - and traded itself on itself -shy of 10% - to a first recorded record price.
Nice? - and worthy of TIME magazine's, sublime front page contrarian indicator - vice. All told - go gold -cb2
Randy (@ The Tower)
Journeyman, yes, precisely....but "profit"?
We've stabbed at this before on the forum. Perhaps you would like to lead off with your own attempt at expressing the meaning of the word.

I believe as people come to better terms with the meaning of "profit", their enhanced understanding will clarify the important role of gold in their financial lives.

Many people make a big mistake when they buy into the notion that "money makes money". How, by "profits"? What is that, interest or something else?

A bit of thought will convince them that money does not make money, but rather it is by time, energy, talent, ideas and effort that money may be made. And if we can say that all comerce (trade) occurs as participants swap items of perceived equivalent value, then wherein lies "profit"? What we see is each participant seeking to increase his personal advantage by trading his item for that offered by another...each gaining the desired advantage through this trade of "equivalent items". And yes, most times one side of this trade is only currency, but that fact itself does not equate to "profit".

For the moment, I will leave it to others to expand on this if they choose, and I may come back to it as time allows.
RossL
COMEX stoppers and warehouse stocks analysis
http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=warehouse
The above link will bring up a list of documents on COMEX warehouse stocks. Yesterday a link was posted by Randy that provides info on the stoppers, the COMEX paper that delivery of 100 oz. gold is exercised by the long.

In the 5 business days since first delivery notice day, 4858 contracts have been stopped for a total of 485800 ounces of gold. However, since January 30th, COMEX warehouse stocks have only dropped 97 ounces of gold from 1775330 oz. to 1775233 oz.

Guys, it's too early to proclaim GS as a savior. Apparently, the big banks are just trading warehouse receipts!!
slingshot
Randy@ The Tower Msg 47720
Profit Profit is the vehicle which increases ones personal resources giving the preception of accumulated wealth.
Slingshot.
JMB
The Bubble Fix
Journeyman
CB PROFIT CENTERS @Randy, ALL

Hi Sir Randy!

Notice I used the term "profit center" because as many, particularly Peter Drucker (and I believe, Peter Asher) have pointed out, there is no "profit" for an organization until the last bookkeeping entry shows an excess. In other words, while you may make huge gains from bartering one thing for another ("selling" it if it's barter FOR money), until your whole operation shows a profit (more bartering power than you began with), usually accounted in "FRNS) here in U.S.A., you haven't made a "profit."

Please note that because of the "law" of comparative advantage (division of labor) BOTH sides of a transaction can and should show a "profit," that is, increase in trading power.

Vegas, pre Howard Hughes, often sold food and entertainment at a loss, to be underwritten by their profits from the casinos. That is, the casinos made more money than the whole hotel-casino operation made as an economic entity. The casino was a "profit center" but some of the excess money the casino division made went to underwrite the rest of the operation. Of course, it was the overall business equation that counted - - - free food and entertainment was one way the casinos ended up with so many willing customers.

SO - - - WITHIN an operation, you talk about "profit centers" and it's fairly safe to make calculations as to any excess they produce over costs - - - and call it "profit." However, when talking about the WHOLE OPERATION, only the "bottom line" counts. Because by definition the whole operation is more complex than it's sub-operations, it's more difficult to analyze a whole business than one of it's subdivisions - - - ASSUMING the internal accounting is set up appropriately.

As far as CB bottom line profits, I'm sure they have a nice black one. However it is ALSO safe to say that "buying" paper bills for four cents each and "selling" (distributing) them at face value is a tremendously profitable part of their business. That is, a tremendously valuable "profit center."

Regards,
Journeyman