USAGOLD Discussion - April 2001

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

FredBear
(04/01/2001; 00:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51164)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Federal Reserve Note (aka US Dollar) is the New Fifth Horseman.

The demand for gold will be driven by the coming, and necessary, devaluation of the US Dollar against GOLD.

Lord help us.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

The Invisible Hand
(04/01/2001; 00:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51165)
Black Blade, what's this?
http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/regional/ap185.htmAP Regional
Giuliani: California-like shortages could occur in NYC if power is not boosted
by LARRY NEUMEISTER
Associated Press Writer
NEW YORK (AP) - The kind of power shortages being weathered by California could occur in New York if power supplies are not quickly increased, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said Saturday.
The mayor, speaking at an afternoon news conference, said the city was 350 megawatts to 400 megawatts shy of what is necessary to meet the power needs of the approaching summer. One megawatt equals 1 million watts.
''If we don't increase significantly the amount of power in the city of New York, we will have happen to us what happened in California,'' Giuliani said.
He said additional power is ''vital for us to be able to put the lights on'' as well as provide power in a city increasingly reliant on high technology that requires more electricity.
His comments came the same day the East River Environmental Coalition and other community and environmental groups protested plans by Consolidated Edison to put new turbines into its East River Power Plant.
The coalition said in a statement that Con Ed was seeking to triple energy production at a plant with smokestacks on East 14th Street despite high rates of asthma in the neighborhood.
''They don't want to consider the health of their customers and neighbors,'' said Susan Steinberg, head of the coalition. ''They don't want to consider how fine particulate matter from its smokestacks triggers asthma attacks.''
Giuliani said Con Edison needed to do a better job of explaining to the public that the expansion of the plant will actually reduce harm to the environment while increasing power available to the city.
Turbines generate steam used by 1,900 customers in Manhattan to power their air conditioning and heating units.
In a statement Saturday, Con Edison said it was ''working very closely with the community to address their concerns.''
''We're working hard to be a good neighbor, and the East River plant will be a cleaner plant using state-of-the-art technology that will lower overall emissions,'' the company said.
The city needs more power in part because of the increasing use of technology and an expanding real estate market that has included large apartment and office buildings in Manhattan and a large number of new homes in Westchester County and Staten Island.
AP-ES-03-31-01 1707EST !--END-->
03/31/2001
The Invisible Hand
(04/01/2001; 00:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51166)
Black Blade, what's this?
http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/regional/ap185.htmAP Regional
Giuliani: California-like shortages could occur in NYC if power is not boosted
by LARRY NEUMEISTER
Associated Press Writer
NEW YORK (AP) - The kind of power shortages being weathered by California could occur in New York if power supplies are not quickly increased, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said Saturday.
The mayor, speaking at an afternoon news conference, said the city was 350 megawatts to 400 megawatts shy of what is necessary to meet the power needs of the approaching summer. One megawatt equals 1 million watts.
''If we don't increase significantly the amount of power in the city of New York, we will have happen to us what happened in California,'' Giuliani said.
He said additional power is ''vital for us to be able to put the lights on'' as well as provide power in a city increasingly reliant on high technology that requires more electricity.
His comments came the same day the East River Environmental Coalition and other community and environmental groups protested plans by Consolidated Edison to put new turbines into its East River Power Plant.
The coalition said in a statement that Con Ed was seeking to triple energy production at a plant with smokestacks on East 14th Street despite high rates of asthma in the neighborhood.
''They don't want to consider the health of their customers and neighbors,'' said Susan Steinberg, head of the coalition. ''They don't want to consider how fine particulate matter from its smokestacks triggers asthma attacks.''
Giuliani said Con Edison needed to do a better job of explaining to the public that the expansion of the plant will actually reduce harm to the environment while increasing power available to the city.
Turbines generate steam used by 1,900 customers in Manhattan to power their air conditioning and heating units.
In a statement Saturday, Con Edison said it was ''working very closely with the community to address their concerns.''
''We're working hard to be a good neighbor, and the East River plant will be a cleaner plant using state-of-the-art technology that will lower overall emissions,'' the company said.
The city needs more power in part because of the increasing use of technology and an expanding real estate market that has included large apartment and office buildings in Manhattan and a large number of new homes in Westchester County and Staten Island.
AP-ES-03-31-01 1707EST !--END-->
03/31/2001
Mr Gresham
(04/01/2001; 01:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51167)
Money flows: Fed, foreigners, treasuries, GSEs
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=36614&threadid=366Try this one on for size, by WRS at PrudentBear. Sounds like a view of the scope we appreciate here, I just don't know enough about these markets to know if it's true:

"I understand from what Mr. Moto said that both Britain and Japan are trading even Treasuries for GSE debt. Now this is a scary development, what is happening is that the Fed is injecting liquidity by printing money to buy GSE's and then
trading them for existing Treasuries. You know what this does? It creates money out of thin air that doesn't just journal out even. When the Fed purchases Treasury debt with FRNs it increases M1/M2 and adds liquidity to the economy. It is supposedly OK to do this because the FRNs represent a claim against the full faith of the US government which
as we know can limitlessly tax the many to enrich the few.

"What happens though when the economy needs money but the US govt doesn't need debt??????????? You enter the situation we are currently in, there just isn't enough debt out there to repurchase anymore. The fed has been doing repos on the 10-15 year stuff since late last fall and I think the market for them is dried up. There aren't anymore that he doesn't own. What happened with the money in a lot of cases was that it went to purchase GSE debt which is not backed by the full faith of the US govt but pays a higher premium. This allows consumers to refinance homes and pay off other debts which injects liquidity right where Greenie needs it. The little problem is that lot's of other debt out there exists and needs a hot money flow to take care of it and Greenie can't get the money there as easily. Primarilly he needs real money in the hands of some stock speculators that are stuck on the wrong side of several stupid bets (read hedge funds and big players like GS).

"So now he needs to pump more money into the stock market to bail those folks out so they can absorb some of the problems beginning to surface as a result of the swindlers down on Lousiana and Smith streets doing their thing (by the way you have to live in Houston to know what this means, it refers to Dynegy,Enron and Reliant Energy which are located on parallel streets, Lousiana and Smith in downtown Houston). So what does he do, he prints money to buy GSEs and offers to exchange them for some of the foreign held Treasuries. You must realize that Greenie can't monetize the foreign Treasuries because that just exacerbates the foreign dollar problem. There are too many dollars outside the shores of the US that he doesn't want coming back here and on the other hand he doesn't want to admit the emperor has no clothes by not repurchasing US federal debt from erstwhile foreigners. He also needs to get that hot money in the US to solve some existing problems.

"Well, you think he is a genius but he now is doing the only thing he can do. It seems smart but anyone with a 15 year memory knows that he is selling bad S&L loans "upstream". He is now buying GSEs from Freddie and Fannie which allows them to invest in the stock market to hold it up. He is trading the GSEs for foreign held Treasuries. What I think is odd is that the foreigners are going for it. Now he gets to add liquidity where he needs it, in the US financial system and he provides liquidity to the bond market without having a net outflow of dollars.

"What is really neat about this finagle is that it gives the Fed the same charter as ever, he only holds US Treasury debt and he isn't really holding GSE debt. The reason this works is because he buys the GSEs for FRNs (which I know are worthless and you will eventually figure out but probably just a little too late to do us any good) and immediately exchanges the GSEs for Treasuries held by foreigners. So you ask me, why would the foreigners want GSE debt instead of the full faith of the US govt? Probably one reason is that it is paying a higher return and the second is that it actually attaches to something tangible, some poor Americans home. So now Greenie is mortgaging America to foreigners in a very direct way. When people dump on their mortgages, guess who willown the property? You got it, the Arabs and Japanese.

"OK so what is the impact of the little imps moves? Well in short he is pumping a ton of money into the market which is liquidating the rats that need to escape the sinking ship. If you really believed this punk dead-cat bounce was going anywhere, you are a first-class sucker and you don't deserve to have the power of attorney. The chumps that buy the dips are jumping back in with some of their refi money that was left over from this last binge (see the attached article). By the way, in my opinion, the refi round is over and rates will not be falling in the near future, they will be rising. Greenie is liquidating the important people and guess what else is happening, they are slowly but surely buying up all the gold they can at low prices. Once enough of the players are out and the suckers have heavy mortgages, worthless stocks and a job that doesn't pay so well but they must have, you own them. "
Black Blade
(04/01/2001; 01:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51168)
re: Invisible Hand
Sir Hand, I have mentioned this as a possibility several times. I think that come next winter the energy situation in NY and the rest of New England will be go critical. It could come as early as this summer if there is a prolonged heat wave. The eastern Grasshopper like his left coast cousin has been opposed to taking responsibility for the inevitable. The consequence will be the same as these locusts consume power generated by their neighbors. The energy crisis will spread outward just like in the western US. In the mind of the locust, it is always someone else's responsibility and they believe that others exist only to serve them. Therefore they will try to use government and political pressure to force their neighbors to serve them and to force the neighboring states to serve as energy farms. However, when the lights go out as they did in 1967 when the electric grid went down in New England the point will be driven down and the economy will continue into its death spiral. Wall Street will see how severe the problem is and we will no longer hear cries from piss ant analysts about how energy isn't important to the economy anymore with the advent of the "New Economy." It could very well be an event reminiscent of the 1929 crash. And we will also no longer hear the squeaking from the psuedo-environmentalist and self-proclaimed activists as the new "war cry" will be "energy at any cost." Not a pretty picture but at least that is my take.


- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/01/2001; 01:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51169)
Calif. Power Grid Back on Alert As Supplies Fall
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010331/ts/utilities_california_dc_44.htmlSnippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The California Independent System Operator (news - web sites) (ISO), which manages most of the state's power grid, called a stage two emergency on Saturday after power supplies dropped below needed reserve levels.

Black Blade: And so it goes. The Grasshopper does not produce. The Grasshopper does not conserve. The Grasshopper only consumes. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"
Black Blade
(04/01/2001; 01:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51170)
Low snowpack adds a chill to energy outlook
http://www.contracostatimes.com/partners/ns/water_20010331.htmSnippit:

A state hydrologist says the low precipitation levels -- the state is 40% below normal -- could translate into one-third less electricity

SACRAMENTO -- California's energy outlook grew even darker Friday when a survey revealed low snowpack levels that are certain to cut the output from the state's vast system of hydroelectric plants and increase the likelihood of summer blackouts. The amount of snow on the Golden State's mountains as April arrives is 40 percent below normal, state officials said. As a result, far less water will run off into lakes and streams that feed the state's 379 hydropower facilities. "We already have an energy crisis, and now Mother Nature has gotten into the mix," said Christy Dennis, a spokeswoman for Pacific Gas & Electric Co., which operates 68 hydroelectric plants. "We've already got an ugly summer forecast, and this just adds on top of that."

Black Blade: What more should I say? Another nail in the coffin perhaps. I am working on something and will post more in detail on this crisis later, maybe in a couple of days as this is an extensive subject that will impact the economic picture and therefore paint a picture where gold figures prominently.
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 03:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51171)
Mr Gresham

You echo my sentiments. Put a man in debt, you own him, put a business in debt, you own it, put a nation in debt, you control it. Own - Control - it all amounts to the same thing - POWER! Power to enhance your life above that of another.

This is how TPTB acquired most of their power. (there are one or two other nasty little ways, and they use all of them).

Does anyone still wonder who is soaking up all this 'debt free' real money , yellow stuff at give away prices?
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 03:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51172)
Gold Power

Never forget those words from a member of a family that controls more of this world than the masses are allowed to believe. Their name is kept very low key - almost being relogated to an anachronism.

Who controls the London (and world) bullion market? Gold Bullion, yes gold, the only REAL money - who controls it? Which banking institution sends its representatives every day to set the price.

I would hazard a guess that they know, and only they know, how much gold there is in this world almost to the ounce. And they know where most of it is at any given time. They, and only they know who the buyers are, because GOLD is THEIR business. Are THEY going to consign gold to the scrap heap? Get wise!

Those words again " Let me control the money presses, and I don't care who makes the laws" Another way of saying - Money is the only power, or another way - He who has the gold (money) makes the rules.



Mr Gresham
(04/01/2001; 04:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51173)
Pandagold
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=37051&threadid=37029Well, here is one analysis on the effects and depletion of margin accounts in the shrinking US equity markets.

"It is a valid example on how credit consumes capital, once the process of leverage reverses. "

I imagine that US homeowners will be in analagous straits to US corporations: see who can make the payments to avoid the initial wave of repos, and hold on until a general debt moratorium, and system of workouts allows the stronger mortgage-payers to write down the debt and keep their homes.

For corporations, it will be who can keep the strongest cash flows and balance sheets, and consolidate control within vital industries, as recipients of some new fund allocations, or debt write-downs.
Black Blade
(04/01/2001; 04:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51174)
+++++$259.30+++++
When stock portfolios fall fast and furious in the coming months will panic ensue and then investors will look desperately for safe harbour - then they will find a Golden lifeboat.
Christian
(04/01/2001; 07:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51175)
Private Market for credit creation gold
Central banks trade credit creation gold for dollars at 10 times commodity gold price. The fact that someone- somewhere- can settle trillions of dollars of trade imbalances every year with gold priced much greater than that of the commodity gold price, is what makes the dollars value stable. Commodity metals will continue to be sold down to increase the value of the dollar. Same will soon happen to real estate.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/01/2001; 07:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51176)
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape @ # 51163

UNCLE
EagleOne
(04/01/2001; 09:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51177)
+++++++ 252.50 +++++++

I used the Rhode Island Red School of Economic Forecasting GC24k method of evaluating chicken bones, with a standard toss and adjusting for humidity here in Haiti, of course.
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 09:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51178)
stocks LIES and ticker tape A CHALLENGE TO YOU

I do want to leave the forum, as I have more productive things to do with my time than discourse with the likes of you, whose policy seems to be to maintain this forum as a virtual closed shop to all but yourself and your tight little fraternity who reject any alternative view to the general mainstream.

Your comments show lack of vision, and open mind. Your attacks on my posts have been vindictive, and uncalled for.

I came originally, at the invitation of MK who responded once to an e-mail I had sent him incorporating some of my controversial (as opposed to mainstream) views. He felt it would add something to the forum.

When I said I would be leaving the forum, I was most serious, and was most surprised when even one person asked me to stay. One of my reasons I weakened was that I did not think it fair on the few others out there, outside your cosy circle, who do like to see some opposing view, or something to challenge their beliefs and perceptions, and who would appreciate something to stimulate their thinking.

There has ALWAYS been a connection, either directly, or indirectly to GOLD in my posts, because GOLD is my business. I live near the epicenter of the International GOLD market and make sure I attend anything connected with Gold put on there. Almost every penny I have is invested in some form in the gold industry so my money is riding where my mouth is.

I did tell you once that your incorporating the word LIES in your pseudonym was well chosen. And I am about to prove it. I will also prove how it is your intent to appeal to emotion in others to cause me mischief.

These are your words in post#51163

"That individual takes delight in bashing the USA, the US Constitution, Christianity and who knows what next?"

I challenge you to find ONE post, just ONE where I have said anything derogatory (as in 'bashing') about Christianity, or any religion?

Find that, and I will apologise to all and gladly step down.

When you don't find it, then I expect you to apologise.

I hope MK takes note.

As for anything against the US, so have MANY others, as they have about the UK and Europe. I have also criticised the UK, even you remarked on my hinting that it may not be a bad thing if the EU was run by Germany, and gave specific reasons, which was not very complimentary to the UK.


I apologise to all other posters here, for this exchange, but my honour is at stake, and has been challenged repeatedly by this poster, and I want to stop these lies and this nonsense once and for all, not just for me, but for others.

Remember, it is only ONE post you have to find, where I have 'bashed' ANY religion.
SteveH
(04/01/2001; 09:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51179)
Kudlow
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2001q2/2001_04/1010401.014039.damien666.htmhttp://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2001q2/2001_04/1010401.014051.damien666.htm

snippet from part II:

Kudlow: No, I don't. It was like somebody flipped a switch. The fact that the Fed has 500 Ph.D. economists, the vast majority of them from universities in the northeast, especially the Ivy League, doesn't help. Greenspan started playing down the role of money in inflation, which is the key. And we started getting all this fine-tuning nonsense: unemployment is this, wages are that, retail sales are this. Inflation is a monetary problem. If there is too much money out there, you'll know it. Because the gold price will go up $100, or the bond rate will go up 100 basis points. It has nothing to do with retail sales. But Greenspan obscured all that. His relapse means we have made no progress on the science of central banking.

later...

Kudlow: You know, in his own clumsy way Paul Volcker may be the best Fed chairman in history. He's an odd character--by no means a supply-sider. By and large he didn't like Reagan's tax cuts. But he took the inflation rate from fifteen and brought it down to two, roughly between 1980 and 1986. You have to say that was the most extraordinary achievement in the Fed's history. Alan took the inflation rate from four or five to two. That is a fine achievement, but not quite the same. I was on a panel with Volcker the other day. He's a very eccentric man, very dogmatic. But in his own way, brilliant. Remember, he was around when the dollar was linked to gold. He was in the Treasury Department in the '50s. He's a relic of the past. You know what? He gave us an antiquated monetary policy. And that's what was needed. He took the gold price down from $800 to $300 an ounce.

dragonfly
(04/01/2001; 10:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51180)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****

There is ONE known of OLD whose HUNGER for GOLD is a matter of SURVIVAL. This ONE - called NIBIRU by the Sumerians - is the tenth planet of our solar system with an elliptical orbit of 3600 years. The ANNUNAKI who inhabit it require GOLD for ATMOSPHERIC SHIELDING and have been acquiring such here on Earth for at least 450,000 years. "Black Gold" has nothing on these GUYS and GALS who like to ACCUMULATE AU in prodigious quantities with the help of their genetically tweaked human helpmates. Their return is imminent (years) and I suspect that some among the "strong hands" understand well the benefit of storehousing AU in anticipation of their arrival. The secular apostates in central banking have obviously forgotten their history and may pay dearly for their leasing sins and any related dispersal of AU to the unwashed masses. Since the electromagnetic forces of NIBIRU passing between Earth and Mars are so great, recurring catastrophe has been our fate thus far, with the subsequent revival of the arts of civilization in the hands of our "gods and goddesses" of the tenth planet. The FIFTH HORSEMAN is PROPITIATION this time around. Those who can mobilize the resources necessary to get OFF PLANET with ALOT OF GOLD will be in a COSMIC SWEET SPOT when the global disasters occur. Talk about a technological expression of faith and worship - sitting out there in geosynchronous orbit with the radio transmitting the atomic number of AU in all directions. "Welcome to Heaven faithful Earthlings, what is that in your suitcases?" So, for the rest of us with "small footprints", the FIFTH HORSEMAN may be of benefit if we survive massive earth cataclysms and happen to have the good fortune to parlay our small holdings into a fiefdom of ANNUNAKI-directed reconstruction. They seem to have a pro-slavery proclivity though and many of us small holders may choose to bargain in a different fashion to keep the spirit of independence and integrity alive.

In the immortal words of Stan Lee --- "Nuff Said".

Submitted with a smile.

dragonfly
aunuggets
(04/01/2001; 11:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51181)
Pandagold - RE: your post 51172
No doubt your thoughts are VERY MUCH in line with reality here.

After all, what better method of "acquiring" than to create artificially low valuations by "inducing" the masses to believe gold is an "unwanted" or "unattractive" commodity ? The lower THE price, the more THEY are accumulating at very attractive levels.

Those of us on the "outside" with the insight, knowledge, and OPPORTUNITY to do what "big money" is doing at the same time on the "inside" should consider your words more attentively.

Thank you Sir !
R Powell
(04/01/2001; 11:18:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51182)
**********The New Fifth Horseman************
Loss of confidence
Our new horseman will be a loss of confidence. Specifically, a loss of confidence in paper monetary holdings. The Nasdaq technology bubble has burst resulting in investment shifts into the "old" economy Dow market. When the as yet unburst corporate and individual debt bubble begins to fail, as it can only be sustained in an irrationally exuberant economic expansion, then the Dow also will start to loss value. The last refuge for paper investment is the Bond market.
If the economy is to survive, the dollar will be sacrificed, as the economic cure of massive paper liquidity and lower Fed. fund rates is poison to the strong dollar. With the dollar's demise, the last of the paper assets (bonds) fails to hold value and the rush (panic) into tangible assets will begin. Undoubtedly, some young investment manager somewhere will announce that he/she has "discovered" a new and safe investment opportunity for these uncertain times- gold!
From Jake Bernstein's "Beat the Millennium Crash",
"However, as long as you keep in mind the fact that metals are responsive to extremes in emotion, and extremes in emotion are a function of market conditions, you will do well. When emotions and markets appear to be out of control, and traders and investors are in a frenzy, precious metals become the preferred investments."
Jake's words are simple and straightforward. While not speculating on the complex, almost incomprehensible economic subleties of our global financial world, Jake relies on human psychology. The emotions of fear, confusion, anxiety, or bewilderment that will infect the unsuspecting investment world, will result in a loss of confidence and precipitate a demand for an intangible store of value, one that is impervious to any and all financial upheavels. One that will even provide handsome profits in times of distress. Our candidate for such a job- Gold.
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 11:31:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51183)
Fed Chairmen

I too have a feeling that, of the Fed Chairmen with which I am familiar, that Volkner, especially for a man in that office of what his held by many to be a vile den of financial iniquitiy, was a man of honour. I was sorry to see him go.

My feelings about him are only based on intuition - what comes across from things he has said and also any pictorial representation of the man. Often character shows in the face and body language.

I feel he was changed not because he was incapable of doing the job, but because he could not go along with some of the practices that have been required of the present chairman by his 'masters'.

As I have said, it is just intuition, but it rarely lets me down.

Mr Gresham
(04/01/2001; 11:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51184)
Pandagold
One person, for the positive or the negative, does not a forum make. We read what we choose to read. (It is not a lecture hall where someone can jump up to interrupt the speaker.)

Diluting your efforts by dealing with one individual is not consistent with the wisdom you share by those efforts. I encourage you to remember the other readers, and focus on the -- as HBM so wisely put it -- "edification" of the whole group.

And that's all that one individual, supportive as he wishes to be, can say.
R Powell
(04/01/2001; 12:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51185)
Mr.Gresham's 51167
Who needs debt to create money?
Incredible! Perhaps not real sound financial planing but he gets an A for creativity. Now, do you suppose he's trying to figure out how inject more fiat into the system based on the mortgage savings from refinancing at lower rates coming due in the near future. How can we spend NOW the percieved savings from the next five years?
Don't worry. I'm sure there's a way. I'm working on spending my birthday present money from my next life. I'm also going to sell derivatives on how much that will be.
Let's see, if I'm reincarnated as a member of the wealthy ruling class...
Rich
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 12:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51186)
Mr Gresham
That is exactly the point I am making, please abide by it.

I have been accused of something by this poster, I have challenged him to support his accusation. He made the accusation, I did not.

As you state yourself, there are others that attend this forum - that are outside your friendly society. They appear to get something from them.

If you care to check bck on my posts, I say many times you can accept or not accept - your words also, so what is your beef?

You don't lie and accuse another poster of something and expect not to be challenged.

I don't give a shute whether you believe what I say, it puts no money in my bank account, but don't accuse me of saying something I haven't.

Is that specific and in plain English enough for you.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/01/2001; 12:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51187)
Time is running low on your opportunity to EARN gold and silver, courtesy of the fine folks over at Centennial...
USAGOLD (03/29/01; 11:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51003)

The New Fifth Horseman: A CALL TO CONTEST. . . .A CALL TO CONTEST
Knights and Ladies of this Table -- one and all. . . . . .

A posting contest of erudition, fact and fancy is in order. One demanding of your greatest posting skills. . . .

We have come a long way on this journey of knowledge and understanding and these contests have contributed mightily toward this end. But no contest has carried the long lasting benefits and continuous interest like the Fifth Horseman competition (April, 1999) which I believe produced some of the best posts ever published at this site. In that competition, we found Rising Oil camped with the other four over that distant hill beyond these castle walls. We knew that hoary visage would wreak havoc. Now, as you know, this Fifth Horseman has torched many a village along the way (Rising from $10 to $30) and driven prices higher everywhere we look. . .and his deadly work is not done yet.

This Horseman, Rising Oil, remains conjoined with Three others, who,though resting quietly near the fire still theaten nevertheless, poised and ready to wreak havoc at the slightest provocation:

The Asian Contagion (now gone international, i.e. Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, et al)

Euro Introduction (We'll add the Strike Force to the currency)

The Stock Market Meltdown (In progress. . .)

But what is this . . .

In a cloud of dust One of the Five now gallops away n'er to be seen again. . . .Y2K -- having done its deadly damage and contributed mightily to the gold demand -- has vanished in the night.

And brings us to what this contest is all about. . . .


We must now once again name a Fifth to replace the One who has slinked away. Undoubtedly there are many candidates to fill this evil role. . . .

Remember: The Horsemen are not what drives Price but what will drive Demand for Gold in the future. . . .Gold, the Protector, the Vessel of our Wealth, the one addition to our portfolios that will be there should any of these Horseman gain the Day. . . . ..........So keep gold Demand in mind when you write your contest entry.

So that is the Contest to be weighed over the course of the next Five days. Who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the treat he represents?

The Castle Treasury has authorized issuance of one German 20 Mark gold coin to the winner and one U.S. Silver Eagle each to two runners-up. All entries must be made by Monday, April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.)

All Contest posts must be 30 words or more. . .

All Contest posts must be marked as follows:

****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)

--------------

Along with the Fifth Horseman competition, we will have a price guessing contest on the price of gold on the close for the June contract on Friday April, 6th. The gold will be awarded to the individual who comes closest to that closing price. The Castle Treasury has authorized a one-tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic as the prize. All entries must be made by Monday April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.). The post must also indicate in 30 words or Less why you think it will be so. Keep in mind, the contest is on the June contract, not April.

All contest entries must be marked with

+++++ (Price Guess) +++++ (Surrounded by plus signs)

----------------

Also. . .All first time posters will be awarded one U.S. Silver Eagle for breaking the ice. The post however must be a Fifth Horseman entry. Price Guess posts will not count but you may enter that contest also. To win the prize, you must e-mail jill@usagold.com that this is your first post. We will check each claim, so don't try to get one by us.

----------------

We would like to greatly encourage our international lurkers and posters to participate -- and we know there are a great many. We now have an international look and we would like to extend our hand across the waters and welcome all. We do not expect perfect English. . . .only well-honed logic.

So good luck, my friends.

And. . . . .

Let the contest continue.
auspec
(04/01/2001; 13:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51188)
Another Contest
GentlemenOut of the small print in Forum guidelines, an impartial observer is allowed to call for a duel when 2 posters reach a total impass. Let the games begin........
IronHead
(04/01/2001; 13:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51189)
Dragonfly - Cosmic Conundrum RE: your #51180
Sir Dragonfly - Really fun new perspective to Au; hope you don't take offense at my asking if this has been channeled by you pesonally, or was it of another's wavelength? And how might this be factored in with the Miyan calandar date of 2012 and the golden sun. Any biblical connection, as the Bible has some interesting quotes regarding gold, in Revelations, I believe? (Won't even touch Nostradamus and his prophecy for the New City - hey, maybe that's what Black Blade is leading up to regarding the Northeast?)

Interesting "out of this world" analysis, which might be exactly what Sir Pandagold has been alluding to all along. The Powers are Sumarien progeny?

Salutations {earthlings}
IronHead
US_Army(RET)
(04/01/2001; 14:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51190)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
http://nigelparry.com/diary/Ok, am intrigued by the "New Fifth Horseman" entry idea�and am ready to send forth a "tentative" first entry to this thoughtful forum.

I certainly have no doubt about who or what the "fifth horseman" is. Nor do many of the "clear thinking" individuals around me. There is only one existing entity with the power, force, influence and will to drag us all into the final stage of Armageddon. Of course at this point, no amount of "wealth" of any kind, be it gold or otherwise, will serve as even the slightest comfort for most. But, enroute to the final stages of bringing about world destruction, will trigger many of the events repeatedly forecasted in this forum. Especially a dramatic and near term fantasic increase in demand of the ultimate form of wealth, esp. win a crisis...Gold.

There is no question this nomination will be adamantly rejected by many�but "the truth is out there�"

No other group or nation since the days of the Nazi has gotten away with the murder and mayhem this "horseman" has. Vast control over the media and politicians of the "West" has allowed it to escape with repeated acts of appalling inhumanity.

Its actions (crimes?) include:

1. Wholesale displacement of indigenous populations.
2. Creation and maintenance of the largest concentration and slave labor camps the world has ever seen.
3. Repeated acts of massacres and murder of significant numbers of men women and children.
4. Antagonizing prideful neighboring nations into one-sided slaughters and then claiming to be the victim.
5. Completely ignoring the lawful, moral and unanimous past U.N. resolutions.
6. Totally undermining the moral makeup of the world's remaining superpower by near total control of its political system and media.

There is a natural law of "compensation"�and we all will reap the rewards of such actions for good or ill.

I submit this posting fully expecting to be labeled with the usual "anti-somethingorother" label�which is the normal tactic of all those supporting this horseman �but no other "horseman" I have seen mentioned so far comes close to the significance and most likely near term probable cause of worldwide disaster both in financial and human terms. We are literally hanging on the edge of a major conflagration and we are being rushed over the abyss by this immoral and unthinking force. This malignant entity is� of course, the Zionist Government of Israel.

Respectfully�
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 15:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51191)
auspec The contest (challenge)
auspec: I can only assume that your post referred to SLATT and I. I also assume it was impartial as there was nothing (no subtle, or not so subtle, cynicism) to indicate otherwise.

As I stressed, it is my wish to depart from the forum as I find it too time consuming, and I am out of tune with most posters here, although, having said that, I have detected a growing awareness to the areas I have tended to direct my points of view.

This time, I promise, I will NOT weaken when I say the following:-


A false accusation was made against me, I have asked that poster to support his accusation by fact (specifics as he seems to harp about).


I said that if he is right, and I am wrong, I will apologise to all and depart.


I now say that once he brings forth the evidence of his accusation, or failing that he himself apologises, I will leave anyway.


This to me seems a fair offer from one knight to another - a sort of throwing down the gauntlet, to settle this business once and forever.

I have been invited to contribute to two other websites from those who only know me from postings made on this and one other site. So, obviously there are people out there who do have open minds, and who don't mind their meat not wrapped up in meaningless, overworked, pleasantries.

That is the sort of thing that sickens people from listening to British parliamentary debate.

But, I feel that my time is better used in a more (financially) productive way. Much is happening in the undercurrents of the gold business. There is money to be made now which this 'tid for tat' bickering, or getting bogged down with focusing on 'details' distracts from.

I await my adversary to accept the challenge.
Tree in the Forest
(04/01/2001; 15:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51192)
Mr. Gresham, R Powell
Very interesting quote. But I had thought that GSEs were backed by the full faith and credit of the US government (please...no snickering) or is that only when owned by Freddie or Fannie? It seems to me that the secondary mortgage market would require that this guarantee extend beyond Freddie and Fannie and that might encourage foreign ownership. This would be a good deal for the US. If these were the worst debt, let's say for the sake of argument that the default rate ran 20% when thing get bad. The US would still have an 80% mitigation of debt as the non-defaulting owners paid off and the US had to cough up only 20%. This might explain the foreign willingness to go along with this. Mortgage administration is taken care of locally so noone would even know that their payments were going to Japan or wherever. Comments?
Tree in the Forest
(04/01/2001; 16:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51193)
US_Army (RET)
Sir, I would like to suggest that you read my post #51143 from yesterday. It would appear that the "power elite" referred to in that post has the ability and desire to foment discord on a world wide basis and may have in fact done so repeatedly for at least the last 100 years. World Wars I and II, Vietnam, the Balkans, the mideast, the Spratly's and elsewhere; wherever there is unrest there you will find them and their hired rabble rousers like the devil himself. As a soldier, it is probably upsetting to hear that many of the wars fought in the 20th century were at their behest but that may in fact be the case. These "fights" appear to be planned and augmented with the media who is at their beck and call. Recall General Eisenhower's warning to "beware the Industrial-Military complex". The "power elite" benefits from these wars. And when we play into their hands, we help them. The mideast conflicts of the last 50 years are only one of their little games. A rather deadly game I would say but of great benefit to them. IMHO it therefore behooves us to avoid going along with their propaganda. Thank you for listening.
auspec
(04/01/2001; 16:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51194)
Distinctions
Tree in the ForestI think we have to be very careful here when someone accuses the Power Elite of possibly being of any particular ethnic background or race {I don't think YOU were, Tree}. What does one mean when they refer to a government or person as being a Zionist?? If it means that Israel has a right to exist peacefully in its tiny remnant of land, then there are many fair minded "Zionists".
The material by David Guyatt that I referred you to yesterday contains nothing that equates the Power Elite" as equating with the nation of Israel. There is indeed much strife in the MiddleEast, and none of us are going to solve that problem. I really don't care to discuss this issue beyond pointing out that the PE and "Zionists", to my way of thinking, are NOT one and the same.
dragonfly
(04/01/2001; 18:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51195)
IronHead

Thank you kind sir for your salutation and thoughtful comments. The credit for the tenth planet idea goes to a writer named Zecharia Sitchin and is elaborated in a paperback series called the Earth Chronicles. I have full responsibility for the part about elites using their stash as a sort of 'Golden Parachute'. My hobby is studying writings on geological catastrophes and I have always been fascinated by the story in Plato's Critias Dialogue of how the Egyptian priests told Solon that the Greeks were like children because they only had memory of a thousand years of history. The priests claimed to be in possession of knowledge of 10 thousand years of history. Trying to integrate knowledge from many fields of thought is very stimulating and has led me to suspect that mankind's love affair with Gold has deeper roots than generally acknowledged. The following is a short excerpt from a book by Zecharia Sitchin called 'Genesis Revisited'.
-----------------------------------------------------------

GOLD MINING - HOW LONG AGO?

Is there evidence that mining took place, in southern Africa, during the Old Stone Age? Archeological studies indicate that it was indeed so.

Realizing that sites of abandoned ancient mines may indicate where gold could be found, South Africa's leading mining corporation, the Anglo-American Corporation, in the 1970s engaged archeologists to look for such ancient mines. Published reports (in the corporation's journal Optima) detail the discovery in Swaziland and other sites in South Africa of extensive mining areas with shafts to depths of 50 feet. Stone objects and charcoal remains established dates of 35,000 & 46,000 & 60,000 B.C. for these sites. The archeologists and anthropologists who joined in dating the finds believed that mining technology was used in southern Africa "during much of the period subsequent to 100,000 B.C."

In September 1988, a team of international physicists came to South Africa to verify the age of human habitats in Swaziland and Zululand. The most modern techniques indicated an age of 80,000 to 115,000 years.

Regarding the most ancient gold mines of Monotapa in southern Zimbabwe, Zulu legends hold that they were worked by "artificially produced flesh and blood slaves created by the First People." These slaves, the Zulu legends recount, "went into battle with the Ape-Man" when "the great war star appeared in the sky" (see Indaba My Children, by the Zulu medicine man Credo Vusamazulu Mutwa).

-----------------------------------------------------------

Respectfully yours,
dragonfly
Tree in the Forest
(04/01/2001; 18:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51196)
Auspec
I agree with you Auspec. I do not refer to any particular group as being exclusive to the power elite and I have found nothing on David Guyatts site that would indicate that. What I was trying to do, was to acquaint our new poster as politely as possible with the conclusion that I think most of us here have come to, namely that there exists a nefarious power elite whose goal appears to be divide and conquer. The fact is that Jews and Arabs have a long history of peaceful co-existence and I find that the sudden appearance of enmity is suspect especially in view of the fact that there resides vast oil deposits in the region in question. Keeping this area unstable may be to the cabal's advantage. And of course oil and gold are very much linked as we have seen (though there are apparently at least a few dissenters even on this topic!) To further elaborate, it would appear that the Balkans have been a very convenient flashpoint for "them" and they have apparently used it to trigger WWI, WWII and are possibly using it again to help trigger WWIII. The enmity here may have been planted centuries ago but "they" continue to fan it at every opportunity. It is also possible that if one could wave a magic wand and make the cabal disappear, 60% or 70% of current world wide conflicts would either disappear or be significantly attenuated. I also believe that the "protests" in Florida over the last US presidential election were set up, rigged, FAKE! There is evidence many so called "spontaneous" demonstrations are planned. The WTO demonstrations in Seattle too. If this is true, then we should NOT go along with this baloney and get swept up ourselves into these fake confrontations. We should stand above these rigged quarrels. Otherwise we play into "their" hands. This is what I am trying to say. Clear?
auspec
(04/01/2001; 18:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51197)
TIF----------- CLEAR
Worthy of a Repost"It is also possible that if one could wave a magic wand and make the cabal disappear, 60% or 70% of current world wide conflicts would either disappear or be significantly attenuated." END

Bingo Brother!
Tree in the Forest
(04/01/2001; 18:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51198)
dragonfly
Very interesting. There was a book written by Murry Hope with a title something like "Atlantis: Myth or Reality?" also citing Plato's report of Solon's conversation in Egypt. A little off topic since she did not reference gold at all but apparently we have lost much of our history and archeologists are loathe to risk their professional reputation investigating these topics. Too bad.
Horatio
(04/01/2001; 19:34:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51199)
The Cabel Take a look at this
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm#tquotns
Peter Asher
(04/01/2001; 20:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51200)
Bubble data

Excerpt from an e-mail from a semi-retired Real Estate agent.

>>>>>the real estate market has slowed down considerably as you can well imagine.
The rental market is at a stand still here in the Hamptons. Everyone awaits the
bottom and a case of dire need, signals that the wise owner will not emit.<<<<<

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/01/2001; 20:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51201)
Gandalf the White
Spent all day in the woods searching out new areas. Have three pounds to show for it. One area really looks promising. Good to have the extra hour of daylight to work with. They are smaller this year and thus harder to find. Let me know how you do!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/01/2001; 20:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51202)
Challenge accepted.
.
ROSEBUD99
(04/01/2001; 20:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51203)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
I have been lurking for about a year and hardly ever miss a day reading the thoughts of all these great knights. I wish to thank MK for this wonderful site and humbly wish to submit my idea for the 5th horseman.

The 5th horseman has been with us all along. He has been responsible either directly or indirectly for bringing forth the other horseman. He is the general of the horseman, always having remained in the background except for small periods in the past. Now he has galloped to the forefront to take charge of the battle at this most critical time. Indeed, most think of him as a white knight instead of a rogue Horseman. Just look at his recent past actions.

He rescued Asia when the contagion Horseman threatened to engulf the world. He calmed the US when fears were heightening from the Y2K Horseman. He told us that energy was not as important in the "New Era" as the Oil Horseman rode from the east, tripling prices as he went. He has talked the Dollar up through his underling Dept. of Treasure as the Euro Horseman was born and tried to find its legs. He has made it clear that productivity is the driving force behind the economy and continues unabated to this day. He has also dropped interest rates in his support of the markets when The Stock Market Meltdown Horseman was slashing and pillaging the countryside.

He is the "FED". The most diabolical of the entire Horseman. Why?? Because all direct challenges have been soundly defeated. Only through his actions will the true nature of this beast be revealed. Much like the stock market bull was defeated not by an event, but just by the simple laws of math. Only in this way will the dark Horseman side of the FED be shown for all to see. Even now he works feverishly pumping money into the system and lowering rates. One day in the future people all over the world will decide that maybe they have to many dollars. That maybe the dollar is not worth what it says its worth. Then that change at the edge will start to grow, soon to become a flood of dollars being changed for��for�.GOLD.
So it will not be an event that triggers this flood. For all "Events" end. It must be a change in perceptions, much like the drops of rain that are at the beginning of every flood. For each time the FED Horseman succeeds, he actually fails, bringing on the true nature of the beast.
The Hoople
(04/01/2001; 20:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51204)
+++++ $262.70 +++++
Cabal power rules a bit longer. COMEX beats down overnight rallies as if on cue. But when it gets away from them oh, what a sight to behold. Worth the price of admission. And gold is the ticket.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/01/2001; 20:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51205)
If this is an April Fools joke, then I admit to being had!
Bear in mind you have taken the liberty to set the terms for this challenge. Certainly you have not been so strident as to place a post bashing Christianity outright. It is the sum total of your statements invoking Christianity, your attitude (IMHO) towards the faithful, and your insistence that there is nothing which one can do in this life but accept a predetermined fate, which lead me to make the assertion. This is my opinion. I speak for no one else.

The examples that follow are from the last month alone.
Solomon Weaver
(04/01/2001; 20:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51206)
Olive Pits...Basmati Rice....Banana Peels
Yo Randy

(3/31/2001; 17:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51150)

I cannot take credit for identifying Basmati rice as "semi-numismatic".....

But perhaps you remember how long ago on this forum, I claimed that "but for convention, gold would be worth no more than banana peels".

- - - - - - - - - - - -

Many new names here since I used to post......

I have been very busy, working in the field of genetic technologies. It is an area which is moving fast forward, like computers did in the late 80s early 90s. It is one more stone in the phenomenal divide between the people of the techno world and the people of the land.

- - - - - - - - - - - -

I actually locked up a little more of my net worth into physical gold and silver than I "should have"......I am not yet in a liquidity crisis...but my wife and children and I are forgoing some vacation this year to "save"...while the metal sits quietly......I just don't have the heart to sell....I am so convinced that we will all be vindicated....but when..when....when.

- - - - - - - - - - - -

In reading through lately, it seems like our esteemed posters are not posting as many links...perhaps just the days I visited.

Poor old Solomon
R Powell
(04/01/2001; 21:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51207)
Company items needed
for the Stealin Gold from Stagecoaches Ltd.
Soloman, I'll add your items to the list.
faster horses
more money
older whiskey
younger women
better olive pits
and more links
I wholeheartedly agree.
Rich
IronHead
(04/01/2001; 21:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51208)
+++++++$251.725 US.+++++++
Realize they boyz don't trade incrememts of cents; just putting the cap on a possible tie. Primary reason for above no. is I'm trying to fill a fifty tube of 1/10th ozers and would very much like a mini-phily to add to the tweagles and leafs, maple that is.

Rudimentary reasoning aside; support will be taken out big-time as the boyz have mega nanos to accomplish the task of bilking any latent paper bulls that think "It can't go any lower!" With the whipsawed erstwhile bouncing around like a ping pong ball in a windtunnel, the boyz will snap trap em into a mini short cut to the lu lu bin. Sayonara paper pontifs!!
SHIFTY
(04/01/2001; 21:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51209)
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmPeriodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,840.26 + Dow 9878.78 = 11,719.04 divide by 2 = 5859.52 Ponzi

Up 142.79 from last week.

I thank you Sir RossL for the link.


$hifty
Curious
(04/01/2001; 22:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51210)
***************THE NEW FIFTH HORSEMAN *****************************
The new fifth horseman is the 10th planet NIBIRU as explained by Jeramiah Stichin that is in orbit around our Sun and will come closer to the earth sometime between now and the year 2012. The gravitational attraction will cause the pole shift predicted by Edgar Cayce. This time also coincides with the end of the Mayan Calendar. The Hopi Indian prophesies also predict a major event is coming soon. Nostramadus also predicted a Terror from the sky. Other Seers predict massive changes in the earth during the next few years including a substantial increase in the width of the Mississippi River, the disappearance of much of California and other catastropic events as noted on the various earth changes maps.

There is speculation that the aliens even created the religions on Earth since there are amazing similiarities between all of the major religions. This was an effort to control the people so that they would mine the gold that they needed. Gold has been the standard of value for at least 6000 years and maybe longer. If the 10th planet comes by every 3600 years, the aliens could well have convinced the people of the value of gold during a previous visit 7200 years ago so that it would be mined and available when they came by again. Otherwise there is no good reason why anyone would want thousands of tons of gold so it could sit in the vault doing nothing except to serve as a theoritical backing for a paper money system.

When the 10th planet gets closer, the aliens will land to pick up the gold. The secret societies such as the Masons and others, the New World Order, and the Illuminati are either heavily influenced by the aliens or are descendants of the aliens. They want to be able to trade the huge quanities of gold for privileges and possible ascention to the 10 planet and an extended healthy life off of this planet Earth. People with no gold will have no bargaining position and will be left behind on a planet with severe distruction caused by the pole shift or they will be enslaved. The stock market will have crashed, the economy will have been destroyed and millions of people will be starving with inadequate food and water. Energy supplies will be restricted and the infastructure will collapse during if not before the pole shift.

There is a theory that Aliens created the human race here or that the human race is a hybrid of earlier life forms and alien genes. There is no real evidence of a progression from earlier forms to man that suddenly appeared. The Central Bankers know about this from the elite 12 families or the 300 families that control the majority of the wealth of the planet. They have sufficient wealth to cause the rises in the stock market, to sell at the top, and to cause severe declines in the market, so they can buy at the bottom and use these swings to add to their wealth. In this manner, they can accumulate more gold to trade to the aliens.

If all of the Black (hidden) gold does actually exist, these elite super rich people would want to control this gold too and they will try to suppress the knowledge of this gold so that the value of their existing gold does not collapse. With all of these horsemen and potential catastrophies, we will have our hands full trying to survive.
SHIFTY
(04/01/2001; 23:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51211)
Curious
http://mars-earth.com/sitchin.htmZecharia Sitchin The 12th Planet

You were close.

$hifty
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/01/2001; 23:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51212)
must have hit a premature button, sorry! References from March 2001.
The following are from your posts in March. As I do not wish to peck at this keyboard to the wee hours, as I do not wish to be accused of taking your statements out of context, I will give the post #.

#49314 "If you are Christian, though the little babe was Jewish-...." True enough. Yet there is no real basis to use that sentence for your post. Was it added to merely push buttons?

#49463 "Another influence is that most have an inability to free their minds from the constraints put there from birth by 'well-meaning' parents...." I do not know how it is in the UK, but in the US this is a common argument used to deride Christian beliefs and practices.

"I honestly believe that those who can free their minds--open them fully, remove all indoctrination from false beliefs, take a good look at the history of man--...." This is also used in the US as code, if you will, for dismissing the concerns of Christians.

#50728 "I never saw no painting of Christ with a sword strapped to His belt." All of your posts are articulate, yet you use the double negative in this response. In the US it is a frequent practice to demean Christians as being uneducated by virtue of their beliefs, and nothing else. I light of your otherwise impeccable use of the English language (I know how could you not!) this stood out to me. Perhaps no one else viewed it that way, realize that this is my perception and is used in forming my opinion.

"Well America was the first and only country to use them- those that live by atomic weapons shall die......" IMHO you are mocking a Christian belief.

#50716 "Christianity and only guns have made you free, and can keep you free? What would Christ have thought about that? (I am not a Christian but have studied theology.)" IMHO the posters were referring to the exercise of the right to freedom of religion and their right to keep and bear arms as essential expressions of a free people. Your questioning Christ's take on your assertion, coupled with your having "studied theology" I have taken as your attempt to straighten out the misinformed Christians. This is a most common practice in the US news media.

#50774 "THOSE WHO HAVE THE (MOST)GOLD MAKE THE RULES

THAT IS THE GOLDEN RULE OF ALL RULES IT IS BEHIND EVERYTHING,IT CONTROLS EVERY FACET OF YOUR LIFE" Christian faith is not predicated on an amount of gold. I find the usage of "GOLDEN RULE" to be a pun in bad taste (even when posted on a Gold Forum).

#50756 Re: a golden gun, "What a wonderful Christmas present they would make for your wife and kids. It would also please Christ (according to most of you) on His birthday- gold, and a gun. I am sure from what I have read he would sell more gold that way than with coins." This is a blatant smear against Christians wishing to exercise their 2nd Amendment right. IMHO it is in bad taste and uncalled for.

"You Christians, serve your Lord, do as the bible says- get a gun, not any gun, but an MK Golden Gun".(I like the ring)" This is outrageous and offensive. It was uncalled for, you knew what the response would be to that post.


I realize that words on a page do not convey the depth of nuance as one receives in a phone call or in person. These passages are what I based my assertion upon. I find this trend for the month of March alone too compelling to chalk up to British humor. IMHO these passages convey a disdain for Christians and their beliefs. I realize not all Christians are of the same mind regarding all issues. I just find it in bad taste to mock people for their religious beliefs. Again, this is my opinion from what I have read from your posts.

***********************************************************

If the bashing of Christianity is not an agenda that resides in your heart, then I offer my most sincere apology.

************************************************************


Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 23:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51213)
stocks LIES and tickertape
Your accusation and lie for all to read about me, was no joke, and neither was my reply.

Do not fluff, or skirt round the issue. I, as any knight would (going along with the accepted spirit) demand an apology.

You accused me of Christianity bashing. Those are strong words, from someone who picks up on such small irrelevant things when they have been contained in a very friendly, short, post edifying a fellow poster.

I await that apology on the issue stated. Once again, this is no joke - April, or otherwise.

Also, I have NEVER said there is nothing we can do about our future. That is NOT in my philosophy.

I am NOT buddhist, though would respect the choice of those who are, as I would with ANY religion.

Positive thinking does not allow you to walk through a brick wall, or, has everyone who has tried it have found, stop TPTB, over the many centuries they have operated.

You may try, as Reg Howe did, if you have your years to waste. I prefer to use the opposing force (against them) to gain benefit, and that has ALWAYS been my message in my posts, which you have never read for their positive content but only to choose something upon which to attack me. Once or twice, I can take, but it had become a habit ( a bad one) with you.

This time, you went too far. Stirring up emotion in others by LIES cannot be permitted.

If I had said nothing, new posters would have believed them.
kosher
(04/01/2001; 23:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51214)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****

It will be the demise of US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Let's see what happened in the first quarter of 2001. NASDAQ continued its collapse (-~30%), while the 'real economy' stocks came under pressure and e.g. DOW lost (-~10%). Yet, the almighty dollar gained ~3.5%. Insane but true. The dollar's gain was, almost exactly, Gold's loss (-3.4%). Gold will rule when the dollar is gone as a refuge in troubled times. Nothing will be able to save US dollar when the credit bubble burst.

kosher
(04/01/2001; 23:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51215)
+++++ $255.15 +++++
I want to continue to indulge myself and buy more.
tg
(04/01/2001; 23:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51216)
stocks,lies, tt
Time to do the christian thing and turn the other cheek. I think your just looking for a fight.

Honi soit qui mal es pense
Goldfly
(04/01/2001; 23:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51217)
Panda and SLATT
Especially SLATT
This is getting really really REALLY old. I'm amazed at least one of you haven't had your code yanked.

Panda if I were you, I would simply not respond. Maybe (if that were a little too much) you could post saying "I'm ignoring SLATT on Goldfly's advice, sorry for not adding any further episodes to this riviting adventure" or some such.

SLATT: Don't you have anything better to do?
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 23:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51218)
stock LIES and ticker tape

Only read your added post.

This is a load of crap and you know it. You were careful not to print the posts to which they refer. There was nothing offensive about Christianity, I was pointing out, as many, many Christians would, that to identify Christianity with gun worship seemed a little odd.

Your right to carry guns, or do anything else, which concerns all within a nation should stand on its own merits and not be justified by religion - any religion, as there are many religions out there and all do not think alike - not even within their own.

There was no evidence of Christianity 'bashing'. You are fluffing the issue - as always. Which comes as no surprise, it is only what I expected.

elevator guy
(04/01/2001; 23:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51219)
Pandagold and Christianity, +SLATT
I dont hink Panda goes out of his way to disparage Christians, although his comments sometimes veer towards the satirical.

Look at it this way, PG is insightful, satirical, critical, negative, humorous, observant, about a host of things.

By his own admission, he is not a Christian, so do you really expect someone on "the outside" of our faith to have anything really positive to say?

If we got mad at all the non-Christians who deride Christian beleifs, we would be mad all the time, because there an awful lot of them. What are we going to do? Get pissed off at the scorners? I don't think this works the righteousness of God, nor is it the will of our Saviour that we become defensive. Jesus can hold His own against the satirical jibes of Pandagold.

If you really belive in Jesus, you should know that His Holy Spirit is affecting the hearts of the scorners much more than those of nuetral opinion.

But getting back to it, Pandagold does not deride Christianity so much as he does some commonly held beleifs, that some Christians hold. It is a political discussion, not essentially a spiritual one. Just as there is room in Gods house for some Christians to be Republican, and it is ok for some to be Democrats, (though I pity them)(thats a joke, ok?) in like manner there are some beliefs, that although traditionally associated with Christianity, are not essentially Biblical. So if Pandagold is critical of some of our cherished beliefs, I do not view that as an attack on Christians, or Christianity.

Pandagold's remarks are very understandable for a man living in a post-Christian society. I think there are now more Mosques than churches now. I personally believe that Britains apostacy from fundamental Christianity is the cause for their demise as a dominant world power, but that is just my suspicion. Anyway, none of this comes as a surprise at all, considering the role of the Euro state in end times prophecy.

Panda's remarks are provocative, stimulating, and insightful, and to the point as relates the NWO, and the role of gold in the NWO. He sees through the fluff of a lot of the spin that comes out of the media machine, and I like that.

Lets not try to kick the non-Christains out of our little club. Remember that you once were not a Christain either, and only by the obedience and love of another of God's family, and the pre-venient grace of God, you were adopted in. So try to use a little of your considerable charisma that God gave you, and bring others in, too. I speak to anyone who will listen, and not to a specific person here.

I ask you, Pandagold, to stay, and continue to add to the disscussion. And in your quest for understanding, try to be tolerant of Christians, too.
Pandagold
(04/01/2001; 23:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51220)
Goldfly and all

I am so sorry for you all that you have had to put up with this. I mean that most sincerely.

I will turn in my own code. I feel disgusted by the whole episode. What is more, I have waisted time and energy, as will many of you.

Goodbye to those who did get something positive from my posts, if it only made you think from a different perspective.

I am pleased that some posters have been moved to search deeper, so perhaps my time was not wasted too much.
Goldfly
(04/02/2001; 00:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51221)
Pandagold
Not my intent to chase you off, just to throw cold water on a thread that is little more than a cat fight.

It should be evident by now that nothing can be gained in it's continuance.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Sierra Madre
(04/02/2001; 00:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51222)
Ciao, Panda!

Sorry to see you go! You had some interesting things to say and a sophisticated point of view.

But as ole Harry S. Truman said, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen."

Here's hoping you change your mind. Things are going to get real interesting very soon.

Sierra
Gandalf the White
(04/02/2001; 01:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51223)
Sir RossL and SIR $hifty --- Re: PONZI chart
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
Nasdaq 1,840.26 + Dow 9878.78 = 11,719.04 divide by 2 = 5859.52 Ponzi
Up 142.79 from last week.
*****Looks as if the Hobbits were close in the design level of the First Sublevel for the PONZI --- Keep those digging tools handy as they will be needed again soon.
<;-)




IronHead
(04/02/2001; 01:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51224)
Randy and ORO - A Question For Two Of The Best Bookends
Good Sirs - If either of you would care to tackle this one, it could be of possible interest.

Recent (past 4-5 days) discussions with family, friends, and business associates in Japan, have yielded an interesting, (albeit not expected by me) commentary that a heavy deflationary environment is exploding throughout the Japanese economy.

As I'm in the process of establishing a representative relationship with numerous Japanese companies to broker both product and processes here in the US, the overwhelming positive response has had me a bit baffled. The recent devaluation of the yen is probably a contributing factor, but from general reaction I'm getting, it is the drastic deflation of price and profit for these companies, that has them very eager to enter our American markets.

With the inumerable variables associated with Japan's past 11 years since the bubble popped - what are your opinions of how and why this is suddenly taking place? Assuming it is - (as you've all probably gathered, I'm an anectdotal thinker at best, with few scholastic resources for determining what is happening within other's dialectic realm).

If the deflationary spiral is occuring in Japan, might we in the Americas be poised to follow, or divert? The forum's age old inflation vs. deflation question - taking place in real time over there.

Footnote to Sir Oro and All: Your recent expressions of disdain for things of a hierarchic or monarchial nature, left me thinking perhaps my use of "Sir" in addressing others was an affirmation or agreement with the King's court of yore and today. That is not my intention at all. It emanates from my interaction with Asian people, particularly Japanese, where the use of "san" is added when addressing anyone, as a sign of respect. Trying to place others before oneself is the watchword, thus the use of sir or lady, rather than san. How do you like Orosan?

If you were to know me, you would find my adherence to the King's edict, to be on the order of some other independent thinkers here, such as Sirs HBM and Journeyman, (whom I admire greatly).

Salutations,
IronHead
Pandagold
(04/02/2001; 02:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51225)
Sierra Madre

Ciao! Nothing to do with heat. You say things are going to get interesting soon. To me, they ARE interesting NOW!

This is my message I leave you with.

Don't get side tracked by details, especially ones based on statistics (you know what Mark Twain and others have said about those.) Government published figures, and media hype have as much crediblity as a Clinton statement on oath.

Nothing, repeat NOTHING in the financial world is ever what it seems.

Again - THINGS ARE INTERESTING NOW!

And it is a good time to make money once you see the light, as MANY are now doing, who is moving things, and where THEY are moving things.

The TRUTH becomes more evident every day, if you keep your eyes open and free from the dust they throw in them

CIAO again
Mr Gresham
(04/02/2001; 02:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51226)
Contests
Those contest entries are amazing! It really brings out the best in all regulars, as well as the thrill I get seeing de-lurkers join in, with some great thoughts and writing, too. Thanks for giving them to us; best reads I've had this weekend.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/2001; 02:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51227)
"Round Table or Kindergarten Court?"
Sir Goldfly,
Excellent post #51217...I would have suggested it for the HOF but GOLD was not the topic.

The King must be on leave from the castle, for he would not allow the tables and the chairs to be overturned and broken.
I am sure that he would suggest for the "KIDS" to exchange emails and joust outside of the court.

I enjoy both of their inputs and would miss their posts. Both are equally at fault for keeping this up!!!, and I do not care who started it first. But, If the King was to exile one, he in all fairness would have to exile both.

This does not have to happen. Mabey the king could ask them to GROW UP!
This way all can benifit from both of their wisdoms and points of view.

May your cup overflow,

SOTG
justamereBear
(04/02/2001; 02:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51228)
Iron Head

Excuse me, since the message was not directed at me, but during the last couple to three months, there seems to be a national concensus among the business people that the only way to pull Japan out of this mess they are, and have been in for over 10 years, is to export. (very Japanese that concensus) I would bet that you have not been in SERIOUS discussion with them for more than 3 months. (I had guests from Japan who left about a week and a half ago.)

On balance, I think that;
-Opportunity knocks for you.
-That is probably the best solution for the Japanese. (providing the rest of the world does not follow, which I think it will)

(I have a greater than usual interest in Japan. My second wife was a Japanese I met in Tokyo, just prior to the meltdown.) (There were only 2 :-) )

j'Bear

Tannehill
(04/02/2001; 02:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51229)
Contests
Sorry to ride in so late, must be the daylight savings time change, never can get the hang of it.


****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)
--------------

A lean, gaunt stranger with sunken eyes appeared suddenly at the campfire, he spit on your hand. I didn't come in the sunshine, because I wanted to slip up on you fellows without your knowing it. But your forefathers have known me. You have hear the "wise ones" predict this time it is different, well I tell you --- it is no different from any other greedy bubble ever produced by mankind, there will be no harmony. Even though you clamor for me, I am not available. I am Scaracity, the fifth horseman, and will not be available to you at any cost, this will echo in your ears. Verily, verily I say unto you, you have had your seven fat years leading to the apex, now there will be seven lean years. You dared believe that the old rule of scaricity and abundance did not apply to technology, that it would be buenaventura forever. hah! You have sown the virtual world of nothingness on your computers, and now you will be left to try and eat the unleaven virtual bread. You can not live in a virtual house, you are not warmed by a virtual fire. You have taken good and glorious things provided to you and produced only virtual products from it. You have encapsulated vast quantities of gold and silver in your electronic gadets, never to be recovered. Thus mortal men are doomed to toil underground to provide the greedy with the shiny metals of wealth. Those that have created this bubble have stood on the shoulder of giants. The knowledge was there, but did anyone ask should we do this? The world wants more and more physical things and you let you leaders give you those virtual derivatives, no longer I say, I demand physical and there is not enough to go around. Scarcity will become abundant, ha ha ha.....up is down, right is wrong, the world is topsy-turvey, there is a newmont rising, I read minds and play god, you will bow to Scaracity.




+++++ (Price Guess) +++++

+++++($256.60)+++++
Why this price, because sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down and sometimes it is just right, goldielocks made me say that.

That's all from Tannehill
justamereBear
(04/02/2001; 03:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51230)
SLaTT PandaGold Enough Already

SLaTT
This is to much. I have only had one occassion to communicate with you. I will not again.

Pandagold
Stop moaning, man, and get on with it. There is this little thing on the right of your screen that makes the words go by so fast you cannot read them.

If I understand the rules of the forum, religion is NOT an appropriate subject.

j'Bear

Black Blade
(04/02/2001; 03:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51231)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****


The Old Fifth Horseman "Y2K" has passed on without much visible damage. This may have been because of planning and a concerted effort to avoid a potential disaster. It is true that there were several "problems" attributed to the date sensitive SCADA chips, but nothing that could be perceived as apocalyptic in nature. Y2K was a foreseen event in the making with a definite identifiable deadline. We are not so lucky with the other "Horsemen" and certainly not with the "New Fifth Horseman."

ENERGY AND THE NEW ECONOMY

The "New Fifth Horseman" has already come to the forefront and has begun to effect the economy. The "New Fifth Horseman" is the "Energy Crisis." It would be easy to say that "Rising Oil" is the same, however, although the "Rising Oil Horseman" is closely related to the "Energy Crisis," The "Energy Crisis" encompasses many other components as well. We have heard from several so-called experts that energy is no longer important to the economy since we now have entered in the age of the "New Economy." Nothing could be further from the truth. The "New Economy" is one that relies heavily on the internet, computers, telecommunications, etc. The "New Economy" voraciously devours incredible amounts of energy. It is estimated that a new server farm is built every week. These energy farms consume as much energy as some small US cities. The "New Economy" that the so-called experts said was supposed to save energy is actually draining energy at a rate much faster than can be replaced. The biggest of these farms use a whopping 120 megawatts around the clock, equal to the energy use of 120,000 homes and enough to merit a new mid-sized plant to serve each facility.

Every postwar recession has been preceded by an "Energy Crisis." The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo resulted in high gasoline prices and rationing. Price controls were enacted and the problem only became more critical. The oil crisis of 1979 threw the US into recession once again. The current "Energy Crisis" has sparked the cry of recession in the financial media. An "Energy Crisis" is being recognized by some well informed students of the economy and a growing number of politicians and they well know that the result will likely be an inflationary recession that will surpass the "Energy Crises" of the past.

The Old and New economy debate can be misleading. The future economy is likely to blend traditional business (Old Economy) with new developments and inventions (New Economy). The question is where does petroleum fit into this future economy? It is only obvious to even the most causal observer that energy and petrochemical use will grow several fold because they are so embedded in our economic life and power the engine of economic growth. Light Sweet Crude Oil has rebounded from a low of about $10.00/bbl to recently over $38.00/bbl. The higher costs of petroleum have resulted in higher transportation costs, and earnings warnings by manufacturers.

FINITE OIL

It is likely that all the major oil basins or provinces have been found and the world is in effect, truly running out of oil. At least out of easily exploited cheap conventional oil. The peak year for oil discoveries in the US was in 1930, and the peak for worldwide oil discoveries was in 1962. Discovery rates have steadily fallen since. Most increases in oil production since then have come from technological advances that were applied to already discovered oil fields. 3-D Seismic and horizontal drilling techniques improved oil recovery in known fields, but have not resulted in any significant discoveries of major fields.

Energy is derived from many sources and not just oil. Energy drives the US economy and we are falling behind in exploration and production of cheap energy. In fact the days of cheap energy are gone forever. Due to the need for other sources of energy and environmental regulations there has been a shift toward clean burning natural gas. Here we are experiencing higher costs and short supply as well.

NATURAL GAS

Due to environmental concerns there has been a shift toward Natural Gas fired power plants. Here we have a severe shortage as well. In the US. Natural gas prices have risen from $2.85 Mbtu earlier this year to a recent $5.40 Mbtu. Natural gas is used to generate about 25 percent of the nation's electricity but it is also in short supply, as a result of several years of mild winters, low demand, and flagging drilling activity. About 95% of all new power plants are natural gas fired. Demand is rising as Natural Gas is a "clean" fuel for electric power generation. The Gas Research Institute and the National Petroleum Council (NPC) state that demand will continue to increase at the rate of 32 TCF over the next 25 to 30 years. Security analysts at Dan Rauscher Wessels Inc. project that more than 275 new natural gas-fired power plants are planned to begin operation by 2006 and consume about 8.5 TCF/year. In short - there simply isn't going to be enough production to feed these power plants.

THE EMERGING ENERGY CRISIS

The Northwest Power Planning Council is an agency that includes the states Idaho, Oregon, Montana and Washington. They report that demand for electricity has grown 24 percent in the past decade while new generation has grown only 4 percent. When the state of California is factored in, the gap between supply and demand is much greater. The "Energy Crisis" situation is also becoming dangerously acute on the east coast of the US as well. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham recently stated that the situation is critical and that New England may be subject to rolling blackouts as early as this summer. As each new area is affected, Wall Street investors become more shaken and lose confidence in the economy. Add to this the retirement of older facilities of other "dirty" fuels and the numerous environmental regulations soon due to go into effect and you get the "big picture."

LACK OF PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION

Another major problem that is clearly pointed out in the March 2001 issue of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) "Explorer" is that of staffing. There is an acute shortage of skilled and experienced geophysicists. The retirement of staff and loss of staff during the days of low petroleum prices has resulted in a severe shortage of competent personnel. It should be noted that the schools do not graduate many skilled individuals in the geosciences as most students do not wish to enter into an unstable career. Those days are about to change however. In spite of the unintelligible mumblings of environmentalists, energy demand necessitates an aggressive campaign to discover more sources of energy. Even nuclear power could become fashionable again. The petroleum industry has moved on to recruit math and physics majors at the nation's educational institutions. The problem is that the intense competition with a multitude of industries such as technology and teaching for example make recruitment in what is perceived as an unstable industry as a "tough sell." It should also be noted that many labor positions in the petroleum industry are not the best paid and are physically demanding. Experienced people have left and are not coming back, and younger potential workers are more inclined to choose easier work for comparable pay.

The shortage of drill rigs continues to plague the industry as well. It is estimated that at most there will be about 1250 drill rigs available for exploration by next summer. Currently there are about 1150 (about 950 drilling for natural gas). Most manufacturers of drill rigs either went out of business or into other pursuits during the era of low petroleum prices. They are reluctant to get back in while they are still licking their wounds. Some exploration and production companies are scavenging the junkyards for old rigs and parts in order to increase production. As a result, natural gas prices are destined to rise. It should be noted that natural gas storage is at a record low and the lack of permitting to construct new natural gas pipelines has also had a severe impact.

HYDROELECTRIC POWER

Adding to the Northwest's energy worries is a severe drought, shrinking reservoirs behind some of the World's biggest hydroelectric dams to their lowest levels in 25 years and cutting deeply into available supplies. During years with normal rainfall, Hydro-power accounts for about 70 percent of Washington state's electricity. During the summer months the Northwest supplies California with a substantial amount of power. This summer it appears that California will have to look elsewhere. Recently hydro-geologists for the state of California announced that the snowpack levels in the Sierra's are only at 60% of normal. A disaster is in the making.

COAL

Coal is an important source of power in the US. Coal is considered a "dirty" fuel. Environmental regulations require that sulfur emissions be reduced in order to reduce the effects of acid rain. The largest source of low sulfur coal comes from the western US. The state of Wyoming supplies a major portion of the US low-sulfur coal requirements. A potentially large source of low-sulfur coal is in the recently created Escalante Staircase National Monument in southern Utah. This source is now off-limits. The major problem for coal as a source of power is that when power plants use up their "carbon credits" they must either shutdown for the rest of the year or purchase new "carbon credits" on the open market. Therefore coal as a major source of fuel for power going forward could be limited.

NUCLEAR

There's a lot of political and environmental opposition to nuclear energy. The Chernobyl and Three Mile Island incidents have frightened many citizens about the potential for a disaster. Nuclear power could go a long way toward supplying much of the US energy needs. It can supply clean energy at a competitive cost. However, there have been no new permits for nuclear power plants in over 25 years. Recently both Vice President Dick Cheney and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham have suggested that nuclear power should be a consideration.

FAILING ELECTRICAL GRID

Add to this the widespread public opposition to placing building electrical power plants anywhere near their neighborhood, and there were not many incentives for power plant construction. The "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) mentality has also forced political leaders to also oppose construction. In the Western states it has been 10 years since a major power plant was brought on line. Now there is a rush to build power plants. Virtually all new planned power plants are natural gas fired.

Years of neglect have resulted in an aging power grid. There is simply not enough infrastructure to transmit power for the burgeoning "New Economy." The 203,600-mile high voltage network linking power plants to neighborhood distribution lines are falling into disrepair. There have been few changes in 50 years. Electrical power distribution now travels ever greater distances to reach more lucrative markets. This is putting a huge strain on the system, leading to bottlenecks that often create shortages rather than ease them. Upgrades are still uneconomic because the transmission rates grid operators can charge are still tightly regulated, leaving them little financial incentive to invest in their aging lines.

CONCLUSION

The era of "Cheap Energy" is over. The cost of power will increase and the costs will be passed on to the consumer resulting in inflation and tightly squeezed profit margins for US businesses. The "New Economy" will consume ever greater amounts of energy. The ability to produce energy is hampered by an array to regulations, lack of personnel and equipment, and a failing distribution infrastructure. In short, we are in an "Energy Crisis" and it will get much worse. The "New Fifth Horseman" is really not so new, but is now becoming recognized as a real threat to the US economy. As in the past, gold will serve as a "lifeboat" to help the prepared to navigate these dangerous waters. Gold rose in value during economic uncertainty while other "investments" dragged down the unprepared into the depths of despair.

- Black Blade

Black Blade
(04/02/2001; 03:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51232)
Early Snow Melt Adds to Power Woes
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/03/31/MN88930.DTLSnippit:

Beautiful spring weather has started to melt the winter snowpack, dimming hopes that California's energy grid will get much help from hydroelectric power this summer. "This is a blow from Mother Nature," said Christy Dennis, a spokeswoman for the Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

John Harrison, a spokesman for the Northwest Power Planning Council, said the situation in the Northwest, which has had the driest winter in years, meant California could expect little help from the north. "It's unlikely there will be any power to ship south," he said.

Black Blade: This adds a new wrinkle to an already bad energy situation. Remember that California alone is the World's 6th largest economy.
Black Blade
(04/02/2001; 04:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51233)
Power woes put nuclear in new light
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/trib/20010401/lo/power_woes_put_nuclear_in_new_light_1.html
Snippit:

The nuclear industry, encouraged by the Bush administration, is beginning to see new life in its once-moribund corner of the world. Capitalizing on high natural gas prices, fears about California's energy problems and what they say are technological improvements, utilities such as Chicago-based Exelon Corp. (NYSE:EXC) are taking steps once thought inconceivable to expand the use of nuclear power.

Black Blade: When the chips are down, even nuclear becomes "fashionable." Can you smell the desperation?
US_Army(RET)
(04/02/2001; 05:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51234)
Significant Omission (?)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA20E3EB8%2D067E%2D4F71%2DA94D%2D548505F052B0%7D&siteid=mktwThe sound of "panic" is getting louder.

Out of long term habit, one of my first checks of reading the world happenings every AM, is viewing CBS Marketwatch (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/) --- after the BBC, Jerusalem Post and Arabic News (just to get a rounded "perspective" of current "untruths").
Now this morning MW has a really interesting item, especially to those of us that may view reality from a little different angle then most. Is in the "commentary" section, SHAWN LANGLOIS (No foolin' around). - More bang for your investment buck 10 suggested destinations for added financial security

--------------
First Para's:

"...But fret not. The stock market isn't the only place to make or preserve your fortune, and now that the bears are feasting on Wall Street, it might be time to financially reinvent yourself.
We here at CBS.MarketWatch.com feel it our duty to highlight alternate fiscal choices. So on this first day of April we offer 10 "safer" places to re-direct your stock market money:..."
-----------------
Anyone notice a significant omission in the presented options besides me? --- Wonder why??? Ummmm,
Again with Respect,




LeSin
(04/02/2001; 05:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51235)
Washington Agreement Questioned by ORCA at GE Forum
Thanks You Orca for your Thoughts & Questions "S"Washinton Agreement ?�
(Orca) Apr 01, 11:40

What were the factors that prompted the Washington Agreement? Aren't we now once again at about the same point?

Greenspan had declared that central banks stand ready to use their gold to control its price. The Washington agreement was a counterstatement to that which put limits in place.

So what's happened over the last 18 months? Gold has come back down to about the same street value as in Sept 1999. Lease rates are rising, although they have fallen back some as of now, but with a trend that wants to go higher. About 700 additional tonnes has been taken out of the European Central banks since that time That's in additional to the unknown quantity removed over the last 10 or 15 years. If the going rate has been in the 400 tonnes per year range, then at least 6000 tonnes is gone from the stated reserves of approx. 13000 tonnes in Europe.

So� has the direction changed? It appears not to have changed. Has the pace changed? Nope. Has the agreement had the desired effect or any affect at all? Well, what effect was it trying to achieve? If was to stop the bleeding, it appears it has not. If it was meant to restore the value to the asset, it has not. If it was to shore up the Euro, it has not. If is was meant to signal the US dealers and England to get out of the �manage gold out of existence� game, it has not.

Was the agreement the statement that is the first of many that play out a strategy to slowly, but inexorably remove all the gold from their coffers over the next 10 � 15 years? In effect, a managed blowout. Yes there will be pain but if we do this together and in managed fashion, no one will panic; the plan has been defined; the price will slowly drop; the supply lines will slowly shut down; and 10 years from now� Presto! NO MORE GOLD. Now, they can build the prefect currency and method of control.

If that is not the plan, then what is it? If they are caught in this massive dilemma as so clearly stated by Veneruso, Chapman, Hamilton, Murphy, etc, then what was is the exit plan?

Either something is very wrong with the outcome of the Washington Agreement, or the plan is to manage gold to nothing over the next decade.



Washington Agreement�
(Orca) Apr 02, 02:23

I see that the opportunity for the Washington agreement to be scrapped is a possibility. Earler today I posted what I believed were some important issues to consider, for us, but much more importantly for the signators to wth WA.

The most important factor is that the WA allows for no exit plan. It simplistically allows for sales of 400 tonnes per year, makes no statement as to how previous loans (sales) were to be repaid, does not point to a follow on plan, and by definition, (one 5 year plan followed by another, followed by another) will ensure the total eleimination af all the gold held in the European vaults.

It is easily tabulated (Veneruso) that probabably half of the gold in these European vaults has already been sold. I believe that the WA was a public relations event meant to calm down those that get excited about these things, and put a soother in our mouth. Secondly, this buys time (perhaps no more than three or four years) but enough to get the current crop of CB execs off the hook, and as the old saying goes.. pass the 'challange' on to the next guy.

So, exit strategy!. This was nothing more than a poorly thought out plan that has failed. These CB's are marching their brood over the cliff, and to be honest (if the WA was their best shot) are finished.

So what's the hope for gold? Probably pretty good. But only after its all gone frm the CB's as they can then no longer control it. Sweet irony to say the least. As the financial masinations continue, people will return to something of value.

Whats the final outcome to be? The WA was meant to soothe Europeans in to reassuring them that all was OK in CB land. Or perhaps it was meant to be the whistling that the CB's utter as they pass through the deep dark forest of danger. Perhaps it will scare away the ghosts. But by any calculation, it is not working. They are in the grips of the claws of the JP Morgans, Goldman Sachs etc. Real balls will be needed to break this bull trap. Much more than is being demonstrated today



Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/2001; 06:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51236)
************** THE FIFTH HORSEMAN**********************
*********************************************
*********THE FIFTH HORSEMAN************
*********************************************
Under the cover of darkness, in the land called Confusion, where anxieties were running high, rode in the fifth horseman. "My sons, you have done well, you make me proud but we still have more to do." The sons were so happy to see their father, but they were tired from their previous endeavors and wanted to rest. The sons TSMM, EI, AC and RO, knew that their father would not let this be for long. The sons asked "what would you like us to do now?" The father replied "I'll tell you when the time is right. IT WILL BE SOON". As the fire dwindled down he said "sleep now, we will talk some more tomorrow."The sons had to have respect for their father, he was most wise, most patient, most stealthy, but also most demanding. He was the alpha male wolf so to speak. The one who will watch the herd and look for that tell tale limp, and the perfect time to strike..

The next morning, he set the sons off on their daily chores while he made the coffee. They would report to him when they got back. "Everyone got their coffee?" he said and they all responded to the affirmative. "Well, TSMM how's the DOW and the DUCK doing?" "They are going down as planned" was the response. "Good, well AC, how's Asia?" "Great, their even giving their money away now." "Excellent, well EI is the Euro one line yet?" "It will be in January" "Good we still need a little more time anyway." "Well RO, my favorite son, how are the oil prices?" " It's going just as planned the prices arn't too high YET because that would make the infidels suspicious. So, I did the next best, I turned the valve two turns closed." "Great, Excellent! I love it when a plan comes together!" Tonight around the campfire, I put all of the pieces of the plan together for you.

The fire was in full blaze crackling and popping, and the sun was down. The reflection of the fire on their eager faces, awaiting the details of the plan, gave them a demonic appearance. "Father please tell us now!!!" So the fifth, stood in front of his children, looking like the conductor of a quartet, and told the plan.

"Ultimately for gold to go up, we have to devalue the $US, and get it off that global reserve status. The first step that TSMM is accomplishing is to change the PERCEPTION that stocks are "as good as gold". He is doing a fine job at that but it takes time, and we need this time for EI's part of the plan to completely unfold. We have to wait for the Euro to become a real physical currency, one that jingles, rather than just digital data. This will start to psychologically unite the Europeans. Then Russia joins the EU. The EU should be quite self sufficient, in time just trading amongst themselves and ME. You see, we will be just fine driving Mercedes instead of Cadillacs. We make a trade deal with EU, oil and ng at bargain prices for euros or gold, and good prices for goods and services that we need. We open the taps to Europe and close the valves to the US. Since the US only produces about 40% of their consumption, their industry will shrink by 60%. Sixty % less industry equals 60% less jobs. There will be massive unemployment, power outages, and debt default. Their credit bubble will implode, as well as derivative defaults. Their banking system will be destroyed. As they try to recover in time, our oil will be extremely expensive for them, since their money is worthless and we demand payment in gold or Euros. The US imports go up do to no productivity there, at the same time Europe is self sufficient.US industrial base will be devastated, due to no electricity, no oil, no ng, therefore no growth, no exports. The US economy will come to a screeching halt. All of the $US will come home to live on Greenspan's desk. That will be when, he will wish he had an Aladin's magic lamp to call upon the "genie greenie".

GOLD WILL RULE, and guess who owns the gold? ...M.E.

May your cups overflow,
I'm trying for my first.

SOTG


Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/2001; 06:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51237)
++++++++++++(PRICE GUESS)++++++++++
++++++++++++++++(253.755)++++++++++++++++

There is still a fair bit of time before the market crashes or bottoms out this will give the players more time to continue playing the game we know so well.

SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/2001; 06:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51238)
Repost Reason
Dear Sir's & m'Ladies,

Sorry about the repost but I forgot to include the word NEW in the contest.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/02/2001; 06:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51239)
***********The New Fifth Horseman***************
*********************************************
*********The New Fifth Horseman************
*********************************************
Under the cover of darkness, in the land called Confusion, where anxieties were running high, rode in the fifth horseman. ""My sons, you have done well, you make me proud but we still have more to do."" The sons were so happy to see their father, but they were tired from their previous endeavors and wanted to rest. The sons TSMM, EI, AC and RO, knew that their father would not let this be for long. The sons asked ""what would you like us to do now?"" The father replied ""I�'ll tell you when the time is right. IT WILL BE SOON"". As the fire dwindled down he said ""sleep now, we will talk some more tomorrow.""The sons had to have respect for their father, he was most wise, most patient, most stealthy, but also most demanding. He was the alpha male wolf so to speak. The one who will watch the herd and look for that tell tale limp, and the perfect time to strike..

The next morning, he set the sons off on their daily chores while he made the coffee. They would report to him when they got back. ""Everyone got their coffee?"" he said and they all responded to the affirmative. ""Well, TSMM how�'s the DOW and the DUCK doing?"" ""They are going down as planned"" was the response. ""Good, well AC, how�'s Asia?"" ""Great, their even giving their money away now."" ""Excellent, well EI is the Euro one line yet?"" ""It will be in January"" ""Good we still need a little more time anyway."" ""Well RO, my favorite son, how are the oil prices?"" "" It�'s going just as planned the prices arn�'t too high YET because that would make the infidels suspicious. So, I did the next best, I turned the valve two turns closed."" ""Great, Excellent! I love it when a plan comes together!"" Tonight around the campfire, I put all of the pieces of the plan together for you.

The fire was in full blaze crackling and popping, and the sun was down. The reflection of the fire on their eager faces, awaiting the details of the plan, gave them a demonic appearance. ""Father please tell us now!!!"" So the fifth, stood in front of his children, looking like the conductor of a quartet, and told the plan.

""Ultimately for gold to go up, we have to devalue the $US, and get it off that global reserve status. The first step that TSMM is accomplishing is to change the PERCEPTION that stocks are ""as good as gold"". He is doing a fine job at that but it takes time, and we need this time for EI�'s part of the plan to completely unfold. We have to wait for the Euro to become a real physical currency, one that jingles, rather than just digital data. This will start to psychologically unite the Europeans. Then Russia joins the EU. The EU should be quite self sufficient, in time just trading amongst themselves and ME. You see, we will be just fine driving Mercedes instead of Cadillacs. We make a trade deal with EU, oil and ng at bargain prices for euros or gold, and good prices for goods and services that we need. We open the taps to Europe and close the valves to the US. Since the US only produces about 40% of their consumption, their industry will shrink by 60%. Sixty % less industry equals 60% less jobs. There will be massive unemployment, power outages, and debt default. Their credit bubble will implode, as well as derivative defaults. Their banking system will be destroyed. As they try to recover in time, our oil will be extremely expensive for them, since their money is worthless and we demand payment in gold or Euros. The US imports go up do to no productivity there, at the same time Europe is self sufficient.US industrial base will be devastated, due to no electricity, no oil, no ng, therefore no growth, no exports. The US economy will come to a screeching halt. All of the $US will come home to live on Greenspan�'s desk. That will be when, he will wish he had an Aladin�'s magic lamp to call upon the ""genie greenie"".

GOLD WILL RULE, and guess who owns the gold? ...M.E.

May your cups overflow,
I'm trying for my first,

SOTG




Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(04/02/2001; 06:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51240)
Randy, and ALL
Randy-I have always considered my word to be golden. Yet I see that I have not lived up to it by pursuing a dialogue with a certain individual. For that failing I apologize. I also wish you to remove my posting privilege from the forum, as I went back on my word. I will be content to participate as a lurker. You will find my armor and lance at the castle gate. Thanks again for your efforts towards maintaining this forum.

ALL-I value your wisdom. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me.
R Powell
(04/02/2001; 07:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51241)
SL+TT

In the construction industry there is a saying, "The only guy who never makes a mistake is the one standing in the unemployment line."
I've never seen anyone let go (fired) for doing something wrong. We fire people for not showing up and for not producing (working). I also believe IMHO that learning is achieved by doing. Doing for oneself involves errors which beget learning.
Knowledge is that which is left when what we have learned has been forgotten. (IBD)
Rich
R Powell
(04/02/2001; 08:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51242)
First and last Mondays of the month

A poster named Moutaingold at the neighboring G-E castle once said that he has found analyst Larry Williams theory of first and last Mondays being positive gains days on the stock exchanges to be correct. Both Mondays were up days last month. Moutaingold had checked this over a long period of time and stated that the corrolation was strong enough so that he trades accordingly.
He likes to short term trade the QQQ. We'll see if the theory holds true again today.??
I'm wondering if it will still hold true in a downtrending market as it apparently did during the past years' time that Moutaingold backchecked. Time will tell.
Rich
JMB
(04/02/2001; 08:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51243)
#51241
Excellent, imo.
SEER
(04/02/2001; 08:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51244)
Price guess and corrected Fifth Horseman entry

++++++259.40++++++

******The New Fifth Horseman******

The real Fifth Horseman will spur Demand to the level of Panic Buying! Now, think about whatever has brought you to buy and buy and then buy more! That only happens when the bargains are so great that you will buy without thinking, you will buy without hesitation, you will buy even if you don't need the item offered! If they offered you a painting by Rembrandt for $50, you would go into panic buy mode! If they offered you the original copy of the U. S. Declaration of Independence for $50 you wouldn't bat an eye nor wait a second! You would just buy on the spot, allowing that any possible fakery could be checked out after the purchase!

It is the same way with gold! The Fifth Horseman will ride in as the Declining Paper Price, a price so low that Demand runs rampant, a price so low that the ugliest Bear in the market will place his order to Buy! It will be a price so low that no hedge fund can resist the temptation to Buy, and Buy Big! Even the mines will buy, and buy, and buy, to the limit of their treasury!

Remember when silver went to $50 an ounce? People were selling their rings, their silverware, and their trophies! People were ready to melt down their antiques, their heirlooms, their amulets, their inlaid teeth and their silver chalices! It was a riot of selling!

With gold it will be the complete reverse, a buying panic! No one will be able to place his order soon enough! Every player will be on the telephone, seeking to be first in line at the order desk! People with high contacts will be seeking to use their influence to get to the head of the line. They will pay richly just to be put on the buyers' list! There will be threats and promises, all with the same purpose! In a buying panic it is every man for himself, devil take the hindmost, reach for the sky and buy, buy, buy!

Behold the Fifth Horseman, the Declining Paper Price! He rides with money bag in hand, holding it close to his vest, as he seeks the Golden Fleece, when the price is right!
Max Rabbitz
(04/02/2001; 08:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51245)
***** Fifth Horseman*******
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmAccording to the table on page one of the March News & Views, there was an estimated negative 14 metric tons of Forward Sales/Gold Leasing/Option Hedging in 2000. Now higher lease rates imply a shortage of physical gold. I expect there to be growing pressure to force miners into forward selling. In addition to the attempted takeover of Goldfields in South Africa by AngloGold (Rothschilds) there is also TVX Gold which it is now feared is about to fall into the hands of their bullion banker creditors. Should these events occur a new flood of forward sold gold is likely to depress gold markets for perhaps another year.
By then other mines would be ready for capitulation. I think this is their plan. Few if any mines will survive. Of course this forward sold gold is still in the ground and requires lending from above ground stocks to satisfy real market demand. This requires confidence that the financial and economic system will survive and the gold will eventually be mined. It is confidence alone that holds this system up. A confidence game, as Sir Powell posted yesterday.

The Fifth Horseman that will destroy this confidence game is the implosion of the Great U.S. Credit Bubble. It is of historic proportions and continuing to expand. The following 5 points are from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin last Friday (see above link).

1) The average credit card debt per household now amounts to some $8,000. Altogether, consumer debt is at a record high, totaling $1.52 trillion.
2) It appears the first quarter experienced one of the strongest periods of debt issuance in history, with a staggering $223 billion of new debt coming to market in the U.S.
3) March saw $11.5 billion of home equity loan securitizations compared to about $2 billion during February. After three months, we are on record pace with $84 billion of asset-backs issued. This is compared to $290 billion issued for all of year-2000.
4) Broad money supply (M3) expanded by $10 billion last week, continuing the historic monetary expansion that has seen broad money expand at a 14% rate over the past three months.
5) "Corporate credit quality fell for the 12th straight quarter, the longest losing streak in a decade, because the U.S. economy is slowing, corporate profits are eroding and companies are taking on too much debt, Moody's Investors Service said this week. Not since 1988 through 1993, which encompassed the last recession and included 19 consecutive down quarters, has corporate credit quality headed south for so long."

The Fifth Horseman will ride as earnings of U.S. companies decline from overcapacity, higher energy costs, increasing import competition, and stock option and accounting irregularities catching up. When future earnings are perceived to be insufficient to service debts, defaults will appear imminent and confidence will evaporate. Interest rates will rise to cover the risk. Simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets will leave no where to run.....but gold. When stock markets and commodity exchanges take a Holiday or take measures to deter "speculators" (see Palladium) even surviving miners may be tied up. Of course MK's phone and Internet connections will also be a bit tied up.

VanRip
(04/02/2001; 09:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51246)
Price Guess
++++++260.20++++++

The trend is your friend. NOT!! Still down. Strong-dollar bears still in control. Could bounce a little by Friday.
ET
(04/02/2001; 09:36:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51247)
Currencies & Money
http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=629&month=30&title=Is+Digital+Currency+Viable%3F&id=31
Is Digital Currency Viable?

by Timothy Terrell

[March 15, 2001]

Distinguishing innovation from chicanery is not always
easy, particularly when a market is developing much
faster than the average consumer will gather information
about it. The market for digital currencies is one of those
markets. Publicized failures of new gold-based currencies
make it more difficult for others who have viable plans for
new systems of exchange. It is appropriate, therefore, to
first examine the rationale behind money before we
invest heavily in plans to create new currencies.

Money is made valuable not so much because of its
substance as because of its acceptability. If I accept a
dollar in exchange for my goods or services, it is because I believe I can
turn around and give that dollar to any merchant for other goods and
services. We all recognize this, implicitly. But the acceptability of dollars did
not appear overnight. And no one wants to be the fool who takes a dollar in
a society where dollars are not yet used as money. So if no one would
accept a dollar without the knowledge that there are already many
merchants who want dollars, why would the first dollar be accepted by
anyone?

One of the twentieth century's greatest economists, Ludwig von Mises,
developed the theory of money regression to explain this conundrum. A
person accepts dollars today, Mises explained, because they were accepted
by other people yesterday. Those people accepted dollars yesterday because
they were accepted the day before. But the regression is not pushed back
infinitely. There is an ultimate explanation for the value of dollars.

The explanation rests in the original nonmonetary use of the good that has
become our money. Gold, for example, was used for ornamentation or
utensils before it became widely used as a medium of exchange. Its wide
use meant that people could be reasonably assured that they could easily
find a buyer, and the buyer could easily discern the quality of the goods. As
barter transactions involving gold became more common, a separate but
important value became attached to gold as a medium of exchange. Even if
those who had no desire for the ornamentation or industrial properties of
gold would accept it in exchange because it could easily be stored and used
later to buy something they wanted. As Mises wrote,

If we trace the purchasing power of money back step by step, we
finally arrive at the point at which the service of the good
concerned as a medium of exchange begins. At this point
yesterday's exchange value is exclusively determined by the
nonmonetary�industrial�demand which is displayed only by those
who want to use this good for other employments than that of a
medium of exchange.[1]

One of the consequences of the regression theorem is that money
must arise from a commodity already in general use. If there is no
nonmonetary use for the good, it will not develop the widespread demand
that must precede its use as a medium of exchange. As Mises's student
Murray Rothbard wrote, money "cannot be created out of thin air by any
sudden �social compact� or edict of government."[2] But once a good
develops a monetary nature, it is there to stay. The nonmonetary uses are
no longer necessary to maintain the good's monetary value, because there
is already a set of prices based on that good.

Advocates of a return to gold-based money would probably agree with much
of what Mises, Rothbard, and others in the Austrian School of economics
have to say. Yet the regression theorem's significance is often forgotten in
the rush to go out and start new currencies that eschew the government's
inflation-prone dollars. F.A. Hayek, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who
would have agreed with Mises on many points, nevertheless failed to grasp
the importance of the historical origin of money. Hayek's "denationalization
of money" scheme would dismantle legal tender laws and allow anyone who
wished to issue his own currency, backed by anything (or nothing).
Competition in money, Hayek believed, would result in the market's choice
of sound (perhaps gold-backed) currencies. Dollars and other fiat money
would fall by the wayside.

The problem with this plan is not that it allows competition with
government-provided money. Hayek and others should certainly have the
freedom to issue currency of any kind. The problem is, as Rothbard pointed
out, that Hayek's new currency tickets are divorced from the necessary
history of nonmonetary uses and will therefore not be accepted. "New
names on tickets," Rothbard wrote, "cannot hope to compete with dollars or
pounds which originated as units of weight of gold or silver and have now
been used for centuries on the market as the currency unit, the medium of
exchange, and the instrument of monetary calculation and
reckoning."[3] Even a bad government currency will have an advantage
against an unfamiliar 100 percent-reserve ticket. Why else would German
citizens continue using the mark in 1923 during rampant hyperinflation
instead of developing alternative currencies?

Some digital currency proponents are advocating variations on Hayek's plan.
If the digital currency plan requires people to trade and quote prices in
terms of something other than the widely used dollar, yen, mark, euro, or
other established currency, Mises's regression theorem would imply that the
plan is doomed. Well before e-money became possible, Rothbard addressed
this problem:

Even the variant on Hayek whereby private citizens or firms issue
gold coins denominated in grams or ounces would not work, and
this is true even though the dollar and other fiat currencies
originated centuries ago as names of units of weight of gold or
silver. Americans have been used to using and reckoning in
"dollars" for two centuries, and they will cling to the dollar for the
foreseeable future. They will simply not shift away from the dollar
to the gold ounce or gram as a currency unit.[4]

What will work is a plan that simply facilitates the exchange of
already-recognized currencies. This would include, for example, an Internet
bank that provides customers an option of denominating their accounts in a
variety of currencies or assets and then guarantees an instantaneous
exchange into one of these currencies at any time when an Internet (or
non-Internet, for that matter) transaction is desired. Debit- and credit-card
based systems have provided international travelers with worldwide
purchasing power for decades. Now Web-based firms are poised to provide
that service, with increased security, for the ballooning world of Internet
commerce. Mises's regression theorem sets a critical limit on how that
service can be provided.

Ultimately, a workable denationalization of money would link the dollar to
some market commodity. The supply of dollars need not be controlled by the
government or printed by the U.S. Mint. It would be enough to define the
dollar at, say, 1/20 an ounce of gold, and let the market handle the printing
and issuance of dollars. As was once the case in the United States, banks
could print bank notes denominated in dollars and backed by the requisite
amount of gold. Until that day, Mises, Rothbard, and others would suggest
that nationally controlled currencies are our only viable option.

_______________

Timothy Terrell, a Mises Institute adjunct scholar, is assistant professor of
economics at Wofford College. He can be contacted at
terrelltd@wofford.edu. This article originally ran on Goldeconomy.com
Max Rabbitz
(04/02/2001; 09:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51248)
Price Guess
++++++257.10++++++

The Rothschilds don't want to pay too much for Gold Fields.
FredBear
(04/02/2001; 10:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51249)
EMail I Just Received From GATA
Le Metropole Members,

RUSSIA-GOLD-GATA

Russian producers may join Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

MOSCOW. April 2 (Interfax) - The Russian Union
of Gold Producers is considering joining the Gold
Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), an organization set
up in the United States in 1999 to fight the manipulation
of world gold prices.
Union chairman Valery Braiko told Interfax that
"if union members understand that the committee can raise
the price of gold on the world market, the union will
join it."
GATA's website states that the committee was set
up "to advocate and undertake litigation against
illegal collusion to control the price and supply of
certain financial securities, particularly securities
involving gold." The committee aims to bring the gold
price up to $600 per troy ounce from the current
average of about $260.

[RU EUROPE ASIA EEU EMRG GOL US]
FredBear
(04/02/2001; 10:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51250)
R Powell (04/02/01; 08:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51242)
Trading MondaysSir RPowell, I have read of a LWilliams books. In his last one he uses the days of week as one of his primary filters.

I have also done my own study of day-of-week on the S&P and TBond futures markets. Mondays are very good buy days for a day trade. The percentages get worse as the week goes on. I did my studies going back 11 years.

But the best percentages are only a little over 50%.

The end of the month/begiining of the following month has also shown to be a positive long trade in both these markets. But again, it's not enough as some months are better than others.

In LW's last book, which I am now looking at, the Open-to-Close Change in Price By Day looks like this:

Gold BritishPound TBonds S&P500
Monday 53% +8$ 54% +10$ 55% +53$ 50% +45$
Tuesday 52 -3 58 -12 47 -35 55 +56
Wed 53 +4 55 +18 52 +4 51 -27
Thurs 52 +1 55 +11 50 +8 50 -37
Friday 53 -9 56 +13 51 -14 57 +109

The dollar amounts are all BEFORE slippage and commisions. And he does not give the dates of these stats.

Futures trading can be hazardous to your health.

The Day-of-Week of End-of-Month or any other type of pattern should only be used with other qualifiers.

Good luck.
CoBra(too)
(04/02/2001; 11:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51251)
@ Fredbear
... Seeing Bill's e-mail I tended to think that GATA
may be denounced as traitors of state, while the Clintonistas get away scot-free. Hope not, as it would mean the ultimate degradation and twisting of any truth.

Yes, I'm truly disgusted with this blatant game of manipulating markets, currencies and in particular gold and I've given up putting any "value" to government statistics -
as I'm getting increasingly cynical about reality vs. virtuality. FOA seems to be proven more right with every new day and in particular the paper POG is now truly diverting from reality.

The scary and eerie silence of the Bush Admin after two months in office is deafening - paralyzed in view of the venomuos snake, or looking into the abyss of the totally overblown debt bubble, wich can't ever be averted, without retrenchment and the bearing the consequences of a long lasting recessionary depression? - So the ultimate wisdom of going along with the "true lies" sown by others will eventually sink this admin far deeper than its real responsibilities. It's now or never, Mr. Bush!

- Do you hear the spanner screaming and screeching the works to halt? - or is just golden wheels grinding to pulverization of gold? - no way, 't may be fiat paper to be recycled at the mill.

... ever - cb2

IronHead
(04/02/2001; 11:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51252)
justamereBear - Japan's Deflation
Thank you for the comments Sir justamereBear. Forum etiquette is not my strong suit, such that I sometimes forget to add "@all" Also I feel (perhaps erroneously?) this is an open station with anyone welcome to throw their two bits in, at any time.

Yes indeed, you were correct in the assumption, that the past three months begat more "serious" interest in my venture proposals. Coinciding with the last downturn of yen to dollar. Not so much a seachange, as Japan has always been the exporter of fastest resort, but a Tsunami is building behind the former current.

Myself living in an area that is undergoing a gradually increasing recesssion/depression (tough to differentiate, when virtually all farms are "for sale") it appears as if the deflationary spiral is hitting our local economy fast. This is what Japan as a country appears deep into now, with real estate leading the tide out, starting years ago. Then comes the contraction in spending, despite the money wheel running overtime - where we are now?

The relay of funds back to the motherland can be delayed a bit, if the motor of export can be run at redline. But, as you stated - how long can that game be played if everyone devalues in a race to the bottom? Maybe it's like the stock market - those who sell first, escape the carnage. (Till there is no more bread and circus for anyone)

What really pulled my string, was how FAST this changeover occured, with my wondering how FAST the changeover will take place here on the good ship lollypop. Can our printing press sustain all world economies adinfinitum?

Maybe the Japanese and other Asian countries will find their populace running to gold, a bit ahead of our stock market escapees. Perhaps with China opening up its citizen's ability to buy gold, the Asians are slightly ahead of the curve. Many centuries of gold understanding in their history. Darn - this would have been a great new fifth horseman.

Anyone else have some thoughts on this?

Salutation,
IronHead
Tree in the Forest
(04/02/2001; 12:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51253)
Comex gold
800,000 oz of gold calling for delivery in the April contract with another 8000 contracts still open. Comex gold stocks around 1.3 M oz down about 500,000 oz from Feb contract.
beesting
(04/02/2001; 12:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51254)
Some More Thoughts on the Washington Agreement.
Thanks to Sirs, LeSin & Orca for the Inspiration of this post.
First, lets give a loose definition of Greshams Law: Good money always forces out bad, or not so good, money.(If the people of the world had a choice, Gold would be the money of choice, believe it!)

So, we are right now in a time period where the Euro is attempting to become the currency of choice for all Europeans, and maybe others. Hence a stated 15% Gold backing to try to condition this and the next generation of Euro users that the currency(Euro) is, or soon will be, more sound (valuable) than any other European currency.

Now what if The Washington Agreement was also a way to destroy the Gold holdings in a slow controlled way of any country that in the future may be a threat to the Euro. By threat I mean stronger currency(more valuable) of choice for people in Europe.

If the Euro collapses in value at some point( Like the Turkish lira) wouldn't people who have a collapsing currency rush to put their assets into Gold,,, or a more stable currency?

Hence we have the on going Swiss Gold sales and Bank of England Gold sales. I submit the real reason for the BOE Gold sale is to undermine the value of the Pound, with the intent of joining the European Union at some future point in time.(BIG Financial Players are not restricted on where they choose to live)
To reinforce this thought lets say a major event occured in the world today that caused Europeans to totally lose confidence in the Euro, what would be the percieved most valuable currency's of choice left in Europe? Answer, why the Swiss Franc as it always has been in times of trouble & the Pound.(IMHO one reason they were more valuable was the amount of Gold on hand, the same as the U.S. dollar, right now.)

So if the Gold holdings in Britain and Switzerland and other countrys are deminished to the point where those country's have NO WAY to produce a more sound currency than the Euro all Europeans will be forced to accept the Euro no matter what unknown events in history may be waiting for us.

Now lets say "The Fifth Horseman" is the total collapse in the confidence of the Euro,(causing a flight from the Euro and lowering it's percieved value) we reading these Gold forum pages would buy more Gold but the rest of the world would rush to put their assets into Another form of "Paper" that seemed more valuable, because of 50 + years of financial brainwashing.

So The Washington Agreement may in reality be a very sly way of adding an additional 400 tonnes of Gold yearly to annual demand and at the same time a way to undermine the potential value of any country's "Future" attempt at printing a more valuable currency than the Euro. I might add at the same time totally destroying finacial "Sovereignty" for all those countries who vote to use the Euro in the future.

Thanks for Reading....beesting.
Christian
(04/02/2001; 12:19:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51255)
Bush Administration working for Bush Sr.
Bush made $5trillion for the 2000-to the present 2001 time period on his investments in ther hedge funds. We the people are getting screwed by Bush Senior and his pal Mark Reich. Bush Senior is working for the British Crown and has a joint account with them. Greenspan is now building the real estate bubble in order for the Bush team to cash out on that sometime in 2002. Freddie + Fannie Mac (GSE)? are the new treasury notes. Bush team is building a short position in that. Can someone tell me how that is done? Short the Freddie+Fannie stock?
Rockgrabber
(04/02/2001; 12:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51256)
Comex Gold?
Has anyone ever taken delivery of a comex GOLD contract? As well I want to open a new furures account one that will never trade gold again (AHHAHA). Does anyone have a futures Account with service that they are actually happy with? Any recomendations will be helpfull. I need to leverage some Euros, and Crude. Thank You.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/2001; 12:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51257)
Only FOUR hours remain to earn gold and silver from Centennial Precious Metals!
USAGOLD (03/29/01; 11:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51003)

The New Fifth Horseman: A CALL TO CONTEST. . . .A CALL TO CONTEST
Knights and Ladies of this Table -- one and all. . . . . .

A posting contest of erudition, fact and fancy is in order. One demanding of your greatest posting skills. . . .

We have come a long way on this journey of knowledge and understanding and these contests have contributed mightily toward this end. But no contest has carried the long lasting benefits and continuous interest like the Fifth Horseman competition (April, 1999) which I believe produced some of the best posts ever published at this site. In that competition, we found Rising Oil camped with the other four over that distant hill beyond these castle walls. We knew that hoary visage would wreak havoc. Now, as you know, this Fifth Horseman has torched many a village along the way (Rising from $10 to $30) and driven prices higher everywhere we look. . .and his deadly work is not done yet.

This Horseman, Rising Oil, remains conjoined with Three others, who,though resting quietly near the fire still theaten nevertheless, poised and ready to wreak havoc at the slightest provocation:

The Asian Contagion (now gone international, i.e. Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, et al)

Euro Introduction (We'll add the Strike Force to the currency)

The Stock Market Meltdown (In progress. . .)

But what is this . . .

In a cloud of dust One of the Five now gallops away n'er to be seen again. . . .Y2K -- having done its deadly damage and contributed mightily to the gold demand -- has vanished in the night.

And brings us to what this contest is all about. . . .


We must now once again name a Fifth to replace the One who has slinked away. Undoubtedly there are many candidates to fill this evil role. . . .

Remember: The Horsemen are not what drives Price but what will drive Demand for Gold in the future. . . .Gold, the Protector, the Vessel of our Wealth, the one addition to our portfolios that will be there should any of these Horseman gain the Day. . . . ..........So keep gold Demand in mind when you write your contest entry.

So that is the Contest to be weighed over the course of the next Five days. Who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the treat he represents?

The Castle Treasury has authorized issuance of one German 20 Mark gold coin to the winner and one U.S. Silver Eagle each to two runners-up. All entries must be made by Monday, April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.)

All Contest posts must be 30 words or more. . .

All Contest posts must be marked as follows:

****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)

--------------

Along with the Fifth Horseman competition, we will have a price guessing contest on the price of gold on the close for the June contract on Friday April, 6th. The gold will be awarded to the individual who comes closest to that closing price. The Castle Treasury has authorized a one-tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic as the prize. All entries must be made by Monday April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.). The post must also indicate in 30 words or Less why you think it will be so. Keep in mind, the contest is on the June contract, not April.

All contest entries must be marked with

+++++ (Price Guess) +++++ (Surrounded by plus signs)

----------------

Also. . .All first time posters will be awarded one U.S. Silver Eagle for breaking the ice. The post however must be a Fifth Horseman entry. Price Guess posts will not count but you may enter that contest also. To win the prize, you must e-mail jill@usagold.com that this is your first post. We will check each claim, so don't try to get one by us.

----------------

We would like to greatly encourage our international lurkers and posters to participate -- and we know there are a great many. We now have an international look and we would like to extend our hand across the waters and welcome all. We do not expect perfect English. . . .only well-honed logic.

So good luck, my friends.

And. . . . .

Let the contest continue.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/2001; 12:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51258)
An aid to international clients of Centennial Precious Metals
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlAustralia, Canada, and Europe...show your support for USAGOLD by making your next precious metals purchase from Centennial! It is as easy as calling for pizza!!
CoBra(too)
(04/02/2001; 12:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51259)
@ Christian
Sorry Sir, I'm getting kind'a weary about unsubstantiated attacks; Either substantiate your ridiculous accusations or spare me this kind of drivel.

Sorry for being harsh - cb2

PS: and don't even care if you pick it up on Skolnick's or any other web site.
Journeyman
(04/02/2001; 13:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51260)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
http://www.journeyman.1hwy.com/J-E-AU_GROWTH.html
It was just sun-up when the familiar-looking stranger rode into
camp. He rode in slowly from the east, and to those grizzled
veterans wondering who dared their camp at such an un-godly hour,
it seemed to them he outshown the firey orb rising behind him.
Was that shining armor he was wearing? Or was it something else?

He rode easily in the saddle, apparently untroubled by the
mixture of morning fog and dense black smoke swirling madly about
him. It almost seemed that unnatural and unholy mixture was
trying to obscure the stranger's inner brightness.

"He looks familiar - - - but there have been so many applying
these last few days . . .

"Lucifer! Light Bringer!" said Rising Oil in awe!

Euro turned his back and hissed into the dawn.

"Why are you here?" rumbled Market Meltdown, in open hostility
and repressed fear.

"The reason I always come. I bring knowledge and enlightenment.
It is my fate."

"The Greeks called you Prometheus . . .

"They call me many things. But whatever they name me, they
either fear me or respect me. They ignore me at their peril."

. . . but the Christians call you 'Devil.'"

"Where my light shines, transformation and change follow. It
isn't always pretty. That's why _you_ know me," he said,
glancing meaningfully around the circle. Those who fear change
fear me. The established churchs, those Whores of Babylon, are
no exception. But their True Holy One told them to know my
lance: 'Know The Truth and The Truth shall set you free,' he
taught them."

"Fat lot of good it's doing. POO there tripled his efforts from
$10 per barrel barely a year ago," rumbled MM. "We've even
gotten War back into the game and he's been ranging far and wide.
You know of his exploits of late: Iraq, Algeria, Rowanda, Kosovo,
Serbia, Chechnya. Even now he stalks Macedonia and prepares for
sport in Taiwan, Palestine, and other places known only to a few.
The Contagion, fresh from victories in South America and via a
flight from Tokyo, is once again hectoring Asia. Even weak old
Famine, this time in partnership with old and retired Plague, are
stealing into Europe with foot-in-mouth . . . "

"Yea. Thanks a lot," said Euro derisively. "Get it straight
will you guys. You're not supposed to be attacking me -- the
problem is Strong Dollar. I'm one of the good guys."

Light-Bringer gave Euro a side-long glance. "You just _think_
you're one of the good guys," he said. "Underneath, you're empty
and hollow, just like the rest of your clan. I suppose you may
have your uses for now, but you'll die young along with all your
kin."

Euro gave Lucifer a defiant look, but everyone in the company,
including Euro himself, could now see The Truth in what Lucifer
had said. They all avoided the eye of their doomed and temporary
companion.

"There's Sir Reginald's Law Suit and GATA. There's even this up-
start Energy something-or-other free-lancing his dark and
entropic cape over the American country-side," Contagion
continued the defeatist theme, "Market Meltdown has been
ridiculously successful. The DOW dipped into bear market range,
the S&P the same. NASDAQ has lost more than 60% of it's imagined
value and just finished it's worst quarter in history - - - and
_still_ gold languishes below it's production costs."

"The Truth doesn't come to large numbers suddenly; it only seems
that way in the end. It comes slowly, one person at a time, like
the sun in the morning gradually, almost imperceptibly, stealing
silently into your bed-chamber, finally caressing your eye-lids
and awaking you from your dark and frightening dreams. When
enough waken, only then is the change upon us."

"True enough, but it seems that _nothing_ is happening,"
complained POO.

"Truely it does seem this way. They've been using their new
weapon, Derivative, to suppress the early warnings that normally
arrive as rising prices, but make no mistake the waves are
building and the results will be the worse because of it. Forced
by Derivative to behave as tsunamis - - - which unlike normal
waves don't gain height or power till they near the shore - - -
they are coming together from all points of the compass. You
yourself have identified many of them -- the Energy dude with the
dark cape just crashed ashore. He's just getting started. And
there are many more like him right on his heels. Silver may
crash down on Comex before the blackouts of summer place their
indelible marks in the tome of 2001. Perhaps Copper will drench
the markets like the rains of April.

"Inflation walks openly among us, flaunting his excesses. Bus
rides in Pittsburgh just jumped 17%, baseball tickets 13%, and of
course, the 40% electric-rate increases in California and
doubling of natural gas prices. But the feckless Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Keystone cops that they are, recite incantations,
chanting that inflation is just the ghost of a clown, while all
the while the FED performs endless acts of repo legerdemain,
putting more and more "Strong" dollars into circulation.

"But The Truth is penetrating into the deeper levels. There are a
reported 30 million Americans now enlightened with enough truth
to stop participating in the unlawful IRS income tax scam. You
don't hear this often, but even IRS commissioners and presidents
sometimes let the figures slip. This wave is beginning to be
visible just off shore: See next weekend's USA TODAY. You'll see
The Truth in action, a full-page add challenging the lie of the
Sixteenth Amendment and the Federal Reserve Act. How good will
the "Full Faith and Credit" be when _this_ wave hits the beach?
What will the foreign mercenaries holding Big Float do?

These and many more Small Truths slash and burn, but it is The
Ultimate Truth, The Truth that gold is still by far the best
choice, not only for storage of wealth, but also for
transactional use, just as history has proven time and time
again, that will truly free the price of gold from it's Strong-
Dollar shackles.

"In other currencies however, The Ultimate Truth has already
established a solid beach-head. Ask the Indonesians, the
Koreans, the Brazilians, the Turks - - - even the Australians - -
- about the price of gold.

"Most importantly however, I have a fifth column with tendrils
that reach around the world and into half of all American homes.
The potential of this Fifth Column is little understood as of
yet. It's potential to deliver The Ultimate Truth is yet masked.
E-gold in many forms has begun to be deployed through this Fifth
Column, which will lead, as night follows day, to international
pricing directly in gold units.

"The early users will, for simplicity, get in the habit of
speaking clearly. They will talk not of selling gold for dollars
or yen or marks or euro, but of buying dollars, yen, marks and
euro with gold. They will begin, as of old, to write gold
clauses into their contracts. Gold will thus begin to reclaim
it's True position as the Ultimate Denominator of Transactions,
not thru potentially questionable intermediaries like "dollars",
but directly as grams and ounces of gold.

"At first transactional E-gold will only be used by a trickle, an
elite few. But as Dollar, Euro, Lira, Sucre and their ilk - - -
ah, sorry Euro - - - reveal their true and hollow colors, more
and more people will catch on. The demand for transactional gold
will grow from a trickle to a stream, the stream to a river, the
river to a flood, the flood to a torrent, once again washing away
the fiat detritus from the banks of history. Some economic
historians will undoubtedly refer to this episode as the Great
Money Laundering.

"Pie-in-the-sky", sneered Euro

"You're hoping", responded Lucifer. "Because that would spell the
end of the brief domination by you and your clan." And looking
at Contagion, and Meltdown, "And you fellows would be forced into
early retirement too. It will also lessen War's work-load. But
right now, you have your uses whether we like it or not." And as
an after-thought, "Nothing for you to worry about, Oily One. To
be as good as gold is all you wanted in the first place."

"That's true," said Rising Oil. And then hesitantly, "But I agree
with Euro, pie-in-the-sky."

"Don't be so sure. One of my tacticians has done the
calculations. You can find a "quick & dirty" thumb-nail of them
at the link in the header. At the present rate of expansion, by
the year 2003 the volume of E-GOLD transactions will be the
equivalent of a small country the size of Canada. That's the
stream if not the river - - - and in _just_ two years. And E-
GOLD is only one of the Fully Enlightened. Just for example,
recently Sir James "The Golden" Turk has ventured into the e-gold
business as well. You can see for yourself at:

http://www.goldmoney.com/public/about_goldmoney/management.html

"A few from the dark-side have already begun to feel the cold
sweat of fear trickle down their craven spines: For the first
time just two days ago they raided "Gold-Age," an outpost of E-
GOLD, but doing only transient harm.

"As the Economic Sage Mises laid down many ages ago in the Sacred
Book of Action, while there is no perfect medium of exchange,
there has yet to be a better one than gold. The fiat economic
circumstances of today - - - and the explosive growth of e-gold
- - - are the ultimate proof that Sir Ludwig saw truly and for
all time.

"Thus by the will and DEMAND of the people, enlightened by The
Truth, will the price of gold be set free to seek it's true
level, which will include it's rediscovered use as a
transactional medium. As a result of the spread of The Ultimate
Truth, it's ultimate value will surprise and amaze it's advocates
and humble it's enemies. Just as the "new economy" wasn't new
and the phrase passed quickly into the disuse of embarrassment,
so too the "new fiat experiment" will come to a bad and
ignominious end. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. And
soon." [*1]

An Historical note:

And thusly at the hand of the Fifth Column, the Fifth Horseman,
and the tip of the mighty lance Truth, and with the aid of those
four assembled at dawn and other temporary allies, it did indeed
come to pass just as Lucifer Light-Bringer said that it would.
And it came to pass with much less misery and upheaval than most
thought possible - - -

Regards,
Journeyman

*1. A note to my friends and allies at USAGOLD: Don't get left
in the backwaters - - - become an e-gold portal!!
24Wortel
(04/02/2001; 13:06:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51261)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
With lowered heads and eyes cast down
Upon their fallen brother
The four remaining horseman await
One more sign from Another:

"Y2K was but a ploy,
To divert away attention
From the real horseman #5
Whose name I will now mention."

And then the visage before them lay,
With a voice they'd never heard.
"I have come at last to join you-
For mine's the final word.

I am feared by many,
Known by few,
I make the shackled free.
Arrogance and power fade
When put in front of me.

The masses are told
To deny my name
And believe instead in fraud.
But those who do the telling,
Deny there is a God.

So stand with me
We can not fail.
I have history as my proof.
So we embark
As horsemen five-
You shall know me now as TRUTH.

You are facts, but facts alone
Cannot the lies defeat
For without TRUTH
Each horseman stands
Alone against deceit.

But next to me a fact is real
TRUTH will make it known
And no denial can make a change
Once the seed is sown."

So away they rode, the horsemen five
Much stronger than before
And as the TRUTH becomes well known
The demand for gold will soar.

24Wortel
(04/02/2001; 13:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51262)
Price Guess
+++++ (263.70) +++++

All in a dream, all in a dream- the loading had begun....
SEER
(04/02/2001; 13:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51263)
Price guess---(I forgot the 30 words or less reasons!)
++++++259.40++++++
All you guys can't be wrong! This is your average guess after I throw out the highest and lowest!
RossL
(04/02/2001; 13:30:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51264)
+++++ $254.90 +++++

Lease rates have settled into a new range. The paper gold traders will retain control this week as they roll over April contracts to the June expiration.
JMB
(04/02/2001; 13:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51265)
Ron Insana @ CNBC
Did I hear Ron say, "It might be time to look at gold for a safe haven."?

Naaaaah, no way! Couldn't have said that...did he?
Journeyman
(04/02/2001; 13:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51266)
+++++ $257.55 +++++

The price won't go anywhere - - - till it must. Not quite yet.

Regards,
Journeyman
JMB
(04/02/2001; 13:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51267)
+++++++++++++++++$285.00+++++++++++++++
Just in case I heard Mr. Insana correctly.
Genoo
(04/02/2001; 13:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51268)
******The New Fifth Horseman*****
The new fifth horseman is the coming resolution of the enormous current US debt load.

So far, the market is still largely in denial of the loss of the bull market and bull economy. It doesn't quite believe that it's really gone and is still hoping it will soon be back so that losses will not have to be faced and the party can go on. Market forces are still trying to rationalize what has happened as something that can be rapidly reversed.

For example the majority of analysts are bullish. Even top rated economists, one being the chief Merrill guru, recently wrote that the economic recovery has been delayed by Greenspan "fumbling" by having recently dropped short rates only 50 basis points compared to the expected 75 point decrease. I wonder when the Fed last dropped rates 150 points in 3 months? Perspective reveals the shallowness and even silliness of such an argument.

What has been delayed is the market's adjustment to reality. A large factor delaying the processing of the new reality is the denial of the unprecedented debt load across the board from personal to corporate. The amount of economic pain that will be associated with facing and dealing with that debt, being largely unknown, is perhaps as yet too scarey for the 'market' to face. Once faced, all major markets will correct to the appropriate level. The consequences of that correction will be felt by everyone and will include a new and appropriate value for the US dollar.

Given all of the uncertainty and the historic inverse relationship between the US dollar and the precious yellow, could there be a better time to prepare yourself for what is to come than by maximizing you holdings in the best financial insurance available, namely gold bullion.
Genoo
(04/02/2001; 13:57:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51269)
*****256.60*****
A test of the recent low for bullion seems in progress
CoBra(too)
(04/02/2001; 14:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51270)
Professor von Braun at his best ...
... A gold bird in the hand is worth two in the BUSH -
As the good professor is kind enough to post here as well, I will abstain from posting a link, though I'm happy he was lauding Bill Murphy, the Cafe and GATA directly and -snippet- CNBC is looking more like Monty Python, no disrespect to John Cleese intended. "What is regarded as expert advice by most expert business commentators, well I mean experts, experts on what? What else is Joe 'the parrot' Battapiglia going to say other than "this is a great buying opportunity?" ... an expertise followed by all in lieu of a new game in town, or let's sink together in lieu of "thinking" for your yourself - or call it momentum investing, or better building pyramids upside down ( see Mitchener's 'Mexico' - The drunken builders and brewers of Mescal/Mesquite). Neat - I'll opt for gold - physical and out of town shut in reserves - for my nerves -
... cb2 ... and you?




JMB
(04/02/2001; 14:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51271)
24WORTEL
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP BRAVO BRAVO more more ENCORE!

Way to go Sir.
SALMON
(04/02/2001; 14:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51272)
Franco-Nevada
Franco-Nevada exchanges the Ken Snyder mine for a 19.9% strategic interest in Normandy Mining Limited
Chris Powell
(04/02/2001; 14:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51273)
Russian gold producers express interest in GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/726Wall Street's imperialism is far worse
than Russia's these days.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com



auspec
(04/02/2001; 14:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51274)
CoBra{too}
Breaker, Breaker.....You are so right about what GATA has to sell,
Many will find that CNBC is NOT the Holy Grail,
But of more importance... I've lost your e-mail!
rtmauspec@hotmail.com
canamami
(04/02/2001; 14:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51275)
Reply to JMB - post 51265
Yes, Ron Insana said that. Is CNBC getting ready to ride the gold wave?
Journeyman
(04/02/2001; 14:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51276)
The next big setup - - - or just a mistake? @ALL

I had dinner with a few friends Saturday night. One works near
Quantico, Virginia, the largest Marine base in the country and
commutes back here on week-ends. He reported that the big guns at
Quantico were firing day and night ALL LAST WEEK. Further, he
told us, the long-time residents explained to him that when this
happens, there's about to be major military action somewhere in
the world. I questioned him carefully, and he indicated that this
was the consensus of the folks living in the area. He also
reported seeing alot of "white busses" traveling around the area,
which is apparently unusual.

Also, someone who knows a Navy Seal reported that his friend
suddenly disappeared without any explanation. This is a hallmark
of preparations for military action _somewhere_.

Where? I sure hope, if these early indicators are correct, it
isn't China over the spy-plane incident. Because all those
preparations were happening BEFORE the spy-plane incident, and if
it IS China, it implies that the plane incident is just a part of
a pre-ordained PLAN!

And, while it seems far-fetched, there _is_ the April Glaspie
scam that lured Hussein into Kuait, the Gulf of Tonkin fiction
that got U.S. into Viet Nam, etc. - - - AND that grandaddy of
them all, the FDR-instigated attack on Pearl Harbor, used to get
U.S. public support behind U.S. entry into WWII.

If not China then where?

Or is this all just normal military exercises and paranoia on my
part? Or too much PandaGold?

Regards,
Journeyman
Mr Gresham
(04/02/2001; 15:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51277)
24Wortel
Bravo, also! Sounds like you, too, have kept on searching for a "Heart of Gold". (Was Neil our "Buy" signal for the '70s? Wrong generation listening? -- they had the money; we had the music.)

TRUTH: the stranger at the table, face obscured in his hooded robe. Then: "You have known me heretofore as the Black Knight of investment despair. Know me henceforth as your King, Richar' Coeur d'Or."

Well done, Sir Knight. (Hey, Oro, sorry but... -- remember I said while I'm here, I'm gonna either (1) make money, (2) learn, or (3) have fun while I'm waiting for #1. Well -- "2 out of 3 ain't bad...")
Canuck Gold
(04/02/2001; 15:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51278)
+++++ $258.5 +++++
The price has eased down over the last few days but I expect it to run into resistance preventing it from falling below $255, followed by a little bounce.

CG
beesting
(04/02/2001; 15:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51279)
Making your Physical Gold Work for You.
http://www.goldmoney.com/public/getting_started/goldmoney.html
Adding to Sir journeymans fine post # 51260 ( The Fifth Horseman).
James Turks e-gold plan allows the storage of physical Gold (currently 400 ounces) to back your "Gold-Grams".
For every approx 81 people(Or Entities) that store 400 ounces of physical Gold that would = about one tonne of Gold, under the ownership of someone other than a Central Bank.
If eventually 810 people(Or Entities) stored their physical this way that would be about 10 tonnes.
8100 people worldwide would = about 100 tonnes!
Rhetorical Question:
How long would it take us die hard Gold Hearts to own enough physical to cause a shortage(And Higher POG) in known world supplies, using the above formula?
Thanks for Reading.....beesting.
auspec
(04/02/2001; 15:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51280)
SALMON
Franco-NevadaVery interesying, thanks SALMON. That leaves Franco with approx 20% of the Ken Snyder mine {via stock} and at least 20% of Normandy. Questions...... Did Franco already own shares in Normandy? What is Normandy's hedge position? Initially Franco was more of a royalty Co, but couldn't pass up operating the Ken Snyder Mine. Difficulties therein may have changed their perspective. On the other hand they wanted to merge with Goldfields. Wonder what their long term objective now is; royalty or mega miner? They are the good guys until proven otherwise, so hopefully they can control a sizeable amount of resources before this consolidation phase ends. Regardless of their direction/philosophy they will likely treat shareholders to great value and profits! Thanks Franco.
Christian
(04/02/2001; 15:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51281)
@CoBra(too) Bush Sr-Rubin
Bush Sr.+Rubin are in control of the cabel manipulation and theft game. The stock and commodity market is a game where money "flows through" these markets rather then being "in" it. They simply take investors money and place it into their account. The very fact that they --Bush Sr. + Rubin with the help of Mark Reich settle trillions of dollars of trade imbalances every year with gold is what makes the dollar's value stable. Making $5trillion in less then 2 years is not much good if the dollar does not hold value. Just watch how the dollar increases in value during the next few years as more and more people struggle to come up with mortgage payments with dollars that are no longer in circulation. Same thing happened in the 30's. A lot of people lost everything during that time. Next year the real estate bubble will burst and then comes the dollar value bubble. When the dollar goes interest rates will head for the moon. We the people are screwed and there is little anyone can do about it. Reich was instrumental in moving Russia's gold out of Russia and also moved Fort Knox gold out of USA. It is this gold the Hedge Funds are using to manipulate this market. Bush Sr. is by far the largest holder of 7 of the Largest Hedge Funds in the World...... Al Gore is doing what?? in Russia??????? Why is there 32 accounts at Goldman Sachs who control over 90% of Russian Real Estate.
Peter Asher
(04/02/2001; 15:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51282)
******The New Fifth Horseman******
The Galloping Generation Gap
The new threat to the system is that power generation capacity is tapping out. Almost every day we have seen further news of insufficiency both in present time and in the immediate future. The constantly increasing demand has suddenly collided with static capacity, higher fuel costs for generation and a hydro-electric drought throughout the West. The shortfall will stimulate massive investment to create new generation and distribution facilities and new automotive and generation technologies. This will create a boom in those industries along with a surge in demand for copper, silver and any other commodity that is part of the equation. This will require a mobilization, albeit on a smaller scale, akin to the "War Effort" of WWII.

After-market investing routes borrowed funds through equities into the hands of consumers. However, financing the above will inject working capital into the system. This results in the expansion of the infrastructure which, in turn, serves to produce and deliver. Only after that occurs does the money then flow into consumption, via the hands of those employed.

I propose that there are three basic forms of price inflation: stagflation, hyperinflation and cost- based inflation. Stagflation occurs when a confluence of high capital and production costs create an environment in which only the most solvent entities are left standing and able to command the higher price of survival. Hyperinflation is specifically a phenomena of massive currency buying power operating in an environment of low productive capability and scarce resources. In this presnt case we will have an economic mobilization injecting credit into activities that create production and full employment while not simultaneously creating more consumer good and services in the process. As this activity gathers momentum it will offset the disinflation thrust of the current seller's market in the existing economic pipeline. As a "cost-based" inflation, this will not be subject to the gyrations of monetary antics and therein lies a different environment regarding gold.

Over the past four years we have seen the greatest economic boom in history occur without a significant price inflation nor a concurrent demand market for gold. My conclusion on this, is that market competition generated by the Internet carved out a huge portion of the mercantile profit in the system, thereby offsetting the inflationary thrust of a �fat pocketbook economy'.Any �wealth transfer' boom is empirically destined to burnout and fall back and therefore �Knowledgeable' long term money has not (yet) been accumulating gold.

In a product based economic expansion however, the rising price levels are built on a solid foundation. That may stabilize when the event has run its course but it is then a larger economic structure capable of sustaining itself without a subsequent contraction. The "War Effort" was proof of that. War Bond capitalization built a massive productive infrastructure which was then in place for the "Postwar boom."What had been brought forth to produce tanks, guns , ships and aircraft converted to countless new products across the economic spectrum.

Consider where the price of gold would have been had it been available as an investment vehicle at that time. Then, consider also, that FDR confiscated gold prior to letting Pearl Harbor come about and create WWII to resurrect our economy. From there it is only one small step further to believe that the first event was put in place because the second one was already on the drawing board.

In conclusion then, it is absolutely essential that mobilization of power generation and new energy technologies take place. There will not b a doomsday scenario, The movers and shakers with their hundred million dollar equity portfolios are not going to let the wealth factor vaporize. This is why they fired the Democrats and rehired the Republicans; the system was being cannibalized.

If the phenomena apply as I have laid it out, a firm demand for gold should ensue. What happens next, with a 14000 (?) Ton short position, is something this Forum will enjoy contemplating.



canamami
(04/02/2001; 15:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51283)
+++++++++258.00++++++++++
It's a tough call, as I could see the June contract go to 266.00 over the China incident. However, the incident will be resolved, and the the POG will settle at $258.00 by week's end.
YGM
(04/02/2001; 15:51:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51284)
Just dropped by....
to say Hello!YGM is still a goldbug, although gone for some months! Better to work for worthless paper and buy the Gold than to waste a life and a fortune mining it.....Hang in there and onto those thoughts of a Gold price explosion as it will come. Hopefully w/o bloodshed of war. Maybe just bleeding gold shorts and Goldman Sachs shareholders. See you all down the road.....YGM.
GO GATA, GO GOLD AND "GO PHYSICAL"
Peter Asher
(04/02/2001; 15:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51285)
+++++$264.40+++++

Feels like something is blowing in the wind and there may be a lot of fear and concern to cause investors to end the week in protective mode.
Peter Asher
(04/02/2001; 15:57:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51286)
Journeyman msg#: 51276)
I see both of us are thinking about the FDR assisted attack on Pearl Harbor.

Just who's "infamy" was he really referring to do you suppose?
Simply Me
(04/02/2001; 16:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51287)
+++++ $256.80 +++++
The price of paper gold will not change much in the near future. The paper game is still unwinding. Paper gold players must dwindle down to the unpowerful, uninformed and unimportant few that can safely be allowed to kick and twist in the wind before the game can be allowed to end.

simply
justamereBear
(04/02/2001; 16:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51288)
IronHead 51252

IMHO fast will not be the word for it. Blindingly fast comes does not even cover it. Yet, I will also wager that as depressed as the area you seem to be in, most people are still of the opinion that this is a passing phase, and that things will get better. I still see those who have money as waiting for the right time to get back into the market. Mutual fund investors are still in it for the long term. Long term poverty I'd say. You, or perhaps better said, we at the forum are much more aware of, and sensitive to, the signals and symptoms that are appearing than almost any other group, I would think. Most of the problem I see here at the forum is the amazement that the populace cannot see what to us is self evident. The general populace will stumble to the same conclusion in their own good time.

A few thoughts re Japan. In 1989 the financial situation for the country was rock solid, particularly vis a vis most other countries. The Nikki finished the year at 39000 and change, say 40,000. In Mar 90, my wife and I looked at buying a 3LDK, sort of a 1 bedroom apartment condo. I am going to quote in Canadian dollars because that is where I'm from, but at the time the the Can$ was about 3/4 of the US buck, as opposed to today at 2/3 of a buck. Condo prices were in the $1.8 to 2.0 million range in that location. (Just outside Tokyo city limits. Across the Tama river which is the city limit.) Banks had loaned money as mortgages on almost all propery in Japan. **based on the assessed value** In most cases, over 80% of assessed value. A good deal of this increase in asset value, mortgage money, was invested in the stock market, which was going to go up forever. Some even borrowed personal money, or traded on margin. Sound Familiar?

My wife, in 1989, earned about $15,000 salary, and an annual bonus of $10,000. Total $25,000 Her brother who was a manager (sort of a seniority driven supervisor), and who was not especially bright, but was male with wife and kids, earned a salary of $20,000, and a bonus of $25,000. Total $45,000. Bonuses of this order were accepted and thought of as being a permanent part of the salary across Japan.

A year later the Nikki was at or near 14,500. House prices had fallen by 70%. No one in Japan got a bonus. The average salary had fallen by 50% or more. The banks who had a mortgage of say 80% of $2 million, or $1.6 million, were faced with a customer who could not meet the payments on his 50 or 100 year mortgage, because of his salary cuts. The resale value of the house now was 30% of 2 million or $600,000. (Providing the market was not flooded with repossed homes) The banks were underwater by about a million dollars per house. (or condo)Then of course the margin type loans were also to be considered. As well as some of the business loans were going sour. So much so that the cast in stone "job for life" got a jolt when companies started letting people go.

Everybody started papering over the cracks as fast as possible. The government, which had been sitting on a huge surplus, started spending wildly. Today it is indebted to the extent that it is among the worst per capita in the developed counties. Canada and the US are already borrowed up to the ying yang, and don't have that option. AG is printing IOU's like mad. It is the only option he has. As long as Joe Sixpack snoozes on, it works. If the slightest thing wakens Joe, Katie bar the door. A non existant quote from AG Thank god Joe is a heavy sleeper.

Personally, I do not see such terrible things till fall. Summer is bright, and light, and a time of growing and hope. When the bleak days, and long nights of fall begin to depress Joe, I want to have everything in place. But then I have been wrong before.

j'Bear

Simply Me
(04/02/2001; 16:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51289)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse has not failed! Nor has he disappeared! He has only changed his name and his appearance. Instead of armor, this Horseman wears veils. His power is in his insubstantial nature. He destroys his opponents by wasting their energy...making them tilt at
windmills like mad Don Qixotes.
He appeared in 1999 as the Y2k bug, threatening to destroy our computer-driven life support system. But since that name no longer inspires dread, he is busy morphing into a new persona. His new face has not yet set. He may choose to be War in the Middle East. Or, more promising, maybe he will take on the face of the Euro and threaten to destroy the US Dollars economic supremacy. But most likely, he will take the face of China...a triple threat if ever there was one! Industrial competition, military opposition, AND a natural appetite for gold in newly opened markets, just now making it's power known to the rest of the world!
But as I said, this is only one of the Fifth Horseman's illusory names and faces. Strip away his veils and illusions and you will see only FEAR. Fear is his true name. Fear for livelihoods. Fear for safety. Fear for the ability to provide food and shelter for our families.
Fear made thousands buy gold in 1999 in preparation for in Y2k meltdown. And along with his brother Horsemen, Fear will drive all of our economic preparations again, in the US and in every other part of the world. Fear is known everywhere; he wears different names and faces for different coutries and cultures, but there he is nonetheless. Fear drives gold demand, which in turn creates scarcity and higher prices. Fear is the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalyptic Reign of Gold.

Thanks for the opportunity to participate,
simply
justamereBear
(04/02/2001; 16:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51290)
*******266.00******

I don't recall what the deadline is, nor am I sure whether 266 is taken. If so, please add increments of .10 till you find an open spot.

On balance this is a crapshoot, and IMHO we are talking about a normal range, with a slight bias to the upside. Personally, I don't think the party will get started until later in the year. Maybe I am just telling myself that to avoid being uptight.

j'Bear

auspec
(04/02/2001; 16:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51291)
St. Pete #51282
Nice job, you have decorated the bullish gold case in splendor!
Belgian
(04/02/2001; 16:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51292)
Washy Tonnes do Agree...
Europ, wants a "STABLE" Euro ! That is their main message in the final run to 1/1/2002. The dollar is getting nervous and uncertain about its own faith. The dollar is not waiting for the world to decide if they are going to flirt with the Euro or stay in love with the dollar for ever.
So, Lady Dollar is dressing up and sister YEN, encourages the boys for the last tango.

Europ's dollar-reserves, can be exchanged (into strength) for some more cheap gold, to add to the already 15% backing.
So, what purpose does it serve to the dollar, in knocking the Euro down ? Europ doesn't need an absurd overvalued dollar in its reserves anymore and has enough ammunition to teach the dollar a gold-lesson, by crashing the paper gold circus and dynamite POG into orbit. Am I openly declaring a dollar war here already ?
justamereBear
(04/02/2001; 16:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51293)
J'Man 51276


That is one interesting post. Maybe as in eventful in the chinese way.

j'Bear
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/2001; 16:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51294)
Fed adds $8.9 billion to banking system reserves today
Two billion was in the form of 28-day repurchase agreements, the balance in overnight repos.

Banks had been trading federal funds 25 basis points over the FOMC target.

I will rejoin the currency vs. savings discussion tomorrow when posting traffic is lighter upon the imminent conclusion of MK's contest period...now 25 minutes away.
canamami
(04/02/2001; 17:03:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51295)
*****Fifth Horseman******
I don't have the time to write a long piece like I did in the last Fifth Horseman contest. However, a shorter piece will suffice in any event because my candidate is simple and straightforward - the Fifth Horseman will be BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS and all that that entails.

It seems to be gold does well in periods of DISEQUILIBRIUM; gold thrives when bad men and negative economic events are in the ascendancy. If savings, investment, consumption, and currency and real wealth creation were always in perfect harmony - and if all debtors and would-be debtors always creditworthy - arguably there would be no need for gold. However, such a state of affairs does not exist. Hence, the need for gold in the function it serves.

One specific instance of DISEQUILIBRIUM is BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS, or the aging of the baby boom. The boomer must defer consumption, and try to save and invest for retirement. The relative numbers of the boomer generation itself constitutes disequilibrium; in other words, the generations are out of whack demographically. Also, over and above their disproportionate numbers, the boomers "earn" a disproportionate amount of the nation's wealth. Hence, the quantum of savings or - more properly - attempted savings is not conducive to harmonious economic activity. For a while, the market was a great way not only to "save"(or so everyone thought), but to grow effortless wealth. However, this growth in share price valuations was a function of asset inflation. Too much boomer money, as well as borrowed money from boomers and other age groups, was chasing too few stocks. The apparent rise in valuations sucked more and more currency into the equity markets. The trouble was, this couldn't go on forever. Unlike some on this Forum, I don't view equities as a great Satan; at root, they're just a means of owning a business. The trouble is, at some point the share price valuations have to accord in some meaningful way with a company's earnings or, for the more aggressive investors or speculators, with the potential, future earnings. This is why the tech sector exploded; it was possible for some to delude themselves into believing that earnings could catch up with valuations, whereas such delusions were not possible with mature companies possessing more predictable earnings profiles.

I will segue in to the analogy of the sponge. When there is too much currency or liquidity, it gets needs to get soaked up by a sponge.

Traditionally, gold served as the sponge, sucking up the excess currency and liquidity. With the dawn of technology, it became easier to purchase equities and equity mutual funds. Hence, there was indeed a paradigm shift which made equities easier to own, and which would legitimately increase their relative role in individual's economic lives. However, the influx of money into relatively few equities (exacerbated by the popularity of index funds) resulted in perverse economic signals being sent. The rapid rise in equities' valuations sucked more liquidity into the equities "sponge". And why not, you couldn't lose? Of course, the equities sponge has limited absorption capacity, because of the need to keep some rational semblance between the valuations, and earnings and/or earnings potential. Essentially, the equities markets have hit their absorption capacity. In fact, they are now discharging water.

Where does the water, or liquidity, discharged by the equities sponge go? It goes into Treasuries, money market funds and savings/chequing accounts. the trouble is, this sponge also has a limited capacity to absorb liquidity. For this sort of savings/investment vehicle to work, there must exist creditworthy debtors and potential debtors. At some point, there exists too much money to loan, and not enough creditworthy borrowers. One either must risk lending to those who are higher risks, or face a very low or no rate of return. In fact, one could face a liquidity trap, where there exists negative rates of real interest. In fact, in Canada, when interest rates went down too low, bank service charges went up. Such service charges must be considered in assessing the real rate of return.

At some point, the bonds/money market funds/savings accounts,etc., will have to discharge some liquidity, due to their limited absorption capacity. First, as stated above, there will be negative rates of real return. Second, there will be credit risk and default risk. Even in a bank, the government insurance is limited to a certain amount, and it can take years to collect.

Once equities and debt instruments reach their absorption capacity, the next sponge will be gold. Gold has yet to serve this function for the boomers for various reasons. First, the boomers were generally not raised to equate gold with money in any serious way. (This is especially true of late boomers such as myself, and those born subsequent to the boomers). Second, equities were doing so well, few thought of gold. Third, central bank and bullion bank activities released many new gold sponges onto the market, such that the individual sponges did not grow larger as they absorbed more liquidity.

However, the situation is changing. Not only are equities not viewed as a good investment, but losses mean they have lost their cachet as a form of savings. Also, debt-based instruments will eventually lose their cachet because of negative rates of return and credit/default risk. That leaves gold. The POG is beaten down so far, it should increase as money finally starts chasing gold again. The rise in the POG will generate interest some buzz, and more buying interest. Also, physical gold has no $20,000 or $60,000 (in Canada it's $60,000) insurance ceiling on safety deposits; physical gold solves the credit/default risk problem. Gold does not need to justify its valuation on a P/E basis, as equities must eventually do. Finally, as more people own gold, the government will be less inclined to artificially suppress the POG because such actions will impoverish the politically powerful boomers. Also, suppressing the POG would create a negative wealth effect as we're now experiencing with the equities markets.

In short, I submit BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS will be the Fifth Horseman.

R Powell
(04/02/2001; 17:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51296)
Many posts to read

Wow! This is great. We must be getting near to the contest deadline, no?
JMB Did you really hear Ron Insanea mention gold and safe haven in the same sentence. There was a time when a word from his mouth could double a dot com in a heartbeat. If it's gold he favors, I certainly hope he hasn't lost his touch. Maybe we should buy him breakfast tomorrow to make sure he's bright eyed and bushy tailed.
Rockgrabber, I've used Lind-Waldock for years with no problems whatsoever. $22 round trip, deep discount, They fill orders only. That's all I want to pay for. Advice I get here. For physical, M.K.,of course.
YGM!! Great to hear from you. Tell us of your adventures while you were away.
Rich
R Powell
(04/02/2001; 19:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51297)
********The New Fifth Horseman***********

From CNBC, (drum roll)... Mr. Ron Insana!!
ax
(04/02/2001; 19:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51298)
INDUSTRIAL GOLD USE CONFERENCE TUESDAY

Keep your eye on the Catalytic Gold Conference commencing
in Cape Town tomorrow. Researchers are coming from all over the world. Platinum and Palladium may soon have some
significant competition in specific areas of industrial
consumption.
YGM
(04/02/2001; 19:23:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51299)
R Powell
Rich..Not many adventures, just using mining equip for everything 'BUT' mining....One winter in oilpatch was worth more than last five in the goldfields! Thanks for asking.
I'll let that placer gold sit for another 40,000 plus years before ever returning to the creeks at under $500. p/oz.
(I'll project my timeframe of that being in 2002) Here's hoping anyway...Keep the faith. Hope you're well and prospering, as well as all the forum folks here and absent.
....Ken
Tree in the Forest
(04/02/2001; 20:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51300)
Comex metals
It appears that gold has broken out to the downside out of it's falling wedge which at this point would be an apex around $260. It should be interesting to see if support at $252 can hold. The analytical link to longwaves that I posted a few weeks ago, predicted a possible spike down in gold to below $200 to be followed by a sharp rise some time after April 30. This is such a manipulated market however, that it's anybody's guess and only the PE knows for sure.
In spite of predictions of an impending aluminum shortage, this may take a while to develop. Comex Aluminum stocks stand in excess of 100,000 short tons with OI for near months at around 1600 contracts or around 35,000 tons. So if a problem is going to develop in aluminum, it's not showing up so far in the Comex numbers.
Copper though is another story. Stoppers for March numbered 8877 contracts and so far in April we have 3801 stoppers for a total of 12,678. At 12.5 short tons per contract this is 158,475 tons for delivery. Copper stocks continue to dribble in slowly but current stock is only 106,339 barely enough to meet March delivery much less April. Failing a large delivery to Comex, copper is in trouble. Since April copper is already up for delivery, this may happen this month. Stay tuned.
JMB
(04/02/2001; 21:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51301)
R POWELL
I thought my ears were deceiving me but Sir CANAMANi's confirmation has provoked an evening of hyper-optimism and a general feeling of ecstasy. That is, until you posted your query. I had suppressed Mr. Insana's subsequent conversation with the dastardly Joe Kernan. When Mr. Insana asked Kernan for his opinion re gold, the base dung hill lout muttered something incomprehensible while shaking his head in the negative. The prick! Kernan, in a matter of seconds had undone the noble effort of Mr. Insana, aka THE NEW FIFTH HORSEMAN.

And now for a glass of grape juice and off to bed.
AUgustUS
(04/02/2001; 23:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51302)
********The New Fifth Horseman***********
Throughout these past few months, several "lone" horseman have been sent out into the world of gold. "Y2K" was but one of several knights sent out by our fifth horseman to create a subtle diversion. "Y2K's" mission has been accomplished. "Y2K" merely revealed one of the many "faces" of our 5th horseman. The face revealed was that of ........"complacency". Do not be fooled. Complacency is not our 5th horseman. Complacency is but one of his "fallible" attributes.

The doom and gloom predictions surrounding Y2K - were NOT "fulfilled". Numerous doom and gloom scenarios that have "threatened" the worlds' financial system over the past few years - have apparently - NOT been "fulfilled". This may well be wishful thinking.

The Euro's introduction is still being debated in the "media" in terms of whether it is going to be successfully launched or not. The fact that the EU is "managing" it's currency on a "sound" monetary basis is lost to the "economists" of the world. The fact that the EU has been following a "stricter" interest rate policy than the US these past few months indicates their commitment to the long-term standing of the Euro as a worthy "international" trade currency substitute to the US dollar. The merits of the Euro and it's functioning have been well explained by others more proficient than myself.

Oil has been delivering on his promise - yet his effects are still being labeled by the "media" as a short-term anomaly. The repercussions of his actions are being "massaged away" through "trusted statistics". Improvements in PC processing power and now the possibility of improved medical technology are being labeled as "cost saving" and "productivity enhancing" indicators. Given that food and energy are not important to anybody - these are conveniently left out of the equations. However, just as the Euro is well on the road to fulfill it's international monetary role, so has the soft underbelly of the entire "real economic production chain" been exposed by the superb "disguised" performance of oil.

The stock market meltdown is still being debated in terms of whether it is - or is not - in a bear market. The media has not made much fuss about Cisco. Just over a year ago, Cisco was apparently the largest company in the world by market capitalization. As of last week (only 1 year later), it is now some 70-80 % down from it's high's. Think about that for a minute. The largest company in the world just over a year ago is now down 70-80 %. Are we in a bear market or not ? Does the performance of Cisco as the largest company in the world just over a year ago not give us some idea of what we can expect ? "Complacency" and "rationalisation" (another face of our 5th horseman) suggests that Cisco was just another anomaly.

The Asian contango has also merely been brushed under the carpet by the "media". Many skeletons still hang in those dusty "old" cupboards. They have all been declared "dead" by the media - while "complacency", "rationalisation" and "hope" (yet another face of our 5th horseman) have not bothered to follow up with the burials. These skeletons are all going to need to be "buried" before the living can continue on their journeys. As with all things in life, the chapters of life can only continue once the previous ones have been properly closed. There are still many chapters to be written. However, there are many chapters that first need to be properly closed. The burials are going to painful, but necessary.

So then, what do these few faces (complacency, rationalisation & hope) reveal about the identity of our 5th horseman and his much anticipated rush to physical gold ownership ? The revealed faces are those of "the man in the street". Our 5th horseman is no one other than "the man in the street".

All the "permanent" and "temporary" horseman todate have simply been preparing the battle lines along which the final rush to gold will play itself out. The 5th horseman is waiting in the wings. He has been using every "face" available to "avoid" joining the fray. Once the "stage has been set" - our 5th horseman will be set loose to "play his part".

The final catalyst to the unfolding world events will be the full participation of our 5th horseman racing down centre stage. Through the harnessing of the "uncontrollable (yet directable) animal instincts" of our 5th horseman - the "landscape" as we currently know it will be permanently changed.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/2001; 23:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51303)
A Canadian incentive...or compelling reason for Americans to diversify into gold sooner than later?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010402/n02380791_2.htmlHEADLINE: Canada dollar slips to new 2-1/2 year low

TORONTO, April 2 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar fell below
C$1.58 against the U.S. dollar for the first time in 2-1/2 years on Monday and was on the brink of tumbling to its record low of C$1.5850.
+
Dealers said its slide primarily reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar rather than the weakness of the Canadian one.
...
The greenback has been steamrolling over most currencies in recent sessions with the Australian dollar and South African rand among its latest casualties. Both currencies sank to record lows against the U.S. dollar. ----END_excerpt----

This will not help the U.S. move meaningfully toward a balance on International trade of goods and services. When the next trade report comes out (in 2-1/2 weeks), you can likely expect to see that the U.S. continues to suffer a large net outflow of gold to our foreign trade partners. On a personal household basis (the one that truly matters MOST) are you a net gold importer? Let's hope so. At 22-year-low prices in the American currency, buying gold has never been easier.
Parsifal
(04/02/2001; 23:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51304)
Tree in the Forest: Comex metals

Tree, from msg# 51300:

***
Copper though is another story. Stoppers for March numbered 8877 contracts and so far in April we have 3801 stoppers for a total of 12,678. At 12.5 short tons per contract this is 158,475 tons for delivery. Copper stocks continue to dribble in slowly but current stock is only 106,339 barely enough to meet March delivery much less April. Failing a large delivery to Comex, copper is in trouble. Since April copper
is already up for delivery, this may happen this month. Stay tuned.
***

OK, will stay tuned. What was the resolution to the similar situation you posted about Comex silver several days ago? Something about many contracts calling for delivery and there not being enough Comex silver to satisfy those stoppers. I expect that if there had been a near crisis or default, we would have heard about that. What happened?

In whatever polite tone is appropriate, I must say that I have read many, many articles on this and other similar forums the last few years that qualify as just another time when the little boy cried wolf, sometimes dealing with Au, sometimes Ag, and sometimes with other metals.

The very slow degradation in the POG feels to me as if it is absolutely the worst possible case. If the paper gold markets would just fail, and send the paper-gold price to zero, that would be a relief. Or, if the POG held steady (even if at these very low rates), that would be less painful that what we have now. What we have now is the worst. It is such that there is only a very thin case that can be made for holding an amount of physical gold in excess of a hunded or so ounces for use in times of the worst types of crises.

Two men in my head were talking:

GoldSalesman: Buy gold.
Me: Why?
GoldSalesman: Two reasons, its price will eventually go very high and make you wealthy, and in times of crises you wil need it to preserve your wealth. Financial crisis is coming.
Me: But, the POG has been declining steadily for years, and the type of crises in which I will need gold, although possible, have not happened in this country in my lifetime, or in my father's lifetime, or my grandfather's, or my great grandfather's. Beyond that, I don't know. It somehow makes it seem that the likelihood for that type of crisis is remote.
GoldSalesman: It will happen in your lifetime.
Me: When? I have suffered and caused others to suffer by locking so much money into gold. I must hide the gold, protect it. I worry about it. Gold provides no immediate benefit. I could have spent the money on so many other things, things that could have provided comfort, luxury, improved health, lengthened, strengthened, made me grow hair again.
GoldSalesman: Washington Agreement, hyperinflation, deflation, depression, war, Comex defaults, TOCOM defaults, BOE overextended, LBMA paper-gold derivitive defaults, market breakdown, Chinese physical gold market coming soon, EU, European Central Bank physical gold market, BIS plays trump card, euro becomes reserve currency, U.S. dollar falls from reserve currency status, Arabs hold mountains of paper gold contracts that must be honored, gold for oil, euro will displace the dollar in trade for oil, . . .
Me: Yes, yes, I have been listening for years. None of those issues seems to have done much for the POG. It's still low and falling.
GoldSalesman: See what I mean!! It's a great time to buy gold! Buy it now before the coming big price increases.

Parsifal

Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/02/2001; 23:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51305)
Japanese cautioned against parking funds in U.S. dollars
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010402/t51502_2.htmlTOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - As the new fiscal year starts, Japanese investors tired of low yields at home and a tumbling yen are looking poised for a splurge into U.S. Treasuries, but some analysts are advising caution and say such a move could be risky.
+
With 10-year interest rates near rock-bottom at around 1.350 percent and stock prices close to 16-year lows, Japanese investors are hoping foreign asset markets can offer stronger returns.
+
...But despite the yen's 30-month lows against the dollar struck on Monday, there are some sceptics who say the premise for subsequent flow of Japanese funds into Treasuries may not be so rock-solid.
+
Some also pointed out that the dollar was already near its highest levels in more than a decade when gauged against the trade-weighted average of six major currencies , and as a result could be looking a little overbought.
``If you take the dollar rate on the yen for example, the dollar gained more than 10 percent this year. I wonder how much room is left for the dollar to rise,'' the fund manager said. ----End_Excerpt-----

When the dollar fails to be as "good as gold", were can foreign investors park their funds when they seek to flee the domestic currency? Gold, of course. It is as 22-year lows (unlike the Nasdaq which has only fallen to two-and-a-half-year lows), so with gold you have peace of mind that you are not buying into the froth of an investment bubble.
TEX
(04/03/2001; 00:07:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51306)
Parsifal - post 51304 - Hall of Fame Material
That "conversation" between the "Gold Salesman" and "Me" is a classic. It should be required reading for anyone interested in investing in gold! You have my nomination (not that it means much).View Yesterday's Discussion.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 00:38:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51307)
I know it wasn't your intention, Parsifal, but that was a great summary!
You listed these items:
--- "Washington Agreement, hyperinflation, deflation, depression, war, Comex defaults, TOCOM defaults, BOE overextended, LBMA paper-gold derivitive defaults, market breakdown, Chinese physical gold market coming soon, EU, European Central Bank physical gold market, BIS plays trump card, euro becomes reserve currency, U.S. dollar falls from reserve currency status, Arabs hold mountains of paper gold contracts that must be honored, gold for oil, euro will displace the dollar in trade for oil, . . ."---

Personally, in light of these conditions (particularly the "gold scramble" at the Bank of England after the failed appeal to the IMF for gold during 1998-99), if I held any positions in the Paper Gold System, I would see the writing on the wall for the coming default and add to the selling pressure to get out. As you know, there is counterparty risk in paper gold, but none in physical gold.

Although the price of gold metal remains detatched from the physical market (due to the derivative price discovery mechanism), with all these conditions you've mentioned, we would do well not to take them lightly regarding their impact on other markets. Do they build your confidence in continuing future strength of the dollar in currency markets? Do they build your confidence in the economy at large, thus making the stock market look attractive?

Hard assets remain the place to be, and prudent diversification into gold remains a solid course of action for as long as the metal continues to flow from the mines and the leased accounts at these 22-year low prices. (And with that im mind, anyone with unallocated, leased gold accounts would do well to ask their account custodians to either deliver the gold, or else move it into an unleased holding account.)
Parsifal
(04/03/2001; 01:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51308)
TEX, Randy

Thanks TEX. Life is full of surprises.

Randy, not sure what my intention was, probably just expressing disappointment, howling in pain. Perhaps I have been imprudent, too aggresive, in my gold purchases. The more the POG slowly drops, the more I think that is the case. On the other hand, if the POG were to . . . [you know the story].

It is this very slow, agonizing decay that is so difficult to tolerate. It is like the decay of any investment going bad. There are many opportunities to bail and cut the losses, as with those who invested heavily in stocks that dropped, having passed on so many opportunities to bail. Surely this is not the time to sell, I hope.

[about the gloom and doom items]
Randy: Do they build your confidence in continuing future strength of the dollar in currency markets?

Me: No.

Randy: Do they build your confidence in the economy at large, thus making the stock market look attractive?

Me: No.

Even though such an act might very well compound my possible imprudence, I frequently wonder if the right thing to do is to buy all I can, now, because this is the bottom. For a long time, it has been correct for me to wait, because the POG has continued to drop, and physical gold continues to be available at the low paper-gold derivitive price.

Parsifal
Black Blade
(04/03/2001; 01:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51309)
Low Natural Gas Storage Levels Critical
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010402/dam065.html

Snippit:

``The weather for the past week at the 15 critical weather points that affect storage levels at this time of the year was about 67 percent colder than normal. This draw down will put the U.S. natural gas system at only two-thirds the average storage levels for recent years at the beginning of April. We can expect the added demand to get gas into storage before next winter to put upward pressure on gas prices over the next six or seven months,'' said Dr. Donald Murry, vice president of C. H. Guernsey & Company.

Black Blade: The energy crisis is going to hit hard over the next few months. With low NG storage, minimal snowpack levels in the west, a decaying Third World power grid and increasing demand, the cost to the economy will be rather burdensome. Life is about to get "interesting."
Black Blade
(04/03/2001; 02:02:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51310)
Beware of Fool's Gold (Anti-Gold Propaganda)
http://biz.yahoo.com/smart/010402/20010402asksmar.html

Snippit:

QUESTION:

With the market still slumping, should I start buying gold?

-- Nick Marriott

ANSWER:

To be perfectly blunt, the answer is no. Unless you're looking to adorn yourself in glitzy baubles, there's no financial benefit to buying gold, silver or any other precious metal for that matter. If anything, these trinkets add risk to your portfolio.

Black Blade: This is from a publication called "Smart Money." There's an oxymoron here. Of course these are some of the same people who urged that investors throw cash into the Dot.Coms with abandon. And we know how that advice turned out. Mr. Marriott misses the point altogether. The point is that the financial benefit is that gold is a form of portfolio insurance. Of course there is no financial benefit to having a subscription to "Smart Money" either as it is nothing more than a running advertisement for brokerages, mutual funds and investment advisors.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 03:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51311)
Black Blade's "Fool's Gold" post
I took a look at your article. Even though I grasp the hidden dual purpose underlying these anti-gold rants, the fact that they continue to expend this much anti-gold propaganda effort never fails to impress me.

The milder attacks on gold are surely the workings of those with interests in maintaining the status quo of investment sentiment to support brokerage houses and investment services as you've said. That's the first purpose underlying this attacks on gold.

But it is telling that our own beloved MK, with a vested interest in drawing more business to Centennial Precious Metals, does not himself find a corresponding compulsion to beat the streets to foster "tit-for-tat" anti-Wall Street sentiment. He calmly, consistently and presciently advises prudent partial diversification of investment portfolios into precious metals, notably gold.

But back to the anti-gold propaganda. The second purpose behind the negative sentiment being foisted upon us via the media is evident by the source of the more virulent attacks against gold diversification. With few exceptions, these anti-gold spinmeisters are involved in bullion banking and gold leasing operations.

They are fearful of the unrelenting tightness in the physical market, and are therefore putting forth this effort as a means of fostering relief. It is the classic confidence game played by the bank managers during the banking days of old when faced with an imminent bank run. You can almost hear them say, "Don't worry folks...you have no need to take physical hold of your money. Just trust us at our word on these matters." Sheeeeeesh.

Such efforts belie their tenuous positions, and I would not therefore have a single ounce of gold in an unallocated leased account unless I were willing to relinquish entirely the pseudo-notion of current ownership implied by the monthly or quarterly account statements. Call your custodians and ensure the safety of any stake you have in such leased accounts...accounts which are themselves a form of "paper gold" that is subject to counterparty risk.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 03:51:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51312)
Parsifal, this is somewhat related to our conversation...
Check out this comment from a London gold trader as quoted by Reuters yesterday:

--- "Gold tends to take its lead from currencies these days and behaves much like a currency itself," said one trader.---

Would you want to hold a national currency if that nation's banking system was in trouble? The lesson here is that it is the paper aspect of gold that dominates the bullion banking system and provides the aspect of "currency". Therefore, given the apparent position of the bullion banking system, it is no wonder that the gold derivatives continue to be sold down the drain, even as the World Gold Council statistics continue to report record demand for the physical metal.

The reason to take action to lock orders into physical positions sooner rather than later is that there is no way for ANYONE to know in ADVANCE when this favorable system for buying will turn or when rules might be changed.
Black Blade
(04/03/2001; 04:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51313)
Another Down Day on Wall Street?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmThe market indices futures are falling fast. We head into the so-called "Earnings Season" and the results are guaranteed to be disappointing. One common theme has been and will continue to be "higher energy costs." Gold has recovered most of yesterday's losses in overnight trading. Joe Battapaglia of Gruntal and Co. is still pounding away his message that the markets have bottomed. He has been beating this dead horse since Nasdaq 3500 and Dow 10500. Erik Gustavson of Stein Roe is pleading for calm and begging for investors to plunge back in to the market. Janus Funds have reported that they have experienced net withdrawals recently. As investors back off and look for safe habor, the markets are sure to head into a "Death Spiral." They are just now recieving their quarterly statements and the fear and panic will likely take hold. Today's market action could be "interesting." Golden Dreams All!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/03/2001; 05:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51314)
Gold Fields to Support Research Into New Industrial Uses for Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/010403/gold_fields_new_uses.html

Snippit:

Chris Thompson, Chairman and Chief Executive of Gold Fields said; "Gold producers have in the past not spent enough time and money on developing new product applications for gold. Through this project we aim to explore the potential for gold and gold alloys to be used in catalytic and other new applications. We believe there is substantial potential for gold to replace existing products and to create new ones.

While these types of devices might only use a few hundred milligrams of gold a piece, their potential market runs to tens of millions of units and they could end up being a significant consumer of gold."

Black Blade: I almost forgot, today begins the Catalytic Gold Conference in Johannesburg, SA. I've posted on this subject in the past. We should hear more over the next 4 days as the Conference proceeds.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 05:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51315)
Building from the previous post to address outstanding issues...
This "paper gold" currency aspect of the gold market is something that most modern people do not see in their daily lives, and that is why I suggested in a previous post that people would not miss it (the currency aspect) upon the subsequent punishing failure of the bullion banking sector resulting from the so-called "crack-up boom" experienced in the expansion of gold-denominated credit as metal flows from leasable accounts.

Perhaps I can build some common ground with Elwood when I say that his comment is a natural fit with these thoughts I have shared. Elwood said Saturday night, "Nothing short of the crack-up boom will change the ingrained western view of money."

Once bitten by bullion banking, will gold owners travel that road of risking gold again at these levels? Not likely. That is a glimpse of what stood behind my comments from last Wednesday where I said that 'gold shall lose only its "currency" function...which most people cannot today recognize or comprehend. Nor, then, shall they miss it.'

ET took exception to that comment, saying to me:
--- "I beg to differ. ... I would be willing to wager you that "most people" would have little difficulty understanding gold's currency function given the opportunity."---

I would ask him, realistically, under what conceivable scheme will "most people" be given this opportunity? And therefore, where is the relevance in the real world we are living in today?

I submit that even among the visitors to this Discussion Forum, the world's best-educated gold-minded people, most of us have more experience with -- and a better conception of -- gold as a WEALTH ASSET (like real estate or other tangible hard assets and tradable property), than as a currency. This is perfectly fine and perhaps as it should be, though it must be said that the "wealth asset value" is currently diminished by the artificial supply radiating from the residual "paper gold currency" operations among the bullion banking players.

As I have explained how gold's usage will subsequently come to be dominated as a primary savings asset in much the way that it currently is in many parts of the world, ET protested on Saturday, saying that I have made "no provision for determining gold's value when [I] subtract its currency function."

What??? Do houses and cars and computers and corn not find their proper value in the absence of their "currency function"? I would therefore suggest, in like manner physical gold, too, can be priced by the available and excess paper currency of the world, and the relative value of gold metal will be found in comparing its resulting price to the price of all other things...just as we compare the value of bread to the value of bicycle tires or to soap. As more excess national currency falls into the hands of would-be savers, the price of gold will rise in terms of that currency as the conversion is made.

But alas, the true nature of our problem now comes to light. It is clear that ET and I shall not get past the simple use of terms, though through no fault of my own. After I have taken care to define the concept behing represented behind the usage of a 5-letter english-sounding word that I have employed in recent posts, ET dismisses my effort as "nonsense", apparently because he refuses to see the concept behind the familiar letters. Perhaps I should have used numeric symbols instead? Specifically, he rejects anything connected to my usage of recognizing only real wealth items (such as gold) to be attached to the term "money" in my posts. Et says to me:
--- "Nonsense. Fiat dollars are currency as well as money."---

I am ill-equiped to discuss matters toward a meaningful resolution when such a superficial level of participation is put forth by the other party. However, I promise to offer up a body words in short order toward which ET and others may be more receptive or tolerant.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 05:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51316)
Black Blade
Sir Black Blade, post #51309

If I may suggest, rather than "life is about to get "interesting""

Substitue....life is about to get painful for most.

Sir if I may, I would like to confess that I am a great "fan" of your post.
I believe that this energy crisis (oil/ng/electricity) and related infastructure problems, can and will cause massive unemployment in the states. I work in an industry, that requires 250 MEG on going and we also generatre our own.

As far as the production process goes, it could not tollerate unexpected shutdowns of any sizeable duration because plant start-ups are so costly. If this was to happen on an ongoig forseeable future I'm sure the plant would be shut dow, due to profitability.

If I am correct in assuming that you said that the US produces 40% of its consumption, and outside sources were cut off, 60% of the industrial base would have to be shutdown. IMHO that and the reprocussions of same would not be interesting, more like pain I think.

May your chalise overflow.

SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 06:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51317)
Is it too late for a Fifth horseman entry????
Sir's & m�Ladies,

Seems to me that US government got their meddling hands caught in the proverbial "cookie jar" (intentionally or otherwise) and have the audacity to give a stern warning to China. Maybe, the PE are just keeping the pot stirred. New Fifth Horseman could be US meddling in China's affairs.

Just imagine what you would do if you caught someone looking in your bedroom window every night.

SOTG
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 06:07:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51318)
HEADLINE: Asian Currencies Find Calm Before Brewing Storm
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010403/sp265813.htmlSINGAPORE, April 3 (Reuters) - Japanese officials expressed concern over the swift decline of the yen to Monday's 2-1/2 year low ..... Authorities in Seoul and Bangkok also tried to ward off further losses in their currencies through verbal, and in the case of Korea, actual intervention.----

And with the yen expected to slide further, Reuters goes on to report...

----- analysts said the other major bugbear regional currencies were facing was investor risk aversion, which has gripped the market recently.
"Risk aversion is bad news for Southeast Asian currencies where investors are faster at getting out of positions when things look ugly," said Rebecca Patterson, regional currency strategist at JP Morgan Chase in Singapore.--------

Having built up foreign exchange reserves since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, Reuters reports that analysts expect central banks are "unlikely to spend precious foreign exchange reserves defending their currencies", suggesting that such a hands-off attitude facilitates a degree of competitive devaluation to keep pace with the yen in support of national exports.

When Real Wealth is offered for cheap prices, seize the day -- whether it's in the form of needed household appliances from Korea, or everlasting gold-money from the LBMA.
FredBear
(04/03/2001; 06:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51319)
Rockgrabber (04/02/01; 12:29:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51256)
http://www.xpresstrade.com/index.htmlRockGrabber, I use XpressTrade and am very happy with their service. They are the only company I could find that does "contingent orders" online. For example, I can put in my Buy order and a sell stop at the same time, with the stop only activated when the Buy is filled.

Good luck.
FredBear
(04/03/2001; 06:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51320)
SOTG
"Just imagine what you would do if you caught someone looking in your bedroom window every night."

I would count, 3-5-7.

Little bullet of humor.


Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/03/2001; 06:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51321)
Parsifal @ # 51300

Sir

Some of the better posts are those in which we pour out our souls. When we do this the integrity of the post is transparent. Such is the case with your post # 51300.

Another characteristic of a good post�the post sparks the thinking of the readers and they cannot help but respond in one way or another. You have presented a good picture of the emotional side of the gold dilemma as you question not only why we would choose gold over paper but how much and why when you say regarding the current movement of POG:

"It is such that a very thin case can be made for holding an amount of physical gold in excess of a hundred or so ounces for use in times of the worst types of crises."

My comments:

The case is very thin indeed. A hundred ounces or so, you say? That is what makes your case thin. This physical amount offers no relationship to anything.

One hundred ounces would be extremely large for my daughter and her husband. They have no assets to protect. They have no savings except what they put back to pay for replacement of their autos and to pay for the expected cost of the healthy delivery of the future children. These savings are to avoid debt when the future, sure to come need, arises. Above that they do not have the wherewithal to protect themselves with much physical gold. I encourage them to do their best to buy enough to protect their net assets (15%-25%) At this time their assets net of debt and their total assets are identical because they are debt free. Their net assets in this case are in the neighborhood of only $15,000. About all thy can afford to hold in gold would be say, eight to thirteen ounces of Gold Eagles.

Now I have a client who has a net worth conservatively valued at $6,000,000. One hundred or so ounces of physical gold would be extremely low for him and his family. This case calls for more than 100 ounces. 3,200 to 5,400 ounces would be more appropriate for this family.

Why do I suggest 15%-25% in holdings? Long before I had ever heard of the notion of "walking in the footsteps of giants" I developed the very approach. I had been reading the likes of Harry Schultz, James Dine, and John Pugsley and discovered that�over the centuries the extremely wealthy have always held 10% to 25% of their assets in physical gold and that even the central banks of the world held a similar proportion of their reserves in gold. This appears to be true still today.

It partly depends upon the purpose one has in holding physical metals. As you suggest, "for use in times of the worst types of crises." I do not know what you mean by this. Could you elaborate? It seems that if it were to take 100 ounces to buy political freedom my daughter and her husband would certainly become political slaves, unless of course, enough time expires for them to accumulate more physical or until that time comes the parents accumulate an excess for the needs of their children. If the purpose of the physical were to insure net worth against paper loss the 100-ounce figure would certainly be a variable. A fair observation, I think, would be��the higher the propensity for upheaval the greater the need to increase the percentage of gold holdings.� This could possibly explain the historic range of 15% to 25%. In any event everyone has to determine reasons for holding physical and assess the propensity for upheaval.

Then you have the extreme nut case, me!!! I am paranoid at this point. I try not to pass this disease on to others. I hold at this time approximately 75% of my net worth in physical precious metals. Perhaps I am the fool of the ages. Time will tell.

Very respectfully,

HBM
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 06:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51322)
FredBear
Sir,

My sentiments exactly.
Presently in my country we are in the process of undergoing gun registration. Hand guns have had to be registered for a long time now and that's ok with me.

But, I can find no crime fighting practical purpose for regestering hunting rifles. A 30-06 with a 3x9 variable scope is useless at robbing banks. (accuracy at 40 ft is terrible do to bullet tragectory & scope resolution).

As far as crimes of passion go, if the rifle is registered or not, they will still happen due to the irrarional situation of such.

It appears though the only useful purpose of registration is for confiscation. Just as sheep to the alter though, there is nothing we can do about it.

SOTG
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 06:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51323)
Addressing another issue for ET before moving on...
ET, among other items, you also made this misrepresentation of my position on Saturday, saying to me, "You have further stated that ... we should trust a European bureaucracy to arbitrarily price this store of value in a currency of their issue."

Where does this come from? I have expended considerable time explaining the ECB's utilization of "best practices" now in vogue in the international banking realm, specifically with regard to the quarterly marking of gold reserves to market value. As anyone knows who have followed this, my commentary does not indicate that these values are arbitrarily set like they were here in the early 1930's by U.S. President Roosevelt and SecTreas Morgenthau, but rather, they are taken from London's gold fix on the last business day of each quarter. So you see, as long as the LBMA maintains confidence in its expansive paper gold banking system, the dollar-denominated price will reflect the vast paper supply of gold, not the smaller physical supply. It is thus in the ECB's future best interest to not hinder any movement toward a physical-based gold market, and to curb gold lending as revealed by the Washington agreement.

Data for the ESCB revaluation will not be available until Wednesday, but this article regarding similar activity in Switzerland is instructive...note that the price has risen in Swiss francs since December even as our price in dollars has fallen. This phenomenon, too, has been discussed.

------
SNB GOLD: Swiss gold reserves up 21.8 mln Sfr to 34.123 bln

Zurich, April 2 (BridgeNews) - The Swiss National Bank said the value of its gold reserves rose 21.8 million Swiss francs in the last 10 days of March to reach 34.123 billion francs, it announced Monday. The rise in the reserves is due of the regular revaluation, with the value being raised to 14,388 francs per kilogram from 14,355 francs at the end of 2000, it said.
canamami
(04/03/2001; 07:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51324)
Reply to Randy - Various Posts
Randy,

Your point re paper gold affecting the physical price is well-taken, but at some point there must be physical to back up the paper. Up to now, the "manipulators" have been able to find sufficient physical to back up their paper. For example, there has been no default on the COMEX, in that physical is delivered when requested.

Now, in the period prior to the Washington Agreement, I recall there was indeed substantial physical gold tranferred/settled through the COMEX. This was the one period since 1997 when the shock predicted by FOA looked like it would come to fruition, when the price shot up to about $330.00 from about $255.00. However, the physical gold was found to effect settlement. (I do note that the COMEX altered its margin rules to hamper the longs, on that occasion).

In short, are we seeing a price determined strictly by paper, or a genuine physical gold settlement price, but one determined by manipulation, paper gold merely being one of the tools of manipulation and the release of official physical reserves being one of the other tools?

ET
(04/03/2001; 08:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51325)
Randy

Hey Randy - thanks for your thoughts. You write in part;

"ET took exception to that comment, saying to me:
--- "I beg to differ. ... I would be willing to wager you that "most people" would have little difficulty understanding gold's
currency function given the opportunity."---

"I would ask him, realistically, under what conceivable scheme will "most people" be given this opportunity?"

That old scheme of free trade. Do you believe free trade is obsolete?

"And therefore, where is the relevance in the real world we are living in today?"

Did you not see the article I referenced regarding what is happening today in Argentina? The citizens of Argentina would have no difficulty at all assessing gold's value as a currency and frankly I'm unaware that any of them read this forum. I would posit that gold and silver are likely being used as a currency today in Argentina although it would be simply a guess on my part based on my studies of history.

"I submit that even among the visitors to this Discussion Forum, the world's best-educated gold-minded people, most of
us have more experience with -- and a better conception of -- gold as a WEALTH ASSET (like real estate or other
tangible hard assets and tradable property), than as a currency."

Randy, in one paragraph you state that individuals cannot possibly conceive of gold as a currency (tradable property), and in the very next paragraph you claim gold is easily understood as a wealth asset (tradable property). Do you understand my confusion in your explanation of your idea?

"This is perfectly fine and perhaps as it should be, though
it must be said that the "wealth asset value" is currently diminished by the artificial supply radiating from the residual
"paper gold currency" operations among the bullion banking players."

And the reason for this disparity, I might humbly submit, is the notion that gold's currency function can somehow be separated by government decree from its wealth asset function. By attempting to do so, you produce exactly the problem you claim to want to overcome.

"As I have explained how gold's usage will subsequently come to be dominated as a primary savings asset in much the
way that it currently is in many parts of the world, ET protested on Saturday, saying that I have made "no provision for
determining gold's value when [I] subtract its currency function."

"What??? Do houses and cars and computers and corn not find their proper value in the absence of their "currency
function"? I would therefore suggest, in like manner physical gold, too, can be priced by the available and excess paper
currency of the world, and the relative value of gold metal will be found in comparing its resulting price to the price of all
other things...just as we compare the value of bread to the value of bicycle tires or to soap."

If this is true Randy than you should have no problem with gold's "price" at the current $260. Yet, you claim above that this "price" doesn't reflect gold's true value because of government decree. Government through its manipulation of gold's currency value has produced the problem you despise, yet you claim this is OK with you and will somehow resolve itself in your system of the future. I remain confused.

"As more excess national
currency falls into the hands of would-be savers, the price of gold will rise in terms of that currency as the conversion is made."

How could this ever happen in your system of the future if you continue to allow government by decree to remove gold's currency function? Without the ability to actually trade gold in the free market as a currency you would be no better off than today in my opinion.

"But alas, the true nature of our problem now comes to light. It is clear that ET and I shall not get past the simple use of
terms, though through no fault of my own. After I have taken care to define the concept behing represented behind the
usage of a 5-letter english-sounding word that I have employed in recent posts, ET dismisses my effort as "nonsense",
apparently because he refuses to see the concept behind the familiar letters. Perhaps I should have used numeric symbols
instead? Specifically, he rejects anything connected to my usage of recognizing only real wealth items (such as gold) to
be attached to the term "money" in my posts. Et says to me:
--- "Nonsense. Fiat dollars are currency as well as money."---

"I am ill-equiped to discuss matters toward a meaningful resolution when such a superficial level of participation is put
forth by the other party. However, I promise to offer up a body words in short order toward which ET and others may
be more receptive or tolerant."

Randy, I don't believe the problem here is semantics. When confronted with the notion that gold can be a wealth asset at the same time it cannot be freely traded, I have responded to you with the notion that that idea is nonsense. You subsequently have attempted to redefine terms to suit your theory as if calling gold something else somehow makes it something else.

You have contended from the start that in your system of the future we should allow everything but gold to be traded freely. You have posited that for some reason gold should have its currency function removed by government decree. I will once again contend that you haven't shown me any reason to believe this makes any sense at all. The world is replete with examples of why this is a bad idea.

Why not let the free market determine gold's function like it does anything else that is traded? Why do you feel your judgments should be substituted for the judgments of everyone else trading between themselves in a free market?

By the way Randy, in future posts I will endeavor to work on my perceived problem of "superficial level of participation". Thanks for the reply, your condescension is noted if not appreciated. Please carry on.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 08:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51326)
More on the Savings and Currencies debate: Modern-day Mises, for those who will hear nothing else
Why do we each expend the effort to participate in this thought-provoking gold discussion forum? The details of the reasons will surely vary from person to person, but the general reason is likely to be summarized as follows:

"Everyone carries a part of society on his shoulders; no one is relieved of his share of responsibility by others. And no one can find a safe way out for himself in society is sweeping toward destruction. Therefore everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle. None can stand aside with unconcern; the interests of everyone hang on the result. Whether he chooses or not, every man is drawn into the great historic struggle, the decisive battle into which our epoch has plunged us."

Were von Mises alive today, he would no doubt be still engaged vigorously in this "intellectual battle", doing yeoman's work to carry a part of society on his shoulders as he expressed in the above passage.

Above all, we do well to remember that Economics is not a firm science like physics or chemistry wherein those scientists observe inanimate items reacting consistently and predictably with their environment in total absence of a variable called "free will". Absence of free will is a blessing not bestowed upon the critter studied by the philosophers and social scientists who engage in the field of human behavior studies known as Economics.

Despite liberal possession of free will, generalities can be formed, particularly where individuals have latitude to act in their best interest among a range of options. This leads to much effort to write observed behaviors into economic law. Complicating the "science" is the degree to which predictions for individual behavior may be applied to behavior as a group, and by the fact that not only does man REACT TO his environment, he may also choose to ALTER characteristics of the environment in which he interacts and operates. As a gifted philosopher and social observer, von Mises had no trouble recognizing that "trends can change". It is therefore unfortunate that he did not live past 1973 to witness any significant changes, and to subsequently shoulder the burden of thinking for those who will not do it for themselves.

So what did von Mises have to offer in commentary based on observations of his latter days? The following was penned by von Mises for an article in June 1965 based on his observations and thoughts of the (then modern) day, and was subsequently "tweaked" ever so slightly (but obviously) by editors to reflect changed circumstances for its republication in 1980.

An objective review of this will find an appropriate degree of antecedent harmony between this 1960's text and what I offered for the modern day in last week's (3/29/2001; msg# 50963) post which was approximately titled "Savings and Currency: the separation of wealth and state". With that, I shall let von Mises speak for me to those who will not hear it otherwise.

-----(1965) The venerable von Mises wrote: --- In many parts of the earth an increasing number of people realize that the United States and most of the other nations are firmly committed to a policy of progressing inflation. They have learned enough from the experience of the recent decades to conclude that on account of these inflationary policies an ounce of gold will one day become more expensive in terms both of the currency of the United States and of their own country. They are alarmed and would like to avoid being victimized by this outcome.
+
Americans were once forbidden to own gold coins and gold ingots (from 1933 to 1976).[sic] Their attempts to protect their financial assets consisted in the methods that the Germans in the most spectacular inflation that history knows called "Flucht in die Sachwerte" (flight into real values). They are investing in common stocks and real estate, and prefer to have debt payable in legal tender money rather than holding claims payable in it.------

With this demonstration from von Mises, I hope I have managed to put some of my detractors at better ease regarding this theme of thought. If not, I can live with it. Can they?
ET
(04/03/2001; 08:45:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51327)
Randy

Hey Randy - thanks for your thoughts. You write in part;

"ET, among other items, you also made this misrepresentation of my position on Saturday, saying to me, "You have
further stated that ... we should trust a European bureaucracy to arbitrarily price this store of value in a currency of their
issue."

"Where does this come from? I have expended considerable time explaining the ECB's utilization of "best practices" now
in vogue in the international banking realm, specifically with regard to the quarterly marking of gold reserves to market
value."

Well it certainly can't be argued that these "best practices" are best for those wishing to continue the status quo.

"As anyone knows who have followed this, my commentary does not indicate that these values are arbitrarily set
like they were here in the early 1930's by U.S. President Roosevelt and SecTreas Morgenthau, but rather, they are taken
from London's gold fix on the last business day of each quarter."

Har! Apparently we disagree as to the arbitrariness of this London gold fix. Wasn't it you that was contending that this market is "fixed"?

"So you see, as long as the LBMA maintains confidence
in its expansive paper gold banking system, the dollar-denominated price will reflect the vast paper supply of gold, not
the smaller physical supply. It is thus in the ECB's future best interest to not hinder any movement toward a
physical-based gold market, and to curb gold lending as revealed by the Washington agreement."

Well of course this is in their best interest. If gold was trading freely they wouldn't be able to artificially lower market interest rates to their advantage. They also wouldn't be able to flood the world with worthless paper as a substitute for something real, like gold. They further wouldn't be able to enslave the general populace with their debt. No doubt the ECB wishes to take over the fiat racket when the dollar fails for lack of credibility, it's human nature. The ability to "mark to market" gold at an arbitrary value and calling it a free market is just more nonsense.

Thanks.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 08:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51328)
Euro Questions @ Randy of @ All
Sir,

Could you please explain to me, with respect to the Euro, how is the monopoly game going to be set up between the players?

I believe I read that they are maintaining a 15% gold reserve. Is that fixed or can they change this fractional reserve ratio. If that's the case (that they will manipulate it to expand their money supply), it still seems a little bogus to me.

Will each participant have their own gold reserve?

How will they determine how many Euros each country will get to distribute to the populus in exchange for their present fiat?

Does everyone get (2)-500's (2)-100's (2)-50's (6)-20's etc?

Can individual countries and their respective citizens own gold?, or only the ECB?

If they (ECB) wish to increase the money supply, does the ECB have to increase their gold holdings?

What happens to the gold reserves that the individual countries presently have on Jan. 2002?

Could all of these auctions have to do with getting their gold reserves in line with each other?

When is the next 20 tonne BOE auction?

When will the Swiss start auctioning their 1000 tonnes, and in what size parcels? Considering effect of the BOE auctions at 25 tonnes suppressing market POG, at 100 tonnes per year, the Swiss will take 10 years....of suppression.

By the way Randy, I agree with your concept of gold as wealth preservation/insurance as well as
Hill Billy Mitchell's personal "fractional insurance reserve theory/practice." (US/China...I don't think that they are going to play roll over puppy dogs...to US whims)
I also believe, first get out of debt, then with disposable income buy gold. Especially true if one has progeny because who knows what the time line will be when you will need to use this reserve wealth. I will be there soon and we will be talking.

In my mind's eye, the only place at this present time, that I see gold being linked to currency will be with the Euro. That's why I was wondering about the set up of same. Will this be a true gold standard currency?, or some derivative of such?

Since the value/strength of the dollar is inversely proportional to POG, I do understand why everyone hopes the price of gold (physical) to hit the upper stratosphere.( Paper gold sure because you are dealing paper to paper (apple with apples...)) The reason I say this, or what confuses me, is the implication that one would convert their physical into worthless paper. Seems to me that they would retain more real worth keeping it in the ... "physical in hand is better than paper in BUSH!!!!!"... Pun intended.

May your chalice overflow,

SOTG
Rockgrabber
(04/03/2001; 08:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51329)
FredBear
Thank You very much for your response. I am off to check them out! LOTS of good reading here over the last day here! Thanks everyone!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/03/2001; 08:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51330)
ET
"Thanks for the reply, your condescension is noted if not appreciated. Please carry on."

If condescension comes across, then I apologize. Perhaps it is a manifestation of my unavoidable human reaction to the outright dismissive barrage (statements of "wrong", "false", "no", "nonsense", "ludicrous", etc.) which I have patiently endured from you. To be sure, I have labored to treat your thoughts with more respect than to dismiss them outright. I have frequently attempted to take the high road of recommending that you "reconsider" where we differ, and have provided additional evidence or commentary in the effort.

If I have failed to be adequately respectful and offended as a result, then I must now reiterate my apologies to both you AND to MK, for most assuredly this forum is an extension of his company and he deserves a better public face than I can apparently provide.
CoBra(too)
(04/03/2001; 09:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51331)
Franco Nevada's price - fell 10% early today
on news that the co. exchanged its Ken Snyder Mine (Nevada) and 48 Million $ for a stake of almost 20% in the shares of Robert de Cespigny's overhedged Normandy.

Apparently shareholders have been annoyed by this decision to give away real and unencumbered gold in the ground for an interest in pre-sold (ergo) paper gold.

As Pierre Lasonde and Schulich usually don't subscribe to such deals I ponder, what the real reason might be? Anyway, I'm pondering to sell half of my position in what used to be one of my core holdings in the gold mining sector.

Not (dis-)investment advice, though frustrated as I don't see the merit of this move - do you? cb2
ET
(04/03/2001; 09:11:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51332)
Randy

Hey Randy - thanks for the Mises quote. He was always a very observant commentator.

As you have quoted, Mises saw the problem as you and I both have, that inflation is the order of the day for governments worldwide. Attempting to preserve wealth in this environment is of course our goal. We do not differ in that respect.

My argument with you is over your apparent preference for all things European as a panacea for our ills. Your contention that the currency (trading) function of any given asset can somehow be selectively removed and the resulting asset can properly be valuated does not make sense to this observer. You can save all the gold in the world and if things remain as they are today you will never realize gold's true value because you have supported and agreed to not trade gold freely in the marketplace. This is the essense of what you say when you say that people do not understand or need gold's currency function. I'm saying gold is worthless without it. Am I making myself clear?

Thanks.
ET
(04/03/2001; 09:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51333)
Randy

Hey Randy - thanks for your thoughts. You write in part;

"If condescension comes across, then I apologize."

No need to apologize, just try to keep in mind that many of us out here in citizenland consider fiat currency schemes to be the root of all evil in today's world. I am criticizing your idea Randy, not you. Another fiat scheme is simply that, whether or not it is dressed up in words like "real wealth asset", "currency function", "best practices", etc.

"Perhaps it is a manifestation of my unavoidable human reaction to the
outright dismissive barrage (statements of "wrong", "false", "no", "nonsense", "ludicrous", etc.) which I have patiently
endured from you."

Well, I'm not sure how I should express my thoughts if indeed I believe you and others are foisting just another fiat currency scheme on the rest of us. I do believe this scheme is wrong, non-sensical, and ludicrous. My comments are directed at the scheme, not you. My apologies to you if you have interpreted this debate in any other way.

"To be sure, I have labored to treat your thoughts with more respect than to dismiss them outright. I
have frequently attempted to take the high road of recommending that you "reconsider" where we differ, and have
provided additional evidence or commentary in the effort."

Thanks. I have endeavored to do the same.
USAGOLD
(04/03/2001; 09:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51334)
Today's Market Report: The Golden Queen of the Nile: Naas, wife of Gad Khensu Eyuf Ankh (ruler of Bahriya oasis between 589 and 570 BC)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html4/2/01. . . ..(www.usagold.com). . . . .Gold rose in early trading as tensions mounted in Asia and Wall Street took another tumble. The dollar is down in early trading as well. Even yesterday, when New York paper traders took the yellow nearly $3 lower at one point, there were reports of strong physical demand from Asian and U.S. buyers. That demand apparently accelerated this morning beginning in Asia and carrying over to the European session.The gold lease rate bumped up almost .7% in London this morning at 2.47% . This is a firm indication that the supply tightness and substantially higher rates that had been in the gold market for the past couple months may take on more of an air of
permanence as Commerzbank's Ian MacDonald (Please see right) suggested last week.

Over the past few years of publishing these daily ministrations, I have suggested many times that gold should be used as a talisman to ward of the evils of political economy -- numerous as they may be. It has been said that there are no new things under the sun. And that apparently stretches to the concept of golden protection. A tomb of a Pharoah's wife was discovered in Egypt last week wearing an extensive array of 100 gold amulets and other jewelry -- a first in terms of quantity according to a Reuters report this morning. Included in the collection of Naas, wife of Gad Khensu Eyuf Ankh (ruler of Bahriya oasis between 589 and 570 BC), is an Osiris pendant, that will be probably be appraised at priceless. Quite often I believe the demand for gold comes more from an intuitive understanding of its value that goes beyond any economic considerations. Perhaps finding a 2600 year old mummy in the Egyptian desert adorned extensively with gold meant to buy passage to the next life reinforces that observation. In the end, we are all linked one generation to the next and going back as far as our beginnings. We carry with us from one generation to the next all that we consider sacred and of value. Through it all, gold has played a role because mankind has always granted it
value beyond any other inanimate substance. . . . .So it is. So it shall be. MK

P.S. Spent the last few days getting the next issue of News & Views completed. This month's News & Views is going to be a block buster -- 8 pages of Short & Sweet that pretty much covers what's going on in the gold market. If you are new to USAGOLD, you can receive News & Views as well as these (Almost) Daily Commentaries on-line by registering at the'"registration" link above. We are getting to the bottom of the barrell on the German 20 mark coin. If you have an interest, you should act on it as soon as possible. We'll probably be sold out of this item by the end of the week.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 09:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51335)
@ ET & Randy
Sir Knights,

Over the last week, I have really enjoyed the tournament.
It has been very thought provoking.
I am extremely impressed with your arts of jousting, while not making any personnaly directed inflamitory remarks at each other. I wish that Panda and Slatt could have aquired this skill. I do miss their infomative posts.

But, picture this, there is a horse with a head on either end(no tail). This horse has two saddles facing in opposite directions, and a rider in each saddle. By the way, the horse's name is GOLD. From each rider's point of view he views a lanscape. Are they exactly the same? Are they not viewing the lay of the land? Is it not the same land just the landscape is different?

Everyone can have their own reasons and opinions for saving/purchasing gold, and what uses it should have or serve. Non are wrong.

As in the case of the two headed horse, neither lanscape is incorrect, it has a lot to do with relativity. (Einstien...two different observers can look at the same event from two different perspectives and see that event differently). Somone does not have to be wrong here.

Respectfully...just observing,

SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 09:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51336)
Humour!!
Hey Randy,

Does M.K. offer congeniality awards?
Maybe we could have a congeniality contest?
By hook or by...... I'll get a piece somehow!

SOTG
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 09:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51337)
Spelling Corrections....sorry
Sir Knights,

Over the last week, I have really enjoyed the tournament.
It has been very thought provoking.
I am extremely impressed with your arts of jousting, while not making any personnel directed inflammatory remarks at each other. I wish that Panda and Slatt could have acquired this skill. I do miss their informative posts.

But, picture this, there is a horse with a head on either end(no tail). This horse has two saddles facing in opposite directions, and a rider in each saddle. By the way, the horse's name is GOLD. From each rider's point of view he views a landscape. Are they exactly the same? Are they not viewing the lay of the land? Is it not the same land just the landscape is different?

Everyone can have their own reasons and opinions for saving/purchasing gold, and what uses it should have or serve. Non are wrong.

As in the case of the two headed horse, neither landscape is incorrect, it has a lot to do with relativity. (Eienstein...two different observers can look at the same event from two different perspectives and see that event differently). Someone does not have to be wrong here.

Respectfully...just observing,

SOTG
Al Fulchino
(04/03/2001; 10:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51338)
ET and Randy
Good job, good show.
IronHead
(04/03/2001; 11:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51339)
Rockgrabber and FredBear
Rockgrabber: Avoid "MainStreet Trading" - Jack (Ripoff) Roberts and company like the plague. They are the lowest form of scum and villany in the brokerage world - (and there are many). It's a bucket house chop shop maximus. Keep in mind that the arena you are contemplating is a sieve, gauranteed to drain the shekles from the unawares/newbies.
Good luck - you're gonna need a mountainfull. Gold - in hand, needs no luck or timing; it's always content. All above offered not so humbly from the hand of experience.

FredBear: So, would you shoot the satelite, the computer, or the cell phone?

Salutations,
IronHead
Belgian
(04/03/2001; 11:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51340)
@ HBM
I do admire your courage and consequence with your 75% physical Gold-Holding. Not foolish at all, Sir !

There is not one (repeat one) single argument, *"against"* holding physical Gold - NOW- !
It is rather a pity that nobody is even trying to contradict.

A big smile from another...even greater...fool.
IronHead
(04/03/2001; 11:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51341)
HBM - Fools Abound
Hello Sir HBM - From another greater fool I know - me.

"Some of the better posts are those in which we pour out our souls" Amen; and over in the other part of the library (HOF), with the best that has ever been offered here, I find the quote, "by retaining control of our own wealth which truly does represent our freedom of life, property, privacy and even the right to defend that freedom. I dare not hope to be free without gold in my physical control."

My response to Sir Parsifal are similar thoughts, so aptly put, by your words.

Thank you for sharing your soul,
IronHead
FredBear
(04/03/2001; 12:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51342)
IronHead (04/03/01; 11:24:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51339)
IronHead, thanks for the warning on the bucket shops. Futures is a dangeous endevour that I have been in for about 4 years. So far, still alive, but I have my bruises.

As for what I would shoot, definitely the cell phone. I refuse to own one, and living in Europe, they are everywhere.

I hate living life in interrupt mode. This is what I called it when I was a computer consultant. I used to disconnect my phone when I was doing actual programming so I could concentrate. Voice mail was my savior.

Regards.
Old Yeller
(04/03/2001; 12:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51343)
Cobra(too),#51331

Hello,CB2

I.too,am puzzled and somewhat disheartened by this somewhat strange direction that FN has chosen.One important thing to bear in mind ,however,is management's commitment to shareholders to maximum upside to a rising gold price.

What does this development mean when viewed in this context?All we can do is speculate as to the motive.I don't pay much attention to Normandy because they hedge'so I not sure if they have the potential to do the "Ashanti".We do know that the Aussie producers as a group are in deep doo-doo,and the implications of another gold spike could produce a spectacular fireworks show.So, being that FN is very liquid(1 billion $C,the last I heard),perhaps they plan on delivering into Normandy's hedge position,thereby transforming the company into a Aussie powerhouse.Wouldn't that be a lovely scenario?

These guys are well regarded,they think methodically and in the long term.Looking back,the GOLD/FN merger would have been a huge winner if only SA could have appreciated what it would have meant to the big picture.I'm sure this deal is a positive,we'll have to wait to see their next move, before condemning them as another brick in the hedging wall.

On a side issue,maybe you could refresh my memory.Doesn't Cobra(too)have something to do with Bralorne?
ET
(04/03/2001; 12:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51344)
Al, Seeker
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/heinndx.html
Hey Al - how you been doin! Good to hear from you.

Hey Seeker - it's always nice to know that someone actually takes the time to read this stuff I write. Thanks! As Al could tell you, I take ideas very seriously. I've believed for nearly my entire life that good ideas are what foster civilization and bad ideas are what destroy it. In my opinion the idea of phony money is by far and away the most harmful idea of all. Given time, it will completely destroy any civilization that adopts it.

Mises, Rothbard, Rand, Bastiat, Hayek and others have been instrumental in forming my views. More contemporary writers such as Paul Hein have written some of the best commentary out there. We are blessed to have many fine thinkers here at the forum and I hesitate to mention any for fear of leaving out many but I do believe ORO has offered some of the finest political/economic thought I've read in years. I continue to look forward to "The Book".

At any rate, thanks for the kind words. If you haven't read Paul Hein, his commentary is available at the above link.
Old Yeller
(04/03/2001; 12:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51345)
Reversal of fortune

Wow,dollar is getting roasted.USDX;115.9-1.60,Euro;89.56+1.52,gold lease rates jumping up again.

Safe haven tsunami may be changing course.She's breaking up,Cap'n,can't keep her aloft much longer.
JMB
(04/03/2001; 13:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51346)
Gold sure is cheap, imo.
Considering everything going on in the world at the moment, e.g. stocks, the buck, energy, PANDA's friends, a whole bunch of suspect debt, and now even Mr. Parry of the S.F. Fed saying the grasshoppers are in trouble, you just have to tip your hat to the gold cabal if they can keep the lid on gold.

I really think our time has come.....well, soon....I hope.

CoBra(too)
(04/03/2001; 13:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51347)
@ Old Yeller Re: FN and BPN
Sir, I sure envy your memory capacity and I don't even remember to have given away the mean meaning of my handle.

OY, thanks for responding and as I try to accumulate unencumbered gold in the ground, I've been taken aback by
the FN deal.. again without knowing the ultimate wisdom of so well regarded guys.

PS: And yes you're right Bralorne Pioneer Gold Mines is a turn key, ready to go gold miner at total costs of about 220 - 30 $/oz and I am a director of the board since inception, as well as Coral Gold, next to PDG's Pipeline Deposit ... hence my handle ... Evermore no investment advice!

... and as some of the majors will feel the sting not only being unable to service their forwards, others highgrading and so diminishing their future - all of them will be hard pressed to replenish their reserves.

PPS: There still are some juniors, which may never be destroyed - since they're too valuable as to their function of risking capital and finding vast deposits the majors beaurocratc systems will forever miss.

... and here we are - the majors sent their exploration teams to the pasture (mostly because they didn't mean a bean)and now the industry has to consolidate and commiserate - though they still don't know, who's goin' to gleam in this "new paradigm" ... tough enough - so go and show the industry, that there are a few world class deposits left ... for their theft?

- OY, you got one or two - good for you - cb2
Seeker of the Grail
(04/03/2001; 13:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51348)
ET
Thanks for the link, more info for my cup. Will it ever get full? I doubt it. Thanks again I just hope I can understand the wisdoms but I'm learning or atleast trying hard.

SOTG
Belgian
(04/03/2001; 14:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51349)
Gold Manifesto
The unwinding process of " ALL" Hyper priced paper, is in progress.
The psychological impact will bring change. Change in attitude towards value. Once, the illusionarry wealth is clearly understood...all naked eys, will see, the sickening undervaluation of essentials. The majority of investors will be confronted with Decimations and Defaults. An excellent atmosphere and timing to start talking, publicly, about...Gold . Thanks to FOA and Another, the 30 year history of Gold and its past price-valuation can be, plausibly, explained. The past global expansion will be analysed. And a new born and therefore attractive currency
is making its entry into the arena.

China, Russia, India, and the Middle East, are postulating to participate in the next global expansion. All of them are strongly Gold-related. They don't need the geniality of FOA lectures. They have gold already under their skin for quite a while. It was us, who needed to be reminded about Gold. These new global participants might change their previous dollar-affection for the goldplated Euro. Up until now, I couldn't find any argument to contradict FOA his theory.
Right or wrong...the theory, seems to materialize, piece by piece. China's opening for goldtrade. Russia's quick respons to Goldactivism. And above all, the M.E. force who has already started to adjust the dollar-price to its oil.
Europ keeps on stressing on currency-stability and has therefore chosen the gold-backing. And post crash considerations and analysis, will admit, that speculative paper circusses are doomed anyway. ALL arguments are in place for Gold to participate in the coming change. And change there will be. Each burned woodland re-appears with changed vegetation and wildlife.

If we have to make choices within this perspective...GOLD stands in pole position. The anti christ of speculation !

Future perceptions of value will be less offer/demand oriented. Essentials will be valued in relation to each other. Total volume of Gold will be valued at a reciproque of total tangible economy and its progress. There will be less place for continious depreciation, through paperization. Inflation and Deflation will only indicate, brief moments of change in speed of global expansion.
I hope, the present unfolding Drama will get the chance to go deep enough as to trigger that fundamental change-process. Breaking hyperboles is as good as axing green wood.
That's why I am prudently confident, it will happen now.

Intuitive, we all point to the global dragon Dollar.
He is the one who can make things happen. He is the one who has been protected for so long. Do we have a good reason why his time to go has come. The Euro battering and POO revaluation ? The mysterious reschufflings of Gold ?
SM hyperboles ? Decadent Derivatives replacing economy of tangibles ? Eternal unproductive Debts spirals ?
Totally unrealistic welfare and social decay ? ...who knows, but IM tr�s HO...a bit too much confluence of negatives. No doomsday but radical change !
IronHead
(04/03/2001; 15:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51350)
Trail Guide - Proverbs
Hello Sir FOA, from the trenches.

Ancient proverbs say wise and compassionate general never strays too far from sight or sound of loyal troops.

Any word from the front? All quiet on the Western; perhaps not?

Salutations,
IronHead
Journeyman
(04/03/2001; 15:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51351)
Seeking advice @Sir Parsifal

Hi Sir Parsifal!

Considering such as the following:

Trading in the stock of internet service provider PSINet has been
halted on news that it will run out of money soon and has no
borrowing prospects. As a result, PSINet has postponed official
release of it's income and profit projections, and the stock,
which traded at a high of approximately $35, was halted at $.17.
-CNBC, April 3, 2001, 2:35PM EST [A 99.5% loss - - - IF you could
still sell at $,17.]

Lucent Technologies is trading down at $7.74 from a high of $83.
-CNBC, April 3, 2001, 3:39PM EST [This is a loss of about 91%.]

CISCO stock has lost $458 billion in market capitalization since
it's top at about $80 per share. -CNBC, March 28, 2001, 9:43AM
EST

CISCO the tech darling, is now selling at $13.80, a new 52 week
low. -CNBC, April 3, 2001, 3:22PM EST

CISCO has lost 81% of it's value over the past year. -CNBC, April
3, 2001, 4:21PM EST

The NASDAQ has lost $4 trillion in market capitalization, and is
down 66.9% from it's high. -CNBC, April 3, 2001, 4:21PM EST

"Official" Bureau of Labor Statistics figures suggest that
dollars are depreciating at the rate of about 3% per year and
there is a huge supply of them, in the case of paper dollars
estimated at between sixty to eighty percent, in foreign hands.

So, Sir Parsifal, given that by objective standards, gold is now
selling _below_ it's $270/oz cost of producion, where would you
suggest I put my wealth?

Perhaps a little context will help us all sleep a bit better!

Regards,
Journeyman
IronHead
(04/03/2001; 16:18:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51352)
Journeyman - Confused RE: your #51351
Hello Sir Journeyman - Not being the sharpest tack in the bag regarding the stock market; are these examples of the illustrious "stock splits" that were all the rage over the last few years? Seems a perfect inverse corollary in affect...only quicker.

Really enjoyed your new horseman and make that other number 30 mil. and 1.

Salutations,
IronHead
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 16:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51353)
Good press again
I'm reading while listening to the peoples' stock TV channel. Market watch just mentioned that the best sector of the day is the precious metals mining sector. Good move up today and probably the only "up" sector. Also, IBD newspaper lists the different sectors every day along with their year-to-date gain or loss. Mining stocks were, until about a week ago, the only positive ytd sector. Another quick daily update is the commodities report (usually just before the hour) on CNBC. The very last index given is the XAU or preious metals mining index.
Good hat trick day today with POG, XAU and lease rates all up. This helps after yesterday when, I believe, all were down.
CNBC also showed a cart full of gold bricks being wheeled around when they mentioned the mining sector.
Yesterday Ron Insana mentioning gold as a safe haven. Today the mining sector getting some recognition. Perhaps some investment interest will be generated. The right word from someone might be all it takes. I watched the frozen concentrate futures lock "limit up" for three days a few years ago after someone overheard a remark from Judith Ganes (O.J. analyst). She was overheard talking while eating lunch! Who knows??
Rich
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 16:38:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51354)
ET
I too have been burning up brain cells following you and Randy. Much appreciated, thanks to both of you.
ET said, "..it's always nice to know someone actually takes the time to read this stuff I write." I suspect that most of us would be amazed at how many are reading. A while ago I inquired "how many" of our host. Without having to justify advertising costs to perspective clients, there is no need to keep a running tally as is done at the G-E castle but I suspect the number of daily, weekly, ytd or total visiters here is considerable. Best of all, it's free. Thanks!
Rich
BILLYG
(04/03/2001; 18:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51355)
Gold Stock
I have been holding NEM (converted from BMG buy out) for a year, HM for a month. Both I am about even. I have a few more investment dollars and looking for a low price (under 3) stock to buy. With all ths knowledge on this message boards I was wondering if anyone has any ideas? I am encouraged that the stocks are holding up from the lows with metal hitting new lows.
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 19:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51356)
Now?
If we assume that the dollar prices of gold and silver are going to rise which most here do and we assume that it will happen when certain things transpire which most of us do, then I'm thinking that an awful lot of those things we've discussed for so long are now really, actually happening. I hate describing things as "things" as I was taught that "thing" is a most nondescriptive noun but I don't want to rehash all the things refered to that I believe may now be happening.
Point is, if even half of the conclusions we've reached concerning the whos, whats, whens and whys of a much higher (explosive?) POG are correct, then IMHO it should be damn near time! All the topics covered in all the horseman contests, all the financial scenarios covering currencies, Fed, policy, equities' market behavior, herd mentality, stock and debt bubbles, manias and their aftermath etc.
Does anyone else have the feeling that this can not long continue without a response or some serious rethinking of a whole lot of our suppositions?
No, I'm not second guessing. I believe it will happen. I'm saying that I think it is happening with an ever growing velocity. Will another intermeeting rate cut intervene. Could even that stop it now? What thoughts?
Rich
JMB
(04/03/2001; 19:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51357)
BILLYG
DROOY
Journeyman
(04/03/2001; 19:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51358)
60 MINUTES 2 & the Enlightened Taxpayers @ALL

Hi ALL!

60 MINUTES 2, beginning at 9:00PM EST, the second segment I think, will be covering We The People and others, including employers who are no longer withholding from their employees.

Regards,
Journeyman
Tree in the Forest
(04/03/2001; 19:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51359)
Parsifal
I find your arguments for not holding gold compelling. You are correct. But now consider my track record:

In June of 1997 I was told by a man who I met at an investment seminar that the market would crash by the end of the year. He explained to me how many millionaires he had made over his lifetime and how he knew what was going to happen and how many wealthy people trusted him. He said to me, "Trust me!" I did. I invested in gold (futures at that time). I lost money.
I was told in 1998 by a well known guru with a PhD. that the derivative situation would bring down the market in October 1998. He trotted out a message from his dead father who had made a fortune in the '29 crash. It was one of those, "if you're reading this, I must be dead now" messages that really makes you think that what you are hearing is gospel. I invested. I lost money.
By 1999 the chant was Y2K with all of the gurus, hype etc. You know the story. I invested. I lost money.
By 2000 it was the election story. First it was, "They'll have to bring it down before the election so Gore will lose." I invested. I lost money.
Then it was "It'll have to happen right after the election so Bush can blame it on Clinton". I invested. I lost money.
Even investing in "physical", and I'll put it this way, it wasn't worth more in dollars.
The only thing I can say my friend is that I will hang onto this PM "thing" like a pitbull. Stubborn and stupid though I may look (and my family thinks I'm out of contact with reality when I know full well that it is they who are out of contact with reality). And furthermore I will shamelessly admit error and shamelessly alter my predictions again, and again and again a hundred times or a thousand times or however many times it takes until I am finally right for as long as they let me post on this board, if necessary UNTO DEATH!!
I have quoted him before and I will quote him again now, one of our greatest presidents, read it and believe it!

"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
Calvin Coolidge

PS: As soon as I have straightened out the contract inconsistencies in the Comex silver contract spreadsheet I am working on, I will post some new predictions and a response to Carl H's comunique with Ted Butler.

PPS: HBM, you are the smart one!
Ten Bears
(04/03/2001; 19:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51360)
Dollar, Fed, Share Mkt., & GOLD
Greetings Knights & Ladies:
Thank you for many enlightening posts over the past several years at this most excellent forum.
A summary of a few of many points of wisdom you as a group have shared; as well as a speculation or two follows, in this my first post.
A.The US dollar is a unit of control over resources, both human & natural. It also serves as a ration coupon for the masses. The supply of dollars has rapidly increased since the early 1970's, and has accelerated since 1995. Purchasing power for more than 80% of US citizens has declined, partially due to inflation. Simultaneously, US share prices have exploded upwards. A chart of broad money supply tracks the S&P 500 from 1995 to 2000.
B. Why has the Fed, the holders of the most lucrative franchise in the history of the world, allowed the asset bubble and how have they so far been able to prevent hyper-inflation in markets other than assets? As to the why; the inherent nature of the credit money system requires an increasing supply to pay back the money creators (the original amount plus an interest increment). Otherwise, defaults occur and destroy a portion of the supply. Over the past 12 years the Fed has expanded money supply with a series of bailouts for their cohorts(Goldman Sachs Mexico loans, RTC for savings & loans, Morgan & Goldman's Russian loans,LTCM, & so forth). Members of the banking community were spared writing off bad debts and the money supply boomed. Not coincidentally the percentage of total income tax revenues required to pay interest on US govt. debt had reached critical levels by the mid 1990's. Through the sciences of mass psychology, statistical analyses, and computer modeling the huge money supply increase was used to influence share markets and to suck in unsophisticated investors. (Remember the trader's advice: Most people buy shares because they have gone up;shares do not go up because most people buy.) The resulting boom generated increases in tax revenue due to increased money supply and velocity. Currently, longterm government debt is being retired.
C. How has hyper-inflation been restricted primarily to share and real estate markets? and not allowed to surface in the general consumer price level?
(1) The true consumer price level increase is currently closer to 10% per year than the official figures. To quote Mark Twain, about "lies, damn lies, and statistics" is accurate when applied to the USDOL BLS.
(2) The US trade policies have allowed the importation of consumer price deflation from developing countries with low labor and environmental protection costs. Without low cost Latin American and Asian labor, US consumer prices would have more closely tracked share prices.
(3) Gold and commodity prices have been held down primarily through futures, options, and other derivative schemes. Farmers and miners are going broke while the prices of their products are controlled by leveraged paper instruments.
(4) The US dollar, relative to other currencies, has been held up by carry trades in Yen and Gold,and by strategically timed purchases of dollars and dollar instruments with Gold(BOE auctions, Swiss auctions, etc.)
(5) Oil prices have been held down by holding gold down. The Arabs will not take dollars in payment for oil at gold prices above $ (X) (perhaps $420 per oz.)
Speculation as to what comes next: To those with the money franchise, the number of tax paying units in the "Baby Boom Generation" is about to become a liability as they retire and cease to pay tribute in the form of income taxes. A 70 to 90% decline in 401K accounts wil keep the "boomers" working longer and paying those taxes longer(a front page article in the Dallas Morning News on April 2nd, says as much). Or perhaps the markets will be propped up with yet more money supply increases, and the boomers will have to work longer and pay for $3.00 per gal. gasoline and $.20 per KWH electricity.
I hope I am wrong, but the excesses of the '90's appear to be an engineered catastrophe in the making, with both the Fed and the SEC involved.
Ten Bears
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 19:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51361)
BillyG
I believe both Harmony and Newmont are good, solid, unhedged mining companies that will do well when the price of gold rises. Since you have them, why not consider owning some of the metals (gold or the poor man's gold-silver).
Just so happens they can be purchased here from our host, Centennial Metals. Or, if gambling is in your blood, you might consider the futures markets but do not, repeat do not, place money there without fully understanding how it works. This is offered as educational food for thought- not as investment advice!!
Buy physical metal=investment
Futures markets=gambling
Rich
Econoclast
(04/03/2001; 19:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51362)
Truth is stranger than fiction/Someone is still holding cards up their sleeve
There are certain characteristics, I would guess, that we (at this forum) all have in common. We all have open minds, we are all slightly cynical; we have a tendency to doubt the motives of those in authority, and as a group, we are more adept than average at recognizing dis-information and propaganda.

As gold holders/investors, we are very unique thinkers. Currently, less than 1 in 1000 people think like we do.

We are a product of our genes in combination with our environment. The environment that we (generally) have lived and developed in, is twentieth century US of A. We are part of a small group of humanity, and a time in history, who have been afforded the luxury of being able to not only think of concepts such as freedom, and the supreme rights of the individual, but to actually get a glimpse of a world where such concepts reign supreme. For whatever reasons, it is my belief that we are all witnessing the slow erosion of the liberty and sovereignty of the individual that we were promised as part of our birthrights of being Americans.

To all of us here, the economic freedom and political sovereignty we all crave as thoughtful individuals, is represented by GOLD, and perhaps even a return to an honest money system based on a commodity, a role which gold has filled quite nicely in the past.

My own fascination (some in my family call it an obsession, although those same people wish they would've gotten out of the stock markets when I told them to) with gold was a seed that was always with me (back to genetics again?). That seed was cultivated by my environment growing up. From the first time I saw it, I wanted my dad's five dollar gold piece from the mid 1800's. My grandpa (now passed away-never got to ask him about his fascination) used to take me out to the streams around his house where we would pan for gold. We never really found anything, but could there be a better way for a six year old to spend the day? Growing up in California in many other ways exposed me to the history of gold, since it was such an important part of California history ( I wonder if it's the same for kids now?).

My point is that I have always been drawn to gold. It is something innate and intangible. Even before I grew up and came to understand the true nature of money, and the truth and freedom inherent in the shiny yellow, I was always a rebel, but always felt I could be, because I said the pledge of allegiance every morning and believed in its principles and our country. I took my freedom for granted.

I was a teenager in 1980. I remember following the dollar price rise of gold and wishing I had some. But where does a teen get those kinds of dollars? Then I watched the price retreat over the next few years. It settled back above $300 and I still wanted some. It never seemed to actually hit 300 though, at least not when I was paying attention. In my mind, that number gradually became some kind of barometer of the price. When it came down closer to 300 I would want some but didn't have the extra dollars to convert (or more likely, I had the wrong priorities).

Fast forward to the late 90's. I have learned the reality of the world. I see that the freedom I took for granted when I was a kid is being whittled away by either conscious or unconscious forces. I have learned of the fraud inherent in our fiat money system and the government/banking/corporate nexus that it supports and makes bloated and corrupt. I have become exposed and educated to the whole global new world order conspiracy thing. Whether it is real or not, whether gold is being sat on or not, today, now that I am older and have access to dollars occasionally, that can be earmarked for conversion to that timeless wealth known as gold, I can buy it for a dollar price that I would've considered absurdly cheap even 25 years ago. This truly is the opportunity of a lifetime for me. I have waited thirty-something years for this chance to accumulate my own little chunk of real wealth. I have a feeling that this is the one chance I'll get to accumulate during my lifetime and I only wish that I had more dollars to convert for as long as this fire sale lasts.

Do I think this gold market is manipulated? Let me say this, even though it has been usurped as a transactional currency for use by the little people (us), it most definitely IS money. Central Banks throughout the world are not holding vaults full of pork bellies. Since it is money, its manipulation must be taken for granted. But who and why? What is the ultimate goal and what will be the ultimate outcome? Have you ever heard the saying "truth is stranger than fiction"? I really get the feeling that the saying will reaffirm itself in this case. Although some of the pieces of the puzzle might be the theorized culprits who may have their own motivations or parts to play, I feel that the truth of the gold market (and dollar price) is not so plain to see. We would all do well to keep our minds open and try to shine a light into all the dark corners of our own belief systems as well as the dark places where the minions of fiat money and global tyranny hide.

I am an eternal optimist. I also am an American who loves both the "land of the free", and the principles that our government was founded upon. I refuse to believe that those principles are either dated or dead. If I think and feel this way, someone else does also. If there is a new world order, there is also an order working against it. Otherwise it would already be here. Or something completely different is going on. The reality is that the world is a huge and complex place with many opposing forces. We would all be served by keeping open minds and trying to look at people and events with an innocent and non-judgmental perspective.

History is a great story, and remember, the truth is stranger than fiction. Until it is just history, we can not know what the true story is. I think this forum has, as a whole, a pretty good handle on a couple variations of similar belief systems. Is there a way to "push the envelope" and look beyond what we're trained to see? To open our minds and expand our horizons. Based on a lifetime of observation and evolution, I have the nagging feeling that this gold story just does not fit into the nice, neat package we've got it wrapped in.

Sorry for all the words. If you've read until here, I appreciate it, and hope that somewhere you found something you can relate to, or that gets your thought processes going. And while you can, keep loading up-things will change.


P.S. Ever since I have become disillusioned with the state of individual liberty and sovereignty in the USA, I have been searching for a winnable method of non-violent revolution. I believe the answer lies in exposing the fraud that is the IRS. If the truth reaches a critical mass of Americans who decide they're not going to do it anymore, again, things WILL change.

Thanks Journeyman, I'm looking forward to it.
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 19:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51363)
Ten Bears
I believe you have taken the conspiracy theory to an all new level with the idea of a planned financial meltdown to keep us from retiring. I thought they were going to be satisfied enough by paying our social security benefits in devalued dollars worth much less in value than the dollars we are forced to pay in over a lifetime. Honest money??
BTW- Good post!
Rich
R Powell
(04/03/2001; 19:50:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51364)
Mr. Tree
"...and my family thinks I'm out of touch with reality..."
You aren't by any chance, a goldbug??
Rich
megatron
(04/03/2001; 20:27:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51365)
CoBra
With the spectre of Cambior, Ashanti, and Nortel hanging over the market, I assume the men behind FN know full well the dangers of hedging from the stand point of investor driven class action suits. The motivation must be the inside knowledge that they will be able to unravel any potential time bombs discovered during due diligence. Other wise they were putting the barrel in thier mouth. I view this transaction of the KenSnyder mine for shares as a sign that gold is NOT going to rally significantly in the NEAR future. Obviously many FN owners felt the same, although maybe not for that reason alone. I am sure Casey will have something insiteful to opine about this.
Mythical
(04/03/2001; 21:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51366)
HillBilly Mitchell
Hello Everyone! I originally intended to send the following as an e-mail to HillBilly Mitchell, but after further thought, realized that it may be inapropriate in that manner. And besides, I think my modest "contributions" to Michael and Centennial warrants at least one humble post on this gracious forum.(smile) Anyway, here is the original message directed toward HBM...But please forgive me for any grammatical errors and anyone...please feel free to post your thoughts. I respect you all.

HillBilly Mitchell,

First let me apologize in advance for bothering you...I hope you don't mind. I don't normally take advantage of an e-mail address given out in confidence, but when you posted it, I selfishly considered responding to you because I sincerely enjoy your posts on the forum regarding Gold and especially your thoughts on the Bible and the Lord. I enjoy most of the posters that respond at USA Gold, but your style is most enjoyable (other than FOA/ TrailGuide) and I respect your opinion. OK, enough kissing up and on to my reason for e-mailing you... I (as probably many others do also) wonder what to think of this mysterious poster (FOA) and the very intruiging ideas he bestows on us "average thinkers." I have faithfully followed the forum ever since the enagmatic posts of Another graced the pages at Kitco and then USA Gold, and have digested every last post these individuals have offered, but I come away with the thought that what they offer up at times seems...a little too good to be true? I guess my good nature at times leaves me to believe things the others find gullible, but I must admit...I find FOA's posts "comforting" in a sense, considering the carnage that lies ahead. What do you make of FOA HillBilly? Looking at some of your previous posts, I get the impression you believe most of his scenario also do you not?
,,,,,,,,, Also, I get the impression that a few astute posters (Oro, ET, Elwood) are beginning to "move away" so to speak from FOA's ideas relating to the Euro, and where they're taking us. Then again, I could be just misinterpreting what Oro simply rattles of the top of his head-right? I guess I miss Steve H and his talented efforts at deciphering all that information so dummies like me can feel they have a purpose...and Aristotle with his eloquent posts that seemed to drive the overall message home. Where is Aristotle anyway? He just vanished. Sad.
,,,,,,,, Well, my rambling is getting endless...To the point HillyBilly- You posted some time ago that you needed to respond to Steve H and more importantly, Lady Leigh in regard to a certain passage in Revelations that mentioned gold and silver cast into the streets. Could you be so kind as to enlighten me on your thoughts to that particular subject? It would be greatly appreciated. Here is the quote:
"I owe you some lengthy response to your past thoughts concerning the link between oil and gold. I owe Lady Leigh some information from A.W. Pink and the Holy Word concerning the time when gold and silver will be cast into the streets. I owe ORO much response to his facts about the trees."
,,,,,,Well, I feel I've taken enough of your time, so I'll part with one last note: From someone who has probably 90% of his family's wealth tied up in physical gold, I certainly don't think of you as crazy. Just a little less crazy than myself friend!

Respectfully,
Michael
tg
(04/03/2001; 22:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51367)
(No Subject)
www.dailyreckoning.com*** Still, spending may not increase as hoped. The Houston Chronicle reports that a "Wait For Lower Price Syndrome" is developing. Consumers expect prices to fall. In deflation, people typically hold onto their money, rather than spend it. "If money no longer burns a hole in pockets," says the paper, "if we are all persuaded that the price of everything but yogurt will be lower next month, we're in a different economy."

*** Yes, one that is beginning to resemble the Japanese economy - where consumers are reluctant to spend and where borrowers don't want to take on extra debt, even if they can borrow at nearly zero interest.
Journeyman
(04/03/2001; 22:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51368)
"Taking on extra debt" @tg, ANYONE

Hi tg!

Your last post contained the following, excerpted from the link you included:

"Yes, one that is beginning to resemble the Japanese economy - where consumers are reluctant to spend and where borrowers don't want to take on extra debt, even if they can borrow at nearly zero interest."

This sounds almost like there's something selfish or unpatriotic about any borrower who doesn't want to take on EXTRA debt!

Could someone explain to me why anyone wants to take on debt of any kind under any circumstances if it can be avoided?

Or has McTeer-itis infected the whole world?

Regards,
Journeyman
megatron
(04/03/2001; 22:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51369)
Zero interest
My companions and I have talked at length recently about interest rates. One of the funny things to emerge in our conversations is that no one would presently think of taking on new debt, even at zero interest rates.When I broach the question of PM's they stare off into the distance, not willing to admit they no nothing about a subject. I guess it is what they say it is: zero interest = zero interest!
ax
(04/03/2001; 22:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51370)
LATEST NEWS ON CATALYTIC GOLD CONFERENCE

News from the Catalytic Gold Conference earlier today for new gold uses in
industry:

1. hydrogen fuel cells ---- clean power generation

2. catalyst to clean emissions from diesel powered vehicles

3. control pollution in office buildings

4. pharmaceutical application such as use in anti ovarian and testicular
cancer compounds

5. use in production of certain chemicals

Thats it for now.
Parsifal
(04/04/2001; 00:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51371)
So many responses!
Wow, I see several responses to Parsifal. I'll try to reply to each.

Randy msg# 51312: Would you want to hold a national currency if that nation's banking system was in trouble?

Me: Of course not. I'm certainly well protected, maybe too well protected.

Hill Billy Mitchell msg# 51321: You have presented a good picture of the emotional side of the gold dilemma as you question not only why we would choose gold over paper but how much and why when you say regarding the current movement of POG: [. . .]

Me: Yes, these days I am feeling more emotional than usual. The hundred or so ounces I am supposing is the "right" amount, I dunno, it just seems like it's about at the limit of what one can carry on foot in an attempt to flee physical danger. I don't find much of what you state that I disagree with; however, your mentioning that you have significant assets to protect but that your daughter and her husband do not have much in the way of assets to protect reminded me of a sad situation I wish to remark on. A retired, somewhat well-off couple I know withheld requested financial help from one of their adult children (who wanted help with buying a home). That couple has recently lost an amount of money in the stock market that could have purchased the home outright. I am reminded that if children are to be given financial help, they need to be given that help before they too become old. I think gold would make one of the very best gifts to children.

Journeyman msg# 51351: So, Sir Parsifal, given that by objective standards, gold is now selling _below_ it's $270/oz cost of producion, where would you suggest I put my wealth?

Me: Well, if you've pretty much got everything else you need, and you aren't looking for major involvements, such as with starting a business, etc., and if the amount you are looking to invest is equal to or less than $25,000, then buy gold. I think that is what I would do. If you are young (or if you feel young, in the sense that one "feels" lucky), then you might consider buying land and holding it for the long term, developing it, farming it, passing it on to your children, etc. For example, I am currently trying to decide how much energy I wish to expend investigating a 70-acre parcel that looks like it might be a pretty good deal. I could borrow the money and buy it, but then I'd be paying interest. I don't have the cash because I have the value stored as gold. So, I'm frustrated because to get the cash I must either sell gold at a loss or borrow. It's so much easier to always just buy gold and not be bothered with details. But let us not ignore the fact that the POG has been declining steadily. . . . well, that's the best I can do with investment advice.

Tree msg# 51359: As soon as I have straightened out the contract inconsistencies in the Comex silver contract spreadsheet I am working on, I will post some new predictions and a response to Carl H's comunique with Ted Butler.

Me: I thank you for your Comex silver reports. I look for them, and those reports are some of my favorite types of information. I have grown impatient waiting and watching while gold and silver prices drop. I've grown weary of theoretical speculation on currencies and economics. I appreciate factual data that, essentially, tells me what I want to hear, which would be that the paper markets are crashing. And that is where I and others are vulnerable. We tend to believe what we want to be true, even when credibility is lacking. We must always guard against self deception. Sorry about your investment difficulties. I have made some investment mistakes too. Those mistakes cost me much more in loss of respect from family and friends than those mistakes cost me in money. I have since earned more money than I lost, many times over, but those who warned against the failed endeavors as stupid and risky, and those who were especially hurt and disappointed by the losses, their respect never came back. Oh well.

Parsifal



View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(04/04/2001; 00:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51372)
RE: Seeker of the Grail msg. #51316

I think that we are on the same page. I say "interesting" as a more subtle way of saying the same thing. It is in reference to the ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in INTERESTING times." It appears that we may see the markets continue to be under pressure tomorrow. The so-called "Earnings season" is now being referred to as "Confession Season" as more bad news will be released over the next several days. Market futures are currently mixed tonight, however, anything can happen over the next few hours. So tomorrow could also be "interesting." My most recent issue of "News and Views" from the Castle finally caught up with me and as I read it and also from recent commentary by financial media, I sense a few more eyes cast toward the glowing yellow metal. Indeed, life could get "interesting." Cheers!

-Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/04/2001; 01:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51373)
Stocks Endure Brutal Session
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010403/business_markets_stocks_dc_424.html
Snippit:

``It's very difficult for research analysts or salesmen, or anybody else, to get up and pound the table and say, 'You have got to own stocks,''' said Ned Collins, a trader at Daiwa Securities America.

``People are wondering when there will be an earnings turnaround. It looks like we have more time and more pain before we find a level that people feel comfortable coming and spending a fair amount of money.''

Black Blade: As I said before - "interesting." I also heard Bob Pisana on CNBC that the shorts have no fear and they believe that there is a lot more downside.
Black Blade
(04/04/2001; 01:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51374)
Calif. gov to address state on energy crisis Thursday
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010403/n03489440.htmlSnippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif., April 3 (Reuters) - California Gov. Gray Davis will deliver ``a historic address'' on Thursday on his plans to solve the state's energy crisis, his office said on Tuesday. While officials say they hope that consumers will not be hit for more of the state's mounting power bill, industry analysts have suggested that more hikes could be possible if the situation is not resolved soon.

Black Blade: The situation is critical and now Kommissar Davis is forced to go public to convince the Grasshoppers. Only a couple of more months until the air-conditioners are fired up. Without hydroelectric power from the Northwest and low snowpack levels in the Sierra's, there are certain to be blackouts in the Peoples Republik of Kalifornia this summer. The sad fact is that they knew this day was coming for over a decade. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"
Black Blade
(04/04/2001; 01:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51375)
Rate Hikes Revive Calls for Seizure of Power Plants
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/latimes/20010403/lo/rate_hikes_revive_calls_for_seizure_of_power_plants_1.html

Snippit:

Private energy companies spent less than $3 billion to buy the power plants at the heart of California's electricity crisis. Those firms made record profits in the past year as their plants generated such high-priced electricity that the state has committed $14.7 billion toward buying power--burning through its budget surplus and authorizing record rate increases that again raised the question of whether it would be cheaper for California to simply seize the plants.

It would be a radical step, and one fraught with complicated legal issues, but even the normally cautious Gov. Gray Davis (news - web sites) broached the possibility of grabbing power plants during his annual State of the State speech. "If I have to use the power of eminent domain to prevent generators from driving consumers into the dark and utilities into bankruptcy, then that's what I will do," Davis said in January when he used the legal term for government's ability to seize private property.

Black Blade: Could the Kommissar be alluding to seizing private power plants when he gives his speech on Thursday? Socialism in Kalifornia? Go figure. Still, they would Have To purchase natural gas and out-of-state electricity and no one would sell it to Kalifornia should they take such a ridiculous step. Looks like blackouts are guaranteed this summer.
tg
(04/04/2001; 01:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51376)
(No Subject)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/ackerman040501.htmlAs Austrian-school economist Dr. Kurt Richebacher has taken pains to illustrate, however, his colleagues are entirely wrong in this assumption. In fact, it is quite clear from tables that he has reproduced in his March newsletter that, until year-end, inventory build-up was the major support for the economy, especially in manufacturing. What has slumped, notes Richebacher, is final sales -- which have crashed to around 2% from a heady 6% rate in 2000. What this portends, he says, is that regardless of how much stimulus the Fed tries to apply, consumers and corporate borrowers are unlikely to follow the script. "History has shown that there are times when factors other than the central bank play the governing role in the credit system, and we are furthermore sure that the present is such a time. Considering ravaged balance sheets of consumers and corporations, and drastically diminished profit and income expectations, the two have obvious reasons of their own to retrench their borrowing and spending."

Unlike 1990-91

Dr. Richebacher sees some key differences between now and 1990-91, when credit stimulus evidently worked to bring us out of recession. Back then, he notes, consumers saved 8.3% of their current income; today, savings growth is negative. Also, the trade deficit was running at less than $80 billion a decade ago, while today it is at $450 billion. And consumer debt has almost doubled, while business debt is up 70%. There are other differences noted by Dr. Richebacher, but one that he doesn't mention that I view as particularly troublesome is the role of mortgage borrowing in the current resuscitation effort. While anyone who reads the business pages will already know that money aggregates have skyrocketed since the beginning of the year, few could tell you where all the money has come from. As of February 25, the three-month annualized growth rate for M2 was 11.3%, and for M3, 13.2%. My colleague Michael Belkin, writing in the current issue of Strategic Investment (800 435-1528), traces this growth, not to expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, but to expansion of Fannie Mae's. "The money supply is not being goosed by the Fed," he notes, "but by Fannie Mae -- as if there is a tacit official agreement to use [a government-sponsored enterprise] as a Keynsian pump-priming mechanism."

Black Blade
(04/04/2001; 01:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51377)
US POWER-U.S. sees no quick fix for California energy woes
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010403/n02258702.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - As California temperatures creep higher and strain the electricity grid, the state can forget about looking to the federal government for help. Barring an unlikely change in philosophy on wholesale price controls in the West, the White House says it does not have a ``magic solution'' to prevent California blackouts this summer when air conditioner use soars.

``We don't have a generator in the basement of the Department of Energy where I can automatically send electricity, whether it's to California or any part of the country,'' Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham bluntly told television interviewers on Sunday.

Black Blade: BINGO! This is a problem that the whole US faces. This summer is only a preview of what we all may have to expect eventually unless a massive build up of power plants, infrastructure, and production of hydrocarbons begins immediately. The economy is toast! Unfortunately for George Dubya, he will have to contend with an untenable position as the US slips into recession (depression?). Better get some portfolio insurance (GOLD)while it's cheap. Golden Dreams All!
Topaz
(04/04/2001; 01:38:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51378)
CoBra et al.
http://www.normandy.com.au/contents/ABA030401.HTMThought you-all may be interested in the Franco deal from NDY's perspective.
You'll note the Chairman reports the Company is now leveraged for a Gold price upswing, luckily as their notional return pretty well represents current A$pog.
RBA reduced interest rates by 1/2% today and the A$ promptly ROSE on the news. What else??
The current upturn in Lease rates coupled with Global interest rate reductions must translate as "Roll-over/forward sales are yesterdays tactics" surely?
POG doing a runner as I type - $258.80 - There! that'll stop it!
Old Yeller
(04/04/2001; 01:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51379)
Japanese debt bomb
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=37763&threadid=37763
Ole Greenie likes to boast about how he would never get into a mess like the Japanese central bank fueled credit bubble bust.Well,he'd better be right,I'd hate to see conditions like these replicated in the land of the negative savings rate.
Topaz
(04/04/2001; 02:58:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51380)
Parsifal - Paper Gold
Howdy Sir P,
I think if CPM took a poll of Posters/Lurkers, we'd find the vast majority would fall squarely in line with your thoughts - Well done!

This Deflation/Paper Gold thing has me intrigued.
No matter which Fed button is pushed, it will always be up to the Good 'ol average Joe to decide when enough Debt is enough.
Based on the fractional reserve system, if Joe doesn't borrow Fred can't pay - and the pack-o-cards come tumbling down.
Now DE-flation is basically "too little money" - a situation that, under a Fiat system seems implausable however, to get that money "out-there", Joe has to, in some way, shape or form, borrow it.
I think Joe's done with borrowing for the time being and this "should" be very good for Gold. ( BOTH physical AND Paper)
WHY?
The one thing that defines deflation is "reality" meaning, the whimsical "products" pricing structure will be reduced to ashes and conversely the real items of life will be priced according to need - not necessarily dropping in price...and even increasing.
You may say, "you don't NEED Gold" and you'd be right...per se however, we WILL need a debt free asset to denominate our worth once a DEflationary mindset takes hold and Gold is a given in that regard.
This, as I stated "should" be good for all gold but as paper gold relies on the full faith and credit of "the usual suspects", I'm sticking to Physical!

The Invisible Hand
(04/04/2001; 03:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51381)
The Value of Gold
For yesterday's MK's market report:
"Quite often I believe the demand for gold comes more from an intuitive understanding of its value that goes beyond any economic considerations."
I liked this, thank you, Michael, for having stated the (not so?) obvious.
FredBear
(04/04/2001; 04:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51382)
Now Here's a Headline!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010404/l04205955.htmlGold glistens in Europe, palladium droops

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Palladium prices set nine-month lows on Wednesday as investors switched out of the metal and into its cheaper sister metal platinum, while gold was regaining recent losses.

Palladium fixed in the morning at $692.00 an ounce -- its lowest fix since July 14, 2000 -- while platinum was set at $582.00 an ounce.

The resulting price movements were pushing platinum closer to $600 an ounce while palladium dipped below $700 an ounce -- and analysts were expecting them to meet somewhere in the middle of the $100-range.

``The rendezvous will take place anywhere in between, so there is further potential gain for platinum. Looking forward, there is now a probability that palladium will get weaker in the $500-$550 area while platinum remains above that level,'' said one analyst.

Recent palladium weakness has also been attributed to signs that consumption of the metal used in autocatalysts may be weakening because of a global economic slowdown as carmakers look for cheaper alternatives.

``Palladium dipped below $700...with sentiment turning negative on car manufacturers' plans to reduce use of the metal and switch to lower-density coatings and platinum catalysts,'' said Lawrence Eagles, analyst at GNI Research.

Palladium set all-time highs in January, fixing at $1,094 amid growing jitters over exports from world number one supplier Russia.

At 0955 GMT spot palladium was at $685.00/$700.00 versus a New York close of $702.00/$717.00 and platinum was at $583.00/$588.00 from $573.00/$578.00.


GOLD FIRMS

After giving up most of Tuesday's gains in late New York business, gold firmed in early Wednesday European trade on the back of a wave of borrowing, market players said.

``The market had already garnered support from the dip in the U.S. dollar, and the blip in lease rates either suggests good physical demand or short covering by speculators,'' said Eagles.

One-month gold lease rates were last quoted around 3.4 percent, sharply higher than Monday's 1.6 percent.

``It seems the periods being traded are the one, two, six and 18 months mainly. On the back of this, it's difficult to be short on gold, although spot has not really taken advantage so far,'' said another dealer.

Further losses in world equity markets could see further gains in the euro, players said, but any more rises in gold's price will discourage buying from India where the bumper gold-buying wedding season is starting.

``Over the day ahead, tighter forwards should help support gold at these higher numbers,'' added the analyst.

At 0955 GMT spot gold was at $258.95/$259.45 versus Tuesday's New York close at $256.80/$257.30.

Silver was slightly higher on the back of gold and looking steady in the mid $4.30s. Spot metal was last higher at $4.33/$4.35 from the New York close at $4.30/$4.32.
FredBear
(04/04/2001; 04:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51383)
Is This Guy's Name For Real?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010403/n03459539_2.htmlFrom a paragraph below:
``When there is nowhere else for safety, go to gold,'' said Jake Dollarhide.

I think I might change from FredBear to SirDollarHide!

Gold and retail stocks manage gains as S&P 500 drops

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Just 44 stocks from the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^SPX - news) managed gains Tuesday as investors reacted to disappointing earnings and job cuts -- signs corporate profits would not return to health any time soon.

Gold stocks were the best performing issues, with the S&P Gold and Precious Metals (^SPGOLD - news) group gaining 5.4 percent. Discount retailers were also one of the few bright spots in a lackluster market, with the S&P Retail Discount stores (^SPRDIS - news) rising some 1.4 percent.

The gains came even as S&P 500 slumped 39.41, or 3.44 percent, to 1106.46, a 29-month low.

``When there is nowhere else for safety, go to gold,'' said Jake Dollarhide, a money manager with Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Fredric E. Russell Investment Management Co. which oversees $50 million in assets.

Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX - news) rose $0.63, or 4.6 percent, to $14.48, and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM - news) gained $1.08, or 7.1 percent, to $16.46.

Gold stocks, may also have been helped by U.S. tensions with China that began Sunday when a U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane collided with a Chinese jet fighter. China detained the U.S. crew after they made an emergency landing on the Chinese island of Hainan.

Gold is a traditional store of wealth in times of uncertainty, with some investors choosing to buy the shares of mining companies, rather than hold the metal itself.

The stand-off with China may also be prompting some of the sell-off in stocks, investors said.

``Deteriorating relationships with China are not good for U.S. companies who want to do business there,'' said Dollarhide.

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG - news), a discount store chain, rose $0.34, or 1.7 percent, to $20.65.

``If the economy continues to slow, discount retailers will have an easier time meeting earnings expectations,'' said Dollarhide, who oversees 150,000 shares of Dollar General.

``Discount retailers are not trying to sell a new phone system. Just toothpaste, laundry detergent and other basic, everyday needs.''

To be sure, even some technology stocks managed to eke out gains.

``Investors are desperately seeking value in technology stocks,'' said Dollarhide. ``They want to own them and are looking for stocks with a relatively low PE is getting picked up.''

Semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMAT - news), wich trades at 32 times 2001 earnings, according to Thomson Financial/First Call, rose 1/8, or 0.3 percent, to $40-1/8, while KLA-Tencor (NasdaqNM:KLAC - news), which trades at 30 times 2001 expected earnings, gained 10/16, or 1.6 percent, to $35-7/8.

That compares with Ciena Corp. (NasdaqNM:CIEN - news), an optical networking equipment maker, trades at 54 times 2001 earnings even after a 55 percent drop this year. It fell $6-12/16, or 16 percent, to $35-11/16 Tuesday.

Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/04/2001; 04:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51384)
Mythical @ # 51366
Sir

Thank you so much for your kind words. I cringed when you mentioned the backlog of work which I have ahead of me concerning SteveH, Leigh, and ORO.

Since you already have my e-mail address please forward yours to me with the Subject line "USAGOLD Handle - Mythical. I seem to get a lot of porno junk lately and tend to delete anything that I do not easily recognize. Then I can give you a short response with promise for more as time permits.

Very respectfully,

HBM
FredBear
(04/04/2001; 04:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51385)
'49er 10K Gold Piece from Shipwreck
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/010403/0202025369_2.htmlFirst ``Mammoth'' Gold Bar From S.S. Central America Shipwreck Treasure Acquired By Private Collector

INTERNET WIRE -- A private collector and investor from Massachusetts has secured the first of the massive assayer gold ingots released for sale from the S.S. Central America shipwreck treasure.
Only 13 gold "bricks" from the California Gold Rush weighing over 500 troy ounces even exist today. All existing specimens were recovered from the remains of the U.S. Mail Steamship S.S. Central America, lost at sea in 1857 when it was bound for New York carrying 2-1/2 tons of gold dust, nuggets, coins and assayer ingots from the California Gold Rush. No other large gold bars over 100 years old have survived. In fact, the largest specimen in the Smithsonian's collection of Assayer Ingots is relatively small, weighing just a few precious ounces.

The incredible gold ingot just acquired, weighing in at nearly 40 pounds, is the largest California Gold Rush relic in the hands of a private individual. As a numismatic treasure of bona-fide Early-Americana monetary gold, it is fondly referred to as the "10K Gold Piece" because the 1857 currency value stamped on the bar by the famous San Francisco assayers Kellogg & Humbert is $10,020.

In the days of the 1850s California Gold Rush, assayer offices like Kellogg & Humbert (rather than the U.S. Mint) would accept gold dust and nuggets from successful '49ers and then process and cast the gold into "unparted" gold ingots. (Unparted gold means that it was not completely refined and contained silver, which was highly prevalent in California's gold ore.)

After clipping two corners of the bar for their fee and assaying the purity of the gold, the assayers would stamp a U.S. Dollar value at the then-current gold fix of $20.67 per pure gold ounce. These blocks of monetary gold could then be used to settle domestic and international financial transactions.

The "10K Gold Piece" is 879 fine gold, meaning 87.9% pure gold, and is representative of the typical purity of raw California gold.

Although the "10K Gold Piece" was valued at $10,020 in 1857, its rare and historical value make it worth well over a half-million dollars today. Note that, as detailed on the shipofgoldinfo.com website, "The most renowned numismatic reference guide, the 'Red Book,' records the auction sale of a 2.5-ounce F. D. Kohler ingot (stamped with a $50 currency value) from the Garrett collection for $200,000 in 1980.

The "10K Gold Piece" transaction was handled by Monaco Financial, LLC, a leading rare coin dealer located in Newport Beach, Calif. A member of the Monex family of companies, with rare coin and precious metals bullion transactions in excess of $1 billion last year, Monaco Financial is the primary authorized dealer for the assayer ingots, coins and other precious metal treasure recovered from the S.S. Central America shipwreck.
SHIFTY
(04/04/2001; 05:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51386)
FredBear
Thats funny Sir Dollarhide !!Dollarhide / LOL

back to bed

$hifty
Canuck
(04/04/2001; 05:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51387)
China
Hangseng (sp?) down 505 last night, been taking a little drubbing recently.

Chinese turn to the ultimate store of value?
Canuck
(04/04/2001; 05:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51388)
Lying low these days
Picked up a copy of Adam Smith's "Paper Money" last week-end. What an awesome read. First chapter, on housing, the California boom. Second chapter on the USD, inflation and the inevitable death of the reserve currency. Chapter three, OPEC, the oil barrons and 'energy crisis'.

Will post the index soon.

Any suggested readings friends?

Canuck.
Topaz
(04/04/2001; 06:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51389)
Canuck
I trust what ail's you passes quickly mate.
Recently read "Goldfinder" by Keith Jessop - a life's work culminating in the recovery of $100 mil in Russian Gold from a sunken British cruiser.
All the good stuff - Gold, Guttersnipe partners, Cutting edge diving technology, intrigue.....took me 2 day's to read it....well worth the effort.
BH
(04/04/2001; 07:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51390)
ECB/Gold reserves
According to Bloomberg:
Gold assets fell 273 mln Euros to 118.464 billion Euros, due to a sale of 30 metric tons by a member central bank, the ECB also said. It did not say which member bank sold the gold.
FredBear
(04/04/2001; 10:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51391)
Canuck (4/4/2001; 5:42:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51388)
Canuck, how about

Economics of a Gold Standard, Skousen
What Has The Government Done To Our Money?, Rothbard
The Case Against The Fed, Rothbard

Smith had others also, SuperMoney and another that I forget. I read those back in the 80s.
schippi
(04/04/2001; 11:32:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51392)
Select Gold Hourly Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif FSAGX moving Up
FredBear
(04/04/2001; 12:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51393)
Where is everyone?
Is today a vacation day in goldland?

Is everyone panning somewhere?
justamereBear
(04/04/2001; 14:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51394)
(No Subject)

Yes, It does look like vacationland in goldville. Maybe we do need these food fights to get the rest of us stirred up or something?

j'Bear
grostig
(04/04/2001; 14:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51395)
Currencies Options Broker Wanted
I'm looking for an honest and patient full service options broker that deals with currencies regularly. I need help and education for purchasing call options on Swiss Francs and or Euros.

Go Physical Gold and Silver.
Mr Gresham
(04/04/2001; 15:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51396)
Hey Fred!
I've been playing with Dow puts (very small time) -- seeing other bears make bucks since the Fall has piqued my envy, and I figure I have my systemic "puts" shining up at me no matter what, decided to spread my financial efforts over a larger spectrum. Beats video games, MTV, and most of the Internet. Maybe I took whats-'is'name's --oh yeah Panda -- parting shots about making some money. (But I hate not keeping up with my reading here! HATE IT!)

OTH, we shall see after a time, won't we. Just trying to raise next month's mortgage and keep those shiny doubloons safe out of reach.

BTW, when it's quietest here is when things are about to burst. (Also, when Peter holds a backyard camp-out gathering -- that's a scientifically proven 100% fact! (grins...)
Tree in the Forest
(04/04/2001; 15:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51397)
Gold lease rates
Gold lease rates moving up again. 1 month now over 3%. This wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that there are now almost 900,000 oz. of gold being stopped in April on Comex would it? That's almost double last months deliveries with 500,000 oz. less gold in stock to play with. Stocks are down now to just 1.3 M oz. Hmmm.
Tree in the Forest
(04/04/2001; 15:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51398)
Correction
That should read 500,000 oz less in stock compared to February.
ax
(04/04/2001; 15:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51399)
INDUSTRIAL GOLD CONFERENCE - CAPE TOWN


The importance of this conference and research into industrial uses of gold prompts a repost. Further news
on the conference pending.

ax (04/03/01; 22:59:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51370)
LATEST NEWS ON CATALYTIC GOLD CONFERENCE
News from the Catalytic Gold Conference earlier today for new gold uses
in
industry:
1. hydrogen fuel cells ---- clean power generation
2. catalyst to clean emissions from diesel powered vehicles
3. control pollution in office buildings
4. pharmaceutical application such as use in anti ovarian and testicular
cancer compounds
5. use in production of certain chemicals
Thats it for now.

ax (04/02/01; 19:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51298)
INDUSTRIAL GOLD USE CONFERENCE TUESDAY
Keep your eye on the Catalytic Gold Conference commencing
in Cape Town tomorrow. Researchers are coming from all over the world.
Platinum and Palladium may soon have some
significant competition in specific areas of industrial
consumption.

R Powell
(04/04/2001; 15:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51400)
Second Hat Trick Day in a Row

POG up (but not enough)
XAU index up slightly more than 4 and 1/2%. Very good!
Lease rates up for the third day in a row and increased the backwardation somewhat. This also is very, very good.
Indicator of stock market's future?
Abbey Joe Cohen still giving the valuations indicate "good value" at these levels speech. Her delivery is flawless as is her appearance and camera poise. Her outlook/forecast is still positive for higher year end (year over year) S+P numbers.
My take on this- Ron Insana will be carrying his lamp looking for the bottom for a while longer.
A hat trick and more downside confirmation from Abbey. Very good, very good indeed.
Rich
R Powell
(04/04/2001; 16:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51401)
Mr. Gresham

Good luck with the Dow puts. I tried last year with the mini-S+P puts but couldn't time my entries and exits well enough.
Many I offer this from Gallacher's "Winner Take All",
"I also urge the reader to remember that winning in the market buys time as well as money, and that a winning style may, in a curious way, be connected with that understanding."
For what it's worth, I think you may have timed this well.
Rich
R Powell
(04/04/2001; 16:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51402)
Tice on the tube, CNBC

Coming up on Business Center tonight (6:30 EST) will be among others, David Tice of the Prudentbear Fund. This is good too, no?
ax
(04/04/2001; 16:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51403)
UPDATE- CATALYTIC GOLD CONFERENCE- CAPTOWN

Additional information from the Catalytic Gold Conference
on new industrial uses for gold from Capetown this week:

1. Apart from diesel engines, gold can be used as a catalyst in pollution control in gasoline engines as well.
Gold in this case would be used to complement platinum in the relatively cold temperature start up phase . After
the engine begins to run and higher temperatures ensue,
the platinum catalytic converter would kick in. The Gold
Catalytic Converter would operate at the lower or ambient
temperatures.

2. Room temperature use of a Gold Catalytic Converter would
allow the more efficient and effective purification of air in large office buildings hence reducing reliance on air
drawn in from the outside. This would save on heating bills
( very important these days) in the winter, and air conditioning electric bills ( also very important these days) in the summer.

R Powell
(04/04/2001; 16:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51404)
Correction
Tice on TV at 7:30 EST on CNBC. Sorry. I was reading, listening to CNBC and also listening to the greatest hits of Gene Pitney. Large overload for a small brain.
Gene Pitney? Remember Town without Pity, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valence, Only Love Can Break A Heart.
Maybe Tice will have a word about Gold!
Rich
R Powell
(04/04/2001; 18:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51405)
Gold's big three give their views
http:news.24.com/News24/Finance/Features/0,4186,2-8-133_1004282,00.html The big three refers to CEOs of three South Africian gold mining companies. One of these is Bernard Swanepoel of Harmony. Harmony was just mentioned by David Tice of Prudentbear. He was a guest on CNBC. I thought he was well prepared and spoke well.
BillyG- this should interest you as an owner of Harmony.
Soloman. Here's a link as requested. Hope I typed it correctly! Randy doesn't allow banana peels.
Rich
R Powell
(04/04/2001; 18:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51406)
(No Subject)
http://news.24.com/News24/Finance/Features/0,4186,2-8-133_1004282,00.html 2nd try
tg
(04/04/2001; 18:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51407)
Consumer Spending: The Next Disappointment
http://www.comstockfunds.com/Consumer Spending: The Next Disappointment
Consumer spending, the last hope of the optimists, will likely be the next bastion to fall. Since the start of this bear market about 12 months ago the bulls have leaned on one false hope after another, and, one by one, they have all come apart. First, they thought the dot-coms were invulnerable to the normal business cycle, and would grow onward and upward forever. When the dot-coms fell, the conventional wisdom held that the remainder of technology was too strong to be affected. Now that the technology arena has come apart at the seams, mainstream economists and strategists are saying that consumer spending will save the day. Given the negative status of other indicators closely associated with consumer spending, we doubt that this will be the case.
A number of factors indicate that the unemployment rate is about to embark upon a steep rise. Help-wanted ads have dropped to their lowest level since 1993. Temporary employment, as reported by the temp agencies, is plunging at a steep pace, and is at the weakest level in at least five years. Layoff announcements have soared to record numbers, while new claims for unemployment insurance are climbing rapidly. With all of this happening in the labor sector alone, we doubt that consumer spending can maintain its present pace.

In addition to the labor sector, a number of other factors are likely to drive consumer spending down. The savings rate is negative, and at the lowest point since the 1930s. In recent years consumers have relied upon the stock market to provide their savings, but this is no longer an alternative. Consumer debt as a share of GDP is a record 71%, a ratio almost 50% higher than it was about 20 years ago, while household debt as a percentage of personal income is also at a record. Debt problems are usually not apparent under conditions of full employment, but invariably become a big problem when people start getting laid off from work. Furthermore the decline in the stock market has peeled some $5 trillion off consumer net worth. In the last five years the correlation between the movement of the stock market and consumer spending has been near one hundred percent.

In our view, therefore, consumer spending in the months ahead is likely to prove extremely disappointing. This will feed back negatively into the rest of the economy, and deal investor confidence a lethal blow, driving stocks down to far lower levels.



Tree in the Forest
(04/04/2001; 19:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51408)
R Powell
I see you are a man of good taste. Gene Pitney's cool. Roy Orbison too. ; )
Tree in the Forest
(04/04/2001; 20:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51409)
Repost from Don_L & Comex metals
Most of you know Don Lindley who has done great work with Reg Howe and GATA. Here's a repost from GE:

(Don_L.)
Apr 04, 20:31
I heard a rumor this evening that the Bank of Lebanon turned down the chance to lease up to 185 tonnes of gold to the Bank of England, and that was the reason why the lease rates in London spiked up this morning.
Does anyone have any knowledge of this?
Physical gold is getting harder to find to support the "rollover of short positions", I supsect. I also suspect that each option and future cycle since December of 2000, has "bad gold paper" that has be rolled forward to now where it is all being squeezed into the June options and futures. If so we could have a very interesting gold market over the next 6 to 10 weeks.

Me: It may be that Comex will squeak thru this cycle in gold and silver but will not make it thru the next cycle i.e. May silver and June gold. Don_L seems to think along these lines. As I've mentioned previously, gold could go first with silver catching up later as silver will probably move faster. I was going to discuss this further when my data was ready but since I'm still waiting for a response from Comex, I'll mention it now. Based on what I'm seeing, LDD (last delivery day) is nothing more than a paper settlement day. Stoppers don't seem to be picking up their metal before LDD but after. It could be that LDD is immaterial. The default will only come when someone walks up to the window with their little paper warehouse receipt and says "give me my metal" and they haven't got it. It took most of March for Feb contract holders to get their gold or so it seemed. If that's true, a problem in May silver might not show until the end of June or beginning of July. And a problem in June gold may not show until July or August. One thing we do know, preparations by the military for war are afoot. That war is coming, is getting more and more obvious. So it can't be much longer now. The politicians will want to use the war as an excuse for what we all know must happen soon. The stock market is saying so also. Everything is pointing to a time of reckoning, perhaps by summer.
Old Yeller
(04/05/2001; 00:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51410)
CB2;interesting article on FN/Normandy deal
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256A2500014AEB?OpenDocument
Quote from the text;

"Should we be surprised to wake up one morning and dicover that Franco-Normandy is the most powerful name in gold."

Look out,Barrick and Anglogold,your warm and fuzzy little world may be getting a tad uncomfortable.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(04/05/2001; 00:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51411)
Fed Officials Warn Jobless Rate May Rise
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010404/business_economy_fed_dc_68.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday cautioned that even though the U.S. economy may skirt a recession, the unemployment rate was likely to move higher in coming months.

Black Blade: This could put a lot of pressure on consumer confidence. Watch for Friday's unemployment numbers.
Black Blade
(04/05/2001; 01:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51412)
Relentless Warnings Destabilize Stocks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010404/business_stocks_earnings_dc_6.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Just when Wall Street began to pick up its head after weeks of pummeling, Corporate America walloped it again this week with a fresh slew of earnings warnings, leaving the U.S. profit picture looking ever more dismal.

Black Blade: In fact a record 756 earnings warnings so far! A lot of downside left in the market as valuations are still historically high.
Black Blade
(04/05/2001; 01:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51413)
Lawmakers Address Calif. Energy Woes
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010404/pl/congress_energy_1.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - House Republicans are working on a plan to waive some clean air provisions and direct the use of more federal portable generators to ease California's summer power crunch. ``Price caps don't work,'' said Barton, although he told an energy conference Wednesday, ``We can't just say let California take care of California.''

Black Blade: Grasshoppers lay out plans to make raid on Ants! Look for energy costs to rise sharply in coming months. If price controls are attempted the problem will get worse as happened in 1973 which happened at the outset of a long painful recession.
IronHead
(04/05/2001; 01:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51414)
Canuck - Rable Rousing Reading RE: your #51388
www.usasurvival.orgHello Sir Canuck - From just a few miles south of the border, as the crow flies direct from Pendicton. Beautimous country up there, eh?

Although not pertaining to Canada specifically; the above link and the book "The New United Nations' Welfare Giveaway" by Cliff Kincaid paints a picture of America and Canada following lockstep towards a socialistic regime that any good Stalinist would be proud of.

The following are a few clips from the book. Possibly appearing off topic; I'll try to provide a lassoing synopsis.

pg. 27 << AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney, who is poised to exercise considerable influence over the next Congress, is another key advocate of foreign aid. He is also an identified member of the far-left Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), the principal U.S. affiliate of the Marxist Socialist International>>

pg. 42 <> IronHead - Think this cast of characters does not have some influence now? Jr. their boy, no?

Here is where gold and China starts to enter the scene - pg. 32 <> further: << Sweeney's proposed "new controls" over financial capital are the first step towards a global tax. In this context, New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman's proposal for a variation of a global tax to fund liberal initiatives requires explanation and comment. Bingaman, the head of a working group of Senators, prepared this proposal at the request of Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle. Bingaman of course, didn't call it a global tax,>> further:<< But his proposal did call for an "A- Fund," financed by a "securities transfer excise tax" (STET), to be enforced on an international basis by the G-7 industialized countries.>> further, {{here is where GOLD comes in}} <>

IronHead - Whether this legislation ever comes to fruition is anyone's guess, but the premise of the book is to show the concerted effort by the fallow creators to capture as much of "our" wealth, in effort to re-distribute it to "supposedly" third world nations. More like; third rate thieves lining backpockets, through the auspices of the U.N.

The "A-Fund" transfer tax was what really caught my interest, as it displayed the methodology of how a socialist system would plan an aquisition of individual as well as corporate wealth on a global basis.

Gold in hand today, outside the registration and confiscation schemes of the falsifiers, could be the ONLY avenue of financial freedom we have available.

What part of the North Country are you in, Sir Canuck?

Salutations,
IronHead

Topaz
(04/05/2001; 01:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51415)
Lease rate tracking higher
A visit to LBMA lease rate page (via CPM's link at the top of the page) reveal the 1 Mth rate is now 3.14%...and on a steady upswing.
The "Gos" is Lebanon CB declined to enter into a lease deal with BoE...hence the higher rate...Hmmmm!
When IS the next "real, physical, true-blue, 24kt, Good-delivery" Auction?
I'll bet the Chancellor is up night's practicing his "Yodelling" (...also an Ozzie coll. for "being sick!")
IronHead
(04/05/2001; 02:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51416)
IronHead - Retry of link
www.usasurvival.org/If it does not work now, something is fishy in the moat.
IronHead
(04/05/2001; 02:20:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51417)
IronHead - A Fallow Plot To Sabotage The Link
www.usasurvival.org/Type it into location header, it works fine.
Black Blade
(04/05/2001; 02:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51418)
Federal Judge Bans OPEC Controls
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010403/bs/opec_suit_1.html
Snippit:

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) - A federal judge ruling in a price-fixing lawsuit filed against OPEC by an Alabama service station barred the oil cartel from controlling Mideast crude-oil production. The judge then barred OPEC from doing virtually anything to set or enforce production quotas among member nations. ``It's a nice curiosity that has no practical meaning,'' said Jonathan Berck, who specializes in international law.

Black Blade: I would like to see how this judge will enforce the court order. Maybe he will ban the import of OPEC oil. Hmmm� We are going to have higher energy costs regardless. Golden Dreams All!
Canuck
(04/05/2001; 04:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51419)
Topaz, Fredbear, Ironhead
Thanks for the titles boys.

Adam Smith has Supermoney, The Money Game and Paper Money.

I'm in Ottawa Ironhead. I was in Kingston last week-end which is about 100 miles due south of Ottawa. Kingston, of course is on the St. Lawrence with Watertown, N.Y. (I believe) accross the river. Saturday afternoon while I stood on the north shore I waved at my American friends and yelled "What's with this dollar thing, eh?" (smile)

Not ill Topaz, just lying low. In the immortal words of Aristotle a year or so ago, "sit back, relax and watch the action." My goal of 100 oz. of gold and 1000 oz. of silver is now in view.

FOA, ORO and ARI are M.I.A.? Their lurkerness bothers me. I sense that they feel their mission is complete? Now covering tracks as the 'big one' hits?

Wild stories in the papers everyday; situation approaches critical, yes?

Have a golden day amigos.

Canuck
CoBra(too)
(04/05/2001; 04:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51420)
@ Old Yeller Re: FN/NDY
Thank you for posting this excellent article on Mining Web. Still, it may be prudent to again caution that Normandy's reserves are 60% hedged and if caught un the wrong foot it still may become a potential hazard.

Anyway, as I stated I do respect the managewrial prowess of Schulich and Lassonde, though I hope they're rigjht in this decision and still feel the SA Gov. has been extremely shortsighted to kill the FN/GOLD merger. A way superior fit I would have thought.

Regards and thank you cb2
LeSin
(04/05/2001; 05:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51421)
@ EURO & RUSSIA = Interesting Conference, Yes
http://russia.strana.ru/stories/2001/04/05/986467033/986466926.html

Russia is sizing up the European currency
05.04.01. 14:36

On April 5, Moscow is hosting Euro-2001 Conference devoted to the introduction of euro cash, which has been organized by Switzerland-based Sovereign Group with support from the Russian Bank Association, the Academy of People's Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, and the International Moscow Currency Exchange. The Conference is attended by prominent Russian and Western financiers, economists and bankers, as well as representatives of the Central Bank of Russia, the Finance Ministry, the State Duma, commercial banks, and foreign trade companies.

The introduction of euro cash is more than a topical matter for Russia. The problem is not only that all foreign economic settlements, for example, for railroad shipments, are in Swiss francs and soon it will be necessary to switch over to euros. The Conference discusses a range of problems, like what the introduction of euro cash will do to Russia's competitiveness; work in the EU capital market after the euro is in (state and corporate debts, stock, forward markets); legal regulation of euro-priced export-import operations; the fight against Swiss-based money laundering; the U.S. crisis and the euro-zone economy; forecasts for the euro exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and many others.

Even physical persons are showing an increased interest in the behavior of the European currency. Given the slowing down of the U.S. economy, the interest has become particularly pronounced during the recent crisis spiral in the world financial markets. The more so that starting from the next year Russian citizens will have an opportunity to buy euros.

The Moscow Conference is taking place against the background of an unstable euro. But for the Russian economy the slide in the exchange rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar may be regarded as a quite positive tendency. Russian exports are mostly priced in dollars while imports are predominantly euro-priced and therefore the drop in the euro rate has led to the real strengthening of the ruble. Many economists, as, for example, director of the Institute of the Transitional Economy, Yegor Gaidar, predict that within the next five years the euro rate will be $1-1.1 for a euro. Leaps from 80 to 130 cents for one euro are not excluded either.
SteveH
(04/05/2001; 06:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51422)
Dow Futures up big-time this morning
Seems some S&P futurists don't want to see the DOW hit the 20% decline-from-high mark and have pulled the stops to see that it doesn't happen. This is the second try for a fall below that mark. IMO
SHIFTY
(04/05/2001; 08:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51423)
Disgusted
But in it to the endIm really starting to get disgusted with all the manipulation. Not that I haven't been disgusted for the last few years. Im having a hard time watching rigged markets any more. Im afraid the new administration in Washington DC (district of criminals) is not much better than what we have had for the past eight years.

$hifty
SHIFTY
(04/05/2001; 08:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51424)
End Game
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/mcintosh040601.htmlFrom Gold Eagle by Doug McIntosh

6 April 2001

$hifty
Old Yeller
(04/05/2001; 09:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51425)
Peek into the future,what kind of money does the world really want?
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=38236&threadid=38230
Sooner or later,the people of the world will tire of this.In the meantime,let the games continue.
Old Yeller
(04/05/2001; 09:20:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51426)
Tough talk may be hazardous to your financial health
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/default-200145225718.htm
We have been discussing this topic for years.Does anybody have current figures on Chinese US dollar reserves?Last I can remember they stood at around 180 billion.

The Chinese don't have to listen to this,and they don't have to fire any bullets to win this war.

Thanks to woolybear at prubear forum for the link.
Journeyman
(04/05/2001; 09:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51427)
The MAIN reason? @Old Yeller, ALL
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/default-200145225718.htm
Sen. Robert C. Smith, New Hampshire Republican, said in an interview that the detention of the EP-3 [spy plane by China], if it continues, should prompt the administration to "approve the sale of Aegis systems . . . and P-3s" to Taiwan

And thanks to Old Yeller for the original link!

Regards,
j.
auspec
(04/05/2001; 11:17:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51428)
Reg Howe Review/Comments & Questions
http://www.goldensextant.comReg Howe Review/Comments & Questions



I have been combing through Reg Howe's 2-20-01 essay entitled "Hidden Faces Of Modern Imperialism: AngloGold, Barrick and the BIS", and find it fascinating as usual for Mr. Howe's work. A few comments are in order.
First AngloGold is 53% owned by Anglo American PLC, an international conglomerate that also controls De Beers. I wonder if these guys know anything about cartels?
Barrick Gold is controlled via Peter Munk and TrizecHahn Corp, an international real estate developer. We all know Barrick's staple has been its aggressive hedging, which is quite risky unless one is quite sure of a continued low POG.
"The overall profits of their parent companies, Anglo American and TrizecHahn, are far more dependent on continued strength in the G-10 economies than on higher gold prices." Reg goes on to finger the G-10 as the gold price manipulators: "...the G-10 central banks operating a price fixing scheme through the Bank for International settlements in an increasingly desperate war against gold." In 1994 the European Central Bank {ECB} was put on track to replace the BIS as the major European banking vehicle. So the BIS needed a new job description and found it as a more global financial entity, asking for 10 to 25 new non-European members. Alan Magoo, among others, stepped up to the plate.
Do I have the correct list of countries that are G-10 members: England, US, Canada, Japan, South Africa, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, New Zealand? Since this is supposedly a G-10 and BIS ploy, doesn't it strike one as a bit unusual that some of the same countries that signed the WA are some of the G-10 suppressors? In hindsight the WA seems a rather toothless event as it allowed for the continued leasing of gold as opposed to stopping it outright. It still seems unusual to me that there was NO COMMENT from the US in regards to the WA. No spin, no backlash, nada. They were obviously not taken by surprise and it was not entirely to their disliking. Then we see more gold enter the market than was allowed for when the POG spiked up in response to the
WA. Some "agreement". Obviously not too binding. I guess they do have the gold {for now} and get to make the rules.
Another thing that strikes one as rather strange {if indeed I have my facts right} is the presence of South Africa on the list of G-10's. Is S. Africa merely a British colony to this day? This would qualify for the perfect definition of an oligarchy. When Bill Murphy and GATA appeal to South Africa they may be making more of a frontal assault than an end run!
Reg Howe's article goes on to explain Peter Fisher's recent and probable current standing as a member of the all important "Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee of the G-10 central banks". Quite a guy that Petey. He'll clen up things for sure.
We next get into IMF entry into this scenario, which would be contra {more Contras} the wishes of the US Congress, another end run. We regularly read about "earmarked'" foreign gold leaving the US for firefighting duties abroad {I've always wanted to go to London}. Will quote Reg again...."My hunch is that much of this official outflow is IMF gold deposited with -- and loaned out by -- the BIS. I also suspect that part of the reason for the cumpulsory freeze-out by the BIS's private shareholders is to avoid publication of annual financial reports that might disclose some of this activity." If they are taking IMF gold to market it is hitting the market and not coming back. Otherwise they would have no need for continued withdrawals of this gold. So what do we have here but a couple of gigantic slush funds, IMF and BIS in the hands of those who control a few powerful countries? Accountable to few and able to advance an agenda quite nicely. It's the IMF, G-10, and BIS looking out for the weaker and developing countries. This is no ordinary resource/land grab!
What all this shows is the tremendous difficulty we are having in even defining WHO the enemies of gold are! Is Reg correct in this portrayal of G-10? Not too long ago the LBMA turnover was totally unknown. Many thought the BIS was a free gold advocate. Are the nations of the WA pro or anti free gold? What the hell is going on in South Africa? Their people might get a bit upset over all this. This is a war of Euro against dollar? Elitists and their agenda are not just limited to the G-10, right? Are the G-10 so committed to the dollar that they will sacrifice gold? Why would the G-10 run this gold cabal? Are all of there economies that tied to a low gold price {but S.A.}? As usual a few answers only brings more questions.
If these guys are nailed dumping IMF gold or US Treasury gold they are going to be in real trouble. They won't tolerate the light of day! The London Gold Pool was run in full daylight and failed miserably so they run this venture behind a thick smokescreen {but the winds are blowing}.
Any feedback as to this excellent Howe essay? It stands alone nicely but is difficult for me to integrate into other aspects of the gold manipulation. Thanks.
beesting
(04/05/2001; 11:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51429)
Austria Sells 30 Tonnes of Gold.
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7BC06F3F3D%2D6825%2D48D9%2D96E0%2DCA3BA2D4709C%7D&
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UPDATE 1-Austria sells 30 tonnes of gold reserves

4/5/2001 11:20:00 AM

(adds analyst comment, background detail throughout)

By Peter Nestler and Amanda Cooper

VIENNA/LONDON April 5 (Reuters) - The Austrian National Bank said on
Thursday it had sold 30 tonnes of gold, ending intense market speculation
about who was behind sales that came to light in European Central Bank
figures on Wednesday.

Rudolf Trink, head of the Austrian National Bank's Treasury Department, told
Reuters the sales brought to 60 tonnes the amount recently sold by the bank.

Trink declined to specify the timing of the sales. "The gold sale did not take
place yesterday and you have to bear in mind the possibility of futures
transactions," he said.

He said the bullion may have been sold in tranches, saying "different
maturities are possible in futures transactions."

The sales were announced as part of the 1999 Washington Accord, under
which 15 European central banks agreed to limit their gold sales and lending
to 400 tonnes a year and to a total of 2,000 tonnes over five years.

At the time, Austria said it planned to sell a total of 90 tonnes over the
five-year period.

"It had to be Austria by a process of elimination," said analyst Andy Smith of
Mitsui.

Given that the sales already planned for this fiscal year by four of the
signatories had exhausted the quota set by the accord, which was
spearheaded by ECB chief Wim Duisenburg, there was no further scope for a
new seller, Smith said.

"We've got 200 tonnes coming from the Swiss, another 135 tonnes from the
UK, which leaves 65 tonnes. Austria sold 30 tonnes in the last Duisenburg
year, which leaves 35 tonnes for the Netherlands, so there is no more room
for another name."

"This is a forward sale, which is fantastic. If everyone else in the market is
doing the same thing, it would be foolish to do otherwise," Mitsui's Smith
said.

"If the miners have hedge books, why should the central banks have any
qualms about playing the same game?"

The gold market has already absorbed 100 tonnes of gold from the
Netherlands since December 1999, the first tranche of a Dutch plan to sell
300 tonnes over the five years.

The Swiss National Bank is in the midst of selling 1,300 tonnes of excess
gold reserves, while the UK is over half way through a programme of regular
auctions to cut its holdings by around 395 tonnes.

The gold price is under constant pressure -- not just from central bank
disposals, but also from producer forward selling.

Britain's transparent auction method attracts criticism from the market as it
drives down the price, but the Bank of England has stook its ground and
refused to use another method.

Both the Swiss and the Austrians have used the Bank of International
Settlements in some of their sales.

The Swiss have now switched to selling on the market with institutional
partners, while the Austrians did not disclose what method they used.

Spot gold remained relatively untroubled, losing only narrow ground
to $257.90/258.40 a troy ounce in the wake of the annoucement from Vienna,
down from the afternoon fixing in London at $258.10.

Whether this sale by the Austrians will encourage other official players to
follow remains to be seen, but Smith said gold was unlikely to get any respite
from keen sellers.

"As far as I know, there are no gold miners signed up to the Duisenburg
accord, so yes, there will be other sellers. As long as the Duisenburg queue
remains orderly, then that will leave scope for others to be less orderly," he
said.
Old Yeller
(04/05/2001; 11:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51430)
Time for hydro-carbon man's springtime show?

I found this info in a story posted by Ted at the Kitco forum;Apr.5,9:07.Source is the Wall St. Journal.Sorry,no URL was posted.

Quotes from the text;

"gasoline stocks are at their lowest ever at the start of the second quarter or 193 million barrels under a year ago."

"Refineries have beem slow to emerge from maintenance.Refiners collectively are cutting it awfully close."

"first quarter demand set a record at 8.2 million barrels a day,while output and imports also hit their highest ever levels."

"although none expects a repeat of last year's sustained high prices,analysts say thin inventories do set the stage for price spikes during the summer driving season."

There seems to be some convulted logic here.The last statement in it's soothing tone seems rather incongruouswith the facts provided beforehand.It would appear to me that the situation for this year looks a lot more tenous than last year
Belgian
(04/05/2001; 12:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51431)
Currencies
About the Euro : Of course Europ has its particular weaknesses. But don't underestimate the pragmatism of apparent weak politicians.

- The Euro is new-born and therefore automatically attractive. It is for this reason that the dollar-offensive was the best defense to withdraw any attention for this new appealing currency.

- Europ and europeans in general have a very high savings-rate ! An excellent buffer for consumer economics.

- The Euro already exists 20 years now. As ECU before and the start with EGKS (European community for coal and steel)

- Europ is holding on to a non-conflict policy. This is in sharp contrast with US as world-ruler. China/ME/Russia, do feel much more comfortable with European consensus politics.

- Europ is preaching extreme tolerance and welfare pragmatism.

- Already 12 member states and some other are eagerly waiting to join.

I am not trying to say that the Euro/Europ is better/stronger/ or any other possible adjective. Just want to sum up, why the Euro, might serve as an alternative for the dollar, when time has come.
It is against this perspective that the valuation of 140.000 tons of Gold (and oil)must been seen. Neither Gold or oil are grossly valuated in function of pure offer and demand. Prices are the result of offer and demand.
Germany is hyper linked with Russian oil and gas. France is specialized in ME silent diplomacy. Small Europeans have long traditionnal (friendly) ties with China. New valuations and standards/anchors, might slowly appear against the overused dollar-monotony. Europ is avoiding China-incidents, Golf-Balkan wars. Maybe we are to weak to solve a conflict. But that's probably why they are going to like us...pourvu que sa dure (for as long as it lasts)
Consider the following:
: World oil-producers receive 0,625 trillion $/year in a currency that is carrying 5,6 trillion $ of state debts.
The fundamental difference with the debt on the Euro is that this debt is proportionally much less and carried internally through its savers. Dollar debt expanded outside the US. The interests are gone. In Europ the interests on debt serve an economic purpose by consumption and partly recuperated with high taxes on consumption.

The japanese currency-intervention warning today was significant. They don't want the boat to be rocked, or...
Goldminers stormed ahead, but lost it all just before the close. POG is weakening in Euro also. This, against a stronger POO ! The positive divergence of the mines, might point to a POG ($) double bottom. Dollar started to show some weakness (TA just in time) with diving SM, but countered temporarely with todays surge. Indeed, relax and...keep on accumulating the shiny.
Old Yeller
(04/05/2001; 12:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51432)
Auspec:#51428,beesting:#51428
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary13.html#anchor3944
Great posts,the plot thickens and surprise;down come the lease rates.I'm sure you both have read this commentary from Reg Howe,however, it gives a fine illustration of the schism within the ECB on this particular topic.Just what master are the Austrians serving here?

I always love reading the insightful comments from Andy Smith.May he go down in history as the Abbey Joseph Cohen of the gold analysts.
Topaz
(04/05/2001; 12:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51433)
Canuck
That's good to hear, (you not being ill)
The 100/1000 is where I'm at now and (lottery wins aside) have adopted a "watch the show" attitude also.
Curious to know...are you the Kitco "canuck" ??
Cavan Man
(04/05/2001; 12:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51434)
Hello FOA/Trail Guide
Sure would be nice to get an update from you. Events seem to run in the direction of your thoughts but it is still quite difficult to see the forest through the trees. Many tributaries feed the mainstream.
auspec
(04/05/2001; 12:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51435)
cb2
Austrian Gold SalesIt's time to use your influence, man!
Strad Master
(04/05/2001; 12:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51436)
Fascinating Scientific URL for Gold Lovers
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap010405.htmlFollow the above link to a fascinating explanation of how gold may have originated in the universe. It's always nice to have a chance to step back and look at the really big picture every now and then.

I don't get to post much these days but I want to let you all know that our newest little Strad is due in only 6 more weeks. I will keep all the Lords and Ladies of this esteemed round table informed...
Cavan Man
(04/05/2001; 13:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51437)
Belgian
There was a very interesting editorial in the FT yesterday concerning the Euro. According to the author, there is a tremendous amount of currency denominated in DM etc. that is the product of black market activities (16% of EU GDP!!!!) and/or stuffed in mattresses in Eastern Europe. When there in fact is a physical, Euro legal tender to be exchanged, the Euro should rise strongly if for not other reason than the exchange from one currency to another. FWIW
Belgian
(04/05/2001; 13:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51438)
@ Sir Auspec
Intuition tells me : there is no european hostility towards Gold. There is hostility against the Euro !
It seems as if poor old gold is standing between Dollar and Euro. Shizofrenic behaviour of POG is the result of total abstinention to VALUE POG : NOW ! But when these two dogs (dollar/euro) keep on fighting for the Golden bone...the bone never gets eaten. Again, who got the juicy goldbone meat that the Austrians sold ? Acid Andy...do you know it ?
The two fighting dogs aren't really hungry for the moment.They just want to have a good fight. They'll get hungry later and will find out that others have been hiding the bone. Isn't it rather amusing, Sir Auspec.
In the mean time, Big miners, are relatively relaxed with their proven underground reserves for the next 20 years. Why should they bother ? If I reconsider the reason why this little country Belgium (10 million cit.) has been selling (reschuffling) 1.000 tons out of 1.300...I understand why we were able to accumulate so much internal debt (120% GDP) without being left out of the EMU !
We are resasoning as good housefathers with some common sense. "They", just tingk totally different. Politicians and oligopolists have another set of brains and emotions.

There is a common reason for keeping POG at a very visible low price. We already concluded on that famous "mutual interest" (ORO). If one day we will know for sure "WHY", we might turn crazy. The Trail-people have been suggesting very intelligent reasons why things are as they are.
My intuition out of the circumstances, tells me, it all points to the dollar/euro, coming relationship. More than the G-10 members are involved in this coming change. And if we add oil as another bone into this fight...it becomes even more complicated.

And do the dollar/euro actors really know for sure the outcome of what they are planning ? No way ! Any accident can change the hidden course they have planned.

POG doesn't matter today for every party that is in the possesion of the Physical. Price or valuation of gold is not at all influenced by the normal/natural offer/demand equation. There is more than enough time left for the REAL valuation en following pricing of Physical Gold for its loyal holders. The dollar + euro + oil can wait for that ultimate moment of truth.

Since I am to stupid to unraffle geopolitics...I'll stick to some philosophical reflexions. Mixed with a large dosis of commen sense, endurance and faith.

Goldproducers keep on consolidating (FN.TO/NORM). They are concentrating their reserves for long term planning. Mine fragmentation must make place for power concentration. This is not going to change POG, but adding to a better pricing after the ultimate RE-VALUATION of Gold. Compare this with the evolution of OPEC. Gold and Oil, intentionally or not, are preparing to break free from the Dollar and probably the US in particular. They are both the most political tangibles, one can imagine. Are they running out of imagination as to how "recycling" a more and more obvious printed "DEBT" paper ? What to do with these worthless mountains of dollars ? They have been used to build that SM Ponzi pyramid. The pyramid is eroding, but oil and gold are still under the desert sand. The dollar pyramids have been travelling to stone-aged areas (china/russia/)...and started something growing. Europ wants its share of the future new global expansion. This ellbow-work is in progress. It is not the moment to worry about that little hill of shiny stuff lying there. It must be kept in the shadow for emotional reasons. They will use it one day !

Sir Auspec...did I succeed in bringing you some peace of mind or rather irrition with no answer 2 cents ?
canamami
(04/05/2001; 13:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51439)
Significance of SNB not using the BIS....
to sell its gold?

Could this corroborate Reg Howe's thesis that the BIS has joined the anti-gold camp?
Belgian
(04/05/2001; 14:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51440)
Cavan man
Indeed Sir, Europ is a very strange animal. A modern Dinosaur with a friendly face. An opportunistic melting pot with pragmatic individuals swimming in a welfare bath.
General flexibility is hidden under the matrasses and some other known places. What I wanted to communicate was the dynamic phase, the EMU is sliding into. While most of us were (are) still sceptic...reality is slowly materializing (235 days left).
Odds are on a pleasant positive outcome, dispite the mountains of obstacles (wall of worry). That's what's bothering Big Brother Dollar. Europ is banning "nationalism" (cfr. Balkan) and therefore able to act in a much more pragmatic way. EMU is not enforced. Everything is done to make it attractive and to invite for joining. We are not imposing a currency. Do you agree with this essential difference ? Even when everybody realises this can't be perfect anyway.

But all this EMU stuff does not mean "per se" that the dollar is going to be trashed ! IMO, he will have much more difficulties to hide its true nature. And once there is an alternative...people just try it. And that is no guarantee for succes. But the dollar will not use Gold anymore to hide its weakness. And the Euro, only has to suggest that it has something with gold. This could be the beginning of perception-change towards gold for the gold-investors. Not the gold-consumers !

And it remains to be seen if EMU is using or going to use the gold-cart as joker ? Are dollar-reserves going to be changed for gold or euro ? Is (or has) the gold-excess been shifted to the future friends and euro-adherents ? This is what is possibly happening already for 6 years now. Is the EMU reschuffeling its gold internally or allocating it to China/ME ? Russia has enough gold of its own. GATA might do some wake up calling on the Russian goldside. After all, don't forget the enormous energy resources, unexploited in Russia. One day they are going to use this to put their messy state in order. Interesting times ! I hope we can make it without war.
auspec
(04/05/2001; 14:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51441)
Sir Belgian
Thank you, Sir Belgian for your usual keen insights! In regards to your "Currencies" post #51431, it is a nice compare and contrast of Dollar and Euro. Excellent perspective. Youth must be served, no? Of all the relative weaknesses of the Euro, the one that stands out the most is what you mentioned in post #51438....."Intuition tells me: there is no european hostility towards Gold. There is hostility against the Euro!" This house is still divided, they will kick and scream "until the last minute of the last day" {to quote someone I'm trying to forget}. If I understand you right, some go along with the dollar factions in hopes of sabotaging the Euro? Yes, have heard of countries that don't want to lose their influence/advantage of their strong currencies.
All want oil in as much quantity and as cheap as possible, pricing oil in a particular currency is the grand prize! The paper gold market keeps gold cheap enough that oil interest feel they are able to receive long term value {shiny} for their dwindling resources. To this degree dollar entities benefit greatly and even the Euro countries benefit to a degree, but not as much as if oil were priced in Euros. So we arrive at a relative war on gold that basically ALL central banks have interest in, some much more than others.
Of course you are right that "More than the G-10 members are involved in this coming change." You can point two fingers squarely at the US and Britain as they have shown themselves to be the gold ringleaders, but all who are not for free gold are against it. So who is the "mastermind"-- US or Britain {*or those that pull strings for both?*}? Multiple conflicts of interest and interests in conflict arise. Players with a short attention span {give me my interest rate cut NOW}, and those with a long term inevitable frame of reference. The young Euro will patiently wait its time, while the Dollar thrashes its way along on life support. A central banker can hold gold in the vault or in the ground somewhere, both having lasting value {of course one is preferable}. In order of priority please deed me 1}Physical, 2}Reserves, 3} Resources; all will play their role in your "coming change". The desert sands will yield their fruit.

No, Sir Belgian, no irritation accompanied your posts, but a whiff of the lasting peace we await was clearly present. These issues are pretty big to try to "put in a box", and frustration is usually the result therein. Like I said: multiple conflicts of interest and interests in conflict. Thank you for playing 20 questions with me!
CoBra(too)
(04/05/2001; 14:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51442)
@ Auspec, Belgian and all
Just came back from a meeting concerning a golf course in my neighborhood - much more gratifying than the intricacies of global economies, markets and CNBC bottoms, whereby the latter may get a chance to kiss the bottoms of the mother of all bear market rallys - goodbye Joe Sixpack... hello WTO .-.
"

... and yes, I've been furious some time ago, when the Austrian CB announced the sale of 90 tons of gold, 60t's to the mint and 30 t's outright sale. Even thought it won't fit into WA. - Anyway I've missed the chance to talk to the CB governor - as I've had to decline a luncheon on sunday,
while my better half was sitting next to him - good for him ... as I'm still mad as hell, even if it's not red hot news it is infuriating, particularily the clamming up of every official, when mentioning the 4-letter word.

... As 'Sir Belgian' sees it much calmer in his quip of European's having no hostility against gold, only against the �, I'm starting to ask myself, do we really need Mr. Putin to make it work? and even if I see the logic in the end I'd feel compromised to no end.

... and CM your FT essay would have been something I would have loved to write, if I could write and/or have the intellect to put it together.

Humbly - cb2




Al Fulchino
(04/05/2001; 15:25:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51443)
Old Yeller/All...Speaking of Gasoline
Old Yeller (04/05/01; 11:47:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51430)


Just today a 3-5 cent nationwide increase by a major oil company to its retailers. Large by usual standards.
Aside from low stocks, all should keep in mind that Unocal has a patent of a reformulated gasoline ingredient that other oil companies do not want to pay a royalty to use. Additionally, some refiners do not want to get involved in producing the reformulated gasoline.

When you purchase your product or spend time agonizing over the rises in price, keep the Federal Government in mind. They are responsible for a significant portion costwise and only part of it is taxes. Oh and by the way, that goverment is you and me :)


Mr Gresham
(04/05/2001; 16:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51444)
Belgian
Thank you for your Euro-views and helping us think through the relations between international players. Your insights help me see the possible pathway through time to changes that FOA suggests, but which are beyond my seeing now. You calm much confusion, I believe.
CoBra(too)
(04/05/2001; 16:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51445)
On the other hand ... you have different fingers ...
and as our great gold friend Andy Smith is using the Austrian Gold sale as an excuse "while the producers sell forward, CB's don't want to stand back" or such similar junk as the things that come to those who wait are the things left over by those who got there first.
Pretty similar to the rubbish of the latest survey stating that 3 out of 4 people make up 75% of the global population... and 1/3 of all gold mined is still within the vaults of the CB's - whoa, there - maybe technical, though in form of gold IOU's from Chase JPM. Refuse, I hear, Oh no the new breed of CB greed started out with nothing tangible allowed - and they still have all of it. ....!? to wit ... cb2 laughs last and therefor thinks slowest ...
auspec
(04/05/2001; 16:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51446)
@ Old Yeller/Belgian/All
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary13.html#anchor3944thanks Old Yeller for this link and re-read. Who better to solve a quandry put forth by Reg Howe than............Reg Howe. It is an European Union but it is a disparate union at that. Will the ECB be the ONLY central bank as of next year? Then we will likely see their policies manifest more clearly.

On another entirely seperate note: I had a theoretical discussion with a friend a while back about possibly fighting {again} to save the "Union". I said I would more readily fight to save the Constitution than the Union, largely because our current state of the union is so pathetic. Our current Union threatens the very existence of the Constitution and I would rather those who don't respect the Constitution "go their way" than have the whole ship sink. What does this have to do with gold? Everything, that's what form of money our US Constitution calls for. Comments?? Whose allegiance do you pledge more closely, the Union or Constitution?
Belgian
(04/05/2001; 17:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51447)
The Austrian Tonnes
Bureaucrats who pretend to manage their citizens reserves.
To be compared with the Eurocrats. There is such an enormous amount of "OPPORTUNISM" that walks aside the evoluating EMU. The (FATAL) attraction of exposed WELFARE, that seems to grow relentlessly, is the key element, for the candidate EMU-joiners. It is not at all a sign of strenght, but isn't essential for the time being. In true modesty...you don't have any idea how high the general standard of living is for the average European. Spain and Portugal boomed literally after joining. The east-blockers are standing in line to come and work as ants in the EU.
The general athmosphere is one of well-being. (false or true). The EMU refusers (opportunists) have some specific reasons...agricultural (Denmark), fiscal (Swiss) etc...But they will align.
Even the UK will stop its anti-prop. one day. The Swiss might also have their anti europ reason (dark green money)...hey, they both sell gold ! Nahhh, they don't do it on purpose. You feel the stress...conflicts...opportunism...timing...difficult choices...

The US is putting fences on the Mexican border. Europ is seducing more and more states to join. And if they put their house in order they can join the heavenly welfare union, without having to cross fences. Is this approach going to work for enough time ? That is not a goldadvocate's problem. First things first and start with the unmasking of the evil dollar and his alliance with devil debt. It will take some time before the poles, hongarians or the greek also realise that welfare is also created out of thin air.

And now that we start to realise that the economic active world is going to expand substantially...it might be an explication why the excess amount of CB gold is re-distributed ? Yes, redistributed, rather than increased by the EMU junior joiners. They already have to take drastic measures to comply for EMU. So they couldn't be forced to align with CB gold reserves (premature POG-rise ?). Is that a possible reason for price-ranging the shiny ? Is that the reason why not one single buyer identity is allowed to be mentionned ? There can only be one reason why the buyers are not mentionned : if POG starts climbing...nobody can join the EMU anymore ! ????? Is this a too simple reason ?
Does Acid Andy knows at what real price the Austrians have sold ? Has the EMU set a price on all Gold ? This weak a Belgian delegation went to Poland. It want take long before they also jump in. How much gold do they have ? And on what basis is each country supposed to buy or sell, shortage/excess of CB gold ?

Eurocrats want to consolidate their existence, trough frentic adherence of other states. It is Each politician's
dream to retire very early into a european parlement seat with a king's salary. The political machine sees in this europarlement palace, an magnificent tool for recrutement.etc...etc...
Tree in the Forest
(04/05/2001; 18:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51448)
Belgian
Excellent posts today sir. You said:
"And do the dollar/euro actors really know for sure the outcome of what they are planning ? No way ! Any accident can change the hidden course they have planned."
I think you have really penetrated to an important issue here. With their overweening arrogance, "they" believe they have the power of God and can know and manage any desired outcome. They do have power but as Robert Burns once said, the best laid plans of mice and men "gang aft aglee". This is one place where I disagreed with Pandagold. He had an absolute belief in their power to bring their plan to fruition; I do not. And obviously you don't either.
Curious
(04/05/2001; 19:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51449)
Randy, Have the 5th Horsemen Contest winners been announced yet? Where or when will they be announced?
http://www.sightings.com/general9/adam.htm I and other viewers would appreciate a listing of the posters, main themes and message numbers so that we could go back and review and compare the various entries. Some were truly outstanding. Or better yet repost them all together at one location if someone has the time to do this.

I posted a contest entry as message number 51210 on 0401/01 on the theme The 10th (actually 12th) planet Nibiri by Zacharia Sitchin and was fascinated to see an article on the Sightings site dated 4 4 01 entitled the Case of Adam's Alien Genes by Dr. Sitchin that discussed several of the points that I was trying to recall from his previous writings.

He again discussed the theory that man was created on this planet to mine the gold that the Anunnaki needed to maintain the atmosphere on the 12th planet that comes by Earth in a regular orbit about every 3600 years. Anyone who read my entry and was interested in learning more should look at his article linked above for a truly fascinating story.

I wonder if he read my contest entry and then decided to post the above referenced article to the sightings site (grin).
Canuck
(04/05/2001; 19:38:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51450)
@ Topaz
No.
RossL
(04/05/2001; 19:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51451)
Notes from today's posts
I haven't had much time to read or post lately, so I'm just going to interject a few quick comments.
####

SHIFTY # 51424 - End Game
Is this guy for real? Has Doug been drinking too much coffee in the morning lately?
####

beesting #51429 - Snip from MARKETWATCH NEWS
"This is a forward sale, which is fantastic. If everyone else in the market is doing the same thing, it would be foolish to do otherwise," Mitsui's Smith said.
"If the miners have hedge books, why should the central banks have any qualms about playing the same game?"

Is this guy for real? Should I jump off a cliff if everybody else is? Could this be an acknowledgement that the central banks are intent on providing liquidity for futures markets?
####

Al Fulchino #51443 - snip on the federal govt:
"They are responsible for a significant portion costwise and only part of it is taxes. Oh and by the way, that goverment is you and me :) "

Since you used the smiley after the statement, I don't know if you are serious or joking, but that kind of statement is the kind of collectivist statement that really irritates me!
####

auspec #51446 - the union - "Whose allegiance do you pledge more closely, the Union or Constitution?"
While I am raving about collectivism, the concept that the union is more important than the constitution is one that really really irritates me!
####

Tree in the Forest - I still believe that a lot of those "stoppers" are trading warehouse receipts among themselves. They may have a large percentage of that metal in allocated accounts.
Tree in the Forest
(04/05/2001; 20:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51452)
Ross L
You could indeed be right and Ted Butler has also made that assertion. The data I have collected is an attempt to prove or disprove this very idea. I don't know yet what it will show or even if I have enough data to show anything. But take a look at it when I post it and see if you can form an opinion. Thanks for your input.
megatron
(04/05/2001; 20:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51453)
Look out below,again
Mark my words, todays rally in stocks was a pre-emptive strike against some VERY unhappy news that is about to be released, nothing more. Since Magoo couldn't raise rates today there was only one alternative. Make money the old fashioned way. How pathetic. I love how they say in the media 'investors' caused the rallies today.
Peter Asher
(04/05/2001; 20:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51454)
The Offline Blues
Hi. This is Robin, Peter's wife, writing from my daughter's computer. Both Peter's and my computers died within two weeks of each other, and Peter has been without facilities since Tuesday morning. He hopes to be back in the land of the living by the weekend.
R Powell
(04/05/2001; 20:34:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51455)
O-fer day
No hat trick today. POG and AUX index down just slightly but lease rates were down a fair amount. Still higher than normal but down on the day.
Agree with megatron. This is an upturn rally in a bear market. Perhaps the bear wants more money to tear apart. She's still a cub with a tremendous appetite.
Rich
R Powell
(04/05/2001; 20:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51456)
Year to date gains by sector
from page A20-21 of todays IBD newspaper.
Defense -6.2%
Defensive -12.9%
Leisure -4.0%
Consumer -11.0%
Medical/Healthcare -19.7%
Dow Transports -8.3%
Dow Utilities -8.4%
American Stock Ex. -6.5%
N.Y.S.E. Composite -12.8%
Gold +5.0%
The paper lists ten gold mining companies making up this gold sector. The longer the gold sector is the only positive for the year, the more likely it might get noticed by some substantial money. How little (by comparison to other sectors) it would take to get us into full rock and roll mode.
Rich
Al Fulchino
(04/05/2001; 21:22:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51457)
Ross L
Al Fulchino #51443 - snip on the federal govt:
"They are responsible for a significant portion costwise and only part of it is taxes. Oh and by the way, that goverment is you and me :) "

Since you used the smiley after the statement, I don't know if you are serious or joking, but that kind of statement is the kind of collectivist statement that really irritates me!

Ross, the point is that we have allowed ourselves to be screwed? Any questions?
justamereBear
(04/05/2001; 23:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51458)
Ross L 51452

Not trying to start anything, just to understand your post.
You wrote to Al Fulchino re 51443 "that kind of collectivist statement really irritates me."
The statement had 2 parts. One about expenses and taxes, and one about the government being you and me. Which is collectivist, and/or which part irritates you?

BTW I agree with your general direction to auspec immediately following re "concept of union more important than constitution irritates me" and I am not even a citizen, however I guess I don't understand collectivist.

Is collectivist a new US way of saying "commie"?

j'Bear

tg
(04/05/2001; 23:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51459)
(No Subject)
Anyone notice how George W has toned down his aggressive stance towards China, to a statement of regret.

I guess Greenspan must of had a word to George W and told him who holds the economic 'wild card'.
Gandalf the White
(04/06/2001; 00:07:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51460)
< ; - )>>
WOWSERS !!! Leave one day to scout Morels and while I am gone the PPT builds the biggest BEAR TRAP that has been attempted in many a year. Note where the S&P Futures started today? Can you spell "manipulation" ? Grab all the YELLOW that you can as the time bomb has started to tick FASTER.
<;-)View Yesterday's Discussion.

tedw
(04/06/2001; 00:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51461)
China
http://www.usagold.com
BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS. SPREAD THE WORD EVERYWHERE.
SHIFTY
(04/06/2001; 00:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51462)
tedw
BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS. I have been doing that since 1992. Its not easy nowadays.
I must admit I do own a few Gold Panda coins. I try to buy made in the USA stuff even if the cost is much higher. We don't make much here anymore. The only time I buy something made out of the USA is if I NEED something and I cant get one made in the US. I even own and drive a US Army truck daily.
:-)
$hifty
tg
(04/06/2001; 00:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51463)
(No Subject)
Good idea tedw, boycott all chinese products so that the only thing they can sell is US debt paper. That will solve the problems in the US. After the dollar collapses and the markets are in strife we can demand an apology.

How dare the chinese stop us from spying.

Maybe this is just a masterplan by the gold industry to send the price of gold soaring. Lets bomb the bastards. Naaah, wont happen GolmanSachs will apologize on behalf of the president.We cant let gold rise
SHIFTY
(04/06/2001; 01:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51464)
Gandalf the White
Morels How has the hunt been going?

$hifty
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 01:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51465)
Minister Dismisses OPEC Injunction
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010404/venezuela_opec.html
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuelan Oil Minister Alvaro Silva assailed a U.S. judge's order that OPEC stop abiding by its production agreements. ``It's an action that makes no sense, and absolutely contrary to law,'' Silva told reporters Wednesday. ``Neither international organizations nor sovereign states can be played with, according to what North American courts have long maintained.''

Black Blade: This little follow up to last nights post. Oil price manipulation, what a novel concept. Hmmm�
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 02:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51466)
Natural Gas Exploration Falls Flat, Markets Tank and PMs Set to Rise

Natural gas exploration proceeds with gusto and yet the increased exploration and production is falling behind. This translates into much higher natural prices going forward. These higher prices also mean that electric utility rates are destined to go higher. These cost will be passed along to the consumer and that in itself means inflation. A recent study by Simmon & Co. Intl. Has determined that US natural gas production has fallen 2.7% in the fourth quarter. This is on top of 2.4% decline in production in 2000 compared to 1999. There are serious problems in infrastructure as well. There are not enough drill rigs or crews to expand exploration and production. The last price bust led most of the industry's experienced people, from geologists to drill crews to leave the industry. Another potential problem is if oil prices increase, then more drill rigs will likely shift to oil exploration and that will put further pressure on natural gas exploration, and therefore electrical rates will rise proportionately.

There are also environmental concerns that create political opposition as well. When it comes to power plants of any type, the NIMBY syndrome takes effect. People in many communities want electrical power, but they don't want to make the necessary sacrifices. The aging electrical grid is in serious decay and there simply isn't enough transmission capacity, much of which is attributable to the "New Economy." There are continuing difficulties in getting approval for natural gas pipelines.

Contrast this to the expected and planned increases in natural gas fired power plants. Security analysts at Dan Rauscher Wessels Inc. project that more than 275 new natural gas-fired power plants are planned to begin operation by 2006 and consume about 8.5 TCF/year. A very BIG question is "where is this additional Natural Gas going to come from? Some say that Canadian producers will fill this void. Not likely as the Canadian industry has increased supply and has come close to its limits. Canadian producers have to struggle to get enough gas at the wellhead to feed into the pipelines. The gas business constantly is racing to replace wells that play out. The industry must find the equivalent of 8 billion to 8.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day just to stay even, according to a study by Anadarko Petroleum Corp. of Houston.

The study by Simmons & Company International show that many wells with limited potential are being drilled and these new wells produce less on a daily basis, and they hold smaller reserves than those of the past. Data suggests that well quality has been deteriorating for five to 10 years, says the Simmons study. During that period, long spells of depressed prices led many companies to look for high-percentage, low-cost prospects.

Anadarko's study indicates that short-term gas production growth will be limited to 1 to 2 percent. This will not suffice and with the addition of new power plants, virtually of which are natural gas fired, the US is in for a World of hurt. The only likely areas of exploration left will come from the Gulf of Mexico deepwater fields, the Rocky Mountains, Canada and the Arctic. There is a push for liquefied natural gas imports, however, with only 20 specialized tankers for this purpose, the import of LNG is somewhat limited to about 2% of US natural gas stores and the price is relatively high.

In light of the gleeful outbursts from the CNBC talking heads such as Ron Insana and Joe Kernan, over a minor blip of rising stock indices on 4/5/00, the fundamentals still look horrible for the stock market. Earnings warnings continue to attribute losses to rising energy costs. Energy costs are set to rise this spring through fall and the markets are primed for more downside pressure. Fuel costs are also predicted to rise as we head into summer. This translates into higher transportation costs for goods and services. In order for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to continue the farce of low inflation data, they will have to hire David Copperfield to perform some tremendous feat of illusion as the public will no longer buy into the mantra of "benign inflation." I would expect that investor will soon tire of the Wall Street game and begin to move solidly into hard assets such as precious metals and real estate. Many have been whip-sawed by the markets as they have followed the advice of self-serving brokers, financial planners, and the investment bankers.

Gold has been inching higher over the last few days in response to the decaying equities markets. This could be a minor precursor of what is to come in the coming months as a massive shift in investor sentiment takes hold. As gold is in effect money, many will consider this investment as portfolio insurance and one of very few safe harbors for what is to come. As a wealth preservation vehicle, gold is not only a liquid asset that will carry the wary investor across these dangerous waters, it could also be a wealth enhancing investment as the gold proxy Homestake Gold Mine (MH) was during the Great Depression of the early 1930's with gains of over 740%. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis, and this time will be no different. Gold has generally done quite well in times of economic uncertainty and will continue to do so. This is not usually the case with currency.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 02:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51467)
Governor Uses Televised Speech To Pitch Rate Increase, Energy Plan
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/sddt/20010405/lo/governor_uses_televised_speech_to_pitch_rate_increase_energy_plan_1.html

Gov. Gray Davis announced his plan to deal with the energy crisis during a televised speech Thursday night, calling for an average electricity rate increase of 26.5 percent, intense conservation efforts, new power plant construction and a comprehensive approach to saving the state's cash-strapped utilities. "The only long-term solution is to build more power plants. We must also cut back on consumption and stabilize the utilities. But prices won't fall and supply won't be truly reliable until we generate more power than we consume," he said.

Black Blade: Lots of PO'd Grasshoppers today. Higher rates and conservation in Kalifornia? I'll believe it when I see it. However, it looks as if the Kommissar is finally looking square into reality for a change.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 02:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51468)
Study: Risk of Energy Shutoffs Across U.S.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/abc/20010405/bs/energy010405_1.html

Snippit:

As many as 3.6 million families in 18 states and the District of Columbia risk having their energy cut off because of the rise in energy costs, a study says.

Black Blade: And I suggest that many more middle class folks will also feel the pinch.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 03:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51469)
Futures Lower and Unemployment Numbers Due Out
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htmStock indices futures are currently lower and much lower when "fair value" is factored in. Look for selling into the rally to take over. The only number to come out today is the unemployment number. It is expected that the number may be higher. This morning's Wall Street open looks to be a bear (pun intended) or should I say "Interesting."

- Black Blade
Zenidea
(04/06/2001; 03:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51470)
Who'll shuffle whose cards ?
Some may have grave reservations given the (not to be underestimated) implications if America steps on China's toes. I wouldnt want to see another flogging as per Vietnam.
The best way to get a friend is to be a friend isnt it?.
Moderating the language in the media is my first tip.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 03:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51471)
Budget Surplus?
I left the room for a moment and while listening to the TV I thought that the channel had somehow been changed to the cartoon channel as I thought that I was listening to Fog Horn Leg Horn. When I returned to the room I saw that it was Sen. Earnest Hollings (D. South Carolina). He did however say something interesting. He admitted that there is no budget surplus and that there hasn't been any budget surplus. Of course we already knew that since off-budget funds such as Social Security and Medicare are routinely transferred to the General Accounting Office and are then magically entered into the alleged budget surplus column. The funds that are removed form SS and Medicare are replaced by debt instruments such as Treasuries and other government bonds (IOU's). Good scam though.

Golden dreams All!

- Black Blade
Zenidea
(04/06/2001; 03:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51472)
And re: Gold
China is quite likely the Good Charioteer for Gold-bugs for whom else has the clout to crack that chest-nut? at will?.
SteveH
(04/06/2001; 04:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51473)
Question and comment
Comment:

Yesterday the DOW spiked high right at the open. Intuitively (meaning I can't explain the exact mechanism) I saw that as a result of the DOW futures having been so high at open. The actual hour-to-hour rise was not earth shattering. In other words, what ever energy there was in the market was front loaded by the DOW futures before opening.

I assume that it takes much less money to make futures go up than the actual market, would this sharp pre-open future spike in the DOW yesterday have been an attempt by a house or houses to get a short-cover rally going to sell into and perhaps see how much money was sitting on the side? In other words...

Question: What is correlation and mechanism whereby this happened and does anybody see a different angle?

Steve
LeSin
(04/06/2001; 04:57:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51474)
RUSSKIES TALKING UP THE EURO
http://russia.strana.ru/economics/finance/2001/04/05/986477657.htmlMy comment - One would think they would be advised to carry the Ruble - "S"
Now the article:

Russians advised to carry euro rather than dollars in their pockets
05.04.01. 17:35

�According to Mikhail Delyagin, Director of the Institute of Globalization Problems, Russia needs to support the euro and oust the dollar by replacing dollar reserves with it. This, he said, would also encourage the population to orient themselves toward the euro instead of the dollar. He was speaking at the Euro-2001 conference.

Dollars account for 80% of the cash Russians take with them when going abroad but only two percent of them go to countries of the dollar zone. Delyagin pointed out that the European Union has decided to raise the fee levied on exchanges of cash dollars for the euro and it is close to a decision to cut the period allowing the dollar and the euro in circulation after the introduction of the cash euro down to two months.

Although European currencies are weaker than the dollar, Russians have European cash, primarily German marks. According to Alexander Khandruyev, Vice President of the Reforma Foundation and former deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, in the coming two to three years the euro's exchange rate to the dollar will show no significant change. But he expects the euro to show growth trends in the medium- and long term.

Among other things, the process will be assisted by a narrower gap between interest rates in the United States, Japan and Europe. Besides, experts expect the rate of inflation in Europe to be lower than in the United States. (1.7% and 2.1% respectively). The cash euro will have a growing impact on the economies of EU countries and grow stronger in the process as it becomes more attractive than the dollar
lamprey_65
(04/06/2001; 06:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51475)
A find...
http://home.flash.net/~rhmjr/index.htmlI found this site in my wanderings this morning...thought it important enough to share. Take a few minutes to go through the entire site -- won't take too long, but it is interesting.

How does it relate to gold?

Well, people could be about to learn the meaning of "safe-haven".

Lamprey
Henri
(04/06/2001; 07:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51476)
origins of gold
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap010405.htmletherial thoughts
JMB
(04/06/2001; 08:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51477)
SWIFTY
You've been known to post a lyric or two, would you happen to have the lyrics for "The Party's Over"?

We might have to break out that tune re the Buck before long.
USAGOLD
(04/06/2001; 09:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51478)
Today's Commentary and Review: Some Thoughts on the Austrian Sale -- So what does a central bank take for collateral on a gold loan?
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: I would like to take this opportunity to thank all who participated in our Fifth Horseman contest. I was expecting a strong competition and I don't think any of us were disappointed. We are now sorting through all the entries attempting to make the difficult decision on a winner.
---------------------


4/6/01. . . .
www.usagold.com . . . . Some
stock market analysts wondered
aloud yesterday whether or not the
400 point rise in the Dow was for
real or another one day wonder. This
morning it's looking like the latter
after both the Dow and Nasdaq
plunged on a weak employment
report and more bad news on profits
(or the lack thereof) from America's
corporations. The looming specter of
recession has put a damper on stock
investor expectations and sent
portfolio managers and investors
alike in search of alternatives. (See
"Portfolio Managers Turing to Gold,
right --Commentary & Review
Page). As one veteran stock market
analyst puts it: "This Bear has some
very sharp claws."

Gold was up marginally in early
trading shrugging off yesterday's
news of the Austrian 30-ton forward
sale. In a Dow Jones report, Rhona
O'Connell from Cannacord
commented this morning that the gold
was sold forward due to the Austrian
central bank's need to collect leased
gold in order to complete the sale --
an interesting twist to the transaction
that might raise an eyebrow or two.
If nothing else, this might mean that
another 30-tons of gold has left the
rapidly shrinking lease pool. . . .
(But there may be more to it than
that. . .)

We Invite you to join us at
COMMENTARY & REVIEW for
the Rest of the Story. . . .
.Also some updated gold
snippets and interesting links.
. . . . .

Registration required. Go to link above. Includes free
trial access to Commentary &
Review, a free information packet on
gold ownership, News & Views --
our popular newsletter, and our
Client Intro to Centennial Precious
Metals/USAGOLD (by mail).
auspec
(04/06/2001; 09:39:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51479)
Trail Guide/All/In Defense of the Dollar
Odds or End?Hello Trail Guide and ALL, this is your humble correspondent, trying to make sense of our rapidly changing currency world. Please bear with me as explanations for the "end game" scenario are sought. Am I really going to defend the US Dollar? Only relatively speaking, because I can't see the hyperinflation script coming to pass that we so readily toss about on this Forum. No problem whatsoever in visioning the rise of the Euro, just in what degree of demise of the dollar.
FOA, your 3-10-01 piece, "On the Road", is classic excellence so I would like to take excerpts from it as this "Defense of the Dollar" takes format. My questions/comments are surrounded by *'s.




In my last post USAGOLD Forum post (#48858) we noted that the paper gold game was reaching it's limits. The BOE was almost asking "what do you want us to do"? The answer came as plain as day as the paper price was driven a little lower in return for a gold sale reduction. Yes, clear as a mountain stream,,,, the unwinding has begun! It will continue until the big event when the gold rules are officially changed. Not much different than when the dollar hit it's credibility limit in 1971. As Randy has often pointed out; the US printed gold contracts back then until they (dollars on the gold exchange standard) lost their mathematical ability to be converted into gold.>

*If the dollar's status is now so similar to what it was in 1971, why would we see the Brazil type hyperinflation now as opposed to the simple ongoing degredation of fiat that we have all come to know and hate? Why the extreme portrayal of the dollar? It's clear the dollar is an old toad and there are young stallions waiting in the wings, but it's hard to see this as an all-or-none issue where the dollar {banana} goes from being the world's reserve currency to being "nada". Where's the middle ground with dual and competing reserve currencies in common use?*






The Washington Agreement placed in context where the Euro system is going with gold. That pronouncement drove home the fact that our Dollar gold pricing system was going to die with the dollar reserve function. The WA placed us "on the road" to high priced physical gold and low priced contract gold. It could have been the end of the LBMA pricing structure, right then and there, except that it would have clocked the global financial structure too fast.

Indeed, our Euro friends helped the system out by giving it some more of the same poison, more paper gold inflation. Yes, all the while since the WA, people have been falling all over each other trying to explain why so much new European gold has entered the market through lending. Yet, all that was mostly lent was more paper credits built upon a failing dollar gold pricing system. You see, they left the maintaining of system credibility to the dollar faction. Kind of strange how gold keeps showing up as part of the US trade deficit? Even is it's only a trickle.

Gold bugs cry that the paper market is not free because government endorsed inflation in this arena is killing it's price structure. Almost as if they want fiat gold that less inflated? Well, that's great if your "gold" money is in our modern gold producing industry and that's hip deep in committing it's product to satisfy these same paper contracts. Yes, this mistake of "hard money" allocation by
western savers, is the result of ignoring history and how currency systems evolve. Gold industry investments work if the current fiat system is remaining "in use", but showing price inflation. However, when currency systems fall "out of use" while moving into super price inflation,,,,, the
next competing system will side with physical gold! It doesn't happen often, but when it does real wealth in one's hand becomes worth many times investments in "almost gold". Truly, the dollar price of physical gold is going higher than anyone expects.>

*Comments: Again it is easy to see the dollar as losing a large piece of the action, but hard to see its total demise or its falling out of use. The US as the largest military force in the world certainly has its overriding benefits. Let's look forward to the next 5 years and place probabilities on what is likely to happen as far as the dollar/euro is concerned. I will rank these various scenarios in what I see as their most likely odds of happening:

1}Ongoing MODERATE debasement of US Dollar.

2}Gold and/or Oil breaks away from the dollar.

3}Dual and competing reserve currencies.

4}Status quo.

5}All out war that distracts/rescues the dollar and extends its life.

6}Dollar merged with euro/backed by euro.

7}Brazillian style hyperinflation of the $, the Big Banana.

Another question comes to mind: What advantage would it be to the Power Elite to destroy the dollar. Yes, a one world government and currency would suffice as a legitimate reason, but the old guy likely has many deeds yet to perform.



*Questions: The dollar has defaulted twice to date, yet chugs along. What "history lessons" best show us the endline that awaits the dollar? By "super price inflation" are you referring to something much worse than the US in the 1970's? You must be, as that fiasco was "successfully" negotiated. Are we looking for a low probability event that has only happened a few times in history, or a high probability event that has happened every time in history as a currency reserve ages?
As per gold "industry" investments, they will do just fine at your $360 POG from todays level. The Romanian deposit that contains 8-10 million ounces should fare well regardless of what currency is "reserve". You stated: "Gold industry investments work if the current fiat system is remaining "in use", but showing price inflation." Are you talking all or none with the dollar as reserve currency of the world or reserve currency of none? The dollar will remain in use, IMHO, until there is a one world currency, even Brazil "uses" their currency of old. So we have the dollar and we have the inflation, and we get gold stock appreciation. Please don't misunderstand me, as I have a greater current appreciation for physical than stocks, but just can't see this as 'all or none'.
Maybe a lesson is needed in "how currency systems evolve". The waiter replies: "Sorry sir, we're out of the hyperinflation, but there is always plenty of inflation available in the kitchen."
Thanks, Trail Guide, for your many and fine efforts. I remain, on the trail.*
A mere spec of au
Old Yeller
(04/06/2001; 09:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51480)
Implications of Kyoto opt-out
http://www.futuresource.com/cfnews.asp?c=26&aid=41603&cid=4339&pd=
This is sheer speculation on my part,but has anyone else noticed the USDX made a peak right around the annoucement of the opt-out by Bush.The Europeans take this issue very seriously and if the US isn't going to play ball,there are other ways to reduce emissions.Steady selling of US dollar reserves may have the desired effect of conservation through
price pressure.

Check out the technical comments on gold,as well,looks encouraging.

Thanks to bugbear at prubear forum for the link.

Old Yeller
(04/06/2001; 10:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51481)
auspec;#51479

Wow,great post.Let's see if the big fish rises to the bait.
turkey hunter
(04/06/2001; 11:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51482)
Russia values gold at $300 oz
Russian central bank gold stocks up on April 1


MOSCOW, April 6 (Reuters) - The value of gold reserves held by Russia's central bank rose by $13 million to $3.767 billion on April 1 from $3.754 billion on March 1, the central bank said in a statement on its Internet site on Friday.

The central bank officially values its gold reserves at $300 per troy ounce.

The bank's website (www.cbr.ru) said total gold and foreign exchange reserves rose to $29.709 billion on April 1 from $28.345 billion on March 1.

The central bank's reserves include gold, foreign currency and Special Drawing Rights, an international reserve asset that is essentially a currency of the International Monetary Fund.
Gandalf the White
(04/06/2001; 11:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51483)
< ; - )>> Lots of things popping !
Wonder what yesterdays "dipsters" think of that big iron trap on their pocketbooks today ? NICE Bear Trap -- Ay?
Shifty -- looking good, but like yours and I decided to let them grow some more before harvest. Gold is awaking also. SteveH, this is what ORO and I have discussed before. I do also believe that you are correct! Perhaps ORO can discuss this arrangement, when he returns.
<;-)
ge
(04/06/2001; 12:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51484)
A dollar of dangerous strength
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3S56FE5LC&live=true"For years, most economists assumed that when US share prices fell, the dollar would come down with them. But though the dollar's main prop is being chipped away week by week, the currency has taken on a life of its own. Its continuing strength could not only make global economic imbalances worse but also mean any eventual correction is sharper and more damaging.

"The US last year needed a net inflow of more than $400bn - equal to 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product - to fund its current account deficit. Such giant flows of capital, it was almost universally believed, would continue only if equity markets continued to rise and US bonds offered greater returns than assets elsewhere. Without capital flows propping it up, the dollar would surely slide.

"But for the moment, the currency is defying gravity. The S&P 500 has fallen 16 per cent since the beginning of the year, compared with a 13 per cent fall in the FTSE Eurotop 300 and a small rise in Japanese stocks. Meanwhile the difference between yields on US and euro-zone two-year bonds - US yields were more than 1 percentage point bigger late last year - has disappeared.

"By contrast, other currencies with yawning current accounts to support, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, have fallen sharply. The US dollar's recent rise against the yen is understandable, given the Bank of Japan's commitment to monetary easing. But convincing explanations for its strength against other currencies, especially the euro, are becoming harder to find. ...

SHIFTY
(04/06/2001; 12:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51485)
Gandalf the White
You have me confused with someone else. I have only seen them in the store (dried) for $6.00 per oz. Never have ate one .....Yet. Hope to try them as soon as they show up at the store.
:-)

$hifty
Old Yeller
(04/06/2001; 12:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51486)
Mind the gap!
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.show_chart?pl_comp_id=0&pl_errmsg=&pl_primary_listing=comp-i&iaction=Chart&pl_period=6D&pl_chart_type=+&pl_additional_listing=+fn-t+g-t&pl_sh_movement=50&pl_long_movement=0
Today's pretty chart.Starting to resemble a big croc's mouth.

I wonder when dinner is?
Belgian
(04/06/2001; 13:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51487)
Au(re)spec(full)
Sir, your dollar and mine(s):
Russia (Le Sin) article : Russians, very strong Europ minded, come in with dollars in the pocket. This is a good illustration what dollar-supremacy, really means. It is purely perceptionnal. If, tomorrow, your are forced, to leave your home and country by emergency, and destination unknown... you take "automatically", dollar-notes with you ! The ones who were still taking Deutsche Mark, will also shift to US$. This is something that will definitely not change overnight ! Bad habits die slowly. That is the definition of the dollar-strenght that has been building up for years now. Impossible to explain these occasionnal dollar buyers that this green piece of printed paper is dramatically DEBT-LOADED ! They will all stare at you as from outer space. Thus the NADA for the dollar is absolutely not yet for tomorrow.

But all this same was true for the Britisch Pound, some 30 years ago. And this emperial pound was eroding at different speeds. As did the empire.
Things are going to change more rapidly within 300 days from now. You can put Euro-Paper in your pocket and all Russians (East Bockers) will come with Euros to buy their Volkswagen and other stuff. The sudden emergence of all this Euros at the same moment in say 20/30 countries, is a break through. I even suspect that parity with US$ is desired and managed up until 1/1/2002. This to make the transition from dollar-mind to Euro, much more acceptable ...hey, they have exactly the same value. Leave your calculator home...1 dollar=1 Euro.
Do you feel how sweet and softly the Euro will strangle the dollar-boa-non-constrictor ? When I listen to the news...these kind of remarks about currency stability and parity prognosisess are catching my attention to back this possible strategy. It is this subtle process of "CONFIDENCE" building that must explain a lot of what happens, included gold. That is why I repeat that the Dollar-warriors, were very imprudent by storming at the Euro, right from the beginning. Everybody had a laugh with Wimpie Duisenberg. Big mistake, gentlemen. He couldn't yell that the dollar is a lousy peace of paper and proving it with a few (Clintoon) charts. Europ was not explicitly saying that the Euro seemed weak because of dollar hyper valuation. No they kept quit and sticked to their strategy.
Put gold (and its price-range)again in this context.
Parity and stability :temporarely mutual interest, slowly proceeding to conflic of interest. And finally straight out currency war ! Again, attach POG behaviour on this strategy that is discretely deployed.
Is there some logic in this vieuw ? Can you interpret the different currency statements as evidence for such possible deroulement.?

Lamprey : SM and Gold :
Quo Vadis (going where) SM ? 1/ Psychologic Index supports are broken. 2/ Goldmines diverge right out positive. 3/ YSTB-30 yrs on the brink of breaking LT resistance line.
4/ Stagflation is official now. 5/ Signal function of POG is probably in the make (from TA standpoint).
Yep, Sir...1929 or not ? I'll explain later about the only thing that is bothering me : the A/D situation.

Shall a SM-crash, alter the scenario of Dollar/Euro parity...
into straigth currency warfare, skipping the soft approach ?
The dollar, pseudo strenghth was suggesting otherwise.
Will a dollarcrash be the appropiate manner to write-off the DEBT collossus ? Here the unforeseen accident possibility pops up. A perfect plan for robbing the bank can turn into a disaster, when the timing elements are not according to plan. We are touching 260$ resistance now.
POO and CRB are strong. Dow fluctuations are in sync with POG. I smell something different. Something like "acceptance". A prelude to PANIC. That is exactely what you and I are staring at, second by second. All passengers on the Titanic didn't jump at the same time, didn't they !

Dollar...Euro...Oil...SM...Gold : are very closely related.
We are desperately searching for the reasons why they are out of synchronisation. Difficult job. Until suddenly, they all do align, unexpectly. I feel very un-attached with physical gold and not one single share in my pocket. With one major exception : Gold Fields !

Auspec : your infla/defla/stagfla lalala.
The last 21 years, these 3 lalas, were pushed aside (overshadowed) by only one major evolution : DEBTUAL CURRENCY EROSION ! Please, allow the Gravity of this World- Debt-Drama, overwhelm you completely. Japanese even want to print money to buy stock !!!!!!!!!! There was already a BANK-RUN, style '29 in Japan ('95). Human queus were angrily waiting for the money-trucks to arrive for unloading fiat at closed banks.

It is not only POG that is manipulated : ALMOST EVERYTHING IS SYNTHETIC AND UNNATURAL ! Speculatitis pandomy.
We impossibly can time the end, but we know and must remember always, the final outcome. **** That's why we are carrying gold ! *** I don't know if 8,3% rise in an overvalued NASDAQ is a sign of touching the limits ? But are we waiting for 20% oscillations in a matter of minutes, before starting to realise that something is a bit exaggerated ?
Relax ! Over to you.
LimitUp
(04/06/2001; 13:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51488)
Lets Get Proactive
Can anyone explain to me why we tolerate a bunch of banksters "fixing" the price of gold each day? Why don't we gold bugs "fix" and sell our gold for $1000 per oz. This should start a run on gold buying by the sheeple at the bankster price.
Max Rabbitz
(04/06/2001; 13:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51489)
Great Idea Sir Limitup!!!
But can we not tell MK about it just yet. I need to accumulate some more.
CoBra(too)
(04/06/2001; 14:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51490)
Odds or End(s)?
Hello Auspec and not just a spec of au,

What a great and well reasoned essay, back at the more serious side of the eco-equation - though I always appreciate the lighter side, as well.
I couldn't agree more with your reasoning and as always your message is presented with the flair of the conaisseur.

Thank you for sharing -cb2

R Powell
(04/06/2001; 14:27:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51491)
Hat trick day
POG, the XAU index and lease rates all up today.
The gold mining index was barely positive to offset yesterday's barely negative number. Most encouraging IMHO is the good up move in lease rates. The libor is not changing much at all, it's the gold forward rate that is constricting. This, along with the higher rates is usually interpreted as an indication of short supply, at least in the immediate time frame but perhaps also long term.
This has been an ongoing condition since before the BOE auction. Any thoughts or news concerning supply problems??
Rich
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/06/2001; 14:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51492)
Unofficial results... Congratulations to VanRip!
Unless overturned by overlooked evidence to the contrary, it looks like VanRip has won the gold tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic for his closest prediction to today's closing price on the COMEX June gold contract. Posted below for your review is an excerpt of pertinent news from Rueters at the close of the market, followed by a compilation of the contest entries. (The panel of judges will require more time for the Fifth Horseman contest).

And once again thanks is extended, as always, to the fine folks at Centennial Precious Metals for sponsoring these events.
---------------------

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - COMEX gold settled Friday near the top of its trading range, riding trade and producer hedge lifting with sentiment buoyed by the firmer tone of the euro and the Australian unit against the U.S. dollar.

Some steady physical demand from industrial users and the Far East likewise provided a lift for bullion futures, brokers said.

June gold went out $1.80 higher to end at $260.90 an ounce, ranging between $258.40 and $261.10.

Lease rates have ranged far away from the 1.0 percent or below figure seen last February, in a sign consumers and forward sellers must compete for a smaller supply of gold for loan... Talk circulated that a major fund was said to be buying bullion, but further details were hard to come by.
------------------------

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/29/01; 13:17:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51011)
+++++ $238 +++++

IronHead (04/01/01; 21:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51208)
+++++++$251.725+++++++

Golden Truth (03/30/01; 12:09:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51078)
No Subject
++++++++ 251.80 ++++++++

EagleOne (4/1/2001; 9:48:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51177)
+++++++ 252.50 +++++++

Seeker of the Grail (04/02/01; 06:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 51237)
++++++++++++++++(253.755)++++++++++++++++

RossL (04/02/01; 13:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51264)
+++++ $254.90 +++++

kosher (04/01/01; 23:30:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51215)
+++++ $255.15 +++++

ausome (03/30/01; 05:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51055)
+++++255.60++++

Broken Tee (03/30/01; 10:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51073)
+++++++ $255.75 ++++++++

FluorideCommie (03/30/01; 11:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51077)
+++++ (256.25) +++++

Tannehill (04/02/01; 02:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51229)
+++++($256.60)+++++

Genoo (04/02/01; 13:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51269)
*****256.60*****

Simply Me (04/02/01; 16:04:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51287)
+++++ $256.80 +++++

Max Rabbitz (04/02/01; 09:52:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51248)
++++++257.10++++++

R Powell (3/31/2001; 14:13:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51134)
+++++++257.40++++++

Journeyman (04/02/01; 13:42:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51266)
+++++ $257.55 +++++

canamami (04/02/01; 15:47:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51283)
+++++++++258.00++++++++++

Canuck Gold (04/02/01; 15:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51278)
+++++ $258.5 +++++

Black Blade (4/1/2001; 4:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51174)
+++++$259.30+++++

SEER (04/02/01; 08:43:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51244)
++++++259.40++++++

VanRip (04/02/01; 09:22:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51246)
++++++260.20++++++

The Hoople (04/01/01; 20:27:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51204)
+++++ $262.70 +++++

CoBra(too) (3/31/2001; 16:07:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51142)
++++ 263.50 +++++

24Wortel (04/02/01; 13:08:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51262)
Price Guess
+++++ (263.70) +++++

Peter Asher (04/02/01; 15:52:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51285)
+++++$264.40+++++

justamereBear (04/02/01; 16:26:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51290)
*******266.00******

Gandalf the White (03/30/01; 12:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51080)
++++++++++++++266.6+++++++++++++++

Orville Goldenbacher (03/30/01; 15:30:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51090)
++++++++++$268.60++++++++++

Topaz (03/30/01; 05:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51054)
+++++++++++$272+++++++++++

JMB (04/02/01; 13:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51267)
+++++++++++++++++$285.00+++++++++++++++

working-kirk (3/31/2001; 0:33:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51110)
++++++++++++++315.00++++++++++++++

The Invisible Hand (3/31/2001; 2:50:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51115)
+++++ $ 32,452.80 +++++
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 14:45:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51493)
Pacific Gas & Electric Seeks Bankruptcy
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010406/bs/pge_bankruptcy_dc_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Pacific Gas & Electric Co., which is California's largest investor-owned utility and has been struggling with that state's power crisis, said on Friday it filed a voluntary petition for bankruptcy protection with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District California. Trading was halted in PG&E shares on the New York Stock Exchange before the filing. They last traded at $11.36, down 2 cents.

Black Blade: No one should be surprised as this has been discussed here over the last couple of months. It's going to be a long hot summer in the People's Republik of Kalifornia.
R Powell
(04/06/2001; 14:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51494)
Steve H (51473)

I've listened to many opinions, mostly at the gold-eagle castle, that the government plunge protection team uses the index numbers to influence investors perception of which way the markets are heading.
The index numbers, Dow, Duck, and S+P, are all traded as futures with a bid and ask price. Buying (going long) the index with an offer above the "ask" price (and thus also above the bid price) immediately raises the index number that millions of people watch constantly. There are posters at G-E who claim to have access to watch massive amounts of money ramp up the index numbers as it happens.
With the right real-time quotes this should be possible.
If true, it would be the quickest, least expensive means to influence investors' outlook on stock price direction. A poster named genebaby watches this at G-E. He claims there are different accounts using numerous brokers to pull it off. Jessie Livermore used the same method to outfox the bucket shops who were also using the same methods to scam the general public. Livermore caught them unaware and had the resourses to do it.
These index numbers are traded on the Globex and are active 24 hours a day so are easily manipulated overnight in thin trading. Perhaps Cage Rattler or other traders can offer more. I believe your entirely right and this is occuring especially on very big down days.
Rich
R Powell
(04/06/2001; 14:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51495)
Continue
I should add to clarify that Jessie Livermore used the same method years ago but was manipulating the price of individual stocks, not index numbers. He was using telegraph and state of the art communications like telephones. Telephones were part of the "new technology" that was changing the economic cycles so that the bull market of the 1920's was never going to end. Sound familar?
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/06/2001; 14:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51496)
The last of the German gold coins
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlMK called me earlier to report that he had secured additional Kaiser Wilhelm II gold coins to support the excess demand for current online offer, however, these additonal supplies are now down to the final 100 coins.

If you have an interest in these popular coins, you are advised to call Centennial promptly during the remaining business hours today...or place your order online.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 15:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51497)
Gold producers seek catalysts to boost demand for metal
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3MFKKQ6LC&live=true&tagid=YYY9BSINKTM&useoverridetemplate=IXLZHNNP94C
Snippit:

New research on the metal's catalytic properties shows that gold has interesting industrial prospects, which could increase world consumption by up to 400 tonnes a year within the next decade.

Black Blade: a drawdown of 400 tons a year. Hmmm�

BTW, I heard from a couple of sources in Nevada that there have been high level talks at 2 of North America's largest gold producers concerning the high cost of energy. Some corporate execs have been visiting their companies mines and probably to give out the bad news. Also, there is not going to be any meaningful exploration and that means lower output over the next few years. It looks as if there may be more distress in Gold Country as there may be more layoffs and reduced gold production.
R Powell
(04/06/2001; 15:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51498)
VanRip and Randy
Mr. Van Rip, congrats. Obviously you have the Midas touch of prediction. The oracle at Delphia has positions available for those with your gift!
Randy (51492) said, "Talk circulated that a major fund was said to be buying bullion, but further details were hard to come by."
Can you provide any more? Any links to the sourse of this quote or knowledge of which fund? Funds buy and sell daily so to be newsworthy this must have been an unusally large amount of buying. Substantiation of any such rumor would lead to great fun, no? TIA for any word.
Rich
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/06/2001; 15:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51499)
R Powell's inquiry
This has been made clear to me...the less I offer in these matters, the better.
USAGOLD
(04/06/2001; 15:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51500)
PG&E Bankruptcy Bombshell. . . .
"SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California's energy crisis lurched into a new and potentially dangerous phase on Friday as Pacific Gas & Electric, the state's largest utility, suddenly and unexpectedly declared bankruptcy. . .

Analysts said the filing for Chapter 11 protection marked the biggest utility bankruptcy in U.S. history . . . ."

Note: This Reuters story was logged 5:04 EDT after the stock market closed, but I heard the first report on KOA-Denver about 2pm MDT. Don't know if the announcement was generally known while the market was open.
USAGOLD
(04/06/2001; 15:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51501)
Black Blade
Sorry BB. . . .Didn't know you posted the PG&E story. Should have known you'd be on top of that one.

Systemic risk everywhere you look. . .Japan, California, a stack of third world currency debacles, the derivatives problem. Not to mention what damage Wall Street is doing to balance sheets. I smell a big rate cut in this wind blowing in from the left coast. And I smell deterioration in financial sector stocks that will act as a throttle on this stock market. We'll see where it goes. . . .Monday chould be interesting.

And one more systemic risk. . . .the gold bullion banking crisis now in its infancy. If a hedge is covering (and I have no reason to doubt Reuters), it's not hard to see why.

"This Bear has some sharp claws."
RossL
(04/06/2001; 16:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51502)
PGE
MK - I saw the news on the internet at Yahoo sometime before 4:00 EDT when the market closed.
RossL
(04/06/2001; 16:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51503)
PGE
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PCG&d=1dIt looks like trading resumed just after 3PM Eastern with the stock down 36%.
USAGOLD
(04/06/2001; 17:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51504)
Thanks, Ross. . . .and question for Black Blade
Just talked to GC at the office. He points out that we don't know the extent of the fall out yet, ie, Bank America, Wells Fargo, et al. Also, raises a question about other California utilities.

Black Blade, a question, good sir and resident energy expert: What are the possibilities of rolling bankruptcies in California utilities? What's the story on that? I know you've probably posted on that in the past but can you give it to us again in light of the PG&E story?

Ross L. . .Hard to believe there was any downside left in that stock given the situation out there. From the looks of your graph, this was not the day for a utility fund manager to step out for lunch. It all started it seems around lunch time in NY.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 18:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51505)
RE: USAGOLD - A Quick Cursory Assessment of the California Power Crisis
Question: Black Blade, a question, good sir and resident energy expert: What are the possibilities of rolling bankruptcies in California utilities? What's the story on that? I know you've probably posted on that in the past but can you give it to us again in light of the PG&E story?

Black Blade (My Take): I just stepped in and caught an interview with Robert Glynn, Chairman of PG&E, on CNNfn. He said that "Californians should brace themselves for service interruptions and rolling blackouts." Intuitively I would expect that So. Cal. Edison will follow in PG&E's footsteps on this with their own bankruptcy filing. They are not in much better shape. Curiously, no one has really mentioned the hit on the financiers of the ute debt picture as many major banks have over $8.5 billion at risk. Normally in the case of bankruptcy the creditors would get paid first, then the bond holders, and then lastly the shareholders. However, there have only been 2 utility bankruptcies since the Great Depression. This also brings into question how the political forces will react as they may force the utilities into a situation where the state may seize the assets under Gov. Gray Davis's eminent domain threat. In that case the financiers may just have to "eat" over $8.5 billion in debt. I wonder how the bankers such as B of A, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York, etc will react on Monday and how they will treated on Wall Street. I suggest that it will get very ugly. Then there is the possibility of a Federal bailout much like former President George H.W. Bush accomplished with he Savings and Loan fiasco a few years ago. This energy crisis could very well carry over into utility support services and leak into the rest of the economy as well, especially the energy intensive industries resulting in additional bankruptcy filings and facility closures.

Energy is critical to the economy and just today Larry Kudlow on CNBC said that no one seems to have realized how important energy is to the economy. Quite a change in sentiment huh? As I see it, there is no easy answer. Yesterday I noticed that NG prices for So. Cal. Contracts were over $15.30/mmbtu. These prices are higher for California because of the risk factor associated with sales to troubled utilities and the growing risk that providers won't get paid. There have been several lawsuits filed against both PG&E and Edison by smaller power generators who haven't been paid by California's utes. Now with this bankruptcy filing they will have no choice but to get in line with all the others. The result will likely be that NG prices for So. Cal. NG contracts will rise significantly. Amazingly I talked to a colleague in California and the sentiment among most people in California is that this is all a ploy by "Robber Baron" utilities to "jack up" prices. They are living in "Fantasy Land." Add to this picture how skittish the Canadian and Northwest Hydro power producers view this mess. Hydro power this summer is going to be in very short supply as water flow and snowpack levels are at extremely low precarious levels. Virtually all new power generation is NG-fired and we are drilling at record rates and yet we are falling behind. Storage levels are very low and with summer demand expected to be very high, the prospect of summer related problems such as rolling blackouts also remain very high. Worse yet is the prospect for power and NG prices coming this next winter. These problems are sweeping across the Western states as well not to mention the growing concern for New York and New England in general. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Vice President Dick Cheney have expressed concern that New York could face rolling blackouts as early as this summer. Dick Cheney is heading an energy research coalition but the energy crisis is now out of control. After several years of no energy policy and rabid environmentalism, the US will now have to face the music. Anyway, that's my take on the current developments regarding the energy crisis. I sit and wait for the other shoe to drop as it were.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 18:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51506)
Bankruptcy Filing Deepens Calif. Crisis
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010406/business_pge_bankruptcy_dc_7.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California's energy emergency lurched into a new and dangerous phase on Friday as Pacific Gas & Electric, the state's largest utility, suddenly declared bankruptcy and accused Gov. Gray Davis of woefully mismanaging the crisis. While officials assured Californians that the bankruptcy would have no immediate impact on power service to some 13 million people Pacific Gas & Electric supplies, it put a new question mark over the state's ability to get through the summer without more power
blackouts. This law, combined with soaring demand and a lack of new power generation plants, has created a disastrous energy crunch in California and already caused four days of rolling blackouts across the state. More blackouts are feared this summer as higher temperatures lead to increased energy demand.

Black Blade: This article alludes to the ugly picture being painted regarding the PG&E bankruptcy filing. Personally I think this is somewhat "optimistic." It will likely be worse.
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 18:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51507)
PG&E bankrupcty seen hurting small power generators
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010406/n06703791.html

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, April 6 (Reuters) - Pacific Gas & Electric's filing on Friday for bankruptcy protection threatens to drag dozens of California's small, independent power plants down the same path, putting the energy-starved state just that much closer to rolling blackouts, analysts said.

Black Blade: As I posted the smaller players will likely get hurt and suffer the same fate.
R Powell
(04/06/2001; 18:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51508)
PG+E
According to the peoples financial TV channel, we can add GE Financial Group to that list of lenders to PG+E.
GE Financial Group has been actively (aggressively) loaning for some time. Maybe too much so?
Rich
Black Blade
(04/06/2001; 18:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51509)
RE: R. Powell
You probably already know this but GE is the largest manufacturer of NG-fired turbines and there's a 3 year backlog as power providers and power plant builders have shifted into high gear. I wouldn't be too surprised to learn that they have helped to finance some of these purchases.

I am going out to partake of some good brew with a couple of friends in the NG production business tonight and I will try to get their take on this recent development. I imagine that they will look on it as job security. I guess I'm buying though. Back later - Cheers!

Black Blade
megatron
(04/06/2001; 19:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51510)
R Powell
Yesterdays stock index ramp up was the most grossly obvious heavy handed manipulation I have yet witnessed. How can the 'invisible hand' know one day ahead that 1; PG+E was going to declare bankrupcy the next day and 2; the unemployment report due was going to show double the amount of layoffs predicted. HOW HOW HOW???????????????? Who gave this info to who and said 'you better ramp this thing today or else!'
Somebody has got to fry for this crap!!!! It's getting so OBVIOUS Greenspan is either a liar or a moron. There can be no other alternatives. PERIOD. Get that idiot from behind the wheel. Yeah sure, yesterday thousands of independent 'investors' decided to rally and today this comes out?? This is crazy!!!!!!!! Where are the idiots living that believe this is any different than Japan?
canamami
(04/06/2001; 19:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51511)
What's more valuable....
(a) PG&E bonds purchased in, let's say, 1996;

(b) PG&E shares bought in 1996;

(c) The quantum of physical gold one could have purchased with the currency used to purchase the above, per 1996 prices?

Resolving the above could be an interesting intellectual exercise, depending on the variables chosen, etc. Presumably one could factor in interest or dividends paid over the period, any carrying costs (if any), taxes, possible partial recovery through the bankruptcy process, and the decline in the value of physical gold (regardless of the reasons for which it has occurred).

One undeniable advantage of physical gold, however, is that it has held at least some value, has not gone bankrupt, and still possesses the possibility of increasing in value. Although not evident in the past few years, there is an advantage to being impervious to credit risk.
Journeyman
(04/06/2001; 20:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51512)
Clearly, another government-school graduate! @ALL
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010406/business_pge_bankruptcy_dc_7.html
The article at the link above, originally posted by Black Blade -
- - of course, includes the following:

"Democratic California Senator Dianne Feinstein said the
bankruptcy filing marked a ``sad day for California,'' and vowed
to introduce legislation to force federally mandated PRICE CAPS
for the entire Western region in order to prevent more chaos ..."
-Andrew Quinn, Bankruptcy Filing Deepens Calif. Crisis, Reuters,
Friday April 6, 6:38 pm Eastern Time [Caps emphasis added. -j.]

Also according to the article, "... the utility said it owed
close to $9 billion because of California's flawed 1996 power
deregulation, which BLOCKED UTILITIES FROM PASSING ALONG
SKYROCKETING WHOLESALE POWER COSTS to consumers." [Translation:
the legislation included price caps. -j.]

Let's see. The bankruptcy of PG&E - - - and in fact the whole
California energy debacle - - - was precipitated by - - - ah,
price caps. - - - And Diane Einstein proposes to fix the problem
with, ta-da, PRICE CAPS!

Clearly another government-school graduate!

Regards,
Journeyman
ET
(04/06/2001; 21:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51513)
BB, MK, RP

Hey guys - concerning this PG&E bankruptcy; I suspect in the end that energy demand in California is going to have to fall dramatically. It seems to me that unless the Feds intervene, no electricity or gas will flow into California for fear of not being paid. I figure any bond float by the state will be a bust forcing consumers to ante up. Prices should rise to the point where demand is curtailed to meet the available supply. It appears to be over for the collectivists in California as they now lack any leverage outside of what they can convince Washington to provide. Unless Washington caves, the market will force prices high enough to the consumer of power in California to either curtail demand via conservation or via business failure or both. It's certainly ironic that the largest "server farm" ever is about to go online in NoCal using another 150,000 homes' worth of electricity!

got candles?
SHIFTY
(04/06/2001; 21:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51514)
JMB / The Partys Over
Nat King Cole TuneThe party's over
It's time to call it a day
They've burst your pretty balloon
And taken the moon away
It's time to wind up the masquerade
Just make your mind up the piper must be paid

The party's over
The candles flicker and dim
You danced and dreamed through the night
It seemed to be right just being with him
Now you must wake up, all dreams must end
Take off your makeup, the party's over
It's all over, my friend


The party's over

It's time to call it a day

Now you must wake up, all dreams must end
Take off your makeup, the party's over
It's all over, my friend

It's all over, my friend

RAP
(04/06/2001; 21:18:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51515)
Another possible problem for the power system.
http://www.spaceweather.com/index.htmlSUPERFLARE: The most powerful solar flare in at least 25 years erupted near the giant sunspot 9393 on April 2nd. Fortunately, the bulk of the "X20-class" blast was directed away from Earth. On April 4th an interplanetary shock wave generated by the explosion struck our planet's magnetosphere, but it did little more than spark a modest geomagnetic storm. See also:
Elwood
(04/06/2001; 22:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51516)
Hello, MK. Another contest?

How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?
justamereBear
(04/06/2001; 22:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51517)
R Powell 51508

That GE financial question you raised has interesting ramifications.
Why is it that some of the vulture funds specialize in buying up bonds of bankrupt companies at 10 cents on the dollar? Sometimes even over 50 cents. There can be good pickings if you are a major creditor. There are some really interesting power plays that go on in a major bankrupcy.

I see 2 very wild cards in this one. (both, to some extent, being reliant on the perceptions of the parties involved) Eminent domain being the first. Since this matter is now before the courts, this aspect is now diminished. I would think the state will be treated with the same regard as any white knight with bags of money, and the special effect of possible future regulation. If the vulture boyz think they can get the state into their back pocket, and they are good at designing contracts that take advantage of something the government has overlooked, or sees as unimportant, then they will see rich pickings. Governments tend to look to where the heat is, and ignore long term pain for short term political gain. I would think the state is available for somebodies back pocket. Unless, of course, the political view is that it is expedient to have a state owned power supply.

There are a lot of very high priced lawyers who are not going to get a lot of sleep this weekend.

The second is what the perception of the vulture boyz is vis a vis the common perception here on the forum. The economy may have run off a cliff, a la wiley coyote. One of the big factors considered in any of these kind of deals is, "What is our exit strategy? How do we get our money out?" These are inherently long term investments, i.e. it is going to be at least a couple of years and probably much more, before exit is possible. The vulture boyz start with the premise that they want a minimum of at least a risk adjusted 25% per annum return on any investment. If they see the situation deteriorating they will have to pass on this one, because there will be more, and better ones, and keeping your powder dry will be paramount.

I wish I had more time to watch the action in the senior debt next week. That would give me a much better read on what the serious money is thinking about the economy in general. However, one will still have to factor out the arbitrage action.

If my guess is correct, there will be some minor positioning, sort of a fee to learn, and be an insider, with only one, or perhaps 2, serious accumulators of senior debt. I would think much of the action would be arbitrage related.

I see I have used an expression that apparently some do not know: keeping your powder dry. In the old flintlock weapons, if your powder was not dry, you could not shoot.

j'Bear



ET
(04/06/2001; 22:15:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51518)
Randy

Hey Randy - I hope you don't mind if I say something here.

I've much enjoyed our debate the last few weeks. I sincerely hope we can continue as I believe the only way we will arrive at the truth is through conversation. My intent has never been anything other than a complete examination of the arguments put forth over the last couple of years or so.

It seems I have offended you and if that is the case I couldn't be more sorry and it certainly hasn't been my intent. My intent has been to engage you in an effort in examining the future of gold and money from all points of view. I hold deeply-held beliefs about money and society and I've attempted to convey some of these beliefs to you and others that read here. I can see I have been unsuccessful in these attempts and perhaps we can give it another go and hopefully solicit additional points of view. Above all, I hope you know my intent has been to further understanding however clumsy these efforts might appear.
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 01:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51519)
Another Point of Consideration About PG&E Bankruptcy, and Possible Answer For Elwood's Contest Question
There is one point that I had neglected to mention about the PG&E bankruptcy. The judge who presides over the Chapter 11 reorganization can in effect raise rates without consent from the PUC or the state governing officials. This also makes the PUC somewhat redundant and useless as court ordered rate increases for PG&E will ultimately translate into rate increases from other California utilities. The Grasshoppers will have no say in the matter.

There are going to be "ripple effects" throughout the California economy as well. Silicon valley's High Tech industry is energy intensive and higher costs will give these businesses a good reason to consider downsizing, relocation, and raising prices. California's economy is 14% of the nations GDP and the effects will be felt nationwide. Look for a lot of fallout on Wall Street as a result.

Tonight I was with a couple of my friends who work in NG exploration. They have no sympathy for California as I had expected. They said that it was coming for a long time. They also think that it will push the government toward developing a strategy to advance an accelerated exploration and production program. One who was an exploration geologist for uranium a few years back thinks that eventually there will be a coming boom in nuclear energy because of necessity.

For Elwood -

Elwood: How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?

Black Blade: If they are like the Kennedy's it takes 2. One to hold the light bulb, and the other to drink enough to make the room spin.

Sorry but I couldn't resist.

- Black BladeView Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 01:38:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51520)
RE: RAP msg#: 51515 A "very" Simplified Expanation of Solar Flare problems
http://www.spaceweather.com/index.html
Another possible problem for the power system.

SUPERFLARE: The most powerful solar flare in at least 25 years erupted near the giant sunspot 9393 on April 2nd. Fortunately, the bulk of the "X20-class" blast was directed away from Earth. On April 4th an interplanetary shock wave generated by the explosion struck our planet's magnetosphere, but it did little more than spark a modest geomagnetic storm.

Black Blade: This is a "very" simplistic explanation. Much depends on whether the coronal mass ejection (solar flare) is "in phase" or "out of phase." If the solar flare is "in phase" and directly strikes the Earth, then there is usually no real danger as the solar flare simply "meshes" with the earth's EM (electromagnetic) field and passes about the Earth and on into the solar system. If the solar flare is "out of phase" and strikes the Earth, then there can be many disastrous consequences ranging from electrical disruptions, damaged satellites, and disruptions in communications to possible weather changes associated with disruptions in the Earth's EM field (theoretical). The "polarity" of the solar flare and the EM field orientation as it strikes the Earth has much to do with the degree of disruption. Sorry for the simple version, however, I know that most here don't have an extensive background in astrophysics. It would be easier to describe with diagrams. Suffice it to say that if the large solar flares as we are now seeing were to strike the Earth in such a way where the EM polarity was in opposition to the Earth's EM field, then it could create a number of disasters that would severely damage the electrical grid and telecommunications. A relatively minor solar flare that was "out of phase" created quite a mess a few years ago in eastern Canada and effectively "blew out" the grid. Also, some of the disturbing global weather patterns can be attributed to the average 11 year sun spot cycle as has been recorded for nearly 400 years. However, I don't have the time to open that "can of worms" again.
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 01:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51521)
GE Chairman Jack Welch
GE Chairman jack Welch gave an interview on CNBC to Maria Bartiromo one of his employees. She asked about layoffs at GE and he responded that there were many more coming. She had that "Deer caught in the headlights" look on her face. Quite funny I thought. He went on to say that many more layoffs are coming in the US and that it is inevitable.
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 02:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51522)
Jack Welch Sees More Layoffs at GE
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010406/business_ge_welch_dc_3.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co.'s (NYSE:GE) outgoing chairman and chief executive Jack Welch sees layoffs on the horizon at the corporate giant, and warned that the weakening economy has yet to be hit by the recent wave of job cuts, he said in a television interview that aired on Friday.

Black Blade: Looks like more work for the spin meisters on wall Street. I can see that the Goldman Sachs boiler rooms will be very busy over the weekend.
Knallgold
(04/07/2001; 02:04:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51523)
Physical separates officially from Comex paper
Pandagold said Gold will go to 300 this year,and Russia will join the EU.Gold is at 300 says Russia.And talks up euro.Might even join GATA.
And Comex sells his crap at 259.

And everything is silent.Eerie.
justamereBear
(04/07/2001; 02:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51524)
Black Blade 51520

And then there is the reversing solar magnetic field, which should cause humanity some interesting times in the years to come.

j'Bear
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 03:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51525)
The Energy War Between the States


The energy crisis that we now see in California is spreading across the state's borders. The Energy War between the states is about to begin. Recently a meeting between the western states governors took place in order to iron out the regions energy problems that were exacerbated by California's unwillingness to take responsibility for its energy needs. These problems will soon crop up in Texas and Pennsylvania before long. If this sounds outrageous fine, but let me spell it all out for you.

The California economy is the World's 6th largest economy and accounts for 14% of the country's GDP. Will the US Government allow this economy to fail? Of course not. The "ripple effects" would soon become a tsunami that would bring down the US economy if left unchecked. Certainly California has itself to blame for the current sorry state of its energy crisis. They would not allow the construction of power generating facilities, denied energy companies the right to explore for oil and natural gas and allowed the energy infrastructure to fall into decay. Now the states largest utility has declared bankruptcy and filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.

Energy for the state of California is purchased from neighboring states which serve as "Energy Farms." The hydroelectric power generated in the Northwest is sold to domestic clients, however, in the summer months excess electricity is sold to California. Water levels this year are low and not expected to improve before California's peak energy demand this summer. Other states in the region (Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona) subsidize Californian rate payers and domestic rate payers have experienced increased utility rates because of Federal Judicial orders that require energy to be supplied to California. Needless to say, rate payers in the western states are not pleased. When there is no excess energy available there will be an escalation in the regions "Energy War" that is reminiscent of the "Water Wars" that ensued when the Colorado River Dam system was created.

Texas is another case where the state has built power generating facilities and fueled them with domestic natural gas supplies. The excess natural gas has been sold to energy marketers and delivered to other states via the pipeline network. More natural gas fired power plants are coming on line and more domestic natural gas will need to remain in Texas. This will put pressure on the energy needs of the surrounding region.

Pennsylvania is a shining example of how deregulation should work. They have fairly stable utility rates, however, that could change soon. New York and New England overall is facing an energy crisis that could eventually rival that of California. Other states in the region, and Pennsylvania in particular could be called on to help out the hapless New Englanders. The result will be that Pennsylvania will experience higher utility rates as well. Domestic rate payers will not be pleased with the prospect of subsidizing those who did not take responsibility for an easily foreseen energy crisis. The same case can be made for the states of Florida and Georgia as well.

The time required for exploration and production of energy supplies can take several years and many prime target areas are off-limits due to environmental concerns and nationally protected lands. This does not even account for the building of infrastructure and upgrading the power grid. There is also a serious lack of drill rigs and competent personnel needed to explore and develop oil and gas producing fields. Even if Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) becomes available in sufficient quantity, prices will be high. There is a fairly small fleet of specialized tankers and few LNG facilities in the US. There is also a growing need for domestic NG production to remain in producing countries and the surrounding regions. We have no choice but to face the fact that we have a growing energy crisis that will last several years. I look to impending legal actions among the various states as each fights over an increasingly scarce resource. Dare I say that it could get "Interesting?"

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 03:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51526)
The Energy War Between the States


The energy crisis that we now see in California is spreading across the state's borders. The Energy War between the states is about to begin. Recently a meeting between the western states governors took place in order to iron out the regions energy problems that were exacerbated by California's unwillingness to take responsibility for its energy needs. These problems will soon crop up in Texas and Pennsylvania before long. If this sounds outrageous fine, but let me spell it all out for you.

The California economy is the World's 6th largest economy and accounts for 14% of the country's GDP. Will the US Government allow this economy to fail? Of course not. The "ripple effects" would soon become a tsunami that would bring down the US economy if left unchecked. Certainly California has itself to blame for the current sorry state of its energy crisis. They would not allow the construction of power generating facilities, denied energy companies the right to explore for oil and natural gas and allowed the energy infrastructure to fall into decay. Now the states largest utility has declared bankruptcy and filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.

Energy for the state of California is purchased from neighboring states which serve as "Energy Farms." The hydroelectric power generated in the Northwest is sold to domestic clients, however, in the summer months excess electricity is sold to California. Water levels this year are low and not expected to improve before California's peak energy demand this summer. Other states in the region (Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona) subsidize Californian rate payers and domestic rate payers have experienced increased utility rates because of Federal Judicial orders that require energy to be supplied to California. Needless to say, rate payers in the western states are not pleased. When there is no excess energy available there will be an escalation in the regions "Energy War" that is reminiscent of the "Water Wars" that ensued when the Colorado River Dam system was created.

Texas is another case where the state has built power generating facilities and fueled them with domestic natural gas supplies. The excess natural gas has been sold to energy marketers and delivered to other states via the pipeline network. More natural gas fired power plants are coming on line and more domestic natural gas will need to remain in Texas. This will put pressure on the energy needs of the surrounding region.

Pennsylvania is a shining example of how deregulation should work. They have fairly stable utility rates, however, that could change soon. New York and New England overall is facing an energy crisis that could eventually rival that of California. Other states in the region, and Pennsylvania in particular could be called on to help out the hapless New Englanders. The result will be that Pennsylvania will experience higher utility rates as well. Domestic rate payers will not be pleased with the prospect of subsidizing those who did not take responsibility for an easily foreseen energy crisis. The same case can be made for the states of Florida and Georgia as well.

The time required for exploration and production of energy supplies can take several years and many prime target areas are off-limits due to environmental concerns and nationally protected lands. This does not even account for the building of infrastructure and upgrading the power grid. There is also a serious lack of drill rigs and competent personnel needed to explore and develop oil and gas producing fields. Even if Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) becomes available in sufficient quantity, prices will be high. There is a fairly small fleet of specialized tankers and few LNG facilities in the US. There is also a growing need for domestic NG production to remain in producing countries and the surrounding regions. We have no choice but to face the fact that we have a growing energy crisis that will last several years. I look to impending legal actions among the various states as each fights over an increasingly scarce resource. Dare I say that it could get "Interesting?"

- Black Blade
Canuck
(04/07/2001; 05:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51527)
California
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010406/business_pge_bankruptcy_dc_7.htmlGood call Black Blade; thanks for the 'energy' posts.

Now we have a financial problem (not that we didn't before)on top of an energy problem.

See link.
Canuck
(04/07/2001; 05:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51528)
BB
I saw the interview that Maria had with Jack Welsh. She looked like she was going to faint the entire time.
Canuck
(04/07/2001; 05:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51529)
@ Knallgold
Any 'linkage' to your 51523
Canuck
(04/07/2001; 05:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51530)
To any and all
I watched an interview last night on 'Bottomline', a sort of Canadian version of CNBC on ROBtv.

The interviewer was talking to 2 asset managers, a lady from Altamira (shades of AJC) pushing the 'oversold' theories and a man named Brian Acker of Acker Finley Inc.

Mr. Acker was still ultra-bearish citing balance sheets that are still out of whack. He also mentioned that 'goodwill' was still to be written down in many companies and the 'credit crunch' still had to dealt with.
He mentioned Nortel in the first regard and Lucent in the second.

I'm was unable to find the Acker Finley Inc. site for I was going to email Brian Acker and ask him further about his 'credit crunch' thoughts. Anyone familiar with the firm?

My thinking goes something like this; we've had the incredible investment and credit surge in the last year to two (probably more) so companies are heavily in debt. Ensuing profits were anticipated to service debt but this seems to be unlikely given the present downturn. There is also a parallel with the consumer ala mortgage refinancing.
So we have consumer and corporate debt at massive levels and soon to be unserviceable if my pondering is correct.

This downturn over the last 2 or 3 quarters and probable next 2 or 3 quarters should pop the 'credit crunch' bubble as I see it. It is very evident that the 'CNBC' monsters are now on a new roll that the corporate crash will not roll over and into the consumer who represents 2/3rds of GDP (how many times have you heard that in the last month!). I think its hogwash. This entire specticle of spend, spend, spend whether on a corporate level or an individual is one and the same. If they think that 'half' or a portfolio evaporation does not and will not affect the individual they must be dreaming in techno-color. Somewhere along the line Joe-Tech investor probably re-financed to chase the tech wreck and is hurting all the more.

I read prudentbear.com/credit.html and love the article but I find it a little repetitive and some what over my head. Have any of you guys run across 'credit' articles that you could post for a week-end read.

Thanks and have a golden week-end.

Canuck.
Canuck
(04/07/2001; 06:33:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51531)
Russia looking at Euro
http://russia.strana.ru/stories/2001/04/05/986467033/986466926.htmlCut and paste job of 4 articles:
------------------------------------

Europe hopes Russia will like its currency

Interview by Yoerg Stephan, official Bundesbank representative in Moscow.

QUESTION: As is known, Bundesbank is doing much preparatory work for the introduction of euro cash. When will the currency appear in Russia?

ANSWER: Bundesbank will start supplying bills to Russia as of December 1, 2001, so that they might be in circulation as of January 1, 2002. No commission will be charged at the point of exchange. Neither will there be exchange deadlines.

QUESTION: The euro is not yet the most stable currency in the world. Do you have any comments?

ANSWER: The European Central Bank is responsible for internal stability of the euro rate and cannot bear responsibility for the external factors, at least as long as they do not affect the inflation level. The situation may become dangerous if the euro grows too weak. This is not the case so far. As far as the internal stability is concerned, the best confirmation is the two-year period of success the euro has had, because inflation rides at less than 2% in the euro zone. This circumstance is the only important one for the European Central Bank. One ought to see developments in their right perspective. This year inflation has somewhat exceeded the 2% level because of the high oil prices. I think, the European Central Bank will take the necessary steps and the interest rate is in line with the current situation.

I think, the euro has rather good prospects. It seems to me the population of European countries will have more confidence in the new currency when they actually hold bills in their hands. So far, however, there is probably a psychological problem. New bills will appear in your country on January 1, 2002, and it will be important for the development of the European market. I think it necessary to stress that fluctuations of the euro do not exceed fluctuations of the German mark against the dollar. And this is normal. Watch the mark and you will see that it grows weaker as oil prices climb. This was so in the past and so it is now with the euro.

QUESTION: What is your forecast for the euro rate against the dollar?

ANSWER: The Bundesbank does not issue official forecasts for currency exchange rates. The main thing is that the European currency remain internally strong. Besides, Europe has the world's most independent Central Bank. And this is a thing of no small importance.


Russians advised to carry euro rather than dollars in their pockets

According to Mikhail Delyagin, Director of the Institute of Globalization Problems, Russia needs to support the euro and oust the dollar by replacing dollar reserves with it. This, he said, would also encourage the population to orient themselves toward the euro instead of the dollar. He was speaking at the Euro-2001 conference.

Dollars account for 80% of the cash Russians take with them when going abroad but only two percent of them go to countries of the dollar zone. Delyagin pointed out that the European Union has decided to raise the fee levied on exchanges of cash dollars for the euro and it is close to a decision to cut the period allowing the dollar and the euro in circulation after the introduction of the cash euro down to two months.

Although European currencies are weaker than the dollar, Russians have European cash, primarily German marks. According to Alexander Khandruyev, Vice President of the Reforma Foundation and former deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, in the coming two to three years the euro's exchange rate to the dollar will show no significant change. But he expects the euro to show growth trends in the medium- and long term.

Among other things, the process will be assisted by a narrower gap between interest rates in the United States, Japan and Europe. Besides, experts expect the rate of inflation in Europe to be lower than in the United States. (1.7% and 2.1% respectively). The cash euro will have a growing impact on the economies of EU countries and grow stronger in the process as it becomes more attractive than the dollar.

Russia to bring China closer to Europe
Russia must in the very near future shore up its stand as a Eurasian transportation corridor and support the zone for strengthening the euro, declared the Director of the Institute on Problems of Globalization, Mikhail Delyagin, at the Euro-2001Conference on April 5. According to him, if Russia fails to cope with this task that does not require substantial expenditures, the question concerning Russia's integration in the world economy may be left hanging in midair.

Delyagin pointed out that according to Russian government experts, the cost of transporting one container of freight from Europe to Asia via Russia's territory is approximately $1,200-$2,000 and covers a time period of 12 days. At the moment, transportation of the same freight by sea costs $3,800 and lasts for 30 days. "This is a substantial advantage for Russia and it is necessary to make use of that advantage," Delyagin emphasized.

The idea of a transcontinental bridge is not new. But in the 1990s Russia encountered a strong competitor - China, after that country modernized the Trans-China Railway.

In April 1998, the U.S. Senate adopted a law on the Great Silk Route strategy. In particular, this legislation envisages U.S. economic assistance to countries lying along the Great Silk Route. This project is aimed at bringing the countries of Southeast Asia to Europe bypassing Russia, i.e., through the Central Asian states.

Today, Delyagin argues, Russia must not miss its chance and make use of the cooling in American-Chinese relations in order to restore its interests and develop transport cooperation with China.

In the meantime, Spanish news agency EFE stated directly on April 5 that Europe and Russia were using the U.S.-Chinese conflict to dislodge the United States from its leading positions in the region. An EU diplomat, who wished to remain unnamed, told EFE that the tone of the new U.S. Administration's dialogue with China would force China to seek greater rapprochement with Europe and Russia. For its part, Europe was also willing to consolidate its foothold in the Asian region.

Russia likewise intends to use the crisis in its interests, becoming the main Chinese partner, EFE said. PRC Chairman Jiang Zemin plans to pay a visit to Moscow in mid-July, during which he will have a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. As is expected, the visit will result in the signing of a Chinese-Russian agreement aimed at reducing the U.S. influence in the international arena.

Meanwhile, a powerful transcontinental bridge between Asia and Europe may prove sad news for the U.S. currency. An eastern expansion of the euro zone is inevitable as is the waning of the Swiss currency, which the Russian railways have traditionally used in international settlements.


Russia is sizing up the European currency

On April 5, Moscow is hosting Euro-2001 Conference devoted to the introduction of euro cash, which has been organized by Switzerland-based Sovereign Group with support from the Russian Bank Association, the Academy of People's Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, and the International Moscow Currency Exchange. The Conference is attended by prominent Russian and Western financiers, economists and bankers, as well as representatives of the Central Bank of Russia, the Finance Ministry, the State Duma, commercial banks, and foreign trade companies.

The introduction of euro cash is more than a topical matter for Russia. The problem is not only that all foreign economic settlements, for example, for railroad shipments, are in Swiss francs and soon it will be necessary to switch over to euros. The Conference discusses a range of problems, like what the introduction of euro cash will do to Russia's competitiveness; work in the EU capital market after the euro is in (state and corporate debts, stock, forward markets); legal regulation of euro-priced export-import operations; the fight against Swiss-based money laundering; the U.S. crisis and the euro-zone economy; forecasts for the euro exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and many others.

Even physical persons are showing an increased interest in the behavior of the European currency. Given the slowing down of the U.S. economy, the interest has become particularly pronounced during the recent crisis spiral in the world financial markets. The more so that starting from the next year Russian citizens will have an opportunity to buy euros.

The Moscow Conference is taking place against the background of an unstable euro. But for the Russian economy the slide in the exchange rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar may be regarded as a quite positive tendency. Russian exports are mostly priced in dollars while imports are predominantly euro-priced and therefore the drop in the euro rate has led to the real strengthening of the ruble. Many economists, as, for example, director of the Institute of the Transitional Economy, Yegor Gaidar, predict that within the next five years the euro rate will be $1-1.1 for a euro. Leaps from 80 to 130 cents for one euro are not excluded either.
tedw
(04/07/2001; 06:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51532)
Day 7
http://www.usagold.com
Day 7

Dont spend any of your USA GOLD to buy chineses products.


Spread the word-Boycott China
USAGOLD
(04/07/2001; 07:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51533)
BB, Elwood. . . .
BB. . . .$9 billion ain't hay. And if Edison goes under, you can more than likely double that number. What you describe is what I suspected. Thanks. I think the Bush administration understands that we are talking about a long term problem that can't be solved with a one-time bailout package like the S&L's. The reports that other parts of the country can experience similar problems for essentially the same reasons is partiuclarly troubling. I can see why the Bush administration threw their hands up on this one and said,"Hey, this is your problem." But you know what, the feds are going to be dragged kicking and screaming into this one whether they like it or not. The only weapon available at the moment is the Fed and its open checkbook. I got a call from one of my Fed Watcher friends in New York yesterday and he was animated about the growth in the money supply (up $66 billion last week) -- This was before the PG&E announcment. You gotta think that Greenspan was aware of this and being pressured for help long before the public found out about this. Bank of America, et al certainly knew about it. The creditor is always the first to know. Might be where much that liquidity Randy keeps telling us about is going. Will Ravi Batra end up being the one who's right ---- an inflationary depression??? I shudder to think.

On the suggestion by your friend that California might go nuclear: Can you feature that occurring in a state where the greenies successfully stymied non-nuclear power plant construction? I remember years ago, during the last energy crisis, France decided to go nuclear and built their power plants on the German border, using the prevailing westerlies to their advantage. I'm sure California will glady take the BTUs but suggest that the plants be built downwind -- someplace like Idaho or Utah with a gaurantee that the energy flows West.

Elwood. . . ..I like your contest.

Q: How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?

A: Who needs a light bulb?

lamprey_65
(04/07/2001; 07:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51534)
Gold Weekly
http://www.bookmarkusa.com/goldweekly.jpg*Warning* Before I begin, let me say there is bad data at the link above...this is why I haven't been posting the charts lately. The problems -

1. Four weeks ago was NOT a confirm above the resistance line.
2. Six weeks ago the tail on the candlestick is way too long...bad trade(s) never cleaned on Worden's.

OK, now on to the obvious...

Notice how we once again managed to close within the wedge, but --

I show the wedge dying THIS WEEK. It's done, toast, fini, kaput.

Normally I would expect a nice rally this coming week after the failed breakdown (another failed breakdown!!), but COMEX expiration is next Friday. So,

My guess is the week after next.
tedw
(04/07/2001; 07:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51535)
2 Americas
http://www.usagold.com2 AMERICAS

There are 2 Americas. Crazy, you say, let me explain. One America is the descendents of Thomas Jefferson, George Washingtion, Patrick Henry, and Abraham Lincoln. They believe in freedom,free enterpise, and the dignity and rights of the individual.They believe in opportunity and the freedom to try and suceed and even fail. They claim the heritage passed to them by these great Americans and others. They believe in individual liberty. They claim the rights written in the Constitution.These Americans are everywhere.

But there is another Amerika. It is the Amerika that believes that individual rights should be sacrificed. It is the Amerika that believes we need welfare to protect us from our foolishness, it is the Amerika that believes Social Security will provide for our future, and it is the Amerika that believes in an Income |Tax to make sure that those who have will provide for those who have not. It is the Amerika that beilieves it is too dangerous for individuals to have guns. These Amerikans are everywhere to.

April 15 is the time that this divide between the 2 Americas becomes most apparent. Amerikans demand that Americans go to the post office with their "money "surrendering their rights as they go: it is madatory yet voluntary. And many, not yet sure whether they are Amerikans or Americans, yield to the pressure but inside � knowing that something is not quite right and that something has been lost. And it is the time Americans remind Amerikans of the shackle on their leg, and remind them of what they once were.

The visions clash. The Amerika that Amerikans want does not fit into the vision that Americans had over 200 years ago.A square vision which does not fit into the round hole of the Constitution.

May the descendents of the Sons and Daughters of Liberty rise up and take back America from Amerikans.

Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/07/2001; 08:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51536)
Black Blade @ # 51519
Perspectives
Sir BB

I have read on this forum on several occasions that California is the sixth largest economy in the world.

An excerpt from your post follows:

"�California's economy is 14% of the nations GDP�"

HBM thoughts:

When I read your post, your number 14% immediately passed through my left ear (small brain) and came out the other ear with a different way of stating the 14%. Because (14% and (1/7th) are roughly equivalent, my mental rephrase of your statement became: California's economy is 1/7th of the nations GDP.

At first I thought, "Houston, we have a math problem: - How can California be 1/6th of the worlds economy and only 1/7th of the U.S. economy? That would make the U.S. economy larger than the world economy. Such a postulation being absurd I shuddered to think that maybe we on the USAGOLD forum had fallen off the same cliff as the CNBC talking heads; the cliff from which the descent is so far and so fast that one would be willing to say anything to avoid facing the reality there may be a hard surface somewhere below. Mercy, I say, mercy please."

Then patience to prevent that murmur soon replied: "Now Billy Mitchell, you must ponder this a bit; you must realize that to say that to say that the California economy is the sixth largest in the world does not mean that the California economy is 1/6th of the world's economy."

Thus I began to relax. The math is not impossible after all. The mental pain began to subside at first but then something began to gnaw at my brain and reality began to set in. "This worse than I imagined":

"If California were 1/7th of the U.S. economy and also the 6th largest economy in the world, these two facts alone would render the economies of all but four other nations insignificant. Insignificant I say at least in terms of currency and debt money relationships. If the U.S. economy is the largest in the world and California is the sixth largest then there can be only four other nations in the world with a larger economy than California.

Many questions arise. Who are those four other nations? With whom are these four other nations aligned? Is there an attempt to manage a "balance of power" to prevent the triggering of an economic war by a simple economic or political event like the sinking of an economic Lusitania?

If the U.S. economy is so large that 1/7th of it is exceeded in size by only four other nations of the world, then the world economy is either strangely small or the U.S. economy is a lumbering giant, so huge and cumbersome that if the giant were to stumble and fall there would be nothing but destruction in its path. There would be no hope of a nice, gradual transition of power. A world of total economic chaos would usher in a world of total political chaos. The world would beg for a charismatic leader to come forward to promise them hope. This world leader would not need solutions to take over. All he would need would a �mouth smoother than oil�. All he would need would be the ability to communicate hope to the world. Just to promise destitute folk some relief from the economic pain would be enough.

When I consider this I cannot help but think of Nazi Germany and the leader they worshipped. He promised destitute folk relief from the economic pain. Should the 'lumbering giant' stumble and fall, the new world leader could easily turn out to be a demon along the lines of Adolph Hitler. I find the nature of such an one vividly described in the following passage from the Bible, Proverbs 5:1-13 KJV.

"My son attend unto my wisdom and bow thine ear to understanding: that thou mayest regard discretion, and that thy lips may keep knowledge. For the lips of a strange woman drop as an honeycomb, and her mouth is smoother than oil: But her end is bitter as wormwood and sharp as a twoedged sword. Her feet go down to death, her steps take hold on hell. Lest thou shouldest ponder the path of life, her ways are moveable, thou canst not know them. Here me now therefore, O ye children, and depart not from the words of my mouth. Remove thy way far from her and come not nigh to the door of her house: Lest thou give thine honor unto others and thy years unto the cruel: Lest strangers be filled with THY WEALTH, and thy labours be in the house of a stranger; And thou morn at the last, when thy flesh and body is consumed, And say, How have I hated instruction, and my heart despised reproof; and have not obeyed the voice of my teachers, nor inclined mine ear to them that instructed me!"

This new world leader, this character is also clearly described in the book of Daniel::

"And in his estate shall stand up a VILE person, to whom they shall not give the honor of the kingdom: but he shall come in PEACEABLY, and obtain the kingdom by FLATTERIES."(Daniel 11:21)

"And after the league made with him, he shall work DECEITFULLY: for he shall come up and be strong with a small people." (Daniel 11:23)

"And the king shall do according to his will; and he shall exalt himself, and magnify himself above every god, and shall speak marvelous things against the God of gods, and shall prosper till the indignation be accomplished; for that that is determined shall be done." (Daniel 11:36)

I said to myself, "Self, you had better get you some more of that physical, just in case!

HBM
Journeyman
(04/07/2001; 08:25:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51537)
Death Wish IV @ALL

The Republicans must have a death wish. Or deep-cover Democratic
strategists. One of the first acts passed after the Contract
With America Republican victory was to eliminate funding for
school-lunches.

Now the current Republican Admin. first wants to allow more
arsenic in drinking water and then scrap testing school-lunch
hamburger for salmonella!!

They're on solid scientific ground - - - for your own burger
eat'n peace of mind, for example, don't look up the _traditional_
USDA standards for salmonella in burger - - - just hope they cook
your next Big-Mac thoroughly.

It's kind of heartening, actually, to see them do the right
thing, namely get government and our stolen money out of
everything - - - it's just that, as politicians, how could they
not know how these cuts would play in the media? And leave them
for elimination until last. In favor of things with much bigger
subsidies, say corporate welfare, etc. Or things that would play
better. Like eliminating the program to fund the remodeling of
Pubs in Ireland to attract American tourists. Or $225 toilet
seats.

Or do Republicans do this on purpose to discredit the whole idea
of cutting government spending?

Or is it a death-wish? Or deep-cover Democratic strategists?

Regards,
Journeyman
Journeyman
(04/07/2001; 08:35:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51538)
Hear, hear!! @tedw (4/7/2001; 7:56:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 51535)

Regards,
J.
Journeyman
(04/07/2001; 08:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51539)
Boy is that-all thought provoking!! @USAGOLD msg#: 51533

By the way, it takes ALL California legislators: 1 to change the bulb, the rest to crank the generators.

Regards,
J.
auspec
(04/07/2001; 08:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51540)
tedw Message # 51535
Indeed!Thank you, tedw, for elegantly stating that the Constitution holds trump over the Union! The Amerikans hold no respect for the Constitution and will see that "divided we fall".
auspec
(04/07/2001; 09:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51541)
Bel-gian{t}
Sir Belgian, many thanks for your post #51487 and your euro-spective, much appreciated. Still trying to figure out why you kept referring to the Titanic in relationship to the Dollar. Haven't you heard, from the MAN, that this debt is going to be retired in the far future?? :>}
Your points in regards to the unfathomable debt, SYNYTHETIC entities, and stock market excesses all point to a very bad ending, granted. It still seems that a lot can go right {be manipulated} between here and there. These guys only wag the dog over sex scandals, not currencies, right?
Your euro perceptions are masterful and the writing is clearly on the wall. Many Biblical prophesies see what is taking shape as "The Revived Roman Empire" because the Treaty of Rome initiated this union. I have watched it unfold for about 10 years, and you many more. A clear fascination.
Yes, we carry *gold* because we know this will end badly. That is really enough to know in spite of not knowing how badly or when! Curious minds still dig deeper.
My "final answer": It will end the way it is deemed to end. Likely with the loss of remaining sovereignty of these Divided {People} States of America, and the fall of the US Constitution. The Dollar is secondary to this goal.
Can you provide details of the end stages of the reign of the British Pound Sterling? Of course, this was not a synthetic fiat currency as current ones are, so the situations are not the same. Current "DEBT LOADING has no precedent, that IS the overriding factor, thank you. Did the fall of the Pound precede the fall of the British Empire or vice versa? Debt levels?
Let's look for the "common ground", shall we? "Waiter, I believe we'll have the 'BAD ENDING'".
The end.
Knallgold
(04/07/2001; 10:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51542)
Canuck, see yesterdays post #51482 for the revaluation
I hope its no April joke...

Russia values gold at $300 oz
Russian central bank gold stocks up on April 1


MOSCOW, April 6 (Reuters) - The value of gold reserves held by Russia's central bank rose by $13 million to $3.767
billion on April 1 from $3.754 billion on March 1, the central bank said in a statement on its Internet site on Friday.

The central bank officially values its gold reserves at $300 per troy ounce.

The bank's website (www.cbr.ru) said total gold and foreign exchange reserves rose to $29.709 billion on April 1 from
$28.345 billion on March 1.

The central bank's reserves include gold, foreign currency and Special Drawing Rights, an international reserve asset that is
essentially a currency of the International Monetary Fund.
Peter Asher
(04/07/2001; 10:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51543)
None of my best friends are Californians

And non of my daughters has married one, but in all fairness, they should have ther say too. The following just came in via the forward E-mail line.

>Subject: Angry Californians

>America has engaged in some finger wagging lately because California
>doesn't have enough electricity to meet its needs. The rest of the
country
>(including George W. Bush's energy secretary Spencer Abraham, who
wants
>Californians to suffer through blackouts as justification for drilling
for
>oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) seems to be just fine
with
>letting Californians dangle in the breeze without enough power to meet
>their needs. They laugh at Californians' frivolity.
>
>Well, everybody. Here's how it really is:
>
>California ranks 48th in the nation in power consumed per person.
>California grows more than half the nation's fruit, nuts and
vegetables.
>We're keeping them. We need something to eat when the power goes out.
We
>grow 99 percent or more of the nation's almonds, artichokes, dates,
figs,
>Kiwi fruit, olives, persimmons, pistachios, prunes, raisins and
walnuts.
>Hope you won't miss them.
>
>California is the nation's number one dairy state. We're keeping our
dairy
>products. We'll need plenty of fresh ones since our refrigerators
can't be
>relied upon. Got milk?
>
>We Californians are gonna keep all our high-tech software in state.
Silicon
>Valley is ours, after all. Without enough electricity, which you're
>apparently keeping for yourselves, we just plain don't have enough
software
>to spare.
>
>We're keeping all our airplanes. California builds a good percentage
of the
>commercial airliners available to fly you people to where you want to
go.
>When yours wear out, you'd better hope Boeing's Washington plant can
keep
>you supplied. There isn't enough electricity here to allow us to
export any
>more planes than we need ourselves.
>
>And while we're at it, we're keeping all our high- tech aerospace
stuff,
>too, like the sophisticated weapons systems that let you sleep at
night,
>not worried you might wake up under the rule of some foreign kook.
Oh,
>yeah, and if you want to make a long-distance call, remember where the
>satellite components and tracking systems come from. Maybe you could
get
>back in the habit of writing letters.
>
>Want to see a blockbuster movie this weekend? Come to California. We
make
>them here. Since we'll now have to make them with our own electricity,
>we're keeping them. Even if we shot them somewhere else, the labs,
printing
>facilities, editing facilities, and sound facilities are all here.
>
>Want some nice domestic wine? We produce over 17 million gallons per
year.
>We'll need all of it to drown our sorrows when we think about the fact
that
>no matter how many California products we export to make the rest of
>America's lives better, America can't see its way clear to help us out
with
>a little electricity. You can no longer have any of our wine.
>
>You all complain that we don't build enough power plants. Well, you
don't
>grow enough food, write enough software, make enough movies, build
enough
>airplanes and defense systems or make enough wine.
>
>This is your last warning, America. Lighten (us) up before it's too
late.
>
>Love,
>The Californians


Knallgold
(04/07/2001; 10:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51544)
BOR reserves
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/statistics/credit_statistics/print.asp?file=inter_res_01_e.htm#weekCouldn't find the valuation number.But it is a good place to surf here.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/

particularly speech by Welteke:

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/today/publications_reports/print.asp?file=Speech_DBP.htm
Tree in the Forest
(04/07/2001; 11:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51545)
Peter Asher, Elwood - The Contest
Peter: Sounds like fighting words. Guess they want to secede. Well, here's our answer:
How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?
Five. One to screw in the bulb, four to screw the rest of us.
Old Yeller
(04/07/2001; 11:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51546)
Canuck;#51530
http://www.dismal.com/economy/releases/release_2k.asp?r=usa_credit
This is the latest on the consumer side of the equation.We are well aware of how much weight the consumer has on GDP,as well as the hopes pinned on the consumer as the engine of recovery.Looks like some are getting painfully stretched with retrenchment in the future.

I read the Credit Bubble Bulletin faithfully every Friday.I agree with some of your thoughts on it's length and the fact that Doug Noland often goes off on tangents that border on the theoretical.In other words,it is often too fuzzy.One snippet of this week's version,however'sure caught my attention.In his discussion of the PGE bankruptcy filing he had this to say:

"This is now very much a systemic financial crisis."

No qualifiers or fuzziness there,the end game looms.
JMB
(04/07/2001; 11:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51547)
JOURNEYMAN
The added arsenic in our drinking water will actually improve not only the taste but also the cooling of our internal liquids. It works kinda like anti-freeze. Keeps us cool in the summer and nice and toasty in the winter.

As I'm sure you know, one of Bubba's last dirty deeds was to change the arsenic restrictions of our drinking water. Three days left in his pathetic final term of office and he pulls this stunt, the jerk! He knew about the shortage of electricity. He knew our air conditioners wouldn't be working. He also knew about the natural gas shortage and what was going to happen next winter.

Don't worry, be happy....W has everything covered. He's the man with the plan. Cheers....hic...
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 11:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51548)
RE: USAGOLD and Nuclear Power
My old Uranium geologist friend may have been expressing "wishful thinking" and a longing for the "good old days" of uranium exploration. California has a history of operating nuclear power plants with mixed results. Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant on the coast is still in operation, however, it reportedly sits atop an earthquake fault. Then their is the bungled Rancho Seco nuclear power plant near Sacramento that never went into full operation because of building design errors and cost overruns. Today it would be almost impossible to build a nuclear power plant in California, especially after the somewhat minor core meltdown at Three mile Island, the massive disaster at Chernobyl, and extreme environmental opposition. The French and Japanese have been able to successfully operate nuclear power plants without any serious problems. I would suspect that any construction of new nuclear power plants for the benefit of California, they would have to be built out of state.

The political might of California could force the issue building nuclear energy farms in other states. There is the DOE Hanford facility in Washington state, The DOE Idaho National Engineering Labs (INEL) in Idaho, and DOE Rocky Flats facility in Colorado where there has been research into nuclear power and fuel rod refurbishing facilities (though Hanford and Rocky Flats are largely dismantled). At least the environmental "damage" has been done over the course of several decades and some may reconsider the suitability of these sites for further use. There is also the proposed low-level nuclear waste facility at Yucca Mountain near Mercury, Nevada. It would not be inconceivable that someday nuclear power plants may be approved for construction in the western US again. However, it has been about 25 years since construction permits for nuclear power plants have been issued. The environmentalists would still be opposed to any new nuclear power plant construction anywhere, however, the opposition would not be as great if these facilities were constructed outside of California. It is the "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) type of opposition. The opposition is even intense in politically conservative regions as well. Over the last few years, the Paiute Indian Reservation in Skull Valley, Utah has expressed an interest in constructing a temporary low-level nuclear waste storage facility as a "pass-through" facility until Yucca Mountain is ready. The Republican Governor of Utah Mike Leavitt (sp) is opposed and has effectively isolated the reservation with orders restricting the transportation of nuclear waste on state roads. Many of the tribe are also in opposition to the proposal. Interesting since the proposed site is adjacent to the old Thiokol rocket testing site and the US Army Biological and Chemical warfare testing site at Dugway Proving Grounds where open air testing was conducted over several decades. You may recall the incident where a herd of sheep were "accidentally" affected by nerve gas in the late 1960's.

The opposition to nuclear power plants would be intense no matter the political orientation of the region involved. I just don't see any other alternative and I think that the smaller politically weaker states will likely have to acquiesce to the desires and needs of the larger politically powerful states (in this case California). Of course most people do not understand nuclear power and they have visions of nuclear blasts and radioactive steam clouds in their back yards resulting in two-headed, three-armed and three-eyed babies being born. The technology for safe nuclear power plant construction and operation is possible but requires tight controls. Three Mile Island came close to being a clear disaster as a "hydrogen bubble" was forming in the containment building. However, the containment building did the job as designed. The overriding problem for Three Mile Island was the lack of training of personnel and the design of the control systems where the problem was difficult to identify. Surprisingly that problem was due to the design requirements forced on the facility by the Nuclear Power Regulatory Commission. The Chernobyl disaster was in a "Graphite" core design facility that no one in the world but the old communist states allowed to be built. Now we have calls from the secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham and Vice President Dick Cheney to consider new nuclear power plant construction. Considering the inability to produce sufficient NG and oil for power generation, and the clean air act that severely restricts the increased use of coal, I suspect that increased use of nuclear energy is inevitable.

Your point about the nuclear power plants built by France along the German border is well taken. There is no love lost considering the history of the region. When the Berlin Wall was coming down and the two Germanys were about to be reunited, I recall the French saying: "Two Germanys are good, Three Germanys would be better."

- Black Blade
justamereBear
(04/07/2001; 11:40:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51549)
Peter Asher

One thing these type of missives often fail to address is the wee fact that one could pay the going rate, and supply would likely be more plentiful.

j'Bear

USAGOLD
(04/07/2001; 11:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51550)
Attention Mr. Gresham: Hashimoto Watch
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010406/wl/japan_politics_14.htmlBetween pruning projects and just before the Masters, I found this digging around for more systemic risk information. (Plenty of gardening to do this Spring) This from Associated Press on the situation in Japan:

"TOKYO (AP) - Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori told his Cabinet on Friday that he would step down,
signaling the end of one of Japan's most unpopular governments since the end of World War II. . . . . The apparent front-runner to replace Mori is former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who served from 1996 to
1998...." 4/6/01

His now famous quote as you reposted it a month or so ago:


"Our American friends were paying little attention to maintaining the value of the U.S. dollar as an international key currency, and we were tempted to sell off (bond holdings). In terms of funds, it is true that we have not really made the right choice, shall I say, or advantageous choice. By selling Treasury bonds, we might increase our gold holdings. That is an option we had. Among countries around the world, there are many who hold their foreign currency reserves in the form of U.S. Treasury bonds. As long as they continue to maintain the U.S. government bonds -- even when the U.S. dollar is weakening relatively � it is because these countries are holding onto these government bonds that the U.S. economy is being maintained. Many people, in fact, don't realize this. `I hope the U.S. will engage in efforts and cooperation to maintain exchange stability so that we will not succumb to this temptation to sell off government bonds and switch our foreign reserves to gold." --- Former Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto, 6/97
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 12:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51551)
Bank Stocks Fall After PG&E Filing
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010406/business_financial_banks_dc_5.htmlSnippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of major U.S. banks were down on Friday after California utility PG&E Corp.'s (NYSE:PCG) Pacific Gas and Electric Co. unit filed for bankruptcy protection, owing about $9 billion to creditors, including billions in unrepaid loans from banks.

Black Blade: It didn't take long. The inevitable consequence of the filing is widening to the financial sector. Monday could get - here I go again - "Interesting."
Old Yeller
(04/07/2001; 12:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51552)
More on debt woes
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
I can't remember if this has been posted here,but the latter half of the commentary has some very insightful comments and statistics on the current debt "problem".
Black Blade
(04/07/2001; 12:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51553)
Experts: PG&E 1st Salvo in Legal Battle
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010407/business_california_scenarios_dc.html

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Could a federal judge override California authorities by raising electricity rates for the state's energy-hungry consumers? A section of the 1978 federal bankruptcy law provides that unless utilities have assurance that they will be paid, they can withhold services to a failed company. Now power generation companies could turn that section of the law against PG&E, claiming status as utilities for themselves as a kind of trump card in negotiations, said Kenneth Klee, a partner in the law firm Klee, Touchin, Bogdanoff & Stern.

Black Blade: Looks as if the rate payer in California will probably have no choice now. Utility rates are going much higher. The question is how well will the California economy fare under sharply higher energy costs and more importantly how will the economy of the entire US weather the energy crisis storm.

Gotta go for a couple of days. It's that time of year - Turkey season - and a friend just informed me that he has seen some birds on his land. I'm off to "whack some turkeys." Cheers!
slingshot
(04/07/2001; 12:58:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51554)
Peter Asher Msg # 51543
Kalifonia E-MailRead your list of items California supplies to the country and was informative. Though not one item listed I need for my survival. You, being from the Golden State made no mention of Gold and in so, confirms the Kalifornians mindset.Best described by the Grasshopper who danced and played all summer. Drink your wine and eat your nuts. The Party's Over!
I do not want to sound condensending. Just that I feel Your Reality is looking you straight in the face.
Thank you Peter Asher for sharing your E-mail with us.This is an example of the beginning. Wait till the Hard Times set in. GOT GOLD?
Slingshot
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/07/2001; 13:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51555)
tedw @ # 51535 - America and Amerika
sir,

Thou hast said.

Very respectfully,

HBM
Belgian
(04/07/2001; 14:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51556)
AUSPEC-tator
Sorry, haven't the Pound decay's details. But the common ground with the dollar was its (would be) world domination.
To be compared with the dollar-empire. Europeans had this very strong and deep perception of an unvincable worldcurrency, that was the British Pound. Of course, I am hoping it had something (or everything) to do with the C. Rhodes origins and the South African Gold ?
When the empire crumbled and America grew as nrw epicentre, the pound found refuge in the dollar's schadow. Maybe a similar story is in the make for the Euro...the new born child.

It might be interesting to find out the degree of "unproductiviness" of dollar-debt against euro-debt.
Because both debts are of a different nature. Because there are many gradations in debt : good and productive - bad - total unproductive. Much of the european (welfare) debt is recycled through very high taxing. Much of the debt is to be found on private savings-accounts. As if the majority of (welfare) citizens feel somewhat quilty (happy) of having accumulated state-community money for nothing. A possible explanation for the high savings-rate. This in sharp contrast with the dollar-producers.

The overvaluation of the dollar is perhaps not the result of the nominal amount of debt but rather the extreme bad quality of that debt. Debt that is not allowed to default cost what it may cost. Continious debt roll-over, with no way out. This roll-over is causing the currency erosion nightmare. The awakening is 100% with shock. This awakening is not at wake up time but at any given moment in the middle of the night.

The major problem for the euro is the lack of promotionnal qualities of the semi-divided EMU. I hope they will use the gold-argument at the right moment. It cannot be used today, without shocking the dollar. And certainly not whilst CBs are still selling and shout about each sale. But if Hashimotto has already used the gold-argument in '97...why wouldn't the europeans not dare to come up with it at the right moment ? Is the WA, maybe a Hashimotto in disquise ?
There must also be an explanation why non europeans, subscribed the WA. Mutual interests up until the conflict you mentionned. Political Metal...remember !

POG will reach approx. 300$ at dollar/euro parity.
It only takes another 15% dollar decline (versus euro) to reach the "all or nothing" level of 350$ !
The REAL REVALUATION of Gold does not necesarry need a crashing dollar. Once POG is liberated from that past 21 year desastrous perception...it can revalue against the past global expansion, with or without a dollar crash.
Up until now, everything has been organised to prevent any eye-opener to pop up. Later we might probably accept the reasons why it has been orchestrated. Oucchhhgggg. I'm scared.

Old Yeller
(04/07/2001; 15:14:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51557)
The real Matrix?
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm
Yikes,I'm hardly a paranoid gloom and doomer but this looks pretty scary.Hopefully,the California crisis will lead to increased awareness of sustainable energy use.

Thanks to Jerry Russell at prubear forum for the link.
Elwood
(04/07/2001; 15:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51558)
Earth to "The Californians"
Hey, you forgot one. You also are the world's leading bullsh*t producer, but maybe you just meant to include that in the "fruit and nuts" category. Feel free to keep it all. We'll find someone else who is willing to pay market rates for our electricity.

By the way, how do you "grow" prunes and raisins? I've never heard of a raisin farmer. What's the deal there?

As to the aircraft, don't worry. Once the lights go out they'll all be filled to overflowing with people on a one-way trip to the real world. So, if you expect to keep your Silicon Valley leadership, someone better grab Gray Davis and get him in a Visual Basic class fast.

How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?
*******
Please excuse the off-topic post. Just having a chuckle while enjoying these historically low gold prices.
slingshot
(04/07/2001; 15:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51559)
ELWOOD MSG# 51558
You didn't know? California has the highest number of prune and raisin pickers in the world. They also confuse pretzel nuggets with Gold Nuggets.
Slingshot
Parsifal
(04/07/2001; 16:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51560)
Belgian, msg# 51556, Washington Accords

We can entertain many different thoughts in an effort to make more sense of the Washington Accords. I do not claim to have answers, but let's try these thoughts.

The Washington Accords can be seen to be like a group of bullies who promise to only terrorize the weaklings twice a week instead of every day. In addition, the terrorization will be done with quotas, with a schedule, and in an orderly fashion. The weaklings will be terrorized in a much kinder, gentler way.

There now! Give those Washington Accords bullies big hugs. They are really on our side, no?

Lafisrap
Mr Gresham
(04/07/2001; 17:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51561)
USAGold, Belgian, Lamprey
MK -- yes, Japan. The T-bonds are the kick-out-the-jammies belweather of crisis. Why Japan has been nice enough to hold on for so long? Thinking they can win the musical chairs game, when most of the chairs have been already removed? An offer they couldn't refuse -- (until now, when there's nothing left to lose?)

In economics, there's statistics -- and there's institutions. We tend to know less about the internals of the institutions (they hide 'em well) and they pop when there's nothing left to hide. (If you've ever been shown to the office door of your job disappearing at a bankrupting company under uniformed guard, you'll know what I mean.)

If ever there were a few new LTCMs moving toward center stage, it's now. And once one crisis pops, there's less onus on those who reveal their little piece of the breakdown puzzle. "You go first..." "No, you." "No, you."

Belgian -- your posts get better and better. FOA does not give us the steps that may go on in Europe. It may catapult into his scenarios, but there are many milder outcomes that will give us a POG-leap anyway, and you describe those well.

Yes -- we would do well to study the British Pound loss of status as the predecessor to USD dethronement. It's the nearest example, and I'm surprised FOA hasn't referred to it very much, if at all. We could, of course, do our own homework in researching and sharing it.

Lamprey -- thanks for the link yesterday to the Dow Crash watcher site, whatever the name was.

Whoooo -- I was so sleepy -- about to nap -- and now the brain is stimulatin' itself awake around you guys again -- still can't take the time out from taxes to do a full reading, which I fell off from around the time of those wonderful contest entries. Hope I can catch up...
Rockgrabber
(04/07/2001; 17:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 51562)
I am from CALIFORNIA
I love using energy. I look at the rest of the states as deep down wanting to be like California. You love us. We make your trends for you. Just like high energy rates, or clothes. You look to us for your thoughts. Even though our thoughts are towards vanitity. The worlds are toward the same thoughts just a bit behind. You will all catch up. Are you disapointed you cannot pay higher rates? Dont worry you will catch up. EVERYBODY LOOKS TOWARDS CALIFORNIA FOR THEIR TRENDS, SO WILL YOU. HAHAHAH
slingshot
(04/07/2001; 18:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51563)
Rockgrabber Msg#51562
Hello Rockgrabber. It is nice to see a Californian come forth and defend his home state. You speak the truth when you say you are the TREND SETTERS. Trend setting is good for our country cause from one trend others spin off and ideas are exchanged. The past few years the trend from California are ones of Goverment intrusion and socialism. Hence my
acquisition of GOLD. I do not know how long you have been to this forum, but, if you stay here long enough you sure learn plenty. If only we could set the trend for buying gold without some major disaster.
Slingshot
VanRip
(04/07/2001; 20:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51564)
Slingshot
What gave you the idea that Peter Asher was from California? I believe he lives in Oregon and was just posting an email he had received. Didn't you read the first three lines of his post?
Rockgrabber
(04/07/2001; 20:40:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51565)
Slingshot
eheehHWEHWWH.... Guess what, us here in California are not near smart enough to but GOLD. We look to others to provide us everyhing we need. Like the good ol U.S.. We play all day!! Black Blade will tell ya. eheheh, Sorry. I find this all most fascinating. Everyone may laugh now, but if you are in the U.S., you might as well eventually be in California. We will get it going for ya! We have plenty of good ol fiat bucks in our pockets. Especialy when we get more credit(we love that stuff)((we never have to pay it back it seems)). Good ol US of A, come to California where the living is easy. HAHAHA AT least for now. tHINGS SURE DO change dont they. AT THE CURRENT MOMMENT WE HAVE A CHANCE TO BUT GOLD AT A PRICE NOWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD CAN THET
YBUY AS EASY AS US
Al Fulchino
(04/07/2001; 21:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51566)
TedW
Bravo Ted, its time to enter the temple and upset the minds of ALL those who lie to us, from the highest politician, both national and local. It's time to upset the minds of our national enemies. It is time to stand up to friends and relatives, who want us to be as asleep as they are, slumbering amidst their excessive and hypnotizing use of coffee, tv, music, drugsand various religions that are so often misused and such. Utilizing these things to keep themselves and their world a creation of their own image and us subject to them. It is time to not only question them but to challenge them.

It is time to say " Sorry, Mr Jesse Jackson, we don't believe you. Sorry, Mr Daschle, sorry, Mr Putin, sorry Mr drug pusher, Mr tax and spend, sorry Ma, I love you but repeating the rosary is no better than a mantra, sorry Mr Public Educator, the odds are that you and your staff are not good for my son and daughter....and on and on and on.
This could be fun!

Artie Farkle
(04/07/2001; 23:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51567)
(No Subject)
Hello all.

It's time to stop looking down your noses. Try looking up and around. People from California for the most part are just like you and I. They get up in the morning and go to work. They are farmers, ranchers, painters, carpenters, store clerks, bankers, teachers, truckers, moms and dads and...........

How much electricity does Kansas produce? How many pineapples are grown in New York? How much oil does Hawaii produce? Where are your shoes produced?
I'm sure even Grizzly Adams Was dependent on others for salt.

In the USA, we have so much. Yet, we still feel it is appropriate to pump the mighty Colorado River dry, leaving nothing for Mexico.

What's my point? We are all in this together and, we all pay in one way or another, even Californians.

AF

PS Raisins are not grown. They are created by drying grapes. Prunes are grown on trees.

tedw
(04/08/2001; 00:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51568)
Truth
http://www.usagold.comAl Fuchino:

No, we cant go around telling people the truth.There is no telling what might happen if we do.


Black Blade:

What does your crystal ball say about natural gas?View Yesterday's Discussion.

Peter Asher
(04/08/2001; 00:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51569)
Artie Farkle (04/07/01; 23:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51567)

Uhm, Artie, Prunes are dried plumbs. They may grow on trees in a sense, as only certain plumbs are prune plumbs. And, I suppose that when you prune a prune plumb tree you get more plumbs to dry into prunes. (:-)
Peter Asher
(04/08/2001; 00:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51570)
VanRip (04/07/01; 20:18:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51564)
Thanks for straightening that out, I have only lived here twelve years but a native Oregonian would be really upset to be called a Californian even though his Granddad may have come from there. It's all part of the rivalry syndrome.

When I was in 1st grade the kids squared off over Roosevelt/Wilkie then in 5th grade it was Crosby/Sinatra and Yankee/Dodger. All part of the conditioning to divide and conquer.

One of my favorite philosophers wrote "Competition is a trick of the weak to fetter the strong."
Artie Farkle
(04/08/2001; 01:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51571)
More prunes
Fresh or dried, a prune is a prune and is also a plumb but, not all plumbs are prunes. They are also gold on the inside just like the metal discussed here.

At one time I lived in the middle of a large prune orchard. Although I have eaten many and, they are quite good, I am not full of them. : )

All of that aside, I enjoy the depth and breadth of ideas expressed here.
working-kirk
(04/08/2001; 03:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51572)
It going to be worse than you think
Hello, reading the posts, many seem to be gearing up for disaster. I think it will be worse than you think possible.
And the people here don't have a reputation as cheery
MSNBC commentators

I make this statement because from my observations, many of the sheeple are superstitious. Now with the one day sucker
rally on Thursday and the drop on Friday, the announcement of PGE bankruptcy, the tensions over between China and the United States, Everything but outright declaration of war in the Mid-East and more bad new I may have missed -
The sheeple are spooked. It will so little to have them stampede the stock market to a super crash.

So what so special about next week? It occurred to me, next week will have a Friday the 13th. If that didn't occurred to you, it a bet it will occur to the sheeple before Friday.
So what will be the bad news that happens next week?

1.) The major banks suffer financial crisis due to PGE
bankruptcy. Black Bart mentioned this has already started.

2.) The sheeple will get their 401k quarterly statement from the mutual funds and be shocked how much has
been lost.

3.) What would the week be without more earning warnings
and layoff news

4.) COMEX expiration is next Friday (guess who hasn't got
gold or silver especially silver. Comex was barely
able to squeak by last month. But I suspect a lot of
people will be taking during April a lot of delivery
of silver. Like Kodak for instance. There will be
June Weddings and Graduations and people will want to
take pictures. So for the just in time manufacturing
Kodak needs to take delivery now in April for those
June photos. There are other manufacturer who also
will need silver and take delivery in April. Plus
you have a whole lot bulls who want to drive their
truck to the nearest comex silver warehouse and haul
out anything not nailed down. There been one poster
here worried about somebody trying to stop here if he does that. Plus, randy or USAGOLD may confirm but
I hearing it is getting very hard for coin dealer to find silver to meet the demand.

My guess is Easy Al, will probably drop a 1/2 point between sessions. Many also have had their jaws drop open at the
open manipulation that went on last Thursday/Friday. I
tell you that piece of chicanery and others by the Price Protection team that made me wonder just what these people were capable of doing will look like bad card trick. You haven't seen nothing! The magcian/maestro has been warming up his audience. Now it is time for the grand act. You may have seen David Copperfield make Elephants, planes, buildings and other big things disappear.

Well the Maestro has bigger plans. He plans to make the entire world economy disappear. May I suggest you get all
the gold and silver you can before precious metals disappear

But I was talking about the upcoming Friday the 13th. Now imagine you're a sheeple and you get hit with all this bad news. It doesn't take much predictive power to see what they will do; those superstitious enough to believe:

Buy the dips
There will be a recovery in the second half
Don't panic

But there's two more big events coming. On April 15, the
tax man cometh. Because of all the bad news, what do the
sheeple do when they find out because of the bad quarter they

a.) Have a lot less money they thought they had
(You don't need to save in a bank, why a mutual fund is
just as safe)

b.) Because of creative accounting and the ever-changing
tax code not only do they own money, but thank to deferred payment, unpaid options on capital gains
they own 3 to 10 times more in taxes then they calculated?

The last event is China and the possibility of the situation
worsening. Now remember the Chinese are already upset about
our nagging them on Human rights and Taiwan, our bombing of their embassy a few years back, not to mention the subtle (and sometimes not so subtle racism.) that is displayed to Asians. They have long memories. Plus the fact the service personnel were spying and from my understanding of International law, China has the right to lock them up and throw away the key. I don't see how this situation can get better. I can see it getting a lot worse but not better.
For I remember it was the Chinese who gave us the curse: "May you live in Interesting Times." I think they are about to show us just
"How interesting!"

Belgian
(04/08/2001; 04:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51573)
Understanding History, without its details ?
Yes Sir Gresham and Parsifal...that's what I'm trying to achieve, about Gold. Is 30 Years of Gold, already enough history or a detail ? Is 150 years reliable Dow figures, history or detail ? Don't think so...but the fall of the pound is an historical fact. I don't need its details and allow me to justify this unwilled arrogance.

The more we can " CHART ", a given amount of history,...the less details we need to guess its probabilities.
We were not able to chart the rise or fall of the Berlin wall. We cannot chart the outcome of the US/China acci(inci)dent.
But we can chart and inter-related (!) POG / DOLLAR/ OIL/ EURO/ etc...These charts are dipped into the sauce of Fundamentals and possible Theories. The academic work must be encapsuled with large amounts of intuition and gutfeeling, abundly provided on this forum.
This way, we are able to project future outcomes as we proceed in time. Trail fundamentals and Forum-ideas + Long Term charts are the tool-combination.

"Charts" are visual confirmation or contradiction of our detail-jigsaw. Charts are not to be mixed with statistics !
We are not looking for relationships "by chance".
The WA event is as important as the effect we visualised on the POG-chart. The impact and magnitude of importance is put into perspective of short and long time. What does the spike of 80$ in 1 month mean in the last 5 years of suspected strong manipulation ? And how does this event relates to the 30 years of charted POG. And do our conclusions fit into our different theories and fundamentals about gold ?

For this reason, I daily stare, repeatedly, at these Long Term charts, looking out for the dramatic changes I believe are in progress. It is not the news that is affecting things, but the reaction on this news that is ohhhh sooooo important. It is much more important to spot when and how the inter-relation between POG/POO, disrupted...than exactly knowing "WHY" it happened. Academics against Pragmatics. It is a pity that we cannot discuss these all important charts and their inter-relationships here on the forum.

Charting and interpretation of these numerical facts are often regarded as Voodoo. I am convinced it is not.
Will the dollar imitate the pound ? No idea. The pound-history only provides us with the knowledge that these things can happen. So, lets take the dollar-index chart from the lastest 30 years. Is this chart reliable ? No, because we can adjust the weighings of the different currencies over time. No problem, we filter this out by adding the USTB-30yrs + POG + DOW charts. And then we start the "interpretations" and linking them to our Fundamentals data bank. We all together see the 1980 milestone. The year of confluencing extremes : Dow/dollarindex Low - POG/IR High
Add the grams Au/Barril-chart and let's start the interpretation and relationship-speculation of the 30 year report on how was reacted (results) on all the news.

- Do we agree on a US-SM extreme ? Is the build-up of this extreme related to other parameters ? Yes it is. The exponential surge of SM-indices started in 1995. A corresponding ATL for the dollar-index and of course a high in POG (414$) and an heavenly environment of 15 years declining interest rates ( with a possible ATL in = ?)

Looking at POG ('80-'00) chart...it doesn't look as dramatic as we feel it is. The time lapse of 21 years is the dramatic factor, rather than an extreme in price. It is important to realise that the 10 years up ('71/'80) were much more dramatic, inclusive extreme, than the 21 year decline. This is telling us something fundamental. The POG chart(20 yrs) has the pattern of a Dome, without an explicit price spike. This corresponds with an opposite grail in the dollar-index with " NOT " the same characteristics ! The 1985 extreme (ATH). Intuitively, this is the reason why I'm expecting another extreme has to compensate the 1985 excess with an ATL. And there is no lack of fundamental reasons to avoid this from happening.
On top of this : SM-indexes are still very far from the bottom...the USTB-y30 is on the brink of an up-break (!?) and could confirm that the ATL is already in !?

Knowing very well that the charting and interpretation stuff is still very controversial, I will leave it here.
But not without the conclusion that we are indeed approaching some dramatic changes. I translate the charts with a building up of silent forces and tensions. As if everything is in the progress of comming into synchronisation and reciproque confirmation.

Practical gamblings (oeeegghfff) : POG : 250$ - 350$ (450$-zoefff)) breaking ranges. Dow/NAS/SP500 : Low-projections : 3.000/500/350 (don't shoot the pianist, please). USTB30 : concentrating on the 6,5% upbreak.
USdollar-index : 100 break >> disaster. POO is the joker.
USD/EURO : inverse SHS is intact. Leading goldmine-valuations show a 3 year (rocksolid=?) rounding saucer bottom. A rightout positive divergence with the 5 yrs dollar-index rise.

What has all this to do with the fundamental valuation of gold ? IMO it has everything to do with the UNDER_VALUATION of gold. They simply forgot to keep up with gold as an permanent Value. These things happen. We divorced Gold and will soon been remarried. Don't miss the wedding. Gone a be
a wonderfull feast.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/08/2001; 06:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51574)
2 Californias � courtesy of tedw's insight

There are 2 Californias (California and Kalifornia)

Rockgrabber is from California - Gray Davis is from Kalifornia

There are 2 Missouris

John Ashcroft is from Missouri - Mrs. Mel Carnahan is from Moscow

Respectfully

HBM
Peter Asher
(04/08/2001; 07:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51575)
Working Kirk
Not to worryThe mainstream E-media at least, has a plan!! Teach the "one way market herd" a new game. Now they can go after each other's money on the way down. This could be the ultimate suckers (Reverse) rally. A sheeple driven, momentum to the downside.

The hilarity of this is that when they get caught in a buy and hold short trap they will suddenly discover the difference between zero on the down side of a long position and infinity on the upside of a short!

Here's the spin---


Taking Advantage of Bear Market

Saturday April 7, 3:53 PM EDT
By Brendan Intindola

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Have you lost faith, and money, waiting for a stock
market turnaround?

Then maybe it's time to join the short sellers, the bears who have found a
honey pot in the U.S. equity rout, profiting from falling prices while most other
investors are swilling red ink.

Mutual funds that "short" the market, an easy way for individuals to profit from
market declines, have posted big gains in recent months, as stock prices have
declined.

By contrast, in the first quarter U.S. stock funds that own stocks, or are
"long" the market, have had the worst returns in more than two years as the
bearishness in technology stocks spread to the broader market.

But when the market is dropping, short sellers come out on top because they
have borrowed stock and then resold it on a bet the price will fall. If their bet
is right, they can buy the stock again after the price drops and then return it
to the lender, pocketing the difference as profit.

HEDGE LIKE THE PROS

Michael Sapir, chief executive of ProFunds in Bethesda, Md., a fund family with
$2 billion in assets that includes the red-hot UltraShort OTC, said these types
of short-selling investments are best used as a tactical, short-term hedge
within a larger portfolio.

The UltraShort OTC fund, up nearly 62 percent in the first quarter, is an
"inverse index fund" with a stated goal of returning twice the opposite
performance of the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). If the Nasdaq 100 index falls,
say, 50 percent in a given period, the fund would rise 100 percent.

"It is like an index fund on a mirror," Sapir said. "We can short individual
stocks, but that is not the most efficient way."

Short-fund portfolio managers often rely on so-called "put" options, which act
like insurance policies by giving the right to sell a stock at a set price by a
certain date.

Suppose IBM is trading at $92 per share and an investor thinks it will fall to
$90 by June. She might buy an IBM June 90 put, giving her the right to sell the
stock at $90. If the price goes to $82 per share, the value of that option
would increase. If the stock price rises, the investor would book the cost of
the contract as a loss.

Similar instruments exist for equity indexes, like the Standard & Poor's 500,
allowing portfolio managers to make bets covering broad market moves.

"We think these funds are good short-term tools. We don't think they are
buy-and-hold funds. People are using these funds to hedge a portfolio, just
like professionals have been doing for a long time," Sapir said.

"So if investors believe in the long-term prospects for tech stocks and would
rather not sell, they may want to put a hedge on for three to six months. So
you can have a good hedge against a market decline. It limits your upside
obviously, but it limits your downside too," Sapir said.

WEAKNESS IN NUMBERS

U.S. diversified stock funds fell 13.1 percent in the first quarter, according to
data from mutual funds tracking firm Lipper Inc. The decline is the worst since
the third quarter of 1998 when Russia's financial crisis and the near-collapse of
hedge fund Long Term Capital Management drove markets lower.

An average of about a dozen U.S. short funds prepared by Lipper showed a
gain of 28.6 percent in the first three months of 2001. And for the 12 months
ended March 31, the average gain was 75.2 percent.

From all-time highs reached in the first quarter of 2000, the Nasdaq composite
has fallen 67 percent, the Dow is off nearly 19 percent and the S&P 500, the
benchmark for judging investing pros, is down nearly 28 percent.

A NEWER OPTION, NOT WIDELY KNOWN

Over the last six months to a year, Sapir said, there are many relatively new
investors who have not experienced such sharp declines in stock prices. These
types of funds were not available during the last bear market.

"Most retail investors do not know how to short the bear market, and they
may not have the margin account to allow them to short. And if you are
dealing pension assets, even down to the individual level in IRA accounts,
generally you cannot short these accounts, but you can buy mutual funds," he
said.

PRUDENT BEAR: LOOK FOR DOW 3,000

David Tice, the Dallas-based manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, said he
believes U.S. stocks are just "in the early innings" of a significant decline.

Tice, whose $175 million fund gained nearly 16 percent in the first quarter,
said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial average to drop below 3,000 over
the next 12 to 18 months, and the Nasdaq composite to skid to below 500
over the same time period.

The Wall Street establishment, however, is betting on a comeback by stocks,
although targets for major indexes set by the brokerages have been pared
back recently.

An average of year-end targets forecast by the major sell-side houses has the
S&P 500 up 40 percent in 2001, the Dow gaining 33 percent, and the Nasdaq
composite rising 80 percent.

But in the bull-bear fight that is as old as the stock market, Tice swings a
clawed paw at the optimists. He points out the price-earnings ratio of the
broad market -- or the share prices of all S&P 500 stocks divided by the
group's combined "trailing" earnings per share for the previous 12 months -- is
still very high in historical terms.

"We started our fund (in 1996) because we felt the market was overvalued.
We still believe that we are just in the early innings of a decline," Tice said.

In bear cycles, as markets typically fall, rise, and fall again, price-earnings
multiples proceed from low to high and back to low, Tice said.

"Even with the Nasdaq down significantly, we believe this is nowhere close to
a bottom because we are selling at 24 times trailing earnings for the Standard
& Poor's 500." That is only 6 notches lower than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 30
at the market's peak in 1999. In 1982, the ratio was as low as 7.

"It is like a pendulum -- you swing too far to the right, it is going to swing
back to the left. It was extreme euphoria that will probably end in extreme
despair," Tice said.

What about the longer-term benefits investors are expecting from three
interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to juice up the tottering
U.S. economy?

Tice hearkened back to the bear market of 1973-74.

The conventional wisdom "is after three cuts, the market has no where to go
but up. But, if you look at the 1973-74 period, by the time the market started
higher, the market was 70 percent off its highs and was selling at a P/E ratio
of 7."

The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates repeatedly over two years
beginning in late 1974. For the S&P 500, 1973 and 1974 are the only two
straight down years since 1950. The index fell 17.4 percent in 1973, and
nearly 30 percent in 1974. As the economy recovered, the S&P 500 gained
31.5 percent in 1975 and 19.1 percent in 1976.

While he declined to name specific short positions held by his fund, Tice said it
is "still short semiconductors, lots of tech companies, semiconductor
equipment manufacturers, and we are short financials -- subprime lenders,
money center banks and brokers."

What areas of the market will be spared the further mauling predicted by Tice?
"We think gold and silver mining companies will go higher, and defense
contractors will go higher," he said.

For the week, the Nasdaq Composite index fell about 120 points, or 6.5
percent to 1,720, the Dow Jones Industrial average lost nearly 90 points, or
0.9 percent, to 9,791 and the S&P 500 dropped almost 32 points, or 2.7
percent to 1,128.

�2000 Reuters Limited.







slingshot
(04/08/2001; 08:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51576)
VanRip Msg#51562 Rockgrabber Msg#51565
VanRip. I was referring to an E-Mail that was forwarded to
Peter Asher by a Californian and was not implying Peter Asher is from California. Sorry, Peter Asher, I will endeaver to make my posts more clearer.
Rockgrabber, Things sure are changeing and maybe not for the better. I agree this energy crisis is coming our way. Gold is DIRT CHEAP! Put some away for a rainy day.
Slingshot
Buena Fe
(04/08/2001; 09:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51577)
Belgian (04/08/01; 04:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51573)
"I translate the charts with a building up of silent forces and tensions. As if everything is in the progress of comming into synchronisation and reciproque confirmation."

MY SENTIMENTS EXACTLY.........ALSO AGREE WITH YOUR ROUGH CONCLUSIONS!
KEEP WELL

tedw
(04/08/2001; 10:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51578)
day 8
http://www.usagold.com
Day 8

Remember, dont buy anything made in Red China today.

Spread the word.


Dont buy from the Butchers of Beijeng
Mr Gresham
(04/08/2001; 10:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51579)
Belgian
Better and better!

(I think we all welcome the intuition that you bring from the charts. Indeed, catching almost any of those trends in strength would have made us very comfortable. Those who did are probably enjoying sunny ocean views from a warm deck right now, rather than staring at a computer screen...)

(P.S. Are you sure about the T-bond?)
turkey hunter
(04/08/2001; 10:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51580)
Excerpt from up coming movie called "Golden Moon"
coming to a theatre near you.Golden Control Room : "Golden Rocket T-60 seconds all systems go."

Golden Rocket: "Roger that, all systems up and ready. Golden engines online and ready to burn".

GCR: "T-30 seconds all systems on line and running."

GR: "Fuel pumps up and running. This is going to be one hell of a ride boys and girls.Buckle up."

GCR: "10 9 8 7 6 5 4 we have ignition 3 2 1 BLASTOFF All golden engines online and burning."

GR: "GCR this is GR. Altitude is 6000 ft and velocity is 1000ft per sec all systems go.Golden stage one coming in 15 sec. All systems go. Pulling 4 G's this golden rocket is
going what a feeling!!! 5 4 3 2 1 Golden Stage one completed burning 2nd stage golden engines. All systems go. Altitude 15,000 ft velocity 3000 feet per sec.

GCR : Roger that GR. All systems go.

GR: Stage 2 golden burn coming in 5 sec. 5 4 3 2 1; stage 2 golden burn done. All system go. We are in earth's golden orbit. Velocity 15,000 ft per sec.

GCR: OK GR keep it at that speed and in that orbit.

GCR: You copy that GR?

GCR: Come in GR. You are veering off course. Reset your GPS to standard orbit. Come in GR!!! Come in GR!!!!!!!!!

GR: "This is GR. WE have "Another" Astronaut that ye know not of. He says dare is gold on dat dare moon. So dis is where dis GR is gonna go. `Yes`. OUT!!

All engines shut down!!!! FOA tap that left golden thruster switch til ya can see dat moon in dat dare window and make sure it is in-line with dem dare cross hairs will ya. Break out the tata chips and salsa boys and girls. Enjoy the ride! Be careful of dat dare floating puke.
Some of the newbies got more than they could handle.

GR: "Come in GCR."

GCR: "We read you."

GR: "Hey boys don't call us will call you in 13 hrs. Over and out!!!"
JMB
(04/08/2001; 10:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51581)
Prune Picker
The term "Prune Picker" came out of the Depression and refers to a native Californian. This has been my understanding for many years, but is it correct?

[USAGold has to be the most incredible forum in the entire world...now we're on a prune thing.]
nickel62
(04/08/2001; 11:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51582)
While long this article from Bob Chapman and Le Metropole Cafe is well worth the time..
US MARKETS

The average price for a branded drug rose from $30.43 in 1991 to $54.78 in 1998. That is an 8.8% annual increase compared with 2.6% for the CPI. Americans are allowed by the drug companies to subsidize the cost of drugs for everyone else in the world. Consequently our elderly and sick either venture across our borders to Canada or Mexico to obtain cheap drugs illegally or go without food or shelter in order to be able to try to stay alive. This is a national tragedy and we should quickly find a solution.

The pharmaceutical industry makes an 18.6% return, which is the best among 41 industries and double to triple most of the best. From January 1995 to February 2001 leading drug stocks have produced total returns, price appreciation and dividends, averaging more then 450%. That is roughly twice the return of stocks in the three major Wall Street Indexes. Yet these companies have to gouge the American people. They are allowed to so do by our Congress upon which drug companies spend almost $100 million a year influencing.

The government has charged Shering-Plough, the pharmaceutical group, with making $90 million in pay-offs to generic drug manufacturers as part of a scheme to prevent cheaper alternatives to K-DUR, a potassium chloride supplement used mainly by patients on blood pressure medication. Abbott Labs and Aventis have been accused of similar breaches of the law.

The analytical community of major brokerage houses resembles the inhabitants of a bordello. They are not in denial. They are paid enormous sums to lie to the public in behalf of their firms� investment banking clients. They ostensibly have no insight into the quality of earnings of the stocks, which they follow. If they did they would have been announcing sell recommendations such as we did. Their malfeasance has led to market shocks each time a major company doesn't meet their earnings estimates. We suppose they also conveniently overlook the negative earnings impact as a result of an outrageously overvalued dollar. You can't have it both ways.

Unfortunately, we believe that the Bush administration knew full well what manipulation had been going on prior to their assuming executive power. Since they have come to power gold is still under immense pressure, the dollar is still ridiculously strong and the Plunge Protection Team is still rigging the stock market. Thus it looks like the Bush faction is about to assume responsibility for past and future manipulations.

It is obvious that the American economy is continuing to deteriorate; as unemployment climbs consumption will decline. If bankruptcy legislation passes and people cannot write-off their credit card debt they'll stop incurring debt and pay off balances. Those who have no hope will still go bankrupt and either go on welfare or enter the underground economy, which presently constitutes over 35% of economic activity. Interest rates can continue lower but during the 1930s when rates went from 6% to 0.75% it did little good. Japan is another excellent recent example. It's too late because profit growth is gone and profit margins are sure to follow. During the late 1930s the economy picked up slightly, but because we stimulated manufacturing output and instituted the C.C.C. Today manufacturing only makes up 16% of the economy. The FED is increasing aggregates at over a 15% rate. That is probably going to be offset by the losses in liquidity from stock market losses. That will hold inflation at 3.5%. That will give us stagflation. We know Alan Greenspan will attempt to wildly create aggregates to bail out the economy, because he has said he will. The problem is he really doesn't know whether it will work or not, because in the 1930s they didn't increase aggregates anywhere near as much as they have presently and will in the future. Thus, we enter a great experiment with the possibility of a collapse in the derivative market that didn't exist until just recently. This bear market has just begun to grow.

Alan Greenspan was responsible for the greatest stock market boom in history. He will also be held responsible for what could become the greatest economic collapse since the collapse of the Lombard system in 1338. Both were born of greed and the power to control and both are doomed to failure. The elitist power behind Mr. Greenspan and the central banks orchestrated the economic and financial charade of the 1990's. Booms and busts don't just happen they are engineered by central banks. They are not normal. They are created by the flooding of the market place with money and credit, which perennially are accompanied by the manipulation of interest rates all of which end up in unproductive hands. That is why the market has lost well over $4 trillion in value and we feel the ultimate losses will be between $10 and $20 trillion. History tells us lower interest rates are not going to save the US and world economy. No one who has studied economic and financial history can think for a moment that Alan Greenspan can control the financial carnage that is in store for us. To our way of thinking he and his mentors know that and this is a game being played to bring about the New World Order. Why else would such tremendous amounts of aggregates be created and why else would they allow individuals and businesses to build up such unpayable amounts of debt? They know eventually the stock and bond markets are going lower and the banks, other lenders and corporations will go bankrupt on a wholesale basis. Why else would banks buy congressional legislation assuring repayment of credit card debt? Next they'll get their paid stooges in congress to reopen debtors� prisons. There goes the Magna Carta and our Constitution straight out of the window. The FED has no solutions. That is why the dollar must be strong and gold trashed. That is why we have no gold backing on our currency. We supposedly, the public, have no place to financially hide. The central banks prescription for price stability not only includes goods and services, but interest rates, currency values and gold. Through market manipulation assisted by the use of derivatives the dollar remains strong as the price of gold is deliberately reduced in value. Once the dollar is extraordinarily overvalued and credit expansion at its zenith, as they are now, gold will bottom and proceed back upward in value as the dollar declines, which will be accompanied by recession or depression. As that evolves the FED and the US Treasury will be forced to bail out the bankrupt bullion banks. If gold goes up several hundred dollars an ounce the banks may not be savable or worse the government may have a real revolution on their hands. The friends and relatives of those in debtors prison aren't going to be to happy about that and the elitists could all end up like Benito Mussolini. We see no halt by central banks, particularly the FED, to printing fiat money. Consequently the system is terminal. What you have seen in the stock market over the past year is but phase one of a long drawn out monetary nightmare.

Financial news is replete with instances of corporate officers of public corporations selling stock while recommending that the public purchase shares. We expect many shareholders suits regarding this and other issues. Over this and next year we expect hundreds of thousands of suits and complaints to be filed against corporate insiders as well as stockbrokers and stock brokerage firms. We predicted this over a year ago and the legal actions are well underway.

When people go bankrupt they raise the costs for other debtors, because lenders raise interest rates and fees to cover their losses. Last year there were 1.2 million personal bankruptcies and this year they'll be a lot more. Credit card bankruptcies filings increased 20% from 1/1/01 to 3/3/01 over a like 2000 time frame. Median household income for personal bankruptcies was $21,540 about $15,000 below the national median. The average age of the debtors� cars was 6 to 9 years and that 25% had medical debts exceeding $1,000. The operating premise of proponents of the new bankruptcy law is that the system is filled with people who are able to pay their debts and choose not to do so. That is simply untrue. Many people sit on the edge because banks and other lenders should have never lent to them in the first place. They have low wage service and retail jobs, most of them temporary. Just turn on your TV and you'll see, buy a new car on sale, no down, no credit check and no finance charges. Far from abusing the economy these poor souls are being abused by the economy. They have been betrayed by the credit card industry. Banks have paid off congress telling them to believe that fraud is running rampant, when it is not. You don't need an elephant gun to kill a few cheats. Congress should be considering legislation to bring action against the bankers, but that won't happen because Congress doesn't give a damn about the public. They only care about being reelected and the banks have plenty of money to assure that.

Fannie Mae sold $125 million in bonds on 4/1/01 and the FHLB sold $115 million on 4/15/01.

Fannie Mae will sell $100 million in bonds on 4/24/01. The FHLB on 4/24/01 will sell $100 million in bonds and sold $125 million worth on 4/4/01. Fannie Mae will sell $300 million in bonds on 4/8/01. Fannie Mae will sell $100 million in bonds on 4/11/01. The FFCB will sell $100 million on 4/11/01, Freddie Mac will sell $150 million on 4/11/01 and FHLB will sell $100 million on 4/17/01 and $50 million in bonds on4/16/01. Ginnie Mae is selling $650 million in bonds in April.

New legislation has been introduced to put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the control of the FED and phase out corrupt HUD's office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The FED would set minimum-capital requirements and approve any new activities. We see this as a phase out of Fannie and Freddie. We also see it as an instrument to bail them out as too big to fail in the coming recession.


Freddie Mac's automated-underwriting system, used by mortgage companies, is wiping out the role of other lenders and eventually gives Freddie and Fannie a monopoly. The system requires minimal information about a client's income, the value of property bought and its location. Information is then taken from credit agencies and a statistical model is used to predict the likelihood of default. This has made getting a loan a piece of cake. The bottom line is if there is a remote chance of a loan being made Fannie and Freddie will write it. They want a monopoly and then they'll be too big to fail in the event of a real estate collapse. This is where all this is leading. Oversight and due diligence is minimal. Banks and other lenders having no implied guarantees from the public can't write such marginal paper. Politicians love Freddie and Fannie it spells prosperity and reelection. We predict that once real estate values begin to fall and fall they must, there is going to be a financial bloodbath, and a major part of that will be attributed to their automated-underwriting system. Together Fannie and Freddie hold $2.3 trillion in loans. What they are is subsidized government agencies that happen to be publicly traded. In a 20% to 50% decline in the real estate market they could end up like PG&E and SCE, virtually bankrupt. Making matters worse they are lending their subsidized liquidity base to non-bank lenders. Fannie Mae encourages unsecured home improvement loans. Brokers, with whom Fannie and Freddie deal with, are originating over 50% of loans, up from 20% ten years ago. Thirty-eight percent of their loans are either no down payment, 125% of equity or $5,000 down. Hardly a way to run a business.

Due to fears of lawsuits Wall Street analysts recommended sell recommendations on 11% of stocks in the first quarter. Perhaps someday HOLD will mean hold again and not sell.

At 1160 the S&P 500 Index is almost 25% below its peak. Its P/E ratio is just below 20 times earnings. Historically its P/E has averaged 15. We think that level will be reached. Taking the S&P 50% off its highs would put it 25% lower at 870, that is if earnings projections hold up, which we are sure they won't. The Dow Jones Industrial average is a continual subject of manipulation as is the S&P 500. As bad as the outlook is statistically it is really worse because they keep changing the formula and the rules. They call it juicing.

Moody's credit rating downgrades have again outnumbered upgrades in the first quarter. 76 investment-grade downgrades compared with 16 upgrades. That is a 3.43-1 ratio if you discount the 21 downgrades related to the impact of the California power crisis. Corporations are in trouble and are selling paper in the bond market as fast as they can. This is major deterioration.

Program trading now represents 26.5% of the NYSE's daily average volume. Most of this is generated by index arbitrage, which involves multi-stock trades in which professionals try to take advantage of fleeting price differences between stocks and stock futures. This opportuning of markets is akin to that of a gambling casino. In the week of 12/11/00 and 12/15/00 program trading accounted for 33% of total NYSE volume.

Statistics show that the only plus for the economy during the 1990's was phenomenal profits by corporations, which was the result of creative accounting. What we thought were great leaps in productivity was the result of massive liquidity injections and cooking the books. Part of the phantom gains came from restructuring, which in most cases was done to enhance the value of company shares, so insiders could sell their options. That was accompanied by laying off anyone over 40, cost cutting and general downsizing. This wasn't a free market or capitalism it was a simple manipulation. Wealth is created by physical economy. We are witnessing the degeneration and destruction of physical economy in America. There is no easy way to profits and wealth. You have to work for it. You can't create it through subterfuge. As a result, 10 years after we should have had a severe recession, we are going to have a severe recession, because the economy is far weaker now than it was in 1989-91 and the debt increases are staggering. For the rest of the year the economic numbers are going to be simply horrible and as a result the economy will slow further and the stock market will fall further.

We expect E-Bay will soon be sued for invasion of privacy. They have broken their word to the public and will sell its users information if the company is acquired or merges with another business. We'd short E-Bay at 35 3/8, and cover at 27.

As an example of the slaughter in mutual funds, Janus Capital Corp. has lost $100 billion in assets without losing many of its four million investors. Some of their funds are off over 50%. These are professional managers. With this kind of management they should hire a garbage collector to manage the funds. As you can see the public has been deceived and brainwashed by the brokerage community, government and the media, particularly CNBC. These investors have to be either stupid or brain-dead.

nickel62
(04/08/2001; 11:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51583)
Just contrary musings :
Maybe the outcome of all of this financial gerryrigging will ultimately be gold turns out to once again be a private only asset. Or in other words the Central Bank holdings will be so small that they will not matter. The inflection point could well have already been reached. It is quite possible that the public demand to have some stability behind their currency could reoccurr and the banks I would believe have most likely already already sold or leased the majority of their actual holdings. It is one of those silly simple things that change the world. What if they held a currency and no one came?
slingshot
(04/08/2001; 11:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51584)
What is a Goldbug?
There has been many an hour that I have spent reading the posts at this forum. So much so that my wife says that I am obsessed with it. How did it all start? Chance maybe luck.
Happen to look in the business section of the paper and found GOLD at good price to buy. $325.00 I believe. Off I went to trade FIAT for GOLD. My curiosity got the best of me as to how others thought of Gold and my search upon the web took me here. For some time I stayed in the shadows and read
all your posts. Learning the acronyms was the hardest as being new to the forum. Where do I rate USAGOLD? TOP NOTCH and PROFESSIONAL. No newspaper, magazine or TV Can do a better job informing on the subject of GOLD. How can I say this? Simply that information is supported by optional links whereby further research can be done by the reader.The debate among posters alone is sufficent to weed out poor statements. So what is a Goldbug? IMHO. He is a person interested not only preserving his wealth but also his freedom. He is concerned about what is going on in the world
for he knows it may have an impact upon his life. His tenacity to expore theory leads to the facts. Most of all he has a willingness to share with others his veiws.Pointing out that these veiws can come from around the world!
To those first time lurkers I say stick around and find out what is a Goldbug. You won't be disappointed.
To all at the forum "Thanks"
Slingshot
Journeyman
(04/08/2001; 12:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51585)
PROFOUND if conrtary musings @nickel62 msg#: 51583

Hi nickel62!!

Very profound "if contrary musings" indeed! If they (CBs) keep gold "leasing" up (and remember we had pretty good evidence thru TheStranger's correspondence that BOE at least, practices fractional reserve gold banking) they may have little of their gold "on permisis!"

Once the "spoiler" gold (the gold actually held by the CBs)is no longer an adaquate amount to threaten an exchangable gold currency - - - AND that situation becomes somewhat common knowledge, that would certainly drop a significant barricade to a return to transactional gold.

And then, yes, "What if they gave a [fiat] currency and no one came."

But it occurs to me "they" may have nothing to fear - - - if they are merely switching around ownership papers to gold already in their vaults which only has it's title changed from time to time but not it's location.

This is something that's difficult to determine, probably even for most insiders. Anyone know how to find out the actual gold balance sheet figures for BOE?

Regards,
Journeyman
Belgian
(04/08/2001; 13:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51586)
Gresham/Buena Fe/Slingshot
USTB30 : No Sir, I am sure of nothing ! But piercing a 13 yrs downtrend line (at 6,5%) is significant, especially in a context where interest rates were pushed down in a strike of panic (A.G.). This is "INTERVENTION" � la carte. Again a free market could not decide for its own good. Natural behaviour was curtailed. This low rates are not justified now and add to hiding the currency-erosion. And masks the signal function of the Gold-Indicator. We must again conclude that both forces : 1/interventionists and 2/free market, are in doubt as to decide and show the infla/defla/stagfla...lalalas. This "doubt", must point to the cumulation-point of denial/acceptance in the SM (and dollar). If interest rates, manage to move higher (7%)...they might facilitate the choice for the marketmovers to lock in, SM-recuperated money into the save (?) harbor of USTB-30. Derivatives will cover a potential dollar-decline.

The recent Low of 5% ('99)(USTB30) and corresponding Low in POG (252$) is again a positive divergence for POG, compared to the same 5% (UST30) in 1972 (POG between 50$-100$)
Don't know if it is relevant, due to the 1971 window event.

A weakening dollar will automatically be defended with higher rates. Higher rates will kill the overvalued SM. And weak dollar might provoque POG signals. Catch 22 ?
And what is the weakest shackle into this chain...? yes, Gold !

To avoid the above scenario...what has to be done ?
Lower interest rates (again) by Interventionnist force...wich might support the SM at these levels and prevent the dollar from sliding. My guess is that if they succeed in such a bold move...it will only be the building of wave IV (rates down) waiting for wave V up to break the 6,5%-7% psychological and technical breaking point. In this scenario, I take the previous 5% low as ATL, from wich an EW impuls wave has started.

Gresham : do you really think there are so much -SM- Big Winners out there ? I have strong doubts about the amount of winners at the final outcome.

Slingshot : I'm convinced there are only a fistfull of hard core goldbugs left. Perhaps most of us remain goldbug for the wrong reasons. Only the strong believers and cognant are prepared to act on physical and wait for the unevitable outcome. It takes an enormous amount of patience, to lead a friend onto the Goldpath. There is something like Gold-Fear. Once you bought into physical, it feels as if you have to stick with it. Stock investing doesn't seem to have this Fear-Reflex. Strange isn't it ?
It is this element of Fear that makes the paper-ravage, possible. That's why I repeat that the "Goldmovers" will decide when that Gold-Fear will be turned into Gold-Rush.
I cannot name these goldmovers. But I know they exist.
They have been manifesting their existance very regulary within the 21 year decline. They will never disappear, because "GOLD" is fore ever. Not supposed to be interpreted as kind off Gold-romance blablablah...but when I see 3 years of rounding bottom-accumulation with corresponding volume-accumulation in the Big five goldmines...goldmovers in action. Announcements of Austrian sales, hadn't any effect on mines. If you compare POG and Dollar-index since 1997 : POG's behaviour is positively diverging to the outright dollar-index surge. This is goldmovers, physical accumulation to me. As if they want to give a strong signal for not falling into the minus 200$ dollar trap. These chart-observations are mostly intuitive interpretations.
The signals are whispered and difficult to comprehend.

The above rhethoric falls or stands with the number 250$ for POG. A brutal breakdown, will hurt reigning prudent optimistic perception. Goldbugs are not speculators by definition. But a more extreme undervalution will provoque another approach in Valuation-Timing. If the bulk of official gold is planned to be distributed into private hands...I will never, never, never sell it. But it is not on the order of the day, isn't it ?

SHIFTY
(04/08/2001; 14:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51587)
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmNasdaq 1,720.36 + Dow 9,791.09 = 11,511.45 divide by 2 = 5,755.72 Ponzi

Down 103.80 from last week

Things are looking interesting for this week.

Got Prunes?

Get U some !

:-)

RossL thank you as always for the link.

All jokes aside

Got Gold?
You still have time to get you some.

$hifty
Ray Patten
(04/08/2001; 14:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51588)
VERY bullish committment of traders report for Gold!!

Friday's committment of traders report showed that the commodity funds increased their shorts over 16,000 and the commercials decreased their short contracts outstanding by over 20,000 to only 16,000. That is the smallest commercial short position in almost 10 years, probably over 20 years. My records only go back to 1993.

It looked like nothing was happening in the last week of trading because there was little change in open interest. So this report is a big suprise, especially to the commodity funds, who just let major commercials out of what has apparently become an uncomfortable position.

I predict that Gold will close at least $5 higher on Monday.

Hopefully, these cheap prices for Gold will now become part of history.
Ray Patten
(04/08/2001; 14:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51589)
The link.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htmThis is the link to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission site.
Mr Gresham
(04/08/2001; 15:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51590)
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmTook me most of the weekend to get through this one -- Hayek & Keynes, lots of '30s perspectives. But it is Econo-speak, and my brain is just in eye-scanning mode, not registering much. Need a second going-over.

Belgian -- I will also re-read your earlier "TA" post with some relish, as I enjoy your many turns of phrase that land right on my intuitions of the situation, just never saw them in words before. I think it comes from the European experience of thinking in more than one language, and it keeps the brain more nimble. (as does our long-time friend, Cobra2)

The T-bonds do tend to show long trends. But we have heard news of the Rubin-era (&post) of manipulation in their issuance and redemption. I'm watching 10-year more now. Manipulations (as with gold) are subject to a sudden withdrawal of that program, as well as -- in both T-bonds and gold -- the dual spectres of Government and Monetary defaults. Those psychological reversals may or may not be "news" already incorporated in the charts. The "3-sigma" that returns economic numbers to crash-fundamentals instead of TA waves.... One window larger than we've been watching... Hmmmmm....
R Powell
(04/08/2001; 15:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51591)
Ray Patten
Thanks for the report and the link. I have it but when it's right there, a click is so much easier than having to find it among all the paperwork my wife wants cleaned up.
Those numbers were as of 4/3/01, last Tuesday.
I still believe this huge short position held by the non-commercials or funds is the result of chart watchers or those who base their positions on technical analysis. Most of these analysts have little to no knowledge of the matters discussed here every day whether related to gold or the general economy.
61,580 short contracts
10,226 long
This leaves a net short position of 41,354 contracts. That's plenty of powder for a good short covering rally (as in Sept.-Oct. 1999). Add in the thousands of tons from years of the gold trade and we'll have a wonderful time.
The powders there and ready. Has anyone got a match?
Rich
R Powell
(04/08/2001; 15:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51592)
Shifty and RossL
Thanks for the Ponzi chart.
I asked the misses to buy some prunes today buy she came home with non-California grown prunes. Are these acceptable or should we return them?
Rich
CoBra(too)
(04/08/2001; 16:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51593)
There is Something in the Air ... Tonight ...
... Is it the smell of singed SM's right after a heroic relief (counter-) action by the last? try of a bull stampede, aborted in view of no takers of Del(l-inquent)'s
status quo, which was a lot better reading than the now becoming business as usual warnings of no (ever) earnings by the rest of the techs - or is it that the the real fundamentals of the credit, debt and SM bubble are beginning to sink in and the good ship Titanic.

After all and after hours PGE took shelter from creditors and filed chapter 11 - kind of a shocker to BB's grasshopper - and considering UTE's have been the safest havens and assured yield provider for the retired - this just may prove to be the last drop in the leaky tub and even the call for all men to the (FED) pump, won't forestall the overall slump of SM's, $'s, TB's and bonds.

The US situation may have reached the same state, as Japan's Tankan report has painted of late - as the overall debt surpasses GDP - 11 years of stagnant economy with the banks remaining in jeopardy! Woe is me, shame and scandal to the eco-policy! - while all those cranks at CB's and Bullion Banks were playing Black (Sholes) Jack with derivatives - sans the intellect of counterparty thieves.

And in the end they even played paper gold as poker chips for match sticks in their quest to make a penny more on their money as a proxy for the physical, the last and lost treshhold of the $-hegemony. Systemic risk, we've heard the story, was averted by gory and ineffectual paper banding, until we're back close to stranding.

So go ahead and save the hedges, triple the global economy, as markets fray at the edges, Greenie is all they can see. ... and the brutal reality of virtuality - same as a hangover - is the waking up process - to the factuality of actually having mistaken progress for success ... as happended before (1929?) and there is a surprising hush from the administration of Bush, as it may slowly sink in, you can't even save kin from the dust bin of history, where in the end we're all in.

... The still intact, value of gold will cushion the "Deep Impact" of the (asteroid) debt load - be sure to secure a place in the last life boat ... of the Titanic - happy Easter to all of you - cb2




SHIFTY
(04/08/2001; 18:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51594)
R Powell
R Powell : non-California grown prunes will not have any numismatic value. LOL


Living in Florida I should watch the prune supply . If it starts to DRY UP there could a run on prunes!


$hifty
Sancho
(04/08/2001; 18:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51595)
Nickel62, All
Excellent reposting at message 5l582 on Bob Chapman article. He seems to be an astute observer-especially on the end result of all these easy loans and attendant graft. As it is now about all a buyer of a manufactured home needs to qualify for a loan is to be able to breathe. Any credit "problems" get "fixed". These are somewhere around 35% of new home market. Start imagining several hundred acre fields filled with re-poed mobiles. Site built homes are not much tighter on qualifying as they have so many special programs tailored to the economically disadvantaged (read someone who cannot on their own volition save over $500 of their own) and credit damaged that creditors run out of potential customers. You will see a repeat of FDIC and RTC type foreclosures, only much more so.
Tree in the Forest
(04/08/2001; 19:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51596)
Rockgrabber
I've always liked California. Anyone who loves motorcycles, has to love that great weather. The problem is CA has become totally pink. How can the same people who wisely elected Ronald Reagan as governor, elect these socialists Davis, Feinstein et al? Rigged elections? They're certainly paying for it now.
Tree in the Forest
(04/08/2001; 19:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51597)
Goldbugs: Keep the faith
From a fortune cookie: Life always gets harder near the summit.
slingshot
(04/08/2001; 19:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51598)
Belgian Msg#51586
Hard Core GoldbugsAwhile back I came across an article stating that the Powers to Be want to take Gold to "zero". No value at all. This would percipitate the crossover to an electronic money system easier. After reading this news, I said to myself,
Ain't this some crap! Can you see some CBer who has been buying his wife for years GOLD bracelets, rings neckleces and other jewelry say, "That is not worth anything". Zero,ZIP, dump it all in the trash. So, maybe they should be concerned at what their wives would do to them. I plan to ride this market all the way. I came in at a good price of Gold and if it falls Good if it rises Good. I do not over extend myself yet, accumulate Gold slowly.
"but a more extreme undervaluation will provoque another approach in Valuation-Timing".
For me, "This is it" Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

The discussion at this forum has IMHO, covered many scenarios which could affect the price of Gold. The percentage for the price of gold to rise is in our favor.
Time is our only enemy. I have no Gold Fear. I do have confidence. More confidence than those in the stock market.


My bullion dealer told me that since the price of gold is so low, shareholders are buying gold with profits from the stock market! WHOA!



Slingshot
SHIFTY
(04/08/2001; 20:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 51599)
Asia is a bit RED
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uJapan down -349.92 2.61 %
SHIFTY
(04/08/2001; 21:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51600)
Inside the Beltway
http://www.washtimes.com/national/inbeltway-200144212910.htmA snipit about GOLD.
==================================

Bullion bull


An old debate has resurfaced on Capitol Hill as to what is a collectible and what is not, including coins.
As far as Congress has been concerned, bullion coins and bars issued by the U.S. Mint "are the same as a rare wine, or a piece of art," says Mike DiRienzo, vice president of the Gold Institute.
But they're not collectibles, Mr. DiRienzo tells Inside the Beltway. "They are investment tools."
Agreeing is a prominent group of Republican congressmen, who have introduced a bill that would provide capital-gains treatment for gold, silver and platinum bullion investment products, in coin or bar form.
"As you know, for long-term capital gains attributable to collectibles, the tax rate remains at the maximum rate of 28 percent," says Mr. DiRienzo. "Unfortunately, gold, silver and platinum bullion has been classified as a collectible by Congress, thereby precluding it from the long-term capital gains tax relief preference."
Popular bullion coins include the American Eagle, the Australian Kangaroo Nugget, the Canadian Maple Leaf, the South African Krugerrand and the Austrian Philharmonic. American Eagle bullion coins have become one of the world's leading bullion investment coins.
"Basically, this is a technical correction bill, but it has a funny angle, given Congress' classification of these products as a collectible," says Mr. DiRienzo.

Chris Powell
(04/08/2001; 21:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51601)
Defendants' replies in GATA/Howe case posted
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/729Note that the U.S. government claims
the power to manipulate the price of
gold as the GATA lawsuit complains it
has been doing.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Lafisrap
(04/08/2001; 22:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51602)
ECB about to "blink"?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtAT8BSyRUNCIExp
I remember FOA stating in explaining the euro vs US-dollar currency war, it was very significant that when the Fed began lowering interest rates the ECB did not "blink." Looks like the ECB is about to "blink."

excerpt from link
***
04/08 03:32
ECB Likely to Cut Key Interest Rate Wednesday, Analysts Say
By Sonja Dieckhoefer

Frankfurt, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will probably cut interest rates for the first time in two years this week, as slowing economic growth raises the likelihood of inflation in the euro region receding, analysts say.
***

SHIFTY
(04/08/2001; 22:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51603)
Getting ugly in Japan
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:13AM 12943.44 -440.32 -3.29%
SHIFTY
(04/09/2001; 00:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51604)
Golden Star Resources
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256A25005ECE42?OpenDocumentGolden Star ups stake in Bogoso, still chasing Prestea



By: Tim Wood


Posted: 04/05/2001 01:00:00 PM | � Miningweb 1997-2001


NEW YORK -- Toronto listed Golden Star Resources (T:GSC | OTCBB:GSRSF) has bought out Australian junior Anvil Mining's shares in Bogoso Gold Limited (ASX:AVL | BER:903718) in a share swap arrangement. The company also confirmed to Miningweb that negotiations to acquire Prestea have restarted.
Anvil's 20% of Bogoso as well as a 22.2% shareholder loan interest revert to Golden Star after the exchange of 3 million shares worth $0.4 each ($1.2 million). Once regulatory approval has been granted, Golden Star will control 90% of Bogoso with the Ghanaian government retaining its obligatory 10%. There are no restrictions on Anvil's newly acquired shares besides ordinary US holding rules.

Golden Star was recently delisted from the American Stock Exchange because it had more than five years of losses and total shareholders' equity of less than $4 million under U.S. GAAP. The firm's US listing was transferred to the over-the-counter market which CEO and president Peter Bradford says has negatively affected liquidity since most of its shareholders are American. While the bulk of GSR's trade is now conducted in Toronto, Bradford says it is reverting back to the US as investors become aware of the OTC listing.

The Anvil arrangement is part of a plan to give Bogoso better access to capital as it undergoes a larger consolidation plan. Last year GSR had agreed to acquire Prestea, located south of Bogoso, from South Africa's Barnex until the government threatened to abrogate the latter's rights. The intention is to extend Bogoso's life by adding Prestea's reserves to its modern processing circuit.

Without Prestea, mining at Bogoso will be discontinued in the third quarter and stockpile processing will take the mine to closure at the end of this year.

Since the change of government in Ghana to a more mining friendly regime, GSR has been able to restart negotiations over Prestea and the increased stake in Bogoso indicates some expectation of a positive outcome. The local miners' union is also less intransigent without government support which should aid the process.

No time frame has been set to complete negotiations.

Bradford says the Bogoso sulfide project is still an option, but not at current price levels. "There's a large difference between feasible and financially feasible." The project is expected to need around $20 million to get off the ground and at prices closer to $300 an ounce.

Despite the capital drought affecting gold juniors, the company remains confident that it has a story of quality and credibility to keep investors happy.

Getting out of Bogoso leaves Anvil free to develop its copper-silver Dikulushi project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. That it took shares from GSR does offer some confidence that Bogoso may yet pull the rabbit from the hat.




View Yesterday's Discussion.

SHIFTY
(04/09/2001; 00:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51605)
Japan
DOWN -542.00 -4.05% Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 2:00AM 12841.76 -542.00 -4.05%
Turnaround
(04/09/2001; 03:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51606)
sniff
SHIFTY (04/09/01; 00:28:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51605)

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 2:00AM 12841.76 -542.00 -4.05%

Smells like something's burning, paper maybe?
Seeker of the Grail
(04/09/2001; 03:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51607)
Good Morning
Sirs,

Looks like spot has run the gauntlet quite nicley so far.
Is everyboby predicting a tobbogan slide today or do you think the PPT will ban tobogganing?

Prunes are supposed to be good for cleansing the system are they not? Maybe we should send a case to the PPT!

AS far as light bulbs go...maybe the question should be how many legislators needed to light a candle?

May your chalice overflow,

SOTG
tedw
(04/09/2001; 06:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51608)
Day 9
http://www.usagold.com
DAY 9

BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS AND THE BUTCHERS OF BEIJENG.

WORLDNETDAILY REPORTS THAT AN AMERICAN SERIVCEMAN WAS THROWN TO THE GROUND BY A CHINESE OFFICER AND THE PLANE FORCIBLY ENTERED WHEN IT LANDED ON CHINESE TERRITORY.

THE CHINESE LEADER ARE ARROGANT,EVIL, AND AGGRESSORS.

STOP BUYING CHINESE GOODS. YOU ARE BUYING THE ROPE WHICH WILL BE USED TO HANG YOU.
The Invisible Hand
(04/09/2001; 07:35:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51609)
THE CHINESE LEADER ARE ARROGANT,EVIL, AND AGGRESSORS.
What are the Americans doing in China?
Who's the aggressor?
Max Rabbitz
(04/09/2001; 07:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51610)
Boycott Chinese Goods
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/4/4/163352.shtmlIt is the Chinese military that is being very arrogant and aggressive. Now that the Chinese communists no longer have an ideology people believe in there is no reason for them to remain in charge. The military wants power. They are upset that their private businessare being taken away. We could have a military coop and dictatorship leading to the "Superior Chinese" trying to dominate Asia. The Sudetenland is first, opps, I mean Taiwan, then Korea, then Japan. I think the Chinese people will easily submit to authority, especially if nationalistic. A large-scale boycott of Chinese goods should increase inflation and increase the price of gold. However, this is not the reason to boycott. The Chinese military must be seen in China as reckless and dangerous to the economy, or they will soon have the upper hand. You can help China and western democracies by boycotting Chinese goods.
LeSin
(04/09/2001; 08:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51611)
@ tedw #51608
Sir, respectfully, please take it outside. Your simplistic attempt to rally support is weak and ill-informed at best.

Oh, how quick we are to rally our young sons and send them to war all because of the BLUNDERS of Govt heads, Greed of Multi-national companies & bankers, together with irresponcable career military brass bafoons.

Trade and lots of It between nations, all nations - keeps them from war - boycotts & trade blocks are the corner stones & fundamental building blocks of wars.
Peace & Trade "S"
Buena Fe
(04/09/2001; 08:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51612)
War
Back in October the US financial press (with a few European stooges in tow) was emphatic that the ECB needed to raise their rates to support the Euro...........now they're emphatic that the ECB must lower rates to spur growth...AND THIS WILL BE BULLISH FOR EURO. The truth is....the US needs to lower rates...but it can't if the ECB doesn't play along because the $ stands a good chance of getting toasted!
Just like China won't bend on spy plane issues...I bet ECB won't lower rates on Wednesday! Bye Bye SM & US$...Hellooo Gold!
Keep Well
CoBra(too)
(04/09/2001; 08:38:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51613)
ECB -Rate Cut?
Hello Buena Fe as it seems the banking community over in Euroland thinks otherwise as some banks already have cut rates by 25 - 50 bp's, while others are waiting for the official announcement expected Wednesday. Call it blind faith if you will, still you're right calling it crap that rate reduction will help the ailing zEuro.

best cb2

Mr Gresham
(04/09/2001; 09:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51614)
All's Quiet
at USAGold forum. (Except for the OT stuff ;) No Trail Guide for, how long is it now? Oro is off, finally getting his chapters put together...

Calm before the ? -- our best contrary indicators?: Something's about to pop.

(BTW, I've caught myself twice starting to think in "Belgian". Great language! But of course, Al Gore invented it, and GWB learned it in high school.)
Rockgrabber
(04/09/2001; 09:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51615)
Seeker of the Grail
that is the most kind words I have heard.
MAY you Chalice overflow as well! That gives me a notion.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/09/2001; 09:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51616)
At The Gilded Opinion.... "The Case for Gold" by Doug Casey
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Caseygold.htmlWhat you will find...
-------
In May 1996, Casey advised getting out of natural resources, particularly mining stocks and precious metals. He saved his readers a lot of grief as the whole mining/precious metals market tumbled disastrously, but now...."It's time to buy both gold and silver bullion (or coins) in size, and with abandon."

Mr. Casey continues:

"Estimates are that world demand for gold is 50 percent higher than annual production of 3,000 tonnes, and that's been the case for years. The deficit has been funded by gold loans from central banks, abetted by forward sales of some mining companies. ... It's been an excellent game to play for almost 20 years. But when the market turns, many players are going to get caught short. ...and the higher the price goes, the more frantic will be the drive to cover it. It's entirely likely you'll see bankruptcies on the part of both lenders and borrowers in the next few years.
+
The decision of European central banks to stop lending as well as selling gold will alone put a lot of pressure on the shorts. I don't know the timing of the next move in gold; but you should use times like these to sit on the bid and build a position. I've been saying that for the last year. This is likely to be the strongest gold market in history, driven by both fear and greed."
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/09/2001; 10:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51617)
At The Gilded Opinion.... "A New Paradigm For The Old Economy" by John Hathaway
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Tocqueville.htmlWhat you will find...
-------
"Investment and commercial banks have come to resemble closed end hedge funds. ... In the world of derivatives, there is little accountability. The potential for pouring fresh money into a bad bet is almost unlimited.
+
... The lesson in natural gas is that outcomes in physical markets cannot be manipulated according to the views of traders and bankers whose principal realities are mathematical models and trading screens. ... The explosion in natural gas prices is a precursor for physical resources in general, including gold."
Mr Gresham
(04/09/2001; 10:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51618)
Stephen Roach: Pruning the White-Collar Bloat
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0A new (for me) perspective on the recession, looking at a major subcategory of US workers:

"In my opinion, the coming layoffs of white-collar workers are traceable to the same forces that have produced the dramatic downturn of the IT cycle -- a deep earnings recession for Corporate America. Courtesy of the great equity bubble of 1995-99 and the New-Economy hype it spawned, discipline on cost-control lapsed, and businesses engaged in open-ended technology acquisition and excessive hiring. IT spending surged by 13% a year over the 1995-99 interval and then exploded by 23% in 2000; at the same time, surging white-collar employment accounted for fully 75% of the 12.3 million new jobs that were created in the nonfarm US economy over the past six years. "

"In response, cost cutting is back -- and with a vengeance. IT was the first to go, and the white-collar worker will probably be next.

"As the IT cycle rolls over, the focus has been on the employment repercussions that such a development has in America's dot-com communities, from Silicon Valley to Massachusetts. This, in my opinion, is only the tip of what could turn out to be a large iceberg. The IT sector itself accounts for only about 3.5% of total private nonfarm employment in the United States --

"Most observers view such cost cutting in a classic cyclical context -- expecting it to run its course in a matter of months. That could turn out to be wishful thinking. I fear, instead, that there may be a deeper meaning to all this -- one that strikes at the heart of the New Economy. As I see it, over the course of 1999 and in the early months of 2000, something truly extraordinary happened to the psychological mindset underpinning the US economy. Courtesy of the Nasdaq bubble, businesses, consumers, and policy officials all became convinced that a seamless transition to an e-based world was at hand. In the words of Intel's Andy Grove, all companies needed to become e-companies. Corporate America was urged to embrace the here and now of a sparkling New Economy.

"That's exactly what happened, as the Old Economy began a wrenching reinvention around the Internet. However, this resulted in an extraordinary duplication of business platforms across the corporate spectrum -- from autos and chemicals to finance and book-selling. Dual platforms emerged to sell the same product or service -- both the old way and the new way.

"Borrowing a page from the script of the boom-bust cycles of yesteryear, businesses added a new layer of costs right at the very peak of this cycle.

"Which takes us to the macro impacts on the US economy. To the extent that cost cutting now takes an unusual toll on white-collar managers, the impact on consumption would be all the more severe. Hourly earnings of private industry white-collar workers were 47% higher than for blue-collar workers in 1998 (latest available statistics). And managers -- the largest occupational segment in the US work force -- are the highest paid of the lot; their mean hourly earnings were slightly more than 50% above the white-collar norm. Moreover, it seems reasonable to presume that mangers also own a disproportionate share of financial assets -- stocks and bonds, alike. All this points to an unmistakably tough macro conclusion: The likely pruning of white-collar bloat goes right to the heart of the growth and investing dynamic of the US economy. It takes dead aim at the high-powered American consumer. And without the consumer, the last line of defense against recession will most assuredly be breached.



Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/09/2001; 10:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51619)
More Gilded Opinion.... "Gold Showing Signs of Life" by Leanne M. Baker / SalomonSmithBarney
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/BakerSigns.htmlMs. Baker writes...
- - - - -
The fact that least rates continued to climb even as short positions are being reduced suggests that the supply of gold being lent to the market is, in fact, tightening.

Is there evidence that central banks are reducing the supply of gold available for lending in the market? The short answer is, yes.

Excerpts from a letter that the World Gold Council sent [late February] to its producer members have been circulating on a number of Internet sites. We confirmed that the letter was written, and that the excerpts are quoted accurately.

It appears that the Bank of England (an outright seller of gold through its semi-monthly gold auctions) has not been lending gold in recent days, a move that the WGC characterized as "unprecedented, as its short-term lending is considered a vital tool in the smooth running of the London market."

In the wake of the late-1999 unruly gold market, when both lease rates and gold prices spiked, some client central banks apparently injected necessary liquidity by lending gold for longer periods than normal -- a year or more, rather than three-month or six-month periods.

As the gold loans have matured this year, in an environment of depressed gold prices and sub-1% lease rates, some of these central banks chose not to renew the loans, thus drying up liquidity.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/09/2001; 10:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51620)
"A Perspective on Gold Valuation" by James Turk
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/TurkGoldValue.htmlMr. Turk writes...
-+-+-+-+-
These Gold loans are what has cheapened Gold. The central banks lend Gold to the mining companies (via the middleman bullion banks), so the mining companies have cheapened their own product. By hedging they have in effect increased the quantity of metal through the extension of credit.

What? They've created Gold 'out of thin air'?

Well, yes, sort of. They really haven't created Gold; all they have done is created 'Gold substitutes'. These substitutes are extensions of credit in effect masquerading as Gold. And the central banks have pulled off this masquerade much longer than I thought them capable of doing, but for how much longer?

I don't have the answer to that question; no one does. But we all know the answer to how it will end? Badly. Just as all extensions of credit inevitably end. There will be widespread defaults.

As a consequence, many people who think they own Gold will find out that they in fact only owned a Gold substitute, and they will end up owning nothing if the Gold substitute they owned was defaulted upon.
justamereBear
(04/09/2001; 10:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51621)
Invisible Hand

I have not quoted scripture for many years BUT, let he that is without sin cast the first stone.

j'Bear
justamereBear
(04/09/2001; 10:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51622)
Randy LeSin InvisibleHand


Randy 51620 HEAR!!! HEAR!!!

BTW my last, 51621 was directed at invisible hand 51609 and leSin 51611. It certainly changes ones thinking if one "walks a mile in another mans shoes"
Al Fulchino
(04/09/2001; 10:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51623)
Le Sin/All TedW doesn't need my defense but...
LeSin (04/09/01; 08:00:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 51611)
@ tedw #51608
Sir, respectfully, please take it outside. Your simplistic attempt to rally support is weak and ill-informed at best.

me: Simplistic? When does push come to shove with your line or reasoning? Shall we wait until we are further tested? Shall we wait for further proof of their butchery? Shall we wait for our cozy lifestyle to be devoid of comfort before we awaken from our slumber? Watch as Putin attempts his co- opting of Europe to seperate them from the US. Watch as the Red Chinese poke us from our backside. Trade with them without consequence if you think you can. You may need your gold for more than wealth preservation.
end me

Oh, how quick we are to rally our young sons and send them to war all because of the BLUNDERS of Govt heads, Greed of Multi-national companies & bankers, together with irresponcable career military brass bafoons.

Me: I do not recall Ted ever saying its his wish to send our young people war. Further more he has not implied it. In reality his approach will save more in the long run.
end me

Trade and lots of It between nations, all nations - keeps them from war - boycotts & trade blocks are the corner stones & fundamental building blocks of wars.
Peace & Trade "S"

Me: yes trade and lots of it will help, but would you trade with a burglar who steals from your neighbors homes, kills off those that disagree with them just so you can get your message across to them? Yes you might and they will pretend to listen, at least to your face. I will not. Will you remember what Lenin said? Repeating as best I remember it. "You will sell us the rope which we will hang you by" and one last comment on trade. Try trading with Osama bin Laden. Oh and would you say for us all? Think about it. Here we go again ET! Good ideas, bad ideas, good people, bad people.
end me


To All: If anyone else here feels as LeSin does, I would recomend that you DO save up some gold. When the time comes and if it does that the Red Chinese threaten us or act on that threat, I will not be one to tell you I told you so. I would get no prideful enjoyment from that.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/09/2001; 11:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51624)
justamereBear @ # 51621
Sir j'Bear

Good to see you out the closet. We must not let bumper stickers do our witnessing for us. I believe the Person you quoted also said, "Whosoever therefore shall be ashamed of me and my words in this adulterous and sinful generation; of him also shall the Son of man be ashamed, when he cometh in the glory of his father with the holy angels."

Please do not be offended by this post. I just cannot help myself, it lifts my spirit when I see some post the words of my lord and savior.

Very respectfully,

HBM
jayzee
(04/09/2001; 12:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51625)
TVX Gold squeeze play
Please indulge a TVX stockholder. I have heard that someone (bondholders?) is pulling a squeeze play on TVX to try to obtain the assets of the company for pennies on the dollar. A few months ago TVX had a REVERSE split where they gave 1 share for 5 shares to increase the share price to over $1 to remain listed. The last time I checked the price was 75 cents a share which means that you are buying the original shares at 15 cents. Check out TVX because they have some great assets, including the Greek mines that will be in production in a couple of years where the cost per ounce will be very low.

(1) I think that TVX is a great bargin.
(2) Please consider helping TVX shareholders (like me) so
that these manipulators will not succeed in shafting us.
They will fail if the price goes back over $1 and TVX
keeps its listing. So please buy if you can.
As always, do your own research.
Orville Goldenbacher
(04/09/2001; 12:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51626)
Al Fulchino #51611
Keep in mind, this all could have been averted with a simple apology, a little diplomacy. No, but that would have been too simple. GWB has all the tact of an Orcish Grunt.
Lafisrap
(04/09/2001; 12:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51627)
Lease Rates, Randy msg# 51619)
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
***
Ms. Baker writes...
- - - - -
The fact that lease rates continued to climb even as short positions are being reduced suggests that the supply of gold being lent to the market is, in fact, tightening.
***

But gold lease rates as shown in the chart at the above link are presently declining. It seems lease rates were previously increasing, yes, but with little or no affect on the POG, which is currently at about $258.

Randy, why don't those who have obligations to deliver gold in the future (gold mines?) simply buy paper gold at these very low prices, and then deliver the cheap paper gold to satisfy their obligations? Is this not a solution for gold mines who are obligated to deliver gold in the future and for whom the cost of production is higher than the current POG? Or, is the paper gold not an acceptable form of gold for satisfying their obligations?

Is it possible that those with obligations to deliver gold in the furute are betting that the POG will decline further? That is an explanation that makes sense, no?

Thanks,


Lafisrap
Lafisrap
(04/09/2001; 12:58:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51628)
Interest rates set by the Fed
ttp://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0409/f_ap_0409_32.sml
Remember the recent information posted here that described Fed interest rates as following the rates of the three-month Treasury securities? Well, if that is the case, then it is likely that the Fed will soon cut interest rates in accordance with three-month Treasury securities. Let's watch and see if the relationship holds.

excerpt from the link ***
The Treasury Department sold $9 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 3.820 percent, down from 4.125 percent last week. An additional $8 billion was sold in six-month bills at a rate of 3.815 percent, down from 4.020 percent.
***
Lafisrap
(04/09/2001; 13:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51629)
corrected link
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0409/f_ap_0409_32.smlThe previous link was missing its "h" in the "http" part.
megatron
(04/09/2001; 13:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51630)
jayzee
Your in pretty deep, buddy! Been there, can sympathize. Lots of companies have excellent prospective properties but can they hang on? I, sadly, doubt it very much. Most of these are going to be picked off for pennies on the dollar.
Remember Greenstone?
Belgian
(04/09/2001; 14:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51631)
Gold trading activities of the ESF....
YIHAAA, again a shool-example of how it works.
Today, the Gold-ticker, made a nice smooth, natural follow up on the Asian morning-run up. Volume in unhedged miners was suspectly weak, during price-appreciation. And as usual I could set the clock on the exact moment of Knock-knockie of Big Brother ESF : 261,45 tick, tack, too >>>258,45 !
Nothing new fellow Knights ! Plenty of knock-knock statistics available.

The only reason for mentionning is : if one should chart these nice and smooth, natural up-ticking of POG during these 14 ours of Asian + European gold-appreciation...it is hard to believe that in one strike, that perfect pattern, has any reason to be destroyed at a regular given exact moment in New York. These up-patterns are not eroded but simply axed ! It is a pity I can't plot such a series of intraday-evidences (24 hours) of global manipulative action
on a tick to tick chart.
First, I tought that the SM-futures-opening jumps were a reason why this was happening. But why isn't POG already eroded or axed in Europ time then ?

Is 260$ a new Derivative pain-point ? Is there fear that a break through on 260$, will signal and anticipate ALARM ?
Are there any short-specialists on this forum who can explain us the art of shorting tactics (wars) ?


Tree in the Forest
(04/09/2001; 14:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51632)
Propaganda
When I was in 7th grade (50's), I had a very good science teacher. I believe his name was Mr. Saunders. He set aside some time to discuss propaganda. Learning to recognize propaganda and differentiating it from truth is part of science but is also a valuable lesson in life. He not only taught us about government propaganda but also media propaganda and advertising propaganda. Today he would probably be considered politically incorrect because his teachings liberate the mind from the bullsh*t of government, media, special interest groups etc. I doubt they teach anything like this today. Mind you, topics covered were pretty much apolitical. This was not indoctrination; it was to free you from indoctrination. This re-post of a re-post from our own Journeyman and Pandagold is worth thinking about.

Journeyman (3/6/2001; 8:03:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49460)
That "barbarous relic" and other victims @Pandagold, ALL

Pandagold (03/04/01; msg#: 49360): "Up until the first world war there was no history of hate between Germany and England. We are both from the same stock, and if we were involved in any battles it was both on the same side. Then suddenly, almost overnight we were taught to hate. But, as that first Christmas of 1914 showed, even though war had been declared, the hate was not there in the common man. Who will we be told to hate the next time? It shows how media ... is used to manipulate our thinking and our actions.
Control a people's thinking, and you control the people."

J-MAN: Indeed. "They" are so confident, they even have a key part of the process nailed and named - - and sometimes they even fess-up to the whole thing:

"Well Jim, it is very important in a democracy that you have the support of the people. One of the reasons why George Bush [Sr.] had to demonize Saddam Hussein was to get the support of the people, and Bill Clinton has done the same thing, Vice President Gore has done the same thing with respect to Milosevic." -Raymond Tanter, Fmr. Natl. Security Council Staffer,
WATCH IT!, MSNBC,
2 Apr. 1999, ~11:56:45 AM EST

"Demonization" is clearly a part of all "their" modern war-
mongering - - - and "they" use it elsewhere too:

_Gerry Spence_: "It was called the demonization of the defandant.... Look what they did at Waco. They turned everybody against those people at Waco. They said that they were sex fiends, and that they were child molesters, and by the time it was all over, the next morning after that fire there was a poll, and I think it was by USA TODAY, that showed that 87% of America was in favor of what the FBI did. Now here's what they did, they burned ...twenty-two, twenty-five little kids, little babies on a, as if they were on a spit, they burned those little children to death. And the American public said "That's all right," and you know
why? Because [they] had been demonized, those people had been demonized. ... they do this by pre-trial publicity. They did this to Randy Weaver." -CNN Burden Of Proof, Oct 14, 1996, 12:45 PM{TC00G 08:05}

They did it to gold too - - - that "barbarous relic," remember?
Regards,
Journeyman
Al Fulchino
(04/09/2001; 15:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51633)
Dear Orville
Orville Goldenbacher (04/09/01; 12:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51626)
Al Fulchino #51611
Keep in mind, this all could have been averted with a simple apology, a little diplomacy. No, but that would have been too simple. GWB has all the tact of an Orcish Grunt.

me:
Dear Sir,
International waters have been agreed upon. In fact, Red China was a recent party to such an agreement if my facts are correct (newscast of last week). Anyways, we fly up their coastlines for a reason. They and others do the same up and down ours. It is sort of like a private behind the scenes discussion amongst enemies. We each tolerate it.

Second and more importantly, assume for a moment that we should believe thatwe were in international waters/boundaries. I know many Americans do not believe there is anything good or honest about us but this country is NOT the focus of eveil in the world. We do do some things right, some things moral and some of these things we do very well. So assume my friend that we were in international waters, assume it is correct that the Red Chinese pilot DID initiate contact through purpose or recklessness. What in damnation should we apologize for.

All Red Chinese apologists please step forward and ask the Red Chinese if they gave Bill C a little money for some technology! Ask about population control policies! Ask about free speech! And then!!!!!! Ask for an apology ..after you do this, tell me what they told you.


Everyone read a little thing called the book on Russian Psychopolotics, either email me or if I get even one request for it I will post the link.


Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/01/1904; 00:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51634)
Take heed of a gentleman who's been a leader in this field for nearly thirty years...
I am certain that in a short span of time these shall prove to be prescient words, and most helpful to all who give them due consideration today.

Please read the following excerpt from today's Commentary & Review by Michael Kosares, the president of Centennial Precious Metals:

"We expect gold demand to increase steadily as investors move to insulate themselves against the developing problems with energy, the stock market and the banks. Please keep in mind our standard warning that to wait until the general public stampedes to the protection of gold is to run the risk that you will be shut out of the market.

There is no chance that the gold industry with its tiny infrastructure when compared with the equities' industry will be able to accomodate demand if a run to gold should commence. Please consider this carefully and act accordingly. Our best advice is to cover your needs now while things are still relatively calm."
Strad Master
(04/09/2001; 16:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51635)
Al Fulchino
"Russian Psychopolitics" Sounds fascinating! I've heard that such a book exists. Here is my request for you to post the link. Many thanks.

So far I think GWB has done a remarkably good job handling this China mess. He (meaning GWB and the adminitration) has demonstrated a real understanding of geopolitics, and presented a tactful, measured, and firm positiion to the Chineese. It would not be good for the world's only remaining super-power to knuckle-under to the bullying of a bunch of third-world thugs. Thank God this didn't happen during the previous administration!
Mr Gresham
(04/09/2001; 16:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51636)
Belgian
"Is 260$ a new Derivative pain-point ? Is there fear that a break through on 260$, will signal and anticipate ALARM ?"

Why, no, sir. 260 is the OFFICIAL price of gold. Until it isn't.

They know no-one will go to jail for this, so why not do it? The history won't be written for years after it's all over.

(Actually, I wonder what the budget for Gold Control is. It's probably cheap, compared to those for Dollar Protection, and Stock Ramping. Anyway, it's all OPM. And, once enthusiasm takes over, the Gold Control budget is shot. "An ounce of prevention...")
Mr Gresham
(04/09/2001; 16:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51637)
Great Quotes
I'm sure I could look it up online and get it right, but thinking back to reading it 20 years ago, didn't someone say something like:

"Woe to him who is angry with his neighbor without cause. Agree with thy neighbor, whilst you are in a way with him. Otherwise, he will hail you into court, and you will not leave until he has grabbed your last farthing..."

or some such (I'd welcome a correction if needed...)
-- think I got the spirit of it?
Journeyman
(04/09/2001; 17:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51638)
Getting it straight @tedw, Al Fulchino (&Tree in the Forest msg#:51632)

tedw msg#:51608: THE CHINESE LEADER ARE ARROGANT,EVIL, AND
AGGRESSORS.

tedw, you've got that straight!

But your statement applies to American leaders as well. Or don't
invading Panama and Grenada, against international law, blowing
up an Algerian pharmaceutical plant with Tomahawk missiles,
bombing Serbia (against international law and the provisions of
the NATO charter), using CS gas (outlawed by the Geneve
Convention even for use in warfare) against men, women AND
_children_ in the Branch Davidian compound near Waco, Texas - - -
just to mention a few - - - count?

Tree in the Forest (msg#: 51632 Propaganda) certainly got it
straight, particularly in quoting Pandagold:

Pandagold (03/04/01; msg#: 49360): "Up until the first world war
there was no history of hate between Germany and England. We are
both from the same stock, and if we were involved in any battles
it was both on the same side. Then suddenly, almost overnight we
were taught to hate. But, as that first Christmas of 1914 showed,
even though war had been declared, the hate was not there in the
common man. Who will we be told to hate the next time? It shows
how media ... is used to manipulate our thinking and our actions.
Control a people's thinking, and you control the people."

So, do you want to hurt the Chinese _people_ or is it their
leaders you don't like? Do the Chinese _people_ hate the
American _people_ for illegally bombing their embassy in Belgrade
- - - or is it the American _leaders_ they don't like? And Sir
Fulchino, was it the American _people_ that sold-out to the
Chinese _leaders_ or was it the American _leader_, Bill Clinton?

Do the world's problems come from the _people_? Or do they come
from somewhere else?

We ALL need to get it straight: If we do not do so, we will
continue to be manipulated and controlled, and not to our
benefit.


Regards,
Journeyman
ET
(04/09/2001; 17:20:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51639)
Lew Rockwell
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/chinaisright.html
From the article;

"The message is obvious: the US can do whatever it wants with its military, but believes
itself exempt from the very laws it wants to apply to others. This attitude engenders
hatred around the world.

"Though no one in the US cares to remember, the Chinese have not forgotten the US
role in the so-called Opium Wars. In this 19th-century drug war, military force was
used to addict the Chinese to drugs so as to create customers for opium. Nor have
they forgotten the Boxer Rebellion, when US troops � in pursuit of continuing
economic control � burned and looted the ancient imperial compound. Nor, to take
more recent examples, have they forgotten the US threatening them twice in the 1950s
with nuclear annihilation for responding to huge Taiwanese troop movements to the
islands of Quemoy and Matsu near the mainland.

"To say there are double standards at work here is a wild understatement. Despite all
the mistreatment, Beijing doesn't want war. It wants the US to behave like a
responsible trading partner, not the world hegemon it has become. But there is only so
much humiliation and bloodshed that a nation can be subjected to before its citizens
demand reprisal.

"Washington probably doesn't want war either. What it wants is a license to spy on and
otherwise invade the world, killing and maiming whenever the time seems right, and
never having to be held responsible. Washington wants what every bully wants: the
freedom to beat people up and never pay the price."
Mr Gresham
(04/09/2001; 17:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51640)
Dagnabbity! Need some HUMOR 'round here!
http://www.satirewire.com/news/0103/panic.shtml"MARKET EXPERTS SAY NOW IS NO TIME TO PANIC;
TIME TO PANIC COMES NEXT TUESDAY
Market Simply Undergoing "Healthy Correction" Until Devastating Freefall

"Washington, D.C. (SatireWire.com) � Despite the sharp downturn in the stock market, economic and financial experts today advised investors to remain calm and continue to hold on for the long-term, which they said would end abruptly next Tuesday when a market panic wipes out 90 percent of the world's wealth.


"I realize things look a little dodgy right now, but this is no time for people to lose their cool," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. "God knows there will be plenty of time for that come Tuesday, when everything you've worked for vanishes in a matter of seconds."

R Powell
(04/09/2001; 18:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51641)
Journeyman 51638
Agree and well said.
Rich
auspec
(04/09/2001; 18:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51642)
Who's Next?
We Want FreeFrom a communication from Paul van Eeden:

<In today's Wall Street Journal, the lead article stated that President
Bush's Energy Plan would increase the United States' reliance on nuclear
power. "Senior Administration officials said that the strategy is designed
to relieve some of the pressure on the natural gas industry. [They] said
nuclear power should account for a higher percentage of U.S. electricity
than the current level of 20%." Mr. Cheney said that some of the 65 power
plants that the U.S. must build every year should be nuclear. Currently
there are no plans in the US to build nuclear power plants.

The Bush Administration's shift towards nuclear power is in response to the
environmental disadvantages of burning fossil fuels, which release
contamination into the atmosphere. Specifically, the issue seems to revolve
around carbon dioxide, a gas thought to contribute to the "greenhouse
effect". Nuclear power is one of the cleanest sources of power available. In
a related event, Canada has decided to re-open two of the four nuclear
reactors in Ontario that were shut down for maintenance.

**The uranium bear market is over**
In my opinion nuclear fuel is one of the best sources of power available and
it looks like the bear market in uranium is coming to an end. On March 7,
2000 I mailed a report to clients recommending Cameco at $11.50 a share.
The stock is now trading at $23 and it is still the best uranium company
available.>>

Platinum, palladium, and now uranium will trade along the lines of market fundamentals. Who will be freed next? IMBY
{someone's back yard is going to get toasty warm}



tg
(04/09/2001; 20:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51643)
journeyman, le sin, the invisible hand, et
Pleased to see some thinkers remain on the forum. I was starting to wonder if all the thinkers had left.

I find it perculiar that some people on this forum can see financial manipulations but not other manipulations that go on.

The USA is the sole superpower or as the French now call it a hyperpower.

The express interest of the US is not to bring peace and christian values to the rest of the world as people like tedw would believe, but rather it is to look after the economic interests of corporate America. The USA has chosen empire over individual liberty

The USA today does not care about its citizens nor those of the rest of the world. Its sole concern is big buisiness.

I have no problem with that, and i play the game as best i can.However I will not be led down a path of hatred towards other nationalities because it suits the administration at that time.

The USA is evil when it suits its interests and the USA is saintly when it suits its interests. The only problem is that one can never know the truth without a free press. We have no free press. Thank God for the internet and forums like this. I would hate to see it over-run by people who read the propaganda in the newspapers and report it back here.
EagleOne
(04/09/2001; 20:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51644)
Mr. GRESHAM per your request. Msg. # 51640

How about a six-pack of these? Topic may actually be gold related if rumors prove true that the catalytic converter contains two oz. of gold.

http://www.theonion.com/onion3712/disposable_car.html

Hope this works. Poster is often linkage impaired.


Peter Asher
(04/09/2001; 20:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51645)
Strad Master (4/9/2001; 16:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 51635)
'Evening Strad. (How goes the countdown?)

The event would never have happened in the previous administration, they had Klinton in their pocket (book) and did not need to resort to an 'incident'.

I imagine though, that they knew they couldn't buy the current group and this was the alternative.
EagleOne
(04/09/2001; 20:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51646)
Mr. Gresham
http://www.theonion.com/onion3712/disposable_car.htmlOne last shot for the link.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/09/2001; 20:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51647)
I Can't think of a Good Title
Sirs....PLEASE!!!!

1'st please M.K. I appologise for using some of your bandwidth for this post.

Journeyman...RIGHT ON!

Gentlemen:
I due appreciate your patriotism, but when does the meddling and involvement end...when young men are dragged through the streets?? If the cause was so noble would this not fortify the conviction that the cause was right??
If someone backed into your car would you not expect an apology?
If someone was "CAUGHT" looking in your bedroom window would you not AT LEAST expect an apology?
Does being a super power carry the weight of that much VANITY?
Is "I'm sorry" worth 24 sons and daughters? ... apparantly not!....and TO HELL with the plane.

Approximatley 8 years ago there was an incident where a US nuclear sub was caught in Canadian territorial waters under the artic ice flows....What was the US response???.....If you can't defend it you don't deserve to own it!!!

I do like the American people, but the arrogance and meddling of your government somtimes P'SS ME OFF.

AS Panda pointed out we are told whom to like and whom to hate. THROW out your T.V. sets. because that is what makes "sheeple" out of all of us.

"thou shalt not KILL"....where did that come from anyway?
"do unto others as you would have them do unto you"....where did that come from?
Since some quote the scriptures around here...

Seriously, if the shoe was on the other foot, an American plane down off California coast and somebody's son was dead, and the damaged Chinese SPY PLANE had to land on US soil what would the spin be then? Oh.. wouldn't be an incident I'm sure!!! The crew and the plane would be immediatley returned......(if it wasn't shot down first!)

Since it is never you nor I who start these wars/confrontations ( or your sons and daughters) since there is no personal hatred why should they pay the price?
Rather I suggest....Under the rule of chivilry if a deul is called you don't "job it out" to someone else!

I suggest .... that upon being elected, an oath is taken that they are personally responsible for their actions and all politicians of both sides of the confrontation be given clubs and broad swords and put on some island somewhere to "FIGURE IT OUT" Just maybe then you will get some RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT.

Maybe some other poster was right... these confrontations are created to divert attention from the SM or stimulate the economy

Sorry again M.K.

May your chalice overflow,

SOTG

Peter Asher
(04/09/2001; 20:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51648)
Hey Mr G.

Even with the eye of knowledgeable humor on it, they still don't "get it�.

Re >>> God knows there will be plenty of time for that come Tuesday, when everything you've worked for vanishes in a matter of seconds." <<<

Everything they worked for vanished the moment they exchanged it for stock certificates. All that they have is the �hope� that someone else will at some point give them every thing �they� worked for!
Al Fulchino
(04/09/2001; 21:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51649)
Mr Strad Master /Journeyman/ET
http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/7006/psychopolitics.htmlI am glad that my offer was not long unaccepted. Anyone who spends the time reading the entire piece, linked above will look at the world a bit differently or will have some thoughts verified. Happy reading, and share it with someone. Better yet print it off and leave it on a coffee table somewhere. And for a real interesting lesson, show it to your highschool or college age children, as I have. They won't ever think of classmate Johnny, who is on Ritalin, the same way again. Happy reading!

Journeyman, Hi how are you?
you write:
And Sir Fulchino, was it the American _people_ that sold-out to the
Chinese _leaders_ or was it the American _leader_, Bill Clinton?

It was Mr Bill and a cadre of people, including those who chose to ignore much about Bill, in order to just put anyone in who wasn't a better man. There comes a point where most democrats, voters and party activists will gather around and support a snake, as long as it is theirs and verifies who they are so that no one messes with their little fiefdoms. Sad to say, that the democratic party and most of its supporters have abandoned their heritage.

ET, I have to say, you really suprised me. I had nothing to do with any Chinese history, and while I am at it, I have never fostered slavery. Dear ET how far can you go with von Mises? Did you foster any opium sales???? All nations in the world have transgressed at one time or another. It is all wrong. Do you think the RED Chinese perhaps bring up all the wrongs commited against them in order to hide what they do to their own people? How bizarre that they blame us while doing what they themselves do. It only preys on the good minded people of our country that we should feel any guilt today. I did nothing to the Chinese people and it is DOUBTFUL that anyone here reading this did anything wrong either. Look instead at the Red Chinese government. Stop biting your nails over our actions, WE have done nothing wrong concerning opium, boxer rebellions etc. How long must the past sins of another generation haunt us all the while we turn our eyes and our COMMENTS away from their own lack of free speech, slave labor camps, suppression of religion, and how about their little family planning clinics?

respectfully submitted

Journeyman
(04/09/2001; 23:06:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51650)
Where does the buck stop? @Al Fulchino, Le Sin, tg, Et, ALL

I agree, Sir Al: You and I are _not_ responsible for the Boxer
Rebellion - - - or selling opium to the Chinese. At least not
very responsible and if at all only thru dubious association with
a group of folks who claim they spoke for our ancestors based on
a majority vote.

Now this brings up a very, very deep and sticky question: Who's
responsible for what governments do? If you voted for the the
losing side, are you _still_ responsible for what happens if the
_winning_ side screws up? How about if you don't vote at all?

O.K. Now for the tough part. Most governments and other folks
don't care. They lump everyone who was born or lives within
certain borders as responsible for whatever the government that
claims that bordered area does. This leads to gross miscarriages
of justice.

A couple of examples: Saddam Hussein, before the U.S. et.al.
bombing during Desert Massacre, was hated by most Iraqis. But at
least 200,000 of them were none-the-less killed in the bombing
and as a result of the "collateral" damage.

Example 2: The Serbian people in some of the largest and longest-
lasting demonstrations in history proved they really disliked
their leader Slobodan Milosevic just a few months before the U.S.
led and illegal NATO bombing. None-the-less at least 7,000 of
them were killed because of what the NATO leaders (criminals
according to their own rules) claimed their hated Milosevic had
done.

And finally consider what this approach, holding local
inhabitants responsible for what their leaders do, can lead to.
What about all those folks from California. Are they _all_
responsible for the governments there that prevented the building
of power generation facilities over the last ten years?

And: Demonstrating unusual discrimination, Ossama bin Ladin, in
an interview with Diane Sawyer in 1997, stated that he was
declaring war on the U.S. Government and the U.S. Military only.
However in "Troops to Kosovo; Terror for Americans?" February 24,
1999, Phyllis Schlafley reported that bin Laden claimed he would
now go after any Americans "including those who pay taxes."

So _are_ you responsible for what those people in Washington do?
Because many folks from foreign countries violated by U.S. action
and often with access to biological weapons (often originally
supplied by the U.S. Government) will act as if you and your
family are indeed responsible.

Keeping that in mind, do you think it might be a good idea to
discourage those Washington D.C. folks from messing all over the
hood?

Regards,
Journeyman
tg
(04/09/2001; 23:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51651)
al fulchino
A quote from the link you gave -

"Psychopolitics is the art and science of asserting and maintaining dominion over the thoughts and loyalties of the individuals, officers, bureaus, and masses, and the effecting of the conquest of the enemy nations through "mental healing."

That is exactly what is happening in the US today.

Also, no one is saying China is without guilt or wrong doings, either today or in the past. The point of contention is that people like you have had your thoughts and loyalties so brain- washed that you never envisage that the US ever commits a wrong.
Simply Me
(04/09/2001; 23:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51652)
Spy vs. Spy
This whole Chinese/US air collision situation is as absurd as the old Mad Comic books' "Spy vs. Spy" cartoons. We spy on them, they spy on us. It's a moot point, not even worth arguing about.

As for the air collision, it was the Chinese pilot's fault. He was a known hotdogger. We had complained about him to the Chinese before. He had a habit of flying up under our larger airplanes' belly and popping up right in front of their noses to scare the crap out of them. This time he misjudged and came up too close and couldn't get out of the way fast enough. Our plane was too big to maneuver out of the way, too. It was the Chinese pilot's fault.

The Chinese saying the US airplane caused the collision is like saying, "It's your fault. Your Zamboni cut off my Ferrari."

Now, I think the smart thing to do would be apologize, get our people back and then GIVE Taiwan all the military equipment they want. Here China...here's your apology with a Stinger Missle chaser. Oh, and by the way, it WAS your fault.

The longer they hold our people hostage, the worse the trade with China looks. US buys elsewhere. Prices rise. US Companies doing business in China lose money. Stocks slump. Americans already angry with Chinese gov't over hostage situation blame China for inflation, job losses and investment losses. The sabre rattling gets louder. US cuts interest rates to try and float economy. Euro holds interest rates steady. Foreigner's sell out of weaker, riskier dollar...buy Euros.

Does this mean war? Who knows. But, between this and the energy games, I'm looking for the gold trade timeline to speed up soon. It's the perfect time for a spike. When no one, outside of us die-hard gold advocates and a few mining stock holders, is looking.

I missed the announcement of the USAGold contest winners...but whoever you are, "Congratulations!"
simply


Seeker of the Grail
(04/09/2001; 23:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51653)
@ Simply Me
Dear Sir,

With respect to your post 51652,

"As for the air collision, it was the Chinese pilot's fault. He was a known hotdogger. We had complained about him to the
Chinese before. He had a habit of flying up under our larger airplanes' belly and popping up right in front of their noses to
scare the crap out of them. This time he misjudged and came up too close and couldn't get out of the way fast enough. Our
plane was too big to maneuver out of the way, too. It was the Chinese pilot's fault."

Could you please post the link to the information so we can verify the credibility. Sheeple believe blindly and I'm sure the other members of this forum would like to make up their own minds rather than just accept it as so.

SOTG
tg
(04/09/2001; 23:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51654)
al fulchino
Something i forgot to add, you talk about China having

1/suppression of religon. Better that then manipulation of religon to suit the status quo. If they cant manipulate it they get rid of it, just like they did in Waco

2/slave labour camps. - Im not sure they exist in China, but if they do are they similar to minimum wage in the US. It would suprise you to know how many people live below the poverty line. Im talking third world numbers. Do you now that the US has the largest prison population in the world per capita. Is that similar to a slave labour camp. Why is there such a huge prison population in the US - is it because of the dis-enfranchisement of the average citizen??

3/ free speech. - dont even get started on that. You THINK you have free speech and freedom of the press. As a long time forum member i would think that you would know better by now. I guess that psycho-politics has worked well
Mr Gresham
(04/10/2001; 00:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51655)
Peter, EagleOne, Strad, Al
Peter -- yes, it was gone then. But today's good news: one of my clients - single mom with two boys -- actually did rescue her inheritance (only savings) out of a stock broker's clutches (boy did they howl, and psychoanalyze/intimidate her right on the spot, but she did stick to it) on my recommendation last week after the rally.

I think I've said it before: I've studied CULT GROUPS. We could call them all "Stockies"? They sure fit the profile. So now I'm a cult deprogrammer?

EagleOne -- thanks for the Onion link. I keep forgetting to go get refreshed there.

Strad -- good to see you here again. And how's the little fiddle?

Al -- Your passion and integrity are your strengths. I'm glad to see you posting here again, and I didn't read those posts today in depth -- no time -- but are you really staying with the spirit of the message you want to be about here? (I guess I count on you for that special "N.H. something" my Mom had that I don't get from anyone out here in the West very much -- danged if I know what it is, but I'm always impressed when I hear your best thoughts!)View Yesterday's Discussion.

Strad Master
(04/10/2001; 01:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51656)
Al Fulchino, Peter Asher, & Mr.Gresham
AL: Thanks so much for the link. It looks fascinating! I can't wait to read it.

PETER & MR GRESHAM - Thanks for the warm welcome in response to a mere posting of mine. I am always lurking here, but I don't always have something to contribute regarding gold. I'm still just sitting on my little pile of gold coins awaiting it's long-promised trip into the stratosphere. There is a lot I could post regarding the China thing but that may be too far afield from the topic at hand. I do think that some of the postings that have shown up here of late are pretty wrong-headed. Sadly, people forget that the regime in China is responsible for more murder, torture, imprisonment, and general suffering than almost any other in history (excepting, perhaps, Stalinist Russia). To equate anything that the US does with the evil wrought by the scummy totalitarians in China is not only preposterous but frightening.

As to the little Strads - all are well (except for a broken finger one sustained last Friday). The newest one is due May 18 and, as I've promised before, I'll be sure to post news of her arrival as soon as posssible. That's one off-topic posting that MK will definitely permit.(:-))))
Simply Me
(04/10/2001; 02:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51657)
@Seeker of the Grail
The news was from radio, WWTN-FM Nashville, TN, to be specific. TV/Newspapers are too left wing. Most internet news takes too long to search and read.

Also heard several families of Chinese nationals residing in Hong Kong have reported their loved ones missing after they went in to mainland China to visit friends or other family members. The missing are professors, engineers ...educated types.

Where are you in the world? I have nothing against individual people....just Communist governments. After all, the Chinese people weren't given a choice after they got rid of the Emporer. Don't you think they'd enjoy voting out the government "bums" they don't like? Like this one....
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Mao Tse Tung

We will watch gold rise together, yes?
simply (closer to Granny than Sir)
Simply Me
(04/10/2001; 02:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51658)
(No Subject)
Yes, I know Mao is dead.
Rockgrabber
(04/10/2001; 02:45:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51659)
US consumers confident and out of reality
Consumer confidence is holding up now?? Does everyone want to spend their money before they loose their jobs? Does everyone want to buy a new dil@O for themselfes before they cant buy the electricity? They are really looking to ram themselfes. OK I am off now to do some research. I will post interesting findings.
Rockgrabber
(04/10/2001; 03:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51660)
Interesting stuff all over!!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?=/chronicle/archive/2001/04/08/MN118410.DTL First may I share this.

California Energy Crisis stuff (great stuff good Ol mr. Gray Davis wanted to tell the people this before this happened. "To utilities and the financial community, let me say this: I reject the irresponsible notion that we can afford to allow our major utilities to go bankrupt, he said. "Our fate is tied to their fate." And then he says this, " Bankruptcy would mean that Californians would be subject to electricity blackouts. Public safety would be jepordized Businesses would close. Jobs would be lost. And our economy would suffer a devestating blow."

Right on!! Super our fate is teid to theirs and they have and our declaring bankruptcy!! Amd consummer confidence say what this month? Is this just a fact to show how stupid we are as people?
Rockgrabber
(04/10/2001; 03:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51661)
Inflationary Rescession
This is not a good cycle. As we are loosing jobs, and personal equity positions are declining, prices are rising. People are not going to like this. The dollar will have to loose its reserve currency status just for everyone to suddenly be holding enough dollars to pay their bills. Hyper Inflation.
Rockgrabber
(04/10/2001; 03:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51662)
Sorry, I will go back to school.
I am sorry for my spelling and everything before you go on and read my posts. I never did pay much attention in school (and now I am glad for my insticts). But I do wish I would have learned my grammer and spelling, but I just did not. Please do put up with it. It does not make me less perceptive. It just makes it harder for me to share my thoughts. Sorry if it offends you, stupidity offends me as well.
Seeker of the Grail
(04/10/2001; 05:23:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51663)
@ Rockgrabber, @ Simply ME
Dear Simply Me,
Sorry about the wrong gender distinction on my part. I'm from Canada. I don't believe everything I hear on the radio. Spin doctors are in all media.

Sir Rockgrabber,
Conveying the message is more important than spelling to me. But, If you wish, because it bothers you, type your post in Word Perfect or some word processer, do a spell check, then cut and paste your post to the posting area of USA GOLD "new post". BTW my spelling is probbably worse than yours.(:-))

May your chalice overflow,
SOTG
Peter Asher
(04/10/2001; 06:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51664)
Mr G

Well, maybe they are howling and psycho/intimidating enough betting pool contributors to make a difference; the overnights are up sharply.

I wonder if this is a response to the possibility of collapsed trade with China being bullish for US stocks.
Belgian
(04/10/2001; 06:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51665)
POO = UP and POG = DOWN ????
S.Saville (GE) has done some "staring" at 30 yrs Dollar-Index, as well. Have a peep at his chart, intuition and interpretation. Color the chart's background with a red color of 90 TRILLION Global DEBT !
Note, that the '85 ATH was build with a 5-impulse Elliott Wave-pattern. Idem for the '95-'01 pattern !
ABC-down pattern from ATH '85 :
- A : down '85 to '95
- B : up '95 to 01 (?) - not completed ?
- C : down ? - start is confirmed when 100/90 zone is pierced.

How can we possibly explain the divergent behaviour of POO and POG ?
OPEC is control of the Price as never before. They are managing the POO at their opportunistic goodwill.
There are no disturbing elements in play who could prevent them from setting their price-target(s). Example : Schroder (Germany) has some friendly reunion with (German-speaking) Putin about, Russia's debts to Germany. Schroder can't trade Russian oil or gas as debt-repayment. POO not disturbed. Kazakhstan oilfields still in progress. POO not (yet) disturbed. Saddam oil-overhang and world growth slow down...don't disturb POO. No explicit dollar weakness and therefore not a reason for a sustained strong POO.
Can we conclude that OPEC is to revalue its underground oil-reserves with a progressing price in function of keeping consumption at normal level, adjusted to economic activity ?

But, where and how does this relate to POG ? Is oil not interested anymore in its blood-brother "gold" ? Is manipulated POG left for what it is ? Is it Rothshield, balancing oil to pog ? Because oil/up and pog/down is a relationship, anyway . Is the inverse oil/pog relation, the ultimate evidence that Gold is the master in disguise for the oncomming systemic collapse ? And can oil as a worldcommodity, adapt and anticipate, freely ? Why has POO so suddenly decoupled from a 5 year dollar-rise, with an economic slow-down on top of it ? Is the Israel/Palestinian
pseudo-war, an oil accomplice ? Is Bush using his father's tactics of deliberately building on "TENSIONS" (Taiwanesque)to justify the SM debacle that will occur during his coming 4 years ?

The least we can say is that *inter-relations* of currencies/oil/gold/economy...are deviating from the good old reciproques.
Bush administration foresees recovery....*translation :
the coming disastre was (is) not my fault ! Keep on carry-trading the Euro/Dollar ! W'll adjust all simultaniously our interest rates to the japanse zero level...or something like that.

Footnote : Fibonacci retracement of declining dollar-index
'85-'95 = 140 - 80 = 60x0,618(62%)=37 + 80 = target of 117 !
tedw
(04/10/2001; 07:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51666)
Day 10
http://www.usagold.comBoycott the Red Chinese B*****ds
nickel62
(04/10/2001; 07:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51667)
Too Funny to not post again and again and again.....Most likley true as well..
MARKET EXPERTS SAY NOW IS NO TIME TO PANIC;
TIME TO PANIC COMES NEXT TUESDAY
Market Simply Undergoing "Healthy Correction" Until Devastating Freefall

Washington, D.C. (SatireWire.com) � Despite the sharp downturn in the stock market, economic and financial experts today advised investors to remain calm and continue to hold on for the long-term, which they said would end abruptly next Tuesday when a market panic wipes out 90 percent of the world's wealth.


"I realize things look a little dodgy right now, but this is no time for people to lose their cool," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. "God knows there will be plenty of time for that come Tuesday, when everything you've worked for vanishes in a matter of seconds."

On Wall Street, meanwhile, analysts were generally upbeat. After several strong years, the market was due for a "healthy correction," said Merrill Lynch analyst Pamela Green, adding that the U.S. economy looks set to rebound by the fourth quarter, "unless next Tuesday comes first, which I'm afraid it will."

"While you must always be vigilant in market conditions such as we see today, we advise buying on dips and looking for value plays � stocks trading below their traditional book values � which we think stand a very good chance of moving upward until Tuesday, when everything goes to shit," Green wrote in a research note to investors today. "For the risk-averse, we particularly like defensive plays, such as aerospace and health care, which we believe will hold up well prior to collapsing entirely at 10:42 a.m. Eastern Standard Time."

Unlike other life experiences, such as retirement, there is no effective way to plan for a genuine market panic, said White House chief economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey. However, he added, people can be proactive once the panic does hit. Among his suggestions:

� Eat your young. "It seems barbaric, but trust me, if you don't do it, someone else will, and you'll end up kicking yourself."

� If you live in Manhattan and hear somebody sing "It's Rainin' Men," don't hum along. Jump out of the way.

� Diversify your portfolio. Always sound advice, no matter the economic climate.

� Set aside 10 percent of your pre-tax income for firearms.

� Will your online broker be there in a market panic? Maybe it's time you switched to a Schwab One account. (paid advertisement)

RECOMMEND
THIS PAGE
Copyright � 2001, SatireWire.

Back to Top



ET
(04/10/2001; 07:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51668)
Al

Hey Al - how you been doin? How's the art biz?

In my opinion Al, all these governments are searching for legitimacy at the moment. They are all attempting to justify their take. It would seem China is the "new" perceived enemy. I figure most of what we hear, if not all, is just propaganda.

The Invisible Hand
(04/10/2001; 08:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51669)
Off Topic: Yankees Go Home!
Yes, yesterday I posted already on the Chinese-US submarine thing because I don't understand tedw's reasoning.
I do however still not understand what this has to do with gold.
Or is the US Big Brother spying on the creation of the gold market in Shanghai (spelling, and my apologies for my other mistakes)?
But still if the Chinese government is at fault, why should the good of productive Chinese companies be boycotted?
Buena Fe
(04/10/2001; 08:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51670)
Horse Patooties
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtMNqRZFRXVybyBT04/10 09:42
Euro Slips; Central Bank Seen Cutting Interest Rate Too Slowly
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz


New York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The euro slipped against the yen and the dollar as traders speculated the European Central Bank will fail to cut interest rates fast enough to spur the 12- nation region's economy..........

........."The ECB is the only major central bank not to reduce borrowing costs as signs accumulate that a slowdown in record U.S. economic growth is spreading. The inaction is one reason for the euro's decline, many investors have said".........

JUST LIKE CHINA....STANDING UP TO THE US

Solomon Weaver
(04/10/2001; 09:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51671)
Silver production will fall with copper
COMEX copper drops to 21-month low on economy jitters
April 06, 2001 3:35:00 PM ET


NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - COMEX copper tumbled to a 21-month low on Friday as floor speculators continued to fret that a weak economy and equites bear market would stifle demand for important industrial materials.

Benchmark May copper <0#HG:> ended down 1.80 cents at 75.05 cents a lb, touching a low of 74.80, its weakest since June 24, 1999.

"Locals kept pushing it and London kept coming off, but there was really no volume," said a floor broker.

Spot April declined 1.80 to 74.60 a lb and other months fell 0.55 to 1.75 cent.

New York futures took their initial cue from weakness in London Metal Exchange prices. LME three months copper ended the evening kerb down $36 at $1,661 a tonne.

The copper decline accelerated after the U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in March, its highest since mid 1999. A total 86,000 nonfarm jobs were lost, the largest drop since November 1991.

One New York trader said the market was seeking fair value for copper, given the current economic cycle. "Sometimes I think this market really needs to admit the fact that we are in recession and be done with it," he said.

The movements coincided with renewed stock selling on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average was down 197 points in the afternoon and the Nasdaq was off 73 points, halving Thursday's respective 402 and 146 point spikes.

But dealers said copper had its own momentum, having fallen steadily from around 85 cents since March, and only seemed to correlate strongly with stocks when they were falling.

Dealers said a key support to watch in New York was 74.10, a spot continuation low from April 2000.

The worrisome build up in visible copper inventories continued. LME copper warehouse stocks rose again, climbing 3,225 metric tonnes overnight, while COMEX copper inventories were up 68 short tons at 110,385 tons late Thursday.

In other supply news, Indonesian miner PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara said Friday it will increase its 2001 copper output by 20 percent to 300,000 tons at its Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.

Estimated copper volume in New York was a moderate 11,000 contracts, up versus Thursday's official 4,609.
Journeyman
(04/10/2001; 09:36:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51672)
Copper contradictions @Solomon Weaver, ALL who care to indulge

Hi Solomon!

Glad to read ya again!

Your post on copper (I know you posted it because of your
interest in silver) is an interesting counter-point to the
following:

-BILL GRIFFETH: ~"But what about the supply and demand for gold?
Isn't the demand for gold greater than the supply? MOFFETT: ~"The
central banks are the OPEC of gold. They will control the price
of gold by selling untill they change their minds." . . . "There
are only three weeks of copper left. When the price of copper
goes to $4 or $5, people will be saying, 'Why didn't anybody tell
me this?'" -James Moffett, Freeport-McMoRan Chmn. & CEO, CNBC,
Jan 18, 2001, ~12:43PM EST

Rhetorical questions for anyone who cares to indulge:

Seems there is some dissonance between James Moffett and the
price and supply of "visible copper" as reflected in your post
#51671! Was Moffett, a mining CEO, incorrect about the supplies
of copper, has the economy actually slowed that much, or is
something else going on?

Doesn't seem like dis-information; could it be missing context?
Or is the derivatives effect (derivatives acting like supply) in
play?

Regards,
Journeyman
Gandalf the White
(04/10/2001; 10:14:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51673)
SEE IT NOW --- at any Brokers Office !
WOWSERS -- Look at that GIGANTIC BEAR TRAP being performed today !!!! UNBELIEVABLE
<;-)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/10/2001; 10:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51674)
The New "Fifth Horseman" as seen by our keen-eyed Forum participants
http://www.usagold.com/hall/NewHorseman.htmlThe review continues to determine the gold winner. In the meanwhile you, too, can review these "field reports" and continue discussing the likely spark that shall ignite future gold demand.
Mr Gresham
(04/10/2001; 13:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51675)
Still Quiet Hereabouts
(Maybe if we're vewwy-vewwy quiet, the POG-suppression team will go away...)

(Even better -- anybody wanna CAPITULATE? -- probably give us a good month-long rally if you would. Didn't we get a little bounce a while back out of one of our guys, after we were trying to talk him out of it?)

They probably have a web-bot that scans the Web among sites like this one, and reports back right into P-e-t-e-r F-i-s-h-e-r's computer the pessimism levels. Perhaps they scan _everything_ printed, and we could arrange to have "And he was a devoted, lifelong GOLDBUG to the end" printed in all obituaries where it is remotely applicable. Talk about "taking one for the team"!

(I need to invent some little graphic symbols to put alongside my weird flings at humor; the usual ones don't seem to go with it as I'd like...)
Mr Gresham
(04/10/2001; 13:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51676)
POG: Recession = Deflation? Working Model?
Absent manipulation at the top, and backroom assurances to players that it will continue, market players with any old learnings about gold and inflationary times are probably playing this as a deflationary bust in POG ahead. Otherwise, they'd be scooping up ounces and clearing the store shelves.

However, this time, as FOA and others bring to us in many examples, the maneuvering room within brittle structures is being squeezed out. There are defaults built into overleveraged positions, that only require a certain combination of further oscillations (even in once-thought-positive directions, now weirdly-hedged in) and time to come forward.

Hard to measure, quantify, verify -- even economists with their statistical biases do not train for one-off crisis predictions -- so we end up after much reading with mostly an intuitive "gestalt" view of where the breaking points may be.

So, on my "inflation/stable deflation/default" spectrum (which translates into POG "UP/down/UP"), we seem to be notching closer to some 2- or 3-sigma default events, which will be here when they get here -- almost surprising us even after all our watching.

The "stable deflation" middle will quickly become almost impossible to sustain (Fed's job), and a Stagflation scenario mixes up the worst of all three components. More input welcome...
rc
(04/10/2001; 14:04:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51677)
US spy plane
Al FuchinoChinese say the US plane was their territorial waters. US say the plane was in international waters.

Somebody is lying. But to believe the Chinese are the liars is to be naive.

Keep in mind that most of what you read in the newspapers is essentially propaganda. It has nothing to do with reality.
R Powell
(04/10/2001; 14:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51678)
Journeyman (51672)
I heard Moffett's prediction that there was only enough copper for three weeks. Being that he is a CEO of a large copper producer, I was intrigued by his prediction and waited for the POCopper to rise. That statement was made on Jan. 18 and the rise in copper prices never came. Now three weeks plus four weeks more have come and gone.
What can we figure out from this?
Either Moffett was lying, misinformed or based his forecast on unreliable fundamental information. I tend to think that copper supplies, like many other commodities, are extremely hard (impossible) to estimate accurately. This is even truer of gold. I've been told by cotton merchants that sales or export numbers are sometimes intentionally withheld for a time if the withholding is in the merchants interest. Gold and silver, IMHO, are absolutely the hardest to figure as reliable supply and demand numbers are simply not available. It is this non-transparent feature of gold that adds uncertainty and volatility to prices. After the POG doubles in a very short time (similar to natural gas) even the experts will raise their eyebrows and say, "Wow, that was quick! Did anyone see that one coming?"
I don't think Moffett was intentionally misleading the market with his statement. Perhaps the amounts of materials available for delivery aren't clearly known by anyone??
Thoughts/info on gold supply shortage if indeed higher lease rates are the result of short supply?
Rich
SHIFTY
(04/10/2001; 15:06:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51679)
The Stranger
Hello Sir Stranger : A short wile back you had a post about the interest rate drop from the fed and who benefited from it. Do you know the date of the post ? Or maybe you could re-post it?
Thanks
$hifty
Humble Pie
(04/10/2001; 15:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51680)
#51677
Al thats not lying ,its just a difference of opinion. It all depends on which side of the fence your'e on.It's all designed to consune time.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/10/2001; 15:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51681)
Gandalf the White # 51673
Sir Gandalf

My sentiments exactly. Black Blade tells us six months ahead what is coming in Kalifornia. The public is oblivious until Friday. PG & E defaults. Now that the public has the truth in full view, up goes the market.

Another big dump is just around the corner. Much bad news being held up for just the right moment.

Respectfully,

HBM

TheStranger
(04/10/2001; 17:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51682)
SHIFTY'S Answer
Hi, SHIFTY...

I posted an article by Art Laffer on March 22.(see post#50590). I believe the Laffer piece is an excellent and accurate primer for anybody wishing to understand the machinations of the Fed. Nonetheless, you ought to know that Barron's published a piece on this same subject on March 26. In it, Gene Epstein argued that the understanding represented by Laffer's piece is flawed. (In case you would like to read Epstein, I am pasting it below). THEN, believe it or not, Epstein followed with still another peice on the subject in the April 2 Barron's. I will post that piece too if anyone is interested.


March 26, 2001

Forget That Stuff You Learned About the Fed
By GENE EPSTEIN

Remember being taught in sixth grade civics class that the legislative branch of government makes the law, the judiciary interprets the law, while the executive is strictly responsible for law enforcement? As though our currently reigning executive isn't trying to push through a massive tax cut, or as if the judiciary isn't in the habit of issuing legal edicts of its own.

But that particular catechism at least has the virtue of simplicity. For a truly torturous experience in the disconnect between school learning and the real world, try coping with a college-level econ course in money and banking.

There you get inculcated in the whopper that the Federal Reserve directly manages the money supply. And to add insult to intellectual injury, you have to do the math on how the central bank is supposed to achieve this end via the push-and-pull of the money "multiplier." You confront the never-never-land algebra of money "velocity," and are forced to use this bogus concept to estimate just how a change in the supply of money affects the price level. All the while, you are subject to the sorry spectacle of economists aping the physical sciences, and get cheated out of real insight in the process.

But okay, if you forget the rest and simply walk away with Milton Friedman's dictum about inflation being always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon (a point that's embedded in all those formulas), then you'll walk away with a truly valuable insight.

Somewhere the Austrian economist F.A. Hayek wrote that while the mechanistic MV-PT equation (where m-money, v-velocity, p-prices, t-transactions) was essentially wrong, he was still grateful that men believed in it, since it helped alert them to government's power to cause inflation by printing money. The fact that our citizens seem to grasp the inherent relationship between money growth and inflation as never before is a milestone in the intellectual progress of our civilization. Not so long ago, Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith could get away with writing in his 1967 bestseller, The New Industrial State, "The seemingly obvious remedy for the wage-price spiral is to regulate wages and prices."

But the central bank long ago abandoned the idea of directly influencing growth in the money supply. Its week-to-week role actually consists of accommodating whatever amount of money and credit the economy may require. What it does target is the interest rate on federal funds, which are immediately available reserve balances held by member banks. Last week, in fact, it lowered the target rate on fed funds to 5% from 5u%. But whether this results in accelerated growth in those various measures of money remains to be seen.

True, when interest rates fall, economic activity tends to quicken, and when the economy accelerates, its demand for money and credit tends to grow. Contrariwise, a hike in interest rates slows growth, and when the economy slows, its need for money and credit also tends to slow. So in that sense, Fed policy does influence the growth of the money supply, but only in that sense. What this means is that on any given day, the central bank sets the "price" of that commodity called money, but at that price, it satisfies all comers. Not long ago, when the central bank was in the process of hiking rates, an article in the business pages of the New York Times commented conspiratorally that while the Fed chairman was ostensibly pursuing a tight money policy on the one hand, he was actively flooding the market with liquidity at the very same time, as measured by the accelerated growth of the standard M's. But Mr. Greenspan is innocent of all such sleight of hand, because at any given interest rate, money growth is always demand-driven.

Nor is it driven by the multiplier model, which Louis Crandall, chief economist of Wrightson Associates, once aptly called a form of academic malpractice on the part of those foolish enough to teach it. In case you forget (and let's hope you did), the Fed is first supposed to "inject" a thousand bucks of "new reserves" into some lucky bank by buying a Treasury bill, and the way the math works, if the reserve requirements on that thousand run 10%, a chain reaction is set off that results in total money creation of ten times that, or $10,000. As Samuelson and Nordhaus sum up the situation in language bound to inspire (Economics, 16th edition), "If total new deposits were less than $10,000, the 10% reserve ratio would not yet have been reached, and full equilibrium would not have been attained."

Equilibrium, my foot; that Rube Goldberg puts the monetary cart before the banking horse. The way things actually work, the banks that are part of the system must at any point in time satisfy reserve requirements for checking deposits that were on their books about 30 days ago! In other words, the 10,000 bucks got created last month by the bank's need to satisfy their customers, along with many thousands of dollars more. And there would be hell to pay if the Fed didn't make it quite clear to all involved that the reserves will be there to cover those commitments.

Similarly, this month's commitments must be covered next month, and so on. The Fed's job lies elsewhere: To the extent that the banks need to borrow federal funds from each other to satisfy reserve requirements, it wants them to pay the current rate of 5%, a target it hits through "open market" operations, or the buying and selling of Treasuries.

Only after we throw away our textbooks and try to grasp instead the real fundamentals of this process, does it become possible to see money's role in fueling inflation on the one hand, and the real economic forces that can fan inflation on the other. Take wage hikes as an example. A rise in wage rates boosts the demand for money, as businesses borrow from their banks in order to meet those higher payrolls.

But once those accounts are created, the commitments must be covered by the Fed. So in the current monetary regime, a rise in demand can call forth more supply, spurring inflation in the process.

next week, why the mechanistic concept of money's "velocity" of circulation serves only to prevent us from understanding the insidious way accelerating inflation can be caused by a money expansion. But meanwhile, two questions for homework:

1. Harvard economist N. Gregory Mankiw writes (Principles of Economics, first. edition): "In physics, the term velocity refers to the speed at which an object travels. In economics, the velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet." But then he writes: "To calculate the velocity of money, we divide the nominal value of output (nominal GDP) by the quantity of money." What's wrong with that statement?

(Hint: GDP covers only final product-e.g., the sale of a loaf of bread. What happened to all the intermediate transactions: the sale of wheat to the miller, the sale of flour to the baker, and so on? Don't they also involve dollar bills "traveling from wallet to wallet"?)

2. In his July 1999 testimony before the House Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Greenspan made the following remarks: "The central bank cannot effectively target stock or other asset prices. Should an asset bubble arise, or even if one is already in train, monetary policy properly calibrated can doubtless mitigate at least part of the impact on the economy. And obviously, if we could find a way to prevent or deflate emerging bubbles, we would be better off."

Why is that last statement a tad hypocritical, coming from a central banker?

(Hint: He helps cause bubbles.)


SHIFTY
(04/10/2001; 19:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51683)
The Stranger
Found it!

Thanks
$hifty
canamami
(04/10/2001; 20:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51684)
A partial explanation of Euro/$US valuations?
Don Coxe's April 6 call related the following theory: Those involved in the underground economy in Europe used to accumulate DMarks and some French francs. There will be a recording process when these currencies are changed into Euros. This process was designed to catch money and participants in the underground economy. Hence, such individuals are purchasing dollars with these DMarks and francs, to avoid the bureaucracy involved with converting to Euros. The underground economy in Europe is considerable: For example, apparently one-third of Italy's GNP is in the underground economy. Thus, this is one factor holding up the dollar.
Shermag
(04/10/2001; 21:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51685)
Journeyman, R Powell, Solomon Weaver - Copper
I have an intuitive sense that the copper situation of today is similar to oil in 98.

You will recall that the POO plunged to extreme lows in late 98, kissing the $10/bbl level. The aftermath of the Asian contagion of 97 had resulted in a temporary reduction in demand there, while the LTCM debacle in 98 had destabilized confidence in much of the rest of the world's economy. Predictions of $6 oil were all the rage. Meanwhile, the supply - demand situation had quietly reversed, resulting in a drawdown in inventories into the northern hemisphere's winter, and the price drop had done its job on the exploration budgets of the oil companies. Throw in a generous supply of fiat dollars to chase this oil, and kaboom - a price explosion ensued. The rest is now history.

I have little direct knowledge of the supply-inventory-consumption dynamic of copper, so I am only speculating here, but some of those same pressures must be in place. Sub $1 POC for almost 4 years, coupled with high electrical costs of late should be having a constraining effect on the supply. I'm not sure what to believe on the inventory story, but my past readings lead me to believe Moffet is a straight shooter. As to the consumption end of the story, I believe Black Blade has made a convincing argument for the need for elevated consumption here to enhance an electrical generation-delivery infrastructure. Certainly the psychology has it that demand will decline in the near future.

Misconceptions are what market opportunities are made of. Got copper?

Shermag
SHIFTY
(04/10/2001; 21:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51686)
The Missing Link
http://www.shibumi.org/eoti.htmWhat a find!

:-)
$hifty
Al Fulchino
(04/10/2001; 22:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51687)
Responses to posts directed my way
rc (04/10/01; 14:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51677)
Chinese say the US plane was their territorial waters. US say the plane was in international waters.
Somebody is lying. But to believe the Chinese are the liars is to be naive.
Keep in mind that most of what you read in the newspapers is essentially propaganda. It has nothing to do with reality

me: RC, remember that some here would just have us apologize. Ludicrous. Can the US be lying, yes of course.
But the track record of the US , although not perfect is odds on better than that of the Communist Chinese. And then
you say " to believe the Chinese are liars is to be na�ve?" Sir/Madam, you cannot be serious. I have spoken many times in my life before I should have, so I recognize that type of statement as not being well thought out. Care to take another crack at it? Certainly the Red Chinese are VERY capable of lying!

ET (4/10/2001; 7:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51668)
Hey Al - how you been doin? How's the art biz?
In my opinion Al, all these governments are searching for legitimacy at the moment. They are all attempting to justify their take. It would seem China is the "new" perceived enemy. I figure most of what we hear, if not all, is just propaganda.

Me: ET, I still cannot picture what you look like, but I wonder Anyway to your comments. The art biz is doing well enough that we are building our third store and they take all my spare time, but building a new venture is fun, and this operation includes my wife and daughter. Also the gas stations are doing well too. I agree that the gov'ts are both seeking legitimacy, but not all is propaganda, history tells us that sometimes there is action behind the statements. I am still surprised however that you brought up von Mises in this. To think in this way would mean we have to go back to the first human beings and start tallying sheets. Isn't the world full of " he started it"s?. Seems we are all natural at that as kids. When do we get past that? When is it just you and me, and how we treat each other?

Strad Master (04/10/01; 01:34:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51656)
AL: Thanks so much for the link. It looks fascinating! I can't wait to read it.
Me: It is excellent reading and should be required, tell me if you agree when you are through.
And I say bravo to your comments made to Peter A and Mr G regarding China.

Mr Gresham (04/10/01; 00:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51655)

Al -- Your passion and integrity are your strengths. I'm glad to see you posting here again, and I didn't read those posts today in depth -- no time -- but are you really staying with the spirit of the message you want to be about here? (I guess I count on you for that special "N.H. something" my Mom had that I don't get from anyone out here in the West very much -- danged if I know what it is, but I'm always impressed when I hear your best thoughts!)

Me; Thanks! I think! I am not sure why you think I am veering away. In fact, if you do end up reading the posts, keep in mind that they are responses to comments made by individuals here.


tg (04/09/01; 23:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51654)
al fulchino
Something i forgot to add, you talk about China having
1/suppression of religon. Better that then manipulation of religon to suit the status quo. If they cant manipulate it they get rid of it, just like they did in Waco

Me: You surprise me here. Two words come to mind when you speak of ridding religion. Falun Gong. Second What makes you think I agreed with the Waco decision by Reno?

2/slave labour camps. - Im not sure they exist in China, but if they do are they similar to minimum wage in the US. I

Me: You do not really expect me to think there are no slave labor camps in China do you? Secondly, check out Walter Williams some time, he has some pointed comments about the minimum wage. Also, if you think all people deserve a minimum wage, you have not spent much time training people who have spent more time watching Jerry Springer than doing their math homework. As an aside, I pay people higher.

3/ free speech. - dont even get started on that. You THINK you have free speech and freedom of the press. As a long time forum member i would think that you would know better by now. I guess that psycho-politics has worked well

Me: I have free speech. In fact it seems to have iritated you, that I have it. So your statement belies your feelings. Your post exhibits that you also have it.

tg (04/09/01; 23:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51651)
al fulchino
A quote from the link you gave -

"Psychopolitics is the art and science of asserting and maintaining dominion over the thoughts and loyalties of the individuals, officers, bureaus, and masses, and the effecting of the conquest of the enemy nations through "mental healing."
That is exactly what is happening in the US today.
Also, no one is saying China is without guilt or wrong doings, either today or in the past. The point of contention is that people like you have had your thoughts and loyalties so brain- washed that you never envisage that the US ever commits a wrong.

Me: I don't think you like me.
Journeyman (04/09/01; 23:06:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51650)
Where does the buck stop? @Al Fulchino, Le Sin, tg, Et, ALL
Me: This was a great post, Nice JOB! As far as messing all over the �hood�, didn't Washington tell us to avoid foreign entanglements? And to your other question, yes I am partly responsible for all that happens in Washington DC, in my time and age. The hands I possess, the voice I carry are my only tools that my mind and heart can utilize to evoke what my soul loves. Where will things end if I and others in the have are always being blamed for all that has gone wrong in history. Blame me if I wrong you. Do not blame me if some other man or woman has wronged your grandfather or someone who belongs to your race, creed etc. If this was how we all should behave then I could be chasing Irish and Brahmins in the courts and on the streets. None have them have wronged me personally. And those that have wronged me are MY problem and mine alone.

Al Fulchino
(04/10/2001; 23:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51688)
God Bless America
Here is just an aside. To me the USA GOLD Forum is not just about the metal because of what gold can and has stood as a symbol for. It will always mean that this forum must from time to time stray away from just metal talk. If gold means honest money then almost any honesty or truth issue can be brought up. If gold means wealth preservation then a lot of politics can be brought up. It can mean war, it can mean oil, it can me wealth etc

Because of recent posts and current events, I present this:

"We're Americans and we have a rendezvous with destiny.... No people
> who have ever lived on this earth have fought harder, paid a higher
> price for freedom, or done more to advance the dignity of man than
> Americans." --Ronald Reagan

I am an unapologetic lover of the America that Ronald Reagan loved. We have done some things very well, and those that bash us from with our own shores are free to do so, under the protection of what others have fought for. Now some of what they say is deserved. But like an inventor we have to take what works and improve upon it and take the failures for what they can teach. Those that would dismantle us to take away all our faults will by default raise up our equally or more so imperfect enemies/neighbors. These passions are usually filled with hate, but definitely filled with shortsightedness.
tg
(04/10/2001; 23:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51689)
Al fulchino - (the loved one)
Hello Al,

you - But the track record of the US , although not perfect is odds on better than that of the Communist Chinese

me - thats what you think only because you have been given selected truths not all. IF only the media was truly free, then you would be able to decide the truth.

you - I agree that the gov'ts are both seeking legitimacy, but not all is propaganda, history tells us that sometimes there is action behind the statements.

Me - very vague non answer, You can do better

You - What makes you think I agreed with the Waco decision by Reno?

me - i dont. What makes you think the average person in China agrees with suppression of religon. ( even though various religons are practiced in China) Im just trying to show you the inconsistancies

You - I have free speech. In fact it seems to have iritated you, that I have it.

Me - you have free speech when it suits the status quo. Try expressing free speech through the mass media when it goes against the status quo. Remember the communist witch hunts??

You - I don't think you like me.

Me - I do like you. You try to educate me and i respect that. However you have not really answered the question. Did it ever occur that your replies here are formulated by the propaganda you are repeatedly exposed to. ( a form of psycho politics)
Carl H
(04/10/2001; 23:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51690)
Gold being withdrawn from COMEX warehouses.
I noticed somthing about the COMEX warehouse stocks over the last few days:

COMEX Gold
Net
Gold Ttl Received Withdrawn change Adjustment Ttl Date
Ttl 1,302,372 0 0 0 0 1,302,372 4/3
Ttl 1,302,372 0 103 -103 0 1,302,269 4/4
Ttl 1,302,269 0 0 0 0 1,302,269 4/5
Ttl 1,302,269 0 64,181 -64,181 0 1,238,088 4/6
Ttl 1,238,088 0 93,309 -93,309 0 1,144,779 4/9
Ttl 1,144,779 0 125,850 -125,850 0 1,018,929 4/10


In case the formatting makes it hard to read, the short version is that about 280,000Oz out of 1,300,000Oz have been withdrawn in the past 3 trading days. This will be interesting to watch.
Simply Me
(04/11/2001; 00:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51691)
@tg Sorry to butt in, but....
The American right of free speech and access to information has nothing to do with mass media. I'm not restricted in where I get my information from, I have the whole world of internet and shortwave radio to choose from! Communist countries restrict access to information.

If the mass media/US gov't doesn't like what I have to say, they can do nothing about it. I can say whatever I want on my own website, in a self-published book or newspaper, or broadcast from my own ham radio set up. My only restrictions are libel laws (I can't defame anyone's character without proof of the allegations), kiddie-porn laws, and I can't purposely incite panic (as in screaming "Fire!" in a crowded theater). If I don't cause anyone harm, I can say whatever pops into my little head and advertise it all over the country. Ask the KKK or the American Communist Party about American freedom...they depend on it. Whereas in Communist countries, people disappear into jails without trial for expressing views contrary to the government line.

And the socialist countries are getting almost as bad as the Communists...with the recent court rulings supporting the E.U. censorship and firing of an employee who expressed a view contrary to the best interests of the European "Socialist" Economic Union.

I'm with you, Al. In America, a lot of B---S--- flies around, but the truth eventually gets out....no matter who tries to cover it up.

Come on, tg...there's no comparison! Take USAGold forum as a "for instance" and GATA. There has been much discussion about the illegality of the IRS here. Who wants to be the first man in China to stand up and say the gov't doesn't have a right to take a piece of their income. Who wants to be the first man in China to sue the gov't for illegal manipulation of the price of anything!

Red, White, Blue and GOLD
simply

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Peter Asher
(04/11/2001; 00:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51692)
@ tg
This has been on the board more then once and will probably appear again as needed.

The following is what is possible for a child in our country, followed by her encounter with her peers in their country. No media spin is intervening in this one!!

Peter Asher (12/20/98; 19:55:18MDT - Msg ID:1450)
Through the eyes of a child

Forgive me if part of this post seems like a boastful Christmas letter, but I want to get across the character and image of a writer who was not interviewing, reporting or speaking out for anyone's agenda. I hope this will put a little perspective into the convergence of the topics of our concern and the impending holiday.

My daughter, Megan, attended a private school which we struggled to pay for. To help us through that period she worked for the school part time and summers. Its format was based on completing study programs as fast as one could go, so she set herself to graduate at 16 years of age to keep our costs down by saving us two years of expenses.

That summer she traveled to Europe by going to work camps where young people help on worthwhile projects. She encountered cultures and viewpoints from many lands and decided to stay on. She worked three jobs simultaneously to save enough to go around the world. She became intrigued by stories of Outer Mongolia, where the Russians had pulled out, taking the meager infrastructure with them Tourists are not allowed in the country unless they are part of a guided tour, or have an invitation from a citizen. So, she told the
Embassy how much she admired what she had heard about the perseverance of their people and basically talked them into giving her a visitors permit. In order to do this, the embassy official gave her the name of a personal friend of his, so she would have an "invitation." While in Mongolia, she bought what seemed to be the only horse for sale in the whole country and traveled 500 km. alone through the Steppes. From there she went into China through the back way, through Inner Mongolia. In one area, she was the first American they had ever seen.


October 1993 Taishan Mt., Tai'n, China.

I asked one group of students I met half way up to explain what they knew about the mountain. They said it is not a very high mountain, but it is the only one in a large flat area and has been holy for a long, long time; that the emperors used to go there to pray. And some "old people" still believe in it. I asked if they believed. They stated quite simply that their government had taught them from a very young age that there was no God, and therefore they don't believe in God. They said the government allowed them to believe if they wanted, but you can't change your mind about something the government's always been telling you, can you? I said (twice), "Yes, but do you believe the government?" They laughed nervously and looked at each other, continuing the conversation as if I hadn't said anything, and then laughed nervously again. They
said that 97% of America's population is Christian, and if they were living somewhere where everyone around them believed in God, so would they. "Well, I think for myself," I said.**** This appeared completely incomprehensible to them.**** Well, this is China, not Russia, not Mongolia. No wonder Communism has lasted so long here.


Parsifal
(04/11/2001; 01:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51693)
Carl H msg# 51690, Gold being withdrawn from COMEX warehouses
Carl said: " . . . the short version is that about 280,000Oz out of 1,300,000Oz have been withdrawn in the past 3 trading days. This will be interesting to watch.

Me: Yes, very interesting indeed, because that would be about 21.5 percent, which would seem to be a large percentage to have removed in such a short time, wouldn't it? Let me ask, just to make this clear, you are referring to physical gold having left the possession of COMEX? Where did you get the information, the web? Do you have a link? Is it possible that COMEX physical gold stocks typically fluctuate by this amount? What about the registered/unregistered issue? Is it possible that this gold was simply being stored at COMEX and its removal will have no significant affect on the POG?

Parsifal
Topaz
(04/11/2001; 03:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51694)
Comex @Parsifal CarlH
Should be GOOD!
My understanding is "IF" the offtake is 100oz comex "bad delivery" Gambling Chips, this could point to a Physically squeezed market. Not surprising at this price.
Noticed local buy/sell price margin is getting out to 5% lately.....could also be good.
The Invisible Hand
(04/11/2001; 03:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51695)
End of the strong euro policy?
http://de.biz.yahoo.com/010411/71/1iple.htmlSorry, I couldn't find the English text, but in a 11:30 a.m., April 11, 2001 German language Reuters article saying in its title that analysts expect a rate cute at today's ECB meeting, the president of the euro-group, the Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, is quoted as saying that the Finance Ministers are more worried about growth than about the exchange-rate of the euro.

Mittwoch 11. April 2001, 11:03 Uhr
EZB-Rat tagt - Analysten und M�rkte erwarten Zinssenkung
Frankfurt, 11. Apr (Reuters) �.... Der belgische Finanzminister und Vorsitzende der Euro-Gruppe, Didier Reynders, sagte vor Beginn der Ratssitzung am Mittwoch, die Finanzminister seien �ber das Wachstum besorgter als �ber den Euro-Kurs.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 03:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51696)
What do Denmark's Frederik VIII and Christian X have in common?
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThey will both fit in the palm of your hand. (...if you are strong enough and capable of quick and independent-minded action, that is.)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 04:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51697)
What does the upcoming Graduate need with his or her diploma?
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlAs graduation time approaches, Marie will help you select the perfect gift of gold coin pendants, tie tacks, moneyclips, etc. to show your pride and thus launch your new graduate off to a good start in the "real world".

In giving gold, you can do your part to plant the early philosphical seed of "sound money" and "real wealth" within a fertile young mind.

(In hindsight, it sure seems to have worked on me.)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 04:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51698)
Speaking of "sound money"...
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/taylorparksintvw.htmlPlease review "Economic and Social Perils of our Fraudulent Monetary System", a J Taylor Interview with FAME's Dr. Larry Parks.

Dr. Parks says, "...with a fiat money monetary system, ordinary people are not saving wealth; they are saving merely potential claims on wealth. The real wealth that the claims represent is actually being consumed now. So, when later comes, it turns out that the claims are said to have lost purchasing power due to some unexplainable phenomenon called "inflation," and ordinary people are wiped out."

(click the link to read more)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 04:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51699)
What happens when "potential claims on wealth" come home to roost...
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/bigfloat.htmlRead "BIG FLOAT: The American Damocles" by L. Reichard White to find out.

----- ...while non-Americans have shipped us lots of goods, trade deficits also mean that in return, we've shipped them lots of dollars. "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today," has become "our" motto. But what happens Tuesday? [...] The computers that hold these megabyte dollars as accounting entries in their memories are located all over the world. So these days most expatriated dollars aren't stuffed in mattresses -- and they're not exactly "overseas" either: They're in cyberspace -- and they can be transferred around the globe en masse and at nearly the speed of light.---------

(click the link to read more)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 04:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51700)
Learn more about paper gold in "The Folly of Hedging" by John Hathaway
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/HedgingHathaway.htmlMr. Hathaway writes:

"Among the factors depressing the gold price in recent years, forward selling and other hedging activities have been prominent. ...The thought that hedging might play an important role in depressing the gold price received little consideration.

... the industry must do whatever it can to reverse gold's marginalization as an alternative to financial assets.� The potential valuation of gold as money far exceeds the possibilities available through expanding the jewelry market.� The marginalization of gold is favored by bullion dealers and multinational commercial banks that use it as a low cost method of funding via derivatives. These institutions make far more money trading paper gold derivatives than the mining industry can earn at today's depressed prices.

...Where would the gold price sit without hedging or the prospect of it?� It is safe to say that it would be substantially higher."

(click the link to read more)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 04:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51701)
"Extraordinary Popular Delusions ... and the Gold Price" by Alan Brown
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/crowdsandgold.html"Gold at these levels (even if the price does decline) is a great buy, providing of course one takes delivery of the purchase. While it is common knowledge that something funny is going on in the paper gold market, it still sets the price of physical metal; and should the shortage that shows up in the supply and demand numbers finally become a reality, then the leverage is in owning physical metal. Paper contracts will be shunned."

(click the link to read more)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 05:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51702)
Following Mr. Brown's commentary regarding physical shortage vs. time to shun paper...
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html(You need not hear me express that the tightness in metal exists.)

From the World Gold Council's recently released commentary on last week's gold market:

"A jump in one-month gold lease rates from 1.6% to 2.3%, indicating a tightening of liquidity, helped the market... ...tight market conditions continued on Wednesday and as the one-month gold lease rate ran up to 3.1%..."
BH
(04/11/2001; 05:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51703)
(No Subject)
ECB LEAVES FLOOR RATE FOR REFINANCING BIDS UNCHANGED AT 4.75%
BH
(04/11/2001; 05:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51704)
ECB
LEAVES ALL KEY INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
CoBra(too)
(04/11/2001; 06:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51705)
BH - ECB leaves rates unchanged at 4 3/4% ...
and the EURO dives. Seems the usual spin is going global now.
As far as I can see only Wetelke called for this outcome as banks have already moved to lower credit rates in anticipatory obedience throughout the continent. I would have lost any bet, though feel better for it as it signals there is still some independence left at the ECB - or is Wim's last stand bfore the promised half-term resignation?

Time will tell - cb2

PS: Randy - great links again. Doug Casey's piece is a short and sweet reminder of reality vs spin - thanks
tg
(04/11/2001; 06:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51706)
(No Subject)
http://www.itulip.com/#TodayWill the U.S. fare even as well?

Consider that Japan had several advantages over the U.S. when its bubble popped. Unlike Japan, the U.S. heads into its post-bubble recession not with $100,000 of average household saving and near zero household debt, a large trade surplus and outstanding public debt that was around 20% of GDP. The Japanese still have huge private sector savings but public debt exceeds 100% of GDP. Even with zero interest rates, economic stagnation remains.

By contrast, the U.S. heads into its post-bubble recession with 65% of households with less than $5,000 in liquid assets. The average has $8,000 in credit card debt. The U.S. has the largest current account deficit of any nation in history and an outstanding public debt that's nearly 60% of GDP, left over from the long-forgotten 1980s deficit spending party. More than 40% of that debt is owed to foreigners and 83% of that is privately held. What will keep individuals and corporations from selling if they fear losses due to unfavorable currency exchange rates? How much will the Fed have to raise interest rates to prevent the repatriation of a large portion of that debt and what will such rate hikes do to a U.S. economy in recession?

When we first started to talk about the tech mania, we were labeled Cassandras. In fact, our current prediction of a three to five year depression, like the once outrageous prediction of an average 87% decline for most Internet stocks we made in January 1999, may turn out to be optimistic.

We're generally optimistic folks. But we do not see how wishful thinking is going to help our readers overcome the fundamentals.

The lead iTulip.com Top Story today is on Paul Krugman who yesterday tells an audience in Israel, "I remain obsessed with the Japanese example - how a perfectly stable country can become unbalanced. I don't think that we're going to see the same thing happen in the United States, but I'm eager to see aggressive interest-rate cuts." Like most economists, he suffers the delusion that economics can solve any economic problem. The fact is, there is as yet no evidence that an economic solution exists to prevent the kind of serious economic damage now that has been caused in the past by deflating asset bubbles. There are theories, but no proof that they are either correct or can be implemented effectively by governments. Aggressive rate cuts and massive deficit spending did not work in the U.S. 1930s nor in Japan in the 1990s. Why does anyone accept as a matter of faith these methods will work now? True, fiscal and trade errors were made in the past in both the U.S. and in Japan, but as we've pointed out these were made not for lack of awareness among economists of the negative economic consequences but due to the highly charged political environment that erupts after bubble collapse when economic resources become dear.
Two points here. First, the government does not control the economy. The government influences the economy. At some times that influence is strong, as when it maintains artificially low interest rates thus provides sufficient liquidity to produce an asset bubble. At other times it is weak, as when it lowers interest rates after an asset bubble pops. Few government or industry employed economists are motivated to admit that in fact economy controls the government. It does so in the way the sea controls a great ship. The ship gets to choose its way through the sea most of the time, but less during a serious storm and not at all during the kind of storm that's been coming our way and which is now worrying Krugman. If the storm is bad enough, the ship sinks, as we fully expect the Japanese government to eventually sink. Second point. We understand why our readers are getting nervous. Now that the recession is here and our prediction of something worse than a recession seems not so outlandish, one begins to think of matters more serious than the losses of speculators. Layoffs aren't funny. Bankruptcies aren't funny. In fact, the kind of hardship that's created by the demise of a debt and equity bubble are about as funny as a heart attack.

Buena Fe
(04/11/2001; 07:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51707)
THE SPIN MACHINE
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtRVGRPBRXVybyBG04/11 08:59
Euro Falls vs Dollar, Yen After ECB Leaves Key Rate on Hold
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz
......"While the ECB has stood pat, the Federal Reserve reduced benchmark borrowing costs by 150 basis points this year, helping the dollar gain 6.5 percent against the euro since early January. The ECB is the only major central bank to refrain from lowering borrowing costs this year, even as signs of a slowdown accumulate".........
rc
(04/11/2001; 07:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51708)
The Chinese
Al FulchinoI did not say the Chinese are not liars. I said that, in this case, to decide that it is the Chinese who are lying is to be naive. For your information, Colin Powell just recognized that the US plane was inside the Chinese territorial water. While it seems that his admission is somewhat convoluted, in essence, this is what he said. Do you need more?

"@tg" has answered to all your arguments much better than I could.

You have not the slightest idea of what is going on in China. What you know has been fed to you by the establishment newspapers which are totally unreliable.

You have the "faith" Sir, I don't anymore. Lost a long time ago.
Carl H
(04/11/2001; 08:01:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51709)
COMEX Gold; Topaz, Parsifal
http://www.futuresource.com/search.asp?source=headlines&filename=headlines¶m='cat=metals'&mes=MetalsThe link the metals news where I look at the COMEX warehouse stocks daily is given above.

My understanding is that the mentioned gold has physically left the COMEX warehouses.

It is possible that this will have no direct effect on the POG. However, I have been keeping half an eye on the COMEX activity for a while and I have not noticed this many withdrawls in such a short period of time before.

It will be interesting to watch and see if someone deposits a large amount of gold to stop the NET outflow.
tedw
(04/11/2001; 08:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 51710)
day 11
http://www.usagold.com
Day 11

Dont spend your USA Gold to buy Chinese Goods.

The leaders of China are BAD people. Dont finance the destruction of your own country.

Boycott China
The Invisible Hand
(04/11/2001; 08:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51711)
Boycott the USA
The leaders of the USA are BAD people. Dont finance the destruction of your own country.

Boycott the USA.


Orville Goldenbacher
(04/11/2001; 08:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51712)
Al Fuchino
For me, I've been too disillusioned by the antics of "our" American gov't to have any faith left in them. "Sorry" Al,
"Patriotism" of a corrupt government is tool for fools who have been brainwashed by their psychopolitical leaders (kinda like the Germans citizens of WWII).

I am glad the American hostages are going to be released, but again, most of this could have been averted with a little diplomacy.

Think, before you Pledge Your Allegance to anyone. I love America, I distrust their Psychopoliticians.
Max Rabbitz
(04/11/2001; 09:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 51713)
OT China & COMEX Gold
Sorry to go OT but.......There was no admission that the U.S. reconnaissance aircraft was in Chinese airspace when the accident happened. From the text of the U.S. letter to China (ABC news):

"Although the full picture of what transpired is still unclear, according to our information, our severely crippled aircraft made an emergency landing after following international emergency procedures. We are very sorry the entering of China's airspace and the landing did not have verbal clearance, but very pleased the crew landed safely. We appreciate China's efforts to see to the well-being of our crew."

I only rely on "faith" in matters of religion. In this case the full picture is slowly becoming clear despite efforts by some to demand conclusions without allowing full details to emerge. This is clearly unfair. There is a faction in China that wishes external confrontation to divert attention away from internal problems and to allow suppression of dissent. My understanding of China comes from an ex-Chinese girlfriend from the mainland. She and others I've met are very nationalistic. The round eyes better watch out. Japanese too. She claimed all of Asia was Chinese. "These people are all Chinese", but some Chinese are better than others (mainland light skinned). "Someday the whole world will speak Chinese." America is seen as soft and declining. People are hired and promoted for other than ability.....so much waste.....and more socialism than in China!!! She was not a member of the Communist party (too boring) but is not oppossed to them (not much choice if she wants to go back to see family) and said she left because of fear of civil war breaking out....this was shortly after Tianamen.

Remember that China now claims a 200 mile extension from their coast. The U.S. says 10 miles is the international standard. There are probably disputed islands that obsure the issue Chinese rights to the South China Sea. The U.S. claims the plane was 80 miles out. The Chinese try to enforce their claim by making it dangerous to fly within 200 miles. They try to disrupt (or "steal") the airflow to the larger plane by flying very close. Their objective was to make the reconnaissance plane crash, or come close to crashing. To give in to this intimidation is very dangerous as it signals weakness and thus encourages aggression. I think it would be a good idea to have video recorders on all future flights. But then again there are people who believe the moon landings were fake. We'll never have absolute knowledge of anything but still must make decisions. I tend to decide against those who try to restrict my access to information.

With regard to the gold moving out of COMEX warehouses, isn't this just the delivery of past month(s) settlements? I thought a large number of contracts were not rolled over.
Gandalf the White
(04/11/2001; 10:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51714)
"What a Difference a Day Makes!"
"Spot" the Dog is awaking ! "Spike" is still asleep !!
The DOW is now probing through the 10K level, and the "Dipsters" shall not see that level again in this DECADE !!! Truly "INTERESTING Times" that we now see coming over the hill as we all await the identification of the 5th Horseman.
<;-)
ge
(04/11/2001; 10:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51715)
The End of the Post-Cold War Era
http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/archive/041001.asp#The"Tensions between the United States and both China and Russia have marked the past few weeks. This period will be remembered as the end of the post-Cold War period and the beginning of a new international relations era.
...
"At stake is the international system's composition. Two great powers want to see a more multipolar world. The one superpower understandably wants to maintain the status quo of a uni-polar system.
....
"A different economic reality emerged as the 1990s closed. It was inevitable that projection of U.S. power would, in due course, lead to resistance at precisely the moment when the economic benefits of good relations with the United States became less than the geopolitical threat posed by the United States.
...
"Russia wants the United States to stay out of the Caucuses and Central Asia and to maintain a much lower profile along the former Soviet Union's frontiers. China does not want the United States to arm Taiwan, nor does it want the U.S. Navy,
under its doctrine of littoral warfare, moving up to the coast of China with ships and planes.
...
"The United States is not going to concede on these points.
...
"We are not in a new Cold War. This is a world with few precedents, one in which a superpower faces multiple great powers trying to control it. The post-Cold War era is gone and cannot be resurrected. All that is lacking for this period of international relations is a good name.
Al Fulchino
(04/11/2001; 10:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51716)
To several people and yes 'God Bless America"Please?
TG, Thanks for your response. This is an interesting occurence that we should be so
opposed in our views. But we shall let others distinguish for themselves who is right/more
right etc. For you and I, we have a spirited discussion. Contiue to finsish, if you haven't
already, the book on Psychopolitics. And then we can hash it out some more. Remember
one key point that the confusers of the world want. They want no standards. Be it moral
ones, academic ones, social ones. Now you and I can debate all day long about what is
and isnt propaganda but at some point even we must recognize the rules of our universe as
they are outside examples that we can witness. . Can we defy natural rules? No, of course.
Shouldn't we also have spiritual or soulful rules that we are ruled by just as the physical is
ruled ? Well if we sit still long enough as it says in the Bible, we can know and distinguish.
Now I don't want to bring that up especially if you are not Christian or Jewish, and to be
honest many of them do not sit still either but I have noticed that whatever religion
you are, if we sit still long enough, we ALL are advised and counseled in the same
manner. I truly believe that there is an inner knowing that we all share in our quiet times,
one that shows us its rules and inspires us from within. I believe that inner knowing is
what allows us all, whether we are on the right, the left or anywhere else, to distinguish
what is and is not propaganda.
Anyway I value your discussion.

Simply Me. I see a friend, thank you.

rc (4/11/2001;
rc7:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 51708)
The Chinese
Al Fulchino
I did not say the Chinese are not liars. I said that, in this case, to decide that it is the
Chinese who are lying is to be naive.

me:
As I said, they are the odds on favorite. We are not perfect, but don't tear all our walls
down because what is on the other side will pour in and it hates America.
you
For your information, Colin Powell just recognized that the US plane was inside the
Chinese territorial water. While it seems that his admission is somewhat convoluted, in
essence, this is what he said. Do you need more?
me
You do not believe much about the US, why do you believe his statement is anything
more than an intention to help things get resolved? Do not jump on that statement to rest
your argument on.
you
"@tg" has answered to all your arguments much better than I could.
You have not the slightest idea of what is going on in China. What you know has been fed
to you by the establishment newspapers which are totally unreliable.
me
How do you know what I know, Have you a friend or two as I have that have visited
China?
you
You have the "faith" Sir, I don't anymore. Lost a long time ago.
me
Lost faith is common to many of us at various times in our life. That is a whole subject
that is WELL worth going into. Perhaps you could tell me more about how you lost it?
Would you?
Orville Goldenbacher (4/11/2001; 8:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51712)
Al Fuchino
For me, I've been too disillusioned by the antics of "our" American gov't to have any faith
left in them. "Sorry" Al,
"Patriotism" of a corrupt government is tool for fools who have been brainwashed by their
psychopolitical leaders (kinda like the Germans citizens of WWII).

me
Orville Psychopolitcs goes both ways to be sure. And I will be the first to say that both
wings can be just as bad. Can it be that one side has wronged you so the other side seems
to offer hope or balance to you? More than likely there is an inner guidance that you can
find that will show you what you need to see. I hope so.

Also what would the world be if not filled with problems. Would we even begin to search
if we had no issues? Doubtful. Problems exist for a purpose. Can you build muscle without
a weight? It sure would be nice if things would lift themselves Can you overcome if
there is no challenge? Let both sided fight it out, this is the show you are meant to watch
so that you can choose 'side with or correct things as you see is appropriate. Your faith
and disillusionment comes from expecting what is not possible for others to give unless
they are truly enlightened. and responsibility to treat you right. Why did you trust anyone
to make you happy or give you the truth? You have lost faith perhps because you have
given other men the power. Create or replicate your own heaven on earth by using the
liars as evidence to your children. demonstrate how they can still succeed and overcome
barriers. When you overcome, you teach them to overcome. You faith will wash on your
shore , its just low tide right now. Perhaps if a man such as yourself who values honesty
etc so much will run for office enough men and women will elect you or at least become
friends of yours that you can count on
Sorry this can't be better written I am at work and need to get back. Thanks for the chat.






Belgian
(04/11/2001; 10:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51717)
ECB-rates
Only one out of 32 analysts (?) predicted the status quo on rates ! The dollar wanted some European flexibility, as to continue his euro/dollar, carry trade...to protect and cover its weakness. Europ wants currency-piece and quietness. The european economy needs a lower interest rate. But with 1/1/02, coming closer...the focus is on the Euro, wich is of course exactly the opposite as what has been said ! The only excuse for holding rates could have been the POO . But noone dares to mention anything about oil. Is oil for euros, soon, the reason behind that oil-silence ?

The dollar will soon be on its own. It will have to adjust its value to Gold and the Euro, and not the other way around. POG + at N.Y. open (evidence) ?


Watch interest rates in US. If they show an upward bias...
this means that dollar weakness starts to be admitted.
POG will watch (follow and not anticipate) any interest rate rise.
Galearis
(04/11/2001; 10:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51718)
The US-China thingy...
Perhaps it is time to make a modest contribution to this discussion - in the hopes that it will be put to rest (as somewhat off-topic and by now over-done.

The US has been doing these fly-bys since 1950 from Japanese bases and has been a normal intelligence gathering process for many years. The intent is to monitor Chinese transmissions for information that is obviously not available from satelite surveilance. The Chinese have understably never enjoyed these incursions very much (as the US does not in similar situations) and scrambles fighters to put in a glare at the intruder. Sometimes the glare turns more aggressive and it is not uncommon for the fighters to employ intimidation tacktics to upset the people in the offending aircraft. However, this does require an element of skill to do for fighter pilots who play a little chicken with the reconnaisance plan or try to rock it a little with close fly-bys. Rarely, as in this case, this can lead to a collision. NO pilot would ever intentionally ram another plane as this is tantamount to suicide for both planes and their respective crews.

A point well made is that the US has and is far more aggressive in protecting its 200 mile exclusion zone than is China with its narrower one. I really do not blame China for resenting these incursions as it surely does not have the physical or "legal" capacity or to do the same to the US.

This is not a serious "situation" for the US or China. Both countries understand this well, and the Chinese simply try to develop some propaganda advantage. However, we should also understand that the Chinese government wants the upcoming Olympic Games far more than any temporary propaganda achievements with the present situation. It is highly unlikely that they would jeaprodize this by being too hard-line with the US fliers. Neither countries have so far overstepped their reactions to this situation, as anyone with some objectivity will see.

Let's get back to gold, please.
The Invisible Hand
(04/11/2001; 10:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 51719)
Did I miss Trail Guide?
Al Fulchino (04/11/01; 10:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51716)
To several people and yes 'God Bless America"Please?
TG, Thanks for your response
Al Fulchino
(04/11/2001; 11:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51720)
Galearis
Hi and I enjoy your posts.
On your lets get back to gold request, I repeat my last message of last nite, and further say that when several or more of us poke our heads out and speak slightly or fully off topic it is not necessarily out of line. Even you a very learned gold man felt an appropriate need to correspond on this China thingy. We can all add up when things are counted. Yet your post made it in. Should we have discounted what you had to say before you said it? These things run their course in my opinion. And everyone has been pretty responsbible in my opinion.
Orville Goldenbacher
(04/11/2001; 11:07:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51721)
Al
"me
Orville Psychopolitcs goes both ways to be sure. And I will be the first to say that both
wings can be just as bad. Can it be that one side has wronged you so the other side seems
to offer hope or balance to you?"

The rabid religous right is just as unsavory as the rebellious radical red left, imho, to be fair I distrust them equally.

Phos
(04/11/2001; 11:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51722)
Comex delivery intentions
These are Comex delivery intentions to-date. Can anyone tell me how much gold this represents? Are these 100 oz contracts in which case this would be 885,900 ozs?
=========================================================
TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES
COPPER SILVER GOLD ALUMINUM
ISSUES 203 55 0 0
SO FAR APRIL 5,822 146 8,859 45
===========================================================
Thanks for any help.
FredBear
(04/11/2001; 11:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51723)
Bill Bonner Has A Way With Words
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=1077*** "Technology stocks climbed smartly," says a New
York Times report. May we suggest another adverb?
How about 'stupidly?' Or 'naively'...'foolishly'...
'recklessly'...A lot of words come to mind to
describe the rise in Techs yesterday, but 'smartly'
is not among them.

*** "Fundamentally, most of these stocks have
discounted the depth of the slowdown that we
expect," a fund manager told Reuters. "These stocks
are beginning to stabilize."

*** Stabilize? At 23 times earnings? A chart in
Grant's Interest Rate Observer provides a point of
reference. The chart tracks the price-earning ratio
of the S&P 500 from 1872 to the present. In the late
19th century, the ratio hit 25 - a high. Thence, it
fell back down to the average - 14.5 - and kept
falling until it at last hit bottom in the early 20th
century at about 5.

Then, we see the line bounce up and down, finally
hitting the 25 mark again - just before the '29
crash. Again, it fell - this time to a low of about
7 in the '40s. Then, in 1992, the S&P 500 P/E ratio
hit the 25 mark again, but this time it did
something it had never done before - after a brief
dip, it rose even higher - reaching 35 in the late
'90s. The chart shows the average P/E today at
22.6...and apparently on the way down. Will it go
all the way to 7 or even 5? I know you can do the
math as easily as I, but this suggests a possible
drop of 75% or so from current levels.

*** An essentialist investor, John Boland, is quoted
in a recent issue of Grant's. Boland, once a writer
for Barron's, settled in Baltimore and makes a
living finding decent companies in distress. He is
the general manager of Remnant Partners, LP, and
estimates that 30% of his current holdings sell for
less than the value of the current assets. Grant's
must have posed the question: 'is it time to be a
buyer?' Boland's answer:

"To get to a reasonable valuation level on the real
companies that got over-inflated - never mind the
ones that shouldn't exist - you could still go down
75%."

*** An article called Optimist's Dilemma on page 60
of the May 2001 issue of Worth magazine names the
following as "stocks to avoid"...

CISCO
GATEWAY
DELL
INTEL
DUPONT
KNIGHT RIDDER
ERICSSON
SUN MICRO

Probably good advice. But it would have been more
useful a year ago.

*** "Bulls are bold because the market is in the eye
of the storm," writes Bill King this morning. "There
are no impact economic releases for a while;
earnings reports will soon commence; and observant
operators note Greenspan has increased credit
creation. It's hard to stay short when M3 explodes a
mind-numbing $65.9 billion in one week; and many
believe the PCG bankruptcy is the denouement...
coupled with Al's even more aggressive credit
creation, it's a replay of the bailouts on the Asian
Contagion, Russia, Mexico, etc."

*** Trouble is, says King, Easy Al has been
following the market. "Greenspan never contracted
the money supply, or restrained credit like previous
Fed-induced economic downturns for
inventory/inflation. This downturn is due to over-
investment, which is due to over-promiscuous credit
creation. These downturns take much longer to
correct than 'inventory adjustments'."

*** The quarter just ended saw $31.8 billion in
corporate defaults - more than ever before. "Debt
Default to Peak in 2002," declares the headline in
the Financial Times, referring to a Moody's report.

*** My friend, John Mauldin, believes bonds may be
the "heads I win, tails you lose" investment of the
year. "If the economy goes into the tank," he
writes, "Greenspan will keep lowering rates and
bring long term rates down with them, thus
increasing the price of long-term bonds. If the
economy recovers, surpluses are likely to be larger
than forecast and therefore mean a reduction in the
supply of bonds, forcing down rates and increasing
the price of bonds."

*** But bonds fell sharply yesterday. Yields on 10-
year Treasury notes rose above 5%. Greenspan may be
cutting rates, but Mr. Market seems to be headed in
the opposite direction - increasing the cost of
borrowed funds.

*** Not only is Mr. Greenspan unable to find the
perfect fed funds rate...when he pushes in one
direction, the market goes in another. Advice to Mr.
Greenspan: announce that you have a rare disease and
are forced to retire. Later on, you can announce
that you are cured.

*** Gold is getting cheaper, too. It dropped a dollar yesterday. Is it cheap enough? I don't know. "Gold is classically a hedge against inflation - and a protection against severe political upheaval," observes the Fleet Street Letter's Brian Durrant from our team in London. "But, it is not particularly well suited as a 'safe haven' in a recession where low inflation or falling prices are the norm." (see: Shine On You Barbarous Relic at the link above)

FredBear
(04/11/2001; 11:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51724)
April Gold up $2.70
to $260 per ounce.

June Gold is up $2 to 260.20.

So COMEX is almost in backwardization. Backwardization happenned in late 1999 also, around the time of the WA.
FredBear
(04/11/2001; 12:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51725)
Forgot something
GATA had a note last night about an Australian miner who defaulted on some gold owed to Chase.

From a very informed Caf� member:

On Joseph Gutnick, chairman of Australia's Centaur Mining....he has caused a stir in Kalgoorlie, due to his default on 40 tonnes of gold to Chase Bank, owing local businesses in Kalgoorlie some AU$ 47 million. A problem, but according to the Prime Minister, " there is nothing wrong"..........and for the Aussie gold sales, it seems like yesterday,........GOLD, what is that ??!! ...........I do believe that is what they mine in Kalgoorlie.

Gutnick, he has also done a runner with Centaurs equity in Astro Mining, which he just happens to be the principal shareholder......however, in Kalgoorlie, nobody has noticed !!!!!!!??????
-END-
turkey hunter
(04/11/2001; 12:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51726)
Argentina might go 50- 50 on euros and dollars
Euro faces long wait for Argentine boost-analysts

By James Thornhill

LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - The euro stands to get a major lift if Argentina follows through with plans to adjust its pegged currency regime to include the single currency, but analysts said they don't expect the shift to come anytime soon.
Argentine economy minister Domingo Cavallo said on Wednesday that he would like to adjust the peg so that the peso was tied to a basket which gave as much weighting to the euro as the dollar, adding that a switch would only happen when the euro was back at dollar parity.
The peso is currently pegged on a one-to-one basis with the dollar and a shift to the regime suggested by Cavallo would mean that half of Argentina's foreign exchange reserves would need to be swapped into euros.
That would amount to over $15 billion on the basis of Argentina's current reserve levels and could give the euro a big boost, but analysts said such a move was unlikely anytime soon.
"The currency peg has to stay as it is for the foreseeable future as Argentina needs to sort out its fiscal deficit and get on the road to recovery before it starts meddling with the peg," said Mike Noone, senior Latin American economist at WestLB in London.
"Its seems Cavallo may be getting a little ahead of himself with these latest comments."
CAVALLO IN NO RUSH
Cavallo himself has previously said he was looking at a two to three-year time horizon for the adjustment in the peso peg.
Moreover, at a time when the euro is moving closer to its record lows than towards the dollar parity rate, his suggestion was not seen presaging any swift changes to the Argentine currency peg.
A Reuters poll conducted last month suggested the euro was unlikely to hit parity to the dollar over the next 12 months.
"It's interesting that Cavallo keeps raising the peg issue, but he's made clear he doesn't want to devalue the peso so the move won't happen until the euro is much stronger," said Javier Kulesz, emerging markets analyst at UBS Warburg.

Still, Cavallo's comments come amid a more general shift towards the use of the euro as a reserve currency.

Last week the Lithuanian parliament approved plans to switch the litas's peg to the euro, away from the current dollar link. Other European countries such as Hungary, Bulgaria and Estonia already operate euro pegs.

Analysts said it made sense for emerging European states to peg to the euro because most of their trade was with the euro zone but added that countries further afield like Argentina could also benefit from such a link.

In fact, Argentina exports more to European Union countries than to the United States. Exports to the EU amounted to $672 million in the period January-February 2001, compared with $503 million to the NAFTA bloc of the U.S, Canada and Mexico.

Meanwhile, the euro's fall of almost 30 percent since its start in January 1999 has seen the cost of Argentine goods rise steadily in Europe.

"A peg shift would help insulate Argentina against that kind of currency volatility," said Kulesz.

Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 12:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51727)
tg, thanks for the itulip.com article in your msg# 51706
It reiterates message I have endeavored to convey that "market forces" (i.e., the will of the people) ULTIMATELY dictate our social landscape, including the shape of the government itself. As recently as 3/29/01 msg#51005 I suggested to a poster that [QUOTE] my claim remains that the government we, the people, receive is the one we create/allow as an end-product of a unique political variation of a market-driven process. The people ultimately get what the people want...however, it may take time, and collective "wants" do change. Therefore, over human history we lurch forward politically from discontent to discontent.[END QUOTE] In the process, the government and the population endeavor to co-exist in an evolving state of dynamic harmony.

These were good words from your article!

---- "...the government does not control the economy. The government influences the economy. At some times that influence is strong, as when it maintains artificially low interest rates thus provides sufficient liquidity to produce an asset bubble. At other times it is weak, as when it lowers interest rates after an asset bubble pops. Few government or industry employed economists are motivated to admit that in fact economy controls the government. It does so in the way the sea controls a great ship. The ship gets to choose its way through the sea most of the time, but less during a serious storm and not at all during the kind of storm that's been coming our way..." ----

The underlying message here is that it is reasonable to soon see the U.S. monetary hegemony fall away (along with a reserve structure buily upon the 30-year fiction endorsed by the Treasury and the IMF that gold could be effectively held at artifical book values ($42.22 in the U.S., and SDR35 in the IMF)). It will be replaced by the system dictated by global market forces -- including reserve asset gold that is fairly marked to market values. While itself is "just another" fiat currency, the euro and its banking structure was built to accomodate this undeniable force that shall in due course see the value of physical gold move much higher as the now-reigning dollar system wanes.

The market has spoken.

got gold?
LimitUp
(04/11/2001; 13:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 51728)
Have no Fear
The FED as lender of last resort can with their ability to print money correct any possible problem. Can anyone tell me how our financial system can collapse when without limit the power of the FED can rescue everyone?
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 13:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51729)
New arrival at The Gilded Opinion
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/TaylorGoldApril01.htmlThis latest addition is courtesy of Jay Taylor, Editor of J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks.

"For a host of reasons we remain more than ever convinced that investors who own gold will find their portfolios greatly protected against the ravages that most likely lie in our immediate future. As such our portfolio contains a minimum of 22% committed to gold and silver."

---from a transcript of the April 7th, Weekly Telephone Hotline

(click link to see more)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/11/2001; 15:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51730)
Question for LimitUp
Your comments intrigue me. To be sure, within the dollar-based banking system, the Federal Reserve has the ability to play the role of "lender of last resort" as it can take steps to emit currency without limit in exchange for good and bad assets held by threatened banks (a process often called "monetizing the debt" because many of these "assets" are a form of debt...loans/bonds). (((In this, we can all see there is no "lender of last resort" for the bullion banking system because no entity exists with the power to similarly emit gold endlessly in exchange for paper "contract assets" so as to offer relief to a threatened bullion bank.)))

You state in your msg# 51727 that this power of emission gives the Fed an ability to "correct any possible problem".

How does this printing authority allow them to correct the anticipated problem regarding currency depreciation stemming from oversupply and waning user confidence?


You ask: "Can anyone tell me how our financial system can collapse when without limit the power of the FED can rescue everyone?"

Through "monetization", the Fed can indeed "rescue" participants in the dollar-based banking system by keeping it liquid and to allow for debt-service to work through rather than rolling default. However, it is not done without cost. Through such "lender of last resort" rescue operations involving monetization (or other "easy money" policy), the value of the dollar shall not be rescued, but shall suffer.

It is for this reason that every person desiring reliable monetary savings as part of their wealth portfolio should choose adequate holdings in gold.

Tangible wealth always trumps a paper pledge, particularly during times of systemic uncertainty and collapse.
Max Rabbitz
(04/11/2001; 15:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51731)
Two comments
1) Great Basin Gold (GBGLF) was up 44% today on heavy volume (5-6 times nomal). This is a gold exploration company with an interesting prospect in the Nevada Carlin Trend just south of Franco-Nevada's Ken Snyder mine. I bought a small position back before I knew about the war on gold. I've avoided U.S. mines since. During the past year GBGLF has steadily dropped from about a buck and a half to about 40 cents. I hung on just for fun I guess. It's not like the company was going broke mining gold. Anyway, it looks like somebody just got interested.

2) I believe the 200 miles "exclusion zone" in oceans is for resources (fish, oil) only. Territorial waters and airspace only go out 10 miles. I don't know if the Chinese ever agreed to this international standard. This reminds me........wasn't it just last year that those feisty Canadians drove off a bunch of Yankee trawlers from the Georges Bank? Glad they didn't try to sink them. Can you imagine being detained in Nova Scotia over the winter? Montreal yes, they have good taste in wine and the girls are very friendly...even to Americans.
R Powell
(04/11/2001; 15:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51732)
Limitup
If the problem can be solved by "their ability to print money" then I'll agree, the Fed is the cat's meow. But what is the consequence of printing money or creating too much money (debt)? Who are we going to call when the problem can't be solved with more money or, if the problem is that there is too much money?
Rich
turkey hunter
(04/11/2001; 15:46:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51733)
World Gold Production Prediction
World Gold Output May Plunge 35% in 8 Years, Standard Bank Says
Johannesburg, April 11 (Bloomberg)
Gold output worldwide may plunge 35 percent by 2008 as low metal prices deter the biggest producers from opening new mines, Johannesburg's Standard Equities said in a report.

A gold price half that of 1980 and now only a few dollars above a two-decade low is making it difficult for many producers to make money. While mines starting up in Africa will keep output around 1999 levels of 2,576 metric tons until 2002, a 900-ton decline is likely by 2008, the report said.

The drop may lift prices of the metal, which have fallen as central bank sales more than offset rising consumer demand. More gold is bought every year than is mined, with bank sales and recycling filling the gap.

``There are a lot of mines that are running at a loss and might close,'' the author of the report, Standard Equities' David Davis, said in an interview. ``What I am saying could be conservative.''

The widening gap between production and consumption will boost gold prices, he said, without being more specific. Gold recently traded at $257.40 an ounce.

Within eight years, gold production in South Africa, the biggest producer, will likely fall 29 percent from last year's 45- year low to about 300 tons, the report said. Similar declines are expected in the U.S., Canada and Australia, the other major producers.

The declines come at the end of a period of slowing investment in new mines, with annual production growth falling from 5.2 percent in 1997 to 1.3 percent in 1999, Davis said.

Losses

Now many mines are struggling to turn a profit and gold companies are trying to expand by buying competitors rather than starting new operations. Mines currently losing money in South Africa include AngloGold Ltd.'s Free State mines and Gold Fields Ltd.'s St. Helena, Oryx and Libanon mines, he said.

Bernard Swanepoel, the managing director of Harmony Gold Mining Co., yesterday said companies should shut mines producing at more than the current spot price instead of adding to global supplies. Harmony is Africa's third-largest producer.

Still, analysts have said they expect that weakening currencies of major producers such as South Africa and Australia will help keep mining companies profitable. Costs are paid in local currencies while gold is sold for dollars.

The South African rand has lost 5.3 percent of its value against the dollar so far this year and 37 percent over the last three years. The Australian dollar has lost 10 percent of its value against the U.S. currency this year.

Should gold prices rise, a rapid recovery in production is unlikely, Davis said. Building a new mine could take as long as five years and a rise in the gold price will need to be sustained for at least two years before companies are confident enough to invest, he said.

megatron
(04/11/2001; 16:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51734)
R Powell
It is increasingly obvious that NO ONE cares about money creation rates or currency inflation in general because if they did they would have dumped their $US holdings long ago.
They are trapped in an Galbraithian spiral and there is NO WAY OUT. I will repeat again my belief that NOTHING is going to happen to gold until someone falls asleep at the switch or there is a 'event' which cannot be controlled. I equate it to owning a non-expiring 'call' on the 'financial disaster' index, which will soon be trading everywhere.
Tree in the Forest
(04/11/2001; 16:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 51735)
Mr. Gresham
Mr. G you out there? I've been watching the SM. Interesting ramp job these last few days. Cleaning out the shorts. They even have Richard640 over on GE saying that bears should watch out, this could be a bottom. Maybe or maybe not. Dow Jones down today but ended positive. Possibly more ramping tomorrow. Could this be a setup? "Something" might happen over the weekend which presumably "they" know about. "It" could be used as an excuse to bring the market down big and we know what "it" is. Is it possible that we are staring into the gaping maw of the greatest shorting opportunity of recent memory? I am thinking of DJX puts if the ramp job continues tomorrow. Naz is already way off it's highs but plenty of room on the Dow. Exchanges closed Friday. What do you think?
Canuck
(04/11/2001; 16:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 51736)
Gasoline
Gasoline hit a new high today in Ottawa (Ontario, Canada) of 77.9 cents/litre. Last summer's high was 75 or 76 as I recall. That's $3.54CDN an imperial gallon, $2.27 US and I believe over 2 bucks a US gallon.

I am wondering how gas is doing in other areas of the continent?

Looks like forcing are converging, yes?

Canuck.

P.S. Thanks for the chat today M.K.
Al Fulchino
(04/11/2001; 16:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51737)
Canuck
We have had a total of 8 cts move in the last 5 business days. As I said in a post a short time ago. Tight supplies and certain limitations on production will will be moving us upward further. My best guess is that whatever you paid last year will be 50cts higher this year.
ET
(04/11/2001; 17:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51738)
Al

Hey Al - thanks for your comments. The article I referenced was from Lew Rockwell. It wasn't specifically directed at you, I just thought it was an interesting point of view. Rockwell happens to be the head cheese at the Mises Institute but that really wasn't the point. The point as I see it is the government of the US is having a difficult time these days justifying their largesse. They take an enormous percentage right off the top of the economy and resort to phony money to hide what they've become. These China-type incidents seem to be used primarily to justify the government's existence in the public eye.

Fortunately, however, they seem to be bankrupt. I don't believe they can keep the illusion going much longer with Joe Sixpack. Joe is down to only being able to afford 3 or 4 cans anymore. I'm convinced Al, that the USA that once was and is so fondly remembered by you and others is about to get a rebirth. We're in for a few tough years but I'm sure the days of bad money will be exiting with this government. Believe me, the government is the problem, not the people. Hang in there buddy!

Glad to hear your business is doing well. Anybody accused you yet of gasoline price-gouging?

Henri
(04/11/2001; 17:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51739)
Danish Gold coins
Quadruple clink!
R Powell
(04/11/2001; 17:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 51740)
Tree in the Forest 51735
I've been pondering the same, that the Dow has further to fall than the Duck and was thinking of DJX puts as you are. My problem is, of course, the cost. If timed properly- yahoo! If not, goodby expensive put premium.
I'm pretty well convinved that the Dow will weaken. While pondering when, it occured to me that it may happen shortly after I stop receiving credit card offers and envelopes full of checks for cards I now hold. I call this my impending credit (debt) bubble bursting indicator or the CBBI. Perhaps with a well placed spy in the right check printing company, we could determine when aggressive lenders' check orders stop. It should be right before the financials lead the Dow down, no? It may also be just when or just before POG shines big.
Seriously, if you can time it correctly it would be a nice score. Good luck!
Rich
gidsek
(04/11/2001; 17:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51741)
Tree in the Forest
Short weeks (holidays) seem to be up weeks for the markets for some reason.

Dig out a chart and check it out.

gidsek
Tree in the Forest
(04/11/2001; 18:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51742)
R Powell, Mr. Gresham, gidsek
No I was looking at a true hit and run; buy April expiration tomorrow cheap and love it or leave it next week. DJX at .05 is $5.00 a shot. Strike about 10% down. Play 20 for $100 or at .10 play 10. Looking for a "rout" next week. Better 'n "Lost Wages"!
VanRip
(04/11/2001; 18:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51743)
A Confirming Observation?

The below is from Bill Fleckenstein's column today. Seems to fit in with some of the observations made here.


Mr Gresham
(04/11/2001; 18:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51744)
Tree: DJX
Here, but with visitors and clients pounding on my ears and time. Bad time to involve in puts trading, but I'm re-learning lessons of Oct '98. I had winning puts, VIX went to 45+, and I had visions of '87 all over again -- greedy bear paws clung to 'em, Greenspan reliquefied LTCM, and I rode them down to zero. I'll talk about this time more now, in some other (gold-related?) context, but the essential point is that in buying "paper" and "derivatives" , you have to know about buying and selling volatility. You can trade that market, and it's almost the mirror image of gold where you are safely locked-in to a solid item with no core derivative nature to it. (Yes, its paper price is swayed by the economic currents around it.)

But it is necessary to fade your own doom-mongering and run your investing like a business: buy inventory wholesale and cheap, sell it off higher to others who are panicking/insuring their portfolios, and hold your own insurance in some other form/timeframe/strike price, paying LESS for your own volatility. Anyway, weird stuff and it really "puts" you through an emotional wringer to sort out what stories you are telling yourself, and what is really happening (PRICE/volume). Kind of like life.

Practice SELLING, figure out how to get past your own resistance to commissions. (So far, it's been for the good with gold: I let the "commission" -- dealer's margin -- keep me from thinking much about selling, but then I've never actually gone out to try to sell one 'o these things. Anybody have any ideas on how that might transpire one of these days when our "golden years" are upon us?
R Powell
(04/11/2001; 19:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51745)
Van Rip
Thanks for the report from Bill Fleckenstein. I believe he is one of the best, along with the likes of Howe, David Tice, Hamilton and John Hathaway. I also gain from the daily work of many here and at the G-E forum.
Concerning Bill Fleckenstein, I saw this today from snowgirl at the G-E castle, "Bill Fleckenstein will appear on CNBC with Ted David at approximately 6 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, April 12. He will also be a guest on Fox News Channel with Neil Cavuto at approximately 4 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, April 13."
Maybe he'll mention the movement of gold stocks out of the Comex. IMHO the gold market has become jittery with lease rates, mining stocks prices, rumors of shortages, etc. A word from someone like the great Fleck on the peoples financial TV channel might be just the spark we need!?
Rich
P.S. Thanks to Snowgirl for the heads up!
R Powell
(04/11/2001; 19:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51746)
Tree in the Forest, Mr Gresham
According to my "Commodity Reference Guide" (wonderful thing), the April SM index options expire next Friday (4/20/01), so a very short term play is possible.
May gold and silver options expire tomorrow. I believe POG usually is pushed somewhat toward that price that results in the least amount of payout on options on expiration day. That may be right around 260 for this month?? Belief that the market will overcome these manipulations keeps me involved and is one of the underlying reasons why POG has the potential not found elsewhere. As always, just one poor man's opinion.
Rich
TheStranger
(04/11/2001; 21:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51747)
VanRip
Thanks for your 51743.
justamereBear
(04/11/2001; 23:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51748)
US/China plane incident

According to the Nando Times.. 12;34 AM EST The crew of the US plane is now back on US territory, at Guam

j'Bear
Peter Asher
(04/11/2001; 23:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51749)
FYI
Just got this from J-Bear, my answer follows.

>>>Just got this e mail. The traders are sure to jump all over this. Could be an interesing day or few
weeks for the dollar index, and all that is implied.Still sticking with my forecast of a fall implosion,
but the hair is beginning to rise on my neck "something. Saw this
on MMS....
02:10 GMT US manufacturers to address USD concerns to Tsy Secy O'Neill. According to
Bridge, officials from the National Association of manufacturers will meet O'Neill later this month
in an attempt to persuade him that the USD is too strong and hurting US manufacturing which is
already suffering the recession. The report is seen adding weight on USD-JPY.<<<<


If these jerks that are running the asylum had a half a brain, they would not worry about exports.
Instead they would create a Bond set up similar to the W.W.II War bonds and fund the full spectrum of existing and avant-garde technologies for generating and distributing power.

One interesting conundrum I haven't seen mentioned yet is that all the technologies for electric vehicles will be a problem rather then a solution as there is no longer any "Grid" capacity to service the load.
justamereBear
(04/12/2001; 00:08:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51750)
US dollar index link
http://www.quotewatch.com/charts/futures/NYCE/DXY0-intraday.html
Peter AsherView Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller
(04/12/2001; 00:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51751)
The big dam springs another leak?
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=39829&threadid=39829
This topic has been discussed here and elsewhere over the past couple of years,however,I can't recall it getting much media attention.

It's all about perception now,many arrows seem to hitting their marks.The dollar's old reliable allies,who could be counted on for their compliance in "stressfull" times,appear to be developing and implementing independent strategies.

Thanks to everyone posting on the Comex situation.Something seems to bubbling in there.The last COT I saw was incredibly lopsided for the long commercials,the increased physical off-take certainly adds a new wrinkle to the intrigue.
Belgian
(04/12/2001; 01:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 51752)
Limit Up rescue.
Glad you bring this question to this forum, where it belongs. Isn't it "The Question", w're confronted with, each time we think "GOLD" ?
Most of the answers are of philosophical nature, rather than concrete scenarios, how and when, any rescue won't be necessary anymore to save the house of cards.
Indeed, the world seems to be able to move any limit...up !
As if there is no Titanical iceberg left. As if our navigators are divine. As if the golden (hummm) era is eternal.

My 2 cents scenario : the world has become too big and diverse, that a global panic is almost excluded. I don't see a global collapse of any kind. But rather, a slow and continious shift into *Change*. Controlled iceberg-collisions, with hermetic compounds that can be freed from icewater. Money-pumps waiting for renewed global economic expansion.

Part of the Debt will be allowed to default. A derivative shock will vaporize the cancerous part of unproductive and speculative money. Economic contraction will place renewed fundamentals for a different expansion. Radical action is to be replaced by concertation. For each dangerous extreme
there will be an answer and tool to moderate.
No devastating wars. Less destructive arrogance, through monopolistic dominance. There is much more scoop for global balance, without perfect harmony.

The reason for my rather optimistic vieuw is that too much people on this globe are aware that "comfortable" live does exist and is achievable. And the winters will become more mildly in the revolving seasons. The entire world seems to remain in control of the damage ?

Related to Gold : POG hasn't gone to such extremes that the whole goldproduction has been wiped out. They seem to be allowed to survive and adapt. Central banks aren't selling the last ounce left in their vaults. POO isn't rising as to halt the last automobile. Only a small minority is having doubts about printed paper. And there aren't a million SM speculants, begging on the streets. Have you seen soup lines, recently ? I'm afraid, they're banned for good.

Is this some bold New Realism ? Me do think so ?
Gold has definitely a place in this rather rosy future, as we are constantly "REVALUATING" everything in live.
Changes occur at the "right" moment. We have too much to loose, for being tempted into Radicalism. An exuberant
POG, will not materialise, because of tendency for a more piecefull balance. The Bush "apologee" effect ?

Japan is already living with an 11 years old contraction.
Japanese citizins haven't turned into beggars and await rather comfortly the end of their contraction.
Dollar-Hyperconcentration will give way to Euro-Balancing, for opening a new part of the world to participate in renewed expansion.

Gold-Aversion is purely perceptive ! This can change overnight. A minor, even minuscule, price-change suffice to do the job. That little seed on the right place on the right moment. No need for difficult to understand academic arguments...but a possibility for intuitive reflexes to develop is enough. The ones who over-speculated with the noble yellow, will have some fingers crushed. A painfull lesson. The Gold-Drama is in fact the best evidence that Gold is still very important ! Gold will present itself as the ultimate Debt-Tool. I suspect, they are working on it.
If I'm wrong, people will do it individually out of instinct. The herd needs only an indicator in wich direction to escape temporarely danger. A price-trend is the most universal indicator. The more fundamental theories will be developped during the escape.

A cataclism is only possible when we all make the same mistake at the same time. Is there any chance this can happen ? Is the euro/gold providing the escape ?
So in an attempt to answer your question, I have to come up with the same question. (smile for understanding, please)
Inside
(04/12/2001; 02:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51753)
Trail Guide
Where are you... ?

Would Another or FOA please post again.... soon... I eagerly await the next instalment.

I have read/re-read the complete history many times.. fascinating.. and I am convinced, but I fear I am not quite ready to fly solo at this stage.. there appear to developments unfolding on which I would welcome your wise interpretation... Comex inventories, ECB rate situation etc.

Respectfully....... Inside

Inside
(04/12/2001; 02:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51754)
Trail Guide
Where are you... ?

Would Another or FOA please post again.... soon... I eagerly await the next instalment.

I have read/re-read the complete history many times.. fascinating.. and I am convinced, but I fear I am not quite ready to fly solo at this stage.. there appear to developments unfolding on which I would welcome your wise interpretation... Comex inventories, ECB rate situation etc.

Respectfully....... Inside

Topaz
(04/12/2001; 03:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51755)
Inside
It's a bit like watching a Yacht race (around-the-buoy's)if you don't actually know what's going on.
Things only take on a meaningful appearance at Turning Marks, as each craft "rounds" in orderly fashion then it's off to the next one whilly-nilly.
On each "leg", confusion appears to reign supreme.
Like you, I know bugger-all about "Yachting" but with the guidance of those who gather here, we, at least know where the "Rounding Buoy's" are.

Trail Guide
(04/12/2001; 05:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 51756)
testing
sample
Gold Trail Update
(04/12/2001; 05:54:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51757)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
ANOTHER
(04/12/2001; 05:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51758)
test
sample
BH
(04/12/2001; 06:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 51759)
Trail Guide, FOA and ....ANOTHER
getting ready for posting again??

What a day!!
Trail Guide
(04/12/2001; 06:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51760)
online
Hello again Michael and to everyone here!

I have had some kind of a virus attack on my entire computer system. As I just told Michael (privately), I am reduced to using my home based unit to post. Whoever sent this visitor to me no doubt expected it would destroy everything (it was a very good one). It didn't. But, it will be sometime before all my data assets are available again.

I'll make some timely posts this weekend and have asked Another if he could/would fill in for me until back up to speed. We'll know in a few days or weeks? Because it's been so long from his last writings, I think he will do it as this period is a somewhat free time for him.

So, thanks to all for your thoughts, comments and good discussion. The journey continues (smile).

TrailGuide
Usul
(04/12/2001; 06:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 51761)
Viruses?
http://www.monitortoday.com/Anti-virus/prevvirus.htmlTrail Guide: sorry to hear about your problem; one particularly nasty one has been about recently and has been sighted near me (of course, not necessarily relevant to your attack- I hope you are getting some good advice from a reputable source)
http://support.shaw.home.com/network/magistr.htm

The other links here may be useful to people for alert information.
http://www.cert.mil/antivirus/index.htm

CERT� Coordination Center
http://www.cert.org/other_sources/viruses.html
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 07:10:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51762)
Yikes! Welcome back, Trail Guide
I checked in just at the right time, and wanted to share a great read at PrudentBear's "guest analysis" column by Peter Warburton, but my system is doing strange things too; happens lately after trying to download comparison charts from Yahoo. Grabbed my keyboard "copy and paste" keys, too. So I'll excerpt later after getting a look at our "new poster" here...
nummus aureus
(04/12/2001; 09:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51763)
FOA & Another
Welcome back, Dear Friends.
A most auspicious occurrence, and impeccable timing.

I note, with some concern, the accelerated acquisition of Gold in the Far East. Bearing in mind the current elements in place for oil to exceed U.S.$40+, and a political administration that favors renewed U.S. oil production; Has the Middle East resumed acquisition at the level prior to the Gulf War? My friends in Oman are excruciatingly noncomittal on the subject, particularly the Bank of England sales.

Your THOUGHTS would be most welcome.
The Invisible Hand
(04/12/2001; 09:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51764)
The meaning of Another's reappearance - Some wild guesses
Had Another or FOA not said that Another would reappear only when gold's rise was (very) imminent?
tedw
(04/12/2001; 09:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 51765)
Back Home
http://www.usagold.com
They may be back home but the mudering swine that are the Chinese leadership have revealed themselves for what they are.

Make boycotting Red Chines goods with your USA GOLD a way of life.
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 09:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51766)
ANOTHER or FOA
For the gold markets to shut down, this must mean Comex and LBMA.

Is the current drawdown in Comex gold a unique event, as one of our posters has been keeping us informed about?

LBMA's dealings are much less publicized, but how would a freeze-up in their dealings proceed? Which members would be the keys in this, and what would the others do at such an event? Why have no major players broken ranks before?
Spooky Tooth
(04/12/2001; 09:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 51767)
All is Humor
They will not ring a Bell, before clamity.
The Watchman listens for silent footsteps.
The Forest is dark, Happy..Crying..Happy.
SHIFTY
(04/12/2001; 10:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 51768)
Beesting
Beestung!!!Beesting: I thought of you yesterday when a bee ricocheted off my truck window frame at 60 MPH and stung the crap out of the back of my neck. It still hurts.
LOL

$hifty
ET
(04/12/2001; 10:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51769)
Lew Rockwell - Frederic Bastiat
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=652&FS=Bastiat+Was+Right
From the article;

"Frederic Bastiat was a French economist, a passionate and
articulate believer in free enterprise, who lived from 1801 to
1850. But his writings speak to us today, and help explain
why the recent conflict with China has ended through
diplomacy and peace rather than belligerence and war.

"The answer can be summed up in one word: commerce.
Glorious, peaceful, prosperity-making, peace-preserving
commerce. It was the overwhelming fact that the health of
our economies are linked that made the Chinese and US governments
realize that both sides have more to gain from good relations than hatred
and war.

"It was Bastiat who observed the trade-off between trade and war. When
goods don't cross borders, he said, armies will. Without trade, there is less
to lose from the mass destruction that war implies. Countries that trade
have a mutual stake in the preservation of open, friendly relations. This is
one reason that free commercial activities promote peace, and why
protectionism and trade sanctions generate war tensions.

"History shows that war is good for government. In wartime, government
gains massive power over society. It is granted a degree of latitude in its
use of emergency powers that would not otherwise be permitted. War allows
politicians and bureaucrats with a passion for power to use it to the hilt,
through taxation, inflation, and regimentation. War destroys things and then
permits governments to profit from rebuilding them. It drains the private
sector of capital and entrepreneurial energy, and enriches the parasitical
institutions of the State. No free society stays free after war begins."
Buena Fe
(04/12/2001; 10:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51770)
Hmm......build the case!
NAM chief says no meeting on US dollar scheduled with O'Neill
Washington, April 12 (BridgeNews) - Playing down a statement from his own
aide, National Association of Manufacturers President Jerry Jasinowski denied
Thursday that NAM officials would meet with U.S, Treasury Secretary Paul
O'Neill to discuss the dollar. However, he said the NAM was discussing a
meeting with O'Neill on general matters, and he agreed with his aide that a
strong dollar was hurting U.S. industry.
( Story .18192 )

Christian
(04/12/2001; 11:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51771)
Commodity money-Fiat money
Commodity money is no longer in use for every day transactions. Gold is now used like many other commodities to monetize debt for central banks are expanding the fiat money supply by issuing credit through the act of lending. Every 11 days the entire above ground gold supply changes hands for credit creation. This credit creation gold entitles the holder to create $2600 worth of credit per ounce of gold. The concept of the money multiplier which in its basic form is simply the recipicol of the required reserve ratio is what determines the price of the credit creation gold.-- Commodity money is used for trade deficit settlement between countries which are mostly settled at BIS for the present price of $520 based on Gold Commodity price x 2. The commodity gold price is determined by the paper gold price. GSE or the combination of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae make up the new Treasury supply. Japan, Europe, China and others own the bulk of the GSE. In other words they own most of our real estate we live in. The people that have the smarts to create $2600 worth of credit from every ounce of gold own most of the world and the rest of us who can not figure this out work for them. It is a form of serftitute just like in the olden times. Long live the credit creation people.
beesting
(04/12/2001; 11:39:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51772)
SHIFTY # 51768*****I Got Stung!
Patiently awaiting the new Golden Thoughts of ANOTHER,Trail Guide/FOA.....Warm Welcome Back!!!

Shifty, did you know honeybee venom has many therapeutic qualities?
Ref: Charles Mraz***Health and the Honeybee published 1994.
I welcome the stings of the bees as it is benificial to sufferers of arthritis.....Me,,,cause,,hereditary!!

Honey, along with Gold, was buried in the ancient Egyptian tombs of long ago and the honey is still edible today.

Honeybees are directly responsible, because of pollination, for Billions of dollars worth of agriculture being produced every year.

Yes, the sting hurts, but it was that little bee's way of getting a message across as it was being crushed to death.....Message,,,"We will never bother you unless you bother us first, or it is a life threatening situation to us, the Honeybees".

Currently selling Honey for dollars and exchanging dollars for Gold as the budget allows....beesting.

beesting
(04/12/2001; 11:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 51773)
ET # 51769 Thanks for making me remember Fredric Bastait.
http://users.netonecom.net/~gwood/TLP/ref/the-law1.htmIMHO the above is a must read for any ""FREE THINKER""!!
Thank You....beesting.
SHIFTY
(04/12/2001; 11:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51774)
Beesting
Beesting: I knew an old beekeeper when I was a kid. He was about 98 years wise and told me about beestings and royal jelly, bee pollen. Good Stuff. I never found the bee so I don't know if it was Honey, Bumble,or a Wasp!


$hifty
IronHead
(04/12/2001; 12:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51775)
Shifty and Beesting - Golden Cure; Gauranteed!!
Buzz Buzz Good Sirs - To anyone ever awakened by our little friends, this cure is beyond imagination. Living in a cedar home which is an attractant for paper wasps, I get stung numerous times each year. Also being a river guide, we see many customers stung each year. THE CURE: Toothpaste applied immediately to the area of concern, will completely wipe out the pain within a few minutes. Not the gel type, but good ole fashioned paste type. Beats mud, baking soda, or mom's kisses. This works great for those forays into good gold panning country, where the yellow jackets roam too. The dreaded bald faced hornet sting is the one type where IronHead's gaurantee won't applly.


Golden Honey to you's,
IronHead
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 12:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 51776)
100 Dumbest Moments in E-Business History
http://www.ecompany.com/edit/0,2088,11274,00.htmlLOL -- marking this site so I can get back to read it later...
LimitUp
(04/12/2001; 12:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 51777)
Stay Focused On The Big Picture
Thank you to those who tried to answer my question, especially Belgian who answered the question with the same question! A day doesn't go by that I'm not reminded how simple minded the sheeple are. It worries me most about my own kids who I've tried to talk some sense into. They're oblivious to what's going on around them. But then so was I when I was their age trying to raise a family and had no money left over to invest wisely.I have one son who refinanced his house at 110% of his equity just to carry his debt load. If push comes to shove we will rescue them but I'd rather they get smart on their own and put whatever they can into precious metals. Inflation is eating us alive. Most arn't aware of it as it eats us alittle at a time. Why does everything cost 50% more now than it did 20 years ago? The inflation adjusted return on equities over the last 40 years has been about 2% if you believe the cooked official CPI figures. In reality it's alot lower. Come on Sheeple do the right thing and get yourselves some SILVER & GOLD!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/12/2001; 13:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51778)
Take note of the last sentence of this first BridgeNews report, and the trend of the second report
HEADLINE: Russia may increase gold output to 160 tns in 01, says minister

Moscow, April 11 (BridgeNews) - Russia is likely to increase 2001 gold output to 160 tonnes from 147 tonnes in 2000, Natural Resources Minister Boris Yatskevich said Wednesday, citing a forecast prepared by experts in the ministry. High interest shown by Russian banks in buying gold from producers is seen as the major factor behind the expected rise in output. ---END---

And the shape of the international scene continues to change, moving in effect to take the old "foot of the IMF" off of the fair market value of gold. Now (in the next article) we see clear signs of Russia following China's footsteps of gold liberalization....the "mandate" of the eurosystem.

HEADLINE: Russia plans to further liberalize precious metals foreign trade

Moscow, April 11 (BridgeNews) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign a decree aimed at further liberalization of foreign trade on precious metals, the Finance Ministry's chief spokesman Pyotr Afanasyev said Wednesday. The decree will allow gold and silver producers to export the metals directly, while currently only banks are allowed to export them from Russia. ---END---
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 15:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 51779)
Peter Warburton, Belgian, LimitUp
http://216.46.231.211/guest.htmHere is the link I mentioned earlier; see what you think. No time to excerpt now.

Belgian, LimitUp I think it applies to what you were discussing. Belgian: Price trends exist, yes: except when the event has been compressed by political need, n'est-ce pas? Think 7th Panzer here.

And we are still so QUIET. Look who's back, and lookee who he brung with 'im? Speechless, anyone? (Me so, sure.) I'm suffering a backwardation of anticipation, R U 2?

The calm is so thick; could you cut it with a CHAINSAW???
Topaz
(04/12/2001; 15:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 51780)
Mr G - Another??
Howdy Mr G,
Just risen on a fine "good Friday" morn here, (happy Easter one-n-all) and noted "the other's" return.
If I remember correctly, FOA channels A's post's via his or another machine, so the "Another' post was probably just FOA testing the link.
....now if Another was to address you by saying; - Any friend of Friend of Another is a friend of a friend of mine - you'd know it was Another.
Gandalf the White
(04/12/2001; 15:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 51781)
More Thoughts from the other end of the World !
http://www.bangkokpost.com/politics/pol110401.html"Asean countries advance currency swap plans"
By David Swartzentruber
---
Bangkok Post Wednesday, April 11, 2001
With the value of every national currency in the 10-member Asean group of nations recently declining in tandem with the Japanese yen, the organization has moved a step further in its plans to develop a currency swapping arrangement dubbed Asean +3. The +3 nations are Japan, China and South Korea.
The currency swapping idea was first put forth by Japan following the 1997 financial crisis as an alternative to reliance exclusively on western institutions: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The first objections to the plan were lodged by the United States. The US believed the plan would be a circumvention of the need for Asian nations to institute economic reforms and transparency in their economic systems.
Succinctly put, Asian nations would get funds to bail themselves out of liquidity binds with no need to correct the internal problems that led to their economic difficulties, the US authorities thought.
Japan continued to advance the currency swapping program and an agreement, the Chiang Mai initiative, was reached in May 2000.
In the meeting of Asean finance ministers this past weekend in Kuala Lumpur, the Asean nations renewed their consensus to link International Monetary Fund conditions to bilateral currency swapping arrangements.
The bilateral swaps are to be "complementary and supplementary" to IMF economic reform packages, news services report.
This condition addresses not only US concerns but also the concerns of financial markets, which don't look kindly on developing nations that don't initiate economic reforms.
Objections to the IMF linkage had earlier come from Malaysia. Malaysia did not rely on the IMF or World Bank help to resurrect itself out of the 1997 crisis and has been openly hostile to the western world's economic viewpoint.
For the sake of unity, Malaysia appears to have abandoned its position regarding the IMF under pressure from the North Asian countries. However, it won one concession from its partners in that the Asean+3 swap arrangements are to consider the different economic scenarios among members as well as the unique circumstances and financing requirements of individual countries.
Another important aspect of the agreement is that up to 10 percent of the maximum amount of a swap could be dispersed without linkage to the IMF to alleviate short-term liquidity problems.
Although Asian currencies have swooned in the last few weeks, the Thai baht, for example, hitting a 37-month low, conditions in Asia have changed dramatically since 1997. In most countries, reforms have been undertaken and safeguards instituted to prevent a recurrence of a similar crisis.
In their meeting over the past weekend, the finance ministers did take a swipe at Japan when they issued a statement blaming the weakness of the Japanese yen for the region's financial market instability.
The next step for the Asean+3 will be the next Asean meeting to be held on the sidelines of the meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Hawaii in May.
Most observers generally regard implementation of the Asean+3 as an important step toward insuring continued financial stability within the region.
=======
Will the new A+3 financial thinking include that YELLOW stuff ? What do you think ?
<;-)
Rockgrabber
(04/12/2001; 16:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 51782)
Trail Guide (FOA, ANOTHER)
I must put a thank you, in from my thoughts. You have all caused my awareness to excell. I strive to not be fooled, as I hate to be a fool. Thanks for allowing me to have the insight into not being a fool as much as I otherwise would have. I wonder though. Looking at the markets right now I must have would have thought the paper market was not right. I know your smart investors are buying Gold, just not physical. They like the idea of leverage, and have been trapped by the thought of faster, easier, smarter, money they think. Not the case is it? If I did not know better (thank you) I would think the same. So there is even less smart investors then there appears to be. Physical gold is all I am left with for thoughts of comfort. My initial option investements (GOLD)have went from 30,000 to 0. You warned me. I cant say you did not. I will now take that advice fully.
Rockgrabber
(04/12/2001; 16:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51783)
Is this why they are going to let paper GOLD burn.
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature/986007482.html Why would Mr Joe invest in physical when he can use so much less money for the same position?? They are ignorant as to what is going on right. They are participating in the Option and Futures boom, are they not? Funny thinking many are going to sleep holding options or futures contracts thinking, "well at least I hold GOLD". SORRY WRONG, if you dont hold the GOLD, YOu have no GOLD. I have never heard of paper as being assayed as .999
Rockgrabber
(04/12/2001; 17:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 51784)
Energy Crisis ((cheers to Black Blade))
http://wwwsfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?2/chronicle/archive/2001/04/08/mn118410.DTL I wish to qoute Mr Gray Davis. So here I will. In January I read he said this, "To utilities and the financial communtity, let me say this: I reject the irresponsible notion that we can afford to allow our major utilities to go bankrupt, "he said". "Our fate is tied to their fate". (((great))))(((((Not Mine))))) "Bankruptcy would mean that Californians would be subject to electricity blackouts. Public Safety would be jepordized. Businesses would close. Jobs would be lost. Investment would flee the state. And our economy would suffer a devestating blow". ((these are not just warnings for California, this is for the US economy)) NOTICE later in this article that it is the BIG Oil and Energy interests who controll wholesale electricity. How funny... Everybody puts their money in TECH when that is the sector with no means of making money thanks to debt, and compitition, amongst other reasons. The good ol basic stuff was overlooked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! including more then all others, GOLD!! Good friday and weekend to all!!
lamprey_65
(04/12/2001; 17:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 51785)
Gold Weekly
I like the odds of a rally next week now that options on COMEX have expired and physical is leaving the warehouse at a record pace. Gold shares waited until very late in the day to forecast a possible near-term move higher in POG.

The stock market should resume its negative ways as traders return from holiday.

We shall see.
auspec
(04/12/2001; 17:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51786)
Gandalf the White
Asian CurrenciesThank you, Sir Wizard, for the article in regards to Asian currency swapping arrangements. That part of the globe is clearly unifying when you see China and Japan linking their currencies in ANY fashion. You asked...."Will the new A+3 financial thinking include that YELLOW stuff?" The answer is a resounding YES, for numerous reasons. China will soon have a free gold market. All of the countries involved still have historical and cultural predelictions towards gold. They learned who they cannot trust in the 1997 and 1998 monetary crisis', so they turn inward and to the one thing they can trust, GOLD. Gold HAS moved from west to east. Japan linking with China and moving away from IMF, in whatever increment, is highly significant.
In the global linking of regions and countries it makes sense to link countries of a particular region {consolidation} and later link the remaining entities. Thus, the Western Hemisphere, European, and Asian blocs take shape before our eyes. Questions back at you: Which of these will be the first to make an official tie to gold? I would say the Asians, in spite of the fact the euro is marked to market with gold. Which bloc will be last to fall in line? That one is easy, the US Dollar and its hegemony will be milked to the bitter end!
To answer your question..... the Asians will ignore the YELLOW at their peril!
Best to the fine alchemist!
R Powell
(04/12/2001; 17:56:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51787)
Hat trick day
POG, lease rates and XAU all up for the day. The lease rates still show backwardation and have remained higher than normal for long enough to convince me that whatever the cause is, it's more than a temporary glitch is the system.
Mining stocks turned higher (almost vertical on the charts) just before closing but any price movements in the last hour of trading just before a three day holiday weekend is suspect. Maybe 42 brokers with shares for sale went home leaving only 3 brokers behind, those three looking to fill buy orders. Sometimes when trading gets real light those remaining to trade are the most playful of the lot. Who knows?
Anyway, a good hat trick day to set the tone for Monday!
Rich
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 18:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51788)
Rockgrabber, Topaz
"They like the idea of leverage, and have been trapped by the thought of faster, easier, smarter, money they think."

I remember that feeling of "smartness", discovering options and the first one that doubled for me (Pfizer, $200 to $400) promising me easy riches at an early age (snarf, snarf!) Oh how instantly clever we are the day we discover the leverage of options! (Maybe 'cause it sorta rhymes? "Leverage"/"cleverage"? The trouble is all the other clever guys, and the pros that are playing them (over and over, as a new busload pulls up to the casino's front lobby, and the old ones slink away with emptied pockets).

Topaz: "....now if Another was to address you by saying; - Any friend of Friend of Another is a friend of a friend of mine - you'd know it was Another. "

That's the kind of recursive loop that used to crash my programming PC at work, and I had to Debug step by step to find out which semi-colon I had entered was telling it to format my hard drive. It starts out sounding like one of those "All men are Socrates" logic statements, but I think I've personally just had a stack overflow.

Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 19:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51789)
Peter Warburton article
http://216.46.231.211/guest.htmLet's see if I can get this off my screen (and get my tax program back to work, since it grabs memory and freezes things up when I'm online)

From Prudent Bear, some fairly original thoughts here (a differentiation between money and credit), on topics we've hashed over...

"The debasement of world currency: it is inflation, but not as we know it"

"But was inflation dead, or merely sleeping? Residual fears that it may only be a long sleep led the US authorities to establish the Boskin commission, whose charge was to deliver inflation a heavy blow to the head. ...

"They [government economists] argue that, if double-digit money supply growth can sit happily alongside a 2% or 3% inflation target and an appreciating currency, then surely the argument is settled. ...

"There are some things that only money can do. However, there are many other things that credit can do just as well. The avalanche of non-bank credit that has swept across the economic landscape over the past 20 years has altered it beyond recognition. ...

"And what of the periodic bouts of monetary excess, in late-1998, late-1999 and again over the past 3 months? These can be explained by the increasing fragility of the financial system. The more obvious are the system's weaknesses, the greater is the fear of collapse and the larger the demand for liquidity within the financial markets. ...

"In this way, we can arrive at a crude understanding of the paradox of disconnection: how volatile and often rapid monetary growth rates can be consistent with seemingly low and stable inflation outcomes. ...This is not because their instincts were at fault, but because they were looking in the wrong place.

"However, this does not explain the strength of the US dollar: surely the value of the dollar in relation to euros and yen has to collapse under the weight of excessive money supply growth and a huge external payments deficit? Well, I certainly thought so as recently as December 1999 when I wrote a bulletin for Flemings entitled �US dollar: selling the silver and leasing the gold�. Now, I'm not so sure. I am coming round to the view that the external value of all major currencies is eroding and that this general erosion is able to substitute for at least a portion of the decline that one might expect in a particular currency versus its peers. ...

"The fatal flaw in the �inflation target� mentality

"Unfortunately, there is a giant flaw in this logical structure. Restraining the growth of the money supply does not prohibit the excessive expansion of the credit system, unless banks have a credit monopoly and operate only as lenders rather than investors. ...

"Where is the flaw? It lies in the fantasy that the stock of borrowings (of all types) can somehow be divorced from the money stock. ...In the limit, the construction of excess capacity gives rise to debt default, as the idle portion of capacity does not earn an income and cannot service the debt that financed its construction.

"However, since all debt is borrowed money, in order to write off a debt, it is necessary to destroy part of the money supply. It may be that the debt was structured as a bond issue rather than a bank loan; it doesn't matter. The bondholders exchanged money balances for those bonds when they acquired them. If the bond is cancelled, this money is lost. Actual and impending losses give rise to a desire for additional liquidity in the financial system. Here, only money will do.

"Central banks are engaged in a desperate battle on two fronts

What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.

"It is important to recognize that the central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200bn, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world's large investment banks have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil and commodity prices.

"Central banks, and particularly the US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when corporate profitability is on the ropes. ...

"The US dollar is not as vulnerable as it may appear

"The key to understanding how this can happen is to consider how little information the flow of funds accounts provides about the true ownership of assets and liabilities. As far as the US external capital account is concerned, hedge funds based in the Caribbean are overseas investors. The activities of overseas branches of US commercial banks are also considered to be foreign transactions. Also, London, and Zurich are clearing-houses for all manner of nominee accounts and anonymous trusts. Around two-thirds of all US bonds recorded as UK-owned belong to UK entities representing non-residents. To fear that foreign investors will one day abstain from fresh investment in US financial assets, leaving the current account deficit uncovered and the US dollar prone, is to suppose that foreigners are the sole instigators of these external financial flows in the first place. It is quite likely that a substantial proportion of these external flow-demands for US corporate bonds and equities are, in fact, US-originated. US residents� subscriptions to leveraged hedge funds reappear as foreign investment in US securities. US commercial banks� overseas branches borrow in euros locally to invest the proceeds in US bonds, playing the yield curve.

"Thinking in these terms, a collapse of the US dollar versus the euro appears much less likely. It may still occur, but more plausibly in the context of cancelled credit lines and forced asset disposals. The obvious example is the slump in the US dollar against the yen in 1998 as the hedge funds lost their credit lines from Japanese banks and were compelled to unwind their carry trades.

"Beneath the surface, the values of the dollar, the yen and the euro have been eroded simultaneously by the over-extension of credit. The latent losses in the credit system, emanating from non-performing loans and defaulting bonds, represent a charge against the value of the currency, as surely as if the edges of the notes and coins had been trimmed away. There has been a reduction in the quality of credit rather than an increase in the quantity of money (net of write-offs). The search is on for a valid yardstick, a measure of monetary value that has not been (and cannot be) distorted by central banks� firefighting and wrecking tactics.

"The search is on for the perfect hedge"...

I'll leave a bit more for you to read; my apologies if I've brought too much or too little here. It was just too good to overlook, and I'll want to re-read it a couple more times...



Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 19:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51790)
another one
http://216.46.231.211/guest3.htmHere's another one on the credit bubble; I think it's gonna be a good read...
auspec
(04/12/2001; 21:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 51791)
Mr. G
Credit Bubble Links/ArticlesThanks, Mr. G. for these links, very thought provoking in regards to the uniform and obscure debasement of all currencies. Digestion is in process, looking forward to a churning discussion directly ahead.
Horatio
(04/12/2001; 22:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 51792)
cde
CDE up 40 % today,any news ?
Mr Gresham
(04/12/2001; 22:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 51793)
Quest?
All right, Sir Michael... Did you send all the Knights out on a Quest today, and forget to tell me and a few others about it? The Castle echoes loudly in its emptiness...

(I could get theological here, and ask if there is a peculiar form of Rapture for goldbugs, and of course I've been disqualified from going along...)
Gandalf the White
(04/12/2001; 22:58:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51794)
Horatio (04/12/01; 22:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51792) --- CDE
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=CDE&time=1mHoratio --------SHHHHHHHHHHHHH !!
Look at the Link Chart !
the VAST majority of the Volume was in the last 18 minutes of trading and the HUGE 90K total was in the runoff AFTER trades had "stopped". --- YES, something is about to break and someone knows ahead of the announcement ? NAW !!
(DISCLAIMER -- YES, the Hobbits own this Silver Paper.)
<;-)
Just waking up
(04/12/2001; 23:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 51795)
To Mr. Gresham
If the dollar, yen and euro were all losing purchasing power in tandem, wouldn't the pog rise proportionately? Or are the controllers of the dollar, yen and euro forcing the pog down to cover their currency debasement?

Kind regards
Simply Me
(04/13/2001; 00:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51796)
@ Many Folks.....And My Thanks to All for Interesting Reading
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtZFwBXnQnVzaCBT@ Trail Guide
Welcome back! I am joyous...and relieved. I was getting worried that something tragic had happened to you! Eagerly looking forward to your next post. After watching the stock market slump and the gold mining companies consolidate, I'm so very curious about the Euro v. Dollar situation.

@ ET and beesting
(re: beesting post #51773)
Thank you for the introduction to Fredric Bastait!

@ tg
Refer to Link: I think the truth is about to make an appearance.

@ Rockgrabber
They invest in gold paper because they are blind to the leverage built into physical gold over the last 20 years.

@ MrGresham
No gold-bug "rapture" yet. I would surely be gone (as long as the criteria was based more on faith than knowledge of the numbers).

Thank you for the Warburton article. I especially liked...

"What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on
two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial
system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite
investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft
commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive
the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the
US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge
against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets. "

But I don't see how this makes sense...
"Beneath the surface, the values of the dollar, the yen and the euro have been eroded simultaneously by the over-extension of credit. "
How can the new euro be overextended already? Isn't part of the strategy of keeping euro interest rates low, to encourage new euro loans?


View Yesterday's Discussion.

Simply Me
(04/13/2001; 00:54:24 MDT - Msg ID: 51797)
@Sir Gresham...a correction
Of course, I didn't mean euro "interest" rates were being kept low. I meant euro value compared to the dollar....making it cheaper to borrow. SHeesh!!I hope I'm getting this right.

simply
Old Yeller
(04/13/2001; 00:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51798)
Dollar deliberations
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=40114&threadid=40051
Missed the market close today,late rally in the golds on the day before a long weekend always inspires a little optimism on my part.

Mr.Gresham,thanks for putting up the excerpts from the Warburton piece.I'd already read it at Prubear but in my haste,I obviously overlooked some significant points.The central bankers double dilemma,indeed.What these guys get away with and what lengths they will go to to keep the game going is truly amazing.

The spy plane "problem" is seemingly solved to everyone's satisfaction,or is it?In my opinion,Bush backed down in an obvious and telling matter.Was it the Chinese dollar reserves that changed the tone?The economic trade with China and the rest of SE Asia is important to both sides and is an undeniable factor in the desirability of a speedy resolution to the stand-off.However,the latest developments with the possible formation of a stability arrangement between the Asian bloc and the Chinese facing down the US are intriguing.Are the Asians finally coming to the realization that what they are receiving from their dirt-cheap consumer goods exported to the US is of dubious value at best?Looks like they have about 620 billion reasons to be nervous.

Could it possibly be that the rest of the world is tiring of the artificial prosperity of the fiat US reserve currency?The Eurpopeans are showing true resolve here in building a stable currency with lasting value.We are all in agreement on the importance of oil in the world economy.Taken in combination with the noises eminating out of Russia(very important source of oil in the future,especially the Caspian region),vis-a-vis use of the Euro,make the Euro reserve currency scenario a lot more plausible.

Lastly,has anyone noticed the apparent absurdity of the semi-conductor bottoming theory being foisted by Wall St.It goes along the lines that things are so bad they couldn't possibly be worse,therefore the bottom must be in and it's time to buy.Hello,boys and girls,these things are commodities,just like wheat,oil and orange juice.A surplus of supply usually means retrenchment and the demise of the weaker players.I'm no expert in this field,but this wishful thinking looks pretty dangerous to me.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/13/2001; 01:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51799)
Mr. Gresham, thanks for the Peter Warburton article yesterday in your msg#: 51789!
http://216.46.231.211/guest_print.htmMy apologies in advance for the length of this, but it is rather important (and related) material that is best delivered together rather than separately in smaller posts.

Mr. Warburton has either managed to absorb elements of my recent series of posts (ha ha) or else there exists an observable "truth" out there that he sees with a perspective greatly similar to mine. Happily for me, he is a better writer than myself, conveying his thoughts far more clearly than I have been able (judging from the many objections and misunderstandings of my comments). These particular following excerpts warrant special attention. Perhaps in this some will see the reflections of my argument wherein a person needs a safe haven for savings outside of the "currency of the realm". Where I have labored to stress this, perhaps it will be clearer in Mr. Warburton's presentation.

------BEGIN Warburton EXCERPTS, ordered for clarity on this point------
Monarchs of old, when hard-pressed for finance, would debase their precious metal currency by reducing its weight or by mixing in base metals to create an alloy. Hey, presto! They were able to increase the money supply and buy more munitions and enlist more soldiers. ...These debased coins were, of course, the forerunners of our modern monies...

Unfortunately, there is a giant flaw in this ... structure. Restraining the growth of the money supply does not prohibit the excessive expansion of the credit system... [the flaw] lies in the fantasy that the stock of borrowings (of all types) can somehow be divorced from the money stock.

I am coming round to the view that the external value of all major currencies is eroding and that this general erosion is able to substitute for at least a portion of the decline that one might expect in a particular currency versus its peers.

Beneath the surface, the values of the dollar, the yen and the euro [etc. currencies] have been eroded simultaneously by the over-extension of credit. ...a charge against the value of the currency, as surely as if the edges of the notes and coins had been trimmed away. The search is on for a valid yardstick, a measure of monetary value that has not been (and cannot be) distorted by central banks' firefighting and wrecking tactics.

...since all debt is borrowed money, in order to write off a debt, it is necessary to destroy part of the money supply.... What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur.

On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. [Warburton states elsewhere that "the battle on the second front (is) much easier to fight than the first....using derivatives... (and that) investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil and commodity prices."] Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.

The search is on for the perfect hedge...What would be the ideal characteristics of such a numeraire? First, it would be in fixed physical supply. Second, it would be resistant to weather-related influences. Third, its ownership would be diffuse, rendering futile any attempt to restrict supply through a non-competitive structure. Fourth, it must be freely tradable. Fifth, there would be no futures or options markets attached to it.
------END Warburton EXCERPTS---------

Randy again: Here, you must admit that a physical-based gold market very closely fits his "wish list" for the perfect savings "hedge" against the financial system. Where Mr. Warburton should reconsider his comments, however, is where he makes the following comments regarding the prospects for future dollar strength in the face of our massive trade imbalance.

Warburton suggests: "The US dollar is not as vulnerable as it may appear.....US commercial banks' overseas branches borrow in euros locally to invest the proceeds in US bonds, playing the yield curve. Thinking in these terms, a collapse of the US dollar versus the euro appears much less likely."

I suggest that he would be wise to fully consider this from Bloomberg regarding the sustainability of that "euro carry" trend he has described:

London, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Euro money-market rates had the largest gain in 1 1/2 years on expectations the European Central Bank will be slower to cut interest rates than investors previously anticipated....after the central bank unexpectedly left the rate on hold yesterday.
+
ECB President Wim Duisenberg yesterday said inflation risks "have not disappeared," adding that there's no sign of a global recession yet. He also rebuffed calls from politicians and companies for lower borrowing costs. "I hear but I do not listen," he said.
+
"The ECB is not going to be bullied into doing anything," said James Craigen, money markets manager at Gulf International Bank. "Duisenberg's decided 'we decide interest rates -- not you.' " ---END BLOOMBERG EXCERPT----

These excerpts from another Bloomberg article would also be helpful in that reconsideration:

New York, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for the first time this week against the euro as a bigger-than-expected slide in consumer confidence sparked concern economic growth may be slowing more in the U.S. than in Europe. In a Bloomberg News survey at the end of March, 56 analysts projected on average that the dollar would drop to 94 cents per euro by the end of June.
+
Today's figures, (retail sales and wholesale prices), hurt the dollar in part by bolstering a perception the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates faster than the European Central Bank... That means dollar deposits may become less attractive than those in euros.
+
In European trading... a report showed French consumer prices rose more than expected in March, which may reduce the likelihood the ECB will cut its 4.75 percent benchmark rate in coming weeks.
+
Fed policy makers next meet May 15, and many analysts expect an interest rate cut of at least 0.25 percentage point. The Fed has already dropped its benchmark rate 1.5 percentage points since the start of the year, to 5 percent. ---END excerpts----

My bottom line: Between the expectation of falling dollar exchange rates against the euro, coupled with lowering dollar interest rates versus the euro, it looks the wheels are about to come off of the dollar's support vehicle. It shall then drop faster than its "peer currencies" despite the earlier stated trend that they are all dwindling together in some degree of "lockstep".

Physical gold ownership shall be your "perfect hedge" against this "fragility of the financial system".
Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/13/2001; 01:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 51800)
For Simply Me
I think Mr. Warburton's comments about the "overextention of credit" regarding the euro (in addition to the dollar and yen that he also mentions) is perhaps a referrence to the "collective euro" over time -- that is, the euro as the single modern reflection of what has been done historically to its component legacy currencies...the lira, the franc, the mark, etc.

Must go for now...
Lafisrap
(04/13/2001; 01:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51801)
Warburton article
http://216.46.231.211/guest.htm
From the Warburton article, and commented on by Simply Me:
*** "[central banks] incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets."
***
Me: Wow, draconian brain-washing for the vulnerable, could even be described as an attempt to destroy the meaning of "value," and definitely a dirty trick, an aim to force a crooked game. But the LBMA volume tells us that a significantly large number of "super citizens" do not believe so much in these central bank currencies.
Also from the article, and deserving comment, attention, discussion:
*** The US dollar is not as vulnerable as it may appear. The key to understanding how this can happen is to consider how little information the flow of funds accounts provides about the true ownership of assets and liabilities. As far as the US external capital account is concerned, hedge funds based in the Caribbean are overseas investors. The activities of overseas branches of US commercial banks are also considered to be foreign transactions. Also, London, and Zurich are clearing-houses for all manner of nominee accounts and anonymous trusts. Around two-thirds of all US bonds recorded as UK-owned belong to UK entities representing non-residents. To fear that foreign investors will one day abstain from fresh investment in US financial assets, leaving the current account deficit uncovered and the US dollar prone, is to suppose that foreigners are the sole instigators of these external financial flows in the first place. It is quite likely that a substantial proportion of these external flow-demands for US corporate bonds and equities are, in fact, US-originated. US residents' subscriptions to leveraged hedge funds reappear as foreign investment in US securities. US commercial banks' overseas branches borrow in euros locally to invest the proceeds in US bonds, playing the yield curve.

Thinking in these terms, a collapse of the US dollar versus the euro appears much less likely. It may still occur, but more plausibly in the context of cancelled credit lines and forced asset disposals. The obvious example is the slump in the US dollar against the yen in 1998 as the hedge funds lost their credit lines from Japanese banks and were compelled to unwind their carry trades.
***

Me: Not sure how to use this information. Is this a case of "We have met the enemy, and he is us!"? Therefore, we have nothing to fear. Or, should we be all that much more afraid? Another? Others?

Lafisrap
Lafisrap
(04/13/2001; 01:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51802)
Thanks Randy

I see that you zoomed in on the same passages in the Warburton article as I and others did. That's very nice. I can't help but wonder what degree of conspiracy and collusion the central banks are engaged in. And if the euro and dollar are in a currency war, I suppose there will be no denying that when the metaphorical explosions occur and the dead bodies pile up. I also wonder if the U.S. might escalate a currency war into a military war, if necessary to maintain dollar dominance.

Lafisrap
SteveH
(04/13/2001; 03:11:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51803)
Lafisrap
The problem with the "nothing to fear" concept is that it ends up with all physical commodities in strong hands and systemic failure precipitated by the "final" strong hand possessing physical commodities. It isn't only gold that requires suppression, but all commodities, even food. The failure appears to begin with one commodity or more that can't be restrained. That would be natural gas and it seems leather. The reason for these break outs or few commodities to stand out or show their true inflationary pressures is because of universal use, lack of ability to over-produce or store. In the matter of the aforementioned commodities, there is a natural supply-demand deficit that can not be satisified presently. In the case of leather it is because of a natural (we think) animal disease. It the case of natural gas, we have a systemic dependence highly subject to availability.

Clearly, the advice that Mr. Gray Davis got from his hosts prior to his actions in CA was to avoid the appearance of panic and inflation in any actions he took. Every step that I am aware of that he took was to prevent inflation from spreading -- bond issuance, bankrupt the utility, buy the power lines. All of these actions appear to be designed to avoid normal supply and demand remdedies such as allow for both wholesale and retail price adjustments to allow the utilities to actually make a profit.

It has become all too obvious that the war is against inflation at all cost. Gold, silver, and other commodities have all been subjected to the same paper vs. real good disconnect of prices. We see it in gold because many of us were duped by what GATA claims to be the greatest fraud of two centuries -- we believed gold to be a commodity, not a monetary instrument. Natural gas users see it because their bills are rising or soon will be. But where damage control can be enacted against inflation it is being done to the detriment of the physical holder of that commodity. It has affected farmers for years. Most of the rest of us since 1994.

The six-time DOW-gold ratio of being 2:1 of the past one-hundred years or so, will adjust itself yet again. Only this time it would appear that it will be painful and fast. Anti-inflationists will do all in their power prevent the gold "fault" from adjusting but fractally speaking the odds are against them in the end. It will adjust. The question will be, who has "earthquake" insurance. Not many of us do.
Canuck
(04/13/2001; 07:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 51804)
Another//FOA
In case anyone missed posts yesterday:

Another: 51758
Gold Trail: 51757
Trail Guide: 51756
JMB
(04/13/2001; 09:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51805)
CANUCK
Re: ANOTHER #51758 I was taken by the clarity, that is to say the most stylish succinctness ever presented at USAGold. His word stayed with me throughout the day. An uplifting experience. Thank you.
Mr Gresham
(04/13/2001; 09:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51806)
Many
Steve H -- Great post! Your metaphorical mind makes the leaps that logic struggles to climb.

The picture I get from it is that it has become The Abstract ("money") vs. Everything Else (commodities, time, our lives...) and that the "Triumph of Econometrics" is that the golden boys of statistics have learned to lump all of the real things on one side of the equation and control their prices simultaneously with a big dose of media brainwashing and educational co-optation and "The Fed behind the Curtain".

(Until one little boy, like natural gas has done, points out that the Emperor's New Clothes are quite vaporous, and he is immediately packed off to a 4-year scholarship at MIT to study Advanced Fashion Design...)

One of my early attempted posts two years ago was about a final resort they would come to when the short-term debt dam threatened to break (think Gray Davis here) would be to "commoditize time" in all these categories, and sell the debt out long-term (back it with California's -- or Social Security's -- creditworthiness). To get one last spin of the debt wheel, if people were unable to do the NPV math (net present value) and see how much of a haircut they would be getting... And do it by official force if they couldn't sell it to the market.

Henri -- I heard those clinks! I'm thinking of doing a little celebrating today myself in like manner...

Simply Me -- I had the same question about Warburton saying the Euro being "overextended" in debt. It seems like the ECB might be heading for an ideal "market share" of debt among the most solvent credit quality borrowers, rather than the dollar's "we'll take anyone's used car in trade, and give you a 110% mortgage on your trailer" strategy. And I assume that the weight of overextension weakens the currency in that it tempts the local CB to bail out more borrowers (as Japan is doing) by "overprinting". Does Europe have this level of default risk, even in a bad recession?

Randy -- Interesting realization during your Warburton & Bloomberg excerpts: During recession (which is where we're going), the dollar confidence fades in the eyes of its holders, but the Euro's strengthens. Diverging debt burdens. "I don't have to outrun the bear..."

Also, Randy, as a corrective to Warburton's "Hedge Quest" caveat about gold -- that being the "futures or options markets attached to it" -- those are brittle structures AND they are (we here believe) currently stretched to their maximum effect. The worst price damage is over. The only question is how much longer is government willing and/or able to expend its "POG-suppression budget" on that task.

Also, it's an interesting observation that, while governments occasionally or frequently perform currency interventions (successfully or un-) during rapid price moves in order to make speculators think twice about piling on, they rarely if ever perform currency interventions IN ADVANCE of such price moves, and certainly never when things are already going their way. Big Hmmmmmmm....

Lafisrap: Yes, I reacted to the "offshore holdings" information as not knowing what to think about its effects, but it was certainly an addition to the idea of complexity in the who-what-where of money holdings, not the simplification of dollars-here and Euros-there and maybe-some-dollars-under-mattresses-in-Moscow. The line between "foreign" and "domestic" statistics is greatly blurred, especially when we hear that Europeans and South Americans are playing the U.S. stock and options exchanges with great enthusiasm. (Online day-traders in Frankfurt and Buenos Aires?)

People DO love to gamble. Was it Bugsy Siegel gave us Vegas?

I would have to ask: If the statistics we are basing our gold ownership upon are blurred in their clarity, should we fade this for or against our case for that position? In the impossibility of better statistical depth, I would have to guess that things are most likely "worse than we think" in that the existing statistics probably hide a more precarious situation than the one available to the public.
ET
(04/13/2001; 09:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 51807)
Randy

Hey Randy - always glad to hear your thoughts. From your reply to Mr. G -

"The search is on for the perfect hedge...What would be the ideal characteristics of such a numeraire? First, it
would be in fixed physical supply. Second, it would be resistant to weather-related influences. Third, its
ownership would be diffuse, rendering futile any attempt to restrict supply through a non-competitive structure.
Fourth, it must be freely tradable. Fifth, there would be no futures or options markets attached to it.
------END Warburton EXCERPTS---------

"Randy again: Here, you must admit that a physical-based gold market very closely fits his "wish list" for the
perfect savings "hedge" against the financial system."

Yes - but note carefully his fourth and fifth criteria; it must trade freely and must not have a futures and options market attached. In my opinion you and the author are making the same mistake but from different directions. You claim to not want gold to trade freely as money by removing its "currency function" while the author claims to want gold to trade as money but only in certain circumstances (no derived functions). Both create distortions.

Your system of the future fails in that you would not want gold to trade freely, its price set arbitrarily. The author's system would be fine except for the prohibition of futures and options. Derivatives can only be popular under a closed system of trade such as today's, (gold's price arbitrarily fixed). If hard money was the rule, futures and options would serve little purpose as volatility would be markedly reduced. In other words, there would be little reason to hedge, gold would "be" the hedge. Futures and options would therefore find few trades as the free market would find little use for them. There would be no reason to arbitrarily ban them as some traders might still find uses for them. Government decree is not the answer.
Canuck
(04/13/2001; 09:46:01 MDT - Msg ID: 51808)
Must be getting tough to sell mutual funds
My financial planner emailed me yesterday looking to see if I wanted to buy any funds.

My reply:

Hi Mary,

Thanks for the sites; I will check them out over the week-end.

Do you have any time between April 23rd and the 27th?

I was in a real estate office yesterday and had an interesting conversation with an agent. Apparently they are seeing the 'topping' in housing prices and expect alot of new listings this spring but unlike the last year or so where buyers were 'bidding' up prices they expect sellors to 'bid down' prices. His advice to me was sell immediately with a very, very long closing and buy at the last moment with a co-inciding close.

Are we at the beginning of the bursting of the real estate 'bubble'?

I had chatted with Bob in the past about BEARX, an American fund (bearish) and I was hoping that he could find an equivalent RRSP eligible Canadian fund. He had no luck. I found BEARX at 'prudentbear.com'.

I find the Euro story most fascinating. Along with the European member countries, parts of Asia, Russia and the Middle East express growing interest in the 'common currency' as the introduction nears 01/01/2002.
There seems to be aligning forces towards Europe and away from the Unites States.

The oil and energy stories in the last couple years are also interesting. Control of oil production is ever so slowly shifting to the Middle East ('swing share'), is it any wonder why OPEC becomes more bold as time passes? Notice the calamities in California in the last year; natural gas has become the culprit to electricity woes. As a result of this pressure have you caught the price of coal and uranium?
Oil, natural gas, gasoline and electricity are simultaneously nipping at the heels of the US economy. Will they rebound out of this or is the US consumer next to fall as corporate America has done so in the last year?

There seems to be a convergence of forces internationally and domestically that may cause the USA to step down from its extremely high perch.

The fund that I am looking for has an objective like this:

"The goal of this fund is to focus on instability in the US dollar, capitalize on currency shifts and exploit weakness's in US domoniated assets. 'Shorting' corporations whose P/E's remain absurd and 'shorting' the real estate 'bubble' are paramount. Strategically investing in future gains in oil, gas, base metals and precious metals is also of utmost importance. We don't listen to analysts whose mandate is to screw the last nickel out of investors so that their empirical brokerages can reach multi-billion dollar levels in profit. We also invest heavily in organizations whose primary objective is to expose crooked governments orchestrating manipulations of financial markets.
And last but not least, we are eyeing the banking community at large.
We believe that exorbinant excesses in credit creation, and as a result, the 'derivative' exposure thereof, may very well cause the systematic failure of the entire planet. We believe that every balance sheet starting with the individual right through to the largest corporation and country is bankrupt and when the general populance realizes this the proverbial 'excrement will hit the fan'."

Know of such a fund?

ET
(04/13/2001; 09:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 51809)
beesting, simply me

My pleasure! Everybody should read "The Law". Things haven't changed much since Bastiat's day, have they?
PH in LA
(04/13/2001; 09:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 51810)
Keeping to the point.
JMB:

Your words (# 51805), on the other hand, are more likely destined to be remembered as some of the most forgettable ever posted here. Which also applies to the post which preceded yours. Humor does certainly have its place. But let us not turn this forum into a laughing stock where the same disruptors post time after time with the same feeble attempts to get laughs, with the same feeble results... day after day, after day, after day... etc.
ET
(04/13/2001; 10:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51811)
David Dieteman
http://www.lewrockwell.com/dieteman/dieteman40.html
From the article;

"Thank God there was no U.N. in 1776, and thank God that France and the
Netherlands, at that time, were happy to run guns and gunpowder into the
Caribbean for pick-up by American "rebels and resistance groups" fighting a war
of secession against Mother England.

"To imagine the world after the U.N. leaves only governments and their armies
with weapons, consider the cautionary tale of Father Murphy and the disastrous
Irish Rebellion of 1798, when Irish Catholics dutifully turned in their weapons to
their English government � in exchange for death at the hands of English troops.

"The Times also reports that "The European Union, Japan and the Nordic states are
generally the most enthusiastic about strong measures on global gun control."
ET
(04/13/2001; 10:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 51812)
Michael Peirce
http://www.lewrockwell.com/peirce/peirce34.html
From the article;

"My suggestion is even more radical. Disarm the police. Now! Today! Arm the
citizens. We are the ones who pay the taxes, build the cars, sell the products and
program the computers. We matter damn it! Why on earth should rioters be
allowed to pull us out of our cars while we are coming home from a hard day's
work and beat us? Should we tolerate this? I think not.

"When people start beating us and destroying or burning our
property, we should shoot them. That this sounds radical is itself a
symptom of the madness that has descended upon our nation like a
dark shroud. For the America of old is long gone. We hold no
"truths to be self evident," we just stumble down the road to
oblivion, wondering what went wrong."
Belgian
(04/13/2001; 10:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 51813)
INTEREST RATES !!!!! (IR)
Some definitions as a starter :

- IR = the price for renting money.
- IR = the price where a creditor, trusts, his debtor.
- IR = the price of future-trust into the currency.
- IR = the price result of offer/demand on money.

IR is not the result (anymore) of an agreement between a money-have and a money-have-not ! IR lost its signal function as well as Gold. It is the authoritarian moneyprinter, who decides on IR. It is not the reflexion of private trust and risk.
To simplify things a bit, just imagine, your neighbour asks you for a loan. Reflect on all arguments you are going to take into account to determine your IR. Next, you just imagine you are a paper money-printer and need votes to remain employed. Than we can all agree that there is something very strange about the IR-behaviour of the last 20 years in particular. Are IR reflecting Debt-evolution and money-depreciation ? Forget about the complicating lalalas (defla/infla/stagfla). Just concentrate on the amount of debt against expansion and currency depreciation against products and services over time.

A 200 year chart of Govt Bond (30 yrs) is a real beauty :
From 1800 to 1940, we have a steadily declining IR from 8% to the ATL of 2% in 1940. It is after WWII that the IR started its 40 years of parabole, with the ATH of 16% in 1980. This parabole was an impuls 5 wave pattern and Kondratieff cycle is accepted to have started in 1949.

What happened in 1980 that made IR plunge from 16% to 5% in 1998 ? How was it possible that the rent of money could decline so drastically, when the price of everything increased during that period ? What is the paradox of the past 20 years ? Would you have lent your savings to your neighbour in 1980 ? Was that high IR compensating for the loss in buying-power ? Check the price of a loaf of bread...a haircut...a newspaper...a car !

Are these lower IR, reflecting a real decline in currency-depreciaten "SPEED" ? Was it the knowledge that Debt couldn't default anymore ? Was there plenty of cheap (worthless) money available (for rent) to finance the biggest expansion ever ? Was the past expansion a Fata Morgana ? Was it only a Speculative bubble that had its orgasm (sorry !) ?
Is there something we are overlooking ? Salaries followed the cost of living. Productivity, produced better for the same price relative to increased income. Was this the reason for money-creation ? And was it the purpose to lower the IR to avoid bankruptcy in 1980 ?

Is it the global "Wealth Effect" of the SMs, that derived attention from currency-depreciation ? And can we really speak of depreciation when we have more dollars in the pocket to buy the stuff that increased in price ?

Isn't it remarquable that everything else increased in price over the past 20 years with the both execptions of decreasing IR and POG ? At least for IR, I could find an explanation that the more paper is available at low rent...the less pricing power a money-have has. The paper-printer (Govt) is taking over with its paper presses.

Isn't it also quite remarquable that POG= 260$ is the same price as 20 years ago just before the 850$ spike ?
Why did POG spike when the SM plunged ? It is rather paradoxal that the commodity (!) price of gold is increasing when contraction is obvious ?

Is it because fiat has become a priori worthless that IR are set arbitrarely ? It takes 12 years to double your 6% bond. What happened to prices over the last 12 years ?
Have they doubled ? And how do we have to explain with some logic the japanese phenomina of zero rate and declining Yen ? How do these No I japanese savers assess their situation ? The second world-economy and free-rent-money !
The Big Pretender "US$" with his relative high IR against Euro and Yen. If you are the strongest one...why do you need such a high IR ? Compare with past behaviour of the Swiss franc. As solid as a rock with rockbottom IR.

Debt explosion and depreciation was more or less halted on its temporarely extreme in 1980. This for the only reason that a managed plunging IR was providing oxygen and delay in final execution. Once the ongoing economic contraction is going to pressure irredeemable debt again...we wil experience drastic "CHANGE". The extreme volatility in the SM, for already such a long period, is enough evidence for me, of extreme anomaly and fundamental rot !
Natural and honest growth is not accompagned with the actual speculative excesses.

How long can we bring more money into circulation to keep up with higher prices ? Can this be achieved with lower IR ?
Is this fundamental contradiction, the definition, of "depreciation" without the 3 lalalalas ?
Will dollar/euro/yen depreciate in tandem (as already mentionned here) ? Is my old suggestion of 1 dollar=1 euro=100 yen, a hidden agenda ? Will all IR decline to the natural 2% zone, for taking a concerted new start (NWO:?) ?

Or is it the each one on his own "Hyperinflation" that will bring the unavoidable Change ? IR aren't anticipating this for now.
Sorry, gentlemen, but I need some help on this IR-thing...again.
auspec
(04/13/2001; 10:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 51814)
Paul van Eeden and Exploration Companies
http://www.pve.net/artcls/041101.htmMr van Eeden is an occasional poster and writer for USAGOLD's Opinion page. Unfortunately he has insufficient time to allow for regular posting. His newest article at the above link is entitled "How To Make Money In Worldwide Exploration". It shows the pendulum of gold exploration swinging too far in the direction of under-production as well as the current opportunity available in the junior mining sector {for those inclined to venture past physical ownership alone}. An excerpt from the article follows:
<>
<


The junior exploration company can therefore focus its efforts on project generation. This part of the exploration process requires imagination, an ability to conceptualize and understand geological events that lead to ore deposition, extraordinary skill and hard work. This is where an entrepreneurial geologist working in a small company, in which he owns a substantial equity position, can really excel.



In the end it all comes down to the three basic principles of investment. Just like real estate, there are three things that are crucial for success: management, management and management.>> END

USAGOLD- Thank you for the fine "management, management, management" that allows this Forum to illuminate the path ahead.









JMB
(04/13/2001; 10:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 51815)
PH in LA
Hi there Grasshopper. Have you considered changing your prescription? You gotta try them "Happy Pills".
Tannehill
(04/13/2001; 11:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 51816)
auspec @ van Eeden


Golden thanks for the link to Paul van Eeden. Saw this at his website

"Geology drives the mining, not engineering
Another major difference at Harmony is that they let the ore body's geology dictate the production as opposed to South Africa's traditional focus on engineering. When Harmony took over Evander, there was only one geologist to oversee all the operations. Evander now has fifteen geologists and they are in the market for more. As you may recall, each production team now has its own geologist. "

Going from one to 15 that growth. Enough said.

love this bumper sticker Buy physical put a geologist to work.
That's all from Tannehill
TheStranger
(04/13/2001; 11:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 51817)
The Incredible Dollar
Warburton notwithstanding, the following tidbit appeared in an article about the dollar on the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal:

"...the dollar is looking suspiciously like the Nasdaq Composite Index did a year ago -- something that rises so far so fast that the only issue is when it will come down and how fast. The higher it goes, the scarier. A stable or even slightly lower dollar might be quietly welcomed at Treasury. A dollar crash would not. No one knows how to get the first without risking the second."
auspec
(04/13/2001; 11:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51818)
Belgian
{IR}Hello, good Sir! Thanks for your IR perspective. Unfortunately, I suffer from a dearth/lack of access to sufficient grey matter to be of much help. I do have a few comments and an entirely unrelated question for you.
We are all grateful for the lower IRs and curse the hidden erosion of fiat. Fiat is debt and designed to inflate, that's the beauty of it to the banksters. As Doug McIntosh said in his most recent article "It's the debt stupid". Without credit/debt expansion the system implodes, and without low interest rates there can be no continued credit bubble. They would like this to be everlasting and totally satisfying as opposed to premature {also sorry!}.
This is a rather simplistic view, of course, but the various CBs need relative low interest rates for the entire system to continue. I have had a 13% mortgage in the past and they simply can't go there again. That was an old game. When one IR goes to an extreme low {Japan}, it is simply used via the carry trade to support another linked currency, our own Banana. You oil my press and I'll oil yours. For this strategy to work you must just kill off the various alternatives, gold being NUMERO UNO. Low interest rates are supposed to lead us back to gold, right? Pitfall.
The key question is what the Power Elite will do WHEN gold breaks free. If they have gone to this extent to suppress it over the many years, why would they not again grab or outlaw it when it breaks FREE? Good luck to them, of course. Will it be a parrt of the next {NWO} financial system? Not if they can help it, as they are addicted to the presses. Gold and resources are for them and fiat is for us. If they had NO other choice but to utilize a gold standard to arrive at a one world currency, then we will see it. It may be the "bait". Whatever they come up with, it will be a real bastard in the literal sense of the word.

Now, Sir Belgian, for my unrelated question: I know you rely on technical analysis a lot. Can you give a classic description of the accumulation pattern and its most common end result? We {I} like to think our favorite commodities and mining stocks are under an intense accumulation by the very "smartest money" players. Do you see this in various charts? I've seen the bowl shaped pattern in regards to gold or silver {can't remember which}, but await the spike {?}. TIA
Mr Gresham
(04/13/2001; 11:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51819)
PH in LA, JMB, Belgian
PH -- was just thinking about you. Are you one of the 6 people in LA who doesn't have a screenplay out for sale? The "mysterious financial poster on the Internet" story has certainly struck me as worthy of a treatment. Have to go back and read my old Erdman novels.

JMB -- without humor we'd be a cold, drafty Castle indeed. (I do recall you having a pretty good sense of humor in the past.) But I sure hope that the utmost of R-E-S-P-E-C-T among us all will be the order of the day if Another arrives and wants to stick around, don't you? Something I've been looking forward to for quite awhile now, and I'm not embarrassed to ask for you to contribute your best thoughts now as you have in the past...

Belgian -- "Isn't it remarquable that everything else increased in price over the past 20 years with the both execptions of decreasing IR and POG ? " You nailed it again, looking at those long-term charts. The sense of inevitability -- something is now upside-down in the long historical order of things -- we just don't know the "When" on our micro-scale of time.
auspec
(04/13/2001; 12:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 51820)
Tannehill
Hello Tannehill,
Glad you are enjoying Paul's website, many jewels there. Couple of points in regards to current mining practices:
You are most likely very aware of the end result of current "high grading" pervasiveness. This strips these mines of the very best portions and in essence shortens their lifespan, or possibly ruins the asset altogether. ANOTHER reason the pendulum swings excessively in one direction for the YELLOW. The current practice of producing at fire sale prices is also giving away the "farm". Some have no choice, but those who do will begin correcting this error. The "Harmony Way" will become apparent to many mining executives. Flexibility, incentives, and decision making at a smaller level. They obviously have it going in the right direction and will be one of the many HUGE winners when this consolidation/suppression ends.

We have seen various "lines in the manure" drawn by the gold banksters, $300, $290, $260{?}. If they can continue to ratchet it down, as surely has been their game plan, they can escape the wrath aimed at them, and switch directions. What are the sources to bail out the shorts? Taxpayers of course, presses, resources grabbed during current manipulation, confiscation, or an unlikely failure by the BBs going down alone. Too many obstacles for them to achieve $200 POG, as they wouldn't solve their problem with a spike to $200, but would have to have a SUSTAINED POG there. No chance, too many smart people in the markets. Bring it on!
Tannehill-- Most of your geologists are now in another line of work, and won't be available for hiring at the drop of a hat, right? That pendulum has almost broken FREE from its base. Best to you.
JMB
(04/13/2001; 12:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 51821)
Mr. Gresham
Thank you for that artful chastisement which is received with a debt of gratitude. I will certainly display a respectful demeanor, that is until my medication wears off.
Humble Pie
(04/13/2001; 12:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 51822)
post by Peter Hatch in L A
Your tactfull critque of # 51805 is how it should be done.Glad to see you still live and kicking. have a nice weekend.
beesting
(04/13/2001; 13:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 51823)
Belgian # 51813 I.R.
Thank You Sir for your fine post as it ignited these fragmented speculative thoughts from me:

Most here have heard of the 11 years of banking financial problems in Japan, but as Sirs J-Bear and IronHead have testified from first hand experience( if I understood correctly) the man in the street in Japan,does not seem to be any worse off, because of the banking problem,normal life goes on.

Belgian, this was my thought:
What if "ALL" paper debts were some day payed off???

Lets suppose a banking default was allowed to happen in Japan, where all banking debt was allowed to be written off.(Bankruptcy of the Japanese banking system)
Who would lose? Who would gain?
Answers:
The losers would be all holders of paper Japanese banking debt. The banks and stockholders! The Yen on an international level would be manipulated like crazy as it would have "NO" debt backing, only Japans Gross National Product backing, Gold backing,and the percieved political stability of the country. Another words trade might eventually be consumated with an internationaly accepted medium of exchange....GOLD!??

The winners would be IMHO the savers. The man on the street in Japan would in all probability still accept Yen for goods and services at the same rate as always on domestic products. Imported goods may flucuate wildly in price until a new international value(maybe based on POG) was agreed upon for the Yen.
A side note:
When I was in Japan many years ago large purchases(homes and cars) for an average family were in most cases paid for in "CASH", unheard of in the U.S. The average Japanese did not have all paper assets tied up in the banking system.

Sooo, though this is a pipedream,,,,,The Fifth Horseman could also be:::: For ""ALL"" debt to be retired, worldwide over a period of years as people are re-educated to understand the harm caused by unlimited debt expansion. Abolish the international creators of debt IMF/World Bank!
Don't laugh, many in the Islamic countries around the world may be right now practicing a no debt society. Do these same people accept Gold as an international medium of exchange? My guess would be a loud, YES!
Thoughts Only! Thanks For Reading.....beesting.
Belgian
(04/13/2001; 14:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 51824)
Gresham/Auspec/Stranger and Others
Our daily bread doubled in price the last ten years. The average "NET" salary only increased with 35% . Standard of living improved thanks to 1/ extended welfare additions and 2/ double income from mother/woman/housewife/etc...
It is that second income that is hiding the depreciation !
My parents had the same standard of living with only one income. But had to perform double the amount of results with much harder work than today. But most youngsters of today don't bother to take a look at yesterday. They want to speculate and be left alone. So be it.

Auspec: I'm afraid to give my opinion...because I'm too positive (optimistic) ! Anyway, it is the inter-relation, behaviour of mines and POG, that has always been the lead.
I'm not following XAU or any other index. But only 2 mine leaders : Anglogold and Gold Fields. They also inter-relate on each other in function to POG.

Both (supposed) bottom patterns are slightly different in nature : AU = flat/saucer/rounding - GF = inverse SHS-like.
Both bottoms are full 2 yrs of age in line with POG.
The second half of this bottom is diverging positively from POG, with recent outspoken strenght for mines and weak POG versus dollar. In itself these positive divergences can excist without necessary positive conclusions. But it is the particular way that the daily ticks in mines are building, rightly opposite to what one should expect them to do in relation with POG. Sorry, this is getting a bit messy. Major holders of AU are adapting the share price to the expected dividend. Once AU has reached the appropiate (dividend) price...bottom-accumulation starts in a very astute way. These shareholders are accumulating within a certain price-range. The expected dividends are also POG related and reflect therefore their insider knowledge of possible future POG projections. As to today they seem to act as if 250$ was the bottom for POG.
The moment these long term loyal shareholders suspect a lower POG, they will immediately dump as to readjust the price of AU. They will do it before POG is showing its weakness.
Of course this is nothing new. I am convinced that all core shareholders are managing their company's stockprice, with the insider knowledge. Wasn't this the name of the game for the major part of the SM in the past ?

Other mines must confirm or contradict the leader's moves.
Unhedged Gold Fields is contradicting POG's weakness.
I translate this as follows : POG's weakness was connected to temporarely strenght in the dollar. And not indicating intrinsic weakness.

I have the strong impression that the accumulation is done in such a subtle manner, that it is not the kind of short term run for a speculative attempt to make a profit.
The silent strenght is not accentuated with strong volume bombardements to lure the masses into the play.
These insiders, most probably know exactly, when POG will strengthen or weaken.
The 21 yrs decline + bottom formation gives a wonderfull picture for what has to come. If the up-trend is confirmed, we arrive immediately in pseudo-uncharted territory, with enormous upside potential. Please, aknowledge that this is my intuition only !!!!
As Stranger mentionned...it's the dollar Stupids !
Slowly but surely, attention will shift to the dollar's status. It was the first thing the new administration wanted to talk about, altough in confusing terms (remember !)
Gold is incredibaly CHEAP ! Against all possible comparable tangibles. This was for me the niciest of invitations for starting to dive into Gold's deep waters. I must admit it is the second time, I've bought Gold. First was the heavenly run in the '80-ties. But this time, I'm not going to sell any ounce of it. We will never see these ridiculous and mania Low prices. Value for almost nothing. Ideal to transfer my modest savings for the next generation.
Note : this is not a commercial or advice !

There is also a ressemblance of the POG and IR chart, when looked at from some distance. It is suggesting that both are rounding up. The AG, panic lowering of IR, has troubled this intuitive indication. If one day the dollar-index breaks the 100/90 zone...an defensive IR-rise will be the first impulsive reaction as to avoid effective inflalalala.
The same reflex took place in the 1929 deroulement. It was the straw that crushed the buffulo's neck.
Our discussions on this forum gave me the insight that the powers to be, have been managing quite a lot of spectacular events in the last 30 years I could trace with more or less reliable evidence. 1980 : stop and reverse POG + IR.
1985 : stop and reverse Reagan dollar. 2001 : well, can they stop and reverse WHAT ? The surely didn't want to stop the SM. They still want to reverse it from falling. But they succeeded in stopping the fall of the dollar and the rise of POG. Dollar and POG will reverse themselves ?
For the simple reason they wanted to hide the enormous DEBBIE DEBBIE. Were it our spouses who were responsible for the un-natural prolonged expansion ? Well, I'm honestly thinking it is as simple as that. Double the economic activity of these Boomers and let's try to find a solution for that incredible debtberg, so visible in 1980. Let's solve this problem...with moooooooore debt. Let's give Debt wheels and roll-it-over Beethoven.

Intuition tells me w're gone see IR of 2% again. Much later of course. After the destruction of ALL bad money. Gold will inspire again as never before.
The past expansion was un-natural. Most commodities didn't react as they should do in normal growth. Modern Valuations are based on another norm scale. Status...popularity...hype..mania...trends ? But digging to even 5.000 meters to get a 5.000 year old shiny thing seems to be worthless. They can make us believe lots of BS, but after a while, I'm disconnecting from collective hysteria.
Hope you don't mind folks.



Randy (@ The Tower)
(04/13/2001; 14:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 51825)
The world is watching....a choice between tools
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1275000/1275508.stmBBC HEADLINE: ECB president raps eurozone knuckles

Excerpts:

----- The European Central Bank held its nerve on Wednesday and did not cut European rates unnecessarily. ...Wim Duisenberg made two comments after the meeting of the ECB that bear examination. -------

[My interjection just to organize this: First, he said the slowdown in eurozone growth "should not be a source of pessimism". According to OECD's forecast, the growth rate was going to slow down to 2.7%, which is still GROWTH by their measure. Meanwhile, by way of contrast, the Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times since January, with expectations of more to come to ease the risk of America's slide into a recession.]

BBC concludes:
------The other comment by president of the ECB was a rap on the knuckles for the governments of the eurozone. He said that "monetary policy cannot lift the euro area's production potential".
+
Basically Mr Duisenberg was saying that if the eurozone's governments are that worried about the threat of a slowdown they could do a lot themselves to help matters by reforming their economies.
The ECB seems to have decided that it is a bit too easy to expect Europe's central bankers to bail out its governments by cutting rates when inflation is still above target.-----

Bottom line: On the global scene regarding INSTANTANEOUS trade, choosing a currency to denominate the transaction is really nothing more than a trivial mathematical exercise. At any single moment in time, a price in terms of one currency can alternately be given in any multitude of other currencies through simple multiplication by the pertinent exchange rates. Regarding the more important issue of preservation of purchasing power OVER TIME, however, more careful consideration is required. On the global scene, one must be mindful of reasonable short- and mid-term expectations of the changing exchange rates between the various currencies, and especially of the general trend of these currency prices against real goods and services.

The world is watching the unfolding fundamental distinctions between the euro and the dollar as operating decisions are made for the time ahead. Given the mounting evidence, which one do you believe is poised to hold up in value best against the other? The dollar is looking sickly, to be sure. And when it comes to poise for holding value against goods and services over the long-term, we surely turn away from both dollar and euro currencies because physical gold beats every paper currency under the sun. Central banks know this, and that is why the legacy IMF reserve model is going the way of the dinosaur.

You will want to hold gold through the full phase of this coming transition of international reserves because the dollar value shall be losing its firmest leg of support.
Belgian
(04/13/2001; 15:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51826)
Beesting and Bankrupt Japan !
Sir, that's a difficult one to chew.
Japan is very difficult for me to understand. Am already glad that I think to understand a tiny piece of our own culture. But one particular aspect is familiar : Numero Uno in savings. And this makes it probably more understandable of what should happen when they should decide on banking default. Something similar happened after WWII in Europ.
Operation Gutt : monday morning news : all paper money will be changed for other paper money. All savings and accounts are frozen and will be gradually released to the owners in specific tranches of NEW money. All paper from under the matrasses must be exchanged for new upgraded money.
This is INSTANT DEPRECIATION. All debts will be settled in new money. 1.000 becomes 100. Too late to buy gold or other tangibles. Complete depreciation became a fact, overnight.

Of course we have to discuss your scenario in function of our physical gold stash. The japanese goldholder can always exchange his physical gold for dollars. With this dollars, he buys new yens. And in the case of the 1000/100 exchange...he has multiplied his amount of new yens by ten.
Say 1000 new yens.

But the world has changed since WWII. All currencies are valued against the dominant dollar. The world has gone global. That's why the japanese are waiting for the details of the govt fund for supporting the banks by buying stock as to prevent bankruptcy the old fashion lalala way.
Yes, I do repeat : buying stock with fresh created paper to prevent bankruptcy. In '95 there was a '29-style bank-run in Japan. People were waiting for trucks to bring in the paper ! This was no big news then !? All reputated analysts, I've spoken to are unanimous in saying that debt is NO problem at all and the only thing that must be prevented is : brutal shock ! This answer hasn't changed for almost the last 10 years ! And indeed, LTCM (and other) shocks) were avoided and contained.

The same goes for the Euro. 12 different currencies are exchanged for a new currency. There is lot of speculation on price-rises or a globo zero effect ? A lot of regulation is already in place to prevent the trend of spontanious price increases. This is evidence that when a currency is exchanged, you create doubt and uncertainty with inflalalala as a result.

So, your question leaves us with what will happen to the rest of the world when Japan defaults ? IMHO : SHOCK !
This Numero Due has more weight than Turkey. Japan is a dollar-holder. And what will happen with this mountain of accumulated dollars in case of bankruptcy, is anyones guess.
Because we don't know how this new debt-free yen will relate to the dollar and Asean currencies.Remember the Chinese Yuan (renmimbi) in lalala land . These are IMO the shocks they are constantly trying to avoid in a global economic tissue. It is from this perspective that the Euro is gaining its importance.

And for this reason of mounting incertitude, we take refuge in the certitude of Gold. We will be able to choose when, where we are going to do what !
Is this perspective of a global one way street with death end that is resulting in an unspoken agreement to lower POG?
There must be a link in one way or another. And I have a tendency to believe that it is not only Euro related.
There must be more global bias. But certainly to complicated for me to see or understand, now.
But Hashimoto / Greenspan / different Europeans (WA), have been mentionning Gold, with strong statements. And therefore my intuition and instinct is alarmed. They have been setting up a global safety net. They don't care if people are looking for safety in real estate, because this is always taxable � la carte. Another funny detail is that VAT on gold was abolished a few years ago. Why ?


Mr Gresham
(04/13/2001; 15:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 51827)
JMB: on the run...
Didn't Teacher use to say?: Don't bring your meds to school if you're not willing to share them with the entire class... (We're all gonna need something on the roller coaster ride ahead.)
Topaz
(04/13/2001; 16:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 51828)
Belgian (04/13/01; 15:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51826)
JMB@51805 - LOLFYI...This Tax on Gold has me confused. Up until recently here in Australia, all Au/Ag coins etc were treated the same ie: Not Taxed - however since the introduction of the GST (like a VAT) all but 24k is now taxed.
This means only numismatic interest is retained in the "old world" coinage and investment sentiment is herded to the "newer - Legal Tender" coinage.
Bars etc are still Taxfree however.
Solomon Weaver
(04/13/2001; 17:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 51829)
A little light on Japan
Belgian and Beesting

Having lived for a little while in Japan, I can offer a little cultural insight.

1. Japan has an immense history....layers that thrive in traditions today....one great one is the role of family. One of the reasons why Japanese have such a high savings rate is because they all have very large obligations....paying $30,000-50,000 for a daughter's wedding...sending thousands of dollars to a distant relative upon the death of a spouse...they use savings for reasons we use insurance.

2. The primary "debt" in the minds of all Japanese is the network of "non-financial" obligations...i.e. relationship obligations that will cost them money but are not denominated in yen and are not under formal legal contract. These are debts to eachother upon which they will never default.

3.If there is a major default coming out of Japan, it is a default of the Government. Read Davidson and Mogg, The Sovereign Individual, and simply understand that Japan's Government will not survive....because regional enclaves in Japan are very strong. Japan is uniquely poised to do well in a deconstruction of centrist organisations.

4. The Yen did not grow strong because of hegemony....it grew strong because generations of Japanese people worked their behinds off for post WWII Corporations who created massive export machines.......needed to fund all those imports like oil and food (they even import California Sake)....they built the most powerful trading nation in Asia centered around a very dense Shinkansen line that strings Harbors together like pearls.

5. The bottom line of many families looks very strong in Japan...and many Director Level Joes (Or Hiroshis)go home every night on the regional train (not a Lexus) to flop with their wife and kids in a 900 ft2 apartment (not a leveraged 3000 ft2 home) where the mother in law lives with them. They are actually quite poor in some way...very simple. Much more ready than Americans to weather the course of a worldwide financial storm.

A sinking America will certainly hit Japan hard....but they have lifeboats......the idea that finanacial contagion in Japan is the cause of the worldwide liquidity crisis is not because they are ill-liquid and laden with debt...it is because Keynes was not Confusion.....the Asian mind does not really operate on supply-side economics.

Poor old Solomon
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/13/2001; 20:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 51830)
Michael D. - You've got mail
Be sure to read post # 51810 in regards to # 51805 in regards to # 51758.
Interesting, to say the least!

Very respectfully,

HBM
USAGOLD
(04/13/2001; 20:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 51831)
Japan. . . .
Thank you, Solomon Weaver, for insights that define what this Forum is all about. Glad you're back.

Belgian . . . .Relish each post you make. Thank you for being here.

All. . .What can I say. I'm humbled by what you have done with these pages. Proud to be a part of it and be able to provide this venue. I never thought it would become what it has. In talking with Jeff yesterday on some technical matters, he chuckled at the success of this forum. Who would have guessed? Thanks to all. May God bless and keep you -- each and every one.

USAGOLD International: We're here for you.
Tree in the Forest
(04/13/2001; 20:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 51832)
Belgian, Randy, Auspec
Belgian: Regarding interest rates. I can remember looking for a mortgage circa 1980. Hard just to find a bank giving mortgages much less at 14% which was what I could afford. I got the mortgage but remember talking to people whose parents were just paying off mortgages from 1940's (1950's?) who had been paying 4%. Why were interest rates so low before WWII? Simple. 1)A high savings rate meant that banks were awash in money and anxious to lend. 2)Demand for credit was low (no credit cards) meaning banks were even more motivated to lend. 3)And finally low inflation. So for these three reasons, interest rates were at 4%. Why did they go so high in 1980? As I understood it, Volcker closed the spigot to squash inflation and jacked rates thru the roof. The inflation was a direct result of Nixon closing the gold window. ORO has previously identified your monster 1971 debt glitch as a debt restructuring of the United States due to our default on Bretton Woods (gold window) which put the US officially into bankruptcy. We are still in it now. Our current low interest rates are because we are floating on the greatest debt bubble and overextension of credit in history. Easy credit=low interest rates. Add to this the masking of inflation both by the credit extension itself (per Warburton) and by the manipulation of gold and commodity prices and this adds to low interest rates.

Randy: With the Euro holding firm on interest rates, the die is cast. We have crossed the Rubicon. Couple this with impending default on Comex and we can expect fireworks this summer. It's only a matter of time now.

Auspec: At least one poster over on GE has postulated (based on some kind of religious/astrological predictions) that at least certain elements of the cabal are doomed. Looking at other criteria seems to point in this direction also. The IMF for example may wind up with a significantly reduced role. While they may not disappear, the cabal (or at least some part of it) may be in a rough ride in the future. There is reason for cautious optimism. But there may need to be one more war first. This summer. Followed by a denoument perhaps by the end of the year.
SHIFTY
(04/13/2001; 20:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 51833)
IronHead
IronHead : Thanks for the Golden Cure!
I hope I never have to use it , but I know I unfortunately will someday. I wanted to thank you last night but one of my dogs poked me in the eye with her nose. I think she scratched my eye because I could not keep it open until today.
It made it impossible to read.

$hifty
auspec
(04/13/2001; 22:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 51834)
Christian
ABC'sStill working for some more synaptic connections as they relate to your gold and credit creation scenario. Please allow me to boil it down to some simple ABC's from what I can understand so far for more direction from you.
Let's say A is a Central Bank with gold to lend to B, a Bullion Bank. B turns around and sells the gold {on the "open market" supposedly} to C who is most frequently a pre arranged entity , likely another Central Bank. Now, stepping back and viewing these transactions from afar makes one wonder{?} who owns/controls these various entities. Most all Central Banks are Siamese Twins {only one hypoactive conscience among them} conjoined at the wallet and they have full control if not outright ownership of your JPM's and GS's, etc. Common gene pool, no?
Why would they shuffle this gold around this way? They know for sure yet there is much we can see. They get to play currency and commodity {gold} games as the paper POG wags the physical dog. Gold moving to another CB destination allows for your "gold credit creation" wherever needed. Instant liquidity for the fiat games. Our Central Bank C can turn around and bail out the bullion Bank B with the new liquidity if required {taxpayers preferred}, all pre arranged again.
What do oil interests receive? They get to salvage for gold wherever they can find it at paper gold prices. They're happy and play along. Same with jewelry afficionados. Same with physical gold advocates!
Of course some gold leaves the vaults for "unwashed" hands, so we have little idea of the TRUE short position. If the "massive short position" in gold is being used for leveraged credit creation it is not nearly the 'nekked' position many assume, plenty available for a fiat rescue. The gold stays with the same gene pool so if NEVER returned so what? If they exchange gold in hand for gold in the ground in secure hands, what do they care? Just another small and simple ploy in a much larger fiat theatre. Let the games.......continue.
To quote FOA from March 1998 {thanks Randy}: "Now that the gold price in US$ is around production cost, most mines must use "paper gold" to survive. The gold industry is coming under world bank domination, without signing away any sovereignty! Slowly, the CBs are gaining the ability to manage production and price with this simple tool" { Me- basically controlling the amount of gold supply that hits the market}. END
So this process also is part of a global resource grab. They can't wait until it is actually in our hands this time, taking it in the ground. Must be some pretty good stuff, maybe I need more, hmmmm.
Help me out if you will, Christian or anyone else, as this is simply a framework of thought. Trying to put the jigsaw puzzle together without the master picture. You are obviously referring to CBs as making use of gold for leveraged credit creation, as who else could do this? If an individual had sufficient quantity, say a Saudi Prince, could he not play along? Christian, can you advance your premises a bit more for all to follow? Thank in advance.
auspec
(04/13/2001; 22:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 51835)
Tree #51832
Yes, Sir{Tr}ee, there are rough waters ahead for all. If they sacrifice the IMF the BIS or some other alphabet soup scrap will do their bidding. None of this looks easy ahead, and free gold advocates are clearly in the way. Great place to be, no?
beesting
(04/13/2001; 22:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 51836)
Solomon Weaver & Belgian a few more thoughts on Japan.
Solomon, good to see you posting again, and thanks for the added insight into the Japanese life style.

I read recently on Bloomberg that the Japanese "Postal Fund"( a type of retirement fund) now has over 11 Trillion U.S. dollars in it and some of the funds investments are at muturity. The article stated the dilemma faced by the Japanese fund managers was; be patriotic and re-invest in very low yielding Japanese Government debt,(under 2%) or re-invest in percieved safe foreign Government debt that when bought at discount paid up to 6%.(U.S.)

My Comment:
If these fund managers would take some charts, like some on this forum have, and figure in currency de-valuation over time(all issued paper money) in relation to real products prices and actual costs of production, they may want to invest in something other than paper debt. It is my humble opinion physical Gold, at this point in time may appriciate in buying power at a faster rate than low yeilding Government debt vehicles in the near future, but unfortunately fund managers only look to numerical rates of return on investments.

Case in point:
Some months ago I posted here at USAGOLD a partial list of mutual funds that combined had hundreds of millions of dollars invested in Gold mining shares. All these funds had one thing in common over the last 20 years....The dollar values of the funds had diminished, some by as much as 95%. I wrote a sample letter here and sent a similar respectful letter to one of the Gold mutual funds I have an interest in urging them to change the bylaws of the fund to include physical Gold in their Gold investment portfolios. The reason being if the Gold mining industry totally collapsed because of a low Gold price at least investors would still have physical Gold left in the investment fund.

Although the response was cordial, they made a lame excuse that it would take a company by-law change to do this, and they didn't want to change the by-laws.

Now for the real reason they don't want to change by-laws. These fund managers extract their wages from the funds they manage! A small amount of Gold in the vault does not produce any interest or dividend income, that's why!

Lets go a step further and suppose some smart Japanese Postal Fund manager wanted the safest possible investment and a decent rate of return. Couldn't he/she buy a good amount of physical Gold, when rollover time comes, than use that Gold as collateral to borrow at a low interest rate from a Japanese bank(1%) than use the old Yen carry trade to invest the newly borrowed money at a higher rate(5-6%)buying U.S Govt. debt.
Does this sound too complicated?

Well, the fund would be getting the usual 4% to 5% return on investment but would also have the added insurance of physical Gold included in the investment portfolio. Tonnes of Gold imported into Japan would also strengthen the value of the Yen and as an added bonus if the fund managers decided to act in unison couldn't they cause a worldwide shortage of physical Gold forcing the POG higher, and at the same time increasing the value of the fund they're managing?
Wishful Thinking.....beesting.

justamereBear
(04/13/2001; 23:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 51837)
SolomonWeaver 51829 Belgian 51826 OldYellar51798

SolomonWeaver 51829
A masterful job of a practical lesson in the Japanese verb of being, "WA". No one who has not lived there (and many who have) can comprehend how this concept can translate into the concept of foreign, and degrees of foreign-ness. Few could understand why there is a language (alphabet) solely for foreigners, or for referring to foreigners and/or foreign things. Or how and why "little gift" came from the historical difficulty, until VERY recent years, of travel from one side of the mountain to another, and how that is bound up in that verb of being, and of foreigner.

I fear, and certainly in my own experience, it is impossible to convey accurately the Japanese method of thinking about foreigners, to "foreigners." (not that I believe I understand the thinking) It is like trying to describe the color red to someone who is, and always has been blind. There are no common points of reference. Unfortunately, also, many foreigners insist that their method of thinking is the only logical one, and therefore the Japanese must subscribe to this and so philosophy. Few indeed of these foreigners have NEVER made a mistake before. However they cannot believe that a different method of thinking is possible, and therefore they must be right.

Belgian 51826
It is a common misconception in North America,that gold is quoted around the world in dollar terms. In Japan, gold is quoted in Yen per gram.

It has been a while since I spent much time in China. I am not sure of the effect of recent changes, but the Yuan, and the Renmimbi were 2 different things. One was an internal currency, only for use by locals, and if you took some away, you would understand the dangers of Fiat money. You could not even take it down to the local chinese bank, or consulate, or anywhere else, and exchange it for ANYTHING. The other currency was for use by foriegners, and or in, for example, foreign trade transactions. The government used this method to control both the foreign trade and the currency rates. Converting one currency to the other was strictly under the control of the governmwent. Locally, in all but the state run stores, foreign currencies, such as the US dollar, or the HK dollar, were tops in purchasing power, after all the conversion math was done, then came the "foreign Chinese currency" followed by the bottom of the heap, the "local currency". (which, theoretically, foreigners were not allowed to possess or spend)(the last time I spent more tahn a couple of days there was in the run up to Tianamen Square-1989)

OldYellar 51798
Yes, I think Bush did back down a bit, not as much as I read your post to imply, but a bit. The US is in a no win situation here, IMHO. It is my opinion that the Chinese, in an extreme situation, are willing to fill the Formosa Strait with bodies and simply walk across. (as memory serves, it is only a mile or so wide at the narrow point.) Bush is not in a position to rally the American populace to such a level of death over the abstract of Taiwan, and the Chinese know it. What does Taiwan provide for the US? If they had oil, or something similiar, maybe. Sure, a nuke or 2 will get a fair number of them, but so they lose 1 or 2 or 5% of the population. What is the population of China now? Something over a billion as I recall. Thats a 1 followed by 9 zeros. 1% would be a 1 followed by 7 zeros. 10,000,000. Such a loss would merely relieve the housing shortage, not even eliminate it. It would not do anything for the population pressure. And, in Taiwan, the US has one VERY LOONNNGGGG supply line, which many generals have learned is a key item in any battle. For the sake of argument, say the US could win. Do the have the stomache or capacity to pay the price of winning? And what exactly would they win? Would it be worth it? I think Bush realizes that he is in a political minefield here.

j'Bear

Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/14/2001; 06:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 51854)
Black Blade - good to see you back
Sir BB

Sort of missed your posts lately. I often reflect on how you have kept us ahead of the curve on the energy issue. All news on the energy front is simply history for us.

I just couldn't help but post the following from the ladies with